Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released February 9, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department 

of Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down Less Than 1 Percent from January

The United States all orange forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 8.94 million tons, down less than 1 percent from the 

previous forecast but up 1 percent from the 2010-2011 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 146 million 

boxes (6.57 million tons), is down 1 percent from the January forecast but up 4 percent from last season’s final utilization. 

Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 73.0 million boxes (3.29 million tons), unchanged from the 

January forecast but up 4 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 73.0 million boxes 

(3.29 million tons), is down 1 percent from the January forecast but up 4 percent from the 2010-2011 crop. Sizes for 

Valencia oranges in Florida are expected to be smaller than average. California and Texas forecasts are carried forward 

from January.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 1.63 gallons per box at 

42.0 degrees Brix, up 1 percent from the January forecast and up 3 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.59 gallons 

per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.54 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last season’s yield of 

1.52 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.73 gallons per box, 4 percent higher than last year’s final yield 

of 1.66 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of 

the past several seasons.
2 Crop Production (February 2012)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

This report was approved on February 9, 2012.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Karis T. Gutter

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Hubert Hamer
Crop Production (February 2012) 3

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ................................ 4

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted 

February 1, 2012 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) ........................................................... 6

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)...................................................................... 7

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)................................................................ 8

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) .......................................................................... 9

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units).................................................................... 10

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) ........................................................................ 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation............................................................................................................................................ 12

Departure from Normal Temperature ................................................................................................................................... 12

January Weather Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 13

January Agricultural Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 13

Crop Comments.................................................................................................................................................................... 14

Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15

Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16
4 Crop Production (February 2012)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2010 and 2011

Use and State

Area harvested Yield per acre 1 Production 1

2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (tons) (tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

For sugar

Florida .........................................................

Hawaii 2.......................................................

Louisiana 2..................................................

Texas 2........................................................

United States ..............................................

For seed

Florida .........................................................

Hawaii 2.......................................................

Louisiana 2..................................................

Texas 2........................................................

United States ..............................................

For sugar and seed

Florida .........................................................

Hawaii 2.......................................................

Louisiana 2..................................................

Texas 2........................................................

United States ..............................................

374.0

15.5

390.0

45.8

825.3

18.0

1.9

30.0

2.3

52.2

392.0

17.4

420.0

48.1

877.5

379.0

15.5

385.0

47.0

826.5

18.0

1.5

25.0

2.0

46.5

397.0

17.0

410.0

49.0

873.0

32.7

77.1

27.8

30.5

31.1

41.2

26.3

27.8

31.0

32.5

33.1

71.6

27.8

30.5

31.2

35.5

82.0

28.0

33.5

32.8

41.5

30.0

28.0

35.5

33.6

35.8

77.4

28.0

33.6

32.8

12,230

1,195

10,842

1,396

25,663

742

50

834

71

1,697

12,972

1,245

11,676

1,467

27,360

13,455

1,271

10,780

1,575

27,081

747

45

700

71

1,563

14,202

1,316

11,480

1,646

28,644

1 Net tons.

2 Estimates are carried forward from the Crop Production 2011 Summary released January 2012.
Crop Production (February 2012) 5

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted 

February 1, 2012

[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]

Crop and State

Utilized production boxes 1 Utilized production ton equivalent

2010-2011 2011-2012 2010-2011 2011-2012

(1,000 boxes) (1,000 boxes) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Oranges

Early, mid, and Navel 2

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

Valencia

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

All

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

Grapefruit

White

 Florida ..............................................

Colored

 Florida ..............................................

All

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

Tangerines and mandarins

Arizona 3 4.............................................

California 3 4..........................................

Florida ..................................................

United States ........................................

Lemons 3

Arizona .................................................

California ..............................................

United States ........................................

Tangelos

Florida ..................................................

48,000

70,300

1,700

120,000

13,500

70,000

249

83,749

61,500

140,300

1,949

203,749

5,850

13,900

4,100

19,750

6,300

30,150

300

9,900

4,650

14,850

2,500

21,000

23,500

1,150

44,000

73,000

1,292

118,292

13,500

73,000

334

86,834

57,500

146,000

1,626

205,126

5,200

13,500

3,300

18,700

4,977

26,977

200

10,300

4,300

14,800

700

19,500

20,200

1,100

1,920

3,164

72

5,156

540

3,150

11

3,701

2,460

6,314

83

8,857

249

591

164

840

252

1,256

12

396

221

629

100

840

940

52

1,760

3,285

55

5,100

540

3,285

14

3,839

2,300

6,570

69

8,939

221

574

132

795

199

1,126

8

412

204

624

28

780

808

50

1 Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in 

Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90.

