May Weather Summary: Precipitation in May was plentiful along the primary

storm track, which extended roughly from the Pacific
Northwest to the Great Lakes. Thunderstorm outbreaks were common throughout
the Plains, focusing along the convergence zone of dry air from the Western
Plateau and moisture-laden air of Gulf of Mexico origin. Gulf-moistened air
also contributed to above-normal rainfall in most of the Southeast. Among the
areas garnering below-normal precipitation for May were the Southwest, the
Rocky Mountain rain shadow (a narrow strip east of the Great Divide), and
large portions of the Ohio Valley and the Northeast.

Prolonged warmth in the East--especially during the latter half of May--
resulted in significant positive temperature anomalies. Departures exceeded
+8° F in some Great Lakes States. Temperatures at most locations from the
Plains eastward averaged greater than 2° F above normal. For the third month
in a row, cooler-than-normal air was confined to the western third of the
Nation. The Great Basin's temperature averaged about 4° F below normal in
May.

May Fieldwork: Frequent rain in the Mississippi Valley and Southeast delayed

spring planting, and some flooding occurred in the lower Delta
and Midwest. Mostly clear weather across the West allowed planting and early
harvest activities to progress rapidly. Planting progress was behind normal
in the Cornbelt, Delta, and Southeast, but ahead of normal in the Ohio Valley
and most of the western half of the country.

Predominantly wet weather during the early part of the month resulted in
increased occurrence of foliar diseases in parts of the Cornbelt and Ohio
Valley and continuous wet field conditions stressed crops in the lower
Mississippi Valley. Above-normal temperatures traversing the Nation in the
latter half of the month promoted crop development.

Winter wheat maturity continued to progress ahead of schedule across most of
the Nation and harvest got underway in the southernmost States. Heading
advanced rapidly in the Midwest during the warm weather interval, but lagged
behind normal in the Pacific Northwest. Condition of the 1991 winter wheat
crop deteriorated during the month as disease problems intensified. At the
end of the month, winter wheat condition rated fair to good for the Nation but
mostly poor in Arkansas and poor to fair in I1linois.

Spring wheat condition remained good in the five principal producing States.
Barley and oats harvests were underway in the East, while planting neared
completion in the Northwest.

Corn planting was slowed by rains early in the month, but surged ahead with
the clear weather at mid-month. Planting progress was ahead of normal from
Illinois through the Ohio Valley, but behind normal in the western half of the
Corn Belt. Planting progress in the 17 major producing States reached

92 percent (%) complete by June 2, 5 points ahead of last year but 3 points
behind the historic average. Iowa planting, at 82% complete, was 11 points
behind last year and 15 points behind normal.

Soybean planting reached 56% complete by June 2, 9 points ahead of last year
but 10 points behind normal. Planting progress was ahead of normal in the
eastern half of the Corn Belt and Great Plains, but was behind normal in the
rain plagued Mississippi Valley and the Southeast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 B-2 NASS, USDA


Hops by State and Variety

State Area Harvested : Strung for Harvest
EN ata
Variety 1989 1990 1991
Acres
ID :
Aquila : 110 103 103
Banner : 110 107 161
Chinook : 220 292 468
Cluster : 490 560 749
Eroica : 350 317 242
Galena 3 540 528 514
Other Varieties : 980 793 1,919
Total : 2,800 2,700 4,156
OR :
Fuggles : 801 608 487
Galena H 149 99 99
Mt Hood : 2/ 47 47
Nugget : 1,278 1,393 1,695
Perle 3 285 134 177
Tettnang : 531 618 577
Willamette 2 3,792 3,859 3,590
Other Varieties : 576 342 518
Total : 7,412 7,100 7,190
WA 1/ :
Aquila : 356 348 346
Banner : 356 361 366
Cascade : 1,297 1,270 1,240
Chinook : 1,269 1,454 2,112
Cluster 3 6,374 6,054 6,230
Eroica : 472 439 398
Galena : 5,735 6,161 7,628
Mt Hood : 2/ 513 820
Nugget : 2,241 2,827 2,955
Olympic : 279 280 337
Perle : 779 798 758
Tettnang : 2,410 2,362 2,254
Willamette : 2,507 2,604 2,609
Other Varieties : 261 192 218
Total : 24,336 25,663 28,271
us : 34,548 35,463 39,617

1/ Includes California to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
2/ Included in other varieties.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-14 NASS, USDA


The Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States escaped major frost damage this year.
The crop in these States is in good condition.

Plums: California's crop is forecast at 210,000 tons, down 5 percent from

last year and 3 percent less than 1989. Maturity is about a week.
later than normal. Harvest began slowly because of cool spring temperatures.
Fruit size varies, but quality remains good. Early varieties are picking out
lighter than last year. Later varieties are expected to pick out heavier than
earlier anticipated.

Dried Prunes: Production in California is forecast at 180,000 tons, up

22 percent from a year ago but 20 percent less than the 1989
crop. The crop is clean and relatively free of defects. Rain and cold
weather in late March caused a staggered bloom which led to varied fruit
maturity. Harvest is expected to begin about August 10.

Apricots: The first forecast for the 1991 U.S. apricot crop is 100,100 tons,

down 18 percent from last year's production and down 17 percent
from the 1989 crop. California production is forecast at 95,000 tons, down
17 percent from 1990.

The 1991 California apricot crop suffered some hail damage. Undamaged fruit
is in excellent condition, with good size. Harvest of early varieties
continues, while cool temperatures delay harvest of later varieties.

The Utah crop, forecast at 100 tons, fell 60 percent from 1990 and dropped
75 percent from 1989. The crop is down sharply due to freeze damage and
drought.

Washington apricot production declined 31 percent from last year to
5,000 tons. The decrease resulted from the severe freeze in December of 1990.

Nectarines: The initial forecast for the California nectarine crop is = 4

210,000 tons, down slightly from last season. Harvest has begun
with approximately 5 percent of the crop picked as of June 1. Normal sizes
and good quality are reported.

Almonds: The June 1 forecast for the 1991 California almond crop is

450 million pounds, shelled basis, unchanged from last month but
32 percent below last year's crop of 660 million pounds. The current crop is
progressing nicely. The nuts seem to be sizing well, although cool tempera-
tures are slowing maturity. Water supplies seem adequate.

Papayas: Fresh papaya utilization from Hawaii is estimated at 3.70 million.,,

pounds for May, 2 percent lower than April and 28 percent lower than
May 1990. Year-to-date fresh sales trail the same 5-month period of 1990 by
22 percent. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,310 acres, 4 percent
below the acres in April and 15 percent below last May. Harvested area,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 B-6 NASS, USDA


United States Crop Summary - Area Planted and Harvested
(Metric Units)

Hectares
Winter Wheat : 23,066,520 20,652,540 20,224,790 16,310,630
Spring Potatoes : 38,930 36,060 38,490 35,370

United States Crop Summary - Yield per Hectare and Production
(Metric Units)

Crop $ :
:Indicated: 1990
1991
Metric Tons
Winter Wheat : 2.74 2.42 55,337,300 40,712,900 39,446,700
Spring Potatoes : 28.48 26.11 1,096,020 929,730 923,500
Peaches H 1,000,260 1,176,850
Apricots : 111,080 90,810
Nectarines (Ca) 3 191,420 190,510
Plums (Ca) 3 201,400 190,510
Dried Prunes (Ca) : 133,360 163,290
Almonds (Ca) : 299,370 204,120 204,120
Citrus Fruits 1/ : 1989-90 1990-91 1990-91
Oranges : 7,009,820 7,194,880 7,154,060
Grapefruit : 1,797,130 2,102,850 2,044,790

1/ Season begins with bloom of the first year shown and ends with the comple-
tion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-5 NASS, USDA


Rains and wet field conditions across the Southeast and Delta regions held
cotton planting to a minimum early in the month, but a brief respite at mid-
month allowed growers to get much of their acreage seeded. (Cool nights slowed
cotton germination in Arizona, prompting replanting statewide. Crop condition
at the end of the month rated mostly good to fair nationwide, with good
conditions predominating from California through the Southwest, and mostly
fair conditions in the eastern half of the Nation.

Rice planting was behind normal in each of the five principal producing States
entering May and continued rains in the Delta held progress in check
throughout the month. Planting was completed by June 2 in Texas and nearly
complete in California, while growers in the Lower Mississippi Valley
continued to be delayed by wet weather. Mississippi planting was only 50%
complete, compared with 97% normal. Progress in Arkansas and Louisiana was
15 points behind normal, at 79% and 83% complete, respectively.

Winter Wheat: Production is forecast at 1.45 billion bushels as of

dune 1, 1991. This is down 3 percent from the May 1 forecast
and down 29 percent from 1990. Yields are expected to average 36.0 bushels
per acre, 0.9 of a bushel less than May 1 and 4.7 bushels lower than last
year. Harvested area, at 40.3 million acres, is off slightly from last month
and down 19 percent from last season.

U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION
1982-1991

° BILLION BUSHELS

2.07 1.99 2.06 2.03

2.00 183
157 156

1.50 452 146 1.45
, N
1.00
0.60
0.00

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1991 B-3 NASS, USDA


Cool weather continues to slow maturity of the California crop. Warm weather
is needed to promote fruit growth. Hail damaged some fruit in Lake County.

The crop in the Medford, Oregon, area is in excellent condition. There was
some early hail damage and more scab than normal. Production in the Hood
River area is uncertain. The cooler than usual spring slowed crop development
enough that the effect of December's sub-zero temperatures cannot be fully
assessed. In the upper Hood River Valley, crop development lags normal by

10 days to two weeks.

The December cold wave also reduced crop prospects in Washington. The full
extent of the damage is still unknown.

Hops: Acreage strung for harvest is forecast at 39,617 acres, a 12 percent
increase from last year and 15 percent more than 1989.

The Washington crop development has been hampered by a cool], windy spring.
Mature hops are in normal condition but young hops are developing slowly.

Sugar Crops - 1990 Revised: Production of sugarbeets in 1990 totaled

27.5 million tons, 10 percent above the
1989 output. The larger production was the result of both increased acreage
and higher average yields. Area harvested totaled 1.38 million acres,
6 percent more than in 1989. Yield per acre averaged 20.0 tons per acre
compared with the previous year’s average of 19.4 tons.

Sugarcane produced for sugar in 1990 totaled 26.5 million tons, 6 percent less
than in 1989. A sharp reduction in Louisiana, largely the result of a severe
freeze in December of 1989, plus a decline in Hawaii were only partially
offset by larger crops in Florida and Texas. The average yield of 36.4 tons
per acre compares with 34.9 a year earlier. The area harvested totaled
726,400 thousand acres, 10 percent less than a year earlier.

Total sugar production of 6.99 million tons raw value from the 1990 sugarcane
and sugarbeet crops was up 6 percent from a year earlier. The larger sugar
output came from the sugarbeet crop. The sugar output from the sugarcane crop
was off slightly.

Sugar from the 1990 sugarcane crop totaled 3.15 million tons raw value, off

1 percent from a year earlier. A major increase in the quantity produced in
Florida was largely offset by a significant drop in Louisiana. Of less impact
was a decline in Hawaij and an increase in Texas. Yield of sugar per ton of
cane averaged 238 pounds compared with 226 pounds a year ago.

Sugarbeets sliced from the 1990 crop totaled 26.6 million tons, 8 percent
above 1989. Sugar (raw value) produced from the crop totaled 3.84 million
tons, a 12 percent gain from the previous year. Average recovery of sugar per
ton of beets harvested was up 5 pounds from a year earlier.

Sweetpotatoes - 1990 Revised: The final estimate of sweetpotato production
for 1990 came in at 12.6 million cwt,

11 percent above 1989 and 15 percent above 1988. The revised production was

3 percent under the preliminary estimate made last January. Harvest came from

89,500 acres, 4 percent above a year earlier and 5 percent above two years

ago.

Crop Production . Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 B-9 NASS, USDA


A hard winter with 7 to 10 days of sub-zero temperatures limited Colorado's
production. Early reports indicated the crop might be a total loss, but
production is now expected to be slightly better than last year's freeze
damaged crop.

The crop in Oregon's Willamette Valley is developing later than normal.
December's cold snap appears to have caused minimal damage. The cold, wet
spring decreased bloom and fruit set.

The cold December weather caused some winter kill in Utah. Adverse weather
during the pollination period also affected production potential. Bloom was
light and the fruit set appears questionable.

Spring Potatoes: Production of spring potatoes is forecast at 20.4 million
cwt, a drop of 16 percent from last year and 2 percent below
the 1989 crop. Area for harvest, estimated at 87,400 acres, fell 8 percent
from a year ago and 2 percent below the 1989 acreage. The average yield, at
233 cwt per acre, is down 8 percent from last year and 1 percent below 1989.

Heavy rains in the southeastern States during May interrupted harvest and
damaged potatoes in some areas. Digging in Alabama came to a virtual stand-
still and some acreage was lost. Harvest in the Hastings area of Florida was
mostly finished by the end of May. A few fields in other Florida areas remain
to be dug. Potatoes in North Carolina are in mostly good condition with
harvest to start shortly. Harvest in Texas' Rio Grande Valley ended, but is
still underway in Winter Garden with some rain delays. A good crop is
expected in the Knox-Haskel] area with digging to begin soon.

Growers in California began harvest of Kern County potatoes in early May.
Sizes were smal] as cool weather slowed early growth. Arizona harvest moved
along smoothly with little weather or insect damage.

Peaches: The first peach forecast of 1991 is set at 2.59 billion pounds,

18 percent more than 1990 and 11 percent more than 1989. Production
of the Freestone crop, excluding California Clingstones that are mostly
canned, is forecast at 1.62 billion pounds, up 36 percent from 1990 and up
21 percent from 1989. Production of California Clingstone is expected to
total 970 million pounds, down 4 percent from last year and down 2 percent
from 1989.

California's freestone crop has good quality and size. Maturity is about a
week behind normal because of the cool spring. Water supplies are adequate at
this time for the Freestone and Clingstone crops. The Clingstone crop is a
week to ten days behind normal maturity. Fruit size is good. Early varieties
had a good set but late varieties appear to have a light set.

South Carolina growers could harvest the largest crop since 1984. Harvest
started in mid-May in the Coastal Plains. Lack of size has been a concern in
early varieties. Excessive moisture caused above normal disease problems.
Freeze damage was limited this year.

Conditions are near ideal in Georgia. Harvest began in early May and was
29 percent complete by early June. There was hail damage in the southern part
of the state.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 B-5 NASS, USDA


Sweetpotatoes

Area Planted Area Harvested

State : : :
1989 : 1990 1/ : 1989 : 1990 1/
1,000 Acres

AL 4.0 5.0 3.9 4.9
CA 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3
GA 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.5
LA 19.0 22.0 18.0 21.0
MD 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6
MS 3.0 3.5 3.0 3.5
NJ 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
NC 35.0 36.0 34.0 34.0
sc 3.2 3.5 3.0 3.4
TM 2/ 0.6 0.6
TX 7.8 6.8 7.0 6.2
VA 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0
US 5 0
AL 120 120 468 588
CA 175 175 1,453 1,453
GA 3 170 130 816 585
LA 160 160 2,880 3,360
MD 160 140 80 84
MS 95 120 285 420
NJ 80 130 168 273
NC : 120 145 4,080 4,930
sc 110 110 330 374
TN 2/ 100 60
TX 90 60 630 372
VA 135 155 108 155
US : 132 141 11,358 12,594
l/ Revised.
2/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-18 NASS, USDA


Peaches

Production
State : Total 1/
force cen nnn nnn tenn onan en eee Ind
1989 1990 1991
Million Pounds

AL 15.0 12.0 16.0
AR : 2.5 18.0 11.0
‘CA - Freestone 3 §28.0 572.0 550.0
co : 2/ 17.0 1.0
CT 4.0 3.6 3.4
OE 0.4 0.2 2.7
GA 125.0 130.0 150.0
ID 4.0 4.7 2/
IL 13.0 0.3 20.0
IN 4.0 0.8 3.8
KS 2.5 0.1 5.0
KY 2.0 2/ 12.0
LA 1.4 4.0 5.0
MD 7.6 4.0 16.0
MA 2.1 2.0 2.1
MI 55.0 45.0 40.0

MS 3/ 1.0
MO 4.5 0.7 10.0
NJ 70.0 45.0 120.0
NY 12.5 14.0 15.0
NC 12.0 10.0 35.0
OH 8.0 5.5 5.5
OK 25.0 8.0 25.0
OR 14.0 14.5 13.0
PA H 65.0 76.0 80.0
sc : 270.0 110.0 360.0
TN : 1.3 1.3 7.0
TMX 14.0 24.0 32.0
UT 11.0 12.0 4.0
VA 15.0 2.5 29.0
WA 44.0 53.0. 30.0
WV 9.0 3.0 21.0
Total Above : 1,342.8 1,193.2 1,624.5

Clingstone 4/ :

ai : 992.0 1,012.0 970.0
us : 2,334.8 2,205.2 2,594.5

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
United States, excluding CA clingstone peaches, 1989-58.0, 1990-36.6.

2/ No significant production due to frost. 3/ Estimates discontinued.

4/ CA clingstone is over the scale tonnage and includes culls and cannery
diversions (million pounds): 1989-68.0; 1990-0.0.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-10 NASS, USDA




Wheat Production by Classes, United States 1/

1,000 Bushels

1989 : 711,040 548,919 194,683 433,455 92,229 56,292 2,036,618

1990 : 1,198,855 549,478 284,966 554,678 122,171 28,446 2,738,594

1991 2/ : 890,163 400,533 158,722

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the
previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season.

2/ Indicated June 1, 1991.

Durum Wheat

Area Harvested Yield Production

State : : Ind : Ind: H : Ind
: 1990 : 1992 1/ 1990 : 1991 2/ : 1989 : 1990 : 1991 2/

-- 1,000 Acres --- --- Bushels --- ----- 1,000 Bushels -----
AZ : 44 29 94.0 89.0 7,560 4,136 2,581
CA : 54 35 99.0 90.0 8,715 5,346 3,150
MN : 30 44.0 1,044 —-1,320
MT : 235 19.0 6,030 4,465
ND : 3,050 34.0 66,000 103,700
sD : 89 36.0 2,880 3,204
us > 3,502 34.9 92,229 122,171

1/ Harvested area for U.S. and northern States available in “Acreage” report
released June 27, 1991.

2/ Yield and production for U.S. and northern States to be published in
"Crop Production” report released July 11, 1991.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-7 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat

State
: - 1,000 Acres - -- Bushels -- --~--- 1,000 Bushels ------

AL : 190 130 35.0 30.0 6,600 6,650 3,900
AZ VU: 54 34 95.0 91.0 3,162 5,130 3,094
AR : 1,400 980 35.0 31.0 52,800 49,000 30,380
CA : 560 360 76.0 80.0 43,890 42,560 28,800
co : 2,550 . 2,400 33.0 29.0 57,200 84,150 69,600
DE YW: 60 65 51.0 52.0 3,108 3,060 3,380
FL V/: 55 35 33.0 31.0 1,885 1,815 1,085
GA : 590 490 35.0 35.0 22,400 20,650 17,150
1D : 920 770 75.0 68.0 56,700 69,000 52,360
Ik : 1,900 1,500 48.0 40.0 105,020 91,200 60,000
IN : 970 800 52.0 49.0 51,920 50,440 39,200
IA I/: 75 70 45.0 45.0 3,290 3,375 3,150
KS : 11,800 10,800 40.0 34.0 213,600 472,000 367,200
KY H 500 490 40.0 35.0 22,500 20,000 17,150
LA J/: 390 260 33.0 30.0 10,850 12,870 7,800
MD l/: 190 195 52.0 53.0 8,600 9,880 10,335
MI : 750 510 55.0 50.0 33,920 41,250 25,500
MN o1/: 85 50 30.0 35.0 4,560 2,550 1,750
MS 2 520 300 30.0 25.0 15,300 15,600 7,500
MO : 2,000 1,550 38.0 37.0 86,950 76,000 57,350
MT : 2,500 1,900 35.0 33.0 54,000 87,500 62,700
NE : 2,250 2,050 38.0 35.0 55,350 85,500 71,750
NW o1/: 6 3 70.0 70.0 480 420 210
NI o1/: 29 31 43.0 44.0 1,365 1,247 1,364
NM oL/: 325 280 25.0 22.0 4,000 8,125 6,160
NY V/: 145 120 49.0 49.0 5,850 7,105 5,880
NC : 550 500 41.0 41.0 21,420 22,550 20,500
ND l/: 160 70 27.0 28.0 2,320 4,320 1,960
0H : 1,350 1,100 59.0 54.0 62,730 79,650 59,400
OK : 6,300 5,200 32.0 27.0 153,900 201,600 140,400
OR : 910 805 60.0 54.0 48,900 54,600 43,470
PA ol/: 210 175 50.0 51.0 7,955 10,500 8,925
SC : 380 285 38.0 39.0 17,835 14,440 11,115
sD : 1,600 1,300 36.0 38.0 35,100 57,600 49,400
TN : 490 300 =. 36.0 35.0 18,900 17,640 10,500
TX > 4,200 2,800 31.0 26.0 60,000 130,200 72,800
WT oY: 150 135 40.0 43.0 4,960 6,000 5,805
VA Il/: 260 235 47.0 - 48.0 12,650 12,220 11,280
WA : 2,200 900 63.0 52.0 68,900 138,600 46,800
Wi ood/: 12 11 46.0 45.0 516 552 495
WIoo1/: 185 120 53.0 $3.0 9,010 9,805 6,360
WY o1/: 205 195 29.0 28.0 4,246 §,945 5,460
US : 49,976 40,304 40.7 36.0 1,454,642 2,033,299 1,449,418

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production. Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-6 NASS, USDA


- CROP MOISTURE INDEX
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN S-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

vn) June 1, 1991

Asaverny se? 77 |
ons ¢
1 SLIGHTLY
ORY

JOIST.
= SAMAI
TTY

asl

NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY — tesed on protminery reper

DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

ia June 1, 1991
if Mext Chast have 18, 1001
Qa
' ‘ ‘7
44 Le om Ww motsT,
4 \ pgsyene py) SEVERE 4
erin S
\ Q tos) = mole
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7) “7 7 ep nen
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SEVERE, / a4)
7 CA) ‘ a
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moisy, a Ne / moist
ROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PALMER): DEPICTS PROS mooenaTe
ie ea voter
0 DEEP PERCDUATIONS AS Ls RAPatRARGR RAT Iby,
Bareess"oh ta WATER evel SiVE Eeoaon DEST GRATT DIS
AS! A -
rioiea Pen Rear ee ae
LIMITATIONS, «1S * poy ch YE OF SHORE. TERN (FE
ST
Boer cn eta CROP POISTIRE TRDEXS WOMM/USDA JOINT AGGICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY. snndon senior pore
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1991 B-1 NASS, USDA


Cherries

Production

Total 1/
fren rr acne wen eet enw en wenencnersenenwnn : Indicated
1989 : 1990 : 1991 2/
Tons
Sweet :
CA : 26,000 22,000 36,000
1D : 2,700 2,000 500
MT : 3/ 280 3/
OR 3 52,000 48,000 33,000
UT : 1,700 1,400 800
WA : 84,000 66,000 50,000
Total : 166,400 139,680 120,300
Million Pounds
Tart
co 0.5 1.0 1.3
OR 15.0 7.5 5.0
UT 24.0 15.5 19.0
Total 39.5 24.0 25.3

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold: sweet cherries
(tons), 1989- 2,300, 1990- 21,580, tart cherries (million pounds), 1989- 1.6,
1990- 2.1. 2/ Release date of the first forecast for the Great Lakes States
(NY, PA, and MI) for sweet and tart varieties, plus WI for tart varieties, is
June 20. 3/ No commercial production due to frost.

Spring Potatoes

Yield : Production

1990 : 1991 : 1990 : 1991 : 1989 : 1990 : 1991

AL 5.7 3.5 150 140 1,296 855 490
AZ 6.9 6.0 260 290 1,827 1,794 1,740
CA 22.5 20.7 375 375 7,875 8,438 7,763
FL :

Hastings : 28.7 27.0 240 190 5,460 6,888 5,130
Other : 8.3 8.4 220 175 1,400 1,826 1,470
LA l/ : 27

NC >: 16.2 17.0 200 175 2,184 3,240 2,975
TM : 6.8 4.8 165 165 783 1,122 792
US : 95.1 87.4 254 233 20,852 24,163 20,360
1/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1991 A-9 NASS, USDA


totaling 1,915 acres, dropped 1 percent below last month and 19 percent below
a year ago. Mostly sunny skies and a few light showers over major papaya
producing areas dominated May weather.

Oranges: The U.S. June 1 all orange production forecast is 7.89 million

tons for the 1990-91 season, down 1 percent from the May 1 forecast
but 2 percent more than the 1989-90 season. The Florida crop is 152 million
boxes, down 1 percent from May 1 but up 37 percent from last season's freeze
damaged crop. Production of early mid-season oranges this season in Florida
is 87.5 million boxes. Harvest is complete. The Florida Valencia forecast,
at 64.0 million boxes, is down 2 percent from May 1 but up 52 percent from
last season's utilized production. Harvest is 98 percent complete.

The California Navel forecast remains unchanged at 15.8 million boxes,

64 percent less than the 1989-90 crop. Harvest is complete. California's
Valencia forecast is 11.0 million boxes, unchanged from last month but

59 percent lower than last season. The sharp decrease in California orange
production is due to the December 1990 freeze.

The all orange forecast for Arizona, which was carried forward from the

April 1 forecast, is 1.65 million boxes, 5 percent higher than last season's
production. Due to the severe December 1989, freeze the 1990-91 Texas orange
crop was virtually eliminated.

Changes in U.S. orange production between the June 1] forecast and final
production averaged 115,000 tons over the past ten seasons, ranging from a low
of 14,000 tons in 1989-90 to a high of 250,000 tons in the 1980-81 season.

Florida Frozen Concentrated Juice Yield: The 1990-9] forecast of the Frozen

Concentrated Orange Juice Yield
(FCOJ) for Florida remains at 1.45 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The
forecast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors
Association. The freeze damaged 1989-90 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was
1.23 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

Grapefruit: The June 1 grapefruit forecast is 2.25 million tons, 64,000 tons
lower than May 1 but 273,000 tons above last season. The Florida

all grapefruit forecast, at 45.1 million boxes, is down 3 percent from last

month but 26 percent greater than last year's freeze reduced crop. Harvest is

99 percent complete. The forecast of “White Seedless" grapefruit, at

21.7 million boxes, is down 6 percent from the May 1 forecast. The "Colored

Seedless" forecast of 21.8 million boxes is 1 percent below last month. Seedy

{Ouncan) grapefruit is unchanged from the May 1 forecast of 1.60 million

OXxes.

The California "Desert Valley" grapefruit forecast, which was carried forward
from April 1, is 3.50 million boxes, 5 percent below the 1989-90 level.
California's "Other Areas" grapefruit forecast, which was also carried forward
from the April 1 forecast, is 4.50 million boxes, 22 percent less than last
season.

Arizona's forecast, carried forward from April 1, is 2.30 million boxes,
5 percent more than last season. Because of the severe freeze of December

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 B-7 NASS, USDA


Crop ¢ Agricultural
. Statistics
Production

Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released June 11, 1991, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts refer
to June 1, 1991.

Hard Red Winter Up 2 Percent
Soft Red Winter Down 13 Percent

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.45 billion bushels, off 3 percent
from May 1 and down 29 percent from 1990. Yields are now expected to average
36.0 bushels per acre, down 0.9 and 4.7 bushels per acre from May 1 and 1990,
respectively. Sharp declines in most Soft Red Winter yields paved the way for
the overall decline in winter wheat production.

Peach production, including California's Clingstone crop, is forecast at

2.59 billion pounds, 18 percent more than last year and 1] percent above 1989.
Freestone production is forecast at 1.62 billion pounds, up 36 percent from
1990 and 21 percent more than 1989. The California Clingstone crop, at

970 million pounds, is 4 percent less than a year ago. The Ohio Valley and
East Coast States had limited freeze damage this year.

Bartlett Pear production, in the 3 Pacific Coast States, is forecast at
515,000 tons, down 10 percent from last year and down 1] percent from 1989.
The cool spring has slowed crop development.

Sweet Cherry production, in the six Western States, is forecast at

120,300 tons, a decrease of 14 percent from 1990 and 28 percent less than
1989. A significant increase in California could not offset decreases in the
other States.

Almond production is forecast at 450 million pounds, shelled basis, unchanged
from last month's forecast but 32 percent below the 1990 production. Nuts
seem to be sizing well and water supplies appear adequate.

Index is located at the end of this report. For additional information, call
(202) 447-2127. Office hours are 8:00 to 4:30 ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (6-91)


All Oranges
A

Temples
FL

Grapefruit, White
Seedless

FL
Grapefruit, Colored
eedless

Other Grapefruit
FL
All Grapefruit
AZ
CA
Desert

Other Areas
Total

4

~<
jn
~

5
3
ca]
Ps
a
>
~N

& Navel 3/:
4

eo al
Re

oO
>
folie
SSN

550
34,000
85,300

17200
1213050
1,150
247900
61,300

650
88,000

1,700
58,900

15850
2097050

3,750
27,700

23,700
3,350
1,950

380
44,100
68,100

1050

1133630

1,190
26,800
42; 100
155
70,245
1,570
70,900
110} 200
1; 205
183875
1,400

18,000

16,300
1,400
2,200

3,700
5,800

550
15,800
87,500

103,850
1,100
11,000
64,000
76,100
1,650
26,800
151,500
179,950

2,500
21,700

21,800
1,600
2,300
3,500
43500
8,000

45,100

55,400

650

21
1,275
3,839

§1
5,186

43
934
2,758
28
3,763

64
2,209
6,597

79
8,949

169
1,177

1,007
142
63

112
151
263
2,326
192
2,844

25
76
138
239

144
615
759

14
1,654
33064
44
4,776
44

1,005
1,895
7
2,951
58
2,659
4,959
51
7,727

63
765

693

922

927

Crop Production
June 1991

A-12

Agricultura] Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts

Production

Crop and State

warner nnn nn nnn enn enna Ind
1989 1990 1991
Tons
Plums .
CA 216,000 222,000 210,000
Prunes (dried basis)
CA 226,000 147,000 180,000
Apricots
CA : 118,000 115,000 95,000
UT : 400 250 100
WA : 1,600 7,200 5,000
US : 120,000 122,450 100,100
Nectarines H
CA 200,000 211,000 210,000
1,000 Pounds
Almonds (shelled basis)
CA 490,000 660,000 450,000

1/ Apricots - includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):
U.S. 1989 - 1,050, 1990 - 2,010.

Papayas - Hawaii

Area Fresh Production

Harvested

1990 1991

-e-- Acres -----~-- ----~ 1,000 Pounds -----

Apr: 3,955 3,435 2,435 1,940 4,780 3,765

May : 3,885 3,310 2,365 1,915 5,120 33700
Jun: 3,850 2,370 4,285

Jul 3,885 2,405 3,145

Aug 3,760 2,175 6,160

Sep 3,695 2,220 4,815

Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-May 24,225 18,775
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1991 A-11 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed Condition 1/

State : Average : 1990 1991 : State : Average : 1990 : 1991
: 1980-89 : : 1980-89 : :
Percent Percent

AL : 75 90 98 84 70 75
AZ : 77 43 85 91 92 95
AR : 85 78 89 90 94 90
CA : 84 50 66 72 47 64
co : 80 74 79 88 91 91
CT : 90 91 96 83 92 94
DE : 86 100 75 70 41 77
FL : 63 61 88 87 90 88
GA : 69 73 94 84 86 77
1D : 85 79 89 88 73 80
TL : 86 87 97 89 90 82
IN : 87 90 98 92 92 95
IA : 81 94 98 69 73 94
KS : 84 93 84 71 78 100
KY : 87 96 100 86 90 89
LA : 79 83 76 71 72 79
ME : 91 95 90 84 58 82
MD : 88 100 80 91 91 96
MA : 92 93 96 89 89 82
MI : 84 93 95 84 83 85
MN : 80 80 98 86 93 88
MS : 80 81 84 83 85 89
MO : 81 93 99 84 88 99
MT : 75 85 91

NE t 82 79 92 80 79 87

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-8 NASS, USDA


As of June 2, 1991, heading had begun in all major producing States except
Montana. Conditions are mixed. Wetness has fostered a myriad of disease
problems in many Soft Red Winter producing States. Sharp yield declines from
last month are indicated in Illinois, Kentucky, and most of the Delta Soft Red
areas. The drops lessen toward the eastern areas. These declines more than
offset modest increases in some of the principal Hard Red Winter States.
Montana's yield increase was offset by a decline in harvested area. -

Durum Wheat: Production is forecast at 2.58 million bushels in Arizona as of
June 1, 1991. California's production forecast is 3.15 million
bushels, down 5 percent from May 1,

Arizona's small grains are rated in good to excellent condition. As of
June 2, 19 percent of the area was harvested, trailing both last year and the
5-year average. Harvest is underway in California's Imperial Valley.

Pasture and Range Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on June 1,

for the 48 contiguous States, was 87 percent,
8 points above last year and 7 points above the 1980-89 average for the date.
This is the highest June 1 condition since 1982. Conditions were more
favorable than last year in 35 States; less favorable in 12 States, and
unchanged in 1 State.

Pasture and range feed condition was good to excellent in 39 States, poor to
fair in 8 States, and very poor in only 1 State (New Mexico). .

Sweet Cherries: Production in the six western States is forecast at
bel 39 120,300 tons, 14 percent less than last year and 28 percent
elow 1989.

Continued cool weather in California during May allowed fruit that set late to
mature normally. Up significantly from last year's crop that was devastated
by rains, this crop appears in good condition. Picking is approximately two
weeks later than normal.

Montana's crop is a failure. Extremely low winter temperatures killed almost
all the fruit buds and caused extensive tree damage.

In Oregon, the December cold weather also caused limited damage in the Dallas
area and Willamette Valley, but extensive damage occurred in the Milton-
Freewater area.

Utah's prospects were hurt by the cold weather in December and poor
pollination weather.

Extremely cold winter weather in Washington caused bud damage, bud kill, and .
some tree damage. Insulation was lacking during the cold snap because of low
soil moisture and no snow cover. Temperatures as low as -27°F were recorded
in some orchards. aan

Tart Cherries: Production in Colorado, Oregon, and Utah is forecast at
25.3 million pounds, 5 percent more than a year ago but
36 percent less than 1989.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 B-4 NASS, USDA


INDEX

Page
Table Narrative

AlMONdS...... cc cee cece cece cece teen cnet ence eeeeenees A-11 B-6
APViCOts.. eee eee cece cece e ete eee n eee eeeneeee A-11 B-6
Beet Pulp... cece cece eee cere eee e nent ereeneeees A-17

CHEVVieS..... cece cece eee cece eee e tee e nen e eee eeneeenee A- 9 B-4
CITVUS FLUit. cc. ccc cece c cece cette eect eee rent eeeeeee A-12 B-7
Crop Moisture MapS......... ccc cece cece cette ee eeeees B- 1

HOPS... ccc ccc cece cece eee e centr eee tee e ences eet eeeeseene A-14 B-9
MOTASSOS..... cece eee ccc e cece cette eee eet e tence tensa A-17

NectarineS....... cc cece eee ee cet e cece cence te eenenees A-11 B-6
PapayaS..........2-065 bec e eee e er seceneerce se eec ence A-11 B-6
Pasture and Range Feed Condition..............ceeeeeee A- 8 B-4
PeacheS..... cece eee e cece eet e teen eee eeteetveeeeeees A-10 B-5
Pears, Bartlett..... 0... cece cece cece cece cence tence enee A-13 8-8
PLUMS 006. t eee ence ree nesceeees A-11 B-6
Potatoes, Spring.......cccceee eee e cece ence eneneeeeee A- 9 B-5
Prunes, Dried.......sceeseeceeteceeeseeeeeceseeeeeenes A-1l B-6
Reliability Statement..........ccec cece cece eee e een ees A- 2

BSF A-17 B-9
SugarDeets..... ce ceceececceeere ce teeeeneeeteeeceeneees A-15 B-9
SUQAVCANE.. LL eee ee eee cece cece e eee e eee e eet eee erence A-16 B-9
Sweetpotatoes.....cccecccsencccserseccreeeessceseaeees A-18 B-9
US Summary... ... ccc cece ccc cece cece cece cece teen eee neee A- 4

Wheat, by Classes........ cece eect eee eee eter e scenes A- 7

Wheat, Winter... ..... ccc cece eect ccc cere e teen e ee eeees A- 6 B-3
Wheat, Durum.......... cece eee e eee e cece eee eee eee ees A-7 B-4
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1991 B-10 NASS, USDA


United States Crop Summary - Area Planted and Harvested
(Domestic Units)

Crop : : Indicated: : Indicated
1990 : 1991 : 1990: 1991
° - 1,000 Acres
Winter Wheat : 56,998 51,033 49,976 40,304
Spring Potatoes 2 96.2 89.1 95.1 87.4

United States Crop Summary - Yield per Acre and Production
(Domestic Units)

1991

—--~ 1,000

Winter Wheat Bu: 40.7 36.0 2,033,299 1,495,943 1,449,418
Spring Potatoes Cwt : 254 233 24,163 20,497 20,360
Pasture and :

Range Feed 1/ Pct : 79 87
Peaches lb : 2,205,200 2,594,500
Apricots Ton : 122.5 100.1
Nectarines (Ca) "oy 211.0 210.0
Plums (Ca) "3 222.0 210.0
Dried Prunes (Ca) "oy 147.0 180.0
Almonds (Ca) lb : 660,000 450,000 450,000
Citrus Fruits 2/ : 1989-90 1990-91 1990-91

Oranges Ton: 7,727 7,931 7,886

Grapefruit "oo: 1,981 2,318 2,254

1/ Pasture and Range Feed Condition as of first of month. The 1980-89
average is 80 percent. 2/ Season begins with bloom of the first year shown
and ends with the completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-4 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets 1/

Area : Area
Planted 3 Harvested

1990 2/

CA 176.0 172.0 169.0 167.0 27.3
co 40.6 40.8 40.0 40.0 22.8
ID 179.0 188.0 177.0 186.0 22.8
MI 154.0 160.0 150.0 157.0 17.1
MN 342.0 368.0 341.0 364.0 16.0
MT §2.7 55.2 51.9 55.1 19.9
NE 70.1 75.1 62.2 71.0 18.8
ND 180.2 193.9 180.1 193.2 15.7
OH 13.6 20.0 11.9 19.2 16.7
OR 15.9 17.2 16.2 16.7 25.7
TMX 36.6 41.9 35.3 41.0 21.0
WY 61.8 65.0 59.3 63.8 19.2
Oth 4/: 1.9 2.3 1.6 2.2 27.5

US + 1,324.4 1,399.4 1,294.5 1,376.2 19.4 20.0

~ Production ot Price Per Ton Value of Production

1989 1990 2/ 1989 : 1990 3/ 1989 1990 3/

--- 1,000 Tons --- --- Dollars --- -- 1,000 Dollars --
CA : 4,614 4,359 42.30 195,172
co : 912 944 43.70 39,854
1D : 4,038 4,836 43.60 176,057
MI : 2,565 3,266 41.90 107,474
MN H 5,456 5,387 40.80 222,605
MT : 1,033 1,240 43.60 45,039
NE : 1,169 1,491 43.20 50,501
ND : 2,828 2,782 40.20 113,686
OH : 199 355 40.80 8,119
OR H 391 488 40.80 15,953
TM : 743 1,017 41.30 30,686
WY : 1,139 1,308 45.10 51,369
Oth 4/: 44 65 40.50 1,783
US : 25,131 27,538 42.10 1,058,298

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in California. 2/ Revised. 3/ Estimates are not available. U.S.
marketing year average price, value of production and parity price will be
published in “Agricultural Prices," released July 31, 1991. State estimates
will pe published in “Crop Values" to be released January 1992. 4/ Includes
NM and WA.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-15 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets Sliced 1/

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in California.

Sugar Production

: Sugar, Raw Value Sugar
freee wee nen n nnn nnn nn nr en sen eroreorsorna= 2 Production

H : Yield Per Ton : Refined

State : Production : of Cane or Beets : Basis
1989 1990 1/: 1989 1990 Vi: 1990 1/
1,000 Tons -- --- Pounds --~ -- 1,000 Tons --

Cane Sugar

FL 1,399 1,806 220 243 1,307 1,688
864 820 244 251 807 766
844 438 227 211 789 409
69 88 166 193 64 82
3,176 3,152 226 238 2,967 2,945
3,442 3,839 274 279 3,217 3,588

6,184

: Production
Product and State 2 Unit: 9 $------2--------------------------
: 1989 1990 1/
Su ugarcane Products : Thousands
Blackstrap Molasses-80° Brix 2/ : :
: Gallon : 100,042 104,131
it : Gallon : 3/40;940 3/38, 980
LA t Gallon : 39,960 25,695
TM : Gallon : ll, 3799 8,062
US : Gallon : 192? 741 176,868
Edible Molasses :
LA : Gallon : 1,990 1,405
US : Gallon : 1,990 1,405
Sugarbeet Products - US : :
lolasses : Gallon : 182,941 178,179
Pulp : :
Mol asses : Ton : 1,096 1,178
Dried : Ton H 326 588
Wet : Ton : 188 34

1/ Sugarcane products revised. 2/ Includes high-test molasses from frozen
cane. 3/ 85° Brix.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-17 NASS, USDA


of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks,
production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then
ade if data relationships warrant changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1
winter wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error,”
a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by
expressing the deviation between the May 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1971-1990 20-year period; the square root of the
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 winter wheat production forecast
is 5.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
production forecast of 1.45 billion bushels will not be above or below the
final estimate by more than 5.7 percent or approximately 82.6 million bushels.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will
not exceed 9.8 percent or approximately 142 million bushels. Differences
between the June 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate
during the past 10 years have averaged 58 million bushels, ranging from 8
million to 105 million bushels. The June 1 forecast has been below the final
estimate 4 times and above 6 times. This does not imply that the June 1
winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-3 NASS, USDA



1989, the 1990-91 Texas grapefruit crop was virtually eliminated. No
forecasts were made this season.

The change in U.S. grapefruit production between the June 1 forecast and final
production averaged 25,100 tons over the past ten seasons, ranging from a low
of zero tons in 1987-88 to a high of 72,000 tons in the 1981-82 season.

Tangerines: The U.S. all tangerine forecast of 166,000 tons is unchanged from
last month and 1 percent greater than jast season.

This forecast includes Dancy, Robinson, Honey, and Sunburst varieties of
tangerines in Florida, as well as production of California and Arizona
tangerines. Florida Sunburst tangerines are included in the State and U.S.
totals beginning with the 1989-90 season. Production estimates shown for
previous Seasons do not include this new variety of tangerine.

The Florida forecast is 1.95 million boxes, unchanged from May 1 but
15 percent above the 1989-90 production. Florida harvest is complete.
Arizona and California production forecasts were carried forward at
650,000 boxes and 1.30 million boxes, respectively.

Tangelos: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-early citrus fruit, is fore-
cast at 2.65 million boxes, unchanged from the previous month, and
is 10 percent below last season's utilized production. Harvest is complete.

Temples: The forecast of temple production in Florida, at 2.50 million boxes,
is unchanged from May 1, and is 79 percent greater than last
season's utilized production. Harvest is virtually complete.

Florida Citrus: Groves and trees in Florida's citrus belt_are in near excel-
. lent condition. Rainfall has been generally above normal in
virtually all citrus growing counties. The near ideal growing conditions have
produced an abundance of new foliage on trees of all ages. The new crop fruit
are sizing well. Valencia harvest was active the first of May but declined

during the month as supplies were depleted. Grapefruit harvest neared
completion. Primary activities by caretakers included cutting and spraying
herbicides on cover crops, completing post-bloom nutritional sprays, and
fertilizing trees of all ages.

California Fruits and Nuts: Normal cultural activities such as spraying,

thinning, irrigating, and weed control were
active throughout May. Sulfur application, bunch thinning, and suckering were
active in grape vineyards. Pruning and replanting of freeze damaged citrus
and avocado trees increased. Cool weather has delayed fruit and nut maturity.
Walnut orchards in the northern growing areas completed their bloom and began
to leaf out. Olives, persimmons, and pomegranates started to bloom. Harvest
began for cherries, desert table grapes, and early variety stonefruit
(apricots, nectarines, peaches, and plums). Harvesting of Hass variety
avocados began. In Southern California, citrus harvest continued.

Bartlett Pears: Production in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast
at 515,000 tons, down 10 percent from last year and 1 percent
Tess than 1989.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 B-8 NASS, USDA



Reliability of June 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between May 22 and June 3 ta gather information on
expected yield as of June 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in 15
States that accounted for 85 percent of the 1990 production. Farm operators
were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek
permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat
fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's
maturity. In early fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in late
boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads
that would be harvested. A 5-year historical head weight is used until the
crop matures to the point that heads can be clipped, threashed, and weighed.
The number of heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot can then be
expanded to an estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss
is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until
the crop reaches maturity and or harvested on the final visit.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 10,000 winter
wheat producers representing all major production areas. These producers were
selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable
winter wheat yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed
throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the
s@ason progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness
and consistency with historical estimates. The indications were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and
previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses
the survey indications and the State analysis to prepare the published June I
orecasts.

Revision Policy: The June 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead,
a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end
(continued on next page)

This report was approved on June 11, 1991, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the Nationa) Agricultura] Statistics Service's Agriculture
Statistics Board.

Boma fob feb Me

Acting Secretary of gricultura atistics Boar
Agriculture Chairperson
Bruce L. Gardner Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1991 A-2 NASS, USDA


The next Crop Production report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on July 11,
1991.

The July report will include indicated area harvested, yield, and production
as of July 1 for all wheat, winter wheat, durum, and other spring wheat, oats,
barley, flue-cured tobacco, and summer potatoes. Planted acres and indicated
area harvested for fall potatoes. Percent of acreage planted for 1991 fall
potatoes by types (11 major States). Acreage planted for certified seed
potatoes (fall States).

Indicated production of wheat by classes (U.S.), commercial apples, apricots,
peaches, pears, sweet cherries, tart cherries (Western States), nectarines,
almonds, walnuts, and 1990-91 citrus fruits, grapes (California), prunes
(California), and plums (California); papaya acreage and production; condition
of pastures and ranges.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 447-2127
Field Crops Section (202) 447-3843
Bill Dowdy, Head
Kirby Cavett, Minor Oilseeds (202) 447-3180
Marty Owens, Rice, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 447-2157
Vaughn Siegenthaler, Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 447-8068
Charles Van Lahr, Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 447-7369
Herb Vanderberry, Soybeans (202) 447-9526
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section (202) 447-3843
Steve Ropel, Head
Jim Brewster, Fruits, Fresh Vegetables (202) 447-7688
Arvin Budge, Potatoes, Dry Beans, Processing Vegetables (202) 447-4285
Kevin Hintzman, Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 447-5412
Roger Latham, Cotton, Peanuts (202) 447-5944
Darwin Ransom, Sugar, Tobacco, Hay (202) 447-7621

Subscription Information: To subscribe to NASS reports or to order single

copies, call toll free, 1-800-999-6779 (weekdays
8:30-5:00 ET). You may write: ERS/NASS, P.O. Box 1608, Rockville, MD.
20849-1608.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 B-11 NASS, USDA



Citrus Fruit Footnotes

The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

Net Ibs per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA
Desert & AZ-64, CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos &
Temples-90; tangerines-CA & AZ-75, FL-95.

Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

Estimates for current year are carried forward from earlier forcast.

Due to the severe freeze of December 1989, the 1990-91 TX citrus crops are
virtually eliminated and forecasts will not be issued this season unless
sufficient commercial supplies become available.

FL “all tangerines" include sunburst tangerines beginning with the 1989-90
season.

Bartlett Pears

CA : 298,000 314,000 305,000

OR : 67,000 83,000 65,000
WA : 157,000 177,000 145,000
US : 522,000 574,000 515,000
l/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1991 A-13 NASS, USDA



Sugarcane

: Area Harvested Yield 1/ Production 1/
State a al aa aaa

1989 ; 1990 2/ : 1989 1990 2/ 1989
- w---~ Tons ----- =-- 1,000 Tons ---
For Sugar:
FL 3 405.0 419.0 31.4 35.5 12,717 14,874
HI 3 74.7 72.0 94.8 90.8 7,082 6,538
LA : 290.0 201.0 25.7 20.6 7,440 4,150
TMX : 33.6 34.4 24.7 26.5 830 913
US : 803.3 726.4 34.9 36.4 28,069 26,475
For Seed :
FL : 15.0 15.0 31.4 35.5 471 533
HI : 6.7 7.0 29.1 26.4 195 185
LA : 25.0 44.0 25.7 20.6 643 906
1X : 1.9 1.8 25.3 20.6 48 37
US : 48.6 67.8 27.9 24.5 1,357 1,661
For Sugar :
And Seed
FL : 420.0 434.0 31.4 35.5 13,188 15,407
HI : 81.4 79.0 89.4 85.1 7,277 6,723
LA : 315.0 245.0 25.7 20.6 8,083 5,056
TX : 35.5 36.2 24.7 26.2 878 950
US : 9 794.2 34.5 35.4 29,426 28,136
1990 4/
---- Dollars --~- Dollars woeeen- +--+
FL : 30.70 390,412 404,872
HI : 29.70 210,335 216,127
LA : 27.00 200,880 218,241
TX > 21.00 17,430 18,438
US : 29.20 819,057 857,678

1/ Yield and production refer to net weight. 2/ Revised. 3/ Price per ton
of cane for sugar used in evaluating value of production for seed. 4/ Esti-
mates are not available. U.S. marketing year average price, value of
production, and parity price will be published in “Agricultural Prices,"
released July 31, 1991. State estimates will be published in "Crop Values" to
be released January 1992.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1991 A-16 NASS, USDA