TEXAS CITRUS: Citrus groves across the Rio Grande Valley were in good con-

dition by the end of May. Most of the valley received good
rain at some time during May. Many groves were showing a good flush of new
growth. Both grapefruit and oranges are showing good sizing. Spring drop of
fruit has been light.

CITRUS HARVEST AND UTILIZATION: By June 1, 152 million boxes of oranges were

harvested, 84 percent of the U.S. crop, com-
pared with 135 million boxes or 85 percent on June 3, 1985. Processors had
used 73 percent of oranges harvested by June 1, 1986 compared with 73 percent
a year ago.

Grapefruit harvest was 92 percent complete by June 7 compared with 93
percent on June 1 tast year. Processors had used 54 percent of the total crop
harvested by June 1, 1986 compared with 60 percent a year earlier.

Lemon harvest at the first of the month was 7] percent complete compared
with 87 percent last season. Processors had utilized 38 percent of the crop
harvested compared with 56 percent by June 1 last year.

CITRUS CROP - HARVEST AND UTILIZATION TO JUNE 1

1984-85 1985-86
UTILIZATION 1/ UTILIZATION
CROP tone n nnn nn nnn nnn nnn nnn ne nn nn nnn enn nnn nn nnn nn nn nen en ene nnn nn ene nee
sREMAINING: 2 : 2REMAINING
: FRESH “PROCESSED: TOTAL: FOR  : FRESH:PROCESSED: TOTAL: FOR
: + HARVEST : : HARVEST

THOUSAND BOXES

ORANGES : 36,052 99,002 135,054 23,296 40,567 110,623 151,190 28,520
GRAPEFRUIT: 21,078 31,522 52,600 4,000 24,744 29,159 53,903 4,867
LEMONS : 9,796 12,615 22,411 3,389 8,670 5,280 13,950 5,700

1/ REVISED FOR GRAPEFRUIT.

APRICOTS: The first forecast for the 1986 U.S. apricot crop is 84.2 thousand

tons (76.4 thousand metric tons), 36 percent less than last year
and 34 percent below 1984. California's crop is forecast at 80.0 thousand
tons, 37 percent less than last season and 35 percent below the crop produced
in 1984. Rains during the critical pollination period reduced fruit set and
have also Caused some brown rot and other disease problems. Fruit quality
will vary mostly fair to good, but fruit size is above normal due to the
reduced number of apricots on the trees. Maturity of the crop is about two
weeks ahead of normal.

NECTARINES: The first forecast for the California nectarine crop is 195

thousand tons (177 thousand metric tons), 8 percent Jess than
Jast year, but 7 percent above 1984. Fruit quality is reported to be very
good with harvest now underway.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 B-6 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


SWEETPOTATOES

1,000 ACRES 1,000 ACRES

N

*
HO HUE NA=VAsA

AWOCOhM=OROO

he NOHUSYO“OUaN

=z
a
a

S
a
x
°

PRODUCTION

SPRING POTATOES

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

STATE
ALA 3 682
ARIZ 8 1,830
CALIF 27.5 1 385 380 1,115 10,588 7,410
FLA
HASTINGS 26.0 24.5 245 270 6,500 6,370 6,615
OTHER 143 29 210 190 240 273 Pal
LA .6 +6 70 65 60 42 39
NC 14.0 13.1 165 146 2,352 2,310 1,900
TEX 6.5 6.2 170 180 15240 1,105 = 1,116
TOTAL 87.0 75.6 264 261 23,798 22,986 19,763

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-14 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA




UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY-AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP : : INDICATED : INDICATED

1985 H 1986 2 1985 H 1986

ee HECTARES . -_ —
WINTER WHEAT : 23,371,660 21,850,020 19,406, 100 17,337,730
SPRING POTATOES : 37 ,230 31,040 35,210 30,590

UNITED ‘STATES CROP SUMMARY-YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION

crop. : INDICATED : Pececneeeec nce enen cence

: 1985 : 1986 : 1985 : MAYI, : JUN 1,

“3 H 3 3 1986 1986
METRIC TONS

WINTER WHEAT > 2.56 2.48 49,728,100 43,629,970 42,953,660
SPRING POTATOES  : 29.61 29:30 1,042,620 "885,540 896,430
PEACHES : 974,450 1,064,530
APRICOTS : 1193290 76,380
NECTARINES (CALIF) + 1913420 176,900
PLUMS (CALIF) 151,050 1173930
DRIED PRUNES. (CALIF): 126,100 90,720
ALMONDS (CALIF) . 210,920 113,400 113,400
CITRUS FRUITS 1/ °°: 1984-85 1985-86 1985-86
ORANGES : 6,095,370 6,930,890 6,955,390
GRAPEFRUIT : 23068380 2,129,160 2,160,910
LEMONS : 889,040 "708,510 677,670

1/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE
COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-5 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


DRIED PRUNES: California production is forecast at 100 thousand tons (90.7

thousand metric tons), 28 percent less than last year and 32
percent less than 1984. Heavy rains and high winds reduced pollination. As a
result of fewer fruit, sizes are expected to be large and sugar content high.
The high sugar content will cause Jow dry down ratios.

PLUMS: California production is forecast at 130 thousand tons (118 thousand

metric tons), down 22 percent from last year and 42 percent below
1984. Hail and wind storms early in the season damaged orchards in Fresno and
Tulare counties. Fruit sizes are good. The lower volume may be offset by
higher prices for the large plums.

ALMONDS: The forecast for the 1986 California almond crop continues at 250
million pounds (113 thousand metric tons) shelled basis, 46 percent

below the 1985 crop and 57 percent less than the record high 587 million

pounds (266 thousand metric tons) set in 1984. Almonds are developing well

with a small crop expected. Nut sizes are anticipated to be considerably
Jarger than normal.

SWEET CHERRIES: Production in the six western States is forecast at 113 thou-
sand tons (102 thousand metric tons), up 13 percent from a
year ago but down 23 percent from 1984.

The California crop, at 7500 tons, is down 68 percent from 1985. Harvest
is expected to be complete the first week of June. Fruit quality has been
excellent.

Oregon's crop, estimated at 33.0 thousand tons, is 14 percent more than a
year ago. Prospects are good in the Dalles area. Cold weather in May caused
a heavy fruit drop in the Willamette Valley.

If the weather holds, Washington's production wil be up sharply from last
year's freeze-damaged crop. Harvest should start in early June and be active
by mid-month. Harvest of fruit grown at high elevations normally continues
through July.

TART CHERRIES: Production in Colorado, Oregon and Utah is forecast at 19.5

million pounds (8850 metric tons), down 33 percent from the
1985 crop but 34 percent more than the 1984 crop. The tart cherry crop in
Western States suffered from frost damage.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: As of June 1, pasture and range feed condi-

tion is 80 percent compared with 81 percent
last year and 82 percent for the 1975-84 average for the date. Conditions
were more favorable than last year in 18 States, less favorable in 26 States
and unchanged in 4 States. Most States in the Northeast, the Midwest, south
through Oklahoma, and all Western States except Arizona, Colorado, and New
Mexico received ample rainfall in May and these States are all in the good to
excellent range. The biggest improvement from last year is in Montana,
Wyoming, and the Dakotas. Montana's condition is 90 percent and South Dakota's
is 91 percent, both up 39 points from last year. North Dakota's condition is
96 percent and Wyoming's is 93 percent, both up 19 points from June 1, 1985.
The southeastern States continue to be plagued by dry weather and Alabama,
Florida, and South Carolina are in the severe drought range, while Georgia at
34 percent is in the extreme drought range. Conditions declined from May 1 in
most eastern and western States but improved in the Plains States and the
western Corn Belt.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 B-7 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


INDEX

PAGE

ALMONDS ..ccececcccecccccccvcuees occ cece cence eoenes errr eeeee A-10

APRICOTS ...cceeeceeaceees seeeeee dene eeeeneeeeeeseeeeseeeecnsereeenes A-10

BEET PULP .....-. eee rere eee eee eee ree eee eee eee eee eee es . A-13

CHERRIES .....seeseees
CITRUS FRUITS .....0

teen crete nee c eens e ete e eee eeee tas seseeeenene A-7

ae eeeecenccees eer rere rere eee rere rere eres A- 9

CROP MOISTURE MAPS ...... eee eee eee eee ee eee eee ere eee eee eee 8- 1

MOLASSES .......0. eee e nee see eeneenecenes beet ee ee tee eeeneeneeesenrens A-13
NECTARINES ..ccccccecccececeee eee reer errr rere errr ree ooesecscece A-10

PAPAYAS wo cesseceeeeeeeese

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION TABLE .......eseeeee oe cecceeeevenes A- 7

PEACHES .cccecscscccsccescccveces ere rerery see rereeenes a seecnecees A- 8

PEARS, BARTLETT

A-10

POTATOES, SPRING ...sseeeceeee oeeeeeee Peeeese errr eres ete eceneeecces A-14

PRUNES, ORTED ...ceeeeeee seeneeseees weet ee eee ee seeeeee Serreerrrrse res A-10

SUGAR .ccsccccscccccecescsstccescecece seeseceees PPrererer ere Terre rere A=13

SUGARBEETS ..ccssececccecccsercces os eetcesevece eee ce ecececenecneees A-11
SUGARCANE ......eeeeees eee rer ere errr rere es eee rere rere eres tee A-12

SWEETPOTATOES ...-eseeeeee de eeneseeee ee teceeeees seevecccees eee eeees A-14
US SUMMARY ...cececceceees beeen neenetee econ cence eeercccneccestencee A- 4

WHEAT, BY CLASSES ..cccsscccccecsccccssccecerscssnceeceneesensesenees A- 6

WHEAT, WINTER .scecccecceececcese be eeereeeeee tee cecencceces se nececees A- 6

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986

8-9

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1986-490-916:40378/NASS


Winter wheat condition is rated mostly good in the Plains States, and
mostly fair in the Southeast. Oregon's crop is rated mostly fair and
Washington's mostly good. Montana's crop is rated good to excellent. Heading
advanced to 82 percent in the 20 major producing States. Harvest is underway
across the southern tier of States. By June 1, harvest was 10 percent
complete in Oklahoma and about 33 percent complete in Texas; both States are
ahead of average progress.

PEACHES: The forecast of 2.35 billion pounds (1.06 million metrictons), is 9
percent more than last year but 12 percent less than 1984.

The nine southern States expect to produce 480 million pounds, down 1
percent from the May 1 forecast but 28 percent more than 1985. In South
Carolina, the crop was 8 percent harvested on June 1 compared with 4 percent
harvested on June 1, 1985. Harvest activity is rapidly increasing. The
effects of the continuing drought in Georgia had not become evident by June 1
but conditions had deteriorated in Texas. The Ohio River Valley and east
coast from Pennsylvania through North Carolina escaped the severely damaging
freezes experienced in 1985. New Jersey expects increased production from
1985 but continuing dry conditions could damage the crop.

The California Freestone crop, at 460 million pounds, is down 5 percent
from a year ago. The crop was about 20 percent harvested on June 1. Harvest
is about 10 days ahead of normal. Quality is expected to be good. The
Clingstone crop, at 930 million pounds, is 6 percent less than last year.
Maturity is 7 to 10 days ahead of normal. No major disease problems are
evident.

BARTLETT PEARS: Production in California, Oregon and Washington is forecast
at 458 thousand tons (415 thousand metric tons), down 2 per-
cent from 1985 but up 2 percent from 1984.

California's expected production of 290 thousand tons is 3 percent more
than 1985. Heavy wind and rain storms in February did not seriously damage
the crop. Fruit set was good. Size and quality are expected to be good.
Maturity is about a week ahead of normal. Harvest should start about June 7.

The Oregon production forecast of 50.0 thousand tons is down 33 percent
from 1985. The lower production was reduced by April frosts and poor
pollination, especially in the Hood River area. The crop is developing nicely
in the Medford area where most orchards were successfully protected from frost
damage.

Washington's expected production of 118 thousand tons is up 6 percent from
last year. There is some concern about frost damage in the Wenatchee area but
most growing areas escaped damage.

PAPAYAS: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is forecast at 4.60 million

pounds (2090 metric tons) in June. Production is expected to drop
to 3.50 million pounds (3590 metric tons) in July, with a further decline to
2.60 million pounds (1180 metric tons) in August. Output for September is
anticipated to rise 8 percent to 2.80 million pounds (1270 metric tons).
Fresh papaya utilization during May is estimated at 4.81 million pounds (2180
metric tons), a 16 percent increase over April and 23 percent-more than May
last year. Year-to-date output is 4 percent behind levels at this time a year
ago.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 B-4 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


MISCELLANEOUS FRUITS AND NUTS

CROP AND STATE

1
'
'
‘
’
'
‘
‘
'
'
‘
1
'
'
'
'
t
1
‘
‘
t
'
1
1
1
1

1,000 POUNDS
AMON S (SHELLED BASIS)
CAL

3 TONS

PLUMS :

CALIF Fy 225,000 166,500 130,000
PRUNES (DRIED BASIS) '

CALIF : 148,000 139,000 100,000
APRICOTS 2

CALIF 3 123,000 128,000 80,000

UTAH t 800 1,100 1,100
. WASH 2 3,400 2,400 3,100

us 2 127,200 131,500 84,200
NECTARINES 3

CALIF 3 183,000 211,000 195,000

587,000 465,000 250,000

Vv APRICOTS = INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS) :
UNITED STATES, 1984-10,120, 1985-25,170,

BARTLETT PEARS

PRODUCT 10N

STATE : TOTAL 1/
CALIF : 302,000 282,000 290,000
OREG : 44,000 75,000 50,000
WASH t 101,000 111,000 118,000
us FY 447,000 468,000 458,000

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION (TONS): CALIF, 1964-12, 500.