2 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines 

in Texas and Temples in Florida.

3 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

4

Includes tangelos and tangors.
6 Crop Production (February 2012)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2011 2012 2011 2012

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all ................................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all ............................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all ...........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all ........................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 2....................................................................

2,559

91,921

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

2,496

370

2,689

1,266

5,481

(NA)

54,409

40,646

1,369

12,394

1,071.5

(X)

178

23.2

1,140.6

1.5

130.7

74,976

1,543.0

14,732.4

14,426.0

306.4

1,232.8

(NA)

(NA)

18.0

1,205.9

362.0

428.0

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,098.9

93.3

48.2

957.4

(NA)

134.2

(NA)

41,947

2,239

83,981

5,928

55,633

19,213

36,420

939

338

2,618

242

3,929

224

45,705

32,314

1,312

12,079

1,043.0

(X)

173

21.8

1,097.6

1.3

127.3

73,636

1,457.8

9,747.9

9,444.0

303.9

1,213.1

873.0

324.8

12.3

1,155.9

342.8

411.0

(NA)

6.3

29.8

74.0

1,076.7

91.5

46.0

939.2

17.3

130.3

0.5

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.
Crop Production (February 2012) 7

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per acre Production

2011 2012 2011 2012

(1,000) (1,000)

Grains and hay

Barley ................................................................................... bushels

Corn for grain ........................................................................ bushels

Corn for silage ............................................................................tons

Hay, all .......................................................................................tons

 Alfalfa .....................................................................................tons

 All other ..................................................................................tons

Oats ...................................................................................... bushels

Proso millet ........................................................................... bushels

Rice 1........................................................................................... cwt

Rye ....................................................................................... bushels

Sorghum for grain ................................................................. bushels

Sorghum for silage ......................................................................tons

Wheat, all ............................................................................. bushels

 Winter ............................................................................... bushels

 Durum ............................................................................... bushels

 Other spring ...................................................................... bushels

Oilseeds

Canola ...................................................................................pounds

Cottonseed .................................................................................tons

Flaxseed ............................................................................... bushels

Mustard seed .........................................................................pounds

Peanuts .................................................................................pounds

Rapeseed ..............................................................................pounds

Safflower ...............................................................................pounds

Soybeans for beans .............................................................. bushels

Sunflower ..............................................................................pounds

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 1............................................................................... bales

 Upland 1................................................................................ bales

 American Pima 1................................................................... bales

Sugarbeets .................................................................................tons

Sugarcane ..................................................................................tons

Tobacco .................................................................................pounds

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas 1.................................................................. cwt

Dry edible beans 1....................................................................... cwt

Dry edible peas 1......................................................................... cwt

Lentils 1........................................................................................ cwt

Wrinkled seed peas ..................................................................... cwt

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ......................................................................pounds

Hops ......................................................................................pounds

Peppermint oil ........................................................................pounds

Potatoes, all ................................................................................. cwt

 Spring ...................................................................................... cwt

 Summer ................................................................................... cwt

 Fall .......................................................................................... cwt

Spearmint oil .........................................................................pounds

Sweet potatoes ............................................................................ cwt

Taro (Hawaii) .........................................................................pounds

69.6

147.2

18.4

2.36

3.40

1.81

57.1

27.1

7,067

26.1

54.6

10.3

43.7

46.2

38.5

37.7

1,475

(X)

16.1

718

3,313

2,177

1,333

41.5

1,398

772

754

1,336

23.7

32.8

1,850

1,463

1,716

1,641

1,151

(NA)

1,320

2,175

89

397

279

282

414

132

208

(NA)

155,780

12,358,412

108,926

131,144

65,332

65,812

53,649

9,149

185,009

6,326

214,443

2,298

1,999,347

1,493,677

50,482

455,188

1,538,010

5,267.0

2,791

15,644

3,636,320

2,830

169,671

3,056,032

2,038,275

15,673.7

14,828.0

845.7

28,789

28,644

601,029

180

19,833

5,625

4,732

509

8,300

64,781.6

6,570

427,406

25,573

12,960

388,873

2,286

27,041

4,100

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Yield in pounds.
8 Crop Production (February 2012)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2011 2012 2011 2012

(hectares) (hectares) (hectares) (hectares)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2......................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 3....................................................................

