U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration 

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU 

P95/07-1

Issued June 2007

International Population Reports

Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: 

Demographic Dimensions 2006

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

National Institutes of Health

NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING

By

Victoria A. Velkoff 

and 

Paul R. Kowal
This report was prepared by Victoria A. Velkoff and Paul R. Kowal

under the general direction of James C. Gibbs, Chief, Demographic

and Economic Studies, International Programs Center (IPC), Population

Division, U.S. Census Bureau. Enrique J. Lamas, Chief, Population

Division, and Peter O. Way, Chief, IPC, provided overall direction.

The authors are grateful to many other people within the Census

Bureau who assisted with this report. There are too many people to

thank individually, but the authors acknowledge their insights and

contributions.

Jan Sweeney, Theodora Forgione, and Jamie Peters of the

Administrative and Customer Services Division, Walter C. Odom,

Chief, provided publication and printing management, graphics

design and composition, and editorial review for print and electronic

media. General direction and production management were provided

by Wanda Cevis, Chief, Publications Services Branch.

Partial funding for the research and production of this report was provided by the U.S. National Institute on Aging’s Behavioral and Social

Research Program, Richard Suzman, Director.

Acknowledgments
U.S. Department of Commerce

Carlos M. Gutierrez,

Secretary

David A. Sampson,

Deputy Secretary

Economics and Statistics Administration

Cynthia A. Glassman, 

Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Charles Louis Kincannon,

Director

P95/07-1

Issued June 2007

Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa:

Demographic Dimensions 2006
Suggested Citation

Velkoff, Victoria A. and Paul R. Kowal,

U.S. Census Bureau, 

Current Population Reports, P95/07-1 

Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa:

Demographic Dimensions 2006, 

U.S. Government Printing Office,

Washington, DC, 

2007.

ECONOMICS

AND STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION

Economics and Statistics

Administration

Cynthia A. Glassman,

Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Charles Louis Kincannon,

Director

Preston Jay Waite, 

Deputy Director and Chief Operating Officer

Howard Hogan,

Associate Director for Demographic Programs

Enrique J. Lamas,

Chief, Population Division

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office

Internet: <bookstore.gpo.gov>; Phone: toll-free 1-866-512-1800; DC area 202-512-1800

Fax: 202-512-2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-0001
U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 iii

TEXT

Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: 

Demographic Dimensions 2006

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Data Quality Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Demographic Dimensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Global Context of Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

“No Older People” in Africa? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Effect of Redefining Old Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Countries With at Least 1 Million People Aged 60 and Over . . . . 6

Countries With at Least 1 Million People Aged 50 and Over . . . . 8

Proportion of the Population Aged 60 and Over 

in Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Projected Growth in the Number Aged 60 and Over . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Composition of Older Age Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Median Age Is Low in Most of Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Dynamics of Population Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Declining Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Increasing Longevity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 

Life Expectancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Life Expectancy With and Without HIV/AIDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Measuring the Effect of HIV/AIDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Impact of HIV/AIDS in Population Pyramids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Impact of HIV/AIDS on the Size of the Older Population . . . . . . . 21

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Table of Contents
iv Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

FIGURES

1. Percent Aged 60 and Over by Region of the World: 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2. Average Annual Growth Rate of the Population Aged 60 and Over in Sub-Saharan Africa and 

More Developed Countries: 2000 to 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3. Percent Aged 50 and Over by Region of the World: 2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

4. Population Aged 60 and Over for Sub-Saharan African Countries With at Least 1 Million People 

in That Age Group: 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

5. Population Aged 60 and Over for Sub-Saharan African Countries With at Least 1 Million People 

in That Age Group: 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

6. Population Aged 50 and Over for Sub-Saharan African Countries With at Least 1 Million People 

in That Age Group: 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

7. Population Aged 50 and Over for Sub-Saharan African Countries With at Least 1 Million People 

in That Age Group: 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

8. Percent Aged 60 and Over for Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

9. Percent Aged 60 and Over for Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

10. Percent Change in the Population Aged 60 and Over in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 

2006 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

11. Total Fertility Rate for Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

12. Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

13. Male Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1982 to 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . 16

14. Female Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1982 to 2006 . . . . . . . . . 16

15. Population by Age and Sex in Botswana With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality: 2006 . . . . . . . . 19

16. Population by Age and Sex in Botswana With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality: 2030 . . . . . . . . 19

17. Population by Age and Sex in Zimbabwe With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality: 2006 . . . . . . . 20

18. Population by Age and Sex in Zimbabwe With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality: 2030 . . . . . . . 20

19. Number of People Aged 60 and Over With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality in 

Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

20. Projected Number of People Aged 60 and Over With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality in 

Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
TABLES

1. Number of Older People by Age and Region of the World: 2006, 2015, 2030, and 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . 4

2. Life Expectancy at Birth, With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality Incorporated in the Estimate, 

by Sex for Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

APPENDIX A: DETAILED TABLES

A-1. Older Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 

1990, 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

A-2. Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 

1990, 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

A-3a. Average Annual Growth Rate by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 

2006–2015 and 2015–2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

A-3b. Percent Change by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 

2006–2015 and 2015–2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

A-4. Median Age for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006, 2015, and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

A-5. Total Fertility Rate and Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006 . . . . . 37

A-6. Adult (Ages 15 to 49) HIV Prevalence Rate for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 v

INTRODUCTION

Population aging will become an

increasingly important demographic dynamic affecting families

and societies throughout the world

in the coming decades. In 2006,

64 percent of the worldwide population aged 60 and older resided in

developing countries, and this proportion is projected to increase to

nearly 73 percent by 2030.1 Yet,

the limited understanding of the

demographics of aging in most

developing countries stands in

stark contrast to the comparatively

well-documented course and implications of aging in developed

countries. Sub-Saharan Africa is no

exception to this characterization

and, in fact, may be the region

with the least well understood

aging trends. 

A combination of factors limits our

understanding of the situation of

older people in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The main factor is that demographic data in general, and for

this population in particular, are

scarce in most Sub-Saharan African

countries. Older people in SubSaharan Africa constitute a small

proportion of the population and

their proportions are projected to

grow fairly slowly relative to other

areas in the world.2 In addition,

other more pressing political,

demographic, and health issues

have confronted the subcontinent

over the past two decades, and the

systems to collect data essential

for accurate demographic estimates and projections are largely

lacking. For instance, fewer than

ten countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

have vital registration systems that

produce usable data, and only two

systems (Mauritius and Seychelles)

cover at least 80 percent of the

population. Resources available

for addressing demographic

changes and health problems in

Africa have focused on issues of

more immediate concern to people

who are not yet old: infant, child,

and maternal health; nutrition; and

HIV/AIDS. However, the consequences of recent social and

political upheavals—HIV/AIDS,

poverty, and violent conflicts—

have affected many African societies and put older people into

new roles with larger responsibilities in families and communities

(Dayton and Ainsworth, 2002;

Greener, 2004; Haacker, 2004;

UNAIDS/WHO, 2006).

Although the older population

makes up a small proportion of the

population in most Sub-Saharan

African countries, the absolute number of older people is growing. In

2006, 35 million people were aged

60 and older in Sub-Saharan Africa,

and this number is projected to

increase to over 69 million by 2030.

In fact, the sheer number of older

people is growing more rapidly in

Sub-Saharan Africa than in the

developed world. This increase in

the number of older people will

occur despite the excess mortality

due to HIV/AIDS that many SubSaharan African countries are

currently experiencing. 

This report focuses primarily on

the demographic aspects of aging

in Sub-Saharan African countries,

with a special section examining

the impact of HIV/AIDS on population aging. Older people in Africa

are a particularly vulnerable social

group, and they have been made

more vulnerable because of the

HIV/AIDS pandemic that is affecting many of these countries

(Dayton and Ainsworth, 2002;

UNAIDS/WHO, 2006). 

This report examines the populations aged 50 and over, 60 and

over, and 80 and over. The cultural

definition of “old” differs greatly

between and within countries.

Attaching a chronological age to

“old” often serves practical or official purposes, and looking at these

three age groupings will help to

compare and contrast the older

populations (Sokolovsky, 1997).

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 1

Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa:

Demographic Dimensions 2006

1 The “developed” and “developing” country categories used in this report correspond

directly to the “more developed” and “less

developed” classification employed by the

United Nations. Developed countries comprise all nations in Europe (including the following nations that formerly were part of the

Soviet Union: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia,

Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine) and

Northern America, plus Japan, Australia, and

New Zealand. The remaining nations of the

world are classified as developing countries.

2 For the purposes of this report, SubSaharan Africa includes 50 countries. The

report focuses on 42 countries that had total

populations of at least 1 million in 2006. The

countries not included in the report’s tables

and figures are Cape Verde, Comoros,

Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Mayotte, Saint

Helena, Sao Tome and Principe, and

Seychelles. Data for the 42 focus countries

can be found in Appendix A. Mauritius,

although it has a population of over 1 million,

is also excluded from the report tables and

figures, as it is a demographic outlier in many

ways. The data for Mauritius are included in

the detailed tables in Appendix A.
2 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

The demographic data in this report are presented

using the conventional practice of showing percentages, total fertility rates, and life expectancies to the

first decimal place. This is done for ease of comparison to other data. However, it does not denote that

these data are precise to that decimal place. The

data in this report should be interpreted with care.

Most of the data in this report are based on population estimates and projections prepared by the U.S.

Census Bureau.3 The Census Bureau produces population estimates and projections for every country

with a population of more than 5,000 in the world,

utilizing available demographic data from censuses,

vital registrations, demographic health surveys, and

other sources. Published data are adjusted where

appropriate and assumptions are made regarding

future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.

Unforeseen events can rapidly modify the demographic environment. As with any projection data,

uncertainties about the levels and directions of

future fertility, mortality, and net immigration levels

mean that the actual future population is never

identical to the projected population.

Population estimates and projections for many SubSaharan African countries are based on limited data.

Few Sub-Saharan African countries have data available from a recent census, and several countries

have postponed their 2000 round census to 2006 or

later (Velkoff and Kowal, 2006). For the countries

that do have recent census data, data quality has

been uneven. Very few countries in Sub-Saharan

Africa have functioning vital statistics systems that

produce usable data on fertility and mortality

(Mathers, et al., 2005; Timaeus and Jasseh, 2004).

Because of the lack of vital statistics, data from

demographic and health surveys are used to produce estimates of fertility and infant and child mortality (Cohen, 1993; Hill, 2003). These estimates of

infant and child mortality are then typically matched

to model life tables to produce adult mortality estimates (Hill, 2003; Velkoff and Kowal, 2006). 

The Census Bureau has incorporated estimates of

HIV/AIDS-related mortality in population projections

for 54 countries worldwide that are affected by the

epidemic; 36 of these are Sub-Saharan African countries. To obtain estimates of HIV/AIDS-related mortality, the Census Bureau incorporates estimates of HIV

prevalence through 2010 from the Estimation and

Projection Package—an epidemiological model used

by the World Health Organization (WHO)/the Joint

United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS).

Assumptions from the WHO/UNAIDS Epidemiological

Reference Group about age/sex distribution, sex

ratios of new infections, mother-to-child transmission

rates, and disease progression are also incorporated

into the estimates (Epstein and Heaton, 2005). The

model also includes the impact of antiretroviral therapy on survival of AIDS patients. The HIV prevalence

rates used in the population estimates and projections are based on data from the beginning of the

epidemic and typically include the most recent data

available for a country (see Table A-6 for the 2005

adult prevalence rates included in the projections

used in this report). These data on adult HIV prevalence estimates come from sentinel surveillance data

pertaining to pregnant women visiting antenatal clinics and, in selected countries, data from populationbased surveys that obtain information on HIV prevalence. The uncertainty around these estimates is

often large. The incorporation of new data on HIV

prevalence into a population projection can have a

substantial effect on the results of that projection.

The HIV prevalence rates are used in conjunction

with the Census Bureau’s cohort component RuralUrban Projections program, which is used to conduct

population estimates and projections to produce

“With HIV/AIDS-related mortality” and “Without

HIV/AIDS-related mortality” scenarios. The “With

HIV/AIDS” scenario shows what has happened and

what is projected to happen in a country as a result

of HIV/AIDS-related mortality and its demographic

consequences. The “Without HIV/AIDS” scenario

shows a hypothetical series of what the Census

Bureau’s modeling work indicates would have happened if the country had not been affected by an

HIV/AIDS epidemic (Epstein, 2004; Epstein and

Heaton, 2005).

Data Quality Issues

3 Many of the data included in this report are from the Census

Bureau’s International Data Base (IDB). The data from the IDB were

accessed in June 2006. The statistics provided represent only a

small portion of the total IDB data. The IDB is maintained and

updated by the Census Bureau’s International Programs Center (IPC)

and is funded in part by the Behavioral and Social Research

Program of the U.S. National Institute on Aging. IDB contents are

readily available from the Census Bureau’s Web site; the direct

access address is <www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb>.
While the older population is frequently defined as those aged 60

and over or 65 and over, when

examining aging in Sub-Saharan

Africa those age cutoffs may not

be appropriate. In 2006, over fourfifths of the Sub-Saharan countries

had a life expectancy at birth of 55

years or less. In seven countries,

life expectancy at birth was 40

years or less. Life expectancy at

age 50 in many Sub-Saharan countries is akin to life expectancy at

age 60 or 65 in the United States

and Europe. Because of the low

life expectancies, a younger cutoff

for entry into the ranks of old age

may be more suitable when studying aging in Africa. Examining

those aged 50 and over will assist

in understanding future population

aging in Africa. This examination

may reveal important demographic

differences that have direct bearing

on social policy now and in the

future. For example, making 50

the age cutoff for “old” more than

doubles the size of the older population in Sub-Saharan Africa. The

rapid growth of the older population is particularly relevant to public policy, as individual needs and

social responsibilities change considerably with increased age.

This report is designed to provide

a systematic and quantitative comparison of older populations in

Sub-Saharan Africa. Accurate information is the first step in better

understanding the effects of population aging within and across

national boundaries and is essential to developing appropriate

policies and programs for the 

older populations. 

DEMOGRAPHIC DIMENSIONS

Global Context of Aging

Population aging is in many ways a

success story, as people are living

longer and healthier than ever

before (Kinsella and Phillips,

2005).4 However, the growth of

the older population also presents

challenges to policymakers, families, businesses, and health care

providers, among others, to meet

the needs of aging individuals.

Many countries of the world are

aging at an unprecedented rate.

The numbers of older people and

the pace of aging vary widely both

by region and within regions.

Typically, more developed countries have higher proportions of

their populations in older age

groups than do developing countries (Figure 1). For example,

nearly 20 percent of Europe’s population was aged 60 and over in

2006. In contrast, less than 5 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population was aged 60 and over. In

other developing regions, those

aged 60 and over make up

between 7 percent and 10 percent

of the population. In all regions of

the world, the proportion 60 and

over is projected to increase in the

future. By 2030, 28 percent of

Europeans are projected to be aged

60 and over. In Asia, Latin

America, and the Caribbean, the

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 3

Figure 1. 

Percent Aged 60 and Over by Region of 

the World: 2006 and 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Near East/North Africa

Latin America/Caribbean

Asia

Oceania

Northern America

Europe

2006

2030

5.6

19.6

28.2

17.1

25.4

14.6

21.5

9.6

17.8

9.0

16.7

6.8

12.3

4.7

4 Mortality has decreased and life

expectancy at birth has increased in most,

but not all, countries of the world.

Exceptions include several Commonwealth of

Independent States countries and many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that have been

highly affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic

(He, Sengupta, Velkoff, and DeBarros, 2005).

Historically, falling mortality rates initially

lead to younger populations, but as mortality

reaches relatively low levels, further declines

contribute to population aging (Lee, 1994).

See the section on “Dynamics of Population

Aging” on page 13.
proportions aged 60 and over are

projected to nearly double in less

than 25 years. Again, Sub-Saharan

Africa stands in contrast to the

other regions of the world with the

proportion aged 60 and over projected to grow relatively slightly,

from 4.7 percent in 2006 to 5.6

percent in 2030.

“No Older People” in Africa?

The small increase in the proportion aged 60 and over in SubSaharan Africa masks a large

increase in the number of people 

in this age group. The number of

people aged 60 and over in SubSaharan Africa will nearly double

from over 35 million in 2006 to

over 69 million in 2030 (Table 1).

Between 2030 and 2050, the number of older people in Sub-Saharan

Africa is projected to double again

to over 139 million. The number

4 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Table 1.

Number of Older People by Age and Region of the World:

2006, 2015, 2030, and 2050

(In thousands)

Region

and year

Total,

all ages

50 years

and over

60 years

and over

80 years

and over

World

2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,525,521 1,271,311 683,334 90,014

2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,225,878 1,620,873 895,032 126,465

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,290,288 2,310,781 1,402,673 214,680

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,401,505 3,146,862 2,087,597 466,094

Europe

2006 . . . ........................... 805,534 260,381 157,997 27,849

2015 . . . ........................... 809,295 294,134 180,995 35,720

2030 . . . ........................... 798,606 333,022 225,570 46,971

2050 . . . ........................... 757,294 345,725 254,079 72,020

North America

2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331,672 99,813 56,739 12,200

2015 . . . ........................... 358,378 123,017 73,553 13,963

2030 . . . ........................... 403,073 147,653 102,554 21,937

2050 . . . ........................... 461,639 173,570 122,026 37,659

Oceania

2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33,129 8,449 4,831 907

2015 . . . ........................... 36,450 10,423 6,266 1,112

2030 . . . ........................... 41,139 13,694 8,857 1,795

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44,761 16,962 11,468 2,959

Asia

2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,682,827 685,587 353,102 37,435

2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,062,994 904,160 486,001 58,763

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,591,905 1,360,854 816,632 113,031

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,012,685 1,866,459 1,254,954 279,491

Latin America/Caribbean

2006 . . . ........................... 561,246 96,173 50,752 6,550

2015 . . . ........................... 620,603 130,641 69,366 9,469

2030 . . . ........................... 703,993 200,070 117,676 17,365

2050 . . . ........................... 764,855 284,094 186,795 39,627

Near East/North Africa

2006 . . . ........................... 358,323 47,884 24,497 2,549

2015 . . . ........................... 416,978 67,005 33,796 3,896

2030 . . . ........................... 507,550 115,045 62,179 7,252

2050 . . . ........................... 605,780 188,407 119,004 19,833

Sub-Saharan Africa

2006 . . . ........................... 752,790 73,025 35,415 2,524

2015 . . . ........................... 921,181 91,492 45,056 3,542

2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,244,021 140,443 69,205 6,330

2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,754,492 271,643 139,270 14,506

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.
of older people is growing more

rapidly in Sub-Saharan Africa than

in the developed world and will

continue to do so in the future

(Figure 2). The average annual

growth rate of the population aged

60 and over in Sub-Saharan Africa

is over 2 percent and will increase

over the next 45 years to nearly 

4 percent. In contrast, the average

annual growth rate of this population in developed countries is less

than 2 percent and is projected to

decline to less than 1 percent over

the next several decades. The near

doubling of the number of people

aged 60 and over in Sub-Saharan

Africa over the next quarter century is expected to take place

despite the excess mortality that

will occur from HIV/AIDS. 

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 5

Figure 2. 

Average Annual Growth Rate of the Population 

Aged 60 and Over in Sub-Saharan Africa and 

More Developed Countries: 2000 to 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2006.

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Percent

More developed countries

Sub-Saharan Africa
Effect of Redefining 

Old Age 

As mentioned earlier, using age 60

as the demarcation into old age

may not be appropriate for the

countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, as

over 80 percent of these countries

have life expectancies at birth

below 55 years of age. If age 50 is

used as the cutoff for older age

rather than age 60, the number of

people in the older ages more than

doubles (Table 1) and the proportions older increase as well 

(Figure 3). In 2006, there were over

73 million people aged 50 and over

in Sub-Saharan Africa, and this number is expected to nearly double by

2030, growing to 140.4 million. In

terms of proportion of the population, those aged 50 and over made

up nearly 10 percent of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa in 2006,

and by 2030, those aged 50 and

over are projected to account for 

11 percent of the population.

Countries With at Least 

1 Million People Aged 60 

and Over 

In 2006, eight countries in SubSaharan Africa had over 1 million

people aged 60 and over (Figure 4).

Nigeria had by far the largest older

population of these Sub-Saharan

countries, with 6.6 million people

aged 60 and over in 2006, and it

ranks among the top 20 countries

in the world in the size of this population. The next-largest older populations were in South Africa and

Ethiopia, which had older populations of over 3 million each. 

6 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 3. 

Percent Aged 50 and Over by Region of 

the World: 2006 and 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007

Sub-Saharan Africa

Near East/North Africa

Latin America/Caribbean

Asia

Oceania

Northern America

Europe

2006

2030

41.7

9.7

11.3

13.4

22.7

17.1

28.4

18.6

29.6

25.5

33.3

30.1

36.6

32.3

Figure 4. 

Population Aged 60 and Over for Sub-Saharan 

African Countries With at Least 1 Million People 

in That Age Group: 2006

(In millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

Ghana

Kenya

Sudan

Tanzania

Congo (Kinshasa)

Ethiopia

South Africa

Nigeria

1.2 

6.6

3.5

3.3

2.6

1.7

1.6

1.4
The size of the older populations in

some Sub-Saharan African countries

is similar to the size in more developed countries. For instance,

Nigeria’s older population is roughly

the same size as that of Poland. 

By 2030, the list of Sub-Saharan

countries with at least 1 million

people aged 60 and over is projected to grow to 16 (Figure 5).

Again, Nigeria is predicted to have

the largest older population, with

over 12 million people aged 60

and over in 2030. Ethiopia and

Congo (Kinshasa) are projected to

rank second and third, with around

6.6 million and 6.1 million people

aged 60 and over, respectively. 

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 7

Figure 5. 

Population Aged 60 and Over for Sub-Saharan 

African Countries With at Least 1 Million People 

in That Age Group: 2030

(In millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

Niger 

Burkina Faso

Senegal

Mozambique

Cote d’Ivoire

Cameroon

Uganda

Madagascar

Ghana

Tanzania

Kenya

Sudan

South Africa

Congo (Kinshasa)

Ethiopia

Nigeria 12.3

6.6

6.1

4.8

3.9

3.7

3.3

2.9

2.3

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.0
Countries With at Least 

1 Million People Aged 50 

and Over 

If age 50 is used as the definition

of the older population, 20 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa had

older populations of over 1 million

people (Figure 6). Again, Nigeria

had the largest older population in

Sub-Saharan Africa, with 13.7 million people aged 50 and over in

2006. South Africa and Ethiopia

each had approximately 7 million

people aged 50 and over. 

8 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 6. 

Population Aged 50 and Over for Sub-Saharan 

African Countries With at Least 1 Million People 

in That Age Group: 2006

(In millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

Mali 

Burkina Faso

Niger 

Angola

Malawi

Zimbabwe

Senegal

Madagascar

Cote d’Ivoire

Cameroon

Uganda

Mozambique

Ghana

Kenya

Tanzania

Sudan

Congo (Kinshasa)

South Africa

Ethiopia

Nigeria

1.0 

13.7

7.1

7.0

5.4

3.6

3.4

3.0

2.3

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1
By 2030, over half of the countries

in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected

to have at least 1 million people

aged 50 and over (Figure 7).

Nigeria is projected to have over

25 million people in this age group

by 2030. Ethiopia is projected to

have 13.4 million, Congo

(Kinshasa) is projected to have

12.7 million, and Sudan is projected to have around 8.3 million. 

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 9

Figure 7. 

Population Aged 50 and Over for Sub-Saharan 

African Countries With at Least 1 Million 

People in That Age Group: 2030

(In millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

Eritrea

Zambia

Togo

Zimbabwe

Burundi

Chad

Benin

Malawi

Guinea

Mali 

Somalia

Angola

Rwanda

Niger

Burkina Faso

Senegal

Mozambique

Cote d'Ivoire

Cameroon

Madagascar

Uganda

Ghana

Tanzania

South Africa

Kenya

Sudan

Congo (Kinshasa)

Ethiopia

Nigeria

1.0

25.4

13.4

12.7

8.3

7.7

7.6

7.0

5.5

4.5

4.4

3.6

3.3

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2
Proportion of the 

Population Aged 60 and Over

in Sub-Saharan Africa

Although the proportion aged 60

and over is just under 5 percent for

Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, a

number of countries in the region

have higher proportions in this age

group (Figure 8 and Table A-1).

Nearly 8 percent of South Africa’s

population was aged 60 and over in

2006, making it the oldest country

in Sub-Saharan Africa.5 Lesotho had

7.0 percent of its population aged

60 and over in 2006, and 6 percent

of the Central African Republic’s

population was in this age group.

At the other end of the spectrum

are countries such as Benin, Burkina

Faso, Burundi, Kenya, Mauritania,

Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda, and

Zambia, where the older population

accounted for 4 percent or less of

the total population.

10 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 8. 

Percent Aged 60 and Over for Selected Sub-Saharan 

African Countries: 2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

Uganda

Rwanda

Zambia

Burkina Faso

Kenya

Congo (Kinshasa)

Malawi

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Angola

Mozambique

Cote d’Ivoire

Madagascar

Senegal

Mali 

Cameroon

Nigeria

Zimbabwe

Ghana

Botswana

Eritrea

Central African Republic

Lesotho

South Africa

3.3

7.9

7.0

6.0

5.6

5.5

5.2

5.1

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.7

5 Several of the smaller countries of SubSaharan Africa excluded from the analysis for

this report have higher proportions aged 60

and over, as does Mauritius.
By 2030, over 12 percent of the

population of South Africa is projected to be aged 60 and over

(Figure 9 and Table A-1). In Ghana,

nearly 9 percent of the population is

projected to be 60 and over. While

the proportion aged 60 and over in

many Sub-Saharan African countries

is projected to increase, most countries in the region are projected to

remain fairly young, with less than

6 percent aged 60 and over.

Overall, the proportion aged 60 and

over is projected to remain fairly

stable in many Sub-Saharan African

countries. For instance, 3.9 percent

of Burkina Faso’s population in 2006

was aged 60 and over, and this proportion is projected to be roughly

the same in 2030. In other countries, the proportion is projected to

decrease slightly. In Uganda, the

percentage is projected to decrease

from 3.3 percent in 2006 to 3.1 percent in 2030. Similar trends are

found in the Central African

Republic, Malawi, Mali, Sierra Leone,

Swaziland, and Zambia.

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 11

Figure 9. 

Percent Aged 60 and Over for Selected Sub-Saharan 

African Countries: 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

Uganda

Zambia

Mali

Burkina Faso

Malawi

Angola

Congo (Kinshasa)

Mozambique

Rwanda

Nigeria 

Ethiopia

Central African Republic

Tanzania

Cote d’Ivoire

Madagascar

Zimbabwe

Eritrea

Cameroon

Senegal

Kenya

Botswana

Lesotho

Ghana

South Africa

3.1

12.4

8.8

8.4

7.6

6.8

6.6

6.6

6.3

6.1

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.3

5.2

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.0

4.0

3.4

3.3
Projected Growth in the

Number Aged 60 and Over 

In contrast with these relatively

stable proportions aged 60 and

over, the absolute number of people in this age group is projected

to increase over the next few

decades in most Sub-Saharan

African countries. For instance, the

decrease in the proportion aged 60

and over in Uganda between 2006

and 2030 masks an increase over

the same time period of over 1 million in the absolute number of

people in this age group. An

exception to this projected trend in

the number of older people can be

found in Swaziland. The number

of older people is projected to

decline in Swaziland between 2006

and 2030. Other countries

severely affected by the HIV/AIDS

epidemic (e.g., Lesotho, Zambia,

Zimbabwe, and the Central African

Republic) are expected to experience small increases in the number

of older people between 2006 and

2030. Conversely, the number of

older people in some countries is

projected to more than double by

2030 (e.g., Madagascar, Kenya,

Rwanda, Ghana, Senegal, Congo

[Kinshasa], Uganda, Cameroon, and

Burkina Faso).

Composition of 

Older Age Groups

In many countries in the world, the

oldest old (those aged 80 and

over) are the fastest-growing segment of the older population. This

is true for a majority of SubSaharan African countries as well.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, around 

2.5 million people were aged 80

and over in 2006, and this number

is projected to more than double to

6.3 million by 2030 (Table 1).

Despite the rapid growth in the

number of people aged 80 and

over, the oldest-old population

accounted for, and is projected to

account for, less than 1 percent of

the total population of Sub-Saharan

Africa in the years 2006 and 2030.

While the oldest old account for a

very small proportion of the total

population, they accounted for 

7.1 percent of the 2006 population

aged 60 and over in Sub-Saharan

Africa. By 2030, the proportion

will increase to 9.1 percent. In the

world’s more developed regions,

the oldest old will account for

nearly 23 percent of the 60-andover population in 2030 and nearly

13 percent in countries in the less

developed regions. The growth of

12 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 10. 

Percent Change in the Population Aged 60 and Over 

in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 

2006 and 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

Swaziland

Lesotho

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Central African Republic

South Africa

Mali

Malawi

Mozambique

Angola

Botswana

Eritrea

Nigeria

Cote d’Ivoire

Tanzania

Ethiopia

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Uganda

Congo (Kinshasa)

Senegal

Ghana

Rwanda

Kenya

Madagascar 157

–18

19

26

27

29

36

43

56

57

60

73

85

86

88

94

98

101

105

114

133

135

142

154

155
the older population, especially the

oldest old, is important to public

policy planners because this group

is typically the most vulnerable

and most often in need of care.

Median Age Is Low in Most 

of Sub-Saharan Africa

Another measure of population

aging is the median age of the

population, the age that divides

the population into numerically

equal parts of younger and older

people. For instance, in Uganda 

in 2006, the median age was 15

years, indicating that half of the

population was younger than age

15 and half the population was

older than age 15. Uganda had the

youngest median age of all the

countries of the world. 

In 2006, the majority of countries

in Sub-Saharan Africa had median

ages of less than 20 years, indicating that these countries had very

young populations (Table A-4).

Obviously, having half of the population under the age of 20 has

implications for resource allocation

within a country. Three SubSaharan African countries had

median ages over 20—Botswana,

Lesotho, and South Africa. South

Africa had the oldest median age in

Sub-Saharan Africa at just over 24

years. Lesotho had the secondoldest median age at 20.9, and

Botswana had a median age of

20.6 years. In contrast to the

majority of Sub-Saharan African

countries, many developing countries in Asia and Latin America

have median ages over 30. The

median age in the United States is

just over 36 years, which makes it

one of the youngest developed

countries. Japan and several

European countries have median

ages over 40 years. 

By 2030, the median age is projected to increase for all SubSaharan countries. Even with a

projected increase, 16 countries

will still have median ages less

than 20 years in 2030, reflecting

fertility levels that are projected to

remain relatively high. At the

other end of the spectrum, South

Africa is projected to have a

median age of over 30 years in

2030, and Namibia’s median age is

projected to be over 27. The

median ages in Botswana, Ghana,

Kenya, and Lesotho are projected

to be over 25 years. The shifting

age structures of these countries

may impact how social programs 

are targeted.

DYNAMICS OF 

POPULATION AGING 

The factors affecting population

aging illustrate why Sub-Saharan

Africa is so young relative to other

regions and why the proportion in

the older ages will increase only

slightly. The process of population

aging is determined mainly by fertility (birth) rates and secondarily

by mortality (death) rates, and to a

lesser extent by migration.

Populations with high fertility tend

to have low proportions of older

people and vice versa. The term

“demographic transition” refers to

a gradual process whereby a country moves from high rates of fertility and mortality to low rates (Kirk,

1996; Lee, 2003; Notestein, 1945).

In general, this transition is characterized initially by declines in

infant and childhood mortality due

to reductions in infectious and parasitic diseases. The resulting

improvement in life expectancy at

birth occurs while fertility tends to

remain high, thereby producing

large birth cohorts and an expanding proportion of children relative

to adults (Kirk, 1996; Vallin, 2002).

Other things being equal, this initial decline in mortality generates a

younger population age structure.

However, as fertility rates fall and

mortality rates at older ages

improve, populations begin to age. 

Declining Fertility

Historically, declines in fertility

have been the main factor that

influenced population aging.

Declines in fertility rates result in

declines in the size of successive

birth cohorts and a corresponding

increase in the relative proportion

of the population that is older.

Developed countries experienced a

decrease in total fertility rates

beginning in the early 1900s,

which has led, in many countries,

to current fertility levels that are

below the population replacement

rate of 2.1 live births per woman

(Coale and Watkins, 1986). The

persistent and extremely low fertility levels seen in most developed

countries contribute to the current

and projected high proportion of

older people in these countries. 

Declines in fertility rates in many

developing countries have

occurred more recently and were

more rapid, with many developing

countries achieving major reductions in fertility rates over a few

decades. For example, overall fertility levels in Asia and Latin

America dropped by about 50 percent between 1965 and 1995 (from

around six children per woman to

three). Total fertility rates in many

developing countries (e.g., several

countries in Asia [including China],

several Latin American and

Caribbean countries, and some

countries of the Near East) are now

below the replacement level. The

quick reductions in fertility rates

and continued low fertility levels

have affected the speed of population aging in these countries. 

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 13
While fertility levels in most developed and several developing countries are at or below replacement

fertility (2.1 births per woman),

many of the countries of SubSaharan Africa still have fairly high

levels of fertility. Sub-Saharan

African countries account for eight

of the highest fertility rates in the

world. In 2006, Niger and Mali had

the highest total fertility rates, over

7 children per woman (Figure 11

and Table A-5). Seven Sub-Saharan

countries had total fertility rates of

4 or under (Botswana, Ghana,

Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa,

Swaziland, and Zimbabwe), and the

rate in one country was close to

replacement level—South Africa had

a total fertility rate of 2.2.

The historically high levels of fertility in many Sub-Saharan countries

help explain the very low proportion of people at older ages in

these countries. Conversely, SubSaharan African countries with relatively low levels of fertility are the

countries with higher proportions

of people aged 60 and over.

Increasing Longevity

The second demographic force

behind population aging is increasing longevity. In many countries,

life expectancy at birth has

increased and people are living

longer, contributing to the aging of

the population (National Research

Council, 2001).6 Several developed

countries have life expectancies at

birth around 80 years. Some

developing countries have life

expectancies at birth over 70 years

(e.g., Chile and China). While the

typical trend observed in life

expectancy over much of the twentieth century was upward, this

trend was not found for all countries. In Russia and many countries in the Commonwealth of

Independent States and Eastern

Europe, life expectancy at birth

decreased in the late twentieth

century. Many Sub-Saharan African

countries are also not following the

historical trend of increased

longevity leading to population

aging; rather, these countries are

experiencing a decrease in life

expectancy at birth (i.e., mortality

is getting worse). Because the

impact of HIV/AIDS has been so

large in many of these Sub-Saharan

countries, it will significantly affect

how these populations age.

14 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 11. 

Total Fertility Rate for Selected Sub-Saharan 

African Countries: 2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

South Africa

Botswana

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Ghana

Central African Republic

Cote d’Ivoire

Cameroon

Kenya

Tanzania

Eritrea

Senegal

Ethiopia

Madagascar

Mozambique

Zambia

Rwanda

Nigeria

Malawi

Angola

Congo (Kinshasa)

Burkina Faso

Somalia

Uganda

Mali

Niger

(Births per woman)

7.5

2.2

2.8

3.1

3.3

4.0

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.8

6.4

6.5

6.5

6.8

6.9

7.4

6 Typically, increases in longevity initially

come from reductions in infant and child

mortality (Vallin, 2002). When infant and

child mortality rates reach low levels, further

increases in life expectancy are a result of

reductions in mortality rates at older ages

(Kinsella and Velkoff, 2001; Kirk, 1996).
Life Expectancy

In 2006, life expectancy at birth in

Sub-Saharan countries ranged from

a high of 61.8 years in Madagascar

to a low of 32.6 years in Swaziland

(Figure 12 and Table A-5). In 25

Sub-Saharan African countries, life

expectancy at birth was below 50

years, and seven countries had life

expectancies at birth of 40 years or

less (Angola, Liberia, Lesotho, Sierra

Leone, Swaziland, Zambia, and

Zimbabwe). These low levels found

in Sub-Saharan African countries are

related to many factors, such as

poor access to health care, low

living standards, civil unrest, and

violent conflict; but in most countries, the main reason is the

HIV/AIDS pandemic. 

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 15

Figure 12. 

Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected Sub-Saharan 

African Countries: 2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

Swaziland

Angola

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Mozambique

Malawi

South Africa

Central African Republic

Nigeria

Rwanda

Cote d’Ivoire

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Uganda

Botswana

Cameroon

Kenya

Senegal

Congo (Kinshasa)

Ghana

Madagascar 61.8

58.8

56.8

56.3

54.2

52.3

51.2

51.0

49.7

49.0

48.8

48.2

47.1

43.5

42.7

42.4

40.8

39.8

39.3

38.1

37.3

32.6
The trend in life expectancy at

birth in Zimbabwe is a good illustration of the devastation of

HIV/AIDS on populations in Africa.

In Zimbabwe, male life expectancy

at birth fell from 61.6 years in

1986 to just 40.4 years in 2006, a

decrease of 21 years. The loss for

women is even larger: life

expectancy at birth dropped by

more than 27 years over the same

time period. Botswana also experienced large decreases in life

expectancy at birth, a drop of 

9 years for men and 18 years for

women. The HIV/AIDS pandemic

has had, and will continue to have,

an enormous impact on mortality

in Africa. Figures 13 and 14 show

trends in life expectancy by sex for

Botswana and three other countries—Kenya, Swaziland, and

Zimbabwe—all of which have been

affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Life expectancy at birth

was generally increasing in all four

countries for both men and women

during the early 1980s. Beginning

in the late 1980s and early 1990s,

the trajectory of life expectancy at

birth dramatically turned downward, mainly related to the

increased mortality due to

HIV/AIDS. Similar trends in life

expectancy are found in other SubSaharan African countries that have

populations affected by HIV/AIDS.

16 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 13. 

Male Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected 

Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1982 to 2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Years

Swaziland

Zimbabwe

Kenya

Botswana

Figure 14. 

Female Life Expectancy at Birth for Selected 

Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1982 to 2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Years

Swaziland

Zimbabwe

Kenya

Botswana
Life Expectancy With and

Without HIV/AIDS

Another way to illustrate the impact

of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy at

birth is to calculate life expectancies

with and without HIV/AIDS-related

mortality. The life expectancy without HIV/AIDS-related mortality is a

hypothetical estimate of what the

life expectancy would be if the

country had not experienced an

HIV/AIDS epidemic. Taking the

example of Botswana, in 2006, life

expectancy at birth for men was

22.3 years lower than it would have

been without mortality due to

HIV/AIDS (Table 2).7 HIV/AIDSrelated mortality has had an even

larger impact on female life

expectancy. Life expectancy at

birth for women in Botswana in

2006 was estimated to be 50.4

years, 28.4 years lower than

without HIV/AIDS-related mortality.

The net impact of HIV/AIDS on life

expectancy at birth in Namibia,

Lesotho, South Africa, Swaziland,

and Zimbabwe is also large, with

net differences of over 20 years in

male life expectancy and 25 years

in female life expectancy. Life

expectancies at birth in these five

countries are over 25 years lower

for women than they would have

been if HIV/AIDS was not present. 

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 17

Table 2.

Life Expectancy at Birth, With and Without AIDS Mortality Incorporated in the Estimate,

by Sex for Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006

(Countries with a difference of 5 or more years in life expectancy for at least one sex)

Country

Male Female

With AIDS Without AIDS Difference With AIDS Without AIDS Difference

Botswana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.0 74.3 –22.3 50.4 78.8 –28.4

Burkina Faso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47.3 51.7 –4.4 50.4 56.0 –5.6

Burundi . . . ............................... 50.1 57.1 –7.0 51.6 60.5 –9.0

Cameroon . . . . . . .......................... 51.7 57.2 –5.5 53.0 60.3 –7.2

Central African Republic. . . . . . . . ............ 43.5 57.0 –13.5 43.6 61.2 –17.6

Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . ................ 51.6 57.6 –6.0 54.0 61.8 –7.8

Cote d’Ivoire . . . ........................... 46.2 52.4 –6.2 51.5 60.8 –9.3

Eritrea . . . ................................ 57.4 61.3 –3.9 60.7 66.0 –5.3

Ethiopia . . . ............................... 47.9 52.1 –4.2 50.2 55.8 –5.5

Gabon . . . ................................ 53.2 62.6 –9.4 55.8 67.8 –12.0

Guinea Bissau . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.1 48.9 –3.8 48.7 53.9 –5.2

Kenya. . . ................................. 54.3 62.7 –8.5 54.2 64.8 –10.7

Lesotho . . . ............................... 40.4 63.1 –22.7 39.1 68.6 –29.5

Liberia . . . ................................ 38.0 41.7 –3.7 41.3 46.6 –5.3

Malawi . . . . . .............................. 42.8 56.4 –13.5 41.9 59.5 –17.6

Mozambique. . . ........................... 41.2 53.6 –12.5 40.4 55.4 –15.0

Namibia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44.5 68.5 –24.0 42.3 72.9 –30.6

Nigeria . . . ................................ 46.5 51.7 –5.2 47.7 54.9 –7.2

Rwanda . . . ............................... 47.2 51.4 –4.2 49.3 54.9 –5.6

South Africa . . . ........................... 43.2 63.8 –20.6 42.2 70.9 –28.7

Swaziland . . . ............................. 32.1 71.0 –38.9 33.2 76.2 –43.1

Tanzania . . . .............................. 48.5 55.5 –7.0 50.9 59.9 –9.0

Togo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.4 61.2 –5.8 59.5 67.1 –7.6

Uganda . . . . . . ............................ 50.2 57.7 –7.5 51.9 61.5 –9.6

Zambia. . . ................................ 38.0 51.4 –13.3 38.2 54.8 –16.6

Zimbabwe . . . ............................. 40.4 69.5 –29.1 38.2 73.8 –35.7

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2007.

7 For information on HIV prevalence rates

by country, see Table A-6, which presents the

estimates of HIV prevalence for adults aged

15 to 49 in 2005 for Sub-Saharan African

countries.
MEASURING THE EFFECT 

OF HIV/AIDS 

Impact of HIV/AIDS in

Population Pyramids

For countries affected severely by

the HIV/AIDS pandemic, the impact

of HIV/AIDS is clearly seen in the

age and sex structure of the population. Examining the age and sex

structures of Botswana and

Zimbabwe over time shows the

magnitude of the impact of

HIV/AIDS. Figures 15 through 18

show the age and sex structure of

the populations of Botswana and

Zimbabwe for 2006 and 2030.

These pyramids show the population estimates and projections with

HIV/AIDS-related mortality and

what the population structures

would have looked like without

HIV/AIDS-related mortality.

In Botswana in 2006, the population is smaller than it would have

been without HIV/AIDS mortality

(Figure 15), but the age structure

still has the classic shape of a

young population—wider at the

bottom and narrower at the top.

By 2030, the effect of HIV/AIDS on

Botswana’s population age and sex

structure is projected to be more

pronounced (Figure 16). The pyramid has lost the classic young population shape and resembles a

chimney. The projected population

in 2030 is much smaller in every

age group than it would have been

if there was not mortality due to

HIV/AIDS. In 2006, the total population of Botswana was about

251,000 smaller than it would

have been if HIV/AIDS had not

affected the population. By 2030,

the total population is projected to

be smaller by just over 1 million

people. The population aged 60

and over is also smaller because of

the impact of HIV/AIDS on

mortality. Projections indicate that

in 2030, if HIV/AIDS did not exist,

about 239,000 people would be

aged 60 and over in Botswana;

when HIV/AIDS mortality is incorporated into the projection, this

age group is expected to have

around 133,000 people.

18 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 19

Figure 15. 

Population by Age and Sex in Botswana With and Without 

HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality: 2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2007.

150 120 90 60 30 0 0 30 60 90 120 150

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Estimate without HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Estimate with HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Thousands

Age

Male Female

Figure 16. 

Population by Age and Sex in Botswana With and Without 

HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality: 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2007.

150 120 90 60 30 0 0 30 60 90 120 150

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Thousands

Age

Projection without HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Projection with HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Male Female
20 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 17. 

Population by Age and Sex in Zimbabwe With and Without 

HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality: 2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2007.

1,500 1,200 900 600 300 0 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Thousands

Age

Estimate without HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Estimate with HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Male Female

Figure 18. 

Population by Age and Sex in Zimbabwe With and Without 

HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality: 2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2007.

1,500 1,200 900 600 300 0 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Thousands

Age

Projection without HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Projection with HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Male Female
The age and sex structures for

Zimbabwe also show the impact of

HIV/AIDS mortality, but the impact

is not quite as severe as in

Botswana. In 2006, Zimbabwe’s

population was somewhat smaller

than it would have been if there

was no HIV/AIDS-related mortality

(Figure 17). By 2030, the impact of

HIV/AIDS can clearly be seen in the

age and sex structure of the population (Figure 18). Like Botswana,

both the total population and the

older population in Zimbabwe are

expected to be larger in 2030 than

in 2006, despite the impact of

HIV/AIDS. In 2006, there were

618,000 people aged 60 and over,

and this number is projected to

grow to 783,000 by 2030. 

Impact of HIV/AIDS on the

Size of the Older Population

HIV/AIDS-related mortality affects

not only the age structure of populations but also the size of the older

population in several Sub-Saharan

African countries. Figure 19 presents the number of people aged 60

and over for selected countries in

2006, showing estimates that incorporate HIV/AIDS-related mortality

and those that do not. The latter is

a hypothetical estimate of what the

older population would be if the

country had not experienced an

HIV/AIDS epidemic. 

In 2006, the older population was

somewhat smaller than it would

have been if the countries shown

had not been affected by an

HIV/AIDS epidemic. For example,

in 2006, Tanzania had about 

1.7 million people aged 60 and

over. If Tanzania had never experienced an HIV/AIDS epidemic, the

population aged 60 and over

would have been over 1.8 million.

The population in Tanzania is estimated to have around 134,000

fewer older people in 2006 than it

would have had in the absence of

HIV/AIDS. 

U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 21

Figure 19. 

Number of People Aged 60 and Over With and 

Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality in Selected 

Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006

(In thousands)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2007.

Zimbabwe

Zambia

Tanzania

South Africa

Mozambique

Kenya

Central African Republic

Cameroon

Botswana

Estimate with HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Estimate without HIV/AIDS-related mortality

790

98

112

881

913

260

288

1,449

1,537

931

983

3,512

3,810

1,690

1,824

415

507

618
By 2030, the projected impact of

HIV/AIDS on the size of the older

population is much more pronounced. In South Africa, the older

population is projected to number

around 4.8 million people in 2030.

If South Africa had never experienced an HIV/AIDS epidemic, the

future older population would be

much larger—just over 8.8 million,

a difference of about 4 million

people. The large impact of

HIV/AIDS on the size of the older

population is evident in the data

for other countries as well. 

CONCLUSION

The impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa has

reshaped the population structure

and age distribution in most countries. Approximately 2 million people died of HIV/AIDS in 2005 in

Sub-Saharan Africa, and the number of people infected with HIV is

still increasing (UNAIDS/WHO,

2006). The impact of HIV/AIDS

dramatically affects how countries

in Sub-Saharan Africa will age over

the next several decades. Despite

the devastating impact of HIV/AIDS

and the fact that it has the

youngest population of any region

of the world, Sub-Saharan Africa is

experiencing population aging.

The proportions of people aged 60

and over are currently low and are

projected to increase only modestly in many Sub-Saharan countries. However, most countries in

the region can expect the absolute

number of older people to grow

over the next several decades, 

in many instances more than

doubling in size. These growing

numbers of older people will age in

countries that are ill equipped to

deal with the challenges that aging

populations pose. Many SubSaharan African countries lack

social security systems and the

infrastructure needed to help assist

increasing numbers of older people. Additionally, most countries in

the region have very limited

resources and may be unlikely and

unable, given competing demands,

to use these to address the needs

of older people.

22 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 20. 

Projected Number of People Aged 60 and Over 

With and Without HIV/AIDS-Related Mortality in

Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2030

(In thousands)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2007.

Zimbabwe

Zambia

Tanzania

South Africa

Mozambique

Kenya

Central African Republic

Cameroon

Botswana

Projection with HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Projection without HIV/AIDS-related mortality

2,331

169

362

1,809

2,178

335

572

3,692

4,654

1,459

2,343

4,764

8,815

3,284

4,377

524

1,220

783
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Washington, DC.

Kinsella, Kevin and Victoria A.

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2001, U.S. Census Bureau,

International Population Report

(P95/01-1), U.S. Government

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Transition Theory,” Population

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(eds.), Demography of Aging,

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“Demographic Conditions for

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U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 23

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24 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 25

APPENDIX A: DETAILED TABLES

Table A-1.

Older Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990, 2006,

2015, and 2030

(In thousands)

Country/region

and year Total

population

Population aged

50 and over

Population aged

60 and over

Population aged

80 and over

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1990. . . .............................. 505,203 48,537 9.6 23,040 4.6 1,575 0.3

2006. . . .............................. 752,790 73,025 9.7 35,415 4.7 2,524 0.3

2015. . . .............................. 921,181 91,492 9.9 45,056 4.9 3,542 0.4

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,244,021 140,443 11.3 69,205 5.6 6,330 0.5

Angola

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,297 865 10.4 349 4.2 14 0.2

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,993 1,128 9.4 541 4.5 22 0.2

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,443 1,360 9.4 603 4.2 33 0.2

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,960 1,871 9.9 867 4.6 47 0.2

Benin

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,676 401 8.6 198 4.2 23 0.5

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,863 655 8.3 307 3.9 20 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,821 883 9.0 413 4.2 27 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,893 1,598 12.4 727 5.6 57 0.4

Botswana

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,263 128 10.2 70 5.6 10 0.8

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,788 186 10.4 98 5.5 14 0.8

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,007 234 11.6 123 6.1 20 1.0

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,215 307 13.9 169 7.6 31 1.4

Burkina Faso

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,336 788 9.5 379 4.6 23 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,903 1,081 7.8 547 3.9 33 0.2

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,141 1,373 7.6 662 3.7 47 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,384 2,500 9.1 1,100 4.0 79 0.3

Burundi

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,505 506 9.2 260 4.7 27 0.5

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,090 685 8.5 312 3.9 28 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,724 922 8.6 444 4.1 39 0.4

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,637 1,442 9.2 713 4.6 64 0.4

Cameroon

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,884 1,127 9.5 538 4.5 36 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,658 1,807 10.2 881 5.0 64 0.4

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,387 2,324 10.9 1,161 5.4 93 0.4

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,531 3,582 13.0 1,809 6.6 179 0.6

Central African Republic

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,084 381 12.3 186 6.0 7 0.2

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,303 454 10.5 260 6.0 24 0.6

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,896 497 10.1 264 5.4 33 0.7

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,732 632 11.0 335 5.8 41 0.7

Chad

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,841 573 9.8 270 4.6 13 0.2

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,649 905 9.4 440 4.6 29 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,631 1,106 9.5 544 4.7 39 0.3

2030. . . .............................. 15,114 1,542 10.2 792 5.2 66 0.4

Congo (Brazzaville)

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,265 236 10.4 118 5.2 6 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,702 317 8.6 161 4.3 13 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,754 412 8.7 196 4.1 17 0.4

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,892 689 10.0 338 4.9 27 0.4
26 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Table A-1.

Older Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990, 2006,

2015, and 2030—Con.

(In thousands)

Country/region

and year Total

population

Population aged

50 and over

Population aged

60 and over

Population aged

80 and over

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Congo (Kinshasa)

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,048 3,535 9.1 1,650 4.2 95 0.2

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,605 5,402 8.5 2,605 4.1 177 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85,145 7,225 8.5 3,519 4.1 272 0.3

2030. . . .............................. 130,704 12,693 9.7 6,063 4.6 547 0.4

Cote d’Ivoire

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,981 1,030 8.6 427 3.6 23 0.2

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,655 1,806 10.2 821 4.7 43 0.2

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,885 2,087 10.0 1,119 5.4 70 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26,079 3,268 12.5 1,545 5.9 155 0.6

Eritrea

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,996 320 10.7 162 5.4 18 0.6

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,787 513 10.7 268 5.6 23 0.5

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,927 627 10.6 346 5.8 32 0.5

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,875 1,014 12.9 495 6.3 64 0.8

Ethiopia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,197 4,573 9.5 2,156 4.5 124 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,778 7,077 9.5 3,302 4.4 220 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90,544 8,941 9.9 4,275 4.7 300 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115,985 13,424 11.6 6,555 5.7 540 0.5

Gabon

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 937 121 12.9 65 6.9 5 0.5

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,425 156 11.0 83 5.9 8 0.6

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 190 11.1 95 5.6 11 0.6

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,262 236 10.4 135 6.0 15 0.7

Gambia, The

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 949 87 9.1 42 4.5 5 0.5

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,642 159 9.7 73 4.5 5 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,080 214 10.3 102 4.9 7 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,912 345 11.9 172 5.9 14 0.5

Ghana

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,414 1,538 10.0 758 4.9 54 0.3

2006. . . .............................. 22,479 2,305 10.3 1,177 5.2 102 0.5

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26,475 3,230 12.2 1,505 5.7 148 0.6

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32,398 5,513 17.0 2,854 8.8 249 0.8

Guinea

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,279 656 10.4 314 5.0 20 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,690 985 10.2 484 5.0 33 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,242 1,234 10.1 610 5.0 48 0.4

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,919 1,800 10.0 911 5.1 82 0.5

Guinea-Bissau

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 996 99 9.9 47 4.7 4 0.4

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,443 153 10.6 70 4.9 4 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,726 187 10.8 94 5.4 6 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,231 282 12.7 136 6.1 12 0.5

Kenya

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,354 1,834 7.9 915 3.9 85 0.4

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35,891 3,044 8.5 1,449 4.0 126 0.3

2015. . . .............................. 44,753 4,268 9.5 2,025 4.5 180 0.4

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54,150 7,679 14.2 3,692 6.8 353 0.7
U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 27

Table A-1.

Older Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990, 2006,

2015, and 2030—Con.

(In thousands)

Country/region

and year Total

population

Population aged

50 and over

Population aged

60 and over

Population aged

80 and over

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Lesotho

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,721 217 12.6 119 6.9 12 0.7

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,122 273 12.9 148 7.0 20 0.9

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,142 292 13.6 159 7.4 24 1.1

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,085 288 13.8 176 8.4 29 1.4

Liberia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,117 200 9.5 89 4.2 6 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,044 304 10.0 140 4.6 7 0.2

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,923 385 9.8 186 4.8 10 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,206 507 9.7 248 4.8 18 0.3

Madagascar

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,633 1,181 10.2 620 5.3 41 0.4

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,872 1,798 9.5 881 4.7 82 0.4

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24,651 2,518 10.2 1,205 4.9 115 0.5

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36,797 4,422 12.0 2,262 6.1 208 0.6

Malawi

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,536 849 8.9 387 4.1 18 0.2

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,284 1,157 8.7 563 4.2 35 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,418 1,339 8.2 692 4.2 51 0.3

2030. . . .............................. 22,182 1,773 8.0 877 4.0 91 0.4

Mali

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,085 848 10.5 415 5.1 24 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,681 1,037 8.9 568 4.9 34 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,055 1,137 7.6 623 4.1 45 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,693 1,868 7.9 815 3.4 76 0.3

Mauritania

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,984 184 9.3 85 4.3 3 0.2

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,177 261 8.2 116 3.6 4 0.1

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,091 356 8.7 152 3.7 6 0.2

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,942 611 10.3 278 4.7 13 0.2

Mauritius

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,074 158 14.7 87 8.1 7 0.6

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,241 259 20.9 121 9.7 14 1.1

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,328 362 27.3 182 13.7 18 1.4

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,433 494 34.5 313 21.9 38 2.7

Mozambique

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,667 1,153 9.1 493 3.9 21 0.2

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,530 2,009 9.8 931 4.5 51 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24,166 2,333 9.7 1,146 4.7 77 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,340 2,785 8.9 1,459 4.7 136 0.4

Namibia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,471 148 10.0 74 5.0 9 0.6

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,044 230 11.2 116 5.7 10 0.5

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,092 255 12.2 138 6.6 14 0.7

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,018 287 14.2 165 8.2 25 1.3

Niger

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,945 713 9.0 310 3.9 11 0.1

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,525 1,112 8.9 511 4.1 21 0.2

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,152 1,420 8.8 654 4.1 31 0.2

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,586 2,164 9.2 1,014 4.3 55 0.2
28 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Table A-1.

Older Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990, 2006,

2015, and 2030—Con.

(In thousands)

Country/region

and year Total

population

Population aged

50 and over

Population aged

60 and over

Population aged

80 and over

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Nigeria

1990. . . .............................. 88,510 8,832 10.0 4,091 4.6 187 0.2

2006. . . .............................. 131,860 13,695 10.4 6,600 5.0 363 0.3

2015. . . .............................. 163,346 16,894 10.3 8,385 5.1 515 0.3

2030. . . .............................. 231,000 25,352 11.0 12,283 5.3 954 0.4

Rwanda

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,982 604 8.7 309 4.4 19 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,638 804 8.3 360 3.7 30 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,332 1,116 9.1 505 4.1 39 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,488 2,002 11.4 914 5.2 65 0.4

Senegal

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,846 707 9.0 331 4.2 20 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,191 1,203 9.9 577 4.7 40 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,207 1,624 10.7 790 5.2 60 0.4

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,515 2,753 13.4 1,357 6.6 121 0.6

Sierra Leone

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,221 472 11.2 214 5.1 17 0.4

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,005 614 10.2 309 5.1 18 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,367 676 9.2 355 4.8 24 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,094 981 9.7 466 4.6 37 0.4

Somalia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,675 641 9.6 336 5.0 33 0.5

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,863 710 8.0 353 4.0 28 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,389 1,076 9.5 424 3.7 34 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,863 1,869 11.1 925 5.5 50 0.3

South Africa

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,391 4,677 12.2 2,307 6.0 238 0.6

2006. . . .............................. 44,188 6,964 15.8 3,512 7.9 366 0.8

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42,261 7,594 18.0 4,120 9.7 478 1.1

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,414 7,646 19.9 4,764 12.4 739 1.9

Sudan

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26,050 2,225 8.5 979 3.8 74 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,574 3,569 9.3 1,593 4.1 68 0.2

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46,813 4,660 10.0 2,163 4.6 98 0.2

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,060 8,284 13.1 3,862 6.1 258 0.4

Swaziland

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 885 77 8.7 36 4.1 3 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,136 113 10.0 60 5.3 6 0.5

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,090 101 9.2 60 5.5 8 0.7

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 953 69 7.3 49 5.1 11 1.1

Tanzania

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,214 2,373 9.4 1,166 4.6 107 0.4

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,569 3,433 8.9 1,690 4.4 125 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46,123 4,294 9.3 2,175 4.7 179 0.4

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56,530 7,010 12.4 3,284 5.8 329 0.6

Togo

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,505 279 8.0 133 3.8 15 0.4

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,549 497 9.0 236 4.2 16 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,061 690 9.8 335 4.8 24 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,025 1,200 12.0 599 6.0 56 0.6
U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 29

Table A-1.

Older Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990, 2006,

2015, and 2030—Con.

(In thousands)

Country/region

and year Total

population

Population aged

50 and over

Population aged

60 and over

Population aged

80 and over

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Uganda

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,456 1,420 8.1 680 3.9 40 0.2

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,207 1,892 6.5 970 3.3 80 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,941 2,568 6.4 1,188 3.0 115 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67,286 4,461 6.6 2,078 3.1 186 0.3

Zambia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,978 665 8.3 314 3.9 24 0.3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,288 821 7.3 415 3.7 31 0.3

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,017 884 6.8 447 3.4 38 0.3

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,647 1,180 7.5 524 3.3 51 0.3

Zimbabwe

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,153 907 8.9 454 4.5 43 0.4

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,237 1,173 9.6 618 5.1 73 0.6

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,772 1,244 9.7 689 5.4 93 0.7

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,842 1,433 11.2 783 6.1 133 1.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.
30 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Table A-2.

Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990, 2006, 2015,

and 2030

(In thousands)

Country/region

and year All ages 0 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and over

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1990. . . .............................. 505,203 281,061 175,606 25,497 14,951 6,514 1,575

2006. . . .............................. 752,790 406,769 272,996 37,609 22,600 10,291 2,524

2015. . . .............................. 921,181 481,263 348,425 46,436 28,295 13,219 3,542

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,244,021 596,131 507,446 71,238 42,169 20,707 6,330

Angola

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,297 4,358 3,073 516 253 82 14

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,993 6,524 4,340 588 367 151 22

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,443 7,754 5,330 756 395 175 33

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,960 9,466 7,623 1,004 598 223 47

Benin

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,676 2,779 1,496 203 118 57 23

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,863 4,358 2,850 348 206 81 20

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,821 5,113 3,826 469 266 120 27

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,893 5,569 5,725 871 468 202 57

Botswana

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,263 710 424 58 39 22 10

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,788 871 731 88 52 31 14

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,007 862 912 111 66 37 20

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,215 834 1,073 139 82 56 31

Burkina Faso

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,336 4,909 2,638 409 251 105 23

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,903 8,019 4,803 533 351 163 33

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,141 10,265 6,503 711 412 203 47

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,384 14,651 10,233 1,401 725 296 79

Burundi

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,505 3,127 1,873 246 150 83 27

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,090 4,654 2,752 373 187 98 28

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,724 6,051 3,751 478 287 119 39

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,637 8,192 6,003 728 417 232 64

Cameroon

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,884 6,635 4,123 589 348 155 36

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,658 9,323 6,528 927 559 258 64

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,387 10,698 8,365 1,162 723 345 93

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,531 12,052 11,897 1,773 1,072 559 179

Central African Republic

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,084 1,656 1,046 194 130 50 7

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,303 2,312 1,537 194 148 87 24

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,896 2,481 1,918 232 142 89 33

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,732 2,558 2,541 298 194 100 41

Chad

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,841 3,306 1,963 303 181 75 13

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,649 5,621 3,123 465 284 127 29

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,631 6,487 4,038 562 344 161 39

2030. . . .............................. 15,114 7,273 6,299 750 487 238 66

Congo (Brazzaville)

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,265 1,258 771 118 77 35 6

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,702 2,123 1,263 156 96 52 13

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,754 2,660 1,681 216 120 59 17

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,892 3,488 2,716 350 212 99 27

Congo (Kinshasa)

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,048 22,392 13,120 1,885 1,099 456 95

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,605 37,088 21,115 2,797 1,679 749 177

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85,145 48,580 29,340 3,707 2,213 1,033 272

2030. . . .............................. 130,704 68,035 49,976 6,630 3,784 1,732 547
U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 31

Table A-2.

Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990, 2006, 2015,

and 2030—Con.

(In thousands)

Country/region

and year All ages 0 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and over

Cote d’Ivoire

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,981 6,734 4,217 604 298 105 23

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,655 9,156 6,693 985 560 218 43

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,885 10,395 8,402 968 733 316 70

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26,079 11,599 11,212 1,723 934 456 155

Eritrea

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,996 1,740 936 158 99 45 18

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,787 2,626 1,649 245 169 76 23

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,927 3,016 2,285 281 204 111 32

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,875 3,413 3,447 519 275 157 64

Ethiopia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,197 26,697 16,927 2,418 1,433 599 124

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,778 40,998 26,703 3,775 2,149 934 220

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90,544 47,115 34,488 4,665 2,773 1,203 300

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115,985 52,099 50,462 6,869 4,056 1,958 540

Gabon

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 937 485 332 57 40 20 5

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,425 757 512 73 48 27 8

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703 902 611 95 54 30 11

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,262 1,162 864 101 78 41 15

Gambia, The

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 949 533 330 44 25 12 5

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,642 901 581 86 48 20 5

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,080 1,101 764 112 67 29 7

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,912 1,383 1,184 174 105 52 14

Ghana

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,414 8,521 5,355 779 482 223 54

2006. . . .............................. 22,479 11,285 8,889 1,128 702 373 102

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26,475 11,973 11,272 1,725 893 464 148

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32,398 12,076 14,810 2,658 1,773 833 249

Guinea

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,279 3,407 2,216 342 206 88 20

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,690 5,318 3,387 501 309 141 33

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,242 6,681 4,327 625 381 181 48

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,919 9,512 6,607 889 557 273 82

Guinea-Bissau

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 996 549 348 52 28 14 4

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,443 751 539 83 46 20 4

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,726 867 672 93 62 26 6

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,231 1,016 932 147 80 43 12

Kenya

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,354 13,898 7,623 919 562 269 85

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35,891 19,117 13,729 1,596 885 438 126

2015. . . .............................. 44,753 22,803 17,681 2,243 1,266 579 180

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54,150 20,326 26,144 3,988 2,224 1,114 353

Lesotho

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,721 892 612 98 71 36 12

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,122 1,020 829 125 77 51 20

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,142 940 910 133 87 48 24

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,085 817 981 112 86 61 29

Liberia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,117 1,144 773 111 60 23 6

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,044 1,647 1,093 165 96 37 7

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,923 2,141 1,397 198 124 52 10

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,206 2,632 2,067 259 156 74 18
32 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Table A-2.

Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990, 2006, 2015,

and 2030—Con.

(In thousands)

Country/region

and year All ages 0 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and over

Madagascar

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,633 6,487 3,964 561 396 183 41

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,872 10,366 6,707 918 515 285 82

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24,651 13,075 9,058 1,313 751 339 115

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36,797 18,030 14,345 2,160 1,385 668 208

Malawi

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,536 5,425 3,262 462 264 104 18

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,284 7,661 4,466 594 364 163 35

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,418 9,249 5,830 647 433 208 51

2030. . . .............................. 22,182 11,624 8,785 896 499 287 91

Mali

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,085 4,749 2,487 433 269 122 24

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,681 6,888 3,756 468 371 164 34

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,055 8,910 5,008 513 368 211 45

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,693 13,556 8,269 1,053 507 232 76

Mauritania

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,984 1,110 691 99 59 23 3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,177 1,792 1,124 145 79 33 4

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,091 2,236 1,499 204 104 41 6

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,942 2,941 2,390 333 190 76 13

Mauritius

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,074 419 496 71 55 25 7

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,241 397 584 138 68 39 14

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,328 378 588 180 116 48 18

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,433 357 582 181 166 109 38

Mozambique

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,667 6,824 4,689 660 346 126 21

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,530 11,404 7,117 1,077 621 259 51

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24,166 13,277 8,557 1,187 737 332 77

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,340 16,372 12,184 1,326 860 463 136

Namibia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,471 821 503 74 43 22 9

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,044 1,024 790 114 71 34 10

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,092 927 910 117 81 43 14

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,018 704 1,027 123 83 56 25

Niger

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,945 4,486 2,746 403 221 78 11

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,525 7,191 4,221 602 354 136 21

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,152 9,243 5,488 766 443 181 31

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23,586 12,611 8,811 1,150 677 282 55

Nigeria

1990. . . .............................. 88,510 48,529 31,149 4,741 2,783 1,120 187

2006. . . .............................. 131,860 69,693 48,472 7,095 4,377 1,860 363

2015. . . .............................. 163,346 85,448 61,004 8,508 5,412 2,459 515

2030. . . .............................. 231,000 117,094 88,554 13,068 7,676 3,653 954

Rwanda

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,982 4,020 2,357 296 197 93 19

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,638 5,166 3,668 444 214 117 30

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,332 6,457 4,758 611 335 130 39

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,488 8,400 7,086 1,088 566 283 65

Senegal

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,846 4,456 2,683 376 218 94 20

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,191 6,467 4,521 626 370 167 40

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,207 7,711 5,871 835 499 231 60

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,515 9,056 8,706 1,396 832 404 121
U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 33

Table A-2.

Population by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1990, 2006, 2015,

and 2030—Con.

(In thousands)

Country/region

and year All ages 0 to 19 20 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and over

Sierra Leone

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,221 2,271 1,479 257 137 60 17

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,005 3,328 2,063 305 204 88 18

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,367 4,044 2,647 321 221 111 24

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,094 5,198 3,916 515 303 125 37

Somalia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,675 3,715 2,319 306 196 107 33

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,863 4,891 3,263 357 218 107 28

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,389 6,243 4,069 652 264 126 34

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,863 8,696 6,299 944 632 243 50

South Africa

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,391 18,325 15,389 2,370 1,417 652 238

2006. . . .............................. 44,188 18,213 19,010 3,452 2,092 1,054 366

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42,261 15,148 19,519 3,474 2,404 1,237 478

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,414 12,168 18,600 2,882 2,346 1,679 739

Sudan

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26,050 14,683 9,142 1,245 605 301 74

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,574 20,552 14,453 1,976 1,133 392 68

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46,813 23,074 19,080 2,497 1,467 598 98

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,060 27,742 27,035 4,422 2,585 1,019 258

Swaziland

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 885 508 300 41 23 10 3

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,136 614 409 54 35 19 6

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,090 552 438 41 32 19 8

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 953 440 444 20 20 19 11

Tanzania

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,214 14,527 8,315 1,207 707 352 107

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,569 21,496 13,639 1,743 1,063 502 125

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46,123 23,671 18,157 2,119 1,346 650 179

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56,530 23,185 26,335 3,727 1,939 1,015 329

Togo

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,505 2,069 1,156 146 81 37 15

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,549 2,997 2,055 261 153 67 16

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,061 3,616 2,755 355 212 99 24

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,025 4,797 4,028 601 364 179 56

Uganda

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,456 10,371 5,665 739 453 187 40

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,207 18,059 9,255 922 585 304 80

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,941 24,306 13,068 1,380 705 368 115

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67,286 39,980 22,845 2,382 1,300 593 186

Zambia

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,978 4,735 2,578 351 197 93 24

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,288 6,560 3,907 406 258 127 31

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,017 7,202 4,931 437 271 138 38

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,647 7,898 6,569 656 315 158 51

Zimbabwe

1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,153 5,819 3,427 453 272 139 43

2006. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,237 6,163 4,901 555 350 195 73

2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,772 6,025 5,504 554 379 217 93

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,842 5,276 6,133 650 371 279 133

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.
34 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Table A-3a.

Average Annual Growth Rate by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries:

2006–2015 and 2015–2030

Country/region

2006–2015 2015–2030

All ages 50 and over 60 and over All ages 50 and over 60 and over

Sub-Saharan Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.0 2.9 2.9

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.4

Benin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.3 3.3 1.8 4.0 3.8

Botswana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 2.5 2.6 0.7 1.8 2.1

Burkina Faso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 2.7 2.1 2.7 4.0 3.4

Burundi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.3 3.9 2.5 3.0 3.2

Cameroon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.8 3.1 1.7 2.9 3.0

Central African Republic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 1.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 1.6

Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.5

Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.9 2.2 2.5 3.4 3.6

Congo (Kinshasa) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.2 3.3 2.9 3.8 3.6

Cote d’Ivoire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 1.6 3.4 1.5 3.0 2.1

Eritrea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.2 2.9 1.9 3.2 2.4

Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 2.6 2.9 1.7 2.7 2.8

Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 2.3

Gambia, The. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.3 3.7 2.2 3.2 3.5

Ghana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 3.8 2.7 1.3 3.6 4.3

Guinea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7

Guinea-Bissau . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.3 3.2 1.7 2.7 2.5

Kenya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.8 3.7 1.3 3.9 4.0

Lesotho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.8 0.8 –0.2 –0.1 0.7

Liberia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.6 3.2 1.9 1.8 1.9

Madagascar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 3.7 3.5 2.7 3.8 4.2

Malawi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 1.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.6

Mali. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 1.0 1.0 3.0 3.3 1.8

Mauritania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 3.4 3.0 2.5 3.6 4.0

Mauritius . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 3.7 4.6 0.5 2.1 3.6

Mozambique. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.7 2.3 1.7 1.2 1.6

Namibia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.3 1.1 1.9 –0.2 0.8 1.2

Niger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.9

Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.5

Rwanda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.6 3.8 2.3 3.9 3.9

Senegal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 3.3 3.5 2.0 3.5 3.6

Sierra Leone. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.5 1.8

Somalia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 4.6 2.1 2.6 3.7 5.2

South Africa . . . ........................... –0.5 1.0 1.8 –0.6 0.0 1.0

Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 3.0 3.4 2.0 3.8 3.9

Swaziland . . . ............................. –0.5 –1.3 0.0 –0.9 –2.5 –1.3

Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.5 2.8 1.4 3.3 2.7

Togo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 3.7 3.9 2.3 3.7 3.9

Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 3.4 2.3 3.5 3.7 3.7

Zambia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.1

Zimbabwe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.9 0.9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.
U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 35

Table A-3b.

Percent Change by Selected Age Group for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006–2015 and

2015–2030

Country/region

2006–2015 2015–2030

All ages 50 and over 60 and over All ages 50 and over 60 and over

Sub-Saharan Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.4 25.3 27.2 35.0 53.5 53.6

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4 20.5 11.6 31.3 37.6 43.8

Benin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.9 34.8 34.6 31.3 81.0 76.0

Botswana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.3 25.7 26.3 10.3 31.5 36.9

Burkina Faso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.5 27.0 21.0 50.9 82.2 66.1

Burundi . . . ............................... 32.6 34.6 42.1 45.8 56.4 60.6

Cameroon . . . . . . .......................... 21.1 28.6 31.9 28.7 54.1 55.8

Central African Republic. . . . . . . . ............ 13.8 9.4 1.8 17.1 27.3 26.6

Chad . . . ................................. 20.5 22.2 23.5 29.9 39.4 45.6

Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . ................ 28.4 30.1 22.0 45.0 67.1 72.5

Congo (Kinshasa) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33.9 33.8 35.1 53.5 75.7 72.3

Cote d’Ivoire . . . ........................... 18.3 15.6 36.3 24.9 56.6 38.1

Eritrea . . . ................................ 23.8 22.3 29.3 32.9 61.7 43.0

Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.1 26.3 29.5 28.1 50.2 53.3

Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.5 21.3 13.5 32.8 24.1 42.0

Gambia, The. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.7 34.6 39.9 40.0 61.5 67.8

Ghana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.8 40.1 27.8 22.4 70.7 89.6

Guinea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.3 25.3 26.1 46.4 45.8 49.4

Guinea-Bissau . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 22.5 33.6 29.2 50.9 44.6

Kenya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.7 40.2 39.8 21.0 79.9 82.3

Lesotho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 7.0 7.5 –2.6 –1.5 10.4

Liberia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.9 26.5 33.6 32.7 31.8 33.1

Madagascar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30.6 40.0 36.8 49.3 75.7 87.7

Malawi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.6 15.8 23.1 35.1 32.4 26.7

Mali. . . . .................................. 28.9 9.6 9.7 57.4 64.4 30.8

Mauritania . . . . ........................... 28.8 36.2 31.3 45.2 71.8 83.1

Mauritius . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 39.8 50.9 7.9 36.4 71.6

Mozambique. . . ........................... 17.7 16.1 23.0 29.7 19.4 27.3

Namibia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 10.8 19.0 –3.5 12.9 19.3

Niger . . . . . . .............................. 29.0 27.6 28.1 46.0 52.4 54.9

Nigeria . . . ................................ 23.9 23.4 27.1 41.4 50.1 46.5

Rwanda . . . ............................... 27.9 38.8 40.3 41.8 79.4 80.8

Senegal . . . ............................... 24.7 35.1 36.9 34.9 69.5 71.9

Sierra Leone. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 10.1 14.8 37.0 44.9 31.2

Somalia . . . . .............................. 28.5 51.7 20.3 48.1 73.6 118.1

South Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –4.4 9.0 17.3 –9.1 0.7 15.6

Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.4 30.6 35.8 34.7 77.8 78.5

Swaziland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –4.1 –11.3 –0.1 –12.6 –31.3 –17.8

Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.6 25.1 28.7 22.6 63.3 51.0

Togo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.3 39.0 42.3 42.0 73.8 78.6

Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.8 35.7 22.5 68.5 73.7 74.9

Zambia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3 7.6 7.6 20.2 33.5 17.1

Zimbabwe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 6.0 11.5 0.6 15.3 13.6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.
36 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Table A-4.

Median Age for Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006,

2015, and 2030

Country/region 2006 2015 2030

Sub-Saharan Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.2 19.0 21.1

Angola . . . ............................... 17.9 18.4 20.0

Benin . . . ................................ 17.6 19.1 23.4

Botswana. . . . . ........................... 20.6 23.2 26.4

Burkina Faso . . . ......................... 16.5 17.0 18.4

Burundi . . . .............................. 16.6 17.1 18.9

Cameroon . . . ............................ 18.8 20.0 23.2

Central African Republic. . . . . . . . ........... 18.4 19.7 22.6

Chad. . . ................................. 16.2 17.5 21.0

Congo (Brazzaville). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.6 17.4 19.7

Congo (Kinshasa) . . . . . . . . . ............... 16.1 16.8 19.1

Cote d’Ivoire . . . .......................... 19.2 20.1 22.8

Eritrea . . . ............................... 17.8 19.6 23.5

Ethiopia . . . .............................. 17.8 19.1 22.5

Gabon . . . ............................... 18.6 18.6 19.4

Gambia, The. . . .......................... 17.7 18.6 21.3

Ghana . . . ............................... 19.9 22.4 27.0

Guinea . . . ............................... 17.7 17.9 18.6

Guinea-Bissau . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.0 19.9 22.3

Kenya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 19.5 25.4

Lesotho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.9 22.7 25.4

Liberia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.1 18.0 19.7

Madagascar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.7 18.6 20.5

Malawi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.6 17.3 19.0

Mali. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 15.8 16.8

Mauritania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 17.9 20.3

Mauritius . . . ............................. 30.8 34.2 38.6

Mozambique . . . .......................... 17.4 18.0 19.0

Namibia . . . .............................. 20.0 22.4 27.3

Niger. . . ................................. 16.5 16.6 18.5

Nigeria . . . . . ............................. 18.7 18.9 19.7

Rwanda . . . .............................. 18.5 18.9 21.0

Senegal . . . .............................. 18.6 19.7 23.0

Sierra Leone. . . .......................... 17.4 17.8 19.3

Somalia . . . . . . ........................... 17.6 17.7 19.3

South Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.1 26.4 30.3

Sudan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 20.4 23.3

Swaziland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.5 19.8 21.5

Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.5 19.4 24.3

Togo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3 19.4 21.1

Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.9 15.2 15.8

Zambia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.7 17.8 19.8

Zimbabwe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.9 21.3 24.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.
U.S. Census Bureau Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 37

Table A-5.

Total Fertility Rate and Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex for

Sub-Saharan African Countries: 2006

Country/region

Total

fertility

rate

Life expectancy at birth

Both sexes Male Female

Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . 5.3 49.4 48.4 50.3

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 37.3 36.5 38.2

Benin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 53.0 51.9 54.2

Botswana. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 51.2 52.0 50.4

Burkina Faso. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 48.9 47.3 50.4

Burundi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 50.8 50.1 51.6

Cameroon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 52.3 51.7 53.0

Central African Republic . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 43.5 43.5 43.6

Chad. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 47.0 46.0 48.1

Congo (Brazzaville) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 52.8 51.6 54.0

Congo (Kinshasa) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 56.8 54.6 59.1

Cote d’Ivoire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 48.8 46.2 51.5

Eritrea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 59.0 57.4 60.7

Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 49.0 47.9 50.2

Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 54.5 53.2 55.8

Gambia, The . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 54.1 52.3 56.0

Ghana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 58.8 58.0 59.5

Guinea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 49.5 48.3 50.7

Guinea-Bissau . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 46.9 45.1 48.7

Kenya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 54.2 54.3 54.2

Lesotho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 39.8 40.4 39.0

Liberia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 39.6 38.0 41.3

Madagascar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 61.8 59.9 63.7

Malawi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 42.4 42.8 41.9

Mali . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 49.1 47.2 51.0

Mauritania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9 53.1 50.9 55.4

Mauritius . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 72.6 68.7 76.7

Mozambique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 40.8 41.2 40.4

Namibia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 43.4 44.5 42.3

Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5 43.8 43.8 43.7

Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 47.1 46.5 47.7

Rwanda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 48.2 47.2 49.3

Senegal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 56.3 55.0 57.7

Sierra Leone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 40.2 38.0 42.5

Somalia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 48.5 46.7 50.3

South Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 42.7 43.2 42.2

Sudan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 47.9 47.1 48.8

Swaziland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 32.6 32.1 33.2

Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.9 49.7 48.5 50.9

Togo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 57.4 55.4 59.5

Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 51.0 50.1 51.9

Zambia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 38.1 38.0 38.1

Zimbabwe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 39.3 40.4 38.2

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2007.
38 Population Aging in Sub-Saharan Africa: Demographic Dimensions 2006 U.S. Census Bureau

Table A-6.

Adult (Ages 15 to 49) HIV Prevalence Rates for SubSaharan African Countries: 2005

Country Prevalence rate estimate

(percent)

Sub-Saharan Africa 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.

Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7

Benin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8

Botswana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.1

Burkina Faso . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3

Burundi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.9

Cameroon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4

Central African Republic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.4

Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5

Congo (Brazzaville) 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.

Congo (Kinshasa) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9

Cote d’Ivoire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0

Eritrea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6

Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7

Gabon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2

Gambia, The. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1

Ghana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3

Guinea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6

Guinea-Bissau . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2

Kenya. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1

Lesotho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2

Liberia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4

Madagascar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5

Malawi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.0

Mali. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7

Mauritania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7

Mauritius . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6

Mozambique. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1

Namibia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.8

Niger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4

Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3

Rwanda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0

Senegal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9

Sierra Leone. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2

Somalia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9

South Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.5

Sudan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6

Swaziland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.5

Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4

Togo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1

Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0

Zambia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.9

Zimbabwe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.6

Sources: UNAIDS/WHO, 2006 and U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2007.
Sudan 

Algeria 

Mali 

Chad 

Niger 

Egypt 

Angola 

Ethiopia 

Nigeria 

South Africa 

Namibia 

Mauritania 

Zambia 

Kenya 

Somalia 

Libya 

Botswana 

Morocco 

Cameroon 

Zimbabwe 

Gabon 

Ghana 

Guinea 

Uganda 

Congo (Kinshasa) 

Mozambique Madagascar 

Tanzania 

Tunisia 

Cote 

d'Ivoire Central African 

Republic 

Senegal 

Burkina Faso 

Benin 

Eritrea 

Congo 

(Brazzaville) 

Malawi 

Liberia 

Togo 

Sierra 

Leone 

Lesotho 

Burundi 

Rwanda 

Guinea- Djibouti Bissau 

Swaziland 

The Gambia 

Equatorial 

Guinea 

Cape 

Verde 

Sao Tome 

and Principe 

Western 

Sahara 

Seychelles 

Reunion 

Mauritius 

Africa: 2006

Sub-Saharan countries