pennsyLvania 

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION 

SECRETARY 

March 7, 2014 

Mr. Shawn Garvin 

Regional Administrator 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region III 

1650 Arch Street (Mail Code: 3RAOO) 

Philadelphia, P A 19103-2029 

Dear Mr. Garvin: 

Enclosed for your approval is a revision to the Pennsylvania State Implementation Plan (SIP) to 

update the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (MVEBs) in the "Maintenance Plan and Base Year 

Inventory: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area" (Maintenance 

Plan). The Maintenance Plan was developed according to Section 175A(b) of the Clean Air Act 

(42 U.S.C.A. §7505a(b». This Maintenance Plan revision was developed in accordance with the 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) April 2012 guidance document titled, "Policy 

Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 and Subsequent Minor Revisions for State Implementation 

Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes." The Pennsylvania 

Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) requests that the EPA use the direct final 

rulemaking process to expedite the approval of this non-controversial SIP revision. 

The Commonwealth has completed its public participation process for this SIP revision. DEP 

opened a public comment period from December 14,2013, to January24, 2014, and scheduled a 

public hearing to occur on January 23,2014, if requested by the public. No member of the 

public requested a public hearing or requested to present testimony; DEP, therefore, cancelled 

the hearing, with notice posted on its website. DEP received no comments on the proposed SIP 

revision. 

The following documents are enclosed for your approval: 

1. Volume I: State Implementation Plan Revision: NOx Motor Vehicle Emission Budget 

Revisions Based on the MOVES2010a Model- Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE) 

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance. Revised MVEBs are included in this document. 

2. Volume II: TechnicalSupport Document: State Implementation Plan Revision: NOx 

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the MOVES2010a Model ABE 

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area. 

3. Certification of public participation activities. 

4. Appendix C - Maintenance Plan Update for the ABE 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone 

Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Using MOVES201OaRachel Carson State Office Building I P.O. Box 2063 I Harrisburg, PA 17105-2063 

717.787.2814 !J2! 

Printed on Recycled Paper C6--e www.depweb.state.pa.us 
Mr. Shawn Garvin - 2 - March 7, 2014 

Technical Support Document - Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory. 

Appendix C of this SIP revision replaces Appendix C in the ABE Ozone Maintenance 

Plan in its entirety. 

5. Attachment 1: Table 2 and Table 5 of Volume II in Microsoft Excel format. 

A paper copy and a disc containing a searchable PDF copy of the revised Maintenance Plan are 

enclosed. I certify that the electronic files are an exact duplicate of the hard copy. 

The EPA approved all of the components of the ABE Redesignation Request and the ABE 

Ozone Maintenance Plan, including the MVEBs for 2009 and 2018, on March 4,2008, 

(73 FR 11557) and redesignated the ABE Area to attainment for the 2008 eight-hour ozone 

standard. 

As you know, the EPA updated the model that estimates highway vehicle emissions. The new 

model, the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES), better estimates emissions from 

highway vehicles, but MOVES estimates much higher emissions of oxides of nitrogen, than the 

Mobile6.2 model used to derive the MVEBs in the approved ABE Maintenance Plan. The 

metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) for the area, the Northeastern Pennsylvania 

Alliance (NEPA) MPO (Carbon County) and the Lehigh Valley MPO (Lehigh and Northampton 

Counties), which are responsible for transportation planning in Carbon, Lehigh, and 

Northampton Counties, use those approved MVEBs to satisfy transportation conformity 

requirements. The MPOs are required to use the most up-to-date version of MOVES for all new 

transportation planning that begins after March 2,2013. Approval of the updated MVEBs in the 

Commonwealth's SIP will allow the MPOs to compare similarly generated emissions used in its 

plans and the MVEBs, which will allow transportation projects to go forward in a timely manner. 

If you have any questions or need additional information, please contact Joyce E. Epps, Director 

of the Bureau of Air Quality, by email atjeepps@pa.gov or by telephone at 717.787.9702. 

Sincerely, 

E. Christopher Abruzzo 

Secretary 

Enclosures 
COMMON\NEALTH OF PF.N~ISYLVAt"IA 

STI)..521 REV_ 06,,2J)10 , \ I'N;;O;oi'"";>o:---------------·--

PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION AND INVOICE L "'Q~QcA;!E:;NSAiL~F.Q@Ii16N{'fo be completed by_ a9.~n9-IT~ _ _:_.__:._:.-.::~ _ _:.~_:.==~-~~=_ ==:-----~------- ro ll<MlF: AND WnlIi,5 Of ~IOW$P~Pf.N1 I FEOERAI 1 D NOJ$OC SEC NO FROM ~N~ME NIO AOllRE',,,, or AGENL:Y) AGr::NCY , Tr.\ [PI lONE NO 

Allentown Motning Cal! . 23~0337560 Alex Ha<ls 717-7879495 

\01 Nortn$lxthStreet - ~-- - PA DEP;Bmeau of Air Quality -

PO Box 1260 PO Box 8468 

Allentown PA 181051260 D H:-'Wl<:hllrrl PA 171(j;;;~)14r-;R 1m _._. ________ ~------.-~--.-.--. ______ . __ L _________ ... __ ... .-..... _____ ._ .. _____ _ HEREWITH is_ E)~CLOSED COpy F:~ pusLiCAilOH OF AOV:"RTISEMENT FO''l. PROP03~.LS TO j' TYPE OF ,Il,[l 

r EMPlOY J PURCHASE 1 C(Y~mA()T r SELL r- G1AS~)lr':EJ jx I EGAi ['OTIC E 

I UI:KT3HX6VEHilS1:~iE.NriIT6 cir"""\Ho1ESr -~ IMAxrMGt-Jf,j(S-Gf'~DA1E -~-~-~---- ---- ~ - ~- -- - . -rf~DEp. ~To-- - -- - ~ - - -~~- -

~;~~%Er:T~~~~rr;~~~:-~::~~~~~:2~; ;--------== .... ==T~(~~;,~t ()~ - y-ou~asver1cior:areauth;rized to[)UbIiSh thisadvertlSement -in y;ul--rie\,;-spaper~subJeci to-the ieirri-softhi-S;;der, as folloWs 

Advertisement to be published in regular advertising columns, no position specified; caption of two lines and Signature to be in 

capitals and subject matter and title of officer to be set solid in type regula[Jy usesL9,LY9,~L.D"-~.~~P!"U91.J2,!QliQ __ Q~fll)llJJS',js:e 

?dvertising; charge to be made at the rate charged to and paid by commercial advertisers for matter similarly set and occupying 

similar space; advertisement to be run in the editions specified above_ Vendor agrees that, in the performance of any contract 

awarded to it hereunder, said vendor will not discriminate against any employee or other persollS on account of race, c910r, sex, 

religious creed, ancestry, age or national origin and that the Commonwealth, upon receipt of satisfactory evidence of such discriminauon, shall have the right to cancel said contract Return this copy at once if you will not accept this advertisement under 

the terms set forth. 

Return Original and two caples (signed by the editor 01' publisher) to the agency listed above_ Proof of advertising 

In the form of a tear sheet must be stapled to original and copies, Original must be notarized, 

Commonwealth to be billed only for aclual number of printed lines published, 

PATE OF lNSERTIOI'i ACTUAL HO, OF FIH1NTED LINES COST I'I'OH LINE T0TI\lAMOUI-lT 

1st Ad 

2nd Ad 

3rdAd 

GRAND TOTAL "') -,:~!~-- '--,-:,"~ -- -.,~ 

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Commonwealth of Pe;;iisyTvanra~ .. ' ',- .' :, .. 

co,:~;~~: ~;~~~~;;b~;:-~-N~tary P;;-bn~-;~~~~ for said County, personally carne _ 8IJC~IDn .LL_Rt?Frs.J&C_ 

who being duly sworn, doth depose and say thatshe is' /I:'k,:n:,(t""X_O't __ BJll!'li:i.,c,:_C",iJfQ:b:"',,_I,.:, ______ ._. ________ . __ the'1he /lfbrn:..nq n,_ \ \ a general newspaper published >It ~\ \''''£'i\:c''''X<, fA -----:--;-c--. 

that the advertis~me;;t, of which tearsheet Is attached hereto, was published in the regular adVertising columns of said newspaper, 

in the editions of said newspaper, in all respects as ordered and invoiced above; and that the Commonwealth is not charged 

therefor at a rate higher than is cllarged any ordinary advertiser for a similar amount of matter occupying similar space and set in a 

similar matter, in said newspaper. 

Sworn 22',d;~scribep before me this / 3'f~r 

:~~~RZ_-~-~--::~~~~~:-_~~i:"~6~"J~;;~o'j;L~::~~~~j::::,'J! .. ,.; 

~commlSSlon expIres i' -1 '· .. C'··',·:;''''·.::;q!.c''''·,,······,·,' , . . ----~00,n~~,r-::·;;<;i.\,,':;--'>,':';:;';;:~::~·~~;~-:"_ .. ,." :-::,'.'::;'. "~'-:::-""'"'~',": ,_,~ 'This affidavit must be made by the Owne.f, PUbllslie';:' 'or'"(j;'e'·\jfu~lgrrat;;;(r~!&·em~6flh\ii (hih'efl~6Publisher. 
.. _ '_ ",-,-,_ -', '. ' _ .", -,_, -c' _, i_, .. _" ' ,.' ,-1< '. 

Prj)PQsed Revisiorrto the state Implementation_ Plan for the Motor Vehicle' 

Emiss,ions Budgets in the 'Allentown"BethleMm"castop -,(AB,E), ,1997 , _ , : "Eight-Hour,OIoileMaintena'nce_A~ai " ; , '~';;:'-:_ ._':, ,l'ublicHearing :, "'--": ';, -".\. ("",,/.-. 

The·. Pennsylva-nia:;'Departmenf of· Environmental,-, Protection .. (Depart- ment). is' revislng'-.the -motor'vet1ic1e emissions Dudgets (MVEBs),' ,for thE! ,- Allento-wn;.Bethlehem"-Easto,n; (AI!E-) 1997- _Elaht:..Hour_ Ozqne Mainte,'- I nan~e_ Area '(A)3E:';Are''!J. ,The revised budge~, a'Me i3-pproved, btt~e 'Ll.S.- Eqv:tronm~ntal:.prQteqlon A_geney, (EPA)/WJU alloW..loca1.'transportatlon pla'nnih:g a,gen'c:I!?s b·b,etter <:ompa're highway vehicle emissions in trans~ 

portation"plans, wi,th, MVE8s'in .the State::;lmplementation Plar,,(SIF).,The SIP will pOW: io'du~e,;highway,emi_ssi0tlfi e~tir:rl!a!ed -'1J?lng)l;1e "same:f,j:;o_in", puter model that 'local pl,anmng',agencles ,'ana :req-ulredJeruse .f9r d~velop-", 

109 -,their, ,transporiafi,on 'p[ans,-:;-The, gPA.:O'c!_eveloj?ed ,a "'heW :com-\,:ufer/ model/. tne, Molor:. Vehicle-__ Emissions --~rm'ulator" (MOVES)/"I{hiCh ;esti-'-, , mates' -emi~i6ns', tram-highway. ye,~icles rhote ,accurately:, The,Depart;' 

ment used the forme'r: EPA-approved model, MOBILE6, for ~estimatlng" highway:,'Vehic1es, ,~l1,1issi6ns' in' .the ,_ap'prov:e~,:- maintenance'''plan fQf,,,'he 

,ABE Ali'e,~ .. ;:ElTllssions, of 'nitrogen :o~ide_~" 'andi .. ,in" 'sorY\t~-:,-cases, ;'v.ol,~tile:;­

o~ganic: c;ompounds;,_ are -estimated'_b'lJh'e'iMOYE:Q!-mode:I', tc!' be :'i;!.I_ h1ghe~ " 

levels -'tlian:t~e;' f!!\ YEBs, approved lly-_EF'-A:Jd"the, __ ABE:; Area' _,Malnten:ance 

'Plan: ~Tne --Transportation Co.nformify :regulation ~req!!lih;lS': that- emissions:' 

from _updat.i3:d IQc_al-trar:rspo(fation 'improvement :p[ans do, not.-exceed" the 

'MVEB in.t~e·are~(s,approved,"appli.cable SIP. BY:,usiI)9Jhe:_same, model 

in-'transportation ,"planning _and : the: ;SIP; ',-a niore,",f;eaUstlt Icomparison i 

::b~t~een th_~,tVo'_o:w!II'fes!:Jlt, which wllLoff~r \~~,cti,;ms:~,of tl!"aTl~portatiQ~ -prolects bemg_,delayed,', '-, ,-: ,,';'-- ";:,-'; ,'-,".--,,:.'-",,:; ,:', ;', :" :;'_ :, 

Th-i_~':':-~i"o'~6'~'~i-.":i~:',~ '~J~ii"~b I:~" :_6~ ;h'e_--' ,[)~P~'rt"th~,rif'~"":-W,~b$'lt~"::~{ :'~it'/.11 www •. dep.sf~te;pa.l.Is/d~p I. dep Utate/ airwast~1 ag1.defa0It;htm, qr -t~ro_Ug,tl , -"the,conta.ctpersqns-,Ilsted.,:_::,:;:'-' '-, ,"'--,-,':'-'>-",:',-,.: ,', ' ',-:-- '" 

, ThE! 'De'~~rl-ine~t""k:sk_~_kin~{~ob)i~' co~eiir-o'n"u'Pd~t~_d~,eirtjs~i6ti~ :in thi'~ proposed 'SJ~:'Teylslonl'wJ1icn- ,include 'changes made to..the motoLVel1icle ' 

-,emissions bljdget!1- i;'Ind __ i1:rel,point _ sour,ce,'inventory.'3he, Oepartmehf,:,.'w,iIl ;hold 'a -public: hearin91.':lf_<.r~Ciue,sted, to.- rece_iv-.e"-comments,,arn-the -pr9Posai_ ' 

al'.lO:OQ ,a_:m. :ori)anuary:'-~3;: ~OJ'4,An ,the'2I"1d_F 100r-::L1ttle ',SC;~Ylkl1l. ~oom 

" af.'the.-PennsYrvanla'-Departmen1_ of: En'Vir()nrnentaI:,:Pr9tec;:.ti~n! s- Northeast, 

,~:e~i:O_D_~-!:,:~,iC~( ~,,:~:~I?_I!~;,'~9uarei -.wilk~s;'Barre?~~_~.'" '?<,<,-,:,- >::' -_,j'::L-':'::, .:: 

'p~f~~~~ -Wi~hl~~" fo:_ p~~s~~t : te~fim~nY" ~Lt~er h~,~;ih~"~ho,~id! corta~,'Ale~ Haa!;;, P.o." Box.-8468,:Harrisburg, !=,AJ7105','; ~nn,7~7."9'49:S; ()rC' ,:- ',',- ~;j;- ,', -: ',--.. 'alehaa~@pa,~ov to re,serve- a" tiD1e.' I,; ':by, 12:QO':,lim,:, 'on~-January',2]/"2013" no ,person nas_ reql,.lf;!sfed toJestify'at the':heari[lg,,:;th~'h'eair:irig:-will :be 

cancelled. If, the, hea~in9 fs,:~t_ancefled, the,::Dep;;irtment' "wilt-' notifY: fhe -pUbliG __ on '.the Bure_au-()f Alr-Qua'litY,webpage,', http://w;NW;d.ep:s:tate.pa:usJ: , .. d~P/i:fep~tClteJairWasteJag/d¢fa:ljlt.ht!TI. '«itrj,~s~es ,ShQu,fct,-Keep.'teS'ti.m .. on., to' ten mInutes and should proVlae two written-'coples._of,thelr-_staternent-at thebeari'ng." ',-, -,"'" ';- '- ',i,~':- - --" - "--'' '- '1,1 

" P~rsons 'with:' 'a' ,dis~bflitY_',whQ::wish ,to -attend _th~',h,earin~~.a~_ij' i"eqtjire;"a_~ 

auxiliarv. 'aid" :,se. rvi.~e: or .,Pth .. e .. ' .. ac.". omm.Od.al.'io. n,jo.,-iPan ...iC.iPa .. te., Irr.::t .. ~. e proceeding'should contact Alex Haas, aH7l-7J-787,~,9~95;'orf: -', ':- :,_,_-_,'-i-,,:_, -, 

_alehaas@pa .. 90v.'TDD:_users may -,contact -the:AT&, T:R_el,ay_-S,erv.ice -af"" 

(809)- 65~,.598~ to' '~,iSCUS~ '~9W>th~-:- .DepartlJ}e,~t,:, _c,an' :b~,~t'-ac_S;0n:'n,:'_<?da~7: fhelr _needs._ - ',' _, >!'; :.. ' '_; ,- -:'"" ' -:::;,,-,~,,-, '_-,c, ~ ,', _': :;, 

The" Departmenf-must, 'receiv~-':'~orrHlients': 'no lat~F', than ':.h~i1uarY~2~, '20f4. 

'Written _<:o"mments should- be"_sent, to :the atJe_nfior:r'-Qf':Kirif Dalal;, 'Chlef~ 

Division _'of -Air, R,eso,urce' 'Mattc.j'gern~l"1ti Burea1,l-_0t.- Ai(Ql,J'ality" P .0.: ,Box 8468, Harrisburgj PA 17105-8468, _ oj" -bY' e-ma_ik,atK~,a_lal@pa.gov; Use 

'ABEArea_MVEB-Revisions')n':the- subied-lll"1e>"-'::j-:.','- "'" - ,!; 

-- - . ".' - ., :,' ... E CH~ISTQPHE" AB"UZZQ, < :_ .. -'-'" ,:_, "", : ,;'," ' , i~: _,_Adin9-Seore~arv 

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Page 1/1 

careerbuilder.oom aparf~ IHomeFin~~TRJ HlJ,~,~ ~<1v,l."j''"''''''''_ 
E. Christopher Abruzzo    Tom Corbett

Secretary    Governor

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 

FINAL 

Volume I 

State Implementation Plan Revision: NOX Motor 

Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the 

MOVES2010a Model 

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE) 

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area 

February 2014 

Bureau of Air Quality 

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection 

P.O. Box 8468 

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468 

717-787-9495 
   

[This page intentionally left blank.] 
i 

Table of Contents

VOLUME I 

1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW OF GROUND LEVEL OZONE 1 

 1.1. 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards 1 

 1.2. ABE Area and Ozone SIP Revisions 2 

 1.3. EPA Requirements for Developing and Revising Maintenance Plans 4 

 1.4. Maintenance Plan Demonstration and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets 6 

 1.5. Non-Mobile Inventory Review 7 

2. SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS 9 

 2.1. Point Source Category Emissions 9 

 2.1.1. Control Measures 9 

 2.1.2. Growth Estimates in the Original ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan 10 

 2.1.3. Point Source Category Conclusion 10 

 2.2. Area Source Category Emissions 12 

 2.2.1. Control Measures 12 

 2.2.2. Growth Estimates in the 2006 Maintenance Plan 12 

 2.2.3. Growth Estimates in MARAMA 2011 Regional Modeling Effort 14 

 2.2.4. Marcellus Shale Emissions 15 

 2.2.5. Area Source Category Conclusion 15 

 2.3. Nonroad Source Category Emissions 15 

 2.3.1. Control Measures 15 

 2.3.2. Growth Estimates 16 

 2.3.3. Nonroad Source Category Conclusion 16 

 2.4. Highway Source Category Emissions 16 

 2.4.1. Control Measures 16 

 2.4.2. Growth Estimates 17 

 2.4.3. Mobile Source Category Conclusion 18 

3. SAFETY MARGINS 18 

4. MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGET FOR TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY 

 19 

5. CONCLUSION 20 

VOLUME II 

 TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT – SEE VOLUME II TABLE OF CONTENTS 
ii 

TABLES 

 Table 1: ABE Area 2012 Design Values 5 

 Table 2a: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Calculated with MOVES2010a for NOX

and with MOBILE6.2 for VOC for Lehigh Valley MPO (Lehigh and 

Northampton Counties) 6 

 Table 2b: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Calculated with MOVES2010a for NOX

and with MOBILE6.2 for VOC for NEPA MPO (Carbon County) 7 

 Table 3: Revised ABE NOX Emissions from 2004 to 2018 9 

 Table 4: 2009 Point Source Emissions – Maintenance Plan Estimates Versus Actual 

 11 

 Table 5: 2018 Point Source Emissions – Maintenance Plan Estimates Versus Revised 

2018 Emissions 11 

 Table 6: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory 

Updates from 2002 to 2009 13 

 Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory 

Updates from 2009 to 2018 14 

 Table 8: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a 18 

 Table 9a: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets – Lehigh Valley MPO 19 

 Table 9b: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets – NEPA MPO 20 

APPENDICES 

 Appendix C: Maintenance Plan Update for the ABE (Carbon, Lehigh, and Northampton 

Counties) 1997 Eight-Hour Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle Emission 

Budget Revisions Using MOVES2010a – See Appendix C Table of 

Contents 

ATTACHMENTS 

 Attachment 1: Volume II Tables 2 and 5 in Excel Format 
- 1 - 

1. Introduction and Overview of Ground-Level Ozone 

Maintaining concentrations of ground-level ozone below the health-based 8-hour ozone national 

ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) is important because ozone is a serious human health 

threat and can cause damage to important food crops, forests, and wildlife. 

Repeated exposure to ozone pollution may cause a variety of adverse health effects for both 

healthy people and those with existing conditions including: difficulty breathing, chest pains, 

coughing, nausea, throat irritation, and congestion. Ozone exposure can exacerbate bronchitis, 

heart disease, emphysema and asthma, and reduce lung capacity. Asthma is a significant and 

growing threat to children and adults. Ozone can aggravate asthma, causing more asthma 

attacks, increased use of medication, more medical treatment and more frequent visits to hospital 

emergency clinics. Because ozone pollution usually forms in hot weather, anyone who spends 

time outdoors in the summer may be affected, particularly children, the elderly, outdoor workers 

and people exercising. Children are most at risk from exposure to ozone because they are active 

outside during the summertime when ozone levels are highest. 

Ozone is one of the most pervasive and detrimental pollutants known to affect vegetation, 

causing more injury to trees and crops than any other air pollutant in the United States. Ozone 

interferes with photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert water and sunlight to food. 

Ozone makes plants more susceptible to disease, insects, other pollutants and harsh weather. It 

damages the foliage of trees and other plants, ruining the landscapes of cities, parks, forests, and 

recreation areas. Research has shown that current ozone concentrations result in reductions in 

wood growth of over 10 percent in forests of the Northeast United States. There is strong 

scientific evidence showing that current levels of ozone are reducing crop yields, particularly in 

sensitive species such as soybean, cotton, and peanuts. Annual crop loss alone from ozoneaffected soybeans in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio has been calculated to fall between $199 million 

and $346 million. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated national 

crop yield losses due to ozone in excess of $1 billion annually. One of the key components of 

ozone, oxides of nitrogen, contributes to fish kills and algae blooms in sensitive waterways, such 

as the Chesapeake Bay. 

Ozone is not emitted directly to the atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical reactions 

between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOX) in the presence of 

sunlight. The long, hot, humid days of summer are particularly conducive to ozone formation, so 

ozone levels are of concern primarily during the months of May through September. The 

primary sources of man-made VOCs and NOX, the ozone precursors, are the evaporation of fuels 

and solvents (gasoline and consumer products), combustion of fuels (motor vehicles, power 

plants and non-road engines), and industrial processes. 

1.1. 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards 

In July 1997, the EPA established identical primary and secondary 8-hour ozone NAAQS at a 

concentration of 0.08 parts per million (ppm), based on the 3-year average of the annual fourthhighest daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations measured in the ambient air at each 
- 2 - 

monitored location. Implementation of the standards was delayed due to litigation. In April 

2004, EPA designated the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE) Area, which consists of Carbon, 

Lehigh and Northampton counties, as nonattainment for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, based 

on ambient air quality monitoring data collected from 2001-2003 (69 FR 23858; April 30, 2004). 

The ABE Area was one of seventeen areas in Pennsylvania designated as an 8-hour ozone 

nonattainment area for the 1997 ozone NAAQS. 

On March 12, 2008, the EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone to 0.075 ppm, averaged over 

8 hours, to provide even greater protection for children, other at-risk populations and the 

environment against the array of ozone-induced adverse health and welfare effects 

(73 FR 16436; March 27, 2008). On May 21, 2012, the EPA published a final rule for the 2008 

8-hour ozone NAAQS, implementing the nonattainment area classification approach and 

attainment deadlines, and revoking the 1997 ozone NAAQS for the purpose of transportation 

conformity (77 FR 30160). The EPA proposed an additional implementation rule for the 2008 

ozone NAAQS on June 6, 2013, to address State Implementation Plan (SIP) and related 

requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS (78 FR 34178). The ozone standard is currently 

undergoing its statutory five- year review and it is anticipated that EPA will promulgate a heathbased ozone standard between 0.060 and 0.070 ppm in 2014. Pennsylvania could have 

additional areas that do not meet this anticipated revised ozone standard. 

The promulgation of a new ozone standard does not affect the need for this revision to the 

approved maintenance plan for the ABE Area (ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan) under the 1997 

ozone NAAQS. 

1.2. ABE Area and Ozone SIP Revisions 

On June 26, 2007, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (Department) 

submitted a SIP revision (ABE Redesignation Request) to the EPA requesting redesignation of 

the ABE Area to attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS. The Department concurrently 

submitted a SIP revision (ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan) to the EPA that included a 

maintenance plan based on the attainment and continued long-term attainment of the 1997 ozone 

NAAQS for the ABE Area. The maintenance plan included the 2002 baseline inventory and 

motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEB(s)) to be used for purposes of transportation conformity. 

The Department submitted supplemental inventory material to the EPA on August 9, 2007. 

The EPA’s transportation conformity regulation, found at 40 CFR Part 93, Subpart A and 

incorporated by reference in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 127, Subchapter J (relating to general 

conformity), requires that the transportation plan, transportation improvement program (TIP), 

and projects not from a conforming transportation plan and TIP must be consistent with the 

MVEBs in the applicable air quality SIP. This criterion is satisfied if the state can demonstrate 

that emissions of the pollutants or pollutant precursors for which the area is in nonattainment or 

maintenance, and for which the applicable SIP contains MVEBs approved or deemed adequate 

by the EPA, are less than or equal to the MVEBs established in the applicable SIP or SIP 

submission. 
- 3 - 

The metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) for the area, the Northeastern Pennsylvania 

Alliance (NEPA) MPO (Carbon County) and the Lehigh Valley MPO (Lehigh and Northampton 

Counties), ensure that emissions resulting from their respective TIPs are less than the MVEBs in 

the SIP by completing periodic conformity determinations, which are subject to public comment. 

MPOs1

 are established by federal regulation. In the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan and ABE 

Ozone Redesignation Request, the NEPA MPO was identified as a rural planning organization 

(RPO). Due to increases in population, the NEPA RPO was designated as an MPO, effective 

March 27, 2013. For the purposes of transportation conformity, the Department considers RPOs 

to perform the same function as MPOs for areas that do not meet the population requirements for 

establishing a MPO. The transportation conformity regulations (40 CFR § 93.124(d)) allow a 

SIP to establish motor vehicle budgets for each MPO or RPO, if a nonattainment area includes 

more than one MPO or RPO. Separate MVEBs were proposed for the MPO and RPO in the 

ABE Area in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan (NEPA was an RPO in Maintenance Plan). The 

EPA approved all of the components of the ABE Redesignation Request and the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan, including the MVEBs, on March 4, 2008, (73 FR 11557) and redesignated the 

ABE Area to attainment for the 2008 8-hour ozone standard. 

The approved MVEBs included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan were estimated using the 

EPA-approved highway emissions model in effect at that time, the Highway Mobile Source 

Emission Factor Model version 6.2 (MOBILE6.2). The MVEBs in the ABE Ozone Maintenance 

Plan included emission budgets for both NOX and VOC. On March 2, 2010, the EPA released a 

new mobile source emissions model called the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator 2010 

(MOVES2010). Any new transportation conformity analysis started after March 2, 2013, must 

use the most up-to-date version of MOVES. 

EPA issued the MOVES2010b version of the model and its associated guidance in April 2012. 

EPA considers both MOVES2010a and MOVES2010b to be minor revisions to MOVES2010 

that do not significantly affect the results of modeling criteria pollutant estimates for highway 

vehicles. References to “MOVES” in the remainder of this document relate to all of the 

approved versions of the model. The highway vehicle emissions modeling for this SIP revision 

was already developed significantly using MOVES 2010a. By the time that version 2010b was 

issued, using MOVES2010b would have been impractical. 

Compared to MOBILE6.2, the MOVES model estimates higher NOX emissions and, in some 

ozone maintenance areas, higher VOC emissions being produced by highway vehicles, 

depending on the model’s inputs. Emissions of NOX estimated using MOVES will always be 

greater for transportation planning than the NOX emissions accounted for in the MVEBs, which 

were estimated using MOBILE6.2. As a result, comparing emissions from the MOVES model to 

the MVEB included in the approved maintenance plan would not allow local and regional 

transportation planning agencies to meet the requirements of transportation conformity; the 

emissions budget in the maintenance plan would be exceeded and transportation planning could 

be adversely affected. Therefore, the Department is updating the MVEBs for the ABE Area 

using the newer EPA-approved emissions model, MOVES2010a. 

                                                            

1 23 CFR §450.300‐450.336  
- 4 - 

It is important to mention that higher emission estimates calculated by MOVES2010a do not 

mean that emissions from vehicles dramatically increased. The MOVES model better estimates 

emissions that are already being produced by vehicles. Consequently, the ability of the area to 

maintain the standard will not be affected by using estimates produced by the new model. 

1.3. EPA Requirements for Developing and Revising Maintenance Plans 

The EPA-approved ABE Redesignation Request is consistent with the September 4, 1992, EPA 

memorandum written by John Calcagni, Director, Air Quality Management Division, entitled, 

Procedures for Processing Requests to Redesignate Areas to Attainment. For the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan, the Department produced an emissions inventory for NOX, VOC, and carbon 

monoxide (CO) for 2004, the attainment year, which included ambient air quality monitoring 

data that showed emissions that met the 1997 ozone NAAQS in the ABE Area. The inventory 

was based on a “typical summer day,” as required by the EPA. The Department developed an 

emissions inventory for 2018 that demonstrated that the area would meet the 1997 ozone 

NAAQS for a 10-year period following redesignation of the area to attainment. The emissions 

inventory for 2018, a maintenance year, showed that emissions of NOX, VOC, and CO in the 

ABE Area would not exceed emissions that occurred in 2004. The maintenance year is a year at 

least 10 years in the future that a state chooses to demonstrate that emissions over a 10-year 

period of analysis will not lead to an exceedance of the standard. A state does this by showing 

that emissions in the maintenance year are less than emissions in the attainment year. 

An emissions inventory in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan showed that emissions in 2009, the 

interim year, did not exceed emissions in 2004, the attainment year. The 2009 and 2018 

inventories both considered future growth projected from a 2002 baseline year, and included 

emission reductions from permanent and enforceable control measures. 

This SIP revision updates highway emissions estimates using the newer MOVES2010a model. 

The Department need not update emissions estimates for nonroad sources for several reasons. 

For one, the growth assumptions for emissions from nonroad sources in the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan for the year 2009 were greater than the documented growth that actually 

occurred from 2002 to 2009. Additionally, newer, updated emission growth projections to 2018 

for nonroad sources are less than emission growth projections for these sources in the ABE 

Ozone Maintenance Plan. A few indicators of growth used to project the area source emissions 

inventory in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan were less than actual area source growth factors 

used in this SIP revision. This SIP revision also includes linearly interpolated 2018 point source 

emission estimates derived from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association 

(MARAMA) 2011 effort for modeling ambient particulate matter concentrations, which are used 

to revise the 2018 projected emissions in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

Ambient air quality monitoring results for the ABE Area demonstrate continued attainment of 

the 1997 ozone NAAQS (0.08 ppm, with rounding 84 parts per billion), as shown in Table 1. 

Monitoring results for 2012 indicate an average design value of 75 ppb. 
- 5 - 

Table 1: ABE Area 2012 Design Values 

Monitor 2010 

4th

Highest 

2011 

4th

Highest 

2012 

4th

Highest 

3-Year 

Average or 

Design 

Value*

Allentown 42-077-0004 80 ppb 79 ppb 75 ppb 78 ppb 

Freemansburg 42-095-0025 82 ppb 76 ppb 73 ppb 77 ppb 

Easton 42-095-8000 69 ppb 72 ppb 73 ppb 71 ppb 

 *A “design value” is the annual fourth highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone concentration, averaged over three years. 

The EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality developed guidance titled, Policy Guidance 

on the Use of MOVES2010 and Subsequent Minor Revisions for State Implementation Plan 

Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes, (MOVES2010 guidance) 

EPA 420-B-12-010, April 2012. This guidance describes requirements for SIP revisions. For 

maintenance demonstrations, areas can have a revised motor vehicle emissions inventory and 

budget using MOVES without revising emissions for other sectors included in the applicable SIP 

or completing additional modeling if: 

 The SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when the previous motor vehicle 

emissions inventories are replaced with inventories generated by MOVES2010a; and 

 The state can document that growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor 

vehicle sources continue to be valid and minor updates do not change the overall 

conclusions of the SIP. 

The EPA further states that if both of the criteria are met, the state can simply re-submit the 

original maintenance plan with the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories, using the most 

current version of the MOVES model. However, if either criterion is not met, the emissions 

categories in the maintenance plan that have changed must be brought up to date. 

Since one of the criteria listed above is not met for point source emissions, this SIP revision 

includes information addressing the recommendations described in the MOVES2010 policy 

guidance, listed here: 

 Demonstration that the 1997 ozone NAAQS approved maintenance plan continues to 

meet applicable requirements with the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories, as 

calculated by the most recently approved MOVES model, and recalculation of the 

attainment year, interim year and maintenance year MVEBs with the latest planning 

assumptions, including documentation of the updated assumptions; 

 Review of the point, area, and nonroad emissions inventories for the interim year and 

maintenance year to determine if growth and control strategy assumptions have changed 

and, if so, development of an analysis to determine if these changes affect the conclusion 
- 6 - 

of the maintenance plan that air quality will remain compliant with the 1997 ozone 

NAAQS; and

 Assessment to confirm that excess emissions exist and the quantification of these excess 

emissions for use in the safety margin applied to the MVEBs.

1.4. Maintenance Plan Demonstration and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets 

Tables 2a and 2b show the revised 2004, 2009 and 2018 NOX MVEBs calculated using the latest 

planning assumptions for the ABE Area using MOVES2010a. In Tables 2a and 2b, only NOX

emission budgets are revised in this SIP revision. The existing MOBILE6.2-based VOC MVEBs 

are sufficient for future conformity determinations and are included here for reference only. 

Assumptions used in the MOVES2010a modeling, including model inputs, growth assumptions 

and modeling methodology, are provided in Appendix C. Highway vehicle emissions generated 

by MOVES2010a show a clear, downward trend in emissions in future years. 

Table 2a: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Calculated with MOVES2010a for NOX and 

with MOBILE6.2 for VOC for Lehigh Valley MPO (Lehigh and Northampton Counties) 

Year 

NOX Emissions 

(tons/day) 

(MOVES2010a)

VOC Emissions 

(tons/day) 

(MOBILE6.2)

2004 Attainment Year 49.83 26.31 

2009 Modeled Emissions 37.48 19.59 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins2 1.70 1.06 

2009 Interim Year Budget 39.18 20.65 

2018 Modeled Emissions 18.71 11.33 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 1.70 1.11 

2018 Maintenance Year Budgets 20.41 12.44 

                                                            

2

 A “safety margin” is the amount of emissions by which the total projected emissions from all sources of a given 

pollutant are less than the total emissions that would satisfy the applicable requirement for reasonable further 

progress, attainment, or maintenance (40 CFR §93.101). The state may designate a portion of these emissions for 

use by the MPO or Department of Transportation (DOT) as a safety margin to be used for transportation projects. 

See 40 CFR §93.124(a) for application of a safety margin. The Department also applies safety margins for planning 

areas with RPOs. 
- 7 - 

Table 2b: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Calculated with MOVES2010a 

for NOX and MOBILE 6.2 for VOC for NEPA MPO (Carbon County) 

Year 

NOX Emissions 

(tons/day) 

(MOVES2010a)

VOC 

Emissions 

(tons/day) 

(MOBILE6.2)

2004 Attainment Year 9.55 4.23 

2009 Modeled Emissions 6.60 3.21 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 

(see Footnote 2 on pg 6) 0.30 0.23 

2009 Interim Year Budget 6.90 3.44 

2018 Modeled Emissions 3.24 1.95 

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 0.30 0.31 

2018 Maintenance Year Budgets 3.54 2.26 

1.5. Non-Mobile Inventory Review 

The EPA, in its MOVES2010 guidance, states that revisions to existing SIPs and budgets must 

continue to meet applicable requirements under the Clean Air Act. A maintenance plan revised 

to take into account new emission estimates due to an update in the highway model must 

demonstrate that attainment of the standard continues, even with updated control measures and 

growth estimates. This SIP revision includes increases in the maintenance plan’s NOX emission 

estimates for the attainment, interim and maintenance years, resulting from revising highway 

emissions using MOVES instead of the MOBILE6.2 model, and accounting for emissions of 

point sources using the latest planning assumptions and growth estimates. In this SIP revision, 

area and nonroad source inventories are not being revised. Total emissions in the years 2009 and 

2018 cannot exceed the emissions in the 2004 attainment year inventory. The Department 

concludes that the ABE Area will continue to demonstrate attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS 

because total emissions of NOX in the interim year and maintenance year will be less than the 

2004 attainment year inventory for NOX. Developing a revised highway inventory for CO is 

unnecessary for this SIP revision because CO emissions decrease using MOVES in place of the 

MOBILE6.2 model. VOC emissions are not being updated because VOC emission estimates for 

the ABE Area do not increase to the point at which the existing motor vehicle emission budget is 

exceeded when using the MOVES model for transportation conformity. 

Growth and control strategy assumptions have changed for all of the emission categories since 

the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was approved. The changes in these assumptions have 

generally decreased forecasted emissions in future years. A severe economic recession occurred 

since the maintenance plan was approved and employment was greatly depressed, falling short of 
- 8 - 

the employment projections in the maintenance plan for the year 2009. More controls of source 

categories have been implemented at both the federal and state level. The nonroad NOX

emission inventory and the area source NOX inventory are not being revised for the interim and 

maintenance year in this SIP revision. The point source emission inventory is being updated. 

The Department compared updated growth estimates with growth assumptions and growth 

estimates in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. That analysis is included below. More detailed 

information can be found in Volume II: Technical Support Document. 

Some SIP revisions for certain areas in the Commonwealth will require the Department to update 

growth and strategy assumptions of point, area, and non-road sources. A number of areas in the 

Commonwealth are home to newly built point sources, such as electric generating units (EGUs). 

Some areas have experienced Marcellus Shale gas development, which has increased area source 

emissions. 

The EPA promulgated the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) in 2005 to control NOX and sulfur 

dioxide (SO2) emissions from EGUs (70 FR 25162; May 12, 2005 and later amendments). The 

U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit remanded CAIR in December 2008, without vacating 

it, in North Carolina v. EPA, 531 F.3d 896, modified, 550 F.9d 1176 (D.C. Cir. 2008). EPA 

developed the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) in 2011 to limit the transport of NOX and 

SO2, which could have changed projected emissions of point sources (76 FR 48208; 

Aug. 8, 2011 and later revisions). The court vacated CSAPR on August 21, 2012, however, and 

ordered EPA to continue administering CAIR pending the promulgation of a valid replacement. 

See EME Homer City Generation L.P. v. EPA, 696 F3.d 7 (D.C. Cir. 2012), rehearing denied, 

2013 U.S. App. LEXIS 1623 and 1624 (D.C. Cir. Jan. 24, 2013). On June 24, 2013, the 

Supreme Court of the United States accepted review of the case. Following the Circuit Court’s 

direction, CAIR remains in place pending the Supreme Court’s review. On November 19, 2012, 

EPA’s then-Assistant Administrator Gina McCarthy issued a memorandum stating that it is 

appropriate for EPA to rely on CAIR reductions as permanent and enforceable until court 

proceedings are resolved or, if the vacatur of CSAPR remains in place, until EPA promulgates a 

replacement rule and state plans for implementation of the replacement rule are approved. Some 

owners and operators of EGUs have responded to new economic and regulatory developments 

by closing coal-fired electric generation units or by switching fuels (to natural gas) at their 

facilities, which includes facilities in the ABE Area. 

Table 3 shows that emissions in the future, interim and maintenance years will not exceed overall 

emissions from all sources in 2004, the attainment year, even though highway emissions for NOX

are greater in the ABE Area when modeled by MOVES than when the emissions were estimated 

by MOBILE6.2 in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Actual emissions for the 2009 point 

sources, updated 2018 projected point source emissions, actual area source growth rates for 2002 

to 2009, and updated area source growth factors for 2009 to 2018 are included in this SIP 

revision and Technical Support Document (Volume II). Projected nonroad category emissions 

from the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan are used for 2009 and 2018 in this SIP revision. 

Projected nonroad sources do not need to be updated because emissions from these categories 

have not increased since the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was submitted to the EPA. 

Attainment of the 1997 ozone standard is maintained by showing that revised actual and 

projected growth for 2009 and 2018 does not increase overall future emissions included in the 
- 9 - 

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. This SIP revision demonstrates that growth assumptions in the 

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan generally forecast greater growth than what actually occurred or 

will occur in the major source category segments. 

Table 3: Revised ABE NOX Emissions from 2004 to 2018 

NOX in tons/day 

Year Point Area Nonroad Mobile Total 

2004 58.8 2.9 12.9 59.4 134.0 

2009 27.0 3.1 11.0 44.1 85.2 

Δ(2004-2009) -31.8 0.2 -1.90 -15.3 -48.8 

2018 26.1 3.2 6.6 22.0 59.9 

Δ(2004-2018) -32.7 0.3 -6.30 -37.4 -74.1 

2. Source Category Emissions 

2.1. Point Source Category Emissions

2.1.1. CONTROL MEASURES

At the time of the development of the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, many large sources were 

affected by the requirements of the federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). Pennsylvania 

implemented NOX control programs, including implementation of CAIR, which control NOX

from large industrial boilers, internal combustion engines, electric generating units, and cement 

kilns. Another control measure took effect for NOX emissions for point sources after the ABE 

Ozone Maintenance Plan was approved. New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) affected 

new engines installed at facilities after January 1, 2011, by requiring internal combustion engines 

to meet a 50 percent reduction in NOX. These changes to NSPS requirements will reduce point 

source NOX emissions in 2018. 
- 10 - 

2.1.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES IN THE ORIGINAL ABE OZONE MAINTENANCE PLAN

Annual point source inventories using historical emissions data reported to the Department by 

point source facilities were included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. The Department 

developed an emissions inventory of point sources for calendar years 2002 and 2004. The 2002 

point source emissions inventory represents a time when the ABE Area did not meet the 1997 

8-hour ozone NAAQS. The 2004 point source inventory showed emissions that occurred during 

2004, the attainment year for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. 

Emission projections for the point source sector for 11 states, including Pennsylvania, and the 

District of Columbia, were prepared for MARAMA by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc. 

(MACTEC). Future year projections were developed by MACTEC so that states could use the 

point source inventories in their SIPs. Emission projections were prepared for years 2009 and 

2018. 

For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future, the point source inventory in the ABE 

Ozone Maintenance Plan is divided into two subsectors – the EGU sector and the non-EGU 

sector. Different projection methods were used for those two sectors. For the EGU sector, the 

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU) used the Integrating Planning Model 

(IPM) to project future electric generation, as well as to calculate the impact of control programs 

on future emission levels. The EGU modeling data was made available by MANE-VU to its 

member states, including Pennsylvania. The ABE Area has six CAIR-affected (EGU) emission 

sources. For the non-EGU sector, growth factors were developed by using the EPA’s Economic 

Growth Analysis System Version 5.0 (EGAS 5.0). The U.S. Department of Energy fuel 

consumption forecasts were used to replace default values in EGAS 5.0. Additionally, statesupplied population, employment, and other emission projection data were used to update and 

enhance the EGAS 5.0 default values. 

GenOn Energy announced in February 2012 that it intends to decommission and shut down the 

Portland Generating Station, located in Northampton County, effective January 2015. Because 

the status of this facility could potentially change, the emissions from the facility are included in 

the actual 2009 and projected 2018 emission inventories for point sources. If the facility shuts 

down as planned, it will be removed from future inventories submitted to EPA that are created 

after the shutdown date. 

