United States General Accounting Office General Government Division

Washington, D.C. 20548

Page 1 GAO/GGD-00-127R Short- and Long-Form Response Rates

B-285274

June 7, 2000

The Honorable Dan Miller

Chairman, Subcommittee on the Census

Committee on Government Reform

House of Representatives

Subject: 2000 Census: Information on Short- and Long-Form Response Rates

Dear Mr. Chairman:

This letter responds to your request for information on response rates for short- and longform questionnaires in the (1) 2000 Census, (2) 1998 Census Dress Rehearsal, (3) 1990

Census, and (4) 1988 Census Dress Rehearsal. Our information is based on historical data

and 2000 Census preliminary response rates from the Bureau of the Census and is contained

in the enclosure.

On May 17, 2000, we requested comments on a draft of this letter from the Secretary of

Commerce. However, comments were not provided in time to be included in this letter. We

performed our work in April and May, 2000, in Washington, D.C., in accordance with

generally accepted government auditing standards.

We are sending copies of this letter to Representative Carolyn B. Maloney, Ranking Minority

Member of this Subcommittee; the Honorable William M. Daley, Secretary of Commerce; and

the Honorable Kenneth Prewitt, Director of the Bureau of the Census. Copies will be made

available to others on request. If you have any questions concerning this letter, please

contact me at (202) 512-8676.

Sincerely yours,

J. Christopher Mihm

Associate Director, Federal Management

 and Workforce Issues

Enclosure
Enclosure 

Short- and Long-Form Response and Return

Rates

Page 2 GAO/GGD-00-127R Short- and Long-Form Response Rates

The questionnaire response rate provides an indication of the scope of the

Bureau’s field follow-up operation with nonresponding households. The

response rate is defined as the percentage of all forms mailed or left by

enumerators that are completed and mailed back by respondents.1

Although response rate data include housing units that are later identified

as vacant, uninhabitable, or nonexistent during nonresponse follow-up,

such data provide a general indication of the level of public cooperation

close to Census Day.

During the 1990 and 2000 Census cycles, questionnaire response rates

were higher for the short-form questionnaire than for the long-form

questionnaire. However, as shown in table 1, the gap between the two

rates has generally widened over time. For example, the differential

between the short- and long-form response rates ranged from 5.1

percentage points to 8.7 percentage points during the 1988 Dress Rehearsal

for the 1990 Census. A decade later, during the Dress Rehearsal for the

2000 Census, the differential ranged from 8.2 percentage points to 14.7

percentage points. For the 2000 Census, preliminary Bureau data show

that, continuing this trend, the response rate differential for the 2000

Census is 12.5 percentage points—over twice that of the 1990 Census.

Census or test Short form Long form

Percentage

point

differential

2000 Census (preliminary) a66.6% 54.1% 12.5

1998 Dress Rehearsalb

 South Carolina 55.4 43.7 11.7

 Sacramento 55.4 40.7 14.7

 Menominee 40.6 32.4 8.2

1990 Census 66.0 60.0 6.0

1988 Dress Rehearsal

 St. Louis City 50.3 44.4 5.9

 East Central Missouri 57.7 52.6 5.1

 Eastern Washington 56.5 47.8 8.7

a

Final data are not yet available.

b

The 1998 Dress Rehearsal was conducted in Sacramento, CA; 11 counties in the Columbia, SC,

area; and Menominee County, WI, including the Menominee Indian Reservation.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

 

1

 For the 2000 Census, the Bureau used what it refers to as an “initial response rate” to provide a

measure of the scope of the field follow-up operation with nonresponding households. This initial rate

is defined as the percentage of all questionnaires that were completed and returned by April 18, 2000.

The rate included the number of questionnaires that were mailed back, transmitted via the Internet, or

completed over the telephone through the Bureau’s Telephone Questionnaire Assistance program. It

also included “Be Counted Forms” that could be matched to a specific census identification number.

Short- and Long-Form

Response Rate

Differentials Have

Been Increasing

Table 1: Short- and Long-Form

Questionnaire Response Rates, by

Census or Test
Enclosure

Short- and Long-Form Mail Response and Mail Return Rates

Page 3 GAO/GGD-00-127R Short- and Long-Form Response Rates

As shown in table 2, for the 2000 Census, the Bureau had anticipated a 6.2

percentage point response rate differential between the short and long

forms. However, the actual difference grew to 12.5 percentage points

because the response rate to the short form was higher than anticipated,

while the response rate to the long form was somewhat lower than

anticipated.

