14

- i 

### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14-1 14.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 14-1 14.3 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14-2 14.4 IMPACT OF STA NDARDS ON ELECTRICITY PRICES AND ASSOCIATED BENEFITS FOR CONSUME RS ................................................................................. 14-13 14.4.1 Impact on Electricity Prices ......................................................................................... 14-13 14.4.2 Impact of Changes in Electricity Price on Electricity Users ........................................ 14-15 14.4.3 Discussion of Savings in Electricity Expenditures ...................................................... 14-16

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 AEO 2012 Reference Case Forecast .................................................................. 14-3 Table 14.3.2 Liquid Immer sed Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ...................... 14-4 Table 14.3.3 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ...................... 14-4 Table 14.3.4 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ...................... 14-5 Table 14.3.5 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ...................... 14-5 Table 14.3.6 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast ...................... 14-6 Table 14.3.7 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast ...................... 14-6 Table 14.3.8 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast ...................... 14-7 Table 14.3.9 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ............ 14-7 Ta ble 14.3.10 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ............ 14-8 Table 14.3.11 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ............ 14-8 Table 14.3.12 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ............ 14-9 Table 14.3.13 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast ............ 14-9 Table 14.3.14 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast .......... 14-10 Table 14.3.15 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast .... 14-10 Table 14.3.16 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast .... 14-11 Table 14.3.17 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast .... 14-11 Table 14.3.18 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast .... 14-12 Table 14.3.19 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast .... 14-12 Table 14.3.20 Reduction in Electric Generating Capacity in 2045 Under Transformer Trial Standard Levels ....................................................................................... 14-13 Table 14.4.1 Cumulative NPV of the Economy- Wide Savings in Electricity Expenditures Due to the Projected Decline in Electricity Prices Resulting from the Proposed Standards for Transformers* ............................................. 14-1614

- ii 

### LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 4.4.1 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended Transformer Energy Conservation Standard ........................................................................ 14-14 Figure 14.4.2 Effect of Proposed Transformer Energy Conservation Standard on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users) ...................................................... 14-1514 -1 

### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALY SIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of its amended standard levels on the electric utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). a 

### NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectored, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. E ach year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce an energy forecast for the United States, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) . The AEO for 2012 (AEO2012) forecasts energ y supply and demand through 2040. 1 

### DOE used a variant of this model, referred to as NEMS-BT, b 

### to account for the impacts of transformer energy conservation standards. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the AEO2012 Reference Case and for cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2012 . The AEO 2012 reference case corresponds to medium economic growth.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed capacity and generation that result for each trial standard level (TSL) by plant type, as well as changes in res ident ial and

c ommercial electricity consumption.

NEMS

- BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the analysis of energy conservation standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy supply and demand sectors, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS- BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of energy conservation standards than considering only average effects.



### 14.2 METHODOLOGY

NEMS provides reference case load shapes f or several end uses. The model uses predicted growth in demand for each end use to build up a projection of the total electric system load growth for each region, which it uses in turn to predict the necessary additions to capacity. DOE uses NEMS

- BT to acc ount for the implementation of energy conservation standards by decrementing the appropriate reference case load shape. For transformers all end uses were

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003 , DOE/EIA

- 0581(2003), March, 2003.

b DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions , DOE refers to it by the name NEMS

BT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS

- BT was previously called NEMS

- BRS.14 -2 

### evenly decremented to accurately represent the effect of transformer efficiency on the overall household consumption. These decrements are also divided amongst the nine U.S. Census divisions based upon the share of energy end use consumption in each division, as given in NEMS

.
DOE used the site energy savings developed in the national impact analys is (chapter 10) for each TSL as input to NEMS -BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for NEMS -BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher energy use reduction levels in NEMS-BT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2040, other parts of the energy conservation standards analysis extend through the year 204 5. It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2040 . While it might seem reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could b e contradictory. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore , all extrapolations beyond 2040 are simple replications of year 2040 results. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS -BT results.



### 14.3 RESULTS

This utility impact analysis reports NE MS -BT forecasts for residential and commercial sector electricity consumption, total electricity generation by fuel type, and installed electricity generation capacity by fuel type. Results are pres ented in five

- year increments through 2040. Beyond 2040, an extrapol ation through 2045 for each TSL represents a simple replication of the 2040 results.

The results from the AEO2012 Refe rence Case are shown in Table 14 .3.1.

The results for the TSLs for all three types of transformers are presented in Tables 1 4.3.2 through 14.3.19. There are seven TSLs for liqu id immersed transformers, six TSLs for low -v oltage dry type transformers, and five TSLs for medium-voltage dry type transformers. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 14.2, for total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity.