PAPAYAS - HAWAII Vv

ACRES 1,000 POUNDS

4,155
4,810

APR

CUMULATIVE FRESK PRODUCTION JAN-MAY 21,451 20,655

vy 1985 REVISEO.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-10 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION Vv

STATE AVERAGE : 1985 : “1986 AVERAGE : 1985 +: 1986
1975-84: 3 1975-84 ’
: : :
3 PERCENT : PERCENT
ALA 2 82 72 4i : 85 77 87
ARIZ 3 7 94 63 92 91 88
ARK 87 93 93 3 88 86 75
CALIF 82 78 94 : 14 95 58
COLO ’ 78 92 68 3 89 84 87
CONN 91 87 84 : 86 74 54
DEL 86 72 68 : 71 77 96
FLA : 71 55 39 : 86 90 80
GA 2 78 62 34 8 87 90 88
IDAHO; 87 82 95 : 89 76 84
TLE 3 89 90 84 : 89 86 80
IND : 89 86 88 3 92 103 84
1OWA : 87 85 96 3 78 53 35
KANS 3 88 93 81 : 72 52 91
KY z 89 90 71 t 89 86 15
LA 3 79 77 79 : 74 80 67
MAINE 91 92 96 : 82 95 88
MD 85 82 74 8 90 94 94
MASS 92 91 92 : 87 73 73

1/ GOOD To EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR 65- -79; VERY POOR, 50-64; SEVERE
DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CHERRIES
PRODUCTION
CROP AND freee enn enn nen nnn en nnn nnn nnn ene nn nn nnn nnn en nnn cnc n enn
STATE : TOTAL Vv
fee e emer e ween nnn ern ene ene en ee eee eee INDICATED
1984 : 1985 1986 2/
: TONS

SWEET :

. CALIF : 37,200 23,500 7,500
1DAHO 3 2,800 2,200 2,000
MONT : 2,300 4,600 1,800
OREG : 31,000 29,000 33,000
UTAH : 4,200 2,200 2,400
WASH : 68,000 37,900 66,000

TOTAL : 145,500 99,400 112,700
: MILLION POUNDS

TART
coLo : 1.0 1.7 5
OREG : 1.6 6.5 4.0
UTAH : 12.0 21.0 15.0

TOTAL : 14.6 29.2 19.5

1/ INCLUDES UNHARY ESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD: TOTAL SWEET (TONS),
1984-17,550; 1985-6

2/ RELEASE DATE OF THE "FIRST FORECAST FOR THE GREAT LAKES STATES (NY, PA, AND
MICH) FOR SWEET AND TART VARIETIES, PLUS WIS FOR TART VARIETIES, IS JUNE 20.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-7 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT

: BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 400 350 32.0 22.0 14,820 12,800 7,700
ARIZ 1/ : 66 53 90.0 96.0 5,580 5,940 5,088
ARK 1 570 600 32.0 36.0 61,600 18,240 21,600
CALIF + 750 680 82.0 83.0 52,440 61,500 56,440
COLO : 3,450 2,900 39.0 33.0 110,400 134,550 95,700
DEL vA z 43 33 48.0 47.0 2,009 2,064 1,551
FLA 2s : 130 100 33.0 30.0 4,290 3,000
GA t 825 550 31.0 26.0 31,150 25,575 14,300
IDAHO 2 870 800 53.0 67.0 56,700 46,110 53,600
Wee t 750 800 49.0 44.0 70,400 36,750 35,200
IND : 700 600 53.0 50.0 48,300 37,100 40,000
1OWA 1/ : 112 75 48.0 38.0 3,600 5,376 2,850
KANS 2 11,400 10,000 38.0 32.0 431,200 433,200 320,000
KY : 310 320 34.0 34.0 19,000 10,540 10,880
LA Vs : 210 210 34.0 37.0 15,120 7,140 7,770
MD Woo: 133 140 49.0 47.0 6,020 6,517 6,580
MICH : 750 700 60.0 60.0 45,600 45,000 42,000
MINN 1/ : 280 175 37.0 41.0 15,480 10,360 7,175
MISS 3 300 200 31.0 33.0 25,080 9,300 6,600
Mo : 1,280 520 39.0 37.0 84,050 49,920 19,240
MONT 2 1,400 2,000 16.0 33.0 66,960 22,400 66,000
NEBR t 2,300 2,000 39.0 41.0 81,000 89,700 82,000
NEV vA : 9 9 80.0 80.0 640 720 720
Nod vA : 37 33 52.0 50.0 1,677 1,924 1,650
N MEX 1/ 2 570 500 36.0 30.0 11,960 20,520 15,000
NY Vv : 145 150 58.0 54.0 7,820 8,410 8,100
NC : 760 540 29.0 27.0 26,660 22,040 14,580
N DAK 1/ 2 450 480 35.0 40.0 22,000 15,750 19,200
OHIO : 950 1,020 62.0 50.0 48,400 58,900 51,000
OKLA : 5,500 5,200 30.0 28.0 190,600 165,000 145,600
OREG : 960 930 54.0 58.0 66,150 51,840 53,940
PA Vv 3 210 220 48.0 45.0 8,360 10,080 9,900
sc : 430 265 29.0 25.0 14,440 12,470 6,625
S$ DAK : 1,520 1,690 29.0 42.0 61,200 44,080 70,980
TENN : 250 300 32.0 31.0 21,400 8,000 9,300
TEX : 5,850 4,600 32.0 26.0 150,000 187,200 119,600
UTAH t/ : 220 210 32.0 35.0 6,435 7,040 7,350
vA : 285 250 37.0 38.0 12,375 10,545 9,500
WASH : 2,400 2,050 48.0 56.0 148,800 115,200 114,800
WVYA 1/ : 8 9 43.0 42.0 400 344 378
Wis Ww : 130 55.0 56.0 8,960 7,700 7,280
WYO 1/ 250 22.0 30.0 7,280 5,060

us 42,842 36.1 36.8 2,060,266 1,827,195

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1985 CROP.

WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES 1/

1,000 BUSHELS

1,250,597 531,370 278,299 408,801 103,439 22,271 2,594,777
1,230,075 368,026 229,094 460,262 112,510 24,798 2,424,765
1,046,954 297,800 233, 523

1/ WHEAT CLASS ESTIMATES ARE BASED on VARIETY ACREAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED
AT 5-YEAR INTERVALS FOR ALL WHEAT PRODUCING STATES. THE 5-YEAR VARIETAL

SURVEY DATA ARE ADJUSTED AS OTHER VARIETY SURVEY INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
2/ INDICATED JUNE 1, 1986.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 AG AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA



ORANGES: The U.S. al] orange forecast is 180 million boxes (6.96 million

metric tons) for 1985-86 season, up fractionally from the May 1
forecast and 13 percent above the 1984-85 season. The Florida all orange
forecast is 123 million boxes, the same as the May 1 forecast, but 19 percent
more than last season. Production of early and mid-season oranges is 64.2
million boxes. Harvest is complete. The Florida Valencia forecast, at 59.0
million boxes, is 21 percent higher than 1984-85. Harvest is 80 percent
complete. The California Navel estimate is 32.8 million boxes, 1 percent less
than May 1, but 26 percent above 1984-85. Harvest of the Navel crop is
complete. California's Valencia forecast, at 21.0 million boxes, is up 5
percent from May 1 but is 19 percent below last season's crop. Harvest is 21
percent complete.

The Arizona all orange forecast, at 2.40 million boxes, is down 4 percent
from May 1 and 2 percent less than last season. Arizona's harvest is nearly
complete, The Texas crop harvest this season was 310 thousand boxes.

Changes in U.S. orange production between the June 1 forecast and final
production averaged 3.47 million boxes over the past ten seasons, ranging from
a low of 300 thousand boxes in 1977-78 to a high of 7.60 million boxes in the
1976-77 season.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1985-86 yield projection of

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice is
1.38 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This yield computation is
projected to the final amount reported by the Florida Citrus Processors
Association at the end of the harvest season. The 1984-85 freeze-reduced
final season average yield was 1.37582 gallons per box. In 1983-84, the FCOJ
final yield was 1.28931 gallons per box which was also affected by freezing
weather.

GRAPEFRUIT: The 1985-86 U.S. grapefruit forecast is 58.8 million boxes (2.16

million metric tons}, 2 percent more than the May 1 forecast, and
4 percent above last season. Florida's forecast, at nearly 47.0 million
boxes, is up 300 thousand boxes from May 1 and is 7 percent higher than last
season. The California "Desert Valley" forecast continues at 4.00 million
boxes, 3 percent above the 1984-85 crop. The California “Other Areas" crop
forecast is 4.50 million boxes, 10 percent below last season. The Arizona
forecast, at 3.10 million boxes, is down 16 percent from 1984-85. Texas
grapefruit production this season was 220 thousand boxes. Picking in Florida
is 99 percent complete, Arizona 98 percent complete, and California 49 percent
complete. Texas harvest was completed early this season.

LEMONS: The forecast for Arizona and California totals nearly 19.7 million
boxes (678 thousand metric tons), down 4 percent from May 1 and 24
percent less than last season. The California forecast, at 16.6 million
boxes, is 5 percent less than the May 1 forecast and 16 percent below last
season. Harvest is complete in Arizona, and 66 percent complete in California.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Rainfall in the citrus production belt during May was very
short. Supplemental irrigation was. used extensively to help
maintain trees and fruit in reasonably good condition. Some tree wilt did
occur in nonirrigated groves. Shedding of new crop fruit early in May was
heavy as trees adjusted to the crop size they could support. Fruit harvest
was active all month, with most of the volume going into processing products.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 B-5 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT 1/

UTILIZED

1983-84

1,000 UNITS 2/

ORANGES, EARLY MID :

& NAVEL 3A:
ARIZ 4/: 550 650 600 2
CALIF t 33,700 26,000 32,800 1,264
FLA 4/: 69,700 55,000 64,200 3,136
TEX 5/: 2,400 0 200 102
us + 106,350 81,650 97,800 4,523
ORANGES, VALENCIA =
ARIZ : 1,250 1,800 1,800 47
CALIF : 14,800 26,000 21,000 556
FLA : 47,000 48,900 59,000 2,115
TEX 5/i 110 0 110 5
us + 63,160 76,700 81,910 2,723
ALL ORANGES :
ARIZ + 1,800 2,450 2,400 68
CALIF t 48,500 52,000 53,800 1,820
FLA : 116,700 103,900 123,200 5,251
TEX 5/: 2,510 0 310 107
us 3 169,510 158,350 179,710 7,246
TEMPLES :
FLA : 2,900 3,250 3,000 130
GRAPEFRUIT,WHITE —;
SEEDLESS
FLA + 23,000 24,800 25,700 978
GRAPEFRUIT, PINK =:
SEEDLESS
FLA 2 13,400 16,300 18,100 569
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT z
FLA : 4,500 2,900 3,150 191
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
ARIZ 2,270 3,700 3,100 72
CALIF
DESERT 3,340 3,900 4,000 107
OTHER AREAS 3,900 5,000 4,500 134
TOTAL 7,240 8,900 8,500 238
FLA 40,900 44,000 46,950 1,738
TEX 3,200 0 220 128
us 53,610 56,600 58,770 2,176
TANGERINES
RIZ 1,150 700 700 43
CALIF 1,850 1,680 1,800 70
FLA 2,000 1,050 1,150 95
us 5,000 3,430 3,650 208
LEMONS . ..
ARIZ 4,000 6,000  : 3,050 152
CALIF 17,250 19,800 16,600 655
us 21,250 25,800 19,650 807
TANGELOS
FLA 3,600 3,600 2,950 162

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST 1S COMPLETED.

2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & AR'Z-75,FLA-90,

TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF

OTHER-67, FLA~85, TEX-80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS &

TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95,

NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND

ARIZONA. EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND

TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN

TEXAS,

3

x

: PRODUCTION
t TON EQUIVALENT

ot
1984-85 +: 1985-86
1,000 UNITS

25
975
2,475
0
3,475
68
975
2,201
0
3,244
93
1,950
4,676
0
6,719

146

1,054

4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

5/ DUE TO SEVERE FREEZE OF DECEMBER 1983,
SUPPLIES WERE HARVESTED FOR THE 1984-85
TEXAS CITRUS CROP.

NO COMMERCIAL

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-9

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NOICATED

23
1,230
2,889
9
4,151
68
788
2,655
5
3,516
1
2,018
5,544
14
7,667
135

1,092

769

NASS, USDA


@ Agricultural United States
Cc ro Statistics Oepartment of
Board Agriculture
H National Agricultural Washington, D.C. 20250
ro u Cc 10 n Statistics Service

RELEASED: June 10, 1986
3:00 P.M. ET

HIGHLIGHTS

WINTER WHEAT production is forecast at 1.58 billion bushels (43.0 million

metric tons), 14 percent Tess than in 1985. This is the lowest
level since 1978. The 90 percent confidence interval for this production
forecast is 1.42 billion to 1.74 billion bushels.