Response rate Short form Long form

Percentage

point

differential

Anticipated 62.1% 55.9% 6.2

Actual a 66.6 54.1 12.5

Difference between anticipated

 and actual

4.5 (1.8) 6.3

a

Final data are not yet available.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

After the 1990 Census, the Bureau expected a more difficult time obtaining

public cooperation in 2000 because of many factors, including concerns

about privacy, lack of confidence in civic institutions, non-English

speaking immigrants, and illiteracy rates. In response, the Bureau took

several actions designed to boost response rates—including developing

streamlined and simplified questionnaires, a paid advertising campaign,

and partnerships with local governments and other organizations. The

overall (short and long form) initial response rate for 2000 was 65

percent—about what it was in 1990 and 4 percentage points above what

the Bureau had anticipated. Nevertheless, the 1990 experience, the 1998

Dress Rehearsal results, and other demographic and societal trends that

we, and the Bureau, have often noted throughout the decade suggested

that there likely would continue to be a significant, and perhaps growing,

short- and long-form questionnaire differential mail response rate for the

2000 Census.

As shown in table 3, short- and long-form differential mail return rates

have followed a similar pattern to differential response rates—that is,

increasing over time. The mail return rate is defined as the percentage of

forms completed and returned for occupied housing units. Therefore, the

rate is considered the more precise measure of public cooperation with the

census and is calculated after the census is completed. Return rates for

the 2000 Census are not yet available.

Table 2: Anticipated and Actual

Response Rates to the 2000 Census

Short- and Long-Form Questionnaires
Enclosure

Short- and Long-Form Mail Response and Mail Return Rates

Page 4 GAO/GGD-00-127R Short- and Long-Form Response Rates

Census or test Short form Long form

Percentage

point

differential

2000 Census N/A N/A N/A

1998 Dress Rehearsal:

 South Carolina 64.7% 51.9% 12.8

 Sacramento 63.1 47.7 15.4

 Menominee 59.1 48.3 10.8

1990 Census 74.9 70.4 4.5

1988 Dress Rehearsal:

 St. Louis City 62.4 56.6 5.8

 East Central Missouri 73.4 69.2 4.2

 Eastern Washington 64.0 54.2 9.8

Legend: N/A = Not available

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

During the 1998 Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau mailed a second,

“replacement” questionnaire to all housing units located in

mailout/mailback areas in South Carolina and Sacramento. The Bureau

hoped that the second questionnaire would help improve the response

rate.2

 The initial forms were mailed between March 28 and 31, 1998.

Replacement forms were mailed between April 15 and 17, 1998. The cutoff

date for determining mail response rates was May 7, 1998. Table 4 shows

that although the response rates in both Dress Rehearsal sites increased

after the replacement mailing, the differential response rates between the

short- and long-form questionnaires did not change significantly—

decreasing by 2.5 percentage points in South Carolina and increasing by

0.1 percentage point in Sacramento.

Short form Long form

Short- and long-form

differential

Dress Rehearsal

site

Initial

response

rate

Response after

replacement

mailing Difference

Initial

response

rate

Response after

replacement

mailing Difference

Before

replacement

mailing

After

replacement

mailing

South Carolina 41.4% 56.8% 15.4 27.7% 45.6% 17.9 13.7 11.2

Sacramento 41.0 55.4 14.4 26.4 40.7 14.3 14.6 14.7

Note: The Bureau did not use a replacement mailing at its Menominee test site and rural sections of

the South Carolina test site. The replacement mailing was used in Sacramento and the house

number/street name area of the South Carolina site.

Source: GAO analysis based on Bureau of the Census data.

 

2

 The Bureau decided against using a replacement questionnaire for the 2000 Census because, among

other reasons, it appeared to have confused the public.

Table 3: Short- and Long-Form

Questionnaire Return Rates, by Census

or Test

Response Rates Before

and After Dress

Rehearsal

Replacement Mailing

Table 4: 1998 Census Dress Rehearsal Short- and Long-Form Response Rates Before and After the Replacement Mailing
Page 5 GAO/GGD-00-127R Short- and Long-Form Response Rates
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