1

Technical Support Document: Calculating Benefit Per-Ton estimates

Overview

The estimates of the full attainment PM2.5 co-benefits in the final Ozone Regulatory Impact 

Analysis are a composite of the benefits of the modeled attainment scenario and benefits 

calculated using benefit per-ton metrics. This technical support document (TSD) describes the 

steps we took to calculate the benefit per-ton metrics that were used as the basis for estimating 

the PM2.5 co-benefits. This document focuses specifically on the steps followed to calculate the 

benefit per ton metrics and makes extensive reference to previous documents that describe the air 

quality modeling data that provided the inputs to these benefit estimates. 

Summary of Calculation Steps

The basic calculation steps were as follows:

1. Model the national changes in ambient PM2.5associated with 25%, 50% and 75% 

reductions in PM2.5 precursors from various classes of industrial sources 

2. Input the changes in air quality to the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis 

Program (BenMAP) and estimate monetized benefit estimates of these air quality

improvements1

3. Divide the total monetized benefit by the total emission reduction

Below we provide an expanded discussion of each of these three steps.

Generating Modeled PM2.5 Concentrations

EPA employed a Response Surface Model (RSM) to generate estimated PM2.5 concentrations. 

The RSM uses advanced statistical techniquesto characterize the relationship between a very

complex air quality model such as CMAQ and input parameters in a highly economical 

manner.The RSM is simply a reduced-form prediction model that uses statistical correlation 

structures to approximate model functionsthrough the design ofcomplex multidimensionalexperiments. Additional technical detail regarding the model may be found in the 

technical support document for the PM2.5 RIA.2

In this version of the PM2.5 RSM, EPA selected 12 emission control factors based on precursor 

emission type and source category. The selection of factors was based on three fundamental 

areas:

1 Abt Associates, Incorporated. Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (Version 2.4). Prepared for 

Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Air Benefits and Cost group. 

Research Triangle Park, NC. 2005. 

2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, February 2006. Technical Support Document for the Proposed PM 

NAAQS Rule, Response Surface Modeling, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, 

NC (Docket # OAR_2001_0017_0770).
2

1. type of precursor emission (NOx, SOx, NH3, POC, PEC, or VOC), 

2. emission source category (EGU point sources, NonEGU point sources, area sources, 

agricultural sources, nonroad sources, and mobile sources)

3. location of urban areas contributing to residual PM2.5 after implementation of the Clean 

Air Interstate Rule in 2015 and geographically distinct in contribution to sources of PM2.5 

concentrations.

This version of the PM2.5 RSM uses the 2015 CAIR inventory and included the following 12 

source pollutant factors:

1. NOx EGU = NOx IPM EGU point source emissions

2. NOx NonEGU Point and Area = NOx IPM Non-EGU point source, area source, and 

agricultural source emissions 

3. NOx Mobile = NOx nonroad source and mobile source emissions

4. SOx EGU = SOx IPM EGU point source emissions

5. SOx NonEGU Point = SOx IPM Non-EGU point source emissions

6. SOx Area = SOx area source and agricultural source emissions 

7. NH3Area = Ammonia area source and agricultural source emissions 

8. NH3 Mobile = Ammonianon-road source and mobile source sources

9. POC/PEC Point (EGU and NonEGU) = Elemental carbon and organic carbon IPM EGU 

point source and IPM Non-EGU point source emissions

10. POC/PEC Mobile = Elemental carbon and organic carbon nonroad source and mobile 

source emissions

11. POC/PEC Area= Elemental carbon and organic carbon area source and agricultural 

source emissions

12. VOC All = Volatile organic carbon IPM EGU point source, IPM Non-EGU point source, 

area source, agricultural source, nonroad source, and mobile source emissions

One of the chief analytical benefits of the RSM is that it can model the change in air quality

resulting from a change in emissions from any given source/pollutant factor while holding all 

other factors constant. For, example, the RSM can estimate the improvement in PM2.5 air quality

resulting from a 50% reduction in area source NH3 while holding other emissions constant. This 

ability to hold other emissions constant is essential to the process of creating benefit per ton 

estimates that are specific to each source/pollutant combination. 

To generate estimates of changes in air quality associated with emission reductions in each 

source/pollutant combination, we simulated a 25%, 50% and 75% reduction in each of the 12 

factors, each time holding all other factors constant; this step generated 36 different air quality 

modeling runs. For each modeling run, the RSM produces 36 km CMAQ air quality grids 

suitable for input to the BenMAP model for subsequent generation of benefits estimates.

Estimating Monetary Value of Human Health Benefits

We used the BenMAP model to estimate changes in human health resulting from each of these 

modeling scenarios. The benefits assessment used techniques, health impact functions and 
3

valuation functions that were consistent with the Regulatory Impact Analysis that supported the 

PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards.3 Readers interested in a comprehensive 

discussion of these methods and functions may refer to chapter 5 of this document. 

The BenMAP model produced estimates of the change in the incidence of health effects and 

estimated a monetary value for the modeled air quality change in each of the 12 source/pollutant 

combinations. Consistent with the PM2.5 NAAQS RIA, we estimated total benefits for each 

modeling scenario using two different PM2.5 mortality functions: Pope et al (2002),Laden et. al 

(2006) and each of the 12 Expert Functions, at 3% and 7% discount rates. We developed these 

estimates for two future years: 2015 and 2030. We chose 2015 because it was the year in which 

the RSM-derived air quality changes were estimated to occur. We chose 2030 to produce benefit 

per-ton estimates that could be used to estimate the PM2.5 co-benefits of attaining the selected 

and alternate ozone standards in San Joaquin and South Coast in 2030. Considering alternate 

years affects the estimated population exposed, which in turn effects the total benefit estimate.

Calculating the benefit per ton estimates

Having modeled the PM2.5 air quality change and estimated the total valuation for each scenario, 

the final step was to estimate the benefit per ton of PM2.5 precursor abated. This calculation step 

involved simply dividing each valuation estimate by its corresponding reduction in PM2.5

precursor tons abated. For example, in a given scenario we reduced emissions by 1,000 tons and 

benefits were $2,000,000 then the benefit per ton would be $2,000. 

Results

Table 1 through table 4 below summarize the benefit per ton estimates for each of the 36 

scenarios.

3 U.S. EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis for the PM2.5 NAAQS. 2006. 
4

Table 1: Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2015 (3% Discount Rate)

Source/Pollutant Combination % Reduction Pope et al. Laden et al. Expert A Expert B Expert C

25% $251,001 $536,416 $760,305 $586,982 $580,238

50% $245,113 $522,275 $762,716 $589,242 $582,534

Carbon Area

75% $239,852 $509,527 $764,581 $591,097 $584,434

25% $181,715 $388,988 $579,360 $445,831 $441,650

50% $179,580 $383,999 $582,718 $448,510 $444,315

Carbon Mobile

75% $176,887 $377,770 $585,660 $450,872 $446,664

25% $153,593 $330,219 $456,061 $352,038 $347,625

50% $153,686 $330,019 $461,833 $356,597 $352,134

Carbon EGU & Non-EGU

75% $152,924 $327,952 $467,272 $360,895 $356,384

25% $12,809 $27,435 $39,221 $30,250 $29,910

50% $12,901 $27,578 $40,642 $31,366 $31,004

NH3 Area

75% $12,960 $27,651 $42,016 $32,450 $32,066

25% $29,108 $62,378 $74,722 $58,088 $57,078

50% $32,049 $68,633 $83,195 $64,664 $63,561

NH3 Mobile

75% $34,987 $74,875 $91,559 $71,160 $69,965

25% $2,681 $5,733 $8,596 $6,617 $6,553

50% $3,240 $6,931 $10,196 $7,857 $7,774

Nox EGU

75% $3,802 $8,135 $11,788 $9,090 $8,990

25% $4,357 $9,350 $12,427 $9,630 $9,480

50% $4,754 $10,190 $13,588 $10,534 $10,369

Nox Mobile

75% $5,133 $10,989 $14,730 $11,424 $11,245

25% $2,599 $5,578 $7,535 $5,821 $5,746

50% $2,956 $6,342 $8,568 $6,621 $6,534

Nox NEGU

75% $3,311 $7,100 $9,592 $7,415 $7,317

25% $13,200 $28,264 $45,177 $34,611 $34,410

50% $13,735 $29,407 $46,942 $35,974 $35,758

Sox Area

75% $14,171 $30,327 $48,673 $37,313 $37,081

25% $25,214 $53,985 $82,355 $63,437 $62,785

50% $23,314 $49,676 $83,646 $64,474 $63,805

Sox EGU

75% $21,104 $44,718 $84,856 $65,450 $64,763

25% $15,863 $33,944 $53,892 $41,361 $41,061

50% $15,672 $33,477 $55,134 $42,331 $42,016

Sox NEGU

75% $15,503 $33,056 $56,337 $43,276 $42,943

25% $339 $725 $1,092 $841 $833

50% $426 $912 $1,341 $1,034 $1,022

VOC

75% $512 $1,096 $1,588 $1,225 $1,211
5

Table 1 Continued: Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2015 (3% Discount Rate)

Source/Pollutant 

Combination

% 

Reduction Expert D Expert E Expert F

Expert 

G Expert H Expert I Expert J Expert K Expert L

25% $411,799 $939,959 $530,231 $348,590 $437,771 $574,370 $469,245 $117,910 $427,151

50% $413,612 $942,075 $532,430 $349,944 $439,718 $576,566 $471,289 $118,097 $428,994

Carbon Area

75% $415,170 $943,500 $534,274 $351,093 $441,388 $578,371 $473,029 $118,269 $430,562

25% $313,015 $716,951 $402,850 $264,875 $332,821 $437,209 $356,854 $87,249 $321,096

50% $314,924 $720,884 $405,304 $266,422 $334,864 $439,824 $359,040 $87,595 $323,064

Carbon Mobile

75% $316,611 $724,298 $407,472 $267,782 $336,670 $442,127 $360,971 $87,879 $324,801

25% $246,335 $564,407 $317,462 $208,430 $261,931 $344,128 $280,855 $67,400 $256,301

50% $249,580 $571,348 $321,609 $211,141 $265,384 $348,575 $284,545 $68,257 $259,698

Carbon EGU & 

Non-EGU

75% $252,634 $577,878 $325,517 $213,682 $268,635 $352,765 $288,022 $69,033 $262,894

25% $21,209 $48,522 $27,298 $17,952 $22,549 $29,609 $24,175 $5,835 $21,936

50% $21,989 $50,257 $28,307 $18,606 $23,379 $30,690 $25,064 $6,044 $22,756

NH3 Area

75% $22,746 $51,931 $29,286 $19,240 $24,185 $31,738 $25,927 $6,246 $23,552

25% $40,599 $92,353 $52,245 $34,434 $43,136 $56,510 $46,215 $12,347 $43,373

50% $45,211 $102,801 $58,178 $38,336 $48,038 $62,925 $51,466 $13,674 $48,231

NH3 Mobile

75% $49,769 $113,106 $64,041 $42,193 $52,882 $69,262 $56,656 $14,986 $53,032

25% $4,645 $10,638 $5,971 $3,932 $4,939 $6,487 $5,295 $1,287 $4,765

50% $5,512 $12,617 $7,088 $4,667 $5,861 $7,696 $6,283 $1,534 $5,677

Nox EGU

75% $6,375 $14,585 $8,200 $5,397 $6,778 $8,899 $7,266 $1,780 $6,584

25% $6,726 $15,373 $8,657 $5,696 $7,150 $9,385 $7,665 $1,926 $7,062

50% $7,360 $16,802 $9,472 $6,232 $7,824 $10,265 $8,386 $2,113 $7,729

Nox Mobile

75% $7,984 $18,205 $10,274 $6,760 $8,487 $11,131 $9,096 $2,297 $8,386

25% $4,075 $9,324 $5,245 $3,451 $4,332 $5,688 $4,644 $1,155 $4,255

50% $4,635 $10,600 $5,966 $3,925 $4,928 $6,469 $5,282 $1,316 $4,843

Nox NEGU

75% $5,191 $11,864 $6,682 $4,395 $5,518 $7,243 $5,915 $1,475 $5,427

25% $24,358 $55,941 $31,297 $20,600 $25,905 $34,064 $27,783 $6,643 $24,626

50% $25,314 $58,119 $32,529 $21,407 $26,921 $35,398 $28,873 $6,903 $25,615

Sox Area

75% $26,252 $60,254 $33,739 $22,199 $27,920 $36,707 $29,943 $7,158 $26,586

25% $44,482 $101,884 $57,280 $37,615 $47,303 $62,148 $50,723 $11,997 $45,899

50% $45,208 $103,402 $58,225 $38,202 $48,081 $63,149 $51,557 $12,130 $46,667

Sox EGU

75% $45,889 $104,817 $59,115 $38,748 $48,811 $64,088 $52,339 $12,241 $47,389

25% $29,075 $66,713 $37,402 $24,590 $30,921 $40,647 $33,160 $7,866 $29,545

50% $29,752 $68,230 $38,279 $25,156 $31,642 $41,590 $33,934 $8,037 $30,252

Sox NEGU

75% $30,411 $69,696 $39,133 $25,706 $32,344 $42,506 $34,686 $8,205 $30,942

25% $590 $1,352 $760 $499 $627 $824 $673 $168 $604

50% $725 $1,659 $934 $613 $770 $1,012 $826 $206 $745

VOC

75% $858 $1,965 $1,106 $727 $913 $1,198 $978 $244 $885
6

Table 2: Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2015 (7% Discount Rate)

Source/Pollutant Combination % Reduction Pope et al. Laden et al. Expert A Expert B Expert C

25% $228,199 $485,259 $686,905 $530,801 $524,727

Carbon Area 50% $222,867 $472,494 $689,048 $532,808 $526,766

75% $218,105 $460,988 $690,704 $534,455 $528,454

25% $165,207 $351,887 $523,347 $403,083 $399,318

Carbon Mobile 50% $163,273 $347,384 $526,361 $405,486 $401,708

75% $160,837 $341,763 $529,000 $407,603 $403,813

25% $139,534 $298,613 $411,953 $318,264 $314,289

Carbon EGU & Non-EGU 50% $139,627 $298,443 $417,162 $322,380 $318,361

75% $138,947 $296,587 $422,066 $326,257 $322,195

25% $11,643 $24,816 $35,431 $27,351 $27,045

NH3 Area 50% $11,728 $24,948 $36,713 $28,359 $28,033

75% $11,784 $25,015 $37,954 $29,338 $28,992

25% $26,457 $56,422 $67,540 $52,558 $51,649

NH3 Mobile 50% $29,130 $62,080 $75,195 $58,506 $57,512

75% $31,801 $67,726 $82,752 $64,380 $63,304

25% $2,438 $5,187 $7,765 $5,984 $5,925

Nox EGU 50% $2,947 $6,271 $9,211 $7,105 $7,030

75% $3,457 $7,359 $10,650 $8,220 $8,129

25% $3,960 $8,457 $11,228 $8,709 $8,573

Nox Mobile 50% $4,320 $9,216 $12,277 $9,526 $9,378

75% $4,665 $9,939 $13,308 $10,331 $10,170

25% $2,362 $5,045 $6,808 $5,264 $5,196

Nox NEGU 50% $2,686 $5,736 $7,741 $5,988 $5,909

75% $3,009 $6,422 $8,666 $6,706 $6,617

25% $12,002 $25,569 $40,802 $31,285 $31,105

Sox Area 50% $12,487 $26,602 $42,395 $32,517 $32,323

75% $12,884 $27,435 $43,959 $33,727 $33,518

25% $22,918 $48,831 $74,383 $57,343 $56,757

Sox EGU 50% $21,203 $44,946 $75,541 $58,274 $57,671

75% $19,207 $40,474 $76,625 $59,147 $58,528

25% $14,424 $30,709 $48,675 $37,388 $37,118

Sox NEGU 50% $14,253 $30,289 $49,794 $38,263 $37,979

75% $14,101 $29,911 $50,879 $39,115 $38,816

25% $308 $656 $987 $761 $753

VOC 50% $387 $825 $1,211 $935 $924

75% $466 $992 $1,434 $1,108 $1,095
7

Table 2 Continued: Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2015 (7% Discount Rate)

Source/Pollutant 

Combination

% 

Reduction Expert D Expert E Expert F

Expert 

G Expert H Expert I Expert J Expert K Expert L

25% $373,022 $848,711 $479,688 $316,093 $396,414 $519,443 $424,761 $108,330 $386,849

Carbon Area 50% $374,626 $850,588 $481,640 $317,283 $398,139 $521,392 $426,573 $108,469 $388,480

75% $376,006 $851,848 $483,277 $318,294 $399,619 $522,993 $428,117 $108,601 $389,868

25% $283,462 $647,269 $364,372 $240,104 $301,301 $395,318 $322,946 $80,125 $290,740

Carbon Mobile 50% $285,171 $650,801 $366,572 $241,488 $303,130 $397,663 $324,904 $80,426 $292,503

75% $286,681 $653,865 $368,515 $242,703 $304,746 $399,726 $326,634 $80,672 $294,057

25% $223,062 $509,535 $287,123 $188,923 $237,109 $311,140 $254,152 $61,904 $232,038

50% $225,995 $515,796 $290,868 $191,374 $240,229 $315,155 $257,487 $62,685 $235,107 Carbon EGU & 

Non-EGU

75% $228,751 $521,684 $294,394 $193,669 $243,163 $318,935 $260,624 $63,390 $237,992

25% $19,209 $43,809 $24,693 $16,275 $20,416 $26,774 $21,880 $5,362 $19,864

NH3 Area 50% $19,914 $45,373 $25,604 $16,867 $21,166 $27,750 $22,683 $5,553 $20,604

75% $20,598 $46,883 $26,488 $17,440 $21,894 $28,697 $23,462 $5,737 $21,324

25% $36,807 $83,419 $47,295 $31,255 $39,092 $51,137 $41,865 $11,361 $39,305

NH3 Mobile 50% $40,985 $92,854 $52,664 $34,793 $43,531 $56,939 $46,619 $12,581 $43,705

75% $45,114 $102,159 $57,969 $38,291 $47,919 $62,671 $51,317 $13,787 $48,053

25% $4,207 $9,605 $5,401 $3,565 $4,472 $5,866 $4,793 $1,183 $4,315

Nox EGU 50% $4,993 $11,392 $6,412 $4,231 $5,306 $6,960 $5,687 $1,410 $5,141

75% $5,775 $13,169 $7,418 $4,894 $6,137 $8,048 $6,577 $1,636 $5,962

25% $6,094 $13,881 $7,833 $5,166 $6,475 $8,488 $6,939 $1,770 $6,395

Nox Mobile 50% $6,667 $15,172 $8,569 $5,652 $7,085 $9,284 $7,591 $1,941 $6,999

75% $7,233 $16,438 $9,295 $6,130 $7,686 $10,067 $8,235 $2,111 $7,595

25% $3,692 $8,419 $4,745 $3,129 $3,923 $5,144 $4,204 $1,061 $3,853

Nox NEGU 50% $4,199 $9,571 $5,397 $3,559 $4,462 $5,850 $4,782 $1,209 $4,386

75% $4,702 $10,713 $6,045 $3,986 $4,997 $6,551 $5,355 $1,356 $4,915

25% $22,051 $50,497 $28,300 $18,667 $23,444 $30,793 $25,136 $6,096 $22,293

Sox Area 50% $22,916 $52,462 $29,414 $19,397 $24,364 $31,998 $26,121 $6,334 $23,187

75% $23,765 $54,389 $30,508 $20,114 $25,267 $33,181 $27,089 $6,567 $24,066

25% $40,272 $91,971 $51,799 $34,087 $42,813 $56,183 $45,893 $11,014 $41,548

Sox EGU 50% $40,921 $93,334 $52,646 $34,612 $43,509 $57,080 $46,639 $11,129 $42,236

75% $41,529 $94,603 $53,441 $35,098 $44,161 $57,920 $47,339 $11,225 $42,880

25% $26,323 $60,222 $33,822 $22,284 $27,985 $36,745 $30,002 $7,221 $26,746

Sox NEGU 50% $26,934 $61,589 $34,613 $22,794 $28,636 $37,596 $30,700 $7,377 $27,384

75% $27,529 $62,911 $35,384 $23,291 $29,269 $38,422 $31,379 $7,529 $28,007

25% $534 $1,221 $688 $453 $568 $745 $609 $154 $547

VOC 50% $656 $1,498 $845 $556 $697 $915 $748 $189 $675

75% $777 $1,774 $1,001 $659 $826 $1,084 $886 $224 $802
8

Table 3: Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2030 (3% Discount Rate)

Source/Pollutant Combination % Reduction Pope et al. Laden et al. Expert A Expert B Expert C

25% $374,102 $806,534 $1,148,838 $885,380 $875,257

Carbon Area 50% $365,490 $785,694 $1,152,611 $888,915 $878,847

75% $357,521 $766,298 $1,155,533 $891,814 $881,815

25% $270,945 $585,078 $876,843 $673,635 $667,342

Carbon Mobile 50% $267,847 $577,787 $881,847 $677,638 $671,324

75% $263,826 $568,439 $886,224 $681,162 $674,833

25% $226,513 $490,917 $682,398 $525,889 $519,312

Carbon EGU & Non-EGU 50% $226,729 $490,822 $691,088 $532,747 $526,094

75% $225,690 $487,973 $699,291 $539,224 $532,500

25% $18,799 $40,609 $58,096 $44,749 $44,232

NH3 Area 50% $18,949 $40,860 $60,234 $46,427 $45,878

75% $19,055 $41,012 $62,304 $48,057 $47,476

25% $43,186 $93,336 $112,541 $87,313 $85,799

NH3 Mobile 50% $47,554 $102,707 $125,297 $97,195 $95,541

75% $51,916 $112,050 $137,888 $106,956 $105,166

25% $3,954 $8,524 $12,898 $9,913 $9,817

Nox EGU 50% $4,784 $10,319 $15,302 $11,773 $11,649

75% $5,618 $12,121 $17,694 $13,622 $13,471

25% $6,509 $14,080 $18,741 $14,503 $14,272

Nox Mobile 50% $7,107 $15,358 $20,507 $15,876 $15,623

75% $7,678 $16,571 $22,243 $17,228 $16,953

25% $3,857 $8,346 $11,328 $8,738 $8,624

Nox NEGU 50% $4,390 $9,496 $12,886 $9,943 $9,812

75% $4,920 $10,638 $14,431 $11,139 $10,990

25% $19,670 $42,486 $68,134 $52,126 $51,818

Sox Area 50% $20,463 $44,195 $70,772 $54,161 $53,831

75% $21,110 $45,573 $73,360 $56,160 $55,807

25% $37,315 $80,580 $123,300 $94,841 $93,856

Sox EGU 50% $34,477 $74,125 $125,262 $96,420 $95,409

75% $31,155 $66,648 $127,106 $97,910 $96,874

25% $23,605 $50,959 $81,155 $62,196 $61,739

Sox NEGU 50% $23,310 $50,241 $83,028 $63,659 $63,179

75% $23,064 $49,630 $84,843 $65,083 $64,577

25% $501 $1,080 $1,635 $1,257 $1,244

VOC 50% $630 $1,361 $2,009 $1,546 $1,529

75% $759 $1,638 $2,380 $1,833 $1,812
9

Table 3 Continued: Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2030 (3% Discount Rate)

Source/Pollutant 

Combination

% 

Reduction

Expert 

D Expert E Expert F

Expert 

G Expert H Expert I Expert J Expert K Expert L

25% $619,350 $1,421,795 $799,196 $523,320 $658,809 $866,344 $706,626 $172,712 $642,217

Carbon Area 50% $622,201 $1,425,132 $802,637 $525,475 $661,863 $869,783 $709,828 $173,097 $645,113

75% $624,645 $1,427,399 $805,517 $527,299 $664,477 $872,605 $712,550 $173,438 $647,570

25% $471,644 $1,086,166 $608,238 $398,407 $501,776 $660,585 $538,338 $128,135 $483,593

Carbon Mobile 50% $474,509 $1,092,010 $611,910 $400,734 $504,839 $664,493 $541,613 $128,676 $486,542

75% $477,041 $1,097,073 $615,152 $402,780 $507,548 $667,931 $544,506 $129,127 $489,144

25% $366,975 $845,347 $473,914 $309,967 $390,430 $514,053 $418,891 $97,812 $381,639

50% $371,848 $855,805 $480,149 $314,034 $395,617 $520,741 $424,437 $99,081 $386,738 Carbon EGU & 

Non-EGU

75% $376,445 $865,661 $486,038 $317,858 $400,513 $527,056 $429,673 $100,239 $391,549

25% $31,279 $71,944 $40,351 $26,429 $33,274 $43,784 $35,694 $8,398 $32,372

NH3 Area 50% $32,449 $74,556 $41,866 $27,410 $34,520 $45,410 $37,029 $8,708 $33,603

75% $33,587 $77,080 $43,339 $28,362 $35,731 $46,988 $38,327 $9,007 $34,800

25% $60,823 $139,264 $78,471 $51,479 $64,668 $84,937 $69,334 $17,983 $64,953

NH3 Mobile 50% $67,732 $155,010 $87,382 $57,315 $72,016 $94,578 $77,212 $19,919 $72,230

75% $74,562 $170,542 $96,187 $63,082 $79,280 $104,101 $84,998 $21,834 $79,420

25% $6,940 $15,978 $8,941 $5,865 $7,383 $9,718 $7,920 $1,879 $7,114

Nox EGU 50% $8,237 $18,954 $10,615 $6,961 $8,762 $11,531 $9,399 $2,239 $8,477

75% $9,527 $21,912 $12,281 $8,051 $10,134 $13,335 $10,871 $2,597 $9,833

25% $10,098 $23,207 $13,026 $8,536 $10,741 $14,128 $11,521 $2,823 $10,609

Nox Mobile 50% $11,057 $25,383 $14,262 $9,346 $11,761 $15,465 $12,614 $3,099 $11,619

75% $12,003 $27,518 $15,480 $10,144 $12,767 $16,780 $13,692 $3,372 $12,615

25% $6,099 $14,031 $7,867 $5,156 $6,488 $8,537 $6,960 $1,686 $6,368

Nox NEGU 50% $6,940 $15,959 $8,953 $5,866 $7,382 $9,713 $7,919 $1,922 $7,252

75% $7,775 $17,869 $10,030 $6,571 $8,270 $10,879 $8,871 $2,156 $8,129

25% $36,586 $84,444 $47,093 $30,892 $38,930 $51,294 $41,776 $9,746 $36,991

Sox Area 50% $38,009 $87,702 $48,931 $32,091 $40,445 $53,285 $43,401 $10,124 $38,463

75% $39,408 $90,897 $50,737 $33,269 $41,933 $55,240 $44,997 $10,496 $39,909

25% $66,319 $152,681 $85,573 $55,989 $70,564 $92,898 $75,710 $17,447 $68,447

Sox EGU 50% $67,429 $154,986 $87,013 $56,889 $71,752 $94,422 $76,981 $17,663 $69,620

75% $68,476 $157,141 $88,373 $57,733 $72,873 $95,859 $78,181 $17,851 $70,727

25% $43,603 $100,555 $56,200 $36,816 $46,395 $61,113 $49,783 $11,508 $44,313

Sox NEGU 50% $44,623 $102,844 $57,522 $37,668 $47,482 $62,535 $50,949 $11,765 $45,379

75% $45,615 $105,057 $58,810 $38,497 $48,540 $63,915 $52,083 $12,016 $46,418

25% $879 $2,025 $1,135 $743 $935 $1,231 $1,003 $244 $900

VOC 50% $1,081 $2,488 $1,395 $913 $1,150 $1,513 $1,233 $300 $1,111

75% $1,281 $2,948 $1,654 $1,083 $1,363 $1,794 $1,462 $356 $1,321
10

Table 4: Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2030 (7% Discount Rate)

Source/Pollutant Combination % Reduction Pope et al. Laden et al. Expert A Expert B Expert C

