AREA HARVESTED

SUGARBEETS

STATE IND
1987 1988 1987 : 1988 1986 1987 j988
1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
CALIF 215.0 212.0 27.7 += 26.0 4,832 5,956 5,512
coLo 37.0 38.5 21.7 21.5 889 803 828
IDAHO 162.0 166.0 26.4 24.5 4,112 4,277 4,067
MICH 142.0 147.0 20.5 19.0 2,288 2,911 2,793
MINN 310.0 330.0 20.0 14.5 5,194 6,200 4,785
MONT 48.9 49.0 22.2 21.5 1,016 1,086 1,054
NEBR 60.2 62.6 18.3 21.0 1,387 1, 102 1,315
N MEX : .2 4 10.0 20.0 2/ 2 8
N DAK > 161.3 172.0 19.6 14.0 2,932 3,161 2,408
OHIO > 16.2 14.8 16.6 18.0 309 269 266
OREG : 13.7 14.2 30.8 28.3 374 422 402
TEX : 31.5 33.0 19.7 21.0 829 621 693
wYo 53.4 56.3 21.1 19.5 1,000 1,127 1,098
US :1,251.4 1,295.8 22.3 19.5 25,162 27,937 25,229

1/_ RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR SPRING PLANTED BEETS OVER-
WINTERED IN CALIF. 2/ NOT ESTIMATED.

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

AREA HARVESTED

PRODUCTION

STATE IND : IND:
1987 1988 : 1987: 1988:

a 1,000 ACRES “TONS 1,000 TONS

FLA : 417.0 420.0 32.3 © 33.0~=—«13,446~=—«(13,469 «13,860

HAW 86.5 88.0 94.7 96.5 8,587 8,195 8.492

LA > 285.0 3000 22.7 26.0 +=«7,371:~=Cfs«w 469s 7,800

TEX 35.1 33.2 30.9 29.0 907 1,085 963
30,311 29,218 +31, 115

CROP PRODUCTION,
SEPTEMBER 1988

A-20

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA


INDEX

z
>
QR
mi

Ch es occ cccccncceercceceens teeeeecees
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE
CITRUS
COFFEE ..

Cee)
No-s

COTTONSEED ........
CROP MOISTURE MAPS .
GRAPES .cccseceeseees
COMMODITY HISTORY .
NUTS ..esseeee
PAPAYAS-HAWAIT ....eseeeeeerees
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION
PEANUTS FOR NUTS ....eceeeecevece
PEARS ...ceceeee

PECANS ..
POTATOES . oe
PRUNES AND PLUMS ....
RELIABILITY OF FORECA:
RICE .ocecececeeececee
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN ...
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS ..
SPECIAL SURVEY .
SUGARBEETS ....ssecsesseeses . A-20

1
NINN NNN

1
CNWWHEAAAHABWWOOPRROUANGO

PEP SSP rE yrryrryprarrrrrr>e

'
=
w

TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE .
TOBACCO BY STATES .....06.
US SUMMARY .....
WHEAT, ALL ......
WHEAT, BY CLASSES ...
WHEAT, DURUM ........
WHEAT, OTHER SPRING .

FEI III I IRI IR III TR IITA II IIT TI IIIT II IIIT I I IIIS I IIIS I IIIS ISIS IIIS I.
NOTICE *
*

Requests for a subscription order form covering al] available reports *
should be directed to Agricultural Statistics Board Publications, Room *
5829-South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-4021).*

*

This report and other statistical, economic, marketing and news reports *
are available as soon as possible following release through USDA‘s EDI
SERVICE. For more information, call or write: Russell Forte, (202)
447-5505, OGPA, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250.

HE HHH HHH
+ OF OF

The next issue of this report will be published October 12, 1988
KIKI IK KI IK ISI IIIA ISA IISIEIIAR IAI AISI IIS SII III IIIS AISI AISI IRIS ARIK.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 8~16 NASS, USDA


PISTACHIOS: The California pistachio production forecast is a record 95.0

million pounds (in shell basis), a-187 percent increase from last
year's low crop and a 27 percent increase from the previous record set in
1986. This record forecast level is primarily due to the alternate bearing
characteristic of pistachio trees and an increase in bearing acreage. Bearing
acreage is 44.5 thousand acres, up 10 percent from last year's 40.3 thousand
acres. This estimate will result in a yield of 2135 pounds per bearing acre,
3 percent below 1986 which was the most recent high yield year in the
alternate bearing cycle. The 1988 crop appears to be in very good condition.
Nut size and quality are expected to be normal. Verticilluim wilt seems to be
a problem only in isolated areas. Nut blanking appears to be very low. The
number of nuts per cluster are about average and up from last year's very low
count. These factors, plus being on the high side of the crop's alternate
bearing cycle, account for production being up considerably from last year.
Some growers started shaking trees during Labor Day weekend. Harvest is
expected to be in full-swing by mid-September.

PECANS: The first forecast for the pecan crop in the 11 estimating States is
273 miltion pounds, in~shell basis, 4 percent higher than Tast year's
production but virtually the same as the 1986 crop.

The Georgia pecan forecast is 105 million pounds, 9 percent below 1987
production. Field observations and grower reports vary widely throughout the
State. Recent rains will help increase nut size. Heavy nut drop has been
reported in some groves, but this is not prevalent statewide. The Alabama
forecast is 12.0 million pounds, 52 percent below tast year. Drought
conditions during April, May, and June have had a significant impact on this
year's crop, Growers have reported that the dry weather has caused a
premature nut drop on many trees. The Florida pecan estimate, at 4.50 million
pounds, is 18 percent below last year. The pecan forecast for Louisiana is
30.0 million pounds, up 58 percent from the 1987 crop. The Arkansas pecan
forecast is 3.00 million pounds, more than double last season. The North
Carolina pecan estimate is 3.50 million pounds, three-quarters higher than the
1987 crop. The South Carolina forecast is 4.00 million pounds, up 18 percent
from the previous year. The Mississippi crop is forecast at 10.0 million
pounds, 17 percent below last year. New Mexico's pecan forecast is 29.0
million pounds, up 16 percent from last season. Oklahoma is expecting a crop
of 27.0 million pounds, more than double last year's production. The Texas
pecan crop forecast is for 45.0 million pounds, up 7 percent from 1987
production. Nut sets have been good overall across the State. How much
moisture is received during September will determine how well the nuts fill.
Harvest should begin in south and east Texas during mid to late September.

FILBERTS: Filbert production in Oregon and Washington is estimated at 18,000

tons this year. This level would be 17 percent below 1987 but the
fourth largest crop of record. The Oregon crop is expected to total 17,700
tons and Washington growers will harvest 300 tons in 1988.

Filbert trees were affected by a very dry fall and winter, resulting in
unfavorable pollination conditions. Nut set was lighter than in 1987;
however, nut size and weight are above 1987 averages. Although not
widespread, evidence of brown stain has been more common this year than last.
The development of the 1988 crop is later than normal, and there is concern
over hot, dry weather restricting full development of kernels in some
orchards. The number of bearing trees continues to increase overall. A
number of orchards, however, have been removed or severely pruned back in an
effort to control the Eastern Filbert Blight.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-12 NASS, USDA


COTTON

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

IND

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 2/
UPLAND 2 .

ALA : 333.0 375.0 572 499 330.0 397.0 390.0
ARIZ 2 289.0 339.0 1,410 1,317 675.0 849.0 930.0
ARK 3 550.0 670.0 786 716 602.0 901.0 1,000.0
CALIF: 1,140.0 1,335.0 1,259 1,061 2,245.0 2,989.0 2,950.0
FLA 3/: 29.0 28.0 646 600 28.0 39.0 35.0
GA 2 245.0 320.0 662 510 185.0 338.0 340.0
9 9 480 533 “7 ) 1.0
600.0 615.0 782 702 673.0 977.0 $00.0
1,010.0 1,180.0 829 732 1,190.0 1,745.0 1,800.0
189.0 218.0 838 705 196.0 330.0 320.0
62.0 66.0 689 684 62.0 89.0 94.0
95.0 120.0 495 540 109.0 98.0 13540
400.0 410.0 415 340 210.0 346.0 290.0
119.0 142.0 428 490 87.0 106.0 145.0
435.0 545.0 700 599 396.0 634.0 680.0
4,400.0 5,100.0 506 405 2,535.0 4,635.0 4,300.0
1.8 3.0 373 544 1.5 1.4 3.4
9,898.7 11,466.9 702 599 9,525.2 14,475.3 14,313.4
90.8 139.7 1,126 1,065 148.3 213.0 310.0
9 1.8 1,173 960 0 2.2 3.6
13.9 16.0 642 660 16.6 18.6 22.0
31.0 39.5 787 729 41.0 50.8 60.0
136.6 197.0 1,000 964 205.9 284.6 395.6
333.0 375.0 572 499 330.0 397.0 390.0
379.8 478.7 1,342 1,243 823.3 1,062.0 1,240.0
550.0 670.0 786 716 602.0 901.0 1,000.0
1,140.9 1,336.8 1,258 1,061 2,245.0 2,991.2 2,953.6
29.0 28.0 646 600 28.0 39.0 35.0
245.0 320.0 662 510 185.0 338.0 340.0
9 -9 480 533 7 9 1.0
600.0 615.0 782 702 673.0 977.0 900.0
1,010.0 1,180.0 829 732 1,190.0 1,745.0 1,800.0
189.0 218.0 838 705 196.0 330.0 320.0
75.9 82.0 680 679 78.6 107.6 116.0
95.0 120.0 495 540 109.0 98.0 135.0
400.0 410.0 415 340 210.0 346.0 290.0
119.0 142.0 428 490 87.0 106.0 145.0
435.0 545.0 700 599 396.0 634.0 680.0
4,431.0 5,139.5 508 407 2,576.0 4,685.8 4,360.0
1.8 3.0 373 544 1.5 1.4 3.4
0,035.3 11,663.9 706 605 9,731.1 14,759.9 14,709.0

1/7 PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED. 2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

PRODUCTION

1986

1,000 TONS

STATE

5,769

CROP PROOUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-14 NASS, USDA


NUTS

PRODUCTION

FILBERTS 1/
OREG

14,900
WASH 200
TOTAL 15,100
WALNUTS
CALIF 180,000
PISTACHIO NUTS
CALIF
MARKETABLE _IN-SHELL 53,500
SHELLING STOCK 215400
TOTAL 74,900

21,500 17,700

300 30

21,800 18,000
247,000 200,000

1,000 POUNDS
(IN-SHELL BASIS)

29,000 2)
45100 2
33,100 95,000

Vv ESTIMATES FoR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARL

R FORECAST.

2/__ PRODUCTION BY TYPE OF SALE WILL BE PUBLISHED IN THE "NON-~CITRUS FRUIT AND
NUTS ANNUAL SUMMARY" TO BE RELEASED IN JANUARY 1989.

PECANS

CROP AND STATE

ALA 9,600
ARK 900
FLA 3,100
GA 100,000
LA 4,000
MISS 4,500
N MEX 27,000
NC 13800
OKLA 13500
sc 33250
TEX 27,000
us 182,650
PECANS NATIVE & SEEDLING :

ALA : 6,400
ARK z 300
FLA 2,400
GA 20,000
LA 26,000
MISS 3,000
NC : 2,200
OKLA : 13,600
sc : 3,250
TEX 2 13,000

: 90,050

: 16,000

37° BUDDED,

GRAFTED,

CROP PRODUCTION,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-24

“oR TOPWORKED VARIETIES.

