# Risk and Technology Review **-**

**Final Analysis of Socio**  **- Economic Factors for**  **Populations Living Near Secondary Lead Smelting** 

**Facilities**
Prepared b y: EC/R Incorporated 501 Eastowne Drive, Suite 250 Chapel Hill, NC 27514
EPA Contract No. EP
- D
- 06
- 119 Work Assignment No. 4
- 0 1 Prepared for: Regina Chappell , Work Assignment Manager Community

and Tribal Programs Group Office of Air Quality

Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27 711

December , 201 1

### ii 

## Disclaimer Although the anal ys is described in this document has been funded wholly or in part by

the United States Environmental Protection Agency contract EP
- D
- 06
- 119 to EC/R Incorporated, it has not been subject to the Agency 's review and therefore does not necessa rily

reflect the views of the Agency , and no official endorsement should be inferred.

### iii 

# Contents

1. Introduction 1 2. Census Data 2 3. Calculation Methods 4 3.1 Racial , Ethnic and Age Categories and the Total Population 4 3.2 Level of Education 5 3.3 Household Income 6 3.4 Poverty Level 7 3.5 Disability 7 3.6 Linguistic Isolation 8 4. Results 9 5. Uncertaint y Discussion 11 Appendix A A
- 1

### 1



# 1. **Intr oduction**  This document describes the approach used to evaluate the potential cancer and noncancer risks associated with inhalation and air
- related exposures to hazardous air pollutants (HAP) in different social, demographic , and economic groups within the population living near secondary lead smelting production facili t ies in the United States
. This work was carried out in support of the U.S. Enviro nmental Protection Agency ’s Residual Risk and Technology Review (RTR) for secondary

lead smelting emissions subject to Maximum Available Control Technology

(MACT) requirements under 40 CFR 63 Subpart X
. In the RTR anal ys is, the Human Exposure Model, Version 3 ( HEM
- 3 ) 1 , 2 

### was used to estimate cancer and noncancer risks due to the inhalation of HAP for the populations residing within 50 kilometers of each secondary lead smelting facility in the country
. HEM
- 3 estimates cancer and noncancer risks at the level of census blocks using the AERMOD state
- of
- the
- art air dispersion model developed under the direction of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) / EPA Regulatory

Model Improvement Committee (AERMI C). Each census block ty pically includes about 50 p eople. Additional information on the risk anal ys is is available in the docket for the **National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutant Emissions: Secondary**  **Lead Smelting Operations**  rulemaking wh ere a report is provided , covering the inputs and spec ific assumptions, and addressing uncertainties. In the current anal ys is, cancer and noncancer risk estimates from the secondary lead smelting HEM
- 3 modeling effort were linked to detailed census data in order to evaluate the distribution of risks for dif ferent demographic groups (including racial, ethnic, age, economic , educational , disab led and linguistically isolated population categories) . The following population categories were included in this anal ys is :  Total population  White  Minority  African American (or Black)  Native Americans  Other races and multiracial  Hispanic or Latino  Children 1 7 ye ars of age and under  Adults 1 8 to 64 y ears of age  Adults 65 y ears of age and over  Adults without a high school diploma 1
. EC/R. 2006. Modeling for the Residual Risk and Technology Review Using the Human Exposure Model 3

– AERMOD Version. Prepared by EC/R Incorporated for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. 2
. EC/R. 2008. HEM
- 3 User’s Guide. Prepared by EC/R Incorporated for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/fera/human_hem.html#guide

### 2

 Households earning under the national median income  People living below the poverty line  Working aged people (16
- 64) with a disability  Linguisticall y isolated people 3 

### The HEM
- 3 results for a particular census block reflect the estimated level of cancer risk that would be experienced b y an indi vidual residing in the block for 70 ye ars , and/or the estimated noncancer hazards experienced b y an individual residing in the block due to chronic exposure
. In this analy sis, the latter includes the development of chronic hazard quotients for lead which are derived from estimated maximum 3
- month rolling average exposures divided by the National Ambient Air Quality

Standard (NAAQS) for lead. As a result of secondary lead smelting emissions, the demographic composition of the population estimated to experie nce a risk greater than 1 in 1 million

– and the population estimated to experience ambient lead concentrations exceeding the NAAQS

– is compared to the demographic composition of the overall nationwide population
. The census data used in this analy sis is described in Section 2. The algorithms used to compute the distributions of risk and exposure are presented in Section 3. The results of this anal ys is are presented in Section 4. 

# 2. **Census Data** Table 1 summarizes the census data used in this analy sis, showing the source of each dataset and the level of geographic resolution. All of the data are from the 2000 Decennial census. Race , ethnicity and age data were obtained at the census block level. Distributions regarding educational status, poverty status, household income , disabilities and linguistic isolation were obtained at the block group level. A census block contains about 50 people on average; and a block group contains about 26 blocks on average, or about 1,350 people. (For comparison, a censu s tract is larger than a block group, with each tract containing an average of 3 block groups, or about 4,300 people.)

3 According to the U.S Census, a household is linguistically isolated if all adults speak a language other than English and none speaks English very well. Adult is defined as age 14 or older, which identifies household members of high school age and older.

