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U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Open-File Report 2006–1025

Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand
Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand

By John L. Sznopek

Open-File Report 2006–1025

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior

Gale A. Norton, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

P. Patrick Leahy, Acting Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2006

For product and ordering information:

World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod

Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS

For more information on the USGS--the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, 

natural hazards, and the environment:

World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov

Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS

Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the 

U.S. Government.

Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to 

reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report.

Suggested citation:

Sznopek, J.L., 2006, Drivers of U.S. mineral demand: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2006–1025, 12 p.
iii

Contents

Introduction ................... ................................................................................................................................ 1

Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand ................................................................................................................. 3

Population ............. ................................................................................................................................ 3

Consumption ......... ................................................................................................................................ 3

Construction ......... ................................................................................................................................ 5

Highways and Bridges ............................................................................................................... 6

Residential Housing .................................................................................................................... 7

Transportation ...................................................................................................................................... 7

Legislation ............................................................................................................................................. 8

Consumer Choices ............................................................................................................................. 12

Recycling ............................................................................................................................................. 13

Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 14

References Cited ........................................................................................................................................ 14

Figures

1. U.S. gross domestic product and total apparent consumption of raw materials, 1900–

2000 ................................................................................................................................................... 2

2. U.S. population and total apparent consumption of raw materials, 1900–2000 .................... 3

3. U.S. apparent consumption of raw materials, 1900–2000 ......................................................... 4

4. U.S. composition percentages of stone and sand and gravel group, 1900–2000 ................. 4

5. U.S. apparent per capita consumption of crushed stone and construction sand and 

gravel, 1900–2000 ............................................................................................................................ 5

6. U.S. apparent consumption of cement, 1900–2000 .................................................................... 6

7. U.S. iron and steel products used in the construction sector, 1980–2000 ............................. 6

8. Number of U.S. vehicles and aircraft, 1960–2000 ...................................................................... 8

9. Passenger-miles of travel by aircraft and highway, 1960–2000 .............................................. 9

10. U.S. apparent consumption and price of platinum-group metals, 1900–2000 ..................... 10

11. U.S. apparent consumption of lead, 1900–2000 ........................................................................ 11

12. U.S. apparent consumption and price of indium, 1936–2000 ................................................. 12

Tables

1. U.S. apparent consumption annual average growth rate ........................................................ 3

2. Materials used to build a typical 2,272 square foot single family home ................................ 7

3. U.S. apparent consumption of raw materials used in the transportation sector, 

1975–2000 .......................................................................................................................................... 8

4. U.S. passenger-miles of travel by mode, 1985–2000 .................................................................. 9

5. U.S. estimated indium consumption and annual average indium price, 2000–2004 .......... 12
iv

Conversion Factors

Multiply By To obtain

square foot (ft2) 0.09290 square meter (m2)

kilogram (kg) 2.205 pound avoirdupois (lb)

miles per gallon (m/gal) 0.425099 kilometers per liter (km/L)
Introduction

The word “demand” has different meanings for different 

people. To some, it means their “wants and needs,” to others 

it is what they consume. Yet, when considering economics, 

demand refers to the specific amounts of goods or services that 

individuals will purchase at various prices. Demand is measured over a given time period. It is determined by a number 

of factors including income, tastes, and the price of complementary and substitute goods. In this paper, the term consumption is used fairly synonymously with the term demand. Most 

mineral commodities, like iron ore, copper, zinc, and gravel, 

are intermediate goods, which means that they are used in the 

production of other goods, called final goods. Demand for 

intermediate goods is called derived demand because such 

demand is derived from the demand for final goods.

When demand increases for a commodity, generally the 

price rises. With everything else held constant, this increases 

the profits for those who provide this commodity. Normally, 

this would increase profits of existing producers and attract 

new producers to the market. When demand for a commodity 

decreases, generally the price falls. Normally, this would cause 

profits to fall and, as a consequence, the least efficient firms 

may be forced from the industry.

Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand

By John L. Sznopek

Demand changes for specific materials as final goods or 

production techniques are reengineered while maintaining or 

improving product performance, for example, the use of aluminum in the place of copper in long distance electrical transmission lines or plastic replacing steel in automobile bumpers. 

Substitution contributes to efficient material usage by utilizing 

cheaper or technically superior materials. In this way, it may 

also alleviate materials scarcity. If a material becomes relatively scarce (and thus more expensive), a more abundant (and 

less expensive) material generally replaces it (Wagner and 

others, 2003, p. 91).

Derived Demand

—Adapted from Miller, 1998, p. 609–610.

The demand for each of the factors (components) 

of production is often referred to as a “derived demand.” 

This emphasizes the relation between demand for the 

final good(s) and the demand for the factors used in 

production. If for some reason the demand for highperformance batteries would increase, then the “derived 

demand” for lithium used in the manufacturing of batteries could also increase. Likewise, the demand for 

labor (another factor) in the battery industry could also 

increase in response to the public’s greater demand for 

batteries. Since mineral commodities are usually not 

final goods, as they are used in the manufacturing of final 

goods, the demand for most mineral commodities is a 

derived demand.

Palladium’s Demand and Supply 

Fluctuations

—Adapted from White, 2002

Anticipating price increases associated with higher 

demand and lower supply of palladium metal (purchased for 

use in catalytic converters), Ford Motor Company had built 

an unusually large inventory stock by the beginning of 2002. 

Ford’s stockpile resulted from growing needs and uncertainties associated with irregular supplies from Russia and South 

Africa, where most of the world’s output comes from.

For most of the last three decades, progress in 

emissions technology had relied on increasing use of 

the related precious metals platinum, palladium, and 

rhodium. Through most of the 1980s, platinum was 

viewed as the most effective of the metal catalysts. Palladium, which was cheaper, was not widely used in the 

auto industry. From 1992 to 1996, global auto-industry 

demand for the palladium metal nearly quintupled, to 2.4 

million troy ounces, according to estimates by Johnson 

Matthey plc, 2006. Prices rose along with demand in 

the early 1990s, but automakers expected the market 

would continue to remain roughly in balance, according 

to industry veterans. But in 1997, the Russians upset the 

market’s stability by holding up palladium shipments. 

By early 1998, this disruption to supply resulted in a 

price surge to a then record level of $350 per troy ounce. 

Palladium prices jumped again in 1999, amid continuing 

uncertainty about Russian shipments and by spring 2000, 

the major metals exchange in Tokyo temporarily froze the 

price of palladium at $700 per troy ounce.
2 Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 

As the increasingly affluent Americans entered the 21st 

century, they continued to increase their consumption of goods 

and services. A reflection of this demand is seen in the U.S. 

gross domestic product (GDP) (figure 1). GDP represents the 

production of all final goods and services within a country and 

is the broadest measure of the wealth of a country’s economy. 

The overall U.S. economy, represented by GDP, rose from 

311 billion dollars in 1900 to 9,224 billion dollars in 2000 (in 

constant chained 1996 dollars), an average annual increase of 

88 billion dollars.

Palladium’s Demand and Supply 

Fluctuations—Continued

Ford, which by some estimates was the heaviest 

palladium user in the auto industry, consumed about 1.5 

million troy ounces of the metal in North America in 2000, 

by Johnson Matthey plc estimates. As Ford continued 

buying in the beginning of 2001, the company was focused 

only on building up supplies to protect against a lack of 

material that would halt production. Continued anxiety 

about Russian supplies pushed prices to a new record 

of $1,094 per troy ounce in January, 2001. On the supply side, high prices had spurred mine operators in South 

Africa to increase palladium production. Concurrently, 

the unpredictable Russian supply began to stabilize after 

reaching the peak price above $1,000 per troy ounce in 

January 2001.

By late 2001, improved catalytic converters would 

allow Ford to reduce its use of precious metals by 50 

Palladium’s Demand and Supply 

Fluctuations—Continued

percent. Ford now had excessive inventory that it had 

much less need for and overall demand generally began 

to fall as supplies stabilized. It appeared that the value 

of Ford’s inventory of palladium was about to plunge. 

Demand was falling because other automakers had also 

succeeded in reducing their use of palladium. Likewise, 

demand from the electronics industry, which also consumes a large amount of palladium for use in capacitors, 

had diminished with the overall weakening of the world 

economy. The precious metal markets responded to the 

decrease in demand and increase in supply as palladium 

prices fell steadily to their lowest levels since 1999 -- 

about $350 per troy ounce. In January 2002, Ford Motor 

Company wrote down $1 billion as they marked down 

the value of its excess holdings to the market price at the 

end of 2001, which was $440 per troy ounce.

Figure 1. U.S. gross domestic product in constant 1996 dollars and total apparent consumption of raw materials 

by weight, 1900–2000 (Johnston and Williamson, 2003, and Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2002; and Kelly and 

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Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand

Population

Although an increasing population demands more materials, significant economic events, such as the Great Depression 

of the 1930s, the oil crisis in the 1970s, and the 1980s recession negatively affected mineral demand. As shown in figure 

2, the U.S. population has steadily increased, with the exception of a period during World War II, throughout the 20th century. Meanwhile, U.S. consumption of nonfood and nonfuel 

raw materials1 trended similarly to the U.S. population with 

significant downturns during the economic events noted above.

Consumption

Consumption of raw materials from 1900–2000, as 

measured by domestic apparent consumption2, increased from 

134 million metric tons (Mt) to 3.56 billion metric tons (Gt), 

more than a 26-fold increase. During this time period, U.S. 

consumption of raw materials grew at an average annual rate 

of 3.1 percent or approximately 21⁄2 times the U.S population 

growth rate of 1.3 percent. Table 1 lists the average annual 

growth rates of U.S. consumption over the decades within the 

20th century and for individual years from 1991 through 2000.

The domestic consumption of selected raw material groups 

during the 20th century is shown in figure 3. This graph clearly 

shows that the growth of the stone and sand and gravel group 

1

Materials consumption includes agricultural materials, industrial minerals, 

organics, primary and recycled paper, primary and secondary metals, sand and 

gravel, stone, and wood.

2

Apparent consumption is defined as follows: apparent consumption = production + imports - exports ± stock change.

Figure 2. U.S. population and total apparent consumption of raw materials by weight, 1900–2000 (U.S. 

Census Bureau, 2001; and Kelly and Matos, 2004). ����������������������������

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Table 1. U.S. apparent consumption annual average growth rate, 

in percent, by decades, 1900–2000, and yearly for 1991–2000

[Source: Kelly and Matos, 2004]

Decade

U.S. apparent consumption percentage growth 

rate

Year

U.S. apparent consumption percentage 

growth rate

1900–10 6.5 1991 -6.2

1910–20 0.8 1992 4.3

1920–30 4.2 1993 6

1930–40 1.7 1994 6.1

1940–50 4.8 1995 1.5

1950–60 5.1 1996 4.7

1960–70 3.3 1997 2.6

1970–80 0.2 1998 5

1980–90 1.6 1999 4.2

1990–2000 3 2000 2.9

Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 3
4 Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 

overwhelms the growth in the other groups. In the year 2000, 

the stone and sand and gravel group represented more than 76 

percent of total U.S. apparent consumption, based on weight.

The stone and sand and gravel group is composed of four 

mineral commodities: construction sand and gravel, industrial sand and gravel, crushed stone, and dimension stone. 

Since the mid-1950s, dimension stone and industrial sand and 

gravel have made up less than two percent of this group. The 

remaining two commodities, construction sand and gravel and 

crushed stone, defined as construction aggregate, account for 

the majority of raw materials consumed during the 20th century. These aggregates are key components in the construction 

of the interstate highway system. Reviewing the bar chart in 

figure 4, construction sand and gravel and crushed stone, combined, represent more than 90 percent of the stone and sand 

and gravel group from 1900 to 2000 (Kelly and Matos, 2004).

Figure 3. U.S. apparent consumption of raw materials by weight, 1900–2000 (Kelly and Matos, 2004).

