Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

--- Pounds - 1,000 Bales 2/

Upland :

AL : 516.0 420.0 734 503 492.0 789.0 440.0
AZ : 314.0 329.0 1,189 1,167 793.0 778.0 800.0
AR : 990.0 930.0 793 692 1,468.0 1,636.0 1,340.0
CA : 995.0 875.0 1,153 1,207 2,312.0 2,390.0 2,200.0
FL : 98.2 100.0 637 720 107.2 130.4 150.0
GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 747 736 1,941.0 2,079.0 2,200.0
KS 2 4.0 13.5 492 480 1.0 4.1 13.5
LA : 885.0 585.0 697 673 1,375.0 1,286.0 820.0
MS : 1,100.0 960.0 819 750 1,841.0 1,876.0 1,500.0
MO : 385.0 365.0 737 618 513.0 591.0 470.0
NM 2 55.0 66.0 733 698 71.0 84.0 96.0
Nc : 710.0 688.0 677 590 798.0 1,002.0 845.0
OK : 210.0 210.0 306 434 123.0 134.0 190.0
sc 2 282.0 285.0 774 758 376.0 455.0 450.0
TN 2 530.0 500.0 611 566 724.0 675.0 590.0
TX : 4,100.0 5,300.0 509 453 4,460.0 4,345.0 5,000.0
VA 2 102.0 399.0 748 601 137.0 159.0 124.0
US : 12,612.2 13,160.5 701 628 17,532.2 18,413.5 17,228.5
Amer-Pima :

AZ : 41.9 20.0 852 792 72.2 74.4 33.0
CA 7 164.0 184.0 1,098 1,174 224.5 375.0 450.0
NM : 14.0 13.0 651 665 18.9 19.0 18.0
TX z 36.0 32.0 801 795 52.0 60.1 53.0
US : 255.9 249.0 991 1,068 367.6 528.5 554.0
All :

AL : 516.0 420.0 734 503 492.0 789.0 440.0
AZ : 355.9 349.0 1,150 1,146 865.2 852.4 833.0
AR : 990.0 930.0 793 692 1,468.0 1,636.0 1,340.0
CA : 1,159.0 1,059.0 1,145 1,201 2,536.5 2,765.0 2,650.0
‘FL : 98.2 100.0 637 720 107.2 130.4 150.0
GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 747 736 1,941.0 2,079.0 2,200.0
KS : 4.0 13.5 A492 480 1.0 4.1 13.5
LA : 885.0 585.0 697 673 1,375.0 1,286.0 820.0
MS : 1,100.0 960.0 819 750 1,841.0 1,876.0 1,500.0
MO 3 385.0 365.0 737 618 513.0 591.0 470.0
NM t 69.0 79.0 717 693 89.9 103.0 114.0
Nc 3 710.0 688.0 677 590 798.0 1,002.0 845.0
OK 2 210.0 210.0 306 434 123.0 134.0 190.0
sc : 282.0 285.9 TI4 758 376.0 455.0 450.0
TN : 530.0 500.0 611 566 724.0 675.0 530.0
TX : 4,136.0 5,332.0 511 455 4,512.0 4,405.1 5,053.0
VA 3 102.0 99.0 748 601 137.0 159.0 124.0
US 12,868.1 13,409.5 707 637 17,899.8 18,942.0 17,782.5

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/  480-lb net weight bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-20 NASS, USDA


growth throughout the Corn Belt. Progress of corn and soybeans took a dramatic
jump in the middle of July that corresponded to the jump in planting progress
earlier in the spring. By the end of the month, both corn silking and soybean
setting pods were ahead of last year and the average. Lack of moisture began to
stress the crops as the month progressed, but temperatures turned cooler at
month’s end to moderate the stress slightly. Crop conditions remained good in
areas that received moisture, but conditions declined in fields only a few miles
away that missed the scattered showers,

After a slow start in June, winter wheat harvest progressed rapidly in July due
to generally warm, dry weather in the major winter wheat-producing States.
Harvest in the southern Plains and Southeast finished by mid-month, slightly
ahead of average. In the northern Plains and Northwest, harvest progressed
behind the normal pace until the end of the month, when dry, sunny weather
allowed farmers into ripe fields. Timely showers along the Northern Tier States
provided enough moisture for spring small grain development to catch up after
late planting. Spring wheat and barley completed heading ahead of last year and
the average. Late-month cool, wet weather in North Dakota promoted the
development of head and foliar diseases. Oats were harvested at the average
national pace. Spring wheat and barley harvest was just underway by month’s
end.

Torrential rains along the path of Hurricane Danny’s remnants may have caused
damage to some fields in the Southeast, but most crops benefitted from the
much-needed moisture. Cotton fields developed ahead of normai in the western
cotton-producing States, but Southeastern fields progressed behind normal.
Progress was well ahead of normal in California and Arizona as seasonable
temperatures provided good growing conditions. Toward the end of the month, the
cotton acreage in Missouri and Texas showed signs of moisture stress. Cotton,
peanut, and rice fields benefited from showers along the Gulf and southern
Atlantic Coasts at the end of the month. Peanut and rice fields developed
behind the normal pace.

The Nation’s sorghum crop progressed near normal for most of the month. Areas
in the central Plains and Corn Belt showed signs of moisture stress toward the
end of the month. Persistant dryness stressed both crops and pastures
throughout the middle Atlantic Coast States and eastern Ohio Valley.

Corn: Acreage planted to corn is estimated at 80.2 million acres, unchanged

from the June estimate but up 1 percent from last year. Acreage for
harvest is estimated at 74.0 million acres, up 30,000 acres from June, and up 1
percent from 1996. Wisconsin increased harvested acreage by 50,000 due to good
weather conditions. Virginia decreased harvested acreage by 20,000 due to
adverse weather conditions. No other adjustments were made to harvested acreage
at this time.

The August 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level stalk count for
the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Lowa, Minnesota, Nebraska,
Ohio, and Wisconsin). Corn was planted ahead of last year but cool temperatures
early in the season slowed development. Warm temperatures in late July
increased the growing degree days and pushed silking ahead of the average.
Because of these growing conditions, current and potential ear development will
be better known as growth occurs.

Yield for the 34 States without an Objective Yield Survey is forecasted at

111.3 bushels per acre down from 117.0 in 1996. These States account for

28 percent of 1997 production as compared to 30 percent in 1996. Eighteen States
are showing a decrease in yield, fifteen are showing an increase, and one is
showing no change from 1996. States with decreasing yields from 1996 make up

59 percent of the 34 State total and average a yield of 105 bushels. Hot and dry
weather conditions have reduced the yield on dryland corn.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-5 NASS, USDA



(CROP MOISTURE

NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _eesaenererineryreprs

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,

years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Agricultural Statistics Board

Crop Production
B-1 NASS, USDA

August 1997


8 percent below 1995. Growers in North Dakota lowered their estimate of
harvested area from 600,000 to 530,000 acres from June to August. As of August
1, the average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,666 pounds per acre, up 74 pounds
from last year and 44 pounds above two years ago.

In North Dakota, dry spring weather caused uneven germination and plant
development. Excessive rains during July drowned out some acreage and made the
crop susceptible to mold. Growers in Michigan experienced excellent planting
weather, got the crop in early, and have it in good shape. Healthy stands of
more long season variety beans in 1997 point to yields comparable to 1995.

Colorado and Idaho growers could experience record high yields in 1997. In
Colorado, crop development is lagging last year, but significantly ahead of the
5-year average. Recent moisture should improve crop development in areas not
affected by lowland flooding. In Idaho, the cool spring resulted in late
planted fields, and development is 1 to 2 weeks behind normal. By August 1,
seeding of the second crop acreage in California was completed.

In Nebraska the crop developed rapidly during July and by month’s end was rated
62 percent good to excellent. However, on August 1, growers in Minnesota rated
their crop 8 percent poor, 41 percent fair, 39 percent good, and 8 percent
excellent.

Rain is needed by growers in New York, although planting conditions were ideal.
Beans are currently in bloom with good stands, and spraying for leaf hopper is
underway. Fields in Wisconsin are in good shape with adequate moisture in the
major dry bean growing area of West Central Wisconsin. Hail and high winds
damaged some fields in Malheur and Union Counties, Oregon, however most areas in
Washington and Oregon are in good condition with adequate moisture. Some
replanting was necessary in Wyoming, but, by August 1, the crop was blooming and
setting pods comparable to the average pace. In Utah, yields improved
significantly this year from 1996's drought-stricken crop.

U.S. planted acres of pintos fell from 44.7 percent of the total in 1996 to
41.5 percent in 1997, and second place navies slipped from 22.8 percent to
22.1 percent. Planted area of black beans rose from 4.9 percent in 1996 to
7.2 percent surpassing the traditionally third ranked great northerns, which
dipped from 6.6 percent to 5.9 percent of the total.

All Hay: Production for 1997 is forecast at 154 million tons, up 3 percent from
1996 but down slightly from 1995. All hay yields are forecast at

2.53 tons per acre, up 3 percent from last year. Acreage for harvest of alfalfa

and alfalfa mixtures and other hay is unchanged from June at 60.8 million acres

which is down slightly from 1996.

Favorable growing conditions in most areas during the spring and early summer
months benefitted all hay crops. Production increases were common throughout
the Western, Southeastern, and Corn Belt States. Declines were common in the
Northern Plains, Appalachian, and Northeastern States. Texas is expected to be
the number one hay producing State, followed by California, South Dakota,
Minnesota, and Missouri.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Production is forecast at 77.8 million tons,

2 percent below last year and 8 percent below
1995. Yields are expected to average 3.30 tons per acre, up 0.03 tons from last
year. Harvested area, at 23.6 million acres, is down 3 percent from 1996. If
realized, this will be the lowest harvested acreage since 1953 when 23.3 million
acres were harvested.

Production is up in five of the top six States, but is expected to be below or
the same as last year in 24 of the 42 estimating States. Of the major producing
States, North Dakota showed the largest decline from 1996, down 46 percent,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-10 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Area Harvested Yield Production

1,000 Acres ~-- 1,000 Bushels ---

AL 1/ : 80 110 44.0 35.0 35.0 3,520 3,850
AZ 1/ 3 178 98 90.4 92.3 92.3 16,090 9,042
AR 1/ : 1,240 790 54.0 45.0 45.0 66,960 35,550
CA 1/ 3 688 510 75.2 80.1 80.1 51,750 40,850
co : 2,268 2,912 33.3 34.0 34.0 75,500 99,010
DE 1/ E 78 77 53.0 55.0 55.0 4,134 4,235
FL 1/ 3 10 15 38.0 39.0 39.0 380 585
GA 1/ : 350 360 48.0 44.0 44.0 16,800 15,840
ID : 1,560 1,430 76.4 76.0 77.3 119,200 110,480
IL : 1,100 1,150 38.0 60.0 60.0 41,800 69,000
IN : 720 640 38.0 54.0 57.0 27,360 36,480
IA 1/ : 45 25 35.0 38.0 38.0 1,575 950
KS : 8,800 10,700 29.0 42.0 46.0 255,200 492,200
KY : 530 500 53.0 52.0 55.0 28,090 27,500
LA 1/ : 130 145 43.0 38.0 38.0 5,590 5,510
MD 1/ : 227 215 52.0 60.0 60.0 11,804 12,900
MI : 630 540 38.0 54.0 61.0 23,940 32,940
MN : 2,442 2,405 41.9 37.9 35.0 102,382 84,180
MS 1/ : 230 190 49.0 42.0 42.0 11,270 7,980
MO : 1,250 1,040 39.0 53.0 57.0 48,750 59,280
MT : 6,350 6,010 27.8 29.9 30.1 176,710 180,850
NE : 2,100 1,900 35.0 35.0 37.0 73,500 70,300
NV 1/ : 19 17 86.8 96.5 96.5 1,650 1,640
NI 1/ : 38 34 46.0 44.0 44.0 1,748 1,496
NM 1/ : 110 300 37.0 34.0 34.0 4,070 10,200
NY 1/ z 150 135 43.0 52.0 52.0 6,450 7,020
NC : 590 670 44.0 52.0 52.0 25,960 34,840
ND : 12,515 11,188 31.6 23.8 26.0 395,130 291,438
OH : 1,330 1,060 39.0 57.0 62.0 51,870 65,720
OK : 4,900 5,400 19.0 32.0 33.0 93,100 178,200
OR : 955 965 70.8 66.4 69.0 67,605 66,550
PA 1/ 190 175 48.0 52.0 52.0 9,120 9,100
sc 1/ 270 305 45.0 50.0 50.0 12,150 15,250
sD 3,854 3,574 36.1 30.9 31.6 139,270 113,098
TN 1/ 400 370 44.0 43.0 43.0 17,600 15,910
TX : 2,900 4,100 26.0 29.0 29.0 75,400 118,900
UT 1/ 188 189 41.3 45.8 45.8 7,760 8,650
VA 1/ 275 255 53.0 60.0 60.0 14,575 15,300
WA 2,745 2,595 66.5 60.4 62.4 182,670 162,000
wv 1/ 11 9 45.0 45.0 45.0 495 405
wii il/ 135 142 42.4 51.2 51.2 5,725 7,265
wy i/ 269 250 26.4 32.2 32.2 7,110 8,040
us 63,495 36.3 38.3 39.9 2,281,763 2,530,534

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-14 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on
September 12, 1997.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369
Rhonda Brandt- Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621

Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526
Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234
Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285
Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,

Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235

Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215
Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,

Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270

Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-20 NASS, USDA


For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the August 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 9.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the current production forecast of 9.28 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 9.1 percent or approximately 844 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 15.7 percent or approximately 1.46 billion bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the August 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the August 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 491 million bushels, ranging
from 57 million to 1,087 million bushels. The August 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 3 times and above 7 times. This does not imply that the
August 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of August 1 Crop Production Forecasts
10-year Record of
Differences Between Forecast
and Final Estimate

Crop and
Unit

: Quant :Below: Above
i inal

:Percent;

Corn For Grain 15.7 1,456 7
Sorghum For Grain 14.5 91 5
Oats 13.7 27 8
Barley 11.5 43 4
All Wheat 4.4 iil 7
Winter 1.9 35 7
Durum 16.7 15 7
Other Spring 14.5 85 6
Rice 8.2 is 3
Soybeans For
Beans 10.4 285 89 19 235 6 4
Cotton 1/ 14 2,650 1,084 34 3,911 4
Dry Edible

l/ Quantity is in thousands of bales,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-18 NASS, USDA


with @iscontinued care are generally showing signs of stress in the form of
yellowing foliage. New crop fruit is making good progress with good sizes on
all types of fruit. Harvest of all oranges and grapefruit for the 1996-97
season was completed by early July. Caretakers have been busy cutting cover
crops. Application of summer fertilizers and sprays kept growers busy between
rain showers. Growers are pushing and burning dead trees and resetting new
trees.

California Fruits and Nuts: Due to the warm and mild spring, almost all crops

are one to two weeks ahead of normal. Almond
harvest began in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Nectarines, peaches, and
plums were harvested throughout the month. Table grape harvest progressed from
the southern San Joaquin Valley northward. Raisin grape vineyards were receiving
their last irrigation and vineyard beds were prepared for sun drying. Wine
grape harvest began. Early apple varieties were harvested. Apples and walnuts
were treated for codling moth. Early season walnuts were showing a light crop,
but later season varieties were showing a heavy crop. The olive fruit set was
light, and the fruit was sizing normally.

California Citrus: Valencia orange harvest was over 50 percent complete by the

end of July. New season navel oranges were sizing normally,
with wide variability in fruit set. Some groves were treated for red scale and
mites. Lemon and red grapefruit harvest continued.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 B-16 NASS, USDA


All Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and
United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Area Harvested :

: 1,000 Acres 1,000 Tons

AL : 730 750 2.40 2.40 1,512 1,752 1,800
AZ t 179 215 7.53 7.27 1,392 1,347 1,563
AR > 1,150 1,175 2.01 2.21 2,011 2,310 2,593
CA > 1,450 1,490 5.52 5.57 8,341 8,008 8,298
co > 1,440 1,480 2.82 2.98 3,978 4,054 4,415
cT z 80 65 2.03 1.65 142 162 107
DE : a5 15 4.27 3.27 31 64 49
FL 3 240 230 2.60 3.00 575 624 690
GA : 600 600 2.80 3.50 1,500 1,680 2,100
ID : 1,280 1,320 3.72 3.80 5,080 4,760 5,016
IL : 1,000 1,020 3.04 3.06 3,598 3,040 3,126
IN : 725, 750 2.79 3.10 2,400 2,020 2,323
IA > 1,700 1,700 3.13 3.08 5,665 5,320 5,240
KS > 2,500 2,600 2.80 2.45 6,555 7,010 6,380
KY > 2,400 2,400 2.38 2.29 5,790 5,700 5,490
LA : 310 330 2.70 2.70 744 837 891
ME 3 185 158 1.82 1.81 419 336 286
MD 3 220 220 3.17 2.42 $52 698 532
MA : 95 105 2.00 1.80 192 190 189
MI : 1,300 1,250 3.22 2.99 5,025 4,190 3,740
MN 2 2,225 2,450 2.70 2.95 6,943 5,998 7,230
MS 2 800 750 2.50 2.40 1,668 2,000 1,800
MO > 3,680 3,480 1.88 2.05 6,818 6,920 7,146
MT > 2,600 2,600 1.89 2.21 5,360 4,920 5,735
NE 2 3,250 3,150 2.29 2.08 7,200 7,445 6,538
NV z 490 430 3.07 3.07 1,505 1,505 1,505
NH : 67 55 1.75 1.62 137 117 89
No : 120 120 2.24 2.00 285 269 240
NM : 355 375 4.44 4.47 1,515 1,577 1,675
NY > 1,510 1,500 2.30 2.33 3,448 3,468 3,488
Nc 3 540 530 2.12 2.22 1,286 1,145 1,178
ND > 2,900 2,400 1.66 1.16 5,095 4,825 2,790
OH : 1,200 1,250 2.83 3.04 4,035 3,400 3,795
OK 7 2,690 2,620 1.88 1.90 4,174 5,045 4,972
OR : 1,070 1,080 3.03 3.23 3,300 3,244 3,492
PA : 1,880 1,950 2.44 1.92 4,409 4,585 3,745
RI 3 8 9 2.63 2.00 14 21 18
sc : 280 300 2.00 2.80 720 560 840
sD : 4,300 4,100 1.91 1.85 9,050 8,200 7,580
TN : 1,790 1,690 2.13 2.23 3,920 3,811 3,770
TX : 4,350 4,810 1.80 2.65 8,136 7,815 12,726
UT : 705 700 3.57 3.76 2,644 2,516 2,630
vT 3 250 235 2.03 1.65 559 507 388
VA : 1,280 1,250 2.34 1.90 2,571 2,998 2,380
WA 3 800 780 3.93 4.35 3,278 3,140 3,396
wv : 570 570 1.87 1.95 1,056 1,066 1,110
Wi > 2,500 2,400 2.42 2.60 6,820 6,050 6,240

1.81 1,99 2,718 2,208 2,562

wy : 1,220 1,290

61,029 60,807 2.45 2.53 154,166 149,457 153,886

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-24 NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain: The first production forecast for the 1997 crop year is

629 million bushels, down 22 percent from 1996, but
37 percent above 1995. Reductions in both acreage and yields from the previous
year are the reasons for the decline in production. Area for grain is forecast
at 9.51 million acres, down 20 percent from last year. Based on August 1
conditions, yields are forecast at 66.2 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from
1996. Yield decreases are expected in 12 of the top 18 producing States with
Kentucky, Colorado, and Missouri showing the largest declines.

The 1997 sorghum crop was rated in mostly good to fair condition as of the week
ending August 3. The percent of sorghum headed was ahead of the five-year
average in most States, but sorghum coloring was three points behind normal.
Nearly half of the crop in Kansas was headed by the 3rd of August, the same as a
year ago but 17 points ahead of normal. Crop development in Texas was running
behind average with 22 percent of the sorghum combined, compared with 39 percent
normally harvested at this time. Late plantings and a dry early season gave the
Colorado sorghum crop a late start and expected yields at 35 bushels per acre
are down 16 bushels from a year ago.

Oats: Oat production for 1997 is forecast at 187 million bushels, up 2 percent
from the July “Crop Production” report and up 21 percent from 1996. If

realized, this would be the third lowest oat production since records were first

kept in 1866. The forecasted yield, at 58.1 bushels per acre, is up 1.4 bushels

from July and up 0.3 bushels from the previous year. Area for harvest, at

3.22 million acres, is unchanged from July but up 20 percent from the

2.69 million acres harvested in 1996. This is the third lowest oat acreage

harvested on record.

Timely rainfall in the northern Plains during early July benefitted the oat
crop. Forecasted yields in several oat-producing States increased from last
month as a result of adequate soil moisture and ideal harvest conditions. In
North Dakota, early July precipitation improved crop condition. The oat crop
developed rapidly during the end of the month.

Barley: Total barley production is forecast at 380 million bushels, up

2 percent from July, but down 4 percent from 1996. Yields are expected
to average 59.4 bushels per acre, up 1.3 bushels from July and 0.9 bushels from
1996. Increases in forecasted yields from July for Idaho, Montana, North
Dakota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington more than offset yield decreases
in Colorado, Kansas, Maryland, and Minnesota.

Area harvested and to be harvested, at 6.40 million acres, is 6 percent below
the 6.79 million acres a year earlier. Harvest was just underway in Idaho,
Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Washington and virtually
completed in California, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

The 1997 barley crop was rated in mostly good to fair condition as of the week
ending August 3. Conditions were rated as good to excellent in Idaho and
Washington with expected yield increases of one and eight bushels per acre,
respectively, over 1996. Early July precipitation in North Dakota helped boost
expected yields two bushels from the previous forecast, but wet, cool conditions
have promoted the development of head diseases, such as scab. Minnesota
producers also reported problems with scab, causing reductions in forecasted
yields. A new barley variety has helped Colorado producers project a seven
bushel increase over last year's yield.

The Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina Soft Red Winter
harvests are complete. Indiana and Ohio growers are nearly done.
The Michigan harvest is winding down; record yields are expected. Kentucky
growers finished harvesting mid-July and realized better than expected yields.
Objective Yield Survey head counts are at near-record high levels in the three
States(Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio).

Winter Whea

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-6 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997
(Metric Units)

Crop 0 penne nee ee ----------------------------------------------
1997 1996 1997
2 Hectares

corn 32,167,590 32,467,060 29,601,860 29,966,890

Sorghum : 5,337,050 4,155,360 4,816,220 3,849,410

Oats 3 1,886,260 2,130,290 1,087,400 1,303,910

Barley 2 2,903,250 2,739,350 2,746,630 2,588,800

All Wheat : 30,610,350 28,638,700 25,434,770 25,695,790
Winter : 21,037,000 19,563,520 16,069,840 16,828,220
Durum : 1,464,980 1,323,340 1,435,030 1,298,250
Other Spring 3 8,108,370 7,751,840 7,929,900 7,569,320

Rice : 1,140,820 1,240,370 1,132,730 1,229,040

Soybeans : 25,983,120 28,672,290 25,660,990 28,253,840

Peanuts 3 567,170 573,850 558,470 565,960

All Cotton 3 5,922,030 5,627,210 5,207,590 5,426,690
Upland 3 5,817,620 5,526,040 5,104,030 5,325,920
Amer-Pima 2 104,410 101,170 103,560 100,770

Cottonseed :

All Hay 3 24,697,830 24,607,980
Alfalfa : 9,830,320 9,532,880
All Other 3 14,867,500 15,075,110

Dry Edible Beans 3 733,700 774,410 695,140 708,250

Tobacco : 296,510 321,700

Sugarbeets 2 553,780 592,790 535,530 582,150

Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed : 359,730 362,200

Hops : 17,870 17,790

Coffee (HI) 2 2,310

Ginger Root (HI) 80 110

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop,

ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.

Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97

(Metric Units)

crop Summary:

Area Harvested

Area Planted

Crop pee eno nn enn e nee - 5 == ------ 25 ------- +--+ ----- + ----
1996 3 1997 1/ : 1996 1997 1/
Hectares
Rye 593,680 583,970 140,430 145,280
Sunflower 1,034,390 1,181,690 1,011,320 1,135,960
Flaxseed 38,850 61,510 37,230 59,080
Potatoes
Winter 5,870 6,310 5,870 6,230
Spring 37,800 35,490 36,420 34,840
Summer H 31,530 27,520 30,230 26,350
Fall 513,510 485,060 504,080 478,140
Total 588,700 554,380 576,600 545,560
Sweet Potatoes 36,060 35,530 34,320 34,280

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production
August 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA



Pears: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1995-1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

+ Total Production
Crop and State —:-------------- aaah aia eaten aeilaiatatatatatatal
1995 1996 3 1997
Tons
Bartlett
CA 3 247,000 287,000 300,000
OR : 70,000 45,000 75,000
WA : 180,000 105,000 180,000
Total : 497,000 437,000 555,000
Excluding Bartlett
CA 3 20,000 30,000 30,000
OR 3 160,000 130,000 180,000
WA : 240,000 195,000 230,000
Total : 420,000 355,000 440,000
All :
CA 3 267,000 317,000 330,000
co 3 2,900 1,200 4,000
cr 3 950 1,050 1,050
MI 3 5,500 6,000 3,500
NY : 14,500 15,000 11,500
OR 3 230,000 175,000 255,000
PA 3 6,300 4,000 3,800
UT 3 1,100 1,500 900
WA 3 420,000 300,000 410,000
US 948,250 820,750 1,019,750

Coffee: Utilized Production, Hawaii, 1994-96

1/ Parchment basis.
2/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-35 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted by Commercial Class, State,
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

: Class and State 1996 : 1997

Large Lima - CA : 21.0 :
: : Kidney 3
Baby Lima - CA : 24.0 31.0 : 10.0 10.0
3 : 8.7 12.2
Navy t 3 0.9 1.4
co : 0.2 H 12.0 14.0
ID 3 7.3 4.3 8.0 10.0
MI : 210.0 155.0 : 10.0 18.0
MN : 46.0 72.0 16.5 20.0
NE 3 5.0 5.0 1.1
NM : 5.0 5.0 : 66.1 86.7
ND : 135.0 175.0 z
OR : 1.8 1.7 :
WA : 1.1 z
WY : 4.0 3.0 5.0 5.0
Total fy 414.1 422.3 0.5 0.5
: : 11.0 8.0
Great Northern 32.0 31.0
co H 1.3 0.3 : 3.5 4.0
ID z 7.8 6.8 3 3.0 3.0
KS : 2.5 1.5 : 8.3 8.6
MN : 1.0 2.0 63.3 60.1
NE 3 100.0 97.0 3
WA : 2.2 0.4 :
wy 5.0 5.0 : 8.0 5.0
Total t 119.8 113.0 : 7.5 16.3
3 : 5.0 9.0
Small White : 0.3
ID 3.1 3.3 : 7.0 7.0
OR : 0.5 1.4 : 3.2 3.7
WA 2.0 3.5 30.9 41.0
Total : 5.6 8.2
Pinto 3 12.7 23.5
co 134.7 124.2 3.0 8.0
ID 45.9 46.0 5.0 12.0
KS 3 22.5 24.0 2 20.7 43.5
MI 9.0 12.0 2
MN z 30.0 44.0 2
MT : 10.5 12.2 3.0 4.0
NE 88.0 67.0 3 1.4 2.6
NM 6.7 7.0 3 27.0 30.0
ND 413.0 411.0 2.0 3.0
OR 2 2.2 2.1 33.4 39.6
1.0 1.5
5.0 5.8
4.2 0.0
7.0 8.0
9.7 4.8

--continued

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-21 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,
State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Area Harvested Production
Class and Type =: -----+---------~-------+--------------------------------~---

~ -- 1,000 Pounds --

Class 1, Flue-cured
Type 11, Old Belts
Nc
VA
us
Type 12, Eastern NC
Belt
NC
Type 13, NC Border &
sc Belt

76,000 86,000 2,120 2,250 161,120 193,500
37,700 40,000 2,235 2,150 84,260 86,000
113,700 126,000 2,158 2,218 245,380 279,500

167,000 181,000 2,025 2,150 338,175 389,150

NC 37,000 38,000 1,980 2,200 73,260 83,600

sc 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 117,810 121,500

US 88,000 92,000 2,171 2,229 191,070 205,100
Type 14, GA-FL Belt

FL 7,500 7,700 2,680 2,500 20,100 19,250

GA 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,050 113,620 90,200

US 53,500 51,700 2,499 2,117 133,720 109,450

Total 11-14
Class 2, Fire-cured
Type 21, VA Belt

422,200 450,700 2,151 2,181 908,345 983,200

VA 1,100 1,200 1,580 1,500 1,738 1,800
Type 22, Eastern
District
KY 3,800 3,900 2,720 2,300 10,336 8,970
TN 7,500 7,600 2,550 2,200 19,125 16,720
US 11,300 11,500 2,607 2,234 29,461 25,690
Type 23, Western
District
KY 3,600 3,800 3,160 2,800 11,376 10,640
TN 580 580 2,850 2,200 1,653 1,276
US 4,180 4,380 3,117 2,721 13,029 11,916
Total 21-23 : 16,580 17,080 2,668 2,307 44,228 39,406
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-cured
Type 31, Burley
IN 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,000 14,972 17,800
KY 185,000 210,000 1,980 1,850 366,300 388,500
MO 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 6,021 6,355
NC 7,800 9,000 1,665 1,850 12,987 16,650
OH 3 8,000 9,500 1,580 1,940 12,640 18,430
TMN : 46,000 43,000 1,915 1,800 88,090 88,200
VA 3 9,500 10,000 1,835 1,800 17,433 18,000
wv 3 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,040 3,240
us + 268,300 301,300 1,940 1,849 520,483 $57,175
Type 32, Southern MD
Belt
MD : 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 10,000 12,000
PA z 3,200 3,000 1,900 1,800 6,080 5,400
US 11,200 11,000 1,436 1,582 16,080 17,400
Total 31-32 279,500 312,300 1,920 1,840 536,563 574,575
--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-27 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and
United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August i, 1997 1/

Area Harvested Production

: --- 1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Cwt

CA Hy 123.0 125.0 2,000 2,740 2,337 2,500
co : 125.0 125.0 2,000 2,558 2,250 2,500
pee) : 93.0 113.0 2,100 2,160 1,907 2,373
KS : 24.0 26.0 1,750 481 444 455
MI : 320.0 310.0 1,800 6,930 4,640 5,580
MN : 120.0 165.0 1,350 2,055 1,800 2,228
MT 3 10.3 11.7 2,200 205 235 257
NE : 195.0 180.0 2,000 3,588 3,705 3,600
NM t 12.0 12.0 2,200 252 264 264
NY z 29.0 39.5 1,600 538 377 632
ND 3 530.0 1,250 7,182 7,524 6,625
OR : 10.9 1,900 208 158 207
TX z 14.0 1,250 225 84 175
UT : 5.6 500 32 10 28
WA 38.0 2,050 902 710 779
Wr : 8.4 117 144 168
WY 3 36.0 640 765 792
us 1,750.1 27,354

1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-23 NASS, USDA


Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Grapes (Table Type) :

CA : 707,000 592,000 700,000
Grapes (Wine Type) :
CA : 2,275,000 2,225,000 2,700,000
Grapes (Raisin Type) 1/ t
CA : 2,252,000 2,186,000 2,600,000
All Grapes :
AZ : 26,000 25,000 23,000
AR : 8,000 9,000 8,000
CA : 5,234,000 5,003,000 6,000,000
GA : 3,200 3,500 4,000
MI H 70,000 65,000 60,000
MO 3 2,300 2,000 2,000
NY 3 165,000 189,000 155,000
NC 2 1,300 1,200 1,000
OH z 9,200 8,000 8,900
OR 3 14,000 15,000 18,000
PA : 63,000 83,000 65,000
sc : 300 500 450
WA : 326,000 144,000 299,000

5,922,300 5,548,200 6,644,350

1/ Fresh basis.

Ginger Root: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
Hawaii, 1995-97

200 275 43,000 47,000 44,000

Crop Production Agricultural statistics Board
August 1997 A-36 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

:-- 1,000 Acres -- --- Pounds --~ 0 ------- 1,000 Cwt -------
AR 7 1,170 1,337 6,150 5,850 73,020 71,945 78,215
CA : 500 513 7,490 8,200 35,352 37,459 42,066
LA : 533 565 4,870 4,800 26,209 25,977 27,120
MS : 208 268 6,000 5,500 15,552 12,480 14,740
MO : 90 95 5,550 5,400 5,936 4,995 5,130
TX : 298 259 6,200 5,700 17,802 18,465 14,763
us > 2,799 3,037 6,121 5,994 173,871 171,322 182,034

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Year Long Grain Medium Grain : Short Grain : All
1,000 cwt
1995 z 121,730 51,241 900 173,871
1996 : 56,790 1,069 171,321
1997 1/ 53,198 1,561 182,034

1/ Indicated August 1, 1997, rice class estimates are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1995-96
and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Production
State anne
1996 1997 4/
: 1,000 Tons
us 6,848.7 7,186.4 6,793.8

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-18 NASS, USDA


U.S. Corn Production
1988 - 1997

Billion Bushels
11.00

10.10

10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00

6.00

5.00

! ! | | ! i H i H
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year

4.00

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-10 NASS, USDA


Peaches: Total Production by Type, State, and United States,
1995-1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Million Pounds

AL 1/ 22.0 5 26.0
AR 1/ : 20.0 1.2 18.0
CA - Freestone 1t/ : 502.0 633.0 760.0
co l/ 3 17.0 17.0 9.0
cr i/ 3 2.1 2.8 2.9
DE 2/ : 2.0 2.1

GA 1/ : 160.0 10.0 160.0
ID 1/ : 4.0 8.5 5.5
IL 1/ : 13.0 2.0 12.5
IN 1/ 5.0 2.3 2.5
KS 1i/ : 1.0 4 2
KY 1/ 3 6.0 .7 3.0
LA 1/ 5.0 -2 5.0
MD 1/ : 12.0 9.3 8.0
MA 1/ 3 1.4 1.6 1.6
MI : 60.0 40.0 60.0
MO 1/ : 9.0 3.3 10.0
No 2 70.0 78.0 75.0
Ny 1s : 11.5 12.0 14.0
Nc ls . : 35.0 1.9 18.0
OH ly : 5.8 7.1 5.7
OK if 3/ 2 30.0 6.0
OR 1/ 2 3.0 11.0 13.0
PA 3 90.0 75.0 75.0
sc : 215.0 3.0 150.0
TN 1s 2 10.4 4 4.5
TX 1/ 2 24.0 6.0 20.0
UT 1/ : 6.3 7.0 6.5
VA 1/ : 26.0 14.0 8.0
WA 2 44.0 11.0 50.0
wy 1s t 18.0 16.0 14.0
Total Above : 1,436.5 977.3 1,543.9
CA - Clingstone 1/ : 865.0 1,093.0 1,100.0
US Total 3 2,301.5 2,070.3 2,643.9
1/ Estimates for current year curried forward from July 1 forecast.

2/ Forecast discontinued in 1997.

3/ No significant commercial production in 1996 due to freeze damage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-33 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and
United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 1/

Production

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres

CA 3 82.0 107.0

3,157

co 7 $1.1 67.0 1,420
ID : 184.0 196.0 4,998
MI : 130.0 160. 3,040
MN ES 438.0 445. 8,010
MT H 57.5 58. 1,240
NE : 51.2 59. 1,087
NM : .9 1. 38
ND z 225.3 230. 4,025
OH : 4.6 . 17
OR z 16.3 17. 436
TX : 12.6 16.0 336
WA : 13.0 18.2 654
wy 3 56.8 61.5 1,230

484
1,323.3 1,438.5 20.2 20.6 28,065 26,680 29,688

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA prior to 1996.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Production 1/

Area Harvested

FL : 438.0 438.0 33.1 34.0 15,122 14,498 14,892
HI : 46.0 35.0 79.1 82.0 4,070 3,639 2,870
LA : 370.0 390.0 27.9 28.0 10,240 10,323 10,920
TX 3 34.9 32.0 28.7 27.0 1,364 1,002 864
Us > 888.9 895.0 33.1 33.0 30,796 29,462 29,546
1/ Net tons.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-30 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:
United States,

Crop and Unit

(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre

Yield per Acre and Production,
1996-97

Production

Potatoes :
Winter Cwt :
Spring “ :
Summer " +
Fall _" :
Total . :

Sweet Cherries Ton :

Tart Cherries Lb :

Apricots Ton :

Dried Prunes (CA) " :

Almonds (CA) Lb :

Walnuts (CA) Ton

226
249
259
363
349

205
250
252

3,273
22,417
19,375
452,039
497,104
154.3
270,300
79.8
220.0
510,000

208.0

3,157
21,498
16,418

191.3
242,200
132.0
215.0
680,000
230.0

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Summary:

Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States,
(Metric Units)

1996-97

Yield per Hectare

Production

Potatoes
winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Total

Sweet Cherries

Tart Cherries

Apricots

Dried Prunes (CA)

Almonds (CA)

Walnuts (CA)

25.29
27.92
29.07
40.68
39.11

22.99
27.99
28.26

Metric Tons

148,460
1,016,820
878,840
20,504,150
22,548,270
139,980
122,610
72,390
199,580
231,330
188,690

143,200
975,130
744,710

173,500
109,860
119,750
195,040
308,440
208,650

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production
August 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1996 and Forecasted August 1,
(Metric Units)

1997

ield per Hectare

Production

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Oats
Barley
All Wheat
Winter
Durum
Other Spring
Rice
Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts
All Cotton
Upland
Amer-Pima
Cottonseed
All Hay
Alfalfa
All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed

Hops

Coffee (HI) 1/

Ginger Root (HI)

Apples, Comm'1l
Peaches

Pears

Grapes

Olives (CA)
Prunes and Plums
(Excl CA)

1/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production
August 1997

5.49

4.28
1.78
2.32
45.20

74.30
1.90
1.26

53.25

7.86 236,064,120
4.15 20,396,480
2.08 2,253,080
3.20 8,640,410
2.68 62,099,410
3.00 40,225,870
1.89 3,152,650
2.10 18,720,890
6.72 7,770,990
2.64 64,837,320
3.05 1,660,690
0.71 4,124,140
0.70 4,009,070
1.20 115,070
6,480,470

5.67 135,585,110
7.41 72,009,600
4.58 63,575,510
1.87 1,240,760
2.29 688,250
46.26 24,203,690
74.00 26,727,480
1.88 34,010
2,900

49.91 4,260
4,696,950

939,070

744,570

5,033,060

150,590

18,140

2,651,480
8,094,510
66,154,060
48,458,740
2,202,470
15,492,850

1,201,520

5,261,670

235,617,950
15,984,930
2,716,140
8,273,850
68,869, 860
50,497,730
2,453,620
15,918,510
8,256,920
74,691,720
1,723,750
3,871, 680
3,751,060
120,620

139,603,030
70,594,390
69,008,640

1,322,810
737,690
26,932,500

26,803,680
33,490

5,490
4,830,260
1,199,250

925,100
6,027,650
86,180

25,760

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Area Harvested Yield Production

1,000 Acres

AL : 315 380 34.

te) 29.0 5,400 10,710 11,020
AR : 3,500 3,550 32.0 32.0 88,400 112,000 113,600
DE : 217 221 35.0 26.0 4,660 7,595 5,746
FL : 33 38 32.0 30.0 728 1,056 1,140
GA : 390 420 26.0 28.0 8,370 10,140 11,760
IL : 9,850 9,950 40.5 43.0 378,300 398,925 427,850
IN > 5,360 5,350 38.0 44.0 196,710 203,680 235,400
IA > 9,450 10,400 44.0 49.0 407,440 415,800 509,600
KS > 2,000 2,300 37.0 32.0 51,250 74,000 73,600
KY : 1,180 1,280 38.0 36.0 41,400 44,840 46,080
LA : 1,080 1,350 33.0 29.0 26,000 35,640 39,150
MD : 480 530 37.0 29.0 11,730 17,760 15,370
MI 1,640 1,890 28.5 40.0 59,600 46,740 75,600
MN 5,900 6,700 38.0 42.0 234,900 224,200 281,400
MS 1,750 2,050 31.0 27.0 37,800 54,250 55,350
MO 4,050 4,850 37.0 34.0 132,750 149,850 164,900
NE 3,010 3,450 45.0 43.0 100,980 135,450 148,350
NO 119 132 37.0 30.0 3,036 4,403 3,960
NC 1,200 1,330 29.0 28.0 26,750 34,800 37,240
ND 845 1,290 29.0 28.0 18,560 24,505 36,120
OH 4,490 4,490 35.0 42.0 153,140 157,150 188,580
OK 285 320 26.0 26.0 5,500 7,410 8,320
PA 285 365 40.0 35.0 9,450 12,400 12,775
sc 540 610 25.0 26.0 12,720 13,500 15,860
SD 2,670 3,450 34.0 34.0 75,000 90,780 117,300
TN 1,150 1,270 35.0 32.0 34,560 40,250 40,640
TX 270 400 26.0 27.0 6,000 7,020 10,800
VA 480 490 34.0 30.0 11,280 16,320 14,700
WI 870 960 37.0 44.0 34,400 32,190 42,240
us 63,409 69,816 37.6 39.3 2,176,814 2,382,364 2,744,451
U.S. Soybean Production
1988 - 1997

Billion Bushels

3.00

2.80

2.60

2.40

2.20

2.00

1.80

1.60

1.40 . Hl 1 1 f 2 1 Hi »

1988 19898 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-19 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Area Harvested Production

--- Bushels --- - 1,000 Bushels
AL : 280 260 82.0 92.0 16,500 22,960
AZ. : 40 45 175.0 175.0 3,740 7,000
AR : 230 170 125.0 110.0 9,775 28,750
cA : 220 260 160.0 170.0 24,000 35,200
co : 940 1,030 142.0 148.0 92,130 133,480
cT 1/ :
DE : 150 146 143.0 100.0 14,595 21,450
FL : 112 80 88.0 100.0 5,400 9,856
GA : 525 500 95.0 107.0 31,500 49,875
ID 40 40 135.0 145.0 4,900 5,400
IL : 10,800 11,000 136.0 127.0 1,130,000 1,468,800
IN 5,450 5,850 123.0 127.0 598,900 670,350
IA : 12,450 11,950 138.0 140.0 1,402,200 1,718,100
KS + 2,350 2,700 152.0 130.0 244,280 357,200
KY : 1,200 1,220 124.0 108.0 123,120 148,800 131,760
LA H 523 490 125.0 115.0 23,205 65,375 56,350
ME 1/ :
MD : 465 450 139.0 85.0 42,000 64,635 38,250
MA 1/ :
MI 2,300 2,300 94.0 110.0 249,550 216,200 253,000
MN : 6,950 6,450 125.0 130.0 731,850 868,750 838,500
MS : 605 470 102.0 105.0 26,125 61,710 49,350
MO : 2,650 2,850 134.0 108.0 149,940 355,100 307,800
MT : 15 15 137.0 130.0 1,920 2,055 1,950
NE : 8,300 8,800 143.0 133.0 854,700 1,186,900 1,170,400
NH 1/
NJ : 94 102 126.0 95.0 7,254 11,844 9,690
NM : 84 85 175.0 170.0 11,680 14,700 14,450
NY, : 630 660 107.0 118.0 64,050 67,410 77,880
NC : 300 900 95.0 85.0 74,900 85,500 76,500
ND : 720 650 91.0 95.0 40,290 65,520 61,750
OH : 2,750 3,450 111.0 130.0 375,100 305,250 448,500
OK : 170 180 145.0 150.0 16,250 24,650 27,000
OR : 33 20 165.0 185.0 3,360 5,445 3,700
PA : 1,070 1,120 119.0 85.0 94,080 127,330 95,200
RI 1/ H
sc : 380 335 79.0 95.0 24,115 30,020 31,825
sD : 3,700 3,350 100.0 95.0 193,550 370,000 318,250
TN : 680 650 116.0 105.0 63,720 78,880 68,250
TX : 1,800 1,800 112.0 135.0 216,600 201,600 243,000
ur : 21 21 130.0 125.0 2,000 2,730 2,625
vT 1/ :
VA : 310 340 126.0 83.0 30,525 39,060 28,220
WA : 120 110 185.0 190.0 19,380 22,200 20,900
wy : 40 45 105.0 95.0 4,000 4,200 4,275
WI : 3,000 3,100 111.0 128.0 347,700 333,000 396,800
wy : 50 55 123.0 122.0 4,992 6,150 6,710
us 73,147 74,049 127.1 125.3 7,373,876 9,293,435 9,275,870
1/ Not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-9 NASS, USDA


Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

1,000 Acres Tons ---
AZ 160 180 8.00 8.00 1,287 1,280 1,440
AR 25 25 2.40 2,50 63 60 63
CA 940 970 7.00 7.00 6,486 6,580 6,790
co 860 860 3.50 3.80 3,060 3,010 3,268
cT 15 15 2.50 1.80 32 38 27
DE 7 7 4.60 3.80 is 32 27
ID 1,000 1,020 4.20 4.30 4,510 4,200 4,386
IL 600 600 3.60 3.60 2,480 2,160 2,160
IN 425 425 3.20 3.40 1,280 1,360 1,445
IA 1,200 1,250 3.60 3.40 4,860 4,320 4,250
KS 800 850 4.30 3.80 3,230 3,440 3,230
KY 300 300 3.60 2.90 7170 1,080 870
ME 10 8 3.00 2.00 30 30 16
MD 60 60 4.70 3.00 237 282 180
MA 15 20 2.00 1.80 48 30 36
MI 950 900 3.60 3.30 4,305 3,420 2,970
MN 1,475 1,450 3.10 3.40 4,988 4,573 4,930
MO 480 480 2.75 2.70 1,260 1,320 1,296
MT 1,700 1,750 2.10 2.50 4,000 3,570 4,375
NE 1,400 1,300 3.60 3.25 4,860 5,040 4,225
NV 240 240 4.50 4.50 1,080 1,080 1,080
NH 12 10 1.95 1.70 27 23 17
NO z 25 20 3.50 3.00 105 88 60
NM 255 275 5.40 5.40 1,325 1,377 1,485
NY 640 610 2.70 2.80 1,690 1,728 1,708
Nc : is 15 2.80 3.00 62 42 45
ND : 1,700 1,300 1.85 1.30 3,080 3,145 1,690
OH 700 600 3.00 3.40 2,660 2,100 2,040
OK 390 390 3.50 3.60 1,444 1,365 1,404
OR 460 465 4.40 4.60 1,935 2,024 2,139
PA 750 820 3.10 2.50 2,262 2,325 2,050
RI 2 1 2.90 2.00 4 6 2
sD 2,500 2,300 2.20 2.20 6,500 5,500 5,060
TN : 40 40 3.40 3.50 180 136 140
TX : 150 110 4.50 4.60 576 675 506
UT : 545 545 4.00 4.20 2,344 2,180 2,289
vT 3 65 60 2.10 1.80 200 137 108
VA 130 130 3.60 2.80 462 468 364
WA 490 480 4.70 5.20 2,550 2,303 2,496
wy 40 45 2.80 2.50 120 112 112
wt 2,100 2,000 2.50 2.70 5,980 5,250 5,400
wy 620 630 2.40 2.60 1,728 1,488 1,638
us : 24,292 23,556 3.27 3.30 84,515 79,377 77,817
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-25 NASS, USDA


NINSy National

Crop Cee
Production usps

Service
Washington, D.C.

y (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture, For
information on “Crop Production” call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 pm, ET. Forecast refers to August 1, 1997. Index and report
features are located at the end of this report

Corn Production at 9.28 Billion Bushels,
Record Soybean Production

Corn production is forecast at 9.28 billion bushels, virtually unchanged from
last year but up 26 percent from 1995. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are
expected to average 125.3 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from a year ago.
Acreage for harvest is estimated at 74.0 million acres, up 1 percent from 1996.

All cotton production is forecast at 17.8 million bales, down 6 percent from
1996. Yield is expected to average 637 pounds per acre, down 70 pounds from
last year. Producers planted 13.9 million acres this year, 5 percent less than
one year ago. Harvested acreage is estimated at 13.4 million acres, up

4 percent due to the large abandonment in Texas last year. Alabama’s abandoned
acreage is estimated at 100,000 acres, due to early season heavy rainfall and
the effects of hurricane Danny in late July. Cool temperatures in May and June
throughout most of the cotton belt, delayed development of the crop. The
dryland crop in the Plains of Texas had ample moisture throughout the season,
and development is ahead of average.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 2.74 billion bushels, up 15 percent
from 1996 and 9 percent above the 1994 record year. Yield is forecast at
39.3 bushels per acre, 1.7 bushels above last year, but 2.1 bushels below the
record yield in 1994. Area for harvest is estimated at 69.8 million acres.

Orr rrr rrr oro rrr rer

The release of the “Cranberries” report will be on Tuesday, August 19, at
1 p.m. The report was previously scheduled for release on August 20, 1997, at
1 p.m.

The 1996-97 end-of-season Florida grapefruit estimates scheduled for release in
the “Citrus Fruits” report on September 23, 1997, will also be released in the
“Crop Production” report on September 12, 1997. This early release will allow
the 1996-97 estimates to be available for a September 17 hearing in Lakeland, FL
on a proposed State grapefruit marketing order.

Cr Pr 2-2 (8-97)a


the dry conditions. As of August 1, 37 percent of Kentucky’s burley was
blooming, compared to 44 percent last year and a 51 percent average.

All indications point to a below average year for Tennessee's tobacco crop.
Early and midseason set tobacco condition ranges from very poor to fair. Too
much rain in June and too little rain in July have caused above average disease;
uneven, irregular stands; and premature blooming. Late set tobacco looks fair
to good. Recent rains have promoted good growth, but not all the state’s
tobacco producing areas received significant rainfall.

Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 29.7 million tons, an
increase of 11 percent from 1996. Area for harvest, at

1.44 million acres, is down slightly from the June “Acreage” report but up

9 percent from last year. The average yield, at 20.6 tons per acre, is 0.4 tons

above last year’s yield.

Cool, wet weather early in the spring resulted in excess soil moisture in
several sugarbeet-producing States. However, a dry July helped development in
most areas. Despite excess rain in some areas of North Dakota, dry weather in
July has allowed fields to dry out and sugarbeets have slowly improved as a
result. Hence, North Dakota growers remain optimistic about this year’s
sugarbeet crop. In Colorado, crop development was mostly favorable until heavy
rains at the end of July flooded some fields, which may not be harvested.
Wyoming experienced a wet spring, however hot, dry weather during the summer
pushed crop development ahead of the average pace. Harvest in California has
been progressing normally across the State for the past three weeks.

Sugarcane: Sugarcané production for sugar and seed is expected to total

29.5 million tons, a fractional increase from 1996. The area for
harvest, at 895,000 acres, is down slightly from the June “Acreage” report and
up 1% from last year. Forecasted yield, at 33.0 tons per acre, is 0.1 ton below
the 1996 yield.

In Louisiana, the 1997 sugarcane crop is expected to set a production record.
Favorable weather, increased plantings of a new, high yielding variety and
increased usage of a new, more efficient mechanical combine harvester have
boosted yield prospects. Growth in Louisiana was exceptional during July
because of timely rains and hot weather. However, growers could not lay-by a
few fields in time because of too much rain and those fields are weedy. Florida
sugarcane growers expect to harvest about the same size crop as in 1996. Thus
far, there have been no major problems with the crop. Wet conditions slowed
sugarcane harvest in Hawaii, but as yet have not affected production.

Irrigation water supplies were a concern in Texas as July was very ary.

Prunes and Plums: Production in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is
forecast at 28,400 tons, up 42 percent from last year and
26 percent above 1995.

The Michigan plum forecast of 4,500 tons is up 8D percent from 1996, but

40 percent below 1995. Fruit set was heavy in the west central area, but spotty
in the southwest. Record low temperatures in May caused fruit development to be
1 to 2 weeks behind normal. Oregon's production forecast is 13,000 tons, more
than double the amounts of the previous two years. Growing conditions were more
favorable than last year. Larger fruit is expected due to adequate moisture
early in the growing season. Washington's forecast of 7,000 tons is up

17 percent from 1996 and up 8 percent from 1995. Growing conditions were better
than the last two years. Idaho expects 3,900 tons, down 29 percent from last
year, but 30 percent higher than the record low in 1995.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-12 NASS, USDA


Oats:

and United States,

Area Harvested, Yield,

and Production by State
1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Area Harvested

Production

State

AL 1/ :
AR i/ :

MD 1/

=
B

zg

20
25
30
35
35
25
70
25
190
80
28
7
60
270
29
50

1,000 Acres

23
17
30
28
40
20
75
35
260
80
23
8
90
360
25
70
110
110
25
500
110
45
38
160
30
330
150
3

53.0

60.0
60.0
52.0
74.0
75.0
47.0
61.0
60.0

56.7

40
61
80
60
62
70

72.
67.

74

64.

70
70

58.

53
65
55

65.
60.
68.

74

46.

97
55
60
60
52
74
80
47
61
61

58.

.0 900
0 1,800
+0 2,250
.0 1,820
.0 2,240
0 1,875
) 4,620
0 1,600
0 12,920
0 4,160
0 2,100
-0 434
0 3,600
-0 15,120
+0 1,537
-0 2,000
0 7,455
0 4,275
0 1,200
0 19,000
.0 5,130
0 600
-0 3,395
.0 7,560
-0 1,620
-0 21,600
-0 3,400
-0 648
-0 1,120
-0 150
.0 17,400
0 1,696
1 155,225

-- 1,000 Bushels

920
1,037
2,400
1,680
2,480
1,400
5,400

22,570
1,830

187,127

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Produc
August 1997

tion

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain:
and United States,

: Area Harvested

AL : 10
AR : 220
co : 260
GA 3 40
IL : 220
KS : 4,600
KY : 23
LA : 153
MS : 72
MO : 580
NE : 1,030
NM : 225
NC 2 10
OK : 490
sc : 5
sD 3 145
TN 2 18
TX : 3,800
US 11,901

1,000 Acres

9

150
160
40
150
3,550
13
107
33
430
800
230
11
490

4

170
15
3,150

-- Bushels --

55.0
74.0
51.0
41.0
84.0
77.0
92.0
76.0
70.0
91.0
95.0
33.0
57.0
59.0
50.0
55.0
90.0
48.0

60.
70.
35.
46.
82.
70.
75.
75.
65.
78.
90.
42.
49,
54.
50.
55.
85.
59.

ie)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

to}
0
0
0

0
0

320
13,135
4,620
1,110
11,730
173,600
1,848
5,880
2,665
35,770
56,840
3,380
650
12,800
320
4,800
1,305
129,600

460,373

Product ion

- 1,000 Bushels -

550
16,280
13,260
1,640
18,480
354,200
2,116
11,628
5,040
52,780
97,850
7,425
570
28,910
250
7,975
1,620

182,400

802,974

1997

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
1995-96 and Forecasted August 1,

540
10,500
5,600
1,840
12,300
248,500
975
8,025
2,145
33,540
72,000
9,660
539
26,460
200
9,350
1,275
185,850

629,299

Crop Production
August 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


good-to-excellent condition. If realized, this will be the highest yielding
and largest producing Texas crop on record. The increase in production is
mainly due to record yields, an 11 percent increase in acreage, and a large
shift in peanut acreage from South Central Texas to West Texas’s irrigated area.
Through August 3, New Mexico producers indicated minimal disease problems and
excellent crop development.

Rice: Rice production is forecast at 182 million cwt, 6 percent above 1996 and
5 percent above 1995. This production level, if realized, would be the
third highest production on record. Production and acreage are above last year
in all States except Texas. Yields are expected to average a near-record
5,994 pounds per acre, down 127 pounds from 1996's record level. In California,
the crop remained nearly 2 weeks ahead of normal at the beginning of August.
Arkansas’s crop was rated at 76 percent good-to-excellent condition on August 3,
despite less than average crop development. Rice harvest is underway in Texas
and Louisiana.

Soybeans: Acres planted to soybeans at 70.9 million acres are unchanged
from the June 1 estimate. Growers plan to harvest 69.8 million
acres, virtually the same as the June 1 forecast.

In the eight major soybean producing states, the average planting date was two
weeks ahead of the last two years and comparable to the 1994 planting season.
Plant maturity is well ahead of 1996 in the major producing states. Fields in
the Southeast progressed slightly behind last year and the five year average due
to late plantings. Average number of lateral branches is up from last year with
Indiana showing the only decrease.

As of August 3, the percent of soybeans blooming was 81 percent compared

66 percent during the same period last year and a five year average of

73 percent. In Ohio, blooming was ahead of last year by 49 points and 8 points
ahead of the five year average. Soybeans percent blooming in Illinois and
Indiana were 31 points ahead of last year. The percent of beans setting pods
was 38 percent as of August 3, compared to 25 percent during the same period
last year last year. Overall, soybeans were in mostly good to fair condition.

Cotton: Upland cotton plantings, at 13.7 million acres, are down 5 percent

from the previous year. However, harvested acreage increased 4 percent
to 13.2 million acres, due to the large abandonment last year in Texas.
American-Pima planted and harvested acreages decreased by 3 percent from last
year to 250,000 acres and 249,000 acres, respectively.

Texas’ irrigated fields are showing good progress this season, and unusually
high amounts of rainfall in May caused the dryland acreage to develop ahead of
the average pace. Squaring was about 10 points ahead of average and on August
3, 71 percent of the cotton fields were setting bolls, which was 11 points above
the 5-year average. In the Plains, heavy rain and hail during June damaged
fields and forced producers to replant, or plant alternative crops. In early
August, some fields were showing stress from lack of moisture. Harvest pace
increased gradually in the Coastal Bend and Rio Grande Valley. On August 3,
53 percent of the Texas acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, and
35 percent was in fair condition. Data from the objective yield survey show
fruit counts as the sixth highest since 1987.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated most of their cotton acreage in fair to good condition in early August,
with about 40 percent of the Arkansas and Louisiana crop in good condition and
60 percent of Mississippi's crop in good condition. Only 3 percent of the
Arkansas crop was rated in excellent condition, while 7 percent of Louisiana's

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-8 NASS, USDA



Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 1996-97

Area Fresh Production

Month

3,660 5,245 1,830 2,265 3,105 2,830
3,600 5,280 1,740 2,330 2,875 2,900

Hops: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and
United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

1996

~ Acres - 1,000 Pounds
ID : 3,997 3,800 1,400 1,380 5,969.0 5,596.0 5,244.0
OR : 8,486 8,351 1,383 1,550 13,782.4 11,734.5 12,944.0
WA : 31,678 31,800 1,820 1,750 59,101.0 57,640.0 55,650.0

78,852.4 74,970.5 73,838.0

Olives: Total Production, California,
1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-32 NASS, USDA


Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.90 million pounds for

July, 2 percent more than a month ago and 1 percent more than July
1996. July weather conditions were a mix of sunshine and showers throughout the
month. Papaya ringspot virus continued to depress yields and shorten the life
on infected fields.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 5,280 acres, 1 percent more than June
and 47 percent more than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 2,330 acres, was
3 percent more than last month and 34 percent more than in July 1996.

Hops: Hop production in 1997 in Idaho, Oregon and Washington is forecast at
73.8 million pounds, down 2 percent from last year and 6 percent below
1995. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1991's
69.2 million pounds. Acreage strung for harvest, at 43,951 acres, is down less
than 1 percent from last year’s 44,161 acres, while yields, at 1,680 pounds per
acre, are 18 pounds below 1996 and the lowest level since 1990's 1,603 pounds.
Washington growers are expecting yields 70 pounds per acre below 1996 and at the
lowest level since 1990's 1,634 pounds per acre. Powdery mildew is widespread,
and an extensive spray program is underway. A wet, cool spring siowed hop
development in Idaho resulting in an estimated average yield of 1,380 pounds per
acre compared with 1,400 pounds in 1996 and 1,520 in 1995. Producers in Oregon
anticipate an average 1,550 pounds per acre, up 167 pounds from 1996.

Olives: The 1997 olive crop forecast is 95,000 tons, down 43 percent from the

1996 production of 166,000 tons. A warm, mild spring brought a heavy
bloom, however the resulting fruit set was light compared to last year. The
Manzanillo variety accounts for about 70 percent of the total production.
Growers expect the Manzanillo variety yield to be down 53 percent. Growers
expect the yield of Sevillano and Ascolano varieties, which account for about
23 percent of production, to be down by 30 and 18 percent, respectively.

Peaches: The 1997 peach crop decreased slightly from the July 1 forecast to
2.64 billion pounds, but is up 28 percent from 1996 and 15 percent
from 1995 for comparable states. New Jersey was the only state to adjust its
production forecast from the July report, decreasing expected production
5 million pounds to 75 million pounds, mainly because of a drought in early
July. Forecasts for Michigan, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Washington were
unchanged from July. In Pennsylvania, peaches are progressing well, but fruit
size is expected to be smaller than normal due to the hot, dry weather. Harvest
has begun in southwestern Michigan.

The U.S. Freestone crop as of August 1 is forecast at 1.54 billion pounds, up
58 percent from 1996 and 8 percent above 1995 for comparable states. The April
and May 1997 frosts and generally wet spring were the most widespread weather
problems facing U.S. peach producers this year. Production in South Carolina
and Oklahoma is below normal levels.

California's Clingstone crop, at 1.10 billion pounds, shows a 1 percent increase
from the 1996 production.

The California Freestone crop is expected to produce 760 million pounds,
20 percent above 1996 and 51 percent above 1995.

Apples: The nation’s apple production is forecast at 10.6 billion pounds, up
3 percent from the 1996 crop, but 7 percent below 1994's record large
crop.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-13 NASS, USDA


Prunes and Plums: Total Production by State and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Total Production

ID: : 3,000 5,500 3,900
MI : 7,500 2,500 4,500
OR : 5,500 6,000 13,000
WA 3 6,500 6,000 7,000

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-31 NASS, USDA


Selected Crops: Area Planted by State, 1997,
and United States, 1995-97

: Dry
State Upland Peanuts Sugarbeets Edible
Cotton Beans

AL 520.0 190.0

AZ z 330.0

AR 950.0

CA 880.0 110.0 130.0

co 68.4 *140.0

DE

FL *100.0 90.0

GA 1,440.0 520.0

ID 197.0 115.0

IL

IN

IA

KS 15.0 29.0

KY

LA 590.0

MD

MI 163.0 320.0

MN 450.0 180.0

MS : 980.0

MO 370.0

MT 59.7 *12.2

NE 3 66.0 190.0

NV :

No :

NM : 70.0 17.5 1.6 *12.0

NY : *40.0

NC : 690.0 130.0

ND 3 233.0 630.0

OH : *.9

OK : 220.0 85.0

OR 3 17.2 11.0

PA :

sc 3 *290.0 *10.5

sD :

TN : 510.0

TX > *5,600.0 300.0 16.5 15.0

UT : *5.8

VA : *100.0 *75.0

WA 3 *18.5 *38.0

WV 3

wt 3 8.6

wy : 63.0 37.0

US *13,655.0 *1,418.0 *1,464.8 *1,913.6
Year nited States

1995 : 16,716.8 1,537.5 1,444.6 2,069.3

1996 14,375.5 1,401.5 1,368.4 1,813.0

1997 13,655.0 1,418.0 1,464.8 1,913.6

* Updated from "Acreage" released June 30, 1997.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-8 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted, by Commercial Class, State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 (continued)

1,000 Acres

ROLCMIYD®ZODOCOIWS

NY z

ND : 1
WA
Total

o
©

Blackeye

OPPYWRIUEN@DwWOON

s

fe)
>
wu
i

1,813.0 1,913.6
Garbanzo
CA :
ID :
OR :

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-22 NASS, USDA




July Weather Summary: Extremely dry and occasionally hot weather in the central
Corn Belt highlighted a month of extremes. Farther east,
the remnants of Hurricane Danny charted a slow but steady course from
July 17-25, joining with a slow-moving front to soak the Southeast and ease
dryness in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Nevertheless, drought continued to
develop in most areas from northern Virginia to southern New England.
Meanwhile, monsoonal rains arrived across the High Plains and West late in the
month, easing drought in some areas but causing flash flooding. On the northern
Plains, an usually strong early-month storm delivered heavy rainfall, boosting
topsoil moisture. However, drier-than-normal conditions returned thereafter,
permitting the winter wheat harvest to advance but stressing summer crops.
Farther south, the central Plains' winter wheat harvest wound down with few
interruptions.

Monthly temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees F below normal across the interior
West, and up to 2 degrees F above normal in the Southeast. From July 1-7,

cool air overspread the Western and Central States in the wake of the strong
early-month storm, setting nearly 100 daily-record lows and several July
records. A welcomed shot of cool air arrived across the Midwest and East at
month's end, resulting in more than two dozen daily records. In between, highs
soared into the middle 90's to near 100 degrees F on July 13-18 and 25-28 across
parts of the Midwestern and Middle Atlantic States.

From central Missouri to central Indiana, rainfall as little as 0.50 to

1.00 inch and the aforementioned periods of hot weather stressed corn and
soybeans entering and progressing through reproduction. In Indiana,
Ind@ianapolis' rainfall of 0.55 inches (12 percent [%] of normal) was their
lowest July total since 1914. In addition, a maximum of 99 degrees F on July 27
was their highest since July 14, 1995. Other central Corn Belt stations
reporting less than 1 inch included the Illinois cities of Peoria (0.90 inches;
21% of normal) and Springfield (0.89 inches; 25%). In eastern Iowa, only

1.52 inches (37% of normal) dampened Cedar Rapids. Youngstown, OH experienced a
record-dry July, receiving only 0.65 inches (16% of normal).

In contrast, very heavy rain soaked the upper Mississippi Valley. In Minnesota,
Minneapolis received 12.60 inches, their second-highest July total, fueled by
daily-record amounts on July 1 (2.85 inches), 17 (3.71 inches), and

22 (2.69 inches). Rochester, MN absorbed 9.01 inches, their fourth-highest July
total and greatest since 1981. Heavy rain fell as far south and east and Des
Moines, IA, where a calendar-day, July-record total of 4.45 inches fell on the
24th.

Hurricane Danny crossed the mouth of the Mississippi River on the night of July
17-18, producing a northeasterly wind gust to 95 mph on Grand Isle, LA. The
hurricane's sustained winds increased to 80 mph on the 19th as it battered
Dauphin Island, AL and wobbled into Mobile Bay. The Dauphin Island Sea Lab
clocked a wind gust to 86 mph and recorded 36.71 inches of rain, 25.98 inches of
which fell in 7 hours late on July 19. Major flooding struck southern Alabama,
where up to 27.00 inches of rain fell. The Fish River near Silverhill crested
3.5 feet higher than the previous record, set on June 9, 1989. Mobile, AL
netted 10.06 inches on 19th and a storm total of 13.04 inches, boosting their
monthly rainfall to 18.52 inches, their third-highest July total. Danny's storm
tides topped 5 feet in a few locations, peaking at 6.54 feet just east of Gulf
Shores, AL. During the same period (July 16-19), a slow-moving, non-tropical
disturbance dumped as much as 4 to 10 inches of rain on northern Oklahoma and
southern Kansas.

Moisture-laden Danny eventually proceeded into northern Alabama by July 22 as a
tropical depression before turning northeastward. Meanwhile, a cold front
drifted southward into the Middle Atlantic region, sparking additional heavy
rains. On July 23, Charlotte, NC collected 6.88 inches, breaking their
24-hour rainfall record of 5.46 inches, set on October 10-11, 1990. Danny
re-intensified while approaching the coast on July 24, producing wind gusts to

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-3 NASS, USDA



58 mph in Elizabeth City, NC and 61 mph at Cape Henry, VA. On the afternoon of
July 25, Tropical Storm Danny passed about 15 miles southeast of Nantucket
Island, MA, packing wind gusts as high as 70 mph. En route to coastal New
England, Danny helped to produce single-day, July-record rainfalls in Newark, NU
(3.54 inches) and New York's Central Park (3.75 inches).

However, significant rainfall missed many areas from northern Virginia to
southern New England, helping to hold monthly rainfall as low as 1.14 inches
(30% of normal) in Washington, DC, 1.34 inches (35%) in Scranton, PA, and
0.63 inches (22%) in Boston, MA. In Williamsport, PA, rainfall for the first
7 months of the year slipped to 56% of normal. Portland, ME ended the month
with 13 consecutive rainless days, their longest such streak since August 7-26,
1995. Meanwhile in parts of Texas, conditions suddenly turned dry. For the
fourth time on record and the first time since 1993 only a trace of rain fell
during July in both Brownsville and San Antonio. Despite the short-term
dryness, the area was spared from excessive heat; San Antonio's maximum of

99 degrees F on July 30 was their highest of the year to date. The last time
San Antonio's temperature failed to reach 100 degrees F during a calendar year
was 1979.

Farther west, mid-month heat presaged the arrival of monsoonal moisture. In
Arizona, Tucson's maximum of 110 degrees F on July 15 was their highest since
July 29, 1995. On July 20, a plume of tropical moisture helped to spark a
1.61-inch rainfall in 31 minutes at Billings, MT. During the last week of July,
localized heavy downpours battered the High Plains and interior West. On July
28, as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain overwhelmed the Spring Creek basin in

Ft. Collins, CO. Preliminary data indicated that the nearby Cache la Poudre
River at Ft. Collins rose 4.79 feet (flow increased 2,869 cubic feet per second)
on the day of the flood. The next evening, intense rainfall struck locations
such as Amarillo, TX (2.80 inches in 39 minutes) and Colorado Springs, CO

(2.02 inches in 34 minutes). On July -30, Denver, CO (2.71 inches) endured their
heaviest 24-hour rainfall ever in July. And in Phoenix, AZ, a 117-day streak
without measurable rainfall--their sixth longest on record--ended on July 30.

The early part of July featured a spring-like storm and an unusually cool
outbreak. The storm intensified rapidly across the northern Plains on July 1,
reaching southeastern Canada 2 days later. Monthly record minima were
established in Ely, NV (28 degrees F on July 1), Alamosa, CO (30 degrees F on
July 2), North Platte, NE (39 degrees F on July 4), Kansas City, MO (51 degrees
F on July 5), and International Falls, MN (34 degrees F on July 7). In
Williston, ND, a 4.82-inch rainfall on duly 1 boosted their monthly total to
6.62 inches, 75% of their year-to-date total. Non-thunderstorm winds in the
storm's wake gusted to 61 mph in Chamberlain, SD and 52 mph in Worthington, MN.
Sixteen tornadoes raked Michigan, however, on July 2, a State single-day record.
A day later, additional severe thunderstorms ripped through interior New
England. Two weeks later, adverse weather returned to New England in the form
of heavy rain. Flooding occurred in northern Vermont as July 13-15 rainfall
topped 6 inches in some locations.

Warm (temperatures up to 5 degrees F above normal), dry weather prevailed in
much of Alaska. One exception was the southeast, where Juneau tallied a
July-record total of 10.36 inches (249% of normal). But in McGrath, where
temperatures averaged 5 degrees F above normal, rainfall totaled just

0.40 inches (20% of normal) and smoke was observed on 29 days. By August 1,
more than 70% of the United States’ year-to-date burned acreage of 2.18 million
acres (about 3,400 square miles) was in Alaska. Meanwhile in Hawaii,
temperatures averaged slightly above normal and heavy rain fell in windward
(east-facing) areas, including 19.37 inches (199% of normal) in Hilo.

General Crop Comments: Drier, warmer weather in July allowed farmers across the
United States to cultivate fields and apply fertilizer
and pesticides. Sunshine and warmth early in the month promoted rapid crop

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-4 NASS, USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative
Apples, Commercial.... A-34 B-14
Area Planted, By States. A- 8
Barley............ . A-13 B- 7
Beans, Dry Edible A-21 B- 9
Coffee...... . A-35
Corn for Grain, A- 9 B- 5
Cotton...... A-20 B- 9
Cottonseed A-18 B- 9
Crop Moisture Map B- 1
Crop Summary. beeen A- 3
Drought Severity Map.. B- 2
Ginger Root. . beens A-36 B-16
Grapes. A-36 B-15
Hay, All... . A-24 B-11
Hay, Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures. oe A-25 B-11
Hay, All Other. . A-26 B-11
Hops.... . A-32 B-11
Oats.... . A-12 B- 6
Olives as A-32 B-14
Papayas-Hawaii.. A-31 B-13
Peaches. A-33 B-14
Peanuts A-17 B-14
Pears....... A-35 B- 8
Prunes & Plums... A-31 B-13
Reliability. B-18
Rice........ A-18 B- 8
Rice, By Class..... A-18
Sorghum For Grain... A-11 B- 6
Soybeans For Beans.. A-19 B- 8
Sugarbeets..... we eeee . . A-30 B-13
Sugarcane For Sugar & Seed. ane oe A-30 B-13
Tobacco, By Class and Type........ A-27 B-12
Tobacco, By States... . oe : A-29
Wheat, All........... . A-14 B- 7
Wheat, by Class. . . A-17
Wheat, Durum.... A-16 Br
Wheat, Other Spring. . A-16 B- 7
Wheat, Winter + . A-15 B- 7
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-19 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997 (continued)

Area Harvested Production

Class and Type i-

--- Pounds

--- 1,000 Pounds ---

Class 3, Air-cured :
Class 3B, Dark :
Air-cured

Type 35, One Sucker

Belt
KY 2,100 2,200 2,340 2,100 4,914 4,620
TN : 480 490 2,125 1,900 1,020 931
Us : 2,580 2,699 2,300 2,064 5,934 5,551
Type 36, Green River :
Belt :
KY : 1,200 1,200 2,180 2,400 2,616 2,880
Type 37, VA Sun-cured:
Belt :
VA : 70 70 1,600 1,400 112 98
Total 35-37 : 3,850 3,969 2,250 2,154 8,662 8,529

Class 4, Cigar Filler
Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA t 4,600 4,600 2,040 1,950 9,384 8,970
Class 5, Cigar Binder
Class 5A, CT valley

Binder :
Type 51, CT valley :
Broadleaf z
cT : 1,220 1,350 1,840 1,860 2,245 2,511
MA 3 410 650 1,600 1,820 656 1,183
us : 1,630 2,000 1,780 1,847 2,901 3,694

Class 5B, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI:

wr 3 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,300 3,610 4,370
Type 55, Northern WI:
wl : 1,000 850 1,535 1,650 1,535 1,403
Total 54-55 3 2,900 2,750 1,774 2,099 5,145 5,773
Total 51-55 : 4,530 4,750 1,776 1,993 8,046 9,467
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:
Type 61, CT Valley :
Shade-grown :
cT 3 1,040 1,100 1,490 1,400 1,550 1,540
MA 3 390 450 1,425 1,400 556 630
US : 1,430 1,550 1,473 1,400 2,106 2,170
All Cigar Types :
Total 41-61 : 10,560 10,900 1,850 1,891 19,536 20,607

All Tobacco 732,690 794,940 2,071 2,046 1,517,334 1,626,317

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-28 NASS, USDA


USDA to Hold Data Users Meeting
Holiday Inn Mart Plaza
Chicago, Illinois
October 20, 1997

The National Agricultural Statistics Service
will be organizing an open forum for Data
Users. The purpose will be to provide updates
on pending changes in the USDA statistical and
information programs including the status of
the 1997 Census of Agriculture, and to seek

}comments and input from data users. Other
agencies to be represented will include the
Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic
Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural
Service, and the World Agricultural Outlook
Board.

For registration details, see the NASS home
page http://www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact
Fred Vogel (NASS)

(202) 720-3896 or fvogel@nass.usda.gov

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-22 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Oats
Barley
All Wheat
Winter
Durum
Other Spring
Rice 1/
Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts
All Cotton 1/
Upland 1/
Amer-Pima 1/
Cottonseed
All Hay
Alfalfa
All Other
Dry Edible Beans 1/
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed
Hops
Coffee (HI) 2/
Ginger Root (HI)
Apples, Comm'l
Peaches
Pears
Grapes
Olives
Prunes
(Excl

(CA)
and Plums
CA)

Yield per Acre and Production,
1997

1996 and Forecasted August 1,

(Domestic Units)

United States,

247,000

Yield per Acre:

9,293,435
802,974
155,225
396,851

2,281,763

1,478,048
115,840
687,875
171,321

2,382,364

3,661,205

18,942.0
18,413.5
528.5
7,143.5
149,457
79,377
70,080
27,354
1,517,334
26,680

29,462
74,970.5
6,400
9,400
10,355,000
2,070,300
820.8
5,548.0
166.0

Production

9,275,870
629,299
187,127
380,015

2,530,534

1,855,474

90,155
584,905
182,034

2,744,451

3,800,225

17,782.5
17,228.5
554.0

569,265

153,886
77,817
76,069
29,163

1,626,317
29,688

29,546
73,838.0

12,100
10,648,900
2,643,900
1,019.8
6,644.4
95.0

2,648,900

5,800.0

1/ Yield in pounds.
2/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production
August 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS,

USDA


followed by Nebraska, down 16 percent, and Michigan, down 13 percent. Harvested
area in North Dakota is down 24 percent from a year ago, but yields have also
been hurt by dry conditions, especially in the western part of the State.

Nebraska‘s alfalfa crop has been suffering due to insect damage and short
moisture supplies. The coldest May on record in Michigan along with a dry June
and July have combined to drop alfalfa hay yields to the lowest since 1988. The
top two producing States, California and Wisconsin, were both up 3 percent from
1996. Warm, dry weather and adequate water for irrigation helped boost
production in California, while above normal rainfall since early June in
Wisconsin has resulted in higher yielding second and third crop hay.

All Other Hay: The forecast for 1997 production is 76.1 million tons, 9 percent

above the year earlier. If realized, this will be the largest
other hay production on record. Record level hay prices and low hay stocks were
the driving factors behind this increase. Average yields are also expected to
set a new record at 2.04 tons per acre, up 0.13 tons from 1996. Harvested area
is estimated at 37.3 million acres, up 1 percent from last year and the largest
acreage since 1988.

Texas showed the largest increase in other hay production, up 71 percent from
1996 to 12.2 million tons and a new State record. If realized, this will
surpass the old record of 9.25 million tons in 1991 and 1992 by 32 percent.
Texas farmers expect to harvest a half a million more acres than a year ago with
forecasted yields up 0.90 tons per acre from 1996. Other major States showing
increases were: Minnesota, up 61 percent; Ohio, up 35 percent; Georgia, up

25 percent; and Arkansas, up 12 percent. Declining production is expected in
the Northern Plain States (Kansas, Nebraska, North and South Dakota), as well as
Iowa, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Declines were also
common throughout the Northeast. Acreage is down in many of these States, but
yield prospects have also been hurt by a cool, wet spring and the current dry
conditions.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 1.63 billion

pounds, up 7 percent from 1996. Yields for 1997 are estimated to
average 2,046 pounds per acre, 25 pounds below the average for 1996. Harvested
acres are expected to be 794,940 acres, up 8 percent from last year.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 983 million pounds, up 8 percent from
a year ago. Yield per acre for all flue-cured is forecast at 2,181 pounds, up
30 pounds from the 1996 average yield. Flue-cured growers plan to harvest
450,700 acres, 7 percent above last year. Flue-cured tobacco accounts for

61 percent of this year’s total tobacco production.

Burley production is expected to total 557 million pounds, 7 percent above the
1996 production. Yield is expected to average 1,849 pounds per acre, 91 pounds
below the average for 1996. Burley tobacco growers expect to harvest

301,300 acres, 12 percent above last year. Kentucky’s acreage for harvest is
14 percent above a year ago, and the state has 70 percent of the 1997 burley
production.

Flue-cured tobacco prospects in North Carolina improved with the arrival of much
needed rains. Hurricane Danny blew through parts of the tobacco belts
inflicting damage in some areas but helping most farmers with the moisture.

Crop progress is still behind normal at this time due to the abnormal cool and
dry weather that the major producing areas experienced early in the growing
season. All North Carolina markets have opened to light volume due to low
carryover stocks and slower crop progress.

Wet weather at setting time and the current dry conditions continue to stress
Kentucky's tobacco crop. Condition of the crop as of August 1 was 11 percent
very poor, 33 percent poor, 35 percent fair, 19 percent good and 2 percent
excellent. Some blue mold is present, but the disease has been held in check by

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-1l NASS, USDA


crop and 8 percent of Mississippi's crop was excellent. The planting pace in
this region, lagged behind the average due to wet soils and because other row
crops were being planted, but seedings were completed in early June.
Precipitation was above normal and caused concern about proper root development.
Another concern was the cooler than normal temperatures that prevailed during
the early season, slowing crop development. In early July, squaring percentages
were well behind the average, and in late July Mississippi was 9 points behind
average, while Missouri and Tennessee were 8 and 5 points behind average,
respectively. However, Arkansas and Mississippi boll set was slightly above
average on August 3, at 97 percent and 95 percent respectively. Dry July
weather in Missouri caused the crop’s boll set to be 8 points behind average on
this same date, and condition of the crop continued to deteriorate. On August
3, 31 percent of Missouri's acreage was rated as very poor to poor.

During the first week of August, 81 percent of Arizona's crop was in good to
excellent condition. Early planting approval was again granted in Arizona to
lessen effects of whitefly, and the crop also benefitted from good weather.
Boll set was 98 percent complete on August 3, equal to last year and 1 point
above average. All of California's crop was in good to excellent condition on
the same date, and boll set, at 90 percent, was equal to the 5-year development
pace. California's seeding pace was well ahead of average most of the season as
warm, dry weather prevailed. Soil crusting in the Fresno area caused some
replantings. Data from objective yield plots indicate California’s count of
large bolls are the fifth highest and small bolls are the sixth highest since
1987.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina), the planting pace was behind average early in the season, but a dry
period in mid-May allowed producers to exceed the average pace. Early June
storms in Georgia and Alabama replenished soil moisture and improved crop
condition. Many fields in Georgia and Alabama were replanted due to seedling
disease, cool temperatures causing poor stands, and soil crusting from the heavy
rains. Alabama was subject to unusual heavy rainfall during the season, as well
as the cool temperatures. Hurricane Danny entered into the southwestern portion
of the State in late July with torrential rains, and added to the crop’s
deterioration. On August 3, Alabama’s crop was rated at 11 percent very poor,
20 percent poor, and only 4 percent was in excellent condition. On this same
date, sixty~six percent of Georgia’s crop was in good to excellent condition,

68 percent of the North Carolina crop and 79 percent of South Carolina’s crop
was in good to excellent condition.

American-Pima production is forecast at 554,000 bales, up 5 percent from 1996's
output. Yield is indicated at 1,068 pounds per harvested acre, up 77 pounds
from last year. Arizona yields are down 60 pounds from last year, at

792 pounds. California yields are 1,174 pounds, up 76 pounds from 1996's crop.
Arizona’s condition is rated at slightly above average, and the development
varies according to the time of planting. The California crop experienced
virtually ideal growing conditions in June and July, with development nearly
two weeks ahead of normal. However, lygus bug pressure caused significant
square shedding on some of the acreage in the San Joaquin Valley. The Texas
crop has also progressed with irrigation and hot temperatures.

Ginnings totaled 2,200 running bales prior to August 1, compared with
48,150 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 16,650 running
bales in 1995.

Dry Edible Beans: Production of dry edible beans is forecast at 29.2 million
cwt for 1997, up 7 percent from a year earlier, but down
5 percent from two years ago. Production is expected to be at or above 1996
levels in all states except Nebraska and North Dakota. Planted area is
estimated at 1.91 million acres, 6 percent above 1996, but 8 percent below 1995.
In the June 1997 Acreage report, U.S. planted and harvested acreages were
estimated at 1.90 and 1.81 million acres, respectively. Area for harvest on
August 1 is estimated at 1.75 million acres, up 2 percent from 1996, but

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-9 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

State :

1,000 Acres

--- 1,000 Bushels

AL 1/ : 80 110 44.0 35.0 35.0 3,520 3,850
AZ 1/ : 14 9 95.0 85.0 85.0 1,330 765
AR 1/ : 1,240 790 54.0 45.0 45.0 66,960 35,550
CA 1/ : 550 380 69.0 75.0 75.0 37,950 28,500
co 7 2,200 2,850 32.0 33.0 33.0 70,400 94,050
DE if 3 78 77 53.0 55.0 55.0 4,134 4,235
FL 1/ 2 10 is 38.0 39.0 39.0 380 585
GA 1/ z 350 360 48.0 44.0 44.0 16,800 15,840
ID : 860 870 80.0 78.0 80.0 68,800 69,600
IL : 1,100 1,150 38.0 60.0 60.0 41,800 69,000
IN 3 720 640 38.0 54.0 57.0 27,360 36,480
TA 1/ : 45 25 35.0 38.0 38.0 1,575 950
KS : 8,800 10,700 29.0 42.0 46.0 255,200 492,200
KY : 530 500 53.0 52.0 55.0 28,090 27,500
LA 1/ : 130 145 43.0 38.0 38.0 5,590 5,510
MD 1/ i 227 215 52.0 60.0 60.0 11,804 12,900
MI 2 630 540 38.0 54.0 61.0 23,940 32,940
MN 1/ z 32 50 36.0 35.0 35.0 1,152 1,750
MS 1/ : 230 1906 49.0 42.0 42.0 11,270 7,980
MO : 1,250 1,040 39.0 53.0 57.0 48,750 59,280
MT : 1,980 1,500 32.0 37.0 37.0 63,360 55,500
NE : 2,100 1,900 35.0 35.0 37.0 73,500 70,300
Nv 1/ : 9 11 100.0 100.0 100.0 900 1,100
NJ 1/ 2 38 34 46.0 44.0 44.0 1,748 1,496
NM 1/ : 110 300 37.0 34.0 34.0 4,070 10,200
NY 1/ : 150 135 43.0 52.0 52.0 6,450 7,020
NC : 590 670 44.0 52.0 52.0 25,960 34,840
ND i/ 3 75, 38 30.0 26.0 26.0 2,250 988
OH : 1,330 1,060 39.0 57.0 62.0 51,870 65,720
OK : 4,900 5,400 19.0 32.0 33.0 93,100 178,200
OR : 850 840 72.0 67.0 70.0 61,200 58,800
PA 1/ : 190 175 48.0 52.0 52.0 9,120 9,100
se 1/ : 270 305 45.0 50.0 50.0 12,150 15,250
sD : 1,580 1,150 35.0 33.0 31.0 55,300 35,650
TN 1/ 3 400 370 44.0 43.0 43.0 17,600 15,910
TX > 2,900 4,100 26.0 29.0 29.0 75,400 “118,900
UT 1/ : 160 160 38.0 45.0 45.0 6,080 7,200
VA 1/ : 275 255 53.0 60.0 60.0 14,575 15,300
WA : 2,350 2,150 70.0 63.0 65.0 164,500 139,750
wy 1/ 3 ail 9 45.0 45.0 45.0 495 405
WI 1/ : 125 135 43.0 52.0 52.0 5,375 7,020
wy 1/ 3 240 230 26.0 32.0 32.0 6,240 7,360
us : 39,709 41,583 37.2 42.9 44.6 1,478,048 1,855,474

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-15 NASS, USDA


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with
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To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-21 NASS, USDA


1,000 Bushels

1995 : 825,042 455,568
1996 : 762,402 422,019
1,112,228 469,624

Production by Class,
and Forecasted August 1,

264,043
293,627
273,622

Hard
Red

475,046
626,753
527,665

United States,

1997 1/

102,280
115,840
90,155

1995-1996

2,182,591
2,281,763
2,530,534

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing States.
previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast

season.

Peanuts:

and United States

Area Harvested

Area Harvested, Yield,
1995-96 and Forecasted August 1

Unless unusual situations dictate,

and Production by State
1997 1/

Production

the

1,000 Acres

AL 191.0 189.0
FL 82.0 82.0
GA 533.0 518.0
NM 16.5 17.5
NC 125.0 130.0
OK 81.0 83.0
sc 10.5 10.0
TX : 265.0 295.0
VA 76.0 74.0

1,380.0 1,398.5

Pounds
2,355 2,300
2,880 3,100
2,690 2,800
2,300 2,450
2,940 2,850
2,410 2,500
3,100 2,900
2,600 2,750
2,885 2,700
2,653 2,717

483,360
193,590
1,414,880
43,000
347,040
201,880
30,800
540,000
206,925

3,461,475

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Crop Production
August 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

1,000 Pounds --

449,805
236,160
1,433,770
37,950
367,500
195,210
32,550
689,000
219,260

3,661,205

434,700
254,200
2,450,400
42,875
370,500
207,500
29,000
811,250
199,800

3,800,225



Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

1,000 Acres

corn H 79,487 80,227 73,147 74,049
Sorghum : 13,188 10,268 11,901 9,512
Oats : 4,661 5,264 2,687 3,222
Barley : 7,174 6,769 6,787 6,397
All Wheat ' 75,639 70,767 62,850 63,495

Winter H 51,983 48,342 39,709 41,583

Durum 3 3,620 3,270 3,546 3,208

Other Spring : 20,036 19,155 19,595 18,704
Rice : 2,819.0 3,065.0 2,799.0 3,037.0
Soybeans 2 64,205 70,850 63,409 69,816
Peanuts : 1,401.5 1,418.0 1,380.0 1,398.5
All Cotton > 14,633.5 13,905.0 12,868.1 13,409.5

Upland : 14,375.5 13,655.0 12,612.2 13,160.5

Amer-Pima z 258.0 250.0 255.9 249.0
Cottonseed 2
All Hay 3 61,029 60,807

Alfalfa 3 24,291 23,556

All Other : 36,738 37,251
Dry Edible Beans 3 1,813.0 1,913.6 1,717.7 1,750.1
Tobacco : 732.7 794.9
Sugarbeets : 1,368.4 1,464.8 1,323.3 1,438.5
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed 3 888.9 895.0
Hops : 44.2 44.0
Coffee (HI) 3 S.7
Ginger Root (HI) 0.2 0.3

ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97
(Domestic Units)

1996 1997 i/ 1996 1997 1/

: 1,000 Acres

Rye z 1,467 1,443 347 359
Sunflower : 2,556 2,920 2,499 2,807
Flaxseed : 36 152 392 146
Potatoes 3
Winter : 14.5 15.6 14.5 15.4
Spring : 93.4 87.7 90.0 86.1
Summer : 77.9 68.0 74.7 65.1
Fall 2 1,268.9 1,198.6 1,245.6 1,181.5
Total 1,454.7 1,369.9 1,424.8 1,348.1

Sweet Potatoes 89.1 87.8 84.8 84.7

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-3 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM PALMER)
August 2, 1997 UPDATED BIWEEKLY
‘o
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wageecte (OD)
J) i -~
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NQAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY pases on prairinery reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index),

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-2 NASS, USDA


All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Area Harvested : yield

--- Tons ---

AL 730 750 2.40 2.40
AZ 19 35 3.50 3.50
AR 1,125 1,150 2.00 2.20
cA 510 520 2.80 2.90
co : 580 620 1.80 1.85
cT 65 50 1.90 1.60
DE 8 8 4.00 2.70
FL 240 230 2.60 3.00
GA 600 600 2.80 3.50
ID 280 300 2.00 2.10
IL : 400 420 2.20 2.30
IN 300 325 2.20 2.70
IA 500 450 2.00 2.20
KS 1,700 1,750 2.10 1.80
KY : 2,100 2,100 2.20 2.20
LA 3 310 330 2.70 2.70
ME 175 150 1.75 1.80
MD 3 160 160 2.60 2.20
MA 80 85 2.00 1.80
MI 350 350 2.20 2.20
MN 5 750 1,000 1.90 2.30
MS : 800 750 2.50 2.40
MO : 3,200 3,000 1.75 1.95
MT 2 900 850 1.50 1.60
NE > 1,850 1,850 1.30 1.25
NV : 250 250 1.70 1.70
NH 2 55 45 1.70 1.60
NJ 95 100 1.90 1.80
NM : 100 100 2.00 1.90
NY 870 890 2.00 2.00
NC 2 525 515 2.10 2.20
ND : 1,200 1,100 1.40 1.00
OH 500 650 2.60 2.70
OK 2,300 2,230 1.60 1.60
OR 2 610 615 2.00 2.20
PA > 1,130 1,130 2.00 1.50
RI : 6 8 2.50 2.00
sc : 280 300 2.00 2.80
sD : 1,800 1,800 1.50 1.40
TN : 1,750 1,650 2.10 2.20
TX : 4,200 4,700 1.70 2.60
UT : 160 155 2.10 2.20
vT : 185 175 2.00 1.60
VA > 1,150 1,120 2.20 1.80
WA : 310 300 2.70 3.00
wv : 530 525 1.80 1.90
wi 2 400 400 2.00 2.10
wy 3 600 660 1.20 1.40
us : 36,738 37,251 1.91 2.04
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-26 NASS, USDA


All wheat production is placed at 2.53 billion bushels, up 4 percent from the
last forecast and 11 percent more than in 1996. The U.S. yield is now forecast
at 39.9 bushels per acre. This is up 1.6 bushels per acre from last month to a
new record high.

The final winter wheat production forecast is 1.86 billion bushels, up 4 percent
from last month and 26 percent higher than 1996. The U.S. yield is forecast at
a record high 44.6 bushels per acre. This is up 1.8 bushels from July 1. Grain
area was not changed from last month.

Hard Red Winter wheat production is up 5 percent from July due to higher yields
in Kansas, Oklahoma and Nebraska. The Kansas yield is a new record high as is
the Kansas production. Soft Red Winter, at 470 million bushels, is also up from
a month ago and is the most since 1990. Illinois and Missouri growers have
harvested record high yields. The Ohio average equals the current record.
Michigan's yield is also a new record. White Winter production is up from last
month due to improved yield prospects in all three Pacific Northwest States.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 90.2 million bushels, up 11 percent from
last month, but still well below last year. August 1 conditions in the northern
Durum states have increased yield expectations in the Dakotas and Montana. The
U.S.yield is now forecast at 28.1 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels per acre from
duly 1.

Other spring wheat production is forecast at 585 million bushels, up 3 percent
from a month ago. Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at
31.3 bushels per acre. This is 0.9 bushels per acre better than July 1. There
were no area changes. Hard Red Spring production is up 3 percent from July at
528 million bushels. White Spring production is up 1 percent.

SS -_ A ——
This report was approved on August 12, 1997, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural
Statistics Board.

high) LoL b— Vayederse- tv Ay

T Acting Aecretary of “ =
Agriculture Agricultural Statist/cs Board
Keith J. Collins Acting Chairperson
Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-2 NASS, USDA


Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, and WA) is forecast at
6.71 billion pounds, down 3 percent from 1996. Increases in Oregon and Colorado
were more than offset by decreases in all other Western States except California
where the crop is expected to equal that of last year. Relatively cool
temperatures throughout most of the growing season in California have allowed
fruit to size well, with some shippers reporting an average of two sizes larger
than last year. Most varieties in California are being harvested as much as two
weeks earlier than normal. Early season freezes in Colorado damaged fruit in
some areas, but this natural thinning has provided for large fruit size. Crop
conditions in Oregon have been generally favorable, with no adverse weather that
would greatly affect the crop.

The Central States (AR, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, and WI) expect
1.45 billion pounds of apple production, up 37 percent from last year. Michigan
and Missouri are the major contributors to the increase, with production gains
from last year of 45 and 34 percent, respectively. Michigan apples had a very
good fruit set, but sizing is being hampered by dry conditions. The crop is
about a week behind normal development. The Missouri forecast indicates the
largest production since 1993, but the forecast could be reduced if the current
moisture shortage continues.

In the Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA,
and WV), production is placed at 2.49 billion pounds, up 5 percent from 1996 for
comparable States. Cooler than normal spring temperatures and poor pollination
weather are expected to reduce full crop potential. The largest increases in
production from 1996 are projected for South Carolina, with an increase of

57 percent; Pennsylvania, up 22 percent; and Georgia, up 18 percent.

Pears: All pear production for 1997 is forecast at 1.02 million tons,

24 percent above 1996 and 8 percent above 1995, but 3 percent below
1994's record high 1.05 million tons. Pear production, other than Bartletts, in
the three Pacific Coast States is expected to total 440,000 tons, surpassing the
previous record of 423,000 tons set in 1994 by 4 percent.

Bartlett pear production is forecast at 555,000 tons in California, Oregon and
Washington, down 10,000 tons from the June forecast, but up 118,000 tons from
1996. California and Oregon production levels were unchanged from June, at
300,000 and 75,000 tons, respectively. Cooler weather in Washington was
responsible for the decline from June. However, at 180,000 tons, Washington
will still be 75,000 tons above its low 1996 level.

In California, picking of Bartlett pears is well underway in all areas except

Solano County, where it will begin soon. The excellent spring and early summer
weather accelerated maturity, resulting in approximately 60 percent of the crop
being picked by August 1 with good quality. A full crop is expected in Oregon.

Other pear production in Oregon, at 180,000 tons, broke the previous record of
175,000 tons set in 1994, and production is the second highest on record for
Washington. California’s total crop is unchanged from 1996, at 30,000 tons,
while Oregon's, at 180,000 tons, is up 50,000 tons, and Washington's, at
230,000 tons, is up 35,000 tons. Asian pear picking is underway in California,
with good quality reported.

All pear production in New York, at 11,500 tons, is at the lowest level in over
20 years, when growers produced 8,000 tons in 1976. Cool, damp weather in May
and June destroyed buds and flowers in major producing counties, and hail
damaged the crop in some areas. In Colorado, early season frosts damaged some
fruit, but this natural thinning resulted in large fruit size. The Pennsylvania
and Connecticut crops are in good condition despite the unseasonably cool spring
weather. In Michigan, the crop experienced a light bloom, poor pollination, and
hail damage. In Utah, problems with frost and rain during pollination led to
the low expected harvest.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-14 NASS, USDA


Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

1995 : 1996 : 1997

AZ : 11.0 100.0 45.0
AR z 10.0 7.0 10.0
CA 3 850.0 900.0 900.0
co 3 55.0 35.0 50.0
cT : 20.5 20.0 20.0
DE 2/ : 15.0 15.0

GA : 30.0 22.0 26.0
ID : 80.0 180.0 130.0
IL 3 80.0 53.0 89.0
IN : 75.0 48.0 56.0
IA : 10.0 9.5 11.9
KS 3 6.5 2.0 7.0
KY + 17.0 15.0 12.0
ME 3 65.0 67.0 64.0
MD 3 35.0 29.0 26.0
MA $ 65.0 58.0 58.0
MI : 1,220.0 725.0 1,050.0
MN : 22.0 21.0 22.0
MO : 38.0 32.0 43.0
NH : 44.0 38.0 41.0
No t 75.0 60.0 65.0
NM 2/ : 3.0 5.0

NY : 1,110.0 1,030.0 1,080.0
NC 3 270.0 200.0 170.0
OH : 120.0 90.0 _ 75.0
OR : 140.0 139.0 155.0
PA : 500.0 391.0 475.0
RI : 4.5 6.0 6.0
sc : 60.0 35.0 55.0
TN 3 16.0 12.0 11.0
uT 3 20.0 48.0 33.0
vT : 45.0 37.5 35.0
VA : 400.0 275.0 250.0
WA : 4,850.0 5,500.0 5,400.0
WV : 165.0 105.0 115.0
Wl : 57.5 46.0 63.0

10,585.0 10,355.0 10,648.9

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.
2/ Forecast discontinued for 1997.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-34 NASS, USDA


Hard Red Winter Objective Yield head count forecasts remained at record highs in
Oklahoma and Texas, and are well above average in Kansas. Harvest is complete
in these three States. Colorado and Nebraska’s winter wheat harvests are nearly
done. Montana is moving along rapidly, but the South Dakota harvest trails
normal progress. There heavy rains have caused lodging in of the fields.

Idaho and Oregon growers now expect even higher yields, with the Idaho number
equaling last year’s record mark. Washington’s Objective Yield Survey head
count forecast is about the same as last month. Harvest progress trails average
in all three States.

Durum Wheat: The North Dakota Durum crop is developing ahead of both last year
and the 5-year average. Combining was just underway as of

August 3. Some hail damage was reported in the northwest. Objective yield

survey head counts are the lowest since 1989. July rains improved yield

prospects in Montana’s Durum production region.

Other Spring Wheat: Wet weather is slowing the South Dakota harvest. Except
for a portion of the dryland crop, all of Washington’s
spring wheat is rated in good to excellent condition. Harvest progress trails
1996 and is well behind average. As of late July, North Dakota Hard Red Spring
wheat was developing ahead of last year and the average. Disease and weed
pressures do exist.
Objective Yield survey data shows plant populations at a record high level in
Minnesota. The Montana and North Dakota counts are average.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.80 billion pounds, up 4 percent from last
year's crop and 10 percent above 1995. Area for harvest is expected
to total 1.40 million acres, down slightly from the June “Acreage” report, but
up 1 percent from 1996. The acreage change resulted from a reduction in South
Carolina and Virginia. Peanut plantings, at 1.42 million acres, were reduced
from the June 1 forecast by 3,500 acres. Yields are expected to average
2,717 pounds, 64 pounds above last year and if realized, the highest yield since
1985.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.17 billion pounds, up 1 percent from last
year's level. Expected acreage for harvest, at 799,000 acres, is 2 percent
below the previous year. Yields in the four-State area are expected to average
2,714 pounds per acre, 78 pounds above 1996. Hurricane Danny brought welcomed
rains to southwestern Alabama. As of August 3, peanut development in Alabama
was on schedule with over half the crop rated in good-to-excellent condition.
In Georgia, the late spring planting set the peanut crop far behind schedule,
however warm July temperatures and adequate moisture pushed growth and improved
yield prospects. August conditions will prove crucial to this year’s crop.

The peanut crops in Florida and South Carolina are in mostly good-to-excellent
condition. If realized, Florida’s producers will enjoy the highest yields
since 1984.

The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 570 million pounds, down
3 percent from 1996. Acreage for harvest is up 1 percent from the previous
year. Yield is forecast at 2,796 pounds, down 123 pounds from last year, but
418 above 1995. July rainfall improved the Virginia-North Carolina peanut crop
significantly, although the crop remains one-to-two weeks behind normal.

Southwest crop production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to
total 1.06 billion pounds, up 15 percent from last year's 922 million pounds.
The region's acreage for harvest, at 396 million acres, is 9 percent above the
1996 level. Yields are expected to average 2,684 pounds, 140 pounds per acre
above 1996. Crop development and conditions in the Southwest were generally
above average. On August 3, 76 percent of the Texas crop was rated in

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-7 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and
United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Area Harvested Yield Production

State:

1,000 Pounds -

cT : 2,260 2,450 1,679 1,653 3,524 3,795 4,051.

FL 3 7,500 7,700 2,680 2,500 17,676 20,100 19,250
GA : 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,050 84,000 113,620 90,200
IN 3 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,000 13,601 14,972 17,800
KY : 195,700 221,100 2,021 1,880 328,581 395,542 415,610
MD : 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 11,475 10,000 12,000
MA : 800 1,100 1,515 1,648 918 1,212 1,813
MO : 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 5,468 6,021 6,355
NC : 287,800 314,000 2,035 2,175 484,599 585,542 682,900
OH : 8,000 9,500 1,580 1,940 15,015 12,640 18,430
PA 3 7,800 7,600 1,983 1,891 15,685 15,464 14,370
sc > 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 105,000 117,810 121,500
TN : 54,560 57,670 2,014 1,858 92,907 109,888 107,127
VA : 48,370 51,270 2,141 2,065 81,269 103,543 105,898
WV 2 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,600 2,040 3,240
WI : 2,300 2,750 1,774 2,099 6,220 5,145 5,773
us 732,690 794,940 2,071 2,046 1,268,538 1,517,334 1,626,317
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1997 A-29 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

1996 : 1997

1,000 Acres Bushels -- 1,000 Bushels --

AZ 1/ 3 54 69 105.0 109.0 109.0 5,670 7,521
CA Hy 220 180 60.0 65.0 65.0 13,200 11,700
co : 92 90 108.0 120.0 115.0 9,936 10,350
DE i/ : 23 35 68.0 739.0 79.0 1,564 2,765
ID 3 730 760 73.0 71.0 74.0 53,290 56,240
KS : a. 9 33.0 47.0 45.0 363 405
KY 1/ i 20 14 74.0 70.0 70.0 1,480 980
MD 2 49 50 61.0 85.0 77.0 2,989 3,850
MI 1/ : 25 22 48.0 57.0 57.0 1,200 1,254
MN 2 520 570 64.0 61.0 57.0 33,280 32,490
MT 7 1,200 1,200 43.0 52.0 54.0 51,600 64,800
NE 1/ 3 17 8 53.0 56.0 56.0 901 448
NV 1/ : 5 5 75.0 90.0 90.0 375 450
NJ 1/ : 3 4 60.0 75.0 75.0 180 300
NC 1/ : 20 20 65.0 71.0 71.0 1,300 1,420
ND : 2,600 2,200 55.0 45.0 47.0 143,000 103,400
OK 1/ : 3 8 23.0 39.0 39.0 69 312
OR 3 150 120 64.0 69.0 69.0 9,600 8,280
PA : 75 75 67.0 67.0 69.0 5,025 5,175
sc 1/ : 4 3 50.0 60.0 60.0 200 180
sD 3 145 115 44.0 44.0 44.0 6,380 5,060
TX 1/ : a1 5 34.0 49.0 49.0 374 245
oT : 100 95 82.0 90.0 90.0 8,200 8,550
VA : 75 65 68.0 77.0 80.0 5,100 5,200
WA : 440 490 62.0 66.0 70.0 27,280 34,300
Wr H 75, 65 53.0 60.0 60.0 3,975 3,900
0 87.0 10,320 10,440

WY : 120 120 86.0 87.

6,787 6,397 58.5 58.1 59.4 396,851 380,015

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-13 NASS, USDA



Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 6.4 million pounds for the

1996-97 season, up 19 percent from the previous season and the largest
harvest since the 1966-67 crop of 8.04 million pounds. Production increased on
the islands of Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai. Production on the island of
Hawaii decreased, however, due to a dry spring which caused an unusually high
number of dried or underdeveloped coffee fruit.

Grapes: U.S. production is forecast at 6.64 million tons, up 20 percent from

1996 and 12 percent above 1995. If realized, this would be the largest
crop on record. The previous record was 1982's production of 6.56 million tons.
Larger crops are forecast in California, Oregon, and Washington, while Arizona,
Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania expect smaller crops.

California’s all grape production is forecast at 6.00 million tons, 20 percent
above last year, and 15 percent above 1995. This is the second largest
production on record, exceeded by the 6.08 million tons in 1982. Raisin type
varieties, at 2.60 million tons, are up 8 percent from last month and up

19 percent from last year. Compared with last year, the objective measurement
survey indicated higher bunch counts with larger width, thickness, and length.
Thompson seedless grapes are currently being picked for fresh use in the San
Joaquin Valley, and maturity is well ahead of normal. Picking for raisins will
begin in mid-August.

Table type grape production is forecast at 700,000 tons, unchanged from last
month, but up 18 percent from a year ago. Flame seedless and Perlette varieties
are currently being picked in the San Joaquin Valley. Good quality is reported.

Wine type varieties are expected to produce 2.70 million tons, an increase of
21 percent over last year. The crop is maturing well, with growers reporting
good quality. Harvest is underway in the San Joaquin Valley.

Grape production in New York is forecast at 155,000 tons, down 18 percent from
last year. Cool weather during the early summer slowed crop development by 1 to
2 weeks. Limited rainfall also hampered production in some areas. Washington’s
forecast, at 299,000 tons, is more than double last year’s freeze damaged crop,
but is 8 percent below 1995. Growing conditions improved as the season
progressed. Some vineyards are thinning their grapes. The crop in Michigan is
forecast at 60,000 tons, down 8 percent from 1996. Record low temperatures in
May, followed by dry conditions during the summer, hampered crop progress.
Pennsylvania is forecast at 65,000 tons, down 22 percent from last year. Crop
conditions were unfavorable due to a cold, wet spring, which slowed fruit
maturity.

Ginger Root: Hawaii ginger root production for the 1996-97 season is estimated
at 12.1 million pounds, up 29 percent from the previous season.
Increased harvested acreage and improved cultural practices were responsible for
the increase in production. Harvested acreage totaled 275 acres, up 38 percent
from last season. Yields averaged 44,000 pounds per harvested acre, down
6 percent from the previous season. Various factors contributed to the lower
yields, including disease, late planting, and a brief dry spell in late 1996.
The continued efforts of farmers to use sanitary measures and disease-free seed
have lessened the impact of disease for the second straight year. Overall
losses to various types of bacterial disease were relatively light.

Florida Citrus: Groves in all areas of Florida's citrus belt were maintained in
very good to excellent condition throughout July with the help
of rains and thunderstorms. Most of the lakes, ponds, and streams used by the
citrus growers have started to refill. The near tropical weather during July
produced an abundance of new growth on trees of all ages. However, those groves

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-15 NASS, USDA


Reliability of August 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between July 24 and August 2 to gather information on
expected yield as of August 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat, corn,
soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually
account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Farm operators were
interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and to seek permission to
randomly locate two sample plots in selected fields (corn, cotton, and
soybeans). The items counted within the selected plots depend on the crop and
the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along
with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of
heads, ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar
data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The five-year
average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are re-
visited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed.
After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled
to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 27,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
August 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The August 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead

a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a balance
sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports, processing,
feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships
warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are
subject to revision August 1 if conditions altered the planting intentions since
the mid-year survey. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production
forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area
has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the August 1

production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error", a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
August 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage
of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
1977-1996 20-year period is computed then the square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made
concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final
end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are
not different from those influencing recent years.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 B-17 NASS, USDA


Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

1996 : 1997

1,000 Acres 1,000 Bushels

AZ 1/ 3 164 89 30.0 93.0 93.0 14,760 8,277
cA 1/ : 138 130 100.0 95.0 95.0 13,800 12,350
MN : 10 5 43.0 38.0 36.0 430 180
MT 3 270 310 25.0 21.0 25.0 6,750 7,750
ND : 2,940 2,650 27.0 20.0 23.0 79,380 60,950
sD : 24 24 30.0 25.0 27.0 720 648
us 3,546 3,208 32.7 25.2 28.1 115,840- 90,155

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted August 1, 1997

Yield Production

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres Bushels -- 1,000 Bushels --
co l/ : 68 62 75.0 80.0 80.0 5,100 4,960
ID : 700 560 72.0 73.0 73.0 50,400 40,880
MN + 2,400 2,350 42.0 38.0 35.0 100,800 82,250
MT 4,100 4,200 26.0 28.0 28.0 106,600 117,600
NV 1/ 10 6 75.0 90.0 90.0 750 540
ND 9,500 8,500 33.0 25.0 27.0 313,500 229,500
OR 1/ 105 125 61.0 62.0 62.0 6,405 7,750
sD : 2,250 2,400 37.0 30.0 32.0 83,250 76,800
uT 1/ 28 29 60.0 50.0 50.0 1,680 1,450
WA 395 445 46.0 48.0 50.0 18,170 22,250
WI 1/ 10 7 35.0 35.0 35.0 350 245
wy i/ 29 20 30.0 34.0 34.0 870 680

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1997 A-16 NASS, USDA