# Heavy

- Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas (HDGHG) Emissions Inventory for Air Quality Modeling Technical Support

DocumentEPA-420-R-11-008 August 2 011 Air Quality Assessment Division Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

Office of Air and Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

# Heavy

- Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas (HDGHG) Emissions Inventory for Air Quality Modeling Technical Support

Documenti 

## TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACRONYMS

.................................................................................................................................................... ii

LIST OF TABLES

........................................................................................................................................... iii

LIST OF APPENDICES

................................................................................................................................. iii

1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1

2 2005 Emission inventories and their preparation ................................................................................. 2

2.1 Custom configuration for emissions modeling for HDGHG ............................................................. 4

2.2 Point, Nonpoint, Nonroad, and non-U.S. sources .............................................................................. 6

2.3 2005 Onroad Mobile sources .............................................................................................................. 6

3 VOC speciation changes that represent fuel changes ........................................................................... 7

4 2030 Reference Case ............................................................................................................................... 10

4.1 St ationary source projections: EGU sector (ptipm) ......................................................................... 17

4.2 Stationary source projections: non-EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag, afdust) ............................. 17

4.2.1 Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust) ...................................................................................... 18

4.2.2 Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt) ............................................................................. 19

4.2.3 Gasoline Stage II growth and control (nonpt, ptnonipm) ............................................................. 19

4.2.4 Portable fuel container growth and control (nonpt) ..................................................................... 20

4.2.5 Aircraft growth (ptnonipm) .......................................................................................................... 21

4.2.6 Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant closures (ptnonipm, nonpt) ..................................................................................................................................... 22

4.2.7 Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt) ........................... 26

4.3 Mobile source projections ................................................................................................................ 27

4.3.1 Onroad mobile (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm) ............................................ 27

4.3.2 Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3) ..................................... 30

4.3.3 Class 3 commercial marine vessels (seca_c3) .............................................................................. 32

4.4 Canada, Mexico, and Offshore sources (othar, othon, and othpt) .................................................... 33

5 2030 Control Case .................................................................................................................................. 33

5.1 2030 Control Case Point and Nonpoint sources ............................................................................... 33

5.2 2030 Control Case Mobile sources ................................................................................................... 34

6 References ............................................................................................................................................... 35ii 

## ACRONYMS

AEO Annual Energy Outlook

BEIS Biogenic Emission Inventory System btp Bulk plant terminal

- to -pump C3 Category 3 (commercial marine vessels)

CAP Criteria Air Pollutant

CARB California Air Resources Board CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality

CSAPR Cross

- State Air Pollution (formerly Transport) Rule

E0 0% Ethanol gasoline

E10 10% Ethanol gasoline

EISA Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

EGU Electric Generating Utilit y FAA Federal Aviation Administration

FIPS Federal Information Processing Standard

HAP Hazardous Air Pollutant

HDGHG Heavy Duty Greenhouse Gas

HONO HNO2, nitrous acid

IPM Integrated Planning Model

LDGHG Light Duty Greenhouse Gas

MOBILE6 Mobile Source Emission Factor Model, version 6

MOVES Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator

MY Model Year

NEEDS National Electric Energy Database System

NEI National Emission Inventory

NMIM National Mobile Inventory Model OAQPS EPA’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

ORL One Record per Line (a SMOKE input format)

MP Multipollutant

NO Nitric oxide

NO2 Nitrogen dioxide

NOX Nitrogen oxides

PFC Portable Fuel Container

PE C Elemental carbon component of PM2.5

PMFINE Leftover “Other”, or “crustal” component of PM2.5

PNO3 Particulate nitrate component of PM2.5

PSO4 Particulate sulfate component of PM2.5

PO C Organic carbon component of PM2.5

r bt Refinery

- to -bulk terminal

RFS2 R evised annual renewable fuel standard

SMOKE Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions

SCC Source Category Code

TAF Terminal Area Forecast

TSD Technical Support Document

VOC Volatile Organic Compound

WRAP Western Regional Air Partnershipiii 

## LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 -1. List of cases run in support of the HDGHG air quality modeling ................................................... 1

Table 2 -1. Sectors Used in Emissions Modeling for the HDGHG Platform ..................................................... 2

Table 2 -2. Model species produced by SMOKE for CB05 with SOA for HDGHG platform .......................... 5

Table 2 -3. Description of differences in ancillary data between the HDGHG 2005 case and the 2005 v4.2 platform ...................................................................................................................................................... 6

Table 2

- 4. HONO, NO, and NO2 computations in HDGHG versus 2005v4.2 platform .................................. 7

Table 3

- 1. Summary of VOC speciation profile approaches by sector across cases ........................................ 9

Table 4 -1. Control strategies and growth assumptions for creating the 2030 Reference case emissions

inventories from the 2005 bas e case ......................................................................................................... 14

Table 4 -2. Growth factors from year 2005 to 2030 for Animal Operations .................................................... 18

Table 4 -3. Projection Factors for growing year 2005 Residential Wood Combustion Sources ...................... 19

Table 4 -4. Factors used to project 2005 base- case aircraft emissions to year 2030 ........................................ 21

Table 4 -5. Summary of Non-EGU Emission Reductions Applied to the 2005 Inventory due to Unit and Plant

Closures .................................................................................................................................................... 23

Table 4 -6. Future- year ISIS -based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr) for the non-EGU (ptnonipm)

sector ......................................................................................................................................................... 24

Table 4 -7. State- level non

- MACT Boiler Reductions from ICR Data Gathering ........................................... 25

Table 4 -8. National Impact of RICE Controls on 2030 Non-EGU Projections .............................................. 25

Table 4 -9. Impact of Fuel Sulfur Controls on 2014 Non-EGU Projections .................................................... 26

Table 4 -10. Oil and Gas NO X and SO 2 Emissions for 2005 and 2030 including additional reductions due to

the RICE NESHAP ................................................................................................................................... 26

Table 4 -11. Components of 2030 HDGHG Nonroad Sector .......................................................................... 30

Table 4 -12. Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2

Commercial Marine Vessel Emissions to 2030 ........................................................................................ 31

Table 4 -13. NO X , SO 2 , and PM 2.5 Factors to Project Class 3 Commercial Marine Vessel emissions to 2030

.................................................................................................................................................................. 33

Table 5 -1. Upstream HDGHG Control Case adjustments ............................................................................... 34

Table 5 -2. Onroad mobile reductions from HDGHG controls ........................................................................ 34



## LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 4 -1. MOVES exhaust temperature adjustment functions for 2005 and 2030 ...................................... 29



## LIST OF APPENDICES

APPENDIX A : Modified HDGHG Equations to adapt pre

- speciated diesel emissions from MOVES to air quality modeling species needed for CMAQ

.
APPENDIX B: Inventory Data F iles Used for Each H DGHG Modeling Case

– SMOKE Input Inventory

Datasets

APPENDIX C: Ancillary Data Files Used for HDGHG 2005 Case Compared to 2005 v4.2 Platform Data

Files

APPENDIX D: Summary of HD GHG Rule 2030 Reference Case Non -EGU Control Programs, Closures and Projections1 

## 1 Introduction

This document provides the details of emissions data processing done in support of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NH TSA) joint rulemaking effort under the Clean Air Act (CAA) and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) to establish fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions standards for c ommercial medium-and h eavy -d uty
on-h ighway v ehicles and work trucks beginning with the 2014 model year (MY) . This rulemaking effort is

hereafter referred to in this technical support document (TSD) as the Heavy Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas (H DGHG) rule and consists of t hree emissions cases. Table 1-1 provides of list of the emissions cases

created for this modeling effort.

T able 1-1. List of cases run in support of the H DGHG air quality modeling

Case Name Internal EPA

Abbreviation Description

2005 B ase case 2005c s_hdghg 2005 case created using average year fires data and an average year temporal allocation approach for Electrical Generating Units ( EGUs ), used to compute relative response factors with 2030 scenarios

. 2030 Reference case 2030cs_hdghg _ref 2030 “reference ” (baseline) scenario representing the

best estimate for the future year without implementation

of national heavy duty vehicle emissions standards.

2030 Control case 2030c s_ h dghg _ctl 20 30 “control” case scenario representing implementation of national emissions standards , phased in between 2014 and 2018, for (c ommercial medium and) heavy

- duty vehi cles

.

The data used in the 2005 emissions cases are often the same as those d escribed in the Transport Rule Final

CAP -BAFM 2005-based, Version 4.2 P latform TSD ( http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2005 ),

but some different emissions data are used for this rulemaking. Specifically, t he H DGHG modeling used data intended only for the rule development and not for general use. All of the documentation provided here describes what was done differently and specifically for the H DGHG effort in contrast to what is used in the

v4.2 platform.

In H DGHG

, we used a 2005 base case approach for the year 2005 emissions scenario . This approach is very similar to that in the recently promulgated Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) Final Rule (formerly known as the “Transport Rule”) . A base case approach uses average year fires and EGU temporal profiles

from three years of EGU data. We use a base case approach because we want to reduce year

- specific variability in some components of the inventory. F or example , large fires vary in location and day of the year each year, and EGU shutdowns and high use on high energy demand days also vary by year. By using a base case approach, these two aspects of the inventory are maintained in future year modeling and therefore do not introduce potentially spurious year- specific artifacts in air quality modeling estimates. For HD GHG

, the same biogenic emissions data as the v4 .2 platform was used for the 2005 case, and also for both future

year cases . The only significant data change s between the 2005 and the 2030 future

- year HDGHG cases are the emission inventories and speciation approaches.

For this effort , we have created and provided county- level emission summaries for criteria pollutants and select hazardous air pollutant s ( e.g. benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, acrolein, 1,3-butadiene, ethanol, naphthalene) by emissions modeling sector for the case s listed above. Summaries are included by month using average day emissions and separately with annual totals. The se data have been provided to the EPA2 docket for this rule. In addition, the data will be posted on the Clearinghouse for Inventories and Emissions

Factors (CHIEF) website in early August 2011 under the “H DGHG 2005 and 2030 emissions data” link at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2005

.

In the remainder of this document, we provide a description of the approaches taken for the emissions in support of air quality modeling for H DGHG . In Section 2 , we describe the ancillary data and 2005 inventory

differences from the v4 .2 platform. In Section 3 , we describe the speciation differences amon g each of the

cases run for HDGHG . In Section 4 , we describe the 2030 Reference case as compared to the 2005 base case, and in Section 5 , we describe the 2030 Control Case in comparison to the 2030 Reference case.



## 2 2005 Emissio n i nventories and their preparation

As mentioned previously, the 2005 emissions modeling approach for HDGHG used much of the same data and approaches as the 2005 v4.2 platform. In this section, we identify the differences between the data used

for H DGHG and that used for the 2005 v4.2 platform. Section 2.1 provide s ancillary data differences that impact multiple sectors and Sections 2.2 through 2.3 provides differences for the point, area, and mobile

sectors.

Table 2-1 below lists the platform sectors used for the H DGHG modeling platform. It also indicates which platform sectors include HAP emissions and the associated sectors from the National Emission Inventory (NEI) . Subsequent sections refer to these platform sectors for identifying the emissions differences between the v4.2 platform and the H DGHG platform.

Table 2-1. Sectors Used in Emissions Modeling for the H DGHG Platform

Platform Sector 2005 NEI

S ector Description Contains HAP

emissions?

IPM sector: ptipm Point NEI EGU units at facilities mapped to the IPM model using the National Electric Energy Dat abase System (NEEDS) database. Yes

Non

- IPM sector: ptnonipm Point + All NEI point source units not matched to the ptipm sector

, including aircraft

. Yes

Average

- fire sector: avefire N / A Average

- year wildfire and prescr ibed fire emissions , county and

annual resolution. Yes

Agricultural sector:

ag Nonpoint NH3 emissions from NEI nonpoint livestock and fertilizer application. No

Area fugitive dust

sector: afdust Nonpoint PM 10 and PM 2.5 emissions from fugitive dust sources in the NEI nonpoint inventory. No

Remaining nonpoint

sector: nonpt Nonpoint + All nonpoint sources not otherwise included in other emissions modeling sectors. Yes

Nonroad sector:

nonroad Mobile:

Nonroad Monthly nonroad emissions from the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM) using NONROAD2005 version nr05c

- BondBase, which is equivalent to NONROAD2008a, since it incorporated

Bond rule revisions to some of the base

- case inputs and the Bond

rule controls did not take effect until later. NMIM was used for all

states except California. Monthly emissions for California created from annual emissions submitted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) for the 2005v2 NEI. Yes

Aircraft, locomotive, marine: alm_no_c3 Mobile:

Nonroad Primarily 2002 NEI non

- rail maintena nce locomotives, and category 1 and category 2 commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions sources, county and annual resolution. Aircraft

emissions are no longer in this sector and are now included in the

Non

- EGU sector (as point sources) ; also, category 3 CMV

emissions are no longer in this sector and are now contained in the
seca_c3 sector. Yes3 Platform Sector 2005 NEI

S ector Description Contains HAP

emissions?

C3 commercial

marine: seca_c3 Mobile:

nonroad Annual point source

- formatted, year 2005 category 3 (C3) CMV emissions, developed for the rule called “Control of Emissions from New Marine Compression

- Ignition Engines at or Above 30 Liters per Cylinder”, usually described as the Emissions Control Area (ECA) study (http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm). Utilized final projections from 2002, developed for the C3 ECA Proposal to the International Maritime Organization (EPA

- 420 -F10

- 041, August 2010). Yes

Onroad , except gasoline PM : on_noadj Mobile:

onroad + Three, monthly, county

- level components: 1) California onroad, created using annual emissions for all pollutants, submitted by CARB for the 2005v2 NEI. NH3 (not submitted by CARB) from MOVES2010a

. 2) Onroad gasoline and diesel vehicle emissions from

MOVES2010a not subject to temperature adjustme nts: exhaust CO, NOX, VOC, NH3, benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, 1,3

- butadiene, acrolein, naphthalene, brake and tire wear PM, and evaporative VOC, benzene, and naphthalene. 3) Onroad emissions for Hg from NMIM using MOBILE6.2,

other than for Californ ia. Yes

Onroad starting

exhaust PM:
on_moves_startpm Mobile:

onroad + Monthly, county

- level MOVES2010a

- based onroad gasoline emissions subject to temperature adjustments. Limited to exhaust mode only for PM species and naphthalene. California emissions

not included. This sector is limited to cold start mode emissions that contain different temperature adjustment curves from running exhaust (see on_moves_runpm sector). No

Onroad running

exhaust PM

on_ moves_run pm Mobile:

onroad + Monthly, county

- level draft MOVES2010a

- based onroad gasoline emissions subject to temperature adjustments. Limited to exhaust mode only for PM species and naphthalene. California emissions not included. This sector is limited to running mode emissions

t hat contain different temperature adjustment curves from cold start exhaust (see on_moves_startpm sector). No

Biogenic: biog N/A Hour

- specific, grid cell

- specific emissions gen erated from the BEIS3.14 model, including emissions in Canada and

Mexico. Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform. No

Other point sources

not from the NEI: othpt N/A Point sources from Canada’s 2006 inventory and Mexico’s Phase III 1999 inventory, annual resolution. Also includes annual U.S. offshore oil 2005v2 NEI point source

emissions. Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform. No

Other nonpoint and

nonroad not from

the NEI: othar N/A Annual year 2006 Canada (province resolution) and year 1999 Mexico Phase III (municipio resolution) nonpoint and

nonroad mobile inventories. Unchanged from the 2005v4 platform. No

Other onroad

sources not from the

NEI: othon N/A Year 2006 Canada (province resolution) and year 1999 Mexico Phase III (municipio resolution) onroad mobile inventories, annual resolution. Unchanged from the 2005 v4 platform. No

+ Some data included in modeling sector has been revised beyond what is included in the 2005 NEI v 1 or v 2.

