Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**Author: Date Created:**  **Date Modified: Purpose:** 
**Worksheet** AEO2013ER-Electricity_Supply-Di

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 FileInfo 1Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

United States Department of Energy 2/5/2013 Not modified. Contains emissions data used in the Social Cost of Carbon analysis for Manufacturers. **Contents** Contains Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source, United States, Reference case from the EIA's National Energy Modeling system.

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948 FileInfo 2Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**Sector and Source 2010**  **2011 2012**  **2013 Residential**  Petroleum 84.773338 77.953323 75.312363 81.059563 Natural Gas 267.373322 256.116669 238.431076 261.443054 Coal 0.696667 0.586667 0.603079 0.685814 Electricity 1/ 874.689941 827.675354 768.105652 763.806641 **Total Residential 1227.533203**  **1162.332031 1082.452148** **1106.995117 Commercial**  Petroleum 51.406666 48.84 43.770851 42.942898 Natural Gas 172.553345 171.08667 160.395096 177.325516 Coal 5.5 4.84 4.886005 4.89549 Electricity 1/ 804.803711 766.974731 737.314636 735.685669 **Total Commercial 1034.263672**  **991.741394 946.366577**  **960.849609 Industrial 2/**  Petroleum 344.116638 344.996704 366.082733 339.698151 Natural Gas 3/ 408.063354 416.789978 435.266907 433.974121 Coal 156.566666 143.183319 164.648773 154.081268 Electricity 1/ 587.397766 567.112122 550.509705 556.341064 **Total Industrial 1496.144409**  **1472.082031 1516.508057**  **1484.094604 Transportation**  Petroleum 4/ 1835.716797 1801.873291 1771.711792 1771.122925 Natural Gas 5/ 36.080002 38.939999 40.280594 41.142605 Electricity 1/ 3.875447 3.770954 3.654794 3.74762 **Total Transportation 1875.672241**  **1844.584229 1815.647217**  **1816.013184 Electric Power 6/**  Petroleum 32.670002 25.41 15.878479 15.732221 Natural Gas 398.823334 410.666687 501.977234 444.891327 Coal 1827.613403 1718.016602 1530.289062 1587.517456 Other 7/ 11.660001 11.44 11.44 11.44 **Total Electric Power 2270.766602** **2165.533203 2059.584717** **2059.581055 Total by Fuel**  Petroleum 3/ 2348.68335 2299.073242 2272.7561042250.555664 Natural Gas 1282.893311 1293.599976 1376.35083 1358.776611 Coal 1990.376709 1866.626587 1700.42688 1747.180054 Other 7/ 11.660001 11.44 11.44 11.44 

### Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source, United States, Reference case **(million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent, unless otherwise noted)**

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 1Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**Total 5633.613281** **5470.739746 5360.973633** **5367.952148 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (tons carbon diox**  **ide equivalent per person)**  **18.16918 17.513317**  **17.002178 16.860239** 

Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2010 and 2011 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports. Sources: 2010 emissions: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2011/10) (Washington, DC, October 2011). 2011 emissions and emission factors: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2012/08) (Washington, DC, August 2012). Projections: EIA, AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System run ref2013.d102312a. from biogenic energy sources as an indication of the potential net release of carbon dioxide in the absence of offsetting sequestration. 4/ This includes carbon dioxide from international bunker fuels, both civilian and military, which are excluded from the accounting of carbon dioxide emissions under the United Nations convention. From 1990 through 2011, international bunker fuels accounted for 90 to 126 million metric tons annually. 5/ Includes pipeline fuel natural gas and natural gas used as vehicle fuel. 6/ Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants that have a regulatory status. 7/ Includes emissions from geothermal power and nonbiogenic emissions from municipal waste. - - = Not applicable. Note: By convention, the direct emissions from biogenic energy sources are excluded from energy-related CO2 emissions. The release of carbon from these sources is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time. If, however, increased use of biomass energy results in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, a net positive release of carbon may occur. See "Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End Use" for the emissions 3/ Includes lease and plant fuel. 1/ Emissions from the electric power sector are distributed to the end-use sectors. 2/ Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems.

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 2Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**2014 2015**  **2016 2017**  **2018 2019**  **2020** 77.633942 76.544876 75.387749 74.149422 72.940605 71.834923 70.841835 253.411652 252.514313 251.10289 249.37709 247.505463 246.209991 245.349579 0.649213 0.641322 0.633453 0.62564 0.617837 0.610129 0.602457 757.295227 741.940491 714.781738 720.033691 728.03717 740.391663 743.932373 **1088.98999 1071.640991**  **1041.905762 1044.185791**  **1049.101074 1059.046753**  **1060.726196** 45.412987 47.384155 47.431736 47.162651 46.916893 46.760933 46.575726 176.679214 180.262497 180.622009 180.394196 179.916641 180.004974 180.182098 4.909334 4.914456 4.912185 4.910788 4.906179 4.904593 4.902492 733.537109 718.924622 693.909607 698.962952 706.158691 717.349121 725.371521 **960.538635 951.485718**  **926.875549 931.430603**  **937.898376 949.019592**  **957.03186** 341.407349 349.381897 353.089478 354.61969 355.380524 355.526245 354.626984 432.793243 446.787292 459.961578 470.909515 481.808807 486.98703 490.599121 154.490982 155.764709 154.363327 152.641479 153.271637 153.650909 153.528549 561.802429 574.301086 564.08551 578.310669 587.873108 600.304993 607.059265 **1490.493896 1526.234985**  **1531.499878 1556.481323**  **1578.333984 1596.469238** **1605.813965** 1777.44812 1787.797241 1791.41272 1793.258789 1792.920776 1790.43689 1784.512085 40.164772 39.819798 40.833282 40.925625 41.224857 41.544369 41.828861 3.840523 3.909989 3.922408 4.091106 4.292878 4.458723 4.6496 **1821.453491 1831.5271**  **1836.168335 1838.275513**  **1838.438477 1836.439941**  **1830.990601** 15.813957 15.847888 15.139841 13.183655 13.351867 13.256824 13.368174 439.124207 437.760864 474.451447 456.800598 449.484283 447.909515 445.895599 1590.097168 1574.027222 1475.667969 1519.973999 1552.085693 1589.897949 1610.308716 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 **2056.475342 2039.075928** **1976.699219 2001.398193** **2026.361816 2062.50415** **2081.012451** 2257.716309 2276.956055 2282.46167 2282.374023 2281.510498 2277.815918 2269.924805 1342.173096 1357.144775 1406.971191 1398.406982 1399.940063 1402.655884 1403.855225 1750.146729 1735.347656 1635.576904 1678.151855 1710.881348 1749.063599 1769.342163 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 

### Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source, United States, Reference case

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 3Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**5361.476074 5380.888184** **5336.449707 5370.372559** **5403.771973 5440.975098** **5454.562012**
**16.677734 16.577261**  **16.282839 16.229958**  **16.17576 16.133232**  **16.021622**

Sources: 2010 emissions: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2011/10) (Washington, DC, October 2011). 2011 emissions and emission factors: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(2012/08) (Washington, DC, August 2012). Projections: EIA, AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System run ref2013.d102312a. from biogenic energy sources as an indication of the potential net release of carbon dioxide in the absence of offsetting sequestration. 4/ This includes carbon dioxide from international bunker fuels, both civilian and military, which are excluded from the

Note: By convention, the direct emissions from biogenic energy sources are excluded from energy-related CO2 emissions. The release of carbon from these sources is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time. If, however, increased use of biomass energy results in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, a net positive release of carbon may occur. See "Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End Use" for the emissions 2/ Includes combined heat and power plants that have a non-regulatory status, and small on-site generating systems.

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 4Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**2021 2022**  **2023 2024**  **2025 2026**  **2027** 69.869064 68.912582 67.981705 67.086899 66.2202 65.386131 64.600441 244.500809 243.474091 242.384125 241.462479 240.758057 240.013794 239.266312 0.59486 0.587292 0.57976 0.572358 0.564954 0.557623 0.550375 745.703674 755.404907 762.918457 769.925354 776.408203 784.107605 792.411621 **1060.668457 1068.378906** **1073.864014 1079.047119**  **1083.951416 1090.065186** **1096.828735** 46.432697 46.264717 46.114338 45.971085 45.849655 45.697994 45.559849 180.559967 180.786285 180.945908 181.301468 181.969254 182.600357 183.399353 4.901525 4.899727 4.89766 4.895693 4.894101 4.891734 4.889641 728.828003 738.622314 746.02533 752.858765 759.570679 767.691162 775.604492 **960.722168 970.572998**  **977.983215 985.026978**  **992.283691 1000.881226** **1009.453369** 352.698883 352.220001 350.853119 349.998657 348.842957 348.028748 346.187775 493.774414 499.155853 501.957947 504.150574 505.568756 506.729462 507.737366 153.459396 153.515015 159.248444 158.522934 157.31514 156.196625 155.044205 609.288147 618.71814 620.898926 621.199036 618.983093 618.540588 612.613098 **1609.220825 1623.609009** **1632.958374 1633.871216** **1630.709961 1629.495361**  **1621.58252** 1778.093506 1771.303711 1763.35022 1753.314697 1743.640991 1734.164551 1724.229004 42.105671 42.69249 43.207314 44.057556 45.174225 46.465534 47.964684 4.831426 5.051081 5.243396 5.431724 5.669196 5.90557 6.117772 **1825.03064 1819.047241**  **1811.800903 1802.804077**  **1794.484375 1786.535645**  **1778.311523** 13.444597 13.55045 13.635403 13.719866 13.642199 13.655184 13.623234 445.380157 446.110901 447.444458 453.055115 457.663544 462.474274 469.073273 1618.386353 1646.69519 1662.566162 1671.199829 1677.885498 1688.675415 1692.610474 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 **2088.651123 2117.796387** **2135.085938 2149.414795** **2160.631104 2176.244873** **2186.746826** 2260.538818 2252.251465 2241.9348142230.091309 2218.195801 2206.932617 2194.200439 1406.321045 1412.219727 1415.939697 1424.027222 1431.133789 1438.283447 1447.440918 1777.342163 1805.697266 1827.291992 1835.190796 1840.659668 1850.321411 1853.094727 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 5Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**5455.64209 5481.608398** **5496.606445 5500.749512** **5501.429199 5506.977539**  **5506.17627**
**15.875304 15.803292**  **15.701607 15.571219**  **15.433476 15.311772**  **15.174816**

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 6Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**2028 2029**  **2030 2031**  **2032 2033**  **2034** 63.851734 63.141865 62.47237 61.836071 61.211761 60.608444 60.030704 238.363495 237.39444 236.384247 235.319794 234.129364 232.898117 231.608109 0.543164 0.536075 0.528991 0.521968 0.514811 0.507699 0.500685 799.282776 807.761841 817.39624 826.95166 835.437256 843.560242 852.908447 **1102.041138 1108.834229**  **1116.78186 1124.629517**  **1131.293213 1137.574463**  **1145.047974** 45.42025 45.30983 45.178001 45.140465 45.02644 44.943382 44.875156 184.171829 184.989426 185.833359 186.74353 187.755707 188.835587 189.752594 4.887567 4.885375 4.882421 4.880347 4.878278 4.876086 4.873777 781.602844 789.254578 796.212524 803.168396 809.640686 816.091064 823.753784 **1016.08252 1024.439209** **1032.106323 1039.932739**  **1047.301147 1054.746094** **1063.255371** 344.279785 342.946228 342.233582 341.937775 341.300598 340.794647 341.508972 508.115997 508.975677 510.657501 513.104187 515.329956 517.846863 520.206482 153.013596 152.270508 151.721497 151.164322 150.657791 150.185791 149.774094 608.179993 605.244629 603.644592 601.927612 599.180725 596.070496 594.453674 **1613.589355 1609.437012**  **1608.257202 1608.133911**  **1606.468994 1604.897705**  **1605.943237** 1715.783325 1709.075806 1705.421509 1701.688477 1698.161499 1695.976196 1695.48877 49.574486 51.320972 53.368584 56.696182 60.233616 63.592659 67.666344 6.337289 6.582727 6.856371 7.157942 7.450469 7.755345 8.075783 **1771.695068 1766.979492**  **1765.646362 1765.542603**  **1765.845581 1767.324219**  **1771.230957** 13.624587 13.681602 13.739056 13.708443 13.758461 13.81307 13.885751 473.753967 476.542358 481.704315 490.628845 497.96698 503.412445 507.347656 1696.584351 1707.179932 1717.22644 1723.428467 1728.543701 1734.811646 1746.518433 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 **2195.402832 2208.84375** **2224.109863 2239.205566** **2251.708984 2263.477051** **2279.191895** 2182.959473 2174.155273 2169.0444342164.311279 2159.458742156.135742 2155.789307 1453.979736 1459.2229 1467.947998 1482.492432 1495.415649 1506.585693 1516.581177 1855.028687 1864.871826 1874.359375 1879.995117 1884.594604 1890.381226 1901.666992 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 7Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**5503.407715 5509.689941** **5522.791504 5538.23877**  **5550.90918 5564.54248** **5585.477539**
**15.034968 14.922159**  **14.829672 14.745028**  **14.654507 14.568006**  **14.501819**

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 8Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**2035 2036**  **2037 2038**  **2039 2040**  59.477024 58.949368 58.433262 57.945637 57.472286 57.011185 230.286453 228.939316 227.641495 226.382233 225.429947 224.547348 0.493704 0.486787 0.479931 0.473135 0.466426 0.459743 861.724487 869.907715 874.263123 880.403198 883.82489 887.584106 **1151.981689 1158.283203**  **1160.817871 1165.204224** **1167.193604 1169.602417**  44.743366 44.660645 44.567307 44.5299 44.434731 44.361294 190.516479 191.175476 191.871323 192.636292 193.938492 195.406998 4.870453 4.867707 4.865223 4.862834 4.860266 4.857649 830.885803 837.235046 839.222229 842.652649 842.78186 842.67749 **1071.016113 1077.938843**  **1080.526123 1084.681641**  **1086.015381 1087.303467**  342.376801 343.553772 344.627869 345.856415 346.301392 347.229126 523.179993 525.84314 528.136536 531.109863 534.867737 537.610474 149.653458 150.604584 151.817505 153.048141 154.216934 155.383316 592.233215 589.199036 584.804565 582.285706 578.499451 575.111572 **1607.443359 1609.200439** **1609.386475 1612.300049**  **1613.885498 1615.334473**  1695.483887 1696.215088 1698.439697 1702.115112 1706.899414 1711.597778 72.367569 76.845474 82.076248 87.267899 92.203934 97.467293 8.392351 8.693116 8.952729 9.240375 9.507208 9.785179 **1776.243774 1781.753662**  **1789.46875 1798.623413**  **1808.610596 1818.85022**  13.959585 14.038989 14.117847 14.19474 14.267473 14.344051 511.331604 513.889526 514.253418 516.769958 517.359924 514.466187 1756.504517 1765.666504 1767.431641 1772.177368 1771.546021 1774.908203 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 **2293.235596 2305.034912**  **2307.24292 2314.582031** **2314.613281 2315.158447**  2156.040527 2157.417969 2160.186035 2164.641846 2169.375488 2174.543457 1527.682129 1536.692871 1543.979004 1554.16626 1563.800049 1569.498291 1911.522095 1921.62561 1924.594238 1930.561523 1931.0896 1935.608887 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 11.44 EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 9Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**5606.68457 5627.17627** **5640.199219 5660.80957** **5675.705078 5691.090332** 
**14.437316 14.371882**  **14.288416 14.225137**  **14.148249 14.0734** 

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 10Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule

**Growth Rate (2011-2040)**

-1.10% -0.50% -0.80% 0.20% **0.00%** -0.30% 0.50% 0.00% 0.30% **0.30%** 0.00% 0.90% 0.30% 0.00% **0.30%** -0.20% 3.20% 3.30% **0.00%** -2.00% 0.80% 0.10% 0.00% **0.20%** -0.20% 0.70% 0.10% 0.00% EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 11Record for the Final Section 316(b) Existing Facilities Rule **0.10%**
**-0.80%**

EPA-HQ-OW-2008-0667-DRAFT-3948AEO2013ER-Energy-Related_Carbon 12