The considered transformer TSLs reduce electricity consumption compared to the AEO2012 Reference Case. The electricity savings predicted by t he NIA Model for all transformer products at any TSL level range from 0.33 to 0.84 percen t of total residential and commercial electric ity consumption in the year 2040.14 -3 

### Table 14.3.1 AEO 2012 Reference Case Forecast



## NEMS-BT Results: AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 1,392 1,454 1,533 1,626 1,718 1,831

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 1
Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 1,346 1,431 1,513 1,607 1,699 1,799

Total U.S. Electric Generation 3
Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,897 1,924 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,112 1,138 1,267 1,394 1,473 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 964 Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 760 842 Total (TWh) 4 4,131 4,312 4,533 4,754 4,968 5,233

Installed Generating Capacity 5
Coal (GW) 286 281 282 284 285 288
Other Fossil (GW) 6 467 475 495 525 568 598 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Renewables (GW) 163 168 176 184 201 225 Total (GW) 7 1,019 1,036 1,068 1,107 1,165 1,232

1 Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2012: Energy Consumption, Residential

2 Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2012: Electricity Sales by Sector

3 Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2012: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

4 Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

5 Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2012: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

6 Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

7 Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells14 -4 

### Table 14.3.2 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

Table 14.3.3 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,044 3,230 3,413 3,626 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.803 -1.593 -2.366 -3.107 -3.789 -3.917 -4.394

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,785 1,840 1,896 1,923 Coal (TWh) 0.010 -0.494 -0.803 -0.858 -1.009 -1.073 -1.073 -1.073 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,265 1,392 1,471 Gas (TWh) 0.020 -0.187 -0.676 -1.192 -1.543 -1.453 -1.453 -1.453 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.003 -0.005 -0.007 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.074 -0.073 -0.081 -0.196 -0.860 -0.860 -0.860 Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.116 -0.151 -0.166 -0.274 -0.373 -0.548 -0.548 -0.548 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,311 4,531 4,751 4,964 5,229 Total (TWh) -0.086 -0.910 -1.723 -2.412 -3.128 -3.942 -3.942 -3.942

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.155 -0.146 -0.145 -0.144 -0.148 -0.159 -0.159 -0.159 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.072 -0.157 -0.275 -0.403 -0.599 -0.657 -0.657 -0.657 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.010 -0.010 -0.011 -0.026 -0.110 -0.110 -0.110 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.039 -0.042 -0.052 -0.057 -0.113 -0.185 -0.185 -0.185 Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,107 1,164 1,231 Total (GW) -0.266 -0.355 -0.482 -0.615 -0.886 -1.111 -1.111 -1.111 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,883 3,043 3,228 3,411 3,623 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -1.409 -2.789 -4.133 -5.416 -6.590 -6.809 -7.625

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,785 1,840 1,895 1,922 Coal (TWh) 0.018 -0.868 -1.407 -1.500 -1.759 -1.867 -1.867 -1.867 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,265 1,391 1,470 Gas (TWh) 0.034 -0.328 -1.184 -2.082 -2.689 -2.527 -2.527 -2.527 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.006 -0.009 -0.012 -0.013 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 962 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.130 -0.128 -0.142 -0.342 -1.495 -1.495 -1.495 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.204 -0.266 -0.290 -0.479 -0.651 -0.952 -0.952 -0.952 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,530 4,749 4,962 5,226 Total (TWh) -0.152 -1.597 -3.017 -4.215 -5.453 -6.856 -6.856 -6.856

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.273 -0.256 -0.254 -0.251 -0.259 -0.276 -0.276 -0.276 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.126 -0.276 -0.482 -0.703 -1.043 -1.143 -1.143 -1.143 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.017 -0.017 -0.019 -0.046 -0.191 -0.191 -0.191 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.069 -0.073 -0.091 -0.099 -0.197 -0.322 -0.322 -0.322 Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,106 1,164 1,230 Total (GW) -0.468 -0.623 -0.844 -1.074 -1.544 -1.932 -1.932 -1.932 Extrapolation14 -5 

### Table 14.3.4 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

Table 14.3.5 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,883 3,043 3,228 3,410 3,623 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -1.509 -2.997 -4.455 -5.857 -7.152 -7.395 -8.303

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,785 1,840 1,895 1,922 Coal (TWh) 0.019 -0.929 -1.511 -1.616 -1.902 -2.026 -2.026 -2.026 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,264 1,391 1,470 Gas (TWh) 0.037 -0.352 -1.272 -2.244 -2.908 -2.743 -2.743 -2.743 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.006 -0.010 -0.013 -0.014 -0.016 -0.016 -0.016 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 962 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.139 -0.137 -0.153 -0.370 -1.622 -1.622 -1.622 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.219 -0.285 -0.311 -0.517 -0.704 -1.034 -1.034 -1.034 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,530 4,749 4,962 5,225 Total (TWh) -0.162 -1.711 -3.242 -4.543 -5.898 -7.440 -7.440 -7.440

