Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Type, State,
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted November 1, 1995

Area Harvested : Yield Production 1/

and: : : : 1995 : :
State : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 :------------------- : 1994: «1995

455.0 585.0 766 480 361 726.0 440.0
AZ 312.0 364.0 1.203 1,081 1,055 782.0 800.0
AR 970.0 1,100.0 877 648 624 1,772.0 1,430.0
CA : 1,095.0 1,175.0 1,191 1.083 1,042 2,717.0 2,550.0
FL 3/ 68.0 109.0 735 691 691 104.1 157.0
875.0 1,490.0 843 644 644 1,537.0 2,000.0

KS 3/ 1.2 2.0 480 408 408 1.2 1.7
LA 890.0 1,065.0 815 608 608 1,512.0 1,350.0
MS 1,270.0 1.460.0 806 602 605 2,132.0 1,840.0
MO 345.0 445.0 856 647 577 615.0 535.0
NM 50.0 51.0 720 762 762 75.0 81.0
NC 485.0 780.0 820 535 554 829.0 900.0
OK 340.0 325.0 349 295 295 247.0 200.0
sc 223.0 335.0 846 645 645 393.0 450.0
TN 585.0 660.0 726 570 575 885.0 790.0
as : 5,150.0 5,700.0 458 408 404 4,915.0 4,800.0
VA 3/ 41.7 107.0 944 700 700 82.0 156.0
US 213,155.9 15.753.0 705 574 563 19,324.3  18,480.7

Amer-Pima :
AZ : 47.9 47.5 806 788 748 80.4 74.0
CA : 80.8 100.0 1,098 1,032 984 184.8 205.0
NM : 10.7 15.0 875 800 736 19.5 23.0
1TM : 27.0 33.0 942 880 800 §3.0 55.0
US 166.4 195.5 974 930 877 337.7 357.0

All
AL 455.0 585.0 766 480 361 726.0 440.0
AZ 359.9 411.5 1,150 1,047 1,019 862.4 874.0
AR 970.0 1,100.0 877 648 624 1,772.0 1,430.0
CA 1,175.8 1,275.0 1,185 1,079 1,037 2,901.8 2,755.0
FL 3/ 68.0 109.0 735 691 691 104.1 157.0
GA 875.0 1,490.0 843 644 644 1,537.0 2,000.0
KS 3/ 1.2 2.0 480 408 408 1.2 1.7
LA 890.0 1.065.0 815 608 608 1,512.0 1.350.0
MS 1,270.0 1,460.0 806 602 605 2,132.0 1,840.0
MO 345.0 445.0 856 647 577 615.0 535.0
NM 60.7 66.0 747 771 756 94.5 104.0
NC 485.0 780.0 820 535 554 829.0 900.0
OK 340.0 325.0 349 295 295 247.0 200.0
Sc 223.0 335.0 846 645 645 393.0 450.0
TN 585.0 660.0 726 570 575 885.0 790.0
TX : §,177.0 5.733.0 461 411 406 4,968.0 4,855.0
VA 3/ 41.7 107.0 944 700 700 82.0 156.0
US 13,322.3 15,948.5 708 579 567 19, 662.0 18,837.7

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.

2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1995 A-20 NASS, USDA


track. On October 31, digging and combining was over 90 percent completed in
Alabama, Florida, and Georgia.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 541 million pounds, unchanged
from last month and 30 percent below last year. Yield per acre, at

2.324 pounds, is 872 pounds below the 1994 exceptional average. Harvest in
Virginia neared completion by the end of October while the North Carolina
harvest was behind last year and normal at 93 percent dug and 77 percent
threshed.

The Southwest peanut crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is forecast at

841 million pounds. down 9 percent from last month and 8 percent below last
year. Yields are expected to average 2,155 pounds per acre, down 96 pounds from
the 1994 average of 2,251. Dry weather in New Mexico allowed harvest to advance
quickly, with digging nearly 95 percent complete by the end of the month. Crop
yields and quality suffered due mainly to lack of adequate moisture. In
Oklahoma, the peanut crop was 68 percent harvested, 8 points ahead of average.
Harvest was very active aS producers moved quickly to salvage an immature crop
before a hard freeze. On October 31, 21 percent of the crop was in poor-to-
very-poor condition. Harvest gained momentum in Texas with 45 percent of the
acreage dug. Yields and grades are below average in many Central and South
Central Texas fields.

Cotton: Minor acreage adjustments led to a slight upward revision of upland
cotton planted to 16.6 million acres. This level is 23 percent above

1994. Harvested acreage also rose slightly to 15.8 million acres, up 20 percent

from last year. American-Pima planted totaled 199,000 acres and harvested

amounted to 195,500 acres. Compared with 1994, the area planted increased

18 percent while harvested acres climbed 17 percent.

Defoliation and harvest began during the month in West Texas. Harvest neared
completion in the Blacklands and Central Texas. Heavy rainfall and below normal
temperatures in early October diminished prospects in the Plains and Cross
Timbers. Crop condition towards the end of October showed 80 percent of the
cotton in fair to good condition. The amount harvested, at 44 percent, was only
3 points ahead of the 5-year average. Objective yield data continue to record
the lowest large boll counts and boll weights since 1985.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated cotton mostly in fair to good condition in late October. Louisiana cotton
is the exception with 54 percent rated as very poor to poor. One-third of the
Mississippi acreage and 23 percent in Arkansas was rated very poor to poor.
Harvest in all States exceeded the 5-year average. In Louisiana, 98 percent of
the crop was harvested at the end of October and Mississippi producers were

94 percent complete. Large boll counts rank ninth in Arkansas, but are the
lowest in Louisiana and Mississippi since 1985. Boll weights in all three
States rank ninth among the past 10 years.

Thirty percent of Arizona's cotton was in good to excellent condition in late
October, but harvest was nearly one-fourth behind normal, at 43 percent. In
early October, hail, high winds, and heavy rain reduced potential on some
Arizona acreage. In California, 65 percent of the crop rated good to excellent,
with 20 percent harvested, 40 percent behind normal. Defoliants were applied in
the San Joaquin Valley while the Desert harvest approached completion.

Objective yield survey data place Arizona large boll counts ninth in the past
10 years and boll weights lowest during the same period. California large bo?)
counts are the lowest since 1985 and boll weights are the ninth lowest since
then.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-7 NASS, USDA


October Weather Summary: Except for Hurricane Opal’s Florida landfall on

October 4 and her subsequent interaction with a
low-pressure system crossing the Northern States, the first half of October
featured rather tranquil autumn weather. At mid-month, however, the first in a
series of storms emerged from the Pacific Northwest and traversed the upper
Midwest, drawing cool, dry air southward. As a result, dryness across the
central and southern Plains became serious by month's end as storms continued to
pass to the north. In contrast, the East saw long-term drought virtually
eliminated due to heavy rain from the remnants of Opal and the mid to late-month
passage of three moisture-laden cold fronts.

In the East, October-record totals reached 11.90 inches (451 percent of normal)
in Birmingham, AL and 8.01 inches (278% of normal) in Wilmington, DE. Monthly
totals topped 10 inches in Florida at Melbourne and West Palm Beach, in part due
to a mid-month inundation that deposited up to 20 inches in 48 hours near the
latter location. Wetness was also observed near the prevailing storm track
through the Great Lakes States, where October rainfall records were established
in Sault Sainte Marie, MI (6.55 inches) and Mansfield, OH (6.45 inches).

Farther west, the month's biggest snowstorm unfolded on October 22-23. resulting
in totals of 13.7 inches in Lander, WY and 8.6 inches in Huron, SO. As cold air
arrived at month's end, additional light snow fell across the North Central
States, pushing monthly totals to 10.7 inches in Huron (an October record) and
12.4 inches in Valentine, NE. Qn October 31, the season’s first measurable snow
fell on Alpena. MI (0.2 inches), LaCrosse, WI (0.5 inches), and Fargo, ND

(1.0 inch).

The cold outbreak at month's end reinforced monthly temperatures that averaged
2 to 4 degrees F below normal from the Cascades to the northern Plains,
southward into western Oklahoma. On October 31. the coldest air of the season-
to-date cloaked winter wheat areas of the Northwest, where lows included

16 degrees F in Spokane, WA and 2 degrees F in Great Falls, MT (with a 2-inch
snow cover). In contrast, October-record warmth dotted the Eastern Seaboard,
where monthly temperatures averaged 63.1 degrees F in Atlantic City (downtown).
NJ and 81.7 degrees F in Miami, FL. Temperatures also averaged above normal in
the Southwest, including brief episodes of 100-degree heat. Maxima reached

101 degrees F at the Los Angeles Civic Center on October 2 and 100 degrees F in
Phoenix, AZ on October 11 and 12.

From California to the middle Mississippi Valley, a common weather element was
the infrequency of precipitation. The wet season got off to a Slow start in
northern California, where Eureka’s monthly total of 0.53 inches was 20% of
normal. In the Great Basin, monthly totals in Nevada were as low aS zero in
Reno and a trace in Elko. Equally unimpressive amounts fell on the central and
southern Plains, stressing rain-fed winter wheat. October totals in Colorado
included a trace in Pueblo and 0.92 inches (2% of normal) in Colorado Springs:
and in Kansas were aS low as 0.08 inches (6% of normal) in Dodge City,

0.21 inches (7% of normal) in Topeka, and 0.28 inches (13% of normal) in
Wichita. Texas hardly fared better. with monthly rainfall of 0.23 inches (7% of
normal) in San Antonio, 0.34 inches (20% of normal) in Midland. and 0.45 inches
(33% of normal) in Amarillo.

General Crop Comments: October started with heavy rains from Hurricane Opal
that saturated fields across the Gulf Coast and
Southeast, slowing cotton harvest. Hurricane Opal’s heavy precipitation and
high winds damaged open cotton bolls and lowered cotton condition in some
Southeastern States. Rain over the North-Central States slowed harvest
activity, but the precipitation provided much-needed moisture for small grains.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-3 . NASS, USDA


For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 2.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the current production forecast of 7.4 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 2.4 percent or approximately 177 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 4.2 percent or approximately 310 million bushels.

Also shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the November 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the November 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 93 million bushels, ranging from
1 million to 258 million bushels. The November 1 forecast has been below the
final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the November
1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the
final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts
: 10-year Record of
: Differences Between Forecast
and Final Estimate

Crop and po bevel 0 tienes eee eee eee eee ee ---------
Unit Percent: - Quantity :No. of Years
: :Percent: Quan

Feed Grains L/ Mt: 2.3 4.0 Bi: 3 0 8 6 (4
Corn for Grain Bu: 2.4 4.2 310 :: 93 1 258 5 5
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 4.7 8.1 38 :: 24 1 86 5 5
Rice Cwt: 2.8 4.8 8:: 2 0 12 8 2
Soybeans for : bt
Beans Bu: 6.8 4.9 107:: 31 13 66 6 4
Cotton Bates 2/: 3.5 6.0 1,130:: 367 14 824 6 4
Fall Potatoes Cwt : 2.3 4.0 7 1 16 10 0
1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats, and barley.
2/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1995 B-12 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted November 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production

1994: 1995

1,000 Acres ---- 1,000 Cwt ----
AR : 1,420 1,340 80,940 73.030
CA : 485 465 41,224 36,270
LA : 620 570 29.448 26,220
MS : 313 288 18,467 15,552
MO 1/ : 124 111 6,448 5,661
TX : 354 318 21,252 17,490
US 3,316 3,092 5.964 ‘5,710 5,635 197,779 174,223

1/ Yield estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted November 1, 1995

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All
1,000 Cwt
1993 : 103.064 51,873 1,173 156,110
1994 : 133,445 63,390 944 197,779
1995 1/ : 122,168 51,152 903 174,223

1/ Indicated November 1, 1995, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-14 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted November 1, 1995 1/

Area Harvested Yield Production
State :-----------+------------------+------ 2-2 +--+ 2-22 ee eee -- eee ee eee ee

1994 1995 1994 1995 1993 1994 1995

-- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ----- 0 ------- 1,000 Tons -------
CA : 141.0 114.0 29.0 27.0 3,536 4.089 3,078
co : 43.2 41.2 21.9 17.7 924 946 729
1D : 201.0 198.0 27.9 25.0 4,733 5,608 4,950
MI : 187.0 190.0 16.2 16.0 3,179 3,029 3.040
MN : 411.0 418.0 20.6 18.5 5,344 8,467 7,733
MT : 54.0 65.5 24.2 22.0 1,169 1.307 1,221
NE : 74.1 72.4 20.3 16.5 1,473 1.504 1,195
ND : 201.5 207.0 21.2 19.3 3,112 4,272 3,995
OH : 16.0 14.7 16.5 16.5 212 264 243
OR t 16.4 18.4 27.8 25.2 372 456 464
1X : 24.5 19.5 20.3 22.0 823 497 429
wy : 61.3 62.0 18.0 21.0 1,269 1,103 1,302
Oth

Sts 2/: 12.0 14.2 37.7 36.1 103 452 513

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest. except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA. Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production
by State and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted November 1, 1995

1994

1994

FL 444.0 445.0 33.6 34.0 15,152 14,937 15,130
HI : 69.3 50.0 77.4 85.0 5,606 5.364 4,250
LA : 380.0 395.0 24.4 25.0 8.904 9,272 9,875
TX : 43.5 42.3 31.2 33.2 1,439 1.356 1,404
US : 936.8 932.3 33.0 32.9 31,101 30.929 30,659
1/ Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1995 A-24 NASS, USDA


In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina), the crop was mostly in good condition in late October. Alabama
reported 48 percent of the crop in very poor to poor condition at the end of the
month, a decline of about 15 percent from mid-month. Heavy rain and high winds
from Hurricane Opal damaged some Georgia cotton, but the effects were less than
expected. Harvest was interrupted due to the storm, but by the end of the month
Alabama and Georgia were ahead of their 5-year average pace, at 81 percent and
65 percent harvested, respectively. The Carolina's were about 5 percent behind
their harvest average rate. with North Carolina at 50 percent and South Carolina
at 49 percent.

American-Pima production is forecast at 357,000 bales, down 4 percent from
October, but up 6 from 1994 output. Yield averaging about 877 pounds are
expected, down 97 pounds from last year. All States except Texas show a
decrease in production from the previous month. The largest production decrease
is tn California. 10,000 bales below October. Yield potential continued to
decline. Harvest remained behind normal in California as producers waited for
late bolls to open. Some fields will receive a second picking due to slow
maturing plants and current price levels. In Texas, harvest is complete in the
Winter Garden area and is beginning in the Trans-Pecos area.

All cotton ginnings totaled 8,453,900 running bales prior to November 1,
compared with 8,877,850 running bales ginned to the same date last year and
7.974.650 running bales in 1993.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1995 is forecast at 1.32 billion

Pounds, down 16 percent from 1994. Harvested acres are expected to be
674,280 acres, up fractionally from last year. Yields for 1995 are estimated to
average 1.962 pounds per acre, 396 pounds below the average for 1994.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 745 million pounds, up 2 percent from
the forecast of a month ago, but i¢ percent below a year ago. Higher yields and
an increase in forecasted acres for harvest in Florida increased total Fiue-
cured production. Flue-cured growers plan to harvest 385.200 acres. 7 percent
above last year. Flue-cured tobacco accounts for 57 percent of this year’s
total tobacco acreage.

Burley production is expected to total 490 million pounds, 20 percent below the
production of 1994. Yield is expected to average 1.989 pounds per acre.

311 pounds below the average for 1994. Burley tobacco growers expect to harvest
246.600 acres, 7 percent below last year’s. Kentucky. with 66 percent of the
1995 burley area to be harvested, is 7 percent below a year ago.

The tobacco harvest was concluded in the Southeastern region (Georgia, Kentucky.
South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia). slightly ahead of
normal. Burley stripping in Kentucky was 26 percent complete at the start of
November. The quality of stripped tobacco in Kentucky was mostly good to fair.
Delays in transplanting tobacco followed by cool. wet weather during the early
summer provided ideal conditions for the spread of disease. A heat wave in mid-
summer combined with dry weather Slowed the spread of blue mold, but the hot,
dry weather lowered condition ratings and depleted soil moisture supplies.
Fields affected by diseases suffered severe losses. The crop recovered somewhat
from the earlier problems in places but yields varied widely. Harvesting weather
was ideal during the end of October in the Ohio Valley and parts of the
Southeast. Growers were preparing early harvested tobacco for marketing in the
mid-Atlantic States.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-8 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested.
United States. 1994-95 (Domestic and Metric Units)

Area Pianted Area Harvested 1/

0a 0) on
1994 1995 2/ 1994 1995 2/
1,000 Acres
Oats : 6.639 6.336 4,010 2,959
Barley : 7.159 6.689 6.667 6,277
All Wheat : 70,349 69,074 61,770 60,899

Winter : 49,197 48.826 41,355 41,073

Ourum : 2,823 3.433 2,715 3,354

Other Spring : 18,329 16.815 17,700 16,472
Rye : 1,613 1,612 407 378
Sunflower : 3.567 3.608 3.430 3,484
Flaxseed : 178 213 171 206
All Hay : 58,744 60.228

Alfalfa : 24,222 24,639

All Other : 34,522 35.589
Dry Edible Beans : 2,025.8 2,049.7 1,845.2 1,907.8
Dry Edible Peas : 131.0 166.0 128.0 163.0
Austrian Winter :

Peas : 7.0 10.9 4.6 6.7
Lentils : 180.0 148.0 178.0 143.0
Potatoes :

Winter : 12.9 13.3 12.3 11.9

Spring : 91.6 88.6 90.4 86.8

Summer : 95.8 72.5 92.3 70.7
Sweetpotatoes : 86.1 87.0 82.8 83.6
Hops : 42.4 43.5

(Hectares)
Oats 2,686,740 2,564,120 1,622,810 1,197,480
Barley : 2,897,180 2,706,970 2.698.070 2,540,240
All Wheat > 28,.469.540 27,953,560 24,997,700 24,645,220

Winter : 19,909,530 19,759,390 16,735,950 16,621,830

Ourum > 1,142,440 1,389.300 1,098,730 1,357,330

Other Spring : 7,417,560 6,804,860 7,163,010 6,666,050
Rye : 652,760 652.360 164,710 152,970
Sunflower : 1,443,530 1,460,120 1,388,090 1,409,940
Flaxseed : 72,030 86,200 69.200 83,370
Al] Hay : 23,773,110 24,373,670

Alfalfa : 9,802,400 9,971,160

All Other : 13,970,710 14,402,510
Dry Edible Beans : 819,820 829.490 746.730 772,070
Dry Edible Peas : 53.010 67.180 51,800 65,960
Austrian Winter :

Peas : 2,830 4,410 1.860 2.710
Lentils : 72,840 59,890 72,030 57,870
Potatoes :

Winter : 5,220 5,380 4,980 4,820

Spring : 37.070 35,860 36,580 35,130

Summer : 38.770 29,340 37,350 28,610
Sweetpotatoes : 34,840 35,210 33,510 33,830
Hops : 17,160 17,580

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop. ie.. grain. beans. etc.
2/ 1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-5 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

October 28, 1995
LAST CHART FOR THIS SEASON

NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY sed on prosminay rests

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and-
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses... applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile.
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-1 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, WR

and United States,

1994 and Forecasted November 1,

State.

Area Harvested

Class and Type

Production

Class 1, Flue-Cured
Type 11, Old Belts

VA
US
Type 12, Eastern NC
Beit
NC
Type 13, NC Border &
SC Belt
NC
Sc
US
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
FL
GA
US
Total 11-14

Class 2, Fire-Cured
Type 21, VA Belt

Type 22, Eastern
District
KY
TN
US
Type 23. Western
District
KY
TN
US
Total 21-23

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-Cured

Typ6 31, Burley

MO 1/

WV 1/
us .
Type 32. Southern MD
Belt

MD
PA

us
Total 31-32

RWKONW COD

000
000
000

000

Soco Soo
Seco saa

100

---- Acres ----
74,000 76
: 341000 34
5 108/000 110
: 131,000 142
30,000 34
47.000 50
77,000 84
6,500
37.000 42
43.500 49;
59.500 385.
1,350 1
4,100
8.100
12/200 11
3.900 3
630
4.530 4
18.080 16.
7,100
175,000 16
3,500
8.200
8,500
51.000 4
11,000
2/000
266,300 24
8,500
3/600
12/100 12
278/400 258

mNN

NIN

BRR Ninn

900
050
946

830

400
400

.700
500
671
399

450
900
+579

--- Pounds ---
2,440 1
2,420 2
2,434 1
2,525 1
2,365
2,300
2,325
2,550
2,180
2,235
2,420
1,780
2,660
2,570
2,600
3,190 2
2,800 2
3,136 2
2,673 2
2,150
2,400
2,290
2,140
2,160
2,125
1,935
1,775
2,300
1,500 1
1,950 1
1,634 1
2,271 1

970

180,560

82,280 -

262,840

330,775

19'770
632,168

»
i
ford
a

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast

Crop Production
November 1995

A-21

“continued

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States
1993-94 and Forecasted November 1, 1995

State en enn nee ee eee ene eee eee ee eee eee ee eee eee eee eee
1993 1994 1995
Tons (In-shell Basis)
OR : 40,800 21.000 37,900
WA 1/ : 200 100 100
US 41,000 21,100 38.000

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1994-95

Fresh Production

-- 1,000 Pounds --

Sep : 3,250 3.745 2,125 2,330 4,200 2,730
Oct : 3,175 3.735 1,945 2,370 5,015 3,070
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1995 A-27 NASS. USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted November 1, 1995

Area Harvested Yield Production

CT 1,600 1,990 1,611 1,662 2,533 2,578 3,308
FL 6,500 7,200 2,550 2,410 18,673 16.575 17,352
GA 37,000 42,000 2,180 2,000 96,320 80.660 84,000
IN 7,100 6,500 2,150 2,120 17,415 15,265 13,780
kY 187,000 172,700 2,426 2,123 455,080 453,687 366,680
MD 8,500 8.500 1,500 1,450 12,255 12,750 12,325
MA : 490 500 1,616 1,668 738 792 834
MO 1/ : 3,500 2,700 2.290 2,100 4.760 8,015 5.670
NC : 243,200 260.100 2.466 1.845 608.415 599,833 479,780
OH 8,500 8.300 2,160 1.990 18,900 18,360 16,520
PA 9,000 7,900 2,040 1.985 18,260 18,360 15,685
Sc 47,000 50,000 2,300 2,150 110,760 108,100 107,500
TN 60,350 56,720 2,192 1,848 139,423 132, 289 104,836
VA 46.420 44,170 2,285 1,929 99,544 106,092 85,212
wy o1/ 2.000 2,000 1,775 1,700 3,600 3,550 3,400
WI 3.000 3,000 1,970 2,067 6,643 5,910 6,200
US : 671,160 674,280 2,358 1.962 1,613,319 1,582,816 1.323.082

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-23 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

October 28, 1995
LAST CHART FOR THIS SEASON
gy *
MOIST
MOIST
MorsT
MODERATE
\ C ‘MODERATE’ 2)
Q MOIST,
= MOIST
NL { MOIST Q MOIST
S
MODERATE. r
‘MODERATE
0
MOIST

NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY __Based on preliminary reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes tttt?e from week to week: and
reflects long term moisture runoff. recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and Streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-2 NASS, USDA


Peanuts:
and United States,

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State

1994 and Forecasted November 1. 1995

State :

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres
222.0 214.
84.0 82.
649.0 590.
21.0 20.
151.0 144.
100.0 100.
12.5 12.
287.0 270.
92.0 89.
1,618.5 1,521

1995

0 2,010 2,300
0 2,470 2,600
0 2,870 2,200
0 2,460 2,300
0 3,215 2,400
0 2,610 2,600
5 2,900 2.600
0 2,110 2,300
0 3,165 2,200

Production 1/

---- 1,000 Pounds ---

300
500
350
000
400
200
800
150
200

446,
207,
1,862,
51,
485,
261,
36,
605,
291,

220
480
630
660
465
000
250
570
180

492,200
205,000
1,386,500
40,000
345,600
220,000
35,000
680,500
195,800

Estimates comprised

Vv

Crop Production
November 1995

of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Selected Crops: Area Planted by State
and United States, 1993-95

State : Upland : Pima : Peanuts : Rice
: Cotton : Cotton :

1,000 Acres

AL : *600 215

AZ : *365 *48

AR : *1,170 *1.350
CA : *1,180 *100 *467
FL : 110 *90

GA : 1,500 *595

KS : *3

LA : *1,075 *575
MS : 1,500 *290
MO : *460 *118
NM : 55 15 20

NC : 800 *144

OK : 370 102

sc *340 13

TN 700

TX 6,300 *36 275 *320
VA *107 92

Year United States

1993 : 13, 248.3 190.0 1,733.5 2,920
1994 : 13,551.6 168.5 1,641.0 3,353
1995 : 16,635.0 199.0 1,546.0 3

* Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1995 A-10 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield
surveys in 6 States which account for about 72 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton
Production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton
fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1
through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts
shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not
official estimates of NASS.

Cotton: Cumulative Bol] Counts, September and November 1991-1995,
and Final, 1991-1994 1/

Arkansas

Number

1991 : 1.261

1,161 1.083 1,010 797 782
1992 : 1,112 1,062 1,013 1,076 822 817
1993 : 1,120 1,158 1,082 859 769 753
1994 : 1,239 1,227 1,221 1,019 813 812
1995 : 1,077 1,042 850 689

Louisiana

1991 : 909 826 814 881 813 770

1992 : 839 841 819 882 858 875
1993 : 930 839 839 746 662 661
1994 : 828 805 806 808 747 748
1995 : 751 682 679 615
Mississippi Texas

1991 : 890 734 726 466 449 430
1992 : 896 713 708 432 484 489
1993 : 697 619 608 505 A480 489
1994 : 864 761 760 515 484 486
1995 682 607 423 409

1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls
(at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and
burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-33 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Frequency of Farmer Reported Row Widths,
Selected States, 1995

Number

IL 1 203 39 24

IN : 3 148 28 8

IA : 178 30 79 2
MO : 7 67 4

MN 9 114 16 22

MI 4 76 § 11 1
NE 1 98 79 16 2
OH 121 7 7

SO 42 26 33

WI 1 59 13 44 2
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1995 A-30 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Crop

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Rice
Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts
All Cotton

Upland

Amer -Pima
Cottonseed
Potatoes

Fall

Total
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed
Hazelnuts

Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,

1994 and Forecasted November 1,

(Metric Units)

:Yield per Hectare:

1995

Metric Tons

628,
638,
971,
493,
926,
280,
207,

73,
898,

780
300
110
190
610
900
370
530
140

240
680
950
830

320
140

191,560,
12,492,
8,057,
59,620.
1,592,
4,168,
4,086,
81,
6.689,

18,
20,

26,
27,

Crop Production
November 1995

1994: 1995
8.70 7.14 256,
4.58 3.54 16
6.69 6.32 8
2.78 2.38 68
2.94 258 1
0.79 0.64 4
0.79 0.63 4
1.09 0.98

6

: 39.68 37.40 19,

: 37.93 36.25 21,

: 2.64 2.20

149.70 45.4529,

: 74.01 73.72 28,

A-7

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States. 1994-95 (Domestic Units)

Crop and Unit

1994 1994 1995 1/

wetenee 1,000 -------

Oats Bu: 57.1 55.2 229,008 163,197
Barley so: 56.2 57.6 374,862 361,352
All Wheat " t 37.6 35.9 2,320,981 2,183,429

Winter “oo: 40.2 37.8 1,661,943 1,550,511

Durum “o: 35.6 30.5 96,747 102,220

Other Spring . : 31.8 32.2 562,291 530,698
Rye . t 27.9 26.3 11,341 9,928
Sunflower Lb: 1,410 1,313 4,836,185 4,574,450
All Hay Ton : 2.56 2.61 150,124 157,003

Alfalfa . : 3.36 3.43 81,398 85,906

All Other . : 1.99 2.00 68.726 71,097
Ory Edible Beans 2/ (wt : 1,582 1.603 29,187 30,584
Ory Edible Peas 2/ . : 1,762 2.300 2,255 3.749
Austrian Winter :

Peas 2/ "or 1,109 1,507 51 101
Lentils 2/ . : 1,043 1,352 1,856 1,934
Potatoes :

Winter Cwt : 193 208 2.372 2.473

Spring . : 251 258 22,646 22,387

Summer . : 243 249 22,391 17,590
Hops Lb: 1,758 1,748 74,559.6 75,972.0
Apples, Comm’] “ : 11,335,500 11,135,500
Peaches . : 2,506,500 2,492,700
Pears Ton : 1,046.2 963.3
Grapes . : 5,870.6 5,776.5
Sweet Cherries “oot 207.2 135.7
Tart Cherries Lb: 287,800 391,000
Apricots Ton : 158.2 67.5
Olives (CA) "Oo: 84.0 85.0
Dried Prunes (CA) " 193.0 185.0
Prunes and Plums a
(Excl CA) “ o 38.1 25.0
Almonds (CA) Lb: 730,000 310.000
Pecans " : 199,000 248,000
Walnuts (CA) Ton : 232.0 220.0
Citrus Fruits 3/ : 1994-95 1995-96

Oranges Ton : 11,616 11,659

Grapefruit "oy 2,912 2,809

Lemons “ot 916 1,045

1/ 1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast, except grapefruit.

2/ Yield in pounds.

3/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-6 NASS, USDA


Cottonseed: Production, United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted November 1, 1995 }

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-19 NASS. USDA


Selected Crops: Area Plant
nd United Stat 19

1,000 Acres
AL : 250 230 12
AZ : 35
AR : 95 *3,450 200
CA : 420 *13.0
co : 900 *200 77.0
CT : 37
DE 145 235
FL : 100 0
GA : 420 330 55°
1D : 95 400.0
IL : 10,200 9.700 180
IN : *5,400 *5,000 5.0
IA : *11,700 *9,300
KS : 2,150 2,100 3,100
KY 280 *1,150 *25
LA : 250 1,080 *B5
ME : 33 *78.0
MD : 440 550
MA 29 3.3
MI : 2.450 1,500 60.0
MN t *6,700 *5.900 83.0
MS : 300 *1,850 50
MO : *1,600 *4.600 *520
MT : $5 9.8
NE : 8,100 *3,100 *1,300 *11.1
NV : 7.6
NH 18
NJ : 98 120
NM : 130 220 6.2
NY : 1,100 30.0
NC : *800 *1,150 30
ND : 700 *660 *125.0
OH : *3,300 *4,050 5.5
OK : 150 300 *330
OR : 42 *52.0
PA 1,380 320 18.0
RI 3 0.9
SC 300 550 15
SD 2,800 *2,600 *250 *6.0

* Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-9 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruits:

1994-95 and Forecasted 1996 on November 1,

Utilized Production
Boxes

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navet 3/ 4/
AZ
CA
FL
TX
US
Valencia 4/

us
Temples 4/
FL
Grapefruit
White Seedless
FL 4/
Colored Seedless
FL 4/
Other
FL 4/
All
AZ 4/
CA 4/ 5/
Desert
Other Areas
Total
FL 4/
TX
US
Tangerines 4/

CA
FL
US
Lemons 4/
AZ
CA
us
Tangelos 4/
FL

K-Early Citrus 4/
FL

: 107,

174)

36,

£145,

27.
67.

95.

63,

: 240.

o

370

900

600
400
550
450

250

500
500
050
750
400
900
300
050
000
100

000

26,
85,

112,

400

000
119.

156,

700
950
050

650
000
700
105
455

050
61,
205,
1,055
268,

550

000
400

505

700
700
300
400

300

000

38,
122,

1,
161,
28,
80,
108,
100
66,
202.
1,200
270,
200
24,
29,

000
200

22,

NAN

800

000
000

300

000
000

500
54,
700
68.

000
400
950

Utilized Production
Ton Equivalent

> 1993

10,329

45
59

114
197

2,661

wn

il

15

£313
387

755

24
976

857
861

39

289
‘244

616

114

092
220

55
47

111
201

Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1995 1/

wr

won

li,

659

020
233

43
40

285

809

Crop Production
November 1995

Agricultural Statistics

NASS,


NEEEY National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service

Crop
Production

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released November 9, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on “Crop Production” cal] (202) 720-2127, office hours 8:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information
about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at
1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV. Forecasts refer to November 1, 1995.

Corn Production Down 2 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 7.37 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the
October 1 forecast and 27 percent below the record high 1994 crop. Based on
conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 113.7 bushels per
acre, down 2.9 bushels from last month and 24.9 bushels below the record high
yield of 1994. Planted acreage is revised to 71.4 million acres, up

100.000 acres from the previous estimate. Acreage for harvest as grain is
estimated at 64.8 million acres, up 150,000 acres from the October estimate.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.18 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent
from the October 1 forecast and 13 percent below 1994. Yield is forecast at
35.4 bushets per acre. 0.1 bushel below October and 6.0 bushels below 1994.
Harvested acreage is estimated at 61.7 million acres, down 60,000 acres from the
October estimate. Planted acreage is estimated at 62.6 million acres, down
10,000 acres from the previous estimate.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report.

Cr Pr 2-2 (11-95)


Report Features

The next "Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET
December 12, 1995.

on

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National

Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional informat

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds. Rice (202) 720-9526
Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Tobacco. Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye. Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068 |
Charles Van Lahr - Barley, Carn, Oats (202) 720-7369
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Stephen Ropel. Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes. Dry Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285
Roger Latham - Cotton Hay (202) 720-5944
Linda McMillan - Nuts, Grapes (202) 720-4215
Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-2157
Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Barbara Soltes - Noncitrus Fruits, Peanuts (202) 720-7688
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-14 NASS, USDA

jon.


U.S. Corn Production
1986 - 1995

Billion Bushels

10,00 foes eeeteer ee eneetteesnentereesseemenetteeeeaeee FA rn PORN esesesesees
8,23 N
8.28 7.93 \

8.00) ee TT : ta ectueeaeeses NE ACT

6.00 AQT RAYE Z9g WAIT AQT RATA YAY ERAS | NYT

\
ual INV AVN VV IN\Y

E
LE
Lizz
ZizA
Yj
LZ

0.00
86 87 «688 «689-90 81 92 Bs

Year

November 1995



Corn for Grain:

and United States,

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

1994 and Forecasted November 1, 1995

Area Harvested

Production

1,000 Acres
AL : 260 220
AZ 1/ : 15 20
AR 1/ : 90 85
CA : 170 140
co 890 800
CT 2/
DE : 150 142
FL 1/ : 80 60
GA : 540 360
ID 1/ : 35 35
IL : 11.450 10,000
IN 5,960 5,300
IA 12.700 11,400
KS 2,130 1,950
KY : 1,220 1,150
LA 1/ : 306 235
ME 2/
MD 390 380
MA 2/
MI 2,230 2,100
MN 6,450 6,100
MS 1/ 305 275

2. 1,

8. 7,

1/ Est
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production
November 1995

es for curren

96 70.
170 160.
120 125.
165 165.
150 135.
125 95.

85 77.
106 100.
140 140.
156 117.
144 119.
152 121.
143 135.
128 122.
115 105.
118 100.
117 120
142 123
100 95

year carried forw

A-11

70.
160.
125.
165.
122.

90.

77.
100.
140.
113.
116.
121.
120.
117.
105.

100.
117.

119.
95.

24,960
2,550
10,800
28,050
133,500

18,750
6,800
57,240
4,900
1.786.200
858, 240
1,930,400
304,590

260,910

earlier forecast.

1

1,

--- 1,000 Bushels ---

15,400

3,200
10,625
23,100
97,600

12,780
4,620
36,000
4,900
. 130,000
614,
379,400
234,000
134,550
24,675

38,000
245,700

725,900
26,125

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Texas Citrus: Rain slowed harvest during October but was beneficial to trees.

Groves remained in good condition. Early interior quality was
good despite irregular shaped fruit in some groves. Grapefruit harvest just
began, and about 15 percent of early oranges were picked.

Hazelnuts: Production in Oregon and Washington remained at 38,000 tons.

80 percent above jast year. This level is 7 percent below the 1993
record high of 41,000 tons. Oregon expects 37,900 tons, an increase of
80 percent from 1994. Washington's production, at 100 tons, is carried forward
from August. Although progress was slowed earlier by wet orchards. recent dry
weather enabled growers to finish harvesting. At least 90 percent of the
harvest is complete. Good nut quality is reported.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production totaled 3.07 million pounds in October,
12 percent more than September but 39 percent below October 1994.

Weather was a mix of light rain and sunshine over major producing areas. Papaya
ringspot virus continues to depress yields and production, especially on the
island of Hawaii.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3.735 acres in October, down slightly
from September but 18 percent more than a year ago. Harvested area, at

2,370 acres. increased 2 percent above last month and 22 percent above last
October.

California Fruits and Nuts: Maintenance of stone fruit orchards kept caretakers

busy with pruning and tree planting the primary
activities. Grape harvest continued throughout the month in the San Joaquin
Valley. By mid-month, most of the raisin crop was picked up and boxed. Table
wine and juice grape harvest continued. Walnut. almond. and pistachio harvests
continued, with almond and pistachio harvests nearing completion. Kiwifruit
harvest was in full swing throughout the State. Persimmons (both Fuya and
Hachiya) and pomegranates were picked in the Sacramento Valley. Olive harvest
neared completion in the Sacramento Valley. Granny Smith and Fuji apple harvests
continued in the San Joaquin Valley and neared completion in Sonoma County.
Medjool dates were harvested in Imperial County. The San Joaquin Valley
Strawberry harvest continued.

California Citrus: Desert grapefruit picking continued with good quality. Lemon

harvest in the Desert remained active with excellent grades.
Navel orange picking began tn Southern San Joaquin Valley. Old crop Valencia
orange harvest slowed down by the end of the month.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-10 NASS., USDA


Measured Row Spacing of Soybeans: Percentage Distribution and
Average Width for Selected States, 1991-95 1/

poperere rer erer te neee ee pet ae sreseSsre Eee rneeE ‘Average

210.0 & : 10.1- : 18.6- : 28.6- : 34.6 & : Row
: Less 2/.: 18.5 : 28.5 : 34.5 : Greater :Width 2/
Percent of Plots Inches
26.0 6.9 22.4 25.2 19.5 25.1
19.1 7.5 25.5 28.0 19.9 27.3
24.2 12.5 23.8 25.8 13.7 23.8
30.7 10.8 16.7 14.7 27.1 23.9
36.2 10.5 29.0 15.5 8.8 19.7
23.6 9.2 3.3 48.7 15.2 24.6
33.5 7.4 6.3 41.1 11.7 22.0
38.0 6.7 3.9 40.8 10.6 21.2
45.6 11.4 3.0 34.6 §.4 18.4
$7.1 10.1 2.9 26.0 3.9 16.0
32.4 12.8 4.6 44.5 5.7 22.0
35.7 15.3 3.0 38.7 7.3 20.4
56.0 13.4 4.0 23.2 3.4 15.6
58.0 13.1 1.7 23.8 3.4 15.5
68.0 10.2 3.4 17.0 1.4 13.3
7.9 1.9 5.0 58.8 26.4 30.5
18.1 3.9 5.8 52.7 19.5 28.0
23.2 6.3 5.3 50.0 15.2 26.3
28.3 9.9 6.0 44.2 11.6 24.2
28.2 10.5 5.6 40.4 15.3 24.6
23.4 12.8 6.0 50.9 6.9 23.5
24.4 15.6 5.4 42.4 12.2 22.5
29.6 14.6 1.9 49.0 4.9 21.3
36.2 12.4 6.9 35.6 8.9 20.0
25.0 14.3 9.7 46.4 4.6 21.6
32.6 12.4 5.6 35.2 14.2 22.2
38.0 14.5 3.2 38.6 5.7 19.9
41.9 7.9 4.8 23.8 21.6 22.1
46.4 15.0 6.0 23.3 9.3 18.0
§3.1 14.0 5.7 22.3 4.9 16.4
11.1 4.9 2.5 39.5 42.0 31.3
13.7 2.5 3.1 49.6 31.1 29.4
18.3 6.3 7 44.4 30.3 28.5
21.6 6.8 2.7 35.8 33.1 27.8
23.6 8.6 5.2 37.9 24.7 25.2
48.0 21.2 2.4 23.6 4.8 16.7
54.6 18.4 4.9 21.3 8 14.6
63.8 16.9 1.6 16.1 1.6 13.3
66.5 14.6 3.2 11.7 4.0 12.9
68.0 21.5 1.6 6.9 2.0 11.4

V/ Based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective yield
samples.

2/ Broadcast soybeans included as 10.0 inches and less but excluded in com-
putation of average width.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-32 NASS, USDA


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To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C..

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employment opportunity employer.

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 8-15 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Pods with Beans and Row Width

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting soybean objective
yield surveys in 8 States during 1995. Plots are randomly selected from a
scientifically drawn sample of soybean fields, that are visited monthly from
August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Sample data
from the surveys presented in the following table are not Agricultural
Statistics Board official estimates but are intended to show trends in soybean
production practices.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet
Selected States, 1991 - 1995 1/ 2/

State
and 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Month
Number of Pods

AR Sept 3/ : NA NA NA NA NA
Nov 1,336 1,713 1.399 1.782 1,755
Final 9: 1.327 1.705 1.327 1.673

IL Sept > 1,874 1,698 1,937 1.745 1,816
Nov : 1,450 1,503 1.712 1.639 1.764
Final : 1.450 1.502 1.701 1,636

IN Sept - : 1.535 1.623 1.938 1.850 1,755
Nov : 1,508 1.543 1.703 1.574 1.677
Fina) =: (1,508 1.543 1,703 1.570

IA Sept : 1,406 1,501 1.336 1,887 1,739
Nov : 1,451 1.464 1.340 1.820 1,611
Final =: 1.456 1.473 1.340 1.820

MN Sept > 1,400 1,431 1.037 1,678 1,613
Nov : 1.478 1.367 1,106 1.496 1.501
Final =: 1,476 1,367 1.105 1.496

MO Sept : 1,239 1,682 1.493 1,470 895
Nov : 1,416 1,607 1.727 1.643 1,462
Final. 1,426 1.602 1,699 1,659

NE Sept : 1,487 1,517 1,469 1.676 1,404
Nov : 1423 1.504 1.414 1.826 1.420
Final : 1,422 1,509 1,445 1,826

OH Sept : 1,426 1.462 1.617 1.950 1.790
Nov : 1,313 1,394 1.361 1.643 1.647
Final: 1,312 1.404 1.361 1.643

1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ Final pod counts will be published in January.
3/ Not available due to plant immaturity.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-31 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States, 1994-95 (Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare Production

Oo)
1994 1995 1/ : 1994 1995 1/
Metric Tons

Oats 2.05 1.98 3,324,040 2,368,800
Barley 3.02 3.10 8.161, 660 7,867,510
All Wheat 2.53 2.41 63,166.750 59,423,190

Winter 2.70 2.54 45,230,680 42,197,990

Durum 2.40 2.05 2,633,020 2,781,970

Other Spring 2.14 2.17 15,303,050 14,443,230
Rye 1.75 1.65 288,070 252,180
Sunflower 1.58 1.47 2,193,660 2,074,940
All Hay 5.73 5.84 136,190,200 142,430,720

Alfalfa 7.53 7.82 73,843.020 77,932,610

All Other 4.46 4.48 62.347.180 64,498,110
Dry Edible Beans 1.77 1.80 1,323,900 1,387,270
Dry Edible Peas 1.97 2.58 102.290 170,050
Austrian Winter

Peas 1.24 1.69 2,310 4,580
Lentils 1.17 1.52 84,190 87,720
Potatoes :

Winter : 21.60 23.27 107,590 112,170

Spring : 28.08 28.91 1,027,210 1,015,460

Summer : 27.19 27.89 1,015,640 797,870
Hops : 1.97 1.96 33,820 34,460
Apples, Comm’1 : 5,141,700 5,050,980
Peaches : 1,136,930 1,130,670
Pears : 949,100 873,890
Grapes : 5,325,720 5,240,350
Sweet Cherries : 187,970 123,100
Tart Cherries : 130,540 177,350
Apricots : 143,520 61,230
Olives (CA) : 76.200 77,110
Dried Prunes (CA) : 175,090 167.830
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) : 34,560 22,680
Almonds (CA) : 331,120 140.610
Pecans : 90.260 112.490
Walnuts (CA) : 210,470 199,580
Citrus Fruits 2/ : 1994-95 1995-96

Oranges : 10,537,860 10,576,870

Grapefruit : 2,641,720 2,548, 280

Lemons : 830,980 948.010

1/ 1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast, except grapefruit.
2/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-8 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted November 1, 1995 (continued)

Area Harvested Yield Production

Class and Type pore cere re ee ee ee ee ene te ee ee eee ee ee ee eee

: 1994 : 1995 : 1994: 1995 1994 1995
---- Acres ---- --- Pounds --- -- 1,000 Pounds --
Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air-Cured
Type 35, One Sucker

Belt :

KY : 2,600 2,200 2,480 2,300 6,448 5,060

TN : 620 510 2,150 2,100 1,333 1,071

us : 3,220 2,710 2,416 2,262 7,781 6.131
Type 36, Green River

Belt :

KY : 1,400 1,200 2,780 2,350 3,892 2,820
Type 37, VA Sun-Cured :

Belt :

VA : 70 70 1,770 1,100 124 77
Total 35-37 : 4,690 3,980 2,515 2,268 11.797 9,028
Class 4, Cigar Filler :

Type 41, PA Seedleaf

PA : 5,400 4,500 2.100 2,050 11,340 9,225
Class 5, Cigar Binder :

Class 5A, CT Valley

Binder

Type 51, CT Valley

Broadleaf :

CT : 690 1.020 1,890 1,855 1,304 1,892

MA : 210 230 1.905 1,930 400 444

US : 900 1,250 1,893 1,869 1,704 2.336
Class 5B, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI

WI : 2,000 2,000 2,100 2,150 4,200 4,300
Type 55, Northern WI

WI 1,000 1,000 1,710 1,900 1,710 1,900
Total 54-55 3,000 3,000 1,970 2.067 5,910 6.200
Total 51-55 3,900 4,250 1,952 2.008 7,614 8,536
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:

Type 61, CT Valley

Shade-Grown :

cT : 910 970 1,400 1,460 1.274 1,416

MA : 280 270 =1,400 1.445 392 390

US : 1,190 1,240 1.400 1,456 1,666 1,806
All Cigar Types :

Total 41-61 10,490 9,990 1,966 1,959 20,620 19,567
Al] Tobacco : 674,280 2,358 1,962 1,582,816 1,323,082

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-22 NASS, USDA


Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). The indicated number of
ears per acre, if realized, would be the third highest on record. Weight of
grain per ear from the survey plots is the 4th lowest on record, exceeding only
the drought years of 1983 and 1988 and the flood year of 1993.

Sorghum for Grain: The final production forecast for 1995 is 464 million

bushels; the lowest since 1956. This production level is
down 6 percent from October 1 and 29 percent from 1994. Yield declines were the
primary reason for the drop. The U.S. yield is forecast at 56.4 bushels per
acre, down 2.8 bushels from last month to the lowest average since 1989. All
forecasting States lowered yield expectations from last month except Louisiana,
New Mexico, and Texas which were unchanged. Grain area is now 8.22 million
acres, down 8 percent from last year and down 1 percent from last month. All
planted acres are at 9.19 million, the lowest since 1929.

Rice: Production of all rice is forecast at 174 million cwt.. 2 percent below

the October 1 forecast and 12 percent below 1994. Louisiana rice yield
increased from last month while yields in Arkansas, California, and Mississippi
decreased. The U.S. yield is down 75 pounds from Vast month. Harvested acreage
in California was revised up 17,000 acres from October. Missouri increased
harvested acreage by 11,000 from last month. Louisiana and Texas both revised
harvested acreage down by 20,000 from October. Mississippi decreased harvested
acreage 7,000 from last month. Planted and harvested acreage in the six major
producing States are estimated at 3.12 and 3.09 million acres, respectively.
State changes to planted acres can be found on page A-10. Most rice was
harvested by the end of October in all States.

Fall Potatoes: Production of fall potatoes for 1995 is forecast at 402 million
cwt, the second largest fall potato crop produced in the United

States after last year’s record large crop. Comparable percent change (with the

addition of the former summer crops from Michigan and Minnesota) places this

crop 5 percent below 1994 but 3 percent above 1993. Area harvested, at

1.21 million acres, is down slightly from last year. The average yield is

projected at 334 cwt per acre, down 18 cwt from last year and 6 cwt below two

years ago. Planting and harvest were late in most States resulting in smaller

crops than last year. Total potato production from all four seasons was

445 million cwt in 1995, down 5 percent from last year but 4 percent above 1993.

Five Eastern States produced 29.9 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1995, down

3 percent from last year and 10 percent less than two years ago. Area for
harvest came in at 128,700 acres, up 2 percent from last year. The average
yield of 232 cwt per acre is off 14 cwt. The Maine crop fell 8 percent from a
year ago but New York gained 2 percent and Pennsylvania was up 8 percent.
Massachusetts gained 13 percent and Rhode Island slipped 2 percent. Hot. dry
weather during much of the growing season hurt yields but kept a mild blight
situation in check. Harvest is nearly finished, with a few late fields to dig.

Central States production is forecast at 97.2 million cwt this year, up slightly
from comparable totals a year ago (including summer crops from Minnesota and
Michigan) and 22 percent greater than the poor crops of 1993. Harvested area is
estimated at 361,300 acres, a gain of 4 percent from last year. The average
yield of 269 cwt per acre is 12 cwt below last year and 19 cwt above 1993.
Growing weather throughout the summer was favorable for healthy potato
development across most of the region. Yields were generally good with

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-5 NASS, USDA



Minnesota growers achieving a record high. Harvest brought additional rains
causing some fields and parts of fields to go undug. Larger crops were grown
this year in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Minnesota. Lower production was shown
in North and South Dakota and Nebraska.

Ten Western States produced 275 million cwt in 1995, down 8 percent from last
year and 1 percent below two years ago. Acreage for harvest. at 716,000 acres,
was down 3 percent, while the average yield of 384 cwt per acre dropped 21 cwt
from a year ago. Idaho's production of 131 million cwt is the second largest on
record, 5 percent below last year. Open fall weather allowed a late crop to go
into storage in excellent condition. Production in Washington dropped 9 percent
below the last two years as blight hurt yields in the southern Basin. Oregon's
production slid 12 percent from last year but remained 5 percent above two years
ago. Blight damage cut sharply into production potential of Idaho and Oregon's
Treasure Valley. The late season reduced Colorado’s potato crop 8 percent from
their record high last year. Weather problems in California, Montana, Utah,
Wyoming. and New Mexico contributed to smaller crops than a year ago.

Soybeans: Growers plan to harvest 61.7 million acres, down 60,000 acres from

the October estimate. Planted acreage is estimated at 62.6 million
acres, down 10.000 acres from the previous estimate. State changes to planted
acres can be found on page A-9. The November Objective Yield Survey showed the
second highest pod count, exceeded only in 1994. Soybean harvest was ahead of
1994 and the average by the end of October.

In comparison with the 1991-95 time period, the 1995 number of pods per
18 square feet is the highest in Illinois and Minnesota. In Illinois, the
percent of soybeans harvested was ahead of last year and the average. In
Minnesota, the percent of soybeans harvested was behind last year and the
average.

In Arkansas, Indiana, and lowa the 1995 number of pods is the second highest
compared with the 1991-95 period. [In all three States the percent harvested was
ahead of last year and the average.

In Missouri and Nebraska the 1995 number of pods ranks fourth in the 1991-95
period. In both States the percent harvested was ahead of last year and the
average.

Peanuts: Production declined slightly from October to 3.50 billion pounds and
18 percent below the 1994 crop. Better than expected yields in
Georgia and South Carolina nearly offset reduced crops in New Mexico, Oklahoma,
and Texas. Harvested area, at 1.52 million acres, is down 3,000 acres from
October 1 and stands 6 percent below 1994. Yields are expected to average
2,301 pounds per acre, 1 pound below last month and 323 pounds below last year.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.12 billion pounds. up 4 percent from October 1.
but 17 percent below the 1994 crop. The yield for the 4-State area is expected
to average 2,358 pounds per acre. 93 pounds above last month. Acreage expected
for harvest in the region is down 69,000 acres from last year to 898,500.
Yields in Georgia and South Carolina proved better than expected as harvest
progressed. Across most of the region, early October rains slowed harvest and
hurt grades. Skies cleared quickly after Hurricane Opal minimizing losses.
Open weather prevailed during the last half of October to put harvest back on

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-6 NASS. USDA


Corn: Plant Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
surveys in 10 States during 1995. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts
and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey
and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board. but are
intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Plant population per acre,
Selected States, 1991-95

Number of Plants

IL : 23,700 23,000 23,300 23,200 23,650

IN : 22,400 23,200 23,200 22,850 24,000
IA : 22,900 23.300 23.500 23,950 24,650
MI : 21,800 21,600 22,800 21,800 22,850
MN : 23,900 24,600 25,100 26.000 26,350
MO : 19,800 18,800 19,300 19,650 20,400
NE : 22,200 21,900 22,200 21,700 22,500
OH : 23,200 23,300 23,300 22,900 23,300
So : 17,500 17,800 17,600 19,250 20,000
wi : 23,400 22,800 23,600 23,600 24,000

1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre
Selected States

Number
IL : 21,800 23,000 22,600 22,600 22,850
IN : 20,300 22,700 22,200 22,150 22,950
1A : 21,700 24,000 22,500 24,000 24,000
MI : 21,800 24,600 22,300 22,250 22,500
MN : 24,100 27,000 24,900 26,950 25,700
MO : 18,800 19,400 18,500 19,250 19,450
NE : 21,900 22,100 21,100 21,300 21,700
OH : 20.800 23,200 21,700 22,500 22,500
SD : 18,000 20.700 18,000 21,300 20,300
WI : 22,600 23,300 23,100 24,650 23,250

1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-28 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Crop and Unit

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Rice 1/
Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts
All Cotton 1/
Upland 1/
Amer-Pima 1/
Cottonseed
Potatoes
Fall
Total
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed
Hazelnuts

: Yield

(Domestic Units)

per Acre

1995 :

113.7
56.4
5,635
35.4
2,301
567
563
877

334
323
1,962
20.3

32.9

1994

10,103,030
655.021
197,779

2,516,694
4,247,455
19,662.0
19,324.3
337.7
7,603.9

420,515
467.924
1,582,816
31,994

30.929
21.1

1995

Production

7,541,400
491,824
177,642

2,190,661

3,510,100

19,143.7
18,770.7
373.0
7,373.7

1,307,904
28, 833

30,222
38.0

Yield per Acre and Production, United States
1994 and Forecasted November 1,

7,373,700
463,634
174,223

2,182,991

3,500,600

18,837.7
18,480.7
357.0
7,258.7

402,384
444,834
1,323,082
28,892

30,659
38.0

1/ Yield in pounds.

Crop Production
November 1995

A-4

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS,

USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative
Citrus Fruit 7 A-24 B- 4
Corn Cropping Practices............ 0. cece eee ee eee ees A-28
Corn for Grain... 2... eee cet eee eee A-11 B- 4
Corn for Grain Row Width... eee A-29
COLTON. octet eee eet eee A-19 B- 7
Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts.................-...000, A-32
Cottonseed... cee A-18
Crop Maps. . B- 1
Crop Summary A- 3 B- 3
HazeInuts.. 0... eee eet eens A-27 B-10
PapaydaS.. 0... ect ects A-27 B-10
Peanuts... eee cect eee e eee ees A-18 B- 6

A-15 B- 5

A-33

B-11

A-14 B- 5
Sorghum for Grain... 2... eee eee A-13 B- 5
Soybeans for Beans........ cece cee eee eee A-16 B- 6
Soybeans, Row Spacing.............. 2.0 A-30
Sugarbeets. 0... 0... eee cee A-23 B- 9
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed.............. 20.0... 20.0005 A-23 B- 9
Tobacco by Class and Type.......... cece eee eee ee eee A-20
Tobacco by States........ A-22 B- 8
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1995 B-13 NASS, USDA


Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between October 23 and November 2 to gather information on
expected yield as of November 1. The objective yield surveys for corn,
soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually
account for at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected
fields and plots within fields are surveyed each month. The items counted
within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In
all cases. number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that
provide information to forecast the number of pods. ears, or bolls and their
weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a
projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted
to obtain a net yield. The plots are re-visited each month until crop maturity
when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested
the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting
loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 19,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about their probable yields.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors.
reasonablcness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their
analysis of the current Situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published
November 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The monthly production forecasts wil? not be revised:

instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season followed by end-of-season estimates. At the end of the marketing
year, administrative records and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover
stocks, production, exports. processing. feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions
are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be
revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that
the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the November 1
production forecasts. the "Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
November 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1975-1994 20-year period is computed: then the square root of the
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year’s forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-11 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group,
State. and United States, 1993-95

Seasonal : Area Harvested Yield Production
Group pret ce ect eee eee eee eee +--+ e+ - 2 eee e---- eeeee
and : : : : : : :
State : 1994: 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1993 : 1994: 1995
- 1,000 Acres - ---- Cwt ---- 0 ------ 1,000 Cwt ------
Winter 1/ : 12.3 11.9 193 208 2,552 2,372 2,473
Spring 1/ : 90.4 86.8 251 258 19,654 22,646 22,387
Summer 1/ 2/ : 71.7 70.7 242 249 14,922 17,381 17,590
Fall
CA 14.0 13.0 400 410 4,800 5,600 5,330
co 73.7 76.8 350 310 «25,270 925,795 23,808
ID : 408.0 398.0 340 330 126,192 138,801 131,274
10 SW Co : 27.0 27.0 470 410 10.440 12,690 11,070
Other 1D : 381.0 371.0 331 324 115,752 126,111 120,204
IN : 4.1 4.6 280 260 1,050 1,148 1,196
ME 75.0 78.0 245 215 19,890 18,375 16,770
MA 3.1 3.3 240 255 645 744 842
MI 2/ 55.0 57.5 271 300 15,280 14,910 17,250
MN 2/ 74.6 79.0 269 270 «14,780 20,035 21,330
MT 10.0 9.8 320 300 2,700 3.200 2,940
NE 11.1 10.6 360 315 3,008 3,996 3,339
NV 8.0 7.6 345 365 2,926 2,760 2.774
NM : 6.0 6.2 500 400 2,871 3,000 2,480
NY 3/ : 28.6 29.5 273 270 7,693 7,805 7,965
Long Is : 6.1 265 1,643 1,617
Upstate : 22.5 275 6,050 6,188
ND : 120.0 121.0 235 205 21,090 28,200 24,805
OH : 5.5 5.4 245 260 1,140 1,348 1,404
OR : 55.8 51.0 493 473 23,103 27,514 24,147
Malheur : 11.8 12.3 430 390 3,567 5,074 4,797
Other OR : 44.0 38.7 510 500 19,536 22,440 19,350
PA : 18.0 17.0 210 240 4,600 3,780 4,080
RI : 1.1 0.9 225 270 226 248 243
SD : 5.5 5.2 280 190 1,066 1,540 988
UT 6.0 5.1 265 240 1,643 1,590 1,224
WA 152.0 147.0 585 550 88,500 88,920 80,850
WI 71.5 78.0 360 345 22,588 25,740 26,910
WY 1.7 1.5 280 290 504 476 435
Total 1,208.3 1,206.0 352 334 391,565 425,525 402,384
US : 1,382.7 1,375.4 338 323 428.693 467.924 444,834

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Includes acres and production in Fall Potatoes formerly listed as summer

potatoes.
3/ Long Island and Upstate breakout not estimated separately in 1995.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-15 NASS, USDA



3.00

2.50

2.00

150; WAT

1.00

0.50) 17

0.00

U.S. Soybean Production

1986 - 1995
Billion Bushels
282
cessesesessusssetesessssssecsueesesssesssessserssesasersvenseesteees an / ie 8
1.99
je tee age 190 7) 97 7117

Y
= NY
y Y

86 687 «88 «©6889: «690s 82 98h
Year

SSS

Crop Production Agricultura 1 Statistics Board
A-17 NASS, A


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States.
1994 and Forecasted November 1, 1995
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/
Crop wna enn eee eee ee ee eee eee ee eee ee eee eee eee rere eee
1995 1994 1995
1,000 Acres

Corn : 79,158 71,408 72,917 64,832

Sorghum : 9,772 9,192 8,967 8,216

Rice : 3,353.0 3,120.0 3,316.0 3,092.0

Soybeans : 61,670 62,575 60,859 61,656

Peanuts : 1,641.0 1,546.0 1,618.5 1,521.5

All Cotton > 13,720.1 16,834.0 13,322.3 15,948.5

Upland : 13,551.6 16,635.0 13,155.9 15,753.0

Amer-Pima : 168.5 199.0 166.4 196.5
Potatoes :

Fall > 1,220.1 1,225.1 1,187.7 1,206.0

Total : 1,420.4 1,399.5 1,382.7 1,375.4

Tobacco : 671.2 674.3

Sugarbeets : 1,475.8 1,449.6 1,443.0 1,424.9
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed : 936.8 932.3

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested. United States,
1994 and Forecasted November 1, 1995
(Metric Units)

Hectares

Corn : 32,034,450 28,898.100 29.508.780 26,236,860
Sorghum : 3,954,630 3,719,910 3,628,860 3.324.930
Rice : 1,356,930 1,262,630 1,341,950 1,251,300
Soybeans : 24,957,230 25,323,480 24,629,030 24,951,570
Peanuts : 664,100 625.650 654,990 615,740
All Cotton : 5,552,390 6,812,550 5.391.400 6,454,200

Upland : 5,484,200 6.732.020 5,324,060 6.375.080

Amer -Pima : 68,190 80,530 67.340 79,120
Potatoes :

Fall : 493.760 495,790 480,650 488,060

Total : 574,820 566.360 559,560 556.610
Tobacco : 271,610 272,870
Sugarbeets : 597,240 586.640 583.970 576,640
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed : 379,110 377,290

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-3 NASS, USDA



Clear weather across the Midwest allowed harvest activity to progress rapidly,
pushing corn harvested 1 week ahead of schedule. High winds caused some
lodging, stalk breakage, and ear droppage in the western Corn Belt. Farmers in
the middle Mississippi Valley took advantage of fair weather to continue wheat
seeding at a normal pace. Cool, wet weather in the lower Great Plains helped
emerged wheat fields develop.

In early October. dry conditions across the Corn Belt and above-normal
temperatures dried row crops. Ideal fall harvest weather in the Corn Belt
allowed row crop harvest activity to proceed ahead of the average. Along the
Gulf Coast States. continued heavy rains caused additional damage to the cotton
crop and slowed harvest activity. Rain across the Gulf Coast and the Southeast
delayed plantings but provided moisture to recently planted wheat fields. The
moisture was welcomed along the eastern seaboard for recently planted small
grains. Much-needed precipitation was received in the Pacific Northwest and
helped small grain emergence. Warm, dry weather in the Central States allowed
small grain seeding to advance ahead of normal, while planting was behind the
average in the southern Great Plains.

By mid-October, suitable weather conditions in the Midwest a)lowed fal) harvest
activity to continue ahead of normal. Dry weather in the Midwest allowed small
grain planting to advance ahead of schedule by the middle of October. Ideal
fall weather pushed the corn harvest in the northern Corn Belt and Great Lakes.
In the central Great Plains, high winds damaged unharvested row crops. Dry soil
conditions in the middle Mississippi Valley hindered emergence of recently
planted wheat. Small grain fields needed moisture to aid emergence, and
planting was delayed as producers waited for rain. Heavy rains in Florida
damaged some vegetable acres and flooded citrus groves.

Later in the month, significant snow and rain in the upper Great Plains delayed
row crop harvest activity. Heavy snowfall damaged soybeans and sorghum that
remained in the field. The precipitation left fields saturated and halted
harvest activity. Cool. rainy weather slowed fieldwork in the Pacific Northwest
and the Great Lakes region. Suitable harvest weather allowed farmers in the
middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to make considerable harvest progress.

By the end of October, dry soil conditions forced some producers in the Central
States to wait for precipitation before seeding wheat. Ory weather in the
middie Mississippi Valley allowed planting progress to advance rapidly but
hindered small grain emergence. Emerged wheat fields in the central Great
Plains were damaged by high winds. Continued dry conditions in the middle and
lower Great Plains caused poor germination. Wet field conditions in the Pacific
Northwest slowed wheat seeding. The cotton harvest in the Delta neared
completion and farmers began gleaning fields.

Corn for Grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested is forecast at

64.8 million acres, up slightly from last month but 11 percent
below the 1994 acreage. All corn planted is estimated at 71.4 million acres, up
fractionally from the August 1 estimate but 10 percent below the 1994 planted
acreage.

As of October 29, 77 percent of the crop in the 17 major States had been
harvested, well ahead of the 62 percent average for the date. The November 1
corn objective yield survey data indicate the highest plant population for the
ten objective yield States (I]linois, Indiana, Iowa. Michigan, Minnesota,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-4 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year Shown and ends with
the year harvest is completed.

2/ Net 1bs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85: grapefruit-AZ & CA-67
FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;
tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

5/ California Desert and Other Areas Grapefruit forecasts combined to All
Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96.

U.S. Grapefruit Production
1987-1995 and Forecasted 1996

Million Tons

3.0 Oe eae ee eee eee ee Seer ee ree eee eee rere reer reer eS ee reer er eer rere reer Teer rere 29 ten eeeeeeeeee
28 28 2.8 28
27
2.6
2.8 +
2.0
2.04 TN
1.5 T uy T T T i T U T

T
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 199

Down 4% from last season

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 A-26 NASS, USDA


Cotton Production Down 2 Percent From Last Month

ATl cotton production is forecast at 18.8 million bales, down 2 percent from
last month, and 4 percent below 1994's output. Yield decreased 12 pounds from
October as production decreases in Alabama, Missouri, Texas, and the far West.
offset increases in Arkansas, Mississippi. and North Carolina. Alabama's crop
showed a 119 pound decrease from jast month's yield mainly from the effects of
drought and insects during the season.

This report was approved on November 9, 1995, by the Secretary of Agriculture
and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics
Board.

ha. te Ihh

v sécretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Dan Glickman Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1995 A-2 NASS, USDA




Fall Potatoes: Percent of Major Varieties Planted.
Selected States, 1995 Crop 1/

State State : Percent State : Percent
and and of Pl and of Pl
Varieties Acres Varieties Acres Varieties Acres

co : Monona 4.
R Norkotah 36.2: La Soda 4, Atlantic 23.4
R Nugget : 27.0: Frito-Lay 4. Snowden 20.6
Centennial R : 20.5: Shepody 3. Norwis 10.1
Sangre 3.8: R Norkotah 2. Superior 7.8
Ranger R 2.8: Atlantic 2. Norchip 6.3
: Kennebec 2. Katahdin 5.5
1D ht Monona 5.4
R Burbank 83.2 :: NY Somerset 4.2
Shepody 10.0 :: Norwis 16.9 Kennebec 4.2
Ranger R 2.6: Monona 16.7 Kanona 3.5

R Norkotah 2.0: Superior 14.6

: Atlantic 10.6
ME : Yukon Gold 7.8 R Burbank 61.1
R Burbank 15.9 : Snowden 6.9 Shepody 13.7
Superior 13.9: Castile 4.0 R Norkotah 11.8
Shepody 10.7: Sunrise 3.2 Ranger R 6.4

Ontario 10.3 : Kanona 3.1

Frito-Lay 7.9: Frito-Lay 1.7
Atlantic 7.7: Landglade 1.6 R Burbank 37.0
R Norkotah 7.3: Chieftain 1.2: Snowden 14.1
Snowden 4.6: Allegany 1.1 R Norkotah 13.6
Goldrush 4.5 :: Goldrush 11.3
Norwis 2.5 :: ND Norland 9.8
Katahdin 2.5 ::  & Burbank 29.7 Atlantic 6.9
Mainestay 2.4: Norchip 11.0 Superior 4.2

: Snowden 9.4

MI : Frito-Lay 7.5
Snowden 38.9 : Shepady 7.7 R Burbank 47.6
Atlantic 13.0: Norland 6.2 Shepody 8.2
Onoway 12.8 : Goldrush 4.6 R Norkotah 7.5
R Burbank 7.2: La Soda 4.5 Snowden 5.6
R Norkotah 5.9: Monona 3.5 Norland 2.8
Frito-Lay 5.7: Red Ruby 2.4 Atlantic 2.5
Superior 2.6: Pontiac 2.2 Goldrush 2.4
Norland 2.1: ND 2471-8 1.5 Ranger R 2.1
Goldrush 2.0 : R Norkotah 1.3 Frito-Lay 2.0
i Superior 1.9
MN 2: OR R Nugget 1.8
R Burbank 24.6 3: R Burbank Norchip : 1.6
Norland 19.1: Shepody Centennial R: 1.4
Norchip 4.1: R Norkotah Monona 1.2
Goldrush 9.6: Ranger R La Soda 0.8
Snowden 9.3 Snowden Norwis 0.8

1/ NASS conducts potato objective yield surveys in 11 States, accounting
All, producing areas of each

for 94 percent of U.S. fall production,
State are sampled in proportion to planted acreage.

Variety data

shown above are intended to provide information but are not designated
as official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board.

Crop Production
November 1995

Agricultural Statistics Board

A-34 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: U.S. sugarbeet production is expected to total 28.9 million tons.
a decrease of 10 percent from 1994. Area for harvest. at

1.42 million acres, is virtually unchanged from’the October “Crop Production"

report and down 1 percent from last year. The average yield, at 20.3 tons per

acre, iS 1.9 tons below last year’s yield.

A cool, wet spring delayed planting and slowed sugarbeet development. Unusually
hot summer weather stressed plants and increased irrigation requirements. Early
freezing temperatures in the Great Plains damaged leaves in some sugarbeet
fields. Favorable harvest weather over the Western and middle Great Plains
States allowed the sugarbeet harvest to advance ahead of normal. Despite some
delays from early season snows in the central States. about 90 percent of the
beets were lifted by early November. Harvest activity was delayed in the Great
Lakes region and northern Great Plains by precipitation. Warm weather in the
Ohio Valley was unsuitable for sugarbeet storage and slowed the start of the
harvest. Dry weather and root aphid problems in Michigan lowered yield
expectations.

Sugarcane: U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1995 is expected to

total 30.7 million tons, 1 percent above the October “Crop Report"
forecast, but 1 percent below 1994. Area for harvest, at 932,300 acres, was
virtually unchanged from last year. The forecasted yield. at 32.9 tons per
acre, is 0.1 ton below last year’s yield.

The Louisiana harvest was making excellent progress and was ahead of normal by
the first of November. Florida received significant precipitation during
October starting with Hurricane Opal that left Florida’s sugarcane region
soaked. The start of the sugarcane harvest in Florida was delayed by the wet
field conditions. Sugarcane growers in Florida planted when fields were dry but
poor stands may require replanting.

Florida Citrus: Many parts of the citrus belt were inundated by several very

hard rains in October. Hardest hit were the lower east coast,
lower interior, and the lower west coast. Trees stood in water for up to a week
in many groves before excess moisture could be pumped away. Caretakers also
disced and plowed groves to remove excessive moisture. Only isolated cases of
increased fruit drop were reported. At this time. fruit drop, splitting, and
brown rot are not a widespread problem. Very Vittle spraying and fertilizing
could be done due to wet conditions. Packing houses became very active with
increased movement of white and colored grapefruit: Navels, Ambersweet, and
Hamlin oranges; K-Early fruit; early tangerines; and tangelos. Processing
plants received packing house eliminations and some field run Hamlin oranges.
Qver 1.2 million boxes of early and mid-season oranges were harvested through
October. Navel movement stands at about 200 thousand boxes. About 1.9 million
boxes of colored grapefruit and almost 850 thousand boxes of white grapefruit
were harvested. Nearly 450 thousand boxes of early tangerines were picked to
date. Just under 75 thousand boxes of K-Early Citrus were moved by the end of
October and tangelo harvest just began as 15 thousand boxes were moved.

Texas Grapefruit: The 1995-96 Texas grapefruit forecast is 4.70 million boxes
(188,000 tons), down 6 percent from last month but up

1 percent from last year. The forecast declined from last month because cool

temperatures caused larger than anticipated bloom loss especially on mature

trees. New trees most likely will not produce enough fruit to offset the loss

from older trees.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1995 B-9 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Percentage Distributions by Row Width and Average
Row Width for Selected States, 1993-95

State : Number : le ‘Average
and : of : 30.5 :30.6- : 32.6- :34.6- :36.6- : 38.6- :40.6 & : Row
Year :Samples :or less: 32.5 : 34.5 : 36.5 : 38.5 : 40.5 :Greater: Width

: Number
IL 1993: 244 50.8 16.0 1.2 13.1 15.2 3.7 0.0 32.4
1994: 241 52.3 19.9 1.7 9.1 11.6 5.0 0.4 32.1
1995: 268 66.7 17.5 1.9 10.5 12.3 1.1 0.0 31.9
IN 1993: 166 63.3 19.3 3.0 6.0 8.4 0.0 0.90 31.2
1994: 158 69.7 13.9 0.0 8.2 6.3 1.9 0.0 31.2
1995: 175 59.4 21.2 0.6 11.4 6.3 1.1 0.0 31.4
IA 1993: 259 47.4 14.7 0.8 6.6 22.0 7.0 1.5 33.1
1994: 276 44.5 20.3 0.4 6.2 21.0 7.2 0.4 32.9
1995: 288 45.2 14.2 0.4 7.6 21.9 9.7 1.0 33.3
MI 1993: 79 69.5 21.5 2.5 2.5 11.4 1.3 1.3 31.5
1994: 79 65.8 22.8 1.3 5.1 2.5 2.5 0.0 30.8
1995: 75 72.0 17.3 2.7 1.3 2.7 2.7 1.3 30.8
MN 1993: 158 62.0 12.0 1.9 5.1 12.7 5.7 0.6 32.0
1994: 168 61.3 13.7 1.8 7.7 9.5 6.0 0.0 31.7
1995: 163 64.4 11.0 1.2 6.8 14.1 2.5 0.0 31.3
MO 1993: 86 36.0 29.1 2.3 9.3 16.3 5.8 1.2 32.8
1994: 112 45.4 30.4 0.9 6.3 12.5 4.5 0.0 31.9
1995: 101 53.4 26.7 1.0 3.0 12.9 3.0 0.0 31.8
NE 1993: 206 34.5 17.0 1.9 22.3 18.9 4.4 1.0 33.4
1994: 211 31.7 19.0 0.5 27.0 16.6 4.7 0.5 33.5
1995: 205 36.1 13.6 2.0 28.3 16.1 3.4 0.5 33.6
OH 1993: 133 66.1 15.8 3.7 2.3 6.0 3.8 2.3 31.6
1994: 127 55.9 26.0 0.8 5.5 9.4 1.6 0.8 31.5
1995: 132 56.1 25.8 4.5 2.3 8.3 1.5 1.5 31.5
SD 1993: 98 21.4 12.3 1.0 6.1 42.9 15.3 1.0 35.4
1994: 90 22.2 10.0 1.1 21.1 34.5 10.0 1.1 35.1
1995: 100 31.0 10.0 0.0 17.0 27.0 15.0 0.0 34.6
WI 1993: 112 25.9 17.9 5.4 16.0 22.3 10.7 1.8 34.0
1994: 115 30.4 17.4 3.5 10.4 26.1 9.6 2.6 34.1
1995: 110 36.4 12.7 2.7 8.2 23.6 14.6 1.8 34.0
1/  Spacings based on row measurements in sample plots selected for the
objective yield survey.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1995 A-29 NASS. USDA


Sorghum for Grain:

Area

and United States,

Production

Area Harvested

Harvested,

1994 and Forecasted November 1,

Yield,

Yield

and Production by State

1995

-- 1,000 Bushels --

1,000 Acres
AL 1/ 20 8
AR 245 185
co 170 170
GA 1/ 40 30
TL 180 170
KS 3,000 2.900
KY 1/ ll 21
LA 123 82
MS 70 4S
MO 550 490
NE 1,250 980
NM 180 195
NC 1/ 20 15
OK 280 300
sc i/ 8 8
SD 190 150
TTM / 30 1?
TX 2,600 2,450
US 8,967 8,216

7

0

0 18,
0 650
0 2,
0 17.
0 231.
0 1,
0 8.
0 5,
0 49,
0 122,
0 6,
0 1,
0 14,
0

0

0

0

900
375

000
820
000
012
364
250
500
500
840
100
000
320

350
640
400

320
12,580
5,610
1,140
13,260
165,300
1,890
5,330
3,150
37,240
52,920
6,435
750
13.500
280
5,250
1,479
137,200

1/ Yield estimates for current

Crop Producti
November 1995

on

year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans:
and United States,

Area Harvested

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
1994 and Forecasted November 1, 1995

Production

1994

State

1994 1995

1.000 Acres
AL 295 220
AR 3.400 3,400
DE 220 230
FL 1/ 42 28
GA 500 320
IL 9.430 9.650
IN 4,580 4,980
1A 8,770 9,250
KS 2,100 2,050
KY 1,130 1,130
LA 1,120 1,030
MD 550 540
MI 1,540 1,490
MN 5,600 5,800
MS 1.870 1,800
MO 4,560 4,550
NE 2,860 3,060
NJ 1/ 147 118
NC 1.350 1,050
ND 610 640
OH 3,990 4,030
OK 1/ 290 285
PA 1/ 315 315
sc 580 530
so 2,400 2,550
TN 1,050 1,080
TX 210 240
VA 520 490
WI 830 800
US : 60,859 61,656

25.
28.
22.
32.
24.
40.
40.
43.
26.
34,
25.
28.
39.
38.
25.
30.
31.
40.
23.
27.
41.
27.
44.
24.
27.
31.
27.
27.
43.

-- --- 1,000 Bushels --

0 9,145
0 115,600
0 8,030
0 1,302
0 15,500
0 429,065
0 215,260
0 442,885
0 73,500
0 42,375
0 31,920
0 19,525
0 56.980
0 224,000
0 57.035
0 173, 280
0 134,420
0 5,072
0 41,850
0 18,910
0 173,565
0 9.280
0 13,230
0 15,660
Q 91,200
0 38,325
0 7,035
0 16,640
0 36,105

5,060
85,000
4,600
896
7,680
386,000
194,220
407,000
51,250
39,550
25.750
13,500
58,110
226,200
41,400
136,500
100,980
4,720
24,150
17,920
157,170
7,695
13,860
12,720
73.950
33,480
6,000
13,230
34,400

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from

Crop Producti
November 1995

on

earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA