NOVEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

A series of frontal systems caused substantial precipitation over much of
the eastern half of the Nation and the Northwest relieving or ending long-term
moisture deficits. These systems brought heavy snow to the mountains of the
West, the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Heavy rain and
severe thunderstorms spawned an unusual number of iate season tornadoes in the
middle and lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast, with powerful tornadoes
raking the Raleigh, North Carolina area. The South Atlantic Coast was
relatively dry except for Tropical Storm Keith which drenched Florida with
torrential rain. Unseasonably mild weather generally prevailed over the
Nation although freezing temperatures penetrated into northern Florida at
month's end. (Prepared by the Joint USDA/NOAA Agricultural Weather Facility.)

ROW CROP HARVEST

Harvest was nearly complete in the central and northern Plains by mid-
November. Rain delayed cotton and soybean harvests in the Delta and eastern
Corn Belt the second half of the month. Cotton and soybean harvests were
still ahead of normal at month's end.

Corn harvest was 90% complete, 12 points ahead of normal by November 6.
Harvest was complete in Iowa and Texas and nearly complete in Georgia,
Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, and Missouri. By mid-month, harvest was complete
or nearly complete in most of the 17 major producing States. In Michigan,
Ohio, and Pennsylvania, harvest was slowed by rain and was behind normal.
Rain continued to slow harvest in the eastern Corn Belt the last half of the
month. By month's end, harvest was still behind normal in Michigan and
Pennsylvania. On November 27, Michigan's harvest was 85% complete and
Pennsylvania's was 76% complete.

By the end of the first week in November, soybean harvest was complete in
Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota and nearly complete in Illinois, Kansas, and
Minnesota. By November 27, harvest in the 19 major producing States was 95%
finished, slightly ahead of the 92% average. Rain and wet field conditions
slowed harvest in the Delta and eastern Corn Belt the last half of the month.
At month's end, Michigan's harvest was 80% finished, 16 points behind normal.
In Alabama and Mississippi, harvest was 7 points and 10 points behind normal,
respectively. Harvest was ahead of normal in the Southeast. North Carolina's
harvest was 63% complete, 8 points ahead of normal. In South Carolina,
harvest was 11 points ahead of the 54% average.

Cotton harvest was ahead of normal in all the major producing States
except Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina, in early November. In the 14
major producing States, harvest was 64% complete, 6 points ahead of the
average on November 13. Arizona and South Carolina's harvests were 5 points
behind normal and Georgia's was 4 points behind. During the third week of
November, a killing frost accelerated defoliation in Oklahoma and Texas.
California's harvest was slowed by rain but was nearly complete. By November
27, harvest in the major producing States was 75% complete, 5 points ahead of
normal. The last week of November, rain slowed harvest in central and eastern
Arizona. Texas' harvest was 57% finished, 8 points ahead of the average.
Snow delayed harvest in the Plains area. Georgia's harvest was slowed by rain
and was 3 points behind the 89% normal. Oktahoma's harvest was 55 percent
complete, 25 points ahead of the average.

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

At the beginning of November, seeding was nearly complete except in the
Southeast and California. Seeding was 95 percent (%) finished, 5 percentage
points ahead of the S-year average. Condition was mostly good to fair. Lack
of moisture slowed crop development in much of the Plains and Pacific
Northwest. Russian wheat aphids were a problem in the Northwest. By
midmonth, seeding was essentially complete except in the Southeast and
California. Condition remained good to fair except in the Pacific Northwest
and some Plains States, where it was mostly fair to good. Ninety-two percent
of the crop was emerged, 9 points ahead of normal. Warm temperatures
increased greenbug populations in portions of Kansas and Texas. Cool
temperatures slowed Russian aphid activity in the Northwest. Inadequate
moisture continued to limit growth in most of the Plains. Strong winds
damaged some of the crop in Colorado. Rain and mild temperatures improved
condition in the Corn Belt. Near the end of the month, rain and snow provided
needed moisture in portions of the Plains and Pacific Northwest. Greenbugs
continued to be a problem in Kansas and Texas. In Texas, central and southern
areas remained dry and showed little or no growth. Continued rainfall and
mild temperatures benefited the crop in the Corn Belt.

CROR PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 B-1 NASS, USDA



FARM MARKETINGS OF OATS, BY STATES, 1986-87 AND 1987-88
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONT

STATE AND «36:0 0t 0:00 dE dds : :
MARKETING  :MAY :JUN:JUL :AUG:SEP :OCT:NOV :DEC:JAN :FEB:MAR :APR:MAY : JUN
YEAR : : : : : : : : : : : :
PERCENT
CALIF 1986-87 : il 6 8 iWs7 8 8 4 4 8 4
1987-88 : 6 5 3 9 15 12 9 10 12 14 #4 1
ILL 1986-87: 4 9 2 171 64 6 6 77 7
1987-88 : 3062«4=~«]S38 8k 2
IND 1986-87: 50 18 7 1 71 +3 3 +5 6 12 6
1987-88 : 44112 3 1 3 71 110 5 5 5
IOWA 1986-87. : 45 4 5 3 1 3 4 «7 45 5
1987-88 : 4412 8 2 1 2 6 6 4 4 6
MICH 1986-87. : 7°37 4 3 2 810 07 4 4 4
1987-88: 2430 12 «3 «32063 (6G KP
MINN 1986-87. : 15 12 6 4 9 «111 6 4 412 5
1987-88: 7 4 6 3 9 44 47 5 6
MONT 1986-87. : 6 811 1 9 7 3 «12 8 6 6 4
1987-88 : 2 811 4 8 211 9 7 «+4 «8 6
NEBR 1986-87: 326 7 4 2 5 14 #9 6 5 5 5
1987-88: 33413 7 2 4 4 9 «5 7 6 3 7
NY 1986-87: 8 1813 1 5 310 8 6 3 8 7
1987-88: 9 914 #7 3 42 1 6 10 5 2
N DAK 1986-87: 6 10 8 5 7 1012 9 4 6 11 12
1987-88 : 6 1615 8 13 10 7 5 7 3 5
OHIO 1986-87: 3112 4 5 4 8 8 § 6 5 5 7
1987-88: 30 2013 6 5 4 5 4 5 2 3 3
OREG 1986-87: 6 27 9 6 18 5 5 7 8 8B
1987-88: 3 15 9 1 7 0 6 9 7 7 5 4
PA —-'1986-87_: 20 13 4 #2 6 3 4 #7 13 «12:10 6
1987-88 : 20810 #5 5 6 8 6 9 5 5 3
S DAK 1986-87 : 1 6 4 3 5 1012 9 6 7 15 8
1987-88: 20 12 8 9 9 6 3 6 8
TEX 1986-87 :35 25 12 5 7 3 2 22 23 2
1987-88 :16 6 5 § 1 YT 7 217 79 7 7
WIS 1986-87: 12 17 7 3 3 51 910 6 8 9
1987-88: 23 14 5 4 4 5§ 8 W011 5 6 5

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 A-14 NASS, USDA


TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop forecast is 3.90 million boxes, 7 percent
below last season and 2 percent below the 1986-87 crop.

TANGERINES: The U.S. all tangerine forecast is 5.05 million boxes, 1 percent

above last season but 4 percent less than the harvest in 1986-87.
This forecast includes all varieties of tangerines in Florida (Dancy, Robinson,
and Honey), as wel] as production of California and Arizona tangerines.

TEMPLES: Florida's temple forecast is 3.80 million boxes, 7 percent above last
season's production and 12 percent higher than 1986-87.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Most of this State's citrus groves were in good condition

during November. The citrus belt was dry when the hard rains
of November 22 associated with Tropical Storm Keith soaked the central and
northern parts of Florida. Areas in and 30 miles north and south of Lakeland
recorded 3-10 inches of soaking moisture which helped fill ponds, streams, and
lakes that were at Tow levels. Most of the early oranges, grapefruit,
tangelos and tangerines have very good on-tree color break. The majority of
this early fruit is now passing maturity tests. Harvest of Navels and Hamlin
oranges has been very active in all areas. Movement of all grapefruit
averaged near 800,000 boxes per week through November. Harvest of the popular
Robinson tangerines was very active in November with movement slowing as
supplies were running low at the end of the month,

TEXAS CITRUS: Harvest of both grapefruit and early oranges has moved ahead in

the Valley without delay. Shipments of grapefruit are far ahead
of last season white orange movement has been about the same as last season.
Quality is above average. Prices are holding steady at good levels. Normal
grove care operations are occurring. Irrigation has been steady.

CALIFORNIA FRUIT & NUTS: The first significant precipitation since last spring

came during November. Harvest of most deciduous tree
fruit was near completion by month's end. Table grape harvest ended with
Emperor and Ribier the last varieties to be packed. Avocado, date, kiwi,
olive, persimmon and pomegranate harvests continued during the month. Picking
of new crop Navel oranges started while old crop Valencia harvest neared the
end. Tangerine harvest was active during the month with good color being
reported. Desert grapefruit and lemon harvest made good progress. Pecan
harvest was active. Normal fall cultural practices continued in orchards and
vineyards with pruning and application of herbicides and fertilizer the major
activities.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 B-5 NASS, USDA


1986

1987 : 1988

AND : : IND
TYPE : 1987 1988
ACRES
TYPE 31 :
IND : 5,400 5,600
KY : 140,000 145,000
MO 1/ : 1,700 2,100
NC : 7,900 8,500
OHIO : 7,300 8,200
TENN : 43,000 43,000
VA : 8,700 9,200
WVA 1/: 1,800 1,900
US : 215,800 223,500

POUNDS
2,050 2,000
2,050 2,200
2,070 1,700
1,785 1,800
1,640 1,700
1,705 1,800
1,815 1,750
3,440 1,250
1,943 2,053

1

12,095
287,000
4,389
14,440
13,064
62,010
12,284
2,640

407 ,922

2000 POUNDS

11,070 11,200
287,000 319,000
3,519 3,570
14,102 15,300
11,972 13,940
73,315 77,400
15,790 16,100
2,592 2,375

419,360 458,885

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AREA PLANTED, DRY EDIBLE BEANS

STATE : 1987 1/  : 1988

STATE

1987 1): 1988

1,000 ACRES
CALIF 9: (172.

0 175.0
COLO : 185.0 175.0
IDAHO : 152.0 110.0
KANS : 26.0 21.0
MICH : 470.0 260.0
MINN 3 75.0 65.0

8 4.4

MONT : 5.

1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION,
DECEMBER 1988 A-5

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA



RELEABILITY OF DECEMBER 1 COTTON PRODUCTION FORECAST

The cotton production forecast in this report is based primarily on an
objective yield survey made during the last week in November and reports from
cotton ginners as of December 1. Some adjustments have been made in harvested
acres based on acreage data from ASCS. The objective yield survey provided
smal] plot observations, counts and measurements based on a_ probability
sample. This survey is subject to sampling and non-sampling errors that are
common to all surveys. The forecast is also subject to change due to future
weather effects and other factars that cannot be measured currently but
directly affect production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 cotton
production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based
on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviations
between the December 1 production forecasts and the final estimates as a
percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared percentage deviations
for the 1968-87 twenty-year period; the square root of this average becomes
Statistically the “Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years,

The “Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast
is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
production forecast of 15.2 million bales will not be above or below the final
estimate by more than 1.8 percent or approximately 274 thousand bales.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will
not exceed 3.2 percent or approximately 486 thousand bales.

Differences between the December 1 forecast and the final estimate during
the past 10 years have averaged 166 thousand bales, ranging from 3 thousand to
399 thousand bates. The December 1 forecast has been below the final estimate
6 times and above 4 times.

COTTON: All cotton production is forecast at 15.2 million bales, up 3 percent

from 1987 and up 2 percent from the November 1 forecast. This
represents the highest production since 1981 when 15.6 million bales were
produced, The Upland production forecast is 14.8 million bales and American-
Pima production is expected to total a record high 347 thousand bates. Total
area for harvest is estimated at 11.6 million acres, up 16 percent from last
year and unchanged from the November estimate. Yields are expected to average
627 pounds per harvested acre, down 79 pounds per acre from 1987's record, but
up 15 pounds from November.

Upland cotton production in Texas and Oklahoma is expected to total 5.18
million bates, up 4 percent from last year and up 8 percent from November 1.
Following freezing temperatures on the Plains of Texas and in Oklahoma, cotton
harvest was active and widespread on the remaining acreage.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and
Tennessee) expect to produce 4.73 million bales, 3 percent above last year and
up 1 percent from November 1. Harvest is complete in Tennessee and near
completion in the remaining States in the area.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 3.89 mitlion bales of Upland cotton, down 1 percent from
last year and 2 percent below the November forecast. Harvest is winding down
in the area as a result of generally favorable conditions. As of December 4,
harvest was 92 percent complete in Arizona and 98 percent in California.
Harvest in New Mexico was 80 percent complete.

The Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina) are expected to harvest 1.01 million bales, up 8 percent from last
year and 3 percent above November 1. Weather conditions were generally
favorable for harvest in the area. As of December 4, cotton harvest was 97
percent complete in Alabama, 93 percent in Georgia, 91 percent in North
Carolina, and 97 percent complete in South Carolina.

Bureau of the Census reports 11,698,470 running bales ginned prior to
December 1, compared with 11,076,360 bales to the same date last year and
7,491,483 bates in 1986.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 B-2 NASS, USDA



U.S. TOBACCO, 1866 - 1987
AREA AND YIELD

THOUSAND ACRES
2500 ©

POUNDS PER ACRE
semen mes soem = 2500

2000 - Coe, -* "2000
AREA HARVESTED: °° :
(000) ACRES

1500 ~ pot oa vy - 1800
’ :
“os : mor 1000
ate” YIELD wee
~ LBS / ACRE .
“500
ee

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

U.S. TOBACCO, 1866 - 1987
PRODUCTION AND PRICE

MILLION POUNDS CENTS PER POUND
0.0 i 2 ee 260
2000 - ewe. 200
1600 - wer, 4 8150
PRODUCTION.” «+ 3°" :
MIL LBS wee ;
1000 ~ Saal bt “= 100
aan - 60
os /PRICE
vo oe CENTS / LB
cen ut eg
1920 1940 1960 1980

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 8-8 NASS, USDA


Weather conditions during November were a mixture of sunshine and rain
over major producing orchards. Rainfall amounts were higher than normal
prompting farmers to implement a steady disease control program.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 4,550 acres in November, 2
percent more than October and 11 percent more than last November. Harvested
area in November 1988 totaling 2,320 acres rose 1 percent over October.
Still, this was 5 percent lower than November 1987.

ORANGES: U.S. production is forecast at 215 million boxes, 1 percent below

the October 1 forecast but up 9 percent from last season. The
forecast of all oranges in Florida is 150 million boxes, down 1 percent from
the October 1 forecast but 9 percent more than last season's crop and 25
percent above 1986-87. The forecast for early and mid-season varieties in
Florida is 89.0 million boxes, 13 percent more than last season and 35 percent
above the 1986-87 crop. Harvest of Florida early and mid-season oranges is
about 5 percent complete. The Valencia forecast, at 61.0 million boxes, is 3
percent greater than last season and 13 percent above the 1986-87 crop.

The California all orange crop forecast, at 61.0 million boxes, is
unchanged from October 1 but 8 percent above last season. The forecast for
Navel oranges is 35.0 million boxes, the same as the October 1 forecast but 11
percent greater than Vast season and | percent above the 1986-87 production.
Harvest of the Navel crop as of December 1 was about 7 percent complete.
Fruit quality is good but sizes are small.

California's Valencia forecast of 26.0 million boxes is unchanged from the
October 1 forecast, but 4 percent above last season's production and 11
percent greater than the 1986-87 crop. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.75
million boxes, 6 percent above the October 1 forecast and 22 percent greater
than last season.

Changes in U.S. production between December 1 and final production have
averaged 21.0 million boxes over the past ten seasons, ranging from 1.68
million boxes in 1982-83 to 53.0 million boxes in 1983-84. The freeze that
occurred in Florida and Texas during December 1983 was the major cause for the
53.0 million box difference between December 1, 1983 and final production for
the 1983-84 season.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1988-89 forecast of all Frozen

Concentrated Orange Juice for Florida
is 1.52 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast is projected to
estimate the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors
Association. The 1987-88 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was a record high
1.55342 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

GRAPEFRUIT: The U.S. prospects for the 1988-89 season, including California's

"Desert" grapefruit but excluding California's "Other Areas"
grapefruit, indicate a crop of 63.7 million boxes, 1 percent above the
previous season and 9 percent above the 1986-87 season. The California "Other
Areas" grapefruit crop, which will be forecast as of April 1, 1989, accounted
for 4.70 million boxes harvested last season and 5.00 million boxes in 1986-87.

Florida's grapefruit forecast is 54.0 million boxes, virtually unchanged
from last season but 8 percent above the 1986-87 season. The Florida white
seedless grapefruit forecast is 28.5 million boxes, 2 percent below last
season; colored seedless is 23.0 million boxes, 5 percent above last season
and seedy grapefruit at 2.50 million boxes is 9 percent lower than 1987-88.

The California "Desert" grapefruit forecast is 3.90 million boxes, 7
percent below last season. Arizona's grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.30
million boxes, down 13 percent from ast season. The Texas grapefruit
forecast is 4.50 million boxes, an 18 percent increase from last season,

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 B-4 NASS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF SOYBEANS, BY STATES, 1986-87 AND 1987-88

PERCENT OF SALES,

BY MONTHS

Ow CH wa Ow

wn OM CH

an

TFEB : MAR JUL :AUG

PERCENT

3 30201 1 1

3 202 4 1 14
4 5 4 1 1

4 5 3 2 2 1 2
2 3003 (2 1 201
4 302 1 2 2 1
8 8 9 8B 4 3 3
8 8 5 7 5 3 3
8 6 5 4 2 2 2
9 5 5 5 3 4
6 7 8 7 7 8 7
6 9 6 6 6 6 5
5 9 § 5§ 4 2 3
6 5 3 5 2 1

10 16 «93 2 2

i 8 5 8 2

2 1 3 6 7 6 8
2 1 1 1

6 7 5 5 4 33
5 6 5 4 3 1

7 5 7 9 7 10 7
6 8 8 & 7 5
10 4 4 2 3 1 1
6 5 3 1 7 1
9 8 7 4 3 3 3
a 7 5 4 3 3°(2
6 5 4 3 3 2 2
6 6 5 5 3 8 4
5 304 3 3 10
4 3 2 2 2 1 1
n 8 5 5 9 0 3
5 3002 «4 2 ro]
6 8 9 «6 4 3 3
5 5 4 7 5 3 3
6 4 4 3 2 11
5 5 4 § 3 14
3 4 5 4 4 304
7 6 4 4&4 4 2 2
7 5 6 3 2 1

4 3 2 2 2 1

5 4 4 2 2 1 4
3 30 03°«*S 1 11

STATE AND
MARKETING
YEAR
ALA 1986-87: 5
1987-88 : 3
ARK 1986-87 : 2
1987-88 : 4
GA 1986-87 : 2
1987-88 : 2
ILL 1986-87 : 15
1987-88 : 16
IND 1986-87 :
1987-88 : 2
TOWA 1986-87 :
1987-88 :
KANS 1986-87 :
1987-88 :
KY 1986-87 :
1987-88 :
LA 1986-87 : 12
1987-88 : 21
MICH 1986-87 : 2
1987-88 : 3
MINN 1986-87 : 4
1987-88 : 11
MISS 1986-87 : 3
1987-88 : 4
MO 1986-87: 4
1987-88 : 7
NEBR 1986-87 : 3
1987-88 : 7
NC 1986-87 :
1987-88 : 1
ND 1986-87 : 1
1987-88 : 21
OHIO 1986-87 : 8
1987-88 : 20
SC 1986-87 : 2
1987-88 : 1
SD 1986-87: 4
1987-88 : 14
TENN 1986-87: 3
1987-88 : 2
TEX 1986-87 5
1987-88 : 2
CROP PRODUCTION,

DECEMBER 1988

A-18

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES:

MONTHLY MARKETINGS - UNITED STATES

U.S. monthly marketing percentages for wheat, oats,
barley, corn, sorghum, soybeans, flaxseed, sunflower,
cotton, and peanuts are based on the 12 months which are
used for the U.S. marketing year. These months are
consistent with the data used to weight U.S. marketing
year average prices. Marketings are based on monthly
probability surveys which obtain quantities of the crop
purchased from producers and price information. Pur-
chases are not identified by crop production year, but
represent the commodity sold during the 12 months of the
marketing year. Monthly marketings for hay and dry
edible beans are based on estimates derived from State
marketing years and thus may extend over a_ period
exceeding 12 months.

CROP MARKETING SEASONS OF SPECIFIED FIELD CROPS

BARLEY:

CORN FOR GRAIN:

ORY EDIBLE BEANS:
FLAXSEED:
HAY:

OATS:

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN:

SOYBEANS:
SUNFLOWER:

WHEAT:

CROP PRODUCTION,
DECEMBER 1988

May 1 to April 30 for Arizona; June to May 31 for
California; July 1 to June 30 for all other estimated
States.

August 1 to July 31 for Georgia and Texas; September 1 to
August 31 for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky,
Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio; October 1 to September
30 for all other estimated States.

September 1 to August 31 for all estimated States.
duly 1 to June 30 for all estimated States.

April 1 to March 31 for Arizona; May 1 to April 30 for
Arkansas, California, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky,
Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah;
dune 1 to May 31 for all other estimated States.

May 1 to April 30 for Texas; June 1 to May 31 for
California, July 1 to June 30 for all other estimated
States,

June 1 to May 31 for Texas; August 1 to July 31 for
Arkansas and Oklahoma; September 1 to August 31 for
Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico; South Dakota; October 1 to
September 30 for Colorado and Nebraska.

September 1 to August 31 for all estimated States.

September 1 to August 31 for Minnesota, North Dakota and
South Dakota.

May 1 to April 30 for Arizona, California, Oklahoma and
Texas; June 1 to May 31 for Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas,
and Missouri; July 1 to June 30 for all other estimated
States.

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
A-10 NASS, USDA




DRY EDIBLE
TH

LARGE LIMA
9 0 ee
1988
CALIF 385 110 1,186 48 35 52
IDAHO 18
WASH 39 37
us
CALIF : 48 36
COLO : 33 ap 10 4 43 15 38 33
IDAHO : 204 428 278 109-186-140
KANS : 43 6 43 36 27
MICH 71,495 4,114 1,740 10 129 39 220 205 72
MINN : 555 650 220 40
NEBR : 30 54 103 2,425 2,907 2,373 30 t2
N MEX 2/: 64 81
N DAK 11,435 2,262 1,191
WASH : 26 86 208 235
WYO : 42 65 121
us 13,515 7,210 3,352 2,724 2,480 2,868 220 639
SMALL RED RED KIDNEY
11986 :1987 :1988
CALIF : 324 609
COLO : 48
IDAHO 2 245 231 266 ©6845 22
MICH : 142 620 130 14
MINN : 120
MONT : 29
NEBR : 70
N MEX 2/2
NY 2 226 «97 91 71
WASH > 304 163 243 50
us : 549 394 509 1,248 824 536 1,381 1,845 1,237 717 221 85
CALIF
COLO
IDAHO
KANS
MICH :
MINN z 332 345 120 10 9 20 461,007 1,184 480
MONT : 68 89 63 97 125 76
NEBR : 1,800 1,400 1,200 6 6 4,305 3,507 3,764
N MEX 2/: 131 108 7 212 209
NY : 26 31 28 434 420 325
N DAK : 2,820 2,694 1,321 85 70 78 4,340 5,026 2,590
UTAH 41 47 26 41 47 26
WASH 2 184 249 159 46 60 24 670 746 742
Wyo : 563 530 579 605 595 700
US 110,038 9,465 7,020 477 504 396 22,886 25,909 19,140

1/ 1987 REVISED. 2/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1987 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
DECEMBER 1988 A-7 NASS, USDA



AREA PLANTED, DRY EDIBLE LIMA BEANS

STATE : 1987 1/ : 1988

LARGE LIMA - CALIF : 22.0 32.0
BABY LIMA - CALIF 3 22.0 29.0
1/ REVISED.

ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE : 1987 : IND : 1987: IND-: : 1987 : IND
: 2/ : 1988 : 2/ : 1988: 1986 : 2/ : 1988
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
LARGE LIMA :
CALIF : 21.0 31.0 2,070 2,100 385 435 651
BABY LIMA :
CALIF : 21.0 28.0 2,310 2,300 637 485 644
OTHER :
CALIF : 126.0 110.0 1,760 1,850 1,840 2,218 2,035
ALL H
CALIF : 168.0 169.0 1,868 1,970 2,862 3,138 3,330
COLO : 180.0 170.0 7,450 1,500 2,701 2,610 2,550
IDAHO : 148.0 108.0 1,900 1,850
KANS : 25.0 20.0 1,450 1,550
MICH : 420.0 170.0 1,220 1,200
MINN 3 74.0 60.0 1,600 800
MONT : 5.7 4.0 2,190 1,900
NEBR : 197.0 193.0 1,780 1,950
N MEX : 11.0 9.5 1,930 2,200
NY : 28.0 25.0 1,500 1,300
N DAK : 359.0 370.0 1,400 700
UTAH : 6.7 4.5 700 580
WASH 35.0 36.0 2,130 2,060
WYO . .0 1,920 2,000
US 0 1,535 = 1,393

1/_ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED. 2/ REVISED. 3/ ESTIMATES BEGIN
WITH 1987 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 A-6 NASS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF DRY EDIBLE BEANS, BY STATES, 1986-87 AND 1987-88
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE_AND
MARKETING AUG
YEAR
: PERCENT
CALIF 1986-87 : 7 12 12 ny 9 7 6 8 9 7 7 5
1987-88 : 8 10 12 an 10 7 7 7 8 8 6 6
coLo 1986-87 : 23 25 5 8 7 4 5 4 5 5 4
1987-88: 9 15 10 7 10 8 10 8 6 6 6 5
IDAHO 1986-87 : 9 25 9 YW 6 5 6 7 6 8 4 4
1987-88: 15 21 6 5 7 610 8 7 4 7 4
MICH 1986-87: 7 26 24 21 10 4 2 #1 2°27 +29 2
1987-88 : 3 29 15 q 7 5 4 7 6 5 7 3
MINN 1986-87: 30 45 8 4 4 2 2 3 71 «4
1987-88: 22 10 5 5 11 5 11 8 12 6 2 3
NEBR 1986-87 : VW 38 9 9 9 ay 5 4 5 3 3 3
1987-88: 11 16 7 6 12 #4 8 #3 1 1 1 1
NY 1986-87 : 2 1 13 16 12 11 +10 10 6 3 3 3
1987-88: 4 13 10 9 11 8 9 1B 9 5 5 4
NOAK 1986-87:20 29 9 8 7 5 § 2 5 3 2 6
1987-88 : 14 12 8 10 15 10 9 7 5 5 2 3
WASH 1986-87: 27 21 19 «45 4S 4 2d
1987-88 : 12 13 6 9 VW V7 9 7 3 7 5 1
WYO 1986-87 : 13 12 W ai 3 3 2 5 19 1 8 2
1987-88 : 21 8 6 5 7 1 10 1 19 5 5 2

FARM MARKETINGS OF SUNFLOWER, BY STATES, 1986-87 AND 1987-88
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE AND
MARKETING :SEP
YEAR :

MINN 1986-87 : 3 8 6
1987-88 : 10 43

N DAK 1986-87 : 3 9 2
1987-88 : 5 3 8

S DAK 1986-87 : 7 201
1987-88 : 2 8

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

DECEMBER 1988 A-19 NASS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT 1/

TON EQUIVALENT

UTILIZED

1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES, EARLY MID
& NAVEL 3/ :
ARIZ 4/ : 1,000 610 750 37 23 28
CALIF : 34,500 31,500 35,000 1,294 1,182 1,313
FLA : 65,800 78,500 89,000 2,961 3,532 45005
TEX : 500 940 1,200 22 40 51
us : 101,800 111,550 125,950 4,314 4,777 5,397
ORANGES, VALENCIA
ARIZ 4/ : 1,700 1,200 1,650 64 45 62
CALIF : 23,400 25,000 26,000 878 937 975
FLA : 53,900 59,500 61,000 2,425 2,677 2,745
TEX H 375 490 550 16 21 23
us : 79,375 86,190 89,200 3,383 3,680 3,805
ALL ORANGES J
ARIZ 4/ : 2,700 1,810 2,400 101 68 90
CALIF : 57,900 56,500 61,000 2,172 2,119 2,288
FLA : 119,700 138,000 150,000 5,386 6,209 6,750
TEX : 875 1,430 1,750 38 61 74
us : 181,175 197,740 215,150 7,697 8,457 9,202
TEMPLES :
FLA 3,400 3,550 3,800 153 160 71
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE
SEEDLESS :
FLA : 26,900 29,200 28,500 1,143 1,241 1,21
GRAPEFRUIT,COLORED :
SEEDLESS :
FLA 20,000 21,900 23,000 850 930 978
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
FLA 2,900 2,750 2,500 123 117 106
ALL GRAPEFRUIT :
ARIZ 4/ : 2,200 1,500 1,300 70 48 42
CALIF 4/ 5/ :
DESERT : 4,300 4,200 3,900 137 135 125
OTHER AREAS =: 5,000 4,700 168 158
TOTAL : 9,300 8,900 305 293
FLA 3 49,800 53,850 54,000 2,116 2,288 2,295
TEX : 1,925 3,800 4,500 77 152 180
US : 63,225 68,050 2,568 2,78
TANGERINES :
ARIZ 4/ : 700 450 550 26 17 2
CALIF 4/ : 2,230 2,090 1,800 83 78 68
FLA : 2,340 2,450 2,700 wy 117 128
us : 5,270 4,990 5,050 220 212 217
LEMONS 4/
ARIZ : 7,100 3,650 4,200 270 139 160
CALIF : 21,500 17,000 18,500 817 646 703
VS : 28,600 20,650 22,700 1,087 785 863
TANGELOS 2
FLA : 4,000 4,200 3,900 180 189 176

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH
YEAR HARVEST IS COMPLETED. 2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-
90, TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF OTHER-67, FLA-85, TEX-805
LEMONS-76; TANGELOS & TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95,

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA, EARLY AND MID-
SEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES
IN TEXAS. 4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST
5/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT "OTHER AREAS“ WILL BE AS OF APR 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 A-9 NASS, USDA



TOBACCO, A HISTORIC REVIEW

Tobacco and the peace pipe were American traditions long before the rest
of the world knew that either America or tobacco existed. Spanish traders
sent it to Europe as early as 1531. Seeds were carried to Europe and the
Orient before 1600 and tobacco growing became established in many parts of the
world.

Prices of the first tobacco carried into England from the Spanish
possessions of the Caribbean area were fabulously high. Retail sales were as
high as 90 shillings per pound. In comparison, wheat averaged about 1 shilling
per bushel during the 1551 to 1557 period. These high prices were conducive
to the establishment and rapid expansion of tobacco growing in the English
colonies. Tobacco served as a means of exchange and was used in lieu of gold
or currency. Exports increased from 20,000 pounds from the 1618 crop to
500,000 in 1628. By 1669, England imported 9 million pounds from the American
colonies.

The expansion in tobacco production in the colonies resulted in reduced
prices and recurring depressions. These lower prices made smoking and snuff
more popular in England and Europe where it had been a luxury. Colonial
Virginia and Maryland growers demanded stringent regulations to limit
production and some were instituted. Planting quotas on a per capita basis
were established and at least partly enforced. These limits of a specific
number of tobacco plants per person was apparently the first attempt at
control of production of any agricultural crop in America.

The federal government has operated programs continuously since the early
1930's to support and stabilize tobacco prices. There have been many
legislative changes in these programs over the years. The Agricultural
Adjustment Act of 1933 provided cash payment to growers who restricted
production. Marketing quotas were authorized in 1938. Legislation in 1962
permitted lease and transfer of acreage allotments.

In the seventeenth century, colonists usually packed their tobacco in
hogsheads, consigned it to an English merchant who sold it on a commission
basis and supplied needed manufactured goods in return. During the eighteenth
century, a method developed whereby a local British agent purchased the crop
and also maintained a ‘store' from which planters secured needed supplies.
After the Revolutionary War, domestic manufacture first assumed importance.
Today, the majority of the crop is marketed to the highest bidder at auction
warehouses. Bidders are usually manufacturers or dealers.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has a continuous
series of tobacco statistics by States for acreage, yield, production, price
and value of production beginning with the 1866 crop.

The tobacco in common use today differs greatly from that the early
Virginia settlers found growing in Indian villages along the James,
Rappahannock, and other rivers of Tidewater Virginia. This was a strong type
belonging to the species Nicotinia Rustica L. and is believed to have
originated in Mexico. The English colonists over time adopted the milder and
more aromatic varieties of the species Nicotinia Tabacum L. that is believed
to have originated in Brazil.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 B-6 NASS, USDA



> National
SS United States
Cc ro cS Santee Department of
A Service Agriculture
Ly _
| rod u ct ] (@) n forage Agricultural
Statistics
Board

Washington, D.C.

RELEASED: December 12, 1988
3:00 P.M. ET

HIGHLIGHTS

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 15.2 million bales, up 3 percent from 1987
and up 2 percent from the November 1 forecast.

ALL DRY EDIBLE BEAN production is forecast at 19.1 million cwt, down 26 percent
from last year and 16 percent below two years ago.

BURLEY TOBACCO production is forecast at 459 million pounds, 9 percent above
1987 but unchanged from the November 1 forecast.

ORANGE production is forecast at 215 million boxes, down 1 percent from
October 1 but 9 percent above last season.

GRAPEFRUIT production, including California's Desert grapefruit but excluding
California's "Other Areas" crop, is 63.7 million boxes, 4 percent below
the November 1 forecast but ] percent greater than last season.

RIK II KIKI II IIR IISA IIIA IIA IIIA IRI IR IKI IIA III IKI III III SII II INIA IK.

* NOTICE *
x *
* Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports *
* should be directed to Agricultural Statistics Board Publications, Room *
* 5829-South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250. (202) 447-4021. *
* *
* This report and other statistical, economic, marketing and news reports*
* are available electronically as soon as possible following release *
* through USDA's EDI SERVICE. For more information, call or write: *
* Russell Forte, (202) 447-5505, OGPA, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250. *

*

*

* The next issue of this report will be published January 11, 1989
EKKKKHKKE RK KK KEK KK REREKRIR IRE RAR IRI IER IKEA IK IR RRR IK BER IIR ERIK IRIE IK IRI

CrPr 2-2 (12-88) For Information Cal]: (202) 447-2127


6-87 AND 1987-88

19
Y MONTHS.

FARM MARKETIN!

STATE AND

MARKETING

YEAR

PERCENT

1986-87
1986-87
1987-88 :

CALIF 1986-87 +

ARIZ
ARK

1987-88 :

woo

en

e+

oe

1986-87 :

GA

1987-88 :

IDAHO 1986-87 :

an

ne@

1987-88 :

ory

1986-87
1987-88

TLL

1986-87 :

IND

1987-88 :
1986-87 ;

on

TOWA

1987-88 :
1986-87 :

1987-88

KANS.

1986-87 :

wwe

1987-88 :

ky

1986-87

MICH

1987-88

1986-87

MINN

1987-88 :
1986-87 :

wo

Mo

1987-88 :
1986-87 :

1987-88

MONT

1986-87
1987-88

NEBR

oo

ao

1987-88 :

1986-87 :
N MEX 1986-87

NEV

1987-88 :
1986-87 :

co

cr

1987-88
N OAK 1986-87 :

NY

1987-88 :

on

oo

10

1

20

1986-87 :
1987-88

OHIO

wo

oo

on

no

1986-87 :
1987-88 :

OKLA

1986-87 :
1987-88
1986-87
1987-88

S DAK 1986-87

+O

OREG

oo

oo

om

on

eo

PA

13
10

7

20

19
14

1987-88 :

oo

we

1986-87
1987-88

TEX

1986-87 :
1987-

UTAH

BB:

wo

oo

oo

1986-87
1987-88
1986-87
1987-88

WASH

WIS

1986-87
1987-88

WYO

usoa

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS,

A-12

CROP PRODUCTION,
DECEMBER 1988


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AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA

A-11

DECEMBER 1988

CROP PRODUCTION,


PECANS

: 1,000 POUNDS

ALA : 9,600 13,750 8,800
ARK : 900 800 2,300
FLA : 3,100 3,100 3,400
GA : 100,000 100,000 100,000
LA : 4,000 2,500 4,000
MISS : 4,500 8,000 8,000
N MEX : 27,000 25,000 26,000
NC 2s : 1,800 1,200 1,700
OKLA : 1,500 1,000 2,000
Sc : 3,250 2,300 3,100
TEX : 27,000 22,000 30,000
us : 182,650 179,650 189,300
NATIVE & SEEDLING: :
ALA : 6,400 11,250 2,200
ARK : 300 500 700
FLA : 2,400 2,400 2,400
GA : 20,000 15,000 10,000
LA : 26,000 16,500 26,000
MISS : 3,000 4,000 5,000
NC 2/ : 2,200 800 1,800
OKLA : 13,500 11,000 25,000
SC 3,250 1,100 1,400
TEX 13,000 20,000 13,000
us 90,050 82,550 87,500
ALL:
ALA 16,000 25,000 11,000
ARK 1,200 1,300 3,000
FLA 5,500 5,500 5,800
GA : 120,000 115,000 110,000
LA : 30,000 19,000 30,000
MISS : 7,500 12,000 13,000
N MEX : 27,000 25,000 26,000
NC 2/ 4,000 2,000 3,500
OKLA 15,000 12,000 27,000
sc 6,500 3,400 4,500
TEX 40,000 42,000 43,000
us 272,700 262,200 276,800

1/_ BUDDED,GRAFTED,OR TOPWORKED VARIETIES. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR
CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

FRESH PRODUCTION

ocT 4,070 4,480 2,325 2,300 5,900 5,330
NOV 4,095 2,445 5,940 5,600
DEC 4,135 2,240 5,990 5,300
JAN 4,010 5,000
FEB 2,930 4,500
MAR 3,150 4,600
CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-NOV 50,010 50,660

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
DECEMBER 1988 A-8 NASS, USDA


COTTONSEED: Production for the 1988 crop, based on a three year average lint-
seed ratio, is forecast at 5.95 million tons, 3 percent above the
1987 production of 5.77 million tons.

BURLEY TOBACCO: Production of burley tobacco is forecast at 459 million

pounds, 9 percent above 1987 but unchanged from the November 1
forecast. Yield per acre is expected to average 2,053 pounds, 110 pounds more
than a year ago.

Burley auction markets opened November 2]. Gross sales for the first 10
days totaled 311 million pounds compared with 292 million pounds for the first
10 sales days a year ago.

ORY BEANS: Production of dry edible beans is estimated at 19.1 million ewt,

down 26 percent from last year and 16 percent below two years
ago. Area for harvest is set at 1.37 million acres, down 19 percent from last
year while the average yield is pegged at 1,393 pounds per acre, a drop of 9
percent from last year.

Hopes faded for late fields in Michigan as rains kept harvest equipment
out of the fields during November. Production there has sunk to its lowest
level since 1917. Harvest is finished in nearly all other States and is
drawing to a close in California. Summer drought had earlier devastated
fields across the northern part of the U.S. leaving dry bean production at a
fraction of Tast year’s output. Michigan and Minnesota production dropped
nearly 60 percent and North Dakota dropped nearly 50 percent from last year.

Production of navy beans fell more than half when compared with last
year. Black turtle soup and cranberry bean production dropped more than 60
percent, Pintos were off one-fourth; while kidney and pink classes were down
one-third. On the up side, a Strong showing in Nebraska kept great northern
bean production 16 percent above last year. Small reds gained 29 percent;
while output of California lima beans were up substantially. Black-eyed
(peas) beans also showed a modest gain in California.

PECANS: The December 1 forecast for the pecan crop in the 11 estimating States
is 277 million pounds, in-shell basis, 6 percent higher than last
year's production and 2 percent above the 1986 crop.

The Georgia forecast is 110 million pounds, 4 percent less than this
year's October 1 forecast and the previous year's production. Weather
conditions during November were generally favorable for harvest, but progress
was Slower than normal most of the month. Harvest was about two-thirds
complete by December ]. Nut quality is good, but size and weight are less
than earlier expected. Drought early in the season is the main cause for the
smaller size and lighter weight nuts. Also, some varieties had less nuts in
the tops of the trees than first expected. Alabama's forecast of 11.0 million
pounds is 56 percent below last year. A heavy 1987 pecan crop combined with
drought conditions during the spring months of 1988 caused this substantial
drop in production. Louisiana's forecast is 30.0 million pounds, 58 percent
above the 1987 crop. The pecan crop was over 50 percent harvested as of
December 1. Meat quality has been much lower than expected. The Mississippi
crop is placed at 13.0 million pounds, 8 percent above last year. New Mexico
pecans are forecast at 26.0 mitlion pounds, 4 percent above last season.
Ideal conditions have helped harvest get well underway throughout New Mexico.
Quality has been excellent. Oklahoma's crop is forecast at 27.0 million
pounds, a 125 percent increase from last year. Harvest accelerated due to the
recent cold weather. The South Carolina forecast is 4.50 million pounds, 32
percent above last season. This year's crop appears to be two to three weeks
late. Nut size is smaller than usual but meat quality is good. Texas is
forecasting 43.0 million pounds, up 2 percent from 1987 production. Harvest
has made good progress in most areas. Native yields are down due to dry
weather, Improved varieties are yielding higher.

PAPAYAS: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is forecast at 5.30 million
pounds in December, 12 percent lower than December 1987. A decrease
in fresh output is expected over the next two months. January production is
forecast at 5.00 million pounds followed by 4.50 million pounds in February.
An upturn is anticipated in March with output expected to total 4.60 million
pounds. November fresh utilization is estimated at.5.60 million pounds, 5
percent higher than October but 6 percent lower than last November. Year-to-
date sales were 1 percent greater than the same 1l-month period a year ago.

CROP PROOUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 B-3 NASS, USDA


' U.S. TOBACCO, 1919 - 1987

AREA ~- FLUE-CURED, BURLEY AND ALL OTHER

9 THOUSAND ACRES

ALL OTHER
BURLEY
FLUE-CURED

2000

1500

500

1920 1940 1960 1980

TOBACCO
PRODUCTION BY STATE
1987

PERCENT OF U.S. TOTAL

oS) Mo-+CONN+W VA+MASS

PROPORTION OF THE
REMAINING 7 PERCENT

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 B-9 NASS, USDA



COTTON

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION 1/

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 2/
UPLAND :
ALA : 333.0 360.0 572 507 330.0 397.0 380.0
ARIZ : 289.0 349.0 1,410 1,224 675.0 849.0 890.0
ARK i 550.0 670.0 786 752 602.0 901.0 1,050.0
CALIF : 1,140.0 1,335.0 1,259 1,043 2,245.0 2,989.0 2,900.0
FLA 3/  : 29.0 28.0 646 600 28.0 39.0 35.0
GA : 245.0 320.0 662 525 185.0 338.0 350.0
KANS 3/ : ) 9 480 533 .7 oe) 1.0
LA : 600.0 615.0 782 74) 673.0 977.0 950.0
MISS : 1,010.0 1,180.0 829 753 1,190.0 1,745.0 1,850.0
MO : 189.0 237.0 838 608 196.0 330.0 300.0
N MEX 2 62.0 66.0 689° 727 62.0 89.0 100.0
NC : 95.0 123.0 495 527 109.0 98.0 135.0
OKLA : 400.0 390.0 415 345 210.0 346.0 280.0
sc : 119.0 142.0 428 490 87.0 106.0 145.0
TENN 2 435.0 535.0 700 520 396.0 634.0 580.0
TEX : 4,400.0 5,100.0 506 461 2,535.0 4,635.0 4,900.0
VA 3/ : 1.8 3.0 373 544 1.5 1.4 3.4
US > 9,898.7 11,453.9 702 622 9,525.2 14,475.3 14,849.4
AMER-PIMA :
ARIZ : 90.8 129.7. 1,126 981 148.3 213.0 265.0
CALIF : 9 1.8 1,173 853 0 2.2 3.2
N MEX : 13.9 16.0 642 720 16.6 18.6 24.0
TEX : 31.0 39.5 787 668 41.0 50.8 55.0
ae Ss z 136.6 187.0 1,000 891 205.9 284.6 347.2
ALA z 333.0 360.0 572 507 330.0 397.0 380.0
: 478.7 1,342 1,158 823.3 1,062.0 1,155.0
670.0 786 752 602.0 901.0 1,050.0
1,336.8 1,258 1,042 2,245.0 2,991.2 2,903.2
28.0 646 600 28.0 39.0 35.0
320.0 662 525 185.0 338.0 350.0
+9 480 533 +7 +9 1.0
615.0 782 741 673.0 977.0 950.0
1,180.0 829 753 1,190.0 1,745.0 1,850.0
237.0 838 608 196.0 330.0 300.0
82.0 680 726 78.6 107.6 124.0
123.0 495 527 109.0 98.0 135.0
390.0 415 345 210.0 346.0 280.0
142.0 428 490 87.0 106.0 145.0
535.0 700 520 396.0 634.0 580.0
5,139.5 508 463 2,576.0 4,685.8 4,955.0
3.0 373 544 1.5 1.4 3.4
11,640.9 706 627) 9,731.1 14,759.9 15,196.6

1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED. 2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 A-4 NASS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF ALL WHEAT, BY STATES, 1986-87 AND 1987-88
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE AND
MARKETING EB
YEAR
eee PERCENT.
ARIZ 1986-87 40 7 2 1 1 1 3 1 1 1
1987-88 15 9 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 1
ARK 1986-87 68 18 1 1 1 1 1 2
1987-88 65 18 7 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
CALIF 1986-87 32° «212 8 6 5 3 8 8 5 4
1987-88 32 «212 6 3. 2 4 3 (12 4 1
COLO 1986-87 19-10 7 6 6 8 10 9 YW 6 § 3
1987-88 3 °0°«200 7 6 6 14 («12 6 9 4 6 6
IDAHO 1986~87 6 16 18 8 9 6 9 7 9 2 § 5
1987-88 2 25 20 12 5 5 9 6 3005 5 3
TLL 1986-87 52 20 7 30 2 2 2 5 3 2 1
1987-88 48 17 7 6 1 2 4 7 2 202 2
INO 1986-87 73 7 4 2 3 4 2 1 1 1 1 1
1987-88 74 7 30 2 4 2 2 2 1 1 1
KANS 1986-87 16 20 8 9 7 6 6 9 5 § 4 5
1987-88 12 24 14 7 7 4 9° 9 3 3004 4
MICH 1986-87 47 21 4 5 3 3.05 2 2 2 3003
1987-88 44 19 19 3 3 3.3 2 1 1 1
MINN 1986-87 6 ani 8 8 4 5 8 7 5 7 15 16
1987-88 16 (16 5 5 8 7 5 5 7 10 9
MO 1986-87 59° 16 5 302 1 30 4 1 30 2
1987-88 58 8 7 4 2 5 4 6 2 3
MONT 1986-87 4 7 10 7 1110 10 10 8 8 9
1987-88 5 10 9°11 6 8 13 9 8 7 7
NEBR 1986-87 30 7 4 3 2 307 6 13005 901
1987-88 29 12 4 4 2 10 9 9 4 3 301
N DAK 1986-87 9 8 12°11 6 10 66 8 6 6 71
1987-88 9 #12 9 8 8 9 5 5 7 5 W112
OHIO 1986-87 65 8 30 2 1 2 4 2 1 1 10
1987-88 60 10 4 1 1 2 4 2 1 2 12
OKLA 1986-87 28 14 5 6 5 3 7 10 7 2
1987-88 22 12 13 7 8 7 1007 4 3003
OREG 1986-87 8 19 11 13 6 8 10 7 5 3 7 3
1987-88 8 12 13 8 4 8 15 3 4 9 8 8
S DAK 1986-87 14 «14 4 2 8 8 6 8 10 8 12 6
1987-88 14 14 8 4 4 11 14 6 5 5
TEX 1986-87 37° («17 4 2 2 1 4 3 1 1
1987-88 45 26 9 2 2 1 2 2 3 1
WASH 1986-87 4 23 22 11 7 7 8 7 5 2 3
1987-88 2 19) 17) «12 4 6 15 3 2 7 5 8

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 A-15 NASS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF CORN FOR GRAIN BY STATES, 1986-87 AND 1987-88
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE AND : 3 pot : toot : : : toot
MARKETING :AUG:SEP :OCT:NOV :DEC :JAN:FEB :MAR :APR:MAY :JUN :JUL:AUG :SEP
YEAR 3 : : : : : 3 H 4 : : 3

PERCENT

COLO 1986-87 : 9 17 40617 «9 5 6 6 5 5 4 3
1987-88 : 9 16 10 14 10 9 6 6 10 3.4 3

GA 1986-87 : 46 21 5 2 1 2 2 3 54 4 5
1987-88 : 18 18 12 2 3.5 6 7 3. 6 8 12

ILL 1986-87 : 6 9 8 6 12 9 12 12 8 7 5 6
1987-88 : 8 12 4 5 18 8 1 8 9 §

IND 1986-87 : 7 14 «13 7 10 10 9 8 6 7 4 5 .
1987-88 : 7 11 6 4 11 12 10 6 n 9 8

IOWA 1986-87 : 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 13 10 9 7 8
1987-88 : 1 1 7 4 9 6 8 6 8 12 11 8

KANS 1986-87 : 9 13°11 12 10 5 7 7 6 9 5 6
1987-88 : 13 22 «#210 13,17 8 6 2 2 4 1 2

KY 1986-87 : Woo 4 5 13 8 13 12 8 4 6
1987-88 : 1306130 «3 5 17 18 8 7 4 3. 4

MICH 1986-87 : 8 14 17: 12 «10 = «10 6 5 5 4 3 6
1987-88 : 10 19 7 11° 8 6 8 4 8 7 6 6

MINN 1986-87 : 4 10 7 8 7 1 8 10 9 9 12 5
1987-88 : 10 7 3°97 9 7 6 8 W 2 1 9

MO 1986-87 : W212 11 13°59 #7 8 6 4 5 6 7
1987-88 : 7 15 7 6 12 8 9 5 4 6 4 7

NEBR 1986-87 : 8 11 12 14 «9 6 7 9 8 5 5 6
1987-88 : 9 9 8 12 8 8 7 9 WW 8 5 6

NC 1986-87 : 37. 24 5 4 6 5 2 1 3 6 4 3
1987-88 : 3300-21 3.03 ~=«5 4 3° 6 5 6 6

OHIO 1986-87 : 7 17 14 9 11 8 8 7 6 5 4 4
1987-88 : VW 24 12 5 8 5 6 4 6 8 6 5

PA 1986-87 : 15 15 9 4 4 7 9°11 9 6 5 6
1987-88 : 10 9 7 9 5 12 #10 10 10 9 3 6

S DAK 1986-87 : 112i 9 8 4 9 6 6 6 4 7 9
1987-88 : 19 10 6 6 6 7 6 5 8 8 7 12

TEX 1986-87: 15 11 21 24 4 6 4 14 q 1
1987-88 : 17. 7 16 6 7 10 4 3 3.92 12 13

WIS 1986-87 : 7 14 13,10 8 6 7 7 8 5 8 7
1987-88 : W114 6 6 7 8 6 9 12 9 6 6

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

DECEMBER 1988 A-17 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP : : : : INDICATED
: 1987 : 1988 : 1987 : 1988
eee HECTARES
ALL COTTON : 4,211,690 4,920,550 4,061,180 4,710,960
UPLAND : 4,155,880 4,840,500 4,005,900 4,635,280
AMER-PIMA : 55,810 80,050 55,280 75,680
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1/ : 728,680 616,910 683,280 556,040
BURLEY TOBACCO : 87,330 90,450

1/ 1987 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION

INDICATED

NOV 1,

ALL COTTON : 79 -70 3,213,590 3,230,290 3,308,670

UPLAND : +79 +70 3,151,630 3,150,340 3,233,080
AMER-PIMA > 1.12 1,00 61,960 79,950 75,590
COTTONSEED : 5,233,550 5,264,390 5,398,660
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1/ > 1.72 1.56 1,175,210 907,680 868,180
BURLEY TOBACCO 2: 2.18 2.30 190,220 208,150 208, 150

PECANS : 118,930 3/128,590 125,550

CITRUS FRUITS 2/ . : 1987-88 1988-89 1988-89

ORANGES : 7,672,100 3/8,425,900 8,347,900
1/1987 REVISED, _2/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN
AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR. 3/ OCTOBER 1,
1988.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 A-3 NASS, USDA


During the eighteenth century, Virginia and Maryland grew the bulk of the
country's crop. At the outbreak of the Revolutionary War, about 100 million
tons were exported annually. Soon after the war, culture began to expand into
other areas. Today, nearly two-thirds of the production comes from Kentucky
and North Carolina. Most of the remainder comes from Georgia, South Carolina,
Tennessee, and Virginia. Another 10 States also produce tobacco but their
combined total only accounted for 7 percent of the total 1987 national output.
These States are Pennsylvania, Florida, Maryland, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri,
Connecticut, West Virginia, Indiana, and Massachusetts.

Tobacco seeds are so small that one ounce contains 300 to 350 thousand
seeds. This seed is sown in seed beds. These beds are covered with cloth or
plastic. The tobacco plants are transplanted to the fields when they are 6 to
8 inches high. Spacing varies with the type of tobacco but 5000 to 11000
plants per acre is common. Two methods of harvest are employed, "priming" and
“stalk cutting". In 'priming', leaves are picked individually from the plant
as they mature. Flue-cured and cigar wrapper are harvested in this manner.
With ‘stalk cutting’, the entire plant or Salk is cut. Burley, Maryland, fire-
cured, dark air-cured and cigar leaf are harvested this way. There are 3 basic
methods of curing tobacco. In air-curing, the tobacco is primarily cured with
natural air. In flue-curing, air heated at gradually increasing temperatures
is used to cure the leaf but the tobacco is not subjected to smoke. Fire-cured
tobacco is mostly cured with wood fires and the smoke comes in contact with
the leaf.

The characteristics of tobacco vary with strain, soil, climate, method of
growing, topping, curing, and handling. Tobacco is really a group of crops
with each having its distinctive characteristics and uses. Consequently, these
individual crops are divided into a complex series of classes, sub classes and
types. Beginning with 1919 crop, the NASS series of statistics was expanded
from ‘All Tobacco’ to include detail by type and class. A total of 7 classes
and 29 types were established. Over the years, the number of types being
produced has declined. Currently, 6 classes and 18 types are included in the
NASS estimates.

When estimates by type and class began in 1919 a breakdown of production by
types put 33 percent into flue-cured, 21 percent into burley, 20 percent was
dark fire-cured, 15 percent was cigar types, 9 percent dark air-cured, and 2
percent was in the remaining types. This distribution has shifted over the
years and that in 1987 flue-cured accounted for 58 percent of the total, burley
35 percent and other types 7 percent.

The acreage devoted to tobacco tended upward from 1866 until it leveled
out somewhat from 1919 thru 1954 and has tended downward since. Acreage peaked
at 2.12 million acres in 1930. On the other hand, yield per acre remained
rather static with most years averaging 600 850 pounds per acre from 1866 to
the early 1930's. With acreage controls, fertilizer, insecticides and improved
varieties; yields began to climb until reaching a plateau of around 2000 pounds
where it remains today. The highest average yield per acre was 2197 pounds in
1985 and the lowest was 575 pounds in 1874. The resulting production gradually
increased until the late 1940's at which time it leveled out. A decline during
the 1980's is apparent. Prices averaged 6 to 12 cents per pound most years
from 1866 thru 1915, then rose to 31.2 in 1919, dropped to 8.2 in 1931 and have
increased quite steadily since. The lowest average price was 5.4 cents per
pound for the 1877 crop and the highest was 180.6 cents for the 1984 crop.

Three of the following charts show tobacco area, production and price over
time. The pie chart depicts 1987 production by State.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
DECEMBER 1988 B-7 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED

CROP INDICATED
1987 1988 =: (1987 1988
OT ESS"73000 ACRES
ALL COTTON > 10,407.2 12,158.8  10,035.3 11, 640.9
UPLAND > 10;269.3 11,961.0 93898.7 11,453.9
AMER-PIMA : 137.9 197.8 136.6 187-0
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1/ 1,800.6 1,524.4 1,688.4 1,374.0
BURLEY TOBACCO : 215.8 223.5

1/ 1987 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
{DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE PRODUCTION
CROP : A : INDICATED
AND 2 : INDICATED: :
UNIT : : 1988 : 1987 > NOV I, DEC 1,
: H 1988 1988
1,000
ALL COTTON BALE Vt 706 627 14,759.9 14,836.6 15,196.6

UPLAND « V/: 702 622 14,475.3 14,469.4 14,849.4

AMER-PIMA " 1/: 1,000 891 284.6 367.2 347.2
COTTONSEED TON 3 5,769 5,803 5,951
ORY EDIBLE :

BEANS 2/ CWT 1/: 1,535 1,393 25,909 20,011 19,140
BURLEY TOBACCO LB : 1,943 2,053 419,360 458,885 458,885
PECANS . : 262,200 4/283,500 276,800
CITRUS FRUITS 3/ : 1987-88 1988-89 1988-89

ORANGES BOX : 197,740 4/217,050 215,150

1/_ YIELD IN POUNDS. 2/ 1987 REVISED. 3/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF
THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN ANDO ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING
YEAR. 4/ OCTOBER 1, 1988.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with ]
related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Agricultural Statistics Board which consists of
commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

APPROVE D: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD:
Rich D. Allen, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

Robert L. Addison, Thomas E. Kurtz,
O Donald M. Bay, Hugh M. McWilliams,
comet Arvin R. Budge, Archie J. Olson,

S. Radley Edwards, Darwin E. Ransom,
: Robert L. Freie, James L. Smith,
. Carol C. House, John D. Witzig.
' ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

DECEMBER 1988 A-2 NASS, USDA



INDEX

PAGE
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE .cececeeeeeece cece cece seen ence ce seneeseeneneeenenees A- 5
BEANS, BY CLASSES .......-. ese ee een cee eeees a eseeceeees se ecenes seeeeee ADT
CITRUS FRUIT ......44- ee eee eee eee eee eee eee eee A- 9
COTTON . cece cece cece cnerecececeeereteens eee reer ere err eey soeeeccees A- 4
COTTONSEED co.cc eeceeesceccececcccececees see eeeeeeee see eereeesee seeeeee An 4
CROP MARKETING SEASONS ....cceececccccnsereercrcccteresteteectateeeees A-10
FARM MARKETINGS ...ccsccececccsceccnccteccecseceneraneenneeeaseeseacees A-11
PAPAYAS .ccccececccecccccccneeerceneeeteeeeneeeereetereeeenes beeeeeeeee A- 8
PECANS wccecccncecccncccncererscrecer ete een este tne eeees een een eeeseeetes A- 8
RELIABILITY STATEMENT ....eeeeeeeeeeee eee es oe seeeeeee B- 2
TOBACCO, BURLEY ...eeeececceceeeceeene be eeveeeeees toe eeccecevecscescees A- 5
TOBACCO, HISTORIC REVIEW ........eeeee Peeeere ere Terre rT errr rere ree ees B- 6
US SUMMARY ...ccveeeeeeee seeeee rrr rrr sree Terre er rer eee eee rere eee A- 2
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

DECEMBER 1988 B-10 NASS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF BARLEY BY STATES, 1986-87 AND 1987-88
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS
STATE AND: : : : : : : : : : : : : : .
MARKETING  :MAY :JUN: JUL :AUG:SEP :OCT:NOV :DEC: JAN :FEB :MAR:APR :MAY: JUN
YEAR : : 2 : : : : : : : : : : :

ARIZ 1986-87 : 62 24 1 1] 11 1 2 1 yo]
1987-88 : 78 4 7 11

w

CALIF 1986-87 : 12 +10 5

5 3 6 11 2 6 11 10 19
1987-88 : 31 «14 2 7 3.05 3 2 4 10 16
COLO 1986-87 : 27, «10 «7 9 17. 10 3 2 4 5 on)
1987-88 : 27. «12 °«4 9 18 (13 3 ) 2 1 1 5
IDAHO 1986-87. : 12 #417: «15 =#=11 «(12 6 10 5 4 1 4 3
1987-88 : 5 29 15 10 7 7 13 4 2 3 2 3
MINN 1986-87. : 9 7 § 4 6 10 6 7 9 7 14 16
1987-88 : 12 9 3 4 8 8 3 5 9 6 13 20
MONT 1986-87 : 4 6 8 10 10 12 13 16 12 4 2 3
1987-88 : 4 9 11 #10 6 411 14 6 10 6 6 7
N DAK 1986-87 : 6 16 12 7 7 8 6 11 8 6 5 8
1987-88 : 8 8 5 5 7 9 7 12. 6 18
OREG 1986-87 : 9 21 11 #137 10 5 4 2 6
1987-88 : 11 13°«12~=~=«Wsd2 9 10 12 3. 2 3. 3
S DAK 1986-87 : 8 9 8 6 3 15 5 8 4 5 11 18
1987-88 : 1 14 10 6 5 3.3 6 8 6 8 16
UTAH 1986-87. : 1300915 12 #1 7 9 6 5 7 4 6 5
1987-88 : 16 27° 9 5 5 8 7 6 4 4 4
WASH 1986-87. : 2 13 25 #19 9 6 10 6 5 3 1 1
1987-88 : 3. 23 17: «15 7 7 3 8 3.3
WYO 1986-87 : 7 71 2 1 2 11 1 1 7 11
1987-88 : 13, 70 8 YO] 11 1 1 1 11
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

DECEMBER 1988 A-13 NASS, USDA



FARM MARKETINGS OF FLAXSEED, BY STATES, 1986-87 AND 1987-88
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE AND : : : : : : : : : : : :
MARKETING :JUL : AUG :SEP : OCT :NOV : DEC :JAN : FEB :MAR :APR :MAY : JUN
YEAR : : : : : : : : : : : H

PERCENT
MINN 1986-87 : 2 2 12 50 «10 6 2 2 1 2 2 9
1987-88 : 8 7 16 35 2 5 3 3 6 2 8 5
N DAK 1986-87 : 2 1 9 45 14 9 3 2 2 2 2 9
1987-88 : 8 6 27 24 4 4 5 5 7 6 2 2
S DAK 1986-87: 2 2 44 34 2 1 1 2 3 2 7
1987-88 : 7 18 33 1 4 4° 12 5 4 2

FARM MARKETINGS OF SORGHUM, BY STATES, 1986-87 AND 1987-88
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE AND poo oto ES
MARKETING =: JUN: JUL: AUG: SEP: OCT: NOV: DEC: JAN: FEB: MAR: APR: MAY: JUN: JUL : AUG: SEP
YEAR : : : : : : : : H : : : 3 :
PERCENT
ARK 1986-87 : 42 23 8 4 4 4 3 4 4 2 1 1
1987-88 : 27 24 8 1 10 19 2 #1 1 1 5 1
COLO 1986-87 : 2 16 17 22 4 3 21 7 #2 231
1987-88 : 7 23 8 27 1 2 #71 #4 2 #21 21 «3
KANS 1986-87 : 5 10 22 14 10 6 9 6 4 5 5 4
1987-88 : 8 12 16 16 16 5 6 4 6 5 3 3
MO 1986-87 : 15 13 14 8 6 8 8 3 3 3 5 14
1987-88 : 44 20 7 3 4 4 5 5 1 3 2 2
NEBR 1986-87 : 12 22 12 9 10 6 5 8 8 22 4
1987-88 : 19 14 7 146 6 6 3 5 6 8 5 5
N MEX 1986-87 : 1819 2142 4 4 412 #215
1987-88 : 1 4 23 10 18 2 1 #1 2 35 12
OKLA 1986-87 : 1 6 12 22 24 17 3 3 5 «#1 3 3
1987-88 : 3 5 10 24 23 146 4 4 2 2 2
S DAK 1986-87 : 2 45 28 5 6 5 1 1 3 2 11
1987-88 : 2 5 13 30 10 3 12 4 4 «11 3
TEX 1986-87 : 9 29 12 2 3 18 10 8 3 3 2 1
1987-88: 2 9 13 4 6 19 18 17 4 4 3 #1
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

DECEMBER 1988 A-16 NASS, USDA