### Updated: 8/01/201 1

Prelim. Proj.

Year: (production/marketing) 1 / 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. High



### Yield ( bu. per acre ) 42.7 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5 39.0 41.5 43.4 41.0 43.9 45.5



### Lon g -term historical y ield probabilit y 18% 65% 17% 18% 65% 17%



### Soybean Supplies:

Planted acres ( million ) 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.2 75.2 75.2 77.5 77.5 77.5



### Harvested acres ( million ) 74.6 64.1 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.7 73.9 74.0 76.2 76.5 76.5



### Production ( mil. bu. ) 3,188 2,676 2,967 3,359 3,329 2,874 3,067 3,212 3,124 3,358 3,481 

### Beginning carryover ( mil. bu. ) 449 574 205 138 151 190 190 190 120 120 120



### Total Supply 3,647 3,261 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,081 3,270 3,413 3,258 3,486 3,611



### Total Soybean Usage:

Crush ( mil. bu. ) 1,808 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,645 1,460 1,550 1,650 1,575 1,645 1,660



### Seed & residual ( mil. bu. ) 149 93 106 108 125 131 120 115 128 116 116 

### Exports ( mil. bu. ) 1,116 1,159 1,279 1,501 1,535 1,370 1,480 1,510 1,430 1,590 1,630



### Total Usage 3,073 3,056 3,047 3,361 3,305 2,961 3,150 3,275 3,133 3,351 3,406



### Oil Yield, lbs./ bu. of soybeans 2/ 11.3 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.5 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.2 11.4 11.5



### Biodiesel Usage:

So y bean oil use for biodiesel, mil. lbs 2,762 2,981 2,021 1,681 2,400 3,450 3,500 3,550 3,650 3,800 3,850 

### Use for biodiesel, bushel equivalen t 244 258 179 150 210 308 307 309 326 333 335



### So y bean oil for biodiesel, % of oil from crop 7.7% 9.7% 6.0% 4.5% 6.3% 10.7% 10.0% 9.6% 10.4% 9.9% 9.6%



### So y bean oil for biodiesel, % of oil from crush 13.5% 14.3% 10.8% 8.6% 12.7% 21.1% 19.8% 18.7% 20.7% 20.3% 20.2%



### Ending Soybean Carryover: (mil. bu. ) 574 205 138 151 190 120 120 138 125 135 205


### Carryover as percent of suppl y 15.7% 6.3% 4.3% 4.3% 5.4% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.9% 5.7%



### Carr y over, weeks of total us e 9.7 3.5 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 3.1



### Prices:

U.S. wei g hted av g . farm price $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.40 $16.00 $13.50 $12.50 $15.25 $13.75 $11.50



### Iowa wei g hted av g . farm pric e $6.38 $10.05 $9.92 $9.49 $11.35 $15.90 $13.40 $12.40 $15.15 $13.65 $11.40



### Counter-C y clical Pmt

. $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00



### Harvest price ( central Iowa ) $5.45 $8.45 $8.50 $9.50 $10.50 $15.70 $13.00 $11.90 $14.60 $13.25 $10.90


### Nov. futures price ( harvest av g

. ) $6.05 $9.45 $9.10 $9.95 $11.30 $16.50 $13.70 $12.65 $15.40 $13.95 $11.65 

### Soy meal, Decatur, $/T 48% protei n $205 $336 $331 $311 $345 $440 $365 $345 $420 $380 $310



### So y oil, $ per cwt., marketin g y ear av g. $31.00 $52.03 $32.16 $35.95 $53.50 $66.00 $59.00 $56.00 $64.00 $58.00 $55.00



### Y ear-to-Year Change in Mil. Bu. soybean use :

Crush 70 -5 -141 90 -107 -185 -95 5 25 95 110



### Seed & residua l -39 -56 13 2 17 6 -5 -10 8 -4 -4 

### Exports 169 43 120 222 34 -165 -55 -25 -50 110 150 

### Total Usage 200 -17 -8 314 -56 -344 -155 -30 -17 201 256



### Notes:

2/ Long-term probabilities reflect historical changes to final crop estimates.



### Key Balance Sheet Assumptions :
1. No changes in Conservation Reserve Program.
2. Crude oil (petroleum) price stays in $90-$100/barrel range for the rest of 2011, then gradually increases in the next two ye ars. 3. U.S. Ethanol & biodiesel mandates, blending credit, and import tariff are unchanged & enforced. Biodiesel blender's credit is continued through 2012. E-15 blend

approval is continued for 2001 and newer vehicles only.

4. U.S. & World economies accelerate slightly in 2012.

5. U.S. dollar gradually decreases relative to foreign currencies through 2012.

. . . and justice for all 

# Biodiesel Usage Projections & Soybean Balance Sheet (mil. bu.)

Projected 2012-13

1/ Marketing year - starts at Sept. 1 of the production year and ends August 31 of the following year. For example, the 2007 crop is marketed from Sept. 1, 2007 to August 31, 2008.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, col or, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status.

(Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Many materials can be made available in alternative formats for ADA clients. To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and

Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call 202-720-5964.

Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and July 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department o f Agriculture. Cathann A. Kress, director, Cooperative Extension Service, Iowa State University of Science

and Technology, Ames, Iowa. 

### Historic

By Dr. Robert Wisner, biofuels economist, 1-515-294-4275, rwwisner@iastate.edu Projected 2011-12

12-5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Projected2011-12Projected2012-13

Bushels (mil.)Soybean Production, Usage, and CarryoverProductionTotal UsageEnding Carryover3-5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000Historic Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-12 Projected 2012-13

Bushels (mil.)Yearly Production and Beginning Carryover forSoybeansProduction (mil. bu.)Beginning carryover (mil. bu.)4-5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. HighHistoric Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-12 Projected 2012-13

Bushels (mil.)Usage of Soybean SupplyCrush (mil. bu.)Seed & residual (mil. bu.)Exports (mil. bu.)5$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00$10.00$12.00$14.00$16.00$18.000.02.04.06.08.010.012.02006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. HighHistoric Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-12 Projected 2012-13 Soybean Price

Weeks of UseEnding Soybean Carryover and theU.S. Weighted Average Farm PriceEnding Soybean Carryover: (mil. bu.)U.S. weighted avg. farm price6$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00$10.00$12.00$14.00$16.00$18.000.02.04.06.08.010.012.02006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. HighHistoric Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-12 Projected 2012-13 Soybean Price

Weeks of UseEnding Soybean Carryover, Weighted Average IowaFarm Price, and Iowa Harvest PriceEnding Soybean Carryover: (mil. bu.)Iowa weighted avg. farm priceHarvest price (central Iowa)