RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS
:ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR 10-YEAR RECORD OF
: DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
AND FINAL ESTIMATE

CROP AND ft UEVEL) tte -- 222-222 22-22-2222 222 ne2e-
UNIT : : QUANTITY — :NO. OF YEARS
: : BELOW: ABOVE
AVG: SMALL: LARGE : FINAL : FINAL
MIL -- MIL -----
FEED GRAINS 1/ MT: 3.30 5.7 3:: 5 2 13 8 2
CORN FOR GRAIN BU: 4.1 7.1 «529 :: 183 300 538 73
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN BU: 4.3 7.4 49:: 23 1 #959 6 4
RICE CWT: 2.5 4.4 7:23.44 24 5.9 6 4
SOYBEANS FOR : :
BEANS BU: 3.6 6.3 121:: 56 9 118 4 6
COTTON BALES 2/: 5.0 8.7 1,043 :: 462 170 1,424 6 4
DRY EDIBLE :. :
BEANS Oo 6.

1/ CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1980-89 (1977=100)

PRODUCTION

YEAR > HAY: : : : :
ALL Vv: FEED : AND =: FOOD : SUGAR : COTTON : TOBACCO : OIL
3 : GRAINS : FORAGE : GRAINS : CROPS : : :CROPS
1980 : 101 97 98 121 97 79 93 99
1981 =: 117 121 106 144 107 109 108 114
1982: 117 122 109 138 96 85 104 121
1983: 88 67 100 117 93 55 75 91
1984: 111 116 107 129 95 91 90 106
1985 : 117 134 106 121 97 93 79 117
1986 : 107 123 106 107 106 68 61 107
1987: 106 105 102 106 Ill 103 62 106
1988: 89 73 88 98 105 107 72 89
1989 : 104 107 102 107 110 83 77 107

1/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS
OF CROPS SHOWN.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-20 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
[SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

eeeaanaiy SEPT 30, 1989

ISSUED WEEKLY
FAVORABLY>
MOIST”

FAVORABLY.
MOIST

— i Cor
ABNORMALLY ~-7 QB
LZ

ABNORMALLY
MOIST

WEEE, AnD INDICATES NOMAL CONDITIONS AT THE BRGES-
lwtxe' axD mom oF THE GROHTNG SEASON.

FAVORABLY
MOIST

w@ascuinc Tax snoxt rea
TESS

sudirey

‘nop a a N 36 KCEssivety
Srrocr Peoria, Gu fou, Coot grason qhors caoerag A

fran tae rine taseren Vaasa) beseoee oh at Wor Guana psietive nL ZA NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY

Jon prahenary report

DROUGHT SEVERITY

5 (LONG TERM, PALMER)
EXTREME : .
7 soot 7 SEPT 30, 1989 ‘T CHART ON OCT 31
7A SEVERE! I
ee Ya EXTREME
(~?/ Zt ,
o~
4
= =
SEVERE ©
We
moverate!
V
extreme EE Sree
’ z——*
“ fi
oy aa
2 Ey, 7 |
‘SEVERE NZ N
MODERATE,

pgousr,sevenury ex cpauneny;_ DEPICTS a0 S
eae CHONTHS YEARS) ABHORHAL DRYNESS. OR VE THES
SuOmEG; CHANGES TELS ern WEEK Yo week;

AND iuad tom ee HOTSTURE RUNOFF, RECHAG
ND DEEP PERCOLATION, AS WELL. AS" EVAPOTRANSPIRAT ON.

ISES.. -APPLI IN MEASURING DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF P
tay CInees Oy wate GesgiT]¥e eCoMaetESvOeg/ ona] ae

fvRESS"OR “WET

ASTER. AREAS” 0 HOR WETNESS: AND_ REFLECTING THE. GENERAL: L ine ATREME

gms sTarts OF WATER SuPPLIGS IN AGUIFERS, RESEAVOURS AND STRERRS i)

mt rartons, 15 NOT GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF syoRt- TERM (FEW

SIRTUS GF BRIGHT OR WETRESS.SuCn aS. EREGUENTLG AFFECTS CROPS AND Tura

PELE geRRTUG PR RECEP GPP ASTERCae RES NO CRE) NOMAUSOA JOINT AGRICLTURAL VEATIER FACILITY ge uannen ae

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-3 NASS, USDA



APPLES, COMMERCIAL 1/

PRODUCTION
TOTAL 2/
es - IND

1988 1989

MILLION POUNDS
10.0 9.0
630.0 650.0
65.0 75.0
47.0 38.0
19.0 15.0
33.0 30.0
135.0 145.0
85.0 93.0
56.0 67.0
9.5 12.0
12.0 9.0
11.0 17.0
94.0 68.0
54.0 54.0
99.0 88.0
830.0 1,000.0
14.0 22.0
56.0 52.0
57.0 52.0
65.0 40.0
10.0 9.0
910.0 990.0
350.0 220.0
95.0 125.0
165.0 180.0
520.0 340.0
5.5 4.0
38.0 36.0
12.5 11.5
40.0 65.0
45.0 47.0
425.0 360.0
3,900.0 4,500.0
0 140.0
45.0 63.0
9,157.5 9,626.5

1/__IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES. 2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED
PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1987-296.8,
2988-49.6. 3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORE~

FILBERTS (HAZELNUTS)

PRODUCTION

UTILIZED

: TONS(IN-SHELL BASIS)
OREG : 21,500 16,300 13,300
: 200 200

WASH 300
us 21,800 16,500 13,500

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-37 NASS, USDA



Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina) is expected to total 2-92 billion pounds, up 11 percent’ from
1988 but down 3 percent from September 1. Yield for the four-State area is
expected to average 2,807 pounds per acre, 245 pounds greater than last year.
In South Carolina, the effects of Hurricane Hugo interrupted harvesting and
damaged machinery, equipment, and buildings. In other areas of the region,
excessive rainfall and cool temperatures during September lowered expectations
for a larger production. Harvest was halted in many areas and there was
concern of losing the poundage in those fields that were mature but not dug.
As of October 2 in Georgia, 80 percent of the peanuts were dug and 64 percent
were harvested compared to the S-year averages of 68 amd 54 percent
respectively.

The Virginia-North Carolina crop is forecast at 709 million pounds,
from last year but down 1 percent from the September 1 forecast,
Yield per harvested acre, at 2,906 pounds, is 103 pounds above last year.
vield prospects declined @uring ‘the month, in this area, as rainfall created
more disease problems than usual, and delayed harvest.

The Southwest crop production (New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) is expected
to total 713 million pounds, up 6 percent from last year and unchanged from

September 1. Yields are expected to average 1,975 pounds per acre, 107 pounds
above last year's yield. Growing conditions were varied in Texas during the

season. In Texas and Oklahoma, record yields are expected as a result of the
favorable growing conditions.

ALL COTTON: All cotton production is forecast at 12. O million bales, down 22

percent from last year's production. Of the total, Upland is

to account for 11.3 million bales while Pima production will be a

record high 667 thousand bales. Total area for harvest is estimated at 9.55

million acres, down 20 percent from 1988. Yield is expected to average 603

pounds per acre, 16 pounds below last year and down 15 pounds from September
1.

Upland cotton production in Texas and Oklahoma is forecast at 3.18 million
bales, 42 percent below 1988 and 3 percent below September 1. In Texas,
varying weather conditions have reduced yield potential of the crop from last
year's 472 pounds per acre. As of October 1, harvest was active in the
Central and Blacklands areas. Cooler temperatures from two weather fronts
during September in the Plains area slowed maturing of the bolls.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and
Tennessee) expect to produce 3.79 million bales, down 20 percent from last
year and down 3 percent from September 1. Cool temperatures and abundant
rainfall during September slowed development. of the crop. Same producers
applied defoliants in order to begin harvesting those bolls which are mature.
As of October 1, Mississippi was 35 percent behind the average harvesting rate
and Arkansas was 22 percent behind their average.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 3.35 million bales, down 12 percent from 1988. The yields
in this jion are expected to average 1,194 pounds per acre, 156 pounds above
the 1988 yield. The Arizona and California crops remain in good to excellent
condition and boll opening was complete in California and nearly complete in
Arizona, as of October 1. Defoliation contimed in both States with harvest
active in most areas of Arizona and southern California.

The forecast in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina,
and South Carolina) puts production at 980 thousand bales, 4 percent below the
1988 production. Crop development was hindered during September by excessive
rainfall and cooler temperatures in this region, which stopped harvest in some
areas and caused concern about boll rot. South Carolina's prospects have
declined as a result of Hurricane Hugo's wind and rain.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-8 NASS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT: ACREAGE

AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED

STATE: ---- 2-2-2222 22 nen nee ee ne ee eee eee
1987 1988 2/ 1989 1987 1988 2/ : 1989
1,000 ACRES
ALA : 250 270 300 170 200 220
ARIZ: 45 36 35 44 35 34
ARK : 930 1,120 1,200 840 1,070 1,130
CALIF: 560 500 625 510 460 570
COLO =: 3,100 2,500 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,200
DEL : 50 65 80 48 63 74
FLA : 80 75 80 60 55 65
GA : 550 575 800 460 500 700
IDAHO: 860 820 880 800 770 810
ILL : 1,100 1,300 1,850 950 1,250 1,780
IND : 750 840 940 600 700 880
IOWA: 90 60 80 30 35 70
KANS : 10,700 10,200 12,400 9,900 9,500 8,900
KY : 500 550 630 330 380 450
LA : 240 300 390 170 270 350
MD : 175 180 230 165 170 215
MICH: 450 650 660 400 620 640
MINN: 100 75 135 90 60 120
MISS: 400 500 525 350 450 450
MO : 900 1,650 1,970 770 1,550 1,850
MONT : 2,300 2,450 2,500 2,200 2,100 1,500
NEBR: 2,200 2,300 2,550 1,950 2,000 2,050
NEV : 8 8 7 7 7 6
Nd : 30 35 43 27 31 35
N MEX: 660 520 550 340 290 160
NY : 90 95 135, 80 90 130
NC : 490 510 680 440 480 630
N DAK: 200 250 100 185 130 80
OHIO: 850 1,000 1,260 800 920 1,230
OKLA =: 7,200 7,000 7,300 4,800 4,800 5,700
OREG so: 780 700 840 750 660 800
PA : 190 175 220 185 170 215
sc : 290 320 460 275 305 435
S DAK : 1,700 1,700 1,600 1,620 1,270 1,350
TENN: 440 530 540 350 430 450
TEX : 6,800 6,300 6,700 3,600 3,200 3,000
UTAH: 180 160 165 170 155 155
VA : 275 230 300 215 200 275
WASH =: 1,900 1,850 2,100 1,825 1,750 1,300
WVA: 13 11 16 11 9 12
WIS : 85 140 200 60 125 170
WYO : 300 250 250 270 225 210
US : 48,811 48,800 55,026 39,347 39,785 41,401

1/ AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL. 2/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-14 NASS, USDA


INDEX

PAGE

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-18 NASS, USDA


The Georgia forecast is 95.0 million pounds, unchanged from last month
but 14 percent below last year. Disease continues to plague this year's pecan
crop. Harvest of the earliest maturing orchards should begin during early
October. Alabama's forecast of 20.0 million pounds is the same as last month
but double the 1988 production. Little to no rain during early September hurt
the crop as many nuts did not fill properly. Insects and disease have also
caused quality problems. California's estimate is 1.70 million pounds,
unchanged from last month but down 15 percent from last year. Young bearing
acreage will help offset the expected decrease in production from older
orchards. Quality is good and harvest is expected to begin in late October.
Florida's forecast is 5.00 million pounds, 17 percent below last month and
last season, Heavy rains early in the season combined with dry weather later
in the season have had a detrimental effect on crop size. Louisiana's
estimate is 13.0 million pounds, 13 percent below last month and 41 percent
under the previous year. Produc-tion expectations are down due to a
combination of reasons, including drought, late spring frost, flooding,
insects, and disease. New Mexico pecans are forecast at 29.0 million pounds,
unchanged from last month but 12 percent above the 1988 production. The crop
is in very good condition. Growers are continuing to apply irrigation water
to ensure good nut fill. Oklahoma's crop is forecast at 12.0 million pounds,
the same as last month but 74 percent below last year's large crop. The
alternate bearing characteristic of pecan trees contributes mostly to this
large swing in production. South Carolina's forecast is 1.20 million pounds,
down 67 percent from last month and 82 percent below last season. Hurricane
Hugo was the main reason for this decline as some trees were blown to the
ground and most nuts were blown off the trees. Texas is forecasting 50.0
million pounds, the same as last month but 17 percent below last season.
Harvest is beginning in south Texas. The crop is varied across the State.
Additional nut drop has occurred due to dry conditions in some areas.

PAPAYA: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is forecast at 5.20 million

pounds for October, 11 percent lower than October 1988. Output is
expected to decline to 4.60 million pounds in November, followed by a further
decrease to 2.50 million pounds in December. Production is forecast to
increase to 3.20 million pounds for January 1990.

Fresh utilization is estimated at 4.82 million pounds for September, 11
percent lower than August and 17 percent lower than last September. Year-to-
date fresh sales were 19 percent higher than the same January-September period
of 1988.

Crop area, totaling 4000 acres, was virtually unchanged from August but
12 percent lower than last September. Area harvested totaled 2565 acres, 1
percent more than the previous month and 6 percent higher than a year ago.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-16 NASS, USDA


GRAPES: The U.S. grape crop is forecast at 5.88 million tons, virtually
unchanged from the September 1 forecast but 2 percent below last
year's production.

Only California, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington had the
opportunity to change their September 1 forecast. The August 1 forecast was
carried forward for the remaining States.

California's production, at 5,35 million tons, is 2 percent below last
year. The California raisin variety grape forecast is 2.60 million tons,
unchanged from the September 1 forecast and 2 percent above 1988 production.
Rain in September damaged the raisin type grapes. The amount lost is
uncertain at this time as many raisins are being reconditioned. Over 300
thousand tons of raisin type grapes had been crushed for wine by late
September.

The California wine variety forecast of 2.05 million tons is unchanged
from September 1 but 6 percent below 1988 output. Harvest of wine grapes was
slowed due to mid-September rains. Some mold and bunch rot have developed.
Approximately 80 percent of the wine grape crop statewide has been picked.

The California table variety grape forecast is 700 thousand tons,
unchanged from September 1 but 7 percent below the 1988 crop. Harvest of
table grapes continued during September. Damage from September rains was

The Washington all grape forecast, at 220 thousand tons, is down 4 percent
from September 1 but 21 percent above the 1988 production. Concord harvest
is active and is expected to be finished by late October. Quality is good but
the crop is picking out lighter than expected. Wine grape harvest is also
active and current prospects are for a "vintage" year.

The New York grape forecast is 155 thousand tons, the same as September
1 but 1 percent below last year. Concords started coloring very early in
September, yet many vines still have green and maroon colored fruit. Yields
are sporadic varying from heavy to absolutely nothing. Last year's drought
conditions and poor berry set at bloom have hurt certain varieties. Disease
problems are prevalent, especially in Catawbas and Niagaras.

Pennsylvania's forecast of 60.0 thousand tons is 2 percent above last
month and 3 percent above the 1988 production. Most growers reported their
grape crop is looking good. Harvest is expected to be 7 to 10 days behind
normal, due to cool weather.

The Michigan forecast is 45.0 thousand tons, unchanged from September 1
and 15 percent below the 1988 season. The State's grape crop was hurt by
several frosts in late September. Harvest of Niagara grapes is over and
Concord harvest, which began September 25, is expected to continue through
mid-October.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon,
and Washington is forecast at 50.5 thousand tons, up 4
percent from the September 1 forecast but 3 percent less than last year.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-14 NASS, USDA


SUNFLOWER

AREA HARVESTED

1,000 ACRES

OIL
KANS 167
MINN 35
N DAK 1,170
S_DAK 246
TEX 12
US 1,630

NON-OIL
KANS 28
MINN 12
N DAK 240
S_DAK 4
TEX 7
URS 291

ALL
KANS 195
MINN 47
N DAK 1,410
S_DAK 250
TEX 19

1,000 ACRES
ALA 236.0 244
FLA 90.0 92
GA 685.0 690
N MEX 2/ 13.4 15
NC 153.0 153
OKLA 97.0 93
sc 13.0 14
TEX 250.0 253
VA 91.0 91
us 1,628.4 1,645

PRODUCTION

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
1,240 2/ 207,000
1,350 114,550 47,250
880 1,793,600 1,029,600
820 380,900 201,720
1,300 13,200 15,600
921 2,302,250 1,501,170
1,180 ey 33,000
1,400 13,500 16,800
950 282,750 228,000
800 6,050 200
1,400 3,600 9,800
999 305,900 290,800
1,230 1,170 2/ 240,000 = 169,650
1,363 1,150 128,050 64,050 79,350
892 900 2,076,350 1,257,600 1,116,000
820 1,000 386,950 204,920 293,000
1,337 1,400 16,800 25,400 25,200

954 2,608,150 1,791,970 1,683,200

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
2,380 2,500 465,300 561,680 610,000
2,540 2,600 215,800 228,600 239,200
2,630 2,950 1,575,000 1,801,550 2,035,500
2,280 2,300 33,480 30,552 34,500
2,745 2,850 392,200 419,985 436,050
2,320 2,400 222,750 225,040 223,200
2,470 2,500 31,200 32,110 35,000
1,670 1,800 441,000 417,500 455,400
2,900 3,000 243,000 263,900 273,000
2,445 2,639 3,619,730 3,980,917 4,341,850

1/_ ESTIMATES COMPRISED OF QUOTA AND NON-QUOTA PEANUTS.

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION
OCTOBER 1989

A-24

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

NASS, USDA


SEPTEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

Hurricane Hugo raged across South Carolina at midmonth, with heavy rain
and high wind causing widespread damage. Hugo had previously devastated
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Rains from Hugo and showers and
thunderstorms throughout the month kept the Southeast and Atlantic Coast
States wet. Flooding resulted from torrential rain in the middle and lower
Missouri Valley at the first of the month. Heavy rain fell over much of the
Corn Belt and central and southern Plains during the first half of month,
while dry conditions pre-vailed during the latter half. Early season rain,
largely moisture from the remains of Pacific Hurricane Octave, brought
unseasonably wet weather to California. A number of frontal systems
across the eastern two-thirds of the Nation. Cold air spilled in behind the
systems, keeping the Central States abnormally cool with freezing temperatures
dipping into the northern Corn Belt.

WINTER WHEAT PLANTING

Winter wheat planting was delayed by rain in the central and southern
Great Plains early in September. By midmonth, planting progress was behind
normal in most of the major producing States. During the last half of

Planting progressed rapidly, and by October 1, planting was 55%
complete, '5 points shead of normal. Twenty percent of the crop was emerged,
6 points behind normal.

Nebraska's winter wheat was 90% planted, 2 points ahead of normal. Forty-
five percent was emerged, 20 points behind normal. Heavy rains early in the
month forced some replanting in the Panhandle area. In Kansas, winter wheat
planting was 65% complete, 10 points ahead of normal. Producers planted 45%
of their crop during the last week of September. Crop emergence lagged 5
points behind the 25% average. In Oklahoma, planting was 55% complete, 10
points ahead of normal. Colorado's winter wheat planting advanced rapidly in
late September but still lagged 11 points behind the 92% average on October

1. Emergence lagged 31 points behind normal
SEPTEMBER CROP PROGRESS

Rain and cool weather slowed crop development and harvest in the central
and southern Great Plains early in September. Late in the month, frost
damaged late planted crops in the central and northern Great Plains and
portions of the Corn Belt. In the Delta and Southeast, early Si
ary but late in the month, rain and cool weather slowed crop development ara
hampered crop harvests. "Hurricane Hugo damaged crops in North and South
Carolina the third week of September. In california, heavy rains late in
September slowed harvest activity and damaged some fruit and nut crops.

Corn was 84% mature, 6 points behind normal on October 1. Harvest was 16%
complete, also 6 points behind normal. Cool, wet weather slowed crop
development in the central and southern Great Plains in early September.
Frost damaged some corn in the central and narthem Great Plains and portions
of the Corn Belt during the last half of the month. Hurricane Hugo caused
lodging problems in the Carolinas. Crop maturity continued to lag behind
normal in the Corn Belt. On October 1, corn maturity lagged 62 points behind
normal in Ohio. Harvest was behind normal in all the major producing States
except South Dakota.

On October 1, 69% of the soybean acres were dropping leaves, 6 points
behind normal. Harvest was 18% complete, 2 points behind normal. Crop
development lagged behind normal in the Corn Belt during September. The third
week of Septenber, Hurricane Hugo damaged soybeans in the Carolinas. Late in

frost may have damaged late planted fields in the central and
northern Great Plains and portions of the Corn Belt.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-4 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE PRODUCTION

CROP INDICATED
AND. INDICATED:
UNIT : 1989):

CORN FOR GRAIN BU: 84 114.4 4,921,191 7,321,005 7,448,875

6
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN " 63.8 62.4 57 7)551 658,858 656,718
RICE CWT

Cc V/: 5,511 5,649 159,547 152,343 155,118

SOYBEANS FOR :
a BU: 26.9 32.6 1,547,541 1,889,265 1,926,385

PEANUTS FOR NUTS ‘8 : 2,445 2,639 3,980,917 z 435,400 4,341,850
SUNFLOWER 2/ 2 933 954 1,791,970 1,683,200
ALL ed BALE 1/: 619 603 15,411.5 12,279.4 11,991.4

UPLAND "V/s: 616 592 15,077.3 11,647.4 11,324.4

AMER-PIMA y 848 876 334.2 632.0 667.0
COTTONSEED TON : , 9677
ALL HAY . : 1.93 2.40 126,817 3/145,172 150,497

ALAA . : 2.60 3.13 19, 282 3/77, 633 79,883

THER " A 1.48 1.90 57,535 3/67, 539 70,614

ort totale BEANS CWT 1/: 1,408 1,428 19,230 , 24,719
QRY EQIBLE PEAS = "1/2. 2,161 2,239 3,868 9895
AUSTRIAN WINTER 3

PEAS "1/2/: 1,330 1,627 133 166
LENTILS "1/2/: 1,259 1,239 894 1,041
TOBACCO LB: 2,160 2,122 1,369,662 1,494,194 1,478,122
SUGARBEETS TON: 19.1 20.1 24,810 26,495 26,596
SUGARCANE FOR :
5 SUGAR AND AND SEED " 2 35.4 35.2 29,904 30,816 30,521
"AS 2

RANGE Fee 4/ PCT: 60 74
penbeS? COMM’L =«LB : 9,157,500 3/9731 308 9,626, 50
GRAPE! TON: 5,986.0 5,888. 5,879
PRUNES AND PLUMS 3

AFiCL C ALIF) " H 52.0 48.5 50.5
PECANS LB H 308,000 245,800 240,400
FILBERTS TON 16.5 $/13.5 .
CITRUS FRUITS 6/ 1988-89 1989-90 1989-90

ORANGES BOX 207,150 194,350

LEMONS . 20,000 19,700
1/__ YIELD IN POUNDS. of 1388 REVISED. 3/ AUG 1, 1989. 4/ PASTURE AND RANGE
FEED CONDITION AS FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1978-87 AVERAGE IS 75 PERCENT.
Shag MID-AUGUST FORECAST PUBLISHED IN "FILBERT PRODUCTION" RELEASED AUGUST 25,

SON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH

6/_ SEA!
THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.
UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION

(DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE PRODUCTION

CROP
AND INDICATED INDICATED
UNIT 1989 1/ 1989 1/
POTATOES
WINTER 2/ CWT
SPRING "
SUMMER .
FALL "
TOTAL "
HOPS LB
PEACHES "
SWEET CHERRIES Tot
TART CHERRIES LB
PEARS TON 42.
APRICOTS. . .
NECTARINES cath " .
ORIED PRUNE (CALIF) " 205.0
PLUMS (CAI " 200.0
OLIVES caLit) " 100.0
PISTACHIO ACA IF) LB 28,000
ALMONDS (CALIF) ‘ 425,000
WALNUTS Tor 21

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1989 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-5 NASS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT 1/

PRODUCTION
TON EQUIVALENT

: INDICATED

1989-90
1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES, EARLY MID.
& NAVEL 3/
ARIZ : 610 550 500 23 21 19
CALIF : 31,500 34,000 35,000 1,182 1,275 1,313
FLA : 78,500 85,300 72,000 3,532 3,839 3,240
TEX : 940 1,200 1,300 40 51 55
US : 111,550 121,050 108,800 4,777 5,186 4,627
ORANGES, VALENCIA
ARIZ : 1,210 1,150 900 45 43 34
CALIF : 27,500 23,000 26,000 1,031 862 975
FLA : 59,500 61, 300 58,000 2,677 2,759 2,610
TEX : 490 650 21 28 28
nS 88,700 86, $80 85,550 3,774 3,692 3,647
ALL ORANGES
ARIZ : 1,820 1,700 1,400 68 64 53
CALIF : 59,000 57,000 61,000 2,213 2,137 2,288
FLA : 138,000 146,600 130,000 6,209 6,598 5,850
TEX : 1,430 1,850 1,950 61 79 83
US : 200,250 207,150 194,350 8,551 8,878 8,274
TEMPLES :
FLA 3,550 3,750 3,000 160 169 135
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE
SEEDLESS :
FLA : 29,200 27,700 22,500 1,241 1,177 956
S*RFEpLesS COLORED:
21,900 23,700 + ~—-:18, 500 930 1,007 786
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
FLA 2,750 3,350 3,000 117 142 128
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
ARIZ > 1,950 1,950 2,100 63 63 67
CALIF yy:
DESERT : 4,200 3,500 3,700 134 112 118
OTHER AREAS : 4,900 5,000 164 168
TOTAL > 9,100 8,500 298 280
FLA : 53,850 54,750 44,000 2,288 2,326 =—-:1, 870
TEX : 3,800 4,800 4,400 152 192 176
US : 68,700 70,000 2,801 2,861
TANGERINES
ARIZ : 600 650 700 23 25 26
CALIF : 2,090 2,040 1,750 78 76 66
FLA 5/: 2,450 2,900 2,200 1]7 138 105
US : 5,140 5,590 4,650 218 239 197
LEMONS
ARIZ : 3,650 3,800 3,200 139 144 122
CALIF : 17,000 16,200 16,500 646 615 627
US 20,650 20,000 19,700 785 759 749
TANGELOS
FLA 4,200 3,800 3,500 189 171 158

/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH
YEAR HARVEST IS COMPLETED, 2/ NET LBS. PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ-75,
FLA-90, TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF OTHER-67, FLA-85,
TEX-80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS & TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95.
3/__ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. EARLY AND
MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF
TANGERINES IN TEXAS. 4/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT "OTHER AREAS"
WILL BE AS OF APRIL 1, 1990. 5/ FLORIDA "ALL TANGERINES” INCLUDE SUNBURST
TANGERINES BEGINNING WITH THE 1989-90 CROP YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-35 NASS, USDA



CORN FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

STATE : IND : IND:
1988 =: 1989 : 1988 1989 : 1987
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 170 190 44.0 80.0 18,000 7,480 15,200
ARIZ 1/ : 17 13 130.0 150.0 2,000 2,210 1,950
ARK If: 60 55 =100.0 120.0 7,475 6,000 6,600
CALIF : 187 200 145.0 150.0 35,360 27,115 30,000
rat 2/ : 800 950 160.0 155.0 106,950 128,000 147,250
DEL H 140 130 70.0 105.0 10,804 9,800 13,650
FLA l/s: 65 80 58.0 77.0 7,560 3,770 6,160
GA : 500 550 62.0 100.0 51,240 31,000 §5,000
IDAHO 1/ 50 60 130.4 125.0 6,560 6,500 7,500
ILL 9,600 10,700 73,0 122.0 1,201,200 700,800 1,305,400
IND 5,000 5,150 83.0 130.0 631,800 415,000 669,500
IOWA 10,700 12,400 84,0 114.0 1,306,500 898,800 1,413,600
KANS 1,150 1,220 125.0 130.0 141,600 143,750 158,600
KY > 1,100 1,190 73.0 112.0 118,560 80,300 133,280
LA Ye: 125 135 95.0 110.0 22,365 11,875 14,850
MAINE 2/:

Os 2/ 420 400 65.0 103.0 35,880 27,300 41,200
MICH 1,600 1,950 70.0 105.0 185,250 112,000 204,750
MINN 4,700 5,600 74.0 120.0 635,000 347,800 672,000
MISS) 1/ 150 150 60.0 80.0 14,800 9,000 12,000
MO 2,020 2,250 76.0 99.0 242,950 153,520 222,750
MONT 1/ 20 15 110.0 110.0 1,575 2,200 1,650
NEBR a/ 6,600 7,200 124.0 118.0 812,200 818,400 849,600
Ng 1/ 84 78 70.0 95.0 10,450 5,880 7,410
N MEX 1/ 55 65 155.0 155.0 7,595 8,525 10,075
NY 485 590 85.0 90.0 55,590 41,225 $3,100
NC 930 980 84.0 93.0 69,000 78,120 91,140
N DAK 380 500 58.0 75.0 46,500 22,040 37,500
OHIO 3,000 2,900 85.0 115.0 362,400 255,000 333,500
OKLA 1/ 72 7 95.0 110.0 7,062 6,840 8,580
OREG 1/ 19 22 «158.0 160.0 3,960 3,002 3,520
pa 910 860 65.0 112.0 95,400 59,150 96,320
$c 335 300 58.0 85.0 29,250 19,430 25,500
S DAK 2,400 2,900 55.0 75.0 228,250 132,000 217,500
TENN 530 530 73.0 108.0 52,780 38,690 57,240
TEX 1,350 1,400 96.0 109.0 133,750 129,600 152,600
UTAH y 22 124.0 134.0 2,800 2,728 2,680
VA : 295 310 79.0 106.0 18,900 23,305 32,860
WASH 1/ : 80 90 §6170.0 175.0 13,600 13,600 15,750
WVA 1/ 3 40 48 58.0 95.0 3,600 2,320 4,560
WIS : 1,950 2,800 67.0 111.0 330,400 130,650 310,800
WYO lf: 53 50 9122.0 115.0 5,217 6,466 5,750

US : 58,164 65,109 84.6 114.4 7,072,073 4,921,191 7,448,875

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ NOT ESTIMATED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-21 NASS, USDA



ALL OTHER HAY

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

: IND
1988 1/ : 1989

1,000 ACRES

1,000 TONS
ALA : 750 700

2.00 2.40 1,470 1,500 1,680
ARIZ 2/ : 25 40 4.00 4.00 135 100 160
ARK : 935 965 1.70 2.50 1,615 1,590 2,412
CALIF : 580 730 2.40 2.40 1,300 1,392 1,752
COLO 3 870 790 1.50 1.40 1,139 1,305 1,106
CONN 2/ 60 63 2.25 2.30 144 135 145
OEL = 2/ 17 16 2.00 2.25 27 34 36
FLA 2/ 270 260 2.70 3.00 798 729 780
GA 570 600 2.20 2.90 1,320 1,254 1,740
IDAHO 220 190 1.75 2.00 525 385 380
TLL 550 350 1.70 1.80 946 935 630
IND $ 480 390 1.40 2.60 805 672 1,014
IOWA H 800 650 1.40 1.80 1,265 1,120 1,170
KANS : 1,800 1,600 1.50 1.80 2,790 2,700 2,880
ky : 1,950 1,950 1.50 2.30 3,420 2,925 4,485
LA : 345 295 2.50 2,60 940 863 767
MAINE 2/—: 195 198 1.85 2.00 374 361 396
MD : 145 155 2.20 2.80 323 319 434
MASS 2/ : 95 93 2.25 2.25 213 214 209
MICH H 600 300 1.40 2.30 608 840 690
MINN 1,600 800 1.50 2.20 1,850 2,400 1,760
MISS 650 600 2.00 2.60 1,425 1,300 1,560
Mo 3,600 3,300 1.20 1.70 4,960 4,320 5,610
MONT 700 1,000 1.00 1.40 1,350 700 1,400
NEBR 2,050 2,100 1.20 1.00 2,250 2,460 2,100
NEV 260 275 1.10 1.30 351 286 357
NH 2/ 65 63 2.10 2.20 126 137 139
NJ 2/ 71 77 1.90 1.90 181 135 146
N MEX 2/ $5 60 1.80 1.80 17 99 108
NY 1,190 1,220 1.95 2.10 2,665 2,321 2,562
NC : 420 480 1.70 2.00 656 714 960
N DAK : 1,800 1,350 0.70 1.00 1,755 1,260 1,350
OHIO : 900 725 1.60 2.80 1,740 1,440 2,030
OKLA : 1,900 1,750 1.40 2.20 3,060 2,660 3,850
OREG 3 650 675 1.65 1.70 1,208 1,073 1,148
PA : 1,200 1,180 1.90 2.30 2,478 2,280 2,714
RI @ : 6 6 2.30 2.30 1 14 14
sc 240 235 2.10 2.60 450 504 611
S DAK 2,000 2,100 0.80 0.80 1,920 1,600 1,680
TENN 1,500 1,650 1.40 2.00 2,320 2,100 3,300
TEX 3,100 3,590 1.60 2.10 7,440 4,960 7,539
UTAH 2/  : 140 130 1.90 1.70 336 266 221
VT ay: 300 295 1.80 1.90 551 540 561
VA 3 1,080 1,020 1.70 2.00 1,800 1,836 2,040
WASH 310 310 2.50 2.50 720 775 775
W VA 550 535 1.30 1.80 770 715 963
WIS 650 700 0.90 2.30 1,040 585 1,610
Wyo 620 640 1.10 1,00 85) 682 640
US 38,864 37,201 1.48 1.90 64,508 $7,535 70,614

1/__ INCLUDES SUBSTANTIAL ACREAGE OF SET ASIDE AND CONSERVATION RESERVE ACRES
THAT WERE RELEASED FOR HAYING AND HARVESTED FOR HAY DUE TO DROUGHT. 2/ ESTI-
MATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-27 NASS, USDA



SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

STAT! : od 2 : IND : IND
1988 1/ : 1989 :1988 I1/: 1989 1987 1988 1/ : 1989
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA 3 570 520 25.0 23.0 7,920 14,250 11,960
ARK : 3,200 3,200 26.0 24.0 71,500 83,200 76,800
OEL : 225 250 27.0 31.0 4,230 6,075 7,750
FLA 2/ : 115 150 29.0 27.0 2,325 3,335 4,050
GA 3 900 1,150 25.0 27.0 15,600 22,500 31,050
ILL : 8,700 8,750 27.0 39.0 330,600 234,900 341,250
IND : 4,200 4,550 27.5 39.0 174,000 115,500 =177,450
IOWA : 8,000 8,250 31.0 38.0 343,650 248,000 313,500
KANS : 2,000 1,750 23.0 28.0 67,520 46,000 49,000
KY : 910 1,170 26.5 32.0 24,000 24,115 37,440
LA > 1,950 1,550 29.0 21.0 38,775 56,550 32,550
MD 455 560 31.0 31.0 9,225 14,105 17,360
MICH 1,210 1,090 28.0 36.0 38,150 33,880 39,240
MINN 4,800 5,000 26.0 37.0 181,350 124,800 185,000
MISS 2,250 2,000 22.0 20.0 47,775 49,500 40,000
4,230 4,300 26.0 31.0 154,560 109,980 133,300
NEBR 2,360 2,550 30.0 28.0 83,425 70,800 71,400
NJ 2/ 103 128 27.0 30.0 3,069 2,781 3,840
NC 1,410 1,480 27.0 27.0 32,830 38,070 39,960
N DAK 2/ 690 80 18.0 23.0 16,738 12,420 13,340
3,700 3,950 27.0 33.0 147,260 99,900 130,350

OKLA 2/ 270 18.0 26.0 ’ 4,860 ,
PA 2/ 225 255 32.0 37.0 5,610 7,200 9,435
sc 790 960 23.0 22.0 15,695 18,170 21,120
S_DAK 1,730 1,870 24.0 28.0 45,175 41,520 52,360
TENN 1,320 1,430 26.0 25.0 28,750 34,320 35,750
TEX 225 450 28.0 30.0 4,200 6,300 13,500
VA 555 525 28.0 32.0 10,920 15,540 16,800
WIS 2/ 390 380 23.0 36.0 12,160 8,970 13,680
US : 57,483 59,073 26.9 32.6 1,922,762 1,547,541 1,926,385

1/_ REVISED. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER
FORECAST.

AREA PLANTED, SOYBEANS, 1/

1,000 ACRES
ALA : 590

1,000 ACRES

4,300

ARK : 3,250 2,400
DEL 3 230 105
FLA : 120 1,470
GA 3 930 750
TLL : 8,800 3,900
IND 3 4,300 290
TOWA : 8,050 230
KANS 3 2,050 800
ky : 980 1,760
LA : 2,000 1,400
MO : 465 240
MICH : 1,250 $70
MINN : 4,900 430
MISS : 2,400

: 58,960
1/ REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

OCTOBER 1989 A-23 NASS, USDA



PRODUCTION
CROP AND STATE : TOTAL 1/ ND
1987 1988 1989
TONS
GRAPES TABLE TYPE
CALIF 540,000 755,000 700,000
GRAPES WINE TYPE
CALIF 1,950,000 2,180,000 2,050,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE 2/ 3/
CALIF 2,170,000 2,550,000 2,600,000
ALL GRAPES
ARIZ 4/ 31,000 25,500 26,000
ARK 4 55000 7,000 5,000
CALIF : 4,660,000 5,485,000 5,350,000
GA af: 23700 2,500
MICH : 60,000 53,000 45,000
MO 4/: 23750 33250 33100
NY : 178,000 157,000 155,000
NC a/: 1,800 33300 23300
OHIO 4/: 10,000 8,900 9/800
PA : 62,500 58,000 60,000
SC af: 700 500 300
WASH > 249,500 182,000 220,000
US : 5,263,950 5,985,950 5,879,300

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS): US - 1987-
13,500; 1988-1,600. 2/ FRESH BASIS. 3/ EXCLUDES PRODUCTION FROM APPROXI-
MATELY 15,000 ACRES OF THOMPSON SEEOLESS VINEYAROS IN THE VOLUNTARY RAISIN IN-
DUSTRY DIVERSION (RID) PROGRAM FOR 1987 AND 25,000 ACRES IN 1988. THERE IS NO
RID PROGRAM FOR THE 1989 SEASON. 4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FOR-
WARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PRUNES AND PLUMS

PRUNES AND PLUMS
IDAHO

MICH
OREG
WASH

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD(TONS): TOTAL 4
STATES, 1987-4,300; 1988-3,900.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-36 NASS, USDA


RYE

AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED
STATE
1989
1,000 ACRES

coLo 18 18 28 6 4
DEL 20 1 17 3 4 2
GA 380 350 320 70 70 70
TLL 65 60 50 6 5 8
IND 40 50 45 il 11 6
IOWA 25 30 25 4 5 5
KANS 35 40 45 10 5 5
KY 50 45 50 2 4 2
MD 55 58 40 8 10 8
MICH 115 135 120 20 25 20
MINN 75 75 60 40 40 32

15 25 25 2 3
NEBR 200 250 160 50 55 30
NJ 55 60 47 8 10
NY 90 100 80 10 12 15
NC 150 160 150 30 35 25
N DAK 75 130 45 165 90 38
OHIO 50 40 40 5 5
OKLA 175 130 100 20 30 28
OREG 20 15 20 4 3 3
PA 85 100 100 18 22 22
sc 90 75 80 24 30 28
S DAK 150 120 100 140 90 90
TEX 140 150 90 10 10 7
VA 200 150 140 1S 16 8
WIS 25 40 70 5 6 12
us
cOLo 24.0 25.0 20.0
DEL 33.0 31.0 35.0
GA 22.0 27.0 23.0
TLL 24.0 28.0 39.0
IND 27.0 30.0 34.0
IOWA 35.0 30.0 37.0
KANS 27.0 26.0 16.0
KY 36.0 26.0 32.0
MD 31.0 29.0 27.0
MICH 32.0 26.0 33.0
MINN 30.0 23.0 34.0
MO 18.0 32.0 30.0
NEBR 23.0 25.0 20.0
NJ 29.0 31.0 26.0
NY 30.0 33.0 32.0
NC 24.0 26.0 21.0
N OAK 31.0 15.0 28.0
OHIO 36.0 37.0 31.0
OKLA 18.0 24.0 19.0
OREG 30.0 25.0 25.0
PA 35.0 36.0 32.0
sc 22.0 24.0 23.0
S_DAK 36.0 25.0 36.0
TEX 15.0 15.0 18.0
VA 29.0 35.0 33.0
WIS 20.0 20.0 30.0
us 29.0 24.8 28.2

1/_ AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL. 2/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-18 NASS, USDA


BARLEY: ACREAGE

AREA PLANTED 1/

STATE tonne ne nnn nnn nner errr nnn nn nnn nn ncn nner re rn rene n cence rreseee
1987 1988 1/ : 1989 1987 1989
1,000 ACRES
ARIZ : 25 15 15 22 13 12
CALIF: 400 360 320 330 280 240
COLO : 230 185 190 220 175 160
DEL : 55 35 50 52 30 40
IDAHO: 840 880 870 820 850 850
KANS : 140 100 60 120 85 18
KY : 15 16 20 11 14 17
MD : 100 80 90 89 69 80
MICH : 55 50 45 50 38 40
MINN : 1,200 1,250 925 870 850 800
MONT : 2,300 1,806 1,700 2,100 1,250 1,600
NEBR : 90 70 35 75 60 25
NEV : 36 34 30 33 31 27
Nd : 20 16 12 15 9 8
N MEX : 15 11 10 11 6 5
NC : 46 48 50 40 42 43
N DAK 3,000 2,800 2,800 2,900 2,150 2,650
OKLA 35 2 25 25 16 20
OREG 250 225 210 220 200 180
PA 65 60 90 60 55 85
SC 15 17 12 13 14 10
S DAK 870 700 700 850 450 550
TEX : 65 35 25 30 18 15
UTAH : 152 139 134 142 125 V7
VA : 100 95 95 78 75 75
WASH : 660 580 500 645 560 490
WIS : 110 100 80 88 75 65
WYO : 157 150 110 148 140 100
US : 11,046 9,871 9,203 10,057 7,680 8,322
1/_ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL. 2/ REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

OCTOBER 1989 A-10 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO BY CLASS AND

CLASS AND TYPE

AREA HARVESTED :

TYPE - CONTINUED

1,000 POUNDS

CLASS 3B, DARK
AIR-CURED
TYPE 35, ONE SUCKER
BELT :
KY :
TENN
US
TYPE 36, GREEN RIVER
BELT
KY :
TYPE 37, VA SUN-CURED :
BELT :
VA
TOTAL 35-37
CLASS 4, CIGAR FILLER
TYPE 41, PA SEEDLEAF
PA :
TYPE 42-44 OHIO-MIAMI :
VALLEY TYPES
OHIO 2/
TOTAL 41-44 2/
CLASS 5, CIGAR BINDER :
CLASS 5A, CONN VALLEY :
BINDER :
TYPE 51, CONN VALLEY
BROADLEAF
CONN
MASS
TOTAL 51-52
CLASS 5B, WIS BINDER :
TYPE 54, SOUTHERN WIS :
WIS :
TYPE 55, NORTHERN WIS :
WIS :
TOTAL 54-55 :
TOTAL 51-55
CLASS 6, CIGAR WRAPPER :
TYPE 61, CONN VALLEY :
SHADE-GROWN
CONN
MASS
us
ALL CIGAR TYPES
TOTAL 41-61
ALL TOBACCO

IND
1988 : 1989
ACRES

1,850 2,300
480 550
2,330 2,850
950 1,300
110 90
3,390 4,240
6,000 5,500
20 3/
6,020 5,500
850 730
100 100
950 830
2,500 3,000
1,100 1,700
3,600 4,700
4,550 5,530
960 1,100
420 380
1,380 1,480
: 11,950 12,510
: 634,080 696,580

YIELD
: : IND
: 1988: 1989
POUNDS
2,280 2,000
2,100 2,100
2,243 2,019
2,280 2,100
1,155 1,255
2,218 2,028
1,950 1,950
1,400 3/
1,948 1,950
1,700 1,700
1,850 1,750
1,716 1,706
2,040 2,100
1,800 1,800
1,967. 1,991
1,914 1,949
1,590 1,400
1,385 1,300
1,528 1,374
1,887 1,881
2,160 2,122

4,218
1,008
5,226

2,166

127
7,519

11,700

28
11,728

1,445
185
1,630

5,100

1,980
7,080
8,710

1,526
582
2,108

22,546
1,369,662

4,600
1,155
5,755

2,730

113
8,598

10,725

3/
10,725

1,241
175
1,416

6,300

3,060
9,360
10,776

1,540
494
2,034

23,535
1,478,122

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

2/ INCLUDES BINDER TYPES GROWN IN OHIO.
3/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED IN 1989 BECAUSE OF LIMITED ACREAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION
OCTOBER 1989

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
NASS, USDA



1,000 ACRES

IDAHO 64.0 60.0 $3.0 60.0
WASH 117.0 115.0 116.0 114.0
US 181.0 175.0 179.0 174.0
YIELD PRODUCTION
IND IND
1988 2/ 1989 1987 1988 2/ 1989
POUNDS 1,000 CWT
IDAHO 2,200 2,330 1,265 1,386 1,398
WASH 2,140 2,190 2,120 2,482 2,497
US 2,161 2,239 3,385 3,868 3,895

1/ EXCLUDES BOTH WRINKLED SEED PEAS AND AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS.  2/ REVISED.

AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS

STATE IND IND
1988 1/ 1989 1988 1/ 1989
1,000 ACRES
IDAHO 8.0 9.7 7.0 8.7
OREG 5.0 2.5 3:0 1.5
US
POUNDS 1,000 CWT

IDAHO > 1,300 1,700 480 91 148
OREG : 13400 1,200 42 42 18
us : 1,330 1,627 522 133 166
VY oREVISED. TS
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-30 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

PROQUCTION

METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 5.31 7.18 125,004,010 185,962,090 189,210,140
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 4:00 3192 14,670,470 16,735,760 16,681,410
ICE 6:18 6.33 75,236,930 6,910,160 7,036,030
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/1181 2:19 42,117,160 51,417,370 $2,427,610
PEANUTS FOR NUTS :2 2:96 1,805,700 2,011,850 1,969,420
SUNFLOWER 1/ 1 1. 812,820 763, 480
Al coro : 3,355,440 2,673,510 2,610,800
UPLAND 35282,680 2,535,910 2,465,580
AMER- PIMA 760 137,600 145,220
COTTONSEED 5,499,170 4,3435600 4,242,900
ALL HAY 118,046, 440 2/131,697,820 136, 528, 580
ALFALFA 62,851,570 2/70,427,470 72,468,640
ALL OTHER 52,194,870 2/61,270,350 64,059,940
ORY EDIBLE BEANS , 3050 1,121,240
DRY_EDIBLE PEAS 1/ 175,450 176,670
AUSTRIAN WINTER
PEAS 1/ 6,030 7,530
LENTILS 1/ 40,550 47,220
TOBACCO 621,2 677,760 670,460

SUGARBEETS
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED

22,507, 30 24,035,860 24,127,480
27,128,450 27,955,800 27,688,180

APPLES, COMM’L : 4,153,770 2/4,414,130 4,366,510
GRAPES : 5,430,410 5,341,780 5,333,610
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(Gxt CALIF) + 47,170 44,000 45,810
PECANS : 139,710 111,490 109,040
FILBERTS. : 14,970 3/12,250 12,250
CITRUS FRUITS 4/

ORANGES 8,053,990 7,506,050

LEMONS. 688,550 679,480

1988 REVISED. 2/ AUG 1, 1989. 1a MID-AUGUST FORECAST PUBLISHED IN
4/_ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM

Vv
"PILBERT PRODUCTION" RELEASED AUG. 25, 1989.
oF ane FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE

POTATOES :

WINTER 2/ 2 23.83 23.65 118,660 125,370
SPRING : 28.25 27.11 912;170 921,560
SUMMER : 24.61 26.33 914,170 977,080

FALL : 32.68 14,222,750

TOTAL : 31.73 16,167,750
HOPS 1 1.84 1.82 24810 25,430
PEACHES 2 1,188,280 1,031,920
SWEET CHERRIES : 168,920 166,010
TAR CHERRIES : 107,140 119,610
: 781,090 763,940
APRIC ‘OTS : 92,800 106,590
NECTARINES eat) : 181,440 172,370
DRIED PRUNE (CALIF) : 140,610 185,970
Ottis (CAL : 195,950 181,440
S_(GAL int : 79,380 90,720
Pisraen 0 Nur (CALIF) 42,640 70
ALMONDS fet 267,620 192,780

WALNUTS CALLE 186,880

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1989 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-7 NASS, USDA


UNITED

STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED 1/

CROP : : : INDICATED
1988 : 1989 : 1988 : 1989
HECTARES
CORN : 27,364,730 29,267,180 23,538,390 26,348,960
SORGHUM 4,191,780 4,834,020 3,663,250 4,257,340
RICE 1,184,930 1,121,400. 1,171,580 1,111,280
SOYBEANS 2/ : 23,860,520 24,473,630 23,262,800 23,906,250
PEANUTS 670,730 678,670 659,000 665,720
SUNFLOWER 2/ 824,760 736,130 777,410 714,280
ALL COTTON 5,062,590 4,257,540 4,833,300 3,863,000
UPLAND 4,985,860 4,119,540 4,756,770 3,715,090
AMER-PIMA 76,730 138,000 76,530 147,910
ALL HAY 26,531,070 25,391,460
ALFALFA 10,803,200 10,336,590
ALL OTHER 15,727,870 15,054,870
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 606,390 745,760 552,810 700,400
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 2/ 73,250 70,820 72,440 70,420
AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS 2/  : 5,260 4,940 4,050 4,130
LENTILS 2/ : 29,140 34,800 28,730 33,990
TOBACCO 256,610 281,900
SUGARBEETS 537,100 543,940 526,380 535,400
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED 342,080 350,740

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.

2/ 1988 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED

FLAXSEED
POTATOES
WINTER 2/
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
TOTAL 2/
SWEETPOTATOES
HOPS

(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED
: : : INDICATED
1988 :  19891/  : 1988 > 1989 1/

HECTARES

111,290 93,080 91,460 90,250
5,060 5,300 4,980 5,300
32,740 35,530 32,290 33,990
39,010 38,810 37,150 37,110
443,100 439,660 435,200 430,390
519,910 519,300 509,620 506,790
37,840 37,880 36,340 36,660
13,520 13,960

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1989 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION
OCTOBER 1989

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
A-6 NASS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield
surveys taken about October 1. The yield surveys include mailed reports from
farmers for all crops and actual field observations and measurements for corn,
soybeans, cotton, and wheat. Farmers provided appraisals of crop conditions
and probable yield information for crops on their farms and for their Joca)-
ities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot observations, counts and
measurements in a probability sample. These surveys are subject to sampling
and non-sampling type errors that are common to all surveys. More important-
ly, the production forecasts are subject to change due to future weather effects
and other factors that cannot be measured currently but directly affect final
production. .

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by expressing
the deviations between the October 1 production forecasts and the final esti-
mates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared percentage
deviations for the 1969-88 20-year period; the square root of this average
becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecasts relative to
the final end of season estimates, assuming that factors affecting this year’s
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 4.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3
that the current production forecast of 7,449 million bushels will not be above
or below the final estimate by more than 4.1 percent or approximately 305 mil-
lion bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 7.1 percent or approximately 529 million bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 183 million bushels, ranging
from 30 million to 538 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 7 times and above 3 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or over-state final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-19 NASS, USDA



OATS: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE j--- 22-222 nen eee eee eee ne eee ee ee eee
: 1988 1/ : : 1988 1/

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA 50.0 55.0 55.0 1,250 1,100 1,375
ARK 70.0 90.0 73.0 1,260 3,150 3,796
CALIF 70.0 70.0 70.0 2,800 2,450 3,150
COLO 54.0 50.0 55.0 2,700 3,000 3,025
GA 55.0 63.0 59.0 1,650 2,835 4,130
IDAHO 75.0 68.0 70.0 2,700 3,060 4,200
TLL 69.0 51.0 85.0 13,110 9,180 17,000
IND 67.0 40.0 72.0 6,365 3,000 6,840
IOWA 55.0 48.0 72.0 35,750 26,400 50,400
KANS 42.0 39.0 45.0 6,510 5,850 9,000
KY 52.0 50.0 60.0 364 400 480
MAINE 75.0 75.0 70.0 2,850 2,925 2,730
MD 52.0 52.0 55.0 988 884 1,320
MICH 57.0 30.0 67.0 17,100 6,000 20,100
MINN 57.0 33.0 55.0 45,600 24,750 46,750
MO 38.0 36.0 60.0 3,420 1,440 3,600
MONT 55.0 31.0 47.0 6,050 2,790 6,815
NEBR 49.0 38.0 36.0 17,640 12,160 8,640
Nd 52.0 50.0 44.0 260 200 264
NY 60.0 52.0 59.0 12,000 7,540 9,145
NC 59.0 70.0 57.0 3,540 3,850 3,135
N DAK 52.0 18.0 31.0 36,400 7,200 20,150
OHIO 70.0 45.0 63.0 17,500 9,000 15,750
OKLA 38.0 42.0 34.0 2,280 2,730 2,040
OREG 80.0 100.0 98.0 5,200 6,500 6,860
PA 57.0 50.0 54.0 14,820 13,000 13,770
sc 51.0 61.0 59.0 1,683 2,928 2,360
S DAK 46.0 25.0 40.0 52,900 20,000 44,000
TEX 45.0 45.0 33.0 9,900 9,000 6,600
UTAH 69.0 72.0 76.0 966 1,008 1,368
VA 47.0 53.0 55.0 329 636 495
WASH 66.0 67.0 63.0 2,310 2,479 2,835
W VA 50.0 48.0 50.0 400 288 300
WIS 54.0 34.0 66.0 43,200 19,720 46 860
WYO 49.0 35.0 47.0 2,205 1,400 1,410
US 54.0 39.2 3 218,853 370,693

1/_ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-9 NASS, USDA


COTTON

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION 1/
> IND: : INO : : INO

1988 =: 1989 : 1988: 1989 1987 : 1988 : 1989

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 2/
375.0 340.0 486 508 397.0 380.0 360.0
349.0 239.0 1,190 1,305 849.0 865.0 650.0
3 675.0 570.0 742 623 901.0 1,044.0 740.0
CALIF : 1,335.0 1,040.0 1,015 1,200 2,989.0 2,824.0 2,600.0
FLA 3/: 29.0 29.0 566 574 39.0 34.2 34.7
A : 315.0 275.0 564 681 338.0 370.0 390.0
KANS 3/ 9 1.2 373 400 9 7 0
A : 645.0 620.0 705 658 977.0 948.0 850.0
MISS : 1,190.0 1,050.0 736 686 1,745.0 1,825.0 1,500.0
MO : 237.0 212.0 620 600 330.0 306.0 265.0
N MEX 69.0 66.0 710 691 89.0 102.0 95.0
c 124.0 110.0 $15 567 98.0 133.0 130.0
OKLA : 435.0 365.0 334 362 346.0 303.0 275.0
c : 142.0 115.0 473 417 106.0 140.0 100.0
TENN : 530.0 445.0 529 464 634.0 584.0 430.0
TEX : 5,300.0 3,700.0 472 376 =64,635.0 5,215.0 2,900.0
VA 3/: 3.2 2.9 510 612 1.4 3.4 3.7
9,180.1 616 592 14,475.3 15,077.3 11,324.4
245.0 904 93] 213.0 241.0 475.0
19.0 853 909 2.2 3.2 36.0
27.0 634 640 18.6 23.5 36.0
74.5 769 773 50.8 66.5 120.0
365.5 848 876 284.6 334.2 667.0
340.0 486 508 397.0 380.0 360.0
484.0 1,113 1,116 1,062.0 1,106.0 1,125.0
570.0 742 623 901.0 1,044.0 740.0
1,059.0 1,015 1,195 2,991.2 2,827.2 2,636.0
29.0 566 574 39.0 34.2 34.7
275.0 564 681 338.0 370.0 390.0
1.2 373 400 9 7 1.0
620.0 705 658 977.0 948.0 850.0
1,050.0 736 686 1,745.0 1,825.0 1,500.0
212.0 620 600 330.0 306.0 265.0
93.0 694 676 107.6 125.5 131.0
110.0 515 567 98.0 133.0 130.0
365.0 334 362 346.0 303.0 275.0
115.0 473 417 106.0 140.0 100.0
445.0 529 464 634.0 584.0 430.0
3,774.5 475 384 «4,685.8 5,281.5 3,020.0
2.9 510 612 1.4 3.4 3.7
9 4

48 LES.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM. EARLIER FORECAST.
COTTONSEED

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-25 NASS, USDA



Crop Gq Agricultural Department of

Production ar
a =

RELEASED: October 12, 1989
3:00 P.M. ET

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production as of October 1, is forecast at 7.45 billion

bushels, up 2 percent from last month and 51 percent above the drought
‘reduced crop of 1988. The crop is being harvested at a slower rate than
normal due to the lateness of Phe crop in some States. By October 1, 16
percent of the crop had been harvested in the 19 major producing States
compared with 34 percent last year and the average of 22 percent.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at 1.93 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the

September 1 forecast and 24 percent above 1988. Favorable weather during
September in Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa improved yield prospects in those
States. In the Southeast, Hurricane Hugo reduced yield potential in the
Carolinas. Dry weather and insect problems during September reduced prospects
in Alabama, Louisiana, and Georgia. Harvest progressed to 18 percent complete
by October 3, 2 points behind normal.

ALL WHEAT production for 1989 is estimated at 2.04 billion bushels, down 1

percent from the September 1 forecast but up 13 percent from 1988. The
1990 winter wheat seedings are slightly ahead of last year and were approxi-
mately 55 percent complete as of October 1

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN production is forecast at 657 million bushels, down frac-

tionally from September 1 but up 14 percent from 1988. As of October 1
approximately 30 percent of the crop had been harvested. Progress was well
along a Texas and Oklahoma but just getting fully started in Kansas and
lebraska.

COTTON production is forecast at 12.0 million bales, down 22 percent from last

year’s production and down 2 percent from September 1. The Western pro-
ducing areas continue with favorable crop conditions, but every other produc-
ing area is lagging behind normal in crop development. Harvest continued in
Aexas and Arizona, but was behind the normal pace in all States except
rizona.

ALL ORANGE production is forecast at 194 million boxes, 6 percent below last

season and 3 percent less than the 1987-88 crop. This decline is due
mostly to Florida’s 11 percent decrease from last year. Freezing weather in
Florida during late February killed most of the open bloom and damaged new
growth.

RIOR IR RII REIKI IR III IRIS III III IA ITA IS I III ASI SSIS SII SSIS SS SISA A.

NOTICE

*

*

Small Grains revised 1988 and preliminary 1989 Annual Summary. ;

Revised acreage, yield, and production for soybeans, sunflower, *
dry edible peas, Austrian winter peas, and lentils for 1988. *

a ee

Revised acreage, yield, and production for winter potatoes for *
*

FESS HII SII III TOTO II IOI IIIT TIT IIA II II SSIS ITI IIS ISIS SSSI S.

CrPr 2-2 (10-89) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


DRY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry edible beans is forecast at 24.7 million

cwt, up 29 percent from last year but 5 percent below 1987.
Area for harvest is set at 1.73 million acres, up 27 percent from last year.
The projected yield of 1428 pounds per acre is up 1 percent from last season.

Late September frost in Michigan ended the growing season for dry beans
with some fields not yet mature. Harvest weather had been excellent with good
yields and quality to October 1. North Dakota dry bean production is rated
poor to fair based on the effects of summer drought. Harvest at the end of
September was 79 percent completed. In Nebraska, hail and frost damage in
September cut yields in the Panhandle. Harvest is 80 percent finished.
Minnesota yields are also down from last month's projection.

Harvest is late in Wyoming with less than two-thirds threshed with lower
yields than anticipated a month ago. Colorado beans were 80 percent cut and
just over half threshed by October 1. Better yields on irrigated fields on
the Eastern Plains offset drought damaged beans in the Southwest. Rain slowed
harvest in Idaho but yields are better than last year. Harvest is also late
in Washington. California dry bean harvest was active during September
although slowed by rain the last half of the month.

LENTILS: Production of lentils is set at 1.04 million cwt, up 16 percent fron

last year but 42 percent less than the 1987 crop. Harvested area
of 84.0 thousand acres is up 18 percent from 1988 while the average yield of
1239 pounds per acre is down 2 percent from last year.

DRY EDIBLE PEAS: Production of dry edible peas is estimated at 3.90 million
cwt, up 1 percent from last year and 15 percent above 1987.

Harvested acreage is set at 174 thousand acres, down 3 percent from a year

ago. The average yield of 2239 pounds per acre is up 4 percent from 1988.

AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS: Growers produced 166 thousand cwt of Austrian

winter peas in 1989, up 25 percent from last year but
less than one-third the production of two years ago. Peas were harvested from
10.2 thousand acres, up 2 percent from 1988; while the yield of 1627 pounds
per acre gained 22 percent from last year.

WINTER POTATOES; REVISED: Production of winter potatoes totaled 2.76 million
cwt, up 6 percent from a year ago and 11 percent

above 1987. Harvested area was 13.1 thousand acres, a gain of 7 percent from

last year. Yield at 211 cwt per acre declined 1 percent from a year ago.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: ‘The pasture and range feed condition on

October 1, 1989, for the 48 contiguous
States was 74 percent, 14 points above October 1, 1988, but 1 point below the
1978-87 average for October 1. The October 1 condition was 1 point above that
on September 1, 1989. Condition improved from last month in 27 States,
declined in 18 States, and was unchanged in 3 States.

Only North Dakota and Utah were in the severe drought range. All States
east of the Mississippi River remained in the poor to fair or good to
excellent ranges. All of the Southeastern States, except for Florida and
Tennessee, had conditions below last month.

Five States (Arizona, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, and Utah) had
conditions below October 1988.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-10 NASS, USDA


ALL WHEAT: ACREAGE
: AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED
STATE [--------+------222 22 ene
1988 2/

1,000 ACRES

ALA : 250 270 300 170 200 220

ARIZ: 91 87 120 89 385 118
ARK : 930 1,120 1,200 840 1,070 1,130
CALIF : 620 560 731 567 519 675
colo =: «3, 160 2,554 2,775 2,555 2,352 2,270
DEL : 50 65 80 48 63 74
FLA : 80 75 80 60 55 65
GA : 550 575 800 460 500 700
IDAHO =: 1,210 1,220 1,460 1,140 1,150 1,370
ILL : 1,100 1,300 1,850 950 1,250 1,780
IND : 750 840 940 600 700 880
IOWA: 90 60 80 30 35 70
KANS —: 10,700 10,200 12,400 9,900 9,500 8,900
KY : 500 550 630 330 380 450
LA > 240 300 390 170 270 350
MD : 175 180 230 165 170 215
MICH =: 450 650 660 400 620 640
MINN =: 2,580 2,520 2,765 2,519 2,250 2,699
MISS =: 400 500 525 350 450 450
MO : 900 1,650 1,970 770 1,550 1,850
MONT =: 4,895 4,730 6,340 4,690 3,830 5,235
NEBR : 2,200 2,300 2,550 1,950 2,000 2,050
NEV : 24 22 18 21 19 15
NJ : 30 35 43 27 31 35
NMEX : 660 520 550 340 290 160
NY : 90 95 135 80 90 130
NC : 490 510 680 440 480 630
N DAK : 9,300 9,250 10,800 9,135 7,230 10,330
OHIO. =: ~— 850 1,000 1,260 800 920 1,230
OKLA: 7,200 7,000 7,300 4,800 4,800 5,700
OREG =: 845 800 950 810 755 905
PA : 190 175 220 185 170 215,
SC : 290 320 460 275 305 435
S DAK =: 3,660 3,650 3,930 3,528 2,638 3,520
TENN : 440 530 540 350 430 450
TEX : 6,800 6,300 6,700 3,600 3,200 3,000
UTAH =: 212 184 190 199 177 177
VA : 275 230 300 215 200 275
WASH 2,100 2,170 3,100 2,015 2,060 2,270
WVA: 13 ist 16 Il 9 12
WIS : 115 150 212 88 133 180

WO =: 329 271 270 288 238 221
us :

1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL. 2/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-12 NASS, USDA


BARLEY: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

PRODUCTION

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ARIZ 99.0 104.0 103.0 2,178 1,352 1,236
CALIF 54.0 61.0 56.0 -17,820 17,080 13,440
COLO 66.0 67.0 76.0 14,520 11,725 12,160
DEL 62.0 72.0 55.0 3,224 2,160 2,200
IDAHO 75.0 60.0 70.0 61,500 51,000 59,500
KANS 40.0 35.0 32.0 4,800 2,975 576
KY 67.0 77.0 67.0 737 1,078 1,139
MD 67.0 69.0 50.0 5,963 4,761 4,000
MICH 55.0 32.0 58.0 2,750 1,216 2,320
MINN 57.0 32.0 55.0 49,590 27,200 44,000
MONT 45.0 24.07 43.0 94,500 30,000 68,800
NEBR 36.0 32.0 26.0 2,700 1,920 650
NEV : 90.0 80.0 90.0 2,970 2,480 2,430
NJ : 60.0 67.0 59.0 900 603 472
N MEX : 70.0 65.0 75.0 770 390 375
NC 62.0 68.0 48.0 2,480 2,856 2,064
N DAK 48.0 21.0 37.0 139,200 45,150 98,050
OKLA 30.0 48.0 45.0 750 768 900
OREG 70.0 74.0 67.0 15,400 14,800 12,060
PA 57.0 66.0 59.0 3,420 3,630 5,015
SC 49.0 60.0 56.0 637 840 560
S DAK 40.0 18.0 35.0 34,000 8,100 19,250
TEX 40.0 30.0 32.0 1,200 540 480
UTAH 83.0 77.0 76.0 11,786 9,625 8,892
VA 66,0 71.0 65.0 5,148 5,325 4,875
WASH 55.0 62.0 58.0 35,475 34,720 28,420
WIS 54.0 34.0 57.0 4,752 2,550 3,705
wyo 70.0 62.0 70.0 10,360 8, 680 7,000
Us 52.7 38.2 48.6 529,530 293,524 404,569
1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

OCTOBER 1989 A-11 NASS, USDA


SORGHUM: Production is forecast at 657 million bushels, down fractionally
from September 1 but up 14 percent from 1988. Area for grain is
unchanged from the previous forecast at 10.5 million acres. This level is up
16 percent from last year. Average yield prospects are for 62.4 bushels per
acre, down 0.2 bushels from September 1 and 1.4 bushels less than in 1988.

Excellent harvest weather the first half of September in Arkansas gave way
to harvest-delaying rains the rest of the month. Sorghum grain harvest has
started in Colorado although less than half of the crop is mature. Conditions
point to a record output if the crop matures before frosts occur. September
precipitation has benefited Kansas soil moisture levels but has delayed
sorghum maturity.

Grain sorghum condition declined since September 1 in Nebraska. Lack of
timely moisture and a mid-September frost have cut yield potential. Excellent
soil moisture continues to have Oklahoma growers expecting record yields.

RICE: The 1989 rice production is forecast at 155 million cwt, down 3 percent
from the 160 million cwt produced in 1988. The October 1 forecast is
up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast.

Yield is expected to average 5,649 pounds per acre, up 138 pounds from
last year. Yields are up from last year in Arkansas and California, down in
Louisiana and Texas, and unchanged in Mississippi. In Arkansas, the
forecasted yield of 5,600 pounds per acre is up 350 pounds from the
1 forecast and surpasses the record yield of 5,350 pounds set in 1988. Yields
in Louisiana and Texas were down from last month.

On October 1, 65 percent of the rice was harvested, 7 points behind
normal. First crop harvest was complete in Texas and nearly complete in
Louisiana. Rain slowed harvest in California and Mississippi where harvest
lagged behind normal. Harvest weather conditions have been favorable in
Arkansas where harvest was 64 percent complete, 3 points behind normal.

SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at 1.93 billion bushels, up 2 percent from

the September 1 forecast and 24 percent above 1988. Average yield
is estimated at 32.6 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels from September i and 5.7
bushels above 1988.

Favorable weather during September in Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa
improved yield prospects in those States. Illinois is up 1 bushel from
September 1, Minnesota, up 3 bushels, and Iowa, up 2 bushels. Arkansas is up
2 bushels from last month. In the Southeast, Hurricane Hugo reduced yield
potential in the Carolinas. Dry weather and insect problems during September
reduced prospects in Alabama, Louisiana, and Georgia.

Harvest progressed to 18 percent complete by October 3, 2 points behind
normal. Indiana, Nebraska, and Ohio were behind nomml harvest progress,
while Iowa was well ahead of normal.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-6 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE

PRODUCTION
IND

IND

1988 : 1989

1988 : 1989 : 1988 1989
ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
CLASS 1, FLUE-CURED
TYPE 11, OLD AND
MIDDLE BELTS :
NC : 92,000 100,000 2,095 2,050 192,740 205,000
VA : 35,000 37,000 2,055 2,100 71,925 77,700
US : 127,000 137,000 2,084 2,064 264,665 282,700
TYPE 12, EASTERN N C
BELT :
NC : 118,000 128,000 2,325 2,150 274,350 275,200
TYPE 13, N C BORDER &:
SC BELT :
NC : 32,000 34,000 2,220 2,150 71,040 73,100
sc 45,000 50,000 2,225 2,200 100,125 110,000
US 77,000 84,000 2,223 2,180 171,165 183,100
TYPE 14, GA-FLA BELT
FLA : 6,400 7,000 2,680 2,700 17,152 18,900
GA : 38,000 40,000 2,260 2,250 85,880 90,000
US : 44,400 47,000 2,321 2,317 103,032 108,900
TOTAL 11-14 : 366,400 396,000 2,219 2,146 813,212 849,900

CLASS 2, FIRE-CURED
TYPE 21, VA BELT

VA : 2,300 2,200 1,270 1,400 2,920 3,080
TYPE 22, EASTERN
DISTRICT Jt
KY : 2,600 3,400 2,480 1,950 6,448 6,630
TENN : 5,600 6,700 2,385 2,200 13,356 14,740
US : 8,200 10,100 2,415 2,116 19,804 21,370
TYPE 23, WESTERN
DISTRICT :
KY : 2,600 3,200 2,670 2,100 6,942 6,720
TENN : 440 530 2,450 2,400 1,078 1,272
Us : 3,040 3,730 2,638 2,143 8,020 7,992
TOTAL 21-23 : 13,540 16,030 2,271 2,024 30,744 32,442

CLASS 3, AIR-CURED
CLASS 3A, LIGHT
AIR-CURED
TYPE 31, BURLEY
IND : 5,500 6,100 1,990 2,170 10,945 13,237
KY + 180,000 172,000 2,235 2,250 335,250 387,000

MO 1/ : 2,100 2,400 2,100 2,200 4,410 5,280
NC : 7,900 8,500 1,835 1,800 14,497 15,300
OHIO : 7,800 9,000 1,855 1,900 14,469 17,100
TENN : 42,000 45,000 1,850 1,800 77,700 81,000
VA : 9,300 10,500 1,850 2,200 17,205 23,100
WVA 1/ : 1,700 1,800 1,600 1,500 2,720 2,700
US : 226,300 255,300 2,109 2,134 477,196 544,717
TYPE 32, SOUTHERN MD
BELT 2
MD : 9,000 8,500 1,330 1,380 11,970 11,730
PA : 3,500 4,000 1,850 1,800 6,475 7,200
US : 12,500 12,500 1,476 1,514 18,445 18,930
TOTAL 31-32 : 238,800 267,800 2,076 2,105 495,641 563,647
SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE A-33. CONTINUED
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

OCTOBER 1989 A-32 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 1.48 billion pounds, 1

percent less than forecast a month ago but 8 percent greater than
the 1988 total. Of the tobacco producing States, outlook declined from
September 1 in 6, improved in 5, and was unchanged in the remainder. ‘The
larger production expected in 1989 is the result of increased acreage which
is partially offset by lower yields. The average yield of 2122 pounds per
acre expected is 38 pounds less than last year. Area for harvest is 10
percent greater than a year earlier.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 850 million pounds, a decline
of 3 percent from the September 1 expectations but 5 percent more than last

year's output. During September, outlook declined in 3 of the 5 producing
dtates and was unchanged in the ‘remaining two. Compared with a year ago,
acreage for harvest is 8 percent higher but the yield per acre of 2146 pounds
is 73 pounds lower than in 1988.

North Carolina's flue-cured crop was 95 percent harvested by October 1,
slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 92 percent. Marketings are leading
a year earlier in the Old and Middle Belts but trailing in the Eastern and
Border Belts. Most of South Carolina's tobacco was harvested before Hurricane
Hugo smashed into the coastal counties on the night of September 21. However,
considerable poundage was lost during the curing process as curing barns were
damaged and power was out for several days.

Burley output is expected to reach 545 million pounds, 1 percent more than
forecast on September 1 and 14 percent above the production of a year earlier.
The change from a year ago is primarily the result of increased acreage,
though yields are also up. Acreage is 13 percent greater than in 1988. A
2134 pound per acre yield is expected compared with 2109 pounds last year.

The Kentucky burley crop is 92 percent harvested compared with a 95 per-
cent average. A few producers have started stripping their crop. Harvest is
complete in Tennessee and stripping is underway.

Dark fire-cured production is forecast at 32.4 million pounds, 6 percent
above 1988. Acreage is up 18 percent but yield is off 247 pounds per acre.

Southern Maryland type 32 production is projected to reach 18.9 million

pounds, up 3 percent from a year earlier. Acreage is unchanged but yield per
acre is forecast at 1514 pounds per acre, up 38 pounds from 1988.

Dark air-cured tobacco production is expected to total 8.60 million
pounds, 14 percent more than a year earlier. Increased acreage is being
partially offset by lower yields.

Production of all cigar-type tobacco is estimated at 23.5 million pounds,
up 4 percent from the previous year's output. Cigar binder is up 24 percent
but filler and wrapper production is off 9 and 4 percent, respectively.

SUGARBEETS: The 26.6 million ton sugarbeet production forecast is fractionally

above the September 1 forecast and up 7 percent from last year's

‘ion. The increase from a year ago reflects both increased acreage and

higher yields. An average yield of 20.1 tons per acre is expected compared
with the 19.1 tons realized last year.

Lifting of beets began the middle of September in the Red River Valley of
Minnesota and North Dakota. This was later than usual. Low temperatures on
October 3 halted lifting temporarily.

Forecasted production is off from last year in California. Reduced
acreage is only artially being offset by higher yields.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-11 NASS, USDA



WINTER POTATOES

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

STATE pe en een en nee n ence eee cence ene e enn e cee tonne ene neenenasennesenes
1988 1989 1/ 1988 1989 1/
1,000 ACRES
CALIF 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.5
FLA 7.3 7.6 TA 7.6
TOTAL 12.5 13.1 12.3 13.1
YIELD
1988 1989 1/ : 1989 1/
cwT 1,000 CWT
CALIF 230 240 1,196 1,320
FLA 200 190 1,420 1,444
TOTAL 213 211 2,616 2,784

1/_ REVISED.

STATE : AVERAGE
: 1978-87

68
78
67
84
77
77
67
81
63
82
75
77
8]
74
74
75
81
69
82
83
82
72
73
73
78

AVERAGE : 1988 : 1989

1978-87

82 56 63
86 91 98
72 83 96
82 99 62
82 75 72
72 82 90
71 26 48
77 75 86
69 60 94
84 64 82
74 68 80
84 90 95
64 74 83
76 39 50
73 75 95
64 50 56
84 53 48
85 88 91
78 77 96
78 67 82
76 65 92
87 45 72
82 49 63
75 60 74

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64;
SEVERE DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION

OCTOBER 1989

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
A-31 NASS, USDA



OATS: ACREAGE

AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED

STATE 3 ----------- 9-2 or nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nen enn ene nnn eer e ccc rect eee
1987 1988 2/ 1989 1987 1988 2/ : 1989
1,000 ACRES
ALA : 45 35 45 25 20 25
ARK : 22 40 60 18 35 52
CALIF: 380 365 400 40 35 45
COLO : 100 110 95 50 60 55
GA : 55 80 90 30 45 70
IDAHO: 65 70 90 36 45 60
ILL : 2,100 1,400 700 190 180 200
IND : 600 350 200 95 75 95
IOWA : 4,200 2,100 1,550 650 550 700
KANS : 240 225 280 155 150 200
ky i 27 30 24 7 8 8
MAINE: 42 42 42 38 39 39
MD : 21 20 28 19 17 24
MICH : 350 300 330 300 200 300
MINN : 2,100 1,700 1,250 800 750 850
MO : 180 120 110 90 40 60
MONT : 235 210 250 110 90 145
NEBR : 810 650 500 360 320 240
NJ : 6 6 8 5 4 6
NY : 250 180 180 200 145 155
NC : 105 100 100 60 55 55
N DAK : 1,050 1,100 1,150 700 400 650
OHIO : 350 300 300 250 200 250
OKLA : 160 140 130 60 65 60
OREG : 90 95 105 65 65 70
PA : 290 290 280 260 260 255
sc : 60 85 70 33 48 40
S DAK : 1,400 1,400 1,450 1,150 800 1,100
TEX : 1,100 1,100 1,100 220 200 200
UTAH : 28 32 36 14 14 18
VA : 35 35 27 7 12 9
WASH : 75 80 85 35 37 45
W VA : 13 10 10 8 6 6
WIS : 1,300 1,050 940 800 580 710
Wyo : 75 77 67 45 40 30
US : 17,959 13,927 12,082 6,925 5,590 6,827

1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED PRECEDING FALL. 2/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-8 NASS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

PRODUCTION

1,000 BUSHELS

ALA 1/ 25 30 41.0 55.0 1,920 1,025 1,650
ARIZ 1/ 4 4 100.0 90.0 990 400 360
ARK 310 340 68.0 72.0 27,540 21,080 24,480
CALIF 1/ 15 12 80.0 89.0 1,800 1,200 1,068
COLO 180 325 46.0 50.0 9,890 8,280 16,250
GA y/ 40 50 35.0 50.0 2,400 1,400 2,501
TLL 80 140 75.0 85.0 12,040 6,000 11,900
KANS, 3,300 3,500 62.0 65.0 273,750 204,600 227,500
KY Y 10 ll 55.0 85.0 1,82 550

LA 90 110 68.0 60.0 12,384 6,120 6,600
MISS 155 85 56.0 60.0 9,425 8,680 5,100
MO 470 570 81.0 83.0 59,500 38,070 47,310
NEBR 1,360 1,600 76.0 63.0 109,200 103,360 100,800
N MEX 45 170 60.0 55.0 798! 8,7 >
NC 1/ 65 60 42.0 58.0 1,935 2,730 3,480
OKLA 360 375 45.0 51.0 18,860 16,200 19,125
sc V/ 8 15 32.0 45.0 555 67!
S$ _DAK 250 290 44.0 44.0 14,310 11,000 12,760
TENN 35 33 70.0 75.0 6,000 2,450 2,475
TEX 2,150 2,800° 63.0 58.0 166,950 135,450 162,400
us 9,052 10,520 63.8 62.4 739,249 577,551 656,718

PRODUCTION
STATE IND

1988 1989

1,000 ACRES _ POUNDS 1,000 CWT
ARK : 1,210.0 1,140.0 5,350 5,600 53,025 64,735 63,840
CALIF i 420.0 410.0 7,000 7,700 27,935 29,490 31,570
LA z 535.0 517.0 4,500 4,300 19,110 24,080 22,231
MISS 3 260.0 245.0 5,300 5,300 10,098 13,780 12,985
MO vee 82.0 85.0 5,100 5,000 3,564 4,182 4,250
TEX : 388.0 349.0 6,000 5,800 15,871 23,280 20,242
us : 2,895.0 2,746.0 5,511 5,649 129,603 159,547 155,118

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
RICE PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES 1/

YEAR : LONG GRAIN : MEDIUM GRAIN : SHORT GRAIN : ALL
1,000 CWT

1987 : 88,995 37,651 2,957 129,603

1988 : 118,664 37,591 3,292 159,547

1989 : 110,931 40,430 3,758 155,118

1/__ INDICATED OCTOBER 1, 1989, RICE CLASS FORECASTS ARE BASED ON A FIVE-YEAR
AVERAGE OF CLASS PERCENTAGES. THE CLASS PERCENTAGES ARE ADJUSTED AS DATA BE-
COME AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-22 NASS, USDA


SMALL GRAINS

OATS: Production of oats in 1989 is estimated at 371 million bushels, 69 per-

cent above the drought reduced crop of 1988 but 1 percent below the

4987 crop. The area harvested at 6.83 million acres is up 22 percent from
year. :

The yield for grain averaged 54.3 bushels per acre, up 15.1 bushels from
last year's yield of 39.2 bushels. Seeded area totaled 12.1 million acres in
1989, down 13 percent from 1988.

In the four major producing States, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and South
Dakota, yields are up sharply from the drought reduced levels of last year.
Dry conditions in North and South Dakota during the summer reduced yields from
earlier expectations.

BARLEY: Barley production in 1989 is estimated at 405 million bushels, 38

above last year's crop of 294 million bushels. Average yield
per acre is 48.6 bushels, up 10.4 bushels from the 1988 yield. Yields in the
four major producing States of North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, and Minnesota
are well above last year.

The area seeded in 1989 totaled 9.20 million acres, down 7 percent from
1988. The area harvested for grain is 8.32 million acres, up 8 percent from
1988.

ALL WHEAT: Production for 1989 is estimated at 2.04 billion bushels, off 1

from the September 1 forecast but up 13 percent from 1988.
Area harvested for grain is placed at 62.1 million acres, 1 percent less than
the September 1 forecast, up 17 percent from last year. Yields averaged 32.9
bushels per acre this year, unchanged from September 1 but 1.2 bushels per
acre less than the 1988 average.

U.S. ALL WHEAT PRODUCTION
1980 - 1989

BILLION BUSHELS
50

al INN
1.50: INN LS
100} NN \\ \

CROP PRODUCTION
OCTOBER 1989



WINTER WHEAT: Production is estimated at 1.45 billion bushels, 1 percent less

than the August 1 forecast and 7 percent less than in 1988.
Growers averaged 35.1 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushels from August 1 but 4.1
bushels less than in 1988. Harvested area is 41.4 million acres, up 4 percent
from a year ago.

Harvest of the 1989 crop was virtually complete by mid-September. Rain
in the Pacific Northwest delayed wrap-up of the harvest and also led to some
sprout damage. This lowered quality but did not seriously affect yields in
that area. Yields are above 1988 in the northern Plains, most of the Corn
Belt and in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: The 1989 crop is estimated at 497 million bushels, down

1 percent from the last forecast but nearly two and a
half times the size of the 1988 crop. This production was harvested from 17.0
million acres, the most acreage since 1953. The acreage level is off 1 per-
cent from September 1 but up 61 percent from last year. Yields averaged 29.2
bushels per acre, up 9.7 bushels from last season. Most producing States
recorded better yields than last season.

DURUM WHEAT: Production for 1989 is estimated at 92.9 million bushels, down

1 percent from September 1 but up 107 percent from 1988's
drought reduced crop. Yields averaged 25.3 bushels per acre, 0.9 bushels less
than the September 1 forecast but 9.6 bushels more than last year. Acres for
grain are 3.67 million, up 29 percent from 1988.

Harvest in the desert durum areas (Arizona and California) finished by
mid-July. The two-State area averaged 86.1 bushels per acre this year, down
from 1988's 90.9 bushel average. The northern durum wheat harvest ended in
mid-September in North Dakota. Average yields are much improved over 1988,
but still not back to pre-drought levels.

RYE: Production for 1989 is estimated at 13.6 million bushels, down 10 per-

cent from 1988 and is the lowest production on record. Area harvested
dropped to 483 thousand acres, 20 percent less than last year. Area seeded
is estimated at 2.04 million acres, down 16 percent from 1988. Both acreages
are at record low levels. Yields per acre averaged 28.2 bushels this year,
compared with the 1988 average of 24.8 bushels per acre.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-2 NASS, USDA


CALIFORNIA FRUITS AND NUTS: Mid-month heavy rains caused a temporary halt on

harvest of most crops in northern California.
Picking and packing of the apple crop continued across the State. Avocado
harvest was slow throughout the month. Table grape harvest remained active.
Varieties being packed were Red Globe, Christmas Rose, Ruby and Thompson
seedless, Flame and Ribier. Raisin grapes were laid to dry with rain damage
varying by area. Olive harvest began, while harvest of Freestone peaches, plums,
prunes and nectarines was completed. Valencia orange picking and packing
continued, while grapefruit harvest was nearly complete by month's end. The
almond harvest was in full swing with the Nonpareil variety concluded. Walnut
and pistachio harvests were well underway with some quality damage caused by
rain.

HKAIAIR IIA III IKI III ISAS IIA III ISI IIIS II III III IIIA IIASA III ISI IIIS IS.
* NOTICE

Requests for a subscription order form covering all available
reports should be directed to ERS/NASS, P.O. Box 1608, Rockville,
MD. 20849-1608 or call 800-999-6779.

The next issue of this report will be published November 9, 1989
and will include:

November: Indicated areas harvested, yield, and production as of
Nov. 1 for corn for grain, cotton, rice, sorghum for grain, dry
edible beans, soybean for beans, peanuts for nuts, tobacco (by
types and classes), sugarbeets, and sugarcane for sugar and seed.
Planted acres, indicated area harvested, yield, and production
of fall potatoes. Percent of 1989 fall potatoes planted by
variety.

Indicated production of rice by classes (U.S.); Production of
Cottonseed; Production of prunes (California), filberts, and 1989
-90 citrus fruits; papaya acreage and production. Index of
production by groups of crops for United States and condition of
pastures and ranges.

HH RO Oe
ee ee ee ee ee ee

*

Cropping practice data for selected States; corn plant Population, * *
* corn and soybean row width.
NN EE ES ni dikinkiniunediiiitirkeeebienekkintinien

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-17 NASS, USDA



ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE 3 : IND : IND
: 1988 1/ : 1989 1988 1987 : 1988 1989
1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS

ARIZ 3 155 150 7.90 1,248 1,225 1,185
ARK 2/ 35 35 2.30 105 81 105
CALIF : 1,100 1,020 6.60 7,705 7,260 6,936
COLO : 780 760 3.40 2,905 2,652 2,508
CONN 2/ : 19 19 2.65 55 50 51
DEL 2/ : 9 9 3.75 25 34 37
IDAHO : 920 930 3.80 3,978 3,496 3,720
ILL : 950 650 2.50 2,223 2,375 2,665
IND 3 460 380 2.60 1,444 1,196 1,558
IOWA : 2,400 1,550 2.35 5,438 5,640 4,495
KANS : 750 850 3.30 3,230 2,475 3,230
KY : 320 350 2.80 858 896 1,400
LA as: 10 5 2.80 34 28 15
MAINE 2/- : 2l 22 2.50 54 53 55
MD a: 80 85 3.75 319 300 366
MASS 2/ : 31 32 2.50 78 78 80
MICH : 1,300 1,300 2.60 3,776 3,380 4,680
MINN : 2,400 1,700 1.90 5,950 4,560 4,420
MO : 400 450 2.10 1,218 840 1,305
MONT 3 1,100 1,300 1.90 2,860 2,090 2,860
NEBR : 1,350 1,400 3.00 4,615 4,050 4,200
NEV : 250 245 4.20 1,029 1,050 1,029
NH 2/3: 19 19 2.50 55 48 48
NJ 2% : 39 34 3.10 136 121 112
N MEX : 220 220 4.90 1,224 1,078 1,100
NY : 970 880 2.70 2,604 2,619 2,552
NC 2/ 3 30 30 2.75 70 83 90
N DAK : 1,000 1,600 0.75 3,040 750 1,920
OHIO $ 725 725 2.90 2,683 2,103 2,610
OKLA : 410 430 3.10 1,353 1,271 1,720
OREG : 415 425 4.10 1,806 1,702 1,870
PA : 840 820 2.90 2,720 2,436 2,788
RI 2: 2 2 2.75 8 6 6
S_ DAK : 2,100 2,200 1.10 5,170 2,310 2,640
TENN 2/ : 100 90 2.10 324 210 270
TEX : 100 110 3.90 490 390 462
UTAH : 480 490 3.90 1,907 1,872 1,813
VT ay: 105 100 2.20 300 231 240
VA 2/: 120 150 3.20 347 384 555
WASH : 490 460 4.20 1,978 2,058 1,978
WVA 2/ : 70 65 2.30 224 161 189
WIS : 3,100 2,900 1.40 7,840 4,340 8,700
WYO : 520 550 2.50 1,368 1,300 1,320
US 2 26,695 25,542 2,60 3.13 84,794 69,282 79,883

1/ INCLUDES SUBSTANTIAL ACREAGE OF SET ASIDE AND CONSERVATION RESERVE ACRES
THAT WERE RELEASED FOR HAYING AND HARVESTED FOR HAY DUE TO DROUGHT.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-28 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED 1/
CROP — oe : INDICATED
1988 : 1989 : 1988 7 1989

1,000 ACRES
CORN : 67,619 72,320 58,164 65,109

SORGHUM : 10,358 11,945 9,052 10,520
RICE : 2,928 2,771 2,895 2,746
SOYBEANS 2/ : 58,960 60,475 57,483 59,073
PEANUTS : 1,657.4 1,677.0 1,628.4 1,645.0
SUNFLOWER 2/ : 2,038 1,819 1,921 1,765
ALL COTTON :  12,509.8 10,520.5 11,943.2 9,545.6
UPLAND :  12,320.2 10,179.5 11,754.1 9,180.1
AMER-PIMA 3 189.6 341.0 189.1 365.5
ALL HAY : 65,559 62,743
ALFALFA : 26,695 25,542
ALL OTHER : 38,864 37,201
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 7 1,498.4 1,842.8 1,366.0 1,730.7
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 2/ : 181.0 175.0 179.0 174.0
AUSTRIAN WINTER PE 2/ : 13.0 12.2 10.0 10.2
LENTILS 2/ 3 72.0 86.0 71.0 84.0
TOBACCO 3 634.1 696.6
SUGARBEETS : 1,327.2 1,344.1 1,300.7 1,323.0
SUGARCANE FOR :
SUGAR AND SEED : 845.3 866.7

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, J.£., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/ 1988 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

: » INDICATED
1989 1/ : 1988 : 1989 1/

FLAXSEED : 275 230 226 223
POTATOES :
WINTER 2/ : 12.5 13.1 13.1
SPRING : 80.9 87.8 84.0
SUMMER : 96.4 95.9 91.7
FALL : 1,094.9 1,086.4 1,063.5
TOTAL 2/ : 1,284.7 1,283.2 1,252.3
SWEETPOTATOES : 93.5 93.6 90.6
HOPS : 34.5

1/_ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1989 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-4 NASS, USDA


Bureau of Census reports 980,877 running bales ginned prior to October 1,
compared with 2,278,874 running bales for the same date last year and
3,195,927 running bales in 1987.

COTTONSEED: Production for 1989, based on a three year average lint-seed

ratio, is expected to total 4.68 million tons, down 23 percent
from the 1988 prodiction Sf 6.06 million tons.

U.S. ALL COTTON PRODUCTION
1980 - 1989

MILLION BALES
18.0

me = sccaseaseceusecsseeeeseccececeecceceeceseseueeuransaaenneees SAI es
‘ool NG
| INININ!
sl ae

B10 bons par Bere Come LER eee eae are ere ye corecast 3f
tons per acre.

MRA HAY! percent greater than the quantity expected August 1 and up 13

great i August 1 up 15
percent from the 1988 total. The larger crop is coming from fewer acres than
last year's drought reduced crop. Area for harvest, at 25.5 million acres,
is down 4 percent from a year ago. Average yield forecast at 3.13 tons per
acre, is 0.53 of a ton higher than the 1988 yield.

ALL OTHER HAY: Production of all other hay is forecast at 70.6 million tons,

5 percent above August 1 expectations and 23 percent larger
than the 1988 output. Area for harvest, at 37.2 million acres, is off 4
percent froma year earlier. Yield is expected to average 1.90 tons per acre,
up 0.09 tons from the August forecast and up 0.42 of a ton from the previous
year.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-9 NASS, USDA



SOYBEAN REVISIONS - 1988: Production in 1988 was revised to 1.55 billion

bushels, up 1 percent from the previous estimate

of 1.54 billion bushels. Yield per acre was revised up 0.1 bushels to 26.9

S per acre. Harvested acreage changed from 57.4 million acres to 57.5
million acres.

These revisions were based upon additional survey data in same States, end
of marketing year stock estimates, and disappearance data for exports and
crushings.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
1980 - 1989

° BILLION BUSHELS

2.19 2.10

1.99 —7| 194 192 1.
2.00 |---+4:80 N bce 8 KT] P92 oss

184 165

1.60 INS ; NIN
1.00 SS; SING

0.00

oO
~)

Wd

80 81 82 83 84 86 86 87 88 89

YEAR

SUNFLOWER: All sunflower production is forecast at 1.68 billion pounds in

1989, 6 percent below last year. This forecast includes the five
States of Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas. Area for
harvest is estimated at 1. 17 million acres, 8 percent less than 1988. The
five-state yield is forecast at 954 pounds per acre, up 21 pounds from last
year. Yield per acre and respective change From 1988 by State are: Texas at
1,400 pounds, up 63 pounds; Kansas at 1,170 pounds, down 60 pounds; Minnesota
at 1,150 pounds» down 213 pounds; South Dakota at 1,000 pounds, up 180 pounds;
and North Dakota at 900 pounds, up 8 pounds.

The North Dakota sunflower crop developed slightly behind normal during
the growing season. Conditions were fair to good until dry weather during the
summer months persisted into the early fall, deteriorating yield potential.
North Dakota's harvest was 14 percent complete by October 1, 7 points ahead
of normal. South Dakota's harvest progressed slightly ahead of normal as 14
percent was harvested by October 1. In Kansas, a September frost on the 23rd
and 24th caused concern over yield potential.

PEANUTS: Production is forecast at 4.34 billion pounds, up 9 percent from
last year but down 2 percent from the September 1 forecast. This
production level is the second largest crop for the U.S. Harvested area,
estimated at 1.65 million acres, is the largest acreage for harvest since
1955, and is up 1 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 2,639
pounds per harvested acre, up 194 pounds fron 1988 but down 49 pounds from
month.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULIURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 Be? NASS, USDA



WINTER WHEAT: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

YIELD : PRODUCTION
DO ee
1987 1988 1/ : 1989 : 1987 : 1988 1/ : 1989
BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 31.0 43.0 30.0 5,270 8,600 6,600
ARIZ : 95.0 98.0 93.0 4,180 3,430 3,162
ARK : 41.0 53.0 44.0 34,440 56,710 49,720
CALIF : 76.0 83.0 77.0 38,760 38,180 43,890
COLO : 37.5 33.0 26.0 93,750 75,900 57,200
DEL 2 42.0 52.0 42.0 2,016 3,276 3,108
FLA : 30.0 37.0 29.0 1,800 2,035 1,885
GA : 31.0 43.0 32.0 14,260 21,500 22,400
IDAHO =: 75.0 66.0 70.0 60,000 50,820 56,700
ILL : 59.0 54.0 59.0 56,050 67,500 105,020
IND : 58.0 50.0 59.0 34,800 35,000 51,920
IOWA : 38.0 35.0 47.0 1,140 1,225 3,290
KANS : 37.0 34.0 24.0 366 , 300 323,000 213,600
KY : 49.0 54.0 50.0 16,170 20,520 22,500
LA : 31.0 41.0 31.0 5,270 11,070 10,850
MD : 49.0 53.0 40.0 8,085 9,010 8,600
MICH : 48.0 42.0 53.0 19,200 26,040 33,920
MINN : 33.0 24.0 38.0 2,970 1,440 4,560
MISS : 36.0 46.0 34.0 12,600 20,700 15,300
MO : 46.0 50,0 47.0 35,420 77,500 86,950
MONT : 36.0 19,0 36.0 79,200 39,900 54,000
NEBR > 44.0 36.0 27.0 85,800 72,000 55,350
NEV : 90.0 80.0 80.0 630 560 480
Ng : 45.0 45.0 39.0 1,215 1,395 1,365
N MEX : 32.0 24.0 20.0 10,880 6,960 3,200
NY : 47.0 55.0 45.0 3,760 4,950 5,850
NC : 41.0 50.0 34.0 18,040 24,000 21,420
N DAK : 32.0 13.0 29.0 5,920 1,690 2,320
OHIO > 58.0 50.0 51.0 46,400 46,000 62,730
OKLA : 27.0 36.0 27.0 129,600 172,800 153,900
OREG : 66.0 71,0 60.0 49,500 46,860 48,000
PA > 43.0 53.0 37.0 7,955 9,010 7,955
Sc : 38.0 46.0 41.0 10,450 14,030 17,835
S DAK : 34.0 17.0 26.0 55,080 21,590 35,100
TENN : 41.0 50.0 42.0 14,350 21,500 18,900
TEX : 28.0 28.0 20.0 100,800 89,600 60,000
UTAH : 43.0 36.0 32.0 7,310 5,580 4,960
VA : 45.0 52.0 46.0 9,675 10,400 12,650
WASH : 57.0 62.0 54.0 104,025 108,500 70,200
W VA > 45.0 46.0 43.0 495 414 516
WIS : 54.0 40.0 53.0 3,240 5,000 9,010
WYO : 31.0 22.0 23.0 8,370 4,950 4,830
US : 39.8 39.2 35.1 1,565,176 1,561,145 1,451,746
1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

OCTOBER 1989 A-15 NASS, USDA



OTHER SPRING WHEAT

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

1,000 ACRES

colo: 60 54 75 55 52 70

IDAHO: 350 400 580 340 380 560
MINN : 2,450 2,400 2,600 2,400 2,150 2,550
MONT > 2,400 2,000 3,500 2,300 1,500 3,400
NEV : 16 14 ll 14 12 9
N DAK : 6,200 6,200 7,600 6,100 4,700 7,250
OREG : 65 100 110 60 95 105
SOAK : 1,850 1,850 2,200 1,800 1,300 2,050
UTAH : 32 24 25 29 22 22
WASH : 200 320 1,000 190 310 970
WIS I 30 10 12 28 8 10
wyo : 29 21 20 18 13 ll
US

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
COLO 66.0 70.0 70.0 3,630 3,640 4,900
IDAHO 75.0 65.0 66.0 25,500 24,700 36,960
MINN 41.0 23.0 38.0 98,400 49,450 96,900
MONT 29.0 12.0 26.0 66,700 18,000 88,400
NEV > 75.0 65.0 80.0 1,050 780 720
N DAK : 31.0 15.0 24.0 189, 100 70,500 174,000
OREG : 57.0 52.0 47.0 3,420 4,940 4,935
S_DAK 27.0 12.0 22.0 48,600 15,600 45,100
UTAH 57.0 54.0 45.0 1,653 1,188 990
WASH 54.0 52.0 45.0 10,260 16,120 43,650
WIS 33.0 19.0 31.0 924 152 310
WYO 25.0 30.0 34.0 450 390 374
US 2 33.7 19.5 29.2 449,687 205, 460 497,239
1/_ REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-17 NASS, USDA



SMALL GRAINS - ANNUAL SUMMARY
AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED, UNITED STATES
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED

1987 1988 1/ 1989 : 1987 1988 1/ 1989
~ HECTARES

OATS t 7,267,830 5,636,120 4,889,460 2,802,480 2,262,220 2,762,820
BARLEY : 4,470,210 3,994,690 3,724,360 4,069,970 3,108,020 3,367,830
ALL WHEAT : 26,642,360 26,518,930 30,979,020 22,646,460 21,518,980 25,123,560
WINTER —: 19,753,320 19,748,870 22,268,470 15,923,340 16,100,590 16,754,570
DURUM : 1,352,070 1,350,050 1,534,180 1,326,980 1,152,150 1,486,430
OTH SPRING: 5,536,970 5,420,010 7,176,370 5,396,140 4,266,240 6,882,560
RYE 1,010,920 980,970 827,190 276,400 245,650 195,470

1/ REVISED.

YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION

1988 1/ : 1989

METRIC TONS

OATS 1.94 1.40 1.95 5,428,600 3,176,640 5,380,590
BARLEY 2.83 2.06 2.62 11,529,150 6,390,730 8,808,450
ALL WHEAT : = 2.53 2.29 2.21 57,356,200 49,299,200 55,570,980
WINTER =: 2.68 2.64 2.36 42,597,110 42,487,400 39,510,050
DURUM > 1.90 1.06 1.70 2,520,620 1,220,100 2,528,300
OTH SPRING: 2.27 1.31 1.97 12,238,470 5,591,700 13,532,630
RYE > 1.82 1.56 1.77 503,400 382,210 345,710
1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

OCTOBER 1989 A-3 NASS, USDA


PECANS

PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE
1988

1,000 POUNDS

IMPROVED W/:

ALA : 13,750 6,000 12,000
ARK : 800 1,900

CALIF af: 2,000 1,700
FLA : 3,100 3,400 2,900
GA : 100,000 95,000 81,000
LA z 2,500 4,500 2,000
MISS t 8,000 6,500 6,500
‘ MEX : 25,000 26,000 29,000
3/: 1,200 3,500 1,100
oxrA : 1,000 2,500 10,000
: 2,300 4,000 800
Tek : 22,000 30,000 25,000
us 4/: 179,650 185,300 172,950

NATIVE & SEEDLING :
ALA : 11,250 4,000 8,000
ARK : 500 1,100 550
FLA : 2,400 2,600 2,100
GA : 15,000 15,000 14,000
LA t 16,500 17,500 11,000
MISS : 4,000 3,500 3,500
NC y: 800 2,000 900
OKLA A 11,000 44,500 2,000
sc : 1,100 2,500 400
TEX : 20,000 30,000 25,000
us 82,550 122,700 67,450

PECANS :
ALA : 25,000 10,000 20,000
ARK : 1,300 3,000 1,500
CALIF 2s: 2,000 1,700
FLA : 5,500 6,000 5,000
fA : 115,000 110,000 95,000

u BUDDED, GRAFTED, OR TOPWORKED VARIETIES. 2/ ESTIMATES BEGAN WITH THE 1988
CROP. 3/.’ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
4/ CALIF INCLUDED IN 1988 AND 1989.

PAPAYAS - HAWAII

1,000 POUNDS

5,435
4,815
5,200
4,600
+500
4,395 3,200
47,045
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICUL TURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-38 NASS, USDA


ALL HAY

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

1,000 ACRES

750 700
180 190
970 1,000
1,680 1,750
1,650 1,550

31 291 292 289
36 4,384 4,220 5,370
AT 7,800 6,960 6,180

650 600 -60 1,425 1,300 1,560
4,000 3,750 +84 6,178 5,160 6,915

2 2
7 7
1 2
5 4
2 2
2 2
2 2
2 3
2 2
3 3
2 3
1 3
2 2
2 2
1 2
2 2
1 2
2 3
2 2
1,900 1,600 2 3
1 2

2 2

1. 1

1,800 2,300 1.55 1.85 4,210 2,790 4,260

1 1

2 2

2 2

2 2

4 4

2 2

1 2

0 1

2 3

1 2

2 2

2 2

2 2

2 2

0 1

1 2

1 2

3 3

1 2

1 2

3 3

1 1

1 2

1 1

4,000 2,500

3,400 3,500 -80 6,865 6,510 6,300
510 520 -67 1,380 1,336 1,386

84 82 20 28 181 185 187
110 lil 33 +32 287 256 258
275 280 .28 31 1,341 1,177 1,208

2,160 2,100 29 44 5,269 4,940 5,114

450 510
2,800 2,950
1,625 1,450
2,310 2,180
1,065 1,100
2,040 2,000

8 8

240 235
4,100 4,300
1,600 1,740
3,200 3,700

620 620

405 395
1,200 1,170

800 770

620 600
3,750 3,600
1,140 1,190

06 726 797 1,050
“ll 4,795 2,010 3,270
.20 4,423 3,543 4,640
56 4,413 3,931 §,570
«74 3,014 2,775 3,018
75 5,198 4,716 5,502
-50 19 20 20
-60 450 504 611
-00 7,090 3,910 4,320
05 2,644 2,310 3,570
16 7,930 5,350 8,001
+28 2,243 2,138 2,034
-03 851 7 801
+22 2,147 2,220 2,595
58 2,698 2,833 2,753
92 994 876 1,152
86 8,880 4,925 10,310
+65 2,219 1,982 1,960

65,559 62,743 1.93 2.40 149,302 126,817 150,497
1/ INCLUDES SUBSTANTIAL ACREAGE OF SET ASIDE AND CONSERVATION RESERVE ACRES
THAT WERE RELEASED FOR HAYING AND HARVESTED FOR HAY DUE TO DROUGHT. 2/ ESTI-
MATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-26 NASS, USDA


SMALL GRAINS - ANNUAL SUMMARY
AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED, UNITED STATES
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP fnnnw ncn enennenn nnn nn eee coe cece ccesceeeeeneree een eenceseee
1987 1988 1/ 1989
ee 1,000 ACRES
OATS 13,927 12,082 6,928 «5,590 —«6, 827
BARLEY 9°871 97203 105057 77680 ©8322
ALL WHEAT 65,529 767550 555960 53,174 62,081
WINTER 48,800 555026 39,347 39,785 413401
DURUM 33336 3,791 «33279 «23847 «33673
OTH SPRING 133393 -177733.«-133334 = -107542 «173007
RYE 2,424 «23044 683 607 483
1/ REVISED.
YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES
(DOMESTIC UNITS}
PRODUCTION
CROP AND UNIT :-w=2-n----reesen nen n encore een ence eee een een ence nec eeceeces
1987 1988 1/: 1989
fs 1,000 BUSHELS
OATS BU 374,000 218,853 370,693
BARLEY " 529,530 293,524 _ 404,569
ALL WHEAT " 2,107,480 1,811,436 2,041,884
WINTER " 175653176 13561,145 12451;746
DURUM " 927617’ 447831 923899
OTH SPRING " 449,687 205,460 497,239
RYE " 197818 15,047 «13/610

1/_ REVISED.

FI III III IIIA IAAI II III IIS IAI IIIS ISIS IIS III IISA SSSI SII II ISS SSS SII IIIS SSSI II.

* The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with *
* related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data

* were prepared and adopted by the Agricultural Statistics Board which

* consists of commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington
* headquarters.

A. David Frank, Vaughn L. Siegenthaler,
Z ben Robert L. Freie, James L. Smith,
. Jeffrey K. Geuder, Larry E. Snipes,
Douglas A. Hasslen, Charles A. Van Lahr,
Carol C. House, Herbert L. Vanderberry,

John D. Witzig.
* ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

FRI IIIA IIA REI ISA IISA II II AISI SII ISS ASIII SII SII SASS SII IIIS SSSA IIIA.

*
* AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD:

* Donald M. Bay, Acting Chairperson,

t L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

* Rich Allen, Van B. Johnson,
* Lewis M. Bever, dames P. Kreber,
* Thomas R. Birkett, Thomas E. Kurtz,
* dames E. Brewster, Roger D. Latham,
* APPROVED: Arvin R. Budge, Monnie A. Miller,
* William N. Dowdy, James E. Ramey,
; Dennis S. Findley, Darwin E. Ransom,
*

*

*

*

*

ee es

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-2 NASS, USDA


Harvest is underway in Idaho. Acreage and yield are both up from a year
ago.

Outlook in Michigan deteriorated slightly. Cool weather did not prompt
the growth that had been expected. September rainfall was 1 to 2 inches below
normal.

SUGARCANE: Sugarcane production is forecast at 30.5 million tons, off 1

percent from the September 1 forecast but 2 percent more than
produced in 1988. Compared with last year, the larger production is the
result of increased acreage which is being partly offset by lower yields. An
average yield of 35.2 tons per acre is expected, down 0.20 of a ton from 1988.
Area for harvest, at 867 thousand acres, is 3 percent more than the area
harvested a year earlier.

Florida's ratoon cane has not done as well as expected. With the freeze
last winter and reduced rainfall earlier this year, growth is 5 to 6 inches
below average. However, it is now growing well, 3/4 to 1 inch daily, and my
catch up.

In Hawaii, September growing conditions were generally favorable on all
islands. Production of 7.18 million tons is expected. Both acreage and yield
are lower than a year ago.

Harvest for sugar has just begun in Louisiana. Planting of new cane is
nearing completion.

ORANGES: The first production forecast of U.S. all oranges for the 1989-90

season is 194 million boxes, 6 percent less than last season and 3
percent below the 1987-88 season. The forecast for all Florida oranges is 130
million boxes, 11 percent less than last season's crop and 6 percent below
1987-88. Production of Florida early and mid-season varieties, at 72.0
million boxes, is 16 percent less than last season and 8 percent under the
1987-88 crop. Florida Valencia production is expected to total 58.0 million
boxes, 5 percent less than last season's crop and 3 percent below 1987-88
production.

California's 1989-90 all orange crop forecast, at 61.0 million boxes, is
7 percent greater than last season and 3 percent above the 1987-88 season.
The Navel crop for California is expected to total 35.0 million boxes,
unchanged from last month but 3 percent greater than the 1988-89 crop and 11
percent above 1987-88. California's Valencia forecast, at 26.0 million boxes,
is 13 percent greater than last season's crop but 5 percent below the crop
harvested in 1987-88.

The Arizona all orange crop is expected to total 1.40 million boxes, 18
percent less than last season and 23 percent below the 1987-88 crop. The
Texas all orange crop is expected to total 1.95 million boxes, 5 percent above
last season and 36 percent greater than the 1987~88 crop.

The October 1 U.S. all orange production forecast has deviated from the
final production by an average of 23.6 million boxes over the past 10 seasons,
ranging from a low of 8.11 million boxes in 1985-86 to a high of 53.1 million
boxes in the 1983~84 season. The large difference between the October 1, 1983
forecast and the final production for the 1983-84 season was the result of the
late December 1983 freeze losses to the Florida and Texas citrus crops.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-12 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION
STATE IND
1988 : 1989
1,000 POUNDS
CONN 2,971 2,781
FLA 17,152 18,900
GA 85,880 90,000
IND 10,945 13,237
KY 355,024 407,680
MD 11,970 11,730
MASS 767 669
MO 1/ 4,410 5,280
NC 552,627 568,600
OHIO 497 17,
PA 18,175 17,925
Sc 100,125 110,000
TENN 93,142 98,167
VA 92,177 103,993
WVA 1/ 2,720 ,
WIS 7,080 9,360
us , ’ 2,122 1,190,674 1,369,662 1,478,122

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
SUGARBEETS 1/

25.0 26.5 6,091 5,300 5,088
22.8 22.0 803 880 880
24.6 25.0 4,277 4,084 4,425
16.5 19.5 2,911 2,393 2,984
14.2 16.0 6,200 4,743 5,440
21.1 21.0 1,086 1,032 1,094
21.2 19.0 1,102 1,319 1,203
42.9 a 9 af
14.7 15.5 3,161 2,580 2,713
15.9 16.0 69 234 266
26.7 28.9 422 376 434
21.9 22.0 621 723 792
20.3 20.0 1,127 1,137 1,224

29.4 53

19.1 20.1 28,072 24,810 26,596

1/__ RELATES 7 YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR SPRING PLANTED BEETS OVER-
WINTERED IN CALIF. 2/ INCLUDED IN OTHER STATES TO AVOID DISCLOSURE OF
INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONS. ty) INCLUDES NM AND WA,

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

AREA HARVESTED YIELD vy

1,000 TONS

427.0 31.6 32.0 13,469 13,304 13,664
84.0 90.6 85.5 83195 7,804 7,182
320:0 25.3 27.0 6,469 7,708 8,640
35.7 32.8 29.0 1,085 1,088 1,035,

866.7 35.4 35.2 29,218 29,904 30,521

1/_ NET TONS.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-34 NASS, USDA


On October 1, 65% of the cotton acres was opening bolls, 4 points behind
normal. Harvest was 12% complete, 8 points behind normal. Dry weather slowed
crop _develomment in the Delta and Southeast in early September. By mid-
September, the percentage opening bolls was 30 or more points behind normal
in Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, and North Carolina. Hurricane Hugo caused
same damage in the Carolinas. In_late September, cool, wet weather slowed
boll opening in the Plains area of Texas. Rain slowed defoliation and harvest
in central California late in the month.

On October 1, 62% of the sorghum acreage was mature, 8 points behind
normal. Harvest was 30% complete, 3 points behind normal. About mid-
September, frost and high winds damaged sorghum in central Nebraska. The last
week of September, frost caused some damage in portions of the central and
southern Great Plains.

Rice harvest was 65% complete, 7 points behind normal on October 1. First
crop harvest was complete in Texas and nearly complete in Louisiana. Harvest
lagged 27 points behind normal in Mississippi. Rain slowed harvest in
California in late September.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 7.45 billion
bushels, up 2 percent from last month and 51 percent above
the drought reduced crop of 1988.

The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at 114.4 bushels, up 2 bushels
from last month and 29.8 bushels above last year. Yields in the leading
States and bushel changes from last year are: Iowa 114, up 30; Illinois 122,
up 49; Nebraska 118, down 6; Minnesota 120, up 46; Indiana 130, up 47;
Ohio 115, up 30; and Wisconsin 111, up 44.

The crop is being harvested at a slower rate than normal due to the
lateness of the crop in some States. By October 1, 16 percent of the crop had
been harvested in the 19 major producing States compared with 34 percent last
year and the average of 22 percent.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION
1980 - 1989

BILLION BUSHELS
10

8.12 8.24 8.25

PE NNN 7.67 \| (\-7.06 oc TAB
‘gil idea

80 81 82 83 84 86 86 87 88 89

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-5 NASS, USDA



DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
: IND: : IND: : : IND
1988 : 1989 : 1988 : 1989 : 1987 : 1988 : 1989
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
LARGE LIMA:
CALIF H 28.0 29.0 2,040 2,050 435 571 595
BABY LIMA :
ovat : 29.0 31.0 2,270 2,300 485 658 713
PAU 93.0 110.0 1,790 1,850 2,218 1,665 2,035
CALIF 0 170.0 1,929 1,966 3,138 2,894 3,343
COLO 0 175.0 1,650 1,650 2,610 2,558 2,888
IDAHO .0 168.0 1,890 2,050 2,812 2,249 3,444
KANS 0 21.0 1,550 1,550 363 310 326
MICH 0 300.0 1,200 1,500 5,124 2,220 4,500
MINN 0 80.0 800 §=—:1,050 1,184 480 840
MONT 0 5.9 1,900 2,200 125 76 130
NEBR .0 210.0 1,950 1,700 3,507 3,764 3,570
N MEX 7) 14.0 2,200 2,000 212 209 280
NY -0 34.0 1,300 1,300 420 325 442
N_DAK 0 460.0 730 700 5,026 2,701 3,220
UTAH 5 4.8 580 480 47 26 23
WASH 0 43.0 2,060 2,100 746 742 903
WYO 0 45.0 1,930 1,800 595 676 810
US -O 1,730.7 1,408 1,428 25,909 19,230 24,719

1/__ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR
CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

LENTILS:

AREA PLANTED. =O AREA HARVESTED
STE =f : : IND

1988 1/ 1989 : 1988 Ys 1989

1,000 ACRES

ast / BA 38.0 i310 24:0

US : 72.0 86.0 71.0 84.0
ee YIELD ~~=~=~—~—~S~CS*S:~C<C«‘«*~*«éS*ROCTIONCS”
py pp : IND
1987: 1988 1/ : 1989
bons oo wt
IDAHO 630 299 393
WASH 1,164 595 648
Us 1,794 894 1,041
ly REVISED. tOTMS~Ss
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

OCTOBER 1989 A-29 NASS, USDA



ALL WHEAT; YIELD AND PRODUCTION

PRODUCTION
STATE p---- 22-2222 n ne nn eee nnn ee nen ene ene eee eens
1987: 1988 1/ > 1987 : 1988 1/ 1989
BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA 31.0 43.0 30.0 5,270 8, 600 6,600
ARIZ 89.9 90.9 90.9 8,005 7,730 10,722
ARK 41.0 53.0 44.0 34,440 56,710 49,720
CALIF 17.4 84.4 77.9 43,890 43,785 52,605
COLO 38.1 33.8 27.4 97,380 79,540 62,100
DEL 42.0 52.0 42.0 2,016 3,276 3,108
FLA 30.0 37.0 29.0 1,800 2,035 1,885
GA 31.0 43.0 32.0 14,260 21,500 22,400
IDAHO 75.0 65.7 68.4 85,500 75,520 93,660
ILL 59.0 54.0 59.0 56,050 67,500 105,020
IND 58.0 50.0 59.0 34,800 35,000 51,920
IOWA 38.0 35.0 47.0 1,140 1,225 3,290
KANS 37.0 34.0 24.0 366, 300 323,000 213,600
KY 49.0 54.0 50.0 16,170 20,520 22,500
LA 31.0 41.0 31.0 5,270 11,070 10,850
MD 49.0 53.0 40.0 8,085 9,010 8,600
MICH 48.0 42.0 53.0 19,200 26,040 33,920
MINN 40.7 23.0 38.0 102,588 51,730 102,504
MISS 36.0 46.0 34.0 12,600 20,700 15,300
MO : 46.0 50.0 47.0 35,420 77,500 86,950
MONT : 32.2 15.7 28.5 151,220 59,970 149, 100
NEBR: 44.0 36.0 27.0 85,800 72,000 55,350
NEV 80.0 70.5 80.0 1,680 1,340 1,200
NJ 45.0 45.0 39.0 1,215 1,395 1,365
N MEX 32.0 24.0 20.0 10,880 6,960 3,200
NY 47.0 55.0 45.0 3,760 4,950 5,850
NC 41.0 50.0 34.0 18,040 24,000 21,420
N DAK 29.5 14.3 23.5 269,120 103,390 242,320
OHIO 58.0 50.0 51.0 46,400 46,000 62,730
OKLA 27.0 36.0 27.0 129,600 172,800 153,900
OREG 65.3 68.6 58.5 52,920 51,800 52,935
PA 43.0 53.0 37.0 7,955 9,010 7,955
Sc 38.0 46.0 41.0 10,450 14,030 17,835
S$ DAK 30.2 14.4 23.6 106,704 38,006 83,080
TENN 41.0 50.0 42.0 14,350 21,500 18,900
TEX 28.0 28.0 20.0 100,800 89,600 60,000
UTAH 45.0 38.2 33.6 8,963 6,768 5,950
VA 45.0 52.0 46.0 9,675 10,400 12,650
WASH 56.7 60.5 50.2 114,285 124,620 113,850
W VA 45.0 46.0 43.0 495 414 516
WIS 47.3 38.7 51.8 4,164 5,152 9,320
wyo 30.6 22.4 23.5 8,820 5,340 5,204
US : 37.7 34.1 32.9 2,107,480 1,811,436 2,041,884
1/_ REVISED. .

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

OCTOBER 1989 A-13 NASS, USDA


FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1989-90 forecast of all Frozen

Concentrated Orange Juice for
Florida is 1.48 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast is
projected to estimate the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus
Processors Association. The 1988-89 yield for all fruit used in FCOU was 1.53
gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects for the 1989-90 season, including California's "Desert"
grapefruit but excluding California's "Other Areas" grapefruit,
indicate a crop of 54.2 million boxes, 17 percent below the previous season
and 15 percent less than the 1987-88 season. ‘The California "Other Areas"
grapefruit crop, which will be forecast as of April 1, 1990, accounted for
5.00 million boxes harvested last season and 4.90 million boxes in 1987-88.

Florida's grapefruit forecast is 44.0 million boxes, 20 percent below last
season and 18 percent less than the 1987-88 crop. The Florida white seedless
grapefruit forecast is 22.5 million boxes, down 19 percent from last season;
colored seedless is 18.5 million boxes, down 22 percent; and seedy grapefruit
at 3.00 million boxes is 10 percent less than 1988-89.

The California Desert grapefruit forecast is 3.70 million boxes, up 6
percent from last season. Arizona's grapefruit crop is forecast at 2.10
million boxes, 8 percent above last year. The Texas grapefruit forecast is
4.40 million boxes, down 8 percent from the previous season.

LEMONS: The Arizona-California lemon crop (tree crop available for harvest)

is expected to total 19.7 million boxes, 1 percent below last season
and 5 percent less than the crop utilized in 1987-88. California expects a
crop of 16.5 million boxes, 2 percent more than last season. The Arizona crop
is forecast at 3.20 million boxes, 16 percent less than 1988-89. Harvest is
underway in both States.

TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop forecast is 3.50 million boxes, down 8
percent from last season and 17 percent less than the 1987-88 crop.

TEMPLES: Florida's temple forecast is 3.00 million boxes, 20 percent below
last season's production and 15 percent less than 1987-88.

TANGERINES: The U.S. all tangerine forecast is 4.65 million boxes. ‘This

forecast includes the Dancy, Robinson, Honey, and Sunburst
varieties of tangerines in Florida, as well as production of California and
Arizona tangerines. Florida Sunburst tangerines, beginning this year, are
included in the State amd U.S. totals. Production estimates sham for
previous seasons do not include this new variety tangerine.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Most of this State's groves were in excellent condition

during September. Rainfall was above average but generally
not excessive. Many of the lakes, ponds, and streams are now at the highest
levels in more than a year. The wamn weather and plentiful moisture provided
near ideal growing conditions. New fruit crop harvest increased during
September as many early bloom crops were passing maturity tests with ease.
By the end of the month, there were considerable volumes of colored and white
grapefruit being packed for fresh usage. Increasing mmbers of navels, Hamlin
oranges, and Robinson tangerines are being picked at this time. Caretakers
have been busy controlling cover crops, spraying, fertilizing, and applying
herbicides to ready groves for the up-coming winter season.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-13 NASS, USDA



Idaho growers indicated that isolated hail storms and rains have caused
some deterioration of fruit quality. Harvest is nearing completion.

Michigan production increased from last year's drought reduced crop.
Quality and fruit size were generally good. Harvest is complete in Michigan
and Washington.

APPLES: The final forecast of the 1989 apple crop places production at 9.63
billion pounds, down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast of 9.73
billion pounds but 5 percent more than last year's production.

The Eastern States expect 2.52 billion pounds, down 4 percent from August
1 and 15 percent less than 1988. With the exception of Vermont and New York,
poor pollination and set combined with disease problems have reduced
production prospects from Pennsylvania to Maine. Picking was active in New
York where weather conditions have been good for harvest. Hurricane Hugo took
its toll on the Virginia and North Carolina crops further reducing expected
production. High winds and low precipitation led to a higher than normal drop
in West Virginia.

Prospects in the Central States are forecast at 1.48 billion pounds, down
slightly from the August 1 forecast but 20 percent more than the drought
reduced 1988 crop. The Indiana crop was in good condition. Cool temperatures
aided ripening. Harvest of the Michigan crop is expected to continue through
October. It has generally been a good growing season and a good quality crop
is expected to be picked. The Ohio crop was late developing. Wisconsin's
crop was variable this year depending on the amount of rain received.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 5.62 billion pounds, down
slightly from August 1 but 14 percent more than last year's crop. Picking of
a good quality crop continued in California. The Colorado crop has done well
after a late freeze. Washington growers expect an excellent crop this year.
High temperatures in late September slowed coloring in some red varieties and
caused some sunburn. Some orchards have picked-out lighter than expected.

FILBERTS (HAZELNUTS): Oregon and Washington filbert (hazelnut) growers are

expecting to harvest a 13.5 thousand ton crop in 1989.
Harvest is in full swing. Production has varied greatly between areas. Nut
size and quality are good. Harvest conditions have been good.

PECANS: The October 1 forecast for the pecan crop in the 12 estimating States
is 240 million pounds, in-shell basis, 22 percent below last year's
production and 8 percent less than the 1987 crop.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 B-15 NASS, USDA


DURUM WHEAT

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

STATE pe--cenec ence erences cee eee teen ene eee cee ee ee ec eneeeeseeeeneeneese
1988 1/ 1989 1987 1988 1/ 1989
1,000 ACRES

ARIZ: 46 51 85 45 50 84
CALIF : 60 60 106 57 59 105
MINN =: 30 45 30 29 40 23
MONT =: 195 280 340 190 230 335
N DAK : 2,900 2,800 3,100 2,850 2,400 3,000
S DAK : 110 100 130 108 68 120
US: 3,341 3,336 3,791 3,279 2,847 3,673

4TELD : PRODUCTION

1987: 1988 1/ : 1987: ~«:1988 1/.:~—«1989
“BUSHELS : 1,000 BUSHELS

ARIZ: 85.0 86.

Q 90.0 3,825 4,300 7,560
CALIF : 90.0 95.0 83.0 5,130 5,605 8,715
MINN 2 42.0 21.0 36.0 1,218 840 1,044
MONT : 28.0 9.0 20.0 5,320 2,070 6,700
N DAK : 26.0 13.0 22.0 74,100 31,200 66,000
S DAK : 28.0 12.0 24.0 3,024 816 2,880
US 28.2 15.7 25.3 92,617 44,831 92,899

WINTER + SPRING
YEAR : HARD + SOFT : + HARD: 3
: RED > RED : WHITE : RED : DURUM:

1,000 BUSHELS

1987: 1,020,772 347,742 196,662 430,578 92,617 19,109 2,107,480
1988 =: 880,257 473,695 207,193 181,202 44,831 24,258 1,811,436
1989 1/: 721,135 545,395 185,216 443,067 92,899 54,172 2,041,884
1/ WHEAT CLASS ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON VARIETY ACREAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED AT
5-YEAR INTERVALS FOR ALL WHEAT PRODUCING STATES. THE 5-YEAR VARIETAL SURVEY
DATA ARE ADJUSTED AS OTHER VARIETY SURVEY INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1989 A-16 NASS, USDA