Tom Karier 

Chair 

Washington

Joan M. Dukes 

Vice-Chair 

Oregon

Frank L. Cassidy Jr. 

“Larry” 

Washington 

Jim Kempton 

Idaho 

W. Bill Booth 

Idaho

Melinda S. Eden

Oregon 

Bruce A. Measure 

Montana 

Rhonda Whiting 

Montana

Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts 

July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 2

Background

The Council’s Fifth Power Plan fuel price forecast was developed in the summer of 2004. At 

that time the higher natural gas prices experienced in 2000 through early 2004 were widely 

considered to be a cyclical event, partly related to the West Coast electricity crisis of 2000 and 

2001. Oil prices had increased in 2003 and 2004 but remained around $30 a barrel in the first 

half of 2004. Coal prices had shown little response to the increases in natural gas and oil prices 

by the middle of 2004. 

At the time the Council’s forecast was done, most forecasts of energy prices showed an expected 

decline in prices from those of the recent past. The futures market also showed declining natural 

gas prices through 2008 and early 2009. The Council’s forecasts that showed declines in most 

fuel prices from the early 2000s levels were in line with most other forecasts at the time. 

Although oil and natural gas prices were forecast to decline in the early years of the medium 

forecast, they remained far above the low prices experienced during the 1990s. Expressed in 

2006 dollars, oil prices during the 1990s averaged just under $23 compared to $31 forecast for 

2011 and beyond. Similarly, natural gas prices were forecast to average $4.50 per million Btu 

after 2011 compared to the 1990s average of $2.50. Coal prices were forecast to remain flat in 

2006 dollars, ending a historical decline in real coal prices over the previous two decades. 

In focusing on the medium price forecasts above, it is important to remember that the Council’s 

Power Plan depends on a wide range of fuel price trends, as well as a high level of expected 

volatility in prices. These uncertainties and volatilities are embedded in the risks addressed by 

the Fifth Power Plan. 

Recent Prices and Expectations 

The Council issued its Biennial Monitoring Report on the Fifth Power Plan in January 2007. 

The report noted that the fuel price forecasts in the Fifth Power Plan were low compared to 

recent prices and recent forecasts by organizations that specialize in such analysis. As a result, 

the Council committed to a re-examination of its forecasts and, if necessary, development of a 

revised forecast that would be released as an indication of the Council’s current expectations 

about fuel prices. It was not expected that higher fuel price forecasts would have an effect on the 

near term actions recommended in the action plan, so revised fuel prices would not require an 

early plan revision. However, the Council will be developing a new Power Plan during 2008, 

and the revised forecast could serve as a draft assumption on fuel prices for that work. It is also 

likely that higher fuel prices will translate into higher forecasts of electricity prices and a revised 

forecast will be developed for electricity prices. 

This section provides a summary of recent fuel prices and forecasts compared to the Council’s 

Fifth Plan. Some of the most significant developments affecting energy prices over the years 

since the Council’s Fifth Power Plan was developed include the following: 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 3

• A roughly 25 percent devaluation of the dollar relative to European currency means that 

oil prices that are denominated in dollars would need to increase 25 percent just to 

provide the same income relative to world currencies and costs. That factor could shift 

the OPEC target price from the mid-twenty dollar range into the mid-thirty dollar range. 

• In spite of active natural gas drilling and exploration, the expansion of supplies has been 

disappointing. In particular, the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, which is the 

source of much of the natural gas supply for the Pacific Northwest is now expected by 

many to have declining production in the future. 

• Climate change has become a major concern in the world and many state and federal 

policies have been targeted at reducing consumption of fossil fuels and substituting 

renewable sources of energy and more efficient use of energy. One side effect of this 

policy is to create uncertainty about future fossil fuel markets, which may inhibit 

investment in new traditional supplies and refining capacity. 

• The growth of conflict and terrorist activity in the Middle East has created fear and 

uncertainty about oil and LNG supplies. This fear contributes to volatile and high oil and 

natural gas prices and has delayed needed investment in increased energy production 

capacity in the Middle East, which contains a large share of the world’s petroleum 

reserves. 

• Rapid growth in developing countries, especially China and India, has increased, rather 

suddenly and dramatically, the demand for energy and other basic commodities and 

resources. This rapid increase in demand has occurred faster than world supplies have 

been able to expand, resulting in a world boom in commodity prices. 

• Devastating hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in the summer of 2005 did tremendous 

damage to the oil and natural gas infrastructure in the energy breadbasket of the United 

States and created additional fears about the security and vulnerability of our energy 

supplies. 

The following sections address natural gas, oil, and coal prices and forecasts. Natural gas is the 

key fuel for the Council’s planning because it is an important generation fuel alternative, its price 

dominates the cost of gas-fired generation, and the cost of gas-fired generation sets the market 

price of electricity in most hours. In addition, natural gas competes with electricity for several 

end uses of energy and can therefore affect the projections of electricity demand. Coal-fired 

generation is also an alternative source of electricity, but the fuel cost is a much smaller share of 

the cost of electricity generated from coal. Oil is little used for electricity generation in the 

Northwest, but it does have indirect effects on the price of natural gas, and to a lesser extent on 

coal prices. 

Natural Gas 

Natural gas prices have been volatile since the Fifth Power Plan was developed. Figure 2 

illustrates actual spot prices for natural gas with the range of Council forecasts in 2002 through 

2007. The 2007 price is estimated from historical prices through May combined with futures 

prices for the rest of the year. Prices in 2004 were near the Council’s medium-low forecast, but 

the hurricanes in 2005 sent average price for that year to the high end of the Council’s range. A 

mild winter and lack of serious hurricanes in 2006 put prices back to the middle of the Council’s 

forecast range. However, in spite of strong storage inventories, prices so far in 2007 have 

remained high and if the rest of 2007 developed according to futures market prices would end the 

year near the Council’s high-case forecast. 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 4

Figure 2: Recent Natural Gas Spot Prices at Henry Hub 

Compared to Council Forecast Range 

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

2004 2005 2006 2007

Nominal $/MMBtu at HH

Forecast Range

$5.97 

$8.11 

$6.59 

$7.78 

More recent forecasts made by other organizations show that expectations about future natural 

gas prices are higher than they were when the Council developed its power plan. Figure 3 

compares the Fifth Plan Range of natural gas price forecasts with the U.S. Energy Information 

Administration’s (EIA) reference forecast in its Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO07). The 

symbols without lines illustrate several other forecasts that were compared to the AEO07. 

Figure 3: Fifth Plan Natural Gas Price Forecast Range 

 Compared to Other More Recent Forecasts 

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2006$/MMBtu

AEO07

L

ML

M

MH

H

GII

EVA

EEA

DB

SEER

Altos
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 5

The AEO07 forecast falls between the Council’s medium-high and high forecasts. Until 2010, 

the EIA forecast is close to the Council’s high-case forecast, but it then follows the medium-high 

case until near the end of the Council’s forecast horizon where it moves to between the mediumhigh and high cases. EIA’s forecast still shows falling natural gas prices from recent levels. It is 

also apparent from Figure 3 that most other forecasts are currently even higher than EIA’s. 

Oil 

World oil prices increased dramatically between 2004 and 2005. Unlike natural gas prices, 

which have been volatile, but at least remained in the Council’s forecast range, oil prices 

increased to far above the Council’s high case forecast. Figure 4 illustrates this. In recent 

weeks, oil prices have been above $60 a barrel. 

If oil prices in dollars were set to provide stable revenues in European currency (such as the 

Euro), the 25 percent devaluation in the value of the dollar would imply oil prices about 25 

percent higher when Council’s forecast was completed. With a 25 percent increase, the OPEC 

target range of $22-28 per barrel would become $28 to $35. Thus, OPEC could likely maintain 

prices in this range. However, some argue that even higher prices could now be maintained 

because energy costs are a smaller share of the economy than in the past, so that demand may not 

decrease as quickly in response to higher prices. 

Figure 4: Recent Crude Oil Prices Compared to 

Fifth Plan Forecast Range 

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2004 2005 2006 2007

2006$ Per Barrel

Range

38.05

50.27 51.51

59.01

Actual

Figure 5 illustrates that many recent forecasts expect oil prices to be permanently above $40 a 

barrel in 2006 dollars. The forecasts included in Figure 5 generally cover the range between $40 

and $50 per barrel, with some venturing above $50. As in the case of natural gas, all of the 

forecasts expect a decrease from recent prices. However, the entire range of forecasts lies above 

the Council’s Fifth Power Plan range of between $18 and $35. 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 6

Figure 5: Fifth Plan Natural Crude Oil Price Forecast Range 

Compared to Other More Recent Forecasts 

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

2000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

2006$/Bbl

Low

Medlo

Medium

Medhi

High

AEO07

GII

EVA

EEA

DB

SEER

IEA

STEO

Again, it is interesting to note that when the Fifth Plan Forecasts were developed, EIA and other 

forecasters expected oil prices in the same range as the Council’s plan. 

Coal 

Coal prices adjusted for inflation have decreased historically. Between 1985 and 2001, Western 

mine mouth coal prices decreased at a rate of 5.7 percent a year. The Fifth Power Plan medium 

forecast assumed that Western coal prices would stop declining and remain constant in real 

dollars; that is, prices would increase at the rate of general inflation. The range included declines 

at .8 percent per year in the low case to increases at a rate of .9 percent a year in the high case. 

Since 2001 coal prices have stabilized and shown some small increases. This probably reflected 

the higher prices for natural gas and oil. In 2005 coal prices increased substantially due to rail 

capacity and coal inventory shortages. As shown in Figure 6, Powder River Basin coal prices 

declined substantially in 2006. 

Figure 7 shows the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 forecast for Western mine mouth coal 

prices compared to the Council’s range of forecasts in the Fifth Power Plan. EIA forecasts 

growing real coal prices from 2005 to 2030 at a rate of about 1 percent a year. Their forecasts do 

not drop in 2006 as the market did. Therefore their starting point may be too high. 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 7

Figure 6: Coal Prices since 2003 By Producing Area 

 Source: Energy Information Administration 

Figure 7: Fifth Plan Range of Coal Prices Compared to 

EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

05$/MMBtu

EIA

Council M

Council L

Council ML

Council MH

Council H

In the Fifth Power Plan, the Council used Western mine mouth coal prices as the wholesale cost 

basis from which to build regional coal price forecasts. In reality, the Pacific Northwest coal 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 8

mostly originates in Montana and Wyoming. Coal prices for Wyoming, Montana, and North 

Dakota coal are substantially lower than other Western coal, but Wyoming coal production 

dominates the amount of Western coal production (see Figure 8). The low prices for these states 

partly reflect lower Btu coal deposits, and partly their ease of extraction. For the revised coal 

price forecast, the prices for Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota will be used as the 

wholesale base concept. 

Figure 8: Western Coal Production and Price by State, 2005 

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00

Price $/Ton

1000 Tons

WY

MT

ND

UT

CO NM

Proposed Changes to Fuel Price Forecasts 

The Council is proposing to revise its fuel price forecasts at this time to provide our updated 

views on likely future prices. Many organizations use the Council’s fuel price forecasts and have 

been asking for updates. As noted above, the Council does not expect that revised fuel prices 

would cause a substantial change to the Power Plan and, in particular, to the Action Plan. 

However, updated forecasts will provide a starting point for analyses leading up to the Sixth 

Power Plan. They will also provide a basis for an updated forecast of electricity prices. The 

Council gets many requests for such forecasts and an update seems warranted at this point. 

As part of the update, several changes have been made to the fuel price forecasting model. 

These include refining the Excel model, updating the historical data in the model, and improving 

the documentation of the model and the data used. In addition, the method of forecasting 

regional delivered coal prices has been changed to include the effect of changing diesel fuel 

prices. 

Natural Gas 

The natural gas price forecasts have been revised upwards to reflect the continued strength of 

natural gas prices. Figure 9 compares the Fifth Power Plan forecast of wellhead natural gas 

prices to the revised forecasts, which are shown as the lines with symbols on them. Higher 

natural gas prices are consistent with a higher forecast of world oil prices. Research shows that 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 9

natural gas prices tend to follow oil prices in the long term, although they can remain below or 

above oil prices for significant periods. 

Figure 9: Proposed Revision of Wellhead Natural Gas Price Forecasts 

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2006$/MMBtu

Low

Medlo

Medium

Medhi

High

Low

Medlo

Medium

Medhi

High

The revised forecast range is wider than the range in the Fifth Plan due to relatively larger 

increases of the higher forecast cases. In the Fifth Plan, there was $2.44 between the low and 

high prices in 2025, but in the revised forecast the difference is $4.50. The high case was 

increased by $2.58. Most cases indicate some decrease in prices from recent levels, although the 

higher cases have further price increases before decreasing. However, prices are expected to 

increase again beginning around 2015. 

The medium forecast is higher in the near term than the Fifth Plan high forecast, declines to the 

Fifth Plan medium-high levels by 2015, and then increases to between the medium-high and high 

Fifth Plan levels by 2025. In the long term, it falls between $5.00 and $6.00 per million Btu in 

year 2006 dollars. The high and low cases are considered unlikely to be sustainable as long-term 

trends. Prices between the medium-low and medium-high forecasts are considered a more likely 

range, roughly between $5.00 and $7.00 per million Btu in year 2006 dollars. 

It is important to remember that these forecasts are intended to represent long-term trends. 

Significant volatility around these trends is expected and is modeled in the Council’s portfolio 

analysis. 

Figure 10 shows how the revised forecasts compare to forecasts of other organizations. The 

Energy Information Administration forecast is similar to the revised medium case, although a bit 

lower in the early years. Most other organizations are forecasting somewhat higher prices. 

Based on observed history, there is a tendency for forecasts to be overly reflective of recent 

prices. This perspective would suggest that many forecasts currently could be too high. That 

may very well apply to these revised forecasts as well, since they are based largely on a variety 

of forecasts by organizations that specialize in such analysis. In the case of natural gas prices, 

the revised medium forecast is toward the lower end of other forecasts. 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 10

Figure 10: Forecast Range Compared to Other Forecasts 

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

20042006200820102012201420162018202020222024202620282030

2006$/MMBtu

AEO07

GII

EVA

EEA

DB

SEER

Altos

L

ML

M

MH

H

Table 1 shows the natural gas price forecasts for selected years and growth rates from the most 

recent year of actual prices, 2006. 

Table 1: Revised Wellhead Natural Gas Price Forecasts 

(2006 Dollars Per MMBtu) 

 Low 

Medium 

Low Medium 

Medium 

High High 

2006 6.29 

2010 4.25 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 

2015 3.40 4.25 5.00 6.00 8.00 

2020 3.75 4.50 5.30 6.25 8.25 

2025 4.00 5.00 5.60 6.50 8.50 

2030 4.00 5.25 6.00 7.25 9.00 

Growth 

Rates 

 2006 - 15 -6.61% -4.26% -2.52% -0.52% 2.71% 

 2006 - 30 -1.87% -0.75% -0.20% 0.59% 1.50% 

Wellhead natural gas prices are used to estimate natural gas prices to additional locations and 

sectors. Of particular interest to the Pacific Northwest and the Council’s Power Plan are prices 

delivered to electricity generators in the region. Prices of natural gas delivered from pipelines to 

various locations throughout the West are calculated for purposes of simulating the Western 

electricity markets. In addition, Pacific Northwest retail prices of natural gas delivered to 

industrial, commercial, and residential users are estimated. These additional details appear in the 

appendix tables and the methods used are described in the documentation of the Council fuel 

price forecasting process.1

 

1

 Northwest Power and Conservation Council, Fuel Price Forecasting Model, June 2007. 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 11

Oil Prices 

Nearly all organizations’ forecasts of world crude oil prices have been dramatically increased. 

The proposed revision of the Council’s forecasts reflects this change in expectations. The 

revised forecast range, from the medium-low case to the high case, lies entirely above the 

Council’s Fifth Plan range. The revised price range, like natural gas prices, is both higher and 

wider. 2025 Oil price forecasts in the Fifth Plan for the year 2025 ranged from $18 to $35 per 

barrel compared to the revised range from $30 to $65. All prices are expressed in year 2006 

dollars per barrel unless otherwise noted. In the Council’s forecast, world oil prices are 

measured as the refiner acquisition cost of imported oil. 

The revised forecasts are compared to the Council’s Fifth Power Plan in Figure 11. The revised 

forecasts are shown as lines with symbols. In 2006, oil prices averaged $59. The medium-high 

and high cases envision the possibility of further increases in the next few years, but all but the 

high case assume that prices eventually will fall below $60. In the medium case, prices stabilize 

in the mid $40 area. The most likely range is between $40 and $55. 

Figure 11: Proposed Revision of World Crude Oil Price Forecasts 

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

2006

2008

2010

2012

20142016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2006$/Barrel

Low

Medlo

Medium

Medhi

High

5th L

5th ML

5th M

5th MH

5th H

Extreme volatility is possible, even likely, within these trends. Oil prices are subject to many 

forces that defy prediction. It is quite possible, for example, that oil prices could exceed $100 for 

short periods of time. However, prices that high are likely to cause significant economic 

disruption and reduced demand for oil, which in turn would bring prices back down. Similarly, 

prices could easily fall below the low case for short periods. 