### 3 **Table 1. Summary of Census Data used to Analyze Risks for Different Socioeconomic Groups**  Ty pe of population category Source of data Level of geographic resolution Racial and ethnic categories Landview ® Census block Age groups SF 1 Table P 12 Census block Level of education
- a dults without a high school diploma SF3 Table 37 Block group Households earning below the national median income SF3 Table 52 Block group People living below the poverty line SF3 Table P87 Block group Working a ge p eople (16
- 64) with a d isabilit y SF3 Table P42 Block group Linguisticall y i solated p eople SF3 Table P20 Block group Data on race and ethnicity were obtained primarily

from the Landview ® database compiled by

the Census Department. 4 

### Landview ® gives a breakdown for the population of each census block among different racial classifications, including: White, African Americ an or Black, American Indian or Native Alaskan, Asian, Native Hawaiian or other South Pacific Islander, other race, and two or more races. In the current anal ys is, the Asian, Native Hawaiian or other South Pacific Islander, and other race categories were combined into a single category
. The Landview ® database also indicates the number of people in each tract that are of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity . Landview ® covers the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, but does not cover the Virgin I slands. Race and ethnicity data on the Virgin I slands were obtained from the Virgin Islands Summary File. 5 

### Data on age distributions in the U.S. and Puerto Rico for each census block were obtained from the 2000 Census of Population and Housing Summary F ile 1 (SF1) Short Form , Table P12
. Data on poverty status, household income, education level , disabilities and linguistic isolation for each block group in the U.S. and Puerto Rico were obtained from the 2000 Census of Population and Housing Summary File 3 (SF3) L ong Form. For the U.S. this file was accessed on a DVD version prepared b y Geo Lytics. 6 

### SF3 data for Puerto Rico were obtained from the Census Department website, 7 

### and d ata for the Virgin Islands were retrieved from similar tables in the Virgin Is lands Summary File. 4 4
. Census. 2002 . LandView 5 on DVD [electronic resource] : a viewer for EPA , Census and USGS data and maps . U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 5
. Census. 2008. Virgin Islands Summary File. U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. www.factfinder.census.gov 6
. Census. 2004 . Census DVD 2000 Long Form SF3, Release 2.2. Geolytics, Inc. , East Brunswick, NJ. www.geolytics.com 7
. Census. 2008. SF3 D ata for Puerto Rico. U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. www.factfinder.census.gov

### 4

The SF3 data set consist s of over 800 separate tables , each providing information on a different subject. For the current anal ys is, data were obtained from Table s P20, P37, P42, P52, and P87. Table P37 analyzes the level of education attained b y men and women over 25 ye ars of age (e.g. some high school but no high school diploma, high school graduate, some college, etc.) in each block group . Table P52 gives information on household income in 1999
. Table P87 estimates the number of people living below the poverty line in each block group. Table P42 estimates the number of people in different age categories with disabilities in each block group. And Table P20 estimates the fraction of households in each block group that are considered linguistically

isolated. 

# 3. **C alculation Methods**  T he HEM
- 3 models the cancer and noncancer risk at a point near the geographic center of each census block. 8 

### For the current anal ys is, this risk estimate was assumed to apply to all individuals residing in the block. We used b lock identification code s to link the HEM
- 3 modeling results for each block to the appropriate census statistics. This allowed us to estimate the numbers of people falling into diff erent population categories within each block. We then anal yz ed the distribution of estimated inhalation risks within each population category, giv en the numbers of people within the category that are exposed to different risk levels. Each distribution i nvolved a tabulation of all the census blocks modeled for the secondary lead smelting source category . W e also computed the average risk for all individuals in each population category
. Distributions of risk and average risks were computed for the raw HEM
- 3 model results for secondary

lead smelting operations . For comparison, the nationwide demographic composition (i.e., population percentage in each demographic group for the country as a whole, based on the 2000 Census ) is also provided in the res ults table
. Section 3.1 describe s the calculation method used for categories where block
- level data were available

– racial , ethnic and age categories and the total population. Sections 3.2 through 3. 6 describe calculation methods for education status, household income, povert y status, disability and linguistic isolation, respectivel y. 

### 3.1 **Racial ,**  **Ethnic and Age**  **Categorie s and the Total Population**  Since race , ethnicit y and age data are available at the census block level, the calculation of risk distributions for these categories involved a simple block
- by
- block accumulation of the people in each category . We began by identifying a set of bins reflecting the level of risk. The population of each block was then assigned to the appropriate risk bin based on the modeled risk level in the block. The numbers of people in each risk bin were then added together for all of the blocks modeled for the secondary lead smelting source category : 8
. HEM
- 3 generally uses the coordinates given by the census for the internal point, or “centroid” of each block. How ever , when the footprint of an industrial facility includes the block centroid, the model is designed to identify the highest
- risk point outside of the facility’s footprint.

### 5 H(R ab 

### ,s ) = ∑ i ( Ra≤Ri<Rb) 

### [ N (s ,i ) ] (1) where: H(R ab 

### ,s ) = the population count for risk bin R ab 

### , which is between R a 

### and R b 

### for population subgroup “s” R i 

### = the modeled risk level in block “í” (estimated lifetime cases of cancer per million population or noncancer hazard index ) ∑ i (Ra ≤Ri<Rb) 

### refers to the summation over all blocks i where R i 

### falls in bin R ab 

### , between R a



### and R b 

### N(s ,i ) = the number of people within population subc ategory s , in block i The same approach was used for the total population. The average risk for a given population category or for the total population was then calculated using the following equation:

A(S) = ∑ i 

### [N(s,i) × R i 

### ] ⁄ ∑ i 

### [N(s,i)] (2) where: A(s) = the average risk for population subgroup “s” (estimated lifetime cases of cancer

per million population or noncancer hazard index) ∑ i 

### refers to the summation over all blocks “í” modeled for the emission source category N(s,i) and R i 

### were defined above 

### 3.2 **Level of Education** Table P37 of the SF3 dataset specifies the education status for men and women age 25 and older for each census block group , based on the last grade completed. To obtain the total number of adults without a high school degree, we added together the numbers who had completed grades below a high school senior. Thus, the number of people without a high school degree equals the sum of the number of males with no schooling, the number of females with no schooling, the numbers of males and f emales who have completed nursery school through 4 th 

