Cottonseed:

Production and Farm Disposition,

by State and United States, 1990-91 1/

Farm Disposition

Sales to
Oil Mills

----------- : Used for
: Planting

AL : 139
AZ : 380
AR 2 431
CA : 1,079
FL 4/ : 17
GA > 144
KS 4/ : 0
LA 2 446
MS 2 732
MO 2 124
NM : 48
NC : 91
OK 150
sc 50
TN 192
1X 1,943
VA 2
US 5,968

1,000 Tons

0 76.0 107.0 63.
0 194.0 237.0 186.
0 411.0 642.0 20.
0 333.0 183.0 746.
0 16.0 20.0

0 33.0 39.0 111.
5 0.3 0.2

0 341.0 415.0 105.
0 716.0 809.0 16.
0 114.0 158.0 10.
0 13.0 13.0 35.
0 38.0 51.0 53.
0 138.0 87.0 12.
0 24.0 44.0 26.
0 190.0 263.0

0 1,673.0 1,599.0 270
0 0.9 0.0

5 4,311.2 4,667.2 1,657

1.

0.

~
UonopLe

NOoOuUNN
_

oO

CODHMFHE WH
rar
ONDE RWHWWOD WOH OWN

WOODBDSCDDQDDDGDCDD00
[2]
_
SOSOSCRASCDPDODOWOCOCOCSCOCO

NAMA PAT

1/1990 crop

revised,

1991 crop preliminary.

2/ Includes planting seed, feed, exports, inter-farm sales, shrinkage, losses,

and other

3/ Included in “other” farm disposition.

crop.

4/ FL includes KS.

uses.

1991 and 25 tons for 1992.

Crop Production

May 1992

A-20

Planting seed from previous years’

KS estimate of cottonseed used for planting is 15 tons in

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Index
Page
Table Narrative

AlMONdS 0.2... eee eee cee ceeeeeueeeeeteeeeeeenns A-10 B- 8
Avocados... 0... eee eee ccc ceceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeenns A-10 B- 8
Bananas..... 0.0... eee cce eee eeeneeceeeceeeenns A-11
Cherries............. occ ce ccs seceeeceeeeeseneveues A-10 B- 8
Citrus Fruit......... cece cece cece ec eeceeeunens A- 8 B- 6
Cotton... . ccc ccc ce eee eteeeeeeceeernennes A-17 B- 9
Cottonseed.......... cece cece ec ee eee ceseeanenens A-20 B-10
Crop Moisture Maps.......... 0... ..cc cece cee eccceeeeeeeees B- 1

Crop Summary........... 0c. cccccceeeeeeeeececeeeeuuns A- 2

Farm Marketings ~ Cotton and Tobacco..................... A-24

Hay Stocks... eee teat tee eee cece ee tee cence eee eeeerenns A- 6 B- 5
Papayas. 0... eee eee cece cc ceneeeeuncecens A-11 B- 8
Pasture & Range Feed Condition Table..................... A- 7 B- 5
Potatoes, Spring............... ccc cceeeeeeeeeeeeceeceens A- 9 B- 8
Reliability Statement.............. 0. cece cece eee cce cee uee B-11
TAO. eee cece cece cece ccc teeen eee ececeeceesennnnnneees A-11

Tobacco, by Class and Type.................ccccseeeeeeeee A-12 B- 9
Tobacco by States......... 2... cece ccc ae ees eueee A-16

Wheat, by Classes...... 2.0... . cc cece ccc c cece cc ceeaennnece A- 5

Wheat, Winter..........0 00... eee eee ecee cece eee eeens A- 4 B- 4
Wheat, Durum............ 0... cece cece eee e cc ceeeceaneees A- 5 B- 5
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 ° B-13 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Price and Value by Class and Type,
: by State and United States, 1990-91 1/
:Marketing Year Average Price : Value of
Received by Farmers : Production

- Dollars per Pound - --- 1,000 Dollars

Class } Flue-cured
Wha ii, gold and

iddle Belts
1.682 1.738 372,630 411,211
VA 1.701 1.716 144° 245 151,248
US 1.687 1.732 516, 875 562,459
Were 12, Eastern NC
1.692 1.729 541,355 523,031
El NC Border &
Belt
1.633 1.713 130,885 132,843
Ng 1.586 1.715 174,309 190; 674
US 1.606 1.714 305,194 323/517
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
L 1.730 1.660 32,946 25,418
GA 1.683 1.694 1743771 136,536
US 1.690 1.689 207,717 161,954
Total 11-14 1.673 1.723 1, 571; 141 1,570,961
Class 2, Fire-cured
Type 21, VA Belt
1.602 1.526 4,425 5,437
ut 22, Eastern
istrict
1.941 2.131 14,981 14,406
1.990 2.152 30,274 29,827
1.974 2.145 45,255 44,233
ve 23, Western
ist rict
1.899 2.107 15,306 15,929
iN 1.900 2.108 2,328 2,412
US 1.899 2.107 17,634 18,341
Total 21-23 1,924 2.068 67,314 68,011
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-cured
Types 31, Burley
N 1.760 1.795 26,488 33,961
KY 1.755 1.789 737,012 819,273
MO 1,742 1.765 10,327 12,046
NC 1.743 1.772 31,372 31,896
OH 12755 13796 333196 403906
TN 1.747 1.789 165,546 188,382
VA 1.744 1.773 39,423 44,307
WV 1.745 1.780 4,746 6,088
US 1.753 1.788 1,048,110 1,176,859
Type 32, Southern MD
elt
: 1.860 1.620 17,960 20,898
PA : 1.740 1.570 11,588 11,037
US : 1.811 1,602 29,548 31,935
Total 31-32 1,754 1.783 1, 077; 658 1,208,794
See footnote at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 A-14 NASS, USDA


Upland Cotton: Farm Marketings, Percent of Sales, by Month,
State amd United States, 1990 Marketing Year

1990 1991
Sep : Oct Feb : Mar : Apr Jul
Percent
AL 0.1 41.4 21.3 26.9 13.4 12.2 14.1 6.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.4
AZ 0.0 1.6 20.2 41.4 15.0 7.4 3.6 1.9 4.8 1.8 1.5 0.8
AR 0.3 0.7 32.6 31.7 18.2 8.6 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.9
CA 0.3 2.4 23.7 34.6 20.3 6.1 2.7 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.0 0.7
GA 0.5 4.0 21.3 32.0 16.7 16.0 3.4 1.9 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.9
LA 0.4 6.7 28.6 24.4 16.6 12.8 3.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1
MS 0.8 4.0 25.4 18.7 13.7 17.8 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.4
TN 0.3 0.6 30.5 29.2 23.7 6.8 3.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1
TX 13.3 9.6 6.6 10.5 19.8 22.0 7.9 3.4 2.1 1.5 2.1 1.2
US 5.3 5.5 18.3 22 18.2 15.0 5.2 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.2
Tobacco: Farm Marketings, Percent of Sales,
by Class, Month, and State, 1991 Marketing Year
Class 1991
and 9 }-------------~----+----+----------
State
: Percent

Flue-cured :

FL : 37 38 25 100

GA 2 39 38 23 100

NC : 12 32 34 22 100

Sc : 20 37 35 8 100

VA 7: 5 22 33 38 2 100
Fire-cured :

VA : 61 39 100

KY t 62 33 5 100

TN : 56 40 4 100
Air-cured

IN 3 Il 44 43 2 100

KY : 14 54 30 2 100

MD 1/

MO : 25 53 22 100

NC t 18 70 12 100

OH : lk 42 47 100

PA 1/

TN : V7 63 20 100

VA : 16 71 13 100

wy : 18 52 30 100

1/ Sales are not complete for the 1991 crop.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 A-24 NASS, USDA


Wheat: Production by Classes, United States, 1990-91
and Forecasted May 1, 1992 1/

Red : White’: Red

Red
1,000 Bushels
1990 : 1,198,782 547,126 284,966 554,678 122,430 28,446 2,736,428
1991 : 901,346 325,201 145,635 431,223 103,957 73,342 1,980,704
1992 : 995,276 378,243 244,498

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing states. Unless unusual situations dictate, the

previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season.

Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted May 1, 1992

Area Harvested Yield Production

1,000 Acres

AZ : 39 39 95.

0 95.0 4,136 3,705 3,705
CA : 32 55 105.0 95.0 5,605 3,360 5,225
MN IJ/ 30 32.0 1,320 960
MT 1/ 179 33.0 4,465 5,907
ND 1/ 2,850 31.0 103,700 88,350
SD 1/ 67 25.0 3,204 1,675
US 1/: 3,197 32.5 122,430 103,957

1/ Area harvested for 1992 will be published in "Acreage" released
June 30, 1992. Yield and production will be published in "Crop Production"
released July 9, 1992.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 A-5 NASS, USDA


Reliability of May 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
between Apri? 22 and May 1 to gather information on
expected yield as of May 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in
four States (Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) where winter wheat had |
matured enough to make meaningful counts. Farm operators were interviewed to
update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate
two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields across the four States. The
counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. In
early fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number
of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be
harvested. A 5-year historical head weight is used until the crop matures to
the point that heads can be clipped, threashed, and weighed. Thé number of
heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot can then be used to °
estimate yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to
obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches
maturity and or harvested on the final visit.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 10,000 winter
wheat producers representing all major production areas. These producers were
selected from the sample used on an earlier acreage survey and were asked ,
about the probable winter wheat yield on their operation. These growers will
be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of ‘average
yields as the season progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower
reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness
and consistency with historical estimates. The indications were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous years.
Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation
to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey
indications and the State analysis to prepare the published May 1 forecasts.

Revision Policy: The May 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead,

a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end
of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryaver stacks,
production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then
made if data relationships warrant changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1
winter wheat production forecast, the “Root Mean Square Error,"
a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by
expressing the deviation between the May 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1972-1991 20-year period; the square root of the
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board ~
May 1992 B-1l NASS, USDA


Cottonseed:

of Sales to 011 Mills, by State and United States, 1990-91 1/

Marketing Year Average Price, Value of Production, and Value

Value of Sales
to Oi1 Mills

Value of
Production

1990

1991

~- 1,000 Dollars --

1990 1991
---- Dollars ----
96.50 61.00
136.00 82.00
106.00 60.50
148.00 104.00
100.00 53.00
127.00 55.50
115.00 70.00
116.00 64.00
110.00 60.00
107.00 60.00
143.00 88.00
112.00 53.00
107.00 68.00
121.00 53.50
112.00 62.50
116.00 71.00
112.00 53.00
121.00 71.50

-- 1,000 Dollars -

13,414
51,680
45,686
159,692
1,700
18,288
35
51,736
80,520
13,268
6,864
10,192
16,050
6,050
21,504
225,388
246

722,313

11,956
33,538
43,439
111,592
1,484
145430
35
33,408
52,560
10,260
2,728
12,137
6,868
6,474
17,313
135,113
530

493,865

7,334
26,384
43,566
49,284

1,600

4,191

35
39,556
78,760
12,198

1,859

4,256
14,766

2,904
21,280

194,068
101

502,142

6,527
19,434
38,841
19,032

1,060
2,165
14
26,560
48,540
9,480
1,144
2,703
5,916
2,354
16,438
113,529
0

313,737

1/ 1990 crop revised, 1991 crop preliminary.

Crop Production
May 1992

A-21

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


April Weather Summary: borat 1992 began and ended with heat in the West and a

chill in the East. In between, weather quietude was
shattered only by a classic spring storm. Monthly temperatures ranged from
near- to below-normal in the East to much-above-normal in the West.
Departures approached +10°F in the Southwest. Precipitation totals were
boosted by a major storm, which traversed the Nation from April 16 to 21.
Above-normal precipitation was recorded in parts of the Northwest, eastern
Plains, Great Lakes, and middle Atlantic States. Nevertheless, several areas
received little rainfall. Monthly rainfall was less than 50 percent of normal
from central California to the west-central Plains, and in a strip from
Arkansas to Kentucky. Other pockets of dryness encompassed portions of the
northern Plains and the Northeast.

Aside from the major storm, only a handful of systems dampened the Nation. In
the Northwest, beneficial moisture pushed ashore on five occasions. Although
the rain eased short-term water concerns, nine Western States (CA, CO, ID, MT,
NV, OR, UT, WA, and WY) are still suffering from varying degrees of long-term
drought. Farther east, warm, dry weather depleted topsoil moisture in the
High Plains. Goodland, KS, recorded a mere 0.01 inch of rain for the month,
and Casper, WY, had its driest April on record (0.08 inch).

Two vigorous disturbances converged on the Plains after mid-month to form the
month's most significant storm. Heavy rain and high winds lashed the Pacific
Northwest, and thunderstorms pounded the southern Plains. Farther north, rain
changed to wet snow and accumulated heavily from Kansas City, MO, northward.
Up to 14 inches of snow buried eastern Nebraska. In the Southeast, the storm
provided the best soaking of the month. But in the middle Atlantic States’
Foothills, rainfall in excess of 4 inches caused streams and rivers to
overflow.

An early-month cold outbreak sent temperatures below freezing deep into the
Southeast. Athens, GA, and Huntsville, AL, recorded 26°F on April 3. In the
Northwest, widespread frost covered the interior on the 5th and the 23rd.
Along the Canadian border, bitter cold briefly intruded around mid-month,
sending temperatures to 4°F in Devil's Lake, NO, and -1°F in Marquette, MI.
Cold air twice brushed the Midwest toward month's end before settling over the
East. On both occasions, temperatures briefly dropped into the 20's as far
west_as Nebraska. But in the West, a Jate-month heatwave set all-time
April records from Arizona to North Dakota. Valentine, NE, recorded its
earliest ever 100°F reading, and temperatures soared into the 90's as far
north as North Dakota.

April Fieldwork: Mostly dry weather across much of the Nation allowed field

preparation and spring planting to progress ahead of
schedule during April. Much-needed rains visited the northern Great Plains
and North Central States during the latter half of the month, which improved
crop prospects but slowed field work. Soil moisture remained somewhat short
in the Great Plains by the end of the month, however, and growers were
becoming concerned about crop prospects.

In April, fall-seeded small grains were beginning to head in the Southeast,
California, and Texas. Winter wheat was greening in the Central States, and
heading progress advanced rapidly with above-normal temperatures during the
middle of the month. Heading of winter wheat had advanced to 34 percent

(4) of the acreage in the 19 major States by May 3, 2 percentage points behind
ast year's early heading crop, but 10 points ahead of the 5-year average.
Winter wheat condition rated mostly good to fair nationwide, despite mostly
fair to poor ratings in I]linois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio due to
winterkill. Spring wheat seeding progressed ahead of schedule early in the
month, before being halted by rains and snow later in the month. On May 3,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-3 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss
by State, 1982-91 (continued)

Mississippi Texas
Year : : Harvest : 4 Harvest
: Large Bolls : Loss 7 Large Bolls  : Loss
1/ : Per Acre : i/ : Per Acre
Number Pounds Number Pounds
1982: 739 104 291 27
1983: 590 91 341 48
1984 2/:
1985: 662 91 423 40
1986: 611] 95 391 36
1987: 7717 81 473 34
1988: 726 86 463 34
1989: 710 9a 369 32
1990: 693 93 489 39
1991 : 726 90 442 41
1/ Total large bolls in 40 feet of row.
2/ Program temporarily suspended.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 A-23 NASS, USDA

4


The “Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 winter wheat production forecast is
6.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
production forecast of 1.62 billion bushels will not be above or below the
final estimate by more than 6.7 percent or approximately 108 million bushels.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will
not exceed 11.6 percent or approximately 188 million bushels. Differences
between the May 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate
during the past 10 years have averaged 70 million bushels, ranging from

11 million to 147 million bushels. The May 1 forecast has been below the
final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the May 1
winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-12 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Production and Bales Ginned, by Type,
State, and United States, 1990-9

