Cr Pr 2-2 (2-09) 

Washington, D.C.

Crop 

Production

Released February 10, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. 

All Orange Production Down 2 Percent from January 

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2008-09 season is 8.94 million tons, down 2 percent from the January 1 

forecast and 12 percent lower than the 2007-08 final utilization of 10.2 million tons. Florida’s all orange forecast, 

at 158 million boxes (7.11 million tons), decreased 2 percent from the previous forecast and is down 7 percent 

from last season’s final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 83.0 million 

boxes (3.74 million tons), down 1 percent from the January forecast and last season. Florida’s Valencia forecast, 

at 75.0 million boxes (3.38 million tons), is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and is 13 percent less than 

the 2007-08 crop. Temperatures dropped below 28 degrees for four or more hours in Florida’s citrus producing 

areas on the nights of January 21 and 22. A freeze damage survey was conducted January 27-28, and showed 

little or no damage at that time. Additional assessments will be made in mid-February and late-February. 

Objective survey measurements taken during January showed a decrease in the fruit growth rate and an increase 

in the drop rate for the Valencia crop. 

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2008-09 season is 1.61 gallons per box 

at 42 degrees Brix, down 1 percent from the January forecast and 4 percent lower than last season’s final yield of 

1.67 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.58 gallons per box, up 2 percent from last 

season’s final yield of 1.55 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is expected to total 1.65 gallons per box, 

8 percent lower than last year’s final yield of 1.79 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing 

relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 2 NASS, USDA 

This report was approved on February 10, 2009. 

Acting Secretary of 

Agriculture 

Joseph W. Glauber 

Agricultural Statistics Board 

Chairperson 

Carol C. House 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 3 NASS, USDA 

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas..................................................................................................................................................................4 

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit ..............................................................................................................................................................5 

Lemons..................................................................................................................................................................5 

Oranges .................................................................................................................................................................5 

Tangelos ................................................................................................................................................................5 

Tangerines and Mandarins ....................................................................................................................................5 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

Sugarcane ..............................................................................................................................................................4 

Crop Comments.................................................................................................................................................13 

Crop Summary ....................................................................................................................................................6 

Information Contacts........................................................................................................................................17 

Reliability of Production Data in this Report.................................................................................................16 

Weather Maps ...................................................................................................................................................12 

Weather Summary ............................................................................................................................................13 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 4 NASS, USDA 

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production 

by Use, State, and United States, 2007-2008 

Area Harvested Yield 1

 Production 1 Use 

and 

State 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008 

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 

For Sugar 

 FL 

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US 

For Seed 

 FL 

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US 

For Sugar 

 and Seed 

 FL 

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US 

375.0 

20.4 

390.0 

42.5 

827.9 

18.0 

2.5 

30.0 

1.2 

51.7 

393.0 

22.9 

420.0 

43.7 

879.6 

387.0 

20.0 

380.0 

40.0 

827.0 

16.0 

2.0 

25.0 

1.5 

44.5 

403.0 

22.0 

405.0 

41.5 

871.5 

36.0 

73.2 

30.4 

33.5 

34.2 

37.6 

28.3 

30.4 

30.4 

32.8 

36.1 

68.3 

30.4 

33.4 

34.1 

37.2 

80.0 

29.0 

39.8 

34.6 

42.0 

34.0 

29.0 

39.8 

34.3 

37.4 

75.8 

29.0 

39.8 

34.6 

13,500 

1,493 

11,856 

1,424 

28,273 

677 

71 

912 

36 

1,696 

14,177 

1,564 

12,768 

1,460 

29,969 

14,396 

1,600 

11,020 

1,592 

28,608 

672 

68 

725 

60 

1,525 

15,068 

1,668 

11,745 

1,652 

30,133 

1

 Net tons. 

2

 Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." 

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2007-2008 

Area Fresh Production 1

Month Total in Crop Harvested 

2007 2008 2007 2008 

2007 2008 

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 

Nov 

Dec 

2,100 

2,055 

2,425 

2,410 

1,365 

1,255 

1,460 

1,465 

3,075 

2,810 

2,645 

2,785 

1

 Utilized fresh production. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 5 NASS, USDA 

