Ethanol Production, Distribution, and Use 

Discussions on Key Issues

Rocky Mountain Fleet Managers Association

5-14-08

Gerry Harrow

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

NREL/PR-540-43567
Today’s Topics

• Ethanol Basics

• Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFVs)

• Energy Balance 

• Supply and Price Impacts on Food

• Land Use

• Water Use

• Emissions

• Tools and Resources
Ethanol Production

2006 Capacity: 4.9 billion gal/year

(96.1% using natural gas as energy source with

2% coal, 1% coal and biomass, 1% syrup)

EPA, EPA420-D-06-008

January 2008 Capacity: 7.9 billion gal/year

at 139 biorefineries RFA, 1/2008

Projected Future Production Capacity: 13.4 billion 

gal/year (online and under construction) RFA, 1/2008

Current Gasoline Usage: 141.8 billion gallons/year

or 388.6 million gal/day EIA, 7/2007

Dry Mill Production Efficiencies

2001-2006

• Ethanol Yield: ↑ 6.4% per bushel

• Total Energy Use: ↓ 21.8%

• Grid Electricity Use: ↓ 15.7%

• CO2 Collection: ↑ 23.5%

• Consumptive Water Use: ↓ 26.6%

Analysis of the Efficiency for the U.S. Ethanol Industry 2007, Argonne National Laboratory, 3/2008
Alternative Fuels and Advanced 

Vehicles Data Center

Recent Awards

$4.1 million, USDA, woody biomass development

$18.4 million over three years; DOE/USDA; biomass research, development and demonstration projects

$33.8 million over four years, DOE, further development of commercially viable renewable fuels

Up to $86 million over four years, DOE, support development of small scale cellulosic biorefineries

Cellulosic Ethanol Production
Ethanol Fuels

• E10: Uses existing vehicles and infrastructure

• E85: Used in FFVs and requires specialized 

infrastructure

• E15-E20: Not a legal fuel except for use in 

FFVs. Currently being explored for non-FFVs
How are FFVs different?

www.eere.energy.gov/afdc/pdfs/42953.pdf
Current FFV Population

Total U.S. Light-Duty FFVs

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

*MY 2008 total estimated through Jan 31 Million FFVs

Source: AFDC

There are currently more than 6 million FFVs on U.S. roads.
2008 MY FFV Availability

• 22 models available from 

five manufacturers

• Light-duty cars to full-size 

pickups and SUVs

www.eere.energy.gov/afdc/pdfs/my2008_afv_atv.pdf
Existing E85 Infrastructure

www.eere.energy.gov/afdc/ethanol/ethanol_locations.html

There were 1,444 total E85 stations as of May 13, 2008.
Infrastructure Considerations

• There is currently no UL-certified dispensing 

equipment.

• Most jurisdictions allow alternate equivalent 

dispenser designs to be submitted for 

approval. Each jurisdiction has its own 

process and discretion in granting variances 

or waivers to approve designs not UL- certified. 

• Firefighting technique is different. First 

responders must use alcohol-resistant foams.

• Federal and state incentives are available for 

alternative fuel infrastructure.
Do you get decreased fuel economy?

• E85 has 72%-77% of the energy content of gasoline 

(116,090 BTU/gallons for gasoline vs. 76,330 

BTU/gallons for 100% ethanol). www.eere.energy.gov/afdc/fuels/properties.html

– You would expect 23%-28% decrease in fuel economy from 

energy content difference

• FuelEconomy.gov shows FFV mpg ratings are 

20%-36% lower for city and 20%-32% lower for highway 

than non conventional vehicles.

– Fuel economy impact is model-dependent but shows decreases

• Ethanol’s lower energy content by volume means more fuel is 

needed to get the same power. Power is limited by the 

volume of the fuel/air mixture that the cylinder can handle.
Does higher octane mean more power?

• Octane is a measure of auto ignition (detonation) 

resistance and is sometimes referred to as knock 

resistance

• Higher octane is beneficial in spark ignition engines 

designed for the higher octane

– Increased combustion chamber compression

– Supercharged or turbocharged

– Bigger displacement

• Not a measure of deflagration (burn) or energy 

content
Ethanol Energy Balance

Most studies conclude that there is a 

net positive gain in life cycle energy 

when ethanol is produced from corn. 