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.292 -0.275 -0.273 -0.271 -0.280 -0.300 -0.300 -0.300 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.135 -0.295 -0.518 -0.758 -1.128 -1.240 -1.240 -1.240 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.019 -0.018 -0.021 -0.049 -0.207 -0.207 -0.207 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.073 -0.079 -0.098 -0.107 -0.213 -0.349 -0.349 -0.349 Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,106 1,163 1,230 Total (GW) -0.500 -0.667 -0.907 -1.157 -1.670 -2.096 -2.096 -2.096 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,882 3,041 3,225 3,406 3,617 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.491 -4.992 -7.494 -9.953 -12.279 -12.722 -14.396

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,670 1,784 1,838 1,894 1,921 Coal (TWh) 0.031 -1.534 -2.517 -2.719 -3.232 -3.478 -3.478 -3.478 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,263 1,389 1,468 Gas (TWh) 0.060 -0.580 -2.118 -3.775 -4.943 -4.709 -4.709 -4.709 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.010 -0.017 -0.021 -0.023 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 961 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.230 -0.229 -0.258 -0.629 -2.786 -2.786 -2.786 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.358 -0.470 -0.519 -0.869 -1.196 -1.774 -1.774 -1.774 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,309 4,527 4,746 4,958 5,220 Total (TWh) -0.266 -2.824 -5.400 -7.642 -10.023 -12.774 -12.774 -12.774

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.478 -0.453 -0.454 -0.456 -0.475 -0.515 -0.515 -0.515 Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.222 -0.487 -0.863 -1.275 -1.918 -2.129 -2.129 -2.129 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.031 -0.031 -0.035 -0.084 -0.356 -0.356 -0.356 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.120 -0.130 -0.163 -0.180 -0.361 -0.599 -0.599 -0.599 Total (GW) 1,018 1,035 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,229 Total (GW) -0.820 -1.101 -1.511 -1.947 -2.838 -3.599 -3.599 -3.599 Extrapolation14 -6 

### Table 14.3.6 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

Table 14.3.7 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,882 3,041 3,225 3,406 3,617 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.476 -4.964 -7.454 -9.903 -12.222 -12.663 -14.334

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,670 1,784 1,838 1,894 1,921 Coal (TWh) 0.030 -1.524 -2.503 -2.704 -3.216 -3.462 -3.462 -3.462 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,263 1,389 1,468 Gas (TWh) 0.060 -0.577 -2.106 -3.755 -4.918 -4.687 -4.687 -4.687 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.010 -0.017 -0.021 -0.023 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 961 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.229 -0.228 -0.256 -0.626 -2.773 -2.773 -2.773 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.356 -0.467 -0.516 -0.864 -1.190 -1.766 -1.766 -1.766 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,309 4,527 4,746 4,958 5,220 Total (TWh) -0.264 -2.807 -5.369 -7.601 -9.972 -12.715 -12.715 -12.715

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.475 -0.451 -0.451 -0.453 -0.473 -0.512 -0.512 -0.512 Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.220 -0.484 -0.858 -1.269 -1.908 -2.119 -2.119 -2.119 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.031 -0.031 -0.035 -0.083 -0.354 -0.354 -0.354 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.120 -0.129 -0.162 -0.179 -0.359 -0.597 -0.597 -0.597 Total (GW) 1,018 1,035 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,229 Total (GW) -0.814 -1.095 -1.502 -1.936 -2.824 -3.582 -3.582 -3.582 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,882 3,040 3,224 3,405 3,616 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.771 -5.600 -8.479 -11.361 -14.139 -14.674 -16.713

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,670 1,783 1,838 1,893 1,920 Coal (TWh) 0.034 -1.706 -2.824 -3.076 -3.689 -4.005 -4.005 -4.005 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,262 1,388 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.066 -0.645 -2.376 -4.272 -5.641 -5.422 -5.422 -5.422 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.012 -0.019 -0.024 -0.026 -0.031 -0.031 -0.031 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 960 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.256 -0.257 -0.292 -0.718 -3.208 -3.208 -3.208 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.396 -0.523 -0.582 -0.983 -1.365 -2.043 -2.043 -2.043 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,309 4,527 4,745 4,956 5,218 Total (TWh) -0.293 -3.141 -6.057 -8.647 -11.440 -14.709 -14.709 -14.709

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.528 -0.504 -0.509 -0.516 -0.543 -0.593 -0.593 -0.593 Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.245 -0.542 -0.968 -1.443 -2.189 -2.451 -2.451 -2.451 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.034 -0.034 -0.040 -0.096 -0.410 -0.410 -0.410 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.133 -0.145 -0.183 -0.204 -0.412 -0.690 -0.690 -0.690 Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,228 Total (GW) -0.906 -1.225 -1.695 -2.203 -3.239 -4.144 -4.144 -4.144 Extrapolation14 -7 

