Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States

1993-94 and Forecasted August 1

1

-
>
rey wno

=
a
NRO

=
a
e

994 1995
1,000 Acres
295 220
400 3,300
220 230
42 28
500 320
530 9,650
680 5,180
£770 9,150
100 2,050
130 1,080
120 1,030
550 540
540 1,490
600 5,900
920 1,900
560 4,700
860 2,960
147 118
350 1,050
610 630
«990 4,080
290 285
315 315
580 530
420 2,400
050 1,080
210 210
520 490
830 800
129

1994 1995

-- Bushels --
31.0 25.0
34.0 33.0
37.0 30.0
31.0 32.0
31.0 25.0
46.0 39.0
47.0 43.0
51.0 43.0
36.0 28.0
38.0 36.0
29.0 30.0
36.0 34.0
38.0 39.0
41.0 38.0
31.0 31.0
38.0 31.0
48.0 33.0
35.0 40.0
31.0 28.0
31.0 25.0
44.0 39.0
32.0 27.0
43.0 44.0
27.0 26.0
39.0 25.0
37.0 33.0
34.0 28.0
33.0 31.0
44.0 40.0
41.9 36.4

1993

8,160
387,000
223,100
257,300
53,200
37,950
31,200
14,820
54,720
115,000
42,900
118,800
90,000
4,263
30,000
9,180
156,180
6,240
11,505

7,800
38,500
32,240

3,895
10,780
20,650

1,870,958

9,145
115,600
8,140
1,302
15,500
438,380
219,960
447,270
75,600
42,940
32,480
19,800
58,520
229,600
59,520
173,280
137,280
5,145
41,850
18,910
175,560
9,280
13,545
15,660
94,380
38,850
7,140
17,160
36,520

2,558,317 2,245,901

Crop Product
August 1995

jon

A-20

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
{SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

August 5, 1995

NOAA/UBDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _ Bases en pretminary somes,

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly. can change considerably week to week, and
indicates norma) conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-1 NASS, USDA


Pears: Total Production by Crop. State. and United States.

1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Bartlett
CA
OR
WA

Total

Excluding Bartlett
CA
OR
WA

Total

All
CA
co
CT
MI
NY
OR
PA
UT
WA

20,000
160,000
220,000

400,000

30,
175,
218,

423,

000
000
000

000

000
000
000

000

Coffee:

Utilized Production, Hawaii,

Utilized Production 1/

1993-1994

1992-1993

19

94-1995

1/_ Parchment basis.

Crop Production
August 1995

A-37

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Yields were unchanged in North and South Dakota from last month, but increases
are shown in Iowa and Minnesota.

Barley: Total barley production is forecast at 385 million bushels, up

2 percent from July and 3 percent above the 1994 production of
375 million bushels. Yields are expected to average 59.9 bushels per acre, up
0.9 of a bushel from July and 3.7 bushels above last year.

Area harvested and to be harvested, at 6.42 million acres. is 4 percent below
the 6.67 million acres harvested a year earlier.

Forecasted yields were unchanged in North Dakota. Idaho, and Minnesota, but
increased in Montana, South Dakota, and Washington.

Winter Wheat: Area for grain is 41.3 million acres, unchanged from the July
forecast. Harvesting progress picked up in July, reaching

83 percent completion in the 19 major producing States as of July 30. This is

just a point behind average.

Michigan's harvest is ahead of the normal pace: yields are much better than
expected earlier. Northern Indiana's wheat test weights and quality were even
better than anticipated.

Head numbers in the soft red winter States of Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio were
a1] above average, but only Ohio had above average gross head weights. All
seven of the predominant Hard Red Winter wheat States (Colorado. Kansas. .
Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas) have forecast head numbers
exceeding average, most at record high levels. Head weights are another matter:
Montana forecast is the highest in four years. South Dakota and Texas are the
only other HRW States not having record low head weights.

Objective yield forecasts in the Pacific Northwest show above average head
counts, ranging from 29 to 44 heads per square foot. Forecast head weight is at
record high levels in Idaho and Oregon. Washington’s average is the third
highest.

Ourum Wheat: Production for 1995 is forecast at 114 million bushels, up

1 percent from July and 17 percent higher than 1994. Nearly all
of the production change from last month is due to a 50,000 acre increase in
North Dakota. Both planted and harvested acres were raised as a result of the
follow-up verification of late planted crops. The U.S. planted area is now
3.32 million acres; harvested is 3.26 million acres, up 19 percent from 1994.
Average yields are once again forecast at 35.0 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel
from a year ago.

The northern Durum crop is rated in mostly good condition; development trails
average progress by 2 weeks in some areas. North Dakota's Durum has been rated
70+ percent good to excellent most of July. There, the forecast average number
of heads is the lowest since 1989 while the gross head weight forecast is the
highest since 1986.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-6 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Area Harvested

State :
1994 1995 1994: 1995
1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bushels --
AZ 1/ : 33 21 95.0 90.0 90.0 3.135 1,890
CA : 220 200 65.0 70.0 70.0 14,300 14,000
co : 83 100 90.0 95.0 105.0 7,470 10,500
DE 1/ : 30 37 63.0 75.0 75.0 1,890 2,775
1D : 720 760 75.0 77.0 77.0 54,000 58.520
KS : 14 8 38.0 20.0 30.0 $32 240
KY 1/ : 14 16 79.0 77.0 77.0 1,106 1,232
MD : 60 62 70.9 67.9 75.9 4,200 4,650
MI 1/ : 32 23 51.0 50.0 50.0 1,632 1,150
MN : 600 585 50.0 50.0 50.0 30,000 29,250
MT : 1,200 1,200 44.0 54.0 56.0 52,800 67.200
: -0 36.0 36.0 304 288
0 80.0 80.0 340 320
0 72.0 72.0 265 360
0 60.0 60.0 1,750 1,800
0 52.0 52.0 132,000 122,200
0 35.0 35.0 222 105
0 75.0 77.0 9,490 7.315
0 69.0 75.0 4,875 5,625
0 28.0 28.0 504 140
0 37.0 40.0 13,020 6.800
0 46.0 46.0 264 690
0 90.0 90.0 8.025 8,550
0 78.0 78.0 6.351 6,240
0 67.0 70.0 14.335 20,300
0 52.0 52.0 4,452 4,472
0 85.0 85.0 7,600 8,075
2 59.0 59.9 374,862 384, 687

1l/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-14 NASS. USDA


California Fruits and Nuts: Grape growers thinned and irrigated vineyards as

well as treated for mildew and insects. The
Central Valley began harvesting table grapes. Stone fruit harvest was active in
the central and southern parts of the state. Apple orchards were disked for
weed control and treated to contro! Codling Moth and Fireblight. Gala and
Gravenstein apple harvest began. Bartlett pear harvest was active in the
Sacramento area. Berry harvest continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Almond
orchards were treated for mites and Navel orange worm. The almond crop looked
spotty. Walnuts were sprayed for blight. Husk Fly. and Codling Moth. Some
sunburn damage was reported in walnuts. Pistachio orchards were sprayed for
Navel orange worm. Avocado harvest continued in the San Joaquin Valley and
Riverside County.

California Citrus: Grapefruit outside the Desert Valley continued to show good
quality. Some defects reported include scar. scale,

sheepnose, and picking injuries. The 1994-95 lemon crop harvest continued but

was nearing the end. Valencia orange picking was close to two-thirds complete.

Sunburn, puff, and crease were concerns to growers. Set was better in the

San Joaquin Valley than Southern California. New crop citrus maturity

progressed well. Treatment for Red Scale was applied.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-16 NASS, USDA


Pears: Total U.S. production is placed at 963.300 tons. down 8 percent from
last year’s record high crop but 2 percent more than 1993.

Bartlett production in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at
510,000 tons. down 14 percent from a year ago. California reports a good
quality crop. Picking is well underway in the Sacramento and Mendocino
districts of California with over 30 percent of the crop harvested. Oregon
producers expect an average crop, down 16 percent from last year’s bumper crop.
Uncharacteristic spring weather patterns resulted in lengthened bloom periods
and uneven pollination. Washington's crop is in good condition and progressing
well as production is expected to exceed last year’s level.

Production of pears. other than Bartlett, in the Pacific Coast States. is
estimated to be 420.000 tons, down 1 percent from 1994. In California, Asian
pear picking is underway with good quality reported. Oregon's crop is making
good progress. The adverse spring conditions did not affect Oregon's winter
pears as badly as it did the Bartletts since they mature later. Harvest is
expected to begin in early September. Washington’s crop is developing well. If
realized, this would be a record pear crop, excluding Bartletts.

Colorado expects a short but good quality pear crop. Michigan reports a choice
crop with a 33 percent increase over last year. Harvest is scheduled to begin
August 24. The New York and Pennsylvania crops are making good progress. The
continued lack of moisture could reduce fruit size in both states. Utah growers
reported that an unusually warm February followed by hail storms and a late
freeze have reduced this year’s crop. Forecasted production of 900 tons will be
their lowest since 1972.

Coffee: Hawaii coffee production for crop year 1994 totaled 4.0 million pounds

parchment basis. Up 38 percent from the previous crop year, this
output is the largest since the 1970 crop of 4.3 million pounds. Hawaii island
production declined 8 percent primarily due to inadequate rainfall. This island
accounts for over 40 percent of the total coffee produced in the State.
Offsetting the decline on Hawaii. production from the islands of Maui, Molokai.
and Kauai increased a combined 134 percent. Continued maturing of young trees
led to the jump on these three islands and production is expected to continue
rising as trees have not yet reached full maturity.

Grapes: Production is forecast at 5.77 million tons. down 2 percent from 1994.
Larger crops are forecast in Washington and Michigan, while California,
New York, and Pennsylvania expect smaller crops this year.

Total grape production for California is 5.09 miliion tons. down 1 percent from
last month and 3 percent below last year. Raisin type varieties, at

2.25 million tons, are up 2 percent from last month but down 6 percent from last
year. Compared with last year, objective measurement survey data show lower
bunch counts with average bunch sizes wider and thicker but shorter. Thompson
seedless variety grapes are being picked for fresh use in the San Joaquin
Valley. Maturity is behind normal. but recent hot weather may help. Picking
for wine and raisin use should begin by late August.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-14 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The “Hazelnut Production” report for 1995 will be released as scheduled on

August 24.

The initial forecast for the 1995-96 California Navel orange crop will be in
the September “Crop Production” report.

The next “Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on

September 12, 1995.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief

Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head

Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice

(202)

(202)
(202)

Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Tobacco, Weekly Crop Weather (202)

720-2127

720-3843
720-9526
720-7621
720-8068
720-7369

720-3843
720-4285
720-5944
720-4215
720-2157
720-5412
720-7688

Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202)

Chartes Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats (202)
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Stephen Ropel, Head (202)

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions (202)

Roger Latham - Cotton. Hay (202)

Linda McMillan - Nuts, Grapes (202)

Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202)

Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202)

Barbara Soltes - Noncitrus Fruits. Peanuts (202)

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 B-20

NASS, USDA


Sugarcane: Sugarcane production for U.S. sugar and seed in 1995 is expected to

total 29.2 million tons, a decrease of 6 percent from 1994. Area
for harvest. at 924.200 acres. is virtually unchanged from the June “Acreage”
report but 1 percent below last year. Forecasted yield, at 31.6 tons per acre,
is 1.4 tons below last year's yield.

A dry spring in the Delta and Southeastern States slowed sugarcane development
early in the season, but recent rains have replenished soil moisture supplies
and improved growth. Hurricane Erin bypassed Florida's sugarcane region, but
cloudy skies limited sunshine and could adversely affect yields. In Louisiana.
insect problems from the cane borer have been light. Hawaii's yield decline was
attributed to the removal of less productive acres.

Prunes and Plums: Production in Idaho. Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is
expected to total 25,000 tons. 34 percent Jess than last
year’s crop and 11 percent below 1993.

The Oregon forecast of 6.500 tons is down 6&6 percent from 1994. Adverse weather
during pollination led to a poor set. Idaho expects 3.000 tons, off 33 percent
from last year. Poor pollination and set followed by a freeze in mid-April and
hail damage reduced their crop. If realized, Idaho production will match the
record low set in 1991. The Washington forecast. at 7.000 tons, decreased

19 percent from 1994. Though smaller. a good quality crop is expected. In
Michigan, production is expected to exceed last year by 42 percent. Crop
conditions and yields are good. Some producers indicate their crop may go
unharvested due to poor economic conditions.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.49 million pounds for
July, 8 percent lower than June and 25 percent lower than July 1994.

July weather was mixed. Day temperatures approached the mid-90's and light to
moderate Showers were interspersed with sunny conditions. Papaya ringspot virus
continues to depress yields and production in the major producing area of the
state.

Area devoted to papaya production is estimated at 3,780 acres in July, up
slightly from June and 17 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area. at
2,380 acres, was 10 percent lower than last month but 11 percent more than July
1994,

Hops: Production in 1995 is forecast at 76.0 million pounds, up 2 percent from
last year but slightly less than 1993. Yield is expected to average

1,748 pounds per acre. off 10 pounds from 1994. Oregon and Washington expanded

their hop acreage this year, while Idaho's area for harvest dropped slightly.