“prooucr ion

1,000 POUNDS

13,750
800 1,860
3,100
100,000 90,000
2,500
8,000
25,000
1,200
7,000
25300
22,000

179,650
11,250
i}

30,000
178,160

3,600
13140

42,000
262,200

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

PRODUCTION

SEP 2,
1988

1,000
CORN FOR GRAIN BU : W19.4 78.5 7,064,143 4,479,385 4,462,475
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN "“ : 69.9 59.9 740,869 560,532 540,067
BARLEY . : 52.6 38.8 527,010 287,702 286,908
ALL WHEAT " : 37.6 34,2 2,105,200 1,821,078 1,809,638
DURUM . 28.2 16.7 92,617 54,580 49,200
OTHER SPRING . 33.7 20.0 211,686 205,626
RICE cwr 33; 152,556 152,286

? *
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 8U 7 25.9 1,904,712 1,473,986 1,472,376

PEANUTS FOR NUTS LB 2 2,341 2,625 3,619,440 4,338,100 4,326,300
ALL COTTON BALE : 706 605 14,759.9 143934.0 14,709.0

UPLAND « : 702 599 14,475.3 14,548.4 14,313.4

AMER-PIMA “ 1,000 964 284.6 385.6 395.6
COTTONSEED TON : 5,769 5,844 5,749
ORY EDIBLE BEANS CWT : 1,540 1,364 26,309 21,035 19,805
POTATOES :

SUMMER CWT : 228 218 22,797 19,715 19,800

TOTAL 2/ “ 2 30.1 - 385,493
TOBACCO CB =: 2,028 2,702 1,790,674 1,262,397 1,304,228
SUGARBEETS TON : 22.3 19.5 27,937 25,723 25,229
SUGARCANE FOR 3

SUGAR AND SEED " : 35.5 37.0 29,218 31,115 31,115
PASTURE AND 5

RANGE FEED 3/ rer 3 76 54
PEARS TON : 940.3 818.1 798.1
GRAPES . 3 5,264.0 5,508.5 5,456.5
ORIED PRUNES 3

(CALIF) ” : 228.0 4/ 160.0 160.0
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) ” : 53.5 50.0 51.5
FILBERTS. " : . 21.8 5/ 18.0
PECANS LB 262,200 273,000
PISTASHIO NUTS
* (CALIF) . 33,100 95,000
WALNUTS (CALIF) TON 247.0 47 210.0 200.0

7 YIELD IN POUNDS. 2/ 1987 REVISED. 3/ PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION
AS OF FIRST OF MONTH, THE 1977-86 AVERAGE IS 75 PERCENT. 4/ JUL 1, 1988.
5/ AS OF MID-AUGUST.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE

PRODUCTION

CROP fawn w wenn ane wa nee acct n ne ne teen ne ee ne eeeeneee neces
AND 3 INDICATED INDICATED
UNIT 1988 1/
OATS BU: 54.0 38.4 373,765 206,330
WINTER WHEAT «oy 39.8 39.2 1,562,896 1,554,812
ALL HAY TON = 2.46 1.97 149,142 130,509
ALFALFA "ot 3.32 2:71 84,554 697487
ALL OTHER wor 1.83 1.51 64,588 61,022
POTATOES :
WINTER CWT : 214 230 2,501 2,824
SPRING wo: 220 251 17,724 19,831
FALL 2/ “oo 315 342,477
HOPS LB: 1,768 1,671 50,048 53,810
APPLES, COM'L wo: 10,542,600 8,073,100
PEACHES “og 2,428,800 2,527,800
SWEET CHERRIES TON + 210.8 168.8
TART CHERRIES LB: 358,500 206,500
APRICOTS "og 115.0 100.8
NECTARINES (CALIF) "oy 191.0 195.0
PLUMS (CALIF) “oy 245.0 250.0
OLIVES (CALIF) "ou 67.5 85.
ALMONDS (CALIF) LB 660,000 580,000

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER “FORECAST. 27 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 AWS NASS, USDA



CALIFORNIA NAVEL ORANGES: The initial forecast for the 1988-89 California

Navel orange crop is 35.0 million boxes, 17 percent
greater than last season and 1 percent above the 1986-87 crop. The crop is
progressing normally with good quality expected. Individual fruit size is
smaller than last year, but a larger set is expected.

PEARS: The final forecast for the U.S. pear crop is 798 thousand tons, down 2
percent from August 1 and 15 percent less than the 1987 crop.

Harvest continues in Michigan and New York. The drought has caused fruit
size to be small.

The Bartlett crop in California, Oregon and Washington is forecast at 485
thousand tons, down 4 percent from August 1 and down 16 percent from last
year. Harvest is complete in California. The July heat wave caused fruit
size and quality to vary from orchard to orchard. Fruit quality was reduced
in the Northern Coast area by hail and early season frost damage. Harvest
began in mid-August in Oregon. Quality has been generally good. Fruit have
not sized as well as expected in the Hood River District. Picking is nearing
completion in Washington. Fruit are smaller than normal but size is better
than expected.

Other than Bartlett pears are forecast at 276 thousand tons, unchanged
from August 1 but 16 percent less than 1987. Harvest is nearing completion in
California. Quality has been good but sizes have varied. Harvest is active
in Washington.

GRAPES: The U.S. grape crop is forecast at 5.46 million tons, down 1 percent
from the August 1 forecast but 4 percent above last year's production.

Only California, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington had the
opportunity to change their August 1 forecast. The August 1 forecast was
carried forward for the remaining States.

California's production at 4.95 million tons, is 6 percent above last
year. The California raisin variety grape forecast is 2.25 million tons,
unchanged from the August 1 forecast but 2 percent above 1987 production.
Raisin harvest got off to a very late start this season because of slow
maturity of the crop. Hot weather during late August and early September has
caused much concern over the size and quality of the crop. The dry-away ratio
is expected to be very high, reflecting lower crop quality than the past two
years. Raisin varieties harvested for wine also fell behind the pace of the
previous two years. Approximately 25,000 acres of Thompson seedless grapes
are enrolled in the 1988 Raisin Administrative Committee raisin diversion
program compared to 15,000 in 1987 and 50,000 in 1986.

The California wine variety forecast of 2.05 million tons is unchanged
from August I but 5 percent above [987 output. The 1988 harvest got off to
the slowest start in several years. By August 27, only 285,000 tons of wine
grapes had been crushed, down 62 percent from both the 1987 and 1986 harvest
rates. Record hot temperatures during August contributed to the slow
maturity, Wineries in most areas crushed at a furious pace by the first week
of September as grape maturities bunched together. Production costs were much
higher for some growers because of increased water pumping costs this summer.

The California table variety grape forecast is 650 thousand tons, down 4
percent from August 1 but 27 percent above the 1987 crop. Table grape harvest
began in mid-May in the Coachella Valley. Harvest spread to the San Joaquin
Valley in late June. Some crop reduction is expected from record high
temperatures which caused higher amounts of shattered clusters and split
berries,

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-10 NASS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/

STATE : AVERAGE : 1987 : 1988 :: STATE : AVERAGE : 1987
: 1977-86 : : tt : 1977-86:
: PERCENT Hy H PERCENT

ALA $ 74 68 63:2: NEV : 82 69 58
ARIZ: 78 81 98 oi: NH 85 84 95
ARK : 68 64 51 oi: NO : 76 75 66
CALIF : 82 69 64 :: NMEX : 80 89 99
colo: 79 77 68 NY : 77 80 60
CONN: 81 58 70 os: NC : 74 52 65
DEL : 72 37 63 :: N DAK : 68 85 22
FLA : 84 80 89 :: OHIO : 80 66 64
GA : 68 60 59 :: OKLA : 70 83 52
IDAHO : 83 67 35 o:: OREG : 8} 70 64
ILL : 76 75 43:3: PA : 77 56 56
IND : 80 71 52 a: RI : 88 50 90
IOWA: 77 90 27 ts SC : 67 60 54
KANS  : 75 88 58 :: S DAK : 75 80 39
KY : 79 65 71 o:: TENN : 77 69 56
LA : 77 83 79 3: ~TEX : 59 74 50
MAINE : 82 67 85 :: UTAH : 82 84 57
MD : 73 48 57 ot: VT : 81 83 80
MASS: 84 74 80 :: VA : 79 37 72
MICH: 79 76 62 :: WASH : 78 72 69
MINN: 80 78 37 os: WVA 80 36 49
MISS): 76 77 60 :: WIS : 83 80 39
MO H 69 80 53 :: WYO 3 82 86 42
MONT =: 71 85 2900 tt :

NEBR: 80 84 64 3: US : 75 76 54

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64;
SEVERE DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-21 NASS, USDA


AUGUST WEATHER SUMMARY

Hot, humid conditions gripped the eastern two-thirds of the Nation during
the first half of the month. Several stations in the East set records for the
highest number of days of 90 degrees or above for the summer of 1988. Fronta
systems brought cooler weather and beneficial rain in the latter part of the
month, Record heat and dry weather predominated the western third of the
country contributing to the continuing forest fires in the Northwest.
(Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility.)

AUGUST CROP DEVELOPMENT

As the month began, hot, dry weather persisted throughout most of the
eastern half of the Nation, but precipitation gave some relief in the central
and northern Great Plains, Southeast, northwestern Corn Belt, and Indiana.
Crop condition remained fairly stable but without moisture began declining in
some States. The rains continued but crops showed little improvement. At
midmonth, severe heat returned, stressing crops throughout most of the eastern
half of the Nation. The extreme high temperatures and the lack of moisture
hastened crop maturity. Cotton and soybean plants wilted and began dropping
fruit in some areas. The last week of August, cooler temperatures brought
relief to crops in the northern Great Plains and Corn Belt and precipitation
relieved crop stress in much of the Corn Belt, Delta, and Southeast.

During August, corn was mostly poor to fair. On August 28, most of the
acreage had reached the dough stage. Seventy percent of the acreage was in
the dent stage, compared with 80 percent in 1987 and 53 percent normally.
Corn mature was 7 points ahead of the average but trailed 8 point behind
1987. Corn harvest was underway as far North as Missouri as the month drew to
a close. In Georgia, harvest reached 42 percent completion but lagged 12
points behind the 54 percent average. Karvest was active in Alabama,
Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas.

The precipitation and cooler temperatures provided relief from the heat
but soybean condition remained mostly fair during the month. The heat
hastened maturity with soybeans turning yellow much sooner than normal. By
midmonth soybeans turned yellow in Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and
Alabama and dropped leaves in Minnesota. Before the month ended, soybeans were
dropping leaves in all major producing States except Arkansas, Michigan,
Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, and South Carolina. Seven percent of the
acreage was dropping leaves, more than doubling the average but trailed 3
points behind 1987. Soybeans setting pods equaled the average at 89 percent

* Completion. Soybeans blooming were mostly finished except in the Southeast
an elta.

Cotton endured the hot, dry weather better than most crops and was good to
fair the entire month. Crop condition declined slightly as the month
progressed. In California and Arizona, the hot weather caused plants to drop
squares and bolls early in the month. Oklahoma's cotton experienced heat
stress near midmonth with some stands wilting and plants dropping bolls.
Prolonged dryness caused heavy boll shedding in scattered fields in the Texas
Plains. Near the end of August, 23 percent of the cotton acreage reached the
boll opening stage, compared with 33 percent in 1987 and 23 percent normally.
In Texas, harvest was 12 percent finished, 3 points above 1987 and the
average. Harvest was underway in Arkansas, Arizona, and Louisiana. Producers
applied defoliants in California and Mississippi.

Grain sorghum was 93 percent headed, compared with 89 percent normally.
Forty-seven percent of the acreage turned color, 2 points ahead of average but
9 points behind 1987. Harvest was underway in Texas, South Carolina, North
Carolina, Arkansas, Alabama, and Louisiana.

Winter wheat harvest neared completion in the Pacific Northwest by the end
of August. Seeding was underway in Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Arkansas, Texas,
and Washington. Seeding reached 20 percent completion in Minnesota. Spring
wheat harvest was virtually finished by the third week of August. However, a
few fields remained to be harvested in Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota as the
month drew to a close.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-2 NASS, USDA


PRODUCT ION 1/

CROP AND STATE TOTAL
nen ene en nen ee een c ene en eee nee 1988
1986 1987
TONS
GRAPES TABLE TYPE :
CALIF 620,000 510,000 650,000
GRAPES WINE TYPE
CALIF : 2,105,000 1,950,000 2,050,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE 2/ 3/
CALIF 2,045,000 2,200,000 2,250,000
ALL GRAPES
ARIZ 23,000 31,000 27,500
ARK : 6 000 5,000 7,000
CALIF : 4,770,000 4,660,000 4,950,000
GA as: 2,000 2,700 2,500
MICK : 32,000 60,000 55,000
MO af: 2,900 2,750 3,200
NY : 164,000 178,000 158,000
NC 4/: 1,500 1,800 2,200
OHIO 4a/: 8,000 10,000 9,000
PA : 60,000 62,500 56,000
$c 4): 500 700 1,100
WASH : 156,000 249,500 185,000
us 5,225,900 5,263,950 5,456 500

T/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT “SoD (TONS): U S. - 1987-
13,500; 1986-600. 2/ FRESH BASIS. 3/ EXCLUDES PRODUCTION FROM APPROXIMATELY
25,000 ACRES OF THOMPSON SEEDLESS VINEYARDS IN THE VOLUNTARY RAISIN DIVERSION
PROGRAM FOR 1988; 15,000 ACRES IN 1987; AND 50,000 ACRES IN 1986. 4/ ESTI-
MATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PRUNES AND PLUMS

PRODUCTION

TOTAL 1/

CROP AND STATE

wecneenee ne 1988
1986
TONS
PRUNES (DRIED BASIS)
CALIF : 99,000 228,000 160,000
PRUNES AND PLUMS :
IDAHO : 5,000 6,200 6,500
MICH 113000 16,000 123000
OREG 23,000 19,000 23,000
WASH 9,100 125300 10,000
TOTAL 48,100 53,500 51,500

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS): 1986-4,000;
1987-4300.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A~23 NASS, USDA


The Washington all grape forecast, at 185 thousand tons, is down 7 percent
from the August 1 forecast and is 26 percent below 1987 production. Wine
grape and Niagara harvest is starting while the major Concord harvest is
expected around mid-September. Berry size is smaller than expected which has
lowered grape prospects in Washington.

The New York grape forecast is 158 thousand tons, 5 percent below the
August 1 forecast and 11 percent less than last year. In general, bunch
counts have been reported higher than normat while berry size and counts
within bunches have been lower than normal. On September 28, severe
thunderstorms were encountered through the Finger Lakes region and caused
damage to the predominant Vinifera crop.

Pennsylvania's forecast of 56.0 thousand tons is 7 percent below the
August 1 forecast and 10 percent under 1987 final production. The
Commonwealth grape crop is reported to be in good condition. However, due to
the lack of rain, berries are very small for this time of year. A few growers
reported black root and mildew damage but most felt they had them under
control.

The Michigan forecast is 55.0 thousand tons, up 10 percent from August 1,
but 8 percent below last year's crop. The State's grape crop has improved.
August rains have reduced stress of vines and helped the fruit to size.
Disease is minimal and quality is excellent. Concord harvest is expected to
start in mid-September.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: California's prune production (dried basis) is forecast at

160 thousand tons, unchanged from July 1 but 30 percent
Tess than last year. Harvest is underway. Splits and scab have been major
concerns.

Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington
is forecast at 51.5 thousand tons, up 3 percent from August 1 but 4 percent
below last year's level. In Idaho, harvest is over fifty percent complete.
Insect and disease damage have been light. Fruit sized better than
anticipated and water supplies, which were expected to be short, were
adequate. Harvest continues in Michigan. The drought has reduced fruit size
but quality is excellent and cooler weather has helped color. Harvest is
winding down in Oregon and Washington. Quality has been good.

PAPAYAS: Hawaii fresh papaya production is forecast at 6.50 million pounds

in September, 36 percent more than September 1987. Output is
expected to be 6.00 million pounds during each of the months of October,
November, and December.

Fresh utilization in August is estimated at 5.15 million pounds, 6 percent
less than July but 10 percent more than last August. Total fresh sales for
the January-August period were 2 percent more than the same 8-month period a
year ago. During the first half of August, weather conditions over the major
Producing orchards were generally unfavorable. The passing of two tropical
depressions brought increased rainfall which disrupted spray schedules and
slowed harvesting. Conditions during the second half of the month improved
with mostly sunny skies and a few passing showers.

August crop area totaled 4,410 acres, 1 percent more than July and 12
percent more than August 1987. Area harvested totaled 2,370 acres, virtually
unchanged from July but 1 percent more -than August a year ago.

WALNUTS: The September 1 forecast for California walnuts is 200 thousand tons,

19 percent below last year's record crop, but 11 percent above
1986. The 1988 California English walnut crop is being adversely affected by
the hot, dry summer. The extreme heat is contributing to shriveling and
drying problems. The set is 13 percent below last year. Harvest of early
varieties has started.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-11 NASS, USDA


CLASS AND TYPE

TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE

90,000
32,000
122,000

116,000

31,000
44,000
75,000

6,200
35,000
41,200

354,200

2,400

2,800
5,500
8,300

2,600
460
3,060
13,760

5,600
145,000
2,100
8,500
8,200
43,000
9,200
1,900
223,500

10,000
3,500
13,500
237,000

PRODUCTION

AC
CLASS 1, FLUE-CURED
TYPE 11, OLD AND
MIDDLE BELTS
NC 80,000
VA 28,000
US 108,000
TYPE 12, EASTERN NC
BELT
NC > 107,000
TYPE 13, N C BORDER & :
SC BELT :
NC 30,000
Sc 42,000
US 72,000
TYPE 14, GA-FLA BELT
FLA 5,600
GA 32,000
us : 37,600
TOTAL 11-14 324,600
CLASS 2, FIRE-CURED
TYPE 21, VA BELT
VA 2,600
TYPE 22, EASTERN
DISTRICT
KY 2,700
TENN 5,500
us 8,200
TYPE 23, WESTERN
DISTRICT
KY 2,600
TENN 460
US 3,060
TOTAL 21-23 13,860
CLASS 3, AIR-CURED
CLASS 3A, LIGHT
AIR-CURED
TYPE 37, BURLEY
IND 5,400
KY 140,000
MO 1,700
NC 7,900
OHTO 7,300
TENN 43,000
VA 8,700
WVA : 1,800
us : 215,800
TYPE 32, SOUTHERN MD
BELT 1/
MD 11,700
PA 4,000
us 15,700
TOTAL 31-32 231,500
SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE B-20.
CROP PRODUCTION,
SEPTEMBER 1988

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
1,970 2,100 157,600 189,000
2,085 2,200 58,380 70,400
2,000 2,126 215,980 259,400
2,170 2,300 232,190 266,800
2,090 2,150 62,700 66,650
2,240 2,150 94,080 94,600
2,178 2,150 156,780 161,250
2,465 2,450 13,804 15,190
2,255 2,200 72,160 77,000
2,286 2,238 85,964 92,190
2,129 2,201 690,914 779,640
1,000 1,300 2,600 3,120
2,070 2,050 5,589 5,740
2,170 2,000 11,935 11,000
2,137 2,017 17,524 16,740
2,450 2,100 6,370 5,460
2,350 1,900 1,081 874
2,435 2,070 7,451 6,334
1,990 1,904 27,575 26,194
2,050 1,900 11,070 10,640
2,050 2,150 287,000 311,750
2,070 1,700 3,519 3,570
1,785 1,800 14,102 15,300
1,640 1,500 11,972 12,300
1,705 1,800 73,315 77,400
1,815 1,750 15,790 16,100
1,440 1,250 2,592 2,375
1,943 2,011 419,360 449,435
1,140 1,280 13,338 12,800
1,850 1,850 7,400 6,475
1,321 1,428 20,738 19,275
1,901 1,978 440,098 468,710

CONTINUED

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA



BARLEY
YIELD

STATE > IND:
1987 : 1988 : 1987
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHEL
ARIZ : 22 14 99.0 110.0 2,900 2,178 1,540
CALIF : 300 280 51.0 65.0 23,600 15,300 18,200
COLO : 220 190 66.0 65.0 21,000 14,520 12,350
DEL lf i: 52 30 62.0 62.0 3,050 3,224 1,860
IDAHO : 820 850 75.0 65.0 72,150 61,500 55,250
KANS : 120 85 40.0 33.0 10,440 4,800 2,805
KY Yoo: YW 14 67.0 63.0 527 737 882
MD 2/ oo: 89 72 67.0 68.0 4,920 5,963 4,896
MICH 1/ : 50 45 55.0 40.0 3,245 2,750 1,800
MINN : 870 710 57.0 25.0 55,000 49,590 17,750
MONT : 2,100 1,250 45.0 22.0 85,020 94,500 27,500
NEBR 1/ : 75 60 36.0 34.0 5,400 2,700 2,040
WV ft 33 Ra 90.0 90.0 2,970 2,370 2,790
NJ W/o: 15 9 60.0 62.0 1,240 900 558
N MEX 1/ VW Y 70.0 55.0 1,040 770 605
NC W/o: 40 38 62.0 65.0 1,620 2,480 2,470
N DAK : 2,900 1,900 48.0 23.0 175,950 139,200 43,700
OKLA lf : 25 20 30.0 41.0 1,260 750 820
OREG : 220 200 70.0 75.0 20,805 15,400 15,000
PA : 60 55 57.0 66.0 3,900 3,420 3,630
sc Ve: 13 15 49.0 52.0 588 637 780
S DAK : 850 500 40.0 18.0 35,910 34,000 9,000
TEX I/ : 30 18 40.0 30.0 1,750 1,200 540
UTAH : 142 128 83.0 75.0 11,552 11,786 9,600
VA : 78 82 66.0 71.0 3,960 5,148 5,822
WASH : 645 560 55.0 58.0 45,000 35,475 32,480
WIS l/ i: 88 90 54.0 40.0 4,845 4,752 3,600
wyo : 148 144 70.0 60.0 10,880 10,360 8,640
US : 10,027 7,401 52.6 38.8 610,522 527,010 286,908

1/_ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-10 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO: U.S. all tobacco production for 1988 is forecast at 1.30 billion

pounds, 10 percent above last year’s production and up 3 percent from
last month's outlook. August rains contributed to the improved crop condi-
tions. Since August 1, outlook improved in 8 of the 16 producing States and
declined in only 2 States. The higher production from last year is the result
of a 5 percent increase in acreage and higher yields. The current crop is
expected to average 2,101 pounds per acre compared with 2,028 pounds per acre
a year ago.

Flue-cured production is expected to reach 780 million pounds, up 13
percent from a year ago and 7 percent above last month’s forecast. The
increase from a year ago reflects a 9 percent increase in acreage and a 72
pound per acre higher average yield.

In North Carolina, prospects improved slightly during August with better
moisture supplies in the Piedmont and southern Coastal Plains Counties.
Harvest was about 63 percent complete on September 4 compared to the 5-year
average of 65 percent. South Carolina harvest was very active during the first
three weeks of August but slowed with showers and then heavy rain from
tropical storm Chris. At month's end, harvest was 8] percent complete compared
to 89 percent for the 5-year average. In Georgia, scattered showers throughout
most of August hampered harvest. Harvest in Florida was complete by the end of
August. Marketing remained active.

Burley output is now expected to total 449 million pounds this year, 7
percent above a year ago and 9 percent above the outlook on August 1. The
change from last year reflects a 4 percent acreage increase and average yield
that is expected to be 68 pounds per acre above 1987. The increase from a
month ago follows improved growth and development as moisture supplies
increased. Average yield per acre is now expected to be 2,011 pounds compared
with the outlook of 1,848 pounds on August 1.

In Kentucky, late tobacco benefited from recent showers and much of the
crop is remaining green longer due to the rain. Cutting was 40 percent
complete on September 4 compared with 76 percent last year. Housed tobacco is
curing well. In Tennessee, improved moisture after topping resulted in an
increase in leaf size. However, reduced stands, more black shank, and pests
hindered improvement.

The dark fire-cured crop is forecast at 26.2 million pounds, down 5 percent
from last year but up 2 percent from expectations a month ago. The decline
from a year ago results from an 86 pound per acre lower yield and a 1 percent
decline in acreage.

Southern Maryland type tobacco is expected to total 19.3 million pounds,
the same as forecast a month ago but 7 percent lower than last year's crop.
Expected yield per acre of 1,428 pounds is 107 pounds above last year but only
partially offsets the 14 percent decrease in acreage.

The dark air-cured tobacco crop of 7.53 million tons is up 8 percent from
1987. The outlook is up 6 percent from a month ago.

All cigar-type production is expected to total 22.0 million pounds, off 12
percent from last year but 1 percent above last month's expectations. Compared
with last year, filler is off 5 percent and binder, is down 27 percent, but
wrapper is up 22 percent from 1987.

SUGARBEETS: The September 1 sugarbeet production forecast of 25.2 million

tons is down 2 percent from the August 1 outlook and 10 percent
below last year’s harvest. The decline from a year ago is the result of lower
yields which are only partially offset by a 4 percent increase in acreage.
Yields are expected to average 19.5 tons per acre nationally compared with
22.3 tons in 1987. Decline is particularly evident in the Red River Valley of
North Dakota and Minnesota but is widespread with all but 4 of the 13
producing States expecting lower yields than a year ago.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-8 NASS, USDA


Area for harvest is expected to total 2.86 million acres, unchanged from
August 1 but 23 percent more than 1987. This would be the largest area
harvested since 1982.

As of September 4 rice was virtually all headed except in California.
Harvest was 23 percent finished, 6 percentage points behind normal. Harvest
has begun in all States. The TexaS harvest was progressing well. Harvest in
Arkansas, California, and Mississippi was just beginning. In Louisiana
harvest was slowed by heavy rains which atso caused lodging in the south.

SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at 1.47 billion bushels, virtually unchanged

from August 1 but 23 percent below 1987. If realized this will be
the lowest production since 1976. Yield is forecast at 25.9 bushels per acre,
down 0.1 of a bushels from August 1 and 7.8 bushels lower than 1987. The last
time yield fell below 26.0 bushels per acre was in 1974. Area for harvest is
forecast at 56.8 million acres, up fractionally from August 1 and 1 percent
above 1987.

Soybean growing conditions were varied in August but heat and moisture
stress continue to affect much of the midwest. In Kansas and Nebraska yields
dropped 4 and 2 bushels per acre, respectively, from August 1. Iowa and
Minnesota yields were down 1 bushel from a month ago. Crop conditions
improved in Indiana and Ohio as yields increased 1 bushel per acre from last
month. Forecast yields in Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, and
Tennessee were unchanged from August }. In the coastal States, precipitation
has generally helped as yields increased or remained unchanged from a month
earlier. Louisana and Georgia yields increased 3 and 2 bushels per acre,
respectively, from August 1. Mississippi, South Carolina, and Virginia yield
prospects improved 1 bushel from a month ago.

Yield increased in 8 States, decreased in 4 States and was unchanged in 17
States from a month earlier.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
1979 - 1988

BILLION BUSHELS

[ 2.26
2.19 210
1.98 1.86 1.94 4.90
2 1.80 W
1.64
NY 1.47
1.6
1
0.6
“4979 1980 1981 1982 19683 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
YEAR
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

SEPTEMBER 1988 B-5 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY ~ YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

INDICATED
: SEP 1,
1988

METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 7.49 4.93 179,437,500 113,781,620 113,352,090
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 4.39 3.76 18,818,940 14,238,170 13,718,330
BARLEY 2.83 2:09 -11,.474;290 6,263,970 6,246,680
ALL WHEAT : 2.53 2.30  57,294;150 49,561,620 49,250,270

DURUM 1.90 1.12 20 15,485,420 1,339,000

OTHER SPRING 2.27 1.34 3470 55,761,150 5,596,220
RICE 6.14 5.98 §,793,510 6,919,820 6,907,580
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 2.27 1.74 © 51,837,770 40,115,320 40,071,510
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 2.62 2.94 1,641,740 1,967,720 1,962,370
ALL COTTON 0.79 +68 35,213,570 33251,470 3,202,490

UPLAND 0.79 -67 35,151,610 3,167,520 3,116,360

AMER-PIMA 1.12 1.08 61,960 83,950 86,130
COTTONSEED 5,233,550 5,301,590 5,215,410
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1.73 1.83 1,193,350 954,130 898,330
POTATOES

SUMMER 25.60 24.44 1,034,050 894,260 898,110

TOTAL 1/ 33.78 17,485,570
TOBACCO 2127 2.35 540,080 572,610 591,530
SUGARBEETS 50.04 43.64 25,344,020 23,335,510 22,887,360
SUGARCANE FOR

SUGAR AND SEED 79.53 82.92 26,506,120 28,227,050 28,227,050
PEARS . 853,030 742,170 724,020
GRAPES 4,775,420 4,997,230 4,950,050
DRIED PRUNES

(CALIF) 206,840 2/145,150 145,150
PRUNES AND PLUMS

(EXCL CALIF) 48,530 45,360 46,720
FILBERTS 19,780 3/ 16,330
PECANS 118,930 123,830
PISTACHIO NUTS

(CALIF) 15,010 43,090
WALNUTS (CALIF) 224,070 2/190,510 181,440

1/1987 REVISED. 2/ JUL 1, 1988. 3/ AS OF MID-AUGUST.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELO PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

CROP. INQICATED INDICATED
+ 1988 1/ 1988 1/
METRIC TONS
OATS 1.38 5,425,180 2,994,870
WINTER WHEAT 2.63 42,535,060 42,315,050
ALL HAY 4.42 135,299,350 118,395,780
ALFALFA 6.07 76,706,100 63,037,550
ALL OTHER . 3.38 58,593,250 55,358,230
POTATOES
WINTER 25.72 113,440 128,090
SPRING 28.14 803,940 899,510
FALL 2/ 15,534,140
HOPS : 1.87 22,700 24,410
APPLES, COM'L : . 4,782,020 3,661,880
PEACHES 3 1,101,680 1,146,580
SWEET CHERRIES 191,230 153,130
TART CHERRIES 162,610
APRICOTS 104,330
NECTARINES (CALIF) 173,270
PLUMS (CALIF) 222,260
OLIVES (CALIF) 61,230
ALMONDS (CALIF) 299,370

T/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-7 NASS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

INDICATED

: 1988 3 1987 1988
HECTARES

CORN 26,590,560 27,324,260 23,944,290 22,999,750
SORGHUM 4,776,960 4,230,220 4,291,330 3,646,660
BARLEY 4,470,210 3,921,850 4,057,830 2,995,110
ALL WHEAT 26,630,220 26,675,950 22,634,320 21,424,700

DURUM 1,352,070 1,430,980 1,326,980 1,193,030

OTHER SPRING 5,536,970 5,423,250 5,396,140 4,168,310
RICE 951,830 1,166,720 942,930 1,155,790
SOYBEANS 23,235,280 23,807,910 22,839,490 22,993,680
PEANUTS 634,310 679,880 625,810 666,930
ALL COTTON 4,211,690 4,920,550 4,061,190 4,720,260

UPLAND 4,155,880 4,840,500 4,005,910 4,640,540

AMER-PIMA 55,810 80,050 55,280 79,720
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 728,680 628,240 691,370 587,610
POTATOES

SUMMER 41,640 38,730 40,470 36,750

TOTAL 2/ 526,710 514,690 517,560 502,100
TOBACCO 237,590 251,190
SUGARBEETS 512,220 534,190 506,430 524,400
SUGARCANE FOR

SUGAR AND SEED 340,430

Vv ARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL U GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/ 1987 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

INDICATED

: 1988 1/ 1988 1/
HECTARES
OATS 2: 7,267,830 5,655,950 2,802,480 2,171,970
WINTER WHEAT > 19,741,180 19,821,720 15,911,200 16,063,360
RYE : 1,010,920 1,002,820 276,400 243,220
FLAXSEED i 190,200 117,360 187,370 96,320
SUNFLOWER : 730,470 738,560 718,320 710,640
ALL HAY : 24,584,100 26,771,460
ALFALFA : 10,313,520 10,382,320
ALL OTHER : 14,270,580 16,389,140
POTATOES H
WINTER : 4,820 5,060 4,730 4,980
SPRING : 33,390 32,420 32,660 31,970
FALL 2/ + 446,860 438,480 439,700 428,400
SWEETPOTATOES : 39,130 38,000 37,760 36,660
HOPS . : 11,450 13,030

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-6 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE - CONTINUED

CLASS AND TYPE

1988 : 1987 : 1988

1987
ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

CLASS 3B, DARK
AIR-CURED
TYPE 35, ONE SUCKER
BELT iy
KY : 1,900 2,000 1,940 2,000 3,686 4,000
TENN : 480 480 2,000 1,900 960 912
US : 2,380 2,480 1,952 1,981 4,646 4,912
TYPE 36, GREEN RIVER
BELT 3
kY : 1,100 1,200 2,000 2,050 2,200 2,460
TYPE 37, VA SUN-CURED :
BELT +
VA : 130 130 1,000 1,200 130 156
TOTAL 35-37 : 3,610 3,810 1,932 1,976 6,976 7,528

CLASS 4, CIGAR FILLER
TYPE 41, PA SEEDLEAF :

PA : 7,000 6,500 1,900 1,950 13,300 12,675
TYPE 42-44 OHIO-MIAMI :

VALLEY TYPES 3

OHIO Vi: 50 20 1,440 1,200 72 24
TOTAL 41-44 1/ : 7,050 6,520 1,897 1,948 13,372 12,699
CLASS 5, CIGAR BINDER :
CLASS 5A, CONN VALLEY :

BINDER
TYPE 51, CONN VALLEY
BROADLEAF :
CONN H 930 850 1,700 1,600 1,581 1,360
MASS 3 110 100 1,800 1,850 198 185
TOTAL 51-52 : 1,040 950 1,711 1,626 1,779 1,545

CLASS 5B, WIS BINDER :
TYPE 54, SOUTHERN WIS :
WIS : 2,700 2,000 2,100 2,000 5,670 4,000
THE oe NORTHERN WIS :
WI :

: 1,500 1,100 1,800 1,700 2,700 1,870
TOTAL 54-55 s 4,200 3,100 1,993 1,894 8,370 5,870
TOTAL 51-55 : 5,240 4,050 1,937 1,831 10,149 7,415
CLASS 6, CIGAR WRAPPER :
TYPE 61, CONN VALLEY
SHADE-GROWN 3
CONN : 870 960 1,305 1,400 1,135 1,344
MASS : 410 420 1,110 1,400 455 588
US 1,280 1,380 1,242 1,400 1,590 1,932
ALL CIGAR TYPES :
TOTAL 41-61 ; 13,570 11,950 1,850 1,845 25,111 22,046
ALL TOBACCO : 587,140 620, 720 2,028 2,101 1,190,674 1,304,118

1/ INCLUDES BINDER TYPES GROWN IN OHIO.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-19 NASS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

IND
1988

1988 :

IND

STATE

1987
ALA I/ 40
ARIZ 1/ i
ARK : 405
CALIF 1/ : 20
CcoLo : 230
GA Vos 60
ILL H 140
KANS : 3,750
KY Veo: 26
LA H W2
MISS : 145
MO : 706
NEBR : 1,300
N MEX : 140
NC W/o: 45
OKLA : 410
sc W/o: 15
S_DAK : 270
TENN H 75
TEX : 2,650
US 10,604

25
4
345
16
260
45
70
3,250
1
115
130

1987 :
BUSHELS

48.0 45.0
90.0 85.0
72.0 66.0
90.0 92.0
43.0 42.0
40.0 43.0
86.0 70.0
73.0 60.0
70.0 50.0
72.0 62.0
65.0 56.0
85.0 71.0
84.0 70.0
57.0 58.0
43.0 45.0
46.0 39.0
37.0 34.0
53.0 32.0
80.0 70.0
63.0 60.0
69.9 59.9

4,000
1,044
40,920
25210
11,700
2,706
19,000
311,250
4,275
23,800
14,400
92,340
136,170
10,350
1,400
23,030
1,024
14,030
10,725
213,750

938,124

1,000 BUSHELS

1,920
990
29,160
1,800
9,890
23400
12,040
273,750
1,820
12,384
9,425
59,500
109,200
7,980
1,935
18,860
555
14,310
6,000
166,950

740,869

1,125
340
22,770
1,472
10,920
1,935
4,900
195,000
550
7,130
7,280
30,530
94,500
7,540
2,925
14,040
340
8,320
2,450
126 ,000

540,067

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION,
SEPTEMBER 1988

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA


COFFEE

PRODUCTION 1/
STATE beeen e---------- 2-27 -- +++ ---  e e - e  e- ee e ee

1987-88

PRODUCTION
CROP
AND TOTAL 1/
STATE IND
1988
TONS
BARTLETT :
CALIF 2 285,000 325,000 280,000
OREG : 55,000 78,000 65,000
WASH : 126,000 171,000 140,000
TOTAL 3 466,000 574,000 485,000
EXCLUDING BARTLETT :
CALIF 3 9,000 12,000 11,000
OREG : 112,000 150,000 125,000
WASH 3 140,000 165,000 140,000
A poral 2 261,000 327,000 276,000
L :
CALIF : 294,000 337,000 291,000
COLO 2/ : 1,750 8,000 3,500
CONN 2/ z 1,600 1,450 1,600
MICH : 11,000 8,000 10,000
NY z 19,000 15,000 17,300
OREG H 167,000 228,000 190,000
PA 2/ 3 3,800 > 2,500
UTAH 2/ : 2,200 3,600 2,200
WASH 3 266,000 336,000 280,000
us 3 766,350 940,250 798,100

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS): US
1986-6,000, 1987-2,650.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

MONTH : HARVESTED

1988 : FORECAST

1988
ACRES 1,000 POUNDS
4,360 2,330 2,380 4,785 5,470
43410 25350 23370 42660 52145
: 25345 42770 6,500
oct : 4,070 23325 5,900 6,000
NOV > 43095 23445 53940 6,000
DEC 43135 23240 53990 6 }000
CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-AUG 33,400 34,180
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

SEPTEMBER 1988 A-25 NASS, USDA



Production

National United States

Agricustural Department of

statuette Agriculture

foragreunio Agricultural
Statistics
Board

Crop

Washington, D.C.

RELEASED: September 12, 1988
3:00 P.M. ET

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production is forecast at 4.46 billion bushels, down slightly
from last month and 37 percent below last year's crop.

SORGHUM GRAIN production is forecast at 540 million bushels, down 27 percent
from 1987,

SOYBEAN PRODUCTION is forecast at 1.47 billion bushels, 23 percent below 1987
and the smallest crop since 1976.

ALL WHEAT production is forecast at 1.81 billion bushels, down 14 percent from
last season.

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 14.7 million bales, down 2 percent from
August 1 and slightly below the 1987 level.

ALL TOBACCO production is forecast at 1.30 billion pounds, 10 percent above
last year's level and 3 percent above the August 1 estimate.

