10

- i 

### CHAPTER 10: NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ................................

................................................................ ......... 10 -1

10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENCIES FOR BASE AND STANDARDS CASES .............. 10 -2

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ................................................................

............... 10 -5

10.3.1 Primary Energy Savings ................................................................

................................ 10 -5

10.3.2 Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Savings ................................................................

.................... 10 -6

10.3.3 Inputs to National Energy Savings ................................................................

................ 10 -7

10.3.3.1 Shipments ................................

................................................................ ..... 10 -7

10.3.3.2 Product Stock ................................................................

............................... 10 -8

10.3.3.3 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit ................................

........................ 10 -8

10.3.3.4 National Annual Energy Consumption ................................

........................ 10 -8

10.3.3.5 Site- to -Power Plant Conversion Factors ................................

...................... 10 -8

10.3.3.1 Primary Energy to Full-Fuel-Cycle Multipliers ................................

........... 10 -9

10.3.3.2 Rebound Rate Factor ................................................................

.................... 10 -9

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE ................................................................

............................. 10 -10

10.4.1 Definition ................................

................................................................ ..................... 10 -10

10.4.2 Inputs to Net Present Value ................................................................

......................... 10 -11

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit ................................................................

...... 10 -12

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit................................

................... 10 -13

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Increases in Installed Cost ................................

................... 10 -13

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost ................................

................... 10 -13

10.4.2.5 Discount Factors ................................................................

........................ 10 -14

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs ................................................................

............... 10 -14

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings ................................................................

........... 10 -14

10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATI ONS

................................................................ .............. 10 -15

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs ................................

................................................................ ....... 10 -15

10.5.2 Results of National Energy Savings Calculations ................................

....................... 10 -16

10.5.3 Annual Costs and Savings ................................................................

........................... 10 -16

10.5.4 Results of Net Present Value Calculations ................................................................

.. 10 -17

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.1.1 Candidate Standard Levels for Dehumidifiers— IEF* (Units: L/kWh†) ........... 10 -2

Table 10.2.1 Portable Dehumidifiers ≤20.00 Pints/Day: Base- and Standards -Case

Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................................................ ........ 10 -3

Table 10.2.2 Portable Dehumidifiers 20.01– 30.00 Pints/Day: Base- and Standards-Case

Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................................................ ........ 10 -3

Table 10.2.3 Portable Dehumidifiers 30.01– 35.00 Pints/Day: Base- and Standards-Case

Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................................................ ........ 10 -410

- ii



### Table 10.2.4 Portable Dehumidifiers 35.01– 45.00 Pints/Day: Base- and Standards-Case

Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................................................ ........ 10 -4

Table 10.2.5 Portable Dehumidifiers >45.00 Pints/Day: Base- and Standards -Case

Effic iency Distributions in 2019

................................................................ ........ 10 -4

Table 10.2.6 Whole-Home Dehumidifiers ≤8.0 ft 3 

### Case Volume: Base- and StandardsCase Efficiency Distributions in 2019 ................................

............................... 10 -5

Table 10.2.7 Whole-Home Dehumidifiers >8.0 ft 3 

### Case Volume: Base- and StandardsCase Efficiency Distributions in 2019 ................................

............................... 10 -5

Table 10.5.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings (Unit: Quads) ................................

....... 10 -16

Table 10.5.3 Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings (Unit: Quads) ................................ 10 -16

Table 10.2.8 Cumulative NPV Results Based on 3-Percent Discount Rate (Billion,

2012$) ................................

................................................................ .............. 10 -18

Table 10.2.9 Cumulative NPV Results Based on 7-Percent Discount Rate (Billion,

2012$) ................................

................................................................ .............. 10 -18

FIGURE

Figure 10-1 Site- to -Power Plant Energy Conversion Factor s for Dehumidifiers .................. 10 -9 Figure 10-2 Non-Discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases and Annual Operating

Cost Savings for Dehumidifiers, CSL 3 ................................

.......................... 10 -1710-1 

### CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter of the preliminary technical support document (TSD) describes the method the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used to estimate the effects on national energy consumption of candidate standard levels (CSLs) for dehumidifiers. DOE evaluated the following effects: (1) national energy savings (NES) attributable to each potential standard; (2) the monetary value of energy savings to consumers of dehumidifiers; (3) increased total installed

cost of the products because of standards; and (4) the net present value (NPV) of energy savings ( i.e. , the difference between the operational savings and increased total installed costs).

DOE determined both the NES and NPV for all the C SLs considered for the product

classes of both portable and whole-home dehumidifiers. It performed all calculations using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet ( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/dishwashers.html ). The spreadsheets, which implement the National Impact Analysis (NIA) model, combine the calculations for determining the NES and NPV with input from the shipments model (chapter 9 of the preliminary TSD). Details and instructions for using the NIA model are provided in appendix 10A of this preliminary TSD

.

Chapter 9 of this preliminary TSD provides a detailed description of the shipments model that DOE used to forecast future purchases of dehumidifiers. Chapter 9 includes detailed descriptions of consumers’ sensitivities to total installed cost and operating cost, and how DOE captured those sensitivities within the model.

To estimate the national impacts of new standards for all the product classes considered in this rulemaking, DOE allocated the product cost and annual energy consumption of each representative product class to all product classes within its category.

DO E analyzed the benefits and burdens of four CSLs for five product classes of portable

dehumidifiers and two product classes of whole-home dehumidifiers. The CSLs were developed using combinations of efficiency levels for all seven product classes that DOE analyzed. Table

Error! Reference source not found. presents the CSLs and the corresponding efficiency levels

for dehumidifiers. CSL 4 represents the maximum technologically feasible (“max-tech ”) improvement in energy efficiency for dehumidifiers. C SL s 2 and 3 represent intermediate efficiency levels between CSLs 1 and 4. CSL 1 represents the first efficiency level considered

that exceeds baseline efficiency.10-2



### Table 10.1.1 Candidate Standard Levels for Dehumidifiers—IEF* (Units : L/kWh†)

CSL ≤ 20 .00

pints/day 20.01

-

30 .00 pints/day 30.01

-

35 .00 pints/day 35.01

-

45.00 pints/day > 45.00

pints/day ≤ 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume ( Whole

Home ) > 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume ( Whole

H ome)

Baseline 0.77 0.80 0.94 1.00 2.07 1.10 1.68

C SL 1 1.10 1.10 1.20 1.30 2.40 1.40 1.90

C SL 2 1.20 1.20 1.40 1.40 2.80 1.40 2.80

C SL 3 1.30 1.30 1.60 1.60 2.80 1.40 2.80

C SL 4 1.42 1.52 1.75 1.75 3.52 1.59 3.41
* IEF = Integrated energy factor, which includes energy consumed in standby, off, dehumidification, and fan-only

modes.

† L/kWh = Liters (of moisture removed) per kilowatt-hour (of energy consumed).



### 10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENCIES FOR BASE AND STANDARDS CASES

This section describes the method DOE used to forecast the energy efficiencies of

dehumidifiers for the base case and for each of the candidate standards cases. It provides efficiency distributions for all product classes of both portable and whole-home dehumidifiers.

A key factor in estimating NES and NPV is the trend in energy efficiency forecasted for the base case (without new standards) and each of the standards cases. In calculating the NES, per-unit annual energy consumption is a direct function of product efficiency. For the NPV, two inputs, the per-unit total installed cost and the per-unit annual operating cost, depend on efficiency. The first input, the per-unit total installed cost, is a direct function of efficiency. Because it is a function of annual energy use, the per-unit annual operating cost depends indirectly on product efficiency.

Using the shipment-weight ed efficiency of dehumidifiers for 201 3 as a starting point, DOE projected efficiencies for the base case based on assumptions regarding future improvements in efficiency and assumed an annual growth rate of 0.25 percent between 2019

and 2048.

DOE assumed a “roll-up” scenario to establish the shipment-weighted efficiency for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (2019). DOE assumed that product

efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. For its projected efficiencies of CSLs

, in addition to a “roll-up” scenario, DOE developed a shift scenario. In the shift scenario DOE applies an annual growth rate in average energy efficiency to the shipment-weighted integrated energy factors (SWIEF), as it is done in the base case. To develop standards case forecasted SWIEFs, DOE developed growth t rends for each candidate standard level that maintained the same per-unit average total installed cost difference for the year 2019 between the base case and each standards case over the entire forecast period (2019– 2048 ). DOE’s approach for developing standards case SWIEFs in10-3



### this manner assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the total installed cost versus efficiency relationship for each product class demonstrates an increasing cost rate for more efficient products, the SWIEF growth rate for each standards case is lower

than the SWIEF growth rate for the base case.

Chapter 10. through Table 10.2.7 show the base-case and CSL product efficiency distributions in 2019, based on the integrated energy factor (IEF) for each of the seven product

class es that DOE is considering. The CSLs are composed of efficiency levels analyzed in the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis (chapter 8 of the preliminary TSD). Also included in

the tables are the shipment-weighted integrated energy factors (SWI EF s ) and shipment-weighted annual energy use (SWAEU) associated with the base case and each C SL.

Table 10.2.1 Portable Dehumidifiers ≤20 .00 Pints/Day: Base- and Standards-Case

Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL C SL IEF Market Shares (%)

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

(L/kWh ) 1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 0.77 62 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.10 6 68 0 0 0

2 2 1.20 0 0 68 0 0

3 3 1.30 29 29 29 97 0

4 4 1.42 3 3 3 3 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh ) 0.96 1.17 1.24 1.30 1.42

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 517 405 381 360 331



### Table 10.2.2 Portable Dehumidifiers 20.0 1

– 30 .00 Pints/Day: Base - and Standards-Case

Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF

( L /kWh ) Market Share (%)

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 0.80 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.10 47 47 0 0 0

2 2 1.20 21 21 68 0 0

3 3 1.30 27 27 27 94 0

4 4 1.52 6 6 6 6 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh ) 1.20 1.20 1.24 1.31 1.52

SWAEU ( kWh/yr ) 550 550 527 499 43110-4



### Table 10.2.3 Portable Dehumidifiers 30.01

– 35 .00 Pints/Day: Base- and Standards-Case

Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF

( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 0.94 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.20 49 49 0 0 0

2 2 1.40 48 48 97 0 0

3 3 1.60 0 0 0 97 0

4 4 1.75 3 3 3 3 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.31 1.31 1.41 1.60 1.75

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 653 653 603 530 486



### Table 10.2.4 Portable Dehumidifiers 35.01

– 45.00 Pints/Day: Base - and Standards-Case

Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF

( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base

Case Candidate l Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 1.00 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.30 34 34 0 0 0

2 2 1.40 61 61 95 0 0

3 3 1.60 1 1 1 96 0

4 4 1.75 4 4 4 4 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.38 1.38 1.42 1.61 1.75

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 758 758 739 651 597



### Table 10.2.5 Portable Dehumidifiers > 45 .00 Pints/Day: Base- and Standards-Case

Effi ciency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF

( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 2.07 39 0 0 0 0

1 1 2.40 29 68 0 0 0

2 2, 3 2.80 16 16 84 84 0

3 4 3.52 16 16 16 16 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 2.52 2.64 2.92 2.92 3.52

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 933 958 971 971 1,04310-5



### Table 10.2.6 Whole-Home Dehumidifiers ≤8.0 ft 3 

### Case Volume: Base- and StandardsCase Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF

( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 1.10 25 0 0 0 0

1 1, 2, 3 1.40 19 44 44 44 0

2 4 1.59 56 56 56 56 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.43 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.59

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 1,131 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,185



### Table 10.2.7 Whole-Home Dehumidifiers > 8.0 ft 3 

### Case Volume: Base - and StandardsCase Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF

( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 1.68 22 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.90 46 68 0 0 0

2 2, 3 2.80 16 16 84 84 0

3 4 3.41 16 16 16 16 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 2.24 2.29 2.90 2.90 3.41

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 1,472 1,475 1,511 1,511 1,621



### Based on the assumption of a 0.25 percent growth rate in the efficiencies for the base case, DOE maintained the SWIEFs shown in Chapter 10. through Table 10.2.7 throughout the projection period, from 2019 to 2048

.

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

DOE calculated the national energy savings (NES) associated with the difference between the base case and each of the potential standards cases for dehumidifiers. DOE calculated cumulative energy savings from 2019 to 2048

.

10.3.1 Primary Energy Savings

DOE calculated annual NES as the difference between two projections: a base case (without new standards) and a standards case (with new standards). Positive values of NES

represent energy savings ( i.e. , national annual energy consumption under a standard is less than under the base case).10-6 

### ( )

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of the national annual energy savings throughout the forecast period, which starts in the compliance year (2019) and ends after 30 years (2048 ).

Th e calculation is represented by the following equation.

DOE calculated the national annual energy consumption by multiplying the number or stock of each product class (by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (also by vintage). The calculation of the national annual energy consumption is performed using the following equation.

DOE defined the quantities for the above expressions as follows.

AEC = National annual energy consumption each year in quadrillion British thermal units

(quads) summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V



### . NES y 

### = National annual energy savings (quads).

STOCK V 

### = Stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V surviving in the year for which

DOE calculated annual energy consumption.

UEC V 

### = Annual energy consumption per product in either kilowatt-hours (kWh) or million

Btus (MMBtu) (electricity and gas consumption are converted from site energy to source energy (quads) by applying a time-dependent conversion factor).

V = Year in which the product was purchased as a new unit.

y = Year in the forecast.

= Rebound rate factor = 1- rebound rate.

The stock of a product depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the product. As described in chapter 9 of the preliminary TSD, DOE projected dehumidifier shipments under the base and standards cases. To avoid including savings attributable to shipments displaced because of standards (consumers deciding not to buy higher-priced products), DOE used the projected standards-case shipments and, in turn, the standards-case stock, to calculate the AEC for the base

case.

10.3.2 Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Savings

DOE has historically presented the NES computed based on the primary energy savings

at the power plant, as described in the previous section. Per DOE’s 2011 Statement of Policy for10-7



### Adopting Full Fuel Cycle Analyses, DOE now uses full-fuel-cycle (hereafter, FFC) measures of energy use and emissions in its energy conservation standards analys es. 1 

### In addition to the primary energy used at the power plant to supply electricity to the site of use and account fortransmission and distribution losses, the FFC analysis also accounts for energy consumed upstream of the power plant in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing the primary fuels to the power plant, as described in appendix 10B.

As shown in the equation beow, the FFC national energy savings are obtained by multiplying the primary energy savings ( Error! Reference source not found. ) by the FFC multiplier computed for the same year,

.
( )

Where: =the FFC multiplier in y ear , and

All other variables were defined in Error! Reference source not found.

The cumulative FFC energy savings is calculated by summing the annual FFC energy saving

from 2019-20 9 7. ∑

10.3.3 Inputs to National Energy Savings

The inputs to the calculation of NES are:

 shipments,

 product stock ( STOCK V 

### ),

 annual energy consumption per unit ( UE C)

,

 national annual energy consumption ( AEC ),

 site- to -source conversion factor ( src_conv ) ,

 primary energy to full fuel cycle multipliers (μ), and

 rebound rate factor (RF).

10.3.3.1 Shipments

DOE projected shipments for the base case and all standards cases. Several factors, including total installed cost (purchase price plus installation costs ), operating cost, and product10-8



### lifetime, all affect projected shipments. Chapter 9 of the preliminary TSD, Shipments Analysis,

detail s the method DOE used to calculate and generate the shipments projections for

dehumidifiers.

10.3.3.2 Product Stock

The product stock in a given year is the number of products shipped from earlier years

that survive in th at year. The NIA model tracks the number of units shipped each year

. DOE assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is the survival function. Chapter 9 of the preliminary TSD provides additional details on the survival functions that DOE used for portable

and whole-home dehumidifiers.

10.3.3.3 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

DOE used the shipment-weighted annual energy use (SWAEU) defined in section 10.2 for the base case and standards cases, along with the data on AEC presented in chapters 7 and 8 of the preliminary TSD, to estimate the shipment-weighted average annual per-unit energy consumption under base and standards cases.

10.3.3.4 National Annual Energy Consumption

The national annual energy co n sumption is the product of the annual energy consumption per unit and the number of units of each vintage (V). The calculation of AEC accounts for differences in unit energy consumption from year to year. DOE used the equation below (as presented in section 10.3.1) to calculate annual energy consumption.

To determine national annual energy consumption, DOE calculated the annual energy consumption at the site and then applied a conversion factor to calculate primary energy consumption, as described below.

10.3.3.5 Site- to -Power Plant Conversion Factors

In determining AEC, DOE initially calculated the annual energy consumption at the site (for electricity, the energy in kWh consumed at the household or establishment). It then used site energy consumption to calculate primary (source) energy consumption by applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of

electrici ty

. Th e site- to -source conversion factor is a multiplicative factor used to convert site energy consumption into primary, or source, energy consumption expressed in quads (quadrillion Btus). DOE used annual site- to -power plant conversion factors based on the version of the10-9



### National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) a 

### that corresponds to EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook

20 13 ( AEO 2013 ). 2 

### The factors are marginal values, which represent the response of the power supply system to an incremental decrease in consumption. For electricity, the conversion factors change over time in response to projected changes in generation sources ( i.e., the types of power plants projected to provide electricity to the Nation). Figure 10 -1 sh ows the site- to -power plant

conversion factors from 2019 to 2048 . The value reported in AEO 2013 for 20 40 (the last year

covered ) was extrapolated through the end of the projection period.

Figure 10 -1 Site- to -Power Plant Energy Conversion Factors for Dehumidifiers

10.3.3.1 Primary Energy to Full-Fuel-Cycle Multipliers

For this preliminary analysis, DOE calculated FFC energy savings using a methodology described in appendix 10B. As discussed previously, the FFC energy savings are obtained by multiplying the primary energy savings at the power plant by the FFC multiplier. The estimated FFC multiplier (μ) is essentially constant, ranging between 1.040 and 1.041 from 2019 to 2077.

10.3.3.2 Rebound Rate Factor

A rebound effect accounts for increased usage of an appliance by consumers after the implementation of a standard, reducing the energy savings attributed to a standard. DOE

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration documentation. A useful summary is Na tional Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000 . DOE/EIA0581(2000), March 2000. EIA approves use of the name NEMS only to describe an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications, and the model is run under policy scenarios that are variations on EIA assumptions, DOE refers to the model as NEMS-BT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work was performed). NEMS-BT previously was called NEMS-BRS.10-10



### generally accounts for the direct rebound effect in its estimates of the NES. As discussed in chapter 2 of this TSD, for this preliminary analysis, DOE used a rebound rate of zero. DOE

welcomes data on rebound effects in dehumidifiers.

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

DOE calculated the net present value (NPV) of the increased product price and reduced operating cost associated with the difference between the base case and each potential standards

case for the dehumidifier product classes.

10.4.1 Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time-series of costs and savings. The NPV is described by the equation:

Where:

PVS = p resent value of operating cost savings, and

PVC = p resent value of increased total installed costs (including purchase price and

installation costs).

DOE determined the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions.

Where:

OCS = total annual savings in operating costs each year summed over vintages of the

product stock, STOCK V 

### ;
DF = d iscount factor in each year;

TIC = total annual increases in installed cost each year summed over vintages of the

product stock, STOCK V 

### ; and

y = y ear in the forecast.

DOE calculated the total annual consumer savings in operating cost by multiplying the number or stock of a given product class (by vintage) by its per-unit operating cost savings (also by vintage). DOE calculated the total annual increases in consumer product price by multiplying the number or shipments of the given product class (by v intage) by its per-unit increase in10-11



### consumer produc t cost (also by vintage). The calculation of total annual operating cost savings and total annual product price increases are represented by the following equations.

Where:

STOCK V 

### = stock of products of vintage V that survive in the year for which DOE calculated

annual energy consumption,

UOCS V 

### = annual operating cost savings per unit of vintage V

, V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit;

SHIP y 

### = shipments of products in year y ; and

UTIC y 

### = annual per-unit increase in installed product price in year y

.

DOE determined the total inc reased product price for each year from 2019 to 2048

. DOE determined the present value of operating cost savings for each year from 2019 to the year when all units purchased in 2048 will have been retired. DOE calculated costs and savings as the

difference between a standards case and a base case without new standards.

DOE developed a discount factor from the national discount rate and the number of years between the “present” (year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings.

10.4.2 Inputs to Net Present Value

The inputs to the calculation of NPV are:

 total installed cost per unit,

 annual operating cost savings per unit,

 total annual increases in product price,

 total annual savings in operating cost,

 d iscount factor,

 p resent value of costs, and

 p resent value of savings.

The increase in the total annual installed cost is equal to the annual change in the per-unit

total installed cost (difference between base and standards case) multiplied by the shipments

forecasted in the standards case.

The total annual operating cost savings are equal to the change in annual operating cost (difference between base and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments forecasted in10-12



### the standards case. As noted, DOE did not calculate operating cost savings using base-case shipments. The annual operating cost includes energy costs.

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit

The average annual product cost depends directly on efficiency. DOE therefore used the efficiency distributions presented in Chapter 10. through Table 10.2.7, along with the product price at various efficiency levels (presented in chapter 8 of the preliminary TSD ), to estimate the shipment-weighted average annual product cost under the base and standards cases. Table 10.4

. 1

shows the shipment-weighted average consumer product price based on the SW IEF s that correspond to the base case and each standards case for each product class in 201 9.

Table 10.4

. 1 Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and

Standards Cases

Product Class SWIEF &

Total Installed Cost Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

≤20 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 0.96 1.17 1.24 1.30 1.42

Total installed cost (2012$) $221 $221 $223 $227 $232

20.01

– 30 .00 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.20 1.20 1.24 1.31 1.52

Total installed cost (2012$) $234 $234 $236 $238 $249

30.01

– 35 .00 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.31 1.31 1.41 1.60 1.75

Total installed cost (2012$) $263 $263 $266 $275 $283

35.01

– 45.00 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.38 1.38 1.42 1.61 1.75

Total installed cost (2012$) $284 $284 $285 $294 $300

> 45.00 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 2.52 2.64 2.92 2.92 3.52

Total installed cost (2012$) $933 $958 $971 $971 $1,043

≤ 8.0 ft 3 case volume (whole

- home) SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.43 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.59

Total installed cost (2012$) $1,693 $1,699 $1,699 $1,699 $1,747

> 8.0 ft 3 case volume (whole

- home) SWIEF ( L /kWh) 2.24 2.29 2.90 2.90 3.41

Total installed cost (2012$) $2,034 $2,037 $2,073 $2,073 $2,183



### As noted in section 10.2, DOE assumed that projected efficiencies in the base case and CSLs remain frozen at the efficiency levels of 201 9. Because the per-unit total installed costs are a function of efficiency, DOE held the values constant over the projection period (2019

– 204 8 ).

To evaluate the effect of uncertainty regarding price trends, DOE examined the effect of

various product price forecasts on the consumer NPV for the considered CSLs for residential dehumidifiers. In addition to the default price trend, DOE considered separate product price sensitivity cases for portable dehumidifiers and whole-home dehumidifiers. For portable dehumidifiers, DOE considered a case for a low price decline based on estimating an experience10-13



### curve using Producer Price Index (PPI) data for “small electric household appliances” from 1983

to 2012. A case for high price decline was based on the price forecast of the “furniture and appliances” series from AEO 2013 . For whole-home dehumidifiers, a case for a low price decline was based on an exponential fit to the PPI from 1978 to 2012 for “air-conditioning, refrigeration, and forced air heating equipment. ” T he high price decline was based on the price forecast of the “furniture and appliances” series from AEO 2013 . The approach used to forecast the price trends

and the results of the sensitivity cases are described in appendix 10C of this preliminary TSD.

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit

The per-unit annual operating cost includes the costs for energy, repair, and maintenance. As described in chapter 8 of the preliminary TSD, DOE assumed that potential standards would

not increase maintenance and repair costs for any of the considered product classes. Therefore, DOE determined the per-unit annual operating cost savings based only on the energy cost savings attributable to a standard level. DOE determined the per-unit annual operating cost savings by multiplying the per-unit savings in annual energy consumption for each product class by the appropriate energy price.

As described in chapter 8, DOE forecasted energy prices based on EIA’s AEO 2013

. The energy price trends are described in chapter 8 of this preliminary TSD.

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Increases in Installed Cost

The total annual increase in installed cost for any given standards case is the product of the total per-unit increase in installed cost due to the standard and the number of units of each vintage. This approach accounts for differences in total installed cost from year to year. Below is the equation for calculating the increase in total annual installed cost for a given standards case (as introduced in section 10.4.1).

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost

The total annual savings in operating cost for any given standards case is the product of the annual operating cost savings per unit attributable to the standard and the number of units of each vintage. This approach accounts for differences in annual operating cost savings from year to year. Below is the equation for calculating the total annual operating cost savings for a given

standards case (a s introduced in section 10.4.1).10-14 

### 10.4.2.5 Discount Factors

DOE multiplies monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

Where:

R = discount rate,

Y = year of the monetary value, and

y P 

### = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE estimated national impacts using both a 3 -percent and a 7 -percent real discount rate, in accordance with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)’s guidance to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis ( OMB Circular A-4 , Sep tember 17, 2003), and section E, “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs,” therein. DOE defin es the present year as

2013

.

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs

The present value of increased installed costs is the increase in annual installed cost in each year ( i.e. , the difference between a standards case and base case), discounted to the present

and summed ov er the period for which DOE is considering the installation of products (that is,

from 2019 to 2048 ).

The increase in total installed cost refers to both product cost and installation cost associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated annual increases in installed costs as the difference in total installed cost for new products purchased each year multiplied by the shipments in the

standards case.

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings

The present value of operating cost savings is the annual operating cost savings (the

difference between the base case and a standards case) discounted to the present and summed over the period from the complian ce year, 201 9 , to the year when the last unit installed in 2048 is

retired from service. Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total annual operating cost savings are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that survive in a particular year.10-15



### 10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATIONS

The national impact analysis (NIA) model estimates the NES and NPV attributable to a given candidate standard level. The inputs to the NIA model were discussed in sections 10.3.2 (NES inputs) and 10.4.2 (NPV inputs). DOE generated the NES and NPV results using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet (( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/dishwashers.html ). Details and instructions for using the spreadsheet are provided in appendix 10A of this preliminary TSD.

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

Table 10.5

. 1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA model. The data source for each input is described briefly.

Table 10.5

. 1 Inputs to Calculation of National Energy Savings and Net Present Value

Input Data Source

Shipments Annual shipments from s hipments m odel

. ( S ee c hapter 9

. )

Effective d ate of s tandard 201 9

Base

- c ase forecasted efficiencies SW IEF determined in 201 9 for each of the consider ed product s classes

. SW I EF is held constant during the forecast period 201 9

– 204 8 . (See s ection 10.2

. )

Stan dards

- case efficiencies Roll

- up scenario assumed for determining SW IEF in 201 9 for

each standards case and for ea ch of the considered products

classes. SW IEF is held constant during the forecast period 201 9

– 204 8 . (See s ection 10.2.)

Annual e nergy c onsumption per u nit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of SW AEU . (See

s ection 10.3.2.3 .)

Total i nstalled c ost per u nit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of the efficiency

distribution . (See s ection 10.4.2.1.)

Energy c ost per u nit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of the annual energy consumption per unit and energy price s . (See chapter 8, for energy price s .)

Repair and m aintenance c ost s per u nit S tandards are assumed to induce n o changes to repair or maintenance cost s

. Forecast of installed cost per unit Price forecast based on historical PPI data.

Forecast of energy pr ice s Energy p rices: EIA 's AEO201 3 projections ( See c hapter 8.)

Energy site

- to

- power plant

conversion A time

- series conversion factor that includes losses due to electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. Conversion

, which changes yearly

, is generated by DOE/EIA’s NEMS*

program

. Discount rate 3 % and 7 % real

Present year Future expenses are discounted to 201 3

.10-16 Input Data Source

* Section 10.3.2.5 provide s more detail on NEMS.



### 10.5.2 Results of National Energy Savings Calculations

Table 10.5

. 2 shows the NES results for the CSLs analyzed for dehumidifiers. NES results, which are cumulative to 2048, are shown as primary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as obtained in the LCC and PBP analysis (chapter 8 of the preliminary TSD).

Table 10.5

. 2 Cumulative National Energy Savings (Unit: Quads )

C SL ≤20.00 Pints/Day 20.01

-

30.00 Pints/Day 30.01

-

35.00 Pints/Day 35.01

-

45.00 Pints/Day > 45.00

Pints/Day ≤ 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) > 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

home) All

1 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.23

2 0.22 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.34

3 0.26 0.06 0.14 0.14 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.63

4 0.32 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.89



### Table 10.5

. 3 Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings (Unit: Quads)

CSL ≤20.00 Pints/Day 20.01

-

30.00 Pints/Day 30.01

-

35.00 Pints/Day 35.01

-

45.00 Pints/Day >45.00

Pints/Day ≤8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) >8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

home) All

1 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.23

2 0.22 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.35

3 0.26 0.06 0.14 0.14 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.64

4 0.32 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.91



### 10.5.3 Annual Costs and Savings

To illustrate the basic inputs to the NPV calculations, Figure 10 -2 presents the nondiscounted annual installed cost increases and annual operating cost savings nationwide for CSL10-17



### 3 for dehumidifiers. The figure also shows the net savings, which represent the difference between the savings and costs for each year. The annual product cost is the increase in the total installed cost for products purchased each year during the forecast period. The annual operating cost savings is the savings in operating costs for products operating in each year. The NPV is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted savings and the cumulative annual discounted costs. DOE could create figures like the one presented below for each CSL.

Figure 10 -2 Non-Discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases and Annual

Operating Cost Savings for Dehumidifiers, CSL 3

10.5.4 Results of Net Present Value Calculations

Th is section provide s results from the calculation of net present value (NPV) for the potential efficiency standards for dehumidifiers. Results, which are cumulative, are shown as the discounted value of savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values as produced by the life -cycle cost and payback period analysis.

The present value of increased total installed costs is the increase in total annual installed cost ( i.e. , the difference between the standards case and base case), discounted to the present and summed over the period in which DOE evaluated the impacts of standards (2019 to 204 8 ).10-18



### Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in a standards case as compared to the base case. Total savings in operating costs are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage ( i.e. , the year of manufacture) that surviv e in a particular year. For units purchased through 2048 , operating costs include energy consumed until the last unit is retired from service.

Table 10.2.8 and Table 10.2.9 presents NPV results for the candidate standard levels

considered for dehumidifiers.

Table 10.2.8 Cumulative NPV Results Based on 3 -Percent Discount Rate (Billion, 2012$)

C SL ≤20.00 Pints/Day 20.01

- 30.00

Pints/Day 30.01

-

35.00 Pints/Day 35.01

-

45.00 Pints/Day > 45.00

Pints/Day ≤ 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) > 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume ( Whole

Home) All

1 1.42 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.12 0.01 0.01 1.64

2 1.59 0.22 0.32 0.12 0.14 0.01 0.02 2.43

3 1.84 0.40 0.96 0.94 0.14 0.01 0.02 4.31

4 2.20 0.98 1.29 1.27 0.23 0.01 0.03 6.01



### Table 10.2.9 Cumulative NPV Results Based on 7 -Percent Discount Rate (Billion, 2012$)

C SL ≤20.00 Pints/Day 20.01

- 30.00

Pints/Day 30.01

-

35.00 Pints/Day 35.01

-

45.00 Pints/Day > 45.00

Pints/Day ≤ 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) > 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) All

1 0.61 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.70

2 0.68 0.09 0.14 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.01 1.04

3 0.78 0.17 0.40 0.38 0.06 0.00 0.01 1.80

4 0.92 0.41 0.54 0.54 0.09 0.00 0.01 2.5110-19



### REFERENCES

1 United States. Office of the Federal Register. Federal Register, Volume 76, Number 160, August 18, 2011, Pages 51281-51868. Washington D.C. UNT Digital Library.

2 U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with Projections

to 2040

. 2013. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383 (2013). April. (Last accessed November 21, 2013.) < http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2013).pdf >