The Washington crop is in good condition with no major problems. Cool weather
early in the season brought about some localized mildew problems, but conditions
have improved considerably. Oregon growers expect a good crop with progress
slightly behind schedule.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-12 NASS, USDA


Ory Edible Beans: Area Planted, by Commercial Class, State, and
United States, 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995 (continued)

Class and State 1994 1995 :: Class and State 1994 1995
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres
Black : :: Other
CA : 2.0 2.0 3: cA 10.0 9.0
co 0.6 1.0: co 1.6 5.2
1D 1.9 4.3: 10 1.4 0.4
KS 0.8 : KS 0.9 1.8
MI 80.0 75.0: MI 15.0 16.0
MN 2.8 6.5: MN 6.8 3.7
NE 2.0 2.0: NE 2.0 2.0
NY 9.0 10.0: NM 0.3 0.3
ND 8.0 13.5: NY 4.0 5.0
WA 3.2 2.5: NO 3.5 3.0
Total 110.3 116.8 + OR 2.0 2.4
: rr TX 4.0 11.5
Blackeye : tr OWA 2.8 1.6
CA : 32.0 48.0 :: WY 2.0 2.0
TX : 14.0 li: Total : 56.3 63.9
Total : 46.0 59.1 :: :
: :: US : 2,025.8 2,049.7
Garbanzo : : :
CA : 14.0
1D : 1.5
OR : 0.9
WA : 5.5
Total : 21.9
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-24 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

August 5, 1995

AOAAMISDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on preliminary reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly: changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-2 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested. United States,
1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

Crop a ey
1994 1995 1994 1995
Hectares
Corn : 32,034,450 28,857,630 29,508,780 26,176,160
Sorghum : 3,954,630 3,687,540 3,628,860 3.349.210
Oats : 2,688,760 2,605,390 1,626,850 1,314,030
Barley : 2,897,180 2,750,270 2,698,070 2,597,300
All Wheat : 28,498,670 28,055,130 24,998,110 24,653,310
Winter : 19,929,770 19,967,000 16.727,860 16,728,270
Durum : 1,153,370 1,341,550 1,108,450 1,317,270
Other Spring > 7,415,540 6,746,590 7,161,800 6.607.780
Rice > 1,356,930 1, 280.840 1,341,950 1,258,990
Soybeans > 25,066,500 25,327,520 24,738,300 24.975.850
Peanuts : 664,100 633.340 654.990 624.640
All Cotton > 5,552,390 6.738.090 5.391.400 6,394,300
Upland : $484,200 6,661. 200 5,324,060 6.318.420
Amer-Pima : 68,190 76,890 67,340 75,880
All Hay : 23,773,110 24,373,670
Alfalfa : 9.802.400 9,971,160
All Other : 13,970,710 14,402,510
Ory Edible Beans : 819,820 829,490 746,730 787,450
Tobacco 2/ : 271,610 277,550
Sugarbeets : 597,240 686,640 583,970 577,490
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 379,110 374,010
Hops : 17,160 17,580

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans. nuts, etc.

2/ 1994 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested,
United States, 1994-95 (Metric Units)

Crop aoe -
1995 1/
: Hectares
Rye : 648,720 658,430 164,300 167,540
Sunflower : 1,443,530 1,460,120 1,388,090 1,409,940
Flaxseed : 72,030 86,200 69,200 83,370
Potatoes i
Winter : 5,220 5.180 4,980 §.100
Spring i 37,070 35, 860 36,580 35,130
Summer : 38,650 29,340 37,230 28,530
Fall : 491,250 493,720 478,380 485,590
Sweetpotatoes : 34,840 35,210 33,510 33,830
1/ 1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-5 NASS, USDA


Peaches:

Total Production by Type. State, and United States,
1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Total Production

/

V/

- Freestone 1/
Vv

1/

Vv

1/

/

V/

l/ 2/
v/

l/ 2/
Vv

/

Vv

V

V/
Vv
l/ 2/
Vv
Vv
2

Vv
Vv
1/
Vv

V/ 2/

Total Above

CA
Cc

lingstone 1/

100.
220.
10.
25.

28.
47.
18.

on
“I
SEOSTTSHEDODSCHOTCOMONOMOUNSTDSCDONOOGCS

re

1,563.

Million

17.
8.
632.
20.

o
a
BR

“Moe
NAMOP MS

33.

25.
15.

250.
20.

12.
41.

Sooo soeaMe
an
a

eornona
oa

no
rn
i)

255.

75 1.552.

Estimates for current year carried forward from July 1 forecast.
No significant production in 1994 due to freeze damage.

V/
2/

Crop

Production

August 1995

A-35

Agricultural Statis

tics Board
NASS, USDA


U.S. Soybean Production

1986 - 1995
Billion Bushels
3.00
2.66
2.60 POPPeeePeeeereTeT TST Tere ee rereerrererer Trey TTT rerrer er rer errr eer etry 349 cect cee te Ahh denne 226°
194 194 192 199 499
Pn 18 Oo .. 187. |

1.60 4 th > |.

Y

]
1.00 Yh

]

—YY GG)

88 88 90 981 +92 98 94 96
Year

0.60 | 7

0.00

to]
~N

Cottonseed: Production, United States,
1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Production
State 2 ----- ne enn ener ene nner ne enn t erence enter ener erste ccenseee
1993 1994 1995 1/
1,000 T
US 6,343.2 7,603.9 8,407.7
1 Based 3- ge] d rati
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-21 NASS, USDA


Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested. Yield. and Production
by State and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1. 1995

Area Harvested Yield Production

1,000 Acres --- Tons ---
AZ : 160 175 7.50 8.00 1,110 1,200 1,400
AR : 25 25 3.40 3.50 90 85 88
cA : 950 1,050 7.00 6.80 6.348 6,650 7,140
co : 840 850 3.90 3.50 3.230 3.276 2,975
CT : 24 20 2.90 2.30 48 70 46
DE : 5 4 5.20 4.75 19 26 19
1D : 1,020 1,100 3.90 3.80 4,200 3,978 4,180
IL : 650 650 3.50 4.00 3,002 2,275 2,600
IN : 350 280 3.80 4.00 1,320 1,330 1,120
IA : 1,250 1,450 3.70 4.00 3.953 4,625 5,800
KS : 800 850 3.90 3.80 3.230 3,120 3.230
KY : 300 290 3.70 4.00 1,110 1,110 1,160
ME : 18 15 2.50 2.30 53 45 35
MD : 60 55 4.60 4.50 202 276 248
MA : 29 25 2.70 2,50 71 78 63
MI : 1.050 1,050 3.90 3.80 4,620 4,095 3,990
MN : 1.600 1,425 3.70 3.60 4,800 5,920 5.130
MO : 450 500 2.80 2.70 1,485 1,260 1,350
MT : 1,550 1,650 2.30 2.50 3.480 3,565 4,125
NE : 1,400 1,350 3.60 3.50 4.760 5.040 4,725
NV : 240 240 4.30 4.40 1,034 1,032 1,056
NH : 19 18 2.10 2.00 37 40 36
NJ : 30 30 3.70 3.70 69 111 111
NM : 260 260 5.20 5.50 1.301 1,352 1,430
NY : 620 600 2.95 2.50 1.715 1,829 1,500
NC : 20 20 3.00 3.10 40 60 62
ND > 1,450 1,500 1.90 2.60 3,230 2,755 3,900
OH : 660 750 4.20 3.80 2.275 2,772 2,850
OK : 320 400 3.50 3.30 1,188 1,120 1,320
OR : 410 450 4.00 4.20 1.764 1,640 1,890
PA : 800 780 3.00 3.00 2,262 2,400 2.340
RI : 2 2 2.50 2.50 4 5 §
so > 2,500 2,400 2.10 2.80 5.980 5,250 6.720
TN : 50 50 3.30 3.00 198 165 150
TX : 90 150 4.50 4.10 366 405 615
UT : 525 545 4.20 4.30 2.200 2.205 2,344
VT : 105 90 2.20 1.90 212 231 171
VA : 140 140 3.10 3.10 351 434 434
WA : 470 500 4.70 5.10 2,160 2.209 2,550
Wy : 50 40 3.20 2.80 128 160 112
WI : 2,300 2.200 2.50 2.40 5.060 5.750 5,280
WY : 630 660 2.30 2.70 1.600 1,449 1,782
US 24,222 24,639 3.36 3.49 80.305 81.398 86.082
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-27 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted by Commercial Class. State,
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres
Large Lima
24.0 22.
Baby Lima 14.0 13.0
CA 26.0 23.0 : 8.7 14.5
: 0.6 2.2
Navy : 13.0 12.0
co 2.0 0.8 : 9.6 9.3
1D 3.5 7.4 15.0 16.0
KS 1.6 1.2 21.0 18.0
MI 230.0 255.0 : 81.9 85.0
MN 45.2 70.0 :
NE 4.0 7.0:
NM 4.1 4.2:
ND 135.0 165.0 7.0 4.0
OR 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.9
wy 2.0 2.0 13.0 9.0
Total 428.4 514.2 35.6 26.0
5.0 1.0
Great Northern 6.0 3.0
co 0.9 4, 11.4 11.0
ID 3.5 7. 78.7 54.9
KS : 2.
NE : 77.0 108.
WA : 1. 7.0 7.0
wy I 4.0 4. 23.6 13.2
Total : 85.4 126. 3.5
: 1.0 1.5
Small White 7.5 5.5
1D 3.5 2 3.7 4.5
MI 1.0 1 42.8 35.2
OR 2.3 1
WA 1.6 3 Small Red :
Total 8.4 8 ID : 27.0 15.6
WA : 11.5 10.7
Total : 38.5 26.3
Cranberry
2.0
1.4
30.0 28.0
3.0 3.0
33.0 34.4

THOWMBROSCBDOBDOWOM

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-23 NASS, USDA


Apples. Commercial: Total Production by State and United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Total Production 1/

State ener eee rere ee eee rere eee en eee rete nee ne eee e cence teeters
1993 1994 1995
Million Pounds
AZ 2/ 61.0 64.0
AR 12.0 8.0 14.0
CA 880.0 1,050.0 1,000.0
co 92.0 85.0 70.0
cT 24.5 25.0 23.0
DE 28.0 20.0 21.0
GA 34.0 26.0 35.0
1D 195.0 165.0 70.0
TL 90.0 47.0 85.0
IN 80.0 50.0 72.0
IA 9.5 12.0 8.0
KS 7.0 5.0 7.5
ky 22.0 7.0 17.0
ME 54.0 54.0 61.0
MD 42.0 35.0 48.0
MA : 59.0 62.5 65.0
MI : 1,020.0 1,020.0 1,210.0
MN : 23.0 23.2 24.0
MO 51.0 33.0 40.0
NH 36.5 41.0 39.0
NJ 75.0 70.0 80.0
NM 2/ 7.0 8.0
NY 870.0 1,100.0 1,130.0
NC 320.0 250.0 240.0
OH 105.0 90.0 110.0
OR 160.0 200.0 140.0
PA 530.0 400.0 §30.0
RI 5.3 4.8 5.0
sc 60.0 60.0 75.0
TMN 19.0 10.0 18.0
UT 53.0 48.0 20.0
VT 38.0 42.0 41.0
VA 370.0 290.0 400.0
WA 5,000.0 5,700.0 5,200.0
WV 190.0 150.0 190.0
WI 62.0 80.0 77.0
us 10.684.8 11,335.5 11,185.5

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.
2/ Data not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-36 NASS, USDA


Production by Class, United States, 1993-94

1,000 Bushels

Wheat:
and Forecasted August 1, 1995 1/
Winter

Year Hard Soft Hard

Red Red White Red
1993 : 1,065,941 401.326 292.876 511.814
1994 971.134 433,335 256.574 515,392
1995 847.172 444.229 260,829

available for wheat producing States.

70,476
97,347

608.075 113,774

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on the latest varietal acreage survey data

54,007

46,828
53,343

2,396,440
2,320,610
2,227,422

Untess unusual situations dictate,

the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the
forecast season.

Peanuts for Nuts:
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995 1/

Production

Area Harvested

AL
FL
GA
NM
NC
OK
Sc
TX
VA

1994 1995
1,000 Acres
222.0 214.
84.0 80.
649.0 605.
21.0 20.
151.0 150.
100.0 100.
12.5 12
287.0 270.
92.0 92.
618.5 1,543

e0nc00q0000

Area Harvested, Yield. and Production by State

,010
470
870
460
215
610
900
110
165

SONYNYNMoNMNYDND

2,200
2,600
2.600
2,000
2,700
2,700
2,600
2,300
2,800

473,220
194,880
1,383,545
56,680
299,585
233,580
24,500
550,175
176,250

446,

207,
1,862,
. 660
465
000
250
570
180

220
480
630

1995

470,800
208,000
1,573,000
40.000
405,000
270.000
32,500
621,000
257.600

3,877,900

1/ Estimates comprised

Crop Production

August 1995

of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA




Corn for Grain:

and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State

Area Harvested :

1994 1995

1,000 Acres
AL 260 220
AZ 15 20
AR 90 85
CA 170 140
co 890 800
CT 1/
OE 150 142
FL 80 60
GA 540 360
ID 35 35
IL 11,450 10.000
IN 5.960 5,200
IA 12.700 11.500
KS 2,130 1,950
KY 1,220 1,150
LA 306 235
ME 1/
MD 390 380
MA 1/
MI 2,230 2,100
MN 6.450 6,000
MS 305 275
MO 2,300 1,350
MT 20 18
NE 8,300 7,800
NH 1/
NJ 81 82
NM 85 85
NY 590 560
nC 900 800
ND 540 400
OH 3,500 3.150
OK 165 125
OR : 20 17
PA : 1,030 990
RI l/s:
Sc : 345 280
SD > 3,400 2,300
TN 570 570
x 2,040 2,100
UT 22 23
VT 1/ i
VA : 350 300
WA : 105 105
wy 35 35
Wi 3,100 2,900
wy 48 40
US 72,917 64,682

13,750
1,600
8.190

28,050

106.800

13.600
6,500
39,200
5,625
1,300,000
712,800
880.000
216.000
126.880
19,950

32.760

225,500
322,000
14,820
166,500
840
785,200

7,680
14,025
56,700
55,250
16,425

360,800
15,225

2,945

93,120

9.600
160,650
46,200
212,750
2,860

17,100
15,200
3,655
216,200
3,520

6,336.470

1995
Production
1994 1995

1,000 Bushels ----- --
24,960 15,400
2,550 3.200
10,800 10.625
28.050 22.400
133.500 116,000
18.750 14,200
6.800 4,620
57,240 34,200
4,900 4,900
1,786,200 1,330,000
858.240 702.000
1,930,400 1,552,500
304.590 273,000
156.160 138,000
35,190 24,675
46.020 41,800
260.910 252,000
915,900 780.000
30,500 26.125
273,700 141,750
2.700 2,520
1.153.700 951.600
9,639 9.020
12.750 14,450
68.440 58.240
81,900 84.000
54.000 36.000
486.500 390,600
16.500 15,000
3,400 2,380
123,600 116,820
29,325 23,800
367,200 177.100
66.120 68.400
238.680 245.700
2,860 2.875
34,300 33.000
19,425 19,950
3,675 3,850
437,100 374,100
5,856 4,720
10,103,030 8.121.520

1/ Not estimated.

Crop Production
August 1995

Yield

1994
--- Bushels ---
96.0 70.
170.0 160.
120.0 125
165.0 160
150.0 145
125.0 100
85.0 77
106.0 95
140.0 140
156.0 133
144.0 135
152.0 135
143.0 140
128.0 120
115.0 105
118.0 110
117.0 120
142.0 130
100.0 95
119.0 105
135.0 140
139.0 122.
119.0 110.
150.0 170.
116.0 104.
91.0 105.
100.0 90
139.0 124.
100.0 120.
170.0 140.
120.0 118.
85,0 85.
108.0 77
116.0 120.
117.0 117.
130.0 125.
98.0 110.
185.0 190
105.0 110
141.0 129
122.0 118
138.6 125

A-10

Agricultural Statistics

NASS,

Board
USDA


Prunes and Plums: Total Production by State and United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

: Production
State i
Tons
ID 7,000 4,500 3.000
MI 7,000 6,000 8.500
OR 4,500 19,000 6,500
WA 9,700 8.600 7,000
Total 28.200 38,100 25,000

bocce cece eee e cee eco e ees eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees > 1994 1995

-- 1,000 Pounds --

Jun 3,775 2,295 5.305 3.795

Jul 3.780 2,140 4,665 3.485
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-33 NASS, USDA


Tobacco:

Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by Class. Type. State.

and United States, 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995 (continued)

Class and Type

1994 :

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air-Cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt
KY
TMN
US
Type 36. Green River
Belt
KY

Belt
VA
Total 35-37
Class
Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA

Class
Class 5A, CT Valley
Binder

Type 51, CT Valley
Broadleaf
CT
MA
US
Class 5B, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI
WI
Type 55. Northern WI
WI
Total 54-55
Total 51-55
Class
Type 61, CT Valley
Shade-Grown
CT
MA
us
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61

All Tobacco

Type 37. VA Sun-Cured :

4, Cigar Filler :

5, Cigar Binder :

6, Cigar Wrapper:

ne

eee

eee

480
150
416

780

770
515

.100

890
905
893

100
.710

970
952

390
155
545

180

96
821

450

525
390

915

200

650
850
765

1995 1994 1995
Pounds 1,000 Pounds

2.450 6.448 5
2.100 1,333 1
2,380 7,781 6
2,650 3,892 3,
1,200 124

2,437 11,797 9.
2,100 11.340 9,
1,860 1.304 1,
1,950 400

1,877 1,704 1
2.100 4,200 4,
1,650 1,710 1
1,950 5.910 5
1,932 7.614 7
1,465 1.274 1,
1,500 392

1,473 1,666 1,
1,953 20,620 18,
2,056 1,582,816 1.410,

Crop Production
August 1995

vested
IND
1994 1995
Acres
2,600 2.200
620 550
3.220 2,750
1,400 1,200
70 80
4,690 4,030
5,400 4.500
690 820
210 200
900 1,020
2,000 2,000
1,000 1,000
3,000 3.000
3,900 4,020
910 940
280 260
1,190 1,200
10,490 9,720
671,160 685.840
A-30

Agricultural Statistics

NASS.

Board
USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States. 1994-95 (Domestic Units)
: Yield per Acre Production
Crop and Unit Doce c nrc cect cee cern rene erence eee eee ee teen ee
1994 1995 1/

Potatoes :
Winter Cwt : 193 206 2,372 2,592
Spring "o: 251 258 22,646 22,387
Summer " : 242 239 22,247 16,872
Fall . : 349 412,077
Sweet Cherries Ton : 207.2 135.7
Tart Cherries Lb: 287,800 391,000
Apricots Ton: 158.2 67.5
Dried Prunes (CA) . : 193.0 185.0
Almonds (CA) tb: 730,000 310,000
Walnuts (CA) Ton : 232.0 245.0

Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States, 1994-95 (Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare Production

Metric Tons

Potatoes :
Winter : 21.60 23.05 107,590 117.570
Spring : 28.08 28.91 1,027,210 1,015,460
Summer : 27.10 26.82 1,009,110 765,300
Fall : 39.07 18.691,500
Sweet Cherries : 187.970 123,100
Tart Cherries : 130,540 177,350
Apricots : 143,520 61,230
Dried Prunes (CA) : 175,090 167,830
Almonds (CA) : 331,120 140,610
Walnuts (CA) : 210,470 222.260

1/ 1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Oats
Barley
All Wheat
Winter
Durum
Other Spring
Rice
Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts for Nuts
All Cotton
Upland
Amer -Pima
Cottonseed
All Hay
Alfalfa
All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Tobacco 1/
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed
Hops
Apples, Comm]
Peaches
Pears
Grapes
Prunes and Piums
(Excl CA)
Olives

Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995
(Metric Units)

1994

Metric Tons

FOSONNANNNYNON EE

a ~
Cyr aruT

~
PS

-70
58
05
02
+53
70
39
14
69
81
94
79
79
09

73
-53
46
77
164
70

01
.97

1995 1994
7.88 256,628,780
4.08 16,638,300
2.06 3,336,370
3.22 8,161,660
2.46 63,156,650
2.53 45,206,180
2.35 2,649,350
2.31 15,301,120
6.67 8,971,110
2.45 69,625,980
2.82 1,926,610
0.74 4,280,900
0.74 4,207,370
1.03 73,530
6,898,140
5.86 136,190,200
7.83 73,843,020
4.49 62,347,180
1.85 1,323,900
2.30 717,950
45.38 29,.024.470
70.79 28,058,320
1.96 33,820
5,141,700
1,136,930
949,050
5,325,720
34,560
76,200

2,634,580
8,245,020
59,548,940
41,638,420
3,051,980
14,858,540

1,128,400

206,296,110
13,680,030
2,702,210
8,375,570
60,620,490
42,244,780
3,096,420
15,279,290
8,401,800
61,123,410
1,758,990
4,748,730
4,670,780
77,950
7,627,340
142,767,290
78,092,280
64,675,010
1,455,030
639,690
26,206,750

26,478,000
34,460
5,073,660
1,130,670
873,890
5,236,720

22,680
77,110

1/ 1994 revised.

Crop Production
August 1995

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production

:++ 1,000 Acres -- --- Pounds ---
AR : 1,420 1,340 5,700 5,600 62,094 80,940 75,040
CA : 485 448 8,500 8,300 36,271 41,224 37,184
LA : 620 590 4,750 4,950 24,108 29,448 29,205
MS : 313 295 5.900 5,900 12,985 18,467 17,405
MO t 124 100 5,200 5,100 4,557 6,448 §,100
TX : 354 338 6,000 6.300 16,095 21,252 21,294
US : 3.316 3,111 5,964 5,954 156,110 197,779 185,228

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1993-94 and Forecasted August 2, 1995

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All
1,000 Cwt
1993 : 103.064 51,873 1,173 156,110
1994 : 133,445 63,390 944 197,779
1995 1/ 130,792 53,481 955 185,228

1/ Indicated August 1, 1995. rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-19 NASS, USDA


Selected Crops: Area Planted by State 1995,
and United States, 1993-95

Upland : Pima Hi Edible : Sugarbeets
Cotton : Cotton : Beans :

1,000 Acres

AL : 620

AZ : #355 *48

AR : 1.060

CA : 1,200 95 *150. 120.0
: 42.6

2
o
*
rae
pray
=
a0

FL 5 110
GA : 1,500
1D : 110.0 200.0

KS : *3 34.0
LA : 1,020

MI : 400.0 193.
MN : 160.0 *421,
MS : 1,500
MO : 420

: 11.
NE : *250.

oo

oO
~
a
con

NM : 55 15 13.0

NY : *34.0

NC : 800

ND : 570.0 208.

. OH : 15,
OK t 370

OR : 10.2 20.0

20

SC : *340
TN : 700
TX : 6.300 32 25.0
UT : 6.5

VA : *107

20.2

* Updated from “Acreage” released June 30, 1995.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-9 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, Production, by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995 1/

Area Harvested Production

1994: 1995 1994 : 1995

State

--> Pounds --- ------

- 1,000 Acres -
CA : 131.0 145.0 2.130 2,200 2,210 2.790 3,190
co : 205.0 185.0 1.600 1,600 2,609 3,280 2,960
1D : 138.0 108.0 1.950 1.850 2,091 2,691 1,998
KS : 32.0 32.0 1,750 1,600 378 560 512
MI : 360.0 390.0 1,300 1,700 6,080 4.680 6,630
MN : 121.6 147.0 1,710 1,400 836 2.079 2,058
MT : 10.0 10.8 2.200 2.100 155 220 227
NE : 190.0 240.0 1,880 1,900 2,100 3,572 4,560
NM : 12.5 13.0 2.260 2.000 189 283 260
NY : 38.5 33.0 1.520 1,500 459 585 495
ND : 470.0 20.0 1,300 1,350 2,964 6.110 7,020
OR : 10.0 10.0 1.970 2,300 174 197 230
TX : 26.0 22.0 840 900 3il 218 198
UT : 6.3 6.2 380 400 24 24 25
WA : 40.0 40.0 2,100 2,100 798 840 840
WI : 11.3 10.8 2,100 1.900 145 237 205
WY : 43.0 33.0 1.910 2,030 390 821 670
us 1,845.2 1.945.8 1.582 1.649 21,913 29,187 32,078
1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-25 NASS, USDA


J National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service

Crop
Production

United States

Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released August 11, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on "Crop Production” call (202) 720-2127, office hours 8:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information
about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at
1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV,

Corn Production Down 20 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 8.12 billion bushels. down 20 percent from the
record high production of 1994. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are
expected to average 125.6 bushels per acre, down 13.0 bushels from last year.
Acreage for harvest, at 64.7 million acres, is down 1 percent from the June
“Acreage” estimate and 11 percent below the 1994 final harvested acreage.

All cotton production is forecast at a record high 21.8 million bales, up

11 percent from last year. Crop potential in the Western States was diminished
by winds. cool temperatures, and rainfall early in the season. Yield is
indicated at 663 pounds, down 45 pounds from last year’s record high yield of
708 pounds. Producers planted the largest acreage since 1956, 16.7 million
acres, up 21 percent from 1994, and harvested acreage is estimated at

15.8 million acres, the highest level since 1955.

The first soybean production forecast of the 1995 crop is 2.25 billion bushels,
down 12 percent from the record high of 1994 but up 20 percent from 1993. Yield
is expected to be 36.4 bushels per acre, down 5.5 bushels from the record in
1994, but up 3.8 bushels from 1993. Area to be harvested. at 61.7 million
acres, is down 530,000 acres from June but up 587.000 acres from 1994. The
planting date in the major producing States lagged behind 1994 and the average.
In the same area, plant maturity was behind last year and the average. The
average number of lateral branches was down from 1994 but even with the average.
The forecasted average number of pods was down from 1994. By the end of the
first week of August the percent of soybeans blooming and the percent setting
pods were behind last year and the five-year average. Soybeans were rated in
fair to good condition across the major producing States.

KRRKERRKRRER REE

Special Note

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) intensified survey efforts
in 9 States (IL, IA, KS, ND, SD, NE, MO, IN, & OH) to verify planting and
harvesting intentions that were reported during the June survey period. A
summary of the revised estimated acres planted and to be harvested is included
on page A-40 of this report.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report.

Cr Pr 2-2 (8-95)


fell 4 percent below 1994. Yields are averaging 2,387 pounds, 136 pounds per
acre above last year. Above-average rainfall during July provided favorable
growing conditions across much of Oklahoma. The New Mexico crop is behind
normal devetopment. July temperatures of 100 plus made it almost impossible to
keep enough water on the plants. Cooler temperatures followed and slowed
growth. Ory conditions in Texas prompted steady irrigation where available.
Few disease and insect problems were reported.

Rice: Production is forecast at 185 million cwt. 6 percent below 1994 but

19 percent above 1993. This production level, if realized. would be the
second highest on record. Acreage is down in all States. Production is up
slightly in Texas but is down in every other State. Yield per acre is up in
Louisiana and Texas from 1994. Mississippi yield is unchanged from last year.
Yield in Arkansas, California, and Missouri decreased from the previous year.
Overall, the U.S. yield decreased 10 pounds from 1994.

The percent of rice headed is behind 1994 in all States, except Louisiana.
However, most States are equal to or above the five-year average. Conditions in
Arkansas are similar to last year and the crop is progressing well. Planting in
California was later than normal due to the wet winter and spring. Cool weather
early in the growing season slowed growth. Until mid to late August the
temperature wil] be important to the rice yield in California. Good weather and
little disease has resulted in a Louisiana rice crop condition of mostly good.

Soybeans: Growers planted 62.6 million acres of soybeans for the 1995 crop,
down 520.000 acres from the June estimate but up 1 percent from 1994.
The reductions since June in I?linois, North Dakota, Missouri, North Carolina.
Oklahoma, and South Dakota were due to adverse weather conditions at planting
time and account for a reduction of 720.000 acres. The jargest was a
350,000 acre drop in South Dakota. The decrease is offset by an increase in
acreage in Indiana and Nebraska. Area to be harvested, at 61.7 million acres,
is down 530,000 acres from June. Reductions in harvested acreage followed
decreases in planted acreage.