2.1.3. POINT SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION

This SIP revision revises the projected NOX emissions for 2009 in the ABE Ozone Maintenance 

Plan with actual emissions for point sources in 2009, because the actual emissions are readily 

available and allow easy comparison between the projected emissions in the maintenance plan 

and the actual emissions. The Department assessed point source emissions by comparing the 

actual emissions inventory data submitted to the Department by owners of point sources for 2009 

to the estimated 2009 NOX emissions from point sources in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan overestimated point source emissions for 2009. Table 4 

shows that the projected point source emissions of NOX in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan 
- 11 - 

were 31.3 tons per day more than actual 2009 point source emissions. Actual emissions of NOX

declined significantly from 2004 to 2009, even when compared to the slow growth in emissions 

forecasted in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

Table 4: 2009 Point Source Emissions 

Maintenance Plan Estimates versus Actual 

2009 Emissions NOX 

(tons/day)

Maintenance Plan Estimate 58.3 

Actual 27.0 

In this SIP revision, the Department is revising the 2018 point source inventory in the ABE 

Ozone Maintenance Plan by using emissions from the inventory developed by MARAMA. 

Because the updated inventory produced by MARAMA uses different years for the baseline and 

projected inventories, and different surrogates to estimate growth than were used in the ABE 

Ozone Maintenance Plan, comparison between growth factors used to produce the two 

inventories is difficult. The MARAMA projected inventory estimated emissions for the years 

2017 and 2020 from a baseline 2007 emissions inventory. In order to obtain emission estimates 

for the 2018 maintenance year for this SIP revision, a straight line interpolation between 2007 

and 2020 was used. Projected point source NOX emissions in 2018 using the MARAMA 

estimates are still well below the 2018 projected point source emissions in the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan, as shown in Table 5, and thus show that projected point source emissions in 

2018 will fall below the 2004 (attainment year) emission levels. 

Table 5: 2018 Point Source Emissions 

Maintenance Plan Estimates versus Revised 2018 Emissions 

2018 Emissions NOX

(tons/day)

2018 Maintenance Plan Estimate 66.6 

2018 Revised Estimate (MARAMA 

Inventory) 

26.1 
- 12 - 

2.2. AREA SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS

2.2.1. CONTROL MEASURES

The area sector includes, but is not limited to, such diverse emissions source categories as: 

surface coating; commercial and consumer solvent use; residential heating; open burning; traffic 

line painting; and landfill gases. Emissions are produced from a wide number of sources for 

which actual emissions or direct indicators of emissions are not available. One control measure 

took effect for NOX emissions for area sources after the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was 

approved. New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) affected new engines installed at 

facilities after January 1, 2011, by requiring a 50 percent reduction in NOX emissions. These 

changes to NSPS requirements will have some beneficial effect on area sources by 2018.

2.2.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES IN THE 2006 MAINTENANCE PLAN

Area source emission growth factors in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan were developed by 

using the default configuration in EGAS 5.0. EGAS 5.0 used the U.S. Department of Energy 

Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) fuel use projections. In this SIP revision, the 

AEO2005 fuel consumption forecasts were used to replace AEO2004 forecasts. State-supplied 

population and employment data were used to replace default data, when the state-specific data 

was available. Growth estimates were represented by growth factors for each area source 

classification code (SCC) for each county. 

County-level population data for 2000, and projections for 2010 and 2020 from the Pennsylvania 

State Data Center, http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/, were provided to derive growth factors for this SIP 

revision. This data were interpolated to obtain growth factors for projecting emissions from 

2002 to 2009 for SCCs that are population based. General employment data for 21 counties or 

areas for 2000, and projections to 2010 and 2020, were used. This data were also interpolated to 

estimate growth factors for projecting from 2002 to 2009 and 2018 for nine area source 

categories. For all other area source categories, AEO2005 forecasts were used for projecting 

emissions from area source fuel combustion, when available. If AEO2005 forecasts are not 

available, EGAS 5.0 default factors were used. 

The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan relied upon many different types of socioeconomic indicators 

that served as surrogates to actual sales data to estimate emissions from the area source sector 

when actual sales data was not available. Population, employment, fuel use and housing data are 

some of the surrogates used to estimate emissions. Methodologies for estimating some 

emissions from some area sources were updated by the EPA in the time since EPA approved the 

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, but, because the emissions change similarly for the attainment, 

interim and maintenance years, the changes will not result in a significant difference between the 

attainment year’s emissions and the maintenance year’s emissions. As can be seen from Tables 

6 and 7, with the exception of natural gas commercial boilers and residential natural gas use, 

emissions would decrease from area sources, since actual growth rates from 2002 to 2009 and 

projected growth rates from 2009 to 2018 are lower or nearly the same when compared to the 
- 13 - 

growth rates used in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Additionally, in Table 7 the growth rate 

for the Commercial Anthracite Coal category is listed as zero. This reflects an error in the ABE 

Ozone Maintenance Plan where this category was counted in both the area and point source 

inventories. When actual emissions for 2009 were reviewed, the area source value became zero 

after subtracting out point sources using EPA’s inventory development methodology. The 

metrics presented in Tables 6 and 7 serve as growth surrogates for most source classification 

codes (SCCs) in the area source category in the maintenance plan, which account for a large 

majority of the emissions in the area source inventory. 

Table 6: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in 

Maintenance Plan and Inventory Updates from 2002 to 2009 

Metric Maintenance 

Plan 

Surrogate 

Estimates 

(2006) 

Actual 

Growth 

(Census 

Data) 

2009 Population * 1.0490 1.0878 

2009 Total Employment 1.0256 1.0102 

2009 Commercial Boilers Natural Gas 1.0106 1.0890 

2009 Commercial Boilers, Distillate 1.0731 0.9968 

2009 Commercial Boilers, Coal 1.0481 0.6636 

 *Growth for the year 2009 is computed from 2002 to 2009. 
- 14 - 

Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and 

Inventory Updates from 2009 to 2018 

Metric Maintenance 

Plan Growth 

(2009-2018)*

Revised 

Growth 

from 

MARAMA 

Inventory 

(2009-2018)* 

Population 1.0595 1.0373 

Employees 1.0335 1.0319 

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9983 0.9136 

Anthracite, Commercial 0.9865 0.0000 

All Combustor Types, Distillate Oil, 

Residential 

0.9598 0.8226 

Boilers and Internal Combustion 

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 

1.0521 1.0687 

All Combustor Types, Natural Gas, 

Residential 

1.0181 1.0188 

*Growth for the year 2018 is given as a factor estimating growth from 2009 to 2018. 

Due to different time ranges used for growth estimates in the maintenance plan and more 

recent inventory data, growth based on 2002 was impossible to estimate. This method 

allows for a direct comparison. 

2.2.3. GROWTH ESTIMATES IN MARAMA 2011 REGIONAL MODELING EFFORT

The development of growth factors for the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort for area 

sources used one or a combination of the following as surrogates for growth: AEO2010, 

population data, or employment data. A direct comparison cannot be made between the growth 

factors based on AEO2005 or population in the original maintenance plan and this SIP revision 

which uses growth factors from MARAMA’s 2011 regional modeling effort. As years pass, 

different inventory methodologies are developed. This SIP revision uses the best possible 

method to compare emission growth factors developed using differing methodologies (See 

Volume II: Technical Support Document). The MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort 

developed growth factors for most SCCs using AEO2010 or county level population. 

Employment data was derived from North American Industry Classification System to the state 

level. Since employment data to the county level was not available from the MARAMA 2011 

modeling, state employment data was applied to all SCCs that use employment data and counties 

in this SIP revision. The recession reduced employment, which fell short of the projections in 

the maintenance plan for the year 2009. Starting from depressed employment levels in 2009, it is 

unlikely that employment projections in the maintenance plan will be exceeded in 2018, even if 

employment growth recovers to normal levels in the near future. 
- 15 - 

2.2.4. MARCELLUS SHALE EMISSIONS

Significant infrastructure development to extract Marcellus Shale natural gas in some 

Pennsylvania counties has occurred since the Department submitted the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan to EPA. Area source emissions result from the placement of drilling 

equipment, gathering lines and compressor stations. The eastern edge of the Marcellus Shale 

geologic formation lies under a portion of the ABE Area (Carbon County). The ABE Area has 

not experienced any Marcellus Shale development as of the submission of this SIP revision, but 

it is unknown if the ABE area will experience this development in the future. 

2.2.5. AREA SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION

Updated emission growth factors for fuel use, which produces NOX emissions, demonstrate that 

area source emission growth for 2002-2009 and 2009-2018 was less than predicted by the area 

source growth factors in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Therefore, area source emissions 

were not revised in this SIP revision because area source emissions are expected to be lower than 

predicted in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Estimates of NOX emissions from area sources 

in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan were slightly higher in both 2009 and 2018 (see Table 3) 

than the 2004 attainment year, but estimates of NOX emissions from all categories in the ABE 

Area are still well below the emissions in the attainment year. 

2.3. Nonroad Source Category Emissions 

2.3.1. CONTROL MEASURES

The nonroad category contains many different types of equipment. The Department used 

NONROAD2005 for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. All versions of the EPA’s NONROAD 

Model estimate emissions for over 200 types of engines and vehicles. Nonroad engines and 

vehicles can be used for such applications as construction, lawn and garden care, farming, and 

industrial applications. In addition, emissions from three types of activities – including aircraft, 

locomotive, and commercial marine vessel activities – are not estimated in the NONROAD 

Model but are in the nonroad category. In the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the 

NONROAD2005 model was used to estimate emissions of nonroad vehicles and engines. The 

model went through one major revision since it was used for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. 

NONROAD2008a is the latest version of this model. This new version of the model 

incorporates two reduction strategies that affect engines and vehicles in the nonroad sector: 

 Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine 

engines (See Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Locomotive Engines and 

Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder, 73 FR 25098; 

May 6, 2008); and 
- 16 - 

 The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and recreational marine rule 

(See Control of Emissions From Nonroad Spark-Ignition Engines and Equipment, 

73 FR 59034; October 8, 2008). 

For the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the Department modified files in the NONROAD Model, 

when state specific data was available, that affect emission categories such as residential lawn 

and garden and recreational marine vessels. 

2.3.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES

Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan as a result of additional controls mentioned above in Section 2.3.1, and other 

controls that have been phased in since 2004 for engines used in the nonroad sector. The fleet 

turnover that occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by 

newer equipment and vehicles that meet more stringent emission standards has continued to 

lower emissions in the nonroad sector since the late 1990s, and will continue to do so for the next 

10 years. Because of these controls, emission reductions occurred across all segments of the 

nonroad category, including construction equipment, farming equipment, locomotives, and lawn 

and garden equipment. Furthermore, the recession significantly lowered construction, railroad, 

aircraft, and industrial activity, and, consequently, lowered emissions. Even if growth returns to 

pre-recession levels, overall growth will likely remain lower than predicted in the maintenance 

plan up to the 2018 maintenance year. 

2.3.3. NONROAD SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION

The Department demonstrated that it is reasonable to assume that emissions growth for nonroad 

sources that has occurred, and is occurring, is less than the growth forecasted in the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan for NOX for both maintenance years: 2009 and 2018. The Department 

compared growth estimates between those used in NONROAD2005 and NONROAD2008a, and 

took into account fleet turnover and the effects of the recession. Emissions of NOX from the 

nonroad source sector have not increased as a result of any new activity or update in 

methodology. Therefore, no revisions to the nonroad source sector for NOX emissions are 

necessary. 

2.4. Highway Source Category Emissions

2.4.1. CONTROL MEASURES

Assumptions for vehicle emission standards have not been changed significantly in the modeled 

analysis from when the Department submitted the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan to EPA. 

Pennsylvania began implementation of California emission standards, which are incorporated by 
- 17 - 

reference in Pennsylvania regulations, in 2005 for diesel-powered heavy-duty trucks, and in 2008 

for passenger cars and light-duty trucks. 

In January 2012, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved significant revisions to 

its regulations for criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars, light-duty 

trucks and medium-duty vehicles. The amendments, referred to as LEV III, were approved by 

California’s Office of Administrative Law (OAL) on August 7, 2012, and will become effective 

in model year (MY) 2015 for criteria pollutants and in MY 2017 for greenhouse gases. The 

requirements were automatically incorporated by reference as part of the Pennsylvania Clean 

Vehicles Program, to the extent the amendments apply to Pennsylvania’s program, under 

25 Pa. Code § 126.411. 

On August 28, 2012, the EPA and the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway 

Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a joint Final Rulemaking to extend the National 

Program of harmonized greenhouse gas and fuel economy standards to MYs 2017-2025 

passenger vehicles. On May 21, 2013, the EPA proposed emission standards for 

MYs 2017-2025 light duty, medium duty, and some heavy duty vehicles, referred to as Tier 3 

emission standards, as well as sulfur content standards for fuel in a proposed rulemaking 

(78 FR 29816). 

The mobile source modeling for this SIP revision was completed prior to the publication of the 

proposed Tier 3 standards, and, as a result, the impact of the proposed standards was not 

included in the modeling. The California LEV III rulemaking, the EPA-NHTSA National 

Program Final Rulemaking, and the EPA Tier III Proposed Rulemaking have not been analyzed 

as to their effect on future year emission estimates of NOX in this SIP revision. However, it is 

reasonable to assume that NOX emissions will decrease as these vehicles replace older vehicles 

during fleet turnover in Pennsylvania and the rest of the country. 

2.4.2. GROWTH ESTIMATES

Overall emissions from highway vehicles will continue to decrease as new vehicles take the 

place of older vehicles during normal fleet turnover. Fleet turnover is the greatest driver in 

lowering emissions from highway vehicles. Fleet turnover has been slower than forecast in the 

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. This is, in part, a result of the recent recession and its lingering 

effects. Other factors have some impact on emissions from the highway source category, such as 

changes in fleet age, vehicle miles traveled, and the fleet mix of vehicles. The fleet age is 

increasing as people operate their vehicles for a longer period of time. This will reduce the rate 

of fleet turnover and the reductions expected in emissions. It is difficult to compare vehicle 

miles traveled (VMT) in Pennsylvania between the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan and this SIP 

revision, because the method for estimating VMT has changed. Nationally, there was a slight 

decline in VMT during the recession. The percentage of vehicles in Pennsylvania that are lightduty trucks is also shrinking. Consumers are purchasing more passenger cars than light-duty 

trucks. Passenger cars tend to have lower emissions. 
- 18 - 

NOX emission estimates in this SIP revision were developed using MOVES2010a and the latest 

planning assumptions. Emissions have been estimated for 2004 (attainment year), 2009 and 

2018 (maintenance years). The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates in the ABE Ozone Maintenance 

Plan have been included in Table 8 to illustrate relative changes in emissions. 

Table 8: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a 

Pollutant 

Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions 

(tons/summer day) 

Revised MOVES2010a Emissions 

(tons/summer day) 

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018 

NOX 48.33 33.89 14.44 59.38 44.08 21.95 

VOC 30.54 22.80 13.28 N/A* N/A N/A 

*VOC emissions are not being revised in this SIP revision because the VOC MVEBs in the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan developed using MOBILE6.2 are sufficient and will be used for transportation conformity. 

Table 8 shows that the MOVES model estimates NOX emissions in 2009 and 2018 exceed the 

MOBILE6.2-derived emissions estimates in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. This would 

cause transportation planning emissions estimates using MOVES to exceed the MVEBs. The 

updated NOX MVEBs and approved VOC MVEBs provided in Tables 2a and 2b will help ensure 

that the MPOs in the ABE Area can demonstrate transportation conformity using MOVES2010a, 

while the emissions estimates still demonstrate that the ABE Area demonstrates attainment with, 

and continued maintenance of, the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. 

2.4.3. MOBILE SOURCE CATEGORY CONCLUSION

This SIP revision includes revised NOX MVEBs for the ABE Area using updated highway 

vehicle emissions estimates derived from MOVES. Appendix C of this SIP revision replaces 

Appendix C in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan in its entirety. Appendix C of this SIP revision 

combines sections C3 and C4, and deletes section C5 of Appendix C in the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. Appendix C of this SIP revision describes the highway modeling 

methodology necessary to produce accurate emission estimates from the MOVES model. 

3. Safety Margins 

A safety margin is the amount of emissions by which the total projected emissions from all 

sources of a given pollutant are less than the total emissions that would satisfy the applicable 

requirement for reasonable further progress, attainment, or maintenance (40 CFR §93.101). 

Table 3 shows that the emissions in the maintenance years, even when using the conservative 

emission estimates in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, for point, area and nonroad sectors, 

provide a significant safety margin for continued maintenance of the 1997 8-hour ozone 

NAAQS. 

Therefore, a portion of the safety margin is being allocated to the MVEBs for transportation 

projects (see Tables 2a and 2b) to help ensure that any future planning assumption updates will 

not negatively impact the area’s ability to demonstrate transportation conformity. Adequate 
- 19 - 

safety margins will also defer the need for future SIP revisions, where the purpose of the SIP 

revision is only to update numbers and not to document any actual emission reductions to the 

atmosphere. 

To help ensure that the transportation conformity process is not needlessly delayed, a 2.0 ton/day 

safety margin for NOX has been applied to the MVEB in 2009 and a 2.0 ton/day safety margin 

for NOX has been applied to the MVEB in 2018. The safety margins included in the VOC 

MVEBs are the safety margins included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan using 

MOBILE6.2. The ABE Area contains the Lehigh Valley MPO and the NEPA MPO. The safety 

margins are distributed between the two MPOs based on the percentage of emissions that each 

MPO contributes to the area total. All indications are that the 2009 and 2018 emission estimates 

for point, area and nonroad sources in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan are higher than any 

actual emissions for 2009 and revised estimates for 2018 in this SIP revision. Tables 2a and 2b 

quantitatively show that these safety margins will continue to allow the area to remain well 

below the 2004 attainment year emissions inventory cap, thereby ensuring that future air quality 

will continue to meet the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. 

4. Motor Vehicle Emission Budget for Transportation Conformity 

The Department proposes to establish budgets for highway emissions in order to ensure that 

transportation emissions do not impede clean air goals for the next decade and beyond. The 

information in Tables 9a and 9b, once EPA approves this SIP revision for the purposes of 

transportation conformity, will establish MVEBs for the ABE Area. The MVEBs are exhibited 

separately for the two MPOs in the ABE Area. 

Table 9a: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets – Lehigh Valley MPO 

Calendar Year Pollutant 

NOX VOC 

2009 35,542.68 kilograms/summer day 

39.1787 tons/summer day

18,731.92 kilograms/summer day 

20.6482 tons/summer day

2018 18,512.06 kilograms/summer day 

20.4058 tons/summer day

11,278.96 kilograms/summer day 

12.4328 tons/summer day
- 20 - 

Table 9b: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets – NEPA MPO 

Calendar Year Pollutant 

NOX VOC 

2009 6,257.55 kilograms/summer day 

6.8977 tons/summer day

3,118.21 kilograms/summer day 

3.4372 tons/summer day

2018 3,212.37 kilograms/summer day 

3.5410 tons/summer day

2,052.98 kilograms/summer day 

2.2630 tons/summer day

*Conversion factor used for Table 9a and 9b: 1kg = 2.2046 lbs 

5. Conclusion 

By examining actual and projected emissions, increased controls for all emissions categories, and 

evidence that actual emissions growth for point source, area source, and nonroad source 

categories has been less than the projected emissions growth for most sources in the approved 

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the Department has shown the conclusion in the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan that the ABE Area will continue to maintain the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS 

to be valid, even after updating the highway emissions estimates using the new EPA-approved 

MOVES model. Updating NOX emissions in the MVEB will not negatively affect the ABE 

Area’s ability to maintain the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. In this SIP revision, the Department 

has updated emissions of NOX that were included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan for point 

and highway sources. Additionally, the Department compared updated growth factors for NOX

for area sources with those that were included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, to show that 

growth was less than expected and that the area source inventory did not need to be revised. 

Emissions of nonroad sources were not updated because growth in emissions for those sources 

decreased or were unaffected.
E. Christopher Abruzzo    Tom Corbett

Secretary    Governor

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 

FINAL 

VOLUME II: Technical Support Document 

State Implementation Plan Revision: NOX Motor 

Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the 

MOVES2010a Model 

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE) 

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

February 2014 

Bureau of Air Quality 

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection 

P.O. Box 8468 

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468 

717-787-9495
[This page intentionally left blank.] 
i 

Contents 

Introduction 1 

Point Source Category Emissions 1 

 Point Source Category 2009 Emissions 2 

 Point Source Category 2018 Emissions 4 

Area Source Category Emissions 7 

 Area Source Category 2009 Emissions 7 

 Area Source Category 2018 Emissions 8 

Nonroad Source Category Emissions 10 

Highway Source Category Emissions 11 

Tables 

Table 1: Point Source Emissions for 2009 – SIP Estimated Versus Actual 2 

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NOX Point Source Inventory for the ABE Ozone Maintenance 

Area by Facility Source 2 

Table 3: ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan – Emission Estimates for 2018 4 

Table 4: SIP Revision – Revised Emissions Estimates of Point Sources for 2018 

(MARAMA 2007 Baseline and 2020 Projected Inventories) 5 

Table 5: MARAMA 2007 Annual Baseline and 2020 Projected NOX Point Source Inventories 

for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 5 

Table 6: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to 

Projected Growth in the ABE Area Maintenance Plan (2002-2009) 8 

Table 7: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to the 

Projected Growth in the ABE Area Maintenance Plan (2009-2018) 9 

Table 8: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a 12 
ii 

[This page intentionally left blank.] 
- 1 -

Introduction 

This Technical Support Document, prepared by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental 

Protection (Department), provides detailed information on the categories of point, area, nonroad, 

and highway sources of oxides of nitrogen (NOX) emission estimates and assumptions. Certain 

data shown in this document were used in the State Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance 

Plan and Base Year Inventory – Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE) Eight-Hour Ozone 

Nonattainment Area, which is hereafter referred to as the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Other 

data and assumptions outlined in the Technical Support Document are used in this State 

Implementation Plan (SIP) revision to the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, entitled, State 

Implementation Plan Revision: NOX Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the 

MOVES2010a Model Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE) 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance 

Area, hereafter referred to as the SIP revision. The SIP revision demonstrates that replacing 

highway emissions estimates using the MOVES2010 model instead of using the MOBILE6.2 

model to generate highway emissions estimates will not cause emissions from all sources in the 

maintenance year to exceed all emissions in the attainment year. This Technical Support 

Document will describe how emission estimates and emission growth rates that were used in 

both the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan and this SIP revision were developed for all source 

categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway). 

Point Source Category Emissions 

Point sources include emissions from large commercial, institutional, and industrial facilities 

such as chemical manufacturing facilities, large waste disposal sites, and large heating and 

electric generating units (EGUs). Emission projections used in the ABE Ozone Maintenance 

Plan were prepared for the point source sector for 11 states, including Pennsylvania, and the 

District of Columbia, for the Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) 

by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc. Future year projections were developed by MACTEC so 

that states could use the projections as inventories in their SIP revisions. Estimates were 

prepared for years 2009 and 2018, and took into consideration both growth in economic activity 

and additional controls. 

For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future for all of the states’ ozone maintenance 

plans, the point source inventory of emissions is divided into two subsectors – the EGU sector 

and the non-EGU sector. Different projection methods are used for those two sectors. The ABE 

Area has six EGU emission sources and many non-EGU point sources. For the non-EGU point 

source sector, growth factors were developed by using the U.S. Environmental Protection 

Agency’s (EPA) Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) Version 5.0. The U.S. Department 

of Energy fuel consumption forecasts were used to replace default values for combustion sources 

in EGAS 5.0. Additionally, state-supplied population, employment, and other emission 

projection data were used if either EGAS 5.0 values did not exist or if the state-supplied data was 

deemed better than default values given by EGAS 5.0. 
- 2 -

Point Source Category 2009 Emissions 

Table 1 provides totals of NOX emissions for both 2009 projected point source emissions in the 

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan and the actual 2009 ABE Area point source emissions reported to 

the Department by the point source operators after the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was 

developed.1 Table 1 demonstrates that point source emissions in the ABE Ozone Maintenance 

Plan for 2009 were overestimated for NOX. Table 2 lists the actual 2009 NOX emissions from 

the individual facilities in the ABE Area. The annual emissions were divided by 365 days in a 

year to obtain daily emissions. 

Actual Emissions for 2009 

Table 1: Point Source Emissions for 2009 - SIP Estimated versus Actual 

Emissions for 2009 NOX 

(tons/day)

Emissions in Maintenance Plan 58.3 

Actual Emissions (actual 

reported annual emissions in 

Table 2 divided by 365 days) 

27.0 

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NOX Point Source Inventory for the ABE Ozone Maintenance 

Area by Facility Source 

EPA AFS 

Number 

Facility Name NOX 

(tons/year) 

420250001 ALTADIS USA INC/MCADOO PLT 42.6

420250013 HORSEHEAD CORP/PALMERTON 117.4

420250023 PANTHER CREEK 

PARTNERS/NESQUEHONING PLT 

531.4

420770003 GEO SPECIALTY CHEM/TRIMET PROD GROUP 31.0

420770011 PA DPW/ALLENTOWN STATE HOSP 21.5

420770019 LAFARGE CORP/WHITEHALL PLT 496.4

420770035 NESTLE PURINA/PETCARE PLT 7.7

                                                            

1

 Air Information Management System Submittal, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, 2009 
- 3 -

EPA AFS 

Number 

Facility Name NOX 

(tons/year) 

420770052 SAMUEL ADAMS PA BREWERY 

CO/BREINIGSVILLE 

13.9

420770065 KRAFT FOODS NORTH AMER 

INC/ALLENTOWN 

8.5

420770208 MUHLENBERG COLL/PHYSICAL PLT 6.3

420770562 ST LUKES HOSP/MAIN BOILER PLT 7.0

420770565 LEHIGH VALLEY HOSP/17TH & CHEW STS 35.4

420770589 AIR PROD & CHEM INC/TREXLERTOWN PLT 10.2

420770590 HAMILTON TEK PARTNERS/BREINIGSVILLE 

PLT 

6.7

420770671 LEHIGH VALLEY HOSP/S CEDAR CREST 11.7

420950006 HERCULES CEMENT CO LP/STOCKERTOWN 1,557.0

420950010 PPL MARTINS CREEK LLC/MARTINS CREEK 814.7

420950011 GENON REMA LLC/PORTLAND GENERATING 

STA 

3,070.0

420950012 KEYSTONE PORTLAND CEMENT/EAST ALLEN 856.1

420950020 LAFAYETTE COLLEGE/EASTON 6.5

420950035 ROCKWOOD PIGMENTS/EASTON 12.0

420950045 ESSROC/NAZARETH LOWER CEMENT PLT 1 1,564.4

420950057 LEHIGH UNIV/PACKER & MOUNTAINTOP 

CAMPUSES 

15.9

420950110 LEHIGH HEAVY FORGE CORP/BETHLEHEM 31.3

420950232 IESI PA BETHLEHEM LD/BETHLEHEM 

FACILITY 

7.4

420950254 CONECTIV BETHLEHEM LLC/BETHLEHEM 42.2

420950255 GREEN KNIGHT/PLAINFIELD LANDFILL GAS 45.3

420950256 LOWER MT BETHEL ENERGY LLC/BANGOR 83.6

420950536 NORTHAMPTON GEN CO/NORTHAMPTON 389.5

420950568 NORTHAMPTON CNTY/GRACEDALE CNTY 

HOME BOILER PLT 

7.0

420950930 CHRIN BROS SANI LDFL/CHRIN LDFL 15.9

 POINT SOURCE TOTAL 9,866.1
- 4 -

Point Source Category 2018 Emissions 

Ideally, emissions growth could be compared between what was assumed in the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan and recently revised assumptions for emissions growth. Both sets of 

assumptions are valid because the EPA requires that assumptions in growth be updated with each 

revision to the maintenance plan. If the revised assumptions for growth are less than those 

assumed in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, then it can be easily shown that emissions in the 

maintenance years are still below the emissions in the attainment year. However, when revised 

growth in some types of point sources is higher, and in some types, the growth is lower, 

emissions growth cannot be compared to show the new assumptions still maintain the ozone 

standard. In that situation, a projected emissions inventory needs to be developed and compared. 

For the ABE Area, a projected inventory for the maintenance year 2018 needed to be developed 

to show maintenance with the standard. 

The 2018 point source inventory for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was developed for 

MARAMA by MACTEC. More recently, an emissions inventory of all emission source 

categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway) was developed by MARAMA and MACTEC for 

a regional modeling effort. Table 3 and Table 4 compare total emissions of NOX produced by 

point sources in the ABE Area with the recently developed inventories. During the last year, 

MARAMA developed inventories for the baseline year of 2007 and projected years of 2013, 

2017, 2020, and 2025.2 The difference in the inventory years for the inventory used in the ABE 

Ozone Maintenance Plan and new MARAMA/MACTEC inventory development efforts did not 

allow for easy comparison of growth factors used for projecting emissions. Projected emissions 

in 2018 were estimated for this SIP revision using straight-line interpolation between the 2007 

MARAMA baseline inventory and the 2020 MARAMA projected year inventory using the 

following equation: 

2018 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + ((2020 Emissions - 2007 Emissions) * (2018 - 2007) ÷ 

 (2020 - 2007)) 

Emission projections of point sources in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan were overestimated 

for the year 2018 when compared to newer emissions data derived by MARAMA (See Tables 3 

and 4). 

Table 3: ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan – Emission Estimates for 2018 

Year NOX

Emissions 

(tons/year) 

NOX

Emissions 

(tons/day) 

2018 24,771 66.6 

                                                            

2

 MARAMA 2007, 2017, and 2020 Baseline and Projected Inventories, Version 3, Julie McDill, Mid-Atlantic 

Regional Management Association, Towson, MD, January 2012. 
- 5 -

Table 4: SIP Revision – Revised Emissions Estimates of Point Sources for 2018 (MARAMA 

2007 Baseline and 2020 Projected Inventories) 

Year NOX Emissions 

(tons/year) 

NOX Emissions 

(tons/day) 

2007 (Baseline) 14,432.7 39.5 

2020 (Projected) 8,621.1 23.6 

2018 (Interpolated) 9,515.2 26.1 

Table 5 shows actual 2007 and projected 2020 facility emissions of NOX for point sources in the 

ABE Area. 

Table 5: MARAMA 2007 Annual Baseline and 2020 Projected NOX Point Source 

Inventories for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source 

EPA AFS 

Number 

Facility Name 2007 

Baseline 

NOX

Emissions 

(tons/year) 

2020 

Projected 

NOX

Emissions 

(tons/year)

420250001 ALTADIS USA INC/MCADOO PLT 42.3 38.9

420250013 HORSEHEAD CORP/PALMERTON 134.3 136.2

420250023 PANTHER CREEK 

PARTNERS/NESQUEHONING PLT 509.6 647.3

420770003 GEO SPECIALTY CHEM/TRIMET 

PROD GROUP 47.3 25.1

420770011 PA DPW/ALLENTOWN STATE HOSP 17.0 24.1

420770019 LAFARGE CORP/WHITEHALL PLT 753.4 346.0

420770035 NESTLE PURINA/PETCARE PLT 7.5 10.6

420770052 SAMUEL ADAMS PA BREWERY 

CO/BREINIGSVILLE 7.4 9.4

420770065 KRAFT FOODS NORTH AMER 

INC/ALLENTOWN 9.8 13.9

420770208 MUHLENBERG COLL/PHYSICAL 

PLT 6.4 9.1

420770562 ST LUKES HOSP/MAIN BOILER PLT 12.3 17.5

420770565 LEHIGH VALLEY HOSP/17TH & 

CHEW STS 4.4 6.2
- 6 -

EPA AFS 

Number 

Facility Name 2007 

Baseline 

NOX

Emissions 

(tons/year) 

2020 

Projected 

NOX

Emissions 

(tons/year)

420770589 AIR PROD & CHEM 

INC/TREXLERTOWN PLT 11.5 11.7

420770590 HAMILTON TEK 

PARTNERS/BREINIGSVILLE PLT 4.8 6.8

420770671 LEHIGH VALLEY HOSP/S CEDAR 

CREST 10.9 15.5

420950006 HERCULES CEMENT CO 

LP/STOCKERTOWN 1,877.2 366.4

420950010 PPL MARTINS CREEK 

LLC/MARTINS CREEK 3,677.4 1,858.1

420950011 GENON REMA LLC/PORTLAND 

GENERATING STA 3,643.9 3,359.6

420950012 KEYSTONE PORTLAND 

CEMENT/EAST ALLEN 946.0 412.8

420950020 LAFAYETTE COLLEGE/EASTON 18.0 19.6

420950035 ROCKWOOD PIGMENTS/EASTON 21.5 20.7

420950045 ESSROC/NAZARETH LOWER 

CEMENT PLT 1 1,951.4 580.0

420950057 LEHIGH UNIV/PACKER & 

MOUNTAINTOP CAMPUSES 37.0 20.1

420950110 LEHIGH HEAVY FORGE 

CORP/BETHLEHEM 39.4 29.9

420950232 IESI PA BETHLEHEM 

LD/BETHLEHEM FACILITY 55.1 58.2

420950254 CONECTIV BETHLEHEM 

LLC/BETHLEHEM 70.1 113.9

420950255 GREEN KNIGHT/PLAINFIELD 

LANDFILL GAS 52.1 26.1

420950256 LOWER MT BETHEL ENERGY 

LLC/BANGOR 61.2 61.2

420950536 NORTHAMPTON GEN 

CO/NORTHAMPTON 384.3 356.4

420950568 NORTHAMPTON 

CNTY/GRACEDALE CNTY HOME 

BOILER PLT 7.5 7.5

420950930 CHRIN BROS SANI LDFL/CHRIN 

LDFL 11.7 12.3

TOTALS 14,432.7 8,621.1
- 7 -

Area Source Category Emissions 

The area source category includes emissions from sources such as surface coating, solvent use, 

residential and commercial heating, and other sources that emit small amounts of emissions on a 

per use basis but have a large number of users. The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan relied on a 

number of socioeconomic indicators to estimate emissions, and projections of emissions, such as: 

population, industrial employment, employment, and industry specific growth factors. In the 

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, a baseline area source inventory of 2002 was grown using 

socioeconomic factors of expected population and employment growth. For some sources, such 

as coal-, distillate-, or natural gas-fired boilers, data from the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook or the 

EGAS model was used to predict future growth and emissions. For other area source categories, 

state-specific industry growth estimates supplied by the Department were used. 

Area Source Category 2009 Emissions 

Table 6 shows a recent estimate of actual socioeconomic indicators. Actual growth that occurred 

from 2002 to 2009 was derived from data published by the U.S. Department of Commerce, 

Bureau of Census3,4,5 and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.6 

The actual growth is compared side-by-side with the predicted growth from the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan over-predicted growth for most area 

sources for the 2002 to 2009 timeframe. In two categories in the maintenance plan, actual 

growth was slightly higher than predicted growth: population and natural gas consumption in 

boilers. 

                                                            

3

 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Population Estimates Program," T1. Population Estimates 

Data Set: 2008 Population Estimates, available from http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2009-01.html, 

accessed October 2011. 

4

 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Housing Unit Estimates, Data Set 2002 and 2009 

Population Estimates, Note: For information on errors stemming from model error, sampling error, and nonsampling error, See: http://www.census.gov/popest/topics/methodology, accessed October 2011. 

5

 Employee and establishment numbers: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 

http://factfinder.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html 

6

 Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, State Energy Data System - Consumption, 

Physical Units, 1960-2006, available from: http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/sedsstates.cfm?q_state_a=PA&q_state=Pennsylvania
- 8 -

Table 6: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to 

Projected Growth in the ABE Area Maintenance Plan (2002-2009) 

Surrogate Indicator for 

Growth 

Actual 

Use 2002 

Actual 

Use 2009 

Actual 

Growth 

2002-2009 

Maintenance 

Plan Growth 

(2002-2009) 

Population 649,366 706,374 1.0878 1.0490

Total Employees 256,524 259,135 1.0102 1.0256

Total Coal Consumption 

(Short Tons) 483,144 320,624 0.6636 1.0481

Total Natural Gas 

Consumption (Million 

Cubic Ft.) 

28,158 30,663 1.0890 1.0106

Natural Gas Boilers ----- ----- ----- 1.0106

Natural Gas, Residential ----- ----- ----- 1.0841

Total Heating Oil 

Consumption (Barrels) 3,065,516 3,055,657 0.9968 1.0731

Area Source Category 2018 Emissions 

The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan estimated area source sector growth using a baseline 

inventory from 2002 and growing emissions to the maintenance years of 2009 and 2018, based 

on the growth of socioeconomic activity.7

 Data used to revise growth estimates in this SIP 

revision was obtained from the same MARAMA inventory effort described in the point source 

section above. The MARAMA effort used a baseline inventory of 2007 and maintenance year 

inventories of 2017, 2020, and 2025.8 Just as in the point source emissions, these inventory 

years made a direct comparison of emissions and growth rates difficult because the MARAMA 

baseline years and projected inventory years were too dissimilar from what was included in the 

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Therefore, projected emissions growth between 2009 and 2018 

in this SIP revision was determined through linear interpolation by using emission estimates for 

2007 and 2020 from the new MARAMA inventory. Projected growth between 2009 and 2018 in 

the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was estimated using the 2009 and 2018 emission estimates. 

The revised growth projections for this SIP revision are set forth in Table 7. 

                                                            

7

 State Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance Plan and Base Year Inventory Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone 

Nonattainment Area, September 2006, Appendix B-1, Area Source Methodology, p.2. 

8

 Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA), Technical Support Document for the 

Development of the 2017/2020 Emissions Inventories for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast/MidAtlantic Region, Version 3.3, January 23, 2012, MARAMA Contract Agreement FY2011-004 
- 9 -

The growth rate predicted in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan from 2009 to 2018 is derived by 

the following formula: 

Growth Factor(2009-2018) = ((Growth Factor(2002-2018) - Growth Factor(2002-2009)) 

 ÷ Growth Factor(2002-2009)) + 1 

A straight line interpolation between the 2007 MARAMA baseline emissions and the 2020 

MARAMA projected emissions was used to calculate emissions for the years 2009 and 2018. 

From these interpolated emissions (see equations 1 and 2 below), the projected growth between 

2009 and 2018 was calculated (see equation 3 below). Fossil fuel combustion surrogates in 

Table 7 represent most emissions of NOX, while “population” and “employees” represent the 

best surrogates for many source categories that produce VOC emissions. The surrogates for 

growth shown in Table 7 are used to predict revised growth for a large majority of emissions 

from area source categories in this SIP revision. 

(1) 2009 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + (2020 Emissions - 2007 Emissions) 

 * ((2009 – 2007) ÷ (2020-2007)) 

(2) 2018 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + (2020 Emissions - 2007 Emissions) 

 * ((2018 - 2007) ÷ (2020-2007)) 

(3) Emissions Growth(2009-2018) = ((2018 Emission – 2009 Emissions) 

 ÷ 2009 Emissions) + 1 

Table 7: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to the 

Projected Growth in the ABE Area Maintenance Plan (2009-2018) 

Indicator for Growth Revised Growth In 

MARAMA 

Inventory 

(2009-2018) 

Maintenance Plan 

Growth 

(2009-2018) 

Population 1.0373 1.0595

Employees 1.0319 1.0335

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9136 0.9983

Anthracite Coal, Commercial 0.0000 0.9865

All Combuster Types, 

Distillate Oil, Residential 

0.8226 0.9598
- 10 -

Indicator for Growth Revised Growth In 

MARAMA 

Inventory 

(2009-2018) 

Maintenance Plan 

Growth 

(2009-2018) 

Boilers and Internal 

Combustion Engines, Natural 

Gas, Commercial 

1.0687 1.0521

Combuster Types, Natural 

Gas, Residential 

1.0188 1.0181

Table 7 shows that, for the most part, growth in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan is comparable 

to new assumptions developed by the MARAMA inventory effort. It deserves mentioning that 

the two sets of employee growth that are compared in Table 7 were estimated using two different 

methods. The MARAMA inventory estimated growth in employment based on statewide North 

American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes. The NAICS codes proved too 

cumbersome to establish employment growth on the county level. Employment growth in 

Table 7 was derived from U.S Census Bureau industrial employment data and was not developed 

by MARAMA. It is safe to assume that, due to the severe economic downturn experienced from 

2007 to 2009, employee growth does not approach what was predicted in the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan. Emissions of NOX from area sources are dominated by fossil fuel 

combustion. While two categories, commercial natural gas consumption and residential natural 

gas consumption, show that the maintenance plan predicts less fossil fuel growth than current 

growth assumptions in the MARAMA inventory, the difference in these two categories is small 

enough to demonstrate that the emissions growth for 2018 is over-predicted in the maintenance 

plan. In Table 7, the growth rate for the Commercial Anthracite Coal category is listed as zero. 

This reflects an error in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan where this category was counted in 

both the area and point source inventories. When actual emissions for 2009 were reviewed, the 

area source value became zero after subtracting out point sources using EPA’s inventory 

development methodology. 

Nonroad Source Category Emissions 

Emissions from the nonroad category are produced by many different types of vehicles and 

equipment. The EPA’s NONROAD Model estimates emissions for over 200 types of 

equipment, engines and vehicles. Nonroad engines and vehicles can be used for such 

applications as construction, lawn and garden care, farming, and commercial and industrial 

applications. In addition, emissions from three types of activities (aircraft, locomotives, and 

commercial marine vessels) are not estimated in the NONROAD Model but are still included in 

the nonroad category. The aircraft, rail, and commercial marine emissions are estimated outside 

of the NONROAD model. In the approved ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the NONROAD2005 

model was used to estimate nonroad emissions. The model went through one major revision 

since it was used for the maintenance plan. NONROAD2008a is the latest version of this model. 
- 11 -

This new version of the model incorporated two reduction strategies that affect engines and 

vehicles in the nonroad sector: 

 Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine 

engines (73 FR 25098); and 

 The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and recreational marine rule 

(73 FR 59034). 

For the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the Department modified files in the NONROAD Model, 

when state specific data was available for emission categories such as residential lawn and 

garden. 

Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the ABE Ozone 

Maintenance Plan, as a result of the additional controls mentioned in the bullet points above and 

other controls that have been phased in with fleet turnover since 2004. The fleet turnover that 

occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by newer 

equipment and vehicles that meet more stringent emission standards has continued to lower 

emissions in the nonroad sector since the late 1990s and will continue to do so for the next 10 

years. Emission reductions occurred across all segments of the nonroad category, including 

construction equipment, farming equipment, locomotives, and lawn and garden equipment. 

Modeling runs were not completed for the nonroad emission source categories. The Department 

will treat nonroad emissions in the ABE Area as non-changing from their 2004 levels for the 

purpose of this SIP revision, even though full scale modeling runs using the NONROAD2008a 

would show nonroad emissions in a decline. 

Highway Source Category Emissions 

Highway emissions were estimated by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., a consultant to the Pennsylvania 

Department of Transportation. The methodology for estimating emissions of highway vehicles 

is greatly different than what was used in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan because an entirely 

new highway emissions model is being used. Highway emissions are being estimated using the 

MOVES2010 model instead of the MOBILE6.2 model. With this change, a new set of inputs 

was used in the MOVES2010 model. The method for forecasting traffic growth or vehicle miles 

travelled remains the same as what was used in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Both this SIP 

revision and the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan used the Statistical Evaluation of Projected 

Traffic Growth.

9

 Revisions to Appendix C, entitled Appendix C, Maintenance Plan Update for 

the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle 

Emission Budget Revisions Using MOVES2010a, is attached. Appendix C of this SIP revision 

replaces Appendix C in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan in its entirety. Appendix C of this 

SIP revision combines sections C3 and C4, and deletes section C5 of Appendix C in the ABE 

                                                            

9 Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth: Transportation Research, Education, and Technology Transfer 

ITQ, Contract Purchase Order No. 030219, Task 5, Final Report; March 14, 2005; Michael Baker Jr. Inc. 
- 12 -

Ozone Maintenance Plan. Included in the revised Appendix C is Appendix C-1, Mobile Source 

Highway Emissions Inventory – An Explanation of Methodology. 

The MOVES2010 model estimates that highway vehicle emissions increase greatly for NOX for 

the 2009 and 2018 maintenance years, when compared to the highway vehicle emission 

estimates included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan for those same years (See Table 8). 

MOVES2010 also increases the emission estimates of the 2004 attainment year. Despite the 

emissions increases in the attainment and maintenance years, MOVES2010-modeled emissions 

of highway vehicles, like MOBILE6.2-modeled emissions of highway vehicles, still show a large 

decrease in emissions between 2004 and 2009 and between 2004 and 2018. 

Table 8: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a 

Pollutant 

Original MOBILE6.2 

Emissions (tons/summer day) 

Revised MOVES2010a 

Emissions (tons/summer day) 

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

NOX 48.33 33.89 14.44 59.38 44.08 21.95 

VOC 30.54 22.80 13.28 N/A* N/A N/A 

*VOC emissions are not being revised in this SIP revision. VOC MVEBs developed 

using MOBILE6.2 are sufficient and will be used for transportation conformity.
APPENDIX C

Maintenance Plan Update for the 

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area:

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions

Using MOVES2010a

Technical Support Document

Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

Prepared for:

Mobile Sources Section, Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

PO Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468

Prepared by:

Michael Baker, Jr., Inc.

1304 Concourse Drive

Linthicum, MD 21090

410-689-3400
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area:

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions

Exhibit of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................................1

REVISED EMISSIONS INVENTORY...............................................................................................................................1

ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY........................................................................................................................................2

DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS...........................................................................................................4

ANALYSIS TOOLS ......................................................................................................................................................4

TRAFFIC DATA SOURCE/FLEET DATA INPUTS ...........................................................................................................5

TRAFFIC GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS..............................................................................................................................6

VEHICLE POPULATION GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................................................................7

I/M AND FUEL PARAMETERS .....................................................................................................................................8

METEOROLOGY DATA ...............................................................................................................................................9

VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY PROGRAMS ..........................................................................................................................9

RESOURCES.............................................................................................................................................................10

List of Exhibits

EXHIBIT 1: SUMMARY OF APPENDICES...........................................................................................................................1

EXHIBIT 2: REVISED MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS USING MOVES2010A .....................................................................2

EXHIBIT 3: SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS TOOLS...................................................................................................................4

EXHIBIT 4: PPSUITE PROCESS ......................................................................................................................................5

EXHIBIT 5: VMT GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS......................................................................................................................7

Summary of Appendices

Appendix C-1: Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory – An Explanation of Methodology

Appendix C-2: Emission Results for Ozone (VOC, NOx) 

(By Year, Road Type and Source Type)

Appendix C-3: MOVES Sample Input Files
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This technical appendix supports the revised maintenance plan for the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area

under the 1997 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone1. Section 107 of the 

Clean Air Act (CAA) establishes requirements for an area to be considered for redesignation. One of 

those requirements includes the development of an emissions inventory of ozone precursors, volatile 

organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), for a base year, the year the region attains the 

ozone standard, and projection years including a year at least 10 years following redesignation. The 

emissions inventory is used to demonstrate that projected emission levels are sufficient to maintain the 

ozone standard. U.S. EPA’s redesignation guidance states, “A state may generally demonstrate 

maintenance of the NAAQS by either showing that future emissions of a pollutant or its precursors will 

not exceed the level of the attainment inventory, or by modeling to show that the future mix of sources 

and emission rates will not cause a violation of the NAAQS.” 

A maintenance plan and corresponding emissions inventory for the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area

was originally approved by EPA on March 4, 2008 as documented in the Federal Register (72 FR 48559)

and was effective on April 3, 2008. At that time, EPA also approved the motor vehicle emission budgets 

(MVEBs) for VOC and NOx that were contained in the maintenance plan document. The original 

budgets were developed using MOBILE6.2, the latest EPA-approved emission model at that time. On 

March 2, 2010, EPA officially released MOVES2010a to be used for all SIP submittals and future 

transportation conformity analyses after a grace period through March 2, 2013. This maintenance plan 

update revises the 2009 and 2018 MVEBs using MOVES2010a.

Appendix C has been provided to summarize the methodology and analysis results for the motor vehicle 

emissions inventory. To complement this executive summary, attachments have been provided with 

additional detail regarding the analysis methodology, the MOVES input parameters, and the output 

vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and emission results for the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance 

Area. A summary of the appendices is shown below in Exhibit 1:

Exhibit 1: Summary of Appendices

Appendix Title Description

C-1 Explanation of Methodology Provides a detailed summary of the methodology used to 

calculate the VMT and emissions.

C-2

Ozone (VOC, NOx) 

Emission Results 

Provides emission exhibits by county, road type, and source 

type categories for a July weekday in 2009 and 2018.

C-3

MOVES Sample 

Input File Provides examples of the MOVES input files.

Revised Emissions Inventory 

A summary of the revised motor vehicle emissions for the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area is provided 

in Exhibit 2. Both VOC and NOx emission estimates have been developed using the MOVES2010a

emission model and latest planning assumptions. Emissions have been estimated for the 2004 attainment 

year, 2009 and 2018. The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates from the original maintenance plan have been 

included in the exhibit to illustrate relative changes in emissions.

 

1

Prepared for the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection by Michael Baker Jr. Inc. in 2012
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 2

Exhibit 2: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

(Short Tons/Day)

Pollutant Sub Area

Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

VOC

Lehigh Valley MPO 26.32 20.60 12.40 20.37 17.47 9.53

Carbon 4.23 3.40 2.30 2.89 2.36 1.30

Total 30.55 24.00 14.70 23.26 19.83 10.83

NOx

Lehigh Valley MPO 40.39 28.90 12.40 49.83 37.48 18.71

Carbon 7.95 5.90 3.00 9.55 6.60 3.24

Total 48.34 34.80 15.40 59.38 44.08 21.95

Analysis Methodology

Guidance documents from EPA were used to develop the base and future year emissions inventories for 

the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area. They include:

 Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation 

Conformity, and Other Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-

046, December 2009.

 Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in 

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and 

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April

2010.

 Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, 

August 2010.

The highway mobile source emission inventory was developed using available travel data and EPA’s 

MOVES2010a emission model. The methodologies used to produce the emission data conform to the 

recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance. A mix of local data and national default 

(internal to MOVES2010a) data has been used for this submission. Local data has been used for the 

primary data items that have a significant impact on emissions. These include:

 Vehicle miles of travel (VMT) by vehicle type.

 Average speed distribution.

 Vehicle type mixes.

 Source type population (for light-duty vehicles).

 Vehicle age distribution.

 Hourly distributions.

 Meteorology data.

 Inspection/Maintenance program.

 Fuel supply.

Most local data inputs to the analysis process reflect the latest planning assumptions based on 2008 data

obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT), the Bureau of Motor Vehicles, 

and other local/national sources. Newer data was available and was used for traffic forecast growth rates,
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 3

control strategies (e.g. Inspection-Maintenance programs), vehicle age distributions and fuel 

characteristics. 

The analysis methodology is consistent with past statewide inventory efforts including the 2008 National 

Emissions Inventory (NEI) submission. This includes the use of custom post processing software to 

calculate hourly speeds and prepare key traffic input files to the MOVES2010a emission model. A 

detailed methodology is provided in Appendix C-1. The following sections address the key input data 

sources and analysis tools used for the emissions inventory for the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area. 
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 4

DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS 

This section provides a summary of the key input data and analysis tools used for producing the 

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area emissions inventory. The key elements to the modeling 

protocol are described in the sections below. A more detailed description of the analysis process and 

tools is provided in the methodology reports in Appendix C-1 through C-3.

Analysis Tools 

The mobile vehicle emissions inventory analysis utilizes several key software/programs for producing the 

county emissions totals. These tools are outlined in Exhibit 3.

Exhibit 3: Summary of Analysis Tools

Tool Purpose

MOVES2010a

Produces emission rates for each ozone 

precursor, VOC and NOx.

PPSUITE

Processes the highway data; Calculates 

hourly congested speeds for each state 

roadway segment; Prepares MOVES2010a

input files; Processes MOVES2010a output 

files into a summary report.

CENTRAL

Provides a batch menu driven process to 

execute PPSUITE, MOVES2010a and other 

MYSQL steps. 

The Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area inventory reflects the highway mobile source 

emission estimations using EPA’s MOVES2010a emission model. EPA’s MOVES model was officially 

released on March 2, 2010 and was followed with a revised version (MOVES2010a) in August 2010. 

The MOVES2010a model provides a more robust estimate of emissions as compared to its predecessor 

MOBILE6.2. MOVES2010a has been integrated with local traffic, vehicle fleet, environmental, fuel, and 

control strategy data to estimate emissions.

PPSUITE represents an enhanced version of the Post Processor for Air Quality (PPAQ) software system 

that has been used for previous inventory and conformity submissions in Pennsylvania. The software has 

undergone significant revisions to ensure consistency with the MOVES2010a. PPSUITE was used to 

calculate hourly congested speeds for each roadway link, apply vehicle type fractions, aggregate VMT, 

prepare MOVES2010a traffic-related input files and process MOVES2010a outputs. 

The PPSUITE software and process methodologies are consistent with that used for state inventories and 

transportation conformity analyses throughout Pennsylvania. Exhibit 4 summarizes the key functions of 

PPSUITE.
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 5

Exhibit 4: PPSUITE Process

CENTRAL is a menu-driven software platform that executes the PPSUITE and MOVES2010a processes 

in batch mode. The software allows users to execute runs for a variety of input options and integrates 

custom MYSQL steps into the process. CENTRAL provides important quality control and assurance 

steps including file naming and storage automation.

Traffic Data Source/Fleet Data Inputs 

Traffic Volume Data: The 2008 PennDOT Roadway Management System (RMS) data serves as the 

primary highway data source for the county and functional class VMT estimates. The data source has 

been updated to provide a “snapshot” of the regional roadway system and traffic volumes in 2008 and is 

also integrated with traffic signal locations. The data includes the 2008 average annual daily traffic

(AADT) volumes for all state roadways in Pennsylvania. To account for additional local roadway VMT 

and to ensure consistency with reported Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) VMT totals, 

the 2008 VMT totals are adjusted to match the 2008 HPMS VMT totals reported to FHWA. 

Seasonal Adjustments: Based on the requirements for ozone inventories, traffic volumes on each RMS 

roadway segment must be adjusted to a July weekday. The daily and monthly seasonal factors are 

developed from data contained in the document, 2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data, prepared by 

PennDOT’s Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). The seasonal and daily factors provided in this 

document are based on statistical analyses of 2008 traffic counts taken at permanent and in-pavement 

ATR (automatic traffic recorder) locations throughout the state. Based on these seasonal traffic volumes, 

the PPSUITE software calculates unique congested speeds for each roadway segment during an ozone 

summer weekday scenario.
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 6

Congested Speeds: PPSUITE calculates congested speeds by hour of the day for each roadway segment 

and provides the information as input to the MOVES2010a software. To disaggregate the daily RMS 

volumes to hourly volumes, auto and truck hourly pattern data from PennDOT’s 2008 Pennsylvania 

Traffic Data report are used to determine the temporal variations in traffic volumes.

Vehicle Population: Vehicle population is a key input that has an important impact on start and 

evaporative emissions. MOVES2010a requires the number of vehicles by 13 source types to determine 

evaporative emissions. State 2008 vehicle registration data was used to estimate vehicle population for 

light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data was split to source types using MOVES2010a default 

population data. For transit buses, data from PennDOT and the National Transit Database (NTD) was 

used to estimate transit bus populations by county. For all other heavy-duty vehicles, PPSUITE calculates 

vehicle population based on the analysis year VMT for each source type and default MOVES2010a ratios 

of VMT and source type population (e.g. the number of miles per vehicle by source type). Vehicle 

population is forecast based on projected household and population growth from Woods and Poole Inc. 

for each Pennsylvania county. The growth rate methodology includes:

 Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households

 Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth assumptions

VMT by Source Type: The total VMT is disaggregated to the 13 MOVES2010a source types. For this 

inventory, the vehicle mix was calculated for each county and functional class grouping utilizing a 

combination of:

 2008 RMS truck percentages

 PennDOT and 2008 NTD transit data 

 2008 school bus registration data 

EPA’s MOVES2010a default distribution of VMT by source type was used to determine the remaining 

source type VMT percentages. The development of vehicle type pattern data input to the MOVES2010a

software is described in more detail in Appendix C-1. 

Vehicle Age Distribution: Vehicle age distributions are required to be input by 13 source types. The 

distributions reflect the percentage of vehicles in the fleet up to 31 years old. A recent 2010 registration 

download from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database has indicated a substantially 

older fleet than recorded in the 2002-2008 period. The 2010 vehicle age distributions have been used for 

this inventory. Due to insufficient data, only data for light-duty vehicles are used as local inputs; and

heavy-duty vehicle ages are calculated using the internal MOVES2010a defaults for each Pennsylvania 

County. The registration data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. The data was 

converted to source types using the EPA convertor spreadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a 

emission model.

Traffic Growth Assumptions 

Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role in estimating future year emissions for the region. There 

are many uncertainties affecting projections of traffic growth including the current economic conditions, 

potential fuel prices, the impacts of Marcellus Shale activities in many counties throughout the state, and 

the future growth in population and employment. Growth rates for this emissions inventory were based 

on an assessment of available data sources. 
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 7

For the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area, the following data sources are available:

 PennDOT BPR Growth Rate forecasting system.

 Regional Travel Model.

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include the review and assessment of county-specific growth 

rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical 

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14, 

2005. As part of that study, a statewide traffic growth forecasting system was developed that incorporates 

traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information System and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting 

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is updated on a periodic basis. This system was last 

updated in December of 2009 to develop new statistical relationships between historic VMT growth and 

population (thru 2008). The forecast population was estimated from the Woods and Poole data “2010 

State Profile”. The results of the study have been shared between PennDOT, PaDEP, and other 

Interagency Consultation Group members, including the Pennsylvania Transportation - Air Quality Work 

Group (which also includes EPA, FHWA, and representatives from larger MPOs within the state).

The growth rates from the PennDOT BPR forecasting system are evaluated against other available data 

including travel model growth and other insights. For the development of MVEBs, upper estimates of the 

VMT growth range are used for the forecast analyses. From an air quality perspective, the use of the 

upper boundary is conservative, and provides for factors outside PennDOT or PaDEP control (e.g., 

potential socio-economic growth above current forecasts, fleet age distributions, vehicle type distribution)

that influence motor vehicle emissions. Exhibit 5 summarizes the assumed projected growth of VMT for 

future analysis years in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area.

Exhibit 5: VMT Growth Assumptions

Analysis 

Year

Total Growth 

from 2004

Annualized Growth Rate 

from Previous Year

Lehigh Valley MPO

2004 ---- ----

2009 2.5% 0.5%

2018 25.5% 1.8%

Carbon

2004 ---- ----

2009 -2.7% -0.5%

2018 23.8% 1.7%

Vehicle Population Growth Assumptions 

Vehicle population growth forecasting plays an important key role in determining emissions for future 

years for the region. For this inventory, vehicle population was forecasted considering the growth from 

three different sources:

 Household growth

 Population Growth

 VMT Growth

The household and population data were obtained from the PennDOT study documented in the report as 

discussed above, Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: 
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 8

Final Report, March 14, 2005. The forecast household and population were estimated from the Woods 

and Poole data “2010 State Profile”. The highest growth between household and population data was 

obtained by county and compared with VMT growth and a factor was chosen limiting growth to VMT 

growth.

I/M and Fuel Parameters 

I/M Program: The inspection maintenance (I/M) program inputs to the MOVES2010a model are based 

on past and current programs within each county (all PA I/M programs are based on county boundaries).

All analysis years include Pennsylvania’s statewide program. The MOVES2010a model has simplified 

the I/M program input parameters compared to MOBILE6.2. The default I/M program parameters 

included in MOVES2010a were examined for each county and necessary changes made to the defaults to 

match the actual local program.

In order to assure that emission controls are working properly, vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M) 

programs have been adopted in some nonattainment areas. These programs have the added benefit of 

improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles. The Pennsylvania inspection and maintenance (I/M) program 

was upgraded and expanded throughout the state with a phase-in period starting in September 2003 and 

fully implemented by June 2004. 

The program requirements vary by region (five regions) and include on-board diagnostics (OBD) 

technology that uses the vehicle’s computer for model years 1996 and newer to identify potential engine 

and exhaust system problems that could affect emissions. The program, named PAOBDII, is 

implemented by region, as follows: 

 Philadelphia Region - Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia Counties

 Pittsburgh Region - Allegheny, Beaver, Washington and Westmoreland Counties

 South Central and Lehigh Valley Region - Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, 

Lehigh, Northampton and York Counties

 North Region - Blair, Cambria, Centre, Erie, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Lycoming, and Mercer 

Counties

 Other 42 Counties – Includes Carbon County

The OBDII program is implemented in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh along with tailpipe (idle in Pittsburgh 

and idle and ASM in Philadelphia) and gas cap tests. Tests in other regions include:

 Subject vehicles registered in the South Central and Lehigh Valley counties receive the visual, 

OBD and gas cap tests.

 Subject vehicles registered in the North region receive a gas cap test and visual inspection. 

 Subject vehicles registered in the other 42 counties (67 total counties) receive a visual inspection 

as part of the annual safety inspection. 

Fuel Assumptions: The MOVES2010a default fuel formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and 

updated based on available local volumetric fuel property information. The gasohol market penetration 

and RVP values were updated but MOVES2010a default data was used for the remaining parameters. 

Updated assumptions included:

 8.7 RVP used for summer months.

 Conventional gasoline used throughout the year for analysis year 2004.

 32% market share of conventional gasoline and 68% market share of 10% ethanol used 

throughout the year for analysis year 2009.
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 9

 10% ethanol used throughout the year for analysis year 2018.

These assumptions, as well as the I/M program parameters, are summarized in Appendix C-3.

Meteorology Data 

Updated weather information has been obtained from WeatherBank, Inc. (www.weatherbank.com). The 

10-year average minimum and maximum monthly temperature and relative humidity values were 

obtained for each of the 9 airport locations in Pennsylvania. 

The MOVES2010a model requires temperature and relative humidity data for each hour of the day.

EPA’s data converters were used to convert minimum and maximum daily temperatures to an hourly 

temperature profile that could be input to MOVES2010a. These assumptions are consistent with the 2008 

NEI inventory submission. 

Vehicle Technology Programs

Federal Programs

Current federal vehicle emissions control and fuel programs are incorporated into the MOVES2010a

software. These include the National Program standards covering model year vehicles through 2016. 

Modifications of default emission rates are required to reflect the early implementation of the National 

Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV) program in Pennsylvania. To reflect these impacts, EPA has 

released instructions and input files that can be used to model these impacts. This inventory utilized the 

August 2010 version of the files (http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/moves/tools.htm). 

State Programs 

The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles (PCV) Program, adopted in 1998, incorporated the California Low 

Emission Vehicle Program (CA LEVII) by reference, although it allowed automakers to comply with the 

NLEV program as an alternative to this Pennsylvania program until MY 2006. Beginning with MY 2008, 

“new” passenger cars and light-duty trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 pounds 

or less that are sold or leased and titled in Pennsylvania must be certified by the California Air Resources 

Board (CARB) or be certified for sale in all 50 states. For this program, a “new” vehicle is a qualified 

vehicle with an odometer reading less than 7,500 miles. PaDEP and PennDOT worked with the 

automobile manufacturers, dealers and other interested business partners and finalized procedures for 

complying with these new requirements. DEP focuses its outreach effort with the manufacturers and 

dealers regarding what vehicles can be offered for sale and how to certify that the vehicles are compliant. 

PennDOT’s role is to ensure licensing and registration records include these certifications of compliance 

or that the vehicle owner qualifies for an exemption to the requirements. In all cases, DEP will use 

information obtained during PennDOT’s title and registration process to oversee and audit, as needed, 

certain vehicle title transactions to determine compliance to the program. 

The impacts of this program are modeled for all analysis years beyond 2008 using the same instructions 

and tools as downloaded for the early NLEV analysis. EPA provided input files to reflect the CAL LEVII 

program. Modifications to those files were made to reflect a 2008 start date for Pennsylvania.
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 10

RESOURCES 

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010.

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State 

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office 

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010.

2008 Pennsylvania Traffic Data, PENNDOT Bureau of Planning and Research, 2008. 

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other 

Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-046, December 2009.

Instructions for Using LEV and NLEV Inputs for MOVES, US EPA, EPA-420-B-10-003a, August 2010.

Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, 

Michael Baker Jr., Inc., March 14, 2005.

Metrological Data from Weather Bank, Inc., www.weatherbank.com
APPENDIX C-1 

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area 

An Explanation of Methodology 
An Explanation of Methodology 

 Explanation of Methodology 

May 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................................... 1

OVERVIEW OF EMISSIONS INVENTORIES .................................................................................................................... 1

HIGHWAY VEHICLE EMISSION INVENTORIES ............................................................................................................. 1

WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA? ..................................................................................... 4

SUMMARY OF MOVES INPUTS .................................................................................................................................. 4

VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL (VMT) .......................................................................................................................... 5

ADJUSTMENTS TO ROADWAY DATA .......................................................................................................................... 8

VEHICLE TYPE PROCESSING ...................................................................................................................................... 9

VEHICLE FLEET AND POPULATION DATA ................................................................................................................ 10

ENVIRONMENTAL, FUEL AND TECHNOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................... 11

SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE .............................................................................................. 12

VOLUME/VMT DEVELOPMENT ............................................................................................................................... 12

SPEED/DELAY DETERMINATION .............................................................................................................................. 15

HPMS AND VMT ADJUSTMENTS ............................................................................................................................ 16

MOVES EMISSIONS RUN ........................................................................................................................................ 17

RESOURCES ............................................................................................................................................................. 18

HIGHWAY VEHICLE INVENTORY GLOSSARY ............................................................................................. 19

List of Exhibits

EXHIBIT 1: SUMMARY OF PPSUITE PROCESS ................................................................................................................ 3

EXHIBIT 2: MOVES LOCAL DATA INPUT SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 4

EXHIBIT 3: PENNDOT URBAN/RURAL AND FUNCTIONAL CLASS CODES ....................................................................... 6

EXHIBIT 4: EMISSION FACTOR VS. SPEED VARIANCES (NOX) ........................................................................................ 7

EXHIBIT 5: MOVES SOURCE TYPES AND HPMS VEHICLE GROUPS .............................................................................. 9

EXHIBIT 6: PPSUITE SPEED / EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE .............................................................................. 13
Appendix C-1 1 

INTRODUCTION 

The purpose of this document is to explain how the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental 

Protection (Department) estimates emissions from highway vehicles for inclusion in its emission 

inventories and State Implementation Plans. 

Overview of Emissions Inventories 

The Department’s inventories generally categorize emissions into four categories: 

• Highway vehicles. 

• Stationary sources (major industrial, commercial and utility sources). 

• Area sources (smaller industrial/commercial sources, consumer products). 

• Nonroad mobile sources (including construction and agricultural equipment, lawn and garden 

equipment). 

An evaluation of emissions from point, area, and mobile sources is needed to develop a complete 

inventory needed for a maintenance demonstration plan. This documentation addresses the mobile source

activity and emissions for base and future years used to support such a demonstration. 

Of all of the sources of air pollution, only the emissions of some stationary sources are measured directly 

and continuously through instrumentation. Emissions from all other sources must be modeled based on 

available local data, including those from highway vehicles. In their very simplest form, estimates of 

emissions follow the following pattern: 

Emission rate x activity level = emissions per time period (usually day or year) 

Most emission rates have been developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in 

cooperation with industry and states, and are compiled and documented into key references or emission 

models. These include Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors (AP-42), the Motor Vehicle 

Emission Simulator (MOVES) model, and the NONROAD model. Adding up the products of the 

emission rates and activity levels for all sources of a given pollutant constitutes the emission inventory for 

that pollutant. 

Highway Vehicle Emission Inventories 

Highway vehicles contribute significantly to air pollution, particularly to ground-level ozone, which is the 

most persistent air pollutant in Pennsylvania. Ground-level ozone is not emitted directly to the 

atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical reactions between volatile organic compounds 

(VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) in the presence of sunlight. The long, hot, humid days of 

summer are particularly conducive to ozone formation, so ozone levels are of concern primarily 

during the months of May through September. Both VOCs and NOx are emitted from highway 

vehicles. Pennsylvania’s ozone-related emission inventory efforts focus on these two types of pollutants. 

Obviously, direct measurement of emission levels from all vehicles in use is impossible. In comparison 

to highway vehicles, estimating residential heating emissions is a fairly simple calculation because there 

is a constant emission rate and a fairly simple measure of activity. However, for highway vehicles 
Appendix C-1 2 

estimating the emission rate and activity levels of all vehicles on the road during a typical summer day is 

a complicated endeavor. 

 

If every vehicle emitted the same amount of pollution all the time, one could simply multiply those 

emission standards (emission rate in grams of pollution per mile) times the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 

to estimate total emissions. But emission rates from all vehicles vary over the entire range of conditions 

under which they operate. These variables include air temperature, speed, traffic conditions, operating 

mode and fuel characteristics. The inventory must also account for non-exhaust or evaporative emissions. 

In addition, the fleet is composed of several generations and types of vehicles with different emission 

control technologies. This requires the estimation algorithm include the composition of the fleet (vehicle 

ages and types). 

In order to estimate both the rate at which emissions are being generated and to calculate vehicle miles 

traveled (activity level), Pennsylvania examines its road network and fleet to estimate vehicle activity. 

For ozone-related inventories, this is done for a typical summer weekday. For carbon monoxide (CO) and 

particulate matter (PM) emission inventories, this may be done for a typical winter weekday, summer 

weekday and/or annual conditions. Not only must this be done for a baseline year, but it must also be

projected into the future. This process involves a large quantity of data and is extremely complex. 

Computer models have been developed to perform these calculations by simulating the travel of vehicles

on the Commonwealth’s roadway system. The models also generate emissions rates (also called emission 

factors) for different vehicle types for area-specific conditions, and then combine them in summary form. 

The area-specific conditions include vehicle and highway data, plus control measure characteristics and 

future year projections of all variables. The key models used to generate this mobile source emissions 

inventory are: 

MOVES: EPA’s MOVES model was officially released on March 2, 2010 and was followed with a 

revised version (MOVES2010a) in August 2010. The MOVES model provides a more robust estimate of 

emissions as compared to its predecessor MOBILE6.2. MOVES calculates average in-use fleet emissions 

for each of thirteen categories of vehicles under various conditions affecting in-use emission levels (e.g., 

ambient temperatures, average traffic speeds, gasoline volatility) as specified by the model user. 

For this mobile source inventory, Pennsylvania used MOVES2010a as approved by EPA. MOVES can 

be used to estimate national, state, and county level inventories of criteria air pollutants, precursors, 

greenhouse gas emissions, and some mobile source air toxics from highway vehicles. Additionally, 

MOVES can make projections for energy consumption (total, petroleum-based, and fossil-based). 

PPSUITE: For the Department’s highway emissions inventory, a post processor named PPSUITE 

(formerly named PPAQ - Post Processor for Air Quality) is used, which consists of a set of programs that 

perform the following functions: 

• Analyzes highway operating conditions. 

• Calculates highway speeds. 

• Compiles vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and vehicle type mix data. 

• Prepares MOVES runs and processes MOVES outputs. 

PPSUITE is a widely used and accepted tool for estimating speeds and processing emissions rates. The

software is based upon accepted transportation engineering methodologies. For example, PPSUITE uses 

speed and delay estimation procedures based on planning methods provided in the Highway Capacity 

Manual, a report prepared by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) summarizing current knowledge 

and analysis techniques for capacity and level-of-service analyses of the transportation system. 
Appendix C-1 3 

The PPSUITE process is integral to producing key input files to the MOVES emission model. Exhibit 1 

summarizes the key functions of PPSUITE and the traffic-related input files prepared for the MOVES 

County Data Manager (CDM). 

Exhibit 1: Summary of PPSUITE Process 

The following sections summarize the key data and methodologies used to produce the mobile source 

emissions inventory. This includes a summary of local data sources and a step-by-step review of the 

speed calculation process. The emission data and process has been developed according to 

recommendations provided by EPA in key policy and technical guidance as provided below:

• Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation 

Conformity, and Other Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-

046, December 2009. 

• Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in 

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and 

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 

2010. 

The process has focused on developing an emissions inventory using the available tools and data to its

fullest extent. This includes the use of available local data for items that have a significant impact on 

emissions and applying a robust calculation process to estimate hourly traffic speeds. 

 
Appendix C-1 4 

WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA? 

Summary of MOVES Inputs 

A large number of inputs to MOVES are needed to fully account for the numerous vehicle and 

environmental parameters that affect emissions. These include traffic flow characteristics (as determined 

from the PPSUITE software), vehicle descriptions, fuel parameters, inspection/maintenance program 

parameters, and environmental variables. MOVES includes a default national database of meteorology, 

vehicle fleet, vehicle activity, fuel, and emission control program data for every county; but EPA cannot 

certify that the default data is the most current or best available information for any specific area. As a 

result, local data is recommended for use for analyses supporting state implementation plans (SIPs). 

A mix of local and default data is used for this inventory. Local data sources are used for all inputs that 

have a significant impact on calculated emission rates. Exhibit 2 summarizes Pennsylvania-specific 

inputs assembled and used for this inventory. These data items are discussed in the following sections. 

Exhibit 2: MOVES Local Data Input Summary

 Traffic Vehicle Fuel Inspection Environmental 

 Data Descriptions Parameters Maintenance Variables 

 Vehicle Type Vehicle Type RVP Start Year Hourly 

 VMT Mix Model Years Temperatures

 Vehicle Vehicle Age Sulfur Test Standards, 

 Population Distribution Level Source Types, Humidity 

 Frequency 

 VMT Average Speeds Ethanol Stringency, 

 Fractions (PPSUITE) Volume Waiver Rate, 

 (PPSUITE) Compliance 

 Road Type Hourly Refueling 

 Distribution Distributions Controls 

 (PPSUITE) 

 Ramp 

 Fraction 

 (PPSUITE) 

 Emission Rates 

 
Appendix C-1 5 

Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) 

The VMT input to emissions calculations for Pennsylvania is based on information from the Roadway 

Management System (RMS) maintained by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation’s 

(PennDOT’s) Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). PennDOT obtains this information from periodic 

visual and electronic traffic counts. RMS data is dynamic, since it is continually reviewed and updated 

from new traffic counts and field visits conducted by PennDOT. Information on roadways included in the 

National Highway System is reviewed at least annually, while information on other roadways is reviewed

at least biennially. 

On a triennial basis, a current “snapshot” of the RMS database is taken and downloaded to provide an upto-date record of the Commonwealth’s highway system for estimating emissions. This emissions 

inventory is based on the most current snapshot of the RMS data. 

The RMS database contains all state highways, including the Pennsylvania Turnpike, divided into 

segments approximately 0.5 miles in length. These segments are usually divided at important 

intersections or locations where there is a change in the physical characteristics of the roadway (e.g. the 

number of lanes changes). There are approximately 99,000 state highway segments for the 67 

Pennsylvania counties contained in the RMS. Each of these segments contains an abundance of 

descriptive data, but only the following information is extracted for emission calculations: 

• Lanes. 

• Distances. 

• Volumes representing Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT). 

• Truck percentages. 

• PennDOT urban/rural classifications. 

• PennDOT functional class codes. 

• Number of signals (based on linkage to PennDOT GIS signal location data). 

RMS volumes and distances are used in calculating highway VMT totals for each county. As discussed 

in the next section, adjustments are needed to convert the volumes to an average summer weekday, winter 

weekday, and monthly day. In addition, the traffic volumes must be forecast to support future year 

emission inventories. Lane values and traffic signals are an important input for determining the 

congestion and speeds for individual highway segments. Truck percentages are used in the speed 

determination process and are used to split volumes to individual vehicle types used by the MOVES 

software. 

 

Road segments are classified by function, as well as whether it is located in an urban, small urban or rural 

area, as indicated below in Exhibit 3. The PennDOT urban/rural (UR) and functional classes (FC) are 

important indicators of the type and function of each roadway segment. The variables provide insights 

into other characteristics not contained in the RMS data that are used for speed and emission calculations. 
Appendix C-1 6 

Exhibit 3: PennDOT Urban/Rural and Functional Class Codes

 

Urban/Rural Code 1=Rural 

 2=Small Urban 

 3=Urban 

Functional Class Rural Functional Classes Used Urban Functional Classes Used 

 For Rural Areas For Small Urban and Urban Areas 

 ------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------ 

 1=Rural Freeway 11=Urban Freeway 

 2=Rural Other Principal Arterial 12=Urban Expressway 

 6=Rural Minor Arterial 14=Urban Principal Arterial 

 7=Rural Major Collector 16=Urban Minor Arterial

 8=Rural Minor Collector 17=Urban Collector 

 9=Rural Local 19=Urban Local 

Additional Network Information: The PPSUITE software system allows for many additional variables 

other than those available in the RMS database. Using these variables improves the ability of the 

Department to incorporate real roadway conditions into its estimates. The variables include information 

regarding free-flow speeds and capacities, signal characteristics and other physical roadway features that 

can affect a roadway’s calculated congested speed. This data can be determined from lookup tables based 

on a roadway segment’s urban/rural code and functional class. Much of the lookup table data was 

developed from information contained in the Highway Capacity Manual, PennDOT information on 

speeds and signal densities, and other engineering judgment. 

MOVES Traffic Inputs: The PPSUITE software uses RMS traffic data to prepare key inputs to the 

MOVES emission model including: 

• VMT. 

• Travel speeds. 

• Road type distributions. 

• Ramp fractions. 

VMT is the primary traffic input that affects emission results. The roadway segment distances and traffic 

volumes are used to prepare estimates of VMT. PPSUITE performs these calculations and outputs the 

MOVES annual VMT input file to the County Data Manager (CDM). 

Emissions for many pollutants (including both VOC and NOx) vary significantly with travel speed. 

While VOCs generally decrease as speed increases, NOx decreases at the low speed range and increases 

at higher speeds, as illustrated in Exhibit 4. To obtain the best estimate of vehicle speeds, the Department 

uses the PPSUITE set of programs, whose primary function is to calculate speeds and to organize and 

simplify the handling of large amounts of data needed for calculating speeds and for preparing MOVES 

input files. The PPSUITE software prepares the MOVES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by speed bin file 

which summarizes the distribution of speeds across all links into each of 16 MOVES speed bins for each

hour of the day. This robust process ensures that MOVES emission rates are used to the fullest extent and 

is consistent with the methods and recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance on the Use 

of MOVES2010 for Emissions Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation 

Conformity. 
Appendix C-1 7 

Exhibit 4: Emission Factor vs. Speed Variances (NOx)

In MOVES, typical drive cycles and associated operating conditions vary by the type of roadway. 

MOVES defines five different road types as follows:

1 Off-Network. 

2 Rural Restricted Access. 

3 Rural Unrestricted Access. 

4 Urban Restricted Access. 

5 Urban Unrestricted Access. 

The off-network road type includes emissions from vehicle starts, extended idle activity, and evaporative 

emissions. Off-network activity in MOVES is primarily determined by the Source Type Population 

input, as discussed in a following section. The remaining distribution among road types is determined by 

equating the PennDOT functional class with each MOVES road type as follows: 

• MOVES Road Type (2) = PennDOT Functional Class (1).

• MOVES Road Type (3) = PennDOT Functional Class (2,6,7,8,9). 

• MOVES Road Type (4) = PennDOT Functional Class (11,12). 

• MOVES Road Type (5) = PennDOT Functional Class (14,16,17,19). 

For this inventory, the MOVES road type distribution file is automatically generated by PPSUITE using 

the defined equivalencies. 

Since ramps are not directly represented within the RMS database information, it is assumed that 8% of

the Freeway VHT is Ramp VHT. This is consistent with the recommendations provided in EPA’s 

technical guidance. 

Source: Figure 3 from Implications of the MOVES2010 Model on Mobile 

Source Emission Estimates, Air & Waste Management Association, July 2010. 
Appendix C-1 8 

Adjustments to Roadway Data 

Before the RMS data can be used by PPSUITE for speed and emission calculations, several adjustments 

and additions must be made to the roadway data. These adjustments are summarized below. 

HPMS Adjustments: According to EPA guidance, baseline inventory VMT computed from the RMS 

highway segment volumes must be adjusted to be consistent with Highway Performance Monitoring 

System (HPMS) VMT totals. The HPMS VMT reported for Pennsylvania is a subsystem of the RMS 

established to meet the data reporting requirements of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and 

to serve as PennDOT’s official source of highway information. Although it has some limitations, the 

HPMS system is currently in use in all 50 states and is being improved under FHWA direction. 

Although the HPMS VMT and the roadway data used for an inventory emissions analysis are both based 

on data from the RMS system, differences do exist between them and include the following. First, the 

HPMS and inventory roadway data are “snapshots” of the RMS data taken at different times. Since the 

RMS is dynamic, changing constantly due to new data, differences will result between the data used for

calculating HPMS VMT totals and the inventory data used for an emissions analysis. Second, since the 

RMS does not contain many of the local roadways, local road estimates of HPMS VMT are obtained 

through alternative procedures developed by PennDOT. To account for such differences, adjustment 

factors are calculated and used to adjust the inventory roadway data to the reported HPMS VMT totals 

submitted to FHWA. The VMT contained in the HPMS reports are considered to represent average 

annual daily traffic (AADT). 

Adjustment factors are calculated which adjust the base year RMS download VMT to the reported HPMS 

totals for that year. These factors are developed for each county and functional class combination and are 

also applied to all future year runs. Adjustments for the “higher” functional classes (e.g. Freeway, 

Arterials - major routes) are close to 1.000 since HPMS VMT is derived from RMS information, and the 

only difference in the data is that the “snapshot” for the emission calculations is taken at a different time 

than for the HPMS. “Lower” classes (e.g. local roads) require greater adjustment since a large part of the 

local system is not under state jurisdiction and is not in the RMS database. There is, of course, a 

significant amount of local road mileage in the state. It is assumed that those local streets that are in RMS 

are representative of all local streets in their area with respect to volume and speed, so that roadway 

mileage adjustment is appropriate. 

 

Seasonal Adjustments to Volumes: The RMS contains AADT volumes that are an average of all days in 

the year, including weekends and holidays. An ozone emission analysis, however, is based on a typical 

July or summer weekday. PM and CO analyses require volumes representing a typical summer or winter 

weekday and monthly average conditions (needed for producing annual totals). Therefore, the RMS 

volumes must be seasonally adjusted. Seasonal factors were developed for each functional class and 

urban/rural code based on yearly count information prepared by PennDOT’s BPR. These factors are 

applied to the existing RMS AADT volumes to produce the July volumes. The same factors are also used 

to develop the MOVES daily and monthly VMT fraction files. 

Hourly Adjustments: Speeds and emissions vary considerably depending on the time of day. 

Therefore, it is important to estimate the pattern by which roadway volume varies by hour of the day. The 

24-hour pattern data provides PPSUITE with information used to split the daily roadway segment 

volumes to each of the 24 hours in a day. Pattern data is in the form of a percentage of the daily volumes 

for each hour. Distributions are provided for each county and functional class grouping. This data is 

developed from 24-hour count data compiled by PennDOT’s BPR, according to the process in the 

agencies annual traffic data reports. The same factors are also used to develop the MOVES hourly 

fraction file. 
Appendix C-1 9 

Traffic Volume Forecasts: Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role in estimating future year 

emissions for the region. There are many uncertainties affecting projections of traffic growth, including 

the current economic conditions, potential fuel prices, the impacts of Marcellus Shale activities in many 

counties throughout the state, and the future growth in population and employment. Growth rates for the 

Department’s emissions inventories are based on an assessment of available data sources which include:

 

• PennDOT BPR growth rate forecasting system. 

• Regional travel model, if available. 

• Estimates of Marcellus Shale related activity growth, if applicable. 

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include the review and assessment of county-specific growth 

rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical 

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14, 

2005. As part of that study, a statewide traffic growth forecasting system was developed that incorporates 

traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information System and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting 

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is updated on a periodic basis to develop new statistical 

relationships between historic VMT growth and population and updated demographic forecasts from 

Woods and Poole, Inc. The growth rates from the PennDOT BPR forecasting system are evaluated 

against other available data including travel model growth and other insights. 

Vehicle Type Processing 

Emission rates within MOVES vary significantly by the type of vehicle. The MOVES model produces 

emissions and rates by thirteen MOVES vehicle source types. However, VMT is input to MOVES by six 

HPMS vehicle groups. Exhibit 5 summarizes the distinction between each classification scheme. 

Exhibit 5: MOVES Source Types and HPMS Vehicle Groups

SOURCE TYPES HPMS Class Groups 

11 Motorcycle 10 Motorcycle 

 21 Passenger Car 20 Passenger Car 

 31 Passenger Truck 30 Passenger/Light Truck 

 32 Light Commercial Truck 40 Buses 

 41 Intercity Bus 50 Single Unit Trucks 

 42 Transit Bus 60 Combination Trucks 

 43 School bus 

 51 Refuse Truck 

52 Single Unit Short-haul Truck 

53 Single Unit Long-haul Truck 

 54 Motor Home 

 61 Combination Short-haul Truck 

 62 Combination Long-haul Truck 

The process used for this inventory includes a method to disaggregate the RMS traffic volumes to the 

thirteen source types and then to recombine the estimates to the six HPMS vehicle classes. Vehicle type 

pattern data is used by PPSUITE to divide the hourly roadway segment volumes to the thirteen MOVES 

source types. Similar to the 24-hour pattern data, this data contains percentage splits to each source type 

for every hour of the day. The vehicle type pattern data for this inventory is developed from several

sources of information: 
Appendix C-1 10

• PennDOT truck percentages from the RMS database. 

• Hourly distributions for trucks and total traffic compiled by PennDOT’s BPR. 

• Transit data from PennDOT and the National Transit Database. 

• School bus registration data from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database. 

The vehicle type pattern data is developed for each county and functional class combination. First, RMS 

truck percentages are averaged for all roadways within a county and functional class grouping. Using this 

percentage data, the total roadway volume for any segment is divided to auto and truck vehicle type 

categories. The transit data and school bus data is used to further disaggregate trucks, resulting in four 

vehicle groups (light-duty, school, transit, and other heavy-duty). 

From these groups, MOVES default Pennsylvania county VMT distributions by source type are used to 

divide the four groups into each of the MOVES source types. PennDOT hourly distributions for trucks 

and total traffic are used to create source type percentage breakdowns for each hour of the day. 

Vehicle Type Capacity Analysis Factors: Vehicle type percentages are provided to the capacity 

analysis section of PPSUITE to adjust the speeds in response to trucks. That is, a given number of larger 

trucks take up more roadway space than a given number of cars, and this is accounted for in the speed 

estimation process by adjusting capacity using information from the Highway Capacity Manual. 

Vehicle Fleet and Population Data

The information on the vehicle fleet including the number and age of vehicles has a significant impact on 

forecasted start and evaporative emissions within MOVES. The MOVES Model requires the population 

of vehicles by the thirteen source type categories. Pennsylvania county vehicle registration data is used to 

estimate vehicle population for light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data is split to source types 

using MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania county population data. For transit buses, data from PennDOT 

and the National Transit Database (NTD) is used to estimate county transit bus totals. Other heavy-duty 

vehicle population values are based on VMT for each source type using the vehicle mix and pattern data

discussed previously. The PPSUITE software automatically applies default MOVES2010a ratios of VMT 

and source type population (e.g. the number of miles per vehicle by source type) to the local VMT 

estimates to produce vehicle population. 

Vehicle population is forecast based on projected household and population growth from Woods and 

Poole Inc. for each Pennsylvania county. The growth rate methodology includes: 

• Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households. 

• Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth assumptions. 

Vehicle Age: Vehicle age distributions are input to MOVES for each county by the thirteen source types. 

The distributions reflect the percentage of vehicles in the fleet up to 31 years old. The most recent

available registration download from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database has 

been used for the inventory. Due to insufficient data, only information for light-duty vehicles are used as 

local inputs; and, heavy-duty vehicles use the internal MOVES2010a national defaults. The registration 

data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categories. As a result, the data was converted to source

types using the EPA convertor spreadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a emission model. 
Appendix C-1 11

Environmental, Fuel and Technology Assumptions

Information on environmental, fuel, vehicle technology and other control strategy assumptions were 

determined based on a review of MOVES2010a default information by the PaDEP. 

Fuel Parameters: The same vehicle will produce different emissions using a different type of gasoline. 

Fuel control strategies can be powerful emission reduction mechanisms. The MOVES2010a default fuel 

formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and updated based on available local volumetric fuel 

property information. The gasohol market penetration and RVP values were updated for all the counties. 

MOVES2010a default data was used for the rest of the parameters. 

Refueling Emissions: MOVES also allows users to calculate refueling emissions, the emissions created 

when vehicles are refueled at service stations. Pennsylvania includes refueling emissions in its area

source inventory and not in its highway vehicle inventory. Refueling emissions are not included in the 

highway emissions inventory. 

Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) Parameters: MOVES allows users to vary inputs 

depending on the I/M program in place for the area. The inputs include: 

 

• Program start year. 

• Stringency level. 

• First and last model years subject to the program. 

• Waiver rates. 

• Compliance rates. 

• Program type (test-only, test-and-repair, etc.) and effectiveness. 

• Frequency of inspection (annual, biennial). 

• Vehicle type coverage. 

• Test type (idle, loaded, etc.) 

The MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania assumptions were reviewed and modifications were made per 

actual program parameters. 

Environmental Variables: Evaporative emissions are influenced significantly by the temperatures of the 

surrounding air. Hourly temperatures have been compiled for each county based on information from 

WeatherBank, Inc. to specify temperatures from nine airports within the state. Ozone analysis 

temperature and humidity values were determined using the procedures documented in EPA’s technical 

guidance. Minimum and maximum temperatures for each month were converted to hourly temperatures 

using EPA convertors supplied with the MOVES2010a model. 

A summary of the MOVES related inputs used for the inventory and future year estimates are attached 

with the submission. 

 
Appendix C-1 12

SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE 

The previous sections have summarized the input data used for computing speeds and emissions for 

Pennsylvania. This section explains how PPSUITE and MOVES uses that input data to produce emission 

estimates. Exhibit 6 summarizes PPSUITE’s analysis procedure used for each of the RMS highway 

segments in the state. 

Producing an emissions inventory with PPSUITE requires a process of disaggregation and aggregation. 

Data is available and used on a very small scale -- individual 1⁄2 mile roadway segments 24 hours of the

day. This data needs to be processed individually to determine the distribution of vehicle hours of travel 

(VHT) by speed and then aggregated by vehicle class to determine input VMT to the MOVES emission 

model. 

Volume/VMT Development 

Before speeds can be calculated and MOVES run, volumes acquired from RMS must be adjusted and 

disaggregated. Such adjustments include factoring to future years, seasonal adjustments, and 

disaggregating daily volumes to each hour of the day and to each of the thirteen MOVES source types. 

Determine Future Year Volumes: The RMS database contains up-to-date current year volumes. 

However, to conduct a future year analysis, these volumes must be factored to the year being analyzed. 

Growth factors have been prepared for each county and functional class grouping. These growth factors

are applied to the base year RMS volumes to obtain future year estimates that can be utilized by 

PPSUITE. 

Example: 

A typical freeway link in the RMS database is I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County, 

Pennsylvania. This link has an urban/rural code=1 which indicates the link is in a rural area, and a 

functional class=1 indicating a rural freeway. 

The average annual daily traffic (AADT) from the RMS database for this link in 2008 is 12,077 

vehicles/day. 

Growth factors have been developed to factor the 2008 volume to future years. For example, to 

factor the 2008 volume to the year 2014, a growth factor of 1.282 would yield: 

2014 volume = 12,077 vehicles/day x 1.282 = 15,483 vehicles/day 

 

 
Appendix C-1 13

Exhibit 6: PPSUITE Speed / Emission Estimation Procedure

Data From PPSUITE Input Files PPSUITE Analysis Process Data from Roadway Source (RMS) 

 The Following is Performed For 

 Each RMS Roadway Segment 

 

Percent Pattern Distributions Expand to 24 hourly volumes RMS AWDT Adjusted Volumes 

 

Apply VMT Adjustments Adjust Volumes for Peak Spreading 

(V/C thresholds for spreading) 

Vehicle Type Patterns Disaggregate to Vehicle Type RMS Truck Percentages 

 

 Transit Data 

 School Bus Data 

 Calculate Link & Signal Capacities Roadway Attributes 

 (Lanes, FC code, UR code) 

Speed/Capacity Lookup Table 

 Calculate Link Calculate 

 Midblock Speed Approach Delay 

 Apply Post Speed VMT Adjustments 

 

 

 Prepare MOVES CDM Files 

 

 VHT by Annual RoadType SourceType Hourly Ramp 

 Speed Bin VMT Fractions Population Fractions Fractions 

 Per VMT 

 <Optional> 

Off-line File Preparation 

 

 Vehicle Age 

 Distribution Run MOVES Importer 

 to convert county input data 

 Hourly into MYSQL data format 

 Temps/Humidity 

 

 I/M 

 Parameters 

 

 Fuel Run MOVES 

 Parameters 

 
Appendix C-1 14

Seasonal Adjustments: PPSUITE takes the input daily volumes from RMS (which represents annual 

average daily traffic (AADT)) and seasonally adjusts the volumes to an average weekday in July. This 

adjustment utilizes factors developed for each functional class and urban/rural code. VMT can then be

calculated for each link using the adjusted weekday volumes. 

Example: 

Again, assume the rural freeway link: I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania. The 

AADT for this link in 2008 is 12,077 vehicles/day. 

Seasonal factors have been developed for urban/rural code and functional class combinations. For 

an urban/rural code=1 and a functional class=1, the factor to convert from AADT to an average 

weekday in July is = 1.15. 

Average Weekday July Volume = 12,077 x 1.15 = 13,889 vehicles/day. 

Total VMT (daily) for this link is calculated as volume x distance. The distance of this link as 

obtained from RMS is 0.296 miles. 

2008 VMT = 13,889 vehicles/day x 0.296 miles = 4,111 vehicle-miles / day. 

Disaggregation to 24 Hours: After seasonally adjusting the link volume, the volume is split to each hour 

of the day. This allows for more accurate speed calculations (effects of congested hours) and allows 

PPSUITE to prepare the hourly VMT and speeds for input to the MOVES model. 

Example: 

To support speed calculations and emission estimates by time of day, the July weekday volume is 

disaggregated to 24 hourly volumes. Temporal patterns were previously developed from 

PennDOT count data and input to PPSUITE. For the I-80 rural freeway link with morning peak 

volumes similar to evening peak hours (neutral), the following temporal pattern is applied: 

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

13579

11131517192123

Hour of Day

Percent of Daily

Using the I-80 segment, typical hourly volumes which result include: 

 8-9 a.m. 6.0% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 833 vehicles/hour (vph) 

 12-1 p.m. 5.0% x (4,111 vehicle .miles/ 0.296mi.) = 694 vph 

 5-6 p.m. 6.3% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 875 vph 
Appendix C-1 15

After dividing the daily volumes to each hour of the day, PPSUITE identifies hours that are unreasonably 

congested. For those hours, PPSUITE then spreads a portion of the volume to other hours within the 

same peak period, thereby approximating the “peak spreading” that normally occurs in such over-capacity 

conditions. 

 

Disaggregation to Vehicle Type: EPA requires VMT estimates to be prepared by source type, reflecting 

specific local characteristics. As a result, for Pennsylvania’s emission inventory runs, the hourly volumes 

are disaggregated to the thirteen MOVES source types based on count data assembled by PennDOT in 

combination with MOVES defaults. 

Example: 

Disaggregation of the total I-80 VMT to the various source types would include the following: 

 

Total Volume 8-9 am = 833 vph 

Source Type Volume 8-9 am: 

Motorcycle 11 0.5% 4 vph 

Passenger Car 21 54.7% 456 vph 

Passenger Truck 31 27.9% 232 vph 

Light Commercial Truck 32 9.3% 78 vph 

Intercity Bus 41 0.1% 1 vph 

Transit Bus 42 0.1% 1 vph 

School bus 43 0.1% 1 vph 

Refuse Truck 51 0.0% 0 vph 

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 52 2.2% 19 vph 

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 53 0.3% 2 vph 

Motor Home 54 0.1% 1 vph 

Combination Short-haul Truck 61 1.9% 16 vph 

Combination Long-haul Truck 62 2.6% 22 vph 

 

Speed/Delay Determination 

EPA recognizes that the estimation of vehicle speeds is a difficult and complex process. Because 

emissions are so sensitive to speeds, it recommends special attention be given to developing reasonable 

and consistent speed estimates; it also recommends that VMT be disaggregated into subsets that have 

roughly equal speed, with separate emission factors for each subset. At a minimum, speeds should be 

estimated separately by road type. 

The computational framework used for this analysis meets and exceeds that recommendation. Speeds are 

individually calculated for each roadway segment and hour and include the delays encountered at signals. 

Rather than accumulating the roadway segments into a particular road type and calculating an average 

speed, each individual link hourly speed is represented in the MOVES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by 

speed bin file. This MOVES input file allows the specification of a distribution of hourly speeds. 

For example, if 5% of a county’s arterial VHT operates at 5 mph during the AM peak hour and the 

remaining 95% operates at 65 mph, this can be represented in the MOVES speed input file. For the 

model runs, distributions of speeds are input to MOVES by road type and source type by each hour of the 

day; VMT and VHT is accumulated by the same groupings for the application of the emission factors to 

produce resulting emission totals. 
Appendix C-1 16

To calculate speeds, PPSUITE first obtains initial capacities (how much volume the roadway can serve 

before heavy congestion) and free-flow speeds (speeds assuming no congestion) from the speed/capacity 

lookup data. As described in previous sections, this data contains default roadway information indexed 

by the urban/rural code and functional class. For areas with known characteristics, values can be directly 

coded to the RMS database and the speed/capacity data can be overridden. However, for most areas 

where known information is not available, the speed/capacity lookups provide valuable default 

information regarding speeds, capacities, signal characteristics, and other capacity adjustment information 

used for calculating congested delays and speeds. An effort has been made to enhance the RMS data with 

traffic signal locations using other GIS signal data available from PennDOT’s Bureau of Highway Safety

and Traffic Engineering. 

Example: 

The speed/capacity lookup table is used to obtain important data used for link speed calculations. 

For the I-80 link with an urban/rural code = 1 (rural) and a functional class = 1 (freeway), the 

lookup table provides information including the following: 

 freeflow speed = 65 mph 

 capacity = 1800 vph per lane 

 number of signals = 0 (per RMS linkage to GIS traffic signal locations) 

This information is used along with the physical characteristics of the roadway to calculate the 

delay (including congestion) to travel this link during each hour of the day: 

For example: The I-80 link is calculated to have a travel time, including delay of 17.76 seconds 

for the 8-9am hour. 

Total travel time, in vehicle hours, for the 8-9am hour is calculated as: 

VHT (8-9am) = 17.76 seconds x 833vph / 3600 sec/hr = 4.12 vehicle hours. 

The result of this process is an estimated average travel time for each hour of the day for each highway 

segment. The average time can be multiplied by the volume to produce vehicle hours of travel (VHT). 

HPMS and VMT Adjustments 

Volumes must also be adjusted to account for differences with the HPMS VMT totals, as described 

previously. VMT adjustment factors are provided as input to PPSUITE, and are applied to each of the 

roadway segment volumes. These factors were developed from the latest HPMS download (conducted 

triennially); however, they are also applied to any future year runs. The VMT added or subtracted to the 

RMS database assumes the speeds calculated using the original volumes for each roadway segment for 

each hour of the day. 

 
Appendix C-1 17

Example: 

Using the Luzerne County I-80 rural freeway link example, the daily assigned volume is adjusted 

to account for reconciliation with the HPMS VMT. RMS VMT (in AADT) for Luzerne County 

rural freeways totals 962,559 vehicle miles in 2008. HPMS VMT (in AADT) as supplied by 

PennDOT and reported to FHWA totals to 990,088 vehicle miles for the rural freeways. A factor 

is developed by dividing the HPMS VMT by the RMS VMT: 

HPMS adjustment factor for Luzerne County rural freeways = 990,088 / 962,559 = 1.029. 

This factor is held constant in all future years. As an example, this adjustment is made to the 

I-80 freeway link VMT for the 8-9am hour after speed calculations are made, and produces the 

final July weekday VMT for this hour used for Ozone runs. 

I-80 Link VMT (8-9am) = 833vph x 0.296 miles x 1.029 = 254 vehicle miles. 

MOVES Emissions Run 

After computing speeds and aggregating VMT and VHT, PPSUITE prepares traffic-related inputs needed 

to run EPA’s MOVES software, which is used to estimate emission factors in grams of pollutant per 

vehicle mile and to produce total emissions based on input VMT to the model. The process uses 

MOVES2010a, the officially released emissions model that was obtained directly from EPA. 

 

The MOVES inputs prepared by PPSUITE include the following: 

• Vehicle Type VMT. 

• Vehicle Population. 

• VMT fractions. 

• Average speed distributions. 

• Road Type Distribution. 

• Ramp Fractions. 

These files are text formatted files with a *.csv extension. The files are provided as inputs within the 

MOVES county data importer. In addition the remaining MOVES input data including temperatures, 

I/M programs, fuel and vehicle ages are prepared manually outside of the PPSUITE process. 

The MOVES county importer is run in batch mode. This program converts all data files into the MYSQL 

formats used by the MOVES model. At that point a MOVES run specification file (*.mrs) is created 

which specifies options and key data locations for the run. MOVES is then executed in batch mode. 

MOVES can be executed using either the inventory or rate-based approaches. For this highway 

emissions inventory, MOVES is applied using the inventory-based approach. Under this method, actual 

VMT and population are provided as inputs to the model; MOVES is responsible for producing the total 

emissions for the region. Under the rate-based approach, MOVES would produce emission factors, after 

which PPSUITE would apply the emission factors to the link data and calculate total regional emissions. 
Appendix C-1 18

RESOURCES 

MOVES model 

Modeling Page within EPA’s Office of Mobile Sources Website 

(http://www.epa.gov/omswww/models.htm) contains a downloadable model, MOVES users guide and 

other information. 

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010. 

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State 

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office 

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023, April 2010. 

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other 

Purposes, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-046, December 2009. 

Traffic Engineering

Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board, presents current knowledge and techniques 

for analyzing the transportation system.

Traffic Data Collection and Factor Development Report, 2008 Data, Pennsylvania Department of 

Transportation, Bureau of Planning and Research. 
Appendix C-1 19

Highway Vehicle Inventory Glossary 

AADT: Average Annual Daily Traffic, average of ALL days. 

AWDT: Average Weekday Daily Traffic. 

Basic emission rates: MOBILE emission rates based on the applicable Federal emission standards and 

the emission control technologies characterizing the fleet in various model years. 

Emission rate or factor: Expresses the amount of pollution emitted per unit of activity. For highway 

vehicles, usually in grams of pollutant emitted per mile driven. 

FC: Functional code, applied in data management to road segments to identify their type (freeway, local, 

etc.). 

Fuel volatility: The ability of fuel components to evaporate, thus entering the atmosphere as pollution. 

Fuel volatility is usually measured as Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) in pounds per square inch. The lower

the RVP, the less volatile the fuel. 

Growth factor: Factor used to convert volumes to future years. 

HPMS: Highway Performance Monitoring System, PENNDOT’s official source of highway information 

and a subset of RMS. 

I/M: Vehicle emissions inspection/maintenance programs ensure that vehicle emission controls are in 

good working order throughout the life of the vehicle. The programs require vehicles to be tested for

emissions. Most vehicles that do not pass must be repaired. 

MOBILE: The model EPA has developed and which Pennsylvania uses to estimate emissions from 

highway vehicles. 

MOVES: The latest model EPA has developed with which Pennsylvania uses to estimate emissions from 

highway vehicles. 

Pattern data: Extrapolations of traffic patterns (such as how traffic volume on road segment types varies 

by time of day, or what kinds of vehicles tend to use a road segment type) from segments with observed

data to similar segments. 

PPSUITE: Post-Processor for Air Quality, a set of programs that estimate speeds and processes MOBILE 

emission rates. 

RMS: Roadway Management System, a database maintained by PENNDOT from traffic counts and field 

visits. 

Segment (also referred to as link): Division of roadway in the PENNDOT Roadway Management 

System. Usually represents 0.5 mile segments of roadway. 

UR: Urban/rural code, applied in data management to identify whether a road segment is urban, small 

urban or rural. 
Appendix C-1 20

VHT: Vehicle hours traveled. 

VMT: Vehicle miles traveled. In modeling terms, it is the simulated traffic volumes times link length. 

Vehicle Type: One of eight types, distinguished primarily by fuel type and/or weight, used in MOBILE 

modeling. 

Source Type: One of thirteen types, distinguished primarily by weight, used in MOVES modeling. 

Road Type: Functional code, applied in data management to road segments to identify their type 

(rural/urban highways, rural/urban arterials, etc.)

County Data Manager: User interface developed to simplify importing specific local data for a single 

county or a user-defined custom domain without requiring direct interaction with the underlying MySQL 

database. 
APPENDIX C-2

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary Tables

Appendix C-2-1

2004 July Weekday Emissions

Emission Summary

Emission Summary by Road Type

Emission Summary by Source Type

Emission Summary by Process

Appendix C-2-2

2009 July Weekday Emissions

Emission Summary

Emission Summary by Road Type

Emission Summary by Source Type

Emission Summary by Process

Appendix C-2-3

2018 July Weekday Emissions

Emission Summary

Emission Summary by Road Type

Emission Summary by Source Type

Emission Summary by Process
Appendix C-2-1

2004 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lehigh 8,624,648 40.6 11.19 29.20

Northampton 5,970,586 38.9 9.18 20.63

Lehigh Valley MPO 14,595,234 - 20.37 49.83

Carbon 2,373,594 44.3 2.89 9.55

Appendix C-2 2
Appendix C-2-1

2004 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary by Road Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lehigh Off-Network - - 6.29 4.27

Rural Restricted Access 431,421 64.9 0.21 2.24

Rural Unrestricted Access 762,920 39.6 0.42 1.91

Urban Restricted Access 3,009,008 56.7 1.49 10.47

Urban Unrestricted Access 4,421,298 33.1 2.79 10.31

Total 8,624,648 40.6 11.19 29.20

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Northampton Off-Network - - 5.69 3.72

Rural Restricted Access 0 0.0 0.00 0.00

Rural Unrestricted Access 1,066,280 43.2 0.55 2.63

Urban Restricted Access 1,740,562 57.5 0.87 6.45

Urban Unrestricted Access 3,163,744 32.1 2.08 7.82

Total 5,970,586 38.9 9.18 20.63

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Carbon Off-Network - - 1.53 1.11

Rural Restricted Access 947,479 64.8 0.48 4.68

Rural Unrestricted Access 831,431 35.5 0.53 2.13

Urban Restricted Access 186,335 59.8 0.09 0.64

Urban Unrestricted Access 408,348 32.7 0.26 0.98

Total 2,373,594 44.3 2.89 9.55

Appendix C-2 3
Appendix C-2-1

2004 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary by Source Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lehigh Motorcycle 43,161 0.5% 0.24 2.1% 0.06 0.2%

Passenger Car 4,586,667 53.2% 4.08 36.5% 5.80 19.9%

Passenger Truck 2,339,435 27.1% 4.27 38.1% 6.08 20.8%

Light Commercial Truck 779,532 9.0% 1.42 12.7% 2.35 8.0%

Intercity Bus 12,443 0.1% 0.01 0.1% 0.29 1.0%

Transit Bus 2,650 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.05 0.2%

School Bus 11,994 0.1% 0.02 0.2% 0.13 0.4%

Refuse Truck 6,275 0.1% 0.01 0.0% 0.11 0.4%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 260,350 3.0% 0.41 3.7% 1.99 6.8%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 34,223 0.4% 0.04 0.3% 0.22 0.8%

Motor Home 14,954 0.2% 0.04 0.4% 0.11 0.4%

Combination Short-haul Truck 224,036 2.6% 0.18 1.6% 4.75 16.3%

Combination Long-haul Truck 308,927 3.6% 0.48 4.3% 7.27 24.9%

Total 8,624,648 100.0% 11.19 100.0% 29.20 100.0%

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Northampton Motorcycle 30,065 0.5% 0.19 2.1% 0.04 0.2%

Passenger Car 3,195,035 53.5% 3.41 37.2% 4.36 21.1%

Passenger Truck 1,629,628 27.3% 3.58 39.0% 4.57 22.1%

Light Commercial Truck 543,018 9.1% 1.19 12.9% 1.77 8.6%

Intercity Bus 8,419 0.1% 0.01 0.1% 0.19 0.9%

Transit Bus 1,133 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.02 0.1%

School Bus 1,136 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.01 0.1%

Refuse Truck 4,161 0.1% 0.00 0.0% 0.08 0.4%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 172,433 2.9% 0.28 3.1% 1.33 6.5%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 22,654 0.4% 0.02 0.3% 0.15 0.7%

Motor Home 9,913 0.2% 0.03 0.3% 0.07 0.3%

Combination Short-haul Truck 148,373 2.5% 0.12 1.4% 3.17 15.3%

Combination Long-haul Truck 204,618 3.4% 0.33 3.6% 4.88 23.6%

Total 5,970,586 100.0% 9.18 100.0% 20.63 100.0%

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Carbon Motorcycle 11,411 0.5% 0.05 1.9% 0.02 0.2%

Passenger Car 1,212,671 51.1% 1.03 35.6% 1.62 17.0%

Passenger Truck 618,420 26.1% 1.05 36.4% 1.66 17.4%

Light Commercial Truck 206,205 8.7% 0.35 12.0% 0.62 6.5%

Intercity Bus 3,895 0.2% 0.00 0.1% 0.09 1.0%

Transit Bus 203 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

School Bus 1,090 0.0% 0.00 0.1% 0.01 0.1%

Refuse Truck 2,387 0.1% 0.00 0.1% 0.05 0.5%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 98,052 4.1% 0.15 5.0% 0.75 7.8%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 12,882 0.5% 0.01 0.4% 0.08 0.9%

Motor Home 5,630 0.2% 0.01 0.5% 0.04 0.4%

Combination Short-haul Truck 84,485 3.6% 0.06 2.2% 1.84 19.3%

Combination Long-haul Truck 116,263 4.9% 0.16 5.7% 2.77 29.0%

Total 2,373,594 100.0% 2.89 100.0% 9.55 100.0%

County Sourcetype

County Sourcetype

County Sourcetype

Appendix C-2 4
Appendix C-2-1

2004 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary by Process

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lehigh Running Exhaust 3.83 34.3% 24.93 85.4%

Start Exhaust 4.00 35.8% 3.46 11.8%

Evap Permeation 0.58 5.2% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 2.12 19.0% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.31 2.7% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.05 0.5% 0.01 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.05 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.24 2.1% 0.81 2.8%

Total 11.19 100.0% 29.20 100.0%

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Northampton Running Exhaust 2.71 29.5% 16.90 81.9%

Start Exhaust 3.65 39.7% 3.15 15.3%

Evap Permeation 0.53 5.7% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 1.77 19.3% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.26 2.9% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.04 0.4% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.05 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.17 1.9% 0.57 2.8%

Total 9.18 100.0% 20.63 100.0%

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Carbon Running Exhaust 1.08 37.5% 8.44 88.3%

Start Exhaust 0.98 34.1% 0.83 8.7%

Evap Permeation 0.12 4.3% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 0.51 17.7% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.07 2.6% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.02 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.01 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.1% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.08 2.8% 0.28 2.9%

Total 2.89 100.0% 9.55 100.0%

County Process

County Process

County Process

Appendix C-2 5
Appendix C-2-2

2009 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lehigh 8,852,111 39.7 9.50 21.73

Northampton 6,104,510 39.0 7.97 15.75

Lehigh Valley MPO 14,956,621 - 17.47 37.48

Carbon 2,309,692 43.6 2.36 6.60

Appendix C-2 6
Appendix C-2-2

2009 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary by Road Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lehigh Off-Network - - 6.10 4.00

Rural Restricted Access 297,403 64.9 0.10 1.02

Rural Unrestricted Access 862,445 39.2 0.32 1.54

Urban Restricted Access 3,002,383 56.4 1.01 7.21

Urban Unrestricted Access 4,689,880 32.8 1.98 7.96

Total 8,852,111 39.7 9.50 21.73

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Northampton Off-Network - - 5.59 3.53

Rural Restricted Access 0 0.0 0.00 0.00

Rural Unrestricted Access 1,103,637 43.2 0.38 1.94

Urban Restricted Access 1,817,577 57.4 0.61 4.57

Urban Unrestricted Access 3,183,297 32.1 1.40 5.70

Total 6,104,510 39.0 7.97 15.75

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Carbon Off-Network - - 1.49 1.05

Rural Restricted Access 886,709 64.8 0.30 2.89

Rural Unrestricted Access 844,126 35.4 0.35 1.55

Urban Restricted Access 165,623 59.8 0.05 0.39

Urban Unrestricted Access 413,233 32.5 0.17 0.72

Total 2,309,692 43.6 2.36 6.60

Appendix C-2 7
Appendix C-2-2

2009 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary by Source Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lehigh Motorcycle 44,475 0.5% 0.28 2.9% 0.03 0.2%

Passenger Car 4,726,319 53.4% 2.62 27.6% 3.66 16.9%

Passenger Truck 2,402,228 27.1% 4.35 45.8% 6.14 28.2%

Light Commercial Truck 811,703 9.2% 1.40 14.7% 2.29 10.5%

Intercity Bus 13,747 0.2% 0.01 0.1% 0.23 1.1%

Transit Bus 2,332 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.03 0.1%

School Bus 10,855 0.1% 0.01 0.1% 0.09 0.4%

Refuse Truck 6,907 0.1% 0.00 0.0% 0.08 0.4%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 256,338 2.9% 0.29 3.0% 1.37 6.3%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 34,233 0.4% 0.03 0.3% 0.16 0.7%

Motor Home 15,231 0.2% 0.03 0.4% 0.09 0.4%

Combination Short-haul Truck 223,605 2.5% 0.12 1.3% 2.84 13.1%

Combination Long-haul Truck 304,137 3.4% 0.36 3.7% 4.73 21.8%

Total 8,852,111 100.0% 9.50 100.0% 21.73 100.0%

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Northampton Motorcycle 30,710 0.5% 0.24 3.0% 0.02 0.1%

Passenger Car 3,263,531 53.5% 2.24 28.1% 2.76 17.5%

Passenger Truck 1,658,741 27.2% 3.70 46.5% 4.63 29.4%

Light Commercial Truck 560,483 9.2% 1.18 14.9% 1.72 10.9%

Intercity Bus 9,099 0.1% 0.01 0.1% 0.15 1.0%

Transit Bus 958 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.01 0.1%

School Bus 967 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.01 0.0%

Refuse Truck 4,737 0.1% 0.00 0.0% 0.05 0.3%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 176,948 2.9% 0.20 2.5% 0.95 6.0%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 23,617 0.4% 0.02 0.2% 0.11 0.7%

Motor Home 10,509 0.2% 0.02 0.3% 0.06 0.4%

Combination Short-haul Truck 154,368 2.5% 0.09 1.1% 1.97 12.5%

Combination Long-haul Truck 209,843 3.4% 0.26 3.2% 3.30 21.0%

Total 6,104,510 100.0% 7.97 100.0% 15.75 100.0%

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Carbon Motorcycle 11,147 0.5% 0.06 2.5% 0.01 0.1%

Passenger Car 1,184,570 51.3% 0.66 28.1% 1.01 15.3%

Passenger Truck 602,180 26.1% 1.03 43.6% 1.57 23.9%

Light Commercial Truck 203,337 8.8% 0.33 13.9% 0.57 8.7%

Intercity Bus 3,853 0.2% 0.00 0.1% 0.07 1.0%

Transit Bus 163 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

School Bus 915 0.0% 0.00 0.1% 0.01 0.1%

Refuse Truck 2,507 0.1% 0.00 0.1% 0.03 0.4%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 92,581 4.0% 0.10 4.1% 0.49 7.4%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 12,349 0.5% 0.01 0.4% 0.06 0.9%

Motor Home 5,497 0.2% 0.01 0.5% 0.03 0.5%

Combination Short-haul Truck 80,778 3.5% 0.04 1.7% 1.04 15.8%

Combination Long-haul Truck 109,815 4.8% 0.12 4.9% 1.70 25.8%

Total 2,309,692 100.0% 2.36 100.0% 6.60 100.0%

County Sourcetype

County Sourcetype

County Sourcetype

Appendix C-2 8
Appendix C-2-2

2009 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary by Process

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lehigh Running Exhaust 2.59 27.3% 17.72 81.6%

Start Exhaust 3.54 37.3% 3.22 14.8%

Evap Permeation 0.75 7.9% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 1.88 19.8% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.46 4.9% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.04 0.4% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.05 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.19 2.0% 0.79 3.6%

Total 9.50 100.0% 21.73 100.0%

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Northampton Running Exhaust 1.81 22.7% 12.22 77.6%

Start Exhaust 3.25 40.8% 2.96 18.8%

Evap Permeation 0.69 8.7% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 1.61 20.2% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.40 5.0% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.03 0.3% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.04 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.14 1.7% 0.57 3.6%

Total 7.97 100.0% 15.75 100.0%

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Carbon Running Exhaust 0.68 29.0% 5.55 84.1%

Start Exhaust 0.91 38.5% 0.79 12.0%

Evap Permeation 0.16 6.6% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 0.43 18.1% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.10 4.4% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.01 0.4% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.01 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.06 2.5% 0.26 3.9%

Total 2.36 100.0% 6.60 100.0%

County Process

County Process

County Process

Appendix C-2 9
Appendix C-2-3

2018 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lehigh 10,651,452 35.5 5.14 10.79

Northampton 7,671,550 37.0 4.39 7.92

Lehigh Valley MPO 18,323,002 - 9.53 18.71

Carbon 2,937,759 43.3 1.30 3.24

Appendix C-2 10
Appendix C-2-3

2018 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary by Road Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Lehigh Off-Network - - 3.69 2.96

Rural Restricted Access 383,647 64.4 0.04 0.44

Rural Unrestricted Access 964,369 39.0 0.12 0.60

Urban Restricted Access 3,752,698 41.9 0.49 3.35

Urban Unrestricted Access 5,550,738 30.9 0.80 3.43

Total 10,651,452 35.5 5.14 10.79

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Northampton Off-Network - - 3.37 2.50

Rural Restricted Access 0 0.0 0.00 0.00

Rural Unrestricted Access 1,396,686 42.6 0.16 0.86

Urban Restricted Access 2,271,828 54.5 0.27 1.97

Urban Unrestricted Access 4,003,036 30.1 0.60 2.59

Total 7,671,550 37.0 4.39 7.92

County Road Type VMT Speed (mph) VOC NOX

Carbon Off-Network - - 0.92 0.79

Rural Restricted Access 1,143,788 64.8 0.13 1.27

Rural Unrestricted Access 1,067,248 35.2 0.15 0.69

Urban Restricted Access 207,042 59.8 0.02 0.17

Urban Unrestricted Access 519,681 31.6 0.07 0.32

Total 2,937,759 43.3 1.30 3.24

Appendix C-2 11
Appendix C-2-3

2018 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary by Source Type

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lehigh Motorcycle 53,422 0.5% 0.31 6.1% 0.03 0.3%

Passenger Car 5,677,127 53.3% 1.26 24.5% 1.38 12.8%

Passenger Truck 2,885,515 27.1% 2.32 45.1% 3.29 30.5%

Light Commercial Truck 974,973 9.2% 0.77 14.9% 1.38 12.8%

Intercity Bus 15,805 0.1% 0.01 0.1% 0.12 1.1%

Transit Bus 3,007 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.02 0.2%

School Bus 14,029 0.1% 0.01 0.1% 0.06 0.6%

Refuse Truck 9,064 0.1% 0.00 0.0% 0.03 0.3%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 312,541 2.9% 0.15 3.0% 0.74 6.9%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 41,707 0.4% 0.02 0.4% 0.10 0.9%

Motor Home 19,020 0.2% 0.02 0.4% 0.07 0.6%

Combination Short-haul Truck 274,954 2.6% 0.04 0.9% 1.00 9.3%

Combination Long-haul Truck 370,288 3.5% 0.23 4.4% 2.57 23.8%

Total 10,651,452 100.0% 5.14 100.0% 10.79 100.0%

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Northampton Motorcycle 38,602 0.5% 0.27 6.2% 0.02 0.3%

Passenger Car 4,102,234 53.5% 1.10 25.1% 1.07 13.5%

Passenger Truck 2,085,042 27.2% 2.02 46.0% 2.53 32.0%

Light Commercial Truck 704,507 9.2% 0.66 15.1% 1.04 13.2%

Intercity Bus 11,217 0.1% 0.00 0.1% 0.08 1.0%

Transit Bus 1,301 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.01 0.1%

School Bus 1,305 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.01 0.1%

Refuse Truck 6,416 0.1% 0.00 0.0% 0.02 0.3%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 221,229 2.9% 0.11 2.5% 0.52 6.5%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 29,512 0.4% 0.01 0.3% 0.07 0.9%

Motor Home 13,467 0.2% 0.02 0.4% 0.05 0.6%

Combination Short-haul Truck 194,643 2.5% 0.03 0.7% 0.70 8.9%

Combination Long-haul Truck 262,074 3.4% 0.16 3.6% 1.80 22.7%

Total 7,671,550 100.0% 4.39 100.0% 7.92 100.0%

VMT VOC NOX

Miles Pct. Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Carbon Motorcycle 14,168 0.5% 0.07 5.1% 0.01 0.3%

Passenger Car 1,505,633 51.3% 0.34 26.6% 0.40 12.5%

Passenger Truck 765,410 26.1% 0.55 42.8% 0.85 26.1%

Light Commercial Truck 258,431 8.8% 0.18 13.9% 0.34 10.5%

Intercity Bus 4,845 0.2% 0.00 0.1% 0.04 1.1%

Transit Bus 218 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

School Bus 1,234 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.01 0.2%

Refuse Truck 3,417 0.1% 0.00 0.0% 0.01 0.3%

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 117,955 4.0% 0.05 3.9% 0.27 8.3%

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 15,749 0.5% 0.01 0.5% 0.04 1.1%

Motor Home 7,177 0.2% 0.01 0.6% 0.03 0.8%

Combination Short-haul Truck 103,742 3.5% 0.01 1.1% 0.37 11.5%

Combination Long-haul Truck 139,780 4.8% 0.07 5.3% 0.89 27.4%

Total 2,937,759 100.0% 1.30 100.0% 3.24 100.0%

County Sourcetype

County Sourcetype

County Sourcetype

Appendix C-2 12
Appendix C-2-3

2018 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area Emission Summary by Process

Summer Weekday (Tons/Day)

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Lehigh Running Exhaust 1.03 20.0% 7.83 72.6%

Start Exhaust 2.08 40.5% 1.94 18.0%

Evap Permeation 0.46 9.0% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 0.79 15.3% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.58 11.3% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.01 0.3% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.03 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.16 3.1% 1.02 9.4%

Total 5.14 100.0% 10.79 100.0%

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Northampton Running Exhaust 0.73 16.5% 5.42 68.5%

Start Exhaust 1.92 43.6% 1.79 22.6%

Evap Permeation 0.43 9.7% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 0.68 15.5% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.50 11.3% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.01 0.2% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.03 0.6% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.11 2.5% 0.71 8.9%

Total 4.39 100.0% 7.92 100.0%

VOC NOX

Emissions Pct. Emissions Pct.

Carbon Running Exhaust 0.29 22.1% 2.45 75.6%

Start Exhaust 0.54 41.7% 0.48 14.9%

Evap Permeation 0.09 7.2% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Vapor Venting 0.19 14.7% 0.00 0.0%

Evap Fuel Leaks 0.13 9.8% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Running Exhaust 0.00 0.3% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Start Exhaust 0.01 0.5% 0.00 0.0%

Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0%

Extended Idle Exhaust 0.05 3.6% 0.31 9.5%

Total 1.30 100.0% 3.24 100.0%

County Process

County Process

County Process

Appendix C-2 13
APPENDIX C-3

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area MOVES Sample Input F
 	
 

July Weekday MOVES Run Specification File Settings

Sample xml file format<moves>

<importer mode="county" >

<filters>

<geographicselections>

(Specify County to be run)<geographicselection type="COUNTY" key="42025" description="PENNSYLVANIA - Carbon County"/>

</geographicselections>

<timespan>

<year key="2018"/>

<month id="07"/>

<day id="2"/>

<day id="5"/>

<beginhour id="1"/>

<endhour id="24"/>

<aggregateBy key="Hour"/>

</timespan>

<onroadvehicleselections>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/><onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/><onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

</onroadvehicleselections>

<offroadvehicleselections>

</offroadvehicleselections>

<offroadvehiclesccs>

</offroadvehiclesccs>

<roadtypes>

<roadtype roadtypeid="1" roadtypename="Off-Network"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="2" roadtypename="Rural Restricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="3" roadtypename="Rural Unrestricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="4" roadtypename="Urban Restricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="5" roadtypename="Urban Unrestricted Access"/>

</roadtypes>

</filters>

<databaseselection servername="localhost" databasename="42025

_

2018

_

07

_

05

_

JulyWkd_mi"/>

<agedistribution>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
 	
 

<parts>

<sourceTypeAgeDistribution>

(Specify Age Distribution data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\AgeDistribution\10Reg_RepCty\2018\42035_2018_SourceTypeAgeDistribution.csv</f

</sourceTypeAgeDistribution>

</parts>

</agedistribution>

<avgspeeddistribution>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<avgSpeedDistribution>

(Specify Average Speed Distribution data file name for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\avgSpeedDistributi

</avgSpeedDistribution>

</parts>

</avgspeeddistribution>

<imcoverage>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<imcoverage>

(Specify I/M Parameters file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\IM\42000_2018_IMCoverage.csv</filename>

</imcoverage>

</parts>

</imcoverage>

<fuel>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<FuelSupply>

(Specify Fuel Supply data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\MOVES2010a\42000_2012_FuelSupply.csv</filename>

</FuelSupply>

<FuelFormulation>

(Specify Fuel Formulation data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\42000_FuelFormulation_MOVES2010a.csv</filename>

</FuelFormulation>

</parts>

</fuel>

<zonemonthhour>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<zoneMonthHour>

(Specify Meteorology data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Meteorology\2008\42025_2008_met.csv</filename>

</zoneMonthHour>

</parts>

</zonemonthhour>

<roadtypedistribution>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<roadTypeDistribution>

(Specify Road Type Distribution data file name for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\roadTypeDistributi

</roadTypeDistribution>

</parts>

</roadtypedistribution>

<sourcetypepopulation>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<sourceTypeYear>

(Specify Vehicle Population data file name for county being run)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\SourceTypePopulatio
 	
 

</sourceTypeYear>

</parts>

</sourcetypepopulation>

<rampfraction>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

<roadType>

(Specify Ramp Fractions data file name for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\RampFraction\rampfraction_defaults.csv</filename>

</roadType>

</parts>

</rampfraction>

<vehicletypevmt>

<description><![CDATA[]]></description>

<parts>

(Specify Annual VMT and VMT Fractions file names for county being run – As prepared by PPSUITE post processor)

<hpmsVTypeYear>

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hpmsVTypeYea

</hpmsVTypeYear>

<monthvmtfraction>

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_MonthFraction\42025_2018_MonthVMTFraction.csv</fil

</monthvmtfraction>

<dayvmtfraction>

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_DayFraction\42025_2018_dayvmtfraction.csv</filenam

</dayvmtfraction>

<hourvmtfraction>

<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hourvmtfraction.cs

</hourvmtfraction>

</parts>

</vehicletypevmt>

</importer>

</moves>

Sample mrs file format<runspec>

<description><![CDATA[MOVES2010 RunSpec Created by CENTRAL4 Scenario: CARB 2018 JULWKD JulyWkd Emission Inventory with user's data]]></descriptio

<modelscale value="INV"/>

<modeldomain value="SINGLE"/>

<geographicselections>

(Specify County to be run)

<geographicselection type="COUNTY" key="42025" description="PENNSYLVANIA - Carbon County"/>

</geographicselections>

<timespan>

<year key="2018"/>

<month id="07"/>

<day id="5"/>

<beginhour id="1"/>

<endhour id="24"/>

<aggregateBy key="Hour"/>

</timespan>

<onroadvehicleselections>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>
 	
 

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="11" sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="21" sourcetypename="Passenger Car"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="31" sourcetypename="Passenger Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="32" sourcetypename="Light Commercial Truck"/><onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="41" sourcetypename="Intercity Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="42" sourcetypename="Transit Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="43" sourcetypename="School Bus"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="3" fueltypedesc="Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="2" fueltypedesc="Diesel Fuel" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="51" sourcetypename="Refuse Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="52" sourcetypename="Single Unit Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="53" sourcetypename="Single Unit Long-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="54" sourcetypename="Motor Home"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="61" sourcetypename="Combination Short-haul Truck"/>

<onroadvehicleselection fueltypeid="1" fueltypedesc="Gasoline" sourcetypeid="62" sourcetypename="Combination Long-haul Truck"/>

</onroadvehicleselections>

<offroadvehicleselections>

</offroadvehicleselections>

<offroadvehiclesccs>

</offroadvehiclesccs>

<roadtypes>

<roadtype roadtypeid="1" roadtypename="Off-Network"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="2" roadtypename="Rural Restricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="3" roadtypename="Rural Unrestricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="4" roadtypename="Urban Restricted Access"/>

<roadtype roadtypeid="5" roadtypename="Urban Unrestricted Access"/>

</roadtypes>

<pollutantprocessassociations>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="3" pollutantname="Oxides of Nitrogen" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="11" processname="Evap Permeation"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="12" processname="Evap Fuel Vapor Venting"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="13" processname="Evap Fuel Leaks"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"/

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="79" pollutantname="Non-Methane Hydrocarbons" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="11" processname="Evap Permeation"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="12" processname="Evap Fuel Vapor Venting"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="13" processname="Evap Fuel Leaks"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>
 	
 

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust"

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="1" pollutantname="Total Gaseous Hydrocarbons" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="1" processname="Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="2" processname="Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="11" processname="Evap Permeation"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="12" processname="Evap Fuel Vapor Venting"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="13" processname="Evap Fuel Leaks"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="15" processname="Crankcase Running Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="16" processname="Crankcase Start Exhaust"/>

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="17" processname="Crankcase Extended Idle Exhaust

<pollutantprocessassociation pollutantkey="87" pollutantname="Volatile Organic Compounds" processkey="90" processname="Extended Idle Exhaust"/>

</pollutantprocessassociations>

<databaseselections>

<databaseselection servername="localhost" databasename="early_NLEV" description=""/>

<databaseselection servername="localhost" databasename="calevii08" description=""/>

</databaseselections>

<inputdatabase servername="" databasename="" description=""/>

<uncertaintyparameters uncertaintymodeenabled="false" numberofrunspersimulation="0" numberofsimulations="0"/>

<geographicoutputdetail description="COUNTY"/>

<outputemissionsbreakdownselection>

<modelyear selected="false"/>

<fueltype selected="false"/>

<emissionprocess selected="true"/>

<onroadoffroad selected="true"/>

<roadtype selected="true"/>

<sourceusetype selected="true"/>

<movesvehicletype selected="false"/>

<onroadscc selected="false"/>

<offroadscc selected="false"/>

<estimateuncertainty selected="false" numberOfIterations="2" keepSampledData="false" keepIterations="false"/>

<sector selected="false"/>

<engtechid selected="false"/>

<hpclass selected="false"/>

</outputemissionsbreakdownselection>

(Specify output database file name for county being run)

<outputdatabase servername="localhost" databasename="42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mo" description=""/>>

<outputtimestep value="Hour"/>

<outputvmtdata value="true"/>

<outputsho value="true"/>

<outputsh value="true"/>

<outputshp value="true"/>

<outputshidling value="true"/>

<outputstarts value="true"/>

<outputpopulation value="true"/>

(Specify input database file name for county being run)

<scaleinputdatabase servername="localhost" databasename="42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mi" description=""/>

<pmsize value="0"/>

<outputfactors>

<timefactors selected="true" units="Hours"/>

<distancefactors selected="false" units="Miles"/>

<massfactors selected="false" units="Grams" energyunits="Million BTU"/>

</outputfactors>

<savedata>

</savedata>

<donotexecute>

</donotexecute>

<generatordatabase shouldsave="false" servername="" databasename="" description=""/>

<donotperformfinalaggregation selected="false"/>

<lookuptableflags scenarioid="" truncateoutput="false" truncateactivity="false"/>

<internalcontrolstrategies>

<internalcontrolstrategy classname="gov.epa.otaq.moves.master.implementation.ghg.internalcontrolstrategies.rateofprogress.RateOfProgressStrategy"><![C

useParameters No

]]></internalcontrolstrategy>

</internalcontrolstrategies>

</runspec>