1,035,600

37,199,510

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,010,110

149,740

1,088,210

512,340

2,218,110

(NA)

22,018,780

16,449,030

554,020

5,015,730

433,630

(X)

72,030

9,390

461,590

610

52,890

30,342,040

624,440

5,962,050

5,838,060

124,000

498,900

(NA)

(NA)

7,280

488,020

146,500

173,210

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

444,710

37,760

19,510

387,450

(NA)

54,310

(NA)

16,975,530

906,100

33,986,270

2,399,000

22,514,120

7,775,310

14,738,810

380,000

136,790

1,059,480

97,930

1,590,030

90,650

18,496,360

13,077,150

530,950

4,888,250

422,090

(X)

70,010

8,820

444,190

530

51,520

29,799,750

589,960

3,944,880

3,821,890

122,990

490,930

353,290

131,460

4,980

467,780

138,730

166,330

(NA)

2,550

12,050

29,950

435,730

37,030

18,620

380,080

7,000

52,730

200

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2

Total may not add due to rounding.

3 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production (February 2012) 9

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per hectare Production

2011 2012 2011 2012

(metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain ......................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 1.............................................................................

 Alfalfa .............................................................................

 All other ..........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain ...............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 1.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower ............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ...........................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 1.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ...............................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 1.....................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall .................................................................................

Spearmint oil ......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................

3.74

9.24

41.19

5.28

7.62

4.05

2.05

1.52

7.92

1.64

3.43

23.00

2.94

3.11

2.59

2.53

1.65

(X)

1.01

0.80

3.71

2.44

1.49

2.79

1.57

0.87

0.84

1.50

53.20

73.55

2.07

1.64

1.92

1.84

1.29

(NA)

1.48

2.44

0.10

44.49

31.33

31.58

46.41

0.15

23.26

(NA)

3,391,710

313,918,120

98,816,000

118,971,840

59,268,190

59,703,640

778,710

207,500

8,391,870

160,690

5,447,100

2,084,710

54,413,310

40,651,230

1,373,890

12,388,190

697,630

4,778,140

70,890

7,100

1,649,410

1,280

76,960

83,171,560

924,550

3,412,550

3,228,420

184,130

26,116,940

25,985,400

272,620

8,160

899,610

255,150

214,640

23,090

3,760

29,380

2,980

19,386,810

1,159,970

587,860

17,638,980

1,040

1,226,560

1,860

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Production may not add due to rounding.
10 Crop Production (February 2012)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2011 2012

(1,000) (1,000)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit ............................................................................................. tons

Lemons ................................................................................................ tons

Oranges ............................................................................................... tons

Tangelos (Florida) ................................................................................ tons

Tangerines and mandarins ................................................................... tons

Noncitrus

Apples ................................................................................... 1,000 pounds

Apricots ................................................................................................ tons

Bananas (Hawaii) ............................................................................ pounds

Grapes ................................................................................................. tons

Olives (California) ................................................................................ tons

Papayas (Hawaii) ............................................................................ pounds

Peaches ............................................................................................... tons

Pears ................................................................................................... tons

Prunes, dried (California) ..................................................................... tons

Prunes and plums (excludes California) ............................................... tons

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) .......................................................... pounds

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ................................................................. tons

Pecans, in-shell ............................................................................... pounds

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ................................................................ tons

Maple syrup .....................................................................................gallons

1,256

940

8,857

52

629

9,429.9

59.2

7,088.4

65.0

1,129.1

888.3

122.0

13.1

1,950,000

41

251,700

485

2,794

1,126

808

8,939

50

624

1 Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012.
Crop Production (February 2012) 11

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2011 2012

(metric tons) (metric tons)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit ...................................................................................................

Lemons ......................................................................................................

Oranges ......................................................................................................

Tangelos (Florida) ......................................................................................

Tangerines and mandarins .........................................................................

Noncitrus

Apples ........................................................................................................

Apricots ......................................................................................................

Bananas (Hawaii) .......................................................................................

Grapes .......................................................................................................

Olives (California) .......................................................................................

Papayas (Hawaii) .......................................................................................

Peaches .....................................................................................................

Pears ..........................................................................................................

Prunes, dried (California) ............................................................................

Prunes and plums (excludes California) ......................................................

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ......................................................................

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .......................................................................

Pecans, in-shell ..........................................................................................

Walnuts, in-shell (California) .......................................................................

Maple syrup ................................................................................................