The planting date in the major producing States lagged behind 1994 and the
average. In the same area, plant maturity was behind last year and the average.
The plant count in Arkansas was one of the largest of the last five years. The
average number of lateral branches was down from 1994 but even with the average.
Indiana and Ohio were the only two major States to show an increase in the
number of laterals from 1994. The forecasted average number of pods was down
from 1994.

By the end of the first week of August the percent of soybeans blooming and the
percent setting pods were behind last year and the five-year average. The
percent of soybeans biooming lagged 13 points behind last year and 3 points
behind the average. The percent of soybeans setting pods were 29 points behind
1994 and 12 points behind the average. Soybeans were rated in fair to good
condition across the major producing States.

Cotton: Upland cotton plantings, at 16.5 million acres. are up 21 percent from
the previous year. Harvested acreage increased 19 percent to

15.6 million acres. American-Pima planted and harvested acreage increased from

1994 by 13 percent to 190,000 acres and 187.500 acres. respectively.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-8 NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Area Harvested :

1,000 Acres

AL : 20 8 45.0 40.0 817 900 320
AR : 245 185 75.0 70.0 12,470 18,375 12,950
co : 170 220 45.0 45.0 7,140 7,650 9,900
GA : 40 30 50.0 38.0 1,440 2,000 1,140
IL : 180 170 99.0 83.0 17,430 17,820 14,110
KS : 3,000 2.900 77.0 68.0 176,400 231,000 197,200
KY : 11 16 92.0 90.0 750 1,012 1,440
LA : 123 57 68.0 70.0 7,200 8,364 3,990
MS : 70 45 76.0 76.0 4,225 5,250 3,420
MO : 550 550 90.0 87.0 39.420 49,500 47,850
NE : 1,250 1,050 98.0 69.0 73.750 122,500 72,450
NM : 180 195 38.0 40.0 7,425 6,840 7,800
NC : 20 15 55.0 50.0 675 1,100 750
OK : 280 280 50.0 52.0 14,500 14,000 14,560
sc : 8 8 40.0 35.0 160 320 280
SD : 190 180 65.0 44.0 10,500 12,350 7,920
TTM : 30 17 88.0 87.0 3.120 2.640 1,479
TX : 2,600 2,350 59.0 60.0 156,750 153,400 141,000
US 8.967 8.276 73.0 65.1 534.172 655,021 538,559
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-12 NASS, USDA


U.S. Corn Production
1986 - 1995

Billion Bushels

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995


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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-21 NASS, USDA


two tropical storm systems bringing much-needed moisture to the Central and
Eastern States.

Early July began with hot, humid weather and persistent showers over most of the
Eastern United States, limiting fieldwork. The rainfall slowed the small grain
harvest but boosted row crop growth in the Midwest. The wet field conditions
prevented farmers from spraying or cultivating fields, resulting in insect and
weed problems. Some fields remained unplanted in the northern Great Plains,
where the dry, baked topsoi] hampered emergence.

The record-breaking heat wave that started in the central Plains and crossed the
Nation early in July stressed row crops. High temperatures across the Corn Belt
raised concern for fields beginning to tassel and silk. Midwestern States
started July with adequate soil moisture that sustained the crops through some
of the hottest weather in years. Late-planted row crops with shallow roots were
adversely affected by the high temperatures. The hot, dry weather rapidly
ripened small grains and spurred the wheat harvest. Cool weather in the Western
States slowed crop development.

Mid-July brought hot weather across the southern half of the Nation, further
depleting soi] moisture levels and lowering crop condition ratings. In the Corn
Belt, hot weather and dry soils were offset by widespread showers and cooler
weather that brought relief to some areas. Continued hot weather increased
moisture needs, lowering soil moisture levels in the Southeast and forcing
producers to irrigate. Row crop development increased significantly as a result
of the continued hot weather but remained behind the average for mid-July.
Variability of crop growth and development caused by the heat wave raised
producers’ concern. Favorable weather in the Pacific Northwest allowed harvest
activity to make good progress.

The month ended with beneficial rains that allowed crops in the central Corn
Belt to tolerate the heat. The rain improved crop condition in portions of the
Great Plains and Corn Belt, but conditions varied widely as the scattered
showers left some dry pockets. Crop progress advanced rapidly but continued to
lag behind normal across much of the Midwest. The hot weather accelerated crop
development in fields with adequate soil moisture. Continued hot summer weather
increased crop moisture needs, lowering soil moisture levels across the Nation.
Crops in the Central States were beginning to show signs of heat stress, raising
producers’ concern for crops in the pollination phase. In the Pacific
Northwest. favorable weather allowed harvest activity to make good progress.
July ended with Tropical Storm Dean bringing much needed-rains to the Texas
Coastal region.

Corn: Acreage planted to corn is estimated at 71.3 million acres. down

1 percent from the June 1 Acreage Report, and 10 percent below the 1994
planted acreage. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 64.7 million acres, down
1 percent from the June 1, estimate and 11 percent below last year.

The August 1, Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record high stalk count for
the ten objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan. Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio. South Dakota, and Wisconsin). The forecasted ears per

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-4 NASS. USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State and
United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1. 1995 1/

Area Harvested Yield : Production
State : : : : : :

1994 : 1995 : 1994 :; 1995 : 1993 : 1994 ; 1995

1,000 Acres s-2- TONS ----- 00 wenn eee 1,000 Tons ------
CA : 141.0 118.0 29.0 27.0 3.536 4,089 3,186
co : 43.2 41.3 21.9 21.0 924 946 867
1D : 201.0 198.0 27.9 25.0 4,733 5.608 4,950
MI : 187.0 190.0 16.2 18.0 3.179 3.029 3,420
MN : 411.0 416.0 20.6 17.5 5,344 8,467 7,263
MT : 54.0 55.5 24.2 23.0 1,169 1,307 1,277
NE : 74.1 72.7 20.3 17.5 1,473 1,504 1,272
ND : 201.5 207.0 21.2 17.6 3,112 4.272 3,650
OH : 16.0 14.7 16.5 17.5 212 264 257
OR : 16.4 18.0 27.8 27.0 372 456 486
TX : 24.5 19.6 20.3 22.7 823 497 445
WY : 61.3 62.0 18.0 21.0 1,269 1,103 1,302
Oth :
Sts 2/: 12.0 14.2 37.7 36.1 103 452 513
US : 1,443.0 1,427.0 22.2 20.2 26,249 31,994 28,888

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production
by State and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1

1.000 Acres ---- TONS ---- 000 we eeee 1,000 Tons -------
FL : 444.0 445.0 33.6 32.0 15,152 14,937 14,240
HI : 69.3 52.0 77.4 85.0 5,606 5,364 4,420
LA : 380.0 385.0 24.4 24.0 8.904 9.272 9,240
TX : 43.5 42.2 31.2 30.5 1.439 1.356 1,287
US : 936.8 924.2 33.0 31.6 31,101 30,929 29,187
1/ Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-32 NASS, USDA


The West Texas crop was subject to sparse rainfall until early August, and
stress was evident in some fields. Early season storms in the High Plains
forced some replanting as hail, high winds. and some seedling diseases affected
the crop. Southern Texas yields suffered from beet armyworm infestations and
drought. Defoliation activities continued in the Rio Grande Valley through
South Texas in late July. One percent of the crop was harvested at the end of
July, compared with 4 percent last year and an average of 2 percent. One-half
of the Texas crop was in good to excellent condition at the end of July, the
same as in the previous year. Half the crop was setting bolls; only one percent
less than normal. Objective yield data indicate Texas has the third lowest
number of squares, large bolls, and total fruit since 1985. Small boll counts
are the fourth lowest during this same period.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated their cotton mostly in good to excellent condition. Twenty-two percent of
the Arkansas crop was in excellent condition and 27 percent of Tennessee cotton
was rated excellent as of late July. Boll development in the region was ahead
of the average. Mississippi was 13 percent in front of the average and
Tennessee was 19 percent higher than usual. Data from objective yield surveys
show large bol} counts for Arkansas at their second lowest point since 1985 and
small bolls as eighth lowest. Squares are the highest during this time period.
Compared with the previous 10 years. Louisiana large and small bolls ranked
eighth and seventh. respectively. The number of squares were highest.
Mississippi large bolls counts were the third lowest in the past 10 years while
small bolls ranked fifth. Squares were the second highest for the same time
period.

At the end of July, fifty-one percent of Arizona cotton was in good to excellent
condition. Persistent cool temperatures hampered development al] season. Boll
set was 77 percent complete, about 20 points behind last year and the average.
Ninety-five percent of the crop in California was in good to excellent
condition, but, boll set at 90 percent, was 8 percent below the 5-year average.
The San Joaquin Valley crop had a late start due to cool temperatures and
cainfall in the spring. Although development lagged the average all season,
beneficial weather caused good growth during the latter portion of July. Cotton
objective yield counts show Arizona with the sixth highest total fruit count
since 1985. Arizona large bolls were next to lowest and small bolls were
fourth lowest during this period: squares were the highest. California had the
Towest count of small and large bolls over the ten year period. Squares ranked
third.

In Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina),
sparse spring rains caused deteriorating conditions early in the season.
Conditions improved in June as Guif storms provided rainfall. However.
conditions worsened again in July, as Alabama showed 12 percent of the crop in
poor to fair condition, and 16 percent of the Georgia and North Carolina crops
were rated poor to fair. Boll development was ahead of normal in the region,
except for South Carolina, which showed boll set at 73 percent, 5 percent behind
average.

American-Pima production is forecast at 358.000 bales. up 6 percent from 1994.
Yield is indicated at 916 pounds per harvested acre, down 58 pounds from last
year. All States expect decreased yields. with Texas showing the largest

decrease of 142 pounds from one year ago. By early August, the Texas crop was
progressing normally after early season setbacks. Arizona pima emergence was

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-9 NASS, USDA


Tobacco:

Area Harvested, Yield. and Production by State and
United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Area Harvested

Production

stteee Acres -----
CT 1,600 1,760
FL 6,500 7,000
GA 37,000 44,000
IN 7,100 6,500
ky 187,000 172,700
MD 8,500 8,500
MA 490 460
MO 3,500 2,700
NC 243,200 267,100
OH 8.500 8,300
PA 9,000 7,900
sc 47,000 50,000
TN 60,350 56,940
VA 46,420 46,980
wv 2,000 2,000
WI 3,000 3,000

Crop Production
August 1995

--- Pounds ----
1,611 1,649
2,550 2,500
2.180 2,100
2,150 2,170
2.426 2,236
1,500 1,500
1,616 1,696
2,290 2,100
2,466 1,952
2.160 1,800
2.040 2,035
2,300 2,200
2,192 1,893
2,285 2,101
1,775 1.700
1,970 1,950

A-31

2,533
18,673
96.320
17,415
455,080
12,255
738
4,760
608,415
18,900
18.260
110,760
139,423
99,544
3,600

6,643

1,613,319

2,578
16,575
80,660
15,265
453,687
12,750
792
8,015
599,833
18,360
18,360
108,100
132,289
106,092
3,550

5,910

1,582,816

2,902
17,500
92,400
14,105
386,120
12,750
780
5,670
521,270
14,940
16,080
110,000
107,809
98,691
3,400

5,850

1,410,267

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Selected Crops: Area Planted by State 1995,
and United States, 1993-95

Other
Soybeans Sorghum Spring Durum
Wheat Wheat
1,000 Acres
230 12
100
3,350 200
70
260 45
235
30
330 56
580
*9,700 *180
*5,200
9.200
2,100 *3,100
1.100 *20
1,080 60
550
1,500
6,000 2,200 10
1,950 50
*4,750 580
3.709 300
*3.000 *1.200
120
220
NC : 900 *1,100 30
NO : *700 *650 *8,300 *2,800
OH : 3,350 4,100
OK + 150 *300 310
OR : 42 120
PA : 1,380 320
RI : 3
sc : 300 550 15
SD : *2,800 *2,450 300 1,200 35
TN : 660 1,130 20
1x : 2,250 220 2,500
UT : 7 68 28
VT : 90
VA : 450 510
WA : 150 450
WV 65
wi 3.600 830 10
WY 70 30
Year United States
1993 73,235 60,135 9,882 18,340 2,241
1994 79,158 61,940 9,772 18,324 2,850
1995 71,308 62,585 9,112 16,671 3,315
* Updated from “Acreage” released June 30, 1995.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-8 NASS, USDA


Cotton:

and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1

us 13.

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, 1952te-

- 1,000 Acres a

455.0 615.0
312.0 354.0
970.0 1,000.0
.095.0 1,195.0
68.0 109.0
875.0 2,490.0
1.2 2.0
890.0 1,010.0
.270.0 1,460.0
345.0 415.0
$0.0 $1.0
485.0 780.0
340.0 325.0
223.0 335.0
585.0 665.0
.150.0 §,700.0
41.7 107.0
155.9 15,613.0
47.9 47.5
80.8 95.0
10.7 18.0
27.0 30.0
166.4 187.5
455.0 615.0
359.9 401.5
970.0 1,000.0
.175.8 1,290.0
68.0 109.0
875.0 1.490.0
1.2 2.0
890.0 1,010.0
.270.0 1,460.0
345.0 415.0
60.7 66.0
485.0 780.0
340.0 325.0
223.0 335.0
585.0 665.0
.177.0 5,730.0
41.7 107.0
322.3 15,.800.5

806

098

875
942

974

550

139
826 1,
165 2,

691
677
408

808 1,
819 1,

729
781
615
325
759
664

446 5,

700

660 15,

788

036

800
800

916

550

097
826 1,
155 3.

691
677
408

808 1.

469.
790.
094.
918.
77.
733.
Q.
105.
550.
376.
78.
429,
270.
204.
545.
095.
30.

764,

87.
214,
18.
49,

369.

469,
877.
094,
132,

HD KOOCSCBOVOCOMNOAMNDOS

&B RFPODSDDOODOONOMOGCOSG

wo OURO

NS SEDDSOCOCONODDOOOR

ao e000

SM SCODDSCDCOOONOCOODOOR

1/ Production ginned
2/ 480-1b net weight

Crop Production

August 1995

and to be ginned.
bales.

A-22

Agricultural

.000 Bales 2
726.0 705
782.0 840
1,772.0 1,720
2,717.0 2,900
104.1 157
1,537.0 2.100
1.2 1
1,512.0 1.700
2,132.0 2,490
615.0 630
75.0 83
829.0 1,000
247.0 220
393.0 530
885.0 920
4,915.0 5,300
82.0 156
19,324.3 21,452.
80.4 78
184.8 205
19.5 25
53.0 50
337.7 358.
726.0 705.
862.4 918
1,772.0 1,720
2,901.8 3,105
104.1 157
1,537.0 2.100
1.2 1
1,512.0 1,700
2,132.0 2,490
615.0 630
94.5 108
829.0 1,000
247.0 220
393.0 530
885.0 920
4,968.0 §,350
82.0 156
19,662.0 21,810
Statistics
NASS,

Board
USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative

w&

Apples. Commercial.......... cece e cece e ee
Area Planted, By States
Acreage Changes, Special Summary
Barley
Beans, Dry Edible..

NYP WKH

Crop Moisture Map... .. eee cc eee eee eee
Crop Summary .

Drought Severity Map.
Ginger Root........
Grapes
Hay, All
Hay. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures.

a

PeeR

Papayas-Hawaii...
Peaches
Peanuts For Nuts.
Pears...........
Prunes & Plums
Reliability..... . . .
Rice........., see eeeee
Rice, By Class..
Sorghum For Grain
Soybeans For Beans.
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane For Sugar & Seed.
Tobacco, By Class and Type.
Tobacco, By States.........
Wheat, All.......
Wheat, by Class.
Wheat, Ourum
Wheat, Other Spring wee wee
Wheat, Winter. 0... eee eee e teenies

Pe
DOIVAWONBHNNOGENH

'

WWHEOWWEWNHNYNWW
DYVOHGHEHONONVSONLOH BVISOHM AAW DIUDBDODNYOHHENOYUBDEROOH

Pen

WMBWDMMBBDMVIDVVDOW

DOW WoO
ree
PMH OM

rPrYrrrr>rrrrrrr FrPrPrrrrrrrrrrwarwmarrrrrrrryp

PEE EE ONwwneere

Dow
ara

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 8-19 NASS, USDA


Special Nine State Acreage Update

Growers were experiencing planting delays during the period May 30 to June 13,
1995. when NASS conducted the major 1995 acreage surveys. The surveys indicated
that 11 percent of the estimated 72.0 million acres of corn had not been planted
at the time of the interview and 48 percent of the estimated 63.1 million acres of
soybeans had not been planted. Most of these unplanted acres were in 9 States
which were subsequently targeted for an acreage update survey conducted in late
July and early August.

In the 9 States. all farms that had reported planting intentions for corn,
soybeans, and sorghum in the area frame survey were recontacted to determine what
was actually planted. In addition, the objective measurement surveys for corn and
soybeans and the monthly agricultural yield surveys, conducted between July 22 and
August 4, were augmented to provide additional measures of planted and harvested
acreages.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-39 NASS. -USDA


Special Summary of Acreage Changes

IL 10,200 10,200 9.900 10,000
IN 5,300 5,300 5,150 5,200
IA 12,000 11,800 11.700 11.500
KS 2,200 2,150 2,000 1.950
MO 1.650 1,450 1,400 1,350
NE 8,200 8.100 7,850 7,800
ND 750 700 400 400
OH 3,350 3.350 3,150 3,150
So 2,900 2,800 2,450 2,300
9 Sts 46.550 45,850 44,000 43.650
Soybeans
IL 9.900 9,700 9,850 9,650
IN 5,100 5,200 5,080 5.180
IA 9,200 9,200 9,150 9,150
KS 2,100 2,100 2,050 2,050
MO 4,800 4,750 4,750 4.700
NE : 2,900 3,000 2,860 2,960
ND : 660 650 650 630
OH : 4,100 4,100 4,080 4,080
SO : 2,800 2,450 2,750 2,400
9 Sts : 41,560 41,150 41.220 40,800
Sorghum

IL 250 180 230 170
IA

IN

KS 3.300 3.100 3,100 2.900
MO 580 580 550 §50
NE 1,250 1,200 1,100 1.050
NO

OH

So 300 300 190 180
9 Sts 5,680 5.360 5.170 4,850
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-40 NASS, USDA


Table grape production is expected to total 640.000 tons, unchanged from last
month and up 6 percent from last year. Picking of Perlette and Flame Seediess
varieties is active in the San Joaquin Valley with good quality reported. Wine
type production is 2.2 million tons, 4 percent below last month and 3 percent
below 1994. Growers are concerned about mildew and sunburn. Harvest in the
Central Valley is expected to begin by mid-August.

Grape production in Washington is 306.000 tons, 36 percent above last year.
Warm temperatures are helping to ripen the crop. Good wine grape quality is
reported. Michigan forecasts 70,000 tons. an increase of 8 percent from 1994.
Yield potential is excellent with above normal temperatures following
pollination and adequate water supplies. Production in New York is forecast at
175,000 tons. down 8 percent from iast year. No disease threats are reported at
this time, but rain is needed for a good crop. Pennsylvania expects to produce
70,000 tons. a decrease of 13 percent from the previous year. Weather
conditions varied throughout the state with some growers reporting small berry
sizes and powdery mildew problems.

Ginger Root: Hawaii ginger root production is estimated at 5.80 million pounds

for the 1994-95 season, down 3 percent from the previous season,
Disease continued to hamper production in major growing areas in the eastern
half of Hawaii island. Average yields. however, increased from 40,000 to
43,000 pounds per acre, an indication that improved cultural practices have
helped. Acres harvested declined to 135 acres, down 10 percent from the
Previous season. The reduction in harvested acreage was the result of fewer
growers planting ginger root because of the presence of disease.

Florida Citrus: Citrus groves, trees, and new crop fruit were all in very good

condition through most of July. The first part of the month
was very hot and dry in most counties, Afternoon rains were common the last
half of July. New crop fruit size was normal for the end of July. Most oranges
were golf ball size or larger and grapefruit were generally baseball size. Most
of the temples and tangelos were larger than golf balls. Tangerines were smaller
than golf balls. There was an abundance of new foliage on trees of all ages as a
result of near ideal growing conditions during the last few weeks of the month.
Caretakers were actively cutting cover crops. spraying, fertilizing, and
removing dead trees.

Hurricane Erin moved across the state on August 1-2. The storm entered the
state near Vero Beach in Indian River County and moved west northwest through
Osceola, south Orange, northern Polk, and exited into the Gulf just north of
Tampa. Erin was downgraded to a tropical storm over Osceola County when winds
dropped below 74 mph. Rain and wind covered all citrus growing areas except the
extreme lower counties of Hendry and Collier with rainfall amounts and strength
of winds varying. Initial reports and observations indicated very limited loss
of grapefruit in Indian River and Brevard counties only. Virtually no loss was
observed on oranges. Rainfall was not excessive. Amounts varied with up to

4 inches reported. Rainfall was heavier in isolated areas after the storm.
Standing water in groves and ditches was moved quickly and no affects are
expected on trees or fruit.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-15 NASS, USDA


All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1. 1995

Area Harvested Yield Production
State :-------- 0-22 eee ee eee rere nner errr ree

1994 1995 1994: 1995 1993 : 1994 1995

1,000 Acres -- TONS --- www nee 1,000 Tons -------
AL 750 720 2.70 2.10 1.440 2.025 1,512
AZ 35 30 3.60 3.80 126 126 114
AR 1,100 1,025 2.20 2.20 2,300 2,420 2,255
CA 520 650 3.00 2.90 1,242 1,560 1.885
co 490 580 1.60 1.70 963 784 986
CT 59 55 2.05 1.60 90 121 88
OE 10 9 3.50 2.70 26 35 24
FL 240 230 3.10 2.80 650 744 644
GA 650 600 3.00 2.80 1.140 1,950 1,680
ID 230 300 2.00 1.90 644 460 570
IL 450 400 2.00 2.50 1,104 900 1,000
IN 300 400 2.60 2.80 962 780 1,120
JA 500 400 2.30 2.50 850 1,150 1,000
KS 1,650 1,650 1.70 2,00 3.200 2,805 3,300
KY 1,950 2,100 2.20 2.40 4,416 4,290 5,040
LA 290 300 2,80 2.20 672 812 660
ME 195 180 1.85 1.90 315 361 342
MD 140 165 2.80 2.60 348 392 429
MA 77 80 1.80 1.70 115 139 136
MI 350 350 2.20 2.30 750 770 805
MN 700 850 2.30 2.10 1,170 1,610 1,785
MS 750 750 2.50 2.20 1,728 1,875 1,650
MO 2.900 2,850 1.90 1.95 5.850 5,510 5,558
MT 650 850 1.50 1.60 1,326 975 1,360
NE 1,900 1,800 1.25 1.15 2,563 2.375 2,070
NV 230 250 1.60 1.70 351 368 425
NH 60 60 2.05 1,90 98 123 114
NJ 90 100 1,80 1.60 162 162 160
NM 70 75 2.10 2.00 133 147 150
NY 1,040 1,100 2.05 1.80 1,890 2,132 1,980
NC 490 510 2.30 2.30 675 1,127 1,173
ND 1,350 1,300 1.30 1.40 1,813 1,755 1,820
OH 620 550 2.60 2.70 1.200 1,612 1,485
OK 1,880 2,000 1.60 1.60 3,060 3,008 3,200
OR 600 650 2.00 2.10 1,302 1,200 1,365
PA 1,120 1.130 1.90 2.00 2,090 2.128 2,260
RI 6 § 2.15 1.80 11 13 9
S¢ 250 290 2.60 2.10 414 650 609
SD 1,600 1,700 1.30 1.50 2,210 2,080 2,550
TN 1,650 1,650 2.20 2.20 3,280 3,630 3,630
TX 3,500 3.600 2.30 2.20 7,140 8,050 7,920
UT 160 150 2.00 2.20 330 320 330
VT 220 225 1.90 1.80 391 418 405
VA 1,060 1,100 1.80 2.20 2,140 1,908 2,420
WA 240 260 2.40 2.60 675 576 676
WV 500 510 1.90 1.80 931 950 918
wi 400 400 2.00 1.60 1,200 800 640
wy 500 650 1.20 1.60 1,008 600 1,040
us 34,522 35.589 1.99 2.00 66,494 68,726 71,292
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-28 NASS, USDA


For example, the “Root Mean Square Error” for the August 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 8.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 ovt of 3 that
the current production forecast of 8.12 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 8.7 percent or approximately 707 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 15.0 percent or approximately 1.22 million bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the August 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the August 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 425 million bushels, ranging
from 56 million to 1,079 million bushels. The August 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 7 times and above 3 times. This does not imply that the
August 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
Production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of August 1 Crop Production Forecasts

:Root Mean Square Error:: 10-year Record of
Lrscerste ress cecce cece :: Differences Between Forecast
:90% Confidence and Final Estimate
Crop and : : Level :
Unit :Percent: ----+--------- Quantity :No. of Years
:Percent: Quant : : Below: Above
I : :: Avg:Small:Large:Final:Final
Feed Grains 1/ Mt: 7.9 7 3
Corn For Grain Bu: 8.7 7 3
Sorghum For Grain Bu: 7.8 6 4
Oats Bu: 7.5 2 8
Barley Bu: 5.5 5 5
All Wheat Bu: 2.6 3 7
Winter Bu: 1.1 2 8
Durum Bu: 9.3 4 6
Other Spring Bu: 8.4 4 6
Rice Cwt: 4.6 8 2
Soybeans For :
Beans Bu: 6.3 7 3
Cotton Bales 2/: 7.7 5 5
Dry Edible :
Beans Cwt: 8.3 3 7
1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats, and barley.
2/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 B-18 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production

Crop and Unit «=: -- enn een eer nee ene ee eee ere rere erent eee e eee

: Juli, : Aug 2,

1994 1995 : 1994 1995 1995
sr ttc tees eee 1,000 -------------
Corn Bu : 138.6 125.6 10,103,030 8,121,520
Sorghum "+ 73.0 65.1 655,021 538,559
Oats 57.2 57.3 229,857 181,508 186,167
Barley 56.2 59.9 374,862 378,691 384, 687
All Wheat 37.6 36.6 2,320,610 2.188.049 2,227,422

Winter 40.2 37.6 1,661,043 1,529,950 1,552,230

Durum 35.5 35.0 97,347 112,141 113,774

Other Spring "2 31.8 34.4 562,220 545,958 561.418
Rice 1/ Cwt : 5,964 5,954 197,779 185,228
Soybeans for Beans Bu : 41.9 36.4 2,558,317 2,245,901
Peanuts for Nuts Lb : 2.624 2,512 4,247,455 3.877.900
All Cotton 1/ Bale: 708 663 19,662.0 21,810.7

Upland 1/ “oy 705 660 19,324.3 21,452.7

Amer-Pima 1/ “oo 974 916 337.7 358.0
Cottonseed Ton : 7,603.9 8,407.7
All Hay "2.56 2.61 150,124 157,374

Alfalfa “> 3,36 3.49 81,398 86,082

All Other “3 1,99 2.00 68.726 71,292
Ory Edible Beans 1/ Cwt : 1,582 1,649 29,187 32,078
Tobacco 2/ Lb : 2,358 2.056 1,582,816 1,410,267
Sugarbeets Ton: 22.2 20.2 31,994 28.888
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed "2 33.0 31.6 30,929 29,187
Hops Lb : 1,758 1,748 74 ,559.6 75,972.0
Apples. Comm’ “oy 11,335,500 11,185,500
Peaches "oo 2,506,500 2.487,700 2,492,700
Pears Ton : 1,046.2 963.3
Grapes "oy 5,870.6 5,772.5
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) “oo: 38.1 25.0
Olives " 84.0 85.0
1/ Yield in pounds.

2/ 1994 revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-4 NASS, USDA


Other Spring Wheat: Acreage for grain is now forecast at 16.3 million acres,

down 1 percent from July and down 8 percent from 1994. The
acreage change is a reduction in North Dakota that resulted from the follow-up
survey of late planted crops. Both planted and harvested were reduced 100,000
acres. The U.S. planted number is now 16.7 million acres, 9 percent less than
last year.

Once again, diseases are present in the Red River Valley, with Minnesota hurt
more than neighboring States. Head numbers in Minnesota, are slightly above
average, but the forecast weight per head is the lowest since 1988. Montana
head counts are above average; head weight is about average. Forecasted head
numbers in the Dakota's are a little above average, while the head weight
forecasts are more ordinary.

Both Idaho and Washington increased yields by 2.0 bushels per acre. Maturity is
about normal for Idaho. Timely rains improved Washington's prospects.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.88 billion paunds, down 9 percent from
last year’s crop but 14 percent above the drought reduced 1993 crop.

Harvested area, at 1.54 million acres. is 5 percent below last year. Yields are

expected to average 2,512 pounds per acre, 112 pounds below last year but

504 pounds above the 1993 level. Ory conditions have limited development in

much of the commercial peanut belt. August weather will be critical as the crop

Matures and requires adequate soil moisture.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.28 billion pounds, down 11 percent from last
year. Expected acreage for harvest in the Southeast, at 911,500 acres. is

6 percent below 1994. Yields in the four-State area are expected to average
2,506 pounds per acre, 132 pounds below the 1994 level. July brought hot and
dry conditions to Georgia, limiting yield prospects and dropping crop potential.
An occasional shower kept much of the crop, especially in major parts of the
peanut belt, from deteriorating much below a fair rating. Disease and weeds are
on the rise. In Alabama, the crop rated at fair to good with short soi}
moisture reported in about half the producing counties. Leafspot control was
good, but insect pressure was high in Some areas. The peanut crop in Florida is
making good progress. Hurricane Erin caused some flooding when it crossed the
western Panhandle on August 3. The flooding should not cause much damage if the
fields can dry out. Harvest is expected to begin in late August. South
Carolina peanuts steadily improved during July and were rated in good condition.
Favorable weather with intermittent showers provided sufficient moisture for
adequate crop development.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 663 million pounds, down

15 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 242,000 acres,
1,000 acres less than 1994. Yield per harvested acre, at 2,738 pounds declined
458 pounds from last year. The crop is currently in fair to good condition but
is under stress from hot, dry weather.

The Southwest crop production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to
total 931 million pounds, up 1 percent from 918 million pounds last year. If
realized, Oklahoma and Texas will set record high yields of 2.700 pounds and
2,300 pounds. respectively. Regional acreage for harvest. at 390.000 acres,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-7 NASS, USDA


acre from the objective yield models also indicate a record number of ears per
acre, but due the lateness of the crop the number of ears could vary more than
normal. As of July 30, only 58 percent of the acreage was reported silking in
the 17 major corn States, this compares with 89 percent last year and 69 percent
for the 1990-4 average.

As of July 30. 70 percent of the Iowa corn crop was reported in good to
excellent condition compared with 98 percent a year earlier. Only 60 percent
was reported silking this year compared with 96 percent last year. The
Objective Yield models indicate record stalk and ear counts this year.

The Illinois corn crop was reported 49 percent good to excellent compared with
84 percent a year earlier. By the end of July 72 percent of the crop was
silking compared to 97 percent a year earlier and a 1990-4 average of

87 percent. The survey indications point to record high stalk and ear
populations in Illinois.

The Minnesota corn crop is developing well ahead of average, but is also well
behind last year. Sixty-five percent of the crop was silking at the end of
July. compared with 84 percent a year earlier and a 1990-4 average of

45 percent. Early season stalk and ear counts are at record high levels.

The Nebraska corn crop was reported 50 percent good to excellent compared with
92 percent last year. Nebraska has been too wet, too dry, and too hot during
the current growing season.

Sorghum for Grain: The first 1995 production forecast is 539 million bushels.

down 18 percent from 1994 but up 1 percent from 1993. Area
for grain is forecast at 8.28 million acres, down 8 percent from last year to
the lowest level since 1953. The harvested acreage changed from the June
“Acreage” report because of reductions based on the July follow-up verification
of late planted crops. The U.S. all planted area is now 9.11 million acres, down
7 percent from last year. This is the smallest sorghum planted area since 1929.
Based on August 1 conditions, yields are forecast at 65.1 bushels per acre, down
7.9 bushels from tast year’s record high.

Aggregate condition ratings of this year’s crop are fair to good as of August 1.
Development trails average progress in most States: Texas is the notable
exception. Harvest has moved into the Texas Blacklands and is 50 percent
complete overall. The South Carolina harvest is underway. Moisture is short in
some parts of South Dakota: New Mexico's crop needs rain. Louisiana’s sorghum
is ripening at a pace equa? to last year. Hail damaged some fields in southwest
Oklahoma.

Oats: Production of oats for 1995 is forecast at 186 million bushels, up

3 percent from July but 19 percent below the 1994 crop. If realized.
this.would be the lowest oat production since records were first kept in 1866.
The forecasted yield, at 57.3 bushels per acre, is up 1.4 bushels from July and
0.1 of a bushel above the 1994 crop. Area for harvest and to be harvested, at
3.25 million acres, is unchanged from July, but is down 19 percent from the
4.02 million acres harvested in 1994, and also the least since 1866.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-5 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States. 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production

1994 : 1995 : 1994

dull

1.000 Acres ~~~ ---- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels ---
AL 1/ : 95 80 48.0 36.0 36.0 4.560 2,880
AZ 1/ : 122 122 91.7 86.4 86.4 11,186 10,538
AR 1/ : 880 1,000 46.0 48.0 48.0 40.480 48.000
CA 1/ : 569 508 78.0 70.1 70.1 44,365 35.636
co 1 2,592 2,742 30.8 36.6 38.5 79,734 105,666
DE 1/ : 70 67 54.0 60.0 60.0 3,780 4,020
FL 1/ : 15 13 42.0 32.0 32.0 630 416
GA 1/ : 400 300 51.0 38.0 38.0 20,400 11,400
1D > 1,410 1,330 71.1 71.4 73.4 100,280 97,650
IL : 900 1,390 56.0 47.0 49.0 50.400 68,110
IN : 630 660 61.0 61.0 61.0 38.430 40.260
IA 1/ t 45 45 47.0 40.0 40.0 2,115 1,800
KS : 11,400 10,800 38.0 28.0 27.0 433,200 291,600
KY : 420 460 60.0 53.0 53.0 25,200 24,380
LA 1/ : 70 80 37.0 36.0 36.0 2,590 2,880
MD 1/ : 220 225 55.0 56.0 56.0 12,100 12,600
MI : 580 600 53.0 55.0 60.0 30.740 36,000
MN : 2,872 2,193 28.0 30.0 30.0 71,948 65,790
MS 1/ : 160 170 40.0 35.0 35.0 6,400 5,950
MO : 1,100 1,200 45.0 38.0 39.0 49,500 46.800
MT : 5,378 5.395 31.7 35.0 37.2 170.590 200,540
NE > 2,100 2,100 34.0 38.0 41.0 71.400 86,100
NV 1/ : 9 11 74.4 85.0 85.0 670 935
NJ 1/ : 32 32 42.0 52.0 52.0 1,344 1,664
NM 1/ : 230 150 24.0 22.0 22.0 5,520 3.300
NY 1/ : 115 125 53.0 49.0 49.0 6,095 6,125
NC : §20 680 49.0 42.0 42.0 30.380 28.560
ND : 11,238 = 10,988 31.7 31.3 32.0 356,404 351,654
OH : 1,180 1,210 58.0 59.0 61.0 68,440 73,810
OK : 5,300 5,250 27.0 21.0 21.0 143,100 110,250
OR : 928 934 63.1 65.2 66.9 58,580 62,530
PA 1/ : 165 185 48.0 51.0 51.0 7,920 9,435
SC l/ : 360 280 50.0 30.0 30.0 18,000 8,400
So > 3,353 2,693 28.4 33.2 33.6 95,278 90,504
TN 1/ : 300 350 50.0 46.0 46.0 15,000 16,100
x : 2,900 3.150 26.0 26.0 26.0 75,400 81,900
UT 1/ : 172 166 40.8 47.9 47.9 7,012 7,948
VA 1/ : 250 275 56.0 58.0 58.0 14,000 15,950
WA > 2,545 2,595 52.7 53.6 65.6 134,000 144,280
wy 1/ : 10 11 55.0 52.0 52.0 550 572
WI 1/ : 139 139 57.1 50.0 50.0 7,940 6,954
wy 1/ : 197 215 25.1 35.0 35.0 4,949 7,535
US : 61,771 60,919 37.6 35.9 36.6 2,320,610 2,227,422

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-15 NASS, USDA


Reliability of August 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between July 22 and August 2 to gather information on
expected yield as of August 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat. corn,
soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually
account for approximately 80 percent of the U.S. production. Farm operators
were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and to seek
permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected fields (corn, cotton,
and soybeans). The items counted within the selected plots depend on the crop
and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded
along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of
heads, ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar
data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The five-year
average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are
revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and
weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot
is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 30.000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield and in the
case of late planted crops, acreage questions were asked to measure changes in
intentions since the mid-year survey.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
August 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The August 1 production forecast will not be revised: instead

@ new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season, At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a balance
sheet are utilized using carryover stocks. production, exports. processing,
feeding. and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships
warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are
Subject to revision August 1 if conditions altered the planting intentions since
the mid-year survey. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production
forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area
has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the August 1

production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
August 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage
of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
1975-1994 20-year period is computed then the square root of the average becomes
Statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.“ Probability statements can be made
concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final
end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s forecast are
not different from those influencing recent years.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-17 NASS, USDA



Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

1994 1995 : 1994 :-----eeeee eee eee eee : 1994: 1995

1,000 Acres 1,000 Bushels
AZ 1/ : 94 99 91.0 86.0 86.0 8.554 8,514
CA 1/ : 59 68 95.0 97.0 97.0 5,605 6,596
MN : 35 10 25.0 30.0 30.0 875 300
MT : 178 295 30.0 32.0 32.0 5,340 9,440
ND : 2,350 2,750 32.5 32.0 32.0 76,375 88,000
SO : 23 33 26.0 27.0 28.0 598 924
us 3,255 35.5 35.0 35.0 97,347 113,774

l/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production

1,000 Acres ss ------= Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels --
co 1i/ : 42 42 77.0 73.0 73.0 3.234 3,066
1D : 620 560 70.0 72.0 74.0 43,400 41,440
MN : 2,500 2,150 28.0 30.0 30.0 70,000 64,500
MT > 3.350 3,600 30.0 34.0 36.0 100.500 129,600
NV I/: 4 7 55.0 85.0 85.0 220 595
ND : 8,850 8,200 31.5 31.0 32.0 278,775 262.400
OR 1/ : 58 114 50.0 45.0 45.0 2,900 5,130
SD : 1,980 1,150 26.0 27.0 28.0 51,480 32,200
UT 1/ : 22 26 46.0 58.0 58.0 1,012 1,508
WA : 246 445 40.0 42.0 44.0 9,800 19,580
WI l/s: 9 9 30.0 36.0 36.0 270 324
WY 1/ : 7 25 37.0 43.0 43.0 629 1,075
US : 17,697 = 16,328 31.8 33.2 34.4 562,220 561.418

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

1994 and Forecasted August 1

1995

Area Planted and Harvested, United States.

(Domestic Units)

1,000 Acres
Corn : 79,158 71,308 72,917 64,682
Sorghum : 9,772 9,112 8.967 8,276
Oats : 6,644 6.438 4,020 3,247
Barley : 7,159 6.796 6,667 6,418
All Wheat 70,421 69,325 61,771 60,919
Winter 49.247 49,339 41,335 41,336
Durum : 2,850 3,315 2,739 3,255
Other Spring 18,324 16,671 17,697 16,328
Rice 3,353.0 3,165.0 3.316.0 3,111.0
Soybeans 61,940 62,585 61,129 61.716
Peanuts 1,641.0 1,565.0 1,618.5 1,543.5
All Cotton 13.720.1 16,650.0 13,322.3 15,800.5
Upland 13,551.6 16,460.0 13,155.9 15,613.0
Amer -Pima 168.5 190.0 166.4 187.5
All Hay 58.744 60,228
Alfalfa 24,222 24,639
All Other 34,522 35,589
Dry Edible Beans 2,025.8 2,049.7 1,845.2 1,945.8
Tobacco 2/ 671.2 685.8
Sugarbeets 1,475.8 1,449.6 1,443.0 1,427.0
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed 936.8 924.2
Hops 42.4 43.5
1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop. je.. grain, beans, nuts, etc.

2/ 1994 revised.

Crop Summary:

Area Planted and Harvested.

United States. 1994-95 (Domestic Units)

Area Planted

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres
Rye 1,603 1,627 406 414
Sunflower 3,567 3,608 3,430 3.484
Flaxseed 178 213 171 206
Potatoes
Winter 12.9 12.8 12.3 12.6
Spring 91.6 88.6 90.4 86.8
Summer 95.5 72.5 92.0 70.5
Fall 1,213.9 1,220.0 1,182.1 1,199.9
Sweetpotatoes 86.1 87.0 82.8 83.6
1/ 1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production
August 1995

A-3

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Grapes: Total Production by Crop. State. and United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Grapes (Table Type) :
CA : 632.000 602,000 640,000

Grapes (Wine Type) :
CA : 2,397,000 2,265,000 2,200,000

Grapes (Raisin Type) 1/ :
CA : 2.354,000 2,386,000 2,250,000

All Grapes :
AZ : 24,000 26,000 25,000
AR : 8,000 6.000 8,000
CA : 5.383.000 5,253,000 5,090,000
GA : 3,600 3.200 3,400
MI : 55.000 65.000 70,000
40 : 2.350 2,600 2,600
NY : 118,000 190,000 175,000
NC : 1,500 1,500 1.800
OH : 6.800 7,000 9,200
OR : 12,300 10,800 11,000
PA : 54.000 80.000 70,000
Sc : 600 500 500
WA : 354,000 225,000 306.000
US 6,023,150 5.870.600 5.772.500

1/ Fresh basis.

Ginger Root: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production,
Hawaii 1993-95

Yield : Production

1993: 1994: 1995: 1993: 1994: 1995

vereeee Pounds ------- --- 1,000 Pounds ---
HI: 360 150 135 27.500 40.000 43.000 9.900 6.000 5,800
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-38 NASS. USDA


All Hay: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Area Harvested Yield : Production
State .----------- 2-22-22 eee eee ee ener ree renee eee terete ee

1994 1995 1994: 1995 : 1993 1994 1995

1,000 Acres --- Tons --- =----- 1,000 Tons -------
AL : 750 720 2.70 2.10 1,440 2,025 1,512
AZ : 195 205 6.80 7.39 1,236 1,326 1,514
AR : 21,125 1,050 2.23 2.23 2,390 2,505 2.343
CA : 1,470 1,700 5.59 §.31 7,590 8.210 9,025
co > 1,330 1,430 3.05 2.77 4,193 4,060 3.961
CT : 83 75 2.30 1.79 138 191 134
DE : 15 13 4.07 3.31 45 61 43
FL : 240 230 3.10 2.80 650 744 644
GA : 650 600 3.00 2.80 1,140 1,950 1,680
10 : 1,250 1,400 3.55 3.39 4,844 4,438 4,750
IL 1,100 1,050 2.89 3.43 4,106 3,175 3.600
IN 650 680 3.25 3.29 2,282 2.110 2,240
1A 1,750 1,850 3.30 3.68 4,803 §,775 6,800
KS 2,450 2,500 2.42 2.61 6,430 5,925 6,530
KY : 2,250 2,390 2.40 2.59 5,526 5,400 6.200
LA : 290 300 2.80 2.20 672 812 660
ME : 213 195 1.91 1.93 368 406 377
MD : 200 220 3.34 3.08 550 668 677
MA : 106 105 2.05 1.90 186 217 199
MI > 1,400 1.400 3.48 3.43 5.370 4,865 4,795
MN 2,300 2,275 3.27 3.04 5.970 7,530 6,915
MS 750 750 2.50 2.20 1,728 1,875 1,650
MO 3.350 3,350 2.02 2.06 7,335 6,770 6,908
MT 2,200 2,500 2.06 2.19 4,806 4,540 5.485
NE : 3.300 3,150 2.25 2.16 7,323 7,415 6,795
NV : 470 490 2.98 3.02 1,385 1,400 1,481
NH : 79 78 2.06 1.92 135 163 150
NJ : 120 130 2.28 2.08 231 273 271
NM : 330 335 4.54 4.72 1,434 1,499 1,580
NY > 1,660 1,700 2.39 2.05 3.605 3.961 3,480
NC 510 530 2.33 2.33 718 1,187 1,235
ND 2,800 2.800 1.61 2.04 5,043 4,510 5,720
OH 1,280 1,300 3.43 3.33 3.475 4,384 4,335
OK 2,200 2,400 1.88 1.88 4.248 4,128 4,520
OR 1,010 1,100 2.81 2.96 3,066 2,840 3,255
PA 1,920 1,910 2.36 2.41 4,352 4,528 4,600
RI 8 7 2.25 2.00 15 18 14
Sc 250 290 2.60 2.10 414 650 609
SD 4,100 4,100 1.79 2.26 8,190 7,330 9,270
TN 1,700 1,700 2.23 2.22 3.478 3,795 3.780
TX 3,590 3.750 2.36 2.28 7,506 8.455 8,535
UT 685 695 3.69 3.85 2,530 2,525 2,674
VT : 325 315 2.00 1.83 603 649 576
VA : 1,200 1,240 1.95 2.30 2,491 2,342 2,854
WA : 710 760 3.92 4.24 2,835 2,785 3,226
WV : 550 550 2.02 1.87 1,059 1,110 1,030
WI : 2,700 2,600 2.43 2.28 6,260 6.550 5.920
WY > 1,130 1,310 1.81 2.15 2,608 2,049 2,822
US $8,744 60,228 2.56 2.61 146,799 150,124 187,374
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-26 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Production is forecast at 2.23 billion bushels, up 2 percent from
July 1, but 4 percent less than in 1994. Yields are now expected to
average 36.6 per acre, up 0.7 bushels from a month ago.

Winter Wheat: Production is forecast at 1.55 billion bushels. up 1 percent from

July but 7 percent less than the 1994 production. The yield
forecast is 37.6 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels from last month. Grain area
was unchanged. Harvested yields were better than expected for major Soft Red
Winter States. Farmers are reporting high yields in Colorado and the Nebraska
Panhandle. Prospects for better than expected yields exist in Montana and the
Pacific Northwest.

Other Spring Wheat: Production is forecast at 561 million bushels. 3 percent

. more than last month but slightly lower than last year.
Improved yield prospects in the Dakota’s and the Pacific Northwest have yields
at 34.4 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month's forecast. Estimated
acreage in North Dakota is down 100,000 acres from the previous estimate.

——- — ——

This report was approved on August 11, 1995, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Agricultural
Statistics Board.

(Lt Ue

Agricultural Statistics Board

Agriculture Chairperson
Richard E. Rominger Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-2 NASS, USDA


hampered by drying winds, cold temperatures, and rainfall. In the San Joaquin
Valley similar weather plus lygus and aphid pressure set the crop one to

two weeks behind normal development. Hot weather in July aided recovery to some
extent.

Ginnings totaled 16,650 running bales prior to August 1. compared with
112,900 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 9,450 running bales
in 1993.

Dry Edible Beans: Production of dry beans in 1995 is forecast at 32.1 million
cwt, up 10 percent from last year and 46 percent above

two years ago. Area for harvest, forecast at 1.95 million acres, is up

5 percent from a year ago and 20 percent above 1993. The average yield is

forecast at 1.649 pounds per acre. up 67 pounds from last year and 298 pounds

above 1993. Planted acreage is estimated at 2.05 million acres, up 1 percent

from a year ago and 9 percent above two years ago. The August 1 estimate of

planted acreage is 1 percent above the June 1 estimate but the estimate of

acreage harvested is down 1 percent because of weather damage.

A cool, wet spring delayed planting in most States, particularly in the West.
Crop development is late although recent hot weather has helped it to catch up.
Michigan's dry bean development is ahead of normal with expectations of a bumper
crop in the field, 42 percent larger than last year. Nebraska's growers indicate
a 28 percent increase in production as a hot July helped make up for a late
start. Growers in North Dakota said beans were 32 percent podded by August 1
compared with 68 percent last year. Minnesota and North Dakota account for much
of the shift to navy beans this year. Beans in Colorado and Idaho were hit by
frost in early June making their progress late. Acreage increased in California
with late plantings but yield potential is good.

Estimates of planted acres by class show the following changes from last year:
Navy beans were up 20 percent, great northern jumped 49 percent. garbanzo
acreage swelled 47 percent, blackeyes increased 28 percent, black beans gained
6 percent, and light red kidneys and cranberries were up 4 percent each.
Decreases are noted with a 10 percent reduction in pintos, small reds settled
32 percent lower, dark red kidneys fell 30 percent, pinks fell 18 percent, limas
combined for a 10 percent decrease, and small whites were off 4 percent.

All Hay: Production for 1995 is forecast at 157 million tons. up 5 percent from

1994. All hay yields are forecast at 2.61 tons per acre, a fractional
increase from one year earlier. Acreage for harvest of alfalfa and alfalfa
mixtures and other hays is unchanged from June report at 60.2 million acres. up
3 percent from the previous year. Production decreases occurred mainly in the
Northeast and Southeast where lack of moisture adversely affected potential. In
the northeast, many operators harvested fields as greenchop or haylage.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: U.S. production is forecast at 86.1 million tons,
up 6 percent from 1994. This increased
production resulted from a combination of higher yields and larger acreage.
Yields are expected to average 3.49 tons per acre, 0.13 of a ton above last
year. Harvested acres, at 24.6 million acres, are up 2 percent from 1994.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-10 NASS. USDA


Hops: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

--- Acres ---- ---- Pounds ---- ------- 1,000 Pounds ---------

ID : 4,037 4,000 1,527 1,440 5,444.7 6,164.6 5,760.0
OR : 8,000 8,641 1,715 1,600 11,850.0 13,720.0 13,826.0
WA : 30.375 30,812 1,800 1,830 58,849.0 54,675.0 56,386.0

US : 42,412 43,453 1,758 1,748 76,143.7 74,559.6 75,972.0

Olives: Total Production, California
1993-94 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Total Production

State «nen ene ener eee - ee eee ee eee eee ee ee eee eee eee
1993 1994 1995
Tons
CA 122,000 84.000 85,000
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-34 NASS, USDA


July Weather Summary: July 10-16 showcased the hottest weather in 4 years or

more across the central Plains and Corn Belt. and into
the Northeast. In terms of agriculture, the most serious conditions encompassed
the western Corn Belt, where highs on July 12-13 soared as high as 110 degrees
F. Ironically, planting delays from spring wetness left corn development far
behind normal in the hottest areas. Soybeans. however, appeared more
vulnerable, with a larger percentage of the crop in reproduction by mid-July.
Soothing rains arrived after mid-month in many areas of the Corn Belt. but
serious topsoil-moisture shortages persisted in an area centered on eastern
Nebraska. Although heat (95 to 100 degrees F) again stressed crops in the
western Corn Belt on July 27-29, the remainder of the Midwest enjoyed favorable
temperatures and widespread, but variable, rainfall.

Nearly continuous heat and scant rainfall described the month's weather in a
belt from the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic region.
The month ended with record-setting streaks of. 90-degree heat in progress in
Baltimore, MD (25 days. from July 12 - August 5: formerly 21 days, from

July 29 - August 18, 1988). Richmond, VA (27 days, from July 11 - August 6;
formerly 19 days. from July 3 - 21, 1993), and Raleigh, NC (24 days. from July
14 - August 6: formerly 19 days. from July 4 - 22, 1977). In addition,
Philadelphia, PA attained the 90-degree mark 21 times. tying their mark set in
1988, and experienced their second-hottest July (81.5 degrees F). behind only
1994. It was the hottest July on record in Baltimore (81.5 degrees F),
surpassing 1955. Several locations observed their driest July on record,
including Toledo, OH (0.34 inches), Bristol, TN (0.67 inches), and Knoxville, TN
(0.33 inches). Dryness also prevailed in the Southwest, where the summer “wet-
season” rains failed to materialize. July rainfall was more than 2 inches below
normal in Arizona at Flagstaff and Prescott. With hot weather and little
rainfall. drought intensified in the New Mexico Plains and areas of Texas
adjacent to Mexico. At month's end, however, Tropical Storm Dean made landfall
near Galveston, TX, spreading beneficial heavy rainfall inland as far as the
Texas-New Mexico border and easing topsoil-moisture shortages in northern Texas.

The second half of July featured drought-easing rains in parts of the Northeast,
though long-term moisture deficits persisted. Elsewhere across the North, the
same jet-stream energy that--with the exception of 1 week--kept heat at bay
across the Midwest also delivered above-normal precipitation. Nearly 9 inches
of rain pelted Grand Forks, ND during the month. Cold fronts driven southward
by jet-stream fluctuations supplied above-normal moisture to parts of the
central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Cool air in the wake of frontal
passages held temperatures as much as 4 degrees F below normal from the Great
Basin to the central High Plains. Eisewhere, the Florida Peninsula spent much
of the month underneath a sub-tropical moisture, contributing to heavy rainfall
and some flooding.

General Crop Comments: Hot summer weather prevailed over most of the Central
States during July with record-breaking temperatures
stressing crops and depleting soil moisture supplies. July started with
abundant soil moisture except for the Southeast. but soil moisture was short by
the end of the month. Late-planted row crops in the Midwest entered the
pollination stage after the heat-wave arrived. Crop development started July
behind the average and, despite significant progress due to the warm weather.
finished the month behind normal. The month concluded with heavy rains from

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-3 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type
State, and United States, 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

: Area Harvested Yield Production
Class and Type +n renee eee een renee nner renner e renee t terete eee
> 1994 1995 1994 1995 1994 1995
Acres Pounds 1,000 Pounds
Class 1, Flue-Cured
Type 11. Old
Belts
NC 74,000 82,000 2,440 2,000 180,560 164,000

VA : 345000 35:000 2.420 2,200 82,280 77,000
US + 108,000 117,000 2,434 2,060 262.840 241.000
Type 12. Eastern NC :
e

NC : 131,000 144,000 2,525 1,950 330.775 280,800
Type 13, NC Border & :

SC Belt
NC : 30,000 33,000 2,365 1,900 70,950 62.700
SC : 47,000 50,000 2,300 2,200 108,100 110.000
us : 77,000 83,000 2,325 2,081 179,050 172.700
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
L > 6,500 7,000 2,550 2,500 16,575 17,500
GA : $7,000 44.000 2,180 2,100 80,660 92,400
US : 43,500 51,000 2,235 2,155 97.235 109,900
Total 11-14 : 359,500 395,000 2,420 2.036 869.900 804,400

Class 2, Fire-Cured
Type 21, VA Belt

Type 22 22, Eastern

{st cict
: 4,100 3.700 2.660 2,700 10.906 9.990
"N : 8.100 7,800 2,570 2.400 20.817 18,720
US : 12.200 11,500 2.600 2,497 31.723 28.710
Type 23, Western :
District
KY 3,900 3.600 3,190 3,100 12,441 11,160
TN 630 590 2,800 2,600 1.764 1,534
US > 4,530 4,190 3.136 3.030 14,205 12,694
Total 21-23 > 18.080 16.890 2,673 2,558 48.331 43.204
Class 3, Air-Cured :
Class 3A. Light
Air-Cured
Type 31, Burley
N 7.100 6.500 2,150 2.170 15,265 14,105
kY 175,000 162.000 2.400 2.200 420.000 356,400
MO 3,500 2,700 2,290 2,100 8,015 5.670
NC 8,200 8,100 2,140 1.700 17,548 13.770
OH 8,500 8,300 2,160 1,800 18,360 14,940
TMN 51,000 48,000 2,125 1,800 108,375 86.400
VA 11,000 10.700 1,935 1,850 21,285 19,795
WV 000 2,000 1,775 1,700 3.550 3.400
US 266.300 248.300 2,300 2,072 612.398 514,480
Type 32. Southern MD
e
MD : 8,500 8,500 1,500 1,500 12,750 12,750
PA : 3,600 3,400 1,950 1,950 7,020 6.630
US : 12,100 11,900 1,634 1,629 19,770 19,380
Total 31-32 : 278.400 260,200 2,271 2,052 632,168 533.860
-- continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

August 1995 A-29 NASS. USDA


Oats: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production by State
and United States. 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- -- 1,000 Bushels --
AL 1/ t 33 25 55.0 40.0 40.0 1,815 1,000
AR 1/ : 20 15 77.0 85.0 85.0 1,540 1,275
CA : 35 30 80.0 85.0 85.0 2,800 2,550
co L 24 35 60.0 58.0 62.0 1,440 2,170
GA 1/ : 50 40 67.0 50.0 50.0 3,350 2,000
1D : 20 20 65.0 68.0 73.0 1,300 1,460
IL : 90 80 61.0 60.0 63.0 §.490 5,040
IN I 35 30 53.0 62.0 62.0 1,855 1,860
IA : 430 300 62.0 55.0 60.0 26,660 18,000
KS : 120 85 46.0 40.0 45.0 5.520 3,825
ME : 26 25 70.0 70.0 60.0 1.820 1,500
MD 1/ : 6 5 45.0 66.0 66.0 270 330
MI : 110 90 §7.0 57.0 57.0 6.270 5,130
MN : 450 375 §5.0 50.0 53.0 24.750 19,875
MO : 34 27 §2.0 45.0 47.0 1,768 1,269
MT : 75 75 48.0 52.0 58.0 3.600 4,350
NE : 150 140 50.0 47.0 50.0 7,500 7.000
NY : 110 1210 64.0 60.0 60.0 7,040 6.600
NC : 40 30 65.0 70.0 60.0 2,600 1,800
ND : 550 450 61.0 65.0 65.0 33.550 29,250
OH : 120 100 56.0 69.0 71.0 6,720 7,100
OK : 30 30 37.0 39.0 39.0 1,110 1,170
OR : 45 35 100.0 93.0 100.0 4,500 3.500
PA : 160 160 $3.0 60.0 62.0 8.480 9.920
Sc 1/ : 40 35 71.0 47.0 47.0 2,840 1.645
SO : 560 240 56.0 53.0 53.0 31.360 12,720
TM : 130 170 40.0 44.0 44.0 5,200 7,480
UT 1/ : 8 11 75.0 78.0 78.0 600 858
WA : 20 4 58.0 75.0 80.0 1,160 1.120
wy 1/ : 5 5 45.0 50.0 50.0 225 250
WI 470 420 54.0 52.0 52.0 25,380 21,840
wy 24 40 56.0 59.0 57.0 1,344 2,280
US 4,020 3,247 57.2 55.9 57.3 229.857 186.167

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-13 NASS, USDA


Record high yields are expected in Arizona, Kentucky. and Washington.
Beneficial weather led to increased production in the Southwest. Northwest,- the
Dakotas, Illinois, Iowa, and Oklahoma. Decreases are expected in Colorado.
Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of the northeastern States.

All Other Hay: The forecast for 1995 production is 71.3 million tons. 4 percent
above 1994 output. Yields are expected to average 2.00 tons per

acre, slightly down from last year. Harvested acres are estimated at

35.6 million acres, up 3 percent from 1994. The larger increases in production

in California, Idaho. and Minnesota are due to increased acreage rather than

increased yields, but increases in Indiana, Kentucky, Montana. Virginia, and

Wyoming are due to larger acreage and higher yields.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1995 is forecast at 1.41 billion

pounds, down 11 percent from 1994. Harvested acres are expected to be
685,840 acres, up 2 percent from last year. Yields for 1995 are estimated to
average 2.056 pounds per acre. 302 pounds below the average for 1994.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 804 million pounds. down 2 percent
from the forecast of a month ago and 8 percent below a year ago. Flue-cured
growers plan to harvest 395.000 acres, 10 percent above last year with most of
the increase resulting from North Carolina’s increased Type 12 acreage. Flue-
cured tobacco accounts for 58 percent of this year’s total tobacco acreage.

Burley production is expected to total 514 million pounds, 16 percent below the
production of 1994. Yield is expected to average 2.072 pounds per acre,

228 pounds below the average for 1994. Burley tobacco growers expect to harvest
248.300 acres. 7 percent below last year. Kentucky, with 65 percent of the
1995 burley area to be harvested, is 7 percent below a year ago.

Farmers were later than usual in getting the tobacco set due to the wet spring
weather. Blue mold was encouraged by the damp spring weather but the summer
heat stopped the mold from spreading. Black shank and root rot have appeared in
some dry areas. Tobacco condition declined as the season progressed due to
disease, spotty rains. and hot weather depleted soil moisture supplies. In
Kentucky, burley tobacco was 25 percent topped by August 1 with wide variation
in tobacco development due to uneven planting progress in the spring. Excessive
moisture in North Carolina delayed planting and leached nitrogen from soils.

Sugarbeets: Production for U.S. is expected to total 28.9 million tons. a
decrease of 10 percent from 1994. Area for harvest, at

1.43 million acres, is virtually unchanged from the June “Acreage” report and

1 percent betow last year. The average yield, at 20.2 tons per acre, is

2.0 tons below last year’s yield.

A cool, wet spring delayed the completion of sugarbeet planting. leaving many
northern States two weeks behind normal. Continued heavy rains and hail caused
some acreage to be lost in Colorado. If current harvest intentions are realized
Michigan producers will harvest a record tonnage of sugarbeets. Hot summer
weather has depleted soil moisture levels and increased the demand for
irrigation. Few insect or disease problems have been reported, but the late
planting start has held down yield prospects.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-11 NASS, USDA


Olives: The California olive crop is forecast at 85,000 tons. up 1 percent from

1994 production of 84.000 tons. Unusual weather patterns. cool
temperatures, rain, hail, and wind delayed the olive bloom 2 to 3 weeks behind
normal. Heavy rain impacted pollination. Budding was intermittent and buds
were on the tree for an extended period. These conditions led to a crop just
slightly larger than last year but smaller than expected. Growers indicated the
Manzanillo variety crop, which accounts for about 65-75 percent of the total
production, will be down from last year. Larger crops are expected in the
Sevillano, Mission, and other varieties.

Peaches: Production is forecast at 2.49 billion pounds, up slightly from last

month and down 1 percent from 1994. Production of the U.S. crop,
excluding California Clingstone peaches, is expected to total 1.55 billion
pounds, up fractionally from July 1 and up 13 percent from last year.

Michigan, at 55.0 million pounds. jumped 10 percent above July 1 and sharply
higher than last year’s short crop. Harvest progressed well, with about

25 percent of the crop picked. Good quality was reported. Forecasts for New
Jersey, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Washington remained unchanged from a
month ago. Crop conditions and fruit size in New Jersey are good. In
Pennsylvania, the crop rebounded from a complete loss in 1994 and was rated good
to excellent by growers. The South Carolina harvest reached the three-quarter
mark last month under mostly hot. dry conditions. Harvest continued actively in
Washington with good demand.

Apples: The nation’s apple production is forecast at 11.2 billion pounds. down
1 percent from the 1994 record high crop but 5 percent more than 1993.

Production in the Western States is expected to reach 6.52 billion pounds, down
11 percent from 1994. Washington. the major contributor to the decrease,
dropped 9 percent from last year’s record high crop. Gala harvest should begin
around mid-August in North Central Washington. On July 9. in that region, a
damaging hailstorm struck several orchards. It is too early to tell the extent
of the storm's damage. In Yakima County, a wet spring and a lack of bloom is
expected to reduce Red and Golden Delicious production. Fruit size and quality
in California are good. Hot weather stressed the crop but damage is minimal.
Adverse conditions early in'the growing season reduced crop potential in Idaho,
Oregon, and Utah.

The Central States expect 1.68 billion pounds of apple production. up 21 percent
from last year. Conditions have been favorable across the region. Production
is expected to exceed 1994 in 10 out of 12 central states. If realized,
Michigan will harvest another record high crop with production levels exceeding
1994 by 19 percent. Dry weather and high temperatures hindered development and
affected sizing in Indiana and Wisconsin.

In the Eastern States. production is placed at 2.98 billion pounds. up

13 percent from 1994. Prospects are good-to-excellent across most of the
region. Apple production is expected to surpass last year’s mark in 12 out of
16 eastern states. Harvest of early varieties in New York began. Apples are
sizing nicely in New York, Pennsylvania. and Virginia. In South Carolina and
Georgia. hot, arid conditions limited fruit size. The largest increases in
Production are projected for: Virginia. a jump of 38 percent. Maryland. up
37 percent, and Georgia, 35 percent.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 B-13 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Area Harvested. Yield. and Production by State
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted August 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production

1994 =: 1995

1,000 Acres =~ => - --- 1,000 Bushels ---
AL i/ 1 95 80 48.0 36.0 36.0 4,560 2,880
AZ V/ : 28 23 94.0 88.0 88.0 2.632 2,024
AR 1/ : 880 1,000 46.0 48.0 48.0 40,480 48,000
CA 1/ : 510 440 76.0 66.0 66.0 38.760 29,040
co : 2,550 2,700 30.0 36.0 38.0 76,500 102,600
OE 1/ : 70 67 54.0 60.0 60.0 3,780 4,020
FL 1/ : 15 13 42.0 32.0 32.0 630 416
GA 1/ : 400 300 51.0 38.0 38.0 20,400 11,400
1D : 790 770 72.0 71.0 73.0 56.880 56,210
IL : 900 1,390 56.0 47.0 49.0 50.400 68,110
IN : 630 660 61.0 61.0 61.0 38.430 40,260
TA Lf t 45 45 47.0 40.0 40.0 2,115 1,800
KS : 11,400 10.800 38.0 28.0 27.0 433,200 291,600
KY : 420 460 60.0 53.0 53.0 25,200 24,380
LA 1/ : 70 80 37.0 36.0 36.0 2,590 2,880
MD 1/ : 220 225 55.0 56.0 56.0 12,100 12,600
MI : 580 600 53.0 55.0 60.0 30.740 36,000
MN 1/ : 37 33 29.0 30.0 30.0 1,073 990
MS 1/ : 160 170 40.0 35.0 35.0 6.400 5,950
MO : 1,100 1,200 45.0 38.0 39.0 49,500 46,800
MT 1,850 1,500 35.0 38.0 41.0 64,750 61,500
NE : 2,100 2,100 34.0 38.0 41.0 71,400 86,100
NV L/ : 5 4 90.0 85.0 85.0 450 340
NJ 1/ : 32 32 42.0 52.0 52.0 1,344 1,664
NM 1/ : 230 150 24.0 22.0 22.0 5,520 3,300
NY 1/ : 115 125 53.0 49.0 49.0 6.095 6.125
NC : 620 680 49.0 42.0 42.0 30.380 28.560
ND 1/ : 38 38 33.0 33.0 33.0 1,254 1,254
OH : 1,180 1.210 58.0 59.0 61.0 68.440 73,810
OK > 5,300 5,250 27.0 21.0 21.0 143.100 110,250
OR : 870 820 64.0 68.0 70.0 55.680 57,400
PA 1/ : 165 185 48.0 51.0 51.0 7.920 9,435
SC 1/ : 360 280 50.0 30.0 30.0 18,000 8,400
Sd : 1,350 1,510 32.0 38.0 38.0 43.200 57.380
TMN 1/ : 300 350 50.0 46.0 46.0 15,000 16,100
TX > 2,900 3,150 26.0 26.0 26.0 75.400 81,900
UT 1/ : 150 140 40.0 46.0 46.0 6,000 6,440
VA V/ : 250 275 56.0 58.0 58.0 14,000 15,950
WA : 2,300 2,150 54.0 56.0 58.0 124,200 124,700
Wy 1/ : 10 i 55.0 52.0 52.0 550 572
WI o1/ : 130 130 59.0 51.0 51.0 7,670 6,630
wy 1/ : 180 190 24.0 34.0 34.0 4,320 6,460
US 41.335 41,336 40.2 37.0 37.6 1,661,043 1,552,230

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
August 1995 A-16 NASS. USDA