### Table 14.3.8 Liquid Immersed Transformers Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast

Table 14.3.9 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,881 3,037 3,220 3,399 3,608 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -3.894 -8.009 -12.343 -16.831 -21.321 -22.202 -25.611

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,669 1,782 1,837 1,891 1,918 Coal (TWh) 0.047 -2.398 -4.038 -4.478 -5.465 -6.040 -6.040 -6.040 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,134 1,260 1,386 1,465 Gas (TWh) 0.092 -0.907 -3.398 -6.218 -8.358 -8.177 -8.177 -8.177 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.003 -0.016 -0.027 -0.035 -0.039 -0.046 -0.046 -0.046 Nuclear (TWh) 830 886 917 914 886 959 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.359 -0.367 -0.424 -1.064 -4.837 -4.837 -4.837 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 839 Renewables (TWh) -0.549 -0.734 -0.832 -1.431 -2.022 -3.081 -3.081 -3.081 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,307 4,524 4,741 4,951 5,211 Total (TWh) -0.407 -4.415 -8.663 -12.587 -16.948 -22.181 -22.181 -22.181

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 284 287 Coal (GW) -0.732 -0.709 -0.728 -0.751 -0.804 -0.894 -0.894 -0.894 Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 523 565 595 Other Fossil (GW) -0.339 -0.761 -1.385 -2.101 -3.243 -3.697 -3.697 -3.697 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.048 -0.049 -0.058 -0.142 -0.618 -0.618 -0.618 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 224 Renewables (GW) -0.184 -0.203 -0.261 -0.297 -0.611 -1.041 -1.041 -1.041 Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,065 1,104 1,160 1,226 Total (GW) -1.255 -1.722 -2.424 -3.206 -4.799 -6.249 -6.249 -6.249 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,883 3,042 3,228 3,410 3,622 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -1.532 -3.092 -4.664 -6.222 -7.702 -7.985 -9.054

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,785 1,839 1,895 1,922 Coal (TWh) 0.019 -0.944 -1.559 -1.692 -2.020 -2.182 -2.182 -2.182 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,264 1,391 1,470 Gas (TWh) 0.037 -0.357 -1.312 -2.350 -3.090 -2.954 -2.954 -2.954 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.006 -0.010 -0.013 -0.015 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 962 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.141 -0.142 -0.160 -0.393 -1.747 -1.747 -1.747 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.219 -0.289 -0.321 -0.541 -0.748 -1.113 -1.113 -1.113 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,529 4,749 4,961 5,225 Total (TWh) -0.162 -1.737 -3.345 -4.756 -6.266 -8.013 -8.013 -8.013

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.292 -0.279 -0.281 -0.284 -0.297 -0.323 -0.323 -0.323 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 524 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.135 -0.300 -0.535 -0.794 -1.199 -1.335 -1.335 -1.335 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.019 -0.019 -0.022 -0.052 -0.223 -0.223 -0.223 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.073 -0.080 -0.101 -0.112 -0.226 -0.376 -0.376 -0.376 Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,106 1,163 1,230 Total (GW) -0.500 -0.677 -0.936 -1.212 -1.774 -2.257 -2.257 -2.257 Extrapolation14 -8 

### Table 14.3.10 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

Table 14.3.11 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,883 3,042 3,227 3,410 3,621 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -1.637 -3.304 -4.983 -6.647 -8.228 -8.530 -9.672

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,670 1,785 1,839 1,895 1,922 Coal (TWh) 0.020 -1.008 -1.666 -1.808 -2.158 -2.331 -2.331 -2.331 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,264 1,391 1,470 Gas (TWh) 0.039 -0.381 -1.402 -2.510 -3.301 -3.155 -3.155 -3.155 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.007 -0.011 -0.014 -0.015 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 962 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.151 -0.152 -0.171 -0.420 -1.867 -1.867 -1.867 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.234 -0.309 -0.343 -0.578 -0.799 -1.189 -1.189 -1.189 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,529 4,748 4,961 5,224 Total (TWh) -0.173 -1.856 -3.573 -5.081 -6.693 -8.560 -8.560 -8.560

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.312 -0.298 -0.300 -0.303 -0.317 -0.345 -0.345 -0.345 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 524 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.144 -0.320 -0.571 -0.848 -1.281 -1.427 -1.427 -1.427 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.020 -0.020 -0.023 -0.056 -0.239 -0.239 -0.239 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.078 -0.085 -0.108 -0.120 -0.241 -0.402 -0.402 -0.402 Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,106 1,163 1,230 Total (GW) -0.534 -0.724 -1.000 -1.294 -1.895 -2.412 -2.412 -2.412 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,882 3,041 3,226 3,408 3,619 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.056 -4.150 -6.259 -8.350 -10.336 -10.715 -12.150

