COTTON: PRODUCTION, BALES GINNED, SEASON AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS,
AND VALUE OF PRODUCTION 1979 AND 1980

PRODUCTION IN
: 480-LB
STATE : NET WEIGHT BALES

BALES GINNED AS
: REPORTED BY CENSUS 1/ :
(480-LB NET WEIGHT)

1,000 BALES 1,000 DOLLARS

COTTON, UPLAND

324 275 322,024 272,984 65.3 79.9 101,555 105,468
ARIZ 1,280 1,354 1,270,857 1,338,736 68.1 77.1 418,406 501,088
ARK : 606 444 607,447 445,586 65.3 77.1 189,945 164,316
CALIF : 3,408 3,109 3,418,300 3,123,267 72.5 81.1 1,185,984 1,210,272
FLA : 4.0 7.5 4/5,010  4/7,959 65.0 85.0 1,248 3,060
GA : 152 86 50,940 86,205 65.5 78.9 47,789 32,570
LA : 690 460 688, 982 458,403 64.0 77.9 211,968 172,003
MISS : 1,437 1,143 1,438,840 1,144,807 63.5 76.6 437,998 420,258
Mo : 157 177 154,842 174,642 62.4 72.7 47,025 61, 766
NEV : 1.5 1.2 4/ 4/ 68.0 80.0 490 461,
N MEX : 104 107 96,35) 102,187 68.5 80.0 34,195 4) ,088
Ne : 43 52 45,003 54,465 64.7 79.5 13,354 19,843
OKLA : 522 205 519,509 202,937 59.7 77.4 149,584 76,162
sc : 116 77 113,745 74,560 66.2 79.9 36,860 29,531
TENN : kA) 200 170,686 197,844 62.9 78.4 51,628 75,264
TEX : 5,515.0 3,320 5,519,326 3,326,613 55.7 69.7 1,474,490 1,110,739
VA : 2 +2 0 0 66.0 79.5 63 76
us : 14,530.7  11,017.9 14,521,862 17,011,195 63.1 76.1 4,402,582 4,023,965
COTTON, AMER-PIMA
RIZ”~— 67.0 72.3 66,668 72,238 103.0 108.0 32,482 37,480
CALIF : | 0 0 101.0 108.0 48 52
N MEX : 7.5 6.8 3,387 2,436 101.0 107.0 3,636 3,492
TEX : 24.0 25.0 28,160 29,356 100.0 111.0 11,520 - 13,320
us : 3 98.6 104.2 98,215 104,030 101.0 109.0 47,686 54,344
COTTON, ALL :
ALA : 324 275 322,024 272,984 65.3 79.9 101,555 105,468
ARIZ : 1,347.0 1,426.3 1,337,525 1,410,974 69.7 78.7 450,888 538,568
ARK : 606 607,447 445,586 65.3 77.1 189,945 164,316
CALIF : 3,408.1 3, 109. 1 3,418,300 3,123,267, 72.5 81.1 1,186,032 1,210,324
FLA : 4.0 7.5 4/5,010  4/7,959 65.0 85.0 1,248 3,060
GA : 152 86 T50,940 86,205 65.5 78.9 47,789 32,570
LA : 690 460 688,982 458,403 64.0 77.9 211,968 172,003
MISS 2 1,437 1,143 1,438,840 1,144,807 63.5 76.6 437,998 420,258
MO : 157 177 154,842 174,642 62.4 72.7 47,025 61,766
NEV : 1.5 1.2 4/ 4/ 68.0 80.0 490 461
N MEX : W445 113.8 99,738 104,623 70.7 81.6 37,831 44,580
NC : 43 52 45,003 54,465 64.7 79.5 13,354 19,843
OKLA : 522 205 §19,509 202,937 59.7. 77.4 149,584 76,162
SC : 116 77 113,745 74,560 66.2 79.9 36 ,860 29,531
TENN : wm 200 170,686 197,848 62.9 78.4 57.628 75,264
TEX : 5,539.0 3,345.0 5,547,486 3,355,969 55.9 70.0 1,486,010 1,124,059
63 76

VA : 2 2 0) 0 66.0 79.5

14,629.3 11,122.17 14,620, 077 11,116,225 63.4 76.4 4,450,268 4,078,309

1/ EQUIVALENT 480-LB NET WEIGHT BALE GINNED, NOT ADJUSTED FOR CROSS-: STATE MOVEMENT. 2/ — INCLUDES
FLLOWANCE FOR UNREDEEMED LOANS. 3/ AVERAGE TO APR 1, 1987 WITH NO ALLOWANCE FOR UNREDEEMED LOANS.
4/ FLA AND NEV COMBINED.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 198) 20 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT vs

RODUCTION

PRODUCTION 3
BOXES t TON EQUIVALENT
Pemewnnnwweeneeceneenoncewencnnemrewenccwcnecceweneceenseecens
AND 2 UTILIZED NDICATEDS UTILIZED tINDICATED

1976=79 & 1979=8u

STATE 21978979 8 1979-80

3 1,000 UNITS 27 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES,EARLY MID & NAVEL 3/3
ARIZ ast 700 850 900 26 32 34
CALIF 3 20,800 32,600 36,000 - 780 1,223 1,350
FLA 2 91,000 117,900 105,600 4,095 5,306 4,752
TEx 4st 4,300 2,300 2,600 183 98 110
us % 116/800 153,650 145,100 5,064 6,659 6,246
ORANGES, VALENCIA :
ARI? 3 24200 2.650 1,950 83 99 73
CALIF 3 16,500 27,000 27,000 619 1,012 1,012
FLA 3 73,000 88,800 63,000 3,285 3,996 2,385
TEX ? 2,100 1,730 1,800 89 73 7
ws 2 93,800 120, 180 93,750 4,076 5,180 3,997
ALL ORANGES. 3
ARIZ : 2,900 3,500 2,850 109 131 107
CALIF 3 37,300 59,600 63,000 1,399 2,235 2,362
FLA 3 164,006 206,700 168,600 7,380 9,302 7,587
TEX 3 6,400 4,030 4,400 272 {71 187
us £ 210,600 273,830 238,850 9,160 11,839 10,243
TEMPLES 3
FLA 3 4,700 6,900 3,600 212 270 162
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE SEEULESS
FLA 2 29,400 31,100 28,700 1,250 1,322 1,220
GRAPEFRUIT, PINK SEEDLESS
2 13-300 15,800 14,500 565 e711 616
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT 3
FLA : 7,300 74900 7,300 310 336 310
ALL GRAPEFRUIT &
ARIZ 3 2,250 3,000 3,000 72 96 %
CALIF z
DESERT 3 3,260 4,200 3,600 104 134 “122
OTHER AREAS : 2,870 3,300 3,500 96 aii a7
TOTAL 3 6,130 7,500 7,300 200 2as 239
FLA 2  50,00n $4,800 50,500 2,125 2,329 2,196
TEX 2 9,900 74900 6,800 360 316 272
us 3 67,360 73,200 67,600 2,757 2,986 2,753
TANGERINES 3
ARIZ 3 450 750 800 17 26 30
CALIF ari 1,450 1,650 1,700 5a 62 64
FLA 3 3,500 3,900 3,000 166 185 143
us 3 5,400 6,300 5,500 237 275 237
LEMANS ?
ARIZ 3 5,500 3,050 7,000 209 116 266
CALIF 3 14,100 17,700 24,000 536 673 912
us 2 19,600 20,750 31,000 7aS 789 1,178
TANGELOS :
FLA 4,200 67400 4,900 189 288

1/ THE CYUP YEAR BEGINS HITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENUS WITH YEak HARVEST IS COMPLETED,

2/ NET LAS PER BOX? OKANGES*CALIF & ARIZ*75,FLA=90,
TEX=857 GRAPEFRUIT@CALIF DESERT & ARIZ~64, CALIF
OTHER@67, FLAS65, TEX-803 LEMONS=763 TANGELOS &
TEMPLES=903 TANGERINES@ CALIF & ARI2=75, FLAW95.

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA, EARLY AND MINSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEXAS,

4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDS


INDEX

PAGE

ALMONDS ccccccccccccccccccnecccccsscasececsseceneerensssracsseseens 13

eee ree ere ree eee eee reece ess 13

BANANAS «covccececevecs

CITRUS FRUIT crcccccccccvcccscccccrscvececcserecessscseeeseevessnes 14

COTTON vocccccvcccvcccccvcccccccsccscuecescsccscccsascsssssovscsses 19
HAY STOCKS coccccccccevcncccccccsccceneccscnasssccsesesssessesesess 12
PAPAYAS cccccccccnccccccvcccestecsestvcceserassserseessssseeressess 13

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAPS ...ceccccccevccsccereccccnvce 3
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION TABLE ..ccsvccceccccccecvcccescce 12

PEACHES cscccccscccccsccccccensccccccccnecssecssesessesecnsseeesees 15

POTATOES, SPRING .cccectccscecsccececscecsetsseccscecectscesecceses 15
TARO ..ecseee csc cucceccenceceecescescecseceessectecseccessecacesecs 13
TOBACCO BY STATES .cccececcecscecccctcccscessscectacecsececsacesees 16
TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE sesesccecccscccccceccerccecsstecsessesecs V7
US SUMMARY .cccececscereccccessecssevcstececscececscetecseeseesees 2

WHEAT, BY CLASSES .cccccccccccrccccccevccccccvccsveceecsscesessvene i

WINTER WHEAT seenvceetecebeneteetssecessescesessessscsceesceseveess 11

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 24 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


Grain sorghum planting reached northward into Nebraska and parts of South Dakota, although
most activity centered in southern areas. Planting in Texas was 71% finished by May 3, 9 points
ahead of normal. .

Rice seeding advanced to 68% by May 3, 6 points ahead of a year ago. Planting ranged from
20% complete in California to 93% in Texas.

Soybean planting was just getting underway by the end of the month. Most major producing
States had some acreage seeded by May 3, but most planting activity centered {n the South.

WINTER WHEAT: Production of winter wheat {s forecast at a record high 2.08 billion bushels (56.6

million metric tons) based on May 1 conditions. This is 10 percent more than the
previous record high of 1.89 billion bushels (51.5 million metric tons) set last year, and 30
percent more than two years ago. Record high acreage and the third highest yteld both contrtbut-
ed to the record production forecast for 1981. The current production is 5 percent more than
the December 1, 1980 forecast. Farmers expect to harvest more acres for grain and yield
prospects have improved in many areas since December.

Yield per harvested acre this year is forecast at 36.0 bushels per acre, compared with 36.8
bushels last year, and the record high 36.9 bushels per acre two years ago.

Producers expect to harvest 57.8 million acres (23.4 million hectares) for grain, 12 percent
more than last year and 33 percent more than two years ago. Indicated acres for harvest are 90
percent of the planted acres; last year, farmers harvested 89 percent of the planted acres.

Winter wheat was greening as far north as Montana by the end of March. Wind damage and
winterkil] appeared light as plants greened. By the end of April, winter wheat rated fair to
mostly good in all major producing areas. In Kansas, development was 2 weeks ahead of average
with heading 45 percent complete, compared with a 10 percent average. Small grains in Texas
benefited greatly from rains near the end of April, although some dryland fields still had not
recovered from earlier mofsture shortages. Scattered fields were plowed up or grazed out.
Early planted fields in Arizona were maturing rapidly, and harvesting was expected to get
underway soon. In the northern Plains, wheat was in good condition but deterforating because of
drought stress. By the beginning of May, winter wheat was 37 percent headed in the 15 major
Producing States, compared with 8 percent last year.

U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION

BILLION BUSHELS
3a
QURUM WHEAT 1
OTHER SPRING r
WHEAT
WINTER WHEAT
LS
Leo
as rf
ae
ma 72 3 mm mS 7% 7 ms n c ) Ble

SPRING WHEAT FORECAST JULY 0)

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 5 . CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


ALA. : 122 99 5 94 7 5 4.1 4.3
ARIZ ¢ 530 583 326 449 204 134 6.3 6.5
ARK : 215 181 200 Mm 15 10 9.8 9.1
CALIF 1,335 1,270 930 7,105 405 165 18.0 18.3
FLA : 1.6 2.9 1.5 2. a a 4/1 afi
GA H 54 30 50 25 4 5 2.4 2.7
: 260 176 253 168 7 8 5.4 7.4
MISS : 553 439 530 420 23 19 16.1 14.4
MO H 62 70 57 65 5 § 4.3 3.9
NEV : 6 5 -6 5 0 0 4/ 4/
N MEX 3 44 45 40 40 4 5 “2.3 “2.1
NC H 15 19 13 7 2 2 6 -6
OKLA : 209 82 201 74 8 8 7.5 7.6
$c 2 42 30 39 23 3 2 1.3 1.1
TENN : a 82 66 76 5 6 3.9 4.2
TEX 2 2,264 1,361 1,957 1,222 307 139 108.4 136.4
VA : I J J J 4 4
us : 5,778.3 4,470.5 4,779.2 3,957.4 999.1 513.1 190.5 218.7

COTTONSEED: SEASON AVERAGE PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS, VALUE OF PRODUCTION, AND
VALUE OF SALES TO OIL MILLS, 1979 AND 1980 CROPS 1/

1,000 DOLLARS

118.00 14,152 W682 13,340 Vi ,092

5/ 58,300 5/ 35,860 5/
129.00 28,595 23,349 26,600 22,059
141.00 166,875 179,070 116,250 155,805
125.00 192 363 180 350
125.00 5,670 3,750 5,250 3,125
128.00 34,580 22,528 33,649 21,504
132.00 73,549 57,948 70,490 55,440
124.00 7,998 8,680 7,353 8,060
128.00 66 64 66 64
124.00 5,060 5,580 4,600 4,960
117.00 1,860 2,223 1,612 1,989
127.00 23,826 10,414 22,914 9,398
120.00 4,956 3,600 4,602 + 3,360
128.00 9,301 10,496 8,646 9,728
119.00 262,624 161,959 227,012 145,418
130.00 13 13 13 13

6/576,926 578,437 6/510, 286

1/ 1980 CROP PRELIMINARY. 2/ INCLUDES PLANTING SEED, EXPORTS, INTER-FARM SALES, SHRINKAGE,
TOSSES AND OTHER USES. 3/ INCLUDED IN “ OTHER” FARM DISPOSITION. PLANTING SEED FROM PREVIOUS
YEARS’ CROP. 4/ FLA, VA, AND NEV COMBINED. 5/ NOT AVAILABLE BECAUSE PRICES FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
PORTION OF PRODUCTION REMAINS UNSETTLED. 6/ -0 S AVERAGE PRICE USED FOR ARIZ TO DETERMINE U S
VALUES.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF TOBACCO, BY STATES, 1980 CROP YEAR, PERCENT BY MONTHS

ALA : ou 44 42 3
FLA : 34 47 19
GA > 22 40 33 5
NC 4 30 30 29 7
sc 6 34 40 20
vA 24 37 33 6
CLASS - FIRE - CURED:
KY : 22 42 36
TENN : 8 42 50

VA : 66 26 8
CLASS - AIR-CURED =
IND

vy MD SALES ARE NOT COMPLETE FOR THE 1980 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 23 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA



- - *O1HO
NI NMOUS S3dAl YIONIG SAQNTONI /E “LB6L “Y AWW HONOWHL SITWS NOILONY 4O JOVUIAY. FHL SONNOd U3d SLN3D B°69L L¥ GJLvNWAT /Z “Le6l ‘ZL ONY ‘NOLLINGOUE
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S3dAL UWOID TV
gee 'ey 920‘ ve 0°086 0°0se 2S"y £00'y Elstl zevil 066°2 0222 Sa
€6S°EL £916 07086 0-058 “eefL B20't Sev‘ orl 0v6 OLL SS¥H
eee ‘OF £98'#2 0°086 0°08 cele S26°2 ors" t 00s‘ t os0°z 0s6"L NNO?
NMOUS-3OVHS AFTIVA NNOD ‘LO 3dAL
: ‘ Wadd UM HYDID “9 SS¥TI
696‘9E L6L*EE orlel 6°02 l9z‘e2 L5y'Le 056° L Le‘ O6rbL SS-LS W101
999° le 60e°62 orsat Orel 91E*s2 0g0's2 8161 2¥6°1 00821 9-5 ‘WLOL
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629 ser Or tel o°ozt Lop o00'z ose" oz SSW
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= AWTVOVOUE ATTIVA NNOD “LS 3dA1
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9€0" be styol 0°68 $"eL 080° Zz 9v9°6L (g8°L 25h Op oh oos*2i JE pyr kb W1OL
Lvs‘? 169° L o°LoL 0°28 oge*2 os6*t 002" 00s" | ort ooe*L /€_OtHO
SAdAL ATVWA IAVIN-O1HO ‘“YO-ZP JdAL
ogy" tz toe‘2t o-28 - Oe 00 ‘pz 969°L1 0061 oas‘L o00%eL 02" Lt Yd
4VAI0IRS Vd ‘Le IdAL
: 4314 BWOID “y SsvT9
geo ie pss"eh S°92b OT ULL 929°9L LUL*OL gueL ecg" 069°6 LE-SE WLOL
tog als Leet 9°06 OE ols olo't $50°L O6E YA
A138 GFUNI“NNS WA “LE AdAL
ave'y ges‘ $°92k e°Sol 8z8‘e sse‘p Opeth g9‘L o02'z wet)
ATG UIATY N9RYD “9G BdAL
069°SL ose‘el "921 eres 206°21 264‘ Lb Leet 19951 ool‘ ‘ sf
uste ssote L°9EL L°6LL 2e8°2 egs*z orci l $65°L 009% 009° WNL
6ta’tL S6€°OL S°E2L sel 0LS°6 062°6 Ove'L o89*t 00g 's o0s*s .
1738 UaNINS INO ‘SE IAL
GRUNI-MTY Wud “BE SSv7O
suvTiod 000° L S1N39 Sannod 000° L sannod S34OV

0861 = 6461

NOILONGOUd

> 6261 + 086L = 6461

NOILINGOUd 40 3NTWA SUBNUW4 AG O3ATZIIN
+ @1 Wad 391d AV NOSW3S:

. (G3NNILNOD) 3dAL ONY SSW19 Ad ODIVEOL

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, .USOA

18

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1987


COTTON, 1980 REVISED: United States cotton production totaled 11.1 miltion bales in 1980, 24

_ percent less than in 1979, but 2 percent above 1978 production. Upland
cotton accounted for 11.0 mil}ion bales and American-Pima 104 thousand bales. The decline in
production from 1979 was a result of lower yields in all States except Arizona, Florida and New
Mexico, which more than offset a 3 percent increase in harvested acres. The United States
average yield per acre was 404 pounds, 143 less than the record high 547 pounds in 1979.
Planting was completed on schedule in most areas but cool weather during May retarded
development of cotton plants in the southeastern and western States. After mid-June, non-
irrigated cotton was frequently under stress from drought and high temperatures throughout most
of the producing belt. Conditions were extremely severe {in the Plains of Texas and Ok?ahoma
resulting in large acreages being abandoned. Growers in Arizona and California delayed harvest
as the extended growing season promoted development of the top crop.

Planted acreage in 1980 totaled 14.5 million acres (5.88 million hectares), 4 percent more
than in 1979. Abandonment amounted to 9.1 percent of the planted acreage resulting in a
harvested acreage of 13.2 million acres (5.35 million hectares). Cottonseed production totaled
4.47 mittion tons (4.06 million metric tons) compared with 5.78 million tons (5.24 million
metric tons) fn 1979.

The Bureau of the Census reported 10,824,242 running bales ginned from the 1980 crop, 24
percent less than in 1979. Ginnings totaled 11,115,225 equivalent 480-pound net weight bales.

The preliminary 1980 season average price for lint is 76.4 cents per pound, up 13.0 cents
from the 1979 season average price. Average price for cottonseed was $129.00 per ton in 1980
compared with $121.00 for the 1979 crop. Value of lint and seed for the 1980 crop totaled $4.66

billion, 10 percent below 1979.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1987 10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


CITRUS HARVEST AND UTILIZATION: By May 1, there were 173 million boxes of oranges harvested or
72 percent of the crop, compared with 69 percent on May 1,
1980. Processors had used 82 percent of the oranges harvested by May 1 this year, the same
percentage as a year earlier.

Grapefruit harvest was 88 percent complete by May 1 compared with 86 percent on the same
date last year. Processors had used 62 percent of the total crop harvested to May 1 compared
with 63 percent of that harvested to May 1 last year.

_ Lemon harvest was 77 percent complete on May 1 compared with 71 percent on May 1, 1980.
Processors had used 66 percent of the crop harvested by May 1? this year, compared with 50
percent as of the same date last year.

CITRUS CROP - HARVEST AND UTILIZATION TO MAY 1

1979-80
~— UTILIZATION REMAINING: ‘UTILIZATION: REMAINING.
# HARVEST §
THOUSAND BOXES

FOR
: HARVEST

ORANGES : 33,918 155,723 189,641 84,189 31,083 «141,602 172,685 66,165
GRAPEFRUIT : 23,418 39,355 62,773 10,427 22,844 36,697 59,541 8,059
LEMONS 7,370 7,348 «14,718 6,032 8,002 15,821 23,823 7,177

GRAPEFRUIT: U.S. grapefruit production is placed at 67.6 million boxes (2.50 million metric
“~~ tons), up fractionally from last month's forecast but down 8 percent from last
season.

The Florida forecast is now 50.5 million boxes, up 1 percent from Tast month but 8 percent
less than the 1979-80 crop. As of May 1 harvest was 96 percent complete compared with 95 percent
a year ago. Picking is-limited to the lower east coast as all other areas are complete. Groves
in all areas are dry and in need of rain. This past month was the driest April in recent years
and trrigation water supplies are getting Tow.

The Texas crop is placed at 6.80 million boxes, down 3 percent from last month's forecast
and 14 percent below last season. Harvest was virtually complete by May 1. Temperatures have
been mild and trees are in excellent condition. Recent rains have improved moisture supplies.

Caltfornia prospects, at 7.30 million boxes, are unchanged from April 1 but 3 percent below
last season. Harvest of Desert Valley grapefruit is now over one-half complete while picking in
other areas is just underway. Fruit size is good and quality is excellent. The Arizona crop
forecast continues at 3.00 million boxes, the same as harvested in 1979-80. Harvest was 70 per-
cent complete as of May 1.

Changes in U.S. grapefruit production between the May 1 forecast and final production have
averaged 1.25 million boxes over the past 10 seasons, ranging from 260 thousand boxes in 1970-71
to 2.10 million boxes in 1976-77.

LEMONS: The U.S. lemon crop is expected to total 31.0 million boxes (1.07 million metric tons),

up 2 percent from last month's estimate and 49 percent higher than last season's
output. The production forecast for California is now 24.0 million boxes, up 2 percent from the
April 1 forecast and 36 percent above last season. Picking is active in southern coastal areas
and the San Joaquin Valley, and is virtually complete in desert areas. The Arizona crop
forecast continues at 7.00 million boxes, 130 percent more than the small crop of 3.05 million
boxes harvested last season. Harvest is complete.

TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop is estimated at 4.90 million boxes (200 thousand metric

tons), 2 percent less than the April 1 forecast and 23 percent below the 1979-80
season. Harvest is complete and updated marketing data were the basis for revising the estimate.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA



RELIABILITY OF MAY ? WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST

The winter wheat production forecast in this report {s based on mail and objective yield
surveys. conducted just prior to May 1. The mail surveys provided information on abandonment to
date and condition of the crop which was used to estimate acres for harvest. Yield estimates are
based on counts and measurements in a probability sample of wheat fields and on the condition of
the crop as reported by farmers. Both surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors
common to al) surveys. This production forecast is. also subject to change due to growing
conditions that may affect the crop after May 1.

“To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 winter wheat production forecast,
the “Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This
4s done by expressing the deviation between the May 1 production forecast and the final estimate
as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the
1961-1980 twenty-year period; the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean
Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected errors in the current
forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this
year’s forecast are not different from those influencing recent year forecasts.

The “Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 winter wheat production forecast is 6.7 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 2.08 billion
bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 6.7 percent or approximately
139 million bushels. Chances are 9 out 10 (90 percent confidence Tevel) that the difference
will not exceed 11.6 percent or approximately 241 million bushels. Differences between the May 7
winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged
105 million bushels, ranging from 4 million in 1973 to 237 million bushels in 1974. The May 1
forecast was below the final estimate in 7 years and above in 3 years.

ORANGES: The Nation's orange crop 1s forecast at 239 million boxes (9.29 million metric tons),
~ down 2 percent from last month's forecast and 13 percent less than the 1979-80 season.

Production in Florida is placed at 169 million boxes, 2 percent less than the Apri? 1
forecast and 18 percent below last season's total. With harvest of Florida's early and
mid-season varieties complete, the production estimate fs 106 million boxes, 10 percent below
the 1979-80 crop. The Valencia crop is now forecast at 63.0 million boxes, down 5 percent from
Yast month and 29 percent below the 1979-80 production. Harvest of Valencias, 51 percent
complete by May 1, was stow during April because of higher than normal acid tevels. -

Condition of new crop fruit and amount of new growth varies for both types of oranges
depending on location and frequency of irrigation. Citrus groves continue dry and in need of
rain.

Crop prospects for all oranges in California, at 63.0 million boxes, are down 2 percent from
Jast month's forecast but 6 percent above last season. The Navel orange crop is now forecast at
a@ record level of 36.0 million boxes, down 3 percent from April 1 but 10 percent above the
previous record crop harvested in the 1979-80 season. As of May 1, 80 percent of California's
Navel crop expected to be utilized had been harvested. California's Valencia crop forecast
continues unchanged at 27.0 million boxes, the same as last season. Harvest is in the initial
stages.

Texas orange production, forecast at 4.40 million boxes, is 9 percent above the 1979-80
season with harvest virtually complete. The Arizona all orange forecast {s 2.85 million boxes,
7 percent below the April 1 forecast and 19 percent tess than harvested last season. Arizona's
orange harvest is 70 percent complete.

Changes in U.S. orange production between the May 1 forecast and final production have
averaged 4.34 million boxes over the past 10 seasons, ranging from 1.21 million boxes in 1973-74
to 11.6 million boxes in 1976-77.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1980-81 crop projection for the Florida FCO) yield
is estimated at 1.20 gallons per box at 43.4 degree
brix equivalent. The final yield for the 1979-80 crop was 1.39 gallons per box at 43.4 degrees
equivalent.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1987 6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


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NO1109



PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: The May 1 pasture and range feed condition for the 48 contiguous States

was 79 percent, 1 point below both last year and the 1970-79 average
for the date.” Conditions were less favorable than a year ago in 30 States, better in 14 and
equal to last year in 4 States. Compared with last month, conditions generally improved or
remained the same fn all States except California, Florida, Idaho, Oregon and Washington.
However, conditions in the aforementioned Western States continued in the good to excellent
range. The western part of the Dakotas and the eastern portion of Montana continue to be
plagued with very dry conditions. The average condition in North Dakota is 47 percent compared
with 48 percent last year and the ten-year average of 70 percent. South Dakota's condition, at
52 percent, fs off 18 points from a year ago and Montana, at 63 percent, is off 5 points. Rain
was received over much of the eastern half of the Nation during April and on May 1 conditions in
all States east of the Mississippi except Florida, Georgia and South Carolina were in the good
to excellent range. Range and pasture conditions across Texas continued to improve during April
as adequate moisture and warm temperatures promoted good growth of grasses.

HAY STOCKS ON FARMS: May 1 stocks of hay on farms totaled 25.5 million tons (23.1 million metric

tons), 24 percent below last year's record high and 15 percent below May 1,
1979. Disappearance during the January - Apri? period was 66.5 million tons (60.3 million
metric tons), 11 percent less than during the comparable period a year earlier.

TOBACCO 1980 REVISED: Production of atl tobacco in the U.S. in 1980 totaled 1.78 billion pounds

(807 thousand metric tons), 17 percent above 1979's 1.53 billion pounds
(692 thousand metric tons). Area harvested, at 915 thousand acres (370 thousand hectares), rose
87 thousand acres from the 827 thousand acres (335 thousand hectares) harvested in 1979. Yield
averaged 1945 pounds per acre compared with 1845 pounds per acre the previous year.

Flue-cured production at 1.09 billion pounds (493 thousand metric tons) climbed 15 percent
above the 946 million pounds (429 thousand metric tons) harvested in 1979. Harvested acreage of
552 thousand acres (223 thousand hectares) was 10 percent larger than 1979. Yield rose to 1968
pounds per acre from 1979's ten year low of 1881 pounds per acre.

Burley production fs placed at 558 million pounds (253 thousand metric tons), 25 percent
above The 1879 crop The 1980 crop was produced on 277 thousand acres (112 thousand hectares)
compared with 238 thousand acres: (96.4 thousand hectares) the previous year. Yield per acre at
2013 pounds increased 140 pounds from 1979.

Fire-cured production fell 20 percent from the previous year to 36.3 million pounds (16.5
thousand metric tons). Production was off in all States with Virginia registering the largest
percentage decline 33--percent. Yield averaged 1559 pounds per acre, 115 pounds less than in
979. Area harvested was down 3630 acres.

Southern Maryland produced 22.6 million pounds (10.2 thousand metric tons) of tobacco, 2
percent above 155- ‘An increase in acres harvested more than offset a reduction in yield per
harvested acre. Auction sales for the 1980 crop opened in March 1981 and will close in May.
Revisions if any will be published in the August Crop Production Report.

Dark _atr-cured producers grew 16.6 million pounds (7540 metric tons) of tobacco, 1 percent
fewer pounds than in 1979. Acreage harvested was 5 percent below a year earlier. Yield
averaged 1716 pounds per acre compared with 1633 pounds per acre in 1979.

Cigar-filler growers produced 27.1 mfllion pounds (12.3 thousand metric tons) on 14.4
thousand acres (5830 hectares). The 1979 crop totaled 19.6 million pounds (8910 metric tons)
and was harvested from 12.5 thousand acres (5060 hectares).

Cigar-binder production is estimated at 28.3 million pounds (12.8 thousand metric tons), 3
percent above 1979's production of 27.5 million pounds (12.5 thousand metric tons). Yield per
acre was up 39 pounds and acreage increased 120 acres from 1979.

Cigar-wrapper output totaled 4.52 million pounds (2050 metric tons), 13 percent above 1979.
Acreage was up TO percent and yteld per harvested acre increased 41 pounds from a year earlier.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1987 9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, -USDA


+ lee

Crop
Reporting

CROP PRODUCTION see

Released: May 11, 1981 Economics and
3:00 P.M. ET Statistics Service

U.S. Department
of Agriculture

Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

WINTER \HEAT production is forecast at a record high 2.08 billion bushels
156.6 million metric tons), as of May 1, 10 percent more than last year's
production of 1.89 billion bushels (51.5 million metric tons). The 90 per-
cent confidence interval for this production forecast is 1.84 to 2.32 bil-
lion bushels.

CITRUS production -- forecast at 14.8 million tons (13.4 million metric tons)
=- is 1 percent below last month's forecast and 10 percent less than last
season.

ORANGE production is forecast at 239 million boxes (9.29 million metric tons), —
down 2 percent from last month's forecast and 13 percent less than the
1979-80. season. As of May 1, 72 percent of the U.S. orange crop had been
harvested.

GRAPEFRUIT production is forecast at 67.6 million boxes (2.50 million metric
tons), up fractionally from the April 1 forecast but down 8 percent from
Jast season. By the Ist of May, 88 percent of the crop had been picked.

LEMON production for California and Arizona is expected to total a record 31.0
million boxes (1.07 million metric tons), up 2 percent from last month's
estimate and 49 percent higher than last season's output. Lemon harvest
was 77 percent complete on May 1.

PEACH production in the nine Southern States is forecast at 657 million pounds
{298 thousand metric tons), 11 percent more than last year.

SPRING POTATO production is forecast at 20.6 million cwt (934 thousand metric
tons), down 2 percent from April 1 but 21 percent above last year's record
Tow production.

CrPr 2-2 (5-81) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


HAY STOCKS ON FARMS - MAY 1

1,000 TONS

216 164
38 43
80 31
108 4
1,329 1,389
131 89
1,526 479
905 502
14 440
360 723
987 795
4 4
8 46
2,801 2,036
566 406
1,641 993
304 453
220 248
480 325
424 578
172 156
3,767 2,760
489 592
33,346

t AVERAGE ¢ 1981
2 1970079
. : PERCERT 3 PERCENT

ALA zat 82 : 79 87 a
ARIZ 3 7 7a : a7 7 97
ARK 2 Ba Re 2 83 a7 83
CALIF 74 93 : 70 76 oo
coLo : 74 be 3 65 86 66
cown = 8B 7 3 86 1 81
veL 2 86 92 3 70 48 a7
FLA : 70 Ba 2 86 88 92
GA 2 BO Br 2 79 72 14
TOAHO == = 60 89 : a1 95 94
TLL : 87 a6 : 84 aS a7
INO + 6A a7 2 Ba 98 95
Towa t BL al t ao. a3 m1
KANS. z a3 65 : 16 70 Se
ny 2 BR BB 3 8h ag 39
ua t 80 aR 3 70 59 9
MAINE 3 87 oA z 76 or be
TMp 3 BR “9 : a7 97 7
MASS 2 AB 96 : a4 93 85
“MICH 3 Bh aT z ao 8B a7
MINN 3 AL AS : 7 Ba aS
MIss 3 BB aa ‘ 84 17 88
wor 2 68 63 : 81 8a m1
MONT 2-79 6a 3 :

NESR 82 bb 2 80 80 79

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, SY ANU OVER ¢ POOR TO FAIR 65-795 VERY POOR, 50-643 SEVERE

DROUGHT, 359497 EXTREME NKOUGHT, UNDER 35,

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 198] 12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT

AREA HARVESTED

PRODUCTION

: IND
1980 ¢ 1981

IND
19AL

1980 %

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA 145 235 450 26.0 24,5 5,758 11,700
APIZ, $5 60 48 7a,0 80.0 4,800 3,648
ARK : 420 820 1,585 35.0 34.0 31,160 58,645
CALIF 785 1,950 1,250 79.0 14,0 77,700 95,000
coLo : 2,600 3,350 34100 26.0 32.0 107,200 86,800
DEL : rst 27 40 34.0 40,0 1,980 1,480
GA 2 175 600 ars 35.0 33.0 1 24,500
TOAHO ot 850 910 a20 42,0 57.0 51,870 454920
Tt 2 1,250 14570 1,760 43.0 48,0 75,360 69,080
IND 3 945 1,100 1,350 47.0 99,0 53,900 67,500
TOwA t 60 9 110 37.0 34.0 3,496 4,070
KANS t 19,800 12,000 12,900 38,0 35.0 a20,000 412,800
Ky 2 290 350 590 38.0 39.5 13,825 23,600
LA : 26 oT 170 24.0 26.0 1,876 $,100
MU : 90 7 129 37.0 38,0 3,686 4,773
MICH : 735 800 820 43,0 a4 35,200 35,260
MINN z 51 69 420 35,0 34,0 2,346 4,080
mISS : 415 250 425 32.0 31.0 7,750 14,050
MO 3 1,600 2,070 2,950 44,0 43,0 89,010 129,800
MONT : 2,250 2,150 2,350 25.9 25.5 $4,825 68,150
NEBR : 2,550 2,950 3,nS0 34.0 38.0 112,100 109,600
NEV t it 12 13 74.0 05.0 7380 645
nJ : ay a3 54 36.0 93.0 1,849 2.214
NMEX 3 a10 500 aa 22.0 21.0 10,500 A, 800
NY 3 160 150 166 41.0 49.0 6,000 6,400
NC t 210 300 aos 36.0 35.0 10,500 12,555
N MAK 120 70 110 22.0 15.0 1,050 2,530
OHIO : 1,320 14370 1,520 4a, 49.0 63,360 ’ 60,560
OKLA : 5.700 6,500 6,800 3a,a 30.0 216,600 195,000 197,200
OREG 1,000 1,200 14130 46.0 60.0 48,000 72,000 65,540
PA 235 250 250 31.0 37.0 7,285 9,250 8,250
sc 100 192 300 33.0 36.0 3,300 6,912 8,700
8 DAK 550 asa 16100 19.0 22.0 22.0 10,450 20,900 24,200
TEAN 250 350 520 34,0 38.0 39,0 8,500 13,309 20,260
TEX 4,600 5,200 6,400 30,0 25.0 28.0 138,000 130,000 179,200
UTAR 2a2 eae 233 aaa 3160 30,0 5,808 7,502 6,990
va 180 246 370 35.0 37.9 36.0 6,300 10,582 13,320
WAS 2e200 2,790 2,700 43.0 52.0 51.0 94,609 143,000 137,700
w va 10 9 10 34.0 38.0 33.0 340 3a2 330
wis 3A Bh 93 43.0 41.5 44.0 1,634 3,652 4,092
wo 267 295 275 22.0 28.0 25.0 5,876 8,200 6,875
us 43,427 51,374 97,775 36,9 36,8 36.0 $,601,234 1,891,251 2,078,137

WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

HARD SOFT
RED RED WHITE

3 1,000 BUSHELS

1978 z 829,908 186,920 203,618 379,694 133,326 40,056 1,775,524

1979 3 bp 088,918 316,698 195,618 362,891 106,654 63,281 2,134,660

1960 : 1,169,811 427,530 areas 311,226 108,395 58.794 2,369,666
t 261.6

241,454 575,070

Vv DT Y 1, 1981. ASS EST ED E Y
DATA AT THE STATE LEVEL. THE CLASS PERCENTAGES ARE ADJUSTED AS DATA BECOME
AVAILABLE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY OCCUR BEGINNING WITH THE JUNE REPORT.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 nv CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA



TANGERINES: The U.S. tangerine crop is set at 5.50 million boxes (215 thousand metric tons), 13
~— percent less than harvested in 1979-80. Harvest is complete in all States.

TEMPLES: Florfda’s temple crop fs estimated at 3.60 million boxes (147 thousand metric tons),
unchanged from last month but 40 percent betow the 1979-80 production. Harvest is now
complete.

PAPAYAS: Fresh papaya production in Hawaii fs forecast at 4.80 million pounds (2180 metric tons)

for May, down 9 percent from April. Heavy fresh production is expected this summer
with monthly output to top the 5.00 million pound mark for the next three months. June's fore-
cast of 5.61 million pounds (2540 metric tons) will be the largest fresh output since October
1978.

Record fresh papaya production continued in April with output estimated at 5.25 million
pounds (2380 metric tons), 48 percent more than the previous April high set in 1977. Estimated
cumulative fresh production through April has 1981's total nearly double that of 1980. Of the
total area in crop during April, 66 percent or 2040 acres (830 hectares) was harvested.

PEACHES: The first forecast of peach production in the nine Southern States for 198] is placed

at 657 million pounds (298 thousand metric tons), 11 percent above last year's produc-
tion and 3 percent higher than the 1979 crop. The peach crop in these States is sold predomi-
nantly for fresh market and normally accounts for well over one-third of the U.S. fresh peach
utilization.

Larger crops are expected this year in all nine Southern States except North Carolina. South
Carolina at 370 million pounds is up 4 percent from last year due to an excellent fruit set in
nearly all areas. Georgia prospects are also excellent with the crop forecast at 135 million
pounds, 13 percent above 1980. Prospects for Alabama, Arkansas and Texas are much improved from
a year ago.

ALMONDS: The first forecast for the 1981 California almond crop is 380 million pounds (172
thousand metric tons) (shelled basis), 18 percent above Jast year's production.
Weather conditions were generally favorable during bloom except for a period of rain occurring at
the end of the Nonpareil. bloom. Most areas of the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys expect
better crops than last year. .

POTATOES: - Spring potato production in the U.S. is forecast at 20.6 million cwt (934 thousand
metric tons), 2 percent below last month's forecast but 21 percent above last year's
record low production. Compared with Tast month, yield prospects slipped 6 cwt to 263 cwt per
acre due to reduced yields in California and North Carolina. However, this would still be the
highest yield of record. It is 28 cwt above last year and 8 cwt above the previous record high
set in 1979. Acreage intended for harvest, at 78.4 thousand acres (31.7 thousand hectares), is
unchanged from last month and ts 8 percent above the record low acreage harvested last year.

Production in California is forecast at 10.3 million cwt, down 2 percent from April 1, but
17 percent above 1980. Digging of California's spring crop is well underway. Fields which were
harvested early produced smaller potatoes than did fields harvested later. Some fields have.
also been damaged slightly by hail. Overall, the crop is making excellent progress although
cooler weather during April has slowed maturity somewhat.

The forecast for the Hastings area of Florida remains at 5.04 million cwt, 44 percent above
the 1980 spring crop. Harvest was underway by the latter part of April with good volume being
shipped by the last week of the month. Harvest should increase rapidly into May and continue
heavy until late June. Early harvest size, quality and yields have been good. .

Dry weather and frost damage since April 1 reduced North Carolina crop prospects 9 percent
to 2.00 million cwt. Production in Arizona is forecast at 1.46 million cwt, 14 percent above
1980. Harvest is underway and is expected to extend into July. In Texas, expected production,
at 900 thousand cwt, remained unchanged from Apri] 1. In the Rio Grande Valley, where harvest
is just getting underway, cool, wet conditions slowed crop development and increased disease
problems. In the Winter Garden area, the crop is in good condition and is responding well to
ample moisture supplies. In the Knox-Haskell area, the crop is progressing well with good
moisture supplies and a minimum of insect and disease problems.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


COTTON: ESTIMATED PERCENT PRODUCTION SOLD EACH MONTH OF THE MARKETING YEAR 1979 CROP 1/

TOTAL
+ JUL : THROUGH

ALA 0 oO 10 2 2 2 8 3 2 1 1 1 98
ARIZ : 0 71 13 2 2 9 5 2 2 2 38 2 94
ARK : 0 1 W 30 32 8 W 2 7 1 1 1 98
CALIF : 0 O 13 2 18 #%% 5 2 2 2 2 4 1
GA o 1 7 20 28 2 3 2 2 7 1 98
LA >: 0 0 8 2 34 2 3 #3 9 0 0 0O- 100
MISS 0 oO 1 3 2 #W 3 2 27 1 1 1 99

0 0 4 #3 6 4 2 1 1 © oO 0 100
OKLA : 0 0 3 2 34 2@ 68 4 2 1 1 1 100
SC : 0 2 30 2 4 #213 5 2 3 2 3 2 98
TENN >: 0 oO 9 @ s2 5% 2 1 0 0 oO oO 100
TEX >: 7 § 8 4 2 24 7 #4 3 2 2 3 97
us3/ : 3 2 W 2 2 19 6 3 2 2 2 2 96

COTTON: ESTIMATED PERCENT PRODUCTION SOLD EACH MONTH OF THE MARKETING YEAR 1980 CROP-
. PRELIMINARY 1/

TOTAL’
+ THROUGH

ALA 0 3 18 28 27 nv 3 3 93
ARIZ 0 1 15 19 12 16 W 3 77
ARK 0 5 27 29 10 5 3 2 81
CALIF 0 ti) 9 27 WwW 8 4 4 69
GA H 0 2 20 18 24 8 8 4 84
LA 0 1 24 40 7 13 2 7 98
MISS 0 (i) 36 35 13 8 2 1 95
MO 3 0 v 46 4 4 4 0 0 99
OKLA 3 0 0 6 30 20 15 5 5 81
sc vi) 10 4 15 12 16 3 1 oT
TENN 0 16 42 25 9 3 3 1 99
TEX 10 5 4 10 14 13 19 7 82
3 3 9 4

1/ PERCENTS OF FOUR-TENTHS OR LESS SHOWN AS “0”.
2/ EXCLUDES UNREDEEMED LOANS ON AUG 1, 1980,

3/ A SMALL PERCENT FOR JUL IS INCLUDED IN AUG.
@/ EXCLUDES UNREDEEMED LOANS AND COTTON STILL IN PRODUCER'S HANDS ON APR 1, 1981.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 22 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA-


APRIL WEATHER SUMMARY

Some rain fell in nearly all parts of the Nation. Only tsolated areas in the Southwest were
rainless. Most of western Texas had well above normal amounts of rain from showers and
thunderstorms. Severe weather increased rapidly as the month progressed. Hail, high winds and
tornadoes plagued many areas east of the Rockies and summerlike temperatures broke records from
California across the South, in the central Plains and in the Midwest.

The first four days of the month were stormy as a cold front moved from the Rockies through
the eastern United States. Thunderstorms triggered 10 tornadoes in Iowa and Wisconsin. High
temperatures ahead of the front reached into the eighties as far north as New York State.

FIRST WEEK...A cold front, moving through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Plains,
brought cooler temperatures and gusty, westerly winds which blew dust across Montana. Ahead of
the front, strong southerly winds through the central Plains caused the mercury to rise into the
seventies in Minnesota. The front moved eastward through the northern States and triggered
severe thunderstorms. Large hail and some tornadoes developed from Iowa to Pennsylvania.

SECOND WEEK...A succession of cold fronts moved from the northern Rockies through the eastern
United States. Freezing temperatures reached into the central Plains early in the week and into
the mid-Atlantic States later. As the cool air moved eastward it was replaced by unseasonably
warm air--80° readings reached into the northern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms were
widespread from the Southwest to the southern and central Plains, the middle Mississippi Valley,
the Ohio Valley, and the mid- Atlantic States through New England. Heavy rain produced flooding
in Texas and in southern Ohio; tornadoes twisted through areas from Oklahoma and Arkansas to
southern Indiana. Strong south easterly winds blew dust back in Montana and the Dakotas.

THIRD WEEK...A low pressure system trailing a cold front southwestward, moved slowly from
southern Alberta, Canada, across the northern tier of the United States. Some very welcome
showers fell in the northern Plains but the amounts of rain were small. The southeastern States
received rain after more than raintess weeks. Severe weather plagued the State of Texas almost
every day and wet weather kept farmers out of the fields in many parts of the eastern United
States. At the end of the week, temperatures were unseasonably warm, and readings of 90° in
Missouri and Iowa set record highs..

FOURTH WEEK...The last week of April brought record breaking heat to the west, the South, the
central Plains, and the Corn Belt. Thunderstorms produced hail in the Pacific Northwest and
some snow fell in the higher elevations. Nearly all of the area east of the Rockies had showers
or thunderstorms. Some heavy rains fell in east Texas and the northern Mississippi Valley and
severe weather plagued the area from Minnesota to western Pennsylvania. Heavy rains in
Pennsylvania caused local flooding. (Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility)

APRIL FIELDWORK

Land preparation and spring planting made rapid progress during the first half of April, but
rain and wet fields in the eastern Corn Belt delayed outside activities during much of the
second part of the month. By May 3 spring planting was ahead of schedule in all areas except
the eastern Corn Belt.

Corn pTanting was active fn the South at the beginning of April and got underway in the Corn
Belt about midmonth. By May 3, 24% of the acreage was seeded, lagging last year's 36% and the
26% average. Many States were ahead of normal, but planting in the important Corn Belt States
of I)linois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Ohio was slowed by rain and wet fields. In
the western Corn Belt rapid progress was made during the last week of the month.

Cotton planting advanced to 45% by May 3, 11 points ahead of last year's progress.
California planting was 94% finished and Arizona stood at 85%. All major States except Georgia,
New Mexico, and Oklahoma were ahead of schedule. Rapid progress was made at the end of the
month.

Spring wheat seeding reached 77% by May 3 compared with 72% last year, and well ahead of the
average of 49% for the date. Montana producers seeded 30% of their. acreage during the week
ending May 3. Oats planting progress was ahead of normal throughout April. Energence of spring
planted grains in the northern Plains is spotty because of the lack of mofsture.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


PEACHES

PROOUCTION 8 PRODUCTION
crop 3 POUNDS : 48 LB. EQUIVALENT
ee ee i ea ee

AND 2 TOTAL 1/ tINDICATED TOTAL

aenennns secon enee.

NDICATED

STATE 1981 1979 1980 1981
. MILLION UNITS 1,000 UNITS
PEACHES 3

ALA : 20.0 14,0 20,0 - 417 292 417
ARK t 36,0 730 563 833
Ga : 135.0 2,813 2,500 2,813
LA z 7.9 146 83 146
MIss : 3.0 63 sz 145
Nec z 50.0 1,042 938 833
OKLA 3 11,0 229 167 188
sc 3 359.0 7,292 7,396 7,708
TEX 3 23.0 200 625

9 SOUTHERN STATES

12,271 13,678

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTEO PRUDUCTION AKL EXCESS CULLAGE
(MILLION POUNDS)39 SOUTHERN STATES,1979=-8.5, 1980°0.5,

SPRING POTATOES

AREA HARVESTED
STATE f eee w cece nn ween nen en en nn wenn
: IND :
1940 3 1961 2 1979 %

PROMUCTION

IND 3
1961 %

1979

: 1,000 ACRES 3,000

ALA : 6.0 4.0 140 105 150 1,022 630 600
ARIZ : 4.4 5.2 210 290 280 1,302 1,276 1,456
CALTE : 22.5 26.4 395 390 390 11,060 8,775 10,296
FLA-HASTINGS: 18,0 21.0 230 195 240 4,255 3,510 5,040

-OTHER 28 1.0 180 170 185 162 136 165
ua wo: 1.7 1.5 75 70 ao 150 119 120
NC : 13.0 13.3 165 140 150 2,261 1,620 1,995
TEX : be2 6.0 160 130 150 1,136 806 900
us : 72.6 78,4 255 235 263 21,348 17,072 20,592

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA



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CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA

W7

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981


a

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS*

May 1, 1981
io
© Good to excellent 7
[2 Poor to fair
Very poor 9 JAS REPORTED BY
RED) Severe drought CROP CORRES

EA Extreme drought

* INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON- IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

USDA NEG. ESS 319.81(5)

USDA NEG. ESCS 239-8015)

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS*

May 1, 1980

TO Good to excellent s
© Poor to fair \ b

ZZ Very poor
(BO Severe drought AS REPORTED ay
GHD Extreme drought CROP CORRESPONDENTS

* INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON-IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

CROP AND UNIT

7,000 ACRES
WINTER WHEAT BU : 51,374 57,775 36.8 36.0 1,891,257
SPRING POTATOES cw: 72.6 78.4 235 263 17,072
PEACHES 1/ LB : 589,000
ALMONDS TCALIF) LB 2 322,000
HAY STOCKS ON FARMS TON: 33,346
PASTURE AND RANGE 2/- PCT : 80 79
CITRUS FRUITS 3/ : 1979-80
BOX 5
GRAPEFRUIT . 73, 200
LEMONS . 20,750

1/ 9 SOUTHERN STATES.

2/ PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH.
BO PERCENT.
THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
{METRIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED

:YIELD PER HECTARE

INDICATED :
1981 :

: INDICATED
3 1980

METRIC TONS
WINTER WHEAT : 20 790 540 23 380 960 2.48 2.42 51 471 420
SPRING POTATOES : 29 380 31 730 26.36 29.44 774 370
PEACHES 1/ : 267 160
ALMONDS {CALIF ) : 146 060
HAY STOCKS ON FARMS: 30 250 980
CITRUS FRUITS 2/ : 1979-80
ORANGES ~ : 10 0
GRAPEFRUIT 2 708 850
LEMONS 715 770

1/ 9 SOUTHERN STATES.
OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

: 2,078,137
21,056” 20,592
656,500

380,000

25,500

1980-81 1980-81
67,300 67,600
30,500 31,000

THE 1970-79 AVERAGE IS
3/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST

56 557 620
955 080 934 030
297 780
172 360
23 133 210

1980-81 1980-81
95 590 9 22 250
2 485 690 =. 2-497 480
1 051 430 = 1 «068 660

2/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION

selected agricultural commodities.

APPROVED: D. W. Barrownan,
R. P. Small,
F. A. Yogel,
LA : DL G. H. Howse,
A LhaL ) R. W. Milton,

ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

The CROP PRODUCTION report contatns State and National estimates with related Information on
These data were prepared and adopted by the Crop Reporting
Board which consists of commodity statisticfans from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:

d. L. Olson, Chairman,
« Clampet, Secretary,

G. F. Smith.

R. L. Schulte,
W. R. Blackson,
R. D. Fenley,
D. C. Johnson,
G. A. NeTson,

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 2

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


ALMONDS (SHELLED BASIS)

PRODUCTION

1,000 POUNDS

376,000 322,000 380,000

PAPAYAS ~ HAWAII

FRESH PRODUCTION

FORECAST
1981

1,000 POUNDS
1,960 1,921 5,170

HAWATI

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

1979 3 1980 1978 2 1979 3 1980 = 1976

1979 = 1980

1,000 POUNDS
BANANAS : 580 639 580 9.8 8.8 7.9 5,700 5,550 2,600
PAPAYAS 2 2,190 2210 1,950 29.2 18.6 25,1 64,000 41,015 48,916
TARO : 450 400 320 17,1 16.6 © 20,0 7,680 | 6,640 6,400

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA


TOBACCO

PRODUCTION

AREA HARVESTED

STATE peceennemenennnenennnncenen! nacenaneneeannnnnennencee! sanneneannennatannnnannneens
1980 1979 1980
: ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
ALA : 500 510 1,650 1,620 825 826
CONN : 3,200 3,500 1,539 1,601 4,925 5,602
FLA’ : 10,300 10,300 2,250 1,975 23,175 20,343
GA : 53,000 55,000 1,905 2,010 100,965 110,550
IND : 6,100 7,300 1,950 2,300” 11,895 16,790
ky : 173,700 200,900 1,976 2,075 343,145 416,962
LA : 80 80 700 700 56 56
MD > 19,500 21,000 1,130 1,075 22,035 22,575
MASS : 990 1,800 1,500 1,582 1,485 1,867
MO : 2,500 2,500 2,405 2,105 6,013 5,263
NC 337,800 378,800 1,840 2,011 621,426 761,705
OHTO : 9,800 11,200 1,435 1,788 14,063 20,020
PA : 11,200 13,000 1,580 1,900 17,696 24,700
SC : 57,000 65,000 2,065 1,930 317,705 125,450
TENN : 60,090 64,760 1,745 1,728 104,829 117,931
vA > 67,240 65,290 1,630 1,636 109,603 106,791
WYA : 1,300 1,500 1,275 1,500 1,658 2,250
WIS > 12,900 12,800 1,942 1,978 25,050 25,316
us 827,200 914,620 1,845 1,945 1,526,549 1,778,997

TOBACCO

SEASON AVERAGE PRICE PER
POUND RECEIVED BY FARMERS VALUE OF PRODUCTION

CENTS 1,000 DOLLARS
ALA : 133.5 135.8 1,101 1,122
CONN 573.9 632.0 28,263 35,427
FLA 135.0 145.0 31,286 29,497
GA 141.0 139.5 142,361 154,217
IND 145.0 166.0 17,248 27,871
KY 142.7 163.7 489,813 682,480
LA : 175.0 200.0 98 Nez
ND 139.7 Vv 30,783 38,332
MASS 649.9 762.0 9,651 . 743222
Mo : 141.5 162.0 8,508 8,526
We : 139.6 146.7 867,253 11173695
OHTO : 137.8 159.0 19,382 31,829
PA : 72.0 87.0 12,741 . 213489
SC : 147.5 139.5 166,553 175,003
TENN 137.6 161.0 144,275 180,221
VA 139.6 145.8 152,979 155,720
WA 142.0 165.5 2,354 3728
WIS 117.0 125.0 29,309 31,646
us 14101 152.3 2,153,958 2,709,133

1/ EVALUATED AT 169.8 CENTS PER POUND, THE AVERA

‘S THROUGH MAY 4, 1981.

CROP PRODUCTION, MAY 1981 16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESS, USDA