National Minerals Information Center

Comparison of U.S. Net Import Reliance for Nonfuel Mineral 

Commodities—A 60-Year Retrospective (1954–1984–2014)

The economic vitality and national security of the 

United States depend on the reliable supply of numerous 

nonfuel mineral commodities. Over the past six decades, many 

of these commodities have been sourced increasingly from 

outside the United States. The mix of commodities for which the 

United States is import dependent has changed as technologies 

have advanced, as substitute materials have been developed, 

and as world economies have changed. Although reliance on 

imports is only one of the many factors that determine supply 

risk, a clear, long-term trend has emerged from the data compiled 

and published by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals 

Information Center (USGS–NMIC), and its predecessor organizations. Because the global distribution of mineral resources 

and reserves is not uniform, the United States has always been 

import reliant for some mineral commodities. Essentially, the 

type of commodities and the countries from which they are 

sourced determine risk related to import dependence. In light 

of projections that 2.5 billion to 3 billion people globally could 

move into the middle class by 2030 (Rohde, 2012), the demand 

for many types of mineral commodities is likely to continue to 

increase. Recent concerns regarding so-called “critical minerals” 

have been driven by market dislocations in the rare-earth-element

supply chain in 2010 that resulted from a short-term policy 

decision by the Government of the People’s Republic of China 

to limit exports. That policy has since been changed as a result 

of actions by the World Trade Organization, but the events 

that followed, such as higher prices and intensive efforts to 

diversify sources of supply, illustrate the underlying issues of 

supply risk and the influence that disruptions can have on supply. 

These factors are often used in the classification of a mineral 

commodity as “critical” (National Research Council, 2008).

The USGS–NMIC collects, analyzes, and disseminates 

information on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis for 

more than 90 nonfuel mineral commodities from more than 

180 countries. These data indicate that from 1954 through 2014 

there was (1) a clear increase in the number and type of nonfuel 

mineral commodities for which the United States was net import 

reliant, (2) an increase in the percentage of import reliance for 

individual nonfuel mineral commodities, and (3) a shift in the 

geographic distribution of the source countries. 

Net Import Reliance

Nonfuel mineral commodities for which imports are 

required to satisfy domestic demand are those for which the 

importing country is net import reliant. The USGS–NMIC 

calculates a net import reliance (NIR) for nonfuel mineral 

commodities using prior-year data and publishes this information annually in the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries. 

Figure 1. Number of nonfuel mineral commodities for 

which the United States was at least 25% net import reliant 

in 1954, 1984, and 2014. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines 

(1957, 1985); U.S. Geological Survey (2015).

Net import reliance is the amount of imported material 

(including changes in stocks) minus exports and is expressed 

as a percentage (%) of domestic consumption:

NIR% = imports– exports+adjustments in stocks ×100 consumption

For example, a nonfuel mineral commodity that is not produced 

in the United States and for which the United States relies 

entirely on imports and (or) materials from stocks to satisfy 

domestic demand has an NIR% of 100. 

Changes in Net Import Reliance

Over the past six decades, there has been a clear increase 

in the number of nonfuel mineral commodities for which the 

United States is net import reliant as well as an increase in 

the percentage of reliance (fig. 1). In particular, the number of 

nonfuel mineral commodities for which the United States was 

greater than 50% net import reliant increased from 28 in 1954 

to 47 in 2014.

The 1950s was a decade of significant changes in the 

mining and mineral commodity industries. For example, during 

the early 1950s, concerns regarding the supply of strategic and 

critical minerals led to the establishment of multiple Federal 

programs (now terminated) such as the Defense Minerals 

Administration, Defense Minerals Exploration Administration, 

and Office of Minerals Exploration, which provided millions 

of dollars in Federal funds for mineral exploration (Bolm and 

others, 2000). In addition, following the Korean War, demand for 

many mineral commodities entered a period of growth, supply 

concerns triggered multiyear price increases for many nonfuel 

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Number of nonfuel mineral

commodities

1954 1984 2014

Percentage of net import reliance

EXPLANATION

25 to 50 >50 to <100 100

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Fact Sheet 2015–3082

December 2015
mineral commodities, and domestic price supports for mineral 

commodities began to be phased out (Castor and Ferdock, 2003; 

Radetzki, 2006).

Analysis of 79 nonfuel mineral commodities showed that 

in 1954 the United States was greater than 50% net import 

reliant for 28 of those commodities and 100% net import reliant 

for 8. In 1984, the total number of commodities analyzed had 

increased to 91; the United States was greater than 50% net 

import reliant for 38 of those commodities and 100% net import 

reliant for 11. In 2014, 94 nonfuel mineral commodities were 

analyzed by USGS–NMIC; the United States was greater 

than 50% net import reliant for 47 of those commodities and 

100% net import reliant for 19. The commodities for which 

the United States was 100% net import reliant for the 3 years 

examined are shown in the lists in figure 2.

(Note: Comparisons between years are not precise because 

of changes in the way mineral commodities are classified in the 

annual reports used in this study. Some minerals are no longer 

covered, some have been added, and some have been combined.)

Shift in Geographic Distribution of Supply

Global supply patterns have changed dramatically over 

the last 60 years owing to numerous economic, technical, 

and geopolitical factors. The United States has had steady, 

increasingly strong trade relations with neighboring countries 

Canada and Mexico, culminating in the signing of the North 

American Free Trade Agreement in 1992. In 1954, several 

countries in Africa were important sources of nonfuel mineral 

commodities imported by the United States, closely followed 

by the United Kingdom and countries in South America 

(fig. 2, 1954 map). By 1984, more and different countries were 

sources of supply, with China and the Union of Soviet Socialist 

Republics becoming sources for numerous nonfuel mineral 

commodities (fig. 2, 1984 map). By 2014, China was a source 

of supply for 24 nonfuel mineral commodities, about half of the 

47 nonfuel mineral commodities for which the United States was 

greater than 50% net import reliant. The number of these nonfuel 

mineral commodities supplied by Canada in 2014 was 16, with 

Mexico, Russia, and South Africa the next leading sources, 

each providing U.S. imports of 8 different nonfuel mineral 

commodities (fig. 2, 2014 map). South Africa has remained a 

source of nonfuel mineral commodities for the United States, 

but many other countries on the African continent are no longer 

an important source. The overall trend is clear: the United States 

is becoming net import reliant on many more nonfuel mineral 

commodities. Moreover, the sources of supply are much more 

globally distributed, with the largest increase in dependence on 

sources in Asia, especially China.

Implications of Shifts in Net Import Reliance

Although net import reliance alone does not necessarily 

equate to supply risk, the types of commodities, as well as their 

sources, are important factors used to evaluate risk. Domestic 

reserves and resources, governance risk, and trade restrictions, 

among others, are additional factors that should be considered 

when calculating supply risk and developing mitigation strategies. 

Analysis of net import reliance and concerns regarding 

supply risk are not new issues. Morgan (1984, p. 59) discussed 

U.S. Government recognition of sources of supply for key 

mineral raw materials during the 19th century. Examples cited 

are the specific orders given to Commodore Perry’s 1852–54 

Far East expedition to assess coal deposits for future U.S. Navy 

needs, the encouragement in the Mining Law of 1872 to develop 

domestic mineral resources, and the concern of the U.S. Senate 

Select Committee on Ordnance and Warships in 1886 regarding 

U.S. dependence on foreign sources for iron ore and manganese. 

Moreover, when Winston Churchill, in his capacity as First Lord 

of the Admiralty in 1911, was faced with the decision to convert 

the British fleet from coal-fired ships, for which Britain had a 

ready supply of fuel, to oil-fired ships, for which it decidedly 

did not, he famously observed that “security of supply lies 

in diversity of supply” (Yergin, 2011). Since World War II, 

U.S. policymakers have sought ways to reduce U.S. vulnerability 

to interruptions of supplies of strategic materials, including 

the establishment of the National Defense Stockpile. In 1985, 

Strategic Materials: Technologies to Reduce U.S. Import Vulnerability was written by a technical advisory panel to the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment to provide guidance for 

policymakers (Office of Technology Assessment, 1985). 

Examples

• The mineral potash, an important commodity used as an agricultural fertilizer, has seen an increase in NIR%, from 3% in 

1954 to 74% in 1984 to 84% in 2014. Despite high net import 

reliance, ample domestic reserves coupled with imports from a 

geographically proximate and reliable trading partner (Canada) 

make supply risk very low for the United States. Canada has 

remained the dominant supplier, and now provides greater than 

85% of U.S. annual consumption. In addition, the United States 

has approximately 200 million metric tons of potash reserves 

and 7 billion metric tons of potash resources, with consumption 

rates of approximately 5 to 6 million metric tons per year. Thus, 

if supply or economic conditions required potash to be mined 

domestically, U.S. reserves and resources are more than sufficient to satisfy domestic demand for many years.

• Lower-cost raw material imports and substitute materials have 

displaced many domestic primary nonfuel mining activities. 

The United States was 95% net import reliant for germanium in 

2014, yet in 1984 and 1954 there was a robust domestic production capacity. Germanium is used extensively in fiber optics, 

infrared optics, electronics, and solar power applications, and 

is regarded by many observers to be a critical mineral. China, 

by a large margin, is the major U.S. supplier of germanium 

today. Vanadium, an important element used as an alloying 

component in specialty steels, is another example of a material 

for which the United States had domestic production capacity 

in 1984 and was a net exporter in 1954, but now is nearly 100% 

net import reliant. Russia, the Czech Republic, and South Africa 

are now the biggest suppliers of the most common vanadium 

compounds imported by the United States (Polyak, 2015). 

• Alternatives to primary mining have affected net import 

reliance. Tungsten, for example, has undergone a decrease 

in NIR%, from 71% in 1984 to 43% in 2014. While primary 

mining of tungsten virtually ceased in the United States early 

in the 21st century, the biggest factor reducing net import 

reliance has been a large increase in secondary production 

through recycling. The United States met an estimated 
Nonfuel mineral commodities

for which the United States 

was 100% net import reliant

1954

Corundum (abrasives) 

Diamond, industrial

Gemstones

Niobium (Columbium)

Nitrogen, natural compounds

Quartz crystal, industrial

Radium

Strontium

1984

Cesium

Corundum (abrasives)

Diamond, industrial

Gemstones

Mica, sheet

Niobium (Columbium)

Rubidium

Strontium

Thallium

Thorium

Yttrium

2014

Arsenic

Asbestos

Bauxite

Cesium

Fluorspar

Graphite, natural

Indium

Iodine

Manganese 

Mica, sheet

Niobium (Columbium)

Quartz crystal, industrial

Rubidium

Scandium

Strontium

Tantalum

Thallium

Thorium

Vanadium

Import sources of nonfuel mineral commodities for which the United States was greater than 50% net import reliant

1954

EXPLANATION

Number of commodities, 1954 

0

1 to 3

4 to 6

7 to 12

UNITED

STATES

MEXICO

CANADA UNITED

KINGDOM

SOUTH

AFRICA

80°

80°

0°

60°

60°

20°

20°

40°

40°

180° 120° 60° 0° 60° 120° 180°

1984

EXPLANATION

Number of commodities, 1984 

0

1 to 3

4 to 6

7 to 12

13 to 18

UNITED

STATES

MEXICO

CANADA UNITED

KINGDOM

UNION OF SOVIET

SOCIALIST REPUBLICS

SOUTH

AFRICA

CHINA

2014

EXPLANATION

Number of commodities, 2014 

0

1 to 3

4 to 6

7 to 12

13 to 18

19 to 24

UNITED

STATES

UNITED

KINGDOM

CZECH

REPUBLIC

RUSSIA

SOUTH

AFRICA

MEXICO

CANADA

CHINA

Figure 2. Nonfuel mineral commodities for which the United States was 100% net import reliant 

(lists) and greater than 50% net import reliant (maps) in 1954, 1984, and 2014. Sources: U.S. Bureau 

of Mines (1957, 1985); U.S. Geological Survey (2015).
53% of its consumption of tungsten with recycled materials 

in 2014; the remainder came mostly from imports of tungsten 

concentrates and compounds such as ammonium paratungstate 

and ferrotungsten (Bermúdez-Lugo, 2014; Shedd, 2015b). 

Likewise, cobalt NIR% decreased from 95% in 1984 to 76% 

in 2014. Cobalt is produced principally as a byproduct, mostly 

from nickel and copper refining, and is an important element 

in superalloys used in aircraft gas-turbine engines. Recycling 

accounted for 27% of U.S. consumption of cobalt in 2014 

(Shedd, 2015a). Similarly, about one-third of U.S. consumption of chromium and tin was accounted for by recycling in 

2014 (Anderson, 2015; Papp, 2015). Although increased or 

more efficient recycling can help reduce risks associated with 

net import reliance, it is unlikely to completely replace the 

need for primary mined materials as long as global demand 

for mineral commodities continues to increase.

Discussion 

NIR% is only one of the many determinants of supply risk. It 

does not take into account information about the economic or 

strategic value of being net import reliant for a mineral commodity.

Haglund (1983) observed that there was a growing recognition

in the 1970s that “the economic dimension of security is nearly 

as important as, and occasionally indistinguishable from, a 

state’s physical security.” Conditions other than import reliance 

that determine supply-chain vulnerability include “the degree 

of supply concentration of the mineral in question, the identity 

of the supplying countries, whether there are alternative current 

or future supply prospects (including domestic alternatives), the 

opportunities for substitution, the nature of the uses to which the 

mineral is put, the opportunities for recycling and conservation, 

and the presence of stockpiles in the consuming countries” 

(Haglund, 1983).

Mineral commodities are the fundamental building blocks 

of civilization. Along with energy, they form an essential foundation upon which modern economies and living standards 

rest. The changing patterns in net import reliance of nonfuel 

mineral commodities over the past 60 years are a clear indication that the United States has become increasingly dependent 

on other countries to supply nonfuel mineral commodities that 

are important for its economic well-being and national security. 

When determining mineral criticality, defining supply risk, and 

developing mitigation strategies, it is crucial to understand for 

which commodities a country is experiencing an increase in 

NIR% and to know the amount of the increase, as well as to be 

aware of shifts in commodity sources and supply chains. 

Furthermore, it is important to understand and measure 

the types, sources, and quantities of commodities imported by 

the United States compared with what can be competitively 

produced domestically.

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ISSN 2327-6916 (print)

ISSN 2327-6932 (online)

http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs20153082

By Steven M. Fortier, John H. DeYoung, Jr., 

 Elizabeth S. Sangine, and Emily K. Schnebele

For more information, contact:

Director, National Minerals Information Center

U.S. Geological Survey

12201 Sunrise Valley Drive

988 National Center

Reston, VA 20192

Email: nmicrecordsmgt@usgs.gov

Or visit the USGS Minerals Information Web site at

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/