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,670 1,784 1,839 1,894 1,921 Coal (TWh) 0.025 -1.266 -2.093 -2.271 -2.711 -2.928 -2.928 -2.928 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,136 1,263 1,390 1,469 Gas (TWh) 0.049 -0.479 -1.761 -3.153 -4.146 -3.964 -3.964 -3.964 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.001 -0.009 -0.014 -0.018 -0.019 -0.022 -0.022 -0.022 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 961 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.190 -0.190 -0.215 -0.528 -2.345 -2.345 -2.345 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 759 841 Renewables (TWh) -0.293 -0.388 -0.431 -0.726 -1.003 -1.494 -1.494 -1.494 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,310 4,528 4,747 4,959 5,222 Total (TWh) -0.218 -2.331 -4.489 -6.383 -8.408 -10.753 -10.753 -10.753

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.391 -0.374 -0.377 -0.381 -0.399 -0.433 -0.433 -0.433 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 494 524 567 597 Other Fossil (GW) -0.181 -0.402 -0.717 -1.065 -1.609 -1.792 -1.792 -1.792 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.025 -0.026 -0.029 -0.070 -0.300 -0.300 -0.300 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.099 -0.107 -0.135 -0.151 -0.303 -0.504 -0.504 -0.504 Total (GW) 1,018 1,035 1,066 1,106 1,163 1,229 Total (GW) -0.671 -0.909 -1.256 -1.626 -2.381 -3.029 -3.029 -3.029 Extrapolation14 -9 

### Table 14.3.12 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

Table 14.3.13 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,881 3,040 3,223 3,404 3,615 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -2.966 -5.986 -9.029 -12.045 -14.910 -15.457 -17.527

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,670 1,783 1,838 1,893 1,920 Coal (TWh) 0.036 -1.827 -3.019 -3.276 -3.911 -4.224 -4.224 -4.224 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,135 1,262 1,388 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.071 -0.691 -2.540 -4.549 -5.981 -5.718 -5.718 -5.718 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.012 -0.020 -0.026 -0.028 -0.032 -0.032 -0.032 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 960 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.274 -0.275 -0.310 -0.761 -3.382 -3.382 -3.382 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.423 -0.560 -0.622 -1.047 -1.447 -2.155 -2.155 -2.155 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,308 4,526 4,744 4,955 5,217 Total (TWh) -0.314 -3.363 -6.475 -9.207 -12.129 -15.511 -15.511 -15.511

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 287 Coal (GW) -0.565 -0.540 -0.545 -0.549 -0.575 -0.625 -0.625 -0.625 Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.262 -0.580 -1.035 -1.537 -2.321 -2.585 -2.585 -2.585 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.037 -0.037 -0.042 -0.101 -0.432 -0.432 -0.432 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.142 -0.155 -0.195 -0.217 -0.437 -0.728 -0.728 -0.728 Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,228 Total (GW) -0.969 -1.311 -1.812 -2.346 -3.434 -4.370 -4.370 -4.370 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,881 3,039 3,223 3,404 3,615 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -3.014 -6.083 -9.175 -12.239 -15.151 -15.706 -17.810

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,670 1,783 1,838 1,893 1,920 Coal (TWh) 0.037 -1.856 -3.067 -3.329 -3.974 -4.292 -4.292 -4.292 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,135 1,262 1,388 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.072 -0.702 -2.581 -4.622 -6.078 -5.810 -5.810 -5.810 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.013 -0.020 -0.026 -0.029 -0.033 -0.033 -0.033 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 960 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.278 -0.279 -0.315 -0.773 -3.437 -3.437 -3.437 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.430 -0.569 -0.632 -1.064 -1.471 -2.189 -2.189 -2.189 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,308 4,526 4,744 4,955 5,217 Total (TWh) -0.319 -3.417 -6.580 -9.356 -12.324 -15.762 -15.762 -15.762

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 287 Coal (GW) -0.574 -0.549 -0.553 -0.558 -0.584 -0.635 -0.635 -0.635 Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.266 -0.589 -1.052 -1.561 -2.358 -2.627 -2.627 -2.627 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.037 -0.037 -0.043 -0.103 -0.439 -0.439 -0.439 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.144 -0.157 -0.199 -0.221 -0.444 -0.740 -0.740 -0.740 Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,066 1,105 1,162 1,228 Total (GW) -0.984 -1.333 -1.841 -2.383 -3.490 -4.441 -4.441 -4.441 Extrapolation14

- 10 

### Table 14.3.14 Low Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

Table 14.3.15 Medium Voltage Dry Ty pe Transformers Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,881 3,039 3,223 3,403 3,613 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -3.234 -6.526 -9.843 -13.130 -16.254 -16.850 -19.106

