Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996 (continued)

Class and Type

--- Pounds -- 1,000 Pounds --~
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air~cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt :
KY : 2,300 2,100 2,060 2,500 4,738 5,250
TN 2 510 460 2,000 2,100 1,020 966
us : 2,810 2,560 2,049 2,428 5,758 6,216
Type 36, Green River :
Belt z
KY 3 1,300 1,200 2,100 2,700 2,730 3,240
Type 37, VA Sun-cured:
Belt :
VA : 70 70 1,125 1,700 79 119
Total 35-37 : 4,180 3,830 2,050 2,500 8,567 9,575

Class 4, Cigar Filler :
Type 41, PA Seedleaf :
PA 3 4,500 4,300 2,050 2,040 9,225 8,772
Class 5, Cigar Binder :
Class 5A, CT Valley

Binder
Type 51, CT Valley
Broadleaf :
crt 3 1,000 1,080 1,980 1,860 1,980 2,009
MA : 240 320 1,920 1,800 461 576
us 3 1,240 1,400 1,969 1,846 2,441 2,585

Class 5B, WI Binder :
Type 54, Southern WI:

wr 3 1,900 1,800 2,370 1,900 4,503 3,420
Type 55, Northern WI:

Wr : 860 750 1,975 1,600 1,699 1,200
Total 54-55 3 2,760 2,550 2,247 1,812 6,202 4,620
Total 51-55 : 4,000 3,950 2,161 1,824 8,643 7,205

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:
Type 61, CT Valley
Shade-grown :
ct : 990 1,020 1,560 1,460 1,544 1,489

MA : 260 390 1,655 1,425 431 556

us : 1,250 1,580 1,450 1,975 2,045
All Cigar Types :

2,035 1,866 19,843 18,022

Total 41-61 3 9,750

All Tobacco

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-20 NASS, USDA


Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the November 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the November 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 78 million bushels, ranging from
0 million to 258 million bushels. The November 1 forecast has been below the
final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the November
1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
For most crops, the mumber of years the forecasts have been below or above the
final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts

:Root Mean Square Erro’

10-year Record of
Differences Between Forecast
and Final Estimate

Crop and :
Unit 2

Corn for Grain Bu 0 258 5 5
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 3 86S 5
Rice Cwt: 2 120 =«7 3
Soybeans for z

Beans Bu: 6 66 5 5
Cotton Bales 1/: 14 937 6 4
Fall Potatoes Cwt 1 16 10 0

1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-12 NASS, USDA


condition. Harvest progress in early November, at 41 percent, was only 6 points
behind the 5-year average. Objective yield data indicate Texas! large boll
counts are the highest since 1986 and boll weights rank second highest.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated their cotton mostly in fair to good condition in late October. Fourteen
percent of Mississippi’s crop and 16 percent of Tennessee's acreage was rated in
excellent condition. In early November, harvest in all States except Missouri,
exceeded the 5-year average pace. Louisiana had 97 percent of the crop
harvested, 6 points ahead of the 5-year average, and Mississippi producers were
93 percent complete, 9 percent above average. Compared to the previous

10 years, large boll counts ranked fourth highest in Arkansas and second highest
in Mississippi, but ranked ninth in Louisiana. Boll weights ranked eighth in
Arkansas, fifth in Louisiana, and seventh in Mississippi, during this same
period.

Thirty-eight percent of Arizona's crop was in good to excellent condition in
late October, and harvest progress was 18 percent behind normal, at 53 percent,
in early November. California had 55 percent of the crop in excellent
condition, and was 8 percent behind the normal harvest pace of 68 percent.
Defoliants were applied in the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys, with some
fields requiring a second treatment due to regrowth. The Desert harvest
approached completion, while rainfall caused concern for staining of unharvested
cotton. Data from the objective yield survey show California's. large boll
counts as the second lowest and boll weights are the third lowest since 1986.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina), the crop was mostly in good condition in late October. Alabama
reported 15 percent of the crop in excellent condition at the end of the month
and Georgia showed 11 percent in excellent condition. Rain delayed harvest in
north Alabama the last of October, while Georgia producers experienced these
delays the first two weeks of the month. North Carolina experienced a dry
October which allowed the crop to recover from the effects of hurricanes and the
record September rainfall. North Carolina showed 68 percent of the acreage
harvested in early November, 12 points ahead of average. South Carolina
producers were 14 percent ahead of the average harvest pace, at 69 percent.

American-Pima production is forecast at 567,000 bales, unchanged from October,
but up 54 percent from last year's output. Yield is indicated at 1,039 pounds
per harvested acre, up 203 pounds from last year. Arizona’s crop is rapidly
maturing, and eastern fields are ready for harvest. In California, harvest
began in early October in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Late October rains
reduced quality in some areas, but didn’t significantly affect yield potential.
In the Texas Wintergarden area, harvest is nearly complete and is active in the
Trans Pecos area.

All cotton ginnings totaled 8,875,700 running bales prior to November 1,
compared with 8,430,350 running bales ginned to the same date last year and
8,877,850 running bales in 1994.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1996 is forecast at 1.56 billion

pounds, up 23 percent from 1995. Harvested acres are estimated at
738,680 acres, 11 percent above last year. Yields for 1996 are expected to
average 2,109 pounds per acre, 40 pounds above last month’s forecast and
196 pounds above the average for 1995.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 884 million pounds, up 5 percent from
last month’s forecast and 18 percent above a year ago. Average yield
expectations increased from a month ago in all flue-cured producing states
except South Carolina where output remained unchanged. The projected average
yield, at 2,130 pounds per acre, increased 90 pounds from October 1 and is
expected to average 197 pounds above last year’s average yield.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-8 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield
State, and United States,

Seasonal Group:
and

State
Winter 1/ 11.9
Spring 1/ 84.3
Summer 1/ 70.7
Fall
CA 13.0
co 76.8
ID 398.0
10 SW Co 27.0
Other ID 371.0
IN 4.6
ME 78.0
MA 3.3
MI 2/ 54.5
MN 2/ 77.0
MT 9.8
NE 11.5
NV 7.6
NM 6.3
NY 28.5
ND 121.0
OH 5.4
OR : 53.2
Malheur 3 12.8
Other OR : 40.4
PA : 17.0
RI : 9
sD +2
ur al
WA 0
wi 60
wy 5
Total +2
us a1

14.
89.

1,246.
1,426.

NR NVWOONIYBUVWORPOUIOUNOOIONCOOHOU

1,000 Acres -

5
2

w

410
310
333
420
327
260
220
260
300
270
300
320
365
380
270
210
260
466
390
490
240
270
190
240
550
325
260
334

323

400
370
343
425
337
250
280
260
300
300
315
350
390
400
280
220
250
499
380
530
255
300
280
280
560
390
280
359

345

and Production, by Seasonal Group,
1994-96

Production

1994

2,372
22,646
17,381

5,600
25,795
138,801
12,690
126,111
1,148
18,375
744
14,040
20,035
3,200
3,996
2,760

25,740
476
424,655

467,054

2,473
20,193
17,931

5,330
23, 808
132,657
11,340
121,317
1,196
17,160
858
16,350
20,790
2,940
3,680
2,774
2,394
7,695
25,410
1,404
24,788
4,992
19,796
4,080
243

988
1,224
80,850
26,000
390
403,009

443,606

3,273

21,197
19,095

4,600
28,786
139,960
11,900
128,060

1,596
1,176
90,160
31,590
224
447,890

491,455

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Summer potatoes included with fall in 1994 for comparative purposes.

Crop Production
November 1996

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre
Selected States, 1992-96 1/ 2/

and : 1992 : 1993 : 1994 : 1995 : 1996

Number of Ears

IL Oct : 23,000 22,600 22,650 22,900 23,700
Nov : 23,000 22,600 22,600 22,850 23,600
IN Oct : 22,900 22,400 22,150 23,000 22,750
Nov : 22,700 22,200 22,150 22,950 22,700
IA Oct : 24,000 22,700 24,050 24,050 24,350
Nov : 24,000 22,500 24,000 24,000 24,250
MN Oct : 27,100 23,700 26,950 25,750 26,400
Nov : 27,000 24,900 26,950 25,700 26,450
NE Oct : 22,200 21,300 21,200 21,800 22,600
Nov : 22,100 21,100 21,300 21,700 22,550
OH Oct : 23,400 21,700 22,400 22,650 22,300
Nov : 23,200 21,700 22,500 22,500 22,000
WI Oct : 23,800 22,600 24,600 23,600 24,250
Nov : 23,300 23,100 24,650 23,250 24,650

1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ MI, MO, and SD no longer included in the objective yield program beginning
with 1996.

Corn for Grain: Frequency of Farmer Reported Row Width,
Selected States, 1995-96 1/

Row Width (inches)

More than
8

IL 1995 : 1 203 39 24

1996 : 198 29 25 1
IN 1995 : 3 148 28 8
1996 : 119 23 4
IA 1995 : 278 30 79 2
1996 : 2 183 24 69
MN 1995 9 114 16 22
1996 3 121 22 18 a
NE 1995 : 1 98 19 16 2
1996 : 136 91 20 1
oH = 1995 : 121 7 7
1996 : 1 84 9 5 2
WI 1995 : 1 59 13 44 2
1996 : 1 45 17 19 2
1/ MI, MO, and SD no longer included in the objective yield program beginning
with 1996.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1996 A-24 NASS, USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative

wee A-23
Corn for Grain....--. eee eee eee eee see ee eee on vee a-11 B- 5
Corn for Grain Row Width..........- sence eee st eeeee tees A-25
Cotton. ....... seen ee teeter ene e eee see e eee ween eee nee A-17 B- 7

Corn Cropping Practices.......... teen ce eens

Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts...... beter e ee eeeeeeee wee A-28
Cottonseed.......-- dee eeeee cs tees A-16
CYOP MAPS. eee eee eee eee teen e nett eee e tees eae B- 1
Crop Summary......- see eee commer e nc eretecsreessecare A- 3
Hazelnuts.......+--e seen eee e eee e ene eee e eet e cere teense . A-22 B-10
PAPAYAS. 6. eee eee eee ee tee eee ees bee ee es aceetene A-22 B-10
PEANUTS... eee ee eee eee eee et eee bene eee eee A-16 B- 7
POLALOES. ese eee cere eee reece nent nee eee cece reeane a-14 B- 6
Potatoes, Varieties Grown.............6. ees A-29
Reliability Statement............0-.0000- wee eee eee B-11
. A-13 B- 6
. A-12 B- 5
. a-15 B- 6
. A-26
. A-21 B- 9
A-21 B- 9

Sorghum for Grain....

