Cr Pr 2-2 (3-04)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released March 10, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down 1 Percent from February

The U.S. all orange March forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.2 million tons, down 1 percent from the

February 1 forecast but 14 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is

unchanged at 246 million boxes (11.1 million tons) but 21 percent above the previous season. Early and

midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), down 1 percent from last

month but 13 percent above the previous season. The harvest of the early and midseason varieties is nearly

complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is 119 million boxes (5.36 million tons), up 1 percent from the February

forecast and 31 percent above last season's final utilization. Fruit size continues to be above average but not as

large as last season. Loss from droppage is at a record low. 

California's all orange forecast is 54.0 million boxes (2.03 million tons), down 7 percent from the January

forecast and 13 percent below last season. Valencia oranges are forecast at 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons)

down 21 percent from the January forecast and 29 percent below last season's final utilization. Picking of

Valencia oranges is underway in some of the southern growing regions. Overall, sizing appears to be up from

the previous year but fruit are not as abundant on the trees. Rapid decreases in Valencia acreage continue in

most parts of the State, as growers abandon their orchards or replace their Valencias with more profitable fruit

or vegetable crops. California conducted an objective measurement survey and a grower survey for the March 1

forecast. Arizona and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the previous forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ)) yield projection is unchanged at 1.53 gallons per box at

42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is projected at 1.45 gallons per box, down from 1.47 in

February. The Valencia portion was raised to 1.62 gallons per box from 1.60. All projections of yield assume

that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on March 10, 2004.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2002-2003

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

442.0

21.3

465.0

43.6

971.9

19.0

1.4

30.0

0.9

51.3

461.0

22.7

495.0

44.5

1,023.2

422.0

20.5

450.0

42.4

934.9

20.0

1.5

40.0

1.4

62.9

442.0

22.0

490.0

43.8

997.8

38.3

99.0

28.3

39.1

34.9

38.1

35.5

28.3

30.0

32.2

38.3

95.1

28.3

38.9

34.7

39.7

99.2

27.0

37.0

34.8

40.6

37.6

27.0

35.0

31.7

39.7

95.0

27.0

36.9

34.6

16,929

2,109

13,160

1,705

33,903

724

50

849

27

1,650

17,653

2,159

14,009

1,732

35,553

16,753

2,034

12,150

1,569

32,506

812

56

1,080

49

1,997

17,565

2,090

13,230

1,618

34,503

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the 2003 Crop Production Summary.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2003 2004

2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jan

Feb

2,080

2,255

2,210

2,200

1,505

1,510

1,345

1,345

3,935

3,735

3,635

2,815

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted March 1, 2004 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL 7

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

270

32,000

128,000

1,530

161,800

250

19,500

102,000

210

121,960

520

51,500

230,000

1,740

283,760

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

5,900

46,700

5,900

58,660

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

18,300

21,100

2,150

200

41,000

112,000

1,350

154,550

270

21,000

91,000

220

112,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,500

5,500

8,430

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

220

39,000

127,000

1,300

167,520

250

15,000

119,000

230

134,480

470

54,000

246,000

1,530

302,000

1,400

16,000

24,000

100

5,200

40,000

5,300

50,600

600

2,500

5,900

9,000

3,200

23,000

26,200

1,000

10

1,200

5,760

65

7,035

9

731

4,590

9

5,339

19

1,931

10,350

74

12,374

70

803

1,182

5

198

1,985

236

2,424

23

83

314

420

106

695

801

97

8

1,538

5,040

57

6,643

10

788

4,095

9

4,902

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

956

4

188

1,645

226

2,063

16

94

261

371

114

912

1,026

106

8

1,463

5,715

55

7,241

9

563

5,355

10

5,937

17

2,026

11,070

65

13,178

63

680

1,020

3

174

1,700

212

2,089

23

94

280

397

122

874

996

45

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos &

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors. 7 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo,

Sunburst, and Honey varieties only.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,299.0

78,736.0

4,601.0

730.0

3,022.0

1,368.0

9,420.0

61,700.0

44,945.0

2,915.0

13,840.0

1,082.0

595.0

110.0

1,344.0

1.3

221.0

73,404.0

2,344.0

13,483.1

13,304.0

179.1

1,365.4

21.1

1,406.1

337.5

246.0

1,275.0

14.6

88.6

64.2

1,107.6

95.6

43,464.0

14.2

4,688.0

71,139.0

6,528.0

63,342.0

23,578.0

39,764.0

2,224.0

620.0

2,997.0

339.0

7,798.0

343.0

52,839.0

36,541.0

2,869.0

13,429.0

1,068.0

583.0

107.0

1,312.0

1.2

212.0

72,321.0

2,197.0

12,058.0

11,880.0

178.0

1,347.9

997.8

416.2

15.6

1,346.9

328.5

237.0

5.9

0.2

28.7

78.2

1,250.3

14.3

84.7

59.3

1,092.0

15.8

92.4

0.4

14.0

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.9

142.2

16.2

2.48

3.24

2.03

65.0

18.5

6,645

27.3

52.7

10.4

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.7

1,416

17.9

723

3,159

949

1,286

33.4

1,213

725

719

1,157

22.7

34.6

1,997

1,115

1,672

1,584

1,030

1,470

37,500

1,903

89

367

282

288

324

377

113

172

274

276,087

10,113,887

105,864

157,123

76,307

80,816

144,649

11,450

199,157

9,254

411,237

3,552

2,336,526

1,707,069

96,637

532,820

1,512,250

6,694.0

10,426

77,372

4,144,150

1,139

272,555

2,417,565

2,665,226

18,224.0

17,795.0

429.0

30,605

34,503

831,204

174

22,515

5,202

2,442

673

8,700

6,000

54,565.1

6,924

459,045

4,027

24,433

19,199

411,386

1,778

15,921

5,000

3,840

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,424

1

801

12,374

97

420

70

8,525.4

90.0

19,500.0

7,339.0

103.0

45,900.0

2,574.9

868.5

172.0

15.7

1,090,000

19.5

172,900

303,000

282.0

1,393

2,063

1,026

11,545

106

371

59

9,014.6

97.9

22,000.0

6,477.9

118.0

43,000.0

2,523.1

923.1

176.0

16.9

1,020,000

35.0

262,200

116,000

325.0

1,239

2,089

996

13,178

45

397

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,144,450

31,863,670

1,861,980

295,420

1,222,970

553,620

3,812,180

24,969,370

18,188,790

1,179,670

5,600,910

437,870

240,790

44,520

543,900

530

89,440

29,705,860

948,590

5,456,480

5,384,000

72,480

552,560

8,540

569,030

136,580

99,550

515,980

5,910

35,860

25,980

448,230

38,690

17,589,450

5,750

1,897,190

28,789,240

2,641,820

25,633,870

9,541,780

16,092,090

900,030

250,910

1,212,860

137,190

3,155,770

138,810

21,383,410

14,787,780

1,161,060

5,434,580

432,210

235,930

43,300

530,950

490

85,790

29,267,590

889,100

4,879,750

4,807,720

72,030

545,480

403,800

168,440

6,310

545,080

132,940

95,910

2,390

60

11,600

31,650

505,980

5,790

34,280

24,000

441,920

6,390

37,390

170

5,670

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.17

8.92

36.35

5.56

7.25

4.56

2.33

1.03

7.45

1.71

3.31

23.21

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.67

1.59

1.12

0.81

3.54

1.06

1.44

2.25

1.36

0.81

0.81

1.30

50.90

77.52

2.24

1.25

1.87

1.77

1.15

1.65

42.03

2.13

0.10

41.15

31.56

32.33

36.29

42.23

0.13

19.31

30.74

6,011,080

256,904,560

96,038,210

142,539,590

69,224,550

73,315,040

2,099,570

259,680

9,033,610

235,060

10,445,900

3,222,320

63,589,820

46,458,800

2,630,030

14,500,980

685,950

6,072,690

264,830

35,100

1,879,750

520

123,630

65,795,340

1,208,930

3,967,810

3,874,400

93,400

27,764,390

31,300,600

377,030

7,890

1,021,260

235,960

110,770

30,530

3,950

2,720

24,750

3,140

20,821,930

182,660

1,108,260

870,850

18,660,160

810

722,160

2,270

174,180

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2004 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2002 2003 2004

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,199,020

910

726,650

11,225,500

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,867,060

81,680

8,850

6,657,830

93,440

20,820

1,167,960

787,840

156,040

14,200

494,420

17,690

78,430

137,440

255,830

6,960

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

96,160

336,570

53,520

4,088,950

88,800

9,980

5,876,650

107,050

19,500

1,144,460

837,380

159,660

15,330

462,660

31,750

118,930

52,620

294,840

6,190

1,895,110

903,560

11,954,880

40,820

360,150

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 12 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 13 NASS, USDA

February Weather Summary

Important changes in the Nation’s weather pattern provided drought relief across the West, central and southern

Plains, and upper Midwest. In addition, heavy precipitation across the South ended a 2-month dry spell. 

Western storminess boosted high-elevation snow packs and improved spring and summer runoff prospects in the

Great Basin, Intermountain West, central and southern Rockies, and Southwest. Meanwhile, water-supply

prospects remained favorable in California and the Northwest. Farther east, most winter wheat areas on the

Plains benefited from increasingly wet weather, despite underlying subsoil moisture shortages. Some of the

heaviest precipitation fell on the southern Plains, where a late-month warming trend promoted some wheat and

pasture development. However, pockets of dryness persisted farther north, most notably across parts of

Montana and the central High Plains. Elsewhere, the northern and western Corn Belt received substantial rain

and snow, reducing long-term precipitation deficits. In contrast, mostly dry weather across the southern and

eastern Corn Belt helped to eliminate pockets of excessive wetness. Across the South, a steady procession of

storm systems aided pastures and winter grains but slowed pre-planting activities. Fieldwork delays were most

pronounced west of the Delta, where monthly precipitation totaled more than 200 percent of normal.

Below-normal temperatures dominated across the southern two-thirds of the Nation, excluding southern Florida,

where near-normal readings prevailed. Chilly conditions were most pronounced from the Great Basin to the

southern Rockies, where temperatures averaged as much as 8 degrees F below normal. In contrast, near- to

slightly above-normal temperatures were observed across the Nation’s northern tier. An exception was eastern

Montana, where record-high snow depths helped to hold readings as much as 6 degrees F below normal.

February Crop Summary

Heavy rains fell across the Mississippi Delta and Gulf Coast throughout February, with a short respite just after

midmonth, and temperatures were below normal. Similar conditions, but with slightly less precipitation,

prevailed in the Southeast with some snowfall in northern parts of the region. Producers were getting ready for

spring field preparation, but most fields were too muddy to begin fieldwork.

Across the northern and middle Atlantic Coast States and Ohio Valley, snow and ice early in the month gave

way to mostly dry conditions, with some light, scattered precipitation from the middle to the end of the month. 

Average temperatures were near normal. 

Except for snow early in the month, the western and central Corn Belts were mostly dry throughout the month

with only light, scattered precipitation. Temperatures were mostly below normal. In the northern Corn Belt,

snowfall was heavier and more frequent, despite above-normal temperatures for the month. Across most of the

Corn Belt, snow cover provided adequate protection for winter wheat during the coldest part of the month and

provided much-needed moisture as it melted later in the month.

In the northern and central Great Plains, conditions remained dry throughout the month, causing moisture stress

for winter wheat. Temperatures were well below normal early in the month but yielded to above-normal

temperatures after midmonth. Precipitation totals were higher in the southern Great Plains, with light rainfall

just before midmonth and moderate precipitation, including some snow, during the last week of the month. 

Temperatures were below normal in the first half of the month but near normal through month’s end. Planting

of corn, cotton, and sorghum had begun in southern parts of Texas, but wet conditions limited progress.

Precipitation was light but widespread across the northern and central Rocky Mountains, with some scattered

pockets of moderate rainfall. Below-normal temperatures dominated early in the month but gave way to slightly

above-normal temperatures toward month’s end. In the southern Rocky Mountains, dry conditions prevailed

throughout most of the month, although light to moderate rain fell in the region during the last week. Average

temperatures for the month were below normal.

Rainfall was heavy along the Pacific Coast, with above-normal temperatures in the extreme northern part of the

region but below-normal temperatures in the south. In California, wet conditions in many areas slowed citrus

harvest and vegetable planting and harvesting toward month’s end. Land preparation for summer crops was

active where conditions permitted. In the interior Pacific Northwest, light precipitation fell throughout most of

the month and temperatures were near normal. Conditions in the Great Basin and Southwest were mostly dry,

although some light precipitation fell during the last week. Temperatures averaged below normal for the month,

as weekly average temperatures were over 12 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for a large part of the region just

before midmonth. Emergence of small grains was complete in Arizona and heading had begun.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 14 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2003 is estimated at 34.5 million tons, down

slightly from last month and 3 percent below last year. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed

are estimated at 997,800 for the 2003 crop year, 2 percent less than last year’s harvested area. Yield is

estimated at 34.6 tons per acre, 0.1 ton below February’s forecast and the 2002 crop.

Estimates for all states, except Florida, are carried forward from February. In Florida, area harvested and to be

harvested for sugar and seed is estimated at 442,000 acres, fractionally above February but 4 percent below

2002. Florida’s yield, at 39.7 tons per acre, is 0.3 ton below the February forecast but 1.4 tons above 2002. 

Production in Florida is forecast at 17.6 million tons for the 2003 crop year, slightly below February and 2002. 

The crop suffered no damage from the mid-to-late February cold snap.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.82 million pounds for February, 23 percent lower

than January and 25 percent below February 2003. Area in crop totaled 2,200 acres, less than 1 percent below

last month and 2 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,345 acres, unchanged from January but

11 percent lower than a year ago. Weather conditions were variable during the month of February. Soil

moisture has been adequate in non-irrigated orchards. The majority of rainfall occurred during the last weeks of

the month.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2003-04 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.09 million tons, unchanged from the

February 1 forecast but 1 percent above the previous season. Florida’s grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at

40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 3 percent above last season’s final utilization. The white grapefruit

forecast is unchanged at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons) but 1 percent below last season. The size and drop

survey indications are final and unchanged from the February forecasts. However, results indicate that fruit size

is smaller and droppage is above average when compared to the October indications. The colored grapefruit

forecast, at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), remains unchanged but 7 percent above last season’s final

utilization. The growth pattern is similar to last season when sizes were above normal early in the season and

then leveled off. Droppage rates are above normal levels. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts

are carried forward from the previous forecasts.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2003-04 tangelo forecast, at 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), is down 23 percent from

February and 57 percent less than last season’s utilized production. This is the smallest crop since the

1964-65 season. Tangelo harvest is complete as of March 1.

Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 397,000 tons, unchanged from the February 1

forecast but up 7 percent from last season’s final utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop, at

5.90 million boxes (280,000 tons), remains the same as last month but 7 percent above last season’s utilization

of 5.50 million boxes. Harvest of the early tangerine varieties is complete. Honey tangerine harvest is

underway. Average fruit size is larger than the 10-season average and droppage is expected to be slightly less

than average. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from the previous forecast.

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged

from February but 8 percent above last season’s final utilization. If attained, the crop would be the third lowest

since the freeze affected 1989-90 season. Fruit droppage and size are below average this season.

Florida Citrus: Florida’s weather in the citrus areas during February was beneficial with cool nighttime

temperatures and moderate to warm days. Several cold fronts passed through the State bringing overnight

temperatures to the mid to upper 30's. Daytime highs reached to the low 80's on several days with some cloudy

days near the end of the month. The cold fronts brought varying amounts of rainfall with the most precipitation

the last week of the month. Coastal areas received over 2.5 inches while the interior had generally over 2 inches. 

Citrus trees in all areas are in excellent condition following the good weather of the past several months. New

growth was reported mid-month in some southern locations and statewide by the end of the month. Some early

orange varieties in the southern groves are near full open bloom, while later blooming varieties like tangerines

are showing buds just forming. Upper interior and central area groves are just entering the bloom cycle with

swelling buds prevalent on early blooming varieties. 

Early-midseason orange harvest is declining as the season nears completion. Navel orange harvest was nearly

complete by the first of the month. Valencia oranges are beginning to be harvested, primarily for fresh

shipments. Grapefruit harvest for fresh use increased during the month with harvest for processing increasing

near the end of the month. Early variety tangerine harvest is complete and Honey tangerine harvest is well under

way. Tangelo harvest is complete and Temple harvest for processing is active.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 15 NASS, USDA

California Citrus: The Navel orange harvest continued throughout February but was slowed by rain during the

later part of the month. Puff and crease continued to affect blood variety oranges, while the Cara Cara variety

oranges were picked and packed. Lemon harvest continued in the Central Valley and South Coastal regions but

was wrapping up in the desert region by the end of the month. Mandarins and tangelos were picked as

conditions allowed. The Oroblanco and Pummelo variety grapefruit continue to be harvested in the Central

Valley, while the Rio Red variety was being harvested in the Coachella Valley. Snail control in citrus groves

was ongoing.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating,

irrigating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Sunny days during the middle of February

encouraged more widespread blooming in early variety peach, nectarine, and plum orchards. Rain late in the

month posed a potential threat to a good stone fruit set, as bloom and pollination were already in progress. Tree

loss from high winds was reported in Sutter County. Pruning, cane tying, and some brush shredding were

ongoing in raisin, wine, and table grape vineyards. Tree and vine removal and the planting of new trees and

vines were delayed due to muddy conditions. Some grafting of table grapes began in Tulare County. Stumps

and brush from orchard and vineyard removal were piled for burning. Almond trees were blooming across the

State, but were at varying stages depending on location and weather conditions. High winds and rain blew over

some almond trees in the San Joaquin Valley. Dormant sprays and bloom sprays were applied as weather and

soil conditions allowed. Pruning in walnut and pistachio orchards continued as weather permitted.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 16 NASS, USDA

Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees

and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit

droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas

conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also

conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to

prepare the published March 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary

released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing

season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made

for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.3 percent. However, if you

exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are two

out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more

than 3.3 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence

level) that the difference will not exceed 5.8 percent, or 5.4 percent excluding freeze seasons.

Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

236,000 tons (221,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons (8,000 tons to

713,000 tons, excluding freezes). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times

and above 14 times (below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not

imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2004 17 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to

contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Jim Smith - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202 )720-2127

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 8, 2004.

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