Cr Pr 2-2 (2-06)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released February 9, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Unchanged

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2005-06 season is 9.22 million tons, unchanged from the January forecast

but 1 percent above last season's final utilization of 9.11 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at

158 million boxes (7.11 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from the

2004-05 crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties are forecast at 80.0 million boxes (3.60 million tons),

unchanged from the previous forecast but 1 percent above last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia

forecast is 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent

from last season's final utilization. Estimates of bearing tree numbers used to produce this month’s forecasts

are unchanged from last month. Current measurements of fruit drop indicate increased droppage for the

early-midseason crop, but a lower Valencia drop rate than was forecast last month. January measurements of

fruit sizes continue to indicate smaller than average fruit for both the early-midseason and Valencia crops. If

realized, the forecasted average Valencia fruit size at harvest will be the smallest since objective

measurements began in 1960. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward

from January.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2005-06 season, at 1.58 gallons per box at

42.0 degrees Brix, is up from last month’s 1.55 gallons per box but equal to last season’s yield as reported by

the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.52 gallons, up

from the 1.46 gallons per box forecast last month but down from 1.53 gallons for the 2004-05 crop. The

Valencia yield, at 1.66 gallons, is unchanged from last month but down from the 1.68 gallons last season. All

projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several

seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on February 9, 2006.

Secretary of

Agriculture

Mike Johanns

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Carol C. House
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Lemons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangelos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangerines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Crop Summary ........................................................................6

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2004-2005

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2004 2005 2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

385.0

21.8

430.0

42.7

879.5

21.0

1.4

35.0

1.3

58.7

406.0

23.2

465.0

44.0

938.2

383.0

22.4

420.0

41.0

866.4

19.0

1.5

35.0

2.0

57.5

402.0

23.9

455.0

43.0

923.9

34.9

90.8

23.8

37.3

31.0

40.2

33.5

23.8

35.0

30.2

35.2

87.3

23.8

37.3

30.9

32.0

90.3

23.0

37.7

29.4

39.0

36.0

23.0

24.5

28.7

32.3

86.9

23.0

37.1

29.4

13,437

1,979

10,234

1,593

27,243

844

47

833

46

1,770

14,281

2,026

11,067

1,639

29,013

12,256

2,023

9,660

1,546

25,485

741

54

805

49

1,649

12,997

2,077

10,465

1,595

27,134

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the “Crop Production 2005 Summary.”

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2005-2006

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2005 2006

2005 2006 2005 2006

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Dec

Jan

2,290

2,245 2,280

1,780

1,410 1,785

2,105

2,580 2,815

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2003-2004, 2004-2005 and Forecasted February 1, 2006 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early, Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

300

39,500

126,000

1,420

167,220

170

11,000

116,000

230

127,400

470

50,500

242,000

1,650

294,620

1,400

15,900

25,000

140

5,800

40,900

5,700

52,540

690

2,200

6,500

9,390

3,000

18,000

21,000

1,000

240

43,000

79,100

1,500

123,840

190

18,000

70,500

270

88,960

430

61,000

149,600

1,770

212,800

650

3,400

9,400

140

5,800

12,800

6,600

25,340

400

2,800

4,450

7,650

2,400

19,000

21,400

1,550

250

42,000

80,000

1,300

123,550

200

12,000

78,000

230

90,430

450

54,000

158,000

1,530

213,980

800

4,000

12,000

100

6,000

16,000

5,100

27,200

500

3,100

5,200

8,800

3,800

19,000

22,800

1,200

12

1,481

5,670

60

7,223

6

413

5,220

10

5,649

18

1,894

10,890

70

12,872

63

675

1,063

5

194

1,738

228

2,165

25

83

309

417

114

684

798

45

9

1,613

3,560

64

5,246

7

675

3,173

11

3,866

16

2,288

6,733

75

9,112

29

145

400

5

194

545

264

1,008

15

105

211

331

91

722

813

70

9

1,575

3,600

55

5,239

8

450

3,510

10

3,978

17

2,025

7,110

65

9,217

36

170

510

3

201

680

204

1,088

19

116

247

382

144

722

866

54

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90;

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2005 2006 2005 2006

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3,875.0

81,759.0

4,246.0

565.0

3,384.0

1,433.0

6,454.0

57,229.0

40,433.0

2,760.0

14,036.0

1,159.0

983.0

49.0

1,657.0

2.4

165.0

72,142.0

2,709.0

14,195.4

13,925.0

270.4

1,294.8

42.5

1,659.3

808.0

450.0

1,107.2

20.0

68.0

50.6

968.6

90.4

41,367.0

17.7

3,269.0

75,107.0

5,920.0

61,649.0

22,389.0

39,260.0

1,823.0

515.0

3,364.0

279.0

5,736.0

311.0

50,119.0

33,794.0

2,716.0

13,609.0

1,114.0

955.0

44.6

1,629.0

2.0

160.0

71,361.0

2,610.0

13,702.6

13,434.0

268.6

1,238.9

923.9

298.0

24.5

1,562.9

765.9

439.0

6.1

0.1

29.5

76.0

1,084.6

19.8

66.7

48.6

949.5

17.7

87.8

0.4

17.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Yield Production

2005 2006 2005 2006

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

“

Tons

“

“

“

Bu

“

Cwt

Bu

“

Tons

Bu

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Bu

Lbs

“

“

“

Bu

Lbs

Bales

“

“

Tons

“

Lbs

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

Cwt

Lbs

64.8

147.9

18.0

2.44

3.38

1.91

63.0

26.3

6,636

27.0

68.7

13.6

42.0

44.4

37.2

37.1

1,419

20.6

787

2,960

1,500

1,203

43.3

1,540

831

824

1,171

22.3

29.4

2,147

1,253

1,742

1,828

1,176

1,050

42,500

1,791

92

388

247

281

334

401

109

179

254

211,896

11,112,072

106,311

150,590

75,771

74,819

114,878

13,545

223,235

7,537

393,893

4,218

2,104,690

1,499,129

101,105

504,456

1,580,985

8,501.0

19,695

35,114

4,821,250

3,000

192,545

3,086,432

4,018,355

23,719.0

23,064.0

655.0

27,654

27,134

639,709

307

27,222

14,003

5,163

755

6,400

5,100

52,914.5

6,980

420,879

4,892

18,724

16,237

381,026

1,933

15,747

4,000

4,440

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Production

2004 2005 2006

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI) 3

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Tons

“

“

“

“

“

1,000 Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

“

Lbs

Tons

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

Gals

2,165

798

12,872

45

417

63

10,450.6

101.1

16,500.0

6,240.0

104.0

35,800.0

1,307.1

877.3

49.0

25.0

1,005,000

37.5

185,800

325.0

1,507

1,008

813

9,112

70

331

29

9,869.6

81.4

6,974.9

139.0

32,500.0

1,182.6

812.3

90.0

8.7

900,000

28.0

259,600

355.0

1,242

1,088

866

9,217

54

382

36

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season. 2 Production years are 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006. 3 2005 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2005 2006 2005 2006

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

1,568,170

33,087,050

1,718,310

228,650

1,369,470

579,920

2,611,870

23,160,000

16,362,830

1,116,940

5,680,230

469,040

397,810

19,830

670,570

970

66,770

29,195,150

1,096,310

5,744,740

5,635,310

109,430

523,990

17,200

671,500

326,990

182,110

448,070

8,090

27,520

20,480

391,980

36,580

16,740,810

7,160

1,322,930

30,395,050

2,395,760

24,948,730

9,060,600

15,888,130

737,750

208,420

1,361,380

112,910

2,321,300

125,860

20,282,660

13,676,090

1,099,140

5,507,430

450,820

386,480

18,050

659,240

810

64,750

28,879,080

1,056,240

5,545,310

5,436,610

108,700

501,370

373,890

120,610

9,910

632,490

309,950

177,660

2,470

50

11,960

30,760

438,930

8,010

26,990

19,670

384,250

7,160

35,530

150

7,080

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2005 2006 2005 2006

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.49

9.29

40.26

5.48

7.59

4.27

2.26

1.47

7.44

1.70

4.31

30.40

2.82

2.98

2.50

2.49

1.59

1.29

0.88

3.32

1.68

1.35

2.91

1.73

0.93

0.92

1.31

50.04

65.84

2.41

1.40

1.95

2.05

1.32

1.18

47.64

2.01

0.10

43.49

27.69

31.46

37.45

44.98

0.12

20.10

28.44

4,613,490

282,259,630

96,443,720

136,612,950

68,738,290

67,874,660

1,667,450

307,200

10,125,770

191,450

10,005,340

3,826,510

57,280,270

40,799,610

2,751,630

13,729,040

717,120

7,711,980

500,280

15,930

2,186,880

1,360

87,340

83,998,910

1,822,700

5,164,200

5,021,590

142,610

25,087,290

24,615,550

290,170

13,930

1,234,770

635,170

234,190

34,250

2,900

2,310

24,000

3,170

19,090,750

221,900

849,310

736,500

17,283,050

880

714,270

1,810

201,400

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2004 2005 2006

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

1,964,050

723,930

11,677,280

40,820

378,300

57,150

4,740,310

91,740

7,480

5,660,860

94,350

16,240

1,185,790

795,840

44,450

22,680

455,860

34,020

84,280

294,840

7,530

914,440

737,540

8,266,270

63,500

300,280

26,310

4,476,780

73,800

6,327,520

126,100

14,740

1,072,840

736,930

81,650

7,890

408,230

25,400

117,750

322,050

6,210

987,020

785,620

8,361,520

48,990

346,540

32,660

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 12 NASS, USDA

January Weather Summary

January featured a remarkable stretch of sustained warmth virtually nationwide, boosting monthly

temperatures nearly 20 degrees F above normal on the northern Plains and generally 8 to 18 degrees F above

normal across the remainder of the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Dozens of locations noted their warmest

January, breaking records established in 1914 and 1919. Near-normal January readings were confined to

southern Florida, parts of California, and the Desert Southwest.

The new year began in the midst of a flood event from northern California into parts of the Northwest. 

Although showery January weather maintained soggy or snowy conditions in the West as far south as central

California, the Great Basin, and Utah’s Wasatch Range, the region escaped further widespread flooding. In

stark contrast, drought intensified under a dry regime in Arizona and New Mexico due to diminishing soil

moisture reserves, meager mountain snowpacks, and prospects for below-normal spring and summer runoff. 

Exceptionally dry conditions also persisted in winter wheat areas on the southern Plains, further stressing

pastures and winter grains. The remainder of the Plains also reported mostly below-normal precipitation and

diminishing soil moisture reserves. However, the northern and central Plains’ wheat continued to benefit from

a lack of weather extremes, despite minimal snow cover and a gradual loss of the crop’s winter hardiness. 

Most winter wheat areas of the Midwest experienced a wet January, but mild weather kept fields mostly

muddy rather than frozen. Muddy conditions were a concern, however, for some Midwestern livestock,

especially from the Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes region. Elsewhere, Southern pastures and winter

grains from eastern Texas to the Delta benefited from soil moisture improvements, but winter agricultural

areas of southern Texas and peninsular Florida remained extremely dry through month’s end. In early

February, however, heavy showers across Florida’s peninsula slowed fieldwork but halted the need for

irrigation.

January Agricultural Summary

Above-normal temperatures prevailed nationwide during the month. Temperatures were particularly mild in

the northern Great Plains, where temperatures nearly 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal depleted protective

snow cover, leaving winter wheat exposed to potential cold weather. Dry conditions in the southern Great

Plains stressed winter grains, with most of Texas’s winter wheat and oat crops rated in very poor condition.

Across most of the Corn Belt, moderate precipitation was generally favorable for crops but caused some

muddy pastures. Above-normal temperatures threatened to break dormancy in winter wheat, leaving the crop

vulnerable to a winter kill if cold weather returns. Encouraged by the warm weather, some growers engaged

in pre-plant fieldwork normally done in the Spring.

Moderate precipitation in the Delta and Southeast was generally beneficial for small grains and pastures,

though mud problems were reported in some pastures and fields. Growers in most areas were preparing land

for spring planting, while sugarcane harvest was active throughout the month in Florida.

Precipitation was well above normal in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains. Some pastures

and fields were completely underwater due to excessive rainfall and swelling of rivers and streams. The

moisture was generally beneficial for winter wheat but depleted snow cover, leaving the crop exposed if cold

weather returns to the region.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2005 is forecast at 27.1 million tons, 3 percent

below the previous forecast, 6 percent below 2004, and the lowest since 1980. Area harvested and to be

harvested for sugar and seed for the 2005 crop year, at 923,900 acres, is up marginally from the previous

forecast but down 2 percent from last year’s harvested area. Yield is forecast at 29.4 tons per acre, 0.8 ton

below January, 1.5 tons below the 2004 crop, and the lowest since 1933.

Florida’s yield, at 32.3 tons per acre, is the lowest since 1989 and is down 2.0 tons from last month as harvest

progressed and growers were able to more accurately assess the damage caused by Hurricane Wilma. 

Harvested area, however, was up slightly due to more acreage harvested for seed. Estimates for Hawaii,

Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2005-06 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.09 million tons, unchanged from the

previous forecast but up 8 percent from last season’s final utilization. Florida's grapefruit production is

forecast at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 25 percent above last
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 13 NASS, USDA

year’s hurricane-damaged crop. The white grapefruit utilization forecast, at 4.00 million boxes

(170,000 tons), is unchanged from January but 18 percent above last season’s utilization. The colored

seedless utilization forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (510,000 tons), is also unchanged from the January 1

forecast but 28 percent higher than the 2004-05 season’s utilization. The fruit size and drop measurements

obtained in January, combined with number of bearing trees and fruit per tree, are the primary indicators used

for the February forecast. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from

January.

Tangerines: The 2005-06 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 382,000 tons, down 6 percent from the previous

forecast but up 15 percent from last season’s utilization of 331,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop is forecast at

5.20 million boxes (247,000 tons), down 9 percent from the January forecast but 17 percent higher than last

season’s 4.45 million boxes. Early tangerine (Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) harvest is almost complete with

fewer than 50,000 boxes harvested during each of the past two weeks. Harvest of the later Honey variety

tangerine is underway. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from January.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast, at 1.20 million boxes (54,000 tons), is unchanged from the January 1

forecast but down 23 percent from last season’s utilized production. Due to higher processing tangelo prices,

a more complete harvest is anticipated this season than in recent years.

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast for the 2005-06 season is 800,000 boxes (36,000 tons), unchanged from

the January forecast but 23 percent above last season’s hurricane-reduced final utilization of 650,000 boxes. 

If realized, this will be the second lowest utilized production behind last season.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.82 million pounds for January, up 34 percent from

the previous month and 9 percent more than January 2005. Area in crop totaled 2,280 acres, down less than

1 percent from last month but up 2 percent from last January. Harvested area totaled 1,785 acres, virtually

unchanged from last month but 27 percent above a year ago. Dry weather continued into January but a storm

brought much needed rain later in the month. Production is still being impacted by reduced fruit set caused by

dry weather earlier in the season. Orchards in Puna responded well to the recent rains, with new leaf growth

and blossom formation noted. Growers planted papaya trees in Opihikao and Pohoiki but large tracts of

previously farmed land still await planting. Young trees in Kalapana have begun to bear fruit.

Florida Citrus: Weather during January was generally warm and dry in Florida citrus producing areas. 

Two-tenths of an inch of rain was recorded in the north and just over one-half inch was recorded in the

western coastal citrus region. Most areas recorded at least a few days each week with temperatures in the low

80s. Growers in all areas irrigated and began applying fertilizer and herbicides after harvest. Some growers

also hedged and topped trees. Harvest of early and midseason oranges was delayed while some growers

waited for maturity and for acid to solid ratios to reach more desirable levels. Grapefruit harvest has been

steady since before the beginning of the year, with increasing quantities going to processing during the last

couple of weeks. Harvest of Honey tangerines and Temples began with most fruit destined for the fresh

market. All major processing plants have opened, with the exception of one that may not open at all this

season.

California Citrus: Rain and fog during much of the month caused problems with scheduling citrus harvest. 

Navel orange harvest continued as field conditions allowed but problems with puff and crease increased

grade-outs at packinghouses. Lemon harvest gained momentum, and pummelo, mandarin, and tangerine

harvests continued. Approximately one-third of the mandarin orange crop in Yuba County was lost from the

early-January flooding since growers will not market any fruit that the flood water covered. Blood orange

harvest increased. Juice processing plants continued to run at full capacity due to the high volume of

grade-outs.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Heavy rains during the first part of January delayed field work in

orchards and vineyards across the State. Some orchards experienced light damage from the rains and high

winds, mainly in the form of downed trees. Many tree fruit growers have also expressed concern over the

mild winter weather. Several areas have not received adequate chill hours and some trees have begun to

bloom prematurely. Buds began swelling in many of the early tree fruit varieties by mid-month and the use of

dormant sprays and pre-emergent herbicides increased. Vineyards were reported to have crews pruning, tying

canes, applying herbicides, and replacing stakes and trellis wires. A few growers continued to replace older

vines and trees. Blueberry and raspberry planting began in the San Joaquin Valley. Growers began placing

bee hives in almond orchards. Seasonal field work continued in nut orchards as field conditions permitted. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 14 NASS, USDA

Tree losses were reported in several almond orchards due to the wet conditions at the beginning of the month

and a few young walnut orchards were severely damaged by flood water in Yuba County. Pruning and brush

shredding continued in olive groves. A few olive groves in the Sanger district were harvested for oil.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 15 NASS, USDA

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of

the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on

administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is

determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are

conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of

production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in

October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for

navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root

Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you

exclude the 6 abnormal production years (5 freeze seasons and 1 hurricane season), the "Root Mean Square

Error" is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will

not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.3 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding abnormal

seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.4 percent,

or 5.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have

averaged 373,000 tons (308,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 745,000 tons

(3,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been

below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal

seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or

overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2006 16 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Scott Cox - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Travis Thorson - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-2157

Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
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Prospering in Rural America

February 16-17, 2006

 Crystal Gateway

 Marriott Hotel

 Arlington, Virginia

The theme is “Prospering in Rural America,” and the program

will highlight the economic development of rural America. In

addition, there will be a broad range of sessions, including

Shifting Trade Patterns, Chinese Agriculture, Homeland

Security, the African Growth & Opportunity Act, Bio-fuel

Production and New Energy Forms in Rural Areas, Community

Supported Agriculture, and Feedback from the 2007 Farm Bill

Listening Sessions. 

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns and other top experts in

agriculture will be among the more than 130 speakers. 

Find full program and registration details at

www.usda.gov/oce/forum or call toll free, 1-877-572-6043.

Forum speeches can be downloaded after February 17, 2006. 

 www.usda.gov/oce/forum (877) 572-6043 toll free