Production in Lint- : Lint-_: -

Type: _480-1b : Seed : Seed 2/: Bales Ginned in

and : Net Weight Bales 1/ : Ratio : Ratio : 480-1b Net Weight Bales 3/

0 553.0 387,595 563,100
0 898.0 779,325 862,300
0 1,576.0 1,077,262 1,557,200
$ 2,548.0 2,758,406 2,581,700
9 726.0 411,500 724,650
0 1,414.0 1,190,835 1,441,400
0 2,275.0 1,843,956 2,270,800
0 429.0 306, 138 418,950
0 63.0 82,703 54,600
0 640.0 269,537 648,400
i) 240.0 375,543 237,950
0 344.0 142,807 338,550
0 701.0 491,248 699,950
9 4,710.9 4,978; 966 4,714,900
9 17,215.9 15,121,966 17,205,850
0 184.5 194,679 183,950
4 146.2 57,414 146,150
6 0.7 1,669

5 19.0 11,051

0 48.0 93,883 53,700
5 398.4 360; 259 396,800
0 553.0 387,595 563,100
0 1,082.5 0.386 0.389 974,004 1,046,250
0 1,576.0 0.379 0.367 1,077,262 1,557,200
6 2, 7094.2 0.382 0.381 2,815,820 2,727,850
g 722.0 411,500 724,650
0 1,414.0 0.389 0.392 1,190,835 1,441,400
6 2,275.7 0.381 0.382 1,845,625

0 429.0 306,138 418,950
§ 82.0 93,754

0 640.0 269,537 648,400
0 240.0 375,543 237,950
0 344.0 142,807 338,550
0 701.0 491,248 699,950
0 4,758.0 0.378 0.379 5,072,880 4,768,600
2 28.2

«4 -17,614.3 15,482,225 17,602,650

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. Includes small_amounts of American-
Pima in AR, FL, GA, and TN. 2/ Estimates available only for these six states.
Three-year average. 3/ Not adjusted for cross-State movement. 1990 data:
Bureau of Census. 4/ 1991 vevised. Bf Bales withheld to avoid disclosure of
individual gins, but are included in U totals.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 A-18 NASS, USDA


Sweet Cherries: Total Production, California,
1990-91 and Forecasted May 1, 1992

1990 1991 1992
Tons
CA 22,000 36,000 25,000

Almonds (shelled basis): Utilized Production,
California, 1990-91 and Forecasted May 1, 1992

Utilized Production

State
1,000 Pounds
CA : 660,000 490,000 570,000
1/ Revised.

Avocados: Bearing Acreage, Yield, Production, Price,
and Value, Florida and Hawaii, 1990-91
Bearing : Yield Production Utilization
Year : Acreage : Per

---~ Acres ----
FL :
1990-91 : 9,000 2.18 19,600 19,600 19,225 375
1991-92 : 8,600 3.29 28,300 28,300 28,300 ooo
HI :
1990-91 : 250 1.80 450 450 450
1991-92 280 1.50 420 420 420
FL :
1990-91 : 695 120 684 13,361 45 13,406
1991-92 : 476 -- 476 13,471 -- 13,471
HI :
1990-91 : 900 -- 900 405 -- 405
1991-92 940 -- 940 395 -- 395

1/ Bearing acreage estimates are based on periodic orchard inventory surveys.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 A-10 NASS, USDA


Weather conditions during April were mostly warm and dry. What little rain
fell was welcomed by farmers. The dry conditions are expected to lower fruit
set and yields in coming months.

Area devoted to papayas totaled 3,875 acres in April, 2 percent lower than
March but 13 percent higher than last April. Harvested area, totaling

2,180 acres, was 1 percent higher than last month and 14 percent higher than
a year ago.

Tobacco, 1991 Revised: U.S. tobacco production totaled 1.66 billion pounds in
1991, 2 percent more than in 1990 and 22 percent above

the production two years ago. The increased production was a result of an

increase in harvested acres for all types except Flue-cured tobacco. Growers

harvested 763,760 acres, 4 percent above 1990 and 13 percent above 1989.

Yield per acre averaged 2,178 pounds per acre, compared with 2,218 last year,

and 2,016 in 1989.

Flue-cured production totaled 912 million pounds, 3 percent less than a year
earlier but 13 percent more than in 1989. Acres for harvest amounted to
402,600 acres, 3 percent less than in 1990. Yield per acre, at 2,265 pounds,
exceeded the previous year by 12 pounds.

Burley production totaled 658 million pounds, up 10 percent from a year ago
and 36 percent in excess of the 1989 output. The change from last year
reflects an increase in acreage. The 312,000 acres harvested were 15 and

28 percent above 1990 and 1989, respectively. This year's yield averaged
aa Pounds per acre, 95 pounds less than a year ago but 135 pounds more than
in 1989.

Dark fire-cured output, at 32.9 million pounds, was 6 percent less than the
previous year. Harvested area, at 16,020 acres, was up 4 percent from

one year ago. The average yield per acre of 2,053 pounds was 212 pounds lower
than in 1990.

Production of dark air-cured tobacco at 8.90 million pounds was up 16 percent
from a year earlier. An increase of 27 percent in acreage more than offset a
179 pound drop in yield.

All cigar-type production of 31.7 million pounds in 1991 was 5 percent more
than in 1990 and 24 percent above the 1989 output. Compared with last year,
filler production was 5 percent larger. Binder production was up 8 percent.
Production of wrapper was 16 percent below a year ago.

Cotton, 1991 Revised: All cotton production in the United States totaled
17.6 million bales in 1991, 14 percent above 1990. The
increase was due to larger acreage and higher yields. Upland cotton
production, at 17.2 million bales, rose 14 percent above the 1990 level, and
American-Pima production totaled 398,400 bales, up 11 percent from 1990.

The area planted to all cotton totaled 14.1 million acres, a 14 percent
increase from 1990. Harvested area, at 13.0 million acres, was up 10 percent
from the previous year. Abandonment during 1991 totaled 8 percent compared
with 5 percent in 1990. An October freeze in Texas forced producers to
abandon 14 percent of their acreage. Yields for the U.S. averaged 652 pounds

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-9 NASS, USDA


Nevada was the only State in the severe drought range and just on the edge of
the range. Pasture and range feed conditions were down from last year on the
East Coast from Maine to Georgia except New Jersey. The Ohio River Valley
area was also down from last year.

Oranges: The U.S. all orange crop is forecast at 8.84 million tons for the
1991-92 season, up slightly from the April 1 forecast and 13 percent
more than last season. The Florida all orange forecast is 139 million boxes,
unchanged from last month but 8 percent less than last season. The production
forecast for early and mid-season oranges in Florida is unchanged at
83.4 million boxes. Harvest is complete. The Florida Valencia forecast, at
56.0 million boxes, is also unchanged from last month but 12 percent less than
last year. The Valencia harvest in Florida is 69 percent complete. The
forecast for California Navels, at 35.0 million boxes, is unchanged from
April 1 and 122 percent higher than last season's freeze reduced crop. As of
May 1, California's Navel crop harvest is approximately 86 percent complete.
California's Valencia forecast is 31.0 million boxes, up 3 percent from last
month. This year's crop is more than three times the size of last year's
freeze damaged crop. Harvest has begun in al? areas but the amount picked to
date has been minimal.

The Arizona all orange crop forecast was carried forward from last month. The
crop is expected to be 2.34 million boxes, 34 percent more than last season.
The Texas all orange crop is expected to be 30,000 boxes. Harvest is
complete.

The changes in U.S. all orange production between the May 1 forecast and final
production averaged 3.54 million boxes over the past ten seasons ranging from
a low of 800,000 boxes in 1984-85 to a high of 8.75 million boxes in the
1986-87 season.

Florida Frozen Concentrated Juice Yield: The 1991-92 forecast of all Frozen
Concentrated Orange Juice Yield

(FCOJ) for Florida is 1.54 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast

projects the final yield.as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors

Association. The final 1990-91 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was

1.45 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

Grapefruit: The May 1 U.S. grapefruit forecast, at 2.19 million tons, is down

2 percent from the previous month and down 3 percent from last
season. The Florida all grapefruit forecast, at 42.4 million boxes, is down
2 percent from April and down 6 percent from Jast year. Harvest of Florida
grapefruit is virtually complete.

California's "Desert Valley" grapefruit crop forecast, which is carried
forward from April 1, is 3.50 million boxes, unchanged from the 1990-91
level. California's "Other Areas” grapefruit crop forecast, also carried
forward from last month, is 6.00 million boxes, up 33 percent from last
season's crop.

Arizona's forecast, carried forward from last month, is 2.20 million boxes,
down 8 percent from 1990-91. The Texas grapefruit forecast is also unchanged
at 65,000 boxes. Harvest is complete.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-6 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed: Condition by State and United States,
1991-92 and Average 1/

State Average : 1991 : 1992
: 1981-80: :

NV 81 66 49
NH 90 97 76
NJ 84 91 96
NM 70 60 90
NY 84 88 85
NC 83 92 90
ND 65 53 83
OH 85 89 85
OK 79 71 92
OR 86 74 87
PA 81 88 82
RI 90 96 78
SC 75 88 86
SD 70 79 80
TN 84 89 81
TX 66 71 88
UT 80 71 77
VT 89 93 72
VA 84 91 85
WA 86 82 83
WW 78 90 70
WI 75 85 70
WY 80 82 86
US 77 79 84

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 A-7 NASS, USDA


Stocks on Farms, b
December 1 ani

State and United States,
May 1, 1989-92

Dec 1

Hay:

State
1989

AL 1,232
AZ 11
AR 1,560
CA 1,875
co 1,898
CT 111
DE 49
FL 383
GA 1,199
1D 2,183
IL 2,398
IN 1,774
IA 5,121
KS 4,046
KY 45676
LA 601
ME 269
MD 421
MA 145
MI 2,811
MN 4,800
MS 1,248
MO 6,358
MT 3,800
NE 45108
NV 658
NH 107
NJ 147
NM : 599
NY : 3,177
NC : 859
ND : 2,960
OH : 2,322
OK : 4,092
OR > 1,243
PA > 3,155
RI : ll
SC : 310
SD > 4,505
TN : 2,904
TX : 7,570
UT : 1,013
VT : 513
VA : 2,180
WA >: 1,351
wv : 984
WI : 5,737
WY : 1,616
US : 101,194

2,340
13986
1028
7,022
23263

104,873

4,541
15764
43068
1,684
23577
10
345
7,482
25839
8,730
13593
411
1,989
25228
754
6,795
23136

111,578

130
1,287
840
2,204
238
151
693
225
228
1,454
266

27,089

297
162
780
336
251
2,371
436

27,023

Crop Production
May 1992

A-6

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Cotton: Marketing Year Average Price and Value of Production
by State and United States, 1990-91

Crop : Price per Value of
And : Pound Production
State 0 t=+---------------------------:

1991 1/

AL 0.690 0.560 124,200 148,646
AZ 0.692 0.598 269,382 257,762
AR 0.657 0.574 340,904 434,220
CA 0.769 0.658 1,009,174 804,760
FL 0.680 0.554 15,667 19,519
GA 0.694 0.601 134,914 208, 283
KS 0.580 0.530 195 331
LA 0.661 0.529 373,439 359,043
MS 0.654 0.552 580,752 602,784
MO 0.653 0.605 98,420 124,582
NM 0.709 0.547 32,330 16,541
NC 0.690 0.593 87,106 182,170
OK 0.631 0.490 115,700 56,448
Sc 0.682 0.604 47,467 99,732
IN 0.658 0.538 156,341 181,026
TX 0.632 0.544 1,506,182 1,229,875
VA 0.690 0.593 053 8,027
US 0.671 0.570 4,894,226 4,733,749
Amer-Pima
AZ 1.040 1.010 96,845 89,446
CA 1.070 1.010 29,481 70,878
MS 0.900 0.750 691 252
NM 1.170 1.060 13,759 9,667
TMX 1.050 0.980 40,824 22,579
US 1.060 1.010 181,600 192,822
All
AL 0.690 0.560 124,200 148,646
AZ 0.759 0.668 366,227 347,208
AR 0.657 0.574 340,904 434,220
CA 0.775 0.677 1,038,655 875,638
FL 9.680 0.554 15,667 19,519
GA 0.694 0.601 134,914 208, 283
KS 0.580 0.530 195 331
LA 0.661 0.529 373,439 359,043
MS 0.654 Q.552 581,443 603 ,036
MO 0.653 0.605 98,420 124,582
NM 0.804 0.666 46,089 26,208
NC 0.690 0.593 87,106 182,170
OK 0.631 0.490 115,700 56,448
Sc 0.682 0.604 47,467 99,732
TN 0.658 0.538 156,341 181,026
1X 0.639 0.548 1,547,006 1,252,454
VA 0.690 0.593 2,053 8,027
US 0.682 0.583 5,075,826 4,926,571
1/ Average to April 1, 1992
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 A-19 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes
The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.
Net lbs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA Desert
& AZ-64, CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80, lemons-76, tangelos and Temples-90;
tangerines-CA and AZ-75, FL-95.

Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Due to the severe freeze of December 1989, TX had no commercial production
for the 1990-91 season.

TX forecast at 425 tons for 1991-92.

Spring Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted May 1, 1992

1,000 Acres ~-- Cwt ---

AL : 2.5 3.5 120 160 855 300 560
AZ : 6.0 6.1 295 290 1,794 1,770 1,769
CA : 21.8 19.3 380 390 8,438 8,284 7,527
FL :

Hastings : 27.0 27.0 190 240 6,888 5,130 6,480

Other : 8.4 7.0 175 250 1,826 1,470 1,750
NC : 17.0 17.3 _ 170 190 3,240 2,890 3,287
TX 4.8 4.8 165 160 1,122 792 768
US 87.5 85.0 236 260 24,163 20,636 22,141

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 A-9 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

wel ee May 2, 1992 OS
# t ISSUED WEEKLY

—~) WoaA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY tendon retina Sperm

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-1 NASS, USDA


Crop ba Aercutaral
e Statistics
Production Service
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Washington, D.C.

Released May 11, 1992, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts refer
to May 1, 1992.

Winter Wheat Up 18 Percent

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.62 billion bushels, up 18 percent from
1991. Yields are expected to average 37.3 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels
from last year. Acres for grain harvest are expected to total 43.3 million
acres, up 10 percent from 1991.

Citrus production as of May 1 is forecast at 12.2 million tons, up 9 percent
from the 1990-91 season. The increase jis the result of larger citrus crops in
California following last season's low production due to the December 1990
freeze.

Orange production as of May 1 is forecast at 8.84 million tons, up slightly
from April 1 and 13 percent higher than last season. The increase from last
season is primarily due to more production in California following last year's
reduced crop caused by the December 1990 freeze.

All grapefruit production is forecast at 2.19 million tons, down 2 percent from
April 1 and down 3 percent from the 1990-91 season. Harvest is virtually
complete in Florida.

Index is located at the end of this report. For information call (202) 720-
2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (5-92)


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Class and Type,
by State and United States, 1990-91 1/

Production

1990: 1991

: ----- Acres ---- - 1,000 Pounds --

Class 1, Flue-cured
We 11, Old and
iddle Belts

: 2,
tA : 40,000 39,000 2,120 2,260 84,800 88,140
: 146,000 143,000 2,098 2,271 306,340 324,740

: 106,000 104,000 090 2,275 221,540 236,600

Type 12, Eastern NC
e

NC [135,000 129,000 2,370 2,345 319,950 302,505
Type 13, NC Border &
Belt

35,000 33,000 2,350 80,150 77,550

: 2,290

Ni : 51,000 51,000 2,155 2,180 109,905 111,180

US : 86,000 84,000 2,210 2,247 190,055 188,730
Type 14, GA-FL Belt

L : 6,900 6,600 2,760 2,320 19,044 15,312

GA : 43,000 40,000 2,415 2,015 103,845 80,600

US : 49,900 46,600 2,463 2,058 122,889 95,912
Total 11-14 : 416,900 402,600 2,253 2,265 939,234 911,887

Class 2, Fire-cured
Mth 21, VA Belt

Type 22, Eastern
hs trict

2,100 2,500 1,315 1,425 2,762 3,563

: 3,150 3,250 2,450 2,080
i : 6,600 6,600 2,305 2,100 1
: 93750 93850 2,352 2,093 2

7,718 6,760
5,213 13,860
23931 203620
"Be 23, Western

istrict

: 3,100 3,150 2,600 2,400 8,060 7,560

iN H 490 520 2,500 2,200 1,225 13144
US : 3,590 3,670 2,586 2,372 9,285 8,704

Total 21-23 : 15,440 16,020 2,265 2,053 34,978 32,887

Class 3, Air- cured :

Class an Light

ATR-CURED

Type 31, Burley
N 7,000 8,800 2,150 2,150 15,050 18,920
KY 185,000 233,000 2,270 2,150 419,950 457,950
MO 2,600 :000 2,280 2,275 5,928 6,825
NC 8,200 9,000 2,195 2,000 17,999 18,000
OH 9,700 10,400 1,950 2,190 18,915 22,776
TN 46,000 54,000 2,060 1,950 94,760 105,300
VA 113000 113900 23055 23100 22,605 24,990
Ww 1,700 1,900 1,600 1,800 2,720 3,420

US : 2713200 312;000 23205 2,110 597,927 658,181
Type 32, Southern MD:
e

MD : 7,100 8,600 1,360 1,500 9,656 12,900
PA 2/ : 3'600 3,800 1,850 1,850 6,660 7,030
US : 10,700 12,400 1,525 1,607 16,316 19,930
Total 31-32 : 281,900 324,400 2,179 27090 6143243 6783111
See footnotes at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 A-12 NASS, USDA


Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, Hawaii, by Month, 1991-92

Fresh Production

-- 1,000 Pounds --

Mar 3,155 3,970
Apr 3,890 3,925
May 3,350
Jun 2,895
Jul 3,290
Aug 3,205
Cumulative Fresh Production: Jan-Apr 15,075 17,940

Bananas, Papayas, and Taro: Area Harvested, Yield,
and Production, Hawaii, 1990-91 1/

Bananas : 930 890
Papayas 2/ : 2,400 2,025
Taro : 420 600

Total Production

1990 1991
Bananas: 11,300 11,400
Papayas 2/ : N/A N/A
Taro : 5,800 7,000

1/ 1991 revised.
2/ Area harvested is average during the year.
N/A = not available.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 A-11 NASS, USDA


showed good maturity and size. Desert grapefruit picking wound down by the
end of April. Lemons in the south coast were picked with good volumes
reported. Valencia orange harvest was underway in all areas of the State;
only a minimal amount had been picked and size remains small. Navel orange
harvest was almost over with 90 percent of the crop harvested. New citrus and
avocado crops bloomed with a heavy set reported.

Spring Potatoes: Production is forecast at 22.1 million cwt, up 7 percent
from last year but 8 percent below 1990. The May 1 forecast

is 3 percent above the April 1 projection as early yields in the Southeast are

better than expected. Area for harvest is estimated at 85,000 acres, down

3 percent from a year ago and 11 percent below two years ago. The average

yield, at 260 cwt per acre, is up 24 cwt from last year and 6 cwt above 1990.

The California crop is a week to ten days ahead of normal, as early harvest
started the last third of April. The crop Tooks good with Tittle insect
damage. Heat in Arizona accelerated harvest in early fields. Acreage in
Arizona and California was adjusted downward. In Texas, wet weather led to
lower yields and more disease than last year.

Harvest is active in the Hastings, Florida area. Early yields are better than
expected with good size and quality. Digging is active in other Florida areas
and most growers expect to finish by the end of the month. North Carolina
harvest is a month away, but the potato crop is making good growth and yields
are expected to average 20 cwt per acre above last year.

Sweet Cherries: The first forecast of California's sweet cherry production is

25,000 tons, 31 percent less than 1991 but 14 percent more
than 1990. The crop is lighter than last year partially due to pollinating
problems. This lighter crop is contributing to excellent sizing. Harvest of
Burlats began in late April. Good quality is expected.

Almonds: The May 1 forecast of the 1992 California almond crop is 570 million

pounds, shelled basis, 16 percent higher than last year's crop of
490 million pounds. The 1992 almond bloom occurred under good conditions but
cool and foggy weather following the bloom may have reduced total production.
Younger trees appear to have the heaviest set this year.

Avocados: Total production of Florida avocados far the 1991-92 season was

28,300 tons, 44 percent more than fast season's freeze reduced
crop. The average price was $476 per ton, down 30 percent from the 1990-91
average price. Bearing acreage was estimated at 8,600 acres, down 4 percent
from the 9,000 acres for the previous season.

The 1991-92 Hawaii avocado crop totaled 420 tons, down 7 percent from the
previous season. The average price was $940 per ton, up 4 percent from last
season. Bearing acreage increased 12 percent to 280 acres.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.93 million pounds

for April, 1 percent lower than March but 1 percent higher than a
year ago. Year-to-date fresh sales were 19 percent higher than the same
period last year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-8 NASS, USDA


The change in U.S. grapefruit production between the May forecast and final
production averaged 994,000 boxes over the past ten seasons, ranging from a
tow of 50,000 boxes in 1984-85 to a high of 2.15 million boxes in the 1981-82
season.

Tangerines: The U.S. all tangerine forecast of 222,000 tons is unchanged from

Jast month and 35 percent higher than the 1990-91 utilized
production. This forecast includes the Dancy, Robinson, Honey, and Sunburst
varieties of tangerines in Florida, as well as production of California and
Arizona tangerines.

The Florida forecast is 2.60 million boxes, unchanged from April 1 and up
33 percent from 1990-91. There are only a few Honey tangerines left to
harvest. The Arizona and California forecasts, which were carried forward
from last month, are expected to total 900,000 and 1.70 million boxes,
respectively.

Tangelos: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-early citrus fruit, is

forecast at 2.60 million boxes, unchanged from the April estimate
and down 2 percent from last season's utilized production. Tangelo harvest is
complete.

Temples: Florida's Temple forecast of 2.40 million boxes, is unchanged from
the April 1 estimate and 4 percent less than last season's crop.
Harvest is nearly complete.

Florida Citrus: Most groves and trees were in good to excellent condition in
April. Rainfall ranged from normal to surplus in more than
half of the reporting stations throughout the citrus belt. Low volume
irrigation was used primarily for fertigation on young groves. Trees have
produced an abundance of new growth. The bloom cycle ended around the
first of April following four to six weeks of prolonged bloom lengthened by
unseasonably cool temperatures. By the end of April, trees had adjusted to
the crop size they can hold for next season. Post-bloom nutritional sprays
were applied across the State on trees of all ages.

Valencia orange harvest was active during April with a weekly average above
5 million boxes. As of May 3, an estimated 28 percent of the late oranges
remain unharvested. Fruit sizes are above average with high quality yields.
Harvest of seedless grapefruit was virtually over by the first of May with
less than 2 percent remaining to be picked. Remaining grapefruit are
primarily in the lower east coast. Hedging and topping of harvested groves
was almost complete by the end of the month.

California Fruits and Nuts: Cultural activities during April focused on

thinning, weed control, irrigation,
fertilization, pesticide application, and other orchard floor work. Grape
vineyards bloomed and, by the end of April, fruit were forming. Avocado
picking was active and so was stonefruit harvest in the desert. Stonefruit in
the Central Valley were immature but sizing well. Cherry harvest began with
good quality fruit picked, but set is lighter than last year. Nut crops

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-7 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit: Utilized Production, by State and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted May 1, 1992 1/

Utilized Production : Utilized Production
Crop : Boxes : Ton Equivalent
and {oro eo------- 2-7 +--+ ---------------- +--+ --~--------------
State : 1989-90 : 1990-91 : 1991-92 : 1989-90: 1990-91: 1991-92

Early Mid &
Navel 3/ :
AZ 4/ : 390 550 740 14 20 28
CA : 44,300 15,800 35,000 1,661 593 1,313
FL : 68,100 87,500 83,400 3,064 3,937 3,753
IX 5/ : 1,050 20 44 1
US : 113,840 103,850 119,160 4,783 4,550 5,095
Valencia :
AZ 4/ : 1,220 1,200 1,600 45 45 60
CA : 27,100 9,800 31,000 1,016 368 1,163
FL : 42,100 64,000 56,000 1,894 2,880 2,520
TX 5/ 6/ : 155 10 7
we : 70,575 75,000 88,610 2,962 3,293 3,743
All :
AZ 4/ : 1,610 1,750 2,340 59 65 88
CA : 71,400 25,600 66,000 2,677 961 2,476
FL : 110,200 151,500 139,400 4,958 6,817 6,273
TX 5/ : 1,205 30 51 1
US : 184,415 178,850 207,770 7,745 7,843 8,838
Temples :
FL : 1,400 2,500 2,400 63 113 108
Grapefruit :
White Seedless :
FL : 18,000 21,700 19,100 765 922 812
Colored Seedless  :
FL 16,300 21,800 22,100 693 926 939
Other :
ait : 1,400 1,600 1,200 60 68 51
AZ 4/ : 2,200 2,400 2,200 70 77 70
CA 4/ :
Desert : 3,500 3,500 3,500 112 112 112
Other Areas : 5,900 4,500 6,000 198 150 201
Total : 9,400 8,000 9,500 310 262 313
FL : 35,700 45,100 42,400 1,518 1,916 1,802
TX $/ : 2,000 65 80 3
US : 49,300 55,500 54,165 1,978 2,255 2,188
Tangerines :
AZ 4/ : 600 600 900 22 23 34
CA 4/ : 1,650 1,300 1,700 62 49 64
FL : 1,700 1,950 2,600 80 92 124
US : 3,950 3,850 5,200 164 164 222
Lemons 4/ :
AZ 4 2,800 4,100 5,100 106 156 194
CA : 15,800 14,900 14,500 600 566 551
US : 18,600 19,000 19,600 706 722 745
Tangelos :
FL 2,950 2,650 2,600 132 119 117
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 A-8 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted cotton objective yield
surveys in 6 States which accounted for 78 percent of the 1991 U.S. Upland
cotton production. Plots were randomly selected from a scientific sample of
cotton fields. Two sample plots per field were visited monthly from about
August 1 through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The
"large bolls" are total bolls counted from August through harvest. This count
includes only bolls greater than one inch in diameter and burrs.

Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss
by State, 1982-1991

Arizona Arkansas
Year : : Harvest : : Harvest
Large Bolls Loss : Large Bolis  : Loss
1/ Per Acre : lV : Per Acre
Number Pounds Number Pounds
1982): 1,079 134 566 81
1983: 1,215 115 546 109
1984 2/:
1985: 1,275 113 637 94
1986: 1,249 120 587 126
1987: 1,293 179 603 77
1988: 1,176 108 717 63
1989; 1,232 102 578 57
1990: 1,162 135 669 74
1991 : 1,083 91 782 89
California Louisiana
1982; 773 117 711 66
1983: 723 105 530 59
1984 2/:
1985: 847 145 595 65
1986: 807 113 705 77
1987: 821 128 719 89
1988: 797 137 710 73
1989; 802 125 708 83
1990: 843 131 888 78
1991 2 814 1lo 770 68
1/ Total large bolls in 40 feet of row.
2/ Program temporarily suspended.
--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 - A-22 NASS, USDA


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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-15 NASS, USDA




spring wheat planting was 63% complete in the five major States, 6 points
behind last year and 2 points behind the historic average. Barley planting
was near completion in the Pacific Northwest, and was active in the Rocky
Mountains. Planting of oats was active across the Nation during April.

Corn planting was in full swing in Georgia and Texas entering April, and
beginning in Kansas, Missouri, and North Carolina. Planting gained momentum
until late-month storms slowed activity, particularly in the Corn Belt. By
May 3, 28% of the corn crop was planted in the 17 major producing States,
compared with last year's progress of 29% and the historic average of 39%.

Rains were limiting progress of cotton planting in the Southwest and Texas
early in April, but improved weather later in the month allowed planting to
progress rapidly. Planting reached 38% complete in the 14 major producing
States by May 3, 14 percentage points ahead of last year and 5 points ahead of
the historic average. Planting was in the early stages in the Southeast,
gaining momentum in the Delta and Texas, and well along in the West.

Relatively light rains in the Delta allowed rice planting to progress much
faster than usual. By May 3, planting was 76% complete, 40 percentage points
ahead of last year, and 24 points ahead of the historic average. Planting was
gaining momentum in California and was well along in the Delta.

Grain sorghum planting got underway in April and outpaced both last year's
progress and the historic average. Planting was 26% complete in the 12 major
States on May 3, compared with 22% for last year and the average. Planting
was over half complete in Texas and the Delta, and was beginning in several of
the more Northern States.

Winter Wheat: Production for 1992 is forecast at 1.62 billion bushels, up
18 percent from 1991. Yields are expected to average

37.3 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from last season. Area for grain

harvest is placed at 43.3 million acres, up 10 percent from last year.

U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION
1983-1992

o BILLION BUSHELS

2.06 2.03

1.83 N
1.62
152 1 66

1.46 1.37

N

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-4 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat:

and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted May 1, 1992

Area Harvested

1992

- 1,000 Acres -

1991
AL : 110
AZ : 29
AR : 930
CA : 410
co : 2,300
DE : 67
FL : 25
GA : 425
ID : 700
IL : 1,400
IN : 720
IA : 50
KS : 11,000
KY : 400
LA : 190
MD : 195
MI : 560
MN : 55
MS : 250
MO : 1,500
MT : 1,800
NE : 2,100
NV : 4
NJ : 26
NM : 320
NY : 110
NC : 480
ND : 90
OH : 1,080
OK : 5,000
OR : 800
PA : 175
SC : 275
sD : 1,300
TN : 320
1X : 2,800
UT : 130
VA : 250
WA : 700
w : 10
WI : 120
wy : 190
US : 39,396

95

44
900
560
2,350
70

40
325
800
1,100
550
55
11,100
420
160
215
610
45
260
1,350
2,100
2,050
5

30
320
110
470
185
1,115
6,100
835
175
270
1,400
310
4,000
115
260
2,100
12
120
190

Production

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State

472,000
20,000
12,870

9,880
41,250
2,550
15,600
76,000
87,500
85,500
420
1,247
8,100
7,105
22,550
4,320
79,650

201,600
54,600
10,500
14,440
57,600
17,640

130,200

6,000
12,220
138,600
552
9,805
5,945

2,030,874

2,750
2,900
20,460
32,800
71,300
3,551
575
14,025
49,000
44,800
28,800
1,700
363,000
10,800
3,800
9,750
24,080
1,980
4,500
48,000
72,000
67,200
360
1,196
8,000
5,390
19,200
2,970
52,920
140,000
41,600
7,700
8,525
45,500
7,680
84,000
4,680
12,250
40,600
450
5,880
5,510

1,372, 182

366,300
19,740
5,120
10,320
30,500
1,485
9,880
54,000
65,100
63,550
450
1,440
8,960
5,280
19,270
6,105
54,635
183,000
46,760
8,400
10,530
42,000
12,400
128,000
4,945
13,000
126,000
540
5,160
5,130

1,618,017

Crop Production
May 1992

Yield
1991 1992
--- Bushels --
25.0 40.0
100.0 98.0
22.0 37.0
80.0 80.0
31.0 30.0
53.0 42.0
23.0 36.0
33.0 38.0
70.0 70.0
32.0 49.0
40.0 44.0
34.0 45.0
33.0 33.0
27.0 47.0
20.0 32.0
50.0 48.0
43.0 50.0
36.0 33.0
18.0 38.0
32.0 40.0
40.0 31.0
32.0 31.0
90.0 90.0
46.0 48.0
25.0 28.0
49.0 48.0
40.0 41.0
33.0 33.0
49.0 49.0
28.0 30.0
52.0 56.0
44.0 48.0
31.0 39.0
35.0 30.0
24.0 40.0
30.0 32.0
36.0 43.0
49.0 50.0
58.0 60.0
45.0 45.0
49.0 43.0
29.0 27.0
34.8 37.3
A-4

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Tobacco:

Price and Value by Class and Type,

by State and United States, 1990-91 1/ (continued)

Class and Type

:Marketing Year Average Price :

Received by Farmers

1991

Value of
Production

1991

Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3b, Dark
Air-cured

Type 35, One Sucker
Belt

Type 36, Green River
Belt
KY

VA
Total 35-37

Class 4, Cigar Filler
Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder
Class 5a, CT Valley
Binder

Type 51, CT Valley
Broadleaf

Class 5b, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI
WI

Type 55, Northern WI
WI

Total 54-55
Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper :

Type 61, CT Valley
Shade-grown
cT

MA

US
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61

All Tobacco

Type 37, VA Sun-cured :
Belt :

- Dollars per Pound -

1.899 1.893
1.854 1.816
1.891 1.878
1.787 1.741
1.456 1.434
1.858 1.833
1.390 1.430
2.500 2.600
2.500 2.600
2.500 2.600
1,500 1.550
1.500 1,550
1.500 - 1.550
1.580 1.642
21.000 18.000
21.000 18.000
21.000 18.000
3.199 2.701
1.738 1.773

--- 1,000 Dollars ~--

8,546 9,654
1,891 2,216
10,437 11,870
3,619 4,220
149 224
14,205 16,314
18,237 19,641
2,423 3,050
478 533
2,901 3,583
13,992 14,387
6,027 7,837
20,019 22,224
22,920 25,807
42,798 29,844
12,894 10,260
55,692 40,104
96,849 85,552
2,827,167 2,949,632

d/ Revised.

