Cr Pr 2-2 (12-04)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released December 10, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Cotton Production Up 1 Percent

All Orange Production Down 3 Percent

All cotton production is forecast at a record high 22.8 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from the

November 1 forecast and 25 percent above last year’s production. Yield is expected to average a record high

828 pounds per harvested acre, surpassing the previous record of 730 pounds set in 2003. Record high yields

are expected in Arkansas, California, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma,

Tennessee, and Texas. Harvested area, at 13.2 million acres, is unchanged from November but 10 percent

above 2003.

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2004-05 season is 9.98 million tons, down 3 percent from the previous

forecast and 23 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 168 million boxes

(7.56 million tons), is down 5 percent from the November forecast and 31 percent below the 2003-04 season. 

Early and midseason varieties are reduced 6 million boxes, to 86.0 million boxes (3.87 million tons),

7 percent less than the November forecast. If attained, this will be the smallest crop since the 1991-92 season. 

The growth rate has slowed and the fruit size is now expected to be smaller than previously estimated but

slightly above the 10 season minimum. The fruit drop rate is projected to be slightly higher than average. 

These factors are part of the forecast model and contributed to this month’s reduction. The Valencia forecast

is decreased 2 million boxes to 82.0 million boxes (3.69 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous

forecast. Projected drop rate remains at 15 percent but average fruit size decreased. Arizona, California, and

Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from October.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season is unchanged from the

previous month forecast at 1.56 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is the same as the 2003-04

season’s yield of 1.56 gallons per box as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. Florida’s

processing plants are just opening with an estimated 4.5 million boxes processed as of December 1. Projected

juice yield for the 2004-05 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop

Production report. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to

those of the past several seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on December 10, 2004.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Nancy S. Bryson

Agricultural Statistics Board

Acting Chairperson

Steven D. Wiyatt
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Cotton ............................................................................ 4

 Cumulative Boll Counts ............................................................ 24

Cottonseed ......................................................................... 5

Sugarcane ........................................................................ 17

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

Dry Edible Beans ................................................................... 7

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas ........................................................................... 5

Pecans ........................................................................... 16

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit ......................................................................... 6

Lemons ........................................................................... 6

Oranges ........................................................................... 6

Tangelos .......................................................................... 6

Tangerines ......................................................................... 6

Temples ........................................................................... 6

Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops

Coffee ........................................................................... 17

Crop Comments ...................................................................... 27

Crop Summary ....................................................................... 18

Information Contacts .................................................................. 33

Reliability of Production Data in this Report .............................................. 31

Weather Maps ....................................................................... 25

Weather Summary .................................................................... 26
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 4 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted December 1, 2004

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Nov 1 Dec 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

510.0

213.0

945.0

545.0

1,290.0

510.0

1,090.0

390.0

38.0

770.0

170.0

218.0

530.0

4,350.0

85.0

172.0

11,826.0

2.4

149.0

6.0

20.0

177.4

510.0

215.4

945.0

694.0

1,290.0

510.0

1,090.0

390.0

44.0

770.0

170.0

218.0

530.0

4,370.0

85.0

172.0

12,003.4

535.0

236.0

920.0

557.0

1,260.0

490.0

1,090.0

385.0

64.0

725.0

195.0

218.0

540.0

5,500.0

81.0

174.0

12,970.0

3.0

219.0

11.0

20.0

253.0

535.0

239.0

920.0

776.0

1,260.0

490.0

1,090.0

385.0

75.0

725.0

195.0

218.0

540.0

5,520.0

81.0

174.0

13,223.0

772

1,239

916

1,317

785

967

934

862

884

646

616

718

806

478

674

576

723

920

1,194

1,056

1,056

1,170

772

1,236

916

1,290

785

967

934

862

908

646

616

718

806

480

674

576

730

727

1,342

1,028

1,508

686

784

960

960

938

847

714

815

844

672

889

607

808

960

1,425

916

1,032

1,366

727

1,338

1,028

1,485

686

784

960

960

934

847

714

815

844

673

889

607

818

754

1,342

1,070

1,508

686

862

1,000

997

938

874

714

815

862

663

889

607

818

960

1,425

916

1,032

1,366

754

1,338

1,070

1,485

686

862

1,000

997

934

874

714

815

862

665

889

607

828

820.0

550.0

1,804.0

1,495.0

2,110.0

1,027.0

2,120.0

700.0

70.0

1,037.0

218.0

326.0

890.0

4,330.0

119.4

206.5

17,822.9

4.6

370.5

13.2

44.0

432.3

820.0

554.6

1,804.0

1,865.5

2,110.0

1,027.0

2,120.0

700.0

83.2

1,037.0

218.0

326.0

890.0

4,374.0

119.4

206.5

18,255.2

840.0

660.0

2,050.0

1,750.0

1,800.0

880.0

2,270.0

800.0

125.0

1,320.0

290.0

370.0

970.0

7,600.0

150.0

220.0

22,095.0

6.0

650.0

21.0

43.0

720.0

840.0

666.0

2,050.0

2,400.0

1,800.0

880.0

2,270.0

800.0

146.0

1,320.0

290.0

370.0

970.0

7,643.0

150.0

220.0

22,815.0

 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-lb. net weight bale. 3 Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary."
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 5 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

2002-2003 and Forecasted December 1, 2004

State

Production

2002 2003 2004 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 6,183.9 6,664.6 8,344.0

 1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2003 2004

2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oct

Nov

2,375

2,210

2,100

2,100

1,575

1,580

1,365

1,365

3,450

3,105

3,265

2,665

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 6 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted December 1, 2004 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

200

42,000

112,000

1,350

155,550

270

20,000

91,000

220

111,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,800

5,500

8,730

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

300

38,000

126,000

1,420

165,720

170

14,000

116,000

230

130,400

470

52,000

242,000

1,650

296,120

1,400

15,900

25,000

140

5,400

40,900

5,700

52,140

690

2,700

6,500

9,890

3,000

18,000

21,000

1,000

270

46,000

86,000

1,650

133,920

170

16,000

82,000

250

98,420

440

62,000

168,000

1,900

232,340

800

3,000

10,000

200

5,200

13,000

5,900

24,300

500

2,900

4,500

7,900

2,400

19,500

21,900

1,100

8

1,575

5,040

57

6,680

10

751

4,095

9

4,865

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

957

4

187

1,646

226

2,063

16

105

261

382

114

912

1,026

105

12

1,426

5,670

60

7,168

6

526

5,220

10

5,762

18

1,952

10,890

70

12,930

63

675

1,063

5

181

1,738

228

2,152

25

101

309

435

114

684

798

45

10

1,725

3,870

70

5,675

6

600

3,690

11

4,307

16

2,325

7,560

81

9,982

36

128

425

7

174

553

236

970

19

109

214

342

91

741

832

50

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, Temples90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 7 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2002-2004 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM

NY

ND

OR

SD

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

92.0

92.0

95.0

21.0

270.0

170.0

26.9

185.0

8.5

25.0

790.0

9.8

21.0

37.5

1.8

44.5

7.7

32.0

1,929.7

77.0

80.0

75.0

12.0

170.0

115.0

13.0

155.0

10.0

25.0

540.0

7.0

8.0

50.0

5.6

27.5

6.0

30.0

1,406.1

67.0

75.0

80.0

9.0

190.0

115.0

13.0

120.0

6.0

24.0

560.0

6.0

9.0

20.0

5.3

30.0

5.0

25.0

1,359.3

89.0

70.0

93.0

17.5

265.0

155.0

23.0

165.0

8.5

24.5

690.0

8.5

16.0

32.5

0.3

44.5

7.6

29.0

1,738.9

75.0

73.0

73.0

11.0

165.0

110.0

12.8

148.0

10.0

24.0

520.0

6.0

7.5

44.0

5.2

27.5

5.9

29.0

1,346.9

65.0

67.0

78.0

8.5

185.0

100.0

12.8

110.0

6.0

23.5

475.0

5.5

8.9

17.5

4.8

29.0

4.9

24.0

1,225.4

Yield per Acre 2 Production 2

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM

NY

ND

OR

SD

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

1,980

2,170

2,050

1,600

1,850

1,720

1,600

2,100

1,800

1,360

1,540

1,720

1,630

970

1,670

1,870

1,970

2,150

1,743

1,840

1,600

2,050

2,100

1,500

1,700

1,820

2,130

1,860

1,860

1,500

1,650

1,770

1,170

310

1,910

2,100

2,220

1,670

2,000

1,900

2,100

1,800

1,700

1,150

2,130

2,160

2,600

1,050

1,000

1,750

1,840

860

300

2,100

2,200

2,150

1,479

1,762

1,519

1,907

280

4,903

2,666

367

3,465

153

333

10,626

146

261

315

5

830

150

624

30,312

1,380

1,168

1,497

231

2,475

1,870

233

3,151

186

446

7,800

99

133

513

16

525

124

645

22,492

1,300

1,273

1,638

153

3,145

1,150

272

2,376

156

247

4,750

96

164

151

14

609

108

516

18,118

 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 8 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2002-2004 1

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Large Lima - CA

Baby Lima - CA

Navy

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

Pinto

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

19.0

21.5

5.4

85.0

67.0

2.9

180.0

4.0

1.0

345.3

3.1

3.0

1.2

77.8

5.8

1.5

2.0

94.4

2.0

0.5

0.8

3.3

76.0

35.8

19.0

9.5

25.0

13.5

80.7

8.5

515.0

1.3

3.2

5.5

1.8

10.5

27.0

832.3

19.6

14.5

3.1

40.0

36.0

1.0

75.0

0.5

1.6

1.0

158.2

3.5

8.0

1.3

84.2

8.0

0.9

3.5

109.4

1.9

0.5

0.3

2.7

0.5

69.0

29.0

12.0

11.0

21.0

9.7

50.0

10.0

410.0

1.7

1.9

1.0

5.6

7.0

24.5

663.9

15.2

13.6

4.4

55.0

40.0

1.8

81.0

0.5

1.9

0.5

185.1

2.6

1.0

44.0

2.5

1.0

51.1

2.1

0.7

2.8

65.0

26.2

9.0

7.0

18.0

10.8

57.0

6.0

415.0

1.9

2.2

5.3

5.5

22.5

651.4

18.2

21.0

5.3

84.0

60.0

2.7

151.0

3.9

0.8

307.7

3.0

3.0

1.0

67.7

4.9

1.5

1.6

82.7

1.9

0.5

0.8

3.2

57.0

35.0

16.0

9.5

23.0

12.9

76.0

8.5

460.0

1.3

2.8

4.5

0.3

10.5

25.0

742.3

19.0

14.1

3.0

38.0

35.0

1.0

71.0

0.5

1.5

0.9

150.9

3.4

8.0

1.2

79.1

7.8

0.9

3.4

103.8

1.8

0.5

0.3

2.6

0.5

64.0

28.2

11.0

10.5

20.0

9.7

48.5

10.0

397.0

1.5

1.8

0.5

5.2

7.0

23.8

639.2

14.6

13.1

4.1

54.0

33.0

1.7

67.0

0.5

1.8

0.4

162.5

2.6

1.0

40.0

2.3

0.9

46.8

2.1

0.7

2.8

59.0

25.8

8.5

6.5

16.0

10.6

52.0

6.0

354.0

1.8

2.2

4.8

5.2

21.8

574.2

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 9 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2002-2004 1 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 2 Production 2

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Large Lima - CA

Baby Lima - CA

Navy

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

Pinto

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

1,840

2,390

2,250

1,930

1,880

2,520

1,550

2,460

2,250

1,751

2,170

2,000

1,200

1,900

1,510

2,200

1,750

1,884

2,000

2,400

2,250

2,125

2,250

2,380

1,600

1,930

1,400

2,250

2,250

1,800

1,560

2,310

2,610

640

1,670

2,810

2,180

1,777

1,940

2,300

2,370

1,560

1,750

2,300

1,640

1,600

1,600

2,220

1,666

2,320

1,680

2,080

2,200

1,760

2,220

2,300

2,135

2,170

2,000

2,000

2,115

1,200

1,610

2,300

2,100

1,430

1,650

2,150

2,100

1,860

1,480

2,000

2,110

1,600

310

2,300

2,210

1,635

2,270

2,290

2,390

1,800

1,000

2,400

970

2,000

1,830

2,250

1,318

2,230

1,600

2,070

1,260

2,220

2,030

2,380

2,290

2,357

1,910

2,300

1,800

1,710

1,000

2,300

2,300

2,600

1,010

1,830

2,500

300

2,940

2,140

1,399

334

501

119

1,620

1,128

68

2,340

96

18

5,389

65

60

12

1,286

74

33

28

1,558

38

12

18

68

1,282

833

256

183

322

290

1,709

153

7,184

30

73

29

5

295

544

13,188

369

325

71

592

612

23

1,164

8

24

20

2,514

79

134

25

1,743

137

20

78

2,216

39

10

6

55

6

1,031

649

231

150

329

209

1,019

186

5,864

30

38

8

16

161

526

10,453

331

300

98

970

330

41

650

10

33

9

2,141

58

16

827

29

20

950

50

16

66

1,126

593

153

111

160

244

1,196

156

3,573

33

55

14

153

467

8,034

 1 Missing data are included in "Other" class to avoid disclosure of individual operations or no data were reported. 2 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 10 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2002-2004 1

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 Total

6.0

10.0

1.3

15.0

7.6

14.0

15.0

1.5

70.4

2.5

1.4

8.5

42.0

2.0

7.0

7.7

71.1

10.8

8.9

9.0

6.1

34.8

10.7

11.0

2.8

6.4

30.9

1.7

2.5

20.0

24.2

5.0

7.0

1.0

16.0

10.0

14.0

14.1

67.1

0.9

0.9

9.0

27.0

1.1

5.0

6.0

49.9

0.9

10.6

8.5

8.5

4.3

32.8

9.0

19.0

1.5

3.7

33.2

1.5

1.9

12.0

15.4

4.7

6.0

1.8

15.0

7.3

9.0

12.0

55.8

1.3

1.6

7.0

30.0

1.5

5.0

5.0

51.4

0.5

11.0

6.2

6.8

5.0

29.5

8.4

15.5

1.6

4.7

3.0

33.2

2.2

1.9

9.5

13.6

6.0

8.0

1.3

14.5

7.4

13.7

14.7

1.5

67.1

2.5

1.4

8.0

39.0

2.0

5.1

7.6

65.6

10.6

8.6

7.8

6.1

33.1

10.5

11.0

2.5

6.4

30.4

1.7

2.5

19.0

23.2

4.9

6.0

1.0

15.5

9.4

13.9

13.4

64.1

0.9

0.9

9.0

26.0

1.1

4.6

5.9

48.4

0.9

10.3

8.0

7.7

4.3

31.2

8.8

19.0

1.3

3.7

32.8

1.5

1.9

12.0

15.4

4.6

5.0

1.8

14.5

6.9

8.7

11.6

53.1

1.3

1.5

6.5

26.4

1.5

4.7

4.9

46.8

0.5

10.8

5.9

6.4

4.9

28.5

8.2

15.0

1.4

4.4

2.9

31.9

2.2

1.6

9.0

12.8

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 11 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2002-2004 1 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 2 Production 2

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 Total

1,270

2,030

1,920

1,790

2,050

2,300

1,300

1,730

1,799

1,640

1,860

1,630

1,780

1,350

1,330

1,970

1,732

2,080

1,650

1,590

1,800

1,801

2,150

1,890

1,120

2,030

1,947

1,350

1,840

1,530

1,547

1,390

1,430

1,700

1,540

1,490

2,100

1,890

1,708

1,780

1,670

1,330

1,850

1,820

1,520

2,100

1,746

1,000

2,370

1,600

1,690

2,350

1,962

2,270

1,470

1,150

2,320

1,771

1,670

1,210

1,180

1,234

1,390

1,800

2,330

1,460

1,700

2,000

1,100

1,557

1,690

2,200

1,230

1,350

1,000

1,380

2,200

1,451

1,600

2,390

1,200

1,220

2,240

1,842

2,340

1,740

930

1,230

2,790

1,884

1,590

1,690

1,440

1,500

76

162

25

260

152

315

191

26

1,207

41

26

130

694

27

68

150

1,136

220

142

124

110

596

226

208

28

130

592

23

46

290

359

68

86

17

239

140

292

253

1,095

16

15

120

480

20

70

124

845

9

244

128

130

101

612

200

280

15

86

581

25

23

142

190

64

90

42

212

117

174

128

827

22

33

80

356

15

65

108

679

8

258

71

78

110

525

192

261

13

54

81

601

35

27

130

192

 1 Missing data are included in "Other" class to avoid disclosure of individual operations or no data were reported. 2 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 12 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2002-2004 1

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Black

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Small Chickpeas 3

(Garbanzo, Smaller

 than 20/64 in.)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

 Large Chickpeas 3

(Garbanzo, Larger

 than 20/64 in)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

4.0

110.0

11.9

2.3

6.0

60.0

2.5

196.7

12.6

22.0

34.6

0.4

1.3

45.0

4.9

1.0

8.2

22.0

1.5

84.3

16.5

34.0

50.5

1.6

2.1

1.0

1.0

0.3

6.0

9.7

9.4

1.1

2.2

4.0

2.4

0.8

7.9

37.5

1.0

3.1

74.0

7.2

2.5

9.0

39.0

2.6

138.4

10.3

18.5

28.8

2.8

0.5

1.0

1.3

5.6

7.0

11.7

1.7

1.0

2.5

2.3

2.5

9.8

38.5

3.9

108.0

10.3

2.1

5.8

51.0

2.5

183.6

12.4

20.0

32.4

0.4

1.3

43.0

4.6

1.0

7.9

21.0

1.5

80.7

16.1

30.0

46.1

1.6

2.0

0.9

0.8

0.3

5.6

9.4

9.0

1.0

2.0

3.8

2.0

0.7

7.9

35.8

1.0

2.9

73.0

6.0

2.3

8.9

31.2

2.6

127.9

10.1

16.0

26.1

2.8

0.5

0.8

1.3

5.4

6.7

11.5

1.7

0.9

2.1

2.2

2.5

9.7

37.3

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 13 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2002-2004 1 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 2 Production 2

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Black

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Small Chickpeas 3

(Garbanzo, Smaller

 than 20/64 in.)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

Large Chickpeas 3

(Garbanzo, Larger

 than 20/64 in)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

1,950

1,880

1,350

1,810

1,570

1,350

2,280

1,699

2,520

1,150

1,676

1,750

1,920

1,580

1,700

2,000

1,800

1,320

2,270

1,565

2,450

1,300

1,703

1,000

900

1,560

1,130

1,000

1,071

900

900

400

700

1,580

1,200

1,140

1,020

997

1,500

1,970

1,770

950

2,000

1,040

800

2,580

1,466

2,330

900

1,452

1,250

800

750

1,460

1,185

1,790

1,250

1,410

890

1,140

1,680

1,280

1,180

1,349

76

2,030

139

38

91

689

57

3,120

313

230

543

7

25

680

78

20

142

277

34

1,263

395

390

785

16

18

14

9

3

60

85

81

4

14

60

24

8

81

357

15

57

1,290

57

46

93

250

67

1,875

235

144

379

35

4

6

19

64

120

144

24

8

24

37

32

114

503

 1 Missing data are included in "Other" class to avoid disclosure of individual operations or no data were reported. 2 Clean Basis. 3 Estimates began in 2003.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 14 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2002-2004 1

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

 Chickpeas, All

 (Garbanzo)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

 Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NY

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

18.5

17.0

12.7

8.6

4.0

10.3

14.4

85.5

10.2

6.0

1.0

2.0

8.0

3.6

0.7

7.3

2.0

4.6

4.0

3.5

10.0

0.8

2.0

65.7

9.7

11.0

3.2

2.2

5.0

2.4

1.8

8.2

43.5

7.5

4.0

1.8

10.0

4.8

0.1

2.6

1.6

6.5

1.9

2.7

15.0

1.6

1.0

61.1

7.0

14.5

2.2

1.0

3.5

2.3

3.8

9.8

44.1

11.2

4.0

2.4

6.0

4.7

4.7

1.5

2.5

1.3

1.1

1.5

3.4

1.0

45.3

18.0

16.6

9.6

6.2

3.5

5.8

14.4

74.1

9.2

5.0

1.0

1.5

8.0

3.2

0.5

2.8

2.0

4.0

3.2

3.5

8.0

0.8

1.6

54.3

9.4

10.6

3.0

2.0

4.7

2.0

1.5

8.2

41.4

7.3

3.0

1.8

10.0

4.5

0.1

2.5

1.6

6.2

1.5

2.7

13.5

1.6

0.9

57.2

6.7

14.3

2.2

0.9

2.9

2.2

3.8

9.7

42.7

10.9

3.0

2.3

5.5

4.4

4.4

1.5

2.1

1.0

1.1

1.5

3.0

0.9

41.6

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 15 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2002-2004 1 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 2 Production 2

2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

 Chickpeas, All

 (Garbanzo)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

 Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NY

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

1,600

1,280

760

1,470

770

430

1,010

1,162

2,020

1,500

2,100

1,600

1,530

1,530

700

1,750

1,200

1,400

2,420

1,910

700

2,000

2,130

1,584

900

920

730

700

1,570

1,200

1,130

1,020

1,007

1,030

1,700

2,110

1,380

1,400

2,000

1,600

1,940

1,350

1,800

2,000

850

2,060

2,330

1,350

1,790

1,250

1,270

890

1,030

1,680

1,340

1,180

1,328

1,560

1,900

2,220

1,360

1,050

1,910

730

1,000

1,600

2,270

470

2,270

2,220

1,565

288

212

73

91

27

25

145

861

186

75

21

24

122

49

4

49

24

56

77

67

56

16

34

860

85

97

22

14

74

24

17

84

417

75

51

38

138

63

2

40

31

84

27

54

115

33

21

772

120

179

28

8

30

37

51

114

567

170

57

51

75

46

84

11

21

16

25

7

68

20

651

 1 Missing data are included in "Other" class to avoid disclosure of individual operations or no data were reported. 2 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 16 NASS, USDA

Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2002-2003 and Forecasted December 1, 2004

Crop and State

Utilized Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

Native & Seedling

 AL

 AR 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

All Pecans

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

4,000

16,000

1,200

3,800

500

42,000

2,000

2,100

36,000

1,500

1,500

120

20,000

130,720

1,000

500

900

3,000

2,900

4,000

900

400

8,500

80

20,000

42,180

5,000

16,000

1,700

3,800

1,400

45,000

2,900

6,000

3,000

36,000

1,900

10,000

200

40,000

172,900

7,000

22,500

1,400

3,700

500

60,000

4,000

4,800

55,000

2,200

1,500

3,300

37,000

202,900

1,000

2,400

1,600

15,000

2,000

16,000

2,200

300

4,500

1,200

33,000

79,200

8,000

22,500

3,800

3,700

2,100

75,000

2,000

20,000

7,000

55,000

2,500

6,000

4,500

70,000

282,100

950

13,000

1,300

3,400

200

35,000

2,000

700

37,000

600

4,000

1,500

28,000

127,650

50

900

300

5,000

2,500

6,000

300

100

22,000

500

12,000

49,650

1,000

13,000

2,200

3,400

500

40,000

2,500

8,000

1,000

37,000

700

26,000

2,000

40,000

177,300

 1 Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 17 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use,

State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted December 1, 2004

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Nov 1 Dec 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

419.0

19.9

450.0

41.7

930.6

19.0

1.4

40.0

1.3

61.7

438.0

21.3

490.0

43.0

992.3

405.0

22.5

440.0

40.8

908.3

15.0

1.6

35.0

1.5

53.1

420.0

24.1

475.0

42.3

961.4

39.3

102.0

26.2

39.7

34.3

40.2

37.3

26.2

40.2

31.1

39.3

97.7

26.2

39.7

34.1

36.0

94.0

24.0

37.0

31.6

36.0

98.0

24.0

37.0

31.8

36.0

37.0

24.0

37.0

28.2

36.0

93.9

24.0

37.0

31.6

16,467

2,030

11,790

1,655

31,942

764

52

1,048

52

1,916

17,231

2,082

12,838

1,707

33,858

14,580

2,205

10,560

1,510

28,855

540

59

840

56

1,495

15,120

2,264

11,400

1,566

30,350

 1 Net tons.

Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

Hawaii 2002-2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

Acres Acres Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

HI 5,900 5,900 5,800 1,270 1,410 1,220 7,500 8,300 7,100

 1 Parchment basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 18 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,348.0

78,736.0

4,597.0

730.0

3,022.0

1,348.0

9,420.0

62,141.0

45,384.0

2,915.0

13,842.0

1,082.0

595.0

110.0

1,344.0

1.3

221.0

73,404.0

2,344.0

13,479.6

13,301.0

178.6

1,365.4

21.1

1,406.1

337.5

246.0

1,272.6

14.6

88.6

63.4

1,106.0

95.8

4,527.0

80,968.0

4,085.0

720.0

3,364.0

1,380.0

7,528.0

59,674.0

43,350.0

2,561.0

13,763.0

868.0

629.0

68.5

1,429.0

11.8

142.0

75,065.0

1,864.0

13,763.0

13,508.0

255.0

1,349.8

30.5

1,359.3

527.0

345.0

1,194.7

18.7

73.5

58.8

1,043.7

99.1

4,727.0

71,139.0

6,528.0

63,342.0

23,578.0

39,764.0

2,220.0

620.0

2,997.0

319.0

7,798.0

343.0

53,063.0

36,753.0

2,869.0

13,441.0

1,068.0

583.0

107.0

1,312.0

1.2

212.0

72,476.0

2,197.0

12,003.4

11,826.0

177.4

1,347.9

992.3

411.2

15.6

1,346.9

328.5

237.0

5.9

0.2

28.7

78.2

1,248.6

14.3

84.7

58.7

1,090.9

15.8

92.6

0.4

4,021.0

73,311.0

61,589.0

22,226.0

39,363.0

1,792.0

3,334.0

320.0

6,559.0

49,999.0

34,462.0

2,363.0

13,174.0

832.0

608.0

65.9

1,388.0

11.4

133.0

73,990.0

1,780.0

13,223.0

12,970.0

253.0

1,326.0

961.4

409.6

21.5

1,225.4

500.8

322.0

5.8

0.2

28.0

1,169.8

18.5

71.7

55.1

1,024.5

96.3

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 19 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.9

142.2

16.2

2.48

3.24

2.03

65.0

18.5

6,645

27.1

52.7

10.4

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.5

1,416

17.9

723

3,159

949

1,286

33.9

1,213

730

723

1,170

22.7

34.1

1,952

1,115

1,670

1,584

1,030

1,410

37,500

1,903

89

367

282

288

320

376

113

172

69.4

160.2

2.69

3.48

2.25

64.7

6,828

26.9

71.9

43.2

43.5

38.0

43.2

1,517

3,027

42.6

1,346

828

818

1,366

22.4

31.6

2,156

1,265

1,479

2,163

1,268

1,220

40,000

1,982

385

260

266

336

398

278,283

10,113,887

105,864

157,123

76,307

80,816

144,383

11,450

199,157

8,634

411,237

3,552

2,344,760

1,716,721

96,637

531,402

1,512,250

6,664.6

10,426

77,372

4,144,150

1,139

272,555

2,453,665

2,665,226

18,255.2

17,822.9

432.3

30,583

33,858

802,654

174

22,492

5,202

2,442

673

8,300

6,000

54,565.1

6,924

457,814

4,027

24,433

18,766

410,588

1,778

15,891

5,000

279,253

11,740,920

165,920

77,371

88,549

115,935

227,650

8,615

471,572

2,158,245

1,499,434

89,893

568,918

1,261,820

8,344.0

4,201,350

3,150,441

2,395,199

22,815.0

22,095.0

720.0

29,765

30,350

883,168

272

18,118

10,831

4,084

7,100

6,000

55,537.9

450,168

4,818

19,077

18,487

407,786

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 20 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2003 2004 2005

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA) 3

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

Ton

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,063

1,026

11,545

105

382

59

8,613.3

97.6

22,500.0

6,572.7

118.0

42,600.0

1,259.5

928.1

181.0

16.3

1,040,000

37.9

282,100

119,000

326.0

1,260

2,152

798

12,930

45

435

63

9,458.9

95.6

6,073.0

85.0

1,299.2

908.0

70.0

24.5

1,080,000

44.0

177,300

325.0

1,507

970

832

9,982

50

342

36

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2002-03, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3 September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released on January 25, 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 21 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,164,280

31,863,670

1,860,360

295,420

1,222,970

545,520

3,812,180

25,147,840

18,366,450

1,179,670

5,601,720

437,870

240,790

44,520

543,900

530

89,440

29,705,860

948,590

5,455,060

5,382,780

72,280

552,560

8,540

569,030

136,580

99,550

515,010

5,910

35,860

25,660

447,590

38,770

1,832,030

32,766,940

1,653,160

291,380

1,361,380

558,470

3,046,510

24,149,470

17,543,310

1,036,410

5,569,750

351,270

254,550

27,720

578,300

4,780

57,470

30,378,050

754,340

5,569,750

5,466,550

103,200

546,250

12,340

550,100

213,270

139,620

483,480

7,570

29,740

23,800

422,370

40,100

1,912,970

28,789,240

2,641,820

25,633,870

9,541,780

16,092,090

898,410

250,910

1,212,860

129,100

3,155,770

138,810

21,474,070

14,873,570

1,161,060

5,439,440

432,210

235,930

43,300

530,950

490

85,790

29,330,310

889,100

4,857,660

4,785,860

71,790

545,480

401,570

166,390

6,310

545,080

132,940

95,910

2,390

60

11,600

31,650

505,300

5,790

34,280

23,760

441,480

6,390

37,470

170

1,627,260

29,668,230

24,924,450

8,994,640

15,929,810

725,200

1,349,240

129,500

2,654,360

20,234,100

13,946,430

956,280

5,331,390

336,700

246,050

26,670

561,710

4,610

53,820

29,943,010

720,350

5,351,220

5,248,830

102,390

536,620

389,070

165,770

8,700

495,910

202,670

130,310

2,350

60

11,340

473,410

7,490

29,020

22,300

414,600

38,970

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 22 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.17

8.92

36.35

5.56

7.25

4.56

2.33

1.03

7.45

1.70

3.31

23.21

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.66

1.59

1.12

0.81

3.54

1.06

1.44

2.28

1.36

0.82

0.81

1.31

50.86

76.49

2.19

1.25

1.87

1.77

1.15

1.58

42.03

2.13

0.10

41.10

31.56

32.33

35.83

42.19

0.13

19.23

3.74

10.05

6.04

7.80

5.04

2.32

7.65

1.69

4.51

2.90

2.93

2.56

2.90

1.70

3.39

2.86

1.51

0.93

0.92

1.53

50.32

70.77

2.42

1.42

1.66

2.42

1.42

1.37

44.83

2.22

43.13

29.19

29.82

37.61

44.61

6,058,900

256,904,560

96,038,210

142,539,590

69,224,550

73,315,040

2,095,710

259,680

9,033,610

219,310

10,445,900

3,222,320

63,813,910

46,721,490

2,630,030

14,462,390

685,950

6,046,020

264,830

35,100

1,879,750

520

123,630

66,777,820

1,208,930

3,974,600

3,880,480

94,120

27,744,430

30,715,460

364,080

7,890

1,020,220

235,960

110,770

30,530

3,760

2,720

24,750

3,140

20,766,100

182,660

1,108,260

851,210

18,623,960

810

720,800

2,270

6,080,020

298,233,100

150,520,090

70,189,790

80,330,300

1,682,790

10,326,030

218,830

11,978,480

58,737,800

40,807,910

2,446,490

15,483,410

572,350

7,569,550

1,905,700

85,740,950

1,086,440

4,967,380

4,810,620

156,760

27,002,350

27,533,060

400,600

12,340

821,820

491,290

185,250

3,220

2,720

25,190

20,419,280

218,540

865,320

838,560

18,496,860

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 23 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2003 2004 2005

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA) 3

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

95,250

346,540

53,520

3,906,930

88,520

10,210

5,962,680

107,050

19,320

1,142,600

841,910

164,200

14,790

471,740

34,380

127,960

53,980

295,740

6,300

1,952,260

723,930

11,729,900

40,820

394,630

57,150

4,290,490

86,680

5,509,330

77,110

1,178,610

823,760

63,500

22,230

489,880

39,920

80,420

294,840

7,530

879,970

754,780

9,055,520

45,360

310,260

32,660

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05. 3 September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 25, 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 24 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States

during 2004. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to

obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 2000-2004 1

State Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

CA

GA

LA

MS

NC

TX

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

874

767

755

755

755

760

790

801

800

800

597

631

621

629

629

722

692

674

674

674

657

665

652

650

650

670

724

743

747

747

408

388

397

404

448

747

780

816

756

756

939

902

921

918

918

590

677

651

664

664

625

592

582

588

588

754

696

680

679

679

719

722

696

705

705

441

435

439

445

445

840

763

784

772

772

945

1,041

1,009

1,011

1,011

569

604

591

600

608

663

756

749

742

742

802

783

768

767

767

636

629

560

567

564

536

511

520

497

497

798

755

744

744

744

973

945

893

893

893

559

646

643

665

664

681

778

775

775

775

837

824

811

808

808

628

630

632

632

632

465

431

429

435

433

864

771

753

754

954

952

945

948

646

690

686

687

635

707

691

691

808

789

780

780

758

719

732

733

639

672

593

624

 1 Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially

opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 25 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 26 NASS, USDA

November Weather Summary

Incessant precipitation on the southern Plains stressed livestock, threatened open-boll cotton, and limited

fieldwork, including cotton, sorghum, and peanut harvesting. Wet weather across the southern Corn Belt and

much of the South also hampered fieldwork, including winter wheat planting and final summer crop

harvesting. Especially wet conditions prevailed from the western Gulf Coast region to the Delta, where

monthly rainfall locally in excess of one foot caused lowland flooding and left standing water in some fields. 

In contrast, mostly dry weather across the upper Midwest promoted late-season corn and sunflower

harvesting. Generally dry conditions also prevailed on the northern High Plains, where mild weather favored

winter wheat development, despite limited soil moisture reserves. Elsewhere on the Plains, soil moisture

remained adequate to locally excessive in key winter wheat areas. From the Rockies westward, meanwhile,

stormy weather in the Great Basin and the Four Corners States contrasted with drier-than-normal conditions

in the Northwest. Southwestern storminess continued to provide limited relief from a multi-year drought, but

meager high-elevation snowpacks in the northern Rockies became an increasing concern. Late in the month,

back-to-back snowstorms disrupted pre-Thanksgiving travel in the Midwest and post-holiday travel from the

Intermountain West to the central Plains, respectively.

Cool, unsettled weather in the Southwest contrasted with mild, mostly dry weather across the northern Plains

and upper Midwest. Monthly temperatures averaged as much as 6 degrees F below normal in southern

California, but ranged from 4 to 8 degrees F above normal from Montana to the upper Mississippi Valley. 

The Southwestern chill was most pronounced toward month’s end, when freezes as far south as California’s

Imperial Valley forced some winter crop producers to take protective measures, including the activation of

sprinkler systems, to guard against damage. East of the Rockies, cooler-than-normal weather (as much as

4 degrees F below normal) was confined to the southern High Plains, while near-normal temperatures were

observed along the Atlantic Seaboard. Readings generally ranged from 2 to 6 degrees F above normal from

the central Gulf Coast region northward to the Great Lakes States.

November Agricultural Summary

Above-normal temperatures prevailed across most of the Nation. Only in the central and southern High

Plains, the Southwest, and parts of the Pacific Northwest did temperatures average below normal. Heavy

rainfall severely hampered fieldwork in the southern Great Plains, where summer crop harvest trailed well

behind normal. Heavy rainfall also limited fieldwork in the Mississippi Delta and adjacent areas of the

Southeast. The southern Atlantic Coast was mostly dry, favoring cotton and peanut harvesting, while

moderate precipitation fell in the central and northern Atlantic Coast States. Mostly dry conditions prevailed

across the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt, but harvest continued to lag well behind normal due

to delayed crop development and maturation. Across the central Corn Belt, corn and soybean harvesting

proceeded at a near-normal pace, with only minor delays from moderate rainfall. Snow began to accumulate

in the northern and central Rocky Mountains and the Great Basin. Moderate to heavy precipitation fell in the

coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest, while the crop-producing areas further inland were mostly dry,

allowing winter wheat planting to progress at or near the normal pace.

Less than two-thirds of the Nation’s corn crop was harvested at the beginning of the month, mostly due to

delayed development in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt. By month’s end, harvest had

advanced to 95 percent complete, compared with 99 percent for last year and the 5-year average. At that time,

harvest was complete in the Southeast and Texas and nearly complete in most other States. However,

progress continued to lag behind in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt. With just 75 percent of

their acreage harvested as of November 28, North Dakota growers were over 4 weeks behind their normal

pace. Harvest was also 3 weeks behind normal in Minnesota and 2 weeks behind in Wisconsin.

The sorghum crop reached 95 percent mature on November 7, two percentage points ahead of last year but

3 points behind the 5-year average. Maturation was at or near completion everywhere except New Mexico,

Oklahoma, and Texas. Harvest continued to lag well behind normal during November. At month’s end,

85 percent of the acreage had been harvested, 7 points behind last year and 11 points behind normal. 

Progress was 3 weeks behind normal nationwide and at least 1 week behind in all States, except Arkansas and

Louisiana, where harvest was complete before the end of October. Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri growers

were 3 weeks behind normal, while Oklahoma and Texas producers trailed their normal harvest pace by

4 weeks.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 27 NASS, USDA

On November 21, ninety-five percent of the winter wheat crop had been planted, 3 points behind last year and

1 point behind normal. Planting was complete across the Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and northern

and central Great Plains and nearly complete in the Corn Belt. However, in Arkansas and Missouri, just

73 percent of the acreage had been planted, 17 and 22 points behind normal, respectively. Emergence

progressed ahead of the normal pace throughout the month. By November 28, ninety-three percent of the

crop had emerged, 1 point behind last year but 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Although emergence

trailed 1 week behind normal in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, progress was at or ahead of normal

in most other States.

The soybean harvest continued to trail the normal pace, reaching 95 percent complete on November 21,

three points behind last year and the 5-year average. At that time, growers in Iowa, Louisiana, Mississippi,

Nebraska, and South Dakota had finished harvesting their crop at or ahead of the normal pace. However,

progress was behind normal in most other States, with Kansas, Missouri, and Tennessee producers trailing

their normal harvest pace by 10 points.

Harvesting of sunflower progressed rapidly during the month. On October 31, just 25 percent of the acreage

had been harvested, compared with 89 percent last year and 76 percent for the 5-year average. However,

harvest had advanced to 92 percent complete by month’s end, just 8 points behind last year and 5 points

behind normal. Colorado growers had completed harvesting their acreage ahead of the normal pace, but

progress was behind normal across the Great Plains. In Kansas, only 85 percent of the acreage had been

harvested, 3 weeks behind normal.

Ninety-five percent of the Nation’s peanut acreage had been harvested by the end of the month, 3 points

behind last year and 2 points behind normal. Harvest was nearly complete across the Southeast, with only

Florida growers having fields left to be harvested. In the southern Great Plains, however, harvest was

hampered by heavy rainfall and lagged behind normal. Texas producers had harvested just 75 percent of their

acreage, compared with 92 percent last year and 85 percent for the average.

On November 7, bolls were open on 95 percent of the cotton acreage, 2 points behind last year and 4 points

behind normal. Boll opening was complete or nearly completed in all States, except Texas, where only

88 percent of the crop had open bolls, compared with the normal 98 percent. Harvest progressed slowly

during the month, advancing just 22 points. By month’s end, 75 percent of the acreage was harvested,

compared with 83 percent last year and 85 percent for the 5-year average. In the southern Great Plains,

harvest was hampered by heavy rainfall and wet conditions, lagging 3 weeks behind normal in Oklahoma and

4 weeks behind in Texas. Harvest also lagged slightly behind normal in the Southwest. However, Louisiana

and Mississippi growers had completed harvesting their crops, and progress was slightly ahead of normal

across most of the Southeast. 

The sugarbeet harvest was 96 percent complete on November 7, two points behind last year and 1 point

behind normal. Harvest was nearly complete in the Red River Valley, where Minnesota and North Dakota

growers had harvested 99 percent of their acreage. Harvest was 92 percent complete in Idaho and 86 percent

complete in Michigan.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 13.0 million acres, is unchanged from November but 10 percent

more than last year. American-Pima harvested area, at 253,000 acres, is also unchanged from last month but

up 43 percent from the 2003 harvested acres. 

In the Southeastern States, growers were able to make significant harvest progress despite isolated

thunderstorms. Most gins were operating at or near capacity. Objective yield data show above average boll

counts in North Carolina and the highest average boll weight of the previous five years.

Delta cotton harvest continued under adverse weather conditions. Lower Delta growers were virtually done

with harvest by the end of the month. Producers in the northern region of the Delta encountered more rain

showers, which delayed harvest in saturated fields. Boll counts and average boll weights in Mississippi and

Louisiana are above the 15-year average. Boll counts in Arkansas are slightly above the 15-year average and

boll weights are the highest on record.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 28 NASS, USDA

Texas and Oklahoma experienced rain and snow throughout the month of November which caused harvest

delays. By the end of the month, harvest was at least three weeks behind the 5-year average in both States. 

Some of the producers experienced cotton falling on the ground due to excessive rainfall. Objective yield

measurements show Texas boll counts and the average boll weights are the highest in the 15-year data series.

Harvest of upland cotton in California was near completion by the end of November despite the cool, wet

conditions early in the month. The Arizona harvest was delayed due to frequent scattered showers. Arizona

producers are about one week behind their normal harvest pace. Data from objective yield measurements

show California boll counts are the second highest in the 15-year data series, surpassed only by 2002. Boll

weights are below the 15-year average, but the highest since 1998. 

American-Pima production is forecast at 720,000 bales, unchanged from the November forecast but

67 percent higher than last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,366 pounds per harvested acre. California

growers are expecting a yield of 1,425 pounds. Harvest progressed normally during most of November. 

Mid-month rains briefly interrupted the harvest in California and central Arizona. Scattered showers toward

the end of November slowed the harvest in Arizona, New Mexico, and west Texas. 

All cotton ginned prior to December 1 totaled 14,722,150 running bales, compared with 13,465,900 running

bales ginned by the same date last year and 12,367,650 running bales ginned in 2002.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.67 million pounds for November, down

18 percent from last month and 14 percent lower than a year ago. This is a seasonal production decline as

cooler temperatures slow fruit maturation. Area in crop totaled 2,100 acres, unchanged from last month but

5 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,365 acres, unchanged from last month but 14 percent

below November 2003. Favorable weather conditions kept orchards in mostly good to fair condition. Soil

moisture in non-irrigated orchards has been adequate.

Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 18.1 million cwt for 2004, down 3 percent from

the October forecast and 19 percent below last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.23 million acres,

2 percent below the last forecast and down 9 percent from 2003. The average U.S. yield is forecast at

1,479 pounds per acre, a decrease of 16 pounds from the October forecast and 191 pounds below a year ago. 

Production is below a year ago in 12 of the 18 producing States. Most notable is a 39 percent production

decrease from last year in both Minnesota and North Dakota where an early frost in mid-August severely

damaged the crop. Production is down from a year ago for large lima, baby lima, navy, great northern, pinto,

light red kidney, dark red kidney, pink, and blackeye. Production increased from last year for small white,

small red, cranberry, black, and small and large chickpeas. 

Production in North Dakota is forecast at 4.75 million cwt, 39 percent below 2003. The average yield, at

1,000 pounds per acre, is down 500 pounds from last year and harvested acres decreased 9 percent. Yields

were down because of the mid-August frost. Harvest was essentially complete by mid-November, a month

behind average due to a late maturing crop.

In Nebraska, production is forecast at 2.38 million cwt, 25 percent below last year. Harvested acres, at

110,000, is 26 percent below 2003, while yield of 2,160 pounds per acre is 30 pounds above last season. If

realized, this yield will be a record high. Irrigation water was adequate and growing conditions were good. 

Minnesota growers are expecting to produce 1.15 million cwt of dry beans, 39 percent below last year. The

average yield, at 1,150 pounds per acre, is down 550 pounds from the previous year. Lower yields are due to

frost and very wet conditions in northwest Minnesota. Production in California decreased 6 percent due to a

decrease in harvested acres. Heavy rains in late October and early November delayed harvest and drove some

operators to abandon some acres. Production in Texas is down 71 percent from last year, New York is down

45 percent, Kansas 34 percent, Wyoming 20 percent, and New Mexico 16 percent. Wisconsin is 13 percent

below last year, Utah is 12 percent lower, and Oregon is down 3 percent from a year ago. 

In Michigan, production is forecast at 3.15 million cwt, up 27 percent from the previous year. The average

yield, at 1,700 pounds per acre, increased 200 pounds. Growing conditions were near optimal and harvest

was completed ahead of normal. Idaho production is expected to be 9 percent above the previous year at

1.64 million cwt. Wet weather this fall delayed harvest for some farmers. Colorado production, at

1.27 million cwt, is an increase of 9 percent from 2003. Growing conditions in Colorado were good for
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 29 NASS, USDA

irrigated acreages but dryland beans were stressed by lack of moisture. Production in South Dakota increased

23 percent, Montana 17 percent, and Washington 16 percent.

Grapefruit: The forecast for the 2004-05 U.S. grapefruit crop is 970,000 tons, down 8 percent from the

November 1 forecast. Florida’s grapefruit forecast is 13.0 million boxes (553,000 tons), down 13 percent

from the November forecast and 68 percent lower than last season. The reduction includes decreases of

1 million boxes in both the colored and the white varieties. If realized, this will be the lowest utilization since

the 1935-36 season. Final utilization could differ from the forecast, if total fruit loss due to the hurricanes is

different than currently projected. 

The all white grapefruit forecast, at 3.00 million boxes (128,000 tons), is down 25 percent from the

November forecast and 81 percent less than last season. Drop rate for white grapefruit has been higher than

expected and is now projected at 17 percent. The colored seedless utilization forecast, at 10.0 million boxes

(425,000 tons), is down 9 percent from the November forecast and 60 percent less than the 2003-04 season. 

Fruit size is smaller with the number of fruit required to fill a box now projected at 96, up from 88 used in the

previous forecast. Fruit drop rate has also increased more than expected, and the percent of loss to harvest is

now projected at 18 percent. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried over

from October.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast, at 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), is down 21 percent from

November 1 but 10 percent more than last season’s utilized production. Fruit size is smaller and drop rate is

higher than projected in November. These two factors are included in the forecast model and contribute to

this month’s downward adjustment.

Tangerines: The December 1 tangerine crop forecast, at 342,000 tons, is down 3 percent from the November 

forecast and 21 percent below last season’s utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop is forecast at

4.50 million boxes (214,000 tons), down 4 percent from the November forecast and 31 percent lower than last

season’s utilization. The decrease is in the early variety tangerines. Fallglo harvest is complete. Sunburst

harvest is underway for the holiday season with commercial, gift fruit, and fundraising shipments. Late

Honey variety average fruit size ties with the second smallest in the last 10 years. The droppage rate forecast,

at 40 percent, is slightly above average. Arizona and California tangerine production forecasts are carried

over from October.

Temples: Florida’s Temples December 1 forecast, at 800,000 boxes (36,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season, is

unchanged from November but 43 percent below last season’s final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. Fruit

drop rates continue as projected in the November forecast, however, fruit size is smaller but not severely

enough to alter the forecast.

Florida Citrus: Florida’s citrus areas had warm and dry weather over the entire month of November. 

Temperatures were mostly at or above average. Several weak weather fronts passed through the State

bringing slightly cooler temperatures. Rainfall was at or below average levels all month with limited showers

ahead of the cool fronts. While lakes and canals remain generally above normal levels, surface soil moisture

is mostly depleted following the dry weather of October and November. Growers are irrigating on irregular

schedules to maintain moisture around the tree roots and to maintain tree vigor. Many trees in areas affected

by the hurricanes continue to look battered but show new leaves. Harvest began in October and increased

during November. Early orange varieties, including Navels and Hamlins, Sunburst tangerines, white and

colored grapefruit, and tangelos are being shipped fresh. Harvest of Ambersweet oranges and Fallglow

tangerines is complete. Several processors opened to receive eliminations in October and others opened in

late November to start receiving field run oranges. Growers continue with clean up operations in groves

where trees were blown over by the hurricanes and with normal fall cultural practices. 

California Citrus: Citrus growers continued applications of fungicides and pre-emergent herbicides. Citrus

crops harvested included Navel oranges, Oro Blanco and Melo Gold grapefruit, lemons, and pummelos. 

Harvesting in some areas was slowed by cold weather conditions throughout November. However, the cooler

weather caused rind color to improve significantly in Navels. Splits were the major quality problem with

harvested Navels. Some Valencia orange groves are being pulled and replaced with clementines, mandarins,

and tangerines.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 30 NASS, USDA

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers conducted cultural activities that included pruning,

cultivating, and spraying of trees and vines. Growers removed old or non-productive orchards and grafted

new varieties onto established trees. Harvest of table grapes ended in most locations by the middle of

November. With the completion of the table grape harvest, growers began to add soil amendments and prune

vines in most locations. Some growers were pushing out, stacking, and burning old vines. Application of

pre-emergent herbicides continued in both tree fruit orchards and grape vineyards. Harvesting of

pomegranates, kiwifruit, and Fuya and Hachiya persimmons continued, with good yields reported in kiwifruit

and pomegranate orchards. Quince was harvested in Tulare County. Strawberries were harvested in the San

Joaquin Valley. The olive harvest was complete in most locations by mid-month. Growers began pruning

activities in olive orchards. The Zutano avocado harvest commenced during the end of November. Growers

continued pruning and brush clearing activities in nut orchards with many of these orchards also being treated

with pre-emergent herbicides. Almond and walnut harvesting in orchards with nuts on the ground was nearly

complete, but there were still many stockpiled nuts to be hulled and shelled. Pistachios and pecans were

harvested.

Pecans: Utilized production is forecast at 177 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 6 percent from the

October 1 forecast and 37 percent below last year’s crop. Improved varieties are expected to produce

128 million pounds or 72 percent of the total, while the Native and seedling varieties make up the difference. 

Since October, Texas and Oklahoma have experienced above average rainfall, resulting in harvest delays and

lost or damaged nuts. These two States account for the 6 percent decrease from the October forecast. The

current U.S. crop is expected to be lower than last year’s mainly due to the alternate bearing pattern typical of

pecans. In addition to being a low year in this cycle, the Southeastern States noted high disease pressure early

in the growing season caused by excessive rainfall, followed by widespread damage to trees and nuts due to

the hurricanes and tropical storms in August and September. Western growing areas reported some drought

and insect concerns, but overall a good, low year crop. 

The Georgia production forecast is 40.0 million pounds, unchanged from October, but 47 percent below last

year and down 11 percent from the last low crop in 2002. The Texas production forecast, at 40.0 million

pounds, is 20 percent below the October forecast and down 43 percent from the 2003 crop. Growers in

Texas’ coastal areas reported scab caused by excessive rain, while growing conditions in other parts of the

State were generally better. Above average rainfall since October has reduced this year’s crop potential since

the initial forecast. New Mexico’s forecast of 37.0 million pounds is unchanged from October. This

represents a 33 percent decrease from last year but a 3 percent increase from two years ago.

Oklahoma forecasts a 26.0 million-pound pecan crop, down 7 percent from October. If realized, this forecast

is still more than 4 times larger than last year’s crop of 6.00 million pounds and more than double the 2002

crop. The decreased production forecast from October is mostly attributed to less-than-ideal harvest

conditions and lost nuts due to excess rainfall. Production in Arizona is forecast at 13.0 million pounds,

unchanged from October, but 42 percent below last year and 19 percent less than two years ago. The

Louisiana forecast of 8.00 million pounds is also unchanged from October. If realized, Louisiana pecan

production is down 60 percent from last year but 33 percent higher than the 2002 hurricane-damaged crop.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2004 is forecast at 30.4 million tons, unchanged

from the November forecast but 10 percent below 2003. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 961,400 acres

for sugar and seed during the 2004 crop year, the same as November but 3 percent less than last year’s revised

harvested area of 992,300 acres. Yield is forecast at 31.6 tons per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast

but 2.5 tons below the revised 2003 yield of 34.1 tons per acre.

In Florida, mild conditions allowed harvest to proceed normally. Louisiana’s yield forecast of 24.0 tons per

acre, if realized, would be the lowest since 1993, when growers harvested 22.8 tons per acre.

Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 7.10 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 2004-05

season, down14 percent from the previous crop year. Harvested area is estimated at 5,800 acres, down

2 percent from the 2003-04 season. Coffee production from the islands of Kauai, Maui, Molokai, and Oahu

is forecast at 4.10 million pounds for the 2004-05 season, down 5 percent from last season. Hawaii island is

forecast to harvest 3.00 million pounds, down 25 percent from the previous season. Heavy spring rains and

windy conditions hampered flower survival and slowed fruit development in the Kona area. A wet winter is

expected to result in a smaller crop but prolonged harvest season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 31 NASS, USDA

Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecast

Cotton Survey Procedures: Objective yield surveys were conducted between November 24 and

December 1 to gather information on expected yields as of December 1. The objective yield survey for cotton

was conducted in producing States that usually account for approximately 75 percent of the U.S. production. 

At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field,

another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the December 1 forecast was conducted

in Florida, which produces about 79 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of

bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement

and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California,

and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. 

California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for

Valencia oranges.

Cotton Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield estimates for cotton were reviewed

for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. For cotton, reports from cotton ginners

in each State were also considered. Each cotton State Statistical Office submits their analyses of the current

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to

prepare the published December 1 forecast.

Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for

errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida State Statistical Office submits

its analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida

survey data and their analyses to prepare the published December 1 forecast. Reports from growers and

packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. The December 1 orange

production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from October. 

Revision Policy: The December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. For cotton, a new estimate will

be made in January followed by end-of-season revisions in May. Administrative records are reviewed and

revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a

production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the

last estimate.

For oranges, the December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root

Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between

the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. 

The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of

the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made

concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming

that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.7 percent. This means that

chances are 2 out of 3 that the current cotton production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate

by more than 1.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not

exceed 2.9 percent. 

Changes between the December 1 cotton forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have

averaged 210,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast for cotton has been

below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. The difference does not imply that the December 1

forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 32 NASS, USDA

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 orange production forecast is 8.2 percent. However, if

you exclude the five freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 4.1 percent. This means that chances

are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by

more than 8.2 percent or 4.1 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 14.2 percent or 7.3 percent, excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the December 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have

averaged 529,000 tons (361,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 1,000 tons to 2.01 million tons

(1,000 tons to 752,000 tons, excluding freezes). The December 1 forecast for oranges has been below the

final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 8 times and above 7 times, excluding freeze seasons). The

difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final

production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2004 33 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
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