Soybeans for Beans...

Soybeans, Row Spacing

SugarbeetsS....-.-.-.ee ee

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed

Wo) oF Colo, Fc a a-18 B- &

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-13 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996
(Domestic Units)

Crop and Unit to
: Oct 1,
1996

1,000 -

Corn for Grain Bu : 113.5 126.5 7,373,876 9,012,148 9,265,288
Sorghum for Grain " : 55.6 68.4 460,373 796,783 820,479
Rice 1/ Cwt : 5,621 5,981 173,871 176,089 173,984
Soybeans for Beans Bu: 35.3 37.9 2,176,814 2,346,220 2,402,610
Peanuts Lb : 2,282 2,483 3,461,475 3,414,975 3,502,375
All Cotton 1/ Bale: 537 698 17,899.8 18,189.21 18,594.1

Upland 1/ "3 533 691 17,532.2 17,622.1 18,027.1

Amer-Pima 1/ " 2 836 1,039 367.6 567.0 567.0
Cottonseed Ton : 6,848.7 6,965.4 7,128.4
Potatoes :

Fall Cwt : 334 359 403,009 447,890

Total " H 323 345 443,606 491,455
Tobacco Lb : 1,913 2,109 1,268,494 1,525,140 1,557,751
Sugarbeets Ton : 19.8 20.2 28,026 26,436 26,761
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed : 33.0 31.7 30,796 27,378 27,968
Hazelnuts 39.0 20.0 20.0

1/ Yield in pounds.

Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

:Yield per Hectar

Production

Metric Tons

7.94 187,305,080 228,919,100 235,349,160
4.29 11,694,010 20,239,220 20,841,130
6.70 7,886,660 7,987,260 7,891,780
2.55 59,243,170 63,853,640 65,388,330

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Rice

Soybeans for Beans

Peanuts : 2.56 2.78 1,570,100 1,549,010 1,588,650
All Cotton : 0.60 0.78 3,897,230 3,960,210 4,048,390
Upland : 0.60 0.77 3,817,190 3,836,760 3,924,940
Amer-Pima 0.94 1.16 80,040 123,450 123,450
Cottonseed 6,213,040 6,318,900 6,466,780
Potatoes
Fall 37.48 40.28 18,280,180 20,315,950
Total 36.24 38.62 20,121,630 22,292,020
Tobacco > 2.14 2.36 575,380 691,790 706,580
Sugarbeets 44.33 45.31 25,424,760 23,982,340 24,277,170

Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed
Hazelnuts

74.05 71.08 27,937,660 24,836,900 25,372,140
35,380 18,140 18,140

Crop Production : Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-5 NASS, USDA


Rice: Production of rice for 1996 is forecast at 174 million cwt,.up

fractionally from a year ago. The average yield is forecast at
5,981 pounds per acre; down 72 pounds from October 1 but 360 pounds above a
year ago. Record high yields are forecast for Arkansas, and the Mississippi
forecast matches the State record yield.

Nearly seventy-five percent of the California crop was harvested during October.
Rice blanking, disease, and weed problems contributed to reduced crop potential.
Louisiana growers reported a good ratoon crop while Texas growers realized
smaller second crop returns than earlier expected.

Fall Potatoes: Production of fall potatoes for 1996 is forecast at a record
high 448 million cwt, 11 percent above last year and 5 percent
above the previous record high in 1994. Area harvested, at 1.25 million acres,
is up 3 percent from last year. The average yield is projected at a record high
359 cwt per acre, up 25 cwt from last year and 7 cwt above two years ago.
Planting started late this year, but warm June weather matured early varieties
for a robust harvest season that ended earlier than normal and with good yields.
Total potato production from all four seasons is 491 million cwt in 1996, up
11 percent from last year and 5 percent above 1994.

Five Eastern States produced 34.7 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1996, up

15 percent from last year and 12 percent over two years ago. Area for harvest
totaled 125,500 acres, down 2 percent from last year. The average yield of
276 cwt per acre gained 41 cwt. Wet weather during harvest caused delays and
could lead to some storage breakdown. Production in Maine jumped 26 percent
from a year ago. New York production increased 4 percent, and Pennsylvania was
up 3 percent. Massachusetts dropped 18 percent, and Rhode Island slipped

1 percent. .

Eight Central States production is forecast at 107.4 million cwt this year,

up 12 percent from the last two years. Harvested area is estimated at

368,500 acres, a gain of 3 percent from last year. The average yield of 291 cwt
per acre is 24 cwt above last year, resulting from record highs in Minnesota and
Wisconsin. Growing weather throughout the summer was favorable for healthy
potato development across most of the region. Heavy rains in late June flooded
out thousands of acres in Michigan’s Saginaw Bay area and reduced potential
yields. Lower production was also registered in Ohio. Larger crops were grown
this year in the other six Central States: Wisconsin, North Dakota, Minnesota,
Nebraska, South Dakota, and Indiana.

Ten Western States produced 306 million cwt in 1996, up 10 percent from last
year and 3 percent above two years ago. Acreage for harvest, at 752,200 acres,
was up 5 percent, while the average yield of 407 cwt per acre gained 21 cwt from
a year ago. A late planting start gave way to warm June weather leading to
excellent growing progress. Harvest started and ended early in most States.
Idaho's production of 140 million cwt is the largest on record, 6 percent above
last year. Washington, Oregon, Colorado, and Montana are also at record high
production levels. Production in Washington increased 12 percent above last
year, while Oregon jumped 29 percent and Colorado increased 21 percent. Nevada
and New Mexico had production up 12 percent from the previous year. California,
Utah, and Wyoming were down.

Soybeans: Soybean acreage intended for harvest, at 63.4 million, is unchanged

from the October forecast. As of November 3, the soybean harvest was
81 percent complete, 10 points behind last year and 7 points below the five-year
average of 88 percent. Widespread rainfall and gusty winds slowed harvest
activity in the western Corn Belt as a hard freeze ended the growing season in
the Corn Belt.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-6 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted November 1, 1996 1/

Area Harvested Production

-- 1,000 Acres -- - 1,000 Tons

CA : 115.0 84.0 28.0 28.0 3,948 3,220 2,352
co : 41.1 51.7 17.4 19.7 946 715 1,018
ID 3 197.0 184.0 24.0 25.0 5,608 4,728 4,600
MI : 188.0 130.0 15.8 15.5 3,029 2,970 2,015
MN : 416.0 440.0 17.7 18.4 8,467 7,363 8,096
MT : 55.5 57.3 21.5 22.5 1,307 1,193 1,289
NE 2 72.3 51.0 16.4 18.1 1,504 1,186 923
NM : 9 26.7 24
ND : 204.2 222.0 19.2 18.3 4,272 3,929 4,071
OH 3 15.3 4.2 15.0 18.0 264 230 76
OR : 17.8 16.3 22.9 26.0 456 408 424
TX : 19.3 13.1 18.2 22.0 497 351 288
WA : 13.0 37.2 483
wy 3 61.5 56.5 20.3 19.5 1,103 1,249 1,102
oth H

Sts 2/ : 14.1 34.3 452 484

us 2 1,417.1 1,324.0 19.8 20.2 31,853 28,026 26,761

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA prior to 1996.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

1,000 Acres

FL 437.0 440.0

HI 53.0 43.0

LA 400.0 360.0

TX 42.3 39.0

US 932.3 882.0

1/ Net tons,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1996 A-21 NASS, USDA


Measured Row Spacing Of Soybeans: Percentage Distribution And

Average Width For Selected States,

1992-96 1/

PEUCSO NOOWW SOYEUH
w
cs

NUR ew

NRYVR BNYOCMN UVLO HAOWD
w
oo)

Row Width Groups (Inches)

: 10.0 &
amples: Less 2/
Number
19.1 7.5 25
24.2 12.5 23
30.7 10.8 16
36.2 10.5 29
35.4 6.5 19
33.5 7.4 6
38.0 6.7
45.6 11.4
57.1 10.1
53.2 15.2
35.7 15.3
56.0 13.4
58.0 13.1
68.0 10.2
69.4 11.2
18.1 3.9
23.2 6.3
28.3 9.9
28.2 10.5
28.3 12.3
24.4 15.6
29.6 14.6
36.2 12.4
25.0 14.3
30.8 11.9 1
38.0 14.5
41.9 7.9
46.4 15.0
53.1 14.0
48.4 19.2
13.7 2.5
18.3 6.3
21.6 6.8
23.6 8.6
21.0 11.5
54.6 18.4
63.8 16.9
66.5 14.6
68.0 21.5
69.5 23.5

PRURE BUN |W BUDAW GEARPU UNHAWM

NAN DO
b
im

DWOUHWY NLOADH BPWWORH BANMOP NBNOY DOWNY UNSOHMHOH

-0 19.9 27.3
+8 13.7 23.8
7 27.1 23.9
25 8.8 19.7
+2 12.9 21.6
11.7 22.0

10.6 21.2

5.4 18.4

3.9 16.0

3.9 16.0

7.3 20.4

3.4 15.6

3.4 15.5

1.4 13.3

2.7 13.0

19.5 28.0

15.2 26.3

11.6 24.2

15.3 24.6

12.1 24.4

12.2 22.5

4.9 21.3

8.9 20.0

4.6 21.6

8.0 21.0

5.7 19.9

21.6 22.1

9.3 18.0

4.9 16.4

7.6 16.7

31.1 29.4

30.3 28.5

33.1 27.8

24.7 25.2

22.3 25.3

8 14.6

1.6 13.3

4.0 12.9

2.0 11.4

0 10.6

1/ Based on row measurements in sample plots
samples.

selected

2/ Broadcast soybeans included as 10.0 inches and less

putation of average width.

Crop Production
November 1996 A-27

for objective yield

but excluded in com-

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


corn:

Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts

surveys in 7 States during 1996.

and measurements.

intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain:
Selected States,

Plant population per acre,
1992-96 1/ 2/

Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey

and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are

IL Sep
Nov
IN Sep
Nov
IA Sep
Nov
MN Sep
Nov
NE Sep
Nov
OH Sep
Nov
wr Sep
Nov

23,200
23,000

23,400
23,200

23,300
23,300

24,700
24,600

22,000
21,900

23,500
23,300

23,200
22,800

Number of Plants

23,400
23,300

23,300
23,200

23,700
23,500

25,000
25,100

22,600
22,200

23,200
23,300

23,500
23,600

23,300
23,200

22,800
22,850

24,000
23,950

26,100
26,000

21,900
21,700

22,800
22,900

24,100
23,600

24,000
23,650

23,900
24,000

24,800
24,650

26,400
26,350

22,600
22,500

23,400
23,300

24,600
24,000

24,350
24,200

23,550
23,500

25,000
24,950

26,500
26,600

22,750
22,700

23,100
22,750

24,800
24,900

1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ MI, MO, and SD no longer included in the objective yield program beginning

with 1996,

Crop Production
November 1996

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


In Nebraska, the harvest was completed by November 3, slightly ahead of last
year and the five-year average. Minnesota’s harvest was virtually complete at
99 percent, 6 points ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of the five-year
average. The soybean harvest lagged behind last year and the five-year average
by more than 20 points in Ohio. Indiana’s harvest trailed 1995 by 19 points and
was 15 points short of the five-year average. The harvest in Illinois was

87 percent complete, compared to 99 percent in 1995 and the average of

97 percent. Missouri’s harvest was behind last year and the five-year average
by 18 and 12 points, respectively.

The November Objective Yield pod counts per 18 square feet show pods below the
final 1995 pod count in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio.
The November pod counts in Missouri are the second highest on record. The pod
counts in Indiana and Illinois are the lowest since 1991 and 1993, respectively.

The forecasted yield in the non-objective yield states is up 0.4 bushel from
last month and 4.1 bushels above 1995. Record yields are forecast for Alabama,
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.50 billion pounds, up 3 percent from the
October 1 forecast and up 1 percent from last year. Harvested area,

at 1.41 million acres, is 7 percent below 1995. Yields are expected to average

2,483 pounds per acre, up 62 pounds from last month and 201 pounds above 1995.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) igs expected to total 2.10 billion pounds, up 2 percent from October 1,
but 1 percent below the 1995 crop. The yield for the 4-State area is expected
to average 2,534 pounds per acre, 60 pounds above last month. Rains delayed
harvest the first part of October, but clear skies followed bringing excellent
harvest conditions the remainder of the month. Producers reported highly
variable yields across the region.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 581 million pounds, up

7 percent from last month and 5 percent above last year. Yield per acre, at
2,875 pounds, is 497 pounds above last year's drought-reduced average. North
Carolina’s crop benefitted greatly from above-average temperatures and overall
favorable conditions. The extended period of dry weather allowed farmers to get
into fields earlier too wet to dig. Virginia producers also experienced near
ideal digging and harvesting conditions during October which allowed them to
finish harvest by month’s end.

The Southwest peanut crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total
818 million pounds, down fractionally from last month but up 4 percent from last
year. Yields are expected to average 2,162 pounds per acre, up 139 pounds from
last year. Increased yield expectations from last month in Texas were offset by
a decline in Oklahoma's yield. Unfavorable weather during the last part of
October hurt the Oklahoma crop and yields fell short of earlier expectations.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 12.5 million acres, is down

200,000 acres from last month, and down 21 percent from last year. The
reduction was entirely in Texas. American-Pima harvested acres remained
unchanged from October, at 261,900 acres, and represents a 24 percent increase
from 1995.

Cotton fields in the Texas Plains were being sprayed in preparation for harvest,
while some producers await a hard freeze. Cooler temperatures moved into this
area, allowing the development of late planted cotton. Harvest was delayed in
the North Central due to rainfall. Crop condition in late October showed

59 percent of Texas' crop in fair to good condition, and 18 percent in excellent

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-7 NASS, USDA


Tobacco:
and United States,

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
1994-95 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

--- 1,000 Acres --
cT : 1,990 2,100
FL 3 7,200 7,300
GA : 42,000 46,000
IN : 6,700 7,600
KY + 166,200 205,900
MD : 8,500 8,000
MA z 500 710
MO 1/ : 2,700 2,900
NC : 261,100 283,300
OH : 7,700 8,300
PA : 7,900 7,800
sc : 50,000 50,000
N : 51,690 56,550
VA : 44,170 47,670
wis: 2,000 2,000
Wr : 2,760 2,550
us 663,110 738,680

Crop Production
November 1996

---- Pounds ---

1,771
2,455
2,000
2,030
1,977
1,350
1,784
2,025
1,856
1,950
1,985
2,100
1,797
1,840
1,300
2,247

1,666
2,700
2,420
1,970
2,135
1,500
1,594
2,200
2,022
1,750
1,955
2,300
2,118
2,167
1,850
1,812

A-18

2,682
16,575
80,660
15,265
453, 687
12,750
792
8,015
599,853
18,360
18,360
108,100
132,289
106,092
3,550

5,866

3,524
17,676
84,000
13,601
328,581
11,475
892
5,468
484,599
15,015
15,685
105,000
92,907
81,269
2,600

6,202

1,582,896 1,268,494

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

3,498
19,710
111,320
14,972
439,620
12,000
1,132
6,380
572,970
14,525
15,247
115,000
119,768
103,289
3,700
4,620

1,557,751

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Selected Crops: Area Planted by State
and United States, 1994-96

: Sugarbeets 2
3 1,000 Acres

CA : *86.0 11.5
co : 58.2 78.0
ID : 187.0 410.0
IN : *5.7
ME : *78.0
MA 2.8
MI : 153.0 52.0
MN : 444.0 85.0
MT : 57.5 *10.4
NE : 56.0 *12.7
NV 3 8.0
NM : 1.1 *6.7
NY 29.0
ND : 225.0 134.0
OH : 4.4 *5.3
OR 3 17.5 *65.0
PA : 17.0
RI : 0.8
sD 6.0
TX 14.1

Ur 4.3
WA 13.0 163.0
wr 83.0
WY 57.3 0.9

Year United States

1994 1/ 1,475.8 1,216.1
1995 1,444.6 1,224.1
1996 1,374.1 1,269.1

1/ Summer and fall potatoes in MI and MN combined for comparative purposes.
* Updated for sugarbeets from the June 28, 1996, “Acreage” report and for fall
potatoes from the July 12, 1996, “Crop Production” report.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-10 NASS, USDA


Monterey's mercury peaked at 102 degrees F, 2 degrees shy of their October 5,
1987, standard. In Arizona, Tucson's high of 100 degrees F on October 9
represented their second-latest triple-digit reading, after October 16, 1991.
The month's first daily-record lows were observed on October 3 in Minnesota,
where St. Cloud reported 20 degrees F and Minneapolis noted 26 degrees F. Two
days later, Montpelier, VT logged 23 degrees F. But the Nation's most severe
early-season chill gripped Alaska. Both Fairbanks (12 degrees F below normal)
and Anchorage (3 degrees F below normal) registered a record-cold October, while
the latter location also received record snowfall. Major snow storms struck
Anchorage on October 11-14 (18.3 inches) and 29-31 (9.8 inches), accounting for
their entire monthly total (28.1 inches). Before milder air overspread Alaska
at month's end, monthly record minima were set on October 25 in locations such
as Ft. Yukon (-38 degrees F) and Arctic Village (-42 degrees F).

The cold air over Alaska, which had been building for about 7 weeks, shifted
southeastward toward month's end, overspreading much of the Nation and
temporarily quieting the active weather pattern. On October 31, lows in
Minnesota dipped to daily-record levels in Minneapolis (16 degrees F) and
International Falls (9 degrees F). A day earlier, highs had reached 80 degrees
F as far north as the Middle Atlantic region, producing a flurry of daily
records .

General Crop Comments: Low temperatures on October 3 and 4 in parts of the
northern Corn Belt stopped crop growth and accelerated
dry down of rew crops. The moisture content of corn was higher than normal for
early October across most of the Midwest. Row-crop producers with mature fields
welcomed the low temperatures, but some growers quickly harvested immature corn
for silage. Cool, wet weather in the Southeast slowed harvest activity and
fieldwork. winter wheat started the month more than one-quarter emerged,
slightly behind normal. Wheat growers in the central Great Plains were concerned
that delays to seeding would leave plants with insufficient growth before
entering winter dormancy. Rains associated with Tropical Storm Josephine slowed
harvest activity in the Southeastern and Gulf Coast States. Cotton condition
continued to decline in the Southeast due to the high winds and heavy rain.
Cool weather slowed defoliation of late-planted cotton fields in the southern
Great Plains. The soybean harvest started the month behind schedule across the
Ohio and middle Mississippi valleys.

By mid-month, wet weather in the mid-Atlantic saturated fields and delayed
small-grain seeding and harvest activity. The high moisture content slowed corn
harvest activity in the Corn Belt, where frost caused little damage to mature
row crops and aided the dry-down of row crops. Wet weather delayed some small-
grain seeding in the Dakotas, where some fields remained unplanted due to the
lateness of the season. Strong winds and heavy rains associated with Hurricane
Lili delayed fieldwork in Florida's vegetable region and scarred some fruit.
Rains over the western Corn Belt interrupted harvest activity, but provided
much-needed moisture for small-grain seeding. In the Central States, row-crops
matured faster than producers could harvest them.

Later in the month, Midwestern farmers who completed their soybean harvest were
delayed from harvesting the corn crop by the high moisture content. Harvest
activity was over 1 week behind normal in the central Corn Belt, where many
producers waited for a hard freeze to lower the moisture content of the grain.
Widespread rains over the western Corn Belt slowed the row-crop harvest. Late-
October brought a snowstorm to the central Great Plains and Mountain States that
left fields too wet for harvest activity. Drier weather in the Southeast
allowed harvest activity to advance. Thunderstorms in the Delta and Gulf Coast
region delayed harvest activity and threatened cotton fields where bolls were
open. A late-month frost in the Texas High Plains reduced the need for cotton

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-4 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN5-FT, SOIL PROFILE)

Last Chart For This Season

Lo NOAWUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY used onprotrrinary reports

Crop Moisture

Crop Moisture depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or
wetness affecting Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to
week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing
season. ~

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-1 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Yield per Acre and Production,
United States,
(Domestic Units)

1995-96

Production

Crop and Unit

Yield per Acre

Oats
Barley
All Wheat

Winter

Durum

Other Spring
Rye
Sunflower
All Hay

Alfalfa

All Other
Dry Edible Beans 2/
Dry Edible Peas 2/
Austrian Winter

Peas 2/
Lentils 2/
Potatoes

Winter

Spring

Summer
Hops
Ginger Root (HI)
Apples, Comm'1l
Peaches
Pears
Grapes
Sweet Cherries
Tart Cherries
Apricots
Olives (CA)
Dried Prunes (CA)
Prunes and Plums

(Excl CA)
Almonds (CA)
Pecans

Walnuts (CA)

190222222
o

°
5

3

Se ae ee!
g im

3&
5

w
3
PNUNDWY

1,190
2.59
3.46
1.98

1,634

2,376

1,545
1,389

208
240
254
1,826
43,000

57.
58.
36.
37.
32.
35.
26.
1,255
2.51
3.33
1.96
1,582
1,247

ORUNWU®

1,411
969

226
238
250
1,788
47,000

162,027
359,562
2,182,591
1,544,653
102,280
535,658
10,064
4,009,340
154,786
84,980
69,806
31,032
4,609

119
2,145

2,473
20,193
17,931

78,852.4
5,800.0
10,736,000
2,301,300
948.3
5,936.3
165.3
395,600
58.5

7745
181.0

23.0
370,000
268,000

234.0

155,225
396,851
2,281,763
1,478,048
115,840
687,875
9,016
3,368,530
151,840
80,747
71,093
26,989
2,282

103
1,221

3,273
21,197
19,095
78,884.0
9,400.0
10,608,500
1,993,400
783.4
5,964.0
133.2
247,900
73.3
140.0

200.0

19.0
530,000
250,700

220.0

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

2/ Yield in pounds.

Crop Production
November 1996

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Oats
Barley
All Wheat

Winter

Durum

Other Spring
Rye
Sunflower
Flaxseed
All Hay

Alfalfa

All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Dry Edible Peas
Austrian Winter Peas
Lentils
Potatoes

Winter

Spring

Summer
Sweetpotatoes
Hops
Ginger Root (HI)

Area Planted and Harvested, United States,

(Domestic Units)

Area Planted

1995-96

Area Harvested

2,069.
198.
10.
159.

13.
88.
72.
87.

mwOwW

RUwWw

1996 1/

1,000 Acres

4,661
7,174
75,639
51,983
3,620
20,036
1,467
2,787
112

1,818.
190.

onco

128.

14.
91.
79.
89.

ROOM

2,962
6,279
60,945
40,972
3,356
16,617
385
3,368
147
59,779
24,569
35,210
1,899.
194,
7.
154.

BIOW

11.9
84.3
70.7
83.6
43.2

1

1996 1/

2,687
6,787
62,850
39,709
3,546
19,595
347
2,685
106
60,599
24,256
36,343
1,705.6
183.0

126.

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production
November 1996

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Tobacco:

Class and Type

Class 1,

Flue-cured
Type 11, Old Belts

Nc 68,000
VA 34,000
us 102,000
Type 12, Eastern NC
Belt :
NC : 151,000
Type 13, NC Border & :
sc Belt 3
NC 34,000
sc 50,000
US 84,000
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
FL 7,200
GA 42,000
US : 49,200
Total 11-14 : 386,200
Class 2, Fire-cured
Type 21, VA Belt
VA 1,100
Type 22, Eastern
District
KY 3,900
TN 7,600
us 11,500
Type 23, Western
District
KY 3,700
TN 2 580
us : 4,280
Total 21-23 : 16,880
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-cured
Type 31, Burley
IN : 6,700
KY 155,000
MO 1/ 2,700
NC : 8,100
OH 3 7,700
TMN : 43,000
VA 9,000
wy 1/ : 2,000
us : 234,200
Type 32, Southern MD :
Belt :
MD 8,500
PA 3,400
us : 11,900
Total 31-32 246,100
See footnotes at end of table.

Crop Production
November 1996

Area Harvested,
State, and United States,

Area Harvested

yield,

1995 and Forecasted November 1,

74,000
36,500
110,500

165,000

36,000
50,000
86,000

7,300
46,000
53,300

414,800

1,100

3,900
7,500
11,400

3,700
590
4,290
16,790

7,600
195,000
2,900
8,300
8,300
48,000
10,000
2,000
282,100

8,000
3,500
11,500
293,600

--- Pounds --
1,920 2,000
1,935 2,200
1,925 2,066
1,860 2,000
1,845 2,200
2,100 2,300
1,997 2,258
2,455 2,700
2,000 2,420
2,067 2,458
1,933 2,130
1,400 1,700
2,370 2,700
2,285 2,500
2,314 2,568
2,600 3,000
2,450 2,800
2,580 2,972
2,322 2,615
2,030 1,970
1,950 2,100
2,025 2,200
1,290 1,900
1,950 1,750
1,700 2,050
1,540 2,100
1,300 1,850
1,863 2,071
1,350 1,500
1,900 1,850
1,507 1,607
1,846 2,053

1995

130,560
65,790
196,350

280,860

62,730
105,000
167,730

17,676
84,000
101, 676
746,616

1,540

9,243
17,366
26,609

9,620
1,421
11,041
39,190

13,601
302,250
5,468
10,449
15,015
73,100
13,860
2,600
436,343

11,475
6,460
17,935
454,278

-- 1,000

and Production by Class, Type,
1996

Production

Pounds --

148,000
80,300
228,300

330,000

79,200
115,000
194,200

19,710
111,320
131,030
883,530

1,870

10,530
18,750
29,280

11,100

1,652
12,752
43,902

14,972
409,500
6,380
15,770
14,525
98,400
21,000
3,700
584,247

12,000
6,475
18,475
602,722

--continued

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

United States,

Yield per Hectare and Production,
1995-96
(Metric Units)

Production

Crop

Yield per Hectare

Oats
Barley
All Wheat

Winter

Durum

Other Spring
Rye
Sunflower
All Hay

Alfalfa

All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Dry Edible Peas
Austrian Winter Peas
Lentils
Potatoes

Winter

Spring

Summer
Hops
Ginger Root (HI)
Apples, Comm'1
Peaches
Pears
Grapes
Sweet Cherries
Tart Cherries
Apricots
Olives (CA)
Dried Prunes (CA)
Prunes and Plums

(Excl CA)
Almonds (CA)
Pecans

Walnuts (CA)

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production
November 1996

36

39
277
+40
58
.09

+29
+63
.05
+00
+25

Metric Tons

2,351,820
7,828,540
59,400,400
42,038,570
2,783,610
14,578,220
255,640
1,818,610
140,419,500
77,092,560
63,326,940
1,407,590
209,060
5,400
97,300

112,170
915,940
813,340
35,770
2,630
4,869,770
1,043,850
860,240
5,385,320
149,910
179,440
53,070
70,310
164,200

20,870
167,830
121,560
212,280

2,253,080 ©
8,640,410
62,099,410
40,225,870
3,152,650
18,720,890

1,527,940
137,746,930
73,252,450
64,494,480
1,224,200
103,510
4,670
55,380

148,460
961,480
866,130

35,780
4,260

4,811,930
904,190
710,690

5,410,450
120,840
112,450

66,500
127,010
181,440

17,240
240,400
113,720
199,580

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Percentage Distributions by Row Width and Average
Row Width for Selected States, 1992-96 1/

Row Width (Inches) 2/

State :Number

Percent Inches

IL 1992 : 233 57.9 13.3 14.2 13.7 0.9 32.0
1993: 244 50.8 17.2 13.1 15.2 3.7 32.4
1994 241 52.3 21.6 9.1 11.6 5.4 32.1
1995 268 56.7 19.4 10.5 12.3 1.1 31.9
1996 257 63.4 14.4 10.9 9.3 2.0 31.7

IN 1992 : 163 67.5 15.9 8.6 4.3 3.7 31.2
1993: 166 63.3 22.3 6.0 8.4 0.0 31.2
1994 158 69.7 13.9 8.2 6.3 1.9 31.2
1995 175 59.4 21.8 11.4 6.3 1.2 31.4
1996 146 60.3 21.2 8.9 7.5 2.1 31.5

TA 1992 : 242 43.0 18.6 10.7 18.2 9.5 33.1
1993: 259 47.4 15.5 6.6 22.0 8.5 33.1
1994 276 44.5 20.7 6.2 21.0 7.6 32.9
1995 288 45.2 14.6 7.6 21.9 10.7 33.3
1996 281 47.3 19.2 7.5 19.6 6.4 32.7

MN 1992 : 188 59.5 12.8 9.0 14.4 4.3 31.9
1993 158 62.0 13.9 5.1 12.7 6.3 32.0
1994 168 61.3 15.5 7.7 9.5 6.0 31.7
1995 163 64.4 12.2 6.8 14.1 2.5 31.3
1996 165 60.6 13.9 13.9 7.9 3.7 31.8

NE 1992 : 216 28.7 19.9 27.8 17.1 6.5 33.7
1993 : 206 34.5 18.9 22.3 18.9 5.4 33.4
1994 211 31.7 19.5 27.0 16.6 5.2 33.5
1995 205 36.1 15.6 28.3 16.1 3.9 33.6
1996 234 38.0 11.6 35.0 12.8 2.6 33.4

OH 1992 : 142 62.7 15.5 6.3 8.5 7.0 31.9
1993: 133 66.1 19.5 2.3 6.0 6.1 31.6
1994 127 55.9 26.8 5.5 9.4 2.4 31.5
1995 132 56.1 30.3 2.3 8.3 3.0 31.5
1996 101 64.4 17.8 5.9 9.9 2.0 31.4

WI 1992 : 123 26.0 19.6 10.6 26.8 17.0 34.4
1993: 412 25.9 23.3 16.0 22.3 12.5 34.0
1994 : 115 30.4 20.9 10.4 26.1 12.2 34.1
1995 : 110 36.4 15.4 8.2 23.6 16.4 34.0
1996 84 1.2 33.3 23.8 6.0 23.8 11.9 33.5

1/ MI, MO, and SD no longer included in the objective yield program beginning
with 1996.

2/ Spacings based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective
yield survey.

3/ For 1992 - 1995 this column of data contains information for 30.5 or less.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-25 NASS, USDA


NENciy National
Agricultural

Statistics

Production uspa

Washington, D.C.

Released November 12, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on “Crop Production” call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m.
to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics,
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural
Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. Forecasts
refer to November 1, 1996. The “Crop Production” U.S. Summary is available on
Autofax, (202) 720-2000, report 1150. See Page B-15. Index is located at the
end of this report.

Corn, Soybeans, and Cotton Up From Last Month

Corn production is forecast at 9.27 billion bushels, 3 percent above the October
1 forecast and up 26 percent from 1995. This is the third largest production on
record behind 1994 and 1992. Based om conditions as of November 1, yields are
expected to average 126.5 bushels per acre, up 3.5 bushels from last month and
13.0 bushels from 1995. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is
forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month. Forecasted yields
increased in all the major corn producing States due to favorable fall weather
conditions.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.40 billion bushels as of November 1, up

2 percent from the October 1 forecast and 10 percent above the 1995 production.
This is the second largest production on record behind 1994, The yield is
forecast at 37.9 bushels per acre, 0.9 bushels above October 1 and up

2.6 bushels from 1995. Yield potential improved with nearly ideal weather
conditions late in the growing season.

Cr Pr 2-2 (11-96)


U.S. Corn Production

1987 - 1996
Billion Bushels

11.00

| 10.10

10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00

6.00

5.00

ou I i i 1 i IL
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Year

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

- 1,000 Acres

-~ 1,000 Bushels

AL 1/ 8 10 40.0 45.0 45.0 320 450
AR 185 215 71.0 74.0 76.0 13,135 16,340
co 165 220 28.0 38.0 44.0 4,620 9,680
GA 1/ 30 40 37.0 40.0 40.0 1,110 1,600
IL 170 230 69.0 74.0 74.0 11,730 17,020
KS 3,100 4,600 56.0 76.0 80.0 173,600 368,000
KY 1/ 22 19 84.0 92.0 92.0 1,848 1,748
LA 84 155 70.0 78.0 76.0 5,880 11,780
MS 41 72 65.0 68.0 66.0 2,665 4,752
MO 490 650 73.0 92.0 92.0 35,770 59,800
NE 980 1,000 58.0 90.0 94.0 56,840 94,000
NM 130 225 26.0 38.0 38.0 3,380 8,550
NC 1/ 10 10 65.0 53.0 53.0 650 530
OK 320 480 40.0 52.0 $2.0 12,800 24,960
sc 1/ 8 5 40.0 45.0 45.0 320 225
sD 120 160 40.0 55.0 55.0 4,800 8,800
TN 1/ 15 13 87.0 88.0 88.0 1,305 1,144
TX 2,400 3,900 54.0 49.0 49.0 129,600 191,100
us 8,278 12,004 55.6 66.4 68.4 460,373 820,479

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-12 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

Area Harvested

- Bushels ~ -- 1,000 Bushels --
AL 0 80.0 80.0 16,500 21,600
AZ 1/ 0 175.0 175.0 3,740 6,125
AR 1/ te) 95.0 95.0 9,775 18,050
CA 0 170.0 170.0 24,000 37,400
co 0 140.0 140.0 92,130 131,600
CT 2/
DE QO 130.0 133.0 14,595 19,950
FL 1/ ie} 80.0 80.0 5,400 8,000
GA 0 97.0 97.0 31,500 52,380
ID 1/ 0 125.0 125.0 4,900 5,000
IL 0 235.0 137.0 1,130,000 1,479,600
IN a) 120.0 124.0 598,900 675,800
IA + 11,400 12,400 123.0 135.0 140.0 1,402,200 1,736,000
KS 1,970 2,350 124.0 145.0 155.0 244,280 364,250
KY 1,140 1,200 108.0 122.0 125.0 123,120 150,000
LA 1/ 221 535 105.0 110.0 110.0 23,205 58,850
ME 2/
MD 400 465 105.0 126.0 132.0 42,000 61,380
MA 2/
MI 2,170 2,350 115.0 94.0 94.0 249,550 220,900
MN 6,150 7,000 119.0 117.0 121.0 731,850 847,000
MS 1/ 275 610 95.0 93.0 93.0 26,125 56,730
MO 1,470 2,600 102.0 128.0 135.0 149,940 351,000
MT 1/ 16 20 120.0 130.0 130.0 1,920 2,600
NE 7,700 8,250 111.0 143.0 144.0 854,700 1,188,000
NH 2/
NJ 1/ 78 94 93.0 107.0 107.0 7,254 10,058
NM 1/ 73 80 160.0 165.0 165.0 11,680 13,200
NY 610 700 105.0 111.0 111.0 64,050 77,700
NC 700 930 107.0 88.0 88.0 74,900 81,840
ND 510 700 79.0 84.0 95.0 40,290 66,500
OH 3,100 2,750 121.0 108.0 114.0 375,100 313,500
OK 1/ 130 180 125.0 105.0 105.0 16,250 18,900
OR 1/ 21 28 160.0 180.0 180.0 3,360 5,040
PA 980 1,050 96.0 123.0 123.0 94,080 129,150
RI 2/
sc 265 380 91.0 75.0 75.0 24,115 28,500
SD 2,450 3,650 79.0 90.0 95.0 193,550 346,750
TN 540 680 118.0 113.0 113.0 63,720 76,840
TX 1,900 1,800 114.0 95.0 102.0 216,600 183,600
UT 1/ 20 22 100.0 135.0 135.0 2,000 2,970
VT 2/
VA 275 300 111.0 124.0 129.0 30,525 38,700
WA l/ 102 115 190.0 180.0 180.0 19,380 20,700
wy 1/ 40 40 100.0 100.0 100.0 4,000 4,000
wi 3,050 3,200 114.0 107.0 109.0 347,700 348,800
wy 1/ 48 55 104.0 115.0 115.0 4,992 6,325
US 64,995 73,269 113.5 123.0 126.5 7,373,876 9,265,288

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-11 NASS, USDA


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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-15 NASS, USDA

sr U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1996 417-039/41094


October Weather Summary: A mid-month pattern change chilled the West and warmed

the East--reversing a 2-week trend--and promoted an
active storm track from the West to the Great Lakes region, Until mid-October,
significant precipitation, including that produced by Tropical Storm Josephine,
was confined to southern Texas and the East Coast States. Josephine made
landfall southeast of Tallahassee, FL on the night of October 7 and scooted
along the Eastern Seaboard during the next 36 hours. Farther west, frequent,
dynamic storms dumped heavy mountain snowfall. One late-month storm dipped
southward through California, delivering the season's first significant
precipitation and dousing a rash of wildfires.

Despite late-October's barrage of storms, drier-than~normal weather prevailed on
the central and southern Plains. In addition, often windy weather dried
topsoils, limiting moisture for winter wheat establishment. Farther north,
frequent heavy precipitation soaked the primary storm track from Wyoming to the
northern Corn Belt. The month's strongest storm swept across the Plains and
Midwest on October 29-30, spurring 50 to 70 mph wind gusts. Meanwhile, the
storms' cold fronts sparked surplus rainfall in the Delta and Arklatex regions.
In southern Florida, a 3-week spate of heavy rains culminated in a brush with
Hurricane Lili on October 18. Farther north, a slow-moving disturbance caused
extensive flooding in New England on October 19-22.