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Figure 4. Components of stone and sand and gravel group, 1900–2000 (Kelly and Matos, 2004).

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Construction

Population growth along urban corridors throughout the 

United States, such as the Baltimore-Washington corridor or 

the Denver-Boulder Front Range corridor, not only required 

materials for constructing new buildings (residential and 

commercial), but also continued to place constraints on the 

transportation infrastructure. Heavy use resulted in increased 

necessity of maintenance, replacement, and additions to 

existing infrastructure. Apparent consumption per person of 

aggregates was only slightly more than 0.5 metric ton (t) in 

1900, but by 2000 had jumped by a factor of about 20, to 9.7 

t (figure 5). The economic slow-down of the early 1980s and 

1990s and the resultant decline of apparent consumption are 

shown in figure 5.

In 2002, 1,530 Mt of crushed stone (DiFrancesco and 

Tepordei, 2004) and 1,130 Mt of construction sand and gravel 

(Porter and Bolen, 2004) were consumed. The next two mineral commodities in order of amount consumed were cement 

(110 Mt) (van Oss and Kelly, 2004) and steel (107 Mt) (Kelly 

and Fenton, 2004), more than a magnitude of order less (in 

weight) than the aggregates.

Production and consumption of cement are fundamental 

indicators of the health of the construction industry. Almost 

all cement is incorporated into concrete that is used in the construction of bridges, buildings, highways, and other infrastructure. In general, the demand for cement (and cement-based 

products) expanded during the 20th century, paralleling the 

growth in the construction industry. After World War II, the 

construction of the U.S. infrastructure was set in motion and 

consumption of cement surged, continuing until the late 1960s. 

For the next 20 years, cement consumption was volatile; in the 

1990s, its upward trend resumed (figure 6).

When the demand for infrastructure expands, the demand 

for steel also increases. Steels, which are primarily alloys of 

iron and carbon, are the predominant structural engineering 

materials, and the building material of choice for commercial 

construction for reasons of strength, durability, and recyclability. In addition to such large construction projects as steel 

Cement

—Adapted from U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1980, p. 143-158.

Cement, one of the components of concrete, comprises 10 

to 15 percent by volume of the concrete mixture of cement, 

water, and aggregates. Through a process called hydration, 

the cement and water harden and bind the aggregates into 

a rocklike mass called concrete. Over 90 percent of the 

cement produced in the United States is portland cement, 

with the remaining being masonry cement. Portland 

cement, a hydraulic cement, has the property of hardening 

under water. The name “portland” was chosen because the 

set cement resembled a building stone quarried from the 

Isle of Portland off the southern coast of England.

Figure 5. U.S. apparent consumption of crushed stone and construction sand and gravel per capita, 1900–2000 (U.S. 

Census Bureau, 2001; and Kelly and Matos, 2004).

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Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 5
6 Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 

bridges, steel has established a presence in residential home 

building. The distribution of iron and steel products to the 

construction sector has trended upward during the period from 

1980 through 2000 and is shown in figure 7.

Highways and Bridges

Every day, almost 4 billion vehicles cross bridges in the 

United States (U.S. Federal Highway Administration, 2004). 

Figure 6. U.S. apparent consumption of cement, 1900–2000 (Kelly and Matos, 2004).

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Figure 7. U.S. iron and steel products used in the construction sector, 1980–2000 (Kelly and Matos, 2004).

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The public expects these structures to be safe and accommodate this volume of traffic. However, aging highway infrastructure and increasing traffic means that maintenance has become 

a major focus necessary to ensure the safety of the people who 

use the U.S. transportation system.

In the 1990s, legislators directed funds into the U.S. 

infrastructure with the intention of improving bridges and 

roads and thereby increasing safety. More construction funding, authorized by the Intermodal Surface Transportation 

Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) and the Transportation Equity 

Act for the 21st Century (TEA–21) in 1998, resulted in the 

improvement of many highways. With generally better pavements and increased capacity, the new or improved highways 

are safer, and traffic flows more smoothly (Public Roads, 

2000). From 1990 through 2003, the total Federal highway 

program cost outlays more than doubled from $14.3 to $30.2 

billion. This included $6.4 billion for the national highway 

system, 21.3 percent of total; $3.3 billion for the bridge program, 11.0 percent of total; and $127.6 million for safety, less 

than 1.0 percent of total (U.S. Federal Highway Administration, 2004).

Residential Housing

From size and configuration to quality and convenience, 

U.S. housing changed dramatically during the 20th century, 

evolving to the point where new homes provide comforts and 

a quality of life unknown to previous generations. For most 

Americans, housing quality improved for throughout the 20th 

century. This is obvious by looking at almost any measure. In 

1900, a typical new home had one or no bathroom and two or 

three bedrooms. In 2000, the typical American new home contained three or more bedrooms, two and one-half bathrooms, 

a garage for two or more cars, and central air conditioning 

(National Association of Home Builders, 2003).

As the U.S. population increased during the 20th century, 

the total number of occupied housing units rose from 16 million units in 1900 to 107 million units in 2000. The average 

floor area of a residence has also increased substantially, while 

the average size of a residential plot area has declined as land 

values have steadily increased. The size of a typical new home 

in 1900 was 1,000 to 1,200 square feet compared to 2,265 

square feet in 2000. The demand for building materials has 

soared as a result of the new construction of more and larger 

homes. Many different types of material go into building a 

single-family home. Table 2 was compiled by the National 

Association of Home Builders and shows a list of the materials 

used to build a typical 2,272-square-foot home.

Transportation

The transportation industry accounted for 270 billion constant 1996 dollars or almost 3 percent of the U.S. GDP in 2001 

(U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2004a). The manufacturing of vehicles consumes vast quantities of raw materials, 

such as aluminum, copper, glass, iron and steel, lead, platinumgroup metals, plastics, rubber, tungsten, and zinc.

