PossiIble

spending in two ways:

®increase purchase prices of ballasts

® cr ase energy expenditures . d

Direct

detail manufacturer impacts analysis

Indirect employment impacts

eliminated in the U .S. population at large as a

consequence of new energy efficiency standards

3/11®12/98 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 21GG

Indirect Employment Impacts 

.. Possible standards could affect consumer 

spending in two ways: 

... increase the purchase prices of ballasts 

.. decrease energy expenditures. 

.. Direct employment impacts will be analyzed in 

detail in the manufacturer impacts analysis 

.. Indirect employment impacts are net jobs created 

or eliminated in the U.S. population at large as a 

consequence of new energy efficiency standards 

3/11-12/98 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 
Electricity

Commercial: billion

® Ind ustrial: billion

Possible efficiency

energy expendi tures , , usually offsetti ng

increases in equ i pment

The savi ngs from

may be spent to purchase other items.

input/output model,estimates the effects on

other sectors of the

3/11 -12/98 Fluorescent Ballasts

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 21GG

Background and ap roac 

'. Electricity expenditures in 1996 were: 

~ Commercial: $75 billion 

. - Industrial: $47 billion 

• Possible energy efficiency stan~ards reduce 

energy expenditures, usually offsetting projected 

increases in equipment prices over time 

• The savings from reduced energy expenditures 

may be spent to purchase other items. 

CD An input/output model estimates the effects on 

other sectors of the economy 

. 3111-12/98 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 
cssib 6 ind wir,ffct

• Reduced spending for electricity may cause ,

reductions in employment in the energy supply

sector (electricity and fuels used to generate

electricity)

Shifting

items create

Net job creation or eli wi ll

3/11-12/98 Fluorescent

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 21GG

Possible indirect impact 

. 

• Reduced spending for electricity may cause 

. reductions in employment in the energy supply 

sector (electricity and fuels used to generate 

electricity) 

• Shifting spending away from energy toward other 

items may create jobs in other sectors 

• Net job creation or elimination will be estimated . 

3/11-12/98 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 
•

opreadsheet model developed by PNNL in 1998

for DOE

U .S. economy characterized as interconnections

among 35 sectors as national input-output

structural matrices'

Input: shifts in exi

(from sh ipments and National Energy Savings

forecast)

Output: change in employment by sector as a

consequence of new standards

3/11-12/98 Fluorescent Bal lasts

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 21GG

IMBUILO 

• Spreadsheet model developed by PNNL in 1998 

for DOE 

• U.S. economy characterized as interconnections 

among 35 sectors as national input-output 

structural matrices 

• Input: shifts in expenditures due to standards 

(from shipments and National Energy Savings 

forecast) 

0" Output: change in employment by sector as a 

consequence of new standards 

3/11-12/98 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 
Indirect Employment Impacts of

Possible Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

.Su ry

Indirect impacts are defined as net jobs created or eliminated in the population at large as

a consequence of reduced spending on energy, and, possibly, increased spending on the purchase

prices as a consequence of energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. National

impacts will be estimated for major sectors of the U.S. economy. Public and commercially

available data sources will be utilized to estimate employment impacts. Public domain or

commercially available software will be utilized. At least three scenarios will be analyzed to

bound the range of uncertainty in future energy prices. All methods and documentation will be

made available for review.

ftrpose ofthe Analysis

If enacted, new energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts are expected to

reduce expenditures for energy in buildings. The Indirect Employment Impacts analysis is

intended to estimate national job creation or elimination from possible standards, indirect effects

resulting from reallocation of the associated consumer expenditures for purchasing and operating

lighting equipment.

Assumptions

In 1996, expenditures for electricity in commercial buildings exceeded $75 billion per year,

and $47 billion per year for industrial customers. If enacted, new energy efficiency standards are

expected to decrease energy consumption, and therefore reduce expenditures for energy. The

same standards may increase the purchase price of fluorescent lamp ballasts. Over time, the

increased purchase price is expected to be paid.back through energy savings. The savings in

energy expenditures may be spent on other items. Using an input/output model of the U.S.

economy, this analysis seeks to estimate the effects on different sectors, and the net impact on

jobs.

A simple model might involve reduced expenditures for energy, but reallocation of those

monies into other expenditures. Even savings of a few dollars per customer per year, taken in

aggregate for the nation, may trigger some changes in employment. While the creation of a new

industry is not anticipated, small increases in jobs in many sectors may occur at the same time that

decreases may occur for energy supply and lighting equipment manufacturing employment. This

analysis is intended to quantify the indirect employment impacts from energy efficiency standards.

(Direct impacts on lighting equipment manufacturers will be estimated in more detail elsewhere).

Methods

The existing structure of the economy from 1977 through 1994 has been derived from

1

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 21GG

Summary 

Indirect Employment Impacts of 

Possible Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts 

Indirect impacts are defined as net jobs created or eliminated in the population at large as 

a consequence of reduced spending on energy, and, possibly, increased spending on the purchase 

prices as a consequence of energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. National 

impacts will be estimated for major sectors of the U.S. economy. Public and commercially 

available data sources will be utilized to estimate employment impacts. Public domain or 

commercially available software will be utilized. At least three scenarios will be analyzed to 

bound the range of uncertainty in future energy prices. All methods and documentation will be 

made available for review. 

Purpose of the Analysis 

If enacted, new energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts are expected to 

reduce expenditures for energy in buildings. The Indirect ~mployment Impacts analysis is 

intended to estimate national job creation or elimination from possible standards, indirect effects 

resulting from reallocation of the associated consumer expenditures for purchasing and operating 

lighting equipment. 

Assumptions 

In 1996, expenditures for electricity in commercial buildings exceeded $75.billion per year, 

and $47 billion per year for industrial customers. If enacted, new energy efficiency standards are 

expected to decrease energy consumption, and therefore reduce expenditures for energy. The 

same standards may increase the purchase price of fluorescent lamp ballasts. Over time, the 

increased purchase price is expected to be paid .back through energy savings. The savings in 

energy expenditures may be spent on other items. Using an input/output model of the U.S. 

economy, this analysis seeks to estimate the effects on different sectors, and the net impact on 

jobs. 

A simple model might involve reduced expenditures for energy, but reallocation of those 

monies into other expenditures. Even savings of a few dollars per customer per year, taken in 

aggregate for the nation, may trigger some changes in employment. While the creation of a new 

industry is not anticipated, small increases in jobs in many sectors may occur at the same time that 

decreases may occur for energy supply and lighting equipment manufacturing employment. This 

analysis is intended to quantify the indirect employment impacts from energy efficiency standards. 

(Direct impacts on lighting equipment manufacturers will be estimated in more detail elsewhere). 

Methods 

The existing structure of the economy from 1977 through 1994 has been derived from 

1 
publicly available data. The Department of Energy's Office of Building Technology, State, and

Community Programs has developed a spreadsheet model that focuses on those sectors most

relevant to buildings. This software ( D) is a PC-based economic analysis system that

characterizes the interconnections among 35 sectors as national input-output structural matrices.

The model can be applied to future time periods. The UII,D output includes employment,

industry output, and wage income. The impacts of new energy efficiency standards will be

calculated, expressed as energy savings (reduced energy expenditures), and increased purchase

prices will be estimated for fluorescent lamp ballasts (see "Forecasting National Impacts"

elsewhere), then those changes in expenditures will be introduced to EMBUELD as perturbations

on the existing economic flows. The net national impact on jobs by sector will be estimated.

For example, energy efficiency standards could reduce commercial and industrial energy

expenditures and increase retail prices. In the short term, this may reduce jobs in lighting

equipment manufacturing and energy supply, while increasing expenditures on other consumer

items, causing job creation in other sectors, especially over the longer term.

Deliverables

All methods and documentation will be available for review by interested parties and the

public. The primary deliverable from the analysis will be national estimates of net job creation or

elimination by sector. A research report will be written describing the data sources, methods and

results.

2

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 21GG

publicly available data. The Department of Energy's Office of Building Technology, State, and 

Community Programs has developed a spreadsheet model that focuses on those sectors most 

relevant to buildings. This software (IMBUILD) is a PC-based economic analysis system that 

characterizes the interconnections among 35 sectors as national input-output structural matrices. 

The model can be applied to future time periods. The 1MBUILD output includes employment, 

industry output, and wage income. The impacts of new energy efficiency standards will be 

calculated, expressed as energy savings (reduced energy expenditures), and increased purchase 

prices will be estimated for fluorescent lamp ballasts (see "Forecasting National Impacts" 

elsewhere), then those changes in expenditures will be introduced to IMBUILD as perturbations 

on the existing economic flows. The net national impact on jobs by sector will be estimated. 

For example, energy efficiency standards could reduce commercial and industrial energy 

expenditures and increase retail prices. In the short term, this may reduce jobs in lighting 

equipment manufacturing and energy supply, while increasing expenditures on other consumer 

items, causing job creation in other sectors, especially over the longer term. 

Deliverables 

All methods and documentation will be available for review by interested parties and·the 

public. The primary deliverable from the analysis will be national estimates of net job creation or 

elimination by sector. . A research report will be written describing the data sources, methods and 

results. 

2