Cottonseed: Production, United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Production
I Ce) ny
000 Tons sStSC=CS~S~S~S
US 5,968.5 6,925.5 6,363.5

Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Boot tre
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted Au ust 1, 92

CA 120.0 2,172 2,100 3,058 3,127 2,520
co 150:0 1,950 1,800 45275 33315 2700
ID 83.0 23050 27000 3,560 23932 1,660
KS 19.0 1,700 13750 665 544 333
MI 310.0 1,800 1,300 5,445 6,210 4,030
MN 86.0 1,650 17550 13768 15980 ~13333
MT 8:0 1,900 2150 220 158 172
NE 155.0 1,900 13800 5,004 4,009 2,790
NM 14:0 2,000 1;900 231 320 266
NY 34.0 1,380 13350 672 483 459
ND 415.0 1,480 13150 5,005 7,548 4,773
OR 6.0 2,100  2°100 180 147 126
TX 33.0 13120 13380 221 157 455
UT 5.5 480 500 13 26 28
WA 36.0 2,000 1,950 912 1,000 702
WI 8:5 13900 13850 185 207 157
wy 32.0 1,950 1,940 965 800 621
US 1,515.0 1,770 1,526 32,379 32,963 23,125

1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-20 NASS, USDA


respectively. Yields are forecast at 37.6 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels
from last month and 2.8 bushels per acre better than a year ago. Harvested
area is unchanged from July 1, at 42.6 million acres, up 8 percent from last
season.

Durum Wheat: Production is forecast at 80.9 million bushels, up 9 percent

from July 1 but down 22 percent from 1991. Yields are expected
to average 33.5 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels and 1.0 bushels per acre from
July 1, 1992, and last year, respectively. Prospects for better yields in the
Dakotas and Montana are the reason for the production increase. Area for
grain is unchanged from last month.

Ample moisture and cool temperatures have favored crop development in
Montana's main durum area. North Dakota's crop improved during July but still
trails average progress.

Other Spring Wheat: Production as of August 1, is forecast at a record high
654 million bushels. This is up 12 percent from Tast

month's forecast and 30 percent more than in 1991. U.S. yields are forecast

at 36.1 bushels per acre, up 3.8 bushels from the last forecast and

2.7 bushels above 1991's average yield. Area for harvest remains at

18.1 million acres, 20 percent higher than last season.

Yield prospects held or improved during July in the major producing States.
Cool, July temperatures have the crop developing slowly from Montana across
the Dakotas into Minnesota. Harvest progress in all four States is well
behind average.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4,55 billion pounds, down 8 percent from

last year’s record high crop but 26 percent above the 1990 crop.
Harvested area, estimated at 1.75 million acres, is 13 percent below last
year. Yields are expected to average 2,602 pounds per acre, 158 pounds above
last year and 611 pounds above the 1990 level.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.80 billion pounds, down 12 percent from last
year's level. If realized, Florida's production will be a record high

321 million pounds. Expected acreage for harvest in the Southeast at

1.06 million acres is 19 percent below last year. Yields in the four State
area are expected to average 2,658 pounds per acre, 219 pounds above the

1991 level. Although planting was late in many areas, conditions since have
been mostly favorable for development with the only moisture stress reported
in South Carolina, Timely rainfall in Georgia has kept much of the crop from
experiencing moisture stress. Crop development approached normal with

99 percent pegging by August 2. In Alabama, the crop was rated in good to
excellent condition with soil moisture reported as adequate or better
throughout the State.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 733 million pounds,

5 percent less than last year. Area for harvest is expected to total

255,000 acres, 3,000 acres less than 1991's acreage. Yield per harvested acre
at 2,873 pounds is down 107 pounds from last year. Frequent showers have

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-7 NASS, USDA


July Weather Summary: Drought broke dramatically across the Corn Belt during
July and, although it remained cooler than normal,

temperatures were high enough to help turn the Nation's corn crop condition
from 52 percent good to excellent on July 5 to 79 percent good to excellent by
August 2. Soybean, grain sorghum, and spring wheat crops also enjoyed ample
July showers without excessive heat. Monthly precipitation topped 150 percent
of normal in an arc through the Northern and Central States. Pockets of heavy
rain also covered parts of Texas and the Southeast. Widespread dryness was
confined to the Red River Valley and the South Atlantic States, as well as the
dry-season Western States.

Temperature departures were remarkable for a summer month in the North Central
States. In fact, temperatures averaged 9°F below normal at several stations
in Nebraska and South Dakota, which was the greatest negative departure for
July in the contiguous United States since similar values were recorded in
southern Texas 16 years ago. And not since 1958 had a July sported a
combination of cool weather in the North Central States and wet weather from
the east-central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes, along with an acute fire
danger (hot and dry) in the Western States.

Early in the month, a strong upper level ridge built across the Southern
States, allowing 100°F heat to creep as far north as the west-central Plains
and the Middle Atlantic States. A series of cold fronts from central Canada
took their toll on the ridge, squashing it by mid-month, but not before
Pueblo, CO, hit 104°F on the 6th, and Norfolk, VA, reached 101°F on the

12th and 14th. But the fronts served to keep the North Central States cool,
as Sault Sainte Marie, MI, topped 70°F for the first time in 19 days on July
7. Part of the crushed ridge rebounded over the Western States, leaving areas
east of the Rockies unprotected from thunderstorm-laden Canadian cold fronts.
Hit~or-miss harbinger rains dampened the Corn Belt and the east-central Plains
early in the month, but became widespread after the 9th. July rainfall
records began to fall by mid-month, and Columbus, OH, set an all-time 24-hour
record with more than 5 inches on the 13th. By the time July ended, Kansas
City, MO, had endured its wettest July (15.47 inches), topping the record set
in 1958 (10.70 inches). Columbus, Akron, and Mansfield, OH, along with
Moline, IL, also set July rainfall records and received more than 10 inches of
rain.

After each successive cold front pushed into the Southeast, Canadian-origin
air blanketed the Northern and Central States. Temperatures twice failed to
top 60°F in Dubuque, IA (on the 23rd and the 30th), and the average maximum
temperature was only 74.5°F in Sioux Falls, SD, a record, and more than

10°F beTow normal. But on the other side of the Continental Divide, hot, dry
weather after mid-month invited wildfire development. At the end of July,
major fires scorched timber and brush west of Yosemite National Park, CA, in
south-central Oregon, and in west-central Idaho.

July Crop Progress: Intermittent rains across the eastern half of the Nation

interrupted early-season harvest activities, but improved
prospects for late-season crops. Predominately dry weather in the West,
meanwhile, allowed harvests to progress on schedule.

Winter wheat harvest was well along in the Southeast, Delta, and southern
Plains entering July, but progress was behind normal for the 19 major

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-3 NASS, USDA


the forecast a month ago and 3 percent less than a year ago. Yield per acre,
at 2,167 pounds, is 98 pounds lighter than last year's average. Acres for
harvest are 1 percent above a year earlier.

North Carolina growers have seen their crops benefit from improved conditions
during July. South Carolina's harvest got underway about a week later than
last year, but was still considered to be about normal. By month's end,
nearly half of the crop was harvested compared to the usual 41 percent.
Auction markets opened a week earlier than normal.

In Georgia, tobacco markets opened in mid-July. Quality of the lower stalk
tobacco has not been as good as middle and upper stalk tobacco. As of August
2, two-thirds of the crop had been harvested.

Burley output is expected to total 686 million pounds in 1992, up 4 percent
from 1991. The larger production is the result of a 4 percent increase in
acreage. Average yield is forecast at 2,119 pounds per acre, 9 pounds more
than last year.

In Kentucky, the condition of the crop is highly variable. Farmers report
that the crop is uneven with some of it being topped and suckered while
earlier plantings are being cut and housed. There continue to be reports of
blue mold, black shank, and stalk rot in some parts of that State. Tennessee
farmers are also experiencing some of the same weather affects as those
occurring in Kentucky. About two-thirds of the crop looks good and
one-third is in the fair category.

Fire-cured production is forecasted at 33.7 million pounds, 2 percent above
1991. Acreage is up 2 percent and yield is expected to average 8 pounds per
acre more than last year.

Southern Maryland type 32 production is forecast at 21.4 million pounds
compared with 19.9 million pounds produced last year. The area for harvest,
at 13,800 acres, is up 11 percent from a year ago. Yield per acre of

1,552 pounds, compares with 1,607 pounds last year.

Growers of dark air-cured tobacco expect to harvest 4,730 acres with a
production of 9.78 million pounds. Acreage is up 7 percent and production is
expected to increase by 10 percent from a year earlier.

All cigar-type production is expected to total 31.6 million pounds, virtually
unchanged from 1991. Cigar filler production is expected to increase

4 percent from last year. Binder production is 1 percent higher but cigar
wrapper production is 37 percent lower than last year's production.

Sugarbeets: The sugarbeet production forecast of 29.2 million tons, is

4 percent above a year ago and 6 percent above two years ago.
Harvested acres are expected to be 2 percent above the previous year.
Michigan, Minnesota, and Texas show the largest production increases, while
North Dakota showed the largest decrease.

The area expected to be harvested, of 1.41 million acres compares with
1.39 million acres last year. Average yield is forecast, at 20.7 tons per
acre, 0.5 ton more than a year earlier.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-12 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State

and United States, 1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

AL 1/ 110
AZ: 29
AR1/ : 930
CAl/ : — 410
co : 2,300
DE 1/ 67
FL 1/ 25
GAl/ : 425
1D : — 700
IL : 1,400
IN : 720
IAl/ : 50
KS : 11,000
KY : 400
LAI/ =: 190
MD1/ : 195
MI : 560
MN 1/ 55
MS 1/9: 250
MO : 1,500
MT : 1,800
NE : 25100
NVI: 4
Nd 1/ 26
NM 1/ 320
NY Is : 110
NC > 480
ND1/: 90
OH : 1,080
OK : 5,000
OR : 800
PAl/ : 175
SCl/ : — 275
sD : 1,300
IN1/ : 320
1X : 2,800
UT1/ : 130
VAl/ : 250
WA > 700
Way: 10
WI1/ : 120
WY 1/ 190
us : 39,396

: - 1,000 Acres -

Area Harvested :

95

44
900
550
2,300
70

25
350
800
1,100
450
40
10,900
420
160
220
630
45
260
1,350
23250
1,950
5

30

DM 0000000000000000900900000000000000000000000

Production

--- 1,000 Bushels ---

2,750 4,275
2,900 3,960
20,460 41,400
32,800 44,000
71,300 64, 400
3,551 3,640
575 1,000
14,025 15,400
49,000 52,000
44;800 62,700
28,800 21,600
1,700 1,480
363,000 359,700
10,800 22,680
35800 5,760
95750 11,880
24,080 31,500
1,980 1,800
4,500 10,920
48,000 64,800
72,000 60,750
67,200 60,450
360 450
1,196 1,440
8,000 10; 200
5,390 6,095
19,200 27,750
23970 4,960
52,920 60,420
140,000 174,000
41,600 41,650
7,700 8,695
8,525 12,420
45,500 30,000
7,680 14,570
84,000 129,200
4,680 5,590
12,250 13,260
40,600 106,000
450 506
5,880 2,380
5,510 5,250
1,372,182 1,600,931

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from

Crop Production
August 1992

earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-22 NASS, USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative

1
1
—

Apples, Commercial.
Area Planted, by State: .
Barley........-seseeeeee
Beans. Dry Edible.
Corn For Grain..
Cotton.........
Cottonseed...
Crop Summary.
Ginger Root..
Grapes.....
Hay, Alli... cc cece cee e cece eee eee
Hay, Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures a
Hay, All Other...............0.. A-24
Hops.........-. oe A-30
Oats.. .

Olives...
Papayas-Hawaii
Pasture & Range Feed Condition.
Peaches

Peanuts For Nuts. oe
Pears.........50- oe A-33
Potatoes, Summer. a

Prunes & Plums.
Reliability. .