Crop Production
May 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Cotton:

State, and United States, 1990-91

Area Planted, Harvested, and Yield, by Type,
1/

Area Planted

Area Harvested

1991

1990

: 0 410
: 0 360.
: ‘0:1, 000.
: 0 980.
: 0 50.
: 0 430.
: 1.5 2.
: -0 875.
: 0 1,245.
: -0 332
: -0 69.
: 0 460.
: 0 440.
: 0 211.
: 0 620.
: 0 6,300.
: 5.3 17.
US : 12,116.8 13,801.
Amer-Pima:
AZ : 125.0 106
CA : 25.7 64
MS : 1.3 0
NM : 19.3 19
TX : 60.0 60
US : 231.3 250
All :
AL : 380.0 410
AZ : 475.0 466
AR : 770.0 1,000
CA : 1,125.7 13044
FL : 37.0 50
GA : 355.0 430
KS : 1.5 2
LA : 810.0 875
MS : 1,231.3 1,245
MO : 248.0 332
NM : 88.3 88
NC : 201.0 460
OK 380.0 440
Sc 155.0 211
IN 525.0 620
TX 5,560.0 6,360
VA 5.3 17
US 12,348.1 14,052

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
7

mR ODNMOO

+H NUSDeDOMOWOODDOD000

1,000 Acres ---
0

378.
348.
750.
1,090.
36.
350.

0
0

0

0

0

0

2

7)
1,220.0
.0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

5

Cwwnge

ny
ny
~
an

405.0 476 655
359.0 1,119 1,201
980.0 692 772
977.0 1,204 1,252
49.0 640 719
427.0 555 812
1.8 280 347
820.0 715 828
1,230.0 728 888
327.0 641 630
65.0 735 465
457.0 631 672
380.0 496 303
210.0 452 786
610.0 461 552
5,400.0 477 419
17.7 562 765
12,715.5 632 650
103.0 751 860
64.0 1,080 1,097
0.6 591 560
19.4 609 470
57.0 682 404
244.0 758 784
405.0 476 655
462.0 1,022 1,125
980.0 692 772
1,041.0 1,201 1,242
49.0 640 719
427.0 555 812
1.8 280 347
820.0 715 828
1,230.6 728 888
327.0 641 630
84.4 706 466
457.0 631 672
380.0 496 303
210.0 452 786
610.0 461 552
5,457.0 479 419
17.7 562 765
12,959.5 634 652

1/ 1991 revised.

Crop Production
May 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,

1991 and Forecasted May 1, 1992
(Metric Units)

Area Harvested

Area Planted

17,531,580

Crop : Satelite atest atetatatatatatetetetetatatetatetatatatatetatatetateneaatatetened
: 1991 1992 1991
Hectares
Winter Wheat + 20,659,020 20,358,340 15,943,170
Spring Potatoes : 36,500 35,530 35,410

34,400

Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1991 and Forecasted May 1, 1992
(Metric Units)

Metric Tons

Winter Wheat : 2.34 37,344,670

Spring Potatoes : 26.43 28.43 936,030 978,080

Almonds (CA) : 222,260

Hay Stocks on Farms 1/: 24,514,850

Citrus Fruits 2/ : 1990-91 1991-92
Oranges : 7,115,050 7,983,230
Grapefruit : 2,045,700 2,017,580

The December 1, 1991, estimate was 101,221,860 metric tons.

i
2/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month.

average is 77 percent.

44,035,210
1,004,300
258,550
25,981,770

1991-92

8,017,700
1,984,920

The 1981-90

3/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the

completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 A-3

NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production" report will be released on June 10, 1992, at

3:00 p.m. ET.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Martin Owens, Rice, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-2157
Vaughn Siegenthaler, Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068
Charles Van Lahr, Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369
Herb Vanderberry, Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-9526
Herb Eldridge, Sugar, Tobacco, Hay (202) 720-3843
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Steve Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Jim Brewster, Fruits, Fresh Vegetables (202) 720-7688
Arvin Budge, Potatoes, Dry Beans, Processing Vegetables (202) 720-4285
Kirby Cavett, Peanuts (202) 720-8843
Kevin Hintzman, Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 720-5412
Roger Latham, Cotton (202) 720-5944
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-14 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

r May 2, 1992
Next Chart May 19, 1992
iv 7
‘tevin 7 ee Noonste
: FER SEVERET x MOIST
EMI ce wot most ¢
aN o
@ 4!
Hf AT
1 NS J ‘atau sos
SEVERE/ alo! \ ( ey \. mooeRare
“ MODERATES VORX ‘
“s )
i) fox root A >
H . p: SEVERE
ff MOORRATE S
= a
(C ashre
MOIST ~?
MOIST, }
NOMUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY 4.400 patmina Sern

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production

Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992

B-2 NASS, USDA



Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1991 and Forecasted May 1, 1992
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

Crop aa
1991 1992 1991 1992
~ 1,000 Acres 7
Winter Wheat : 51,049 50,306 39,396 43,321
Spring Potatoes : 90.2 87.8 87.5 85.0

Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1991 and Forecasted May 1, 1992
(Domestic Units)

Production

Winter Wheat Bu: 34.8 37.3 1,372,182

poring Potatoes Cwt : 236 260 20,636 21,563

Almonds (CA) Lb : 490,000

Hay Stocks on Farmsl/Ton : 27,023

Pasture and :

Range Feed 2/ Pct : 79

Citrus Fruits 3/ : 1990-91 1991-92 1991-92
Oranges 7,843 8,800 8,838
Grapefruit 2,255 2,224 2,188

1/ The December 1, 1991, estimate was 111,578,000 tons.

2/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1981-90
average is 77 percent.

3/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

This report was approved on May 11, 1992, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural

Statistics Board.

OSes —$_

Acting secretary of
Agriculture
Ann Veneman

Crop Production
May 1992

kA Me

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Rich Allen

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


per acre, 18 pounds above 1990 and 38 pounds above the yields realized in
1989.

Planting of the 1991 crop ended Jater than normal in the Delta, due to
excessive rainfall. Standing water caused some replanting, but the crop
developed rapidly and yields averaged 774 pounds per acre, up 102 pounds from
1990 yields. Production totaled 6.40 million bales, up 30 percent from 1990.
Louisiana recorded a record high production and Mississippi's was the largest
since 1948. Record high yields were established in both Louisiana, at

828 pounds and Mississippi at 888 pounds.

Production in the Southeast increased 90 percent from the previous year's
drought affected crop, to 2.26 million bales. Yields averaged 723 pounds, up
196 pounds from the 1990 yield. Geargia and South Carolina set record high
yields of 812 pounds and 786 pounds, respectively.

Western States' production declined 4 percent from the previous year to

3.51 million bales. A 7 percent decrease in harvested acres from 1990 caused
the decline, but the region's yield averaged 1,202 pounds per harvested acre,
up 37 pounds from 1990.

The Texas-Oklahoma production, at 4.95 million bales, was down 7 percent from
1990. Yields averaged 411 pounds per harvested acre, a 67 pound decrease from
the previous year.

Ginnings totaled 17.6 million equivalent 480-pound net weight bales during the
1991 season. This level compares with 15.5 million equivalent 480-pound bales
ginned in 1990.

The preliminary 1991 marketing year average price received by farmers for lint
is 58.3 cents per pound, down 9.9 cents from 1990. The value of lint for the
1991 crop totaled $4.93 billion, down 3 percent from 1990.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed production in 1991] totaled 6.93 million tons, up

16 percent from 1990. This crop is the largest since 1937. The
preliminary 1991 marketing year price received is $71.50 per ton compared with
$121.00 in 1990. Value of cottonseed for the 1991 crop totals $494 million,
down 32 percent from the previous year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-10 NASS, USDA


May 1 conditions indicate higher soft_red winter and white wheat yields than
last year. Hard red winter wheat yields are slightly below 1991, largely due
to lower Montana and South Dakota yield prospects.

Acres for grain are up 11 percent in hard red winter States; Oklahoma and
Texas are up a collective 2.3 million acres. Colorado's yield prospects are
good, but additional moisture is needed to sustain the crop. In Kansas, the
iggest concern is the shortness of soil.moisture in the western third of the
State. Some of Montana's winter wheat has been reseeded to spring wheat where
favorable moisture extsted. Some poor stands will remain standing where
dryness discourages reseeding. Record December-January rains and good prices
point to a higher than normal harvested area in Texas where overall conditions
are the best in years. Harvest has started in South Texas and fields are
rapidly turning in Central Texas and the Blacklands.

Yield prospects are higher than last year in most soft red producing States.
Increases up to 20 bushels above last year are forecast in the areas hit
hardest by diseases last season. Severe early November 1991 freezes set the
stage for lower than expected area for grain in Illinois, Indiana, and
Missouri. Late spring freezes also set back the crop in some soft red areas.
Farmers are still evaluating fields in Indiana. Price levels might result in
some of the thin stands in Missouri going to harvest.

Harvested area has returned to more normal levels following last year's freeze
in Washington. All major white wheat States are expecting yield increases
except Idaho, where a mild winter and warm spring have rapidly advanced crop
development. Availability of irrigation water in coming months is a big
concern. Timely April rains have spurred Oregon crop development, but more
rain is needed. Washington's crop is 2-3 weeks ahead of normal. Current
moisture levels are maintaining the crop, but more rain will be needed in
coming weeks.

Durum Wheat: The Arizona and California 1992 durum wheat crops are forecast

at 3.71 and 5.23 million bushels, respectively. The Arizona
production equals 1991 but California's is up 56 percent due to increased area
for grain. Heading is nearly complete and over half the acreage was turning
color in Arizona. California growers anticipate normal yield levels; the crop
is rated in good or better condition.

Hay Stocks on Farms: Hay stocks on farms totaled 28.6 million tons on
May 1, 1992. This _is up 6 percent from the May 1, 1991,
stocks. The 1991 hay production was up 5 percent from a year earlier.

Disappearance of hay during the December 1, 1991 - May 1, 1992, period totaled
82.9 million tons. This compares with 77.9 million tons during the same
period a year earlier.

Lower feed requirements in the winter months were offset by colder spring
temperatures in some parts of the nation that slowed pasture growth and
resulted in higher feed needs.

“

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on May
1 for the 48 contiguous States was

84 percent, 5 points above May 1, 1991, and 7 points above the 1981-90 average

for May 1. Conditions were above last year in 19 States, below last year in

28 States, and the same as last year in one State. A majority of the States

are in the good to excellent range with the improvement in the 19 States more

than offsetting the decline in the 28 other States.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 B-5 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Class and Type,
by State and United States, 1990-91 1/ (continued)

Yield : Production

Area Harvested
Class and Type {eec--------------------------- ----------------------- ~~
1990 1991 : 1990: 1991 : 1990 : 1991
---- Acres ----  -~- Pounds --- -- 1,000 Pounds --
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air-cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt :
KY : 2,000 2,500 2,250 2,040 4,500 5,100
TN : 500 610 2,040 2,000 1,020 1,220
US : 2,500 3,110 2,208 2,032 5,520 6,320
Type 36, Green River :
Belt :
ky : 900 1,200 2,250 2,020 2,025 2,424
Type 37, VA Sun-cured :
Belt :
VA : 80 100 (1,275 1,560 102 156

Total 35-37 : 3,480 4,410 2,197 2,018 7,647 8,900
Class 4, Cigar Filler :
Type 41, PA Seedleaf : .

PA : 6,400 6,700 2,050 2,050 13,120 13,735
Class 5, Cigar Binder :
Class 5A, CT Valley

Binder

Type 51, CT Valley

Broadleaf :
CT : 570 670 1,700 1,750 969 1,173
MA : 90 110 = 2,120 1,860 191 205

US : 660 780 1,758 1,767 1,160 1,378
Class 5B, WI Binder :
Type 54, Southern WI :
WI : 4,100 4,200 2,275 2,210 9,328 9,282
Type 55, Northern WI:
WI : 2,800 3,200 1,435 1,580 4,018 5,056
Total 54-55 : 6,900 7,400 1,934 1,938 13,346 14,338
Total 51-55 : 7,560 8,180 1,919 1,921 14,506 15,716
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper :
Type 61, CT Valley :
Shade-grown
CT : 1,250 1,080 1,630 1,535 2,038 1,658
MA : 380 370 =1,615 1,540 614 570

us : 1,630 1,450 1,627 1,537 2,652 2,228
All Cigar Types :
Total 41-61 : 15,590 16,330 1,942 1,940 30,278 31,679
All Tobacco : 733,310 763,760 2,218 2,178 1,626,380 1,663,464

1/ 1991 revised. 2/ Estimates carried forward from "Crop Production" Annual
Summary released January 11, 1992.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1992 A-13 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Price, and Value,
by State and United States, 1990-91 1/

Area Harvested Production

State :---------~-------------------------~----------~---------~-----------------
1990 199] 1990 1991 1990 1991
aeonn~ Acres ------ ~--- Pounds ---~- --- 1,000 Pounds ----
CT : 1,820 1,750 1,652 1,618 3,007 2,831
FL : 6,900 6,600 2,760 2,320 19,044 15,312
GA: 43,000 40,000 2,415 2,015 103,845 80,600
IN : 7,000 8,800 2,150 2,150 15,050 18,920
KY : 194,150 223,100 2,278 2,151 442,253 479,794
MD: 7,100 8,600 1,360 1,500 9,656 12,900
MA : 470 480 1,713 1,615 805 775
MO : 2,600 3,000 2,280 2,275 5,928 6,825
NC : 284,200 275,000 2,251 2,308 = 639,639 634,655
Ou : 9,700 10,400 1,950 2,190 18,915 22,776
PA : 10,000 10,500 1,978 1,978 19,780 20,765
sc : 51,000 51,000 2,155 2,180 109,905 111,180
TN : 53,590 61,730 2,094 1,969 112,218 121,524
VA : 53,180 53,500 2,074 2,184 110,269 116,849
Ww : 1,700 1,900 1,600 1,800 2,720 3,420
WI : 6,900 7,400 1,934 1,938 13,346 14,338
US : 733,310 763,760 2,218 2,178 1,626,380 1,663,464
Marketing Year Average Price : Value of
per Pound Received by Farmers: Production
-- Dollars per Pound ~-- 2 --=--- 1,000 Dollars ------
CT 15.000 11.600 45,221 32,894
FL 1.730 1.660 32,946 25,418
GA 1.683 1.694 174,771 136,536
IN 1.760 1.795 26,488 33,961
KY 1,762 1.800 779,464 863,482
MD 1.860 1.620 17,960 20,898
MA : 16.600 13.900 13,372 10,793
MO : 1.742 1.765 10,327 12,046
NC : 1.683 1.732 1,076,242 1,098,981
OH 1.755 1.796 33,196 40,906
PA 1.508 1.477 29,825 30,678
Sc 1.586 1.715 174,309 190,674
TN 1.783 1.834 200,039 222,837
VA 1.707 1.722 188,242 201,216
WV 1.745 1.780 4,746 6,088
WI 1.500 1.550 20,019 22,224
US: 1.738 1.773 2,827,167 2,949,632
1/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1992 A-16 NASS, USDA