Mortality Experience of the

1986–2000 National Health

Interview Survey Linked

Mortality Files Participants

Series 2, Number 147 October 2008
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Ingram DD, Lochner KA, Cox CS. Mortality experience of the 1986–2000

National Health Interview Survey linked mortality files participants. National

Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 2(147). 2008.

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Mortality experience of the 1986–2000 national health interview survey linked

mortality files participants.

p. cm. Includes bibliographical references.
 

ISBN 0–8406–0626–5
 

1. Mortality--United States. 2. United States--Statistics, Vital. I. National

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Series 2, Number 147

Mortality Experience of the

1986–2000 National Health

Interview Survey Linked

Mortality Files Participants

Data Evaluation and Methods Research

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

National Center for Health Statistics

Hyattsville, Maryland

October 2008

DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 2009-1347
National Center for Health Statistics

Edward J. Sondik, Ph.D., Director

Jennifer H. Madans, Ph.D., Acting Co-Deputy Director

Michael H. Sadagursky, Acting Co-Deputy Director

Jennifer H. Madans, Ph.D., Associate Director for Science

Jennifer H. Madans, Ph.D., Acting Associate Director for

Planning, Budget, and Legislation

Michael H. Sadagursky, Associate Director for

Management and Operations

Lawrence H. Cox, Ph.D., Associate Director for Research

and Methodology

Linda B. Torian, Acting Director for Information Technology

Linda B. Torian, Acting Director for Information Services

Linda T. Bilheimer, Ph.D., Associate Director for Analysis

and Epidemiology

Charles J. Rothwell, M.S., Director for Vital Statistics

Jane E. Sisk, Ph.D., Director for Health Care Statistics

Jane F. Gentleman, Ph.D., Director for Health Interview

Statistics

Clifford L. Johnson, M.S.P.H., Director for Health and

Nutrition Examination Surveys

Office of Analysis and Epidemiology

Linda T. Bilheimer, Ph.D., Associate Director for Analysis

and Epidemiology

Amy B. Berstein, Ph.D., Chief, Analytic Studies Branch
Contents
 

Acknowledgments ......................................................................................... 1 
 

Abstract ................................................................................................. 1 
 

Introduction ............................................................................................. 1 
 

Description of Linked Mortality Data Resources.............................................................. 2 
 

Description of U.S. Life Table Data Resources ................................................................ 2 
 

Methods ................................................................................................. 2 
 

Analytic Sample ........................................................................................ 2 
 

Mortality Ascertainment .................................................................................. 2 
 

Statistical Methods ...................................................................................... 2 
 

Results .................................................................................................. 3 
 

Discussion ............................................................................................... 11 
 

References ............................................................................................... 13 
 

Text Figures

1.	 Survival curves for adults aged 55–59 years, by race and sex: 1987 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and
 

U.S. population ..................................................................................... 4 
 

2.	 Survival curves for adults aged 65–69 years, by race and sex: 1987 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and
 

U.S. population ..................................................................................... 5 
 

3.	 Survival curves for adults aged 75–79 years, by race and sex: 1987 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and
 

U.S. population ..................................................................................... 6 
 

4.	 Survival curves for adults aged 55–59 years, by race and sex: 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and
 

U.S. population ..................................................................................... 7 
 

5.	 Survival curves for adults aged 65–69 years, by race and sex: 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and
 

U.S. population ..................................................................................... 8 
 

6.	 Survival curves for adults aged 75–79 years, by race and sex: 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and
 

U.S. population ..................................................................................... 9 
 

7.	 Survival curves for adults aged 55–59 years, by race and sex: 1997 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and
 

U.S. population ..................................................................................... 10 
 

8.	 Survival curves for adults aged 65–69 years, by race and sex: 1997 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and
 

U.S. population ..................................................................................... 11 
 

9.	 Survival curves for adults aged 75–79 years, by race and sex: 1997 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and
 

U.S. population ..................................................................................... 12 
 

Detailed Tables

1.	 Number of white and black sample participants aged 18 years and over, by eligibility status, NDI mortality status,
 

race, and sex: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files .................................................... 15 
 

2.	 Unweighted numbers of NHIS participants, by age at NHIS interview and NHIS cohort: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked
 

Mortality Files ..................................................................................... 16 
 

3.	 Weighted percent distribution of NHIS participants, by age at NHIS interview and NHIS cohort: 1986–2000 NHIS
 

Linked Mortality Files ............................................................................... 16 
 

4.	 Unweighted number and percentage of decedents among sample participants, by age at NHIS interview and NHIS
 

cohort: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files.......................................................... 17 
 

iii
5.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, 15, and 16 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for
 

the 1986 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age........................................... 18 
 

6.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 15 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1987 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 20 
 

7.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 14 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1988 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 21 
 

8.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 13 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1989 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 22 
 

9.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 12 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1990 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 23 
 

10.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 11 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1991 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 24 
 

11.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, and 10 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 25 
 

12.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, and 9 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1993 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 26 
 

13.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, and 8 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1994 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 27 
 

14.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, and 7 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1995 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 28 
 

15.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, and 6 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the
 

1996 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age.............................................. 29 
 

16.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2 and 5 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1997
 

NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age .................................................. 30 
 

17.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2 and 4 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1998
 

NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age .................................................. 31 
 

18.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2 and 3 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1999
 

NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age .................................................. 32 
 

19.	 Cumulative survival probabilities after 2 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 2000 NHIS
 

Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age........................................................ 33 
 

20.	 Percent distribution of the size of the differences between the NHIS and U.S. cumulative survival probabilities,
 

by NHIS cohort, race, sex, statistical significance, and size of the differences: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked
 

Mortality Files ..................................................................................... 34 
 

21.	 Number and percentage of statistically significant differences between the cumulative survival probabilities for
 

the NHIS Linked Mortality Files and those for the U.S. population, by length of follow-up and NHIS cohort:
 

1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files ................................................................ 35 
 

22.	 Number and percentage of significant differences between the cumulative survival probabilities for the NHIS
 

cohorts and those for the U.S. population, by NHIS cohort, race, and sex: 1986–2000 NHIS-NDI Linked
 

Mortality Files ..................................................................................... 36 
 

23.	 Number and percentage of statistically significant differences between the cumulative survival probabilities based
 

on the NHIS Linked Mortality File and those for the U.S. population, by NHIS cohort, age at NHIS interview, and
 

length of follow-up: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files ............................................... 37 
 

iv
Objectives

The National Center for Health

Statistics (NCHS) has produced the

1986–2000 National Health Interview

Survey (NHIS) Linked Mortality Files by

linking eligible adults in the 1986–2000

NHIS cohorts through probabilistic record

linkage to the National Death Index to

obtain mortality follow-up through

December 31, 2002. The resulting files

contain more than 120,000 deaths and an

average of 9 years of survival time. To

assess how well mortality was ascertained

in the linked mortality files, NCHS has

conducted a comparison of the mortality

experience of the 1986–2000 NHIS

cohorts with that of the U.S. population.

This report presents the results of this

comparative mortality assessment.

Methods

The survival of each annual NHIS

cohort was compared with that of the U.S.

population during the same period.

Cumulative survival probabilities for each

annual NHIS cohort were derived using

the Kaplan-Meier product limit method,

and corresponding cumulative survival

probabilities were computed for the U.S.

population using information from annual

U.S. life tables. The survival probabilities

were calculated at various lengths of

follow-up for each age-race-sex group of

each NHIS cohort and for the U.S.

population.

Results

As expected, mortality tended to be

underestimated in the NHIS cohorts

because the sample includes only civilian,

noninstitutionalized persons, but this

underestimation generally was not

statistically significant. Statistically

significant differences increased with

length of follow-up, occurred more often

for white females than for the other

race-sex groups, and occurred more often

in the oldest age groups. In general, the

survival experience of the age-race-sex

groups of each NHIS cohort corresponds

quite closely to that of the U.S.

population, providing support that the

ascertainment of mortality through the

probabilistic record linkage accurately

reflects the mortality experience of the

NHIS cohorts.

Keywords: mortality c record linkage c

follow-up studies c cohort studies c

passive follow-up

Mortality Experience of the

1986–2000 National Health

Interview Survey Linked

Mortality Files Participants

by Deborah D. Ingram, Ph.D.; Kimberly A. Lochner, Ph.D.; and

Christine S. Cox, M.A., Office of Analysis and Epidemiology

Although the linked mortality files Introduction resulting from NCHS’s data linkage

activities are highly valuable for

The National Center for Health epidemiologic and health services

Statistics (NCHS) periodically conducts research, they have limitations due to

mortality follow-up studies for its major the passive nature of the follow-up.

population-based surveys through record Because NHIS participants were not

linkage to administrative data sources. recontacted to determine their mortality

In 2004, NCHS completed a mortality status but rather had their mortality

follow-up study for the 1986–2000 status ascertained through probabilistic

National Health Interview Survey matching to death records, error is

(NHIS) cohorts in which mortality introduced because of false positive and

follow-up through December 31, 2002, false negative matches. False positive

was obtained by linking NHIS matches can occur in two ways: 1) when

participants to the National Death Index an NHIS participant, who is alive, is

(NDI), thus adding a prospective incorrectly matched to an NDI death

component to these nationally certificate, in which case the assumption

representative U.S. samples. The of death is incorrect, or 2) when a

resulting 1986–2000 NHIS Linked deceased NHIS participant is matched to

Mortality Files are a population-based the wrong NDI death certificate, in

data source containing more than which case the assigned date and cause

120,000 deaths and an average of 9 of death are likely to be incorrect. False

years of survival time. The high-quality negative matches occur when a deceased

sociodemographic, health, and mortality participant is not matched to an NDI

information available in these files record and, thus, is wrongly assumed to

provides the opportunity to conduct be alive. NCHS has made every effort

studies of the association of a variety of to minimize false positive and false

health factors with mortality in a negative matches. An evaluation of the

nationally representative sample of the current matching algorithm used to link

civilian noninstitutionalized U.S. NHIS participant records to NDI death

population. records demonstrated that the matching

The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions made by Emily Plunkett, who assisted with data input and

the initial SAS programming as a Joint Program in Survey Methodology Program intern at the National Center

for Health Statistics (NCHS). The authors also gratefully acknowledge the assistance of the following

people at NCHS who reviewed this report: Amy B. Bernstein and Diane M. Makuc, Office of Analysis and

Epidemiology, and Jennifer H. Madans, Acting Deputy Director, Office of the Center Director.

This report was edited by Megan M. Cox and Demarius V. Miller, CDC/CCHIS/NCHS/Division of

Creative Services, Writer-Editor Services Branch, and typeset by Zung T. Le, CDC/CCHIS/NCHM/

Division of Creative Services; graphics were produced by Zorica Tomic-Whalen, CDC/CCHIS/NCHM/

Division of Creative Services, NOVA contractor.

Page 1
Page 2 [ Series 2, No. 147

algorithm correctly classified 98.5% of

survey records (1).

Incorrect matches or nonmatches

can lead to differences between the

survival experience of the sample and

that of the population itself. This may

be particularly true for specific age and

race groups for which the probability of

correct matches may be lower.

Therefore, to assess how well mortality

was ascertained in the linked mortality

files, NCHS has conducted a

comparison of the mortality experience

of the 1986–2000 NHIS cohorts with

that of the U.S. population. Cumulative

survival probabilities for each annual

NHIS cohort were derived using the

Kaplan-Meier product limit method, and

corresponding cumulative survival

probabilities were computed for the U.S.

population using information from U.S.

life tables. However, the U.S. life tables

only approximate the expected survival

of the NHIS cohorts because the NHIS

sample is restricted to the civilian

noninstitutionalized portion of the U.S.

population. Survival differences between

the NHIS cohorts and the U.S.

population are expected to be greatest

among persons who were elderly at

baseline and to decrease over time as

the NHIS cohorts age and approach the

patterns of the total U.S. population.

This report presents the results of this

comparative mortality assessment.

Description of Linked

Mortality Data Resources

A linkage of eligible adult NHIS

participants to death certificate data

found in the NDI was conducted for

each of the 1986–2000 NHIS cohorts,

with mortality follow-up through

December 31, 2002. Mortality status is

ascertained from a probabilistic match

between NHIS participant records and

NDI death certificate records using key

identification information. For more

information on eligibility criteria and the

matching methodology, please refer to

‘‘The 1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality

File: Matching Methodology’’ (1).

NCHS has created two versions of the

new NHIS Linked Mortality Files:

restricted-use files that include detailed

mortality information and public-use

files that include a limited set of

mortality variables.

Description of U.S. Life

Table Data Resources

NCHS annually produces period (or

current) life tables for the United States

based on final mortality data and U.S.

Census Bureau July 1 postcensal

population estimates for the year. Period

life tables apply the age-specific death

rates observed for the year to a

hypothetical cohort and, therefore,

assume that the cohort is subject

throughout its lifetime to the death rates

prevailing during that year for the U.S.

population. For 1986–1995, the annual

abridged life tables, which have a final

age group of 85 years and over, were

used; for 1996–2002, the annual

complete life tables, which have a final

age group of 100 years and over, were

used (2–18). Beginning with the 1996

mortality data, NCHS began

constructing complete annual life tables

using new methodology to produce the

estimates for the population under 85

years of age and also new methodology

developed to extend the oldest age

interval to 100 years of age and

over (12). For this project, the oldest age

group in the 1986–1995 abridged life

tables was extended from 85 years of

age and over to 100 years of age and

over by employing the new

methodology used to extend the oldest

age group in the 1996–2002 complete

life tables (12). Estimates of the

proportion dying through age 100 were

needed to compute survival probabilities

for participants 85 years of age and

over. Race-specific (white and black)

and sex-specific life tables are available

for all years.

Methods

Analytic Sample

The analyses were restricted to

NHIS participants who were 18 years of

age and over at the time of interview

and who were eligible for mortality

follow-up. Eligibility status is

determined by the availability of key

identification information that is

required for matching to the NDI (1).

The sample was further restricted to

white and black NHIS participants who

had a nonzero NHIS sample weight. In

NHIS, zero weights were assigned to

any household member who was in the

military. Persons of other races were

omitted from the analyses because of

small numbers.

Mortality Ascertainment

All-cause mortality in the

restricted-use NHIS Linked Mortality

Files was examined. For participants

who were identified as dying by

December 31, 2002, length of follow-up

was calculated as the time from their

NHIS interview until death; respondents

who were not identified as dying by the

end of the follow-up period were

assumed to be alive, and length of

follow-up was calculated as time from

their NHIS interview to December 31,

2002. Duration of follow-up was

calculated using complete information

on the month, day, and year of the

NHIS interview and the month, day, and

year of death (or December 31, 2002,

for respondents assumed alive).

Statistical Methods

To assess how well mortality was

ascertained in the 1986–2000 NHIS

Linked Mortality Files, the survival of

each annual NHIS cohort was compared

with that of the U.S. population during

the same period. For example, the

mortality experience of the 1987 NHIS

cohort through 2002 was compared with

that of the U.S. population during

1987–2002.

NHIS survival probabilities—Using

the Kaplan-Meier product limit method,

cumulative survival probabilities and

standard errors were calculated for each

annual NHIS cohort by sex and race

(white and black) for the following age

groups: 18–24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–54,

55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79,

80–84, and 85 years and over, resulting

in 44 age-race-sex groups. The

Kaplan-Meier calculations were made

using the SUDAAN KAPMEIER
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 3

procedure to take into account the sample

weights and the complex survey design of

NHIS (19). NHIS eligibility-adjusted

sample weights were used (20). These

weights have been adjusted to account for

NHIS adults who were not included in the

mortality follow-up because of insufficient

identification data. For additional

information about the eligibility-adjusted

sample weights, see the report ‘‘Guide to

weighting and variance estimation in the

1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality

Files’’ (20).

U.S. survival probabilities—

Survival probabilities were derived from

the U.S. life tables for each of the 44

age-race-sex groups using the midpoint

of each age group. For example, for

comparison with the Kaplan-Meier

survival estimates for NHIS participants

aged 55–59 years at the NHIS interview,

survival probabilities for persons aged

57 years were derived from the annual

U.S. life tables. For the oldest age

group, 85 years and over, the

comparison involved the Kaplan-Meier

estimates for the NHIS participants in

this age group and the survival

probabilities for persons aged 87 years

from the U.S. life tables. Generally, 87

years was the median age for the NHIS

participants in the oldest age group.

For each age-race-sex group,

information for each year in the

follow-up period was obtained from the

corresponding U.S. life tables and used

to calculate the cumulative survival

probabilities. For example, for

comparison with the 1987 NHIS cohort

survival, the cumulative survival

probabilities for the U.S. population

were calculated using the probability of

surviving the first year of follow-up

derived from the 1987 U.S. life table,

the probability of surviving the second

year of follow-up derived from the 1988

U.S. life table, the probability of

surviving the third year of follow-up

derived from the 1989 U.S. life table,

and so forth across the follow-up period

(1987–2002). Note that the survival

probabilities derived from the successive

life tables reflect aging; that is, if the

survival probability for a person aged 57

years is derived from the 1987 life table,

then the survival probability for a

person aged 58 years is derived from

the 1988 life table (and so forth). The

survival probabilities for the U.S.

population were calculated from

successive life tables rather than from

just the initial (survey year) life table to

take into account the decrease in U.S.

death rates that occurred over the

follow-up period.

