Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group,
State, and United States, 1996-97
Seasonal Group :
and
State

:: Seasonal Group

1,000 Acres

Winter 1/ 2 Fall 1/ 2/

cA : 5.7 CA : 11.5 10.5
PL t 8.8 co 78.0 77.0
Total z 14.5 ID 415.0 390.0
: 10 SW Co 28.0 27.0
Spring 1/ : Other ID 387.0 363.0
AL : 2.0 1.6 IN 5.7 $.7
AZ : 9.0 6.2 ME 78.0 74.0
CA z 20.1 18.6 MA t 2.7 2.7
FL : 38.0 36.0 MI 52.0 49.0
Hastings : 28.5 27.0 MN 85.0 79.0
Other FL : 9.5 9.0 MT 10.4 10.4
Nc : 17.5 17.0 NE 12.7 19.5
Tx : 6.8 8.3 NV : 8.0 7.3
Total 2 93.4 87.7 NM : 6.7 6.3
3 NY 3 29.0 30.0
Summer 2/ : ND 134.0 125.0
AL 3 6.8 6.0 OH 5.2 5.1
CA 5.8 5.9 OR 62.0 57.0
co 2 10.0 7.8 Malheur Co 13.6 11.0
DE : 5.4 4.3 Other OR 48.4 46.0
IL : 6.3 4.8 PA 17.0 15.0
IA l/s 3 1.5 1.3 RI 3 0.8 0.8
MD : 2.7 3.5 sD : 5.0 4.5
MO : 7.8 6.4 is 4.3 3.2
NE H 5.6 4.4 WA 3 163.0 148.0
No z 2.6 2.4 Wr + 83.0 78.0
NM : 3.9 4.4 wy : 0.9 0.7

Nc i/ 3 1.2 1.2
TX 2 10.5 8.5 Total 1,269.9 1,198.6

VA 3 8.0 8.0
Total 3 78.1 68.9 us 1,455.9 1,370.8

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A~20 NASS, USDA


was a record high 364 cwt per acre, up 12 cwt from the previous record in 1994
and 30 cwt above 1995. Compared with preliminary estimates made last December,
larger crops were registered in Colorado and Idaho; smaller crops were seen in
Oregon, Rhode Island, and South Dakota.

All Potatoes, 1996: Final production of potatoes from all four seasons in 1996
totaled 499 million cwt, up 12 percent from a year earlier
and 7 percent above 1994. Area harvested is estimated at 1.43 million acres,
4 percent above 1995 and 3 percent above 1994. Yield, averaging 350 cwt per
acre, jumped 27 cwt from a year earlier and 11 cwt from two years ago. In 1996,
all seasonal groups increased in production from the previous year: Winter
jumped 32 percent; spring increased 11 percent; summer rose 9 percent; and
fall potatoes gained 13 percent.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 1.61 billion
pounds, down 1 percent from August 1 but up 6 percent from 1996.

Harvested acreage, estimated at 794,750 acres, is down 190 acres from August 1.

This reduction in acres of cigar type tobacco in Connecticut and Massachusetts

is due to a major outbreak of blue mold. U.S. all tobacco yield for 1997 is

expected to average 2,031 pounds per acre, 15 pounds below last month and

40 pounds below the average for 1996.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 964 million pounds, up 6 percent from
1996. Producers plan to harvest 450,700 acres, up 7 percent from last year.

The North Carolina flue-cured tobacco harvest is running 2 to 3 weeks late, with
only 50 percent of the crop harvested by September 1, as compared to the
five-year average of 62 percent. In Georgia, warm and dry temperatures during
August contributed to a rapid harvest pace. By the end of August, harvest was
about 2 weeks ahead of normal. Virginia growers are characterizing the crop as
fairly normal, with extremes of very poor fields to excellent fields. South
Carolina’s harvest progress, at 87 percent, is nearly complete, with the
remaining acres reported to be in mostly good condition. Overall flue-cured
yield is expected to average 2,138 pounds per acre, down 43 pounds from the
August 1 forecast and 13 pounds below last year. Weather conditions across
North Carolina have been dry, and yields have shown a marked decrease.

Burley production is expected to total 561 million pounds, up 1 percent from
August 1 projections and 8 percent above the 1996 production. Burley tobacco
growers expect to harvest 301,300 acres, up 12 percent from last year. Yield is
expected to average 1,864 pounds per acre, up 15 pounds from August 1 but

76 pounds below the average for 1996. Increased yield prospects in Tennessee
more than offset decreased yields in North Carolina, Ohio, and Tennessee.
Kentucky, with 71 percent of the 1997 burley production, is expected ta produce
9 percent more tobacco than a year ago. Crop conditions remain mostly fair to
good, with 22 percent of the crop cut at the end of August.

Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus groves, trees, and new crop fruit were in very

good condition. August was wetter than normal but had normal
temperatures. An abundance of new growth on trees of all ages has been
generated by the near tropical weather conditions. New crop fruit in well cared
for groves is making very good progress. A few fresh fruit packing houses are
Planning to pack new crop grapefruit in September. The maturity tests of
grapefruit, Navel and Ambersweet orange, and Fallglo tangerine groves are near
or above the passing levels. There has been a little premature splitting of
early fruit in the wetter groves. Caretakers have been very active cutting
cover crops that grew well with the heavy summer rains. Many growers are
sprayed and fertilized between the summer rains. Dead tree removal continued
along with some replanting in the bigger groves.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-10 NASS, USDA


Of Kansas’s late season crops, sorghum appears to have benefitted most from the
rains during August. Yields in the top producing State increased five bushels
from August to 75.0 bushels per acre. Forecasted production, however, is still
only three-fourths of their 1996 record crop. Recent precipitation and
favorable weather in Colorado helped improve sorghum conditions and yield
prospects from the previous month. Development is slightly behind normal, but
no disease problems have been reported. Rainfall during August also helped
revive the New Mexico crop and expectations are high among growers for the best
yields in four years. As of the last week in August, harvest had just begun in
Arkansas and was well underway in Louisiana and Texas with 39 and 47 percent
combined, respectively. Grain harvest had just started along the southern
border of Kansas.

Barley: Production is forecast at 379 million bushels, down slightly from

August and 4 percent below the 1996 production. The expected yield
per acre is forecasted at 59.3 bushels, down 0.1 bushels from last month but
0.8 bushels above 1996. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from
August at 6.40 million acres, down 6 percent from the previous year.

Yields remained unchanged from August in eight of the eleven September forecast
States, but declined in Minnesota and South Dakota. Washington was the only
State to show an increase from August, up two bushels per acre. Favorable
weather during August helped push harvest progress ahead of normal in most of
the major producing States. Seventy-five percent of the crop had been combined
by August 31, compared with the 65 percent normally harvested at this time.
Favorable conditions in North Dakota allowed for the majority of the State's
crop to be combined during August. Harvest was winding down in South Dakota,
Washington, and Wisconsin.

Durum Wheat: September 1 conditions point to no yield changes in Minnesota,
Montana and South Dakota. About half of Montana’s Durum crop was
harvested while North Dakota combining was ahead of both last year and the
S-year average. Condition ratings on the remaining North Dakota crop were
impacted by scab in the northeast. Objective yield survey head counts in North
Dakota are the lowest since 1988. Head weights continue to trend lower as the
effect of the westward movement of the acreage is becoming more pronounced.

Other Spring Wheat: As of August 31, Washington's spring wheat harvest was

95 percent complete as excellent conditions prevailed,
Conversely, frequent rains have slowed the Idaho harvest. Very good yields have
been realized in Washington. Hard Red Spring harvest in the major states
(Minnesota, Montana, and North and South Dakota) was ahead of average progress.
South Dakota’s crop is not yielding as high as expected in some areas. Scab
damage is evident on both sides of the Red River.

Objective Yield survey data show plant populations well above average in
Minnesota, and slightly better than average in Montana and North Dakota.
Montana’s weight per head forecast is similar to 1994. Minnesota’s forecast is
about average for the last five years. The North Dakota weight per head
forecast is lower than any in the 1983~1996 period, with the lowest weights
occurring in the eastern third of the state.

Rice: Rice production is forecast at 181 million cwt, down fractionally from
August 1 but up 6 percent from 1996. If realized, this would be the
third highest production on record. Area for harvest is unchanged from August 1
and is 9 percent above last year. Yields are expected to average a near-record
5,975 pounds per acre, down 19 pounds from August 1 and 146 pounds below 1996's

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B~6 NASS, USDA


Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using
corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 445 million bushels, ranging
from 10 million to 893 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply that the
September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts

:Root Mean Square Error: 10-year Record of
: Differences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

: :90% Confidence

Crop and 3 : Level i ~---- 2-2 ne nnn enn nnn nner rene
Unit : : Quantity :No. of Years
: :Below:Above
: Avg:Small:Large:Final:Final
Mil
Corn for Grain Bu: 5.9 10.1 445 10 893 6 4
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 7.3 12.7 44 L 115 6 4
Barley Bu: 3.6 6.5 12 3 38 4 6
All Wheat Bu: 1.4 2.5 31 2 97 2 8
Durum Bu: 5.6 9.8 4 1 12 4 6
Other Spring Bu: 3.6 6.3 19 1 62 4 6
Rice cwrs 4.3 7.3 6 9 16 6 4
Soybeans for ‘
Beans Bu:

8.8 242 96 «19 201 5
Cotton 6

1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-15 NASS, USDA


Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1995-1996
and Forecasted September 1, 1997 1/

Winter : Spring

Soft
Red

Year Hard

Durum

1,000 Bushels

1995 : 825,042 455,568 264,043 475,046 102,280 60,612 2,182,591
1996 +: 762,402 422,019 293,627 626,753 115,840 61,122 2,281,763
1997 1,112,228 469,624 273,622 503,364 90,155 58,176 2,507,169

i/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the
previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season.

Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1936 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

: 1,000 Acres ~- Pounds --- 1,000
AR : 41,170 1,337 6,150 5,850 5,850 71,945 78,215
CA : 500 513 7,490 8,200 8,200 37,459 42,066
LA $33 565 4,870 4,800 4,650 25,977 26,273
MS 208 268 6,000 5,500 5,600 12,480 15,008
MO i/ : 90 95 5,550 5,400 5,400 4,995 5,130
TX : 298 259 6,200 5,700 5,700 18,465 14,763
us 2,799 3,037 6,121 5,994 5,975 171,321 181,455

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

Year : Long Grain : All
1995 121,730 173,871
1996 113,462 171,321
1997 1/ 126,870 181,455

1/ Indicated September 1, 1997, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-14 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruits:
1995-96,

Crop and State

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 4/

G
a

Valencia
AZ
CA 3

Utilized Production by Crop,
1996-97 and Forecasted September 1,

700
38,000
121,200
830
160,730

950
20,000
82,100

110

103,160

1,650
58,000
203,300
940

Boxes

400
40,000
134,200
1,300
175,900

600
28,000
92,000

120

120,720

1,000
68,000
226,200

State, and United States,

1997 1/ 2/

44,000

27
1,426
5,454

6,942

Utilized Production
Ton Equivalent

Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit

1/ 1995-96 and 1996-97 revised.
totals will be released September 23,

in “Citrus Fruite,

1997 Summary”.

2/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with

the completion of harvest the following year.
oranges-AZ & CA-75,

3/ Net lbs. per box:

FL-90,

TxX-85.

4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early
midseason varieties in FL and Tx.