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 

2006-07, 2007-08 and Forecasted February 1, 2009 1

Utilized Production 

Boxes 

Utilized Production 

Crop and State Ton Equivalent 

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 

Oranges 

 Early, Mid & 

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

 Valencia 

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

 All 

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

Grapefruit 

 White 

 FL 

 Colored 

 FL 

 All 

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

Tangerines and Mandarins 

 AZ 4 5

 CA 4 5

 FL 

 US 

Lemons 4

 AZ 

 CA 

 US 

Tangelos 

 FL 

200 

34,500 

65,600 

1,600 

101,900 

100 

11,500 

63,400 

380 

75,380 

300 

46,000 

129,000 

1,980 

177,280 

9,300 

17,900 

100 

5,500 

27,200 

7,100 

39,900 

300 

3,500 

4,600 

8,400 

2,500 

18,500 

21,000 

1,250 

230 

48,500 

83,500 

1,500 

133,730 

150 

16,000 

86,700 

234 

103,084 

380 

64,500 

170,200 

1,734 

236,814 

9,000 

17,600 

100 

5,700 

26,600 

6,100 

38,500 

400 

5,700 

5,500 

11,600 

1,500 

17,000 

18,500 

1,500 

150 

34,500 

83,000 

1,450 

119,100 

100 

12,000 

75,000 

200 

87,300 

250 

46,500 

158,000 

1,650 

206,400 

7,000 

16,000 

150 

4,500 

23,000 

5,700 

33,350 

250 

7,000 

4,600 

11,850 

2,500 

19,000 

21,500 

1,300 

7 

1,294 

2,952 

68 

4,321 

4 

431 

2,853 

16 

3,304 

11 

1,725 

5,805 

84 

7,625 

395 

761 

3 

184 

1,156 

284 

1,627 

11 

131 

219 

361 

95 

703 

798 

56 

9 

1,819 

3,757 

64 

5,649 

6 

600 

3,902 

10 

4,518 

15 

2,419 

7,659 

74 

10,167 

383 

748 

3 

191 

1,131 

244 

1,569 

15 

214 

261 

490 

57 

646 

703 

68 

6 

1,294 

3,735 

62 

5,097 

4 

450 

3,375 

9 

3,838 

10 

1,744 

7,110 

71 

8,935 

298 

680 

5 

151 

978 

228 

1,362 

9 

263 

219 

491 

95 

722 

817 

59 

1

 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2

 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; tangerines and 

mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3

 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of 

tangerines in TX. 4

 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 

5

 Includes tangelos and tangors. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 6 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 

(Domestic Units) 1

Area Planted Area Harvested Crop 

2008 2009 2008 2009 

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 

 Upland 

 Amer-Pima 

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 

 Dry Edible Beans 

 Dry Edible Peas 

 Lentils 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 4

4,234.0 

85,982.0 

3,217.0 

520.0 

2,995.0 

1,260.0 

8,284.0 

63,147.0 

46,281.0 

2,731.0 

14,135.0 

1,011.0 

354.0 

79.5 

1,534.0 

0.2 

202.0 

75,718.0 

2,516.5 

9,470.0 

9,296.0 

174.0 

1,090.8 

17.5 

1,495.0 

882.5 

271.0 

1,057.8 

11.0 

70.3 

46.0 

930.5 

102.9 

42,098.0 

9.0 

3,767.0 

78,640.0 

5,965.0 

60,062.0 

20,980.0 

39,082.0 

1,395.0 

460.0 

2,976.0 

269.0 

7,271.0 

408.0 

55,685.0 

39,614.0 

2,584.0 

13,487.0 

989.0 

340.0 

71.5 

1,507.0 

0.2 

195.0 

74,641.0 

2,396.0 

7,728.4 

7,559.0 

169.4 

1,004.6 

871.5 

354.2 

8.0 

1,445.2 

847.3 

263.0 

6.3 

0.1 

40.9 

60.0 

1,044.7 

11.0 

68.8 

43.8 

921.1 

20.4 

97.0 

0.4 

9.0 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop 

year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 

3

 Acreage is not estimated. 

4

 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 7 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 

(Domestic Units) 1

Yield Production Crop Units 

2008 2009 2008 2009 

 1,000 1,000 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 2

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu 

" 

Tons 

" 

" 

" 

Bu 

" 

Cwt 

Bu 

" 

Tons 

Bu 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

Tons 

Bu 

Lbs 

" 

" 

" 

Bu 

Lbs 

Bales 

" 

" 

Tons 

" 

Lbs 

Cwt 

" 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

" 

" 

" 

Cwt 

" 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

Cwt 

Lbs 

63.6 

153.9 

18.7 

2.43 

3.32 

1.95 

63.5 

32.3 

6,846 

29.7 

65.0 

13.8 

44.9 

47.2 

32.8 

40.5 

1,461 

16.8 

577 

3,416 

1,500 

1,592 

39.6 

1,429 

810 

799 

1,265 

26.7 

34.6 

2,260 

1,300 

1,768 

1,448 

917 

1,160 

30,000 

1,971 

92 

395 

230 

293 

309 

409 

118 

189 

210 

239,498 

12,101,238 

111,619 

145,672 

69,620 

76,052 

88,635 

14,880 

203,733 

7,979 

472,342 

5,646 

2,499,524 

1,867,903 

84,877 

546,744 

1,445,064 

4,429.0 

5,716 

41,255 

5,147,900 

300 

310,433 

2,959,174 

3,422,840 

13,035.6 

12,589.0 

446.6 

26,820 

30,133 

800,527 

104 

25,558 

12,270 

2,411 

580 

7,300 

1,800 

80,630.1 

5,499 

412,580 

2,530 

20,132 

13,532 

376,386 

2,399 

18,345 

4,400 

1,890 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop 

year. 2

 Yield in pounds. 

3

 Yield is not estimated. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 8 NASS, USDA 

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 

(Domestic Units) 1

Production Crop Units 

2007 2008 2009 

 1,000 1,000 1,000 

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit 

 Lemons 

 Oranges 

 Tangelos (FL) 

 Tangerines and Mandarins 

Noncitrus 

 Apples 

 Apricots 

 Bananas (HI) 

 Grapes 

 Olives (CA) 

 Papayas (HI) 

 Peaches 

 Pears 

 Prunes, Dried (CA) 

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) 

Nuts & Misc. 

 Almonds (CA) (shelled) 

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) 

 Pecans (in-shell) 

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) 

 Maple Syrup 

Tons 

" 

" 

" 

" 

1,000 Lbs 

Tons 

Lbs 

Tons 

" 

Lbs 

Tons 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

Tons 

Lbs 

Tons 

Gals 

1,627 

798 

7,625 

56 

361 

9,089.4 

88.5 

25,600.0 

7,037.3 

132.5 

33,400.0 

1,127.2 

873.0 

83.0 

12.1 

1,390,000 

37.0 

387,305 

328.0 

1,517 

1,569 

703 

10,167 

68 

490 

10,035.2 

81.5 

22,800.0 

7,434.9 

66.8 

33,100.0 

1,121.9 

818.5 

126.0 

15.6 

1,550,000 

32.0 

191,080 

375.0 

1,635 

1,362 

817 

8,935 

59 

491 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 

2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2

 Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 9 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 

(Metric Units) 1

Area Planted Area Harvested Crop 

2008 2009 2008 2009 

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland 

 Amer-Pima 

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 

 Dry Edible Beans 

 Dry Edible Peas 

 Lentils 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 5

1,713,460 

34,796,060 

1,301,890 

210,440 

1,212,050 

509,910 

3,352,450 

25,554,960 

18,729,460 

1,105,210 

5,720,290 

409,140 

143,260 

32,170 

620,790 

80 

81,750 

30,642,320 

1,018,400 

3,832,410 

3,762,000 

70,420 

441,440 

7,080 

605,010 

357,140 

109,670 

428,080 

4,450 

28,450 

18,620 

376,560 

41,640 

17,036,640 

3,640 

1,524,470 

31,824,820 

2,413,980 

24,306,490 

8,490,400 

15,816,090 

564,540 

186,160 

1,204,360 

108,860 

2,942,500 

165,110 

22,535,160 

16,031,390 

1,045,720 

5,458,050 

400,240 

137,590 

28,940 

609,870 

80 

78,910 

30,206,470 

969,640 

3,127,610 

3,059,050 

68,550 

406,550 

352,690 

143,340 

3,240 

584,860 

342,890 

106,430 

2,550 

20 

16,550 

24,280 

422,780 

4,450 

27,840 

17,730 

372,760 

8,260 

39,250 

160 

3,640 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop 

year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 

3

 Total may not add due to rounding. 

4

 Acreage is not estimated. 

5

 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 10 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 

(Metric Units) 1

Yield Production Crop 

2008 2009 2008 2009 

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 

 Amer-Pima 

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 

 Dry Edible Beans 

 Dry Edible Peas 

 Lentils 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 3

3.42 

9.66 

41.95 

5.44 

7.44 

4.36 

2.28 

1.81 

7.67 

1.86 

4.08 

31.02 

3.02 

3.17 

2.21 

2.73 

1.64 

1.06 

0.65 

3.83 

1.68 

1.78 

2.67 

1.60 

0.91 

0.90 

1.42 

59.85 

77.51 

2.53 

1.46 

1.98 

1.62 

1.03 

1.30 

33.63 

2.21 

0.10 

44.26 

25.78 

32.80 

34.63 

45.80 

0.13 

21.20 

23.54 

5,214,450 

307,385,600 

101,259,050 

132,151,420 

63,158,200 

68,993,210 

1,286,530 

337,470 

9,241,170 

202,680 

11,998,040 

5,121,970 

68,025,900 

50,835,990 

2,309,970 

14,879,930 

655,470 

4,017,920 

145,190 

18,710 

2,335,050 

140 

140,810 

80,535,520 

1,552,570 

2,838,170 

2,740,930 

97,240 

24,330,690 

27,336,200 

363,110 

4,720 

1,159,290 

556,560 

109,360 

26,310 

3,310 

820 

36,570 

2,490 

18,714,320 

114,760 

913,170 

613,800 

17,072,580 

1,090 

832,120 

2,000 

85,730 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop 

year. 2

 Production may not add due to rounding. 

3

 Yield is not estimated. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 11 NASS, USDA 

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 

(Metric Units) 1

Production Crop 

2007 2008 2009 

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons 

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit 

 Lemons 

 Oranges 

 Tangelos (FL) 

 Tangerines and Mandarins 

Noncitrus 

 Apples 

 Apricots 

 Bananas (HI) 

 Grapes 

 Olives (CA) 

 Papayas (HI) 

 Peaches 

 Pears 

 Prunes, Dried (CA) 

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) 

Nuts & Misc. 

 Almonds (CA) (shelled) 

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) 

 Pecans (in-shell) 

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) 

 Maple Syrup 

1,475,990 

723,930 

6,917,280 

50,800 

327,490 

4,122,880 

80,250 

11,610 

6,384,090 

120,200 

15,150 

1,022,530 

791,930 

75,300 

10,980 

630,490 

33,570 

175,680 

297,560 

7,580 

1,423,370 

637,750 

9,223,350 

61,690 

444,520 

4,551,890 

73,940 

10,340 

6,744,840 

60,600 

15,010 

1,017,780 

742,490 

114,310 

14,150 

703,070 

29,030 

86,670 

340,190 

8,170 

1,235,590 

741,170 

8,105,700 

53,520 

445,430 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 

full 2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2

 Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 12 NASS, USDA 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 13 NASS, USDA 

January Weather Summary

Winter wheat conditions declined sharply across the southern Plains due to drought intensification and rapid 

temperature fluctuations. In Texas, nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor 

condition on February 1, up from 46 percent on January 3 and 16 percent on November 23. Similarly, 36 percent of 

Oklahoma’s wheat was rated very poor to poor, up from 20 percent in early January and 6 percent in late November. 

A late-month winter storm brought much-needed moisture to the southern Plains, but produced much more significant 

accumulations of ice and snow from the Mid-South into the Northeast. On January 27-28, Kentucky and neighboring 

states were particularly hard-hit by accretions of freezing rain, which reached an inch or more and caused major 

electrical disruptions. 

Farther south, cold air made a deep push into Florida from January 21-23. In most Florida locations, the outbreak’s 

lowest temperatures were observed on January 22, when nearly calm conditions were ideal for sprinklers and other 

freeze-protection measures. Although citrus and sugarcane appeared to escape the freezes with few adverse impacts, 

tender vegetables such as beans, tomatoes, and sweet corn reportedly experienced varying degrees of damage. Among 

winter crop areas, only southeastern Florida escaped the freeze. 

Meanwhile, bitterly cold weather gripped the Midwest and Northeast. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 

5 degrees F below normal from the upper Mississippi Valley into New England, including the Great Lakes States. 

While much of this region experienced a reprieve from the heavy snow of December, an extensive snow cover 

remained in place due to persistently cold conditions. In contrast, mild, breezy weather kept the northern and central 

High Plains free of snow for much of January. 

Elsewhere, unfavorably dry weather prevailed from the Rockies westward, except for pockets of heavy snow across the 

Intermountain West and early-month downpours and flooding in the Pacific Northwest. An area from California into 

the Great Basin, where drought developed during the winter of 2006-07, was of particular concern due to already low 

reservoir levels and the risk of completing a third consecutive year of drought. At the end of 2008, California’s 

151 intrastate reservoirs held just 68 percent of their normal volume of water for December 31. On January 31, the 

Sierra Nevada snow pack contained an average of 10 inches of liquid, just 59 percent of average for the date. 

January Agricultural Summary 

January began with heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Some areas, such as northwest 

North Dakota, received precipitation amounts reaching 400 percent of normal for the month. Portions of the Corn Belt 

saw patches of moderate precipitation. From the northern Delta, eastward through Kentucky and north to the Great 

Lakes, heavier precipitation fell. A major ice storm developed across parts of the mid-south and the Ohio Valley at the 

end of the month. Cooler than normal temperatures stretched from New England to eastern North Dakota to as far 

south as the Northern Delta. With the exception of the Pacific Northwest, areas west of the Mississippi River had near 

to above normal temperatures in January. Most of the Southeast saw slightly warmer than normal temperatures. 

However, in Florida, east of the panhandle, temperatures were unseasonably cool. 

Producers in many areas began preparing for spring planting by fertilizing, irrigating, and cultivating fields. Cotton 

harvest wrapped up in Arizona and Texas by mid-month. Citrus harvest was ongoing across the producing areas while 

in Florida, harvest surpassed its season’s mid-point by January 18. Florida’s citrus and winter vegetable producers 

irrigated fields due to lack of precipitation while three consecutive freezes in late January caused some damage to 

citrus, sugarcane, strawberries, and vegetables. 

Small grains progressed well in California while mid-month moisture aided crops in Georgia. Texas and Oklahoma 

wheat, however, was in need of precipitation as it began to show signs of stress by month’s end. 

Crop Comments

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2008 is forecast at 30.1 million tons, down 2 percent from 

January but up 1 percent from 2007. Area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed, at 871,500 acres, is up 

slightly from last month but down 1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 34.6 tons per acre, down 0.7 ton from 

last month but 0.5 ton above the 2007 crop. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 14 NASS, USDA 

Production in Florida is forecast at 15.1 million tons for the 2008 crop year, down 4 percent from January but 6 percent 

higher than 2007. Florida’s yield, at 37.4 tons per acre, is down 1.6 tons while harvested area, at 403,000 acres, is up 

2,000 acres from last month. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. 

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2008-09 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.36 million tons, unchanged from the January 1 

forecast but 13 percent lower than 2007-08 final utilization of 1.57 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is 

forecast at 23.0 million boxes (978 million tons), unchanged from the January forecast but 14 percent below last season. 

Weather for the month of January in the grapefruit growing areas of Florida was variable. 

The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 7.00 million boxes (298,000 tons), unchanged from January but down 

22 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), is 

unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 9 percent lower than last season. Final fruit size of both white and colored 

varieties was larger than average. The drop rate of white grapefruit slowed over the past two months, with final 

droppage below both the average and the previous projection. The drop rate of the colored variety, however, increased 

the past few weeks and finished slightly above average. Approximately 60 percent of the colored grapefruit was 

harvested for fresh consumption and the fruit quality was reported as excellent. Arizona, California, and Texas 

grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecast. 

Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 491,000 tons, down 3 percent from 

the January 1 forecast but up slightly from the 2007-08 season. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.60 million 

boxes (219,000 tons), down 6 percent from the January forecast and down 16 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. 

Harvest of the early Fallglo variety was complete for the season and the Sunburst harvest was nearing completion. 

Honey tangerine harvest, which accounts for more than 40 percent of Florida’s total tangerine production, got underway 

in January. Fruit size continued to measure below average and the rate of fruit drop was still above average. Arizona 

and California tangerine and mandarin production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecast. 

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), down 13 percent from the January 1 forecast 

and last season’s final production. The fruit size for the 2008-09 crop is slightly above average and the drop rate is 

below average. As of February 1, approximately 60 percent of the crop had been harvested. 

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.79 million pounds for December 2008, up 5 percent from 

November but down 1 percent from a year ago. Total crop area for December is estimated at 2,410 acres, down 

1 percent from November but up 17 percent from December 2007. Harvested area totaled 1,465 acres, virtually 

unchanged from the previous month but 17 percent higher than December 2007. Weather conditions during December 

were generally cool and wet, benefitting dry areas with added soil moisture and increased tree growth. Heavy rain fell 

in some locations, causing flooding and soil erosion and slowing crop progress and field maintenance activities. 

Spraying for disease control was limited, raising a concern with some growers. 

Florida Citrus: Weather conditions the first half of January were warm and dry, with very little rainfall. As a result, 

trees began to show wilt and drought conditions were extended further south. Freezing temperatures and some much 

needed rain arrived the third week in January, leaving heavy frost on the trees and ice in the fruit. The full impact on 

the citrus crop was still being assessed. Warmer temperatures returned the last week of the month, with highs in the 

mid-80’s in the southernmost citrus producing counties. Total rainfall for the month was minimal, but with growers 

irrigating regularly, the dry weather had no damaging affect on the citrus crop. 

Processing of the citrus crop peaked the third week of January as growers made efforts to transport fruit to the 

packinghouses and processing plants ahead of the freeze. Other than harvesting, grove activity included irrigating, 

preparing groves for harvest, fertilizing, and post-harvest hedging. Scouting for greening and pushing of affected trees 

continued. 

California Citrus: The colder temperatures early in the month were beneficial for citrus fruit to obtain its natural color 

and increase shelf life, but dry weather continued and the orange crop in the San Joaquin Valley began to show some 

drought damage. Fruit in orange, lemon, mandarin, and grapefruit groves continued developing as harvest progressed. 

Citrus varieties harvested during January included Clementines, Blood, Cara Cara and navel oranges, Murcott 

tangerines, Minneola tangelos, lemons, and Melo Gold, Pummelo, Oro Blanco, and Cocktail grapefruit. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 15 NASS, USDA 

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Dry weather continued during January as drought conditions began to threaten 

fruit and nut orchards in the San Joaquin Valley. Pruning, fertilizing, and weed spraying continued in grape vineyards 

and dormant stone fruit orchards. Pre-emergent and contact herbicides were applied to orchard floors. Flower buds 

began developing on nectarine and apricot trees. Kiwifruit was harvested in various locations and olive trees were 

pruned. Raspberry and strawberry nursery stock digging continued but was nearly complete by month’s end. 

Herbicide spraying, insect trapping and pruning remained underway in nut orchards. Almond, walnut, and pistachio 

growers also removed and replaced old, non-productive trees. Almond trees were budding in some areas by the end of 

the month.
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 16 NASS, USDA 

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, 

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the 

season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on 

administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is 

determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are 

conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. 

Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, 

and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for 

Valencia oranges. 

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, 

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current 

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to 

prepare the published February 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each 

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary

released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing 

season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for 

recorded local utilization and home use. 

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean 

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the 

February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The 

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the 

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning 

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors 

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 3.9 percent. However, if you 

exclude the 5 abnormal production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square 

Error" is 3.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not 

be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.9 percent, or 3.3 percent excluding abnormal seasons. 

Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.7 percent, or 

5.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. 

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 

339,000 tons (314,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 655,000 tons (18,000 tons 

to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final 

estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The 

difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final 

production. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2009 17 NASS, USDA 

Information Contacts 

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to 

contact for additional information. 

Lance Honig, Chief .......................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127 

Field Crops Section 

Jacqueline Moore, Head .............................................................................. (202) 720-2127 

Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye .......................................................................... (202) 720-8068 

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings..................................................... (202) 720-5944 

Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum............................................................. (202) 690-3234 

Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed.................................................... (202) 720-9526 

Jacqueline Moore - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops............................. (202) 720-2127 

Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice.............................................................. (202) 720-7688 

Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.............................. (202) 720-7369 

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section 

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head ............................................................................ (202) 720-2127 

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco ........................... (202) 720-7235 

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, 

Onions, Strawberries..................................................... (202) 720-2157 

Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, 

Prunes............................................................................ (202) 720-4288 

Mike Jacobson - Cranberries ....................................................................... (202) 720-9085 

Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts............................................ (202) 720-4215 

Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas ............................................................. (202) 720-3250 

Suzanne Avilla - Citrus, Coffee, Tropical Fruits ......................................... (202) 720-5412 

Faye Propsom - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes................................. (202) 720-4285 

Kim Ritchie - Hops...................................................................................... (360) 902-1940 
 

 

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Global Agriculture & Rural America 

in Transition 

Food & Energy: Expectations & Realities 

February 26-27, 2009 

Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel 

Arlington, Virginia 

www.usda.gov/oce/forum 

Early Bird Registration $350 until January 23, 2009 * $375 after January 23 

Topical Sessions Will Address: 

*Commodity Markets *Rural America 

*Trade & Farm Policy *Food Safety & Food Security 

*Conservation *Energy 

 *Risk Management *Biotechnology 

 *Food Prices *World Markets