Puerto Rico

ALABAMA GEORGIA

MISSISSIPPI

LOUISIANA

TENNESSEE

KENTUCKY

ARKANSAS

MISSOURI

NORTH

CAROLINA

SOUTH 

CAROLINA

FLORIDA

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Fact Sheet 2011–3138

November 2011

Science Goals of the U.S. Department of the Interior 

Southeast Climate Science Center

In 2011, the U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center 

(CSC) finalized the first draft of its goals for research needed to address the needs of 

natural and cultural partners for climate science in the Southeastern United States. 

The science themes described in this draft plan were established to address the 

information needs of ecoregion conservation partnerships, such as the Landscape 

Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) and other regional conservation-science and 

resource-management partners. These themes were developed using priorities defined 

by partners and stakeholders in the Southeast and on a large-scale, multidisciplinary 

project—the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP)—developed in concert 

with those partners. 

Science products developed under these themes will provide models of potential 

future conditions, assessments of likely impacts, and tools that can be used to inform the 

conservation management decisions of LCCs and other partners. This information will 

be critical as managers try to anticipate and adapt to climate change. Resource managers 

in the Southeast are requesting this type of information, in many cases as a result of 

observed climate change effects.

The Southeast CSC draft science plan identifies six science themes and frames the activities (tasks, with examples of recommended 

near-term work for each task included herein) related to each theme that are needed to achieve the objectives of the Southeast CSC.

Science Theme 1: Climate and Other Appropriate Projections 

to Use for Resource Management

Task 1: Evaluate needed climate information within the frame of 

Southeast CSC focus resources and study questions

Work with the conservation community, specifically through LCCs, using 

a structured decision-making process to identify resource-management 

questions and determine which downscaled information is the most useful 

for the problem identified.

Task 2: Survey available and forthcoming global climate projections

Use the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) information as 

the basis for Southeast CSC climate projections and evaluate potential use 

of upcoming CMIP5 projections.

Task 3: Decide whether and (or) how to cull and update global projections

Use all available model projections from CMIP3.

Task 4: Characterize how global projections can be downscaled and 

bias corrected 

Obtain available CMIP3 climate-projection information (raw AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Model [AOGCM] results and bias-corrected 

and (or) downscaled translations) over the Southeast. Evaluate the 

historical periods of simulation and evaluate simulation adequacy for 

the menu of climate conditions considered. 

Task 5: Develop climate scenarios for Southeast CSC impacts, 

vulnerability, and adaptation assessments

Use information from Tasks 1 to 4 to construct climate change scenarios 

specific to the science needs of stakeholders in the Southeast. This includes 

working to characterize and quantify uncertainty in climate change 

projections to provide better information for CSC assessment activities. 

Geographic area of 

Southeast Climate 

Science Center
Science Theme 2: Land Use and Land-Cover Change Projections

Task 1: Conduct regionally focused research on land-use and land-cover 

change rates, causes, and consequences

Develop land-cover mapping and land-change detection methods with 

increased accuracy and spatial and temporal resolution by building on 

previous research conducted as part of SERAP.

Task 2: Research data on droughts, floods, and water availability under 

changing land use and climate

Identify land use practices that enhance or decrease the effects of 

climate change on water resources.

Task 3: Conduct research on biological responses to changing land use 

and climate

Identify potential impacts of land-cover change on species distributions 

and plant communities through modeled scenarios.

Task 4: Develop land cover and habitat projections for the southeastern 

United States

Continue developing models of land-cover change and vegetation 

dynamics that incorporate the influences of projected climate changes 

from Theme 1. Model the influence of land-cover change scenarios on 

regional climate (for example, urban-growth heat island effects).

Science Theme 3: Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

Task 1: Develop predictive groundwater, surface-water, and waterquality models in natural and human dominated systems

Work with LCCs and other partners to identify and prioritize 

watersheds and aquifers that are important for resource management.

Task 2: Conduct research to improve hydrologic models

Develop new models or tools that focus on multiple spatial and 

temporal scales. The models should be scalable so that local managers 

can use the data produced by a large-scale model to populate models

 at finer scales.

Task 3: Provide Web-based portal access to existing hydrologic 

models and calibration data

Continue to develop the structure for a Web-based portal that will 

allow the modeling community to share input and output data in 

formats that are appropriate for many different models.

Task 4: Provide support to the LCCs and other partners to produce 

vulnerability assessments 

Provide support in conducting vulnerability assessments of freshwater 

systems based on watershed or appropriate geographic measures in 

relation to the hypothesis, species, or population of management

 concern, and share appropriate derivative products with LCCs and 

others for further collaborative work in priority areas.
Science Theme 4: Ecological Research and Modeling

Task 1: In close collaboration with LCCs, States, and other stakeholders, determine the 

highest priority species and populations for the development of distribution maps and 

population or phenology models 

In cooperation with partners and stakeholders, identify subsets of, and develop future 

distribution models for, a range of focal taxa, pest species, and foundation species. 

Task 2: Test whether the predicted responses of species to climate change and land-use 

change match observed changes

Identify taxa for which data are available or can be made available to study historic (for 

example, during glacial cycles) responses to climate change or modern (last hundred years) 

responses to climate change. 

Task 3: Conduct laboratory and field experiments to document organismal responses to 

climate change

Perform both observational and controlled experiments, such as climate chamber research, 

most germane to the focal taxa, pest species, and foundation species identified as priority 

species. Incorporate results from experiments into distribution, phenology, and abundance 

modeling approaches.

Task 4: Identify new or altered species interactions that are likely to have a disproportionate 

impact on community structure and ecosystem function 

Use insights gained from executing Tasks 1–3 to identify pest and pathogen species that are 

likely to interact strongly with a new set of hosts, and anticipated new sets of predator-prey and 

competitive interactions that are likely to have large community or ecosystem consequences.

Task 5: Provide support to LCCs in assessing new strategies to conserve natural communities 

and ecosystems

Provide support to LCCs and other partners as they formulate a set of strategies to identify onthe-ground priorities for conservation that are most likely to protect biodiversity in the future 

but do not hinge on assumptions surrounding species-specific responses to climate change. 

Science Theme 5: Coastal and Nearshore Marine Environments

Task 1: Establish ecological baseline conditions and describe current climate trends and 

impacts in coastal systems

Develop detailed maps of coastal habitats and species distributions in the South Atlantic and 

eastern Gulf of Mexico coastal zones building on work conducted during the SERAP.

Task 2: Develop scenarios of coastal landform and habitat change 

Initiate process-oriented studies to quantitatively identify the effects of sea-level rise and other 

stressors on coastal systems for the southeastern coastal region using products created during 

the SERAP as a foundation.

Task 3: Describe how estuaries and marine resources are affected by increased temperature, 

sea-level rise, changes in runoff patterns to the coast, ocean acidification, and changes in the 

destructive potential of tropical storms

Identify field sites and candidate lists of organisms that can serve as marine ecosystem “sentinels” 

for early- warning purposes and develop standard operating procedures for long-term monitoring.

Task 4: Provide support in assessing potential impacts on highly vulnerable coastal and marine habitats

Work with LCCs and other partners to develop a working list of priority coastal habitats and 

locations for the entire Southeast CSC.

Task 5: Provide support for the assessment of potential management responses

Provide support to the LCCs and other partners to identify how management of priority species 

and habitats from Theme 4 and cultural heritage resources from Theme 6 can incorporate climate 

and land-use change trends and projections from Themes 1 and 2. 
Science Theme 6: Impacts of Climate Change on 

Cultural-Heritage Resources

Task 1: Provide support in developing inventory and monitoring 

plans for cultural-heritage resources

Work with LCCs and other partners to determine data available, 

and evaluate current strategies and methods to inventory and 

monitor cultural-heritage resources; develop new or improved 

methods where necessary.

Task 2: Provide support to the LCCs and other partners to assess 

the vulnerability of cultural-heritage resources to climate change 

In partnership with the LCCs, State historic preservation offices, 

Tribes, and others as necessary, provide regional scale tools and 

data sets to determine the cultural-heritage resources most at risk. 

Task 3:Facilitate paleoecological and paleoclimate research for 

cultural-heritage resources

Gather proxy climate data from existing data sources (for example, 

Theme 1, SERAP, data.gov, climate.gov) for the Southeast, 

including fire-frequency data, historic temperature and weather 

records, sea-level change, and sediment and soil profiles.

Task 4: Provide support for cultural-heritage resources climate 

change planning 

Support the development of seamless southeastern data sets of 

the locations, conditions, and vulnerabilities of cultural-heritage 

resources and associated metadata for use by agencies, LCCs, and 

States for conservation planning. The Southeast CSC will develop 

capacity within the GeoData Portal to ensure that data or work 

involving cultural-heritage resources adheres to federal, State, and 

tribal requirements to protect sensitive location information.

Contact Information

Gerard McMahon, Ph.D.

Director

DOI Southeast Climate Science Center

Department of Biology

240 David Clark Labs

North Carolina State University

Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-7617

Phone: 919-515-2229

e-mail: gmcmahon@usgs.gov

Acronyms Used in this Fact Sheet

AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model 

CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

CSC Climate Science Center 

LCCs Landscape Conservation Cooperatives 

SERAP Southeast Regional Assessment Project

Photo credits:

Page 1, bottom: Hurricane Irene, accessed September 8, 2011, 

at http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/

2011/h2011_Irene.html.

Page 2, top: U.S. map: Fry, J., Xian, G., Jin, S., Dewitz, J., 

Homer, C., Yang, L., Barnes, C., Herold, N., and Wickham, J., 

2011, Completion of the 2006 National Land Cover Database 

for the conterminous United States: Photogrammetric

Engineering & Remote Sensing (PE&RS), v. 77(9), p. 858–864. 

Page 3, top: Red-cockaded woodpecker courtesy of Will Stuart

Photographs by Alan M. Cressler, USGS

Page 2, bottom: Hymenocallis coronaria (spider lily), 

Cahaba River, Hargrove Shoals, Cahaba National Wildlife 

Refuge, Alabama

Page 3, top: Viola palmata, early blue violet

Anhinga anhinga (American darter), Shark Valley, 

 Everglades National Park, Florida

Elliptio complanata (eastern elliptio, freshwater mussel)

Hibiscus coccineus (scarlet rosemallow)

Pseudotriton ruber schencki (black-chinned red salamander)

Page 3, bottom: St. Vincent Sound, mainland side, beach erosion, 

Franklin County, Florida 

Page 4, top: Fort Jefferson, Dry Tortugas National Park, Florida

Damian Shea, Ph.D. 

Professor of Biology and 

Environmental Toxicology

Department of Biology

142 David Clark Labs, 

Campus Box 7617

North Carolina State University

Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-7617

Phone 919-513-3065

e-mail: d_shea@ncsu.edu

For more information please visit http://www.theglobalchangeforum.org/se-csc/