Crop Production
September 1997

small quantities of

(including Navel) and
tangerines in TX.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


California Citrus: The Valencia harvest slowed early in August, but picked up

by the end of the month. Red grapefruit and lemons were
also harvested during August. The new navel crop was ahead of normal and
maturing well with large fruit sizes.

Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 29.4 million tons, an

increase of 10 percent from 1996 but down 1 percent from the August
“Crop Report”. Area for harvest, at 1.43 million acres, is up & percent from
last year but down slightly from the August forecast. The average yield, at
20.5 tons per acre, is 0.3 tons above 1996 but 0.1 tons below the yield
forecasted in August.

Condition of North Dakota sugarbeets remained mostly good to excellent during
August. Factories in North Dakota and Minnesota are preparing for the start of
lifting in the middle of September. California sugarbeet growers have
experienced mostly favorable growing conditions throughout the 1997 season.
Sugarbeets continued to develop favorably in the central Plains. In Michigan,
August rainfall benefited the sizing of the crop.

Sugarcane: U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1997 is expected to
total 29.7 million tons, up 1 percent from 1996 and up fractionally

from the August “Crop Report”. The expected area for harvest, at 915,000 acres,

is 3 percent above last year. The expected harvested acreage is up 20,000 acres

from the August forecast. The forecasted yield, at 32.4 tons per acre, is

0.7 tons below 1996 and down 0.6 tons from August.

The Florida sugarcane growing area has had no major storm damage so far this
season. Florida growers were making preparations to plant while mills were
preparing to begin milling in late October. In Hawaii, weather during August was
generally favorable for crop progress and harvesting. Shower activities were
confined to windward and upper elevations. Sugarcane yield in Louisiana is
expected to be a little lower than in 1996. Too much rain during the growing
season, then a recent drought that stunted stubble cane, didn’t allow the root
system to develop. The recent 10-12 day stretch of no rain has allowed Louisiana
farmers to make excellent planting progress. Irrigation water supplies are still
a concern in Texas.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.72 million pounds for
August, 6 percent lower than last month and 9 percent lower than

August 1996. August weather conditions were a mix of light rainfall and sunny

periods. Papaya ringspot virus continued to depress yields of infected fields.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 5,350 acres, 1 percent more than July
and 50 percent more than last August. Harvested area, totaling 2,335 acres, was
virtually unchanged from last month but 40 percent higher than a year ago.

California Fruits and Nuts: The almond harvest intensified, expanding north

from the central San Joaquin Valley. The harvest
of early variety walnuts began in the southern and central San Joaquin Valley.
Table grape harvest remained active. Raisin and wine grape harvesting gained
momentum. Peach, plum, and nectarine picking slowed during the month. Prunes
were sent to dehydrators. Fuji, Gala, and other early variety apples were
harvested. The harvest of Bartlett pears, Asian pears, and pomegranates
continued. The olive crop was light, but was sizing normally.

Hazelnut: Hazelnut Production in Oregon and Washington is forecast to be
40,000 tons this year. If realized, this would be the second largest

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-11 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Oats Bu

Winter Wheat ’

All Hay Ton
Alfalfa *
All Other ”

Dry Edible Beans 2/ Cwt
Potatoes

Winter Cwt
Spring "
Hops Lb

Ginger Root (HI) .
Apples, Comm'1 "
Peaches "
Pears Ton
Grapes "
Sweet Cherries "
Tart Cherries Lb
Apricots Ton
Olives (CA) .
Dried Prunes (CA) .
Prunes and Plums

(excl CA) .
Almonds (CA) Lb
Pistachios (CA) .
Hazelnuts Ton
Walnuts (CA) .

United States, 1996-97
(Domestic Units)

1,698
47,000

58.1
44.6
2.53
3.30
2.04
1,666

205
250
1,680
44,000

Yield per Acre and Production,

155,225
1,478,048
149,457
79,377
70,080
27,354

3,273
22,417
74,970.5
9,400
10,355,000
2,070,300
820.8
5,548.2
154.3
270,300
79.8
166.0
220.0

20.0
510,000
105,000

18.5

Production

29,163

3,157
21,498

73 ,838.0
12,100
10,648,900
2,643,900
1,019.8
6,644.4
191.3
242,200
132.0
95.0
215.0

28.4
680,000
170,000

40.0

year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

1/ Estimates for current
2/ Yield in pounds.

Crop Production
September 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


In Oregon, Astoria's third-longest dry spell on record ended on August 20 at

35 days, a victim of remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Ignacio. A day
earlier, 0.73 inches fell in downtown San Francisco, CA, just 0.05 inches shy of
their August-record total, set in 1976 during the passage of Hurricane
Catherine's remnants. Rainfall more typical of the approaching autumn season
arrived at month's end across the Pacific Northwest. On August 26, both Eureka
(0.47 inches) and Astoria (1.01 inches) posted daily-record rainfalls.

Significant rainfall returned to the northern Middle Atlantic States during
August, but drought persisted in many areas south of the Mason-Dixon Line. A
noteworthy low-pressure system moved through the region on August 20-21,
producing locally excessive totals. In Atlantic City, NU, the storm dumped
13.52 inches in 19 hours, boosting their August rainfall to an ali-time-record
(for any month) 16.12 inches. Farther south, however, monthly rainfall totaled
only 1.41 inches in Richmond, VA and 1.01 inches in Raleigh-Durham, NC. An
August 16-17 heat wave aggravated the dryness, as temperatures soared into the
upper 90's to lower 100's across the affected areas. Farther west, hot weather
developed late in the month over the Intermountain West and spread onto the
Plains. On August 24 in North Dakota, highs peaked at daily-record levels of
100 degrees F at both Dickinson and Williston.

General Crop Comments: As August began, crop conditions declined in the Corn

: Belt, with scattered showers providing limited or no
relief from persistent dryness in an area extending from Missouri northeastward
to New York. However, below~normal temperatures in the area moderated the
stress somewhat and reduced evaporation rates. As the month progressed,
widespread rains brought relief to dry fields. Although continued below-normal
temperatures slowed crop development, corn and soybean progress remained ahead
of normal in the western Corn Belt. Progress in the eastern Corn Belt slowed to
near-normal levels. Above-normal temperatures in the Corn Belt and Plains the
last week of August provided much-needed heat and prompted rapid crop
development.

Despite starting the month moist, soils in the Southeast and Texas turned dry.
Condition of cotton, soybeans, peanuts, and other late-planted crops declined
due to iack of moisture. Cotton progress was behind normal in the Southeast,
but ahead of normal in the western cotton-producing States. Likewise, rice
fields in California progressed 2 weeks ahead of normal, while fields in the
Southeast developed and were harvested behind the average pace, Peanut harvest
was just underway late in the month.

Winter wheat harvest started late in the Northwest because of cool, wet weather
earlier in the spring. Once harvest started in Washington, it progressed
rapidly under clear skies. Harvest in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon was hampered
by showers and progressed behind the normal pace. Planting of the 1998 winter
wheat crop was just underway at month’s end. Spring wheat and barley harvest
started slowly at the beginning of the month, but very warm, dry weather over
the northern Plains allowed progress to surpass the average by the end of
August. Oat harvest progressed ahead of the normal pace for all of August.

Monsoonal moisture in the Rocky Mountains and central Plains provided adequate
moisture for sorghum fields. Fields developed ahead of normal in most major
sorghum-producing States, especially Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri. Mid-month
rainfall provided some relief from drought~like conditions in the mid-Atlantic
States, but may have come too late to save some crops.

Corn: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at

74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month, but up 1 percent from
1996. The September 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level stalk
count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-4 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and
United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

Area Harvested

: - 1,000 Acres -- Pounds ---
cT 3 2,260 2,250 1,679 1,572 3,524 3,795 3,538
FL : 7,500 7,700 2,680 2,500 17,676 20,100 19,250
GA : 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,000 84,000 113,620 88,000
IN : 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,000 13,601 14,972 17,800
KY : 195,700 221,100 2,021 1,934 328,581 395,542 427,650
MD 3 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 11,475 10,000 12,000
MA : 800 1,110 1,515 1,659 918 1,212 1,842
MO 1/ : 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 5,468 6,021 6,355
NC : 287,800 314,000 2,035 2,114 484,599 585,542 663,900
OH 3 8,000 9,500 1,580 1,740 15,015 12,640 16,530
PA z 7,800 7,600 1,983 2,001 15,685 15,464 15,210
sc > 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 105,000 117,810 121,500
TN : 54,560 57,670 2,014 1,831 92,907 109,888 105,602
VA : 48,370 51,270 2,141 2,065 81,269 103,543 105,898
wy 1/ : 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,600 2,040 3,240
wi : 2,900 2,750 1,774 2,130 6,220 5,145 5,858
us 732,690 794,750 2,071 2,031 1,268,538 1,517,334 1,614,173

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-21 NASS, USDA


Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

: 1,000 Pounds
Improved Varieties 1/

AL 7,000 9,000 4,000
AZ 2/ 17,000 17,000
AR 900 800 1,600
CA 2,900 1,300 2,800
PL 600 500 700
GA 62,000 86,000 85,000
LA 2,000 2,000 2,000
MS 1,200 1,300 2,600
NM : 45,000 22,000 42,000
NC 2 1,800 425 550
OK 2,500 500 3,000
sc 2,400 1,800 2,000
TX : 47,000 30,000 50,000
Us : 175,300 172,625 213,250
Native & Seedling
AL 3,000 5,000 4,000
AR 700 400 800
FPL 500 1,400 1,600
GA 2 13,000 14,000 15,000
KS : 500 200 3,500
LA 3 11,000 14,000 11,000
MS : 1,000 1,300 1,400
Nc 3 1,500 375 450
OK 3 16,500 1,500 15,000
sc : 1,100 700 1,000
TX 3 28,000 10,000 25,000
us 3 76,800 48,875 78,750
All Pecans :

AL 2 10,000 14,000 8,000
AZ 2/ : 17,000 17,000
AR 3 1,600 1,200 2,400
CA : 2,900 1,300 2,800
FL : 1,100 1,900 2,300
GA : 75,000 100,000 100,000
KS : 500 200 3,500
LA 3 13,000 16,000 13,000
MS 3 2,200 2,600 4,000
NM : 45,000 22,000 42,000
Nc : 3,300 800 1,000
OK : 19,000 2,000 18,000
sc 3 3,500 2,500 3,000
TX : 75,000 40,000 75,000
Oth Sts 3/ 2 15,900

us 268,000 221,500 292,000

1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.

2/ Estimates published separately beginning in 1996.

3/ AZ, MO, and TN in 1995. No breakdown between varieties available.
Forecasts discontinued in 1996 for MO and TN.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-27 NASS, USDA


\

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 (continued)

Area Harvested Yield Production

Class and Type

1,000 Pounds ---

Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air-cured

Type 35, One Sucker

Belt 2
KY : 2,100 2,200 2,340 2,300 4,914 5,060
TN 3 480 490 2,125 2,000 1,020 980
us 3 2,580 2,690 2,300 2,245 5,934 6,040
Type 36, Green River :
Belt :
KY : 1,200 1,200 2,180 2,350 2,616 2,820
Type 37, VA Sun-cured:
Belt :
VA : 70 70 1,600 1,400 112 98
Total 35-37 : 3,850 3,960 2,250 2,262 8,662 8,958

Class 4, Cigar Filler
Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA 2 4,600 4,600 2,040 2,100 9,384 9,660
Class 5, Cigar Binder :
Class 5A, CT Valley :

Binder :

Type 51, CT valley :

Broadleaf :
cT : 1,220 1,250 1,840 1,710 2,245 2,138
MA : 416 670 1,600 1,830 656 1,226
US : 1,630 1,920 1,780 1,752 2,901 3,364

Class 5B, WI Binder :
Type 54, Southern WI:

wi 3 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,300 3,610 4,370
Type 55, Northern WI:

WI : 1,000 850 1,535 1,750 1,535 1,488
Total 54-55 3 2,900 2,750 1,774 2,130 5,145 5,858
Total 51-55 : 4,530 4,670 1,776 1,975 8,046 9,222

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:
Type 61, CT valley:
Shade-grown :

cT : 1,040 1,000 1,490 1,400 1,550 1,400
MA 3 390 440 1,425 1,400 556 616
US : 1,430 1,440 1,473 1,400 2,106 2,016

All Cigar Types :
Total 41-61 + 10,560 10,710 1,850 1,951 19,536 20,898
All Tobacco 732,690 794,750 2,071 2,031 1,517,334 1,614,173

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-23 NASS, USDA


Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The September forecasted ear count per acre is
the highest on record, and if realized, would exceed the previous record final
ears per acre set in 1996. Ear measurements from the sample plots indicate a
length equal to last year but slightly less than the average. As of August 31,
42 percent of the acreage was reported dented in the 17 major States. This
compares with 32 percent last year and 40 percent for the five-year average.
Corn rated in the fair to good condition totaled 78 percent compared to

71 percent for a year ago.

In Iowa, forecasted stalk and ear populations are both at record levels when
compared to final counts. Ear length is equal to the average (1992-96) but
slightly above 1996. Forty~three percent of the corn was dented as of August 31,
compared to 18 percent in 1996 and the average of 33 percent. Corn condition
was 79 percent fair to good.

Forecasted stalk and ear counts are at a record high level for Illinois when
compared to final levels: Ear length is below last year and the 1992-96 time
period average. Fifty-four percent of the corn was dented compared to 33 percent
last year and 47 percent for the five-year average. Seventy-eight percent of the
corn was rated in fair to good condition.

Nebraska and Ohio stalk counts from objective yield data indicate record high
levels. Forecasted ear population is above the five-year average for both
States. Ear length in Nebraska is below 1996 but above the five-year average.
In Ohio, ear length is above 1996 but equal to the average for 1992-96. Corn
dented was ahead of the average in Nebraska but lagged behind the average in
Ohio. Corn dented in Nebraska was 41 percent by August 31, compared to

32 percent for 1996 and the average of 40 percent. Ohio corn was 17 percent
dented compared to 9 percent for last year and the average of 36 percent. In
Nebraska and Ohio 75 percent of the corn crop was rated in fair to good
condition.

In Minnesota, forecasted stalk counts are lower than 1996 but higher than the
average. The forecasted ear population is above the five-year average. Ear
length is above last year and the average. The corn dented in Minnesota was at
25 percent compared to 12 percent for last year and the average of 24 percent.
The majority (75 percent) of corn in Minnesota was rated in good to excellent
condition.

Forecasted stalk and ear counts in Indiana and Wisconsin are above the five-year
average. Ear length is above last year and the average in Wisconsin but below
last year and the average in Indiana. Thirty-seven percent of the corn in
Indiana was dented compared to 28 percent in 1996 and the average of 42 percent.
In Wisconsin, 8 percent of the corn was dented compared to 11 percent in 1996
and the average of 22 percent. The majority (78 percent) of corn in Indiana was
rated in fair to good condition. In Wisconsin, 84 percent of the corn was rated
in good to excellent condition.

Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 653 million bushels, 4 percent
above the August forecast but 19 percent below the 1996

total. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at

9.51 million acres, down 20 percent from the previous year. The forecasted

yield, at 68.7 bushels per acre, was up 2.5 bushels from last month and

1.2 bushels above 1996.

Timely August rains in the major sorghum producing areas helped improve
conditions and boost expected yields. The crop was rated in mostly good to fair
condition as of August 31. Coloring was seven points ahead of normal at

58 percent, but maturity was four points behind the five-year average. Half of
the twelve September forecast States showed yield increases from August with
Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado showing the largest increases. Louisiana was the
only State to show a decline from August, dropping three bushels per acre.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-5 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal
Group, State, and United States, 1995-97

:  ~ 1,000 Acres - ---- Cwt --- -- 1,000 Cwt ------
Winter 1i/ 2
CA : 5.7 6.6 250 245 1,300 1,425 1,617
FL : 8.8 8.8 210 175 1,173 1,848 1,540
Total 3 14.5 15.4 226 205 2,473 3,273 3,157
Spring 1/ :
AL 3 1.9 1.5 160 175 400 304 263
AZ : 9.0 6.2 275 275 1,755 2,475 1,705
CA : 20.1 18.6 375 385 6,230 7,538 7,161
FL 2 35.5 35.3 219 215 7,830 7,765 7,591
Hastings 2 27.5 26.5 230 230 5,940 6,325 6,095
Other FL 3 8.0 8.8 180 170 1,890 1,440 1,496
Nc : 17.0 16.5 190 195 3,053 3,230 3,218
TX 6.5 8.0 170 195 925 1,105 1,560
Total 3 90.0 86.1 249 250 20,193 22,417 21,498
Summer 2/
AL 3 6.7 5.9 150 150 1,139 1,005 885
CA 5.8 5.9 360 360 1,760 2,088 2,124
co ¢ 9.8 7.6 345 350 2,776 3,381 2,660
DE : 5.2 4.2 240 220 1,475 1,248 924
IL 3 6.0 4.6 275 280 1,485 1,650 1,288
IA 1/ 1.5 1.2 210 190 240 315 228
MD 3 2.6 3.4 215 260 360 559 884
MO : 7.1 5.8 230 250 1,587 1,633 1,450
NE 5.5 4.3 270 350 1,254 1,485 1,505
No 2.5 2.3 265 245 702 663 564
NM 3.9 4.4 360 320 1,344 1,404 1,408
Nc 1/ 2 1.2 1.2 90 95 124 108 114
TX : 9.5 7.7 240 245 1,645 2,280 1,887
VA 7.5 7.5 225 180 2,040 1,688 1,350
Total 74.8 66.0 261 262 17,931 19,507 17,272
See footnotes at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1997 A-18 NASS, USDA


U.S. Corn Production

1988 - 1997
Billion Bushels

11.00

10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00

6.00

5.00

4 1 1 i 1 J i L 1
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year

4.00

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

Area Harvested Yield Production

: 1,000 Acres = --~--- -- 1,000 Bushels --

AL 1s: 10 9 55.0 60.0 60.0 550 540

AR : 220 150 74.0 70.0 70.0 16,280 10,500
co : 260 160 51.0 35.0 40.0 13,260 6,400
GA 1/ : 40 40 41.0 46.0 46.0 1,640 1,840
Th : 220 150 84.0 82.0 82.0 18,480 12,300
KS : 4,600 3,550 77.0 70.0 75.0 354,200 266,250
KY 1/ : 23 13 92.0 75.0 75.0 2,116 975
LA 2 153 107 76.0 75.0 72.0 11,628 7,704
MS 3 72 33 70.0 65.0 65.0 5,040 2,145
MO : 580 A30 91.0 78.0 85.0 52,780 36,550
NE : 1,030 800 95.0 90.0 90.0 97,850 72,000
NM 3 225 230 33.0 42.0 45.0 7,425 10,350
Nc 1/ : 10 11 57.0 49.0 49.0 570 539
OK : 490 490 59.0 54.0 57.0 28,910 27,930
sc 1/ : 5 4 50.0 50.0 50.0 250 200
sD : 145 170 55.0 55.0 58.0 7,975 9,860
TN i/ z 18 15 90.0 85.0 85.0 1,620 1,275
TX : 3,800 3,150 48.0 59.0 59.0 182,400 185,850

11,901 9,512 67.5 66.2 68.7 802,974 653,208

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-10 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM PALMER)
~ August 30, 1997 UPDATED BIWEEKLY
y *
Mast
/MOIST | a
SEVERE}
=~
'
/
Ly
‘MODERATE. >.
Bae
MOIST] @)
{9
ie
,
=
SEVERE
~
L_ NOWUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY ers cn praininery reports
Drought Severity
Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal

dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-2 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Pods with Beans

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting soybean objective
yield surveys in 8 States during 1997. Plots are randomly selected from a
scientifically drawn sample of soybean fields, which are visited monthly
from August through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements.
Sample data and the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the
following table are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates but
are intended to show trends in soybean production practices.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet
Selected States, 1993 - 1997 1/

AR Sept 2/: NA NA NA NA NA
Nov : 1,399 1,782 1,755 21,521
Final : 1,327 1,673 1,609 1,481

IL Sept : 1,937 1,745 1,816 1,505 1,828
Nov : 1,712 1,639 1,764 1,573
Final : 1,701 1,636 1,764 1,581

IN Sept : 1,938 1,850 1,755 1,416 1,622
Nov + 1,703 1,574 1,677 1,470
Final + 1,703 1,570 1,677 1,457

IA Sept : 1,336 1,887 1,739 1,654 1,889
Nov : 1,340 1,820 1,611 1,463
Final : 1,340 1,820 1,616 1,463

MN Sept; 1,037 1,678 1,613 1,543 1,585
Nov > 1,106 1,496 1,504 1,487
Final : 1,105 1,496 1,501 1,487

MO Sept: 1,493 1,470 895 1,491 1,539
Nov 2 1,727 1,643 1,462 1,688
Final : 1,699 1,659 1,469 1,655

NE Sept: 1,469 1,676 1,404 1,715 1,716
Nov > 4,414 1,826 1,420 1,514
Final : 1,445 1,826 1,420 1,514

1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ Not available due to plant immaturity.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A~30 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997
(Metric Units)

Hectares
Corn 32,167,590 32,467,060 29,601,860 29,966,890
Sorghum : 5,337,050 4,155,360 4,816,220 3,849,410
Barley 2,903,250 2,739,350 2,746,630 2,588,800
All Wheat 30,610,350 28,638,700 25,434,770 25,695,790
Durum 1,464,980 1,323,340 1,435,030 1,298,250
Other Spring 8,108,370 7,751,840 7,929,900 7,569,320
Rice 1,140,820 1,240,370 1,132,730 1,229,040
Soybeans 25,983,120 28,672,290 25,660,990 28,253,840
Peanuts 2/ 567,170 568,180 558,470 560,290
All Cotton 5,922,030 5,627,210 5,207,590 5,437,620
Upland 5,817,620 5,526,040 5,104,030 5,336,850
Amer-Pima 104,410 101,170 103,560 100,770
Potatoes
Summer 3/ 31,610 27,880 30,270 26,710
Fall 3/ 513,920 485,060 504,530 478,140
Total 3/ : 589,190 554,750 577,090 545,930
Tobacco 296,510 321,630
Sugarbeets 553,780 592,790 535,530 579,920
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed 359,730 370,290

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.
2/ 1997 area planted revised.
3/ 1996 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97
(Metric Units)

Area Planted

Hectares

Oats : 1,886,260 2,130,290 1,087,400 1,303,910
Winter Wheat 21,037,000 19,563,520 16,069,840 16,828,220
Rye 593,680 583,970 140,430 145,280
Sunflower 1,034,390 1,181,690 1,011,320 1,135,960
Flaxseed 38,850 61,510 37,230 59,080
All Hay 24,697,830 24,607,980

Alfalfa 9,830,320 9,532,880

All Other 14,867,500 15,075,110
Dry Edible Beans 733,700 774,416 695,140 708,250
Potatoes

Winter 5,870 6,310 5,870 6,230

Spring 37,800 35,490 36,420 34,840
Sweetpotatoes 36,060 35,530 34,320 34,280
Hops 17,870 17,790
Ginger Root (HI) 80 110

1/ | Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

United States,

1996

(Metric Units)

Yield per Acre and Production,

-97

Oats
Winter Wheat
All Hay

Alfalfa

All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Potatoes

Winter

Spring
Hops
Ginger Root (HI)
Apples, Comm'l
Peaches
Pears
Grapes
Sweet Cherries
Tart Cherries
Apricots
Olives (CA)
Dried Prunes (CA)
Prunes and Plums

(excl CA)
Almonds (CA)
Pistachios (CA)
Hazelnuts
Walnuts (CA)

: 25.29
: 27.92
z 1.90
53.25

2.08
3.00
5.67
7.41
4.58
1.87

22.99
27.99

1.88
49.91

Metric Tons

2,253,080
40,225,870
135,585,110
72,009,600
63,575,510
1,240,760

148,460
1,016,820

4,696,950
939,070
744,570

5,033,240
139,980
122,610

72,390
150,590
199,580

18,140
231,330
47,630
16,780
188,690

2,716,140
50,497,730
139,603,030
70,594,390
69,008,640
1,322,810

143,200

1,199,250
925,100
6,027,650
173,500
109,860
119,750
86,180
195,040

25,760
308,440

1/ Estimates for current

Crop Production
September 1997

year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal
Group, State, and United States, 1995-97 (continued)
Seasonal Group Area Harvested Yield : Production
and

State
- 1,000 Acres ~ 1,000 cwt
Fall i/ 2/ 3/  :

CA : 11.5 10.5 400 5,330 4,600
co 3 77.8 76.8 375 23,808 29,175
ID : 413.0 388.0 346 132,657 142,800
10 SW Co : 28.0 27.0 425 11,340 11,900
Other ID : 385.0 361.0 340 121,317 130,900
IN 5.2 5.2 260 1,196 1,352
ME 77.0 73.0 275 17,160 21,175
MA 3 2.6 2.7 260 858 676
MI : 46.0 47.5 300 16,350 13,800
MN 3 82.0 75.0 300 20,790 24,600
MT 315 2,940 3,213
NE 355 3,680 4,402
NV 400 2,774 3,160
NM 400 2,394 2,560
NY 280 7,695 7,980
ND 220 25,410 28,820
OH 250 1,404 1,275
OR 494 24,788 30,124
Malheur 400 4,992 5,320
Other OR 520 19,796 24,804
PA 255 4,080 4,208
RI 270 243 192
sD 280 988 1,344
UT 280 1,224 1,176
WA 590 80,850 94,990
wi 390 26,000 31,590
wy 280 390 224
Total 364 403,009 453,436
us 350 443,606 498,633

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ 1996 revised.

3/ Estimates for 1997 yield and production for fall potatoes will be
published November 10, 1997.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-19 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

: 1,000 Acres Bushels -- -- 1,000 Bushels -~
AL : 280 260 82.0 92.0 95.0 22,960 24,700
AZ i/ Hy 40 45 175.0 175.0 175.0 7,000 7,875
AR 1/: 230 170 125.0 110.0 110.0 28,750 18,700
CA : 220 260 160.0 170.0 165.0 35,200 42,900
co : 940 1,030 142.0 148.0 148.0 133,480 152,440
cr 2/_:
DE : 150 146 143.0 100.0 100.0 21,450 14,600
FLI/ oo: 112 80 88.0 100.0 100.0 9,856 8,000
GA : 525 500 95.0 107.0 110.0 49,875 55,000
IDi/ oo: 40 40 135.0 145.0 145.0 5,400 5,800
IL : 10,800 11,000 136.0 127.0 127.0 1,468,800 1,397,000
IN : §,450 5,850 123.0 127.0 122.0 670,350 713,700
IA : 12,450 11,950 138.0 140.0 140.0 1,718,100 1,673,000
KS : 2,350 2,700 152.0 130.0 130.0 357,200 351,000
KY : 1,200 1,220 124.0 108.0 108.0 148,800 131,760
LA l/s: 523 490 125.0 115.0 115.0 65,375 56,350
ME 2/ :
MD : 465 450 139.0 85.0 80.0 64,635 36,000
MA 2/ :
MI : 2,300 2,300 94.0 110.0 110.0 216,200 253,000
MN : 6,950 6,450 125.0 130.0 130.0 868,750 838,500
MS 1/: 605 470 102.0 105.0 105.0 61,710 49,350
MO : 2,650 2,850 134.0 108.0 112.0 355,100 319,200
MT 1/ 3 15 15 137.0 130.0 130.0 2,055 1,950
NE : 8,300 8,800 143.0 133.0 133.0 1,186,900 1,170,400
NH 2/0:
NI 1/ : 94 102 126.0 95.0 95.0 11,844 9,690
NM1/: 84 85 175.0 170.0 170.0 14,700 14,450
NY : 630 660 107.0 118.0 116.0 67,410 76,560
NC : 900 900 95.0 85.0 85.0 85,500 76,500
ND : 720 650 91.0 95.0 95.0 65,520 61,750
OH : 2,750 3,450 111.0 130.0 130.0 305,250 448,500
OK 1s: 170 180 145.0 150.0 150.0 24,650 27,000
oR 1/ 33 20 165.0 185.0 185.0 5,445 3,700
PA : 1,070 1,120 119.0 85.0 85.0 127,330 95,200
RI 2/.:
sc : 380 335 79.0 95.0 100.0 30,020 33,500
sD : 3,700 3,350 100.0 95.0 100.0 370,000 335,000
TN : 680 650 116.0 105.0 105.0 78,880 68,250
TX : 1,800 1,800 112.0 135.0 135.0 201,600 243,000
urls: 21 21 130.0 125.0 125.0 2,730 2,625
VT 2/
VA 310 340 126.0 83.0 83.0 39,060 28,220
WA 1/ 120 110 185.0 190.0 190.0 22,200 20,900
wy 1/ 40 45 105.0 95.0 95.0 4,200 4,275
WI 3,000 3,100 111.0 128.0 126.0 333,000 390,600
wy 1/ 50 55 123.0 122.0 122.0 6,150 6,710
us 73,147 74,049 127.1 125.3 125.2 9,293,435 9,267,655

i/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-3 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and
United States, 1995~96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997 1/

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres -- - 1,000 Tons

CA : 82.0 102.0 29.5 28.0 3,192 2,419 2,856
co 3 51.1 67.0 20.2 21.4 715 1,032 1,434
ID : 184.0 196.0 24.8 25.2 4,728 4,563 4,939
MI H] 130.0 160.0 15.1 19.0 2,970 1,963 3,040
MN : 438.0 445.0 18.2 17.9 7,434 7,971 7,966
MT : 57.5 58.5 22.6 21.2 1,193 1,300 1,240
NE : 51.2 59.7 17.8 19.3 1,186 913 1,152
NM 3 0.9 1.6 29.8 23.5 27 38
ND 3 225.3 230.0 18.7 17.5 3,929 4,213 4,025
OH : 4.6 0.9 18.8 18.9 230 86 17
OR : 16.3 17.1 25.5 25.5 404 416 436
TX : 12.6 16.0 19.2 21.0 351 242 336
WA : 13.0 18.2 35.5 36.2 461 659
wy 1 56.8 61.0 18.9 20.0 1,249 1,074 1,220
oth :

Sts 2/  : 484

us 1,433.0 20.2 20.5 28,065 26,680 29,358

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA prior to 1996.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

2 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- 000 wae nnnne 1,000 Tons --------
FL : 438.0 438.0 33.1 34.0 15,122 14,498 14,892
HI 3 46.0 35.0 79.1 82.0 4,070 3,639 2,870
LA > 370.0 410.0 27.9 27.0 10,240 10,323 11,070
TX : 34.9 32.0 28.7 26.0 1,364 1,002 832
Us 888.9 915.0 33.1 32.4 30,796 29,462 29,664

1/ Net tons.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-25 NASS, USDA


NY) National

Crop Cole
Production usps

Service
Washington, D.C.

scaanar -yeeummmer weeny" rrr wer wees rtm rn ee pene “plac “co o-F-<em a ea anm aFe ne—rem aa ~enemnaracer or epee remmemn—sl
Released September 12, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on “Crop Production” call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 pm. ET. Forecasts refer to September 1, 1997, Index and report
features are located at the end of this report.

Corn and Soybean Production Virtually Unchanged
Cotton Production Up 4 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 9.27 billion bushels, virtually unchanged from
last month and 1996. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected
to average 125.2 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month and

1.9 busheis from 1996. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is
forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month. Yield prospects in
Indiana and Wisconsin decreased. Forecasted yields in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota,
Nebraska, and Ohio were unchanged.

All cotton production is forecast at 18.4 million ‘bales, up 4 percent from
August, but down 3 percent from 1996. This is the fourth largest crop on
record, Yield is expected to average 658 pounds per acre, down 49 pounds from
last year. The dryland crop in the Plains of Texas received rain during the
month, and Texas’ production was increased 400,000 bales. Cotton conditions
also improved in Arkansas and Mississippi, which showed increases of

110,000 bales and 80,000 bales respectively.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.75 billion bushels, up fractionally from the
August 1 forecast and up 15 percent from 1996. Yield is unchanged from last
month at 39.3 bushels per acre, but 1.7 bushels above last year. Estimated area
for harvest remains unchanged from the August 1 estimate of 69.8 million acres.

All wheat production is placed at 2.51 billion bushels, down 1 percent from

the last forecast, but 10 percent more than in 1996. The U.S. yield is now
forecast at 39.5 bushels per acre. This is 0.4 bushels less than last month, but
equals the record high yield.

Cr Pr 2-2 (9-97)


Report Features

The next "Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on

October 10, 1997.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843

Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Rhonda Brandt- Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621

Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526

Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt ~- Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Howard Hill ~ Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,

Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235

Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215
Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,

Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270

Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1997 B-17 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

Area Harvested : Production

1,000 Bushels --~
AL 1/ : 80 110 44.0 35.0 35.0 3,520 3,850
AZ 1/ : 178 98 90.4 92.3 92.3 16,090 9,042
AR 1/ : 1,240 790 54.0 45.0 45.0 66,960 35,550
cA 1/ : 688 510 75.2 80.1 80.1 51,750 40,850
co 1/ 1 2,268 2,912 33.3 34.0 34.0 75,500 99,010
DE 1/ : 78 i 53.0 55.0 55.0 4,134 4,235
FL 1/ : 10 15 38.0 39.0 39.0 380 585
GA 1/ : 350 360 48.0 44.0 44.0 16,800 15,840
ID : 1,560 1,430 76.4 77.3 77:3 119,200 110,480
IL 1/ > 1,100 1,150 38.0 60.0 60.0 41,800 69,000
IN i/ 2 720 640 38.0 57.0 57.0 27,360 36,480
IA 1/ : AS 25 35.0 38.0 38.0 1,575 950
KS 1/ > 8,800 10,700 23.0 46.9 46.0 255,200 432,200
KY 1/ : 530 500 53.0 55.0 55.0 28,090 27,500
LA 1/ 3 130 145 43.0 38.0 38.0 5,590 5,510
MD 1/ 3 227 215 52.0 60.0 60.0 11,804 12,900
MI 1/ 3 630 540 38.0 61.0 61.0 23,940 32,940
MN : 2,442 2,405 41.9 35.0 33.0 102,382 79,480
MS 1/ 3 230 190 49.0 42.0 42.0 11,270 7,980
MO 1/ + 1,250 1,040 39.0 57.0 57.0 48,750 59,280
MT : 6,350 6,010 27.8 30.2 30.8 176,710 185,050
NE 1/ > 2,100 1,900 35.0 37.0 37.0 73,500 70,300
NV 1/ 3 19 17 86.8 96.5 96.5 1,650 1,640
NJ 1/ 3 38 34 46.0 44.0 44.0 1,748 1,496
NM 1/ : 110 300 37.0 34.0 34.0 4,070 10,200
NY 1/ 3 150 135 43.0 52.0 52.0 6,450 7,020
NC i/ : 590 670 44.0 52.0 52.0 25,960 34,840
ND : 12,515 11,188 31.6 26.0 24.5 395,130 274,438
OH 1/ > 1,330 1,060 39.0 62.0 62.0 51,870 65,720
OK 1/ > 4,900 5,400 19.0 33.0 33.0 93,100 178,200
OR 1/ 2 955 965 70.8 69.0 69.0 67,605 66,550
PA 1/ : 190 175 48.0 52.0 52.0 9,120 9,100
sc 1/ z 270 305 45.0 50.0 50.0 12,150 15,250
sD : 3,854 3,574 36.1 31.6 29.6 139,270 105,898
TN 1/ 2 400 370 44.0 43.0 43.0 17,600 15,910
TX 1/ : 2,900 4,100 26.0 29.0 29.0 75,400 118,900
ur 1/ : 188 189 41.3 45.8 45.8 7,760 8,650
VA 1/ 3 275 255 53.0 60.0 60.0 14,575 15,300
WA : 2,745 2,595 66.5 62.4 62.9 182,670 163,335
wy 1/ 11 9 45.0 45.0 45.0 495 405
WI 1/ 135 142 42.4 51.2 51.2 5,725 7,265
wy 1/ 269 250 26.4 32.2 32.2 7,110 8,040
us 62,850 63,495 36.3 39.9 39.5 2,281,763 2,507,169

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-12 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

: Area Harvested Production

State : :
1996 1997
: 1,000 Acres Bushels -~
AZ 1/ H 54 69 105.0 109.0 109.0 5,670 7,521
CA 1/ 3 220 180 60.0 65.0 65.0 13,200 11,700
co : 92 90 108.0 115.0 115.0 9,936 10,350
DE 1/ 3 23 35 68.0 79.0 79.0 1,564 2,765
ID : 730 760 73.0 74.0 74.0 53,290 56,240
KS 1/ : a1 9 33.0 45.0 45.0 363 405
KY 1/ 3 20 14 74.0 70.0 70.0 1,480 980
MD 1/ 3 49 50 61.0 77.0 77.0 2,989 3,850
MI 1/ z 25 22 48.0 57.0 57.0 1,200 1,254
MN : 520 570 64.0 57.0 55.0 33,280 31,350
MT : 1,200 1,200 43.0 54.0 54.0 51,600 64,800
NE 1/ : 17 8 53.0 56.0 56.0 901 448
NV l/ 3 5 5 75.0 90.0 90.0 375 450
No 1/ H 3 4 60.0 75.0 75.0 180 300
ne l/ 3 20 20 65.0 71.0 71.0 1,300 1,420
ND : 2,600 2,200 55.0 47.0 47.0 143,000 103,400
OK 1/ : 3 8 23.0 39.0 39.0 69 312
OR 3 150 120 64.0 69.0 69.0 9,600 8,280
PA 1/ : 75 75 67.0 69.0 69.0 5,025 5,175
se 1/ : 4 3 50.0 60.0 60.0 200 180
sD : 145 115 44.0 44.0 40.0 6,380 4,600
TX 1/ 3 il 5 34.0 49.0 49.0 374 245
UT : 100 95 82.0 90.0 90.0 8,200 8,550
VA 1/ : 75 65 68.0 80.0 80.0 5,100 5,200
WA 3 440 490 62.0 70.0 72.0 27,280 35,280
WI 2 75 65 53.0 60.0 60.0 3,975 3,900
wy : 120 120 86.0 87.0 87.0 10,320 10,440
us 2 6,787 6,397 58.5 59.4 59.3 396,851 379,395
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1997 A-11 NASS, USDA


to 78.8 million pounds. Alabama and Louisiana were the only states to report
smaller expected production this year than last year. Arizona and Georgia expect
the same size crops as 1996.

Georgia‘’s production is set at 100 million pounds, the same as last year. After
a heavy nut set, recent dry conditions have lowered potential production.
Diseases and insects have also been difficult to control. The Texas forecast is
75.0 million pounds, 88 percent above last year. This level represents the good
growing season, while accounting for loss due to a late spring freeze. Reduced
insect damage and the wet spring provided sufficient moisture for the native
trees to increase their share of the crop from 25 percent to 33 percent. New
Mexico expects 42.0 million pounds, 91 percent more than last year’s reduced
crop. Nut drop was average during August. The crop has remained in mostly good
condition throughout the summer with an adequate supply of irrigation water and
minimal insect problems.

Oklahoma forecasts 18.0 million pounds of pecans, compared with the 2.00 million
pounds produced last year. Weather has been ideal with a mild summer and above
average rainfall during August. Arizona is forecast at 17.0 million pounds, the
same as last year. Louisiana’s pecan crop is expected to reach 13.0 million
pounds, 19 percent below the previous year. Disease pressures have been normal
to moderate. Moisture shortages could still affect final production. Alabama
expects a 1997 crop of 8.00 million pounds. Heavy rains and high winds from
Hurricane Danny caused considerable damage. An extremely dry August caused
additional nuts to drop prematurely. Scab infestations have also taken a toll.

Mississippi production is forecast at 4.00 million pounds. Pecan tree regrowth,
from the devastating ice storms of 1993-1994, is promising. Kansas, at

3.50 million pounds, is expecting a good crop due to favorable weather. South
Carolina’s forecast is 3.00 million pounds, 20 percent over last year.
California is recording a 115 percent increase, from 1.30 million last year to
2.80 million for 1997. Arkansas is expecting to double last year’s output,
coming in at 2.40 million. Florida, at 2.30 million, will be 21 percent over
1996. North Carolina is up marginally to 1.00 million pounds. The two
hurricanes in 1996 have impacted the 1997 production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-13 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5~foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-i NASS, USDA


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color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape,
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To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or cal} 1-800-245-6340
(voice) or 202-720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer.

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-18 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield
surveys in 5 States which account for about 63 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton
production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton
fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1
through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts
shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not
official estimates of NASS.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September 1993-1997, and
November and Final, 1993-1996 1/

1993 662 661 697 619 608
1994 747 748 864 761 760
1995 615 615 682 607 607
1996 659 655 623 816 770 741
1997 637 906

1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls
(at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs,
per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-31 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:
1996 and Forecasted September 1,
(Metric Units)

Crop

Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1997

Aug 1,
1997

Metric Tons

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Barley
All Wheat
Durum
Other Spring
Rice
Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts
All Cotton
Upland
Amer~-Pima
Cottonseed
Potatoes
Summer 1/ 2/
Fall 1/
Total 1/
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed
Pecans

1/ 1996 revised.

2/ August estimate carried

Crop Production
September 1997

7.97
4.23
3.15
2.44
2.20
2.36
6.86
2.53
2.97

+79

+79
1.11

29.23
40.77
39.19

2.32
45.20

74.30

7.86
4.31
3.19
2.66
1.89
2.02
6.70
2.64
2.96

74

73
1.18

29.33

236,064,120
20,396,480
8,640,410
62,099,410
3,152,650
18,720,890
7,770,990
64,837,320
1,660,690
4,124,140
4,009,070
115,070
6,480,470

884,820
20,567,510
22,617,610

688,250
24,203,690

26,727,480
99,290

forward from July 1.

235,617,950
15,984,930
8,273,850
68,869, 860
2,453,620
15,918,510
8,256,920
74,691,720
1,723,750
3,871,680
3,751,060
120,620
6,163,230

744,710
737,690
26,932,500

26,803,680

235,409,280
16,592,250
8,260,350
68,233,960
2,453,620
15,282,610
8,230,660
74,730,910
1,659,480
4,009,940
3,891,500
118,440
6,398,190

783,400
732,180
26,633,130

26,910,730
132,450

Agricultural Statistics Board

WASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

Area Harvested 3 Yield : Production

Class and Type

Pounds -- ~- 1,000 Pounds --

Class 1, Flue-cured :

Type 11, old Belts

Nc > 76,000 86,000 2,120 2,050 161,120 176,300
VA : 37,700 40,000 2,235 2,150 84,260 86,000
113,700 126,000 2,158 2,082 245,380 262,300
Type 12, Eastern NC

167,000 181,000 2,025 2,150 338,175 389,150
Type 13, NC Border &

NC 37,000 38,000 1,980 2,200 73,260 83,600

sc 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 117,810 121,500

us 88,000 92,000 2,171 2,229 191,070 205,100
Type 14, GA-FL Belt

FL 7,500 7,700 2,680 2,500 20,100 19,250

GA 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,000 113,620 88,000

US 53,500 51,700 2,499 2,074 133,720 107,250
Total 11-14 422,200 450,700 2,151 2,138 908,345 963,800

Class 2, Fire-cured
Type 21, VA Belt :

VA 1,100 1,200 1,580 1,500 1,738 1,800
Type 22, Eastern
District
KY 3,800 3,900 2,720 2,500 10,336 9,750
TN 7,500 7,600 2,550 2,300 19,125 17,480
us 11,300 11,500 2,607 2,368 29,461 27,230
Type 23, Western
District
KY 3,600 3,800 3,160 2,900 11,376 11,020
TN 580 580 2,850 2,400 1,653 1,392
US 4,180 4,380 3,117 2,834 13,029 12,412
Total 21-23 16,580 17,080 2,668 2,426 44,228 41,442
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-cured
Type 31, Burley
IN 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,000 14,972 17,800
KY 185,000 210,000 1,980 1,900 366,300 399,000
MO 1/ 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 6,021 6,355
NC 7,800 9,000 1,665 1,650 12,987 14,850
OH 8,000 9,500 1,580 1,740 12,640 16,530
TN 46,000 49,000 1,915 1,750 88,090 85,750
VA 9,500 10,000 1,835 1,800 17,433 18,000
wy i/ 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,040 3,240
us 268,300 301,300 1,940 1,864 520,483 561,525

Type 32, Southern MD
Belt

MD : 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 10,000 12,000
PA 3,200 3,000 1,900 1,850 6,080 5,550
US 11,200 11,000 1,436 1,595 16,080 17,550

279,500 312,300 536,563 579,075

Total 31-32

~-continued

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-22 NASS, USDA


Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 533 million pounds, 7 percent
below last month and 9 percent below last year's crop. Yield per harvested acre
in the region, at 2,731 pounds, is 188 pounds per acre below last year's final
average. Cool weather early in the growing season slowed crop development
followed by a hot, dry summer contributed to decreased crop prospects in the
Virginia-North Carolina area. Growers are hoping for a repeat of last year’s
near-perfect fall conditions to improve yields.

The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected
to total 1.03 billion pounds, down 3 percent from last month but 12 percent
above 1996. Yields in the tri-state area are expected to average 2,649 pounds
per acre, 35 pounds below last month, 105 pounds above last year, and 626 pounds
above 1995. New Mexico producers reported excellent crop prospects with no
disease problems and adequate soil moisture. Yield prospects in Oklahoma
remained unchanged from a month ago.as the crop continues to make good progress.
In Texas, favorable weather and increased plantings have propelled production to
record levels. Fields in the Plains were approaching maturity under hot, dry
conditions. Beneficial rains during August improved crop condition in Central
and South Central Texas.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.2 million acres, is up

27,000 acres from last month, and up 5 percent from last year.
American-Pima harvested acreage is unchanged from August, at 249,000 acres,
but down 3 percent from 1996.

Texas’ High Plains cotton benefitted from rainfall received during early August,
but cooler than normal temperatures limited that development. In mid-August,
warm temperatures returned and bolls in the Blacklands and central areas began
opening rapidly. Harvest in the Coastal Bend, Upper Coast, and Rio Grande
Valley proceeded in late August with no weather related delays. In early
September, harvest in the Valley neared completion. In mid-August, 93 percent
of Texas’ acreage was setting bolls, 10 points ahead of the 5-year average. On
September 7, Texas boll opening was at 28 percent, 3 points behind the 5-year
average. Crop condition in Texas in early September showed 60 percent rated
good to excellent and 30 percent in fair condition. Objective yield survey data
indicate Texas’ large boll counts are the third highest during the past

10 years, and small bolis and squares rank fourth and fifth, respectively, for
the same period. The Oklahoma crop is showing excellent potential as a result
of the beneficial weather in August, despite the boll weevil infestations.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated their cotton mostly in fair to good condition on September 7, although
Mississippi rated 62 percent of their acreage in good to excellent condition,
and Tennessee reported 65 percent of their crop as good to excellent.
Missouri‘s crop began the month showing only 30 percent rated in good to
excellent condition, but on September 7, showed 48 percent in these two
categories. Boll setting in this region was slightly ahead of average in
mid-August, although Tennessee’s boll set was slightly behind the average pace.
Boll opening was well behind average in this region. Mississippi’s crop was

36 percent opened, 30 points behind the average and Arkansas was 15 points
behind normal, with 21 percent of the bolls open. Tennessee’s crop was

11 percent opened, compared to the 5-year average of 39 percent. Data from
cotton objective yield plots show Arkansas has the fifth highest count of large
bolls since 1987, and small bolls rank second, but squares are the third lowest.
Mississippi's large bolls are the sixth highest in the past 10 years, and small
bolls and squares rank third and sixth, respectively. Louisiana ranks last in
large boll counts during the previous 10 years, and small boll and square counts
rank sixth and ninth, respectively, since 1987.

Eighty-nine percent of Arizona's crop was in good to excellent condition and
90 percent of bolls were opening in early September, which equaled the 5-year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-8 NASS, USDA


average. In late August, defoliation was active in Arizona’s western area and
harvest had begun. Cotton development in California remained ahead of average,
with 80 percent of the crop showing open bolls compared to an average pace of
59 percent, All of the acreage was in good to excellent condition on September
7. The California crop showed minimal signs of stress following the high
temperatures of early August, and growers continued to spray for aphids, lygus,
mites, worms, and whitefly. Some California fields received the final
irrigation, and defoliation began in southern Kern county and was active in the
Desert areas. Objective yield survey counts for California indicate the third
lowest count of large bolls during the past 10 years, while small bolls are next
to lowest and square counts are the lowest during the same time period.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina}, the crop’s condition was at least 50 percent good to excellent,
except for Alabama, which rated 22 percent in good condition and only 1 percent
as excellent, on September 7. States in this region saw a decline in condition.
The dry, cool conditions during much of the growing season caused boll set to
remain behind average for all States in the region. In mid-August, Alabama’s
boll set was 7 points less than the 5-year average and South Carolina's acreage
was 17 points behind the normal pace. Boll opening was also behind normal for
these States with Georgia showing bolls opening on 24 percent of the acreage,
North Carolina with 15 percent, and Alabama at 22 percent.

The American-Pima production forecast, at 544,000 bales, is up 3 percent from
1996's output, but down 10,000 bales from August. The U.S. yield is indicated
at 1,049 pounds per harvested acre, up 58 pounds from last year. California was
the only State with a change in production from the August forecast, and their
yield was lowered 26 pounds from last month. The crop development in California
remained at least two weeks ahead of normal, and insect pressure was very light
this year. In Arizona, defoliation was active in the Western areas, and central
area growers are finishing with irrigation for the season. In Texas, the crop
continued making good progress.

Ginnings totaled 365,900 running bales prior to September 1, compared with
342,400 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 433,000 running
bales in 1995.

Summer Potatoes: The final forecast of 1997 summer potato production is

17.3 million cwt, up 5 percent from the July forecast but
1i percent below a year ago. Harvested area is estimated at 66,000 acres,
12 percent below last year and 7 percent below two years ago. The average yield
of 262 cwt per acre gained 10 cwt from the July report on the strength of better
yields in the Midwest and is 1 cwt above last year.

Yields are better than last year in most of the Midwest and Central States.
Colorado and Nebraska yields are record high, although Colorado harvest was
interrupted in August by heavy rains. Texas’ yields are higher than anticipated
in July. Harvest in Missouri is nearly finished, with yields above last year.
Digging is completed in California after a good growing season.

Dry weather cut yields along the Central Atlantic Coast. New Jersey and
Delaware yields dropped 20 cwt from last year. Virginia yields fell 45 cwt as
harvest came early and from mostly dry soils. Maryland yields increased,
however, with extensive use of irrigation. Alabama yields varied with the
timing of showers during the growing season.

Fall Potatoes, 1996 Final: Production of 1996 fall potatoes is finalized at a
record large 453 million cwt, up 13 percent from

1995 and 7 percent above the previous record in 1994. Farmers harvested

1.25 million acres, up 3 percent from the previous two years. The average yield

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-9 NASS, USDA


corn: Plant Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
surveys in 7 States during 1997. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts
and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey
and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are
intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Plant population per acre,
Selected States, 1993-97 1/

Number of Plants

IL sep 23,400 23,300 24,000 24,350 25,000
Nov : 23,300 23,200 23,650 24,200

IN Sep : 23,300 22,800 23,900 23,550 23,700
Nov : 23,200 22,850 24,000 23,500

IA sep: 23,700 24,000 24,800 25,000 25,700
Nov : 23,500 23,950 24,650 24,950

MN sep: 25,000 26,100 26,400 26,500 26,300
Nov t 25,100 26,000 26,350 26,600

NE Sep 2 22,600 21,900 22,600 22,750 22,850
Nov t 22,200 21,700 22,500 22,700

on sep: 23,200 22,800 23,400 23,100 23,450
Nov 23,300 22,900 23,300 22,750

wr Sep 23,500 24,100 24,600 24,800 24,750
Nov 23,600 23,600 24,000 24,900

1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A~28 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
1996 and Forecasted September 1,
(Domestic Units)

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain

Barley
All Wheat

Durum

Other Spring
Rice 1/

Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts
All Cotton 1/

Upland 1/ " :

Amer-Pima 1/ . :
Cottonseed Ton 3
Potatoes

Summer 2/ 3/ cwt

Fall 2/

Total 2/ "
Tobacco Lb 3
Sugarbeets Ton
Sugarcane for

Sugar and Seed "
Pecans Lb

127.1 125.2
67.5 68.7
58.5 59.3
36.3 39.5
32.7 28.1
35.1 30.0

6,121 5,975
37.6 39.3

2,653 2,642

707 658
701 651
991 1,049
261 262
364
350

2,072 2,031
20.2 20.5
33.1 42.4

9,293,435
802,974
396,851

2,281,763
115,840
687,875
171,321

2,382,364

3,661,205

18,942.0
18,413.5
528.5
7,143.5

19,507
453,436
498,633

1,517,334

26,680

29,462
218,900

United States,
1997

9,275,870
629,299
380,015

2,530,534

90,155
584,905
182,034

2,744,451

3,800,225

17,782.5
17,228.5
554.0
6,793.8

16,418
1,626,317
29,688

29,546

9,267,655
653,208
379,395

2,507,169

90,155
561,540
181,455

2,745,891

3,658,525

18,417.5
17,873.5
544.0
7,052.8

17,272
1,614,173
29,358

29,664
292,000

1/ Yield in pounds.
2/ 1996 revised.
3/ August estimate carried

Crop Production
September 1997

forward from July 1.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Barley... . cece cee ee eee ete eens .
Citrus FLULtS. cs. cece eee eee eee eens
Corn for Grain,......e eee eee eee eee oe
Corn-Plants per ACYre......- eee ee eeee
Cotton... Seen eee wee

Cotton - Cummulative Boll Counts.

Cottonseed....

Crop Moisture Maps

Crop Summary....

NULS Ce eee eee eee eee rece eee

Papayas ~ Hawalii...... eee eee eee eee
Peanuts ..... seer ecere wee e eta c ee eeey
Pecans....... wees bene beeen eens
Potatoes.......++- Meee ne eee ee ee eens
Reliability Statement..............5.
Rice....... ee err bee e eee eeee
Rice - By Grain Length......... eee
Sorghum for Grain...... eee eter eee eee
Soybeans for Beans : eee eee eee wee eee

Soybeans - Pods for Beans........+.+.
Sugarbeets.......+-...0e emer anc ceoae
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed.........
Tobacco by Class and Type........... .
Tobacco by States........ eee eee eee eee
Wheat, All....... eee e eee e eee eee eee
Wheat, by Class...
Wheat, Durum..

Wheat, Other Spring....
Wheat, All Spring- Heads per Acre..

Crop Production
September 1997

Index

Page

Table Narrative
A-11 B- 6
A-24 B-11
A-9 B- 4
B-28
A-17 B- 8
A-31
A~16

B- 1
A- 3
A-26 B-11
A-26 B-i1
A-16 B- 7
A-27 B-12
A-18 B- 9

B-14
A-14 B- 6
A-14
A-10 B- 5
A-15 B- 7
A-30
A-25 B-il
A-25 B-11
A-22 B-10
A-21
A-12
A-14
A-13 B- 6
A-13 B- 6
A-29

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between August 25 and September 3 to gather information on
expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat, corn,
soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually
account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots
were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected
plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of
plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to
forecast the number of heads, ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts
are used with similar data from previous years to develop a prajected biological
yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net
yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is
harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field,
another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 15,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
September 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised;

instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season, At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a
balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports,
processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1

production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
September 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1977-1996 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average
becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 5.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the current production forecast of 9.27 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 5.9 percent or approximately 547 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 10.1 percent or approximately 936 million bushels.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-14 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

z 1,000 Acres -> Bushels -- 1,000 Bushels --
AL 3 315 380 34.0 29.0 29.0 10,710 11,020
AR : 3,500 3,550 32.0 32.0 32.0 112,000 113,600
DE 3 217 221 35.0 26.0 26.0 7,595 5,746
FL 1/ : 33 38 32.0 30.0 30.0 1,056 1,140
CA 2 390 420 26.0 28.0 25.0 10,140 10,500
IL : 9,850 9,950 40.5 43.0 43.0 398,925 427,850
IN > 5,360 5,350 38.0 44.0 42.0 203,680 224,700
IA > 9,450 10,400 44.0 49.0 49.0 415,800 509,600
KS > 2,000 2,300 37.0 32.0 35.0 74,000 80,500
KY : 1,180 1,280 38.0 36.0 36.0 44,840 46,080
LA : 1,080 1,350 33.0 29.0 29.0 35,640 39,150
MD 2 480 530 37.0 29.0 25.0 17,760 13,250
MI : 1,640 1,890 28.5 40.0 40.0 46,740 75,600
MN > 5,900 6,700 38.0 42.0 41.0 224,200 274,700
MS : 1,750 2,050 31.0 27.0 28.0 54,250 57,400
MO : 4,050 4,850 37.0 34.0 37.0 149,850 179,450
NE > 3,010 3,450 45.0 43.0 42.0 135,450 144,900
Nog 1/ 3 119 132 37.0 30.0 30.0 4,403 3,960
NC : 1,200 1,330 29.0 28.0 26.0 34,800 34,580
ND : 845 1,290 29.0 28.0 28.0 24,505 36,120
OH : 4,490 4,490 35.0 42.0 43.0 157,150 193,070
OK 1/ 2 285 320 26.0 26.0 26.0 7,410 8,320
PA 1/ + 285 365 40.0 35.0 35.0 11,400 12,775
sc t 540 610 25.0 26.0 24.0 13,500 14,640
sD : 2,670 3,450 34.0 34.0 34.0 90,780 117,300
‘TN = 1,150 1,270 35.0 32.0 34.0 40,250 43,180
TX 3 270 400 26.0 27.0 27.0 7,020 10,800
VA 3 480 490 34.0 30.0 28.0 16,320 13,720
WI 3 870 960 37.0 44.0 44.0 32,190 42,240
us 63,409 69,816 39.3 39.3 2,382,364 2,745,891

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

U.S. Soybean Production

1988 - 1997
Billlon Bushets

3.00
2.80 }----~~-----~--~-------~------ ----------------- 275

2.60 | ----~~---------------~------~- -62-——-—------5 4
2.40 |----- woe +--+ f+ - yes
2.20 L ao - = a oe ee

2.00 4.02 —~-4-93_ 1-92 SS ee eee
1.80 } ---7¢-------------------------~----------------4

1.60 1§@——_-__-__-__-----__-~-~-------~--~-------------4

|.

1 L _ L L
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year

1.40

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-15 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

Area Harvested

-- 1,000 Acres --

516.0 420.0 734 503 526 789.0 460.0

314.0 329.0 1,189 1,167 1,138 778.0 780.0

990.0 930.0 793 692 748 1,636.0 1,450.0

995.0 875.0 1,153 1,207 1,207 2,390.0 2,200.0

98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0

1,336.0 1,435.0 747 736 736 2,079.0 2,200.0

4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 13.5

885.0 625.0 697 673 637 1,286.0 830.0

1,100.0 960.0 819 750 790 1,876.0 1,580.0

385.0 365.0 737 618 671 591.0 510.0

55.0 66.0 733 698 698 84.0 96.0

710.0 675.0 677 590 590 1,002.0 830.0

210.0 210.0 306 434 503 134.0 220.0

282.0 285.0 774 758 741 455.0 440.0

530.0 500.0 612 566 566 675.0 590.0

4,100.0 5,300.0 509 453 489 4,345.0 5,400.0

102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0

12,612.2 13,187.5 701 628 651 18,413.5 17,873.5

41.9 20.0 852 792 792 74.4 33.0

164.0 184.0 1,098 1,174 1,148 375.0 440.0

14.0 13.0 651 665 665 19.0 18.0

36.0 32.0 801 795 795 60.1 53.0

US : 255.9 249.0 991 1,068 1,049 528.5 544.0
All +

AL : 516.0 420.0 734 503 526 789.0 460.0

AZ 355.9 349.0 1,150 1,146 1,118 852.4 813.0

AR 990.0 930.0 793 692 748 1,636.0 1,450.0

CA 1,159.0 1,059.0 1,145 1,201 1,197 2,765.0 2,640.0

FL 3/ 98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0

GA 1,336.0 1,435.0 TAT 736 736 2,079.0 2,200.0

KS 3/ 4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 13.5

LA 885.0 625.0 697 673 637 1,286.0 830.0

MS 1,100.0 960.0 819 750 790 1,876.0 1,580.0

MO 385.0 365.0 737 618 671 591.0 510.0

NM 69.0 79.0 717 693 693 103.0 114.0

NC 710.0 675.0 677 590 590 1,002.0 830.0

OK 210.0 210.0 306 434 503 134.0 220.0

sc z 282.0 285.0 774 758 74h 455.0 440.0

TN 3 530.0 500.0 611 566 566 675.0 590.0

TX : 4,136.0 5,332.0 Sia 455 491 4,405.1 5,453.0

3 102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0

18,942.0 18,417.5

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/  480-1b net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September i997 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997
(Domestic Units)

1,000 Acres

Corn 79,487 80,227 73,147 74,049
Sorghum 13,188 10,268 11,901 9,512
Barley 7,174 6,769 6,787 6,397
All Wheat 75,639 70,767 62,850 63,495
Durum 3,620 3,270 3,546 3,208
Other Spring 20,036 419,155 19,595 18,704
Rice 2,819.0 3,065.0 2,799.0 3,037.0
Soybeans 64,205 70,850 63,409 69,816
Peanuts 2/ 1,401.5 1,404.0 1,380.0 1,384.5
All Cotton 14,633.5 13,905.0 12,868.1 13,436.5
Upland 14,375.5 13,655.0 12,612.2 13,187.5
Amer-Pima 258.0 250.0 255.9 249.0
Potatoes
Summer 3/ 78.1 68.9 74.8 66.0
Pall 3/ 1,269.9 1,198.6 1,246.7 1,181.5
Total 3/ 1,455.9 1,370.8 1,426.0 1,349.0
Tobacco 732.7 794.8
Sugarbeets 1,368.4 1,464.8 1,323.3 1,433.0
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed 888.9 915.0

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.
2/ 1997 area planted revised.
3/ 1996 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

1,000 Acres

Oats 4,661 5,264 2,687 3,222
Winter Wheat 51,983 48,342 39,709 41,583
Rye 1,467 1,443 347 359
Sunflower 2,556 2,920 2,499 2,807
Plaxseed 96 152 92 146
All Hay 61,029 60,807
Alfalfa 24,291 23,556
All Other 36,738 37,251
Dry Edible Beans 1,813.0 1,913.6 1,717.7 1,750.1
Potatoes
Winter 14.5 15.6 14.5 15.4
Spring 93.4 87.7 90.0 86.1
Sweetpotatoes 89.1 87.8 64.8 84.7
Hops 44.2 44.0
Ginger Root (HI) 0.2 0.3

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production . Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-3 NASS, USDA


record level. Yield prospects in Arkansas, California, Missouri, and Texas
remained unchanged from a month ago.

The California harvest is well ahead of normal, but Arkansas and Texas trail
the 5-year average by 7 and 25 percent, respectively. Growers in California
experienced excellent planting weather, got the crop in early, and it is now

in fair-to~good condition. Harvest is expected to be most active around
mid-September as the majority of the crop reaches maturity. In Arkansas, the
crop developed rapidly during August and by month’s end was rated 77 percent
good~to-excelient condition. Below-normal temperatures prompted some growers to
apply fungicides to their crops. The Louisiana harvest was 65 percent complete
with most of the remaining acreage in the northern part of the state. Harvested
yields didn’t meet earlier expectations due to the lateness of the crop and
untimely rains before and during harvest. The crop in Mississippi was slightly
larger than earlier estimated. In Texas, conditions improved after a very late
start.

Soybeans: Growers plan to harvest 69.8 million acres, unchanged from the August

1 forecast and up 10 percent from 1996. Crop maturity is ahead of
last year and normal. Dry conditions with normal summertime temperatures caused
stress to beans in some parts of the Southeast. Drought~like conditions
prevailed across the Mid-Atlantic causing severe stress to the crop. Cool
temperatures across the Eastern and Western Corn Belt during early to mid August
slowed crop development early on. However, warmer temperatures and improved
moisture toward the end of the month improved crop progress.

As of August 31 for the major States, the percent of soybeans setting pods was 6
points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the five year average. Pod
setting was complete as of August 31 in Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Nebraska, and
Ohio. The percent of soybeans setting pods were behind last year and the five
year average in Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The percent of soybeans
dropping leaves was behind 1996 and the five year average at the beginning of
September for the 19 major producing States.

The September Objective Yield pod count for the objective yield states is the
second highest on record. Pod counts for the September survey period were the
highest on record in Iowa and Nebraska, and the second highest on record in
Illinois.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.66 billion pounds, down 4 percent from the

August 1 forecast and down fractionally from 1996. Production is down
from a year ago in all the major peanut states except Florida, New Mexico, and
Texas. Harvested area, estimated at 1.38 million acres, is down 1 percent from
August 1 but virtually unchanged from 1996. North Carolina and Oklahoma were
the only states to adjust their acreage from the August report, dropping their
expectations by 9,000 acres and 5,000 acres, respectively. The U.S. peanut
yield is expected to average 2,642 pounds per harvested acre, down 75 pounds
from last month and down 11 pounds from 1996.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.09 billion pounds, down 4 percent from last
month and 3 percent below the 1996 crop. Yield for the 4-State area is expected
to average 2,618 pounds per acre, down 96 pounds from August 1 and 18 pounds
below last year. Yield prospects in Alabama are unchanged from August 1 but

55 pounds below a year ago. Early harvest is underway and the crop was in
mostly fair-to~-good condition on September 1. The Georgia crop outlook
deteriorated compared with a month ago. Very dry conditions and only scattered
showers prevailed during most of August. Digging has begun on the earliest
fields, but soils are hard, making digging difficult. Florida growers expect
good yields with 9 percent of the crop harvested by September 1.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-7 NASS, USDA


Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 1996-97

Month t Total in Crop

1,000 Pounds

2,875 2,900
2,990 2,715

Nuts: Utilized Production by Crop and State,
1995-96 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

Crop and State

z Tons (In-shell Basis)
Hazelnuts 2
OR : 38,800 18,400 39,800
WA : 200 100 200
Total : 39,000 18,500 40,000
Walnuts :
CA : 234,000 208,000 230,000

: 1,000 Pounds (In-shell Basis)

Pistachios 3

CA : 148,000 105,000 170,000
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1997 A-26 NASS, USDA


Other spring wheat: Production is now forecast at 562 million bushels, down

4 percent from last month. The U.S. yield is forecast at
30.0 bushels per acre. This is 1.3 bushels per acre lower than August 1. There
were no acreage changes. Hard Red Spring production is down from last month as
declines in Minnesota and the Dakotas more than offset improved Montana
prospects. White Spring production is up again because of the improved
Washington crop.

Durum wheat: Production is forecast at 90.2 million bushels, unchanged from

last month, but still well below last year. As of August 31, the
North Dakota harvest was running ahead of both last year and the 5-year average;
Montana’s harvest was about half complete.

California Navel Oranges: Production for 1997-98 is forecast at 44.0 million

boxes, up 10 percent from last season’s production of
40.0 million boxes. This initial forecast of the 1997-98 season is based on an
objective measurement survey conducted in the California Central Valley. The
crop is maturing well with fruit set up from last year, but low by historical
standards. Individual fruit sizes are similar to last season, when sizes were
large by historical standards.

cee naansyapupuparaa agupgeyusepenspr-pusesen>sesresearapepeanr’ — — ——
This report was approved on September 12, 1997.
=
LOL aap ~—
Acting Secret&ry of Agricultural Statistics Boar
Agriculture Chairperson

Richard E. Rominger Rich Allen

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1997 B-2 WASS, USDA


USDA to Hold Data Users Meeting
Holiday Inn Mart Plaza
Chicago, Tilinois
October 20, 1997

| The National Agricultural Statistics Service will
jibe organizing an open forum for Data Users. The

lprograms including the status of the 1997 Census of

JAgriculture, and to seek comments and input from
data users. Other agencies to be represented will
include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the
Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural
WService, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

(202) 720-3896 or fvogel@nass.usda.gov

t_ U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1997 418-780/60011 .
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-19 NASS, USDA


August Weather Summary: For the first time since 1961, no named tropical
systems prowled Atlantic waters during August. The
combination of dominant northwesterly winds and a lack of tropical moisture left
the Southeast under an intensifying dry spell. Farther west, a procession of
cold fronts eased dryness across the central Corn Belt and held temperatures
1 to 3 degrees F below normal. The fronts also delivered drought relief to the
northern Middle Atlantic region. Continuing a trend that developed in mid-July,
monsoonal moisture sparked locally intense thunderstorms in the Southwest and
contributed to above-normal rainfall on the central Plains. Over southern
Texas, however--beneath the center of the same high-pressure system that steered
tropical moisture into the Southwest-~very hot (up to 3 degrees F above normal),
dary weather prevailed for a second consecutive month. In northern California
and western Oregon, the remnants of the eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Ignacio
dropped out-of~season rainfall on August 19-20.

Strong high-pressure systems delivered nearly three dozen daily-record lows to
the Southeast on August 1 and 2, and another five dozen to the Central and
Eastern States from August 5 to 9. After a mid-month heat wave in the East,
which included the highest reading in Washington, DC (105 degrees F) since
July 10, 1936, another cool period resulted in an additional four dozen records
between August 22 and 28. The first cool wave produced the earliest

sub-50 degree reading in Asheville, Nc (49 degrees F on August 1); the last
yielded a monthly record low in Tallahassee, FL (57 degrees F on August 23).

Despite generally cool weather in the Southeast, lictie rain fell. Record-low
August totals were reported in Mobile, AL (1.04 inches) and Columbia, SC

(0.22 inches). Mobile's August rainfall stood in sharp contrast to July's total
of 18.52 inches, 70 percent of which fell during Hurricane Danny's passage.
Farther west, dry weather gripped southern Texas for a second consecutive month.
Although San Antonio's 42-day dry spell ended on August 7, only 0.62 inches fell
there during the month. Hot weather exacerbated the short-term dryness across
southern Texas. Corpus Christi registered 101 degrees F on August 22, their
highest reading since August 27, 1990. In Rio Grande City, high temperatures
averaged 105.1 degrees F during August, a record for any month. In addition,
their highs reached or exceeded 100 degrees F on every day from June 29 to
August 31, a total of 64 days, second only to a 73-day streak in 1957.

Although August began dry in the central Corn Belt, much-needed moisture
arrived by mid-month. In Peoria, IL, where the June-July rainfall of

2.28 inches was only 28 percent of normal, 6.11 inches (197 percent of normal)
fell during August. A few dry pockets lingered or developed in parts of the
western Corn Belt, where August rainfall totaled 0.63 inches in Sioux City, IA
and 1.37 inches in Norfolk, NE. Across the central Corn Belt, the summer of
1997 ended with fewer days of 90-degree heat~--5 to 20 days--than the 10 to

40 days normally observed.

Arizona bore the brunt of damaging flash floods during the month, including

two that resulted in fatalities. Farther northeast, monsoonal moisture
interacted with cold fronts. In Wyoming, Cheyenne’s rainfall of 4.33 inches was
their third-highest August total. On August 11, Grand Island, NE reported a
daily-record total of 3.22 inches en route to a monthly total of 7.15 inches.
And in Dodge City, KS, 3.09 inches fell on August 5-6, their fourth-highest
24-hour total in August.

The month started out hot along the West Coast, with about three dozen daily
records reported from August 1 to 7. On August 6, Simi Valley, CA logged a
monthly record high of 109 degrees F. Although extremely hot weather abated in
interior areas thereafter, unusually warm conditions persisted along the coast
due to El Nifio-warmed ocean water. In Eureka, CA, the mercury reached or
exceeded 70 degrees F on a record-setting 11 consecutive days at month's end.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B-3 NASS, USDA


crop after the 41,000 ton crop of 1993. Production is expected to be up

116 percent from last year and 3 percent above 1995. Oregon's share of the crop
is expected to be 39,800 tons, compared to last year’s 18,400 tons and 3 percent
above 1995's 38,800 tons. Washington production is forecast at 200 tons this
season, double last year’s 100 tons but the same as 1995.

Crop progress is somewhat ahead of normal, following nearly 40 days without
rain. Several factors have contributed to this season's large production
expectations. First, with hazelnut's tendency towards alternate year bearing,
the small crop of 1996 would point to a larger crop this year. Second, largely
favorable winter and spring weather conditions allowed for good catkin
development, excellent pollination, and a large nut set.

The results of the objective measurement survey showed the average number of

sampled nuts was over 3 times that of last year, and 45 percent greater than in
1995. The percentage of good nuts was slightly larger than in 1996 and the same
as in 1995. Both the average size of good nuts and their average weight were

very similar to 1995 but smaller than last year. Brown stained nuts amounted to
3.3 percent of the sample, the second highest proportion since records of brown
stain incidence began in 1984 and about 1.3 percentage points above the average.

Walnuts: California walnut production is forecast at 230,000 tons, up

11 percent from 1996's crop of 208,000 tons. This is unchanged from
the July forecast. The July forecast was based upon subjective information
provided by growers. The September forecast is based upon the Walnut Objective
Measurement Survey conducted July 28 through August 23, 1997.

Survey data indicated an average nut set of 1,753, up 8 percent from 1996's
average of 1,630. The Hartley nut set was up 20 percent; Serr, down 44 percent;
and Franquette, down 8 percent from 1996. Percent of sound kernels in~shell was
97.3 percent Statewide. In-shell weight per nut was 22.9 grams, while the
average in-shell suture measurement was 32.3 millimeters. The average length
in-shell was 38.6 millimeters.

Pistachios: California pistachio production is forecast at a record 170 million

pounds, up 62 percent from 1996's 105 million pounds. This
forecast is based upon an objective measurement survey completed August 10,
1997. In recent years, production has remained more stable as Pioneer Gold
rootstock has increasingly replaced the older Atlantica rootstock. The Pioneer
Gold generally bears heavy on even years and the Atlantica on add.

The estimated average number of clusters per tree was 1,049. The estimated
total number of filled nuts per tree was 8,326 compared with 5,007 in 1996.

The average number of nuts per cluster, including both filled and blank, was
10.4 nuts per cluster. The percent of nuts filled was 76.0 percent. The
average in~hull weight per nut including blanks was 2.78 grams, compared to
2.52 grams in 1996. The in-hull cross suture measurement, at 14.92 millimeters,
was slightly larger than the 14.87 millimeters in 1996. Average kernel weight
was .896 grams. The average suture was 10.56 millimeters, the average cross
suture was 9.60 millimeters, and the kernel length was 16.55 millimeters.

Due to an earlier than usual spring, the crop is approximately one to two weeks
ahead of normal.

Pecans, 1997 Crop: The September 1 forecast for pecan production is 292 million
pounds (in-shell basis), up 32 percent from last year’s crop

of 222 million pounds. Improved varieties are forecast at 213 million pounds,

73 percent of the total. Native varieties increased 61 percent from last year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 B~-12 NASS, USDA


All Spring Wheat: Head Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield
surveys in 3 spring wheat estimating States during 1997. Randomly selected
plots in wheat fields are visited from August through harvest to obtain
specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived actual field
counts. The final number of heads will be determined when the plots are
harvested at maturity. These data will be published in January.

All Spring Wheat: Heads per Square Foot,
Selected States, 1993-97

Other Spring: Number

MN Sep 44.3 44,3 45.6 41.6 47.7
Final 45.3 43.9 45.6 41.6

MT Sep 29.2 27.3 30.4 25.2 25.8
Final 29.1 27.3 30.4 25.1

ND Sep 41.9 39.4 39.5 36.0 37.8
Final 42.7 39.4 39.5 36.1

Durum:

ND Sep 27.5 25.9 24.8 24.7 22.8
Final 26.9 25.7 24.8 24.7

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-29 NASS, USDA


Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

Area Harvested Production

1,000 Acres

AZ 1/ : 164 89 90.0 93.0 93.0 14,760 8,277
CA L/ 2 138 130 100.0 95.0 95.0 13,800 12,350
MN + 10 5 43.0 36.0 36.0 430 180
MT A 270 310 25.0 25.0 25.0 6,750 7,750
ND : 2,940 2,650 27.0 23.0 23.0 79,380 60,950
sD : 24 24 30.0 27.0 27.0 720 648
US 2 3,546 3,208 32.7 28.1 28.1 115,840 90,155

i1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted September 1, 1997

Area Harvested :

State

1996 : 1997 : 1996 :--~----------------:

1,000 Acres - 1,000 Bushels --
co 1/ : 68 62 75.0 80.0 80.0 5,100 4,960
ID : 700 560 72.0 73.0 73.0 50,400 40,880
MN : 2,400 2,350 42.0 35.0 33.0 100,800 77,550
MT : 4,100 4,200 26.0 28.0 29.0 106,600 121,800
NV 1/ z 10 6 75.0 90.0 90.0 750 540
ND : 9,500 8,500 33.0 27.0 25.0 313,500 212,500
OR 1/ : 105 125 61.0 62.0 62.0 6,405 7,750
SD : 2,250 2,400 37.0 32.0 29.0 83,250 69,600
ut 1/ : 28 29 60.0 50.0 50.0 1,680 1,450
WA : 395 445 46.0 50.0 53.0 18,170 23,585
WI 1/ : 10 7 35.0 35.0 35.0 350 245
wy 1/ 3 29 20 30.0 34.0 34.0 870 680
US : 19,595 18,704 35.1 31.3 30.0 687,875 561,540

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1997 A-13 NASS, USDA




Peanuts:
and United States,

AL 2 191.0
FL : 82.0
GA : 533.0
NM : 16.5
NC 2/ : 125.0
OK 2/ z 81.0
sc : 10.5
TX : 265.0
VA 3 76.0
US 2/ 1,380.0

1,000 Acres

189.0
82.0
518.0
17.5
121.0
78.0
10.0
295.0
74.0

1,384.5

Area Harvested, Yield,
1996 and Forecasted September 1,

2,300
3,100
2,800
2,450
2,850
2,500
2,900
2,750
2,700

Pounds

and Production by State
1997 1/

2,300 449,805
3,100 236,160
2,650 1,433,770
2,450 37,950
2,750 367,500
2,500 195,210
3,000 32,550
2,700 689,000
2,700 219,260

2,642 3,661,205

--- 1,000 Pounds ~

434,700
254,200
1,372,700
42,875
332,750
195,000
30,000
796,500
199,800

3,658,525

i/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

2/ 1997 planted acres
Oklahoma to 80,000

Cottonseed:

and Forecasted September 1,

acres,

and U.S.

Production,

revised for North Carolina to 121,000 acres,
to 1,404,000 acres.

United States, 1995-96

1997

Production
State  :----------------------- eee ee o-- +++ --- +--+ +--+ - +--+
: 1995 : 1996 i997 1/
1,000 Tons
US 6,848.7 7,143.5 7,052.8

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Crop Production
September 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA