CITRUS FRUIT 1/

PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
cROP BOXES ! TON EQUIVALENT
‘AND
ae: :
STATE : 1983-84 : 1984-85 1984-85 : 1985-86
1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES, EARLY MID
& NAVEL 3
ARIZ 550 650 600 21 25 23
CALIF 33,700 26,000 30,000 1,264 975 1,125
FLA 69,700 55,000 71,000 3,136 2,475 3,195
TEX 4 2,400 0 250 102 ) 11
us 106,350 81,650 101,850 4,523 3,475 4,354
ORANGES, VALENCIA
ARIZ 1,250 1,800 1,500 47 68 56
CALIF 14,800 26,000 19,000 556 975 713
FLA 47,000 48,900 61,000 2,115 2,201 2,745
TEX 110 0 200 5 0 9
Us 63,160 76,700 81,700 2,723 3,244 3,523
ALL ORANGES
ARIZ 1,800 2,459 2,199 68 93 79
CALIF 48,500 52,000 49,000 1,820 1,950 1,838
FLA 116,700 103,900 132,000 5,251 4,676 5,940
TEX 2,510 o 450 107 0 20
us 169,510 158,350 183,550 7,246 6,719 7,877
TEMPLES
FLA 2,900 3,250 3,500 130 146 158
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE fy
SEEDLESS 2
FLA 8 23,000 24,800 25,000 978 1,054 1,063
GRAPEFRUIT, PINK =:
SEEDLESS ff
FLA 3 13,400 16,300 16,000 569 693 680
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT:
FLA : 4,500 2,900 3,000 191 123 128
ALL GRAPEFRUIT 2
ARIZ 2 2,270 3,700 2,800 72 118 90
CALIF B/s
DESERT : 3,340 3,900 4,000 107 124 128
OTHER AREAS: 3,900 4,000 131 134
TOTAL : 7,240 7,900 238 258
FLA : 40,900 44,000 44,000 1,738 1,870 1,871
TEX 4s: 3,200 0 500 128 0 20
us z 53,610 55,600 2,176 2,246
TANGERINES + :
ARIZ : 1,150 700 600 43 26 23
CALIF : 1,850 1,680 1,700 70 63 64
FLA : 2,000 1,050 1,100 95 350 52
US t 5,000 3,430 3,400 208 139 139
LEMONS z
ARIZ : 4,000 6,000 3,500 152 228 133
CALIF % 17,250 19,800 17,300 655 752 657
us t 21,250 25,800 20,800 807 980 790
TANGELOS 3
FLA 3,600 3,600 3,200 162 162 144

3/

4/
5/

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985

THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR

SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST |S COMPLETED,

NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & AR!Z-75,FLA-90,

TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF
OTHER-67, FLA-85, TEX-80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS &
TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95.

NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA. EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES [N FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEXAS.

DUE TO THE SEVERE FREEZE OF DECEMBER 1983, NO COMMERCIAL
SUPPLIES WERE HARVESTED FOR THE 1984-85 TEXAS CITRUS CROPS.
THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT "OTHER AREAS*
WILL BE AS OF APR 1.

A-20 CROP REPORTING BOARD,

SRS,

USDA


The Texas all orange crop is expected to total 450 thousand boxes, well
below production levels prior to the December 1983 freeze. Last season, no
commercial supplies were harvested in Texas and the utilized crop in 1983-84
was reduced by the Christmas 1983 freeze to 2.51 million boxes.

The October 1 U.S. all orange production forecast has deviated from the
final production by an average of 23.0 million boxes over the past 10 seasons,
ranging from a low of 2.50 million boxes in 1977-78 to a high of 53.0 million
boxes in the 1983-84 season. The large difference between the October 1, 1983
forecast and the final production for the 1983-84 season was the result of the
late December 1983 freeze losses to the Florida and Texas citrus crops.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1985-86 yield projection of

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice is
1.42 gallons per box at 42.0 degree Brix. This yield computation is projected
to the final amount reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association at
the end of the harvest season. The 1984-85 freeze reduced final season
average yield was 1.37582 gallons per box. In 1983-84, the FCOJ final yield
was 1.28931 gallons per box which was also affected by freezing weather.

GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects for the 1985-86 season, excluding California's "Other

Areas" grapefruit, indicate a crop of 51.3 million boxes (1.91
million metric tons), 1 percent less than Tast season but 3 percent above the
1983-84 utilized crop. The California "Other Areas" grapefruit production,
which will be forecast as of April 1, 1986, accounted for 4.00 million boxes
harvested last season and 3.90 million boxes in 1983-84.

Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 44.0 million boxes, the
same as last season but 8 percent above the 1983-84 utilized production. The
Florida white seedless grapefruit forecast is 25.0 million boxes, 1 percent
above last season; pink seedless is 16.0 million boxes, 2 percent below last
season; and seedy grapefruit is 3.00 million boxes, 3 percent more than
1984-85. The Texas crop is forecast at 500 thousand boxes, well below
Production levels prior to the December 1983 freeze. Last season no
commercial supplies were available from Texas due to the same freeze and the
harvested crop of 3.20 million boxes in the 1983-84 season was severely
reduced by the Christmas 1983 freeze. The Arizona crop forecast is 2.80
million boxes, down 24 percent from last season but up 23 percent from 1983-84
utilized production.

LEMONS: The Arizona-California lemon crop (tree crop available for harvest)
totals 20.8 million boxes (717 thousand metric tons), 19 percent

less than the crop harvested during the 1984-85 season and 2 percent below the

1983-84 utilized production. In California, the crop is expected to total

17.3 million boxes, 13 percent less than last season but fractionally above

1983-84. Harvest has begun in all areas, although it is very light in the

Central Valley.

In Arizona, a tree crop of 3.50 million boxes is expected, 42 percent less
than the crop utilized tast season and 12 percent Jess than the utilized
production in 1983-84. Harvest is underway, but on a limited scale at this
time,

TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-early citrus, is forecast at
3.20 million boxes, (131 thousand metric tons) 17 percent below
both last season and the 1983-84 season.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


COTTON

PRODUCTION 1/

YIELD

IND :
1985 : 1984

1,000 BALES 2/

1,000 ACRES POUNDS

ALA 3 307.0 293.0 699 696 183.0 447.0 425.0
ARIZ t 429.0 409.0 1,227 1,267 725.0 1,097.0 1,080.0
ARK : 465.0 440.0 632 665 323.0 612.0 610.0
CALIF 3 1,400.0 4,340.0 999 1,110 1,971.0 2,913.0 3,100.0
FLA 3B/ 17.0 21.5 847 781 15.2 30.0 35.0
GA 2 172.0 784 720 112.0 281.0 390.0
KANS 3/ : 23 288 480 2 3 8
LA 2 645.0 786 643 532.0 1,056.0 850.0
MISS 3 1,032.0 1,040.0 767 785 900.0 1,650.0 1,700.0
MO 3 162.0 152.0 554 553 73.0 187.0 175.0
N MEX 3 69.0 55.0 605 655 70.0 87.0 75.0
NC 3 96.0 88.0 600 627 43.0 120.0 115.0
OKLA 3 375.0 365.0 234 362 145.0 183.0 275.0
sc : 104.0 122.0 785 708 53.0 170,0 180.0
TENN 2 325.0 330.0 498 553 151.0 337.0 380.0
TEX ’ 4,700.0 4,700.0 376 419 2,380.0 3,680.0 4,100.0
vA 3/ i: 1.0 1.3 528 591 3 Tal 1.6
us : 10,299.5 10,252.6 599 632 7,676.7 12,851.4 13,492.4
AMER=-PIMA
ARIZ : 50.3 59.5 841 863 46.9 88.1 107.0
N MEX F) 10.0 7.7 595 655 15.8 12.4 10.5
TEX : 19.3 18.9 744 711 32.0 29.9 28.0
us 2 79.6 86.1 786 611 94.7 130.4 145.5
ALL
ALA 3 307.0 293.0 699 696 183.0 447.0 425.0
ARIZ 3 479.5 468.5 1,187 1,216 T7149 1,185.1 1,187.0
ARK 2 465.0 440.0 632 665 323.0 612.0 610.0
CALIF 3 1,400.0 1,340.0 999 1,110 1,971.0 2,913.0 3,100.0
FLA 3/3 17.0 21.5 847 781 15.2 30.0 35.0
Ly 2 172.0 260.0 784 720 112.0 281.0 390.0
KANS 3/ : 5 8 288 480 +2 3 8
LA 2 645.0 635.0 786 643 532.0 1,056.0 850.0
MISS 3 1,032.0 1,040.0 767 785 900.0 1,650.0 1,700.0
MO 3 162.0 152.0 554 553 73.0 187.0 175.0
N MEX 3 79.0 62.7 604 655 85.8 99.4 85.5
NC 2 96.0 88.0 600 627 43.0 115.0
OKLA : 375.0 365.0 234 362 145.0 275.0
sc 3 104.0 122.0 785 708 53.0 180.0
TENN 3 325.0 330.0 498 553 151.0 380.0
TEX : 4,719.3 4,718.9 377 420 2,412.0 3,709.9 4,128.0
VA 3/3 1.0 1.3 528 591 . 1.1 1.6
us : 10,379.41 10, 338. 7 600 633 7,771.4 12,981.8 13,637.9

1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED.
2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

1,000 TONS

5,149

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


: AREA HARVESTED YIELD : PRODUCTION 1/. 2/
STATE pore e eee n nnn n ewe nereeneee Se eae

: : IND : IND : IND

: 1984: 1985 : 1984 : 1985 1984: | 1985
— : 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS .
CALIF 3/ al 2,000 685 200
IDAHO : Bat 3.1 1,750 1,620 6,264 5,425 5,022
OREG : 4.9 5.5 1,420 1,470 10,017 6,958  |8,085
WASH : 22.7 19.5 1,920 1,870 51,145 43,584 36,465

30.8 28.1 1,824 1,764 68,111 56,167 49,572

1/ QUANTITIES AVAILABLE FOR MARKET WILL BE GOVERNED
BY REGULATIONS ISSUED UNDER FEDERAL MARKET ORDER 991.

2/ INCLUDES HOPS LOST BY FIRE(POUNDS): 1983-OREG 1,000,000,
WASH 20,000; 1984~10,000.

3/ 1985 DATA COMBINED WITH WASHINGTON TO AVOID DISCLOSURE
OF INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONS.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/

AVERAGE
1974-83

AVERAGE
1974-83

3 PERCENT
ALA 3 74 83 96 66
ARIZ 3 72 85 86 86
ARK 3 69 74 69 77
CALIF : 78 76 89 87
COLO 3 71 83 84 75
CONN 3 78 75 71 75
DEL z 75 68 51 68
FLA 2 82 83 77 65
GA 2 669 69 48 81
IDAHO: 83 86 90 76
TLL 2 75 78 82 67
iND : 80 85 74 97
1OWA 58 70
KANS 3 82 57
KY 3 60 81
LA 3 37 66
MAINE =: 95 80
: 90 81
3 79 77
: 81 61
3 74 64
3 82 88
z 87 49
66 76

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64; SEVERE
DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-24 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


R ACRE AND PRODUCTION

UNITED STATES CROP suman > YIELD.

Pp
DOMESTIC UNITS

CORN FOR GRAIN Bu
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN "

115.1 7,656,195 8,602,994
69.6 865,856 > 1,127,006
37.4 2,595,479 2,400, 3296 2,418,818

ALL yfiteaT
" 34.8 103,439 100,115 105,627
werner SPRING . 35.3 431,394 460,897 473,907
cw 5,426 137,033 126,121 131,861
SOYBEANS FOR

BEANS 2/ BU 33.9 1, 860, 863 2,062,889 2, 108, 379
FLAXSEED . 13.3 +512 8,512
PEANUTS FOR NUTS LB 2,917 4, 408, 745 4,243,000 4,244,650
SUNFLOWER 2/ “ 1,142 3,744,530 3,362,880
ALL COTTON BALE 633 12,981.8 13,654.9 133637.9

UPLAND . 632 12,851.4 13,512.64 13,492.4

AMER~PIMA . 8n 130.4 142.5 145.5
COTTONSEED TON 5,149 $,422 5,415
ALL HAY " 2.45 150,781 3/148,473 151,220

ALFALFA “ : 3.36 3.27 90,017 3/84,471 85,901

ALL OTHER . : 1.75 1.84 60,764 3/64,002 65,319
ORY EDIBLE BEANS cwT uw 1,425 1,452 20,754 22,260 22,142
SWEETPOTATOES 125 134 12,986 13,897 14,230
TOBACCO LB 2 2,182 2,183 1,727,306 1,528,597 1,529,156
SUGARBEETS TON : 20.2 20.9 22,177 22,763 22,982
SUGARCANE FOR :

SUGAR AND SEED " : 36.6 37.1 27,340 27,359 28,091
HOPS Le: 1,824 1,764 56,167 50,860 49,572
PASTURE AND :

RANGE FEED 4/ PcT : 66 76
APPLES, COM'L LB: 8,285,500 3/8,072,000 8,114,500
GRAPES TON : 5,163.9 5,535.4 5,410.4
SWEET CHERRIES 5/ " : 181.8 132.9
TART CHERRIES 5/ LB: 271,600 280,900
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) TON 49.0 49.6 50.0
PECANS LB 232,400 261,800 262,700
FILBERTS TON 13. . .
CITRUS FRUITS 6/ 1985-86 1985

ORANGES BOX

LEMONS ”

17. YIELD IN POUNDS. 2/1984 REVISED. 3/ AUG 1, 1985. 4/ PASTURE AND
RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1974-83 AVERAGE IS 74 PERCENT.
5/ CARRIED FORWARO FROM CHERRY UTILIZATION REPORT RELEASED OCT 4, 1985.

6/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE
COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE

INDICATED
1985 Vv

INDICATED
1985 1/

OATS BU : 58.1 61.4. 471,921 537,443

BARLEY " : 53.4 50.9 596,546 598,840
WINTER WHEAT ” : 40.0 38.2 2,060,646 1,839,284
RYE ” : 33.0 28.5 32,392 19,298
POTATOES :

WINTER 2/ CWT: 203 204 2,640 2,691

SPRING " : 275 266 23,798 24,249

SUMMER " : 215 242 23,086 27,310

FALL . : 286 313,088

TOTAL “ : 279 362,612
PEACHES LB: 2,643,800 2,108,500
PEARS TON : 709.6 674.6
APRICOTS " : 127.2 138.8
NECTARINES (CALIF) “ : 183.0 200.0
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF)* : 148.0 135.0
PLUMS (CALIF) : 225.0 165.0
OLIVES (CALIF) " 91.7 80.
ALMONDS (CALIF) LB 587,000 495,000
WALNUTS (CALIF) TON 213.0 215.0

1/7. ESTINATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1985 REVISE

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Prospects in the Central States are forecast at 1.64 billion pounds, up 7
percent from August. 1 and 35° percent from 1984. Picking is. active jn
ichigan. Size, color and quality are excellent, benefiting from timely
rains, warm days‘:and cool nights. Although hail damaged more Ohio orchards
than expected, fruit damage was generally not major. Producers were able to
produce a crop essentially free of disease and insect damage. Color and size
are good. Indiana's crop is reported sizing better than expected and color is
"the best in a long time." There is some hail damage. September rains
improved size in the Wisconsin crop. There has been some wind and hail
damage. Harvest continues active.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 3.41 billion pounds, 3
percent less than the August 1 forecast and 11 percent below the 1984 crop.
Harvest is active in Washington. Fruit size will be larger than last year and
color is excellent. Cool weather and timely September rains improved size in
California. Quality is good. Harvest is underway in Oregon. An outstanding
crop is expected in the Milton-Freewater area with production being much
greater than last year. Idaho's crop generally escaped hail and insect damage
but there has been some wind damage. Harvest is underway.

GRAPES: The final forecast of the U.S. grape crop is 5.41 million tons (4.91
million metric tons), down 2 percent from the September 1 forecast,

but § percent above last year’s crop. The forecast of alt grapes in
California, at 5.00 million tons, is down 2 percent from September 1, but is 8
percent above last year. The California raisin variety grape forecast, at
2.30 million tons, is unchanged from September 1, but is 2 percent above 1984
production. Warm sunny weather during the last half of September aided drying
of. the raisin crop. Crushing of raisin variety grapes for wine totaled about
500 thousand tons by October 1 and cold storage facilities are holding large
quantities of raisin variety grapes for fresh market. The California wine
variety grape forecast, at 2.15 million tons, is down 4 percent from September
1, but is 13 percent more than was produced in 1984. Rain showers had a
delaying effect on harvest in early September but damage to the crop was
minimal. Some localities in the North Coast area received heavy rains and a
few vineyards had moderate damage from berry rot. The San Joaquin Valley
escaped most of the damage, although showers were heavy in localized areas.
Warm, sunny weather during the last half of September aided crop development
and was ideal for harvesting in most grape growing areas. The quality of the
grapes harvested was reported to be very good in most areas. Harvest as of
October 1 was approximately 80 percent complete. The California table variety
grape forecast of 550 thousand tons is unchanged from the September 1 forecast
but is 16 percent more than last year. Unseasonable rain in early September
brought concern to growers with vineyards that had not been harvested, but the
showers were widely scattered resulting in very little damage. Harvest of the
Emporer variety for fresh market use was in full swing by the first of
October. About 170 thousand tons of table varieties had been crushed for wine
by the end of September.

The Michigan grape forecast at 50.0 thousand tons, is down 9 percent from
September 1 but is 2 percent more than in 1984. New York's forecast, at 145
thousand tons, is off 12 percent from September 1, and is 27 percent less than
in 1984. This is the smallest grape crop in New York since 1977, Poor
pollination from cold weather in mid-June reduced berry and cluster counts
more than was realized earlier and the dry summer added to the problem.
However, grape quality is good with harvest at its peak on October 1. The
forecast in Pennsylvania remains at 55.0 thousand tons, 8 percent below last
year. The Washington forecast, at 119 thousand tons, is unchanged from
September 1 but 29 percent less than the 1984 crop.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 8-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


APPLES,

COMMERCIAL 1/

$c 3/
TENN 3/
UTAH 3/
vt

VA

WASH
WeVA
WIs

PRODUCTION

1985

Soo0ouUUNVECccCOUWUD0CD

1
6
8
4
1
2

12
9
5
1
1
1
8
7
9

ADULUNACMOWOUOY

MILLION POUNDS

8.0
485.0
65.0
47.0
13.5

1/ IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES.
2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1983-20.6,1984-14.4.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION,

OCTOBER 1985

A-21

CROP REPORTING BOARD,

SRS,

USDA


Cotton was mostly good during the month. Bolls were opening on 70 percent
of the acreage, slightly ahead of normal. Cotton was 18 percent harvested, 7
points ahead of 1984 and 4 points above the average. Harvesting progress
ranged from none harvested in California and New Mexico to 47 percent
harvested in Louisiana. On September 29, harvest was 9, 10, and 18 points
behind normal in North Carolina, Georgia, and Missouri, respectively.

Sorghum was 58 percent mature by the end of September, compared with 62
percent jast year and average. With 29 percent of the crop cut, harvest
trailed the normal pace in 5 of the 7 major producing States. Normally, 34
percent would be harvested by this date. Harvest was underway in Nebraska and
South Dakota and lagged 9 points behind normal in both States. Frost, the
last week of September, damaged sorghum in northwest Kansas and in Nebraska.

Rice was 68 percent harvested, 7 points ahead of normal and 1984. Harvest
was ahead of norma? in all States, except Louisiana and Texas. Rice harvest
neared completion in Mississippi and Texas.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at a record high

8.60 billion bushels (219 million metric tons), up 12 percent
from last year and 4 percent more than the previous record set in 1982. The
forecast is up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast.

The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at a record high 115.17
bushels, up from 106.6 bushels per acre in 1984. The previous record high
yield was 113.2 bushels set in 1982. In the major producing States, Iowa's
and Wisconsin's yield are each up 4 bushels, South Dakota's yield is up 3
bushels, and in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri yields increased 2 bushels
from September 1.

A killing frost occurred in the western and northern Corn Belt the last
part of the month. Some minor damage may occur to the later maturing fields
but most of the crop was considered mature and safe from any frost damage.
Although maturity of the crop is almost on schedule, the cool wet weather has
held up harvesting, particularly in the western Corn Belt and harvest progress
is running behind normat. In the eastern Corn Belt, harvest is near normal.

Dry weather is needed to enable the growers to get into the fields to harvest
the crop.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION

OCTOBER 1985,
BILLION BLSELS
me

asf
apr

ae

wo

Mme

as

ap
5b
sab

ask

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as
at

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*OCTOBER FORECAST

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA



PECANS

PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE

1,000 POUNDS

AL 17,000 9,000 15,000
ARK 4,750 1,100 1,500
FLA 1,500 2,200 2,000
GA 85,000 100,000 90,000
LA 3,000 1,500 3,000
MISS 5,500 4,000 4,500
N MEX 29,000 24,000 26,000
NC 2/ 500 1,830 400
OKLA 1,000 2,000 2,000
sc 1,000 3,600 1,500
TEX 22,000 20,000 15,000
us 167,250 169,230 160,900
NATIVE & SEEDLING
ALA 7,000 4,000 5,000
ARK 750 400 600
FLA 1,900 2,800 2,000
GA 15,000 20,000 15,000
LA 19,000 3,500 14,000
MISS 2,500 1,500 2,000
NC 2/ 1,100 1,070 200
OKLA 7,000 23,000 16,000
sc 500 1,900 1,000
TEX 48,000 5,000 46,000
us 102,750 63,170 101,800
ALL

24,000 13,000 20,000

2,500 1,500 2,100

3,400 5,000 4,000

100,000 120,000 105,000

22,000 17,000

8,000 6,500

29,000 26,000

1,600 600

8,000 18,000

1,500 2,500

70,000 61,000

270,000 232,400 262,700

1/ BUDDED,GRAFTED,OR TOPWORKED VARIETIES.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PAPAYAS - HAWAII

FORECAST
1985-86

1,000 POUNDS

4,435

SEP : 3,930 35555 2,690 2,550 4,788 35745
ocT : 3,850 2,635 5,458 3,500
NOV : 3,840 25725 53999 3,500
3,756 2,800
2,950 3,700 4,000

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-23 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PRUNES AND PLUMS: Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon,
and Washington is forecast at 50.0 thousand tons (45.4

thousand metric tons). This last forecast of the season is up 1 percent from
the September 1] forecast and is 2 percent above last year's crop. Michigan's
crop of excellent size and quality fruit was virtually picked by October 1.
The warm, dry summer helped prevent disease problems in Oregon. Mid-September
rains caused some splitting but the majority of the crop was harvested.
Harvest was complete in Washington by late September.

PAPAYAS: Fresh papaya output from Hawaii for October is forecast at 3.50

million pounds (1590 metric tons). November production is expected
to be the same as October. This forecast is down 7 percent from September
1985. Production jis anticipated to decline further in December to 2.80
mitlion pounds (1270 metric tons), then take a sharp upswing in January 1986
to 4.00 million pounds (1810 metric tons).

Fresh papaya utilization during September is estimated at 3.75 million
pounds (1700 metric tons), 16 percent less than August 1985 and 22 percent
below September a year ago. Crop area totaled 3555 acres (1440 hectares)
during September. This is a 3 percent decline from the previous month and 10
percent below September 1984. Harvested area, at 2550 acres (1030 hectares),
declined 4 percent from August 1985.

PECANS: The U.S. forecast, at 263 million pounds (119 thousand metric tons)
in-shell basis, is up fractionally from the September 1 forecast and
13 percent above last year's crop.

Georgia's forecast continues at 105 million pounds, 12 percent less than
1984, Alabama's forecast remains at 20.0 million pounds, 54 percent above
last year. The Texas forecast, at 61.0 million pounds, compares with a small
crop of 25.0 million pounds in 1984. New Mexico's crop is forecast at 26.0
million pounds, 8 percent higher than 1984. The crop in Louisiana is expected
to total 17.0 million pounds and Oklahoma's crop is expected to reach 18.0
million pounds.

FILBERTS: The forecast of production in Oregon and Washington, continues at a

record high 24.0 thousand tons (21.8 thousand metric tons), 79
percent more than last year's crop and nearly three times the small crop
harvested in 1983. Harvest went into full swing the last week of September
and is moving very rapidly toward completion, due to ideal weather conditions
and an early harvest bonus offered by handlers.

ORANGES: The first production forecast of U.S. all oranges for the 1985-86

season is 184 million boxes (7.15 million metric tons), 16 percent
higher than last season, and 8 percent above the 1983-84 season. The forecast
for all Florida oranges is 132 million boxes, 27 percent more than last
season's crop and 13 percent above 1983-84. Production of Florida early and
mid-season varieties, at 71.0 million boxes, is 29 percent more than last
season and 2 percent above the 1983-84 crop. Florida Valencia production is
expected to total 61.0 mitlion boxes, 25 percent more than last season's crop
and 30 percent above the 1983-84 production.

California's 1985-86 all orange crop forecast, at 49.0 million boxes, is 6
percent less than last season but 1 percent above the 1983-84 season. The
Navel crop for California is expected to total 30.0 million boxes, 15 percent
more than the 1984-85 crop but 11 percent below 1983-84, California's
Valencia forecast, at 19.0 million boxes, is 27 percent less than last
season's crop but 28 percent more than the smal) crop harvested in 1983-84.
The Arizona all orange crop is expected to total 2.10 million boxes, 14
percent less than last season but 17 percent above the 1983-84 crop. :

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

: 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 cwT
LARGE LIMA:
CALIF : 35.0 45.0 1,800 1,840 463 630 828
BABY LIMA :
CALIF t 27.0 25.0 1,960 2,000 472 529 500
OTHER
CALIF 122.0 100.0 1,590 1,680 1,477 1,940 1,680
ALL :
CALIF t 184.0 170.0 1,684 1,769 2,412 3,099 3,008
COLO 190.0 225.0 1,190 1,680 2,261 2,970
(IDAHO 138.0 118.0 1,790 1,452 2,470 2,065
KANS 12.0 16.0 1,700 126 206 256
MICH 390.0 420.0 1,070 4,550 4,173 5,460
MINN 50.0 64.0 1,400 452 700 896
MONT 8.0 3.8 1,900 37 152 65
NEBR i 170.0 155.0 1,900 2,188 3,230 2,790
NY 2 34.0 34.0 1,250 255 425 357
N_DAK + 200.0 250.0 1,260 1,648 2,520 3,000
UTAK 9.3 8.3 580 a 34 50
WASH 34.0 33.0 2,080 355 707 693
Wyo : 37.0 28.0 2,050 324 759 532
us 1,456.3 1,325.1 1,425 1,452 15,520 20,754 22,142

1/ EXCLUDES BEAKS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEG FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

WINTER POTATOES

WARY ESTED

STATE weeee,
1985 1/

1984 + 1985 17

CALIF
FLA
TOTAL

PRODUCTION

1985 1/
1,000 CwT

CALIF 260 260 1,456 1,404
FLA 160 165 1,184 1,287
TOTAL 203 204 2,640 2,691

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION
IND
1985

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL WHEAT ve

AREA HARVESTED

1,000 ACRES “BUSHELS

ALA 380 400 39.0 33.0. 15,180 = 14,820 13,200
ARIZ 142 112, 90.0 87.5 11,094 = 12,780 9,804
ARK 1,400 570. 44.0 «32.0 «58,500 . 61,600 18,240
CALIF 784 838 78.9 82.0 46,560 61,840 68,716
COLO 3,270 3,540 35.3 40.8 122,103 115,300 164,300
DEL 49 43 41.0 42.0 2,106 2,009 1,806
FLA 2/ 130 29.0 3,770
GA 890 825 35.0 30.0 30,940 31,150 24,750
IDAHO 1,280 1,350 63.6 54.7 91,710 81,400 73,860
TLL 44.0 48.0 64,400 70,400 36,000
IND 46.0 53.0 49,470 48,300 37,100
OWA 35.0 40.0 1,900 3,500 4,480
KANS 38.5 38.0 448,200 431,200 444,600
KY 38.0 35.0 16,120 19,000 10,850
LA 41.0 34.0 7,500 13,120 7,480
MD 43.0 45.0 ° 5,371 6,020 5,850
MICH 57.0 64.0 35,770 45,600 48,000
MUNN 47.3 53.0 78,960 120,711 135,717
MISS 38.0 31.0 20,400 25,080 10,850
Mo 41.0 39.0 70,300 84,050 53,430
MONT 22.6 14.2 136,930 104,655 52,280
NEBR 36.0 41.0 98,900 81,000 94,300
NEV 76.7 70.0 1,260 1,840 1,610
Nd 43.0 44.0 1,520 1,677 1,628
N MEX 26.0 36.0 13,630 11,960 19,800
NY 46.0 48.0 17,360 7,820 6,480
Nc 43.0 30.0 15,980 26,660 22,800
N DAK 32.8 35.2 194,130 284,190 304,400
OH10 44.0 60.0 58,800 48,400 57,000
OKLA 36.0 30.0 150,500 190,800 165,000
OREG 61.8 53.8 65,570 68,945 56,200
PA 38.0 39.0 7,600 8,360 8,190
sc 38.0 27.0 10,500 14,440 11,340
S_DAK 34.4 28.6 89,729 126,038 107,460
TENN 40.0 32.0 19,800 21,400 8,320
TEX 30.0 32.0 161,000 150,000 187,200
UTAH 35.5 36.0 8,027 8,199 9,190
vA 45.0 34.0 14,280 12,375 10,200
WASH 61.4 47.5 172,570 160,350 127,670
W OVA 40.0 45.0 378 400 360
wis 56.6 47.9 5,812 10,018 7,527
WYO 28.6, 24.3 8,964 8,072 7,060
37.4 2,419,824 2,595,479 2,418,818

1/ INCLUDES WINTER WHEAT ESTIMATES FROM SEPTEMBER CROP
PRODUCTION REPORT.
2/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1985 CROP.

WHEAT PRODUCTION By CLASSES, UNITED STATES 1/

WINTER SPRING :

HARD
WHITE 2/: RED 2/

1,000 BUSHELS

1,197,893 504,175 286,236 322,728 72,979 35,813 2,419,824
1,250,527 531,766 278,333 409,036 103,439 22,358 2,595,479
1,239,399 369,952 229,933 449,375 105,627 24,532 2,418,818
1/ WHEAT CLASS ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON VARIETY ACREAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED
AT 5-YEAR INTERVALS FOR ALL WHEAT PRODUCING STATES. THE 5-YEAR VARIETAL

SURVEY DATA ARE ADJUSTED AS OTHER VARIETY SURVEY INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
2/ 1983 AND 1984 REVISED BASED ON 1984 WHEAT VARIETY SURVEY.

3/ INDICATED OCTOBER 1, 1985.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Harvest is underway in all producing States with activities ranging from
just getting started to nearly three-fourths completed. Yields are generally
better than earlier anticipated, with half of the States now expecting record
high yields. Both the Gulf and Atlantic States escaped damage to sweetpotatoes
from hurricanes Elena and Gloria.

Louistana harvest was 72 percent complete at the end of September, a little
ahead of normal. North Carolina progress was also slightly ahead of normal
with nearly one-third of the crop dug. California harvest is in initial
stages, with good crop development in August and September.

TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 1.53 billion pounds (694
thousand metric tons), virtually the same as the September 1 forecast

but down 11 percent from last year's production. The yield is expected to

average 2183 pounds per acre, virtually the same as last year's 2182 pounds.

North Carolina's f.lue-cured harvest Tagged slightly but was about 95
Percent complete on September 29. Cutting of burley was slightly advanced at
96 percent completion. Flue-cured markets were active. Production of all
tobacco is forecast at 544 million pounds, off 8 percent from last year's
total.

Production in Kentucky of all tobacco is expected to total 435 million
pounds. This is a decline of 18 percent from a year ago.

Tennessee tobacco production is estimated at 139 million pounds for 1985.
This compares with 155 million pounds the previous year.

Harvest in South Carolina was mostly complete by mid-September. Markets
were active during September, with prices and quality up from the previous
month. The forecast of 101 million pounds is down 4 percent from 1984.

SUGARBEETS: Sugarbeet production is forecast at 23.0 million tons (20.8

million metric tons), up 1 percent from the September 1 forecast
and 4 percent above 1984. The increase from last year is a result of improved
yield prospects. This year's crop is expected to average 20.9 tons per acre
compared with 20.2 tons a year ago.

Harvest in Minnesota is slightly more advanced than usual. The crop is
expected to set a new record high production for the State.

Virus yellows continue as a siginificant factor in California yields.
Harvest is active in the central valleys.

The Idaho crop continues to progress well with harvest just underway. No
major disease or weather problems reported.

Growers in North Dakota began lifting in early September. Rain and cool
weather have slowed harvest somewhat. However, progress is about the same as
last year. Sugar content is good.

The Michigan crop received abundant rain during September which improved
yield prospects. Harvest began around October 1 and is expected to get in
full swing about mid-month when temperatures drop enough to permit
stockpiling. Production is expected to be a record high for the State.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 28.1
million tons (25.5 million metric tons), 3 percent above the

September 1 forecast and 3 percent larger than the 1984 crop. The increase

from September 1 resulted from improved outlook in both Florida and Louisiana.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



PEANUTS: Production is expected to total 4.24 billion pounds. (1.93 million

metric tons), down 4 percent from last year's record high crop but
29 percent above 1983. Harvested area is estimated at 1.46 million acres (589
thousand hectares), down 5 percent from 1984 but 6 percent above 1983. This
year's anticipated yield of 2917 pounds per acre is a record high, and 39
pounds above the previous record set in 1984.

Southeastern growers (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina) expect
their production to total 2.84 billion pounds, down 8 percent from 1984.
Growers expect to harvest 885 thousand acres this year, 7 percent less than a
year ago. Yield for the 4-State area is expected to average 3211 pounds per
acre, 44 pounds below 1984. In Alabama, conditions were favorable for harvest
during the month and by month's end harvest was about 15 percentage points
ahead of normal. Production in Alabama is set at 622 million pounds, down 4
percent from last year's record production. A record yield of 3050 pounds per
acre is expected. In Florida, harvest was very active-during the month.
Growers are expecting a crop of 222 million pounds, down 10 percent from the
1984 record crop. Harvested area is now expected to total 74.0 thousand
acres, up 3000 acres acres from the September 1 estimate. Ory conditions
during the month in Georgia slowed digging and threshing, but by month's end
digging and threshing were 87 percent and 74 percent complete, respectively,
both well above average. Yield prospects at 3300 pounds per acre continued
good, but were down 75 pounds from the record high yield set in 1984. Growers
are expected to harvest 595 thousand acres, revised down 12 thousand acres
from the September 1 estimate. Conditions were generally favorable in South
Carolina for harvesting during the month. Production is expected to total
33.6 million pounds, down 14 percent from 1984. A record yield of 2800 pounds
per acre was more than offset by a decrease in estimated harvested acreage to
12.0 thousand acres.

The Virginia-North Carolina crop is forecast at 736 million pounds, 2
percent above last year. Area for harvest, at 251 thousand acres, is
fractionally below Yast year; however, yield increased 77 pounds per acre from
1984. Virginia growers are expected to harvest 278 million pounds, up 3
percent from 1984, Production in North Carolina is expected to total 457
million pounds, up 2 percent from last year. As of September 29, digging in
North Carolina had reached 39 percent completion compared with 32 percent last
year.

The Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas) crop is expected to total 668
million pounds, 13 percent above 1984. Acreage for harvest is down 3 percent;
yield per acre, at 2093 pounds, is up 289 pounds from last year. In Oklahoma,
prospects are for a record yield of 2300 pounds per acre. Production is
expected to total 198 million pounds. In Texas, favorable weather conditions
over most of the State increased yield prospects to a record high 2000 pounds
per acre, up 335 pounds from last year. Production is forecast at 440 million
pounds, 19 percent above the 1984 crop.

SUNFLOWER: Production of all sunflower is forecast at 3.36 billion pounds

(1.53 million metric tons}, down 70 percent from 1984 but 5 percent
above 1983. Area for harvest, at 2,95 million acres (1.19 million hectares),
is down 20 percent from a year ago. Prospective yield at 1142 pounds per acre
is 128 pounds above last year. Yield is forecast at 1350 pounds in Minnesota,
1100 pounds in North Dakota, 1180 pounds in South Dakota, and 1300 pounds in
Texas. All States are forecasting improved yields from 1984 except Texas,
which is unchanged. Hard frosts in the northern sunflower States brought an
end to the growing season during the last week of September. Crop development
generally lagged behind normal as cool weather delayed crop maturity. In
North Dakota, only 84 percent of the crop had yellowing bracts as of September
30, compared with the average of 95 percent. Brown bracts were reported on 44
percent of the acreage versus a 67 percent average for September 30.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

CORN FOR GRAIN 1 6.69 7.22 194 476 310 215 109 910 218 526 110
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN : 3.54 4.37 21 993 760 28 927 890 28 627 270
ALL WHEAT : 2.67 2.52 70 637 360 65 325 350 65 829 440
DURUM 2.16 2.34 2 815 150 2 724 680 2 874 700
OTHER SPRING 2.38 2.37 11 740 620 12 543 560 12 897 630
RICE : 5.52 6.08 215 710 5 720 750 5 981 110
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/: 1.89 2.28 50 644 390 56 142 640 57 380 670
FLAXSEED 1 0.82 0.83 178 370 216 210 216 210
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 2 3.23 3.27 1 998 400 1 924 580 1 925 330
SUNFLOWER 1/ > 1414 1.28 1 698 480 1 525 370
ALL COTTON 2 0.67 0.71 2 826 440 2 972 990 2 969 290
UPLAND > 0.67 0.71 2 798 050 2 941 960 2 937 610
AMER-PIMA : 0.88 0.91 28 390 31 030 31 680
COTTONSEED 3 671 090 4 918 760 4 912 410
ALL HAY > 5.49 5.49 136 786 220 2/134 692 440 137 184 480
ALFALFA 7.6 7.32 81 662 050 2/76 630 800 77 928 080
ALL OTHER 4.12 55 124 170 2/58 061 640 59 256 400
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1.63 941 380 1 009 690 1 004 340
SWEETPOTATOES 15.06 589 030 630 350 645 460
TOBACCO 2.45 783 490 693 360 693 610
SUGARBEETS 46.80 20 118 640 20 650 250 20 848 920
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED 83.09 24 802 430 24 819 670 25 483 730
HOPS 1.98 25 480 23 070 22 490
APPLES, COM'L : 3.758 220 2/3 661 380 3 680 660
GRAPES : 4 684 610 5 021 630 4 908 230
SWEET CHERRIES 3/ : 164 930 120 560

TART CHARRIES 3/ : 123 200 127 410
PRUNES AND PLUMS 3

(EXCL CALIF) 44 450 45 000 45 360
PECANS 105 410 118 750 119 160
FILBERTS 12 160 21 770 21:770
CITRUS FRUITS 4/ 1984-85 1985-86 1985-86

ORANGES 6 0

LEMONS 889 040

1/1984 REVISED. 2/ AUG 1, 1985. 3/ CARRIED FORWARD FROM CHERRY UTILIZA-
TION REPORT RELEASED OCT 4, 1985. 4/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE
FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR,

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS) ‘

INDICATED
1985 1/

INDICATED
1985 1/

METRIC TONS

OATS : 2.20 6 849 910 7 800 960
BARLEY 2.74 12 988 260 13 038 200
WINTER WHEAT 2.57 56 081 590 50 057 110
RYE 1.79 822 790 490 190
POTATOES

WINTER 2/ 22.86 119 750 122 060

SPRING 29.83 1 079 450 1 099 910

SUMMER 27.09 1 047 160 1 238 750

FALL 14 201 360

TOTAL 16 447 720
PEACHES 1199 200 956 390
PEARS 643 740 611 990
APRICOTS : 115 390 125 920
NECTARINES (CALIF) : 166 010 181 440
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) =: 334 260 122 470
PLUMS (CALIF) : 204 120 149 690
OLIVES (CALIF) : 83 190 72 570
ALMONDS (CALIF) 2 266 260 224 530
WALNUTS (CALIF)

193 230 195 040

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1985 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED 1/

CROP 3 3 H : INDICATED
3 1984 3 1985 : 1984 3 1985
HECTARES
CORN : 32 550 840 33 677 090 29 063 220 30 253 010
SORGHUM : 6 980 500 7 229 790 6 211 180 6 548 290
ALL WHEAT : 32 056 710 30 661 340 27 085 100 26 138 110
DURUM : 1 326 170 1 267 490 1 302 700 1 227 020
OTHER SPRING :  § 065 500 5 883 380 4 935 600 5 438 220
RICE : 1 134 750 999 580 1 125 850 983 400
SOYBEANS 2/ : 27 419 770 25 584 500 26 755 270 25 181 030
FLAXSEED H 224 600 267 100 217 720 259 410
PEANUTS 3 632 370 611 890 619 580 588 820
SUNFLOWER 2/ : 1.519 210 1 224 190 1 494 120 1:191 810
ALL COTTON : 4 510 440 4 346 010 4 200 310 4 183 960
UPLAND : 4 478 020 4 310 880 4 168 100 4 149 120
AMER-P IMA : 32 420 35 130 32 210 34 840
ALL HAY : 24 922 830 25 010 250
ALFALFA 2 10 849 330 10 643 350
ALL OTHER : 14 073 500 14 366 900
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 605 820 639 610 589 350 617 190
SWEETPOTATOES 3 43 060 44 110 41 890 42 860
TOBACCO 3 320 350 283 530
SUGARBEETS : 453 860 451 960 443 660 445 520
SUGARCANE FOR 3
SUGAR AND SEED 3 302 420 306 710
HOPS H 12 460 11 370

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROPS, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/ 1984 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP : INDICATED
1984 : = 1985 1/ 1984 1985 1/
HECTARES
OATS 5 003 590 5 317 630 3 287 300 3 541 040
BARLEY 4 810 550 5 313 180 4 520 790 4 762 800
WINTER WHEAT 25 665 040 23 510 470 20 846 800 19 472 870
RYE : 1 202 330 1 035 200 397 000 273 980
POTATOES :
WINTER 2/ 3 5 340 5 340 5 260 5 340
SPRING : 650 37 310 35 050 36 870
SUMMER 120 47 020 43 380 45 730
FALL 910 478 060 442 810 469 320
TOTAL 2/ 030 567 740 526 500 557 260

WARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1985 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


TOBACCO

YIELD

1984: 1985

: POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

: 1,595 1,690 3,354 2,824 3,380

: 2,560 2,560 17,628 17,920 15,872
GA : 38,000 37,000 2,250 2,210 96,360 85,500 81,770
IND : 8,100 7,100 2,320 2,350 13,041 18,792 16,685
ky + 228,500 189,100 2,320 2,300 324,602 530,088 434,930
MD : 23,000 21,000 1,320 1,300 29,700 30,360 27,300
MASS : 500 510 1,570 1,670 783 785 852
MO 1/ 2,900 2,700 2,015 2,250 6,417 5,844 6,075
Nc 2 271,600 247,700 2,172 2,195 546,869 590,026 543,702
OH10 : 12,000 8,900 2,209 2,130 17,668 26,507 18,957
PA : 12,000 11,500 1,864 1,950 21,985 22,370 22,425
sc 2 47,000 44,000 2,245 2,300 112,860 105,515 101,200
TENN : 74,990 67,000 2,062 2,080 118,197 154,646 139,360
vA : 53,840 45,600 2,153 2,130 99,052 115,897 97,128
WVA 1/0: 2,400 2,300 1,870 1,600 3,762 4,488 3,680
WIS : 8,000 8,000 1,968 1,980 16,691 15,744 15,840
us 1 791,600 700,610 2,182 2,183 1,428,969 1,727,306 1,529,156

v/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

- SUGARBEETS 1/

1,000 ACRES

CALIF 2 208.0 195.0 24.7 23.5 3,938 5,138 4,583
COLO 2 44.2 2.9 21.8 18.0 603 964 52
IDAHO 3 144.0 152.0 23.0 23.5 3,487 3,312 3,572
KANS : 7.1 0 17.2 0.0 95 122 0
MICH 3 108.0 123.0 19.6 20.0 1,976 2,117 2,460
MINN : 261.0 275.0 16.6 19.0 4,662 4,333 5,225
MONT 3 24.6 42.8 16.9 20.0 818 416 856
NEBR : 67.5 57.0 21.9 23.0 1,233 1,480 1,311
N DAK z 139.1 142.0 16.6 17.5 2,404 2,309 2,485
OH10 2 10.7 12.5 18.8 19.0 222 201 238
OREG : 11.6 11.8 26.5 27.0 316 307 319
TEX t 37.8 37.0 21.8 22.5 622 824 833
WYO 2 32.7 49.9 20.0 21.0 616 654 1,048
us : 1,096.3 1,100.9 20.2 20.9 20,992 22,177 22,982

1/ RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR
OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED BEETS IN CALIF.

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

Ni
1984 : 1985

1,000

FLA 391.0 32.6 33.0 11,552 12,617 12,903
HAW 89.0 91.2 90.0 9,159 8,684 8,010
LA 245.0 22.0 25.0 6,328 5,060 6,125
TEX 32.9 27.9 32.0 1,122 979 1,053
us 757.9 36.6 37.1 28,161 27,340 28,091

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-19 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALA vy
ARIZ 1/
ARK
CALIF. 1/
coLo

GA v/
ILL

ND 2/
|OWA 2/
KANS

KY /
LA

MISS

MO

NEBR

N MEX
NC V/
OKLA
sc v/
S DAK
TENN
TEX

vA 2/
us

a

1,150.0
430.0
528.0
190.0
76.0
408.0
: 2,782.0

3000 ACRES

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

1,030.0
380.0
463.0
185.0

64.0
308.0
2,430.0

BUSHELS
50.0 53.0
85.0 86.0
72.0 72.0
82.0 83.0
37.0 40.0
42.0 43.0
69.0 82.0
65.0
55.0
51.0 71.0
80.0 75.0
65.0 70.0
64.0 67.0
69.0 83.0
64.0 80.0
55.0 56.0
55.0 53.0
40.0 49.0
46.0 45.0
47.0 43.0
80.0 83.0
53.0 66.0
45.0
56. 4 69-6

1984

1985

POUNDS
4,600 5,200
7,040 7,200
4,150 4,550
4,350 5,400
4,600 4,600
4,940 5,500
4,926 5,426

1,000 BUSHELS

4,300
988
17,600
3,645
6,960
2,788
6,552
385

300
121,690
1,927
10,080
12,375
40,020
61,000
6,300
1,386
11,680
900
13,630
5,035
157,500
280
497,521

39,159
23,089
14,693

6,440

2,534
13,805
99,720

9,000
1,360
42,480
3,936
15,910
4,746
19,665
845

660
216,750
9,200
17,485
23,680
91,770
121,600
15,400
2,640
18,000
1,564
18,565
20,800
209,350
450
865,856

FORECAST.

v/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

1/ INDICATED OCTOBER 1,
AVERAGE OF CLASS PERCENTAGES.
BECOME AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON.

CROP PRODUCTION,

RICE PRODUCTION BY CLASSES,

t 97,368
97,960

64,318

19853

OCTOBER 1985

(1,000 CWT)

27,388

32,490
29,104

A-9

UNITED STATES

SHORT GRAIN 3

8,014
7,175

4,797

CROP REPORTING BOARD,

298,200
10,125
29,400
42,210
118,690
152,000
15,960
3,445
20,580
2,250
16,985
37,765

237,600

1127, 006

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1984 CROP.

ALL

99,720

137,033
131,861

RICE CLASS FORECASTS ARE BASED ON A FIVE YEAR
THE CLASS PERCENTAGES ARE ADJUSTED AS DATA

SRS,

USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS*
October 1, 1985

GC

TZ 6000 to excetent =

ZZ] Poor to tale

ver poor

BBB) severe drouctt “As ported by
Crop Correspondents:

FRER Extreme drought

‘rncicatgs current supty of pasture teed for grazing on non-igated pastes and ranges relative to that expected
existing stands under very favorable weather conditions.

USDA SRS

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS*
October 1, 1984

N'

TO 09 to excotent
EZ) Poor to tale

E 3 very poor

(XX) severe drought “As reported by
EE crore cought Crop Correspondents

‘ndicetes crrentsupaly of pasture feed for orazing on non-rigated pastures and ranges relative to that expected
from existing stands under very favorable

USDA SRS

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Crop Production [(Qi= = yas

Agriculture
Statistical Reporting Washington, D.C. 20250
Service
RELEASED: October 10, 1985
3:00 P.M. ET
HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production is forecast at a record high 8.60 billion bushels
(219 million metric tons), up 12 percent from last year and 4 percent more
than the previous record high set in 1982. The forecast is up 2 percent
from the September 1 forecast. The 9G percent confidence interval for
this production forecast is 8.04 to 9.17 billion bushels.

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN production is forecast at a record high 1.13 billion bushels
(28.6 million metric tons}, down 1 percent from September 1 but 30 percent
above last year's crop.

FEED GRAIN production (corn, sorghum, oats and barley) is expected to total 268
million metric tons, up 13 percent from 1984 and nearly double 1983.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at 2.11 billion bushels (57.4 million metric
tons), 2 percent larger than the September 1 forecast and 13 percent more
than 1984. The 90 percent confidence interval for this production
forecast is 1.96 to 2.26 billion bushels.

OILSEED production (soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, flaxseed and sunflower) is
expected to total 66.0 million metric tons, up 11 percent from last year.

FOOD GRAIN production (wheat, rice and rye) now totals 72.3 million metric tons
for 1985, down 7 percent from 1984,

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 13.6 million bales, virtually unchanged
from September 1, but 5 percent above the 1984 crop. The 90 percent

confidence interval for this production forecast is 12.3 to 14.9 million
bales.

ALL ORANGE production is forecast at nearly 184 million boxes (7.15 million
metric tons), 16 percent above last season and 8 percent more than the
1983-84 season.

PEANUT production is forecast at 4.24 billion pounds (1.93 million metric

tons), down 4 percent from the record high crop in 1984 but 29 percent
above 1983.

HAKKAR IIR ERE IRER IIIA RIK IKE II IRIS IIR IRE
NOTICE: The format of Crop Production has been changed -- Commodity
tables, by States, follow the U.S. summary tables (Section A). The
narrative becomes Section 8 of the report.

Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports
should be directed to Crop Reporting Board Publications, Room 5829 -
South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-4021).

kk Ok OF
a ee

Crop Reporting Board reports may be obtained electronically. See

Page A-2 for further information.
kkKRKK: tk: te Ke:

CrPr 2-2 (10-85) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

AREA HARVESTED

1985

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
1,370 1,120 21.0 24.0 30,000 28,770 = 26, 880
3,900 3,700 26.0 25.0 70,300 101,400 92,500
250 240 24.0 = 26.0 7,250 6,000 6,240
325 250 24.0 25.0 7,800 7,800 6,250
GA : 2,000 1,750 20.0 26.0 42,000 40,000 45,500
ILL : 9,020 8,950 31.5 42.0 266,975 284,130 375,900
IND : 4,350 4,460 34.5 40.0 122,450 150,075 178,400
1OWA 2 8,400 8,150 31.5 38.0 278,600 264,600 309,700
KANS : 1,590 1,460 17.5 31.0 24,320 27,825 45,260
KY : 1,460 1,230 29.0 32.0 24,480 42,340 39,360
LA : 2,430 2,190 27.5 26.0 68,120 66,825 56,940
MD : 425 400 29.0 30.0 10,010 12,325 12,000
MICH : 1,190 1,090 27.0 32.0 33,800 32,130 34,880
MINN : 5,240 5,140 33.0 34.0 151,800 172,920 174,760
Miss : 3,200 2,700 24.0 26.0 58,900 76,800 70,200
MO : 5,300 5,180 20.5 35.0 103,000 108,650 181,300
NEBR : 2,550 2,360 26.0 35.0 58,995 66,300 82,600
NJ 2/  ¢ 133 128 31.0 28.0 3,059 4,123 3,584
nc : 1,790 1,730 26.0 26.0 33,000 46,540 ° 44,980
N DAK 2/ : 740 540 23.0 23.0 14,310 17,020 12,420
OHIO : 3,770 3,870 36.5 40.0 104,960 137,605 154,800
OKLA 2/ 220 190 19.0 22.0 3,910 4,180 4,180
PA 2/0 170 170 35.0 29.0 3,480 5,950 4,930
sc : 1,490 1,260 20.0 23.0 23,595 29,800 28,980
S DAK : 1,360 1,260 23.0 31.0 26,103 31,280 39,060
TENN : 1,850 1,360 26.0 28.0 31,520 48,100 38,080
TEX : 410 320 29.0 27.0 9,450 11,890 8,640
VA : 730 695 29.5 29.0 9,760 21,535 20,155
wis) 2/0: 450 330 30.0 13,825 13,950 9,900
us 66,113 62,223 33.9 1,635,772 1,860,863 2,108,379

1/ REVISED.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AREA PLANTED, SUNFLOWER 1/ 1984

1,000 ACRES

MINN 250 14 264
N DAK 2,630 220 2,850
S DAK 597 3 600
TEX 40 40
us 237 3,754

1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


DURUM WHEAT

BUSHELS

90.0 84.0 4,950 7,200

100.0 82.0 6,300 9,400

47.0 49.0 1,225 1,551

17.0 11.0 4,100 3,570

29.0 34.0 54,325 78,590

34.0 30.0 2,079 3,128 2,550
72,979 103,439

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT

PRODUCTION

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
COLO 1/ 2 70 90 70.0 70.0 5,103 4,900 6,300
IDAHO Hy 380 480 65.0 56.0 36,100 24,700 26,880
MINN 2,160 2,350 48.0 54.0 75,110 103,680 126,900
MONT 1,950 2,300 17.5 13.0 53,730 34,125 29,900
NEV / 16 16 75.0 70.0 700 1,200 1,120
N DAK 5,400 5,600 34.0 36.0 135,000 183,600 201,600
OREG 1/ 65 85 43.0 40.0 3,570 2,795 3,400
S$ DAK 1,870 2,150 33.0 29.0 36,400 61,710 62,350
UTAH 1/ 36 40 49.0 47.0 1,377 1,764 1,880
WASH 210 290 55.0 43.0 10,070 11,550 12,470
WIS vA 3 17 17 34.0 31.0 667 578 527
WYO Vv : 22 20 36.0 29.0 714 792 580
us 12,196 13,438 35.4 35.3 358,541 431,394 473,907

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AREA PLANTED, SOYBEANS 1/

1,000 ACRES 1,000 ACRES

ALA : 1,400 5,500
ARK : 4,050 23600
DEL : 260 : 135
FLA : 340 : 1,850
GA : 2,100 : 750
ILL : 93200 : 3,800
IND : 4,400 : 240
IOWA : 8,500 : 175
KANS D 1,700 : 1,520
Ky : 1,520 : 1,400
LA : 2,500 :

MD : 435

MICH : 1,200

MINN 5,300

MISS

1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


COTTONSEED: Production for 1985, based on a three year average Jint-seed
ratio, is forecast at 5.42 million tons (4.91 million metric

tons), 5 percent above the 1984 production of 5.15 million tons (4.67 million
metric tons).

ALL HAY: Production is forecast at a record high 151 million tons (137 million

Metric tons), up fractionally from 1984. Area for harvest,
estimated at 61.8 million acres (25.0 million hectares), is up slightly from a
year earlier,

Dry conditions during the summer months cut the yields for the first and
second cuttings of alfalfa hay in many States, although Yate summer rains
provided good growth for later cuttings.

The largest percentage increases in production from last year are shown
for Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and Mississippi; the largest percentage declines
are shown for South Dakota, North Dakota and Montana.

ALFALFA HAY: Production forecast, at 85.9 million tons (77.9 million metric

tons), is down 5 percent from the record high 90.0 million tons
(81.7 million metric tons) produced in 1984. Area for harvest, at 26.3
million acres (10.6 million hectares) is down 2 percent from a year ago.
Average yield, forecast at 3.27 tons per acre, is down 3 percent from the 3.36
tons per acre harvested in 1984.

ALL OTHER HAY: Production is forecast at a record high 65.3 million tons (59.3
million metric tons), up 7 percent from 1984. Area for harvest

at 35.5 mitlion acres (14.4 million hectares) is up 2 percent from 1984, The

forecasted yield, at 1.84 tons per acre, is above last year's 1.75 tons.

ORY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry edible beans is forecast at 22.1 million

hundredweight (1.00 million metric tons), 7 percent above
1984 but 1 percent below the September 1 forecast. Area for harvest, at 1.53
mitlion acres (617 thousand hectares}, {fs down 10.0 thousand acres from
September 1. The expected yield increased to 1452 pounds per acre, compared
with 1450 pounds forecast on September 1 and 1425 pounds in 1984.

By October 1, harvesting of all dry bean varieties in California is
underway, with yield prospects remaining favorable. Colorado harvest remained
active with nearly all of the crop cut and 65 percent threshed. Harvest of
the Michigan dry bean crop is winding down with some acreage being abandoned
due to heavy rains in September, In Nebraska, weather related harvesting
problems have reduced the quality of dry beans and may increase field losses.
New York bean yields remain light due to dry summer weather. Some frost
damage has occurred in Washington and North Dakota; however, the extent of
damage is unknown.

FINAL WINTER 1985 POTATO production totaled 2.69 million cwt (122 thousand met-

ric tons), up 2 percent from 1984 and 23 percent above
1983, Harvested area was estimated at 13,2 thousand acres (5340 hectares), up
2 percent from 1984 and 17 percent from 1983. The average yield of 204 cwt
per acre is up 1 cwt from the previous year and 10 cwt above 1983.

SWEETPOTATOES: Production of sweetpotatoes is forecast at 14.2 million cwt

(645 thousand metric tons), up 10 percent from last year and 18
percent above 1983, Area for harvest is set at 106 thousand acres (42.9
thousand hectares), up 2 percent from last year; while the forecast yield, at
134 cwt per acre, is a record high.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


COTTON: All cotton production is forecast at 13.6 million bales, virtually
unchanged from September 1? but 5 percent above the 1984 crop. The

Upland production forecast for 1985 is 13.5 million bales and American-Pima is
146 thousand bales.

Area for harvest is estimated at 10.3 million acres (4.18 million
hectares), down fractionally from last year. Expected yield per harvested
acre is a record high 633 pounds, 33 pounds above the previous record
established in 1984. .

In Texas and Oklahoma, Upland production is forecast at 4.38 million
bales, an increase of 13 percent from last year, but down 10.0 thousand bales
from the August 1 forecast. Texas harvest was 18 percent complete by
September 29 compared with 15 percent last year. Some defoliation was
completed in the Cross Timbers and Low Plains and much of the cotton is open
in the High Plains. In Oklahoma, non-irrigated fields received stress during
early September from lack of moisture.

Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee)
expect to harvest 3.81 million bales, 1} percent below last year but 1 percent
above the September 1 forecast. Estimated harvested acreage, at 2.60 million,
is down 40 thousand acres from September 1, based on the latest available
check data. In Arkansas, about 27 percent of the crop had been harvested
compared with 9 percent at this time last year. In Louisiana, harvest was 47
percent complete compared with 13 percent in 1984, the crop condition was
rated mostly fair. Boll rot is more of a problem this year. The Mississipp
crop is rated mostly in good condition with 33 percent harvested compared with
11 percent Yast year. Cotton harvest was running behind normal in Missouri
due to cool weather delaying boll opening.

Growers in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) expect
to harvest 4.28 million bales of Upland cotton, 4 percent above last year but
unchanged from September 1. Harvest is underway in California.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina
and South Carolina) is forecast at 1.11 million bales, up 9 percent from last
year's production and 6 percent from September 1. Harvested acreage is

estimated at 763 thousand acres, up 15 thousand acres from September 1, based
on additional check data.

Bureau of the Census reports 2,432,027 running bales ginned prior to

October 1 compared with 1,174,761 to the same date last year and 762,613 bales
in 1983,

U.S. COTTON PRODUCTION

OCTOEER 1005
WLLION BALES

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a od

af

we

we

eo

ok

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1

n n n n o a 2 a 4 oe
ea

*OCTOBER FORECAST

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

1983 : 1984 : 1985

1,000 BUSHELS

ALA 385 340 65.0 68.0 17,995 25,025 23,120
ARIZ 1/ 26 22 140.0 110.0 2,312 3,640 2,420
ARK vy 49 65 95.0 9t.0 2,640 4,655 5,915
CALIF 375 340 136.0 135.0 33,280 51,000 45,900
COLO 680 725 134.0 140.0 74,420 91,120 101,500
CONN 2/

DEL 150 175 110.0 93.0 10,875 16,500 16,275
FLA 1/7 210 200 65.0 65.0 8,174 13,650 13,000
GA 985 1,000 82.0 80.0 55,125 80,770 80,000
IDAHO 1/ 75 80 118.0 120.0 7,735 8,850 9,600
ILL 10,940 11,350 114.0 131.0 624,100 1,247,160 1,486,850
IND 6,030 6,100 117.0 124.0 340,910 705,510 756,400
1OWA 12,900 13,350 112.0 122.0 743,850 1,444,800 1,628,700
KANS 870 1,050 125.0 130.0 85,560 108,750 136,500
KY 1,460 1,560 100.0 102.0 46,080 146,000 159,120
LA 1/ 82 195 115.0 120.0 5,040 9,430 23,400
MAINE 2/

MD 590 650 118.0 100.0 37,060 69,620 65,000
MASS) 2/

MICH 2,620 2,700 84.0 102.0 165,600 220,080 275,400
MINN 6,440 6,500 107.0 115.0 367,080 689,080 747,500
MISS 1/ 70 120 70.0 68.0 3,520 4,900 8,160
MO 1,930 2,430 80.0 106.0 72,930 154,400 257,580
MONT 1/ 15 14 92.0 105.0 1,365 1,380 1,470
NEBR / 6,950 7,250 115.0 123.0 470,450 799,250 891,750
NH 2,

NJ / 109 114 107.0 101.0 6,120 11,663 11,514
N MEX 1/ 59 65 150.0 160.0 7,000 8,850 10,400
NY 660 750 93.0 92.0 54,000 61,380 69,000
nC 1,620 1,650 90.0 77.0 76,800 145,800 127,050
N DAK 630 650 66.0 65.0 29,145 41,580 42,250
OHIO 3,900 4,000 118.0 128.0 224,000 460,200 512,000
OKLA 1/ 50 55 105.0 112.0 4,144 5,250 6,160
OREG 1/ 42 37 159.0 172.0 5,346 6,678 6,364
PA 7 1,350 1,370 110.0 105.0 72,450 148,500 143,850
RJ 2.

sc 447 520 78.0 85.0 17,050 34,866 44,200
S DAK 2,780 2,860 67.0 77.0 104,410 186,260 220,220
TENN 690 790 95.0 98.0 23,040 65,550 77,420
TEX 1,550 1,450 93.0 100.0 104,760 144,150 145,000
UTAH y 16 17 118.0 122.0 1,540 1,888 2,074
VT 2

vA 540 530 104.0 92.0 16,320 56,160 48,760
WASH 1/ 150 140 155.0 160.0 17,600 23,250 22,400
WVA 1/ 81 81 100.0 102.0 4,680 8,100 8,262
WIS 3,250 3,400 106.0 107.0 223,100 344,500 363,800
WYO / 60 61 100.0 110.0 7,072 6,000 6,710
us 71,816 74,756 106.6 115.1 4,174,678 7,656,195 8,602,994

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


GRAPES

: PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE

TOTAL 1/

: TONS
TAC YPE 2
CALLE : 504,000 475,000 550,000
WINE TYPE :
CALIF : 1,880,000 1,900,000 2,150,000
RAISIN TYPE DRIED 2/3
CALIF 3 396,000 333,000
RAISIN TYPE NOT ORIED :
CALIF : 617,000 870,000
RAISIN TYPE 3/3
CALIF + 2,535,000 2,265,000 2,300,000
ALL :
ARIZ 4/: 14,600 14,000 18,000
ARK 4/: 10,000 9,000 7,000
CALIF : 4,919,000 4,640,000 5,000,000
GA 4/3 2,500 2,700 2,900
MICH : 60,000 49,000 50,000
Mo af: 3,600 3,100 1,100
NY : 191,000 198,000 145,000
Nc Shs 3,000 5,900 3,200
OHIO 4/: 11,000 11,200 8,000
PA : 62,500 60,000 55,000
sc 4/: 1,500 2,500 1,200
WASH 3 227,000 168,500 119,000
us : 5,505,700 5,165,900 5,410,400

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(TONS): US 1983-145,500; 1984-24,100.
2/ DRIED BAS!S:1 TON OF RAISINS 1S EQUIVALENT TO 4.48
TONS FRESH GRAPES FOR 1983 AND 4.15 TONS FOR 1984.
3/ FRESH EQUIVALENT OF DRIED AND NOT DRIED.
4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PRUNES AND PLUMS

Vv INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(TONS): OREG 1983-2,000; 1984-500.

FILBERTS

PRODUCTION

WASH
us

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-22 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX

PAGE

APPLES ..ceccccccceccsceccceceeeee ee ccccvvcccccee ee cecvcccceeeces oe
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE .
CITRUS FRUITS......
CORN FOR GRAIN

+
RIN

BIOS RODVGONCOWNAWWABWNEAIUGNWNEEDAOHO

FLAXSEED .
GRAPES ...
HAY, ALL .ccccccecceeceeccceesees
HAY, ALFALFA & ALFALFA MIXTURES .
HAY, OTHER .ecccceecceescceeeeees
HOPS .....0.
INDEX NUMBERS .
PAPAYAS ....cceeccceeceeeccees seeee
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION ...
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAPS ..
PEANUTS FOR NUTS ...cccessccceceseceee
PECANS ... .

POTATOES .
PRUNES AND .
RELIABILITY STATEME
RICE ...cccceecceaee
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN .
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS
SUGARBEETS .....eeeeecceees
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED
SUNFLOWER ...eseeeee
SWEETPOTATOES ...
TOBACCO BY STATES .
US SUMMARY .....
WHEAT, ALL ......
WHEAT, BY CLASSES .
WHEAT, DURUM ......
WHEAT, SPRING .....

1114 v '
VM VMoIsHaNA

Cr eaer
Rena

+

PRP PP rPrErrr rrr rrr rgErEerrrrErrrrrrrr
1
aiLik

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


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SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: Production is forecast at a record high 1.13 billion

bushels (28.6 million metric tons), up 30 percent from
last year. Area for grain harvest is estimated at 16.2 million acres (6.55
million hectares), up 5 percent from 1984 but unchanged from the September 1
estimate.

The record high yield, forecast at 69.6 bushels per acre, is down 0.8 of a
bushel from the September 1 forecast but is 13.2 bushels above last year's
yield and 5.6 bushels above the previous record high yield set in 1981. An
early frost occurring in late September in several of the major sorghum grain
producing States in the central Plains has reduced crop prospects in these
affected areas. Yield prospects were lowered in South Dakota, Colorado,
Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas.

ALL WHEAT: Total 1985 production is forecast at 2.42 billion bushels (65.8

million metric tons), 7 percent tess than 1984, Harvested area
totals 64.6 million acres (26.1 million hectares), off 3 percent. Yields
average 37.4 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from last year.

DURUM WHEAT: The finial production forecast is placed at 106 million bushels

(2.87 million metric tons), 2 percent more than 1984 and 6 per-
cent above the September 1 forecast. Higher yields in North Dakota and
Minnesota have pushed the U.S. average yield to a near-record 34.8 bushels per
acre, 2.7 bushels above last year, 1.8 bushels more than September 1, and
second only to the record high average of 34.9 bushels per acre set in 1982.
Harvested area, unchanged from previous forecasts at 3.03 million acres (1.23
million hectares), is down 6 percent from 1984. About 86 percent of the durum
acreage was harvested as of October 1.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production is forecast at 474 million bushels (12.9 mil-

lion metric tons), up 10 percent from a year ago. Area
for grain is placed at 13.4 million acres (5.44 million hectares), 10 percent
above 1984. Yields are expected to average 35.3 bushels per acre, 0.1 of a
bushel less than the record high set last year. Growers in both Minnesota and
North Dakota are realizing record high yields. About 5 percent of the acreage
remained to be harvested as of October 1.

RICE: Production for 1985 is forecast at 132 million hundredweight (5.98
million metric tons), up 5 percent from September 1 but down 4 percent

from last year. The 13 percent drop in harvested acreage from 1984 was only
partially offset by higher yields from new varieties planted this year. The
1985 crop is 32 percent above the PIK program-crop of 1983. The average yield
is estimated at a record high 5426 pounds per acre, up 278 pounds from
September 7 and 500 pounds above last year. Mississippi and Arkansas showed
an increase in yield from the September 1 forecast of 600 and 540 pounds,
respectively. Arkansas also showed a 2 percent drop in harvested acreage to
1.03 million acres.

Crop development as of October 1 continued ahead of last year. The
Arkansas crop was well ahead of normal with 63 percent harvested compared with
43 percent in 1984 and the average of 50 percent. In California, harvest at
20 percent lagged behind 1984's 35 percent but remained 2 percentage points
ahead of the five-year average. The Louisiana harvest as of October 1 was 89
percent complete, 2 percentage points behind last year and the average.
Mississippi harvest was 92 percent complete, well ahead of last year's 57
Percent and the average of 55 percent. In Texas, 6 percent of the crop
remains unharvested, lagging behind last year and the average of 100 percent
complete.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED 1/

1,000 ACRES

CORN : 80,434 83,217 71,816 74,756
SORGHUM 2 17,249 17,865 15,348 16,181
ALL WHEAT : 79,213 75,765 66,928 64,588
DURUM : 3,277 3,132 3,219 3,032
OTHER SPRING : 12,517 14,538 12,196 13,438
RICE 2 2,804.0 2,470.0 2,782.0 2,430.0
SOYBEANS 2/ : 67,755 63,220 66,113 62,223
FLAXSEED 3 555 660 538 641
PEANUTS : 1,562.6 1,512.0 1,531.0 1,455.0
SUNFLOWER 2/ 3 3,754 3,025 3,692 2,945
ALL COTTON >: 17,145.4 10,739.1 10, 379.1 10, 338.7
UPLAND :  11,065.3 10,652.3 10,299.5 10,252.6
AMER-P IMA : 80.1 86.8 79.6 86.1
ALL HAY : 61,585 61,801
ALFALFA : 26,809 26,300
ALL OTHER : 34,776 35,501
ORY EDIBLE BEANS : 1,497.0 1,580.5 1,456.3 1,525.
SWEETPOTATOES 3 106.4 109.0 103.5 105.9
TOBACCO : 791.6 700.6
SUGARBEETS 3 1,121.5 1,116.8 1,096.3 1,100.9
SUGARCANE FOR 3
SUGAR AND SEED 3 747.3 757.9
HOPS : 30.8 28.1

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/1984 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY ~ AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

INDICATED
1985 1/

1,000 ACRES
OATS 2 12,364 13,140 8,123 8,750
BARLEY : 11,887 13,129 11,171 11,769
WINTER WHEAT : 63,419 58,095 51,513 48,118
RYE 2 2,977 2,558 981 677
POTATOES :
WINTER 2/ : 13.2 13.2 13.0 13.2
SPRING : 88.1 92.2 86.6 91.1
SUMMER : 111.5 116.2 107.2 113.0
FALL : 1,124.1 1,181.3 1,094.2 1,159.7
TOTAL 2/ > 1,336.9 1,402.9 1,301.0 1,377.0

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1985 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL HAY.

1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 © TONS

ALA ‘ 680 700 2.00 2.20 1,040 1,360
ARIZ 175 177 6.74 7.00 1,157 1,180
ARK 900 935 1.73 2.03 1,411 1,559
CALIF 1,530 1,570 5.13 5.02 7,352 7,854
COLO 1,430 1,420 2.32 2.38 3,357 3,311
CONN 1/ 88 2.33 2.33 196 212
DEL V/ 20 2.67 2.65 50 56
FLA 1/ 240 2.90 2.60 689 696
GA 520 2.40 2.50 1,000 1,320
IDAHO 1,390 3.39 3.23 4,914 4,743
TLL 1,200 3.18 3.39 2,749 3,880
IND 815 2.88 3.15 1,891 2,344
1OWA 2,050 3.65 3.46 5,905 7,850
KANS 2,840 2.32 2.87 4,920 6,120
KY 1,850 1.99 2.13 2,620 3,346
LA 320 2.40 2.31 763 816
MAINE 1/ 207 1.86 1.86 425 410
MD 215 2.76 2.66 566 634
MASS 1/ 124 2.38 2.40 313 300
MICH z 1,750 3.02 3.18 4,470 5,285
MINN : 2,700 3.01 2.97 8,316 8,440
MISS : 700 1.90 1,292
MO : 3,450 1.84 6,338
MONT : 2,000 1.72 3,780
NEBR : 3,450 2.04 7,535
NEV : 520 2.56 1,346
NH 1/ Hy 89 2.28 201
NJ Vv t 118 2.64 B17
N MEX z 350 4.25 1,488
NY 3 2,260 2,280 2.37 5,366
NC 3 410 400 1.79 733
N DAK ' z 2,900 2,950 1.54 4,468
OHIO : 1,350 1,470 2.81 3,795
OKLA : 1,940 2,100 1.83

OREG 3 1,105 1,060 2.82

PA + 1,980 1,990 2.57

RI WV 3 10 10 2.30

sc 2 230 210 2.30

S DAK t 4,310 3,950 1.88

TENN 3 1,500 1,620 1.79

TEX : 3,040 3,600 1.78

UTAH 2 610 605 3.54

VT / + 440 430 2.13

VA : 1,058 1,058 1.72

WASH t 800 860 3.65

WoVA : 630 610 1.79

WIS : 3,700 3,630 3.45

WYO 2 1,210 1,160 1.81

us : 61,585 61,801 2.45 151,220

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY

ARIZ : 150 155 7.20 7.40 1,059 1,080 1,147
ARK / 35 35 2.50 2.70 132 88 95
CALIF ! : 1,020 1,030 6.50 6.40 6,080 6,630 6,592
coto ! : 770 820 3.10 3.10 2,232 2,387 2,542
CONN 1/ 23 24 2.70 2.65 58 62 64
DEL t/t 7 7 3.70 3.70 24 26 26
IDAHO z 1,050 1,070 3.75 3.60 4,017 3,938 3,852
TLL : 800 840 3.80 3.90 1,950 3,040 3,276
IND : 420 435 3.70 3.90 1,131 1,554 1,697
|OWA : 1,650 1,550 4.00 3.80 4,805 6,600 5,890
KANS : 960 1,060 3.40 4.00 2,790 3,264 4,240
KY : 230 250 3.20 3.60 540 736 900
LA Vos: 12 15 2.40 2.40 28 29 36
MAINE 1/ 27 27 2.60 2.60 70 70 70
MD 41/ 80 70 3.70 3.60 251 296 252
MASS 1/) : 30 33 2.80 2.80 87 84 92
MICH : 1,400 1,400 3.300 3..50 3,960 4,620 4,900
MINN Hy 1,900 1,800 3.40 3.30 6,270 6,460 5,940
Mo t 450 450 9 2.75 2.90 1,152 1,238 1,305
MONT t 1,150 950 2.10 1.80 2,691 2,415 1,710
NEBR : 1,600 1,450 3.20 3.30 5,115 5,120 4,785
nev | : 235 240 4.00 3.90 897 940 936
NH d/o 19 20 2.80 2.90 57 53 58
Nu oo: 45 43 3.70 3.60 162 167 155
N MEX : 260 260 5.10 5.40 1,275 1,326 1,404
NY : 940 900 2.90 2.70 2,604 2,726 2,430
NC tf 3 40 45 2.60 2.50 66 104 115
N DAK : 1,550 1,550 1.75 1.20 2,790 2,713 1,860
OHIO : 600 650 3.70 4.15 1,564 2,220 2,698
OKLA : 340 400 3.40 3.80 1,156 1,156 1,520
OREG : 445 450 4.10 3.95 1,848 1,825 1,778
PA : 840 840 = =—3..20 3.20 2,380 2,688 2,688
Rio i/o: 3 3 2.70 2.70 9 8 8
S$ _DAK : 2,480 2,250 2.30 1.60 5,382 5,704 3,600
TENN 1/ 150 120, 3.00 3.00 350 450 360
TEX : 190 170 4.50 4.70 816 855 799
UTAH : 470 470 4.00 3.90 1,775 1,880 1,833
VT Vo: 115 120 2.50 2.40 263 288 288
VA Woo 88 88 3.00 2.70 216 264 | 238
WASH : 475 500 4.30 4.10 1,760 2,043 2,050
WYA 1/3 100 110 2.80 2.90 270 280 319
Wis 3 3,150 3,100 3.60 3.30 10,880 11,340 10,230
WYO : 510 500 2.45 2.25 1,250 1,250 1,125
us : 26,809 26,300 3.36 3.27 82,212 90,017 85,901

1/7 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield
surveys taken about October 1. The yield surveys include mailed reports from
farmers for all crops and actual field observations and measurements for corn,
soybeans, cotton, wheat, and some fruit and nut crops. Farmers provided
appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops on
their farms and for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small
plot observations, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These
surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common
to all surveys. More importantly, the production forecasts are subject to
change due to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured
currently but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report, the "Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by expressing
the deviations between the October 1 production forecasts and the final
estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1965-84 20-year perfod; the square root of this
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current
forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for
grain production forecast is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out
of 3 that the current production forecast of 8,603 million bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately
327 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence Ttevel

that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approximately 568 million
bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 224 million bushels, ranging
from 37 million to 538 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has heen below
the final estimate 8 times and above 2 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimates is about equally distributed.

RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

10- YEAR RECORD OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST

AND FINAL ESTIMATE
CROP AND
UNIT

FEED GRAINS 1/ MT
CORN FOR GRAIN BU
SORGHUM FOR
GRAIN BU
ALL WHEAT BU
DURUM BU
OTHER SPRING BU
RICE CWT:
SOYBEANS FOR
BEANS BU :
COTTON BALE 2/
va CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


TANGERINES: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 3.40 million boxes (126

thousand metric tons), 1 percent less than last season and 32
percent below the 1983-84 utilized production. The Florida forecast, at 1.10
million boxes, is for that portion of the crop expected to reach a size of 210
fruit per 4/5 bushel carton by December 1! for the variety Dancy, and by
November 1 for Robinson. (An estimate of utilized crop will be shown in the
February Crop Production report). The Dancy tangerine forecast at 700
thousand boxes is up 8 percent from last season while the forecast for
Robinson tangerines is 400 thousand boxes, the same as 1984-85 production.
The California tangerine forecast, at 1.70 million boxes, is up 1 percent from
last season but 8 percent below 1983-84. The Arizona tangerine crop is
forecast at 600 thousand boxes, 14 percent from 1984-85 and 48 percent below
983-84.

TEMPLES: Florida's temple forecast is 3.50 million boxes (143 thousand metric

tons), up 8 percent from last season and 21 percent more than
1983-84.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Most of Florida's citrus groves received more than normal

rainfall during September. The third week of September, rain-
fa)] in the citrus belt ranged from 4 to 8 inches. Some flatwoods groves on
the lower west coast reported water standing, with no place to drain, for
several days. The hot temperatures and abundant moisture provided excellent
growing conditions with trees of a11 ages showing much new foliage. Red and
white grapefruit were picked the first week of September and shipped the
next. By the middle of September, Navel oranges and K-early citrus fruit had
also been picked. -Harvest of these four types of fruit increased to the end
of the month. Most caretakers were busy during this month controlling cover
crops and moving excessive moisture. Spot spraying and fertilizations
occurred in all areas.

TEXAS CITRUS: The Texas citrus industry is rebounding from the December 1983

freeze with gad quality fruit available this season. The quan-
tity of fruit available will be significally lower than pre-freeze supplies.
Rainfall in late September helped fruit sizing as well as tree condition.
Irrigation needs were reduced during late September. Birds have caused some
damage to fruit. Most groves have had only light disease problems.
Temperatures were cooling off somewhat by late September, helping fruit
development. Harvest is expected to begin by the first of November with some
early supplies possible by late October.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SEPTEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

Three tropical systems invaded the Nation during the month. Early in the
month Tropical Storm Elena spread heavy rain over the northeastern gulf
coast and through the Mississippi Delta. In the last week of the month
tropical Storm Henri and then Hurricane Gloria moved up the east coast and
into New England. Henri spread showers from North Carolina to New England,
and hard on its heels, Gloria moved over the outer banks of North Carolina and
stayed just off the east coast, lashing the coastline with hurricane winds and
dumping torrential rain inland. The hurricane followed Henri into New
England. In spite of the heavy rain along the coast, the Piedmont from
Georgia to Pennsylvania remained dry. The dryness extended through the
eastern Corn Belt. Rain continued to fall in the previously dry Montana
area. Very light showers fell early in the month in the valleys of California
where raisins were spread to dry, but most of the drying period remained
dry. The first snow of the season fell in western Montana and in the upper
Mississippi Valley. Much cooler than normal temperatures covered most of the
West, and only the Northeast was slightly warmer than normal. (Prepared by
NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility.)

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

Winter wheat seeding advanced to 40 percent completion, virtually, the same
as last year but 5 points below the average, by September 29th. As ‘the month
drew to a close, seeding was behind normal in 12 of the 18 major producing
States. Only Idaho and Washington were ahead of the normal seeding pace.
Moisture promoted emergence and growth across the central and northern Plains
but, delayed planting. Dryness hampered seeding in Texas and the Southeastern

ates.

Nebraska's wheat was 75 percent seeded compared with 90 percent last year
and average. Forty-five percent of the acreage planted was emerging, 15
points below the average. Moisture at month's end was ideal for germination
and growth.

Oklahoma's wheat was mostly good with 35 percent of the acreage seeded.
Seeding equaled the average and was 15 points above 1984.

In Kansas, winter wheat was 40 percent seeded as the month ended. Seeding
was 5 points ahead of 1984 but 10 points below the average. Snow and rain
slowed planting but provided ample moisture for germination and growth. Very
little damage resulted from the snow and cold temperatures the last week of
September.

SEPTEMBER ROW CROP DEVELOPMENT

Below-normal temperatures during September slowed crop development and
maturity across most of the Nation. Early in the month excessive heat and the
lack. of moisture stressed crops in some Southeastern States and dry areas of
the Great Plains. The last week of September, snow and freezing temperatures
over the central and northern Great Plains virtually ended the growing
season. Damage was limited to mostly late planted crops in North Dakota,
Nebraska and Kansas.

Corn was 83 percent mature by September 29th, compared with 82 percent
normally. Corn maturity was 21 and 24 points behind normal in Wisconsin and
South Dakota, respectively. Harvest was 12 percent finished in the 17 major
producing States, equaling last year but 3 points below average. Harvest
ranged from 1 percent complete in both Minnesota and South Dakota to 90
percent complete in Georgia. Harvest was behind normal in 9 of the 17 major
producing States. .

Soybean acreage dropping leaves totaled 62 percent, 3 points below the
average at month's end. Harvest was 7 percent complete, compared with 117
percent in 1984 and the 12 percent average. In the 19 major producing States,
leaf dropping was ahead of normal in 5 States and harvest exceeded the normal
pace in 3 States. Harvest had not started in South Carolina and Tennessee and
was just beginning in Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1975-85 (1977=100)

PRODUCTION

YEAR : :
FEED : FOOD : SUGAR : COTTON : TOBACCO :OIL CROPS
GRAINS : GRAINS : CROPS :
1975 3 91 100 108 114 58 114 86
1976 3 96 94 107 112 74 112 74
1977 3 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1978 : 108 106 93 101 76 106 105
1979 : 116 108 108 94 102 80 129
1980 : 97 98 121 97 79 93 99
1981 : 121 106 144 107 109 108 114
1982 : 124 110 140 96 85 104 124
1983 : 67 101 V7 96 54 74 89
1984 : 115 107 129 95 90 90 106
1985 : 130 107 120 98 95 80 118

V/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE
GROUPS OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with
related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Crop Reporting Board which consists of commodity
statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:
Raymond R. Hancock, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

APPROVE D: Rich D. Allen, John D. Witzig,
Richard P. Small, Robert L. Addison,
dames E. Brewster, Arvin R. Budge,
Harry J. DeLong, David M. Dillard,

74 William N. Dowdy, S. Radley Edwards,

Meet x2 Tt Ronald S. Fecso, Barry L. Ford,

OM tem Craig M. Hayes, Clifton D. James,
Doyle C. Johnson, Stephen A. Kellogg,
David D. Kleweno, Jerry M. Midden,
Gary A. Nelson, Lawrence H. Pope,
Darwin E. Ransom, Robin 0. Roark,

Richard L. Schuchardt, Vaughn L. Siegenthaler.

ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

Crop Reporting Board reports may be obtained electronically through the
USDA Electronic Dissemination of Information system (EDI). For assistance
concerning this Service contact:

Martin Marietta Data Systems
Government Sales Department

6303 Ivy Lane
Greenbelt, Maryland 20770

Telephone: (301) 982-6500

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Production from the Florida crop is expected to reach a record high. The
crop is in good to very good condition and has received plentiful rain.
Cutting for seed increased during Steptember. Harvest for sugar is expected
to start by mid-October and be in full swing by early November.

In Hawaii, the crop was favored with high humidity, increased rain and high
temperatures. The Ka'u district on Hawaii Istand is the only cane growing area
with a drought-like situation. The lace bug situation on Maui remains stable.

In Louisiana, September weather was very favorable for sugarcane growth.
The crop is now in fair to good condition.

Growing conditions in Texas were good. Harvest is expected to begin on
schedule in mid-October.

HOPS: Production is estimated at 49.6 million pounds (22.5 thousand metric
tons), down 3 percent from September 1 and 12 percent from 1984.

In Idaho and Oregon, yields were below the September 1 forecast. The
estimated U.S. average yield per acre is 1764 pounds and compares with 1824
pounds in 1984. The 28.1 thousand acres (11.4 thousand hectares) for harvest
is 1 percent below September 1 and 9 percent below 1984. Harvest was complete
by October 1. About 200 acres of hops in Washington will not be harvested.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: The pasture and range feed condition on
October 1 for the 48 contiguous States was

76 percent, 10 points above October 1 last year and 2 points above the 1974-83
average for the date. Conditions improved during September in 23 States, were
unchanged in 2 States, and declined in 23 States. During September pasture
and range conditions improved throughout most of the western half of the
Nation and declined in the eastern half. Conditions remained at severe to
extreme drought in eastern Montana, Wyoming, the western Dakotas, and the
Nebraska panhandte in spite of the general improvement in western pastures and
ranges. Only two western States, Nevada and Arizona reported lower condition
than on September 1. In the eastern half of the Nation, a pocket of severe
drought developed in Ohio and West Virginia in the Ohio River Valley. Pasture
condition declined 19 and 24 points, respectively, in Ohio and West Virginia.
Along the Atlantic Coast States, condition deterigrated 13 to 18 points from
Georgia to Maryland. Tank water supplies were short due to a lack of run off
in New Mexico; rainfall improved supplies in Texas.

APPLES: The final forecast of the 1985 U.S. apple crop places production at

8.11 billion pounds (3.68 million metric tons), up 1 percent from the
August 1 forecast of 8.07 biltion pounds (3.66 millton metric tons), but 2
percent less than last year's production.

Eastern States expect 3.06 billion pounds, up _1 percent from August 1 but
6 percent below a year ago. Hurricane Gloria caused major losses in
Connecticut, Massachusetts, and southern Maine. Electrical outages compounded
the problem, as cooling facilities were without power for 1 to 3 days.
Salvage operations are in progress with growers trying to get as much of the
downed fruit to the processors as possible. In Pennsylvania, the crop is
sizing and coloring nicely considering the dry September. The hot, dry
weather reduced size in the Virginia crop. Picking was about 30 percent
complete by October 1 and quality is good. Harvest is in full swing in New
York. Hurricane Gloria damaged the Hudson Valley crop which had already
suffered frost and hail damage. The western part of the State was not damaged
by the hurricane. Apple harvest was about 70 percent complete by the first of
October in North Carolina.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at 2.11 billion bushels (57.4 million metric

tons), up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast and 13 percent
more than last year. Yield is forecast at a record high 33.9 bushels per
acre, up 0.7 of a bushel from September 1, and 5.8 bushels more than 1984
The previous record yield was 32.1 bushels per acre set in 1979.

Soybean growing conditions were generally good through most of September.
At the end of the month cold, winter weather hit the western soybean producing
States reducing yields. Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Arkansas all fell 1
bushel from the September 1 forecast yield. This was more than offset by the
increased yields in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. Illinois increased
4 bushels, Indiana 2 bushels, and Missouri and Ohio 1 bushel from September
1. Yields prospects also increased in the southern coastal States from Texas
to Alabama. Yield reductions were recorded in North Carolina and South
Carolina due to dry conditions early in the month.

As of October 1, soybean harvest was 7 percent complete compared with 11
percent for last year and the average of 12 percent. Harvest is behind normal
in 12 of the 19 States reporting harvest progress. South Dakota, Iowa and
Nebraska were 16, 15 and 14 percentage points behind their average harvest
Progress, respectively.

SOYBEANS REVISIONS - 1984 CROP: The 1984 revised soybean production is

estimated at 1.86 billion bushels (50.6
million metric tons), virtually unchanged from the previous estimate. Some
adjustments were made in State yields and acreage but these changes offset
each other at the national level. The revision is based on end of marketing
year stock estimates, USDA administrative data, and annual crushings, export
data, and additional survey data in some States.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

1971985
BILLION BUSES
a8

2s

ae

uk

ast

ns ” n n = a e e 4 oe

*OCTOBER FORECAST

FLAXSEED: Production for 1985 is forecast at 8.51 million bushels (216

thousand metric tons), unchanged from September 1, up 21 percent
from 1984 and 23 percent from 1983. Yield per acre is forecast at 13.3
bushels, unchanged from the September 1 forecast and 0.2 of a bushel higher
than 1984,

As of September 30, harvest was 81 percent complete in South Dakota, 47
percent in North Dakota, and 37 percent complete in Minnesota. Yields were
unchanged from 1984 in Minnesota, up 0.5 of a bushel in North Dakota and down
0.5 of a bushel in South Dakota. Rain has hampered harvest in North Dakota
and South Dakota.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



SUNFLOWER

AREA HARVESTED YIELD : PRODUCTION
STATE «—-—_— geneween wenn nnn nn nn nn enn nn nnn nn enn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn n=

1984 1/

1,000 ACRES 1,000 POUNDS
OIL
MINN : 238 201 1,250 253,000 297,500
N DAK 3 2,600 1,850 970 2,288,000 2,522,000
S DAK : 585 534 1,080 449,450 631,800
TEX : 37 110 1,300 37,400 48,100
us : 3,460 2,705 1,011 3,027,850 3,499,400
NON-OIL
MINN 2 13 23 1,200 11,250 15,600
N DAK : 217 215 1,050 158,400 227,850
S DAK : 2 2 840 1,000 1,680
TEX :
us : 232 240 1,057 170,650 245,130
ALL
MINN : 251 234 1,247 1,350 264,250 313,100 315,900
N DAK : 2,817 2,065 976 1,100 2,446,400 2,749,850 2,271,500
S DAK : 587 536 1,079 1,180 450,450 633,480 632,480
TEX : 37 110 1,300 1,300 37,400 48,100 143,000
us + 3,692 2,945 1,004 1,142 3,198,500 3,744,530 3,362,880
1/ REVISED.

1,000 BUSHELS

1,000 ACRES

45 56 14.5 1 938 653 812
390 490 12.5 1 4,600 4,875 6,370
103 95 14.5 1 1,365 1,494 1,330

13.1 1

AREA HARVESTED YIELD : PRODUCTION 1/
STATE warner nee e een e nner ene nnn nn nnn nn enone nnn nn nnn nne ela atatatata cee
: IND: IND
1984 : 1985 : 1985
POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

ALA 2,960 3,050 454,500 648,550 622,200
FLA : 3,200 3,000 166,800 246,400 222,000
GA : 3,375 3,300 1,567,980 2,160,000 1,963,500
N MEX 2/° : 2,220 2,300 25,630 32,190 29,900
Nc t 2,900 °2,950 318,255 449,500 457,250
OKLA : 91.0 86.0 2,077 2,300 176,540 189,000 197,800
sc : 2,700 2,800 25,000 39,150 33,600
TEX : 1,665 2,000 362,275 371,295 440,000
VA : 2,780 2,900 198,550 269,660 278,400
us : 2,878 2,917 3,295,530 4,405,745 4,244,650

1/ ESTIMATES COMPRISED OF QUOTA AND NON-QUOTA PEANUTS.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL OTHER HAY

1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
ALA 2 680 700 2.00 2.20 1,040 1,360 1,540
ARIZ 1/ 3 25 22 4.00 4.20 98 100 92
ARK : 865 900 1.70 2.00 1,279 1,471 1,800
CALIF z 510 540 2.40 2.40 1,272 1,224 1,296
COLO 3 660 600 1.40 1.40 1,125 924 840
CONN 1t/ 3 68 64 2.20 2.20 138 150 141
DEL 1/ 3 14 13 2.15 2.10 26 30 27
FLA / 3 240 240 2.90 2.60 689 696 624
GA 2 550 520 2.40 2.50 1,000 1,320 1,300
1DAHO : 350 320 2.30 2.00 897 805 640
ILL t 420 360 2.00 2.20 799 840 792
IND : 395 380 2.00 2.30 760 790 B74
IOWA t 500 500 2.50 2.40 1,100 1,250 1,200
KANS 3 1,680 1,780 1.70 2.20 2,130 2,856 3,916
KY 3 1,450 1,600 1.80 1.90 2,080 2,610 _ 3,040
LA t 328 305 2.40 2.30 735 787 702
MAINE 1/ 3 194 180 1.75 1.75 355 340 315
MD 150 145 2.25 2.20 315 338 319
MASS 1/ 96 91 2.25 2.25 226 216 205
MICH 350 350 1.90 1.90 510 665 665
MINN 900 900 2.20 2.30 2,046 1,980 2,070
MISS 680 700 1.90 2.60 1,350 1,292 1,820
MO 3 3,000 3,000 1.70 1.75 4,288 5,100 . 54250
MONT 1,050 1,050 1.30 1.00 1,350 1,365 1,050
NEBR 2,100 2,000 1.15 1.15 2,520 2,415 2,300
NEV 290 280 1.40 1.30 405 406 364
NH V/ 69 69 2.15 2.15 144 148 148
NJ 1/ 75 75 2.00 2.00 133 150 150
N MEX 1/ 90 90 1.80 1.90 126 162 171
NY 1,320 1,380 2.00 1.90 2,680 2,640 2,622
NC 370 355 1.70 1.60 504 629 568
N DAK 1,350 1,400 1.30 1.10 1,688 1,755 1,540
OHIO 750 820 2.10 2.40 1,680 1,575 1,968
OKLA 1,600 1,700 1.50 1.80 2,560 2,400 3,060
OREG 660 610 1.95 1,80 1,273 1,287 1,098
PA 1,140 1,150 2.10 2.10 2,240 2,394 2,415
Rt v/ 7 7 2.20 2.10 16 15 15
sc 230 210 2.30 2.20 387 529 462
S_DAK 1,830 1,700 1.30 1.10 2,210 2,379 1,870
TENN 1,350 1,500 1.65 1.90 1,694 2,228 2,850
TEX 2,850 3,430 1.60 2.10 6,670 4,560 7,203
UTAH 1/ 140 135 2.00 2.00 280 280 270
VT V/ 325 310 2.00 1.95 663 650 605
VA 970 970 1.60 1.50 1,330 1,552 1,455
WASH 325 360 2.70 2.10 875 878 756
WoYA 530 500 1.60 1.80 594 848 900
ws 550 530 2.60 2.30 1,320 1,430 1,219
Wyo 700 660 1.35 1.20 952 945 792
us 34,776 35,501 1. 275 1.84 58,552 60,764 65,319

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1985 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA