United States 

Department of 

Agriculture 

Forest Service 

southeastern Forest 

Experiment Station *- 5 

Research Paper 

SE- 24 3 

DYNARIP: 

A Technique for Regional 

Forest Inventory Projection 

and Policy Analysis 

William A. Bechtold 

I Oak-Pine Sapling I I I 

Oak-Pine Seedling Oak-Pine Pole timber 

I 

Oak-Pine Sawtimber 

Pine Sawtimber 

r 

Pine Poletimber Hardwood Seedling 

Pine Sapling Hardwood Sapling 

Pine Seedling 

r 

Pine Nons tocked Hardwood Sawtimber 

FOREST 

w ORGANIZATION 

- 

NONFOREST Fores t Land-Base Changes NONFOREST 

C cn fd a, a, k ri k I 4 0 ; Rate Reverting u F 

a'l4 

Ld NONFOREST 
June 1984 

Southeastern Forest Experiment Station 

200 Weaver Blvd. 

Asheville, North Carolina 2 8804 
DYNARIP: A Technique for Regional 

Forest Inventory Projection 

and Policy Analysis 

William A. Bechtold, Resource Analyst 

Forest Inventory and Analysis 

Asheville, North Carolina 

ABSTRACT 

This paper describes the Dynamic ~egional Inventory 

projection computer model (DYNARIP). DYNARIP is an areabased simulation model, written in the DYNAMO language, 

which projects the state of forest organization over 

time in terms of stand size and broad forest type. The 

model was developed primarily to aid legislators, 

regional planners, forest industry, and resource analysts assess the impacts of regional trends and forest 

policy decisions. The State of Georgia was selected for 

a pilot analysis to demonstrate how the model is built 

and applied. 

DYNARIP is a policy-oriented model capable of tracking all of the treatments and disturbances experienced 

by the forest resources of an entire State or regional 

area. It can also isolate the impact of any one of 27 

man-caused or natural disturbances (including natural 

succession and forest land-base changes). The model is 

driven by empirical rates of change as measured by 

forest inventories between two points in time. A few 

simple controls permit the entry of the user's own perceptions of the future into the model. 

Keywords: Forest policy, forest simulation, forest 

inventory projection, resource evaluation, ecosystem 

dynamics. 

Introduction I. The Core Model 

Dynamic Regional Inventory Projection 

(DYNARIP) is an area-based forest simulation model designed to aid legislators, 

forest industry, regional planners, and 

resource analysts assess the impact of 

forest trends and policy decisions. 

DYNARIP is a policy-oriented model capable of tracking all of the treatments and 

disturbances experienced by the forest 

resources of an entire State or regional 

area. It can also isolate the regional 

effect of any one of 27 treatments or 

natural disturbances. This paper describes how the model works and demonstrates its use through the analysis of a 

forest policy issue of current concern in 

the State of Georgia. 

Neither DYNARIP nor any other model 

is capable of predicting the future. 

Results obtained from such models are 

highly sensitive to basic assumptions. 

The forests of a region experience a 

diverse and independent variety of treatments and natural disturbance:. The 

response of the resource to these disruptions is tremendously complex. In contrast to most forest models, which are 

driven by some form of growth equation 

coupled with numerous assumptions about 

ingrowth, mortality, and timber cut, 

DYNARIP is driven by empirical rates of 

response to treatment or disturbance as 

measured by forest inventories between 

two points in time. The assumptions necessary for the user to make thus become 

simplified to specifying the amount and 

type of acreage experiencing treatment or 

disturbance. The model is designed so the 

user's subjective perceptions can be 

incorporated into the model through the 

manipulation of a few simple controls or 

additional algorithms. If these perceptions are correct, DYNARIP will accurately quantify the future state of forest organization. Perhaps of equal value 

to the specific numbers output by the 

program are the trends and interrelationships that become apparent. 

The DYNARIP core model projects the 

state of forest organization over time in 

terms of acres by broad forest type and 

stand size. Because the empirical rates 

of change driving the model are endemic 

to a given region, a new core model with 

unique rates must be developed for each 

region undergoing analysis. This concept 

has two advantages: Each model is built 

individually from data collected in the 

region to be analyzed, and the empirical 

rates of change are recalibrated each 

time a new inventory is conducted. 

Any forest parameter that can be 

related to a regional forest-type/standsize distribution can be added to the 

core and carried by the simulation. 

DYNARIP is written in the DYNAMO language partly because the types of algorithms developed by Boyce (1980) can be 

used to track such nontimber benefits as 

wildlife habitat and recreation. DYNAMO 

also lends itself to integrating the complex rates of change needed to run a continuous simulation of this type i ugh 

1980; Richardson and Pueh 1981). 

Model Input 

DYNARIP is built with data collected 

during Statewide multiresource inventories. In the Southeast, dorest resource 

data are collected on a 10-year cycle 

from 24,775 permanent sample plots 

located throughout Florida, Georgia, 

North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia (~c~lure and others 1979). ,The 

three main inventory classifications used 

as input to the model are forest type, 

stand size, and primary past treatment or 

disturbance. 

The State of Georgia was selected for 

a pilot analysis to show how the model is 

built and interpreted. Similar analyses 

can be performed for most combinations of 

Survey Units in the Southeast, or for the 

Southeast as a whole. Data used to build 

the Georgia core model were screened from 

the fourth and fifth multiresource inventories of the State night and McClure 

1974; Sheffield and Knight 1984). Fieldwork for the Georgia fifth survey was 
completed in 1982. A period of 10.12 

years separates the two inventories. 

A total of 6,134 permanent plots was 

used to construct the Georgia model. Sample plots were first separated into 

groups representing four types of acreage: 

acres that were forest in 1972 and 

remained forest over the 10-year remeasurement period, acres that were forest at 

the time of the initial inventory but 

were cleared to some nonforest land use 

prior to 1982, nonforest acres planted to 

forest between the two surveys, and nonforest acres thag reverted naturally to 

forest . The last' three categories account 

for forest land-base changes over the 

remeasurement period. 

All plots were further grouped by 

three forest-type classifications (pine, 

oak-pine, and hardwood), and five standsize classifications (nonstocked, seedling, sapling, poletimber, and sawtimber). 

Forest Survey determines forest type on 

the basis of all live trees not overtopped. Pine forest types are given to 

stands in which pines account for more 

than 50 percent of the stocking, oak-pine 

types to stands in which pines make up at 

least 25 but not more than 50 percent of 

live-tree stocking , and hardwood types to 

stands where pines constitute less than 

25 percent of the stocking. In the determinat ion of these three broad ' fores t 

types, the stocking of redcedar, hemlock, 

spruce, and fir is included with the 

pines. Stand size is based on numbers of 

growing-stock stems per acre not overtopped. Seedlings are defined as trees 

less than 1.0 inch d.b.h. and saplings as 

trees between 1.0 and 4.9 inches d.b.h. 

Softwoods between 5.0 and 8.9 inches 

d.b.h. and hardwoods between 5.0 and 10.9 

inches d.b.h. are classed as poletimber. 

Softwoods greater than 8.9 and hardwoods 

greater than 10.9 inches d.b.h. are sawtimber. Seedling through sawtimber stand 

sizes are assigned to whichever grouping 

of tree diameter classes contains the 

plurality of stocking. A nonstocked stand 

size is assigned to stands less than 16.7 

percent stocked with growing-stock trees. 

Forest acres cleared to nonforest over 

the remeasurement period were assigned 

the forest type and stand size recorded 

at the time of the initial (1972) inventory. Nonforest acres planted and 

reverted to forest were assigned the 

forest type and stand size recorded at 

the time of the final (1982) inventory. 

On forest-to-forest acres, the forest 

type - - and stand size at both the initial 

and final inventories were screened from 

plot data. These forest-to-forest plots 

were further ordered by the primary treatment or dis turbance they experienced over 

the remeasurement period. During the 

Georgia inventory, 27 individual treatments and disturbances were recognized by 

Forest Survey. For this analysis, some 

were combined to form 13 treatment/ 

disturbance categories. These could be 

rearranged or further condensed to suit 

individual needs. The 13 categories used 

for this analysis and the Survey treatment/disturbance classes included in them 

are listed below: 1 

1. Natural Succe~sion.~ No treatment 

or disturbance; significant damage from 

weather or other natural destructive 

agents - . 2. Harvesting Followed by Artificial 

Regeneration. Harvesting followed by artificial regeneration. 

3. Harvesting Followed by Natural 

Regeneration. Harvesting followed by 

natural regeneration; harvesting leaving 

seed trees with satisfactory regeneration. 

4. Harvesting Without Regeneration. 

Harvesting without regeneration; harvesting leaving seed trees without satisfactory regeneration. 

5. Highgrading. Removal of selected 

trees resulting in highgrading. 

6. Artificial Regeneration on Forest 

- Land. Artificial regeneration after V site 

preparation; artificial regeneration 

without site preparation. 

7. Other Intermediate Cutti%. Cleaning, release, or other intermediate cutting. 

8. Commercial Thinning. Commercial 

thinning. 

9. Prescribed Burning. Prescribed 

burning. 

'~lthou~h true natural succession 

includes damage from insects and disease, 

these disturbances were kept separate 

because they can be controlled to some 

extent. 
10. --.- Disease Damax. Significant damage 

from disease. 

11. § Damage. Significant damage 

from insects. 

12. Grazing. Grazing or other activity 

that retards or precludes development of 

the understory. 

13. Miscellaneous ~reatments/~isturbances. Turpentining; construction of 

woods roads, fences, firebreaks, or trashpits; salvage cut; clearing or other site 

preparation; precommercial thinning; 

girdling or poisoning of undesirable 

trees; significant damage from wildfire; 

major drainage efforts; major man-caused 

flooding; other significant disturbance. 

All forest-to-forest plots having the 

same initial forest type and stand size 

were arranged under each treatment/disturbance category. Resulting forest types 

and stand sizes as measured by the final 

inventory were then examined to determine 

the effect of each treatment on inventory 

dynamics. A certain percentage of these 

plots retained the same forest type and 

stand size at the time of the final 

inventory, but some had shifted to other 

type-size combinations. 

Figure 1 illustrates this concept for 

stands which were pine poletimber at the 

time of initial inventory and had undergone a commercial thinning over the 

remeasurement period. About 3.9 percent 

were still classified as pine poletimber . 

at the final inventory, 53 percent had 

moved on to pine sawtimber, -and the 

remainder were scattered among several 

other type-size combinations. The dispersion pattern for pine poletimber stands 

experiencing other treatments or disturbances looks entirely different. For 

example, of all the pine poletimber 

stands that experienced harvesting with 

artificial regeneration, none remained in 

poletimber, 60 percent resulted in pine 

seedling, and 37 percent resulted in pine 

sapling stands by the time of the final 

inventory. 

For each of the 13 treatment/disturbance categories, a matrix of empirical 

rates of change among forest type and 

stand-size combinations between the initial and final inventories was calculated 

from the plot data. Everything that happened to the forest resource is built 

into the rates, and it is possible to 

Figure 1. Percentage distribution of forest type and stand-size 

changes experienced over the remeasurement period by pine poletimber stands undergoing commercial thinning, Georgia, 1972-1982. 

. Treatment/Disturhance 8. Commercial. Thinning 

--_ --.- _I_____I.___ 

Nonstocked 

0 

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Sapling Pole timber Sawtimber 

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single out the effect of any of the 27 

disturbances Survey recognizes. In all, 

2,925 empirical rates of change were 

measured from all possible combinations 

(3 initial forest types x 5 initial stand 

sizes x 3 final forest types x 5 final 

stand sizes x 13 treatments/disturbances). 

Biologicial Response to Treatment 

The major premise of DYNARIP is that 

the matrix of type-size changes observed 

under a given primary treatment or disturbance captuTs the regional biological 

response of the forest to that disruption. 

These matrices of empirical rates are 

unique to a given region for a given 

treatment. They are recalibrated each 

time a new inventory is completed. The 

main controlling factor dictating inventory changes between two points in time 

is the number of acres of each type-size 

combination experiencing each treatment 

or disturbance. 

DYNARIP uses this concept to build a 

foundation of empirical rates from recent 

observations upon which the model user 

can interject personal perceptions about 

the future. 

Model Flow Charts 

In this section, a segment of DYNARIP 

is flow-charted to facilitate. a basic 

understanding of how the model works. The 

matrix of change for pine poletimber 

stands that experience treatment 8 (commercial thinning) was arbitrarily chosen 

for demonstration. A detailed listing of 

the program along with additional technical notes is provided in Appendix A. 

Figure 2 illustrates how the initial 

pine poletimber inventory is broken down. 

The initial inventory is first separated 

at time 0 into pine poletimber acres that 

are to be cleared to nonforest and into 

pine poletimber acres that will remain in 

a forest condition (not necessarily pine 

poletimber) over the model's 10-year timespan. The cleared acres are then transferred to a level equation that keeps 

track of pine poletimber land-base 

changes. Level equations simply calculate 

the number of acres held in a given category at a particular instant in time. The 

land-base change level will be discussed 

in more detail later. The initial pine 

poletimber acres that are to remain in 

forest for the span of the model are then 

split by the percentage that are to 

experience treatment 8. This amount of 

acreage is then fed into the treatment 8 

matrix of change (fig. 3). Acres enter 

the matrix at a linear rate determined by 

the total number of acres to experience 

treatment 8, divided by the total number 

of iterations in the model timespan. 

As pine poletimber acres move into 

the treatment 8 matrix, some remain in 

pine poletimber, but some are dispersed 

to other forest-type/stand-size levels at 

the rates calculated from the latest 

Survey regional plot data. The bottom 

half of figure 3 illustrates dispersion 

from the treatment 8 pine poletimber 

level. Simultaneously, some of the other 

type-size combinations are also experiencing treatment 8. This, in turn, causes 

some of the acres in those levels to flow 

into the pine poletimber level. The top 

half of figure 3 represents acres converging on the treatment 8 pine poletimber level. At the end of each computational iteration the acres remaining 

in the treatment 8 pine poletimber level 

exemplify the net effect of treatment 8 

on pine poletimber up to that point in 

time . 

Upon completion of an iteration, the 

acreage in the treatment 8 pine poletimber level is added to the pine poletimber levels from the other 12 treatments (fig. 4). This sum, when combined 

with the acres in the pine poletimber 

land-base change level, equals the net 

pine poletimber inventory at that time. 

