Cr Pr 2-2 (1-05)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released January 12, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down 3 Percent

The U.S. all orange January forecast for the 2004-05 season is 9.65 million tons, down 3 percent from the

previous forecast and 25 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at

162 million boxes (7.29 million tons), is down 4 percent from the December forecast and 33 percent below

the 2003-04 season. The production of early and midseason varieties is reduced 2 million boxes, to

84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons), 2 percent less than the December forecast. The fruit drop rate at

18 percent is the second highest since 1960 with average fruit size the smallest since the 2000-01 season. 

Florida’s early-mids harvest started late because of the smaller crop and lagging maturity level. 

Approximately 60 percent of the crop remains to be harvested. The Valencia forecast is decreased 4 million

boxes to 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), down 5 percent from the previous forecast. Florida’s

Valencia average drop rate is projected to reach 20 percent and average fruit size continues to be one of the

smallest in the last 20 years.

The all orange forecast for California, at 60.5 million boxes (2.27 million tons), is 2 percent less than the

October forecast but 16 percent higher than last season's final utilization. The Navel orange forecast is down

2 million boxes from October at 44.0 million boxes (1.65 million tons) but 16 percent above last season. 

California’s Navel orange fruit size is large with some fruit quality problems such as puff observed. The

Navels fruit quality problems combined with a higher fruit drop rate caused by cold temperatures have

resulted in reduced harvested volumes. California's Valencia orange forecast is increased 500 thousand boxes

to 16.5 million boxes (619,000 tons), up 3 percent from the October forecast and 18 percent higher than last

season's final estimate. Overall quality for California’s Valencia oranges is good and fruit size is larger than

last year. The all orange forecast for Texas, at 1.75 million boxes (75,000 tons), is 8 percent less than the

October 1 forecast but 6 percent above the 2003-04 season. The early-midseason orange forecast is reduced

150,000 boxes to 1.50 million boxes (64,000 tons). The Valencia orange forecast, at 250,000 boxes, remains

unchanged from the October 1 forecast but 9 percent higher than the previous season. Crop condition was

reported as good. Arizona's all orange forecast is decreased 10,000 boxes to 430,000 boxes (16,000 tons).

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season is forecast at 1.56 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month's projection. This is also the same as last season's

final estimate of 1.56 gallons per box as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The earlymidseason portion is projected to yield 1.50 gallons, up from 1.45 gallons for the 2003-04 crop. Valencia's

are projected to yield 1.63 gallons compared to 1.69 gallons for last season. All projections of yield assume

that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on January 12, 2005.

Secretary of

Agriculture

Ann M. Veneman

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Grains & Hay

Hay Stocks ........................................................................ 6

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas ........................................................................... 4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit ......................................................................... 5

Lemons ........................................................................... 5

Oranges ........................................................................... 5

Tangelos .......................................................................... 5

Tangerines ......................................................................... 5

Temples ........................................................................... 5

Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops

Potatoes ........................................................................... 4

Crop Comments ...................................................................... 14

Crop Summary ........................................................................ 7

Information Contacts .................................................................. 19

Reliability of Production Data in this Report .............................................. 18

Weather Maps ....................................................................... 13

Weather Summary .................................................................... 14
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 4 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2003-2005

Seasonal

Group

and

State

Area

Yield Production

Planted Harvested

2004 2005 2004 2005 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring 1

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

13.0

5.7

18.7

6.2

17.5

24.8

18.2

6.6

17.0

11.0

76.5

14.0

6.0

20.0

13.0

5.5

18.5

6.2

17.5

24.5

18.0

6.5

13.5

10.5

72.2

14.0

5.8

19.8

250

285

260

285

475

313

320

295

200

210

314

225

260

235

2,635

1,392

4,027

2,090

8,360

8,008

5,684

2,324

2,975

3,000

24,433

3,250

1,568

4,818

1,767

8,313

7,678

5,760

1,918

2,700

2,205

22,663

3,150

1,508

4,658

 1 2004 revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2003 2004

2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Nov

Dec

2,210

2,210

2,100

2,230

1,580

1,350

1,365

1,395

3,105

3,115

2,665

3,050

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted January 1, 2005 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 4

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 5

 CA 5

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

200

42,000

112,000

1,350

155,550

270

20,000

91,000

220

111,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,800

5,500

8,730

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

300

38,000

126,000

1,420

165,720

170

14,000

116,000

230

130,400

470

52,000

242,000

1,650

296,120

1,400

15,900

25,000

140

5,400

40,900

5,700

52,140

690

2,700

6,500

9,890

3,000

18,000

21,000

1,000

240

44,000

84,000

1,500

129,740

190

16,500

78,000

250

94,940

430

60,500

162,000

1,750

224,680

700

3,000

10,000

180

5,300

13,000

6,200

24,680

450

2,900

4,500

7,850

2,400

19,500

21,900

1,100

8

1,575

5,040

57

6,680

10

751

4,095

9

4,865

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

957

4

187

1,646

226

2,063

16

105

261

382

114

912

1,026

105

12

1,426

5,670

60

7,168

6

526

5,220

10

5,762

18

1,952

10,890

70

12,930

63

675

1,063

5

181

1,738

228

2,152

25

101

309

435

114

684

798

45

9

1,650

3,780

64

5,503

7

619

3,510

11

4,147

16

2,269

7,290

75

9,650

32

128

425

6

178

553

248

985

17

109

214

340

91

741

832

50

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Includes seedy. 5 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 6 NASS, USDA

Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,

December 1 and May 1, 2002-2004

State

Dec 1 May 1

2002 2003 1 2004 2003 2004 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

1,750

203

2,755

1,840

1,548

73

9

475

1,295

2,824

1,370

1,037

3,900

4,800

3,975

662

161

274

77

2,024

4,183

1,631

6,897

4,086

3,278

882

55

61

550

2,169

934

4,300

1,666

5,357

2,550

2,138

10

413

5,825

3,318

10,460

1,210

240

2,329

1,600

934

3,600

1,250

102,978

1,764

280

2,700

2,086

1,841

83

12

434

1,494

2,772

1,797

1,561

3,695

5,600

5,035

937

164

377

72

1,872

3,567

1,125

7,148

3,986

5,244

857

60

96

525

2,430

1,625

4,690

2,504

4,244

2,357

2,440

10

601

7,210

3,830

9,910

1,495

332

2,515

1,620

957

3,110

1,963

111,027

1,965

250

3,200

1,724

2,527

73

25

410

1,345

2,782

1,613

1,704

4,368

6,304

4,742

910

189

348

95

1,893

4,127

1,159

8,101

4,427

4,175

741

53

161

545

1,895

1,545

3,923

2,250

5,186

2,366

2,700

12

557

6,939

4,199

10,451

1,383

276

2,716

1,560

1,030

3,532

1,818

114,294

254

45

588

200

360

14

4

80

230

635

285

96

1,100

1,150

513

173

39

55

21

462

815

249

1,083

953

870

167

9

11

98

520

50

940

215

1,190

340

380

1

65

1,154

504

3,888

175

80

272

285

95

1,100

200

22,013

487

55

600

306

610

14

4

52

342

445

408

253

605

1,400

1,466

115

33

60

15

250

575

244

1,462

790

1,596

121

11

40

115

552

405

828

556

1,275

371

570

2

186

1,515

1,182

2,849

279

86

758

470

191

920

478

25,947

 1 Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

4,527.0

80,930.0

4,085.0

710.0

3,347.0

1,380.0

7,486.0

59,674.0

43,350.0

2,561.0

13,763.0

865.0

523.0

73.0

1,430.0

8.7

175.0

75,208.0

1,873.0

13,658.6

13,409.0

249.6

1,346.0

30.5

1,354.3

530.0

345.0

1,194.0

18.7

76.5

59.1

1,039.7

97.4

41,567.0

20.0

4,021.0

73,632.0

6,103.0

61,916.0

21,707.0

40,209.0

1,792.0

595.0

3,325.0

320.0

6,517.0

352.0

49,999.0

34,462.0

2,363.0

13,174.0

828.0

516.0

68.7

1,394.0

7.8

159.0

73,958.0

1,711.0

13,057.0

12,809.0

248.0

1,306.7

952.1

409.1

21.5

1,219.3

507.8

329.0

5.8

0.2

27.7

77.7

1,168.1

18.5

72.2

54.6

1,022.8

15.1

93.3

0.4

19.8

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 8 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

69.4

160.4

17.6

2.55

3.47

2.05

64.7

25.3

6,942

26.9

69.8

13.5

43.2

43.5

38.0

43.2

1,618

20.3

819

3,057

1,394

1,105

42.5

1,197

846

835

1,425

22.9

30.8

2,159

1,228

1,460

2,249

1,271

1,220

40,000

1,990

92

391

260

314

345

401

116

176

235

279,253

11,807,217

107,336

157,774

75,383

82,391

115,935

15,065

230,818

8,615

454,899

4,763

2,158,245

1,499,434

89,893

568,918

1,339,530

8,411.0

10,471

56,290

4,261,700

10,875

175,765

3,140,996

2,047,863

23,006.0

22,270.0

736.0

29,932

29,295

883,171

264

17,799

11,419

4,182

899

7,100

6,000

55,203.9

7,146

456,362

4,818

22,663

18,858

410,023

1,746

16,399

5,200

4,658

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 9 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2003 2004 2005

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA) 3

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

Ton

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,063

1,026

11,545

105

382

59

8,613.3

97.6

22,500.0

6,572.7

118.0

42,600.0

1,259.5

928.1

181.0

16.3

1,040,000

37.9

282,100

119,000

326.0

1,260

2,152

798

12,930

45

435

63

9,458.9

95.6

6,073.0

85.0

1,299.2

908.0

70.0

24.5

1,080,000

44.0

177,300

325.0

1,507

985

832

9,650

50

340

32

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3 September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released on January 25, 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2004 2005 2004 2005

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

1,832,030

32,751,560

1,653,160

287,330

1,354,500

558,470

3,029,510

24,149,470

17,543,310

1,036,410

5,569,750

350,060

211,650

29,540

578,710

3,520

70,820

30,435,930

757,980

5,527,500

5,426,490

101,010

544,710

12,340

548,070

214,490

139,620

483,200

7,570

30,960

23,920

420,760

39,420

16,821,750

8,090

1,627,260

29,798,130

2,469,820

25,056,790

8,784,610

16,272,180

725,200

240,790

1,345,590

129,500

2,637,360

142,450

20,234,100

13,946,430

956,280

5,331,390

335,080

208,820

27,800

564,140

3,160

64,350

29,930,060

692,420

5,284,040

5,183,670

100,360

528,810

385,310

165,540

8,700

493,440

205,500

133,140

2,350

60

11,230

31,440

472,720

7,490

29,220

22,100

413,920

6,110

37,760

150

8,010

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 11 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2004 2005 2004 2005

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.74

10.06

39.43

5.71

7.78

4.59

2.32

1.42

7.78

1.69

4.38

30.33

2.90

2.93

2.56

2.90

1.81

1.27

0.92

3.43

1.56

1.24

2.86

1.34

0.95

0.94

1.60

51.35

68.97

2.42

1.38

1.64

2.52

1.42

1.37

44.83

2.23

0.10

43.79

29.19

35.18

38.71

44.93

0.13

19.70

26.37

6,080,020

299,917,130

97,373,580

143,130,170

68,386,310

74,743,860

1,682,790

341,670

10,469,730

218,830

11,554,970

4,320,920

58,737,800

40,807,910

2,446,490

15,483,410

607,600

7,630,330

265,980

25,530

1,933,070

4,930

79,730

85,483,900

928,900

5,008,970

4,848,720

160,250

27,153,850

26,575,980

400,600

11,970

807,350

517,960

189,690

40,780

3,220

2,720

25,040

3,240

20,700,230

218,540

1,027,980

855,380

18,598,330

790

743,850

2,360

211,280

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 12 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2003 2004 2005

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA) 3

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

95,250

346,540

53,520

3,906,930

88,520

10,210

5,962,680

107,050

19,320

1,142,600

841,910

164,200

14,790

471,740

34,380

127,960

53,980

295,740

6,300

1,952,260

723,930

11,729,900

40,820

394,630

57,150

4,290,490

86,680

5,509,330

77,110

1,178,610

823,760

63,500

22,230

489,880

39,920

80,420

294,840

7,530

893,580

754,780

8,754,330

45,360

308,440

29,030

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3 September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts

2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released on January 25, 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 13 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 14 NASS, USDA

December Weather Summary

December featured some brief but historically snowy, cold weather across the South. Ironically, wet

snow—Deep South Texas’ first accumulation in more than a century—helped to insulate citrus, sugarcane,

and winter vegetables from a Christmas Day freeze. Meanwhile, warmer- and drier-than-normal weather

prevailed in most areas from the High Plains to the Mississippi River, providing generally favorable

conditions for overwintering grains. Somewhat wetter conditions were observed in the Great Lakes and

Northeastern States, although much of the rain and snow fell early in the month. Farther south, a major snow

and ice storm affected parts of the Ohio Valley and interior South on December 22-23. Toward the end of

December, stormy weather returned to California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, following nearly a

month-long respite. The Western precipitation caused local flooding and mudslides, but padded highelevation snow packs and further eased long-term drought. Farther north, however, snow packs remained

mostly below normal for this time of year across the northern Rockies and northern Intermountain West.

There were also some wild temperature swings in all parts of the United States. Although monthly

temperatures averaged as much as 8 degrees F above normal on the northern Plains, readings briefly dipped to

-20 degrees F or lower in some locations on December 23. Two days later, the high-pressure system

responsible for Montana’s cold snap reached the Deep South, where southern Texas noted a hard freeze

(temperatures of 28 degrees F or lower). However, cool conditions were most persistent in the Southeast,

where monthly temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F below normal. Nevertheless, Florida’s winter

agricultural areas avoided a significant freeze, although temperatures flirted with the freezing mark (32

degrees F) in the State’s northern citrus belt on December 15. Meanwhile, monthly temperatures were mostly

above normal in the West, despite cool spells in early December and again after mid-month. The Northwest

was especially warm, relative to normal.

December Crop Summary

Conditions were warm and mostly dry across the Great Plains and Corn Belt, encouraging final harvest of

summer crops in the northernmost parts of the regions, where cool summer weather had previously delayed

maturation and harvest. However, some scattered fields of corn and soybeans remained to be harvested. 

Snow accumulation was below normal across most northern areas, leaving winter wheat vulnerable to freeze

damage.

Below-normal temperatures prevailed in the Delta and Southeast, with moderate to heavy precipitation. On

Christmas morning, many areas along the western Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to the Rio Grande, were

blanketed with snow -- for the first time in over 100 years for some locations. However, most crops in the

area escaped serious damage, as temperatures fell below the critical 28 degrees Fahrenheit for only a few

hours. Temperatures remained above freezing in Florida’s citrus-producing area.

In the Ohio Valley and central Atlantic Coast States, temperatures averaged near normal for the month. Just

after midmonth, an arctic blast dropped temperatures in the area and brought up to 2 feet of snow to some

areas. However, warm weather after Christmas quickly melted accumulated snowfall. A few corn and

soybean fields remained unharvested.

Both temperatures and precipitation were below normal in the Rocky Mountains. Though heavy snow fell in

northern areas of the region toward month’s end, snow accumulation remained well below normal, leaving

winter wheat vulnerable to the cold.

Further west, above-normal temperatures prevailed along the Pacific Coast, encouraging winter wheat

emergence. Heavy precipitation in the area replenished soil moisture and improved crop condition. However,

snow accumulation was below average in most winter wheat-producing areas and was mostly insufficient to

protect the crop from extreme cold weather.

Winter Potatoes: Production for 2005 is forecast at 4.66 million cwt, down 3 percent from a year ago but

16 percent above 2003. Harvested acreage in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is

estimated at 19,800 acres, up 7 percent from 2004, while the average yield is forecast at 235 cwt per acre,

25 cwt below last year. Harvest is underway in California's Kern County and proceeding normally. There

have been no reports that the recent cold, wet weather has seriously affected the quality of the potatoes. In
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 15 NASS, USDA

Florida, mostly mild, dry fall weather provided good conditions for planting and crop development. Most

acreage escaped damage from the cold, wet weather in late December.

Spring Potatoes: Production for 2004 is revised to 22.7 million cwt, up 19 percent from the May forecast

but 7 percent below 2003. Harvested area totaled 72,200 acres, down 15 percent from a year ago. The

average yield of 314 cwt per acre increased 26 cwt from 2003 and is a record high, 14 cwt above the previous

record set in 1999.

Spring potato production in Texas decreased 26 percent from 2003 and 15 percent in Arizona. Production in

North Carolina is down 9 percent from the previous year and Florida’s crop is 4 percent below 2003. 

California’s crop decreased 1 percent from last year. Record high yields in California partially offset an

8 percent decrease in harvested acres.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.05 million pounds for December, 14 percent

higher than last month but 2 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,230 acres, 6 percent higher

than last month and up 1 percent from a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,395 acres, up 2 percent from last

month and 3 percent above December 2003. Weather conditions were variable during December with a mix

of showers and sunny periods. Soil moisture in non-irrigated orchards has been adequate.

Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 985,000 tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but

54 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast, at 13.0 million boxes

(553,000 tons), is unchanged from December but 68 percent below last season's final utilization. The white

grapefruit forecast is 3.00 million boxes (128,000 tons), unchanged from December but 81 percent below last

season. White grapefruit size and drop projections have not changed since November. The colored grapefruit

forecast, at 10.0 million boxes (425,000 tons), remains unchanged from December 1 but 60 percent below last

season's final utilization.

California's grapefruit production forecast is 5.30 million boxes (178,000 tons), 2 percent above the October

forecast but 2 percent below the 2003-04 season. Market conditions continue to be very strong as a result of

the extensive losses in Florida. Pummelos were harvested in the Central Valley and Rio Red variety in the

desert region. Quality is reported as fair to excellent. The forecast for Texas grapefruit is 6.20 million boxes

(248,000 tons), 5 percent above the previous forecast and 9 percent greater than last season. Harvest is

underway with favorable prices reported. Minimal damage resulted from the Christmas Eve snowstorm. 

Arizona's grapefruit forecast is 180,000 boxes (6,000 tons), 10 percent below the October 1 forecast but

29 percent above the 2003-04 season.

Lemons: The forecast for the 2004-05 U.S. lemon crop, at 832,000 tons, is unchanged from the October 1

forecast but up 4 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 19.5 million boxes

(741,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 8 percent above the 2003-04 season. Harvest is

active in all three growing districts but it has been disrupted by rain. A light crop was reported in the Desert

region due to a hot spell last March that affected the bloom, causing trees to shed fruit. Quality is reported as

good. Arizona's 2004-05 lemon forecast, at 2.40 million boxes (91,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous

forecast but 20 percent below the previous season. Arizona’s lemon harvest is underway but behind schedule

as a result of the negative impact of high temperatures and lack of precipitation during the lemon bloom

period.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast, at 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), is unchanged from December 1 but

10 percent more than last season’s utilized production. Harvest of early varieties for fresh market is virtually

complete. Harvest for processing is increasing weekly.

Tangerines: The 2004-05 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 340,000 tons, down 1 percent from the previous

forecast and 22 percent below last season's final utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at

4.50 million boxes (214,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 31 percent below last

season's utilization of 6.50 million boxes. Harvest of Florida’s Fallglo tangerines is complete. Sunburst

harvest is underway. The Honey variety average fruit size remains small and unchanged from last month but

fruit drop rate has increased from 40 percent to 50 percent. The California tangerine forecast, at 2.90 million

boxes (94,000 tons), is unchanged from October but up 7 percent from last season's final utilization. Harvest

is underway but has been slowed by rain. Overall yield and fruit maturity were reported as good. Arizona's
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 16 NASS, USDA

forecast is 450,000 boxes (17,000 tons), down 10 percent from the previous estimate and 35 percent below

last season.

Temples: Florida’s Temples January 1 forecast, at 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season, is

down 12 percent from December and 50 percent below last season’s final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. 

Fruit drop rate, at 17 percent, is up 2 percent from the December forecast. If attained, this drop rate will be

higher than any of the past 10 years. Average fruit size is small and slightly below the median when

compared to the last 10 years.

Florida Citrus: Florida’s citrus growing areas experienced mostly dry weather with moderate temperatures

during most of December. Near the end of the month, temperatures reached the low 30's in some northern

and central locations for very short durations. No damage or loss was reported. Most stations reported

variable amounts of rainfall, from trace amounts to several inches. Most rainfall fell during the third week of

the month. Some growers returned to irrigation on an irregular basis while others stopped irrigation to induce

light tree stress to protect from any later cold weather. Citrus crops and trees in all areas are making good

progress with no major problems reported. Fruit sizes are reported small for all types. Growers are

conducting typical winter cultural practices including weed and cover crop control, dead tree removal and

replacement, and hedging in southern areas. Clean up of groves affected by the hurricanes continues,

including removal of blown over and split trees, and ditch and furrow maintenance. Several fresh fruit

packinghouses did not open this season but others were packing Navel, Hamlin, and Pineapple oranges;

Temples; limited amounts of white and colored grapefruit; and Sunburst and Honey tangerines. All

processors are open to receive packinghouse eliminations and field run early oranges. Harvest labor has been

slow to come to the State with spot shortages reported.

Arizona Citrus: Citrus growers in Yuma county reported approximately 70 percent of the lemon crop has

been harvested at this time. Lemon harvest is behind schedule this year due to high temperatures the last two

weeks of March hurting the lemon crop bloom. This, combined with no precipitation in August, contributed

to lemons being nearly 20 percent lighter than last year. Nearly 10 percent of the grapefruit and

tangerine/tangelo crop has also been harvested at this time. Harvest of these citrus crops is also behind

schedule. In Maricopa county, approximately 63 percent of the navel and sweet oranges crop has been

harvested. Lemons are 49 percent harvested and tangerines/tangelos are 15 percent harvested at this time. 

Citrus groves and quality of fruit are in good condition.

Texas Citrus: Rio Grande Valley producers continue to benefit from adequate water supplies. Both Amistad

and Falcon Reservoirs are at adequate levels due to excess rain in the Trans Pecos region. A rare snowfall

occurred in the Valley on Christmas Eve night and into the early morning of Christmas Day. Snow depths of

1 to 4 inches were common in many groves. According to several thermometer readings in the region, the

lowest temperature was 26 to 27 degrees for 2 or 3 hours, with temperatures quickly rising above freezing. 

Reports show very little damage to fruit, with only small grapefruit and oranges on the top of trees in

northwest corners of groves revealing any freeze damage. Nursery and young trees did have browning leaves

from the freeze but are expected to make a full recovery. Price still remained favorable due to supply

shortages. Very little was expected to be left in groves as producers are picking all they can. A majority of

fruit still remained to be harvested by year’s end.

California Citrus: Citrus growers applied pre-emergent herbicides and white wash in citrus groves. Citrus

crops harvested included Navel oranges, Rio Red grapefruit, Satsuma mandarins, lemons, pummelos,

tangerines, and clementines. The Navel crop was found to have some internal frost damage after it was

received in the packing sheds. Some Navel trees began to exhibit fruit drop as a result of recent freezing

temperatures followed by rain. Citrus fruit maturity and external color were excellent.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers continued seasonal cultural activities in tree fruit

orchards and grape vineyards, but wet weather at the end of the month slowed activities in some areas. Field

work included pruning, shredding, and applying pre-emergent herbicides and dormant sprays. Trees and

vines in older orchards and vineyards were pushed out, stacked, and burned, and the land was prepared for

new plantings. Trees that blew down during the fall storms were removed from productive orchards. 

Harvesting of pomegranates continued into December, but in most locations it was was completed by the end

of the first week of December. Persimmons were harvested throughout the month of December, but harvest

was near completion by month’s end. Strawberry, caneberry, and bareroot nursery stock digging was
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 17 NASS, USDA

underway. Avocado harvesting was also ongoing during December. Olive orchards were pruned and brush

was shredded. Growers continued pruning, shredding, and pre-emergent herbicide applications in nut

orchards. Removal of non-productive orchards and trees that blew down during recent storms also continued. 

Walnut orchards were fumigated. Hulling and shelling of stockpiled nuts were complete by the end of

December.

Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 114 million tons on December 1, 2004, up

3 percent from the previous year. Disappearance of hay from May 2004 - December 2004 totaled

69.4 million tons, compared to 68.6 million tons for the same period a year ago. 

Hay stocks increased in most of the southern Great Plains States. In some areas, the improvement of range

and pasture conditions resulted in a decrease of supplemental feeding of hay. Stocks decreased compared to

last year in many of the western States. In California, an increased demand by dairy producers resulted in

reduced grower supply on hand late in the year.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 18 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and

the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit

droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas

conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California

conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia

oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 5.8 percent. However, if you

exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.1 percent. This means that chances are

two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by

more than 5.8 percent, or 4.1 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.0 percent, or 7.2 percent excluding freeze seasons.

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

429,000 tons (378,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 16,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (16,000 tons to

739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate

6 times and above 14 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does

not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2005 19 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
ACCESS TO REPORTS!!

For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services:

INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go

to the NASS Home Page at: www.usda.gov/nass/. Select “Today’s Reports” or Publications and then Reports Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject.

E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION

All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS

Home Page at www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which

takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and

follow the instructions. 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS

CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)

Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900

(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or

family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). 

USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.
Science, Markets, Policy–What’s Ahead?

Count on USDA’s Outlook Forum 2005 for the

latest farm and commodity prospects and insight

on news shaping the outlook for agriculture. 

Outlook sessions will feature USDA’s first 2005

forecasts for planting, production, trade and prices and

speakers on market developments.

The program will feature the science-agriculture

connection. Today as never before, science is crossing

paths with farming, farm policy and the marketplace.

Topics include managing risks from BSE and Avian

Influenza; prospects for energy prices, ethanol and

co-products; early debate over the next Farm Bill; new

dietary guidelines; the future of the North American

marketplace; WTO talks and the bio-safety protocol.

Attendees will receive new USDA long-term commodity

projections to 2014. USDA agencies will demonstrate

new e-government tools for better service.

Networking opportunities abound at this popular event. 

Register online today. For program updates, send your

name and e-mail address to agforum@oce.usda.gov.

www.usda.gov/oce/forum agforum@oce.usda.gov