*** EO12866 Review – DRAFT 05-29-15 - Do Not Cite, Quote, or Release During Review ***

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES-1

CHAPTER 1: INDUSTRY CHARACTERIZATION

1.1 Introduction 1-1

CHAPTER 2: TECHNOLOGY AND COST

2.1 Overview of Technologies 2-1

2.2 Technology Principles – SI Engines 2-2

2.3 Technology Principles – CI Engines 2-8

2.4 Technology Principles - Vehicles 2-14

2.5 Technology Application and Estimated Costs – HD Pickups and Vans 2-47

2.6 Technology Application – SI Engines 2-63

2.7 Technology Application and Estimated Costs – CI Engines 2-69

2.8 Technology Application and Estimated Costs – Tractors 2-80

2.9 Technology Application and Estimated Costs – Vocational Vehicles 2-109

2.10 Technology Application and Estimated Costs – Trailers 2-148

2.11 Natural Gas 2-177

2.12 Technology Costs 2-178

2.13 Package Costs 2-259

CHAPTER 3: TEST PROCEDURES

3.1 Heavy-Duty Engine Test Procedure 3-1

3.2 Aerodynamic Assessment 3-4

3.3 Tire Rolling Resistance 3-47

3.4 Duty Cycle 3-49

3.5 Tare Weights and Payload 3-55

3.6 Powertrain Test Procedures 3-58

3.7 Hybrid Powertrain Test Procedures 3-63

3.8 Rear Axle Efficiency Test 3-65

3.9 HD Pickup Truck and Van Chassis Test Procedure 3-66
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3.10 Alternative Certification Approach 3-69

CHAPTER 4: VEHICLE SIMULATION MODEL

4.1 Purpose and Scope 4-1

4.2 Model Code Description 4-2

4.3 Validation of Phase 2 GEM Simulations 4-10

4.4 EPA and NHTSA HD Vehicle Compliance Model 4-21

4.5 Technology Improvements that Are Recognized in GEM without Simulation 4-33

CHAPTER 5: IMPACTS ON EMISSIONS AND FUEL CONSUMPTION

5.1 Executive Summary 5-1

5.2 Introduction 5-7

5.3 Program Analysis and Modeling Methods 5-9

5.4 Greenhouse Gas Emission and Fuel Consumption Impacts 5-27

5.5 Non-Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts 5-44

CHAPTER 6: HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

6.1 Health and Environmental Effects of Non-GHG Pollutants 6-1

6.2 Air Quality Impacts of Non-GHG Pollutants 6-32

6.3 Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, Global Mean Temperature, Sea Level 

Rise, and Ocean pH Associated with the Program’s GHG Emissions Reductions 6-40

CHAPTER 7: VEHICLE-RELATED COSTS, FUEL SAVINGS &

MAINTENANCE COSTS

7.1 Vehicle Costs, Fuel Savings and Maintenance Costs vs. the Less Dynamic Baseline and 

using Method B 7-1

7.2 Vehicle Costs, Fuel Savings and Maintenance Costs vs. the Dynamic Baseline and Using 

Method A 7-28

7.3 Key Parameters Used in the Estimation of Costs and Fuel Savings 7-48
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CHAPTER 8. ECONOMIC AND OTHER IMPACTS

8.1 Framework for Benefits and Costs 8-1

8.2 Conceptual Framework for Evaluating Impacts 8-2

8.3 Analysis of the Rebound Effect 8-9

8.4 Impact on Class Shifting, Fleet Turnover, and Sales 8-28

8.5 Monetized GHG Impacts 8-32

8.6 Quantified and Monetized Non-GHG Health and Environmental Impacts 8-45

8.7 Additional Impacts 8-57

8.8 The Effect of Safety Standards and Voluntary Safety Improvements on Vehicle Weight

8-65

8.9 Petroleum, Energy and National Security impact 8-69

8.10 Summary of Benefits and Costs 8-83

8.11 Employment Impacts 8-87

8.12 Oil Price Sensitivity Analysis 8-98

CHAPTER 9. SAFETY IMPACTS

9.1 Summary of Supporting HD Vehicle Safety Research

9.2 National Academy of Sciences HD Phase 1 and Phase 2 Reports

9.3 DOT CAFE Model HD Pickup and Van Safety Analysis 

9.4 Volpe Research on MD/HD Fuel Efficiency Technologies 

9.5 Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Research on Low Rolling Resistance Truck 

Tires

9.6 The Agencies’ Assessment of Potential Safety Impacts

CHAPTER 10: CAFE MODEL

10.1 HD Pickup and Van Fleet 10-1

10.2 CAFE Model Analysis of Regulatory Alternatives for HD Pickups and Vans 10-12

CHAPTER 11: RESULTS OF PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS
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11.1 What Are the Alternatives that the Agencies Considered? 11-1