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,582 1,670 1,783 1,838 1,893 1,919 Coal (TWh) 0.040 -1.991 -3.291 -3.571 -4.263 -4.604 -4.604 -4.604 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,135 1,262 1,387 1,467 Gas (TWh) 0.078 -0.753 -2.769 -4.958 -6.520 -6.233 -6.233 -6.233 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.002 -0.013 -0.022 -0.028 -0.031 -0.035 -0.035 -0.035 Nuclear (TWh) 830 886 917 914 886 960 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.299 -0.299 -0.338 -0.830 -3.687 -3.687 -3.687 Renewables (TWh) 562 613 662 701 758 840 Renewables (TWh) -0.461 -0.610 -0.678 -1.141 -1.578 -2.349 -2.349 -2.349 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,308 4,526 4,743 4,954 5,216 Total (TWh) -0.342 -3.666 -7.059 -10.037 -13.222 -16.909 -16.909 -16.909

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 285 281 282 283 285 287 Coal (GW) -0.615 -0.589 -0.594 -0.599 -0.627 -0.681 -0.681 -0.681 Other Fossil (GW) 466 475 494 524 566 596 Other Fossil (GW) -0.285 -0.632 -1.128 -1.675 -2.530 -2.818 -2.818 -2.818 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 120 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.040 -0.040 -0.046 -0.110 -0.471 -0.471 -0.471 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 200 225 Renewables (GW) -0.155 -0.169 -0.213 -0.237 -0.477 -0.793 -0.793 -0.793 Total (GW) 1,018 1,034 1,066 1,105 1,161 1,228 Total (GW) -1.056 -1.430 -1.975 -2.557 -3.744 -4.764 -4.764 -4.764 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,045 3,232 3,416 3,629 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.098 -0.198 -0.299 -0.399 -0.493 -0.511 -0.580

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,897 1,924 Coal (TWh) 0.001 -0.060 -0.100 -0.108 -0.129 -0.140 -0.140 -0.140 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,138 1,266 1,394 1,473 Gas (TWh) 0.002 -0.023 -0.084 -0.151 -0.198 -0.189 -0.189 -0.189 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.009 -0.009 -0.010 -0.025 -0.112 -0.112 -0.112 Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 760 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.014 -0.019 -0.021 -0.035 -0.048 -0.071 -0.071 -0.071 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,312 4,533 4,753 4,967 5,232 Total (TWh) -0.010 -0.111 -0.214 -0.305 -0.401 -0.513 -0.513 -0.513

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.019 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 -0.019 -0.021 -0.021 -0.021 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.009 -0.019 -0.034 -0.051 -0.077 -0.086 -0.086 -0.086 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.003 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014 Renewables (GW) 163 168 176 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.005 -0.005 -0.006 -0.007 -0.014 -0.024 -0.024 -0.024 Total (GW) 1,019 1,036 1,068 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.032 -0.043 -0.060 -0.078 -0.114 -0.145 -0.145 -0.145 Extrapolation14

- 11 

### Table 14.3.16 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

Table 14.3.17 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,045 3,232 3,416 3,629 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.185 -0.372 -0.562 -0.749 -0.927 -0.961 -1.090

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,897 1,924 Coal (TWh) 0.002 -0.114 -0.188 -0.204 -0.243 -0.263 -0.263 -0.263 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,138 1,266 1,394 1,472 Gas (TWh) 0.004 -0.043 -0.158 -0.283 -0.372 -0.356 -0.356 -0.356 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.017 -0.017 -0.019 -0.047 -0.210 -0.210 -0.210 Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.026 -0.035 -0.039 -0.065 -0.090 -0.134 -0.134 -0.134 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,312 4,532 4,753 4,967 5,232 Total (TWh) -0.020 -0.209 -0.403 -0.573 -0.754 -0.965 -0.965 -0.965

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.035 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -0.036 -0.039 -0.039 -0.039 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.016 -0.036 -0.064 -0.096 -0.144 -0.161 -0.161 -0.161 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.006 -0.027 -0.027 -0.027 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.009 -0.010 -0.012 -0.014 -0.027 -0.045 -0.045 -0.045 Total (GW) 1,019 1,036 1,067 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.060 -0.082 -0.113 -0.146 -0.214 -0.272 -0.272 -0.272 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,045 3,231 3,415 3,628 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.357 -0.721 -1.087 -1.451 -1.796 -1.862 -2.111

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,896 1,924 Coal (TWh) 0.004 -0.220 -0.364 -0.395 -0.471 -0.509 -0.509 -0.509 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,138 1,266 1,393 1,472 Gas (TWh) 0.009 -0.083 -0.306 -0.548 -0.720 -0.689 -0.689 -0.689 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.033 -0.033 -0.037 -0.092 -0.407 -0.407 -0.407 Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.051 -0.067 -0.075 -0.126 -0.174 -0.259 -0.259 -0.259 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,311 4,532 4,752 4,966 5,231 Total (TWh) -0.038 -0.405 -0.780 -1.109 -1.461 -1.868 -1.868 -1.868

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.068 -0.065 -0.066 -0.066 -0.069 -0.075 -0.075 -0.075 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.032 -0.070 -0.125 -0.185 -0.279 -0.311 -0.311 -0.311 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.012 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.017 -0.019 -0.024 -0.026 -0.053 -0.088 -0.088 -0.088 Total (GW) 1,019 1,036 1,067 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.117 -0.158 -0.218 -0.282 -0.414 -0.526 -0.526 -0.526 Extrapolation14

- 12 

### Table 14.3.18 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

Table 14.3.19 Medium Voltage Dry Type Transformers Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,045 3,231 3,415 3,628 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.357 -0.721 -1.087 -1.451 -1.796 -1.862 -2.111

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,896 1,924 Coal (TWh) 0.004 -0.220 -0.364 -0.395 -0.471 -0.509 -0.509 -0.509 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,138 1,266 1,393 1,472 Gas (TWh) 0.009 -0.083 -0.306 -0.548 -0.720 -0.689 -0.689 -0.689 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.033 -0.033 -0.037 -0.092 -0.407 -0.407 -0.407 Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.051 -0.067 -0.075 -0.126 -0.174 -0.260 -0.260 -0.260 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,311 4,532 4,752 4,966 5,231 Total (TWh) -0.038 -0.405 -0.780 -1.109 -1.461 -1.868 -1.868 -1.868

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.068 -0.065 -0.066 -0.066 -0.069 -0.075 -0.075 -0.075 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.032 -0.070 -0.125 -0.185 -0.279 -0.311 -0.311 -0.311 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.012 -0.052 -0.052 -0.052 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.017 -0.019 -0.024 -0.026 -0.053 -0.088 -0.088 -0.088 Total (GW) 1,019 1,036 1,067 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.117 -0.158 -0.218 -0.282 -0.414 -0.526 -0.526 -0.526 Extrapolation



### NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2012 Reference Case

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2041 2045 Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 2,738 2,884 3,044 3,231 3,414 3,627 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 -0.538 -1.085 -1.637 -2.184 -2.703 -2.803 -3.178

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,581 1,671 1,786 1,841 1,896 1,923 Coal (TWh) 0.007 -0.331 -0.547 -0.594 -0.709 -0.766 -0.766 -0.766 Gas (TWh) 1,129 1,111 1,137 1,266 1,393 1,472 Gas (TWh) 0.013 -0.125 -0.461 -0.825 -1.084 -1.037 -1.037 -1.037 Petroleum (TWh) 28 28 29 29 30 30 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 Nuclear (TWh) 830 887 917 914 887 963 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 -0.050 -0.050 -0.056 -0.138 -0.613 -0.613 -0.613 Renewables (TWh) 562 614 662 702 759 842 Renewables (TWh) -0.077 -0.101 -0.113 -0.190 -0.262 -0.391 -0.391 -0.391 Total (TWh) 4,131 4,311 4,532 4,752 4,965 5,230 Total (TWh) -0.057 -0.610 -1.174 -1.669 -2.199 -2.812 -2.812 -2.812

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 286 281 282 283 285 288 Coal (GW) -0.102 -0.098 -0.099 -0.100 -0.104 -0.113 -0.113 -0.113 Other Fossil (GW) 467 475 495 525 568 598 Other Fossil (GW) -0.047 -0.105 -0.188 -0.279 -0.421 -0.469 -0.469 -0.469 Nuclear (GW) 104 111 115 114 111 121 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 -0.007 -0.007 -0.008 -0.018 -0.078 -0.078 -0.078 Renewables (GW) 163 168 175 184 201 225 Renewables (GW) -0.026 -0.028 -0.035 -0.039 -0.079 -0.132 -0.132 -0.132 Total (GW) 1,019 1,035 1,067 1,107 1,165 1,232 Total (GW) -0.176 -0.238 -0.329 -0.425 -0.623 -0.792 -0.792 -0.792 Extrapolation14

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### Table 14.3.20 presents the estimated reduction in electricity generating capacity in 2045 for the TSLs that DOE considered in this rulemaking.

Table 14.3.20 Reduction in Elec tric Generating Capacity in 2045 Under Transformer Trial Standard Levels
TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 TSL 6 TSL 7

Liquid Immersed Gigawatts 1.11 1. 93 2.10 3

. 60 3.58 4.14 6.25 Low Voltage Dry Type 2.26 2.41 3.03 4.37 4.44 4.76 Medium Voltage Dry Type 0. 145 0. 272 0. 526 0. 526 0. 792 Total 3.51 4.61 5.65 8.50 8.82 8.91 6.25



### 14.4 IMPACT OF STANDARDS ON ELECTRICITY PRICE S AND ASSOCIATED
BENEFITS FOR CONSUME RS

Using the framework of the utility impact analysis , DOE analyzed the potential impact on electricity prices resultin g from energy conservation standards for transformers . Associated benefits for all electricity users in all sectors of the economy are then derived from these price impacts.