Cumulative survival probability, nP0

(the expected proportion surviving n

years), is computed using information

from the successive life tables according

to formula 1:

n–1
 

1. nP0 = ∏ [1 –1qa+i,s+i],
 i = 0 
 

where

n = number of years of follow-up

= probability that persons in a 1qx,y

given race-sex group alive at

age x will die within 1 year

according to the U.S. life tables

for year y

a = midpoint of age group for age

at baseline in the NHIS survey

year

s = NHIS survey year (1986, 1987,

..., or 2000).

For each age-race-sex group of each

NHIS cohort and for the U.S.

population, survival probabilities were

calculated at various lengths of

follow-up. Graphs of survival curves are

presented for selected age-race-sex

groups of the 1987, 1992, and 1997

NHIS cohorts and the corresponding

U.S. population.

Identifying significant differences—

Assessment of the statistical significance

of the differences between the NHIS

and U.S. survival probabilities is

complicated by the large number of

comparisons being made. For each

NHIS cohort, comparisons are made for

each of the 44 age-race-sex groups and

for one or more different lengths of

follow-up. Using the Bonferroni

procedure or one of the other multiple

comparisons procedures to adjust the

α-level of the significance tests seemed

too conservative. Instead of using a

multiple comparisons procedure,

significance was assessed using an

α-level of 0.01 rather than the usual

α-level of 0.05, thus employing a more

conservative test. Therefore, in

Tables 5–19, a Kaplan-Meier survival

probability computed for an age-racesex group of an annual NHIS cohort is

considered to be statistically

significantly different from the

corresponding survival probability

computed from U.S. life tables if the

99% confidence interval around the

Kaplan-Meier estimate does not include

the life table survival probability. Yet,

even with an α-level of 0.01, too many

differences may have been identified as

statistically significant, particularly in

the larger age-race-sex groups.

Results

For each NHIS cohort, the analytic

sample includes white and black

participants who were 18 years of age

and over at the time of their NHIS

interview and who were eligible for

mortality follow-up. Table 1 presents the

analytic sample for each NHIS cohort

and the number who are assumed to be

deceased as well as the number of those

ineligible for mortality follow-up. Note

that the sample sizes of the 1986 and

1996 NHIS cohorts are smaller than

other survey years and that the number

of ineligible respondents increases

beginning with the 1997 NHIS.

The age distribution (unweighted

counts and weighted percentages) of the

eligible adults in each NHIS cohort is

shown in Tables 2 and 3. The sample

size of the age groups varies

considerably. Between 55% and 60% of

the eligible adults are aged 25–54 years.

The percentage of each cohort that is in

the oldest age groups is small, only 1%

to 2% for those aged 80–84 years or 85

years and over. The number of

decedents in each age group of each

NHIS cohort is shown in Table 4. As

expected, the percentage of each age

group that was deceased at the end of

follow-up (December 31, 2002)

increases with age and with length of

the follow-up. However, for the earlier

NHIS cohorts, 10% or more of the

participants aged 85 years and over at

the time of the baseline interview were

assumed to be alive at the end of

follow-up, at which time they would be

very old (aged 95 years and over).

Cumulative survival probabilities

and their associated standard errors for
Proportion surviving

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

White males,

U.S. population

White males,

NHIS cohort

White females,

U.S. population

White females,

NHIS cohort

1514131211109876543210

Length of follow-up

Proportion surviving

Length of follow-up

Black males,

U.S. population

Black males,

NHIS cohort

Black females,

U.S. population

Black females,

NHIS cohort

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1514131211109876543210

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Figure 1. Survival curves for adults aged 55–59 years, by race and sex: 1987 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and U.S. population

Page 4 [ Series 2, No. 147
Proportion surviving

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Proportion surviving

Length of follow-up

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1514131211109876543210

White males,

U.S. population

White males,

NHIS cohort

White females,

U.S. population

White females,

NHIS cohort

Length of follow-up

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1514131211109876543210

Black males,

U.S. population

Black males,

NHIS cohort

Black females,

U.S. population

Black females,

NHIS cohort

Figure 2. Survival curves for adults aged 65–69 years, by race and sex: 1987 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and U.S. population

Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 5
Proportion surviving Proportion surviving

Length of follow-up

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1514131211109876543210

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1514131211109876543210

Length of follow-up

White males,

U.S. population

White males,

NHIS cohort

White females,

U.S. population

White females,

NHIS cohort

Black males,

U.S. population

Black males,

NHIS cohort

Black females,

U.S. population

Black females,

NHIS cohort

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Figure 3. Survival curves for adults aged 75–79 years, by race and sex: 1987 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and U.S. population

Page 6 [ Series 2, No. 147
0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

109876543210

Proportion surviving

Length of follow-up

Proportion surviving

Length of follow-up

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

109876543210

White males,

U.S. population

White males,

NHIS cohort

White females,

U.S. population

White females,

NHIS cohort

Black males,

U.S. population

Black males,

NHIS cohort

Black females,

U.S. population

Black females,

NHIS cohort

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Figure 4. Survival curves for adults aged 55–59 years, by race and sex: 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and U.S. population

Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 7
0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

109876543210

Proportion surviving

Length of follow-up

Length of follow-up

Proportion surviving

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

109876543210

White males,

U.S. population

White males,

NHIS cohort

White females,

U.S. population

White females,

NHIS cohort

Black males,

U.S. population

Black males,

NHIS cohort

Black females,

U.S. population

Black females,

NHIS cohort

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Figure 5. Survival curves for adults aged 65–69 years, by race and sex: 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and U.S. population

Page 8 [ Series 2, No. 147
Proportion surviving

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

109876543210 1514131211

Length of follow-up

Proportion surviving

0

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

109876543210 1514131211

Length of follow-up

White males,

U.S. population

White males,

NHIS cohort

White females,

U.S. population

White females,

NHIS cohort

Black males,

U.S. population

Black males,

NHIS cohort

Black females,

U.S. population

Black females,

NHIS cohort

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

Figure 6. Survival curves for adults aged 75–79 years, by race and sex: 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort and U.S. population

Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 9
Page 10 [ Series 2, No. 147 Proportion surviving 

0 

0.25 

0.50 

0.75 

1.00 

543210 

Length of follow-up 

Proportion surviving 

Length of follow-up 

0 

0.25 

0.50 

0.75 

1.00 

543210 

White males, 

U.S. population 

White males, 

NHIS cohort 

White females, 

U.S. population 

White females, 

NHIS cohort 

Black males, 

U.S. population 

Black males, 

NHIS cohort 

Black females, 

U.S. population 

Black females, 

NHIS cohort 

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). 

Figure 7. Survival curves for adults aged 55–59 years, by race and sex: 1997 NHIS Linked

Mortality File cohort and U.S. population

each age-race-sex group of each NHIS

cohort (1986–2000) and for the U.S.

population are presented in Tables 5–19.

Graphs of the survival probabilities of

selected age groups for the 1987, 1992,

and 1997 cohorts are presented in

Figures 1–9. In general, the survival of

each age-race-sex group of the NHIS

cohorts corresponds quite closely to that

expected on the basis of the U.S. life

table survival probabilities, with the

survival probabilities for the NHIS

cohorts usually somewhat higher than the

corresponding survival probabilities for

the U.S. population. This latter finding

was expected because the NHIS sample

includes only noninstitutionalized persons.

For white males and females, 60% to

80% of the differences between the

NHIS and U.S. survival probabilities

were smaller than 0.01; for black males

and females, 22% to 61% of the

differences were less than 0.01

(Table 20). Very few or none of the

differences between the NHIS and U.S.

survival probabilities were as large as

0.1 for white males and females; 3% to

11% of the differences for black males

and females were 0.1 or larger.

Most of the differences observed

between the NHIS and U.S. survival

probabilities were not statistically

significant (Table 20). For example, only

6.6% of the differences computed for

white males in the 1988–1992 NHIS

cohorts were statistically significant. The

differences observed for the 1986–1987

cohorts and for the 1988–1992 cohorts

were more likely to be statistically

significant than those for the 1993–1997

and 1998–2000 cohorts. Within each

NHIS cohort group (1986–1987,

1988–1992, 1993–1997, and 1998–

2000), the differences between the NHIS

and U.S. survival probabilities observed

for white females were more likely to

be statistically significant than those for

the other race-sex groups. For example,

for the 1988–1992 cohorts, 24.8% of the

differences observed for white females

were statistically significant compared

with those for black males (5.4%), black

females (6.0%), and white males (6.6%).

Additionally, for white females,

differences of 0.05 to less than 0.1

generally were statistically significant,

whereas for black males and females,
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 11

Proportion surviving 

0 

0.25 

0.50 

0.75 

1.00 

543210 

Length of follow-up 

Proportion surviving 

0 

0.25 

0.50 

0.75 

1.00 

543210 

Length of follow-up 

White males, 

U.S. population 

White males, 

NHIS cohort 

White females, 

U.S. population 

White females, 

NHIS cohort 

Black males, 

U.S. population 

Black males, 

NHIS cohort 

Black females, 

U.S. population 

Black females, 

NHIS cohort 

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). 

Figure 8. Survival curves for adults aged 65–69 years, by race and sex: 1997 NHIS Linked

Mortality File cohort and U.S. population

differences of this size generally were

not statistically significant. For example,

10.3% of the differences for white

females in the 1988–1992 cohorts were

0.05 to less than 0.1 in size, and all

were statistically significant; 12.7% of

the differences for black males in these

cohorts were this size, and none were

statistically significant. Because of the

small sample sizes of some age-race-sex

groups (e.g., black males and females

and persons aged 85 years and over),

some differences between the NHIS and

U.S. survival probabilities that appear to

be fairly large may not be statistically

significant. For example, for both black

males and black females in the

1986–1987 cohorts, 8.0% of the

differences are 0.1 or greater and are not

statistically significant, whereas for

white females, all of the differences of

that size are statistically significant.

Tables 20–23 summarize the results of

the NHIS-U.S. survival probability

comparisons with regard to statistically

significant differences. The number of

times U.S. survival probabilities were

not included in the 99% confidence

interval around the NHIS survival

probability increased with length of

follow-up (Table 21), occurred more

often for white females than for the

other race-sex groups (Table 22), and

occurred more often in the oldest age

groups (persons aged 80 years and over

at the NHIS interview) (Tables 22 and

23). Note that these two age groups

comprise only about 3% to 4% of the

annual NHIS cohorts (Table 3).

Discussion

This report presents comparisons of

the mortality experience of the

1986–2000 NHIS cohorts, which was

ascertained through record linkage to

death certificates, with the mortality

experience of the U.S. population

obtained from vital statistics. In general,

the cumulative survival probabilities of

the age-race-sex groups of each NHIS

cohort closely resembled those for the

U.S. population. The NHIS survival

probabilities tended to be slightly higher

than the corresponding U.S. survival
Page 12 [ Series 2, No. 147

0 

0.25 

0.50 

0.75 

1.00 

543210 

Length of follow-up 

White males, 

U.S. population 

White males, 

NHIS cohort 

White females, 

U.S. population 

White females, 

NHIS cohort 

Length of follow-up 

0 

0.25 

0.50 

0.75 

1.00 

543210 

Black males, 

U.S. population 

Black males, 

NHIS cohort 

Black females, 

U.S. population 

Black females, 

NHIS cohort 

Proportion surviving Proportion surviving 

SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). 

Figure 9. Survival curves for adults aged 75–79 years, by race and sex: 1997 NHIS Linked

Mortality File cohort and U.S. population

probabilities, though usually not

statistically significantly higher.

Statistically significant differences

between the NHIS and U.S. survival

probabilities occurred more often for

white females than for the other

race-sex groups, occurred more often for

the oldest age groups, and increased in

frequency with length of follow-up.

Some of the observed differences

between the survival experience of the

NHIS cohorts and that of the U.S.

population were expected because of the

sample design of NHIS. For example,

NHIS samples the noninstitutionalized

U.S. population, whereas the U.S. life

tables reflect the mortality experience

of both noninstitutionalized and

institutionalized persons. Institutionalized

persons tend to have poorer survival

than noninstitutionalized persons, so the

survival curves for the NHIS cohorts

were expected to be higher than those

for the U.S. population, with this

difference being greatest for the older

age groups. The study findings generally

were consistent with these expectations.

The differences between the NHIS and

U.S. survival probabilities were also

expected to decrease as the length of

follow-up increased because of

increasing rates of institutionalization

within the NHIS cohorts. This

expectation was not borne out; rather,

differences between the NHIS and U.S.

survival probabilities among the older

age groups tended to increase as

length of follow-up increased.

Although most of the observed

differences were not statistically

significant, the number of statistically

significant differences did increase

with length of follow-up.

Another aspect of the NHIS survey

design that may impact the

comparability of the NHIS and U.S.

survival probabilities is the exclusion

from the linked mortality files of adults

with insufficient identifying information

to permit them to be linked to the NDI.

The exclusion of these participants

from the Linked Mortality Files

would primarily impact the survival

probabilities estimated for the

1997–2000 NHIS cohorts because the

percentage ineligible is substantially

higher for these cohorts than for earlier

cohorts. During 1986–1996, a relatively
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 13

small percentage of NHIS participants

was ineligible for mortality follow-up;

the unweighted percentage that was

ineligible ranged from 1.5% to 3.0% per

year. However, starting in 1997, changes

in the design and administration of the

NHIS questionnaire resulted in the

percentage ineligible for mortality

follow-up increasing to approximately

10%. Those ineligible for linkage tend

to be younger, female, and have higher

levels of education and income, and

they therefore have lower mortality than

those who were eligible. Clearly,

ignoring the ineligible participants,

particularly for the 1997–2000 NHIS

cohorts, could bias estimates of the

survival probabilities downwards. The

eligibility-adjusted sample weights were

derived to mitigate the effect of

excluding the ineligible participants.

However, use of the adjusted sample

weights cannot entirely remove bias due

to exclusion of the ineligible adults

because the weights are adjusted only

for differences in age, race, and sex and

not for differences in other important

mortality predictors such as education

and income. NHIS survival probabilities

were found to be more likely to be

lower than the U.S. population survival

probabilities for the 1997–2000 cohorts

than for the 1986–1996 cohorts (though

usually not statistically significantly

lower). Because the NHIS survival

probabilities are expected to be higher

than the U.S. survival probabilities (as

discussed above), this may indicate that

the adjusted sample weights did not

entirely adjust for the exclusion of the

ineligible adults. However, the exclusion

of the larger percentage of ineligible

adults does not appear to cause any

significant bias in the survival

probabilities of the 1997–2000 cohorts

when length of follow-up ranges from 2

to 5 years; only a small number of the

differences were statistically significant.

As the follow-up period is extended

through additional NDI linkages, the

impact of the exclusion of the

ineligibles on the survival experience of

these cohorts can be assessed.

The passive nature of the follow-up

for the Linked Mortality Files may

introduce bias into the estimation of the

survival probabilities for the NHIS

cohorts because incorrect matches or

nonmatches can contribute to differences

between the NHIS and U.S. population

survival probabilities. Although the

matching methodology used to link

NHIS participants to NDI death records

correctly matches 98.6% of those

eligible for mortality follow-up, the

probability of correct matches is lower

for some age-race-sex groups than for

others. The effect of false matches

would be greatest in the oldest age

groups because of the small numbers in

these groups and their high death rates,

and the effect would tend to increase

with time. It is likely that there are

some false negative matches in the older

age groups, particularly in the earlier

cohorts where the length of follow-up is

longest and many survivors in the oldest

age groups were centenarians at the end

of the follow-up period (December 31,

2002). As the number of true survivors

shrinks in these oldest age groups, even

a small number of false negative

matches may have a noticeable

influence on the survival probabilities

for the group. Thus, the presence of

false negative matches in the NHIS

sample will result in overestimation of

survival. The observation that the NHIS

survival probabilities generally were

higher than the U.S. population survival

probabilities in the oldest age groups at

the end of follow-up and that the

difference between the NHIS and U.S.

probabilities tended to increase with

time rather than decrease lends support

to this possibility. However, the survival

probabilities in the U.S. life tables for

the late 1990s underestimate survival

among the U.S. population because the

denominators (1990-based postcensal

population estimates) used to calculate

the life table statistics were too low.

(The 2000 census showed that the

1990-based postcensal estimates for the

late 1990s were too low by about 2.5%

overall, but the percentage differed

among age, race, and sex groups.)

Revision of the life table values for the

late 1990s using intercensal population

estimates would result in higher survival

probabilities for the U.S. population

and, thus, may narrow the differences

observed in this analysis.

Because of the much smaller

number of black participants in the

NHIS cohorts, their survival

probabilities were less stable than those

for the white participants, as indicated

by the size of the standard errors for the

Kaplan-Meier estimates. Differences in

the quality of the race data in the

denominator data used to calculate the

U.S. life table values may also have

influenced the comparisons.

Additionally, it appears that the

1996–2002 U.S. life tables, which have

single-year of age survivorship estimates

through age 100 years, show

exceptionally high survival probabilities

for black males and females aged 85

years and over (21). The single-year

survival probabilities for black males

and females aged 85 through 100 years

that were computed for the 1986–1995

U.S. life tables also are exceptionally high

because they were derived using the same

methodology used to obtain the estimates

for the 1996–2002 life tables.

The 1986–2000 NHIS Linked

Mortality Files provide a unique

database for examining the associations

between demographic and health factors

and subsequent mortality in a large

heterogeneous sample that is

representative of the U.S. population.

This report presents comparisons of the

mortality experience of the NHIS

cohorts (between baseline and end of

follow-up on December 31, 2002) with

that of the U.S. population. In general,

the mortality experience of the NHIS

cohorts was quite similar to that of the

U.S. population. As expected, mortality

tended to be underestimated by the

NHIS cohorts, but this underestimation

generally was not statistically

significant. The preponderance of the

statistically significant differences

between the NHIS and U.S. survival

probabilities was observed for the 80–84

years and 85 years and over age groups.

Estimation of mortality among persons

aged 85 years and over has long been

problematic and appears to be so in

these data as well (12,22–24). However,

the mortality experience of adults under

80 years of age in the NHIS Linked

Mortality Files appears to be quite

similar to that of the U.S. population,

providing support that the ascertainment

of mortality through the probabilistic

record linkage accurately reflects the

mortality experience of the NHIS

cohorts.
Page 14 [ Series 2, No. 147

References
 

1.National Center for Health Statistics,

Office of Analysis and Epidemiology.

The 1986–2000 National Health

Interview Survey Linked Mortality

Files: Matching methodology.

Hyattsville, MD. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/

datalinkage/matching_methodology_

nhis_final.pdf. October 2005.

2.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital statistics of the United States,

1986, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Washington, DC: Public Health

Service. Available from: http://

www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life86_2acc.pdf. 1988.

3.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital Statistics of the United States,

1987, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Washington, DC: Public Health

Service. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life87_2acc.pdf. 1990.

4.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital Statistics of the United States,

1988, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Washington, DC: Public Health

Service. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life88_2acc.pdf. 1991.

5.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital Statistics of the United States,

1989, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Washington, DC: Public Health

Service. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life89_2acc.pdf. 1992.

6.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital Statistics of the United States,

1990, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Washington, DC: Public Health

Service. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life90_2acc.pdf. 1994.

7.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital Statistics of the United States,

1991, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Washington, DC: Public Health

Service. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life91_2acc.pdf. 1995.

8.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital Statistics of the United States,

1992, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Washington, DC: Public Health

Service. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life92_2.pdf. 1996.

9.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital Statistics of the United States,

1993, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Hyattsville, MD. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life93_2.pdf. 1997.

10.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital Statistics of the United States,

1994, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Hyattsville, MD. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life94_2.pdf. 1998.

11.National Center for Health Statistics.

Vital Statistics of the United States,

1995, life tables, vol II, section 6.

Hyattsville, MD. Available from:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/lifetables/

life95_2.pdf. 1998.

12.Anderson RN. Methodology for

constructing complete annual U.S. life

tables. National Center for Health

Statistics. Vital Health Stat 2(129).

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nchs/data/series/sr_02/sr02_129.pdf.

1999.

13.Anderson RN. United States life tables,

1997. National vital statistics reports;

vol 47 no 28. Hyattsville, MD:

National Center for Health Statistics.

Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/

nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr47/nvs47_28.pdf.

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14.Anderson RN. United States life tables,

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vol 48 no 18. Hyattsville, MD:

National Center for Health Statistics.

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nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr48/nvs48_18.pdf.

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15.Anderson RN, DeTurk PB. United

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Hyattsville, MD: National Center for

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nvsr50/nvsr50_06.pdf. 2002.

16.Arias E. United States life tables, 2000.

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nvsr51/nvsr51_03.pdf. 2002.

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National vital statistics reports; vol 52

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nvsr/nvsr52/nvsr52_14.pdf. 2004.

18.Arias E. United States life tables, 2002.

National vital statistics reports; vol 53

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http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/

nvsr53/nvsr53_06.pdf. 2004.

19.Shah BV, Barnwell BG, Bieler GS.

SUDAAN user’s manual: Software for

analysis of correlated data. Release

9.0.1. Research Triangle Park, NC:

Research Triangle Institute. 2006.

20.National Center for Health Statistics,

Office of Analysis and Epidemiology.

Guide to weighting and variance

estimation in the 1986–2000 NHIS

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http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/

datalinkage/nhis_ndi_variance_

guidelines_final.pdf. 2007.

21.Preston SH, Elo IT. Black mortality at

very old ages in official U.S. life

tables: A skeptical appraisal. Population

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crossovers: Reality or bad data? Popul

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old-age mortality in the United States:

New procedures for calculating

mortality schedules and life tables at

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Population Forum. 4:1–31. 1990.

24.Rosenwaike I, Hill ME. The accuracy

of age reporting among elderly African

Americans: Evidence of a birth

registration effect. Research on Aging.

18:310–24. 1996.
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 15

Table 1. Number of white and black sample participants aged 18 years and over, by eligibility status, NDI mortality status, race, and sex:

1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files

Analytic sample

Ineligible All participants Assumed deceased

and

insufficient White White Black Black White White Black Black

NHIS cohort data Total males females males females Total males females males females

19861 ......................... 795 42,548 17,091 19,070 2,651 3,736 8,350 3,572 3,469 635 674

1987 .......................... 1,515 84,210 33,657 38,106 5,135 7,312 15,539 6,566 6,495 1,205 1,273

1988 .......................... 1,473 84,229 33,857 38,096 5,010 7,266 14,449 6,115 6,114 1,083 1,137

1989 .......................... 1,448 80,577 32,600 36,688 4,650 6,639 12,718 5,363 5,369 939 1,047

1990 .......................... 1,262 82,427 33,287 37,443 4,805 6,892 11,843 5,071 5,012 852 908

1991 .......................... 1,528 81,782 33,213 37,185 4,650 6,734 10,800 4,680 4,549 766 805

19922 ......................... 1,819 81,882 33,422 37,189 4,573 6,698 10,020 4,353 4,214 673 780

1993 .......................... 1,631 74,417 30,449 33,790 4,144 6,034 7,974 3,417 3,383 585 589

1994 .......................... 2,144 77,996 31,874 35,544 4,310 6,268 7,729 3,296 3,294 513 626

1995 .......................... 1,700 68,090 28,028 31,431 3,611 5,020 5,594 2,550 2,302 370 372

19961 ......................... 1,330 42,279 17,368 19,123 2,428 3,360 2,926 1,249 1,227 221 229

1997 .......................... 5,358 63,128 25,510 28,599 3,771 5,248 3,875 1,678 1,623 261 313

1998 .......................... 6,712 58,096 23,913 26,219 3,356 4,608 2,870 1,271 1,169 193 237

1999 .......................... 6,638 56,856 23,296 25,622 3,358 4,580 2,078 954 794 171 159

2000 .......................... 6,781 58,121 23,632 25,953 3,601 4,935 1,440 664 566 100 110

1The 1986 and 1996 NHIS were fielded with a one-half sample.
 

2Some of the 1991 NHIS Hispanic participants are included on the 1992 NHIS file. For these analyses, all participants who were interviewed in 1991 are excluded from the 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality
 

File.
 

NOTES: NDI is National Death Index. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey.
 
HIS participants, by age at NHIS interview and NHIS cohort: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files

NHIS cohort

19861 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19922 1993 1994 1995 19961 1997 1998 1999 2000

.... 42,548 84,210 84,229 80,577 82,427 81,782 81,882 74,417 77,996 68,090 42,279 63,128 58,096 56,856 58,121

.... 6,435 11,956 11,380 10,810 10,647 10,294 10,323 9,104 9,266 8,458 5,140 7,262 6,673 6,778 7,053. . . . 9,800 19,254 19,163 18,204 18,968 18,266 17,824 16,017 16,054 14,201 8,929 12,707 11,324 10,651 10,835.... 8,154 16,535 16,730 16,488 17,087 17,150 17,476 16,137 17,036 15,254 9,550 14,184 12,854 12,603 12,732. . . . 5,578 11,428 11,754 11,469 11,696 12,008 12,303 11,697 12,564 11,199 7,178 11,031 10,557 10,350 10,871.... 2,834 5,395 5,114 4,970 4,919 4,887 4,872 4,364 4,688 3,959 2,459 3,873 3,678 3,774 3,882. . . . 2,781 5,477 5,391 4,816 4,950 4,897 4,689 4,127 4,438 3,610 2,173 3,243 3,043 3,098 3,122.... 2,359 4,874 5,036 4,624 4,721 4,625 4,637 4,242 4,319 3,567 2,117 3,256 3,013 2,735 2,717....

1,901 3,777 3,963 3,719 3,772 4,016 3,917 3,564 3,878 3,191 1,844 2,899 2,569 2,502 2,553

. . . . 1,371 2,760 2,884 2,785 2,780 2,767 2,773 2,484 2,741 2,214 1,403 2,265 2,106 2,126 2,079

. . . . 826 1,650 1,699 1,636 1,759 1,747 1,834 1,594 1,812 1,419 858 1,435 1,358 1,273 1,366 

. . . . 509 1,104 1,115 1,056 1,128 1,125 1,234 1,087 1,200 1,018 628 973 921 966 911


 

-half sample.

included on the 1992 NHIS file. For these analyses, all participants who were interviewed in 1991 are excluded from the 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

on of NHIS participants, by age at NHIS interview and NHIS cohort: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files

NHIS cohort

19861 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19922 1993 1994 1995 19961 1997 1998 1999 2000
 

 

....

........................................

.... 

100.0

15.423.918.713.1

6.56.35.54.43.11.91.2 

100.0

14.724.019.213.2

6.26.35.64.43.21.91.3 

100.0

14.423.819.513.5

6.06.35.64.53.21.91.3 

100.0

14.123.720.013.7

6.15.95.64.53.31.91.2

100.0

13.6

 23.4 20.5 13.9 5.9 5.9 5.6 4.5 3.2 2.0 1.3

100.0

13.323.021.114.2

5.9

 5.8 5.4 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.4

100.0

12.822.421.214.9

5.95.65.54.83.3

 2.2 1.5

100.0

12.721.921.515.4

5.95.55.54.73.32.21.4 

100.0

13.121.621.815.7

5.75.35.24.63.32.21.4 

100.0

12.921.122.116.2

5.75.35.24.73.32.11.5 

100.0

12.520.922.216.7

5.85.15.14.63.52.11.5 

100.0

12.619.922.317.1

6.05.15.04.53.62.31.6 

100.0

12.619.222.417.6

6.35.25.04.33.52.31.6 

100.0

12.718.622.317.9

6.55.34.74.43.72.31.7 

100.0

12.718.122.018.5

6.65.44.74.53.72.41.6


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 

-half sample.

included on the 1992 NHIS

Percentages may not sum to 
 

file. For these analyses,

100 due to rounding.

all participants who were interviewed in 1991 are excluded from the 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File.
 

Page 16 [ Series 2, No. 147
ercentage of decedents among sample participants, by age at NHIS interview and NHIS cohort: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files

NHIS cohort

19861 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 19922 1993 1994 1995 19961 1997 1998 1999 2000

Number

.... 8,350 15,539 14,449 12,718 11,843 10,800 10,020 7,974 7,729 5,594 2,926 3,875 2,870 2,078 1,440

........................................

....

130320541836773

1,0221,1881,2371,107

734

462

262569902

1,6151,227

1,8552,2622,3582,092

1,413

984

187507883

1,3411,054

1,5842,1092,261

2,115

1,405

1,003

178394791

1,183

917

1,3391,7771,9971,902

1,322

918

154426

711

1,070

793

1,2251,6281,7911,737

1,371

937

126346642

935

717

1,1071,4391,7231,570

1,260

935

131314551

865

625

915

1,3631,4971,532

1,230

997

84

200471

726

490

702

1,0691,1661,179

1,017

870

88

204397

666

455

649

935

1,2001,180

1,064

891

63

146360

505

340

456

646

807827

726

718

53

88

173

278

180

228

305

389453

379

400

55

121

235

330

235

270

407

542564

576

540

45

70

162

262

164

248

310

369409

424

407

25

66

118

196

118

154

211

274302

296

318

17

46

96

151

84

106

132

178222

191

217

Percent

........................................

....

2.03.36.6

15.027.336.750.465.180.788.9

90.8

2.23.05.5

14.122.733.946.462.475.885.6

89.1

1.62.65.3

11.4

20.629.441.957.173.382.7

90.0

1.62.24.8

10.3

18.527.838.453.768.380.8

86.9

1.42.24.2

9.1

16.124.734.547.562.577.9

83.1

1.21.93.7

7.8

14.722.631.142.956.772.1

83.1

1.31.83.2

7.0

12.819.529.438.255.267.1

80.8

0.91.22.9

6.2

11.2

17.025.232.747.563.8

80.0

0.91.32.3

5.3

9.7

14.621.630.943.058.7

74.3

0.71.02.4

4.5

8.6

12.618.125.337.451.2

70.5

1.01.01.8

3.9

7.3

10.514.421.132.344.2

63.7

0.81.01.7

3.0

6.1

8.3

12.518.724.940.1

55.5

0.70.61.3

2.5

4.5

8.1

10.314.419.431.2

44.2

0.40.60.9

1.9

3.1

5.0

7.7

11.0

14.223.3

32.9

0.20.40.8

1.4

2.2

3.4

4.97.0

10.7

140

23.8

-half sample.

included on the 1992 NHIS file. For these analyses, all participants who were interviewed in 1991 are excluded from the 1992 NHIS Linked Mortality File.

Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

Series 2, No. 147[ Page 17
bilities after 2, 5, 10, 15, and 16 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1986 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex,

2 years 5 years 10 years 15 years 16 years

U.S.

NHIS

cohort1

SE

(NHIS)1 U.S.

NHIS

cohort1

SE

(NHIS)1 U.S.

NHIS

cohort1

SE

(NHIS)1 U.S.

NHIS

cohort1

SE

(NHIS)1 U.S.

NHIS

cohort1

SE

(NHIS)1

........................................

....

0.9970.9970.9950.9870.9750.9600.9420.9090.8640.796

0.698

0.9970.9960.9950.9910.9790.9630.932

0.911

0.8520.870

0.724

0.0010.0010.0010.0020.0030.0060.010

0.011

0.0190.024

0.038

0.9920.9910.9850.9650.9310.8950.8460.7680.6650.522

0.359

0.9930.9930.9850.9670.9410.9000.8380.7690.6340.570

0.337

0.0010.0010.0030.0040.0070.0090.0150.0170.0280.037

0.039

0.9840.9780.9640.9150.8400.7640.6660.5290.3610.198

0.083

0.9870.9810.9670.9190.8400.7730.6620.5210.3490.269

0.121

0.0020.0020.0040.0060.0100.0130.0150.0210.0260.028

0.027

0.9760.9650.9360.8470.725

0.611

0.4700.2970.1450.050

0.011

0.9790.9660.9420.8520.7260.6060.4600.3220.1450.063

**0.088

0.0040.0030.0050.007

0.011

0.0150.0170.0180.0170.016

0.024

0.9750.9610.9290.831

0.700

0.5780.4320.257

0.116

0.036

0.007

0.9780.9630.9360.834

0.696

0.5840.4220.278

0.119

0.042

**0.083

0.0040.0030.0050.006

0.013

0.0140.0170.017

0.016

0.0140.023

........................................

....

0.9990.9990.9970.9930.9870.9780.9670.9490.9200.866

0.775

1.0000.9980.9980.9920.9810.9820.9670.9560.9420.903

0.812

0.0000.0010.0010.0020.0050.0030.0050.0070.0090.013

0.019

0.9980.9970.9930.9800.9620.9410.9100.8610.8120.652

0.475

0.9970.9970.9910.9800.9530.9460.8970.8710.8070.695

0.551

0.0010.0010.0010.0040.0080.0060.0080.0100.0130.021

0.030

0.9950.9920.9810.9500.9070.8590.7880.6840.5440.326

0.152

0.9940.9910.9800.9470.9030.8700.7760.6820.571

**0.411

**0.246

0.0010.0020.0020.0060.0100.0120.0100.0160.018

0.021

0.022

0.9910.9840.9640.9060.8300.7450.6250.4550.272

0.106

0.027

0.9890.9820.9630.9030.8280.7520.6350.4670.300

**0.195

**0.107

0.0020.0020.0030.0070.0100.0140.0120.0200.017

0.020

0.015

0.9900.9820.9600.895

0.811

0.7180.5890.4080.228

0.080

0.018

0.9880.9790.9570.891

0.804

0.7200.6020.4380.266

**0.168

**0.104

0.0020.0020.0030.008

0.012

0.0140.0120.0200.017

0.018

0.015

........................................

....

0.9950.9920.9850.9730.9590.9390.9200.8870.8470.773

0.690

0.9990.9950.9900.9810.9610.9470.8790.9410.8470.913

0.772

0.0010.0030.0050.0080.0200.0200.0280.0220.0420.044

0.123

0.9850.9770.9600.9270.8880.8420.7910.7200.6270.489

0.369

0.9930.9900.9690.9530.9190.8590.8060.8470.6070.549

0.671

0.0050.0040.0090.0130.0290.0340.0320.0450.0780.107

0.120

0.9660.9460.9090.8350.7540.6650.5670.4620.3190.190

0.105

0.9820.9630.9260.8800.8080.5910.5420.4770.3350.172

0.177

0.0060.012

0.011

0.0170.0420.0380.0470.0640.0760.072

0.117

0.9500.918

0.851

0.7270.6170.4880.3730.2460.1410.059

0.023

0.9650.942

0.862

**0.837

0.6860.4510.3930.3540.1680.108

0.124

0.0070.015

0.017

0.020

0.0410.0410.0570.0520.0600.056

0.112

0.947

0.911

0.839

0.7060.5860.4540.3370.212

0.115

0.045

0.016

0.959

0.9400.851

**0.808

0.6560.4280.3520.283

0.134

0.051

0.124

0.009

0.0160.017

0.016

0.0410.0380.0530.051

0.057

0.036

0.112

Page 18[ Series 2, No. 147
bilities after 2, 5, 10, 15, and 16 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1986 NHIS Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex,

2 years 5 years 10 years 15 years 16 years

NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE

U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1

.... 0.998 0.996 0.002 0.995 0.996 0.002 0.988 0.988 0.004 0.980 0.981 0.005 0.978 0.981 0.005.... 0.997 0.995 0.002 0.991 0.988 0.002 0.977 0.979 0.003 0.960 0.972 0.005 0.956 0.970 0.005.... 0.994 0.996 0.003 0.982 0.977 0.006 0.957 0.946 0.010 0.921 0.905 0.014 0.913 0.899 0.016.... 0.986 0.990 0.004 0.962 0.968 0.009 0.909 0.916 0.014 0.841 0.866 0.017 0.826 0.850 0.018.... 0.977 0.968 0.011 0.934 0.919 0.021 0.850 0.811 0.026 0.747 0.683 0.033 0.725 0.654 0.032.... 0.963 0.968 0.012 0.902 0.935 0.016 0.784 0.820 0.023 0.639 0.681 0.031 0.610 0.671 0.032.... 0.952 0.946 0.019 0.870 0.839 0.032 0.716 0.671 0.042 0.538 0.532 0.045 0.504 0.492 0.045.... 0.929 0.974 0.012 0.818 0.895 0.028 0.625 0.709 0.045 0.395 0.514 0.051 0.354 0.469 0.045.... 0.901 0.953 0.025 0.742 0.769 0.044 0.470 0.501 0.054 0.234 0.252 0.046 0.199 0.233 0.045.... 0.837 0.912 0.039 0.601 0.606 0.073 0.298 0.427 0.058 0.106 **0.260 0.061 0.084 0.217 0.069

.... 0.749 0.775 0.061 0.453 0.596 0.084 0.161 0.329 0.090 0.037 0.085 0.043 0.027 0.085 0.043

e the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.
 

ors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the survey design were incorporated.
 

ew. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population. SE is standard error.
 

Series 2, No. 147[ Page 19
Page 20 [ Series 2, No. 147

Table 6. Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 15 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1987 NHIS Linked

Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age

2 years 5 years 10 years 15 years

NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE

Race, sex, and age U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1

White males

18–24 years ..................... 0.997 0.997 0.001 0.992 0.993 0.001 0.985 0.986 0.002 0.977 0.976 0.002

25–34 years ..................... 0.997 0.997 0.001 0.991 0.992 0.001 0.978 0.982 0.002 0.965 **0.971 0.002

35–44 years ..................... 0.995 0.996 0.001 0.985 0.989 0.001 0.964 **0.972 0.002 0.936 **0.945 0.003

45–54 years ..................... 0.988 0.988 0.002 0.966 0.966 0.002 0.917 0.914 0.004 0.850 0.856 0.005

55–59 years ..................... 0.975 0.977 0.004 0.932 0.929 0.006 0.842 0.843 0.009 0.731 0.740 0.010

60–64 years ..................... 0.961 0.966 0.004 0.896 0.902 0.007 0.766 0.766 0.009 0.614 0.607 0.011

65–69 years ..................... 0.943 0.938 0.006 0.848 0.847 0.009 0.670 0.671 0.011 0.475 0.494 0.011

70–74 years ..................... 0.911 0.910 0.008 0.773 0.772 0.012 0.535 0.529 0.014 0.303 0.311 0.012

75–79 years ..................... 0.866 0.867 0.012 0.671 0.670 0.016 0.367 0.394 0.017 0.149 0.180 0.013

80–84 years ..................... 0.796 0.818 0.016 0.528 0.580 0.021 0.203 **0.252 0.019 0.052 **0.103 0.015

85 years and over ................. 0.696 0.735 0.025 0.365 0.442 0.030 0.085 0.126 0.020 0.012 **0.058 0.013

White females

18–24 years ..................... 0.999 0.998 0.001 0.998 0.997 0.001 0.995 0.995 0.001 0.991 0.991 0.002

25–34 years ..................... 0.999 0.999 0.000 0.997 0.996 0.001 0.991 0.990 0.001 0.984 **0.980 0.002

35–44 years ..................... 0.997 0.997 0.001 0.993 0.994 0.001 0.982 0.985 0.001 0.964 0.967 0.002

45–54 years ..................... 0.993 0.992 0.001 0.980 0.978 0.002 0.951 0.944 0.004 0.907 0.901 0.005

55–59 years ..................... 0.986 0.987 0.002 0.962 0.962 0.004 0.907 0.910 0.007 0.831 0.840 0.009

60–64 years ..................... 0.978 0.982 0.003 0.941 0.941 0.005 0.859 0.865 0.007 0.746 0.749 0.009

65–69 years ..................... 0.968 0.975 0.003 0.911 0.922 0.005 0.790 0.806 0.009 0.626 0.638 0.011

70–74 years ..................... 0.949 0.953 0.005 0.863 0.875 0.007 0.685 0.684 0.010 0.456 0.451 0.011

75–79 years ..................... 0.920 0.935 0.007 0.788 **0.817 0.010 0.527 **0.568 0.012 0.266 **0.321 0.012

80–84 years ..................... 0.865 0.894 0.010 0.658 **0.720 0.016 0.328 **0.418 0.018 0.108 **0.186 0.013

85 years and over ................. 0.772 **0.819 0.015 0.483 **0.572 0.021 0.154 **0.233 0.016 0.028 **0.136 0.013

Black males

18–24 years ..................... 0.995 0.991 0.003 0.984 0.981 0.005 0.966 0.960 0.006 0.951 0.941 0.009

25–34 years ..................... 0.992 0.994 0.002 0.977 0.983 0.004 0.947 0.960 0.006 0.921 **0.943 0.006

35–44 years ..................... 0.985 0.991 0.004 0.960 0.974 0.005 0.910 0.932 0.008 0.852 **0.883 0.010

45–54 years ..................... 0.971 0.961 0.008 0.925 0.917 0.011 0.835 0.848 0.015 0.730 0.741 0.019

55–59 years ..................... 0.960 0.975 0.010 0.887 0.903 0.018 0.756 0.780 0.033 0.619 0.665 0.037

60–64 years ..................... 0.940 0.927 0.016 0.842 0.854 0.023 0.669 0.710 0.030 0.494 0.545 0.033

65–69 years ..................... 0.920 0.933 0.016 0.789 0.790 0.033 0.571 0.566 0.043 0.375 0.355 0.038

70–74 years ..................... 0.889 0.916 0.022 0.722 0.736 0.046 0.465 0.528 0.044 0.250 0.315 0.033

75–79 years ..................... 0.846 0.906 0.026 0.630 0.593 0.041 0.324 0.249 0.043 0.136 0.099 0.026

80–84 years ..................... 0.772 0.802 0.055 0.494 0.596 0.071 0.195 0.274 0.063 0.060 0.129 0.044

85 years and over ................. 0.685 0.642 0.087 0.371 0.188 0.065 0.108 **0.013 0.014 0.024 0.013 0.014

Black females

18–24 years ..................... 0.998 0.999 0.001 0.995 0.991 0.005 0.988 0.981 0.005 0.980 0.970 0.006

25–34 years ..................... 0.997 0.995 0.002 0.991 0.992 0.002 0.977 0.977 0.003 0.960 0.962 0.005

35–44 years ..................... 0.993 0.994 0.002 0.982 0.983 0.004 0.957 0.959 0.006 0.923 0.922 0.007

45–54 years ..................... 0.986 0.984 0.005 0.962 0.961 0.006 0.910 0.908 0.010 0.843 0.828 0.014

55–59 years ..................... 0.977 0.976 0.008 0.934 0.942 0.012 0.852 0.879 0.015 0.751 **0.811 0.020

60–64 years ..................... 0.963 0.974 0.008 0.903 0.912 0.013 0.786 0.797 0.023 0.643 0.663 0.026

65–69 years ..................... 0.952 0.947 0.013 0.870 0.878 0.019 0.715 0.754 0.022 0.538 0.558 0.025

70–74 years ..................... 0.930 0.962 0.016 0.820 0.864 0.028 0.612 0.669 0.038 0.390 **0.473 0.029

75–79 years ..................... 0.901 0.935 0.016 0.747 0.820 0.033 0.474 0.592 0.045 0.238 0.317 0.040

80–84 years ..................... 0.835 0.865 0.035 0.613 0.689 0.041 0.305 0.371 0.043 0.110 0.176 0.034

85 years and over ................. 0.743 0.867 0.038 0.464 0.585 0.062 0.166 **0.308 0.058 0.039 **0.206 0.053

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.
 

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the
 

survey design were incorporated.
 

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.
 

SE is standard error.
 
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 21

Table 7. Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 14 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1988 NHIS Linked

Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age

2 years 5 years 10 years 14 years

NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE

Race, sex, and age U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1

White males

18–24 years ..................... 0.997 0.996 0.001 0.993 0.992 0.002 0.985 0.986 0.002 0.980 0.980 0.003

25–34 years ..................... 0.997 0.997 0.001 0.990 0.992 0.001 0.979 0.982 0.002 0.968 0.973 0.002

35–44 years ..................... 0.995 0.994 0.001 0.985 0.984 0.002 0.964 0.965 0.002 0.943 0.942 0.003

45–54 years ..................... 0.988 0.991 0.001 0.967 0.970 0.003 0.919 0.927 0.004 0.868 **0.883 0.005

55–59 years ..................... 0.976 0.982 0.003 0.934 0.932 0.006 0.845 0.846 0.009 0.759 0.765 0.010

60–64 years ..................... 0.962 0.966 0.004 0.898 0.908 0.007 0.769 0.776 0.012 0.650 0.678 0.012

65–69 years ..................... 0.944 0.945 0.005 0.850 0.854 0.008 0.674 0.688 0.010 0.521 0.532 0.011

70–74 years ..................... 0.913 0.911 0.008 0.778 0.772 0.013 0.540 0.536 0.014 0.351 0.355 0.014

75–79 years ..................... 0.869 0.895 0.010 0.677 0.703 0.016 0.373 0.408 0.017 0.188 0.215 0.016

80–84 years ..................... 0.799 0.810 0.016 0.534 0.592 0.022 0.207 **0.261 0.017 0.073 **0.142 0.016

85 years and over ................. 0.698 **0.783 0.025 0.370 **0.469 0.031 0.088 **0.139 0.020 0.019 **0.074 0.014

White females

18–24 years ..................... 0.999 1.000 0.000 0.998 0.997 0.001 0.995 0.994 0.001 0.992 0.991 0.001

25–34 years ..................... 0.999 0.998 0.000 0.997 0.996 0.001 0.991 0.992 0.001 0.986 0.984 0.001

35–44 years ..................... 0.997 0.997 0.001 0.993 0.994 0.001 0.982 0.981 0.002 0.969 0.966 0.002

45–54 years ..................... 0.993 0.995 0.001 0.981 0.981 0.002 0.952 0.951 0.003 0.918 0.919 0.004

55–59 years ..................... 0.987 0.989 0.002 0.962 0.968 0.004 0.908 0.915 0.006 0.849 0.860 0.007

60–64 years ..................... 0.979 0.978 0.003 0.942 0.941 0.005 0.860 0.856 0.007 0.773 0.768 0.008

65–69 years ..................... 0.968 0.966 0.004 0.912 0.908 0.006 0.791 0.796 0.009 0.665 0.677 0.010

70–74 years ..................... 0.950 0.954 0.005 0.865 0.868 0.008 0.686 0.698 0.010 0.505 0.525 0.012

75–79 years ..................... 0.921 0.931 0.007 0.791 **0.820 0.010 0.529 0.562 0.013 0.314 0.330 0.012

80–84 years ..................... 0.866 **0.901 0.010 0.664 **0.754 0.016 0.331 **0.406 0.017 0.142 **0.207 0.016

85 years and over ................. 0.774 **0.836 0.014 0.490 **0.552 0.021 0.156 **0.223 0.018 0.043 **0.116 0.014

Black males

18–24 years ..................... 0.994 0.997 0.002 0.984 0.993 0.002 0.967 0.982 0.004 0.956 **0.974 0.005

25–34 years ..................... 0.991 0.994 0.003 0.977 0.985 0.003 0.949 **0.967 0.005 0.929 0.950 0.007

35–44 years ..................... 0.985 0.991 0.003 0.960 0.963 0.007 0.910 0.924 0.010 0.867 0.889 0.012

45–54 years ..................... 0.975 0.989 0.004 0.931 0.956 0.008 0.841 0.880 0.013 0.760 **0.818 0.015

55–59 years ..................... 0.959 0.959 0.011 0.886 0.901 0.019 0.757 0.789 0.025 0.651 0.689 0.026

60–64 years ..................... 0.941 0.917 0.017 0.844 0.841 0.022 0.675 0.693 0.026 0.536 0.550 0.028

65–69 years ..................... 0.920 0.932 0.015 0.789 0.802 0.028 0.571 0.581 0.030 0.414 0.437 0.031

70–74 years ..................... 0.890 0.871 0.032 0.724 0.711 0.044 0.469 0.515 0.060 0.292 0.376 0.057

75–79 years ..................... 0.847 0.839 0.040 0.634 0.645 0.044 0.329 0.361 0.048 0.168 0.171 0.027

80–84 years ..................... 0.775 0.828 0.051 0.501 0.537 0.062 0.201 0.284 0.060 0.081 0.080 0.030

85 years and over ................. 0.690 0.783 0.066 0.380 0.509 0.085 0.113 0.139 0.058 0.034 0.105 0.059

Black females

18–24 years ..................... 0.998 0.995 0.003 0.995 0.989 0.004 0.989 0.984 0.004 0.982 0.979 0.005

25–34 years ..................... 0.997 0.998 0.001 0.991 0.991 0.002 0.977 0.982 0.003 0.964 0.968 0.004

35–44 years ..................... 0.993 0.989 0.003 0.982 0.982 0.004 0.957 0.967 0.005 0.931 **0.954 0.006

45–54 years ..................... 0.987 0.989 0.003 0.962 0.974 0.005 0.911 0.926 0.008 0.860 0.876 0.011

55–59 years ..................... 0.977 0.976 0.009 0.935 0.950 0.010 0.854 0.878 0.014 0.776 0.794 0.019

60–64 years ..................... 0.964 0.988 0.005 0.905 **0.945 0.011 0.788 **0.857 0.016 0.676 **0.757 0.020

65–69 years ..................... 0.951 0.960 0.010 0.870 0.899 0.016 0.714 0.767 0.023 0.574 0.622 0.030

70–74 years ..................... 0.930 0.936 0.015 0.822 0.809 0.027 0.619 0.683 0.030 0.439 0.503 0.032

75–79 years ..................... 0.899 0.943 0.014 0.751 0.817 0.029 0.477 0.522 0.037 0.281 **0.397 0.038

80–84 years ..................... 0.837 0.873 0.033 0.624 0.730 0.037 0.312 0.422 0.047 0.142 **0.250 0.036

85 years and over ................. 0.748 0.793 0.049 0.479 0.611 0.058 0.172 **0.324 0.052 0.055 **0.215 0.043

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.
 

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the
 

survey design were incorporated.
 

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.
 

SE is standard error.
 
Page 22 [ Series 2, No. 147

Table 8. Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 13 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1989 NHIS Linked

Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age

2 years 5 years 10 years 13 years

NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE

Race, sex, and age U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1

White males

18–24 years ..................... 0.997 0.999 0.001 0.993 0.994 0.001 0.986 0.986 0.002 0.982 0.983 0.002

25–34 years ..................... 0.996 0.995 0.001 0.990 0.991 0.001 0.979 0.981 0.002 0.972 0.974 0.002

35–44 years ..................... 0.995 0.993 0.001 0.985 0.983 0.002 0.964 0.967 0.002 0.949 0.953 0.003

45–54 years ..................... 0.988 0.992 0.001 0.967 0.973 0.002 0.920 **0.931 0.004 0.884 **0.900 0.005

55–59 years ..................... 0.977 0.982 0.003 0.935 0.943 0.005 0.847 **0.873 0.008 0.785 0.801 0.010

60–64 years ..................... 0.963 0.965 0.004 0.899 0.909 0.006 0.772 0.790 0.009 0.686 0.698 0.012

65–69 years ..................... 0.945 0.953 0.005 0.852 0.857 0.008 0.678 0.669 0.011 0.564 0.569 0.011

70–74 years ..................... 0.915 0.911 0.009 0.781 0.770 0.012 0.546 0.537 0.014 0.403 0.405 0.015

75–79 years ..................... 0.871 0.895 0.011 0.681 0.701 0.016 0.379 0.364 0.016 0.233 0.234 0.013

80–84 years ..................... 0.805 0.801 0.019 0.537 0.534 0.025 0.211 0.235 0.019 0.100 0.126 0.015

85 years and over ................. 0.708 0.722 0.026 0.375 0.433 0.029 0.091 0.125 0.019 0.031 **0.083 0.016

White females

18–24 years ..................... 0.999 **0.998 0.001 0.998 **0.996 0.001 0.995 **0.992 0.001 0.993 **0.990 0.001

25–34 years ..................... 0.999 0.999 0.000 0.997 0.997 0.001 0.991 0.992 0.001 0.987 0.988 0.001

35–44 years ..................... 0.998 0.997 0.001 0.993 0.992 0.001 0.982 **0.977 0.002 0.973 0.967 0.002

45–54 years ..................... 0.993 0.994 0.001 0.981 0.981 0.002 0.952 0.945 0.003 0.928 **0.918 0.004

55–59 years ..................... 0.987 0.989 0.002 0.963 0.965 0.004 0.908 0.911 0.006 0.866 0.872 0.008

60–64 years ..................... 0.979 0.980 0.003 0.942 0.936 0.006 0.861 0.853 0.008 0.799 0.786 0.010

65–69 years ..................... 0.969 0.967 0.004 0.912 0.907 0.007 0.792 0.790 0.009 0.700 0.699 0.011

70–74 years ..................... 0.951 **0.964 0.004 0.866 **0.888 0.007 0.686 0.704 0.011 0.553 0.570 0.012

75–79 years ..................... 0.922 **0.946 0.006 0.793 0.818 0.011 0.530 **0.569 0.013 0.366 **0.408 0.014

80–84 years ..................... 0.872 **0.914 0.010 0.668 **0.743 0.017 0.334 **0.398 0.017 0.183 **0.251 0.014

85 years and over ................. 0.784 **0.829 0.013 0.497 **0.571 0.020 0.160 **0.258 0.018 0.063 **0.159 0.015

Black males

18–24 years ..................... 0.994 0.995 0.003 0.984 0.988 0.004 0.968 0.979 0.005 0.960 0.969 0.006

25–34 years ..................... 0.991 0.992 0.003 0.976 0.983 0.004 0.951 0.965 0.006 0.937 0.950 0.008

35–44 years ..................... 0.985 0.989 0.004 0.960 0.972 0.005 0.911 0.921 0.011 0.879 0.899 0.014

45–54 years ..................... 0.973 0.969 0.008 0.929 0.941 0.010 0.841 0.878 0.015 0.783 0.826 0.018

55–59 years ..................... 0.957 0.972 0.009 0.885 0.916 0.017 0.757 0.759 0.029 0.678 0.690 0.030

60–64 years ..................... 0.940 0.936 0.017 0.845 0.862 0.022 0.682 0.697 0.032 0.579 0.595 0.035

65–69 years ..................... 0.918 0.924 0.024 0.788 0.747 0.037 0.573 0.613 0.038 0.451 0.485 0.041

70–74 years ..................... 0.887 0.896 0.028 0.722 0.712 0.038 0.471 0.386 0.039 0.336 0.270 0.036

75–79 years ..................... 0.849 0.866 0.035 0.637 0.675 0.055 0.333 0.437 0.054 0.205 0.307 0.051

80–84 years ..................... 0.784 0.771 0.057 0.505 0.552 0.064 0.204 0.290 0.053 0.106 0.192 0.049

85 years and over ................. 0.705 0.765 0.080 0.386 0.417 0.091 0.115 0.197 0.067 0.048 0.083 0.042

Black females

18–24 years ..................... 0.998 0.999 0.001 0.995 0.996 0.002 0.989 0.986 0.004 0.985 0.981 0.005

25–34 years ..................... 0.997 0.996 0.002 0.990 0.992 0.003 0.978 0.983 0.003 0.969 **0.980 0.003

35–44 years ..................... 0.994 0.991 0.003 0.982 0.979 0.005 0.957 0.956 0.007 0.939 0.933 0.007

45–54 years ..................... 0.987 0.993 0.003 0.963 0.964 0.007 0.912 0.927 0.010 0.875 0.893 0.012

55–59 years ..................... 0.977 0.977 0.009 0.936 0.943 0.012 0.855 0.835 0.018 0.797 0.771 0.021

60–64 years ..................... 0.964 0.972 0.008 0.906 0.901 0.017 0.792 0.818 0.022 0.711 0.769 0.024

65–69 years ..................... 0.951 **0.988 0.006 0.869 0.908 0.015 0.712 0.732 0.025 0.607 0.599 0.031

70–74 years ..................... 0.932 0.943 0.014 0.823 0.844 0.026 0.621 0.610 0.035 0.487 0.448 0.033

75–79 years ..................... 0.903 0.917 0.023 0.753 0.793 0.027 0.479 0.551 0.041 0.328 0.382 0.036

80–84 years ..................... 0.850 0.900 0.027 0.630 0.712 0.042 0.314 0.419 0.056 0.179 0.249 0.044

85 years and over ................. 0.770 0.736 0.057 0.490 0.504 0.055 0.176 0.214 0.038 0.078 0.113 0.029

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.
 

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the
 

survey design were incorporated.
 

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.
 

SE is standard error.
 
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 23

Table 9. Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 12 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1990 NHIS Linked

Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age

2 years 5 years 10 years 12 years

NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE

Race, sex, and age U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1

White males

18–24 years ..................... 0.997 0.998 0.001 0.993 0.995 0.001 0.986 0.988 0.002 0.984 0.985 0.002

25–34 years ..................... 0.996 0.996 0.001 0.990 0.990 0.001 0.980 0.982 0.002 0.975 0.976 0.002

35–44 years ..................... 0.995 0.996 0.001 0.985 0.988 0.001 0.964 0.968 0.002 0.954 0.959 0.002

45–54 years ..................... 0.988 0.991 0.001 0.967 0.971 0.002 0.921 0.927 0.004 0.898 0.903 0.004

55–59 years ..................... 0.975 0.978 0.003 0.934 0.937 0.006 0.848 0.864 0.008 0.809 0.817 0.009

60–64 years ..................... 0.963 0.962 0.004 0.900 0.896 0.007 0.776 0.761 0.010 0.720 0.708 0.011

65–69 years ..................... 0.945 0.951 0.005 0.853 0.866 0.008 0.678 0.698 0.012 0.604 0.618 0.012

70–74 years ..................... 0.916 0.930 0.007 0.784 0.800 0.011 0.550 0.566 0.014 0.455 0.478 0.014

75–79 years ..................... 0.874 0.896 0.009 0.685 0.719 0.015 0.383 0.402 0.017 0.282 0.311 0.016

80–84 years ..................... 0.808 0.826 0.017 0.540 0.580 0.021 0.215 0.246 0.017 0.134 0.163 0.016

85 years and over ................. 0.712 0.757 0.023 0.377 0.427 0.031 0.093 **0.160 0.025 0.046 **0.130 0.021

White females

18–24 years ..................... 0.999 0.998 0.001 0.998 0.997 0.001 0.995 0.994 0.001 0.994 0.993 0.001

25–34 years ..................... 0.999 0.998 0.000 0.996 0.997 0.001 0.991 0.990 0.001 0.989 0.987 0.001

35–44 years ..................... 0.998 0.997 0.001 0.993 **0.989 0.001 0.982 0.978 0.002 0.976 **0.970 0.002

45–54 years ..................... 0.993 0.994 0.001 0.981 0.981 0.002 0.953 0.953 0.003 0.938 0.936 0.003

55–59 years ..................... 0.987 0.987 0.002 0.963 0.963 0.004 0.909 0.913 0.006 0.882 0.886 0.007

60–64 years ..................... 0.979 0.976 0.004 0.942 0.943 0.006 0.862 0.865 0.008 0.821 0.829 0.009

65–69 years ..................... 0.969 0.968 0.004 0.913 0.910 0.006 0.792 0.787 0.009 0.732 0.724 0.010

70–74 years ..................... 0.951 0.960 0.005 0.866 0.876 0.008 0.687 0.699 0.010 0.600 0.611 0.011

75–79 years ..................... 0.924 **0.943 0.006 0.794 0.814 0.009 0.529 **0.564 0.012 0.419 **0.464 0.013

80–84 years ..................... 0.846 0.882 0.013 0.647 **0.700 0.016 0.325 **0.381 0.017 0.222 **0.284 0.016

85 years and over ................. 0.792 **0.839 0.013 0.500 **0.600 0.020 0.162 **0.248 0.018 0.089 **0.169 0.017

Black males

18–24 years ..................... 0.994 0.995 0.002 0.983 0.982 0.004 0.969 0.969 0.005 0.964 0.966 0.006

25–34 years ..................... 0.991 0.994 0.003 0.976 0.977 0.006 0.954 0.953 0.008 0.945 0.943 0.009

35–44 years ..................... 0.986 0.995 0.002 0.960 0.977 0.005 0.913 **0.939 0.008 0.893 **0.924 0.009

45–54 years ..................... 0.974 0.986 0.005 0.929 0.950 0.009 0.843 0.881 0.013 0.806 **0.864 0.014

55–59 years ..................... 0.956 0.974 0.009 0.885 0.924 0.014 0.758 0.757 0.023 0.706 0.718 0.026

60–64 years ..................... 0.939 0.963 0.012 0.846 0.874 0.021 0.688 0.739 0.031 0.620 0.662 0.031

65–69 years ..................... 0.916 0.943 0.017 0.787 0.829 0.027 0.574 0.649 0.030 0.493 **0.597 0.032

70–74 years ..................... 0.885 0.841 0.066 0.728 0.718 0.062 0.478 0.504 0.054 0.384 0.392 0.053

75–79 years ..................... 0.850 0.897 0.031 0.638 0.700 0.040 0.336 0.408 0.043 0.247 0.331 0.044

80–84 years ..................... 0.786 0.777 0.049 0.507 0.478 0.056 0.196 0.175 0.036 0.129 0.154 0.034

85 years and over ................. 0.709 0.691 0.093 0.389 0.414 0.095 0.118 **0.322 0.085 0.067 **0.295 0.082

Black females

18–24 years ..................... 0.998 0.998 0.001 0.995 **0.988 0.004 0.989 0.982 0.005 0.986 0.981 0.005

25–34 years ..................... 0.997 0.997 0.002 0.990 0.994 0.002 0.978 0.983 0.003 0.972 0.978 0.004

35–44 years ..................... 0.994 0.994 0.003 0.982 0.983 0.004 0.957 0.964 0.006 0.945 0.957 0.006

45–54 years ..................... 0.986 0.984 0.004 0.963 0.968 0.005 0.913 0.912 0.009 0.889 0.898 0.010

55–59 years ..................... 0.976 0.981 0.007 0.936 0.941 0.013 0.855 0.884 0.019 0.818 0.864 0.019

60–64 years ..................... 0.965 0.958 0.012 0.908 0.922 0.016 0.796 0.836 0.024 0.744 0.783 0.028

65–69 years ..................... 0.951 0.960 0.010 0.869 0.898 0.017 0.709 0.738 0.030 0.640 0.686 0.029

70–74 years ..................... 0.932 0.942 0.016 0.823 0.825 0.024 0.620 0.612 0.036 0.532 0.551 0.039

75–79 years ..................... 0.906 0.889 0.023 0.756 0.802 0.028 0.478 **0.620 0.035 0.377 0.469 0.038

80–84 years ..................... 0.857 0.901 0.025 0.636 0.664 0.043 0.316 0.369 0.037 0.222 0.303 0.039

85 years and over ................. 0.785 **0.931 0.028 0.499 **0.685 0.044 0.177 **0.410 0.055 0.106 **0.369 0.053

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.
 

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the
 

survey design were incorporated.
 

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.
 

SE is standard error.
 
Page 24 [ Series 2, No. 147

Table 10. Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, 10, and 11 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1991 NHIS

Linked Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age

2 years 5 years 10 years 11 years

NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE NHIS SE

Race, sex, and age U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1 U.S. cohort1 (NHIS)1

White males

18–24 years ..................... 0.997 0.998 0.001 0.993 0.994 0.001 0.987 0.989 0.002 0.986 0.988 0.002

25–34 years ..................... 0.996 0.997 0.001 0.989 0.991 0.001 0.980 0.979 0.002 0.977 0.977 0.002

35–44 years ..................... 0.994 0.996 0.001 0.984 0.985 0.002 0.964 0.964 0.002 0.959 0.959 0.002

45–54 years ..................... 0.989 0.991 0.001 0.967 0.970 0.002 0.922 **0.934 0.003 0.911 **0.923 0.004

55–59 years ..................... 0.980 0.977 0.003 0.939 0.944 0.006 0.855 0.851 0.009 0.836 0.834 0.009

60–64 years ..................... 0.964 0.965 0.004 0.902 0.902 0.007 0.779 0.776 0.010 0.752 0.750 0.010

65–69 years ..................... 0.945 0.954 0.006 0.854 0.865 0.008 0.682 0.682 0.010 0.646 0.646 0.010

70–74 years ..................... 0.918 0.935 0.006 0.787 0.792 0.010 0.556 0.557 0.015 0.510 0.511 0.015

75–79 years ..................... 0.877 0.889 0.010 0.690 0.711 0.014 0.387 0.424 0.018 0.335 0.358 0.017

80–84 years ..................... 0.812 0.802 0.016 0.543 0.579 0.021 0.219 **0.261 0.016 0.175 **0.225 0.016

85 years and over ................. 0.715 0.729 0.028 0.380 0.392 0.030 0.095 0.110 0.018 0.068 0.098 0.017

White females

18–24 years ..................... 0.999 0.999 0.000 0.998 0.998 0.001 0.995 0.995 0.001 0.995 0.995 0.001

25–34 years ..................... 0.999 0.999 0.000 0.996 0.995 0.001 0.991 0.992 0.001 0.990 0.991 0.001

35–44 years ..................... 0.998 0.998 0.001 0.993 0.991 0.001 0.982 **0.978 0.002 0.979 **0.974 0.002

45–54 years ..................... 0.993 0.992 0.001 0.981 0.979 0.002 0.953 0.953 0.003 0.946 0.946 0.003

55–59 years ..................... 0.987 0.982 0.003 0.963 0.958 0.004 0.909 0.913 0.006 0.896 0.896 0.007

60–64 years ..................... 0.980 0.988 0.002 0.943 0.948 0.005 0.863 0.853 0.008 0.843 0.828 0.009

65–69 years ..................... 0.969 0.971 0.004 0.913 0.912 0.006 0.792 0.791 0.009 0.764 0.759 0.010

70–74 years ..................... 0.952 0.961 0.004 0.866 0.883 0.008 0.687 0.695 0.013 0.647 0.665 0.013

75–79 years ..................... 0.925 0.935 0.008 0.794 0.806 0.011 0.528 0.545 0.013 0.474 0.496 0.013

80–84 years ..................... 0.877 **0.908 0.009 0.670 **0.718 0.014 0.335 **0.409 0.015 0.281 **0.351 0.015

85 years and over ................. 0.794 0.822 0.014 0.500 0.529 0.021 0.162 **0.226 0.017 0.123 **0.202 0.016

Black males

18–24 years ..................... 0.994 0.993 0.003 0.983 0.987 0.004 0.970 0.972 0.006 0.968 0.970 0.006

25–34 years ..................... 0.991 0.992 0.002 0.976 0.983 0.003 0.956 **0.971 0.005 0.952 **0.968 0.005

35–44 years ..................... 0.985 **0.996 0.002 0.959 **0.980 0.004 0.914 **0.949 0.007 0.904 **0.942 0.007

45–54 years ..................... 0.974 0.980 0.006 0.929 0.953 0.008 0.845 **0.890 0.012 0.827 **0.873 0.013

55–59 years ..................... 0.957 0.967 0.013 0.886 0.885 0.021 0.760 0.769 0.026 0.735 0.750 0.027

60–64 years ..................... 0.941 0.961 0.013 0.850 0.866 0.021 0.695 0.715 0.030 0.661 0.682 0.033

65–69 years ..................... 0.918 0.927 0.017 0.790 0.812 0.029 0.579 0.649 0.039 0.539 0.595 0.041

70–74 years ..................... 0.887 0.950 0.018 0.717 **0.834 0.029 0.472 0.567 0.039 0.426 0.511 0.041

75–79 years ..................... 0.854 0.835 0.038 0.641 0.706 0.046 0.342 0.469 0.056 0.295 0.442 0.057

80–84 years ..................... 0.789 0.836 0.059 0.509 0.592 0.072 0.225 0.295 0.065 0.183 0.212 0.062

85 years and over ................. 0.710 0.711 0.080 0.389 0.450 0.080 0.120 0.119 0.050 0.091 0.119 0.050

Black females

18–24 years ..................... 0.998 0.999 0.001 0.995 0.994 0.003 0.989 0.990 0.004 0.988 0.988 0.004

25–34 years ..................... 0.997 0.999 0.001 0.990 0.995 0.002 0.979 0.985 0.003 0.976 0.981 0.004

35–44 years ..................... 0.993 0.996 0.002 0.982 0.989 0.003 0.957 0.971 0.005 0.951 0.967 0.005

45–54 years ..................... 0.987 0.987 0.004 0.963 0.964 0.006 0.914 0.905 0.010 0.903 0.898 0.011

55–59 years ..................... 0.976 0.965 0.010 0.936 0.932 0.014 0.856 0.870 0.016 0.838 0.857 0.018

60–64 years ..................... 0.966 0.958 0.011 0.910 0.911 0.017 0.800 0.809 0.021 0.776 0.796 0.021

65–69 years ..................... 0.952 0.954 0.015 0.869 0.860 0.021 0.709 0.726 0.031 0.676 0.696 0.034

70–74 years ..................... 0.932 0.932 0.018 0.822 0.832 0.027 0.619 0.626 0.033 0.579 0.569 0.034

75–79 years ..................... 0.909 0.937 0.016 0.765 0.812 0.031 0.483 0.562 0.036 0.433 0.533 0.037

80–84 years ..................... 0.858 0.910 0.026 0.634 0.669 0.041 0.315 0.386 0.047 0.268 0.306 0.046

85 years and over ................. 0.785 0.801 0.048 0.495 0.504 0.064 0.176 0.330 0.065 0.139 **0.319 0.065

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.
 

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the
 

survey design were incorporated.
 

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.
 

SE is standard error.
 
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 25

Table 11.

Mortality

Cumulative

File cohort,

survival

by race,

probabilities

sex, and age

after 2, 5, and 10 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1992 NHIS Linked

2 years 5 years 10 years

Race, sex, and age U.S.

NHIS1 cohort

SE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS)

White males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

White females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

Black males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

Black females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

0.997

0.996

0.994

0.989

0.978

0.964

0.945

0.919

0.878

0.812

0.714

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.987

0.979

0.969

0.951

0.925

0.876

0.793

0.993

0.991

0.985

0.974

0.957

0.941

0.920

0.886

0.854

0.788

0.711

0.998

0.997

0.993

0.987

0.977

0.967

0.952

0.931

0.909

0.857

0.783

0.996

0.997

0.995

0.989

0.980

0.959

0.942

0.916

0.879

0.806

0.717

0.998

0.999

0.998

0.994

0.990

0.982

0.970

0.958

0.939

**0.911

**0.833

0.996

0.996

0.991

0.966

0.959

0.960

0.911

0.924

0.860

0.770

0.578

0.997

0.997

0.992

0.990

0.978

0.954

0.965

0.960

0.935

0.872

0.774

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.003

0.005

0.005

0.007

0.012

0.017

0.025

0.001

0.000

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.007

0.009

0.014

0.002

0.002

0.003

0.008

0.013

0.012

0.019

0.020

0.040

0.080

0.088

0.002

0.002

0.002

0.004

0.007

0.016

0.012

0.016

0.018

0.029

0.040

0.993

0.991

0.984

0.968

0.938

0.904

0.855

0.790

0.692

0.548

0.384

0.998

0.996

0.993

0.981

0.963

0.943

0.913

0.867

0.793

0.669

0.499

0.984

0.977

0.959

0.929

0.886

0.852

0.794

0.723

0.644

0.513

0.396

0.995

0.990

0.981

0.963

0.936

0.912

0.870

0.822

0.746

0.635

0.497

0.992

0.991

0.985

0.970

0.940

0.895

0.853

0.773

0.687

0.597

0.376

**0.995

0.995

0.993

0.982

0.968

0.950

0.917

0.885

0.813

**0.732

0.527

0.989

0.980

0.970

0.936

0.916

0.896

0.800

0.702

0.565

0.512

0.404

0.992

0.991

0.980

0.957

0.944

0.889

0.897

0.888

0.785

0.670

0.542

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.002

0.005

0.008

0.009

0.010

0.016

0.022

0.027

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.011

0.014

0.020

0.005

0.005

0.008

0.011

0.017

0.020

0.031

0.036

0.053

0.086

0.084

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.008

0.011

0.021

0.015

0.023

0.031

0.051

0.055

0.987

0.981

0.964

0.923

0.857

0.784

0.685

0.560

0.392

0.223

0.098

0.995

0.991

0.982

0.954

0.911

0.863

0.793

0.687

0.529

0.337

0.165

0.971

0.958

0.917

0.847

0.763

0.698

0.587

0.475

0.346

0.216

0.123

0.990

0.979

0.957

0.915

0.857

0.804

0.712

0.618

0.475

0.319

0.180

0.986

0.982

0.967

0.927

0.867

0.784

0.664

0.564

0.372

**0.287

**0.143

**0.992

0.990

0.979

0.954

0.908

0.868

0.783

0.707

0.543

**0.397

**0.221

0.982

0.960

0.942

0.878

0.808

0.718

0.653

0.428

0.321

0.304

0.127

0.986

0.982

0.961

0.894

0.876

0.775

0.734

0.693

0.515

0.405

**0.323

0.002
 

0.002
 

0.002
 

0.004
 

0.008
 

0.009
 

0.012
 

0.012
 

0.016
 

0.020
 

0.018
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.003
 

0.006
 

0.008
 

0.008
 

0.010
 

0.013
 

0.015
 

0.016
 

0.006
 

0.006
 

0.010
 

0.013
 

0.023
 

0.030
 

0.038
 

0.042
 

0.046
 

0.072
 

0.046
 

0.002
 

0.004
 

0.005
 

0.015
 

0.016
 

0.024
 

0.026
 

0.035
 

0.039
 

0.052
 

0.050
 

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the

survey design were incorporated.

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.

SE is standard error.
Page 26 [ Series 2, No. 147

Table 12.

Mortality

Cumulative

File cohort,

survival

by race,

probabilities

sex, and age

after 2, 5, and 9 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1993 NHIS Linked

2 years 5 years 9 years

Race, sex, and age U.S.

NHIS1 cohort

SE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS)

White males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

White females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

Black males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

Black females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

0.997

0.996

0.994

0.989

0.978

0.964

0.946

0.920

0.879

0.812

0.712

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.987

0.979

0.969

0.951

0.924

0.874

0.790

0.993

0.991

0.984

0.973

0.958

0.942

0.922

0.885

0.855

0.785

0.708

0.998

0.996

0.993

0.987

0.977

0.967

0.953

0.930

0.905

0.854

0.781

0.998

**0.998

0.995

0.991

0.976

0.966

0.950

0.927

0.887

0.864

0.735

0.999

0.998

0.998

0.993

0.988

0.981

0.969

0.958

0.937

0.902

0.806

0.997

0.996

0.984

0.980

0.971

0.952

0.910

0.904

0.919

0.838

0.703

0.999

0.998

0.998

0.986

0.977

0.964

0.968

0.952

0.946

0.858

0.830

0.001

0.000

0.001

0.001

0.003

0.005

0.005

0.008

0.011

0.017

0.023

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.001

0.003

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.007

0.011

0.016

0.002

0.002

0.005

0.008

0.010

0.014

0.024

0.025

0.029

0.060

0.096

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.005

0.008

0.012

0.011

0.013

0.020

0.039

0.051

0.993

0.991

0.984

0.968

0.940

0.905

0.857

0.792

0.695

0.551

0.388

0.998

0.996

0.993

0.981

0.964

0.943

0.913

0.867

0.792

0.668

0.498

0.984

0.978

0.961

0.930

0.888

0.854

0.800

0.724

0.648

0.518

0.401

0.995

0.991

0.982

0.963

0.937

0.914

0.871

0.820

0.753

0.635

0.500

0.994

0.994

0.987

0.972

0.937

0.918

0.863

0.799

0.699

0.591

0.401

0.998

0.996

0.993

0.978

0.959

0.935

0.918

0.883

0.801

**0.727

0.516

0.991

0.986

0.962

0.949

0.914

0.844

0.794

0.762

0.718

0.534

0.522

0.999

0.993

0.991

0.960

0.944

0.905

0.893

0.863

0.786

0.691

0.630

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.003

0.005

0.007

0.008

0.011

0.016

0.024

0.028

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.005

0.006

0.006

0.008

0.012

0.015

0.019

0.004

0.004

0.006

0.010

0.021

0.029

0.031

0.040

0.048

0.066

0.090

0.001

0.003

0.003

0.008

0.012

0.018

0.019

0.023

0.037

0.040

0.073

0.988

0.983

0.969

0.934

0.877

0.812

0.724

0.613

0.452

0.278

0.137

0.996

0.993

0.984

0.960

0.923

0.882

0.821

0.729

0.584

0.397

0.215

0.974

0.965

0.929

0.865

0.791

0.734

0.636

0.525

0.403

0.265

0.161

0.991

0.982

0.963

0.926

0.876

0.830

0.748

0.660

0.534

0.374

0.228

0.990

0.987

0.972

0.938

0.877

0.825

0.723

0.627

**0.494

0.290

0.164

0.995

0.991

0.982

0.956

0.922

0.870

0.821

**0.769

0.600

**0.458

0.239

0.982

0.980

0.927

0.899

0.838

0.693

0.580

0.504

0.378

0.213

0.387

0.995

0.983

**0.976

0.919

0.880

0.849

0.766

0.696

0.592

0.470

0.289

0.002
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.004
 

0.008
 

0.009
 

0.012
 

0.013
 

0.016
 

0.021
 

0.022
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.003
 

0.007
 

0.008
 

0.009
 

0.011
 

0.014
 

0.020
 

0.017
 

0.007
 

0.005
 

0.010
 

0.014
 

0.028
 

0.035
 

0.041
 

0.043
 

0.056
 

0.049
 

0.094
 

0.003
 

0.004
 

0.004
 

0.013
 

0.019
 

0.022
 

0.026
 

0.032
 

0.046
 

0.044
 

0.058
 

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the

survey design were incorporated.

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.

SE is standard error.
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 27

Table 13.

Mortality

Cumulative

File cohort,

survival

by race,

probabilities

sex, and age

after 2, 5, and 8 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1994 NHIS Linked

2 years 5 years 8 years

Race, sex, and age U.S.

NHIS1 cohort

SE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS)

White males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

White females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

Black males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

Black females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

0.997

0.996

0.994

0.989

0.979

0.965

0.947

0.921

0.882

0.815

0.716

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.987

0.980

0.969

0.952

0.924

0.875

0.790

0.994

0.991

0.985

0.973

0.959

0.941

0.925

0.885

0.858

0.787

0.711

0.998

0.996

0.993

0.987

0.977

0.967

0.954

0.929

0.907

0.853

0.779

0.998

0.997

0.995

0.989

0.978

0.971

0.947

0.925

0.890

0.830

0.728

0.998

0.998

0.997

0.994

0.989

0.978

0.970

0.949

0.932

**0.900

0.827

0.991

0.997

0.991

0.976

0.970

0.965

0.927

0.874

0.819

0.812

0.655

0.998

0.996

0.991

0.990

0.973

0.960

0.949

0.959

0.918

0.922

0.890

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.003

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.012

0.015

0.029

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.007

0.009

0.014

0.005

0.002

0.003

0.006

0.011

0.013

0.021

0.030

0.039

0.059

0.082

0.002

0.002

0.003

0.003

0.009

0.013

0.015

0.011

0.023

0.023

0.033

0.993

0.991

0.985

0.969

0.941

0.906

0.859

0.796

0.699

0.557

0.393

0.998

0.996

0.993

0.982

0.964

0.944

0.914

0.868

0.793

0.668

0.500

0.985

0.981

0.964

0.932

0.891

0.856

0.808

0.727

0.652

0.523

0.405

0.996

0.991

0.982

0.964

0.938

0.914

0.874

0.819

0.754

0.636

0.497

0.991

0.993

0.987

0.970

0.941

0.922

0.848

0.795

0.710

0.596

0.394

0.998

0.996

0.991

0.982

0.969

0.939

0.916

0.858

0.813

**0.714

0.554

0.987

0.988

0.972

0.936

0.908

0.892

0.816

0.754

0.648

0.554

0.440

0.996

0.992

0.982

0.964

0.935

0.888

0.862

0.834

0.734

0.731

0.595

0.002

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.005

0.007

0.010

0.010

0.015

0.021

0.030

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.008

0.011

0.014

0.021

0.005

0.003

0.006

0.010

0.023

0.026

0.026

0.040

0.052

0.073

0.078

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.006

0.012

0.019

0.023

0.023

0.038

0.054

0.057

0.990

0.986

0.974

0.945

0.897

0.840

0.763

0.662

0.515

0.342

0.186

0.996

0.994

0.987

0.967

0.935

0.899

0.847

0.767

0.639

0.461

0.274

0.978

0.970

0.941

0.885

0.820

0.766

0.686

0.573

0.465

0.323

0.210

0.993

0.985

0.969

0.937

0.894

0.852

0.785

0.699

0.591

0.435

0.283

0.987

0.988

0.978

0.947

0.896

0.843

0.750

0.669

0.514

0.344

0.228

0.996

**0.991

0.985

0.964

0.939

0.891

0.846

0.756

0.650

0.495

0.299

0.977

0.977

0.957

0.895

0.846

0.817

0.701

0.650

0.494

0.293

0.331

0.993

0.987

0.973

0.934

0.879

0.833

0.731

0.709

0.612

0.483

0.308

0.002
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.003
 

0.007
 

0.009
 

0.011
 

0.012
 

0.017
 

0.020
 

0.024
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.003
 

0.005
 

0.007
 

0.009
 

0.010
 

0.014
 

0.016
 

0.019
 

0.007
 

0.005
 

0.007
 

0.014
 

0.028
 

0.030
 

0.034
 

0.042
 

0.054
 

0.068
 

0.089
 

0.003
 

0.003
 

0.005
 

0.008
 

0.017
 

0.023
 

0.030
 

0.028
 

0.042
 

0.053
 

0.043
 

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the

survey design were incorporated.

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is the National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.

SE is standard error.
Page 28 [ Series 2, No. 147

Table 14.

Mortality

Cumulative

File cohort,

survival

by race,

probabilities

sex, and age

after 2, 5, and 7 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1995 NHIS Linked

2 years 5 years 7 years

Race, sex, and age U.S.

NHIS1 cohort

SE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS)

White males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

White females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

Black males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

Black females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

0.997

0.997

0.994

0.989

0.979

0.966

0.949

0.921

0.883

0.817

0.722

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.988

0.980

0.969

0.952

0.924

0.875

0.791

0.994

0.992

0.986

0.974

0.960

0.941

0.928

0.886

0.858

0.790

0.719

0.998

0.997

0.993

0.987

0.978

0.967

0.955

0.928

0.907

0.854

0.782

0.996

0.998

0.994

0.988

0.977

0.970

0.941

0.922

0.891

0.817

**0.799

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.983

0.983

0.974

0.956

0.934

**0.913

0.808

0.991

0.995

0.988

0.972

0.959

0.941

0.936

0.919

**0.742

0.698

0.673

0.999

0.994

0.996

0.984

0.982

0.947

0.960

0.930

0.961

0.904

0.806

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.004

0.005

0.007

0.008

0.012

0.018

0.022

0.000

0.000

0.001

0.001

0.004

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.010

0.016

0.006

0.002

0.005

0.007

0.011

0.019

0.020

0.024

0.055

0.081

0.097

0.001

0.003

0.002

0.005

0.009

0.016

0.015

0.020

0.018

0.035

0.039

0.994

0.992

0.985

0.969

0.942

0.908

0.862

0.795

0.702

0.559

0.398

0.998

0.997

0.993

0.982

0.965

0.944

0.914

0.868

0.792

0.667

0.502

0.986

0.983

0.967

0.933

0.893

0.856

0.813

0.729

0.656

0.527

0.387

0.996

0.992

0.982

0.967

0.940

0.914

0.876

0.816

0.753

0.633

0.497

0.991

0.995

0.986

0.969

0.948

0.901

0.853

0.803

0.720

0.564

0.388

0.999

0.998

0.991

0.983

0.956

0.945

0.922

0.884

0.814

**0.751

0.516

0.991

0.990

0.971

0.939

0.898

0.879

0.832

0.749

0.541

0.503

0.482

0.997

0.986

0.984

0.966

0.941

0.882

0.901

0.831

0.780

0.710

0.434

0.002

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.005

0.009

0.010

0.011

0.016

0.025

0.030

0.000

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.005

0.006

0.008

0.009

0.012

0.015

0.021

0.006

0.002

0.006

0.010

0.025

0.025

0.029

0.031

0.049

0.088

0.103

0.002

0.005

0.004

0.007

0.014

0.025

0.017

0.025

0.037

0.053

0.056

0.991

0.989

0.978

0.954

0.914

0.866

0.799

0.708

0.580

0.411

0.248

0.997

0.995

0.989

0.972

0.946

0.916

0.872

0.803

0.693

0.528

0.343

0.981

0.976

0.952

0.904

0.848

0.797

0.732

0.627

0.528

0.387

0.254

0.994

0.988

0.974

0.950

0.911

0.873

0.819

0.737

0.646

0.499

0.349

0.990

0.991

0.978

0.952

0.915

0.859

0.783

0.715

0.598

0.402

0.228

0.998

0.995

0.986

0.974

0.936

0.913

0.873

0.821

0.709

**0.614

0.367

0.982

0.981

0.958

0.912

0.852

0.815

0.760

0.637

0.438

0.447

0.396

0.994

0.981

0.974

0.949

0.921

0.868

0.824

0.774

0.667

0.522

0.258

0.002
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.004
 

0.007
 

0.010
 

0.013
 

0.012
 

0.017
 

0.025
 

0.025
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.006
 

0.007
 

0.009
 

0.011
 

0.013
 

0.017
 

0.019
 

0.007
 

0.004
 

0.007
 

0.013
 

0.028
 

0.032
 

0.032
 

0.036
 

0.051
 

0.086
 

0.109
 

0.003
 

0.005
 

0.006
 

0.008
 

0.017
 

0.024
 

0.025
 

0.026
 

0.038
 

0.063
 

0.053
 

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the

survey design were incorporated.

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.

SE is standard error.
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 29

Table 15. Cumulative survival probabilities after 2, 5, and 6 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1996 NHIS Linked

Mortality File cohort, by race, sex, and age

2 years 5 years 6 years

Race, sex, and age U.S.

NHIS

cohort1

SE

(NHIS)1 U.S.

NHIS

cohort1

SE

(NHIS)1 U.S.

NHIS

cohort1

SE

(NHIS)1

White males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

0.997

0.997

0.995

0.989

0.980

0.967

0.949

0.922

0.885

0.817

0.726

0.996

0.997

0.996

0.992

0.980

0.972

0.950

0.937

0.878

0.861

0.768

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.005

0.006

0.008

0.009

0.014

0.018

0.032

0.994

0.993

0.986

0.970

0.943

0.911

0.864

0.799

0.706

0.562

0.402

0.992

0.994

0.987

0.971

0.937

0.925

0.868

0.816

0.680

0.591

0.401

0.002

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.009

0.009

0.012

0.014

0.021

0.026

0.037

0.992

0.991

0.983

0.963

0.930

0.890

0.834

0.756

0.648

0.486

0.322

0.991

0.992

0.984

0.963

0.921

0.903

0.841

0.778

0.615

0.496

0.301

0.002

0.002

0.002

0.003

0.010

0.011

0.013

0.014

0.022

0.027

0.036

White females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.988

0.980

0.970

0.952

0.925

0.874

0.791

0.998

0.998

0.998

0.994

0.981

0.968

0.979

0.962

0.942

0.912

0.827

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.004

0.006

0.005

0.006

0.008

0.014

0.020

0.998

0.997

0.993

0.982

0.965

0.944

0.915

0.868

0.793

0.665

0.501

0.995

0.995

0.992

0.979

0.957

0.933

0.920

0.876

0.828

0.719

0.520

0.002

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.012

0.014

0.020

0.025

0.997

0.996

0.991

0.978

0.956

0.931

0.895

0.837

0.747

0.597

0.419

**0.992

0.994

0.989

0.973

0.943

0.920

0.903

0.848

0.776

0.643

0.438

0.002

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.008

0.009

0.010

0.013

0.017

0.024

0.023

Black males

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

0.994

0.993

0.988

0.975

0.961

0.942

0.931

0.889

0.861

0.795

0.727

0.996

0.996

0.990

0.988

0.967

0.906

0.956

0.904

0.928

0.828

0.500

0.004

0.003

0.004

0.006

0.016

0.026

0.020

0.028

0.035

0.070

0.108

0.987

0.984

0.970

0.935

0.896

0.858

0.818

0.734

0.659

0.533

0.442

0.988

0.987

0.972

0.940

0.897

0.806

0.853

0.704

0.758

0.682

0.323

0.006

0.005

0.008

0.014

0.029

0.037

0.033

0.044

0.058

0.086

0.109

0.984

0.981

0.963

0.922

0.874

0.829

0.777

0.682

0.595

0.459

0.360

0.985

0.984

0.967

0.928

0.873

0.785

0.798

0.675

0.676

0.682

0.194

0.006

0.005

0.008

0.014

0.035

0.038

0.040

0.048

0.067

0.086

0.082

Black females

18–24 years .....................

25–34 years .....................

35–44 years .....................

45–54 years .....................

55–59 years .....................

60–64 years .....................

65–69 years .....................

70–74 years .....................

75–79 years .....................

80–84 years .....................

85 years and over .................

0.998

0.997

0.994

0.987

0.978

0.967

0.957

0.928

0.908

0.855

0.787

0.995

1.000

0.991

0.988

1.000

0.964

0.970

0.921

0.940

0.850

0.762

0.003

0.000

0.003

0.004

0.000

0.015

0.013

0.025

0.025

0.045

0.068

0.996

0.992

0.983

0.962

0.941

0.915

0.879

0.815

0.752

0.631

0.497

0.995

0.996

0.983

0.958

0.958

0.916

0.894

0.838

0.824

0.640

0.604

0.003

0.002

0.004

0.012

0.014

0.022

0.022

0.028

0.043

0.047

0.071

0.995

0.990

0.979

0.954

0.927

0.895

0.852

0.778

0.704

0.567

0.423

0.995

0.994

0.977

0.944

0.935

0.875

0.868

0.794

0.776

0.630

0.504

0.003

0.002

0.005

0.012

0.020

0.025

0.026

0.028

0.043

0.046

0.069

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the

survey design were incorporated.

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.

SE is standard error.
Page 30 [ Series 2, No. 147

Table 16.

Mortality

Cumulative

File cohort,

survival

by race,

probabilities

sex, and age

after 2 and 5 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1997 NHIS Linked

2 years 5 years

Race, sex, and age U.S.

NHIS1 cohort

SE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS)

White males

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

White females

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

Black males

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

Black females

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

0.997

0.997

0.995

0.989

0.980

0.968

0.950

0.923

0.887

0.819

0.728

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.988

0.980

0.970

0.952

0.925

0.874

0.792

0.995

0.994

0.989

0.976

0.962

0.943

0.933

0.893

0.863

0.797

0.727

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.987

0.978

0.968

0.957

0.929

0.908

0.855

0.784

0.998

0.996

0.994

0.991

0.980

0.962

0.961

0.921

0.893

0.844

0.757

**0.996

0.999

0.997

0.993

0.987

0.981

0.966

0.967

0.932

0.876

0.823

0.994

0.996

0.994

0.976

0.981

0.948

0.952

0.885

0.902

0.773

0.698

0.997

0.995

0.990

0.990

0.972

0.972

0.943

0.950

0.925

0.857

0.851

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.006

0.008

0.011

0.016

0.028

0.001

0.000

0.001

0.001

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.005

0.007

0.011

0.017

0.004

0.002

0.003

0.006

0.008

0.017

0.017

0.030

0.031

0.065

0.096

0.002

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.011

0.011

0.014

0.015

0.022

0.033

0.033

0.994

0.993

0.986

0.970

0.945

0.913

0.867

0.801

0.708

0.566

0.407

0.998

0.997

0.993

0.982

0.966

0.945

0.916

0.868

0.793

0.667

0.504

0.987

0.985

0.972

0.936

0.898

0.860

0.818

0.739

0.658

0.538

0.420

0.996

0.993

0.983

0.965

0.942

0.915

0.881

0.819

0.753

0.637

0.502

0.994

0.991

0.984

0.974

0.939

0.917

0.875

0.797

0.733

0.564

0.399

**0.993

0.995

0.990

0.982

0.962

0.931

0.908

0.870

0.819

0.678

0.516

0.989

0.987

0.984

0.950

0.914

0.885

0.836

0.752

0.718

0.440

0.440

0.996

0.992

0.978

0.964

0.924

0.927

0.852

0.828

0.754

0.637

0.534

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.002
 

0.006
 

0.008
 

0.010
 

0.012
 

0.016
 

0.023
 

0.027
 

0.002
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.005
 

0.007
 

0.009
 

0.009
 

0.012
 

0.016
 

0.022
 

0.004
 

0.004
 

0.004
 

0.009
 

0.021
 

0.026
 

0.033
 

0.041
 

0.049
 

0.075
 

0.096
 

0.002
 

0.002
 

0.005
 

0.007
 

0.017
 

0.021
 

0.023
 

0.024
 

0.039
 

0.042
 

0.058
 

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the

survey design were incorporated.

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.

SE is standard error.
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 31

Table 17.

Mortality

Cumulative

File cohort,

survival

by race,

probabilities

sex, and age

after 2 and 4 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1998 NHIS Linked

2 years 4 years

Race, sex, and age U.S.

NHIS1 cohort

SE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS)

White males

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

White females

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

Black males

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

Black females

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

0.997

0.997

0.995

0.990

0.980

0.969

0.951

0.925

0.889

0.820

0.728

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.988

0.980

0.970

0.952

0.925

0.873

0.790

0.995

0.994

0.990

0.977

0.961

0.945

0.932

0.897

0.861

0.799

0.726

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.988

0.978

0.969

0.957

0.930

0.904

0.852

0.779

0.996

0.998

0.996

0.990

0.976

0.966

0.954

0.930

0.898

0.832

0.758

1.000

0.997

**0.995

0.994

0.984

0.976

0.961

0.959

0.939

**0.908

0.799

0.993

0.994

0.987

0.984

0.979

0.928

0.919

0.896

0.909

0.830

0.835

1.000

0.998

0.992

0.982

0.980

**0.920

0.942

0.920

0.933

0.864

0.790

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.002

0.005

0.005

0.006

0.008

0.012

0.017

0.027

0.000

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.008

0.011

0.016

0.004

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.011

0.023

0.022

0.028

0.032

0.041

0.077

0.000

0.002

0.003

0.005

0.009

0.023

0.015

0.021

0.021

0.034

0.054

0.995

0.994

0.989

0.978

0.958

0.934

0.898

0.846

0.774

0.651

0.504

0.998

0.997

0.994

0.987

0.974

0.958

0.935

0.899

0.841

0.737

0.594

0.990

0.989

0.979

0.952

0.922

0.891

0.859

0.795

0.724

0.622

0.511

0.997

0.994

0.987

0.973

0.956

0.935

0.908

0.859

0.804

0.709

0.589

0.993

0.997

0.991

0.976

0.945

0.930

0.900

0.851

0.786

0.629

0.553

0.997

**0.995

**0.990

0.986

0.976

0.948

0.923

0.903

0.862

0.774

0.626

0.984

0.983

0.982

0.968

0.938

0.854

0.856

0.801

0.799

0.678

0.662

1.000

0.995

0.982

0.968

0.940

**0.867

0.895

0.829

0.836

0.794

0.548

0.002
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.007
 

0.008
 

0.009
 

0.011
 

0.016
 

0.022
 

0.031
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.004
 

0.006
 

0.008
 

0.009
 

0.011
 

0.016
 

0.020
 

0.010
 

0.005
 

0.005
 

0.006
 

0.015
 

0.027
 

0.030
 

0.034
 

0.046
 

0.061
 

0.101
 

0.000
 

0.002
 

0.004
 

0.007
 

0.016
 

0.028
 

0.023
 

0.027
 

0.032
 

0.039
 

0.066
 

**The probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability.

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the

survey design were incorporated.

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.

SE is standard error.
Page 32 [ Series 2, No. 147

Table 18.

Mortality

Cumulative

File cohort,

survival

by race,

probabilities

sex, and age

after 2 and 3 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 1999 NHIS Linked

2 years 3 years

Race, sex, and age U.S.

NHIS1 cohort

SE 1 (NHIS) U.S.NHIS1 cohortSE 1 (NHIS)

White males

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

White females

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

Black males

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

Black females

18–24 years ..........................

25–34 years ..........................

35–44 years ..........................

45–54 years ..........................

55–59 years ..........................

60–64 years ..........................

65–69 years ..........................

70–74 years ..........................

75–79 years ..........................

80–84 years ..........................

85 years and over ......................

0.997

0.997

0.995

0.989

0.980

0.969

0.952

0.926

0.890

0.823

0.731

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.988

0.981

0.970

0.953

0.924

0.872

0.788

0.995

0.995

0.990

0.977

0.962

0.947

0.933

0.900

0.860

0.804

0.732

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.987

0.979

0.969

0.957

0.932

0.901

0.852

0.777

0.998

0.996

0.996

0.990

0.979

0.965

0.951

0.933

0.906

0.806

0.748

0.999

0.999

0.996

0.992

0.986

0.983

0.971

0.960

0.944

0.899

0.829

1.000

0.992

0.980

0.979

0.959

0.950

0.920

0.853

0.826

0.835

0.954

0.995

0.996

0.995

0.989

0.978

0.974

0.942

0.946

0.931

0.877

0.803

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.008

0.011

0.018

0.026

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.012

0.017

0.000

0.004

0.006

0.005

0.018

0.017

0.024

0.030

0.039

0.060

0.045

0.002

0.002

0.002

0.005

0.010

0.011

0.019

0.020

0.023

0.043

0.051

0.996

0.996

0.992

0.984

0.970

0.953

0.927

0.888

0.832

0.738

0.614

0.999

0.998

0.996

0.990

0.981

0.970

0.953

0.927

0.884

0.806

0.690

0.993

0.992

0.985

0.965

0.943

0.921

0.895

0.849

0.788

0.713

0.617

0.998

0.996

0.991

0.981

0.967

0.952

0.932

0.898

0.853

0.784

0.685

0.996

0.995

0.993

0.983

0.970

0.946

0.927

0.890

0.853

0.729

0.621

0.998

0.997

0.995

0.988

0.978

0.971

0.956

0.937

0.903

0.844

0.740

1.000

0.989

0.977

0.964

0.947

0.914

0.889

0.817

0.770

0.689

0.772

0.995

0.994

0.990

0.983

0.967

0.950

0.923

0.894

0.851

0.854

0.723

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.005
 

0.006
 

0.008
 

0.011
 

0.013
 

0.020
 

0.030
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.004
 

0.005
 

0.006
 

0.006
 

0.009
 

0.014
 

0.021
 

0.000
 

0.004
 

0.006
 

0.008
 

0.019
 

0.022
 

0.027
 

0.036
 

0.043
 

0.073
 

0.096
 

0.002
 

0.002
 

0.003
 

0.005
 

0.012
 

0.016
 

0.021
 

0.027
 

0.039
 

0.047
 

0.055
 

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the

survey design were incorporated.

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.

SE is standard error.
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 33

Table 19. Cumulative survival

File cohort, by race, sex, and

probabilities

age

after 2 years for the U.S. population, compared with those for the 2000 NHIS Linked Mortality

Race, sex, and age

2 years

U.S. NHIS cohort1 SE (NHIS)1

White males

18–24 years ........................................

25–34 years ........................................

35–44 years ........................................

45–54 years ........................................

55–59 years ........................................

60–64 years ........................................

65–69 years ........................................

70–74 years ........................................

75–79 years ........................................

80–84 years ........................................

85 years and over.....................................

White females

18–24 years ........................................

25–34 years ........................................

35–44 years ........................................

45–54 years ........................................

55–59 years ........................................

60–64 years ........................................

65–69 years ........................................

70–74 years ........................................

75–79 years ........................................

80–84 years ........................................

85 years and over.....................................

Black males

18–24 years ........................................

25–34 years ........................................

35–44 years ........................................

45–54 years ........................................

55–59 years ........................................

60–64 years ........................................

65–69 years ........................................

70–74 years ........................................

75–79 years ........................................

80–84 years ........................................

85 years and over.....................................

Black females

18–24 years ........................................

25–34 years ........................................

35–44 years ........................................

45–54 years ........................................

55–59 years ........................................

60–64 years ........................................

65–69 years ........................................

70–74 years ........................................

75–79 years ........................................

80–84 years ........................................

85 years and over.....................................

0.997

0.997

0.995

0.989

0.980

0.970

0.954

0.928

0.890

0.826

0.736

0.999

0.999

0.997

0.994

0.988

0.981

0.970

0.953

0.925

0.874

0.792

0.995

0.995

0.991

0.978

0.963

0.950

0.931

0.900

0.860

0.804

0.735

0.999

0.998

0.994

0.988

0.979

0.970

0.956

0.935

0.903

0.857

0.789

0.998

0.996

0.993

0.989

0.981

0.973

0.944

0.930

0.900

0.867

0.712

0.999

0.999

0.996

0.992

0.990

0.979

0.979

0.961

0.934

0.902

0.833

1.000

0.997

0.993

0.983

0.974

0.960

0.955

0.922

0.848

0.880

0.651

0.997

0.997

0.996

0.988

0.976

0.963

0.944

0.938

0.946

0.857

0.912

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.004
 

0.005
 

0.008
 

0.009
 

0.011
 

0.016
 

0.030 
 

0.000
 

0.000
 

0.001
 

0.001
 

0.003
 

0.004
 

0.004
 

0.006
 

0.008
 

0.010
 

0.016 
 

0.000
 

0.002
 

0.003
 

0.005
 

0.010
 

0.016
 

0.018
 

0.027
 

0.046
 

0.048
 

0.095 
 

0.002
 

0.001
 

0.002
 

0.003
 

0.008
 

0.012
 

0.020
 

0.016
 

0.018
 

0.038
 

0.033 
 

1Cumulative survival probabilities and standard errors were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier product limit method. The sample weights (adjusted for exclusion of ineligible NHIS participants) and the

survey design were incorporated.

NOTES: For the NHIS cohort, age is age at interview. For the U.S. population, age is the midpoint of the age group. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. U.S. is the U.S. population.

SE is standard error.
Page 34 [ Series 2, No. 147

Table 20. Percent distribution of the size of the differences between the NHIS and U.S. cumulative survival probabilities, by NHIS cohort,

race, sex, statistical significance, and size of the differences: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files

Difference between NHIS and U.S. survival probabilities1

All differences2 Statistically significant differences2 Nonsignificant differences2

Size of differences3 Size of differences3 Size of differences3

0.01 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.05

to to to to to to

NHIS cohort, race, and sex Total < 0.01 < 0.05 < 0.10 ≥ 0.10 Total < 0.01 < 0.05 < 0.10 ≥ 0.10 Total < 0.01 < 0.05 < 0.10 ≥ 0.10

1986–19874

White males .............. 100.0 71.6 21.6 6.8 0.0 8.0 3.4 2.3 2.3 0.0 92.0 68.2 19.3 4.5 0.0

White females ............. 100.0 63.6 22.7 12.5 1.1 17.0 1.1 3.4 11.4 1.1 82.9 62.5 19.3 1.1 0.0

Black males .............. 100.0 21.6 52.3 17.0 9.1 4.5 0.0 2.3 1.1 1.1 95.5 21.6 50.0 15.9 8.0

Black females ............. 100.0 40.9 33.0 14.8 11.4 5.7 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.4 94.4 40.9 33.0 12.5 8.0

1988–19925

White males .............. 100.0 65.5 29.7 4.8 0.0 6.6 0.0 3.0 3.6 0.0 93.4 65.5 26.7 1.2 0.0

White females ............. 100.0 68.5 20.6 10.3 0.6 24.8 4.8 9.1 10.3 0.6 75.2 63.7 11.5 0.0 0.0

Black males .............. 100.0 33.9 49.7 12.7 3.6 5.4 0.0 4.2 0.0 1.2 94.5 33.9 45.5 12.7 2.4

Black females ............. 100.0 48.5 36.4 8.5 6.7 6.0 0.6 1.2 0.6 3.6 94.1 47.9 35.2 7.9 3.1

1993–19976

White males .............. 100.0 78.2 20.0 1.8 0.0 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 98.2 77.3 20.0 0.9 0.0

White females ............. 100.0 71.8 24.5 3.6 0.0 6.3 1.8 2.7 1.8 0.0 93.6 70.0 21.8 1.8 0.0

Black males .............. 100.0 44.5 40.0 10.0 5.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 99.1 44.5 40.0 10.0 4.6

Black females ............. 100.0 58.2 30.0 9.1 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 58.2 30.0 9.1 2.7

1998–20007

White males .............. 100.0 78.8 21.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 78.8 21.2 0.0 0.0

White females ............. 100.0 78.8 21.2 0.0 0.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 94.0 75.8 18.2 0.0 0.0

Black males .............. 100.0 45.5 42.4 6.1 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.1 45.5 42.4 6.1 6.1

Black females ............. 100.0 60.6 36.4 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 97.0 60.6 33.4 0.0 3.0

1The total number of differences computed for a given NHIS cohort-race-sex group is used as the denominator for all percentages in a given row. Note that the denominators differ by NHIS cohort
 

group as outlined below. The numerators for the ‘‘Statistically significant differences’’ percentages are counts only of statistically significant differences; the numerators for the ‘‘Nonsignificant
 

differences’’ percentages are counts of only the nonsignificant differences. The numerators for the ‘‘All differences’’ percentages are counts of all computed differences (the statistically significant
 

differences plus the nonsignificant differences) for the given NHIS cohort-race-sex group.
 

2The survival probabilities for the NHIS cohort and the U.S. population are considered to be statistically significantly different if the probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence
 

interval around the NHIS probability.
 

3The absolute differences between the NHIS and U.S. survival probabilities have been categorized according to size of the difference.
 

4The number of differences computed for each race-sex group in the combined 1986–1987 cohorts is 2 survey years (1986–1987) × 11 age groups×4lengths of follow-up (2, 5, 10, and 15 years) =
 

88. The denominator for all of the percentages in this section is 88.

5The number of differences computed for each race-sex group in the combined 1988–1992 cohorts is 5 survey years (1988–1992) × 11 age groups×3lengths of follow-up (2, 5, and 10 years) = 165.
 

The denominator for all of the percentages in this section is 165.
 

6The number of differences computed for each race-sex group in the combined 1993–1997 cohorts is 5 survey years (1993–1997) × 11 age groups×2lengths of follow-up (2 and 5 years) = 110. The
 

denominator for all of the percentages in this section is 110.
 

7The number of differences computed for each race-sex group in the combined 1998–2000 cohorts is 3 survey years (1998–2000) × 11 age groups×1length of follow-up (2 years) = 33. The
 

denominator for all of the percentages in this section is 33.
 

NOTE: NHIS is National Health Interview Survey. Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 35

Table 21. Number and percentage of statistically significant differences between the cumulative survival probabilities for the NHIS Linked

Mortality Files and those for the U.S. population, by length of follow-up and NHIS cohort: 1986–2000 NHIS Linked Mortality Files

Length of follow-up

2 years 5 years 10 years 15 years

NHIS cohort Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

1986 .......................... – – – – 2 4.5 5 11.4

1987 .......................... 1 2.3 3 6.8 7 15.9 13 29.5

1988 .......................... 3 6.8 5 11.4 7 15.9 . . . . . .

1989 .......................... 6 13.6 4 9.1 7 15.9 . . . . . .

1990 .......................... 3 6.8 5 11.4 8 18.2 . . . . . .

1991 .......................... 2 4.5 3 6.8 8 18.2 . . . . . .

1992 .......................... 2 4.5 2 4.5 6 13.6 . . . . . .

1993 .......................... 1 2.3 1 2.3 . . . . . . . . . . . .

1994 .......................... 1 2.3 1 2.3 . . . . . . . . . . . .

1995 .......................... 3 6.8 1 2.3 . . . . . . . . . . . .

1996 .......................... – – – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

1997 .......................... 1 2.3 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1998 .......................... 3 6.8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1999 .......................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2000 .......................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

– Quantity zero.

. . . Category not applicable.

NOTES: For each NHIS cohort and length of follow-up, cumulative survival probabilities were estimated for 44 age-race-sex groups, so all of the percentages in this table are calculated as the number

of statistically significant differences divided by 44. The survival probabilities for the NHIS cohort and the U.S. population are considered to be statistically significantly different if the probability for the

U.S. population falls outside the 99% confidence interval around the NHIS probability. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey.
Page 36 [ Series 2, No. 147

Table 22. Number and percentage of statistically significant differences between the cumulative survival probabilities for the NHIS cohorts

and those for the U.S. population, by NHIS cohort, race, and sex: 1986–2000 NHIS-NDI Linked Mortality Files

Length of follow-up

2 years 5 years 10 years 15 years

NHIS cohort, race, and sex Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

1986 and 19871

Total ..........................

White males .....................

White females ....................

Black males .....................

Black females ....................

1

–

1

–

–

1.1

–

4.5

–

–

3

–

3

–

–

3.4

–

13.6

–

–

9

2

5

1

1

10.2

9.1

22.7

4.5

4.5

18

5

6

3

4

20.5

22.7

27.3

13.6

18.2

1988 through 19922

Total ..........................

White males .....................

White females ....................

Black males .....................

Black females ....................

16

1

12

1

2

7.2

1.8

21.8

1.8

3.6

19

1

13

2

3

8.6

1.8

23.6

3.6

5.5

36

9

16

6

5

16.4

16.4

29.1

10.9

9.1

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

1993 through 19973

Total ..........................

White males .....................

White females ....................

Black males .....................

Black females ....................

6

2

3

1

–

2.7

3.6

5.5

1.8

–

4

–

4

–

–

1.8

–

7.3

–

–

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

1998 through 20004

Total ..........................

White males .....................

White females ....................

Black males .....................

Black females ....................

3

–

2

–

1

2.3

–

6.1

–

3.0

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

– Quantity zero.
 

. . . Category not applicable.
 

1Statistically significant differences aggregated for survey years 1986–1987 (denominator for total percentages is 2 × 44 = 88, and denominator for race-sex percentages is 22).
 

2Statistically significant differences aggregated for survey years 1988–1992 (denominator for total percentages is 5 × 44 = 220, and denominators for race-sex percentages is 55).
 

3Statistically significant differences aggregated for survey years 1993–1997 (denominator for total percentages is 5 × 44 = 220, and denominators for race-sex percentages is 55).
 

4Statistically significant differences aggregated for survey years 1998–2000 (denominators for total percentages is 3 × 44 = 132, and denominator for race-sex percentages is 33).
 

NOTES: The survival probabilities for the NHIS cohort and the U.S. population are considered to be statistically significantly different if the probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99%
 

confidence interval around the NHIS probability. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey.
 
Series 2, No. 147 [ Page 37

Table 23. Number and percentage of statistically significant differences between the cumulative survival probabilities based on the NHIS

Linked Mortality File and those based on the U.S. population, by NHIS cohort, age at NHIS interview, and length of follow-up: 1986–2000

NHIS Linked Mortality Files

Length of follow-up

2 years 5 years 10 years 15 years

NHIS cohort and age at

NHIS interview Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

1986–19871

All ages............................. 1 1.1 3 3.4 9 10.2 18 20.5

18–24 years .......................... – – – – – – – –

25–34 years .......................... – – – – – – 3 37.5

35–44 years .......................... – – – – 1 12.5 2 25.0

45–54 years .......................... – – – – – – 1 12.5

55–59 years .......................... – – – – – – 1 12.5

60–64 years .......................... – – – – – – – –

65–69 years .......................... – – – – – – – –

70–74 years .......................... – – – – – – 1 12.5

75–79 years .......................... – – 1 12.5 1 12.5 1 12.5

80–84 years .......................... – – 1 12.5 3 37.5 4 50.0

85 years and over ...................... 1 12.5 1 12.5 4 50.0 5 62.5

1988–19922

All ages............................. 16 7.3 19 8.6 38 17.3 . . . . . .

18–24 years .......................... 1 5.0 3 15.0 2 10.0 . . . . . .

25–34 years .......................... – – – – 2 10.0 . . . . . .

35–44 years .......................... 1 5.0 2 10.0 4 20.0 . . . . . .

45–54 years .......................... – – – – 3 15.0 . . . . . .

55–59 years .......................... – – – – 1 5.0 . . . . . .

60–64 years .......................... – – 1 5.0 1 5.0 . . . . . .

65–69 years .......................... 1 5.0 – – – – . . . . . .

70–74 years .......................... 1 5.0 2 10.0 – – . . . . . .

75–79 years .......................... 2 10.0 1 5.0 3 15.0 . . . . . .

80–84 years .......................... 4 20.0 5 25.0 8 40.0 . . . . . .

85 years and over ...................... 6 30.0 5 25.0 12 60.0 . . . . . .

1993–19973

All ages............................. 6 2.7 4 1.8 . . . . . . . . . . . .

18–24 years .......................... 1 5.0 1 5.0 . . . . . . . . . . . .

25–34 years .......................... 1 5.0 – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

35–44 years .......................... – – – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

45–54 years .......................... – – – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

55–59 years .......................... – – – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

60–64 years .......................... – – – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

65–69 years .......................... – – – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

70–74 years .......................... – – – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

75–79 years .......................... 1 5.0 – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

80–84 years .......................... 2 10.0 3 15.0 . . . . . . . . . . . .

85 years and over ...................... 1 5.0 – – . . . . . . . . . . . .

1998–20004

All ages............................. 3 2.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

18–24 years .......................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

25–34 years .......................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

35–44 years .......................... 1 8.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

45–54 years .......................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

55–59 years .......................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

60–64 years .......................... 1 8.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

65–69 years .......................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

70–74 years .......................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

75–79 years .......................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

80–84 years .......................... 1 8.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

85 years and over ...................... – – . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

– Quantity zero.
 

. . . Category not applicable.
 

1Statistically significant differences aggregated for survey years 1986–1987(denominator for total percentages is 2 × 44 = 88, and denominator for age group percentages is 8).
 

2Statistically significant differences aggregated for survey years 1988–1992 (denominator for total percentages is 5 × 44 = 220, and denominator for age group percentages is 20).
 

3Statistically significant differences aggregated for survey years 1993–1997 (denominator for total percentages is 5 × 44 = 220, and denominator for age group percentages is 20).
 

4Statistically significant differences aggregated for survey years 1998–2000 (denominator for total percentages is 3 × 44 = 132, and denominator for age group percentages is 12).
 

NOTES: The survival probabilities for the NHIS cohort and the U.S. population are considered to be statistically significantly different if the probability for the U.S. population falls outside the 99%
 

confidence interval around the NHIS probability. NHIS is National Health Interview Survey.
 
Vital and Health Statistics

series descriptions

SERIES 1.	 Programs and Collection Procedures—These reports

describe the data collection programs of the National Center

for Health Statistics. They include descriptions of the methods

used to collect and process the data, definitions, and other

material necessary for understanding the data.

SERIES 2.	 Data Evaluation and Methods Research—These reports

are studies of new statistical methods and include analytical

techniques, objective evaluations of reliability of collected

data, and contributions to statistical theory. These studies

also include experimental tests of new survey methods and

comparisons of U.S. methodology with those of other

countries.

SERIES 3.	 Analytical and Epidemiological Studies—These reports

present analytical or interpretive studies based on vital and

health statistics. These reports carry the analyses further than

the expository types of reports in the other series.

SERIES 4.	 Documents and Committee Reports—These are final

reports of major committees concerned with vital and health

statistics and documents such as recommended model vital

registration laws and revised birth and death certificates.

SERIES 5.	 International Vital and Health Statistics Reports—These

reports are analytical or descriptive reports that compare U.S.

vital and health statistics with those of other countries or

present other international data of relevance to the health

statistics system of the United States.

SERIES 6.	 Cognition and Survey Measurement—These reports are

from the National Laboratory for Collaborative Research in

Cognition and Survey Measurement. They use methods of

cognitive science to design, evaluate, and test survey

instruments.

SERIES 10.	 Data From the National Health Interview Survey—These

reports contain statistics on illness; unintentional injuries;

disability; use of hospital, medical, and other health services;

and a wide range of special current health topics covering

many aspects of health behaviors, health status, and health

care utilization. They are based on data collected in a

continuing national household interview survey.

SERIES 11.	 Data From the National Health Examination Survey, the

National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, and

the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey—

Data from direct examination, testing, and measurement on

representative samples of the civilian noninstitutionalized

population provide the basis for (1) medically defined total

prevalence of specific diseases or conditions in the United

States and the distributions of the population with respect to

physical, physiological, and psychological characteristics, and

(2) analyses of trends and relationships among various

measurements and between survey periods.

SERIES 12.	 Data From the Institutionalized Population Surveys—

Discontinued in 1975. Reports from these surveys are

included in Series 13.

SERIES 13.	 Data From the National Health Care Survey—These

reports contain statistics on health resources and the public’s

use of health care resources including ambulatory, hospital,

and long-term care services based on data collected directly

from health care providers and provider records.

SERIES 14.	 Data on Health Resources: Manpower and Facilities—

Discontinued in 1990. Reports on the numbers, geographic

distribution, and characteristics of health resources are now

included in Series 13.

SERIES 15.	 Data From Special Surveys—These reports contain

statistics on health and health-related topics collected in

special surveys that are not part of the continuing data

systems of the National Center for Health Statistics.

SERIES 16.	 Compilations of Advance Data From Vital and Health

Statistics—Advance Data Reports provide early release of

information from the National Center for Health Statistics’

health and demographic surveys. They are compiled in the

order in which they are published. Some of these releases

may be followed by detailed reports in Series 10–13.

SERIES 20.	 Data on Mortality—These reports contain statistics on

mortality that are not included in regular, annual, or monthly

reports. Special analyses by cause of death, age, other

demographic variables, and geographic and trend analyses

are included.

SERIES 21.	 Data on Natality, Marriage, and Divorce—These reports

contain statistics on natality, marriage, and divorce that are

not included in regular, annual, or monthly reports. Special

analyses by health and demographic variables and

geographic and trend analyses are included.

SERIES 22.	 Data From the National Mortality and Natality Surveys—

Discontinued in 1975. Reports from these sample surveys,

based on vital records, are now published in Series 20 or 21.

SERIES 23.	 Data From the National Survey of Family Growth—These

reports contain statistics on factors that affect birth rates,

including contraception, infertility, cohabitation, marriage,

divorce, and remarriage; adoption; use of medical care for

family planning and infertility; and related maternal and infant

health topics. These statistics are based on national surveys

of women and men of childbearing age.

SERIES 24.	 Compilations of Data on Natality, Mortality, Marriage, and

Divorce—These include advance reports of births, deaths,

marriages, and divorces based on final data from the National

Vital Statistics System that were published as National Vital

Statistics Reports (NVSR), formerly Monthly Vital Statistics

Report. These reports provide highlights and summaries of

detailed data subsequently published in Vital Statistics of the

United States. Other special reports published here provide

selected findings based on final data from the National Vital

Statistics System and may be followed by detailed reports in

Series 20 or 21.

For answers to questions about this report or for a list of reports published

in these series, contact:

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National Center for Health Statistics

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 2009–1347, Series 2, No. 147