11.2 How Do These Alternatives Compare in Overall GHG Emissions Reductions and Fuel 

Efficiency and Cost? 11-16

11.3 Detailed Technology Projections for Each Category 11-24

CHAPTER 12: INITIAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS

12.1 Overview of the Regulatory Flexibility Act 12-1

12.2 Need for Rulemaking and Rulemaking Objectives 12-2

12.3 Definition and Description of Small Businesses 12-2

12.4 Summary of Small Entities to which the Rulemaking will Apply 12-3

12.5 Related Federal Rules 12-4

12.6 Projected Reporting, Recordkeeping, and Other Compliance Requirements 12-4

12.7 Regulatory Flexibilities 12-4

12.8 Projected Economic Effects of the Proposed Rulemaking 12-9

CHAPTER 13: NATURAL GAS VEHICLES AND ENGINES

13.1 Detailed Life-Cycle Analysis 13-1

13.2 Projecting Natural Gas use in HD Trucks 13-25

13.3 Natural Gas Emission Control Measures 13-37
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This Page Intentionally Left Blank
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

List of Acronyms

μg Microgram

μm Micrometers

2002$ U.S. Dollars in calendar year 2002

2009$ U.S. Dollars in calendar year 2009

A/C Air Conditioning

ABS Antilock Brake Systems

ABT Averaging, Banking and Trading

AC Alternating Current

ACES Advanced Collaborative Emission Study

ALVW Adjusted Loaded Vehicle Weight

AEO Annual Energy Outlook

AES Automatic Engine Shutdown

AHS American Housing Survey

AMOC Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AMT Automated Manual Transmission

ANL Argonne National Laboratory

APU Auxiliary Power Unit

AQ Air Quality 

AQCD Air Quality Criteria Document

AR4 Fourth Assessment Report

ARB California Air Resources Board 

ASL Aggressive Shift Logic

ASPEN Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide 

AT Automatic Transmissions

ATA American Trucking Association

ATIS Automated Tire Inflation System

ATRI Alliance for Transportation Research Institute

ATSDR Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry

ATUS American Time Use Survey

Avg Average

BAC Battery Air Conditioning

BenMAP Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program

bhp Brake Horsepower

bhp-hrs Brake Horsepower Hours

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics

BSFC Brake Specific Fuel Consumption

BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics

BTS Bureau of Labor Statistics

BTU British Thermal Unit

CAA Clean Air Act
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

CAAA Clean Air Act Amendments

CAD/CAE Computer Aided Design And Engineering

CAE Computer Aided Engineering

CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy

CARB California Air Resources Board 

CBI Confidential Business Information

CCP Coupled Cam Phasing

CCSP Climate Change Science Program

Cd Coefficient of Drag

CDC Centers for Disease Control

CFD Computational Fluid Dynamics

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

CH4 Methane

CILCC Combined International Local and Commuter Cycle

CITT Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology

CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality

CO Carbon Monoxide

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CO2eq CO2 Equivalent

COFC Container-on-Flatcar

COI Cost of Illness

COPD Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

CoV Coefficient of Variation

CPS Cam Profile Switching

CRC Coordinating Research Council

CRGNSA Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area

CRR Rolling Resistance Coefficient

CS Climate Sensitivity

CSI Cambridge Systematics Inc.

CSS Coastal Sage Scrub

CSV Comma-separated Values

CVD Cardiovascular Disease

CVT Continuously-Variable Transmission

CW Curb Weight

D/UAF Downward and Upward Adjustment Factor

DCP Dual Cam Phasing

DCT Dual Clutch Transmission

DE Diesel Exhaust

DEAC Cylinder Deactivation

DEER Diesel Engine-Efficiency and Emissions Research

DEF Diesel Exhaust Fluid

DHHS U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

Diesel HAD Diesel Health Assessment Document

DMC Direct Manufacturing Costs

DO Dissolved Oxygen

DOC Diesel Oxidation Catalyst

DOD Department of Defense

DOE Department of Energy

DOHC Dual Overhead Camshaft Engines

DOT Department of Transportation

DPF Diesel Particulate Filter

DPM Diesel Particulate Matter

DR Discount Rate

DRIA Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis

DVVL Discrete Variable Valve Lift

EC European Commission

EC Elemental Carbon

ECU Electronic Control Unit

ED Emergency Department

EERA Energy and Environmental Research Associates

EFR Engine Friction Reduction

EGR Exhaust Gas Recirculation

EHPS Electrohydraulic Power Steering

EIA

Energy Information Administration (part of the U.S. Department of 

Energy)

EISA Energy Independence and Security Act

EMS-HAP Emissions Modeling System for Hazardous Air Pollution

EO Executive Order

EPA Environmental Protection Agency

EPS Electric Power Steering

ERG Eastern Research Group

ESC Electronic Stability Control

EV Electric Vehicle

F Frequency

FEL Family Emission Limit

FET Federal Excise Tax

FEV1 Functional Expiratory Volume

FHWA Federal Highway Administration

FIA Forest Inventory and Analysis

FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

FOH Fuel Operated Heater

FR Federal Register

FTP Federal Test Procedure

FVC Forced Vital Capacity

g Gram 
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

g/s Gram-per-second

g/ton-mile Grams emitted to move one ton (2000 pounds) of freight over one mile

gal Gallon

gal/1000 tonmileGallons of fuel used to move one ton of payload (2,000 pounds) over 