DOE’s analysis of energy price impacts used NEMS

- BT in a similar manner as described in section 14.2. Like other widely- used energy

- economic models, NEMS uses elasticities to estimate the energy price change that would result from a change (increase or decrease) in energy demand. The elasticity of price to a decrease in demand is the “inverse price elasticity.” The calculated inverse price elasticity based on NEMS -BT simulations differs throughout th e forecast period in response to the dynamics of supply and demand for electricity.

14.4.1 Impact on Electricity Prices

DOE analyzed the electricity price effect of energy conservation standards for all three types of transformers considered in this rulemaking. After generating results using higher decrements to energy consumption, a regressed interpolation toward the origin derived the price effects associated with the energy savings of the TSLs. Results were then scaled to the appropriate TSL; the proposed standar d for each transformer type are TSL 1 for liquid immersed type, TSL 1 for low-voltage dry-type, and TSL 2 for medium-voltage dry- type

. The elect ricity price impacts from all three types of transformers were aggregated into a single impact.

Figure 14.4.1 shows the annual change in U.S. electricity sales for the propos ed standards, relative to the base case which involves no new standards.14

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### Figure 14.4.1 Change in U.S. Electricity Sales Associated with Amended Transformer Energy Conservation Standard

Figure 14.4.2 shows the annual change in average U.S. price for electricity, relative to the Reference case, projected to result from the propos ed standards. The price reduction averages 0.002 cents per kWh (in 2012$), or a price reduction of 0.02 percent, over the period from 2016 through 2040. - 14.0 - 12.0 - 10.0

- 8.0 - 6.0 - 4.0 - 2.0 0.0

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036TWh 

## Change in Electricity Sales for Distribution Transformers

Proposed Standards14

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### Figure 14.4.2 Effect of Proposed Transformer Energy Conservation Standard on Average U.S. Electricity Price (All Users)

14.4.2 Impact of Changes in Electricity Price on Electricity Users

Using the estimated electricity price impacts, DOE calculated the nominal savings in total electricity expenditures in each year by multiplying the annual change in the average

- user price for electricity by the total ann ual U.S. electricity sales forecast by NEMS, adjusted for the impact of the standards. The propos ed standards would continue to reduce demand for electricity after 2040 (which is the last year in the NEMS forecas t). DOE’s estimate for 2041 –2045 (the period used to estimate the NPV of the nat ional consumer benefits from propos ed standards) multiplied the average ele ctricity price reduction in 2016–2040 by estimated tota l annual electricity sales in 2041–2045. c 

### DOE then discounted the stream of reduced expenditures to calculate a NPV.

Table 14 .4.1 shows the calculated NPV of the economy- wide savings in electricity expenditures for each considered TSL at 3 -percent and 7-percent discount rates. The need to

c The estimation of electricity sales after 2040 uses the av erage annual growth rate in 2036

- 2040 of total U.S. electricity sales forecasted by NEMS. This forecast includes the impact of the standards. 

### - 0.010 - 0.008 - 0.006 - 0.004 - 0.002

0.000 0.002 0.004

2016 2021 2026 2031 20362012 Cents/kWh 

## Change in Electricity Prices for Distribution Transformers

Proposed Standards14

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### extrapolate price effects and electricity sales beyond 2040 suggests that one should interp ret the post-2040 results as a rough indication of the benefits to el ectricity users in the post -2040 period.

Table 14.4.1 Cumulative NPV of the Economy- Wide Savings in Electricity Expenditures Due to the Projected Decline in Electricity Prices Resulting from the Proposed Stan dards for Transformers * Discount Rate Transformers ( billion $2012 ) 3 percent 1.382 7 percent 0.398

* Impacts for units sold from 2016 to 2045



### 14.4.3 Discussion of Savings in Electricity Expenditures

Although the aggregate benefits for all electricity users are potentially large, there may be negative effects on the actors involved in electricity supply. The electric power industry is a complex mix of power plant pro viders, fuel suppliers, electricity generators, and electricity distributors. While the distribution of electricity is regulated everywhere, the institutional structure of the power sector varies, and has changed over time. For these reasons, an assessment of impacts on the actors involved in electricity supply from reduction in electricity demand associated with energy conservation standards is beyond the scope of this rulemaking.

In considering the potential benefits to electricity users, DOE takes under advisement the provided by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis (OMB Circular A-4 (Sept. 17, 2003), section E, “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs”). Specifically, at page 38, C ircular A

- 4 instructs that transfers should be excluded from the estimates of the benefits and costs of a regulation. DOE is continuing to investigate the extent to which change in electricity prices projected to result from standards represents a net gai n to society.14

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### REFERENCES

1. Ene rgy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference Case Service Report , 2012. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2012).

< http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/>