MONTREAL PROTOCOL 

ON SUBSTANCES THAT DEPLETE 

THE OZONE LAYER 

UNEP 

Technology and Economic Assessment Panel 

SUPPLEMENT TO THE

IPCC/ TEAP REPORT

November 2005 

iii

SUPPLEMENT TO THE

IPCC/ TEAP REPORT

November 2005 
iv 

DISCLAIMER 

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Technology and Economic 

Assessment Panel (TEAP) co-chairs and members, the Technical and Economic 

Options Committee, chairs, co-chairs and members, the TEAP Task Forces co-chairs 

and members, and the companies and organisations that employ them do not endorse 

the performance, worker safety, or environmental acceptability of any of the technical 

options discussed. Every industrial operation requires consideration of worker safety 

and proper disposal of contaminants and waste products. Moreover, as work 

continues - including additional toxicity evaluation - more information on health, 

environmental and safety effects of alternatives and replacements will become 

available for use in selecting among the options discussed in this document. 

UNEP, the TEAP co-chairs and members, the Technical and Economic Options 

Committee, chairs, co-chairs and members, and the Technology and Economic 

Assessment Panel Task Forces co-chairs and members, in furnishing or distributing 

the information that follows, do not make any warranty or representation, either 

express or implied, with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or utility; nor do they 

assume any liability of any kind whatsoever resulting from the use or reliance upon 

any information, material, or procedure contained herein. 

The text of this report is composed in Times New Roman. 

Co-ordination: TEAP and its TFSRS Task Force

Composition: Lambert Kuijpers 

Reproduction: UNON Nairobi 

Date: November 2005 

 

ISBN: 92-807-2733-8 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 

The UNEP Technology and Economic Assessment Panel and the Task Force on the 

Supplement to the Special Report (TFSRS) co-chairs and members wish to express 

thanks to all who contributed from governments, both Article 5(1) and non-Article 

5(1), to IPCC members in their personal capacity, and to a number of individuals 

involved in Protocol issues, without whose involvement this supplementary report to 

the original assessment would not have been possible. 

The opinions expressed are those of the Panel and its Task Forces and do not 

necessarily reflect the reviews of any sponsoring or supporting organisation. 
v

Table of Contents 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................VII

1 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................................1

1.1 REMIT.................................................................................................................................................1

1.2 TASK FORCE .......................................................................................................................................2

1.3 THE STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT ........................................................................................................2

2 DESCRIPTION OF SECTORS, EMISSION SOURCES AND METHODS OF ASSESSMENT .....5

2.1 SECTORS AND SOURCES.......................................................................................................................5

2.2 BOTTOM-UP METHODS AND THE CHALLENGE OF ASSESSING ACTIVITY DATA .......................................8

2.3 ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS AND DERIVED EMISSIONS (IPCC TEAP, 2005) .............................11

3 DEMAND, BANKS AND EMISSIONS IN A BAU SCENARIO, HISTORIC DATA AND 2015 

EMISSIONS ............................................................................................................................................15

3.1 ASSUMPTIONS BAU SCENARIO .........................................................................................................15

3.2 DEMAND, BANKS AND EMISSIONS PER SUBSTANCE AND PER SECTOR .................................................15

3.2.1. General observations .................................................................................................................15

3.2.2 Specific observations related to the 2002 banks .......................................................................20

3.2.3 2015 Business-As-Usual projections for banks..........................................................................20

3.2.4 2015 Business-As-Usual projections for emissions....................................................................21

4 DEMAND, BANKS AND EMISSIONS IN A MIT SCENARIO, COMPARISON OF 2015 BAU 

AND MIT.................................................................................................................................................27

4.1 ASSUMPTIONS MIT SCENARIO ..........................................................................................................27

4.2 DEMAND, BANKS AND EMISSIONS PER SUBSTANCE AND PER SECTOR .................................................27

4.2.1 Difference between 2015 Business-As-Usual and Mitigation projections for banks..................27

4.2.2 Difference between 2015 Business-As-Usual and Mitigation projections for emissions............29

4.2.3 Graphical presentation of the 2015 Business-As-Usual and Mitigation projections for banks 

and emissions.............................................................................................................................30

5 MITIGATION COSTS...........................................................................................................................35

5.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................35

5.2 DESCRIPTION OF MITIGATION COSTS FOR THE REFRIGERATION/AC SECTOR.......................................37

5.3 DESCRIPTION OF MITIGATION COSTS FOR THE FOAM SECTOR .............................................................38

5.4 DESCRIPTION OF MITIGATION COSTS FOR HALON SECTOR ..................................................................39

6 IMPACTS ON OZONE LAYER RECOVERY ...................................................................................41

7 DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN EMISSIONS DETERMINED FROM BOTTOM-UP 

METHODS AND FROM ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS......................................................47

7.1 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONSUMPTION.....................................................................47

7.2 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EMISSION FACTORS..............................................................49

7.3 RECONCILING THE DISCREPANCIES....................................................................................................51

8 CONCLUDING REMARKS..................................................................................................................53

9 REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................55

10 ANNEXES ...............................................................................................................................................57

KEY TO THE TABLES

DETAILED TABLES ON DEMAND, BANKS AND EMISSION DATA 2002-2015 

GRAPHS ON DEMAND, BANKS AND EMISSION DATA 2002-2015

vii

 Executive Summary 

At the twenty-fifth meeting of the Open-ended Working Group (Montreal, 27-

30 June, 2005), the EC, Norway, New Zealand and UK tabled a paper 

containing two proposals, which were endorsed by the Open-ended Working 

Group: 

 To recommend that further consideration of the IPCC/TEAP Special 

Report is placed on the agenda for the Seventeenth Meeting of the Parties. 

 To request TEAP to provide, by 31 October 2005, a supplementary report 

to the Seventeenth Meeting of the Parties that elaborates clearly the ozone 

depletion implications of the issues raised in the Special Report. In 

particular, the report should estimate current and projected levels of 

ozone-depleting substances contained and emitted from banks, expressed 

as ODP tonnes; project atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting 

substances under the "Mitigation" and “Business as Usual” scenarios 

that appear in the Special Report, and their associated impact on the 

ozone layer; estimate costs of mitigation measures described in the report 

in cost per ODP tonne. 

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons, and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) 

being phased out under the Montreal Protocol contribute to ozone depletion 

and climate change, while hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons 

(PFCs) controlled under the United Nations Framework Convention on 

Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol contribute only to climate change. 

About 20% of ODSs have been or are being replaced with 

hydrofluorocarbons, which generally have Global Warming Potentials 

(GWPs) that are significantly lower than the GWPs of the ODSs they replace 

and are in many cases better contained and more likely to be recovered during 

servicing or at end-of-life. 

The IPCC/TEAP Special Report describes the banks and emissions in all 

relevant sectors in kg CO2 equivalent, this being the typical way emissions are 

considered for determining global warming impacts. This Supplement to the 

Special Report more clearly presents the impacts on the ozone layer from the 

viewpoint of emissions reductions, expressed in ODP tonnes. 

The scope of the Special Report itself is limited to the sectors and applications 

that have used HFCs or PFCs as substitutes for ODSs. Since HFCs have only 

been used to replace approximately 20% of the previous ODS consumption, 

and PFC use has been limited to a minority of specialist applications, there are 

some former ODS-consuming sectors that have used little or no HFCs and 

hence are not included within the scope of the Special Report. This means 

that historic emissions of ODSs, assessed by using bottom-up methods per 

sector in the Special Report, do not represent a complete assessment of the 

historic ODS emissions. Accordingly, there is an inevitable systematic error 
viii

arising from comparison with emissions derived from atmospheric 

measurements. However, the applications in which ODS banks have been 

generated (fire protection, rigid insulating foam, refrigeration and air 

conditioning) are also those, which have adopted HFCs as significant 

substitutes and hence are included within the Special Report. This means that 

bank assessments are likely to be reasonably complete. 

A further source of systematic error is the lack of information on use patterns 

of ODSs in Article 5(1) countries, resulting in it being difficult to establish 

whether emissions in these regions are prompt (less than 1 year) or spread 

over a longer period. 

In parallel, random errors can emerge because of, for example, uncertainties 

over the statistical distribution of life cycles. Most bottom-up models 

function by using average life-times to determine the likely timing of 

emissions. Accordingly, random errors can occur, particularly when the 

assessment period is short (e.g. one year). 

The results of these uncertainties are that the emissions estimates derived from 

the aggregation of bottom-up assessments are not always consistent with 

emissions estimates derived from atmospheric concentrations. However, the 

use of several sources of information, including bottom-up estimates, reported 

production and use data, plus atmospheric measurements mean that trends can 

be clearly established, which give confidence in the information presented in 

the Special Report and further reported in this Supplement. Additional work 

will be required to further characterise the sources of these errors in order to 

further improve confidence levels. 

 

The emissions of the major banked chemicals in fire protection, refrigeration 

and air conditioning equipment occur primarily during the use phase, 

reflecting the more dynamic nature of the use-phase for such equipment and 

the need for routine servicing. For rigid insulating foam, emissions are much 

more focused during initial processing and, particularly, at end-of-life. In all 

cases, the management of the decommissioning process at end-of-life is a key 

determinant in ultimate emission levels. 

The Supplement Report sets out the key elements of the Business-As-Usual 

(BAU) case used in the Special Report and highlights key differences by 

sector and by region. The assessment elaborates the fact that current ODS 

recovery rates vary significantly by sector and that, within a given sector, 

recovery rates tend to be significantly lower in Article 5(1) countries than in 

non-Article 5(1) countries. 

This assessment reveals that, in ODP tonnage terms, 70% (1,820 ODP 

ktonnes) of all banked CFC and HCFC chemicals (excluding halons) were 

situated in non-Article 5(1) countries in 2002. With the ongoing emission of 
ix

ozone depleting substances in the period until 2015, all banks are expected to 

decrease. There is a huge amount of chemicals banked in foams in nonArticle 5(1) countries. Because of the more rapid emissions from 

refrigeration and air conditioning equipment and the lack of slower emitting 

foams in Article 5(1) countries, the proportion of the global bank in nonArticle 5(1) countries is therefore expected to increase in ODP terms by 2015 

(to 75% or about 1,660 ODP ktonnes). Nevertheless, the total, global, ODS 

bank is expected to dcrease from 2,600 ODP ktonnes in 2002 to 2,200 ODP 

ktonnes in 2015. 

Nevertheless, the increasing use of HCFCs in Article 5(1) countries could 

delay the rate of recovery of the ozone layer and increase the quantity of 

banked HCFCs from 37 ODP ktonnes in 2002 to 126 ODP ktonnes in 2015 

under the BAU scenario. 

The Mitigation Scenario in the Special Report estimated the additional 

reductions in ODSs and the use of their HFC (and PFC) substitutes that can be 

achieved by the year 2015 with technically feasible actions beyond those 

currently required by the Montreal Protocol. The Special Report focused on 

the climate benefits of such actions by presenting the results in terms of 

greenhouse gas units of measure (carbon dioxide equivalents). This 

Supplement Report presents the Mitigation Scenario emission reduction in 

terms of ozone units of measure (ODP tonnes). 

In the refrigeration and air conditioning sector, several potential measures will 

be introduced progressively in the period to 2015 and will have an impact on 

emission patterns, even after phasing out the use of ODSs in new equipment. 

This also relates to specific servicing practices, such as recharging for 

leakage, particularly in Article 5(1) countries, where ODS (CFC) based 

equipment is still abundant. If measures will be implemented in the last phase 

of the ODS phase-out process, their main impact will be on the level of future 

HFC emissions in preference to ODSs. The main mitigation strategies likely 

to have effect on ODS emissions in the mid-term (e.g., as of 2008) are those 

associated with end-of-life measures in refrigeration and (mobile and 

stationary) air conditioning. Recovery and possible destruction may have a 

significant impact on the level of emissions released from the banks. 

The slow emission rate from foams means that measures considered in the 

Mitigation Scenario will have a limited effect by 2015, although there could 

be incremental benefits for many years to follow. Although the Special 

Report dealt with these dynamics tangentially (foam emission reductions were 

projected to 2100), there was no systematic quantification of emission 

abatement over such a long period. 

As mitigation strategies are more widely researched, demonstrated and 

commercially practised, there will be increasing precision in assessing 
x

specific mitigation costs. However, extreme care needs to be exercised in 

applying these data to other areas. Local factors such as practical accessibility 

and transport logistics can have substantial effects on the practicality and 

economics of recovery and destruction. In some instances (e.g. halons), it 

may also be important to leave banks available for future recycling and 

critical use. 

The best estimate in the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002 (WMO, 

2003) projected the return of the Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine 

(EESC) to 1980 values in the year 2044, assuming full compliance with the 

Montreal Protocol. However, bank estimates in (WMO, 2003) are generally 

lower than in the Special Report. The same calculation using the banks of 

CFCs and HCFCs as estimated in this Supplement Report shows this return to 

1980 values being delayed until 2046. If the further emissions from servicing 

refrigeration and AC equipment, occurring in the interim, are taken into 

account, the return of the EESC to 1980 values levels is estimated to be 

delayed by up to another two years at maximum (2048). Destruction of all 

banks in refrigeration and AC equipment as of 2008 (at end-of- life) could 

result in an estimated return of the EESC to 1980 values around the year 2046. 

Management of foam banks would also serve to accelerate the recovery of the 

ozone layer, but quantification of this impact is difficult because much of the 

emission from foam in buildings could take place at end-of-life in the period 

between 2035 and 2050. 

This Supplement Report provides some examples of mitigation costs, points 

out the limitations on the use of this information, and highlights that the costeffectiveness of mitigation measures may depend substantially on whether 

policy makers consider the co-benefits of ODS recovery and greenhouse gas 

emission abatement. It is self-evident that, if these values are combined (not 

always a strictly additive process), the cost-effectiveness criteria could be 

satisfied in local circumstances where individual analyses might have dictated 

otherwise. 

In Article 5(1) countries, the current collection and recovery costs are likely to 

be greater than in non-Article 5(1) countries owing to the lack of 

infrastructure. Indeed, end-of-life concepts are very different in Article 5(1) 

countries from the ones in non-Article 5(1) countries and the degree of re-use 

is generally much higher. 
1

1 Introduction 

1.1 Remit 

Following a discussion on the IPCC/TEAP Special Report "Safeguarding the 

Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System: Issues related to 

Hydrofluorocarbons and Perfluorocarbons” at the Twenty-fifth meeting of the 

Open-ended Working Group (Montreal, 27-30 June, 2005), the EC, Norway, 

New Zealand, and UK tabled a CRP.8, where the first two paragraphs read as 

follows: 

 To recommend that further consideration of the IPCC/TEAP Special 

Report is placed on the agenda for the Seventeenth Meeting of the Parties. 

 To request TEAP to provide, by 31 October 2005, a supplementary report 

to the Seventeenth Meeting of the Parties that elaborates clearly the ozone 

depletion implications of the issues raised in the Special Report. In 

particular, the report should estimate current and projected levels of 

ozone-depleting substances contained and emitted from banks, expressed 

as ODP tonnes; project atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting 

substances under the "Mitigation" and “Business as Usual” scenarios 

that appear in the Special Report, and their associated impact on the 

ozone layer; estimate costs of mitigation measures described in the report 

in cost per ODP tonne. 

Following a discussion on the issue, the Open-ended Working Group agreed 

(1) to recommend that further consideration of the IPCC/TEAP Special 

Report be placed on the agenda for the Seventeenth Meeting of the Parties and 

(2) to request TEAP to provide, by 31 October 2005, a Supplementary Report 

to the Seventeenth Meeting of the Parties that elaborates clearly the ozonedepletion implications of information already in the Special Report by 

presenting it in terms of ozone-depleting potential and costs per ODP tonne. 

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), halons, and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) 

being phased out under the Montreal Protocol contribute to ozone depletion 

and climate change, while hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons 

(PFCs) controlled under the United Nations Framework Convention on 

Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol contribute only to climate change. 

About 20% of ODSs are replaced with hydrofluorocarbons that generally have 

Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) that are significantly lower than the 

GWPs of the ODSs they replace and are better contained and more likely 

recovered at service. Furthermore, climate protection benefits are achieved 

during the ODS phase-out because refrigeration and air conditioning 

engineers use the necessity of change to thoroughly redesign systems, 

resulting in better efficiency, better reliability and better overall value for 

consumers. 
2

The IPCC/TEAP Report describes the banks and emissions in all relevant 

sectors in kg CO2-equivalent, this being the typical way emissions are 

considered for determining global warming impacts. This supplement to the 

Special Report more clearly presents the impacts on the ozone layer from 

emissions and emissions reductions, expressed in ODP tonnes. 

1.2 Task Force 

Following the meeting of the Open-ended Working Group, June 2005, TEAP 

established a Task Force on the Supplement to the Special Report (TFSRS), 

co-chaired by Lambert Kuijpers, Paul Ashford and Roberto Peixoto and 

consisting of: 

 Stephen. O. Andersen (USA, co-chair TEAP, member Steering Committee 

Special Report); 

 Paul Ashford (UK, co-chair FTOC, member TEAP, CLA Special Report); 

 Nick Campbell (UK, member MTOC, CLA Special Report); 

 Denis Clodic (France, member RTOC, CLA Special Report)

 Sukumar Devotta (India, member RTOC, CLA Special Report); 

 David de Jager (The Netherlands, former TSU for the Special Report); 

 Suzanne Kocchi (USA, member FTOC, LA Special Report); 

 Lambert Kuijpers (The Netherlands, co-chair TEAP, co-chair RTOC, 

member Steering Committee Special Report); 

 Roberto Peixoto (Brazil, member RTOC, CLA Special Report) 

 Jose Pons Pons (Venezuela, co-chair TEAP, co-chair MTOC, member 

Steering Committee Special Report); 

 Guus Velders (The Netherlands, CLA Special Report); and 

 Dan Verdonik (USA, member TEAP, co-chair HTOC, CLA Special 

Report). 

Drafts were produced via email-circulation; a final review was carried out by 

the TFSRS Task Force during the week of 7-11 November 2005. After this 

review, this report was considered and subsequently adopted by consensus of 

the UNEP Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP) as 

established under the Montreal Protocol. 

1.3 The Structure of the Report 

The structure of this Supplement to the IPCC/TEAP Report is as given below. 

In individual chapters, particularly in chapters 3 and 4, the data that are 

contained in the Special Report are updated and converted to ODP ktonnes. 

Chapter 1, “Introduction”, presents the remit, the setting up of the Task Force 

and the process followed in preparing this report. 

Chapter 2, “Description of sectors”, describes sectors and emission sources, 

looks at the phase in the life-time of a product when emissions mainly occur. 

It presents an overview of the present status of bottom-up methods for 
3

refrigeration and the uncertainties involved in the determination of banks and 

emissions. It also gives some information derived from (IPCC TEAP, 2005) 

on the determination of emissions from annual measurements of atmospheric 

concentrations. 

Chapter 3, “BAU Scenario”, looks at the demand, banks and emissions in a 

Business as Usual scenario for the period 2002-2015. The assumptions for 

determining banks and emissions in this scenario are given. It also gives the 

relevant data on the development of the banks and related emissions (tables 

with all the data and bar chart graphs can be found in the Annex to this 

report). Demand, banks and emissions are considered for the world-total, and 

both for the non-Article 5(1) and the Article 5(1) countries. This yields 

insight on the percentage release from banks in different regions of the world, 

where banks (and emissions) may be completely different in composition. 

Chapter 4, “MIT Scenario”, looks at the demand, banks and emissions in a 

Mitigation scenario. The assumptions as used in the mitigation scenario are 

given, which scenario is characterised by the same banks and emissions as the 

Business-As- Usual scenario in the year 2002 (tables with all the data and bar 

chart graphs can be found in the Annex to this report). A comparison is made 

between the size of the banks and the level of emissions in the Business-AsUsual and the Mitigation scenario in the year 2015. 

Chapter 5, “Mitigation Costs”, describes the costs for the mitigation of 

refrigeration, foams and halon emissions. Mitigation in this context means 

that emissions of ODS should not have an impact on the recovery of the ozone 

layer. 

Chapter 6, “Impacts on the Recovery of the Ozone Layer”, describes the 

impact of emissions on the ozone and is based on the same considerations as 

chapter 2 in (IPCC TEAP, 2005). 

Chapter 7, “Discrepancies between Emissions Determined”, presents 

discrepancies between emissions determined from bottom-up methods and 

from atmospheric measurements. It looks at the relevance of the types and the 

levels of emissions, as well as at the relevance of the timing of the emissions 

and emission reductions. 

Chapter 8 gives “ Concluding Remarks”. 

In the Annex tables and bar charts are given of the demand, the banks and 

emissions for the years 2002 and 2015. These are expressed in ktonne 

product, in ktonne CO2-equivalent and in ODP ktonne. 

5

2 Description of sectors, emission sources and methods of 

assessment 

2.1 Sectors and sources 

Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) and their substitutes have been or are 

being used in a wide range of products and processes that are already well 

known to the ozone community. These include refrigeration and air 

conditioning equipment, medical and technical aerosols, rigid and flexible 

foams, fire protection equipment, solvents, intermediates and process agents. 

The IPCC/TEAP Special Report deals only with those products and processes, 

which have selected HFCs or PFCs as full or partial substitutes for ODSs. 

Hence the main chapters of that Report have focused on refrigeration and air 

conditioning (chapters 4-6), rigid foams (chapter 7), medical aerosols (chapter 

8) and fire protection (chapter 9). Technical aerosols and specialist solvent 

uses have also been covered (chapter 10), but to a lesser degree, reflecting the 

lower levels of use of HFCs and PFCs as substitutes. An important 

consequence of this scope is that the Special Report is not a comprehensive 

treatise on the sources of all ODSs used historically (although the atmospheric 

science inevitably covers all sources). Accordingly, there is no substantive 

coverage of sectors such as non-technical aerosols that no longer depend on 

fluorocarbons despite their widespread use in the second half of the 20th 

century and their undeniable impact on the ozone layer. 

Since this Supplementary Report is to mirror the scope of the Special Report 

itself, it too does not cover all contributions to ODS emissions except within 

the atmospheric science discussion (section 2.3). Although this may seem an 

incomplete approach, it so happens that the sectors leading to future ODS 

emissions are typically the same sectors as those leading to future HFC and 

PFC emissions. This is particularly the case for refrigeration, air conditioning 

and rigid foams where much of the future ODS emission will occur from 

banks of refrigerant and blowing agent already accrued. As noted in the 

Special Report, most of these substances (or by-products released during 

manufacture) are greenhouse gases (GHGs), the emission of which will result 

in a contribution to the direct positive forcing of climate. Direct emissions of 

GHGs may occur during the manufacture of these substances, during the use 

of these substances in products and processes, and at the end of the life of the 

products containing these substances. 

Indirect GHG emissions of applications of ODS and their replacements are the 

GHG emissions related to the energy consumption (fuels and electricity) 

during the complete lifecycle of the application (this effect is in addition to 

the indirect negative radiative forcing of ODSs discussed previously). 

Dependent on the characteristics of the energy system, indirect GHG 

emissions may be significant as compared to direct GHG emissions, up to an 

order of magnitude larger than the direct GHG emissions considered in this 
6

report. As most indirect GHG emissions are related to the use-phase of the 

applications concerned, energy efficiency improvements can often result in 

significantly greater reductions in total GHG emissions than those generated 

from a focus solely on reducing direct GHG emissions. This again depends 

on the specific energy system characteristics. 

The Special Report notes that the UNFCCC addresses anthropogenic 

emissions by sources, and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not 

controlled by the Montreal Protocol, i.e. carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous 

oxide, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and 

sulphurhexafluoride (SF6). The Montreal Protocol, on the other hand, 

controls not the emission but rather the production and consumption of ozone 

depleting substances. Thus, the emissions due to releases of CFCs and 

HCFCs present in banks (e.g. refrigeration equipment, foams) are not covered 

in either the Montreal Protocol or Climate Convention. These emissions, if 

uncontrolled, will make a significant future contribution to global warming, 

and have relevance to the predicted recovery of the ozone layer. The 

emissions from banks thus are linked to tradeoffs and are a component of a 

balanced assessment of each sector included in this report. 

HFCs and PFCs are now seldom used in aerosol, solvent, open-celled foam 

and other applications where they are emitted immediately. In general, the 

uses are focused on those applications where additional benefit can be gained 

by their presence (e.g. for product safety, or thermal efficiency). This is partly 

driven by the cost of these materials and partly by the recognition of the 

environmental imperative to avoid emitting gases with high global warming 

potential unnecessarily. Accordingly, a study of the sectors in which they are 

now used not only relies on a knowledge of the production and consumption 

of a chemical, but also on knowing the life cycle of the application in order to 

determine whether emission will occur and, if so, when. This will vary 

significantly between sectors and even between applications within sectors. 

For instance, foam insulation used in buildings can have an expected lifetime 

of 50 years or more. Since most of the emission, if it not prevented, will 

occur at the end-of-life of the foam, there can be substantial delays in 

emission which need to be factored into the atmospheric projections for ozone 

recovery, as well as for climate change. Indeed, the time-related implications 

of emissions may have a greater effect on ozone recovery than on climate 

change because of the catalytic role of chlorine in the degradation of 

stratospheric ozone. 

Within the Special Report, the approach taken to time-dependence was not 

totally uniform. In general, projections and the impact of possible mitigation 

measures were assessed at 2015 and compared against the position understood 

for 2002. Typically, the trends for intervening years were not mapped and 

projections beyond 2015 were discouraged because of legitimate concerns 

over the reliability of consumption data beyond this date. However, for 
7

applications such as foams, it was recognised that a 15 year time-frame was 

too short to reflect life-cycle implications of emissions arising from the use of 

CFCs, which may have already taken place as far back as 1965 and which 

continue for HCFCs and HFCs now and in the future. Accordingly, the foams 

chapter in the Special Report extended its purview to 2100 in order to capture 

the dynamics of on-going emissions. This is an equally important facet for 

this Supplementary Report, bearing in mind the significant ODS banks that 

remain in foams at this time. However, in keeping with a Business-As-Usual 

and a Mitigation scenario as presented in the Special Report, this report does 

not specifically calculate the impact of ODS emissions from foam out to 2100. 

An additional distinction for some applications (e.g. refrigeration and fire 

protection) is that equipment is serviced and replenished during its life-time. 

This creates a further use and emission pattern through the life of the 

equipment, which, in many cases, can be more significant than the initial 

charges when the equipment is manufactured. Table 2-1 summarises the 

distinctive aspects of each of the key applications covered in the Special 

Report. 

One other emission source, which would deserve some consideration in this 

Supplementary Report, is the inadvertent creation and release of HFC-23 as a 

by-product of HCFC-22 production. HFC-23 has a significant global 

warming potential and its emission is linked to the strategies being adopted 

under the Montreal Protocol to curb ultimate demand for HCFCs in Article 

5(1) countries, which are again directly related to future HCFC-22 emissions. 

Although mitigation of HFC-23 release is technically possible and 

economically attractive under the UNFCCC Clean Development Mechanism 

(CDM), the availability of funds through the sale of CDM credits obtained 

from the reduction of HFC-23 emissions could provide a perverse incentive 

for the continuation or expansion of HCFC-22 production in Article 5(1) 

countries in order to generate such credits. However, the discussion on this 

issue under the CDM is still ongoing and will be further dealt with at the 

upcoming UNFCCC COP-11 in Montreal, December 2005. Once this 

production and emission issue has been resolved there, the whole may need 

further consideration under the Montreal Protocol. 
8

Table 2-1 Distinctive aspects of current ODS and GHG emissions by key sectors 

described in the IPCC/TEAP Special Report

Life Cycle Phases of Emission* Sector Typical 

Gases Production/1st Year Use Phase 

(incl. Servicing) 

End-of-Life 

 (incl. waste streams) 

 

Refrigeration 

CFC-12, 

HCFC-22, 

HFC-134a 

HFC/HCFC 

blends 

Factory controlled 

– usually low level 

Higher level 

dependent on 

frequency of 

servicing & 

practices 

Maximum of one 

charge still to be 

recovered or emitted 

Stationary 

A/C 

CFC-12 

HCFC-22 

HFC-134a 

HFC/HCFC 

blends 

Factory controlled 

– usually low level 

Higher level 

dependent on 

frequency of 

servicing & 

practices 

Maximum of one 

charge still to be 

recovered or emitted 

Mobile A/C 

CFC-12 

HCFC-22 

(buses etc.) 

HFC-134a 

Factory controlled 

– usually low level 

Higher level 

dependent on 

frequency of 

servicing & 

practices 

Maximum of one 

charge still to be 

recovered or emitted 

Rigid Foams 

CFC-11 

CFC-12 

HCFC-141b 

HCFC-142b 

HFC-134a 

HFC-245fa 

HFC-365mfc 

Losses are low 

where factorycontrolled but can 

be higher for onsite application 

(e.g. spray foam) 

Closed cell 

nature of foams 

makes losses in 

this phase low 

despite long 

life-time 

Bulk of loss likely to 

occur at this phase 

unless 

recovery/destruction 

practised. Long-lived 

emissions from 

products disposed in 

landfills 

Fire 

Protection 

Halon 1211 

Halon 1301 

HFC-23 

HFC-227ea 

FK 5-1-12 

Factory controlled 

– usually low level 

Higher level 

dependent on 

frequency of 

servicing & 

testing practices 

Maximum of one 

charge still to be 

recovered or emitted 

Medical 

Aerosols 

CFC-11 

CFC-12 

CFC-114 

HFC-134a 

HFC-227ea

Emission only 

delayed by length 

of time held in 

stock 

Not applicable Not applicable 

Other Uses 

CFC-12 

CFC-113 

HCFC-142b 

HCFC-141b 

HFC-365mfc 

Most likely to be 

used in closed 

loops and may be 

recovered 

Slow loss over 

time and may 

need 

replenishment 

Destruction 

techniques required 

for spent materials 

* Shaded cells denote most significant sources of emission. 

 

2.2 Bottom-up methods and the challenge of assessing activity data 

When seeking to assess emissions, it is generally necessary to develop an 

understanding of use patterns and emission profiles for each use within a 
9

sector over its respective lifecycle. This can be quite a complex process 

depending on the sector considered. 

By way of example, refrigerating equipment displays a wide variety of system 

types, since use of refrigeration and air conditioning systems is very 

widespread. The quality of the bottom-up method depends on good activity 

(consumption or use) data. The sources of such data will depend on the nature 

of the equipment and a series of possible approaches are presented in turn 

(Ashford et al., 2004a and 2004c). 

(1) Stand-alone mass manufactured units 

For domestic refrigerators (including freezers), air-to-air AC systems, and 

chillers, annual statistical data are available and are issued either by 

manufacturer associations or by specialised companies. Those data on annual 

equipment sales allow the production and sale figures to be derived at the 

national level for nearly all the OECD countries. For a given year at the global 

level, the production of mass-produced equipment equals sales, if inventories 

do not change. Based on this equality, and taking into account economic 

factors such as GDP and GNP, it is possible to derive national markets of 

countries for which equipment statistics are not available. Once the annual 

production and markets are derived for all countries, the type of refrigerant is 

determined according to regulation and manufacturer choices. Refrigerant 

charges are defined depending on the refrigerating capacity. Past years are 

derived for the typical lifetime of that equipment, which varies between 10 to 

25 years, depending on the country. Emission factors are also determined by 

equipment type and country specific circumstances. 

(2) Integral parts of other mass manufactured units 

No direct statistics are available for mobile air conditioning systems or 

refrigeration, but a large number of data are available for the annual market 

and production of cars, trucks, light commercial vehicles (LCVs), and buses 

in different reference sources. A ratio of the number of vehicles equipped 

with air-conditioning systems referred to the total number of vehicles is 

applied on a year-by-year basis taking into account possible rapid change in 

vehicle equipment. From the average lifetime of cars, and of AC systems, the 

bank of refrigerant is calculated (merging all charges in the total fleet of 

vehicles). Assuming likely emission rate and the bank, the annual servicing 

market is determined, and then the total refrigerant emissions including endof-life emissions and fugitive emissions. The refrigerant recovery is 

determined from knowledge of the volumes of equipment processed and is 

adjusted for recovery efficiency. 

 
10

(3) Purpose-built commercial systems 

The steps for assessing emissions from commercial refrigeration units can be 

more data intensive and usually involve: 

(i) the derivation of the activity data for each type of refrigerant from a 

combination of refrigerant sales data and knowledge of equipment 

types and their population 

(ii) the application of appropriate emission and recovery factors. 

For retail outlets, the method chosen is typically based on food sales area 

surfaces, which are the only data that can be found at the global level for both 

non-Article 5(1) and Article 5(1) countries. Emissions in past years are 

estimated for the typical lifetime of the respective equipment types, which 

vary between 7 and 15 years depending on the country. The percentage of the 

refrigerant charge, which is emitted before servicing is used in order to define 

the refrigerant recharge frequency. The lifetimes of supermarkets and 

hypermarkets are typically longer than 7 years. However, the remodelling 

frequency averages 7 years for non-Article 5(1) countries. This has to be 

taken into account because it implies significant modifications to the 

refrigerating circuits, which can lead to large refrigerant emissions depending 

on the recovery efficiency. Further details on the methodology applied can be 

found in (Ashford et al., 2004c). A further treatment of uncertainties in the 

refrigeration sector is included in Chapter 7. 

In contrast to refrigeration where additional use of substances can occur 

throughout the lifecycle during servicing, the only point of CFC, HCFC, or 

HFC use for a foam is at the time of its manufacture. Although the 

manufacturers of foam can also be small and highly dispersed businesses (cf 

>5,000 spray foam contractors in the US alone), the bulk of blowing agent use 

takes place in controlled factory environments which can be surveyed 

relatively easily through trade associations and by direct contact. Even in the 

case of the fragmented spray foam market, usage can often be characterised 

through a series of ‘systems houses’ which act as formulators for the industry 

and effectively ‘consume’ at the point of formulation. 

This ability to determine, with some accuracy, the use of blowing agent at 

foam manufacturing level introduces an important cross-check to the 

modelling methodology in addition to the top-down sales statistics of the 

refrigerant and blowing agent suppliers and the bottom-up determinations 

from the stocks of buildings and equipment. However, these data are not 

usually available at national level and, even where it is, it can be of fairly 

limited value because the trading of insulation at regional level will often 

transfer future lifecycle emissions to a different country. Further details on 

the methodology applied can be found in (Ashford et al., 2004c). 
11

Confidence levels in activity data and emission factors vary by application in 

the refrigeration and air conditioning sector. Table 2-2 summarises the six 

different parameters assessed and confidence levels associated with each. It 

should be noticed that the confidence levels can be particularly low in the case 

of Article 5(1) countries, specifically for those where national statistical data 

are scarce. 

 Table 2-2 Uncertainty level (from A to E) by characteristic or data 

Domestic 

refrigeration 

Commercial 

refrigeration 

Refrigerated 

transport 

Industrial 

refrigeration 

Stationary air 

conditioning 

Mobile air 

conditioning 

Market and 

production A B* C* B/C* A A 

Lifetime B/D* B A B A B 

Refrigerant 

type A/C* B A B B** A 

Refrigerant 

charge A B B B/C* C* A 

Emission 

rate B/D* B/C B B/C B B/C** 

Recovery 

rate A C B C B B/C** 

* In Article 

5(1) countries 

lifetime, 

emission rates 

and 

refrigerants 

used are not 

well known. 

*Calculations are 

based on the 

number of 

retailers. The 

main uncertainties 

are coming from 

the number of 

refrigerating 

equipment in 

convenience 

stores, and food 

specialists in 

Article 5(1) 

countries. 

* Data are based 

on trucks 

market and 

production. 

*Data are well 

known in food 

industry. Other 

ones (such as the 

chemical 

industry) do not 

communicate; 

then uncertainty 

regarding charge 

and equipment 

base is larger in 

this sector. 

*Uncertainties 

about the 

average cooling 

capacity of 

chillers, 

depending on 

the country 

** new 

refrigerant 

markets are well 

known but past 

distribution, 

especially 

between CFC11 and CFC-12 

is uncertain. 

*Refrigerants 

used in market 

or production 

are well known 

but retrofit 

process (USA 

for instance) in 

servicing is not 

well estimated 

** In countries 

where “do it 

yourself” 

servicing 

occurs, 

emission rates 

are difficult to 

estimate 

0 < |A| < 5% 5 < |B| < 10% 10 < |C| < 15% 15 < |D| < 20% 20 < |E| < 25%

2.3 Atmospheric concentrations and derived emissions (IPCC TEAP, 2005) 

The average residence time of a fluorocarbon in equipment or other products 

varies from less than a year to many decades, depending on the application. In 

1974, at the time of the publication of the ozone-depletion hypothesis by 

Molina and Rowland, fluorocarbons were mainly used in applications such as 

aerosol propellants, solvents, and open-cell foams, resulting in rapid 

emissions of these gases to the atmosphere within a year of sale. Since use as 

propellants, and other applications with rapid emissions, have largely 

disappeared in non-Article 5(1) countries and are gradually being minimised 
12

in Article 5(1) countries, the current use of fluorocarbons is dominated by 

their continuing use in applications with relatively slow emissions to the 

atmosphere such as refrigerant and in closed-cell foam applications. The slow 

emission of refrigerants and blowing agents establish banks, which can emit 

fluorocarbons for prolonged periods and long after the use of the chemical has 

ceased. 

As noted earlier, when calculating banks of fluorocarbon and other chemicals 

in refrigeration and in foams, it is necessary to study sales of equipment 

and/or products, lifetime aspects, leakage during use, and end-of-life issues. 

This bottom-up approach is based on data from surveys, which must be well 

designed to ensure complete coverage. However, there are usually crosschecks to ensure completeness. Emission factors for refrigeration equipment 

and foams have been assessed over several years. These vary significantly 

according to the application and good market analysis is required to ensure the 

use of appropriately weighted emission factors. The differences between the 

use and the forecast emissions applying these functions are assigned to banks, 

which accrue and diminish with time. Verification of the physical existence 

of these banks has largely served to confirm the appropriateness of the 

emission functions adopted, although year-to-year emission projections can 

have significant error bars for banks that release slowly (e.g. foams), 

particularly where emission projections are largely based on end-of-life 

practices. These year-to-year errors (explained in greater detail in Chapter 7) 

tend to be offset with time, making the level of confidence greater over a 

multiyear period. 

Observations of concentrations of long-lived chemicals in the atmosphere can 

be used to estimate past emissions. If the lifetime of the chemical is long 

enough and the rate of mixing is sufficient to ensure a more or less 

homogeneous concentration in the whole lower troposphere, then past 

emissions can be derived by simple inverse modelling using the change in 

observed concentration and the lifetime of the chemicals (see Table TS-2 in 

the Technical Summary of IPCC TEAP, 2005). 

Measurements of long-lived chemicals are performed frequently and with 

high accuracy in several measurement networks. The uncertainty in derived 

emissions depends on the uncertainty in the trend in observed concentration 

and on the uncertainty in the lifetime. Both are relatively small for most 

chemicals, although deriving emission estimates from small annual changes in 

relatively large numbers does carry some additional risk. Using different 

measurement networks may also yield different emissions and therefore 

information about the uncertainty. On this basis, the uncertainty in derived 

emissions is about 10% for CFC-11 and between 1% and 6% for other longlived halocarbons. 
13

As developed further in Chapter 7, the variances observed in the Special 

Report between derived emissions from atmospheric observations and those 

derived from bottom-up assessments arise from systematic errors (e.g. lack of 

SROC completeness for ODS uses and a lack of knowledge on contemporary 

use patterns for ODS in developing countries) as well as from random errors 

associated with the uncertainties in the activity data and emissions factors at 

sectoral level. Evidence suggests that the combination of both forms of error 

is sufficient to reconcile the variances, although further work would be 

valuable in characterising both systematic and random errors more fully. 

15

3 Demand, banks and emissions in a BAU scenario, historic data 

and 2015 emissions

3.1 Assumptions BAU scenario 

In the Special Report (IPCC TEAP, 2005) a Business-As-Usual (BAU) 

scenario was developed for the projections of the demand, banks and 

emissions of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs and some PFCs (where these are used as 

replacements for ozone-depleting substances). In the BAU scenario different 

annual market growth percentages are assumed for different regions in the 

world. These projections assume that all existing measures will remain in 

place, including the Montreal Protocol (phase-out) and relevant national 

regulations. The Business-As-Usual case assumes the continuing application 

of all existing measures and the alternative scenario(s) embody improvements 

that could be implemented assuming global application of current bestpractice emission reduction techniques. As a consequence, the usual practices 

and emission rates will remain unchanged up to 2015 and the recovery 

efficiency will not increase. This may imply that certain alternative chemicals 

penetrate to a certain (different) degree in certain markets. The large scale 

destruction of banks is not included in this BAU scenario. In order to 

facilitate the calculations of emissions, estimates have been made of the size 

of the bank of ozone-depleting substances and fluorinated gases in equipment 

and applications in 2002. Table 3.1 summarises the key assumptions of the 

Business-As-Usual (BAU) projections. 

The activities underlying emissions of fluorocarbons are expected to expand 

significantly between now and 2015. These activities (such as the 

requirements for refrigeration, air conditioning and insulation) will involve a 

number of technologies, including CFCs and HCFCs. In non-Article 5(1) 

countries, the use and emissions of CFCs and HCFCs will decline as obsolete 

equipment is retired. In Article 5(1) countries, ozone-depleting substances 

(particularly HCFCs) may be used for most of the first half of this century and 

significant growth is expected. 

3.2 Demand, banks and emissions per substance and per sector 

3.2.1. General observations 

Current emission profiles are largely determined by historic use patterns, 

resulting in a relatively high contribution (now and in the coming decades) 

from CFCs and HCFCs banked in equipment and foams. 

Tables 3-2 and 3-3 show the banks per substance and per sector. Figure 3-1 

presents the banks for the year 2002 and for the year 2015, for both the BAU 

and the MIT scenario. It also gives the shares of the non-Article 5(1) and the 

Article 5(1) countries in the total. 
16

Table 3-1 Key assumptions in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario 

Sector Annual market growth 

2002−2015 (both in BAU and 

MIT) (% yr-1) 

Best practice assumptions 

Refrigeration, EU USA Japan SAC and MAC 

EU 

% yr-1

USA 

% yr-1

Japan 

% yr-1

A5(1) 

% yr-1 

Type of Reduction BAU BAU BAU 

Domestic 1 2.2 1.6 2−4.8 Substance HFC-134a / HC-600a HFC-134a HFC-134a refrigeration Recovery 0% 0% 0% Commercial 1.8 2.7 1.8 2.6−5.2 Substance R-404A HCFC-22 / R-404A HCFC / R-404A refrigeration Recovery 50% 50% 50% 

1 1 1 3.6−4.0 Substance HFC-NH3 (35%) HCFC / HFC-NH3

(60%) 

HCFC / HFC-NH3

(35%) 

Industrial refrigeration 

 Recovery 50% 50% 50% 

Transport 2 3 1 3.3−5.2 Substance HFCs HCFCs / HFCs HCFCs / HFCs refrigeration Recovery 50% 50% 50% SAC 3.8 3 1 5.4−6.0 Substance HFCs HCFCs / HFCs HCFCs / HFCs 

 Recovery 50% 30% 30% 

4 4 1 6.0−8.0 Substance HFC-134a / CO2 (10%) 

as of 2008 

HFC-134a HFC-134a 

 Recovery 50% 0% 0% 

MAC 

 Charge 700 g 900 g 750 g 

Foams About 2% yr-1 Assumptions on substance use (see Technical Summary section 4.4 (IPCMedical aerosols 1.5–3% yr-1 Partial phase-out of CFCs Fire protection −4.5% yr-1 (all substances) Phase-out of halons Non-medical aerosols and solvents 

16% increase period in total CO2-

weighted emissions over the 

period 2002−2015 

 See (IPCC TEAP, 2005) 
17

The largest bank of ODS (CFCs) is in foam products, which are located in the 

non-Article 5(1) countries. This will remain the case between 2002 and 2015. 

Banks of halons are also important, and are roughly split equally between 

non-Article 5(1) and Article 5(1) countries. This will remain the case until 

2015, although the size of the bank is expected to decrease. Banks of ODS 

substances in refrigeration and air conditioning are relatively small (compared 

to the others mentioned above) and will be much smaller in the year 2015, 

mainly due to a decrease in the CFC banks, which can then only be found in 

the Article 5(1) countries. Further, more detailed data are presented below. 

It should be noted, that recovery efforts and the associated costs may vary 

widely, to the extent that certain, large amounts of ODS in banks are virtually 

unrecoverable, although still existing. However, the option for destruction 

still remains open. For example, refrigerants are generally considered to be 

easily recoverable but recovery of foam blowing agents can be more 

complicated (see further chapter 5 in this report). 

Most halon-1211 is widely dispersed in building and residential portable fire 

extinguishers averaging only a few kg each. Other halon-1211 has been 

centralised in military, aviation and large fire brigades. Collection of the 

widely dispersed portable extinguishers may prove to be unproductive or 

uneconomic in some countries. National programs that require halon owners 

to donate substances and to pay for destruction have resulted in recovery of 

only a small portion of estimated banks, with unreported quantities likely 

emitted or lost to avoid the expense. On the other hand, national programs 

offering a bounty for recovered halon and financing of destruction have 

demonstrated higher recovery rates. 

In general, emissions, i.e., bank-turnover varies significantly from application 

to application: from months (e.g. solvents), several years (refrigeration 

applications) to over half a century (foam insulation). The banks stored in 

equipment and foams may leak during the use phase of the products they are 

part of, and at the end of the product lifecycle (in case they are not recovered 

or destroyed. 
18

Table 3-2 2002 Banks of halocarbons per group of substances 

Product (kt product) ODP (kt ODP) GWP (MtCO2-eq) 

Banks 2002 World NonArticle 5(1) 

countries 

Article 5(1) countries 

World NonArticle 5(1) 

countries 

Article 5(1) countries 

World NonArticl

count

Halons 168 80 88 1,173 659 514 531 CFCs 2,430 1,669 760 2,412 1,665 747 15,749 HCFCs 2,651 1,997 643 194 156 37 3,841 HFCs 544 494 49 0 0 0 1,103 PFCs 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 Total 5,793 4,241 1,540 3,779 2,480 1,299 21,229 1

Table 3-3 2002 Banks of halocarbons per application sector 

Product (kt product) ODP (kt ODP) GWP (MtCO2-eq) 

Banks 2002 World NonArticle 5(1) 

countries 

Article 5(1) countries 

World NonArticle 5(1) 

countries 

Article 5(1) countries 

World NonArticl

count

Refrigeration 971 406 565 336 66 270 4,751 Stationary AC 1,193 868 325 134 86 48 2,509 Mobile AC 419 352 67 150 108 42 1,987 Foams 2,996 2,507 490 1,978 1,555 423 11,270 Medical Aerosols 12 9 2 8 6 2 75 Fire Protection 191 99 92 1,174 659 514 606 HFC-23 byproduct - - - - - - - N-M Aer./Solvents 12 0 0 1 0 0 32 Total 5,793 4,241 1,540 3,779 2,480 1,299 21,229 1

Note: Not all banks data could be allocated to regions. For HFC-23 by-product, non-medical aerosols and solvents no regdemand, banks and emissions is available. 
Halons

Halons Halons

CFCs

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs HCFCs

Refriger

Refrigeration

Refrigeration SAC SAC

SAC

MAC M

MAC

Foams Foams

Foams

Fire Fire

Fire

Developed 

Developed

Developing

Developing

0

500

1000150020002500300035004000

 2002 2015 Busines-as-Usual Scenario 2015 Mitigat

Banks (ktonnes ODP)

Figure 3-1 Banks of halocarbons expressed in ktonnes ODP. Breakdown per group of substances, per emissregion (non-Article 5(1)/Article 5(1) countries), for 2002, 2015 Business-as-Usual Scenario, and 2015 Mitig
20

3.2.2 Specific observations related to the 2002 banks 

In ktonnes, the largest bank is in foams, being almost 3,000 ktonnes, of which 

1,860 ktonnes are CFCs (roughly the same in ODP-ktonnes) and 1,130 

ktonnes (119 ODP-ktonnes) are HCFCs. 1,445 ktonnes of CFCs, as well as 

1,050 ktonnes of HCFCs (equal to 110 ODP-ktonnes) can be found in the nonArticle 5(1) countries. In the Article 5(1) countries, the CFC foams bank 

amounts to 414 ktonnes (414 ODP-ktonnes), the HCFC foam bank to 76 

ktonnes, or 9 ODP-ktonnes. Less than 7% of the global HCFC foam bank is 

in the Article 5(1) countries. 

In 2002, the second largest bank in ODP-ktonnes is in refrigeration, with 335 

ODP-ktonnes (971 ktonnes). This amounts to 313 ODP-ktonnes of CFCs and 

23 ODP-ktonnes of HCFCs. In this case, 256 ODP-ktonnes (82%) of CFCs 

are banked in the Article 5(1) countries, as well as 14 ODP-ktonnes of HCFCs 

(61%). This implies that the largest bank for refrigeration in 2002 is in the 

Article 5(1) countries. A large portion (186 ODP-ktonnes) is in commercial 

refrigeration in the Article 5(1) countries, next to 69 ODP-ktonnes in domestic 

refrigeration. 

The halon bank amounts to a total of 168 ktonnes, of which 80 ktonnes are in 

the non-Article 5(1) and 88 ktonnes in the Article 5(1) countries. In ODPktonnes, however, the world total amounts to 1,173 ODP-ktonnes, of which 

659 ODP-ktonnes (56%) in the non-Article 5(1), and 514 ODP-ktonnes (44%) 

in the Article 5(1) countries 

3.2.3 2015 Business-As-Usual projections for banks 

Between 2002 and 2015, global banks of CFCs decrease from 2,430 to 1,411 

ktonnes (more or less the same in ODP-ktonnes), HCFC banks increase from 

2,651 to 3,317 ktonnes (194 to 247 ODP-ktonnes). HFC banks take over for a 

large part since they are assumed to grow from 544 to 2950 ktonnes from 

2002 to 2015. 

In the non-Article 5(1) countries, CFC banks decrease from 1,669 to 1,132 

ktonnes, in the Article 5(1) countries from 760 to 280 ktonnes. HCFC banks 

in the non-Article 5(1) countries decrease from 1,997 to 1,479 ktonnes, or 156 

to 119 ODP-ktonnes. In the Article 5(1) countries they grow from 643 to 

1,822 ktonnes, or from 37 to 126 ODP-ktonnes. 

In the non-Article 5(1) countries, the foams bank of CFCs decreases from 

1,445 to 1,108 ktonnes, the HCFC bank from 1,050 to 986 ktonnes, which for 

the latter implies that it decreases from 110 to 95 ODP-ktonnes. In the Article 

5(1) countries, the foams CFC bank decreases from 414 to 198 ktonnes, the 

HCFC bank increases from 76 to 516 ktonnes, or from 9 to 61 ODP-ktonnes. 
21

In 2015, the bank in refrigeration is still larger than the bank in stationary air 

conditioning (103 compared to 70 ODP-ktonnes), but the difference has 

become much smaller. Globally, the CFC bank decreases between 2002 and 

2015 from 313 to 59 ODP-ktonnes in refrigeration, the HCFC bank, however, 

increases from 23 to 44 ODP-ktonnes. In the non-Article 5(1) countries, the 

HCFC bank decreases from 9 to 4 ODP-ktonnes, in the Article 5(1) countries, 

however, the HCFC bank increases from 14 to 41 ODP-ktonnes. 

3.2.4 2015 Business-As-Usual projections for emissions 

The activities underlying emissions of fluorocarbons are expected to grow 

significantly between now and 2015. These activities and services (such as 

refrigeration, air conditioning and insulation) will be provided by a number of 

technologies and substances, including CFCs and HCFCs. In non-Article 5(1) 

countries, use and emissions of CFCs and HCFCs will decline following the 

Montreal Protocol phase-out requirement (and national and regional 

legislation) as obsolete equipment is retired. In Article 5(1) countries, HCFCs 

can still be produced until 2040 and significant growth is expected. These 

changes, and their impacts, are reflected in the data (see data in the Annex). 

The fall in CFC emissions is not accompanied by a similar increase in 

emissions of HFCs because of continuing trends towards non-HFC technology 

and substitutes with lower GWPs. In addition, but not included in the BAU 

scenario, capture and safe disposal of materials, that in the past were emitted, 

is likely to increase for HFCs since the emissions of these substances are 

controlled under the Kyoto Protocol. The Business-As-Usual case assumes 

continuing application of all existing measures and the mitigation scenario 

embodies improvements that could be implemented assuming global 

application of current best practice emission reduction techniques. 

Tables 3-4 and 3-5 show the emissions per substance and per sector for the 

year 2002. Figure 3-2 presents the emissions for the year 2002 and for the 

year 2015, for both the BAU and the MIT scenario. It also gives the shares of 

the non-Article 5(1) and the Article 5(1) countries in the total. Where it 

concerns emissions, the share of the Article 5(1) countries in the total is 

relatively large, taking into account the relative distribution of the banks 

between the Article 5(1) and the non-Article 5(1) countries. Significant 

amounts of emissions in the Article 5(1) countries originate from refrigeration 

and air conditioning and from halon equipment. The emissions will have 

decreased substantially by 2015 due to smaller banks. In both the BAU and 

the MIT scenario the banks are more or less the same, however, there is a 

large difference in emissions due to the application of improved techniques 

and the further improvement of all kind of practices. 
22

Table 3-4 2002 Emissions of halocarbons per group of substances 

Product (kt yr-1 product) ODP (kt yr-1 ODP) GWP (MtCO2-eq 

Emissions 2002 World NonArticle 5(1) 

countries 

Article 5(1) countries 

World NonArticle 5(1) 

countries 

Article 5(1) countries 

World NonArticl

count

Halons 11 5 6 69 35 34 30 CFCs 174 88 86 168 87 81 1,652 HCFCs 271 133 128 15 7 7 448 HFCs 124 103 6 0 0 0 434 PFCs 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Total 580 329 226 252 129 122 2,565 

Table 3-5 2002 Emissions of halocarbons per application sector 

Product (kt yr-1 product) ODP (kt yr-1 ODP) GWP (MtCO2-eq 

Emissions 2002 World NonArticle 5(1) 

countries 

Article 5(1) countries 

World NonArticle 5(1) 

countries 

Article 5(1) countries 

World NonArticl

count

Refrigeration 232 85 148 72 13 59 1,061 Stationary AC 115 75 40 18 10 7 271 Mobile AC 134 113 21 60 48 13 749 Foams 51 42 10 24 18 7 152 Medical Aerosols 12 9 2 8 6 2 75 Fire Protection 11 5 6 68 35 34 31 HFC-23 byproduct 14 0 0 0 0 0 195 N-M Aer./Solvents 12 0 0 1 0 0 32 Total 580 329 226 252 129 122 2,565 

Note: Not all emission data could be allocated to regions. For HFC-23 by-product, non-medical aerosols and solvents no 

demand, banks and emissions is available. 
Halons Halons

Halons

CFCs CFCs

CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration Refrigeratio

SAC

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

Foams

MDI

MDI

MDI

Fire

Fire

Developed Fire

Developed 

Developing

Developing

0

50

100150200250

 2002 2015 Busines-as-Usual Scenario 2015 Mitigatio

Emissions (ktonnes ODP yr

Figure 3-2 Emissions of halocarbons expressed in ktonnes yr-1 ODP. Breakdown per group of substances, p

per region (non-Article 5(1)/Article 5(1) countries), for 2002, 2015 Business-as-Usual Scenario, and 2015 M
24

In 2002, the emissions of CFCs amount to 174 ktonnes per year, which 

decrease to 43 ktonnes per year in 2015. Between 2002 and 2015, the 

emissions of HCFCs increase from 271 to 492 ktonnes per year in 2015, or 

from 15 to 26 ODP-ktonnes per year. 

Between 2002 and 2015, the CFC emissions in the non-Article 5(1) countries 

decrease from 88 to 17 ODP-ktonnes, in the Article 5(1) countries from 86 to 

26 ODP-ktonnes per year. 

HCFC emissions globally increase from 271 to 492 ktonnes per year (15 to 26 

ODP-ktonnes), in the non-Article 5(1) they decrease from 7 to 5 ODP-ktonnes 

per year, in the Article 5(1) countries they increase from 7 to 20 ODP-ktonnes 

per year (128 to 380 ktonnes). 

Halon emissions are important, but they decrease from 86 to 40 ODP-ktonnes 

per year between 2002 and 2015. 

Although the quantity of ODS in foams banks was by far the largest, the 

annual emissions from refrigeration and mobile air conditioning, as well as 

halons, are larger than foam emissions, particularly in the year 2002. Global 

CFC emissions from refrigeration decrease from 65 to 12 ODP-ktonnes, in 

MAC they decrease from 60 to 5 ODP-ktonnes per year, however, in foams 

they decrease from 22 to 16 ODP-ktonnes per year, which makes foams the 

largest CFC emitter in the year 2015. 

In refrigeration, the CFC emissions in the non-Article 5(1) countries are 

reduced to a very small amount, from 11 to 1 ODP-ktonne per year, in mobile 

air conditioning from 47 to 0, in foams from 16 to 12 ODP-ktonnes per year 

by 2015. HCFC emissions in the non-Article 5(1) countries decrease from 2 

to 1 ODP-ktonne per year for refrigeration by 2015 (45 to 18 ktonnes), they 

remain constant for stationary air conditioning, at 3 ODP-ktonnes. From 

foam, the HCFC emissions decrease from 2 to 1 ODP-ktonne per year by 

2015. 

In 2015, the sum of CFC and HCFC emissions in the non-Article 5(1) 

countries is equal to 22 ODP-ktonnes per year, halon emissions amount to 16 

ODP-ktonnes per year, which, in fact, makes the halon bank (and resulting 

emissions) management very important in the non-Article 5(1) countries, 

mindful that the bank has halved between 2002 and 2015. 

CFC emissions in the Article 5(1) countries decrease from 86 to 26 ktonnes 

per year (or ODP-ktonnes) between 2002 and 2015. In the Article 5(1) 

countries, HCFC emissions increase from 128 to 380 ktonnes, or from 7 to 20 

ODP-ktonnes per year. 
25

With more or less similar bank sizes, annual emissions of halons are estimated 

at 35 ODP-ktonnes per year in the non-Article 5(1) countries, and 34 ODPktonnes per year in the Article 5(1) countries in the year 2002. The emissions 

are reduced to 16 ODP-ktonnes in the non-Article 5(1) and to 24 ODPktonnes in the Article 5(1) countries in 2015. 

In the Article 5(1) countries, CFC emissions from refrigeration decrease from 

55 to 11 ODP-ktonnes per year between 2002 and 2015 and are the most 

important emissions in 2015, followed by halon emissions. CFC emissions 

from stationary and mobile air conditioning and from foams are all 3-5 ODPktonnes per year. 

HCFC emissions in the Article 5(1) countries increase for refrigeration (from 

87 to 302 ktonnes, or 4 to 15 ODP-ktonnes per year between 2002 and 2015), 

for stationary air conditioning (33 to 60 ktonnes, or 2 to 3 ODP-ktonnes per 

year) as well as from 3 to 8 ktonnes per year for foam, which implies that the 

HCFC emissions from foam are about 1 ODP-ktonne per year in the year 

2015. 

27

4 Demand, banks and emissions in a MIT scenario, comparison 

of 2015 BAU and MIT 

4.1 Assumptions MIT scenario 

In (IPCC TEAP, 2005) a Mitigation (MIT) scenario was developed for the 

projections of the demand, banks and emissions of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs and 

some PFCs (where these are used as replacements for ozone-depleting 

substances). In the MIT scenario different annual market growth percentages 

are assumed for different regions in the world, equal to the ones used in the 

BAU scenario. These projections assume that all existing measures will 

remain in place, including the Montreal Protocol (phase-out) and relevant 

national regulations. The Mitigation case assumes improved application of all 

existing measures and improvement in best-practice emission reduction 

techniques. As a consequence, the usual practices and emission rates will 

change during the period 2002-2015. In the case of refrigeration, the recovery 

efficiency is assumed to increase in all sub-sectors; charge reductions are 

assumed in different applications in certain regions of the world. In this 

scenario certain alternative chemicals penetrate to a larger degree in certain 

markets than assumed in the BAU scenario. However, large scale destruction 

of banks is again not included in this MIT scenario. In the case of foams, the 

dependency on HFCs is less than in the BAU scenario, there are 

improvements in production and installation and end-of life management is 

increasingly applied. In the case of medical aerosols it is assumed that there 

will not be CFC inhalers on the market anymore. Where it relates to halons, 

there is no difference between the MIT and the BAU scenario here. Table 4-1 

summarises the key assumptions of the MIT projections 

 

4.2 Demand, banks and emissions per substance and per sector 

4.2.1 Difference between 2015 Business-As-Usual and Mitigation projections for 

banks 

The difference in the size of the banks is minimal between the BAU and MIT 

scenario in 2015. This conclusion is related to the fact that the difference in 

the banks in the two scenarios is caused by the application of non-CFC, nonHCFC, low GWP refrigerants and chemicals and by charge reduction. Given 

the lifetime of some of the products these measures will only proliferate 

slowly, and more importantly, are not of any influence in CFC based products 

where manufacturing can be assumed to have stopped either before (in the 

non-Article 5(1) countries) or in the period 2002-2015. 
28

Table 4-1 Key assumptions in the Mitigation Scenario

Sector Annual market growth 

2002−2015 (both in BAU and 

MIT) (% yr-1) 

Best practice assumptions 

Refrigeration, EU USA Japan SAC and MAC 

EU 

% yr-1

USA 

% yr-1

Japan 

% yr-1

A5(1)

% yr-1 

Type of Reduction MIT MIT MIT 

1 2.2 1.6 2−4.8 Substance HC-600a HFC-134a / HC-600a 

(50%) 

HC-600a 

Domestic refrigeration 

 Recovery 80% 80% 80% 

1.8 2.7 1.8 2.6−5.2 Substance R-404A / R-410A (50%) R-404A / R-410A (50%) R-404A / R-410

 Recovery 90% 90% 90% 

Commercial refrigeration 

 Charge −30% −30% −30% 

1 1 1 3.6−4.0 Substance HFC-NH3 (70%) HCFC / HFC-NH3 (80%) HCFC / HFC-N

 Recovery 90% 90% 90% 

Industrial refrigeration 

 Charge −40% −40% −40% 

Transport 2 3 1 3.3−5.2 Substance HFCs HCFCs / HFCs HCFCs / HFCs refrigeration Recovery 80% 70% 70% 

3.8 3 1 5.4−6.0 Substance HFCs HCFCs / HFCs HCFCs / HFCs 

SAC 

 Recovery 80% 80% 80% 

 Charge −20% −20% MAC 4 4 1 6.0−8.0 Substance HFC-134a / CO2 (50%) as 

of 2008 

HFC-134a / CO2 (30%) 

as of 2008 

HFC-134a / CO

as of 2008 

 Recovery 80% 70% 70%  Charge 500 g 700 g 500 g Foams About 2% yr-1 MIT HFC consumption reduction: A linear decrease in use of HFCs between 

reduction by 2015. 

Production/installation improvements: The adoption of production emis

all block foams and from 2008 in other foam sub-sectors. 

End-of-life management options: The extension of existing end-of-life m

faced panels by 2010 together with a 20% recovery rate from other b

Medical aerosols 1.5–3% yr-1 MIT Complete phase-out of CFCs 

−4.5% yr-1 Fire protection (all substances) MIT Not quantifiable 

+0.4% yr-1 (HCFCs/HFCs/PFCs) MIT 100% implementation of reduction options (90% emission reduction) 

Non-medical aerosols and solvents 

16% increase period in total CO2-

weighted emissions over the 

period 2002−2015 

MIT Not quantifiable 
29

Hence, world-wide the banks for CFCs and HCFCs are roughly the same in 

both scenarios; there are small differences in the domestic and commercial 

refrigeration sub-sectors. HCFC banks in stationary air conditioning are 

smaller in the MIT scenario (878 versus 644 ktonnes, or 43 versus 32 ODPktonnes). There is no difference in the banked chemicals in foams, as long as 

it concerns ODS (on the other hand, there are small differences in HFCs 

banked in foams between the two scenarios). 

No major differences in the trends for bank size development during 2002-

2015 can be observed between the non-Article 5(1) and the Article 5(1) 

countries (banks in several sub-sectors are 0 to 10% smaller in the MIT 

scenario). As mentioned, the exception is in the stationary air conditioning 

sector where banks are 25% smaller in the non-Article 5(1) and 10% smaller 

in the Article 5(1) countries, and this applies to 2015 in the MIT scenario. 

4.2.2 Difference between 2015 Business-As-Usual and Mitigation projections for 

emissions 

World-wide, CFC emissions are 30% lower in the MIT scenario (29 versus 42 

ODP-ktonnes per year); HCFC emissions are almost 40% lower (16 versus 26 

ODP-ktonnes per year). Halon emissions are assumed to be the same in both 

scenarios. This results in 25% lower ODP-tonnes emissions per year (the 

savings expressed in ktonnes per year are larger, due to the fact that halons do 

not contribute). 

Relatively, the largest reduction is in the stationary air conditioning sector 

with more than 50% reduction in the MIT versus the BAU scenario (6 versus 

13 ODP-ktonnes per year in the BAU scenario), followed by refrigeration 

with a reduction of about 40%. Reductions in the foam sector are marginal, 

emissions are 6% lower in the MIT compared to the BAU scenario (17 

compared to 18 ODP-ktonnes per year). 

If one takes the reductions in HCFC emissions in the MIT scenario, then 

largest reductions are observed in the stationary air conditioning sector, by 

67% (2 versus 6 ODP-ktonnes per year). Virtually no reductions occur in the 

HCFC foam sector, only some in the CFC foam sector (1 ODP-ktonne per 

year). 

In the non-Article 5(1) countries, the reduction in CFC emissions is minimal 

(15 versus 16 ODP-ktonnes per year), much larger reductions, about 40%, are 

possible in the Article 5(1) countries. This depends of course, on the 

assumptions for these countries in the MIT scenario. The largest reduction 

can be observed in the stationary air conditioning sector (reduction by 67% in 

CFCs and HCFCs, both from 3 to 1 ODP-ktonne per year). 
30

In the Article 5(1) countries, the reductions in emissions are larger for both 

CFCs (14 versus 25 ODP-ktonnes per year) and for HCFCs (12 versus 20 

ODP-ktonnes per year). Reductions in the specific refrigeration and AC subsectors are all in the order of 35%, except for foam (3 compared to 4 ODPktonnes of CFCs per year). 

4.2.3 Graphical presentation of the 2015 Business-As-Usual and Mitigation 

projections for banks and emissions 

Figures 4-1 and 4-2 present the banks and emissions for 2002, and for the 

BAU and MIT projections for the year 2015. The graphs have on the 

horizontal axis the amounts in Mt CO2-eq, on the vertical axis the amounts in 

ODP ktonnes. In both figures data are given for the world, and separately for 

the non-Article 5(1) and the Article 5(1) countries. 

In figure 4-1 it is clearly shown that the size of the foam bank is by far the 

largest, both for the world and for the non-Article 5(1) countries. The 

difference between the foam bank in the BAU and the MIT scenario is 

minimal (due to the long life of rigid foam products). 

Figure 4-1 shows that the halon banks decrease significantly on ODP tonnes, 

the difference in Mt CO2-eq is minimal (due to the low GWP of halons). 

World-wide, the banks of refrigeration, stationary and mobile air conditioning 

decrease in ODP terms but there are only small decreases between the BAU 

and MIT scenarios. The largest decrease takes place in mobile air 

conditioning. In refrigeration and stationary air conditioning the bank 

increase in GWP terms in the BAU scenario due to market growth and the 

application of HFC mixtures with relatively high GWP. This is offset for a 

large part in the MIT scenario for stationary air conditioning, and there is 

decrease for refrigeration and mobile air conditioning. The same dynamics 

between the BAU and MIT banks of refrigeration, stationary and mobile air 

conditioning described for the world can be observed in the case of the nonArticle 5(1) countries. 

In the Article 5(1) countries, the bank of halons decreases dramatically 

between 2002 and 2015, and this also holds for the bank in refrigeration 

equipment (mainly due to the large content of CFCs in the year 2002). The 

importance of the banks in mobile and stationary air conditioning seem to be 

relatively low in the Article 5(1) countries. In GWP terms the bank in 

stationary air conditioning increases due to market growth (and to a small 

degree due to application of HFC mixtures instead of HCFC-22). The foam 

bank is much smaller here than in the non-Article 5(1) countries and decreases 

to two third the amount in ODP ktonnes by the year 2015. 
31

Figure 4-2 shows the emissions for the world as well as for the non-Article 

5(1) and the Article 5(1) countries. Mobile air conditioning is now the topemitter in the non-Article 5(1) countries in 2002 (both in ODP and in GWP 

terms), with a enormous decrease in 2015 for the BAU scenario and even 

more for the MIT scenario. Refrigeration is the top emitter in the Article 5(1) 

countries, with a large decrease in ODP tonnes (not so much in Mt CO2-eq) by 

2015 in the BAU scenario, and a further decrease in the MIT scenario (where 

the decrease in Mt CO2-eq is quite outspoken). 

In ODP tonnes, the emissions from halon systems are still very significant, in 

both the non-Article 5(1) and the Article 5(1) countries. 

The emissions from foams are relatively small in 2002 but certainly not 

negligible. In the non-Article 5(1) countries, the contribution of these 

emissions forms the largest of all in the year 2015, not much different from 

the contribution of halons in ODP terms. 

Refrigeration equipment remains an important source of ODP related 

emissions in the Article 5(1) countries by 2015 (where only the halon 

contribution is supposed to be larger). 
32

MIT 2015

BAU 2015

2002

BAU-2015/MIT-2015

2002

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

GWP (MtCO2-eq)

ODP (kt ODP)

Refrigeration

Fire protection

Mobile AC SAC

Foams

Banks - WORLD

BAU-2015/MIT-2015

2002

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

GWP (MtCO2-eq)

ODP (kt ODP)

Refrig.

Fire protection

MAC SAC

Banks - DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

MIT 2015

BAU 2015

2002

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

8000 9000 10000

Foams

MIT 2015

BAU 2015

2002

BAU-2015/MIT-2015

2002

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

GWP (MtCO2-eq)

ODP (kt ODP)

Refrigeration

Fire protection

MAC

SAC

Foams

Banks - DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Figure 4-1 Scatter diagram for the sectoral banks of halocarbons expressed in GWP (MtCO2-eq) and 

ODP (kt ODP) for 2002, and for 2015 in both the Business-As-Usual and the Mitigation Scenario. 
33

2002

BAU-2015

MIT-2015

BAU-2015/MIT-2015

2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

GWP (MtCO2-eq yr-1)

ODP (kt ODP yr-1)

Refrigeration

Fire protection

Mobile AC

SAC

Foams

Emissions - WORLD

Medical

aerosols

MIT-2015 BAU-2015

2002

2002

BAU-2015/MIT-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

GWP (MtCO2-eq yr-1)

ODP (kt ODP yr-1)

Refrigeration

Fire protection

Mobile AC

SAC

Foams

Emissions - DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Medical

aerosols

MIT-2015

BAU-2015

2002

2002

BAU-2015/MIT-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

GWP (MtCO2-eq yr-1)

ODP (kt ODP yr-1)

Refrigeration

Mobile AC

Stationary AC

Foams

Emissions - DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Medical

aerosols

Fire protection

Figure 4-2 Scatter diagram for the sectoral emissions of halocarbons expressed in GWP (MtCO2-eq) 

and ODP (kt ODP) for 2002, and for 2015 in both the Business-As-Usual and the Mitigation Scenario. 

35

5 Mitigation Costs

5.1 Introduction 

The options to reduce ODS (and GHG) emissions explored in the Special 

Report (IPCC TEAP, 2005) include: improved containment of substances; 

reduced charge of substances in equipment; end-of-life recovery and recycling 

or destruction of substances; increased use of alternative substances with a 

lower or zero global warming potential; not-in-kind technologies; acceleration 

of the remaining phase-outs (and less dependence on ODSs for exempted 

feedstock uses, process agent applications, quarantine uses, as well as 

essential CFC and critical MB uses, where the latter five applications are not 

considered in this report). 

 

In the Special Report mitigation was considered in the context of lowering 

global warming impact. This implied considerations on the conversion of 

equipment manufacturing to certain non-ODS and also to very low GWP 

alternatives. Mitigation costs were derived for several sectors for avoiding 

certain amounts of direct global warming emissions. Mitigation of global 

warming contributions from substances in equipment or products was 

considered via a mitigation (MIT) scenario, found in chapter 4 of this report. 

The mitigation scenario assumed a high degree of recover and recycle, good 

containment, charge reduction in new equipment etc. Costs of recovery and 

destruction were considered in general terms in a separate chapter in the 

Special Report (see chapter 11 in IPCC TEAP, 2005); the MIT scenario had 

no real overall cost component attached to it. 

Mitigation where it concerns mitigating the impact of (ODS) emissions on the 

ozone layer (depletion or recovery) is of a different kind. Where it concerns 

CFC based equipment and products, the CFC production phase-out by 1996 in 

the non-Article 5(1) and by 2010 in the Article 5(1) countries is important. It 

can reasonably be assumed that, as of 2005, no new CFC equipment will be 

put on the market world-wide (this specifically applies to Article 5(1) 

countries). CFC based equipment and products still on the market in 2002 

(the starting point for the BAU and MIT scenario) will be replaced by non 

CFC products in the course of a number of years. For a very significant part 

this has already occurred in the non-Article 5(1) countries, it is occurring in 

the Article 5(1) countries with the assistance of the Multilateral Fund. The 

mitigation of the impact on the ozone layer will mainly consist of the avoiding 

of emissions. Where emissions during operation (which are offset by 

charging during servicing, which therefore does not add to the bank) are 

difficult to avoid, mitigation actually applies here to avoiding the release of 

the substances in the banks. 

Clear societal value can be ascribed to preventing further emissions of ODS 

and GHGs. However, quantifying this value and comparing it against the cost 
36

of recovery and destruction is more difficult and there are obvious 

uncertainties on both sides. It is not simple matter adding current mitigation 

valuations from more general abatement strategies. Nevertheless, it would 

seem inappropriate to ignore the potential environmental benefit of potentially 

cost-effective measures. Accordingly, there may be a place for flexible fiscal 

mechanisms, which provide incentives without prescription. 

Mitigation costs for emissions from banks are significantly greater than those 

costs traditionally supported for ODS phase-out. This is due to the fact that 

the cost calculation for ODS phase-out takes into consideration the annual 

ODS use and related phase-out in a manufacturing operation (at a cost 

effectiveness of about US $5-15); this is the usual procedure followed in 

projects submitted to the Executive Committee of the Multilateral Fund. 

However, the cost of avoiding the release of emissions from banks is related 

to the quantity of the substances itself, produced during a number of years and 

is therefore significantly greater. Mitigation costs for the emissions from 

banks may be economically justified when the additional value of greenhouse 

gas reduction is accounted. 

In the case of concentrated sources mitigation can be practised by: 

(a) the recovery of chemicals at end of life and subsequent storage (with 

possible emission at a much later stage, when the impact on the ozone 

layer recovery will be negligible). However, this option is not to be 

preferred because it would still mean an impact on climate at a future 

stage. 

(b) the recovery and collection as under (a) and subsequent destruction. 

The decomposition or destruction of ozone-depleting substances, including 

CFCs, HCFCs and halons (and actually also HFCs) can be achieved using 

various commercially available and successfully demonstrated technologies. 

A more detailed overview of destruction technologies and capabilities can be 

found in (IPCC TEAP, 2005). 

At the present time, the quantities of fluorinated gases destroyed by the 

techniques described above are extremely low; potentially, they do not exceed 

a few thousand tonnes (IPCC TEAP, 2005). In the European Union, the EU 

Regulation mandates the destruction of CFCs following their recovery; this 

also applies to foam insulation when recovered from dismantled equipment 

(EC 2037/2000). Similarly, CFCs recovered from refrigeration and airconditioning equipment must also be destroyed. The different technologies 

involve varying costs, effluents and emissions, energy usage, and destruction 

efficiencies. Further work is required to estimate whether the current number 

of destruction facilities globally could cope with the quantities of fluorinated 

gases recovered and destroyed. Another concern would apply to regions and 

countries where destruction facilities do not exist and where transport 
37

regulations for hazardous wastes prevent their transfer to such facilities in 

other countries (IPCC TEAP, 2005). 

The costs for recovery and recovery/recycling by units for this purpose start at 

approximately US $500 per tonne. Costs for collection and storage of the 

recovered ODS refrigerant, including the logistics involved, can roughly be 

estimated between US $1,000 and 2,000 per tonne of chemical. Dependent on 

the degree of contamination and on the quantity delivered for destruction, 

contaminated and unwanted refrigerant can be destroyed for US $2,500-4,500 

per tonne of chemical. 

As typical costs for the entire operation, US $5 per kg of product (or US 

$5,000 per tonne of product) can be assumed. 

In the case of HCFCs, mitigation implies the transition from ODS to non-ODS 

chemicals and the conversion of manufacturing equipment (which would 

imply an early phase-out compared to the existing regulations). Additionally 

it implies the collection and destruction of the banks of HCFCs. Where the 

costs for collection and destruction will be the same as for CFCs per kg of 

substance, the costs for collection and destruction are more or less 20 times as 

expensive per ODP-kg (US $100 per ODP-kg or US $100,000 per ODP-tonne). 

Here the focus is on refrigerants rather than on the blowing agent HCFC141b. 

5.2 Description of mitigation costs for the refrigeration/AC sector 

Refrigeration and mobile air conditioning had an estimated bank of 460 

ktonnes of CFCs in 2002, and for 2015 a bank of 70 ktonnes is predicted 

(world-wide). More than two thirds of this CFC bank can be found in the 

Article 5(1) countries. It may be assumed that destruction of all available 

CFCs would start in the year 2008; it would then concern an amount of about 

280 ktonnes of CFCs world-wide. Costs for collection and destruction would 

be in the order of US $1,400 million. If only 10% would be collected and 

destroyed, the costs would still be in the order of US $140 million, where the 

impact on ozone layer recovery may not be significant. 

If one would take into account the emissions that originate during servicing 

operations, these will add to the emissions from the banks (where the 

servicing amount over the entire period considered may be even larger than 

the amount present in the 2002 banks). It needs to be mentioned that there is 

no practical method to mitigate these emissions. For the investigations of the 

impacts on the ozone layer, these emissions should actually be considered 

next to the banks. This will give an adequate impression of the importance of 

destruction for an earlier recovery of the ozone layer compared to the delay 

caused by the emissions from servicing. 
38

The amount of HCFCs banked in refrigeration and stationary air conditioning 

was 1,490 ktonnes of product (70 ODP ktonnes) and is predicted to be about 

1,600 ktonnes of product in 2015 (this is dependent on whether the BAU or 

MIT scenario is selected). Up to 2015 (the amount of HCFCs contained in 

products up to 2015) collection and destruction would apply to at least 1,000 

ktonnes of product, if one assumes that destruction would start in 2008. The 

number is high, because in the period 2008-2015 a number of HCFC products 

will be replaced by HFC products and products withdrawn from the market 

would have to be treated at end of life (recovery of the chemical contained). 

Destruction would imply costs in the order of US $100 billion. Taking into 

account that it concerns only a percentage of the CFCs assumed to be 

destroyed as of 2008, costs are enormously high. One should also take into 

account that, after 2015, equipment based on HCFCs will still be marketed. 

This can only be avoided if all HCFC equipment manufacturing would be 

converted (which will introduce a very high cost component). Otherwise it 

would add to the destruction costs in future (after the period 2008-2015). 

5.3 Description of mitigation costs for the foam sector 

Mitigation costs for foams need to be assessed in terms of the sub-sector of 

application (i.e. appliances or buildings) and the stage in the life-cycle within 

which the mitigation is proposed. An example of such an assessment is that 

being conducted by the Japanese Technical Center on Construction Materials 

(JTCCM) to evaluate the cost effectiveness of recovery of blowing agents 

from foams in buildings. The cost-effectiveness is the subject of the fourth 

and final year of the project which will conclude and report in March 2006. 

Preliminary indications from previous work carried out in the field (Swedish 

EPA, 1995) show that recovery from traditional buildings may be 

uneconomical. However, the fact that steel-faced panels could be processed 

through recapture/recycle mechanical refrigerator plants may have an impact 

on future achievements. 

These approaches have been stimulated under the Montreal Protocol 

framework, even though recovery is not mandated. Under the Multilateral 

Fund, the finance made available for phase-out is typically capped at US 

$15/kg for CFC-11 (Jeffs, Ashford, Albach and Kotaji, 2004). At previous 

levels of activity, the mechanical recapture/recycling processes were handling 

domestic refrigerators at a net cost of US $15-20/unit (UNEP TEAP, 2002), 

although more recent information from the market suggests that this may have 

even fallen as low as US $10/unit. With typical recovery levels of 250-325g 

per unit, the cost of recapture and destruction is US $30-60 per kg of blowing 

agent or US $30,000-60,000 per ODP tonne. This figure would necessarily 

increase for HCFC-141b because of its lower ODP with costs increasing to 

US $250,000- US $500,000 per ODP tonne. 
39

As noted earlier, these figures are based on mechanical recovery through 

refrigerator plants. In these instances, investment decisions will be based 

primarily on CFCs, which offer the lowest recovery cost. It could therefore be 

argued that later recovery of HCFCs (and indeed HFCs) should only be 

treated in incremental cost terms. However, such discrimination is unlikely to 

take place commercially. 

5.4 Description of mitigation costs for halon sector 

In 2008, the bank of halons would amount to 780 ODP ktonnes, or about 120 

ktonnes of product (both halon-1301 and -1211). Available halon-1301 

should be banked and managed for critical uses, but halon-1211 may be 

available for destruction. The costs for destruction of halon-1211 would be 

about US $500 million, which is less costly per ODP tonne than destruction of 

CFCs. 

At the sectoral level, collection and destruction of the halon-1301 bank is 

counterproductive because available supply is necessary for critical uses. 

Beyond the need to support long-term requirements for halon-1211 such as in 

commercial aircraft, military applications, etc., destruction of some halon1211 might be made cost-effective relative to other ODS depending upon 

economic offsets to the extreme collection difficulties. Destruction of halon 

offers no benefit to climate protection due to the fact that halons are 

contributing to a net global cooling effect. 

41

6 Impacts on ozone layer recovery 

In the previous chapters the global banks of ozone depleting substances are 

given. In this chapter their potential effects on the future ozone layer are 

discussed using the existing and well-documented methods used in the 

UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion (WMO, 1999, 2003). 

Observations of concentrations in the atmosphere constrain the past 

emissions, but the banks are the difference between cumulative emissions and 

production and have much larger uncertainties. The banks in (IPCC TEAP, 

2005), which are further discussed in chapters 3 and 4 in this report are a 

result of the calculations of equipment and products manufactured and 

charged with certain amounts of ODSs; their uncertainties do not originate 

from emission and production figures. The reported banks of CFCs and 

HCFCs of Chapter 3 are considerably larger than those given in (WMO, 

2003), especially for CFC-11 and CFC-12. The CFC-11 bank in 2002 is 590 

ktonnes according to (WMO, 2003) compared with 1690 ktonnes according to 

Chapter 3 (see also Ashford et al., 2004c, IPCC TEAP, 2005). The CFC-12 

bank in 2003 is virtually zero according to WMO (2003) compared with 710 

ktonnes as follows from information given in Chapter 3. 

The larger banks in Chapter 3 are characterised by significantly lower 

emissions of CFC-11 and CFC-12 over the past 10 years, if compared with the 

emissions reported in (WMO, 2003). The lower emissions cannot support the 

observations in the atmosphere – that is, they lead to global atmospheric 

concentrations about 40 ppt lower than those observed in 2002 for both CFC11 and CFC-12. However, it should be mentioned that the banks discussed 

here are the banks for refrigeration, AC, foams and halons and the releases 

from these banks do not represent all ODS emissions. Emissions are also 

likely to result from direct-emissive applications, applications not considered 

in this Supplement Report. 

The uncertainty in the accumulated top-down emissions is estimated at about 

3%, based on an estimated 2–3% uncertainty in observed concentrations by 

different measurement networks (IPCC TEAP, 2005, Table 2-1). Based on an 

inverse calculation, the accumulated emissions for 1990-2001, which are 

needed to support the observations of CFC-11 and CFC-12, have an 

uncertainty of about 4%, assuming an uncertainty in the observed 

concentration trends of 1%. The uncertainty in cumulative production is 

harder to estimate. The total 1990-2001 production of CFC-11 and CFC-12 in 

(Ashford et al., 2004b and 2004c) is about 30–35% lower than in (WMO, 

2003). This difference can be largely attributed to the fact that production 

data not reported to AFEAS (2004) have not been taken into account, 

however, they are included in UNEP production data. Because the additional 

UNEP production is most likely used in rapid-release applications (IPCC 

TEAP, 2005, chapter 11), it does not change the size of the bank. 
42

Uncertainties in accumulated emission and production add up to the 

uncertainty in the change in the bank from 1990 to 2002, which applies to 

both the bank in (WMO, 2003) and the banks given in this Supplement 

Report. 

 

The virtually zero bank of CFC-12 reported in (WMO 2003) is not in 

agreement with the data in Chapter 3 (see also chapter 6 of IPCC TEAP, 

2005), because CFC-12 is still contained in refrigeration and mobile air 

conditioning equipment currently operated. 

The concept of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC)1, as 

defined in the 2002 Report of the Science Assessment Panel (WMO, 2003), 

can be used to estimate the effects of the ODSs on the ozone layer. The year 

of ozone layer ‘recovery’ is defined by a return to pre-1980 EESC values. 

1940 1980 2020 2060 2100

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

EESC(ppt)

Ab Baseline

E0 Zero emissions

Am Maximum

P0 Zero production

Pc Continued production

1980 level

E0

Am

Pc

Figure 6-1 Estimates of future EESC based on the baseline scenario (Ab; solid 

line), the maximum scenario (Am; long-dashed line), and the hypothetical cases of 

zero emissions in 2003 and thereafter (E0), and zero production in 2003 and 

thereafter of all anthropogenic ODSs (P0). Also shown are results from the 

scenario with continued ODS production in the future at 1999 rates (Pc), 

production that is substantially larger than allowed in the fully revised and 

amended Montreal Protocol (Figure 1-23 from WMO, 2003). 

Figure 6-1 shows the EESC for different scenarios discussed in (WMO, 2003). The 

maximum (Am) and zero emissions (E0) scenarios show the range of possible future 

 1

 EESC is the effective halogen abundance that characterises the impact of (all types) of ODS emissions on 

stratospheric ozone 
43

EESC values. The hypothetical zero emissions scenario gives the lower limit of 

chlorine/bromine loading governed by the destruction of ODSs in the atmosphere. 

The zero emissions scenario could be considered as the mitigation scenario with 

maximum impact. 

 Banks 2002 

 (ktonnes) 

E0

(E1)

Ab scenario

(WMO, 2003)

SROC/ 

Supplement

 CFC-11 - 594 1687

 CFC-12 - 0 711

 HCFC-141b - 753 836

 HCFC-142b - 210 224

 HCFC-22 - 1317 1531

 

 Year of return of 

the EESC to 1980 

levels 

2034

(2039)

2044 2046

Table 6-1 Estimates of bank sizes in different scenarios and of the year of the 

return of the EESC to 1980 values (E0 denotes the hypothetical case that all 

emissions would stop in 2003, E1 the case when no emissions would occur from 

banks) 

The maximum (Am) scenario gives the maximum EESC values based on an 

estimate of the maximum allowed production under the Montreal Protocol. 

The assumptions made for the maximum scenario of HCFCs in (WMO 2003) 

yield significantly lower emissions and banks than given in Chapter 3. The 

EESC for the maximum scenario (Am) shown in Figure 6-1 would increase 

slightly taking the larger banks of Chapter 3 into account. 

Table 6-1 gives the typical sizes of the 2002 banks for a number of 

fluorocarbon chemicals for the baseline in (WMO, 2003) and of the banks in 

the Special Report (and in this Supplement Report). 

If no emissions occurred from the ODS banks as estimated in (WMO, 2003), 

the date when the EESC is estimated to return to its 1980 value is 2039, or an 

acceleration of about five years. Finally, if emissions of all ODSs were 

stopped in 2003, the date when the EESC is estimated to return to its 1980 

value was given as 2034 in (WMO, 2003), an acceleration of about ten years. 

Both values have been given in Table 6-1. The best estimate of the year when 

the EESC is projected to return to 1980 values for the baseline scenario of 

(WMO, 2003) is 2044, if the banks of all ODSs are as estimated in (WMO, 

2003). It needs to be mentioned that the hypothetical bank of CFC-12 in the 

Ab (WMO, 2003) scenario is equal to zero, which does not reflect the real 

situation (see also Chapter 3). If the sizes of the banks of CFCs and HCFCs 

are as estimated in Chapter 3, this return to the 1980 values would be 

estimated to occur in the year 2046. In this case, no emissions out of the foam 
44

bank were considered to be of significant impact. The return of the EESC to 

its 1980 value based on an estimated maximum allowed production under the 

Montreal Protocol is 2048 (not mentioned in Table 6-1). 

If one would take into account the emissions from servicing, which will add to 

the emissions from the banks (where the servicing amount over the entire 

period considered may be even larger than the amount present in the 2002 

banks in certain sub-sectors), the return of the EESC to 1980 values levels 

might be delayed by another two years at maximum compared to the year 

2046, for the banks in the Special Report (and in this Supplement). 

Destruction of all banks in refrigeration and AC equipment as of 2008 

(destruction during the period after 2008 at end-of-life, the option considered 

in chapter 5), may have the consequence that the return of the EESC to 1980 

values will again be around the year 2046. 

Some emissions of banked CFCs (such as the slow emissions of CFC-11 from 

foams) could occur after ozone recovery. Such emissions would reduce the 

effect of the banks on ozone recovery but would still contribute to the positive 

direct radiative forcing as greenhouse gases. Thus the larger banks of some 

ODSs estimated in Chapter 3 could lead to a maximum delay in ozone 

recovery of the order of two to three years compared with the baseline 

scenario. 

These calculations of the effects of the banks of Chapter 3 on the EESC is 

based on the emission functions of (WMO, 2003), resulting in somewhat 

different emissions and banks for CFC-12 and HCFCs in 2015 than given in 

Chapter 3. The effect of this on the year of recovery will be limited since 

most emissions will take place anyway (and affect the ozone layer) before the 

approximate year of recovery. 

Thus, the changes in future ODS emissions as discussed here, within ranges 

compatible with the present uncertainties in the banks, have relatively small 

effects on the time at which the EESC recovers to 1980 levels and therefore 

on stratospheric ozone and the indirect radiative forcing of these gases. The 

absolute value for the EESC to return to its 1980 levels depends on 

uncertainties in the physical and chemical processes involved resulting in 

somewhat later or earlier recovery than given here (IPCC TEAP, 2005, 

chapter 1). The uncertainty associated with the differences between the 

scenarios discussed here is much smaller. 

In this chapter the effects of the size of the banks of ODS on the year the 

EESC drops below its 1980 level has been discussed. Clearly an ODS 

scenario affects the stratospheric chlorine and bromine levels and thereby the 

ozone layer also in the period up to the year of recovery. Integrating the 

change in the EESC from a specific year to the year the EESC drops below its 
45

1980 level gives another measure to compare the effects of scenarios (see 

WMO, 2003). 

An update of scenarios of ODS and corresponding EESC calculations will be 

presented in the upcoming "UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone 

Depletion: 2006". 

47

7 Discrepancies between emissions determined from bottom-up 

methods and from atmospheric measurements 

7.1 Sources of uncertainty regarding consumption 

Efforts to model the use (consumption) and emission of ODSs and their 

replacements by sector have been on-going since the mid-1990s. One of the 

advantages of working with ODSs controlled under the Montreal Protocol is 

that actions to quantify the historic use patterns had already been established 

under both the Alternative Fluorocarbon Environmental Assessment Study 

(AFEAS) and UNEP itself. 

The AFEAS data originate from the major producers of ODSs and their 

alternatives and have the advantage of being split by substance and sales 

pattern by sector. However, one drawback is that they are only declared by 

‘hemisphere’ to avoid disclosure of confidential business information. Since 

AFEAS is effectively a consortium of producers, there is also the problem that 

the sales from producers that are not members of AFEAS are not included. 

Since all of the major historic manufacturers are members of AFEAS, this is 

not a particular problem for historic data but has become more of an issue as 

production of ODSs and their substitutes has extended to newer manufacturers 

in Article 5(1) countries. The final point to observe on the AFEAS dataset is 

that the process for the allocation of sales to sectors has never been made fully 

transparent. For example, it is not clear as to what percentage of sales were to 

distributors and may have ended up in applications other than those 

anticipated. Additionally, there may not have been a total understanding 

among sales staff as to whether sales to the foam sector were destined for 

open-celled or close-celled applications. 

UNEP’s data collection efforts on the other hand are reported directly by 

Parties and this has provided production, consumption, import and export data 

at country level. However, there has been no effort during the collection of 

these data series to assess sales patterns by sector. In earlier years, where 

discrepancies between AFEAS and UNEP data were relatively minor, this was 

of less importance to modellers. However, as the coverage of the AFEAS 

dataset has become less comprehensive, and the discrepancies between UNEP 

and AFEAS datasets have become larger, the knowledge of sectoral end-use 

pattern has become less complete. 

To compensate for this, modellers have moved to other sources for 

information, including the database of multilaterally funded projects, which 

provides details of original consumption and transition strategies on a projectby-project basis. Although fairly painstaking to conduct, such analysis can 

provide important clarification of use patterns in the Article 5(1) countries. 
48

However, there can be some difficulties in the precise timing of transition 

where, for instance, projects might be completed operationally but not 

finalised contractually or vice versa. Additionally, not all the use of ODS or 

ODS substitutes will be covered by funded projects. Not surprisingly, 

therefore, the MLF Project database rarely provides a total explanation for the 

gap between UNEP data and AFEAS assessments bearing in mind that this 

gap cannot be assessed in any event at country-level because of the lack of 

geographic definition in the AFEAS dataset. Other sources such as Country 

Programmes, independent studies and local contacts all come into play as 

sources of further corroborative data. 

In the end, the sectoral modeller builds a model based only on the use, which 

can be positively assigned to the sector in question. This then has to be 

combined with outputs from modellers addressing other sectors to assemble a 

bottom-up, globally complete picture of consumption, which can be compared 

with the global UNEP dataset. It is still usual that the bottom-up approach 

falls short of the UNEP total, possibly because not all actual use-sectors are 

covered in any bottom-up approach. However, it is typical to see greater than 

80% of historic and current annual consumption covered by these methods. 

For some sectors, where there are large numbers of broadly replicated 

equipment and market data are prevalent, it is possible to carry out an even 

more elaborate assessment based on the equipment data themselves. Such is 

the case for several types of refrigeration equipment where units are often 

standardised and sold globally. A primary example would be domestic 

refrigerators. Unitary air conditioners would be another. Accordingly, 

bottom-up work in the refrigeration sector tends also to have a significant 

component of equipment data as an additional cross-referencing factor based 

on assumptions about charge levels. However, it is important that such data 

are not relied upon in isolation because small errors in assumption at unitary 

level can lead to substantial errors when extrapolated to a global dataset. 

Similar options exist for fire fighting equipment which is a well documented 

equipment market, but the same is not true for most foams (with the possible 

exception of that used in domestic refrigerators) because building designs are 

not uniform either regionally (both climates and building methods vary) or by 

type. 

In conclusion, the usage or consumption patterns, put together within bottomup models, probably represent the most complete sectoral analysis available. 

This baseline is essential for adequate emissions assessment since the 

lifecycle emission profiles vary so substantially. However, the lack of full 

sectoral coverage continues to make the assessments incomplete. In the 

HFC/PFC Special Report, the coverage was further limited by the scope of 

focusing on those sectors which have selected substitutes containing HFCs 

and/or PFCs. These factors are important when considering the overall 
49

evaluation of consumption and emissions from a bottom-up perspective in that 

report. 

7.2 Sources of uncertainty regarding emission factors 

It can be seen that the use of ODS, which has taken place in sectors likely to 

develop banks, has been well studied but continues to be an area where global 

data can be improved. However, before these data can be translated into a 

meaningful assessment of emissions, there is a need to apply appropriate 

emission factors to the data. Since emissions vary through the lifecycle of an 

application, there is also a need to keep a disciplined record of the time series 

of use rather than just the cumulative value of historic use at any given time. 

In other words, it is not just sufficient to know ‘how much is in the bank’. It 

is also necessary to know ‘when it entered the bank and when it is likely to 

leave’. 

An additional complicating factor is that specific applications within a sector 

can have very different emissions profiles. This means that the use needs to 

be known at sub-sectoral level in order for the appropriate emission factors to 

be applied. This fact brings with it two potential sources of further 

uncertainty. The first relates to the access to historical time-series of usage at 

sub-sectoral (application) level. This further highlights the importance of 

genuinely designed bottom-up methods, which are generally better at 

characterising sub-sectoral definition. The second potential source is the 

statistical variation, which will always occur in practice around an average 

lifecycle characterisation. Most bottom-up models have point assumptions for 

matters such as the lifetime of a product or piece of equipment. Therefore, the 

retirement date of a piece of equipment is fixed by its year of manufacture. In 

reality, of course, some equipment will be retired earlier and some later. 

Taking the domestic refrigerator example, it is not likely that everyone who 

purchased a domestic refrigerator in 1990 will have chosen to throw it away in 

2005. Some will have been disposed of earlier and others will remain in 

operation for much longer than the assumed 15 year average. Therefore, to 

predict the end-of-life emissions for domestic refrigerators in 2005 is fraught 

with the potential of substantial over-estimation or under-estimation. This is 

particularly important when the bulk of emissions are assigned to end-of-life 

activities, as is the case with foams. Accordingly, foam emissions can carry 

with them substantial error bars when data are quoted on an annualised basis. 

However, it is usually expected to be much more accurate when longer time 

periods are reviewed, reflecting the fact that it is easier to predict that a given 

refrigerator will be retired in a ten-year time period than it is to make the same 

prediction for a one year time period. By way of example, the Table 7-1 

illustrates the expected errors in emission for different foam blowing agents. 
50

 Table 7-1 Expected errors in emission estimates for different foam blowing agents

Blowing Agent Annual Emission Uncertainty 

(2002) 

(tonnes / % of bank) 

Key Sources in 2002 Uncertainty Level 

Upper bound Lower bound 

 

CFC-11 +10,000/ 0.6% -10,000/ -0.6% 

 Domestic Appliance (EoL) 

 PU Boardstock (in-use) 

 PU Spray (in-use) 

High (for specific year) 

Low 

Low 

HCFC-141b +10,000/ 1.2% -5,000/ -0.6% 

 PU Boardstock (prod/use) 

 PU Spray (prod/use) 

 Dom. Appliance (prod/use) 

Medium (transition yr.) 

High (transition plus 

prod. losses) 

Low 

HCFC-142b +5,000/ 2.2% -0/ 0.0% XPS (prod/use) 

 PE rigid (prod/use) 

Medium (Prod. losses) 

High (activity) 

HFCs +2,500/ 21% -2,500/ -21% XPS (prod/use) High (HFC-152a 

emission rate) 

It can be seen from the table that uncertainties need to be specified for 

specific years. There may be some periods in which there is little 

uncertainty year-on-year about what is happening, but others in which much 

may be going on. 

Then there are potential sources of uncertainty from the emission factors 

themselves. These are usually assumptions based on estimates produced from 

small-scale studies within a given sector. Good examples would be the 

determination of blowing agent levels in refrigerators and steel faced panels 

after 25 years. From measurements made on retained blowing agent and 

comparisons with the original formulations, believed to have been used in 

their manufacture, it is evident that losses are very low in the use phase of 

these respective products (typically 0.25% per annum or less). This should 

come as little surprise for foams encapsulated with sheet steel. Of course, this 

assessment makes no judgement on the blowing agent that may have been lost 

during the formulation of the foam system or the manufacture of the product, 

which are steps that have to be assessed separately. 

In the case of refrigeration equipment, the servicing (top-up) demand can be 

another way of identifying the emissions from a sub-sector and backcalculating the relevant emission factors. 

Based on the uncertainty levels indicated in Table 2-2, the uncertainties in 

banks and emissions for each refrigeration sub-sector are summarised in Table 

7-2 below: 
51

Table 7-2 Uncertainties by sub-sector and overall 

 Bank Emissions * 

Domestic +/- 17.5% +/- 8% 

Commercial +/- 22.5% +/- 28% 

Industrial +/- 27.5% +/- 33% 

Transport +/- 22.5% +/- 28.5% 

Stationary AC +/- 17.5% +/- 22.5% 

Mobile AC +/- 12.5% +/- 18.5% 

 

Overall +/- 19% +/- 24.5% 

 Note: uncertainties in emissions are on an annual basis 

 

7.3 Reconciling the discrepancies 

The determination of emissions via the bottom-up method has previously 

revealed substantial discrepancies with the emissions calculated from 

atmospheric measurements of the same chemicals. However, closer analysis 

of these apparent discrepancies has found that even relatively small use of 

fluorocarbons in rapidly emitting uses in Article 5(1) countries (see Section 

7.1) can dominate emissions for specific chemicals (e.g. CFC-11) in specific 

years (IPCC TEAP, 2005). This implies that there is a need to investigate 

production data, both from producers as reported to AFEAS and from 

countries as submitted to UNEP under the Montreal Protocol (Article 7 on 

data reporting), in order to determine where such emissions might appear. 

However, as noted previously, the key weakness in the UNEP dataset is that it 

makes no provision for the recording of use patterns. Nonetheless, the 

quantification of the gap between UNEP production and consumption data 

and AFEAS data is essential. 

The emission factors used in the AFEAS reports themselves are derived from 

a consideration of the respective emission patterns and release delays for each 

sector but are not always as sophisticated as those used in the bottom-up 

assessments. By way of an example, the allocation of all HCFC-141b foam 

sales to “closed-cell foams” may be inappropriate in view of uses in integral 

skin and other more rapid-release foam applications. 

This said, estimates of atmospheric concentrations based on production 

statistics provided by manufacturers and national governments coupled with 

historical emission factors were, until recently, a good match with the 

observations, largely because of the dominance of rapid-release applications 

in non-Article 5(1) countries. However, as the detailed assessment of 

delayed-release applications has become more important in non-Article 5(1) 

countries and the gap between UNEP data and AFEAS data has increased, 

reflecting higher levels of activity in Article 5(1) countries, the lack of use 

pattern data via the UNEP reporting structure is now a key impediment, 

particularly where usage might be occurring in rapid-release applications. 
52

The improvement of knowledge about the use of the individual chemicals, 

both in the non-Article 5(1) and in the Article 5(1) countries, as well as 

uncertainties in emissions factors from banks following the bottom-up method 

remains a key objective. This has implications for the calculation of emission 

scenarios for the period 2002-2015, in particular the contributions from 

Article 5(1) countries. It may therefore be the case that the emissions are 

significantly larger than calculated via the bottom-up method for refrigeration 

and foams only because of additional contributions from rapid-release 

applications. 

In addition, the emission factors applied to HCFCs and HFCs were derived 

from those developed earlier for CFCs and HCFC-22. However, there have 

been considerable changes in use practices in the wake of the Montreal 

Protocol and emission factors are subject to continual review. The view is 

(IPCC TEAP, 2005) that variation and uncertainties in emission factors per se 

are less significant overall than uncertainties in overall use pattern 

distributions between rapid-release applications and the delayed-release 

applications represented by refrigeration and foams. 

This implies that, in the near future, further study is needed of the use patterns 

for the total production forecast for the period 2002-2015 in both the nonArticle 5(1) and the Article 5(1) countries. Further study will also be needed 

to make more precise estimates of future emissions from banks in 

refrigeration and foams, given the accuracy of calculations of the size of the 

banks and the emissions derived from them, as well as servicing practices, and 

issues relating to recovery and recycling and end-of-life. 
53

8 Concluding remarks 

The Special Report concludes that the remaining banked ODSs, together with 

possible future ODS use in Article 5(1) countries, are significant sources of 

ozone depletion emissions with a related climate change impact over the next 

50-100 years. There continues to be some debate about the size of these 

banks and on whether mitigation scenarios can be practically effective in 

reducing emissions, from a technical and cost point of view. However, there 

are already demonstrable savings being achieved in relevant sub-sectors (e.g. 

domestic refrigeration) in various regions of the world. 

In this Supplement Report, demand, banks and emissions are considered for 

the world-total, as well as for the non-Article 5(1) and the Article 5(1) 

countries separately. This will yield insight on the percentage release from 

banks in different regions of the world, where banks (and emissions) may be 

completely different in composition. 

The time-scale for action varies by sector and, for instance, foams in buildings 

containing ODS are unlikely to be reaching the waste stream in any 

significant measure prior to 2015. In contrast, most CFCs will have already 

been emitted from the refrigerant bank by 2015 unless action is taken to 

prevent this. 

The best estimate of the year when the EESC (see further chapter 6) is 

projected to return to the 1980 values for the baseline scenario of (WMO, 

2003) is 2044, if the banks of all ODSs are as estimated in (WMO, 2003). If 

the banks of CFCs and HCFCs are as estimated in Chapter 3, this return to the 

1980 values would be estimated to occur in the year 2046. Taking into 

account the emissions from servicing refrigeration and AC equipment, which 

will add to the emissions from the banks, the return of the EESC to 1980 

values levels might be delayed by another two years, at maximum (2048). 

Destruction of all banks in refrigeration and AC equipment as of 2008 (at end 

of life) may lead to a return of the EESC to 1980 values around the year 2046. 

Mitigation costs for emissions from banks are significantly greater than those 

costs traditionally supported for ODS phase-out but may be economically 

justified when the additional value of greenhouse gas reduction is accounted. 

It therefore seems unlikely that it will be possible to extend mandates for 

recovery unless the cost-effectiveness calculation includes greenhouse gas 

benefits. At sectoral level, the halon bank would fail on both accounts due to 

the high expenses involved in trying to collect small quantities widely 

dispersed, as well as the fact that halons are contributing to a net global 

cooling effect. For CFCs, refrigerant recovery and collection is estimated at 

US $2 per ODP kg (and an additional US $3 per ODP kg for destruction) with 

foam blowing agent recovery an order of magnitude greater. It should be 
54

noted that these values increase further in the case of HCFC recovery (and 

destruction). 

There is therefore clearly need for further research on more cost-effective 

destruction techniques (e.g. direct foam incineration). Where relevant, the 

cost of avoiding additional banks of ODSs and GHGs, by an accelerated ODS 

phase-out using appropriate alternative technologies, may be less than for 

collection and destruction. An alternative technology that increases the 

overall climate change impact of the application cannot be described as 

appropriate. 

The relationship between halon, refrigerant and blowing agent options 

changes considerably if any credit is given for the greenhouse gas component 

of any recovery measure. This would need to be reflected in some fiscal 

incentive for destruction, possibly linked with existing emission trading 

options for greenhouse gases. 

Finally, in Article 5(1) countries, the implication of collection and recovery 

costs are likely to be greater than in non-Article 5(1) countries owing to the 

lack of infra-structure. Indeed, end-of-life concepts are very different in 

Article 5(1) countries from the ones in non-Article 5(1) countries and the 

degree of re-use is generally much higher. 
55

9 References 

Ashford, P., D. Clodic, A. McCulloch, L. Kuijpers, 2004a: Emission profiles 

from the foam and refrigeration sectors compared with atmospheric 

concentrations, part 1 - Methodology and data. International Journal of 

Refrigeration, 27(7), 687–700 

Ashford, P., D. Clodic, A. McCulloch, L. Kuijpers, 2004b: Emission profiles 

from the foam and refrigeration sectors compared with atmospheric 

concentrations, part 2 - Results and discussion. International Journal of 

Refrigeration, 27(7), 701–716 

Ashford, P., D. Clodic, A. McCulloch, L. Kuijpers, 2004c: Determination of 

Comparative HCFC and HFC Emission Profiles for the Foam and 

Refrigeration Sectors until 2015. Part 1: Refrigerant Emission Profiles (L. 

