Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

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AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 FileInfo 1
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

United States Department of Energy

2/5/2013

Not modified.

Contains emissions data used in the Social Cost of Carbon analysis for Manufacturers.

Contents

Contains Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source, United States, 

Reference case from the EIA's National Energy Modeling system.

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 FileInfo 2
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

Sector and Source 2010 2011 2012 2013

 Residential

 Petroleum 84.773338 77.953323 75.312363 81.059563

 Natural Gas 267.373322 256.116669 238.431076 261.443054

 Coal 0.696667 0.586667 0.603079 0.685814

 Electricity 1/ 874.689941 827.675354 768.105652 763.806641

 Total Residential 1227.533203 1162.332031 1082.452148 1106.995117

 Commercial

 Petroleum 51.406666 48.84 43.770851 42.942898

 Natural Gas 172.553345 171.08667 160.395096 177.325516

 Coal 5.5 4.84 4.886005 4.89549

 Electricity 1/ 804.803711 766.974731 737.314636 735.685669

 Total Commercial 1034.263672 991.741394 946.366577 960.849609

 Industrial 2/

 Petroleum 344.116638 344.996704 366.082733 339.698151

 Natural Gas 3/ 408.063354 416.789978 435.266907 433.974121

 Coal 156.566666 143.183319 164.648773 154.081268

 Electricity 1/ 587.397766 567.112122 550.509705 556.341064

 Total Industrial 1496.144409 1472.082031 1516.508057 1484.094604

 Transportation

 Petroleum 4/ 1835.716797 1801.873291 1771.711792 1771.122925

 Natural Gas 5/ 36.080002 38.939999 40.280594 41.142605

 Electricity 1/ 3.875447 3.770954 3.654794 3.74762

 Total Transportation 1875.672241 1844.584229 1815.647217 1816.013184

 Electric Power 6/

 Petroleum 32.670002 25.41 15.878479 15.732221

 Natural Gas 398.823334 410.666687 501.977234 444.891327

 Coal 1827.613403 1718.016602 1530.289062 1587.517456

 Other 7/ 11.660001 11.44 11.44 11.44

 Total Electric Power 2270.766602 2165.533203 2059.584717 2059.581055

 Total by Fuel

 Petroleum 3/ 2348.68335 2299.073242 2272.756104 2250.555664

 Natural Gas 1282.893311 1293.599976 1376.35083 1358.776611

 Coal 1990.376709 1866.626587 1700.42688 1747.180054

 Other 7/ 11.660001 11.44 11.44 11.44

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source, United States, Reference case

(million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent, unless otherwise noted)

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 1
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

 Total 5633.613281 5470.739746 5360.973633 5367.952148

 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (tons carbon diox

ide

 equivalent per person) 18.16918 17.513317 17.002178 16.860239

Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011

are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.

 Sources: 2010 emissions: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2011/10)

(Washington, DC, October 2011). 2011 emissions and emission factors: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2012/0

(Washington, DC, August 2012). Projections: EIA, AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System run ref2013.d102312a.

from biogenic energy sources as an indication of the potential net release of carbon dioxide in the absence of offsetting sequ

 4/ This includes carbon dioxide from international bunker fuels, both civilian and military, which are excluded from the

accounting of carbon dioxide emissions under the United Nations convention. From 1990 through 2011,

international bunker fuels accounted for 90 to 126 million metric tons annually.

 5/ Includes pipeline fuel natural gas and natural gas used as vehicle fuel.

 6/ Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status.

 7/ Includes emissions from geothermal power and nonbiogenic emissions from municipal waste.

 - - = Not applicable.

 Note: By convention, the direct emissions from biogenic energy sources are excluded from energy-related CO2 emissions. 

of carbon from these sources is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in z

emissions over some period of time. If, however, increased use of biomass energy results in a decline in terrestrial

carbon stocks, a net positive release of carbon may occur. See "Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End Use" for th

 3/ Includes lease and plant fuel.

 1/ Emissions from the electric power sector are distributed to the end-use sectors.

 2/ Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems.

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 2
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

77.633942 76.544876 75.387749 74.149422 72.940605 71.834923 70.841835

253.411652 252.514313 251.10289 249.37709 247.505463 246.209991 245.349579

0.649213 0.641322 0.633453 0.62564 0.617837 0.610129 0.602457

757.295227 741.940491 714.781738 720.033691 728.03717 740.391663 743.932373

1088.98999 1071.640991 1041.905762 1044.185791 1049.101074 1059.046753 1060.726196

45.412987 47.384155 47.431736 47.162651 46.916893 46.760933 46.575726

176.679214 180.262497 180.622009 180.394196 179.916641 180.004974 180.182098

4.909334 4.914456 4.912185 4.910788 4.906179 4.904593 4.902492

733.537109 718.924622 693.909607 698.962952 706.158691 717.349121 725.371521

960.538635 951.485718 926.875549 931.430603 937.898376 949.019592 957.03186

341.407349 349.381897 353.089478 354.61969 355.380524 355.526245 354.626984

432.793243 446.787292 459.961578 470.909515 481.808807 486.98703 490.599121

154.490982 155.764709 154.363327 152.641479 153.271637 153.650909 153.528549

561.802429 574.301086 564.08551 578.310669 587.873108 600.304993 607.059265

1490.493896 1526.234985 1531.499878 1556.481323 1578.333984 1596.469238 1605.813965