PEANUT production is forecast at 4.33 billion pounds, up 20 percent from last
year but slightly below the August 1 forecast.

HERI IIIHK IISA III III ISI III ISI ISI IIIS IISA III SII IIIS IIIA IA ISI IISA SI IASI III.

NOTICE
INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT ARE:

Revised Production of 1987-88 Coffee.

Revised Acreage, Yield, and Production of 1987 Fall Potatoes.
Revised Production for 1987-88 Citrus and Final Production for
1986-87 Crop.

Se oe oe
Pe ee ee

RKIIIIR IIA IAAI IIA ISKI ASIII IIIS IISA IIIS SII ISII IAI IIS III IISA II ISISII IAI IA HRIIR.

CrPr 2-2 (9-88) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


STATE

ARIZ 1/
CALIF 1/
MINN
MONT

N DAK

S DAK
US

1,000 ACRES

45 50
57 59
29 41
190 ° 230
2,850 2,500
108 68
3,279 2,948

BUSHELS
85.0 94.0
90.0 95.0
42.0 19.0
28.0 10.0
26.0 14.0
28.0 12.0
28.2 16.7

4,176
6,525
1,326
4,320
80,000
1,560
97,907

1,000 BUSHELS

3,825
5,130
1,218
5,320
74,100
3,024
92,617

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT

1,000 ACRES
55 51
340 380
2,400 2,000
2,300 1,500
14 12
6,100 4,600
60 95
1,800 1,300
29 23
190 310
28 10
18 19
13,334 10,300

BUSHELS
66.0 70.0
75.0 65.0
41.0 22.0
29.0 12.0
75.0 70.0
31.0 16.0
57.0 60.0
27.0 12.0
57.0 56.0
54.0 57.0
33.0 24.0
25.0 22.0
33.7 20.0

3,630
29,900
98,050
70,200

910
198,400
4,465
49,500
1,650
13,950
630
945

472,230

1,000 BUSHELS

3,630
25,500
98,400
66,700

1,050
189,100
3,420
48,600
1,653
10,260
924
450

449,687

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AREA HARVESTED

RICE

YIELD

4,700
5,605
779
2,300
35,000
816

3,570
24,700
44,000
18,000

840
73,600

5,700
15,600

1,288
17,670

240
418

205,626

STATE > IND: : IND : IND
1987 : 1988 : 1987: 1988: 1988
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT

ARK 1,010.0 1,170.0 5,250 5,000 54,060 53,025 58,500
CALIF 367.0 420.0 7,100 7,100 27,727 26,057 29,820
LA 420.0 521.0 4,550 4,450 19,380 19,110 23,185
MISS 198.0 270.0 5,100 5,100 10,692 10,098 13,770
MO 1/ 66.0 77.0 5,400 5,100 3,434 3,564 3,927
TEX 269.0 398.0 5,900 5,800 18,063 15,871 23,084
us 2,330.0 2,856.0 5,482 5,332 133,356 127,725 152,286

1/_ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION,
SEPTEMBER 1988

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

A-12 NASS, USDA


STATE

ALA 1/ 170
ARIZ 1/ 89
ARK 1/ 840
CALIF 1/ 537
coLO = 1/ 2,555
DEL 1/ 48
FLA V 60
GA vi 460
IDAHO 1,140
Itt 1/ 950
IND 1/ 600
IOWA 1/ 30
KANS 1/ 9,900
KY \/ 330
LA V 170
MD Vv 165
MICH 1/ 400
MINN 2,519
MISS 1/: 350
Mo We 770
MONT : 4,690
NEBR 1/ 1,950
NEV o1/ 21
NJ WV 27
N MEX 1/ 340
NY 1/ 80
Nc VW 440
N DAK 9,135
OHIO 1/ 800
OKLA 1/ 4,800
OREG 1/ 810
PAs 185
sc ov 275
S_DAK

TENN 1/

TEX o1/

UTAH 1/

VA V/

WASH

WVA 1/

WIS V/

wo oO1/

us

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER
WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

ALL WHEAT

BUSHELS
31.0 38.0
89.9 96.5
41.0 51.0
77.5 84.4
38.1 34.8
42.0 45.0
30.0 33.0
31.0 43.0
75.0 67.0
59.0 55.0
58.0 49.0
38.0 30.0
37.0 34.0
49.0 51.0
31.0 41.0
49.0 51.0
48.0 40.0
40.7 21.9
36.0 45.0
46.0 50.0
32.2 15.7
44.0 39.0
80.0 77.4
45.0 45.0
32.0 25.0
47.0 47.0
41.0 47.0
29.5 15.3
58.0 50.0
27.0 36.0
65.3 68.7
43.0 44.0
38.0 45.0

5,720
8,688
333415
51,525
96,430
1,530
3,100
153400
81,750
36,080
30,100
13680
336,600
8,910
75350
6,815
305600
103,666
6,200
18,810
138,520
76,000
13720
13290
10,120
73595
15,180
292,320
48, 300
150,800
58,405
93680
73500
1085660
105725
120,000
95750
6,970
116,850
396
8,040
8445

2,091,635

1,000 BUSHELS

PRODUCTION

5,270 8,360
8,005 8,200
34,440 535550
413610 423125
97,380 83,470
2,016 2,700
7,800 1,815
143260 203425
85,500 78,420
56,050 67,100
34,800 34,300
1,140 1,050
366,300 319,600
16,170 19,380
5,270 11,070
8,085 8,670
19,200 245400
102,588 45,703
123600 21,600
35,420 77,500
151,220 60,200
85,800 78,000
15680 1,470
1,215 1,170
10,880 8,000
3,760 4,230
18,040 22,560
269,120 110,980
46,400 46,000
129,600 172,800
52,920 51,900
7,955 7,480
10,450 13,500
106,704 38,016
14,350 21,070
100,800 86,800
8,963 6,912
9,675 11,340
114,285 126,170
495 414
4,164 4,920
8,820 6,268

FORECAST.

Vv

YEAR

1986 1,017,831
1987 1,018,561
1988 1 893,881

WINTER

SOFT
RED

292,450
347,742
461,925

211,217
196,593
199,006

1,000

SPRING

BUSHELS

451,417 97,907
430,578 92,617
181,889 49,200

DURUM

20,813
19,109
23,737

2,091,635
2,105,200
1,809,638

VARIETY ACREAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED

1/ WHEAT CLASS ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
AT _5-YEAR INTERVALS FOR ALL WHEAT PRODUCING STATES.

THE 5-YEAR VARIETAL SURVEY

DATA ARE ADJUSTED AS OTHER VARIETY SURVEY INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

2/ INDICATED SEPTEMBER 1, 1988.

CROP PRODUCTION,

SEPTEMBER 1988

A-T1

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA


Bureau of the Census reports 803,886 running bales ginned prior to
September 1 compared with 428,562 to the same date last year and 624,376 bales
in 1986,

COTTONSEED: Production for 1988, based on a three-year average lint-seed
ratio, is forecast at 5.75 million tons, less than 1 percent below
the 1987 production of 5.77 million tons.

DRY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry beans is forecast at 19.8 million cwt, 25

percent under last year and 13 percent below 1986. Harvest
is expected on 1.45 million acres, down 15 percent from last year and 3 percent
below 1986. The estimated average yield fell to 1,364 pounds per acre on
September 1, 11 percent below the past two years. Deteriorating conditions
during August caused production assessments to drop 6 percent.

Continued drought reduced yield prospects sharply in the north central
States. Current forecasts are half or less of last year's output in Michigan,
Minnesota, and North Dakota. Idaho and New York also indicate much smaller
crops than last year.

Harvest is generally underway and was hastened by heat and dry weather.
Pod shattering is a problem in the Red River Valley along with insect damage.
Parts af Colorado and Nebraska suffered scattered hail damage in August but
was not serious overall. Heat limited pod filling in Idaho with losses in
both size and number of beans. In Michigan, harvest is lagging where late
fields are slow in maturing. Growers fear the possibility of September frost
damage.

SUMMER POTATOES: Production is forecast at 19.8 million cwt, down 13 percent

from last year and 5 percent below 1986. With summer
potatoes harvest winding down, current prospects are slightly better than
anticipated on August 1. Area for harvest has been trimmed to 90.8 thousand
acres, down 9 percent from last year and 5 percent under 1986. The average
yield climbed to 218 cwt per acre, 2 percent above last month, but 4. percent
below a year ago.

Dry weather and heat led to abandonment of additional acreage in Minnesota
and Michigan, although in Texas some fields were lost because of too much rain.

The mid-section of the country from Alabama to Minnesota was hit hard by
drought this year resulting in sharply lower potato production. The Alabama
and Tennessee crops were cut almost in half compared with last year. North
Carolina output was down 38 percent and Minnesota was down 23 percent.
lllinois dropped 32 percent, while Nebraska and lowa were off 20 percent.
Michigan growers are about finished with fresh market harvest and are working
on chip potatoes.

Virginia and Delaware were the only summer States that produced more than
last year. Virginia potato yields returned to normal after two years of
drought. Texas and Colorado fields produced well, although with some
reduction in acreage. Harvest continues in Southern California. Sizes were
small in early fields.

FALL POTATOES, 1987 FINAL: Season-end revisions of fatl potatoes for 1987

places the crop at 342 mitlion cwt, virtually the
same as earlier forecasts, but up 8 percent from 1986. Area harvested in 1987
was set at 1.09 million acres, a gain of 5 percent over 1986 but 5 percent
below the large 1985 crop. The average yield was a record 315 cwt per acre
compared with 307 and 308 for 1986 and 1985, respectively.

ALL POTATOES, 1987 FINAL: Total potato production in 1987 for all seasons was

385 million cwt, up 7 percent from 1986 but 5 per-
cent short of 1985 output. Harvest covered 1.28 million acres, up 5 percent
from 1986 but 6 percent short of 1985 diggings. The average yield was 301 cwt
per acre, up 5 cwt from 1986 and 2 cwt above 1985.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-7 NASS, USDA


PEANUTS: Production is forecast at 4.33 billion pounds, up 20 percent from

1987 but slightly below the August 1 forecast. Harvested area is
estimated at 1.65 million acres, up 7 percent from 1987 and unchanged from
last month. Yield is expected to average 2,625 pounds per acre, up 284 pounds
from 1987 but down 7 pounds from August 1.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina) is expected to total 2.87 billion pounds, up 25 percent from
1987 and unchanged from August. Though even most of August was hot and dry,
widespread rain at the end of the month and the first part of September were
beneficial to most of the crop. As of September 4, three percent of the crop
had been dug and 1 percent combined in Alabama and Georgia.

The Virginia-North Carolina crop is forecast at 788 million pounds, up 24
percent from 1987 and 1 percent above the August 1 forecast. In North
Carolina, a yield of 3,100 pounds is expected, the best since 1981 when a
record high yield of 3,230 pounds was achieved. In Virginia, growers are
expected to average a record high 3,200 pounds per acre as a result of
excellent growing conditions.

The Southwest crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) is expected to total
670 million pounds, down 4 percent from 1987 and 3 percent below the August 1
forecast. Ory weather during the month of August lowered expectations in the
region.

COTTON: All cotton production is forecast at 14.7 million bales, down 2 per-

cent from August 1 and slightly below the 1987 crop. Upland produc-
tion is forecast at 14.3 million bates, down 1 percent from tast year, while
American-Pima production is expected to total a record 396 thousand bales, 39
pecent above the 1987 record crop.

All cotton area for harvest is expected to total 11.7 million acres, up 16
percent from last year and slightly above the August estimate. Yields are
expected to average 605 pounds per harvested acre, down 101 pounds from the
1987 record and down 11 pounds from August.

In Texas and Oklahoma, Upland production is forecast at 4.59 million bales,
down 8 percent from last year and 7 percent below August 1. In Texas, cotton
harvest continued to move ahead in many central and southern areas. Producers
in the Rio Grande Valley were winding down harvest operations. Bolls are
beginning to open on the Plains. Cool temperatures have slowed development
and insect numbers are high in many fields. Some dryland fields are stressed
for moisture.

In Oklahoma, dryland cotton was particularly stressed during the month
with some wilting and boll droppage reported.

Delta State growers (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and
Tennessee) expect to harvest 4.70 million bales, up 3 percent from last year
and up 4 percent from the August 1 forecast. Arkansas expects the highest
production since 1977. In Louisiana, the development of the crop has made
progress. Conditions in Mississippi improved during the month with an
increase in moisture. Prospects are still for a record yield in Tennessee.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 3.97 million bales of upland cotton, 1 percent above last
year and unchanged from August 1. Arizona harvest is underway in the
southeastern portion of the State. Defoliation increased in the area and many
growers stopped irrigation in anticipation of harvest. Defoliation activity
had started in Imperial County of California by the week ending August 27.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina), production is forecast at 1.01 million bales, 8 percent above last
year but down 4 percent from August 1. Dry weather during most of the month
resulted in lower yields in Alabama and Georgia while conditions improved in
North and South Carolina. Beet armyworms were a serious problem in Georgia.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-6 NASS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN 1/

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA H 250 170 72.0 42.0 15,390 18,000 7,140
ARIZ V/: 20 W 100.0 130.0 2,640 2,000 2,210
ARK / : 65 55 115.0 90.0 8,480 7,475 4,950
CALIF 3 190 160 150.0 153.0 38,000 28,500 24,480
COLO 3 690 820 155.0 145.0 99,400 106,950 118,900
CONN 2/ :

OEL : 148 140 73.0 75.0 14,027 10,804 10,500
FLA I/: 105 60 72.0 55.0 9,920 7,560 3,300
GA : 610 500 84.0 65.0 42,340 51,240 32,500
IDAHO 1/ : 50 60 130.0 135.0 7,800 6,500 8,100
TLL : 9,100 9,500 132.0 70.0 1,404,000 1,201,200 665,000
IND : 4,680 4,800 136.0 74.0 695,400 631,800 355,200
IOWA : 10,050 10,400 130.0 78.0 1,626,750 1,306,500 811,200
KANS : 1,180 1,150 120.0 110.0 181,560 141,600 126,500
KY : 1,140 1,050 104.0 65.0 139,840 118,560 68,250
LA WV: 213 110 105.0 90.0 44,660 22,365 9,900
MAINE 2/ :

MD Hy 460 430 78.0 56.0 42,340 35,880 24,080
MASS 2/ :

MICH : 1,950 1,600 95.0 65.0 257,250 185,250 104,000
MINN : 5,000 4,300 127.0 65.0 707,600 635,000 279,500
MISS If: 185 160 80.0 55.0 13,500 14,800 8,800
MO : 2,150 2,000 113.0 70.0 280,720 242,950 140,000
MONT T/ : 15 7 105.0 110.0 1,495 1,575 1,870
NEBR : 6,200 6,600 131.0 112.0 896 ,000 812,200 739,200
NH 2/:

Nd W/: 95 84 110.0 65.0 11,128 10,450 5,460
N MEX 1/ 49 51 155.0 155.0 8,250 7,595 7,905
NY : 510 500 109.0 85.0 61,380 55,590 42,500
NC : 1,150 930 60.0 85.0 93,840 69,000 79,050
N DAK 3 500 280 93.0 40.0 49,290 46,500 11,200
OHIO : 3,020 2,900 120.0 74.0 476,160 362,400 214,600
OKLA 1/: 56 60 107.0 95.0 5,220 5,992 5,700
OREG 1/: 24 15 165.0 170.0 4,800 3,960 2,550
PA : 1,060 990 90.0 62.0 127,720 95,400 61,380
RI 2/:

Sc 3 375 340 78.0 55.0 21,160 29,250 18,700
S OAK + 2,750 2,250 83.0 45.9 233,700 228,250 101,250
TENN : 580 520 91.0 65.0 56,980 52,780 33,800
TEX : 1,250 1,300 107.0 105.0 148,960 133,750 136,500
UTAH 2 : 20 22 140.0 125.0 2,250 2,800 2,750
VT :

VA H 300 370 63.0 72.0 21,600 18,900 26,640
WASH 1/ : 80 80 170.0 170.0 20,400 13,600 13,600
WVA I/: 50 5h 72.0 50.0 6,300 3,600 2,550
WIS : 2,800 1,950 118.0 75.0 365,800 330,400 146,250
wo l/: 47 41 111.0 110.0 5,814 5,217 4,510
US : 59,167 56,833 119.4 78.5 8,249,864 7,064,143 4,462,475

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ NOT ESTIMATED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-8 NASS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT 1/

PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
BOXES 2 TON EQUIVALENT
CROP H
AND UTILIZED INDICATED UTILIZED INDICATED
STATE H

1988-89

1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES,EARLY MID:
& NAVEL 3/:
ARIZ : 1,000 610 37 23
CALIF : 34,500 31,500 35,000 1,294 1,182 1,313
FLA : 65,800 78,500 2,961 3,532
TEX : 500 940 22 40
US 101,800 111,550 4,314 4,777
ORANGES, VALENCIA
ARIZ 1,700 1,200 64 45
CALIF 23,400 25,000 878 937
FLA 53,900 59,500 2,425 2,677
TEX 375 490 16 21
US 79,375 86,190 3,383 3,680
ALL ORANGES
ARIZ 2,700 1,810 101 68
CALIF 57,900 56,500 2,172 2,119
FLA 119,700 138,000 5,386 6,209
TEX 875 1,430 38 61
us 181,175 197,740 7,697 8,457
TEMPLES
FLA 3,400 3,550 153 160
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE
SEEDLESS
FLA 26,900 29,200 1,143 1,241
GRAPEFRUIT, COLORE
SEEDLESS
FLA 20,000 21,900 850 930
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
FLA 2,900 2,750 123 7
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
ARIZ 2,200 1,500 70 48
CALIF
DESERT 4,300 4,200 137 135
OTHER AREAS 5,000 4,700 168 158
TOTAL 9,300 8,900 305 293
FLA 49,800 53,850 2,116 2,288
TEX : 1,925 3,800 77 152
US : 63,225 68,050 2,568 2,781
TANGERINES
ARIZ 700 450 26 17
CALIF : 2,230 2,090 83 78
FLA : 2,340 2,450 ani 17
US : 5,270 4,990 220 212
LEMONS :
ARIZ : 7,100 3,650 270 139
CALIF : 23,500 17,000 817 646
US : 28,600 20,650 1,087 785
TANGELOS :

FLA 4,000 4,200 180 189

T/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENOS WITH
YEAR HARVEST IS COMPLETED. 2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-
90, TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF OTHER-67, FLA-85, TEX-80;
LEMONS-76; TANGELOS & TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95.

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. EARLY AND MID-
SEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES
IN TEXAS.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-22 NASS, USDA


OAT PROOUCTION AND ESTIMATES - A HISTORY

The United States produces about 14 percent of the world's oats. In the
U.S. oats are primarily used for livestock feed, food products, and seed.
Approximately 85 percent of domestic use is for livestock feed. Oats are
principally fed to dairy cows and horses.

Estimates of acreage harvested, yield, and production of oats have been
made since 1866. Acreage planted to oats was first estimated in 1926.

Oats were a major crop from colonial days until the 1950's. The harvested
acreage actually peaked in 1921 at 45.5 million acres, but remained in the
30-40 mitlion range until the late 50's. Production peaked in 1945 at 1.52
billion bushels.

Decreased numbers of dairy cows, work horses, and mules have greatly
reduced the demand for oats for use as a feed grain. The profitability of
soybeans, corn, and wheat have also helped reduce the size of the oat crop.

Per capita consumption of oat food products has remained fairly steady
over time. Oats are one of the most nutritious cereals and based on recent
medical research oat bran or whole oats may become a more important part of
U.S, diets.

The 1987 oat crop of 374 million bushels was the smallest since 1876 when
327 million bushels were produced. Five major producing States (South Dakota,
Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and Iowa) accounted for 57 percent of the

U.S. production. Oats have accounted for about 5 percent of all acreage
planted to principal crops in recent years.

U.S. OATS
1866-1987

—* HARVESTED ACRES —— PRODUCTION

MILLION ACRES MILLION BUSHELS
10 2500

2000

1600

1000

11 600

ie)
1866 1886 1806 1926 1946 1966 1986

YEAR

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-14 NASS, USDA


RYE PRODUCTION AND ESTIMATES - A HISTORY

Rye is a “minor" food grain crop in nearly all of the States where grown.
The main use of the acreage seeded each fall is as a cover crop. Harvested
grain production is utilized in rye flour for bread products and alcohol
production.

U.S. rye estimates date from 1866. The series consisted of harvested
acreage, yield, and production through 1930. Planted acreage estimates were
added in 1931.

Harvested acres ranged between 1.5 and 3.0 million acres until 1913. A
rapid upturn saw the acreage reach 7.2 million acres in 1919. Acreage has
trended steadily downward since 1922. The 1956 crop was the last to exceed 2
million acres for grain; harvested area has not topped a million acres since
1972.

Production rarely reached 30 million bushels prior to 1910. It increased
with the acreage upswing through World War I, hitting a high of 101 miltion
bushels in 1922. The 1942 crop was the last to surpass 50 million bushels.
Annual productions have reached 40 million bushels just twice since then.

Yield advances were, limited during the first 90 years of the rye series,
exceeding 14.0 bushels per acre only 5 times prior to 1955. The 13962 crop was

the first to hit 20 bushels per acre. Average yields have stayed above the 20
bushel benchmark since 1965, peaking at 33.1 bushels per acre in 1984.

US RYE
1866-1987

—- HARVESTED ACRES —— PRODUCTION

MILLION AC MILLION BU
6 120
yah 4100
480
ol
Jeo
al
440
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1868 = «1886 =Ssi«it908._——(é‘aOG:S:C“(<éi‘iKSCCtQGGSC*«éNOGG
YEAR
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

SEPTEMBER 1988 B-15 NASS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 4.46 billion
1987 bushels, down slightly from last month and 37 percent below
987.

The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at 78.5 bushels per acre
unchanged from last month, but down 40.9 bushels from last year's record high
119.4 bushels. Yields in the leading States and bushel changes from last year
are: Iowa 78, down 52; Nebraska 112, down 19; Indiana 74, down 61; Minnesota
65, down 62; Ohio 74, down 46; and Wisconsin 75, down 43.

The area expected to be harvested for grain, at 56.8 million acres, is
down slightly from last month and 4 percent betow 1987.

Harvest of corn for grain is well underway in the Southern States and just
beginning in the Corn Belt. Silage harvest in well underway.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION
1979 - 1988

10 BILLION BUSHELS

7.93 8.12 8.24 7.67 888 8.25
8 6.64 NX 7.06
6
417 4.46
: NY
2

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
YEAR

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: Production is forecast at 540 million bushels, down 27

percent from 1987 and 4 percent less than the August 1
forecast. Area for grain remains at 9.01 million acres, off 15 percent from
last year. Yield prospects have declined from last month primarily due to 4
and 5 bushel per acre drops in Kansas and Nebraska, respectively. The U.S.
yield is now expected to average 59.9 bushels per acre, fully 10.0 bushels
below the 1987 average.

Harvest of the Arkansas’ crop had not progressed very far by the end of
August as the crop is developing slower than Tast year. Yield prospects have
improved in Missouri even though crop development trails average progress.

The Colorado crop is progressing well and is rated in mostly good
condition. Soil moisture is generally favorable in the major sorghum areas.
Farmers are expecting a bumper crop in New Mexico as the crop continues to
rate good to excellent.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-3 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED 1/

CROP : INDICATED
3 1987 1988 2 1987 1988
1,000 ACRES
CORN t 65,706 67,519 59,167 56,833
SORGHUM : 11,804 ' 10,453 10,604 9,011
BARLEY : 11,046 9,691 10,027 7,401
ALL WHEAT + 65,804 65,917 $5,930 52,941
DURUM r 3,341 3,536 3,279 2,948
OTHER SPRING : 13,682 13,401 13,334 10,300
RICE 2,352.0 2,883.0 2,330.0 2,856.0
SOYBEANS 57,415 58,830 56,437 56,818
PEANUTS 1,567.4 1,680.0 1,546.4 1,648.0
ALL COTTON 10,407.2 12,158.8 10,035.3 11,663.9
UPLAND 10,269.3 11,961.0 9,898.7 11,466.9
AMER-PIMA 137.9 197.8 136.6 197.0
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1,800.6 1,552.4 1,708.4 1,452.0
POTATOES
SUMMER 102.9 95.7 100.0 90.8
TOTAL 2/ 1,301.5 1,271.8 1,278.9 1,240.7
TOBACCO 587.1 620.7
SUGARBEETS 1,265.7 1,320.0 1,251.4 1,295.8
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED 823.6 841.2

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/ 1987 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP INDICATED
1987 1988 1/ 1987 : 1988 1/
1,000 ACRES
OATS 17,959 13,976 6,925 5,367
WINTER WHEAT 48,781 48,980 39,317 39,693
RYE 2,498 2,478 683 601
FLAXSEED 470 290 463 238
SUNFLOWER 1,805 1,825 1,775 1,756
ALL HAY 60,748 66,153
ALFALFA 25,485 25,655
ALL OTHER 35,263 40,498
POTATOES
WINTER 11.9 12.5 11.7 12.3
SPRING 82.5 80.7 80.7 79.0
FALL 2/ 1,104.2 1,083.5 1,086.5 1,058.6
SWEETPOTATOES 96.7 93.9 93.3 90.6
HOPS 28.3 32.2

V/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-4 NASS, USDA


DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE IND: : IND : : : IND
1987: 1988 : 1987: 1988 : 1986 : 1987 : 1988
: 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
LARGE LIMA :
CALIF : 21.0 29.0 2,100 2,200 385 44] 638
BABY LIMA :
CALIF : 21.0 29.0 2,310 2,150 637 485 624
OTHER :
CALIF : 126.0 101.0 1,740 1,810 1,840 2,192 1,828
ALL :
CALIF : 168.0 159.0 1,856 1,943 2,862 3,118 3,090
COLO : 180.0 195.0 1,450 1,450 2,701 2,610 2,828
IDAHO : 148.0 108.0 1,900 1,750 2,724 2,812 1,890
KANS 2/ : 25.0 20.0 1,450 1,650 380 363 330
MICH : 440.0 250.0 1,260 1,100 2,720 5,544 2,750
MINN : 74.0 62.0 1,600 750 1,007 1, 184 465
MONT 2/: 5.7 6.0 2,190 2,000 97 125 120
NEBR : 197.0 200.0 1,780 2,000 4,305 3,507 4,000
N MEX 3/ : 11.0 9.5 1,930 2,200 212 209
NY : 28.0 25.0 1,500 1,200 434 420 300
N DAK > 359.0 340.0 1,400 700 4,340 5,026 2,380
UTAH 2/ : 6.7 6.5 700 550 4] 47 36
WASH H 35.0 36.0 2,130 2,100 670 746 756
WYO : 31.0 35.0 1,920 1,860 605 §95 651
US : 1,708.4 1,452.0 1,540 1,364 22,886 26,309 19,805

1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR
CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 3/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1987 CROP.

PEANUTS FOR NUTS

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION 1/

1987 1988 1986 1987 1988

1,000 ACRES 1,000 POUNDS

ALA : 220.0 238.0

494,940 465,300 666,400
FLA : 83.0 87.0 233,160 215,800 234,900
GA : 630.0 690.0 1,632,575 1,575,000 1,932,000
N MEX 2/ : 12.4 13.0 28,700 33,480 35,100
NC : 148.0 153.0 440,440 392,200 474,300
OKLA : 98.0 105.0 184,500 222,460 210,000
sc : 13.0 14.0 25,530 31,200 35,000
TEX : 252.0 250.0 385,000 441,000 425 ,000
VA : 90.0 98.0 275,900 243,000 313,600

US : 1,546.4 1,648.0 3,700,745 3,619,440 4,326,300

1/_ ESTIMATES COMPRISED OF QUOTA AND NON-QUOTA PEANUTS.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-1§ NASS, USDA


WINTER 1/ H
CALIF 3
FLA

TOTAL 2

SPRING 1/
ALA
ARIZ

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-OTHER

TOTAL

SUMMER
ALA
CALIF
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1,301.5

16.5
60.0
5
18,0
332.0
4.9
86.0
2.8
32.0
70.0
7.8
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8.0
8.0
23.5
130.0
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11.0
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115.0
62.0
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1,083.5
1,271.8

Tobacco
YIeLo

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
1,509 1,494 3,062 2,716 2,704
2,465 2,450 13,303 13,804 15,190
GA : 32,000 35,000 2,255 2,200 67,890 72,160 77,000
IND : 5,400 §,600 2,050 1,900 12,095 11,070 10,640
KY : 148,300 153,600 2,056 2,145 314,940 304,845 329,410
MD : 18,000 10,000 1,140 1,280 21,120 13,338 12,800
520 520 1,256 1,487 622 653 773
1,700 2,100 2,070 1,700 4,389 3,519 3,570
224,900 245,500 2,075 2,190 444,790 466,592 $37,750
7,350 8,220 1,639 1,499 13,574 12,044 12,324
11,000 10,000 1,882 1,915 21,830 20,700 19,150
423000 44,000 2,240 «2,150 += 75,480 += 94,080 «94,600
49,440 49,440 1,766 1,824 82,821 87,29) 90,386
39,430 43,730 1,950 2,053 «73,524 += 76,900 «89,776
1,800 1,900 1,440 1,250 2,640 24592 25375
4,200 3,100 1,993 1,894 11,860 8,370 5,870
587,140 620,720 2,028 2,101 1,163,940 1,190,674 1,304,118

Vv ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
A-17 NASS, USDA

CROP PRODUCTION,
SEPTEMBER 1988


RELIABILITY OF SEPTEMBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield
surveys taken about September 1. The yield surveys include mailed reports
from farmers for all crops and actual field observations and measurements for
corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat, and some fruit and nut crops. Farmers provided
appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops on
their farms and for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small
plot observations, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These
surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common
to all surveys. More importantly, the production forecasts are subject to
change due to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured
currently but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report, the “Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by expressing
the deviations between the September 1 production forecasts and the final
estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1968-87 20-year period; the square root of this
average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current
forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.

For example, the “Root Mean Sauare Error” for the September 1? corn for
grain production forecast is 5.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out
of 3 that the current production forecast of 4,462 million bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 5.0 percent or approximately
223 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
that the difference will not exceed 8.6 percent or approximately 384 million
bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using
corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the
final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 234 million bushels,
ranging from 18 million to 660 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has
been below the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply
that the September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or
overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts
have been below or above the final estimates is about equally distributed.

RELIABILITY OF SEPTEMBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

10- YEAR RECORD OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
AND FINAL ESTIMATE

ROOT” MEAN SQUARE ERROR

CROP AND
UNIT

QUANTITY

BELOW :ABOVE
FINAL

FEED GRAINS 1/ MT 3.8 6.7 6 QO 13 8 2
CORN FOR GRAIN BU 5.0 8.6 234 18 660 6 4
SORGHUM FOR

GRAIN BU 4.1 7.1 25 7 65 7 3
BARLEY BU 3.6 6.2 VW i) 23 4 6
ALL WHEAT BU 1.1 1.9 24 9 51 6 4

DURUM BU 4.3 7.4 4 0 12 6 4

OTHER SPRING BU 2.0 3.4 8 1 24 6. 4
RICE CWT 3.5 6.1 1 Yo 6 4
SOYBEANS FOR

BEANS BU: 4.6 8.) 27 161 4 6
COTTON BALES 2/ 6.9 11.9 5 1,914 5 5

1/ CORN FOR “GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-3 NASS, USDA
£



BARLEY PRODUCTION AND ESTIMATES ~- A HISTORY

In the United States barley is used for livestock feed, food products,
alcohol, and seed. Approximately two thirds of the domestic use is for
livestock feed. It is largely produced in the Northern States with the five
major producing States (North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Minnesota, and
Washington) accounting for nearly three fourths of the U.S. production.

Estimates of acreage harvested, yield, and production of barley have been
made since 1866. Acreage planted was first estimated in 1926.

Harvested barley acreage increased steadily from 1866 until 1918 when it
reached a level of 9.2 million acres. After some acreage decline in the early
1920's, acreage harvested exceeded 10 million acres for the first time in
1928. While acreage has been quite variable since 1930, acreage has been
about 10 million acres or higher in most years. The acreage harvested peaked
in 1942 at 17.0 million acres. Increasing yields have resulted in high
production in the eighties, and the largest production was in 1986, when 611
million bushels were produced.

Use of barley for feed and alcohol has increased while per capita consump-
tion of barley food products has dropped considerably. Since 1972, per capita
consumption has dropped about one third.

The United States produces over 7 percent of the’world's barley.

Barley has accounted for about 4 percent of all acreage planted to principal

crops in recent years. The 1987 barley crop of 527 million bushels was the
fourth Yargest on record.

U. S. BARLEY
1866-1987

—<— HARVESTED ACRES —*~ PRODUCTION

MILLION ACRES MILLION BUSHELS

(e) 800
16 bocce et eseeeetteeeeeees SESE SEE SESEEEESEESSOSEIOSESSOSESER  YSSESEOSERLO S00 SESESEESTESTSOOSES 600
10F- 400

[9 SeReeeEEEEEESESOSESEESEEEOSEEN’ SETERTEETEY We SUTEERY feet 5 01 SOUSSESOEEID OESEEEESTSSESESSESTESESTENEEDS 200

07 L MULLET LL STIRS cman MURLESETOTOneLTONOTeTEVeneDLECOLENestNT me)

1866 1886 1906 1926 1946 1966 1986

YEAR
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

SEPTEMBER 1988 B-13 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

~~
Sept 3, 1988
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WEER-T0-*EEK, STATUS OF ORYNESS OR FETNESS affecting wai-DRY
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leerrarrons. AAT Aon 0% AOLICABLE 10 cHRuL¥atiNC wo aly
foordD cord’ waiew ARE GNARLE To EErtuCT tar SEsP of SORSOCL worsTonD
sous Grrr enoF:tz, on Pon cook seasow chops crow, sm TeMPrAa

aha avgnagise. gduoe AbooT 35ePc i 13 "0 GEMERMLAT DACATITE,O

[rae tone ems (a0Wrras. TEARS) DROUGHT OR TET SPELLS WHICH ARE DEPICTED NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY .

THE OROUGET SEVEAITY [NDE_ 0d on preliminary report

DROUGHT SEVERITY

. TERM, PALMER) Pas
(LONG DERATE
5 Sept 3, 1988
a A YO
st MOIST. 1S"
‘SEVERE EXTREME | LREME., f=)
EXT, i
- MODERATE. SEVERE SEVERE
MODERAT Hi MODERATE:
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ras
TM SEVERE XERE
TE
DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PALMER): DEPICTS PRO- MODERA’
LONGED (MONTHS YEARS) ABNORMAL DRYNESS OR WETRESS:
RESPONDS SLONLY: CHANGES LITTLE FROM NEEK TO WEEK: MODERATE
JAN REFLECTS LONG TERM WOISTURE RUNOFF, RECHARGE | ’
JAD DEEP PERCOLATION, AS WELL AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. Most
lusts... APPLICABLE IN MEASURING DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF fa)
DRYNESS OR WETNESS OW WATER SENSETIVE ECONOMIES ; SeShonariN 3 MOIST
JASTEN AREAS OF DROUGHT ON WETNESS; AND REFLECTING THE GENERA age
[Teh STATUS OF HATER SUPPLIES IN AQUIFERS, RESERVOIRS, AND STREA
autarions. 18 Mor GENERALLY HDLCATIVE OF suomT remy (ree HEED)
FIELD OPERATIONS (TLS Tm INDICHTED BY THE CROP SOTSTURE INDEX) NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY seredonpratiningr apo
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

SEPTEMBER 1988 B-1 NASS, USDA


SPECIAL SURVEY

The normal surveys associated with the September 1 Crop Production report
were supplemented by a special survey of nearly 4,800 farm operators. These
operators, Tocated in 10 major corn and soybean producing States most affected
by the drought, were surveyed to determine if intentions to harvest corn for
grain or soybeans for beans had changed since late July. In addition, these
operators were asked to estimate the probable yields of corn and soybeans on
their individual operations. These yield indications were used along with the
regular farmer and objective measurement indications when adopting the
September 1] corn and soybean yields. The survey was conducted by telephone on
August 29,30, 31, and September 1.

These 4,800 producers were part of sample of 15,000 farmers originally
interviewed during the first two weeks of June to obtain indications for
setting planted acres. They were reinterviewed the last week in July to
measure changes in intentions to plant or harvest grain and soybean crops. No
further special acreage or end-of-season surveys are scheduled between now and
December and should provide the best indications for the final acreage
utilization estimates.

INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1979-88 (1977=100)

PRODUCTION
HAY : :

FEED AND : COTTON : TOBACCO : OIL
GRAINS : FORAGE : CROPS
116 108 102 80 129
97 98 79 93 99
121 106 109 108 114
122 109 85 104 121
67 100 55 75 91
1W16 107 91 90 106
134 106 93 79 117
123 106 68 61 107
105 102 103 62 106
66 92 102 68 86

1/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS
OF CROPS SHOWN.

he U report contains ate and National estimates wit
related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Agricultural Statistics Board which consists of
commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

APPROVE D: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
Rich D. Allen, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

Robert L. Addison, Thomas E. Kurtz,
David J. Aune, Hugh M. McWilliams,
Donald M. Bay, Terry P. O'Connor,
Thomas R. Birkett, Darwin E. Ransom,
dames E. Brewster, Melvin D. Rogers,
Arvin R. Budge, Vaughn L. Siegenthaler,
William N. Dowdy, dames L. Smith,
S. Radley Edwards, Eldon J. Thiessen,
Craig M. Hayes, H. dames Tippett,
Howard R. Holden, Charles A. Van Lahr,
Van B. Johnson, Donald H. Von Steen,
Gary A. Krull, John D. Witzig.
L ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE J
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

SEPTEMBER 1988 A-2 NASS, USDA


In California, yield outlook has deteriorated 1 ton per acre since
August 1. "Yellow Virus" has lowered expectations for the fall crop but the
spring crop appears to be relatively virus free. Harvest is underway in most
of the fall crop areas.

The Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota has experienced short
moisture supplies throughout the growing season. No beets had been lifted as
of September 1. Harvest usually starts about September 7.

. The Idaho crop continued to progress well with no reports of diseases or
insects. The irrigation water supply was poor to fair for most growers but
remained good for some.

In Michigan, early season stress and cooler temperatures since mid-August
has limited development and beet size. Moisture supplies are now favorable
for good September growth.

SUGARCANE: Sugarcane production is forecast at 31.1 million tons, the same as

on August 1 but 6 percent above last year's output. The increase
from 1987 is the combined result of a 2 percent acreage increase and 1.5 ton
per acre larger yield.

Florida's August weather was favorable for good sugarcane growth. Cutting
for sugar is expected to start in October. Planting for 1989 harvest has
started.

In Hawaii, two tropical storms passed to the south in early August and
dumped heavy rain in windward areas of most islands. This slowed harvest and
prevented preharvest burning for a few days. The remainder of the month was
sunny and humid. Sugar yields remain below a year ago. Rains have resulted
in more trash coming to the processing plants and reduced the sugar recovery
rate. High night time temperatures also increased plant respiration and
lowered juice quality.

Louisiana sugarcane remains shorter than normal but ample August rain
allowed some recovery in growth. The rain delayed planting of new cane.

The Texas lower Rio Grande Valley received good rainfall. This allowed
the crop to progress normally.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: The September 1 pasture and range feed

condition is rated at 54 percent, 3 points
above August 1, but 22 points below September 1, 1987. This was the lowest
September 1 condition since the 40 percent reported in 1936. Condition
improved from August 1 in 34 States and declined in 14.

Conditions in the Eastern half of the United States and in Arizona, New
Mexico, and North Dakota improved from Yast month. The balance of the Western
States had pasture and range conditions decline from August 1. Three States,
Towa, Montana, and North Dakota were rated in the extreme drought range.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Florida's groves and trees are in excellent condition. Numer-

ous rains and thunderstorms have provided abundant moisture.
Much new growth is present on trees of all ages as a result of ideal growing
conditions. New crop fruit is sizing well with some grapefruit from young
trees near fresh fruit minimum sizes but still not near passing maturity
tests. It is expected to be late September before fresh fruit packing houses
start running this season's fruit. Caretakers have been very busy in August
keeping covercrops controlled. Fall fertilizations and spraying continue in
all areas of the citrus belt.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 B-9 NASS, USDA


Most of the Kansas crop is still rated fair or better. But August
moisture was short at best, dropping yield potential. Harvest activity has
started in southeast Nebraska. This is earlier than normal because of dry
weather. South Dakota sorghum rates mostly fair, progressing about 2 weeks
ahead of normal.

Sorghum in Oklahoma's Panhandle rates in good condition, but other
producing areas are rated poor to fair. Harvest is mostly complete in the
Texas  Blacklands and points south; activity is increasing in the
Gross-Timbers. Fields in the Plains were rapidly turning color by the end of

ugust.

BARLEY: Production is forecast at 287 million bushels, virtually unchanged
from last month but 46 percent below the 1987 production. This is
the smallest crop since 1953. The expected yield per acre is forecast at 38.8
bushels, down 0.1 bushel from last month and 13.8 bushels from 1987.
Harvested area remains at 7.40 million acres, down 26 percent from last year.

Dry weather during August allowed growers in Montana, North Dakota, and
Washington to complete harvest at a rapid pace. Harvest in North Dakota was
nearly three weeks ahead of normal.

ALL WHEAT: Total production is forecast at 1.81 billion bushels, I percent

Jess than last month and 14 percent less than in 1987. Average
yield, at 34.2 bushels per acre, is down 0.2 bushels from the August forecast
and 3.4 bushels less than 1987. Harvested area is still expected to total
52.9 million acres, down 5 percent from 1987.

DURUM WHEAT: Production is now forecast at 49.2 million bushels, the lowest

level since 1961. This forecast is down 47 percent from 1987
and down 10 percent from the August 1 forecast. The drop is a result of
further yield declines. Durum yields are now expected to average 16.7 bushels
per acre, also the lowest since 1961. The average yield is 11.5 bushels per
acre less than 1987 and is down 1.8 bushels from August 1. Area for grain
remains at 2.95 million acres, down 10 percent from last year.

South Dakota's durum harvest ended in early August. The Montana and North
Dakota harvests were nearly complete by September 1. All three progressed
well ahead of normal.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production for 1988 is now forecast at 206 million

bushels, 3 percent less than last month and down 54 per-
cent from 1987, Yield declines in the Dakotas lowered the yield forecast to
20.0 bushels per acre, 13.7 bushels less than 1987. Area for grain is
unchanged at 10.3 million acres, down 23 percent from 1987.

Harvest of this year's crop has been rapid and well ahead of normal
Progress. Most of the remaining acreage for harvest is in Montana and the
Pacific Northwest.

RICE: The 1988 rice production is forecast at 152 million hundredweight, down

slightly from August 1 but 19 percent above 1987 and 14 percent above
1986. This would be the largest production since 1982. The larger production
results from more acres for harvest.

Yield is expected to average 5,332 pounds per acres, 10 pounds below the
August 1 forecast, and 150 pounds below 1987. Mississippi's yield is forecast
at 5,100 pounds, down 100 pounds from August 1. Increased sheath blight
problems in Mississippi lowered the yield prospects. All other States' yields
remained unchanged from August 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 By4 NASS, USDA


RICE PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

YEAR : LONG GRAIN : MEDIUMGRAIN : SHORT GRAIN : ALL
1,000 CWT
96,773 32,239 4,344 133,356
88,912 . 34,996 3,817 127,725

111,222 38,053 3,011 152,286

V/

‘ATED SI

1, 1988,
AGE OF CLASS PERCENTAGES. THE CLASS PERCENTAGES ARE ADJUSTED AS DATA BECOME
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON.

CE CLASS

BASED ON A FIVE-YEAR AVER-

SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

AREA HARVESTED YIELD : PRODUCTION

STATE : : IND: IND : H > IND
H 1987: 1988 =: 1987 : 1988: 1986: 1987: 1988
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA : 480 560 16.5 21.0 14,030 7,920 11,760
ARK : 3,150 3,150 22.0 21.0 66,000 69,300 66,150
DEL : 235 225 18.0 24.0 5,760 4,230 5,400
FLA 1/: 93 115 25.0 25.0 3,220 2,325 2,875
GA : 780 850 20.0 23.0 13,940 15,600 19,550
ILL > 8,500 8,700 38.0 28.0 360,000 323,000 243,600
IND : 4,250 4,200 40.0 30.0 157,250 170,000 126,000
IOWA : 7,900 7,850 43.5 29.0 350,675 343,650 227,650
KANS : 2,110 2,100 32.0 25.0 58,290 67,520 52,500
KY : 960 950 25.0 27.0 35,840 24,000 25,650
LA : 1,600 1,670 23.5 23.0 35,000 37,600 38,410
MD : 410 455 22.5 25.0 10,530 9,225 11,375
MICH : 1,090 1,210 35.0 28.0 28,830 38,150 33,880
MINN : 4,650 4,700 39.0 23.0 162,750 181,350 108, 100
MISS : 2,450 2,200 19.5 19.0 41,650 47,775 41,800
MO : 4,830 4,200 32.0 25.0 170,625 154,560 105,000
NEBR : 2,300 2,300 35.5 30.0 93,100 81,650 69,000
NJ WV: 99 103 31.0 27.0 3,276 3,069 2,781
NC > 1,340 1,420 24.5 26.0 36,720 32,830 36,920
N DAK T/ : 475 630 32.5 13.0 16,450 15,438 8,190
OHIO : 3,980 3,700 37.0 29.0 146,610 147,260 107,300
OKLA 1/: 230 320 25.0 21.0 4,800 5,750 6,720
PA WV: 165 205 34.0 29.0 5,425 5,610 §,945
sc : 730 780 21.5 21.0 13,695 15,695 16,380
S DAK : 1,390 1,700 32.5 20.0 40,565 45,175 34,000
TENN : 1,250 1,340 23.0 24.0 35,500 28,750 32,160
TEX : 150 235 28.0 28.0 4,370 4,200 6,580
VA : 520 550 21.0 26.0 13,680 10,920 14,300
WIS) 1/: 320 400 38.0 31.0 11,520 12,160 12,400
us : 56,437 56,818 33.7 25.9 1,940,101 1,904,712 1,472,376

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-13 NASS, USDA


POTATOES

PRODUCTION

STATE
1,000 ACRES 1,000 CWT
WINTER 1/ :
CALIF : 4.6 5.2 235 270 1,479 1,081 1,404
FLA : 7.1 7.7 200 200 1,532 1,420 1,420
TOTAL : 11.7 12.3 214 230 2,991 2,501 2,824
SPRING 1/
ALA 4.9 4.1 125 135 682 613 554
ARIZ 4.9 5.3 275 270 1,298 1,348 1,431
CALIF 21.3 19.6 370 385 7,605 7,88) 7,546
FLA-HASTINGS 26.5 26.5 170 235 6,860 4,505 6,228
OTHER 2.1 2.5 190 210 71 399 525
LA 3 4 60 60 35 18 24
NC 14.5 14.4 140 165 2,055 2,030 2,376
TEX 6.2 6.2 150 185 1,116 930 1,147
TOTAL 80.7 79.0 220 251 19,822 17,724 19,831
SUMMER
ALA 7.0 6.5 155 90 986 1,085 585
CALIF 6.4 5.9 345 325 2,482 2,208 1,918
coLo 6.3 5.8 295 295 2,070 1,859 1,711
DEL 8.0 8.2 210 210 1,311 1,680 1,722
ILL 2.8 2.6 260 190 783 728 494
TOWA 2.0 1.8 180 160 332 360 288
MD 2.5 2.3 200 200 272 500 460
MICH 9.8 9.5 200 180 1,679 1,960 1,710
MINN 6.4 5.7 300 260 1,643 1,920 1,482
NEBR 2.6 2.3 310 280 605 806 644
Ng 7.4 5.8 190 190 1,944 1,406 1,102
N MEX 10.0 9.4 350 300 2,790 3,500 2,820
nC 1.9 1.4 130 110 209 247 154
TENN 1.8 1.4 80 60 234 144 84
TEX 1.0 9.0 220 250 2,475 2,420 2,250
VA 14,1 13.2 140 180 1,112 1,974 2,376
TOTAL 100.0 90.8 228 218 20,927 22,797 19,800
FALL 1/ 2/
CALIF 18.3 16.5 430 6,885 7,869
COLO 60.0 59.5 325 18,810 19,500
CONN 4 35 245 212 98
IDAHO-10 SW CO 18.0 18.0 400 6,120 7,200
-OTHER CO 319.0 329.0 290 84,100 92,510
IND 5.0 4.2 250 990 1,250
MAINE 85.0 280 21,930 23,240
MASS 2.8 235 667 658
MICH 3.0 30.0 270 9,625 8,910
MINN 1.0 64.0 230 13,650 16,330
MONT 7.9 7.7 300 2,233 2,370
NEBR 7.5 7.6 290 1,794 2,175
NEV 8.0 8.0 340 3,150 2,720
N Y-LONG IS 8.9 8.0 250 2,537 2,225
-UPSTATE 23.5 22.5 250 5,288 5,875
N DAK > 125.0 124.0 185 21,600 23,125
OHIO H 9.8 8.4 230 2,522 2,254
OREG-MALHEUR CO : 6.8 6.7 410 2,380 2,788
-OTHER CO : 48.2 39.3 480 20,792 23,136
PA 21.5 21.0 220 5,160 4,730
RI 1.5 1.2 175 384 263
S_DAK 11.0 10.0 210 2,520 2,310
UTAH 6.6 6.8 240 1,760 1,584
VT 20
WASH 124.0 116.0 540 61,950 66,960
WIS 63.5 61.0 345 20,125 21,908
WYO : 2.3 1.9 210 567 483
TOTAL 17,086.5 1,058.6 315 317,771 342,471
us 21,278.9 1,240.7 301 361,511 385,493

1/__ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. ESTI-
MATES FOR 1988 YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR FALL POTATOES WILL BE PUBLISHED IN CROP
PRODUCTION TO BE RELEASED NOVEMBER 9, 1988. 2/ 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
SEPTEMBER 1988 A-16 NASS, USDA