1000 miles

GCAM Global Change Assessment Model

GCW Gross Combined Weight

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEM Greenhouse gas Emissions Model

GEOS Goddard Earth Observing System

GHG Greenhouse Gases

GIFT Geospatial Intermodal Freight Transportation

GREET

Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in 

Transportation

GSF1 Generic Speed Form one

GUI Graphical User Interface

GVWR Gross Vehicle Weight Rating

GWP Global Warming Potential

HABs Harmful Algal Blooms

HAD Diesel Health Assessment Document

HC Hydrocarbon

HD Heavy-Duty

HDUDDS Heavy Duty Urban Dynamometer Driving Cycle

HEG High Efficiency Gearbox

HEI Health Effects Institute 

HES Health Effects Subcommittee 

HEV Hybrid Electric Vehicle

HFC Hydrofluorocarbon

HFET Highway Fuel Economy Dynamometer Procedure

HHD Heavy Heavy-Duty

HHDDT Highway Heavy-Duty Diesel Transient

hp Horsepower

hrs Hours

HRV Heart Rate Variability

HSC High Speed Cruise Duty Cycle

HTUF Hybrid Truck User Forum

hz Hertz

IARC International Agency for Research on Cancer

IATC Improved Automatic Transmission Control

IC Indirect Costs

ICCT International Council on Clean Transport

ICD International Classification of Diseases

ICF ICF International
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ICM Indirect Cost Multiplier

ICP Intake Cam Phasing

IMAC Improved Mobile Air Conditioning

IMPROVE Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IRFA Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis

IRIS Integrated Risk Information System

ISA Integrated Science Assessment

JAMA Journal of the American Medical Association

k Thousand

kg Kilogram

KI kinetic intensity

km Kilometer

km/h Kilometers per Hour

kW Kilowatt

L Liter

lb Pound

LD Light-Duty

LHD Light Heavy-Duty

LLNL Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s

LRR Lower Rolling Resistance

LSC Low Speed Cruise Duty Cycle

LT Light Trucks

LTCCS Large Truck Crash Causation Study

LUB Low Friction Lubes

LUC Land Use Change

m

2

Square Meters

m

3 Cubic Meters

MAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change

MCF Mixed Conifer Forest

MD Medium-Duty

MDPV Medium-Duty Passenger Vehicles

mg Milligram

MHD Medium Heavy-Duty

MHEV Mild Hybrid

mi mile

min Minute

MM Million

MMBD Million Barrels per Day

MMT Million Metric Tons

MOVES Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator

mpg Miles per Gallon

mph Miles per Hour
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

MSAT Mobile Source Air Toxic

MRL Minimal Risk Level

MT Manual Transmission

MY Model Year

N2O Nitrous Oxide

NA Not Applicable

NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards

NAFA National Association of Fleet Administrators

NAICS North American Industry Classification System 

NAS National Academy of Sciences

NATA National Air Toxic Assessment 

NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCI National Cancer Institute

NCLAN National Crop Loss Assessment Network

NEC Net Energy Change Tolerance

NEI National Emissions Inventory

NEMS National Energy Modeling System

NEPA National Environmental Policy Act

NESCAUM Northeastern States for Coordinated Air Use Management

NESCCAF Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future

NESHAP National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants

NHS National Highway System

NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NiMH Nickel Metal-Hydride

NIOSH National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health

Nm Newton-meters

NMHC Nonmethane Hydrocarbons

NMMAPS National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study

NOX Nitrogen Oxide

NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

NOx Oxides of Nitrogen

NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

NPV Net Present Value

NRC National Research Council

NRC-CAN National Research Council of Canada

NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory

NTP National Toxicology Program

NVH Noise Vibration and Harshness

O&M Operating and maintenance

O3 Ozone

OAQPS Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

OC Organic Carbon

OE Original Equipment

OEHHA Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment

OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer

OHV Overhead Valve

OMB Office of Management and Budget

OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

ORD EPA's Office of Research and Development

ORNL Oak Ridge National Laboratory

OTAQ Office of Transportation and Air Quality

Pa Pascal

PAH Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

PEF Peak Expiratory Flow

PEMS Portable Emissions Monitoring System

PGM Platinum Group Metal

PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

PM Particulate Matter

PM10 Coarse Particulate Matter (diameter of 10 μm or less)

PM2.5 Fine Particulate Matter (diameter of 2.5 μm or less)

