Appendix C ‐ Macon PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan



## Emissions inventory develo pment for the Macon area

Emissions inventories for the Macon area were developed fo r attainment year 2007 and future years 2017 and 2023. Direct PM2.5 emissions and PM2.5 precursor emissions (SO 2 and NO

x ), as defined in the Clean Air Fine Particle Implementation Rule (72 FR 20586), were included in the i nventories. The majority of the 2007 attainment year emissions inventory was prepared as part of SESARM’s c ontracted Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) project. The majority of the projected emissions inventories was prepared by Georgia EPD. The attainment year and future year emissions were prepared for four source categories using different methods. The four source categories are:

 Point sources (EGU and Non-EGU )

 Nonpoint sources (including fire)

 Nonroad mobile sources (including marine, aircraft and railroad)

 Onroad mobile sources

The Macon PM2.5 nonattainment area includes Bibb County and part of Monroe County. All point sources located in Bibb County and the partial Monroe nonattainment area ar e included in the emission inventories for the Macon nonattainment area. Emissions from area, fires, nonroad and on road mobile source are calculated first for the whole counties, as documented below. Then, the emissions in M onroe County were multiplied by the human population fraction in the nonattainment part of Monroe County to get the emissions in Monroe’s partial nonattainment area.



## 1.0 Base Year Point Sources

Emissions estimates for point sources in 2007 were obt ained from SEMAP point source inventory v1.8. This inventory includes emissions estimates for 74 very large sources in 2007, 109 additiona l facilities in 2008, and 66 additional facilities in 2005, which were all submitted to EPA by the state of Georgia. This inventory also includes 19
facilities in CAMD database which were not included in th e state submittal. For facilities with 2005 and 2008 emissions (but no 2007 emissions), 2007 emissions were estimated b ased on a linear interpolation between facility level 2005 and 2008 emissions on a pollutant-by-pollutant basis to calculate facility level 2007 emissions. For facilities with only 2008 data (no 2007 or 2005 data available), the SIC growth f actors from the VISTAS Best&Final inventory were used to backcast 2008 reported emissions to 2007. For facilities with only 2005 data (no 2007 or 2008 data available), the SIC growth factors from the VISTAS Best&Final inventory were used to project 2005 reported emissions to 2007. After the above backcasting and projecting was perfo rmed, additional adjustments were made for facilities where only 2005 data were available and the facility did not operate in 2007 or operat ed for only part of 2007. Facilities that did not operate in
2007 were removed from the NIF files. For facilities that operated for part of 2007, the 2005 emissions were approximated for 2007 by multiply the 2005 emissions by a scali ng factor of the number of days the facility operated in 2007 divided 365 days of full year operation. Also, the end da te in the NIF EM and PE tables were changed to reflect the actual date that the facility ceased operation. In addition, PM augmentation was performed to generate missing emissions estimates for filterable and primary PM2.5, filte rable and primary PM10, and condensable PM.

The SEMAP inventory went through review using EPA’s Basi c Format and Content Checker tool (EPA 2004); which was used to verify the data was in the co rrect format, to check for referential inte grity and duplicate record issues, and to check certain fields for proper valid codes and ranges. This inventory also went through several rounds of quality assurance (QA) reviews by State and local (S/L) agencies, as well as a review by SEMAP stakeholders. For more information regarding the SEMAP point i nventory, please refer to Appendix C-1.



## 1.1 EGU Point Sources

Emissions estimates for EGU point sources in 2007 were obtained from SEMAP point source inventory v1.8. The only EGU point source in Macon PM2.5 nonattainment area is Plant Scherer (Units SG01 – SG04). Georgia PowerAppendix C ‐ Macon PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan

provided updated PM and NH 3 emissions data for all Georgia Power fac ilities. The revised PM emission values include condensable emissions which were previ ously missing from the inventory.

Emissions in 2017 and 2023 were estimated using growth fact ors and control factors. Growth factors were calculated based on coal consumption for the Southeastern region in AEO2010. The SO 2 control factor due to Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) was assumed to be 95% according to VISTAS 2012 Projection Emissions Inventory. The NO

x control factor due to Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) was assumed to be 82. 5% according to VISTAS 2012 Projection Emissions Inventory. The PM2.5 control factor due to FGD was assumed to be 50% according to Table 5.4-1 on page 5.4-24 of the EPA document "Stationary Source C ontrol Techniques Document for Fine Particulate Matter" (EC/R Incorporated, 1998). Table 1 contains control dates fo r Plant Scherer. Tables 2, 3, and 4 contain a list of unitspecific SO 2 , NO

x , and PM emissions for 2007 , 2017, and 2023 and the associated gr owth and control factors for Plant
Scherer.



### Table 1. EGU Control Dates for Plant Scherer (AIRS 11500003)

UnitID NO

x Control SO 2 Control Other Controls

Actual Operation Required Operation rule (sss) Actual Operation Required Operation rule (sss) SG01 NO 12/31/14* NO 12/31/14 Electrostatic precipitator (ESP) Sorbent Injection and Baghouse (12/31/09) SG02 NO 12/31/13* NO 12/31/13 Electrostatic precipitator (ESP) Sorbent Injection and Baghouse (6/1/09) SG03 NO 7/1/11* NO 12/31/11 Electrostatic precipitator (ESP) Sorbent Injection and Baghouse (6/1/09) SG04 NO 12/31/12* NO 12/31/12 Electrostatic precipitator (ESP) Sorbent Injection and Baghouse (4/30/10) * SCR operation is required only during months of May through September NO = not operating as of December 2010



### Table 2. SO 2 

### emissions projection calculations for EGU point sources

POINTID 2007
Emissions

(tons) 2017 2023
Growth Factor Control Factor Emissions (tons) Growth Factor Control Factor Emissions (tons)
SG01 18450.800 1.013 95% 934.894 1.050 95% 968.232
SG02 18446.400 1.013 95% 934.671 1.050 95% 968.001
SG03 20149.700 1.013 95% 1020.976 1.050 95% 1057.384
SG04 19409.400 1.013 95% 983.465 1.050 95% 1018.535



### Table 3. NO

x 

### emissions projection calculations for EGU point sources

POINTID Emissions Fractions in May

through Sep* 2007
Emissions

(tons) 2017 2023
Growth

Factor Control

Factor Emissions (tons) Growth

Factor Control

Factor Emissions (tons)
SG01 43% 5032.500 1.013 82.5% 3286.143 1.050 82.5% 3403.326
SG02 42% 4653.480 1.013 82.5% 3099.703 1.050 82.5% 3210.238
SG03 43% 4473.180 1.013 82.5% 2916.451 1.050 82.5% 3020.451
SG04 41% 4689.480 1.013 82.5% 3145.361 1.050 82.5% 3257.523

* These controls will only operate during the period fro m May through September. Th erefore, the fraction of NO

x emissions during
the ozone season in 2007 was calculated us ing CEM data, and the control factors due to SCR operations were only applied to emissions during the ozone season.Appendix C ‐ Macon PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan



### Table 4. PM 2.5 

### emissions projection calculations for EGU point sources

POINTID 2007
Emissions

(tons) 2017 2023
Growth Factor Control Factor Emissions (tons) Growth Factor Control Factor Emissions (tons)
SG01 238.033 1.013 50.0% 120.610 1.050 50.0% 124.911
SG02 346.458 1.013 50.0% 175.549 1.050 50.0% 181.809
SG03 297.269 1.013 50.0% 150.625 1.050 50.0% 155.996
SG04 284.100 1.013 50.0% 143.952 1.050 50.0% 149.085



## 1.2 Non

‐ EGU Point Sources

Emissions estimates for non-EGU point sources in 2007 we re obtained from SEMAP point source inventory v1.8, as described in the section for base year point sources. Emissions in future years 2017 and 2023 were estimated using SCCand county-specific growth factors generated with the USEPA ’s Economic Growth Analysis System version 5.0 (EGAS 5.0). Appendix C-7 contains a summary of the SCC-specific growth factors for Macon nonattainment area. Tables 5, 6, and 7 contain a list of specific non-EGU point sources in Macon nonattainment area and facility-specific SO 2 , NO

x , and PM emissions for 2007, 2017, and 2023. These emissions are not subject to additional controls in the future years 2017
and 2023.



### Table 5. SO 2 

### emissions projection for non-EGU point sources, tons

County FIPs PLANT ID FACILITY NAME 2007 2017 2023 Bibb 13021 02100001 Graphic Packaging International 242.872 251.113 263.064 Bibb 13021 02100021 Southern Natural Gas Co., Ocmulgee 0.078 0.087 0.095 Bibb 13021 02100030 Armstrong World Industries Inc 0.000 0.000 0.000 Bibb 13021 02100167 Cherokee Brick & Tile Company 203.968 254.132 287.631Appendix C ‐ Macon PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan



### Table 6. NO

x 

### emissions projection for non-EGU point sources, tons

County FIPs PLANT ID FACILITY NAME 2007 2017 2023 Bibb 13021 02100001 Graphic Packaging International 1259.400 1372.247 1493.333 Bibb 13021 02100021 Southern Natural Gas Co., Ocmulgee 366.856 408.797 445.414 Bibb 13021 02100030 Armstrong World Industries Inc 54.662 63.088 70.713 Bibb 13021 02100167 Cherokee Brick & Tile Company 56.224 70.052 79.286



### Table 7. PM 2.5 

### emissions projection , tons

County FIPs PLANT ID FACILITY NAME 2007 2017 2023 Bibb 13021 02100001 Graphic Packaging International 271.746 312.683 343.302 Bibb 13021 02100021 Southern Natural Gas Co., Ocmulgee 9.938 11.074 12.066 Bibb 13021 02100030 Armstrong World Industries Inc 46.847 67.042 80.123 Bibb 13021 02100167 Cherokee Brick & Tile Company 44.395 55.314 62.605



## 2.0 Area Sources

Emissions from area sources in 2007 were obtained from th e SEMAP area source inventory v1.1 which was developed by Pechan. Pechan created a default 2007 area source inventory that includes all of the source categories covered by the 2008 nonpoint source NEI. For all source categories except industrial and commercial/institutional (ICI) fuel combustion, Pechan either directly incorporated emissions data from the 2008 nonpoint source NEI (when the NEI represented use of 2007 emissions activity data), or recalculated the NEI emis sion estimates to reflect 2007 ac tivity levels (when the NEI reflected 2006 or 2008 activity levels) and/ or to remove emissions associated with activity reflected in the point source inventory. For ICI fuel combustion, the 2008 nonpoint source NEI only developed emissions activity estimates, not emission estimates. Because of the potential importance of these source categories and the availability of methodological improvements, Pechan utilized an emissions estimation method for ICI fuel combustion incorporates a few refinements to the NEI method. These emissions were supplemented w ith carry-forward categories from 2005 GA CERR submission grown using EGAS. For more information regarding th e SEMAP area inventory, please refer to Appendix C-2.

Emissions in future years 2017 and 2023 were estimated using SCC- and county-specific growth factors generated with the USEPA’s Economic Growth Analysis System versi on 5.0 (EGAS 5.0). Appendix C-7 contains a summary of the SCC-specific growth factors for Macon nonattainment area. Th ese emissions are not subject to additional controls in the future years 2017 and 2023.

Emissions from fires in 2007 were obtained from the SEMAP fi nal “actual” fire emissions inventory. This inventory was developed using 2007 burned area da ta submitted by states, as well as updated fuel consumption and emissions factors (Appendix C-8). Emissions in future years 2017 an d 2023 were assumed to be the same as base year 2007.Appendix C ‐ Macon PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan



## 3.0 Nonroad Mobile Sources

The nonroad sector is comprised of nonroad engines included in EPA’s NONROAD model, such as recreational marine and land-based vehicles, farm, cons truction and industrial machinery, and la wn and garden equipment. This sector also includes engines not modeled in NONROAD, specifically aircraft, commercial marine vessels, and locomotives.



## 3.1 Nonroad Mobile Sources

– NONROAD Model Category

Emissions from NONROAD model source categories in 20 07 were obtained from the SEMAP final nonroad mobile sources emissions inventory. These emi ssions were calculated using NMIM2008, which incorporates EPA’s latest NONROAD model (NONROAD2008) rel eased in April 2009, and reflects all of EPA’s final nonroad standards to date. The county/monthly gasoline profile assignments in the C ountyYearMonth table and the gasoline fuel profiles in the Gasoline table of the 2007 NMIM county-level database (NCD) were updated with data provided by the State of Georgia. For more information regarding the SEMAP nonroa d inventory, please refer to Appendix C-2.

Emissions in future years 2017 and 2023 were also ca lculated using NMIM2008, using the same meteorological inputs as for 2007. Defaults in NMIM 2008 were used for other inputs in future years.



## 3.1 Nonroad Mobile Sources

– Marine, Aircraft, and Locomotives

Emissions from commercial marine vessels (CMV), ai rcraft, and locomotives in 2007 were obtained from the SEMAP final nonroad mobile sources emissions inventory. Fo r more information regarding the SEMAP marine, aircraft, and locomotive inventory, please refer to Appendix C-2. Growth a nd control factors that were used to develop future year emissions were provided by Pechan. For more information regarding the SEMAP marine, aircraft, and locomotive growth and control factors, please refer to Appendix C-5.

2007 CMV emissions in the SEMAP inventory were based larg ely on EPA’s 2008 NEI, and then were adjusted to represent 2007. Growth factors for residual CMVs were de veloped using average annual growth rates in USEPA regulatory impact analysis (RIA) to s upport their category 3 engine rulemaking. Growth factors for diesel engine CMV emissions were based on fuel consumption forecasts published by EIA. Control factors were developed using information
from USEPA’s RIA. There were no CMV emis sions in the Macon nonattainment area.

2007 aircraft emissions in the SEMAP inventory were prim arily based on EPA’s 2008 NEI, which were back-cast to 2007 using approach operations by airport and aircraft type compiled from the FAA’s Air Traffic Activity Data System (ATADS) (FAA, 2010). Growth factors for all aircraft engine and airport-related SCCs we re based on landing and takeoff operation (LTO) projections available from the Federal Aviation Administration’s Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) (FAA, 2010). Growth rates for military aircraft were held constant at 200 7 levels. No control factors have been applied to aircraft for criteria pollutant forecasts. Appendix C-5 c ontains a list of specific aircraft sources in the Macon nonattainment area and SCC-specific SO 2 , NO

x , and PM 2.5 emissions for 2007, 2017, and 2023 and the associated growth
factors.

2007 locomotive emissions in the SEMAP inventory were obtained from the Eastern Regional Technical Advisory
Committee for Class I and Class II/III line haul locomotives a nd railyards. Passenger and commuter rail line emissions were grown from EPA’s 2002 NEI to 2007. For Class I and Class II/III line haul and diesel switchyard operations, Pechan calculated growth factors based on freight rail sector fuel consumption forecasts. For passenger and commuter rail, growth factors were developed fro m national forecasts of intercity rail diesel consumption, and commuter rail diesel consumption. Control factors were based on US EPA’s loco motive engine RIA and associated emission factor guidance. Tables 11, 12, and 13 contain a list of specific locomotive sources in the Macon nonattainment area and SCC-specific SO 2 , NO

x , and PM 2.5 emissions for 2007, 2017, and 2023 and the associated growth and control factors.Appendix C ‐ Macon PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan



### Table 11. SO 2 

### emissions projection for Locomotives

SCC Description 2007
Emissions

(tons) 2017 2023
Growth

Factor Control

Factor Emissions (tons) Growth

Factor Control

Factor Emissions (tons)
Bibb 13021 2285002006 Class I 4.20 1.02 95.80% 0.18 1.08 95.87% 0.19
Bibb 13021 2285002007 Class II/III 0.28 1.02 95.80% 0.01 1.08 95.87% 0.01
Bibb 13021 2285002010 Yard 2.89 1.02 95.80% 0.12 1.08 95.87% 0.13
Monroe 13207 2285002006 Class I 3.00 1.02 95.80% 0.13 1.08 95.87% 0.13
Monroe 13207 2285002007 Class II/III 0.18 1.02 95.80% 0.01 1.08 95.87% 0.01



### Table 12. NO

x 

### emissions projection for Locomotives

SCC Description 2007
Emissions

(tons) 2017 2023
Growth

Factor Control

Factor Emissions (tons) Growth

Factor Control

Factor Emissions (tons)
Bibb 13021 2285002006 Class I 368.85 1.02 34.86% 244.02 1.08 52.00% 190.46
Bibb 13021 2285002007 Class II/III 40.66 1.02 2.07% 40.44 1.08 7.85% 40.30
Bibb 13021 2285002010 Yard 327.56 1.02 17.27% 275.21 1.08 30.92% 243.40
Monroe 13207 2285002006 Class I 263.14 1.02 34.86% 174.09 1.08 52.00% 135.87
Monroe 13207 2285002007 Class II/III 26.19 1.02 2.07% 26.05 1.08 7.85% 25.96



### Table 13. PM 2.5 

### emissions projection for Locomotives

SCC Description 2007
Emissions

(tons) 2017 2023
Growth

Factor Control

Factor Emissions (tons) Growth

Factor Control

Factor Emissions (tons)
Bibb 13021 2285002006 Class I 12.92 1.02 53.97 6.04 1.08 69.84 4.19
Bibb 13021 2285002007 Class II/III 0.92 1.02 16.92 0.78 1.08 20.00 0.79
Bibb 13021 2285002010 Yard 9.98 1.02 30.77 7.01 1.08 43.08 6.11
Monroe 13207 2285002006 Class I 9.21 1.02 53.97 4.31 1.08 69.84 2.99
Monroe 13207 2285002007 Class II/III 0.59 1.02 16.92 0.50 1.08 20.00 0.51



## 4.0 Mobile – Onroad

SO 2 , NO

x , and PM 2.5 emissions from onroad mobile sources in 2007 a nd 2023 were developed by Georgia Department of Transportation contractor using MOVES2010a. MOVES was r un at county level for Bibb in inventory mode for a July day in Year 2007 and 2023. Average 2007 annual daily meteorol ogical inputs were used in both runs. Best available local data were used for MOVES inputs such as vehicle populatio n, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by source types, road type distribution, speed distributions, ramp frac tions, hourly VMT fractions and age distribution.
SO 2 , NO

x , and PM 2.5 emissions from onroad mobile sources in the nonattainment part of Monroe County were calculated using a combined method. For running emissions , MOVES was run in rate mode. The emission rate outputs were combined with activity data derived using Georgia DOT hi storical traffic counts to calculate running emissions. For non-running emissions, MOVES was run in inventory mode, a nd the emissions in the nonattainment part of Monroe County were calculated using the percent of the human populatio n in the nonattainment area. Local data such as vehicle population, VMT, and age distribution were used, and MOVES defaults were used for other MOVES inputs. Please refer to Appendix C-3 for more detailed information.Appendix C ‐ Macon PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan



## 5.0 Partial County Fractions

The partial county fraction was calculated as the ratio of human population in the nonattainment part to the total population of Monroe County. The human population in the n onattainment part of Monroe County was estimated as the total of human population in census blocks whose geographical centroids fall inside of the nonattainment area boundary. According to 2010 Census data, the human population in the n onattainment part of Monroe County is 241, and the total population in Monroe County is 26,424. Therefore, the partial county fraction is 241/26424 = 0.91%.



## 6.0 QA/QC

Detailed QA/QC efforts for point and fire sources were documented in the MACTEC 2009 Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP, MACTEC, 2009), and QA/QC efforts for nonroad an d area sources can be found in E.H. Pechan’s 2009 QAPP. Onroad mobile source emissions were provided by a Georgia Department of Transportation contractor, and were verified by running MOVES independently at Georgia EPD . All MOVES input files have been carefully checked.



## References

MACTEC, 2009. Quality Assurance Project Plan for Point S ource, On-Road, and Fire Base Year, Future Year, and Control Strategy Emissions Inventories.

MACTEC, 2011, Development of the Point Source Emission I nventory for 2007 in the SESARM Region (Version 1.8)

E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. 2009. Quality Assurance Project Plan for Non-Road and Area Source Base Year and
Future Year Emissions Inventories.

EC/R Incorporated, 1998, Stationary Source Control Techni ques Document for Fine Particulate Matter, obtained from http://www.epa.gov/ttncatc1/dir1/fine pmtech.pdf , accessed on 1/19/2011.

E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. 2010. Area and Nonroad 2007 Base Year Inventories Final Report.

E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. 2011. Growth and Control F actor Development for Aircraft, Commercial Marine Vessels,
and Locomotives

EPA, 2010. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EGAS Version 5.0, available for download from http://www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/eg as5.htm, accessed March 2010.