The amount of gain is greater when a 

cellulosic feedstock is used.
Ethanol Energy Balance

ANL, Ethanol, the complete energy lifecycle picture, 3/2007
Ethanol Energy Balance for Corn 

Ethanol

ANL, Ethanol, the complete energy lifecycle picture, 3/2007
Ethanol Energy Balance

ANL, Energy Balance of Gasoline and E85, 2007
Fossil Energy Ratio

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Cellulosic

Ethanol

Biorefinery

Biodiesel

(soybean oil)

Corn

Ethanol

Gasoline Electricity

5.3

3.2

1.4

0.8

0.4

Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) =

Fossil Energy Used

Energy Delivered to Customer

Biodiesel data from “An Overview of Biodiesel and Petroleum Diesel Life Cycles”, J. 

Sheehan, et al., 1998; J. Sheehan/M. Wang 2003

Fossil Energy Ratio
Factors Affecting Food Costs

• Higher Agricultural Commodity and Energy Prices

• Growth in Foreign Demand for Grains

• Reduced Foreign Competition and Supply

• Depreciating U.S. Dollar

• Buying of Grain and Oilseed Futures

• Weather, Drought
• Less than one third of U.S. retail food contains 

corn as a major ingredient. Amber Waves, February 2008, USDA

• Corn exports increased from 53.9 metric tons in 

2006/2007 to 63.5 metric tons in 2007/2008. 

USDA, FAS, 5/2008

• Ethanol production and availability may have 

positively impacted fuel costs.

• “Across all food consumed, 30% higher corn prices 

increase all average food prices by 1.1%.” 

Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Helen H. Jensen, 

Bruce A. Babcock, Iowa Ag Review, Summer 2007

Factors Affecting Food Costs
Components of Retail Food Costs

Transportation

Energy 4%

4% Packaging

7%

Profits

Rent 4%

4%

Advertising

4%

Taxes

4% Depreciation

4%

Interest

3% Repairs

2%

Other Costs

3%

Farm Value

19%

Labor

38%

Source: USDA

Direct energy costs and transportation costs account for 

roughly 8% of retail food costs in 2005. 

Main Street Economist, Vol. III, Issue I; 2008; Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Corn as Feed

• Feed Corn Usage

– 2.6 lb of corn to produce 1 lb of chicken

– 6.5 lb of corn to produce 1 lb of pork

– 7 lb of corn to produce 1 lb of beef

• With corn at $2.28/bushel (20 year average), 56 lb/bushel 

or $.04/lb of corn, feed corn adds:

– $.10/lb of chicken

– $.26/lb of pork

– $.28/lb of beef 

• Using the 2007 average price of corn of $3.40/ bushel and 

assuming price increases would all be passed on to the 

consumer, prices would have increased:

– $.05/lb for chicken

– $.13/lb for pork

– $.14/lb for beef Amber Waves, Vol. 6, Issue 1; USDA
Corn Products 

for Human Consumption

• An 18-oz box of corn flakes contains approximately 

12.9-oz of milled field corn

– With corn at $2.28/bushel (20 year average), 56 lb/bushel or 

$.04/lb of corn, the corn value of the corn in this box is $.033.

– Using the 2007 average price of corn of $3.40 and assuming price 

increases will all be passed on to the consumer, prices would 

increase by $.016.

• A 2-liter bottle of soda contains approximated 15 oz of 

corn in the form of high-fructose corn syrup. 

– With corn at $2.28/bushel (20 year average) the value of the corn 

is $.038.

– Using $3.40/bushel prices would increase by $.019.

Amber Waves, Vol. 6, Issue 1, USDA
Corn Farming Productivity

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Corn Yield, bu/acre

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Yield bu/acre

Thousand Acres Harvested

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Thousand Acres

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Nutrients, lb/acre

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nitrogen

Phosphate

Potash

http://www.nass.usda.gov/QuickStats/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/

• Long-term trend for yield 

increase since 1940

• Acres planted generally decline 

or remain constant

• Fertilizer application increased 

rapidly until about 1980 then 

leveled off

• Yield increases continued 

unabated

– Less fertilizer per bushel

– Precision farming (GIS)

– Improved crop strains

• Tillage has also been reduced
• The primary ecological 

impacts of biofuels are in 

agriculture

• Significant economic 

incentives to farm with 

less inputs

– Farm output per unit of 

energy down more than 

50% in 60 years

– Large growth (3x) in no-till 

farming

– Data also show reduced 

use of pesticides and 

dangerous pesticides

Farming Practices
Land Use

• 2007/2008: Out of the 86 million corn acres 

harvested, 21 million acres were used to produce 

approximately 6.5 billion gallons of ethanol.

• 2017/2018: Out of the 85 million harvested corn 

acres, USDA projects 28 million acres will be used 

to produce 4.9 billion bushels of corn for ethanol. 

This translates into approximately 13 billion gallons 

of ethanol using current published ethanol 

production yields (2.8 gallons/ bushel)

USDA Long-Term Agricultural Projection Tables, 2/2008; 

RFA Ethanol Industry Outlook 2008; USDA Amber Waves, 4/2006
EISA 2007 Renewable Fuel Standard

36 billion gallons of total renewable 

fuels by 2022

• 21 billion gallons of advanced biofuels

– 1 billion gallons of biodiesel

– 16 billion gallons of cellulosic biofuels

– 4 billion gallons from any source

• 15 billion gallons from corn ethanol
Possible 2017/ 2018 Scenario

Gallons Ethanol

• Crop Residue: Cellulosic 9.4-12.2 billion 

(Only 28% of land can have residual removed due to erosion concerns)

• CRP: Cellulosic 4.2-12 billion

(12 million acres out of 37 million acres in CRP)

• CRP: Corn 2.6-3.1 billion

(CRP acreage suitable for corn of 6.4 million acres)

• Corn 11.3-13.7 billion

(28.3 million acres)

Total for 2017/2018 27.5-42 billion

USDA Long-Term Agricultural Projection Tables, 2/2008; RFA Ethanol Industry Outlook 2008; USDA Amber Waves, 

4/2006; USDA Amber Waves, 11/2007; USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections: U.S. Crops 2008-2017, 2/2008; 

ORNL, Biomass as Feedstock for a Bioenergy and Bioproduct Industry: The Technical Feasibility of a Billion-Ton 

Annual Supply, 4/2005, NAICC Annual Meeting Presentation, Hal Collins, USDA-ARS; NRDC Growing Biofuels: 

How Biofuels Can Help End America’s Oil Dependence, 12/2004, EERE Biomass Program Web site 

Assuming trends, farm legislation, weather, and crop yield 

growth continue to track as in the past and Conservation 

Reserve Program (CRP) land can be used for corn and 

perennials...
Corn Use

2007/2008 2017/2018

Feed 45% 40%

Exports 19% 17%

Ethanol 25% 33%

USDA Long Term Agricultural Projection tables released 2/2008

Distillers grains from each bushel of corn used to 

produce ethanol substitutes for about a fifth of a 

bushel of direct corn feeding in livestock rations.

USDA Ethanol Expansion in the United States: How Will the Agricultural Sector Adjust? 5/2007
EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2008 

(March 2008 early release)

“Although the situation is very uncertain, the current 

state of the industry and EIA’s present view of projected 

rates of technology development and market penetration 

of cellulosic biofuel technologies suggest that available 

quantities of cellulosic biofuels before 2022 will be 

insufficient to meet the new RFS targets for cellulosic 

biofuels, triggering both waivers and a modification of 

applicable volumes. ... The modification of volumes 

reduces the overall target in 2022 from 36 billion gallons 

to 32.5 billion gallons.”
Water Usage

• 96% of field corn used for ethanol is not irrigated

• Water consumption for the other 4% is approximately 

1.2 acre-feet of water per acre or approximately 

785 gallons for every gallon of ethanol produced

• Water usage for ethanol production ranges from 

3-4 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol produced.

• Future cellulosic production is estimated to use 

1.9-6 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol

• Water usage for petroleum refining ranges between 

2-2.5 gallons per gallon of gasoline 

Water Usage for Current and Future Ethanol Production, Andy Aden, National 

Renewable Energy Laboratory, Southwest Hydrology, 9-10/2007
Price Impact on Gasoline

“The growth in ethanol production has caused retail 

gasoline prices to be $0.20 to $0.40 per gallon lower 

than would otherwise been the case.”

The Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and on the 

Profitability of the U.S. Oil Refinery Industry, Working Paper 08-WP 467, April 2008, 

Xiaodong Du and Dermot J. Hayes, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, 

Iowa State University

“Oil and gas prices would be about 15% higher if 

biofuel producers weren’t increasing their output.”

Francisco Blanch, Merrill Lynch, The Wall Street Journal, 3/2008

“The use of 10% ethanol blend saved Missouri drivers 

$.077 per gallon at the retail pump in 2007.”

Impact of Ethanol on Retail Gasoline Prices in Missouri, John M. Urbanchuk, LECG LLC, 4/2008
Global Factors Affecting 

Food Costs

• Global Grain Supply: ↓

• Global Grain Demand: ↑

• Value of the Dollar: ↓

• Oil Demand: ↑

• Buying of Grain and Oilseed Futures: ↑
Global Grain Demand Increases

• Growth in foreign exchange holdings by major food 

importing countries (OPEC, Russia, Ukraine, China, 

Japan and other Asian countries)

• Protective policies by importers as food security 

measures

– Reduced import tariffs and subsidies for consumers

• Biofuels

• Devaluation of the dollar, which may reduce importing 

costs 

• Increased per capita income in developing countries, 

which increased per capita consumption of staples and 

diversified diet to include more meat and dairy

• Population Growth

Economic Research Service, USDA, WRS-0801, 5/2008
Global Supply: Fewer Sources and 

Reduced Supplies

• Adverse Weather

– Droughts in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Australia, and 

other countries

– Decreased yields due to weather in other countries

• Protective policies by exporters to reduce food 

price inflation

– Eliminated export subsidies, export taxes, 

quantitative restrictions, export bans

• Reduction in research and development 

focused on yield-enhancing technologies 

slowing production growth

Economic Research Service, USDA, WRS-0801, 5/2008
Grains as Food

• U.S. food supply: Nutrients contributed from 

major food groups, per capita per day, in 

2004 were 23.5% from grain

USDA Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion, 2/2007

• Percent of diet in low-income countries

– Low-income Asian countries: 63% 

– Low-income North Africa and Commonwealth of 

Independent States: 60%

– Sub-Saharan Africa: 50%

– Latin America: 43%

– Eritrea and Ethiopia: 70%

– Bangladesh: 80%

Amber Waves, Vol. 6, Issue 1; USDA
Ethanol Emissions

Well-to-Wheel GHG 

– Decreases dependent on feedstock and energy 

source

Tailpipe

– Decreased NOx, CO, benzene, butadiene, PM, 

and NMHC

– Significant increases in formaldehyde and 

acetaldehyde

Evaporative

– E10 increases evaporative emissions in non FFVs

– E85 lowers evaporative emissions

Other than EPA-certification data, there is 

limited current information available.
GHG Emissions

ANL, Well-to-Wheels GHG emission Changes: Fuel Ethanol Relative to Gasoline, 2/2007
California Energy Commission 

Comparison of Options for Reducing 

GHG and Petroleum Use

GHG Emissions and Petroleum Use of Fuels in California's Light-Duty Vehicles

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Electric

E85, Forest Res.

E85, Sugarcane

E85, Switchgrass

NG H2 in fuel cell

PHEV

E85, CA Corn

electr. H2 in fuel cell

B20

CNG

HEV

Diesel

LPG

E85, Midwest CornE10, Midwest Corn

RFG (baseline)

Tar Sands RFG

NG LH2 in ICEV

GHG Emissions (g/mi)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Energy from Petroleum (MJ/mi)

GHG Emissions (g/mi)

Petroleum Use (MJ/mi)

Source: AFDC

See notes 

See notes ↓

Fuel Cycle Assessment: Well-to-Wheels Energy Inputs, Emissions, and Water Impacts: Part of 

the State Plan to Increase the Use of Non-Petroleum Transportation Fuels; California Energy 

Commission, 2007; www.energy.ca.gov/2007public
NOx

% Change E85 vs Gasoline in FFVs

Literature Data

% Change

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Number of Vehicles

0

10

20

30

40

NOx

% Change in E85 vs Gasoline in Comparable Vehicles

Literature Data

% Change

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Number of Vehicles

0

10

20

30

40

Geometeric Mean = -18%

95% Conf. Int. = -27% to -9%

E85 Average = 0.18 g/mi

Geometeric Mean = -54%

95% Conf. Int. = -60% to -46%

NOx

% Change E85 vs Gasoline in FFVs

EPA Certification Data

% Change

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Number of Vehicles

0

10

20

30

40

50

NOx

% Change in E85 vs Gasoline in Comparable Vehicles

EPA Certification Data

% Change

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Number of Vehicles

0

2

4

6

8

10

Geometeric Mean = -14%

95% Conf. Int. = -23% to -5%

E85 Average = 0.10 g/mi

Geometeric Mean = -14%

95% Conf. Int. = -34% to -11%

Effect of E85 on Tailpipe Emissions from Light-Duty Vehicles, McCormick/Yanowitz; 

accepted for publication in the Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association

NOx Emissions Comparisons of FFVs 

Using E85 vs. Gasoline
CO

% Change E85 vs Gasoline in FFVs

Literature Data

% Change

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

Number of Vehicles

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

CO

% Change in E85 vs Gasoline in Comparable Vehicles

Literature Data

% Change

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

Number of Vehicles

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Geometric Mean = -20%

95% Conf. Int. = -39% to +4%

E85 Average = 2.28 g/mi

Geometric Mean = -18%

95% Conf. Int. = -27% to -8%

CO

% Change E85 vs Gasoline in FFVs

EPA Certification Data

% Change

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

Number of Vehicles

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CO

% Change in E85 vs Gasoline in Comparable Vehicles

EPA Certification Data

% Change

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

Number of Vehicles

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Geometric Mean = -19%

95% Conf. Int. = -25% to -12%

E85 Average = 1.2 g/mi

Geometric Mean = -13%

95% Conf. Int. = -32% to 12%

Effect of E85 on Tailpipe Emissions from Light-Duty Vehicles, McCormick/Yanowitz; 

accepted for publication in the Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association

CO Emissions Comparisons of FFVs 

Using E85 vs. Gasoline
Effects on Tailpipe Emissions of 

Gasoline Used in FFV vs. Non FFV

Effect of E85 on Tailpipe Emissions from Light-Duty Vehicles, McCormick/Yanowitz; 

accepted for publication in the Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association
NREL Emissions Data Review

E85 versus Gasoline 

in non-FFV:

Tier 1 Tier 2

NMHC -27% --

NMOG -- -2%

CO -18% -42%

NOx -54% -37%

PM reduced reduced

Formaldehyde +56% +13%

Acetaldehyde +2000% no data

Benzene -86% no data

Butadiene -91% no data

NREL
California Low-Emission Vehicle 

Program and FFVs

Excerpts from Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers Statement

• Emissions

– Current vehicles have 99% fewer emissions than 1970s counterpart

– E85-capable vehicles cannot meet CA LEV’s SULEV standard

– Expected that California will update 2008 program to so the average 

vehicle will have to meet the SULEV standard

• ZEV Mandates

– 40% of vehicles sold in the state to certify to the ZEV standards

– FFVs cannot meet the SULEV standards required

– FFVs cannot meet the evaporative emissions in the PZEV category

– To date, no FFVs have been certified to meet any of the ZEV 

standards

• CO2

– No practical way for automakers to get credit toward their fleet 

averages

– Require proof that the vehicle is operating on E85 
Where can I get more information?
Clean Cities

• DOE’s Clean Cities 

– 86 coalitions bring 

local and regional 

resources together

• Technical Assistance

– Industry and national 

laboratory experts for

local implementation 

issues

• Strategy Development

– National partnerships with industry, 

manufacturers, etc., to enable local progress
Data and Tools

• Technology- and UserSpecific Tools to Support 

Implementation

– Fleet Decision Tools

– Cost Calculators

– Fuel Implementation 

Resources
Data and Tools

• Alternative Fuels and 

Advanced Vehicles Data 

Center

– Primary source of data on 

implementation of alternative 

fuels and more

– Federal and state incentives, 

fueling station locations, 

available vehicles, industry 

resources

– Averaging more than 1 million 

pages of information viewed 

per month
Resources

• NREL Web Sites

– www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels

– www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/fleettest

• DOE Web Sites

– www.eere.energy.gov/cleancities

– www.eere.energy.gov/afdc

– www.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/epact

– www.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/avta/index.html
Thank you!

Gerry Harrow

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

gerry_harrow@nrel.gov

303-275-4670