rw

SOYBEANS: ROW SPACING--1986

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted soybean objective
yield surveys in 15 States which accounted for about 89 percent of the 1986
U.S. soybean production. Plots were randomly selected from a scientifically
drawn sample of soybean fields, which were visited monthly from about August ?
through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements.

Sample data and the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the
following table are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics
Board but are intended to show trends in soybean production practices.

In the 11 States where comparable row space measurements are available, 5
decreased and 6 increased from last year. Ohio continues to have the
Rarrowest row space measurements because a high percentage of the acreage is
gril planted. Louisiana row spacing was the widest followed by lowa and
Arkansas.

MEASURED ROW SPACING OF SOYBEANS: PERCENTAGES DISTRIBUTION AND
AVERAGE WIOTH FOR SELECTED STATES, 1984-86 1/

ROW WIDTH GROUPS (INCHES)

VERAGE
IDTH 2/
THCHES)

: NUMBER
: OF
SAMPLES

9 15.2 20.9 51.8 32.9
1985 : 3 17.3 28.8 43.5 32.4
1986 : 7 13.3 29.2 42.4 31.0
TLL 1984 : 167 16.8 6.6 3.3 50.6 22.8 27.0
1985 173 19.7 5.2 3.8 47.4 24.0 26.7
1986 : 174 16.7 4,3 4.3 53.2 21.5 * 27.4
IND 1984: 112 15.2 6.3 6.3 53.1 28.5
1985 : 106 7.1 9.0 2.8 59.9 29.1
1986 : 105 13.8 9.6 4.8 55.5 26.7
IOWA 1984 : 139 6.1 3.6 7.2 44.6 31.2
1985 : 147 4.8 5.8 4.4 51.0 30.5
1986 : 147 5.1 2.4 7.9 49.5 31.3
KY 1984 : NA NA NA NA NA NA
1985 : 79 11.4 18.4 22.2 36.7 26.
1986 : 89 16.4 11.9 12.4 47.4 27.0
LA 1984: 103 19.9 15 15.0 21.8 42.7 33.8
1985 : 98 18.9 6.6 6.6 31.6 36.2 31.7
1986 : 91 18.7 1.7 8.8 26.3 44.5 33.5
MINN 1984 : 105 21.0 5.7 14.3 36.2 22.9 26.2
1985: 104 19:2 nn 8.2 48.1 16.8 25.8
1986 : 95 11.6 2.7 10.6 59.3 16.4 28.1
MISS 1984: 108 18.5 6.0 12.5 23.1 39.8 29.1
1985 : 112 15.6 8.9 12.1 24.6 3 29.1
1986 : 107 13.5 9.4 14.0 19.6 4 28.7
MO 1984: 155 28.7 5.8 6.5 41.6 17.7 25.0
1985 : 144 25.7 4.5 5.2 47.2 17.4 25.7
1986: 140 15.4 2.9 6.1 54.5 21.1 27.6
OHIO 1984 t 115 36.5 14.8 8.3 32.6 7.8 20.3
1985 : 109 33.5 14.7 3.2 40.4 8.3 21.3
1986 : VW 41.4 10.8 8.1 33.8 5.9 19.5
TENN 1984: 85 10.0 6.5 15.9 13.5 54.7 31.8"
1985 : 85 15.3 6.5 8.8 21.8 47.6 31.6
12.8 3 3

NA NOT AVAILABLE, V BASED ON ROW MEASUREMENTS IN PLOTS SELECTED FOR
OBJECTIVE YIELD SAMPLES. 2/ BROADCAST SOYBEANS INCLUDED AS 10.0 INCHES AND
LESS BUT EXCLUDED IN COMPUTATION OF AVERAGE WIDTH.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-20 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO

2 : IND: : IND : : IND
t 1985 : 1986 : 1985 + 1986 + 1984 + 1985 1986
ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

CONN 2,000 1,980 1,658 1,565 2,824 3,315 3,099
FLA 6,100 5,500 2,675 2,430 17,920 16,318 13,365
GA 36,000 33,000 2,280 2,070 85,500 82,080 68,310
IND 6,500 6,100 2,240 2,100 18,792 14,560 12,810
KY 186,300 159,100 2,300 2,025 530,088 428,409 322,178
MoD 20,000 18,000 1,330 1,250 30,360 26,600 22,500
MASS 490 480 1,594 1,460 785 781 701
woo 2,500 2,300 2,180 2,150 5,844 5,450 4,945
NC 250,700 218,000 2,220 2,040 590,026 556,522 444,720
OHIO 7,920 7,300 2,140 1,950 26,507 16,946 14,235
PA 11,500 11,000 1,904 1,850 22,370 21,900 20,350
sc 43,000 38,000 2,300 2,050 105,515 98,900 77,900
TENN 61,710 54,000 2,065 1,710 154,646 127,403 92,340
YA 43,300 39,000 2,104 1,920 115,897 91,092 74,880
WA 1/ 1,800 1,800 1,880 1,860 4,488 3,384 3,348
wis 8,200 6,700 2,141 2,200 16,400 17,560 14,740
us 688,020 602,260 2,196 1,977 1,727,962 1,511,220 1,190,421

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR. CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUGARBEETS 1/

: AREA HARVESTED =: YIELD
STATE Po reeeen nee eeee nnn n nnn neeeee:
: : IND: :
1985: 1986 : 1985: 1986: 1984 : 1985 1986
1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
197.0 23.5 25.0 5,088 4,771 4,925
36.9 18.5 23.0 964 46 849
160.0 23.0 25.5 3,312 3,496 4,080
+0 0.0 0.0 122 0 0
100.0 19.7 19.0 2,117 2,325 1,900
311.0 18.4 17.0 4,340 5,088 5,287
47.2 19.0 21.5 416 611 1,015
59.0 23.1 23.0 1,480 1,229 1,357
16.8 1 2,309 2,423 2,835
20.3 201 258 300
307 319 384
824 833 851
654 1,037 985

22,134 22,636 24,768

1/ RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR
OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED BEETS IN CALIF.

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

STATE :

2 ’ IND : : IND 3 IND

’

1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 Tons

FLA t 398.7 405.0 32.9 33.0 12,617 13,117 13,365
HAW 89.4 90.0 90.9 94.0 8,684 8,129 8,460
LA 250.0 275.0 24.0 27.0 5,060 6,006 7,425
TEX 31.9 3.4 30.1 32.0 979 961 1,005
us Ay 770.0 601.4 36.6 37.8 27,340 28,213 30,255
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NOVEMBER 1986 A-14 NASS, USDA


U.S. CORN PRODUCTION
MONEBER 1088

BILLION BUSELS
.
ot
ot
rE
ok

F
sk
ab
ab
2b
re
' n n n « a @ Cc OT 5 ®

vem

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: Production is forecast at 900 million bushels (22.9 million

metric tons). This is 19 percent less than the 1985 crop
but 1 percent more than the October 1 forecast. Area for harvest jis 13.5
million acres (5.46 million hectares), down 19 percent from last year. Yields
are expected to average 66.7 bushels per acre, equaling the record high set in
1985.

As of November 2, harvest had progressed to 70 percent completion in the
major producing States. This trails last year's and average progress by 3 and
4 points, respectively. Harvest was complete in Arkansas, Louisiana, and
Mississippi. Heavy rains, flooding, and cool temperatures affected harvest
progress in several States. The Kansas harvest is back on schedule, with good
yields reported. Oklahoma's progress is well behind schedule; crop is in good
condition in the Panhandle. South Dakota's crop is 50 percent harvested; the
remainder is in fair to good condition. Some harvest progress was made in the
Texas High Plain's late in October. Some areas affected by the mid-month
freeze report light test weights.

RICE: Rice production is forecast at 131 million hundredweight (5.95 million

metric tons), up 1 percent from the October 13 forecast but 4 percent
below the 136 millfon hundredweight (6.17 million metric tons) produced in
1985. Harvested area, at 2.33 million acres (944 thousand hectares), is un-
changed from October 1, but is 7 percent below 1985. Yield is estimated at a
record high 5626 pounds per acre. This is 74 pounds above the October 1
estimate and 189 pounds greater than the previous record yield set in 1985.
Yield per acre was up 100 pounds in Arkansas and 300 pounds in Texas from
October 1, but down 100 pounds in Mississippi.

Harvest advanced rapidly and was nearly finished in the Delta, by mid-
October. In California, rice harvest neared completion at the end of October.
Second-crop rice harvest was underway in Texas and Louisiana.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 B-3 NASS, USDA


es

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE:

CORN FOR GRAIN BU 119.3 8,865,006 8,220,201 8,222,576
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN * uv 32,571 ag 990038

RICE
SOYBEANS FOR
BEANS 1,991,763 2,009,333

PEANUTS FOR NUTS, 1B 3,368,950 3,447,550
ALL Ci BALE 1/ 10;005.9 93874.9
UPLAND “u 95812.4 9,687.4
AMER PINK Ton! 193.5 187.5
COTTONSE 3,953 3,897
ORY EDIBLE BEANS c¥T'1/ 221268 22,321 22,685
POTATOES
FALL cur 353,638 307,548
TOTAL . 407,109 352,274
TOBACCO 8 1,511,220 1,215,781 1,190,427
SUGARBEETS TOW 20.8 * 22,636 255034 24,768
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED * 37.8 = 28,213 30,255 30,255
PASTURE AND RANGE .
FEED 2/ Pct
DRIED PRUNES
ALTE TOW 139.0 95.0 95.0
FIUBERTS . 24.6 17.3 15.6
7 1986-87

CITRUS FRUITS 3/ 1985-86 1986-8:

TEHONS “8 8,350 + *
17°" YIELD IW POUNDS. 2/ PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST’ OF
MONTH. THE 1975-84 AVERAGE IS 74 PERCENT. 3/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOON OF
THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN ANO ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING
YEAR,

UNITED STATES’ CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

: INDICATED
1986 1/ 1985 1986 1/

OATS Bu: $3.7 54.9 520,800 383,553
BARLEY sos $1.0 ¢ $0.0 591,383 599,843
ALL WHEAT “3 37.5 ht 34.3 2,425,105 2,076,674
WINTER so: 38.3 35.2 1,827,615 1,517,742
DURUM oo: 36.8 2, 33.1 112,510 92,957
yQTHER ‘spring soo 35.4 "82 32.0
oo: 28.8 27.1
SUNFLOWER ar LB: 1,109 1,298
ALU HAY TON: 2.46 59
ALFALFA . t 3.32 261
ALL OTHE! : 1.83 1.83
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 27 cut 3/3 1,769
AUSTRIAN WINTER
PEAS 2/ 1,429
LENTILS 2/ 1,203
POTATOES
WINTER 243
SPRING . 261
SUMMER : 218
woRS 1,967
APPLES, COM'L
PEACHES z
PEARS TON:
GRAPES so
SWEET CHERRIES “og
TART CHERRIES: ue:
APRI TON :
woos

PISTACHIO NUTS
(CALIF)

PECANS
ALKONDS (CALIF.
WALMUTS (CALIF

ITRUS FRUITS 4/

17” ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. excerT, CHERRIES END-OF-
SEASON ESTIMATES, 2/ ESTIMATES REINSTATED IN 1986. 3/ ELD IN POUNDS.
4/_ SEASON BEGINS WITH THe BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS “WITH THE
COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 AS WASS, USDA



POTATOES: VARIETIES GROWN - 1986

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts potato objective
yield surveys in 11 major fall producing States. These 11 States accounted
for 93 percent of the 1985 U.S. fall potato production. All producing areas
of each State are represented in the sample in proportion to planted acreage
of potatoes. Variety information in the table below is derived from data
reported for farms in the objective yield sample. These data are intended to
provide current information on varieties and are not designated as official
estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board.

FALL POTATOES: PERCENT OF MAJOR VARIETIES PLANTED,
SELECTED STATES, 1986 CROP

: FIRST SECOND
STATE ere en eee nnn en eee nee nn nnn nnn ne nn nen en een en nee eee e nen ne

: VARIETY PERCENT VARIETY PERCENT
COLO : CENTENNIAL RUSSET 66.0 : RUSSET BURBANK 23.7
IDAHO : RUSSET BURBANK 94.3 : NORGOLD 2.1
MAINE : RUSSET BURBANK 27.6 : ONTARIO 17.8
MICH : RUSSET BURBANK 32.1 : ATLANTIC 16.3
MINN : RUSSET BURBANK 31.4 : NORCHIP 24.1
NY : SUPERIOR 26.0 : KATAHDIN 19.4
N DAK : NORCHIP 47.3 : RUSSET BURBANK 17.3
OREG : RUSSET BURBANK 84.2 : NORGOLD 6.6
PA : KATAHDIN 24.5 : NORCHIP 22.5
WASH : RUSSET BURBANK 79.1 : NORGOLD 6.7
WIS : RUSSET BURBANK 47.4 =: NORLAND 10.9

: THIRD FOURTH
COLO : SANGRE 7.2 RED MCCLURE 1.0
IDAHO :
MAINE : SHEPODY 13.8 SUPERIOR 13.6
MICH : ONTARIO 8.4 ONOWAY 7.1
MINN : PONTIAC 11.1 NORLAND 8.9
NY : MONONA 16.4 HUDSON 6.7
N DAK : NORLAND 11.0 PONTIAC 7.3
OREG : EARLY GEM 6.1 SHEPODY 1.2
PA : ATLANTIC 15.2 SUPERIOR 9.3
WASH : LEMHI RUSSET 4.1 NORCHIP 3.4
WIS : NORGOLD 9.6 SUPERIOR 9.2

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-21 NASS, USDA


DRY BEANS: The 1986 dry bean crop is forecast at 22.7 million cwt (1.03 mil-

. lion metric tons), up 2 percent from last year and 8 percent above
two-years ago. Area for harvest is set at 1.47 million acres (595 thousand
hectares), down 1 percent from last year but up 1 percent from 1984. The
average yield is forecast at 1543 pounds per acre, up 45 pounds from Vast year
and 100 pounds from 1984.

Harvest in Michigan has been very difficult because of heavy rains in
September and early October. As of November 1, threshing was about three-
fourths complete. Favorable weather during the Tast 3 weeks of October helped
dry up fields that were thought to be lost.

Nebraska, North Dakota, and Minnesota are expecting bumper crops, with
harvest virtually complete. Harvest in Colorado's dryland area has been rain-
delayed; while other areas are finished. California harvest is active, but
winding down.

POTATOES: Fall potato production is forecast at 308 million cwt (14.0 million

metric tons), off 13 percent from last year's record high produc-
tion and 2 percent below 1984. Area for harvest is set at 1.03 million acres
(416 thousand hectares), down 1 percent from the July 1 estimate and 10
percent from last year. The average yield is 299 cwt per acre, down 9 cwt
from last year but up 13 cwt from two years ago.

EASTERN STATES production is forecast at 35.8 million cwt, down 22 percent
from last year and 7 percent from 1984. Harvested area, at 143 thousand
acres, is down 14 percent and yields averaging 250 cwt per acre fell 9 percent.
All of the 7 eastern States camé out with smaller crops than last year;
Maine's production was down 26 percent, New York--20 percent, and
Pennsylvania~-10 percent. New York and New England harvest was delayed by
rain and frost hit northern fields.

The efght CENTRAL STATES are expected to produce 72.8 million cwt of
potatoes this year, down 10 percent from last year and 4 percent below 2 years
ago. Northern States were hit hard by rain in September, delaying harvest
considerably. Some acreage was drowned in Michigan and North Dakota.

The nine WESTERN STATES should produce 199 million cwt of potatoes this
year, down 12 percent from last year, but production is about equal to two
years ago. Idaho's production is down 15 percent from last year, but potatoes
went into storage in good condition. Washington harvest was virtually
finished by the end of October, sizes are down a little. Oregon's Malheur
County lost some yield potential because of hot, summer weather, but quality
is good statewide. Rain and some snow in Colorado delayed the wind-up of
harvest, but most potatoes went into storage in excellent shape.

ALL POTATO production for 1986 is forecast at 352 million cwt (16.0
million metric tons), down 13 percent from last year and 3 percent below two
years ago. Area for harvest, at 1.22 million acres (492 thousand hectares),
dropped 11 percent from last year; the average yield of 290 cwt per acre was
down 3 percent.

TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 1.19 billion pounds (540

thousand metric tons), off 2 percent from the October 1 forecast, 21
percent below last year's output, and the smallest crop since 1936. The de-
cline in production from 1985 is the combined result of decreased acreage and
lower yields. The 602 thousand acres (244 thousand hectares) expected to be
harvested are down 12 percent. The yield forecast of 1977 pounds per acre
compares with 2196 pounds the previous year.

In North Carolina, flue-cured markets in the Border and Eastern belts are
closed for the season. Old and Middte belt markets will be closing soon.
Quality was down a little from last year due to drought. Stabilization
corporation receipts were much lower.

In Kentucky, stripping is nearly one-third complete. This is behind last
year but ahead of average. Quality is variable, but is mostly good.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 B-6 NASS, USDA


OCTOBER WEATHER SUMMARY

As the month began, thunderstorms triggered torrential rain from north
central Texas through Oklahoma to west central Missouri. The storms caused
extensive widespread flooding that halted fieldwork. Subsequent thunderstorms
kept the ground wet until the last week of the month, when some fieldwork
resumed. Monthly rainfall totals were in excess of 10 inches through much of
this area. It was also excessively wet from Nebraska into Iowa and from
southern Illinois to Ohio. Thunderstorms brought welcome rain to much of the
drought area in the Southeast but most of the dry areas in the mid-Atlantic
States remained dry. The rainy season had begun in the Northwest but rain
amounts were far less than normal. Although there were some very cold
mornings in the northern Plains and Great Lakes Region, and some hot days in
the Southeast, average temperatures were near normal for the month. (Prepared
by the Joint USOA/NOAA Agricultural Weather Facility.)

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

Heavy rain and wetness restricted winter wheat seeding in the Corn Belt
and southern Great Plains during most of October. Early to mid-month rain
hampered seeding in the central Great Plains. Oryness caused some seeding
delays in the Southeast. Seeding surged in the Corn Belt the last 7 to 10
days of the month but for the most part seeding was still behind normal as the
month closed. In the 20 major producing States, planting was 84 percent
finished by November 2 compared with 82 percent last year and the 87 percent
average. Seventy-seven percent of the acreage was emerged, 1? point ahead of
normal. Winter wheat was mostly good except in the Southeast and in Michigan
where condition was fair. Ample moisture provided good growth and germination
in the Great Plains and Delta.

In Kansas, seeding at 90 percent completion was 5 points behind normal.
Planting was 75 percent finished in Oklahoma, trailing the normal pace by 10
points. Seeding was 1, 2, 12, 19, and 30 points behind normal in Illinois,
Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, and Michigan, respectively. Ninety-two percent of
Montana's acreage was seeded, 5 points below the 97 percent average. Seeding
was complete in Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Washington and neared
completion in Colorado and Idaho, at months‘ end. In Texas, winter wheat was
88 percent seeded compared with 79 percent average. Rust and greenbugs
invaded many fields near the end of October.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 8.22 billion
bushels (209 million metric tons), down 7 percent from last
year's record high crop but virtually the same as the October 1 forecast.

The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at a record high 119.3 bushels,
up 0.1 of a bushel from the October 1 forecast. The previous record yield was
118.0 bushels set in 1985. Of the top 10 producing States, 8 are equaling or
setting new record yields.

The wet weather in late September and early October delayed harvest but
since then the weather has been fairly good and by November 2, 63 percent of
the crop had been harvested in the 17 major producing States. This compares
with 57 percent last year and 66 percent average. The wet weather has caused
some problems with sprouting and mold. Some fields are still very wet and dry
weather is needed to enable the farmers to get the heavy harvesting equipment
into the fields. Iowa, Michigan, and Missouri appear to be most affected by
the wet fields. In many areas the moisture content of the corn is quite high
so growers are reluctant to harvest until the corn has dried some. Otherwise,
they would be faced with the high cost of drying the corn.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 B-2 NASS, USDA



CORN CROPPING PRACTICES
PLANT POPULATION PER ACRE AND ROW WIDTH

The National Agricultural Statistics Service collects objective information
on corn development during the production period. Counts and measurements are
made by trained enumerators during visits to random plots in a scientific
sampling of fields in 10 States which account for approximately 84 percent of
the 1986 corn production. Information in the following tables represents
sample data and averages from these counts. The data, which are subject to
sampling fluctuations, are not official Agricultural Statistics Board estimates
but do show trends in corn cropping practices.

In 1986, the plant population showed an increase from 1985 in 8 States and
decreased in 2 States. Average row widths tended to decrease in 1986 with 5
States showing decreases, 4 States showing an increase and 1 State unchanged
from last year.

CORN FOR GRAIN: PLANT POPULATION PER ACRE,
SELECTED STATES, 1982-86 1/

STATE : 1982 : 1983

: 1984

NUMBER OF PLANTS
TLL : 22,200 22,000 21,900 22,200 22,300
IND : 21,700 20,900 21,000 21,100 21,500
IOWA : 21,100 21,800 21,400 21,700 21,600
MICH : 20,700 19,200 20,600 20,900 20,700
MINN : 20,700 20,700 21,200 22,000 22,800
MO : 16,800 18,200 17,000 17,200 17,500
NEBR : 19,400 20,100 20,300 20,700 21,100
OHIO : 21,700 20,800 21,500 22,400 22,600
S DAK : 14,800 15,000 14,500 15,500 15,800
WIS : 20,900 20,300 20,500 21,200 21,700

1/ BASED ON STALK COUNTS IN PLOTS SELECTED FOR OBJECTIVE YIELD SAMPLES.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-18 NASS, USDA


DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

AREA HARVES

IND
1986
2 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
LARGE LIMA Ay
CALIF 3 43.0 17.0 2,120 2,200 648 912 374
BABY LIMA t
CALIF : 26.0 30.0 2,460 2,400 546 640 720
OTHER t
CALIF 2 104.0 108.0 1,840 1,860 2,024 1,914 2,009
ALL t
CALIF 2 173.0 155.0 2,003 2,002 3,218 3,466 3,103
COLO 2 220.0 220.0 1,340 1,300 2,394 2,948 2,860
IDAHO fy 118.0 133.0 1,700 1,850 2,470 2,006 2,461
KANS 2/e 16.0 20.0 1,700 1,650 204 272 330
MICH : 410.0 300.0 1,320 900 4,290 5,412 2,700
MINN fy 62.0 61.0 1,400 1,650 700 868 1,007
MONT 2/3 3.0 2.7 1,900 1,900 152 57 51
NEBR : 146.0 205.0 1,850 2,050 3,230 2,701 4,203
NY 2 33.0 30.0 900 1,250 372 297 375
N DAK 2 237.0 275.0 1,270 1,550 2,520 3,010 4,263
UTAH 2/i 8.4 8.8 480 550 54 40 48
WASH : 33.0 28.0 2,150 2,300 707 710 644
wyo z 27.0 32.0 1,780 2,000 759 481 640
us s 1,486.4 1,470.5 1,498 1,543 21,070 22,268 22,685

1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

2 AREA HARVESTED YIELD t PRODUCTION
IND
1985 : 1986 : 1984 1985 1986
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1, 000 BUSHELS
1,030 630 27.0 22.0 28,770 27,810 13,860
3,700 3,400 26.5 20.0 101,400 98,050 68,000
240 230 30.0 27.0 6,000 7,200 6,210
230 170 26.0 23.0 7,800 5,980 3,910
4,550 850 24.0 16.0 40,000 37,200 13,600
9,000 8,950 42.5 42.0 284,130 382,500 375,900
4,460 4,250 41.5 38.0 150,075 185,090 161,500
8,150 8,600 38.0 42.0 264,600 309,700 361,200
1,410 1,760 31.0 3. 27,825 43,710 56,320
1,230 1,070 34.0 30. 42,340 41,820 32,100
2,100 1,900 21.0 21.0 66,825 44,100 39,900
400 380 32.0 26.0 12,325 12,800 9,880
1,080 950 32.0 30.0 32,130 34,560 28,500
5,000 4,850 32.0 36.0 172,920 160,000 174,600
2,620 2,500 27.0 18.0 76,800 70,740 45,000
5,230 5,400 34.5 34.0 108,650 180,435 183,600
2,360 2,450 36.0 39.0 66,300 84,960 95,550
129 118 34.0 26.0 4,123 4,386 3,068
1,700 1,600 23.0 23.0 46,540 39,100 36,800
490 490 26.0 29.0 17,020 12,740 14,210
3,870 3,650 4t.5 42.0 137,605 160,605 153,300
190 230 23.0 21.0 4,180 4,370 4,830
170 180 35.0 30.0 5,950 5,950 5,400
1,230 900 20.0 16.0 29,800 24,600 14,400
1,270 1,340 32.0 30.0 31,280 40,640 40,200
1,460 1,500 31.0 25.0 48,100 45,260 37,500
290 210 25.0 23.0 11,890 7,250 4,830
695 635 25.0 33. 6 73080 17,375 14,605
300 320 32.0 9,600 10,560

61,584 59,513 34.1 33: 8 1, 860. "363 2, 098, 531 2,009,333

FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A~10 NASS, USDA


INDEX

BEANS, DRY EDIBLE ...ccsescceccccccrcccccccsvavescrececcesscessssees A-10
CITRUS FRUIT 2. .ccceecnee se ceceeenccee seeeeeeceece eee ceeenee seceenee A-16
CORN CROPPING PRACTICES ..cccecccccececsceccccccesvccseccsccesessace A-18
CORN FOR GRAIN .cccccccncccceccceccscssccsccsenccessseensscese ovecee A- 8
CORN FOR GRAIN ROW WIDTH ..cccccccccsccccccccccccvesenseccsscesceese A-19
COTTON ...eeeeeee secceeseces

COTTONSEED ..ceceeees
CROP MOISTURE MAPS .ccccceccccccvccvcscnsscccsccecesscccssscnsesceee B- 1

NUTS cccccevecccccccsscsecccsccenseccnsrsereeseeeeneseesseeneeseeees A-15

PAPAYAS ...eeevee sae ceeeeeeeceee eee eee eee eee eee ee eee eee eee eee A-15
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION ..-sccecccscncsccccccvsseccsscceces A-17

PEANUTS FOR NUTS ..ccescccccccceccrccvecscccccccseceesecescncs soees A-11

POTATOES, AREA PLANTED .....
POTATOES ..... see eeeeeeeees st eeeeecnoeees be ececcceeeee see ceeeeeneees A-12
POTATOES, VARIETIES GROWN .....ccccccscccvccccccccctscccvevssececess A-21
PRUNES, DRIED ..ccccesceccccncccccccscesencees se eecccecceces eeeeceees A-15
RELIABILITY STATEMENT ..scesesecccccecvcecccucns see ceeeeeeeeeene sees A- 3

SOYBEANS, ROW SPACING ...cscecccccccsccccecescncecceses Perrerrer eee A-20
SUGARBEETS ..cececcescencccccsceee eer seen cece neceneerensee A-14
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED ....ccccccscnccccccsccccccsccvscscusese A-14
TOBACCO BY STATES ..ccecececccccccccsevenss eee eee eee eee reer ee ees A-14
US SUMMARY .....00. aera wceeececereeteecceencces eee reer A- 4

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 B-9 NASS, USDA

‘U.S, GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE s1986-180-915 140721/WASS:


UNITEO STATES CROP SUNMARY-YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

“YIELD PER HECTARE

PRODUCTION
inpicareD

“WETRIC TONS”

CORN FOR GRAIN :

7.4) 7.49 225,181,520

SORGRUM FOR GRAIN =: 4.19 4ci9 28,260,610
RICE : B09 6.3) 8,170,780 5,875,700 5,954,730
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 2.29 2.27 57,112,650 54,206,910 54,685,080
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 3.15 2,54 1,870,050 1,528,120 3,563,770
ALL COTTON 0.71 0.61 2,924,500 2,178,520 2,149,990

UPLAND 0.70 0.6) 2,890,730 2,136,390 2,109,170

AMER-PIMA : 1200 0.95 33,770 423130 7820
COTTONSEED : 4,789,030 3,586,100 3,535,300
DRY EDIGLE BEANS : 1.73 1,010,050 1,012,460 1,028,970
P

FALL 33.55 16,040,670 13,950,070

TOTAL 32.47 18,466,060 15,978,800
TOBACCO : 2.22 685,470 551,190 5399
SUGARBEETS 103 46.72 20,535,030 22,710,460 22,469,150
SUGARCANE FOR

SUGAR AND SEED 14 84,63 25,594,400 27,446,870 27,446,870
ORTED PRUNES (CALIF) 126,100 86, 180 86,180
FILBERTS 22,320 15,690 14,150
CITRUS FRUITS 1/ 1985-86 1986-87 1986-87
“TENORS 832,310 851,850 ‘BST, 850

17, SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENOS WITH THE
COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY-YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

veto PER HECTARE

: P INDICATED
: 1985: (1986 -1/

METRIC TONS

INDICATED
1986 1/

OATS 2.28 1.97 7,559,390 5,567,260
BARLEY 2074 2.69 12,875,840 13,060,040
ALL WHEAT 2.52 2.3) 66,000,540 56,517,800
WINTER 2.56 2.37 49,739,530 41,306,170
DURUM : 2.45 2223 3,062,020 2,529,870
OTHER SPRING : 2.38 2015 13,198,990 12,681,760
RYE : 18} 1.70 524,200 454,480
SUNFLOWER 1.24 145 1,430,180 1,085,580
ALL HAY §.51 5.82 135,133,330 143,343,350
ALFALFA 7.45, 8.10 77,374,690 85,820,580
ALL OTHER 4209 4.09 57,758,640 57,522,770
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 2/ 1.98 150,050
AUSTRIAN WENTER 3
PEAS 2/ : 1.60 20,410
LENTILS 2/ : 1.35 91,130
POTATOES. :
WINTER : 22.86 27.24 122,060 135,670
SPRING + 29.61 29.30 1,042,620 896,430
osuner : 27.35 24.48 996,630
: 1.98 2.20 225370
foples, coM*L : 3,509,880
PEA :
PEARS :
GRAPES :
SWEET CHERRIES :
TART CHERRIES :
APRICOTS :
NECTARINES (CALIF)
PLUMS, (CALIF)
OLIVES (CALIF) 87, 330
PRUNES AND PLUMS
(EXCL CALIF) 45,990
PISTACHIO NUTS
(CALIF) : 12,290
PECANS : 110,860
ALMONDS {cate 2 210,920
WALNUTS (CALIF : 198,670 172,370
CITRUS FRUITS 3/ 1985-86 1986-87
ORRICES 6,814,770 7,721, 050
17 ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST EXCEPT CHERRIES ENO~OF-
SEASON ESTIMATES. 2/ ESTIMATES REINSTATED IN 1986. 3/ SEASON BEGINS WITH

ThE BLOGM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST “THE
FOLLOWING YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 Ae] NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY~AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS

AREA PLANTED

crop : INDICATED
1986
: HECTARES
CORN : 33,730,100 31,017,870 30,405,980 27,903,780
SORGHUM : 73399,760 6,059,420 6,746,990 53460,890
RICE : 1,020,630 950,210 1,012,530 944,149
SOYBEANS : 25,548,080 25,024,010 24,922,430 24,084,320
PEANUTS : 603,150 609,060 593,840 615,530
ALL COTTON : 4,323,950 3,881,220 4,139,570 3,512,870
UPLAND : 4,289,960 3,840,350 4,105,740 3,469,770
AMER~PIMA : 33,990 40,870 33,830 43,100
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 637,750 688,380 601,530 595,100
POTATOES :
FALL : 480,080 427,310 464,180 415,820
TOTAL : 570,250 504,810 550,820 492,100
TOBACCO : 278,430 243,740
SUGARBEETS : 455,070 501,010 446,170 480,930
SUGARCANE FOR :
SUGAR AND SEED : 311,610 324,320

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY-AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
{METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

INDICATED
1986 1/

CROP
1986 1/

HECTARES
OATS H 5,364,170 5,952,180 3,309,150 2,827,570
BARLEY H 5,324,100 5,274,320 4,695,620 4,850,219
ALL WHEAT : 30,584,450 29,070,500 26,197,200 24,476,870

WINTER 2 23,371,660 21,824,930 19,406,100 17,448,210

DURUM : 1,297,840 1,161,060 1,252,110 1,135,160

OTHER SPRING H 5,914,950 6,084,510 5,538,990 5,893,500
RYE 3 1,037,220 956,690 290,160 267,100
FLAXSEED : 250,910 281,260 236,340 270,740
SUNFLOWER 2 1,236,330 766,890 1,150,940 746,250
ALL HAY 3 24,505,200 24,646,430

ALFALFA H 10,389,610 10,596,810

ALL OTHER : 14,115,590 14,049,620
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 2/ : 76,080 75,680
AUSTRIAN WINTER :

PEAS 2/ : 12,950 12,750
LENTILS 2/ : 68,800 67,580
POTATOES 3

WINTER : 5,340 5,060 5,340 4,980

SPRING 3 37,230 31,040 35,210 30,590

SUMMER 3 47,590 41,400 46,090 40,710
SWEETPOTATOES 44,600 39,780 42,610 38,490
HOPS 11,370 10,120

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ESTIMATES REINSTATED IN 1986.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1984 A-6 NASS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN: PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION BY ROW WIDTH AND AVERAGE
ROW WIOTH FOR SELECTED STATES, 1984-86

: AVERAGE

AND 2 OF 0.5 :30.6- :32.6- :34.6- :36.6- :38.6- : 40.6 &: ROW
YEAR :SAMPLES:OR LESS:32.5 :34.5 :36.5 :38.5 :40.5 :GREATER: WIDTH
> NUMBER PERCENT OF SAMPLES

ILL 1984 : 229 39.7 13.1 1.3 14.9 23.6 7.4 0 33.6
1985 : 227 44.1 13.2 1.35 181 19.4 3.5 4 33.1

1986 : 233 48.5 10.3 1.30 15.0 21.5 3.0 4 32.9

IND 1984 : 167 46.7 18.5 O 12.6 18.6 3.0 6 32.7
1985 : 167 48.5 13.7 4.2 13.8 15.0 4.8 0 32.6

1986 : 167 52.1 16.7 1.2 9.6 16.2 4.2 0 32.4

IA 1984 : 195 37.5 9.2 1.0 8.7 32.8 10.3 5 34.1
1985 : 209 35.9 13.9 +5 10.0 29.2 9.1 1.4 33.9

1986 : 211 36.5 12.3 1.4 7.6 26.5 15.2 5 34.1

MICH 1984 : 87 47.1 21.8 2.3 4.6 16.1 3.5 4.6 32.5
1985: 89 47.2 18.0 3.3 4.5 13.5 10.1 3.4 32.7

1986 : 88 54.5 19.3 3.4 §.7 12.5 4.6 0 32.0

MINN 1984 : 171 °36.8 10.5 1.2 14.0 21.1 14.6 1.8 34.0
1985 : 168 42.3 15.4 1.2 12.5 25.0 2.4 1.2 33.1

1986 : 164 50.6 11.0 6 9.8 24.4 3.6 0 32.8

MO 984: 122 28.7 14.7 -8 13.9 27.1 11.5 3.3 34.5
1985 : 129 38.0 19.4 3.1 11.6 18.6 9.3 0 33.2

1986 : 127 32.3 19.7 1.6 10.2 25.2 11.0 0 33.8

NEBR 1984 > 195 28.2 9.8 +5 29.2 23.6 8.2 ) 34.4
1985 : 195 30.8 13.3 1.5 21.6 23.1 9.2 5 34.1

1986 : 191 31.9 13.1 0 22.0 23.6 8.4 1.0 34.1

OHIO 1984 : 156 48.7 18.6 1.9 9.6 16.7 4.5 0 32.3
1985 : 157 56.1 15.9 1.9 7.0 10.2 8.3 6 32.2

1986 : 159 49.7 18.2 5.7 6.3 16.4 3.1 +6 32.3

S DAK 1984: 92 5.4 10.9 0 7.6 43.5 28.3 4.3 37.0
1985: 97 13.4 5.2 1.0 7.2 42.3 26.8 4.1 36.7

1986 : 112 15.2 5.4 a) 6.2 41.1 28.5 2.7 36.5

WIS 1984 : 125 16.0 8.8 2.4 16.8 31.2 20.0 4.8 35.9
1985 : 130 18.5 7.7 4.6 11.5 34.6 21.6 1.5 35.7

1986 : 134 12.7 9.0 5.2 16.4 32.1 22.4 2.2 35.9

1/_ SPACINGS BASED ON ROW MEASUREMENTS IN SAMPLE PLOTS SELECTED FOR OBJECTIVE
YIELD DETERMINATIONS.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-19 NASS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

1985

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA / t 230 90 55.0 45.0 9,000 12,650 4,050
ARIZ 1/7 3 16 10 81.0 87.0 1,360 1,296 870
ARK : 920 595 72.0 60.0 42,480 66,240 35,700
CALIF 1/ : 36 26 83.0 85.0 3,936 2,988 2,210
COLO : 320 280 35.0 39.0 15,910 11,200 10,920
GA v/ 2 138 65 48.0 30.0 4,746 6,624 1,950
TLL 2 470 200 77.0 95.0 19,665 36,190 19,000
IND 2/ : 845

1OWA 2/ 1 660

KANS + 4,200 4,000 69.0 73.0 216,750 289,800 292,000
KY / 3 143 65 80.0 75.0 9,200 11,440 4,875
LA : 410 360 68.0 69.0 17,485 27,880 24,840
MISS 3 620 240 64.0 60.0 23,680 39,680 14,400
MO Fy 1,410 1,090 83.0 81.0 91,770 117,030 88,290
NEBR : 1,920 1,500 80.0 85.0 121,600 153,600 127,500
N MEX : 290 220 48.0 46.0 15,400 13,920 10,120
nec vA 2 62 50 52.0 28.0 3,025 3,224 1,400
OKLA z 500 450 45.0 45.0 18,000 22,500 20,250
sc / t 47 38 47.0 28.0 1,564 2,209 1,064
S DAK ’ 375 350 40.0 46.0 16,565 15,000 16,100
TENN t 465 165 80.0 60.0 20,800 37,200 9,900
TEX ? 4,100 3,700 59.0 58.0 241,900 214,600
YA 2s :

Us 66.7 66.7 900,039

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1984 CROP.

1986

POUNDS 1,000 CWT

ARK 1,050.0 1,040.0 5,200 5,300 52,900 54,600 55,120
CALIF 400.0 340.0 7,400 7,700 32,060 29,594 26,180
LA 463.0 416.0 4,370 4,550 21,932 20,256 19,019
MISS 188.0 178.0 5,350 5,400 8,265 10,058 9,612
MO iva 72.0 68.0 4,810 4,600 3,493 3,463 3,128
TEX 329.0 289.0 5,490 6,300 20,160 18,071 18,207
us 2,502.0 2,333.0 5, 437 5,626 138,810 136,042 131,266

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

RICE PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

LONG GRAIN
1,000 CWT
96,029 35,304 7,477 138,810
100,938 28,680 6,424 136,042
96,353 30,460 4,453 131,266

7 INDICATED NOVEMBER 1, 1986, RICE CLASS FORECASTS ARE BASED ON A FIVE YEAR
AVERAGE OF CLASS PERCENTAGES. THE CLASS PERCENTAGES ARE ADJUSTED AS DATA
BECOME AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON,

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-9 NASS, USDA


PEANUTS: Production is forecast at 3.45 billion pounds (1.56 million metric

tons), 16 percent below 1985 production but up 2 percent from the
October 1 forecast. Area for harvest totals 1.52 million acres (616 thousand
hectares), up 4 percent from last year and virtually unchanged from the
October 1 forecast. Yield is expected to average 2267 pounds per acre, down
543 pounds from last year but up 51 pounds from October 1.

Production in the Southeast (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina)
is expected to total 2.08 billion pounds, down 25 percent from last year and
unchanged from the October 1 forecast. Harvesting of the crop in the 4-State
region remains well behind normal. In Alabama, only 73 percent of the crop
has been threshed, compared with a 5-year average of 100 percent. Harvesting
continued very active during the month in Florida, with harvest being 3 to 4
weeks later than normal. In Georgia, only 78 percent of the crop had been
threshed compared with an average of 96 percent. South Carolina harvest was
67 percent complete compared with 88 percent at this time last year and a
5-year average of 93 percent.

The Virginia-North Carolina crop is expected to reach 709 million pounds,
4 percent below the 1985 crop but 6 percent above the October 1 forecast.
Area for harvest increased 1,000 acres in Virginia from October 1, giving a

2-State total of 231 thousand acres. Favorable weather during the month in
both States allowed growers to complete harvest in Virginia and to be ahead of
last year in North Carolina.

Growers in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) expect to
harvest 657 million pounds, up 5 percent from last year and 7 percent above
the October 1 forecast. Despite the wet weather in Oklahoma and Texas,
growers are still expecting above average yields. Harvest was delayed by
rains but was still ahead of normal in both States.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

1077-1988
BILLION BUSHELS

368

2s oe

2b

as or

as

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 B-4 NASS, USDA


« ‘Agricultural United States
ro my Statistics Department of
Board Agriculture
Pp ro d H National Agricultural Washington, D.C. 20250
u | fe) n Statistics Service

RELEASED: November 10, 1986
3:00 P.M. ET

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production is forecast at 8.22 billion bushels (209 million
metric tons), down 7 percent from last year's record high crop but virtual-
ly the same as October 1. The 90 percent confidence interval for this
production forecast is 7.85 to 8.59 billion bushels.

SORGHUM GRAIN production is forecast at 900 million bushels (22.9 million
metric tons). This is 19 percent less than the 1985 crop but 1 percent
more than the October 1 forecast.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at 2.01 billion bushels (54.7 million metric
tons), up 1 percent from October 1 but 4 percent below last year. The 90
percent confidence interval for this production forecast is 1.91 to 2.11
billion bushels.

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 9.87 million bales, a decline of 1 percent
from October 1 and 26 percent below the 1985 crop. The 90 percent confi-
dence interval for this production forecast is 9.2 to 10.5 million bales.

PEANUT production is expected to total 3.45 billion pounds (1.56 million metric
tons), 16 percent below 1985 production but up 2 percent from the October 1
forecast.

ALL TOBACCO production is forecast at 1.19 billion pounds (540 thousand metric
tons), off 2 percent from the October 1 forecast and the smallest crop
since 1936.

FALL POTATO production is forecast at 308 million cwt (14.0 million metric
tons), down 13 percent from last year and 2 percent below 2 years ago.

DRY BEAN production is forecast at 22.7 million cwt (1.03 million metric tons),
up 2 percent from last year and 8 percent above 1984.

HARARE RERRRIIARI IAI IIIA IA RERIEIIIK RRRERKRE kk kkk
* Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports *

should be directed to Agricultural Statistics Board Publications, Room *
5829-South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-4021.)*
*

*

*
*
* This report and other statistical, economic, marketing and news reports *
* are available as soon as possible following release through USDA's EDI *
* SERVICE. For more information, call or write: Russel] Forte, (202) *
* 447-5505, OGPA, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250. *

ee *

CrPr 2-2 (11-86) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


_POTATOES

PRODUCTION

1,000 CWT
WINTER 1/ z ;
CALIF : 5.4 5.) 260 290 1,456 1,404 1,479
FLA : 7.8 7.2 165 210 1,184 1,287 1,512
TOTAL : 13.2 12.3 204 = 243 2,640 2,691 2,991
SPRING 1/ :
ALA : §.3 4.7 160 (145 644 348 682
ARIZ : 5.8 6.1 250 300 1,647 1,450 1,830
CALIF 2 27.5 19.5 385 380 11,115 10,588 7,410
FLA-HASTINGS : 26.0 24.5 245 = 270 6,500 6,370 6,615
OTHER : 1.3 +9 210 = 190 240 273 a7
LA : 6 +6 70 65 60 42 39
NC : (14.0 13.1 165 145 2,352 2,310 1,900
TEX : 6.5 6.2 170 = 180 1,240 1,105 1,116
TOTAL : 87.0 75.6 | 264 261 23,798 +=—«-22,986 «19,763
SUMNER Vv : ;
: 7.8 7.3 180. 135 955 1,408 986
CaCI : 7.2 6.6 375 360 2,916 2,7 2,376
coLo : 74 7.2 300 © 290 1,988 2,220 2,088
DEL : 6.5 6.9 280 190 1326: 1,820 2311
TLL : 3.0 2.9 285 250 636 725
IND : 1.9 2/140 2/ 216 266 ay
OWA : 1.6 1.7 206 = 190 210 330 323
MD : 1.6 1.6 200 170 296 320 272
MICH : 13.8 12.8 220 225 2,560 3,036 2,880
MINN : 6.5 6.2 275 = 265 1,680 4,788 1,643
NEBR : 2.5 2.2 280 260 72 700 572
Nod : 8.8 8.1 280 240 1,828 2,464 1,944
N MEX 10.4 9.4 275 310 2,639 2,860 2,914
Nc 2.3 V9 ° 115 90 348 ital
OHIO : Wt 2/310 2/ 342 341 27
TENN 3 2.5 2.0 150 90 270 375 180
TEX : 32.5 9.9 220 250 2,825 2,750 2,475
vA : 16.5 13.9 200 80 1,540 3,300 112
TOTAL : 113.9 100.6 «244218 = 23,086 = 27,794 21, 972
FALL :
CALIF 21.5 18.0 390 380 7,280 8,385 6,840
coLo : 56.0 52.0 320 325 17,225 17,920 16,900
CONN : 1.4 1.0 250 225 315 “350 225
IDAHO-10 SH CO : 29.0 17.0 375 . 350 9,380 10,875 5,950
OTHER CO 316.0 290.0 290 280 77,220 91,640 981,200
IND 3/ : 2.6 4.5 240 250 - 750 624 1,125
MAINE : 99.0 84.0 285 250 21,360 28,215 ~ 21,000
MASS : 3.3 2.9 250 245 580 825 TMm
MICH : 44.0 33.0 275 280 12,540 12,100 9,240
MINN : 69.0 70.0 205 195 13,775 14,145 13,650
MONT : 7.0 7.7 270 = 290 1,924 1,890 2,233
NEBR : 7.8 6.9 270 260 2,480 2,106 1,794
NEV : 9.0 8.0 345 355 3,300 3,105 2,840
NY-LONG IS > 28 8.9 300 290 3,577 3,870 2,58)
UPSTATE : (25.5 23.0 250 245 6,630 6,375 5,635
N DAK : 139.0 122.0 170 180 20,615 23,630 21,960
OHIO 3/ : 9.3 9.7 | 265-- 245 2,418 2,465 2,377
OREG-MALHEUR CO: 10.2 6.8 370 - 350 3,960 3,774 2,380
“OTHER CO: «= 50.8 44.2 455 460 19,565 23,114 20,332
PA : 22.0 21.5 260 240 $,160 5,720 5,160
RI : 2.5 1.6 280 260 598 700 416
S_DAK : 12.0 12.0 175 (175 1,820 2,100 2,100
UTAH : 6.5 6.6 255 . 265 1,728 1,658 1,749
VT : 12 +1 235-240 63. | a7 24
WASH : 126.0 116,0 505 500 56,925 63,630 58,000
WIS : 63.5 58.0 380 355 21,350 24,130 20,590
WYO 3 1.0 2.1 245. 255 550 245 536
TOTAL : 1,147.0 1,027.5 308 - 299 313,088 353,638 307,548
us : 1,961.1 1,216.0 299 290 362,612 407,109 382,274

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ COMBINED WITH “FALL*.
3/ INCLUDES AREAS PREVIOUSLY CLASSIFIED AS "SUMMERTM.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 AW12 NASS, USDA


PEANUTS FOR NUTS

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION 1/

STATE IND IND
1985 1985 : 1986 1984 1985 1986
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

ALA : 200.0 218.0 2,950 2,000 648,550 590,000 436,000
FLA : 72.0 83.0 3,000 2,700 246,400 216,000 224,100
GA : 593.0 650.0 3,240 2,150 2,160,000 1,921,320 1,397,500
N MEX 2/ 12.4 12.0 2,580 2,500 32,190. 31,992 30,000
NC : 154.0 143.0 2,935 3,050 449,500 451,990 436,150
OKLA : 83.0 95.0 2,060 2,200 189,000 170,980 209,000
SC 3 12.0 12.0 2,850 2,000 39,150 34,200 24,000
TEX : 245.0 220.0 1,725 1,900 371,295 422,625 418,000
vA : 96.0 88.0 2,955 3,100 269,660 283,680 272,800
us : 1,467.4 1,521.0 2,810- 2,267 4,405,745 4,122,787 3,447,550

1/ ESTIMATES COMPRISED OF QUOTA AND NON-QUOTA PEANUTS.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AREA PLANTED, POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP
AND H

WINTER 1/ : ALL
CALIF 3 5.4 CALIF 21.7 18.0
FLA : 7.8 COLO : 56.5 52.5
: CONN ; 1.4 1.0
TOTAL : 13.2 IDAHO-10 SW CO : 30.0 17.0
: -OTHER CO : 325.0 293.0
SPRING 1/ IND 3/ : 2.8 4.9
ALA 5.4 MAINE : 100.0 85.0
ARIZ 5.8 MASS : 3.3 2.9
CALIF 30.5 MICH H 46.0 42.0
FLA-HASTINGS 26.5 MINN 2 78.5 72.0
-OTHER 1.4 MONT 7.9 7.8
LA +7 NEBR 8.5 7.7
NC 15.0 NEV 9.0 8.0
TEX 6.7 N Y-LONG IS : 13.0 9.0
-UPSTATE : 26.0 24.0
TOTAL 92.0 N DAK : 145.0 128.0
OHIO 3/ 9.5 10.2
SUMMER 1/ OREG-MALHEUR 2 11.0 7.0
ALA 8.0 -OTHER CO: 51.0 45.0
CALIF 7.5 PA 2 22.5 22.0
COLO 7.6 RI 2.5 1.6
DEL 6.5 S_OAK 14.0 13.0
ILL 3.2 UTAH 6.6 6.6
IND 2.1 vT 2 2)
IOWA 1.6 WASH 127.0 117.0
MD 1.6 WIS 65.0 59.0
MICH 14.0 wyo 2.4 2.2
MINN 6.7 :
NEBR 2.6 TOTAL : 1,186.3 1,055.9
NJ 9.0 3
N MEX 10.5 s + 1,409.1 1,247.4
NC 2.5 :
OHIO 1.2
TENN 2.5
TEX 13.5
VA 17.0
TOTAL 117.6

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ COMBINED WITH "FALL".
3/ INCLUDES AREAS PREVIOUSLY CLASSIFIED AS "SUMMER".

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-11 NASS, USDA






CORN FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

: : : z 3
2 1985 : 1986 : 1984 : 1985 + 1986

BUSHELS

1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 325 300 75.0 55.0 25,025 24,375 16,500
ARIZ 1/ 3 21 17 105.0 115.0 3,250 2,205 1,955
ARK / 73 85 108.0 112.0 4,655 7,884 9,520
CALIF 320 270 145.0 148.0 51,000 46,400 39,960
COLO 745 675 139.0 140.0 91,120 103,555 94,500
CONN 2/

DEL W75 170 109.0 68.0 16,950 19,075 11,560
FLA 1/ 190 180 65.0 60.0 13,650 12,350 10,800
GA 975 730 84.0 60.0 80,770 81,900 43,800
IDAHO 1/ 80 55 125.0 130.0 8,850 10,000 7,150
TLL 11,370 10,300 135.0 138.0 1,247,160 1,534,950 1,421,400
IND 6,150 5,850 123.0 124.0 705,510 756,450 725,400
lOWA 13,550 12,000 126.0 135.0 1,444,800 1,707,300 1,620,000
KANS 1,080 1,250 130.0 135.0 119,375 140,400 168,750
KY 1,560 1,570 102.0 88.0 146,000 159,120 138,160
LA 1/ 205 430 114.0 120.0 9,430 23,370 51,600
MAINE 2/

MD 640 610 110.0 68.0 69,620 70,400 41,480
MASS 2/

MICH 2,730 2,400 105.0 102.0 220,080 286,650 244,800
MINN 6,300 5,700 115.0 120.0 689,080 724,500 684,000
MiSs 1/ 115 170 68.0 78.0 4,900 7,820 13,260
MO 2,480 2,380 110.0 115.0 154,400 272,800 273,700
MONT 1/ 11 10 95.0 105.0 1,380 1,045 1,050
NEBR / 7,450 6,850 128.0 130.0 806,200 953,600 890,500
NH 2

NJ V/ 114 105 110.0 95.0 11,663 12,540 9,975
N MEX 1/ 65 50 155.0 155.0 9,450 10,075 7,750
NY 720 640 95.0 98.0 60,970 68,400 62,720
NC 1,625 1,360 79.0 67.0 145,800 128,375 91,120
N DAK 560 600 72.0 85.0 41,580 40,320 51,000
OHIO 4,030 3,700 127.0 128.0 460,200 511,810 473,600
OKLA 1/ 58 50 106.0 110.0 5,250 6,148 5,500
OREG 1/ 40 35 165.0 175.0 6,678 6,600 6,125
PA / 1,380 1,340 110.0 104.0 148,500 151,800 139,360
RI 2

sc 520 480 88.0 43.0 34,866 45,760 20,640
S$ DAK 3,000 2,700 84.0 86.0 186,260 252,000 232,200
TENN 810 770 98.0 76.0 65,550 79,380 58,520
TEX 1,490 1,250 105.0 110.0 144,150 156,450 137,500
UTAH 1/ 16 16 115.0 115.0 1,888 1,840 1,840
VT 2/

VA 550 510 99.0 50.0 56,160 54,450 25,500
WASH 1/ 135 120 160.0 150.0 23,250 21,600 18,000
WVA 1/ 73 75 105.0 95.0 8,100 7,665 7,125
WIS 3,350 3,100 107.0 116.0 344,500 358,450 359,600
Wyo / 53 48 98.0 97.0 6,000 5,194 4,656
us 75,134 68,951 118.0 119.3 7,674,020 8,865,006 8,222,576

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-8 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

NOV 1, 1986 LAST CHART

THIS SEASON

TOO WET

SLSR + Y/ZABNORMALLY
‘MOIST
sea, .apvcicama 1 miagmusse tmx smar ome,
See: gAPeia MELE 1m REASON Ta PESTS etrncravo a
Sersor cee ase Tras ee Se

IIMTTATIONS...uAY NOT BE APPLICABLE TO GERMINATING AND SEALLOW
ROOTED CROPS WHICH ARK UNABLE TO EXTRACT THR DELP OR SUBSOTL MOISTURE)
IFROW 4 5~POOT PROFIL, OR POR COOL SEASON CROPS GROWING WHEN TEMP! _
[TURES aRS AVERAGING BELOW ABOCT $5°7. IT IS NOT GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF
[TER LONG TERM (MOTHS, TEARS) DROUGHT OR WET SPELLS WHICH RE DEPICTED

[br ree pRovGHr SEVERITY INDEX.

SLIGHTLY
ORY

ACAD INT ABIOATIMNL YEATIER FACILITY Boted on praiminary reports

I

DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

NOV 1, 1986 LAST CHART
THIS SEASON

A
See
FE
MOIST
MOISTSMODERATE TREME
Se AE

; MODERATE
a7
=

a
MOIST:
DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PALMER): DEPICTS PRO-

JLONGED (MONTHS, YEARS) ABNORWAL DRYNESS OR WETNESS sexe
RESPONDS SLOWLY; CHANGES LITTLE FROM MEEK TO WEEK

JAND REFLECTS LONG TERM MOISTURE HUNOFF, RECHARGE,
JAHD DEEP PERCOLATION, AS WELL AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

USES. . .APPLICABLE IN MEASURING DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF PROLONGED
DRYNESS OR WETNESS ON WATER SENSETIVE ECONOMIES ;DESIGNATING DIS-

ASTER AREAS OF DROUGHT OR WETNESS ; AND REFLECTING THE GENERAL, LONG
ERM STATUS OF WATER SUPPLIES IN AQUIFERS, RESERVOIRS, AND STREAMS |

JLIMrTATIONS...18 NOT GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SHORT TERM (FEW WEEKS)
JSTATUS OF DROUGHT OR WETNESS SUCH AS FREQUENTLY AFFECTS CROPS AND
FIPLD OPERATIONS (THIS IS INDICATED BY THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX).

SEVERE
MODERATE

seasok nT gare TaN Mean FACILITY ered on prafiminery reports

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 B-1 NASS, USDA


Tennessee burley was 40 percent stripped on November 2, down 5 percent
from both a year ago and the 5-year average. Sales are scheduled to begin
November 24,

The final South Carolina auction market closed October 16. Average grade
prices were lower this year reflecting lower support prices but grower
assessment was only 2 1/2 cents per pound compared with 25 cents in 1985.

SUGARBEETS: Production of sugarbeets is forecast at 24.8 million tons (22.5

million metric tons), a decrease of 1 percent from the October 1
estimate but an increase of 9 percent from 1985. This year's larger crop is
mainly the result of increased acreage, though yields are also up from 1985.
Harvested area is expected to total 1.19 million acres (481 thousand
hectares), 8 percent more than in 1985. An average yield of 20.8 tons per
acre is expected compared with 20.5 tons a year ago. .

In the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota, harvest was com-
pleted in record time, with excellent harvest weather. .

Harvest continues in California with mild, open weather.

Idaho harvest is ahead of normal and nearly complete. Good yields were
reported in most areas with no major disease or weather problems,

Michigan harvest was about two-thirds complete on November 1. A total of
25.0 thousand additional acres have been abandoned since October 1 ‘due to
rotting, induced by September floods. Sucrose content has been slightly below
normal.

Nebraska sugarbeet harvest is nearly complete. Yields and sugar content
are both above average.

In Montana, a mild and dry October enhanced yield and sugar content.
Harvest was virtually complete by month's end.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for seed and sugar is forecast at 30.3 mil-

lion tons (27.4 million metric tons), unchanged from the October 1
forecast but 7 percent above last year. The increase from a year ago reflects
both increased acreage and higher yields. Area for harvest, at 801 thousand
acres (324 thousand hectares), is up 4 percent from 1985. The average expected
yield of 37.8 tons per acre compares with 36.6 tons in 1985.

In Florida, cutting began about the first of November. It is expected. to
be in full swing by mid-month.

In Hawaii, heavy rain early in October helped replenish reservoirs.
Sunny, humid weather in mid-month accelerated crop development.

Louisiana harvest was 29 percent complete as of November 2. This compares
with 16 percent a year ago and the average of 23 percent.

Harvest began in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas about mid-October. Early
yields and quality look good.

PAPAYAS: Hawaii fresh papaya production is forecast at 4.50 million pounds

(2040 metric tons) in November. Increases to 5.80 and 5.70 million
pounds (2630 and 2590 metric tons) are anticipated for December and January,
respectively. February's output at 4.70 million pounds (2130 metric tons), is
expected to drop 18 percent from January's production.

Fresh utilization during October is estimated at 5.83 million pounds (2640
metric tons), 85 percent more than September and 27 percent more than October
last year. Total crop area for October of 4050 acres (1640 hectares) increased
2 percent from September and is 15 percent above October last year. Area
harvested for October increased 4 percent from September to 2475 acres (1000
hectares), 3 percent more than October last year.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 B-7 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

1,000 ACRES

CORN 83,348 76,646 75,134 68,951
SORGHUM 18,285 14,973 16,672 13,494
RICE 2,522.0 2,348.0 2,502.0 2,333.0
SOYBEANS 63,130 61,835 61,584 59,513
PEANUTS : 1,490.4 1,505.0 1,467.4 1,521.0
ALL COTTON 10,684.6 9,590.6 10,229.0 8,680.4

UPLAND 10,600.6 9,489.6 10,145.4 8,573.9

AMER-PIMA 84.0 101.0 83.6 106.5
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 1,575.9 1,701.0 1,486.4 1,470.5
POTATOES : :

FALL 3 1,186.3 1,055.9 1,147.0 1,027.5

TOTAL 3 1,409.1 1,247.4 1,361.1 1,216.0
TOBACCO Hy 688.0 602.3
SUGARBEETS 1,324.5 1,238.0 1,102.5 1,188.4
SUGARCANE FOR

SUGAR AND SEED 770.0 801.4

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED

INOICATED
1986 1/

1,000 ACRES

OATS 14,708 8,177 6,987
BARLEY 13,033 11,603 11,985
ALL WHEAT 71,834 64,734 . “60,483
WINTER 53,930 47,953 43,115
DURUM 2,869 3,094 2,805
OTHER SPRING 15,035 13,687 14,563
RYE 2,364 717 660
FLAXSEED 695 584 669
SUNFLOWER 1,895 2,844 1,844
ALL HAY 60,553 60,902
ALFALFA 25,673 26,185
ALL OTHER 34,880 34,717
ORY EDIBLE PEAS 2 188.0 187.0
AUSTRIAN WINTER
PEAS 2/ 32.0 31.5
LENTILS 2/ 170.0 167.0
POTATOES
WINTER 12.5 3.2 12.3
SPRING 76.7 7.0 75.6
SUMMER 3.9
SWEETPOTATOES
HOPS

Vv IM
2/ ESTIMATES REINSTATED IN 1986.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-4 NASS, USDA


FILBERTS

OREG : 13,200 24,300 15,300
WASH Ws 200 300 300 -
us t 13,400 24,600 15,600

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PRUNES

CALIF (DRIED BASIS) : 148,000 139,000 95,000

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

MONTH : TOTAL IN CROP HARVESTED : :
H 1985 : 1986 : FORECAST

: : 1986-87
1,000 POUNDS

SEP 3,555 3,970 2,345 2,380 3,722 3,150

oct 3,515 4,050 2,410 2,475 4,594 5,825

NOV 3,615 2,385 3,383 4,500

DEC 3,690 2,395 3,358 5,800

JAN 3,810 2,435 3,760. 5,700

FEB 3,890 2,480 3,830 4,700

CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-OCT 42,509 40,880

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NOVEMBER 1986 A-15 NASS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/

AVERAGE AVERAGE
1975-84 : 1975-84
PERCENT
90 72 72
87 84 94
76 83 19
76 94 100
84 81 88
75 80 61
67 68 85
83 74 86
65 88 92
89 78 82
19 72 75
89 100 102
63 73 58
70 55 94
76 85 81
62 77 89
83 90 89
85 85 90
78 83 63
83 69 76
77 7 66
80 84 77
84 52 93

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVE POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64; SEVERE
DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-17 NASS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF NOVEMBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield
surveys taken about November 1. The yield surveys include matled reports from
farmers for ail crops and actual field observations and measurements for corn,
soybeans, and cotton. Farmers provided appraisals of crop conditions and
probable yield information for crops on their farms and for their localities.
bjective yield surveys provided small plot observations, counts, and
measurements in a probability sample. These surveys are subject to sampling
and non-sampling errors that are common to all surveys. More importantly, the
production forecasts are subject to change due to future weather effects and
other factors that cannot be measured currently but directly affect final
production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report, the “Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by expressing
the deviations between the November 1 production forecasts and the final
estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
Percentage deviations for the 1966-85 twenty-year period; the square root of
this average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current
forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.

For example, the “Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for
grain production forecast is 2.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out
of 3 that the current production forecast of 8,223 million bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 2.6 percent or approximate]
214 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence Teveld
that the difference will not exceed 4.5 percent or approximately 370 million
bushels.

Also shown in the table fs a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the November 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using
corn again as an example, changes between the November 1 forecast and the
final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 173 million bushels,
ranging from 21 million to 378 million bushels. The November 1? forecast has
been below the final estimate 9 times and above 1 time. This does not imply
that the November 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or
overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts
have been below or above the final estimates is about equally distributed.

RELIABILITY OF NOVEMBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR 10-YEAR RECORD OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
AND FINAL ESTIMATE

CROP AND bt REVEL t deen nnn en en ene eee ee eeeee
UNIT :PERCEN QUANTITY NO. OF YEARS
: BELOW ABOVE
: AVG : SMALL: LARGE:FINAL :FINAL
rr anna, MIL MIL MIL
FEED GRAINS 1/ MT : 5 0 10 9 1
CORN FOR GRAIN BU : 173 21 378 9 1
SORGHUM FOR H
GRAIN BU: 18 0 53 7 3
RICE CWT: 3 0 a 6 4
SOYBEANS FOR : .
BEANS BU 2. <1 102 59 23 109 6 4
COTTON BALE 2/ 319 18670 267 15 689 6 4

1/ CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES,

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-3 NASS, USDA


SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at 2.01 billion bushels (54.7 million metric

tons), up 1 percent from October 1 but 4 percent below last year.
Yield, at 33.8 bushels per acre, is up 0.5 of a bushel from October 1. If
realized, this will be the second highest yield of record, slightly behind
last year's 34.1 bushels per acre.

Yield increases from October 1 were recorded in 7 States. Alabama, Iowa,
and Nebraska recorded yield increases of 2 bushels per acre while Arkansas,
Kansas, Ohio, and Tennessee yields rose 1 bushel. Indiana's yield declined 1
bushel while Louisiana's yield was 2 bushels Tower than the October 1 forecast.

Flooding reduced the harvested area in 3 States (Arkansas, Missouri, and
Michigan) 260 thousand acres from the October 1 forecast. Missouri lost 200
thousand acres and Arkansas lost 50 thousand acres from the late September and
early October rains. Michigan reduced its harvested area 10 thousand acres
because of wet conditions in low lying fields.

Quality of the crop remains generally good despite excessive moisture
problems. Some areas have reported problems with mold, discoloration, rot,
sprouting, and lodging but the overall condition remains fair to good.

As of November 2, 68 percent of the crop was harvested, 4 points better
than last year and the same as the 5-year average. The western soybean
production area generally lagged behind normal harvest progress because of
persistent wet conditions. Kansas was 20 points behind the average, Missouri
14 points behind, and South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska were 8, 7, and 5 points
behind the average, respectively. With only 35 percent harvested--half of
what is normally harvested by this time--Michigan has had the most difficult
time harvesting their crop.

COTTON: All cotton production is forecast at 9.87 million bales, a decline of

1 percent from October 1 and 26 percent below the 1985 crop. The
Upland production forecast is 9.69 million bales and American Pima production
is expected to total 188 thousand bales. Total area for harvest for’ all
cotton is estimated at 8.68 million acres (3.51 million hectares), down 15
percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 546 pounds per
harvested acre, down 84 pounds per acre from 1985.

In Texas and Oklahoma, Upland production is forecast at 2.96 million bales,
down 29 percent from last year and 7 percent below the October 1 forecast.
Heavy rains continue to delay harvest, with some reduction in quality of the
crop. Area for harvest in Texas has been reduced 200 thousand acres since
October 1 due primarily to excessive water damage.

Producers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
and Tennessee) expect to harvest 3.06 million bales, 18 percent below last
year but 3 percent above the October 1 forecast. Harvest was nearing
completion in some areas and is well ahead of last year.

Cotton production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New
Mexico) is expected to total 2.95 million bales of Upland cotton, down 28
percent from last year and virtually unchanged from October 1. Bol] rot and
pest problems have held yields below last year.

Producers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina,
and South Carolina), expect to harvest 685 thousand bales, down 43 percent
from last year's production but up 1 percent from October 1. Harvest has been
behind last year in South Carolina and Georgia, but ahead in Alabama and North
arolina.

Bureau of the Census reports 5,290,662 running bales ginned prior to
November 1 compared with 6,245,836 to the same date last year and 4,320,592
bales in 1984,

COTTONSEED: Production of cottonseed for 1986, based on a three year average

int-seed ratio, is forecast at 3.90 million tons (3.54 million
metric tons), 26 percent below the 1985 production of 5.28 million tons (4.79
million metric tons).

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 B-5 NASS, USDA


INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1976-86 (1977=100)

YEAR : 2 : HAY : : : :
sALL T/: FEED : AND FOOD : SUGAR : COTTON : TOBACCO :OIL CROPS
H : GRAINS : FORAGE : GRAINS : CROPS : : 3
1976 : 92 96 94 107 12 74 112 74
1977 : 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1978 : 102 108 106 93 101 76 106 105
1979 : 113 116 108 108 94 102 80 129
1980 : 101 97 98 121 97 79 93 99
1981 217 121 106 144 107 109 108 114
1982 : 117 122 109 138 96 85 104 12]
1983 : 88 67 100 W7 93 55 75 91
1984 : 111 116 107 129 95 91 90 106
1985 : 116 133 106 121 97 93 79 117
1986 : 108 122 Ww 106 105 69 62 110

1/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS
OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with
related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Agricultural Statistics Board which consists of
commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

APPROVED: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD:
Charles E. Caudill, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

Rich D. Allen, John D. Witzig,
Robert L. Addison, David J. Aune,
James E. Brewster, Arvin R. Budge,
Z x William N. Dowdy, S. Radley Edwards,|
Ape OA Cmecen. Robert L. Griffith, Craig M. Hayes,
C. Douglas Hicks, Carol C. House,
Clifton D. James, Doyle C. Johnson,
Richard C. Max, Joyce B. McIntyre,
Gary A. Nelson, Ronald R. Radenz,
Darwin E. Ransom, Carroll G. Rock,

Vaughn L. Siegenthaler, Larry E. Snipes,
Carrol D. Spencer.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-2 NASS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: The pasture and range feed condition on

November 1 for the 48 contiguous States was
85 percent, 6 points above November 1, 1985 and 11 points above the 1975-84
average for the date. Conditions {improved during October in 24 States,
declined in 14 States and were unchanged in 10 States.

In the eastern and southern States from Delaware to Alabama, the pasture
conditions are in the very poor range. All of the remaining States are in
either the “poor to fair” or “good to excetlent" range, with the majority in
the “good to excellent" range. Rain was received in many areas throughout the
country during the month and was beneficial for the pastures and ranges. Over-
all, the pastures and ranges are going into the winter in very good condition.

PRUNES: California's prune production (dried basis) is forecast at 95.0 thou-

sand tons (86.2 thousand metric tons), unchanged from the October 1
forecast but 32 percent less than the 1985 crop. Harvest is complete, with
fruit being of excellent quality and high sugar content.

FILBERTS: The forecast of production in Oregon and Washington is 15.6 thousand
tons (14.2 thousand metric tons), 10 percent Tess than the October 1
forecast and 37 percent below the record high crop harvested last year.

Harvest was virtually complete as of November 1. Crop yields were lower
than anticipated earlier this year. Mold problems were common in many areas,
as well as a higher percentage of worm problems and blanks. Some industry
Contacts indicate growers may have left as much as 10 percent of the crop in
the orchard due to quality and harvest problems. Although kernel sizes are
reportedly larger, the volume of jumbo nuts is less than normal.

GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects for the 1986-87 season, excluding California's "Other

Areas" grapefruit, indicate a crop of 58.0 million boxes (2.18
million metric tons), 9 percent more than Jast season and 14 percent above the
1984-85 utilized crop. The California “Other Areas" grapefruit production
which will be forecast as of April 1, 1987, accounted for 4.80 million boxes,
harvested last season and 5.00 million boxes in 1984-85.

The Texas crop is forecast at 2.10 million boxes compared with 220 thousand
boxes harvested last season. The Arizona crop forecast is 2.10 million boxes,
down 12 percent from last season and 30 percent below 1984-85 utilized
production.

No forecast is made on November 1 for the Florida grapefruit crop;
however, the October 1 estimate of 50.0 million boxes is carried forward in
this report.

LEMONS: The Arizona-California lemon crop (tree crop available for harvest)

totals 24.7 million boxes (852 thousand metric tons), 35 percent more
than the crop harvested during the 1985-86 season but 4 percent below the
1984-85 utilized production. In California, the crop is expected to total
19.0 million boxes, unchanged from October 1, 26 percent higher than last
season but 4 percent below 1984-85.

In Arizona, a tree crop of 5.70 million boxes is expected, 75 percent
higher than the crop utilized last season but 5 percent lower than utilized
production in 1984-85.

TANGERINES: The U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 4.25 million boxes (158 thou-

sand metric tons), 16 percent more than last season and 24 percent
more than 1984-85. The California crop is forecast at 1.90 million boxes and
the Arizona crop forecast totals 850 thousand boxes. No forecast is made on
November 1 for the Florida tangerine crop. The October 1 estimate of 1.50
million boxes is carried forward in this report.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Florida's citrus belt was hot and dry during most of October.

Through the last week of the month there was extensive irri-
gating to help prevent leaf wilt and fruit softening. There was widespread
rain and thundershowers on October 27th through the 30th, which greatly helped
to improve surface moisture conditions. There was very little new foliage
growth this month due to the generally dry conditions. Harvest of white and
colored grapefruit accelerated through all of October. Also, there were
increasing quantities of Robinson tangerines, Nova tangelos, Hamlin oranges,
Navel oranges, and K-early citrus fruit. Caretakers have been very active
during October clean cultivating for the winter season. There have been some
spot sprays for rust mites, where the fruit is destined for fresh usage.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 B-8 NASS, USDA


’ AREA ‘HARVESTED

t

COTTON

cROP Jere ene n ne ee wenn nnn ne een nnn ene ene ennes pene nce nnn nn nnnne ene
AND t : IND ¢ + IND 3 ' : IND
STATE : 1985: 1986 : 1985: 1986: 1984; 1985: 1986
: 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 2/
UPLAND
ALA : 329.0 347.0 795 498 447.0 545.0 360.0
ARIZ : 359.0 259.0 1,241 1,279 1,097.0 928.0 690.0
ARK : 440.0 440.0 767 655 612.0 703.0 600.0
CALIF 9: 1,320.0 1,010.0 1,132 1,086 2,913.0 3,114.0 2,200.0
FLA 3/3 22.5 2 693 670 30.0 32.5 30.0
GA : 245.0 725 429 281.0 370.0 170.0
KANS 3/3 16 320 576 23 4 1.2
LA : 630.0 565 5e9 1,056.0 742.0 700.0
Miss 1 1,040.0 164 591 1,650.0 1,655.0 t,200.0
10 : 150.0 653 570 187.0 204.0 190.0
N MEX =: 54.0 631 686 87.0 71.0 60.0
NC : 87.0 646 486 120.0 117.0 80.0
OKLA t 360.0 380 357 183.0 285.0 260.0
sc : 122.0 708 319 170.0 180.0 75.0
TENN : 335.0 600 564 337.0 419.0 370.0
TEX 1 4,650.0 404 350 3,680.0 3,910.0 2,700.0
VA B/ is 1.3 1.4 443 ait 1a 1. 1.2
u's + 10,145.4 8,573.9. 628 542) 12,651.44 13,277.1 9,687.4
AMER-PIMA :
ARIZ ' 56.3 72.5 927 907 88.1 108.7 137.0
NMEX 19 10.0 687 696 12.4 11.3 14.5
TEX t 19.4 24.0 868 720 29.9 35.1 36.0
ats : 83.6 106.5 891 845 130.4 155.1 187.5
LL
ALAS : 329.0 347.0 795 498 447.0 545.0 360.0
ARIZ. : 415.3 331.5 1,198 1,197 1,185.1 1,036.7 827.0
ARK : 440.0 440.0 167 655 612.0 703.0 600.0
CALIF 1,320.0 1,010.0 1,132 1,046 2,915.0 3,114.0 2,200.0
FLA 3/5 22.5 21.5 693 670 30.0 32.5 30.0
6A : 245.0 190.0 725 429 281.0 370.0 170.0
KANS 3/3 6 1.0 320 376 : 4 1.2
t 565 589 1,056.0 742.0 700.0
t 764 591 1,650.0 1,653.0 1,200.0
' 653 570 187.0 204.0 190.0
: 638 688 99.4 82.3 74.5
i 646 486 120.0 117.0 80.0
: 380 357 183.0 285.0 260.0
t 708 319 170.0 180.0 75.0
: 600 564 337.0 419.0 370.0
' 406 353 3,709.9 3,945.1 2,736.0
: 443 411 1.1 1.2 1.2
630 546 12,981.8 13,432.2 9,874.9
1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED.
2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES. |
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

PRODUCTION
ros “quo 1986
comers y000 TONS SSSC=“‘;<;<CT
5,149 5,279 3,897

CROP PRODUCTION,
NOVEMBER 1986

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA



CITRUS FRUIT 1/

PRODUCTION
TON EQUIVALENT

CROP BOXES

ED INDICATED

1,000 UNITS 2/
ORANGES, EARLY MID:
& NAVEL 3/4]:

ARIZ : 650 600 700 25
CALIE + 26,200 33,300 40,000 982
FLA : 55,000 64,200 72,000 2,475
TEX 5/t Q 200 500 @
us : 81,850 98,300 113,200 3,482
ORANGES, VALENCIA 4/:
Zz : 1,800 1,700 1,500 68 64 56
CALIF : 26,200 21,500 29,000 983 807 1,088
FLA : 48,900 54,800 57,000 2,201 2,466 2,565
TEX S/t 0 110 350 0 5 15
us : 76,900 78,110 87,850 3,252 3,342 3,724
ALL ORANGES Ale
ARIZ : 2,450 2,300 2,200 93 87 82
CALIF : 52,400 54,800 69,000 1,965 2,056 2,588
FLA + 193,900 119,900 129,000 4,676 $5,355 5,805
TEX S/t ° 310 850 0 14 36
us + 158,750 176,410 201,050 6,734 7,512 8,511
TEMPLES :
FLA Af: 3,250 2,950 3,600 146 133 162
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE =:
SEEDLESS :
FLA 4/: 24,800 25,600 +=. 27,000 1,054 1,088 1,148
GRAPEFRUIT, COLORED:
SEEDLESS t
FLA 4/: 16,300 18,000 19, 500 693 765 829
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
FLA : 2,900 3,150 3,500 125 134 149
ALL GRAPEFRUIT :
ARIZ + 3,000 2,400 2,100 96 7 67
CALIF 6/:
DESERT : 3,800 3,600 3,800 121 5 122
OTHER AREAS: 5,000 4,800 168 161
TOTAL : 8,800 8,400 289 276
FLA 4/: 44,000 = 46,750 50,000 1,870 1,987 2,126
TEX S/t ° 220 2,100 0 9 84
us : 55,800 57,770 2,255 2,349
TANGERINES 2
ARIZ : 700 700 850 26 26 32
CALIF : 1,680 1,800 1,900 63 68 a
FLA al: 1,050 1,150 1,500 50 55 nN
us 3,430 3,650 4,250 139 149 174
LEMONS :
ARIZ : 6,000 3,250 5,700 228 123 217
CALIF + 19,800 15,100 19,000 752 574 722
us : 25,800 18,350 24,700 980 697 939
TANGELOS :

FLA

2,950

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOON OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST {$ COMPLETED.

2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ-75,FLA-90,
TEX~85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF
OTHER-67, FLA-85, TEX-80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS &
TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95.

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES !N CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA. EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN

TEXAS.
4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
5/ DUE TO THE SEVERE FREEZE OF DECEMBER 1983, NO COMMERCIAL
SUPPLIES WERE HARVESTED FOR THE 1964-85 TEXAS CITRUS CROPS.
6/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT "OTHER AREAS"
WILL BE AS OF APR 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NOVEMBER 1986 A-16 NASS, USDA