Palandre and D. Clodic, Armines, Paris, France, 132 pp.), Part 2: Foam Sector 

(P. Ashford, Caleb Management Services, Bristol, UK, 238 pp.), Part 3: Total 

Emissions and Global Atmospheric Concentrations (A. McCulloch, Marbury 

Technical Consulting, Comberbach, UK, 77 pp.). Reports prepared for the 

French ADEME and the US EPA. 

IPCC TEAP, 2005: IPCC/TEAP Special Report on Safeguarding the ozone 

Layer and the Global Climate System: Issues related to Hydrofluorocarbons 

and Perfluorocarbons. Prepared by Working Group I and III of the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Technology and 

Economic Assessment Panel under the Montreal Protocol (Metz, B., L. 

Kuijpers, S. Solomon, S.O. Andersen, O. Davidson, J. Pons, D. de Jager, T. 

Kestin, M. Manning, and L.A. Meyer (editors). Cambridge University Press, 

Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 488 pp 

Jeffs, M., Ashford, P., Albach and Kotaji, 2004: Emerging Usage Patterns for 

HFCs in the Foams Sector in the light of Responsible Use Patterns. 

Proceedings of the Earth Technologies Forum, Washington, April 2004. 

Swedish EPA, 1996, Stena freonatervinning Projekt SNVIII (in Swedish 

only) 

UNEP TEAP, 2002: Report of the Task Force on Collection, Recovery and 

Storage and Report of the Task Force on Destruction Technologies. Report of 

the Technology and Economic Assessment Panel April 2002, Volume 3 

(consisting of Volume 3A and 3B). (W. Brunner, J. Pons and S.O. Andersen, 

editors of Volume 3A, and S. Devotta, A. Finkelstein and L. Kuijpers, editors 

of Volume 3B). UNEP, UNON Nairobi, ISBN 92-807-2229-8 

Verdonik, D., 2005: Personal Communication on the corrected HTOC model 

calculations for halon-1211, 31 October 2005 

WMO, 2003: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002. Global Ozone 

Research and Monitoring Project – Report No. 47, World Meteorological 

Organization, Geneva, 498 pp 

57

10 Annexes 

Detailed tables on demand, banks and emission data 2002-2015 

The following tables show the data that were presented in the IPCC/TEAP 

Special Report on Ozone and Climate (SROC) (IPCC TEAP, 2005) and the 

assessed literature supporting this report (e.g. Ashford et al., 2004). 

Please note that the tables include corrected data on banks and emissions for 

halon-1211 in the fire protection sector and hence data for halons and fire 

protection differ from the data reported in the IPCC/TEAP Special Report. 

The 2002 halon-1211 emission data are changed from 17 to 8 product ktonnes 

per year, whereas 2015 Business-As-Usual projections are changed from 1.6 

to 4.6 product ktonnes per year 

(Verdonik, 2005). 

The data on demand, banks and emissions expressed in global warming 

potential (GWP in MtCO2-eq) and ozone depletion potential (ODP in ODP 

ktonnes) are calculated using the GWPs for direct radiative forcing for a 100-

year time horizon and ODPs as reported in (IPCC TEAP, 2005). 

For HFC-23 by-product emissions, non-medical aerosols and solvents no 

regional breakdown in demand, banks and emissions is available. 

Key to the tables 

‘Demand’ refers to the net use of fluorocarbons and their alternatives. Due to 

reuse, demand data may exceed annual production data. 

‘Banks’ are the total amount of substances contained in existing equipment, 

chemical stockpiles, foams and other products not yet released to the 

atmosphere or destroyed in destruction facilities. 

‘Emissions’ refer to direct emissions only. Indirect energy-related greenhouse 

gas emissions are not included in the tables. 

BAU-2015: Projections for 2015 in the Business-As-Usual Scenario 

MIT-2015: Projections for 2015 in the Mitigation Scenario 

Red-2015: Reduction potential in 2015: difference between the 

projections for the Business-As-Usual and the Mitigation 

Scenario. 
Demand WORLD

Per group Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Halons 4 10 2

CFCs 169 14 8 5 1,649 125 77 48 16HCFCs 496 551 391 160 761 905 623 282 3HFCs 207 663 466 197 449 1,323 889 434PFCs 0.11 0.02 0.02 1.0 0.2 0.2Total incl halons 876 1,228 866 363 2,869 2,353 1,589 763 21Total excl halons 872 1,228 866 363 2,859 2,353 1,589 763 19

Per sector Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Refrigeration 337 578 396 182 1,390 1,335 867 467 8Stationary Air Conditioning 202 300 212 88 407 512 354 158 1Mobile Air Conditioning 155 192 142 50 740 296 222 74 5Foams 150 123 80 43 204 119 69 50 2Medical Aerosols 12 15 15 75 40 26 14 Fire Protection 8 4 4 23 14 14 2HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 12 17 17 32 37 37 Total incl halons 876 1,228 866 363 2,869 2,353 1,589 763 21

Per subsector Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Domestic Refrigeration 15 22 8 14 83 38 17 21 Commercial Refrigeration 277 502 354 148 1,160 1,144 753 391 7Transport Refrigeration 6 8 6 2 20 23 17 6 Industrial Refrigeration 39 46 28 17 127 129 79 50 Stationary Air Conditioning 202 300 212 88 407 512 354 158 1Mobile Air Conditioning 155 192 142 50 740 296 222 74 5Foams 150 123 80 43 204 119 69 50 2Medical Aerosols 12 15 15 75 40 26 14 Fire Protection 8 4 4 23 14 14 2HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 12 17 17 32 37 37 Total incl halons 876 1,228 866 363 2,869 2,353 1,589 763 21
Demand WORLD

Halons Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire Protection 4 10 2

HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal 4 10 2

CFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Refrigeration 82 6 4 2 840 53 38 15 7Stationary Air Conditioning 11 3 2 2 86 26 14 12 1Mobile Air Conditioning 56 3 2 0 598 28 25 4 5Foams 11 56 1

Medical Aerosols 8 2 2 69 17 17 Fire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal 169 14 8 5 1,649 125 77 48 16

HCFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Refrigeration 188 378 269 109 332 671 478 194 Stationary Air Conditioning 165 106 55 51 281 185 97 88 Mobile Air Conditioning 3 1 1 0 5 2 2 0 Foams 128 50 50 136 37 37 1Medical AerosolsFire Protection 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 11 16 16 6 9 9 Total 496 551 391 160 761 905 623 282 3
Demand WORLD

HFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Refrigeration 66 194 123 71 218 611 351 259Stationary Air Conditioning 25 190 155 35 40 301 243 58Mobile Air Conditioning 97 188 138 50 136 265 195 70Foams 11 73 30 43 11 82 32 50Medical Aerosols 4 13 15 -2 6 23 26 -4Fire Protection 3 4 4 12 14 14HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 1 1 1 25 27 27Total 207 663 466 197 449 1,323 889 434

PFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire Protection 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.1 0.1 0.1HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.1Total 0.11 0.02 0.02 1.0 0.2 0.2
Demand

Per group

HalonsCFCsHCFCsHFCsPFCsTotal incl halonsTotal excl halons

Per sector

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

Per subsector

Domestic RefrigerationCommercial RefrigerationTransport RefrigerationIndustrial RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

A. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

52 3 2 1 515 28 17 11 5

268 47 18 29 391 79 30 49 1188 505 326 179 392 1,002 607 395

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.1 0.1 0.1

508 555 346 209 1,298 1,109 654 455 7508 555 346 209 1,298 1,109 654 455 7

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

113 146 85 61 329 497 260 237 138 185 124 61 261 307 203 105 1126 137 92 45 507 193 130 63 3118 73 30 43 132 82 32 50 1

9 11 11 58 19 19 3 3 3 10 9 9 

508 555 346 209 1,298 1,109 654 455 7

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

6 7 1 6 9 10 2 8 

81 110 67 43 234 396 204 192 

4 6 4 2 13 19 14 5 

23 23 13 10 73 73 41 32 

138 185 124 61 261 307 203 105 1126 137 92 45 507 193 130 63 3118 73 30 43 132 82 32 50 1

9 11 11 58 19 19 3 3 3 10 9 9 

508 555 346 209 1,298 1,109 654 455 7

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available NNo regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available N
Demand

Halons

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

CFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

HCFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

A. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

4 2 1 1 41 16 11 5 6 2 1 1 43 12 6 6 

35 0 0 0 379 0 0 0 3

6 52 

52 3 2 1 515 28 17 11 5

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

49 19 12 7 84 32 20 12 

111 28 6 22 185 46 9 37 

1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 

107 121 1

0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0

268 47 18 29 391 79 30 49 1

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available NNo regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available N
Demand

HFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

PFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

A. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

60 126 72 53 205 449 229 22121 156 118 38 33 249 187 6290 137 92 45 127 193 130 6311 73 30 43 11 82 32 50

3 11 11 6 19 193 3 3 10 9 9

188 505 326 179 392 1,002 607 395

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.1 0.1 0.10.01 0.01 0.01 0.1 0.1 0.1

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available NNo regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available N
Demand

Per group

HalonsCFCsHCFCsHFCsPFCsTotal incl halonsTotal excl halons

Per sector

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

Per subsector

Domestic RefrigerationCommercial RefrigerationTransport RefrigerationIndustrial RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

B. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

4 10 2

117 10 6 4 1,134 97 60 37 11217 489 358 131 364 817 584 233 1

18 157 139 18 32 294 255 39

0.001 0.002 0.002 0.01 0.01 0.01

356 656 503 153 1,539 1,207 899 308 14352 656 503 153 1,529 1,207 899 308 12

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

224 431 310 121 1,060 837 608 230 7

64 114 88 26 146 205 151 54 29 55 49 6 232 102 91 11 232 50 50 0 72 37 37 0 1

2 4 4 17 21 7 14 4 1 1 13 5 5 2

356 656 503 153 1,539 1,207 899 308 14

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

9 16 7 9 74 28 16 13 

197 391 287 105 926 748 549 199 6

1 2 1 0 7 4 3 1 

17 23 16 7 53 56 39 17 64 114 88 26 146 205 151 54 29 55 49 6 232 102 91 11 232 50 50 0 72 37 37 0 1

2 4 4 17 21 7 14 4 1 1 13 5 5 2

356 656 503 153 1,539 1,207 899 308 14

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available 
Demand

Halons

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

CFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

HCFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

B. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

4 10 24 10 2

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

78 4 3 1 799 37 27 10 7

5 2 1 1 43 14 8 6 

20 3 2 0 219 28 25 4 211 56 1

2 2 2 16 17 17 

117 10 6 4 1,134 97 60 37 11

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

139 359 257 102 248 639 457 182 

55 78 50 29 97 139 88 51 

2 1 1 0 4 2 2 0 

21 50 50 16 37 37 

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.00

217 489 358 131 364 817 584 233 1

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available 
Demand

HFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

PFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

B. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

7 69 51 18 13 161 123 384 34 37 -3 6 52 56 -46 51 46 5 9 72 65 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 2 4 -2 0 4 7 -41 1 1 3 5 5

18 157 139 18 32 294 255 39

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

0.001 0.002 0.002 0.01 0.01 0.010.001 0.002 0.002 0.01 0.01 0.01

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available 
Demand

Per group

HalonsCFCsHCFCsHFCsPFCsTotal incl halonsTotal excl halons

Per sector

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

Per subsector

Domestic RefrigerationCommercial RefrigerationTransport RefrigerationIndustrial RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

O. NO REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPECIFIED (World Total)

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

11 16 16 6 9 9 

1 1 1 25 27 27

0.10 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.1

12 17 17 32 37 37 12 17 17 32 37 37 

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

12 17 17 32 37 37 12 17 17 32 37 37 

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

12 17 17 32 37 37 12 17 17 32 37 37 
Demand

Halons

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

CFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

HCFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

O. NO REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPECIFIED (World Total)

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

11 16 16 6 9 9 11 16 16 6 9 9 
Demand

HFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

PFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

O. NO REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPECIFIED (World Total)

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

1 1 1 25 27 271 1 1 25 27 27

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne ODP 

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

0.10 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.10.10 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.1
Banks WORLD

Per group Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Halons 168 55 55 531 229 229 1,17CFCs 2,430 1,411 1,407 4 15,749 8,302 8,258 43 2,41HCFCs 2,651 3,317 3,017 300 3,841 4,871 4,352 520 19HFCs 544 2,950 2,613 337 1,103 5,227 4,527 700PFCs 1 1 1 5 4 4Total incl halons 5,793 7,735 7,093 641 21,229 18,633 17,370 1,263 3,77Total excl halons 5,625 7,679 7,038 641 20,698 18,404 17,141 1,263 2,60

Per sector Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Refrigeration 971 1,675 1,455 221 4,751 4,157 3,548 609 33Stationary Air Conditioning 1,192 1,856 1,689 166 2,509 3,232 2,928 304 13Mobile Air Conditioning 418 671 541 131 1,987 1,076 891 185 15Foams 2,996 3,374 3,250 123 11,270 9,626 9,475 151 1,97Medical Aerosols 12 15 15 75 40 26 14 Fire Protection 191 126 126 606 465 465 1,17HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 12 17 17 32 37 37 Total incl halons 5,793 7,735 7,093 641 21,229 18,633 17,370 1,263 3,77

Per subsector Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Domestic Refrigeration 157 226 140 87 1,218 664 523 141 10Commercial Refrigeration 606 1,193 1,087 107 2,863 2,746 2,355 391 19Transport Refrigeration 16 23 23 57 72 72 Industrial Refrigeration 192 233 205 28 613 676 598 77 3Stationary Air Conditioning 1,192 1,856 1,689 166 2,509 3,232 2,928 304 13Mobile Air Conditioning 418 671 541 131 1,987 1,076 891 185 15Foams 2,996 3,374 3,250 123 11,270 9,626 9,475 151 1,97Medical Aerosols 12 15 15 75 40 26 14 Fire Protection 191 126 126 606 465 465 1,17HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 12 17 17 32 37 37 Total incl halons 5,793 7,735 7,093 641 21,229 18,633 17,370 1,263 3,77
Banks WORLD

Halons Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire Protection 168 55 55 531 229 229 1,17HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal 168 55 55 531 229 229 1,17

CFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Refrigeration 330 64 62 2 3,423 653 627 26 31Stationary Air Conditioning 84 27 27 0 631 208 208 0 8Mobile Air Conditioning 149 13 13 0 1,600 138 138 0 14Foams 1,858 1,305 1,305 10,026 7,286 7,286 1,85Medical Aerosols 8 2 2 69 17 17 Fire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal 2,430 1,411 1,407 4 15,749 8,302 8,258 43 2,41

HCFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Refrigeration 461 891 825 66 810 1,582 1,466 117 2Stationary Air Conditioning 1,028 878 644 233 1,755 1,536 1,134 402 5Mobile Air Conditioning 20 23 23 0 36 42 41 1 Foams 1,126 1,502 1,502 1,229 1,696 1,696 11Medical AerosolsFire Protection 4 6 6 5 6 6 HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 11 16 16 6 9 9 Total 2,651 3,317 3,017 300 3,841 4,871 4,352 520 19
Banks WORLD

HFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Refrigeration 180 720 568 153 518 1,922 1,455 467Stationary Air Conditioning 81 951 1,018 -67 123 1,488 1,586 -99Mobile Air Conditioning 249 635 505 131 350 896 712 184Foams 12 566 443 123 16 644 494 151Medical Aerosols 4 13 15 -2 6 23 26 -4Fire Protection 19 64 64 65 226 226HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 1 1 1 25 27 27Total 544 2,950 2,613 337 1,103 5,227 4,527 700

PFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire Protection 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.1 4.3 4.3HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 0.1 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.1Total 0.6 0.5 0.5 5 4 4
Banks

Per group

HalonsCFCsHCFCsHFCsPFCsTotal incl halonsTotal excl halons

Per sector

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

Per subsector

Domestic RefrigerationCommercial RefrigerationTransport RefrigerationIndustrial RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

A. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

80 40 40 330 181 181 65

1,669 1,132 1,132 0 10,235 6,535 6,535 0 1,661,997 1,479 1,299 180 2,773 2,161 1,852 308 15

494 2,327 2,015 312 992 4,089 3,435 655

0.4 0.5 0.5 4 4 4

4,241 4,978 4,486 493 14,334 12,970 12,007 963 2,484,161 4,939 4,446 493 14,004 12,789 11,826 963 1,82

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

406 508 415 94 1,423 1,559 1,185 374 6868 1,220 1,075 146 1,721 2,060 1,805 254 8352 492 361 130 1,500 695 511 184 10

2,507 2,660 2,536 123 9,241 8,298 8,147 151 1,55

9 11 11 58 19 19 

99 87 87 390 339 339 65

4,241 4,978 4,486 493 14,334 12,970 12,007 963 2,48

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

80 79 42 37 467 114 62 52 3

200 285 249 36 548 990 731 258 

12 18 18 38 58 58 

115 127 106 20 370 398 334 64 2868 1,220 1,075 146 1,721 2,060 1,805 254 8352 492 361 130 1,500 695 511 184 10

2,507 2,660 2,536 123 9,241 8,298 8,147 151 1,55

9 11 11 58 19 19 

99 87 87 390 339 339 65

4,241 4,978 4,486 493 14,334 12,970 12,007 963 2,48

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available NNo regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available N
Banks

Halons

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

CFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

HCFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

A. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

80 40 40 330 181 181 6580 40 40 330 181 181 65

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

61 10 10 0 622 95 95 0 550 14 14 0 354 98 98 0 5

108 0 0 0 1,153 1 0 0 10

1,445 1,108 1,108 8,054 6,341 6,341 1,44

6 52 

1,669 1,132 1,132 0 10,235 6,535 6,535 0 1,66

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

183 79 76 3 315 138 132 6 751 405 228 177 1,265 699 397 302 3

9 4 3 0 16 6 6 1 

1,050 986 986 1,172 1,313 1,313 11

4 5 5 5 5 5 

1,997 1,479 1,299 180 2,773 2,161 1,852 308 15

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available NNo regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available N
Banks

HFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

PFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

A. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

163 418 328 90 486 1,326 958 369

67 801 833 -31 102 1,262 1,310 -48

235 488 358 130 331 689 505 183

12 566 443 123 16 644 494 151

3 11 11 6 19 19

15 42 42 51 149 149

494 2,327 2,015 312 992 4,089 3,435 655

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

0.4 0.5 0.5 4 4 40.4 0.5 0.5 4 4 4

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available NNo regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available N
Banks

Per group

HalonsCFCsHCFCsHFCsPFCsTotal incl halonsTotal excl halons

Per sector

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

Per subsector

Domestic RefrigerationCommercial RefrigerationTransport RefrigerationIndustrial RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

B. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

88 16 16 201 48 48 51

760 280 275 4 5,514 1,767 1,724 43 74643 1,822 1,703 119 1,062 2,701 2,490 211 3

49 622 597 25 86 1,110 1,065 45

0 0 0 0 0 0

1,540 2,740 2,591 149 6,864 5,626 5,326 300 1,291,452 2,724 2,575 149 6,663 5,578 5,279 300 78

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

565 1,167 1,040 127 3,328 2,598 2,363 235 27325 635 615 21 787 1,172 1,123 50 4

67 180 179 1 487 380 379 1 4

490 714 714 0 2,029 1,328 1,328 0 42

2 4 4 17 21 7 14 

92 39 39 216 126 126 51

1,540 2,740 2,591 149 6,864 5,626 5,326 300 1,29

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

77 148 98 50 751 550 461 89 6

406 908 838 70 2,316 1,757 1,624 133 18

4 6 6 19 14 14 

78 106 99 7 243 278 264 14 1

325 635 615 21 787 1,172 1,123 50 4

67 180 179 1 487 380 379 1 4

490 714 714 0 2,029 1,328 1,328 0 42

2 4 4 17 21 7 14 

92 39 39 216 126 126 51

1,540 2,740 2,591 149 6,864 5,626 5,326 300 1,29

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available NNo regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available N
Banks

Halons

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

CFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

HCFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

B. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

88 16 16 201 48 48 5188 16 16 201 48 48 51

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

269 54 52 2 2,801 558 532 26 25

34 13 13 0 277 109 109 0 342 13 13 0 448 137 137 0 4

414 198 198 1,972 945 945 41

2 2 2 16 17 17 

760 280 275 4 5,514 1,767 1,724 43 74

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

278 812 749 62 495 1,444 1,333 111 1276 473 416 57 489 837 737 100 1

11 20 20 0 20 35 35 0 76 516 516 57 383 383 

1 1 1 1 1 1 

643 1,822 1,703 119 1,062 2,701 2,490 211 3

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available NNo regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available N
Banks

HFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

PFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

B. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

17 302 239 62 32 596 498 9814 149 185 -36 21 226 276 -5114 147 147 1 19 208 207 1

0 0 0 0 0 0

0 2 4 -2 0 4 7 -44 22 22 14 77 77

49 622 597 25 86 1,110 1,065 45

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

0.04 0.05 0.05 0.3 0.4 0.40.04 0.05 0.05 0.3 0.4 0.4

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available NNo regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available N
Banks

Per group

HalonsCFCsHCFCsHFCsPFCsTotal incl halonsTotal excl halons

Per sector

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

Per subsector

Domestic RefrigerationCommercial RefrigerationTransport RefrigerationIndustrial RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

O. NO REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPECIFIED (World Total)

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

11 16 16 6 9 9 

1 1 1 25 27 27

0.10 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.1

12 17 17 32 37 37 12 17 17 32 37 37 

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

12 17 17 32 37 37 12 17 17 32 37 37 

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

12 17 17 32 37 37 12 17 17 32 37 37 
Banks

Halons

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

CFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

HCFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

O. NO REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPECIFIED (World Total)

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

11 16 16 6 9 9 11 16 16 6 9 9 
Banks

HFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

PFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

O. NO REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPECIFIED (World Total)

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

1 1 1 25 27 271 1 1 25 27 27

Product GWPSROC ODPSROC

ktonne MtCO2-eq ktonne ODP

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 200

0.1 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.10.1 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.1
Emissions WORLD

Per group Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

Halons 10 6 6 30 18 18 CFCs 174 43 30 13 1,652 338 221 117 HCFCs 271 492 292 200 448 828 484 344 HFCs 124 415 184 231 434 1,153 416 737PFCs 0.11 0.02 0.02 1.0 0.2 0.2Total incl halons 580 956 512 444 2,565 2,337 1,139 1,198 Total excl halons 570 950 506 444 2,535 2,319 1,121 1,198 

Per sector Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

Refrigeration 232 450 263 187 1,061 1,097 607 490 Stationary Air Conditioning 115 198 91 108 271 370 170 200 Mobile Air Conditioning 134 190 75 115 749 315 136 179 Foams 51 55 42 13 152 124 107 17 Medical Aerosols 12 15 15 75 40 26 14 Fire Protection 11 7 7 31 22 22 HFC-23 by-product 14 23 2 21 195 332 33 299Non-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 12 17 17 32 37 37 Total incl halons 580 956 512 444 2,565 2,337 1,139 1,198 

Per subsector Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

Domestic Refrigeration 9 13 6 7 91 65 35 30 Commercial Refrigeration 185 393 230 162 837 902 494 409 Transport Refrigeration 6 9 5 3 23 26 15 10 Industrial Refrigeration 32 35 21 14 110 104 63 41 Stationary Air Conditioning 115 198 91 108 271 370 170 200 Mobile Air Conditioning 134 190 75 115 749 315 136 179 Foams 51 55 42 13 152 124 107 17 Medical Aerosols 12 15 15 75 40 26 14 Fire Protection 11 7 7 31 22 22 HFC-23 by-product 14 23 2 21 195 332 33 299Non-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 12 17 17 32 37 37 Total incl halons 580 956 512 444 2,565 2,337 1,139 1,198 
Emissions WORLD

Halons Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire Protection 10 6 6 30 18 18 HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal 10 6 6 30 18 18 

CFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 Refrigeration 71 13 8 5 727 136 84 53 Stationary Air Conditioning 13 7 3 3 99 50 24 26 Mobile Air Conditioning 60 5 3 2 641 49 32 17 Foams 22 16 15 1 117 85 81 4 Medical Aerosols 8 2 2 69 17 17 Fire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal 174 43 30 13 1,652 338 221 117 

HCFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 Refrigeration 132 321 202 119 232 570 359 210 Stationary Air Conditioning 96 124 50 74 164 210 86 124 Mobile Air Conditioning 8 11 7 4 15 19 12 7 Foams 24 21 17 4 32 20 17 3 Medical AerosolsFire Protection 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 11 16 16 6 9 9 Total 271 492 292 200 448 828 484 344 
Emissions WORLD

HFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 Refrigeration 29 115 52 63 102 391 164 227Stationary Air Conditioning 6 68 38 30 9 109 60 49Mobile Air Conditioning 66 175 65 110 93 247 92 155Foams 5 18 9 9 3 18 9 10Medical Aerosols 4 13 15 -2 6 23 26 -4Fire Protection 0.3 1 1 1 4 4HFC-23 by-product 14 23 2 21 195 332 33 299Non-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 1 1 1 25 27 27Total 124 415 184 231 434 1,153 416 737

PFCs Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

per sector 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire Protection 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.1 0.1 0.1HFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and Solvents 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.1Total 0.11 0.02 0.02 1.0 0.2 0.2
Emissions

Per group

HalonsCFCsHCFCsHFCsPFCsTotal incl halonsTotal excl halons

Per sector

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

Per subsector

Domestic RefrigerationCommercial RefrigerationTransport RefrigerationIndustrial RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

A. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

5 2 2 16 8 8 

88 17 15 2 814 103 88 16 

133 96 38 58 218 152 59 93 103 305 126 179 204 627 250 376

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.1 0.1 0.1

329 419 181 238 1,253 890 405 485 324 417 179 238 1,236 882 397 485 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

85 106 45 61 293 355 141 214 75 123 49 74 165 219 87 132 

113 134 41 93 603 191 59 132 

42 42 32 10 116 96 88 8 

9 11 11 58 19 19 5 3 3 17 11 11 

329 419 181 238 1,253 890 405 485 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

5 5 1 4 52 7 2 5 

56 77 30 47 162 272 96 176 

4 6 3 3 13 20 11 9 

19 18 10 8 66 56 32 24 75 123 49 74 165 219 87 132 

113 134 41 93 603 191 59 132 

42 42 32 10 116 96 88 8 

9 11 11 58 19 19 5 3 3 17 11 11 

329 419 181 238 1,253 890 405 485 

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available 
Emissions

Halons

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

CFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

HCFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

A. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

5 2 2 16 8 8 5 2 2 16 8 8 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

12 2 1 1 117 15 11 5 

7 3 1 2 53 24 10 15 

47 0 0 0 508 0 0 0 16 12 12 -1 84 64 67 -4 

6 52 

88 17 15 2 814 103 88 16 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

45 18 9 9 78 31 16 15 63 63 18 45 105 104 30 74 

4 2 1 1 7 3 1 2 

21 12 10 3 29 14 12 2 

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0

133 96 38 58 218 152 59 93 

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available 
Emissions

HFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

PFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

A. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

28 86 35 52 99 308 114 194

5 56 30 26 7 91 48 43

62 133 41 92 88 187 57 130

5 18 9 9 3 18 9 103 11 11 6 19 19

0.3 1 1 1 3 3

103 305 126 179 204 627 250 376

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.1 0.1 0.10.01 0.01 0.01 0.1 0.1 0.1

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available 
Emissions

Per group

HalonsCFCsHCFCsHFCsPFCsTotal incl halonsTotal excl halons

Per sector

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

Per subsector

Domestic RefrigerationCommercial RefrigerationTransport RefrigerationIndustrial RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

B. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

6 4 4 13 9 9 

86 26 15 11 838 234 133 101 

128 380 238 142 223 667 416 251 

6 86 55 32 11 167 105 61

0.001 0.001 0.001 0.01 0.01 0.01

226 496 311 185 1,086 1,078 664 414 220 492 307 185 1,072 1,068 654 414 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

148 343 218 126 768 743 467 276 

40 76 42 34 107 151 83 68 21 56 34 22 146 124 77 47 10 13 10 3 35 28 19 9 

2 4 4 17 21 7 14 6 4 4 14 11 11 

226 496 311 185 1,086 1,078 664 414 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

4 8 4 4 39 58 33 25 

129 316 200 115 675 631 398 233 

2 3 2 1 10 6 5 2 

13 17 11 6 44 47 31 16 40 76 42 34 107 151 83 68 21 56 34 22 146 124 77 47 10 13 10 3 35 28 19 9 

2 4 4 17 21 7 14 6 4 4 14 11 11 

226 496 311 185 1,086 1,078 664 414 

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available 
Emissions

Halons

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

CFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

HCFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

B. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

6 4 4 13 9 9 6 4 4 13 9 9 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

60 12 7 5 610 121 73 48 

6 3 2 1 46 26 14 12 

12 5 3 2 133 49 32 17 

6 4 3 2 33 22 14 8 2 2 2 16 17 17 

86 26 15 11 838 234 133 101 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

87 302 193 109 154 538 343 195 33 60 32 29 59 107 56 50 

4 9 6 3 8 16 11 5 3 8 7 1 2 6 5 1 

0.01 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.03 0

128 380 238 142 223 667 416 251 

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available 
Emissions

HFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

PFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

B. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

1 29 17 12 3 84 50 331 12 8 4 2 18 12 64 42 25 18 5 60 35 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 2 4 -2 0 4 7 -4

0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 1 1

6 86 55 32 11 167 105 61

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

0.001 0.001 0.001 0.01 0.01 0.010.001 0.001 0.001 0.01 0.01 0.01

No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available No regional breakdown available 
Emissions

Per group

HalonsCFCsHCFCsHFCsPFCsTotal incl halonsTotal excl halons

Per sector

RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

Per subsector

Domestic RefrigerationCommercial RefrigerationTransport RefrigerationIndustrial RefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal incl halons

O. NO REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPECIFIED (World Total)

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

11 16 16 6 9 9 15 24 3 21 220 359 60 299

0.10 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.1

26 40 19 21 226 369 70 299 26 40 19 21 226 369 70 299 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

14 23 2 21 195 332 33 29912 17 17 32 37 37 26 40 19 21 226 369 70 299 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

14 23 2 21 195 332 33 29912 17 17 32 37 37 26 40 19 21 226 369 70 299 
Emissions

Halons

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

CFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

HCFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

O. NO REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPECIFIED (World Total)

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

11 16 16 6 9 9 11 16 16 6 9 9 
Emissions

HFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

PFCs

per sectorRefrigerationStationary Air ConditioningMobile Air ConditioningFoamsMedical AerosolsFire ProtectionHFC-23 by-productNon-Medical Aerosols and SolventsTotal

O. NO REGIONAL BREAKDOWN SPECIFIED (World Total)

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

14 23 2 21 195 332 33 299

1 1 1 25 27 27

15 24 3 21 220 359 60 299

Product GWPSROC ODPSR

ktonne yr-1 MtCO2-eq yr-1 ktonne O

2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 2002 BAU-2015 MIT-2015 Red-2015 

0.10 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.10.10 0.01 0.01 0.9 0.1 0.1
Graphs on demand, banks and emission data 2002-2015 

The following graphs are based on the tables presented in the previous 

section. See the introduction of section 10.1 for some general remarks 

regarding the underlying data. 

Legend 

 

0

20

00

2

Non-Medical Aerosols and Solvents

HFC-23 by-product

Fire Protection

Medical Aerosols

Foams

Mobile Air Conditioning

Stationary Air Conditioning

Refrigeration

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2002 BAU- 2015

PFCs

HFCs

HCFCs

CFCs

Halons
DEMAND - 2002 and 2015 Business As Usual

Product (in kt product) GWP (in Mt CO2-eq.) 

World Total 

Halons

CFCs

CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

0

200400600800

100012001400

2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015

Halons

CFCs

CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration Refrigeration

SAC SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

0

500

10001500200025003000

2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015

0

50

100150200250

Developed Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 

050 100 150 200 250 

Developing Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 

050 100 150 200 250 
BANKS - 2002 and 2015 Business As Usual

Product (in kt product) GWP (in Mt CO2-eq.) 

World Total 

Halons Halons

CFCs

CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

0

10002000300040005000600070008000

2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015

Halons Halons

CFCs

CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration Refrigeration

SAC SAC

MAC MAC

Foams

Foams

0

5000

10000150002000025000

2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015

0

500

1000150020002500300035004000

Developed Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 

Developing Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 
EMISSIONS - 2002 and 2015 Business As Usual

Product (in kt product) GWP (in Mt CO2-eq.) 

World Total 

Halons Halons CFCs

CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

HFC-23

HFC-23

0

100200300400500600700800900

1000

2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015

Halons Halons

CFCs

CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

HFC-23

HFC-23

0

500

10001500200025003000

2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015

0

50

100150200250300

Developed Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams HFC-23 HFC-23 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams HFC-23 HFC-23 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 

050 100 150 200 250 300 

Developing Countries Halons CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams HFC-23 HFC-23 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 Halons CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams HFC-23 HFC-23 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2002 BAU-2015 2002 BAU-2015 

050 100 150 200 250 300 
DEMAND - 2015 Business As Usual (BAU) and Mitigation (MIT) Scen

Product (in kt product) GWP (in Mt CO2-eq.) 

World Total 

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

0

200400600800

100012001400

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

0

500

10001500200025003000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

H

0

1020304050

BAU

Developed Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams

0

200400600800

100012001400

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

CFCs HCFCs CFCs HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

0

500

10001500200025003000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

H

0

1020304050

BAU

Developing Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams

0

200400600800

100012001400

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC Foams

Foams

0

500

10001500200025003000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

H

0

1020304050

BAU
BANKS - 2015 Business As Usual (BAU) and Mitigation (MIT) Scen

Product (in kt product) GWP (in Mt CO2-eq.) 

World Total 

Halons Halons

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

0

10002000300040005000600070008000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

Halons Halons

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

0

5000

10000150002000025000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

0

500

1000150020002500

B

Developed Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams

0

10002000300040005000600070008000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs HCFCs

HFCs HFCs

Refrigeration Refrigeration

SAC SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

0

5000

10000150002000025000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

0

500

1000150020002500

B

Developing Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams

0

10002000300040005000600070008000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs HCFCs

HFCs HFCs

Refrigeration Refrigeration

SAC SAC

MAC MAC

Foams Foams

0

5000

10000150002000025000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

0

500

1000150020002500

B
EMISSIONS- 2015 Business As Usual (BAU) and Mitigation (MIT) Sce

Product (in kt product) GWP (in Mt CO2-eq.) 

World Total 

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

HFC-23

HFC-23

0

100200300400500600700800900

1000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC

Foams

Foams

HFC-23

HFC-23

0

500

10001500200025003000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

0

102030405060708090

100110

BA

Developed Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams HFC-23 HFC-23

0

100200300400500600700800900

1000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC Foams

Foams

HFC-23

HFC-23

0

500

10001500200025003000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

0

102030405060708090

100110

BA

Developing Countries CFCs CFCs HCFCs HCFCs HFCs HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams HFC-23 HFC-23

0

100200300400500600700800900

1000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

CFCs CFCs

HCFCs

HCFCs

HFCs

HFCs

Refrigeration

Refrigeration

SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC Foams

Foams

HFC-23

HFC-23

0

500

10001500200025003000

BAU-2015 MIT-2015 BAU-2015 MIT-2015

0

102030405060708090

100110

BA
2015 Emission Reduction Potential as compared to Business As U

Product (in kt product) GWP (in Mt CO2-eq.) 

Emission Reduction HFCs Refrigeration Refrigeration SAC SAC MAC SAC MAC MAC Foams Foams HFC-23

0

50

100150200250

CFCs HCFCs HFCs

Refrigeration HFCs

Refrigeration

SAC SAC

SAC

MAC

MAC MAC Foams

Foams

HFC-23

0

100200300400500600700800

CFCs HCFCs HFCs

Refrigera

SAC

MAC

Foams 

MDI

02468

101214

CFCs 

Legend 

No regional breakdownDevelopingDeveloped

0

2000

2

Non-Medical Aerosols and SolventsHFC-23 by-productFire ProtectionMedical AerosolsFoamsMobile Air ConditioningStationary Air ConditioningRefrigeration