As with the 2005 v4.2 platform, the primary emissions modeling tool used to create the air quality model

ready emissions was the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system ( http://www.smoke -model.org/index.cfm ). We used SMOKE version 2.6 to create emissions files for a 36

- km national grid, and 12- km Eastern and 12-km Western grids for the 2005 base case (also known as the “2005cs_hdghg_05b” case).4 

### 2.1 **Custom configuration for emissions modeling for H**  **DGHG**

Unlike the 2005 v4.2 platform, the configuration for H DGHG modeling included additional hazardous air pollutant s ( HAP s) and used slightly revised ancillary speciation data. Both of these differences are described

in this section.

Table 2-2 lists the additional HAP pollutants processed for the H DGHG platform

, which were not included in the 2005 v4.2 platform. How ever, since using the full multipollutant HAP version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality ( CMAQ ) model would have taken longer than the time available for our project, we used a “lite” version of the multipollutant CMAQ (Version 4.7) that required emissions only for the species

listed in the footnote of Table 2-2

.5 Table 2-2. Model species produced by SMOKE for CB05 with SOA for HDGHG platform

Inventory Pollutant Model Species Model species description

CL2 CL2 Atomic gas

- phase chlorine

HCl HCL Hydrogen Chloride (hydrochloric acid) gas

CO CO Carbon monoxide

NO X NO Nitrogen oxide

NO2 Nitrogen dioxide

HONO Nitrous acid

SO 2 SO2 Sulfur dioxide

SULF Sulfuric acid vapor

NH 3 NH3 Ammonia

VOC ACROLEIN * Acrolein from the HAP inventory

ALD2 Acetaldehyde from VOC speciation
ALD_PRIMARY * Acetaldehyde from the HAP inventory

ALDX Propionaldehyde and higher aldehydes

BENZENE Benzene (not part of CB05)

BUTADIENE13 * 1,3

- butadiene from the HAP inventory

ETH Ethene

ETHA Ethane

ETOH Ethanol

FORM Formaldehyde
FORM_PRIMARY * Formaldehyde from the HAP inventory

IOLE Internal olefin carbon bond (R

- C=C

- R)

ISOP Isoprene

MEOH Methanol

OLE Terminal olefin carbon bond (R

- C=C)

PAR Paraffin carbon bond

TOL Toluene and other monoalkyl aromatics

XYL Xylene and other polyalkyl aromatics

Various additional VOC species from the biogenics model which do not map to the above model species SESQ Sesquiterpenes

TERP Terpenes

PM 10 PMC Coarse PM > 2.5 microns and ≤ 10 microns

PM 2.5 PEC Particulate elemental carbon ≤ 2.5 microns

PNO3 Particulate nitrate ≤ 2.5 microns

POC Particulate organic carbon (carbon only) ≤ 2.5 microns

PSO4 Particulate Sulfate ≤ 2.5 microns

PMFINE Other particulate matter ≤ 2.5 microns

Sea

- salt species (non

– anthropogenic emissions) PCL Particulate chloride

PNA Particulate sodium

• - ACROLEIN, ALD2_PRIMARY, BUTADIENE13, and FORM_PRIMARY are the extra “CMAQ

- lite” HAPs that are not in the v4.2 platform.

In addition to the model species differences , the H DGHG platform had a few additional custom aspects in

the 2005 cases. Table 2-3 lists the datasets used by the H DGHG platform that are different from the v4.2 platform. In addition, Appendix C provides a more detailed comparison of the ancillary datasets for the 2005 v4.2 platform versus the H DGHG platform.6 Another consideration is the speciation across the H DGHG future -year cases as compared to 2005. Section 3 provides a detailed account of these differences. Otherwise, the future- year ancillary data were largely the same as those in 2005, with no substantial differences. All ancillary data files can be found at the 2005

- based platform website ( http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2005 ).

Table 2-3. Description of differences in ancillary data between the H DGHG 2005 case and the 2005 v4.2 platform

Ancillary Data Type Difference between 2005 v4 .2 platform and H DGHG platform Speciation cross

references and Speciation profiles The H DGHG data files are configured to support the multi

- pollutant (MP) version of CMAQ, whereas the 2005 v4.2 platform data file is configured to support only the non-MP version. Therefore, the H DGHG data files include profiles for additional VOC HAP species. Inventory tables The HDGHG data file is configure d to support the MP “lite” version of CMAQ,

whereas the 2005 v4.2 platform data file is confi gured to support only the nonMP version.



### 2.2 **Point , Nonpoint, Nonroad, and non** 

**- U.S. s**  **ources**
With the exception of the extra VOC HAPs retained in HDGHG processing, the 2005 HDGHG emissions for all sectors except for U.S. onroad mobile sectors (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, and on_moves_startpm) are identical to those provided in the 2005 Version 4.2-based Transport Rule Final TSD. All point source sectors (ptnonipm, point), nonpoint source sectors (nonpt, afdust, ag, avefire), nonroad sectors (alm_no_c3, nonroad, seca_c3) and Canada and Mexico sector (othar, othon, othpt) inventories are the same in the 2005 HDGHG platform as the 2005v4.2 emissions modeling platform. Th e 2005v4.2 TSD can be found at: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf

.



### 2.3 **2005 Onroad**  **Mobile sources**

Onroad mobile sources include three sectors for US onroad emissions (on_noadj, on_moves_startpm, on_moves_runpm). As discussed in the previous section, the t hree US nonroad sectors (nonroad, alm_no_c3 , and seca_c3 ) and the Canada/Mexico onroad emissions (othon) are unchanged from the 2005v4.2 platform.

For onroad mobile, the MOVES -based emissions in the on_noadj sector and the on_moves_startpm and

on_moves_runpm sectors (completely MOVES

- based) emissions inventory data are from the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator ( MOVES2010, specifically, version MOVES2010a ) model. The NH3 onroad emissions in California (on_noadj sector) use MOVES2010 (a) -based emissions in HDGHG compared to the NMIM (MOBILE6) -based emissions in the 2005v4.2 platform.

The H DGHG onroad emissions keep additional HAPs as described in Section 2.1 . In addition for these MOVES sectors, t he temperature adjustment calculations applied to PM 2.5 species were the same as in the

v4.2 platform

.

For HDGHG, MOVES2010a was used in conjunction with an internal default database MOVESDB20100913, which contained performance updates from the MOVESDB20100826, the database originally released with MOVES2010a and used in the 2005v4.2 platform. Specifically, the MOVES2010a

emissions updates for HDGHG include improved PM exhaust estimates (particula rly for future year estimates). In addition, we used NO and NO 2 directly from MOVES2010a for HDGHG, rather than the

default NO/NO 2 speciation from NO X used in 2005v4.2 processing. Table 2-4 shows the default NO, NO 2 , and HONO fractions used in 2005v4.2 versus the equations for HDGHG, where NO_MOVES and NO2_MOVES are the MOVES2010 -provided NO and NO 2 emissions. The HONO, compute d from total7 MOVES NOX (sum of NO and NO2 from MOVES) is subtracted out of MOVES NO2 to conserve mass. The speciation of MOVES HONO, NO and NO2 is based on the molecular weight of NO 2 (46); that is, these

NO X components were speciated assuming they were i nventoried as NO2- equivalent; all pr ior speciation of

MOVES NO X was also based on NO2 molecular weight equivalency.

Table 2-4. HONO, NO, and NO2 computations in HDGHG versus 2005v4.2 platform

CMAQ Specie HDGHG 2005v4.2

NO NO_MOVES NOX * 0.9

NO2 0.992 * NO2_MOVES

– 0.008 * NO_MOVES NOX * 0.092

HONO 0.008 * (NO2_MOVES + NO_MOVES) NOX * 0.008

With one notable exception discussed here , f or onroad gasoline exhaust PM emissions, the allocation of

MOVES PM2.5 emissions to SMOKE- ready format PM species is the same as the 2005v4.2 platform and is documented in Appendix D of the 2005v4.1 TSD: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/tox ics/2005v4.1_appendices.pdf . The exception to these equations is that for HDGHG processing, NH 4 (ammonium) is removed from the computation of POC (PM 2.5 -based organic carbon) in equation 9, which in turn, affects the PMFINE (“other”, or “crustal” PM 2.5 ) c omputation in equation 10. In short, MOVES2010a for HDGHG included improved PM exhaust estimates, and for diesel exhaust, the larger sulfate (PSO4) component was creating more NH 4 in equation 7 than available “PM25OM” from MOVES2010a, where MOVES -provided species are related as follows:

PM25_TOTAL = PM25EC + PM25OM + PSO4

CMAQ requires the five CMAQ species to also sum to total PM2.5:

PM2.5 = POC +PEC+PNO3+PSO4+PMFINE

Appendix A in this document contains the revised text and equations, specifically, equation 7b for diesel

exhaust. A recent study ( SRI , 2009) also showed that, despite being sampled for NH 4 and other ionic species in the particle phase, no particle phase NH 4 was found in downstream filter tests. OTAQ experts agreed that

NH 4 for diesel exhaust must therefore removed, but we did not have time to reprocess gasoline exhaust PM (on_moves_runpm and on_moves_startpm sector ) emissions wi th NH 4 removed so the gasoline exhaust PM emissions do include some ammonium. However, PSO4 for gasoline exhaust is considerably smaller than diesel exhaust so the impact is likely negligible for air quality modeling. It is important to note that total PM2.5 was conserved for both gasoline and diesel exhaust (e.g., PM2_5_TOTAL from MOVES and PM2.5 for CMAQ are identical). Note that PM emissions from these diesel sources are not subject to temperature adjustments like the on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm sectors.



## 3 VOC speciation changes that represent fuel changes

A significant detail that is different in each of the HDGHG modeling cases than in the 2005v4.2 emissions modeling is the VOC speciation profiles used to split total VOC emissions into the VOC model species

needed for C MAQ. In this section , we summarize the various speciation profile information used in configuring the v arious cases

.

The VOC speciation approach used for the base-year case HD GHG 2005 has some notable differences from the 2005 v4.2 platform for many emissions modes (e.g., evaporative, exhaust) and processes (e.g., diesel, gasoline, refueling) . Two significant updates in the 2005 HDGHG are : 1) headspace vapor speciation utilizes a combination of the E10 headspace vapor profile (8763) and E0 headspace vap or profile (8762) as8 opposed to using solely E0 for 2005 1

Table 3-1 , and 2) a new Heavy Duty Diesel vehicle exhaust mode profile (8774) for pre -2007 model year (MY) vehicles that replaces an older 2004-vintage medium-duty diesel profile (4674). See for more details.

The VOC speciation approach used for each of the future- year cases is customized to account for the impact of fuel changes . These changes affect the on_noadj sector, the nonroad sector, and parts of the nonpt and ptnonipm sectors. The speciation changes from fuels in the nonpt sector are for portable fuel containers (PFCs) and fuel distribution operations associated with the bulk-plant- to -pump (btp) distribution. The speciat ion changes from fuels in the ptnonipm sector include btp distribution operations inventoried as point sources. Refinery to bulk terminal (rbt) fuel distribution speciation does not change across the modeling cases because this is considered upstream from the introduction of ethanol into the fuel. Mapping of fuel distribution SCCs to btp and rbt emissions categories can be found in Appendix A of the revised annual Renewable Fuel Standard ( RFS2 ) Emissions Inventory for Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document (EPA Report No. 420-R-10-005, January 2010, http://www.epa.gov/otaq/renewablefuels/420r10005.pdf ).

Table 3-1 summarizes the different profiles utilized for the fuel

- related sources in each of the sectors for 2005 and the future year cases. A comparison of the 2005v4.2 platform with the HDGHG 2005 case is also

included.

1 This was an oversight in the 2005v4.2 platform corrected for this modeling effort.9 Table 3-1. Summary of VOC speciation profile approaches by sector across cases

Inventory Type and

Mode VOC speciation approach by fuels VOC

Profile

Codes 2005

V4.2 2005

HDGH

G 2030

Reference 2030

Control

Mobile

Exhaust

Diesel medium

- duty diesel exhaust, 2004

- vintage 4674 o nroad

nonroad

pre

- 2007 Heavy Duty profile 8774 o nroad

nonroad

pre

- 2007 Medium Duty 8775 onroad

except Class 6,7

& 8 start onroad

except Class 6,7

& 8 start weighted year 2030 heavy

- duty start (parking area) emissions without

HD controls 877RH onroad

class 8 start only
weighted year 2030 heavy

- duty start (parking area) emissions with HD

controls 877CH onroad

class 8 start only
weighted year 2030 medium

- duty

start (parking area) emissions

without HD controls 877RM onroad

class 6 &

7 start only weighted year 2030 medium

- duty

start (parking area) emissions with

HD controls 877CM onroad

class 6 &

7 start only

Mobile

Exhaust

Gasoline Tier 1 E0 and E10 combinations 8750

8751 o nroad

nonroad o nroad

nonroad

Tier 1 E0 or E10 by county 8750

8751 o nroad

nonroad o nroad

nonroad

Mobile Evaporative

Diesel diesel evap headspace profile, Circle K Diesel single

- sample 4547 onroad onroad o nroad onroad

E0 and E10 combinations 8753

8754 nonroad nonroad

E0 or E10 by county 8753

8754 nonroad nonroad

Mobile Evaporative

Gasoline E0 and E10 combinations 8753

8754 o nroad

nonroad o nroad

nonroad

E0 or E10 by county 8753

8754 o nroad

nonroad o nroad

nonroad

Mobile Refueling, PFCs, gas distribution E0 headspace 8762 All

listed E0 headspace and E10 headspace

combinations 8762

8763 All

listed

E0 headspace or E10 by county 8762

8763 All listed All listed

Appendix C lists ancillary input data file names used for HDGHG emissions modeling that are updated from

the v4.2 platform. All ancillary data files not unique to HDGHG emissions modeling are available on the

2005v4.2- based platform website previously referenced.10 

## 4 2030 Reference Case

The 20 30 Reference case is intended to represent the emissions associated with use of the most likely volume of ethanol in the absence of the greenhouse gas emissions standards for c ommercial medium-and h eavy -d uty
on-h ighway v ehicles and work trucks beginning with the 2014 model year (MY). The reference case assumes no improvements in fuel consumption or greenhouse gas emissions in MY 2014 through 2018. The reference and control cases do not include fuel and emissions changes from the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), or revised annual Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2); however the Light Duty Greenhouse Gas (LDGHG) impacts are included in both cases.

The 2030 Reference case uses many of the same growth and control assumptions as those for the Final

Cross -State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), because other than onroad mobile sources, both HDGHG and

CSAPR use the same 2005v4.2-based emissions inventories. There are some differences between the 2012 and 2014 base case projections in CSAPR and the 2030 reference case for HDGHG:

1) The year 2030 includes some additional controls that were promulgated after 2014 (e.g., fuel sulfur rules in a couple of states).

2) Growth factors for several sources are year

- specific; so while the methodology is the same as CSAPR, the future year emissions estimates differ (e.g., oil and gas in a couple states, onroad refueling, residential wood combustion).

3) Minor errors identified after CSAPR modeling was complete were fi xed (e.g, we include agricultural dust projections for the couple of states that provided point source farms).

The remainder of Section 4 is very similar to Section 4 in the CSAPR emissions modeling TSD

, available

from ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf , but with the updates

described above

.

The future base -case projection methodologies vary by sector. The 2030 reference case represent s predicted emissions in the absence of any further controls beyond those Federal and State measures already promulgated before emissions processing on the Transport Rule began in December, 2010. For EGU emissions (ptipm sector), t he emissions reflect state rules and federal consent decrees through December 1, 2010. For mobile sources (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, and on_moves_startpm sectors), all national measures for which data were available at the time of modeling have been inclu ded. The future base- case scenarios do reflect projected economic changes and fuel usage for EGU and mobile sectors. For nonEGU point (ptnonipm sector) and nonpoint stationary sources (nonpt, ag, and afdust sectors), local control programs that might hav e been necessary for areas to attain the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS annual standard, 2006 PM NAAQS (24 -hour) standard, and the 1997 ozone NAAQS are generally not included in the future basecase projections for most states. One exception are some NOx and VOC reductions associated with the New York, Virginia, and Connecticut State Implementation Plans (SIP), which were added as part of the

comments received from the CSAPR and a larger effort to start including more local control information on stationary non- EGU sour ces; this is described further in Section 4.2. T he following bullets summarize the projection methods used for sources in the various sectors, while additional details and data sources are given

in Table 4-1

.11 • IPM sector (ptipm): Unit

- specific e stimates from IPM, version 4.10.

• Non -IPM sector (ptnonipm): Projection factors and percent reductions r eflect CSAPR ( Transport Rule) comments and emission reductions due to control programs, plant closures, consent decrees

and settlements , and 1997 and 2001 ozone State Implementation Plans in NY, CT, and VA. We also

used projection approaches for point-source livestock , and aircraft and gasoline st age II emissions that are consistent with projections used for the sectors that contain the bulk of these emissions.

Terminal area forecast (TAF) data aggregated to the national level were used for aircraft to account for projected changes in landing/take off activity. Year

- specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and was discussed in Section 3

.

• Average fires sector (avefire): No growth or control.

• Agricultural sector (ag): Projection factors for livestock estimates based on expected changes in animal population from 2005 Department of Agriculture data; no growth or control for NH 3 emissions from fertilizer application.

• Area fugitive dust sector (afdust): Projection factors for dust categories related to livestock estimates

based o n expected changes in animal population; no growth or control for other categories in this

sector.

• Remaining Nonpoint sector (nonpt): Projection factors that implement Transport Rule Proposal comments and reflect emission reductions due to control programs. Residential wood combustion projections based on growth in lower- emitting stoves and a reduction in higher emitting stoves. PFC projection factors reflecting impact of the final Mobile Source Air Toxics ( MSAT 2) rule. Gasoline stage II projection factors based on National Mobile Inventory Model ( NMIM )- estimated VOC refueling estimates for future years. Oil and gas projection estimates are provided for the nonCalifornia Western Regional Air Partnership ( WRAP ) states as well as Oklahoma and Texas. Year

specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector and wa s discussed in Section 3.

• Nonroad mobile sector (nonroad): Other than for California, this sector uses data from a run of

NMIM that utilized the NR05d-Bond-final version of NONROAD (which is equivalent to

NONROAD2008a ), using future-year equipment population estimates and control programs to the

year 2030 and using national level inputs. F inal controls from the final locomotive

- marine and small spark ignition OTAQ rules are included . California

- specific data provided by the state of California, except NH 3 used 2030 NMIM. Year -specific speciation was applied to some portions of this sector

and is discussed in Section 4.3.5.

• Locomotive, and non- Class 3 commercial marine sector (alm _no_c3): Projection factors for Class 1

and Class 2 commercial marine and locomotives which reflect Transport Rule comments and activity growth and final locomotive- marine controls.

• Class 3 commercial marine vessel sector (seca_c3): Base -year 2005 emissions grown and controlled to 2030, incorporating Transport Rule comments and controls based on Emissions Control Area (ECA) and International Marine Organization (IMO) global NO X and SO 2 controls.

• Onroad mobile sector with no adjustment for daily temperature (on_noadj): MOVES2010a run (state -month ) for 20 30 with results disaggregated to the county level in proportion to NMIM 20 30

emissions estimates . The reference case does not include HDGHG or RFS2 impacts, but does include LDGHG impacts. Tempe rature impacts at the monthly average resolution. California

specific data provided by the state of California , except NH 3 which was obtained from

MOVES2010a . VOC speciation uses different future

- year values to take into account both the

increase in etha nol use , and the existence of Tier 2 vehicles that use a different speciation profile. Other than California, this sector includes all non-refueling onroad mobile emissions (exhaust, evaporative, brake wear and tire wear modes) except exhaust mode gasolin e PM and naphthalene emissions that are provided in the on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm sectors.12 • Onroad PM gasoline running mode sector (on_moves_startpm): Running mode MOVES2010a year 2030 future

- year state -month estimates for PM and naphthalene, apportioned to the county level using NMIM 2030 state -county ratios matched to vehicle and road types. The reference case does not include HDGHG or RFS2 impacts, but does include LDGHG impacts. Use future

- year temperature adjustment file for adjusting the 7 2°F emissions to ambient temperatures (for elemental and organic carbon) based on grid cell hourly temperature ( note that lower temperatures result in increased emissions).

• Onroad PM gasoline start mode sector (on_moves_startpm): Cold start MOVES2010a future

- year 2012 and 2014 state -month estimates for PM and naphthalene, apportioned to the county level using

NMIM 20 30 state -county ratios of local urban and rural roads by vehicle type. The reference case does not include HDGHG or RFS2 impacts, but does in clude LDGHG impacts. Use future- year temperature adjustment file for adjusting the 72 ° F emissions (for elemental and organic carbon) to ambient temperatures based on grid cell hourly temperatures (lower temperatures result in increased emissions).

• Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar): No growth or control.

• Other onroad sector (othon): No growth or control.

• Other nonroad/nonpoint (othar): No growth or control.

• Other p oint (othpt): No growth or control.

• Biogenic: 2005 emissions used for all future- ye ar scenarios.13 Table 4-1 summarizes the control strategies and growth assumptions by source type that were used to create

the 2030 base -case emissions from the 2005v4.2 base-case inventories. All Mexico, Canada, and offshore oil emissions are unchanged in all future cases from those in the 2005 base case. Note that mercury (Hg) is listed in the pollutants column; however, we did not include Hg in our v4.2- based HDG HG modeling.

Lists of the control, closures, projection packets (datasets) used to create the HDGHG 2030 future reference

case scenario inventories from the 2005 HDGHG base case are provided in Appendix D.

The remainder of this section is organized eith er by source sector or by specific emissions category within a source sector for which a distinct set of data were used or developed for the purpose of projections for the

HDGHG Rule. This organization allows consolidation of the discussion of the emissio ns categories that are contained in multiple sectors, because the data and approaches used across the sectors are consistent and do not need to be repeated. Sector names associated with the emissions categories are provided in parentheses.14 Table 4-1. Control strategies and growth assumptions for creating the 20 30 Reference case emissions

inventories from the 2005 base case

Control Strategies and/or growth assumptions (g rouped by a ffected p ollutants o r s tandard and a pproach u sed to

a pply to the i nventory) Pollutants

a ffected Approach/

R eference

Non

- EGU Point (pt nonipm sector) p rojection a pproaches

Boat Manufacturing MACT rules, national, VOC: national applied by SCC, MACT

Wood Building Products Surface Coating Generic MACT II: Spandex Production, Ethylene manufacture Large Appliances Miscellaneous Organic NESHAP (MON): Alkyd Resins, Chelating Agents, Explosives, Phthalate Plasticizers, Polyester Resins, Polymerized Vinylidene Chloride

Rein forced Plastics Asphalt Processing & Roofing

Iron & Steel Foundries Metal: Can, Coil

Metal Furniture

Miscellaneous Metal Parts & Products Municipal Solid Waste Landfills Paper and Other Web

Plastic Parts Plywood and Composite Wood Products

Carbon Black Pro duction Cyanide Chemical Manufacturing Friction Products Manufacturing Leather Finishing Operations Miscellaneous Coating Manufacturing Organic Liquids Distribution (Non

- Gasoline) Refractory Products Manufacturing

Sites Remediation VOC EPA, 2007 a

Consent decrees on c ompanies (based on information from the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance

– OECA) apportioned to plants owned/operated by the

c ompanies VOC, CO, NOx, PM, SO 2 1

DOJ Settlements: plant SCC controls for: Alcoa, TX

Premcor (formerly Motiva), DE All 2

Refinery Consent Decrees: plant/SCC controls NOx, PM, SO 2 3

Hazardous Waste Combustion PM 4 Municipal Waste Combustor Reductions

– plant level PM 5 Hospital/Medical/Infectious Waste Incinerator Regulations NO X , PM, SO 2 EPA, 2005 Large Municipal Waste Combustors

– growth applied to specific plants All (including Hg) 5 MACT rules, plant

- level, VOC: Auto Plants VOC 6 MACT rules, plant

- level, PM & SO 2 : Lime Manufacturing PM, SO 2 7 MACT rules, plant

- level, PM: Taconite Ore PM 8 NESHAP: Portland Cement ( 09/09/10)

– plant level based on Industrial Sector Integrated Solutions (ISIS) policy emissions in 2013. The ISIS results are from the

ISIS

- Cement model runs for the NESHAP and NSPS analysis of July 28, 2010 and

include closures

. Hg, NO X , SO2,
PM, HCl 13; EPA,

2010

Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to year 20 30 (some farms in the point inventory) NH3, PM 9

Gasoline Stage II growth and control from year 2005 to year 20 30 based on MOVES

2030 reference and 2005 state

- level ratios VOC 11

New York o zone SIP c ontrols VOC, NO X , HAP VOC 14

Additional p lant and u nit closures provided by state, regional, and the EPA agencies and additional consent decrees. Includes updates from C SAPR comments. All 1915 Emission r eductions resulting from controls put on specific boiler units (not due to MACT) after 2005, identified through analysis of the control data gathered from the Information Collection Request ( ICR ) from the Industrial/Commercial/Institutional

Boiler NESHAP. NO X , SO 2 , HCl

Section 4.2.6

Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE) NESHAP NO X , CO, PM

, SO 2 15

Replaced 2005 with 2008 emissions for Corn Products International, Cook C oun ty, Illinois, due to the shutdown of 3 boilers and addition of a new boiler (subject to Prevention of Significant Deterioration and Requirements) . Agency Identifier: 031012ABI (ILEPA) All

16

State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil

– effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New

York SO 2 17

Nonpoint ( nonpt sector) projection a pproaches

Municipal Waste Landfills: projection factor of 0.25 applied All EPA, 2007 a Livestock Emissions Growth from year 2002 to year 20 30 NH3, PM 9 Residential Wood Combustion Growth and Change

- outs from year 2005 to year 20 30 All 10 Gasoline Stage II growth and control from year 2005 to year 20 30 based on MOVES

2030 reference and 2005 state

- level ratios VOC 11

Portable Fuel Container Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule 2 ( MSAT2 ) inventory growth and control from year 2005 to year 2030 VOC 12

RICE NESHAP NO X , CO, VOC,

PM , SO 2 15

Use Phase II WRAP 2018 Oil and Gas VOC, SO 2 , NO X , CO Section 4 .2.7

Use 2008 Oklahoma and Texas Oil and Gas, and apply year 2021 projections for TX (last year available), and RICE NESHAP controls to Oklahoma emissions. VOC, SO 2 , NO X , CO, PM Section 4 .2.7

New York, Connecticut, and Virginia ozone SIP controls VOC 14, 18

State fuel sulfur content rules for fuel oil

– effective only in Maine, New Jersey, and New

York SO 2 17

APPROACHES /REFERENCES

- Stationary Sources :

1. Appendix B in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf

2. For Alcoa consent decree, used http:// cfpub.epa.gov/compliance/cases/index.cfm; for Moti va : used information sent by

State of Delaware

3. Used data provided by the EPA , OAQPS , Sector Policies and Programs Division (SPPD).

4. Obtained from Anne Pope , the US EPA

- H azardous W aste I ncinerators criteria and hazardous air pollutant controls

carried over from 2002 Platform, v3

. 1.

5. Used data provide d by the EPA, OAQPS SPPD expert

. 6. Percent reductions and plants to receive reductions based on recommendations by rule lead engineer, and are consisten t with the reference: EPA, 2007a

7. Percent reductions recommended are determined from the existing plant estimated baselines and estimated reductions as shown in the Federal Register Notice for the rule. SO 2 percent reduction are computed by 6, 147/30,783 = 20 % and

PM 10 and PM 2.5 reductions are computed by 3, 786/13

, 588 = 28%

8. Same approach as used in the 2006 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) , which estimate d reductions of “ PM emissions by 10,538 tpy, a reduction of about 62%. ” Used same list of plants as were identified based on tonnage and SCC from

CAIR : http://www.envinfo.com/caain/June04updates/tiop_fr2.pdf

9. Except for dairy cows and turkeys (no growth), based o n animal population growth estimates from the US Department of Agriculture ( US DA ) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute. See Section 3.2.1.

10. Growth and Decline in woodstove types based on industry trade group data, See S ection

. 11. VOC emission ratios of year 20 16 (linear interpolation between 2015 and 2020)

- spec ific from year 2005 from the National Mobile Inventory Model (NMIM ) results for onroad refueling including activity growth from VMT, Stage II control programs at gasoline stations, and phase in of newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls.

12. VOC and benzene emissions for year 20 16 (linear interpolation between 2015 and 2020) from year 2002 from MSAT216 rule (EPA, 2007b )

13. Data files for the cement sector provided by Elineth Torres, the EPA

- SPPD, from the analysis done for the Cement

NES H AP: The ISIS documentation and analysis for the cement NESHAP/NSPS is in the docket of that rulemaking

docket # EPA

- HQ

- OAR

- 2002

- 005. The Cement NESHAP is in the Federal Register: September 9, 2010 (Volume 75,

Number 174

, Page 5496 9- 55066

14. New York NO X and VOC reducti ons obtained from Appendix J in NY Department of Environmental Conservation Implementation Plan for Ozone (February 2008): http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf

. See

Section 3.2.6.

15. Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf

16. The 2008 data used cam e from Illinois’ submittal of 2008 emissions to the NEI.

17. Based on available, enforceable state sulfur rules as of November, 2010: http://www.ilta.org/Legislat iveandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf

, http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billpdfs/SP062701.pdf

, http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html

, http://green.bl ogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/new

- york

- mandates

- cleaner

- heating

- oil/

18. VOC reductions in Connecticut and Virginia obtained from CSAPR comments.
19. Appendix D of Cross

- State Air Pollution Rule: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf

Onroad mobile and n onroad m obile c ontrols (list includes al l key mobile control strategies but is not exhaustive)

National Onroad Rules:

Tier 2 Rule : Signature date February, 2000 2007 Onroad Heavy

- Duty Rule : February, 2009 Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule (MSAT2) : February, 2007

Renewable Fuel Standard : March, 2010 all 1

Local Onroad Programs:

National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV): March, 1998 Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) LEV Program : January,1995 VOC 2

National Nonroad Controls:

Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule

– Tier 4 : June, 2004 Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large

- Spark Ignition Engines and Recreational Engines (Marine and Land Based): “Pentathalon Rule” : November, 2002

Clean Bus USA Program: October, 2007

Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine Com pression

- Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters per Cylinder: October, 2008 all 3,4,5

Aircraft: Itinerant (ITN) operations at airports to year 2030 all 6

Locomotives: Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail

Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule

– Tier 4 : June 2004

Locomotive Em iss ions Final Rulemaking, December 17, 1997 Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotives and Marine: May 2008 all EPA, 2009; 3; 4; 5

Commercial Marine: Category 3 marine diesel engines Clean Air Act and International Maritime Organization standards (April, 30, 2010)

– also includes C SAPR comments.
EIA fuel consumption projections for diesel

- fueled vessels OTAQ ECA C3 Base 203 0 inventory for residual

- fueled vessels

Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule

– Tier 4 Emissions Standards for Commercial Marine Diesel Engines, December 29, 1999 Tier 1 Marine Diesel Engines, February 28, 2003 all 7, 3; EPA,

2009

APPROACHES/REFERENCES

– Mobile Sources

1. http://epa.gov/otaq/hwy.htm

2. Only for states submitting these inputs: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/lev

- nlev.htm

3. http://www.epa.gov/nonroad

- diesel/2004fr.htm

4. http://www.epa.gov/cleanschoolbus/17 5. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/marinesi.htm

6. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System, January 2010 : http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp

7. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/oceanvessels.htm



### 4.1 **Stationary source projections: EGU sector (ptipm)** 

The future- year data for the ptipm sector used in the air quality modeling were created using version 4.10 (v4.10) of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) ( http://www.epa.gov/airmarkt/progsregs/epaipm/index.html ). The IPM is a multiregional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S.

electric power sector. Version 4.10 reflects state rules and consent decrees through December 1, 2010 and incorporates information on existing controls collected through the Information Collection Request ( ICR ),

and information from comments received on the IPM- related Notice of Data Availa bility (NODA) published on September 1, 2010. IPM v4.10 Final included the addition of over 20 GW of existing Activated Carbon Injection ( ACI ) reported to the EPA via the ICR

. Units with SO 2 or NO X advanced controls (e.g., scrubber, SCR) that were not re quired to run for compliance with Title IV, New Source Review (NSR), state settlements, or state

- specific rules were modeled by IPM to either operate those controls or not based on economic efficiency parameters.

U pdates to IPM 4.10 (with respect to the version released in the IPM NODA version) include adjustments toassumptions regarding the performance of acid gas control technologies, new costs imposed on fuelswitching (e.g., bituminous to sub- bituminous), correction of lignite availability to some pla nts, incorporation of additional planned retirements, a more inclusive implementation of the scrubber upgrade option, and the availability of a scrubber retrofit to waste-coal fired fluidized bed combustion units without an existing scrubber. Further details on the future- year EGU emissions inventory used for this rule can be

found in the incremental documentation of the IPM v.4.10 platform , available a t http://www.epa.gov/airm arkets/progsregs/epa -ipm/BaseCasev410.html

. Note that th is year 2030 IPM run includes the version 4.10 NODA CSAPR Proposal (not Final) emissions and does not include the Mercury

and Air Toxics (MATS) Rule impacts (proposal or final), which was proposed on March 16, 2011. In addition, the Boiler MACT was not represented because the rule was not final at the time the HDGHG modeling was performed.

Directly emitted PM emissions (i.e., PM 2.5 and PM 10 ) from the EGU sector are computed via a pos t processing routine which applies emission factors to the IPM-estimated fuel throughput based on fuel, configuration and controls to compute the filterable and condensable components of PM. This methodology

is documented in the IPM CSAPR TSD.



### 4.2 **Stationary source**  **projections: non**

**- EGU sectors (ptnonipm, nonpt, ag,**  **afdust)**

To project U.S. stationary sources other than the ptipm sector, we applied growth factors and/or controls to certain categories within the ptnonipm, nonpt, ag and afdust platform sectors. This subsection provides details on the data and projection methods used for these sectors. In estimating future

- year emissions, we

assumed that emissions growth does not track with economic growth for many stationary non- IPM sources. This “no- growth” as sumption is based on an examination of historical emissions and economic data

. More

details on the rationale for this approach can be found in Appendix D of the Regulatory Impact Assessment for the PM NAAQS rule (EPA, 2006 ).

The starting point was the emission projections done for the 2005v4.2 platform for the CSAPR , which incorporated responses to public comments on the modeling inventories. The 2012 and 2014 projection18 factors developed for the CSAPR (see http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#final ) were updated to reflect year 2030 projections.

Year

- specific projection factors for year 20 30 were used for creating the 20 30 reference case unless noted otherwise. Growth factors (and control factors) are provided in the following sections where feasible. However, some sectors used growth or control factors that varied geographically and their contents could not be provided in the following sections (e.g., gasoline distribution varies by state and pollutant and has

hundreds of records).



### 4.2.1 Livestock emissions growth (ag, afdust)

Growth in ammonia (NH 3 ) and dust (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) emissions from livestock in the ag and afdust and ptnonipm sectors was based on projections of growth in animal population. Table 4-2 provides the growth

factors from the 2005 base

- case emissions to 2030 for ani mal categories applied to the ag, afdust, and ptnonipm sectors for livestock- related SCCs. For example, year 20 30 beef emissions are 3.85% larger than

the 2005 base

- case emissions. Except for dairy cows and turkey production, the animal projection factors are derived from national-level animal population projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy and Research Institute (FAPRI). For dairy cows and turkeys, we assumed that there would be no growth in emissions. This assumption was based on an analysis of historical trends in the number of such animals compared to production rates. Although productions rates

have increas ed, the number of animals has declined. Thus, we do not believe that production forecasts provide representative estimates of the future number of cows and turkeys; therefore, we did not use these forecasts for estimating future

- year emissions from these animals. In particular, the dairy cow population is projected to decrease in the future as it has for the past few decades; however, milk production will be increasing over the same period. Note that the ammonia emissions from dairies are not directly re lated to animal population but also nitrogen excretion. With the cow numbers going down and the production going up we suspect the excretion value will be changing, but we assumed no change because we did not have a quantitative estimate.

The inventory for livestock emissions used 2002 emissions values therefore, our projection method projected

fr om 2002 rather than from 2005.

Appendix E in the 2002v3 platform documentation provides the animal population data and regression curves used to derive the grow th factors: http://www.epa.gov/scram001/reports/Emissions%20TSD%20Vol2_Appendices_01-15-08.pdf . Appendix F in the same document provides the cross references of livestock sources in the ag, afdust and ptnonipm sectors to the animal categories in Table 4-2

.

Table 4-2. Growth factors from year 2005 to 2030 for Animal Operations

Animal Category Projection

Factor Dairy Cow 1.0000

Beef 1.0385

Pork 1.1666

Broilers 1.6426 Turkeys 1.0000 Layers 1.4491 Poultry Average 1.4991 Overall Average 1.174519 

### 4.2.2 Residential wood combustion growth (nonpt)

We projected residential wood combustion emissions based on the expected increase in the number of lowemitting wood stoves and the corresponding decrease in other types of wood stoves. As newer, cleaner woodstoves replace older, higher-polluting wood stoves, there will be an overall reduction of the emissions from these sources. The approach cited here was developed as part of a modeling exercise to estimate the expected benefits of the woodstoves change-out program ( http://www.epa.gov/burnwise ). Details of this approach can be found in Section 2.3.3 of the PM NAAQS Regulatory Impact Analysis (EPA, 2006).

The spe cific assumptions we made were:

 Fireplaces, source category code ( SCC )=2104008001: increase 1%/y ea r

 Old woodstoves, SCC=2104008002, 2104008010, or 2104008051: decrease 2%/y ea r

 New woodstoves, SCC=2104008003, 2104008004, 2104008030, 2104008050, 2104008052 or 2104008053: increase 2%/y ea r

For the general woodstoves and fireplaces category (SCC 2104008000) we computed a weighted average distribution based on 19.4% fireplaces, 71.6% old woodstoves, 9.1% new woodstoves using 2002v3

Platform missions for PM 2.5 . These fractions are based on the fraction of emissions from these processes in the states that did not have the “general woodstoves and fireplaces” SCC in the 2002v3 NEI. This approach results in an overall decrease of 1.056% per year for this source category. Table 4-3 presents the projection factors used to project the 2005 base case (2002 emissions) for residential wood combustion.

Table 4-3. Projection Factors for growing year 2005 Residential Wood Combustion Sources

SCC SCC Description Projection

Factor

2104008000 Total: Woodstoves and Fireplaces 0. 7043

2104008001 Fireplaces: General 1.28 2104008070 Outdoor Wood Burning Equipment

2104008002 Fireplaces: Insert; non

- EPA certified

0.44 2104008010 Woodstoves: General

2104008051 Non

- catalytic Woodstoves: Non

- EPA certified

2104008003 Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; non

- catalytic

1.56 2104008004 Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified; catalytic

2104008030 Catalytic Woodstoves: General

2104008050 Non

- catalytic Woodstoves: EPA certified

2104008052 Non

- catalytic Woodstoves: Low Emitting

2104008053 Non

- catalytic Woodstoves: Pellet Fired



### 4.2.3 Gasoline Stage II growth and control (nonpt, ptnonipm)

Emissions from Stage II gasoline operations in the 2005 base case are contained in both nonpt and ptnonipm sectors. The only SCC in the nonpt inventory used for gasoline Stage II emissions is 2501060100 (Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage; Gasoline Service Stations; Stage II: Total). The following SIC and SCC codes are associated with gasoline Stage II emissions in the ptnonipm sector:

 SIC 5541 (Automotive Dealers & Service Stations, Gasoline Service Stations , Gasoline service stations)

 SCC 40600401 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Vapor Loss w/o Controls)20  SCC 40600402 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Liquid Spill Loss w/o Controls)

 SCC 40600403 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Vapor Loss w/o Con trols)

 SCC 40600499 (Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation;Transportation and Marketing of Petroleum Products;Filling Vehicle Gas Tanks - Stage II;Not Classified

We used a consistent approach across nonpt and ptnonipm to project these gasoline stage II emissions. The approach involved computing state

- level VOC

- specific projection factors from the state

- level

MOVES2010a- based results for onroad refueling, using ratios of future– year 2030 refueling emissions to 2005 base-case emissions. The approach accounts for three elements of refueling growth and control: (1) activity growth (due to VMT growth as input into MOVES2010a), (2) emissions reductions from Stage II control programs at gasoline stations, and (3) emissions reductions resulting from the phase-in over time of newer vehicles with onboard Stage II vehicle controls. We assumed that all areas with Stage II controls in 2005 continue to have Stage II controls in 2030.

We computed VOC, benzene and naphthalene projection factors at a county-specific, annual resolution as shown below; note that naphthalene, while provided by MOVES2010a, is not used in the HDGHG Rule:

PF _VOC [state , future year] = V OC_RFL [ state , future year] /VOC_RFL [ state , 2005]
,

PF _BENZENE [ state , future year] = B ENZENE_RFL [ state , future year] / BENZENE _RFL [ state , 2005] , and

PF _NAPHTHALENE [ state , future year] = PF _VOC [state , future year]

where VOC_RFL is the VOC refueling emissions for onroad sources from MOVES2010a, and BENZENE_RFL is the BENZENE refue ling emissions for onroad sources from MOVES2010a

We applied these projection factors to both nonpt and ptnonipm sector gasoline stage II sources.

Chemical speciation uses certain VOC HAPs for some sources, specifically, benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehy de, and methanol (BAFM). The VOC HAPs are used for sources that have consistent VOC and VOC HAPs using various criteria as described in the Section Error! Reference source not found. in the CSAPR TSD ( ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf ) , and these sources are called “integrated” sources. The nonpoint gasoline stage II emissions are an integrated source,

and so the VOC HAPs are also projected based on ratios of future

- year and base -year VOC. The only two VOC HAPs emitted from refueling are benzene and naphthalene, and both of these w ere projected consistently with VOC. However, naphthalene was not used in the chemical speciation (it is not B,A,F or M pollutant) and was therefore not used for this effort. Therefore, only b enzene was used as part of the speciation for the nonpt sector gasoline stage II sources. The entire ptnonipm inventory is considered “no

integrate” because VOC and VOC HAP emission estimates were not found to be of the same (consistent) data source. Therefore ptnonipm gasoline stage II sources did not use the projected benzene as part of the speciation, but rather used VOC speciation to estimate benzene.



### 4.2.4 Portable fuel container growth and control (nonpt)

We obtained future-year VOC emissions from Portable Fuel Containers (PFCs) from inventories developed

and modeled for the EPA ’s MSAT 2 rule (EPA, 2007b). The 10 PFC SCCs are summarized below ( note that

the full SCC descriptions for these SCCs include “Storage and Transport; Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage” as the beginning of the description).

• 2501011011 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Permeation21 • 2501011012 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Evaporation

• 2501011013 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Spillage During Transport

• 2501011014 Residenti al Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Vapor Displacement

• 2501011015 Residential Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Spillage

• 2501012011 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Permeation

• 2501012012 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Evaporation

• 2501012013 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Spillage During Transport

• 2501012014 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Vapor Displacement

• 2501012015 Commercial Portable Fuel Containers: Refilling at the Pump: Spillage

Additional information on the PFC inventories is available in Section 2.2.3 of the documentation for the 2002 Platform ( http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/index.html#2002 ).

The future- year emissions reflect projected increases in fuel consumption, state programs to reduce PFC emissions, standards promulgated in the MSAT2 rule, and impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on gasoline volatility. Future

- year emission s for PFCs were available for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2030. Benzene was used in VOC speciation for the air quality model through the modification of VOC speciation profiles calculations (no other BAFM HAPs are emitted from PFCs).



### 4.2.5 Aircraft growth (ptnonipm)

These 2005 point-source emissions are projected to future years by applying activity growth using data on itinerant (ITN) operations at airports. The ITN operations are defined as aircraft take

- offs whereby the aircraft leaves the airport vicinity and la nds at another airport, or aircraft landings whereby the aircraft has arrived from outside the airport vicinity. We used projected ITN information available from the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) System: http://www.apo.data.faa.gov/main/taf.asp (publication date January 2010). This information is available for approximately 3 ,300 individual airports, for all years up to 2030. We aggregated and applied this

infor mation at the national level by summing the airport -specific (U.S. airports only) ITN operations to national totals by year and by aircraft operation, for each of the four available operation types : commercial, general, air taxi and military. We computed growth factors for each operation type by dividing future- year ITN by 2005-year ITN. We assigned factors to inventory SCCs based on the operation type.

The methods that the FAA used for developing the ITN data in the TAF are documented in: http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2009- 2025/media/2009%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf

Table 4-4 provides the national growth factors for aircraft; all factors are applied to year 2005 emissions. For example, year 20 30 commercial aircraft emissions are 50.59% higher than year 2005 emissions.

Table 4-4. Factors used to project 2005 base- case aircraft emissions to year 2030

SCC SCC Description Projection Factor

2275001000 Military aircraft 1.0275

2275020000 Commercial aircraft 1.5059

2275050000 General aviation 0.9916

2275060000 Air taxi 1.0259

27501015 Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP -5 1.0275

27502001 Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Commercial;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas 1.5059

27502011 Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO 1.505922 SCC SCC Description Projection Factor
Exhaust;Commercial;Jet Engine: Jet A

27505001 Internal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Civil;Piston Engine: Aviation Gas 0.9916

27505011 In ternal Combustion Engines;Fixed Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Civil;Jet Engine: Jet A 0.9916

27601014 Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP

- 4 1.0275

27601015 Internal Combustion Engines;Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust;Military;Jet Engine: JP

- 5 1.0275

We did not apply growth factors to any point sources with SCC 27602011 (Internal Combustion Engines; Rotary Wing Aircraft L & TO Exhaust; Commercial; Jet Engine: Jet A) because the facility names associated with these point sources appeared to represent industrial facilities rather than airports. This SCC is only in one county, Santa Barbara, California (State/County FIPS 06083).

None of our aircraft emission projections account for any control pro grams. We considered the NO X standard adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) in February 2004, which is expected to reduce NO X by approximately 2%

in 2015 and 3% in 2020. Ho wever, this rule, signed July 2011 (see http://www.epa.gov/otaq/aviation.htm ),

was not adopted as an EPA (or U.S.) rule prior to HDGHG modeling ; therefore, the effects of this rule were

not included in the future

- year emissions projections.



### 4.2.6 Stationary source control programs, consent decrees & settlements, and plant closures (ptnonipm, nonpt)

We applied emissions reduction factors to the 2005 emissions for particular sources in the ptnonipm and

nonpt sector s to reflect the impact of stationary -source control programs including consent decrees, settlements, and plant closures. Some of the controls described in this section were obtained from comments

on the CSAPR proposal. Here we describe the contents of the controls and closures for the 2030 reference case. Detailed summaries of the impacts of the control programs are provided in Appendix D of the CSAPR

TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf

.

Controls from the NO X SIP call were assumed to have been implemented by 2005 and captured in the 2005 base case (2005v2 point inventory). This assumption was confirmed by review of the 2005 NEI that showed reductions from Large Boiler/Turbines and Large Internal Combustion Engines in the Northeast states covered by the NOx SIP call. The future -year base controls consist of the following:

• We did not include MACT rules where compliance dates were prior to 2005, because we assumed these were already reflected in the 2005 inventory. The EPA OAQPS Sector Policies and Programs Division (SPPD) provided all controls information related to the MACT rules, and this information is as consistent as possible with the preamble emissions reduction percentages for these rules.

• Various emissions reductions from the CSAPR comments, including but not limited to: fuel switching at units, shutdowns, future- year emission limits, ozone SIP VOC controls for some sources in Virginia and Connecticut, and state and local control programs.

• Evolutionary information gathering of plant closures (i.e., emissions were zeroed out for future years)

were also included where information indicate d that the plant was actually closed after the 2005 base year and prior to CSAPR and HDGHG modeling that began in the fall of 2010. We also applied unit and plant closures received from the CSAPR comments. However, plants projected to close in the

future (post-2010) were not removed in the future years because these projections can be inaccurate23 due to economic improvements. We also applied cement kiln (unit) and cement plant closures

discussed later in Section 4.2.6.1. More detailed information on the overall state

- level impacts of all control programs and projection datasets, including units and plants closed in the 2012 and 2014

base -case ptnonipm inventories are provided in Appendix D of the CSAPR TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_appendices_28jun2011.pdf . The magnitude of all unit and plant closures on the non-EGU point (ptnonipm) sector 2005 base- case emissio ns is shown in Table 4-5 below.

Table 4-5. Summary of Non-EGU Emission Reductions Applied to the 2005 Inventory due to Unit and

Plant Closures

CO NH 3 NO X PM 10 PM 2.5 SO 2 VOC

Reductions 125,162 636 109,237 21,143 12,600 190,734 26,750

• In addition to plant closures, we included the effects of the Department of Justice Settlements and

Consent Decrees on the non- EGU ( ptnonipm) sector emissions. We also included estimated impacts of HAP standards per Section 112, 129 of the Clean Air Act on the non- EGU ( ptnonipm) and nonpoint (nonpt) sector emissions, based on expected CAP co-benefits to sources in these sectors.

• Numerous controls have compliance dates beyond 2008; these include refinery and the Office of Compliance and Enforcement (OECA) consent decrees, Department of Justice (DOJ) settlements, as

well as most national VOC MACT controls. Additional OECA consent d ecree information is provided in Appendix B of the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf

. The detailed data

used are available at the website listed in Section 1.

• Refinery consent decrees controls at the facility and SCC level (collected through internal coordination on refineries by the EPA).

• Fuel sulfur fuel limits were enforceable for Maine , New Jer sey and New York. These fuel limits

were incremental and not applicable until after 2012.

• Criteria air pollutant (cap) reductions a cobenefit to RICE NESHAP controls , including SO 2 RICE

cobenefit controls.

• We applied New York State Implementation Plan ava ilable controls for the 1997 8-hour Ozone standard for non-EGU point and nonpoint NO X and VOC sources based on NY State Department of Environmental Conservation February 2008 guidance. These reductions are found in Appendix J in : http://www.dec.ny.gov/docs/air_pdf/NYMASIP7final.pdf . See Section 3.2.6 in the CSAPR TSD: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4_2/transportrulefinal_eitsd_28jun2011.pdf

.

Most of the control programs were applied as replacement controls, which means that any existing percent reductions (“baseline control efficiency”) reported in the NEI were removed prior to the addition of the percent reductions due to these control programs. Exceptions to replacement controls are “additional” controls, which ensure that the controlled emissions match desired reductions regardless of the baseline

control efficiencies in the NEI. We use d the “additional controls” approach for many permit limits, settlements and consent decrees where specific plant and multiple-plant- level reductions/targets were desired and at municipal waste landfills where VOC was reduced 75% via a MACT control using projection factors

of 0.25.24 4.2.6.1 R eductions from the Portland Cement NESHAP

As indicated in Table 4 -1, the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model (EPA, 2010) was used to project the cement industry component of the ptnonipm emissions modeling sector to 2013. There were no future year estimates for year 2030, so 2013 estimates were used for the 2030 Reference case . This approach provided reductions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants, including mercury. The ISIS cement emissions

were develo ped in support for the Portland Cement NESHAPs and the NSPS for the Portland cement manufacturing industry.

The ISIS model produced a Portland Cement NESHAP policy case of multi-pollutant emissions for individual cement kilns (emission inventory units) that were relevant for years 2013 through 2017. These

ISIS -based emissions included information on new cement kilns, facility and unit-level closures, and updated policy case emissions at existing cement kilns. The units that opened or closed before 2010 were included in the projections as were t he ISIS -based policy case predictions of emissions reductions and activity growth.

The ISIS model results for the future show a continuation of the recent trend in the cement sector of the replacement of lower capa city, inefficient wet and long dry kilns with bigger and more efficient preheater and precalciner kilns. Multiple regulatory requirements such as the NESHAP and NSPS currently apply to the cement industry to reduce CAP and HAP emissions. Additionally, st ate and local regulatory requirements might apply to individual cement facilities depending on their locations relative to ozone and

PM 2.5 nonattainment areas. The ISIS model provides the emission reduction strategy that balances: 1) optimal (least cost) industry operation, 2) cost-effective controls to meet the demand for cement, and 3) emission reduction requirements over the time period of interest. Table 4-6 shows the magnitude of the

ISIS -based cement industry reductions in the future- year emissions that represent 201 3 (and 2030 for HDGHG) , and the impact that these reductions have on total stationary non-EGU point source (ptnonipm)

emissions.

Table 4-6. Future- year ISIS -based cement industry annual reductions (tons/yr) for the non-EGU (ptnonipm) sector

Pollutant Cement Industry

emissions in 2005 Decrease in cement industry emissions

in 20 30 vs 2005 % decrease in ptnonipm from

cement reduction

NO X 193,000 56,740 2.4%

PM 2.5 14,400 7,840 1.8%

SO 2 128,400 106,000 5.0%

VOC 6,900 5,570 0.4%

HCl 2,900 2,220 4.5%

4.2.6.2 Boiler reductions not associated with the MACT rule

The Boiler MACT ICR collected data on existing controls. We used an early version of a data base developed for that rulemaking entitled “survey_database_2008_results2.mdb ” ( EPA

- HQ

- OAR -2002-0058- 0788) which is posted under the Technical Information for the Boiler MACT major source rule ( http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/boiler/boilerpg.html ). We extracted all controls that were installed after 2005, determined a percent reduction, and verified with source owners that these controls were actively in use. In many situations we learned that the controls were on site but were not in use. A summary of the plant-unit specific reductions that were verified to be actively in use are summarized in Table 4 -7.25 Table 4-7. State -level non- MACT Boiler Reductions from ICR Data Gathering

State Pollutant Pre

- controlled

Emissions (tons) Controlled

Emissions (tons) Reductions (tons) Percent

Reduction

%
Michigan NO X 907 544 363 40

North Carolina SO 2 652 65 587 90
Virginia SO 2 3379 338 3041 90
Washington SO 2 639 383 256 40

North Carolina HC l 31 3 28 90

4.2.6.3 RICE NESHAP

There are three rulemakings for National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines (RICE). These rules reduce HAPs from existing and new RICE sources. In order to meet the standards, existing sources with certain types of engines will need to install controls. In addition to reducing HAPs, these controls also reduce CAPs, specifically, CO, NO X , VOC, PM,

and SO 2 . In 2014 and beyond, compliance dates have passed for all three rules; thus all three rules are

included in the 2030 HDGHG emissions projection.

The rules can be found at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/rice/ricepg.html and are listed below:

• National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Eng ines; Final Rule (69 FR 33473) published 06/15/04

• National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (FR 9648 ) published 03/03/10

• National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for Reciprocating Internal Combustion Engines; Final Rule (75 FR 51570) published 08/20/2010

The difference among these three rul es is that they focus on different types of engines, different facility types (major for HAPs, versus area for HAPs) and different engine sizes based on horsepower (HP). In addition, they have different compliance dates. We project CAPs from the 2005 NEI RICE sources, based on the requirements of the rule for existing sources only because the inventory includes only existing sources and the current projection approach does not estimate emissions from new sources.

A complete discussion on the methodology to estimate RICE controls is provided in Appendix F in the Proposed MATS Rule TSD: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf . Im pacts of the RICE controls on stationary non-EGU emissions (nonpt and ptnonipm sectors), excluding WRAP, Texas, and Oklahoma oil and gas emissions (see Section 4.2.7) are provided in Table 4-8

.

Table 4-8. National Impact of RICE Controls on 2030 Non -EGU Projections

CO NO X PM 10 PM 2.5 SO 2 VOC

Reductions 116,434 111,749 1,595 1,368 21,957 14,669

4.2.6.4 Fuel sulfur rules

Fuel sulfur rules that were signed (enforceable) at the time of the HDGHG emissions processing are limited

to Maine , New Jersey and New York. Several other states have fuel sulfur rules that were in development26 but not finalized prior to CSAPR and HDGHG Rule emissions processing: http://www.ilta.org/LegislativeandRegulatory/MVNRLM/NEUSASulfur%20Rules_09.2010.pdf

.

The fuel sulfur content for all home heating oil SCCs in 2005 is assumed to by 3000 part per million (ppm). Effective July 1, 2012, New York requires all heating oil sold in New York to contain no more than 15ppm of sulfur, thus reducing SO 2 emissions by 99.5% for post-2012 (2030) projections. These New York sulfur

content reductions are further discussed here: http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkassel/governor_paterson_signs_new_la.html

.

The New Jersey ye ar 2017 standard of 15ppm (assuming 500ppm baseline for Kersone) sulfur content yields

a 96.25% SO 2 emissions reduction for kersone (fuel #1). The New Jersey sulfur content reductions are

discussed here: http://njtoday.net/2010/09/01/nj-adopts- rule

- limiting -sulfur-content- in

- fuel

- oil/

.

The Maine fuel sulfur rule effective January 1, 2014 reduces sulfur to 15ppm, resulting in a 99.5 % reduction from 3000 ppm. T hese Maine sulfur content reductions are discussed here: http://www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billpdfs/SP062701.pdf

.

The impact of these fuel s ulfur content reductions on SO2 is shown in Table 4-9

.

Table 4-9. Impact of Fuel Sulfur Controls on 2014 Non-EGU Projections

State SO 2 Reductions

Maine 18,470 New Jersey 998

New York 54,431

Total 73,898



### 4.2.7 Oil and gas projections in TX, OK, and non-California WRAP states (nonpt)

For the 2005v4.2 platform, we incorporated updated 2005 oil and gas emissions from Texas and Oklahoma. For Texas oil and gas production, we used the last available future year, year 2021, estimates from the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and used them as described in: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts /reports/ei/5820783985FY0901-

20090715- ergi -Drilling_Rig_EI.pdf

.

We also received 2008 data for Oklahoma that we used as the best available data to represent 20 30

. We

utilize d the latest available future year, year 2018, Phase II WRAP oil and gas emissions data for the nonCalifornia Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) states to represent year 2030. RICE NESHAP reductions, which are effective by year 2014, were applied to the year 2008 Oklahoma oil and gas inventory but not applied to the 2021 TCEQ oil and gas estimates or 2018 WRAP Phase II oil and gas inventory.

For Oklahoma, we applied CO, NO X , SO 2 and VOC emissions reductions from the RICE N ESHAP, which we assumed has some applicability to this industry (see Appendix F in the Proposed Toxics Rule TSD: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/emch/toxics/proposed_toxics_rule_appendices.pdf ).

Table 4-10 shows the 2005 and 2030 NOX and SO2 emissions including RICE reductions for Oklahoma.

Table 4-10. Oil and Gas NO X and SO 2 Emissions for 2005 and 2030 including additional reductions due to

the RICE NESHAP

NOX PM2.5 SO2 VOC

2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 203027 Alaska 836 453 62 1 68 12

Arizona 13 15 37 49

Colorado 32,188 33,517 350 11 35,500 43,639

Montana 10,617 13,880 640 6 9,187 14,110

Nevada 71 63 1 0 105 163

New Mexico 61,674 74,648 369 12 215,636 267,846

North Dakota 6,040 20,869 688 4 8,988 17,968

Oklahoma 39,668 42,402 1,918 2,231 1,014 2 155,908 163,598 Oregon 61 44 19 14

South Dakota 566 557 43 0 370 562

Texas 42,854 26,061 2,945 435 5,977 33 4,337 1,504

Utah 6,896 6,297 149 1 43,403 81,890 Wyoming 36,172 34,142 541 3 166,939 304,748

Total 237,656 252,948 4,862 2,666 9,834 73 640,498 896,104



### 4.3 **Mobile source projections** 

The 2030 HDGHG Reference case inventories are identical to 2030 HDGHG Control case inventories except

for the MOVES2010a-based (onroad) emissions (and some gasoline distribution emissions in the ptnonipm and nonpt sectors). The 2030 Control case inventories are discussed in Section 5.

Mobile source monthly inventories of onroad and nonroad mobile emissions were created for 20 30 using a combination of the NMIM and MOVES2010a models. Future-year emissions reflect onroad mobile control programs including the Light

- Duty Vehicle Tier 2 Rule, the Onroad Heavy -Duty Rule, and the Mobile Source Air Toxics (MSAT2) final rule. Nonroad mobile emissions reductions for these years include regulations affecting locomotives, various nonroad engines including diesel engines and various marine engine types, fuel sulfur content, and evaporative emissions

.

Onroad mobile sources are comprised of several components and are discussed in the next subsection ( 4.3.1 ). Nonroad mobile emission projections are discussed in subsection 4.3.1.1 . Locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine vessel (C1/C2 CMV) projections are discussed in subsection 4.3.2 , and Class 3 (C3) CMV projected emissions are discussed in subsection 4.3.3

.



### 4.3.1 Onroad mobile (on_noadj, on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm)

The onroad emissions were primarily based on the 2010 version of the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES2010a ) – the same version that was used for 2005 HDGHG . The same MOVES

- based PM 2.5 temperature adjustment factors were applied as were used in 2005 for running mode emissions; however, cold start emissions used year- specific temperature ad justment factors. The use of the same temperature adjustments nationwide for gasoline PM is not a limitation, since the temperature adjustments in MOVES for gasoline PM do not depend on county- specific inputs.28 California onroad (on_noadj)

California onroad inventory: California year 2030 complete CAP/HAP onroad inventories are monthly onroad emissions and are based on March 2007 California Air Resources Board (CARB) data (Martin Johnson: mjohnson@arb.ca.gov). Like year 2005 emissions, future- year Calif ornia NH 3 emissions are from

MOVES runs for California, disaggregated to the county level using NMIM. We estimated HAP emissions by applying HAP

- to

- CAP ratios computed from Calif ornia 2005 NEI submittal provided by EPA in 12/2007.

This was done because t he C ARB submittal from March 2007 did not include estimates for HAPs. We retained only those HAPs that were also estimated by NMIM for nonroad mobile sources; all other HAPs

were dropped.

Onroad mobile sector with no adjustment for daily temperature (on_noadj)

As discussed in Section 2, the MOVES2010a model was used for all vehicles, road types, and pollutants. Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) was projected using growth rates from the Department of Energy’s

AEO20 11. We used MOVES2010a to create emissions b y state, SCC, pollutant, emissions mode and month. We then allocated these emissions to counties using ratios based on 2030 NMIM county

- level data by state, SCC, pollutant, and emissions mode. While the EPA intends to replace this approach with a county- specific implementation of MOVES for use in future regulatory actions, this approach was the best approach

available at the time of this modeling.

Onroad PM gasoline running and cold start mode sectors (on_moves_startpm and on_moves_runpm)

MOVES -based cold start and running mode emissions consist of gasoline exhaust speciated PM and naphthalene. These pre- temperature

- adjusted emission s at 72°F are projected to year 2030 from year 2005 inventories using the 20 30 -specific runs of MOVES2010a. VMT were projected using growth rates from the AEO2009. As with the on_noadj sector, the 2030 MOVES2010a data were created at the state -month level,

and the 2030 NMIM results were used to disaggregate the state level results to the county level.

MOVES -based temperature adjustment factors were applied to gridded, hourly emissions using gridded, hourly meteorology. As seen in Figure 4 -1 , fo r year 2030 , we used the same temperature adjustment factors

as the 2005 base case for both start and running modes. However, cold start temperature adjustment factors

decrease i n future years, and for year 2030 processing, we updated the temperature adjustment curves for these cold start emissions. Note that running exhaust temperature adjustment factors are the same for all years. Also, it is worth noting that the running mode gasoline exhaust emissions are considerably larger than

cold start mode gaso line exhaust emissions before application of the temperature adjustments.29 Figure 4-1. MOVES exhaust temperature adjustment functions for 2005 and 2030

4.3.1.1 Nonroad mobile (nonroad)

This sector includes mont hly exhaust, evaporative and refueling emissions from nonroad engines (not including commercial marine, aircraft, and locomotives) derived from NMIM for all states except California. Like the onroad emissions, NMIM provides nonroad emissions for VOC by three emission modes: exhaust, evaporative and refueling. Unlike the onroad sector, nonroad refueling emissions for nonroad sources are not included in the nonpoint (nonpt) sector and so are retained in this sector.

With the exception of California, U.S. emissions for the nonroad sector (defined as the equipment types covered by NMIM) were created using a consistent NMIM -based approach as was used for 2005, but projected for 2030. The 2030 NMIM runs utilized the NR05d-Bond-final version of NONROAD (which is equivalent to NONROAD2008a ). The future -year emissions account for increases in activity (based on

NONROAD model default growth estimates of future -year equipment population) and changes in fuels and engines that reflect implementation of national regulations and local control programs that impact each year differently due to engine turnover. We have not included voluntary programs such as programs encouraging either no refueling or evening refueling on Ozone Action Days and diesel retrofit programs.

The national regulations incorporated in the modeling are those promulgated prior to December 2009, and beginning about 1990. Recent rules include:

• “Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Final Rule - Tier 4”: (http://www.epa.gov/nonroaddiesel/2004fr.htm ), published June 29, 2004, and,

• Control of Emissions from Nonroad Large Spark -Ignition Engines, and Recreational Engines (Marine

and Land -Based), November 8, 2002 (“Pentathalon Rule”).

• OTAQ’s Locomotive Marine Rule, March 2008 : ( http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm )

• OTAQ’s Small Engine Spark Ignition (“Bond”) Rule, November 2008 : ( http://www.epa.gov/otaq/equip-ld.htm ) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

- 20

- 15

- 10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70Adjustment Factor

Temperature (F) Run Exhaust Both Years

Start Exhaust 2005

Start Exhaust 203030 All states except C alifornia :

OTAQ provided several runs of NMIM emissions for the LDGHG (control case) Rule that were blended together to create the 2030 HDGHG nonroad sector emissions. We used these same nonroad emissions for

both the reference and control cases in HDGHG. Table 4-11 shows how the various NMIM runs were combined to create the non-California nonroad mobile inventories. The first component “2002v3- based 2030 Base Case” is from the 2030 Base case in our 2002v3 platform for the SCCs listed in Table 4-11

. OTAQ also provided diesel recreational marine (pleasure craft) emissions in November 2009.

Table 4-11. Components of 2030 HDGHG Nonroad Sector

NMIM file SCCs Description of Nonroad

SCCs

2002v3-based 2030 Base Case 2267x LPG equipment

2268x CNG equipment

2270x Diesel engines
2285002015,

2285006015 Railway maintenance

LdGhgN2030e0_nponzseg11dies.txt 22820200x Diesel recreational

marine

LdGhgN2030e10.txt 2260x 2

- stroke gasoline engines

2265x 4

- stroke gasoline engines
228200x,

228201x Gasoline recreational

marine

All NMIM data are based on AEO2007 fuels and NMIM county database NCD20080727. We converted emissions from monthly totals to monthly average

- day values based the on number of days in each month.

CO 2 and all of California emissions were removed prior to creating SMOKE one record per line ( ORL ) files.

California nonroad: California monthly nonroad emissions are year 2030 and are based on March 2007 California Air Resources Board (CARB) data (Martin Johnson: mjohnson@arb.ca.gov). NH3 emissions are from NMIM runs for California (same data as we re used in 2030 from the 2002 v3 platform ) . We allocated refueling e missions to the gasoline equipment types based on evaporative mode VOC emissions from the 2002 v3 platform 2030 NMIM data, and the refueling emissions were computed by multiplying SCC 2505000120 emissions by 0.61, to adjust to remove double counting with Portable Fuel Container inventory for California. We

estimated HAP emissions by applying HAP

- to -CAP ratios computed from the Calif ornia data provided for

the 2005 NEI v2, collected by EPA on 12/2007. T his was done because the C ARB submittal from March

2007 did not include estimates for HAPs. We r etained only those HAPs that are also estimated by NMIM for nonroad mobile sources; all other HAPs were dropped.



### 4.3.2 Locomotives and Class 1 & 2 commercial marine vessels (alm_no_c3)

Future year locomotive and Class 1 and Class 2 commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions were calculated using projection factors that were computed based on national, annual summaries of locomotive emissions in 2002 and year 2030. These national summaries were used to create national by -pollutant, by- SCC pr ojection factors; these factors include final loco motive -marine controls and are provided in Table 4 -12.31 Table 4-12 . Factors applied to year 2005 emissions to project locomotives and Class 1 and Class 2

Commercial Marine Vessel Emissions to 2030

SCC SCC Description Poll utant Projection

Factor

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions CO 0.956

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions NH 3 1.285

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions NO X 0.372

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions PM 10 0.350

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions PM 2.5 0.356

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions SO 2 0.045

2280002X00 Marine Vessels, Commercial;Diesel;Underway & port emissions VOC 0.402

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations CO 1.640

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations NH 3 1.627

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations NO X 0.357

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations PM 10 0.260

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations PM 2.5 0.263

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations SO 2 0.006

2285002006 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class I Operations VOC 0.293

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations CO 0.403

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations NH 3 1.627

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations NO X 0.350

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations PM 10 0.272

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations PM 2.5 0.275

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations SO 2 0.001

2285002007 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Class II / III Operations VOC 0.387

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) CO 1.188

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) NH 3 1.627

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) NO X 0.241

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) PM 10 0.148

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) PM 2.5 0.149

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) SO 2 0.005

2285002008 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Passenger Trains (Amtrak) VOC 0.136

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines CO 1.172

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines NH 3 1.627

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines NO X 0.237

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines PM 10 0.146

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines PM 2.5 0.146

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines SO 2 0.005

2285002009 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Line Haul Locomotives: Commuter Lines VOC 0.134

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives CO 1.649

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives NH 3 1.627

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives NO X 0.851

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives PM 10 0.690

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives PM 2.5 0.704

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives SO 2 0.007

2285002010 Railroad Equipment;Diesel;Yard Locomotives VOC 1.074

The future-year locomotive emissions account for increased fuel consumption based on Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuel consumption projections for freight rail, and emissions reductions resu lting from

emissions standards from the Final Locomotive- Marine rule (EPA, 2009). This rule lowered diesel sulfur content and tightened emission standards for existing and new locomotives and marine diesel emissions to

lower future

- year PM, SO 2 , and NO X , and is documented at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420f08004.htm

. Voluntary retrofits under the National Clean Diesel Campaign ( http://www.epa.gov/otaq/diesel/index.htm ) are not included in our projections.32 We applied HAP factors for VOC HAPs by using the VOC projection factors to obtain 1,3-butadiene, acetaldehyde, acrolein, benzene, and formaldehyde.

Class 1 and 2 CMV gasoline emissions (SCC = 2280004000) were not changed for future-year processing. C1/C2 diesel emissions (SCC = 2280002100 and 2280002200) were projected based on the Final Locomotive Marine rule national-level factors provided in Table 4 -12. Similar to locomotives, VOC HAPs were projected based on the VOC fact or.

Delaware provided updated future- year NO X , SO 2 , and PM emission estimates for C1/C2 CMV as part of the Transport Rule comments. These updated emissions were applied to the 2030 inventory and override the C1/C2 projection factors in Table 4 -12.



### 4.3.3 Cla ss 3 commercial marine vessels (seca_c3)

The seca_c3 sector emissions data were provided by OTAQ in an ASCII raster format used since the SO 2 Emissions Control Area-International Marine Organization ( ECA

- IMO ) project began in 2005. The (S)ECA Category 3 ( C3 ) commercial marine vessel 2002 base -case emissions were projected to year 2005 for the 2005 base case and to year 2030 for the HDGHG future reference case , which includes ECA -IMO controls. An overview of the ECA-IMO project and future- year goals for reduction of NO X , SO 2 , and PM C3

emissions can be found at: http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420f09015.htm

The resulting coordinated strategy, including emission stand ards under the Clean Air Act for new marine diesel engines with per -cylinder displacement at or above 30 liters, and the establishment of Emission

Control Areas is at: http://www.epa.gov/oms/oceanvessels.htm

These projection factors vary depending on geographic region and pollutant; where VOC HAPs are assigned the same growth rates as VOC. The projection factors used to create the 2030 seca_c3 sector emissions are provided in Table 4 -13. Note that th ese factors are relative to 2002. Factors relative to 2005 can be computed from the 2002-2005 factors.

The geographic regions are described in the ECA Proposal technical support document: http://www.epa.gov/oms/regs/nonroad/marine/ci/420r09007-chap2.pdf . These regions extend up to 200 nautical miles offshore, though less at international boundaries. North and South Pacific regions are divided by the Oregon-Washington border, and East Coast and Gulf Coast regions are divided east-west by roughly the upper Florida Keys just southwest of Miami.

The factors to compute HAP emission are based on emissions ratios discussed in the 2005v4 documentation ( ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/2005_emissions_tsd_07jul2010.pdf ). As with the 2005 base case,

this sector uses CAP

- HAP VOC integration.33 Table 4-13. NO X , SO 2 , and PM 2.5 Factors to Project Class 3 Commercial Marine Vessel emissions to 20 30

Region NOX SO2 PM2.5 VOC
Alaska East 1.702 0.095 0.312 2.487
Alaska West 2.052 0.456 0.571 2.396
East Coast 1.072 0.123 0.470 3.464
Gulf Coast 0.688 0.079 0.303 2.217
Hawaii East 1.416 0.147 0.506 3.839
Hawaii West 2.783 0.733 0.871 3.842
North Pacific 0.874 0.098 0.348 2.528
South Pacific 1.232 0.166 0.589 4.225
Great Lakes 1.090 0.057 0.214 1.621
Outside ECA 2.427 0.623 0.745 3.417



### 4.4 **Canada, Mexico, and Offshore sources (othar, othon, and othpt)**

Emissions for Canada, Mexico, and offshore sources were not projected to future years, and are therefore the same as those used in the 2005 base case. Therefore, the Mexico emissions are based on year 1999, offshore oil is based on year 2005, and Canada is based on year 2006. For both Mexico and Canada, their responsible agencies did not provide future- year emissions that were consistent with the bas e year emissions.



## 5 2030 Control Case

The 2030 HDGHG Control case is intended to represent the emissions associated with use of the most likely volume of ethanol after application of the greenhouse gas emissions standards for c ommercial medium-and

h eavy -d uty on-h ighway v ehicles and w ork trucks beginning with the 2014 model year (MY). The control case assumes improvements in fuel consumption or greenhouse gas emissions in MY 2014 through 2018. Similar to the reference case, the control case does not inclu de fuel and emissions changes from the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), or the revised annual Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS2); however the Light Duty Greenhouse Gas (LDGHG) impacts are included in both this control case and the

referenc e case discussed in section 4.

The 2030 Control case inventories differ from the reference case in only two components: 1) Gasoline distribution impacts in the non -EGU point (ptnonipm) and nonpoint sectors, and 2) MOVES2010a-based onroad mobile impacts to medium and heavy duty vehicles.



### 5.1 **20 30 Control Case**  **Point and Nonpoint**  **sources**
The point sources for the 2030 HDGHG Control Case include the same emissions as the 20 30 Reference

Case for the following point source emissions modeling sectors: US EGU point source (ptipm), sources from Mexico, Canada, and the Gulf of Mexico (othpt). The nonpoint sources for the 2030 HDGHG Control Case include the same emissions as the 2030 Reference Case for the following nonpoint source emissions modeling sectors: area fugitive du st (afdust), agricultural ammonia (ag), average

- year fires (avefire) and sources from Mexico and Canada (othar).

