1 

 

May 9, 2014 

MEMORANDUM 

SUBJECT: Request for Revised Ozone HREA Chapter 7 Appendix Tables

FROM: Erika Sasser, Acting Director /s/ 

Health and Environmental Impacts Division (C504-02)

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards 

United States Environmental Protection Agency 

TO: Holly Stallworth 

Designated Federal Officer 

Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee 

EPA Science Advisory Board Staff Office 

On May 1, 2014, members of the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee’s Ozone Review Panel 

requested EPA provide revised appendix tables associated with the recently corrected Chapter 7 

epidemiological-based risk results (see April 28, 2014 technical memorandum “Corrections to Estimates 

of Epidemiology-based Mortality and Morbidity Risks Presented in the Health Risk and Exposure 

Assessment for Ozone, Second External Review Draft). Attached to this memorandum are all of the 

revised appendix tables that support the updated results provided in the above mentioned technical 

memorandum; these revised appendix tables correspond numerically to the Chapter 7 appendix tables 

found in the Health Risk and Exposure Assessment for Ozone, Second External Review Draft (second 

draft ozone HREA). 

One structural change is reflected in the attached Appendix B Tables 7B-3, 7B-4, and 7B-5 that differs

from the original Appendix B tables in the second draft ozone HREA. In addition to point estimates of 

risk related to short-term ozone-attributable morbidity (as was done in the second draft ozone HREA), 

we have also included the 95th percentile confidence intervals associated with these point estimates. 

Because these additional results expanded the number of data rows beyond that used in the former table

structure, we now provide two sub-tables for each former table -- one for each simulation year. For 

example, the former Appendix B Table 7B-3, which contained risk results for the years 2007 and 2009, 

is now presented as Table 7B-3a and 7B-3b, which contains risk results for years 2007 and 2009, 

respectively.
2 

Appendix 7A - Detailed Information on Effect Estimates, Baseline Incidence and Demographic Data Used in t

Based Risk Assessment. 

Endpoint Study 

Urban study 

area 

Study area 

template 

Study information (C-R function) 

Air metric 

Risk assessment 

modeling period

Age 

range Lag 

Additional 

study 

details 

Statistical 

Model 

Effect 

estimate 

(Beta) 

SE (effect 

estimate)a 

Core Risk - short-term exposure-related all-cause mortality Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMax March-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0002411 0.0002919 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0004192 0.00033 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMax April-September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0002807 0.0003429 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0005654 0.0003149 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMax March- September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0001657 0.0003565 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMax April-September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0006432 0.0003117 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0004999 0.0002075 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0002179 0.0001571 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0010114 0.0002074 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.000714 0.0002846 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0003016 0.0003145 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0005401 0.0003428 Core Risk - long-term exposure-related respiratory mortality Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2009 Atlanta, GA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2010 Baltimore, MD CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2011 Boston, MA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2012 Cleveland, OH CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 
3 

Endpoint Study 

Urban study 

area 

Study area 

template 

Study information (C-R function) 

Air metric 

Risk assessment 

modeling period

Age 

range Lag 

Additional 

study 

details 

Statistical 

Model 

Effect 

estimate 

(Beta) 

SE (effect 

estimate)a 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2013 Denver, CO CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2014 Detroit, MI CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2015 Houston, TX CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2016 Los Angeles, CA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2017 New York, NY CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2018 Philadelphia, PA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2019 Sacramento, CA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2020 St. Louis, MO CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA - log-linear 0.0039221 0.0013249 

Core Risk - short-term exposure-related morbidity HA, All Respiratory Katsouyanni et al., 2009 Detroit, MI CBSA D1HourMax June-August 65-99 average of lag 0 and lag 1 penalized splines log-linear 0.00056 0.000352 HA, All Respiratory Katsouyanni et al., 2009 Detroit, MI CBSA D1HourMax June-August 65-99 average of lag 0 and lag 1 natural splines log-linear 0.00054 0.0003571 HA, Asthma Silverman and Ito, 2010 New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 6-18 average of lag 0 and lag 1 - log-linear 0.007907 0.0037862 HA, Asthma Silverman and Ito, 2010 New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 6-18 average of lag 0 and lag 1 PM2.5 log-linear 0.0055553 0.0036926 HA, Chronic Lung Disease 

Lin et al. (a), 2008 New York, NY CBSA D1HourMax April-October 0-17 Lag 2 d - log-linear 0.0007609 0.000163 

HA, All Respiratory Linn et al., 2000 Los Angeles, CA CBSA D24HourMean June-August 30-99 Lag 0d - log-linear 0.0006 0.0007 HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 
4 

Endpoint Study 

Urban study 

area 

Study area 

template 

Study information (C-R function) 

Air metric 

Risk assessment 

modeling period

Age 

range Lag 

Additional 

study 

details 

Statistical 

Model 

Effect 

estimate 

(Beta) 

SE (effect 

estimate)a 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 New York, NY CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

HA, Chronic Lung Disease (less Asthma) 

Medina-Ramon et 

al, 2006 St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMean June-August 65-99 distributed lag 0-1 d - logistic 0.00054 0.000199 

Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory 

Strickland et al., 2010 Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA D8HourMax March-October (8) 5-17 distributed lag 0-7 d - log-linear 0.0047864 0.0007602 

Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory 

Strickland et al., 2010 Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA D8HourMax March-October (8) 5-17 average of lags 0-2 - log-linear 0.002699 0.0006456 

Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory 

Tolbert et al., 2007 Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA D8HourMax March-October (8) 0-99 average of lags 0-2 - log-linear 0.001286 0.0002062 
5 

Endpoint Study 

Urban study 

area 

Study area 

template 

Study information (C-R function) 

Air metric 

Risk assessment 

modeling period

Age 

range Lag 

Additional 

study 

details 

Statistical 

Model 

Effect 

estimate 

(Beta) 

SE (effect 

estimate)a 

Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory 

Tolbert et al., 2007 Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA D8HourMax March-October (8) 0-99 average of lags 0-2 CO log-linear 0.0011408 0.0002283 

Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory 

Tolbert et al., 2007 Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA D8HourMax March-October (8) 0-99 average of lags 0-2 NO2 log-linear 0.0010287 0.0002506 

Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory 

Tolbert et al., 2007 Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA D8HourMax March-October (8) 0-99 average of lags 0-2 PM10 log-linear 0.0008032 0.000267 

Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory 

Tolbert et al., 2007 Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA D8HourMax March-October (8) 0-99 average of lags 0-2 PM10, NO2 log-linear 0.0007749 0.0002672 

Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory 

Darrow et al., 2011 Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA D8HourMax March-October (8) 0-99 Lag 1d - log-linear 0.0006852 0.0001385 

Emergency Room Visits, Asthma Ito et al., 2007 New York, NY New York, NY D8HourMax April-October (7) 0-99 average of lag 0 and lag 1 - log-linear 0.0052134 0.0009087 Emergency Room Visits, Asthma Ito et al., 2007 New York, NY New York, NY D8HourMax April-October (7) 0-99 average of lag 0 and lag 1 PM2.5 log-linear 0.0039757 0.0009789 Emergency Room Visits, Asthma Ito et al., 2007 New York, NY New York, NY D8HourMax April-October (7) 0-99 average of lag 0 and lag 1 NO2 log-linear 0.0032337 0.0009359 Emergency Room Visits, Asthma Ito et al., 2007 New York, NY New York, NY D8HourMax April-October (7) 0-99 average of lag 0 and lag 1 CO log-linear 0.0055437 0.0008939 Emergency Room Visits, Asthma Ito et al., 2007 New York, NY New York, NY D8HourMax April-October (7) 0-99 average of lag 0 and lag 1 SO2 log-linear 0.004115 0.0009226 Asthma Exacerbation, Chest Tightness 

Gent et al., 2003 Boston, MA Boston, MA D1HourMax April-September (6) 0-12 Lag 1d - logistic 0.0007609 0.0020002 

Asthma Exacerbation, Chest Tightness 

Gent et al., 2003 Boston, MA Boston, MA D8HourMax April-September (6) 0-12 Lag 1d - logistic 0.0057036 0.0020217 

Asthma Exacerbation, Chest Tightness 

Gent et al., 2003 Boston, MA Boston, MA D1HourMax April-September (6) 0-12 Lag 1d PM2.5 logistic 0.0077052 0.0022666 

Asthma Exacerbation, Chest Tightness 

Gent et al., 2003 Boston, MA Boston, MA D1HourMax April-September (6) 0-12 Lag 1d PM2.5 logistic 0.0070131 0.0022734 

Asthma Exacerbation, Shortness of Breath

Gent et al., 2003 Boston, MA Boston, MA D1HourMax April-September (6) 0-12 Lag 1d - logistic 0.003977 0.0017947 
6 

Endpoint Study 

Urban study 

area 

Study area 

template 

Study information (C-R function) 

Air metric 

Risk assessment 

modeling period

Age 

range Lag 

Additional 

study 

details 

Statistical 

Model 

Effect 

estimate 

(Beta) 

SE (effect 

estimate)a 

Asthma Exacerbation, Shortness of Breath

Gent et al., 2003 Boston, MA Boston, MA D8HourMax April-September (6) 0-12 Lag 1d - logistic 0.0052473 0.0021808 

Asthma Exacerbation, Wheeze 

Gent et al., 2003 Boston, MA Boston, MA D1HourMax April-September (6) 0-12 Lag 0d PM2.5 logistic 0.0060021 0.0020225 

Sensitivity Analysis - short-term exposure-related all-cause mortality Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Atlanta, GA Epi study based D8HourMax March-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0002411 0.0002919

c

Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Baltimore, MD Epi study based D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0004192 0.00033 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Boston, MA Epi study based D8HourMax April-September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0002807 0.0003429 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Cleveland, OH Epi study based D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0005654 0.0003149 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Denver, CO Epi study based D8HourMax March- September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0001657 0.0003565 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Detroit, MI Epi study based D8HourMax April-September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0006432 0.0003117 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Houston, TX Epi study based D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0004999 0.0002075 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Los Angeles, CA Epi study based D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0002179 0.0001571 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 New York, NY Epi study based D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0010114 0.0002074 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Philadelphia, PA Epi study based D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.000714 0.0002846 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Sacramento, CA Epi study based D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0003016 0.0003145 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 St. Louis, MO Epi study based D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d - log-linear 0.0005401 0.0003428 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMax March-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.0002603 0.0002359 

c

Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.0009399 0.0002829 
7 

Endpoint Study 

Urban study 

area 

Study area 

template 

Study information (C-R function) 

Air metric 

Risk assessment 

modeling period

Age 

range Lag 

Additional 

study 

details 

Statistical 

Model 

Effect 

estimate 

(Beta) 

SE (effect 

estimate)a 

Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMax April-September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.0008827 0.0003004 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.0006789 0.0002637 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMax March- September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.0000293 0.0003502 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMax April-September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.0007159 0.0002622 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.000423 0.0001825 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.0001988 0.000151 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.0011223 0.0001808 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.001026 0.0002395 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.000107 0.000323 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d Regional Bayes- based log-linear 0.0006754 0.00028 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMax March-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.0001183 0.0005456

c

Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.0004727 0.000531 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMax April-September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.0001591 0.0005752 
8 

Endpoint Study 

Urban study 

area 

Study area 

template 

Study information (C-R function) 

Air metric 

Risk assessment 

modeling period

Age 

range Lag 

Additional 

study 

details 

Statistical 

Model 

Effect 

estimate 

(Beta) 

SE (effect 

estimate)a 

Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.0004626 0.0004335 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMax March- September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear - 0.0000383 0.0005263 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMax April-September 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.000286 0.0004066 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.000631 0.0003623 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.0000524 0.0003473 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 New York, NY CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.0004407 0.0003904 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.0005445 0.0005186 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMax January- December 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.0002805 0.0005434 Mortality, All Cause Smith et al., 2009 St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMax April-October 0-99 distributed lag 0-6 d PM10 log-linear 0.0003602 0.0005813 Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Atlanta, GA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0002954 0.0002886

c

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Baltimore, MD CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.000515 0.000314 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Boston, MA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0006816 0.0003284 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Cleveland, OH CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0005962 0.0003546 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Denver, CO CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0003518 0.0004088 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Detroit, MI CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0010459 0.0003441 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Houston, TX CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0001629 0.0002628 
9 

Endpoint Study 

Urban study 

area 

Study area 

template 

Study information (C-R function) 

Air metric 

Risk assessment 

modeling period

Age 

range Lag 

Additional 

study 

details 

Statistical 

Model 

Effect 

estimate 

(Beta) 

SE (effect 

estimate)a 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Los Angeles, CA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0002737 0.0002134 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

New York, NY CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0010925 0.0002357 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Philadelphia, PA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0006246 0.0003146 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

Sacramento, CA CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0005691 0.0003885 

Mortality, All Cause 

Zanobetti and Schwartz (b), 2008 

St. Louis, MO CBSA D8HourMean June-August 0-99 distributed lag 0-3 d - log-linear 0.0005444 0.0003334 

Sensitivity Analysis - long-term exposure-related respiratory mortality Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2009 Atlanta, GA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear 0.0113329 0.0031929

c

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2010 Baltimore, MD CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear -0.001005 0.0038531 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2011 Boston, MA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear -0.001005 0.0038531 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2012 Cleveland, OH CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear 0 0.0046043 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2013 Denver, CO CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear 0.0058269 0.0031178 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2014 Detroit, MI CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear 0 0.0046043 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2015 Houston, TX CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear 0.0113329 0.0031929 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2016 Los Angeles, CA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear 0.000995 0.0027674 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2017 New York, NY CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear -0.001005 0.0038531 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2018 Philadelphia, PA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear -0.001005 0.0038531 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2019 Sacramento, CA CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear 0.0058269 0.0031178 
10 

Endpoint Study 

Urban study 

area 

Study area 

template 

Study information (C-R function) 

Air metric 

Risk assessment 

modeling period

Age 

range Lag 

Additional 

study 

details 

Statistical 

Model 

Effect 

estimate 

(Beta) 

SE (effect 

estimate)a 

Mortality, Respiratory 

Jerrett et al., 2020 St. Louis, MO CBSA Seasonal-avg D1hrMax April-September 30-99 NA Regional log-linear 0 0.0046043 

a-all Beta distributions assumed to be normal b-Gent et al., 2003 also use the following prevalence rates: 0.028 (wheeze), 0.015 (shortness of breath), 0.012 (chest tightness) (from study) 
11 

Appendix 7B – Detailed Summary of Core Risk Estimates 

Table 7B-1. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mortality (2007) (incidence, percent of baseline 

mortality, incidence per 100,000) (Smith et al., 2009) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

250 220 210 200 190 31 10 18 28

(-350 - 840) (-310 - 740) (-300 - 710) (-280 - 680) (-270 - 650) (-42 - 100) (-13 - 32) (-24 - 60) (-39 - 95)

240 230 220 210 210 12 7 14 23

(-130 - 600) (-130 - 570) (-120 - 560) (-120 - 540) (-110 - 520) (-6 - 30) (-4 - 17) (-8 - 35) (-13 - 59)

210 200 200 190 180 3 4 11 18

(-290 - 680) (-290 - 670) (-280 - 660) (-270 - 640) (-260 - 620) (-5 - 11) (-6 - 14) (-16 - 39) (-25 - 62)

270 270 260 250 230 0 8 20 40

(-25 - 550) (-25 - 550) (-24 - 540) (-23 - 510) (-21 - 470) (0 - -1) (-1 - 18) (-2 - 41) (-4 - 83)

59 58 57 55 53 1 1 3 5

(-190 - 300) (-190 - 300) (-190 - 290) (-180 - 280) (-170 - 270) (-2 - 3) (-4 - 7) (-10 - 15) (-17 - 27)

520 520 500 480 460 2 18 33 54

(26 - 990) (26 - 990) (25 - 960) (25 - 930) (24 - 890) (0 - 4) (1 - 35) (2 - 64) (3 - 110)

540 580 580 570 560 -39 4 9 20

(100 - 970) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (-7 - -71) (1 - 8) (2 - 17) (4 - 37)

640 750 730 700 660 -110 26 52 96

(-270 - 1500) (-310 - 1800) (-300 - 1700) (-290 - 1700) (-270 - 1600) (46 - -270) (-11 - 62) (-22 - 130) (-40 - 230)

3400 3200 3100 2500 170 150 740

(2000 - 4700) (1900 - 4500) (1900 - 4300) (1500 - 3500) (100 - 240) (92 - 220) (440 - 1000)

960 920 890 860 830 47 26 56 86

(210 - 1700) (200 - 1600) (200 - 1600) (190 - 1500) (180 - 1500) (10 - 84) (6 - 46) (12 - 100) (19 - 150)

170 160 160 160 150 5 3 6 10

(-180 - 500) (-170 - 480) (-170 - 470) (-160 - 470) (-160 - 450) (-5 - 15) (-3 - 9) (-6 - 17) (-11 - 31)

370 350 330 320 300 22 15 31 49

(-92 - 810) (-86 - 770) (-83 - 740) (-79 - 700) (-74 - 660) (-6 - 50) (-4 - 33) (-8 - 70) (-12 - 110)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 12 4 8 13

Baltimore, MD 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 5 3 6 10

Boston, MA 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 2 2 5 9

Cleveland, OH 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 -0.1 3 7 14

Denver, CO 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1 2 5 9

Detroit, MI 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 0.3 3 6 10

Houston, TX 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 -7 1 2 3

Los Angeles, CA 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 -17 3 7 13

New York, NY 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.2 NA 5 5 22 NA

Philadelphia, PA 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 5 3 6 9

Sacramento, CA 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 3 2 3 6

St. Louis, MO 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 6 4 9 14

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 0.61 0.19 0.35 0.56

Baltimore, MD 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.7 0.44 0.25 0.52 0.87

Boston, MA 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.1 0.074 0.092 0.26 0.41

Cleveland, OH 13 13 12 12 11 -0.011 0.40 0.95 1.9

Denver, CO 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 0.023 0.054 0.12 0.22

Detroit, MI 12 12 11 11 11 0.049 0.41 0.75 1.2

Houston, TX 9.8 10 10 10 10 -0.70 0.075 0.17 0.36

Los Angeles, CA 5.1 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.2 -0.88 0.20 0.41 0.76

New York, NY 18 17 17 14 NA 0.93 0.83 4.0 NA

Philadelphia, PA 16 16 15 15 14 0.81 0.44 0.96 1.5

Sacramento, CA 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 0.23 0.14 0.27 0.49

St. Louis, MO 13 13 12 11 11 0.81 0.53 1.1 1.7

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Study Area

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

Air Quality Scenario

NA NA

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Philadelphia, PA

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Cleveland, OH

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX
12 

Table 7B-2. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mortality (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline 

mortality, incidence per 100,000) (Smith et al., 2009) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. For Detroit, 2009 base air quality already just meets existing standard. 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

200 200 190 190 180 4 7 13 19

(-280 - 680) (-280 - 670) (-270 - 650) (-260 - 620) (-250 - 610) (-5 - 13) (-10 - 24) (-18 - 45) (-26 - 64)

210 210 200 200 190 3 4 9 14

(-120 - 530) (-110 - 520) (-110 - 510) (-110 - 500) (-110 - 480) (-2 - 7) (-2 - 10) (-5 - 23) (-8 - 37)

180 180 180 180 180 -1 -1 3 8

(-260 - 610) (-260 - 610) (-260 - 620) (-260 - 600) (-250 - 590) (2 - -4) (1 - -2) (-4 - 10) (-11 - 27)

250 250 240 230 220 -3 7 18 31

(-23 - 510) (-23 - 510) (-22 - 500) (-21 - 480) (-20 - 450) (0 - -6) (-1 - 15) (-2 - 37) (-3 - 64)

56 56 56 55 51 0 0 1 5

(-180 - 290) (-180 - 290) (-180 - 290) (-180 - 280) (-170 - 260) (1 - -1) (-1 - 1) (-4 - 7) (-15 - 25)

460 460 470 460 440 -17 -5 12

(23 - 880) (23 - 880) (24 - 910) (23 - 890) (23 - 850) (-1 - -33) (0 - -10) (1 - 23)

550 600 600 590 580 -47 -1 3 12

(100 - 990) (110 - 1100) (110 - 1100) (110 - 1100) (110 - 1000) (-9 - -85) (0 - -1) (1 - 6) (2 - 22)

670 770 750 720 670 -99 25 53 98

(-280 - 1600) (-320 - 1800) (-310 - 1800) (-300 - 1700) (-280 - 1600) (41 - -240) (-10 - 60) (-22 - 130) (-41 - 240)

2900 3000 2900 2500 -89 96 500

(1800 - 4100) (1800 - 4200) (1800 - 4100) (1500 - 3500) (-53 - -120) (57 - 130) (300 - 700)

820 820 810 790 770 -4 14 33 51

(180 - 1400) (180 - 1400) (180 - 1400) (170 - 1400) (170 - 1400) (-1 - -8) (3 - 25) (7 - 58) (11 - 90)

170 160 160 160 150 5 3 5 9

(-180 - 500) (-170 - 490) (-170 - 480) (-170 - 470) (-160 - 460) (-5 - 14) (-3 - 8) (-6 - 17) (-10 - 28)

310 310 300 290 280 1 7 17 30

(-77 - 690) (-77 - 690) (-75 - 670) (-73 - 650) (-69 - 620) (0 - 3) (-2 - 15) (-4 - 37) (-7 - 67)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 2 3 7 9

Baltimore, MD 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1 2 4 7

Boston, MA 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 -1 -0.3 2 4

Cleveland, OH 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 -1 3 7 12

Denver, CO 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 -0.4 0.3 2 8

Detroit, MI 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 NA -4 -1 3

Houston, TX 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 -8 -0.1 0.5 2

Los Angeles, CA 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 -15 3 7 13

New York, NY 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.3 NA -3 3 16 NA

Philadelphia, PA 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 -1 2 4 6

Sacramento, CA 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 3 2 3 6

St. Louis, MO 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 0.4 2 5 9

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 0.071 0.14 0.26 0.37

Baltimore, MD 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.2 0.11 0.14 0.33 0.54

Boston, MA 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 -0.028 -0.013 0.064 0.18

Cleveland, OH 12 12 12 11 11 -0.14 0.35 0.86 1.5

Denver, CO 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 -0.0098 0.0081 0.054 0.19

Detroit, MI 11 11 11 11 10 NA -0.39 -0.11 0.28

Houston, TX 9.4 10 10 10 10 -0.80 -0.010 0.054 0.21

Los Angeles, CA 5.3 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.3 -0.77 0.19 0.42 0.77

New York, NY 16 16 16 14 NA -0.47 0.51 2.7 NA

Philadelphia, PA 14 14 14 13 13 -0.070 0.24 0.55 0.85

Sacramento, CA 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.2 0.21 0.13 0.26 0.44

St. Louis, MO 11 11 11 10 10 0.041 0.24 0.60 1.1

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Philadelphia, PA

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Cleveland, OH

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX

Study Area

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

NA

NA NA

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Air Quality Scenario
13 

Figure 7B-1 Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mortality (2007) (heat map tables – absolute 

ozone-attributable incidence) (Smith et al., 2009) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

Recent conditions

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 1 2 4 10 13 17 24 34 47 29 30 20 19 252

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 1 4 10 10 25 20 28 30 29 18 33 20 13 240

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 5 10 27 24 36 22 17 18 14 10 5 17 205

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 2 5 14 28 30 45 34 33 25 23 15 6 7 268

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 6 9 12 12 6 3 1 59

Detroit, MI 0 0 1 0 5 23 31 48 76 96 50 30 41 20 29 68 518

Houston, TX 0 1 6 20 41 58 74 71 61 49 51 28 25 27 26 3 542

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 3 14 33 38 69 58 96 84 81 79 35 20 15 17 643

New York, NY 0 0 0 47 93 169 339 549 326 446 306 228 222 266 205 197 3,391

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 1 5 15 39 63 70 118 97 112 117 69 93 86 76 961

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 2 7 10 17 25 19 21 20 19 10 7 5 3 165

St. Louis, MO 0 0 1 1 2 9 17 34 49 33 58 48 32 25 23 36 369

Current Standard (75)

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 2 4 15 20 34 43 52 31 12 5 3 0 222

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 1 6 11 22 43 37 36 38 23 6 5 2 228

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 2 11 26 29 33 33 20 12 17 5 7 6 202

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 1 3 9 25 41 55 50 27 25 19 8 6 0 268

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 9 12 15 10 3 1 0 58

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 1 5 33 56 97 116 59 41 44 16 34 14 516

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 14 42 107 124 126 81 42 42 2 0 0 0 580

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 204 268 233 27 8 3 0 0 753

New York, NY 0 0 0 0 24 113 341 625 851 545 418 268 45 0 0 0 3,230

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 2 0 25 46 115 157 175 155 122 75 31 7 7 916

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 1 8 23 43 29 29 17 9 2 1 0 0 161

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 1 2 6 15 52 53 61 60 38 24 23 10 3 348

Alternative Standard 70

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 2 7 16 23 43 53 43 17 6 3 0 0 212

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 1 6 7 28 49 44 43 26 11 5 2 0 222

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 2 11 27 35 31 31 21 16 8 7 4 4 198

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 1 2 10 26 45 67 47 24 21 14 4 0 0 260