ORANGE production is forecast at 180 million boxes, (6.96 million metric
tons), 13 percent above last season. Harvest is 84 percent complete.

PEACH production, including California's Clingstone crop, is forecast at 2.35

billion pounds (1.06 million metric tons), 9 percent more than last year
but 12 percent less than 1984. The California Clingstone crop, at 930 million
pounds, is 6 percent less than last year.

BARTLETT PEARS in the Pacific Coast States are forecast at 458 thousand tons
(415 thousand metric tons), down 2 percent from 1985 but up 2
percent from 1984.

SWEET CHERRY production in the Western States is forecast at 113 thousand tons
(102 thousand metric tons), up 13 percent from a year ago but down
23 percent from 1984.

SPRING POTATO production is forecast at 19.8 million cwt (896 thousand metric
tons), down 14 percent from last year and 17 percent below 1984.

FRIIS III III IKI SII IR IIIS IIH ISI II IR IES III III ISI III III IIIS II AI IIIA IIA III.

* AGENCY NAME CHANGE *
* *
*

The Statistical Reporting Service staff has been active during the past*
3 years examining virtually every aspect of its work. One phase dealt *
with the Agency's identity within the agricultural and statistical com-*
munities. As a result of this study, the name of the Statistical Re- *
porting Service has been changed to National Agricultural Statistics *
Service. This name more accurately reflects the purpose of the Agency,*
its broad agricultural focus, and the service aspect of its responsi-
bility. In line with this change, the Agency's Crop Reporting Board
has been renamed the Agricultural Statistics Board to better describe
the scope of its output.

*

*

Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports
should be directed to Agricultural Statistics Board Publications, Room
5829-South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-
2021).

HIRI KIIR IIR III IAI IK IAAI III IIIA IRI III III IAI IIIS III ISK IIIS III IIA ISK.

Ob OO OF OO FF

FO OR OF

CrPr 2-2 (6-86) For Information call: (202) 447-2127



SUGARCANE

AREA HARVESTED YIELD : PRODUCTION
STATE ecnennnnnnennnnenncnenenennennemenesnenennnnemennceenancenemcnernne
: 1984 1985 1984 =: #1985 =: 1984 : 1985
1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
FOR SUGAR :
FLA £3719 383.4 32.5 32.9 12,087 12,615
HAW : 89.5 83.0 94.5 95.4 87454 7,916
LA : 205.0 226.0 22.0 24.0 4,510 5,430
TEX : 34.3 30.4 27.9 30.1 957 916
US : 700.7 722.8 37.1 37.2 26,008 26,877
FOR SEED:
FLA : 15.1 15.3 35.1 32.8 530 502
HAW : OB 6.4 40.4 33.3 230 213
LA : 25.0 24.0 22.0 24.0 550 576
TEX : ‘3 1.5 27.5 30.0 22 45
US : 46.6 47.2 28.6 28.3 1,332 1,336
FOR SUGAR:
AND SEED :
FLA : 387.0 398.7 32.6 32.9 12,617 13,117
HAW : 95.2 39.4 91.2 90.9 8,684 8,129
LA : 230.0 250.0 22:0 24.0 5,060 6,006
TEX : 35.1 31.9 27.9 30.1 979 961
US : 747.3 770.0 36.6 36.6 27,340 28,213
FOR SUGAR sts=<CS~S*st~‘C~sS FOR SUGAR AND SEED
: PRICE PER TON: VALUE OF PRODUCTION :VALUE OF PRODUCTION 1/
“984: 1985 2/7: 1984: 1985 2/ : 1984: 1985 2/
DOLLARS ~— 1,000 DOLLARS
FLA 28.90 349,314 364,631
HAW : 30.30 256,156 263,125
LA 2 23.90 107; 789 120,934
TEX > 21.70 20,767 21,244
TOTAL : 734,026 769,934

1/_ PRICE PER TON OF CANE FOR SUGAR USED IN EVALUATING VALUE OF PRODUCTION FOR
SEED. 2/ ESTIMATES ARE NOT AVAILABLE. U.S. SEASON AVERAGE PRICE, VALUE OF
PRODUCTION, AND PARITY PRICE WILL BE PUBLISHED IN “AGRICULTURAL PRICES,"
RELEASED AT 3:00 P.M. ET, JUL 37, 1986. STATE ESTIMATES WILL BE PUBLISHED IN
"CROP VALUES" TO BE RELEASED JAN 1987.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-12 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


SUGARBEETS 1/

AREA : AREA :
: PLANTED > HARVESTED. =: YIELD
STATE feeeee cee n enna een re ncn e nec em nem ene een nen nen ecneeneneeneee
1984 1985 1984: 1985 :; 1984: 1985
1,000 ACRES ; TONS
CALIF : 211.0 206.0 += 206.0 «Ss -203.0 «24.7 23.5
COLO : 48.3 2.9 44.2 2.5 21.8 18.5
IDAHO : 145.0 153.0 144.0 152.0 23.0 23.0
KANS : 7.8 :0 71 10 17.2 ~=—-:0.0
MICH : 110.0 124.0 108.0 s«118.0 19.6 =—-19.7
MINN : 268.0 278.0 263.0 276.0 16.5 18.4
MONT : 25.2 43.5 24.6 42.7. 16.9 19.0
NEBR : 73.0 59.1 67.5 53.2 21.9 23.1
N DAK : 139.8 144.8 139.1 144.2 16.6 16.8
OHIO : 11.8 13.1 10.7 12.7 18.8 20.3
ORES : 1.8 11.9 11.6 11.8 26.5 27.0
TEX : 39.0 38.0 37.8 37.0 21.8 22.5
WYO ot 32.9 50.2 32.7 49.4° 20.0 21.0
US : 1,123.6 1,124.5 1,096.3 20.2 20.5
PRODUCTION PRICE PER TON : VALUE OF PRODUCTION
: 1984 1985 1984 : 1985 2/: 1984
1,000 TONS DOLLARS 1,000 DOLLARS
CALIF : 5,088 4,771 35.10 . 178,589
COLO : 964 46 22.40 21,594
IDAHO : 3,312 3,496 = 37.10 122,875
KANS : 122 0 © 21.40 2,611
MICH : 2,117 2,325 34.40 72,825
MINN : 4,340 5,088 35.40 153,636
MONT 2 416 sil 35.50 14,768
NEBR : 1,480 1,229 22.70 33,596
N DAK : 2,309 2,423 37.00 85,433
201 258 «23.60 4,744
319 36.50 11,206
833 33.20 : 27,357
1,037 32.00 20,928
22,636 33.90 750,162

D HARVEST EXCEPT FOR OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED
BEETS IN CALIF. 2/ ESTIMATES ARE NOT AVAILABLE. U.S. SEASON AVERAGE PRICE,
VALUE OF PRODUCTION AND PARITY PRICE WILL BE PUBLISHED IN THE “AGRICULTURAL
PRICES," RELEASED AT 3:00 P.M. ET, JUL 31, 1986. STATE ESTIMATES WILL BE
PUBLISHED IN "CROP VALUES" TO BE RELEASED JAN 1987. .

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-11 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


PEACHES

PRODUCTION

AND TOTAL 1/ t
INDICATED

1986

MILLION POUNDS
ALA 22.0 1.5 6.0
ARK : 23.0 5.0 7.0
CALIF~{FREESTONE ' 457.0 486.0 460.0
COLO : 12.0 15.0 6.0
CONN 3 2.7 3.0 3.0
DEL : 2.0 1.2 2.1
GA : 150.0 90.0 110.0
IDAHO : 7.5 11.0 10.0
ILL 3 16.0 4/ 19.0
(ND $ 7 4/ 4.0
KANS 2.5 3.5 4.5
KY 3.0 4/ 4.0
LA 2/ 7.0 6.5 at
MD 19.0 1.0 21.0
MASS 1.9 2.) 2.1
MICH 3 45.0 55.0 45.0
MISS 2/ : 5.0 2.5 3
MO : 15.0 4/ 13.0
NJ : 50.0 95.0 105.0
NY 11.0 17.5 16.8
NC 43.0 2.0 20.0
OHIO 4/ 4/ 2.5
OKLA 2/ 9.0 8.0 7.0
OREG 14.0 15.5 13.0
PA 85.0 40.0 95.0
sc 480.0 230.0 320.0
TENN 10.0 4/ 5.0
TEX 23.0 30.0 10.0
UTAH 12.0 11.0 11.5
VA 34.0 2.0 35.0
WASH 38.0 29.0 38.0
WoOVA 17.0 4/ 21.0
TOTAL ABOVE 1,617.3 1,163.3 1,416.9

CLINGSTONE 3/
CALIF 1,042.0 985.0 930.0
ALL

us 2,659.3 2,148.3 2,346.9

/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (MILLION POUNDS):
UNITED STATES, EXCLUDING-CALIF CLINGSTONE PEACHES, 1984-115.4; 1985-33.4.

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

3/ CALIF CLINGSTONE [S OVER THE SCALE TONNAGE AND INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY
DIVERSIONS (MILLION POUNDS): 1984-76.0; 1985-67.5.

4/ NO SIGNIFICANT COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION DUE TO FROST.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-8 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA



POTATOES: Spring potato production is forecast at 19.8 million cwt (896 thou-

sand metric tons), down 14 percent from last year and 17 percent
below 1984. Area for harvest is set at 75.6 thousand acres (30.6 thousand
hectares), down 13 percent from both of the last two years. The average yield
forecast rose to 261 cwt per acre, 3 cwt above the May 1 forecast, but is
below both of the past two years.

In California, harvest of Centennials started near the end of May.,
Harvest of red varieties is nearing: completion, while’ whites are in
mid-season. Arizona harvest began in the last half of April in central
counties, followed in early May in western counties. Quality and yield of
both table stock and chip potatoes have been good.

Texas harvest is underway in the Rio Grande Valley, but is 5 delayed by wet
conditions in the San Antonio-Winter Garden area. In the Knox-Haskell area,

some fields were damaged by high winds and hail. Irrigation was used steadily
during May. In Louisiana, spring freezes and dry-soils in some areas slowed
development.

Florida harvest is about 75 percent complete in the Hastings area under
nearly ideal: harvest weather. Other Florida areas are finished harvesting. ~
Alabama harvest is running two to three weeks late. Small sizes are a concern
to growers. -In North Carolina, growers are worried about drying soils. May
rains were widely scattered and missed potato areas for the most part.

SWEETPOTATOES: Final estimates of 1985 sweetpotato production on total 14.9

million cwt (674 thousand metric tons), a gain of 14 percent
over 1984. Area for harvest is set at 105 thousand acres (42.6 thousarid
hectares), up 2 percent from 1984. The average yield is a record high 141 cwt
per acre, 16 cwt above 1984. .
SUGAR CROPS ~ 1985 REVISED: Production of sugarbeets in 1985 totaled 22.6

million tons (20.5 million metric ‘tons), up’ 2°

Percent from the 22.1 million tons (20.1 million metric tons) produced in
1984. The increase is the combined result of more. acreage and higher yields.
Growers harvested 1.10 million acres (446 thousand hectares) in 1985, up 1
Percent from 1984. The average yield of 20.5 tons per acre in 1985 is 0.3 of
a ton per acre above the previous year.

Sugarcane produced for sugar in 1985 totaled 26.9 million tons (24.4
million metric tons), 3 percent more than ‘in 1984.. The larger quantity
primarily reflects an increase in acreage harvested. Area harvested for sugar
totaled 723 thousand acres (293 thousand hectares), 3 percent above the
previous year. Yield per acre averaged 37.2 tons in 1985 compared with 37.1
tons in 1984, - : :

Total 1985 sugar production of 6.03 million tons raw value (5.47 million
metric tons) from sugarcane and sugarbeets is up 2 percent from the 1984
output of 5.91 million tons (5.36 million metric tons). The 3.03 million tons:
{2.75 million metric tons) raw value of sugar produced from cane is up 1
percent from a year earlier. Sugarbeets sliced from the 1985 crop totaled
22.0 million tons (19.9 million metric tens), an increase of 2 percent from
1984. Sugar (raw value) produced from the 1985 slice totaled 3.00 million
tons (2.72 million metric tons), an increase of 3 percent from the 1984
production.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 B-8 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY-AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

‘AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP INDICATED : : INDICATED
1985 1986 : 1985: 1986
1,000 ACRES
WINTER WHEAT : 57,752 53,992 47,953 42,842
SPRING POTATOES : 92.0 76.7 87.0 75.6

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY-YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

CROP AND UNIT : : INDICATED
s INDICATED: peewee ncee ee en nee n eee
1985 : 1986 : 1985 : MAY T, : JUNT,
: : : . 1986 : 1986
1,000
WINTER WHEAT BU: ~—38.1 36.8 1,827,195 1,603,127 1,578,277
SPRING POTATOES CWT : 264 261 22,986 19,523 195763
PASTURE & RANGE :

FEED 1/ PCT : al 80
PEACHES LB: 2,148,300 2,346,900
APRICOTS TON : 131.5 84.2
NECTARINES :

(CALIF) 3 211.0 195.0
PLUMS (CALIF) moos 166.5 ‘ 130.0
DRIED PRUNES :

(CALIF) oy 139.0 100.0
ALMONDS (CALIF) LB: ; 465,000 250,000 250,000
CITRUS FRUITS 2/ : 1984-85 1985-86 1985-86

ORANGES BOX : 158,350 179,010 179,710

GRAPEFRUIT wos 56,600 57,770 58,770

LEMONS "oo; 25,800 20,550 19,650

1/_ PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1975-84 AVERAGE
IS 82 PERCENT. 2/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS
WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-4 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


“ nes
. MW
DRY WY
en Ea

‘ROP MOISTURE: <
Seacrs suet sem coP 70 usher «BE
taeonua DaTNESS

igpowne Suptber cay cuunex Cons
tiar, avo tnotcatas soma Comision
ido" ano exp OF THE GROWING’ SEASON

SEABON CROPS AND FIELD CPELATIONS.

Pints) ale avenictno SA.0" daocr s3°P-
“OGRTES 1 TEARS
BY Tas SRGUGHT SEVERIEY TORE

‘SLIGHTLY! ABNORMALLY

‘OR WETNESS 477RCTING

D388. .syrutcasca os wmsmirio Tae Saunt Tew,
Tue-ieeekes stim OF OF fenvise aFFecriNa

LiMITATIONS. ay sot ME avpLIcABLE 70 cma
Hoge chord nttenanx Onasua 0 atrmacr Tad Deze
ow A S-roor Pnorits, OR Poa coo. SEASON ChOPS. GROPING Wey TOMS

CROP MOISTURE :

{SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

ABNORMALLY:
MOIS MAY 31, 1986
oe ISSUED WEEKLY
{ RN
fi; )
. V G )
oY Favor Q ABNSRMALLY—\ |
ABNORMALLY: UW ie ABNOTMALLY, ‘MOIST
DR’ —\
ee <P excessive
a ae ‘DRY. LY CS
Cr ce var
Soe

FAVORABLY
isT

See
ee “OS
Sz a}

‘scnICTL TT
Y WEE TO
‘At THE SxGiy—

1G AND smALLOW
‘OR SuBSOrL uorsTTREA

ea
UE 19 GENSRAILY INDICATIVE OF

OR WET SPELLS MRICH ARE DEPICTED NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL KEATHER FACILITY sosedon petininory report

Moist

DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX BY DIVISION
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

MAY 24, 1986

= j—-\__, ISSUED TWICE A MONTH
MOIS: A

SEVERE ‘MOIST:

a SEVERE
MODERATE
— MODERATE
re ‘SEVERE:
s EXTREME
:
MODERATE
. SEVERE <
. MODERATE MODERATE
}DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PALMER): DePICTS PRO- .
ILONGED (SOWTHS. YEARS) ABNORMAL DRewesS OF FETA SEvent
faesbonns SuowLi. caNotS LITTLE FhoM EEK TO WEE E
[AND REFLECSS LONG TERM. MOTSTORE RUNOFF, RECHARGE A
[Aib DEED PERCOLATION. AS HELL AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
uses. . APPLICABLE IN MEASURING DISRUPT?VE EsTECTS OF PRoLoNGDD ry)
Devniaé"On WETNESS On WATER SENSETI VE" ECONOMIES DESIORATING. B18
ASTER AREAS" OF DROUGHT OR NETHESS (AND REFLECTING THE. GENERAL, LONG
HTehw STATUS OF WATER SUPPLIES In AQUIFERS, RESERVOIRS, AND S7REA
iwrraTions...18 MoT GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SHORT TERM (YER SEEK
FIELD OPERATIONS CHVIS" 15" INDICATED BY THE CROP MOISTURE. TRDEXD MOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _tse-on premier pons
CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 B-l AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA



Rain slowed spring wheat seeding the first half of May but seeding
progressed rapidly the last two weeks of May. Spring wheat seeding began the
month 24 points behind normal. As the month ended seeding was 95 percent
finished, 2 points behind normal. Plants were emerged on 79 percent of the
acreage.

Rice was 97 percent seeded on June 1, 6 points above normal. Ten percent
of the rice acreage in California remained to be seeded on that date. Rice
was heading in Texas.

Insufficient moisture caused peanut planting to lag behind normal in the
Southeast during May. By the end of May, seeding in Alabama and Georgia was
65 and 87 percent finished, respectively. Seeding was 33 points behind normal

in Alabama and 9 points behind normal in Georgia. Seeding was virtually
complete in North Carolina and Virginia.

U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION

ASTT-1985,
BILLION BUSHELS ,
28 —— - a _
t
28 b
Ls
we
r
@5 -
ae
7 i) i) ts 81 82 cc} 4 Ls} 6
YEAR

WINTER WHEAT production is forecast at 1.58 billion bushels (43.0 million
metric tons) as of June 1, 1986.

This is down 14 percent from 1985 and is the lowest production level since
1978. Area for harvest totals 42.8 million acres (17.3 million hectares), 11
percent less than last year. Yields are expected to average 36.8 bushels per
acre, down 1.3 bushels from last year and 0.6 of a bushel from May 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 B-3 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF JUNE 1 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST

The winter wheat production forecast in this report is based on mail and
objective yield surveys conducted just prior to June 1. Acreage for harvest
is based on information provided by both surveys. The yield estimate is based
on counts and measurements from a probability sample of wheat fields and on
mail reports from farmers on the condition and probable yield of the crop.
Both surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors common to all
surveys. This production forecast is also subject to change due to growing
conditions that may affect the crop after June 1.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1 winter wheat
production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error”, a statistical measure based
on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation
between the June 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage
of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the
1966-1985 twenty-year period; the square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 winter wheat production
forecast is 5.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the
current production forecast of 1.58 billion bushels will not be above or below
the final estimate by more than 5,9 percent or approximately 93.1 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 10.2 percent or approximately 161 million bushels.
Differences between the June 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 96.6 million bushels, ranging
from 15 million to 174 million bushels. The June 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 7 times and above 3 times.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-3 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


CROPS ESTIMATING PROGRAM CHANGES

The following program adjustments were necessary because of reduced funding
in fiscal year 1986 and other program updates.

o Pasture and range condition table and map and crop prospects map were
discontinued’ in the April CROP PRODUCTION report. For later months
(May-November), the pasture and range condition table is retained but
the pasture and range condition maps and crop prospects maps are
discontinued. - The maps are replaced by two crop ‘moisture maps
(short-term and long-term) prepared by the NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural
Weather Facility.

o September 1 winter wheat production forecast is discontinued.
0 October 1 spring wheat production forecast is discontinued,

o All rye and flaxseed production forecasts are discontinued. Acreage
estimates and the end-of-year yield and production estimates are
retained.

o duly 1 barley. and oats production forecasts are discontinued. Acreage
estimates, the August 1 and September 1 forecasts, and the end-of-year
yield and production estimates are retained. The September 1 production
forecasts will be discontinued after [986.

0 End-of-year estimates of corn and sorghum for forage are discontinued.

o Sweetpotato production forecasts and estimates of disposition are
discontinued. Acreage estimates and end-of-year yield and production
estimates are retained. Revisions of the previous year's acreage,
yield, and production will continue to be published in the June CROP
PRODUCTION report.

o A preliminary small grains end-of-season estimate of acreage, yield,
and production will be published in the October CROP PRODUCTION
report. The revised end-of-season estimates for 1986 small grains will
be published in January 1987.

o All fertilizer production and consumption statistics collected and
published by’ NASS, including the annual COMMERCIAL FERTILIZER report
are discontinued. , .

o The 1987 PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS: report will be published in late March
with a March I reference date.

o End-of-year estimates of white wheat production will be reinstated in
Idaho, Oregon, and Washington starting with the 1986 crop. Data for
1986 will be published jin these States' annual summaries, to be
released in early 1987. State data will not be carried in the national
CROP PRODUCTION ANNUAL SUMMARY.

0 End-of-season estimates of dry peas, lentils, wrinkled seed peas, and
Austrian winter peas will be reinstated, starting with the 1986 crops.
Acreage, yield, and production data for dry peas, lentils, and Austrian
winter peas will be published in the CROP PRODUCTION report to be
released October 10. Wrinkled seed pea data will be collected later
and published in the CROP PRODUCTION ANNUAL SUMMARY in January 1987,
Prices received and value of production will be published in CROP
VALUES to be released in January 1987.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with
related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Agricultural Statistics Board which consists of
commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD:
Raymond R, Hancock, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

APPROVED: Rich D. Allen, John 0. Witzig,
_ Maurice —. Johnson, Ray S. Crickenberger,
( = Robert L. Addison, Alan 0. Atkinson,
+ James E. Brewster, Arvin R. Budge,
Ke Be & ia ~{  WiTTiam'N. Dowdy, Doyle C. Johnson,
i Clifton D0. James, Gary A. Nelson,
Darwin £. Ransom, David A. Scoles,
Vaughn L. Siegenthaler.
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE J

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-2 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


SUGARBEETS SLICED 1/

1983
7,000 TONS
us : 20,539 20,548 21,606 21,978

17 RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED
BEETS IN CALIFORNIA.

SUGAR PRODUCTION

SUGAR, RAW VALUE

: YIELD PER TON
STATE 3 PRODUCTION OF CANE OR BEET

SUGAR PRODUCTION
REFINED BASIS

CANE SUGAR :
FLA : 1,412 1,473 234 224 1,320 1,321
HAW : 1,062 1,012 251 256 993 946
LA : 7452 532 200 196 422 497
TEX : al 76 169 166 76 n
us : 3,007 3,033 231 226 2,811 2,835
BEET SUGAR :
us 2,908 2,997 262 265 2,715 2,801
CANE AND BEET SUGAR : 5,912 6,030 5,526 5,636

PRODUCTION
PRODUCT AND STATE PoOUNLT  feeeeneeeeee eee e nee ee eee ee eee
: 1984 1985 1/
THOUSANDS
SUGARCANE PRODUCTS
BLACKSTRAP MOLASSES-800 BRIX 2/ :
FLA : GALLON : — 85,409 92,546
HAW : GALLON : 3/543510 3/47 ,648
LA : GALLON : 24,880 30650
TEX > GALLON : 8,704 7,695
us : GALLON : 173,503 178,539
EDIBLE MOLASSES : :
LA GALLON : 2,070 1,650
us : GALLON : 2,070 1,650
SUGARBEET PRODUCTS - U S : :
MOLASSES : GALLON : 170,426 159,428
PULP : :
MOLASSES : TON: 394 946
DRIED : TON: 347 320
WET > TON 484 551

1/_ PRELIMINARY. 2/ INCLUDES HIGH-TEST MOLASSES FROM FROZEN CANE. 3/ 850
xX.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 A-13 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


MAY WEATHER SUMMARY

Showers and thunderstorms occurred in nearly all parts of the Nation.
Only the extreme Southwest was free of the storms. The most severe weather
was from central Texas into Alabama, from Texas into Iowa, and from Arkansas
through the Ohio Valley. The showers were welcomed in the very dry east coast
States but it was not enough and some parts of the Southeast and the
Mid-Atlantic had only isolated light showers. Beneficial showers also fell in
western Texas. Ory weather for much of the month in the northern Plains
allowed that area to drain and dry so work could progress. It was dry all
month from the Red River Valley through the Great Lakes. Most of the Nation
was warmer than normal but it was a Tittle cooler than normal through most of
the Rockies and the adjacent High Plains. (Prepared by the NOAA/USDA Joint
Agricultural Weather Facility.)

MAY FIELDWORK

Rain slowed seeding in the northern Great Plains and northern Rocky
Mountain States while dryness hampered seeding and germination in the
Southeast. Oryness persisted in the Southeast and along much of the east
coast during most of May. Much needed moisture came to the Southeast the last
week of May.

At the beginning of May, corn was 35 percent seeded, 10 points ahead of
normal but 9 points behind last year. Within one week, planting nearly
doubled to 64 percent finished. Planting continued ahead of normal throughout
the month and was 94 percent finished on June 1, 5 points above the average.
Poor germination caused some replanting in the Corn Belt and in the Southeast
during the month. Corn was silking across the south and reached the
soft-dough stage in Texas, as the month ended.

Soybeans were 56 percent seeded on June 1, compared with 74 percent in
1985 and 54 percent normally. Planting lagged behind normal in the Southeast

and in a few Corn Belt States.

The 11 major sorghum producing States had planted 61 percent of their
acreage by-the end of May, 7 points slower than in 1985 but 8 points faster
than average. Planting exceeded or equaled the average in all States, except
South Dakota and Texas. Wetness delayed planting in South Dakota and dryness
caused delays in Texas. South Dakota's sorghum was 24 percent seeded by
dune 1, compared with the 42 percent average. Sorghum was turning color in
exas.

Cotton planting fell behind normal at mid-month and remained behind normal
the rest of the month. By June 1, 76 percent of the acreage was planted, 6
points behind normal. Seeding was 10 points behind normal in Alabama, 12
points behind in Texas and 15 points behind in Georgia. At month's end crop
conditions varied from mostly good in the Delta and Southwest to mostly fair

in the Southeast. Cotton was poor to fair in Missouri. Insects were becoming
an increasing threat in Texas, Arkansas, and Arizona.

At the end of May, winter wheat was mostly good, except in the Southeast,
where conditions were mostly fair to good. The crop was 82 percent headed in
the 20 major producing States, 8 points ahead of average but 2 points behind
last year. Wheat was 10 percent harvested in Oklahoma, 30 percent in Georgia,
54 percent in Louisiana, 55 percent in Arizona, and 34 percent harvested in
Texas.

CROP PRODUCTION, JUNE 1986 B-2 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA