Cr Pr 2-2 (2-05)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released February 9, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Unchanged from January

The U.S. all orange February forecast for the 2004-05 season is 9.65 million tons, unchanged from the

previous forecast but 25 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at

162 million boxes (7.29 million tons), is unchanged from the January forecast but 33 percent below the

2003-04 season. The production of early-midseason varieties, at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons), is

unchanged from the January forecast.

The row count survey, conducted January 25-26, 2005, shows harvest is lagging behind recent seasons. 

Florida’s early-midseason harvest started late because of the smaller crop and lagging maturity level. The

early-midseason fruit sized at an average rate during January. The drop rate, at 18 percent, is above the past

10 seasons’ maximum for the early-midseason fruit. Approximately 40 percent of the crop remains to be

harvested. The Valencia forecast, at 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), is unchanged from the previous

forecast but is 33 percent below last season’s final utilization. Florida’s Valencia average drop rate is

increased from last month to 21 percent. Valencia fruit size increased from the January forecast and is

projected to be near average. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward

from January.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season is forecast at 1.58 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from last month's 1.56 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is

projected to yield 1.52 gallons, higher than last season’s final yield of 1.45 gallons per box. Valencias are

projected to yield 1.66 gallons compared to 1.69 gallons for last season. All projections of yield assume that

the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on February 9, 2005.

Secretary of

Agriculture

Mike Johanns

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Lemons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangelos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangerines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Crop Summary ........................................................................6

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2003-2004

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

419.0

19.9

450.0

41.7

930.6

19.0

1.4

40.0

1.3

61.7

438.0

21.3

490.0

43.0

992.3

403.0

21.5

430.0

42.7

897.2

17.0

1.6

35.0

1.3

54.9

420.0

23.1

465.0

44.0

952.1

39.3

102.0

26.2

39.7

34.3

40.2

37.3

26.2

40.2

31.1

39.3

97.7

26.2

39.7

34.1

33.8

96.0

24.0

40.0

30.9

37.3

37.0

24.0

38.0

28.8

33.9

91.9

24.0

39.9

30.8

16,467

2,030

11,790

1,655

31,942

764

52

1,048

52

1,916

17,231

2,082

12,838

1,707

33,858

13,621

2,064

10,320

1,708

27,713

634

59

840

49

1,582

14,255

2,123

11,160

1,757

29,295

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the “Crop Production 2004 Summary.”

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2004-2005

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2004 2005

2004 2005 2004 2005

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Dec

Jan

2,230

2,210 2,245

1,395

1,340 1,410

3,050

3,560 2,540

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted February 1, 2005 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early, Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

200

42,000

112,000

1,350

155,550

270

20,000

91,000

220

111,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,800

5,500

8,730

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

300

38,000

126,000

1,420

165,720

170

14,000

116,000

230

130,400

470

52,000

242,000

1,650

296,120

1,400

15,900

25,000

140

5,400

40,900

5,700

52,140

690

2,700

6,500

9,890

3,000

18,000

21,000

1,000

240

44,000

84,000

1,500

129,740

190

16,500

78,000

250

94,940

430

60,500

162,000

1,750

224,680

700

3,000

10,000

180

5,300

13,000

6,200

24,680

450

2,900

4,500

7,850

2,400

19,500

21,900

1,400

8

1,575

5,040

57

6,680

10

751

4,095

9

4,865

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

957

4

187

1,646

226

2,063

16

105

261

382

114

912

1,026

105

12

1,426

5,670

60

7,168

6

526

5,220

10

5,762

18

1,952

10,890

70

12,930

63

675

1,063

5

181

1,738

228

2,152

25

101

309

435

114

684

798

45

9

1,650

3,780

64

5,503

7

619

3,510

11

4,147

16

2,269

7,290

75

9,650

32

128

425

6

178

553

248

985

17

109

214

340

91

741

832

63

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. Per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities

of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

4,527.0

80,930.0

4,085.0

710.0

3,347.0

1,380.0

7,486.0

59,674.0

43,350.0

2,561.0

13,763.0

865.0

523.0

73.0

1,430.0

8.7

175.0

75,208.0

1,873.0

13,658.6

13,409.0

249.6

1,346.0

30.5

1,354.3

530.0

345.0

1,194.0

18.7

76.5

59.1

1,039.7

97.4

41,567.0

20.0

4,021.0

73,632.0

6,103.0

61,916.0

21,707.0

40,209.0

1,792.0

595.0

3,325.0

320.0

6,517.0

352.0

49,999.0

34,462.0

2,363.0

13,174.0

828.0

516.0

68.7

1,394.0

7.8

159.0

73,958.0

1,711.0

13,057.0

12,809.0

248.0

1,306.7

952.1

409.1

21.5

1,219.3

507.8

329.0

5.8

0.2

27.7

77.7

1,168.1

18.5

72.2

54.6

1,022.8

15.1

93.3

0.4

19.8

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

“

Ton

“

“

“

Bu

“

Cwt

Bu

“

Ton

Bu

“

“

“

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

“

“

“

Bu

Lb

Bale

“

“

Ton

“

Lb

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lb

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lb

Cwt

Lb

69.4

160.4

17.6

2.55

3.47

2.05

64.7

25.3

6,942

26.9

69.8

13.5

43.2

43.5

38.0

43.2

1,618

20.3

819

3,057

1,394

1,105

42.5

1,197

846

835

1,425

22.9

30.8

2,159

1,228

1,460

2,249

1,271

1,220

40,000

1,990

92

391

260

314

345

401

116

176

235

279,253

11,807,217

107,336

157,774

75,383

82,391

115,935

15,065

230,818

8,615

454,899

4,763

2,158,245

1,499,434

89,893

568,918

1,339,530

8,411.0

10,471

56,290

4,261,700

10,875

175,765

3,140,996

2,047,863

23,006.0

22,270.0

736.0

29,932

29,295

883,171

264

17,799

11,419

4,182

899

7,100

6,000

55,203.9

7,146

456,362

4,818

22,663

18,858

410,023

1,746

16,399

5,200

4,658

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2003 2004 2005

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI) 3

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

“

“

“

“

“

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

“

Lbs

Ton

Ton

“

“

Lb

Ton

Lb

Ton

Gal

2,063

1,026

11,545

105

382

59

8,713.1

97.6

22,500.0

6,552.5

118.0

42,600.0

1,259.5

928.1

181.0

16.3

1,040,000

37.9

282,100

326.0

1,260

2,152

798

12,930

45

435

63

10,078.3

100.7

5,972.5

104.0

35,500.0

1,279.1

893.3

49.0

24.9

1,020,000

37.0

181,000

325.0

1,507

985

832

9,650

63

340

32

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2004 2005 2004 2005

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

1,832,030

32,751,560

1,653,160

287,330

1,354,500

558,470

3,029,510

24,149,470

17,543,310

1,036,410

5,569,750

350,060

211,650

29,540

578,710

3,520

70,820

30,435,930

757,980

5,527,500

5,426,490

101,010

544,710

12,340

548,070

214,490

139,620

483,200

7,570

30,960

23,920

420,760

39,420

16,821,750

8,090

1,627,260

29,798,130

2,469,820

25,056,790

8,784,610

16,272,180

725,200

240,790

1,345,590

129,500

2,637,360

142,450

20,234,100

13,946,430

956,280

5,331,390

335,080

208,820

27,800

564,140

3,160

64,350

29,930,060

692,420

5,284,040

5,183,670

100,360

528,810

385,310

165,540

8,700

493,440

205,500

133,140

2,350

60

11,230

31,440

472,720

7,490

29,220

22,100

413,920

6,110

37,760

150

8,010

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2004 2005 2004 2005

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.74

10.06

39.43

5.71

7.78

4.59

2.32

1.42

7.78

1.69

4.38

30.33

2.90

2.93

2.56

2.90

1.81

1.27

0.92

3.43

1.56

1.24

2.86

1.34

0.95

0.94

1.60

51.35

68.97

2.42

1.38

1.64

2.52

1.42

1.37

44.83

2.23

0.10

43.79

29.19

35.18

38.71

44.93

0.13

19.70

26.37

6,080,020

299,917,130

97,373,580

143,130,170

68,386,310

74,743,860

1,682,790

341,670

10,469,730

218,830

11,554,970

4,320,920

58,737,800

40,807,910

2,446,490

15,483,410

607,600

7,630,330

265,980

25,530

1,933,070

4,930

79,730

85,483,900

928,900

5,008,970

4,848,720

160,250

27,153,850

26,575,980

400,600

11,970

807,350

517,960

189,690

40,780

3,220

2,720

25,040

3,240

20,700,230

218,540

1,027,980

855,380

18,598,330

790

743,850

2,360

211,280

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2003 2004 2005

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI) 3

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

95,250

346,540

53,520

3,952,200

88,520

10,210

5,944,360

107,050

19,320

1,142,600

841,910

164,200

14,790

471,740

34,380

127,960

295,740

6,300

1,952,260

723,930

11,729,900

40,820

394,630

57,150

4,571,440

91,380

5,418,160

94,350

16,100

1,160,390

810,350

44,450

22,590

462,660

33,570

82,100

294,840

7,530

893,580

754,780

8,754,330

57,150

308,440

29,030

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2003-04, 2004-05, and 2005-06. 3 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 12 NASS, USDA

January Weather Summary

In most sections of the United States, January’s weather exhibited two distinct characteristics. For example,

the first 2 weeks of January featured warmth, record wetness, and widespread flooding in the Ohio and

middle Mississippi Valleys. Colder, drier weather followed, causing concerns in soft red winter wheat areas

due to numerous freeze-thaw cycles and heaving of saturated soils. Near-record to record warmth also

prevailed across much of the South and East until a pattern-changing cold front swept offshore on January 14. 

Although only light precipitation accompanied sharply colder weather in the Southeast, a major snowstorm

swept across the upper Midwestern, Great Lakes, and Northeastern States from January 21-23, preceded and

followed by several lesser storm systems. Unlike wheat fields in the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys, a

thick blanket of snow protected the wheat crop from weather extremes in the lower Great Lakes region,

including Michigan. Further west, a late-month return to wet weather (rain and snow) maintained adequate to

locally excessive soil moisture reserves across the southern half of the Plains. In contrast, cold, occasionally

snowy conditions on the northern Plains in early to mid-January were suddenly replaced by mild, windy

weather. As a result, the northern High Plains’ wheat crop lost not only its protective snow cover but some of

its winter hardiness as well. The interior Northwest also experienced a rapid change from cool, showery

weather early in the month to unfavorable dryness and record warmth. By month’s end, water-supply

concerns mounted across the Northwest due to meager mountain snow packs and already low reservoir levels. 

Farther south, record-setting precipitation totals deluged California, the Great Basin, and much of the

Southwest through January 12, causing flash flooding and mudslides, but padding high-elevation snow packs,

improving spring and summer runoff prospects, and further easing the effects of long-term drought. Quieter

weather prevailed west of the Rockies thereafter, although a pair of storm systems brought a brief return of

showery conditions to the Southwest during the last week of January.

Despite a mid- to late-month cooling trend, January temperatures averaged 4 to 8 degrees F above normal

across much of the South. Slightly lower (near-normal) temperatures were observed along the southern

Atlantic Coast. Unusually mild weather also prevailed in the Four Corners States, where monthly

temperatures in a few locations averaged more than 10 degrees F above normal. In contrast, mid- to latemonth warmth only partially offset a bitterly cold start to the year on the northern Plains, where January

temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F below normal. Meanwhile, temperatures varied sharply across

the interior Northwest, ranging from as much as 6 degrees F below normal in the snow-covered northern

Great Basin to 4 degrees F above normal in several locations farther north. Elsewhere, temperatures averaged

near normal in California, while Midwestern readings ranged from 2 degrees F below normal in Michigan to

as much as 8 degrees F above normal in the lower Ohio Valley. Some of the coldest weather, relative to

normal, affected New England, where temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F below normal.

January Crop Summary

In the eastern and southern Corn Belt, persistent rain and snow showers disrupted fieldwork during most of

the month. Much of the Ohio River Valley received over 8 inches of precipitation. With alternate freezing

and thawing in the area, soil heaving became a concern for many winter wheat growers. Mostly dry

conditions prevailed in the western Corn Belt. Temperatures averaged above normal across most of the Corn

Belt.

Mostly dry conditions prevailed across the northern Great Plains, preventing accumulation of snow cover,

while temperatures as low as -30 degrees Fahrenheit threatened winter wheat. Further south, above-normal

precipitation limited fieldwork, particularly in Texas, where the cotton harvest remained incomplete at

month’s end. Cotton harvest advanced 13 percentage points between January 9 and 30, from 83 percent

complete to 96 percent.

Snow cover was well below normal in the northern Rocky Mountains, leaving winter wheat in the region

exposed to bitterly cold temperatures early in the month. Toward the end of the month, temperatures rose to

well above normal, further thinning the protective snow cover. Elsewhere in the Rockies, temperatures were

mostly above normal, while a series of storms brought moderate to heavy rain and snow.

The Pacific Northwest also had below-normal snow cover throughout the month, though near-normal

temperatures were not a threat to winter wheat. Heavy rain and snow in California and the Southwest boosted

water supplies but hampered fieldwork through midmonth. California’s cotton harvest was completed by

midmonth despite wet conditions. As fields began to dry out toward month’s end, harvest of citrus and
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 13 NASS, USDA

vegetable crops resumed. Periods of freezing temperatures caused some ice mark and rind puff on navel

oranges, reducing the quality of the crop.

In the Mississippi Delta and Southeast, moderate to heavy precipitation and mild temperatures prevailed

through midmonth, but conditions were mostly cool and dry thereafter. Toward month’s end, ice storms

occurred across much of the Southeast, but damage to crops was minimal. Freezing temperatures reached as

far south as the Gulf Coast. However, temperatures remained above freezing in Florida’s winter agricultural

areas. Harvest of sugarcane, citrus, and vegetable crops remained active throughout the month, with only

slight delays caused by wet conditions.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2004 is forecast at 29.3 million tons, unchanged

from last month but 13 percent below 2003. Area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed for the

2004 crop year, at 952,100 acres, is 4 percent less than last year’s harvested area. Yield is forecast at

30.8 tons per acre, the same as January but 3.3 tons below the 2003 crop.

In Florida, harvest remained active throughout January. However, acreage, yield, and production forecasts for

the State are unchanged from the last month. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward

from January.

Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 985,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but

54 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast, at 13.0 million boxes

(553,000 tons), is unchanged from January but 68 percent below last season's final utilization. If realized, this

will be the lowest grapefruit utilization since the 1935-36 season. The white grapefruit forecast is

3.00 million boxes (128,000 tons), unchanged from January but 81 percent below last season. The colored

grapefruit forecast, at 10.0 million boxes (425,000 tons), remains unchanged from January 1 but 60 percent

below last season's final utilization. Colored grapefruit projected size is larger compared to January but the

drop rate is higher. The two offsetting factors indicate the current forecast will still be realized. Arizona,

California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from January.

Tangerines: The 2004-05 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 340,000 tons, unchanged from the previous

forecast but 22 percent below last season's final utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at

4.50 million boxes (214,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 31 percent below last season's

utilization of 6.50 million boxes. Harvest of Florida’s Fallglo tangerines is complete. Sunburst harvest

continues. The Honey variety final average fruit size is slightly higher than last month and final fruit drop

rate has increased from 50 percent to 53 percent. Although not the highest tangerine drop rate on record, this

year’s drop rate is higher than nine of the last ten years. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried

forward from January.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast, at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), is up 27 percent from January 1

and 40 percent more than last season’s utilized production. The increase was based primarily on estimated

utilization to February 1 at slightly over 1.2 million boxes.

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast is 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season, unchanged from

January but 50 percent below last season’s final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. If realized, this will be the

smallest amount since the Temple forecast series began in the 1953-54 season. The final fruit drop rate, at

22 percent, is up 5 percentage points from the January forecast. This final drop rate is higher than any of the

past 10 years.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.54 million pounds for January, 17 percent lower

than last month and 29 percent less than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,245 acres, 1 percent higher than

last month and up 2 percent from a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,410 acres, up 1 percent from last

month and 5 percent above January 2004. Weather conditions were variable during January with a mix of

showers and sunny periods. Soil moisture in non-irrigated orchards has been irregular with rain at the

beginning of the month, followed by two weeks of little to no rainfall. The lack of rain towards the end of the

month contributed to slowing fruit maturity and January’s lower yield and production.

Florida Citrus: Florida’s weather patterns were generally typical over the citrus producing areas for January

with cool nights and moderate day temperatures. The exception was several mornings as cold fronts passed
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 14 NASS, USDA

through the State. Each one of these fronts brought varying amounts of rainfall and morning low

temperatures in the mid to low 30's in some locations and only the mid 40's in others. Light frost was

reported on one morning in northern and central locations. Daytime high temperatures during January were

generally in the 70's with some days reaching into the low 80's. Days following the passage of the cold fronts

were the exception with daytime temperatures remaining in the 50's. Rainfall patterns were also typical with

most precipitation occurring prior to the passage of a cold front. Total rainfall in January was generally below

normal in most areas. 

Harvest of early-midseason oranges increased with weekly harvest reaching over six million boxes during

only one week. Navel orange harvest continued during the month with the fruit holding well. Grapefruit

harvest for fresh shipments continued steady during the month with harvest for processing increasing near the

end of the month. Sunburst tangerine harvest is complete and harvest of Honey tangerines is increasing. 

Tangelo harvest is nearing completion and Temple harvest for fresh and processing usage is increasing.

California Citrus: Citrus growers conducted pest management field work in citrus groves including

applications of pre-emergent herbicides and fungicides. Harvesting of navel oranges, lemons, grapefruit, and

pummelos continued but was often delayed due to rain and fog in many locations. Citrus fruit maturity and

external color were reported as excellent with good yields also being reported. However, ice mark and rind

puff began appearing on some navels, resulting in lower pack-outs.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Variable weather during January caused delays in seasonal cultural

activities in many locations. Grape growers pruned vines, tied canes, repaired trellis wire, and replaced end

posts in wine, raisin, and table grape vineyards as weather and field conditions permitted. Fertilizers and soil

amendments were applied in many vineyards. Tree and vine removal of unwanted varieties continued. The

open ground was prepared for new plantings. Pruning and shredding activities neared completion in fruit and

nut orchards but weed spraying, field fumigation, and dormant spraying continued as field conditions

allowed. At month’s end, growers began placing bees in almond orchards to aid in pollination. Pruning of

olive orchards continued and brush was shredded. In the San Joaquin Valley, plum, peach, nectarine, and

almond orchards began pushing buds. One plum orchard in the Sanger district was in full bloom. Field

preparations for the spring strawberry crop were underway, with some growers laying out plastic. Cold

temperatures during the month prompted berry growers to take measures to protect sensitive plants. Harvest

activity of avocados increased. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 15 NASS, USDA

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and

the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit

droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas

conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also

conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root

Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between

the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. 

The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of

the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made

concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming

that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you

exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.7 percent. This means that chances are

two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by

more than 4.3 percent, or 3.7 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.4 percent, or 6.6 percent excluding freeze seasons.

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have

averaged 354,000 tons (336,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 62,000 tons to 745,000 tons

(62,000 tons to 745,000 tons, excluding freezes). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the

final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The

difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final

production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2005 16 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 720-7688

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
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Science, Markets, Policy–What’s Ahead?

Count on USDA’s Outlook Forum 2005 for the

latest farm and commodity prospects and insight

on news shaping the outlook for agriculture. 

Outlook sessions will feature USDA’s first 2005

forecasts for planting, production, trade and prices and

speakers on market developments.

The program will feature the science-agriculture

connection. Today as never before, science is crossing

paths with farming, farm policy and the marketplace.

Topics include managing risks from BSE and Avian

Influenza; prospects for energy prices, ethanol and

co-products; early debate over the next Farm Bill; new

dietary guidelines; the future of the North American

marketplace; WTO talks and the bio-safety protocol.

Attendees will receive new USDA long-term commodity

projections to 2014. USDA agencies will demonstrate

new e-government tools for better service.

Networking opportunities abound at this popular event. 

Register online today. For program updates, send your

name and e-mail address to agforum@oce.usda.gov.

www.usda.gov/oce/forum agforum@oce.usda.gov