14-i

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14-1

14.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 14-1

14.3 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14-2

14.4 IMPACT OF STANDARDS ON ELECTRICITY PRICES AND ASSOCIATED 

BENEFITS FOR CONSUMERS ................................................................................. 14-13

14.4.1 Impact on Electricity Prices ......................................................................................... 14-13

14.4.2 Impact of Changes in Electricity Price on Electricity Users ........................................ 14-15

14.4.3 Discussion of Savings in Electricity Expenditures ...................................................... 14-16

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 AEO 2012 Reference Case Forecast .................................................................. 14-3

Table 14.3.2 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ...................... 14-4

Table 14.3.3 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ...................... 14-4

Table 14.3.4 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ...................... 14-5

Table 14.3.5 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ...................... 14-5

Table 14.3.6 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast ...................... 14-6

Table 14.3.7 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast ...................... 14-6

Table 14.3.8 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast ...................... 14-7

Table 14.3.9 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ............ 14-7

Table 14.3.10 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ............ 14-8

Table 14.3.11 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ............ 14-8

Table 14.3.12 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ............ 14-9

Table 14.3.13 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast ............ 14-9

Table 14.3.14 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast .......... 14-10

Table 14.3.15 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast .... 14-10

Table 14.3.16 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast .... 14-11

Table 14.3.17 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast .... 14-11

Table 14.3.18 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast .... 14-12

Table 14.3.19 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast .... 14-12

Table 14.3.20 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2045 Under Transformer 

Trial Standard Levels ....................................................................................... 14-13

Table 14.4.1 Cumulative NPV of the Economy-Wide Savings in Electricity 

Expenditures Due to the Projected Decline in Electricity Prices Resulting 

from the Proposed Standards for Transformers* ............................................. 14-16
14-ii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 14.4.1 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended Transformer 

Energy Conservation Standard ........................................................................ 14-14

Figure 14.4.2 Effect of Proposed Transformer Energy Conservation Standard on 

Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users) ...................................................... 14-15
14-1 

CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of its amended standard levels on the electric utility industry using 

a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System 

(NEMS).a

 NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectored, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy 

sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce an energy forecast for the United States, the 

Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The AEO for 2012 (AEO2012) forecasts energy supply and demand 

through 2040. 1

 DOE used a variant of this model, referred to as NEMS-BT,b to account for the 

impacts of transformer energy conservation standards. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a 

comparison between model results for the AEO2012 Reference Case and for cases in which standards 

are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2012. The AEO2012 reference 

case corresponds to medium economic growth.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed capacity and generation 

that result for each trial standard level (TSL) by plant type, as well as changes in residential and 

commercial electricity consumption. 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the 

analysis of energy conservation standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known 

and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the 

comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy 

supply and demand sectors, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy conservation 

standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which 

yield a better estimate of the actual impact of energy conservation standards than considering only 

average effects.

14.2 METHODOLOGY

NEMS provides reference case load shapes for several end uses. The model uses 

predicted growth in demand for each end use to build up a projection of the total electric system 

load growth for each region, which it uses in turn to predict the necessary additions to capacity. 

DOE uses NEMS-BT to account for the implementation of energy conservation standards by 

decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. For transformers all end uses were 

 

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003), 

March, 2003. 

b DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any 

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run 

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT 

was previously called NEMS-BRS.
14-2 

evenly decremented to accurately represent the effect of transformer efficiency on the overall 

household consumption. These decrements are also divided amongst the nine U.S. Census divisions 

based upon the share of energy end use consumption in each division, as given in NEMS.

DOE used the site energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (chapter 10) for 

each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for 

NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger than the highest 

efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to each 

TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher energy use reduction levels in NEMS-BT, representing 

multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual 

changes in generation and capacity due to the standard.

 Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2040, other parts of the energy 

conservation standards analysis extend through the year 2045. It is not feasible to extend the forecast 

period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method 

for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2040. While it might seem reasonable to make simple 

linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be 

contradictory. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond 

the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all 

extrapolations beyond 2040 are simple replications of year 2040 results. To emphasize the 

extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual 

NEMS-BT results.

14.3 RESULTS

This utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for residential and commercial sector 

electricity consumption, total electricity generation by fuel type, and installed electricity generation 

capacity by fuel type. Results are presented in five-year increments through 2040. Beyond 2040, an 

extrapolation through 2045 for each TSL represents a simple replication of the 2040 results. 

The results from the AEO2012 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.3.1. 