### grade, up to the numbers of males and females who have completed some high school but not received a high school degree. The number of adults without a high school degree as a fraction of the total popu lation was assumed to be the same for each block in the block group. Thus, the number of adults without a high school degree in each block was computed as follows: N (nhs ,b/bg) = N( t ,b/bg) × N (nhs ,bg ) ⁄ N( t ,bg) ( 3 ) where: N(nhs ,b/bg) = numb er of adul ts without a high school diploma, in block “ b ” of block group

“ bg ” N( t ,b/bg) = total number of people in block “ b ” of block group “ bg ”

### 6

N(nhs ,bg) = numb er of adults without a high school diploma in block group “ bg ” N( t ,bg) = total number of people in block group “ bg ” Equation ( 1 ) was then used to generate risk distribution s based on the block
- level results, and Equation ( 2 ) was used to compute the average risk for adults without a high school diploma
. 

### 3.3 **Household Income** Table P 52 of the SF3 dataset estimates the numbers of households in each block group with income for the ye ar 1999 in various ranges, generall y divided into $5 , 000 increments (e.g. $10,000 to $14,999, $15 , 000 to $19,999, etc.). The median national income for 1999 was about $ 42 ,000 per ye ar. Therefore, in order to determine the number of households with incomes under the median income, we added the estimates for the ranges below that level
. W e assumed that the household incomes in the $40,000 to $44,999 i ncrement were evenly distributed over this range. Therefore, 40% of the households in the $40,000 to $4 4,999 income range were assumed to be below the national median income of about $42,000. The following equation was used to estimate the fraction of ho useholds below the national median income within each census block group: F( n m,bg ) = [C <10 

### + C 10
- 15 

### + .... + C 35
- 40 

### + (0.4×C 40
- 45 

### )] ⁄ C T 

### ( 4 ) where: F ( n m ,bg) = fraction of households in block group “bg” with incomes below the median

national income C <10 

### = number of households with incomes under $10,000 C 10
- 15 

### = number of households with incomes from $10,000 to $14,999 C 35
- 40 

### = number of households with incomes from $35,000 to $39,999 C 40
- 45 

### = number of households with incomes from $40,000 to $44,999 C T 

### = total number of households in block group “bg” The fraction of people living in households below the median income for each block within the block group was assumed to be the same as the fraction of households below the median income for the block g roup. N( n m, b/bg) = F(sm,bg) × N( t ,b/bg) ( 5 ) where: N( n m,b/bg) = number of people in block “b” of block group “bg” living in households below

the national median income F( n m,bg) = fraction of households in block group “bg” below the national median i ncome N( t ,b/bg) = total number of people in block “b” of block group “bg” Equation ( 1 ) was then used to generate risk distribution s based on the block
- level results, and Equation ( 2 ) was used to compute the average risk for people living in households be low the national median income
. Itmust be noted that this approach neglects any potential relationship

### 7

between household s ize and income level within a particular block group. However, it is expected to provide a reasonable indication of the risk level of people living below the national median income, relative to the population as a whole. 

### 3.4 **Poverty Level** Table P 87 of the SF3 dataset estimates the total number people in each block group living below the povert y level, as well as the numbers of people below the poverty level in different age groups. The current study did not include an analy sis of poverty status b y age group, onl y of the total population below the povert y line. The fraction of people below the poverty line was assumed to be the same for each block in the block group. Thus, the population below the poverty line in each block was computed as follow s:

N(p ,b/bg) = N(T,b /bg) × N(p ,bg ) ⁄ N(T,bg) ( 6 ) where: N(p ,b/bg) = number of people below the povert y line in block “b” of block group “bg” N(T,b/bg) = total number of people in block “b” of block group “bg” N(p ,bg) = number of people below the povert y line in block group “bg” N(T,bg) = total number of people in block group “bg” Equation ( 1 ) was then used to generate risk distribution s based on the block
- level results, and Equation ( 2 ) was used to compute the average risk for people living belo w the povert y level
. 

### 3.5 **Disability** Table P42 of the SF3 dataset estimates the total number of people in each block group with disabilities, as well as the numbers of people with disabilities in different age groups. This anal ys is includes the total number of working aged people ( 16 through 64 ye ars of age) with a disa bility
. The fraction of working age d people with a disability was assumed to be the same for each block in the block group. Thus, the population of working age d people with a disability in each block was computed as follows: N( d ,b/bg) = N(T,b/bg) × N( d ,bg) ⁄ N(T,bg) ( 7 ) where: N( d ,b/bg) = number of working age d people with a disability in block “b” of block group

“bg” N(T,b/bg) = total number of people in block “b” of block group “bg” N( d ,bg) = number of working age d people with a disability in b lock group “bg” N(T,bg) = total number of people in block group “bg” Equation ( 1 ) was then used to generate risk distributions based on the block
- level results, and Equation ( 2 ) was used to compute the average risk for working age d people with a disabili ty .

### 8



### 3.6 **Linguistic Isolation** Table P 20 of the SF3 dataset estimates the fraction of households in linguistic isolation in each block group . For this analy sis, the fraction of people living in linguistic isolation for each block within the block group was assumed to be the same as the fraction of households in linguistic isolation for the block group. Thus, the population of linguistically i solated people in each block was computed as follows: N(li,b/bg) = F(li,bg) × N(t,b/bg) (8) where: N(li,b/bg) = number of people in block “b” of block group “bg” living in linguisticall y

isolated households F(li,bg) = fraction of households in block group “bg” in linguistic isolation N(t,b/bg) = total number of people in block “b” of block group “bg” Equation ( 1 ) was then used to generate risk distributions based on the block
- level results, and Equation ( 2 ) was used to compute the average risk for people living in linguistic isolation
.

### 9



# 4. **Results** T he distribution of estimated lifetime inhalation cancer risks greater than or equal to 1 in a million or noncancer hazard indices greater than 1 for different demographic groups living near secondary lead smelting facilities is shown in Table 2
. For comparison purposes , T able 2 provides the nationwide percentages of the various demographic groups. F or the secondary lead smelting source category, the facility
- wide emissions and risk distribution are equivalent to the source category

emissions and risk distribution, thus a separate demographic anal ys is based on facility
- wide emissions was not performed . Moreover, for HAP other than lead, there were no estimated noncancer HI values greater than 1, thus we did not perform a demographic anal ys is on noncancer risks for any pollutants other than lead. The demographic noncancer results for lead are presente d in Table 2 as “Population with Ambient L ead Concentrations Exceeding the NAAQS,” rather than as population with HIgreater than 1, because lead concentrations were compared to the NAAQS rather than to a reference concentration. Detailed demographics dat a and anal ys es used to create Table 2 can be found in Appendix A of this document. The results of the demographic analy sis presented in Table 2 indicate that there are approximately 84 ,000 people exposed to a cancer risk greater than 1
- in
- 1 million Th e demographic anal ys is estimate that about 4 1 % of th is population can be classified as minority , and this minority

figure is more than one
- and
- a - half times higher than the national minority percentage (of 25%). More specificall y, the demographic analysis estimates that about 5 2 % of the population with excess cancer risk is classified as “Hispanic”, and this percentage is nearl y four times the national Hispanic percentage (of 14%). Furthermore, 3 1 % of the population estimated at a cancer risk greater than 1
- in
- 1 million is classified as “Other and Multiracial”, and this figure is nearl y three times the national demographic for this category (at 12%). The demographic anal ys is for cancer risk also estimates that 2 5 % of the population at excess cancer risk ha s no high school diploma, and this is approximately twice the national percentage for this demographic (of 13%). In addition, 21 % of the population at excess cancer risk is below the poverty level, a figure which is more than one
- and
- a - half times the nati onal percentage for this demographic ( of 13%). The age 0 to 17 demographic percentage (of 30%) is 3 percentage points higher than the corresponding national percentage for this demographic group (of 27%). The working age with disability demographic (of 1 4%) is 2 percentage points higher than the corresponding national percentage (of 12%). Finally , the linguisticall y isolated demographic (of 18.8%) is three
- and
- a - half times higher than the corresponding national percentage (of 5.4%)
. With respect to lead, the demographic results are below their corresponding national percentages for all racial and ethnic classifications, and similar to the national percentages for most other demographic categories. T here are modest percentage increases above the corr esponding national percentages with respect to people 18 to 64 y ears old (4 points higher), people 65 y ears old and older (4 points higher), people below the povert y line (2 points higher) and people over 25 without a high school diploma (5 points higher)
. However, considering that the total population affected is small (i.e., about 2 00 individuals in areas with lead concentrations above the NAAQS) , this does not represent an appreciable difference.

### 10

**Table 2. Summary of Demographic Assessment of Risk Results for the Secondary**  **L ead**  **S melting**  **Source Category**

Emissions Basis Demographic Group

Total Minority African

American Other and

Multiracial Hispanic

or Latino Native

American Ages

0 to 1 7 Ages

1 8 to 64 Ages 65 and up Below

the Poverty Level Over 25

Without a HS Diploma Working

Age with Disability Linguistic

Isolation Nationwide Demographic Breakdown n/a 285,339,128 25% 12% 12% 14% 0.9% 27% 60% 12% 13% 13% 12% 5.4%

Maximum Risk (in 1 million) Population With Cancer Risk Greater Than or Equal to 1 in 1 million Source Category 5 0 84,000 41% 8% 31% 52% 0.8% 30% 60% 9% 21% 25% 14% 18.8%

Maximum Lead Risk Population W ith Ambient Lead Concentration s Exceeding the NAAQS Source Category 20 Times the

Lead NAAQS 2 00 7% 5% 2% 2% 1.0% 20% 64% 16% 15% 18% 13% 2.0% Notes:  Source Category emissions were estimated based on ICR data collected in 2010
.  Minority population is the total population minus the white population.  Population figures are for the population residing within 50 km from the center of these facilities whose cancer risks are es timated to be greater than or equal to 1 in a million, or whose noncancer hazard indices are estimated to be greater than 1 (based on exceeding the NAAQS for lead).  The m aximum NAAQS exceedence for a centrally located point within any populated census block is 3
. (These locations are the block "internal points" as determined by the Bureau of Census
. ) How ever, am bient lead concentrations as high as 20 times the NAAQS were predicted for receptors in the HEM
- 3 polar receptor netw ork betw een the apparent plant boundary and the nearest points selected to represent populated census blocks.  There are no HIs > 1 for HA PS other than lead for the secondary lead smelting category.

### 11



# 5. **Uncertainty Discussion** Our anal ys is of the distribution of risks across various demographic groups is subject to the ty pical uncertainties associated with census data (e.g., errors in filling out and transcribing census forms), which are generall y thought to be small, as well as the additional uncertainties associated with the extrapolation of census
- block group data (e.g., income level and education level) down t o the census block level. The uncertainties in these risk estimates include the same uncertainties in emissions data sets, in air dispersion modeling, in inhalation exposure and in dose response relationships that are associated with our source categor y risk estimates. The methodology

for our demographic anal ys es is still evolving. While this is our best attempt to provide useful information now, our thinking is continuously advancing. EPA is in the process of developing technical guidance f or environmental justice analy ses. We present these anal ys es, with their associated uncertainties, to EPA decision makers and the public as additional anal ys es to inform RTR decisions.

### A
- 1 

### Appendix A

### A
- 2 Tota l popul ati on Whi

te Afri

can Ameri can Na ti

ve Am er ic an Othe r a nd mul ti raci al Hi sp anic o r La ti no c
0 t o 1 27,601,895 18,658,981 2, 498,583 162,547 6,281,784 7, 861,533 1 t o 5 78,352 46,263 6,189 676 25,224 42,115 5 t o 10 4, 500 2,872 705 18 905 1, 475 10 t o 20 532 350 66 2 114 136 20 t o 30 134 125 2 0 7 10 30 t o 40 79 69 7 1 2 3 40 t o 50 21 20 0 0 1 0 50 t o 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27,685,513 18,708,680 2, 505,552 163,244 6,308,037 7, 905,272 0. 0403 0. 0349 0. 055 0. 0477 0. 05 0. 0568 Note s:

c The Hi sp an ic or L ati no popul at ion is d oubl e- co unt ed i n th is an al ys is , si nc e d if feren t in di vi dua ls wi th in t he cat eg or y ma y cl as si fy t he ms el ve s as Wh

it e, Afri can Am eri can , Na ti ve Ameri can , or other . 

### Ta **ble A** **-1 . D**  **is tr** 

**ib ut** **io n**  **of In** **ha la**  **tion**

**C an** **ce r**  **Ri sk** **f**

**or R**  **aci al**  **an d**  **Eth nic**  **G ro**  **ups**

a Mode le d ri

sk s are fo r a 7 0- ye ar l

if et ime, b as ed on the predic te d outdoor

conc en trati on an d not ad

ju st ed f or ex pos ur e f act or s. F or

ex am pl e, 7 8,352 pe opl

e ar e p red ic te d to hav e a l if eti me i ndi vi dua l cancer

risk o f gr eater t ha n or eq ua l to 1 i n 1 mi llion but le ss t

ha n 5 in 1 m illion. Ra nge o f l

if et ime i ndi vi dua l can cer ri sk (ch ance i n one mi llio n) a

Av erag e ri

sk ( chances i

n one m illion)

b Di stri but ions by race are b as ed on de mogr aphi

c i nf orma ti on at t he cen su s b lo ck

l evel . Ri sks fro m se conda ry l ead sm el ti ng em is si ons were m

ode le d at t he cen su s b lo ck

l evel
. Mode le d ri

sk fro m the seconda ry

l ead so ur ce cat eg or

y Nu mbe rs o f p eopl

e i n di fferen t range s for lif

eti me can cer ri

sk b

### A
- 3 Tota l popul at ion Ag es 0

t hr u 17 Ag es 1 8 thru

64 Ag es 6 5 and

up
0 t o 1 27,601,895 7,441, 067 17,209,096 2,951,732 1 t o 5 78,352 23, 823 47,450 7,079 5 t o 10 4,500 1, 197 2,583 720 10 t o 20 532 140 323 69 20 t o 30 134 31 74 29 30 t o 40 79 10 55 14 40 t o 50 21 5 13 3 50 t o 100 0 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27,685,513 7,466, 273 17,259,594 2,959,646 0. 0403 0. 0433 0. 0394 0. 0378 Note s: 

### Ta **bl e**  **A-2 . D**  **is tr** 

**ibut io**  **n of**  **In ha**  **la tio**  **n Ca**  **nc er** 

**R is**  **k for D**  **iffe re**  **nt**

**A ge**  **G ro**  **ups**

Mode le d ri

sk fro m the seco nda ry

l ead sour ce cat eg ory

b Di stri but ions b y ag e ar e b ased

o n mode ling da ta and ag e dat a at t he cen su s b lo ck

l ev el
. Ra nge o f l

if et im e i ndi vi dua l cancer ri sk (chance i n one mi llion) a Nu

mbe rs o f p eopl

e i n di ffe re nt range s fo r l

if et im e cancer ri sk b

Av erag e r is k (c ha nc es i

n one mi llion)

a Mode le d ri

sk s are fo r a 7 0- ye ar

l if et im e, b ased o n the p red ic te d outdoor

co nc en trati on and not ad ju st ed fo r ex pos ur e fact or s. F orex am

pl e,7 8,352 pe opl

e are pre di

ct ed t o ha ve a lif et im e i ndi vi dua l cancer

ri sk o f g re at er t ha n oreq ua l to 1 in 1 m illio n but l ess t ha n 5 in 1 mi llion.

### A
- 4 Tota l popul at io n Tota l num

be r 25 an d ol de r Nu mbe r 2 5 and ol

de r wi th out a h ig h school di pl om a
0 t o 1 27,601,895 17,298,010 4,019,898 1 t o 5 78,352 43,763 19,696 5 t o 10 4,500 2,728 1,072 10 t o 20 532 331 72 20 t o 30 134 88 20 30 t o 40 79 53 15 40 t o 50 21 14 3 50 t o 100 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27,685,513 17,344,987 4,040,775 0. 0403 0. 0382 0. 0546 Note s: 

### Ta **bl e**  **A-3 . D**  **is tr** 

**ib ut** **io n**  **of In ha**  **la tio**  **n Ca**  **nc er**  **R is**  **k for A**  **dul ts**  **w ith**  **an d**  **wi th** **ou**

**t a Hig**  **h Sc**  **ho ol** 

**D ip** **lo ma** 

Mode le d ri

sk fro m the seco nda ry

l ead so ur ce cat eg or y

b Di stri buti ons b y ed uc at io n le ve l ar e b ased

o n mode lin g da ta at t he cen su s b lo ck

l ev el , an d ed uc at io n da ta at

t he b lo ck g roup le ve l. Al

l cen su s b lo ck s i

n a b lo ck g roup are assu

me d to ha ve t he sam e ed uc at io n le ve l di

st ri but io n. Ra nge o f l

if et im e i ndi vi dua l cancer ri sk (ch ance i n one m illion) a Nu

mbe rs o f p eo

pl e i n di ffe re nt ra nge s for l

if et im e cancer ri sk b

Av er ag e r is k (c ha nc es i

n one mi llio n)

a Mode le d ri

sk s are fo r a 7 0- ye ar

l if et im e,b ased o n the pre di

ct ed o utdoorco nc en

tra ti on and not ad just ed fo r ex pos ur e f act or s. F or

exam pl e,7 8,352 pe opl

e ar e p red ic te d to ha ve a l

if et im e in di vi dua l can cer ri sk o f g re at er t ha n or eq ua l to 1 in 1 m illion but l ess t ha n 5 in 1 m illion.

### A
- 5 Tota l popul at ion Peo

pl e l ivin g in hous ehol ds b el ow the nat iona l me di

an in co me c Peopl

e l iv ing be lo w t he pove rty l in e
0 t o 1 27,601,895 13,169,092 4,043,545 1 t o 5 78,352 48,939 16,087 5 t o 10 4,500 2,863 998 10 t o 20 532 249 45 20 t o 30 134 74 12 30 t o 40 79 51 16 40 t o 50 21 11 2 50 t o 100 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27,685,513 13,221,280 4,060,705 0. 0403 0. 0466 0. 0495 Note s:

c The m ed ia n in co me i s t he nat io na l me di

an hous ehol d inco me i n 1999, ab out $42,000. Mode le d ri

sk fro m the seco nda ry

l ead so ur ce cat eg ory

Av er ag e r is k (c ha nc es i

n one mi llion)

a Mode le d ri

sk s are fo r a 7 0- ye ar

l if et im e,b ased o n the pre di

ct ed outdoor co nc en tra ti on an d not ad just ed fo r ex pos ur e f act or s. F or

ex am pl e,7 8,352 pe opl

e ar e p red ic te d to ha ve a lif et im e i ndi vi dua l cancer

ri sk o f g re at er t ha n or eq ua l to 1 in 1 m illion but le ss t

ha n 5 in 1 mi llio n. b Di stri but ions b y inco me ar e b ased o n mode ling da ta at

t he cen su s b lo ck

l ev el , and inco me da ta at t he b lo ck g roup le ve l. Al

l cen su s b lo ck s i

n a b lo ck g roup ar e assu

me d to ha ve t

he same i nc ome d is tri but ion. 

### Ta **bl e**  **A- 4. D**  **is tr** 

**ib ut** **io n**  **of In ha**  **la tio**  **n Ca**  **nc er**  **R is**  **k f or**  **P eo**  **pl e**  **Liv in**  **g i n**  **Ho us**  **eh ol**  **ds b**  **el ow** 

**t he**  **N at** **io na**  **l Med** 

**ia n**  **In com** 

**e an**  **d Be**  **lo w**  **th e**  **Po ve**  **rt y L** **in e** 

Range o f l

if et im e i ndi vi dua l cancer ri sk (chance i n one mi llion) a Nu

mbe rs o f p eopl

e i n di ffe re nt ra nge s for l

if et im e cancer ri sk b

### A
- 6 Tota l popul at ion Wo rk

ing ag ed p eopl e wi th a d is ab ilit y Pe opl

e l iving in lingui st ic i so la ti on
0 t o 1 27,601,895 3,271,957 3,292,353 1 t o 5 78,352 10,980 15,293 5 t o 10 4,500 657 408 10 t o 20 532 51 18 20 t o 30 134 15 1 30 t o 40 79 12 3 40 t o 50 21 2 0 50 t o 100 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27,685,513 3,283,674 3,308,076 0. 0403 0. 0457 0. 0475 Note s: a Mode le d ri

sk s are fo r a 7 0- ye ar

l if et im e,b ased o n the pre di

ct ed outdoor co nc en tra ti on an d not ad just ed fo r ex pos ur e f act or s. F or

ex am pl e,7 8,352 pe opl

e ar e p red ic te d to ha ve a lif et im e i ndi vi dua l cancer

ri sk o f g re at er t ha n or eq ua l to 1 in 1 m illion but le ss t

ha n 5 in 1 mi llio n. b Di stri but ions o f d

is ab ilit y and lingui

st ic i so la ti on ar e b ased

o n mo de ling da ta at

t he cen su s bl oc k le ve l,an

d de mo gr aphi

c p opul at ion da ta at

t he b lo ck g ro up le ve l. Al

l cen sus b lo ck s in a b lo ck g ro up ar e assu

me d to ha ve t

he same d

is ab ilit y and lingui

st ic i so la ti on popul at ion di st ri but ions . 