25% $339,651 $729,123 $1,037,420 $800,136 $791,019

Carbon Area 50% $331,858 $710,316 $1,040,780 $803,282 $794,215

75% $324,649 $692,815 $1,043,382 $805,862 $796,856

25% $245,995 $528,920 $791,700 $608,680 $603,012

Carbon Mobile 50% $243,192 $522,341 $796,194 $612,272 $606,586

75% $239,557 $513,907 $800,122 $615,432 $609,731

25% $205,525 $443,661 $616,119 $475,159 $469,235

Carbon EGU & Non-EGU 50% $205,731 $443,588 $623,958 $481,347 $475,355

75% $204,803 $441,029 $631,354 $487,189 $481,133

25% $17,066 $36,709 $52,459 $40,437 $39,972

NH3 Area 50% $17,204 $36,938 $54,387 $41,952 $41,458

75% $17,302 $37,078 $56,255 $43,423 $42,899

25% $39,202 $84,370 $101,667 $78,945 $77,582

NH3 Mobile 50% $43,168 $92,841 $113,186 $87,877 $86,387

75% $47,127 $101,287 $124,558 $96,699 $95,086

25% $3,591 $7,708 $11,647 $8,959 $8,872

Nox EGU 50% $4,345 $9,330 $13,818 $10,639 $10,527

75% $5,102 $10,959 $15,977 $12,311 $12,175

25% $5,908 $12,727 $16,925 $13,108 $12,900

Nox Mobile 50% $6,450 $13,882 $18,519 $14,349 $14,121

75% $6,969 $14,979 $20,087 $15,570 $15,323

25% $3,501 $7,544 $10,230 $7,897 $7,794

Nox NEGU 50% $3,985 $8,583 $11,637 $8,986 $8,868

75% $4,466 $9,615 $13,032 $10,067 $9,933

25% $17,860 $38,409 $61,509 $47,091 $46,815

Sox Area 50% $18,579 $39,954 $63,890 $48,930 $48,632

75% $19,167 $41,200 $66,227 $50,735 $50,417

25% $33,872 $72,839 $111,315 $85,683 $84,796

Sox EGU 50% $31,311 $67,020 $113,077 $87,100 $86,189

75% $28,311 $60,278 $114,730 $88,435 $87,501

25% $21,434 $46,070 $73,266 $56,191 $55,779

Sox NEGU 50% $21,170 $45,425 $74,954 $57,510 $57,077

75% $20,949 $44,876 $76,590 $58,794 $58,338

25% $455 $977 $1,476 $1,136 $1,124

VOC 50% $572 $1,231 $1,814 $1,397 $1,381

75% $689 $1,481 $2,149 $1,657 $1,637
11

Table 4 Continued: Estimated PM2.5 Benefit per Ton for the Year 2030 (7% Discount Rate)

Source/Pollutant 

Combination

% 

Reduction Expert D Expert E

Expert 

F

Expert 

G Expert H Expert I Expert J Expert K Expert L

25% $560,535 $1,283,260 $722,514 $474,045 $596,073 $782,991 $639,140 $158,269 $581,130

Carbon Area 50% $563,065 $1,286,228 $725,576 $475,948 $598,787 $786,050 $641,987 $158,578 $583,701

75% $565,235 $1,288,239 $728,138 $477,560 $601,110 $788,561 $644,407 $158,854 $585,883

25% $426,756 $980,227 $549,780 $360,795 $453,895 $596,927 $486,825 $117,373 $437,518

Carbon Mobile 50% $429,323 $985,478 $553,074 $362,877 $456,640 $600,433 $489,761 $117,847 $440,161

75% $431,590 $990,024 $555,980 $364,706 $459,065 $603,516 $492,353 $118,240 $442,490

25% $332,032 $762,880 $428,347 $280,688 $353,157 $464,498 $378,790 $89,610 $345,240

50% $336,434 $772,311 $433,975 $284,363 $357,841 $470,535 $383,798 $90,765 $349,844 Carbon EGU & 

Non-EGU

75% $340,582 $781,195 $439,287 $287,815 $362,259 $476,230 $388,522 $91,816 $354,185

25% $28,306 $64,931 $36,476 $23,937 $30,102 $39,569 $32,282 $7,698 $29,291

NH3 Area 50% $29,363 $67,287 $37,844 $24,824 $31,228 $41,037 $33,488 $7,980 $30,402

75% $30,391 $69,563 $39,174 $25,685 $32,322 $42,460 $34,659 $8,253 $31,483

25% $55,087 $125,735 $70,981 $46,671 $58,550 $76,806 $62,753 $16,503 $58,807

NH3 Mobile 50% $61,341 $139,948 $79,038 $51,958 $65,199 $85,520 $69,879 $18,278 $65,391

75% $67,523 $153,967 $86,999 $57,183 $71,772 $94,127 $76,923 $20,033 $71,898

25% $6,281 $14,421 $8,083 $5,313 $6,680 $8,783 $7,164 $1,722 $6,437

Nox EGU 50% $7,455 $17,107 $9,597 $6,305 $7,928 $10,421 $8,502 $2,052 $7,671

75% $8,622 $19,777 $11,103 $7,293 $9,169 $12,052 $9,833 $2,381 $8,898

25% $9,140 $20,946 $11,777 $7,734 $9,719 $12,770 $10,422 $2,588 $9,600

Nox Mobile 50% $10,009 $22,911 $12,895 $8,467 $10,642 $13,978 $11,411 $2,841 $10,514

75% $10,864 $24,838 $13,996 $9,190 $11,552 $15,167 $12,385 $3,091 $11,415

25% $5,521 $12,664 $7,113 $4,671 $5,870 $7,716 $6,295 $1,546 $5,762

Nox NEGU 50% $6,282 $14,404 $8,094 $5,314 $6,680 $8,779 $7,163 $1,762 $6,562

75% $7,037 $16,128 $9,068 $5,953 $7,483 $9,833 $8,024 $1,976 $7,356

25% $33,096 $76,199 $42,558 $27,967 $35,207 $46,343 $37,770 $8,922 $33,460

Sox Area 50% $34,383 $79,139 $44,219 $29,052 $36,576 $48,141 $39,238 $9,267 $34,791

75% $35,647 $82,021 $45,851 $30,118 $37,921 $49,906 $40,681 $9,607 $36,099

25% $59,995 $137,777 $77,336 $50,691 $63,818 $83,933 $68,452 $15,978 $61,912

Sox EGU 50% $60,989 $139,848 $78,627 $51,496 $64,883 $85,301 $69,592 $16,167 $62,962

75% $61,925 $141,781 $79,845 $52,249 $65,885 $86,587 $70,666 $16,330 $63,952

25% $39,445 $90,739 $50,790 $33,332 $41,959 $55,215 $45,011 $10,539 $40,084

Sox NEGU 50% $40,365 $92,802 $51,982 $34,101 $42,940 $56,497 $46,063 $10,771 $41,046

75% $41,260 $94,796 $53,144 $34,849 $43,894 $57,742 $47,085 $10,999 $41,983

25% $796 $1,828 $1,026 $673 $846 $1,113 $908 $224 $815

VOC 50% $978 $2,246 $1,261 $827 $1,040 $1,368 $1,115 $275 $1,006

75% $1,159 $2,661 $1,495 $981 $1,233 $1,621 $1,322 $326 $1,196
12

Discussion

The benefit per ton estimates above vary according to three factors. The first source of variability

is attributable to the PM2.5 mortality estimate used to calculate total benefits. Consistent with the 

results of the PM2.5 RIA, the PM2.5-related benefits derived using the Laden et al. (2006) 

mortality estimate are roughly double those estimates based on Pope et al. (2002). The PM2.5-

related benefits calculated using the 12 expert-derived functions also vary significantly. 

The second source of variability among the estimates is due to the different potential for a given 

ton of each of the 12 source/sector combinations to form PM2.5 in the atmosphere. For example, 

carbonaceous particles emitted directly from mobile sources tend to have a great potential to 

form PM2.5 in the atmosphere than do volatile organic compounds. As such, the monetized 

benefits of abating a ton of mobile source carbonaceous particles is significantly greater than that 

of reducing a ton of volatile organic compounds. 

Finally, the benefit per ton estimates calculated for a population year of 2030 are significantly 

higher than those calculated for a population year of 2015. This is consistent with the population 

growth estimated in the Woods & Poole projections that BenMAP uses to calculate future-year 

population exposure. 

There are several key limitations and uncertainties associated with these benefit per ton 

estimates:

· These estimates are regional averages. As such, they do not reflect any spatial 

variability in the incremental PM2.5 benefits per ton of PM2.5 precursor abated. For this 

reason, there are special uncertainties incurred when using these metrics to estimate the 

local-scale benefits of emission reductions.

· The benefit per ton metrics contain each of the uncertainties inherent in a PM2.5 

benefits analysis. As discussed in the PM2.5 NAAQS RIA (Table 5.5), there are a variety 

of uncertainties associated with calculating PM benefits; these uncertainties are 

propagated through to the benefit per ton estimates included in this TSD.

· These estimates omit certain benefits categories. Reductions in PM2.5 precursors may 

provide visibility benefits, which are not expressed in the benefit per ton metrics. Certain 

unquantified benefit categories, described fully in the PM2.5 NAAQS RIA are also 

omitted.
13

References

Abt Associates, Incorporated. Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (Version 

2.4). Prepared for Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and 

Standards, Air Benefits and Cost group. Research Triangle Park, NC. 2005.

Industrial Economics, Incorporated (IEc). August 2006. Expanded Expert Judgment 

Assessment of the Concentration-Response Relationship Between PM2.5 Exposure and 

Mortality. Peer Review Draft. Prepared for: Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.

Laden, F., J. Schwartz, F.E. Speizer, and D.W. Dockery. 2006. Reduction in Fine Particulate Air 

Pollution and Mortality. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. 173: 

667-672.

Pope, C.A., III, R.T. Burnett, M.J. Thun, E.E. Calle, D. Krewski, K. Ito, and G.D. Thurston. 

2002. “Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality, and Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate 

Air Pollution.” Journal of the American Medical Association 287:1132-1141.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2006. Final Regulatory Impact Analysis: PM2.5 NAAQS. 

Prepared by Office of Air and Radiation. Available: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/ecas/ria.html [accessed 

10 March 2008].