 The results for the TSLs for all three types of transformers are presented in Tables 14.3.2 

through 14.3.19. There are seven TSLs for liquid immersed transformers, six TSLs for low-voltage

dry type transformers, and five TSLs for medium-voltage dry type transformers. Each table shows 

forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 14.2, for total U.S. electricity generation 

and installed capacity. 

 The considered transformer TSLs reduce electricity consumption compared to the AEO2012 

Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by the NIA Model for all transformer products at 

any TSL level range from 0.33 to 0.84 percent of total residential and commercial electricity 

consumption in the year 2040. 

 

 
14-3 

Table 14.3.1 AEO 2012 Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,392 1,454 1,533 1,626 1,718 1,831

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 1

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,346 1,431 1,513 1,607 1,699 1,799

Total U.S. Electric Generation 3

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,897 1,924

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,112 1,138 1,267 1,394 1,473

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 964

Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 760 842

Total (TWh)4 4,131 4,312 4,533 4,754 4,968 5,233

Installed Generating Capacity 5

Coal (GW) 286 281 282 284 285 288

Other Fossil (GW)6 467 475 495 525 568 598

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121

Renewables (GW) 163 168 176 184 201 225

Total (GW)7 1,019 1,036 1,068 1,107 1,165 1,232

1

Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2012: Energy Consumption, Residential

2

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2012: Electricity Sales by Sector

3

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2012: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

4

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

5

Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2012: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

6

Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

7

Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells
14-4 

Table 14.3.2 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

Table 14.3.3 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,044 3,230 3,413 3,626 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.803 -1.593 -2.366 -3.107 -3.789 -3.917 -4.394

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,785 1,840 1,896 1,923 Coal (TWh) 0.010 -0.494 -0.803 -0.858 -1.009 -1.073 -1.073 -1.073

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,265 1,392 1,471 Gas (TWh) 0.020 -0.187 -0.676 -1.192 -1.543 -1.453 -1.453 -1.453

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.003 -0.005 -0.007 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.074 -0.073 -0.081 -0.196 -0.860 -0.860 -0.860

Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.116 -0.151 -0.166 -0.274 -0.373 -0.548 -0.548 -0.548

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,311 4,531 4,751 4,964 5,229 Total (TWh) -0.086 -0.910 -1.723 -2.412 -3.128 -3.942 -3.942 -3.942

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.155 -0.146 -0.145 -0.144 -0.148 -0.159 -0.159 -0.159

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.072 -0.157 -0.275 -0.403 -0.599 -0.657 -0.657 -0.657

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.010 -0.010 -0.011 -0.026 -0.110 -0.110 -0.110

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.039 -0.042 -0.052 -0.057 -0.113 -0.185 -0.185 -0.185

Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,107 1,164 1,231 Total (GW) -0.266 -0.355 -0.482 -0.615 -0.886 -1.111 -1.111 -1.111

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,883 3,043 3,228 3,411 3,623 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -1.409 -2.789 -4.133 -5.416 -6.590 -6.809 -7.625

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,785 1,840 1,895 1,922 Coal (TWh) 0.018 -0.868 -1.407 -1.500 -1.759 -1.867 -1.867 -1.867

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,265 1,391 1,470 Gas (TWh) 0.034 -0.328 -1.184 -2.082 -2.689 -2.527 -2.527 -2.527

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.006 -0.009 -0.012 -0.013 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 962 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.130 -0.128 -0.142 -0.342 -1.495 -1.495 -1.495

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.204 -0.266 -0.290 -0.479 -0.651 -0.952 -0.952 -0.952

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,530 4,749 4,962 5,226 Total (TWh) -0.152 -1.597 -3.017 -4.215 -5.453 -6.856 -6.856 -6.856

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.273 -0.256 -0.254 -0.251 -0.259 -0.276 -0.276 -0.276

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.126 -0.276 -0.482 -0.703 -1.043 -1.143 -1.143 -1.143

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.017 -0.017 -0.019 -0.046 -0.191 -0.191 -0.191

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.069 -0.073 -0.091 -0.099 -0.197 -0.322 -0.322 -0.322

Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,106 1,164 1,230 Total (GW) -0.468 -0.623 -0.844 -1.074 -1.544 -1.932 -1.932 -1.932

Extrapolation
14-5 

Table 14.3.4 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast 

Table 14.3.5 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,883 3,043 3,228 3,410 3,623 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -1.509 -2.997 -4.455 -5.857 -7.152 -7.395 -8.303

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,785 1,840 1,895 1,922 Coal (TWh) 0.019 -0.929 -1.511 -1.616 -1.902 -2.026 -2.026 -2.026

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,264 1,391 1,470 Gas (TWh) 0.037 -0.352 -1.272 -2.244 -2.908 -2.743 -2.743 -2.743

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.006 -0.010 -0.013 -0.014 -0.016 -0.016 -0.016

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 962 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.139 -0.137 -0.153 -0.370 -1.622 -1.622 -1.622

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.219 -0.285 -0.311 -0.517 -0.704 -1.034 -1.034 -1.034

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,530 4,749 4,962 5,225 Total (TWh) -0.162 -1.711 -3.242 -4.543 -5.898 -7.440 -7.440 -7.440

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.292 -0.275 -0.273 -0.271 -0.280 -0.300 -0.300 -0.300

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.135 -0.295 -0.518 -0.758 -1.128 -1.240 -1.240 -1.240

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.019 -0.018 -0.021 -0.049 -0.207 -0.207 -0.207

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.073 -0.079 -0.098 -0.107 -0.213 -0.349 -0.349 -0.349

Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,106 1,163 1,230 Total (GW) -0.500 -0.667 -0.907 -1.157 -1.670 -2.096 -2.096 -2.096

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,882 3,041 3,225 3,406 3,617 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.491 -4.992 -7.494 -9.953 -12.279 -12.722 -14.396

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,670 1,784 1,838 1,894 1,921 Coal (TWh) 0.031 -1.534 -2.517 -2.719 -3.232 -3.478 -3.478 -3.478

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,263 1,389 1,468 Gas (TWh) 0.060 -0.580 -2.118 -3.775 -4.943 -4.709 -4.709 -4.709

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.010 -0.017 -0.021 -0.023 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 961 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.230 -0.229 -0.258 -0.629 -2.786 -2.786 -2.786

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.358 -0.470 -0.519 -0.869 -1.196 -1.774 -1.774 -1.774

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,309 4,527 4,746 4,958 5,220 Total (TWh) -0.266 -2.824 -5.400 -7.642 -10.023 -12.774 -12.774 -12.774

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.478 -0.453 -0.454 -0.456 -0.475 -0.515 -0.515 -0.515

Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.222 -0.487 -0.863 -1.275 -1.918 -2.129 -2.129 -2.129

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.031 -0.031 -0.035 -0.084 -0.356 -0.356 -0.356

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.120 -0.130 -0.163 -0.180 -0.361 -0.599 -0.599 -0.599

Total (GW) 1,018 1,035 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,229 Total (GW) -0.820 -1.101 -1.511 -1.947 -2.838 -3.599 -3.599 -3.599

Extrapolation
14-6 

Table 14.3.6 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast 

Table 14.3.7 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,882 3,041 3,225 3,406 3,617 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.476 -4.964 -7.454 -9.903 -12.222 -12.663 -14.334

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,670 1,784 1,838 1,894 1,921 Coal (TWh) 0.030 -1.524 -2.503 -2.704 -3.216 -3.462 -3.462 -3.462

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,263 1,389 1,468 Gas (TWh) 0.060 -0.577 -2.106 -3.755 -4.918 -4.687 -4.687 -4.687

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.010 -0.017 -0.021 -0.023 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 961 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.229 -0.228 -0.256 -0.626 -2.773 -2.773 -2.773

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.356 -0.467 -0.516 -0.864 -1.190 -1.766 -1.766 -1.766

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,309 4,527 4,746 4,958 5,220 Total (TWh) -0.264 -2.807 -5.369 -7.601 -9.972 -12.715 -12.715 -12.715

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.475 -0.451 -0.451 -0.453 -0.473 -0.512 -0.512 -0.512

Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.220 -0.484 -0.858 -1.269 -1.908 -2.119 -2.119 -2.119

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.031 -0.031 -0.035 -0.083 -0.354 -0.354 -0.354

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.120 -0.129 -0.162 -0.179 -0.359 -0.597 -0.597 -0.597

Total (GW) 1,018 1,035 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,229 Total (GW) -0.814 -1.095 -1.502 -1.936 -2.824 -3.582 -3.582 -3.582

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,882 3,040 3,224 3,405 3,616 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.771 -5.600 -8.479 -11.361 -14.139 -14.674 -16.713

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,670 1,783 1,838 1,893 1,920 Coal (TWh) 0.034 -1.706 -2.824 -3.076 -3.689 -4.005 -4.005 -4.005

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,262 1,388 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.066 -0.645 -2.376 -4.272 -5.641 -5.422 -5.422 -5.422

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.012 -0.019 -0.024 -0.026 -0.031 -0.031 -0.031

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 960 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.256 -0.257 -0.292 -0.718 -3.208 -3.208 -3.208

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.396 -0.523 -0.582 -0.983 -1.365 -2.043 -2.043 -2.043

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,309 4,527 4,745 4,956 5,218 Total (TWh) -0.293 -3.141 -6.057 -8.647 -11.440 -14.709 -14.709 -14.709

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.528 -0.504 -0.509 -0.516 -0.543 -0.593 -0.593 -0.593

Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.245 -0.542 -0.968 -1.443 -2.189 -2.451 -2.451 -2.451

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.034 -0.034 -0.040 -0.096 -0.410 -0.410 -0.410

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.133 -0.145 -0.183 -0.204 -0.412 -0.690 -0.690 -0.690

Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,228 Total (GW) -0.906 -1.225 -1.695 -2.203 -3.239 -4.144 -4.144 -4.144

Extrapolation
14-7 

Table 14.3.8 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast

Table 14.3.9 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,881 3,037 3,220 3,399 3,608 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -3.894 -8.009 -12.343 -16.831 -21.321 -22.202 -25.611

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,669 1,782 1,837 1,891 1,918 Coal (TWh) 0.047 -2.398 -4.038 -4.478 -5.465 -6.040 -6.040 -6.040

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,134 1,260 1,386 1,465 Gas (TWh) 0.092 -0.907 -3.398 -6.218 -8.358 -8.177 -8.177 -8.177

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.003 -0.016 -0.027 -0.035 -0.039 -0.046 -0.046 -0.046

Nuclear (TWh) 830 886 917 914 886 959 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.359 -0.367 -0.424 -1.064 -4.837 -4.837 -4.837

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 839 Renewables (TWh) -0.549 -0.734 -0.832 -1.431 -2.022 -3.081 -3.081 -3.081

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,307 4,524 4,741 4,951 5,211 Total (TWh) -0.407 -4.415 -8.663 -12.587 -16.948 -22.181 -22.181 -22.181

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 284 287 Coal (GW) -0.732 -0.709 -0.728 -0.751 -0.804 -0.894 -0.894 -0.894

Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 523 565 595 Other Fossil (GW) -0.339 -0.761 -1.385 -2.101 -3.243 -3.697 -3.697 -3.697

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.048 -0.049 -0.058 -0.142 -0.618 -0.618 -0.618

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 224 Renewables (GW) -0.184 -0.203 -0.261 -0.297 -0.611 -1.041 -1.041 -1.041

Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,065 1,104 1,160 1,226 Total (GW) -1.255 -1.722 -2.424 -3.206 -4.799 -6.249 -6.249 -6.249

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,883 3,042 3,228 3,410 3,622 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -1.532 -3.092 -4.664 -6.222 -7.702 -7.985 -9.054

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,785 1,839 1,895 1,922 Coal (TWh) 0.019 -0.944 -1.559 -1.692 -2.020 -2.182 -2.182 -2.182

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,264 1,391 1,470 Gas (TWh) 0.037 -0.357 -1.312 -2.350 -3.090 -2.954 -2.954 -2.954

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.006 -0.010 -0.013 -0.015 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 962 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.141 -0.142 -0.160 -0.393 -1.747 -1.747 -1.747

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.219 -0.289 -0.321 -0.541 -0.748 -1.113 -1.113 -1.113

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,529 4,749 4,961 5,225 Total (TWh) -0.162 -1.737 -3.345 -4.756 -6.266 -8.013 -8.013 -8.013

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.292 -0.279 -0.281 -0.284 -0.297 -0.323 -0.323 -0.323

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 524 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.135 -0.300 -0.535 -0.794 -1.199 -1.335 -1.335 -1.335

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.019 -0.019 -0.022 -0.052 -0.223 -0.223 -0.223

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.073 -0.080 -0.101 -0.112 -0.226 -0.376 -0.376 -0.376

Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,106 1,163 1,230 Total (GW) -0.500 -0.677 -0.936 -1.212 -1.774 -2.257 -2.257 -2.257

Extrapolation
14-8 

Table 14.3.10 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

Table 14.3.11 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,883 3,042 3,227 3,410 3,621 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -1.637 -3.304 -4.983 -6.647 -8.228 -8.530 -9.672

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,670 1,785 1,839 1,895 1,922 Coal (TWh) 0.020 -1.008 -1.666 -1.808 -2.158 -2.331 -2.331 -2.331

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,264 1,391 1,470 Gas (TWh) 0.039 -0.381 -1.402 -2.510 -3.301 -3.155 -3.155 -3.155

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.007 -0.011 -0.014 -0.015 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 962 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.151 -0.152 -0.171 -0.420 -1.867 -1.867 -1.867

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.234 -0.309 -0.343 -0.578 -0.799 -1.189 -1.189 -1.189

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,529 4,748 4,961 5,224 Total (TWh) -0.173 -1.856 -3.573 -5.081 -6.693 -8.560 -8.560 -8.560

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.312 -0.298 -0.300 -0.303 -0.317 -0.345 -0.345 -0.345

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 524 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.144 -0.320 -0.571 -0.848 -1.281 -1.427 -1.427 -1.427

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.020 -0.020 -0.023 -0.056 -0.239 -0.239 -0.239

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.078 -0.085 -0.108 -0.120 -0.241 -0.402 -0.402 -0.402

Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,106 1,163 1,230 Total (GW) -0.534 -0.724 -1.000 -1.294 -1.895 -2.412 -2.412 -2.412

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,882 3,041 3,226 3,408 3,619 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.056 -4.150 -6.259 -8.350 -10.336 -10.715 -12.150

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,670 1,784 1,839 1,894 1,921 Coal (TWh) 0.025 -1.266 -2.093 -2.271 -2.711 -2.928 -2.928 -2.928

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,263 1,390 1,469 Gas (TWh) 0.049 -0.479 -1.761 -3.153 -4.146 -3.964 -3.964 -3.964

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.009 -0.014 -0.018 -0.019 -0.022 -0.022 -0.022

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 961 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.190 -0.190 -0.215 -0.528 -2.345 -2.345 -2.345

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.293 -0.388 -0.431 -0.726 -1.003 -1.494 -1.494 -1.494

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,528 4,747 4,959 5,222 Total (TWh) -0.218 -2.331 -4.489 -6.383 -8.408 -10.753 -10.753 -10.753

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.391 -0.374 -0.377 -0.381 -0.399 -0.433 -0.433 -0.433

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 494 524 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.181 -0.402 -0.717 -1.065 -1.609 -1.792 -1.792 -1.792

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.025 -0.026 -0.029 -0.070 -0.300 -0.300 -0.300

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.099 -0.107 -0.135 -0.151 -0.303 -0.504 -0.504 -0.504

Total (GW) 1,018 1,035 1,066 1,106 1,163 1,229 Total (GW) -0.671 -0.909 -1.256 -1.626 -2.381 -3.029 -3.029 -3.029

Extrapolation
14-9 

Table 14.3.12 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

Table 14.3.13 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,881 3,040 3,223 3,404 3,615 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.966 -5.986 -9.029 -12.045 -14.910 -15.457 -17.527

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,670 1,783 1,838 1,893 1,920 Coal (TWh) 0.036 -1.827 -3.019 -3.276 -3.911 -4.224 -4.224 -4.224

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,135 1,262 1,388 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.071 -0.691 -2.540 -4.549 -5.981 -5.718 -5.718 -5.718

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.012 -0.020 -0.026 -0.028 -0.032 -0.032 -0.032

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 960 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.274 -0.275 -0.310 -0.761 -3.382 -3.382 -3.382

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.423 -0.560 -0.622 -1.047 -1.447 -2.155 -2.155 -2.155

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,308 4,526 4,744 4,955 5,217 Total (TWh) -0.314 -3.363 -6.475 -9.207 -12.129 -15.511 -15.511 -15.511

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 287 Coal (GW) -0.565 -0.540 -0.545 -0.549 -0.575 -0.625 -0.625 -0.625

Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.262 -0.580 -1.035 -1.537 -2.321 -2.585 -2.585 -2.585

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.037 -0.037 -0.042 -0.101 -0.432 -0.432 -0.432

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.142 -0.155 -0.195 -0.217 -0.437 -0.728 -0.728 -0.728

Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,228 Total (GW) -0.969 -1.311 -1.812 -2.346 -3.434 -4.370 -4.370 -4.370

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,881 3,039 3,223 3,404 3,615 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -3.014 -6.083 -9.175 -12.239 -15.151 -15.706 -17.810

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,670 1,783 1,838 1,893 1,920 Coal (TWh) 0.037 -1.856 -3.067 -3.329 -3.974 -4.292 -4.292 -4.292

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,135 1,262 1,388 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.072 -0.702 -2.581 -4.622 -6.078 -5.810 -5.810 -5.810

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.013 -0.020 -0.026 -0.029 -0.033 -0.033 -0.033

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 960 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.278 -0.279 -0.315 -0.773 -3.437 -3.437 -3.437

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.430 -0.569 -0.632 -1.064 -1.471 -2.189 -2.189 -2.189

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,308 4,526 4,744 4,955 5,217 Total (TWh) -0.319 -3.417 -6.580 -9.356 -12.324 -15.762 -15.762 -15.762

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 287 Coal (GW) -0.574 -0.549 -0.553 -0.558 -0.584 -0.635 -0.635 -0.635

Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.266 -0.589 -1.052 -1.561 -2.358 -2.627 -2.627 -2.627

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.037 -0.037 -0.043 -0.103 -0.439 -0.439 -0.439

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.144 -0.157 -0.199 -0.221 -0.444 -0.740 -0.740 -0.740

Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,228 Total (GW) -0.984 -1.333 -1.841 -2.383 -3.490 -4.441 -4.441 -4.441

Extrapolation
14-10

Table 14.3.14 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

Table 14.3.15 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,881 3,039 3,223 3,403 3,613 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -3.234 -6.526 -9.843 -13.130 -16.254 -16.850 -19.106

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,670 1,783 1,838 1,893 1,919 Coal (TWh) 0.040 -1.991 -3.291 -3.571 -4.263 -4.604 -4.604 -4.604

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,135 1,262 1,387 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.078 -0.753 -2.769 -4.958 -6.520 -6.233 -6.233 -6.233

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.013 -0.022 -0.028 -0.031 -0.035 -0.035 -0.035

Nuclear (TWh) 830 886 917 914 886 960 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.299 -0.299 -0.338 -0.830 -3.687 -3.687 -3.687

Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.461 -0.610 -0.678 -1.141 -1.578 -2.349 -2.349 -2.349

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,308 4,526 4,743 4,954 5,216 Total (TWh) -0.342 -3.666 -7.059 -10.037 -13.222 -16.909 -16.909 -16.909

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 287 Coal (GW) -0.615 -0.589 -0.594 -0.599 -0.627 -0.681 -0.681 -0.681

Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.285 -0.632 -1.128 -1.675 -2.530 -2.818 -2.818 -2.818

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.040 -0.040 -0.046 -0.110 -0.471 -0.471 -0.471

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.155 -0.169 -0.213 -0.237 -0.477 -0.793 -0.793 -0.793

Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,066 1,105 1,161 1,228 Total (GW) -1.056 -1.430 -1.975 -2.557 -3.744 -4.764 -4.764 -4.764

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,045 3,232 3,416 3,629 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.098 -0.198 -0.299 -0.399 -0.493 -0.511 -0.580

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,897 1,924 Coal (TWh) 0.001 -0.060 -0.100 -0.108 -0.129 -0.140 -0.140 -0.140

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,138 1,266 1,394 1,473 Gas (TWh) 0.002 -0.023 -0.084 -0.151 -0.198 -0.189 -0.189 -0.189

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.009 -0.009 -0.010 -0.025 -0.112 -0.112 -0.112

Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 760 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.014 -0.019 -0.021 -0.035 -0.048 -0.071 -0.071 -0.071

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,312 4,533 4,753 4,967 5,232 Total (TWh) -0.010 -0.111 -0.214 -0.305 -0.401 -0.513 -0.513 -0.513

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.019 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 -0.019 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.009 -0.019 -0.034 -0.051 -0.077 -0.086 -0.086 -0.086

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.003 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014

Renewables (GW) 163 168 176 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.005 -0.005 -0.006 -0.007 -0.014 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024

Total (GW) 1,019 1,036 1,068 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.032 -0.043 -0.060 -0.078 -0.114 -0.145 -0.145 -0.145

Extrapolation
14-11

Table 14.3.16 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

Table 14.3.17 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,045 3,232 3,416 3,629 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.185 -0.372 -0.562 -0.749 -0.927 -0.961 -1.090

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,897 1,924 Coal (TWh) 0.002 -0.114 -0.188 -0.204 -0.243 -0.263 -0.263 -0.263

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,138 1,266 1,394 1,472 Gas (TWh) 0.004 -0.043 -0.158 -0.283 -0.372 -0.356 -0.356 -0.356

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.017 -0.017 -0.019 -0.047 -0.210 -0.210 -0.210

Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.026 -0.035 -0.039 -0.065 -0.090 -0.134 -0.134 -0.134

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,312 4,532 4,753 4,967 5,232 Total (TWh) -0.020 -0.209 -0.403 -0.573 -0.754 -0.965 -0.965 -0.965

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.035 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -0.036 -0.039 -0.039 -0.039

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.016 -0.036 -0.064 -0.096 -0.144 -0.161 -0.161 -0.161

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.006 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.009 -0.010 -0.012 -0.014 -0.027 -0.045 -0.045 -0.045

Total (GW) 1,019 1,036 1,067 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.060 -0.082 -0.113 -0.146 -0.214 -0.272 -0.272 -0.272

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,045 3,231 3,415 3,628 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.357 -0.721 -1.087 -1.451 -1.796 -1.862 -2.111

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,896 1,924 Coal (TWh) 0.004 -0.220 -0.364 -0.395 -0.471 -0.509 -0.509 -0.509

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,138 1,266 1,393 1,472 Gas (TWh) 0.009 -0.083 -0.306 -0.548 -0.720 -0.689 -0.689 -0.689

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.033 -0.033 -0.037 -0.092 -0.407 -0.407 -0.407

Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.051 -0.067 -0.075 -0.126 -0.174 -0.259 -0.259 -0.259

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,311 4,532 4,752 4,966 5,231 Total (TWh) -0.038 -0.405 -0.780 -1.109 -1.461 -1.868 -1.868 -1.868

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.068 -0.065 -0.066 -0.066 -0.069 -0.075 -0.075 -0.075

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.032 -0.070 -0.125 -0.185 -0.279 -0.311 -0.311 -0.311

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.012 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.017 -0.019 -0.024 -0.026 -0.053 -0.088 -0.088 -0.088

Total (GW) 1,019 1,036 1,067 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.117 -0.158 -0.218 -0.282 -0.414 -0.526 -0.526 -0.526

Extrapolation
14-12

Table 14.3.18 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

Table 14.3.19 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,045 3,231 3,415 3,628 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.357 -0.721 -1.087 -1.451 -1.796 -1.862 -2.111

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,896 1,924 Coal (TWh) 0.004 -0.220 -0.364 -0.395 -0.471 -0.509 -0.509 -0.509

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,138 1,266 1,393 1,472 Gas (TWh) 0.009 -0.083 -0.306 -0.548 -0.720 -0.689 -0.689 -0.689

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.033 -0.033 -0.037 -0.092 -0.407 -0.407 -0.407

Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.051 -0.067 -0.075 -0.126 -0.174 -0.260 -0.260 -0.260

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,311 4,532 4,752 4,966 5,231 Total (TWh) -0.038 -0.405 -0.780 -1.109 -1.461 -1.868 -1.868 -1.868

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.068 -0.065 -0.066 -0.066 -0.069 -0.075 -0.075 -0.075

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.032 -0.070 -0.125 -0.185 -0.279 -0.311 -0.311 -0.311

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.012 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.017 -0.019 -0.024 -0.026 -0.053 -0.088 -0.088 -0.088

Total (GW) 1,019 1,036 1,067 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.117 -0.158 -0.218 -0.282 -0.414 -0.526 -0.526 -0.526

Extrapolation

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045

Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,044 3,231 3,414 3,627 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.538 -1.085 -1.637 -2.184 -2.703 -2.803 -3.178

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,896 1,923 Coal (TWh) 0.007 -0.331 -0.547 -0.594 -0.709 -0.766 -0.766 -0.766

Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,266 1,393 1,472 Gas (TWh) 0.013 -0.125 -0.461 -0.825 -1.084 -1.037 -1.037 -1.037

Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006

Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.050 -0.050 -0.056 -0.138 -0.613 -0.613 -0.613

Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.077 -0.101 -0.113 -0.190 -0.262 -0.391 -0.391 -0.391

Total (TWh) 4,131 4,311 4,532 4,752 4,965 5,230 Total (TWh) -0.057 -0.610 -1.174 -1.669 -2.199 -2.812 -2.812 -2.812

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.102 -0.098 -0.099 -0.100 -0.104 -0.113 -0.113 -0.113

Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.047 -0.105 -0.188 -0.279 -0.421 -0.469 -0.469 -0.469

Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.007 -0.007 -0.008 -0.018 -0.078 -0.078 -0.078

Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.026 -0.028 -0.035 -0.039 -0.079 -0.132 -0.132 -0.132

Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.176 -0.238 -0.329 -0.425 -0.623 -0.792 -0.792 -0.792

Extrapolation
14-13

Table 14.3.20 presents the estimated reduction in electricity generating capacity in 2045

for the TSLs that DOE considered in this rulemaking. 

Table 14.3.20 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2045 Under Transformer Trial 

Standard Levels

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6 TSL 7

Liquid Immersed

Gigawatts

1.11 1.93 2.10 3.60 3.58 4.14 6.25

Low Voltage Dry Type 2.26 2.41 3.03 4.37 4.44 4.76

Medium Voltage Dry Type 0.145 0.272 0.526 0.526 0.792

Total 3.51 4.61 5.65 8.50 8.82 8.91 6.25

14.4 IMPACT OF STANDARDS ON ELECTRICITY PRICES AND ASSOCIATED 

BENEFITS FOR CONSUMERS

 Using the framework of the utility impact analysis, DOE analyzed the potential impact on 

electricity prices resulting from energy conservation standards for transformers. Associated 

benefits for all electricity users in all sectors of the economy are then derived from these price 

impacts.

DOE’s analysis of energy price impacts used NEMS-BT in a similar manner as described 

in section 14.2. Like other widely-used energy-economic models, NEMS uses elasticities to 

estimate the energy price change that would result from a change (increase or decrease) in 

energy demand. The elasticity of price to a decrease in demand is the “inverse price elasticity.” 

The calculated inverse price elasticity based on NEMS-BT simulations differs throughout the 

forecast period in response to the dynamics of supply and demand for electricity. 

14.4.1 Impact on Electricity Prices

DOE analyzed the electricity price effect of energy conservation standards for all three 

types of transformers considered in this rulemaking. After generating results using higher 

decrements to energy consumption, a regressed interpolation toward the origin derived the price 

effects associated with the energy savings of the TSLs. Results were then scaled to the 

appropriate TSL; the proposed standard for each transformer type are TSL 1 for liquid immersed 

type, TSL 1 for low-voltage dry-type, and TSL 2 for medium-voltage dry-type. The electricity 

price impacts from all three types of transformers were aggregated into a single impact.

Figure 14.4.1 shows the annual change in U.S. electricity sales for the proposed

standards, relative to the base case which involves no new standards. 
14-14

Figure 14.4.1 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended

Transformer Energy Conservation Standard 

 Figure 14.4.2 shows the annual change in average U.S. price for electricity, relative to the 

Reference case, projected to result from the proposed standards. The price reduction averages 

0.002 cents per kWh (in 2012$), or a price reduction of 0.02 percent, over the period from 2016 

through 2040. 

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

TWh

Change in Electricity Sales for Distribution Transformers

Proposed Standards
14-15

Figure 14.4.2 Effect of Proposed Transformer Energy Conservation 

Standard on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users) 

14.4.2 Impact of Changes in Electricity Price on Electricity Users

Using the estimated electricity price impacts, DOE calculated the nominal savings in total 

electricity expenditures in each year by multiplying the annual change in the average-user price 

for electricity by the total annual U.S. electricity sales forecast by NEMS, adjusted for the impact 

of the standards. The proposed standards would continue to reduce demand for electricity after 

2040 (which is the last year in the NEMS forecast). DOE’s estimate for 2041–2045 (the period 

used to estimate the NPV of the national consumer benefits from proposed standards) multiplied 

the average electricity price reduction in 2016–2040 by estimated total annual electricity sales in

2041–2045.c DOE then discounted the stream of reduced expenditures to calculate a NPV.

Table 14.4.1 shows the calculated NPV of the economy-wide savings in electricity 

expenditures for each considered TSL at 3-percent and 7-percent discount rates. The need to 

 

c The estimation of electricity sales after 2040 uses the average annual growth rate in 2036-2040 of total U.S. 

electricity sales forecasted by NEMS. This forecast includes the impact of the standards.

-0.010

-0.008

-0.006

-0.004

-0.002

0.000

0.002

0.004

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

2012 Cents/kWh

Change in Electricity Prices for Distribution 

Transformers

Proposed Standards
14-16

extrapolate price effects and electricity sales beyond 2040 suggests that one should interpret the 

post-2040 results as a rough indication of the benefits to electricity users in the post-2040 period. 

Table 14.4.1 Cumulative NPV of the Economy-Wide Savings in Electricity Expenditures 

Due to the Projected Decline in Electricity Prices Resulting from the 

Proposed Standards for Transformers* 

Discount Rate Transformers

(billion $2012)

3 percent 1.382

7 percent 0.398

* Impacts for units sold from 2016 to 2045

14.4.3 Discussion of Savings in Electricity Expenditures

Although the aggregate benefits for all electricity users are potentially large, there may be 

negative effects on the actors involved in electricity supply. The electric power industry is a 

complex mix of power plant providers, fuel suppliers, electricity generators, and electricity 

distributors. While the distribution of electricity is regulated everywhere, the institutional 

structure of the power sector varies, and has changed over time. For these reasons, an assessment

of impacts on the actors involved in electricity supply from reduction in electricity demand 

associated with energy conservation standards is beyond the scope of this rulemaking. 

In considering the potential benefits to electricity users, DOE takes under advisement the 

provided by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to Federal agencies on the 

development of regulatory analysis (OMB Circular A-4 (Sept. 17, 2003), section E, “Identifying 

and Measuring Benefits and Costs”). Specifically, at page 38, Circular A-4 instructs that 

transfers should be excluded from the estimates of the benefits and costs of a regulation. DOE is 

continuing to investigate the extent to which change in electricity prices projected to result from 

standards represents a net gain to society. 
14-17

REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference Case 

Service Report, 2012. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2012). 

<http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/>