### Ta **bl e**  **A-5 . D**  **is tr** 

**ib ut**  **io n**  **of In** **ha la**  **tio n**  **Ca nc**  **er**

**Ri sk**  **for P**  **eo pl**  **e Liv**  **in g w** 

**ith Di**  **sa bi** **litie s**  **an d**  **in**

**L in**  **gu is**  **tic Is**  **ol ati**  **on** Range o f l

if et im e i ndi vi dua l cancer ri sk (chance i n one mi llion) a Nu

mbe rs o f p eopl

e i n di ffe re nt ra nge s for l

if et im e cancer ri sk b

Mode le d ri

sk fro m the seco nda ry

l ead so ur ce cat eg ory

Av er ag e r is k (c ha nc es i

n one mi llion)

### A
- 7 Tota l popul ati on Wh

it e Afri

can Ameri can Na ti

ve Am er ic an Oth er an

d mult ir aci al Hisp anic o r La ti no c
0 t o 0. 2 27,664,846 18,697,438 2, 503,093 163,066 6,301,249 7,894,768 0. 2 t o 1 20,470 11,059 2,450 176 6, 785 10,500 1 t o 1. 5 99 96 2 1 0 1 1. 5 to 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 t o 3 69 66 0 1 2 3 3 t o 4 29 21 7 0 1 0 4 t o 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27,685,513 18,708,680 2, 505,552 163,244 6,308,037 7,905,272 0. 0022 0. 0018 0. 0031 0. 0027 0. 0029 0. 0034 Note s:

c The Hi sp an ic or L ati no popul ati on is d oubl e- count ed i n th is an al ys is , si nc e d if fere nt i ndi vi dua ls wi th in t he cat eg or y ma y cl as si fy t he ms el ve s as Wh

it e, Afri can Am eri can , Nat ive Ameri

can , or other . 

### Ta **bl e**  **A-6 . Di**  **st ri** **but ion** 

**of In** **ha la**  **tion**

**H az**  **ar d**  **In dic**  **es fo**  **r Ra**  **cial an d**  **Et hni**  **c G ro**  **ups**

a Mode le d conc en

tra ti ons rel at ive t o the l

ead NAAQS ar e b ased

on 3- mont

h ma xi mum le ad conc en trati ons . For ex am pl e, 2 9 pe opl

e ar e predic te d to be ex

pos ed t o le ad co nc en tra ti ons g re at er t ha n or eq ua l to 3 b ut l ess tha n 4 ti me s t he l ead NAAQS (3 rounde d to

1 si gni fi can t fi gur e); that

i s, 2 9 pe opl e are ex pos ed to a l ead co nc en tra ti on 3 ti me s t he NAAQS
. Av erag e

b Di stri but ions by race are b as ed on de mogr aphi

c i nf or ma ti on at t he cen su s b lo ck

l evel . Ri sks fro m se conda ry l ead sm el ti ng em is si ons were m

ode le d at t he cen su s b lo ck

l evel
. Mode le d le ad

co nc en tra ti ons rel at iv e t o the le ad NAAQS a Nu mb ers o f p eo

pl e i n di ffere nt ran ge s fo r l if et ime h azar d in di

ces b

### A
- 8 Tota l popul at ion Ag es 0

t hr u 17 Ag es 1 8 thru

64 Ag es 6 5 and

up
0 t o 0. 2 27,664,846 7,460, 299 17,247,120 2,957,427 0. 2 t o 1 20,470 5, 935 12,348 2,187 1 t o 1. 5 99 24 60 15 1. 5 to 2 0 0 0 0 2 t o 3 69 14 44 11 3 t o 4 29 1 22 6 4 t o 5 0 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27,685,513 7,466, 273 17,259,594 2,959,646 0. 0022 0. 0024 0. 0021 0. 002 Note s: 

### Ta **bl e**  **A-7 . D**  **is tr**  **ib ut**  **io n**  **of H**  **az ar**  **d In**  **di ce**  **s fo**  **r Di**  **ffe re**  **nt**

**A ge**  **G ro**  **ups**

Mode le d le ad

conc en tra ti ons rel at ive t o the l

ead NAAQS a

b Di stri but ions b y ag e ar e b ased

o n mode ling da ta and ag e dat a at t he cen su s b lo ck

l ev el
. Nu mbe rs o f p eopl

e i n di ffe re nt range s fo r l

if et im e h az ar d indi ces b

Av erag e

a Mode le d conc en

tra ti ons rel at ive t o the l

ead NAAQS ar e b ased

o n 3- mont

h ma xi mu m le ad co nc en tra ti ons . F or exam pl e,2 9 pe opl

e are pre di

ct ed t o be ex pos ed t o le ad conc en tra ti ons gr eat er t ha n or eq ua l to 3 but le ss t

ha n 4 ti me s t he l ead NAAQS (3 ro

unde d to 1 si

gni fi can t fi gur e) ; tha t is , 29 pe opl

e are ex pos ed t o a l ead co nc en tra ti on 3 ti me s t he NAAQS
.

### A
- 9 Tota l popul at ion Tota l numbe r 25 and ol de r Nu mb er 2 5 and ol de r wi thout a h ig h school di pl om a
0 t o 0. 2 27,664,846 17, 333, 568 4,035,428 0. 2 t o 1 20,470 11, 292 5,313 1 t o 1. 5 99 62 17 1. 5 to 2 0 0 0 2 t o 3 69 49 11 3 t o 4 29 16 7 4 t o 5 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27,685,513 17, 344, 987 4,040,775 0. 0022 0. 002 0. 0031 Note s: 

### Ta **bl e**  **A-8 . D**  **is tr** 

**ib ut**  **io n**  **of H**  **az ar**  **d In**  **di ce**  **s fo**  **r Ad** 

**ul ts**  **w ith**  **an d**  **wi th** **ou**

**t a H**  **ig h**  **Sch ool**  **D ip** **lo ma** 

Mode le d le ad

conc en tra ti ons rel at ive t o the l

ead NAAQS a

b Di stri but ions b y ed

uc at ion le ve l ar e b ased

o n mo de ling da ta at

t he cen sus b lo ck

l ev el , an d ed uc at ion da ta at

t he b lo ck g ro up le ve l. Al

l cen su s b lo cks i

n a b lo ck g ro up ar e assu

me d to ha ve t he sam e ed uc at ion le ve l di

stri buti on. Nu mb er s o f p eopl

e i n di ffe re nt ra nge s fo r l

if et im e ha za rd i ndi ces b

Av erag e

a Mode le d conc en

tra ti ons rel at ive t o the l

ead NAAQS ar e b ased

o n 3- month ma xi

mum le ad co nc en tra ti ons . F or exam pl e,2 9 pe opl

e are pre di

ct ed t o be ex pos ed t o le ad conc en tra ti ons gr eat er t ha n or eq ua l to 3 but le ss t

ha n 4 ti me s t he l ead NAAQS (3 rounde d to 1 si gni fi can t fi gur e) ; tha t is , 29 pe opl

e are ex pos ed t o a l ead conc en tra ti on 3 ti me s t he NAAQS
.

### A
- 10 Tota l popul at io n Peopl

e l iving in hous ehol ds b el ow the nat iona l me di

an inco me c Peopl

e l iv ing be lo w t he pove rty l ine
0 t o 0. 2 27, 664,846 13,207,922 4,055,955 0. 2 t o 1 20,470 13,237 4,721 1 t o 1. 5 99 60 12 1. 5 to 2 0 0 0 2 t o 3 69 36 6 3 t o 4 29 24 11 4 t o 5 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27, 685,513 13,221,280 4,060,705 0. 0022 0. 0026 0. 0028 No te s: 

### Ta **bl e**  **A-9 . D**  **is tr** 

**ib ut** **io n**  **of H**  **az ar**  **d In**  **di ce**  **s fo**  **r Pe**  **op le**  **L iv**  **in g i**  **n Ho**  **us eh** **ol ds**  **be lo**  **w th**  **e Na**  **tio na**  **l Med**  **ia n**  **In com** 

**e an**  **d Be**  **lo w**  **th e**  **Po ve**  **rt y L** **in e**  Nu mbe rs o f p eopl

e i n di ffe re nt ra nge s fo

r l if et im e ha za rd i ndi ces b

c The m ed ia n in co me i s t he nat iona l me di

an hous eh ol d inco me i n 1999, ab out

$ 42,000. Mode le d le ad

conc en tra ti ons rel at iv e t o the l

ead NAAQS a

Av erag e

a Mode le d conc en

tra ti ons rel at ive t o the l

ead NAAQS ar e b ased

o n 3- mont

h ma xi mum le ad conc en tra ti ons . F orex am

pl e, 2 9 pe opl e are pre di

ct ed t o be ex pos ed t o le ad co nc en tra ti ons g reat er t ha n or eq ua l to 3 but le ss t

ha n 4 ti me s t he l ead NAAQS (3 rounde d to 1 si

gni fi can t fi gur e) ; tha t is , 29 pe opl

e ar e ex pos ed t o a l ead co nc en trati on 3 ti me s t he NAAQS
. b Di st ri but ions b y income ar e b ased o n mode lin

g da ta at t he cen su s b lo ck

l ev el , and inco me da ta at t he b lo ck g ro up le ve l. Al

l cen su s b lo ck s i

n a b lo ck g roup are assu

me d to ha ve t

he sam e i nc ome d is tri but ion.

### A
- 11 Tota l popul at io n Worki

ng ag ed p eopl e wi th a d is ab ilit y Pe opl

e l iving in lingui st ic i so la ti on
0 t o 0. 2 27, 664,846 3,280,593 3,303,987 0. 2 t o 1 20,470 3,055 4,085 1 t o 1. 5 99 12 1 1. 5 to 2 0 0 0 2 t o 3 69 7 2 3 t o 4 29 6 1 4 t o 5 0 0 0 Tota l numbe r 27, 685,513 3,283,673 3,308,076 0. 0022 0. 0025 0. 0029 No te s: a Mode le d conc en

tra ti ons rel at ive t o the l

ead NAAQS ar e b ased

o n 3- mont

h ma xi mum le ad conc en tra ti ons . F orex am

pl e, 2 9 pe opl e are pre di

ct ed t o be ex pos ed t o le ad co nc en tra ti ons g reat er t ha n or eq ua l to 3 but le ss t

ha n 4 ti me s t he l ead NAAQS (3 rounde d to 1 si

gni fi can t fi gur e) ; tha t is , 29 pe opl

e ar e ex pos ed t o a l ead co nc en trati on 3 ti me s t he NAAQS
. b Di st ri but ions o f d

is ab ilit y and lingui

sti c i so la ti on ar e b ased

o n mode ling da ta at

t he cen sus bl oc k le ve l,an

d de mogr ap

hi c p opul at io n da ta at t he b lo ck g roup le ve l. Al

l cen sus b lo ck s in a b lo ck g ro up are assu

me d to ha ve t

he sam e d is ab ilit y an d lin gui sti c i so la ti on popul at ion di st ri but ions . 

### Ta **bl e**  **A-1 0. D**  **is tr** 

**ib ut** **io n**  **of H**  **az ar**  **d In**  **di ce**  **s fo**  **r Pe**  **op le**  **L iv**  **in g w**  **ith D**  **is ab** **ilitie s**  **an d**  **in L** **in gu**  **is tic**  **Is ol**  **at io**  **n** Nu mbe rs o f p eopl

e i n di ffe re nt ra nge s fo

r l if et im e ha za rd i ndi ces b

Mode le d le ad

conc en tra ti ons rel at iv e t o the l

ead NAAQS a

Av erag e