Steel Bridge Pilings

—Adapted from Steel Bridges, 2003

The New Woodrow Wilson Bridge, which crosses over 

the Potomac River in the Washington, D.C. area, will be 

supported on piers resting on a total of 744 steel pipe piles 

ranging in diameter from 48 to 72 inches. The 41-year-old 

Woodrow Wilson Bridge has been a traffic bottleneck for 

many years. It is being replaced by a pair of parallel 6,000-

feet, 12-lane bridges, which are 20 feet higher than the old 

bridge. The increased height means fewer bridge openings 

for ships and thus considerably fewer traffic interruptions. 

Steel pipe pilings were selected based on physical properties needed for the site’s conditions. This bridge project 

will require 47,000 tons of steel.

Table 2. Materials used to build a typical 2,272-squarefoot single-family home

[Source: National Association of Home Builders, 2004, p. 7]

Item Amount

Bathtubs 2

Cabinets, kitchen 15

Cabinets, other 5

Ceiling material 2,335 square feet

Concrete 19 tons

Doors, closet 6

Doors exterior 3

Doors, garage 2

Doors, patio 1

Ducting 226 linear feet

Fireplace 1

Flooring materials 2,269 square feet

Insulation 3,061 square feet

Lumber, framing 13,837 board feet

Roofing material 3,103 square feet

Sheathing 13,118 square feet

Shower stall 1

Siding, exterior 3,206 square feet

Sinks, bathroom 3

Toilets 3

Wall finish, interior 6,050 square feet

Windows 19

Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 7
8 Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 

Iron and steel, by far, account for the bulk of materials that go 

into the manufacturing of vehicles. However, aluminum consumption has been increasing faster than that of iron and steel, the latter 

being relatively flat during the period from 1975 to 2000 (table 3). 

With the exception of lead used as a gasoline additive (phased out 

by 1996) (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1994) and iron 

and steel, the use of the commodities listed in table 3 increased 

between 1975 and 2000. Aluminum consumption had the largest 

increase, more than quadrupling during this time period.

Figure 8 illustrates the trends for the increasing number 

of U.S. aircraft, and land vehicles. The number of U.S. land 

vehicles increased from 76.5 million in 1960 to 227 million 

in 2000, a 2.7 percent average annual growth rate. In contrast, 

the number of U.S. aircraft appeared to have peaked in 1980, 

followed by a slight decrease until 2000, when the number 

increased to a new high. From 1960 to 2000, the number of U.S. 

aircraft, increased from 78,700 to 226,000, a 2.6 percent average annual growth rate, which is about the same as that of land 

vehicles (U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2004b).

Another example of the increasing demand placed on 

the transportation sector is illustrated in table 4, where the 

transportation demand, measured in passenger-miles of travel 

(PMT), is shown for various modes. Total U.S. PMT increased 

more than 48 percent from 1985 to 2000, going from 3.20 trillion to 4.75 trillion. From 1985 to 2000, the light truck mode 

had the highest percentage increase in PMT, rising 113 percent 

(figure 9). The light truck mode includes minivans, pickup 

trucks, and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). This large change 

may be attributed to Americans replacing their passenger 

cars with SUVs. From 1992 to 1997, the number of SUVs on 

American roads doubled to 13.8 million vehicles. In the same 

period the number of vehicles included in the category of light 

trucks was higher than the number of passenger cars for the 

first time (Motavalli, 2004). The increase in the number of 

vehicles, the number of miles traveled, plus a shift to larger 

vehicles increases the amount of materials needed to manufacture the vehicles and to construct and maintain the roads and 

highways to handle the higher volume of traffic.

Legislation

Legislation can significantly affect the derived demand for 

materials. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 

Table 3. U.S. apparent consumption of raw materials used in the 

transportation sector, 1975–2000

[In metric tons. NA, not available. Source: Kelly and Matos, 2004]

Year Aluminum Copper Iron and 

steel

Lead

Gasoline 

additives

Storage 

batteries

1975 663,000 190,000 NA 189,000 635,000

1980 868,000 240,000 15,000,000 128,000 645,000

1985 1,100,000 280,000 13,000,000 46,000 841,000

1990 1,110,000 260,000 11,400,000 16,000 1,020,000

1995 1,990,000 280,000 13,300,000 NA 1,330,000

2000 2,760,000 310,000 14,600,000 NA 1,490,000

Figure 8. Number of U.S. vehicles and aircraft, 1960–2000 (U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2004b).

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was established in 1970 with the mission to protect human 

health and to safeguard the natural environment—air, water, 

and land. Through a broad range of Federal statutes, EPA gathers health, safety, and exposure data and controls human and 

environmental exposures for numerous chemical substances 

and mixtures. EPA regulates the production and distribution 

of commercial and industrial chemicals in order to ensure that 

chemicals made available for sale and use in the United States 

do not harm human health or the environment.

Air pollution comes from many different sources, such 

as factories, power plants, dry cleaners, cars, buses, trucks, 

and even windblown dust and wildfires. Air pollution can 

threaten the health of animals, crops, human beings, lakes, and 

trees, as well as damage the ozone layer. EPA protects human 

health and the environment through the regulatory process 

and voluntary programs, such as Energy Star and Commuter 

Choice. Under the Clean Air Act (CAA), EPA sets limits on 

how much of a pollutant is allowed in the air. The CAA was 

passed in 1970 with amendments in 1977 and 1990. The CAA 

provides public health protection by improving the quality of 

the air. One example is the use of catalytic converters for cars 

starting with the 1977 model year. Because of the vast number 

of vehicles within the United States, laws relative to emissions 

necessitated the addition of millions of control devices, such 

as catalytic converters which are manufactured of specific 

materials based on performance (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004a).

The impact on platinum-group metals (PGM) resulting 

from use of catalytic converters on U.S. automobiles is shown 

in figure 10. The sharp increase in domestic consumption 

occurred even as prices, shown in constant 1998 dollars per 

metric ton, increased.

Table 4. U.S. passenger-miles of travel by mode, in millions, 

1985–2000

[Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2004c]

Mode 1985 2000

1985–2000 

percentage 

change

2000 percentage 

of total

Air total 290,136 531,329 83.1 11.2

Highway total1 2,889,449 4,184,556 44.8 88.1

Bus2 94,925 160,919 69.5 3.4

Light truck 688,091 1,467,664 113.3 30.9

Motorcycle 11,812 11,516 -2.5 0.2

Passenger car 2,094,621 2,544,457 21.5 53.6

Transit total3 18,420 26,425 43.5 0.6

Rail, Amtrak 4,825 5,498 13.9 0.1

Total4 3,202,830 4,747,808 48.2 100

1

Excludes heavy trucks because their function is to transport goods.

2

Comprises all travel by bus including intercity, transit, and school bus.

3

Excludes bus and includes travel by commuter, heavy, and light rail, ferry 

boat, and others.

4

Excludes passenger-miles of travel by bicycle, walking, and boat because 

national estimates are not available on an annual basis.

Figure 9. Passenger-miles of travel by aircraft and highway, 1960–2000 (U.S. Bureau of Transportation 

Statistics, 2004c).

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Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 9
10 Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 

Growing public awareness and concern for controlling 

water pollution led to enactment of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972. As amended in 1977, 

this law became commonly known as the Clean Water Act, 

which, through EPA, established the basic structure for regulating discharges of pollutants into the waters of the United 

States. The use of mercury is an example of legislation altering 

consumption patterns. In 1970, U.S. apparent consumption of 

mercury was 2,120 t, but by 1997 (most recent year data was 

available), it had decreased to 346 t (Porter and Brooks, 2004). 

Because of mercury’s toxic nature, however, various rules and 

regulations were enacted, especially in the 1970s, to eliminate 

or curtail human exposure to mercury (Reese, 2002, p. 51.1). 

In March 2004, EPA issued the Clean Air Mercury rule to cap 

and reduce mercury emissions for coal-fired power plants, and 

the Clean Air Interstate rule to reduce air pollution that crosses 

interstate boundaries (Brooks, 2006, p. 49.1).

Since the 1980s, EPA and its Federal partners have 

phased out the use of lead in gasoline (table 3) and banned or 

limited lead use in consumer products, including residential 

paints (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004b). Yet, 

apparent consumption of lead has continued to rise. U.S. lead 

consumption increased from 253,000 t in 1900 to 1.74 Mt 

in 2000. Reviewing figure 11, the overall trend in domestic 

lead consumption has shown a general increase except for 

temporary declines in the early 1930s attributed to the Great 

Depression and declines in the 1960s and the 1980s because 

of economic slowdowns. An explanation for the continuing 

increase in domestic consumption, in spite of regulations 

limiting its use, can be credited to increasing demand for leadacid batteries.

Referring back to table 3, apparent consumption of lead 

in batteries in the transportation sector more than doubled 

from 635,000 t in 1975 to 1.49 Mt in 2000. Lead-acid batteries, starting-lighting-ignition and industrial types, continue 

to be the overwhelming dominant use of lead, representing 

about 83 percent of reported lead consumption in 2002 (Smith, 

2004, p. 44.1). Lead-acid batteries have the highest recycling 

rate of any product sold in the United States. This is because 

of the ease of returning a used battery when purchasing a new 

battery, the financial incentive to return the used battery, and 

the value of the lead components of the used battery. Most 

States have enacted legislation to encourage the return of 

used lead-acid batteries (Battery Council International, 2005). 

Secondary lead, derived principally from scrapped lead-acid 

batteries, accounted for 81 percent of refined lead production 

in the United States in 2002 (U.S. Geological Survey, 2004, 

p. 62.7–62.8). Because a large share of the lead consumed in 

the United States is acquired through this recycled (secondary) 

source, the demand for virgin (primary) lead is reduced. The 

influence of recycling on demand is discussed further within 

this report in the section on recycling.

The Energy Policy Conservation Act, enacted into law 

by Congress in 1975, added title V (Improving Automotive 

Efficiency) to the Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act and established the corporate average fuel economy 

(CAFE) standards for passenger cars and light trucks. The act 

was passed in response to the 1973–74 Arab oil embargo with 

a near-term goal to double new car fuel economy by model 

Figure 10. U.S. apparent consumption and price of platinum-group metals in constant 1998 dollars, 1900–2000 (Kelly 

and Hilliard, 2004).

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year 1985. These laws prescribed an average fuel efficiency 

requirement for the total vehicle fleet produced by each auto 

manufacturer and were progressively tightened from 18 miles 

per gallon (mpg) in 1978 to 27.5 mpg in 1985 (National 

Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2004). Manufacturers 

had to balance the production of heavier, larger cars with the 

production of lightweight, smaller cars. Since the CAFE standards were established, one of the methods car manufacturers 

have used to meet them is to design lighter vehicles. During 

the past several decades, two viable alternatives for steel in 

automobiles have been plastic and aluminum. Some examples 

of substitution for steel parts are plastic bumpers, plastic fuel 

tanks, aluminum engine blocks, and aluminum wheels. The 

legislation has helped Americans to reduce, to some extent, 

their dependence on foreign oil.

Aluminum versus Steel

—Adapted from David A. Buckingham, Minerals and 

Materials Specialist, U.S. Geological Survey, written 

commun., August 24, 2005

Cars are the biggest market for steel and a growing one 

for aluminum. During the past 30 to 35 years, the use of 

steel in automobiles has decreased in terms of the average amount by weight used per vehicle and as a percentage of the gross vehicle weight. In the early 1970s, steel 

made up about 81 percent of the automobile’s gross value 

weight. This percentage dropped to about 63 percent 

of the automobile’s total average weight by 2004. The 

decline in steel usage by weight, of about 32 percent since

Figure 11. U.S. apparent consumption of lead, 1900–2000 (DiFrancesco and Smith, 2002).

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Aluminum versus Steel—Continued

1970, was largely due to downsizing of the automobile and 

substitution of steel body parts by aluminum, magnesium, 

and plastics, and aluminum for cast iron in cylinder heads, 

engine blocks, and rear axel and transmission housings. 

Aluminum’s unique combination of properties including 

strength, light weight, crash-energy absorption, corrosion 

resistance, and high thermal and electrical conductivity are 

qualities highly valued by the automotive industry. Aluminum has become the metal of choice for a significant number 

of automobile body mainframe, underbody frame, and body 

panel manufacturers (Aluminum Association, Inc., 2001, p. 

2-5). Concerns about automobile exhaust emissions and fuel 

efficiency created a demand for legislation that introduced 

emission controls (Clean Air Act, enacted in 1970) and 

mandated increased miles per gallon expressed as corporate 

average fuel economy (CAFE) standards (Energy Policy 

Conservation Act, enacted in 1975). As CAFE and emission 

laws became more stringent in the late 1970s through the mid 

1980s, auto manufacturers needed to improve fuel economy. 

This was achieved in part by reducing the weight of the automobile, by substituting aluminum and plastics for steel.

During the past 30 to 35 years the use of aluminum in 

automobiles has increased in terms of the average amount 

by weight per vehicle and as a percentage of average vehicle 

curb weight. In 1970, aluminum averaged about 53 pounds 

per vehicle, and by 2001 had increased to about 195 pounds. 

The average curb weight of an automobile decreased to about 

3,100 pounds in 2001 from 3,600 pounds in the early 1970s 

(National Transportation Library, 2005a, 2005b). 

Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 11
12 Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 

Consumer Choices

Today, only a small fraction of consumption in the United 

States is actually for basic survival (food and shelter); most is 

for pleasure and to express one’s standing in society. Although 

some segments of the population attempt to live the simple life 

by using less, lifestyles continue to shape demand for products 

and the derived demand for materials.

As one example, the surge in technological advancements 

in the electronics industry has provided consumers with a wide 

variety of choices, such as cellular phones, laptop computers, high-definition TVs, and digital cameras. In maintaining 

their competitive position, manufacturers will often modify 

their products by incorporating cost-effective upgrades which 

sometimes use new, little known materials; one such material 

is indium.

For decades, the main use of indium has been in solders. 

Recently, it has become a critical component in the manufacturing of liquid crystal display (LCD) screens and monitors. 

In this use, indium tin oxide (ITO) thin-film coatings are 

applied on glass that is used as flat-panel televisions, laptop 

computer screens, or as liquid crystal displays for watches 

(Indium Advocate News, 2004). Figure 12 shows the remarkable increase in consumption of indium at the end of the 20th 

century. Yet, when reviewing the price curve through 2000, 

there appears to be no reaction to this extraordinary increase in 

demand for indium.

The downward trend in annual average indium prices 

that began in 1996 and continued through midyear 2000, was 

because indium is a byproduct of zinc processing. Increases

in zinc supply tend to increase the supply of indium. Indium’s

supply is affected by only those zinc smelters that have zinc 

concentrate feed that contains sufficient indium and the 

required processing facilities to recover indium, however

(Jorgenson, 2004).

More recently, continued strong sales of flat panel 

displays and other liquid crystal display (LCD) products 

increased consumption of indium tin oxide, mostly in Japan, 

the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan, well 

beyond the available production capacity. The report of 

reduced production from mines that produce byproduct indium 

and the closure of several smelters because of environmental 

problems created the perception that supplies of indium from 

China would decrease, which drove world prices to historic 

highs. The price rose from $97 per kilogram in 2002 to an 

estimated $600 per kilogram in 2004 as shown in table 5. 

Although the short-range outlook for indium demand remains 

Figure 12. U.S. apparent consumption and price of indium in constant 1998 dollars, 1936–2000 (DiFrancesco and 

George, 2004).

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Table 5. U.S. estimated indium consumption and annual average 

indium price, 2000–04

[Source: George, 2005]

Item 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Consumption, estimated, 

metric tons 55 65 85 90 90

Price, annual average, dollars 

per kilogram (99.97% 

indium)

188 120 97 170 600
positive, market supply remains questionable because of its 

heavy dependence on the strength of the zinc market. With 

the increasing capacity of indium tin oxide refineries and 

LCD plants in Japan, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, 

and Taiwan, and with China opening new indium tin oxide 

refineries and LCD plants, the availability of primary indium 

feedstock will be further reduced. Recycling efforts, especially 

in Japan, have done much to offset shortages in supply and to 

alleviate price pressures (George, 2005).

Another example of how consumer choice affects 

demand is illustrated in the development of the automobile. 

Over time, the automobile has changed size significantly; 

first increasing in size, then decreasing its size and in recent 

years again increasing in size. The original increases were 

due to developing complexity of the automobile, especially in 

regards to its carrying capacity, capabilities, and luxury. Larger 

engines satisfied the increased need for power to accommodate these changes, especially the extra weight and the desire 

to obtain higher traveling speeds. During the 1970s, fuel 

economy became an important concern to consumers, leading 

to the regulations mentioned above. To meet the demands of 

these regulations, the automobile ultimately became smaller 

and more practical. This “downsizing” led not only to sweeping changes in automobile design, but also to great changes 

in the materials used to construct the average automobile. By 

the mid-1980s, however, the cycle reversed again as larger 

vehicles became the standard and SUVs dominated automobile sales. More recently, because of an increase in oil prices, 

hybrid automobiles are in higher demand and the evaluation of 

alternate fuels as a source of energy has escalated.

Research and application of fuel cell technology that uses 

hydrogen as a fuel to produce energy has increased dramatically during the past several years. Research is focused on 

power generation for use in commercial electricity generation plants and for electric motors in the automotive sector 

(Wilburn and Bleiwas, 2005, p. 66–67). A potential driver for 

future demand of PGM, especially platinum, is their widespread use in hydrogen fuel-cell technology. To be successful, 

the technology must be affordable and reliable, hydrogen must 

be produced with minimal negative impacts on the environment, and safe and sufficient transport and storage of the gas 

must be achievable. While many scientists agree that hydrogen-fuel-cell use will increase with advances in technology 

and a commensurate decrease in cost (between 10 and 20 percent of the cost of a fuel cell system is attributed to platinum), 

there is disagreement as to the extent of use of the technologies and the impact on future PGM demand, especially in the 

automotive sector (Wilburn and Bleiwas, 2005, p. 70–71).

