Exhibit A

Overview of Fiscal Plan Model

Case:17-03283-LTS Doc#:350-1 Filed:06/15/17 Entered:06/15/17 18:31:11 Desc:

Exhibit A - Overview of Fiscal Plan Model Page 1 of 4
2

The Fiscal Plan Model is an Excel file that summarizes the projected financial and operating 

performance of the Government of Puerto Rico from FY 2017 (July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017) 

through FY 2026 (July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026). The Fiscal Plan Model incorporates projected 

revenue to be generated and expenses to be incurred by the Central Government as well as 

Component Units (“CUs”) that are covered by the certified March 13, 2017 Fiscal Plan. 

Additionally, the Fiscal Plan Model accounts for the revenue and expense measures that the 

Central Government will implement as early as FY 2018. Taking into account the projected 

revenue, expenses, and measures, the Fiscal Plan Model provides an annual projection of cash 

flows that are expected to be available for debt service (principal and interest) from FY 2017 

through FY 2026.

The Fiscal Plan Model was provided to the various creditor groups via the Intralinks Project 

AAFA Dataroom (the “Dataroom”) on April 5, 2017. A “live” version of the Fiscal Plan Model, 

which includes formulas and links between tabs of the file, was provided to the various creditor 

groups via the Dataroom on June 6, 2017.

The following is an overview of each of the 10 tabs of the Fiscal Plan Model, how they relate to 

each other, and what relevant sources and documents have been made available to the various 

creditor groups via the Dataroom.

“Sum” tab

The Sum tab is linked to the remaining tabs of the Fiscal Plan model, discussed below, and 

summarizes the detailed financial projections included in those tabs. The first section of the tab 

exhibits the projected revenue from the General Fund (i.e. Individual Income Taxes, Corporate 

Income Taxes, Non-Resident Withholdings, Taxes on Alcoholic Beverages and Cigarettes, 

General Fund portion of SUT), as well as other sources such Additional SUT, Other Tax 

Revenues, Other Non-Tax Revenues, Federal Transfers, and the Impact of Loss of Affordable 

Care Act (“ACA”) Funding. These items provide the projected Revenues Before Measures.

The second section of the tab exhibits projected expenses. General Fund Expenses include Direct 

Payroll, Direct Operational Expenses, Utilities, and Special Appropriations. Other Expenses 

include Paygo Contributions, Run-Rate Capital Expenditures, Net Deficits of Special Revenue 

Funds, Component Units, HTA Operational Expenses, Disbursements to Entities Outside of the 

Fiscal Plan, Federal Programs, the Reconciliation Adjustment, and Non-Recurring Expenses. 

These items provide the projected Expenses Before Measures.

By subtracting the total annual Expenses Before Measures from the total annual Revenues 

Before Measures, The Sum tab presents the annual projection of Cash Flows Pre-Measures. The 

third section of the Sum tab summarizes the Net Impact of Measures, which is the sum of the 

savings projected from the implementation of revenue and expense measures, Adding the total 

annual Net Impact of Measures to the annual Cash Flows Pre-Measures provides the annual Cash 

Flows Post-Measures, Before Debt Service.

“Rev. build” tab

Case:17-03283-LTS Doc#:350-1 Filed:06/15/17 Entered:06/15/17 18:31:11 Desc:

Exhibit A - Overview of Fiscal Plan Model Page 2 of 4
3

The Rev. build tab provides the more detailed financial projections that serve as the basis for the 

annual Revenues Before Measures in the Sum tab. The tab includes projected revenue related to 

the General Fund and other sources, as described in the “Sum” tab section above. In general, 

revenue was projected through FY 2017 or FY 2018, with revenue in the remaining years 

growing based on the Puerto Rico nominal GNP growth factor. The sources of the FY 2017 and 

FY 2018 projections and the Puerto Rico nominal GNP growth factor are explicitly referenced in 

the Rev. build tab and are available in the Dataroom. Certain revenue line items are linked to 

other tabs in the Fiscal Plan model and will be discussed in the sections that follow (i.e. Cigarette 

Tax revenue and Excise on Off-Shore Shipments of Rum are linked to the “Cig & Rum” tab).

“Exp. build” tab

The Exp. build tab provides the more detailed financial projections that serve as the basis for the 

annual Expenses Before Measures in the Sum tab. The tab includes projected expenses related to 

the General Fund and other areas of the Government, as described in the Sum tab section above. 

The expenses related to certain line items were projected for FY 2017, with expenses in the 

remaining years growing based on projected inflation for Puerto Rico. Other line items, such as 

those related to CUs, were explicitly forecasted over the projection period. The sources of the FY 

2017 projections and the projected inflation for Puerto Rico are explicitly referenced in the Exp. 

build tab and are available in the Dataroom. Certain expense line items are linked to other tabs in 

the Fiscal Plan model and will be discussed in the sections that follow (i.e. Paygo Retirement 

System Appropriations are linked to the “Retire” tab).

“Measures” tab

The Measures tab provides the more detailed projections of the annual savings from Revenue 

Measures and Expense Measures summarized in the Sum tab. The Revenue Measures include 

enhancements from Stabilizing Corporate Tax Revenue, Improved Tax Compliance, Right-Rate 

Fees, and Additional Revenue Enhancements. In general, Revenue Measures were projected 

through FY 2019 or FY 2020, with the revenue enhancements in the remaining years growing 

based on the Puerto Rico nominal GNP growth factor. The Expense Measures include savings 

from Right-Sizing the Puerto Rico Government, Reducing Healthcare Spending, Pension System 

Reform, Rehabilitation of Trade Terms With Local Suppliers, and Payroll and Operational 

Expense Freeze Through FY 2019. The sources of the projections and the macroeconomic 

assumptions related to growth are explicitly referenced in the Measures tab and are available in 

the Dataroom.

“SUT” tab

The SUT tab provides the detailed projections of the annual SUT revenue and the distribution to 

the General Fund, COFINA, Municipal Administration Fund (FAM), and the Corporation for the 

Development of the Arts, Science and Film Industry of Puerto Rico (CINE). Certain line items in 

the SUT tab flow into the Sum and Exp. build tabs. The source of the projections is explicitly 

referenced in the SUT tab and is available in the Dataroom.

“Retire” tab

The Retire tab provides the detailed projections of the annual pension paygo contributions by the 

Government of Puerto Rico for the Employees’ Retirement System (“ERS”), the Teachers’ 

Case:17-03283-LTS Doc#:350-1 Filed:06/15/17 Entered:06/15/17 18:31:11 Desc:

Exhibit A - Overview of Fiscal Plan Model Page 3 of 4
4

Retirement System (“TRS”), and the Judiciary Retirement System (“JRS”). Certain line items in 

the Retire tab flow into the Exp. build tab. The source of the projections is explicitly referenced 

in the Retire tab and is available in the Dataroom.

“Cig & Rum” tab

The Cig and Rum tab provides the detailed projections of the annual revenue associated with 

Cigarette Taxes and Excise Taxes on Off-Shore Shipments of Rum. The projections are 

distinguished between revenues that will be directed to the General Fund and revenues that will 

be directed elsewhere. Certain line items in the Cig & Rum tab flow into the Rev. build and Exp. 

build tabs. The source of the projections is explicitly referenced in the Cig & Rum tab and is 

available in the Dataroom. A document named “Additional Appendix Pages” provides further 

detail regarding assumptions and methodology and is also available in the Dataroom.

“ASES” tab

The ASES tab provides the detailed projections of the sources of funding and disbursements 

related to ASES (Health Insurance Administration). The projections estimate a surplus in FY 

2018 and FY 2019 and a deficit in all other years, inclusive of the forecasted receipt of ACA 

funding from the Federal Government. Certain line items in the ASES tab flow into the Rev. 

build and Exp. build tabs. The source of the projections is explicitly referenced in the ASES tab 

and is available in the Dataroom. A document named “Additional Appendix Pages” provides 

further detail regarding assumptions and methodology and is also available in the Dataroom.

“UPR” tab

The UPR tab provides the detailed projections of the sources of revenue and expenses related to 

the University of Puerto Rico. Sources of revenue include Tuition Charges, State Grants, Federal 

Transfers, Appropriations, Federal Pell Grants, and Slot Machine Revenue. Expenses include 

Operating Disbursements (net of General Fund Appropriations and Federal Transfers). Certain 

line items in the UPR tab flow into the Rev. build and Exp. build tabs. The sources of the 

projections are explicitly referenced in the Cig & Rum tab and are available in the Dataroom. A 

document named “Additional Appendix Pages” provides further detail regarding assumptions 

and methodology and is also available in the Dataroom.

“HTA” tab

The HTA tab provides the detailed projections of the sources of revenue and expenses related to 

the Highway & Transportation Authority of Puerto Rico. Sources of revenue include Gasoline 

and Diesel Taxes, Toll Receipts, Vehicle License Fees, Petroleum Taxes, Tren Urbano Receipts, 

and others. Expenses include Salaries and Benefits, Pension and Early Retirement Benefits, 

Repairs & Maintenance, Utilities, and others. Certain line items in the HTA tab flow into the 

Rev. build tab. 

Case:17-03283-LTS Doc#:350-1 Filed:06/15/17 Entered:06/15/17 18:31:11 Desc:

Exhibit A - Overview of Fiscal Plan Model Page 4 of 4