TT rit
WW Me me
Tarr
~

0

PEPSPPryeyy
PARWOOWSNON

nee

1
free ern errr renee aaa

1
DUN D KPWNWOH BOWE AVNEWRAD EEE ANAPOONODYN

1
Bee

A-17

i

Ree, by Class.
Sor hum For Grain.
Soybeans For Beans

1
rer

Tobacco,

Wheat,
Wheat,
Wheat, Durum......
Wheat, Other Spring. oe
Wheat, Winter. ..... 0... cece eee cnet ene ener

r
nN
©
PRD TD TOW OT TODO TDVWTTDTOTDOT OOD ONO OD

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-20 NASS, USDA


Reliability of August 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between July 22 and August 3 to gather information on
expected yield as of August 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat, corn,
soybeans, rice, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that
usually account for at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Farm
operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and to
seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected fields (corn,
cotton, rice, and soybeans). The items counted within the selected plots
depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of
plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to
forecast the number of heads, ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The
counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected
biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to
obtain a net yield. The plots are re-visited each month until crop maturity
when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has
harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year
harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 30,000 producers were
interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield
and in the case of late planted crops, acreage questions were asked to measure
changes in planting intentions since the mid-year survey.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower
reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data
were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits
their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics
Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare
the published August 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The August 1 production forecast will not be revised;

instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout
the growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records
and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover, stocks, production, exports,
processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted
crops are subject to revision August 1 if conditions altered the planting
intentions since the mid-year survey. Harvested acres may be revised any time
a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the

August 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation
between the August 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed
as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-18 NASS, USDA


All Other Hay:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State

and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

,000 Acres
AL : 780 710
AZ : 30 30
AR : 1,070 1,070
CA : 630 500
co 3 780 700
cT : 65 71
DE : 14 14
FL : 230 250
GA 3 600 600
ID : 200 160
IL : 280 300
IN : 300 350
TA : 300 350
KS > 1,700 1,600
KY : 1,950 1,850
LA : 300 280
ME : 200 207
MD : 140 150
MA : 74 74
MI : 250 250
MN : 750 700
MS : 720 700
MO : 3,200 3,100
MT 900 850
NE 2,150 2,150
NV 240 150
NH 61 63
NJ 86 88
NM 70 60
NY 1,190 1,190
NC 480 500
ND 1,900 1,800
OH 700 750
OK 2,000 1,970
OR 650 625
PA 1,110 1,090
RI 5
sc 260 230
sD 2,200 2,000
IN 1,570 1,530
1X 3,700 3,700
UT 150 140
VT 245 265
VA 1,010 1,050
WA 300 290
WV 470 500
WI 300 750
WY 680 620
US 36,990 36,382

11

456 676
2,520 2,640
3,003 2,983
7,600 9,250

280 315
520 466
2,040 1,818
800 810
950 752
720 660

708 1,020
63,265 69,690

Crop Production
August 1992

A-24

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


maintained adequate moisture in much of the North Carolina producing area.
Virginia producers report late development due to delayed planting and
unseasonably cool temperatures early in the season. Disease problems have
been minimal through August 1.

The Southwest crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total
1.02 billion pounds, up 4 percent from last year's 977 million pounds. If
realized, Texas will exceed last year’s record by 8 percent with a crop of
736 million pounds, based primarily on higher yields. This year's expected
yield of 2,300 pounds will also set a new high. The region's acreage at
440,000 acres is 3 percent below the 1991 level. Yields are expected to
average 2,311 pounds, 157 pounds per acre above the 1991 level of

2,154 pounds. Cool, wet weather early in the season eased to provide
favorable growing conditions across much of the area. Development remains
somewhat behind normal but crop conditions are rated as 80 percent good in
Oklahoma and 85 percent good in Texas. Few disease and insect problems have
been reported.

Rice: Rice production is forecast at 166 million cwt, 8 percent above

991 and 7 percent above 1990. This production level, if realized,
would be the second highest production total of record, falling short of only
the 1981 crop. Production is expected to exceed last year in all States
except Texas, for which production is forecast to decline only fractionally.
Acreage for harvest rose in each of the estimating States and the national
yield is expected to be 10 pounds below last year's level.

Soybeans: The first soybean production forecast of the 1992 crop is

2.08 billion bushels, up 5 percent from the previous ear. Yield is
expected to be a record high 35.8 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from 1991.
Soybean planting was completed at an earlier date than in 1991. The average
plant maturity, as well as the percentage of pods set, is behind last year's
pace. The number of lateral branches per plant is up from 1991. Soybeans are
rated in mostly good condition.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

1983 - 1992
BILLION BUSHELS
fo)

2.10 2.08

2.00 |-- 194 1.94 ~ ZA |
1.64 165
1.60} BAA QA YY
1.00 BAA GAB WV
0.60 (AA. l\A\A.| A A AZ
9.00 83 34 86 86 87 88 89 90 91 92
YEAR
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1992 B-8 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

1991 1992 1991 1992
Hectares
Corn : 30,736,610 32,106,080 27,859,670 29,227,930
Sorghum : 4,457,260 5,451,170 3,974,060 4,985,380
Oats : 3,502,190 3,248,040 1,940,890 1,940,490
Barley : 3,618,330 3,149,300 3,404,660 2,951,810
All Wheat : 28,290,260 29,270,010 23,347,780 25,523,390
Winter : 20,659,020 20,678,440 15,943,170 17,219,560
Durum : 1,316,460 1,000,390 1,293,790 977,730
Other Spring : 6,314,780 7,591,180 6,110,820 7,326,100
Rice : 1,156,200 1,224,190 1,112,900 1,201,120
Soybeans : 23,900,990 23,917,180 23,452,190 23,503,590
Peanuts : 825,240 719,340 815,730 708,210
Al] Cotton : 5,686,740 5,430,540 5,244,580 4,614,680
Upland : 5,585,410 5,323,900 5,145,840 4,508,850
Amer-Pima : 101,330 106,640 98,740 105,830
All_Hay : 25,323,480 24,465,530
Alfalfa : 10,353,990 9,742,100
All Other : 14,969,480 14,723,430
Dry Edible Beans : 772,590 640,540 753,820 613,110
Summer Potatoes : 40,830 35,860 39,380 34,840
Tobacco 2/ : 309,100 316,670
Sugarbeets : 577,650 582,830 561,790 572,600
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 362,970 385,260
Hops : 16,010 17,120

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ 1991 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992 1/ (Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested
Crop tenn n nn an renner nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn rnc
1991 1992 1991 1992
Hectares

Rye : 676,240 638, 200 160,260 158,230
Sunflower : 1,110,060 859,560 1,080,520 834,470
Flaxseed : 142,050 77,300 136,380 73,650
Potatoes 3

Winter : 5,340 5,340 4,940 5,300

Spring : 36,500 35,530 35,410

Fall : 487,130 460,380 476,680
Sweetpotatoes : 32,860 33,990 31,480

1/ 1992 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-5 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

Aug 8, 1992

FAVORABLY
MOIST

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-1 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans:

and United States, 1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Large Lima

C.

Baby Lima
CA

KS 1/

Total

Total

Total
Light Red Kidney
A

1,000 Acres
28.0 28.
40.0 23.

1.9 0

3.3 4

1.2

255.0 235
50.3 34
3.0 1
3.1 3

156.0 129
1.8 2

475.6 410

1.5 1

8.4 4

1.0 0

115.3 82
2.0
5.0 3

133.2 91

5.7
10.0

1.3

4.6
21.6

172.0 142
65.9 34
31.0 18

6.0 7
28.5 15

8.0 7
86.2 66
11.8 8

338.0 288

1.8 0

8.0 21

6.0 6
18.4 8
37.0 30

818.6 653

3.0 20

2.7 6

0.8 1

8.0 8

5.9 6

9.5 12
20.0 21
59.9 75

ROONDONS NUNWOOMOMODWOROU TNR WU OMON NOOWONS UM OG O

Small Red
ID

WA
Total
Cranberry

MI

Black
Turtle Soup

Blackeye
CA

TMX
Total
Garbanzo
IA

re

n

~

: 1,909.

POUNCNO

Oo WOR AwWHMOM

HWUNAWSHAWOW
HH PWONDUWONODMHWS ww COO COO

Area Planted, by Commercial Class, State,

iw)
No-moro
CuNCwWOMO

ny
=
Oo TOM wWWNhFRO

pa

Grondroauerewne
@ NNOCNOOWOOMDOO0O UT COO COO

a

1,582.

1/ Included with other

Crop Production
August 1992

beans.

Agricultural Statistics Board

A-21

NASS, USDA


Tobacco by Class and Type: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992 (continued)

Class and Type

--- Acres ---- --~ Pounds ~-- - 1,000 Pounds --

Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air-cured
Type 35, One Sucker

Belt :

KY : 2,500 2,700 2,040 2,100 5,100 5,670

TN : 610 630 2,000 2,000 1,220 1,260

US : 3,110 3,330 2,032 2,081 6,320 6,930
Type 36, Green River :

Belt

KY : 1,206 1,300 2,020 2,100 2,424 2,730
Type 37, VA Sun-cured :

Belt 2

VA : 100 100 1,560 1,200 156 120

Total 35-37 : 4,410 4,730 2,018 2,068 8,900 9,780

Class 4, Cigar Filler :

Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA 6,700 7,000 2,050 2,050 13,735 14,350

Class 5, Cigar Binder

Class 5A, CT Valley

Binder

Type 51, CT Valley

Broadleaf :

CT : 670 700 1,750 1,750 1,173 1,225
MA : 110 150 1,860 1,900 205 285

US : 780 850 31,767 1,776 1,378 1,510
Class 5B, WI Binder :

Type 54, Southern WI:

WI : 4,200 4,200 2,210 2,200 9,282 9,240
Type 55, Northern WI:
WI : 3,200 3,200 1,580 1,600 5,056 5,120
Total 54-55 : 7,400 7,400 1,938 1,941 14,338 14,360
Total 51-55 : 8,180 8,250 1,921 1,924 15,716 15,870
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper :
Type 61, CT Valley :

Shade-grown :

CT : 1,080 690 1,535 1,360 1,658 938

MA : 370 340 «1,540 1,350 570 459
us : 1,450 1,030 1,537 1,356 2,228 1,397
All Cigar Types :
Total 41-61 : 16,330 16,280 1,940 1,942 31,679 31,617

: 763,760 782,540 2,178 2,129 1,663,464 1,665,888

Al) Tobacco

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-27 NASS, USDA


Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,

by State and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested

Production

1991

1991 1992

~- 1,000 Acres -
AZ : 170 140
AR : 30 30
CA : 1,050 960
co : 720 720
CT : 19 19
DE : 6 6
ID : 1,030 960
IL : 670 700
IN : 375 330
IA > 1,500 1,450
KS : 800 850
KY : 350 300
ME : 21 23
MD : 75 70
MA : 29 29
MI : 1,200 1,150
MN : 1,700 1,500
MO : 500 500
MT : 1,500 1,450
NE : 1,450 1,500
NV 3 235 240
NH : 15 15
NJ : 28 29
NM : 260 260
NY : 760 760
NC : 40 30
ND : 1,400 1,200
OH : 600 650
OK : 400 380
OR : 425 435
PA : 780 800
RI : 2 2
SD : 2,350 2,000
TN : 80 70
TX : 100 100
UT : 490 490
VT : 105 105
VA : 130 140
WA : 480 480
Ww : 50 40
WI : 3,000 2,500
WY : 660 660
US 25,585 24,073

1,000 Tons

1,309
90
7,035
2,736
51

21
3,914
2,546
1,125
5,550
2,480
1,225
42
225
75
4,680
6,290
1,350
3,750
4,785
858
35

87
1,274
1,900
120
2,310
1,680
1,320
1,785
2,028
5
5,405
280
450
1,960
242
442
2,160
125
8,400
1,650

83,795

Crop Production
August 1992

A-23

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)
Aug 8, 1992

Next Chart Aug 25, 1992

NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY tous on prstinnar Woon

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-2 NASS, USDA



Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

~- 1,000 Acres -~ --- Bushels --
AL : 350 270 23.0 27.0 7,480 8,050 7,290
AR : 3,200 3,150 28.0 28.0 90,450 89,600 88,200
OE : 250 215 35.0 30.0 6,766 8,750 6,450
FL : 43 50 27.0 32.0 1,425 1,161 1,600
GA 3 590 640 27.0 25.0 9,800 15,930 16,000
IL : 9,100 9,400 37.5 41.0 354,900 341,250 385,400
IN : 4,430 4,500 39.0 41.0 171,380 172,770 184,500
IA : 8,650 8,050 40.5 42.0 327,850 350,325 338,100
KS: 1,900 1,850 23.0 30.0 46,800 43,700 55,500
KY : 1,130 1,150 32.5 34.0 39,040 36,725 39,100
LA : 950 1,150 29.0 28.0 42,000 27,550 32,200
MD : 500 545 34.0 32.0 17,820 17,000 17,440
MI Hy 1,390 1,440 38.0 35.0 43,320 52,820 50,400
MN : 5,350 5,400 36.5 36.0 179,400 195,275 194,400
MS : 1,800 1,750 26.0 26.0 39,900 46,800 45,500
Mo : 4,430 4,250 30.5 34.0 124,500 135,115 144,500
NE : 2,460 2,460 33.5 38.0 81,420 82,410 93,480
NJ : 123 128 36.0 34.0 3,996 4,428 4,352
NC > 1,310 1,350 29.5 28.0 32,400 38,645 37,800
ND : 630 745 30.5 27.0 12,870 19,215 20,115
OH : 3,770 3,680 36.0 37.0 135,720 135,720 136,160
OK : 235 220 25.0 26.0 4,620 5,875 5,720
PA : 300 285 33.0 40.0 11,275 9,900 11,400
sc : 630 600 22.0 21.0 13,875 13,860 12,600
SD > 2,160 2,250 27.0 30.0 53,760 58,320 67,500
IN : 1,050 950 30.0 30.0 33,750 31,500 28,500
TX : 170 380 31.0 31.0 5,000 5,270 11,780
VA : 500 510 29.0 31.0 16,800 14,500 15,810
WI : 550 710 42.0 39.0 17,630 23,100 27,690
us : 57,951 58,078 34.3 35.8 1,985,564 2,079,487

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-18 NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

1991 1992 1991 : 1992 1990 1991 1992

-- 1,000 Acres -- -~ Bushels -- 9 ----~-- 1,000 Bushels -------
AL : 23 21 55.0 51.0 990 1,265 1,071
AR : 270 380 57.0 72.0 18,150 15,390 27,360
co : 270 190 40.0 41.0 10,340 10,800 7,790
GA : 50 50 50.0 50.0 1,200 2,500 2,500
IL : 173 260 80.0 93.0 14,625 13,840 24,180
Ks : 3,150 3,100 56.0 70.0 184,800 176,400 217,000
KY : 28 18 73.0 86.0 2,604 2,044 1,548
LA : 184 215 55.0 65.0 8,320 10,120 13,975
MS : 70 145 62.0 68.0 5,525 4,340 9,860
MO : 520 750 72.0 83.0 42,640 37,440 62,250
NE : 1,300 1,500 66.0 82.0 108,570 85,800 123,000
NM : 170 180 60.0 60.0 3,250 10,200 10,800
NC : 25 20 50.0 50.0 1,840 1,250 1,000
OK : 300 330 45.0 50.0 16,450 13,500 16,500
sc : 12 10 38.0 40.0 264 456 400
SD : 310 380 42.0 58.0 14,300 13,020 22,040
TM : 65 70 65.0 80.0 4,235 4,225 5,600
TX : 2,900 4,700 61.0 61.0 135,200 176,900 286,700
US 9,820 12,319 59.0 67.7 573,303 579,490 833,574
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1992 A-10 NASS, USDA


Pears: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

: Total Production
Crop and State Proneeeeeennen + --8-nn nne nn nn nnnee

1990 1/ 1991 1/ 1992
Tons
Bartlett :
CA : “314,000 300,000 315,000
OR : 83,000 70,000 75,000
WA : 177,000 160,000 160,000
Total : 574,000 530,000 550,000
Excluding Bartlett :
CA : 18,000 17,000 20,000
OR : 150,000 150,000 155,000
WA : 195,000 176,000 180,000
Total : 363,000 343,000 355,000
All :
CA : 332,000 317,000 335,000
CO 2/ : 2,500 3,100 4,000
CT 2/ : 1,100 1,200 1,450
MI : 2,500 5,000 4,000
NY : 14,600 14,500 19,000
OR 3 233,000 220,000 230,000
PA 2/ : 3,300 5,500 5,000
UT 2/ : 2,800 2,200 3,000
WA H 372,000 336,000 340,000
US : 963,800 904,500 941,450
1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold(tons):
U.S.; 1990 - 150, 1991 - 150.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Roard

August 1992 A-33 NASS, USDA


Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, Hawaii, by Month, 1991-92

-- 1,000 Pounds --

Jun : 3,415 3,800 1,880 2,180 2,895 4,770

Jul : 3,405 3,700 1,950 2,465 3,290 5,250
Aug : 3,675 2,080 3,205
Sep : 3,840 2,095 4,460
Oct : 3,925 2,070 5,380
Nov : 3,975 2,060 4,820
Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-Jul: 24,610 32,460

Hops: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State

and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1,1992
: Area Harvested
State :---- ==
: 1991

: ---- Acres ---- ---- Pounds ---

ID : 4,118 4,000 1,319 1,310 4,050 5,430 5,240
OR : 7,190 7,900 1,415 1,330 10,863 10,174 10,507
WA : 28,245 30,400 1,896 1,710 41,942 53,551 51,984
us : 39,553 42,300 1,748 1,601 56,855 69,155 67,731

Olives: Total Production, California,
1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-30 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Yield per Acre and Production, United States,

1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992 1/ (Domestic Units)

Crop and Unit

Potatoes

Winter Cwt

Spring "

Fall "
Sweet Cherries Ton
Tart Cherries Lb
Apricots Ton
Nectarines (CA) "
Plums (CA) "
Dried Prunes (CA) "
Almonds (CA) Lb
Walnuts (CA) Ton

1991 1992
214 208
236 273
316

2,609
20,636
372,005
151.6
189, 900
95.8
215.0
218.0
187.0
490,000
259.0

1/ 1992 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Summary:

1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992 1/ (Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,

Yield per Hectare Production

CYOP Steen een nner nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nn nnn nnn nnn nena
1991 1992 1991 1992
Metric Tons

Potatoes

Winter 23.96 23.30 118,340 123,470

Spring 26.43 30.61 936,030 1,052,830

Fall 35.40 16,873,860
Sweet Cherries” 137,530 153,770
Tart Cherries 86,140 120,110
Apricots 86,910 99,970
Nectarines (CA) 195,040 217,720
Plums (CA) 197,770 226,800
Dried Prunes (CA) 169,640 181,440
Almonds (CA) 222,260 249,480
Walnuts (CA) 234,960 199,580

1/ 1992 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production
August 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992
(Metric Units)

sYield per Hectare: Production
Crop : : : > Jull, : Aug 1,
1991 : 1992 : 1991 : 1992 : 1992

Metric Tons

Corn for Grain 6.81 7.61 189,860,540 222,566,580
Sorghum for Grain 3.70 4.25 14,719,720 21,173,750
Oats 1.81 2.07 3,520,260 3,721,360 4,011,660

Barley 2.97 2.91 10,113,180 8,086,930 8,598,110
All Wheat 2.31 2.49 53,905,930 60,748,490 63,564,180

Winter 2.34 2.53 37,344,670 42,834,570 43,570,200

Durum 2.19 2.25 2,829,250 2,011,500 2,200,620

Other Spring 2.25 2.43 13,732,010 15,902,420 17,793,360
Rice 6.30 6.28 7,006,050 7,548,320
Soybeans for Beans 2.30 2.41 54,038,200 56,594,360
Peanuts for Nuts 2.74- 2.92 2,234,650 2,065,750
All Cotton 0.73 0.78 3,835,060 3,599,720

Upland 0.73 0.77 3,748,320 3,489,120

Amer-Pima : 0.88 1.05 86,740 110,600
Cottonseed : 6,282,710 5,772,870
All Hay : 5.50 5.44 139,239,250 133,127,550

Alfalfa 2 7.34 7.30 76,017,550 71,078,830

All Other : 4.22 4.21 63,221,700 62,048,710
Dry Edible Beans : 1.98 1.71 1,495,180 1,048,930
Summer Potatoes : 26.09 27.36 1,027,250 928,140 953,220
Tobacco 1/ > 2.44 2.39 754,530 755,630
Sugarbeets : 45.36 46.33 25,484,630 26,527,900
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed : 75.61 76.95 27,445,970 29,645,890
Hops : 1,96 1.79 31,370 30,720
Apples, Comm'1 : 4,489,980 4,562,690 4,607,590
Peaches : 1,212,130 1,139,650 1,141,010
Pears : 820,550 854,110 854,070
Grapes : 5,040,230 5,557,410
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) : 22,770 37,740
Olives (CA) : 58,970 122,470
1l/ 1991 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1992 A-6 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested Production 1
State | }--------------------+--~---------_--+_-------------~ 2 == == 5 ---------
1991 : 1992 1990 1991
: --- 1,000 Acres -- -~- Pounds --  ------- 1,000 Bales 2/ -------
Uptand
AL : 405.0 435.0 655 673 375.0 553.0 610.0
AZ : 359.0 318.0 1,201 1,283 811.0 898.0 850.0
AR : 980.0 960.0 772 800 1,081.0 1,576.0 1,600.0
CA : 977.0 995.0 1,252 1,303 2,734.0 2,548.0 2,700.0
FL : 49.0 50.0 719 780 48.0 73.4 81.3
GA : 427.0 448.0 812 723 405.0 722.0 675.0
KS : 1.8 2.5 347 250 0.7 1.3 1.3
LA : 820.0 880.0 828 818 1,177.0 1,414.0 1,500.0
MS : 1,230.0 1,345.0 888 821 1,850.0 2,275.0 2,300.0
MO : 327.0 343.0 630 700 314.0 429.0 500.0
NM : 65.0 45.0 465 565 95.0 63.0 53.0
NC 457.0 385.0 672 648 263.0 640.0 520.0
OK 380.0 350.0 303 377 382.0 240.0 275.0
sc 210.0 193.0 786 597 145.0 344.0 240.0
IN 610.0 620.0 552 612 495.0 701.0 790.0
1X 5,400.0 3,750.0 419 422 4,965.0 4,710.0 3,300.0
VA 17.7 22.0 765 650 6.2 28.2 29.8
us 12,715.5  11,141.5 650 690 15,146.9 17,215.9 16,025.4
Amer-Pima:
AZ : 103.0 110.0 860 916 194.0 184.5 210.0
CA 64.0 95.0 1,097 1,112 57.4 146.2 220.0
MS 0.6 0.5 560 480 1.6 0.7 0.5
NM 19.4 18.0 470 600 24.5 19.0 22.5
TX 57.0 38.0 404 695 81.0 48.0 55.0
US 244.0 261.5 784 932 358.5 398.4 508.0
All :
AL : 405.0 435.0 655 673 375.0 553.0 610.0
AZ : 462.0 428.0 1,125 1,189 1,005.0 1,082.5 1,060.0
AR : 980.0 960.0 772 800 1,081.0 1,576.0 1,600.0
CA : 1,041.0 1,090.0 1,242 1,286 2,791.4 27694.2 2,920.0
: 49.0 50.0 780 8.0 73.4 81.3
0 448.0 812 723 405.0 722.0 675.0
8 2.5 347 250 0.7 1.3 1.3
0 880.0 828 818 1,177.0 1,414.0 1,500.0
6 1,345.5 888 821 1,851.6 2,275.7 2,300.5
0 343.0 630 700 314.0 429.0 500.0
4 63.0 466 575 119.5 82.0 75.5
0 385.0 672 648 263.0 640.0 520.0
0 350.0 303 377 382.0 240.0 275.0
0 193.0 786 597 145.0 344.0 240.0
0 620.0 552 612 495.0 701.0 790.0
0 3,788.0 419 425 5,046.0 4,758.0 3,355.0
7 22.0 765 650 6.2 28.2 29.8
5 0 652 696 15,505.4 17,614.3 16,533.4
i/ and to be g
2/ = 480- 1 net gaint bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1992 A-19 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested

State :------------+~---~--------------~-~+--~---+--------~---~---+------------
199] 1992 1990 1991 1992

-- 1,000 Acres ~ -- Bushels -~  --------- 1,000 Bushels ---------
210 295 80.0 13,920 16,800 24,190
5 11 170.0 1,120 850 1,760
80 90 100.0 6,935 8,000 9,450
115 125 160.0 25,600 18,400 20,000
840 830 153.0 128,650 128,520 122,840
169 165 106.0 19,780 17,914 18,150
75 110 68.0 §,325 5,100 8,800
550 690 100.0 37,400 55,000 65,550
63 40 =—-125.0 3,900 7,875 53000
11,000 11,000 107.0 1,320,800 1,177,000 1,430,000
5,550 5,900 92.0 703,050 510,600 767,000
12,200 13,100 117.0 1,562,400 1,427,400 1,716,100
1,650 1,700 125.0 188,500 206, 250 229,500
1,250 1,270 89.0 120,000 111,250 147,320
247 285 85.0 21,576 20,995 31,350
450 450 95.0 53,100 42,750 47,250
2,300 2,400 110.0 238,050 253,000 252,000
6,000 6,600 120.0 762,600 720,000 805,200
150 300 75.0 11,200 11,250 27,600
2,200 2,350 97.0 205,800 213,400 265,550
15 17 120.0 855 1,800 2,125
7,800 7,900 127.0 934,400 9903600 1,027,000
0 8,850 8,470 8,960
0 7,975 9,900 10,725
.0 60,760 64,680 82,500
i) 72,760 85,500 85,000
‘0 36,800 51,300 48°750
20 417,450 326,400 443;750
0 10,032 9,350 13,200
0 2,700 2,190 2,100
0 109,610 64,500 105,090
0 15,360 21,675 28,635
i) 234,000 240,500 264,000
0 43,860 43,860 64,480
0 130,500 165,000 159,500
0 2,660 2,940 2,970
8 36,500 28,140 30,400

0

0

0

6

1/ Estimates
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production
August 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Summer Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested :

- 1,000 Acres -

==zn
sop
fe
SN
~

z
=
Ip
—
a
a
ENE WWD EE RADE

=
Zz

POPC ENON EP EUS

BW DOLPOCHRWWUNWRNW DOO

4
>
er

Yield

---- Cwt ----

140
325
295
175
240
160
175
250
295
210
265
190
345
110
240
135

170
350
290
230
260
190
175
260
325
240
280
250
260
115
245
180

2,875
1,830
957
662
1,012
3,400
140
1,950
1,980

23,097

Production

- 1,000 Cwt ------
952 1,190

1,560 1,540
2,036 1,740
1,348 1,564
1,008 1,040

208 304

298 280

2,875 3,120

2,154 2,308

1,323 1,728
636 560
760 875

3,450 910
154 161

2,400 1,715
1,485 1,980

22,647 21,015

/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
/ District I (NW Counties) for 1992 included in fall potatoes.

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by States
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

199] 1992

coo Acres ----- --- Pounds --
CT: 1,750 1,390 1,618 1,556
FL: 6,600 7,600 2,320 2,675
GA : 40,000 43,000 2,015 2,200
IN : 8,800 9,000 2,150 2,200
KY : 223,100 231,000 2,151 2,197
MD: 8,600 10,000 1,500 1,450
MA : 480 490 1,615 1,518
MO : 3,000 1,500 2,275 1,550
NC : 275,000 276,200 2,308 2,171
OH : 10,400 10,800 2,190 2,050
PA : 10,500 10,800 1,978 1,969
SC: 51,000 52,000 2,180 2,050
TN : 61,730 67,160 1,969 1,925
VA : 53,500 52,200 2,184 2,051
WV : 1,900 2,000 1,800 1,800
WI : 7,400 7,400 1,938 1,941
us 763,760 782,540 2,178 2,129
Crop Production
August 1992 A-25

Production

90 1991: 1992

-aH-H 1,000 Pounds ---------
007 2,831 2,163
3044 15,312 20,330
5845 80,600 94,600
,050 18,920 19,800
253 479,794 507,620
5656 12,900 14,500
805 775 744
3928 6,825 2,325
7639 634,655 599,530
9915 22,776 22,140
3780 20,765 21,266
3905 111,180 106,600
218 121,524 129,270
3269 116,849 107,040
720 3,420 3,600
7346 14,338 14,360
3380 =6.1,663,464 1,665,888
Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop ca
e Statistics
Production Service
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Washington, D.C.

Released August 12, 1992, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts
refer to August 1, 1992.

Record High Corn And Soybean Yields

The first corn for grain production forecast of the 1992 season is 8.76 billion
bushels, 17 percent above last year's crop. The U.S. average yield per acre is
Forecast at a record high 121.3 bushels, up 12.7 bushels from last year's
yield.

The first soybean production forecast of the 1992 crop is 2.08 billion bushels,
up 5 percent from the previous year. Yield is expected to be a record high
35.8 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from 1991.

All cotton production for the 1992 season is forecast at 16.5 million bales,

6 percent less than 1991 but 7 percent above the 1990 crop. Texas expects to
harvest only two-thirds of their planted acreage, as cool, wet weather caused
seedling disease and forced producers to abandon cotton acreage and replant to
other crops. California and Arkansas expect record yields.

Al) wheat production is forecast at 2.34 billion bushels, up 5 percent from
July 1, and 18 percent more than 1991. Yields are now expected to average
37.0 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels from July 1.

Sorghum for grain production for 1992 is forecast at 834 million bushels, up
44 percent from 1991 to the highest level since 1986. Yields are expected to
average 67.7 bushels per acre, up 8.7 bushels from last season. Texas growers
have planted an additional 1.10 million acres on failed cotton acres.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
information call (202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (8-92)


destroyed a large portion of the plums. Many locations have virtually no
crop; there are other places where the potential is still good. Also,
pollination was hindered by cool weather, and strong winds did localized
damage to the fruit. Washington's harvest began been earlier than normal.
The crop looks good, with fruit size average to above average. Some areas
experienced a heavy drop.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 5.25 million pounds

in July, 10 percent higher than June and 60 percent higher than July
1991. Year-to-date fresh sales were 32 percent more than the same seven-month
period of 1991. July weather conditions were mostly favorable for papaya
production under a mix of rainfall and sunshine.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,700 acres in July, 3 percent lower
than June but 9 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling
2,465 acres, was 13 percent more than last month and 26 percent more than last
July.

Hops: The production forecast of 67.7 million pounds is 2 percent less than
last year but 19 percent more than 1990.

Hot weather lowered yields in Oregon and Washington. The unseasonably warm
winter and spring in the Washington Yakima Valley resulted in an exceptionally
early hop harvest. Harvest is underway in Idaho.

Olives: The August 1 forecast for the California olive crop is 135,000 tons,

up 108 percent over last year's small crop and up 3 percent over
1990. The crop is expected to be heavy following last year's near record low
production. Harvest should begin by the first week of September.

Peaches: The final production forecast for all peaches is forecast at

2.52 billion pounds, up fractionally from the July 1 forecast but
down 6 percent from 1991. Production of the Freestone crop, excluding
California's Clingstone peaches which are mostly canned, is expected to total
1.42 billion pounds, marginally above the July 1 forecast but 14 percent less
than last year.

California's Clingstone crop, at 1.10 billion pounds, is unchanged from last
month but 7 percent more than last season's crop. Half the crop was harvested
by the end of July and harvest is expected to be over by the end of August.
Fruit size is smaller than expected but quality is good. There are fewer
defects in the fruit than last year but problems with brown rot were noted in
the early and extra early varieties. California's Freestone crop forecast of
640 million pounds is unchanged from July 1 but is 5 percent more than the
1991 crop. Harvest is about 80 percent finished; two to three weeks ahead of
normal. Fruit size is smaller than normal.

Colorado growers are generally pleased about their crop this year. There is
some disease and hail damage. Harvest is well underway. Maryland growers
indicate that crop pollination, set, and fruit development are not as bad as

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-14 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested : Production

199]: 1992 : 199] :---------non-ee nee : 1991 : 1992

1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bushels --
AZ1/  : 20 22 120.0 100.0 100.0 2,400 2,200
cA : 160 170 59.0 60.0 60.0 9,440 10,200
co : 130 120 80.0 82.0 82.0 10,400 9,840
DE1/ : 37 37 68.0 66.0 66.0 2,516 2,442
ID : 790 720 75.0 68.0 68.0 59,250 48,960
KS : 23 18 33.0 40.0 40.0 759 720
KY 1/ : 22 16 55.0 66.0 66.0 1,210 1,056
MD : 78 64 64.0 66.0 73.0 4,992 4,672
MId/ : 33 28 43.0 45.0 45.0 1,419 1,260
MN : 875 675 50.0 60.0 63.0 43,750 42,525
MT : 1,650 1,200 52.0 37.0 44.0 85,800 52,800
NEQ/  : 27 32 45.0 38.0 38.0 1,215 1,216
Wiis: 4 6 90.0 95.0 95.0 360 570
NOI/ oo: 8 8 61.0 57.0 57.0 488 456
NC 1/ 35 30 47.0 68.0 68.0 1,645 2,040
ND : 2,830 2,650 49.0 46.0 49.0 138,670 129,850
OK 1/ 10 8 37.0 37.0 37.0 370 296
OR 175 160 72.0 52.0 60.0 12,600 9,600
PA 70 85 60.0 66.0 69.0 4,200 5,865
se l/ 9 9 31.0 60.0 60.0 279 540
SD 460 370 39.0 40.0 48.0 17,940 17,760
TX 1/ 10 6 32.0 45.0 45.0 320 270
UT 95 110 83.0 78.0 82.0 7,885 9,020
VA 85 90 67.0 73.0 73.0 5,695 6,570
WA 570 440 65.0 45.0 45.0 37,050 19,800
WI 72 80 46.0 52.0 52.0 3,312 4,160
wy 135 140 78.0 75.0 73.0 10,530 10,220
US 8,413 7,294 55.2 50.9 54.1 464,495 394,908

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-12 NASS, USDA


Oats: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested : Yield Production

1991 : 1992 : peeeeeee ence eee > 1991: 1992

-~ 1,000 Bushels --

1,000 Acres

ALL: 25 25 35.0 55.0 55.0 875 1,375
ARI: 30 20 56.0 75.0 75.0 1,680 1,500
CA : 35 35 70.0 75.0 75.0 25450 2,625
co : 30 40 60.0 60.0 60.0 1,800 2,400
GAl/ : 60 55 50.0 65.0 65.0 3,000 3,575
1D : 45 30 68.0 65.0 65.0 3,060 1,950
IL : 120 160 55.0 52.0 59.0 6,600 9,440
IN : 45 40 57.0 63.0 63.0 2,565 2,520
IA 1 425 500 50.0 55.0 63.0 21,250 31,500
KS : jo 150 53.0 52.0 55.0 5,830 8,250
ME : 23 22 60.0 65.0 70.0 1,380 1,540
MO Is: 12 9 35.0 62.0 62.0 420 . 558
MI > 120 120 45.0 48.0 53.0 5,400 6,360
MN : 570 500 40.0 58.0 58.0 22,800 29,000
MO : 32 60 51.0 47.0 51.0 1,632 3,060
MT >: 110 80 55.0 42.0 47.0 6,050 3,760
NE : 220 210 54.0 56.0 64.0 11,880 13,440
NY : 100 110 50.0 65.0 70.0 5,000 7,700
NC : 40 50 55.0 55.0 55.0 2,200 2,750
ND : 650 550 50.0 43.0 50.0 32,500 27,500
oH : 170 190 60.0 66.0 66.0 10,200 12,540
OK 34 50 38.0 42.0 42.0 1,292 2,100
OR 45 42 105.0 94.0 94.0 4,725 3,948
PA 210 205 40.0 69.0 65.0 8,400 13,325
SC 1/ 40 35 55.0 65.0 65.0 2,200 2,275
sD 700 700 55.0 48.0 56.0 38,500 39,200
1X 180 170 40.0 46.0 46.0 7,200 7,820
UT 1/ 8 15 77.0 70.0 70.0 616 1,050
WA 40 30 65.0 50.0 50.0 2,600 1,500
WwW 1/ 5 5 45.0 50.0 50.0 225 250
WI 530 555 50.0 50.0 54.0 26,500 29,970
wy : 32 32 53.0 50.0 50.0 1,696 1,600
US 4,796 4,795 50.6 53.5 57.6 242,526 276,381

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-11 NASS, USDA


record high yield. Data from California's objective yield survey shows cotton
fields having the third highest large bol] count in the past 10 years and both
California and Arizona had the largest small boll population since 1982. Wet,
cool weather adversely affected New Mexico's crop development. One-half of
Arizona's crop was in good condition and one-third was rated excellent on
August 2. In California, one-fourth of the crop was in excellent condition on
the same date. Boll set in both States was 4 percent ahead of the 5-year
average.

The forecast in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and
South Carolina) puts production at 2.05 million bales, 9 percent less than
production a year earlier. Yields in the region are expected to average

672 pounds per harvested acre, 5] pounds below last year's high yields.

Spring rains enabled the crop to germinate well and result in generally good
stands, but dry weather in the Carolina's caused crop condition to deteriorate
during July. Boll set in North Carolina, at 62 percent, was nearly 20 percent
Tess than the average.

American-Pima cotton yields are higher than last year in all States except
Mississippi. Nationally, Pima cotton yield is 932 pounds, up 148 pounds from
1991. Beneficial weather has caused the crop to be in good condition.

Ginnings totaled 14,200 running bales prior to August 1, 1992, compared with
137,100 running bales ginned to the same date last year, and 119,793 running
bales in 1990.

Cottonseed: Production for 1992, based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio,
is expected to total 6.36 million tons, down 8 percent from
1991's large production of 6.93 million tons.

Dry Edible Beans: The 1992 crop of dry beans is expected to total
23.1 million cwt, down 30 percent from last year and
29 percent below two years ago. Area for harvest, forecast at 1.52 million
acres, is down 19 percent from a year ago. Yields are projected at
1,526 pounds per acre, down 244 pounds from the 1991 average.

Planted acreage totals 1.58 million acres, down 17 percent from a year ago and
1 percent below the June mid-year estimate. All classes except light red
kidney, cranberry, black turtle soup, and garbanzo beans show acreage
declines. Navy bean acreage is off 14 percent, pinto bean plantings dropped
20 percent, great northern acreage fell 31 percent, and dark red kidney beans
are down 24 percent.

Yields are generally down from last year across the U.S. and beans are
developing later than normal especially across the northern and plains States.
The Michigan crop is two to three weeks late with uneven growth because of low
July temperatures and excessive rains. Continued cool and rainy weather in
New York could also reduce yields. In North Dakota, development fell behind
normal in cool July weather. By August 1, none of the beans were fully podded
compared with last year's 44 percent. The late season in Wisconsin and
Minnesota has made it difficult for farmers to predict yields.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-10 NASS, USDA


Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992 1/

Total Production

State tae --- 2-2-2 2-22 ---- --- = --- 5 $$ $= 55-5 eo eee nne
1990 2/ 1991 2/ 1992
Million Pounds

AZ 3/ 64.0 57.0 85.0
AR 3/ 12.0 10.0 11.0
CA 780.0 800.0 820.0
co 35.0 75.0 90.0
CT 33.0 27.0 40.0
DE 3/ 17.0 25.0 20.0
GA 3/ 22.0 32.0 25.0
1D 165.0 120.0 95.0
IL 60.0 69.0 70.0
IN 57.0 60.0 56.0
IA 3/ 9.5 8.0 9.0
KS 3/ 8.0 7.5 6.0
KY 3/ 9.0 20.0 10.0
ME 88.0 87.0 91.0
MD 33.0 42.0 40.0
MA : 85.0 80.0 88.0
MI : 750.0 930.0 750.0
MN 3/ : 20.0 25.4 31.0
MO : 41.0 40.0 37.0
NH : 48.0 48.0 53.0
NJ 60.0 92.0 60.0
NM 3/ 6.8 2.3 12.0
NY 990.0 1,050.0 1,100.0
NC 230.0 260.0 210.0
OH 120.0 120.0 120.0
OR 180.0 120.0 185.0
PA 450.0 550.0 540.0
RI 6.0 5.5 6.0
SC 3/ 34.0 40.0 45.0
TN 3/ 8.5 13.0 12.0
UT 3/ 24.0 55.0 62.0
VT 43.0 48.0 47.0
VA 210.0 420.0 370.0
WA 4,800.0 4,300.0 4,700.0
WV 150.0 200.0 200.0
WI 48.0 60.0 62.0
US 9,696.8 9,898.7 10, 158.0

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.

2/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
United States; 1990-38.6, 1991-61.8.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-32 NASS, USDA


thought earlier in the season. New York peach harvest has begun. Early
varieties show split pits and internal breakdown due to the extremely cool,
wet growing season. Pennsylvania's crop looks good and is sizing well.
Ripening of the fruit is late due to cool, wet weather. Set is lighter than
last year. South Carolina's crop was 71 percent harvested by August 1,
compared with 76 percent last year and the 5-year average of 74 percent.
Virginia expects a good crop despite late season frost, cool weather during
pollination which hindered bee activity, and hail at harvest. Most trees had
excellent fruit set with size and quality good to excellent. Fruit size is
good in West Virginia. There has been some wind and hail damage to the crop
recently.

Apples: The Nation's apple crop forecast was raised 1 percent from the
duly 1 figure to 10.2 billion pounds and is 3 percent above the
1991 crop.

Production in the Eastern States is forecast at 2.94 billion pounds,
fractionally more than the July 1 forecast but 2 percent less than last year's
production. In New England, set and drop were generally moderate with limited
disease and insect problems. Hail damage was scattered. In Maryland, last
year's drought combined with this year's cool, wet, spring combined to lower
that State's crop. Weather conditions in New Jersey improved to increase
prospects for a more favorable crop. The New York crop is developing about
two weeks behind normal due to the cold, wet July. Hand thinning of the large
crop continues. Pennsylvania's crop is reported to be sizing well, but the
season is Jate because of cool, wet weather. There were some reports of
damage due to mites, hail storms, and rust. Growers in the Shenandoah Valley
of Virginia appear to have a good crop, while growers in the southern part of
the State were hurt by the cold, wet spring, which hampered fruit set.

Harvest in that area will be delayed.

Production in the Central States, forecast at 1.17 billion pounds, is up

1 percent from the July 1 forecast but 14 percent less than the year earlier
total. In Indiana, trees that were not hurt by April's frost are doing well.
Summer apples are running late. Insects and fungus are light. July rains
have helped the crop and apples are of a good size. The potential of the
Michigan crop varies widely across the State and even within orchards. Some
varieties were severely hurt by May frosts, while others survived relatively
unscathed. All areas of Wisconsin experienced some frost damage this spring.
Hardest hit were the northwestern and some east central orchards. Hail damage
was reported on some of the orchards in the east central area as well. Dry
weather early in the growing season and cool weather during June and July have
caused apple size to be smaller than normal. This small size is partially
offset by a good set. The biggest concern now is for warmer weather as the
crop is at least 1 week late.

Production in the Western States is placed at 6.05 billion pounds, up

1 percent from the July 1 forecast and 9 percent more than the 1991 crop. The
anticipated record high California crop continues to develop well. Harvest of
early season varieties has begun. Colorado's prospects were limited by hail
damage in May. In Oregon, development continues 2 to 3 weeks ahead of normal.
Harvest of the earliest varieties started in the Willamette Valley. Some
locations were more severely damaged by April freezes than previously thought

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-15 NASS, USDA


Peaches: Total Production by State and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Total Production

State po----------------------------------+--------------------------
1990 1/ 1991 1/ 1992
Million Pounds

AL 2/ : 12.0 16.0 13.0
AR 2/ : 18.0 12.0 12.0
CA-Freestone : 600.0 610.0 640.0
co : 17.0 2.0 18.0
CT 2/ : 3.6 3.4 3.5
DE 2/ : 0.2 3.0 3.0
GA 2/ : 130.0 150.0 130.0
ID 2/ 3/ 4.7 2.5
IL : 0.3 19.5 16.0
IN 2/ : 0.8 4.6 3.0
KS 2/ : 0.1 5.0 0.5
KY 2/ 3/ : 4.0 4.0
LA 2/ : 4.0 5.0 3.5
MD : 4.0 15.0 12.0
MA 2/ : 2.0 2.0 2.0
MI : 45.0 40.0 40.0
MO 2/ : 0.7 11.0 6.0
NJ : 45.0 115.0 85.0
NY : 14.0 15.0 13.5
NC 2/ : 10.0 35.0 12.0
OH 2/ : 5.5 5.8 7.0
OK 2/ : 8.0 31.0 5.3
OR 2/ : 14.5 13.0 15.0
PA : 76.0 100.0 85.0
sc : 110.0 310.0 145.0
TN 2/ 2 1.3 6.5 2.7
TX 2/ : 24.0 32.0 27.0
UT 2/ : 12.0 2.5 11.0
VA : 2.5 26.0 25.0
WA : 53.0 30.0 55.0
Ww : 3.0 18.0 18.0
Total Above : 1,221.2 1,642.3 1,415.5
CA-Clingstone 4/: 1,012.0 1,030.0 1,100.0
US Total 2,233.2 2,672.3 2,515.5

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
U.S., excluding CA clingstone peaches, 1990 - 36.6, 1991 - 120.5.

2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

3/ No significant production due to frost in ID for 1991 and KY for 1990.

4/ CA clingstone is over the scale tonnage and includes culls and cannery
diversions (million pounds): 1990 - 57.0; 1991 - 60.0.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-31 NASS, USDA


Selected Crops: Area Planted, by State
and United States, 1990-92
Dry
Edible

State Soybeans Sorghum

,000 Acres

AL 440.0 280.0 28.0
AZ 320.0 110.0
AR 980.0 3,200.0 400.0
CA 1,000.0 95.0 *125.0
co *155.0 240.0
DE 220.0
FL *50.5 55.0
GA 450.0 650.0 90.0
ID 85.0
IL *9,500.0 270.0
IN 4,550.0
IA 8,100.0
KS 3.0 20.0 1,900.0 3,300.0
KY 1,180.0 22.0
LA 900.0 1,200.0 230.0
MD 555.0
MI *330.0 1,450.0
MN 90.0 5,500.0
MS 1,350.0 a.) 1,850.0 160.0
MO 350.0 4,300.0 800.0
MT 8.0
NE 165.0 2,500.0 1,650.0
NM 60.0 18.0 14.0 200.0
NJ 130.0
NY 35.0
NC 390.0 1,400.0 40.0
ND 430.0 750.0
OH 3,700.0
OK *370.0 240.0 360.0
OR *6.1
PA 290.0
sc 195.0 620.0 25.0
SD 2,300.0 580.0
TN : 625.0 1,000.0 75.0
TX : *§,650.0 *40.0 35.0 *400.0 *5,000.0
UT : 6.0
VA *22.0 530.0
WA 36.0
WI *8.7 750.0
WY 34.0

Year United States
1990 12,116.8 231.3 2,177.6 57,795.0 10,535.0
1991 13,801.7 250.4 1,909.1 59,060.0 11,014.0
1992 : 13,155.5 263.5 1,582.8 59,100.0 13,470.0

* Updated from "Acreage" released June 30, 1992.

Crop Production
August 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board

A-8 NASS, USDA


All Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested Production

State t---- 222 -- n-nonane nn nnn nnn nnn nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nn nner tena
1991 1992 1991
-- 1,000 Acres -- --- Tons ---- 0 -------- 1,000 Tons
AL 780 710 2.10 1.90 1,125 1,638 1,349
Al 200 170 7.13 6.96 1,421 1,426 1,183
AR 1,100 1,100 2.22 2.43 1,738 2,444 2,673
CA 1,680 1,460 5.13 5.16 8,307 8,610 7,540
co 1,500 1,420 2.71 2.96 3,805 4,062 4,210
CT 84 90 2.08 2.19 198 175 197
DE 20 20 2.65 2.95 68 53 59
FL 230 250 3.00 3.00 552 690 750
GA 600 600 3.00 3.00 1,140 1,800 1,800
1D 1,230 1,120 3.49 3.43 4,084 4,294 3,840
IL 950 1,000 3.33 3.46 3,348 3,162 3,460
IN 675 680 2.56 2.97 2,220 1,725 2,022
TA 1,800 1,800 3.49 3.01 7,095 6,285 5,413
KS 2,500 2,450 2.01 2.46 6,100 5,030 6,025
ky 2,300 2,150 2.23 2.32 4,848 5,125 4,995
LA 300 280 2.50 2.40 660 750 672
ME 221 230 1.73 1.60 423 382 367
MD 215 220 2.35 3.34 678 505 735
MA 103 103 2.17 2.17 233 223 223
MI 1,450 1,400 3.62 3.23 5,335 5,255 4,515
MN 2,450 2,200 3.30 2.79 6,560 8,090 6,130
MS 720 700 2.50 2.70 1,035 1,800 1,890
MO 3,700 3,600 1,92 1.77 6,865 7,110 6,365
MT 2,400 2,300 2.16 2.07 4,495 5,190 4,755
NE 3,600 3,650 2.08 2.13 7,205 7,473 7,788
NV 475 390 2.44 3.11 1,359 1,158 1,212
NH 76 78 1.99 2.00 159 151 156
NJ 114 117 2.19 2.25 246 250 263
NM 330 320 4.24 4.36 1,376 1,400 1,396
NY 1,950 1,950 2.10 2.43 4,377 4,102 4,736
NC 520 530 2.26 2.14 1,011 1,176 1,134
ND 3,300 3,000 1.45 1.16 3,745 4,780 3,480
OH 1,300 1,400 2.42 3.25 4,620 3,150 4,550
OK 2,400 2,350 1.88 2.07 3,926 4,520 4,876
OR 1,075 1,060 2.75 2.63 2,826 2,955 2,784
PA 1,890 1,890 2.13 2.63 4,719 4,026 4,980
RI 7 7 2.29 2.36 18 16 17
sc 260 230 2.60 2.20 456 676 506
so 4,550 4,000 1.77 1.50 6,300 8,045 6,000
TN 1,650 1,600 1.98 2.06 3,255 3,263 3,298
TX 3,800 3,800 2.55 2.55 8,000 9,700 9,700
UT 640 630 3.55 3.51 2,123 2,275 2,212
VT 350 370 2.02 2.24 772 708 827
VA 1,140 1,190 1.98 2.14 2,600 2,260 2,541
WA 780 770 3.81 3.78 3,056 2,970 2,914
WV : 520 540 1.69 1.98 1,142 877 1,070
WI : 3,300 3,250 2.75 2.12 9,120 9,060 6,875
WY : 1,340 1,280 1.99 1.77 2,076 2,670 2,266
US : 62,575 60,455 2.45 2.43 146,820 153,485 146,748
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1992 A-22 NASS, USDA


The crop was heading earlier than usual in the Delta, but was later than
normal in the southern Plains. Harvest began in southern Texas early in the
month. Cooler-than-normal weather in the Great Plains and middle Mississippi
Valley during July kept crop development behind schedule. Heading was

40% complete in the 12 major producing States by August 2, 12 points behind
last year and 10 points behind the 5-year average. Twenty-one percent of the
grain sorghum was coloring, the same as last year. Harvest was winding down
in south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

In early July, rice was heading ahead of schedule in the southern Delta, but
was late in Texas. Rice crop development during the month remained ahead of
schedule for the five major producing States, despite the lateness of the
Texas crop. By August 2, rice was 56% headed in the five major States,

12 points ahead of both last year and the average. Harvest was underway in
Louisiana and Texas, and was 6% complete for the five States. Rains were
slowing harvest in southern Louisiana.

Corn for Grain: The first forecast_of the 1992 corn for grain crop is

8.76 billion bushels, 17 percent above last year's crop. The
U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at a record high 121.3 bushels, up
12.7 bushels from jast year’s yield. The area to be harvested for grain, at
72.2 million acres, is 5 percent above 1991 but virtually unchanged from the
June acreage estimate.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION
1983 - 1992

0 BILLION BUSHELS

8.88 8.76

8.23
787 SSL 753 223

Sopygi 129.. Le

8.00 | ,

6.00} SQ

oN
2.00 NININ iN INN NINN

0.00
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92
YEAR

Lill

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-5 NASS, USDA


Good planting conditions allowed most growers to plant their crops early, but
dry conditions during late May and early June slowed development. Frosts
during late June also hindered growth in several States. More than adequate
rainfall in the Corn Belt during July has produced excellent vegetative
growth. For the week ending August 2, 1992, 76 percent of the crop was
reported silking compared with an average of 85 percent. Silking is well
behind normal in Michigan, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Late crops
in these States could be damaged by an early frost. Stalk counts are at near
record levels as are projected ears per acre.

Record or record tying yields are expected in Alabama, Florida, Kentucky,
Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, New York, and Oklahoma.

Sorghum for Grain: The initial production forecast for 1992 is 834 million

bushels, up 44 percent from 1991 and the highest level
since 1986. Acres for grain, at 12.3 million, are up 10 percent from the mid-
year acreage solely due to Texas growers planting sorghum on failed cotton
acreage in the Plains. Sorghum yields are forecast at 67.7 bushels per acre,
equaling the second highest average on record and up 8.7 bushels from last
year.

Heading had reached 40 percent as of August 2, in the 12 major producing
States. This trails average progress by 10 points.

Oats: Production of oats is forecast at 276 million bushels, up 8 percent
from last month and 14 percent above the 1991 crop. The expected yield

per acre is forecast at 57.6 bushels, compared with last season's

50.6 bushels. Area harvested and to be harvested, at 4.80 million acres, is

virtually the same as in 1991.

Expected yields in Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin were up
significantly from last month.

Barley: Total production is forecast at 395 million bushels, up 6 percent

from last month but 15 percent below the 1991 crop. The expected
yield per acre is forecast at 54.1 bushels, compared with last season's
55.2 bushels. Area harvested and to be harvested, at 7.29 million acres, is
down 13 percent from last year's 8.41 million acres.

Forecasted yields were higher than last month in Minnesota, Montana, and North
Dakota.

All Wheat: Production is forecast at 2.34 billion bushels as of August 1.

This is up 5 percent from July 1 and up 18 percent from 1991.
Yields are 37.0 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels from July 1 and 2.7 bushels
More than last year. Area for grain is 63.1 million acres, up 9 percent from
1991.

Winter Wheat: The last 1992 forecast of winter wheat production is
1.60 billion bushels, up 2 and 17 percent from July 1 and 1991,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-6 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The "Hazelnut Production" report for 1992 will be released on August 24. The
report, which had been tentatively scheduled for release August 26, will be
released earlier because of advanced crop maturity in Oregon.

The initial forecast for the 1992-93 California Navel Orange crop will be in
the September "Crop Production" report. This will be released on

September 10, 1992. Industry funding (which was not available in 1991) was
received in 1992 to conduct an objective measurement survey which provides the
data for the forecast.

The next "Crop Production” report will be released on September 10, 1992, at
3:00 p.m. ET.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head 202) 720-3843

Herb Eldridge - Sugar, Tobacco, Hay 202) 720-7621

Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds 202) 720-9526

Martin Owens - Rice, Weekly Crop Weather 1305 720-2157

Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat 202) 720-8068

Charles Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Steve Ropel, Head (5023 720-3843
Jim Brewster - Fruits 202) 720-7688

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions 1303 720-4285
Kirby Cavett - Peanuts 202) 720-8843

Kevin Hintzman - Fruits, Citrus, Nuts 13003 720-5412
Roger Latham - Cotton 202) 720-5944

Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-3843

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1992 B-21 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992 1/

1991 : 1992

-- 1,000 Acres -- = ---- Tans ---- ------- 1,000 Tons -------
CA : 159.0 150.0 4,334 3,927 3,900
co H 40.2 40.0 944 965 908
ID : 195.0 200.0 4,836 5,070 5,000
MI : 166.0 174.0 3,266 2,573 3,219
MN : 363.0 371.0 5,387 6,171 6,678
MT : 56.3 55.8 1,240 1,312 1,283
NE : 78.6 77.8 1,491 1,572 1,439
ND : 193.9 193.0 2,782 3,568 3,474
OH : 18.5 20.7 355 296 331
OR : 18.6 22.0 488 525 506
aps : 30.5 39.2 1,017 671 978
Wy : 66.4 69.7 1,308 1,365 1,464
Oth :
Sts 2/ : 2.2 1.8 35.0 34.4 65 77 62
US : 1,388.2 1,414.9 20.2 20.7 27,513 28,092 29,242

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Included NM and WA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested Production 1/

- 1,000 Acres - ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons

FL > 443.0 450.0 34.9 33.5 15,407 15,461 15,075
HI : 74.0 72.0 81.9 87.0 6,723 6,063 6,264
LA : «345.0 390.0 22.1 26.0 5,056 7,620 10,140
TX : 34.9 40.0 31.8 30.0 950 1,110 1,200
us : 896.9 952.0 33.7 34.3 28,136 30,254 32,679
1/ Net tons.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1992 A-28 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992
(Domestic Units)

Production

Jul 1, : Aug l,

Crop and Unit : : :
1991 ; 1992 : 1991: 1992 : 1992

Corn for Grain Bu: 108.

6 121.3 7,474, 480 8,762,060
Sorghum for Grain " : 59.0 67.7 579,490 833,574
Oats "—; 50.6 57.6 242,526 256,381 276,381
Barley " : 55.2 54.1 464,495 371,430 394,908
All Wheat "3 34.3 37.0 1,980,704 2,232,125 2,335,584

Winter " : 34.8 37.6 1,372,182 1,573,901 1,600,931

Durum "3 32.5 33.5 103,957 73,910 80,859

Other Spring " + 33.4 36.1 504,565 584,314 653,794
Rice 1/ Cwt : 5,617 5,607 154,457 166,412
Soybeans for Beans Bu : 34.3 35.8 1,985,564 2,079,487
Peanuts for Nuts Lb : 2,444 2,602 4,926,570 4,554,200
All Cotton if Bale: 652 696 17,614.3 16,533.4

Upland lj": 650 690 17,215.9 16,025.4

Amer~Pima i“ oo: 784 932 398.4 508.0
Cottonseed Ton : 6,925.5 6,363.5
AY) Hay “or 2,45 2.43 153,485 146,748

Alfalfa "3.28 3.25 83,795 78,351

AY1 Other * 3 1.88 1,88 69,690 68,397
Dry Edible Beans 1/ Cwt : 1,770 1,526 32,963 23,125
Summer Potatoes Cwt : 233 244 22,647 20, 462 21,015
Tobacco 2/ Lb : 2,178 2,129 1,663,464 1,665,888
Sugarbeets Ton : 20.2 20.7 28,092 29,242
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed "3 33.7 34.3 30,254 32,679
Hops Lb : 1,748 1,601 69,155.4 67,731.0
Pasture and Range :

Feed 3/ Pet : 76 86
Apples, Comm'] Lb : 9,898,700 10,059,000 10,158,000
Peaches "oy 2,672,300 2,512,500 2,515,500
Pears Ton : 904.5 941.5 941.5
Grapes "oo: §,555.9 6,126.0
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) nt 25.1 41.6
Olives (CA) noo: 65.0 135.0

1/ Yield in pounds.

2/ 1991 revised.

3/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1981~90
average is 74 percent.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-4 NASS, USDA


In the Minnesota and North Dakota's Red River Valley area, total production is
up 4 percent from last year. The average yield for the two States is 0.5 ton
per acre above 1991.

In California, Planting was completed by the end of June under favorable
weather conditions. Stands have been thinned and current activities include
irrigating and treating for aphids and mildew. Harvest was underway in the
San Jouquin district early in July.

The Michigan crop has been slow to develop due to cool weather. Some
replanting was required as a result of varied weather conditions. Overall,
the crop is considered to be in good condition.

In Wyoming, topsoil moisture supplies have been adequate over most of the

State. In some areas where adequate moisture was not available, some fields

were disked under and planted to dry beans. Heavy crusting and cutworm

infestation forced replanting and spraying in the northwestern part of the
ate.

Sugarcane: Sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1992 is forecast at
32.7 million tons, up 8 percent from last year. Louisiana is

expecting a 33 percent increase in production. Hawaii and Texas are expecting
production increases of 3 percent and 8 percent, respectively. Florida is
expecting a 2 percent reduction in production. The U.S. harvested acreage is
expected to total 952,000 acres, up 6 percent from 1991. All States except
Hawaii recorded acreage increases. The forecasted yield of 34.3 tons per acre
is up 0.6 ton from a year earlier.

Florida weather has generally been favorable for good growth. The recent
heavy rains have caused little flooding loss. Moisture supplies have been
ample. Cool weather early in the growing season may have reduced yield
prospects on some acreage.

In Hawaii, conditions during the first half of 1992 have been more favorable
than in previous years. Yields are expected to total 87.0 tons per acre, up
5.1 tons from 1991.

Excellent growing conditions have been reported in Louisiana. Average yields,
at 26.0 tons per acre, are up 3.9 tons from a year earlier.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on
August 1 for the 48 contiguous States, was

86 percent, 10 points above August 1, 1991, and 12 points above the

1981-90 averages. Conditions were above last year in 34 States, below last

year in 13 States, and the same in one State.

Conditions in Nevada were reported in the severe drought range. California,
Idaho, Oregon, and Washington pastures and ranges were reported in the very
poor range. Conditions in the rest of the country were reported in the poor
to fair or in the good to excellent ranges.

Prunes and Plums: Production in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is
expected to total 41,600 tons, 66 percent more than a year
ago but 13 percent less than 1990.

Although the Idaho crop was damaged by an early April frost, it is expected to
be larger than last year's. In Michigan, Memorial Day weekend frosts

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-13 NASS, USDA


Nebraska dry beans are behind last year because of dry weather in the spring
and a cool, wet July. Continued wet, cool weather has the Colorado crop ten
days to two weeks behind normal. By August 1, 35 percent of the acres were
flowering compared with over half in a normal year. Wyoming growers report
hail damage to their crop particularly in the southeast. Kansas beans are
mostly irrigated and appear to be in better condition than a year ago. Timely
rains in Utah's dryland bean area could improve yields but harvest is still a
Jong time away. Idaho and Washington growers expect slightly lower yields
than last year. In California, harvest of early beans is in progress.
Weather has been nearly ideal.

All Hay: Production is forecast at 147 million tons, a decrease of 4 percent

from last year. The smaller production is the result of both lower
yields and decreased acreage. Area for harvest, totaling 60.5 million acres,
is down 3 percent from 1991. The forecasted average yield of 2.43 tons per
acre compares with last year's average of 2.45 tons per acre.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: The United States production is forecast at

78.4 million tons, 6 percent below last year.
The total area cut and to be cut, at 24.1 million acres, is down 6 percent
from 1991. Yields are expected to average 3.25 tons per acre, down 0.03 ton
from the 1991 average yield.

All Other Hay: Production of all other hay is expected to total 68.4 million
tons. This level is 2 percent Jess than a year ago. Area

harvested is expected to total 36.4 million acres, 2 percent below last year.

Yield per acre is expected to average 1.88 tons per acre, unchanged from 1991.

Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 21.0 million
cwt, 3 percent above July and down 7 percent from last year.

Farmers expect to harvest 86,100 acres during the summer season, a decrease of

12 percent from a year earlier. Yields are expected to be up 11] cwt per acre.

Harvest is active in most growing areas with yields turning out better than
expected a month ago. In the Midwest, East Coast, and South, warm July
weather made up for cool, wet conditions that prevailed earlier. Alabama
rowers reported good yields with favorable weather for late growth and
arvest. In Delaware, the crop is sizing well as a result of a warm July.
Virginia, with harvest ending in early August, has had good size and quality.
Cool nights and adequate moisture helped Michigan's potatoes, although there
was some localized water damage.

With harvest just starting in Colorado, mild temperatures allowed the summer
crop to make steady progress. Active harvest continued in California's Delta,
Kern, and southern districts with good quality. In Texas and nearby New
Mexico, hail and rain earlier in the season proved more damaging than expected
leading to poor yields. Missouri farmers are disking some fields because of
ow prices.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1992 is forecast at 1.67 billion
pounds, virtually unchanged from 1991. Harvested acres are
estimated at 2 percent above the previous year. Yields are expected to average

2,129 pounds per acre, 49 pounds below 1991.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 883 million pounds, 1 percent below

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-11 NASS, USDA


Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested Production

1991 : 1992 : 1991

1,000 Acres = -------- -- 1,000 Bushels --
AZ I/ : 39 44 95.0 85.0 85.0 3,705 3,740
CAl/ : 32 55 105.0 95.0 95.0 3,360 5,225
MN : 30 10 32.0 45.0 45.0 960 450
MT : 179 129 33.0 27.0 30.0 5,907 3,870
ND : 2,850 2,150 31.0 28.0 31.0 88,350 66,650
sD : 67 28 25.0 29.0 33.0 1,675 924
US : 3,197 2,416 32.5 30.6 33.5 103, 957 80,859

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested : Yield : Production

1991 : 1992 : 1991

: - 1,000 Acres - -- 1,000 Bushels ~-

col/ : 36 45 75.0 80.0 80.0 2,700 3,600
1D : 460 670 71.0 70.0 70.0 32,660 46,900
MN : 2,070 2,750 31.0 42.0 44.0 64,170 121,000
MT : 2,400 2,400 34.0 22.0 28.0 81,600 67,200
Nol; : 4 5 75.0 70.0 70.0 300 350
ND : 6,850 9,100 31.0 31.0 35.0 212,350 318,500
OR1/ : 46 100 50.0 47.0 47.0 2,300 4,700
SS) : 1,750 2,550 28.0 23.0 28.0 49,000 71,400
UTl/ ss: 23 23 49.0 48.0 48.0 1,127 1,104
WA : 1,450 430 40.0 41.0 42.0 58,000 18,060
WId/ : 7 20 34.0 34.0 34.0 238 680
Wod/: 4 10 30.0 30.0 30.0 120 300
US : 15,100 18,103 33.4 32.3 36.1 504,565 653,794

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-15 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Production

1991 1992 1990 1991

~- 1,000 Acres -- -~ Pounds --- -~ 1,000 Cwt --~--~----

AR : 1,260.0 1,320.0 5,300 5,300 60,000 66,780
CA: ~—- 325.0 370.0 7,800 7,800 30,429 25,350
LA: ~— «510.0 590.0 4,850 4,900 26,469 24,735
MS: = 220.0 235.0 5,600 5,400 14,250 12,320
MO: 92.0 105.0 5,100 5,200 3,760 4,692

TX : 343.0 348.0 6,000 5,900 21.180 20,580
: 2,750.0 2,968.0

5,607 156,088 154,457

Rice: Production by Class, United States
1990-1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All
a 1,000 twtt=“‘:éSOS*‘;:W
1990 : 107,806 47,328 954 156,088
1991 : 109,049 44,589 820 154,457
1992 lf  : 118,861 46,898 653 166,412

1/ Indicated August 1, 1992, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Area Planted and Harvested, United States,

1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted

Area Harvested 1/

Crop freee nner enn nen en ene ne nen nnn nnn nn enn nnn nnn nnn -- ne
1991 1992 1991 1992
1,000 Acres
Corn : 75,951 79,335 68,842 72,223
Sorghum : 11,014 13,470 9,820 12,319
Oats : 8,654 8,026 4,796 4,795
Barley : 8,941 7,782 8,413 7,294
Al] Wheat : 69,906 72,327 57,693 63,069
Winter : 51,049 51,097 39,396 42,550
Durum 3,253 2,472 3,197 2,416
Other Spring 15,604 18,758 15,100 18,103
Rice 2,857.0 3,025.0 2,750.0 2,968.0
Soybeans 59,060 59,100 57,95) 58,078
Peanuts 2,039.2 1,777.5 2,015.7 1,750.0
All Cotton > 14,052.1 13,419.0 12,959.5 11,403.0
Upland : 13,801.7 13,155.5 12,715.5 11,141.5
Amer-Pima : 250.4 263.5 244.0 261.5
All Hay 62,575 60,455
Alfalfa 25,585 24,073
All Other 36,990 36,382
Dry Edible Beans 1,909.1 1,582.8 1,862.7 1,515.0
Summer Potatoes 100.9 88.6 97.3 86.1
Tobacco 2/ 763.8 782.5
Sugarbeets 1,427.4 1,440.2 1,388.2 1,414.9
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed 896.9 952.0
Hops 39.6 42.3
1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ 1991 revised.
Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992 1/ (Domestic Units)
Area Planted Area Harvested
CYOP Sennen enna nar wr tr nner stn r rene rent nner entree
1991 1992 1991 1992
1,000 Acres
Rye 1,671 1,577 396 391
Sunflower 2,743 2,124 2,670 2,062
Flaxseed 351 191 337 182
Potatoes
Winter 13.2 13.2 12.2 13.1
Spring 90.2 87.8 87.5 85.0
Fall 1,203.7 1,137.6 1,177.9 1,121.6
Sweetpotatoes 81.2 84.0 77.8 80.7

1/ 1992 estimates carried forward

Crop Production
August 1992

from earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


producing States. Rains across the eastern United States throughout the month
frequently interrupted harvest, keeping progress behind schedule. Hail
damaged some central and southern Great Plains acreage at mid-month. Winter
wheat harvest was 85 percent (%) complete in the 19 major producing States by
August 2, 2 percentage points behind last year and 4 points behind the 5-year
average. Harvest was in full swing despite rains in Michigan and Ohio, and
gaining momentum in the northern Rocky Mountains and Great Plains. Limited
acreage remained for harvest in the central Great Plains and middle
Mississippi Valley.

Progress of spring wheat heading was behind schedule at the start of July, and
below-normal temperatures in the northern Rocky Mountains and Great Plains
throughout the month kept crop progress behind. Periodic showers during the
month benefited the crop, particularly late-seeded acreage. Harvest began in
Idaho and South Dakota late in the month and was commencing in Minnesota by
August. Harvest was 2% complete by August 2, 17 percentage points behind last
year and 25 points behind the historic average.

Despite early planting, progress of corn silking was behind normal entering
July. Silking was prevalent in the Southeast, but was behind schedule in the
Corn Belt. July rains relieved critical shortages of soil moisture and
improved crop condition. Relatively cool weather during the month delayed
corn crop development, with the most dramatic delays occurring in the northern
Corn Belt. Silking progressed to 76% of the acreage in the 17 major producing
States by August 2, 13 points behind last year and 9 points behind the
average. Sixteen percent of the crop was in the dough stage, compared with
40% last year and 30% average. Harvest was active between rains in the
extreme South.

Soybean progress was also behind schedule entering July, with blooms appearing
later than usual in most States. Second-crop planting was active in the
middle Mississippi Valley and Delta during much of the month, as rains kept
early-season grain harvests behind schedule. By the end of the month, soybean
progress remained behind in the northern producing States but was ahead of
schedule in the Delta. Seventy-six percent of the crop acreage was blooming
in the 19 major States, 3 points behind last year and 1 point behind the
average. Pods were setting on 32% of the acreage, 18 points behind last year
and 14 points behind the average. Crop condition was predominately good.

Replanting of failed cotton acreage on the Texas plains was completed early in
July, and crop progress was near normal in the 14 major producing States. The
crop was developing ahead of schedule in the Delta, but was behind in the
southern Atlantic Coast States. Rains improved crop condition during the
month, but some acreage in New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas remained in poor or
very poor condition due to earlier storm damage. By the end of the month,
cotton progress remained well behind normal in the southern Plains and was
somewhat delayed in the Southeast. Squaring was 89% complete in the 14 major
producing States, compared with 95% last year and 96% average. Bolls were
setting on 64% of the acreage, 11 points behind last year and 10 points behind
the average. Harvest was beginning in the Rio Grande Valley.

Grain sorghum planting was almost complete entering July, with limited
planting continuing in the southern Plains and Rocky Mountains. Additional
acreage was being seeded on the Texas plains to replace failed cotton acreage.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-4 NASS, USDA


Tobacco by Class and Type:

by State and United States, 1991 and Forecasted August 1

Area Harvested, Yield, and production,

Class and Type

1991

Class 1, Flue-cured
Type 11, Old and
Middle Belts

VA

Us
Type 12, Eastern NC
Belt

NC
Type 13, NC Border &
SC Belt

NC
SC
US
Type 14, Ga-fl Belt
L

GA

is
Total 11-14
Class 2, Fire-cured
Type ai, VA Belt

"Biee 22, Eastern
istrict

ws
Type 23, Western
District
KY
TN
US
Total 21-23
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-cured
Type 31, Burley

Type 32, Southern MD
Belt

MD
PA

US
Total 31-32

: 104,000

39;000

: 1433000

: 129,000

33,000
51,000
84,000

6,600
403000
46; 600

: 402;600

2,500

8,600
3,800
12,400

: 324; 400

102,000
38,000
140,000

131,000

34,000
52,000
86,000

7,600
43;000
50,600

407,600

1,800

~~ Pounds ---
2,275 2,100
2,260 2,100
2,271 2,100
2,345 2,250
2,350 2,150
2,180 2,050
2; 247 = 2,090
2,320 2,675
2,015 2,200
2,058 2,271
2,265 2,167
1,425 1,400
2,080 2,150
2,100 2,100
2,093 2,117
2,400 2,200
23200 2,200
2,372 2,211
23053 23061
2,150 2,200
2,150 2,200
2,275 1,550
2,000 1,900
2,190 2,050
1,950 1,900
2,100 2,000
1,800 1,800
2110 23118
1,500 1,450
1,850 1,850
1,607 1,552
2,090 2,096

Crop Production
August 1992

A-26

» 1992
Production
1991 1992
~ 1,000 Pounds --
236,600 214,200
88,140 79,800
324,740 294,000
302,505 294,750
77,550 73,100
111,180 106,600
188,730 179,700
15,312 20,330
80,600 94,600
95,912 114,930
911,887 883,380
3,563 2,520
6,760 7,740
13,860 14,700
20,620 22,440
7,560 7,480
1,144 1,210
8,704 8,690
32,887 33,650
18,920 19,800
457,950 484,000
6,825 2,325
18,000 17,480
22,776 22,140
105,300 112,100
24,990 24,600
3,420 3,600
658,181 686,045
12,900 14,500
7,030 6,916
19,930 21,416
678,111 707,461
--continued

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Production: Index Numbers
United States, 1983-92 (1977=100)

Production

Food : Sugar : Cotton : Tobacco : Oi]
Grains : Crops : H

1983 87 67 100 116 93 54 75 91
1984 > 110 U5 107 129 95 90 90 106
1985 : 116 133 106 121 97 93 79 117
1986 : 107 123 107 106 106 68 61 107
1987 > 106 106 101 107 111 103 62 108
1988 : 91 73 88 98 105 107 72 89
1989 : 106 108 100 107 105 85 71 106
1990 2 13 112 101 136 108 108 85 107
1991 > lll 107 108 104 113 122 87 114
1992 > 118 125 100 121 119 115 87 118

1/ Includes some miscellaneous crop production not included in separate groups
of crops shown.

This report was approved on August 12, 1992, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural
Statistics Board.

| oe oe

Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Daniel A. Sumner Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1992 , A-2 NASS, USDA


and extreme dryness has caused more natural thinning than expected.
Washington producers currently expect fruit size to be larger than normal.

Pears: Total U.S. production is placed at 941,450 tons, unchanged from last
month's forecast and 4 percent more than the 1991 production.

Bartlett production in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at
550,000 tons, unchanged from last month but up 4 percent from last year. In
California, picking continued actively with close to two-thirds of the crop
harvested. Fruit quality and size are reported as good. Oregon's harvest
started July 22 in the Medford district and was not far behind in the Hood
River Valley. Fruit size and quality are good from both areas. Harvest
started during the last days of July in the central areas of Washington.
Fruit size varies but quality seems good despite frost markings that were
reported in some areas. Leaf miner was reported above threshold levels in
some orchards in Chelan and Okanogan counties.

Production of pears other than Bartlett, in the Pacific Coast States, is
forecast at 355,000 tons, unchanged from the July forecast but 3 percent more
than 1991. Washington growers continue to expect a good crop. Lack of bee
activity has hurt Anjou pears. Harvest normally starts two weeks after
Bartletts.

Grapes: The production forecast for all grapes in the U.S. is 6.13 million
tons, 10 percent more than last year and 8 percent greater than 1990.
The production increase is due primarily to a larger California raisin crop.
The California all grape forecast is 5.60 million tons, 12 percent larger than
last year's crop and an 8 percent increase over 1990. The raisin type
forecast for California is 2.65 million tons, 6 percent more than the
July 1 forecast and 22 percent larger than the 1991 crop. The forecast is
based on the grape objective measurement survey which revealed high bunch
counts and large berry size. There are 12,500 acres of Thompson Seedless
grapes of bearing age in the Raisin Industry Diversion Program (RID) for 1992.
This acreage has been pruned so it will not produce any grapes.

The forecast for California wine type grapes remains unchanged from July at
2.30 million tons. This forecasted production is 5 percent larger than both
the 1991 and 1990 crops. Mildew remains a problem as growers prepare for
harvest.

California's table type grape production is expected to be 650,000 tons, up
7 percent from July 1 and up 5 percent from last year. Table grape harvest is
active with good quality reported.

The Michigan grape crop is forecast at 40,000 tons, down 13 percent from last
season. The crop is quite variable with some growers having no production due
to a late May freeze and others having a very good to excellent crop. The New
York all grape forecast is 150,000 tons, a 22 percent decrease from the
previous year. Development is two weeks behind normal because of cool, wet
conditions. Berry size and sugar levels are also well behind normal. The
Pennsylvania grape crop is forecast at 66,000 tons, 15 percent below Tast
season. The crop is generally in good condition but development is behind

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-16 NASS, USDA


Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Crop and State fone e teen eee.

1990
Grapes (Table Type)
CA 645,000 620,000 650,000
Grapes (Wine Type)
CA 2,195,000 2,195,000 2,300,000
Grapes (Raisin Type) 2/
CA 2,345,000 2,165,000 2,650,000
All Grapes
AZ : 26,000 25,000 20,000
AR : 5,100 11,000 5,000
CA : 5,185,000 4,980,000 5,600,000
GA : 2,900 3,200 3,400
MI : 46,000 46,000 40,000
MO : 1,300 3,100 1,500
NY : 144,000 192,000 150,000
NC : 1,500 2,200 2,100
OH : 7,700 9,100 9,000
OR : 7,000 9,600 12,500
PA : 53,000 78,000 66,000
Sc : 400 700 500
WA : 180,000 196,000 216,000
US :  §,659,900 5,555,900 6,126,000

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons): 1990-120;
1991-630.
2/ Fresh basis.

Ginger Root: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, Hawaii,
1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-34 NASS, USDA


Growers have planted 59.1 million acres of soybeans, up 70,000 acres from the
June acreage forecast. Area harvested and to be harvested, at 58.1 million
acres, is up fractionally from last year and from June's forecast of

58.0 million acres. Texas had the largest shifts in acreage; both planted and
harvested acreage increased by 170,000 acres from June.

Yields in Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and most of the
eastern coast are down from last year. In Minnesota and North Dakota, the crop
is late because of cool temperatures.

Yields in the southern corn belt are up from 1991. Rains have caused some
yellowing of plants in that region.

Cotton: All cotton production is forecast at 16.5 million bales, down

6 percent from last year's production but 7 percent above the
1990 crop. Upland is expected to account for 16.0 million bales. Pima
production; if realized, will total 508,000 bales, 28 percent above last
year's production and the second highest production of record.

Planted area, at 13.4 million acres, is down 5 percent from last year.
Growers expect to harvest 11.4 million acres, down 12 percent from 1991.
Yield is expected to average 696 pounds per acre, up 44 pounds from last year.

Upland cotton production in Texas and Oklahoma is forecast at 3.58 million
bales, 28 percent below 1991. Cotton objective yield survey data show fruit
counts in Texas at the fourth lowest level since 1982 and squares at their
third lowest since that year. Cotton acreage abandonment amounted to

34 percent of the acres planted, this year. That abandonment is much larger
than normal and was caused by May rainfall and cool weather delaying emergence
and resulting in seedling disease. Harvest was active in South Texas and
defoliation continued in the Upper Coast. On August 2, 19 percent of Texas'
acreage was in very poor or poor condition, 64 percent was in fair condition,
and 16 percent in good condition. Bol] set in Texas, at 39 percent, was about
20 percent behind the 5-year average, and in Oklahoma 18 percent of the
acreage was setting bolls, 30 percent less than the usual rate.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
expect to produce 6.69 million bales, up 5 percent from last year. Yields in
the region are expected to average 774 pounds per harvested acre, unchanged
from 1991. Arkansas expects a record high yield of 800 pounds per harvested
acre. Cotton objective yield data indicated Arkansas had the highest fruit
count since 1982. Louisiana and Mississippi recorded their second and

third highest fruit counts, respectively, since 1982. However, the majority
of these counts consisted of small bolls and squares. Large boll counts in
Arkansas and Mississippi were the fourth lowest since 1982. Rainfall in the
Delta was sufficient and beneficial to crop development thus far. Producers
were able to plant all of the intended acreage. The majority of the region's
cotton was rated in fair condition on August 2.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 3.60 million bales, up 3 percent from 1991. Yield is
expected to average 1,274 pounds per harvested acre, 72 pounds above the
199] average yield. California's indicated yield of 1,303 pounds would be a

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-9 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed: Condition by State
and United States, 1991-92 and Average 1/

State : Average : 1991 : 1992 State : Average : 1991 : 1992
: 1981-90 : : : 1981-90 : :
Percent Percent

AL : 73 89 99 NV : 74 72 43
AZ H 71 77 92 NH : 88 66 78
AR : 70 81 90 NJ : 77 75 92
CA : 76 65 61 NM : 73 82 93
co : 76 83 89 NY : 78 45 87
CT : 81 45 91 NC : 71 79 82
DE : 69 85 89 ND : 68 85 77
FL : 82 92 86 OH : 78 60 87
GA : 65 92 82 OK : 75 71 103
1D : 78 80 58 OR : 84 88 53
IL : 74 64 87 PA : 76 29 87
IN : 75 41 94 RI : 91 45 85
IA : 73 64 94 Sc : 63 85 68
KS 3 79 59 88 SD : 72 91 93
KY : 77 74 97 IN : 76 84 92
LA : 80 91 95 TX H 67 76 87
ME : 84 50 73 UT : 76 80 76
MD : 72 40 93 VT : 81 63 77
MA : 85 50 89 VA : 76 69 81
MI : 74 72 80 WA : 81 89 59
MN : 73 93 95 Ww : 78 55 89
MS : 77 92 92 WI : 73 76 74
MO : 72 71 93 WY : 79 101 88
MT : 73 94 85 :

NE : 76 75 99 74 76 86

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Prunes and Plums: Production by State and Total,
1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Total Production

State ae ac a
: 1990 1/ 1991 1/ 1992
Tons

1D 6,800 3,000 4,600
MI 6,000 9,000 6,000
OR 21,000 4,000 20,000
WA 14,000 9,100 11,000
Total 47,800 25,100 41,600
1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold(tons):

1990 - 4,600; 1991 - 300.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1992 A-29 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested : Production
State : :
1991 : 1992 1991: 1992

: - 1,000 Acres - --- 1,000 Bushels --
AL 1/ 110 95 2,750 4,275
AZ 1/ 68 88 6,605 7,700
AR 1/ 930 900 20,460 41,400
CA 1/ 442 605 36,160 49,225
co 2,336 2,345 74,000 68,000
DE 1/ 67 70 3,551 3,640
FL 1/ 25 25 575 1,000
GAl/ : 425 350 14,025 15,400
ID : 1,160 1,470 81,660 98,900
IL : 1,400 1,100 44,800 62,700
IN : 720 450 28,800 21,600
IA]/ : 50 40 1,700 1,480
KS : 11,000 10,900 363,000 359,700
KY : 400 420 10,800 22,680
lAl/ : 190 160 3,800 5,760
MD 1/  : 195 220 9,750 11,880
MI : 560 630 24,080 31,500
MN 2 2,155 2,805 67,110 123,250
MS 1/ : 250 260 4,500 10,920
MO : 1,500 1,350 48,000 64,800
MT : 4,379 4,779 159,507 131,820
NE : 2,100 1,950 67,200 60,450
Wid1/ os: 8 10 660 800
Nd 1/ 26 30 1,196 1,440
NM 1/ 320 340 8,000 10,200
NY 1/ : 110 115 5,390 6,095
NC : 480 555 19,200 27,750
ND : 9,790 11,410 303,670 390,110
OH > 1,080 1,140 52,920 60,420
OK : 5,000 6,000 140,000 174,000
OR : 846 950 43,900 46,350
PAl/ : 175 185 7,700 8,695
sc l/s: 275 270 8,525 12,420
SS) : 3,117 3,778 96,175 102,324
IN]/ : 320 310 7,680 14,570
TX > 2,800 3,800 84,000 129,200
UT 1/ : 153 153 5,807 6,694
VA 1/ 250 260 12,250 13,260
WA 2,150 2,430 98, 600 124,060
WV 1/ 10 11 450 506
WI o1/ 127 90 6,118 3,060
WY 1/ 194 220 5,630 5,550
US : 57,693 63,069 1,980,704 2,335,584

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-13 NASS, USDA


normal and wet conditions have caused some mildew problems. The Washington
forecast for all grapes is 216,000 tons, 10 percent above the 1991 production.
Concord grape development is ahead of normal and harvest is expected to start
as early as Labor Day.

Ginger Root: Hawaiian ginger root production for 1992 is expected to total
7.50 million pounds, down 37 percent from the 1991 record high

crop of 12.0 million pounds. Harvested acreage declined 20 percent to

200 acres and the average yield declined 10,500 pounds to 37,500 pounds per

acre. Numerous factors were involved in this season's lower yields including

a bacterial blight, inadequate soil fumigation, and unfavorable weather

conditions.

Florida Citrus: Citrus groves in the State were in good condition during

July. Rainfall was generally less than normal; however,
caretakers have been irrigating to help prevent stress and wilt. Temperatures
during the month were hot. There were several days when the temperatures in
the full sun were well above 100 degrees. There was an abundance of new
growth on trees of all ages. Harvest of Valencia oranges ended by mid-month.
Virtually all of the late oranges delivered during July were used for fresh
squeezed products. Grapefruit harvest was over by the first of July with only
a few thousand boxes of late bloom fruit used for both fresh packing and fresh
squeezed juices. Caretakers were active cutting cover crops, spraying, and
fertilizing groves of all ages. There was a lot of tree planting in both old
and young groves. Growers were pushing and removing dead and sick trees,

California Fruits and Nuts: Growers were active in July harvesting

California's summer fruit crops. Remnants of
several hurricanes caused scattered precipitation and cloudiness throughout
the State. The first half of the month was cooler than normal and the last
half warmer than normal. By the end of July, the harvest of almonds was
increasing and picking of Gravenstein and Royal Gala apples had begun. Table
grapes were harvested throughout the month with mildew being a problem. The
Freestone peach harvest was 80 percent complete and the nectarine harvest was
75 percent complete. As the month came to a close, over 50 percent of the
Bartlett pears and almost 75 percent of the plums had been harvested. Asian
pear picking began in July, and the prunes and pomegranates started to color.
The summer grapefruit harvest made progress, while the picking of Valencia
oranges proceeded at a relatively slow pace.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-17 NASS, USDA


deviations for the 1972-1991 20-year period is computed then the square root
of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error."

Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the
current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that
factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those
influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the August 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 7.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of
3 that the current production forecast of 8.76 billion bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 7.9 percent or approximately
692 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
that the difference will not exceed 13.6 percent or approximately

1,192 million bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of
the differences between the August 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using
corn again as an example, changes between the August 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 273 million bushels, ranging
from 16 million to 1,063 million bushels. The August_1 forecast has been
below the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that
the August 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate
final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been
below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of August 1 Crop Production Forecasts
10-year Record of
a lelttaaieatataiaia istered : Differences Between Forecast
:90% Confidenc and Final Estimate
Crop and : : Level =: :------~-------------~-----------
Unit : : Quantity No. of Years
:Percent: $0 Better e erence teen nnn rence n=
: Percent: Quant:: H :Below: Above
: : : Avg:Smal]l:Large:Final: Final

Feed Grains 1/ Mt:

6.6 11.5 6 4

Corn For Grain Bu: 7.9 13.6 5 5
Sorghum For Grain Bu: 6.3 10.8 7 3
Oats Bu: 6.0 10.4 3 7
Barle: Bu: 5.4 9.6 5 5
All Wheat Bu: 1.8 3.1 3 7

Winter Bu: 1.1 1.8 4 6

Durum Bu: 7.7 13.3 5 5

Other Spring Bu: 6.4 11.0 5 5
Rice Cwt: 4.1 7.1 6 4
Soybeans For :

Beans Bu: 5.9 10.2 5 5
Cotton Bales 2/: 7.3 12.6 6 4
Dry Edible :

Beans Cwt: 7.0 12.0 3 7

1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats, and barley.
2/ Quantity is in thousand of bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 B-19 NASS, USDA


Wheat: Production by Class, United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992 1/

Winter Spring
Year Hard Soft Hard 7 :
Red Red White Red : Durum

1,000 Bushels

1990 : 1,198,782 547,126 284,966 554,678 122,430 28,446 2,736,428

1991 + 901,346 325,201 145,635 431,223 103,957 73,342 1,980,704

1992 : 955,383 428,727 216,821 606,316 80,859 47,478 2,335,584

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing states. Unless unusual situations dictate, the
previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season. Washington class estimates have been changed to 23 percent Hard
Red Spring and 77 percent White Spring.

Peanuts for Nuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted August 1, 1992

Area Harvested : Yield Production 1/

~- 1,000 Acres -- -- Pounds --- 9 --------- 1,000 Pounds ----------
AL 3 277.0 239.0 2,305 2,400 386,560 638,485 573,600
FL : 118.0 107.0 2,370 3,000 233,120 279,660 321,000
GA: 895.0 695.0 2,490 2,700 1,347,500 2,228,550 1,876,500
NM : 22.7 22.0 2,250 2,300 50,000 51,075 50,600
NC 3 162.0 162.0 2,850 2,800 475,600 461,700 453,600
OK : 106.0 98.0 2,300 2,350 235,320 243,800 230,300
Sc : 14.0 14.0 2,400 2,400 30,105 33,600 33,600
TX : 325.0 320.0 2,100 2,300 534,650 682,500 736,000
VA : 96.0 93.0 3,200 3,000 309,915 307,200 279,000

us : 2,015.7 1,750.0 2,444 2,602 3,602,770 4,926,570 4,554,200

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1992 A-16 NASS, USDA