Cr Pr 2-2 (6-07)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released June 11, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Winter Wheat Production Down Slightly from May

All Orange Production Unchanged

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.61 billion bushels, down slightly from the May 1 forecast but

24 percent above 2006. Based on June 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 43.2 bushels per acre, down

0.3 bushel from last month but 1.5 bushels more than last year. Grain area totals 37.2 million acres, up

fractionally from May 1.

Hard Red production is up slightly from a month ago to 1.03 billion bushels. Soft Red is down 2 percent

from last month and now totals 341 million bushels. White production totals 237 million bushels,

down 1 percent from last month. Of the White production total, 18.9 million bushels are Hard White

and 218 million bushels are Soft White.

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 7.36 million tons, unchanged from the May 1 forecast

but 18 percent below last season’s final utilization of 9.00 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at

131 million boxes (5.88 million tons), is unchanged from last month but 12 percent lower than the utilization

from the 2005-06 season’s crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 65.6 million

boxes (2.95 million tons), down 13 percent from last season’s final utilization. Harvest of the early,

midseason, and navel varieties is complete. Florida’s Valencia forecast is 65.0 million boxes (2.93 million

tons), unchanged from the May forecast but down 11 percent from last season’s final utilization. The row

count survey conducted May 30-31 showed that 90 percent of Valencia rows had been harvested. Arizona,

California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from April 1.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season remains at a record high

1.65 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from the 2005-06 season’s yield of 1.63 gallons. Final yield

from the early-midseason portion is unchanged from last month at 1.56 gallons, up from 1.53 gallons last

season. Valencias are projected to yield a record high 1.78 gallons, unchanged from last month but up from

the yield of 1.75 gallons for the 2005-06 crop. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships

this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on June 11, 2007.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Keith J. Collins

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Carol C. House
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Grains & Hay

Wheat, by Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Wheat, Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Wheat, Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Apricots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Cherries, Sweet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Peaches ...........................................................................6

Pears . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Prunes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Maple Syrup . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Citrus Fruits 

Grapefruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Lemons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Tangelos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Tangerines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops

Sweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Hops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 4 NASS, USDA

Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

May 1 Jun 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AR

CA

CO

DE

GA

ID

IL

IN

KS

KY

MD

MI

MS

MO

MT

NE

NY

NC

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

305

250

1,900

45

120

710

910

460

9,100

320

125

650

73

910

1,920

1,700

95

420

960

3,400

730

150

123

1,150

190

1,400

155

1,800

230

816

31,117

600

300

2,100

55

250

740

810

410

9,500

190

175

650

300

800

2,150

1,850

77

460

760

4,600

740

150

135

1,800

230

3,900

175

1,810

260

1,245

37,222

61.0

58.0

21.0

67.0

49.0

77.0

67.0

69.0

32.0

71.0

68.0

73.0

59.0

54.0

43.0

36.0

61.0

59.0

68.0

24.0

53.0

59.0

50.0

36.0

64.0

24.0

68.0

66.0

78.0

44.3

41.7

46.0

70.0

35.0

73.0

40.0

81.0

55.0

63.0

38.0

38.0

66.0

71.0

59.0

42.0

41.0

41.0

54.0

42.0

64.0

35.0

60.0

55.0

35.0

44.0

32.0

34.0

61.0

66.0

70.0

41.8

43.5

42.0

74.0

37.0

68.0

40.0

81.0

55.0

59.0

38.0

38.0

66.0

71.0

59.0

42.0

42.0

42.0

52.0

38.0

64.0

33.0

55.0

54.0

30.0

44.0

32.0

35.0

61.0

66.0

65.0

41.8

43.2

18,605

14,500

39,900

3,015

5,880

54,670

60,970

31,740

291,200

22,720

8,500

47,450

4,307

49,140

82,560

61,200

5,795

24,780

65,280

81,600

38,690

8,850

6,150

41,400

12,160

33,600

10,540

118,800

17,940

36,139

1,298,081

25,200

22,200

77,700

3,740

10,000

59,940

44,550

24,190

361,000

7,220

11,550

46,150

17,700

33,600

90,300

77,700

4,004

17,480

48,640

151,800

40,700

8,100

4,050

79,200

7,360

136,500

10,675

119,460

16,900

52,070

1,609,679

 1 Other States include AL, AZ, FL, IA, LA, MN, NV, NJ, NM, ND, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be

published in the “Small Grains 2007 Summary.”
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 5 NASS, USDA

Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 1

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2006 2007 2006

2007

2006 2007

May 1 Jun 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AZ

CA

MT

ND

Oth

 Sts 2

US

74

65

395

1,260

21

1,815

80

90

100.0

99.0

17.0

25.0

67.9

29.5

100.0

95.0

100.0

95.0

7,400

6,435

6,715

31,500

1,425

53,475

8,000

8,550

 1 Area harvested for the U.S. and remaining States will be published in “Acreage” released June 29, 2007. Yield and production

will be published in “Crop Production” released July 12, 2007. 2 Other States include ID and SD. Individual State level estimates will be published in the “Small Grains 2007 Summary.”

Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 2005-2006

and Forecasted June 1, 2007 1 2

Year

Winter

Hard

Red

Soft

Red

Hard

White

Soft

White

All

White

1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

 2005

 2006

 2007

929,820

682,079

1,031,745

309,021

390,165

340,525

25,279

13,284

18,937

235,009

212,553

218,472

260,288

225,837

237,409

Spring

Hard Total

Red

Hard

White

Soft

White

All

White Durum

1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

 2005

 2006

 2007

466,587

432,339

4,530

6,226

33,339

21,915

37,869

28,141

101,105

53,475

2,104,690

1,812,036

 1 Wheat class estimates are based on the latest available data including both survey and administrative data. The previous

end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season for States that do not have survey or

administrative data available. 2 Spring wheat production by class and total production will be published in “Crop Production” released July 12, 2007.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 6 NASS, USDA

Sweet Cherries: Total Production by State, and Total,

2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007

State

Total Production

2005 2006 2007 1

Tons Tons Tons

 CA

 OR

 WA

 Total

52,700

28,600

137,000

218,300

42,100

50,000

171,000

263,100

92,000

40,000

155,000

287,000

 1 The first production forecast for sweet cherries in ID, MI, NY, and UT and tart cherries in MI, NY, OR, PA, UT, WA, and WI

will be published in the “Cherry Production” report released on June 21, 2007. The first estimate for 2007 sweet cherries in MT

will be released in January 2008.

Peaches: Total Production by Crop, State, and Total,

2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007

State

Total Production

2005 2006 2007

Tons Tons Tons

CA

 All

 Clingstone 1

 Freestone

GA

SC

Total

869,000

484,000

385,000

40,000

75,000

984,000

712,000

359,000

353,000

41,000

60,000

813,000

840,000

450,000

390,000

17,000

8,000

865,000

 1 CA Clingstone is over-the-scale tonnage and includes culls and cannery diversions.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 7 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early, Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 5

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples 5

 FL

Grapefruit

 White

 FL

 Colored

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

240

44,000

79,100

1,500

124,840

190

20,500

70,700

270

91,660

430

64,500

149,800

1,770

216,500

650

3,400

9,400

140

6,100

12,800

6,600

25,640

400

2,900

4,450

7,750

2,400

20,500

22,900

1,550

250

47,000

75,000

1,400

123,650

200

13,500

72,700

200

86,600

450

60,500

147,700

1,600

210,250

700

6,500

12,800

100

6,000

19,300

5,200

30,600

550

3,600

5,500

9,650

3,800

21,000

24,800

1,400

200

27,000

65,600

1,580

94,380

150

10,000

65,000

270

75,420

350

37,000

130,600

1,850

169,800

9,300

17,900

100

4,800

27,200

6,500

38,600

300

2,600

4,600

7,500

2,500

16,500

19,000

1,250

9

1,650

3,560

64

5,283

7

769

3,182

11

3,969

16

2,419

6,742

75

9,252

29

145

400

5

204

545

264

1,018

15

109

211

335

91

779

870

70

9

1,763

3,375

60

5,207

8

506

3,272

9

3,795

17

2,269

6,647

69

9,002

32

276

544

3

201

820

208

1,232

21

135

261

417

144

798

942

63

8

1,013

2,952

67

4,040

6

375

2,925

11

3,317

14

1,388

5,877

78

7,357

395

761

3

161

1,156

260

1,580

11

98

219

328

95

627

722

56

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90;

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities

of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 8 NASS, USDA

Bartlett Pears: Total Production by State and Total,

2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007

State

Total Production

2005 2006 2007

Tons Tons Tons

CA

OR

WA

Total

166,000

58,000

167,000

391,000

199,000

60,000

167,000

426,000

210,000

65,000

160,000

435,000

Miscellaneous Fruits, California: Total Production by Crop,

2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007

Crop

Total Production

2005 2006 2007

Tons Tons Tons

Prunes (Dried Basis)

Apricots

97,000

75,500

180,000

39,000

95,000

90,000

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2006 2007

2006 2007 2006 2007

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Apr

May

2,050

2,025

1,930

1,940

1,785

1,760

860

870

1,725

1,785

2,230

2,100

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 9 NASS, USDA

Hops: Area Harvested by Variety, State, and United States,

2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007

State

and

Variety

Area Harvested Strung for Harvest

2005 2006 1 2007

Acres Acres Acres

ID

 Total 2

OR

 Cascade

 Glacier

 Golding

 Millenium

 Mt. Hood

 Nugget

 Sterling

 Willamette

 Other Varieties

 Total

WA

 Ahtanum

 Cascade

 Centennial

 Chelan

 Chinook

 Cluster

 Columbus/Tomahawk R

 Galena

 Glacier

 Golding

 Hallertauer

 Millenium

 Mt. Hood

 Nugget

 Sterling

 Summit R

 Vanguard

 Willamette

 YCR-4(Palisade R)

 YCR-5(Warrior R)

 Zeus

 Other Varieties

 Total

 US

3,287

62

231

105

295

219

1,363

276

2,273

339

5,163

50

1,168

112

212

489

463

2,812

3,869

48

37

48

1,115

51

1,062

93

 *

 *

4,102

54

584

3,736

908

21,013

29,463

2,797

 *

 -

117

293

161

1,590

123

2,301

451

5,036

40

1,116

 *

505

365

352

2,772

3,809

17

53

49

910

44

1,100

62

66

 *

4,554

54

421

3,982

1,261

21,532

29,365

3,106

 *

 -

115

294

164

1,649

95

2,370

490

5,177

42

1,303

 *

505

311

366

3,305

3,061

21

52

56

732

44

1,093

 *

632

64

4,562

74

338

4,659

1,529

22,749

31,032

 1 Revised. 2 Only State totals are published for Idaho to avoid disclosure of individual operations.

* Included in Other Varieties to avoid disclosure of individual operations.

- Zero or unknown.

R Registered.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 10 NASS, USDA

Sugarbeets: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, Production,

Price, and Value by State and United States, 2005-2006 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield

2005 2006 2 2005 2006 2 2005 2006 2

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons

CA

CO

ID

MI

MN

MT

NE

ND

OR

WA

WY

US

44.4

36.4

169.0

154.0

491.0

53.9

48.4

255.0

9.8

1.7

36.2

1,299.8

43.3

42.1

188.0

155.0

504.0

53.6

61.3

261.0

13.1

2.0

42.8

1,366.2

44.1

34.3

167.0

152.0

460.0

49.9

45.3

243.0

9.7

1.7

35.9

1,242.9

43.1

38.0

187.0

154.0

477.0

48.5

57.8

243.0

13.1

2.0

40.1

1,303.6

37.1

24.3

27.1

21.3

20.4

22.9

20.4

18.8

32.1

40.6

22.3

22.1

36.1

23.4

31.7

23.2

24.9

27.0

23.3

26.0

30.1

37.0

19.9

26.1

Production Price per Ton Value of Production

2005 2006 2 2005 2006 3 2005 2006 3

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons Dollars Dollars 1,000 Dollars 1,000 Dollars

CA

CO

ID

MI

MN

MT

NE

ND

OR

WA

WY

US

1,636

833

4,526

3,238

9,384

1,143

924

4,568

311

69

801

27,433

1,556

889

5,928

3,573

11,877

1,310

1,347

6,318

394

74

798

34,064

41.80

40.70

44.40

34.40

43.80

45.30

43.10

49.20

44.40

44.40

42.80

43.50

68,385

33,903

200,954

111,387

411,019

51,778

39,824

224,746

13,808

3,064

34,283

1,193,151

 1 Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in

central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. 2 Revised. 3 Estimates are not available. U.S. marketing year average price, value of production, and parity price will be published in

“Agricultural Prices” released July 31, 2007. State estimates will be published in “Crop Values” to be released February 2008.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 11 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Price,

and Value by State and United States, 2005-2006

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2005 2006 2 2005 2006 2 2005 2006 2

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

376.0

21.7

420.0

40.5

858.2

25.0

1.8

35.0

1.9

63.7

401.0

23.5

455.0

42.4

921.9

382.0

20.4

405.0

39.2

846.6

18.0

2.0

30.0

1.5

51.5

400.0

22.4

435.0

40.7

898.1

31.4

80.8

22.9

38.3

28.8

37.6

34.8

22.9

38.3

29.5

31.8

77.3

22.9

38.3

28.9

35.8

79.1

27.3

41.2

33.0

37.2

33.3

27.3

41.0

31.4

35.9

75.0

27.3

41.2

32.9

11,806

1,753

9,618

1,551

24,728

940

63

802

73

1,878

12,746

1,816

10,420

1,624

26,606

13,676

1,614

11,057

1,615

27,962

670

67

819

62

1,618

14,346

1,681

11,876

1,677

29,580

For Sugar For Sugar and Seed

Price per Ton Value of Production Value of Production 3

2005 2006 4 2005 2006 4 2005 2006 4

Dollars Dollars 1,000 Dollars 1,000 Dollars 1,000 Dollars 1,000 Dollars

FL

HI

LA

TX

US

28.00

33.60

27.10

33.40

28.40

330,568

58,901

260,648

51,803

701,920

356,888

61,018

282,382

54,241

754,529

 1 Yield and production refer to net weight. 2 Revised. 3 Price per ton of cane for sugar used in evaluating value of production for seed. 4 Estimates are not available. U.S. marketing year average price, value of production, and parity price will be published in

“Agricultural Prices” released July 31, 2007. State estimates will be published in “Crop Values” to be released February 2008.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 12 NASS, USDA

Maple Syrup: Taps, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2005-2007

State Number of Taps Yield per Tap Production

2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007

1,000 Taps 1,000 Taps 1,000 Taps Gallons Gallons Gallons 1,000 Gallons 1,000 Gallons 1,000 Gallons

CT

ME

MA

MI

NH

NY

OH

PA

VT

WI

US

63

1,300

240

390

365

1,420

355

428

2,140

400

7,101

61

1,315

245

375

355

1,530

360

449

2,170

400

7,260

59

1,310

230

400

365

1,470

370

445

2,170

460

7,279

0.159

0.204

0.167

0.149

0.156

0.156

0.194

0.143

0.192

0.125

0.175

0.164

0.228

0.163

0.208

0.180

0.165

0.217

0.147

0.212

0.250

0.200

0.136

0.172

0.130

0.150

0.164

0.152

0.203

0.115

0.207

0.163

0.173

10

265

40

58

57

222

69

61

410

50

1,242

10

300

40

78

64

253

78

66

460

100

1,449

8

225

30

60

60

224

75

51

450

75

1,258

Maple Syrup: Price and Value

by State and United States, 2005-2007 1

State

Average Price

per Gallon

Value of

Production

2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007

Dollars Dollars Dollars 1,000 Dollars 1,000 Dollars 1,000 Dollars

CT

ME

MA

MI

NH

NY

OH

PA

VT

WI

US

50.00

21.50

51.20

36.00

41.30

31.70

36.00

31.50

27.80

32.40

29.90

58.20

24.30

47.90

37.00

43.90

31.70

34.00

32.50

30.20

31.20

31.30

500

5,698

2,048

2,088

2,354

7,037

2,484

1,922

11,398

1,620

37,149

582

7,290

1,916

2,886

2,810

8,020

2,652

2,145

13,892

3,120

45,313

 1 Price and value for 2007 will be published in “Crop Production” released June 2008.

Maple Syrup: Season by State, 2005-2007

State

Date Season

Opened 1

Date Season

Closed 2

Average Season

Length 3

2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007

Date Date Date Date Days Days

CT

ME

MA

MI

NH

NY

OH

PA

VT

WI

US

Feb 2

Feb 14

Feb 2

Feb 1

Feb 1

Jan 27

Feb 1

Jan 20

Feb 4

Feb 12

Jan 15

Jan 20

Jan 25

Jan 1

Jan 30

Jan 14

Jan 15

Jan 1

Jan 15

Feb 20

Feb 5

Feb 20

Feb 20

Feb 19

Feb 15

Jan 5

Jan 31

Jan 7

Feb 15

Feb 15

Apr 15

Apr 29

Apr 19

Apr 28

Apr 23

May 1

Apr 18

Apr 30

Apr 30

Apr 21

Apr 14

Apr 26

Apr 30

May 2

Apr 29

Apr 27

Apr 18

Apr 29

Apr 30

Apr 29

Apr 24

May 7

May 2

Apr 23

Apr 24

May 3

Apr 20

May 1

Apr 30

Apr 29

34

23

21

16

21

23

27

28

24

18

24

36

27

28

21

26

27

28

32

29

23

28

29

33

30

20

32

29

20

22

31

26

27

 1 Approximately the first day that sap was collected. 2 Approximately the last day that sap was collected. 3 The average number of days that sap was collected.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 13 NASS, USDA

Maple Syrup: Price by Type of Sales and Size of Container

by State, 2005-2006 1

Type

and

State

Gallons 1/2 Gallons Quarts Pints 1/2 Pints

2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006

Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars

Retail

 CT

 ME

 MA

 MI

 NH

 NY

 OH

 PA

 VT

 WI

Wholesale

 CT

 ME

 MA

 MI

 NH

 NY

 OH

 PA

 VT

 WI

39.30

35.00

37.50

34.20

36.60

32.50

31.20

29.30

32.30

30.60

34.10

30.00

30.10

29.00

30.00

26.50

26.20

27.50

27.60

33.00

44.00

39.80

38.10

34.10

37.70

32.90

31.50

30.80

34.40

31.60

35.00

31.30

28.40

26.60

29.70

27.70

25.10

29.00

27.80

32.50

23.00

19.70

22.10

18.90

21.10

18.80

18.40

18.00

19.60

16.80

17.00

15.90

16.80

16.40

17.10

16.10

16.50

15.60

16.70

17.10

25.30

20.20

21.90

18.30

21.20

19.10

19.00

19.00

20.80

17.60

18.10

15.90

16.00

17.30

17.70

16.30

15.40

16.70

17.20

16.40

13.30

11.10

13.10

10.30

12.10

11.10

10.70

10.60

11.60

9.10

10.30

8.50

9.60

8.60

9.90

8.80

8.50

8.60

9.50

9.10

14.60

11.00

13.30

10.90

12.20

11.40

11.10

11.20

13.00

9.10

12.80

8.60

10.40

9.10

9.60

8.70

8.90

8.95

9.90

8.85

8.20

6.80

8.80

6.50

7.30

6.90

6.60

6.10

7.40

5.70

5.30

4.80

5.50

4.60

5.70

5.20

5.80

4.70

5.40

5.30

9.10

6.40

9.30

6.50

7.50

7.00

6.70

6.75

8.20

5.80

8.30

4.90

6.00

5.30

5.70

5.40

5.50

5.20

5.80

5.05

4.70

4.00

5.50

4.20

4.70

4.40

4.50

4.30

4.90

4.20

4.00

4.00

3.60

3.50

3.30

3.20

3.80

3.90

3.40

3.00

5.60

4.50

6.20

4.50

4.90

4.40

4.50

3.65

5.20

4.25

4.60

3.10

3.80

3.10

3.50

3.60

3.60

3.50

3.60

3.30

Bulk All Grades Bulk All Grades All Sales

2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006

Dollars per Pound Dollars per Pound Dollars per Gallon Dollars per Gallon Equivalent per Gallon Equivalent per Gallon

Bulk

 CT 2

 ME

 MA

 MI

 NH

 NY

 OH

 PA

 VT

 WI

1.90

1.65

1.80

1.60

1.70

2.00

1.60

1.70

1.70

1.85

1.95

1.80

1.80

1.85

1.80

1.85

1.60

1.85

1.80

20.70

18.10

19.30

17.50

18.90

21.60

17.90

18.70

19.20

20.40

21.50

19.80

20.00

20.40

19.90

20.30

17.40

20.40

19.80

50.00

21.50

51.20

36.00

41.30

31.70

36.00

31.50

27.80

32.40

58.20

24.30

47.90

37.00

43.90

31.70

34.00

32.50

30.20

31.20

 1 Prices for 2007 will be published in “Crop Production” released June 2008. 2 Data not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.

Maple Syrup: Percent of Sales by Type and State, 2005-2006

State

Retail Wholesale Bulk

2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent

CT

ME

MA

MI

NH

NY

OH

PA

VT

WI

80

2

65

48

65

45

63

56

30

42

75

6

55

43

70

40

65

57

30

30

10

1

20

28

20

22

17

16

10

23

15

2

30

37

15

20

19

20

10

35

10

97

15

24

15

33

20

28

60

35

10

92

15

20

15

40

16

23

60

35
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 14 NASS, USDA

Sweet Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield,

and Production by State and United States, 2005-2006

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2005 2006 1 2005 2006 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

AL

CA

LA

MS

NJ

NC

SC

TX

VA

US

2.7

11.7

18.0

17.4

1.2

36.0

0.9

2.7

0.4

91.0

2.4

12.2

18.0

18.0

1.2

40.0

0.7

2.2

0.5

95.2

2.5

11.7

17.0

17.3

1.2

35.0

0.8

2.6

0.3

88.4

2.3

12.2

13.5

15.5

1.2

39.0

0.6

2.1

0.4

86.8

Yield Production

2005 2006 1 2005 2006 1

Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

AL

CA

LA

MS

NJ

NC

SC

TX

VA

US

150

285

145

180

130

170

160

65

125

178

160

305

165

160

135

180

140

65

120

187

375

3,335

2,465

3,114

156

5,950

128

169

38

15,730

368

3,721

2,228

2,480

162

7,020

84

137

48

16,248

 1 Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 15 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

3,452.0

78,327.0

4,168.0

580.0

2,838.0

1,396.0

6,522.0

57,344.0

40,575.0

1,870.0

14,899.0

1,044.0

813.0

40.5

1,243.0

1.4

189.0

75,522.0

1,950.0

15,274.0

14,948.0

326.0

1,366.2

46.0

1,629.8

925.5

429.0

1,134.7

17.7

70.7

58.4

987.9

95.2

3,703.0

90,454.0

4,029.0

2,644.0

7,109.0

60,303.0

44,505.0

1,990.0

13,808.0

1,168.0

390.0

1,197.0

67,140.0

1,799.0

12,147.0

11,855.0

292.0

1,294.7

37.0

1,504.5

902.0

340.0

11.5

73.0

92.9

2,951.0

70,648.0

6,477.0

60,807.0

21,384.0

39,423.0

1,576.0

475.0

2,821.0

274.0

4,937.0

347.0

46,810.0

31,117.0

1,815.0

13,878.0

1,021.0

767.0

39.2

1,209.0

1.0

179.0

74,602.0

1,770.0

12,731.5

12,408.0

323.5

1,303.6

898.1

338.9

22.5

1,537.6

884.1

407.0

6.3

0.1

29.4

79.2

1,115.5

17.5

67.5

54.3

976.2

18.5

86.8

0.4

63,056.0

37,222.0

344.2

31.0

11.5

70.4

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Acreage is not estimated. 4 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 16 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

“

Tons

“

“

“

Bu

“

Cwt

Bu

“

Tons

Bu

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Bu

Lbs

“

“

“

Bu

Lbs

Bales

“

“

Tons

“

Lbs

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

Cwt

Lbs

61.0

149.1

16.2

2.33

3.35

1.78

59.5

21.5

6,868

26.3

56.2

13.4

38.7

41.7

29.5

33.2

1,366

14.4

720

2,874

1,100

1,069

42.7

1,211

814

806

1,136

26.1

32.9

2,144

1,151

1,577

1,493

797

1,160

43,000

1,964

92

390

257

293

338

402

110

187

43.2

215

294

180,051

10,534,868

104,849

141,666

71,666

70,000

93,764

10,195

193,736

7,193

277,538

4,642

1,812,036

1,298,081

53,475

460,480

1,394,332

7,347.9

11,019

28,220

3,474,450

1,100

191,405

3,188,247

2,143,613

21,587.8

20,822.4

765.4

34,064

29,580

726,644

259

24,247

13,203

3,244

590

7,300

4,300

57,686.7

7,248

434,589

4,495

19,766

18,350

391,978

2,038

16,248

4,500

1,609,679

2,473

20,668

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 17 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Production

2005 2006 2007

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Tons

“

“

“

“

“

1,000 Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

“

Lbs

Tons

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

Gals

1,018

870

9,252

70

335

29

9,719.9

81.7

20,900.0

7,813.7

142.0

32,900.0

1,184.6

823.3

97.0

9.1

915,000

27.6

280,250

355.0

1,242

1,232

942

9,002

63

417

32

10,072.1

44.7

20,000.0

6,346.3

23.5

28,700.0

1,010.1

841.0

180.0

21.3

1,115,000

41.0

188,900

350.0

1,449

1,580

722

7,357

56

328

95.0

1,310,000

1,258

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 18 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 5

1,396,990

31,698,150

1,686,750

234,720

1,148,510

564,950

2,639,390

23,206,540

16,420,300

756,770

6,029,480

422,500

329,010

16,390

503,030

570

76,490

30,563,000

789,150

6,181,240

6,049,310

131,930

552,890

18,620

659,560

374,540

173,610

459,200

7,160

28,610

23,630

399,790

38,530

1,498,570

36,605,830

1,630,500

1,070,000

2,876,940

24,404,020

18,010,730

805,330

5,587,960

472,680

157,830

484,410

27,170,890

728,040

4,915,770

4,797,600

118,170

523,950

14,970

608,860

365,030

137,590

4,650

29,540

37,600

1,194,240

28,590,540

2,621,180

24,607,980

8,653,890

15,954,090

637,790

192,230

1,141,630

110,890

1,997,950

140,430

18,943,540

12,592,740

734,510

5,616,290

413,190

310,400

15,860

489,270

400

72,440

30,190,680

716,300

5,152,310

5,021,390

130,920

527,550

363,450

137,150

9,110

622,250

357,790

164,710

2,550

40

11,880

32,050

451,430

7,080

27,320

21,970

395,060

7,490

35,130

150

25,518,130

15,063,370

139,280

12,560

4,650

28,490

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Acreage is not estimated. 5 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 19 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.28

9.36

36.29

5.22

7.51

3.98

2.13

1.20

7.70

1.65

3.53

29.99

2.60

2.81

1.98

2.23

1.53

0.90

0.81

3.22

1.23

1.20

2.87

1.36

0.91

0.90

1.27

58.58

73.83

2.40

1.29

1.77

1.67

0.89

1.30

48.20

2.20

0.10

43.67

28.79

32.82

37.88

45.01

0.12

20.98

2.91

24.10

32.91

3,920,150

267,597,970

95,117,410

128,517,230

65,014,300

63,502,930

1,360,980

231,220

8,787,720

182,710

7,049,790

4,211,150

49,315,540

35,327,980

1,455,350

12,532,210

632,460

6,665,900

279,900

12,800

1,575,980

500

86,820

86,769,860

972,330

4,700,190

4,533,540

166,650

30,902,340

26,834,520

329,600

11,750

1,099,830

598,880

147,150

26,760

3,310

1,950

26,170

3,290

19,712,630

203,890

896,570

832,340

17,779,820

920

737,000

2,040

43,808,280

112,170

937,480

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 20 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2005 2006 2007

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

923,510

789,250

8,393,270

63,500

303,910

26,310

4,408,870

74,070

9,480

7,088,470

128,820

14,920

1,074,610

746,900

88,000

8,260

415,040

25,040

127,120

322,050

6,210

1,117,650

854,570

8,166,480

57,150

378,300

29,030

4,568,630

40,530

9,070

5,757,220

21,320

13,020

916,370

762,970

163,290

19,320

505,760

37,190

85,680

317,510

7,240

1,433,350

654,990

6,674,160

50,800

297,560

86,180

594,210

6,290

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 21 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 22 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 23 NASS, USDA

May Weather Summary

Wet weather across the central one-third of the Nation contrasted with drier-than-normal conditions in the

East and West. In fact, record or near-record May wetness was observed in several locations from Texas to

the Dakotas, maintaining abundant to locally excessive moisture reserves for pastures, filling winter wheat,

and emerging summer crops. However, locally heavy downpours also caused local flooding and fieldwork

delays. Specifically, rain on the central and southern Plains hampered initial winter wheat harvesting and

threatened the quality of maturing wheat. The Plains’ wetness also slowed cotton, sorghum, and soybean

planting.

Meanwhile, generally wet weather in the western Corn Belt contrasted with below-normal rainfall in most

Midwestern areas from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Although monthly rainfall totals of 1 inch or less in

parts of the Ohio Valley represented near-record short-term dryness, stress on pastures and summer crops only

gradually increased due to generally adequate subsoil moisture reserves.

Farther south, however, drought intensified in most areas from the Delta to the southern Atlantic Coast. The

Southeastern drought hampered wildfire containment efforts, boosted irrigation demands, and maintained

severe stress on pastures and rain-fed summer crops. Late-month showers provided much-needed moisture

across southern Florida but largely bypassed the remainder of the Southeast. More significant rain, associated

with the passage of Tropical Storm Barry, fell across the southern Atlantic region in early June.

Elsewhere, New Mexico experienced wet weather, but warm, mostly dry conditions across the remainder of

the West promoted fieldwork and crop development. Scattered late-month showers aided pastures and small

grains in the Northwest. Due to largely disappointing cold-season snowfall and unusual spring warmth, much

of the West continued to brace for below-normal summer runoff. In addition, May reservoir storage was

already below-average for this time of year in Arizona, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming.

May Agricultural Summary

Above normal temperatures in the West, Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Great Plains, contrasted

with below normal temperatures in the southern Rocky Mountains, the southern Great Plains, the Gulf Coast,

and the southern Atlantic Coastal Plains. Emergence and development of summer crops progressed well

under mostly favorable conditions in the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley. Although precipitation totals were

below normal in the Ohio Valley during May, stress on pastures and summer crops was only gradually

increasing. On the Great Plains, wet conditions maintained abundant to locally excessive soil moisture for

winter wheat and summer crops. However, extended showers and thunderstorms producing rainfall of up to

14 inches in some areas, caused delays in planting and other fieldwork from Texas to the eastern Dakotas. 

Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions prevailed in the Southeast, stressing pastures and rain-fed summer crops and

maintained heavy irrigation demands. Lack of soil moisture delayed planting and slowed crop development.

On May 6, corn planting was 14 percentage points behind last year and 10 points behind the normal pace, as

wet weather slowed fieldwork. However, warm, and drier weather allowed rapid progress across most of the

Nation’s growing area, where planting advanced to 97 percent by month’s end, ahead of last year and the

5-year average. Emergence also progressed ahead of the normal pace, reaching 85 percent on May 27,

compared with 82 percent last year and 75 percent for the 5-year average. In Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota,

North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Texas, 90 percent or more of the crop was emerged. At month’s end,

78 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, compared with 70 percent good or excellent

last year.

Sorghum producers had seeded 46 percent of their acreage by May 27, compared with 52 percent last year

and 48 percent for the 5-year average. Planting lagged well behind due to wet conditions in Kansas,

advancing to 24 percent complete by month’s end, 9 points behind last year and 12 points behind the normal

pace. However, planting was most advanced in the Mississippi Delta, at 99 percent complete in Louisiana

and complete in Arkansas, both ahead of normal. Planting was also ahead of normal in Texas despite the

heavy rainfall during the month. Elsewhere, dry, warm conditions allowed growers in Illinois and Nebraska

to progress well ahead of normal.

Oat seeding lagged behind at the beginning of May, but by May 20, ninety-eight percent of the acreage had

been planted, ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Planting was near completion in all States, and ahead
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 24 NASS, USDA

of the normal pace in all States, except South Dakota. Emergence of the crop also advanced ahead of the

5-year average pace. By month’s end 95 percent of the crop was emerged, the same as last year but 4 points

ahead of the normal pace. The crop was completely emerged in Nebraska, Ohio, and Texas and at or ahead of

the normal pace in all States, except Pennsylvania.

Barley planting progressed ahead of normal throughout May. Ninety-five percent of the acreage had been

seeded by May 20, seven points ahead of last year and 10 points ahead of normal. All States were ahead of

normal and planting was complete in Washington. Likewise, emergence of the crop was ahead of normal,

reaching 86 percent by month’s end, 9 percentage points ahead of last year and 12 points ahead of the 5-year

average.

Winter wheat heading began the month behind the normal pace but advanced ahead of normal by month’s

end. On May 27, eighty percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage, 1 point ahead of last year and

3 points ahead of the 5-year average. Heading was complete in Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and

Oklahoma, but had not yet begun in Montana by month’s end. May showers maintained abundant to locally

excessive soil moisture throughout the Great Plains for filling winter wheat. Although the April 7-8 freeze

slowed crop development in Kansas and Missouri, more favorable conditions in May allowed the crop to

develop at or ahead of normal in both States. Meanwhile, the overall condition of the crop remained the same

throughout the month.

Spring wheat producers trailed behind the normal planting pace early in the month, but accelerated during the

month to surpass the normal pace. With two weeks left in May, 95 percent of the crop had been sown,

6 points ahead of last year and 9 points ahead of the 5-year average. Planting was at or ahead of normal in all

major producing States. Similarly, emergence began the month behind normal but progressed rapidly during

the month. On May 27, eighty-nine percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 80 percent last year and

76 percent for 5-year average. Emergence was ahead of normal in all States by month’s end, except South

Dakota, where the crop trailed 1 point behind the normal pace.

Rice planting was at 98 percent complete by month’s end, 6 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of

the normal pace. Planting was complete or nearly complete in all States, and was ahead of the normal pace in

all States, except Texas. On May 27, ninety-two percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 83 percent

last year and 84 percent for the 5-year average. Emergence advanced by 13 points in the final week of the

month, and all States were ahead of normal, except Texas.

Eighty percent of the soybean crop was planted by May 27, ahead of last year’s pace by 5 percentage points

and 13 points ahead of the normal pace. With corn planting nearing completion, many growers were able to

take advantage of the warm and drier conditions in May and concentrate on planting soybeans. All States,

except Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, and South Dakota, were ahead of their normal planting pace. 

Meanwhile, emergence was 6 percent complete on May 13, two points behind normal, but advanced to

48 percent complete, 13 points ahead of normal, by the end of the month.

Sunflower seeding was 41 percent complete on May 27, one point behind last year but 9 points ahead of the

5-year average. Planting was most advanced in North Dakota, at 61 percent complete, where favorable

weather conditions promoted planting activities. Elsewhere, heavy rainfall hampered fieldwork in Kansas,

where progress was 18 points behind last year and 16 points behind the normal pace.

Peanut growers planted 63 percent of their intended acreage by the end of the month, 10 points behind last

year and 16 points behind the 5-year average. In the Southeast, drought conditions hampered fieldwork

where seeding lagged behind the normal pace by 26 points in Georgia, 20 points in Florida, 10 points in

South Carolina, and 6 points in Alabama.

Seventy-four percent of the cotton crop had been planted by month’s end, 8 points behind last year and

5 points behind the normal pace. Excessive soil moisture in the central and southern Great Plains and a lack

of soil moisture in the Southeast hindered cotton planting during May. Progress was 15 points or more

behind the normal pace in Oklahoma, Georgia, and Kansas. Elsewhere, planting was complete in Arkansas,

California, and Missouri. By May 27, squaring was underway on 5 percent of the acreage nationwide, 1 point

behind normal.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 25 NASS, USDA

Sugarbeet planting advanced to 97 percent complete by May 13, compared with 78 percent last year and

89 percent for the 5-year average. Planting was complete or near completion, and was at or ahead of normal

in all States, except Michigan. In the Red River Valley planting was well ahead of normal due to near ideal

weather.

Winter Wheat: Production is forecast at 1.61 billion bushels, down less than one percent from the May 1

forecast but up 24 percent from 2006. Based on June 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 43.2 bushels

per acre, down 0.3 bushel from the previous forecast, but up 1.5 bushels from last year. Grain area totals

37.2 million acres, up fractionally from last month. As of May 27, heading had reached 80 percent in the

18 major States, 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Progress was slightly behind normal during

the first part of the month due primarily to below normal temperatures, but was ahead of normal by the end of

the month. Harvest was underway in the southern-most portions of the growing area.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the 6 Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas,

Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year’s level in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and

Texas but below in Montana and Nebraska. Condition ratings improved during May in Montana and Texas

while the other States showed little change. Harvest was just getting started in Texas and Oklahoma due to

delays from wet weather. In Colorado, scattered hail has caused some damage but the beneficial moisture

surrounding these storms has been positive. Wet conditions in Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma have

increased disease pressure while Montana enjoyed normal precipitation across the State in May.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the 3 Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and

Ohio) are above last year’s level in Missouri and Ohio but below in Illinois. Condition ratings improved in all

three States during May. In Missouri, fields are recovering better than originally expected from freeze and

flood damage incurred in April and May. Ohio’s crop progress was well ahead of the usual pace, and the

majority of the acreage is in fair to good condition.

In the Pacific Northwest States (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington), yields are unchanged from last month in

Washington and Idaho but down in Oregon. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in

Washington are slightly above last year. Condition ratings declined in Washington and Oregon due to dry

weather and warm temperatures in May. Crop progress was ahead of the normal pace for all three States at

the end of May.

Durum Wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast at a collective 16.6 million

bushels, unchanged from May 1 but 20 percent above their 2006 total of 13.8 million bushels. Durum wheat

in California is progressing normally, with no quality or disease problems. The harvest in Arizona is

progressing well.

Peaches: The 2007 peach crop in California, Georgia, and South Carolina is forecast at 865,000 tons, up

6 percent from 2006 but 12 percent below two years ago.

The California Clingstone crop is forecast at 450,000 tons, equal to the May 1 forecast but 25 percent above

2006. California experienced an adequate number of chilling hours which benefitted the Clingstone crop. 

Overall, the bloom was reported to be good on all varieties. Thinning is progressing slowly due to labor

shortages and heavy fruit sets. Fruit size appears to be small at this point, but the fruit looks very clean. 

Harvest is expected to begin in Kingsburg the week of June 10, about a week earlier than last year. 

The California Freestone crop is forecast at 390,000 tons, equal to the May 1 forecast but 10 percent above

the 2006 crop. The crop was reported to be of excellent quality with good sizes. The bloom period was fairly

quick with above average temperatures and no rain. Harvest continued during May with Super Rich, Snow

Angel, and Spring Snow the major varieties picked.

The South Carolina crop is forecast at 8,000 tons, down 87 percent from last year and 89 percent below the

2005 crop. A severe post bloom freeze in early April destroyed much of the peach crop. Many growers

reported no peaches for harvest this season. Damage was reported across the entire State, with equally severe

losses reported in both of the primary growing areas.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 26 NASS, USDA

Georgia’s peach crop is forecast at 17,000 tons, down 59 percent from last year’s crop and 58 percent below

2005. Freezing temperatures on April 7 and 8 severely damaged the crop, while dry spring conditions

reduced fruit size. However, quality of harvested fruit has been excellent.

Bartlett Pears: Production of Bartlett Pears in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at

435,000 tons, up 2 percent from last year and 11 percent above 2005.

Production in California is forecast at 210,000 tons, up 6 percent from last season and 27 percent above

2 years ago. Weather conditions were nearly ideal during the blooming period. Farmers in all pear tree

growing districts reported full trees with evenly ripening fruit. Harvest is expected to begin around the

middle of July.

Oregon growers expect to harvest 65,000 tons, up 8 percent from last year and 12 percent above the 2005

Bartlett crop. Overall growing conditions have been favorable for pear growth and development. Bloom

came and went without many problems. Reporters indicated they expect Bartlett production along the

Washington border and in southern Oregon to be better than in recent years.

Washington’s Bartlett crop is forecast at 160,000 tons, down 4 percent from both the 2006 and 2005 seasons. 

The crop size was somewhat moderated by a cool spring. April frosts and poor pollination hindered some

orchards. However, a good snowpack should provide adequate irrigation water throughout the season.

Sweet Cherries: The 2007 sweet cherry production for California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at

287,000 tons, up 9 percent from 2006 and 31 percent above 2005. Washington’s production is forecast at

155,000 tons, down 9 percent from the previous year. Washington’s cherry crop experienced a relatively cool

spring in the Yakima area with some damaging frost in low-lying areas of the Lower Yakima Valley,

Tri-Cities, and Columbia Basin. Overall fruit quality is expected to be very good. The California crop, at

92,000 tons, is up 119 percent from 2006 and 75 percent above 2005. Clear spring weather and above normal

temperatures during bloom benefitted pollination, increasing fruit set. Harvest of Brooks and Tulare varieties

began in early May. Oregon production is forecast at 40,000 tons, down 20 percent from 2006 but up

40 percent from 2005. Frost damage in March and cool temperatures during bloom decreased fruit set in

parts of Oregon. 

Prunes (Dried Plums): California’s 2007 prune production forecast is 95,000 dried tons, down 47 percent

from last year’s crop of 180,000 tons and 2 percent below the 2005 crop. The 2007 prune crop experienced

an extremely warm period during bloom. The bloom time was one of the shortest in recent years, with several

reports of dry weather conditions during bloom hampering bee pollination activities. As a result of poor

pollination, fruit set was depressed. Production was also hindered due to stressed orchards recovering from

the previous year’s high production.

Apricots: California’s 2007 production forecast is 90,000 tons, up 131 percent from the 2006 crop and

19 percent more than 2005. After a greatly reduced crop last year, the production of California apricots has

rebounded. Bloom was reported as good with little rain damage. Fruit set and quality were also reported to

be good. Harvest began in April and continued throughout May with Poppy, Earlicot, Castlebrite, Katy,

Primacot, Judy’s Delight, and Red Velvet as the primary varieties being harvested.

Florida Citrus: Rainfall during the month was sparse with only localized showers reported. Surface water

levels are at or near record lows. Lake Okeechobee reached a record low level during the month. Growers

continued to irrigate as much as possible to maintain tree vigor and condition. Water restrictions were in

place in many areas. Temperatures were at near normal levels with mornings in the 60s and 70s and

afternoons reaching the high 80s. Trees were generally reported to be in good to fair condition although trees

in non-irrigated groves were showing signs of stress.

Valencia harvest reached a level of over five million boxes per week, with quality improving throughout the

month. Some processing plants closed in late May and sent their remaining fruit to other plants. Grapefruit

harvest declined weekly as exports ended. Processing grapefruit usage declined rapidly and by the end of the

month was less than one hundred thousand boxes per week. Honey tangerine harvest finished mid-month. 

Caretaker programs consisted of hedging, topping, and applying post bloom nutritional sprays. Resetting took
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 27 NASS, USDA

place where trees were available. In addition to normal maintenance programs, growers scouted for citrus

greening and removed infected trees.

California Citrus: Harvest of oranges, tangerines, mandarins, grapefruit, and lemons continued throughout

the month of May. Navel orange harvest was nearly complete by month’s end while Valencia harvest

volumes were increasing. Bloom was finished by the end of the month. Many growers treated groves to

control fungus and weeds as well as applied foliar nutrients. Pruning of frost damaged limbs and trees

continued.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape vineyard operators thinned grape shoots and leaves during

May. Thompson Seedless grapes in the Central Valley began blooming the second week of the month. Table

grape harvest began in the Coachella Valley in early May for Black Beauty Seedless, Flame Seedless,

Perlette, and White Seedless varieties. Vineyards across the State continued to be fertilized, irrigated, and

sprayed to control weeds, diseases, and insects. Fruit thinning continued in apple, pear, and quince orchards. 

Apple orchards were sprayed to control insects. Stone fruit orchards were irrigated, fertilized, and treated

with herbicides. Harvest was underway for Poppy, Earlicot, Castlebrite, Katy, Primacot, Judy’s Delight, and

Red Velvet apricots. Cherry varieties harvested during May included Brooks, Rainier, and Tulare. Harvest of

Crimson Lady, Early Saturn, Saturn, Spring Snow, May Sweet, Queencrest, Snow Angel, Spring Flame,

Sugartime, and Super Rich peaches as well as Earligold, Mayfire, Spring Flare, Red Jewel, and Zee Fire

nectarines was underway. Harvest of Flavorosa pluots began the last week of the month. Plum harvest also

began during May for the Red Beaut and Black Ice varieties. Pomegranates and olives were blooming. 

Kiwifruit vines were treated to control weeds and insects. Strawberry and blueberry harvests continued. 

Almond orchards were sprayed for weeds and mites, and walnut groves were sprayed to control blight. 

Cultural activities in nut orchards included fertilization and irrigation. Almond and pistachio crops were

reported to be progressing well.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2006-07 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.58 million tons, up less than 1 percent

from the May 1 forecast and 28 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 1.23 million tons. 

Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 27.2 million boxes (1.16 million tons), up less than 1 percent

from last month and 41 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes

(820,000 tons). The all white grapefruit forecast is 9.30 million boxes (395,000 tons), down 2 percent from

May but 43 percent above last season’s final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.9 million

boxes (761,000 tons), is up 2 percent from last month and 40 percent above last season's utilization. The row

count survey conducted May 30-31 showed fewer than 2 percent of the white grapefruit rows remained to be

harvested while almost 5 percent of the colored grapefruit rows remained unharvested. Arizona, California,

and Texas forecasts are carried forward from April.

Tangerines: The 2006-07 U.S. tangerine forecast is 328,000 tons, unchanged from the May forecast but

21 percent lower than last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at

4.60 million boxes (219,000 tons), unchanged from the May forecast but 16 percent lower than last season’s

utilization of 5.50 million boxes. This season’s tangerine harvest is complete in Florida. Arizona and

California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from April.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons), unchanged from the May 1 forecast

but down 11 percent from last season’s final utilized production. Tangelo harvest is complete with 66 percent

of this season’s crop being processed.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.10 million pounds for May, down 6 percent from

April but 18 percent more than May 2006. Area in crop totaled 1,940 acres, 1 percent higher than last month

but 4 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 870 acres in May, up 1 percent from April but

51 percent lower than May 2006. Conditions in papaya growing areas were generally sunny and dry during

May. Orchards benefitted from warm temperatures and longer day lengths. Trees in irrigated orchards made

good progress while those without irrigation experienced slower growth and fruit development. The drier

weather reduced fungal outbreaks but insects, Papaya Ringspot Virus, and wild pigs remained concerns for

some growers.

Hops: Area strung for harvest in 2007 for Washington, Oregon, and Idaho is forecast at 31,032 acres,

6 percent more than the 2006 crop of 29,365 acres, and 5 percent more than the 2005 crop of 29,463 acres. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 28 NASS, USDA

Washington accounts for 73 percent of the U.S. total with 22,749 acres for harvest, 1,217 acres more than a

year ago. Oregon hop growers plan to string 5,177 acres, or 17 percent of the U.S. total for 2007, with Idaho

hop growers accounting for the remaining 10 percent, or 3,106 acres strung for harvest. Compared with a

year ago, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho acreage increased, 6 percent, 3 percent, and 11 percent,

respectively.

In general, hops are one-third to half way to the wire, slightly ahead of normal due to early warm weather. 

Water supplies are expected to be adequate this season as there was ample snowfall during the winter. No

serious disease concerns were reported and growers are expecting a good crop.

Sugarbeets: Production for the 2006 crop year is revised to a record high 34.1 million tons, 1 percent above

the January end-of-season estimate and 24 percent higher than 2005. Area harvested totaled 1.30 million

acres, 500 fewer acres than the January estimate, but 5 percent greater than the previous year. The revised

yield, at 26.1 tons per acre, is the highest on record, up 0.2 ton from January and 4.0 tons higher than the yield

in 2005.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for the 2006 crop year is revised to 29.6 million

tons, down 1 percent from the March 1 estimate but 11 percent above 2005. Area harvested for sugar and

seed during the 2006 crop year totaled 898,100 acres, down 1 percent from the March estimate and down

3 percent from 2005. Yield is estimated at 32.9 tons per acre, 0.1 ton higher than the March estimate and

4.0 tons greater than the 2005 crop.

Total production of cane for sugar and seed increased from the previous year in all States, except Hawaii. 

Area harvested for sugar decreased 11,600 acres and area harvested for seed was down 12,200 acres from

2005. Yield per acre for sugarcane for sugar increased 4.2 tons per acre from the previous year, resulting in

an overall increase of 13 percent in sugarcane for sugar production from 2005. Sugarcane for seed yield

increased 1.9 tons per acre from the previous year. This increase was not enough to offset the decrease in

harvested acres, resulting in a 14 percent decrease in sugarcane for seed production from 2005.

Sweet Potatoes: Production for the 2006 crop year is revised to 16.2 million cwt, down 1 percent from the

January Crop Production 2006 Summary but up 3 percent from 2005. Area harvested, at 86,800 acres, is

down less than 1 percent from January and 2 percent from 2005. The average yield, at 187 cwt per acre, is a

record high yield, down 2 cwt from the January estimate but 9 cwt above 2005. 

Production in California, at 3.72 million cwt, is down 2 percent from January based on a 2 percent decrease in

harvested acres. South Carolina production decreased 25 percent due to reduced acres and a 20 cwt drop in

yield. Production is down 35 percent from January in Texas, where drought conditions during the 2006

growing season resulted in lower yields than previously expected.

Maple Syrup: The 2007 U.S. maple syrup production totaled 1.26 million gallons, down 13 percent from

2006. The number of taps is estimated at 7.28 million, up less than 1 percent from the 2006 total of

7.26 million, while the yield per tap is estimated to be 0.173 gallons, down 14 percent from the previous

season.

Vermont led all States in production with 450,000 gallons, a decrease of 2 percent from 2006. Production in

Maine, at 225,000 gallons, decreased 25 percent from last season. Production in New York, at

224,000 gallons, is 11 percent below 2006. Production was down 25 percent in Massachusetts and

Wisconsin, 23 percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania, 20 percent in Connecticut, 6 percent in New

Hampshire, and 4 percent in Ohio. Decreased yields were the largest contributing factor to the decrease in

production.

Temperatures were not favorable for sap flow in 2007 except in Ohio where the majority of producers

reported favorable weather. Producers in New England experienced conditions that were mostly too cold for

sap flow. The remaining States, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, experienced

weather that was mostly too warm for sap flow. However, there were some extremely cold spells in many of

these States that also hindered sap flow. On average, the season lasted 27 days compared with 28 days last

year. New York reported the earliest season opening date of January 5. Maine reported the latest sap flow in

2007 with an approximate season ending date of May 7.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 29 NASS, USDA

Sugar content of the sap for 2007 was down from the previous year. On average, approximately 45 gallons of

sap were required to produce one gallon of syrup. This compares with 44 gallons in 2006 and 40 gallons in

2005. The majority of the syrup produced in each State this year was medium to dark in color, except in

Maine where most was reported to be light in color.

The 2006 U.S. average price per gallon was $31.30, up $1.40 from the 2005 price of $29.90. The U.S. value

of production, at $45.3 million for 2006, was up 22 percent from 2005. Value of production increased in all

States except Massachusetts.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 30 NASS, USDA

Reliability of June 1 Crop Production Forecast

Wheat Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between May 22 and

June 6 to gather information on expected yield as of June 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in

10 States that accounted for 68 percent of the 2006 winter wheat production. Farm operators were

interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample

plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's

maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to

predict the number of heads that will be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years

to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The

plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. After

the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting

loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal

interviewers. Approximately 6,500 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions

about the probable yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the

growing season to provide indications of average yields.

Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the June 1 forecast was conducted in

Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at

the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review

based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per

tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys

are conducted, which combined with the previous components, are used to develop the current forecast of

production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in

October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for

navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Wheat Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were

reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed

considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State

Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The

ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published June 1 forecasts.

Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for

errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its

analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey

data and their analyses to prepare the published June 1 forecast. The June 1 orange production forecasts for

Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from April.

Revision Policy: The June 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made

each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the

end of the wheat marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports,

millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other

administrative data warrant changes. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end

of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

June 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 31 NASS, USDA

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 winter wheat production forecast is 5.3 percent. This means

that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current winter wheat production will not be above or below the final

estimate by more than 5.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference

will not exceed 9.1 percent. Differences between the June 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final

estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 69 million bushels, ranging from 8 million to 242 million

bushels. The June 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. This does not

imply that the June 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 orange production forecast is 1.3 percent. This means that

chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final

estimates by more than 1.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference

will not exceed 2.3 percent. Changes between the June 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the

past 20 years have averaged 114,000 tons, ranging from 5,000 tons to 368,000 tons. The June 1 forecast for

oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. The difference does not imply that the

June 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 2007 32 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics

Service to contact for additional information.

Jeff Geuder, Chief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head ................................................. (202) 720-2127

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-5944

Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-8068

Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed ................................ (202) 720-9526

Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-7688

Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds ...................... (202) 720-7369

King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 690-3234

Greg Thessen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops ........................ (202) 720-2127

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section

Lance Honig, Head . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco .................... (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries ....................................... (202) 720-2157

Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits .................................. (202) 720-5412

Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4215

Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils,

Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

Wrinkled Seed Peas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-3250

Faye Propsom- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

Plums, Prunes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4285
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