Cr Pr 2-2 (3-09) 

Washington, D.C.

Crop 

Production

Released March 11, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For 

information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. 

All Orange Production Up 1 Percent from February 

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2008-09 season is 9.05 million tons, up 1 percent from the 

February 1 forecast but 11 percent lower than the 2007-08 final utilization of 10.2 million tons. Florida’s all 

orange forecast, at 158 million boxes (7.11 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 

7 percent from last season’s final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 

85.0 million boxes (3.83 million tons), up 2 percent from the February forecast and last season. Florida’s 

Valencia forecast, at 73.0 million boxes (3.29 million tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast and is 

16 percent less than the 2007-08 crop. Weather conditions over the past two months have had a significant 

impact on remaining oranges. Two freezes, one in late January and one in early February, caused some damage 

to unharvested fruit, primarily for late orange varieties. Also, citrus producing areas received minimal 

precipitation during the winter months, resulting in drought conditions. Objective survey measurements taken 

during February showed a decrease in fruit size and an increase in the drop rate for the Valencia crop. 

The California Valencia orange forecast is 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), up 25 percent from the previous 

forecast but down 6 percent from last season’s final utilization. This brings California’s all orange forecast to 

49.5 million boxes, up 6 percent from the January 1 forecast but down 23 percent from the 2007-08 crop. Limited 

harvesting of Valencia oranges began at the end of February and fruit quality was good. Objective survey 

measurements taken during January and February indicated a lighter than normal average fruit set, while average 

fruit size measured larger than last year. 

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2008-09 season is 1.64 gallons per box 

at 42 degrees Brix, up 2 percent from the February forecast but 2 percent lower than last season’s final yield of 

1.67 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion increased to 1.60 gallons per box, up 3 percent from last 

season’s final yield of 1.55 gallons per box. The Valencia portion increased to 1.70 gallons per box, 5 percent 

lower than last year’s final yield of 1.79 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing 

relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 2 NASS, USDA 

This report was approved on March 11, 2009. 

Acting Secretary of 

Agriculture 

Joseph W. Glauber 

Agricultural Statistics Board 

Chairperson 

Carol C. House 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 3 NASS, USDA 

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

 Papayas...........................................................................................................................................................4 

Citrus Fruits

 Grapefruit .......................................................................................................................................................5 

 Lemons...........................................................................................................................................................5 

 Oranges ..........................................................................................................................................................5 

 Tangelos .........................................................................................................................................................5 

 Tangerines and Mandarins .............................................................................................................................5 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Sugarcane .......................................................................................................................................................4 

Crop Comments.................................................................................................................................................13 

Crop Summary ....................................................................................................................................................6 

Information Contacts........................................................................................................................................17 

Reliability of Production Data in this Report.................................................................................................16 

Weather Maps ...................................................................................................................................................12 

Weather Summary ............................................................................................................................................13 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 4 NASS, USDA 

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production 

by Use, State, and United States, 2007-2008 

Area Harvested Yield 1

 Production 1 Use 

and 

State 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 

For Sugar 

 FL 

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US 

For Seed 

 FL 

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US 

For Sugar 

 and Seed 

 FL 

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US 

375.0 

20.4 

390.0 

42.5 

827.9 

18.0 

2.5 

30.0 

1.2 

51.7 

393.0 

22.9 

420.0 

43.7 

879.6 

384.0 

20.0 

380.0 

40.0 

824.0 

16.0 

2.0 

25.0 

1.5 

44.5 

400.0 

22.0 

405.0 

41.5 

868.5 

36.0 

73.2 

30.4 

33.5 

34.2 

37.6 

28.3 

30.4 

30.4 

32.8 

36.1 

68.3 

30.4 

33.4 

34.1 

33.7 

80.0 

29.0 

39.8 

33.0 

39.4 

34.0 

29.0 

39.8 

33.3 

33.9 

75.8 

29.0 

39.8 

33.0 

13,500 

1,493 

11,856 

1,424 

28,273 

677 

71 

912 

36 

1,696 

14,177 

1,564 

12,768 

1,460 

29,969 

12,941 

1,600 

11,020 

1,592 

27,153 

630 

68 

725 

60 

1,483 

13,571 

1,668 

11,745 

1,652 

28,636 

1

 Net tons. 

2

 Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." 

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2008-2009 

Area Fresh Production 1

Month Total in Crop Harvested 

2008 2009 2008 2009 

2008 2009 

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 

Dec 

Jan 

2,410 

2,040 2,290 

1,465 

1,430 1,340 

2,785 

2,880 2,080 

1

 Utilized fresh production. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 5 NASS, USDA 

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 

2006-07, 2007-08 and Forecasted March 1, 2009 1

Utilized Production 

Boxes 

Utilized Production 

Crop and State Ton Equivalent 

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 

Oranges 

 Early, Mid & 

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

 Valencia 

 AZ 4

 CA 

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

 All 

 AZ 4

 CA 

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

Grapefruit 

 White 

 FL 

 Colored 

 FL 

 All 

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

Tangerines and Mandarins 

 AZ 4 5

 CA 4 5

 FL 

 US 

Lemons 4

 AZ 

 CA 

 US 

Tangelos 

 FL 

200 

34,500 

65,600 

1,600 

101,900 

100 

11,500 

63,400 

380 

75,380 

300 

46,000 

129,000 

1,980 

177,280 

9,300 

17,900 

100 

5,500 

27,200 

7,100 

39,900 

300 

3,500 

4,600 

8,400 

2,500 

18,500 

21,000 

1,250 

230 

48,500 

83,500 

1,500 

133,730 

150 

16,000 

86,700 

234 

103,084 

380 

64,500 

170,200 

1,734 

236,814 

9,000 

17,600 

100 

5,700 

26,600 

6,100 

38,500 

400 

5,700 

5,500 

11,600 

1,500 

17,000 

18,500 

1,500 

150 

34,500 

85,000 

1,450 

121,100 

100 

15,000 

73,000 

200 

88,300 

250 

49,500 

158,000 

1,650 

209,400 

7,000 

16,000 

150 

4,500 

23,000 

5,700 

33,350 

250 

7,000 

4,000 

11,250 

2,500 

19,000 

21,500 

1,200 

7 

1,294 

2,952 

68 

4,321 

4 

431 

2,853 

16 

3,304 

11 

1,725 

5,805 

84 

7,625 

395 

761 

3 

184 

1,156 

284 

1,627 

11 

131 

219 

361 

95 

703 

798 

56 

9 

1,819 

3,757 

64 

5,649 

6 

600 

3,902 

10 

4,518 

15 

2,419 

7,659 

74 

10,167 

383 

748 

3 

191 

1,131 

244 

1,569 

15 

214 

261 

490 

57 

646 

703 

68 

6 

1,294 

3,825 

62 

5,187 

4 

563 

3,285 

9 

3,861 

10 

1,857 

7,110 

71 

9,048 

298 

680 

5 

151 

978 

228 

1,362 

9 

263 

190 

462 

95 

722 

817 

54 

1

 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2

 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; tangerines and 

mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3

 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of 

tangerines in TX. 4

 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 

5

 Includes tangelos and tangors. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 6 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 

(Domestic Units) 1

Area Planted Area Harvested Crop 

2008 2009 2008 2009 

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 

 Upland 

 Amer-Pima 

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 

 Dry Edible Beans 

 Dry Edible Peas 

 Lentils 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 4

4,234.0 

85,982.0 

3,217.0 

520.0 

2,995.0 

1,260.0 

8,284.0 

63,147.0 

46,281.0 

2,731.0 

14,135.0 

1,011.0 

354.0 

79.5 

1,534.0 

0.2 

202.0 

75,718.0 

2,516.5 

9,470.0 

9,296.0 

174.0 

1,090.8 

17.5 

1,495.0 

882.5 

271.0 

1,057.8 

11.0 

70.3 

46.0 

930.5 

102.9 

42,098.0 

9.0 

3,767.0 

78,640.0 

5,965.0 

60,062.0 

20,980.0 

39,082.0 

1,395.0 

460.0 

2,976.0 

269.0 

7,271.0 

408.0 

55,685.0 

39,614.0 

2,584.0 

13,487.0 

989.0 

340.0 

71.5 

1,507.0 

0.2 

195.0 

74,641.0 

2,396.0 

7,728.4 

7,559.0 

169.4 

1,004.6 

868.5 

354.2 

8.0 

1,445.2 

847.3 

263.0 

6.3 

0.1 

40.9 

60.0 

1,044.7 

11.0 

68.8 

43.8 

921.1 

20.4 

97.0 

0.4 

9.0 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop 

year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 

3

 Acreage is not estimated. 

4

 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 7 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 

(Domestic Units) 1

Yield Production Crop Units 

2008 2009 2008 2009 

 1,000 1,000 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 2

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu 

" 

Tons 

" 

" 

" 

Bu 

" 

Cwt 

Bu 

" 

Tons 

Bu 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

Tons 

Bu 

Lbs 

" 

" 

" 

Bu 

Lbs 

Bales 

" 

" 

Tons 

" 

Lbs 

Cwt 

" 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

" 

" 

" 

Cwt 

" 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

Cwt 

Lbs 

63.6 

153.9 

18.7 

2.43 

3.32 

1.95 

63.5 

32.3 

6,846 

29.7 

65.0 

13.8 

44.9 

47.2 

32.8 

40.5 

1,461 

16.8 

577 

3,416 

1,500 

1,592 

39.6 

1,429 

810 

799 

1,265 

26.7 

33.0 

2,260 

1,300 

1,768 

1,448 

917 

1,160 

30,000 

1,971 

92 

395 

230 

293 

309 

409 

118 

189 

210 

239,498 

12,101,238 

111,619 

145,672 

69,620 

76,052 

88,635 

14,880 

203,733 

7,979 

472,342 

5,646 

2,499,524 

1,867,903 

84,877 

546,744 

1,445,064 

4,429.0 

5,716 

41,255 

5,147,900 

300 

310,433 

2,959,174 

3,422,840 

13,035.6 

12,589.0 

446.6 

26,820 

28,636 

800,527 

104 

25,558 

12,270 

2,411 

580 

7,300 

1,800 

80,630.1 

5,499 

412,580 

2,530 

20,132 

13,532 

376,386 

2,399 

18,345 

4,400 

1,890 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop 

year. 2

 Yield in pounds. 

3

 Yield is not estimated. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 8 NASS, USDA 

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 

(Domestic Units) 1

Production Crop Units 

2007 2008 2009 

 1,000 1,000 1,000 

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit 

 Lemons 

 Oranges 

 Tangelos (FL) 

 Tangerines and Mandarins 

Noncitrus 

 Apples 

 Apricots 

 Bananas (HI) 

 Grapes 

 Olives (CA) 

 Papayas (HI) 

 Peaches 

 Pears 

 Prunes, Dried (CA) 

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) 

Nuts & Misc. 

 Almonds (CA) (shelled) 

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) 

 Pecans (in-shell) 

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) 

 Maple Syrup 

Tons 

" 

" 

" 

" 

1,000 Lbs 

Tons 

Lbs 

Tons 

" 

Lbs 

Tons 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

Tons 

Lbs 

Tons 

Gals 

1,627 

798 

7,625 

56 

361 

9,089.4 

88.5 

25,600.0 

7,037.3 

132.5 

33,400.0 

1,127.2 

873.0 

83.0 

12.1 

1,390,000 

37.0 

387,305 

328.0 

1,517 

1,569 

703 

10,167 

68 

490 

10,035.2 

81.5 

22,800.0 

7,434.9 

66.8 

33,100.0 

1,121.9 

818.5 

126.0 

15.6 

1,550,000 

32.0 

191,080 

375.0 

1,635 

1,362 

817 

9,048 

54 

462 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 

2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2

 Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 9 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 

(Metric Units) 1

Area Planted Area Harvested Crop 

2008 2009 2008 2009 

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland 

 Amer-Pima 

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 

 Dry Edible Beans 

 Dry Edible Peas 

 Lentils 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 5

1,713,460 

34,796,060 

1,301,890 

210,440 

1,212,050 

509,910 

3,352,450 

25,554,960 

18,729,460 

1,105,210 

5,720,290 

409,140 

143,260 

32,170 

620,790 

80 

81,750 

30,642,320 

1,018,400 

3,832,410 

3,762,000 

70,420 

441,440 

7,080 

605,010 

357,140 

109,670 

428,080 

4,450 

28,450 

18,620 

376,560 

41,640 

17,036,640 

3,640 

1,524,470 

31,824,820 

2,413,980 

24,306,490 

8,490,400 

15,816,090 

564,540 

186,160 

1,204,360 

108,860 

2,942,500 

165,110 

22,535,160 

16,031,390 

1,045,720 

5,458,050 

400,240 

137,590 

28,940 

609,870 

80 

78,910 

30,206,470 

969,640 

3,127,610 

3,059,050 

68,550 

406,550 

351,470 

143,340 

3,240 

584,860 

342,890 

106,430 

2,550 

20 

16,550 

24,280 

422,780 

4,450 

27,840 

17,730 

372,760 

8,260 

39,250 

160 

3,640 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop 

year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 

3

 Total may not add due to rounding. 

4

 Acreage is not estimated. 

5

 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 10 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 

(Metric Units) 1

Yield Production Crop 

2008 2009 2008 2009 

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 

 Amer-Pima 

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 

 Dry Edible Beans 

 Dry Edible Peas 

 Lentils 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 3

3.42 

9.66 

41.95 

5.44 

7.44 

4.36 

2.28 

1.81 

7.67 

1.86 

4.08 

31.02 

3.02 

3.17 

2.21 

2.73 

1.64 

1.06 

0.65 

3.83 

1.68 

1.78 

2.67 

1.60 

0.91 

0.90 

1.42 

59.85 

73.91 

2.53 

1.46 

1.98 

1.62 

1.03 

1.30 

33.63 

2.21 

0.10 

44.26 

25.78 

32.80 

34.63 

45.80 

0.13 

21.20 

23.54 

5,214,450 

307,385,600 

101,259,050 

132,151,420 

63,158,200 

68,993,210 

1,286,530 

337,470 

9,241,170 

202,680 

11,998,040 

5,121,970 

68,025,900 

50,835,990 

2,309,970 

14,879,930 

655,470 

4,017,920 

145,190 

18,710 

2,335,050 

140 

140,810 

80,535,520 

1,552,570 

2,838,170 

2,740,930 

97,240 

24,330,690 

25,978,140 

363,110 

4,720 

1,159,290 

556,560 

109,360 

26,310 

3,310 

820 

36,570 

2,490 

18,714,320 

114,760 

913,170 

613,800 

17,072,580 

1,090 

832,120 

2,000 

85,730 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop 

year. 2

 Production may not add due to rounding. 

3

 Yield is not estimated. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 11 NASS, USDA 

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 

(Metric Units) 1

Production Crop 

2007 2008 2009 

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons 

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit 

 Lemons 

 Oranges 

 Tangelos (FL) 

 Tangerines and Mandarins 

Noncitrus 

 Apples 

 Apricots 

 Bananas (HI) 

 Grapes 

 Olives (CA) 

 Papayas (HI) 

 Peaches 

 Pears 

 Prunes, Dried (CA) 

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) 

Nuts & Misc. 

 Almonds (CA) (shelled) 

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) 

 Pecans (in-shell) 

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) 

 Maple Syrup 

1,475,990 

723,930 

6,917,280 

50,800 

327,490 

4,122,880 

80,250 

11,610 

6,384,090 

120,200 

15,150 

1,022,530 

791,930 

75,300 

10,980 

630,490 

33,570 

175,680 

297,560 

7,580 

1,423,370 

637,750 

9,223,350 

61,690 

444,520 

4,551,890 

73,940 

10,340 

6,744,840 

60,600 

15,010 

1,017,780 

742,490 

114,310 

14,150 

703,070 

29,030 

86,670 

340,190 

8,170 

1,235,590 

741,170 

8,208,210 

48,990 

419,120 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop 

year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2

 Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 12 NASS, USDA 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 13 NASS, USDA 

February Weather Summary

Much-needed precipitation doubled the water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack and aided California’s 

drought-stressed pastures and rangeland. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the water 

equivalent of the Sierra Nevada snow pack climbed from 10 to 20 inches (from 58 to 77 percent of average for the date) 

during February. In contrast, winter wheat conditions continued to decline across the southern Plains due to drought 

intensification. In Texas, nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition on 

March 1, up from 46 percent on January 3 and 16 percent on November 23. By early March, very poor to poor 

conditions were also noted on 42 and 15 percent of the wheat acreage in Oklahoma and Kansas, respectively. Farther 

north and east, however, heavy precipitation occurred from the Dakotas eastward into the Great Lakes region, 

maintaining adequate to locally excessive moisture reserves. Elsewhere, drier-than-normal conditions prevailed during 

February across the majority of the South and East. Southeastern drought concerns were greatest, however, across 

Florida’s peninsula, where citrus producers irrigated to ensure favorable moisture in orchards for the upcoming bloom 

season. 

Warmer-than-normal conditions were observed during February in a broad area stretching from the Rockies into the 

Midwest. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F above normal across the southern half of the Plains. In 

contrast, cooler-than-normal weather prevailed across the northernmost Plains, the lower Southeast, and the Far West. 

February readings averaged at least 5 degrees F below normal in much of North Dakota and a few locations in Florida 

and southern Georgia. On February 5, Florida’s peninsula experienced a freeze similar to the one observed on 

January 22. Like the earlier freeze, citrus and sugarcane appeared to escape significant harm, while tender vegetables, 

such as tomatoes, beans, and sweet corn, suffered varying degrees of freeze damage. 

February Agricultural Summary 

Conditions were abnormally wet in areas along the Pacific Coast, throughout most of the Corn Belt, and in some central 

locations of the Delta where upwards of 200 percent of normal precipitation fell during the month. Locations in 

northern California received between 12 and 15 inches of precipitation during the month which lessened irrigation 

demands and aided wheat development in the area. 

Areas of the Southwest suffered from unusually dry conditions, showing precipitation totals less than 5 percent of 

normal. Due to the lack of rain, wheat producers in the Northern High Plains of Texas were irrigating their crop. The 

Southeast and several Mid-Atlantic States were drier than normal with monthly precipitation totaling less than 

25 percent of normal in many areas. Producers without irrigation capabilities were concerned that spring planting may 

be delayed as a result of the dry weather. 

With the exception of portions of the Southeast and northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where 

temperatures averaged 6 to 10 degrees below normal, temperatures across much of the country were above average for 

the month. A freeze in early February damaged vegetables and sugarcane in Florida and left citrus growers busy taking 

preventative measures to lessen the impact of the cold temperatures. Freezing temperatures in Georgia damaged some 

high bush blueberries and prevented growers from transplanting cabbage. In contrast, several locations in the central 

and southern Great Plains felt temperatures as much as 8 to 10 degrees warmer than normal. 

Crop Comments

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2008 is estimated at 28.6 million tons, down 5 percent from 

February and 4 percent below 2007. Area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed, at 868,500 acres, is down 

3,000 acres from last month, down 11,000 acres from last year, and is the smallest acreage harvested since 1990. Yield 

is estimated at 33.0 tons per acre, down 1.6 tons from last month and 1.1 tons below the 2007 crop. 

Production in Florida is estimated at 13.6 million tons for the 2008 crop year, down 10 percent from February and 

4 percent lower than 2007. Florida’s yield, at 33.9 tons per acre, is down 3.5 tons from last month and 2.2 tons from 

the previous year. Harvested area, at 400,000 acres, is down 3,000 acres from last month but up 7,000 acres from 2007. 

Florida’s estimates for acreage, yield, and production were reduced due to freeze damage suffered in January and 

February. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 14 NASS, USDA 

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.08 million pounds for January 2009, down 25 percent from 

December and down 28 percent from a year ago. Total crop area for January is estimated at 2,290 acres, down 

5 percent from December but up 12 percent from January 2008. Harvested area totaled 1,340 acres, down 9 percent 

from the previous month and 6 percent lower than January 2008. Wet weather and cool temperatures continued into 

early January. Recovery was slow for plantings exposed to the heavy December rains, and growers were concerned 

about controlling fungal disease after weeks of wet weather. Intermittent clear days allowed usual field maintenance 

and schedules to resume. 

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2008-09 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.36 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 

forecast but 13 percent lower than 2007-08 final utilization of 1.57 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is 

forecast at 23.0 million boxes (978,000 tons), unchanged from the February forecast but 14 percent below last season. 

The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 7.00 million boxes (298,000 tons), unchanged from February but down 

22 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), is 

unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 9 percent lower than last season. Although considered final in January, an 

additional monthly size and drop survey was conducted in February for both white and colored varieties. Results 

showed that very little growth occurred in white grapefruit, with fruit size still measuring slightly above average. As of 

March 1, approximately 42 percent of the crop had been harvested. Average fruit size for the colored variety continued 

to closely follow the average of the past eight non-hurricane seasons, and the final drop rate continued to measure near 

average. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecast. 

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.20 million boxes (54,000 tons), down 8 percent from the February 1 forecast 

and 20 percent lower than last season’s final production. As of March 1, approximately 68 percent of the crop had been 

harvested. 

Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 462,000 tons, down 6 percent from 

both the February 1 forecast and the 2007-08 season. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.00 million boxes 

(190,000 tons), down 13 percent from the February forecast and down 27 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. The 

Honey tangerine variety, which accounts for more than 40 percent of Florida’s total tangerine production, suffered 

considerable damage from the freezing temperatures of late-January and early-February. The freeze stunted fruit 

growth and a significant amount of fruit in the southernmost citrus counties was unable to maintain the quality 

necessary for the fresh markets. Honey variety fruit continued to measure below average in size and above average in 

drop. Harvest of the early Fallglo variety was complete for the season and the Sunburst harvest was nearing 

completion. Arizona and California tangerine and mandarin production forecasts are carried forward from the January 

forecast. 

Florida Citrus: Freezing temperatures returned to the State on February 5 as early morning lows dropped into the 

mid-20’s in Arcadia and Palmdale and temperatures in the southernmost areas of the State dropped just below freezing. 

Some citrus growers increased irrigation to lessen the impact of the freezing temperatures to their citrus crop, while 

others took advantage of relaxed truck load weight restrictions and harvested their fruit. Temperatures returned to more 

seasonal levels the following weekend, and by mid-month, daily highs were in the low to mid-80’s in all areas. With 

warmer afternoon temperatures, many trees began sprouting new shoots and leafing out. No significant rainfall was 

received during February so abnormally dry conditions continued in all citrus producing areas. 

Fieldwork during the month included hedging, topping, irrigating, fertilizing, aerial spraying, and mowing. Early and 

midseason oranges continued to be harvested and processed. Grapefruit was harvested and tangerines and tangelos 

were picked in small quantities each week. 

California Citrus: Despite the receipt of needed rainfall during February, drought conditions and forecasted 

reductions in water deliveries remained a concern for citrus growers. Wet conditions hampered citrus harvest activities 

at times, but harvest continued for lemons, Murcott tangerines, Minneola tangelos, navel, Moro and Cara Cara oranges, 

and Pummelo and Melo Gold grapefruit. Overall, fruit size and color were good, but some navels showed drying due to 

over-maturity. Picking of Valencia oranges was expected to begin soon in parts of Kern County. 

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Needed rain was received during February but the continuous rainfall in the 

northern two-thirds of the State did not significantly reduce forecasted drought conditions for later in the year. Water 

rationing continued to be implemented in many locations. Orchard site preparation such as pruning, spraying, and tree 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 15 NASS, USDA 

planting was winding down. Grape pruning and tying continued. Early variety nectarine and apricot trees began to 

bloom and other stone fruit varieties were pushing buds. Kiwifruit harvest continued and spring strawberries were 

growing well. Raspberry and strawberry nursery stock digging was complete. Bee hives were placed in cherry and 

almond orchards to assist in pollination but wet weather conditions slowed bee activity. Almond trees were in full 

bloom. Pruning, tree planting, and disking continued in almond, walnut, and pistachio orchards. Bloom was expected 

to progress slowly given the wet and cold weather conditions.
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 16 NASS, USDA 

Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which 

accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the 

season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on 

administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is 

determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are 

conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. 

Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, 

and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March 

for Valencia oranges. 

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, 

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current 

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to 

prepare the published March 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month 

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released 

in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, 

including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for 

recorded local utilization and home use. 

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean 

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 

production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of 

squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes 

statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences 

in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's 

forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 2.6 percent. However, if you 

exclude the 5 abnormal production seasons (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square 

Error" is 2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not 

be above or below the final estimates by more than 2.6 percent, or 2.0 percent excluding abnormal seasons. 

Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.4 percent, or 

3.5 percent when excluding abnormal seasons. 

Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 

215,000 tons (203,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 520,000 tons (18,000 tons 

to 503,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final 

estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The 

difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

March 2009 17 NASS, USDA 

Information Contacts 

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to 

contact for additional information. 

Lance Honig, Chief .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127 

Field Crops Section 

Jacqueline Moore, Head .............................................................................. (202) 720-2127 

Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye .......................................................................... (202) 720-8068 

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings..................................................... (202) 720-5944 

Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum............................................................. (202) 690-3234 

Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed.................................................... (202) 720-9526 

Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops ................................... (202) 720-7621 

Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice.............................................................. (202) 720-7688 

Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.............................. (202) 720-7369 

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section 

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head ............................................................................ (202) 720-2127 

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco ........................... (202) 720-7235 

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, 

Onions, Strawberries..................................................... (202) 720-2157 

Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, 

Prunes............................................................................ (202) 720-4288 

Mike Jacobson - Cranberries ....................................................................... (202) 720-9085 

Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts............................................ (202) 720-4215 

Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas ............................................................. (202) 720-3250 

Suzanne Avilla - Citrus, Coffee, Tropical Fruits ......................................... (202) 720-5412 

Faye Propsom - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes................................. (202) 720-4285 

Kim Ritchie - Hops...................................................................................... (360) 902-1940 
 

 

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