Cr Pr 2-2 (10-07)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released October 12, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Corn Production Up Slightly from September

Soybean Production Down Less Than 1 Percent

Cotton Production Up 2 Percent

Orange Production Up 29 Percent from Last Season

Corn production is forecast at 13.3 billion bushels, up slightly from last month and 26 percent above 2006. 

Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 154.7 bushels per acre, down 1.1 bushels

from September but 5.6 bushels above last year. If realized, this would be the second highest yield on record,

behind the 160.4 bushel yield in 2004. Production would be the largest on record as growers expect to harvest

the most corn acres for grain since 1933. Forecast yields are higher than last year across the Great Plains,

central Corn Belt and Delta where adequate rainfall during much of the season provided favorable growing

conditions. Expected yields across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic States are

down from last year as drought conditions during much of the growing season reduced soil moisture levels

and stressed the crop.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.60 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the September forecast

and down 19 percent from last year’s record high. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to

average 41.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but down 1.3 bushels from last year. Compared

with last month, yields are forecast lower in Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and most of the

Atlantic Coast States. Hot, dry conditions continued to cause most of the decline, especially in Delaware,

Illinois, Kentucky, Virginia, and the Carolinas, all down at least 2 bushels from last month. Yields increased

from the September 1 forecast in Iowa, Ohio, New York, the Dakotas, and most of the Gulf Coast States.

All Cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month but down

16 percent from last year’s 21.6 million bales. Yield is expected to average 826 pounds per harvested acre, up

15 pounds from last month and up 12 pounds from 2006. If realized, the yield will be the third largest on

record. Harvested area of all cotton is expected to total 10.5 million acres, unchanged from last month but

down 17 percent from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 17.4 million 480-pound bales, up

2 percent from last month but down 17 percent from last year. Growers in the Southeast are expecting lower

production than last month. However, in the Delta and Southwest regions, producers are expecting higher

production than last month with record yields forecast in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. 

American-Pima production is forecast at a record high 775,500 bales, down 2 percent from last month but up

1 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested area is expected to total 289,000 acres, unchanged from

last month but down 11 percent from 2006.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 2 NASS, USDA

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2007-08 season is 9.83 million tons, 29 percent higher than the 2006-07

final utilization of 7.59 million tons. Florida’s all orange forecast, at 168 million boxes (7.56 million tons), is

30 percent higher than last season’s final utilization of 129 million boxes and 14 percent above the 2005-06

final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 81.0 million boxes

(3.65 million tons), 23 percent above last season and 8 percent higher than 2005-06. Florida’s Valencia

forecast, at 87.0 million boxes (3.92 million tons), is 37 percent higher than 2006-07 and 20 percent above

2005-06. Average fruit per tree (excluding Navels) is 52 percent higher than last season on early-midseason

oranges and 59 percent higher on Valencias. Fruit sizes are considerably smaller on all orange varieties.

California’s all orange production forecast for October 1 is 58.0 million boxes (2.18 million tons), up

29 percent from 2006-07 but 5 percent below the 2005-06 final utilization. Navel oranges are forecast at

43.0 million boxes (1.61 million tons), up 26 percent from last season but down 9 percent from the 2005-06

utilization. Fruit set per tree was heavy, but fruit size was smaller than average. Some varieties of Navel

oranges were being picked. The October 1 production forecast for Valencia oranges is 15.0 million boxes

(563,000 tons), up 36 percent from 2006-07 and 7 percent higher than 2005-06. The new season has been

progressing well and growers are expecting a good production year for Valencia oranges.

The Texas October 1 forecast for all oranges is 1.80 million boxes (77,000 tons), down 9 percent from last

season but 13 percent higher than the 2005-06 utilization. Arizona’s all orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes

(12,000 tons), is unchanged from 2006-07 but down 33 percent from 2005-06.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2007-08 season, at 1.60 gallons per

box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is 3 percent lower than last season’s final yield of 1.65 gallons per box. Projected

yield from the 2007-08 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop

Production report. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to

those of the past several seasons.

This report was approved on October 12, 2007.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Keith J. Collins

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Carol C. House
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested Updates .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 4

Grains & Hay

Corn for Grain .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . 6

 Ears Per Acre .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 30

Hay, Alfalfa .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 14

Hay, Other .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 15

Rice .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . 8

 Rice, by Class .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 8

Sorghum for Grain .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 7

Oilseeds

Canola .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 11

Peanuts .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 11

Soybeans..... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . 9

 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 31

Sunflower .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 10

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Cotton .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 12

 Cumulative Bolls Counts .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 32

Cottonseed .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 13

Sugarbeets .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 16

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 16

Tobacco .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . 18

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

Dry Edible Beans .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 17

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts 

Apples .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 21

Grapes .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 23

Papayas .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 23

Prunes .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 23

Pecans .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 22

Citrus

Grapefruit .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 20

Lemons .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 20

Oranges .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . 20

Tangelos .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . 20

Tangerines .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 20

Temples .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . 20

Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops

Potatoes .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . 18

Crop Comments .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 35

Crop Summary .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 24

Information Contacts .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 47

Reliability of Production Data in this Report .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . 45

Weather Maps .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... 33

Weather Summary .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 34
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 4 NASS, USDA

Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State

and United States, 2007

State

Corn Sorghum Soybeans

Planted Harvested Planted Harvested Planted Harvested 111

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

320

55

610

650

1,200

26

195

75

520

310

13,200

6,500

14,300

3,900

1,450

740

28

540

18

2,650

8,400

960

3,400

82

9,400

5

14

95

135

1,040

1,110

2,550

3,850

320

60

1,410

2

400

5,000

870

2,150

70

90

540

190

46

4,050

90

93,616

255

20

590

190

1,050

175

40

470

95

13,000

6,350

13,950

3,600

1,360

730

470

2,360

7,850

940

3,250

30

9,000

78

50

540

1,030

2,250

3,610

270

35

970

375

4,450

810

1,900

22

400

125

31

3,300

50

86,071

10

45

225

32

210

65

80

2,800

13

250

145

110

350

105

13

240

11

10

220

20

2,750

7,704

6

18

215

8

150

45

78

2,600

11

245

135

105

240

50

8

210

4

7

150

17

2,400

6,702

185

2,830

150

14

285

8,250

4,700

8,550

2,600

1,090

610

400

1,750

6,250

1,450

4,600

3,800

80

205

1,420

3,050

4,150

190

420

450

3,200

1,040

85

500

15

1,350

63,669

175

2,780

145

13

265

8,200

4,680

8,520

2,500

1,075

590

390

1,740

6,150

1,430

4,550

3,750

78

203

1,370

3,000

4,130

170

415

435

3,150

990

80

490

14

1,340

62,818

Updated from the June 2007 “Acreage” report. 1
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 5 NASS, USDA

Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State

and United States, 2007 1

State

Canola

Sunflower

Oil Non-Oil All

Planted Harvested Planted Harvested Planted Harvested Planted Harvested

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CO

KS

MN

MT

NE

ND

SD

TX

Oth

 Sts 2

US

32.0

8.0

1,080.0

63.0

1,183.0

30.0

7.7

1,050.0

56.3

1,144.0

105

155

86

35

910

395

16

59

1,761

95

150

82

32

880

369

15

56

1,679

15

15

41

14

160

35

26

8

314

13

14

38

13

150

31

25

7

291

120

170

127

49

1,070

430

42

67

2,075

108

164

120

45

1,030

400

40

63

1,970

Updated from the June 2007 “Acreage” report. 1

Other States for Canola include CO, ID, KS, MI, OK, OR, and WA. 2

Other States for Sunflower include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 6 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

CA

CO

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

165

180

110

860

161

225

11,150

5,380

12,350

3,000

1,040

290

425

1,960

6,850

325

2,630

7,750

64

45

480

740

1,400

2,960

220

960

290

3,220

500

1,450

345

75

2,800

248

70,648

255

590

190

1,050

175

470

13,000

6,350

13,950

3,600

1,360

730

470

2,360

7,850

940

3,250

9,000

78

50

540

1,030

2,250

3,610

270

970

375

4,450

810

1,900

400

125

3,300

323

86,071

72.0

146.0

165.0

156.0

145.0

112.0

163.0

157.0

166.0

115.0

146.0

140.0

142.0

147.0

161.0

110.0

138.0

152.0

129.0

185.0

129.0

132.0

111.0

159.0

105.0

122.0

110.0

97.0

125.0

121.0

120.0

210.0

143.0

145.2

149.1

65.0

155.0

175.0

150.0

80.0

120.0

180.0

160.0

182.0

135.0

120.0

160.0

85.0

113.0

158.0

130.0

140.0

174.0

105.0

185.0

123.0

89.0

127.0

150.0

138.0

110.0

100.0

124.0

100.0

144.0

80.0

210.0

148.0

143.6

155.8

73.0

160.0

175.0

150.0

85.0

118.0

178.0

158.0

180.0

137.0

124.0

170.0

85.0

117.0

156.0

130.0

140.0

168.0

105.0

190.0

123.0

89.0

127.0

150.0

138.0

115.0

95.0

128.0

106.0

144.0

80.0

210.0

145.0

144.3

154.7

11,880

26,280

18,150

134,160

23,345

25,200

1,817,450

844,660

2,050,100

345,000

151,840

40,600

60,350

288,120

1,102,850

35,750

362,940

1,178,000

8,256

8,325

61,920

97,680

155,400

470,640

23,100

117,120

31,900

312,340

62,500

175,450

41,400

15,750

400,400

36,012

10,534,868

18,615

94,400

33,250

157,500

14,875

55,460

2,314,000

1,003,300

2,511,000

493,200

168,640

124,100

39,950

276,120

1,224,600

122,200

455,000

1,512,000

8,190

9,500

66,420

91,670

285,750

541,500

37,260

111,550

35,625

569,600

85,860

273,600

32,000

26,250

478,500

46,617

13,318,102

Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the “Crop 1

Production 2007 Summary.”
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 7 NASS, USDA

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AR

CO

IL

KS

LA

MO

NE

NM

OK

SD

TX

Oth

 Sts 1

US

60

130

72

2,500

87

95

240

60

200

80

1,300

113

4,937

215

150

78

2,600

245

105

240

50

210

150

2,400

259

6,702

85.0

26.0

89.0

58.0

96.0

85.0

80.0

35.0

34.0

36.0

48.0

69.4

56.2

87.0

44.0

90.0

79.0

96.0

98.0

98.0

37.0

53.0

50.0

69.0

75.5

73.9

93.0

44.0

86.0

79.0

96.0

103.0

98.0

37.0

53.0

50.0

69.0

72.7

74.8

5,100

3,380

6,408

145,000

8,352

8,075

19,200

2,100

6,800

2,880

62,400

7,843

277,538

19,995

6,600

6,708

205,400

23,520

10,815

23,520

1,850

11,130

7,500

165,600

18,819

501,457

Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, KY, MS, NC, PA, SC, and TN. Individual State level estimates will be published in the 1

“Crop Production 2007 Summary.”
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 8 NASS, USDA

Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO

TX

US

1,400

523

345

189

214

150

2,821

1,325

520

373

189

178

146

2,731

6,850

7,660

5,820

7,000

6,400

7,170

6,868

6,950

8,200

6,000

7,100

6,800

6,300

7,024

7,200

8,300

6,050

7,350

6,800

6,800

7,215

95,917

40,040

20,093

13,230

13,696

10,760

193,736

95,400

43,160

22,567

13,892

12,104

9,928

197,051

Rice: Production by Class, United States,

2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All 1

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

2005

2006

2007 2

177,527

146,214

142,004

42,408

43,802

50,481

3,300

3,720

4,566

223,235

193,736

197,051

Sweet rice production included with short grain. 1

The 2007 rice production by class forecasts are based on class harvested acreage estimates and the 5-year average class yield 2

compared to the all rice yield.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 9 NASS, USDA

Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

150

3,070

177

140

10,050

5,680

10,100

3,080

1,370

840

465

1,990

7,250

1,650

5,110

5,010

86

198

1,360

3,870

4,620

215

425

390

3,850

1,130

155

510

1,640

21

74,602

175

2,780

145

265

8,200

4,680

8,520

2,500

1,075

590

390

1,740

6,150

1,430

4,550

3,750

78

203

1,370

3,000

4,130

170

415

435

3,150

990

80

490

1,340

27

62,818

20.0

35.0

31.0

25.0

48.0

50.0

50.5

32.0

44.0

35.0

34.0

45.0

44.0

26.0

38.0

50.0

35.0

46.0

32.0

31.0

47.0

17.0

40.0

29.0

34.0

39.0

24.0

31.0

44.0

38.4

42.7

20.0

38.0

24.0

29.0

46.0

43.0

51.0

34.0

30.0

39.0

25.0

33.0

42.0

39.0

37.0

52.0

27.0

37.0

22.0

35.0

44.0

24.0

39.0

22.0

40.0

24.0

32.0

27.0

42.0

34.5

41.4

22.0

38.0

22.0

30.0

44.0

43.0

52.0

34.0

28.0

40.0

25.0

33.0

42.0

41.0

37.0

52.0

26.0

38.0

20.0

36.0

46.0

24.0

39.0

19.0

41.0

23.0

32.0

25.0

41.0

32.0

41.4

3,000

107,450

5,487

3,500

482,400

284,000

510,050

98,560

60,280

29,400

15,810

89,550

319,000

42,900

194,180

250,500

3,010

9,108

43,520

119,970

217,140

3,655

17,000

11,310

130,900

44,070

3,720

15,810

72,160

807

3,188,247

3,850

105,640

3,190

7,950

360,800

201,240

443,040

85,000

30,100

23,600

9,750

57,420

258,300

58,630

168,350

195,000

2,028

7,714

27,400

108,000

189,980

4,080

16,185

8,265

129,150

22,770

2,560

12,250

54,940

864

2,598,046

Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the “Crop Production 2007 Summary.” 1
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 10 NASS, USDA

Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

Varietal

Type &

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 1 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oil

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts 2

 US

Non-Oil

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts 2

 US

All

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts 2

 US

75

130

53

31

740

410

13

62

1,514

18

9

32

18

120

38

11

10

256

93

139

85

49

860

448

24

72

1,770

95

150

82

32

880

369

15

56

1,679

13

14

38

13

150

31

25

7

291

108

164

120

45

1,030

400

40

63

1,970

1,100

1,200

1,850

1,200

1,260

970

1,050

1,137

1,181

1,450

1,340

1,600

1,400

1,520

1,050

700

1,109

1,389

1,168

1,209

1,756

1,273

1,296

977

890

1,133

1,211

1,336

1,696

1,584

1,200

1,462

1,500

1,075

1,211

1,468

181,250

377,300

115,200

81,200

1,424,850

793,650

76,800

127,385

3,177,635

81,000

74,800

68,750

60,800

327,800

83,300

119,600

24,670

840,720

262,250

452,100

183,950

142,000

1,752,650

876,950

196,400

152,055

4,018,355

82,500

156,000

98,050

37,200

932,400

397,700

13,650

70,466

1,787,966

26,100

12,060

51,200

25,200

182,400

39,900

7,700

11,087

355,647

108,600

168,060

149,250

62,400

1,114,800

437,600

21,350

81,553

2,143,613

144,300

278,100

190,100

54,000

1,506,200

600,000

43,000

76,285

2,891,985

2007 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the “Crop Production 2007 Summary.” 1

Other States include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY. 2
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 11 NASS, USDA

Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and

United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

AL

FL

GA

MS

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

225.0

160.0

755.0

15.0

19.0

97.0

35.0

63.0

265.0

23.0

1,657.0

165.0

130.0

580.0

17.0

12.0

85.0

23.0

59.0

155.0

17.0

1,243.0

160.0

125.0

530.0

19.0

10.0

93.0

17.0

59.0

190.0

22.0

1,225.0

223.0

152.0

750.0

14.0

19.0

96.0

33.0

60.0

260.0

22.0

1,629.0

163.0

120.0

575.0

16.0

12.0

84.0

22.0

56.0

145.0

17.0

1,210.0

157.0

115.0

520.0

18.0

10.0

92.0

16.0

56.0

185.0

21.0

1,190.0

State

Yield Production

2005 2006 1

2007

2005 2006 2007 1

Sep 1 Oct 1

Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

AL

FL

GA

MS

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

2,750

2,700

2,840

3,200

3,500

3,000

3,270

2,800

3,750

3,000

2,989

2,500

2,500

2,780

2,900

3,600

3,200

2,850

3,000

3,550

3,200

2,863

2,200

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,500

2,300

3,200

2,800

3,300

2,400

2,803

2,400

2,700

2,950

3,200

3,500

2,400

3,200

2,900

3,400

2,000

2,873

613,250

410,400

2,130,000

44,800

66,500

288,000

107,910

168,000

975,000

66,000

4,869,860

407,500

300,000

1,598,500

46,400

43,200

268,800

62,700

168,000

514,750

54,400

3,464,250

376,800

310,500

1,534,000

57,600

35,000

220,800

51,200

162,400

629,000

42,000

3,419,300

Revised. 1

Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State

and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

MN

MT

ND

Oth Sts 1

US

27.0

9.8

935.0

49.2

1,021.0

30.0

7.7

1,050.0

56.3

1,144.0

1,330

1,120

1,370

1,352

1,366

1,330

1,600

1,310

1,308

1,312

31,160

21,285

1,461,600

66,940

1,580,985

35,910

10,976

1,280,950

66,496

1,394,332

39,900

12,320

1,375,500

73,621

1,501,341

For 2005, Other States include ID, MI, OK, OR, and WA. For 2006 and 2007, Other States include CO, ID, KS, MI, OK, OR, 1

and WA.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 12 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 1,000 Bales 2 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 US

560.0

188.0

1,160.0

283.0

101.0

1,370.0

110.0

630.0

1,220.0

496.0

48.0

865.0

180.0

298.0

695.0

4,100.0

104.0

12,408.0

7.0

274.0

12.5

30.0

323.5

560.0

195.0

1,160.0

557.0

101.0

1,370.0

110.0

630.0

1,220.0

496.0

60.5

865.0

180.0

298.0

695.0

4,130.0

104.0

12,731.5

390.0

178.0

850.0

194.0

82.0

1,010.0

45.0

325.0

655.0

389.0

44.0

495.0

165.0

178.0

495.0

4,700.0

59.0

10,254.0

3.0

257.0

5.0

24.0

289.0

390.0

181.0

850.0

451.0

82.0

1,010.0

45.0

325.0

655.0

389.0

49.0

495.0

165.0

178.0

495.0

4,724.0

59.0

10,543.0

579

1,420

1,045

1,321

789

818

511

946

829

953

930

713

541

697

945

679

717

806

919

1,204

768

720

1,136

579

1,402

1,045

1,263

789

818

511

946

829

953

897

713

541

697

945

679

717

814

578

1,375

1,045

1,410

644

808

480

960

953

925

1,113

611

698

485

815

715

586

797

880

1,382

720

800

1,317

578

1,367

1,045

1,394

644

808

480

960

953

925

1,073

611

698

485

815

715

586

811

492

1,429

1,045

1,410

644

775

533

990

953

962

1,047

611

785

378

756

766

586

813

880

1,345

768

840

1,288

492

1,420

1,045

1,373

644

775

533

990

953

962

1,019

611

785

378

756

766

586

826

675.0

556.0

2,525.0

779.0

166.0

2,334.0

117.0

1,241.0

2,107.0

985.0

93.0

1,285.0

203.0

433.0

1,368.0

5,800.0

155.4

20,822.4

13.4

687.0

20.0

45.0

765.4

675.0

569.4

2,525.0

1,466.0

166.0

2,334.0

117.0

1,241.0

2,107.0

985.0

113.0

1,285.0

203.0

433.0

1,368.0

5,845.0

155.4

21,587.8

400.0

530.0

1,850.0

570.0

110.0

1,630.0

50.0

670.0

1,300.0

780.0

96.0

630.0

270.0

140.0

780.0

7,500.0

72.0

17,378.0

5.5

720.0

8.0

42.0

775.5

400.0

535.5

1,850.0

1,290.0

110.0

1,630.0

50.0

670.0

1,300.0

780.0

104.0

630.0

270.0

140.0

780.0

7,542.0

72.0

18,153.5

Production ginned and to be ginned. 1

480-lb. net weight bale. 2
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 13 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Production

2005 2006 2007 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 8,172.1 7,347.9 6,287.0

Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. 1
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 14 NASS, USDA

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AZ

CA

CO

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

MI

MN

MO

MT

NE

NV

NM

NY

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SD

TX

UT

VA

WA

WI

WY

Oth

 Sts 1

US

250

1,050

780

1,180

440

360

1,180

950

280

830

1,350

390

1,550

1,250

270

220

370

1,450

470

380

430

500

1,800

150

560

110

440

1,650

500

244

21,384

250

950

800

1,200

380

300

1,080

900

270

830

1,300

400

1,650

1,200

265

260

400

1,550

430

390

400

550

2,100

120

565

110

430

1,600

550

221

21,451

8.30

6.80

3.80

4.30

4.10

4.10

3.90

3.80

3.70

3.60

3.30

2.90

2.10

3.30

5.10

5.10

2.10

1.20

3.50

2.10

4.40

3.00

1.60

4.50

4.00

3.60

4.90

2.80

2.80

2.92

3.35

8.30

7.40

4.00

4.20

3.50

2.70

3.80

3.90

1.60

2.40

3.00

2.80

2.10

3.80

4.90

5.40

2.20

2.00

2.70

3.00

4.60

2.70

2.80

6.20

4.10

2.50

5.20

2.40

2.80

2.75

3.37

2,184

7,176

2,960

4,788

1,400

1,292

5,125

3,400

832

2,790

4,725

1,215

3,850

4,625

1,248

1,224

945

3,300

1,836

1,184

1,760

1,326

5,160

810

2,268

396

2,340

3,720

1,560

710

76,149

2,075

7,140

2,964

5,074

1,804

1,476

4,602

3,610

1,036

2,988

4,455

1,131

3,255

4,125

1,377

1,122

777

1,740

1,645

798

1,892

1,500

2,880

675

2,240

396

2,156

4,620

1,400

713

71,666

2,075

7,030

3,200

5,040

1,330

810

4,104

3,510

432

1,992

3,900

1,120

3,465

4,560

1,299

1,404

880

3,100

1,161

1,170

1,840

1,485

5,880

744

2,317

275

2,236

3,840

1,540

608

72,347

Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. Individual State level estimates will be 1

published in the “Crop Production 2007 Summary.”
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 15 NASS, USDA

All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AR

CA

CO

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

Oth

 Sts 1

US

720

1,450

530

750

650

340

320

290

320

2,100

2,200

390

310

720

780

3,750

710

1,550

1,150

680

1,270

740

2,800

620

1,250

1,300

1,800

5,000

1,130

330

555

490

550

1,878

39,423

800

1,500

620

750

600

290

300

340

290

2,150

2,200

400

230

800

750

3,800

900

1,550

1,050

690

1,450

700

2,900

600

1,150

1,500

1,860

5,200

1,170

350

570

450

550

1,878

40,338

2.00

1.70

3.60

1.90

1.80

1.90

2.20

2.50

2.20

1.40

2.40

2.50

2.20

1.70

2.00

1.55

1.50

1.00

1.75

2.40

1.10

2.40

1.00

2.20

2.90

1.00

2.30

1.60

2.20

2.90

1.70

1.60

1.30

2.02

1.78

1.90

2.00

3.60

2.00

1.70

1.60

2.00

1.80

2.00

1.90

1.50

2.90

1.90

1.50

2.00

1.60

1.50

1.40

1.80

1.30

1.40

1.80

2.00

1.60

1.70

1.50

1.30

2.70

1.80

3.00

1.40

1.40

1.50

2.08

1.87

1,971

2,193

2,030

1,125

1,650

594

759

775

735

3,280

4,945

805

500

1,330

2,117

5,503

2,000

2,320

1,680

1,632

2,346

1,794

3,900

1,380

2,071

2,400

4,255

8,330

3,146

870

972

750

756

3,954

74,868

1,440

2,465

1,908

1,425

1,170

646

704

725

704

2,940

5,280

975

682

1,224

1,560

5,813

1,065

1,550

2,013

1,632

1,397

1,776

2,800

1,364

3,625

1,300

4,140

8,000

2,486

957

944

784

715

3,791

70,000

1,520

3,000

2,232

1,500

1,020

464

600

612

580

4,085

3,300

1,160

437

1,200

1,500

6,080

1,350

2,170

1,890

897

2,030

1,260

5,800

960

1,955

2,250

2,418

14,040

2,106

1,050

798

630

825

3,898

75,617

Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, and VT. Individual State level estimates 1

will be published in the “Crop Production 2007 Summary.”
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 16 NASS, USDA

Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 1

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

CA

CO

ID

MI

MN

MT

NE

ND

OR

WA

WY

US

43.1

38.0

187.0

154.0

477.0

48.5

57.8

243.0

13.1

2.0

40.1

1,303.6

39.1

29.3

167.0

149.0

475.0

47.0

44.5

247.0

11.0

2.0

30.5

1,241.4

36.1

23.4

31.7

23.2

24.9

27.0

23.3

26.0

30.1

37.0

19.9

26.1

35.4

25.4

30.5

21.5

22.4

26.0

23.3

23.0

30.6

38.0

22.0

24.2

38.0

25.4

30.5

21.5

22.8

26.0

23.3

23.0

30.6

38.0

22.0

24.5

1,556

889

5,928

3,573

11,877

1,310

1,347

6,318

394

74

798

34,064

1,486

744

5,094

3,204

10,830

1,222

1,037

5,681

337

76

671

30,382

Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in 1

central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1 1

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

FL

HI

LA

TX

US

400.0

22.4

435.0

40.7

898.1

396.0

22.5

420.0

45.0

883.5

35.9

75.0

27.3

41.2

32.9

36.9

79.0

29.0

40.9

34.4

36.9

79.0

29.0

40.9

34.4

14,346

1,681

11,876

1,677

29,580

14,612

1,778

12,180

1,841

30,411

Net tons. 1
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 17 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007 2

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT 3

NE

NM 3

NY

ND

OR 3

SD

TX

UT 3

WA

WI 3

WY

US

67.0

70.0

105.0

11.0

225.0

145.0

19.5

140.0

8.2

19.0

670.0

10.0

21.5

20.0

3.0

61.0

5.6

29.0

1,629.8

60.0

50.0

90.0

6.5

200.0

150.0

18.0

110.0

7.2

17.0

690.0

8.0

13.0

15.0

1.6

60.0

6.0

25.0

1,527.3

65.0

60.0

103.0

10.0

215.0

135.0

18.6

124.0

8.2

18.0

640.0

9.8

19.0

18.0

0.5

60.5

5.5

27.5

1,537.6

58.0

45.0

88.0

6.0

195.0

140.0

17.0

105.0

7.2

16.3

660.0

7.9

12.1

14.0

1.6

59.5

5.9

24.0

1,462.5

Yield Production 4 4

2006 2007 2006 2007

Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT 3

NE

NM 3

NY

ND

OR 3

SD

TX

UT 3

WA

WI 3

WY

US

1,860

1,900

1,850

2,100

1,900

1,650

1,640

2,200

2,400

1,330

1,200

1,940

1,180

1,320

350

1,600

1,960

2,150

1,577

2,200

1,600

1,750

2,100

1,450

1,800

1,800

2,300

2,400

1,200

1,650

1,750

2,000

1,500

300

1,700

1,950

2,300

1,727

1,209

1,140

1,906

210

4,085

2,228

305

2,728

197

239

7,680

190

224

238

2

968

108

590

24,247

1,276

720

1,540

126

2,828

2,520

306

2,415

173

196

10,890

138

242

210

5

1,012

115

552

25,264

Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 1

Updated from the August “Crop Production” report. 2

Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

 3

Cleaned basis. 4
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 18 NASS, USDA

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield,

and Production by State and United States, 2006-2007

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

FL 1

US

12.0

5.7

17.7

11.5

11.5

12.0

5.5

17.5

11.5

11.5

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

FL 1

US

260

250

257

215

215

3,120

1,375

4,495

2,473

2,473

Winter potatoes combined with spring potatoes in 2007. 1

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and

United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

Sep 1 Oct 1

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

CT

FL 1

GA

KY

MA

MO 2

NC

OH

PA

SC

TN

VA

US

2,500

1,100

17,000

83,000

1,150

1,500

158,800

3,500

7,900

23,000

19,800

19,650

338,900

2,800

20,000

87,500

1,220

1,700

169,000

3,300

7,900

22,000

19,050

20,600

355,070

1,597

2,600

1,770

2,250

1,583

2,250

2,081

2,000

2,056

2,100

2,482

2,374

2,144

1,775

2,100

2,018

1,746

2,100

1,991

1,800

2,166

2,250

2,056

1,989

2,023

1,661

2,000

1,970

1,664

2,100

1,991

1,750

2,154

2,250

1,990

1,979

2,000

3,992

2,860

30,090

186,780

1,820

3,375

330,410

7,000

16,240

48,300

49,135

46,642

726,644

4,650

40,000

172,350

2,030

3,570

336,400

5,775

17,020

49,500

37,910

40,760

709,965

Estimates discontinued in 2007. 1

Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

 2
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 19 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,

State, and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

Class, Type, and State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured

 FL 1

 GA

 NC

 SC

 VA

 US

Class 2, Fire-cured

 KY

 TN

 VA

 US

Class 3, Air-cured

 Light Air-cured

 Burley

 KY

 MO 2

 NC

 OH

 PA

 TN

 VA

 US

 Southern MD Belt

 PA

 Total Light Air-cured

 Dark Air-cured

 KY

 TN

 US

Class 4, Cigar Filler

 PA Seedleaf

 PA

Class 5, Cigar Filler

 CT Valley Binder

 CT

 MA

 US

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper

 CT Valley Shade-grown

 CT

 MA

 US

All Cigar Types

All Tobacco

1,100

17,000

155,000

23,000

17,000

213,100

6,200

5,300

350

11,850

73,000

1,500

3,800

3,500

5,500

14,000

2,300

103,600

1,100

104,700

3,800

500

4,300

1,300

1,650

950

2,600

850

200

1,050

4,950

338,900

20,000

165,000

22,000

18,000

225,000

6,500

6,400

400

13,300

77,000

1,700

4,000

3,300

5,000

12,000

2,200

105,200

1,100

106,300

4,000

650

4,650

1,800

1,800

1,000

2,800

1,000

220

1,220

5,820

355,070

2,600

1,770

2,090

2,100

2,430

2,095

3,500

3,200

2,090

3,324

2,100

2,250

1,700

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,000

2,095

1,900

2,093

3,100

2,750

3,059

2,000

1,760

1,610

1,705

1,280

1,450

1,312

1,699

2,144

2,000

2,000

2,250

2,000

2,024

3,000

2,700

2,000

2,826

1,850

2,100

1,600

1,750

2,150

1,600

1,800

1,826

2,100

1,829

2,600

2,200

2,544

2,200

1,750

1,700

1,732

1,500

1,500

1,500

1,828

2,000

2,860

30,090

323,950

48,300

41,310

446,510

21,700

16,960

732

39,392

153,300

3,375

6,460

7,000

11,550

30,800

4,600

217,085

2,090

219,175

11,780

1,375

13,155

2,600

2,904

1,530

4,434

1,088

290

1,378

8,412

726,644

40,000

330,000

49,500

36,000

455,500

19,500

17,280

800

37,580

142,450

3,570

6,400

5,775

10,750

19,200

3,960

192,105

2,310

194,415

10,400

1,430

11,830

3,960

3,150

1,700

4,850

1,500

330

1,830

10,640

709,965

Estimates discontinued in 2007. 1

Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

 2
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 20 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2005-06, 2006-07 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

1,000 Boxes 1,000 Boxes 1,000 Boxes 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 2 2 2

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA

 FL 4

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples 4

 FL

Grapefruit

 White

 FL

 Colored

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 5

 CA 5

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

250

47,000

75,000

1,400

123,650

200

14,000

72,700

200

87,100

450

61,000

147,700

1,600

210,750

700

6,500

12,800

100

6,000

19,300

5,200

30,600

550

3,600

5,500

9,650

3,800

22,000

25,800

1,400

200

34,000

65,600

1,600

101,400

100

11,000

63,400

380

74,880

300

45,000

129,000

1,980

176,280

9,300

17,900

100

4,000

27,200

7,100

38,400

300

2,900

4,600

7,800

2,500

16,000

18,500

1,250

200

43,000

81,000

1,450

125,650

100

15,000

87,000

350

102,450

300

58,000

168,000

1,800

228,100

9,000

16,000

200

4,500

25,000

6,800

36,500

400

4,700

5,100

10,200

1,500

16,500

18,000

1,300

9

1,763

3,375

60

5,207

8

525

3,272

9

3,814

17

2,288

6,647

69

9,021

32

276

544

3

201

820

208

1,232

21

135

261

417

144

836

980

63

8

1,275

2,952

68

4,303

4

413

2,853

16

3,286

12

1,688

5,805

84

7,589

395

761

3

134

1,156

284

1,577

11

109

219

339

95

608

703

56

8

1,613

3,645

62

5,328

4

563

3,915

15

4,497

12

2,176

7,560

77

9,825

383

680

7

151

1,063

272

1,493

15

176

242

433

57

627

684

59

The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 1

Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; 2

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.

Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

 3

quantities of tangerines in TX.

Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 4

Includes tangelos and tangors. 5
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 21 NASS, USDA

Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,

2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 1

State

Total Production

2005 2006 2007

Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds

AZ 2

CA 2

CO 2

CT 2

GA 2

ID 2

IL 2

IN 2

IA 2

KY 2

ME 2

MD 2

MA 2

MI

MN 2

MO 2

NH 2

NJ 2

NY

NC

OH 2

OR 2

PA

RI 2

SC 2

TN 2

UT 2

VT 2

VA

WA

WV

WI 2

US

22.2

355.0

31.0

15.5

14.0

70.0

49.0

50.0

2.1

5.5

31.0

41.0

28.5

760.0

22.0

49.0

21.0

45.0

1,045.0

130.0

99.0

145.0

500.0

1.6

4.0

8.5

38.0

33.0

250.0

5,700.0

87.0

52.0

9,704.9

30.1

355.0

15.0

17.5

13.0

60.0

52.5

55.0

6.7

6.9

23.5

34.0

32.0

850.0

23.0

53.0

28.5

45.0

1,250.0

173.0

102.0

150.0

470.0

2.0

3.0

10.0

10.0

36.0

220.0

5,650.0

90.0

65.0

9,931.7

23.0

340.0

15.0

20.5

3.0

45.0

10.0

30.0

1.8

0.8

40.0

33.0

36.5

780.0

24.0

5.0

27.0

42.0

1,260.0

50.0

55.0

145.0

455.0

2.5

0.5

0.1

25.0

33.0

210.0

5,400.0

80.0

62.0

9,254.7

In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 1

Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

 2
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 22 NASS, USDA

Pecans: Utilized Production by Variety, State, and United States,

2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

Crop and State

Utilized Production

2005 2006 2007

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TX

 US

Native & Seedling

 AL

 AR

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TX

 US

All Pecans

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TX

 US

3,200

22,000

1,100

3,950

300

72,000

1,000

800

200

65,000

1,650

6,000

1,500

50,000

228,700

800

1,200

700

8,000

3,200

4,000

200

2,400

350

15,000

700

15,000

51,550

4,000

22,000

2,300

3,950

1,000

80,000

3,200

5,000

1,000

2,600

65,000

2,000

21,000

2,200

65,000

280,250

5,400

14,000

1,150

3,400

200

36,000

3,500

2,000

160

46,000

420

5,000

900

33,000

151,130

600

1,050

300

6,000

2,000

17,500

500

940

80

12,000

200

14,000

55,170

6,000

14,000

2,200

3,400

500

42,000

2,000

21,000

2,500

1,100

46,000

500

17,000

1,100

47,000

206,300

9,000

23,000

850

4,200

900

90,000

3,000

2,400

1

71,000

510

6,000

1,500

48,000

260,361

2,000

750

100

10,000

200

9,000

600

4

90

14,000

500

22,000

59,244

11,000

23,000

1,600

4,200

1,000

100,000

200

12,000

3,000

5

71,000

600

20,000

2,000

70,000

319,605

Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 1
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 23 NASS, USDA

Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007

State

Total Production

2005 2006 2007

Tons Tons Tons

 AZ 1

 AR 1

 CA

 All Types

 Wine

 Table 2

 Raisin 2

 GA 1

 MI

 MO 1

 NY

 NC 1

 OH 1

 OR 1

 PA

 TX 1

 VA 1

 WA

 All Types

 Wine

 Juice

 US

1,000

1,900

6,963,000

3,806,000

872,000

2,285,000

3,500

102,700

3,900

178,000

3,900

8,500

27,000

90,000

9,700

5,600

415,000

110,000

305,000

7,813,700

900

2,300

5,766,000

3,176,000

729,000

1,861,000

2,900

32,500

4,170

155,000

4,580

3,100

34,400

82,000

7,100

6,200

316,000

120,000

196,000

6,417,150

1,100

250

6,180,000

3,200,000

780,000

2,200,000

3,100

100,000

2,800

176,000

3,500

8,000

35,000

80,000

9,500

6,200

385,000

125,000

260,000

6,990,450

Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

 1

Fresh basis. 2

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2006 2007

2006 2007 2006 2007

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jul

Aug

1,755

2,160

1,735

2,135

1,510

1,330

810

1,395

1,705

2,215

2,385

2,405

Utilized fresh production. 1

Prunes (Dried Plums): Total Production, California,

2005-2006 and Forecasted 2007 1

Crop

Total Production

2005 2006 2007

Tons Tons Tons

Prunes (Dried Basis) 97,000 180,000 90,000

Survey of prune growers conducted from August 27 through September 21. 1
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 24 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

3,452.0

78,327.0

4,168.0

580.0

2,838.0

1,396.0

6,522.0

57,344.0

40,575.0

1,870.0

14,899.0

1,044.0

813.0

40.5

1,243.0

1.4

189.0

75,522.0

1,950.0

15,274.0

14,948.0

326.0

1,366.2

46.0

1,629.8

925.5

429.0

1,140.1

17.7

70.7

58.0

993.7

95.2

4,020.0

93,616.0

3,760.0

610.0

2,748.0

1,376.0

7,704.0

60,433.0

44,987.0

2,149.0

13,297.0

1,183.0

465.0

57.5

1,225.0

1.4

170.0

63,669.0

2,075.0

10,847.0

10,554.0

293.0

1,266.0

27.0

1,527.3

880.5

305.0

1,147.5

11.5

73.0

53.8

1,009.2

96.5

2,951.0

70,648.0

6,477.0

60,807.0

21,384.0

39,423.0

1,566.0

475.0

2,821.0

274.0

4,937.0

347.0

46,810.0

31,117.0

1,815.0

13,878.0

1,021.0

767.0

39.2

1,210.0

1.0

179.0

74,602.0

1,770.0

12,731.5

12,408.0

323.5

1,303.6

898.1

338.9

22.5

1,537.6

884.1

407.0

6.3

0.1

29.4

79.2

1,121.9

17.5

67.5

53.9

983.0

18.5

86.8

0.4

3,508.0

86,071.0

61,789.0

21,451.0

40,338.0

1,505.0

2,731.0

289.0

6,702.0

51,011.0

35,952.0

2,112.0

12,947.0

1,144.0

453.0

54.8

1,190.0

1.2

162.5

62,818.0

1,970.0

10,543.0

10,254.0

289.0

1,241.4

883.5

355.1

17.0

1,462.5

834.3

293.0

0.1

31.0

1,128.4

11.5

70.4

50.3

996.2

93.2

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 1

full 2007 crop year.

Area planted for all purposes. 2

Acreage is not estimated. 3

Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. 4
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 25 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

“

Tons

“

“

“

Bu

“

Cwt

Bu

“

Tons

Bu

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Bu

Lbs

“

“

“

Bu

Lbs

Bales

“

“

Tons

“

Lbs

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

Cwt

Lbs

61.1

149.1

16.2

2.33

3.35

1.78

59.8

21.5

6,868

26.3

56.2

13.4

38.7

41.7

29.5

33.2

1,366

14.4

720

2,863

1,100

1,069

42.7

1,211

814

806

1,136

26.1

32.9

2,144

1,151

1,577

1,493

797

1,170

43,000

1,964

92

393

257

293

337

406

110

187

60.4

154.7

2.39

3.37

1.87

60.9

7,215

27.4

74.8

40.5

42.2

33.9

37.0

1,312

2,873

41.4

1,468

826

813

1,288

24.5

34.4

2,000

1,727

35,000

1,952

215

294

328

180,165

10,534,868

104,849

141,666

71,666

70,000

93,638

10,195

193,736

7,193

277,538

4,642

1,812,036

1,298,081

53,475

460,480

1,394,332

7,347.9

11,019

28,220

3,464,250

1,100

191,405

3,188,247

2,143,613

21,587.8

20,822.4

765.4

34,064

29,580

726,644

259

24,247

13,203

3,244

590

7,400

4,300

57,671.8

7,248

441,348

4,495

19,766

18,166

398,921

2,038

16,248

4,500

211,825

13,318,102

147,964

72,347

75,617

91,599

197,051

7,914

501,457

2,066,722

1,515,989

71,686

479,047

1,501,341

6,287.0

3,419,300

2,598,046

2,891,985

18,153.5

17,378.0

775.5

30,382

30,411

709,965

25,264

2,800

60,570.7

2,473

20,668

16,504

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 1

full 2007 crop year.

Yield in pounds. 2

Yield is not estimated. 3
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 26 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Production

2006 2007 2008

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell)

 Pecans (in-shell)

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)

 Maple Syrup

Tons

“

“

“

“

“

1,000 Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

“

Lbs

Tons

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

Gals

1,232

980

9,021

63

417

32

9,931.7

44.5

20,000.0

6,417.2

23.5

28,700.0

1,010.1

842.0

180.0

21.5

1,115,000

43.0

206,300

346.0

1,449

1,577

703

7,589

56

339

9,254.7

86.6

6,990.5

110.0

1,026.9

878.1

90.0

13.7

1,330,000

33.0

319,605

320.0

1,258

1,493

684

9,825

59

433

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 1

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season.

Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 2

Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. 3
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 27 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 5

1,396,990

31,698,150

1,686,750

234,720

1,148,510

564,950

2,639,390

23,206,540

16,420,300

756,770

6,029,480

422,500

329,010

16,390

503,030

570

76,490

30,563,000

789,150

6,181,240

6,049,310

131,930

552,890

18,620

659,560

374,540

173,610

461,390

7,160

28,610

23,470

402,140

38,530

1,626,850

37,885,460

1,521,630

246,860

1,112,090

556,850

3,117,730

24,456,630

18,205,790

869,680

5,381,160

478,750

188,180

23,270

495,750

570

68,800

25,766,210

839,730

4,389,670

4,271,100

118,570

512,340

10,930

618,080

356,330

123,430

464,380

4,650

29,540

21,770

408,410

39,050

1,194,240

28,590,540

2,621,180

24,607,980

8,653,890

15,954,090

633,740

192,230

1,141,630

110,890

1,997,950

140,430

18,943,540

12,592,740

734,510

5,616,290

413,190

310,400

15,860

489,670

400

72,440

30,190,680

716,300

5,152,310

5,021,390

130,920

527,550

363,450

137,150

9,110

622,250

357,790

164,710

2,550

40

11,880

32,050

454,020

7,080

27,320

21,810

397,810

7,490

35,130

150

1,419,650

34,832,070

25,005,390

8,681,010

16,324,390

609,060

1,105,210

116,960

2,712,230

20,643,640

14,549,410

854,710

5,239,520

462,970

183,320

22,180

481,580

490

65,760

25,421,820

797,240

4,266,650

4,149,690

116,960

502,380

357,540

143,690

6,880

591,860

337,630

118,570

30

12,560

456,650

4,650

28,490

20,360

403,150

37,720

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 1

full 2007 crop year.

Area planted for all purposes. 2

Total may not add due to rounding. 3

Acreage is not estimated. 4

Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. 5
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 28 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.28

9.36

36.29

5.22

7.51

3.98

2.14

1.20

7.70

1.65

3.53

29.99

2.60

2.81

1.98

2.23

1.53

0.90

0.81

3.21

1.23

1.20

2.87

1.36

0.91

0.90

1.27

58.58

73.83

2.40

1.29

1.77

1.67

0.89

1.32

48.20

2.20

0.10

44.09

28.79

32.82

37.78

45.49

0.12

20.98

3.25

9.71

5.37

7.56

4.20

2.18

8.09

1.72

4.70

2.72

2.84

2.28

2.49

1.47

3.22

2.78

1.65

0.93

0.91

1.44

54.86

77.16

2.24

1.94

39.23

2.19

24.10

32.91

36.78

3,922,630

267,597,970

95,117,410

128,517,230

65,014,300

63,502,930

1,359,150

231,220

8,787,720

182,710

7,049,790

4,211,150

49,315,540

35,327,980

1,455,350

12,532,210

632,460

6,665,900

279,900

12,800

1,571,360

500

86,820

86,769,860

972,330

4,700,190

4,533,540

166,650

30,902,340

26,834,520

329,600

11,750

1,099,830

598,880

147,150

26,760

3,360

1,950

26,160

3,290

20,019,210

203,890

896,570

824,000

18,094,750

920

737,000

2,040

4,611,940

338,295,370

134,230,680

65,632,090

68,598,590

1,329,560

8,938,080

201,020

12,737,590

56,246,960

41,258,460

1,950,970

13,037,520

681,000

5,703,470

1,550,970

70,707,220

1,311,780

3,952,460

3,783,610

168,850

27,562,090

27,588,400

322,030

1,145,960

1,270

27,470

112,170

937,480

748,610

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 1

full 2007 crop year.

Production may not add due to rounding. 2

Yield is not estimated. 3
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 29 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2006 2007 2008

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell)

 Pecans (in-shell)

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)

 Maple Syrup

1,117,650

889,040

8,183,710

57,150

378,300

29,030

4,504,940

40,350

9,070

5,821,540

21,320

13,020

916,370

763,880

163,290

19,500

505,760

39,010

93,580

313,890

7,240

1,430,630

637,750

6,884,620

50,800

307,540

4,197,860

78,530

6,341,630

99,790

931,630

796,550

81,650

12,430

603,280

29,940

144,970

290,300

6,290

1,354,430

620,510

8,913,090

53,520

392,810

Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 1

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season.

Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 2

Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. 3
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 30 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 corn producing States

during 2007. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through

harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from

this survey.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,

Selected States, 2003-2007

State Month 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

KS 1

MN

MO 2

NE

 All

NE

 Irrigated

NE

 Non-Irrigated

OH

SD 2

WI

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

26,700

26,700

26,650

26,650

25,350

25,400

25,350

25,350

26,700

26,550

26,600

26,600

28,300

28,650

28,600

28,600

22,950

22,650

22,600

22,600

26,550

26,350

26,300

26,300

18,300

17,850

17,800

17,800

25,500

25,700

25,750

25,750

26,150

26,300

26,250

26,250

27,350

27,400

27,400

27,400

26,200

25,950

26,050

26,050

27,350

27,550

27,500

27,500

22,100

22,150

22,150

22,150

29,000

29,250

29,150

29,200

24,400

24,250

24,250

24,250

23,650

24,000

24,050

24,050

26,550

26,700

26,650

26,650

19,100

19,800

20,000

20,000

25,950

26,000

26,000

26,050

21,950

22,700

22,700

22,700

25,600

27,150

26,800

26,800

26,950

26,850

26,850

26,850

24,850

24,600

24,650

24,650

27,150

27,100

27,100

27,100

21,100

21,000

20,900

20,900

28,000

27,900

28,050

28,050

22,550

22,600

22,600

22,600

23,250

22,800

22,800

22,800

26,250

25,900

25,900

25,900

19,550

18,950

18,900

18,900

24,800

24,700

24,650

24,650

23,150

23,100

23,050

23,050

26,550

26,350

26,350

26,350

27,600

27,450

27,400

27,400

25,850

25,750

25,700

25,750

27,350

27,350

27,350

27,350

20,850

20,750

20,750

20,750

28,050

28,250

28,250

28,250

23,850

23,800

23,800

23,800

23,850

23,700

23,700

23,550

26,750

26,600

26,600

26,650

19,400

19,150

19,200

18,800

25,200

25,350

25,450

25,450

22,050

21,900

21,700

21,700

26,750

26,850

27,200

27,200

27,750

27,750

26,950

26,800

28,500

28,400

20,900

20,800

28,850

28,600

23,950

23,950

24,850

24,750

27,200

27,000

21,100

21,050

26,350

26,000

23,250

22,700

27,800

27,700

Field counts began in 2004.

 1

Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 1996. 2
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 31 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 11 soybean producing

States during 2007. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through

harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet,

Selected States, 2003-2007

State Month 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Number Number Number Number Number

AR 1 2

IL

IN

IA

KS 3

MN

MO

NE

ND 3

OH

SD 3

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

1,800

1,606

1,634

1,634

1,786

1,692

1,582

1,582

1,749

1,629

1,647

1,647

1,582

1,417

1,440

1,440

1,144

1,455

1,547

1,523

1,727

1,642

1,636

1,636

1,791

1,898

1,764

1,752

2,446

2,483

2,511

2,070

1,923

1,943

1,947

1,909

1,866

1,917

1,917

1,772

1,731

1,737

1,741

1,482

1,588

1,639

1,636

1,487

1,406

1,446

1,435

1,798

1,943

1,998

2,038

1,835

1,836

1,895

1,895

1,114

1,148

1,243

1,242

1,808

1,873

1,840

1,837

1,248

1,332

1,302

1,308

1,796

1,823

1,824

1,973

1,820

1,858

1,858

1,855

1,790

1,899

1,899

1,969

1,935

1,968

1,970

1,490

1,431

1,547

1,546

1,684

1,598

1,640

1,640

1,458

1,585

1,679

1,652

1,862

1,903

1,920

1,920

1,526

1,471

1,496

1,496

2,040

1,890

1,974

1,981

1,634

1,617

1,605

1,556

1,645

1,655

1,667

2,035

1,890

1,923

1,923

1,927

1,893

1,909

1,909

1,846

1,758

1,760

1,760

1,564

1,509

1,581

1,581

1,612

1,586

1,568

1,568

1,631

1,746

1,738

1,735

1,740

1,801

1,784

1,766

1,169

1,241

1,260

1,260

1,857

1,895

1,835

1,866

1,318

1,345

1,316

1,312

1,621

1,923

1,796

1,725

1,660

1,935

1,917

1,727

1,524

1,676

1,589

1,521

1,579

1,950

2,042

1,352

1,445

1,900

1,850

1,554

1,492

September data not available due to plant immaturity. 1

Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 2002. 2

Field counts began in 2004. 3
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 32 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States

during 2007. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields were visited monthly from August through harvest to

obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, Selected States, 2003-2007 1

State Month 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

CA

GA

LA

MS

NC

TX

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

798

755

744

744

744

973

945

893

893

893

559

646

643

665

665

681

778

775

775

775

837

824

811

808

808

628

630

632

632

632

465

431

429

435

435

864

771

753

754

754

954

952

945

948

948

646

690

686

687

687

635

707

691

691

691

808

789

780

780

780

758

719

732

733

733

639

672

593

624

624

811

728

733

733

733

993

926

1,002

1,011

1,011

667

689

767

767

767

746

768

775

775

775

818

729

724

722

722

799

693

721

721

721

620

516

586

585

585

859

814

849

824

824

911

869

926

933

933

648

675

774

790

790

760

781

786

785

785

700

699

695

695

695

637

641

671

671

671

530

477

533

544

544

790

839

1,084

1,115

616

570

796

808

819

745

527

601

602

538

Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially 1

opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls.
Crop Product

ionAgricultural Statistics Board

October 200733 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 34 NASS, USDA

September Weather Summary

Locally heavy rain and high-elevation snow showers arrived in the West, especially during the second half of

September, boosting topsoil moisture but having little effect on long-term drought. Prior to the arrival of cool,

showery weather, Northwestern winter wheat planting and other Western fieldwork advanced with few

interruptions. Meanwhile, wet weather lingered on the southern Great Plains, hampering early-season winter

wheat planting. Elsewhere across the Nation’s mid-section, wheat planting and summer crop harvesting

proceeded smoothly, while in Montana late-month rainfall provided beneficial moisture for newly planted

winter grains. Farther east, warm, mostly dry weather across the majority of the Corn Belt contrasted with

frequent showers in the upper Midwest. Corn harvesting advanced at a faster-than-normal pace in nearly all

Midwestern production areas, while rapid maturation of the soybean crop allowed harvesting to accelerate

toward month’s end. Mostly dry weather also prevailed in the East, except for rainy conditions in parts of the

southern Atlantic region. In fact, little rain fell during the second half of September east of a line from central

Texas to Lake Michigan. In the drought-stricken Southeast, dry weather favored harvest activities but

increased concerns about a lack of moisture for pastures and fall-sown crops.

A mid-month cold snap brought an unusually early freeze to parts of the upper Midwest and interrupted an

otherwise warm pattern from the Plains to the East Coast. However, most Midwestern summer crops were

mature enough to withstand the freeze, which affected areas as far south as Iowa on September 15. Monthly

temperatures generally averaged 2 to 6 degrees F above normal across the eastern one-third of the U.S., except

for near-normal readings in the southern Atlantic region. Meanwhile, warm weather prevailed in the West

during the first half of the month, followed by markedly cooler conditions thereafter. Monthly temperatures

averaged at least 4 degrees F below normal at several locations in southern California.

September Agricultural Summary

Temperatures, on average, were higher than normal nearly nationwide, with the exception of the Pacific Coast

States, Idaho, and Nevada, where temperatures were up to 4 degrees F cooler than average. Meanwhile, heavy

rainfall accumulations were received in the western Corn Belt, Delta, and southern Great Plains, as well as in

Florida, where up to 12 inches of rain drenched the southern and eastern portion of the State. Light to

moderate moisture fell across the rest of the country, with minimal accumulations in California, the High

Plains, and the northern Atlantic Coastal Plains where drought conditions continued due to below normal

precipitation.

By September 16, nearly all of the Nation’s corn acreage had reached the dent stage. At 96 percent, progress

was the same as the previous year but 6 points ahead of the average pace. Although development in some

States remained slightly behind last year, all were at or ahead of normal during the month. During the first

two weeks of the month, the crop rapidly matured, especially in the Corn Belt, where progress was well ahead

of normal. Maturity was delayed slightly in Colorado and Ohio early in the month, but by September 30, all

States were ahead of normal. By the end of the month, 91 percent of the crop had matured, 5 and 10 points

ahead of the previous year and normal, respectively. Progress was more than 20 points ahead of the 5-year

average in Michigan and Minnesota for most of the month and was only slightly less rapid in the rest of the

northern and central Corn Belt. Nationally, corn harvest began ahead of schedule, with 8 percent of the

acreage harvested by September 9. Early in the month, the harvest pace in Tennessee was 44 points ahead of

normal while in Illinois, Kentucky, and North Carolina harvest led the average by at least 10 points. 

Throughout the month, harvest continued without major delays and progressed at or ahead of normal in all

States. By month’s end, corn harvest, at 31 percent complete, was ahead of the 5-year average by 11 points. 

By September 23, most of the Nation’s sorghum acreage had colored, with progress at 96 percent. Coloring

remained more than 10 points ahead of normal throughout the month. Slight delays in development were

evident in Missouri and in Oklahoma, while the crop in all other States progressed at or beyond normal. 

Sorghum, at 35 percent mature early in the month, was 2 points ahead of normal nationwide but was delayed

in Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. By the end of the month, 74 percent of the crop was mature, 15 points

ahead of last year and 13 points ahead of normal, with only the Missouri crop trailing its average pace. Close

to one-fourth of the sorghum crop was harvested by September 9, ahead of normal by 3 points, mostly due to

the rapid progress of Arkansas and Texas. As harvest season progressed, producers remained well ahead of

schedule in Texas, but slowed to the normal pace in Arkansas. However, harvest gained momentum in

Illinois after mid-month, while progress in Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Oklahoma continued to lag

behind the 5-year average. 

 

Six percent of the Nation’s wheat crop had been planted by September 9, four points behind normal. All

States, except those in the Pacific Northwest, were behind average early in the month. These western States

remained mostly ahead of average throughout the month. Elsewhere delays continued, especially in the
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 35 NASS, USDA

central and southern Great Plains, where progress was 13 to 25 points behind normal at month’s end. 

Nationwide, 42 percent of the crop had been planted by the end of September, 7 points behind last year and

9 points behind the 5-year average. Due to the planting delays, emergence of the crop was also behind

schedule. By September 23, six percent had emerged, 2 points behind last year and 5 points behind the

normal pace. During the last week of the month, the crop rapidly emerged in Colorado, Nebraska, Oregon,

South Dakota, and Washington. By month’s end, 16 percent was emerged nationally, 5 points behind last

year and 7 points behind average, with emergence in many States still lagging behind normal. 

By September 9, rice harvest was gaining momentum with 35 percent of the crop harvested, ahead of last year

and normal by 2 and 5 points, respectively. By the end of the month, with nearly three-quarters of the crop

reaped, progress was behind last year by 1 point but ahead of normal by 2 points. Rice producers in

Mississippi and Missouri were ahead of normal by about two weeks and progress was near normal elsewhere. 

Harvest in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas was nearly complete by month’s end.

Soybean fields rapidly developed, with 32 percent of acreage at or beyond the leaf-dropping stage by

September 9, seven points ahead of last year and normal. Rapid development continued through the next two

weeks as the crop advanced more than 20 points each week, then slowed to an advance of 12 points during the

last week of the month. By the end of September, 88 percent of the acreage had begun dropping leaves,

3 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest started around mid-month, with

4 percent of the Nation’s acreage reaped, 1 point behind the previous year and 5-year average. By the end of

the month, harvest was 29 percent complete, ahead of last year by 11 points and ahead of the 5-year average

pace by 5 points. Producers were well ahead of normal in Illinois, Minnesota, and Tennessee, and near

normal in all States except Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, and South Dakota, where harvest

progress was between 5 and 11 points behind normal.

Sunflower harvest was just getting underway by September 30, with 5 percent of the crop harvested, on par

with the previous year but 1 point behind the 5-year average. Harvest progress in Colorado was well ahead of

last year and normal by 28 and 27 points, respectively. Kansas and South Dakota producers were lagging

behind normal.

Peanut harvest began around the middle of September in most States with most activity occurring in Florida. 

At that time, harvest had not begun in the Southwest limiting nationwide progress to 2 percent, 4 points

behind normal. By September 23, producers in all peanut-producing States had begun reaping the crop. As of

the end of the month, 9 percent of the peanut crop had been harvested, 1 and 13 points behind last year and the

5-year average, respectively. More than one-fifth of the crop had been harvested in Florida, South Carolina,

and Virginia but progress was well behind normal throughout the Southeast.

By the week ending September 9, forty-eight percent of the Nation’s cotton had opened bolls, 4 points behind

last year but 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Conditions allowed the acreage in Missouri, North

Carolina, and Tennessee to progress well ahead of the average pace. By September 30, just over

three-quarters of the acreage had open bolls but development was behind last year and average by 5 and

1 percent, respectively. Harvest began slowly at the beginning of September with producers in the lower

Delta, Georgia, and Texas behind their average pace. After mid-month, growers in Mississippi advanced

ahead of the normal pace but the other States continued to lag behind schedule. By September 30, twenty-one

percent of the crop was harvested nationwide, 2 points behind last year but 3 points ahead of normal. Progress

was well ahead of normal in the Delta, except in Louisiana where growers were 24 points behind.

By mid-month, sugarbeet harvest was underway with 6 percent of the acreage harvested, 1 point behind last

year but 3 points ahead of normal. At month’s end, 15 percent of the crop had been harvested, 1 and 2 points

ahead of last year and the 5-year average, respectively. All states were at or ahead of normal, with Michigan,

at 15 percent harvested, ahead by almost 2 weeks. 

Corn for grain: Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data bringing total

corn planted acres to 93.6 million acres, up 1 percent from June and 20 percent higher than 2006. Area

harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 86.1 million acres, up 1 percent from September and

22 percent higher than last year. If realized, this would be the most corn acres harvested for grain since 1933.

The October 1 corn objective yield data indicated number of ears per acre for the combined 10 objective yield

States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin)

is the highest on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2004. Record high ear counts were recorded in

all objective yield States except Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 36 NASS, USDA

The corn crop continued to develop ahead of normal under generally warmer than normal conditions during

September. By September 16, ninety-six percent of the Nation’s corn acreage had reached the dent stage,

unchanged from last year but 6 points ahead of the average pace. Although development in some States

remained slightly behind last year, all were at or ahead of normal during the month. During the first two

weeks of September, the crop rapidly matured, especially in the Corn Belt, where progress was well ahead of

normal. Maturity was delayed slightly in Colorado and Ohio early in the month, but by September 30, all

States were ahead of normal. By the end of the month, 91 percent of the crop had matured, 5 points ahead of

last year and 10 points ahead of normal. Progress was more than 20 points ahead of the 5-year average in

Michigan and Minnesota for most of the month and was only slightly less rapid in the rest of the northern and

central Corn Belt.

Corn harvest began ahead of schedule, with 8 percent of the acreage harvested by September 9. Early in the

month, the harvest pace in Tennessee was 44 points ahead of normal while in Illinois, Kentucky, and North

Carolina harvest led the average by at least 10 points. Throughout the month, harvest continued without

major delays and progressed at or ahead of normal in all States. By month’s end, corn harvest, at 31 percent

complete, was ahead of the 5-year average by 11 points.

Sorghum: Production is forecast at 501 million bushels, up 1 percent from last month and up 81 percent from

last year. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States. Planted area

was updated to 7.70 million acres, down less than 1 percent from June but up 18 percent from 2006. Area for

harvest as grain is forecast at 6.70 million acres, up 4,000 acres from last month and up 36 percent from last

year. Based on October 1 conditions, the yield is forecast at 74.8 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from

September and up 18.6 bushels from last year. If realized, this would be the highest yield on record. 

As of September 30, harvest had begun in all of the top 11 producing States. In these States, the sorghum

crop was 74 percent mature, 15 points ahead of last year and 13 points ahead of the normal pace. Harvest, at

37 percent complete, was 3 points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Harvest was 98 percent complete

in Arkansas and Louisiana. Wet weather hampered harvest activities in the Great Plains, where Kansas,

Nebraska, and Oklahoma trailed behind the normal pace. Yields are either increasing or unchanged from

September in all but 1 of the major sorghum producing States. The exception is Illinois, down 4 bushels from

last month. In Kansas and Texas, the top 2 producing States, sorghum yields are expected to remain

unchanged from September. If realized, the sorghum yield in Texas would be the highest on record and the

yield in Kansas would be 1.0 bushel below the record high. As of September 30, crop condition was rated

64 percent good to excellent compared with 32 percent last year.

Rice: Production is forecast at 197 million cwt, up 3 percent from the September forecast and up 2 percent

from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.73 million acres, unchanged from last month but down

3 percent from last year. As of October 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 7,215 pounds per acre, up 191 pounds

per acre from last month and up 347 pounds from last year. If realized, this will surpass the previous record

high yield of 6,988 pounds per acre set in 2004. Record high yields are expected in Arkansas, Louisiana, and

Mississippi. In Missouri, the expected yield would equal the record high set in 2004.

By the end of September, rice harvest in Louisiana and Texas was virtually complete at 96 and 99 percent,

respectively. California, Mississippi, and Missouri were ahead of their respective 5-year averages at month’s

end. In Arkansas, harvest was at 75 percent complete as of September 30, slightly behind the 5-year average.

Soybeans: Updates to planted acreage were made in several States based on administrative data. Planted area

was updated to 63.7 million acres, a decrease of less than 1 percent from the June forecast and down

16 percent from 2006. Area for harvest is forecast at 62.8 million acres, down less than 1 percent from

September and down 16 percent from last year. Record high yields are forecast in Louisiana, Mississippi,

Nebraska, and South Dakota along with a record tying yield in North Dakota. The October 1 objective yield

data for the combined seven major soybean producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri,

Nebraska, and Ohio) indicate a slightly lower pod count compared with last year. Pod counts are up from last

year in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska, but down from last year in the other four major producing States.

As of September 30, eighty-eight percent of the acreage was dropping leaves or beyond, 3 points ahead of last

year’s pace and 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Fifty-seven percent of the soybean crop was rated good

to excellent, 1 percentage point above the rating at the beginning of September but 5 points below the same

week in 2006. Crop conditions improved or were unchanged from the beginning of September in the Corn

Belt, the central Great Plains, and the Delta States, with the exception of Louisiana. The only other States to

show a decline in crop conditions during September were the Dakotas and North Carolina. As of

September 30, soybean harvest was progressing ahead of normal with 29 percent harvested, compared with

the 5-year average of 24 percent.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 37 NASS, USDA

Sunflower: The first production forecast for 2007 is 2.89 billion pounds, up 35 percent from 2006 but down

28 percent from 2005. Area planted, at 2.08 million acres, is up 11 percent from the June estimate and up

6 percent from last year. Sunflower growers expect to harvest 1.97 million acres, up 12 percent from June and

up 11 percent from the 2006 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,468 pounds, is 257 pounds more than

last year.

As of October 1, higher yields are expected in five of the seven major sunflower-producing States, with only

Minnesota and Nebraska farmers expecting lower yields compared with last year. Conditions were generally

good across most of the Great Plains, as adequate topsoil moisture during the growing season contributed to

improved yields. In North Dakota, the yield is forecast at 1,462 pounds per acre, up 166 pounds from the

2006 yield. As of September 30, seventy-nine percent of the sunflower crop in North Dakota was rated as

good to excellent, compared with only 39 percent at the same time last year. By the end of September, harvest

progress in Kansas and South Dakota was lagging behind last year’s pace and the 5-year average, while

harvest in Colorado and North Dakota was ahead of the 5-year average.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.42 billion pounds, down 1 percent from last year’s crop but up 3 percent

from last month. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.19 million acres, unchanged from September but

down 2 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,873 pounds per acre, up 70 pounds from last

month and up 10 pounds from 2006.

Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) is expected

to total 2.44 billion pounds, up 3 percent from September but down 3 percent from last year’s level. Expected

acreage for harvest, at 866,000, is unchanged from September but down 7 percent from 2006. Yields in the

region are expected to average 2,819 pounds per acre, 75 pounds above last month and 109 pounds above

2006. As of September 30, peanut harvest was 12 percent complete in Alabama, 25 percent complete in

Florida, and 5 percent complete in Georgia. Alabama and Georgia lagged their 5-year averages by at least

17 percentage points, while Florida lagged its 5-year average by 10 points. Peanut harvest in South Carolina,

at 21 percent complete, was closer to normal but still lagged its 5-year average by 4 points.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 263 million pounds, up slightly from September but down

19 percent from 2006. Expected acreage for harvest, at 113,000, is unchanged from September but up

12 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2,326 pounds per acre, up 7 pounds from last month but down

874 pounds from 2006. As of September 30, peanut harvest was 12 percent complete in North Carolina,

which was equal to the average, and 20 percent complete in Virginia, 9 percentage points ahead of the 5-year

average.

Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 715 million pounds,

up 3 percent from last month and up 15 percent from 2006. The expected acreage for harvest in the region

totals 211,000, unchanged from September but up 18 percent from the previous year. Yields are expected to

average 3,390 pounds per acre for the region, up 88 pounds from September but down 77 pounds from last

year’s level. On September 30, peanut harvest in Oklahoma and Texas was just under way with 9 percent and

2 percent complete, respectively.

Canola: The first production forecast for 2007 is 1.50 billion pounds, up 8 percent from 2006. Area planted,

at 1.18 million acres, is up 2 percent from the June estimate and up 13 percent from last year. Canola farmers

expect to harvest 1.14 million acres, up 2 percent from June and up 12 percent from 2006. The October yield

forecast, at 1,312 pounds per acre, is 54 pounds below last year’s yield. North Dakota's yield, at 1,310 pounds

per acre, is down 60 pounds from last year. Soil moisture was mostly adequate during the growing season in

North Dakota and harvest was nearly complete by mid-September, three weeks ahead of normal.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 10.3 million acres, is unchanged from last month but down

17 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested area is also unchanged from last month but down

11 percent from last year, at 289,000 acres. 

In the Southeastern States, defoliation of the crop was underway throughout the region. In Alabama, the crop

is developing ahead of normal. Harvest got underway by mid-September ahead of the 5-year average but

condition is rated mostly poor to very poor. In Georgia, harvest began by the end of September and was

behind the 5-year average. In the Carolinas and Virginia, harvest was progressing ahead of last year and the

5-year average. Objective yield measurements in Georgia show bolls per acre to be the lowest since 2002, but

boll weight is the third heaviest in the last five years. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 38 NASS, USDA

During the month of September, rainfall throughout the southern Delta delayed harvest. After the rain,

producers waited for bolls to dry out before resuming harvest, which limited progress. In Louisiana, as of

September 30, only 15 percent of the crop had been harvested, well behind last year’s 56 percent and the

5-year average of 39 percent. In the northern Delta, harvest was in full swing where Missouri and Tennessee

producers are well ahead of normal. Objective yield counts show the highest number of bolls per acre in the

last ten years for both Arkansas and Louisiana. In Mississippi, the objective yield survey indicates that the

boll weight is the second lowest in the last five years. 

In Texas, hot weather and timely rains helped advance crop development. Producers reported plants were full

with minimal boll shed. After a late start due to excessive rains during the summer, harvest in South Texas

was in full swing by the middle of September. In the High Plains, defoliation of early planted fields began

during the later part of the month with a few fields harvested by the end of the month. Objective yield

measurements in Texas show bolls per acre and boll weight to be the highest in the last ten years. In

Oklahoma, beneficial rains were received during the first part of September and 78 percent of the crop was

rated in good to excellent condition at month’s end. Only limited defoliation had begun at the end of the

month.

California upland cotton received ideal weather throughout the month of September allowing the crop to

develop ahead of normal. By late September, cooler temperatures allowed for defoliation to begin. In

Arizona, harvest of the crop was underway by the first of the month, slightly ahead of normal. Objective yield

data show California bolls per acre to be the highest in the last 10 years and boll weight to be third heaviest in

the last five years.

American-Pima production is forecast at 775,500 bales, down 2 percent from September but up 1 percent

from last year. The U.S. yield forecast is 1,288 pounds per acre, down 29 pounds from last month but up

152 pounds from last year. In California, where a record high production is forecast, harvest was underway

by late September. 

Ginnings totaled 1,560,650 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 2,572,150 running bales ginned

prior to the same date last year and 2,314,450 running bales in 2005.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Production of dry hay is forecast at 72.3 million tons, up 3 percent from the

August forecast and up 1 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to

average 3.37 tons per acre, up 0.11 ton from August and up 0.02 ton from 2006. Harvested area is forecast at

21.5 million acres, unchanged from August but slightly above the previous year’s acreage.

Yields are forecast to either remain unchanged or increase from the previous forecast across most States in the

Great Plains, Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, and Great Basin. Adequate rainfall during September resulted in

improved yield expectations. The largest yield increase is forecast in South Dakota and Texas, both up 0.6 ton

from the previous forecast. Record level yields are forecast in California, Nevada, South Dakota, Nebraska,

and Texas. The largest yield decrease is forecast in Kentucky, down 0.4 ton from the previous forecast as a

result of continuous dry conditions Statewide.

Other Hay: Production is forecast at 75.6 million tons, up slightly from the August forecast and up 8 percent

from 2006. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 1.87 tons, the same as the August

forecast but up 0.09 ton from last year. Harvested area, at 40.3 million acres, is unchanged from August but

up 2 percent from the previous year.

Compared with the previous forecast, growers in the southern and central Great Plains, Gulf Coast, Michigan,

and New York are expecting higher yields. Hay fields in Texas and Oklahoma benefitted from abundant

rainfall and producers are expecting record level yields. Yields are forecast to remain unchanged from August

in most of the Corn Belt but declined from the last forecast in the Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains,

middle Atlantic Coast, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. Pennsylvania showed the largest decrease in yield

from the previous forecast, down 1.2 tons.

Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 25.3 million cwt for 2007, up 6 percent from the

August forecast and 4 percent above last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.46 million acres, 2 percent

above the August forecast but 5 percent below last year. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,727 pounds

per acre, an increase of 78 pounds from the August forecast and 150 pounds above last year. Planted area is

estimated at 1.53 million acres, an increase of 1 percent from the August forecast but 6 percent below 2006.

In North Dakota, dry bean crop conditions were rated 65 percent good to excellent as of September 16. 

Harvest began in early September. If realized, both yield, at 1,650 pounds, and production, at 10.9 million
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 39 NASS, USDA

cwt, would be record highs. In Michigan, 80 percent of the crop was harvested by October 1. Some fields

suffered poor pollination and pod set due to drought conditions in July and early August; however, timely

rains fell during the remainder of the growing season. In Idaho, dry conditions in the northern part of the

State resulted in lower yields. Harvest was underway in California where yields were expected to be above

2006. Growing conditions in Colorado were hot and dry this summer with irrigation restrictions along the

Front Range and South Platte River leading to reduced planted acreage and yields. In Wyoming, conditions

were rated 93 percent fair to good as of September 23 and harvest was proceeding ahead of the 5-year

average.

Winter Potatoes: Production for 2007 is 2.47 million cwt, unchanged from the April estimate but 45 percent

below 2006. Florida winter potatoes were combined with spring potatoes for the 2007 crop. The California

production is 21 percent below 2006. Area for harvest in California, at 11,500 acres, is unchanged from April

but down 4 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 215 cwt per acre is unchanged from April but

45 cwt below a year ago. 

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 710 million pounds, down 1 percent from the September

forecast and 2 percent below 2006. Area for harvest is forecast at 355,070 acres, unchanged from the previous

forecast but 5 percent above last year. Yields for 2007 are expected to average 2,000 pounds per acre,

23 pounds lower than the September forecast and 144 pounds below a year ago. Average yields are expected

to decrease from the September forecast in all tobacco States except Missouri, North Carolina, and South

Carolina where average yields remained unchanged.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 456 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from the previous

forecast but 2 percent above 2006. Area for harvest is forecast at 225,000 acres in 2007, unchanged from the

September forecast but 6 percent above a year ago. Yields are forecast to average 2,024 pounds per acre,

9 pounds below the last forecast and down 71 pounds from a year ago. Yields in all flue-cured States were

unchanged from the September 1 forecast except Georgia where average yields decreased 100 pounds. 

Temperatures in Georgia continued to be slightly above normal and rainfall below average in September.

Burley production is expected to total 192 million pounds, down 3 percent from the September forecast and

12 percent below a year ago. Burley growers plan to harvest 105,200 acres, unchanged from last month’s

forecast but up 2 percent from 2006. Yields are expected to average 1,826 pounds per acre, 52 pounds below

the September forecast and down 269 pounds from a year ago. The production forecast for Kentucky, the

largest burley producing State, is 142 million pounds, 3 percent below the previous forecast and down

7 percent from last year. Growers in Kentucky expect yields to average 1,850 pounds per acre, down

50 pounds from the September 1 forecast and 250 pounds below 2006. Yields also declined in Ohio,

Tennessee, and Virginia while yields in all other burley States remained unchanged from the previous

forecast. Hot, dry weather continued in September in the majority of burley tobacco States. This limited

tobacco growth and resulted in poor curing conditions.

Fire-cured production is expected to total 37.6 million pounds, unchanged from the previous forecast but

5 percent below the previous year. Growers plan to harvest 13,300 acres, unchanged from the September

forecast but up 12 percent from 2006. Yields are expected to average 2,826 pounds per acre, unchanged from

last month but down 498 pounds from a year ago.

Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production in Pennsylvania is expected to total 2.31 million pounds,

unchanged from last month’s forecast but 11 percent above last year. A total of 1,100 acres is expected to be

harvested this year, unchanged from both last month and a year ago. The average yield, at 2,100 pounds per

acre, is unchanged from the September forecast but 200 pounds above 2006.

Dark air-cured tobacco is expected to total 11.8 million pounds, down 4 percent from last month and

10 percent below a year ago. Growers plan to harvest 4,650 acres, unchanged from the September forecast

but 8 percent above 2006. Yields are expected to average 2,544 pounds per acre, 100 pounds below last

month’s forecast and down 515 pounds from last year.

All cigar production is forecast to total 10.6 million pounds, 5 percent below the September forecast but up

26 percent from 2006. Growers of cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 5,820 acres, unchanged from last month

but 18 percent above a year ago. Overall, yields are expected to average 1,828 pounds per acre, 88 pounds

below the previous forecast but up 129 pounds from a year ago.

Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at 30.4 million tons, 1 percent above the September forecast but

11 percent below last year’s production of 34.1 million tons. Growers expect to harvest 1.24 million acres,

unchanged from September but down 5 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 24.5 tons per acre, up
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 40 NASS, USDA

0.3 ton from last month but down 1.6 tons from the 2006 record high yield. Yields are at or below last year’s

level in Idaho, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota.

Harvested acreage is forecast to be the lowest since 2001. Although yield is down from last year’s record

high, it will be the second highest, if realized. On September 30, harvest was 15 percent complete in the four

major producing States, 2 points ahead of normal. Harvest was progressing at the normal pace in the Red

River Valley but was ahead of schedule in Idaho and Michigan.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2007 is forecast at 30.4 million tons, unchanged

from the September forecast but up 3 percent from 2006. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 883,500 acres

for sugar and seed during the 2007 crop year, unchanged from September but 14,600 acres less than last year. 

Yield is forecast at 34.4 tons per acre, the same as last month but up 1.5 tons from last year. 

Harvested acreage in Florida is down slightly compared with last year but the yield is up 1 ton, resulting in a

production forecast 2 percent above last year. The crop in Louisiana follows the same trend with harvested

acreage down 15,000 acres, yield up 1.7 tons, and production up 3 percent from 2006. Yields are forecast

above last year in all producing States except Texas, where the yield is expected to decline 0.3 ton.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2007-08 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.49 million tons, 5 percent lower than

2006-07 but 21 percent higher than the 2005-06 final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's grapefruit

production is forecast at 25.0 million boxes (1.06 million tons), 8 percent below last season but up 30 percent

from the 2005-06 hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes (820,000 tons). The white

grapefruit forecast is 9.00 million boxes (383,000 tons), down 3 percent from 2006-07 but 38 percent above

the 2005-06 final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), is

11 percent lower than last season but 25 percent above 2005-06 utilization. Current fruit sizes were below the

minimum of the last eight years and were projected to be the smallest at harvest since the 2001-02 season. 

Bearing white seedless tree numbers have declined by 7 percent from last season and tree numbers for colored

grapefruit have dropped by 2 percent.

The October 1 Texas grapefruit forecast is 6.80 million boxes (272,000 tons), down 4 percent from last season

but 31 percent higher than 2005-06 final utilization. The California grapefruit forecast of 4.50 million boxes

(151,000 tons), is 13 percent higher than the 2006-07 season but 25 percent lower than 2005-06. Grapefruit

for the 2007-08 season continued to develop normally as harvest of the 2006-07 crop wound down. Arizona’s

forecast, at 200,000 boxes (7,000 tons), is double the production from each of the last two seasons.

Lemons: The initial forecast for the 2007-08 U.S. lemon crop is 684,000 tons, down 3 percent from 2006-07

and 30 percent lower than 2005-06. California production is forecast at 16.5 million boxes (627,000 tons),

3 percent above last season but 25 percent lower than 2005-06. Harvest started in the desert growing region

where the winter freeze had a negative impact on production. The production forecast for Arizona is

1.50 million boxes, 40 percent lower than last season and 61 percent below 2005-06. The freeze in January

resulted in lower fruit set and smaller sized fruit. 

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), 4 percent above 2006-07 but down

7 percent from 2005-06 final utilized production. Bearing trees have decreased by 12 percent from last

season. The current fruit size is the smallest since 1993-94 but the fruit set is up considerably from 2006-07.

Tangerines: The initial 2007-08 U.S. tangerine forecast is 433,000 tons, up 28 percent from the 2006-07

season and 4 percent higher than 2005-06 final utilization. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 5.10 million

boxes (242,000 tons), 11 percent higher than 2006-07 but 7 percent lower than the 2005-06 utilization of

5.50 million boxes. While fruit size was below normal, fruit set has been well above last season. California’s

tangerine forecast is 4.70 million boxes (176,000 tons), up 62 percent from last season’s freeze-damaged crop

and 31 percent above 2005-06. Harvest of Satsuma tangerines has begun in parts of the State. Arizona’s

forecast, at 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons), is 33 percent higher than last season but 27 percent below 2005-06.

Florida Citrus: All citrus producing areas received less than average amounts of rainfall for the month of

September. Cooler mornings in conjunction with late afternoon to early evening rainstorms during the third

and fourth weeks of September were a welcome relief to producers in many areas. High temperatures reached

the low to mid 90s during the day and night lows were in the upper 60s toward the end of the month.

Although average fruit per tree was higher across all citrus, average fruit size was smaller. Maturity levels

were slightly behind normal as of October 1. Some splitting of fruit was noticed late in September due to dry

weather followed by some moderately heavy days of rain. Harvest began on Fallglo tangerines, Ambersweet
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 41 NASS, USDA

and Navel oranges, and grapefruit. Caretakers were mowing, applying herbicide, fertilizing, pulling vines,

and cleaning groves. Scouting for canker and greening continued.

Texas Citrus: The citrus crop was reported to have good quality fruit with good size. Blemishing caused by

pests appeared to be average. Maturity was slightly behind normal in the Rio Grande Valley due to the rainy

summer.

Arizona Citrus: Citrus groves and fruit quality were reported to be in good condition with fruit size being

relatively good. The freeze of January 2007 mainly impacted the lemon crop for the upcoming season. 

Lemon harvest started in September. 

California Citrus: Some growers were treating to control fungus, insects and weeds, irrigating, topping

trees, and applying nutrients. Foliar nutrients were being applied in some orange groves. The Navel orange

crop was looking good with reports of heavy volumes in orchards. Old crop Valencia oranges were nearing

the season’s end.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape growers continued to fertilize, irrigate, cultivate, and spray to

control weeds, diseases, and insect pests in vineyards across the State. Raisin grape growers were breaking

canes on dried-on-the-vine varieties or laying grapes on trays to dry. Autumn Royal, Champagne, Crimson

Seedless, Christmas Rose, Niabell Concord, Kyoho, Red Globe, Summer Royal, and Thompson Seedless

varieties were being harvested for fresh use. Wine and juice grape harvest continued for Alicante Bouchet,

Grenache, Merlot, Muscat, Pinot Noir, Thompson Seedless, and Zinfandel varieties. Stone fruit cultural

practices such as irrigation, fall pruning, and treatments to control weeds and insect pests continued

throughout the month. Jujube and fig harvests continued. Peach varieties harvested were Autumn Flame,

Prima Gattie, Sweet September, September Snow, September Sun, Snow Fall, Snow Gem, and Snow Magic. 

Nectarine varieties that continued to be harvested were Arctic Mist, Arctic Pride, Autumn Blaze, Late Red

Jim, and Summer Flare. Plum harvest continued with Angeleno and October Gem varieties being picked and

packed. Black Kat, Flavorich, and Holiday pluot harvest continued. Pomegranate harvest continued for Early

Wonderful, Wonderful, and Early Foothill varieties. Granny Smith and Gala apple varieties were being

picked. Quince harvest was nearing completion by the end of the month and pear harvest was ongoing. A

few fall strawberries were being picked. Olive fruit continued to size and some orchards were sprayed for

olive fruit fly. Almond harvest continued and groves were being treated for insects and weeds. Pistachio

harvest was underway throughout the month. Pesticides for codling moths, husk flies, and mites were being

applied in walnut groves. Cultural activities in nut orchards, such as fertilization and irrigation, were

underway during the month.

Apples: The final U.S. apple production forecast for the 2007 crop year is 9.25 billion pounds, slightly less

than the August forecast and down 7 percent from last year. Production decreases from August were noted in

both Michigan and New York while Virginia showed an increase in production. North Carolina,

Pennsylvania, Washington, and West Virginia remained unchanged from the August forecast. 

Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, and WA) is forecast at 5.99 billion pounds,

unchanged from August but down 4 percent from 2006. Washington production, which makes up 58 percent

of the U.S. total, is forecast at 5.40 billion pounds, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4 percent

from last year. Warm days and cool nights during the late summer and early fall resulted in good fruit color. 

Harvest has progressed fairly smoothly, with the labor supply not presenting any major problems. All other

Western States were carried forward from the August forecast.

Production in the Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, and WV) is

forecast at 2.29 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the August forecast and down 6 percent from last year. 

The apple forecast in New York, at 1.26 billion pounds, is 2 percent less than the August forecast but up

1 percent from 2006. Dry weather in the Lake Ontario growing region resulted in smaller fruit, while the

Hudson Valley and Lake Champlain regions had good growing and harvest seasons. As of October 1, harvest

was 58 percent complete. Pennsylvania’s forecast, at 455 million pounds, is unchanged from August but

3 percent less than last year. Although trees carried a good crop load, dry weather conditions across the State

negatively affected fruit size. Fruit finish and coloring have been excellent this year. Virginia’s forecast of

210 million pounds is up 5 percent from the August forecast but 5 percent lower than 2006. Scattered

showers across the apple growing region helped increase fruit size from August. Harvest conditions have

been excellent and harvest was nearly one-third complete. West Virginia forecast an apple crop of

80.0 million pounds, unchanged from August but down 11 percent from last year. Dry weather across the

State reduced fruit size and harvest was 56 percent complete. The apple forecast in North Carolina of

50.0 million pounds remained unchanged from August but is down 71 percent from 2006. Drought across the
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 42 NASS, USDA

State has been persistent. As of October 1, harvest was 71 percent complete. All other Eastern States were

carried forward from the August forecast. 

Production in the Central States (IL, IN, IA, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, and WI) is forecast at 969 million

pounds, a decrease of 1 percent from August and 21 percent below 2006. Michigan’s production forecast is

780 million pounds, down 1 percent from August and 8 percent below 2006. A hot, dry growing season

resulted in below normal fruit size for some varieties. Yields are lower than normal in the Grand Rapids,

southwest, and eastern regions of the State, but are higher in the northwest and west-central areas. Harvest is

ahead of schedule for most varieties. All other Central States were carried forward from the August forecast.

Pecans: The October 1, 2007 forecast of pecan utilized production is 320 million pounds (in-shell basis), up

55 percent from last year’s crop and 14 percent above 2005. Improved varieties are expected to produce

260 million pounds or 81 percent of the total, while native and seedling varieties, at 59.2 million pounds,

make up the remaining 19 percent. The 2007 crop is expected to be larger than last year’s in most producing

States mainly because it is a high year in the alternate bearing pattern typical of pecans. Production is lower

than last year in Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri due to a severe Easter freeze, and in Louisiana, which is in a

down-cycle production season.

Georgia’s forecast, at 100 million pounds, would make the State the leading pecan producer. 

The crop is over twice as large as last season’s and up 25 percent from 2005. Pecan trees in Georgia had a

very large nut set in 2007. Hot, dry weather limited nut size in dryland orchards and limited disease and insect

damage. The Easter freeze damaged some trees in the eastern part of the State, but the major growing area in

the southwest escaped most of the damage. New Mexico’s production forecast of 71.0 million pounds would

rank the State second in pecans for 2007. The forecast represents a 54 percent increase from last year and is

up 9 percent from 2 years ago. October 1 pecan conditions were mostly good to excellent despite some yield

loss in the eastern part of the state due to an early freeze. The Texas forecast is 70.0 million pounds,

49 percent more than the 2006 crop and 8 percent more than 2005. This season’s pecan crop is extremely

heavy in most areas. There have been numerous reports of limbs breaking from the intense load on the trees. 

The only limiting factor was the loss of some trees to drought or freeze last year.

Production in Arizona is forecast at 23.0 million pounds, up 64 percent from last year and 5 percent above the

2005 crop. Oklahoma production, at 20.0 million pounds, is up 18 percent from 2006, but 5 percent below

2 years ago. The size of the production increase was limited by the Easter weekend freeze that caused

extensive damage in the northern half of the State. Tree branches in southern Oklahoma were breaking from

the weight of their nut loads. The Louisiana forecast of 12.0 million pounds is down 43 percent from last

year, mainly due to an off-cycle season, but is still over twice that of 2005. Alabama’s production is forecast

at 11.0 million pounds, up 83 percent from 2006 and nearly 3 times 2005. Two hurricane seasons followed by

very low production last year created a situation where a majority of trees in the State set a very heavy crop in

2007.

Grapes: U.S. grape production is forecast at 6.99 million tons, virtually unchanged from the August forecast

but 9 percent above 2006. California leads the U.S. in grape production with 88 percent of the total. 

Washington and New York are the next largest producing States, with 6 percent and 3 percent, respectively. 

California’s all grape forecast, at 6.18 million tons, is unchanged from August but 7 percent above last year. 

Washington growers expect to produce 385,000 tons, 1 percent above the previous forecast and up 22 percent

from last year. New York’s forecast, at 176,000 tons, is down 2 percent from August but 14 percent above a

year ago.

California’s wine type grape production is expected to total 3.20 million tons, unchanged from the August

forecast but up 1 percent from 2006. Wine type grapes account for 52 percent of California’s grape crop. The

wine type grape harvest progressed well until rain and cool temperatures hit the State. The unfavorable

weather caused some growers to delay harvest until sugar content returned to more adequate levels. 

California’s raisin type grape production is forecast at 2.20 million tons, 36 percent of California’s total grape

crop. The production forecast for raisin type grape varieties is unchanged from the previous forecast but

18 percent above a year ago. Production of table type grapes is forecast at 780,000 tons, unchanged from the

August forecast but 7 percent above last year. Late table type grape varieties were being harvested for fresh

use. The major varieties picked included Crimson Seedless, Red Globe, and Autumn Royal. Overall, the

quality of grapes was reported to be extremely good this year, although berry size is not as large as in some

seasons.

Washington’s production is forecast at 385,000 tons, up 1 percent from the August forecast and 22 percent

above 2006. If realized this will be the second largest grape crop on record, surpassed only by the 2005 crop

of 415,000 tons. The juice type grape forecast, at 260,000 tons, is up 4 percent from the previous forecast and
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 43 NASS, USDA

33 percent above last year. Spring and summer growing conditions have been favorable this year with only

minor frost damage reported. Wine type grape production is forecast at 125,000 tons, down 5 percent from

August but 4 percent above a year ago. An increase in bearing acreage and favorable growing conditions left

wine grape growers in Washington expecting a record high crop.

New York’s grape production is forecast at 176,000 tons, 2 percent below the August forecast but up

14 percent from a year ago. New York growers are expecting an average crop. Dry, warm weather

contributed to quicker ripening and higher sugar solids which increased berry quality. However, the

drought-like conditions left some vines and berries stressed, weak, or dead. Overall, berries were reported to

be average to below average in size.

Michigan’s grape production is forecast at 100,000 tons, up 5 percent from the August forecast, 208 percent

above last year’s frost-devastated crop, but 3 percent below 2005. The warm, dry conditions this season were

ideal for ripening and allowed the grape crop to progress ahead of normal. While the extremely dry

conditions had a negative effect on berry size, quality was reported to be good to excellent.

Pennsylvania’s grape production is forecast at 80,000 tons, 4 percent below the August forecast and down

2 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to be fair this year. The dry, hot weather negatively affected

berry size in some vineyards. However, Brix levels were reported to be high and grape quality excellent thus

far.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.41 million pounds for August 2007, up 1 percent

from the previous month and 9 percent higher than the comparable month a year ago. Total area in crop for

August is estimated at 2,135 acres, 23 percent higher than July 2007 but 1 percent less than August 2006. 

Harvested area totaled 1,395 acres, 72 percent higher than July of this year and up 5 percent from the same

month last year. August weather was characterized as mostly sunny combined with occasional showers which

benefitted orchard growth and development. Irrigation was stepped up to replenish soil moisture levels. 

Newly planted acreage made favorable progress.

Prunes (Dried Plums): California’s 2007 prune production forecast is 90,000 dried tons, down 5 percent

from the June 1 forecast and 50 percent lower than last year’s crop of 180,000 tons. The 2007 prune crop

experienced an extremely warm period during bloom. As a result of poor pollination, fruit set was depressed. 

Many growers in Yuba and Sutter Counties experienced extremely low yields. Production was also hindered

due to stressed orchards recovering from the previous year’s high production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 44 NASS, USDA

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast

Field Crop Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between

September 24 and October 5 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield

surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for

about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The

counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant

counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears,

bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a

projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are

revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has

harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal

interviewers. Over 15,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about

probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide

indications of average yields.

Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the October 1 forecast was conducted in

Florida, which produced about 73 percent of the U.S. production last season. In August and September 2007,

the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In September and subsequent

months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of

production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in

October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for

navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Field Crop Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were

reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed

considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State

Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The

ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecasts. 

Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for

errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in

Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of

the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made

each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of

the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings,

feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative

data warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the

August Crop Production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey. 

Planted acres may also be revised for cotton, peanuts, and rice in the September Crop Production report each

year; spring wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats only in the Small Grains Annual report at the end of

September; and all other spring planted crops in the October Crop Production report. Revisions to planted

acres will only be made when either special survey data or administrative data are available. Harvested acres

may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested

area has changed since the last forecast. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September’s

Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root

Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is 3.5 percent. This means that

chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 45 NASS, USDA

more than 3.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not

exceed 6.1 percent.

Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the

October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the

October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 199 million bushels, ranging

from 3 million bushels to 624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate

9 times and above 11 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to

understate or overstate final production.

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Crop Unit

Root Mean

Square Error

20-Year Record of

Differences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Percent

90

Percent

Confidence

Interval

Quantity Years

Average Smallest Largest

Below

Final

Above

Final

Million Million Million Number Number

Corn for Grain

Sorghum for Grain

Rice

Soybeans for Beans

Cotton 1

Dry Edible Beans

Oranges 1

Oranges 

1 2

Bu

Bu

Cwt

Bu

Bales

Cwt

Tons

Tons

3.5

6.1

2.7

2.3

4.6

3.7

9.2

4.5

6.1

10.6

4.8

4.0

8.0

6.5

15.9

8.0

199

23

4

43

716

1

641

423

3

1

0

1

31

 *

18

18

624

105

13

103

1,706

3

2,043

887

9

9

11

9

15

14

7

7

11

11

9

11

5

6

13

8

* Less than 1 million.

Quantity is in thousands of units. 1

Excluding freeze and hurricane seasons. 2
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2007 46 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics

Service to contact for additional information.

Jeff Geuder, Chief... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . (202) 720-2127

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-5944

Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... (202) 720-8068

Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-9526

Greg Thessen - Peanuts, Rice .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . (202) 720-2127

Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-7369

King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... (202) 690-3234

Dawn Keen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-7621

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section

Lance Honig, Head .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... (202) 720-2157

Faye Propsom - Citrus, Tropical Fruits .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... (202) 720-4288

Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4215

Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils,

Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

Wrinkled Seed Peas .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . (202) 720-3250

Faye Propsom - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

Plums, Prunes .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... . (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4285
 

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USDA Data Users’ Meeting

October 29, 2007

Crowne Plaza Chicago O’Hare

Rosemont, Illinois

(847) 671-6350

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The

purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs

and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the

Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and

World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be

included in the meeting.

For registration details or additional information for the Data Users’ Meeting, see the NASS homepage at

www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at 

marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov.

This Data Users’ Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on

October 30, 2007. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to

discuss the outlook situation. For registration details or additional information for the Industry Outlook

Meeting see the Livestock and Marketing Information Center (LMIC) homepage at www.lmic.info or 

contact Jim Robb at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.