Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released April 10, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 

Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down 1 Percent from March

The United States all orange forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 8.60 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous 

forecast and down 4 percent from the revised 2011-2012 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 138 million 

boxes (6.21 million tons), is down 1 percent from the March forecast and down 6 percent from last season’s revised final 

utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 67.0 million boxes (3.02 million tons), 

unchanged from the March forecast but down 10 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 

71.0 million boxes (3.20 million tons), is down 1 percent from the March forecast and down 2 percent from last season’s 

revised final utilization. Drought conditions persisted in Florida during March.

The California all orange forecast is 58.0 million boxes (2.32 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 

down 1 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 45.5 million boxes 

(1.82 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous forecast but unchanged from last season. The California Valencia 

orange forecast is 12.5 million boxes (500,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from last 

season’s revised final utilization. Harvest of Navel oranges continued during March, while Valencia orange harvest began. 

The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.56 million boxes (67,000 tons), is up 3 percent from the previous forecast and up 

10 percent from last season’s final utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 1.61 gallons per box at 

42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the March forecast but down 1 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.63 gallons 

per box. The early-midseason portion is final at 1.51 gallons per box, down 1 percent from last season’s final yield of 

1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.71 gallons per box, 2 percent lower than last year’s final yield 

of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of 

the past several seasons.
2 Crop Production (April 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

This report was approved on April 10, 2013.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Kathleen A. Merrigan

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Hubert Hamer
Crop Production (April 2013) 3

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2011-2012 and Forecasted 

April 1, 2013 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2012 and 2013..................... 6

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 2012 and 2013 ......................... 8

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2012 and 2013 .................................................................. 10

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2012 and 2013....................................................................... 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation Map ................................................................................................................................... 12

Departure from Normal Temperature Map........................................................................................................................... 12

March Weather Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 13

March Agricultural Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 13

Crop Comments.................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15

Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16
4 Crop Production (April 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

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Crop Production (April 2013) 5

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2011-2012 and

Forecasted April 1, 2013

[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]

Crop and State

Utilized production boxes 1 Utilized production ton equivalent

2011-2012 2012-2013 2011-2012 2012-2013

(1,000 boxes) (1,000 boxes) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Oranges

Early, mid, and Navel 2

 California ..........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Valencia

 California ..........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

All

 California ..........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Grapefruit

White

 Florida ..............................................

Colored

 Florida ..............................................

All

 California ..........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Tangerines and mandarins

Arizona 3...............................................

California 3............................................

Florida ..................................................

United States ........................................

Lemons 

Arizona .................................................

California ..............................................

United States ........................................

Tangelos

Florida ..................................................

45,500

74,200

1,108

120,808

13,000

72,500

311

85,811

58,500

146,700

1,419

206,619

5,350

13,500

4,000

18,850

4,800

27,650

200

10,900

4,290

15,390

750

20,500

21,250

1,150

45,500

67,000

1,260

113,760

12,500

71,000

295

83,795

58,000

138,000

1,555

197,555

4,500

12,500

4,100

17,000

5,500

26,600

200

13,500

3,500

17,200

1,800

20,000

21,800

1,000

1,820

3,339

47

5,206

520

3,263

13

3,796

2,340

6,602

60

9,002

228

574

160

802

192

1,154

8

436

204

648

30

820

850

52

1,820

3,015

54

4,889

500

3,195

13

3,708

2,320

6,210

67

8,597

191

531

164

722

220

1,106

8

540

166

714

72

800

872

45

1 Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in 

Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90.

2 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines 

in Texas and Temples in Florida.

3

Includes tangelos and tangors.
6 Crop Production (April 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2012 2013 2012 2013

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all ................................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all ............................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all ...........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all ........................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 2....................................................................

3,637

97,155

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

2,760

335

2,699

1,300

6,244

(NA)

55,736

41,324

2,123

12,289

1,765.0

(X)

344

51.1

1,638.0

2.2

169.8

77,198

1,919.0

12,315.4

12,077.0

238.4

1,230.1

(NA)

(NA)

19.0

1,742.5

649.0

463.0

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,148.3

96.8

49.8

1,001.7

(NA)

130.5

(NA)

3,634

97,282

(NA)

2,901

2,611

7,620

56,440

41,988

1,751

12,701

1,653.7

(X)

272

1,191.0

77,126

1,684.0

10,026.0

9,820.0

206.0

1,201.1

(NA)

19.0

1,500.0

850.0

335.0

74.9

122.3

3,244

87,375

7,379

56,260

17,292

38,968

1,045

205

2,678

248

4,955

363

48,991

34,834

2,102

12,055

1,729.0

(X)

336

49.7

1,608.0

2.1

160.1

76,104

1,841.0

9,426.8

9,190.0

236.8

1,204.2

896.0

336.2

13.7

1,690.4

621.0

450.0

(NA)

6.1

31.9

76.0

1,132.7

94.6

48.5

989.6

20.0

126.6

0.4

56,419

349.6

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (April 2013) 7

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013 (continued)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per acre Production

2012 2013 2012 2013

(1,000) (1,000)

Grains and hay

Barley ................................................................................... bushels

Corn for grain ........................................................................ bushels

Corn for silage ............................................................................tons

Hay, all .......................................................................................tons

 Alfalfa .....................................................................................tons

 All other ..................................................................................tons

Oats ...................................................................................... bushels

Proso millet ........................................................................... bushels

Rice 3........................................................................................... cwt

Rye ....................................................................................... bushels

Sorghum for grain ................................................................. bushels

Sorghum for silage ......................................................................tons

Wheat, all ............................................................................. bushels

 Winter ............................................................................... bushels

 Durum ............................................................................... bushels

 Other spring ...................................................................... bushels

Oilseeds

Canola ...................................................................................pounds

Cottonseed .................................................................................tons

Flaxseed ............................................................................... bushels

Mustard seed .........................................................................pounds

Peanuts .................................................................................pounds

Rapeseed ..............................................................................pounds

Safflower ...............................................................................pounds

Soybeans for beans .............................................................. bushels

Sunflower ..............................................................................pounds

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 3............................................................................... bales

 Upland 3................................................................................ bales

 American Pima 3................................................................... bales

Sugarbeets .................................................................................tons

Sugarcane ..................................................................................tons

Tobacco .................................................................................pounds

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas 3.................................................................. cwt

Dry edible beans 3....................................................................... cwt

Dry edible peas 3......................................................................... cwt

Lentils 3........................................................................................ cwt

Wrinkled seed peas ..................................................................... cwt

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ......................................................................pounds

Hops ......................................................................................pounds

Peppermint oil ........................................................................pounds

Potatoes, all ................................................................................. cwt

 Spring ...................................................................................... cwt

 Summer ................................................................................... cwt

 Fall .......................................................................................... cwt

Spearmint oil .........................................................................pounds

Sweet potatoes ............................................................................ cwt

Taro (Hawaii) .........................................................................pounds

67.9

123.4

15.4

2.13

3.01

1.74

61.3

15.1

7,449

28.0

49.8

11.4

46.3

47.2

39.0

45.0

1,416

(X)

17.1

602

4,192

2,205

1,121

39.6

1,513

866

849

1,540

29.3

35.9

2,268

1,219

1,889

1,751

1,178

(NA)

1,180

1,918

87

412

283

368

427

120

209

(NA)

220,284

10,780,296

113,450

119,878

52,049

67,829

64,024

3,090

199,479

6,944

246,932

4,135

2,269,117

1,645,202

81,956

541,959

2,447,410

5,759.0

5,762

29,930

6,741,400

4,630

179,424

3,014,998

2,785,695

17,009.9

16,250.0

759.9

35,236

32,179

762,441

167

31,925

10,872

5,302

406

7,200

61,249.2

6,605

467,126

26,736

17,855

422,535

2,390

26,482

3,400

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.

3 Yield in pounds.
8 Crop Production (April 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2012 2013 2012 2013

(hectares) (hectares) (hectares) (hectares)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2......................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 3....................................................................

1,471,860

39,317,660

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,116,940

135,570

1,092,260

526,100

2,526,880

(NA)

22,555,800

16,723,410

859,160

4,973,240

714,280

(X)

139,210

20,680

662,880

890

68,720

31,241,260

776,600

4,983,920

4,887,440

96,480

497,810

(NA)

(NA)

7,690

705,170

262,640

187,370

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

464,710

39,170

20,150

405,380

(NA)

52,810

(NA)

1,470,640

39,369,050

(NA)

1,174,010

1,056,650

3,083,740

22,840,700

16,992,120

708,610

5,139,970

669,240

(X)

110,080

481,990

31,212,120

681,500

4,057,420

3,974,060

83,370

486,070

(NA)

7,690

607,040

343,990

135,570

30,310

49,490

1,312,810

35,359,790

2,986,210

22,767,860

6,997,900

15,769,960

422,900

82,960

1,083,760

100,360

2,005,240

146,900

19,826,170

14,096,970

850,660

4,878,540

699,710

(X)

135,980

20,110

650,740

850

64,790

30,798,530

745,030

3,814,930

3,719,100

95,830

487,330

362,600

136,070

5,540

684,090

251,310

182,110

(NA)

2,470

12,920

30,760

458,390

38,280

19,630

400,480

8,090

51,230

160

22,832,210

141,490

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (April 2013) 9

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013 (continued)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per hectare Production

2012 2013 2012 2013

(metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain ......................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa .............................................................................

 All other ..........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain ...............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower ............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ...........................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ...............................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2.....................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall .................................................................................

Spearmint oil ......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................

3.65

7.74

34.47

4.78

6.75

3.90

2.20

0.84

8.35

1.76

3.13

25.54

3.11

3.18

2.62

3.02

1.59

(X)

1.08

0.67

4.70

2.47

1.26

2.66

1.70

0.97

0.95

1.73

65.59

80.51

2.54

1.37

2.12

1.96

1.32

(NA)

1.32

2.15

0.10

46.22

31.68

41.26

47.86

0.13

23.45

(NA)

4,796,120

273,832,130

102,920,110

108,751,490

47,218,060

61,533,430

929,310

70,080

9,048,220

176,390

6,272,360

3,751,210

61,755,240

44,775,060

2,230,480

14,749,710

1,110,130

5,224,480

146,360

13,580

3,057,850

2,100

81,390

82,054,800

1,263,570

3,703,470

3,538,020

165,450

31,965,560

29,192,300

345,840

7,570

1,448,090

493,150

240,490

18,420

3,270

27,780

3,000

21,188,480

1,212,720

809,890

19,165,870

1,080

1,201,200

1,540

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2

Total may not add due to rounding.

3 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
10 Crop Production (April 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2012 and 2013

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2012 2013

(1,000) (1,000)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit ..............................................................tons

Lemons .................................................................tons

Oranges ................................................................tons

Tangelos (Florida) .................................................tons

Tangerines and mandarins ....................................tons

Noncitrus

Apples ................................................... 1,000 pounds

Apricots .................................................................tons

Bananas (Hawaii) .............................................pounds

Grapes ..................................................................tons

Olives (California) .................................................tons

Papayas (Hawaii) .............................................pounds

Peaches ................................................................tons

Pears ....................................................................tons

Prunes, dried (California) ......................................tons

Prunes and plums (excludes California) ................tons

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ...........................pounds

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..................................tons

Pecans, in-shell ................................................pounds

Walnuts, in-shell (California) .................................tons

Maple syrup ..................................................... gallons

1,154

850

9,002

52

648

9,061.1

60.8

7,343.4

160.0

978.3

858.2

125.0

13.2

2,000,000

34.7

302,800

470

1,908

1,106

872

8,597

45

714

1 Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.
Crop Production (April 2013) 11

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2012 and 2013

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2012 2013

(metric tons) (metric tons)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit .............................................................................................................

Lemons ................................................................................................................

Oranges ................................................................................................................

Tangelos (Florida) ................................................................................................

Tangerines and mandarins ...................................................................................

Noncitrus

Apples ..................................................................................................................

Apricots ................................................................................................................

Bananas (Hawaii) .................................................................................................

Grapes .................................................................................................................

Olives (California) .................................................................................................

Papayas (Hawaii) .................................................................................................

Peaches ...............................................................................................................

Pears ....................................................................................................................

Prunes, dried (California) ......................................................................................

Prunes and plums (excludes California) ................................................................

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ................................................................................

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .................................................................................

Pecans, in-shell ....................................................................................................

Walnuts, in-shell (California) .................................................................................

Maple syrup ..........................................................................................................

1,046,890

771,110

8,166,480

47,170

587,860

4,110,050

55,160

6,661,820

145,150

887,460

778,580

113,400

12,010

907,180

31,480

137,350

426,380

9,540

1,003,350

791,070

7,799,070

40,820

647,730

1 Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.
12 Crop Production (April 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production (April 2013) 13

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

March Weather Summary

The persistence of a large high-pressure system over the North Atlantic led to a southward displacement of the polar jet 

stream across the central and eastern United States. That resulted in a steady delivery of cold, Canadian air, leading to 

below-normal March temperatures in most areas from the Plains to the East Coast. Monthly temperatures averaged more 

than 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal in portions of North Dakota and neighboring areas. In contrast, mild weather 

covered much of the West, leading to premature melting of high-elevation snow packs; however, the Western warmth also 

promoted spring fieldwork and crop development.

The North Atlantic blocking high also slowed the normal progression of storm systems, leading to an active pattern in 

some parts of the country. In particular, significant precipitation fell in several regions, including portions of the northern 

Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley. On several occasions, precipitation fell in the form of late-season snow; however, 

precipitation largely bypassed several areas, such as the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast region, and parts of the Northeast.

Most of the West also experienced drier-than-normal weather, fueling concerns about spring and summer water 

supplies - especially from California to the central and southern Rockies.

Agricultural highlights included the lack of spring fieldwork in the Midwest - in stark contrast to March 2012 - and 

continuing stress on rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat from South Dakota to Texas. In parts of the Midwest, 

temperatures during March 2013 averaged more than 20 degrees Fahrenheit below those observed a year ago. On the 

central Plains, drought was so deeply entrenched that even a moderately wet March failed to substantially improve subsoil 

moisture levels or crop conditions. On the southern Plains, a return to dry conditions coupled with late-month freezes, 

maintained or increased stress on winter wheat. Late-March freezes also struck much of the remainder of the South, 

threatening emerging summer crops, heading winter wheat, and fruit crops; however, Southern crop development was far 

behind last year’s pace due to persistently cool conditions, helping to reduce the overall threat of freeze injury.

March Agricultural Summary

Below average March temperatures stretching from the Great Plains eastward led to fields remaining frozen for longer 

than normal resulting in delays of spring fieldwork for portions of the Great Lakes region and Midwest. Most notably, 

temperatures in portions of the northern Great Plains fell to more than 9 degrees below normal. Elsewhere, warm 

conditions in the Southwest provided producers ample time for fruit, vegetable, and hay harvest, as well as spring 

planting. Precipitation was below average throughout parts of the United States during the month, with much of the 

southern and western portions of the country receiving moisture totaling less than 50 percent of normal.

Field preparation for row crops was ongoing throughout much of the southern half of the Nation as March began, with 

producers cultivating fields, applying fertilizers and herbicides, and irrigating fields ahead of planting. In California, rice 

paddies were drained and leveled, while seeding was underway in Louisiana and Texas by March 17. Sugarcane 

producers in Florida and Texas were harvesting the remainder of their 2012 crop toward month’s end. By March 31, small 

acreages of most row crops had been planted, but, when compared with last year’s early start, the overall planting pace 

was behind normal in most areas.

Despite an increase in precipitation compared with recent months, soil moisture levels and winter wheat conditions in the 

central and southern Great Plains failed to show substantial improvement during March. Conversely, irrigated small grain 

crops across the Southwest were developing well. High winds blew throughout Texas during the month, quickly drying 

out any available topsoil moisture. On March 31, thirty-four percent of the Nation’s winter wheat crop was reported in 

good to excellent condition, compared with 33 percent on November 26, 2012 and 58 percent from the same time last 

year. Throughout much of the Hard Red growing region, soil moisture shortages negatively impacted crop condition 

during winter dormancy.

Crop Comments

Grapefruit: The 2012-2013 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.11 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous 

forecast but down 4 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. The row count survey conducted in Florida 

indicated that 72 percent of the white grapefruit and 85 percent of the colored grapefruit rows were harvested.
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USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 714,000 tons, up 9 percent 

from the previous forecast and up 10 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, the row count survey showed 

that 86 percent of the Honey tangerine rows had been harvested. In California, favorable growing conditions increased the 

expectation for this year’s mandarin crop.

Lemons: The forecast for the 2012-2013 United States lemon crop is 872,000 tons, down 2 percent from the previous 

forecast but up 3 percent from last season’s final utilization. In California, lemon harvest was complete in the desert 

region but continued in the San Joaquin Valley and along the southern coastal region.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), unchanged from the March forecast but down 

13 percent from last season’s final utilization. Florida’s row count survey showed 99 percent of the rows were harvested.

Florida citrus: In the citrus growing region, high temperatures for the month ranged from the upper 70s to upper 80s. 

Rainfall was generally light, worsening the drought conditions in all of the citrus producing regions. Harvest was 

complete for early and mid oranges and tangelos, and continued for Valencias, grapefruit, and tangerines. Harvesting, 

fertilizer application, and general grove maintenance were the primary grove activities.

California citrus: Harvest continued for navel oranges, lemons, and mandarins. Harvest started for Valencia oranges. 

Blooms began to emerge on citrus trees. Mandarin trees were netted to prevent cross pollination and ensure seedless fruit.

California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Irrigation continued in vineyards and stone fruit orchards. Stone fruit was treated 

for fire blight. Herbicide applications were made to control weeds. Apricots, nectarines, pluots, plums, and peaches 

bloomed and leafed out. Fruit was forming on most stone fruit trees. Cherry bloom continued. Grapes leafed out. Apples 

and pears were leafing out and starting to bloom. Olives continued to be pruned. Harvest of Hass avocados continued. 

Blueberries were blooming with hot house blueberries being picked. Almond trees bloomed one to two weeks behind 

normal. Almond trees were leafing out and nutlets were showing on early varieties. Pruning was ongoing in walnut and 

pistachio orchards. Walnuts were pushing catkins and were treated for blight. Pistachios were showing bud break.
Crop Production (April 2013) 15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts 

for about 72 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based 

on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special 

surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent 

months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which, when combined with the previous 

components, are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer 

surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys 

in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were 

also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural 

Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month 

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in 

September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including 

information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization 

and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," 

a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and 

the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 

latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." 

Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final 

end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent 

years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 1.6 percent. However, if you exclude the 

three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the “Root Mean Square Error” is 

1.7 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the 

final estimate by more than 1.6 percent, or 1.7 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent 

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.7 percent, or 2.9 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 135,000 tons 

(145,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 0 to 368,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The April 1 forecast 

for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times, above 12 times, and equal to once (below 5 times, above 11 times, 

and equal to once excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecast this year is likely 

to understate or overstate final production.
16 Crop Production (April 2013)

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Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact 

for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch .......................................................................................................(202) 720-2127

Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section .................................................................................... (202) 720-2127

 Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye, Wheat .............................................................................................. (202) 720-8068

 Angie Considine – Peanuts, Rice ..................................................................................................... (202) 720-7688

 Steve Maliszewski – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................................................ (202) 720-5944

 Anthony Prillaman – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet ......................................................................... (202) 720-2127

 Julie Schmidt – Crop Weather, Barley, Hay .................................................................................... (202) 720-7621

 Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..................................................................(202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............................................(202) 720-2127

 Debbie Flippin – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries......................................(202) 720-2157

 Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ...............................................(202) 720-4288

 Chris Hawthorn – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits.........................................(202) 720-5412

 Dave Losh – Hops............................................................................................................................(360) 709-2400 

 Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,

 Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ..................................................(202) 720-3250

 Daphne Schauber – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ...............................................(202) 720-4285

 Erika White – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts .......................................................(202) 720-4215
Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:

 All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

 Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free 

subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the “Follow NASS” box under “Receive reports by Email,” 

click on “National” or “State” to select the reports you would like to receive. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 

7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 

 

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