1777.44812 1787.797241 1791.41272 1793.258789 1792.920776 1790.43689 1784.512085

40.164772 39.819798 40.833282 40.925625 41.224857 41.544369 41.828861

3.840523 3.909989 3.922408 4.091106 4.292878 4.458723 4.6496

1821.453491 1831.5271 1836.168335 1838.275513 1838.438477 1836.439941 1830.990601

15.813957 15.847888 15.139841 13.183655 13.351867 13.256824 13.368174

439.124207 437.760864 474.451447 456.800598 449.484283 447.909515 445.895599

1590.097168 1574.027222 1475.667969 1519.973999 1552.085693 1589.897949 1610.308716

11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44

2056.475342 2039.075928 1976.699219 2001.398193 2026.361816 2062.50415 2081.012451

2257.716309 2276.956055 2282.46167 2282.374023 2281.510498 2277.815918 2269.924805

1342.173096 1357.144775 1406.971191 1398.406982 1399.940063 1402.655884 1403.855225

1750.146729 1735.347656 1635.576904 1678.151855 1710.881348 1749.063599 1769.342163

11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44

ates, Reference case

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 3
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

5361.476074 5380.888184 5336.449707 5370.372559 5403.771973 5440.975098 5454.562012

16.677734 16.577261 16.282839 16.229958 16.17576 16.133232 16.021622

view, DOE/EIA-0035(2011/10)

Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2012/08)

m run ref2013.d102312a.

n the absence of offsetting sequestration.

hich are excluded from the

nergy-related CO2 emissions. The release

edstock is grown, resulting in zero net

 decline in terrestrial

de Emissions by End Use" for the emissions

n-site generating systems.

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 4
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

69.869064 68.912582 67.981705 67.086899 66.2202 65.386131 64.600441

244.500809 243.474091 242.384125 241.462479 240.758057 240.013794 239.266312

0.59486 0.587292 0.57976 0.572358 0.564954 0.557623 0.550375

745.703674 755.404907 762.918457 769.925354 776.408203 784.107605 792.411621

1060.668457 1068.378906 1073.864014 1079.047119 1083.951416 1090.065186 1096.828735

46.432697 46.264717 46.114338 45.971085 45.849655 45.697994 45.559849

180.559967 180.786285 180.945908 181.301468 181.969254 182.600357 183.399353

4.901525 4.899727 4.89766 4.895693 4.894101 4.891734 4.889641

728.828003 738.622314 746.02533 752.858765 759.570679 767.691162 775.604492

960.722168 970.572998 977.983215 985.026978 992.283691 1000.881226 1009.453369

352.698883 352.220001 350.853119 349.998657 348.842957 348.028748 346.187775

493.774414 499.155853 501.957947 504.150574 505.568756 506.729462 507.737366

153.459396 153.515015 159.248444 158.522934 157.31514 156.196625 155.044205

609.288147 618.71814 620.898926 621.199036 618.983093 618.540588 612.613098

1609.220825 1623.609009 1632.958374 1633.871216 1630.709961 1629.495361 1621.58252

1778.093506 1771.303711 1763.35022 1753.314697 1743.640991 1734.164551 1724.229004

42.105671 42.69249 43.207314 44.057556 45.174225 46.465534 47.964684

4.831426 5.051081 5.243396 5.431724 5.669196 5.90557 6.117772

1825.03064 1819.047241 1811.800903 1802.804077 1794.484375 1786.535645 1778.311523

13.444597 13.55045 13.635403 13.719866 13.642199 13.655184 13.623234

445.380157 446.110901 447.444458 453.055115 457.663544 462.474274 469.073273

1618.386353 1646.69519 1662.566162 1671.199829 1677.885498 1688.675415 1692.610474

11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44

2088.651123 2117.796387 2135.085938 2149.414795 2160.631104 2176.244873 2186.746826

2260.538818 2252.251465 2241.934814 2230.091309 2218.195801 2206.932617 2194.200439

1406.321045 1412.219727 1415.939697 1424.027222 1431.133789 1438.283447 1447.440918

1777.342163 1805.697266 1827.291992 1835.190796 1840.659668 1850.321411 1853.094727

11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 5
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

5455.64209 5481.608398 5496.606445 5500.749512 5501.429199 5506.977539 5506.17627

15.875304 15.803292 15.701607 15.571219 15.433476 15.311772 15.174816

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 6
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034

63.851734 63.141865 62.47237 61.836071 61.211761 60.608444 60.030704

238.363495 237.39444 236.384247 235.319794 234.129364 232.898117 231.608109

0.543164 0.536075 0.528991 0.521968 0.514811 0.507699 0.500685

799.282776 807.761841 817.39624 826.95166 835.437256 843.560242 852.908447

1102.041138 1108.834229 1116.78186 1124.629517 1131.293213 1137.574463 1145.047974

45.42025 45.30983 45.178001 45.140465 45.02644 44.943382 44.875156

184.171829 184.989426 185.833359 186.74353 187.755707 188.835587 189.752594

4.887567 4.885375 4.882421 4.880347 4.878278 4.876086 4.873777

781.602844 789.254578 796.212524 803.168396 809.640686 816.091064 823.753784

1016.08252 1024.439209 1032.106323 1039.932739 1047.301147 1054.746094 1063.255371

344.279785 342.946228 342.233582 341.937775 341.300598 340.794647 341.508972

508.115997 508.975677 510.657501 513.104187 515.329956 517.846863 520.206482

153.013596 152.270508 151.721497 151.164322 150.657791 150.185791 149.774094

608.179993 605.244629 603.644592 601.927612 599.180725 596.070496 594.453674

1613.589355 1609.437012 1608.257202 1608.133911 1606.468994 1604.897705 1605.943237

1715.783325 1709.075806 1705.421509 1701.688477 1698.161499 1695.976196 1695.48877

49.574486 51.320972 53.368584 56.696182 60.233616 63.592659 67.666344

6.337289 6.582727 6.856371 7.157942 7.450469 7.755345 8.075783

1771.695068 1766.979492 1765.646362 1765.542603 1765.845581 1767.324219 1771.230957

13.624587 13.681602 13.739056 13.708443 13.758461 13.81307 13.885751

473.753967 476.542358 481.704315 490.628845 497.96698 503.412445 507.347656

1696.584351 1707.179932 1717.22644 1723.428467 1728.543701 1734.811646 1746.518433

11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44

2195.402832 2208.84375 2224.109863 2239.205566 2251.708984 2263.477051 2279.191895

2182.959473 2174.155273 2169.044434 2164.311279 2159.45874 2156.135742 2155.789307

1453.979736 1459.2229 1467.947998 1482.492432 1495.415649 1506.585693 1516.581177

1855.028687 1864.871826 1874.359375 1879.995117 1884.594604 1890.381226 1901.666992

11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 7
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

5503.407715 5509.689941 5522.791504 5538.23877 5550.90918 5564.54248 5585.477539

15.034968 14.922159 14.829672 14.745028 14.654507 14.568006 14.501819

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 8
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

59.477024 58.949368 58.433262 57.945637 57.472286 57.011185

230.286453 228.939316 227.641495 226.382233 225.429947 224.547348

0.493704 0.486787 0.479931 0.473135 0.466426 0.459743

861.724487 869.907715 874.263123 880.403198 883.82489 887.584106

1151.981689 1158.283203 1160.817871 1165.204224 1167.193604 1169.602417

44.743366 44.660645 44.567307 44.5299 44.434731 44.361294

190.516479 191.175476 191.871323 192.636292 193.938492 195.406998

4.870453 4.867707 4.865223 4.862834 4.860266 4.857649

830.885803 837.235046 839.222229 842.652649 842.78186 842.67749

1071.016113 1077.938843 1080.526123 1084.681641 1086.015381 1087.303467

342.376801 343.553772 344.627869 345.856415 346.301392 347.229126

523.179993 525.84314 528.136536 531.109863 534.867737 537.610474

149.653458 150.604584 151.817505 153.048141 154.216934 155.383316

592.233215 589.199036 584.804565 582.285706 578.499451 575.111572

1607.443359 1609.200439 1609.386475 1612.300049 1613.885498 1615.334473

1695.483887 1696.215088 1698.439697 1702.115112 1706.899414 1711.597778

72.367569 76.845474 82.076248 87.267899 92.203934 97.467293

8.392351 8.693116 8.952729 9.240375 9.507208 9.785179

1776.243774 1781.753662 1789.46875 1798.623413 1808.610596 1818.85022

13.959585 14.038989 14.117847 14.19474 14.267473 14.344051

511.331604 513.889526 514.253418 516.769958 517.359924 514.466187

1756.504517 1765.666504 1767.431641 1772.177368 1771.546021 1774.908203

11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44

2293.235596 2305.034912 2307.24292 2314.582031 2314.613281 2315.158447

2156.040527 2157.417969 2160.186035 2164.641846 2169.375488 2174.543457

1527.682129 1536.692871 1543.979004 1554.16626 1563.800049 1569.498291

1911.522095 1921.62561 1924.594238 1930.561523 1931.0896 1935.608887

11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 9
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

5606.68457 5627.17627 5640.199219 5660.80957 5675.705078 5691.090332

14.437316 14.371882 14.288416 14.225137 14.148249 14.0734

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 10
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

Growth Rate (2011-2040)

-1.10%

-0.50%

-0.80%

0.20%

0.00%

-0.30%

0.50%

0.00%

0.30%

0.30%

0.00%

0.90%

0.30%

0.00%

0.30%

-0.20%

3.20%

3.30%

0.00%

-2.00%

0.80%

0.10%

0.00%

0.20%

-0.20%

0.70%

0.10%

0.00%

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 11
Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

0.10%

-0.80%

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 12