The much higher forecast for world oil prices reflects many factors, including a more pessimistic 

outlook for supplies, reduced expectations for stable conditions in the Middle East, and a 

decreased value of the U.S. dollar. Figure 12 shows that the revised forecast falls in line with the 

recent forecasts of other organizations. When the Council developed its Fifth Power Plan, these 

forecasts fell in line with the lower price forecasts contained in the Fifth Plan. There has been a 

very large change in expectations about future energy prices since the Fifth Power Plan. 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 12

The size of the change in the oil price forecast illustrates something about the nature of such 

forecasts. They are limited by our recent experience and what we understand about recent and 

current conditions. The true uncertainty about the future may be significantly greater than 

reflected in our range of price forecasts. Who can predict, for example, the future of the Middle 

East where much of the world’s oil resources exist? 

Table 2 shows world oil prices for 2006 and forecasts for selected years. Growth rates are shown 

from 2006 to 2015 and 2030. 

Crude oil price forecasts are used to estimate the price of refiners’ residual oil and distillate oil. 

Those prices are, in turn, used to estimate the retail price of residual and distillate oil to 

industrial, commercial, and residential users. That additional detail is available in the appendix 

tables and figures. 

Figure 12: World Oil Price Forecast Range Compared to Other Forecasts 

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10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

20042006200820102012201420162018202020222024202620282030

2006$ Per Barrel

Low

Medlo

Medium

Medhi

High

AEO07

GII

EVA

EEA

DB

SEER

IEA

Table 2: Revised World Oil Price Forecast Range 

(2006 Dollars Per Barrel) 

 Low 

Medium 

Low Medium 

Medium 

High High 

2006 59.01 

2010 35.00 42.00 50.00 58.00 70.00 

2015 32.00 40.00 45.00 52.00 70.00 

2020 32.00 39.00 45.00 50.00 68.00 

2025 30.00 38.00 46.00 52.00 65.00 

2030 30.00 39.30 47.00 55.00 70.00 

Growth 

Rates 

 2006 - 15 -6.57% -4.23% -2.97% -1.40% 1.92% 

 2006 - 30 -2.78% -1.68% -0.94% -0.29% 0.71% 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 13

Coal Price Forecasts 

The approach to coal price forecasts has been changed from the Council’s Fifth Power Plan. The 

first change is to base the wholesale price forecast on Power River Basin coal instead of Western 

mine mouth prices. The logic of that change was described above. The second change in 

method was to include the effects of diesel fuel prices in the delivery cost of coal. Instead of 

simple adders for delivery cost, the model now uses distance, cost per ton mile, and diesel fuel 

prices to determine delivered cost of coal from Wyoming and Montana to the Pacific Northwest 

and other Western markets. 

The forecast of mine mouth coal prices is still based on simple growth rate assumptions. The 

proposed growth rates for the five forecast cases are shown in Table 3 for the Fifth Plan and the 

revised forecast. Prices in medium case for the Fifth Plan were assumed to remain flat. In the 

revision, the prices are projected to grow modestly in real terms. 

Table 3: Assumed Range of Mine Mouth Coal Prices (Constant Dollar % Per Year) 

 Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High 

 

Fifth Plan -0.8 -0.5 0.0 0.5 0.9 

Proposed -0.5 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.4 

Figure 13 shows the range of coal price forecasts compared to the EIA’s 2007 Annual Energy 

Outlook forecast of prices. The future of coal production and prices is vulnerable to climate 

change policies and technology. The same is true, to some extent, for oil and natural gas. If the 

growing reliance on renewable portfolio standards, biofuels, and efficiency improvements 

continues and is successful at displacing much of the growth in more conventional energy 

sources, then demand for coal could be much more limited than reflected in many current 

forecasts of demand and prices. 

Mine mouth coal prices are converted to delivered cost to industrial users and power generators 

in the Pacific Northwest. Delivered costs to other states need to be revised to reflect other 

sources of coal than Montana and Wyoming. That will be done before Western electricity prices 

are re-estimated. 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 14

Figure 13: Proposed Mine Mouth Coal Price Forecast Range Compared to AEO07 

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

2006

20092012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2000$/MMBtu WY/MT

Low

ML

M

MH

High

AEO07

Comparative Fuel Prices 

There is no direct link in the Council’s fuel price forecasts between oil prices and natural gas or 

coal prices. However, it is clear that in the long run oil prices play a significant role in 

determining trends in natural gas prices.2 Therefore, the Council does look at relative oil and 

natural gas prices to judge the reasonableness of the forecasts. 

A very simple comparison is the 6 to 1 ratio of world oil prices in dollars per barrel to Henry 

Hub natural gas prices in dollar per thousand cubic feet. This rule of thumb is based on the Btu 

equivalents of a barrel of oil and a thousand cubic feet of natural gas. A barrel of crude oil 

contains 5.8 million Btus of energy, and a thousand cubic feet of natural gas contains about a 

million Btus of energy. The actual ratio of prices varies substantially over time. The 1990s was 

characterized by ratios near 10. During this time, natural gas was priced substantially below the 

Btu equivalent of crude oil. However, for much of the early 2000s, oil and natural gas traded at 

closer to the Btu equivalent ratio of 6. 

Various forms of competition between natural gas and oil determine their relative prices. 

Analysis in reference 2 by Brown and Yucel found that such “burner tip” competition implies a 

relative price of crude oil to natural gas of about 7. Much of the competition historically has 

been between residual oil and natural gas because crude oil is not used directly in many 

applications. Figure 14 shows a comparison of crude, distillate, and residual oil prices with 

natural gas prices for several recent historical years and as forecast in the revised medium case. 

Figure 15 shows the ratio of crude oil price to natural gas price in each of the 5 forecast cases. 

Both figures indicate a period of high oil price relative to natural gas, although moderated from 

recent ratios. In the long run, the ratio falls to near 7. 

 

2

 See for example, Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel, What Drives Natural Gas Prices?, Federal Reserve 

Bank of Dallas, Research Department Working Paper 0703, February 2007. 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 15

Figure 14: Comparison of Crude Oil, Residual Oil, Distillate Oil 

 And Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices 

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

2006$/MMBtu

World Oil

Residual Oil

Distillate Oil

HH Gas

Figure 15: Ratio of Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil 

 to Henry Hub Price of Natural Gas 

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

$/ Barrel / $/MMBtu

Medium

Low

Medlo

Medhi

High
Appendix 

Wellhead and Retail Natural Gas Prices (2006$/MMBtu) 

Table A-1a: Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

(Medium Case) 

Medium Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

 U.S. 

 Wellhead Residential Commercial Industrial Utility 

Year Price Average Average 

2000 4.18 9.05 7.81 4.90 4.40 

2001 4.44 9.30 8.07 5.16 4.66 

2002 3.22 8.08 6.85 3.93 3.42 

2003 5.21 10.08 8.84 5.94 5.45 

2004 5.67 10.53 9.30 6.41 5.92 

2005 7.39 12.25 11.02 8.14 7.67 

2006 6.29 11.15 9.92 7.03 6.55 

2007 7.40 12.26 11.03 8.15 7.68 

2008 7.00 11.86 10.63 7.75 7.28 

2009 6.50 11.36 10.13 7.24 6.78 

2010 6.00 10.86 9.63 6.74 6.28 

2011 5.50 10.36 9.13 6.23 5.78 

2012 5.25 10.11 8.88 5.98 5.54 

2013 5.15 10.01 8.78 5.88 5.45 

2014 5.00 9.86 8.63 5.73 5.30 

2015 5.00 9.86 8.63 5.73 5.31 

2016 5.06 9.92 8.69 5.79 5.38 

2017 5.12 9.98 8.75 5.85 5.45 

2018 5.18 10.04 8.81 5.91 5.53 

2019 5.24 10.10 8.87 5.97 5.59 

2020 5.30 10.16 8.93 6.03 5.65 

2021 5.36 10.22 8.99 6.09 5.71 

2022 5.42 10.28 9.05 6.15 5.77 

2023 5.48 10.34 9.11 6.21 5.84 

2024 5.54 10.40 9.17 6.27 5.90 

2025 5.60 10.46 9.23 6.33 5.96 

2026 5.68 10.54 9.31 6.41 6.04 

2027 5.76 10.62 9.39 6.49 6.12 

2028 5.84 10.70 9.47 6.57 6.21 

2029 5.92 10.78 9.55 6.66 6.29 

2030 6.00 10.86 9.63 6.74 6.38 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 17

Table A-1b: Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

(Medium-Low Case) 

Low Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

 U.S. 

 Wellhead Residential Commercial Industrial Utility 

Year Price Average Average 

2000 4.18 9.05 7.81 4.90 4.40 

2001 4.44 9.30 8.07 5.16 4.66 

2002 3.22 8.08 6.85 3.93 3.42 

2003 5.21 10.08 8.84 5.94 5.45 

2004 5.67 10.53 9.30 6.41 5.92 

2005 7.39 12.25 11.02 8.14 7.67 

2006 6.29 11.15 9.92 7.03 6.55 

2007 6.50 11.36 10.13 7.24 6.76 

2008 6.00 10.86 9.63 6.74 6.26 

2009 5.00 9.86 8.63 5.73 5.25 

2010 4.25 9.11 7.88 4.97 4.49 

2011 4.06 8.93 7.69 4.78 4.32 

2012 3.89 8.75 7.52 4.60 4.15 

2013 3.72 8.58 7.35 4.43 3.98 

2014 3.56 8.42 7.18 4.27 3.82 

2015 3.40 8.26 7.03 4.11 3.68 

2016 3.47 8.33 7.10 4.18 3.76 

2017 3.54 8.40 7.16 4.25 3.83 

2018 3.61 8.47 7.23 4.32 3.92 

2019 3.68 8.54 7.31 4.39 3.99 

2020 3.75 8.61 7.38 4.47 4.06 

2021 3.80 8.66 7.43 4.52 4.11 

2022 3.85 8.71 7.48 4.57 4.16 

2023 3.90 8.76 7.53 4.62 4.21 

2024 3.95 8.81 7.58 4.67 4.27 

2025 4.00 8.86 7.63 4.72 4.32 

2026 4.00 8.86 7.63 4.72 4.32 

2027 4.00 8.86 7.63 4.72 4.32 

2028 4.00 8.86 7.63 4.72 4.32 

2029 4.00 8.86 7.63 4.72 4.32 

2030 4.00 8.86 7.63 4.72 4.32 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 18

Table A-1c: Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

(Medium-Low Case) 

Medlo Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

 U.S. 

 Wellhead Residential Commercial Industrial Utility 

Year Price Average Average 

2000 4.18 9.05 7.81 4.90 4.40 

2001 4.44 9.30 8.07 5.16 4.66 

2002 3.22 8.08 6.85 3.93 3.42 

2003 5.21 10.08 8.84 5.94 5.45 

2004 5.67 10.53 9.30 6.41 5.92 

2005 7.39 12.25 11.02 8.14 7.67 

2006 6.29 11.15 9.92 7.03 6.55 

2007 7.00 11.86 10.63 7.75 7.27 

2008 6.25 11.11 9.88 6.99 6.51 

2009 5.50 10.36 9.13 6.23 5.76 

2010 5.00 9.86 8.63 5.73 5.26 

2011 4.84 9.70 8.47 5.57 5.11 

2012 4.69 9.55 8.31 5.41 4.96 

2013 4.54 9.40 8.16 5.26 4.82 

2014 4.39 9.25 8.02 5.11 4.68 

2015 4.25 9.11 7.88 4.97 4.55 

2016 4.30 9.16 7.93 5.02 4.61 

2017 4.35 9.21 7.98 5.07 4.66 

2018 4.40 9.26 8.03 5.12 4.73 

2019 4.45 9.31 8.08 5.17 4.78 

2020 4.50 9.36 8.13 5.22 4.83 

2021 4.60 9.46 8.22 5.32 4.93 

2022 4.69 9.56 8.32 5.42 5.03 

2023 4.79 9.66 8.42 5.52 5.13 

2024 4.90 9.76 8.52 5.62 5.24 

2025 5.00 9.86 8.63 5.73 5.34 

2026 5.05 9.91 8.68 5.78 5.39 

2027 5.10 9.96 8.73 5.83 5.45 

2028 5.15 10.01 8.78 5.88 5.50 

2029 5.20 10.06 8.83 5.93 5.55 

2030 5.25 10.11 8.88 5.98 5.60 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 19

Table A-1d: Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

(Medium-High Case) 

Medhi Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

 U.S. 

 Wellhead Residential Commercial Industrial Utility 

Year Price Average Average 

2000 4.18 9.05 7.81 4.90 4.40 

2001 4.44 9.30 8.07 5.16 4.66 

2002 3.22 8.08 6.85 3.93 3.42 

2003 5.21 10.08 8.84 5.94 5.45 

2004 5.67 10.53 9.30 6.41 5.92 

2005 7.39 12.25 11.02 8.14 7.67 

2006 6.29 11.15 9.92 7.03 6.55 

2007 7.80 12.66 11.43 8.56 8.09 

2008 8.00 12.86 11.63 8.76 8.30 

2009 7.50 12.36 11.13 8.25 7.80 

2010 7.00 11.86 10.63 7.75 7.30 

2011 6.79 11.65 10.42 7.53 7.09 

2012 6.58 11.45 10.21 7.33 6.90 

2013 6.38 11.25 10.01 7.12 6.70 

2014 6.19 11.05 9.82 6.93 6.51 

2015 6.00 10.86 9.63 6.74 6.33 

2016 6.05 10.91 9.68 6.79 6.39 

2017 6.10 10.96 9.73 6.84 6.45 

2018 6.15 11.01 9.78 6.89 6.52 

2019 6.20 11.06 9.83 6.94 6.57 

2020 6.25 11.11 9.88 6.99 6.62 

2021 6.30 11.16 9.93 7.04 6.67 

2022 6.35 11.21 9.98 7.09 6.73 

2023 6.40 11.26 10.03 7.14 6.78 

2024 6.45 11.31 10.08 7.19 6.83 

2025 6.50 11.36 10.13 7.24 6.89 

2026 6.64 11.51 10.27 7.39 7.03 

2027 6.79 11.65 10.42 7.54 7.19 

2028 6.94 11.80 10.57 7.69 7.34 

2029 7.09 11.96 10.72 7.84 7.50 

2030 7.25 12.11 10.88 8.00 7.66 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 20

Table A-1e: Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

(High Case) 

High Regional Retail Natural Gas Prices 

 U.S. 

 Wellhead Residential Commercial Industrial Utility 

Year Price Average Average 

2000 4.18 9.05 7.81 4.90 4.40 

2001 4.44 9.30 8.07 5.16 4.66 

2002 3.22 8.08 6.85 3.93 3.42 

2003 5.21 10.08 8.84 5.94 5.45 

2004 5.67 10.53 9.30 6.41 5.92 

2005 7.39 12.25 11.02 8.14 7.67 

2006 6.29 11.15 9.92 7.03 6.55 

2007 8.45 13.31 12.08 9.21 8.75 

2008 9.00 13.86 12.63 9.77 9.32 

2009 8.50 13.36 12.13 9.26 8.82 

2010 8.00 12.86 11.63 8.76 8.32 

2011 8.00 12.86 11.63 8.76 8.33 

2012 8.00 12.86 11.63 8.76 8.34 

2013 8.00 12.86 11.63 8.76 8.35 

2014 8.00 12.86 11.63 8.76 8.36 

2015 8.00 12.86 11.63 8.76 8.38 

2016 8.05 12.91 11.68 8.81 8.44 

2017 8.10 12.96 11.73 8.86 8.49 

2018 8.15 13.01 11.78 8.91 8.56 

2019 8.20 13.06 11.83 8.96 8.61 

2020 8.25 13.11 11.88 9.01 8.67 

2021 8.30 13.16 11.93 9.06 8.72 

2022 8.35 13.21 11.98 9.11 8.77 

2023 8.40 13.26 12.03 9.16 8.83 

2024 8.45 13.31 12.08 9.21 8.88 

2025 8.50 13.36 12.13 9.26 8.93 

2026 8.60 13.46 12.23 9.36 9.04 

2027 8.70 13.56 12.33 9.46 9.14 

2028 8.80 13.66 12.43 9.56 9.24 

2029 8.90 13.76 12.53 9.66 9.35 

2030 9.00 13.86 12.63 9.77 9.46 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 21

Henry Hub and Northwest Natural Gas Prices 

Table A-2a: Natural Gas Prices at Regional Hubs and Incremental Delivered Costs to 

Regional Electric Generators 

(Medium Case) 

Medium 

 Henry Hub AECO Sumas West-Side East-Side 

 Natural Gas Price Price Delivered Delivered 

Year Price 

2000 4.50 3.78 3.92 4.46 4.33 

2001 4.78 4.04 4.17 4.73 4.60 

2002 3.45 2.81 2.96 3.49 3.34 

2003 5.62 4.82 4.94 5.51 5.39 

2004 6.12 5.28 5.40 5.97 5.86 

2005 7.99 7.01 7.11 7.72 7.62 

2006 6.79 5.91 6.02 6.60 6.50 

2007 8.00 7.02 7.12 7.73 7.64 

2008 7.56 6.62 6.72 7.35 7.21 

2009 7.02 6.12 6.23 6.90 6.69 

2010 6.47 5.61 5.73 6.45 6.16 

2011 5.93 5.11 5.23 6.00 5.64 

2012 5.66 4.86 4.98 5.80 5.37 

2013 5.55 4.76 4.88 5.70 5.30 

2014 5.39 4.61 4.73 5.55 5.17 

2015 5.39 4.61 4.73 5.56 5.23 

2016 5.45 4.67 4.79 5.62 5.33 

2017 5.51 4.73 4.85 5.68 5.41 

2018 5.58 4.79 4.91 5.74 5.53 

2019 5.65 4.85 4.97 5.81 5.59 

2020 5.71 4.91 5.03 5.87 5.66 

2021 5.78 4.97 5.09 5.93 5.72 

2022 5.84 5.03 5.15 5.99 5.78 

2023 5.91 5.09 5.21 6.06 5.84 

2024 5.97 5.15 5.27 6.12 5.91 

2025 6.04 5.21 5.33 6.19 5.97 

2026 6.12 5.29 5.41 6.27 6.05 

2027 6.21 5.37 5.48 6.35 6.14 

2028 6.30 5.45 5.56 6.43 6.22 

2029 6.39 5.53 5.65 6.52 6.31 

2030 6.47 5.61 5.73 6.60 6.39 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 22

Table A-2b: Natural Gas Prices at Regional Hubs and Incremental Delivered Costs to 

Regional Electric Generators 

(Low Case) 

Low 

 Henry Hub AECO Sumas West-Side East-Side 

 Natural Gas Price Price Delivered Delivered 

Year Price 

2000 4.50 3.78 3.92 4.46 4.33 

2001 4.78 4.04 4.17 4.73 4.60 

2002 3.45 2.81 2.96 3.49 3.34 

2003 5.62 4.82 4.94 5.51 5.39 

2004 6.12 5.28 5.40 5.97 5.86 

2005 7.99 7.01 7.11 7.72 7.62 

2006 6.79 5.91 6.02 6.60 6.50 

2007 7.02 6.12 6.23 6.81 6.71 

2008 6.47 5.61 5.73 6.33 6.19 

2009 5.39 4.61 4.73 5.38 5.15 

2010 4.57 3.85 3.98 4.67 4.37 

2011 4.37 3.67 3.80 4.54 4.17 

2012 4.18 3.49 3.62 4.42 3.97 

2013 3.99 3.32 3.45 4.25 3.83 

2014 3.81 3.15 3.29 4.08 3.69 

2015 3.65 3.00 3.14 3.92 3.59 

2016 3.72 3.07 3.21 3.99 3.69 

2017 3.79 3.13 3.27 4.06 3.79 

2018 3.87 3.20 3.34 4.13 3.92 

2019 3.95 3.28 3.41 4.20 3.99 

2020 4.03 3.35 3.49 4.28 4.06 

2021 4.08 3.40 3.54 4.32 4.11 

2022 4.13 3.45 3.58 4.37 4.16 

2023 4.19 3.50 3.63 4.42 4.21 

2024 4.24 3.55 3.68 4.47 4.27 

2025 4.30 3.60 3.74 4.53 4.32 

2026 4.30 3.60 3.74 4.53 4.32 

2027 4.30 3.60 3.74 4.52 4.32 

2028 4.30 3.60 3.74 4.52 4.32 

2029 4.30 3.60 3.74 4.52 4.32 

2030 4.30 3.60 3.74 4.52 4.31 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 23

Table A-2c: Natural Gas Prices at Regional Hubs and Incremental Delivered Costs to 

Regional Electric Generators 

(Medium Low Case) 

Medlo 

 Henry Hub AECO Sumas West-Side East-Side 

 Natural Gas Price Price Delivered Delivered 

Year Price 

2000 4.50 3.78 3.92 4.46 4.33 

2001 4.78 4.04 4.17 4.73 4.60 

2002 3.45 2.81 2.96 3.49 3.34 

2003 5.62 4.82 4.94 5.51 5.39 

2004 6.12 5.28 5.40 5.97 5.86 

2005 7.99 7.01 7.11 7.72 7.62 

2006 6.79 5.91 6.02 6.60 6.50 

2007 7.56 6.62 6.72 7.32 7.23 

2008 6.75 5.87 5.98 6.58 6.44 

2009 5.93 5.11 5.23 5.88 5.66 

2010 5.39 4.61 4.73 5.43 5.14 

2011 5.21 4.45 4.57 5.33 4.96 

2012 5.04 4.29 4.42 5.23 4.79 

2013 4.88 4.14 4.27 5.08 4.67 

2014 4.72 3.99 4.12 4.93 4.55 

2015 4.57 3.85 3.98 4.79 4.46 

2016 4.62 3.90 4.03 4.84 4.55 

2017 4.68 3.95 4.08 4.89 4.62 

2018 4.73 4.00 4.13 4.94 4.73 

2019 4.79 4.05 4.18 5.00 4.78 

2020 4.84 4.10 4.23 5.05 4.83 

2021 4.95 4.20 4.33 5.15 4.93 

2022 5.05 4.30 4.43 5.25 5.03 

2023 5.16 4.40 4.53 5.35 5.14 

2024 5.27 4.50 4.63 5.45 5.24 

2025 5.39 4.61 4.73 5.56 5.35 

2026 5.44 4.66 4.78 5.61 5.40 

2027 5.49 4.71 4.83 5.66 5.45 

2028 5.55 4.76 4.88 5.71 5.50 

2029 5.60 4.81 4.93 5.76 5.56 

2030 5.66 4.86 4.98 5.82 5.61 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 24

Table A-2d: Natural Gas Prices at Regional Hubs and Incremental Delivered Costs to 

Regional Electric Generators 

(Medium High Case) 

Medhi 

 Henry Hub AECO Sumas West-Side East-Side 

 Natural Gas Price Price Delivered Delivered 

Year Price 

2000 4.50 3.78 3.92 4.46 4.33 

2001 4.78 4.04 4.17 4.73 4.60 

2002 3.45 2.81 2.96 3.49 3.34 

2003 5.62 4.82 4.94 5.51 5.39 

2004 6.12 5.28 5.40 5.97 5.86 

2005 7.99 7.01 7.11 7.72 7.62 

2006 6.79 5.91 6.02 6.60 6.50 

2007 8.43 7.43 7.52 8.14 8.05 

2008 8.65 7.63 7.72 8.36 8.24 

2009 8.11 7.12 7.22 7.91 7.72 

2010 7.56 6.62 6.72 7.46 7.19 

2011 7.33 6.41 6.51 7.30 6.96 

2012 7.11 6.20 6.31 7.15 6.74 

2013 6.89 6.00 6.11 6.95 6.57 

2014 6.68 5.80 5.91 6.76 6.39 

2015 6.47 5.61 5.73 6.57 6.26 

2016 6.53 5.66 5.78 6.63 6.34 

2017 6.58 5.71 5.83 6.68 6.42 

2018 6.64 5.76 5.88 6.74 6.53 

2019 6.69 5.81 5.93 6.79 6.58 

2020 6.75 5.87 5.98 6.84 6.63 

2021 6.80 5.92 6.03 6.90 6.68 

2022 6.85 5.97 6.07 6.95 6.74 

2023 6.91 6.02 6.12 7.01 6.79 

2024 6.96 6.07 6.17 7.06 6.85 

2025 7.02 6.12 6.23 7.12 6.90 

2026 7.17 6.26 6.37 7.27 7.05 

2027 7.33 6.41 6.51 7.42 7.21 

2028 7.50 6.56 6.66 7.57 7.36 

2029 7.66 6.71 6.82 7.73 7.52 

2030 7.83 6.87 6.97 7.90 7.69 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 25

Table A-2e: Natural Gas Prices at Regional Hubs and Incremental Delivered Costs to 

Regional Electric Generators 

(High Case) 

High 

 Henry Hub AECO Sumas West-Side East-Side 

 Natural Gas Price Price Delivered Delivered 

Year Price 

2000 4.50 3.78 3.92 4.46 4.33 

2001 4.78 4.04 4.17 4.73 4.60 

2002 3.45 2.81 2.96 3.49 3.34 

2003 5.62 4.82 4.94 5.51 5.39 

2004 6.12 5.28 5.40 5.97 5.86 

2005 7.99 7.01 7.11 7.72 7.62 

2006 6.79 5.91 6.02 6.60 6.50 

2007 9.14 8.08 8.17 8.80 8.71 

2008 9.74 8.63 8.71 9.37 9.27 

2009 9.19 8.13 8.22 8.92 8.74 

2010 8.65 7.63 7.72 8.48 8.22 

2011 8.65 7.63 7.72 8.53 8.20 

2012 8.65 7.63 7.72 8.59 8.19 

2013 8.65 7.63 7.72 8.60 8.23 

2014 8.65 7.63 7.72 8.60 8.25 

2015 8.65 7.63 7.72 8.61 8.31 

2016 8.70 7.68 7.77 8.66 8.39 

2017 8.76 7.73 7.82 8.72 8.47 

2018 8.81 7.78 7.87 8.77 8.58 

2019 8.87 7.83 7.92 8.83 8.63 

2020 8.92 7.88 7.97 8.88 8.68 

2021 8.98 7.93 8.02 8.94 8.74 

2022 9.03 7.98 8.07 9.00 8.79 

2023 9.08 8.03 8.12 9.05 8.85 

2024 9.14 8.08 8.17 9.11 8.90 

2025 9.19 8.13 8.22 9.16 8.96 

2026 9.30 8.23 8.31 9.27 9.07 

2027 9.41 8.33 8.41 9.37 9.17 

2028 9.52 8.43 8.51 9.48 9.28 

2029 9.63 8.53 8.61 9.59 9.39 

2030 9.74 8.63 8.71 9.70 9.50 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 26

Retail and Utility Oil Price Forecasts (2006$/MMBtu) 
Table A-3a: World Oil Price and Northwest Delivered Prices to End Use Sectors (Medium 

Medium Industrial Industrial Average Commercial Commercial Average Avera

World Oil Residual Distillate Industrial Residual Distillate Commercial Residen

Year Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Pr

2006$/Barrel 

2000 32.14 4.80 8.84 8.43 4.85 8.36 8.22 11.32001 24.93 3.74 7.45 7.34 3.79 6.97 6.90 9.92 2002 26.41 3.96 7.74 7.44 4.00 7.25 7.16 10.22003 30.22 4.52 8.47 8.24 4.57 7.99 7.89 10.92004 38.07 5.68 9.98 9.75 5.73 9.50 9.39 12.42005 50.29 7.48 12.33 12.07 7.53 11.85 11.73 14.72006 59.01 8.77 14.01 13.73 8.82 13.52 13.39 16.42007 60.00 8.92 14.20 13.92 8.97 13.71 13.58 16.62008 55.00 8.18 13.23 12.97 8.23 12.75 12.63 15.72009 53.00 7.88 12.85 12.59 7.93 12.37 12.24 15.32010 50.00 7.44 12.27 12.02 7.49 11.79 11.67 14.72011 48.96 7.29 12.07 11.82 7.34 11.59 11.47 14.52012 47.94 7.14 11.88 11.62 7.18 11.39 11.28 14.32013 46.94 6.99 11.68 11.43 7.04 11.20 11.09 14.12014 45.96 6.84 11.50 11.25 6.89 11.01 10.90 13.92015 45.00 6.70 11.31 11.07 6.75 10.83 10.72 13.72016 45.00 6.70 11.31 11.07 6.75 10.83 10.72 13.72017 45.00 6.70 11.31 11.07 6.75 10.83 10.72 13.72018 45.00 6.70 11.31 11.07 6.75 10.83 10.72 13.72019 45.00 6.70 11.31 11.07 6.75 10.83 10.72 13.72020 45.00 6.70 11.31 11.07 6.75 10.83 10.72 13.72021 45.20 6.73 11.35 11.10 6.78 10.87 10.75 13.82022 45.40 6.76 11.39 11.14 6.81 10.91 10.79 13.82023 45.60 6.79 11.43 11.18 6.84 10.94 10.83 13.82024 45.80 6.82 11.46 11.22 6.87 10.98 10.87 13.92025 46.00 6.85 11.50 11.26 6.90 11.02 10.91 13.92026 46.20 6.88 11.54 11.29 6.93 11.06 10.94 14.02027 46.40 6.91 11.58 11.33 6.96 11.10 10.98 14.02028 46.60 6.94 11.62 11.37 6.99 11.14 11.02 14.02029 46.80 6.97 11.66 11.41 7.02 11.17 11.06 14.12030 47.00 7.00 11.70 11.45 7.05 11.21 11.10 14.1
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 28

Table A-3b: World Oil Price and Northwest Delivered Prices to End Use Sectors (Low 

Low Industrial Industrial Average Commercial Commercial Average Avera

World Oil Residual Distillate Industrial Residual Distillate Commercial Residen

Year Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Pr

2006$/Barrel 

2000 32.14 4.80 8.84 8.43 4.85 8.36 8.22 11.32001 24.93 3.74 7.45 7.34 3.79 6.97 6.90 9.92 2002 26.41 3.96 7.74 7.44 4.00 7.25 7.16 10.22003 30.22 4.52 8.47 8.24 4.57 7.99 7.89 10.92004 38.07 5.68 9.98 9.75 5.73 9.50 9.39 12.42005 50.29 7.48 12.33 12.07 7.53 11.85 11.73 14.72006 59.01 8.77 14.01 13.73 8.82 13.52 13.39 16.42007 50.00 7.44 12.27 12.02 7.49 11.79 11.67 14.72008 40.00 5.96 10.35 10.12 6.01 9.87 9.76 12.82009 37.00 5.52 9.77 9.55 5.57 9.29 9.19 12.22010 35.00 5.23 9.39 9.17 5.27 8.91 8.80 11.82011 34.38 5.13 9.27 9.05 5.18 8.79 8.69 11.72012 33.77 5.04 9.15 8.93 5.09 8.67 8.57 11.62013 33.17 4.96 9.04 8.82 5.00 8.55 8.45 11.52014 32.58 4.87 8.92 8.71 4.92 8.44 8.34 11.32015 32.00 4.78 8.81 8.60 4.83 8.33 8.23 11.22016 32.00 4.78 8.81 8.60 4.83 8.33 8.23 11.22017 32.00 4.78 8.81 8.60 4.83 8.33 8.23 11.22018 32.00 4.78 8.81 8.60 4.83 8.33 8.23 11.22019 32.00 4.78 8.81 8.60 4.83 8.33 8.23 11.22020 32.00 4.78 8.81 8.60 4.83 8.33 8.23 11.22021 31.59 4.72 8.73 8.52 4.77 8.25 8.15 11.22022 31.18 4.66 8.66 8.44 4.71 8.17 8.08 11.12023 30.78 4.60 8.58 8.37 4.65 8.10 8.00 11.02024 30.39 4.55 8.50 8.29 4.59 8.02 7.92 10.92025 30.00 4.49 8.43 8.22 4.54 7.94 7.85 10.82026 30.00 4.49 8.43 8.22 4.54 7.94 7.85 10.82027 30.00 4.49 8.43 8.22 4.54 7.94 7.85 10.82028 30.00 4.49 8.43 8.22 4.54 7.94 7.85 10.82029 30.00 4.49 8.43 8.22 4.54 7.94 7.85 10.82030 30.00 4.49 8.43 8.22 4.54 7.94 7.85 10.8
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 29

Table A-3c: World Oil Price and Northwest Delivered Prices to End Use Sectors (Medium-L

Medlo Industrial Industrial Average Commercial Commercial Average Avera

World Oil Residual Distillate Industrial Residual Distillate Commercial Residen

Year Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Pr

2006$/Barrel 

2000 32.14 4.80 8.84 8.43 4.85 8.36 8.22 11.32001 24.93 3.74 7.45 7.34 3.79 6.97 6.90 9.92 2002 26.41 3.96 7.74 7.44 4.00 7.25 7.16 10.22003 30.22 4.52 8.47 8.24 4.57 7.99 7.89 10.92004 38.07 5.68 9.98 9.75 5.73 9.50 9.39 12.42005 50.29 7.48 12.33 12.07 7.53 11.85 11.73 14.72006 59.01 8.77 14.01 13.73 8.82 13.52 13.39 16.42007 55.00 8.18 13.23 12.97 8.23 12.75 12.63 15.72008 45.00 6.70 11.31 11.07 6.75 10.83 10.72 13.72009 43.00 6.41 10.93 10.69 6.46 10.44 10.33 13.32010 42.00 6.26 10.73 10.50 6.31 10.25 10.14 13.22011 41.59 6.20 10.66 10.42 6.25 10.17 10.06 13.12012 41.19 6.14 10.58 10.34 6.19 10.10 9.99 13.02013 40.79 6.08 10.50 10.27 6.13 10.02 9.91 12.92014 40.39 6.02 10.43 10.19 6.07 9.94 9.84 12.82015 40.00 5.96 10.35 10.12 6.01 9.87 9.76 12.82016 39.80 5.93 10.31 10.08 5.98 9.83 9.72 12.72017 39.60 5.91 10.27 10.04 5.95 9.79 9.68 12.72018 39.40 5.88 10.23 10.00 5.92 9.75 9.64 12.72019 39.20 5.85 10.20 9.97 5.89 9.71 9.61 12.62020 39.00 5.82 10.16 9.93 5.86 9.67 9.57 12.62021 38.80 5.79 10.12 9.89 5.83 9.64 9.53 12.52022 38.60 5.76 10.08 9.85 5.80 9.60 9.49 12.52023 38.40 5.73 10.04 9.81 5.78 9.56 9.45 12.52024 38.20 5.70 10.00 9.78 5.75 9.52 9.42 12.42025 38.00 5.67 9.97 9.74 5.72 9.48 9.38 12.42026 38.26 5.71 10.01 9.79 5.75 9.53 9.43 12.42027 38.51 5.75 10.06 9.84 5.79 9.58 9.48 12.52028 38.77 5.78 10.11 9.88 5.83 9.63 9.53 12.52029 39.04 5.82 10.16 9.93 5.87 9.68 9.58 12.62030 39.30 5.86 10.22 9.98 5.91 9.73 9.63 12.6
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 30

Table A-3d: World Oil Price and Northwest Delivered Prices to End Use Sectors (Medium-H

Medhi Industrial Industrial Average Commercial Commercial Average Av

World Oil Residual Distillate Industrial Residual Distillate Commercial Res

Year Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oi

2006$/Barrel 

2000 32.14 4.80 8.84 8.43 4.85 8.36 8.22 12001 24.93 3.74 7.45 7.34 3.79 6.97 6.90 2002 26.41 3.96 7.74 7.44 4.00 7.25 7.16 12003 30.22 4.52 8.47 8.24 4.57 7.99 7.89 12004 38.07 5.68 9.98 9.75 5.73 9.50 9.39 12005 50.29 7.48 12.33 12.07 7.53 11.85 11.73 12006 59.01 8.77 14.01 13.73 8.82 13.52 13.39 12007 65.00 9.66 15.16 14.87 9.70 14.67 14.54 12008 62.00 9.21 14.58 14.30 9.26 14.10 13.96 12009 60.00 8.92 14.20 13.92 8.97 13.71 13.58 12010 58.00 8.62 13.81 13.54 8.67 13.33 13.20 12011 56.75 8.44 13.57 13.30 8.49 13.09 12.96 12012 55.52 8.26 13.33 13.07 8.30 12.85 12.73 12013 54.32 8.08 13.10 12.84 8.13 12.62 12.50 12014 53.15 7.91 12.88 12.61 7.95 12.40 12.27 12015 52.00 7.74 12.66 12.40 7.78 12.17 12.05 12016 51.59 7.68 12.58 12.32 7.72 12.10 11.97 12017 51.19 7.62 12.50 12.24 7.66 12.02 11.90 12018 50.79 7.56 12.42 12.17 7.61 11.94 11.82 12019 50.39 7.50 12.35 12.09 7.55 11.87 11.75 12020 50.00 7.44 12.27 12.02 7.49 11.79 11.67 12021 50.39 7.50 12.35 12.09 7.55 11.87 11.75 12022 50.79 7.56 12.42 12.17 7.61 11.94 11.82 12023 51.19 7.62 12.50 12.24 7.66 12.02 11.90 12024 51.59 7.68 12.58 12.32 7.72 12.10 11.97 12025 52.00 7.74 12.66 12.40 7.78 12.17 12.05 12026 52.59 7.82 12.77 12.51 7.87 12.29 12.16 12027 53.18 7.91 12.88 12.62 7.96 12.40 12.28 12028 53.78 8.00 13.00 12.73 8.05 12.52 12.39 12029 54.39 8.09 13.12 12.85 8.14 12.63 12.51 12030 55.00 8.18 13.23 12.97 8.23 12.75 12.63 1
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 31

Table A-3e: World Oil Price and Northwest Delivered Prices to End Use Sectors (High 

High Industrial Industrial Average Commercial Commercial Average Avera

World Oil Residual Distillate Industrial Residual Distillate Commercial Residen

Year Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Price Oil Pr

2006$/Barrel 

2000 32.14 4.80 8.84 8.43 4.85 8.36 8.22 11.32001 24.93 3.74 7.45 7.34 3.79 6.97 6.90 9.92 2002 26.41 3.96 7.74 7.44 4.00 7.25 7.16 10.22003 30.22 4.52 8.47 8.24 4.57 7.99 7.89 10.92004 38.07 5.68 9.98 9.75 5.73 9.50 9.39 12.42005 50.29 7.48 12.33 12.07 7.53 11.85 11.73 14.72006 59.01 8.77 14.01 13.73 8.82 13.52 13.39 16.42007 70.00 10.40 16.12 15.81 10.44 15.64 15.49 18.52008 75.00 11.13 17.08 16.76 11.18 16.60 16.45 19.52009 70.00 10.40 16.12 15.81 10.44 15.64 15.49 18.52010 70.00 10.40 16.12 15.81 10.44 15.64 15.49 18.52011 70.00 10.40 16.12 15.81 10.44 15.64 15.49 18.52012 70.00 10.40 16.12 15.81 10.44 15.64 15.49 18.52013 70.00 10.40 16.12 15.81 10.44 15.64 15.49 18.52014 70.00 10.40 16.12 15.81 10.44 15.64 15.49 18.52015 70.00 10.40 16.12 15.81 10.44 15.64 15.49 18.52016 69.60 10.34 16.04 15.74 10.38 15.56 15.41 18.52017 69.19 10.28 15.96 15.66 10.32 15.48 15.34 18.42018 68.79 10.22 15.89 15.59 10.26 15.40 15.26 18.32019 68.40 10.16 15.81 15.51 10.21 15.33 15.18 18.22020 68.00 10.10 15.73 15.43 10.15 15.25 15.11 18.22021 67.39 10.01 15.62 15.32 10.06 15.13 14.99 18.02022 66.78 9.92 15.50 15.20 9.97 15.02 14.88 17.92023 66.18 9.83 15.38 15.09 9.88 14.90 14.76 17.82024 65.59 9.74 15.27 14.98 9.79 14.79 14.65 17.72025 65.00 9.66 15.16 14.87 9.70 14.67 14.54 17.62026 65.97 9.80 15.34 15.05 9.85 14.86 14.72 17.82027 66.96 9.95 15.53 15.24 9.99 15.05 14.91 18.02028 67.96 10.09 15.73 15.43 10.14 15.24 15.10 18.12029 68.97 10.24 15.92 15.62 10.29 15.44 15.29 18.32030 70.00 10.40 16.12 15.81 10.44 15.64 15.49 18.5
Coal Prices for Industrial and Utility Users(2006$/MMBtu) 

Table A-4a: Coal Price Forecasts For Selected Regions (Medium Case) 

Medium Selected Regional Electricity Generation Coal Prices 

Western Regional 

Year Minmouth Industrial 

Price Price West WA/OR East WA/OR Idaho Montana Utah Wyoming 

2005 0.64 2.27 1.55 1.30 1.00 0.65 0.65 0.65 

2006 0.55 2.08 1.42 1.18 0.90 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2007 0.55 2.04 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2008 0.55 2.01 1.39 1.16 0.89 0.56 0.56 0.56 

2009 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.56 0.56 0.56 

2010 0.56 2.02 1.40 1.17 0.89 0.56 0.56 0.56 

2011 0.56 2.04 1.41 1.17 0.90 0.57 0.57 0.57 

2012 0.56 2.04 1.41 1.17 0.90 0.57 0.57 0.57 

2013 0.56 2.04 1.42 1.18 0.90 0.57 0.57 0.57 

2014 0.57 2.05 1.42 1.18 0.91 0.57 0.57 0.57 

2015 0.57 2.05 1.42 1.18 0.91 0.58 0.58 0.58 

2016 0.57 2.06 1.43 1.19 0.91 0.58 0.58 0.58 

2017 0.58 2.06 1.43 1.19 0.92 0.58 0.58 0.58 

2018 0.58 2.06 1.43 1.19 0.92 0.59 0.59 0.59 

2019 0.58 2.07 1.44 1.20 0.92 0.59 0.59 0.59 

2020 0.58 2.07 1.44 1.20 0.93 0.59 0.59 0.59 

2021 0.59 2.07 1.44 1.20 0.93 0.59 0.59 0.59 

2022 0.59 2.08 1.44 1.21 0.93 0.60 0.60 0.60 

2023 0.59 2.08 1.45 1.21 0.94 0.60 0.60 0.60 

2024 0.60 2.08 1.45 1.21 0.94 0.60 0.60 0.60 

2025 0.60 2.09 1.45 1.21 0.94 0.61 0.61 0.61 

2026 0.60 2.09 1.46 1.22 0.94 0.61 0.61 0.61 

2027 0.61 2.09 1.46 1.22 0.95 0.61 0.61 0.61 

2028 0.61 2.10 1.46 1.22 0.95 0.62 0.62 0.62 

2029 0.61 2.10 1.47 1.23 0.95 0.62 0.62 0.62 

2030 0.61 2.10 1.47 1.23 0.96 0.62 0.62 0.62 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 33

Table A-4b: Coal Price Forecasts For Selected Regions (Low Case) 

Low Selected Regional Electricity Generation Coal Prices 

 Western Regional 

Year Minmouth Industrial 

 Price Price West WA/OR East WA/OR Idaho Montana Utah Wyoming 

2005 0.64 2.27 1.55 1.30 1.00 0.65 0.65 0.65 

2006 0.55 2.08 1.42 1.18 0.90 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2007 0.54 1.98 1.37 1.14 0.88 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2008 0.54 1.96 1.37 1.14 0.87 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2009 0.54 2.00 1.38 1.15 0.87 0.54 0.54 0.54 

2010 0.53 2.01 1.38 1.14 0.87 0.54 0.54 0.54 

2011 0.53 2.01 1.38 1.14 0.87 0.54 0.54 0.54 

2012 0.53 2.01 1.38 1.14 0.87 0.54 0.54 0.54 

2013 0.53 2.01 1.38 1.14 0.87 0.53 0.53 0.53 

2014 0.52 2.00 1.38 1.14 0.86 0.53 0.53 0.53 

2015 0.52 2.00 1.37 1.13 0.86 0.53 0.53 0.53 

2016 0.52 2.00 1.37 1.13 0.86 0.53 0.53 0.53 

2017 0.52 2.00 1.37 1.13 0.86 0.52 0.52 0.52 

2018 0.51 2.00 1.37 1.13 0.85 0.52 0.52 0.52 

2019 0.51 2.00 1.36 1.13 0.85 0.52 0.52 0.52 

2020 0.51 1.99 1.36 1.12 0.85 0.52 0.52 0.52 

2021 0.51 1.99 1.36 1.12 0.85 0.51 0.51 0.51 

2022 0.50 1.99 1.36 1.12 0.84 0.51 0.51 0.51 

2023 0.50 1.98 1.35 1.11 0.84 0.51 0.51 0.51 

2024 0.50 1.98 1.35 1.11 0.84 0.51 0.51 0.51 

2025 0.50 1.98 1.35 1.11 0.84 0.50 0.50 0.50 

2026 0.49 1.98 1.35 1.11 0.83 0.50 0.50 0.50 

2027 0.49 1.98 1.34 1.11 0.83 0.50 0.50 0.50 

2028 0.49 1.97 1.34 1.10 0.83 0.50 0.50 0.50 

2029 0.49 1.97 1.34 1.10 0.83 0.49 0.49 0.49 

2030 0.48 1.97 1.34 1.10 0.82 0.49 0.49 0.49 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 34

Table A-4c: Coal Price Forecasts For Selected Regions (Medium-Low Case) 

Medlo Selected Regional Electricity Generation Coal Prices 

 Western Regional 

Year Minmouth Industrial 

 Price Price West WA/OR East WA/OR Idaho Montana Utah Wyoming 

2005 0.64 2.27 1.55 1.30 1.00 0.65 0.65 0.65 

2006 0.55 2.08 1.42 1.18 0.90 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2007 0.55 2.01 1.39 1.15 0.88 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2008 0.55 1.97 1.37 1.14 0.88 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2009 0.55 2.02 1.39 1.16 0.88 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2010 0.55 2.02 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2011 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2012 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2013 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2014 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2015 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2016 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2017 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2018 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2019 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2020 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2021 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2022 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2023 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2024 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2025 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2026 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2027 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2028 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2029 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2030 0.55 2.03 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.55 0.55 0.55 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 35

Table A-4d: Coal Price Forecasts For Selected Regions (Medium-High Case) 

Medhi Selected Regional Electricity Generation Coal Prices 

 Western Regional 

Year Minmouth Industrial 

 Price Price West WA/OR East WA/OR Idaho Montana Utah Wyoming 

2005 0.64 2.27 1.55 1.30 1.00 0.65 0.65 0.65 

2006 0.55 2.08 1.42 1.18 0.90 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2007 0.55 2.07 1.42 1.17 0.90 0.56 0.56 0.56 

2008 0.56 2.02 1.40 1.16 0.89 0.56 0.56 0.56 

2009 0.56 2.03 1.41 1.17 0.90 0.57 0.57 0.57 

2010 0.57 2.04 1.41 1.18 0.90 0.57 0.57 0.57 

2011 0.57 2.05 1.42 1.18 0.91 0.58 0.58 0.58 

2012 0.58 2.05 1.43 1.19 0.92 0.58 0.58 0.58 

2013 0.58 2.06 1.43 1.19 0.92 0.59 0.59 0.59 

2014 0.59 2.06 1.44 1.20 0.93 0.59 0.59 0.59 

2015 0.59 2.07 1.44 1.20 0.93 0.60 0.60 0.60 

2016 0.60 2.08 1.45 1.21 0.94 0.60 0.60 0.60 

2017 0.60 2.08 1.45 1.22 0.94 0.61 0.61 0.61 

2018 0.61 2.09 1.46 1.22 0.95 0.61 0.61 0.61 

2019 0.61 2.10 1.46 1.23 0.95 0.62 0.62 0.62 

2020 0.62 2.10 1.47 1.23 0.96 0.63 0.63 0.63 

2021 0.62 2.11 1.48 1.24 0.97 0.63 0.63 0.63 

2022 0.63 2.12 1.48 1.24 0.97 0.64 0.64 0.64 

2023 0.64 2.12 1.49 1.25 0.98 0.64 0.64 0.64 

2024 0.64 2.13 1.49 1.26 0.98 0.65 0.65 0.65 

2025 0.65 2.13 1.50 1.26 0.99 0.65 0.65 0.65 

2026 0.65 2.14 1.51 1.27 0.99 0.66 0.66 0.66 

2027 0.66 2.15 1.51 1.27 1.00 0.67 0.67 0.67 

2028 0.66 2.15 1.52 1.28 1.01 0.67 0.67 0.67 

2029 0.67 2.16 1.52 1.29 1.01 0.68 0.68 0.68 

2030 0.68 2.17 1.53 1.29 1.02 0.68 0.68 0.68 
Draft Revised Fuel Price Forecasts July 3, 2007 

Council document 2007-10 36

Table A-4e: Coal Price Forecasts For Selected Regions (High Case) 

High Selected Regional Electricity Generation Coal Prices 

 Western Regional 

Year Minmouth Industrial 

 Price Price West WA/OR East WA/OR Idaho Montana Utah Wyoming 

2005 0.64 2.27 1.55 1.30 1.00 0.65 0.65 0.65 

2006 0.55 2.08 1.42 1.18 0.90 0.55 0.55 0.55 

2007 0.55 2.10 1.43 1.19 0.90 0.56 0.56 0.56 

2008 0.56 2.07 1.42 1.18 0.91 0.57 0.57 0.57 

2009 0.57 2.03 1.41 1.18 0.91 0.58 0.58 0.58 

2010 0.58 2.06 1.43 1.19 0.92 0.58 0.58 0.58 

2011 0.58 2.07 1.44 1.20 0.93 0.59 0.59 0.59 

2012 0.59 2.08 1.45 1.21 0.93 0.60 0.60 0.60 

2013 0.60 2.09 1.45 1.22 0.94 0.61 0.61 0.61 

2014 0.61 2.09 1.46 1.22 0.95 0.62 0.62 0.62 

2015 0.62 2.10 1.47 1.23 0.96 0.62 0.62 0.62 

2016 0.63 2.11 1.48 1.24 0.97 0.63 0.63 0.63 

2017 0.64 2.12 1.49 1.25 0.98 0.64 0.64 0.64 

2018 0.64 2.13 1.50 1.26 0.99 0.65 0.65 0.65 

2019 0.65 2.14 1.51 1.27 0.99 0.66 0.66 0.66 

2020 0.66 2.15 1.51 1.28 1.00 0.67 0.67 0.67 

2021 0.67 2.15 1.52 1.29 1.01 0.68 0.68 0.68 

2022 0.68 2.16 1.53 1.29 1.02 0.69 0.69 0.69 

2023 0.69 2.17 1.54 1.30 1.03 0.70 0.70 0.70 

2024 0.70 2.18 1.55 1.31 1.04 0.71 0.71 0.71 

2025 0.71 2.19 1.56 1.32 1.05 0.72 0.72 0.72 

2026 0.72 2.21 1.58 1.34 1.06 0.73 0.73 0.73 

2027 0.73 2.22 1.59 1.35 1.07 0.74 0.74 0.74 

2028 0.74 2.23 1.60 1.36 1.08 0.75 0.75 0.75 

2029 0.75 2.24 1.61 1.37 1.09 0.76 0.76 0.76 

2030 0.76 2.25 1.62 1.38 1.10 0.77 0.77 0.77 

_____________________________________ 

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