POM Polycyclic Organic Matter

Ppb Parts per Billion

Ppm Parts per Million

Psi Pounds per Square Inch

PTO Power Take Off

R&D Research and Development

RBM Resisting Bending Moment

REL Reference Exposure Level

RESS Rechargeable Energy Storage System

RFA Regulatory Flexibility Act

RfC Reference Concentration

RFS2 Renewable Fuel Standard 2

RIA Regulatory Impact Analysis

RPE Retail Price Equivalent

Rpm Revolutions per Minute

RSWT Reduced-Scale Wind Tunnel

S Second

SAB Science Advisory Board

SAB-HES Science Advisory Board - Health Effects Subcommittee

SAE Society of Automotive Engineers

SAR Second Assessment Report

SAV Submerged Aquatic Vegetation

SBA Small Business Administration

SBAR Small Business Advocacy Review
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

SBREFA Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act

SCC Social Cost of Carbon

SCR Selective Catalyst Reduction

SER Small Entity Representation

SET Supplemental Emission Test

SGDI Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection

SHEV Strong Hybrid Vehicles

SI Spark-Ignition

SIDI Spark Ignition Direct Injection

SO2 Sulfur Dioxide

SOx Sulfur Oxides

SOA Secondary Organic Aerosol 

SOC State of Charge

SOHC Single Overhead Cam

SOX Oxides of Sulfur

SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve

STB Surface Transportation Board

Std. Standard

STP Scaled Tractive Power

SUV Sport Utility Vehicle

SVOC Semi-Volatile Organic Compound

SwRI Southwest Research Institute

TAR Technical Assessment Report

TC Total Costs

TCp Total Cost package

TDS Turbocharging And Downsizing

THC Total Hydrocarbon

TIAX TIAX LLC

TMC Technology & Maintenance Council

TOFC Trailer-on-Flatcar

Ton-mile One ton (2000 pounds) of payload over one mile

TPM Tire Pressure Monitoring

TRBDS Turbocharging and Downsizing

TRU Trailer Refrigeration Unit

TSD Technical Support Document

TSS Thermal Storage

TTMA Truck Trailer Manufacturers Association

TW Test Weight

U/DAF Upward and Downward Adjustment Factor

UCT Urban Creep and Transient Duty Cycle

UFP Ultra Fine Particles

URE Unit Risk Estimate
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

USDA United States Department of Agriculture

USGCRP United States Global Change Research Program

UV Ultraviolet

UV-b Ultraviolet-b

VHHD Vocational Heavy Heavy-Duty

VIN Vehicle Identification Number

VIUS Vehicle Inventory Use Survey

VLHD Vocational Light Heavy-Duty

VMHD Vocational Medium Heavy-Duty

VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled

VOC Volatile Organic Compound

VSL Vehicle Speed Limiter

VTRIS Vehicle Travel Information System

VVL Variable Valve Lift

VVT Variable Valve Timing

WACAP Western Airborne Contaminants Assessment Project

WBS Wide Base Singles

WHR Waste Heat Recovery

WHTC World Harmonized Transient Cycle

WHVC World Harmonized Vehicle Cycle

WRF Weather Research Forecasting

WTP Willingness-to-Pay

WTVC World Wide Transient Vehicle Cycle

WVU West Virginia University
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

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Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-1

Executive Summary

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration (NHTSA), on behalf of the Department of Transportation, are each proposing 

changes to our comprehensive Heavy-Duty National Program that would further reduce 

greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and increase fuel efficiency for on-road heavy-duty vehicles, 

responding to the President’s directive on February 18, 2014, to take coordinated steps toward 

the production of even cleaner vehicles. NHTSA’s fuel consumption standards and EPA’s 

carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions standards would be tailored to each of the three current 

regulatory categories of heavy-duty vehicles: (1) Combination Tractors; (2) Heavy-duty Pickup 

Trucks and Vans; and (3) Vocational Vehicles, as well as gasoline and diesel heavy-duty 

engines. In addition, the agencies would be adding new standards for combination trailers. 

EPA’s hydrofluorocarbon emissions standards that currently apply to air conditioning systems in 

tractors, pickup trucks, and vans, would also be applied to vocational vehicles. 

Table 1 and Table 2 present the rule-related fuel savings, costs, benefits and net benefits 

in both present value terms and in annualized terms as calculated by NHTSA and EPA, 

respectively. Table 3 presents the proposed rule’s fully phased-in (MY 2027) numeric standards 

by vehicle (and engine) subcategory, along with the agencies’ projected per vehicle incremental 

cost and incremental improvement in fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions.

For HD pickups and vans, the agencies are proposing performance-based standards under 

which, as for Phase 1, the average fuel consumption and CO2 emission rates required of a 

manufacturer depend on the mix of vehicles produced by the manufacturer for sale in the U.S. 

For each vehicle, the agencies are again proposing to define the work factor as the sum of (a) 

75% of the vehicle’s maximum payload, 25% of the vehicles maximum towing capacity, and (c) 

375 lbs. if the vehicle has four-wheel drive. The agencies are further proposing that fuel 

consumption and CO2 emission rate targets will apply to each vehicle based on the vehicle’s 

work factor and fuel type, and that the average fuel consumption and CO2 emission rates 

required of the manufacturer will be defined as the production-weighted average of these targets. 

The proposed fuel consumption targets are linear functions defined by the slopes and intercepts 

shown below in Figure 1, Figure 2, and Table 4.
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-2

Table 1 NHTSA’s Estimated 2018-2029 Model Year Lifetime Discounted Costs, 

Benefits, and Net Benefits using Method A and Relative to the More Dynamic Baseline and Assuming the 3% 

Discount Rate SCC Valuea

(Billions of 2012 Dollars)

Lifetime Present Value – 3% Discount Rate

Vehicle Program -$25.2

Maintenance -$1.1

Fuel Savings $170.1

Benefits $93.8

Net Benefits $238

Annualized Value – 3% Discount Rate

Vehicle Program -$1.0

Maintenance -$0.04

Fuel Savings $6.7

Benefits $3.7

Net Benefits $9.4

Lifetime Present Value - 7% Discount Rate

Vehicle Program -$17

Maintenance -$0.6

Fuel Savings $91.7

Benefits $66.1

Net Benefits $140

Annualized Value – 7% Discount Rate

Vehicle Program -$1.2

Maintenance -$0.04

Fuel Savings $6.7

Benefits $4.8

Net Benefits $10.2

Notes:

a

For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Preamble Section I.D; for 

an explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see 

Preamble Section X.A.1
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-3

Table 2 EPA’s Estimated 2018-2029 Model Year Lifetime Discounted Costs, 

Benefits, and Net Benefits using Method B and Relative to the Less Dynamic Baseline and Assuming the 3% 

Discount Rate SCC Valuea

(Billions of 2012 Dollars)

Lifetime Present Valuec– 3% Discount Rate

Vehicle Program -$25

Maintenance -$1.1

Fuel Savings $171

Benefits b

$97

Net Benefitsd$242

Annualized Valuee– 3% Discount Rate

Vehicle Program -$1.3

Maintenance -$0.1

Fuel Savings $8.7

Benefits b

$4.9

Net Benefitsd$12.3

Lifetime Present Valuec- 7% Discount Rate

Vehicle Program -$17

Maintenance -$0.6

Fuel Savings $90

Benefits b

$65

Net Benefitsd$138

Annualized Valuee– 7% Discount Rate

Vehicle Program -$1.3

Maintenance $0.0

Fuel Savings $7.3

Benefits b

$4.2

Net Benefitsd$10.1

a

For an explanation of analytical Methods A and B, please see Preamble Section I.D; for an 

explanation of the less dynamic baseline, 1a, and more dynamic baseline, 1b, please see 

Preamble Section X.A.1

b EPA estimated the benefits associated with four different values of a one ton CO2 reduction 

(model average at 2.5% discount rate, 3%, and 5%; 95th percentile at 3%), which each 

increase over time. For the purposes of this overview presentation of estimated costs and 

benefits, however, the benefits shown here use the marginal value deemed to be central by 

the interagency working group on this topic: the model average at 3% discount rate, in 2012

dollars. Chapter 8.5 provides a complete list of values for the 4 estimates. Note that net 

present value of reduced CO2 emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The 

same discount rate used to discount the value of damages from future emissions (SCC at 5, 

3, and 2.5 percent) is used to calculate net present value of SCC for internal consistency. 

Refer to Section Chapter 8.5 for more detail.

c

Present value is the total, aggregated amount that a series of monetized costs or benefits that 

occur over time is worth now (in year 2012 dollar terms), discounting future values to the 

present over the lifetime of each model year vehicle.

d Net benefits reflect the fuel savings plus benefits minus costs.

e The annualized value is the constant annual value through a 30 year lifetime whose

summed present value equals the present value from which it was derived. Annualized SCC 

values are calculated using the same rate as that used to determine the SCC value, while all 

other costs and benefits are annualized at either 3% or 7%.
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-4

Table 3 Summary of Proposed 2027 Standards Including Average Per Vehicle Costs and 

Projected Improvement

REGULATORY 

SUBCATEGORY

CO2 GRAMS PER 

TON-MILE (FOR 

ENGINES, CO2

GRAMS PER 

BRAKE 

HORSEPOWERHOUR; FOR HD 

PUV, GRAMS PER 

MILE)

FUEL 

CONSUMPTION 

GALLON PER 1,000 

TON-MILE (FOR 

ENGINES,

GALLONS PER 100 

BRAKE 

HORSEPOWERHOUR; FOR HD 

PUV, GALLONS 

PER 100 MILES)

AVERAGE 

INCREMENTAL 

COST PER 

VEHICLE OR 

ENGINE 

RELATIVE TO 

PHASE 1 COSTS IN 

MODEL YEAR 

2027 a

AVERAGE 

PERCENT FUEL 

CONSUMPTION 

AND CO2

IMPROVEMENT IN 

MY 2027 RELATIVE 

TO MY 2017

Tractors

Class 7 Low Roof Day 

Cab 87 8.5462 $10,140 19%

Class 7 Mid Roof Day 

Cab 96 9.4303 $10,140 19%

Class 7 High Roof Day 

Cab 96 9.4303 $10,099 21%

Class 8 Low Roof Day 

Cab 70 6.8762 $10,204 19%

Class 8 Mid Roof Day 

Cab 76 7.4656 $10,204 18%

Class 8 High Roof Day 

Cab 76 7.4656 $10,209 20%

Class 8 Low Roof 

Sleeper Cab 62 6.0904 $12,744 22%

Class 8 Mid Roof 

Sleeper Cab 69 6.7780 $12,744 21%

Class 8 High Roof 

Sleeper Cab 67 6.5815 $12,842 24%

Trailers

Long Dry Box Trailer 77 7.5639 $1,409 8%

Short Dry Box Trailer 140 13.7525 $1,280 7%

Long Refrigerated Box 

Trailer 80 7.8585 $1,253 5%

Short Refrigerated Box 

Trailer 144 14.1454 $1,253 5%

Notes:

a Engine costs are included in average vehicle costs.
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-5

Table 3 (cont.) Summary of Proposed 2027 Standards Including Average Per Vehicle Costs and Projected 

Improvement

REGULATORY 

SUBCATEGORY

CO2 GRAMS PER 

TON-MILE (FOR 

ENGINES, CO2

GRAMS PER 

BRAKE 

HORSEPOWERHOUR; FOR HD 

PUV, GRAMS PER 

MILE)

FUEL 

CONSUMPTION 

GALLON PER 1,000 

TON-MILE (FOR 

ENGINES,

GALLONS PER 100 

BRAKE 

HORSEPOWERHOUR; FOR HD 

PUV, GALLONS 

PER 100 MILES)

AVERAGE 

INCREMENTAL 

COST PER 

VEHICLE OR 

ENGINE 

RELATIVE TO 

PHASE 1 COSTS IN 

MODEL YEAR 

2027 a

AVERAGE 

PERCENT FUEL 

CONSUMPTION 

AND CO2

IMPROVEMENT IN 

MY 2027 RELATIVE 

TO MY 2017

Vocational Diesel

LHD Urban 272 26.7191 $3,489 16%

LHD Multi-Purpose 280 27.5049 $3,490 16%

LHD Regional 292 28.6837 $1,407 16%

MHD Urban 172 16.8959 $4,696 16%

MHD Multi-Purpose 174 17.0923 $4,696 16%

MHD Regional 170 16.6994 $1,395 16%

HHD Urban 182 17.8782 $7,422 16%

HHD Multi-Purpose 183 17.9764 $7,422 16%

HHD Regional 174 17.0923 $4,682 16%

Vocational Gasoline

LHD Urban 299 33.6446 $3,086 12%

LHD Multi-Purpose 308 34.6574 $3,087 12%

LHD Regional 321 36.1202 $1,004 12%

MHD Urban 189 21.2670 $4,327 13%

MHD Multi-Purpose 191 21.4921 $4,327 13%

MHD Regional 187 21.0420 $1,026 13%

HHD Urban 196 22.0547 $7,053 12%

HHD Multi-Purpose 198 22.2797 $7,053 12%

HHD Regional 188 21.1545 $4,313 12%

Diesel Enginesa

LHD Vocational 553 5.4322 $471 4%

MHD Vocational 553 5.4322 $437 4%

HHD Vocational 533 5.2358 $437 4%

MHD Tractor 466 4.5776 $1,698 4%

HHD Tractor 441 4.3320 $1,698 4%

Class 2b and 3 HD Pickups and Vansb

HD Pickup and Van 458 4.8608 $1,357 18%

Notes:

a Engine costs are included in average vehicle costs. Costs shown for diesel engines are not additive to vehicle 

costs.

b

For HD pickups and vans, Table 3 shows results for MY2029, assuming continuation of proposed MY2027 

standard.
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-6

Figure 1 EPA Proposed CO2 Target Standards and NHTSA Proposed Fuel Consumption Target Standards 

for Diesel HD Pickups and Vans

Figure 2 EPA Proposed CO2 Target Standards and NHTSA Proposed Fuel Consumption Target Standards 

for Gasoline HD Pickups and Vans

3.44

3.94

4.44

4.94

5.44

5.94

6.44

6.94

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000

Work Factor

Diesel Standards

CO2(grams permile)

3.94

4.44

4.94

5.44

5.94

6.44

6.94

7.44

7.94

8.44

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000

Work Factor

Gasoline Standards

FuelConsumption (gallons per100 miles)

CO2(grams permile)
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-7

Described mathematically, EPA’s and NHTSA’s proposed target standards are defined 

by the following formulas:

EPA CO2 Target (g/mile) = [a x WF] + b

NHTSA Fuel Consumption Target (gallons/100 miles) = [c x WF] + d

Where:

WF = Work Factor = [0.75 x (Payload Capacity + xwd)] + [0.25 x Towing Capacity]

Payload Capacity = GVWR (lb) – Curb Weight (lb)

xwd = 500 lb if the vehicle is equipped with 4wd, otherwise equals 0 lb.

Towing Capacity = GCWR (lb) – GVWR (lb)

Coefficients a, b, c, and d are taken from Table . 

Table 4. Proposed Phase 2 Coefficients for HD Pickup and Van Target Standards

DIESEL VEHICLES

Model Year a b c d

2018-2020 a0.0416 320 0.0004086 3.143

2021 0.0406 312 0.0003988 3.065

2022 0.0395 304 0.0003880 2.986

2023 0.0386 297 0.0003792 2.917

2024 0.0376 289 0.0003694 2.839

2025 0.0367 282 0.0003605 2.770

2026 0.0357 275 0.0003507 2.701

2027 and later 0.0348 268 0.0003418 2.633

Gasoline Vehicles

Model Year a b c d

2018-2020 a0.044 339 0.0004951 3.815

2021 0.0429 331 0.0004827 3.725

2022 0.0418 322 0.0004703 3.623

2023 0.0408 314 0.0004591 3.533

2024 0.0398 306 0.0004478 3.443

2025 0.0388 299 0.0004366 3.364

2026 0.0378 291 0.0004253 3.274

2027 and later 0.0369 284 0.0004152 3.196

Note:

a

Phase 1 primary phase-in coefficients. Alternative phase-in coefficients are different in MY2018 only.
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-8

This Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) provides detailed supporting 

documentation to EPA and NHTSA joint proposal under each of their respective statutory

authorities. Because there are slightly different requirements and flexibilities in the two 

authorizing statutes, this Draft RIA provides documentation for the primary joint provisions as 

well as for provisions specific to each agency.

This RIA is generally organized to provide overall background information, 

methodologies, and data inputs, followed by results of the various technical and economic 

analyses. A summary of each chapter of the RIA follows. 

Chapter 1: Industry Characterization. In order to assess the impacts of greenhouse gas 

(GHG) and fuel consumption regulations upon the affected industries, it is important to 

understand the nature of the industries impacted by the regulations. The heavy-duty vehicle

industries include the manufacturers of Class 2b through Class 8 trucks, engines, trailers and 

some other equipment. Of these categories, trailers are the only industry that would be newly 

regulated under the proposed standards. This chapter provides market information for the trailer

industry, as well as the variety of ownership patterns, for background purposes. 

Chapter 2: Technology and Cost. This chapter presents details of the vehicle and 

engine technologies and technology packages for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fuel 

consumption. These technologies and technology packages represent potential ways that the 

industry could meet the CO2 and fuel consumption stringency levels, and they provide the basis 

for the technology costs and effectiveness analyses.

Chapter 3: Test Procedures. Laboratory procedures to physically test engines, vehicles, 

and components are a crucial aspect of the heavy-duty vehicle GHG and fuel consumption 

program. The rulemaking would establish some new test procedures for both engine and vehicle 

compliance and would revise existing procedures. This chapter describes the relevant test 

procedures, including methodologies for assessing engine emission performance, the effects of 

aerodynamics and tire rolling resistance, as well as procedures for chassis dynamometer testing 

and their associated drive cycles.

Chapter 4: Vehicle Simulation Model. An important aspect of a regulatory program is 

its ability to accurately estimate the potential environmental benefits of heavy-duty truck 

technologies through testing and analysis. Most large truck manufacturers employ various 

computer simulation methods to estimate truck efficiency for purposes of developing and 

refining their products. Each method has advantages and disadvantages. This section will focus 

on the use of a type truck simulation modeling that the agencies have developed specifically for 

assessing tailpipe GHG emissions and fuel consumption for purposes of this rulemaking. The 

agencies are proposing to revise the existing simulation model -- the “Greenhouse gas Emissions 

Model (GEM)” -- as the primary tool to certify vocational vehicles, combination tractor, and 

combination trailers, Class 2b through Class 8 heavy-duty vehicles that are not heavy-duty 

pickups or vans) and discuss the model in this chapter. 

Chapter 5: Impacts on Emissions and Fuel Consumption. This program estimates 

anticipated impacts from the CO2 emission and fuel efficiency standards. The agencies quantify

fuel use and emissions from the GHGs carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide 
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-9

(N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). In addition to reducing the emissions of greenhouse 

gases and fuel consumption, this program would also influence the emissions of “criteria” air 

pollutants, including carbon monoxide (CO), fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and sulfur dioxide 

(SOX) and the ozone precursors hydrocarbons (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOX); and several

air toxics (including benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acrolein), as 

described further in Chapter 5.

The agencies used EPA’s Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES2014) to estimate 

downstream (tailpipe) emission impacts for combination tractors and vocational vehicles, and a 

spreadsheet model based on emission factors the “GREET” model to estimate upstream (fuel 

production and distribution) emission changes resulting from the decreased fuel. For HD 

pickups and vans, the agencies used DOT’s CAFE model to estimate manufacturer responses to 

the proposed standards. NHTSA used the CAFE model to estimate emission impacts, and EPA 

used the CAFE model technology penetration outputs as an input to MOVES to calculate 

emission impacts. Based on these analyses, the agencies estimate that this program would lead 

to 183.4 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 equivalent (CO2EQ) of annual GHG reduction and 

13.4 billion gallons of fuel savings in the year 2050, as discussed in more detail in Chapter 5.

Chapter 6: Health and Environmental Impacts. This chapter discusses the health effects 

associated with non-GHG pollutants, specifically: particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen oxides 

(NOX), sulfur oxides (SOX), carbon monoxide and air toxics. These pollutants would not be 

directly regulated by the standards, but the standards would affect emissions of these pollutants 

and precursors. Reductions in these pollutants are the co-benefits of the rulemaking (that is, 

benefits in addition to the benefits of reduced GHGs). This chapter also discusses GHG-related 

impacts, such as changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, global mean temperature, sea level 

rise, and ocean pH associated with the program’s GHG emissions reductions.

Chapter 7: Vehicle-Related Costs of the Program. In this chapter, the agencies present 

our estimate of the costs associated with the proposed program. The presentation summarizes 

the costs associated with new technology expected to be added to meet the GHG and fuel 

consumption standards, including hardware costs to comply with the air conditioning (A/C) 

leakage program. The analysis discussed in Chapter 7 provides our best estimates of incremental

costs on a per truck basis and on an annual total basis. We also present the fuel savings and 

maintenance costs in this chapter, along with a detailed payback analysis for various vehicle 

segments.

Chapter 8: EPA’s Economic and Other Impacts Analysis. This chapter provides EPA’s 

description of the net benefits of the proposed HD National Program. To reach these 

conclusions, the chapter discusses each of the following aspects of the analyses of benefits:

Rebound Effect: The VMT rebound effect refers to the fraction of fuel savings expected 

to result from an increase in fuel efficiency that is offset by additional vehicle use. 

Energy Security Impacts: A reduction of U.S. petroleum imports reduces both financial 

and strategic risks associated with a potential disruption in supply or a spike in cost of a 

particular energy source. This reduction in risk is a measure of improved U.S. energy security. 
Table of Contents, Acronym List, and Executive Summary

ES-10

Monetized CO2 Impacts: The agencies estimate the monetized benefits of GHG 

reductions by assigning a dollar value to reductions in CO2 emissions using recent estimates of 

the social cost of carbon (SCC). The SCC is an estimate of the monetized damages associated 

with an incremental increase in carbon emissions in a given year. 

Other Impacts: There are other impacts associated with the GHG emissions and fuel 

efficiency standards. Lower fuel consumption would, presumably, result in fewer gallons being 

refilled and, thus, less time spent refueling. The increase in vehicle-miles driven due to a 

positive rebound effect may also increase the societal costs associated with traffic congestion, 

crashes, and noise. However, if drivers drive those additional rebound miles, there must be a 

value to them which we estimate as the value of increased travel. The agencies also discuss the 

impacts of safety standards and voluntary safety improvements on vehicle weight.

Chapter 8 also presents a summary of the total costs, total benefits, and net benefits 

expected under the program. 

Chapter 9: NHTSA and EPA considered the potential safety impact of technologies that 

improve HD vehicle fuel efficiency and GHG emissions as part of the assessment of regulatory

alternatives. This chapter discusses the literature and research considered by the agencies, which 

included two National Academies of Science reports, an analysis of safety effects of HD pickups 

and vans using estimates from the DOT report on the effect of mass reduction and vehicle size 

on safety, and agency-sponsored safety testing and research.. 

Chapter 10: NHTSA CAFE Model. This chapter describes NHTSA’s CAFE modeling 

system. The agencies used DOT’s CAFE model to estimate manufacturer responses to the 

proposed standards for HD pickups and vans, and NHTSA also used the CAFE model to 

estimate emission impacts for this sector. 

Chapter 11: Results of Preferred and Alternative Standards. The heavy-duty truck 

segment is very complex. The sector consists of a diverse group of impacted parties, including 

engine manufacturers, chassis manufacturers, truck manufacturers, trailer manufacturers, truck 

fleet owners and the public. The agencies have largely designed this program to maximize the 

environmental and fuel savings benefits, taking into account the unique and varied nature of the 

regulated industries. In developing this program, we considered a number of alternatives that 

could have resulted in fewer or potentially greater GHG and fuel consumption reductions than 

the program we are proposing. Chapter 9 section summarizes the alternatives we considered. 

Chapter 12: Small Business Flexibility Analysis. This chapter describes the agencies’

analysis of the small business impacts due to the joint program. 

Chapter 13: Natural Gas Vehicles and Engines. This chapter describes EPA’s lifecycle 

analysis for natural gas used by the heavy-duty truck sector.