### Connecticut Regional Haze State Implementation Plan November 2009



## ATTACHMENT O Development of MANE-VU Mobile Source Projection Inventories for SMOKE/MOBILE6 Application

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# Technical Memorandum 

# Development of MANE-VU Mobile Source Projection Inventories for SMOKE/MOBILE6 Application

June 2006, NESCAUM I. Background The MANE-VU Emissions Inventory workgroup chose to utilize in-house expertise to develop future year mobile source emission estimates for us e in Ozone, PM 2.5 

## , and Regional Haze SIP modeling. Jung-Hun Woo, NESCAUM, and Megan Schuste r, MARAMA compiled all the information necessary to run Mobile6 with Sparse Ma trix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) based on the state submitted data. The purpose of t his document is to describe how member states and NESCAUM/MARAMA prepared the mobile sourc e activity data (i.e. non-link based VMT & Speed), Mobile6 scenario input files, and acc ompanying files in SMOKE/MOBILE6 format in support of future year projection invento ry development. 

# II. Procedure 2.1. Base year (Y2002) inventory file The MANE-VU 2002 base year SMOKE/M6-ready mobile so urce files served as a starting point for projection inventory development; hence, the pr ocedures employed for the development of these files are summarized here. E.H Pechan, a co ntractor for MANE-VU, compiled MANEVU 2002 mobile source inventories. The onroad emiss ions inventory was compiled from data supplied by the MANE-VU State agencies in the form of onroad emissions input data or emissions inventories either directly to MANE-VU or to EPA through their CERR submittal. States provided information in one or more of the f ollowing ways: (1) an onroad emission inventory submittal to EPA, (2) MOBILE6 inputs and VMT data in National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) format to EPA, (3) portions of MOBILE6 inputs or full MOBILE6 input files and supporting files plus VMT to EPA, or (4) portio ns of MOBILE6 inputs or full MOBILE6 input files and supporting files plus VMT to MANE-V U. Different procedures were followed in developing the MANE-VU 2002 onroad emission invento ry depending upon how the data were submitted. All States provided information on 2002 onroad activity in the form of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) estimates, although the level of det ail of the VMT data varied by State. After integration of all these data, Pechan compiled onro ad mobile source files in a SMOKE/Mobile6 ready format. 2.2. Preparing technical guidance to create SMOKE/M obile6 ready information As described above, States had the ability and expe rience to develop their mobile source inventory data in NMIM, stand-alone Mobile6, and em issions inventory format. They, however,

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were not familiar with procedures for integrating f iles and converting them into a model ready format. To assist the State workgroup in the creati on of an inventory in (as close as possible to) the SMOKE/Mobile6–ready format, NESCAUM/MARAMA deve loped a technical guidance document ( http://www.marama.org/visibility/Inventory%20Summar y/FutureEmissionsInventory.htm ). In the document, we also explained how State workgroup could download the year 2002 files ( ftp.marama.org ) and update them to create projection inventory fi les. In the technical guidance, States were requested to supply NESCAUM and MARAMA with the data described below, under Required Data. States also had the option to supply NESCAUM and MARAMA with the information listed under Option al Data. REQUIRED DATA: 

## 1) SMOKE/IDA Activity File a. Go to MARAMA FTP site (above), click on Onroad/ Fin al Smoke Files/ MANEVU_2002_mbinv.txt b. Open the MANEVU_2002_mbinv.txt file c. Delete all data that is not your state’s. d. Update file with new header and annual VMT by SCC f or 2009 e. Name file: state_2009_mbinv.txt f. Repeat steps ‘b’ through ‘e’ for years 2012 and 201 8 2) MOBILE6 input scenario files a. Go to MARAMA ftp site, click on MANE-VU Onroad/ Fin al Smoke Files/ MANEVU_2002_SMOKE_M6_InputFiles_12032004.zip /m6_2002/month/statecounty.in b. Provide updated statecounty.in files for each month and year 2009, 2012 and 2018 c. Use same naming convention as the 2002 files – stat ecounty.in
OPTIONAL DATA: 

## 1) If a state wants to, they can update registration data to either 2004 or 2005 a. Go to MARAMA FTP site - Onroad/ Final Smoke Files/MANEVU_2002_SMOKE_M6_ExternalFiles.zip b. As an example, open file 0900002.reg (or any files with extension .reg) c. There is a long header followed by the real data. Real data starts at the line called REG DIST. (See example file below). d. States should update the registration data by vehic le class and age for 2004 or 2005. e. If you update this data and change the name of the file, make sure the M6 input scenario file (required data from above) includes t he correct file name for registration data (REG DIST).

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2.3. States data submittal and compiling future inv entory As States submitted their projected mobile source f iles as listed above, NESCAUM started to integrate Y2018 files and convert them into regiona l (i.e. MANE-VU) files. The following subsections summarize the compilation process for a ctivity input, scenario input files, external files and other SMOKE related files. 1) Activity input data (VMT/Speed) - All member states submitted VMT and speed data. T here were minor issues in data formatting but nothing major. - DE and MA re-submit VMT file at October, 2005 (MA change 2002 VMT, too) - Merge update 2002 MBINV file, ptpro/ptref, scenar io input files for CT and NJ 2) Scenario input files - VT used the same input file for all the counties. So, only 36 input files (i.e. 12months * 3 future years) were provided. VT set 050001 as a ref erence county (MCREF). - VT uses January as reference month for August pro cessing. VT has confirm that they want to change reference month for Apr-Sep as July instead of January. - ME submitted all monthly data in a file. NESCAUM split it by month. - MA submitted only three input files (Avg Summer d ay, Typ Ozon day, Avg Winter day) which were submitted to PECHAN to develop base year input files. NESCAUM created *.in files by copying MANE-VU 2002 base-year *.in files, then change years into 2009/2012/2018 and the link to the new external fil es (LEV2CERT.D, LEV2EVAP.D, LEV2EXH.D). - CT submitted *.IN files on 9/22/2005. The “> I/M DESC” file path had been removed. - RI scenario input files have 044yyc.IN name conve ntion that are supposed to be 044ccc.IN(yy stands for 2digit year and ccc stands for 3digit county FIPS). They are renamed and populated for 12months. - Some states(MD) put "REBUILT EFFECTS" after “SCEN ARIO RECORD” line. They were moved ahead of it. - PA put “ANTI-Tamp” records in external files that need to be in Scenario input files. NESCAUM wrote a Fortran code (pa_input_4_override.f ) and a C-shell script(cp_antitamp_4_pa.csh) to put those records i n scenario input files - NJ has 2012 year tag in 2009 scenario input files . NESCAUM put them back to 2009. - For 2002 scenario input files update (10/27/2006) , CT puts 0.07 Rebuild effect, NJ didn't put any. So, I put 0.1 to NJ 2002 input files. - Putting future year rebuild effect is a modeling decision that needs to be a constant throughout the region. So NESCAUM didn’t correct th at in file compilation. Modelers’ put 10% for the base year (2002) and 90% for the future years(2009/2012/2018). NYSDEC put 0.9 into year 2009 files and NESCAUM put 0.9 into y ear 2018 files before SMOKE/Mobile6 processing. 3) External files - VT uses some of NY state external files (e.g. N YLEV2.D, NYL2EXH.D, NYL2EVAP.D, and NYL2CERT.D) - RI didn't provide any future-specific external files. 2002 MANE-VU M6 external files were used

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- MA and ME used the same named files which have id entical contents to each other: LEV2CERT.D, LEV2EVAP.D, and LEV2EXH.D - DE, PA, and NJ submitted the same named files whi ch have identical contents to each other: NLEVNE.D - DC file produce warnings (but not errors) from SM OKE/Mobile6 test run “User Supplied HC IM240 Cutpoint of 0.500 for yea r 1 and Vehicle Type 1 is Too Low and has been Reset to 0.80 g/mi.” Consulted with D C and get a confirm that it’s ok to use it as-is. 4) Other SMOKE related files - MCREF/MVREF Update MANEVU_2002_mcref.txt for Maine because Penobscot county (23019) was not found from MAINE_pointerfile.xls. Tammy Gould @ Mai ne confirmed that Penobscot (019) has to be added where Piscataquis (021) is. Correct this problem on both MANEVU_2018_mcref.txt and MAINE_pointerfile.xls. MA NEVU_2018_mvref.txt is updated by deleting non-ref counties in ME. - MTPRO/MTREF Add CT and NJ's temporal profile/x-ref to 2018 MA NEVU files 

# III. Sample model run Even though NESCAUM had not run SMOKE/Mobile6 for a ny of the complete projection years, we ran a day worth of each year: 1) to test compatibility of compiled data with SMOKE/Mobile6 system and 2) to examine trends in su bmitted projection data. As seen in the Figure 1 and Figure 2, VMT increases 10~20% compare d to the base year (i.e. year 2002) for the most of states whereas speed remains the same excep t for NY and PA.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

C o n n e c t i c u t D e l a w a r e

D i s t r i c t o f C o l u m b i a M a i n e M a r y l a n d M a s s a c h u s e t t s
N e w H a m p s h i r e N e w J e r s e y N e w Y o r k
P e n n s y l v a n i a R h o d e I s l a n d V e r m o n t M i l l i o n s M i l l i o n s M i l l i o n s M i l l i o n s



### V M T



### VMT_02 VMT_09 VMT_12 VMT_18

## 5 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

C o n n e c t i c u t D e l a w a r e

D i s t r i c t o f C o l u m b i a M a i n e M a r y l a n d M a s s a c h u s e t t s
N e w H a m p s h i r e N e w J e r s e y N e w Y o r k
P e n n s y l v a n i a R h o d e I s l a n d V e r m o n t T h o u s a n d s

T h o u s a n d s

T h o u s a n d s

T h o u s a n d s



### S p e e d



### SPD_02 SPD_09 SPD_12 SPD_18 

## Figure 1. VMT(upper) and Speed (lower) for one day (August 1) of year 2002, 2009, 2012, and 2018

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200

C o n n e c t i c u t D e l a w a r e

D i s t r i c t o f C o l u m b i a M a i n e M a r y l a n d M a s s a c h u s e t t s
N e w H a m p s h i r e N e w J e r s e y N e w Y o r k P e n n s y l v a n i a R h o d e I s l a n d V e r m o n t 

### T P D



### NOx_02 NOx_09 NOx_12 NOx_18

## 6 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

C o n n e c t i c u t D e l a w a r e

D i s t r i c t o f C o l u m b i a M a i n e M a r y l a n d M a s s a c h u s e t t s
N e w H a m p s h i r e N e w J e r s e y N e w Y o r k P e n n s y l v a n i a R h o d e I s l a n d V e r m o n t 

### T P D



### CO_02 CO_09 CO_12 CO_18 

## Figure 2. NOx(upper) and CO (lower) emissions for o ne day (August 1) of year 2002, 2009, 2012, and 2018 Despite VMT increases, NO x 

## and CO emissions decrease dramatically due to futu re-year control programs. Emissions decrease a bit more slo wly after 2009 given fewer anticipated controls during post-2009 years. NOx reductions seen from Figure 2 can be verified i n the spatial (by county) NOx emission maps which were calculated using SMOKE/Mobile6 for August 1 of each year. As region wide emissions decreased by years, emissions from high e mission areas (e.g. urban centers) decreased, as well.7Figure 3. Spatial distribution of emissions from SMOKE/Mobile6 (August 1, NOx)