During New England's stormy spell, 24-hour rainfall rates topped 10 inches and
3-day totals reached 19 inches in southern Maine. The storm contributed heavily
to October-record rainfall in locations such as Boston, MA (10.66 inches) and

Portland, ME (14.76 inches). Monthly rainfall also surpassed 10 inches in parts
of Peninsular Florida, including Daytona Beach (11.15 inches; 270 percent of
normal) and Ft. Lauderdale (11.76 inches; 185 percent of normal). October-

record precipitation was observed in and around the Black Hills, where Rapid
city, SD received 4.49 inches. On October 25-26, a State-record 38.9 inches of
snow blanketed nearby Lead, SD in 24 hours. Elsewhere, monthly ‘snowfall reached
17.9 inches in Casper, WY, 8.7 inches in Colorado Springs, CO, 6.2 inches in
Flagstaff, az, 5.1 inches in Salt Lake City, UT, and 5.0 inches in Bismarck, ND.
On October 21-23, a storm traveled from the Southwest to the Great Lakes States,
inducing a stripe of record snowfall. Storm-total snowfalls of 6.5 inches in
Kansas City, MO and 8.0 inches in Topeka, KS demolished former monthly records.

Farther west, more than twice the normal monthly rainfall soaked locations such
as Portland, OR (5.38 inches) and Spokane, WA (3.27 inches). From the Arklatex
to the Delta, much of the month's rain fell on October 21-22 and 24-25.
Nevertheless, totals reached 9.57 inches (242 percent of normal) in Lake
Charles, LA and 7.12 inches (237 percent of normal) in Memphis, TN. In
contrast, monthly precipitation failed to reach a half-inch at many sites from
Nebraska to western Texas, including Norfolk, NE (0.26 inches), Concordia, KS
(0.48 inches), and Midland, TX (0.20 inches).

Between October 4-13, more than 150 daily-record highs were set across the West.
The warmth was replaced by sharply colder air by October 17, fueling more than
five dozen daily-record lows thereafter. The reversal balanced monthly
temperatures, resulting in departures of -4 to +1 degree F. The opposite
scenario--cold followed by warmth--transpired in the Midwest and East, where a
total of about two dozen daily-record lows were set on October 3-5 and 8-12.
Although the season's first freeze was approximately on schedule for the
northern Corn Belt, some late-planted corn and soybeans sustained damage. The
East's most dramatic warm spell got underway on October 26 (more than two dozen
daily-record highs), less than a week before a surge of cool, ary air overspread
the Nation. Overall, monthly temperatures in the East ranged from 2 degrees F
below normal to 2 degrees F above normal.

The West's warm spell produced several monthly record highs in Utah on October
8-11, and nearly resulted in an all-time record at Monterey, CA on October 7.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-3 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM PALIVER)

October 26, 1996 UPDATED BIWEEKLY

Q

Last Chart For This Season

INOAW/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY | easacon pratiminary report

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index) .

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-2 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Oats
Barley
All Wheat

Winter

Durum

Other Spring
Rye
Sunflower
Flaxseed
All Hay

Alfalfa

All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Dry Edible Peas
Austrian Winter Peas
Lentils
Potatoes

Winter

Spring

Summer
Sweetpotatoes
Hops
Ginger Root (HI)

(Metric Units)

2,564,120
2,706,970
27,977,030
19,702,740
1,390,510
6,883,780
648,310
1,407,510
66,770

837,430
80,130
4,410
64,510

5,380
35,730
29,340
35,370

1,
2,
30,
21,
1,
8,

1,

Area Planted and Harvested, United States,

Hectares
886,260 1,198,690
903,250 2,541,050
610,350 24,663,830
037,000 16,580,960
464,980 1,358,140
108,370 6,724,730
593,680 155,810
127,870 1,363,000
45,330 59,490
24,191,960
9,942,830
14,249,130
735,730 768,630
76,890 78,510
3,480 3,120
51,800 62,480
5,870 4,820
37,190 34,120
32,330 28,610
36,180 33,830
17,480
50

1995-96

1,087,400
2,746,630
25,434,770
16,069,840
1,435,030
7,929,900
140,430
1,086,590
42,900
24,523,810
9,816,160
14,707,650
690,240
74,060
2,950
50,990

5,870
36,100
30,880
34,880
17,860

80

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production
November 1996

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS,

USDA


Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

Tons (In-shell Basis)

OR : 21,000 38,800 19,900
WA 1/ 3 100 200 100

us 39,000

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1995-96

Month
zoo -- Acres -----
Sep z 3,750 3,960 2,330 3,165
Oct : 3,740 4,015 2,375 3,130
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1996 A-22 NASS, USDA


open and running packing house eliminations. Caretakers generally were not very
busy during October as most grove operations are trying to cut costs. There was
cover crop cutting prior to harvest and for fire prevention. Also, fresh fruit
groves were sprayed for insects with oils. A few growers applied early winter
fertilizers where needed.

Texas Citrus: Harvest was moving ahead in the Rio Grande Valley at a normal
pace. Quality this season on both oranges and grapefruit is very
good. Sizes continue to run slightly smaller than the previous year.

Hazelnuts: Production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 20,000 tons,

unchanged from last month but 49 percent below 1995. The crop is
expected to total 19,900 tons in Oregon and 100 tons in Washington. Harvest in
western Oregon is nearly complete. Wet conditions slowed harvest this year, and
much cleaning and drying of nuts remains to be done. Nut sizes are expected to
be larger than last year.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is 3.14 million pounds for October,
15 percent higher than September and up slightly from a year ago.

Weather conditions were mixed during October. The first two weeks were mostly
dry over major papaya producing areas. Sporadic showers in the second half of
October helped restore soil moisture, but additional rainfall would be welcome.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 4,015 acres in October, 1 percent
higher than September and 7 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area,
totaling 3,130 acres, was 1 percent lower than last month but 32 percent more
than last October.

California Fruits and Nuts: The raisin grape harvest neared completion by the

end of October. Table and wine grape picking
continued throughout the month in Fresno County and neared completion by month's
end. The almond harvest was nearly complete. Harvest of early season walnut
varieties continued and harvest of mid-and late-season varieties began in
various areas of the State. The pistachio harvest was approximately 90 percent
complete. Harvest of Granny Smith, Gala, and Fuji apples progressed in the San
Joaquin Valley. Golden Delicious and Red Delicious apples were harvested in the
Sonoma County area. Olive, fig, and pomegranate harvests continued in the San
Joaquin Valley.

California Citrus: Grapefruit in the desert area had good appearance with

smooth texture. Picking of desert lemons was active with
excellent grades. Navel orange harvest was slow in the Central Valley due to
lack of color. Quality was good for the Navels that were picked. Harvest of
the Valencia orange crop was near completion. Mandarin orange harvest began in
the San Joaquin Valley at the end of October.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-10 NASS, USDA



Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between October 24 and November 4 to gather information on
expected yield as of November 1. The objective yield surveys for corn,
soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually
account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots
were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected
plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of
plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to
forecast the number of ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are
used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological
yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net
yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is
harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field,
another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 14,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield,

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
November 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The November i production forecast wiil not be revised;

instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a
balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports,
processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the November 1

production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
November 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1976-1995 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average
becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 2.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the current production forecast of 9.3 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 2.4 percent or approximately

222 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that
the difference will not exceed 4.2 percent or approximately 389 million bushels.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-11 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield
surveys in 5 States which account for about 65 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton
production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton
fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1
through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts
shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not
official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September and November 1992-1996,
and Final, 1992-1995 1/

Arkansas California

1992: 858 875 896 713 708
1993 662 661 697 619 608
1994 747 748 864 761 760
1995 615 615 682 607 607
1996 655 816 770

1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls
(at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and
burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-28 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

CrOP Etter ne nnn en nnn nnn n nnn e snort rn nn ernst nse s nen
1995 1996 1995 1996
1,000 Acres
Corn : 71,245 79,555 64,995 73,269
Sorghum : 9,454 13,284 8,278 12,004
Rice : 3,121.0 2,935.0 3,093.0 2,909.0
Soybeans : 62,575 64,315 61,624 63,440
Peanuts 3 1,537.5 1,428.0 1,517.0 1,410.5
All Cotton :  16,931.4 14,243.0 16,006.7 12,779.6
Upland : 16,716.8 13,979.0 15,795.6 12,517.7
Amer-Pima : 214.6 264.0 211.1 261.9
Potatoes +
Fall 3 1,224.1 1,269.1 1,205.2 1,246.2
Total : 1,398.2 1,455.4 1,372.1 1,426.2
Tobacco : 663.1 738.7
Sugarbeets : 1,444.6 1,374.1 1,417.1 1,324.0
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 932.3 882.0

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

Hectares

Corn : 28,832,140 32,195,110 26,302,830 29,651,230
Sorghum : 3,825,940 5,375,900 3,350,020 4,857,900
Rice : 1,263,040 1,187,770 1,251,710 1,177,240
Soybeans : 25,323,480 26,027,640 24,938,620 25,673,530
Peanuts H 622,210 577,900 613,910 570,820
All Cotton : 6,851,970 5,764,000 6,477,750 5,171,780

Upland : 6,765,120 5,657,160 6,392,320 5,065,790

Amer-Pima 3 86,850 106,840 85,430 105,990
Potatoes :

Fall 3 495,380 513,590 487,730 504,320

Total : 565,840 588,990 555,280 577,170
Tobacco : 268,350 298,940
Sugarbeets : 384,620 556,080 573,490 535,810
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed : 377,290 356,940

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-4 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

1995 : 1996 1995 t 1996

1,000 Acres -- -- 1,000 Bushels --
AL : 225 31524.

0 29.0 31.0 5,400 9,765
AR : 3,400 3,600 26.0 32.0 32.0 88,400 115,200
DE : 233 215 20.0 32.0 32.0 4,660 6,880
FL 1/ : 28 33 26. 30.0 30.0 728 990
GA 310 390 27.0 26.0 26.0 8,370 10,140
IL 9,700 9,850 39.0 39.0 41.0 378,300 403,850
IN 4,980 5,360 39.5 38.0 39.0 196,710 209,040
IA 9,260 9,450 44.0 44.0 44.0 407,440 415,800
KS 2,050 2,000 25.0 34.0 38.0 51,250 76,000
KY 1,150 1,180 36.0 37.0 38.0 41,400 44,840
LA 1,040 1,050 25.0 33.0 33.0 26,000 34,650
MD 510 480 23.0 33.0 34.0 11,730 16,320
MI 1,490 1,640 40.0 32.0 29.0 59,600 47,560
MN 5,800 5,900 AQ.5 37.0 38.0 234,900 224,200
MS 1,800 1,750 21.0 29.0 29.0 37,800 50,750
MO 4,500 4,050 29.5 36.0 39.0 132,750 157,950
NE 3,060 3,010 33.0 45.0 46.0 100,980 138,460
No 1/ 138 127 22.0 35.0 35.0 3,036 4,445
NC 1,070 1,200 25.0 29.0 29.0 26,750 34,800
ND 640 820 29.0 29.0 28.0 18,560 22,960
OH 4,030 4,490 38.0 34.0 35.0 153,140 157,150
OK 1/ 275 285 20.0 24.0 24.0 5,500 6,840
PA 1/ 315 285 30.0 44.0 44.0 9,450 12,540
sc 530 540 24.0 26.0 26.0 12,720 14,040
sD 2,500 2,650 30.0 34.0 34.0 75,000 90,100
TN 1,080 1,150 32.0 35.0 35.0 34,560 40,250
TX 240 270 25.0 29.0 30.0 6,000 8,100
VA : 470 480 24.0 33.0 35.0 11,280 16,800
Wr : 800 870 43.0 37.0 37.0 34,400 32,190
us 61,624 63,440 35.3 37.0 37.9 2,176,814 2,402,610

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

U.S. Soybean Production

1987 - 1996
Billion Bushels

2.80

2.60
2.40
2.20 :
2

-00

=

-80

1.60

° . A A ‘ A
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-15 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

Production 1/

and United States,

Area Harvested

- 1,000 Acres -

Upland
AL 578.0 556.
AZ 364.0 324.
AR 1,110.0 990.
CA 1,165.0 995,
FL 3/ 109.0 100.
GA 1,490.0 1,375.
KS 3/ 2.6 1
LA : 1,075.0 940.
MS : 1,420.0 1,030.
MO 3 453.0 405.
NM 56.0 54
NC 800.0 720.
OK 315.0 240.
sc 342.0 265.
TN : 660.0 520.
TX : 5,750.0 3,900.
VA 3/ : 106.0 102.
us : 15,795.6 12,517.

Amer-Pima :
AZ 3 48.1 39.
CA 3 115.0 165.
NM : 15.0 ay.
TX 33.0 40.
us 211.1 261.

All
AL 578.0 556
AZ 412.1 363
AR 1,110.0 390
CA 1,280.0 1,160
FL 3/ 109.0 100
GA 1,490.0 1,375.
KS 3/ 2.6 1
LA 1,075.0 940
MS 1,420.0 1,030
MO 453.0 405
NM 71.0 71
Nc 800.0 720
OK 315.0 240
sc 342.0 265
TN 660.0 520
TX 5,783.0 3,940
VA 3/ 106.0 102
us 16,006.7 12,779

SOS0000000ND00000

409
1,046
635
953
472
625
185
614
622
544
609
479
187
528
527
372
620

533

720
937
605
756

836

409
1,008
635
951
472
625
185
614
622
544
608
479
187
528
527
375
620

1,

1,

1,

1.

1,

1,

Pounds --- -

699
170
742
206
672
698
311
684
778
723
720
633
300
725
600
451
706

665

818
193
734
756

039

699
132
742
204
672
698
311
684
778
723
723
633
300
725
600
454
706

699
1,170
776
1,206
672
698
311
664
839
711
720
660
270
779
600
498
706

691

818
1,193
734
756

1,039

699
1,132
776
1,204
672
698
311
664
839
711
723
660
270
779
600
501
706

1,000 Bales 2/

492.
793.
1,468.
2,312.
107.
1,941.
1.
1,375.
1,841.
513.
71.
798.
123.
376.
724,
4,460.
137.

17,532.
72.
224.
52.

367.

810.

790.

1,600.

2,500.

140.

2,000.
1

1,300.
1,800.
600.
81.
990.
135.
430.
650.
4,050.
150.

18,027.
68.
410.
26.

63.

567.

PB eccocscoceoorscooooo

bk SeCD0D0D0D0000KCOOO00

e000

°

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-1b net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production
November 1996

A-17

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS,

USDA


Summary: Production, United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted 1996-97

Crop

Nov 1,
1996 1/

Crop Year

Citrus Fruits 2/
Oranges
Grapefruit
Lemons
Tangerines
Temples (FL)
Tangelos (FL)
K-Early Citrus (FL)

Oranges

Grapefruit

Lemons

Tangerines

Temples (FL)
Tangelos (FL)
K-Early Citrus (FL)

1995-96

11,723
2,718
992
348

97

110

10,634,930
2,465,730
899,930
315,700
88,000
99,790
6,350

1,000 Tons

12,380
3,041
1,015

415
113
171

9

Metric Tons

11,230,950
2,758,750
920,790
376,480
102,510
155,130
8,160

1996-97

1/ Citrus production will no longer be forecasted in November.

forecast will be in December 1996.
2/ Crop year begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the

completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production
November 1996

The next

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Burley production is forecast at 584 million pounds, 1 percent below October 1
projections but 34 percent above 1995. The change from last year reflects a
20 percent acreage increase and higher yields. Average yields, at 2,071 pounds
per acre, decreased 30 pounds from a month ago but are expected to average

208 pounds above 1995.

Kentucky burley was 25 percent stripped, lagging behind both last year and the
5-year average. Stripped tobacco was rated in mostly good condition with few
reports of houseburn. Some producers reported that blue mold has affected leaf
quality and weight.

Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 26.8 million tons, a
decrease of 4 percent from 1995. Area for harvest, at 1.32 million

acres, is down slightly from October and down 7 percent from last year. The

decline in harvested acreage is largely attributable to the discovery of

duplicate acreage reported. The average yield, at 20.2 ton per acre, is up

0.4 ton from last year's yield.

Harvest activity in the Red River Valley started in early September and was
complete by the end of October, ahead of schedule with better than expected
yields reported. Plant development in the Great Lakes started the month behind
the average for the region, but was aided by a late frost and moderate weather
during most of October. The harvest in the Great Lakes region was delayed by
late-October rains but was virtually completed by the beginning of November.
Frequent rains and hail in the High Plains late in the growing season lowered
yield potential. The sugarbeet harvest neared completion in the Mountain
States, where hot, dry summer and fall weather caused some producers to wait for
cooler weather to increase sugar content.

Sugarcane: Sugarcane production for U.S. sugar and seed in 1996 is expected to

total 28.0 million tons, down 9 percent from 1995, but up 2 percent
from October. Area for harvest, at 882,000 acres, was up slightly from
October, and 1 percent above last year. The forecasted yield, at 31.8 tons per
acre, is 1.2 tons below last year's yield.

Over one-quarter of Louisiana’s sugarcane acreage was harvested by early
November, slightly behind normal. Heavy rains struck Louisiana after the
harvest began and caused lodging that slowed harvest activity and spoiled some
cane that was cut and piled in the field. Favorable harvest weather arrived in
Florida in late October, but sugarcane mills started the season one week later
than expected. In Texas, drought and irrigation water shortages early in the
growing season left uneven sugarcane development. Adequate rainfall in late
summer and in early autumn revived the crop and early harvest results indicate
mills may avoid harvesting marginal fields to reach sugar production targets.
Continued dry conditions and irrigation water shortages in Hawaii were beginning
to affect sugarcane fields.

Florida Citrus: Most areas of Florida's citrus belt recorded above average
rainfall for October; however, most was recorded during the
first half of the month. The last part of the month was generally dry and
caretakers were using their irrigation equipment to maintain good tree
condition. New growth slowed the last of October due to the lack of rain and
fewer hours of sunlight. Harvesting of early citrus increased during the month.
Picking crews moved Hamlin, Navel, and Ambersweet oranges; Fallglo and Robinson
early tangerines; white and colored grapefruit; Satsumas; and K-Early Citrus
fruit. By the end of October, approximately 10 to 12 processing plants were

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-9 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: ‘Pods with Beans and Row Width

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting soybean objective
yield surveys in 8 States during 1996. Plots are randomly selected from a
scientifically drawn sample of soybean fields, which are visited monthly from
August through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements. Sample data
and the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the following table
are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates but are intended to
show trends in soybean production practices.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet
Selected States, 1992 - 1996 1/ 2/

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 4/
Number of Pods

NA NA NA NA NA
1,713 1,399 1,782 1,755 1,521
1,705 1,327 1,673 1,609
1,698 1,937 1,745 1,816 1,505
1,503 1,712 1,639 1,764 1,573
1,502 1,701 1,636 1,764
1,623 1,938 1,850 1,755 1,416
1,543 1,703 1,574 1,677 1,470
1,543 1,703 1,570 1,677
1,501 1,336 1,887 1,739 1,654
1,464 1,340 1,820 1,611 1,463
1,473 1,340 1,820 1,616
1,431 1,037 1,678 1,613 1,543
1,367 1,106 1,496 1,502 1,487
1,367 1,105 1,496 1,502
1,682 1,493 1,470 895 1,491
1,607 1,727 1,643 1,462 1,688
1,602 1,699 1,659 1,469
1,517 1,469 1,676 1,404 1,715
1,504 1,414 1,826 1,420 1,514
1,509 1,445 1,826 1,420
1,462 1,617 1,950 1,790 1,452
1,394 1,361 1,643 1,647 1,378
1,404 1,361 1,643 1,650

1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ Final pod counts will be published in January.

3/ Not available due to plant immaturity.

4/ Pod counts for September were revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-26 NASS, USDA


All cotton production is forecast at 18.6 million bales, up 2 percent from last
month and a 4 percent increase from last year. Yield is indicated at 698 pounds
per acre, up 161 pounds from 1995. This is the third highest production on
record, and the fourth highest yield. Late August rainfall in Texas and
favorable October weather resulted in the highest large boll count and the
second highest boll weight in 10 years, and forecasted production increased
200,000 bales in Texas from October, The Mississippi forecast increased
130,000 bales from last month as favorable weather and light insect pressure
increased yield potential.

This report was approved on November 12, 1996, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service'sa Agricultural
‘Statistics Board.

Acting Secretar Agricultural Statistics Board

Agriculture Chairperson
Richard E. Rominger Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1996 A-2 NASS, USDA


defoliation. Frost in the Tennessee Valley ended the growing season for
soybeans and helped the plants shed leaves.

Powerful winds and rain on October 29-30 delayed harvest activity and damaged
some row crops in the western Corn Belt. A wide-spread freeze at the end of
October in the Central States aided the dry down of high-moisture grain. Wet
weather over the upper Delta slowed harvest activity but brought much-needed
moisture to recently planted small grain fields. Winter wheat planting finished
the month slightly ahead of the average. At month’s end high average corn
moisture levels slowed the harvest in the Midwest, where high winds toppled some
stalks that were damaged by corn borers.

Corn for Grain: Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.3 million

acres, unchanged from last month, but up 13 percent from 1995.
The November 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level ear count per
acre for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota,
Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The previous record final ears per acre was set
in 1992. As of November 3, 64 percent of the acreage in the 17 major States was
harvested. This compares with 84 percent for 1995 and 72 percent for the five-
year average. In the Midwest, corn harvest was slowed by high grain moisture
levels. Strong winds the last few days of October caused some damage in the
western Corn Belt.

In Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska, the forecasted ear population is at a record
high level. In Iowa, 62 percent of the corn was harvested as of November 3,
compared to 85 percent in 1995 and the average of 71 percent. Sixty-nine
percent of the corn was harvested in Illinois, lagging behind last year’s

93 percent and the five-year average of 83 percent. In Nebraska, 71 percent was
harvested slightly behind the 73 percent for 1995 but ahead of the average of

70 percent.

Minnesota and Wisconsin ear populations are above 1995 and the five-year
average. Seventy-eight percent of the corn was harvested in Minnesota, lagging
behind last year’s 82 percent, but ahead of the average of 66 percent. In
Wisconsin, 36 percent of the corn was harvested compared to 77 percent in 1995
and the average of 54 percent.

Forecasted ear counts in Indiana are below 1995 but above the five-year average.
Forty-seven percent of the crop was harvested compared to 92 percent in 1995 and
72 percent for the five-year average.

In Ohio, ear counts are below 1995 and the five-year average. As of November 3,
35 percent of the corn was harvested, compared to 77 percent a year ago and the
five-year average of 63 percent.

Sorghum for Grain: The final monthly production forecast for the 1996 crop is

820 million bushels, 3 percent higher than the October
forecast and 78 percent above 1995. The U.S. yield is forecast at 68.4 bushels
per acre, up 2.0 bushels from last month and 12.8 bushels above 1995. This is
the fourth highest yield on record. Yield increases in Arkansas, Colorado,
Kansas, and Nebraska, more than offset yield declines in Mississippi and
Louisiana. Area harvested for grain, at 12.0 million acres, is unchanged from
October, but 45 percent above last year.

As of November 3, 74 percent of the crop in the 12 major States had been
harvested, seven points behind the five-year average. High grain moisture
levels and wet field conditions have slowed harvest in Illinois and Nebraska
with progress lagging 32 and 23 points behind normal, respectively.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 B-5 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next “Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on
December 12, 1996.

Texas grapefruit production is no longer forecasted on November 1. The next
Texas grapefruit forecast will be made for December 1 and released in the
December 12, 1996 “Crop Production” report along with the other State’s
forecasts of citrus fruit production. Since the only citrus forecast

in November in the past was Texas’ grapefruit, the Citrus Fruit table will
not be published this month.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief . (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526
Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621
Barbara Rater ~ Peanuts, Rice, Tobacco (202) 720-7688
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285
Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,

Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235

Linda McMillan - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215

Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157
Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,

Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270

Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Crop Production . Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1996 B-14 NASS, USDA


Fall Potatoes: Percent of Major Varieties Planted,
Selected States, 1996 Crop 1/
State : Pet of : Pct of Pet of
and : Planted : Planted Planted
Acres Acres

Varieties

ID

R Burbank 9 R Burbank : R Norkotah :
Shepody z Oo. Shepody z R Burbank : 21.0
R Norkotah : 3. Norland : Snowden : 14.4
Ranger R : 2. Norchip : Norland : 13.0
: Prito-Lay : Goldrush : 11.7
ME : Nor Valley : Atlantic 3 7.5
R Burbank : Gold@rush : Superior 4.0
Superior : Snowden : Frito-Lay : 1.6
Shepody : Itaska : Ranger R : 0.7
Frito-Lay 3 La Soda : Shepody : 0.5

Ontario : R Norkotah : z

R Norkotah : 7 Red Ruby : US (7 States) :
Atlantic : 4. La Rouge : R Burbank : 53.2
Snowden : 4. Kennebec : Shepody 11.3
Katahdin : 3. Sangre : R Norkotah 8.9
Norwis : 3. 3 Norland 4.3
Goldrush : 2 OR : Ranger R 2.8
Chieftain 3 2. R Burbank 3 . Frito-Lay 2.1
Shepody : 25.8 2: Snowden 2.0
MN 3 R Norkotah +: 22.5 2: Goldrush 1.6
R Burbank : Atlantic : Superior 1.4
Norland H Ranger R : Atlantic 1.3
Shepody : Frontier R : Norchip 1.3
R Norkotah : 5. : All Oth Rus 0.8
ND-2225-1R : 3. WA 3 Ontario 0.7
Cascade 3. R Burbank : La Soda 0.5
Pontiac 3. R Norkotah : Nor Valley 0.5
La Soda 1. Shepody 3 Cascade 3 0.3
Nordona 1. Ranger R : : ND-2225-1R : 0.3
Chieftain 1. All Oth Rus : : Pontiac 0.3
Snowden 1. La Soda : : Katahdin 0.3
Red Ruby 1. Norland Chieftain 0.3

1/ NASS conducts potato objective yield surveys in 7 States, accounting for
82 percent of U.S. production. All producing areas of each State are
sampled in proportion to planted acreage. Variety data shown above are
intended to provide information but are not designated as official estimates
of the Agricultural Statistics Board. Objective yield surveys were
discontinued in 1996 in CO, MI, NY, and PA.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-29 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

1,000 Acres -- Pounds 1,000 Cwt --
AR : 1,340 1,240 5,900 5,900 73,020 73,160
CA 3 465 518 7,600 7,800 7,400 35,352 38,332
LA : 570 530 4,600 4,950 5,000 26,209 26,500
MS : 288 218 5,400 5,900 5,900 15,552 12,862
MO 1/ : 112 105 5,300 5,000 5,000 5,936 5,250
TX : 318 298 5,600 6,100 6,000 17,802 17,880
us : 3,093 2,909 5,621 6,053 5,981 173,871 173,984

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All
1,000 Cwt
1994 : 133,445 63,390 944 197,779
1995 : 121,730 51,241 900 173,871
1996 1/ : 114,459 58,337 1,188 173,984

1/ Indicated November 1, 1996, rice class estimates are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-13 NASS, USDA


Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted November 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production 1/

State : :
1 1995 : 1996

1,000 Acres -- -- 1,000 Pounds --

AL : 212.

le} 209.0 2,280 2,300 2,300 483,360 480,700
FL : 81.0 78.0 2,390 2,400 2,700 193,590 210,600
GA 3 592.0 533.0 2,390 2,550 2,600 1,414,880 1,385,800
NM : 20.0 19.5 2,150 2,450 2,450 43,000 47,775
NC : 144.0 126.0 2,410 2,600 2,800 347,040 352,800
OK : 98.0 84.0 2,060 2,500 2,300 201,880 193,200
sc 3 11.0 10.0 2,800 2,600 2,600 30,800 26,000
TX 3 270.0 275.0 2,000 2,050 2,100 540,000 577,500
VA : 89.0 76.0 2,325 2,800 3,000 206,925 228,000
US : 1,517.0 1,410.5 2,282 2,421 2,483 3,461,475 3,502,375

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1994-95
and Forecasted November 1, 1996

1,000 Tons

US 7,603.9 6,848.7 7,128.4

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1996 A-16 NASS, USDA