The HDGHG year 2030 control case changes to the point and nonpoint emissions are limited to Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) year2010- based upstrea m adjustments: refinery supply estimates and estimated reductions in consumption that impact crude production and transport/distribution emissions from the HDGHG control strategy for medium and heavy duty vehicles. The only sectors impacted by these cont rol case adjustments are the ptnonipm (point) and nonpt (nonpoint) sectors. VOC speciation changes from the

reference to the control case are discussed in Section 3.34 Upstream adjustments to oil refining, crude production, and transport were supplied by O TAQ on

12/16/2010 in the Excel ® workbook “HDGHG_AQADJ_121610.xlsx ”. These adjustments reduce all pollutant emissions from the 2030 reference case and are summarized below in Table 5-1

.

Table 5-1. Upstream HDGHG Control Case adjustments

Category Sectors Impacted %

Reduction Cumulative Emissions Reductions

NO X PM 2.5 SO 2 VOC

Production nonpt and ptnonipm 0.13%
1,667 308 1,821 1,794 Refinery nonpt and ptnonipm 1.27% Transport nonpt and ptnonipm 0.13%



### 5.2 **20 30 Control Case**  **Mobile sources**

The onroad mobile and nonroad mobile sources for the 2030 HDGHG Control Case include the same emissions as the 2030 Reference Case for the following emissions modeling sectors: US nonroad mobile (nonroad), US locomotives and non- C3 commercial marine (alm_no_c3), C3 commercial marine (seca_c3), Canada and Mexico onroad mobile emissions (othon) and Canada and Mexico nonroad emissions (also in the othar sector with Canada and Mexico stationary sources). California onroad mobile emissions were also not changed in the control case except for NH 3 , where MOVES control case emissions replaced MOVES

reference case NH 3 estimates.

The HDGHG year 2030 control case changes to the mobile sectors are limited to the MOVES2010a- based

onroad non- California (except NH 3 ) inventories and impact the following onroad mobile emissions modeling sectors: on_moves_runpm, on_moves_startpm and on_noadj.

Similar to the 2005 HDGHG and 2030 HDGHG reference cases, w e allocated the state

- SCC MOVES data to county-SCC using ratios developed from the same 2030 NMIM county- SCC data as used in the 2030

HDGHG reference case . Other than the different MOVES2010a emissions data, we used the same processing steps as described for the 2005 base and 2030 reference cases. VOC speciation changes fr om the

reference to the control case are discussed in Section 3.

Control case onroad mobile reductions are provided in Table 5-2 . Small increases in PM 2.5 are the re sult of slight increases in auxiliary power unit emissions.

Table 5-2. Onroad mobile reductions from HDGHG controls

NO X PM 2.5 SO 2 VOC

Reductions 215,639

- 237 304 22,953

% Reduction from Reference case 11.9%

- 0.2% 1.3% 2.4%35 

## 6 References

EPA, 2005. Clean Air Interstate Rule Emissions Inventory Technical Support Document, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, March 005.

Available at http://www.epa.gov/cair/pdfs/finaltech01.pdf

. EPA, 2006. Regulatory Impact Analyses, 2006 N ational Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particle Pollution. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, October, 2006. Docket # EPA- HQ

- OAR -2001-0017, # EPAHQ- OAR -2006-0834. Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/ria.html

. EPA, 2007a. Guidance for Estimating VOC and NOx Emission Changes from MACT Rules, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Quality Policy Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, EPA-457/B-07-001, May 2007. Available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/ozone/o3imp8hr/documents/guidance/200705_epa457_b-07- 001_emission_changes_mact_rules.pdf

.
EPA. 2007b. National Scale Modeling for the Final Mobile Source Air Toxics Rule, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Emissions Analysis and Monitoring Division, Research Trian gle Park, NC 27711, EPA 454/R-07-002, February 2007. Available at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/toxics/454r07002.pdf

EPA, 2009. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression Ignition Engines Less than 30 Liters Per Cylinder. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Assessment and Standards Division, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, EPA420-R-08-001a, May 2009. Available at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/nonroad/420r08001a.pdf

EPA, 2010. Technical Support Document: The Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) Model and the Analysis for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants and New Source Performance Standards for the Portland Cement Manufacturing Industry, U.S. Environmental

Protection Agency, Sectors Policies and Program Division and Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, August 2010.

SRI, 2009. Southwest Research Insititute, Final Report prepared for Coordinating Research Council, Inc.:

ACES Phase I: Phase 1 of the Advanced Collaborative Emissions Study, June 2009. Available at: http://www.crcao.org/reports/recentstudie s2009/ACES%20Phase%201/ACES%20Phase1%20Final% 20Report%2015JUN2009.pdf36 

## APPENDIX A

Modified HDGHG Equations to adapt pre- speciated diesel emissions from MOVES to air quality modeling species needed for CMAQ

As shown in equation (1) below, MOVES provides total PM 2.5 , PEC and PSO4. A remainder term, R , makes up the difference between the two species and the total PM 2.5

.

MOVES total PM 2.5 = PEC + PSO 4 + R (1)

The R term includes POM, which consists of POC and the hydrogen and oxygen atoms attached to the carbon as part of the organic matter, PNO3, soil oxides and metals (also known as “crustal” and called METAL here), ammonium, and water, and thus can be also writte n as:

R = POM + PNO3 + METAL + NH4 + H 2 0 (2 )

To correctly calculate the five PM 2.5 species needed for CMAQ, we first needed to break out the POC, PNO3, and PMFINE from R . Different calculations are used for light

- duty diesel vehicles and heav y-duty diesel vehicles, since the speciation profiles for these are different. The speciation profiles used for these

calculations are:

For both light duty diesel vehicles and heavy duty diesel vehicles, the SPECIATE 4.0 PM2.5 speciation profiles “ 3914” (HHDV) and “92042” (LDDV) will be used to help calculate the other species. At the time, OTAQ did not provide a justification for choosing this profile, but the fractions of metals and PNO3 are small and so presumably the choice does not matter too much a s long as the smallest of those fractions is representative.

We computed the primary nitrate based on speciation profile 92011 from the SPECIATE4.1 database (Hsu et al., 2006) using equation (3) shown below.

PNO3 = PEC × F NO3 / F EC (3)

where,

F

EC = Fr action of elemental carbon in speciation profile: - LDDV: 57.4805% (based on profile 92042) 2
- HDDV: 77.1241% (based on profile 3914)

F

NO3 = Fraction of nitrate in speciation profile

- LDDV: 0.1141% (based on profile 3914, intentionally inconsistent)

- HDDV: 0.1141% (based on profile 3914)

To identify which sources should get the LDDV and which should get the HDDV approach, see Table 1,

below.

Since CMAQ’s PMFINE species is the sum of soil oxides, metals, ammonium, and water, we needed to

calculate all of its components. First, the metals and ammonium are computed using equations (4) and (5). Equation (5) is based on stoichiometric calculations.

2 All profile fractions provided in email from Catherine Yanca on 11/6/2009, 1:49pm in attachment “ Equations for diesel MOVES speciation use in CMAQ 110609.doc ”37 METAL = PEC × F metal / F EC (4)

NH4 = ( PNO3/ MW NO3 +2 × PSO4/ MW SO4 ) × MW NH4 (5)

where,

F

metal = Fraction of metals in speciation profile (0.002663 3

MW SO4 = Molecular weight of sulfate ( 96.0576) )

MW NO3 = Molecular weight of nitrate ( 62.0049)

MW NH4 = Molecular weight of ammonium (18.0383)

The final component of PMFINE is the non- carbon mass of organic carbon. To calculate the non -carbon mass, we first needed to compute organic carbon from the remainder term, R

.

A key assumption is that POM is a factor of 1.2 greater than the mass of primary organic carbon, which is also used in the CMAQ postprocess ing software at EPA.

POM = 1.2 × POC (6)

Using this assumption and assuming that the H 2 0 is negligible, the equation needed for the calculation of POC is shown in equation s 7a and 7b for gasoline exhaust and diesel exhaust, respectively. As discuss ed in

Section 2 .3, for HDGHG, the NH4 component was removed for diesel exhaust only.

Gasoline Exhaust: POC = 5/6 × ( R

– METAL

– NH4

– PNO3) (7 a)

Diesel Exhaust: POC = 5/6 × ( R

– METAL

– PNO3) (7b)

See Appendix B of the 2005v4 TSD for more complete discussion on PM speciation for gasoline exhaust

processes: ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2005v4/2005_emissions_tsd_appendices_11may2010.pdf

.

From equation (6), the non-carbon portion of the organic carbon matter is 20%, of the POC. By definition, PMFINE is the sum of the non-carbon portion of the mass, METAL and NH4. Thus, we computed PMFINE_72 using equations (8 a and 8b) shown below for gasoline and diese l exhaust

.

Gasoline Exhaust: PMFINE_72 = METAL + NH4 + 0.2 × POC_72 (8 a)

Diesel Exhaust: PMFINE_72 = METAL + 0.2 × POC_72 (8b)

Equations 7a and 8a (with NH4) will be obsolete in all subsequent MOVES post-processing; we did not have time to reprocess the gasoline exhaust emissions for HDGHG; however, the computed NH4 component in gasoline exhaust was much smaller than for diesel exhaust so this impact should be negligible.

For mobile sources, we assumed that PMC is 8.6% of the PM 2.5 mass. Equation (9) shows how we

calculated it.

PMC = 0.086 × (PMFINE + PEC + POC + PSO4 + PNO3 ) (9)

Table A-1. List of SCC groups for application of LDDV or HDDV approach Approach SCC list

LDDV 2230001000 through 2230060334

HDDV 2230071110 through 2230075330

3 Value provided by Catherine Yanca and Joe Somers to OAQPS in email provided 11/5/200938 

## APPENDIX B

Inventory Data F iles Used for Each H DGHG Modeling Case – SMOKE Input Inventory Datasets

In any of the following dataset names where the placeholder <mon> has been provided, this is intended to mean 12 separate files with the <mon> placeholder replaced with either jan, feb, mar, apr, may, jun, jul, aug, sep, oct, nov, or dec, each associated with a particular month of the year.39 Table B-1. List of inventory data associated with H DGHG modeling cases.

Cas e Sector SMOKE Input Files

2005 Base (2005cs_hdghg_05b) ptipm Annual: ptinv_ptipm_2005cs_cap_27dec2010_txt_29dec2010_v1_orl.txt

Annual: ptinv_ptipm_2005cs_hap_27dec2010_txt_27dec2010_v0_orl.txt

Daily: ptday_ptipm_caphap_noncem_2005cs_05b_<mon th > _ida.txt

Daily: ptday_ptipm_caphap_cem_2005cs_05b_<mon th >_ida.txt

ptnonipm ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_cap2005v2_2005cs_orl_06jan2011_v4_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_hap2005v2_2005cs_orl_04jan2011_v2_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_caphap_ethanol_plant_additions_2005_30jun2010_v3_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_2005cap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_2005hap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

afdust arinv_afdust_2002ad_xportfrac_26sep2007_v0_orl.txt

ag arinv_ag_cap2002nei_06nov2006_v0_orl.txt

alm_no_c3 arinv_lm_no_c3_hap2002v4_20feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_lm_no_c3_cap2002v3_22dec2010_v1_orl.txt

nonpt arinv_nonpt_pf4_cap_nopfc_04jan2011_v5_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_pf4_hap_nopfc_nobafmpesticidesplus_04jan2011_v3_orl.txt

arinv_pfc_2002_caphap_27dec2007_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_cap_2005_WRAP_OilGas_04feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_cap_2005_TCEQ_Oklahoma_OilGas_28may2010_v0_orl.txt

nonroad arinv_nonroad_caps_2005v2_ <month> _revised_08sep2008_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonroad_calif_caphap_2005v2_revised_ <month> _23jun2010_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonroad_haps_2005v2_<month>_revised_05sep2008_v0_orl.txt on_noadj mbinv_on_noadj_MOVES_with_NO_NO2_HONO_2005cs_hdghg_ <month>_24FEB2011_24feb2011_v0_orl.txt

mbinv_onroad_calif_caphap_2005v2_revised_ <month> _16feb2011_v1_orl.txt

on_moves_runpm mbinv_on_moves_runpm_2005cs_hdghg_< month>_03FEB2011_03feb2011_v0_orl.txt

on_moves_startpm mbinv_on_moves_startpm_2005cs_hdghg_<month>_03FEB2011_03feb2011_v0_orl.txt

seca_c3 ptinv_eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_vochaps_2005_09DEC2010_09dec2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_caps_2005_09DEC2010_09dec2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_wDE_andSCC_fix_caps_2005_09DEC2010_09dec2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_andSCC_fix_vochaps_2005_09DEC2010_09dec2010_v0_orl.txt

All Cases avefire arinv_avefire_2002ce_21dec2007_v0_ida.txt

arinv_avefire_2002_hap_18nov2008_v0_orl.txt

othar arinv_nonroad_mexico_interior1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

arinv_nonroad_mexico_border1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

arinv_nonpt_mexico_interior1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

arinv_nonpt_mexico_border1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

arinv_canada_offroad_cap_2006_04feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_marine_cap_2006_03feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_oarea_cap_2006_02mar2009_v3_orl.txt40 Cas e Sector SMOKE Input Files

arinv_canada_aircraft_cap_2006_04feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_rail_cap_2006_03feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_ag_cap_2006_03feb2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_canada_afdust_xportfrac_cap_2006_03feb2009_v0_orl.txt

othon mbinv_canada_onroad_cap_2006_04feb2009_v0_orl.txt

mbinv_onroad_mexico_border1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt

mbinv_onroad_mexico_interior1999_21dec2006_v0_ida.txt othpt ptinv_canada_point_2006_orl_09mar2009_v2_orl.txt

ptinv_canada_point_cb5_2006_orl_10mar2009_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_canada_point_uog_2006_orl_02mar2009_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_mexico_border99_03mar2008_v1_ida.txt

ptinv_mexico_interior99_05feb2007_v0_ida.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_offshore_oil_cap2005v2_20nov2008_20nov2008_v0_orl.txt

2030 Reference

and Control Ptipm Annual: ptinv_PTINV_EPA410_BC_15b_summer_2030_02FEB2011_ORL_04feb2011_v0_orl.txt

Daily: ptday_ptipm_caphap_noncem_2030cs_hdghg_ref_05b_<month> _ida.txt

Daily: ptday_ptipm_caphap_cem_2030cs_hdghg_ref_05b_<month>_ida.txt

afdust arinv_afdust_2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ag arinv_ag_cap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

alm_no_c3 arinv_lm_no_c3_hap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_lm_no_c3_cap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

Nonroad arinv_nonroad_capshaps_LDGHG_2030_CONTROL_<month>_15DEC09_15dec2009_v0_orl.txt arinv_nonroad_calif_caphap_2030v31_<month>_17apr2008_v0_orl.txt

seca_c3 ptinv_eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_vochaps_2030_08FEB2011_08feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_CANADA_SCC_fix_caps_2030_08FEB2011_08feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_wDE_andSCC_fix_caps_2030_08FEB2011_08feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_eca_imo_fixFIPS_US_andSCC_fix_vochaps_2030_08FEB2011_08feb2011_v0_orl.txt 2030 Reference Only (2030cs_hdghg_ref_05b) ptnonipm ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_cap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_hap2030cs_10feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_caphap_ethanol_plant_additions_2005_30jun2010_v3_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_2005cap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_2005hap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_cornproducts17031_hap_cap_2008t_27aug2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_capHG_cementISIS_2016cr_16AUG2010_16aug2010_v0_orl.txt

nonpt arinv_nonpt_2030cs_pf4_cap_nopfc_11feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_2030cs_pf4_hap_nopfc_nobafmpesticidesplus_11feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_pfc_caphap2030_02apr2008_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_cap_2018PhaseII_WRAP_OilGas_24aug2009_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_2030cs_from_cap_2008_TCEQ_Oklahoma_OilGas_11feb2011_v0_orl.txt on_noadj mbinv_on_noadj_MOVES_with_NO_NO2_HONO_2030cs_hdghg_ref_<month>_23FEB2011_23feb2011_v0_orl.txt

mbinv_onroad_calif_caphap_2030v31_<month>_14feb2011_v1_orl.txt

on_moves_runpm mbinv_on_moves_runpm_2030cs_hdghg_ref_<month>_04FEB2011_04feb2011_v0_orl.txt41 Cas e Sector SMOKE Input Files

on_moves_startpm mbinv_on_moves_startpm_2030cs_hdghg_ref_<month>_04FEB2011_04feb2011_v0_orl.txt

2030 Control Only (2030cs_hdghg_ctl_05b) Ptnonipm ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_cap2030cs_hdghg_ctl_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_hap2030cs_hdghg_ctl_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_caphap_ethanol_plant_additions_2005_30jun2010_v3_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_xportfrac_2005cap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_2005hap_v1_from_2005ai_ND_ADM_plant_30jun2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_cornproducts17031_hap_cap_2008t_27aug2010_v0_orl.txt

ptinv_ptnonipm_capHG_cementISIS_2016cr_16AUG2010_16aug2010_v0_orl.txt
Nonpt arinv_nonpt_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_pf4_cap_nopfc_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_pf4_hap_nopfc_nobafmpesticidesplus_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_pfc_caphap2030_02apr2008_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_cap_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_from_2018PhaseII_WRAP_OilGas_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

arinv_nonpt_2030cs_hdghg_from_2030cs_TCEQ_Oklahoma_OilGas_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt on_noadj mbinv_on_noadj_MOVES_with_NO_NO2_HONO_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_<month>_25FEB2011_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

mbinv_onroad_calif_caphap_2030v31_<month>_14feb2011_v1_orl.txt

on_moves_runpm mbinv_on_moves_runpm_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_<month>_25FEB2011_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt

on_moves_startpm mbinv_on_moves_startpm_2030cs_hdghg_ctl_<month>_25FEB2011_25feb2011_v0_orl.txt42 

## APPENDIX C

Ancillary Data Files Used for H DGHG 2005 Case Compared to 2005 v4.2 Platform Data Files

To match the Datasets and Versions listed in this table to actual data files, combine the Dataset name and the version number in the following pattern: <Dataset Name>_<Date>_<Version number>.txt, where <Date> is the last date of change for that version and will have a unique value for the combination of Dataset Name

and Version number.43 Table C-1. Detailed list of ancillary data differences between the H DGHG 2005 and the 2005 v4.2 platform

Description Environme

nt Variable 2005 v4 .2 platform 2005 H DGHG platform

Sectors Dataset Vs

n Dataset Vs

n Comment and Impact Impact

?

Inventory table INVTABLE All

sectors invtable_hapcapintegate_cb0 5soa_nomp_nohg 3 invtable_hapcap_cb05soa 10 H DGHG used a toxics “lite” approach for processing the emissions and 2005 v4 .2 platform used an approach without most toxics. Impacts only the species included in the air quality modeling. H DGHG also includes speciated NO,

NO2 and HONO from MOVES2010a onroad

mobile sources. Yes

Inventory table INVTABLE avefire, ptnonipm, ptipm invtable_hapcapnohapuse_c b05soa_nomp_nohg 1 invtable_hapcap_cb05_no_b

afm 3 Approach for implementing "no HAP use" approach for these sectors was different in

H DGHG, but the result was the same. No

Combination

Profiles GSPRO_C

OMBO onroad, nonroad, ptnonipm,
nonpt gspro_combo_2005 2 gspro_combo_2005 6 Different fuel mixes for refueling, PFCs, and gasoline distribution in ptnoipm and nonpt in

HDGHG

– see Section 3 in HDGHG TSD. Yes

VOC to TOG pollutant

conversions GSCNV All

sectors gscnv_cmaq_cb05_tx_pf 4 3 gscnv_cb05_soa 1 Contains all 3 2005v4.2 GSCNV datasets appended into a single dataset. Updated for HDGHG profiles. Yes

VOC to TOG pollutant

conversions GSCNV All

sectors gscnv_cmaq_cb05_hspace_t

oxic 0 n/a Headspace profiles for NON HAP TOG No

VOC to TOG pollutant

conversions GSCNV All

sectors gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_B

AF 1 n/a Headspace profiles for benzene No

Speciation profiles

- static GSPRO All

sectors gspro_static_cmaq 9 gspro_static_cmaq 12 Added NO, NO2, and HONO for MOVES2010a species. Yes

Speciation profiles for TOG GSPRO All

sectors gspro_tog_cb05_soa_pf4_pr

etier2 1 gspro_tog_cb05_soa 1 Excluded ald2_primary and form_primary from v4 platform since not needed No

Speciation profiles Other

VOC HAP GSPRO All

sectors n/a gspro_other_hapvoc_no_ben

z- benz 0 For H DGHG, this dataset has the HAP VOC species that get passed through from inventory to the multipollutant inputs created for H DGHG. Yes

Speciation profiles for non

- GSPRO All

sectors gspro_nonhaptog_cb05_tx_p f4_pretier2 1 gspro_nonhaptog_cb05 1 Updated HDGHG profiles and also appends the

next three listed GSPRO datasets from v4.2 in this Yes44 Description Environme

nt Variable 2005 v4 .2 platform 2005 H DGHG platform

Sectors Dataset Vs

n Dataset Vs

n Comment and Impact Impact

?

HAP TOG table

Speciation profile

8762/8763 for

toxics GSPRO All

sectors gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_t

oxic 0 n/a toxics from NONHAPTOG for headspace profiles

8762 and 8763 No

Speciation profile

8762/8763 for

nontoxics GSPRO All

sectors gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_n

ontoxic 0 n/a toxics from TOG for headspace profiles 8762 and

8763 No

Speciation profile

8762/8763 for

TOG to BAF GSPRO All

sectors gspro_cmaq_cb05_hspace_B

AF 1 n/a benzene from TOG for headspace profiles 8762

and 8763 No

Speciation xref

for NONHAPVOC,
not year

- specific GSREF All

sectors gsref_nonhapvoc_general_ld ghg_cr_update 6 gsref_nonhapvoc_general_h dghg 1 Reassigned nonroad diesel exhaust and pleasure

craft from code 4674 to 8774. Yes

Speciation xref

for NONHAPVOC,

year

- specific GSREF All

sectors gsref_nonhapvoc_2005_ldgh g_cr_update 6 gsref_nonhapvoc_2005_hdg hg 1 Replaced 8762 (E0) headspace refueling/distribution with COMBO E0/E10 profile, add pre

- 2007 HD trucks profile (8774) Yes

Speciation xref for VOC, not

year

- specific GSREF All

sectors gsref_voc_general_ldghg 6 gsref_voc_general_h dghg 2 Reassigned nonroad diesel exhaust and pleasure

craft from code 4674 to 8774. Yes

Speciation xref for VOC, year

specific GSREF All

sectors gsref_voc_2005_ldghg 5 gsref_voc_2005_h dghg 3 Replaced 8762 (E0) headspace refueling/distribution with COMBO E0/E10 profile, add pre

- 2007 HD trucks profile (8774) Yes

Speciation xref

- static GSREF All

sectors gsref_static_cap_pf4 0 gsref_static_cap_pf4 1 Allows MOVES2010a NO, NO2, and HONO to pass through as

- is. Yes

SCC Descriptions SCCDESC All

sectors sccdesc_pf31 10 sccdesc_pf31 11 New SCC found for Hg processing ptnonipm No45 

## Appendix D

Summary of HDGHG Rule 2030 Reference Case Non- EGU Control Programs, Closures and Projections

Lists of control, closure, projection packet datasets used to create HDGHG year 2030 Reference case inventories from the 2005 HDGHG base case are provided in Tables D -1 and D-2.

Table D -1. Datasets used to Create HDGHG 2030 Inventories for Non

- EGU Point So urces

Name Type Dataset Version Description CLOSURES LotusNotes, ABCG, plus Timin

2016cr Plant

Closure CLOSURES_LotusNotes_Linda_Timin_2016
cr_23AUG2010 1 Plant and unit closures identified through EPA

review.

CLOSURES TR1 comments and consent decrees

2014cs Plant

Closure CLOSURES_TR1_2014cs_01FEB2011 0 Plant and unit closures through 2014 identified as a result of Transport Rule comments.

CLOSURES cement ISIS 2013 policy Plant

Closure CLOSURES_cementISIS_2016cr_17AUG201

0 1 Cement plant and unit closures identified via the ISIS 2013 policy case.

closures: 2005 to 2012ck Plant

Closure CLOSURES_2005ck_to_2012ck_CoST_form

at 0 Plant and unit closures identified 2008 or before.

CONTROL ADDITIONAL OECA 2005cr to

2016cr Control CONTROLS_additional_NEIpf4_OECA_200
5cr_2016cr_29JUL2010 1 Controls that implement OECA consent decrees.

CONTROL REPLACE DOJ 2005cr to 2016cr Control CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_DOJ_200
5cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 0 Controls resulting from the 2002v3 DOJ Texas

settlement.

CONTROL REPLACE HWI 2005cr to 2016cr Control CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_HWI_200
5cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 1 Hazardous Waste Incinerator controls for CAPs and Haps carried over from 2002v31.

CONTROL REPLACE IndustrialBoiler

nonMACT 2005cr to 2016cr Control CONTROLS_replacement_IndBoilers_nonM ACT_by2008_20AUG2010 0 Industrial boiler controls not related to application

of the MACT but derived from the Boiler MACT

ICR database dated 4/30/10.

CONTROL REPLACE LMWC 2005cr to 2016cr Control CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_LMWC_
2005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 0 Controls for large municipal combustors carried

over from 2002v31.

CONTROL REPLACE MACT 2005cr to 2016cr Control CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_MACT_2
005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 0 MACT controls carried over from 2002v3 and updated as appropriate.

CONTROL REPLACE NY SIP 2005cr to 2016cr Control CONTROLS_replacement_NYSIP_O3_SCC_
2016cr_26AUG2010 0 Controls that reflect enforceable controls for NOx

and VOC from the New York ozone SIP.

CONTROL REPLACE Refineries 2005cr to

2016cr Control CONTROLS_replacement_NEIpf4_refineries
_2005cr_2016cr_02AUG2010.txt 0 Controls for refineries specified by EPA expert refinery staff.

CONTROL RICE 2016cr_05b Control CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_2016cr_21

SEP2010 1 Controls for 2014 and 2016 that represent three separate RICE NESHAPs

CONTROL RICE SO2 2014cs_05b Control CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_SO2_2014c
s_05JAN2011 1 SO2 reductions from the Ultra

- low Sulfur Diesel requirement for CI engines
CONTROL SULF rules: ME, NY, NJ 2018 and beyond Control CONTROLS_SULF_rules_2018_and_beyond
_03FEB2011 1 SO2 reductions due to state sulfur content rules for

fuel oil.46 CONTROL St Gobain and LaFarge 2017 Control CONTROLS_rep_Lafarge_StGobain_2017cs
_25JAN2011.txt 0 Controls for NOx, SO2, PM., and HCl resulting from Saint Gobain and Lafarge consent decrees

CONTROL TR1 Final CONTROL packet: 2021 Control CONTROLS_TR1_2021_09FEB2011 1 Controls for TCEQ oil and gas and non

- ISIS

related cement controls.

CONTROL TR1 Final consent decr ees 2019 Control CONTROLS_additional_TR1final_consent_d
ecrees_2005cs_to_2019cs 1 Controls related to consent decrees identified during the Transport Rule comment period.

CONTROL cement ISIS 2013 policy Control CONTROLS_replacement_cementISIS_2016
cr_17AUG2010 0 Controls for cement plants based on 2013 ISIS policy case

PROJECTION 2005 to 2030 ag emissions Projecti

on PROJECTION_2005cs_2030_ag_09FEB2011 0 Projection factors for agriculture based on animal population stats.

PROJECTION LMWC 2005cr to 2016cr Projecti

on PROJECTION_2005cr_2016cr_LMWC_29J

UL2010 0 Projection factors for Solid and Liquid Municipal

Waste Combustors.

PROJECTION TR1 comments 2005cs to 20XXcs

- ptnonipm Projecti

on PROJECTION_2005cs_20XX_TR1_ptnonip
m_01FEB2011 0 Projection factors derived from Transport Rule

comments.

PROJECTION aircraft 2005cs to 2030 JAN2010

FAATAF Projecti

on PROJECTION_2005cs_2030_aircraft_JAN20
10_based_FAATAF_10FEB2011 0 Projection factors for aircraft derived from the FAA Terminal Area Forecast System.

PROJECTION cement ISIS 2013 policy Projecti

on PROJECTION_cementISIS_2016cr_17AUG2

010 0 Projection factors that implement the 2013 ISIS policy case for cement. PROJECTION refueling 2005cs to 2030cs_hdghg_ref Projecti

on PROJECTION_2005cs_2030cs_hdghg_ref_o nroad_refueling_04FEB2011 0 Projection factors for gasoline stage 2 refueling.

Table D -2. Datasets used to Create HDGHG 2030 Inventories for Nonpoint Sources

Control Program Name Type Dataset Version Description

CONTROL REPLACE NY

SIP 2005cr to 2016cr Control CONTROLS_replacement_NYSIP_O3_SC
C_2016cr_26AUG2010 0 Controls that reflect enforceable controls for NOx and VOC from the

New York ozone SIP.

CONTROL RICE 2016cr_05b Control CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_2016cr_

21SEP2010 1 Controls for 2014 and 2016 that represent three separate RICE

NESHAPs

CONTROL RICE SO2 2014cs_05b Control CONTROLS_replacement_RICE_SO2_20
14cs_05JAN2011 0 SO2 reductions from the Ultra

- low Sulfur Diesel requirement for CI engines

CONTROL SULF rules: ME, NY, NJ 2018 and beyond Control CONTROLS_SULF_rules_2018_and_beyo
nd_03FEB2011 0 SO2 reductions due to state sulfur content rules for fuel oil.

CONTROL TR1 Final CONTROL packet: 2021 Control CONTROLS_TR1_2021_09FEB2011 0 Controls for TCEQ oil and gas and non

- ISIS related cement controls.

PROJECTION 2005 to 2030
ag sector Projection PROJECTION_2005cs_2030_ag_09FEB20

11 0 Projection factors for agriculture based on animal population stats.

PROJECTION RWC and

landfills 2005 to 2030 Projection PROJECTION_2005cs_2030cs_RWC_land
fills_08FEB2011 0 Projection factors for residential wood combustion and landfills. PROJECTION refueling 2005cs to 2030cs_hdghg_ref Projection PROJECTION_2005cs_2030cs_hdghg_ref _onroad_refueling_04FEB2011 0 Projection factors for gasoline stage 2 refueling.