At the beginning of the model run, 

the acres in the pine poletimber landbase change level are equal to the amount 

of acres that are to be cleared to nonforest over the span of the model. Acres 

flow out of this level at a rate determined by the total acres to be cleared, 

divided by the total number of iterations 

in the model. If this level were not 

being supplemented by nonforest acres 

planted and reverting to pine poletimber, 

it would be exactly zero at the end of 

the model run. However, it is being 

replenished at the rate calculated by the 

sum of planted and reverted acres resulting in pine poletimber, divided by the 

number of model iterations. If the number 

of acres cleared to nonforest exceeds the 
Total Pine Poletimber 

Initial Inventory 

t 

Initial Pine Poletimber 

Stands Remaining 

in Forest 

Initial Pine Poletimber 

to be Cleared 

Pine Poletimber Stands 

Cleared to Nonforest I Total Fores t-to-Fores t I Pine Poletimber 

Initial Pine Poletimber 

Stands Experiencing 

Treatment 8 

Pine Poletimber Acres 

Rotating Through 

Treatment 8 Matrix 

[I LEVEL 

I RATE 

1 I 

SYMBOLS 

Figure 2.--Flow chart illustrating DYNARIP initial forest type and stand-size 

model input breakdowns, treatment 8, pine poletimber. 
r 

Treatment 8. Treatment 8. 

Oak-Pine Sapling Oak-Pine Poletimber 

Oak-Pine Seedling Oak-Pine Sawtimber 

Treatment 8. 

Oak-Pine Nons tocked Hardwood Nons tocked 2 

,Treatment 8. 

Pine Sawtimber HBkdwood Seedling 

Treatment 8. Treatment 8. 

Pine Sapling 

Treatment 8. Treatment 8. 

Pine Seedling Hardwood Pole timber w 

Treatment 8. Treatment 8. 

Pine Nons tocked Hardwood Sawtimber 

TREATMENT 8. 

PINE POLETIMBER b 

Treatment 8. Treatment 8. 

Pine Nons tock 

Treatment 8. Treatment 8. 

Pine Seedling Hardwood Poletimber 

Treatment 8. Treatment 8. 

Pine Sapling ' Hardwood Sapling 

Treatment 8. Treatment 8. 

Hardwood Seedling 

Treatment 8. 

Oak-Pine Nons tocked Hardwood Nons tocked 

Treatment 8. Treatment 8. 

Oak-Pine Seedling 

Treatment 8. 

Oak-Pine Sapling L 

SYMBOLS 

Figure 3.--Flow chart illustrating DYNARIP treatment 8 matrix of change, pine poletimber. 
I Treatment 7. 1 

0 TOTAL 

Figure 4.--Flow chart illustrating DYNARIP tabulation of pine poletimber level. 
number of nonforest acres planted and 

reverted, the net pine poletimber acres 

(and total forest acres) in the regional 

inventory will diminish accordingly. 

Each of the 15 initial forest types 

and stand sizes are broken down and partialled out to the 13 treatment matrices 

in exactly the same manner as described 

above. Each treatmentldisturbance matrix 

is a closed loop that tracks the movement 

of acreage among the 15 type-size levels 

enclosed within it. The effect of each 

treatment or disturbance can thus be isolated. To incohporate assumptions into 

the model, all the user need do is specify the amount and type of initial acreage rotating through each of the 13 treatrnent/disturbance matrices. The empirical 

rates of biological response to treatment 

then take over and drive the model. The 

resulting type-size state of regional forest organization is output at the end of 

each iteration as individual levels are 

tabulated. Any inventory parameter (such 

as timber volume) that can be linked to a 

fores t-type/s tand-size inventory can be 

calculated by multiplying the acres in 

each type-size level by an average factor 

or stochastic distribution representing 

that paramenter. 

Model Test Run 

Since all rates for the Georgia model 

were developed from the 1972 and 1982 

multiresource inventories of the State, 

one test of model performance is achieved 

by plugging the 1972 initial inventory 

into DYNARIP to see how the results compare with what was actually measured in 

1982. An obvious advantage, in this case, 

is that we know what percentages of the 

1972 inventory experienced each of the 

treatments. Although these breakdowns 

will not be known when the model is projccted into the future, such records from 

? h~ past can be used as a reference upon 

dhich to base assumptions about the 

f t i~re. 

The results of the model test run are 

pocted in table 1. As should be the case, 

ths differences between the 1982 reported 

i lvflntory and the 1982 DYNARIP projeci~>rls are small. Some discrepancy is to 

'*(a axpected because individual plot expan- 

- ;#,n factors used for the DYNARIP-model 

i.~a?~t were not calculated in exactly the 

Table 1.--Canparison of 1982 reported Georgia forest 

inventory and 1982 inventory as projected by JXNARIP 

using 1972 input data 

1982 : 

Forest type- IXNARIP 1 Percent 

inventory difference stand size : inventory . projection - - 

Pine 

Nons t ocked 

Seed1 i ng 

Sapl i ng 

Polet imber 

Sawt imber 

Oak- p i ne 

Nons tocked 

Seed1 i ng 

Sapl i ng 

Poletirnber 

Sawt imber 

Ha r dwood 

Nonstocked 

Seed 1 i ng 

Sapl i ng 

Polet imber 

Sawt imber 

Total 

- - - - - Acres - - - - Percent 

same manner as they were for the reported 

inventory. Revision was necessary to make 

the model more sensitive to individual 

Survey Units and because lost or added 

plots could not be used in the calculation of forest-to-forest rates of change. 

The largest discrepancy between projected 

and reported 1982 inventory figures is 

about 8 percent in the pine nonstocked 

category. 

11. Georgia Pilot Analysis 

Before the DYNARIP model could be 

used to project the 1982 Georgia forest 

inventory into the future, a problem 

inherent to the data had to be corrected. 

The 1972 inventory was slightly confounded by plots straddling more than one 

condition. For example, if one portion of 

a plot was in an oak-hickory stand and 
the other in a pine stand, the plot may 

have been typed as oak-pine. Although 

this practice was eliminated and plots 

were confined to a single condition in 

the 1982 survey, its prior use meant that 

some of the rates of change measured between the two surveys were due to Survey 

procedural change and not real change. 

These confounded rates were used in the 

previous model test run, but cannot be 

used for future projections. For this 

reason, 1,900 straddler plots were 

screened from the data so that pure rates 

of change could be developed. These pure 

rates are used in all subsequent DYNARIP 

runs. The total number of plots supporting the Georgia DYNARIP model was reduced 

from 6,134 to 4,234. 

Regional Response to Individual 

Treat rnents/Disturbances 

Figures presented in table 2 isolate 

the potential impact of I1 man-caused and 

natural disturbances (treatments 2 

through 12) on the Georgia forest 

resource over the next 10 years. The 1982 

inventory, which was used as input to the 

model, is listed in the first column. The 

1992 DYNARIP base inventory projection, 

which assumes that rates of treatment and 

forest land-base changes will continue at 

rates observed between 1972 and 1982, is 

shown in the second column. A complete 

listing of the base-run output is provided in Appendix B. The remaining columns in table 2 list the output from 

DYNARIP runs exactly like the base run, 

except that the effect of one treatment/ 

disturbance at a time was nullified. In 

other words, the acres which experienced 

treatments 2, 3, 4, etc., under the base 

run were relegated to Treatment 1 under 

each of the null runs. This sequence of 

runs simulates what the response of the 

resource would be if one of man's activities or a natural disturbance were completely discontinued and the acres affected by that disturbance were allowed 

to proceed as they would if totally 

undisturbed. The potential influence of 

each treatment or disturbance can be 

quantified by comparing each of the null 

runs with the base-run projection and 

initial (1982) inventory. While the complete cessation of a particular activity 

may be unrealistic, this exercise demonstrates that analyses of this type can be 

used to estimate the range of response 

that can be expected from modifying the 

amount of acres affected by a particular 

disruption. As is evident from table 2, 

harvesting and regeneration practices 

bear the most potential influence on the 

future state of forest organization in 

Georgia. Most of the other treatments and 

disturbances would not have an overwhelming impact on the regional inventory by 

the end of 10 years. This means that the 

instances of these other disturbances are 

relatively insignificant when viewed in 

the context of the regional inventory as 

a whole. and/or the resource is highly 

buffered and reacts to them somewhat 

slowly. 

Georgia Forest Policy Analysis 

In addition to isolating the effects 

of individual disturbances, it is much 

more meaningful from the standpoint of 

some forest policy issues to analyze the 

results of shifting acres from one active 

treatment to another. If, for instance, a 

legislative body were interested in changing the composition of a regional inventory, it could use the model to evaluate 

what is biologically possible within a 

certain time frame and then to determine' 

what human activities might be modified 

to best bring about the change. By the 

same token, if a change in some activity 

becomes apparent or is anticipated, the 

model can be used to simulate the prospective results. To show how DYNARIP might 

be used to satisfy such a role, a forest 

policy issue of regional significance was 

chosen for analysis. 

For over a decade, much concern has 

been raised about declining rates of pine 

regeneration in the South (u.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service 1978). 

Past failure to regenerate harvested pine 

stands has made future declines of softwood timber supplies in the South almost 

inevitable (~o~ce and Knight 1979). Conspicuously low rates of pine regeneration 

on lands held by nonindustrial private 

forest (NIPF) owners have been identified 

as a major cause of the problem (Knight 

1978; National Forest Products Association 1980; Society of American Foresters 

1979) . 
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In 1971 the Virginia General Assembly 

passed the Reforestation of Timberlands 

Act, designed to increase the rate of 

pine regeneration on NIPF land in Virginia. The passage of the Federal Forestry Incentives Program (FIP) in 1973 

offered the private landowner in Virginia 

additional stimulus to regenerate more 

acres to pine. With both programs fully 

operational by 1975, the average annual 

acres planted to pine on NIPF land between 1975 and 1981 increased by 131 percent over the average annual acres 

planted between 1962 and 1971, when no 

major incentives programs were in effect 

(U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service 1963-1974, 1974-1980, 1982). 

Suppose the Georgia State Legislature 

were interested in estimating the impact 

of a bill similar to Virginia's Reforestation of Timberlands Act on Georgia's 

softwood timber inventory over the next 

30 years. The average acres planted annually on NIPF land in Georgia between 1975 

and 1981 when FIP was the only major 

incentives program in effect in Georgia 

was 25 percent greater than acres planted 

between 1962 and 1974, when no major programs were in effect. If one assumes that 

25 percent of the Virginia increase between 1975 and 1981 was due to the FIP 

legislation, then one might logically 

conclude that the other 106 percent of 

the total increase was likely due to the 

State bill. This calculation suggests 

that Georgia might also expect about 100 

percent increase in the rate of pine 

regeneration on NIPF land by enacting 

legislation similar to Virginia's. This 

assumption is supported by comparing the 

rate of NIPF planting in Virginia during 

the 3 years when only the State bill was 

in effect (1972-74) with the rates of 

planting in the State between 1962 and 

1971. The comparison indicates the Reforestation Timberlands Act increased planting by 101 percent. 

As if the hypothetical Georgia bill 

were to be passed in 1985 and become 

operational by 1986, the assumed 100 percent increase in NIPF planting rates was 

entered into the DYNARIP model to assess 

the prospective ramifications of the 

policy change. Between 1972 and 1982, 

Georgia NIPF owners planted a total of 

255,616 acres following a final harvest 

(treatment 2), 55,690 acres of poorly or 

nonstocked forest land (treatment 6), and 

60,375 acres of nonforest land (land-base 

change). For the first decade (1982-92), 

NIPF acres experiencing each of the above 

three treatments were increased only by 

60 percent since the legislation would 

not become effective until 1986. For the 

following 2 decades, each was increased 

by 100 percent. Acres added to treatment 

2 were proportionately subtracted from 

treatments 3 and 4. Acres added to treatment 6 were proportionately subtracted 

from acres experiencing treatments 1, 10, 

and 11, hence assuming these acres would 

otherwise have been left to nature. Additional acres of planted nonforest were 

treated as a direct increase to the forest land base. Prospective results of the 

policy change on the pine resource of 

Georgia are presented in column 2 of 

table 3. A measure of the impact of the 

policy change can be obtained by comparing the policy-change-run with the 

base-run projection. 

By the end of the first decade, pine 

nonstocked and pine seedling stands are 

perceptibly impacted. Nonstocked acreage 

declines and pine seedling stands 

Table 3.--Canparison of JXNMIP pine acreage baserun projection, and projected pine acreage resulting 

from hypothetical policy change, Georgia, 1992-2012 

Year/pine : Rase-run : I percent 

stand sizes : projection : change difference 

projection : 

- - Thousand acres - - Percent 

1982 : 

Nonstocked 217.9 206.6 -5.2 

Seed1 i ng 1,215.6 1,316.2 +8.3 

Sap1 i ng 1,858.8 1,930.9 +3.9 

Poletimber 3,029.1 3,024.4 -.2 

Sawt iher 4,082.3 4,071.0 ' -.3 

Total 10,403.7 10,549.1 t1.4 

2002: 

Nonstocked 203.5 185.7 -8.7 

Seedl i ng 1,099.3 1,256.4 +14.3 

Sap1 i ng 1,755.9 1,897.1 +8.0 

Polet imber 2,792.5 2,859.8 +2.4 

Sawt imber 3,612.4 3,602.9 -. 3 

Total 9,463.6 9,801.9 +3.6 

20 12 : 

Nons t ocked 185.7 170.6 -8.1 

Seed1 i ng 1,003.8 1 ,I 59.2 +l5.5 

Sap1 i ng 1,609.4 1,768.8 +9.9 

Polet irnber 2,567.8 2,716.0 +5.8 

Sawt iher 3,236.5 3,262.9 +. 8 

Total 8,603.2 9,077.5 +5.5 
increase. These trends continue throughout the 30-year simulation. Also by 1992, 

some of the increased pine regeneration 

is beginning to boost the area of pine 

saplings. Pine poletimber and sawtimber 

stands remain largely unaffected, except 

for slight reductions due to the liquidation of some poorly stocked and marginally productive stands. 

By the year 2002, the effect of the 

policy change on pine saplings becomes 

apparent as the acres in this category 

are increased by about 8 percent over 

what would be Cqesent without the legislation. Some of the stands planted early 

under the imaginary program are now starting to reach poletimber size. Pine sawtimber still remains relatively unchanged. 

By 2012, pine poletimber acreage is 

expanded by 6 percent. The program is 

just starting to influence pine sawtimber. 

If our assumptions are reasonably accurate, the hypothetical bill would 

increase the total area of pine by about 

0.5 million acres at the end of 30 years. 

However, even with legislation such as 

this in effect, the DYNARIP simulation 

indicates the total pine acreage would 

still decline by about 2.4 million acres 

from what was measured in 1982. 

To further quantify the effects of 

the policy change, average standing volume factors were developed and added to 

the core model. From the 1982 inventory, 

the average standing growing-stock cubicfoot volume per acre by softwood and 

hardwood, by sawtimber and poletimber was 

calculated for each of the 15 forest-type/ 

stand-size combinations. These factors 

were then multiplied by the acreage in 

each of the type-size levels to simulate 

the Georgia growing-stock inventory. The 

DYNARIP 30-year softwood volume projection output is presented in table 4. 

If the stated assumptions become reality, and there are no substantial reductions of softwood removals, increased 

feet over the prospective volume if no 

legislation is enacted. Even so, this 

still represents a 3.6 billion cubic-foot 

decline from the present softwood growingstock inventory. 

The relatively meager potential 

increase in the 30-year softwood volume 

inventory indicated by the policy-change 

projection stems from three main factors: 

1. The most notable factor is the 

present low rate of artificial regeneration on NIPF land. NIPF owners planted 

only 22 percent of the total stands 

planted in Georgia between 1972 and 1982. 

However, they harvested 61 percent of all 

pine stands harvested during this same 

period. Even if they doubled their rate 

of planting, this would still leave 62 

percent of their harvested pine stands 

unplanted. In contrast, forest industry 

artificially regenerated about the equivalent of what pine stands they harvested. 

In order to substantially increase the 

softwood standing inventory volume, NIPF 

planting rates would have to be more than 

doubled. 

2. Some of the additional acres of 

pine planted under the hypothetical program would have regenerated naturally to 

pine anyway. Also, some of the additional 

pine plantations would be unsuccessful. 

3. The entire benefit of the policy 

change is not represented by the invenTable 4.-canppar ison of DYr\V1RIP softwood growingstock inventory volune base-run projection, and 

projected softwood volune resulting from hypothetical policy change, Georgia, 1992-2012 

I Percent Year/softwood : Rase-run : change 

timber size : projection : :difference projection . 

Billion cubic feet Percent 

1992: 

Poletimber 4.241 4.241' - - Sawt imber 10.291 10.269 -0.2 

Total 14.532 14.511 -. 1 

planting now would not sinnificantlv 2002: - .# 

increase softwood volume in the State for Polet imber 3.892 3.950 +1.5 

Sawt irrber 9.425 9.420 -.1 at least 20 years. Most of the additional Total 13.317 13.370 +.4 planted acres would not reach poletimber 

size until they were at least 15 years of 2012: 

age. By the end of 30 years, the softwood Polet imber 3.579 3.704 +3.5 

Sawt imber 8.693 8.762 +.8 growing-stock inventory volume under the 

Total 12.272 12.466 +1.6 

program of increased NIPF plantinn could - 

be increased by about 200 million cubic %egl i gi bl e. 
tory figures in table 4 because extra volume is also being put .on the market due 

to the early liquidation of some poorly 

stocked stands, as well as extra volume 

generated by the planting program. This 

additional volume put on the market could 

make the program look more attractive. 

Although beyond the scope of this 

paper, the hypothetical Georgia policychange analysis could be carried further. 

Average growing-stock removals per acre 

by forest type, stand size, and treatment 

could be developed to gain a measure of 

softwood growing-stock volume put on the 

market over the projection period. With 

this additional information, analysts 

would have much of the input necessary 

for a detailed economic analysis of the 

hypothetical legislation. Algorithms 

tracking wildlife habitat, recreation 

value, esthetics, shifts of forest ownership, etc., could also be added to the 

core model to follow prospective trends 

in these areas of concern. 

As can be gleaned from the above analysis, the trends mapped by the DYNARIP 

model reinforce what common sense would 

reveal to the regional analyst if events 

take place as described, The value of the 

DYNARIP model results from its ability to 

quantify these perceptions of the future 

and to highlight any unexpected consequences resulting from a proposed course of 

act ion. 
Literature Cited 

Boyce, Stephen G.; Knight, Herbert A. 

prospective ingrowth of southern pine 

beyond 1980. Res. Pap. SE-200. 

Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern 

Forest Experiment Station; 1979. 48 p. 

Boyce, Stephenw@. Management of forests 

for optimal benefits (~ynast-OB). Res. 

Pap. SE-204. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Southeastern Forest Experiment Station; 

1980. 92 p. 

Knight, Herbert A.; McClure, Joe P. . 

~eorgia's timber, 1972. Resour. Bull. 

SE-27. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station; 

1974. 48 p. 

Knight, Herbert A. The South is losing 

its pines. Forest Farmer 38 (~ovember- 

~ecember) 1978: 10-11, 30. 3 p. 

McClure, Joe P.; Cost, Noel D..; Knight, 

Herbert A. Multiresource inventories-- 

a new concept for forest survey. Res. 

Pap. SE-191. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Southeastern Forest Experiment Station; 

1979. 68 p. 

National Forest Products Association. 

America grows on trees: the promise of 

private, nonindustrial woodlands. 

Washington, DC: Private Woodlands 

Committee, 1980. 63 p. 

Richardson, George P.; Pugh, Alexander L., 

111. ~ntroduction to systems dynamics 

modeling with Dynamo. Cambridge, MA: 

The MIT Press; 1981. 413 p. 

Sheffield, Raymond M.; Knight, Herbert A. 

Georgia's forests. Resour. Bull. SE-73. 

Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern 

Forest Experiment Station; 1984. 92 p. 

Society of American Foresters. Improving 

outputs from nonindustrial private forest: study report of a task force of 

the Society of American Foresters. Row, 

Clark, chairman. Washington, DC: 

Society of American Foresters; 1979. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service. Forest and windbarrier planting and seeding in the United States 

(1962-1973) reports. Washington, DC: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service; 1963-1974. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service. Forest planting, seeding, and 

silvical treatments in the United 

States (1974-1980) reports. Washington, 

DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service; 1975-1981. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service. Pine reforestation task force 

report for southern forests. Williston, 

Hamlin L., chairman. Atlanta, GA: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service; 1978. 40 p. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service. 1981 U.S. forest planting 

report. FS-379. Washington, DC: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service; 1982. 15 p. 

Pugh, Alexander L., 111. Dynamo users 

manual, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 

1980. 131 p. 
Appendix A. 

DYNARIP Model Listing 

The DYNARIP core model used for the Georgia 1982-1992 base-run project ion 

is listed below. The output from the program as listed here is provided in 

Appendix B. 

This program will run on a DYNAMO/~~O mainframe compiler. The mainframe 

compiler is capable of handling up to 13 separate treatments/disturbances with 

adequate storage capacity for most algorithms that might be added to the core 

model. DYNARIP runs should generally cost less than $5. 

Pmpm Listing 

00010 * GEORGIA DYNARIP,OUTPUT SCALED 

00020 NOTE <<<<<<<<<< FOREST TO FOREST SECTOR >>>>>>>>>> 

00030 NOTE 

00040 NOTE RATE TRANSFERRED TO A TYPE 

00050 NOTE 

00060 MACRO RTOTYP(FRTP1 ,FRTP2 ,FRTP3 ,FRTWFRTPS ,FRTP6 ,FRTP7 ,FRTP8 3FRTP9 9 

00070 X FRTP~O,FRTP~~ ,FRTP~~ ,FRTP~~ ,FRTP~~,FFBT~ ,FFBT~,FFBT~,FFBT~FFFBTS, 

00080 X FFBT6 ,FFBT7 ,FFBT8 ,FFBT9 ,FFBT10 ,FFBT11 ,FFBT12 ,FFBT~~ ,FFBT~~) 

00090 R RTOTYP.KL= 

00100 x (FRTP~*FFBT~/REMEAS)+ 

00110 X (FRTP~*FFBT~/RE~As)+ 

00120 X (FRTP~*FFBT~/REMEAS)+ 

00130 X (FRTP~*FFBT~/REMEAS)+ 

00140 X (FRTP~*FFBT~/REMEAs)+ 

00150 X (FRTP~*FFBT~/REMEAs)+ 

00160 X (FRTP~*FFBT~/REMEAS)+ 

00170 X (FRTP~*FFBT~/REMEAS)+ 

00180 x (FRTP~*FFBT~/REMEAS)+ 

00190 x (FRTP~O*FFBT~O/REMEAS)+ 

00200 x (FRTP~~*FFBT~~/REMEAS)+ 

00210 X (FRTP~~*FFBT~~/REMEAS)+ 

00220 X (FRTP~~*FFBT~~/REMEAS)+ 

00230 X (FRTP~~*FFBT~~/REMEAS) 
00240 MEND 

00250 NOTE 

00260 NOTE AREA AT TIME K BY SIZE/TYPE AND TREATMENT 

00270 NOTE 

00280 MACRO TYPBTR(INTYP,CLE,PERTR,TOTP~,TOTP~,TOTP~,TOTP~,TOTP~,~O~P~, 

00290 X TOTP7 ,TOTP8,TOTP9 ,TOTPI0 ,TOTPI1 ,TOTP~~ ,TOTP~~ ,TOTP~~ ,Dl 9~2 9~3 9~49~5 , 00300 X D6,D7 ,D8,D9,DlO,Dll ,D12,D13 ,D14,DD1 ,DD~,DD~ ,DD~,DDS,DD~,DD~ 9D89DD9, 

00310 X DD~~,DD~~,DD~~,DD~~,DD~~,FFBT) 

00320 L TYPBTR,K=TYPBTR,J+DT*($TOTYP,JK-$FRTYP.JK) 

00330 N TYPBTR=(INTYP-(CLE*TACA*REMEAS))*PERTR 

00340 N FFBT=TYPBTR 

00350 R $FRTYP.KL=$RFRTYP*FFBT/REMEAS 

00360 N $RFRTYP=TOTP~+TOTP~+TOTP~+TOTP~+TOTP~+TOTP~+T~TP~+T~TP~+~~~~~+ 

00370 X TOTP10*~OTP11+TOTP12+TOTP13+TOTP14 

00380 R $TOTYP.KL=RTOTYP(D~,D~,D~,D~,D~,D~,D~,D~,D~,D~~,D~~,D~~,D~~,D

00390 X DD~,DD~,DD~,DD~,DD~,DD~,DD~,DD~,DD~,DD~O,DD~~,DD~~,DD~~,DD~~

00400 MEND 

00410 NOTE 

00420 NOTE TREATMENT 1. 

00430 NOTE 

00440 NOTE PINE NONSTOCKED 

00450 A PA~.K=TYPBTR(IPA,CPA,PATD~,PAPB~,PAPC~,PAPD~,PAP~~,PAOA~, 

00460 X PAOB~,PAOC~,PAOD~,PAOE~,PAHA~,PAHB~,PAHC~,PAHD~,P~E~, 

00470 x PBPA~,PCPAI,PDPA~,PEPA~,OAPA~,OBPA~,OCPA~,~DPA~,~~~~~, 

00480 X HAPA~,HBPA~,HCPA~,HDPA~,HEPA~,FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPD~,FFPE~, 

00490 x FFOAI,FFOBI,FFOC~,FFOD~,FFOE~,FFHA~,FFHB~,FFHC~, 

00500 X FFHD1 ,FFHEl ,FFPA~) 

00510 NOTE PINE SEEDLING 

00520 A PB~.K=TYPBTR(IPB,CPB,PBTD~,PBPA~~PBPC~,PBPD~,PBPE~,PB~A~, 

00530 X PBOB~,PBOC~,PBOD~,PBOE~,PBHA~,PBHB~,PBHC~,PBHD~,PBHE~, 

00540 x PAPB~,PCPB~,PDPB~,PEPB~,OAPB~,OBPB~,~CPB~,~DPB~,OEPB~, 

00550 x HAPBI,HBPB~,HCPB~,HDPB~,HEPB~,FFPA~,FFPC~,FFPD~,FFP~~, 

00560 x FFOA~,FFOB~,FFOC~,FFOD~,FFOE~,FFHAI,FFHB~,FFHC~, 

00570 X FFHD~,FFHEI,FFPB~) 

00580 NOTE PINE SAPLING 

00590 A PC~.K=TYPBTR(IPC,CPC,PCTD~,PCPB~,PCPA~,P~PD~,P~PE~,P~OA~, 

00600 X PCOB1 ,PCOCl ,PCODl ,PCOEl ,PCHAl ,PCHBl ,PCHCl ,PCHD~ ,PCHEl, 

00610 X PBPC~,PAPC~,PDPC~,PEPC~,~APC~,~BPC~,OCPC~,ODPC~,OEPC~, 

00620 X HAPC~,HBPC~,HCPC~,HDPC~,HEPC~,FFPB~,FFPA~,FFPD~,FFPE~, 

00630 X FFOAI,FFOBI,FFOCI,FFOD~,FFOE~,FF~~,FFHC~, 

00640 x FFHD~ ,FFHE~ ,FFPC~) 

00650 NOTE PINE POLETIMBER 

00660 A PD~.K=TYPBTR(IPD,CPD,PDTD~,PDPB~,PDPC~,PDPA~,PDPE~,PDOA~, 

00670 X PDOB1 ,PDOCl ,PDODl PPDOE1 ,PDHAl ,PDHB1 ,PDHCJ- ,PDHDl ,PDml , 00680 X PBPD1, PCPD1 ,PAPDl ,PEPDl , OAPDl , OBPD1, OCPDI , ODPD~ , OEPD1, 

00690 x HAPD~,HBPD~,HCPD~,HDPD~,HEPD~,FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPA~,FFP~~, 

00700 X FFoA~,FFOB~,FFOC~,FFOD~~FFOE~~FF~~~,FFHB~~~~~~~~ 

00710 x FFHD~,FFHE~,FFPD~) 

00720 NOTE PINE SAWTIMBER 

00730 A PE~,K=TYPBTR(IPE,CPE,PETD~,PEPB~,PEPC~,PEPD~,PEPA~,PE~A~, 

00740 X PEOB1 ,PEOCl ,PEODl ,PEOEl ,PEHAl YPEHBl ,PEHCl ,PEHDl ,PEHEl, 

00750 x PBPE~,PCPE~,PDPE~,PAPE~,OAPEI,OBPE~,OCPE~,ODP~~,~~~~~, 

00760 X HAPE~,HBPE~,HCPE~,HDPEI,HEPEI,FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPD~,FFPA~, 

00770 x FFOA~,FFOB~,FFOCI,FFOD~,FFOE~,FFHA~,FFHB~,~F~C~, 

00780 x FFHD~,FFHE~,FFPE~) 

00790 NOTE OAK-PINE NONSTOCKED 
00800 A OA~.K=TYPBTR(IOA,COA,OATD~,OAPB~,OAPC~,OAPD~,OAPE~,OAPA~, 

00810 X OAOB~,OA~C~,OAOD~,OAOE~,OAHA~,~AHB~,~AHC~,~~D~,OAHE~, 

00820 X PBOA~,PCOA~,PDOA~,PEOA~,PAOA~,OBOA~,OCOA~,~D~A~,OEOA~~ 

00830 X HAOA~,HBOA~,HCOA~,HD~A~,HE~A~~FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPD~,FFPE~, 

00840 X FFPA1 ,FFOBl , FFOCl ,FFODl ,FFOEl ,FFHAl ,FFHBl , FFHCl , 00850 x FFHD~,FFHE~,FFOA~) 

00860 NOTE OAK-PINE SEEDLING 

00870 A OB~.K=TYPBTR(~OB,COB,OBTD~,~BPB~,~BPC~,OBPD~,OBPE~,OBOA~, 

00880 X OBPA~,OBOC~,OBOD~,OBOE~,OBHA~,~BHB~,OBHC~,~BHD~,OB~~, 

00890 X PBOB~,PCOB~,PDOB~,PEOB~,OAOB~,PAOB~,OCOB~~ODOB~~OE~~~~ 

00900 X HAOB~,HBOB~,HCOB~,~~B~,HEOB~,FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPD~,FFPE~~ 

00910 X FFoA~,FFPA~,FFOC~,FFOD~,FFOE~,FFHA~,FFHB~,FFHC~, 

00920 x FFHD~,FFHE~,FFOB~) 

00930 NOTE OAK-PINE SAPLING 

00940 A OC~.K=TYPBTR(IOC,COC,OCTD~,OCPB~,OCPC~,~~PD~,~~PE~,OCOA~~ 

00950 x OCOB~,OCPA~,OCOD~,OCOE~,OCHA~,OCHB~,~~~ 

00960 X PBOC1 ,PCOCl ,PDOCl ,PEOCl yOAOC1 ,OBOCl ,PAOCl ,ODOCl ,OEOCl, 

00970 x HAOC~,HBOC~,HCOC~,HDOC~,HEOC~~FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPD~,FFPE~, 

00980 X FFOA~,FFOB~,FFPA~,FFOD~,FFOE~,FFHA~,FFHB~,FFHC~~ 

00990 x FFHD~,FFHE~,FFOC~) 

01000 NOTE OAK-PINE POLETIMBER 

01010 A OD~.K=TYPBTR(IOD,COD,ODTD~,ODPB~,ODPC~,ODPD~,ODPE~,ODOA~, 

01020 x ODOB~,ODOC~,ODPA~,ODOE~,ODHA~,ODHB~,ODHC~,~DHD~,ODHE~, 

01030 X PBOD~,PCOD~,PDOD~,PEOD~,OAOD~,OBOD~,OCOD~,PA~D~,OEOD~, 

01040 X HAODl ,HBODl ,HCODl ,HDODl ,HEODl ,FFPBl ,FFPCl ,FFPD~ ,FFPEl , 

01050 X FFoA~,FFOB~,FFOCI,FFPA~,FFOE~,FFHA~,FFHB~,FFHC~, 

01060 x FFHD~,FFHE~,FFODL) 

01070 NOTE OAK-PINE SAWTIMBER 

01080 A OE~.K=TYPBTR(IOE,COE,OETD~,~EPB~,OEPC~,OEPD~,OEPE~,O~OA~, 

01090 X OEOB~,OEOC~,OEOD~,OEPA~,OE~~,~EHB~,OEHC~~~E~~,OEHE~, 

01100 X PBOE~,PCOE~,PDOE~,PEOE~,OAOE~,OBOE~,OCOE~,~DOE~,PAOE~, 

01110 x HAOE~,HBOE~,HCOE~,HDOE~,HEOE~,FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPD~,~~~~~, 

01120 X FFOA~,FFOB~,FFOC~,FFOD~,FFPA~,FFHA~,FFH~~,FFHC~, 

01130 x FFHD~,FFHE~,FFOE~) 

01140 NOTE HARDWOOD NONSTOCKED 

01150 A HA~.K=TYPBTR(IHA,CHA,HATD~,HAPB~,HAPC~,HAPD~,HAPE~,HAOA~, 

01160 X HAOB1,HAOC1,HAOD1,HAOE1,HAPA1,HAHB1,~HEl, 

01170 X PBHA~,PCHA~,PDHA~,PEHA~,~AHA~,~BHA~,~CHA~,~DHA~,OEHA~, 

01180 X PAHA~,HBHA~,HCHA~,~HA~,HEHA~,FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPD~,FFPE~, 

01190 X FFOA~,FFOB~,FFOC~,FFOD~,FFOE~,FFPA~,FFHB~,FFHC~, 

01200 x FFHD~,FFHE~,FFHA~) 

01210 NOTE HARDWOOD SEEDLING 

01220 A HB~.K=TYPBTR(IHB,CHB,HBTD~,HBPB~,HBPC~,HBPD~,HBPE~,HBOA~, 

01230 x HBOB~,HBOC~,HBOD~,HBOE~,HBHA~,HBPA~,HBHC~,HBHD~,HBHE~, 

01240 X PBHB~,PCHB~,PDHB~,PEHB~,OAHB~,~BHB~,OC~HB~,OEHB~, 

01250 X HAHB1 ,PAHBl ,HCHBl ,HDHBl ,HEHBl ,FFPBl ,FFPCl ,FFPDl ,FFPEl, 

01260 X FFoA~,FFOB~,FFOC~,FFOD~,FFOE~,FFHA~,FFPA~~FFHC~, 

01270 x FFHD~ ,FFHE~ ,FFHB~) 

01280 NOTE HARDWOOD SAPLING 

01290 A HC~.K=TYPBTR(IHC,CHC,HCTD~,HCPB~,HCPC~~H~PD~,H~PE~,H~~A~, 

01300 X HCOB1 ,HCOCl ,HCODl ,HCOEl ,HCHAl ,HCHBl ,HCPAl ,HCHDl ,HCml, 

01310 X PBHC~,PCHC~,PDHC~,PEHC~,~AHC~,OBHC~,OCHC~,~DHC~,OEHC~, 

01320 X HAHC~,HBHC~,PAHC~,HDHC~,~HC~,FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPD~,FFPE~, 

01330 X FFOA1,FFOB1,FFOC1,FFOD1,FFOE1,FFHA1,FFHBl,FFPAl, 

01340 x FFHD~,FFHE~,FFHC~) 

01350 NOTE HARDWOOD POLETIMBER 
01360 A HD~.K=TYPBTR(IHD,CHD,HDTD~,HDPB~,HDPC~,HDPD~,~PE~,~OA~, 

01370 X HDOBl,KDOCl,HDODl,HDOE1,HDHA1,HDHB1,HDHCl,~PAl,HDHEl, 

01380 X PBHD1,PCHD1,PDHD1,PEHD1,OAHD1,OBHD1,OCHDl,ODHDl,OEHDl, 

01390 X HAHD~,HBHD~,HCHD~,PAHD~,HEHD~,FFPB~,FFPC~,FFPD~,FFPE~, 

01400 X FFOA1,FFOB1,FFOC1,FFOD1,FFOE1,FFHAl,FFHBl,FFHC~, 

01410 x FFPAI,FFHE~,FFHD~) 

01420 NOTE HARDWOOD SAWTIMBER 

01430 A HE~.K=TIPBTR(IHE,CHE,HETD~,HEPB~,HEPC~,HEPD~,~PE~,HEOA~, 

01440 X HEOB~,HEOC~,HEOD~,HEOE~,HEHA~,HEHB~,HEHC~,~HD~,HEPA~, 

01450 X PBHE1,PCHEl,PDHE1,PE~1,OAHE1,OBHE:1,OCHE1,ODHE1,OEHEl, 

01460 X HAHE1,HBHEl,HC~1,HDHE1,PAHE1,FFPB1,FFPCl,FFPDl,FFPEl, 

01470 X FFOA1,FFOB1,FFOC1,FFOD1,FFOE1,FFHA1,FFHBl,FFHCl, 

01480 x FFHD~,FFPA~,FFHE~) 

01490 NOTE X 

3 

01500 NOTE 

01510 NOTE 

01520 NOTE TREATMENTS 2-13 OMITTED 

01530 NOTE 

01540 NOTE 

01550 NOTE 

01560 NOTE <<<<<<<<<< FOREST LANDBASE CHANGE SECTOR >>>>>>>>>> 

01570 NOTE 

01580 L NLBCPA.K=(NLBCPA.J+DFRLBCPA.JK) 

01590 N NLBCPA=CPA*TACA*REMEAS 

01600 R RLBCPA.KL=(PPA*TAPA)+(RPA*TARA)-(CPA*TACA) 

01610 L NLBCPB.K=(NLBCPB.J+DPRLBCPB.JK) 

01620 N NLBCPB=CPB*TACA*REMEAS 

01630 R RLBCPB.KL=(PPB*TAPA)+(RPB*TARA)-(CPB*TACA) 

01640 L NLBCPC.K=(NLBCPC.J+DT'~RLBCPC.JK) 

01650 N NLBCPC=CPC*TACA*REMEAS 

01660 R RLBCPC.KL=(PPC*TAPA)+(RPC*TARA)-(CPC*TACA) 

01670 L NLBCPD.K=(NLBCPD.J+D~RLBCPD.JK) 

01680 N NLBCPD=CPD*TACA*REMEAS 

01690 R RLBCPD.KL=(PPD*TAPA)+(RPD*TARA)-(CPD*TACA) 

0 1700 L NLBCPE .K=(NLBCPE . J+DT*RLBCPE . JK) 

01710 N NLBCPE=CPE*TACA*REMEAS 

01720 R RLBCPE.KL=(PPE*TAPA)+(RPE*TARA)-(CPE*TACA) 

01730 L NLBCOA.K=(NLBCOA.J+DT*RLBCOA.JK) 

0 17 40 N NLBCOA=COA*TACA*REMEAS 

01750 R RLBCOA.KL=(POA*TAPA)+(ROA*TARA)-(COA*TACA) 

01760 L NLBCOB.K=(NLBCOB.J+DT*RLBCOB.JK) 

01770 N NLBCOB=COB*TACA*REMEAS 

01780 R RLBCOB.KL=(POB*TAPA)+(ROB*TARA)-(COB*TACA) 

01790 L NLBCOC.K=(NLBCOC.J+DPRLBCOC.JK) 

01800 N NLBCOC=COC*TACMREMEAS 

01810 R RLBCOC.KL=(POC*TAPA)+(ROC*TARA)-(COC*TACA) 

01820 L NLBCOD.K=(NLBCOD.J+DT*RLBCOD.JK) 

01830 N NLBCOD=COD*TACA*REMEAS 

01840 R RLBCOD.KL=(POD*TAPA)+(ROD*TARA)-(COD*TACA) 

01850 L NLBCOE.K=(NLBCOE.J+DT'~RLBCOE.JK) 

01860 N NLBCOE=COE*TACA*REMEAS 

01870 R RLBCOE.KL=(POE*TAPA)+(ROE*TARA)-(COE*TACA) 

01880 L NLBCHA.K=(NLBCHA.J+DT*RLBCHA.JK) 

01890 N NLBCHA=CHA*TACA*REMEAS 

01900 R RLBCHA.KL=(PHA*TAPA)+(RHA*TARA)-(C~CA) 

01910 L NLBCHB.K=(NLBCHB.J+DPRLBCHB.JK) 
01920 N NLBCHB=CHB*TACA*REMEAS 

01930 R RLBCHB.KL=(PHB*TAPA)+(RHB*TARA)-(CHB*TACA) 

01940 L NLBCHC.K=(NLBCHC.J+DT-~RLBCHC.JK) 

01950 N NLBCHC=CHC*TACA*REMEAS 

01960 R RLBCHC.KL=(PHC*TAPA)+(RHC*TARA)-(CHC*TACA) 

01970 L NLBCHD.K=(NLBCHD.J+DPRLBCHD,JK) 

0 19 80 N NLBCHD=CHD*TACA*REMEAS 

01990 R RLBCHD.KL=(PHD*TAPA)+(RHD*TARA)-(CHD*TACA) 

02000 L NLBCHE.K=(NLBCHE.J+DT~RLBCHE.JK) 

02010 N NLBCHE=CHE*TACA*REMEAS 

02020 R RLBCHE.KI,=(PHE*TAPA)+(RHE*TARA)-(CHE*TACA) 

02030 NOTE 

02040 NOTE <<<<<<<<(< SUMMATION OF TYPE-SIZES FOR OUTPUT ????>?>?>? 

02050 NOTE 

02060 A PA.K=MAX((PA~~K+PA~~K+PA~.R+PA~.K+PA~.K+PA~.K+PA~.K+PA~.K+PA~.K+PA~~. 

02070 X K+PAI~.K+PA~~.K+PA~~.K+NLBCPA.K),O) 

02080 A PB~K=MAX((PB~.K+PB~.K+PB~.K+PB~.K+PB~.K+PB~.K+PB~.K+PB~.K+PB~.K+PB~~. 

02090 X K+PB~~.K+PB~~.K+PB~~.K+NLBcPB.K),O) 

02100 A PC~K=MAX((PC~.K+PC~.K+PC~,K+PC~.K+PC~,K+PC~.K+PC~.K+PC~.K+PC~.K+PC~~. 

02110 X K+PC~~.K+PC~~.K+PC~~.K+NLBCPC.K),O) 

02120 A PD.K=MAX((PD~.K+PD~.K+PD~.K+PD~.K+PD~.K+PD~~K+PD~~K+PD~~K+PD~~K+PD~O* 

02130 X K+PD~~.K+PD~~.K+PD~~.K+NLBCPD.K),O) 

02140 A PE.K=MAX((PE~.K+PE~.K+PE~.K+PE~.K+PE~.K+PE~.K+PE~.K+PE~.K+PE~.K+PE~~. 

02150 X K+PE~~.K+PE~~.K+PE~~.K+NLBCPE.K),O) 

02160 A OA.K=MAX((OA~~K+OA~.R+OA~.K+OA~.K+OAS,K+~A~.K+~A~.K+~A~.K+OA~.K+OA~~. 

02170 X K+OA~~.K+OA~~.K+OA~~.K+NLBCOA.K),O) 

02180 A OB.K=MAX((OB~.K+OB~.K+OB~~K+OB~.K+OB~.K+~B~.K+~B~.K+~B~.K+OB~.K+~B~~

02190 X K+OB~~.K+OB~~.K+OB~~.K+NLBCOB.K),O) 

02200 A OC~K=MAX((OC~.K+OC~~K+OC~~K+~C~.K+OC~.K+~C~.K+~C~.K+~C~.K+OC~.K+~

02210 X K+OC~~.K+OC~~.K+OC~~.K+NLBCOC.K),O) 

02220 A OD~K=MAX((OD~~K+OD~~K+OD~~K+OD~.~+ODS.K+OD~~K+~D~~K+OD~~K+O

02230 X K+OD~~.K+OD~~.K+OD~~.K+NLBCOD.K),O) 

02240 A OE.K=MAX((OE~.K+OE~.K+OE~~K+OE~.K+OE~.K+OE~.K+~E~.K+~E~.K+OE~.K+OE~~. 

02250 X K+OE~~.K+OE~~.K+OE~~.K+NLBCOE.K),O) 

02260 A HII.K=MAX((HA~~K+HA~.K+HA~.K+HA~,K+HA~.K+HA~.K+HA~.K+~~.K+HA~.K+HA~~

02270 X K+HA11.K+HA12.K+HA13,K+NLBCHAeK),0) 

02280 A HB~K=MAX((HB~.K+HB~.K+HB~.K+HB~.K+HBS.K+HB~.K+HB~.K+HB~.K+HB~.K+HB~~. 

02290 X K+HB~~.K+HB~~.K+HB~~.K+NLBCHB.K),O) 

02300 A HC.K=MAX((HC~.K+HC~.K+HC~,K+HC~,K+HC~,K+HC~.K+HC~.K+HC~.K+HC~.K+HC~~. 

02310 X K+HC~~.K+HC~~.K+HC~~.K+NLBCHC.K),O) 

02320 A HD.K=MAX((HD~~K+HD~.K+HD~.K+HD~.K+HD~.K+HD~.K+HD~.K+HD~.K+HD~.K+HD~~. 

02330 X K+HD~~.K+HD~~.K+HD~~.K+NLBCHD~K),O) 

02340 A HE.K=MAx((HE~~K+HE~.K+HE~.K+HE~.K+HE~.~O. 

02350 X K+HE~~.K+HE~~.K+HE~~.K+NLBCHE~K),O) 

02360 A P.K=PA.K+PB.K+PC.K+PD.K+PE.K 

02370 A O.K=OA.K+OB.K+OC.K+OD.K+OE.K 

02380 A H,K=HA.K+HB.K+HC.K+HD.K+HE.K 

02390 A T.K=P.K+O.K+H.K 

02400 A A.K=PA.K+OA.K+HA.K 

02410 A B.K=PB.K+OB.K+HB.K 

02420 A C.K=PC.K+OC.K+HC.K 

02430 A D.K=PD.K+OD.K+HD.K 

02440 A E.K=PE.K+OE.K+HE.K 

02450 A PERA.K=(A.K/T.K)*~OO 

02460 A PERB.K=(B.K/T.K)*~OO 

02470 A PERC.K=(C.K/T~K)*~OO 
02480 A PERD.K=(D.K/T.K)*~OO 

02490 A PERE.K=(E.K/T.K)*~OO 

02500 A PERP.K=(P.K/T.K)*~OO 

02510 A PERO.K=(O,K/T.K)*~OO 

02520 A PERH.K=(H.K/T.K)*~OO 

02530 A PERPA.K=(PA.K/T.K)*~OO 

02540 A PEWB ,K=(PB .K/T.K)*~oo 

02550 A PERPC.K=(PC.K/T.K)*~OO 

02560 A PERPD.K=(PD.K/T,K)*~OO 

02570 A PERPE .K=(PE .K/T.K)*~oo 

02580 A PEROA.K=(OA.K/T,K)*~OO 

02590 A PEROB.K=(OB.K/T.K)*~OO 

02600 A PEROC.K=(OC.K/T.K)*~OO 

02610 A PEROD,K=(OD.K/T.K)*~OO 

02620 A PEROE.+(OE .K/T.K)*~oo 

02630 A PERHA.K=(HA.K/T.K)*~OO 

02640 A PERHB.K=(HB.K/T.K)*~OO 

Q2650 A PERHC,K=(HC.K/T.K)*~OO 

02660 A PERHD.K=(HD.K/T.K)*~OO 

02670 A PERHE.K=(HE.K/T.K)*~OO 

02680 NOTE 

02690 NOTE <<<<<<<<<< EQUATIONS TO STOP RUN IF LEVEL FALLS BELOW 0 33333>333) 

02700 NOTE 

02710 A STOPPA.K=~/PA.K 

02720 A STOPPB.K=~/PB.K 

02730 A STOPPC.K=I/PC.K 

02740 A STOPPD.K=~/PD.K 

02750 A STOPPE.K=~/PE.K 

02760 A STOPOA.K=~/OA.K 

02770 A STOP~B.K=~/OB.K 

02780 A STOPOC.K=~/OC.K 

02790 A STOP~D.K=~/OD.K 

02800 A STOPOE.K=~/OE.K 

02810 A STOPHA,K=~/HA.K 

02820 A STOPHB.K=~/HB.K 

02830 A STOPHC.K=~/HC.K 

02840 A STOPHD.K=~/HD.K 

02850 A STOPHE.K=~/HE.K 

02860 NOTE 

02870 NOTE <<<<<<<< SUMMATION OF STANDING MERCH, CU. VOL. (cU. FT. ) 33>))>3)3 

02880 NOTE 

02890 A TSSV.K=PASSV.K+PBSSV.K+PCSSV.K+pDSSV.K+PESSV.K+OASSVoK+OBSSV*K+ 

02900 X OCSSV.K+ODSSV.K+OESSV.K+HASSV.K+HBSSV.K+HCSSV.K+~SSV~K+~SSV~K 

02910 A THSV.K=PAHSV.K+PBHSV.K+PCHSV.K+PDHSV.K+PEHSVoK+OWSV*K+OBHSV*K+ 

02920 X OCHSV.K+ODHSV*K+OEHSV~K+HAHSV.K+HBHSV.K+HCHSV~K+~HSV*K+HEHSV*K 

02930 A TSPVmK=PASPV.K+PBSPV.K+PCSPV.K+PDSPV.K+PESPV.K+OASPV*K+OBSPVoK+ 

02940 X OCSPV~K+ODSPV.K+OESPV.K+HASPV.K+HBSPV.K+HCSPV~K+DSPV~K+~SPV*K 

02950 A THPV.K=PAHPV.K+PBHPV.K+PCHPV.K+PDHPV.K+PEHPV.K+OMPVoK+OBHPV*K+ 

02960 X OCHPV.K+ODHPV.K+OEHPV.K+HAHPV.K+HBHPV.K+HCHPV.K+~HPV.K+~WV~K 

02970 A TV.K=TSSVmK+THSV.K+TSPV.K+THPVoK 

02980 NOTE 

02990 NOTE <<<<<<<<<< MODEL CONTROLS 3?>?3?33?> 

03000 NOTE 

03010 SPEC DT=.~~/PRTPER=~/PLTPER=.~ 

03020 N LENGTH=MIN(~O,REMEAS) 

03030 PRINT PA,OA,HA,A,(O,~)PERA,PERPA,PEROA,PERHA,TSSV(~,~) 
03040 PRINT PB,OB,HB,B,(O,~)PERB,PERPB,PEROB,PERHB,THSV(~,~) 

03050 PRINT PC,OC,HC,C,(~,~)PERC,PERPC,PEROC,PERHC,TSPV(~,~) 

03060 PRINT PD,OD,HD,D,(O,~)PERD,PERPD,PEROD,PERHD,THPV(~,~) 

03070 PRINT PE,OE,HE,E,(O,~)PERE,PERPE,PEROE,PERHE,TV(~,~) 

03080 PRINT (~,~)P,O,H,T,*,(~,~)PERP,PERO,PERH 

03100 PLOT PA=A,PB=B,PC=C,PD=D,PE=E(0,5E+6) 

03110 PLOT OA-A,OB=B,OC=C,OD=D,OE=E(O,~E+~) 

03120 PLOT HA=A,HB=B,HC=C,HD=D,HE=E(0,5E+6) 

03130 PLOT P=P,O=O,H=H(0,15E+6),T=~(l5~+6,253+6) 

03140 PLOT A=A,B=B,C=C,D=D,E=E(~,~~E+~) 

03150 PLOT TSSV=~,THSV=A,TSPV=~,THPV=B(~,~~E+~)/TV=T(~~E+~,~~E+~) 

03160 NOTE 

03170 NOTE .......................... PROGRAM INPUT-------------------------- 

03180 NOTE 

03190 NOTE STANDING MERCH. CU. VOL. FACTORS 

03200 NOTE 

03210 A PASSV.K=PA.K*22 

03220 A PAHSV,K=PA,K*O 

03230 A PASPV.K=PA.K*15 

03240 A PAHPV.K=PA.K*O 

03250 A PBSSV.K=PBeK*62 

03260 A PBHSV.K=PB,K*lO 

03270 A PBSPV.K=PB.K*49 

03280 A PBHPV.K=PB.K*ll 

03290 A PCSSVeK=PC.K*67 

03300 A PCHSV.K=PC.K*6 

03310 A PCSPV.K=PC.K*124 

03320 A PCHPV.K=PC.K*12 

03330 A PDSSV.K=PD.K*363 

03340 A PDHSV.K=PD.K*28 

03350 A PDSPVeK=PD,K*705 

03360 A PDHPV.K=PD0K*62 

03370 A PESSV.K=PE.K*1561 

03380 A PEHSV.K=PE .K*l22 

03390 A PESPV.K=PE.K*281 

03400 A PEHPV,K=PE.K*92 

03410 A OASSV.K=OA.K*66 

03420 A OAHSV.K=OA.K*O 

03430 A OASPV.K=OA.K*O 

03440 A OAHPV.K=OA.K*O 

03450 A 0BSSVeK=OB,K*152 

03460 A OBHSV.K=OB.K*33 

03470 A OBSPV.K=OB0K*57 

03480 A OBHPV.K=OB.K*45 

03490 A OCSSV.K=OC.K*207 

03500 A OCHSV.K=OC.K*33 

03510 A OCSPV.K=OC.K*104 

03520 A OCHPV.K=OC.K*20 

03530 A ODSSV.K=OD.P279 

03540 A ODHSV.K=OD0K*l81 

03550 A ODSPV.K=OD.K*264 

03560 A ODHPV.K=OD.K*351 

03570 A OESSV.K=OE.K*804 

03580 A OEHSV.K=OE.K*524 

03590 A OESPV.K=OE.K*95 

03600 A OEHPV.K=OE.K*296 
03610 A HASSV.K=HA,K*ll 

03620 A HAHSVmK=HA.K*13 

03630 A HASPVeK=HAeK*4 

03640 A HAHPV.K=HAaK*15 

03650 A HBSSV.K=HBmK*37 

03660 A HBHSVmK=HBmK*77 

03670 A HBSPVmK=HBeK*25 

03680 A HBHPVeK=HBmK*89 

03690 A HCSSVmK=HCmK*79 

03700 A HCHSVmK=HCmK*103 

03710 A HCSPVaK=HCmK*36 

03720 A HCHPVmK=HC.K*l24 

03730 A HDSSV.K=HDeK*104 

03740 A HDHSV,K=HDmK*407 

03750 A HDSPV.~=HD,K*~~ 

03760 A HDHPVaK=HDoK*663 

03770 A HESSVmK=HEaK*232 

03780 A HEHSVmK=HEmK*1393 

03790 A HESPVmK=HEmK*22 

03800 A HEHPVmK=HEmK*428 

03810 C REMEAS=1Oa120 INVENTORY REMEASUREMENT PERIOD (YRS.1 

03820 NOTE 

03830 NOTE <<<<<<€€<< TYPE-SIZE BIOLOGICAL RESPONSE TO TREATMENT ???????)?? 

03840 NOTE 

03850 NOTE ***** TREAT. 1-NATURAL SUCCESS ION ***** PERIOD RATES (DECIMAL ) 

03860 NOTE 

03870 C PAPB~=~~~~~/PAPC~=~~~~~/PAPD~~~OOOO/PAPE~~~OOOO/PAOA~~

03880 C PAOB~=~~~~~/PAOC~=~~~~~/PAOD~=~OOOO/PA~E~~~OOOO/PAHA~~

03890 c PAHB~=~~~~~/PAHC~=~~~~~/PAHDI=~~~O~/PAHE~=~O~~~/PBPA~

03900 C PBPC~=~~~~~/PBPD~=~~~~~/PBPE~=~~~~~/PB~A~~~OOOO/P

03910 C PBOC~=~O~~~/PBOD~=~~~~~/PBOE~=~OOOO/PBHA~~~OOOO/PBHB~~~OO

03920 C PBHC~=~O~O~/PBHD~=~~~~~/PBHE~~~OOOO/PCPA~~~OOOO/PCPB~~~OOO

03930 C PCPD~=~~~~~/PCPE~=~~~~~/PCOA~~~OOOO/PC~B~~~OOOO/PCO

03940 C PCOD~=~~~~~/PCOE~=~~~~~/PCHA~~~OOOO/PCHB~~~OOOO/PCHC~

03950 C PC~I=~~~~~/PCHE~=~~~~~/PDPA~=~OOOO/PDPB~~~OOOO/PDP

03960 C ~~~~1=m5256/~~0~1=m0000/~~0~1=,0074/~~0~l~m0128/~~OD~~mO

03970 C PDOE~=~O~~~/PDHA~=~~~~~/PDHB~=~OOOO/PDHC~~~OOOO/PDHD~

03980 C PDHE~=~~~~~/PEPA~=~~~~~/PEPB~=~OOOO/PEPC~~~OOOO/PE

03990 C PEOA~=~~~~~/PEOB~=~~~~~/PEOC~=~OQOO/PE~D~~~OOOO/PE

04000 C PEHA~=~OO~~/PEHB~=~~~~~/PEHC~=~~~~

04010 C OAPA~=~~~~~/OAPB~=~~~~~/OAPC~~~OOOO/~APD~~~OOOO/OAPE~

04020 C OAOB~=~~~~~/OAOC~=~~~~~/OAOD~~~OOOO/~A~E~~~OO

04030 c OAHB~=~~~~~/OAHC~=~~~~~/OAHD~=~O~OO/~AHE~=~OOOO/~BP

04040 C OBPB~=~~~~~/OBPC~=~~~~~/OBPD~=~~~~~/OBPE~~~O~

04050 C OBOC~=~~~~~/OBOD~=~~~~~/OBOE~=~OOOO/~BHA~~~OOOO/OBHB~~

04060 C OBHC~=~~~~~/~BHD~=~O~~~/OBHE~=~O~~~/~CPA~~~OOOO/~C

04070 C OCPC~=~~~~~/OCPD~=~~~~~/OCPE~=~O~O~/~C~A~~~OOOO/OC

04080 C OCOD~=~~~~~/OCOE~=~~~~~/OC~~~~OOOO/~CHB~~~OOO

04090 C OCHD~=~~~~~/OCHE~=~~~~~/ODPA~=~OOOO/~DPB~~~OOOO/ODPC~~~

04100 C 0~~~1=~1580/0~~~1=~2020/0~0~1=~0000/0~0~1=~0000/0~0~1~~

04110 C ODOE~=~~~~~/ODHA~=~~~~~/ODHB~=~OOOO/~DHC~~~OOOO/O

04120 C OD~~=~~~~~/OEPA~=~~~~~/OEPB~=~O~~~/~EPC~~~O

04130 C 0~~~1=m2480/0~0~1=~0000/0~0~1=m0000/0~0~l~m023~/0~0~~~mO~

04140 C 0~~1=m0000/0~~~1=o0000/0~~~1=e0129/0~~~1~m0546/0~~~1~

04150 C HAPA~=~~~~~/HAPB~=~~~~~/HAPc~~~o~~~

04160 C ~0~1=m0227/~~0~1=m0439/~0~1~m0211/~~0~1~m000O/~A0~~~aO~
04170 C HAHB~=.~~~~/HAHC~=.~~~~/HAHD~=.~~~~/KAHE~=.O~~~/HBPA~=.OOOO 

04180 C ~~~~1=.0000/~~~~1=.0737/~~~~1=.0310/~~~~1=.03ll/HBOAl=.~O

04190 C ~~0~1=.0288/~~0~1=.0623/~~0~1=~0310/~~0~1=.0380/H~~1=.~0~

04200 C HBHC~=.~~~~/HBHD~=.~~~~/HBHE~=.O~~~/HCPA~=.O~~~/HCPB

04210 C ~~~~1=.0000/~~~~1=,0000/~~~~1=.0224/~~0~1=.0000/~~

04220 C ~~0~1=.0129/~~0~1=.0577/~~0~1=,0466/~~HA1=.0112/~~~~1=~0000 

04230 C HCHD~=.~~~~/HCHE~=.~~~~/HDPA~=.~~~~/HDPB~=.OOOO/HDPC~=.OOOO 

04240 C HDPD~=.~~~~/HDPE~=.~~~~/HDOA~=~O~OO/HDOB~=.OO~O/HDOC~=.OO~

04250 C HDOD~=.~~~~/HDOE~=.~~~~/HDHA~=~OO~~/HDHB~=.OO~~/HDHC

04260 C HDHE~=.~~~~/HEPA~=.~~~~/HEPB~=.~~~~/HEPC~=.OOOO/HEPD~~.

04270 C ~~~~1=.0000/~~0~1=.0000/~~0~1=.0000/~~0~1=.0000/H~0~1~.0086 

04280 C HEOE~=.~~~~/HEHA~=.~~~~/HEHB~=.OO~~/HEHC~=.OO~~/HE

04290 NOTE 

04300 NOTE 

04310 NOTE TREATMENTS 2-13 OMITTED 

04320 NOTE 

04330 NOTE 

04340 NOTE 

04350 NOTE <<<<<<<<<< TYPE-SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FOREST BASE CHANGES >>?>)))>? 

04360 NOTE 

04370 NOTE ***** PLANTED NF ACREAGE RESULTING TYPE-SIZES ***** (DECIMAL ) 

04380 NOTE 

04390 C ~PA=.0311/~~B=.5211/~~~=.2656/~~~=.1822/~~~=.0000 

04400 c ~0~=.oooo/~0~=.ooo0/~0~=.oooo/~0~=.oooo/~o~=.oooo 

04410 c ~~~=.oooo/~~~=.oooo/~~~=.oooo/~~~=.oooo/~~~=~oooo 

04420 NOTE 

04430 NOTE ***** REVERTED NF ACREAGE RESULTING TYPE-SIZES ***** (DECIMAL) 

04440 NOTE 

04450 C RPA=.~~~~/RPB=.~~~~/RPC=.~~~~/RPD=.~~~~/RI?E=.O~OO 

04460 C ~OA=.0000/ROB=.0361/~O~=.0516/~0~=.0000/~0~=.0000 

04470 C ~HA=.0261/RH~=.0486/~~~=.1731/~~~=.0624/~~~=.0000 

04480 NOTE 

04490 NOTE ***** CLEARED TO NONFOREST BY INITIAL'TYPE-SIZE ***** (DECIMAL) 

04500 NOTE 

04510 C ~~A=.0208/~~B=.0215/~~~=.1082/~~~=.2087/~~~=.1664 

04520 C ~OA=.0040/COB=.0134/~O~=.0450/~0~=.0253/~0~=.0552 

04530 C ~HA=.0831/CHB=.0333/~~~=.0559/~~~=.0997/~HE=.O594 

04540 NOTE 

04550 NOTE <<<<<<<<<< ANALYTICAL CONTROLS >>>>>>>>>> 

04560 NOTE 

04570 NOTE ***** FOREST BASE CHANGES ***** (ANNUAL ACRES) 

04580 NOTE 

04590 C TAPA=9239.8 NONFOREST ACRES PLANTED ANNUALLY 

04600 C TARA=27173.2 NONFOREST ACRES REVERTING ANNUALLY 

04610 C TACA=144387.4 FOREST ACRES CLEARl3D ANNUALLY 

04620 NOTE 

04630 NOTE ***** INITIAL INVENTORY ACREAGE ***** (TOTAL ACRES) 

04640 NOTE 

04650 C 1~A=205658/1~~=1232882/1~~=1787115/1~~=3769165/1~E=4444099 

04660 C 10A=37998/10B=458372/10~=476945/10~=923878/10~=1062357 

04670 C IHA=449893/IH~=678457/1~~=1176027/1~~=3028577/1~~=4002261 

04680 NOTE 

04690 NOTE ***** PERCENT OF INITIAL ACRES UNDERGOING TREATMENT *****(DECIMAL) 

04700 NOTE 

04710 NOTE PINE NONSTOCKED 

04720 C PATD~=.~~~~/PATD~=.Z~~~/PATD~=.OOOO/PATD~=.O~~~ 
04730 C PATD~=.~~~~/PATD~=.~~~~/PATD~=.OOOO/PATD~=.OOOO 

04740 C PATD~=.~~~~/PATD~~=.~~~~/PATD~~=.OOOO/PATD~~=.OOOO/PATD~~=.~~

04750 NOTE PINE SEEDLING 

04760 C PBTD1=.4349/~~~D2=.0206/~~~~3=.0210/~~~~4=.0571 

04770 C PBTD5=.0000/~~~D6=.0412/~~~~7=.0424/~~~~8=.0162 

04780 C ~~~~9=.1490/~~~~10=.1464/~~~~11=.0155/~~~~12=

04790 NOTE PINE SAPLING 

04800 C PCTD1=.3225/~~~~2=.0289/~~~~3=.0141/~~~~4=.0582 

04810 C ~CT~5=.0120/~~~~6=.0091/~~~~7=.0943/~~~~8=.0448 

04820 C PCTD~=, 1482/~~~~10=. 1843/PCTDl 1=.0302/~~~~12= .0094/PC~Dl3=. 0440 

04830 NOTE PINE POLETIMBER 

04840 C PDT~l=.2180/~~~~2=,0996/~~~~3=.0664/~~~~4=.1237 

04850 C PDT~5=.0113/~~~~6=.0073/~~~~7=.0913/~~~~8=.0922 

04860 C PDTD~=,~~~~/PDTD~~=.~~~~/PDTD~~=,O~~~/PDTD~~=.

04870 NOTE PIN'& SAWTIMBER 

04880 C PET~l=.2431/~~~~2=.1244/~~~~3=.0889/~~~~4=.1213 

04890 C ~E~~5=.0284/~~~~6=~0015/~~~~7=,1055/~~~~8=.0317 

04900 C ~~~~9=.0820/~~~~10=.0438/~~~~11=.0747/~~~~12=.0

04 9 1 0 NOTE OAK-P INE NONSTOCKED 

04920 C OATD1=.2830/OA~~2=~0000/OA~~3=.0000/OA~~4=.2823 

04930 C OATD~=.~~~~/OATD~=.~~~~/OATD~=.OOOO/OATD~=.OOOO 

04940 C OATD~=~~~~~/OATD~~=.OOOO/OATD~~=.OOOO/OATD~~=.~~~~/OA

04950 NOTE OAK-PINE SEEDLING 

04960 C 0BTD1=.5045/0~~~2=.0208/0~~~3=~0000/0~~~4=.0829 

04970 C 0BT~5=.0207/0~~~6=.1039/0~~~7=.0208/0~~~8=.0000 

04980 C OBTD~=~~~~~/OBTD~~=~~~~~/OBTD~~=~O~O~/OBTD

04990 NOTE OAK-PINE SAPLING 

05000 C OC~~1=.4887/0~~~2=.0272/0~~~3=,0086/0~~~4=.0731 

05010 C OCTD~=.~~~~/OCTD~=.~~~~/OCTD~=.~~~~/OCTD~=.OOOO 

05020 C 0~~~9=~0846/0~~~10=.0372/0~~~11=.0806/0~~~12=.0000/0~

05030 NOTE OAK-PINE POLETIMBER 

05040 C 0DTD1=.4053/0~~D2=.0483/0~~~3=.0568/0~~~4=.0691 

05050 C ODTD~=.~~~~/ODTD~=.~OOO/ODTD~=.~~~O/ODTD~=.OO~~ 

05060 C 0~~~9=.0090/0~~~10=.0608/0~~~11=.1169/0~~~12=.0231/0~~

05070 NOTE OAK-PINE SAWTIMBER 

05080 C 0~T~1=.3860/0~~~2=.0411/0~~~3=.0376/O~~~4=.1270 

05090 C 0~~~5=~0867/0~~~6=.0000/0~~~7=.0703/0~~~8=.0218 

05100 C 0~~~9=.0288/0~~~10=.0200/0~~~11=.0835/0~~~12=.0414/0~~~1~=.05

05110 NOTE HARDWOOD NONSTOCKED 

05120 C HATD~=.~~~~/HATD~=.~~~~/HATD~=.OOOO/HATD~=.O~~~ 

05130 C HATD~=~~~~~/HATD~=.~~~~/HATD~=.O~~~/HATD~=.OOOO 

05140 C HATD~=~~~~~/~TD~~=.O~O~/~TD~~=.OOOO/HATD~~=.O~O~

05150 NOTE HARDWOOD SEEDLING 

05160 C HBTD~=.~~~~/HBTD~=.O~~~/HBTD~=.O~~~/HBTD~=.O~~~ 

05170 C HBTD~=~~~~~/HBTD~=.~~~~/HBTD~=.O~O~/HBTD~=.OOOO 

05180 C HBTD~=.~~~~/HBTD~~=.OOOO/HBTD~~=.~~~~/HBTD~~=.O~~~/

05190 NOTE HARDWOOD SAPLING 

05200 C ~~~~1=.5706/~~~~2=.0394/~~~~3=.0187/~~~~4=.0133 

05210 C ~~~~5=.0183/~~~~6=.0252/~~~~7=.0910/~~~~8=.0128 

05220 C ~~~~9=.0644/~~~~10=.0142/~~~~11=.0064/~~~~12=.0

05230 NOTE HARDWOOD POLETIMBER 

05240 C HD~~1=.6392/~~~~2=.0129/~~~~3=.0064/~~~~4=.0427 

05250 C HDTD5=.0361/H~~~6=.0082/H~~~7=.0978/~~~D8=.0041 

05260 C ~~~9=~0107/~~~~10=.0429/~~~~11=.0262/~~~~12=.

052 70 NOTE HARDWOOD SAWTIMBER 

05280 C HETD1=,6925/~~~~2=~0126/H~~~3=.0226/H~~D4=.0566 
05290 C HETD~=~O~~~/HETD~=~~~~~/HETD~=~O~~~/HETD~~~OO

05300 C HETD~=~~O~~/HETD~O=~O~~~/HETD~~=~O~~O/HETD~~~~O~

05310 RUN BASE PROJECTION STRADDLERS OUT 1982-1992 

END OF DATA 

Prognrrn Technical Notes 

Outlined below is a brief description of the major sectors of the model. 

In the interest of space, it is impractical to individually define the 

thousands of variable names used by the program. Many are repetitious and can 

be deciphered by means of a simple relationship: 

Forest Type Stand Size 

P = pine 

0 = oak-pine 

H = hardwood 

A = nonstocked 

B = seedling 

C = sapling 

D = poletimber 

E = sawt imber 

Combinations of the above codes are used to define forest-type/stand-size 

combinations; i.e., PA = pine nonstocked, PB = pine seedlings ,..., HE = 

hardwood sawtimber. These coding combinations form the roots of most variable 

names. The specific variable names necessary to understand the program are provided in order of occurrence as each sector is described. 

Forest-to-Forest Sector (lines 10-1550) 

The entire forest-to-forest sector is controlled by the macros RTOTYP and 

TYPBTR (lines 10-400). These macros tabulate each type-size treatment level, 

are made up of dummy variables, and are defined by the 13 treatment blocks 

directly below them. In this listing, only treatment 1 is shown (lines 420- 

1480). Each type-size combination under each of the 13 treatment blocks invokes 

and defines the macros. Variable names for the treatment 1 pine nonstocked 

combination (lines 440-500) are defined as follows: 

PA1 = pine nonstocked treatment 1 level. 

IPA = initial pine nonstocked acreage inventory. 

CPA = the percentage of all acres cleared annually which are pine 

nonstocked. 

PATDl = the percentage of initial pine nonstocked acres to experience treatment 1. 

PAPBl = the percentage of initial pine nonstocked acres dispersed from pine 

nonstocked to pine seedling under treatment 1. 

PAPCl = the percentage of initial pine nonstocked acres dispersed from pine 

. nonstocked to pine sapling under treatment 1. 

PAHEl = the percentage of initial pine nonstocked acres dispersed from pine 

nonstocked to hardwood sawtimber under treatment 1. 

PBPAl = the percentage of initial pine seedling acres dispersed from pine 

seedling to pine nonstocked under treatment 1. 

PCPAl = the percentage of initial pine sapling acres dispersed from pine 

sapling to pine nonstocked under treatment 1. 

HEPAl = the percentage of initial hardwood sawtimber acres dispersed from 

hardwood sawtimber to pine nonstocked under treatment 1. 
FFPBl = the amount of initial ~ine seedling acres which are to experience 

treatment 1 that are to remain in forest over the model run. 

. FFHEl = the amount of initial hardwood sawtimber acres which are to 

experience treatment 1 that are to remain in forest over the model 

run. 

FFPAl = the amount of initial pine nonstocked acres which are to experience 

treatment 1 that are to remain in forest over the model run. 

Forest Land-Base Change Sector ( lines 1560-2020) 

The 15 levels and rates listed here keep track of all additions to and 

subtractions from the forest land base. Variable names for the pine 

nonstocked land~base change level (lines 1580-1600) are defined as follows: 9 

NLBCPA = pine nonstocked net land-base change level. 

RLBCPA = pine nonstocked annual rate of land-base change. 

CPA = the percentage of all acres cleared annually which are pine 

nons tocked . TACA = total acres cleared annually (all type-size combinations). 

REMEAS + the number of years separating the initial and final 

surveys. 

PPA = the percentage of all nonforest acres planted annually 

resulting in pine nonstocked. 

TAPA = the total nonforest acres planted annually (all type-size 

combinations). 

RPA = the percentage of all nonforest acres annually reverting 

naturally to pine nonstocked. 

TARA = the total nonforest acres reverting naturally to forest (all 

type-size combinations). 

Summation of Type-Sizes for Output (lines 2040-2670) 

Here the type-size combinations under each treatment are summed to calculate the 15 net total forest-type and stand-size levels (lines 2060-2350). 

Land-base change levels are also included in these equations. The net typesize level equations are constrained by a MAX function to prohibit them from 

falling below 0. Additional auxiliary equations for program output are calculated in this sector also (lines 2360-2670). 

Equations to Stop Run if Level Falls Below 0 (lines 2690-2850) 

In the rare instance that a user might specify a set of circumstances 

which cause a type-size level to fall below 0, these equations will stop the 

run because results are unpredictable. 

3 Summation of Standing Merchantable Cubic Volume ( ft ) (lines 2870-2970) 

Although not part of the core model, these equations were used to produce 

the volume output presented in table 4 and Appendix B. Variable name root 

modifiers are defined as follows: 

SSV = softwood sawtimber volume. 

HSV = hardwood sawtimber volume. 

SPV = softwood poletimber volume. 

HPV = hardwood poletimber volume. 

Model Controls (lines 2990-3150) 

Equations controlling the length of the model run, DT interval, scaling of 

output variables, etc., are listed here. The model length should not be 
greater than the Survey remeasurement period because results are unpredictable 

(line 3020). If the user desires to run the model more than 10 years into the 

future, the final inventory values of the previous 10-year run should be used 

as initial values for the next lo-year run. 

Program Input (lines 3170-5310) 

In this section, all variables used in the model are assigned values. 

These values are unique to each user-defined region and are screened from 

Survey plot data. All values listed here apply to the State of Georgia between the years of 1972 and 1982. The type-size biological response to treatment dispersion rates for treatments 2-13 were omitted to conserve space. 

Analytical Controls 

All variables recommended for manipulation by the user are listed in lines 

4550-5310 of the program. 

Forest Base Chanker (lines 4570-4610) 

These values represent annual changes in the forest land base. The numbers 

presented in the program listing are the amount and type of change measured in 

Georgia between 1972 and 1982. The user can change these values according to 

perceptions of the future. 

Initial Inventory Acreage (lines 4630-4670) 

These values represent the type-size breakdown of the regional inventory 

at the beginning of the model run. The values shown in the program listing 

are the inventory breakdown as measured by the 1982 multiresource inventory of 

Georgia. These initial inventory values were used to project the Georgia 

inventory from 1982 to 1992. To project the model another 10 years, these 

values should be replaced with the 1992 projection inventory values. 

Percent of Initial Acres Undergoing Treatment ( lines 4690-5310) 

The most powerful analytical controls are located in this section of the 

program. It is here that the user can change ass~mptions about what percentage of each of the 15 initial forest-type and stand-size combinations 

experience each of the 13 treatments/disturbances. The values presented in 

the program listing are the rates of treatment measured in Georgia between 

1972 and 1982. To change the proportion of the inventory experiencing a particular treatment or disturbance, all the user need do is increase the percentage of acres experiencing one treatment and decrease the percentage of acres 

experiencing another treatment. For example, if one perceives that the rate 

of pine poletimber acres experiencing commercial thinning (treatment 8) will 

increase by 25 percent, one should increase the value of PDTD8 by 25 percent, 

and decrease the value of PDTDl by the same amount. This change loads the 

model with the assumption that the increase in commercially thinned pine poletimber acres will come from pine poletimber acres that otherwise would have 

experienced no treatment or disturbance. NOTE: The 13 treatment/disturbance 

rates under each of the type-size combinations should always add to 1 (within 

rounding); i.e., PATDl + PATD2 + ,..., + PATD13 = 1.0. 

Using the Model 

It is important to keep in mind that when one assigns a percentage of the 

initial inventory to experience a treatment/disturbance, it is the forest type 

and stand size at the time of the initial inventory (year 0 of the model run) 

to which the treatment rate is assigned. For instance, when acres of pine 

poletimber at year 0 are destined to experience commercial thinning, some may 
grow into pine sawtimber before the thinning is administered. The model automatically takes this into account, so the user need be concerned only with 

the composition of the initial inventory, and not all of the complex changes 

that take place before treatment are actually carried out. 

DYNARIP can be used to project a regional inventory any number of years 

into the future. However, as the model proceeds further into the future, the 

results become correspondingly less reliable because our assumptions become 

less reliable. Also, the treatment/disturbance patterns associated with the 

sawtimber stand sizes may become less dependable if the median age of the 

trees within these projected classes deviates very far from the median stand 

age at the time of inventory. The sawtimber stand sizes are susceptible to 

such slippage because they encompass a potentially wide range of stand ages. 

DYNARIP rates of change are based on 10-year rates between two points in 

time. For this- reason, once a set of assumptions is entered, the model should 

be allowed to ruh for a lo-year timespan before any assumptions are changed. 

This allows the 10-year rates built into the model to exert their full impact 

on the inventory. Assumptions can be changed to any degree desired, but only 

at 10-year intervals. 

The model uses a combination of differential and linear rates of change. 

On a decade basis, the DYNAMO simulation translates the empirical rates of 

change into differential rates. Between decades, on an annual basis, the 

empirical rates are treated as linear rates of change since this is all that 

can be inferred from inventories at two points in time. In reality, most of 

these annual rates are not linear, but we do not know their true form. 

Although the model outputs inventory values for all intermediate years for 

each 10-year run, these intermediate values should be used cautiously with the 

knowledge that the deviation between the assumed linear rate and the true rate 

is unknown. Year 10 is therefore the most reliable year of any DYNARIP simulation. 

Appendix B. 

Georgia 1982-1992 Base-Run Sample Output 

The following tables and graphs are a sample of the output produced by 

the DYNARIP base-run projection for Georgia. The base run assumes that all 

rates measured between 1972 and 1982 will remain unchanged between 1982 and 

1992. Growing-stock inventory volume projections have been added to the core 

model acreage simulation. 
Table 5.--DYNARIP base-run area and growing-stock volume projections, 

Georgia, 1982-1992 

Variable namea 

TIME PA 0 A HA A PERA PERPA PEROA PERHA TSSV 

PB OB HB B PERB PERPB PEROB PERHB THSV 

PC OC HC C PERC PERPC PEROC PERHC TSPV 

PD OD HD D PERD PERPD PEROD PERHD THPV 

PE OE HE E PEW PERPE PEROE PERHE TV 

P 0 H T PERP PER0 PERH 

Scale 

-- Cubic 

----- Acres - - - - - - ----- Percent - - - - - - feet 

Continued 
Table 5.--DYNARIP base-run area and growing-stock volume projections, 

Georgia, 1982-1992--Continued 

TIME PA 0 A HA A PERA PERPA PEROA PERHA TSSV 

PB OB HB B PERB PERPB PEROB PERHB THSV 

PC OC HC C PERC PERPC PEROC PERHC TSPV 

PD OD HD D PERD PERPD PEROD PERHD THPV 

PE OE HE E PERE PERPE PEROE PERHE TV 

P 0 H T PERP PER0 PERH 

Continued 
Table 5.--DYNARIP base-run area and growing-stock volume projections, 

Georgia, 1982-1992--Continued 

TIME PA 0 A HA A PERA PERPA PEROA PERHA TSSV 

PB OB HB B PERB PERPB PEROB PERHB THSV 

PC OC HC C PERC PERPC PEROC PERHC TSPV 

PD OD HD D PERD PERPD PEROD PERHD THPV 

PE OE HE E PERE PERPE PEROE PERHE TV 

P 0 H T PERP PER0 PERH 

- --- 

a Variable name definitions: 

PA = pine nonstocked 

PB = pine seedling 

PC = pine sapling 

PD = pine poletimber 

PE = pine sawtimber 

P = pine 

OA = oak-pine nonstocked 

OB = oak-pine seedling 

OC = oak-pine sapling 

OD = oak-pine poletimber 

OE = oak-pine sawtimber 

0 = all oak-pine 

HA = hardwood nonstocked 

HB = hardwood seedling 

HC = hardwood sapling 

HD = hardwood poletimber 

HE = hardwood sawtimber 

H = all hardwood 

A = all nonstocked 

B = all seedling 

C = all sapling 

D = all poletimber 

E = all sawtimber 

T = total commercial forest 

PERPA = percentage of pine nonstocked 

PERPB = percentage of pine seedling 

PERPC = percentage of pine sapling 

PERPD = percentage of pine poletimber 

PERE = percentage of pine sawtimber 

PEW = percentage of all pine 

PEROA = percentage of oak-pine nonstocked 

PEROB = percentage of oakpine seedling 

PEROC = percentage of oak-pine sapling 

PEROD = percentage of oak-pine poletimber 

PEROE = percentage of oak-pine sawtimber 

PERO = percentage of all oak-pine 

PERHA = percentage of hardwood nonstocked 

PERHB = percentage of hardwood seedling 

PERHC percentage of hardwood sapling 

PERHD = percentage of hardwood poletimber 

PERHE = percentage of hardwood sawtimber 

PERH = percentage of all hardwood 

TSSV = softwood sawtimber volume 

THSV = hardwood sawtimber volume 

TSPV = softwood polet imber volume 

THPV = hardwood poletimber volume 

TV = total growing-stock volume 

PERA = percentage of all nonstocked 

PERB = percentage of all seedling 

PERC = percentage of all sapling 

PERD = percentage of all poletimber 

PERE = percentage of all sawtimber 
------------ Thousand acres - - - - - - - - - - - 

0. 1250.T 2500 .T 3750 .T 5000.T ABCDE 

1982-A------B---C----------- -D- - - -E- - - - . A B C . D E . . A B C . D E . . A B C . D E . . A B C . D. E . • A B C • Dm - E • 

. A B C . D. E . . A B C . D. E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . 1984.5- -A- - - -B- - - C - - - - - - - - - -Dm - - - E - - - - 

i 

. A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . Y . A B C . D . E . e .A- B C . D . E . a 1987- -A- - - - - -B---c-------- -D- - - - -E- - - - - 

r . A B C . D . E . s . A B C • D . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E 

. A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B iC . D . E . . A B C . D . E . 1989.5--A------~---~--------~-----~----- 

. A B C . D . E . • A B C • D • E • 

. A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E 

• A B C • D • E • 

. A B C D' . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . . A B C . D . E . 1992- -A- - - - - -B- - - c - - - - - - D - - - - - -E- - - - - - 

Figure 5.--DYNARZP base-run area projection of pine forest types by stand size, 

Georgia, 1982-1992. A = pine nonstocked, 3 = pine seedling, C = pine sapling, 

D = pine poletimber, E = pine sawtimber. 
----------- 

-- Thousand acres - - - - - - - - - - - - 

0. 1250.T 2500.T 3750.T 5000.T ABCDE 

1982 A--BC--D-E-------------em--------- 

A BC DE, • • • 

A BC DE* • • • 

A BC DE • • • t 

A BC DE. . . . A BC DE, . . A BC DE. . . . A BC DE . . . . A BC DE . . . . A BC DE . . . . 1984*5A--Bc--DE------------------------ 

A BC DE . . . A BC DE . . . A BC DE. . . . A BC DE. . . . A BC DE . . . A BC DE . . . A BC DE . . . Y A BC DE . . . e A BC DE , . a1987 A--BC-DE------------------------ 

r A B DE. . . BC 

s A B DE. . . BC 

A B DE. . . . BC 

A B DE. . . . BC 

A B DE. . . . BC 

A B DE. . . . BC 

A B DE. . . BC 

A B DE. . . . BC 

A B DE. . . BC 

1989.5A - -B- - DE------------------------ BC 

A B DE. . . . BC 

A B DE, . . BC 

A B DE. . . BC 

A B DE. . . . BC 

ABDE. . . . BC 

ABDE. . . BC 

ABDE. . . . BC 

ABDE. • • BC a 

ABDE. . . . BC 

1992 A--B--DE---- -------------- ------- BC 

Figure 6.--DYNARIP base-run area projection of the oak-pine forest type, by 

stand size, Georgia, 1982-1992. A = oak-pine nonstocked, B = oak-pine seedling, 

C = oak-pine sapling, D = oak-pine poletimber, E = oak-pine sawtimber. 
------------ Thousand acres - - - - - - - - - - - 

0 l 1250.T 2500 .T 3750.T 5000.T ABCDE 

1982 ---A-B--C----------D-----E------ 

l AB C l l D l E l 

l A B C l l D l E l 

l AB C l l D l E l 

l A B Cm l D E l 

l A B C l l D l E l 

l AB Cm l D l E l 

l AB C l l D l E l 

l A B Cm l D l E l 

l A B Cm . D l E . 1984m5---A--B--C----------~------E----- 

A *B C l l D l E l 

l A B C. l D l E l 

l A B Cm l D l E l 

l AB Cm l D l E l 

l A B Cm l D l E l 

l A B C l l D l E l 

l AB .Cm l D l E l 

Y l AB C. l D l E l 

e l AB Cm l D l E l 

a1987 ---A-B--C---------- D ------- E----- 

r l AB Cm l D l E l 

s l A B C, l D l E l 

l A B Cm l D l E l 

l AB Cm l D l E l 

l A B Cm l D l E l 

l A B Cm l D l E 

l A B Cm l D l E l 

l A B Cm l D l E l 

l A B C, D l E l 

1989.5- - -A- B - -C- - - - - - - - - - -D- - - - - - - - -E- - - - l AB C l l D l E l 

l AB C l l D l E l 

l A B C l l D l E l 

AB C l D l E l 

l A B C l l D l E l 

. AB C l D l E l 

l A B C l l D l E l 

l A B C l l D l E l 

AB C l l D l E l 

1992 - - -A-B- - -c- ----------D-------- - -E- - - 

Figure 7.--DYNARIP base-run area projection of hardwood forest types, by stand 

size, Georgia, 1982-1992. A = hardwood nonstocked, B = hardwood seedling, 

C = hardwood sapling, D = hardwood poletimber, E = hardwood sawtimber. 
------------ Million acres - - - - - - - - - - - - 

. 0 3.75M 7.5M 11.25M 15.M POH 

15 .M 17.5M 20 .M 22.5M 25.M T 

1982 ------O----------- -H- - - - P-- T---- 

. 0 . . H .P T . . 0 . . H .P T . . 0 . . H P T . . 0 . . H P T . l 0 . . H P T a 

. 0 . . H P T . . 0 . . H P T . . 0 . . H P T . . 0 . . H P T . 1984,5------O------------H---P---T----- 

. 0 . . H P T . . 0 . . H P T l 

. 0 . . H P . T l 

. 0 . . H P. T . . 0 l . H P . T . . 0 . . H P. T . . 0 . . H P l T . Y . 0 . . H P. T l 

e CD 0 . . H P. T . a 1987 - - - - - -0------ ------a H--P--T------ 

r . 0 . . H P. T . s . 0 . . H Po T . . 0 . . H P. T . l 0 . . H P. T . . 0 . . H Po T , . . 0 . l H P. T . . 0 . . H P. T . . 0. . H -P. T . . 0 l . H Po T . 1989*5------O-------------H--P--T------ 

. 0 . . H POT . . 0 . . H P .T . . 0 . . H P .T . . 0 . . H P .T . . 0 . . H P .T . . 0 . . H P .T . . 0 . . H P .T . . 0 l l H P .T . . 0 . . H P .T . 1992 ------o--- ---------- H-P-T------- 

Figure 8.--DYNARIP base-run area projection of all broad forest types, Georgia, 

1982-1992. P = pine, 0 = oak-pine, H = hardwood, T = total. 
------------ Million acres - - - - - - - - - - - - 

.O 3.75M 7.5M 11.25M 15.M ABCDE 

1982 --A---B--c--------D---E----------- 

. A B C . .D E . . . A B C . .D E . . . A B C. .D E . . A B C . .D E . . A B C . D E . . A B C . D E . . A B C. D E . . . A B C . D E . . . A B C . D E 

1984.5--A---B--C-------~---~----------- 

. AS B C . D E . . A B C. D E 

. A B C . D E . . . A B C . D E . . . A B C. D. E . . . A B C . D. E . . A B . C. D. E . . Y . A B C . D. E 

e . A B C. D. E . a1987 --A---B--c-------D----E----------- 

r . A B C. D. E . s . A B C. D. E . . A B C . D. E . . A B C . D. E . . . A B C. D . E 

. A B C. D E . . . A B C . D E . . . A B C. D . E . . . A B C. D E . . 1989*5--A---~--c------~----~----------- 

. A B C. D E . . A B C. D . E . . A B C. D . E 

. A B C. D E . . . A B C. D . E 

. A B C. D . E . . . A B C . D E . . . A B C. D E . . A B C . D E . 1992 - -A- - -B- - c - - - - - -D- - - - - E - - - - - - - - - - - 

Figure 9.--DYNARIP base-run area projection of all stand-size classes, Georgia, 

1982-1992. A = nonstocked, B = seedling, C = sapling, D = poletimber, 

E = sawtimber. 
-------.---- Billion cubic feet - - - - - - - - - -,- 

• 0 3.75B 7.5B 11.25B 15,B 1A2B 

20mB 23.75B 27.5B 31.25B 35.B T 

1982 ----------2B------A--T---l-------- 

l l 2B A T 1 

l l 2B l A T 1. l 

l l 2B • A T 1. • 

l l 2B . A T 1. l 

. l 2B l A T 1, . l l 2B AT 1 . l 

l l 2B AT 1 . 8 

l l 2B AT 1 l l 

• l 2B AT 1 l • 

1984.5 - - - - - - - - - -2-B- - - - - - A-T--l-------- 

l l 2B AT 1 . . l l 2B AT 1 l l 

l l 2B . A T 1. l 

l l 2B l A T 1. 

• l 2B AT 1 l • 

. l 2B . AT 1. l 

. .2B . AT 1 , . . .2B . AT 1 . . . .2B l AT 1. l 

-I------- 2 -B- - - - - - -A-T- - -1- - - - - - - - - l .2B l AT 1. l 

l .2B l AT 1 l l 

l .2~ l AT I . l 

l .2B l AT 1. l 

l .2B l AT 1 l l 

l .2B l AT 1 l 

l 02B AT 1. l 

l .2B . AT '1. l 

l m2B • AT 1. l 

198gm5---------2-~------ -AT--l--------- 

l m2B AT 1 • l 

• a2 B AT 1. v 

l m2 B l A 1. l AT 

l m2 B l A 1. l AT 

l 02 B • A 1m l AT 

l 02 B l TA 1. 

l m2 B TAl* l 

l m2 B TA1. l 

l 02 B TAl* l 

---------2--B-------TA--l---------- 

Figure 10.--DYNARIP base-run growing-stock-inventory volume projection, by broad 

species and size class, Georgia, 1982-1992. 1 = softwood sawtimber, 2 = softwood poletimber, A = hardwood sawtimber, B = hardwood poletimber, T = total. 
Glossary 

Growing-stock volume. Volume (cubic feet) 

All live trees. All trees 1.0 inch d.b.h. of solid wood in growing-stock trees 5.0 

and larger which are not dead at the time inches d.b.h. and larger, from a 1-foot 

of inventory. stump to a minimum 4.0-inch top diameter, 

outside bark, on the central stem. 

Broad forest type. A classification of 

forest land based on the species forming 

a plurality of live-tree stocking. 

*. 3 

Hardwood forest type, Stands in which 

pines constitute less than 25 percent 

of live-tree stocking. 

Oak-pine forest type. Stands in which 

pines account for at least 25 but not 

more than 50 percent of live-tree 

stocking. 

Volume of solid wood in primary forks 

from the point of occurrence to a minimum 

4.0-inch top diameter outside bark is 

included . 

Hardwoods. Angiosperms; dicotyledonous 

trees (including all palm species which 

are monocotyledonous), usually broadleaf 

and deciduous. 

Ingrowth. The number or net volume of 

trees that grow large enough during a 

specified year to qualify as saplings, 

Pine forest type. Stands in which pines poletimber, or sawtimber. 

constitute more than 50 percent of 

live-tree stocking. Level. The quantity of a given material 

at a particular instant in time. 

Commercial species. Tree species conventionally regarded as being able to de- Manageable stand. Commercial forest land 

velop into trees suitable for the manu- at least 60 percent stocked with growingfacture of industrial timber products. stock trees that can be featured together 

Species which typically exhibit small under a management scheme. 

size, poor form, or inferior quality are 

excluded . Mortality. The merchantable volume in 

trees that -have died from natural causes 

D.b,h. Tree diameter (outside bark) at during a specified period. 

breast height (4.5 feet above the ground). 

Nonindustrial ~rivate forest (NIPF) lands. 

Forest land. Land at least 16.7 percent Forest land owned by farmers, individuals, 

stocked by forest trees of any size, or or corporations; excluding forest industry 

formerly having had such tree cover, and land or land leased to forest industry. 

not currently developed for nonforest use. 

Primary treatment or disturbance. The 

Growing-stock trees, Live sawtimber-size treatment or disturbance, man-caused or 

trees of commercial species containing at natural, in evidence as having occurred 

least a 12-foot log, or two noncontiguous during the most recent remeasurement 

saw logs each 8 feet or longer, meeting period and judged to have had the greatminimum grade requirements (hardwoods est influence toward creating the existmust qualify as either a log grade 3 or ing forest conditions. 

4; softwoods must qualify as a log grade 

3) with at least one-third of the gross Artificial regeneration after site 

board-foot volume (~nternational 1/4-inch preparation, The reestablishment of a 

rule) between a 1-foot stump and the timber stand by planting trees or 

minimum saw-log top being sound, or a direct seeding following site preparalive tree below sawtimber size that will tion on forest land that was harvested 

prospectively qualify under the above prior to the most recent remeasurement 

standards. period. 
Artificial regeneration on nonforest 

land. The establishment of a timber 

stand, at least 16.7 percent stocked 

with live trees, by planting trees or 

direct seeding on lands previously 

classed as nonforest. 

Artificial regeneration without site 

preparation. The reestablishment of a 

timber stand by planting trees or 

direct seeding without site preparation 

of forest land harvested prior to the 

most recent remeasurement period. 

Includes artificial regeneration on 

forest sites prepared prior to the 

remeasurement period. 

Cleaning, release, or other intermediate cutting. The act of freeing an 

immature stand of growing-stock trees 

from competition, by the mechanical 

removal of overstory trees and other 

inhibiting vegetation. Excludes prescribing burning, girdling, poisoning, 

and thinning . 

Clearing or other site preparation. 

The mechanical removal of residual 

trees, inhibiting vegetation, and other 

physical obstacles, and/or chopping, 

raking, disking, and bedding to prepare 

the site for planting trees or direct 

seeding. 

Commercial thinning. The removal of 

some of the merchantable trees from an 

immature stand to improve the growth 

and quality of the remaining trees. A 

sufficient stocking of growing-stock 

trees is left for a manageable stand. 

Construction of fences, woods roads, 

firebreaks, trash pits, etc. The introduction of these or similar disturbances into a timber stand, if such 

activity has significantly influenced 

the stand condition. 

Girdling or poisoning undesirable trees. 

The act of freeing an immature stand of 

growing-stock trees from competition by 

the killing or poisoning, but not 

felling, of poor-quality trees. 

Grazing or other activity that retards 

or precludes development of the understory. Grazing of domestic livestock, 

repeated mowing, or any similar activity 

which inhibits the establishment and 

development of the understory trees 

within a forest condition. 

Harvesting followed by artificial regeneration. The reduction of a merchantable stand of timber below a manageable 

level of stocking, and the subsequent 

reestablishment of a manageable stand 

of growing-stock trees by planting or 

direct seeding, either with or without 

site preparation. 

Harvesting followed by natural regeneration. The reduction of a merchantable stand of timber below a manageable 

level of stocking, and the subsequent 

reestablishment of a manageable stand 

of growing-stock trees from advanced 

regeneration, natural seeding, or 

sprouting. Excludes conventional seedtree method of harvesting. 

Harvesting leaving seed trees, with 

satisfactory regeneration. The reduction of a merchantable stand of timber 

below a manageable level of stocking, 

b~t~leaving a sufficient number of seed 

trees for regeneration as evidenced by 

the reestablishment of a manageable 

stand of growing-stock trees from the 

seed tree reproduction. 

Harvesting leaving seed trees, without 

satisfactory regeneration. The reduction of a merchantable stand of timber 

below a manageable level of stocking, 

but leaving a number of seed trees for 

regeneration. A manageable stand of 

reproduction from the seed trees has 

not yet become established. 

Harvesting without regeneration. The 

reduction of a merchantable stand of 

timber below a manageable level of 

stocking without leaving seed trees, 

and no manageable stand of natural 

reproduction exists . 
Major drainage efforts, Construction of 

canals, ditches, or similar drainage 

efforts which permanently reduce the 

water table within the stand as evidenced by existing stand conditions. 

Major man-caused flooding. Construction 

of dams, ponds, lakes, or similar activities which raise the water table 

within the stand as evidenced by existing stand conditions. 

Natural regeneration on nonforest land. 

The establishment of a timber stand, at 

least 16.7 percent stocked with live 

trees, through natural reproduction on 

lands previously classed as nonforest. 

No treatment or disturbance. Existing 

forest conditions exhibit no discernible evidence of any significant treatment or disturbance during the 

remeasurement period. 

Other. Existing forest conditions exhibit evidence of a significant treatment or disturbance during the 

remeasurement period other than those 

described here. 

Precommercial thinning. The mechanical 

removal or destruction of seedlings, 

saplings, or other small, unmerchantable trees from a young, overstocked 

stand to enhance the growth and dominance of the residual trees in a manageable stand. 

Prescribed burning. The practice of 

using controlled fire to eliminate or 

reduce unincorporated organic matter on 

the forest floor or low, undesirable 

vegetation. 

Removal of selected trees resulting in 

high grading, The removal of selected 

trees (usually the best or highest 

valued) from a merchantable stand of 

timber, but leaving sufficient stocking 

of residual trees for a manageable 

stand. 

Salvage cut. The harvesting of a 

merchantable stand of recent mortality 

trees, or trees in imminent danger of 

mortality. 

Significant damage from disease. Damage 

to a stand of timber severe enough to 

significantly reduce current or prospective growth, and caused by fungi, 

bacteria,-rusts, blights, or other 

agents of disease. 

Significant damage from insects. Damage 

to a stand of timber severe enough to 

significant 19 reduce current or prospective growth, and caused by the 

direct activity of insects. 

Significant damage from weather and 

other natural destructive agents, 

Damage to a stand of timber severe 

enough to significantly reduce current 

or prospective growth, and caused by 

severe weather conditions such as high 

winds, freezing, ice storms, drought, 

flooding (other than man-caused), or 

damage associated with wildlife such as 

beaver, 

Significant damage from wildfire. 

Damage to a stand of timber severe 

enough to significantly reduce current 

or prospective growth, and caused by 

uncontrolled fire. 

Turpentining. The working of pine trees 

within a stand of timber for the commercial production naval stores. 

Poletimber-size trees. All live trees at 

least 5.0 inches d,b.h., but smaller than 

sawt imber size. 

Rotation age. The period of years 

required to grow a stand of timber to 

economic or natural maturity. 

Saplings. Live trees 1.0 to 4.9 inches 

d.b.h. 

Sawtimber-size trees. Softwoods 9.0 

inches d.b.h. and larger and hardwoods 

11.0 inches d.b.h. and larger. 
Seedlings. Live trees of commercial species less than 1.0 inch d.b.h. that are 

expected to survive and develop. 

Softwoods. Gymnosperms; in the order 

Coniferales, usually evergreen (includes 

the genus Taxodium which is deciduous), 

having needles or scalelike leaves. 

Stand-size class. A classification of forest land based on the diameter class distribution of growing-stock trees in the 

stand. 

Nonstocked stands. Forest land less 

than 16.7 percent stocked with growingstock trees. 

Poletimber stands. Stands at least 16.7 

percent stocked with growing-stock 

trees of which half or more of total 

stocking is in poletimber and sawtimber 

trees, and with poletimber stocking 

exceeding that of sawtimber. 

Sapling stands. Stands at least 16.7 

percent stocked with growing-stock 

trees of which more than half of the 

total stocking is saplings and seedlings, and with sapling stocking at 

least equal to that of seedlings. 

Sawtimber stands. Stands at least 16.7 

percent stocked with growing-stock 

trees, with half or more of total stocking in sawtimber and poletimber trees, 

and with sawtimber stocking at least 

equal to poletimber stocking. 

Seedling stands. Stands at least 16.7 

percent stocked with growing-stock 

trees of which more than half of the 

total stocking is saplings and seedlings, and with seedling stocking 

exceeding that of saplings. 

Stocking. The degree of occupancy of land 

by trees, measured by basal area or the 

number of trees in a stand, compared with 

a minimum standard required to fully utilize the growth potential of the land. 

Timber removals. The merchantable volume 

of trees removed from the inventory by 

harvesting, cultural operations such as 

stand improvement, land clearing, or 

changes in land use. 
Bechtold, William A. I Bechtold, William A. I DYNARIP: A technique for regional forest inventory projection DYNARIP: A technique for regional forest inventory projection 

and policy analysis. Res. Pap. SE-243. Asheville, NC: U.S. I and policy analysis. Res. Pap. SE-243. Asheville, WC: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest 

i 

I Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest I 

Experiment Station; 1984. 43 p. I Experiment Station; 1984. 43 p. I I 

DYNARIP is a policy-oriented model capable of tracking all of the 1 DYNARIP is a policy-oriented model capable of tracking all of the 

treatments and disturbances experienced by the forest resources of treatments and disturbances experienced by the forest resources of 

an entire State or regional area. It can also isolate the impact of Ian entire State or regional area. It can also isolate the impact of 

1 any one of 27 man-caused or natural disturbances (including natural any one of 27 man-caused or natural disturbances (including natural 

i , succession and forest land-base changes). The model is driven by I succession and forest land-base changes). The model is driven by 

empirical rates of change as measured by forest inventories between \empirical rates of change as measured by forest inventories between 

I 

two points in time. A few simple controls permit the entry of the two points in time. A few simple controls permit the entry of the 

user's own perceptions of the future into the model. luser's own perceptions of the future into the model. 

I 

KEYWORDS: Forest policy, forest simulation, forest inventory pro- I KEYWORDS: Forest policy, forest simulation, forest inventory proI 

I jection, resource evaluation, ecosystem dynamics. I jection, resource evaluation, ecosystem dynamics. I 
The Forest Service. U.S. Department of Agriculture, is dedicated to the principle of multiple 

I use management of the Nation's 

forest resources for sustained 

.yields of wood, water, forage. 

wildlife, and recreation. Through 

forestry research . cooperation 

with the Statessand private forest 

owners, and management of the 

National Forests and National 

Grasslands, it strives-as direc ted by Congress-to provide 

increasing1 y greater service to a 

growing Nation. 

USDA policy does not permit discrimination because of 

race, color, national origin. sex or religion. Any person 

who believes he or she has been discriminated against in 

any USDA-related activity should write immediately to 

the Secretary of Agriculture. Washington. D.C. 20250.