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 11 17 15 4 2 0 0 57

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 0 5 33 65 119 113 50 55 23 24 13 0 499

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 8 41 108 141 139 81 45 11 0 0 0 0 576

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 240 362 98 5 5 0 0 0 727

New York, NY 0 0 0 0 15 156 392 749 930 597 224 20 0 0 0 0 3,083

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 2 23 45 133 202 167 160 89 57 6 7 0 891

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 7 24 47 35 30 9 6 0 1 0 0 158

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 1 2 7 20 61 61 68 47 34 24 9 0 0 333

Alternative Standard 65

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 1 8 20 24 54 55 31 8 4 0 0 0 204

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 1 5 11 34 51 44 43 19 6 2 0 0 215

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 1 11 31 36 37 31 21 12 6 3 2 0 191

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 2 11 34 57 65 42 22 11 4 0 0 0 249

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 14 21 10 2 0 0 0 55

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 0 3 33 74 144 96 56 37 29 12 0 0 484

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 4 36 119 155 149 69 38 0 0 0 0 0 571

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 312 288 29 7 3 0 0 0 701

New York, NY 0 0 0 0 43 694 710 1,057 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,519

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 2 23 45 143 228 197 148 63 6 6 0 0 862

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 5 28 50 41 22 7 2 1 0 0 0 155

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 2 7 29 62 69 75 38 28 6 0 0 0 317

Alternative Standard 60

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 2 10 21 41 53 48 16 2 0 0 0 0 194

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 1 5 12 45 56 56 25 7 0 0 0 0 206

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 1 12 39 29 53 26 12 7 3 2 0 0 184

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 3 15 51 66 70 15 10 0 0 0 0 0 229

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 21 18 3 0 0 0 0 53

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 0 2 39 106 139 101 47 31 0 0 0 0 463

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 0 28 136 192 152 48 4 0 0 0 0 0 560

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 225 264 151 11 0 0 0 0 0 658

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 2 21 61 161 263 218 97 5 6 0 0 0 834

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 4 33 59 38 13 4 1 0 0 0 0 151

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 2 8 45 73 92 46 29 4 0 0 0 0 300

NA
14 

Figure 7B-2. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mortality (2007) (heat map tables – change in 

absolute ozone-attributable incidence) (Smith et al., 2009) Note: negative values are risk increases, 

positive values are risk reductions 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

Decrease recent conditions to 75

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 5 5 4 4 31 0 31

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 2 4 3 2 12 -6 18

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 3 -4 6

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 -8 7

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1

Detroit, MI 0 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 1 1 2 3 2 3 9 2 -19 22

Houston, TX 0 -2 -6 -11 -14 -15 -10 -6 0 3 5 3 4 4 5 1 -39 -65 26

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 -7 -18 -28 -22 -26 -14 -14 -5 1 7 5 4 3 4 -111 -134 25

New York, NY 0 0 0 -18 -30 -31 -43 -25 7 44 39 38 38 56 48 49 172 -169 341

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -9 -9 -5 0 3 10 12 9 14 14 15 47 -36 82

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 5 -7 13

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 4 4 3 3 3 5 22 -3 27

Decrease 75 to 70

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 10 0 10

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 7 0 6

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 3

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 1 0 0 8 0 10

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 3 2 3 1 3 1 18 0 19

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 -3 8

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 10 1 0 0 0 0 26 0 25

New York, NY 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 14 31 37 41 29 6 0 0 0 154 -13 167

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 5 6 6 4 2 0 1 26 -2 27

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 4

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 15 0 16

Decrease 75 to 65

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 5 3 1 1 0 0 18 0 18

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 4 2 1 1 0 14 0 15

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 11 0 12

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 0 20 -1 20

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 3

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 3 7 5 4 5 2 5 2 33 -2 35

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 0 4 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 9 -8 16

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 20 21 2 1 0 0 0 52 0 52

New York, NY 0 0 0 0 -1 2 27 98 172 156 156 103 22 0 0 0 735 -7 742

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 5 11 13 14 9 4 1 1 56 -4 60

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 6 -1 6

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 6 5 3 3 2 0 31 0 31

Decrease 75 to 60

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 7 5 2 1 1 0 28 0 29

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 5 6 4 1 1 0 23 0 25

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 2 3 1 2 1 18 0 19

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 9 6 6 5 2 2 0 40 -2 41

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 5 0 6

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 6 11 8 7 8 4 7 3 54 -2 57

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 1 7 8 6 7 1 0 0 0 20 -11 31

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 24 35 29 4 1 1 0 0 96 0 95

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 8 17 19 20 13 6 1 2 86 -4 89

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 10 -2 11

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 9 10 7 5 5 2 1 49 0 49

Change in risk

Change in risk

Change in risk

Change in risk

NA
15 

Figure 7B-3. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mortality (2009) (heat map tables – absolute 

ozone-attributable incidence) (Smith et al., 2009) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

Recent conditions

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 1 3 6 16 13 20 36 32 26 23 18 8 1 0 204

Baltimore, MD 0 0 1 1 6 12 20 20 20 29 40 33 15 7 5 0 210

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 6 19 21 32 29 31 25 6 2 3 5 2 182

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 4 8 17 20 31 50 33 35 24 7 15 2 0 246

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 7 11 13 13 6 1 1 0 56

Detroit, MI 0 0 1 7 5 21 36 53 89 116 30 40 36 0 17 5 456

Houston, TX 0 1 7 18 34 68 80 85 60 55 53 41 21 14 6 7 549

Los Angeles, CA 0 1 4 12 23 40 68 51 63 109 98 75 67 41 12 10 672

New York, NY 0 0 5 93 165 248 322 373 466 367 370 240 153 116 25 0 2,944

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 4 10 22 56 88 67 116 110 114 124 68 30 7 0 817

Sacramento, CA 0 0 2 3 7 12 17 15 22 21 19 13 10 15 9 3 166

St. Louis, MO 0 0 1 5 4 15 21 47 38 55 60 39 17 9 0 0 311

Current Standard (75)

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 1 2 7 13 15 28 41 37 24 25 8 1 0 0 201

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 2 7 21 36 33 47 33 23 6 0 0 0 207

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 7 14 26 33 29 31 27 4 2 3 5 2 183

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 3 16 28 42 46 50 35 17 7 4 0 0 249

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 12 15 13 4 1 0 0 56

Detroit, MI 0 0 1 7 5 21 36 53 89 116 30 40 36 0 17 5 456

Houston, TX 0 0 0 5 24 43 105 107 96 77 72 31 23 6 3 3 595

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 168 196 297 91 5 0 0 0 770

New York, NY 0 0 0 7 41 246 489 407 724 538 314 201 64 0 0 0 3,031

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 2 12 38 118 93 162 130 151 67 50 0 0 0 822

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 1 10 28 30 32 24 18 14 3 0 0 0 162

St. Louis, MO 0 0 1 5 5 14 22 44 42 63 53 43 11 7 0 0 310

Alternative Standard 70

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 1 8 14 18 38 48 27 24 16 1 0 0 0 194

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 2 7 20 40 42 46 37 10 0 0 0 0 203

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 1 17 23 37 34 33 25 3 0 5 5 0 184

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 1 16 35 47 53 49 31 5 5 0 0 0 242

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 7 11 20 11 2 1 0 0 56

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 9 10 33 58 82 137 66 50 7 15 4 0 472

Houston, TX 0 0 0 2 21 41 104 124 99 97 70 22 10 3 3 0 596

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 24 198 301 185 36 0 0 0 0 745

New York, NY 0 0 0 0 42 203 548 609 847 434 256 0 0 0 0 0 2,940

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 13 33 109 127 152 180 127 62 5 0 0 0 808

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 1 7 34 35 35 21 22 6 0 0 0 0 159

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 3 8 12 28 51 58 58 52 25 8 0 0 0 304

Alternative Standard 65

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 1 7 10 27 44 53 21 23 1 0 0 0 0 187

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 1 6 22 44 56 38 29 2 0 0 0 0 198

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 1 17 27 37 40 33 14 1 5 5 0 0 181

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 1 15 50 51 57 43 10 5 0 0 0 0 231

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 16 21 5 1 0 0 0 55

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 8 8 31 68 115 135 52 26 14 4 0 0 461

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 10 38 118 142 115 109 41 12 5 3 0 0 592

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 55 241 319 96 5 0 0 0 0 717

New York, NY 0 0 0 0 43 540 827 1,080 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,547

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 11 31 102 171 193 172 85 25 0 0 0 0 791

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 6 36 43 34 19 18 1 0 0 0 0 156

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 1 10 10 33 61 70 52 46 12 0 0 0 0 294

Alternative Standard 60

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 7 12 35 47 47 25 8 0 0 0 0 0 182

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 1 5 27 54 55 37 14 0 0 0 0 0 193

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 1 19 34 37 45 26 5 4 5 0 0 0 176

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 1 17 68 50 58 21 4 0 0 0 0 0 219

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 29 5 0 0 0 0 0 51

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 4 13 31 95 129 123 36 10 3 0 0 0 444

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 4 32 117 177 155 79 17 2 0 0 0 0 583

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 199 216 242 11 0 0 0 0 0 673

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 5 23 109 214 220 142 61 0 0 0 0 0 773

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 4 38 52 31 25 2 0 0 0 0 0 153

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 10 11 47 76 64 58 16 0 0 0 0 0 281

NA
16 

Figure 7B-4. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Mortality (2009) (heat map tables – change in 

absolute ozone-attributable incidence) (Smith et al., 2009) Note: negative values are risk increases, positive 

values are risk reductions 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

 

Decrease recent conditinos to 75

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 -1 6

Baltimore, MD 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 2 3 3 2 1 1 0 3 -9 13

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 -3 -10 7

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Houston, TX 0 -1 -4 -7 -9 -12 -10 -8 -3 -1 1 2 1 1 1 1 -47 -55 7

Los Angeles, CA 0 -2 -9 -15 -19 -23 -26 -13 -10 -8 1 5 7 7 2 3 -99 -126 26

New York, NY 0 0 -3 -34 -47 -42 -27 -18 -4 10 23 20 16 13 3 0 -89 -198 109

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -9 -7 -4 1 3 5 9 5 3 1 0 -4 -36 32

Sacramento, CA 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 1 5 -7 15

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2

Decrease 75 to 70

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 7 0 9

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 4

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 2

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 7 0 7

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Detroit, MI 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 1 2 0 1 0 -17 -22 5

Houston, TX 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -9 6

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 12 4 0 0 0 0 25 0 25

New York, NY 0 0 0 -1 -4 -16 -9 9 26 36 26 21 7 0 0 0 96 -44 139

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 3 4 6 3 3 0 0 0 14 -6 21

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 4

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 7 -2 9

Decrease 75 to 65

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 3 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 13 -2 15

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 9 -1 11

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 3 -4 6

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 3 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 18 -1 21

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

Detroit, MI 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -5 -4 -3 -2 3 1 4 4 0 2 1 -5 -21 16

Houston, TX 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 -1 2 3 5 3 3 1 1 0 3 -15 19

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 14 25 8 0 0 0 0 53 0 53

New York, NY 0 0 0 -1 -5 -19 18 60 122 138 93 72 24 0 0 0 500 -48 550

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 8 8 13 7 6 0 0 0 33 -11 44

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 -2 7

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 5 5 5 1 1 0 0 17 -4 22

Decrease 75 to 60

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 4 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 19 -2 21

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 14 -2 16

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0 1 0 8 -4 11

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 5 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 31 -1 33

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 5

Detroit, MI 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -6 -4 -2 1 8 3 6 6 0 4 1 12 -22 32

Houston, TX 0 0 0 -2 -6 -6 -6 0 4 7 9 5 5 1 1 1 12 -22 35

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 26 37 13 1 0 0 0 98 0 97

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 12 12 19 10 8 0 0 0 51 -14 65

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 9 -2 11

St. Louis, MO 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 3 4 8 8 7 2 1 0 0 30 -6 34

Change in risk

Change in risk

Change in risk

Change in risk

NA
17 

Table 7B-3a. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Morbidity – Hospital Admissions (2007) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

HA (respiratory); Detroit (Katsouyanni et al., 2009)

200 190 180 170 160 14 10 18 29

(56 - 430) (52 - 410) (49 - 380) (47 - 370) (44 - 340) (3.8 - 31) (2.8 - 23) (5.1 - 41) (8.1 - 65)

190 180 170 160 150 13 9.8 18 28

(46 - 430) (43 - 400) (41 - 380) (39 - 360) (36 - 340) (3.2 - 31) (2.3 - 22) (4.2 - 40) (6.8 - 65)

HA (respiratory); NYC (Silverman and Ito, 2010; Lin et al., 2008)

160 140 140 110 14 7.9 34

(120 - 220) (110 - 200) (100 - 190) (84 - 160) (10 - 19) (5.9 - 11) (26 - 48)

520 490 460 380 58 33 140

(260 - 860) (240 - 810) (230 - 780) (180 - 660) (27 - 110) (15 - 63) (64 - 250)

390 360 340 280 42 23 98

(100 - 760) (93 - 710) (87 - 680) (70 - 570) (10 - 91) (5.5 - 53) (24 - 210)

HA (respiratory); LA (Linn et al., 2000)

370 480 460 450 440 -110 11 23 36

(-480 - 1,200) (-630 - 1,500) (-610 - 1,500) (-600 - 1,500) (-580 - 1,400) (140 - -370) (-15 - 37) (-29 - 74) (-47 - 120)

HA (COPD less asthma); all 12 study areas (Medina-Ramon, et al., 2006)

64 55 52 50 47 10 3 5 8

(37 - 110) (32 - 93) (30 - 89) (29 - 85) (27 - 80) (6 - 17) (2 - 5) (3 - 9) (5 - 14)

43 40 38 37 35 3 1 3 5

(25 - 73) (23 - 68) (22 - 66) (21 - 63) (20 - 60) (2 - 6) (1 - 3) (2 - 5) (3 - 8)

59 58 57 54 52 2 1 3 6

(34 - 100) (33 - 99) (33 - 97) (31 - 93) (30 - 90) (1 - 3) (1 - 2) (2 - 6) (3 - 9)

38 37 36 34 31 1 1 3 6

(22 - 65) (22 - 64) (21 - 62) (20 - 59) (18 - 53) (0 - 1) (1 - 2) (2 - 6) (4 - 11)

18 18 18 17 16 0 1 1 2

(11 - 32) (10 - 31) (10 - 30) (10 - 29) (9 - 27) (0 - 1) (0 - 1) (1 - 2) (1 - 4)

72 72 69 67 64 0 2 4 7

(41 - 120) (41 - 120) (40 - 120) (39 - 110) (37 - 110) (0 - 1) (1 - 4) (3 - 8) (4 - 13)

55 57 56 55 54 -2 1 2 3

(32 - 94) (33 - 97) (33 - 96) (32 - 94) (31 - 92) (-1 - -4) (0 - 1) (1 - 3) (2 - 6)

110 110 110 100 96 2 5 10 15

(65 - 190) (64 - 190) (61 - 180) (58 - 170) (55 - 160) (1 - 3) (3 - 9) (6 - 17) (9 - 26)

220 200 190 150 21 13 57

(130 - 380) (120 - 350) (110 - 330) (85 - 250) (12 - 37) (7 - 22) (33 - 98)

110 97 93 90 86 9 3 7 11

(61 - 180) (56 - 160) (54 - 160) (52 - 150) (50 - 150) (5 - 15) (2 - 6) (4 - 12) (6 - 18)

17 15 14 14 13 2 1 1 2

(10 - 29) (9 - 25) (8 - 25) (8 - 24) (8 - 23) (1 - 3) (0 - 1) (1 - 2) (1 - 3)

46 43 41 38 36 4 2 4 7

(27 - 79) (25 - 73) (24 - 69) (22 - 66) (21 - 62) (2 - 6) (1 - 4) (3 - 8) (4 - 12)

NA NA

NA NA

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Cleveland, OH

Denver, CO

HA Chronic Lung Disease (Lin)

HA Asthma (Silverman)

HA Asthma, PM2.5 (Silverman)

1hr max penalized splines

1hr max, penalized splines

1hr max, natural splines

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor

2007 Simulation Year
18 

Table 7B-3b. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Morbidity – Hospital Admissions (2009) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. For Detroit, 2009 base air quality already just meets existing standard. 

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

HA (respiratory); Detroit (Katsouyanni et al., 2009)

170 170 170 160 150 2.8 10 20

(48 - 380) (48 - 380) (47 - 370) (45 - 350) (42 - 330) (0.78 - 6.2) (2.8 - 23) (5.5 - 44)

160 160 160 160 150 2.7 9.8 19

(40 - 370) (40 - 370) (39 - 370) (38 - 350) (35 - 330) (0.65 - 6.2) (2.3 - 22) (4.5 - 43)

HA (respiratory); NYC (Silverman and Ito, 2010; Lin et al., 2008)

140 140 130 110 110 0.053 5.9 25 25

(100 - 190) (100 - 190) (100 - 190) (86 - 160) (86 - 160) (0.046 - 0.056) (4.5 - 8.4) (19 - 35) (19 - 35)

480 470 450 390 390 9.4 28 110 110

(240 - 800) (230 - 790) (220 - 770) (190 - 670) (190 - 670) (4.4 - 17) (13 - 54) (51 - 200) (51 - 200)

350 350 330 280 280 6.8 20 79 79

(92 - 700) (90 - 700) (86 - 670) (72 - 580) (72 - 580) (1.7 - 14) (4.8 - 45) (19 - 170) (19 - 170)

HA (respiratory); LA (Linn et al., 2000)

390 500 490 480 460 -120 11 23 37

(-510 - 1,200) (-660 - 1,600) (-650 - 1,600) (-630 - 1,500) (-610 - 1,500) (150 - -390) (-14 - 35) (-30 - 76) (-48 - 120)

HA (COPD less asthma); all 12 study areas (Medina-Ramon, et al., 2006)

53 52 50 48 46 2 3 4 6

(31 - 91) (30 - 89) (29 - 85) (28 - 82) (27 - 79) (1 - 3) (1 - 4) (3 - 8) (4 - 11)

38 37 36 35 34 1 1 2 3

(22 - 65) (21 - 62) (21 - 61) (20 - 59) (19 - 57) (1 - 3) (0 - 1) (1 - 3) (2 - 5)

53 53 53 52 51 0 0 1 2

(30 - 90) (31 - 91) (31 - 91) (30 - 89) (30 - 87) (0 - -1) (0 - 0) (0 - 1) (1 - 4)

36 36 35 33 31 0 1 3 5

(21 - 61) (21 - 61) (20 - 59) (19 - 56) (18 - 53) (0 - 0) (1 - 2) (2 - 5) (3 - 9)

18 18 18 17 16 0 0 1 2

(10 - 30) (10 - 30) (10 - 30) (10 - 29) (9 - 27) (0 - 0) (0 - 0) (0 - 1) (1 - 4)

64 64 66 65 63 -3 -1 1

(37 - 110) (37 - 110) (38 - 110) (38 - 110) (36 - 110) (-2 - -4) (-1 - -2) (1 - 2)

60 63 63 62 60 -3 0 1 3

(35 - 100) (37 - 110) (36 - 110) (36 - 110) (35 - 100) (-2 - -5) (0 - 1) (1 - 2) (2 - 6)

120 120 110 110 100 3 5 10 16

(69 - 200) (68 - 200) (65 - 190) (62 - 180) (59 - 170) (2 - 5) (3 - 8) (6 - 17) (9 - 27)

190 190 190 160 -1 8 40

(110 - 330) (110 - 330) (110 - 320) (90 - 270) (0 - -1) (5 - 14) (23 - 69)

90 88 87 84 82 1 2 4 6

(52 - 150) (51 - 150) (50 - 150) (49 - 140) (48 - 140) (1 - 2) (1 - 3) (2 - 7) (4 - 11)

18 16 15 15 14 2 1 1 2

(10 - 31) (9 - 27) (9 - 26) (9 - 25) (8 - 24) (1 - 4) (0 - 1) (1 - 2) (1 - 3)

41 41 39 38 36 0 2 3 5

(24 - 70) (24 - 69) (23 - 67) (22 - 64) (21 - 61) (0 - 1) (1 - 3) (2 - 5) (3 - 9)

NA NA

NA

1hr max penalized splines

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Cleveland, OH

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

NA

HA Chronic Lung Disease (Lin)

HA Asthma (Silverman)

HA Asthma, PM2.5 (Silverman)

1hr max, penalized splines

1hr max, natural splines

2009 Simulation Year

Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 
19 

Table 7B-4a. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Morbidity – Emergency Room Visits (2007) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

ER Visits (repiratory); Atlanta (Strickland et al., 2007)

7,400 6,600 6,300 6,000 5,700 1,100 350 650 1,000

(5,300 - 9,400) (4,700 - 8,300) (4,500 - 8,000) (4,300 - 7,700) (4,100 - 7,300) (790 - 1,500) (240 - 460) (450 - 850) (710 - 1,300)

4,400 3,900 3,700 3,600 3,400 650 200 370 580

(2,400 - 6,300) (2,100 - 5,500) (2,000 - 5,300) (1,900 - 5,100) (1,800 - 4,800) (350 - 950) (110 - 290) (200 - 540) (310 - 850)

ER-visits (respiratory); Atlanta (Tolbert et al., 2007, Darrow et al., 2011)

8,000 7,000 6,700 6,500 6,200 1,000 310 580 920

(5,500 - 10,000) (4,900 - 9,200) (4,700 - 8,800) (4,500 - 8,500) (4,300 - 8,000) (680 - 1,300) (220 - 410) (400 - 760) (630 - 1,200)

7,100 6,300 6,000 5,800 5,500 880 280 510 810

(4,400 - 9,800) (3,800 - 8,600) (3,700 - 8,300) (3,500 - 8,000) (3,400 - 7,600) (540 - 1,200) (170 - 390) (310 - 710) (490 - 1,100)

6,400 5,700 5,400 5,200 5,000 800 250 460 730

(3,400 - 9,400) (3,000 - 8,300) (2,900 - 7,900) (2,800 - 7,600) (2,600 - 7,300) (420 - 1,200) (130 - 370) (240 - 680) (380 - 1,100)

5,000 4,400 4,300 4,100 3,900 620 200 360 570

(1,800 - 8,200) (1,600 - 7,300) (1,500 - 7,000) (1,400 - 6,700) (1,400 - 6,400) (220 - 1,000) (68 - 320) (130 - 600) (200 - 940)

4,900 4,300 4,100 4,000 3,800 600 190 350 550

(1,600 - 8,000) (1,400 - 7,100) (1,300 - 6,800) (1,300 - 6,600) (1,200 - 6,200) (200 - 1,000) (61 - 320) (110 - 580) (180 - 920)

4,300 3,800 3,600 3,500 3,300 530 170 310 490

(2,600 - 6,000) (2,300 - 5,300) (2,200 - 5,100) (2,100 - 4,900) (2,000 - 4,600) (320 - 740) (100 - 230) (190 - 430) (300 - 680)

ER-visits (asthma); NYC (Ito et al, 2007)

11,000 11,000 10,000 8,200 920 620 2,700

(9,200 - 14,000) (8,600 - 14,000) (8,200 - 13,000) (6,700 - 11,000) (740 - 1,200) (500 - 830) (2,200 - 3,600)

8,800 8,300 7,900 6,400 710 480 2,100

(6,500 - 12,000) (6,100 - 12,000) (5,800 - 11,000) (4,700 - 9,200) (510 - 1,000) (340 - 700) (1,500 - 3,100)

7,300 6,800 6,500 5,300 580 390 1,700

(5,000 - 11,000) (4,700 - 10,000) (4,400 - 9,800) (3,600 - 8,000) (390 - 890) (260 - 610) (1,200 - 2,700)

12,000 11,000 11,000 8,700 970 660 2,900

(9,900 - 15,000) (9,300 - 14,000) (8,800 - 13,000) (7,200 - 11,000) (800 - 1,300) (540 - 870) (2,400 - 3,800)

9,100 8,500 8,100 6,600 730 490 2,200

(6,900 - 13,000) (6,500 - 12,000) (6,100 - 11,000) (5,000 - 9,200) (550 - 1,000) (370 - 710) (1,600 - 3,100)

SO2

NA NA

Distributed lag 0-7 days

Average day lag 0-2

Tolbert

Tolbert-CO

Tolbert-NO2

Tolbert-PM10

Tolbert-PM10, NO2

Darrow

single pollutant model

PM2.5

NO2

CO

Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

2007 Simulation Year
20 

Table 7B-4b. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Morbidity – Emergency Room Visits (2009) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

ER Visits (repiratory); Atlanta (Strickland et al., 2007)

6,100 5,900 5,700 5,500 5,400 150 270 490 700

(4,300 - 7,700) (4,200 - 7,600) (4,100 - 7,300) (3,900 - 7,100) (3,800 - 6,900) (100 - 200) (190 - 350) (340 - 640) (480 - 910)

3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,100 86 150 280 400

(2,000 - 5,100) (1,900 - 5,000) (1,800 - 4,800) (1,800 - 4,700) (1,700 - 4,500) (46 - 130) (81 - 220) (150 - 410) (210 - 580)

ER-visits (respiratory); Atlanta (Tolbert et al., 2007, Darrow et al., 2011)

6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,900 120 230 440 620

(4,500 - 8,500) (4,500 - 8,400) (4,300 - 8,100) (4,200 - 7,900) (4,000 - 7,600) (84 - 160) (160 - 300) (300 - 570) (430 - 820)

5,800 5,700 5,500 5,400 5,200 110 200 390 550

(3,600 - 8,000) (3,500 - 7,900) (3,400 - 7,600) (3,300 - 7,400) (3,200 - 7,200) (66 - 150) (120 - 290) (240 - 540) (340 - 770)

5,300 5,200 5,000 4,900 4,700 97 180 350 500

(2,800 - 7,700) (2,700 - 7,600) (2,600 - 7,300) (2,600 - 7,100) (2,500 - 6,900) (51 - 140) (97 - 270) (180 - 520) (260 - 740)

4,100 4,100 3,900 3,800 3,700 76 140 270 390

(1,500 - 6,800) (1,400 - 6,600) (1,400 - 6,400) (1,300 - 6,200) (1,300 - 6,000) (27 - 130) (50 - 240) (95 - 450) (140 - 640)

4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 73 140 260 380

(1,300 - 6,600) (1,300 - 6,500) (1,200 - 6,300) (1,200 - 6,100) (1,200 - 5,900) (24 - 120) (45 - 230) (86 - 440) (120 - 630)

3,500 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 65 120 230 330

(2,200 - 4,900) (2,100 - 4,800) (2,000 - 4,700) (2,000 - 4,500) (1,900 - 4,400) (39 - 91) (74 - 170) (140 - 320) (200 - 470)

ER-visits (asthma); NYC (Ito et al, 2007)

10,000 10,000 9,900 8,500 -84 470 2,100

(8,300 - 13,000) (8,400 - 13,000) (8,100 - 13,000) (7,000 - 11,000) (-65 - -120) (380 - 630) (1,700 - 2,800)

8,000 8,100 7,800 6,700 -62 360 1,600

(5,900 - 11,000) (5,900 - 11,000) (5,700 - 11,000) (4,900 - 9,600) (-43 - -97) (260 - 530) (1,200 - 2,300)

6,600 6,700 6,400 5,500 -49 290 1,300

(4,500 - 9,900) (4,500 - 10,000) (4,400 - 9,700) (3,700 - 8,300) (-32 - -81) (200 - 460) (880 - 2,000)

11,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 -90 500 2,200

(9,000 - 14,000) (9,000 - 14,000) (8,700 - 13,000) (7,500 - 12,000) (-71 - -130) (410 - 660) (1,800 - 2,900)

8,200 8,300 8,000 6,900 -64 370 1,700

(6,300 - 11,000) (6,300 - 12,000) (6,100 - 11,000) (5,200 - 9,600) (-46 - -98) (280 - 530) (1,200 - 2,400)

NA NA

single pollutant model

PM2.5

NO2

CO

SO2

Tolbert

Tolbert-CO

Tolbert-NO2

Tolbert-PM10

Tolbert-PM10, NO2

Darrow

Distributed lag 0-7 days

Average day lag 0-2

Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

2009 Simulation Year

Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence
21 

Table 7B-5a. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Morbidity – Asthma Exacerbations (2007) 

a-previous day, b-same day

Table 7B-5b. Core Short-Term Ozone-Attributable Morbidity – Asthma Exacerbations (2009) 

a-previous day, b-same day

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Asthma exacerbation (wheeze); Boston (Gent et al., 2003, 2004)

41,000 40,000 40,000 38,000 37,000 1,500 1,200 3,300 5,100

(22,000 - 57,000) (21,000 - 56,000) (21,000 - 55,000) (20,000 - 53,000) (19,000 - 52,000) (720 - 2,200) (600 - 1,800) (1,600 - 4,900) (2,500 - 7,500)

30,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 28,000 530 680 1,900 3,000

(10,000 - 47,000) (9,900 - 47,000) (9,800 - 46,000) (9,400 - 45,000) (9,100 - 43,000) (170 - 870) (210 - 1,100) (580 - 3,100) (920 - 4,900)

42,000 41,000 40,000 39,000 37,000 1,500 1,200 3,300 5,100

(20,000 - 59,000) (19,000 - 58,000) (19,000 - 57,000) (18,000 - 56,000) (17,000 - 54,000) (640 - 2,300) (530 - 1,900) (1,400 - 5,100) (2,200 - 7,900)

39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 34,000 1,400 1,100 3,000 4,700

(16,000 - 57,000) (15,000 - 56,000) (15,000 - 55,000) (14,000 - 53,000) (14,000 - 52,000) (500 - 2,200) (420 - 1,800) (1,100 - 4,900) (1,800 - 7,500)

29,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 970 800 2,200 3,400

(3,700 - 51,000) (3,600 - 50,000) (3,500 - 49,000) (3,400 - 47,000) (3,200 - 45,000) (110 - 1,800) (93 - 1,500) (250 - 4,000) (400 - 6,200)

35,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 610 780 2,100 3,400

(7,200 - 58,000) (7,000 - 57,000) (6,900 - 56,000) (6,700 - 55,000) (6,400 - 53,000) (120 - 1,100) (150 - 1,400) (400 - 3,800) (640 - 6,000)

78,000 76,000 75,000 72,000 69,000 2,700 2,200 6,000 9,300

(29,000 - 120,000)(28,000 - 120,000)(28,000 - 110,000)(26,000 - 110,000)(25,000 - 110,000) (930 - 4,400) (760 - 3,700) (2,100 - 9,800) (3,200 - 15,000)

a-privous day, b-same day

 Chest Tightness (1hr max)

 Chest Tightness (8hr max)

 Chest Tightness (1hr max, PM2.5)a

Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

2007 Simulation Year

 Chest Tightness (1hr max, PM2.5)b

 Shortness of Breath (1hr max)

 Shortness of Breath (8hr max)

 Wheeze (PM2.5)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Asthma exacerbation (wheeze); Boston (Gent et al., 2003, 2004)

38,000 38,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 -92 290 1,400 2,800

(20,000 - 53,000) (20,000 - 53,000) (20,000 - 53,000) (19,000 - 52,000) (19,000 - 50,000) (-44 - -140) (140 - 430) (690 - 2,100) (1,400 - 4,200)

28,000 28,000 28,000 27,000 27,000 -220 -110 470 1,300

(9,100 - 43,000) (9,200 - 44,000) (9,200 - 44,000) (9,100 - 43,000) (8,800 - 42,000) (-66 - -370) (-32 - -190) (150 - 780) (410 - 2,200)

38,000 38,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 -93 300 1,400 2,900

(18,000 - 55,000) (18,000 - 55,000) (18,000 - 55,000) (17,000 - 54,000) (17,000 - 52,000) (-39 - -150) (130 - 460) (610 - 2,200) (1,200 - 4,400)

35,000 35,000 35,000 34,000 33,000 -84 270 1,300 2,600

(14,000 - 52,000) (14,000 - 53,000) (14,000 - 52,000) (14,000 - 51,000) (13,000 - 50,000) (-30 - -140) (100 - 430) (480 - 2,100) (980 - 4,200)

26,000 27,000 26,000 26,000 25,000 -59 190 930 1,900

(3,300 - 46,000) (3,300 - 46,000) (3,300 - 46,000) (3,200 - 45,000) (3,100 - 44,000) (-6.8 - -110) (23 - 360) (110 - 1,700) (220 - 3,500)

32,000 32,000 32,000 32,000 31,000 -250 -120 540 1,500

(6,500 - 53,000) (6,500 - 54,000) (6,500 - 54,000) (6,400 - 53,000) (6,200 - 52,000) (-46 - -450) (-22 - -230) (100 - 960) (280 - 2,600)

71,000 71,000 71,000 69,000 67,000 -170 530 2,600 5,200

(26,000 - 110,000)(26,000 - 110,000)(26,000 - 110,000)(25,000 - 110,000)(25,000 - 100,000) (-56 - -280) (190 - 870) (880 - 4,200) (1,800 - 8,500)

a-privous day, b-same day

Endpoint/Study Area/Descriptor

 Chest Tightness (1hr max)

 Chest Tightness (8hr max)

 Chest Tightness (1hr max, PM2.5)a

 Chest Tightness (1hr max, PM2.5)b

 Shortness of Breath (1hr max)

 Shortness of Breath (8hr max)

 Wheeze (PM2.5)

2009 Simulation Year

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 
22 

Table 7B-6. Core Long-Term Ozone-Attributable Respiratory Mortality (2007) (incidence, percent 

of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) (Jerrett et al., 2009) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

690 590 560 530 500 120 35 64 100

(250 - 1100) (210 - 920) (200 - 870) (190 - 840) (180 - 790) (42 - 200) (12 - 59) (22 - 110) (34 - 160)

420 390 380 360 340 41 17 35 57

(150 - 650) (140 - 610) (140 - 590) (130 - 560) (120 - 540) (14 - 67) (6 - 29) (12 - 57) (19 - 93)

660 640 620 590 570 24 20 53 82

(240 - 1000) (230 - 1000) (220 - 980) (210 - 930) (200 - 900) (8 - 39) (7 - 33) (18 - 88) (28 - 140)

340 330 310 300 270 13 16 35 64

(120 - 530) (120 - 510) (110 - 490) (110 - 470) (97 - 430) (4 - 21) (6 - 27) (12 - 58) (22 - 100)

340 330 320 300 290 16 13 26 43

(120 - 520) (120 - 500) (110 - 490) (110 - 470) (100 - 450) (5 - 26) (4 - 21) (9 - 44) (15 - 71)

620 600 580 560 540 24 28 50 78

(220 - 960) (220 - 940) (210 - 900) (200 - 880) (190 - 840) (8 - 40) (10 - 46) (17 - 82) (27 - 130)

470 460 450 450 440 18 8.0 16 27

(170 - 740) (160 - 720) (160 - 710) (160 - 700) (160 - 690) (6 - 30) (3 - 13) (5 - 26) (9 - 44)

1,600 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,300 57 82 160 240

(580 - 2500) (560 - 2400) (540 - 2300) (510 - 2200) (490 - 2100) (19 - 95) (28 - 140) (54 - 260) (83 - 400)

2,400 2,100 2,000 1,600 320 140 550

(860 - 3700) (750 - 3300) (710 - 3100) (570 - 2600) (110 - 530) (47 - 230) (190 - 900)

1,000 930 890 850 820 120 42 87 130

(370 - 1600) (330 - 1400) (320 - 1400) (310 - 1300) (290 - 1300) (42 - 200) (14 - 69) (30 - 140) (44 - 210)

350 300 290 280 260 56 14 26 44

(130 - 530) (110 - 470) (100 - 450) (100 - 440) (94 - 410) (19 - 92) (5 - 22) (9 - 43) (15 - 73)

520 480 460 430 410 48 27 56 84

(190 - 800) (170 - 750) (170 - 710) (160 - 680) (150 - 640) (16 - 80) (190 - 800) (19 - 92) (29 - 140)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 21.7 18.6 17.7 16.9 16.0 14 5 9 15

Baltimore, MD 20.3 18.8 18.1 17.4 16.5 8 4 8 12

Boston, MA 17.7 17.2 16.7 16.0 15.3 3 3 7 11

Cleveland, OH 18.2 17.7 16.9 16.1 14.8 3 4 9 17

Denver, CO 21.6 20.8 20.1 19.4 18.6 4 3 7 11

Detroit, MI 19.0 18.4 17.7 17.2 16.4 3 4 7 11

Houston, TX 16.9 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.5 3 1 3 5

Los Angeles, CA 21.0 20.4 19.6 18.8 17.8 3 4 9 13

New York, NY 19.0 16.9 15.9 13.1 NA 11 6 24 NA

Philadelphia, PA 20.4 18.4 17.7 17.0 16.3 10 4 8 12

Sacramento, CA 20.5 17.8 17.1 16.5 15.6 13 4 7 13

St. Louis, MO 20.3 18.8 17.9 17.0 16.0 7 5 10 15

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 24 21 20 19 18 4.4 1.3 2.3 3.5

Baltimore, MD 27 25 24 23 22 2.6 1.1 2.2 3.6

Boston, MA 24 24 23 22 21 0.88 0.74 2.0 3.1

Cleveland, OH 26 25 24 23 21 1.00 1.2 2.7 4.9

Denver, CO 24 23 23 22 21 1.1 0.91 1.9 3.1

Detroit, MI 24 23 22 21 20 0.91 1.1 1.9 3.0

Houston, TX 16 15 15 15 15 0.61 0.27 0.52 0.89

Los Angeles, CA 23 22 21 20 19 0.81 1.2 2.2 3.4

New York, NY 21 19 18 15 NA 2.9 1.3 4.9 NA

Philadelphia, PA 29 27 26 24 23 3.5 1.2 2.5 3.7

Sacramento, CA 29 25 24 23 22 4.7 1.1 2.2 3.7

St. Louis, MO 32 29 28 26 25 2.9 1.6 3.4 5.1

NA

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Cleveland, OH

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Study Area

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Study Area

NA

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Incidence Change in Incidence 
23 

Table 7B-7. Core Long-Term Ozone-Attributable Respiratory Mortality (2009) (incidence, percent 

of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) (Jerrett et al., 2009) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. For Detroit, 2009 base air quality already just meets existing standard.

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

570 550 520 500 480 26 32 59 82

(210 - 890) (200 - 860) (190 - 820) (180 - 790) (170 - 760) (9 - 43) (11 - 53) (20 - 98) (28 - 140)

380 360 350 340 320 25 12 27 41

(140 - 590) (130 - 560) (120 - 540) (120 - 530) (120 - 510) (8 - 41) (4 - 20) (9 - 44) (14 - 68)

580 580 580 560 540 -1.1 3.7 23 47

(210 - 910) (210 - 920) (210 - 910) (200 - 890) (190 - 860) (0 - -2) (1 - 6) (8 - 38) (16 - 77)

310 300 290 280 260 9.4 14 32 50

(110 - 490) (110 - 470) (100 - 460) (98 - 430) (92 - 410) (3 - 16) (5 - 24) (11 - 53) (17 - 82)

320 320 310 300 280 0.49 5.8 18 45

(120 - 490) (120 - 490) (110 - 490) (110 - 470) (100 - 440) (0 - 1) (2 - 10) (6 - 30) (16 - 75)

540 540 550 530 510 -6.7 14 38

(190 - 850) (190 - 850) (200 - 850) (190 - 830) (180 - 800) (-2 - -11) (5 - 23) (13 - 64)

490 490 480 470 460 -3.9 11 24 40

(170 - 760) (180 - 770) (170 - 750) (170 - 740) (160 - 720) (-1 - -7) (4 - 18) (8 - 40) (14 - 66)

1,600 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,400 63 77 160 250

(590 - 2500) (570 - 2400) (550 - 2300) (520 - 2200) (500 - 2100) (21 - 100) (26 - 130) (54 - 260) (84 - 400)

2,100 2,000 1,900 1,700 61 120 420

(750 - 3300) (730 - 3200) (690 - 3000) (590 - 2700) (21 - 100) (40 - 200) (140 - 690)

880 850 820 790 770 40 31 66 97

(320 - 1400) (310 - 1300) (300 - 1300) (280 - 1200) (270 - 1200) (13 - 66) (11 - 52) (23 - 110) (33 - 160)

360 310 300 280 270 61 14 28 44

(130 - 550) (110 - 480) (110 - 460) (100 - 450) (96 - 420) (21 - 100) (5 - 24) (9 - 46) (15 - 73)

450 440 430 410 390 5.6 19 41 66

(160 - 700) (160 - 690) (150 - 670) (150 - 650) (140 - 610) (2 - 9) (160 - 700) (14 - 67) (23 - 110)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 17.6 17.0 16.2 15.4 14.8 4 5 9 13

Baltimore, MD 18.4 17.4 16.9 16.3 15.7 5 3 6 10

Boston, MA 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.4 14.9 -0.2 1 3 7

Cleveland, OH 17.2 16.8 16.1 15.3 14.5 2 4 9 15

Denver, CO 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.1 17.7 0.1 1 5 12

Detroit, MI 17.0 17.0 17.2 16.6 16.0 NA -1 2 6

Houston, TX 16.8 16.9 16.6 16.3 15.8 -1 2 4 7

Los Angeles, CA 21.4 20.7 19.9 19.1 18.1 3 4 8 13

New York, NY 17.1 16.7 15.9 13.8 NA 2 5 18 NA

Philadelphia, PA 17.9 17.2 16.7 16.1 15.5 4 3 7 10

Sacramento, CA 20.9 18.0 17.3 16.7 15.8 14 4 8 12

St. Louis, MO 17.9 17.7 17.1 16.4 15.5 1 4 8 13

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 19 19 18 17 16 0.88 1.1 2.0 2.8

Baltimore, MD 23 22 22 21 20 1.5 0.75 1.7 2.6

Boston, MA 21 21 21 21 20 -0.041 0.13 0.82 1.7

Cleveland, OH 24 23 22 21 20 0.73 1.1 2.5 3.8

Denver, CO 22 22 22 21 19 0.034 0.40 1.3 3.1

Detroit, MI 21 21 21 20 19 NA -0.25 0.52 1.5

Houston, TX 15 15 15 15 14 -0.12 0.35 0.76 1.3

Los Angeles, CA 22 22 21 20 19 0.87 1.1 2.2 3.4

New York, NY 18 18 17 15 NA 0.54 1.0 3.7 NA

Philadelphia, PA 25 24 23 22 22 1.1 0.88 1.9 2.7

Sacramento, CA 29 25 24 23 22 5.0 1.2 2.3 3.6

St. Louis, MO 27 27 26 25 23 0.34 1.1 2.4 3.9

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Study Area

Study Area

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Cleveland, OH

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA

Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

NA NA

NA

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Incidence Change in Incidence 
24 

Appendix 7C – Detailed Sensitivity Analysis Results

Table 7C-1. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Smaller Smith et al., 2009-based study area (2009) 

(incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) - compare with Core Results in 

Table 7B-2 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

64 64 64 62 61 -1 1 2 4

(-25 - 210) (-26 - 210) (-25 - 210) (-25 - 210) (-24 - 200) (0 - -2) (0 - 3) (-1 - 8) (-2 - 13)

55 58 58 57 56 -3 0 1 2

(5 - 140) (6 - 150) (6 - 140) (5 - 140) (5 - 140) (0 - -8) (0 - 1) (0 - 3) (0 - 6)

24 25 26 26 26 -1 -1 -1 -1

(-10 - 82) (-10 - 84) (-11 - 87) (-11 - 87) (-10 - 86) (0 - -2) (0 - -4) (0 - -3) (0 - -2)

170 180 170 170 160 -8 4 10 18

(61 - 350) (64 - 360) (63 - 360) (60 - 340) (57 - 330) (-3 - -17) (1 - 8) (4 - 21) (7 - 38)

41 42 42 42 40 0 -1 0 2

(-61 - 210) (-62 - 210) (-63 - 220) (-62 - 210) (-59 - 200) (1 - -3) (1 - -3) (0 - 0) (-3 - 11)

220 220 230 220 220 -11 -7 0

(97 - 420) (97 - 420) (100 - 440) (100 - 430) (97 - 420) (-5 - -22) (-3 - -14) (0 - 0)

350 380 380 380 380 -36 -2 -1 3

(180 - 620) (200 - 690) (200 - 690) (200 - 690) (200 - 680) (-19 - -66) (-1 - -3) (0 - -2) (2 - 6)

520 600 580 560 520 -83 21 44 81

(89 - 1200) (100 - 1400) (99 - 1400) (95 - 1300) (89 - 1200) (-14 - -200) (4 - 50) (8 - 110) (14 - 190)

1200 1400 1400 1200 -170 5 140

(930 - 1700) (1100 - 1900) (1100 - 1900) (950 - 1700) (-130 - -240) (4 - 6) (110 - 200)

210 220 220 220 220 -15 1 3 5

(110 - 370) (120 - 390) (120 - 390) (120 - 390) (120 - 380) (-8 - -27) (0 - 1) (1 - 5) (3 - 9)

110 110 110 110 110 1 2 4 7

(-23 - 340) (-23 - 340) (-23 - 340) (-22 - 330) (-22 - 320) (0 - 2) (0 - 6) (-1 - 11) (-1 - 20)

36 37 39 39 39 -1 -2 -3 -2

(10 - 80) (10 - 81) (11 - 86) (11 - 87) (11 - 86) (0 - -2) (-1 - -5) (-1 - -6) (-1 - -5)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 -1 1 4 6

Baltimore, MD 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 -6 1 2 4

Boston, MA 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 -2 -4 -4 -2

Cleveland, OH 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 -5 2 5 10

Denver, CO 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 -1 -1 -0.2 5

Detroit, MI 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 NA -5 -3 0.03

Houston, TX 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 -10 -1 -0.3 1

Los Angeles, CA 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 -16 3 7 13

New York, NY 3.7 4.2 4.1 3.8 NA -14 0.3 10 NA

Philadelphia, PA 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 -7 0.2 1 2

Sacramento, CA 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1 2 3 6

St. Louis, MO 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 -2 -6 -7 -6

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 -0.041 0.050 0.15 0.25

Baltimore, MD 8.8 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.0 -0.52 0.073 0.21 0.38

Boston, MA 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 -0.084 -0.16 -0.14 -0.087

Cleveland, OH 13 14 13 13 12 -0.63 0.28 0.77 1.4

Denver, CO 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 -0.030 -0.036 -0.0040 0.13

Detroit, MI 12 12 12 12 12 NA -0.62 -0.38 0.011

Houston, TX 8.6 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.4 -0.91 -0.047 -0.022 0.081

Los Angeles, CA 5.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.3 -0.85 0.21 0.45 0.83

New York, NY 13 15 15 14 NA -1.9 0.050 1.5 NA

Philadelphia, PA 14 15 15 15 14 -1.0 0.039 0.18 0.34

Sacramento, CA 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.6 0.060 0.13 0.26 0.46

St. Louis, MO 11 12 12 12 12 -0.27 -0.66 -0.82 -0.69

NA

NA NA

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Air Quality Scenario

Study Area

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Philadelphia, PA

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Cleveland, OH

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX
25 

Table 7C-1. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Smaller Smith et al., 2009-based study area (2009) 

(heat maps for just meeting existing standard and risk reductions from just meeting alternative 

standards) (see Key at bottom of figure) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

Key: For current standard (75) which is an absolute risk metric, color gradient ranges from blue (smallest ozone-related 

mortality count) to red (highest ozone-related mortality count). For Decrease results, color gradient ranges from red 

(increase in risk – negative cell values) to blue (reduction in risk – positive cell values). 

Current Standard (75)

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 8 12 11 7 8 2 0 0 0 61

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 11 10 14 10 7 2 0 0 0 63

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 4 4 4 1 0 0 1 0 25

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 2 11 20 30 33 35 25 12 5 3 0 0 176

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 9 11 10 3 1 0 0 42

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 3 3 10 18 26 43 56 15 19 18 0 8 2 221

Houston, TX 0 0 0 3 15 28 66 68 61 49 46 19 15 4 2 2 378

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 129 151 228 70 4 0 0 0 590

New York, NY 0 0 0 3 18 106 211 175 312 232 135 86 28 0 0 0 1,305

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 1 3 11 33 26 46 37 43 19 14 0 0 0 234

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 1 7 19 21 22 17 13 10 2 0 0 0 112

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 5 5 8 7 5 1 1 0 0 38

Decrease 75 to 70

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 6

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 1 1 0 1 0 -8 -11 3

Houston, TX 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 -5 5

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 9 3 0 0 0 0 19 0 19

New York, NY 0 0 0 0 -2 -7 -4 4 11 15 11 9 3 0 0 0 41 -19 59

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 4 -2 6

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Decrease 75 to 65

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 4

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 3

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 13 -1 14

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 -2 -9 9

Houston, TX 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 2 3 2 2 0 0 0 2 -10 10

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 19 6 0 0 0 0 41 0 39

New York, NY 0 0 0 -1 -2 -8 8 26 53 59 40 31 10 0 0 0 215 -21 236

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 4 2 2 0 0 0 9 -3 12

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 -1 5

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 3

Decrease 75 to 60

Study area Daily 8hr Max Ozone Level (ppb) Total 

 0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 >75 Inc. Dec.

Atlanta, GA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 6 0 7

Baltimore, MD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 5

Boston, MA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 22 -1 24

Denver, CO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 4 0 4

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 1 4 2 3 3 0 2 1 6 -10 17

Houston, TX 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 0 3 4 6 3 3 1 1 0 8 -14 22

Los Angeles, CA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 15 20 29 10 1 0 0 0 75 0 76

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 3 4 5 3 2 0 0 0 14 -4 18

Sacramento, CA 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 6 -2 9

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 4

Change in risk

Change in risk

Change in risk

NA
26 

Table 7C-2. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Alternate method for simulating standards (2009) 

(incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) - compare with Core Results in 

Table 7B-2 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

56 57 57 56 52 -1 0 1 5

(-180 - 290) (-190 - 290) (-190 - 290) (-180 - 290) (-170 - 270) (3 - -5) (0 - -1) (-3 - 6) (-16 - 25)

460 460 460 450 430 -9 4 24

(23 - 880) (23 - 880) (24 - 890) (23 - 870) (22 - 830) (0 - -18) (0 - 7) (1 - 46)

550 580 580 580 560 -31 -2 2 18

(100 - 990) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (110 - 1000) (-6 - -57) (0 - -3) (0 - 3) (3 - 32)

670 690 680 660 640 -19 15 32 48

(-280 - 1600) (120 - 1700) (120 - 1600) (110 - 1600) (110 - 1500) (-3 - -46) (3 - 36) (5 - 77) (8 - 120)

2900 2900 2900 2700 -3 24 290

(1800 - 4100) (2300 - 4100) (2200 - 4100) (2000 - 3700) (-2 - -4) (18 - 33) (220 - 400)

820 810 790 780 750 9 16 35 58

(180 - 1400) (180 - 1400) (180 - 1400) (170 - 1400) (170 - 1300) (2 - 16) (4 - 28) (8 - 61) (13 - 100)

170 160 160 150 150 7 3 6 10

(-180 - 500) (-170 - 480) (-170 - 470) (-160 - 460) (-160 - 450) (-7 - 20) (-3 - 10) (-6 - 18) (-10 - 30)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Denver, CO 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 -2 -0.2 2 8

Detroit, MI 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 NA -2 1 5

Houston, TX 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 -6 -0.3 0.2 3

Los Angeles, CA 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 -3 2 5 7

New York, NY 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 NA -0.1 1 9 NA

Philadelphia, PA 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 1 2 4 7

Sacramento, CA 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 4 2 4 6

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Denver, CO 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 -0.039 -0.0044 0.042 0.19

Detroit, MI 11 11 11 10 10 NA -0.21 0.086 0.54

Houston, TX 9.4 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.7 -0.54 -0.026 0.028 0.30

Los Angeles, CA 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 -0.15 0.12 0.25 0.38

New York, NY 16 16 16 14 NA -0.014 0.13 1.5 NA

Philadelphia, PA 14 14 13 13 13 0.15 0.27 0.58 0.99

Sacramento, CA 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.1 0.30 0.15 0.28 0.46

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Philadelphia, PA

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI NA

Houston, TX

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Air Quality Scenario

Study Area

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Sacramento, CA

NA NA
27 

Table 7C-3. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Regional Bayes Adjustment (2009) (incidence, 

percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) - compare with Core Results in Table 7B-2) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

220 220 210 200 200 4 8 14 21

(-10 - 610) (-9 - 590) (-9 - 570) (-9 - 560) (-8 - 540) (0 - 11) (0 - 21) (-1 - 40) (-1 - 57)

460 460 450 440 430 7 9 20 32

(310 - 730) (300 - 720) (300 - 710) (290 - 690) (280 - 670) (4 - 10) (6 - 13) (13 - 32) (21 - 51)

570 570 570 560 550 -4 -2 9 25

(350 - 930) (350 - 940) (350 - 940) (340 - 920) (330 - 900) (-2 - -7) (-1 - -3) (6 - 15) (15 - 41)

290 300 290 280 260 -4 9 21 37

(160 - 510) (170 - 520) (160 - 500) (150 - 480) (150 - 460) (-2 - -6) (5 - 15) (12 - 38) (20 - 65)

10 10 10 10 9 0 0 0 1

(-130 - 240) (-130 - 240) (-130 - 240) (-130 - 230) (-120 - 220) (1 - -1) (0 - 1) (-3 - 6) (-11 - 21)

510 510 520 510 490 -19 -5 13

(290 - 860) (290 - 860) (310 - 890) (300 - 870) (290 - 840) (-11 - -32) (-3 - -9) (8 - 23)

470 500 500 500 490 -40 -1 3 10

(240 - 850) (260 - 920) (260 - 930) (250 - 920) (250 - 910) (-20 - -73) (0 - -1) (1 - 5) (5 - 19)

610 700 680 650 610 -90 23 49 90

(78 - 1500) (89 - 1700) (86 - 1700) (83 - 1600) (78 - 1500) (-11 - -220) (3 - 56) (6 - 120) (11 - 220)

3300 3400 3300 2800 -98 110 550

(2700 - 4300) (2700 - 4400) (2700 - 4300) (2300 - 3700) (-80 - -130) (87 - 140) (450 - 730)

1200 1200 1200 1100 1100 -6 20 47 73

(860 - 1700) (860 - 1700) (850 - 1700) (830 - 1600) (810 - 1600) (-4 - -9) (15 - 29) (34 - 68) (53 - 110)

59 58 57 56 54 2 1 2 3

(-150 - 400) (-140 - 390) (-140 - 390) (-140 - 380) (-140 - 370) (-4 - 11) (-2 - 7) (-5 - 13) (-8 - 23)

390 390 380 370 350 1 8 21 37

(200 - 690) (200 - 690) (200 - 680) (190 - 660) (180 - 630) (1 - 3) (4 - 15) (11 - 38) (20 - 68)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 2 3 7 9

Baltimore, MD 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 1 2 4 7

Boston, MA 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 -1 -0.3 1 4

Cleveland, OH 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 -1 3 7 12

Denver, CO 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.2 2 7

Detroit, MI 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 NA -4 -1 3

Houston, TX 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -8 -0.1 0.5 2

Los Angeles, CA 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 -15 3 7 13

New York, NY 4.2 4.4 4.2 3.7 NA -3 3 16 NA

Philadelphia, PA 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 -1 2 4 6

Sacramento, CA 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2 2 3 6

St. Louis, MO 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 0.4 2 5 9

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 0.077 0.15 0.28 0.40

Baltimore, MD 17 17 17 16 16 0.24 0.32 0.74 1.2

Boston, MA 13 13 13 12 12 -0.088 -0.043 0.20 0.55

Cleveland, OH 14 14 14 13 13 -0.17 0.42 1.0 1.8

Denver, CO 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.36 -0.0017 0.0014 0.0095 0.034

Detroit, MI 12 12 12 12 11 NA -0.43 -0.12 0.31

Houston, TX 8.0 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 -0.68 -0.0085 0.045 0.18

Los Angeles, CA 4.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.8 -0.70 0.18 0.38 0.70

New York, NY 17 18 17 15 NA -0.52 0.57 3.0 NA

Philadelphia, PA 20 20 19 19 19 -0.10 0.34 0.79 1.2

Sacramento, CA 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 0.076 0.046 0.091 0.16

St. Louis, MO 14 14 13 13 12 0.052 0.30 0.74 1.3

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Philadelphia, PA

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Cleveland, OH

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX

Study Area

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

NA

NA NA

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Air Quality Scenario
28 

Table 7C-4. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Copollutant model (PM10) (2009) (incidence, 

percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) - compare with Core Results in Table 7B-2) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

100 99 95 92 89 2 4 7 9

(-440 - 980) (-430 - 970) (-420 - 940) (-400 - 910) (-390 - 880) (-8 - 18) (-15 - 35) (-28 - 65) (-40 - 94)

240 230 230 220 220 3 4 10 16

(-70 - 740) (-69 - 730) (-68 - 720) (-66 - 700) (-64 - 680) (-1 - 10) (-1 - 14) (-3 - 32) (-5 - 52)

100 100 100 100 100 -1 0 2 5

(-330 - 820) (-330 - 820) (-340 - 830) (-330 - 810) (-320 - 790) (2 - -6) (1 - -3) (-5 - 13) (-14 - 36)

200 200 200 190 180 -3 6 15 25

(-16 - 560) (-16 - 570) (-16 - 550) (-15 - 530) (-14 - 500) (0 - -7) (0 - 17) (-1 - 41) (-2 - 71)

-13 -13 -13 -13 -12 0 0 0 -1

(-220 - 330) (-220 - 330) (-220 - 330) (-220 - 320) (-200 - 300) (1 - -2) (-1 - 1) (-5 - 8) (-19 - 28)

200 200 210 210 200 -7 -2 5

(-130 - 760) (-130 - 760) (-140 - 790) (-130 - 770) (-130 - 740) (5 - -28) (1 - -8) (-4 - 20)

690 750 750 750 730 -59 -1 4 16

(240 - 1400) (260 - 1600) (260 - 1600) (260 - 1600) (250 - 1500) (-20 - -130) (0 - -2) (1 - 8) (5 - 33)

160 190 180 170 160 -24 6 13 24

(-1100 - 2200) (-1200 - 2600) (-1200 - 2500) (-1200 - 2400) (-1100 - 2200) (160 - -330) (-40 - 83) (-85 - 180) (-160 - 330)

1300 1300 1300 1100 -38 42 220

(-25 - 3500) (-26 - 3600) (-25 - 3500) (-22 - 3000) (1 - -110) (-1 - 110) (-4 - 600)

630 630 620 610 590 -3 11 25 39

(-61 - 1800) (-61 - 1800) (-60 - 1700) (-59 - 1700) (-57 - 1700) (0 - -9) (-1 - 31) (-2 - 71) (-4 - 110)

150 150 150 150 140 4 3 5 9

(-190 - 720) (-190 - 710) (-180 - 690) (-180 - 680) (-180 - 670) (-5 - 20) (-3 - 12) (-6 - 24) (-11 - 41)

210 210 200 200 190 1 4 11 20

(-180 - 840) (-180 - 840) (-180 - 830) (-170 - 800) (-160 - 760) (-1 - 3) (-4 - 18) (-10 - 46) (-17 - 83)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 2 3 6 9

Baltimore, MD 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1 2 4 7

Boston, MA 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -1 -0.4 1 4

Cleveland, OH 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 -1 3 7 12

Denver, CO -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 1 3 10

Detroit, MI 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 NA -4 -1 3

Houston, TX 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 -8 -0.1 0.5 2

Los Angeles, CA 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -14 3 7 12

New York, NY 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 NA -3 3 16 NA

Philadelphia, PA 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 -1 2 4 6

Sacramento, CA 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 2 2 3 6

St. Louis, MO 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.3 2 5 9

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 0.035 0.066 0.13 0.18

Baltimore, MD 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.1 0.12 0.16 0.37 0.61

Boston, MA 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 -0.016 -0.0076 0.036 0.100

Cleveland, OH 9.7 9.8 9.5 9.1 8.6 -0.12 0.28 0.70 1.2

Denver, CO -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 -0.51 -0.48 0.0023 -0.0019 -0.012 -0.044

Detroit, MI 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.6 NA -0.17 -0.049 0.12

Houston, TX 12 13 13 13 13 -1.0 -0.013 0.068 0.27

Los Angeles, CA 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 -0.19 0.047 0.10 0.19

New York, NY 6.9 7.1 6.9 6.0 NA -0.20 0.22 1.2 NA

Philadelphia, PA 11 11 10 10 10.0 -0.053 0.18 0.42 0.65

Sacramento, CA 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 0.20 0.12 0.24 0.41

St. Louis, MO 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.7 0.028 0.16 0.40 0.71

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Philadelphia, PA

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Cleveland, OH

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX

Study Area

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

NA

NA NA

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Air Quality Scenario
29 

Table 7C-5. Sensitivity Analysis – ST Mortality: Alternate risk model (Zanobetti and Schwartz, 

2008) (2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) - compare with 

Core Results in Table 7B-2) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

120 110 100 96 91 6 8 14 19

(-14 - 330) (-14 - 320) (-13 - 290) (-12 - 280) (-11 - 260) (-1 - 18) (-1 - 24) (-2 - 41) (-2 - 56)

130 120 120 110 110 13 4 10 15

(40 - 290) (36 - 260) (35 - 250) (33 - 240) (32 - 230) (4 - 29) (1 - 10) (3 - 21) (4 - 32)

220 220 210 210 200 1 6 11 19

(99 - 420) (98 - 420) (96 - 410) (93 - 400) (90 - 390) (0 - 2) (3 - 11) (5 - 22) (9 - 37)

120 110 110 100 95 5 5 12 20

(38 - 260) (37 - 240) (35 - 230) (33 - 220) (30 - 200) (2 - 11) (2 - 11) (4 - 27) (6 - 44)

62 62 60 57 51 0 2 4 10

(-21 - 200) (-21 - 200) (-20 - 190) (-20 - 180) (-18 - 170) (0 - 1) (-1 - 6) (-1 - 14) (-4 - 33)

370 370 380 370 350 -6 5 21

(230 - 600) (230 - 600) (240 - 610) (230 - 600) (220 - 570) (-4 - -10) (3 - 8) (13 - 35)

52 56 56 55 54 -4 0 1 3

(-45 - 220) (-48 - 230) (-48 - 230) (-47 - 230) (-46 - 220) (3 - -15) (0 - 1) (-1 - 4) (-2 - 10)

270 270 260 240 230 6 13 27 40

(28 - 690) (28 - 670) (27 - 640) (25 - 600) (24 - 570) (1 - 16) (1 - 32) (3 - 69) (4 - 100)

1500 1500 1400 1000 96 110 420

(1200 - 2200) (1100 - 2100) (1000 - 1900) (790 - 1500) (72 - 140) (83 - 160) (320 - 600)

360 340 320 310 300 24 12 26 38

(150 - 700) (140 - 660) (140 - 640) (130 - 610) (130 - 590) (10 - 47) (5 - 24) (11 - 51) (16 - 76)

110 93 89 86 82 15 4 7 12

(23 - 250) (20 - 210) (19 - 210) (19 - 200) (18 - 190) (3 - 36) (1 - 9) (2 - 17) (3 - 27)

160 150 150 140 130 2 8 15 24

(46 - 340) (46 - 330) (43 - 320) (41 - 300) (39 - 280) (1 - 5) (2 - 17) (5 - 34) (7 - 53)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 5 7 13 17

Baltimore, MD 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 10 4 8 12

Boston, MA 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 0.3 2 5 8

Cleveland, OH 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 4 4 10 17

Denver, CO 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1 3 7 16

Detroit, MI 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.9 NA -2 1 5

Houston, TX 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -7 0.3 2 4

Los Angeles, CA 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 2 5 10 15

New York, NY 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.0 NA 6 7 28 NA

Philadelphia, PA 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 6 3 7 11

Sacramento, CA 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 14 4 7 12

St. Louis, MO 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1 5 10 15

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 0.12 0.16 0.27 0.37

Baltimore, MD 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.9 0.49 0.16 0.35 0.55

Boston, MA 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 0.017 0.13 0.25 0.42

Cleveland, OH 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.6 0.25 0.25 0.59 0.97

Denver, CO 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 0.014 0.077 0.17 0.41

Detroit, MI 8.6 8.6 8.8 8.5 8.2 NA -0.14 0.12 0.50

Houston, TX 0.90 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.92 -0.062 0.0029 0.016 0.043

Los Angeles, CA 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 0.050 0.10 0.21 0.31

New York, NY 8.2 7.8 7.2 5.6 NA 0.51 0.59 2.2 NA

Philadelphia, PA 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.0 0.40 0.20 0.43 0.64

Sacramento, CA 5.1 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 0.72 0.17 0.34 0.55

St. Louis, MO 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.6 0.075 0.28 0.55 0.86

NA

NA NA

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Air Quality Scenario

Study Area

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Philadelphia, PA

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Cleveland, OH

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX
30 

Table 7C-6. Sensitivity Analysis – LT Mortality: Alternate risk model (regional effect estimates)

(2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) - compare with Core 

Results in Table 7B-7) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb. 

 

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

1,400 1,300 1,300 1,200 1,200 75 92 170 230

(720 - 1900) (690 - 1800) (660 - 1800) (630 - 1700) (610 - 1700) (34 - 110) (42 - 140) (77 - 260) (110 - 350)

-110 -100 -100 -96 -92 -6.4 -3.1 -6.9 -11

(-1200 - 590) (-1100 - 560) (-1000 - 550) (-980 - 530) (-930 - 510) (-55 - 41) (-27 - 20) (-59 - 44) (-93 - 68)

-170 -170 -170 -160 -150 0.29 -0.95 -5.8 -12

(-1700 - 920) (-1700 - 920) (-1700 - 920) (-1600 - 890) (-1500 - 860) (3 - -2) (-8 - 6) (-50 - 38) (-100 - 77)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

(-990 - 630) (-950 - 620) (-900 - 600) (-840 - 570) (-780 - 540) (-22 - 22) (-34 - 33) (-76 - 73) (-120 - 110)

450 450 440 430 400 0.73 8.6 27 67

(-26 - 780) (-26 - 780) (-26 - 770) (-25 - 760) (-23 - 710) (0 - 2) (0 - 18) (-1 - 55) (-3 - 130)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

(-1700 - 1100) (-1700 - 1100) (-1700 - 1100) (-1700 - 1100) (-1600 - 1000) (15 - -15) (-31 - 31) (-90 - 88)

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,100 -11 32 69 110

(610 - 1600) (620 - 1600) (610 - 1600) (590 - 1600) (580 - 1500) (-5 - -18) (14 - 49) (31 - 110) (51 - 170)

450 440 420 400 380 16 19 41 63

(-2400 - 2500) (-2300 - 2400) (-2200 - 2300) (-2100 - 2200) (-1900 - 2100) (-72 - 100) (-87 - 120) (-180 - 260) (-290 - 400)

-600 -580 -550 -470 -16 -31 -110

(-6200 - 3300) (-6000 - 3200) (-5600 - 3100) (-4600 - 2700) (-130 - 100) (-260 - 200) (-960 - 690)

-260 -240 -240 -230 -220 -10 -8.0 -17 -25

(-2700 - 1400) (-2500 - 1300) (-2400 - 1300) (-2300 - 1300) (-2200 - 1200) (-88 - 66) (-69 - 52) (-150 - 110) (-220 - 160)

500 440 420 400 380 90 21 41 65

(-29 - 870) (-25 - 770) (-24 - 750) (-23 - 720) (-21 - 690) (-5 - 180) (-1 - 43) (-2 - 82) (-3 - 130)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

(-1400 - 910) (-1400 - 910) (-1400 - 880) (-1300 - 850) (-1200 - 810) (-13 - 13) (-44 - 43) (-96 - 92) (-160 - 150)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 42.6 41.3 39.6 38.1 36.9 3.1 4.0 7.6 10.7

Baltimore, MD -7.4 -6.9 -6.6 -6.3 -5.9 7.7 4.0 8.7 13.4

Boston, MA -6.1 -6.1 -6.0 -5.8 -5.5 -0.2 0.7 4.5 9.2

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Denver, CO 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.3 24.5 0.1 1.3 4.2 10.7

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 0 NA 0 0 0

Houston, TX 41.0 41.2 40.6 39.8 38.9 -0.5 1.5 3.4 5.7

Los Angeles, CA 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 2.4 3.1 6.7 10.6

New York, NY -6.7 -6.5 -6.0 -5.0 NA 3.4 6.8 23.5 NA

Philadelphia, PA -7.1 -6.7 -6.5 -6.1 -5.9 5.3 4.3 9.1 13.3

Sacramento, CA 28.5 24.9 24.0 23.2 22.1 12.8 3.6 6.9 11.2

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 47 44 44 41 41 2.5 3.1 5.8 7.8

Baltimore, MD -6.8 -6.2 -6.2 -6.0 -5.7 -0.40 -0.19 -0.43 -0.68

Boston, MA -6.2 -6.2 -6.2 -5.8 -5.5 0.011 -0.035 -0.21 -0.44

Cleveland, OH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Denver, CO 31 31 30 30 27 0.050 0.59 1.9 4.6

Detroit, MI 0 0 0 0 0 NA 0 0 0

Houston, TX 38 38 38 38 35 -0.35 1.0 2.2 3.5

Los Angeles, CA 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.3 0.22 0.26 0.57 0.87

New York, NY -5.3 -5.1 -4.9 -4.2 NA -0.14 -0.27 -0.97 NA

Philadelphia, PA -7.3 -6.8 -6.8 -6.5 -6.2 -0.28 -0.23 -0.48 -0.71

Sacramento, CA 41 36 34 33 31 7.4 1.7 3.4 5.3

St. Louis, MO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Ozone-Attributable Incidence Change in Ozone-Attributable Incidence 

Sacramento, CA

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000 Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Cleveland, OH

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

St. Louis, MO

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Attributable to Ozone Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

NA

NA NA
31 

Table 7C-7. Sensitivity Analysis – LT Mortality: Alternate risk model (ozone-only effect estimate)

(2009) (incidence, percent of baseline mortality, incidence per 100,000) - compare with Core 

Results in Table 7B-7) 

NA: for NYC, the model-based adjustment methodology was unable to estimate ozone concentrations that would meet the alternative 

standard level of 60 ppb.

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

400 390 370 350 340 18 22 40 56

(120 - 660) (120 - 630) (110 - 600) (100 - 580) (100 - 550) (5 - 30) (6 - 37) (12 - 69) (16 - 96)

260 250 240 230 230 17 8.2 18 28

(80 - 430) (75 - 410) (73 - 400) (70 - 380) (67 - 370) (5 - 29) (2 - 14) (5 - 31) (8 - 48)

410 410 400 390 380 -0.77 2.5 15 32

(120 - 670) (120 - 670) (120 - 670) (120 - 650) (110 - 620) (0 - -1) (1 - 4) (4 - 26) (9 - 54)

220 210 200 190 180 6.4 9.9 22 34

(65 - 360) (63 - 350) (61 - 330) (57 - 320) (54 - 300) (2 - 11) (3 - 17) (6 - 37) (10 - 58)

220 220 220 210 200 0.34 3.9 12 31

(68 - 370) (68 - 360) (67 - 360) (65 - 350) (59 - 320) (0 - 1) (1 - 7) (4 - 21) (9 - 53)

380 380 380 370 350 -4.5 9.2 26

(110 - 620) (110 - 620) (110 - 630) (110 - 610) (110 - 580) (-1 - -8) (3 - 16) (8 - 45)

340 340 340 330 320 -2.7 7.5 16 27

(100 - 560) (100 - 560) (100 - 550) (98 - 540) (95 - 520) (-1 - -5) (2 - 13) (5 - 28) (8 - 46)

1,100 1,100 1,100 1,000 960 43 52 110 170

(350 - 1900) (340 - 1800) (320 - 1700) (310 - 1700) (290 - 1600) (12 - 73) (15 - 89) (31 - 180) (49 - 290)

1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 42 81 290

(440 - 2400) (430 - 2300) (400 - 2200) (350 - 1900) (12 - 71) (23 - 140) (83 - 490)

620 590 580 550 530 27 21 45 66

(190 - 1000) (180 - 970) (170 - 940) (170 - 910) (160 - 880) (8 - 46) (6 - 36) (13 - 77) (19 - 110)

250 220 210 200 190 42 9.8 19 30

(76 - 410) (65 - 350) (62 - 340) (60 - 330) (56 - 310) (12 - 71) (3 - 17) (5 - 32) (9 - 51)

320 310 300 290 270 3.8 13 28 45

(95 - 520) (94 - 510) (90 - 490) (86 - 470) (81 - 450) (1 - 7) (95 - 520) (8 - 47) (13 - 77)

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 12.4 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.4 4 5 10 14

Baltimore, MD 12.9 12.2 11.9 11.4 11.0 6 3 7 10

Boston, MA 11.1 11.2 11.1 10.8 10.4 -0.2 1 3 7

Cleveland, OH 12.1 11.8 11.3 10.7 10.1 3 4 10 15

Denver, CO 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.5 12.4 0.1 2 5 12

Detroit, MI 11.9 11.9 12.0 11.7 11.2 NA -1 2 6

Houston, TX 11.8 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.0 -1 2 4 7

Los Angeles, CA 15.1 14.6 14.1 13.4 12.7 3 4 9 14

New York, NY 12.0 11.7 11.1 9.6 NA 3 5 19 NA

Philadelphia, PA 12.5 12.1 11.7 11.2 10.9 4 3 7 10

Sacramento, CA 14.7 12.6 12.1 11.7 11.1 14 4 8 13

St. Louis, MO 12.6 12.4 12.0 11.5 10.9 1 4 8 13

Base 75ppb 70ppb 65ppb 60ppb Base-75 75-70 75-65 75-60

Atlanta, GA 14 13 12 12 11 0.60 0.74 1.4 1.9

Baltimore, MD 16 16 15 15 14 1.0 0.51 1.1 1.7

Boston, MA 15 15 15 14 14 -0.028 0.091 0.56 1.2

Cleveland, OH 17 16 16 15 14 0.49 0.76 1.7 2.6

Denver, CO 15 15 15 15 14 0.023 0.27 0.85 2.1

Detroit, MI 14 14 15 14 14 NA -0.17 0.35 1.00

Houston, TX 11 11 11 10 10 -0.084 0.24 0.51 0.86

Los Angeles, CA 16 15 15 14 13 0.59 0.72 1.5 2.3

New York, NY 13 13 12 10 NA 0.37 0.71 2.5 NA

Philadelphia, PA 17 17 16 16 15 0.76 0.60 1.3 1.9

Sacramento, CA 21 18 17 16 15 3.4 0.80 1.5 2.5

St. Louis, MO 19 19 18 17 16 0.23 0.76 1.6 2.7

Air Quality Scenario

Percent of Baseline Incidence Change in O3-Attributable Risk

Air Quality Scenario

Absolute Incidence Change in Incidence 

Study Area

Air Quality Scenario

Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

Cleveland, OH

Sacramento, CA

St. Louis, MO

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

Houston, TX

Los Angeles, CA

New York, NY

Philadelphia, PA

Change in Ozone-Attributable Deaths per 100,000

NA NA

NA

Atlanta, GA

Baltimore, MD

Boston, MA

Study Area

Study Area