Recycling

For the purpose of this report, recycling is defined as 

recovering the material contained in a product at the end of 

that product’s useful life, and recovering residual materials from manufacturing. It takes place when the value of the 

recycled material is sufficient enough to make its recovery 

profitable. This can take place through natural market forces 

or when regulations or taxes make recycling financially 

attractive. When materials are recycled, they become valuable 

resources instead of waste. By supplementing the quantity of 

material available to the market, recycling conserves virgin 

Hybrid Vehicles

—Adapted from Hall, 2004

When it comes to transportation, hybridization is not 

new. Hybrid cars and trucks that combine an electric 

motor with a gasoline engine date back to the beginning 

of the 20th century. Hybrid diesel-electric locomotives 

have been in operation for years, and in the 1970s small 

numbers of diesel-electric buses began to appear. On 

a smaller scale, a moped is a hybrid—it combines the 

power of a gasoline engine with the pedal power of 

the rider. So, any vehicle that combines two or more 

sources of power is a hybrid vehicle. Today, however, 

when hybrid and vehicle are used together, that vehicle, 

according to the U.S. Department of Energy, is a hybrid 

electric vehicle (HEV). These vehicles combine an 

internal combustion engine and a battery with an electric 

motor.

Hybrid vehicles offer benefits that their conventional 

counterparts do not have, such as increased fuel economy and fewer harmful emissions. Today’s gasolineelectric hybrid systems are very complex, high-tech 

Hybrid Vehicles—Continued

wonders in design and operation. For example, there are 

two different types of HEV powertrains or configurations. 

One is called a parallel configuration, the other a series 

configuration. But the auto industry apparently believes 

that using these terms would confuse consumers, so instead 

a parallel HEV is being called a “full hybrid” and a series 

HEV is a “mild hybrid.” In simple terms, a parallel system 

can be powered by the gas engine only, the electric motor 

only, or both at the same time. A series-type hybrid is 

where the electric motor assists the gasoline engine when 

needed, such as during acceleration or times of heavy load, 

but doesn’t power the car on its own.

There are additional types of hybrid systems and experimental and prototype hybrid vehicles, but these have yet 

to be proven, practically and economically. It appears 

that hybrids are here to stay until the hydrogen economy 

and its fuel-cell vehicles become available commercially. 

Increased use of hybrid vehicles could alter the current mix 

of materials used by the automotive sector.

Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 13
14 Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 

material and makes more material available to the market 

(Wagner and others, 2003, p. 92). Recycling also reduces the 

demand for virgin material.

As U.S. mineral consumption rose during the 20th 

century, domestic secondary production (recycling of postconsumer scrap) of mineral-based materials became an 

increasingly important national supply source. Recycling is 

a significant factor in the supply of many of the metals used 

in our society, and provides environmental benefits in terms 

of energy savings (relative to the extraction and processing of 

virgin ore), reduced emissions associated with the energy savings, and reduced volumes of waste (U.S. Geological Survey, 

2004, p. 62.1).

The automobile industry supplies steel and lead to the 

recycling stream. As measured by recycled metal as a percentage of apparent metal supply in 2002, lead was the most 

recycled at 71 percent, followed by iron and steel at 58 percent. Lead recycling has remained the highest percent recycled 

commodity primarily because of local and federal legislation 

making recycling mandatory for automobile batteries.

The worldwide demand for raw and recycled materials has increased as a result of international industrialization, especially in China and in India. China is experiencing 

unprecedented growth as it builds its national infrastructure 

in preparing to host the 2008 Olympics. Some economists 

have compared China’s economy to the rapid industrialization and urbanization that the United States experienced in 

the 19th century, but with more middle-class buying power 

for consumer products. India’s infrastructure is already better 

established than China’s, but the Indian middle class is growing quickly, which in turn is increasing consumer demand 

for consumer products (Miller, 2004, p. 10). Demand for 

recycled materials by manufacturers as an alternate source of 

production materials is a function of availability and price. 

For commodities that are recycled, rising prices tend to bring 

additional scrap to the marketplace.

Summary

One of the significant environmental challenges potentially facing us in the future is the anticipated growth of 

demand for resources. The building and construction industry 

continues to be subjected to a variety of demand drivers. From 

purely cost to functional requirements and from rapid changes 

in consumer preference to intermaterial competition, designers 

and contractors must be familiar with alternative materials as 

well as established materials and their wide range of performance. As the cost of materials has risen, such basic construction materials as cement, crushed stone, sand and gravel, and 

steel have nevertheless remained popular. Suppliers of these 

materials continue to develop new applications, such as the use 

of steel in bridge pilings and framing studs in homes.

Any modifications, regulations, or consumer requirements connected with automobiles can cause major shifts in 

demand for various materials. Although aluminum, iron and 

steel, and lead compose the largest portion of materials used in 

automobiles, demand for other materials is growing based on 

alternate fuels, yet-to-be-discovered technological modifications, or new environmental regulations.

Likewise, the U.S. Government has supported environmental accountability by legislating regulations to insure clean 

air and water and the elimination of various toxic materials from the environment. Several examples of changes in 

material demand as a result of legislation include: the rise in 

consumption of PGM, which are incorporated in automobile 

catalytic converters; the reduction of mercury in many applications; and the removal of lead from paint and gasoline.

Consumer choices have also driven demand, sometimes 

in unpredictable directions. The “downsizing” of automobiles 

to satisfy CAFE laws led not only to sweeping modifications 

in automobile design, but also to changes in the materials 

being used to construct the average automobile. In the last several years, however, consumers decided ‘bigger was better’ as 

SUVs, trucks and vans dominated automobile sales. Currently, 

because of rising gasoline prices, the American public is pursuing hybrid automobiles. Another industry that has been part 

of soaring consumer demand is the electronics sector, where 

strong demand has affected obscure materials, such as indium.

Recycling cannot meet all of society’s demands, even if 

all metals could be recycled indefinitely. Recycling however 

helps to reduce the demand for virgin materials. If market 

forces are not sufficient to stimulate recycling, then government regulations, such as taxes, often do. By supplementing 

the quantity of a commodity available to the market, recycling 

conserves virgin material and prevents the associated environmental impacts associated with extraction.

The world of materials has experienced numerous shifts 

as influenced by demanding consumer markets and changing 

consumer preferences. These forces have created new products 

and modified existing ones while increasing or maintaining 

performance levels.

References Cited

Aluminum Association, Inc., The, 2001, Aluminum—The 

corrosion resistant automotive material: Washington, D.C., 

The Aluminum Association, Inc., 24 p. (Available on the 

Web at http://www.autoaluminum.org/downloads/

corpub.pdf.)

Battery Council International, 2005, Summary of U.S. State 

lead-acid battery laws: Web site at 

http://www.batterycouncil.org/states.html.

Brooks, W.E., 2006, Mercury, in Metals and minerals: U.S. 

Geological Survey Minerals Yearbook 2004, v. I, p. 49.1–

49.8. (Available on the Web at http://minerals.usgs.gov/

minerals/pubs/commodity/mercury/mercumyb04.pdf.)
Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2002, GDP and other major 

NIPA series, 1929–2001: Washington, D.C., Bureau of Economic Analysis, 25 p. (Available on the Web at 

http://www.bea.gov/bea/ARTICLES/2002/08August/

0802GDP_&Other_Major_NIPAs.pdf.)

DiFrancesco, C.A., and George, M.W., 2004, Indium statistics, 

in Kelly, T.D., and Matos, G.R., eds., Historical statistics for 

mineral and material commodities in the United States (ver. 

1.0): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 01–006, 

5 p. (Available on the Web at http://minerals.usgs.gov/

ds/2005/140/indium.pdf.)

DiFrancesco, C.A., and Smith, G.R., 2002, Lead statistics, in

Kelly, T.D., and Matos, G.R., eds., Historical statistics for 

mineral and material commodities in the United States (ver. 

1.0): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 01–006, 5 p. 

(Available on the Web at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/

pubs/of01-006/lead.pdf.)

DiFrancesco, C.A., and Tepordei, V.V., 2004, Stone (crushed) 

statistics, in Kelly, T.D., and Matos, G.R., eds., Historical statistics for mineral and material commodities in the 

United States (ver. 1.0): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File 

Report 01–006, 3 p. (Available on the Web at 

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George, M.W., 2005, Indium: U.S. Geological Survey Mineral 

Commodity Summaries 2005, p. 80–81. (Available on the 

Web at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/

indium/indiumcs05.pdf.)

Hall, L.E., 2004, What is a hybrid?: Web site at 

http://autos.msn.com/advice/article.aspx?contentid=

4022561.

Indium Advocate News, 2004, General outlook for 2004, 

no. 17, July-September: Web site at 

http://www.basicsmines.com/indium.

Johnson Matthey plc, 2006, Palladium supply and demand: 

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1132069464.html.

Johnston, L.D., and Williamson, S.H., 2003, What was the 

GDP then: Web site at http://www.eh.net/hmit/gdp.

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Geological Survey Minerals Yearbook 2002, v. I, p. 37.1–

37.6. (Available on the Web at http://minerals.usgs.gov/

minerals/pubs/commodity/indium/indimyb02.pdf.)

Kelly, T.D., and Fenton, M.D., 2004, Iron and steel statistics, 

in Kelly, T.D., and Matos, G.R., eds., Historical statistics for 

mineral and material commodities in the United States (ver. 

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ds/2005/140/ironandsteel.pdf.)

Kelly, T.D., and Hilliard, H.E., 2004, Platinum-group statistics, 

in Kelly, T.D., and Matos, G.R., eds., Historical statistics for 

mineral and material commodities in the United States (ver. 

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(Available on the Web at http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/

140/platinum.pdf.)

Kelly, T.D., and Matos, G.R., eds., 2004, Historical statistics for mineral and material commodities in the United 

States (ver. 1.0), U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 

01–006: Web at http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/

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Miller, K.L., 2004, When will the hot steel markets cool off?: 

Resource Recycling, v. 23, no. 12, December, 48 p.

Miller, R.L., 1998, Economics today—The micro view: Reading, MA, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc., 791 p.

Motavalli, Jim, 2004, Fuel fossils—Fuel economy regulations: Web site at http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/

mi_m1594/is_1_11/ai_58916326.

National Association of Home Builders, 2003, A century of 

progress—America’s housing 1900–2000: Washington, 

D.C., National Association of Home Builders, p. 8. (Available on the Web at http://www.nahb.org/assets/docs/files/

v5_513200312545PM.pdf.)

National Association of Home Builders, 2004, Housing facts, 

figures and trends 2004: Washington, D.C., National Association of Home Builders, 49 p. (Available on the Web at 

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contentTypeID=7&contentID=20.)

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2004, CAFE 

overview—Frequently asked questions: Web site at 

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National Transportation Library, 2005a, New passenger car 

fleet average characteristics: Web site at http://www.nhtsa.gov/

cars/rules/CAFE/NewPassengerCarfleet.htm.

National Transportation Library, 2005b, Historical passenger 

car fleet average characteristics: Web site at 

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HistoricalCarfleet.htm.

Porter, K.E., and Bolen, W.P., 2004, Sand and gravel (construction) statistics, in Kelly, T.D., and Matos, G.R., eds., 

Historical statistics for mineral and material commodities in 

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sandgravelconstruction.pdf.)

References Cited 15
16 Drivers of U.S. Mineral Demand 

Porter, K.E., and Brooks, W.E., 2004, Mercury statistics, in

Kelly, T.D., and Matos, G.R., eds., Historical statistics for 

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