RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS
10-YEAR RECORD OF
Jeceee news cen eee wen eee tt DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
t 390% CONFIDENCE : AND FINAL ESTIMATE
CROP AND : : LEVEL tg enw n wenn w nn nn nn nnn nn ew enna enna nee
UNIT :PERCENT: Demet ee nen renee QUANTITY :NO. OF YEARS
: sBELOW :ABOVE
H SMALL: LARGE: FINAL tFINAL

FEED GRAINS 1/ MT
CORN FOR GRAIN BU

SORGHUM FOR
GRAIN BU

RICE CWT

SOYBEANS FOR
BEANS BU

COTTON BALE 2/

VU CORN FOR GRAIN,
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1979-88
(1977=100)

> ALL 1/: FEED : AND  : FOOD : SUGAR : COTTON : TOBACCO : OIL

: : GRAINS : FORAGE : GRAINS : CROPS : : : CROPS
1979: (113 16 108 108 94 102 80 129
1980 =: 101 97 98 121 97 79 93 99
1981 : V7 121 106 144 107 109 108 114
1982. : VW 122 109 138 96 85 104 121
1983: 88 67 100 7 93 55 75 91
1984 : 116 107 129 95 91 90 106
1985 : 117 134 106 121 97 93 79 W7
1986 : 107 123 106 107 106 68 61 107
1987: ~=106 105 102 106 m 103 62 106
1988: 89 7 92 110 108 102 70 87

VU INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS
OF CROPS SHOWN.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-20 WASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

OCTOBER 1, 1988

7)

e ) eats
Jy preay

——,

lstua' and EXD OF TEE GROWING

loses. .areLIcagLe 1 weasoatxo Tax seorT TEEw. Y}
[WeER-t3-4E2x, STATUS OF ORTNESS OR WETNESS APPECTING ¥ =
SEASON CROPS” AID FIELD OPERATIONS. EY?
liatrarrons...wuy sor ax appuicancs ro cexarnarins amp seautor KYO
toore> crops’ a

HICH ARE UNABLE TO EXTRACT THE DEEP OR SOBSOIL wOrsToRE|
HYROM A $-FOOT PROFILE, OR TOR COOL, SEASON CROPS GROWING THEN TEMPERA
‘ARE AVERAGING BELOW ABOUT 55°F. IT [3 NOT GENERALLY INDIcaTIVE Oy:
Jj, TEARS) DROUGHT OR FET SPELLS WHICH ARE DEPICTED
uty INDEX.

ove on prtninen reper
DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER) Pw
MODERATE
OCTOBER 1, 1988
Morst>”%, MOIST
EXTREME,
EME, is C —
MODERATE — (molst SEVERE
SEVERE —
A XTREME
XTREME:
Ee : eit JODERATE
Ft — AAR MODERATE
»
= a " eXTReMe
+ Wevene = =
, y
MoIsT Va
SEVERE —— acher
DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PALMER): oEPICTS PRON MOIST
GED (MONTUS YEARS)” ABNOMUAL DRYNESS ‘OR WETNESS;
SPONDS SLO¥LY; CHANCES LITTLE FROM EEC TO WEEE:
1D REFLECTS LONG TERM MOISTURE RUNOFF, RECBARGI .
(MD DEEP PERCOLATION. “AS. WELL AS EVAPOTRANSPIBATION,
ES. APPLICABLE 1N MEASURING DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF PROLONGR!
Wiis ON WETNESS ON WATE SENSETIVE ECONOMIBS: DESGNATING DIS — ~
[7 OR WETHDSS "AND ‘REFLECTING THE GENERAL LONG
ERM STATUS OF WATER SUPPLIES IN AQUIFERS RESERVOTRS, AND BTHEANSS
SMITATIONS...38 NOT GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SHORT TEI (YEO WEEK
STATUS OF pAdichT On YETNESS SuOM AS TREGUENTLY AFFECTS, CROPS AND WOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY sosedon pabinary eps

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-3 NASS, USDA



APPLES, COMMERCIAL Vv

PRODUCTION

STATE TOTAL 2/

MILLION POUNDS

ARK 3/ 10.0 4.0 10.0
CALIF 515.0 650.0 550.0
COLO 18.0 125.0 70.0
CONN 47.0 45.0 46.0
DEL 3/ 27.0 26.0 25.0
GA 3/ 30.0 50.0 30.0
IDAHO 94.0 149.0 130.0
ILL 90.0 103.0 87.0
IND 37.0 72.0 58.0
IOWA 3/ 5.5 10.0 12.0
KANS 3/ 3.0 12.0 11.0
KY 3/ 4.0 21.0 13.0
MAINE 88.0 75.0 89.0
MD 87.0 40.0 48.0
MASS 95.0 96.0 99.0
MICH 700.0 1,050.0 700.0
MINN 3/ 19.0 26.0 15.0
MO 37.0 53.0 51.0
NH 50.0 50.0 53.0
Nd 100.0 80.0 70.0
N MEX 3/ 6.0 12.6 12.6
NY 900.0 880.0 835.0
NC 120.0 390.0 330.0
OHIO 90.0 150.0 95.0
OREG 105.0 210.0 145.0
PA 620.0 460.0 490.0
RI 5.5 5.0 5.5
SC 3/ 30.0 45.0 36.0
TENN 3/ 9.0 15.0 13.0
UTAH 3/ 34.0 68.0 42.0
VT 49.0 44.0 44.0
VA 460.0 481.0 460.0
WASH z 3,160.0 4,800.0 3,200.0
WVA : 230.0 180.0 210.0
WIS 7 58.0 65.0 49.0
us 7,933.0 10,542.6 8,134.1

1/__IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES. 2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED
PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1986-25.7,
1987-300.8. 3/ ESTIMATES DOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORE-
CAST.

FILBERTS
PRODUCTION
STATE = UTILIZED 7
Poe e ccc ccc tere eee e eee eee eee ee: IND
1986 1987 1988
TONS (IN-SHELL BASIS)

OREG : 14,900 21,500 17,700
WASH : 200 300 300
us 15,100 21,800 18,000

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-37 NASS, USDA .



The Virginia-North Carolina crop is forecast at 743 million pounds, 17
percent above 1987, but 6 percent below September 1. Area for harvest is
expected to total 247 thousand acres, 4 percent above last year. Some disease
and insect damage was experienced in Virginia. Digging was delayed -in North
Carolina by wet weather and was only about 13 percent complete compared with
an average of 29 percent.

The Southwest crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to reach
670 million pounds, unchanged from last month but down 4 percent from last
year. Area harvested is expected to total 368 thousand acres, up 2 percent
from last year. Rain slowed harvest in the area.

SUNFLOWER: Production of all sunflower is forecast at 1.40 billion pounds,

down 46 percent from 1987 and 48 percent from 1986. This is the
fourth consecutive year sunflower production has declined and is the lowest
level recorded since estimates were initiated for the four State area
(Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas). Area for harvest, at 1.70
million acres, is down 4 percent from a year ago. Prospective yield, at 823
pounds per acre, is down 646 pounds from last year. Yield is forecast at
1,400 pounds in Texas, 1,350 pounds in Minnesota, and 800 pounds per acre in
North Dakota and South Dakota.

In the northern States, crop development was ahead of normal throughout
the growing season. Hot, dry conditions from June through August hurt yields,
especially in North Dakota and South Dakota. Harvest is progressing much
earlier than normal as North Dakota's harvest was 29 percent complete on
October 2, 1988 compared to the average of 5 percent. South Dakota's harvest
was 23 percent complete while Minnesota's harvest was progressing at a record
pace, starting two weeks ahead of normal.

COTTON: All cotton production is forecast at 14.7 million bales, slightly

below the 1987 crop but slightly above the September 1 forecast. The
Upland production forecast is for 14.3 million bales and American-Pima produc-
tion is expected to total a record high 366 thousand bales. Total area for
harvest is estimated at 11.7 million acres, up 16 percent from last year.
Yields are expected to average 605 pounds per harvested acre, down 101 pounds
per acre from 1987 but unchanged from September 1.

In Texas and Oklahoma, Upland production is forecast at 4.59 million bales,
down 8 percent from last year but unchanged from the September 1 forecast.
Texas harvest is continuing in the Blackltands although scattered showers
slowed operations in some areas. Some defoliation is occurring in the low
Plains. Continued cool temperatures have slowed development in the High
Plains and Trans Pecos areas. In Oklahoma, rainfall hetped late planted
cotton growth but cool weather slowed maturity.

Producers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
and Tennessee) expect to harvest 4.75 million bales, 4 percent above last year
and 1 percent above the September 1 forecast. The Delta crop continued to
show improvement, except in Missouri and Tennessee where heavy rains have
resulted in lower expectations.

Upland production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New
Mexico) is expected to total 3.98 million bales, up 2 percent from last year
and slightly above September 1. An increase in harvested acreage in Arizona
resulted in an increase in production despite a decrease in yield from last
month. Weather was excellent for harvest in California during the month.
Early harvesting in southern California began the week ending September 10,
and was in full swing by the end of the month.

Producers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina,
and South Carolina) expect to harvest 985 thousand bales, up 5 percent from
last year's production but down 2 percent from September 1. Excessive
moisture in the area during the month of September caused a deterioration in
yield and quality.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-8 NASS, USDA


2 1986
ALA : 340
ARIZ : 49
ARK : 885
CALIF. : 650
CcOLo : 3,300
DEL : 40
FLA : 120
GA : 640
IDAHO: 950
ILL : 1,300
IND : 900
IOWA : 90
KANS : 171,500
ky : 440
LA : 240
MD 3 160
MICH : 750
MINN : 180
MISS : 250
MO : 1,050
MONT : 2,150
NEBR : 2,300
NEV : 10
NJ : 40
N MEX: 740
NY 2 165
NC 2 525
N DAK : 520
OHIO : 1,150
OKLA : 7,400
OREG : 970
PA : 230
sc : 325
S DAK : 1,900
TENN : 430
TEX : 8,100
UTAH : 235
VA : 220
WASH : 2,250
W OVA : Nl
WIS 2 140
WYO : 320
us 53,965

2/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1988

AREA PLANTED 1/

1988

270
36

1,120

500

2,500

65
75
575
820

1,300

840
60

10,200

550
300
180
650

75
500

1,650
2,450
2,300

8
35
520
95
510
250

1,000
7,000

700
175
320

1,700

530

6,300

160
230

1,850

Y
140
250

A-14

AREA HARVESTED
1986

220

48
815
600

2,900

34
100
550
850
820
700

60

10,200

270
210
145
680
130
200
570

2,000
2,000

9
30
460
155
460
480

1,050
5,200

930
220
300

1,800

325

4,800

225
170

2,100

9
130
250

43,205

1/ AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.

1987 2/

1,000 ACRES

170
44
840
510
2,500
48
60
460
800
950
600
30
9,900
330
170
165
400
90
350
770
2,200
1,950

440

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA



Historic Statistical Series For Hay
1866 to Present

Hay crop
; Al +1909 - PRESENT
Allother | 4919 - PRESENT
All tame 1/; 1886 - 1938
Wild | 1909 - 1965
Alfalfa 2/ | 1919 - PRESENT
Clover Timothy | 1919 - 1970
Sweetclover [ 1924 - 1943
Grain F 1919 - 1970
Soybean } 1924 - 1953
Lespedeza [| 1924 - 1970
Peanut + 1924 - 1970
Cowpea [, , , , 1924, -, 1963, Z//-/-/

1865 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

1/ All hay except wild
2/ Includes altalfa mixtures

= Years estimated

U S HAY: Area Harvested, 1866 - 1987

Million Acres
oo

sol All Hay Me

60

All Other Hay #
40 Jo nae
Alfalfa & Alfalfa Mixtures

~~

20

ALU LULL BSL
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-18 NASS, USDA


HAY, A HISTORICAL REVIEW

Hay and pasture serve as the primary food for most livestock. As the
colonists, settlers, and pioneers began to inhabit our country, their cattle
grazed the meadows and our vast grasslands. During the cold months when the
grass didn't grow, they fed on the mature growth that remained along with
grass that these early pioneers cut, cured, and stored to carry their cattle
through the winter. The settlers also brought along seeds for many plants
familiar to them. Researchers brought in more seeds and developed improved
varieties. Over time, many introduced grasses and legumes came into
production providing pasture and hay. The National Agricultural Statistics
Service (NASS) began a series of estimates for acreage, yield, and production
of "All Tame Hay" with the 1866 crop. Expansion in acreage is evidenced by
the fact that 1866 was the lowest acreage and production of record. This
series was continued through 1938 and was the only series until "Wild Hay" and
"All Hay" estimates began in 1909.

Haying operations changed as the hand sickle and other man powered tools
gave way to horse drawn equipment and finally to today's large variety of
faster, less labor intensive equipment for putting up hay. Making of silage
and haylage, baling, and dehydration gradually became widespread methods of
preserving the winter time feed supply. With modern dairy operations, feed
lot fattening of beef animals, and the advent of green chopping, feeding of
various forms of roughage other than hay is also now widespread.

Because of the wide range of temperatures, rainfall, and soils that exist
in the United States, some legume and grass species may flourish in one area
and do poorly in another. As a consequence, a type of hay very common in one
place may be either non-existent or rare in another place. However, some
types of hay are produced in widespread areas. Alfalfa and mixtures of
alfalfa with other legumes and grasses is the most widely grown hay crop
today. NASS once compiled statistics on a wide variety of hay crops but
statistics are now published for only two categories, namely "Alfalfa and
alfalfa mixtures" and "All other hay".

Alfalfa is generally believed to have originated in southwestern Asia but
forms from which it may have developed are found in China and Siberia.
Historical accounts indicate it was first cultivated in Persia. From Persia,
it was taken to the Mediterranean countries and finally to North and South
America. The first recorded attempt to grow alfalfa in the United States was
made in Georgia in 1736. It was not until} about 1850 that Chilean alfalfa was
brought to California. It proved successful and has since spread throughout
the country. Expansion was such that acreage is said to have doubled every
ten years from 1899 to 1919. The 1919 crop was the first year for which NASS
published hay statistics on the acreage, yield, and production for "Alfalfa
and Alfalfa Mixtures." Acreage continued to increase until it reached a
record high in 1957 that was nearly 3 1/2 times the 1919 area harvested.
Since the peak in 1957, acreage has remained relatively stable. Yields have
gradually increased over time with improved varieties; use of lime, phosphate,
and potash; and expansion of irrigation and improved cultural practices.

The NASS "All Other Hay" series dates back to the 1919 crop. It jis an
interesting and diverse category including all the hay crops not in the
"Alfalfa and Alfalfa mixtures" grouping. For example, hay from wild grasses,
oats, Clover, timothy, redtop, and bromegrass all fall into this series. The
total area harvested has generally declined throughout the period records have
been kept. The high was 66.2 million acres in 1922 and the low was 32.5
million acres in 1972. However, higher yields have largely offset the
declining area and the resulting production has shown less change.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-16 NASS, USDA




Crop area totaled 4,425 acres in September, virtually unchanged from
August, but 11 percent more than last September. Harvested area totaled 2,340
acres, down 1 percent from the previous month but nearly unchanged from
September 1987.

PECANS: The October 1 forecast for the pecan crop in the 11 estimating States
is 284 million pounds, in-shell basis, 8 percent higher than last
year's production and 4 percent above the 1986 crop.

The Georgia forecast is 115 million pounds, the same as the 1987 produc-
tion. September was a wet month with temperatures generally above average.
The pecan scab incident was reduced by dry conditions in the early summer.
Harvest is expected to begin the week of October 10. Alabama's forecast of
11.0 million pounds is 56 percent below last year. Above normal rainfall
during September helped bring soil moisture back to normal in many areas and
helped the condition of the pecan crop. The major producing area, however, is
projecting far less than a normal crop. Florida's estimate is 5.00 million
pounds, down 9 percent from last year. Louisiana's forecast jis 30.0 million
pounds, 58 percent above the 1987 crop. The pecan crop is rated in good
condition. Harvest has begun in some areas. The Mississippi crop is placed at
13.0 million pounds, 8 percent above last year. New Mexico pecans are
forecast at 26.0 million pounds, 4 percent above last season. Oklahoma's crop
is forecast at 27.0 million pounds, a 125 percent increase from last year. An
average to heavy nut set is expected. North. Carolina's pecan production is
forecast at 3.50 million pounds, a 75 percent increase from 1987. The South
Carolina forecast fs 5.00 million pounds, 47 percent above last season. The
Arkansas pecan forecast is 3.00 million pounds, more than double last season.
Texas is forecasting 45.0 million pounds, up 7 percent from 1987 production.
Harvest was just beginning in South Texas by October 1. Rainfall in the Cross
Timbers may still help nuts fill. The West Texas crop looks very good at this
time. Dry weather in central Texas has caused some losses. Quality will also
be down,

FILBERTS: Oregon and Washington filbert growers are expecting to harvest an

18.0 thousand ton crop in 1988. Harvest is beginning in Oregon.
More rains would make conditions better for quicker nut drop. Nut size and
weight are above 1987 averages.

ORANGES: The first production forecast of U.S. all oranges for the 1988-89

season is 217 million boxes, 10 percent more than last season and 20
percent above the 1986-87 season. The forecast for all Florida oranges is 152
million boxes, 10 percent more than last season's crop and 27 percent above
1986-87. Production of Florida early and mid-season varieties, at 89.0
million boxes, is 13 percent greater than last season and 38 percent above the
1986-87 crop. Florida Valencia production is expected to total 63.0 million
boxes, 6 percent greater than last season's crop and 17 percent above 1986-87
production.

California's 1988-89 all orange crop forecast, at 61.0 million boxes, is 8
percent greater than last season and 5 percent above the 1986-87 season. The
Navel crop for California is expected to total 35.0 million boxes, 11 percent
more than the 1987-88 crop and 1 percent above 1986-87. California's Valencia
forecast, at 26.0 million boxes, is 4 percent greater than last season's crop
and 11 percent above the crop harvested in 1986-87. The Arizona all orange
crop fs expected to tota? 2.40 mit?ion boxes, 33 percent more than last season
but 11 percent less than the 1986-87 crop. The Texas all orange crop is
expected to total 1.65 million boxes, compared with 1.43 million boxes last
season.

The October 1 U.S. all orange production forecast has deviated from the
final production by an average of 22.7 million boxes over the past 10 seasons,
ranging from a low ‘of 4.25 million boxes in 1978-79 to a high of 53.0 million
boxes in the 1983-84 season. The large difference between the October 1, 1983
forecast and the final production for the 1983-84 season was the result of the
late December 1983 freeze losses to the Florida and Texas citrus crops.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1988-89 forecast of all Frozen

Concentrated Orange Juice for Florida
is 1.52 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast is projected to
estimate the final yield that will be reported by the Florida Citrus Processors
Association at the end of the season. The 1987-88 yield for atl fruit used in
FCOJ was a record high 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-14 NASS, USDA


SUNFLOWER

STATE AREA HARVESTED
AND :
VARIETAL : : IND
TYPES 1987 1/ : 1988
— 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
OIL :
MINN : 79 42 1,450 189,000 114,550
N DAK : 1,180 1,160 1,520 1,613,250 1,793,600
S OAK : 293 246 1,300 506,460 380,900
TEX : W 9 1,200 36,400 13,200
us : 1,563 1,457 1,473 2,345,110 2,302,250
NON-OIL :
MINN H 3 9 1,500 37,200 13,500
N DAK : 195 220 1,450 290,440 282,750
S_DAK 5 4 1,210 3,000 6,050
TEX 3 9 1,200 3,600
us 212 242 1,443 330,640 305,900
ALL
MINN 88 $1 1,455 1,350 226,200 128,050 68,850
N DAK 1,375 1,380 1,510 800 1,903,690 2,076,350 1,104,000
S DAK 298 250 1,298 800 509,460 386,950 200,000
TEX 14 18 1,200 1,400 36,400 16,800 25,200
us 3 1,775 1,699 1,469 823 2,675,750 2,608,150 1,398,050

1/ REVISED.

AREA PLANTED, SUNFLOWER 1987 1/

VARIETAL TYPE

STATE

NON-OIL

1,000 ACRES
MINN : 80 10 90

2 : : 3 : I
1987 : 1988 : 1987 : 1988 1986 : 1987 : 1988
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
ALA : 220.0 238.0 2,115 2,700 494,940 465,300 642,600
FLA 3 83.0 87.0 2,600 2,700 233,160 215,800 234,900
GA : 630.0 690.0 2,500 2,800 1,632,575 1,575,000 1,932,000
N MEX 2/ : 12.4 13.0 2,700 2,700 28,700 33,480 35,100
NC : 148.0 153.0 2,650 2,950 440,440 392,200 451,350
OKLA : 98.0 105.0 2,270 2,000 184,500 222,460 210,000
sc 3 13.0 14.0 2,400 2,500 25,530 31,200 35,000
TEX : 252.0 250.0 1,750 1,700 385,000 441,000 425,000

VA 3 90.0 94.0 2,700 3,100 275,900 243,000 291,400

1,546.4 1,644.0 2,341 2,590 3,700,745 3,619,440 4,257,350
1/ ESTIMATES COMPRISED OF QUOTA AND NON-QUOTA PEANUTS. =ssssSsSsSsSTMS~STMS
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-24 NASS, USDA


SEPTEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

During the first part of the month, the far West was plagued with severe
heat while Hurricane Florence and a stationary front caused heavy rain along
the central Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. Extensive flooding occurred
across northern Florida. At mid-month, massive Hurricane Gilbert devastated
Jamaica, the Yucatan, and northeastern Mexico before its remnants brought
beneficial moisture into the central United States. At month's end, sub-
stantial rains drenched the eastern portions of the central and southern
Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley. Ory harvest weather prevailed over
the Corn Belt. (Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility.)

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

Winter wheat seeding was 53 percent finished by October 2, 11 points
behind 1987 but 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Seeding was ahead of
normal in 10 of the 20 major producing states. Insufficient soil moisture
delayed seeding in the central and northern Plains States early in September.
By month's end, seeding progress was near or ahead of normal in most areas.

Nebraska's wheat was 85 percent seeded, 6 points behind normal. Sixty
percent of the crop was emerged, 10 points behind. the average. Emergence in
early September was slowed by lack of rain.

Kansas wheat seeding was progressing at a normal pace and was 55% finished.
Twenty percent of the crop was emerged, 5 points behind the average. Rain in
mid-September improved seeding and germination conditions.

Seeding in Oklahoma was 45 percent finished, 5 points ahead of normal.
Crop emergence, at 20 percent, was 5 points ahead of the average.

SEPTEMBER ROW CROP PROGRESS

Dry weather early in September accelerated crop development in the centra
and northern Plains States. Heavy rains slowed crop maturity in the Southeast.
Crop development lagged behind normal in the Ohio Valley. Rain in the central
and southeastern areas improved soil moisture conditions about mid-month.
Soil moisture in the central Plains was mostly short early in the month and
short to adequate by month’s end. Soil moisture in the South and East was
mostly adequate. Harvest was ahead of normal in the Central and Northern
Plains States. Crop maturity and harvest continued to lag behind normal in
most of the East.

Corn was 91 percent mature, 5 points behind 1987 but equal to the 5-year
average. Maturity was ahead of normal in the central and northern Plains
States but lagged far behind normal in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Harvest was 32 percent complete, 6 points behind 1987 but 10 points ahead of
normal. Harvest was far ahead of normal in Iowa, Kansas, and Minnesota.
Iowa's harvest was 50 percent finished, 33 points ahead of normal. Harvest
was 40 percent complete, 12 points ahead of normal in Illinois. Corn borers
damaged some corn in eastern Nebraska. Nebraska's harvest was 30 percent
complete, 18 points ahead of normal. Harvest was nearing completion in
Georgia and Texas.

By the end of September, 78 percent of the soybean acreage had reached the
leaf dropping stage, 5 points behind 1987 but 1 point ahead of normal.
Soybeans were just beginning to drop leaves in the Carolinas but were nearing
completion in the western Corn Belt. The percent of acreage dropping leaves
lYagged behind normal in Michigan, Ohio, and most of the South. Soybean
harvest was 29 percent finished, 9 points behind 1987 but 9 points ahead of
normal. Harvest was far ahead of normal in Iowa, Kansas, and Minnesota.
Iowa's harvest was 48 percent complete, 21 points ahead of the average.
Harvest was 50 percent complete, 13 points ahead of normal in Illinois.
Illinois producers harvested nearly one third of their soybean acreage during
the last week of September.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-4 NASS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY ~ YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

CORN FOR GRAIN Bu: (119.4 80.2 7,064,143 4,462,475 4,552,735
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN " : 69.9 60.1 740,869 540,067 541,357
RICE CWT 1/: 5,482 5,486 127,725 152,286 156,670
SOYBEANS FOR :

BEANS 2/ BU : 33.7 26.4 1,922,762 1,472,376 1,501,381
PEANUTS FOR NUTS LB : 2,347 2,590 3,619,440 4,326,300 4,257,350
SUNFLOWER 2/ " : 1,469 823 2,608,150 1,398,050
ALL COTTON BALE 1/: 706 605 14,759.9 14,709.0 14,714

UPLAND "Uft 702 600 14,475.3 14,313.4 14,3484

AMER-PIMA "— T/: 1,000 938 284.6 395.6 365.6
COTTONSEED TON H 5,769 5,749 5,751
ALL HAY " i 2.46 1.95 149,142 = 3/130,509 130,202

ALFALFA . : 3.32 2.68 84,554 3/69,487 69,581

ALL OTHER . 1.83 1.49 64,588 3/61,022 60,621
DRY EDIBLE BEANS CWT 1/: 1,540 1,38) 26,309 19,805 19,914
DRY EDIBLE PEAS "1/2/2 2,102 2,161 3,385 3,868
AUSTRIAN WINTER :

"W2fs 1,582 1,330 $22 133
LENTILS wee 1,263 1,259 1,794 894
TOBACCO 1 2,028 2,129 1,190,674 1,304,118 1,332,531
SUGARBEETS TON : 22.3 19.5 27,937 25,229 25,349
SUGARCANE FOR :

SUGAR AND SEED * 3 35.5 37.0 29,218 31,115 37,115
PASTURE AND :

RANGE FEED 4/ PCT : 79 60
APPLES. COMM'L LB : 10,542,600 3/8,073,100 8,134,100
GRAPES TON : 5,264.0 5,456.5 5,456.5
DRIED PRUNES z

(CALIF) " 2 228.0 160.0 160.0
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) . : 53.5 51.5 50.5
PECANS LB 2 262,200 273,000 283,500
FILBERTS TON: 21.8 18.0 18.0

2 1987-88 1988-89 1988-89
CITRUS FRUITS 5/ 2

ORANGES: BOX 3 197,740 217,050

LEMONS : 20,650 22,700
1/ YIELO IN POUNDS. 2/ 1987 REVISED. 3/ G1, 1988. 4/ PASTURE AND

RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1977-86 AVERAGE 1S 75 PERCENT.
5/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE
COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

INDICATED
1987 1988 1/

POTATOES

WINTER 2/ CWT 214 213 2,501 2,616

SPRING " 220 251 17,724 19,831

SUMMER . 228 218 22,797 19,800

FALL . 315 342,471

TOTAL . 301 385,493
HOPS LB 1,768 1,671 50,048 53,810
PEACHES. * 2,428,800 2,527,800
SWEET CHERRIES TON 210. 8
TART CHERRIES LB 358,500 206,500
PEARS TON 940. 798.1
APRICOTS ‘ON 115.0 100.8
NECTARINES (CALIF) TM 191.0 195.0
PLUMS (CALIF) 245.0 250.0
OLIVES (CALIF) " 67.5 85.0
PISTACHIO (CALIF) LB 33,100 95,000
ALMONDS (CALIF) " 660,000 580,000
WALNUTS a7. 200.0
Vv ESTIMATES CARRIED “FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1988 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 ASS NASS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT 1/

PRODUCTION : PRODUCTION
: BOXES 3 TON EQUIVALENT
CROP Pence enn een nn ne nnn ee nn ee ne ene ene een
AND : UTILIZED : INDICATED
STATE :

1987-88 : 1988-89

1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES EARLY MID
& NAVEL 3/t
ARIZ : 1,000 610 750 37 23 28
CALIF : 34,500 31,500 35,000 1,294 1,182 1,313
FLA : 65,800 78,500 89,000 2,961 3,532 4,005
TEX : 500 940 1,100 22 40 47
us > 101,800 111,550 125,850 4,314 4,777 5,393
ORANGES, VALENCIA
ARIZ : 1,700 1,200 1,650 64 45 62
CALIF : 23,400 25,000 26,000 878 937 975
FLA : 53,900 59,500 63,000 2,425 2,677 2,835
TEX : 375 490 550 16 21 23
us : 79,375 86,190 91,200 3,383 3,680 3,895
ALL ORANGES.
ARIZ H 2,700 1,810 2,400 107 68 90
CALIF : 57,900 56,500 61,000 2,172 2,119 2,288
FLA : 119,700 138,000 152,000 5,386 6,209 6,840
TEX : 875 1,430 7,650 38 61 70
us : 181,175 197,740 217,050 7,697 8,457 9,288
TEMPLES :
FLA 3,400 3,550 3,800 153 160 nm
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE
SEEDLESS r
FLA : 26,900 29,200 30,000 1,143 1,241 1,275
GRAPEFRUIT, COLORED
SEEDLESS :
FLA 20,000 21,900 24,500 850 930 1,047
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
FLA 2,900 2,750 2,500 123 WW7 106
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
ARIZ : 2,200 1,500 1,300 70 48 42
CALIF af:
DESERT : 4,300 4,200 3,900 137 135 125
OTHER AREAS: 5,000 4,700 168 158
TOTAL : 9,300 8,900 305 293
FLA : 49,800 53,850 57,000 2,116 2,288 2,422
TEX : 1,925 3,800 4,500 77 152 180
us : 63,225 68,050 2,568 2,781
TANGERINES
ARIZ : 700 450 550 26 7 21
CALIF : 2,230 2,090 1,800 83 78 68
FLA : 2,340 2,450 2,700 ing 117 128
US : 5,270 4,990 5,050 220 212 27
LEMONS :
ARIZ : 7,100 3,650 4,200 270 139 160
CALIF 3 21,500 17,000 18,500 817 646 703
us : 28,600 20,650 22,700 1,087 785 863
TANGELOS :
FLA 4,000 4,200 3,900 180 189 176

1/__THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH
YEAR HARVEST IS COMPLETED. 2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ-75,
FLA-90, TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ~64, CALIF OTHER-67, FLA-85,
TEX-80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS & TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95.
3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. EARLY AND
MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA ANO_ TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF
TANGERINES IN TEXAS. 4/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT “OTHER
AREAS” WILL BE AS OF APR 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1988 A-35 NASS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

STATE: : IND : IND: : : IND

1987: «1988 =: «+1987 : 1988: 1986 : 1987 : 1988
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 250 170 72.0 42.0 15,390 18,000 7,140
ARIZ 1/: 20 17 100.0 130.0 2,640 2,000 2,210
ARK 1/: 65 55 115.0 90.0 8,480 7,475 4,950
CALIF : 190 160 150.0 153.0 38,000 28,500 24,480
COLO 3 690 820 155.0 145.0 99,400 106,950 118,900
CONN 2/ :

DEL : 148 140 73.0 70.0 14,027 10,804 9,800
FLA W/ : 105 60 72.0 55.0 9,920 7,560 3,300
GA 3 610 500 84.0 65.0 42,340 51,240 32,500
IDAHO T/ : 50 60 130.0 135.0 7,800 6,500 8,100
TLL : 9,100 9,500 132.0 70.0 1,404,000 1,201,200 665,000
IND : 4,680 4,800 135.0 74.0 695,400 631,800 355,200
IOWA : 10,050 10,400 130.0 82.0 1,626,750 1,306,500 852,800
KANS : 1,180 1,150 120.0 115.0 181,560 141,600 132,250
ky : 1,140 1,050 104.0 65.0 139,840 118,560 68,250
LA Vi: 213 110 =-105.0 90.0 44,660 22,365 9,900
MAINE 2/ :

MD 3 460 430 78,0 56.0 42,340 35,880 24,080
MASS 2/ :

MICH : 1,950 1,600 95,0 65.0 257,250 185,250 104,000
MINN : 5,000 4,300 127.0 70.0 707,600 635,000 301,000
MISS 1/: 185 160 80.0 55.0 13,500 14,800 8,800
“0 2 2,150 1,900 113.0 70.0 280,720 242,950 133,000
MONT 1/ : 15 17, 105.0 110.0 1,495 1,575 1,870
NEBR : 6,200 6,600 131.0 118.0 896,000 812,200 778,800
NH 2/2:

NJ W/: 95 84 110.0 65.0 17,128 10,450 5,460
N MEX 1/ :: 49 51 155.0 155.0 8,250 7,595 7,905
NY : 510 500 109.0 85.0 61,380 55,590 42,500
NC : 1,150 930 60.0 85.0 93,840 69,000 79,050
N DAK : 500 280 93.0 40.0 49,290 46,500 11,200
OHTO : 3,020 2,900 120.0 74.0 476,160 362,400 214,600
OKLA 1/ : 56 60 107.0 95.0 5,220 5,992 5,700
OREG 1/: 24 15 165.0 170.0 4,800 3,960 2,550
Han 2 : 1,060 990 90.0 62.0 127,720 95,400 61,380
Sc : 375 340 78.0 55.0 21,160 29,250 18,700
S_DAK : 2,750 2,250 83.0 45.0 233,700 228,250 101,250
TENN z 580 520 91.0 65.0 56,980 52,780 33,800
TEX : 1,250 1,300 107.0 «7105.0 148,960 133,750 136,500
UTAH 2 : 20 22 140.0 «125.0 2,250 2,800 2,750
VT 3

VA 3 300 370 63.0 70.0 21,600 18,900 25,900
WASH 1/ : 80 80 170.0 170.0 20,400 13,600 13,600
WVA 1/3: 50 51 72.0 50.0 6,300 3,600 2,550
WIS : 2,800 1,950 118.0 70.0 365,800 330,400 136,500
WO l/: 47 41 111.0 «110.0 5,814 5,217 4,510
us : 59,167 56,733 119.4 80.2 8,249,364 7,064,143 4,552,735

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ NOT ESTIMATED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1988 A-21 NASS, USDA



7,000 ACRES 1,000 TONS

ALA : 700 750 2.10 2.00 1,120 1,470 1,500
ARIZ : 30 20 4.50 3.80 84 135 76
ARK : 950 925 1.70 1.40 1,840 1,615 1,295
CALIF : 520 580 2.50 2.50 1,500 1,300 1,450
COLO : 670 870 1.70 1.65 1,024 1,139 1,435
CONN 2/ : 67 64 2.15 2.00 152 144 128
DEL 2/ : 4 17 1.95 2.00 29 27 34
FLA 2/0: 275 270 2.90 2.90 676 798 783
GA : 600 600 2.20 2.20 901 1,320 1,320
TOAHO : 250 220 2.10 1.50 540 525 330
TLL : 430 930 2.20 1.60 1,081 946 1,488
IND : 350 700 2.30 1.20 836 805 840
TOWA : 650 1,000 2.30 1.50 1,920 1,495 1,500
KANS : 1,550 1,650 1.80 1.50 2,880 2,790 2,475
ky : 1,900 2,100 1.80 1.60 2,772 3,420 3,360
LA : 348 355 2.70 2.40 749 940 852
MAINE 2/ 192 185 1.95 1.85 394 374 342
MD : 150 145 2.15 2.30 261 323 334
MASS 2/  : 97 98 2.20 2.10 235 213 206
MICH : 320 650 1.90 1.50 703 608 975
MINN 3 925 1,750 2.00 1.50 2,070 1,850 2,625
MISS : 570 650 2.50 2.30 1,160 1,425 1,495
MO : 3,100 3,500 1.60 1.10 4,768 4,960 3,850
MONT : 900 950 1.50 1.00 1,330 1,350 950
NEBR : 1,750 2,450 1.20 1.10 2,730 2,100 2,695
NEV 3 270 260 1.30 1.10 392 351 286
NH 2/3 63 67 2.00 1.90 139 126 127
Nd 2/3 72 71 2.10 2.00 151 151 142
N MEX 2/° : 65 55 1.80 1.80 119 W7 99
NY : 1,300 1,325 2.05 1.95 2,772 2,665 2,583
NC : 410 420 1.60 1.70 513 656 714
N DAK : 1,350 1,350 1.30 0.80 2,170 1,755 1,080
OHTO : 725 950 2.40 1.70 1,606 1,740 1,615
OKLA : 1,800 1,850 1.70 1.40 2,790 3,060 2,590
OREG : 690 650 1.75 1.60 1,202 1,208 1,040
PA > 1,180 1,240 2.10 2.00 2,436 2,478 2,480
RI 2 : 5 6 2.20 2.20 4 u 13
Sc : 225 240 2.00 2.00 328 450 480
S DAK : 1,600 2,300 1.20 1.00 3,080 1,920 2,300
TENN : 1,450 1,500 1.60 1.40 1,792 2,320 2,100
TEX + 3,100 3,100 2.40 1.60 6,820 7,440 4,960
UTAH 2/ : 160 145 2.10 1.90 302 336 275
VT 2/3: 290 280 1.90 1.80 650 551 504
VA 1,200 1,180 1.50 1.50 1,200 1,800 1,770
WASH : 300 310 2.40 2.50 900 720 775
WVA : 550 550 1.40 1.10 576 770 605
WIS H 520 900 2.00 1.00 1,325 1,040 900
WYO : 630 650 1.35 1.30 945 851 845
US 35,263 40,828 1.83 1.48 63,977 64,588 60,621

1/ INCLUDES SET ASIDE AND CONSERVATION RESERVE ACRE THAT WERE RELEASED FOR
HAYING AND EXPECTED TO BE HARVESTED FOR HAY. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR
CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-27 NASS, USDA



SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

STATE : IND IND: : IND
1987 1/ 1988 :1987 1 1988; 1986 : 1987 1/ : 1988
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 480 560 16.5 23.0 14,030 7,920 12,880
ARK > 3,250 3,150 22.0 23.0 66,000 71,500 72,450
DEL : 235, 225 18.0 25.0 5,760 4,230 5,625
FLA 2/ 93 115 25.0 25.0 3,220 2,325 23875
GA : 780 850 20.0 25.0 13,940 15,600 21,250
ILL : 8,700 8,700 38.0 27.0 360,000 330,600 234,900
IND : 4,350 4,200 40.0 30.0 157,250 174,000 126,000
IOWA : 7,900 7,850 43.5 30.0 350,675 343,650 235,500
KANS : 2,110 2,100 32.0 23.0 58,290 67,520 48,300
ky : 960 950 25.0 27.0 35,840 24,000 25,650
LA : 1,650 1,670 23.5 25.0 35,000 38,775 41,750
MD : 410 455 22.5 25.0 10,530 9,225 113375
MICH : 1,090 1,210 35.0 28.0 28,830 38,150 33,880
MINN : 4,650 4,700 39.0 25.0 162,750 181,350 117,500
MISS > 2,450 2,200 19.5 20.0 41,650 47,775 44,000
Mo : 4,830 4,200 32.0 25.0 170,625 154,560 105,000
NEBR 2,350 2,300 35.8 30.0 93,100 83,425 69,000
NJ 2/2 99 103 31.0 27.0 3,276 3,069 2378
NC > 1,340 1,420 24.5 29.0 36,720 32,830 41,180
N DAK 2/. : 515 630 32.5 13.0 16,450 16,738 8,190
OHTO > 3,980 3,700 37.0 29.0 146,610 147,260 107,300
OKLA 2/ : 230 320 25.0 21.0 4,800 5,750 6,720
PA 2/ 165 205 34.0 29.0 5,425 5,610 5,945
Sc : 730 780 © 21.8 23.0 13,695 15,695 17,940
S DAK : 1,390 1,700 32.5 22.0 40,565 45,175 37,400
TENN : 1,250 1,340 23.0 24.0 35,500 28,750 32,160
TEX 3 150 235 28.0 28.0 4,370 4,200 6,580
VA : 520 550 21.0 27.0 13,680 10,920 143850
WIS as: 320 400 38.0 31.0 11,520 12,160 12,400
US 56,977 56,818 33.7 26.4 1,940,101 1,922,762

1/__ REVISED. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER
FORECAST

AREA PLANTED, SOYBEANS, 1/

1,000 ACRES

1,000 ACRES

ALA : 500 4,900
ARK : 3,300 2,400
DEL 240 100
FLA 95 1,400
GA 830 520
TLL 8,800 4,000
IND 4,400 240
IOWA 7,950 170
KANS 2,150 750
KY 990 1,400
LA 1,700 1,300
MD 420 170
MICH 1,100 550
MINN 330
MISS

57,955

1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-23 NASS, USDA



GRAPES

PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE : TOTAL 1/

1986

GRAPES TABLE TYPE

CALIF 7 620,000 510,000 650,000
GRAPES WINE TYPE :
CALIF : 2,105,000 1,950,000 2,050,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE 2/ 3/
CALIF : 2,045,000 2,200,000 2,250,000
ALL GRAPES :
ARIZ 4/: 23,000 31,000 27,500
ARK 4/: 6,000 5,000 7,000
CALIF : 4,770,000 4,660,000 4,950,000
GA 4/: 2,000 2,700 2,500
MICH : 32,000 60,000 55,000
MO 4/: 2,900 2,750 3,200
NY : 164,000 178,000 158,000
NC 4/: 1,500 1,800 2,200
OHTO 4s: 8,000 10,000 9,000
PA : 60,000 62,500 56,000
sc 4/: 500 700 1,100
WASH : 156,000 249,500 185,000
us : 5,225,900 5,263,950 5,456,500

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (
13,500; 1986-600. 2/ FRESH BASIS. 3/ EXCLUDES PRODUCTION FROM APPROXI-
MATELY 25,000 ACRES OF THOMPSON SEEDLESS VINEYARDS IN THE VOLUNTARY RAISIN
DIVERSION PROGRAM FOR 1988; 15,000 ACRES IN 1987; AND 50,000 ACRES IN 1986,
4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PRUNES AND PLUMS

PRODUCTION
CROP peeeee hecennnnen nen enn anne nnnnnee econ een e ne neneee
AND :
STATE detente nenen nen ece ne neen een nee IND
1986 1987 1988
: TONS
PRUNES (DRIED BASIS) :
CALIF : 99,000 228 ,000 160,000
PRUNES AND PLUMS :
TDAHO : 5,000 6,200 6,500
MICH : 11,000 16,000 11,000
OREG : 23,000 19,000 23,000
WASH : 9, 100 12,300 10,000
TOTAL 48,100 53,500 50,500

1/_ PRUNES AND PLUMS - INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(TONS): 1986 - OREG 4,000, 1987 - IDAHO 300, OREG 2,000, WASH 2,000.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A~36 NASS, USDA


18 18 2 3 6
20 18 4 3 4
380 350 85 70 70
65 60 7 6 5
40 50 10 VW 8)
25 30 4 4 5
35 40 10 10 5
50 45 1 2 4
55 58 9 8 10
115 135 23 20 25
75 75 50 40 40
15 25 3 2 8
200 250 45 50 55
55 60 10 8 10
90 100 13 10 12
150 160 35 30 35
175 130 125 165 90
50 40 5 5 5
VWs 150 49 20 30
20 15 5 4 3
85 100 18 18 22

“BUSHELS

24.0 25.0 42 72 150
33.0 31.0 136 99 124
22.0 27.0 1,785 1,540 1,890
24.0 28.0 210 144 140
27.0 30.0 280 297 330
35.0 30.0 144 140 150
27.0 26.0 210 270 130
36.0 26.0 28 72 104
31.0 29.0 297 248 290
32.0 26.0 713 640 650
30.0 23.0 1,600 1,200 920
18.0 32.0 60 36 256
23.0 25.0 1,035 1,150 1,375
29.0 31.0 310 232 310
30.0 33.0 429 300 396
24.0 26.0 $95 720 910
31.0 15.0 4,250 5,115 1,350
36.0 37.0 175 180 185
18.0 24.0 840 360 720
ORES > 40.0 30.0 30.0 200 120 90
PA : 35.0 35.0 36.0 630 630 792
sc H 17.0 22.0 24.0 391 528 720
S_DAK 3 37.0 36.0 25.0 4,440 5,040 2,250
TEX : 19.0 15.0 15.0 190 150
VA t 26.0 29.0 35.0 364 435 560
WIS. Hy 28.0 20.0 20.0 168 100 120
us > 28.8 29.0 24.8 19,522 19,818 15,062

1/ AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.

2/ REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-18 NASS, USDA


BARLEY: ACREAGE

AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED
STATE jenernnnnnewnn enna enna none nn nn nn ne nn nw en en nn enennnanenenennnnoeenene
1986 1987 2/: 1988 1986 =: 1987 2/: 1988
: 1,000 ACRES

ARIZ: 32 25 15 29 22 13
CALIF: 470 400 360 400 330 280
coo: 390 230 185 350 220 175
DEL: 55 55 35 50 52 30
IDAHO =: = 1,140 840 880 1,110 820 850
KANS 350 140 100 290 120 85
KY : 25 15 16 17 nN 14
MD : 90 100 80 82 89 69
MICH: 60 55 50 55 50 38
MINN : 1,200 1,200 1,250 1,000 870 720
MONT : 2,400 2,300 1,800 2,180 2,100 1,250
NEBR: 150 90 70 135 75 60
NEV: 36 36 34 33 33 31
NJ: 29 20 16 20 15 9
N MEX 22 15 if 16 Ni 7
NC oo: 53 46 48 45 40 42
NDAK : 3,600 3,000 2,600 3,450 2,900 2,000
OKLA: 50 35 25 35 25 20
OREGG ss: 375 250 225 365 220 200
PA : 70 65 60 65 60 55
SC oo: 24 15 17 21 13 4
S DAK 930 870 700 855 850 450
TEX 70 65 35 35 30 18
UTAH 165 152 139 152 142 125
VA 90 100 95 72 78 75
WASH 920 660 580 900 645 560
WIS 95 110 100 85 88 75
WYO 168 157 150 160 148 140
US 13,059 11,046 9,676 12,007 10,057 7,395

1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.
2/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-10 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE - CONTINUED

AREA HARVESTED : YIELD =: ~—~ PRODUCTION

CLASS AND TYPE Dotter nnn een nnn nnn rn nn enn nnn nnn nn nnn nnn nnn ene ee
H : IND : IND: : IND
1987 : 1988 1987 : 1988 : 1987 : 1988
ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
CLASS 3B, DARK
AIR-CURED
TYPE 35, ONE SUCKER
BELT :
KY : 1,900 2,000 1,940 2,050 3,686 4,100
TENN : 480 480 2,000 1,900 960 912
US : 2,380 2,480 1,952 2,021 4,646 5,012
TYPE 36, GREEN RIVER
BELT :
KY : 1,100 1,200 2,000 2,150 2,200 2,580
TYPE 37, VA SUN-CURED :
BELT :
VA : 130 130 1,000 1,200 130 156

TOTAL 35-37 : 3,610 3,810 1,932 2,034 6,976 7,748
CLASS 4, CIGAR FILLER :
TYPE 41, PA SEEDLEAF :

PA : 7,000 6,500 1,900 1,950 13,300 12,675
TYPE 42-44 QHIO-MIAMI :

VALLEY TYPES :

OHIO 2/ 3 50 20 1,440 1,500 72 30
TOTAL 41-44 2/ : 7,050 6,520 1,897 1,949 13,372 12,705
CLASS 5, CIGAR BINDER :
CLASS 5A, CONN VALLEY :

BINDER

TYPE 51, CONN VALLEY

BROADLEAF :

CONN : 930 850 1,700 1,600 1,581 1,360
MASS : 110 100 1,800 1,850 198 185
US : 1,040 950 1,711 1,626 1,779 1,545

CLASS 58, WIS BINDER :

TYPE 54, SOUTHERN WIS :
WIS : 2,700 2,000 2,100 1,900 5,670 3,800

TYPE 55, NORTHERN WIS :
WIS

: 1,500 1,100 1,800 1,750 2,700 1,925
TOTAL 54-55 : 4,200 3,100 1,993 1,847 8,370 5,725
TOTAL 51-55 > «5,240 &,050 1,937 1,795 10,149 7,270
CLASS 6, CIGAR WRAPPER :
TYPE 61, CONN VALLEY
SHADE-GROWN :
CONN : 870 960 1,305 1,550 1,135 1,488
MASS 3 410 420 1,110 1,550 455 651
US : 1,280 1,380 1,242 1,550 1,590 2,139
ALL CIGAR TYPES 3
TOTAL 41-61 : 13,570 11,950 1,850 1,851 25,111 22,114
ALL TOBACCO : §87,140 626,020 2,028 2,129 1,190,674 1,332,531

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ INCLUDES BINDER TYPES GROWN IN OHIO.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-33 NASS, USDA


ORY EDIBLE PEAS 1/

AREA HARVESTED

1,000 CWT

IDAHO 1,265 1,386
WASH 2,120 2,482
US 3,385 3,868

Y/ EXCLUDES BOTH WRINKLED SEED PEAS AND AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS. 2/ REVISED.

AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS

IDAHO : 38.0 8.0 30.0 7.0
OREG : 4.0 5.0 3.0 3.0

1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-30 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTAR PRODUCTION

METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN
RICE

SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/

04 179,437,500 113,352,090 115,644,800
77 18,818,940 13,718,330 13,751,100
15 5,793,510 6,907,580 7,106,430
78 $2,329,010 40,071,510 40,860,890
9
92

PEANUTS FOR NUTS 2.62 . 1,641,750 1,962,380 1,931,100
SUNFLOWER 1/ 1.65 . 1,183,040 634,140
ALL COTTON +79 3,213,590 3,202,510 3,203,600

UPLAND +79 3,151,630 3,116,380 3,124,000

AMER-PIMA 1.12 61,960 86,130 79,600
COTTONSEED 3 5,233,550 5,21 5,410 5,217,220
ALL HAY : §.50 4.37 135,299,3502/118,395,780 118,117,270

ALFALFA : 7.44 6.01 76,706,100 2/63,037,550 63,122,820

ALL OTHER : 4.11 3.33 58,593,250 2/55,358.230 54,994,450
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1.73 1.65 1,193,360 898,340 903,280
ORY EDIBLE PEAS 1/ 2.36 2.42 153,540 175,450
AUSTRIAN WINTER

PEAS 1/ 1,77 1.49 23,680 6,030
LENTILS 1/ : 1.42 1.41 81,370 40,550
TOBACCO : 2.27 2.39 540,080 591,540 604,430
SUGARBEETS > 50.04 43.78 25,344,020 22,887,360 22,996,230
SUGARCANE FOR :

SUGAR AND SEED 2 79.53 82.92 26,506,120 28,227,050 28,227,050
APPLES, COMM'L 4,782,040 2/3,661,900 3,689,570
GRAPES 4,775,370 4,950,050 4,950,050
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) 206,840 145,150 145,150
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) : 48,530 46,720 45,810
PECANS : 118,930 128,590
FILBERTS H 19,780 16,330 16,330

1987-88 1988-89 1988-89

CITRUS FRUITS 3/
ORANGES 7,672,060 8,425,930
LEMONS 712,140 782,900

1/1987 REVISED. 2/ AUG 1, 1988, 3/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE
FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION
ee TNDICATED INDICATED

INDICATED

1988 1/ 1987 : 1988 1/
METRIC TONS

POTATOES :

WINTER 2/ 1 23.98 23.83 113,440 118,660

SPRING 1 24.62 28.14 803,950 899,520

SUMMER 2 25.55 24.44 1,034,050 898,110

FALL 2 35.33 15,534,220

TOTAL 2 33.78 17,485,660
HOPS : 1,98 1.87 22,700 24,410
PEACHES : 1,101,690 1,146,590
SWEET CHERRIES 3 191,230 153,130
TART CHERRIES : 162,610 93,670
PEARS : 852,980 724,020
APRICOTS : 104,330 91,440
NECTARINES (CALIF) : 173,270 176,900
PLUMS (CALIF) : 222,260 226,800
OLIVES (CALIF) : 61,230 77,110
PISTACHIO NUTS (CALIF) : 15,010 43,090
ALMONDS (CALIF) t 299,370 263,080
WALNUTS (CALIF) 224,070 181,440

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-7 NASS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED : AREA HARVESTED 1/
CROP : : INDICATED
1987 1988 : 1987 =: 1988
HECTARES
CORN : 26,590,560 27,324,260 23,944,290 22,959,280
SORGHUM : 4,776,960 4,230,220 4,291,330 3,646,660
RICE : 951,830 1,166,720 942,930 1,155,790
SOYBEANS 2/ : 23,453,810 23,807,910 23,058,020 22,993,680
PEANUTS : 634,310 679,880 625,810 665,310
SUNFLOWER 2/ : 730,470 738,560 718,320 687,570
ALL COTTON > 4,211,690 4,920,550 4,061,180 4,721,480
UPLAND : 4,155,880 4,840,500 4,005,900 4,645,800
AMER-PIMA : 55,810 80,050 55,280 75,680
ALL HAY : 24,584,100 27,026,410
ALFALFA : 10,313,520 10,503,730
ALL OTHER : 14,270,580 16,522,680
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 728,680 628,240 691,370 583,560
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 2/ : 65,960 73,250 65, 160 72,440
AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS 2/ : 17,000 5,260 13,350 4,050
LENTILS 2/ : 57,870 29,140 57,470 28,730
TOBACCO : 237,610 253,340
SUGARBEETS : 512,220 534,190 506,430 525,210
SUGARCANE FOR :
SUGAR AND SEED : 333,300 340,430

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.£., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/ 1987 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP : : : : INDICATED
1987 : i988 1/ : «1987 : 1988 1/
HECTARES
FLAXSEED : 190,200 117,360 187,370 96,320
POTATOES :
WINTER 2/ : 4,820 5,060 4,730 4,980
SPRING : 33,390 32,420 32,660 31,970
SUMMER : 41,640 38,730 40,470 36,750
FALL : 446,860 438,480 439,700 428,400
TOTAL 2/ : 526,710 514,690 517,560 502,100
SWEETPOTATOES : 39,130 38,000 37,760 36,660
HOPS : 11,450 13,030

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1988 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-6 NASS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield
surveys taken about October 1. The yield surveys include mailed reports from
farmers for all crops and actual field observations and measurements for corn,
soybeans, cotton, and some fruit and nut crops. Farmers provided appraisals
of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops on their farms and
for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot
observations, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These surveys
are subject to sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common to all
surveys. More importantly, the production forecasts are subject to change due
to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured currently
but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by expressing
the deviations between the October 1 production forecasts and the final
estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1968-87 20-year period; the square root of this
average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current
forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for
grain production forecast is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out
of 3 that the current production forecast of 4,553 million bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately
173 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approximately 300 million
ushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 191 million bushels, ranging
from 30 million to 538 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 7 times and above 3 times. This does not imply that the
October 3 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A~19 NASS, USDA



OATS: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

PRODUCTION
1987 1/

33.0

69.0

2,200
1,365
2,070
14,400
6,390
39,060
10,800
252
2,600
825
17,010
43, 350
5,000
4,140
21,240
216
12,920
2,200
38,500
12,160
4,400
7,600
16,120
1,008
46,200
8,400
864
460
2,145
500
52,700
2,700

386, 356

1,000 BUSHELS

1,250
1,260
2,800
2,700
1,650
2,700
13,110
6,365
35,750
6,510
364
2,850
988
17,100
45,600
3,420
6,050
17,640
260
12,000
3,540
36,400
17,500
2,280
5,200
14,820
1,683
52,900
9,900
966
329
2,310
400
43,200
2,205

374,000

.
2,925
6,000

13,000
2,928

20,000
9,000

966
636
2,479
288

19,720

1,550

210,766

H YIELD
2 1986 1987 1/
BUSHELS
ALA : 40.0 50.0
ARK : 67.0 70.0
CALIF : 70.0 70.0
COLO : 55.0 54.0
GA : 39.0 55.0
IDAHO =: =669.0 75.0
ILL : 72.0 69.0
. IND : «71.0 67.0
1OWA : 62.0 55.0
KANS : 54.0 42.0
ky : 42.0 52.0
MAINE : 65.0 75.0
MD : 55.0 52.0
MICH : 63.0 57.0
MINN : 51.0 57.0
MO : 50.0 38.0
MONT : 46.0 55.0
NEBR : §9.0 49.0
NJ : 54.0 52.0
NY : 68.0 60.0
NC : 40.0 59.0
N DAK : 55.0 52.0
OHIO : 76.0 70.0
OKLA > 44.0 38.0
OREG : 95.0 80.0
PA : 62.0 57.0
SC. : 36.0 51.0
S DAI > 44.0 46.0
TEX : 42.0 45.0
UTAH : 72.0 69.0
VA : 46.0 47.0
WASH : 65.0 66.0
WVA >, 60.0 50.0
WIS —  : 62.0 54.0
wyo > 50.0 49.0
US > 66.3 54.0
1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1988

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA


AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION 1/

1,000 ACRE
UPLAND 3
ALA : 333.0 375.0 572 486 330.0 380.0
ARIZ : 289.0 349.0 1,410 91,293 675.0 940.0
ARK H 550.0 670.0 786 738 602.0 1,030.0
CALIF : 1,140.0 1,335.0 1,259 1,061 2,245.0 2,950.0
FLA 3/ : 29.0 28.0 646 600 28.0 35.0
A 7 245.0 320.0 662 503 185.0 335.0
KANS 3/ 9 9 480 533 7 1.0
LA 3 600.0 615.0 782 718 673.0 920.0
MISS 3 1,010.0 1,180.0 829 753° 1,190.0 1,850.0
MO : 189.0 218.0 838 661 196.0 300.0
N MEX : 62.0 66.0 689 684 62.0 94.0
nc : 95.0 123.0 495 527 109.0 135.0
OKLA : 400.0 410.0 415 340 210.0 290.0
sc H 119.0 142.0 428 456 87.0 106.0 135.0
TENN : 435.0 545.0 700 572 396.0 634.0 650.0
TEX : 4,400.0 5,100.0 506 405 2,535.0 4,635.0 4,300.0
vA 3/3 1.8 3.0 373 544 1.5 1.4 3.4
Us > 9,898.7 11,479.9 702 600 9,525.2 14,475.3 14,348.4
AMER=PIMA
ARIZ : 90.8 129.7 1,126 1,036 148.3 213.0 280.0
CALIF 5 9 1.8 1,173 960 a) 2.2 3.6
N MEX : 13.9 16.0 642 660 16.6 18.6 22.0
TEX : 31.0 39.5 787 729 41.0 50.8 60.0
us + 136.6 187.0 1,000 938 205.9 284.6 365.6
ALL z
ALA : 333.0 375.0 572 486 330.0 397.0 380.0
ARIZ : 379.8 478.7 1,342 1,223 823.3 1,062.0 1,220.0
ARK : 550.0 670.0 786 738 602.0 901.0 1,030.0
CALIF z 1,140.9 1,336.8 1,258 1,061 2,245.0 2,991.2 2,953.6
FLA 3/ 3: 23.0 28.0 646 600 28.0 39.0 35.0
A : 245.0 320.0 662 503 185.0 338.0 335.0
KANS 3/ fs) 9 480 533 7 . 1.0
LA : 600.0 615.0 782 718 673.0 977.0 920.0
MISS : 1,010.0 1,180.0 829 753 1,190.0 1,745.0
MO : 189.0 218.0 838 661 196.0 330.0
N MEX : 75.9 82.0 680 679 78.6 107.6
NC : 95.0 123.0 495 §27 109.0 98.0
OKLA z 400.0 410.0 415 340 210.0 346.0 290.0
sc 2 119.0 142.0 428 456 87.0 106.0 135.0
TENN : 435.0 $45.0 700 572 396.0 634.0 650.0
TEX : 4,431.0 5,139.5 508 407 2,576.0 4,685.8 4,360.0
VA 3/ 1.8 3.0 373 544 1.5 1.4 3.4
us 10,035.33 11,666.9 706 605 9,731.1 14,759.9 14,714.0

1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED. 2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
COTTONSEED

PRODUCTION

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-25 NASS, USDA


Cc Met United States.
al ent of
r 0) p ae Agriculture
. Fact Finding ‘
Production waar fariutural
Board
Washington, D.C.

RELEASED: October 12, 1988
3:00 P.M. ET

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production is forecast at 4.55 billion bushels, up 2 percent
from last month, but 36 percent below last year's crop.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, up 2 percent from
September 1, but 22 percent below 1987.

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 14.7 million bales, slightly below the
1987 crop but slightly above the September 1 estimate.

ALL ORANGE production is forecast at 217 million boxes, 10 percent above last
season and 20 percent more than the 1986-87 season.

ALL TOBACCO production is forecast at 1.33 billion pounds, up 2 percent from
the September 1 forecast and 12 percent higher than last year's production.

PEANUT production is forecast at 4.26 billion pounds, 18 percent above last
year but down 2 percent from the September 1 forecast.

HREKERERIEREEIKIRRIRRERIRRIA EER IAAI IA IA ERISA ARITA AERIAARIERIRAIEERAIAR IIA,

NOTICE
Small Grains revised 1987 and preliminary 1988 Annual Summary.

Revised acreage, yield, and production for soybeans, sunflower, dry
edible peas, Austrian winter peas, and lentils for 1987.

+e Oe
+ + + tO

Revised acreage, yield, and production for winter potatoes for 1988.
RAKE RIKKRIIGE SIRI IAI IARI RIA IRIAN IAA III AI AIA IIIA AIA AIIAAIIAI

CrPr 2-2 (10-88) ' For Information Call: (202) - 447-2127



ORY BEANS: The 1988 dry bean crop is forecast at 19.9 million cwt, down 24

percent from last year and 13 percent below 1986. Acreage for
harvest is set at 1.44 million acres, down 16 percent from last year and 4
percent below 1986. The average yield expectation improved during September
in the absence of heavy rains and killing frosts. The growing season ended
the first week of October, however, as cold temperatures swept across the
Northern States. Average yields are pegged at 1,381 pounds per acre, up 17
pounds from September 1, but 159 pounds below last year and 150 pounds below
1986.

Harvest is drawing to close or finished in all? dry bean States except
Michigan, California, and Washington. Freezing temperatures in early October
damaged immature fields in Minnesota and Michigan, leading to loss of acreage
and lower clean-out yields. About one -fourth of Michigan acreage needed more
maturity ranging from a few days to two weeks. Some acreage will be lost
outright, while other fields will suffer quality damage. Harvest is Jagging
in Washington, where threshing is 65 percent complete and in California where
harvest is underway.

In other dry bean States, September weather allowed successful harvest
completion with yields turning out better than expected in Colorado, Wyoming,
and New York. Early yields were also higher than expected in Michigan.

DRY PEAS: Production of dry edible peas is estimated at 3.87 million cwt in

1988, a gain of 14 percent over last year and 21 percent above
1986. Harvested acreage is set at 179 thousand acres, up 1] percent from a
year ago and equal to two years ago. The average yield came in at 2,161
pounds per acre, up 3 percent from last year and 21 percent above 1986.

LENTILS: Production of lentils is set at 894 thousand cwt in 1988, down 50

percent from a year ago. Acreage was cut in half leaving only 71.0
thousand acres harvested this year. The average yield at 1,259 pounds per
acre was slightly below last year, but 5 percent above 1986.

AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS: Growers produced 133 thousand cwt of Austrian Winter

peas in 1988, a drop of 75 percent from last year and
70 percent short of the 1986 production. Acreage was cut 70 percent from last
year with harvest of only 10.0 thousand acres in 1988. The average yield was
1,330 pounds per acre, down 16 percent from last year and 7 percent below
1986. Northwest acreage for harvest follows a sharp acreage reduction in
Idaho.

WINTER POTATOES; REVISED: Winter potato production totaled 2.62 million cwt

in 1988, up 5 percent from 1987 but 13 percent
below 1986. Harvested acreage was 12.3 thousand acres, up 5 percent from 1987
and the same as 1986. The average yield was 213 cwt per acre, down 1 cwt from
last year but 30 cwt short of the 1986 yield. The revised estimate is 7
percent below the season's final forecast in March.

TOBACCO: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 1.33 billion pounds, 2

percent above the September 1 forecast and 12 percent greater than
the 1987 total. Higher yields and increased acreage from 1987 account for the
larger production. Yield is expected to average 2,129 pounds per acre, up 28
pounds from the outlook on September 1 and 101 pounds above the 1987 average
yield,

Flue-cured production is expected to total 798 million pounds, 2 percent
more than expected on September 1 and 15 percent more than the 1987 production.
Yield per acre is expected to average 2,219 pounds, up 18 pounds from last
month's forecast and 90 pounds above last year.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-10 NASS, USDA


ALL WHEAT: ACREAGE

AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED
STATE i eewnrnc nnn nn nnn wenn nnn nn nev ener e ron nnn nn ene nn oconenscnconsnencssenen=
2 1986 1987 2/ 1988: 1986 : 1987 2/: 1988
: 1,000 ACRES
ALA : 340 250 270 220 170 200
ARIZ 3 98 91 87 96 89 85
ARK : 885 930 1,120 815 840 1,070
CALIF : 730 620 560 675 567 519
COLO 3 3,360 3,160 2,550 2,955 2,555 2,347
DEL : 40 50 65 34 48 63
FLA : 120 80 75 100 60 55
GA 3 640 550 575 550 460 500
IDAHO: 1,430 1,210 1,220 1,310 1,140 1,150
ILL : 1,300 1,100 1,300 820 950 1,250
IND : 900 750 840 700 600 700
IOWA : 90 90 60 60 30 35
KANS : 11,500 10,700 10,200 10,200 9,900 9,500
KY : 440 500 550 270 330 380
LA : 240 240 300 210 170 270
MD : 160 175 180 145 165 170
MICH H 750 450 650 680 400 620
MINN : 2,965 2,580 2,520 2,814 2,519 2,200
MISS H 250 400 500 200 350 450
MO 3 1,050 900 1,650 570 770 1,550
MONT : 5,015 4,895 4,730 4,760 4,690 3,830
NEBR 3 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,000 1,950 2,000
NEV : 25 24 22 22 21 19
NJ : 40 30 35 30 27 31
N MEX : 740 660 §20 460 340 290
NY : 165 90 95 155 80 90
NC 2 525 490 510 460 440 480
N DAK: 9,620 9,300 9,450 9,380 9,135 7,380
OHIO : 1,150 850 1,000 1,050 800 920
OKLA 7,400 7,200 7,000 5,200 4,800 4,800
OREG 1,070 845 800 1,025 810 755
PA 230 190 75 220 185 170
sc : 325 290 320 300 275 305
S DAK 4,065 3,660 3,650 3,840 3,528 2,638
TENN 430 440 530 325 350 430
TEX 8,100 6,800 6,300 4,800 3,600 3,200
UTAH 270 212 184 258 199 178
VA : 220 275 230 170 215 200
WASH 2,570 2,100 2,170 2,410 2,015 2,060
W VA : i 13 Vv 9 n 9
WIS 3 160 115 150 148 88 133
wy0 349 329 271 277 288 238
US 72,068 65,834 65,725 60,723 55,960 53,270
1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.
2/ REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1988 A-12 NASS, USDA


BARLEY: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

PRODUCTION
STATE j------------------ nro nnn nnn nn nnn n nee n nce e eee eee ec ee nees
1986 : 1987 1/: 1988 1986 1987 1/ 1988
BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ARIZ: 100.0 99.0 104.0 2,900 2,178 1,352
CALIF : 59.0 54.0 61.0 23,600 173820 17,080
COLO 8: ~~ «60.0 66.0 64.0 21,000 14,520 11,200
DEL :—«61.0 62.0 72.0 3,050 3,224 - 2,160
IDAHO : 65.0 75.0 60.0 725150 61,500 51,000
KANS : 36.0 40.0 35.0 10,440 4,800 2,975
KY : 31.0 67.0 77.0 527 737 1,078
MD : 60.0 67.0 69.0 4,920 5,963 4,761
MICH : 59.0 55.0 32.0 3,245 2,750 1,216
MINN : 55.0 57.0 32.0 55,000 49,590 22,720
MONT =: 39.0 45.0 23.0 85,020 94,500 28,750
NEBR : 40.0 36.0 32.0 5,400 2,700 1,920
NEV: —-90.0 90.0 80.0 2,970 2,970 2,480
Nd : 62.0 60.0 67.0 15240 900 603
NMEX : 65.0 70.0 65.0 1,040 770 455
NC : 36.0 62.0 65.0 1,620 2,480 2,730
NDAK : 51.0 48.0 21.0 175,950 139,200 42,000
OKLA: (36.0 30.0 48.0 1,260 750 960
OREG =: 57.0 70.0 74.0 20,805 15,400 14,800
PA : 60.0 57.0 66.0 3,900 3,420 3,630
SC: 28.0 49.0 60.0 588 637 840
S DAK : 42.0 40.0 18.0 35,910 34,000 . 8,100
TEX  : 50.0 40.0 30.0 1,750 1,200 540
UTAH =: 76.0 83.0 75.0 11,552 11,786 9,375
VA : 55.0 66.0 71.0 3,960 5,148 5,325
WASH =: 50.0 55.0 60.0 45,000 35,475 33,600
WIS: «57.0 54.0 34.0 4,845 4,752 2,550
WYO: «68.0 70.0 60.0 ‘10,880 10,360 8,400
US : 50.8 52.7 38.2 610,522 529,530 282,600
1/ REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1988 A-11 NASS, USDA



SORGHUM: Production is now forecast at 541 million bushels, slightly more than

the September 1 forecast, but still 27 percent less than 1987's pro-
duction level. Area for grain is unchanged from the previous forecast at 9.01
million acres, down 15 percent from last year. Average yield prospects, at
60.1 bushels per acre, are up 0.2 bushels from September, but 9.8 bushels per
acre less than 1987's record average.

As of October 2, 42 percent of the acreage for grain had been harvested in
the 11 major producing States. This equaled last year’s pace and is 6 points
ahead of the 5-year average.

Harvest progress in Arkansas trails the average by 10 points at 72 percent
complete. Yield prospects are high in Louisiana as the crop condition steadily
improved during September.

September precipitation was generally below normal in Kansas. Harvest was
underway early in September, advancing to 25 percent completion by October 2.
Harvest in Nebraska is about a week ahead of normal. Oklahoma's sorghum is
maturing about two weeks behind average, however, the crop was rated in mostly
good condition on October 1. Harvest is just starting in the Texas Low
Plains. Warmer temperatures are needed in the Plains for the crop to reach
maturity.

Only 2 percent of Colorado's grain sorghum was harvested by October 2,
compared to the 15 percent average. Limited harvest has started in eastern
New Mexico; most producers are waiting for a killing frost to begin harvest.
Yield prospects are excellent for both irrigated and dryland acreage.

RICE: The 1988 rice production is forecast at 157 million hundredweight, up 23

percent from the 128 million hundredweight produced last year and up 3
percent from September 1, 1988. This would be the largest rice crop since
1981.

Yield is expected to average 5,486 pounds per acre, up 4 pounds from last
year. In Mississippi, yields are ‘expected to be 200 pounds above last year,
while they are expected to be 300 pounds below last year in Missouri. Yield
estimates are up from last month in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and
exas.

At the end of September rice harvest was 63 percent finished, 19 point
behind the comparable period last year and 9 points behind average for the
date. Harvest of the first crop was complete in Texas. Arkansas harvest was
53 percent complete, compared with 90 percent in 1987 and 73 percent normally.
Harvest of California's crop was in full swing by October 1 at 30 percent
complete, which is slightly ahead of last year and average.

SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, up 2 percent from

the September 1 forecast but 22 percent lower than 1987. Yield is
forecast at 26.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from September 1 but 7.3
bushels Jower than last year. If realized, this will be the lowest yield per
acre since 1976.

In September, growing conditions were good in the southern and Atlantic
Coast States. ‘North Carolina's yield per acre improved 3 bushels from last
month while 2 bushel increases are forecast for Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia,
Louisiana, and South Carolina. Delaware, Mississippi, and Virginia show a 1
bushel increase in yield from September 1.

The average yield for the Midwest is practically unchanged from last month
as Iowa's yield increased 1 bushel and Illinois decreased 1 bushel per acre.
Minnesota and South Dakota show a two bushel increase while the Kansas yield
per acre is down 2 bushels from September 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-6 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE

CLASS AND TYPE

CLASS 1, FLUE-CURED
TYPE 11, OLD AND
MIOOLE BELTS

NC 80,
VA : 28,
us : 108,
TYPE 12, EASTERN NC :
BELT 3
Nc : 107,
TYPE 13, NC BORDER & :
SC BELT :
NC 30,
Sc 42,
us 72,
TYPE 14, GA-FLA BELT
FLA : 5,
GA 1 32,
US : 37,
TOTAL 11-14 2 324,
CLASS 2, FIRE~CURED 3
TYPE 21, VA BELT t
VA > 2,
TYPE 22, EASTERN
DISTRICT :
KY H 2,
TENN : 5,
US : 8,
TYPE 23, WESTERN
DISTRICT :
KY : 2,
TENN 3
us H 3,
TOTAL 21-23 13,
CLASS 3, AIR-CURED
CLASS 3A, LIGHT
AIR-CURED
TYPE 37, BURLEY
IND : 5,
KY : 140,
Mo o1/ 3 Y,
NC : 7,
OHIO tT,
TENN > 43,
VA 3 8,
WVA 1s : 1,
us : 215,
TYPE 32, SOUTHERN MD
BELT t
MO : dt,
PA > 4,
US : 15,
TOTAL 31-32 : 231,

SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE A-33,

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1988

ACRES
000 92,000
000 32,000
000 124,000
000 137,000
000 32,000
000 §=644,000
000 76,000
600 6,500
000 36,000
600 42,500
600 359,500
600 2,400
700 2,800
500 5,500
200 8,300
600 2,600
460 460
060 3,060
860 13,760
400 5,600
000 145,000
700 2,100
900 8,500
300 8,200
000 =©©43,000
700 9,200
800 1,900
800 223,500
700 10,000
900 3,500
700 13,500
500 237,000
A-32

PRODUCTION

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
1,970 2,100 157,600 193,200
2,085 2,200 58,380 70,400
2,000 2,126 215,980 263,600
2,170 2,300 232,190 269,100
2,090 2,225 62,700 71,200
2,240 2,200 94,080 96,800
2,178 2,211 156,780 168,000
2,465 2,450 13,804 15,925
2,255 2,250 72,160 81,000
2,286 2,28) 85,964 96,925
2,129 2,219 690,914 797,625
1,000 1,300 2,600 3,120
2,070 2,100 5,589 5,880
2,170 2,000 31,935 11,000
2,137 2,034 17,524 16,880
2,450 2,150 6,370 5,590
2,350 1,900 1,081 874
2,435 2,112 7,451 6,464
1,990 1,923 27,575 26,464
2,050 1,950 11,070 10,920
2,050 2,200 287,000 319,000
2,070 1,700 2519 3,570
1,785 1,800 14,102 15,300
1,640 1,700 11,972 13,940
1,705 1,800 73,315 77,400
1,815 1,750 15,790 16,100
1,440 1,250 2,592 2,375
1,943 2,052 419,360 458,605
1,140 1,350 13,338 13,500
1,850 1,850 7,400 6,475
1,321 1,480 20,738 19,975
1,901 2,019 440,098 478,580

CONTINUED

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA


North Carolina's harvest was 91% complete on October 2, compared with 90%
a year earlier and the average of 89%. Harvest of the South Carolina crop was
nearly complete by mid-September, slightly behind the usual pace. Florida
auctions, scheduled to close September 29th, remained open into early October.

Burley output is expected to reach 459 million pounds, an increase of 2
percent from the September 1 prospects and 9 percent above the production of a
year earlier. The increase from a month ago reflects improvement in yield
Prospects. The change from a year ago is the combined result of increased
acreage and higher yields. A yield of 2,052 pounds per acre is expected
compared to 1,943 pounds last year. Acreage is up 4 percent.

The Kentucky Burley crop benefited from improved moisture. Cutting was 92
percent complete as of October 2. Quality looks good with favorable drying
and curing weather. A few producers have begun stripping. Tennessee growers
report adequate moisture for proper curing.

Fire-cured production is forecast at 26.5 million pounds, a decline of 4
percent from a year ago. Acreage is off 1 percent and yield down 67 pounds
per acre,

Southern Maryland type 32 production is projected to reach 20.0 million
pounds, up 4 percent from the September 1 forecast but down 4 percent from
1987. Compared to a year earlier, acreage is down 14 percent but yield is up
159 pounds to 1,480 pounds per acre.

Dark air-cured tobacco production is expected to total 7.75 million
pounds, 11 percent more than in 1987. The increase is the combined result of
a 6 percent acreage increase and higher yields.

Production of all cigar-type tobacco is estimated at 22.1 million pounds,
off 12 percent from the previous year's output. Cigar filler declined 5
percent and binder dropped 28 percent but wrapper production rose 35 percent.

SUGARBEETS: The 25.3 million ton sugarbeet production forecast is fractionally

above the September 1 forecast but down 9 percent from last
year's production. The decrease from a year ago reflects lower yields which
were only partly offset by higher acreage. The acreage expected to be
harvested is up 4 percent from 1987. An average yield of 19.5 tons per acre
is expected, compared with 22.3 tons in 1987.

In California, yield outlook diminished as the effect of virus yellows and
this summer's hot weather becoming more apparent. Sucrose content may also be
affected.

In the Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota, lifting began at
the end of September, later than last year's early start but near normal.

Harvest. in Idaho is running slightly behind last year. Outlook is for
yields to average a half ton higher than expected a month ago.

Michigan growers started digging the end of September or first of
October. Moisture is adequate. Warm, sunny days with cool nights should
Promote tonnage and increase sugar content.

Nebraska grower's have started harvesting. Wyoming growers have harvested
about a fifth of the crop. Montana harvest was 15 percent complete on October
1. Harvest was also underway in Colorado.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 31.1

million tons, the same as the September 1 forecast, but 6 percent
more than the 1987 crop. Compared with last year, the higher production is
the combined result of increases in both acreage and yield. An average yield
of 37.0 tons per acre is expected. This compares with 35.5 tons a year ago.
Area for harvest, at 841 thousand acres, is 2 percent more than the area
harvested in 1987.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B~11 NASS, USDA



WINTER POTATOES

AREA HARVESTED

CALIF
FLA

TOTAL

CALIF
FLA

TOTAL

STATI

ALA
ARIZ
ARK
CALIF
COLO
CONN
DEL
FLA
GA
IDAHO
ILL
IND
TOWA
KANS
ky
LA
MAINE
MD
MASS
MICH
MINN
MISS
MO
MONT
NEBR

STATE

E:

AVERAGE
1977-86

79

AREA PLANTED
1988 1/

1987

1988 1/

235
200

214

: 198
PERC

67
83
69
69
8)
83
52
80
65
55
75
67
89
87
56
79

1,000 ACRES

CWT 1,000 CWT
230 1,081
200 1,420
213 2,501

: 1977
ENT

AVERAGE :
~86 : 1987

1,196
1,420

2,616

: 1988

PERCENT
66 56
88 gt
91 83
90 99
88 75
72 82
76 26
67 75
91 60
67 64
80 68
85 90
73 74
79 39.
75 75
85 50
69 53
85 88
81 7
65 67
69 65
80 45
85 49
79 60

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER;

SEVERE DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1988

POOR. TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64;

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

A-31

NASS, USDA


AREA PLANTED 1/

1987 2/ : 1988

1,000 ACRES

ALA H 60 45 35
ARK 43 22 40
CALIF 360 380 365
COLO 90 100 110
GA 60 55 80
IDAHO: 60 65 70
ILL : 1,400 2,100 1,400
IND 3 400 600 350
IOWA : 2,500 4,200 2,100
KANS : 280 240 225
KY : 35 27 30
MAINE : 47 42 42
MD : 19 21 20
MICH H 330 350 300
MINN 3 1,600 2,100 1,700
MO. : 190 180 120
MONT : 200 235 210
NEBR 3 760 810 650
NJ : 6 6 6
NY : 230 250 180
NC : 100 105 100
N DAK : 1,050 1,050 1,100
OHIO : 260 350 300
OKLA 3 200 160 140
OREG : 120 90 95
PA : 290 290 290
sc : 55 60 85
S DAK: 1,500 1,400 1,400
TEX H 1,000 1,100 1,100
UTAH H 27 28 32
VA 3 40 35 35
WASH : 70 75 80
WVA : 7 13 10
WIS 3 1,200 1,300 1,050
wyo 5

US > 14,691 17,959 13,927

1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED PRECEDING FALL.

2/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1988 A-8

360
200

200

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA


ALA 1/ 40
ARIZ I/ W
ARK 405
CALIF 1/ 20
COLO 230
GA Vy 5 60
ILL ; 140
KANS 3,750
KY V/ 3 26
LA : 172
MISS 145
MO H 700
NEBR 1,300
N MEX 140
NC V/ 45
OKLA 410
Sc VW 3 1
S_DAK 270
TENN 75
TEX 2,650

AREA HARVESTED

~
nN
SS0SS990000900900000

BUSHELS

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

45.0
85.0
68.0
92.0
42.0
43.0
65.0
60.0
50.0
64.0
54.0
71.0
70.0
60.0
45.0
41.0
34.0
32.0
70.0
60.0

60.1

213,750
938,124

PRODUCTION

1,000 BUSHELS

1,920
990
29,160
1,800
9,890
2,400
12,040
273,750
1,820
12,384
9,425
59,500
109,200
7,980
1,935
18,860
$55
14,310
6,000
166,950

740,869

1,125
340
23,460
1,472
10,920
1,935
4,550
195,000
550
7,360
7,020
30,530
94,500
7,800
2,925
14,760
340
8,320
2,450
126,000

541,357

V/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
RICE

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

STATE
1987
1,000 ACRES ~~" POUNDS "7,000 CWT
ARK 1,010.0 1,170.0 5,250 5,250 54,060 53,025 61,425
CALIF 367.0 420.0 7,100 7,100 27,727 26,057 29820
LA : 420-0 521.0 4.550 4,550 19,380 19,110 23,706
MISS 198.0 270.0 5,100 5,300 10,692 10,098 14.310
MO 1/ 66.0 77:0 53400 5,100 32434 33564 35927
TEX 269.0 398.0 5,900 5,900 18,063 15,871 23,482
us 2,330.0 2,856.0 5,482 5,486 133,356 127,725 156,670
17 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
RICE PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES
YEAR LONG GRAIN MEOIUM GRAIN SHORT GRAIN ALL
1,000 CWT ° °
1986 96,773 32,239 4,344 133,356
1987 88,912 34,996 3,817 127,725
1988 1/:: 115,085 38,571 3,014 156,670

1/__ INDICATED AUGUST 1, 1988, RICE CLASS FORECASTS ARE BASEO ON A FIVE YEAR
AVERAGE OF CLASS PERCENTAGES. THE CLASS PERCENTAGES ARE ADJUSTED AS DATA
BECOME AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON.

CROP PRODUCTION,

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988

NASS, USDA




SMALL GRAINS

OATS: Production of oats in 1988 is estimated at 211 million bushles, 44 per-

cent below the 1987 crop, and smaller than any crop since estimates
were first made in 1866. The area harvested at 5.39 million acres is down 22
percent from last year.

The yield for grain averaged 39.1 bushels per acre, down 14.9 bushels from
last year's yield of 54.0 bushels. Seeded area totaled 13.9 million acres in
1988, down 22 percent from 1987.

Planting of the oat crop in the major producing north-central States was
completed ahead of normal as a result of the abnormally dry months of April
and May. The extreme drought conditions during June and July caused heat and
Moisture stress in these States. The drought conditions forced early maturity
and decreased yield potential. As a result of the drought, Iowa was the
leading oat producing State surpassing the Dakota's and Minnesota. Production
in many Southeastern States was up sharply from the drought reduced levels of
1987.

BARLEY: Barley production in 1988 is estimated at 283 million bushels, 47 per-

cent below last year's crop of 530 million bushels. This year's
production was the lowest since the 1953 crop, when 247 million bushels were
produced. | Average yield per acre is 38.2 bushels, down 14.5 bushels from the
987 yield.

The area harvested for grain in 1988 totaled 7.40 million acres, down 26
percent from last year.

Barley seeding in the Dakota's, Minnesota, and Montana was completed ahead
of normal due to unseasonably dry conditions during April and May. Record
high temperatures in June caused rapid plant development, but extreme drought
conditions stressed plants. Harvest in these States started early and was
completed 2 to 3 weeks ahead of normal. Idaho had a more normal growing
season and was the number one barley producing State this year.

ALL WHEAT: Production for 1988 is estimated at 1.81 billion bushels-the lowest

jin 10 years. The production estimate is fractionally higher than
the last forecast, but is down 14 percent from 1987. A total of 53.3 million
acres were combined for grain this year. This is up 1 percent from the
September 1 forecast, but down 5 percent from last season to the lowest level
since 1972. Yields averaged 34.0 bushels per acre, 0.2 bushels less than
September 1 and down 3.7 bushels from 1987.

WINTER WHEAT: Production is estimated at 1.56 billion bushels virtually un-

changed from both 1987 and the August 1 forecast. Growers
averaged 39.2 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels from 1987, but still the
fourth highest on record. Harvested area is 39.8 million acres, up 1 percent
from last year.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-1 NASS, USDA



Harvest of the 1988 winter wheat crop wrapped up by early September.
Seventeen States set or equaled record high yields, including the entire
Southeast. Declines were recorded in the central and northern Plains and most
of the Corn Belt.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: The drought of 1988 hit other spring wheat hard, reducing

yields to the lowest since 1961, taken from the smallest
area for grain since 1972, resulting in a production estimate of 205 million
bushels - the lowest since 1969. The estimate is a little lower than the
September 1 forecast, but is down a whopping 54 percent from 1987's production.

Harvested acreage is estimated at 10.5 million acres, 2 percent more than
was forecast September 1, but down 21 percent from a year ago. Yields
averaged 19.4 bushels per acre in the 12 States, 14.3 bushels per acre less
than in 1987. Colorado and Wyoming were the only States recording yields
higher than in 1987.

Average yields in the Dakota's, Minnesota, and Montana were less than half
of the 32.0 bushels per acre average of 1987. Growers in the Pacific
forthwest averaged 58.3 bushels per acre compared to 66.4 bushels per acre in

187.

DURUM WHEAT: This year's production is estimated at 46.4 million bushels, the

lowest level since 1961. The estimate is off 6 percent from the
September 1 forecast and is down 50 percent from 1987. Drought in the northern
Ourum States cut 1988's average yield to 15.7 bushels per acre, down a full
bushel from the last forecast and down 12.5 bushels per acre from 1987. Area
for grain, estimated at 2.95 million acres, is unchanged from the last
forecast but down 10 percent from last year.

Harvest in the desert durum areas of Arizona an* California wrapped up by
mid-July. The two-State area averaged 90.9 bushels per acre, up 3.1 bushels
from last season. Durum harvest in the northern areas was virtually complete
by September 1. Yields averaged just 12.8 bushels per acre in the 4 States.
The 1987 average was 26.3 bushels per acre.

RYE: Production in 1988, at 15.1 million bushels, is 24 percent below 1987

output and the lowest level since 1976. Area harvested dropped to a
record low 607 thousand acres and is 11 percent below last year. Yield per
acre averaged 24.8 bushels in 1988, compared with the 1987 average of 29.0
bushels per acre.

South Dakota's harvest was two weeks ahead of normal due to drought.
Record high temperatures during head filling limited yield prospects. Crop
development in North Dakota also was ahead of normal. In the Southeast, the
crop was harvested in most areas by mid-July and a record high yield was
established in Georgia.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-~2 NASS, USDA


A large number of tegume species are also included in the "All Other Hay"
group. These include a number of different types of true clovers such as red
clover, alsike clover, white clover, ladino, and persian clover. Also, such
varying legumes as sweetclover, lespedeza, soybeans, birdsfoot trefoil, and
vetches, are grown for hay.

The grass family includes most of the plant species important to the
agricultural industry including wheat, barley, rye, oats, corn, sorghum, and
sugarcane. Many of these same crops contribute to the pasture, hay, and
roughage fed to livestock. However, a large number of other grass species are
used primarily to feed livestock as hay or pasture. This list includes the
bromegrasses, fescues, bluegrasses, orchardgrass, timothy, red top, bentgrass,
buffalo grass, the grama's, canary grass, bluestems, sudangrass, Johnsongrass,
and Indiangrass.

With the wide variety of plant species, the various preservation methods
and the alternative uses, it is important to define hay. NASS uses the
following official definition: "Hay production consists of grasses, small
grains, and legumes dehydrated and/or cured for use as animal feed. Hay must
be fully cured before utilization except when used for dehydration. After
curing, hay may be pelletized, chopped, mixed with other ingredients for
feeding or fed directly to livestock without further processing. Hay may be
baled or stored loose in stacks or shelter. Quantity of hay production is
determined by the cured weight at the time it is hauled from the field, or if
stored at or in the field, the cured weight at the time of such storage.
Crops for dehydration should be included in hay production on an equivalent
cured weight basis. Hay production excludes silage, green chop, haylage, and
other forms of crops that are not fully cured. Small grain straw, other
plants harvested for non-feed purposes, and corn and sorghum fodder or forage
are not included in hay production.”

Much of the hay produced annually is consumed before the next crop is
harvested. However, ‘'need' does not always match ‘supply’. Consequently,
varying quantities are carried over. The supply of hay is vital to farmers
and ranchers in determining the quantity of livestock that can be fed through
the winter. Consequently, farm stocks of hay are measured twice a year. This
has usually been done on May 1 and January 1. However, the January 1 date was
changed to December 1 in 1986 in order to utilize an improved survey procedure.

At various times during the history of hay estimates, 12 different classi-
fication have been used. Hay falling in many of these categories are not
produced nation wide but are grown in areas in which they are better adapted.
These various groupings and the years in which statistical series were
maintained are shown in a table below.

The drought and dust bowl years of the 1930's set record lows for the
yield and production of hay. Both the lowest yield and lowest total
production for "Wild" "Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures", "Clover Timothy",
"Grain", "Sweetclover", "All Other", and "All" Hay were recorded in 1934.
During the 73 years that "All Tame Hay" was estimated, the lowest yield of
record was in 1895. The long time trend to higher yields is reflected in the
fact that the record high yields for most of the hay categories occurred
either in recent years or near the end of the time that records were
maintained. Two very notable exceptions to this are the record high yield for
wild hay set in 1909 and for all tame hay achieved in 1916. The acreage,
yield, and production for the current series is shown in the charts below.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER. 1988 B-17 NASS, USDA



AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE: > IND : IND: : IND
: 1987 3 1988 1987 : 1988 : 1986 1987 : 1988
1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS

ARIZ : 160 160 7.80 7.80 1,178 1,248 1,248
ARK 1/ 35 25 3.00 2.00 105 105 50
CALIF : 1,150 1,100 6.70 6.70 7,128 7,705 7,370
COLO : 830 780 3.50 3.60 2,618 2,905 2,808
CONN V/ i: 21 19 2.60 2.50 57 55 48
DEL l/ : 9 8 2.75 3.25 21 25 26
IDAHO : 1,020 960 3.90 3.70 4,180 3,978 3,552
ILL : 570 570 3.90 2.50 2,583 2,223 1,425
IND : 380 430 3.80 2.50 1,400 1,444 1,075
IOWA > 1,450 2,400 3.75 2.40 6,080 5,438 5,760
KANS : 850 850 3.80 3.00 3,510 3,230 2,550
KY : 260 270 3.30 2.90 816 858 783
LA Yoo: 12 10 2.80 2.80 32 34 28
MAINE Tf 24 22 2.25 2.20 54 54 48
TMD Vo: 85 80 3.75 2.40 248 319 192
MASS T/  : 30 30 2.60 2.50 90 78 75
MICH : 1,180 1,300 3.20 2.60 5,040 3,776 3,380
MINN : 1,700 2,400 3.50 2.10 7,605 5,950 5,040
MO : 420 400 2.90 2.20 1,260 1,218 880
MONT : 1,300 950 2.20 1.90 2,990 2,860 1,805
NEBR : 1,250 1,250 3.50 3.10 4,658 4,375 3,875
NEV : 245 250 4.20 4.00 984 1,029 1,000
NH Wo: 22 20 2.50 2.40 59 55 48
NJ Wo: 40 39 3.40 3.20 146 136 125
N MEX : 240 220 5.10 5.20 1,200 1,224 1,144
NY : 930 905 2.80 2.50 2,636 2,604 2,262
NC Vo: 25 30 2.80 2.75 60 70 83
N DAK : 1,600 950 1.90 0.80 3,255 3,040 760
OKIO H 725 725 3.70 3.00 2,701 2,683 2,175
OKLA : 410 410 3.30 2.90 1,505 1,353 1,189
OREG : 430 415 4.20 4.20 1,932 1,806 1,743
PA : 850 840 3.20 3.00 2,688 2,720 2,520
RI Vo: 3 2 2.70 2.60 9 8 5
S_DAK : 2,350 2,300 2.20 1.50 6,250 5,170 3,450
TENN Tf : 120 100 2.70 2.40 300 324 240
TEX : 140 150 3.50 3.70 640 490 555
UTAH : 465 480 4.10 4.00 1,833 1,907 1,920
VT Wve: 120 115 2.50 2.40 288 300 276
VA Vos 124 120 2.80 2.70 264 347 324
WASH : 460 490 4.30 4.20 1,974 1,978 2,058
WVA Vf: 80 70 2.80 2.30 225 224 161
WIS : 2,800 2,750 2.80 1.50 9,450 7,840 4,125
Wyo : 570 560 2.40 2.50 1,500 1,368 1,400
US : 25,485 25,955 3.32 2.68 91,552 84,554 69,581

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-28 NASS, USDA


PAGE
BARLEY - ANNUAL . A-10
OATS - ANNUAL . A- 8
RYE ~ ANNUAL .. 7 A-18
US SUMMARY - ANNUAL A- 2

WHEAT, ALL - ANNUAL ... 7 A-12
WHEAT, BY CLASSES - ANNUAL . A-16
WHEAT, DURUM - ANNUAL ..... . A-16
WHEAT, OTHER SPRING - ANNUAL . . A-17
WHEAT, WINTER - ANNUAL . + A-14
APPLES w.sseseeees . . . A-37
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE . A-29
CITRUS FRUIT .... A-35
CORN FOR GRAIN A-21
COTTON ....e A-25
COTTONSEED . A-25
CROP MOISTURE MAPS . . B- 3
GRAPES ..... . . A-36
HAY, ALL . A-26
HAY, ALFALF A-28
HAY, HISTORICAL B-16
HAY, OTHER .... A-27
INDEX NUMBERS . . sees A-20
FILBERTS cece eee cece eee e cece erect ete e eee eeeeeseees . A-37
LENTILS . . A-29
PAPAYAS ... A-38
PASTURE AND. RANGE FEED CONDITION A-3

PEANUTS FOR NUTS . A-24
PEAS, AUSTRIAN WINTE A-30
PEAS, ORY EDIBLE . A-30
PECANS ...----eee A-38
POTATOES .....4-- A-31
PRUNES, DRIED ... A-36
PRUNES AND PLUMS .,. A-36
RELIABILITY STATEMENT A-19
RICE .eceeceeeeee A-22
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN A-22
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS A-23
SUGARBEETS 2.22005 A-34
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR “AND SEED . A-34
SUNFLOWER .......ee . A-24
TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE. . A-32
TOBACCO BY STATES .. A-34
US SUMMARY A- 4

FEI III TOI III II IIIT TORII I TOT III I TIT II III IAI II TISAI ISA III IISA IA
NOTICE *

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The next issue of this report will be published November 9, 1988

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FICCI IORI II RII III III I ITI II IAI IIA III IIIS ISI HII ISS IIIA ISS AISI IISA IIS

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-20 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

CROP : : : : INDICATED
: 1987 : 1988 : 1987 : 1988

1,000 ACRES

CORN : 65,706 67,519 59, 167 56,733
SORGHUM : 11,804 10,453 10,604 9,011
RICE : 2,352 2,883 2,330 2,856.0
SOYBEANS 2/ : 57,955 58,830 56,977 56,818
PEANUTS : 1,567.4 1,680.0 1,546.4 1,644.0
SUNFLOWER 2/ : 1,805 1,825 1,775 1,699
ALL COTTON :  10,407.2 12,158.8 10,035.3 11,666.9
UPLAND :  10,269.3 11,961.0 9,898.7 11,479.9
AMER-PIMA : 137.9 197.8 136.6 187.0
ALL HAY : 60,748 66,783
ALFALFA : 25,485 25,955
ALL OTHER : 35,263 40,828
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 1,800.6 1,552.4 1,708.4 1,442.0
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 2/ : 163.0 181.0 161.0 179.0
AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS 2/_ : 42.0 13.0 33.0 10.0
LENTILS 2/ : 143.0 72.0 142.0 71.0
TOBACCO : 587.1 626.0
SUGARBEETS : 1,265.7 1,320.0 1,251.4 1,297.8
SUGARCANE FOR :
SUGAR AND SEED : 823.6 841.2

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/ 1987 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED H AREA HARVESTED

1,000 ACRES

FLAXSEED : 470 290 463 238

POTATOES :
WINTER 2/ 3 11.9 12.5 11.7 12.3
SPRING’ H 82.5 80.1 80.7 79.0
SUMMER : 102.9 95.7 100.0 90.8
FALL H 1,104.2 1,083.5 1,086.5 1,058.6
TOTAL 2/ : 1,301.5 1,271.8 1,278.9 1,240.7
SWEETPOTATOES 2 96.7 93.9 93.3 90.6
HOPS : 28.3 32.2

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1988 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-4 NASS, USDA


Bureau of the Census reports 2,277,170 running bales ginned prior to
October 1 compared with 3,195,927 for the same date last year and 2,406,969
bales in 1986.

COTTONSEED: Production for 1988, based on a three year average lint-seed

ratio, is forecast at 5.75 million tons, down slightly from the
1987 production of 5.77 million tons.

ALL COTTON PRODUCTION
1979 - 1988

MILLION BALES
se A BS

16/446.
iat

14.8---44.7}

NN
NNN N|
NS
1979 1980 1981 1982 1989 1984 1986 1986 1987 1988
YEAR

12
10

oN & @

ALL HAY: Production of all hay is forecast at 130 million tons. This is frac-

tionally lower than expected August 1? and 13 percent less than the
quantity produced in 1987. Area harvested is expected to total 66.8 million
acres, an increase of 10 percent from a year ago and the largest acreage since
1965. Average yield is forecast at 1.95 tons per acre compared with last
year's 2.46 and is the lowest average yield since 1966.

ALFALFA HAY: The production forecast of 69.6 million tons is fractionally

above the quantity expected August 1 but 18 percent below the
1987 total and is the smallest alfalfa hay crop since 1961. Decline from a
year earlier is the result of drought reduced yields which were only partially
offset by increased acreage. Area for harvest, at 26.0 million acres, is up 2
percent from a year ago. Average yield, forecast at 2.68 tons per acre, is
off 0.64 of a ton from the 1987 yield and is the lowest yield since 1976.

ALL OTHER HAY: Production of all other hay is forecast at 60.6 million tons,

1 percent below August 1 expectations and 6 percent Yess than
the 1987 output. Area for harvest, at 40.8 million acres, is up 16 percent
from a year earlier and is the highest acreage since 1958. Yield is expected
to average 1.48 tons per acre, down .03 of a ton from the August forecast, off
-35 of a ton from the previous year, and the lowest average yield since 1968.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-9 NASS, USDA



Harvest has been progressing ahead of normal in the Midwest except for
Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. The Southern and Eastern harvests are near or
behind the five year averages. Minnesota, Illinois, and Iowa had 66, 50, and
48 percents of their acres harvested, respectively, by October 2.

SOYBEAN REVISIONS - 1987 CROP: The 1987 revised soybean production is 1.92

billion bushels, up 18.1 million bushels from
the previous estimate. Harvested area is estimated at 57.0 million acres, an
increase of 540 thousand acres. Yield per acre was unchanged at 33.7 bushels
per acre. The revision is based on a re-evaluation of all survey data, end of
marketing year stock estimates, annual crushings, export data, and additional
survey data in some States.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
1979 - 1988

BILLION BUSHELS

1.99

1.6 N SS

0.6 NIN

Z
Ll
Gilli

IN
1979 1980 10681 1982 1983 1984 1986 1986 1987 1988

YEAR

PEANUTS: Production is forecast at 4.26 billion pounds, 18 percent above last
year but down 2 percent from the September 1 forecast. Harvested
area is estimated at 1.64 million acres, up 6 percent from 1987 and slightly
below the September 1 estimate. Yield is expected to average 2,590 pounds per
acre, 249 pounds above last year but 35 pounds below the September 1 forecast.

The Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina)
expect to produce 2.84 billion pounds, up 24 percent from 1987, but 1 percent
below September 1. Growers expect to harvest 1.03 thousand acres, 9 percent
above last year. Yield for the four-State area is expected to average 2,764
pounds per acre, 346 pounds above 1987, but down 23 pounds from the September 1
forecast. Harvesting was delayed during. the month because of wet conditions
in all States in the area. As of October 2, the peanut crop was 49 percent
dug and 30 percent combined in Alabama, 10 and 16 points behind average
respectively; 50 percent dug and 31 percent combined in Georgia, 20 and 25
percent behind average, respectively.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-7 NASS, USDA



1987 1/:

BUSHELS
ALA : 26.0 31.0
ARIZ : «94.0 95.0
ARK > 41.0 41.0
CALIF : 75.0 76.0
coLo > 32.0 37.5
DEL : 45.0 42.0
FLA : 31.0 30.0
GA : 28.0 31.0
IDAHO =: ~=661.0 75.0
TLL : 44.0 59.0
IND : 43.0 58.0
IOWA : «28.0 38.0
KANS : 33.0 37.0
kY : 33.0 49.0
LA 2: «35.0 31.0
MD : 47.0 49.0
MICH : 45.0 48.0
MINN 33.0 33.0
MISS : 31.0 36.0
MO 33.0 46.0
MONT 32.0 36.0
NEBR > 38.0 44.0
NEV 90.0 90.0
NJ 43.0 45.0
N MEX : 22.0 32.0
NY 49.0 47.0
NC 33.0 41.0
N DAK : 29.0 32.0
OHIO 46.0 58.0
OKLA 29.0 27.0
OREG 58.0 66.0
PA 44.0 43.0
sc 25.0 38.0
S DAK 32.0 34.0
TENN 33.0 41.0
TEX : 25.0 28.0
UTAH 36.0 43.0
VA > 41.0 45.0
WASH : 49.0 57.0
W VA 2 44.0 45.0
WIS 57.0 54.0
WYO : 30.0 31.0
US 35.2 39.8

1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1988

1988

43.0
98.0
53.0
83.0
33.0
52.0
37.0
43.0
66.0
54.0
50.0
30.0
34.0
54.0
41.0
53.0
42.0
24.0
46.0
50.0
19.0
36.0
80.0
45.0
24.0
55.0
50.0
13.0
50.0
36.0
71.0
53.0
46.0
17.0
50.0
28.0
36.0
52.0
62.0
46.0
40.0
22.0

39.2

1986

5,720
4,512
33,415
45,000
92,800
1,530
3,100
15,400
51,850
36,080
30,100
1,680
336,600
8,910
7,350
6,815
30,600
4,290
6,200
18,810
64,000
76,000
810
1,290
10,120
7,595
15,180
13,920
48, 300
150,800
53,940
9,680
7,500
57,600
10,725
120,000
8,100
6,970
102,900
_ 396
7,410
7,500

1,521,498

PRODUCTION

1987 1/

1,000 BUSHELS

5,270
4,180
34,440
38,760
93,750
2,016
1,800
14,260
60,000
56,050
34,800
1,140
366, 300
16,170
5,270
8,085
19,200
2,970
12,600
35,420
79,200
85,800
630
1,215
10,880
3,760
18,040
5,920
46,400
129,600
49,500
7,955
10,450
55,080
14,350
100,800
7,310
9,675
104,025
495
3,240
8,370

1,565,176

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

8,600
3,430
56,710
38,180
75,900
3,276
2,035
21,500
50,820
67,500
35,000
1,050
323,000
20,520
11,070
9,010
26,040
1,440
20,700
77,500
39,900
72,000
560
1,395
6,960
4,950
24,000
1,690
46,000
172,800
46,860
9,010
14,030
21,590
21,500
89,600
5,580
10,400
108,500
a4
5,000
4,950

1,560,970

NASS, USDA


US HAY: Yield, 1866 - 1987

Tons / Acre

Alfalfa & Alfalfa Mixtures

All Tame Hay

1 TAN gh
ost All Other Hay
op lepguusiengg engages eae

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

U S HAY: Production, 1866 - 1987

Million Tons

180
160; -
140
120/--

100}--~-

All Other Hay

HUN TRUEYOE UOEOTOTAUATOTETTOTOOUES- COTOUOUES” AUUUPOOT: AUDOATTES” DOUOTEEOS TESEROTOS~ VOEVOUE:  TOVOWODE., TOUT

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-19 NASS, USDA


OTHER SPRING WHEAT

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

1986 1987 1/ 1988 1986 1987 17: 1988
eey000 ACRES st—=“‘i‘=~S*~TMS
colo: 60 60 50 55 55 47
IDAHO: 480 380 400 460 340 380
MINN =: 2,750 2,450 2,400 2,650 2,400 2,100
MONT : 2,700 27400 27000 27600 2,300 1,500
NEV: 15 16 14 3 14 12
N DAK : 6,500 6,200 6,300 6,400 6,100 4,750
OREG.: 100 65 100 95 60 95
S DAK : 2,100 1,850 1,850 1,980 1,800 1,300
UTAH: 35 32 24 33 29 23
WASH: 320 200 320 310 190 310
WIS: 20 30 10 18 28 8
Woo: 29 29 21 27 18 B
US 13,489
"1986: 1987 1/: 1988 : 1986 1987 1/ 1988
: BUSHELS ~~~ StS 1,000 BUSHELS
colo: (66.0 66.0 70.0 3,630 3,630 3,290
IDAHO =: 65.0 75.0 65.0 295900 25,500 24,700
MINN 9: 3720 41.0 23.0 98,050 98,400 48,300
MONT =: 27.0 29.0 12.0 70,200 66,700 18,000
NEV: 70.0 75.0 65.0 910 1,050 780
NDAK : 31.0 31.0 15.0 198,400 189° 100 71,250
OREG) «=: 47.0 57.0 52.0 42465 37420 47940
SDAK : 25.0 27.0 12.0 493500 48,600 152600
UTAH: 50.0 57.0 54.0 1,650 15653 13242
WASH =: 45.0 54.0 52.0 13,980 10,260 16,120
WIS: 35.0 33.0 19.0 630 924 152
WO 8: 35.0 25.0 30.0 945 450 390
US: 32.3 33.7 19.4 ~~ «472,230 449,687 204,764
1/ REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1988 Awl7 NASS, USDA



SMALL GRAINS - ANNUAL SUMMARY
AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED, UNITED STATES
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED

AREA HARVESTED

1988

2,180,870
2,992,680
21,557,830
16,100,590
1,192,620
4,264,620

CROP tenn nn nan nn nn nnn nn nn nn nnn nnn enn nn nn nn nnn nn nn nn nnn nnn nn nee ene n nn ne
1986 1987 1/ 1988 1986 1987 1/:
3 HECTARES

OATS : 5,945,300 7,267,830 5,636,120 2,776,170 2,802,480
BARLEY : 5,284,850 4,470,210 3,915,780 4,859,110 4,069,970
ALL WHEAT : 29,165,200 26,642,360 26,598,240 24,573,990 22,646,460
WINTER : 21,839,100 19,753,320 19,748,870 17,484,630 15,923,340
DURUM : 1,211,640 1,352,070 1,390,510 1,164,290 1,326,980
OTH SPRING: 6,114,460 5,536,970 5,458,860 5,925,070 5,396,140
RYE 964,780 1,010,920 989,060 273,980 276,400

245,650

1/ REVISED.

YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE

PRODUCTION

CROP pennn onan nana nnnnnnnnnnn enna naan naan nner nnn nn ne nnc enn nnnenennnenans

1986

1987 1/ ::

1988

1986

1987 1/

1988

METRIC TONS

1.40
2.06
2.29
2.64
1.06
1.31
1.56

5,607,940
13,292,550
56,924,970
41,408, 390

2,664,590
12,851,990

495,880

5,428,600
11,529,150
57,356,200
42,597,110

2,520,620
12,238,470

503,400

3,059,260
6,152,890
49,317,140
42,482,640
1,261,740
5,572,760
382,590

OATS 2.02 1.94
BARLEY 2.74 2.83
ALL WHEAT : 2.32 2.53
WINTER > 2.37 2.68
DURUM 2 2.29 1.90
OTH SPRING: 2.17 2.27
RYE : 1.81 1.82
1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION,

OCTOBER 1988 A-3

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA


PECANS

PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE

1,000 POUNDS

IMPROVED Wf:
ALA : 9,600 13,750 7,700
ARK 3 900 800 1,860
FLA : 3,100 3,100 2,900
6A : 100,000 100,000 1003000
LA : 4,000 2,500 4,000
MISS : 4,500 8,000 8,000
N MEX : 275000 255000 26,000
NC 2s: 13800 13200 13700
OKLA : 15500 13000 2,000
sc : 35250 23300 3,400
TEX : 273000 22,000 30,000
us : 182,650 179,650 187,560
NATIVE & SEEDLING :
ALA : 6,400 11,250 3,300
ARK : 300 500 1,140
FLA : 2,400 2,400 2,100
GA : 20,000 15,000 15,000
LA 26,000 16,500 26,000
MISS 3,000 4,000 5,000
NC 2,200 800 1,800
OKLA 133500 11,000 25,000
$C 35250 1,100 1,600
TEX 13,000 20,000 15,000
us 90,050 82,550 95,940
PECANS
ALA 16,000 25,000 11,000
ARK 1,200 1,300 353000
FLA 5,500 5,500 5,000
GA 120,000 115,000 115,000
LA 30,000 19,000 30,000
MISS 73500 12,000 13,000
N MEX 273000 25,000 26,000
NC 43000 23000 33500
OKLA 155000 12,000 27,000
sc 6,500 33400 53000
TEX 40,000 42,000 45,000
us 262,200 283,500
1/ BUDDED, £0,OR TOPWORKED VARI .

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

FRESH PRODUCTION

HARVESTED

1,000 POUNDS

AUG 3,940 4,410 2,350 2,370 4,660 5,145
SEP. 5,550
oct

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
OCTOBER 1988 A-38 NASS, USDA


AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

STATE
: 1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
ALA : 700 750 2.10 2.00 1,120 1,470 1,500
ARIZ : 190 180 7.28 7.36 1,262 1,383 = 1,324
ARK : 985 950 1.75 1.42 1,985 = 3,720 1,345
CALIF > 1,670 1,680 5.39 5.25 8,628 9,005 8,820
COLO : 13500 1,650 2.70 2.57 3,642 4,044 43243
CONN 2/ 88 832.26 2.12 209 199 176
EL 2/ 23 25 2.26 «= 2.40 50 52 60
FLA 2/ 2 275 270 «2.90 2.90 676 798 783
GA > 600 600 2.20 2.20 901 1,320 1,320
IDAHO : 1,270 1,180 3.55 3.29 4,720 4,503 3,882
ILL : 1,000 1,500 3.17 1.94 3,664 3,169 2,913
IND : 7730 1,130 3.08 «1.69 «2,236 = 2,289 «1,915
TOMA : 2,100 3,400 3.30 2.14 8,000 6,933 7,260
KANS : 2,400 2,500 2.5) 2.01 6,390 6,020 5,025
KY : 2,160 2,370 1.98 1.75 3,588 4,278 4,143
LA : 360 365 2.71 2.4 781 974 880
MAINE 2/0: 216 207. «1.98 ~—«1.88 448 428 390
0) : 235 225 2.73 2.34 509 642 526
MASS 2/—: 127 128 2.29 2.20 325 291 281
MICH + 1,500 1,950 2.92 2.23 5,743 4,384 4,355
MINN : 23625 4,150 2.97 1.85 9,675 7,800 7,665
MISS : 570 650 2.50 2.30 1,160 1,425 1,495
MO : 3,520 3,900 1.76 1.21 6,028 6,178 4,730
MONT : 2,200 1,900 1.91 1.45 4,320 © 4,210 2,755
NEBR : 3,000 3,700 2.16 1.78 7,388 6,475 6,570
NEV : 515 510 2.68 «= «2.521376 = 1,380 1,286
NH2/ 85 8? = 2.13 2.01 198 18) 175
NJ2/: 12 1102.56 2.43 297 287 267
N MEX : 305 275 «4.404052 = 1,319 1,341 1,243
NY : 2,230 2,230 2.36 2.17 5,408 5,269 4,845
NC : 435 450 1.67 (1.77 573 726 797
N DAK : 2,950 2,300 1.63 0.80 5,425 4,795 1,840
OKIO : 13450 13675 3.05 2.26 4,307 «= 4,423 = 3,790
OKLA : 2,210 2,260 2.00 1.67 4,295 4,413 3,779
OREG : 13120 1,065 2.69 2.61 3,134 3,014 2,783
PA : 2,030 2,080 2.56 2.40 5,124 5,198 5,000
R12 : 8 8 2.38 2.25 23 19 18
SC : 225 240 2.00 2.00 328 450 480
S DAK : 3,950 4,600 1.79 1.25 9,330 7,090 5,750
TENN : 1,570 1,600 12.68 1.46 2,092 2,644 2,340
TEX : 3,240 3,250 2.45 1.70 7,460 7,930 5,515
UTAH : 625 625 3.59 3.51 2,135 © -2,243= 2,195
VI 2/ : 410 395 2,08 ~=—«1.97 938 851 780
VA 1 1,324 1,300 1.62 1.61 1,464 2,147, 2,094
WASH : 760 800 3.55 3.54 2,874 = 2,698» 2,833
WVA : 630 620. 1.58 1.24 801 994 766
WIS > 3,320 3,650 2.67 1.38 10,775 8,880  §,025
WO : 15200 1,210 «1.851686 = 2,445) 24219 2.245
US : 60,748 66,783 2.46 1.95 155,529 149,142 130,202

1/ INCLUDES SET ASIDE AND CONSERVATION RESERVE ACRES THAT WERE RELEASED FOR
HAYING AND EXPECTED TO BE HARVESTEO FOR HAY. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR
CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-26 NASS, USDA


SMALL GRAINS - ANNUAL SUMMARY
AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED, UNITED STATES
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

BARLEY 10,057 7,395
ALL WHEAT 55,960 53,270
WINTER 39,347 39,785
DURUM 3 3,279 2,947
OTH SPRING : 13,334 10,538
RYE 3 683 607

1/ REVISED.

YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES
(DOMESTIC UNITSS

YIELD PER “ACRE :
CROP AND UNIT ---
BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
OATS 54.0 39.1 386,356 374,000 210,766
BARLEY $2.7 38.2 610,522 529,530 282,600
ALL WHEAT 37.7 34.0 2,091,635 2,107,480 1,812,095
WINTER 39.8 39.2 1,521,498 1,565,176 1,560,970
DURUM 28.2 15.7 97,907 92,617 46,361
OTH SPRING 33.7 19.4 472,230 449,687 204,764
RYE 29.0 24.8 19,522 19,818 15,062

1/ REVISED.

The cRoP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with
related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Agricultural Statistics Board which consists of
commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

APPROVED: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD:
Rich D. Allen, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

Robert L. Addison, James A. Heep,
dack L. Aschwege, Van B. Johnson,
David J. Aune, Thomas E. Kurtz,
Donald M. Bay, Archie J. Olson,
Robert P. Bellinghausen, Lawrence H. Pope,

Q Thomas R. Birkett, Darwin E. Ransom,
dames E. Brewster, Carroll G. Rock,
Arvin R. Budge, Vaughn L. Siegenthaler,
William N. Dowdy, James L. Smith,
S. Radley Edwards, Eldon J. Thiessen,
Thomas W. Feurer, H. James Tippett,
Robert L. Freie, Herbert L. Vanderberry,
Craig M. Hayes, Charles A. Van Lahr,

John O. Witzig.
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-2 NASS, USDA


Florida's sugarcane remains in good condition. Cutting for seed and
planting was active during September. The first mill is expected to open by
the end of October.

In Hawaii, relatively dry weather during September helped harvest. Norma
irrigation supplemented the light showers and ensured proper growth. Heavy
showers, remnants of Tropical Depression Wila, pelted windward areas late in
the month.

Louisiana planting progressed slowly due to wet field conditions. Harvest
is expected to begin the week of October 10-14.

The Texas crop escaped serious damage from Hurricane Gilbert. A few
fields were blown over but should not cause any losses.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: The pasture and range feed condition on

October 1, 1988 for the 48 contiguous
States was 60 percent, 19 points below October 1, 1987, and 15 points below
the 1977-86 average for the date. The October 1, condition was 6 points above
the September 1, 1988 condition. Condition improved in 34 States, declined in
8 States, and was unchanged in 6 States.

Rainfall across the country generally improved pasture and range feed
condition. Only two States, Montana and North Dakota, remained in the extreme
drought range. The severe drought range included four States: Idaho, South
Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Conditions in the eastern half of the country have improved greatly with
most States in the poor to fair and good to excellent ranges.

APPLES: The final forecast of the 1988 U.S. apple crop places production at
8.13 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the August 1 forecast of 8.07
billion pounds but 23 percent less than last year's production.

Eastern States expect 2.87 billion pounds, up 2 percent from August 1 but
3 percent less than 1987. The drought adversely affected the crop in the
East. August and September rains were generally beneficial but came too late
in some cases and caused fruit to split in New Jersey. Hail in parts of New
England and Virginia limited the crop. Fruit size varies from small to large
depending on the amount and timeliness of rains.

Prospects in the Central States are forecast at 1.11 billion pounds, down
J percent from the August 1 forecast and 30 percent Jess than 1987. Fruit
size is generally smaller than normal. Rains came too late to offset the
drought. High winds and insects did extensive damage to the Missouri crop.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 4.15 billion pounds,
unchanged from the August 1 forecast but 31 percent less than last year's
crop. In Colorado, the harsh winter, May frosts, hail, and the bumper crop
last year combined to lower production. Quality is excellent in California
and a higher than normal percentage appear to be going to fresh market.
Quality and sizes are good in Oregon where Reds are coloring nicely with
cooler weather. Washington's Reds are smaller than normal but have excellent
color. Goldens are sizing well.

GRAPES: The U.S. grape crop is forecast at 5.46 million tons, unchanged from
the September 1 forecast but 4 percent above last year's production.

California's production, at 4.95 million tons, is 6 percent above last
year. The California raisin variety grape forecast is 2.25 million tons,
unchanged from the September 1 forecast but 2 percent above 1987 production.
The raisin harvest made rapid progress during September under good drying
conditions. Rain was not a threat and most raisin vineyards had been rolled
or picked up by October 1. Harvest got off to a very late start this season
because of slow maturity. Hot weather during late August and early September
caused much concern over the size and quality of the crop.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B~12 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO BY STATES

AREA HARVESTED

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
CONN : 1,800 1,810 1,509 1,573 3,062 2,716 2,848
FLA : 5,600 6,500 2,465 2,450 13,303 133804 153925
GA : 32,000 36,000 2,255 2,250 67,890 72,160 81,000
IND : 5,400 5,600 2,050 1,950 12,095 11,070 103920
KY + 148,300 153,600 2,056 2,195 314,940 304,845 337,150
MO : 11,700 10,000 1,140 1,350 21,120 13,338 135500
MASS : 520 520 1,256 1,608 622 653 836
MO : 1,700 2,100 2,070 1,700 4,389 3,519 3,570
NC : 224,900 249,500 2,075 2,200 444,790 466,592 548,800
OHIO : 7,350 8,220 1,639 1,700 13,57 12,044 13,970
PA : 11,000 10,000 1,882 1,915 215830 20,700 193150
sc : 42,000 44,000 2,240 2,200 75,480 94,080 96,800
TENN : 49,440 49,440 1,766 1,824 82,821 87,291 90,186
VA : 39,430 43,730 1,950 2,053 73,524 76,900 89,776
WA : 1,800 1,900 1,440 1,250 2,640 2,592 2,375
WIS : 4,200 3,100 1,993 1,847 11,860 8,370 5,725
us 2 887,140 626,020 2,028 2,129 1,163,940 1,190,674 1,332,531

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUGARBEETS 1/

1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
CALIF 215.0 212.0 27.7 25.5 4,832 5,956 5,406
COLO 37.0 38.5 21.7 21.5 889 803 828
IDAHO 162.0 166.0 26.4 25.0 4,112 4,277 4,150
MICH 142.0 147.0 20.5 19.0 2,288 2,911 2,793
MINN 310.0 332.0 20.0 14.5 5,194 6,200 4,814
MONT 48.9 49.0 22.2 21.5 1,016 1,086 1,054
NEBR 60.2 62.6 18.3 21.0 1,387 1,102 1,315
N MEX 4 +4 10.0 20.0 27 2 8
N DAK 161.3 172.0 19.6 14.5 2,932 3,161 2,494
OHIO 16.2 14.8 16.6 18.0 309 269 266
OREG 13.7 14,2 30.8 28.3 374 422 402
TEX 31.5 33.0 19.7 21.0 829 621 693
WYO 53.4 56.3 21.1 20.0 1,000 1,127 1,126
us 1,251.4 1,297.8 22.3 19.5 25,162 27,937 25,349

1/ RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED
BEETS IN CALIF. 2/ NOT ESTIMATED.

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS

FLA : 417.0 420.0 32.3 33.0 13,446 13,469 13,860
HAW : 86.5 88.0 94.7 96.5 8,587 8,195 8,492
LA : 285.0 300.0 22.7 7,371 6,469 7,800
TEX : 35.1 33.2 30.9 907 1,085 963
us 823.6 841.2 35.5 37.0 30,317 29,218 31,115
1/ NET TONS.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1988 A~34 NASS, USDA


Seventy-two percent of the cotton acreage had reached the boll opening
stage, 3 points ahead of normal. By October 2, harvest was 19 percent
finished, 9 points behind 1987 and 1 point behind normal. Harvest was 31
percent finished, 6 points behind normal in Mississippi. Texas’ harvest was
22 percent complete, 6 points ahead of the average. Harvest lagged far behind
normal in Arkansas, Missouri, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Harvest was just
beginning in California, New Mexico, and Oklahoma.

Seventy-eight percent of the sorghum acreage was mature by October 2, 8
points ahead of normal. Maturity was far ahead of normal in Kansas, Nebraska,
and South Dakota. Oklahoma's acreage was only 30 percent mature, 35 points
behind 1987 and 40 points behind normal. Harvest was 42 percent complete, 6
points ahead of normal in the 112 major producing states. Harvest was
considerably ahead of normal in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

Rice harvest was 63 percent complete, 19 points behind 1987 and 9 points
behind normal. Harvest was nearing completion in Louisiana and was complete
in Texas. Arkansas' harvest was 53 percent finished, 20 points behind normal.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 4.55 billion
bushels, up 2 percent from last month, but 36 percent below
1987.

The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at 80.2 bushels, up 1.7 bushels
from last month, but down 39.2 bushels from last year's record high 119.4
bushels. Yields in the leading States and bushel changes from last year are:
Iowa 82, down 48; Nebraska 118, down 13; Illinois 70, down 62; Indiana 74,
down 61; Minnesota 70, down 57; Ohio 74, down 46; and Wisconsin 70, down 48.

The crop is being harvested well ahead of normal. By October 2, 32 percent
had been harvested in the 17 major States compared with the average of 22
percent. Harvest has been very slow in Indiana and Ohio and progress there is
behind normal.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION
1979 - 1988

BILLION BUSHELS
10 /-

4
8.88
8.12 8.24 7.67 N 8.26
al re Ca
NN 7.06
6 ee
4.
4.17
4 RKO" .
. SS
\ SY
2 RSS... ... ... ... ... ...f
S ~
N
1979 1980 1981 1982 19083 1084 1086 1966 1967 1986
YEAR
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1988 B-5 NASS, USDA



ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE 3 IND; s IND : : IND
1987 1988 : 1987 : 1988; 1986 : 1987 1988
3 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
LARGE LIMA :
CALIF : 21.0 29.0 2,100 2,050 385 441 595
BABY LIMA 3
CALIF : 21.0 29.0 2,310 2,150 637 485 624
OTHER z
Ati : 126.0 101.0 1,740 1,750 1,840 2,192 1,768
CALIF z 168.0 159.0 1,856 1,879 2,862 3,118 2,987
cOLo t 180.0 195.0 1,450 1,470 2,701 2,610 2,867
IDAHO 3 148.0 108.0 1,900 1,750 2,724 2,812 1,890
KANS ess 25.0 20.0 1,450 1,650 380 363 330
MICH : 440.0 240.0 1,260 1,200 2,720 5,544 2,880
MINN H 74.0 62.0 1,600 700 3,007 1,184 434
MONT 2s: 5.7 6.0 2,190 2,000 97 125 120
NEBR t 197.0 200.0 1,780 2,000 4,305 3,507 4,000
N MEX B/: 11.0 9.5 1,930 2,200 212 209
NY H 28.0 25.0 1,500 1,300 434 420 325
N DAK : 359.0 340.0 1,400 700 4,340 5,026 2,380
UTAH 2/3 6.7 6.5 700 550 4) 47 36
WASH 3 35.0 36.0 2,130 2,100 670 746 756
WYO : 31.0 35.0 1,920 2,000 605 595 700
us : 1,708.4 1,442.0 1,540 7,382 22,886 26,309 19,924

7 EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR
CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 3/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1987 CROP.

LENTILS

AREA PLANTED

1,000 ACRES.
IDAHO : 45.0
WASH : 97.0
us 142.0

1,000 CWT

630 299
1,164 595

T/ REVISEO.

CROP PROOUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-29 NASS, USDA


BUSHELS

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1988

ALL WHEAT:

31.0
89.9
41.0
77.4
38.1
42.0
30.0
31.0
75.0
59.0
58.0
38.0
37.0
49.0
31.0
49.0
48.0
40.7
36.0
46.0
32.2
44.0
80.0
45.0
32.0
47.0
41.0
29.5
58.0
27.0
65.3
43.0
38.0
30.2
41.0
28.0
45.0
45.0
56.7
45.0
47.3
30.6

43.0 5,720
90.9 8,688
53.0 33,415
84.4 51,525
33.7 96,430
52.0 1,530
37.0 3,100
43.0 15,400

50. 30,100
30.0 1,680
34.0 336,600
54.0 8,910
41.0 7,350
53.0 6,815
42.0 30,600
23.0 103,666
46.0 6,200

36.0 76,000
70.5 1,720
45.0 1,290
24.0 10,120
55.0 7,595
50.0 15,180
14.3 292,320
50.0 48, 300

53.0 9,680
46.0 7,500
14.4 108,660
50.0 10,725
28.0 120,00
38.3 9,750
52.0 6,970
60.5 116,850
46.0 396
38.7 8,040
22.4 8,445

34. oO 2,091,635

A-13

YIELD AND PRODUCTION

TION

1,000 BUSHELS

5,270
8,005
34,440
43,890
97,380
2,016
1,800
14,260
85,500
56,050
34,800
1,140
366, 300
16,170
5,270
8,085
19,200
102,588
12,600
35,420
151,220
85,800
1,680
1,215
10,880
3,760
18,040
269,120
46,400
129,600
52,920
7,955
10,450
106,704
14,350
166,800
8,963
9,675
114, 285
495
4,164
8,820

2,107,480

1/ REVISED.

172, 800
51,800
9,010
14,030
38,006
21,500
89,600
6,822
10,400
124,620
414
5,152
5,340

1,812,095

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA



The dry-away ratio is expected to be very high, reflecting lower crop
quality than the past two years. Raisin varieties harvested for wine also
fell behind the pace of the previous two years. By September 24, only 309
thousand tons had been crushed compared to 426 thousand in 1987.

The California wine variety forecast of 2.05 million tons is 5 percent
above 1987 output. The 1988 harvest got off to the slowest start in several
years, By September 24, only 1.59 million tons of wine grapes had been
crushed, 8 percent less than in 1987. Record hot temperatures during late
August and early September contributed to the slow maturity. Crushing was
active through the month of September. Production costs this season were much
higher for some growers because of increased water pumping costs.

The California table variety grape forecast is 650 thousand tons, 27
percent above the 1987 crop. Fresh market table grape harvest continued
during September with very good quality grapes shipped from the San Juaquin
Valley. Harvesting of table varieties to be crushed for wine got underway in
mid-August. By September 24th, California wineries had crushed 139 thousand
tons of table variety grapes compared to 126 thousand tons crushed at this
time in 1987.

The Washington all grape forecast, at 185 thousand tons, is 26 percent
below 1987 production. Concord harvest is active and is expected to be
completed by mid-October. The crop is picking out Tighter than expected but
quality is good. Wine harvest is also active and should continue through
October. Recent weather has been favorable for harvest.

The New York grape forecast is 158 thousand tons, 11 percent less than
last year. Chardonnay harvest is in full swing on Long Island. Concord grape
berry size is down in the Chatouqua-Erie region. Concords are now being
harvested as juice processors opened on September 20.

Pennsylvania's forecast of 56.0 thousand tons is 10 percent less than 1987
Production. The 1988 crop is reported to be in good condition. As of October
2, only 30 percent of the grapes had been harvested, far behind the 62 percent
this time JTast year. At the present time, growers are not expecting any
problems obtaining adequate sugar levels.

The Michigan forecast is 55.0 thousand tons, 8 percent below last year's
crop. Michigan's grape crop looks excellent in spite of the drought. Very
little disease has been reported, and growers are pleased with the quality and
Brix. Concord harvest is expected to continue through the third week of
ctober.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: California prune production (dried basis) is forecast at
160 thousand tons, unchanged from the September 1 forecast
but 30 percent less than last year.

Production of plums and prunes in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington
is forecast at 50.5 thousand tons, down 2 percent from September 1 and 6
percent less than 1987. Harvest is complete. Quality was generally good to
excellent. There was little insect or disease damage in Idaho. Irrigation
water was adequate. The drought reduced fruit size in Michigan. Fruit sized
nicely in Washington.

PAPAYA: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is forecast at 6.00 million pounds
in October, 2 percent more than October 1987. Output for the months
of November and December is expected to remain at the 6.00 million pound
level. Production for January 1989 is anticipated to decline slightly to 5.90
million pounds. .

September fresh utilization is estimated at 5.55 million pounds, 8 percent
more than August and 16 percent higher than last September. Total fresh sales
for the January-September period was % percent more than the same S-month
period a year ago. Weather conditions during September were generally
favorable for papayas. Skies were mostly sunny with a few passing showers.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-13 NASS, USDA



GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects for the 1988-89 season in the "Desert Areas" of

California indicate a crop of 66.7 million boxes, 5 percent above
the previous season and 15 percent more than the 1986-87 season. This
estimate excludes the California “Other Areas" grapefruit crop, which will be
forecast for the first time as of April 1, 31989. This area accounted for 4.70
million boxes harvested last season and 5.00 million boxes in 1986-87.

Florida's grapefruit forecast is a record high 57.0 million boxes, 6
“percent above last season and 14 percent more than the 1986-87 crop. The
Florida white seedless grapefruit forecast is 30.0 million boxes, up 3 percent
from last season; colored seedless is 24.5 million boxes, up 12 percent; and
seedy grapefruit, at 2.50 million boxes, is 9 percent less than 1987-88.

The California desert grapefruit forecast is 3.90 million boxes, down 7
percent from last season. Arizona's grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.30
million boxes, down 13 percent from last season. The Texas grapefruit
forecast is 4.50 million boxes compared with 3.80 million boxes last season.

LEMONS: The Arizona-California lemon crop (tree crop available for harvest)

totals 22.7 million boxes, 10 percent above last season but 21 percent
below the crop utilized in 1986-87. California expects a crop of 18.5 million
boxes, 9 percent more than last season. The Arizona crop is forecast at 4.20
gi ition boxes, 15 percent more than 1987-88. Harvest is underway in both
tates.

TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop forecast is 3.90 million boxes, down 7 per-
cent from last season and 2 percent less than the 1986-87 crop.

TEMPLES: Florida's temple forecast is 3.80 million boxes, 7 percent above last
season's production and 12 percent higher than 1986-87,

TANGERINES: The U.S. all tangerine forecast is 5.05 million boxes, 1 percent

above last season but 4 percent less than the harvest in 1986-87.
This forecast includes all varieties of tangerines in Florida, i.e., Dancy,
Robinson, and Honey; as well as production of California and Arizona
tangerines.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Florida's groves are in very good condition. Soil moisture

was adequate to surplus throughout most of September. How-
ever, by the end of the month, the east coast and several interior counties had
started irrigating due to dry conditions and near record high temperatures.
New crop fruit made normal progress during September. The first harvest of
the 1988-89 season was on September 20 with shipments on Saturday, the 24th.
By the end of the month, harvesters had picked both white and colored grape-
fruit, K-early citrus fruit, and Hamlin oranges. Navel harvest is expected
the first of October. Caretakers have been kept busy cultivating, spraying,
and fertilizing.

TEXAS CITRUS: Harvest of early oranges was beginning by October 1. Overall

citrus has good size and appearance. Insect damage has been
light. Only minor damage was received from Hurricane Gilbert along the border.
Young trees are in good condition.

CALIFORNIA FRUITS AND NUTS: The apple harvest continued into September with

Golden Delicious, Red Delicious, and Granny Smith
varieties being packed. Apple maggot problems were reported in northern
orchards. Asian pears, avacados, and figs were harvested. The soft date
harvest took place in Riverside County. Raisins, table grapes, and wine
grapes were harvested continuously and neared completion by month's end.
Kiwifruit growers reported that their crop was sizing well. The last of the
nectarine, peach, pear, plum, and prune crops were packed by month's end.
Harvesting of the olive, pomegranate, persimmon, and quince crops began. Post
harvest activities included pruning, dead tree removal, irrigation, and
fumigation. Nut crop growers were busy shaking trees as almonds, chestnuts,
pistachios, and walnuts were harvested. Some sunburn was reported by walnut
growers. After harvest activities by walnut growers included discing orchards
and spraying for husk fly, codling moth, and Navel orange worm. Citrus
growers irrigated groves. New crop Navel oranges were progressing normally
and just beginning to show color in September's last week. Grapefruit, Desert
lemons, and Valencia oranges were picked and packed during the month. Desert
grapefruit neared the start of harvest with good yields expected.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 B-15 NASS, USDA



DURUM WHEAT

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED
STATE {nnnnnnnae-nnnnnnonanneenensennaeancencennccnnnnnetnnnnnnenenannanenane
1986: 1987 1/: 1988: 1986: 1987 1/: 1988
a po 1,000 ACRES . °
ARIZ: 49 46 51 48 45 50
CALIF: 80 60 60 75 57 59
NINN 35 30 45 34 29 40
MONT: 165 198 280 160 190 230
NDAK =: 2,600 2,900 2,900 2,500 2,850 2,500
S DAK: 65 0 100 60 108 68
US: 2,994 3,341 3,436 2,877 3,279 2,947
: YIELD : PRODUCTION
: 1986 : 1987 1/: 1988 : 1986 1987 1/ : 1988
: BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ARIZ: 87.0 85.0 86.0 4,176 3,825 4,300
CALIF : 87.0 90.0 95.0 6,525 5,130 5,605
NINN = 39.0 42.0 21.0 13326 13218 840
MONT : 27.0 28.0 10.0 4,320 52320 2,300
NDAK : 32.0 26.0 13.0 80,000 742100 32,500
SDAK : 26.0 28.0 12.0 13560 35024 316
US: 34.0 28.2 15.7 97,907 92,617 46,361

1,000 BUSHELS

1986 : 1,017,831 292,450 211,217 451,417. 97,907 20,813 2,091,635
1987: 1,020,772 347,742 196,662 430,578 92,617 19,109 2,107,480
1988 1/: 888,482 199,632 182,424 46,361 22,340 1,812,095

V
AT _5-YEAR INTERVALS FOR. ALL WHEAT PRODUCING STATES. THE 5-YEAR VARIETAL SURVEY
DATA ARE ADJUSTED ANNUALLY AS OTHER VARIETY SURVEY INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1988 A-16 NASS, USDA