1,139,420

852,750

8,034,940

47,170

570,620

4,277,330

53,680

6,430,520

58,970

1,024,340

805,850

110,680

11,840

793,790

37,190

114,170

439,980

13,970

1,021,490

733,010

8,109,320

45,360

566,080

1 Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012.
12 Crop Production (February 2012)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production (February 2012) 13

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

January Weather Summary

The “year without a winter” gained momentum in January, with the majority of the continental United States reporting 

above-normal temperatures. Monthly temperatures averaged more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in parts of the 

north-central United States, while near- to slightly below-normal temperatures were confined to southern Florida and the 

Pacific Northwest.

Nevertheless, cold weather caused some concerns during January. For example, an early-month freeze damaged some 

vegetables and other temperature-sensitive crops across Florida’s peninsula on January 4-5. Later, a mid-January cold 

spell resulted in sub-zero readings across the northern Plains. At the time of the initial cold blast, the northern High 

Plains’ winter wheat crop had no protective snow cover.

Much of the Plains’ wheat belt also experienced drier-than-normal conditions during January, although an early-February 

snow storm provided much-needed moisture across central portions of the region. On both the northern and southern High 

Plains, mild, mostly dry, windy weather reduced wheat’s winter hardiness. In contrast, periods of heavy rain provided 

some drought relief across the southeastern Plains, including central and northeastern Texas.

Farther northeast, slowly developing drought in the upper Midwest contrasted with unfavorably soggy conditions in parts 

of the eastern Corn Belt. In some of the wettest areas of the lower Midwest, numerous freeze-thaw cycles - combined with 

excessive soil moisture - were detrimental to the health of soft red winter wheat.

Meanwhile, drought remained a concern across much of the Deep South as the spring planting season approached. In fact, 

drought intensified during January in the southern Atlantic region, where mostly dry weather and occasional freezes 

resulted in the deterioration of pasture conditions.

Elsewhere, drought also expanded in the West, particularly from California to the Intermountain region. Despite a week of 

wet weather (from January 18-24), the Sierra Nevada ended the month with prospects for a “normal” season diminishing. 

The average water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snow pack stood at 6 inches on January 31, less than 

40 percent of average. Areas to the north, from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies, fared better during January, 

with periods of heavy rain and snow.

January Agricultural Summary

During January, temperatures were above average across much of the Nation, leading to thawing fields, below average 

snowpack, and declining soil moisture levels in many locations. Most notably, temperatures in the northern Great Plains 

were more than 12 degrees above normal, where some winter wheat fields were left unprotected due to a lack of snow 

cover. Precipitation totals varied widely from one region to another, with portions of Texas accumulating more than 

300 percent of normal moisture levels during the month. Elsewhere, the remainder of the Great Plains, as well as the 

Southwest and Atlantic Coast States were unusually dry.

Producers in Florida implemented a variety of freeze protection methods to help limit the impact of several early-month 

cold spells on unharvested winter vegetables. Minor damage was reported in flowering snap bean and squash fields, as 

well as sugarcane fields. In Palm Beach County, green beans in all stages of development suffered significant damage, 

with approximately half of the crop destroyed. Late blight was reported in tomato and potato fields later in the month. 

Scarce rainfall throughout the citrus-producing region left many trees showing signs of wilt, as producers performed 

routine cultural practices and harvested oranges and tangerines.

Despite improving winter wheat conditions in portions of the Texas High Plains early in the month, high winds depleted 

soil moisture levels and blowing sand damaged the crop toward month’s end. Some early-seeded wheat fields failed due 

to unfavorable growing conditions. Cotton producers were busy applying pre-planting herbicides; however, the continued 

dry weather left many producers cautious about increasing acreage using expensive seed. Elsewhere, producers in the 

Lower Valley harvested citrus, vegetables, and sugarcane throughout January.
14 Crop Production (February 2012)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

In portions of the West, dry weather left dryland small grain fields in need of additional moisture to sustain growth. 

Producers in Arizona wrapped up harvest of their 2011 cotton crop mid-month, while barley and Durum wheat seeding 

was ongoing until month’s end. Generally mild winter conditions allowed producers in many areas time for cultivating, 

fertilizing, and irrigating fields in preparation for spring planting.

Crop Comments 

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2011 is estimated at 28.6 million tons, of which 27.1 million 

tons was utilized for sugar and 1.56 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is up 1 percent from 

January and up 5 percent from 2010. Sugarcane producers harvested 873,000 acres for sugar and seed in 2011, unchanged 

from the January forecast. Yield for sugar and seed is estimated at 32.8 tons per acre, up 0.4 ton from January. Estimates 

for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from January.

In Florida, harvest remained active throughout January. Minor freeze damage was reported during the first week of 

January.

Grapefruit: The 2011-2012 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.13 million tons, down 2 percent from the 

previous forecast and down 10 percent from last season’s final utilization. For both white and colored grapefruit in 

Florida, size is projected to be below average with above average droppage. California and Texas grapefruit production 

forecasts are carried forward from the January 1 forecast.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 624,000 tons, down 1 percent 

from both the previous forecast and the 2010-2011 crop. In Florida, the reduced production forecast is primarily due to 

Honey tangerine sizes, which are expected to be below average with higher than average droppage. Arizona and 

California estimates are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. 

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 

4 percent from last season’s final utilization. Fruit size and droppage are higher than average for the tangelo crop.

Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, weather stations reported temperatures ranging from highs in the 80s to lows 

in the 40s. Sparse rainfall continued to worsen drought conditions throughout the citrus region this month. Harvesting of 

early oranges (Navels and Hamlins), white and colored grapefruit, Sunburst tangerines, and Nova Tangelos continued. 

Harvest of Valencia and Honey tangerines began. Production practices included general grove upkeep, fertilizer 

application, and irrigation as needed.

California citrus: Navel orange harvest continued during January, as internal maturity improved. Packing houses 

reported very little frost damage in harvested fruit. Satsuma mandarin, Owari, and Clementine tangerine harvests 

continued. Oro Blanco and Melogold grapefruit harvests neared completion. Pummelo harvest began to pick up.

California noncitrus fruits and nuts: During January, peach and prune orchards were irrigated, pruned, and planted. 

Pruning continued in grape and kiwi vineyards. Persimmon and apple harvests were complete with application of 

pre-emergent and dormant sprays beginning. Walnut harvest finished with groves being irrigated, pruned, and sprayed 

during the month. Almond pruning was complete and stockpiles continued to be hulled. Harvest of pistachios ended and 

pruning began.
Crop Production (February 2012) 15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which 

produces about 75 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season 

based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or 

special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and 

subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the 

previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer 

surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in 

September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were 

also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural 

Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The February 1 production forecast will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month 

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in 

September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including 

information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization 

and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square 

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production 

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage 

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean 

Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the

final end-of-season estimate, assuming factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent 

years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 3.3 percent. However, if you exclude the 

three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 

3.2 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the 

final estimate by more than 3.3 percent, or 3.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent 

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent, or 5.5 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 

303,000 tons (296,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of 

exclusions. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 

8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply the February 1 forecast this year 

is likely to understate or overstate final production.
16 Crop Production (February 2012)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact 

for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch .......................................................................................................(202) 720-2127

Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section ...................................................................................... (202) 720-2127

 Suzanne Avilla – Peanuts, Rice........................................................................................................ (202) 720-7688

 Bryan Durham – Oats, Rye, Wheat.................................................................................................. (202) 720-8068

 Steve Maliszewski – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................................................ (202) 720-5944

 Anthony Prillaman – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet ......................................................................... (202) 720-9526

 Julie Schmidt – Crop Weather, Barley, Hay .................................................................................... (202) 720-7621

 Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..................................................................(202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............................................(202) 720-2127

 Debbie Flippin – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries......................................(202) 720-2157

 Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ...............................................(202) 720-4288

 Chris Hawthorn – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits.........................................(202) 720-5412

 Dave Losh – Hops............................................................................................................................(360) 709-2400 

 Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,

 Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ..................................................(202) 720-3250

 Daphne Schauber – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ...............................................(202) 720-4285

 Erika White – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts .......................................................(202) 720-4215
Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:

 All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

 Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free 

subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the “Follow NASS” box under “Receive reports by Email,” 

click on “National” or “State” to select the reports you would like to receive. 

 Printed reports may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) by calling toll-free 

(800) 999-6779, or (703) 605-6220 if calling from outside the United States or Canada. Accepted methods of 

payment are Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 

7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 

 

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United States Department of Agriculture

Moving Agriculture Forward

USDA – Growing, Innovating, and Celebrating 150 Years

February 23-24, 2012

Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel • Arlington, Virginia

Early Registration $375 until January 23, 2012

$425 after January 23

To register, go to:

www.usda.gov/oce/forum

— more than 80 speakers —

Program at a Glance is available online