CORN FOR GRAIN

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 450 300 66.0 50.0 34,100 29,700 =: 15,000
ARIZ 1/7 ¢ 25 17° 135.0 140.0 4,550 3,375 2,380
ARK 1/0 30 35 82.0 75.0 3,185 2,460 2,625
CALIF 1/ 330 270 130.0 132.0+ 35,750 42,900 35,640
coLo : 830 585 133.0 130.0 108,230 110,390 76,050
CONN 2/

DEL : 182 150 102.0 75.0 15,385 18,564 11,250
FLA 1/ og 245 134 62.0 66.0 17,985 15,190 8,844
GA : 815 770 85.0 68.0 69,000 69,275 52,360
IDAHO 1/ 65 65 120.0 122.0 7,130 7,800 7,930
tL : 11,380 7,800 134.0 80.0 1,454,080 1,524,920 624,000
INO : 6,320 4,600 129.0 74.0 . 654,000 815,280 340,400
OWA : 13,150 B,400 127.0 890 1,758,950 1,591,150 747,600
KANS : 1,230 840 114.0 90.0 148,050 140,220 75,600
ky : 1,490 970 106.0 50.0 149,000 157,940 48,500
tA  ot/  ¢ 40 45 78.0 © 80.0 2,409 3,120 3,600
MAINE 2/

MO : 660 550 107.0 65.0 72,450 70,620 35,750
MASS 2/

MICH : 2,820 1,850 109.0 95.0 273,600 307,380 175,750
MINN : 6,500 4,370 113.0 93.0 744,700 734,500 406,410
MISS 17° 90 80 62,0 56.0 6,440 5,580 4,480
wo : 1,970 1,500 104.0 48.0 213,400 204,880 72,000
MONT 1/ 14 14 100.0 110.0 850 1,400 1,210
NEBR 7 6,940 4,900 111.0 97.0 791,200 770,340 475,300
NH 2 :

NJ If ¢ 112 105 «102.0 85.0 -12,375 11, 424 8,925
N MEX 1/ 90 55 110.0 125.0 9,000 9,900 6,875
NY : 730 550 92.0 87.0 74,400 67,160 47,850
Ne : 1,630 1,350 101.0 53.0 140,910 164,630 71,550
N DAK 1/- 520 350 68.0 80.0 41,553 35,360 28,000
OH10 : 4,060 2,850 117.0 85.0 360,000 475,020 242,250
OKLA 1/ 60 45 100.0 90.0 3,850 6,000 4,050
OREG 1/ 34 20 140.0 145.0 2,970 4,760 2,900
PA / t 1,300 1,150 97.0 65.0 134,400 126,100 74,750
RI 2, 2

sc : 340 290 90.0 60.0 33,060 30,600 17,400
S$ DAK : 2,640 1,700 73.0 65.0 180,600 192,720 110,500
TENN : 650 520 94.0 48.0 55,040 61,100 24,960
TEX : 1,140 1,150 105.0 98.0 127,530 119,700 112,700
UTAH 1/0 17 14 $18.0 120.0 1,650 2,006 1,680
YT 2 :

vA : 595 375° 105.0 45.0 56,250 = 62, 475 16,875
WASH 1/0 190 130 145.0 150.0 14,250 27,550»: 19,500
WVA 1/3 69 62 100.0 92.0 6,256 6,900 5,704
wis t 3,350 2,400 108.0 98,0 378,000 361,800 235,200
wo 17) 49 46 105.0 110.0 5,060 5,145 5,060
us t 73,152 51,404 114.8 82.9 8,201,598 8,397,334 4,259,408

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED {tS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PECANS

Fy PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE

1,000 POUNDS

PECANS IMPROVED Ve
ALA t 21,000 14,000 23,000
ARK : 1,250 300 900
FLA 2 2,000 2,000 1,800
GA t 96,000 105,000 90,000
LA + 4,500 2,500 5,000
MISS : 5,500 3,000 5,500
N MEX fy 20,000 25,000 28,500
Le 2/s 2,000 900 900
OKLA + 2,500 300 1,500
sc . 4,800 1,200 1,100
TEX 2 15,000 14,000 20,000
us t 174,550 168,200 178,200

PECANS NATIVE & SEEDLING 2
ALA : 13,000 9,000 7,000
ARK 2 4,250 200 2,100
FLA ry 3,000 2,500 2,200
GA 2 24,000 20,000 20,000
LA : 19,500 7,500 20,000
MISS 2 3,000 1,000 2,500
nC 2/s 2,200 1,000 1,100
OKLA t 44,500 1,700 13,500
sc t 4,100 1,000 900
TEX 2 47,000 3,000 45,000
us 2 164,550 46,900 114,300

ALL PECANS :
ALA : 34,000 23,000 30,000
ARK % 5,500 500 3,000
FLA 2 5,000 4,500 4,000
GA : 120,000 125,000 110,000
LA : 24,000 10,000 25,000
MIss : 8,500 4,000 8,000
N MEX 2 20,000 25,000 28,500
NC 2/: 4,200 1,900 2,000
OKLA t 47,000 2,000 15,000
sc t 8,900 2,200 2,000
TEX t 62,000 17,000 65,000
us 339100 215, 100 292,500

1/ BUDDED, GRAFTED, OR TOPWORKED VARIETIES.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

AREA

FRESH PRODUCTION

MONTH : TOTAL IN crop HARVESTED

1983: FORECAST

1,000 POUNDS

AUG > 3,435 2,130 2,020 3,284 3,400

SEP > 3,540 2,115 2,110 3,406 +=. 2,000

Oct 2,130 33877 2,800
NOV 2,140 3,654 4,500
DEC 2,090 4,063

JAN 2,255

CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-SEP 33,176 30,690

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


COTTONSEED: Production based on three year average lint-seed ratio, forecast
at 3.04 militon tons (2.76 million metric tons), compared with
4.74 million tons (430 million metric tons) in 1982,

HAY: Production forecast at 143 million tons (129 million metric tons), down

6 percent from 1982, fractionally less than 1981. Area for harvest
estimated at 60.4 million acres (24.4 million hectares), fractfonally below
1982, unchanged from the August 1 estimate. All hay yield of 2.36 tons
compared with last year's record high 2.51 tons. Extremely hot, dry
conditions during July and August throughout the midwest and eastern Seaboard
reduced expected yields from second and third cuttings.

ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES: Forecast at 81.5 mfllion tons (73.9 million
metric tons), 10 percent less than record high
set in 1982, 3 percent less than 1981. Area for harvest, 25.3 million acres
(10.2 millfon hectares), down 5 percent from 1982. Average yield, at 3.22
tons, compares with 3.4] tons a year earlier.

ALL OTHER HAY: Forecast at 61.2 million tons (55.5 million metric tons), 1

percent less than last year's record high, 3 percent above
1981. Area for harvest, at 35.1 million acres (14.2 million hectares), up 3
percent from 1982.

Production of all hay down 30 percent from 1982 in Lowa, 29 percent fn
both Indiana and South Carolina, 24 percent in Georgia, 22 percent in
Missouri, and 21 percent in Illinois. Production of alfalfa hay down 4
percent in Wisconsin and 29 percent in Iowa.

ORY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry edible beans in 1983 forecast at 15.5

million hundredweight (701 thousand metric tons), 38
percent below a year ago, 1 percent above last month's forecast. Average
expected yield per acre of 1387 pounds compares with 1404 pounds in 1982, 1448
pounds in 1981.

In Michigan, above normal temperatures until mid-September allowed beans
to reach full maturity. Harvest of crop began about September 10, continued
at steady, rapid pace. Quality of this year's crop good to excellent.
Harvest in California continues with some delays due to storms in the central
valley. Crop damage has been minimal. Virtually all of crop has been
harvested in Nebraska with yields below expectations. A hafl storm in early
September caused some crop loss. In North Dakota, dry bean harvest 65 percent
complete compared with normal of 71 percent. Colorado's crop good condition
with threshing 77 percent complete, well ahead of normal.

POTATOES: Fall production forecast, 293 million cwt (13.3 million metric

tons), down 5 percent from last year, 1 percent below 1981. Area
for harvest, 1.05 million acres (427 thousand hectares), down 3 percent from
last year, virtually the same as 1981. Average yield, 278 cwt, down 5 cwt
from last year, 3 cwt below two years ago. Harvest progress 45 percent
complete on October 1 compared with 42 percent last year.

Production in the seven Eastern States, 38.0 million cwt, down 19 percent
from last year, 18 percent beTow 1981. Sharp acreage cuts in Maine, New York,
Pennsylvania dropped regional acreage for harvest to 163 thousand acres, 11
percent below 1982, 8 percent below 1981. A wet spring followed by a hot, dry
summer resulted in yield reductions now expected to average 233 cwt per acre,
22 cwt below a year ago, 27 cwt below 1981. Maine production forecast ‘at 21.9
million cut, off 19 percent from last year. Upstate New York growers expect
to produce 5.88 million cwt, off 16 percent; Long Island at 4.24 million cwt
is down 15 percent. Pennsylvania production, 4.30 million cwt, dropped 25
percent on very light tuber set.

Eight Central States to harvest 64.8 million cwt, down 2 percent from last
year, 1 percent more than two years ago. Area for harvest, 315 thousand
acres, up 2 percent, led by a 12 thousand acre increase in the Dakotas.
Yields expected to average 206 cwt per acre, down 10 cwt from last year, 12
cwt below 1981. Poorer yields in Great Lakes States blamed on late planting
and hot, dry summer weather. In Wisconsin, crop of 18.6 million cwt expected,
18 percent below last year. Michigan output forecast at 7.43 millton cwt,
down 8 percent. Both States have larger crops than two years ago. In
Minnesota, some acreage not harvested because of wet fields. Minnesota crop
forecast at 11.4 million cwt, off 1 percent from last year, 14 percent below
1981. North Dakota crop planted in dryer soils than other Central States but
received timely rains during summer. Production forecast 20.6 million cwt, up
19 percent,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA : 2,000 1,400 26.0 17.0 46,460 52,000 23,800
ARK + 4,500 3,850 24.0 18.0 99,000 108,000 69,300
DEL 2/ ‘ 270 245 24.0 25.0 7,020 6,480 6,125
FLA 2/ + 491 410 26.0 25.0 11,040 12,766 10,250
GA : 2,500 1,950 27.0 19.0 39,900 67,500 37,050
iLL t 9,270 8,850 39.0 28.0 351,500 361,530 247,800
IND : 4,500 3,870 39.5 30.0 151,800 177,750 116,100
1OWA : 8,400 7,850 37.9 32.0 326,000 310,800 254,200
KANS 2 1,810 1,610 26.0 15.0 45,300 47,060 24,150
KY : 1,630 1,390 32.0 18.0 47,850 52,160 25,020
LA : 2,900 2,570 26.0 24.0 64,165 75,400 61,680
MD 2 405 360 29.0 23.0 10,915 11,745 8,280
MICH : 1,040 890 31.0 29.0 29,100 32,240 25,810
MINN Hy 4,830 4,600 35.5 31.0 139,200 171,465 142,600
MISS : 3,550 3,020 26.0 18.0 75,600 92,300 54,360
MO ’ 5,800 5,100 30.5 18.0 155,550 176,900 91,800
NEBR : 2,250 2,100 36.0 29.0 78,660 81,000 60,900
NJ 2/ + 170 133 25.0 23.0 4,872 4,250 3,059
nc 2 2,100 1,600 25.0 18.0 46,250 52,500 28,800
N DAK 2/ : 400 530 21.0 25.0 6,440 8,400 13,250
OHIO : 3,700 3,280 37.0 31.0 99,750 136,900 101,680
OKLA 2/ + 280 240 19.0 20.0 6,480 5,320 4,800
PA 2/ : 100 105 32.0 28.0 3,100 3,200 2,940
sc : 1,800 1,380 22.0 15.0 31,000 39,600 20,700
S$ DAK fy 800 935 30.5 27.0 22,330 24,400 25,245
TENN z 2,300 1,850 27.0 16.0 61,100 62,100 29,600
TEX : 920 340 25.5 27.0 10,560 23,460 9,180
VA + 665 610 16.0 16,828 18,620 9,760
Wis 2s t 440 380 31.0 12,375 13,640 11,780
us : 69> Bat 61,448 24.7 2,000,145 2,229,486 1, 2317s 019

1/ REVISED.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AREA PLANTED, SUNFLOWER 1/

1,000 ACRES

OIL VARIETIES
WINN

505
N DAK 3,190
$_DAK 621
TEX 250
vs 4,566
NON-OTL VARIETIES
NINN 35
N DAK 210
S_DAK 4
TEX
us 249
TOTAL
WINN 540
N DAK : 3,400
S_DAK : 625
TEX 250
us : 4,815

1/ REVISE.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 603 880 20 802 680 7.21
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 765 620 4 102 340 3.71
ALL WHEAT 906 170 24 673 540 2.40
OURUM 706 580 995 540 2.35
OTHER SPRING 587 140 4 559 640 2.28
RICE 316 050 900 840 $.32
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/ 255 860 24 867 390 2.15
FLAXSEED 329 820 238 770 0.90
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 516 140 $38 240 3.02
SUNFLOWER 1/ 1 911 760 1 237 540 1.27
ALL COTTON 3 937 030 3 010 650 0.66
UPLAND 3 908 500 2 984 510 0.66
AMER-PIMA 28 530 26 140 0.75
COTTONSEED
ALL HAY 24 556 180 24 440 850 5,63
ALFALFA : 10 743 710 10 223 280 7.64
ALL OTHER : 13 812 470 14 217 570 4.07
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 714 040 450 820 1.57
POTATOES :
FALL H 440 180 426 500 31.69
TOTAL : 515 530 499 390 30.96
SWEETPOTATOES 44 960 39 660 14.42
TOBACCO 367 380 321 000 2.45
SUGARBEETS : 437 150 424 280 46.23
SUGARCANE FOR :
SUGAR ANO SEED : 307 320 314 930 87.88
HOPS : 16 030 14 930 2,22
APPLES, COM'L :
GRAPES

SWEET CHERRIES 3/

TART CHARRIES 3/

PRUNES AND PLUMS
(EXCL CALIF)
PECANS

FILBERTS

CITRUS FRUITS 4/
ORANGES
LEMONS

SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE 4.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

INDICATED
1983 1/

INDICATED
1983 1/ 1982

HECTARE.
OATS : 4 273 930 3 665 680 2.10 1.87
BARLEY : 3 687 980 4 008 450 3.08 2.89
WINTER WHEAT : 23612 450 19 118 360 2.43 2.81
RYE : 289 350 347 220 1.83 1.88
POTATOES.
WINTER 2/ : 4 450 4 570 23.07 21,77
SPRING : 31 570 30 510 29.54 25.99
SUMMER : 39 340 37 800 24.76 20.97
PEACHES
PEARS
APRICOTS.
NECTARINES (CALIF)

DRIED PRUNES (CALIF)
PLUMS (CALIF)

OLIVES (CALIF)

ALMONDS (CALIF) :
WALNUTS (CALIF)

SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE A-6, (CONTINUED)

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 ACB CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


APPLES, COMMERCIAL 1/

PRODUCTION

TOTAL a

INDICATED
1983

“MILLION POUNDS

ARK 3/ 10.0 22.0
CALIF 480.0 520.0
COLO 40.0 85.0
CONN 55.0 41.0
DEL 3/ 14.5 13.5
GA 3/ 15.0 20.0
1DAHO 126.0 130.0
a5 88.0 90.0
IND 77.0 56.0
1OWA 3/ 11.5 12.5
KANS 3/ 12.5 16.0
KY 3/ 12.0 16.0
MAINE 89.0 85.0
iD 80.0 77.0
MASS 100.0 95.0
MICH 980.0 750.0
MINN 3/ 25.0 25.0
MO 45.0 50.0
NH 56.0 52.0
NJ 140.0 100.0
N MEX 3/ 12.0 6.0
NY 1,130.0 1,130.0
ne 170.0 400.0
OHIO 150.0 90.0
OREG 150.0 165.0
PA 525.0 440.0
RI 6.0 5.0
sc 3/ 6.0 24.0
TENN 3/ 4.5 8.5
UTAK 3/ t 54.0 54.0 58.0
VT 2 28.0 50.0 44.0
VA 3 465.0 500.0 390.0
WASH : 2,760.0 2,600.0 3,000.0
WVA : 200.0 240.0 210.0
wis ' 59.0 56.0 55.0
us . 7,753.6

1/ IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES.
2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1981-47.7,1982-13.8.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

: 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1, 000 BUSHELS
65 55 40.0 36.0 2,146 2,600 1,980
13 18 84.0 86.0 2,158 1,092 1,548
263 340 60.0 49.0 16,986 15,780 15,190
130 70 77.0 78.0 8,880 10,010 5,460
380 310 34.0 34.0 12,775 12,920 10,540
13507 80 42.0 35.0 4,455 5,670 2,800
82 75 80.0 60.0 5,544 6,560 4,500
13 7 73.0 50.0 720 949 350
10 15 65.0 70.0 1,600 650 1,050
3,350 2,800 62.0 43.0 238,520 207,700 120,400
38 38 74.0 65.0 2,250 2,812 2,470
175 170 45.0 45.0 2,592 7,875 7,650
115 270 60.0 54.0 3,872 6,900 14,580
870 640 81.0 54.0 75,200 70,470 34,560
1,670 1,080 73.0 59.0 164,800 121,910 63,720
310 160 47.0 38.0 12,240 14,570 6,080
70 50 53.0 40.0 4,134 3,710 2,000
510 350 39.0 33.0 22,050 19,890 11,550
35 26 46.0 35.0 576 1,610 980
375 300 46.0 42.0 19,565 17,250 12,600
79 100 56.0 47.0 4,200 4,424 4,700
5,550 34200 55.0 49.0 273,420 305,250 156,800
9 53.0 44.0 539 4q7 484

14,247 10, 137 59. 0 Te 5 879,222 B41, 079 481,992

v/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. .

1,000 ACRES POUNDS

1,330.0 915.0 4,290 4,300 69,610
535.0 337.0 6,850 6,800 40,924
598.0 385.0 4,160 4,000 27,078
235.0 155.0 4,200 4,100 14,792

80.0 55.0 4,480 4,200 3,099
474.0 379.0 690 4,300
3,252.0 2,226.0 4 4,610

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL HAY

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION —— _
IND ¢ . ~
1983 : 1982 1982 + 1983

1,000 ACRES

1,000 TONS

1.90 1,235 1,040
6.71 1,241 1,195
1.84 1,584 1,257
5.21 7,656 7,215
2.49 3,661 4,000
2.27 202 207
2.67 48 56
2.40 569 504
2.40 1,200 912
3.32 4,446 4,536
3.20 3,615 2,850
3.06 2,495 1,773
3.69 8,260 5,760
2.56 6,013 4,947
2.14 3,397 3,013
2.21 772 740
1.92 428 429
2.58 2.58 55% 633 659
2.38 9 2.35 278 293 294
3.20 2.98 3,894 4,379 4,170
2.88 2.97 8,206 8,264 8,244
2.10 2.00 1,249 1,575” *1,350
1.93 1.57 6,750 6,530 5,068
2.08 1.98 4,808 5,105 4,688
2.06 1.99 7,010 7,810 7,875
2.28 2.26 1,046 1,134 1,175
2.23 2.18 201 203 201
2.99 2.69 276 311 309
4.33 4.10 1,397 1,384 1,394
2.30 2.33 5,273 5,283 5,284
1.68 = 1.47 636 664 625
1.74 1.57 4,761 5,588 4,703
2.75 2.56 3,473 3,580 3,432
2,09 1.67 3,307 3,176 3,156
2.77 2.89 2,886 2,967 3,263
2.42 2.31 4,535 4,840 4,534
2.10 2.20 19 2 22
2.20 1.60 aig 484 344
1.99 2.02 5,786 8,635 8,370
1.65 1.56 2,078 2,190 2,103
2.25 2.51 6,959 6,708 7,33

3.56 93.40 2,186 2,118 1,957
2.09 2.09 973 962 949
1.66 1.41 1,640 1,677 1,485
3.48 93.42 2,542 2,889 2,840
1.40 1.58 817 882 986
3.46 3.38 11,055 13,158 12,938
1.88 © 2.09 2,129 2,162 2,471

2.51 2.36 143,201 152,424 142,654

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ARIZ 1/
CALIF 1/

AREA HARVESTED
+ IND
19ez : 1983

1,000 ACRES
79 55
125 65
78 38
340 205

DURUN WHEAT

~BUSHELS
89.0 86.0 18,275
93.0 82.0 14,685
39.0 36.0 5,400
30.0 20.0 13,040
27.0 130,790
29.0 5,750
29.4 185,940

PRODUCTION

1982

1,000 BUSHELS

7,031
11,625

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST

. OTHER SPRING WHEAT

AREA HARVESTED

IND
1983

4,730
5,330
1,368
4,100

54,540
2,233

72,301

PRODUCTION

: 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
:

colo 1/ 48 60 73.0 75.0 4,002 3,504 4,500
IDAHO : 580 475° 72.0 75.0 34,100 41,760 = 35,625
MINN : 3,020 2,090 40.0 37.0 134,000 120,800 77,330
MONT t 2,900 1,860 32.0 27.0 72,540 92,800 50,220
NEV o1/ 14 10 60.0 65.0 800 840 650
N OAK : 6,900 5,000 31.0 27.0 197,400 213,900 135,000
OREG 1/ 100 85 40.0 45.0 4,180 4,000

S DAK 3 2,350 1,400 25.0 27.0 52,800 58,750 37,800
UTAH 1/ 33 23 50.0 50.0 1,350 1,650 1,150
WASH : 280 220 48.0 = 50.0 7,040 13,440 11,000
wis 1/ 28 23° 32.0 = 30.0 868 896 690
wWro 1/ 24 21 27.0 32.0 180 648 672
us : 16,277 18,267 34.0 31.8 509,260 552,988 358,462

7 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST

AREA PLANTED, SOYBEANS Vv

1,000 ACRES

WV REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION,

©
w
a
°

OCTOBER 1983

B-4

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS,

5,900
2,320
172
2,150
410
3,750
300
110
1,850
820
2,400

USDA


GRAPES

PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE

TOTAL 1/

TABLE TYPE :
CALIF : 420,000 602,000 420,000
WINE TYPE
CALIF : 1,794,000 2,402,000 1,750,000
RAISIN TYPE DRIED 2/s
CALIF : 256,000 288,000
RAISIN TYPE NOT DRIED t
CALIF : 755,000 1,112,000
RAISIN TYPE
CALIF 1,779,000 3,134,000 2,200,000
ALL_GRAPES
ARIZ 12,400 15,100 13,500
ARK 6,000 10,500 9,500
CALIF 3,993,000 6,138,000 4,370,000
GA 00 2,500
MICH 53,000 58,500 60,000
Mo 2,200 2,500 3,400
NY 150,000 157,000 185,000
Nc 5,100 4,500 5,000
OK 10 10,300 9,000 8,000
PA 61,000 47,000 57,000
sc 2,400 2,500
WASH 159,000 168,900 215,000
OTHER STATES 5,600
4,457,600 6,616,200 4,931,400

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(TONS): US 1981600, 1982-780,200.
2/ DRIED BASIS:1 TON OF RAISINS 1S EQUIVALENT TO 4.00
TONS OF FRESH GRAPES FOR 1981 AND 5.25 TONS FOR 1982.
3/ FRESH EQUIVALENT OF DRIED AND NOT DRIED.
4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
5/ GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA FOR 1981.

PRUNES AND PLUMS

' PRODUCT 1 ON

IDAHO
MICH
OREG
WASH
us
1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT $0LD
(TONS): U S$ 1981-2,500, 1982-7,000.

FILBERTS

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 8-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PAPAYAS: Hawaii fresh papaya production forecast 2.80 million pounds (1270

metric tons) for October, up 40 percent from September, down 28
percent from a year ago. Production expected to reach seasonal peak in
November at 4.50 million pounds (2040 metric tons), then decline through
December and January to 4.00 and 3.45 million pounds, respectively (1810 and
1560 metric tons).

September fresh production estimated at 2.00 million pounds (910 metric
tons), down 41 percent from both the previous month and a year ago. The small
September output, lowest since March 1980, caused by extremely dry weather
during first quarter of year.

Total area in crop increased 3 percent from previous month to a record
high 3540 acres (1430 hectares). Harvested acreage rose to 2110 acres (850
hectares), an increase of 4 percent from August.

PECANS: U.S. forecast at 293 million pounds (133 thousand metric tons)
in-shell basis, up 2 percent from September 1 forecast, 36 percent
above last year's crop.

Georgia forecast continues 110 million pounds, 12 percent less than 1982.
Alabama forecast continues 30.0 million pounds, 30 percent above last year.
Texas forecast remains 65.0 million pounds, compared with 17.0 million pounds
in 1982, New Mexico forecast is 28.5 million pounds, 14 percent above 1982.
Louistana forecast at 25.0 miltion pounds, Oklahoma at 15.0 million pounds.

FILBERTS: Forecast of production in Oregon and Washington continues 8500 tons

(7710 metric tons), 55 percent less than last year. Harvest
progressing about two weeks ahead of normal due to excellent weather and very
small crop.

ORANGES: First forecast U.S. production 1983-84 season 223 million boxes (8.74

million metric tons), virtually the same as last season, 26 percent
above 1981-82 season. Forecast for all Florida oranges is 168 million boxes,
20 percent above last season's crop, 34 percent more than freeze damaged crop
harvested 1981-82. Production of Florida early and mid-season varieties 94.0
million boxes, 34 percent more than last season, 27 percent above 1981-82 crop.
Florida Valencia production expected to total 74.0 million boxes, 7 percent
more than last season's crop, 43 percent above 1981-82 production.
California's 1983-84 orange crop forecast at 46.0 million boxes, 37 percent
less than last season, 10 percent above 1981-82 season. Navel crop California
expected to total 27.0 million boxes, 33 percent below 1982-83 crop, 2 percent
above 1981-82. California Valencia forecast 19.0 million boxes, 42 pecent less
than last season's crop, 23 pecent above 1981-82, Arizona all orange crop
expected to total 3.20 million boxes, 16 percent betow last season, 5 percent
above 1981-82 crop. All orange production in Texas forecast at 5.30 million
boxes, down 7 percent from last season, 11 percent less than 1981-82.

Very large fruit sizes expected in California this season. Approximately
30 percent of the previous season (1982-83) Valencia crop remains to be
shipped. Limited harvest of 1983-84 Navel crop from early shipping areas
expected to begin near end of month. The outlook is for good, clean exterior
quality with minimal thrips damage, but some rough texture expected.

Maturity of Florida crop behind normal and much later than last year's
early season. Fruit sizes very small but expected to develop rapidly as season
progresses due to excellent moisture conditions.

The October 1 U.S. ail orange production forecast has deviated from the
final production by an average of 16.9 million boxes over the past 9 seasons,
ranging from 2.50 million boxes in 1977-78 to 44.4 million boxes in the 1981-82
season which was severely reduced by freeze damage in Florida.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: Forecast 1983-84 al] orange FCOJ
yield is 1.43 gallons per box at 42.0
degrees 8rix equivalent. The yield forecast is for the season average which
will be reported at end of the season by the Florida Citrus Processor's
Association. Final 1982-83 season average yield was 1.48305 gallons per box at
42.0 degrees Brix equivalent and 1.27730 gallons per box for the 1981-82
season,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Leaves were dropping on 72 percent of the soybean acreage by October 2,
compared with 65 percent last year. Harvesting was underway in all States
except South Carolina. Combining reached 20 percent finished by October 2--6
points ahead of last year. Harvesting trailed the average in Alabama,
Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Progress ranged from 1 percent
harvested in Georgia and North Carolina to 40 percent complete in Tilinois and
Indiana.

Cotton was in fair to poor condition. By October 2, bolls were opening on
69 percent of the acreage in the major producing States compared with 67
percent for both last year and the average. Harvesting was 12 percent
finished, trailing the 16 percent average. Picking was active in all States,
except California, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. Progress ranged from 2 percent
complete in Arizona to 52 percent finished in Missouri,

Seventy-seven percent of the sorghum acreage was mature on October 2--the
average is 69 percent. In Nebraska, 95 percent was mature, compared with an
average of 60 percent. Harvesting was 41 percent complete in the major
States, ahead of the average of 40 percent. Harvesting was active in al)
States. Losses were expected from the late-month freeze across the northern
High Plains of Texas.

Rice was 59 percent harvested by October 2, behind the 63 percent
average. Progress ranged from 7 percent finished in California to 100 percent
in Texas.

CORN: Grain production forecast, 4.26 billion busheTts (108 million metric
tons), down 3 percent from last month, 49 percent below last year, and
Towest since 1970.

U.S. yield forecast, 82.9 bushels, down 2.2 bushels from last month, off
31.9 bushels from last year's record high. Yields down substantially in major
States due to dry, hot weather during season. U.S. yield lowest since 1974.

Rain received across Corn Belt py mid-September too late to do much good
after hot, dry weather in July and August. Freezing temperatures across
northern Plains and into western Corn Belt caused only limited damage because
of advanced maturity. Harvesting now ahead of normal in 17 major States with
24 percent harvested by October 2--14 percent average. Conditions for harvest
excellent with generally open, dry weather persisting.

U.S, CORN PRODUCTION

+ ore-1083
DILLIO wus

m1

” cy ” ”
‘OCTOBER FORECAST

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: Production forecast at 482 million bushels (12.2 million

metric tons), 43 percent less than last year, 45 percent
less than 1981. Yield, forecast at 47.5 bushels per acre, 11.5 bushels less
than 1982 and 16.6 bushels less than record high 64.1 bushels per acre set in
1981.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


POUNDS

1,000 POUNDS

3,700 3,370 1,680 850 685
1,730 1,750 5,610 6,401 6,300
1,800 1,590 12,384 13,140 40,017

2,070 1349 59,470 76588 51,145

1/ 1983 QUANTITIES AVAILABLE FOR MARKET WILL BE GOVERNED
BY REGULATIONS ISSUED UNDER FEDERAL MARKET ORDER 991.

2/ INCLUDES HOPS LOST BY FIRE(POUNDS): 1981-WASH. 90,000,
1982-WASK. 5,000.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/

STATE =: AVERAGE AVERAGE
+ 1972-81 1972-81
3 PERCENT

ALA t 74 93 102
ARIZ + 69 82 80
ARK : 74 t 76 74 48
CALIF = 73 t 77 85 60
cOLO : 69 fy 84 73 72
CONN : 80 3 78 77 53
DEL : 78 2 68 73 69
FLA : 81 87 79 48
GA t 68 3 73 73 59
IDAHO : 80 Fy 83 86 94
TLL 2 79 : 80 71 34
IND : 85 : 85 81 82
1OWA t 80 2 67 78 55
KANS : 74 : 66 or 81
KY fy 85 z 79 88 47
LA t 75 : 72 50 56
MAINE = 81 2 73 97 101
MD : 76 : 83 80 83
MASS : 81 : 81 80 53
MICH 3 61 3 79 74 93
MINN oo: 76 t 84 75 52
MISS 3 75 : 79 87 85
MO 2 73 F 80 96 ot
MONT 2 7 2

1/ 6000 To EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64; SEVERE
DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


DRY EDIBLE BEANS

AREA HARVESTED YIELD
z IND: t IND + ‘ tND
1982 : 1983 1962 : 1983 : 1981 : 1982 1983

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 cwr
LARGE LIMA +
CALIF 2 31.0 30.0 2,010 2,020 639 623 606
BABY LIMA '
CALIF 2 27.0 26.0 2,150 2,300 661 581 598
OTHER :
CALIF t 168.0 94.0 1,570 1,600 2,805 2,638 1,504
ALL DRY BEANS:
CALIF % 226.0 150.0 1,700 1,805 4,105 3,842 2,708
COLO : 170.0 107.0 1,210 1,230 2,683 2,057 1,316
1DAHO : 141.0 98.0 1,840 1,780 4,277 2,594 1,744
KANS 2/t 24.0 10.5 1,000 1,400 935 240 147
MICH : 350.0 340.0 1,350 1,250 7,198 7,425 4,250
MINN 3 73.0 51.0 1,300 1,250 1,277 949 637
MONT 2/: 8.4 3.0 1,650 1,600 218 139 48
NEBR : 212.0 130.0 1,500 1,650 4,025 3,180 2,145
NY : 49.0 28.0 1,200 1,050 378 588 294
N DAK : 240.0 157.0 1,050 950 4,565 2,520 1,492
UTAH 2s 10.0 6.5 460 480 60 46 31
WASH 3 32.0 15.0 2,070 2,180 1,380 662 327
WYO ‘ 29.0 18.0 1,800 1,750 882 522 315
us + 1,764.4 114.0 1,404 1,387 32,183 24,764 15,454

1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SWEETPOTATOES

AREA PLANTED, FALL POTATOES

STATE

N Y-LONG 1S 18.8 16.5
CAL IF -UPSTATE 28.0 25.5
COLO N DAK : 122.0 128.0
CONN OHIO : 10.0
WDAHO-10 5¥ CO OREG-MALHEUR CO: 10.7

OTHER CO -OTHER CO): 42.8
IND PA : 24,0
MAINE RI t 3.0
MASS S_DAK 17.0
MICH UTAH : 5.8
MINN VT : +6
WONT WASH > 110.0
NEBR Wis 2 66.0
: 5.3

:

:

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield
surveys taken about October 1. The yield surveys include mailed reports from
farmers for all crops and actual.field observations and measurements for corn,
soybeans, cotton, wheat, and some fruit and nut crops. Farmers provided
appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops on
their farms and for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small
plot observations, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These
surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common
to ail surveys. More importantly, the production forecasts are subject to
change due to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured
currently but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by expressing
the deviations between the October 1 production forecasts and the final
estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1963-82 20-year period; the square root of this
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current
forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for
grain production forecast is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out
of 3 that the current production forecast of 4259 million bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximatel
162 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level
that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approximately 281 million
bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 221 million bushels, ranging
from 16 million to 548 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 8 times and above 2 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
Production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimates is about equally distributed.

RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR 10-YEAR RECORD OF

mac ecw neeese DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
0% CONFIDENCE AND FINAL ESTIMATE
LEVEL

CROP AND

FEED GRAINS 1/ MT
CORN FOR GRAIN BU
SORGHUM FOR :
GRAIN
ALL WHEAT

DURUM BU
OTHER SPRING
RICE

I
SOYBEANS FOR
BEANS
COTTON BALE
FALL POTATOES

1/_ CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY (CONTINUED)
(METRIC UNITS)

PRODUCTION

CORN FOR GRAIN : 213 302 110 111 522 390 108 193 950
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 3 21 364 390 12 192 870 12 243 160
ALL WHEAT + 76 441 290 65 541 040 65 524 300
DURUM : 4014 370 1 984 450 1 967 710
OTHER SPRING . 15 049 870 9 755 740 9 755 740
RICE 6 995 120 4714 140 4 654 900
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/ 60 676 670 41 775 010 4) 286 490
FLAXSEED 295 54 191 400 188 300
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 1 859 590 1 318 000 1 323 620
SUNFLOWER 1/ 2 418 910 1 437 860
ALL COTTON 2 604 540 1 692 910 1 643 700
UPLAND 2 583 050 1 675 270 3 625 410
AMER-PIMA 21 490 17 640 18 290
COTTONSEED 4 303 680 2 833 140 2.755 120
ALL HAY 138 276 720 27132 053 440 V29 413 540
ALFALFA 82 112 010 2/76 531 010 73 900 180
ALL OTHER 56 164 710 2/55 522 430 55 513 360
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1 123 270 694 400 700 980
POTATOES
FALL 13 949 070 13 276 400
TOTAL 15 958 290 14 961 260
SWEETPOTATOES 648 180 476 180 $04 710
TOBACCO 899 130 618 300 625 070
SUGARBEETS 19 286 750 19 306 710 19 231 410
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED 27 006 890 27 624 680 27 468 650
HOPS 35 630 32 500 30 910
APPLES, COM'L 3 678 610 2/ 3 801 $40 3.756 410
GRAPES 6 002 120 4 816 610 4 473 690
SWEET CHERRIES 3/ 141 250 163 020
TART CHARRIES 3/ 147 020 70 810
PRUNES AND PLUMS
(EXCL CALIF) $3 980 56 430 53 070
PECANS 97 570 130 180 132 680
FILBERTS 17 060 7 710 7710
CITRUS FRUITS 4/ 1982-83 1983-84 1993-84
LEMONS 859 100 965 240

1/ 1982 REVISED. 2/ AUG 1, 1983, 3/ CARRIED FORWARD FROM CHERRY UTILIZA-
TION REPORT RELEASED OCT 4, 1983. 4/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE
FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

PRODUCTION

INDICATED
1983 1/
METRIC TONS
OATS 8 955 450 6 858 910
BARLEY 11 373 630 11 576 990
WINTER WHEAT 57 377 050 53 800 850
RYE 528 780 652 760
POTATOES
WINTER 2/ 102 650 99 470
SPRING 932 540 792 830
SUMMER 974 040 792 560
PEACHES 1 039 900 893 480
PEARS 730 280 720 400
APRICOTS 102 420 94 800
NECTARINES (CALIF) 156 940 172 370
ORIED PRUNES (CALIF) : 114 310 122 470
PLUMS (CALIF) 107 500 154 220
OLIVES (CALIF) 132 450 59 870
ALMONDS (CALIF) 157 400 113 400
WALNUTS (CALIF) 212 280 163 290

17° ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1983 REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FLORIDA GENERAL CITRUS COMMENTS: Citrus groves in excellent condition during

September. Very little irrigation during
the month due to above average rainfall most citrus growing locations. There
continued to be an abundance of new growth on trees of all ages. New crop
fruit made very good progress although early fruit appears to be at least a
month behind the very early maturing harvest of last year. By mid September,
there was a lot of color break on early maturing grapefruit, and a few early
orange varieties. Harvest for 1983-84 season started middle of September with
a crop of white seedless grapefruit picked in Martin County near Stuart. By
end of September, several fresh frutt gackinghouses had packed their first
fruit of new season.

GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects for the 1983-84 season, excluding California “Other

areas" grapefruit, indicate a crop of 63.9 million boxes (2.38
million metric tons), 11% percent more than last season, 6 percent below
1981-82 crop. The California “Other areas" grapefruit production, which will
be forecast as of April 1, 1984, accounted for 3.20 million boxes harvested
Yast season, 2.60 million boxes in 1981-82.

Florida's grapefruit forecast of 46.0 million boxes is 17 percent more
than last season's crop, 4 percent below 1981-82. Texas crop of 11.5 million
boxes, 3 percent more than last season, 17 percent below 1981-82. California
"Desert areas" crop forecast at 4.20 million boxes, 2 percent above previous
season, 24 percent greater than 1981-82 crop. Limited picking has begun in
Florida, harvest is expected to start this month in California desert areas
and Texas. Shipments continue from California's previous season (1982-83)
“Other areas" grapefruit crop.

LEMONS: Arizona-California lemon crop (tree crop available for harvest)
“~~ tatals 28.0 million boxes (965 thousand metric tons), 12 percent more
than crop harvested during 1982-83 season, 13 percent above 1981-82 utilized
production. In California, crop expected to total 21.5 million boxes, 8
percent more than Jast season, 16 percent above 1981-82. Picking underway in
desert areas, limited in southern coastal areas.

In Arizona, a crop of 6.50 million boxes is expected, 29 percent above
1982-83 crop utilized last season, 3 percent more than utilized production in
1981-82. Harvest underway, will increase substantially in coming weeks.

TANGELOS: Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-early citrus fruit, forecast at
3.20 million boxes (131 thousand metric tons), 16 percent less than
1982-83 crop, 37 percent below 1981-82 production. Light harvest has begun.

TANGERINES: U.S. tangerine crop forecast at 5.80 million boxes (224 thousand
metric tons), 10 percent more than last season, 16 percent above
1981-82, Florida forecast, at 2.90 million boxes, is for that portion of crop
expected to reach size of 210 fruit per 4/5 bushel carton by December 1 for
Dancy and November 1 for Robinson. (An estimate of utilized crop will be
shown in February Crop Production release.) Light picking started in Florida.

Prospects for California's tangerine crop, at 1.90 million boxes, down 10

percent from last season's production. Arizona grower's expect to harvest
1.00 million boxes, 14 percent more than harvested Tast season.

TEMPLES: Florida's temples forecast at 4.50 miltion boxes (184 thousand metric
tons), 4 percent below last season, 41 percent greater than the
1981-82 crop. Harvest expected to start late December or early January.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-19 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



SEPTEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

Hot, dry weather dominated the Plains early in the month and spread
eastward. Record high temperatures were recorded over the East Coast States
just before midmonth. Much cooler air began to move into the northern Rockies
after the first week and spread over all of the East in the latter half of the
month, Freezing temperatures reached as far south as the Texas Panhandle and
eastward to the northern Mississippi Valley. Isolated frost occurred in many
Parts of the East. Large areas of the Nation had less than half the normal
rainfall. The eastern slopes of the Rockies, the area along a line from
central Texas to West Virginia, and much of the East Coast States had less
than half the normal rain. Persistant showers all month, and very heavy
Showers near the end of the month in the Southwest caused severe flooding from
central Arizona into southwestern New Mexico. Ory weather in the southern
Plains delayed planting of winter grains but most areas to the north and
across the Corn Belt fared better. (Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural
Weather Facility.)

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

Winter wheat seeding for 1984 harvest advanced to 48 percent completion by
October 2, compared with the 55 percent average. Seeding was underway in all
States except California, where the crop is normally seeded later. Conditions
were favorable for germination in all areas except in parts of the central and
southern Plains where growers delayed seeding as they waited for improved soil
moisture. The crop had emerged on 21 percent of the acreage, 6 percentage
points behind normal.

At the end of September, planting was underway in most areas of Kansas.
However, progress was running 20 percentage points behind normal. Producers
had seeded only 45 percent of the acreage by October 2. Moisture was short in
most localitfes and stands had emerged on only 15 percent of the acreage,
compared with 25 percent for both Tast year and the average.

Minimal amounts of rain fell during September in Texas, except along the
coast. Seeding activities were slowed because of dry soil conditions but
Producers in some areas did dust wheat in. Seeding was 31 percent complete by
October 2, compared with 39 percent last year and 46 percent average.
Early-seeded fields need moisture to establish stands. Only 5 percent of the
crop had emerged compared with the average of 22 percent. In Oklahoma,
plantings reached the half-way mark, the same as the average. However, dry
conditions held emergence to 10 percent, half the normal pace.

Nebraska producers had seeded 95 percent of the 1984 crop, 5 points ahead
of the average. In South Dakota, growers planted 95 percent of the acreage,
equal to the average. Stands had emerged on 75 percent of the acreage.
Because of the early harvest of soybeans across the Corn Belt, wheat seeding
was ahead of schedule, except in Illinois where progress trailed the average
by 6 points. Progress in Montana was 5 percentage points ahead of normal at
the end of September with seeding 65 percent finished. Germination was fair
to good. Thirty percent of the acreage had emerged, compared with 10 percent
for both last year and the average.

ROW CROP PROGRESS

Corn and soybeans were in poor to fair condition in most of the Corn Belt
and Southeast because of the dry weather which prevailed through the summer
and into mid-September, Freezing temperatures pushed southward late in the
month across the northern Plains into portions of the extreme western Corn
Belt. Damage to corn was limited because of the advanced maturity of the
crop. However, the freeze promoted fast drying in this region. Some
Tate-planted soybeans were damaged by the freeze in these areas.

Corn was 94 percent mature by October 2. Twenty-four percent of the crop
had been harvested, 14 points ahead of last year and 10 points ahead of the
average. Harvesting was underway in all major States, with progress ranging
from 4 percent complete in Colorado to 86 percent finished in Georgia. Crop
maturity was equal to or ahead of normal in all major States except Kentucky,
Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SUNFLOWER

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

1981 : 1982 1/

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
OIL :
MINN : 475 230 1,350 738,270 641,250
NODAK oo: 3,140° 2,170 1,100 2,880,000 3,454,000
S DAK t 619 469 1,060 470,800 656,140
TEX : 245 34 1,200 29,500 294,000
us : 4,479 2,903 1,126 4,118,570 5,045,390
NON-OIL ot
MINN 3 33 9 1,030 85,280 33,990
NDAK oo: 208 144 1,200 278,160 249,600
S DAK: 4 2 960 1,800 3,840
TEX : 3,600
us 245 155 1,173 368,840 287,430
TOTAL
MINN 508 239 1,329 «1,250 823,550 675,240 298,750
N DAK 3,348 2,314 1,106 1,000 3,158,160 3,703,600 2,314,000
$_DAK 623 471 1,059 1,100 472,600 659,980 518,100
TEX 245 34 1,200 1,150 | 33,100 294,000 39,100
us 4,724 3,058 t.t2g 1,037 4,487,410 5,332, 820 3,169, 930

Vv REVISED.

FLAXSEED

1,000 BUSHELS

1,300 1,650 910
4,250 6,650 4,980

PEANUTS FOR NUTS

+ AREA HARVESTED

7, 000 ACRES POUNDS

1,000 POUNDS

177.0 183.0 2,950 2,200 602,730 522,150 402,600
51.0 3,000 2,650 178,200 153,000 148,400
472.0 3,215 2,600 1,655,450 1,517,480 1,365,000

12,730

: 10.4 2,500 24,900 25,220 27,500
: 147.0 2,000 555,560 415,275 294,000
: 86.0 2,000 189,280 174,580 168,000
: 12.0 1,700 39,000 30,000 22,100
: 225.0 1,500 393,250 325.125 322,500
: 330, 750

168,000
0

2,918,10

17 ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1981 CROP.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-6 CROP REPORTING °F 99D SRS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION = (S"

"7 ‘i
Released: October 12, 1983 statistical Reporting
eT

US. Department
of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production forecast at 4.26 billion bushels (108 million metric
tons), down 3 percent from September 1 forecast and 49 percent below last
year's record high. The 90 percent confidence interval for this production
is 3.98 to 4.54 billion bushels.

SORGHUM GRAIN production forecast at 482 million bushels (12.2 million metric
tons), up fractionally from September 1 but down 43 percent from last year.

FEED GRAIN production (corn, sorghum, oats and barley combined) expected to
otal 139 million metric tons, down 46 percent from 1982.

SOYBEAN production forecast at 1.52 billion bushels (41.3 million metric tons)
percent less than September 1 and 32 percent below last year. If
realized, this will be the smallest crop since 1976. The 90 percent confi-
dence interval for this 1983 production forecast is 1.42 to 1.61 billion
bushels.

OILSEED production (soybean, cottonseed, peanuts, flaxseed and sunflower com-
bined) is expected to total 47.0 million metric tons, down 32 percent from
last year.

FOOD GRAIN production (wheat, rye and rice) expected to total 70.8 million
Metric tons, down 16 percent from 1982.

ALL COTTON production forecast at 7.55 million bales, 37 percent below 1982
production, and 3 percent below a month earlier. The 90 percent confidence
interval for this forecast is 6.83 million to 8.27 million bales.

FALL POTATO production forecast at 293 million cwt (13.3 million metric tons),
lown 5 percent from last year, 1 percent below 1981.

ORANGE production forecast at nearly 223 million boxes (8.74 million metric
~~ tons), virtually the same as last season, 26 percent more than 1981-82.

SUGAR CROPS: Sugarbeet production forecast at 21.2 million tons (19.2 million

metric tons), fractionally lower than both September 1 forecast
and 1982 crop. Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed forecast at record
high 30.3 million tons (27.5 million metric tons), 1 percent below September 1
estimate, up 2 percent from a year ago.

FRI IR IIR IIA II ITI KIKI II II IR IKI III IIR ISI II III III II IISA IIIS IIS ASIA IRISH,
* Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports *
* should be directed to Crop Reporting Board Publications, Room 5829 - *

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CrPr 2-2 (10-83) For Information Cat}: (202) 447-2127


Atlantic Coast States yields down from last year. Georgia and Maryland
increased 2.0 and 3.0 bushels from last month, South Carolina and Virginia
down 1.0 bushel.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

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“ “ ns TM nn 7 7” os a Lod

e0icTOBER FORECAST ws

FLAXSEED: Production of flaxseed is forecast at 7.41 million bushels (188

——=" thousand metric tons), down 2 percent from the September 1 forecast,
36 percent below 1982. Yield forecast at 12.6 bushels per acre compared with
12.8 bushels last month and 14.3 bushels last year.

Yield prospects in North Dakota remained unchanged from September 1, while
yields in Minnesota and South Dakota dropped 1.0 bushel and a 0.5 bushel,
respectively. Harvest in North Dakota ‘about 88 percent complete, ahead of the
71 percent average. Harvest virtually complete in South Dakota.

PEANUTS: Production forecast at 2,92 billion pounds (1.32 million metric

tons), 15 percent below 1982 -- up fractionally from last month.
Reduction in yields caused decline in production from 1982. Yield forecast at
2194 pounds, up 9 pounds from last month -- 502 pounds below last year's

record high yield.

Southeastern growers (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina) expect
their production to total 1.94 billion pounds, 13 percent below last year -- 2
percent above last month. Yield prospects up 51 pounds from last month to
2494 pounds per acre. Yield averaged 3122 pounds per acre in 1982. Georgia's
yield, forecast at 2600 pounds, up 100 pounds from September 1, 615 pounds
below last year. Harvest underway but lags well behind normal. Farmers
leaving crop in ground long as possible, hoping to add more poundage.
Florida's crop continued to suffer from dry weather with yield prospects
declining 200 pounds from September 1. Alabama estimates unchanged from last
month. Harvest progressing on schedule, considerably behind last year's pace.

The Virginia-North Carolina crop estimated at 462 million pounds, 4
percent below September 1 forecast, 33 percent below last year. Yield
prospects down 79 pounds from last month's forecast, 953 pounds below one year
ago. Harvest just underway in North Carolina, well behind normal. Farmers
delaying harvest long as possible. Virginia's yield at 1750 pounds dropped
200 pounds from September 1. Rains arrived late September, but of a little
benefit. Harvest underway, about a week behind normal. Some spraying for
leaf spot and spider mites.

The crop in the southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas) estimated at 518
million pounds, 2 percent below last month's forecast, 1 percent below 1982.
Yield prospects down 100 pounds from last month in Oklahoma -- unchanged in
Texas. Yields good central Texas, moisture stress lowered yields in northern
producing areas. Hot dry weather during September continued to plagued crop
in Oklahoma.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Early freeze September 20-21 stopped sorghum growth in Colorado, Kansas
and High Plain of Texas. Expected yield per acre increased 2 bushels in both
California and South Dakota, 7 bushels in Missouri. Nebraska only State with
a yield decline from previous month. With exception of Texas, maturity well
ahead of last year and average in 7 major producing States. Harvest well
underway, by October 2 was 41 percent completed in 7 major States compared
with 34 percent previous year.

ALL WHEAT: Combined production of winter, other spring and durum wheat for
1983, 2.41 billion bushels (65.5 million metric tons), down 14 per-
cent from record high set in 1982.

Harvested area, at 61.0 million acres (24.7 million hectares), down 23
percent from last year, unchanged from last month.

Yield expected to average record high 39.5 bushels, 3.9 bushels above
previous record set last year.

DURUM WHEAT: Production 72.3 million bushels (1.97 million metric tons), down
1 percent from last month, 51 percent less than 1982, 61 percent
below record high set in 1981.

Area for harvest, 2.46 million acres (996 thousand hectares) -- smallest
area harvested since 1970 -- unchanged from September 1, down 42 percent from
last year.

Estimated yield of 29.4 bushels per acre, down 5.6 bushels from last year.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production 358 million bushels (9.76 million metric tons),
unchanged from September 1, 35 percent below record high
in 1982.

Area for harvest, 11.3 million acres (4,56 million hectares) -- smallest
since 1972 -- 31 percent less than 1982.

Average yield of 31.8 bushels, unchanged from last month, 2.2 bushels less
than last year. North Dakota's yfeld is off 4.0 bushels from 1982. Record
high yields expected in Idaho, South Dakota and Washington.

RICE: Production forecast at 103 million hundredweight (4.65 million metric
tons), 33 percent below last year, 44 percent below 1981. Nationally,
2.23 million acres (901 thousand hectares) for harvest, compared with 3.25
Ttion acres (1.32 million hectares) for 1982.

The 1983 yield, forecast at 4610 pounds, 132 pounds below last year.
Arkansas yield, improved since last month, now forecast 10 pounds above 1982;
all other States report yields below last year. Texas yield off 200 pounds
from last month due to hurricane Alicia causing some loss and preventing some
acreage from second cutting.

As of October 2, rice harvest reached 59 percent completion, 4 percentage
points behind normal. California rice 90 percent headed and 7 percent
harvested; showers delayed field activity. Arkansas harvest 57 percent
complete, yields reported fair to good. Lousiana harvest 86 percent complete,
8 percentage points behind last year and normal. Texas harvest complete.

SOYBEANS: Production at 1.52 billfon bushels (41.3 million metric tons), down
. 1 percent from last month's forecast, 32 percent Tess than last
year, smallest since 1976. Yield 24.7 bushels, 0.2 of a bushel less than last

month and 7.2 bushels below 1982,

Soybeans continued under drought stress in most areas during September.
Some damage caused by frost and freezing. Leaves dropping on 72 percent of
acreage by October 2, 65 percent year ago. Harvest underway in most States,
20 percent combined, 14 percent last year. Expected yield down from year ago
all North Central States. Yield forecast increased 2.0 bushels from last
month in Indiana, decreased in Iowa, Michigan, Missouri and Nebraska.
Remaining States unchanged from last month. In the South Central States,
Alabama, and Yexas increased 1.0 and 2.0 bushels, respectively, from last
month. Kentucky, Louisiana and Tennessee down 1.0 bushel. Other States
unchanged.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PRODUCTION

: ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

CONN 2 2,670 2,100 1,590 1,693 5,645 4,244 3,555
FLA t 9,300 8,400 2,255 2,250 22,848 20,972 18,900
GA 3 50,000 45,000 2,110 2,100 121,000 105,500 94,500
IND : 8,600 7,500 2,350 1,350 18,800 20,210 10,125
KY } : 239,100 202,400 2,414 1,525 509,576 577,100 308,660
LA 1 : 45

4O 3 27,000 26,000 1,390 1,000 33,000 37,530 26,000
MASS ? 550 400 1,613 1,800 1,970 887 720
MO 2/ t 2,900 2,900 2,050 2,000 6,076 5,945 5,800
NC 2 325,040 281,000 2,156 1,915 795,909 700,689 538,115
OHIO : 14,400 12,000 27213 1,475 22,854 31,860 17,700
PA 2 13,000 12,000 1,991 1,750 27,265 25,885 21,000
sc z 59,000 54,000 2,105 2,050 149,580 124,195 110,700
TENN : 82,610 72,450 2,156 1,540 161,463 178,117 111,573
vA : 61,670 55,600 2,033 1,600 158,797 125,384 89,280
WYA 2/ : 1,900 2,000 1,890 1,900 2,430 3,591 3,800
wis 2 10,100 9,200 1,994 1,915 26,353 20,136 17,618

907,640 793,150

2,183 1,737 2,063,611 1,982,245

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1981 CROP.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUGARBEETS vA

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION
STATE tener een w nee n nn nnn enna ween neni nen ene e eee ee nnn ene eens

1,000 ACRES
ARIZ : 12.8

0.0 300
CALIF : 165.0 24.5 7,254
COLO 2 46.0 18.0 1,733
1DAHO 2 136.0 24.0 3,754
KANS : 9.5 17.0 284
MICH : 96.5 18.0 2,030
MINN : 253.0 18.0 4,403
MONT : 20.0 926
NEBR Fy 20.0 1,889
N MEX 2/ t 0.0 43
N DAK z 17.5 2,695
OHIO 2 8.0 274
ORES : 300
TEX : 575
Wyo z 1,078
us 27,538

1/ RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR
OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED BEETS IN CALIF.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

: AREA HARVESTED
STATE 2

PRODUCTION

t 1,000 ACRES 1,000 TONS
FLA t 373.0 377.0 33.8 32.0 10,019 12,613 12,064
HAW t 94.7 100.0 95.0 96.0 9,081 8,997 9,600
LA : 255.0 265.0 27-6 28.0 7,134 7,030 7,420

36.2 30.8 33.0 1,174 1,130 1,195
778.2 39.2 38.9 27,408 29,770 30,279

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


POTATOES

SEASONAL

: 1,000 ACRES cwT 1,000 CHT
:
WINTER
:
TOTAL Wt 11.0 11.3 206 194 2,198 2,263 2,193
t
SPRING :
TOTAL 2/: 78.0 75.4 266 232 20,765 20,559 «17,479
SUMMER :
:
TOTAL 2/: 97.2 «93.46 225-187 -20,035 21,474 «17,473
FALL
CALIF 18.5 19.0 410 400 6,919 7,585 7,600
coLo > 4510 44,0 285 © -300.-««11,600 12,825 13,200
CONN : 118 1.4 235. 220 486 423 308
IDAHO-10 SW CO: 25.0 25:0 340 335 8,040 8,500 8,375
OTHER CO 31410 307.0 265 «255 76,500 © 83,210 78,285
1ND : 313 311 280 200 615 924 620
MAINE : 106.0 93.0 285 235 «26,520 27,030 «21,855
MASS : 3.5 3u1 210 200 743 735 620
Mich : 3310 33.0 245 © 225 7,050 8,085 7,425
MINN 2 64.0 65.0 180 175 13,300 11,520 11,375
MONT : 74 7:2 260 © 270 15739 13924 13944
NEBR at 7:5 265 260 21252024147 11950
NEV 13.0 12.0 315 330-3, 480 4,095 3,960
f Y-LONG IS 16.5 16.3 270 © 260 51365 4,995 «4,258
-UPSTATE 27.0 24.5 260-2406, 875 7,020 5,880
N DAK 115.0 121.0 150 «170 «=«20,825 «17,250 += -20,570
OHIO : 9:5 9.2 285240 1,890 21328 1,932
OREG-MALHEUR CO : 10.5 9.0 370 370 3,450 3,885 3,330
OTHER CO 42.0 39.5 410 440 18,260 17,220 17,380
PA 23.5 21.5 265 200 «5,250 5,758 45300
RI 30 218 2400-235 332 720 658
$_DAK 10:0 16:0 155145 702 1,350 2,320
UTAH 5.8 4.9 225 250, 1,276 1,305 15225
YT 16 te 215210 154 129 126
WASH 11010 103.0 © 480.« «520 52,920 += 52,800 © 53,560
WIS 64.5 60.0 350 310 18,190 22,575 18,600
WYO 512 513 190 200 13.060 988 1,060
TOTAL 1,087.7 1,053.9 283 278 «295,593 307,526 292,696
us 1,273.9 1,234.0 276 267 338,591 351,822 329,84

1/ 1963 REVISED,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

WINTER POTATOES

PLANTED STED

1983 1/

4983 1/

CALIF 3.8 4.7 3.8 4.7
FLA : 75 6.8 12 6.6
TOTAL

1,000 CHT
CALIF : 245 270 931 1,269
FLA : 185 140 1,332 924
TOTAL : 206 194 2,263 2,193

1/ REVISED
CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS*
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PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS*
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CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983

A-B

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS,

USDA


ALL WHEAT /

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION
: : IND
1981 : 1982 + 1983
: 1,000 ACRES “BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA : 825 470 32,0 34.0 = 24,860 = 26,400 ~—:15, 980
ARIZ : 143 117. 86,8 = 88.1 21,844 12,407 10,310
ARK : 1,760 1,375 39.0 39.0 67,650 = 68,640 53,625
CALIF : 1,125 715 72.6 63.8 107,085 81,625 45,630
coLo t 3,048 3,010 28.7 38.7 87,877 87,504 116,600
DEL : 49 43 42.0 4.0 1,720 2,058 1,763
GA : 1,480 970 33.0 34.0 46,010 48,840 32,980
IDAHO : 1,500 1,275 62.8 68.7 89,780 94,200 87,625
ILL : 1,500 1,350 45.0 48.0 92,500 67,500 64,800
IND : 1,080 970 43.0 51.0 62,100 46,440 49,470
1OWA : 100 50 30.0 38.0 4,875 3,000 1,900
KANS : 13,200 10,800 35.0 42.0 305,000 462,000 453,600
ky 2 675 580 39.0 32.0 28,560 «= 26,325 = 18, 560
LA t 500 250 38.0 29.0 11,550 19,000 7,250
MO 2 136 120 45.0 © 42.0 5,617 6,120 5,040
MICH : 600 700 41.0 «50.0» 41,500 © 2,600 += 35, 0.00
MINN : 3,184 2,208 39.8 36.9 144,025 126,809 81,578
MISS : 1,050 600 38.0 34.0 24,000 39,900 20,400
Mo : 2,230 1,850 34.0 38.0 115,500 75,820 70,300
MONT : 5,360 4,345 34.2 30.9 172,830 183,560 134,120
NEBR : 2,900 2,300 35.0 43.0 104,400 101,500 98,900
NEV : 29 21 65.2 67.6 1,850 ° 1,890 1,420
NJ : 48 35 41.0 “40.0 2,352 1,968 1,400
N MEX : 530 450 25.0 30.0 11,000 13,250 13,500
NY © : 125 150 43.5 44.0 7,040 5,438 6,600
nc : 600 480 36.0 35.0 19,500 21,600 16,800
N DAK : 10,490 7,190 31.5 27.1 331,700 330,785 195,150
OHIO : 1,250 1,150 44,0 52,0 72,600 55,000 59,800
OKLA : 6,900 4,300 33.0 35.0 172,800 227,700 150,500
OREG : 1,200 1,055 53.8 61.5 77,380 64,500 64,935
PA : 228 215 36.0 39.0 9,720 8,208 8,385
sc ‘ 550 400 36.0 «29.0 14,350 19,800 11,600
S_DAK : 3,595 2,677 27.7 32.9 88,970 99,630 88,033
TENN : 935 630 36.0 34,0 37,400 33,660 21,420
TEX t 6,000 4,600 24.0 35.0 183,400 144,000 161,000
UTAH : 266 208 «= 36.0. 38.4 9,575 9,572 7,995
YA t 370 320 38.0 41.0 =—:17,160 = 14,060 =—13,120
WASH : 2,840 2,620 48.9 63.7 168,350 138,880 167,000
W VA : 9 9 36.0 37.0 360 324 333
WIS : 122 128 45.9 46.4 Hats 5,596 5,940
WYO 2 309 233000 27.9341 8,628 7,264
us : 78,841 60,969 35.6 39.5 2, 798, 338 2,808,737 2,407,606

1/ INCLUDES WINTER WHEAT ESTIMATES FROM SEPTEMBER CROP
PRODUCTION REPORT.

HEAT PRODUCTION ay CLASSES, UNITED STATES

t 1,000 BUSHELS
1980 ' 1,181,126 435,347 278,910 311,448 108,395 59,080 2,374,306
1981 + 1,116,652 676,467 310,419 467,726 185,940 41,534 2,798,738
1982 + 1,255,389 609,815 243,042 500,172 147,503 52,816 2,808,737

1983 1/3 1, 187, 936 507,687 281, 220 312,542 72,301 45, 920 2,407, 506

v/ INDICATED OCTOBER 1, 1983.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX

APPLES ceccnacrecrenesesecnar tence nner seen e ser nee bene en eee neneeeeenes

BEANS, DRY EDIBLE .eccevecce cece eee er tener cee e ter tetteeeeeeeteeetee
CITRUS FRUITS ccc eee cece cece eect teeter eee e teens nena teen teens sen esene
CORN FOR GRAIN .eccecccevereeeneveresetereveseseereens

COTTON ....0.
COTTONSEED

FILBERTS cecsccce cee s enn neecesete een eeenece net nee tress ee eernesesases
FLAXSEED cscs cece cece cece tree eee e nent te eee e ener eee teen nese eee eees
GRAPES seeeeccesccvencsseneracsneste rene ren eee reset ene teeta nsesany

HAY, ALFALFA & ALFALFA MIXTURES coc ccecesee eee cer eet ecsceseenesecoer

HAY, OTHER coc ccc ceed ert eee n nent eect teen ante r eet teen ee ester eeeins
HOPS ccvcccccerececsenereeetae teense setae teases se essen eesaeesesstetag

PAPAYAS sesccseceersverrsccnensrreneserorrerr retest rrrerrernrcstenne

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION sessevsaececceveerseescceetersteene
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAPS

PEANUTS FOR NUTS .
PECANS woe
POTATOES .... sae teees
POTATOES, VARIETIES GROWN AND PERCENT HARVESTED wo .ceeeeeeeeeeeveeee
PRUNES AND PLUMS .eessceveececeeesccetenenneeereter sense een ren eennes
RICE weve ceccccrce reece ne see rte eens teense ee neeteeeer teens eens teas
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN .occeceeceecsccerereneseeseneesersneeserteesseeees
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS cccese ccc c ere ee nse tee eee t ter tee tet enter teettneete
SUGARBEETS 2... s sees cece eee ee ee et eet eee nent renee neste nee e eee etge
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED wo cceccesece ccc eec reece tetenssestoes
SUNFLOWER ...cccceeceee cece enter eee react erence nee e nese eet ne sete eeas

SWEETPOTATOES ce ccc cece cece reece ence reece ene n eens seen neeeeeteeene

TOBACCO BY STATES ....ssseveeeee

US SUMMARY .

WHEAT, ALL ..
WHEAT, BY CLASSES seseeescceecereee re ecesceeseeeneenee ene reeeneeaens
WHEAT, DURUM .csceecsevcccreur eserves aneseusserreterateesseeerereees
WHEAT, SPRING .ececssccreeeccree cease net rescuer teense eee eeeene eens

B-16
B11
B-15
B- 1
B- 7
B- 7
B-17
B- 6
B-17
B- 8
8- 9
B-10
B-14
B-18
B-14
A- 8
B- 6
B-18
B-12
B-19
B-17
B- 2
B- 2
B- 5
8-13
B13
B- 6
B-11
B-13
A- 3
B- 3
B- 3
B- 4

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-20 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA

#U.8. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1983-420-929:Sks~1355

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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE POSTAGE ANo Pees Pai
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF Se

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250
Aeon 10h
FIRST CLASS Perr

OFFICIAL BUSINESS:
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300

To stop maving {7} or to change your
address ([} sens this shoot with abet

intact, showing new address, to Crop
Reporting Bosrd Publications, SRS. U.5.
Dept. of Agricutture, Rm 5629 South
Building, 14th & Independence Ave. 8.W.,
Wash, 0.C. 20250.



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ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY

2.60

2.70
2.50
2.00 ~
3.80
3.30
4.20
3.00
2.75
2.40
3.00
4.60
4.00
2.70
3.20
4.30
2.60
3.65

7.70

3.50

3.60
3.90
3.00
2.80

2.50
2.50

2.80
2.40
1.80
3.30
2.90
4.20
2.90
2.90
2.50
3.10
4.30
3.80
2.70
2.50
4.20
2.70
3.60

1,120 1,168
196 144
6,615 6,432
2,310 2,541
57 63

27 27
3,960 3,774
2,609 2,691
1,313 1,463
7,000 6,960
3,600 3,650
720 775
31 24

51 52
221 257
78 at
3,300 3,675
6,400 6,240
1,650 1,736
3,380 3,380
4,960 5,445
746 753
50 54
136 168
1,269 1,300
2,673 2,633
65 88
2,560 3,340
1,449 1,710
1,131 1,221
1,743 1,764
2,407 2,520
7 6
3,555 5,880
288 390
864 828
1,948 1,880
289 297
240 304
1,850 2,107
196 234

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION,

OCTOBER 1983

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS,

USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY , {COWTINMED)
(DOMESTIC UNIT

PRODUCTION

INDICATED

CORN FOR GRAIN BU
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN “
ALL WHEAT

OURUM
OTHER SPRING
RICE

SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 2/ 5
FLAXSEED 73535
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 3,438,330 2,905,700 2,918,100
SUNFLOWER 2/ 5,332,820 3,169,950
ALL COTTON 11,962.6 7,775.5 7,549.5
UPLAND 11,863.9 72694.5 7,465.5
AMER~PIMA 98.7 81.0 84.0
COTTONSEED 4,744 3,123 3,037
ALL HAY " : 152,424 3/145, 564 142,654
ALFALFA . : 90,513 3/84,36) 81,461
ALL OTHER * : 61,911 3761, 203 61,193
ORY EDIBLE BEANS CWT Is: 24,764 15,309 153454
POTATOES : ;
FALL cur: 307,526 292,696
TOTAL . Hy 351,822 329,841
SHEETPOTATOES * 14; 290 10,498 11,127
ToBAcco Ls 1,982,245 1,363,130 1,3783046
SUGARBEETS TON 326 21,282 213189
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED . 29,770 30,451 30,279
HOPS 18 78,558 7y 3642 68147
PASTURE AND RANGE 4/ PCT
APPLES, COM'L 8 8,110,000 3/8,381,000 8,281,500
GRAPES TON 16.2 5,309.4 4,931.4
SWEET CHERRIES 5/ * 155.7 179.7
TART CHARRIES 5/ LB 310,900 156,100
PRUNES AND PLUMS
(EXCL CALIF) TON: 59,5 62.2 58.5
PECANS LB : 215,100 287,000 292,500
FILBERTS TON 18.8 8.5 8.5
CITRUS FRUITS 6/ 2 2982-93 | 1983-84
243950 28,000

1/ YIELD IN POUNDS, 2/ 1982 REVISED. 3/ AUG 1, 1983. 4/ PASTURE AND
RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1972-81 AVERAGE IS 76
PERCENT. 5/ CARRIED FORWARO FROM CHERRY UTILIZATION REPORT RELEASED OCT 4,
1983, 6/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH
THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

INDICATED
1983 1/

CROP AND UNIT

OATS : 616,98) 472,541
BARLEY t 522,387 $31,727
WINTER WHEAT + 2,108,246 1,976,843
RYE " : 20,817 25,698
POTATOES :

WINTER 2/ CWT 2 2,263 2,193

SPRING " 3 20,559 17,479

SUMMER " + 2Y, 8748 17,473
PEACHES LB 3 2,292,600 1,969,800
PEARS TON 805.0 94.1
APRICOTS. . 12.9 104,
NECTARINES (CALIF) ° 173.0 190.0
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) = * 126.0 135
PLUMS (CALIF) ” 170
OLIVES (CALIF) " 66.

ALMONDS (CALIF)
WALNUTS (CALIF)

T/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM “EARLIER FORECAST. 27 1983 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION,’ OCTOBER 1983 Ana CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


The nfne Western States expect 190 million cwt this year, 2 percent below
last year, 3 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest at 576 thousand
acres, down 3 percent from 1982, 1 percent below 1981. Average yield at 330
cwt, up 4 and 11 cwt from 1982 and 1981, respectively. Production in Idaho
forecast at 86.7 million cwt, down 6 percent from last year, 3 percent above
1981. Full potential not reached this year as blight, early frost killed
vines prematurely in southern, eastern counties. Washington growers expect a
crop of 53.6 million cwt, 1? percent larger than past two years despite
substantial cut in acreage. In Oregon, norgold harvest finishing, while
russet harvest in full swing. Frost in Klamath County, central Oregon and
Malheur County in mid-September killed vines and stopped further growth. The
Colorado crop at 13.2 million cwt, 3 percent Targer than last year. Harvest
active, should end in October. California harvest full swing, sizes below
normal; frost killed vines mid-September in Tulelake area.

All potato production in 1983 (four seasonal groups) 330 million cwt,
(15.0 million metric tons), down 6 percent from 1982, 3 percent below 1981.
Area for harvest 1.23 million acres (499 thousand hectares), down 3 percent
from last year, fractionally below 1981. Average yield at 267 cwt per acre,
down 9 cwt from last year's record high, 7 cwt below two years ago.

Revised winter potato production estimate for 1983, 2.19 million cwt (99.5
thousand metric tons), down 3 percent from 1982, virtually the same as two
years ago. Harvested area 11.3 thousand acres (4570 hectares), up 3 percent;
average yield 194 cwt, off 6 percent from 1982.

POTATO PRODUCTION

sie m7

4 i a
ra 1 RY

javarayal

SO

ps

SoS
SESS J

sOCTOMER Forecast

SWEETPOTATOES: Final forecast of 1983 sweetpotato production 11.1 million cwt

(505 thousand metric tons), up 6 percent from September 1, 22
percent below tast year's output. Yield per acre at 114 cwt, 7 cwt above last
month, 15 cwt below last year, Area for harvest 98.0 thousand acres (39.7
thousand hectares), 12 percent less than a year ago.

The yield increase from last month attributed mostly to improved prospects
in California, Georgia and North Carolina. The North Carolina crop forecast at
4.03 million cwt, 30 percent below last year. Harvest in Louisiana 66 percent
complete with production forecast 1.98 million cwt, down 21 percent from a year
ago.

Harvest in California full swing by October 1 with quality fair to good.
Production forecast 1.67 million cwt, off 4 percent from 1982. Production in
Texas, 852 thousand cwt, up 8 percent from last year. Quality excellent but
sizes smaller than anticipated.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: Condition on October 1, 66 percent of normal for 48

contiguous States--15 points below year ago, 10 points
below 1972-81 average. During September, conditions worsened in 23 States,
were unchanged in 6, improved in 19. Beneficial rains fell in many areas east
of Rockies during the month, especially in the Southeast, and the central
Plains. Cooler weather also helped improve pasture and range conditions in
hard hit areas of the midwest. Extreme drought still exists in west Texas,
southeastern Missouri through Tennessee to Kentucky, scattered pockets in
midwest, and southern Pennsylvania.

APPLES: The final forecast of 1983 U.S. apple crop places production at 8.28

billfon pounds (3.76 million metric tons), down 1 percent from August
1 forecast of 8,38 billion pounds (3.80 mitlion metric tons), 2 percent above
last year's production.

Eastern States expect 3.13 billion pounds, down 2 percent from both
August 1 and a year ago. Harvest in full swing in New York. Crop in western
New York good with fair coTor. Eastern New York plagued by adverse weather;
apples not sizing normally, slow ripening, lacking color. Virginia crop slow
coloring because of warm weather. Harvest increased with cooler weather.
Quality generally good, sugar content high.

Prospects, in Central States, 1.19 billion pounds, down 3 percent from
August 1, down 19 percent from 1982. Michigan harvest full swing. Sizing,
color variable. Smaller than usual size but good quality in Ittinofs. Hot,
dry summer following late spring frost, damaged Onio crop. Size lacking,
coloring and maturity slow. Hail damage in northeastern area. Scab problem
throughout State.

Western States production 3.96 billion pounds, virtually the same as
August 1, 15 percent above 1982. Color excellent, size better than last
several years in Washington. Harvest continues. Weather generally favorable
August, September. Harvest active in California. Scab could divert greater
than normal portion to processing in Watsonville, Sabastopo! area. San Joaquin
Valley crop normal. Crop not sizing well in Idaho. Harvest rapid with good
weather in Oregon. Picking of some early varteties and Goldens complete.

GRAPES: Final forecast U.S. grape crop fs 4.93 million tons (4.47 million
“~~ metric tons), 7 percent less than last month's estimate, 25 percent
below last year's record high crop. Prospects in California, at 4.37 million
tons, down 8 percent from last month, 29 percent below last year. California
raisin variety grape forecast at 2.20 million tons, 4 percent Jess than
September 1, 30 percent below 1982 production, Rains on September 30 caused
only minor damage as fresh shipments and raisin harvest were nearly complete
as well as picking of most raisin variety grapes that were to be crushed for
wine. Actual yields and reported utilization have been lower than expected.

California wine variety grape forecast is 1.75 million tons, 12 percent
less than last month, 27 percent below record high crop produced in 1982. Hot,
dry weather first half of September helped reduce mold and rot which resulted
from unseasonable August rains. However, harvest yields lower than antici-
pated, rains during the weekend of September 30 have caused additional damage.
Crop losses unknown at this time, will depend on weather conditions from now
until end of harvest.

California table variety grape forecast is 420 thousand tons, down §
percent from last month, 30 percent less than tast year. Late September rains
have caused some loss to the remaining crop, while fresh pack and winery crush
to date are lower than expected earlier this season.

Michigan grape forecast continues 60.0 thousand tons, 3 percent more than
1982. New York grape forecast 185 thousand tons, 3 percent above last month,
18 percent more than 1982. Forecast in Pennsylvania 57.0 thousand tons, 5
percent below last month, 21 percent above last year. Washington grape
forecast 215 thousand tons, 4 percent below September 1, 27 percent more than
1982 crop. Some frost damage last month has lowered yield prospects.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon,

and Washington is forecast at 58.5 thousand tons (53.1
thousand metric tons). This last forecast of season is down 6 percent from
previous month, 2 percent below last year's crop.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITEO STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

CORN FOR GRAIN Bu 73,152 51,404

82.9

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN " 14,247 10,137 47.5
ALL WHEAT . 78,84) 60,969 39.5

OURUM * 4,217 2,460 29.4

OTHER SPRING " 16,277 11,267 31.

RICE CHT If: 3,252.0 2,226.0 4,610
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 2/ BU : 69,827 61,448 24.7
FLAXSEED " : 835 59 12.6
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 1,275.4 1,330.0 2,194
SUNFLOWER 2/ 4,724 3,058 1,037
ALL COTTON 9,728.5 7,439.4 487

UPLAND 9,658.0 7,374.8 486

AMER-PIMA 70.5 64.6 624
COTTONSEED
ALL HAY 60,679 60,394 2.36

ALFALFA 26,548 25,262 3.22

ALL OTHER 34,131 35,132 1.74
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1,764.4 Ws. 1,387
POTATOES.

FALL 1,087.7 1,053 278
TOTAL 1,273.9 1,234 267
SWEETPOTATOES Vit 98 4
TOBACCO : 907.8 793 1,737
SUGARBEETS : 1,030.8 1,048 20.2

SUGARCANE FOR : .

SUGAR ANO SEEO ” : 759.4 778.2 38.9
HOPS 1B: 39.6 36.9 1,847
PASTURE AND RANGE 4/ = PCT sz 1 66
APPLES, COM'L 1B:

GRAPES TON:

SWEET CHERRIES 5/ " :

TART CHARRIES 5/ iB
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) TON
PECANS Bo:

FILBERTS TON ot .

CITRUS FRUITS 6/ :

Box:
LEMONS "

SEE FOOTNOTES “on PAGE Aud,

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS) |

INDICATED
1983 iv

OATS $8.4 52.2
BARLEY $7.3 53.7
WINTER WHEAT . 36.1 41.8
RYE 29.1 30.0
POTATOES
WINTER 2/ 206 194
SPRING 264 232
SUMMER 221 487
PEACHES
PEARS
APRICOTS

NECTARINES (CALIF)
DRIEO PRUNES (CALIF)

SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE (CONTINUED)

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES: VARIETIES GROWN - 1983

The Crop Reporting Service conducts potato objective yield surveys in 11 major fall producing
States. These 11 States accounted for 92 percent of the 1982 U.S. fall potato production. All produc-
ing areas of each State are represented in the sample in proportion to planted acreage of potatoes.
Variety information in the table below is derived from data reported for farms in the objective yield
sample. These data are intended to provide current information on varieties and are not designated as
official estimates of the Crop Reporting Board.

FALL POTATOES: PERCENT OF MAJOR VARIETIES PLANTED,
SELECTED STATES, 1983 CROP 1/

SECOND FOURTH

:CENTENNIAL RUSSET -7  :RUSSET BURBANK 3.9  : SANGRE :RED MCCLURE 3
IDAHO :RUSSET BURBANK 92.7 :LEMHI RUSSET 2.4 = :NORCHIP :
MAINE :SUPERIOR 24,8 :RUSSET BURBANK 23.3 :ONTARIO sKATAHDIN 13.8
MICH  :RUSSET BURBANK 31.4 :MONONA 12.9 :SEBAGO SONTARIO 9.8
MINN = :RUSSET BURBANK 28.9 :NORCHIP 23.0 :KENNEBEC sNORLAND 9.4
NY :SUPERIOR 30.3 :KATAHDIN 28.6 :NORCHIP : MONONA 6.1
N DAK :NORCHIP 48.2 :KENNEBEC 11.3 :NORLAND sRUSSET BURBANK 9,9
OREG  :RUSSET BURBANK 79.7 :NORGOLD RUSSET 8.4 :EARLY GEM :
PA :KATAHDIN 1.2 :KENNEBEC SUPERIOR 6
WASH — :RUSSET BURBANK 4.40: :
WIS 1 NORLAND

FALL POTATOES - PERCENT HARVESTED TO OCTOBER 1, 1981-1983

ee ee HARVESTED
TO Oct }

COLO 70 48
CONN 30 37
IDAHO 75 69
IND 75 75
MAINE 50 65
MASS 30 40
MICH 75 70
MINN 40 35
MONT 75 65
NEBR 65 65
NEV

NY = LONG ISLAND AVERAGE 42 45

= UPSTATE 52 67 56

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-19 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


COTTON

PRODUCTION v/

CROP
ANO 4ND
STATE 1982 1983
“},000 ACRES POUNDS
UPLAND
ALA 285.0 195.0 175 460 422.0 460.0 187.0
ARIZ 465.0 290.0 1,130 1,092 1,556.0 1,095.0 660.0
ARK 390.0 310.0 657 465 604.0 534.0 300.0
CALIF 1,370.0 965.0 1,077 995 3,535.0 3,073.0 2,000.0
FLA 15.0 9.5 627 621 21.3 19.6 12.3
GA : 158.0 120.0 T14 480 159.0 235.0 120.0
LA 595.0 410.0 102 527 742.0 870.0 450.0
MISS 990.0 750.0 853 595 1,565.0 1,760.0 930.0
Mo 151.0 93.0 648 361 168.0 204.0 70.0
NEV 3/ 7 +0 617 0 1.5 9 :
N MEX 68.0 49.0 551 598 133.0 78.0 61.0
nC 70.0 59.0 699 366 95.0 102.0 45.0
OKLA 450.0 340.0 254 226 440.0 238.0 160.0
sc 95.0 69.0 783 417 164.0 155.0 60.0
TENN 255.0 215.0 638 357 315.0 339.0 160.0
TEX 4,300.0 3,500.0 301 309 5,645.0 2,700.0 2,250.0
VA 3/ 3 3 640 320 3 4 2
us 9,658.0 7,374.8 590 486 15,566.1 11,863.9 7,465.5
AMER=PIMA
ARIZ 41.6 30.8 760 764 53.7 65.9 49.0
N MEX 9.4 11.0 Sit 480 7.9 10.0 11.0
TEX 19.5 22.8 56t 505 18.0 22.8 24.0
us 70.5 64.6 672 624 79.6 98.7 84.0
ALL COTTON
ALA : 285.0 195.0 775 460 422.0 460.0 187.0
ARIZ 506.6 320.8 1,100 1,061 1,609.7 1,160.9 709.0
ARK 390.0 310.0 657 465 604.0 534.0 300.0
CALIF 1,370.0 965.0 1,077 995 3,535.0 3,073.0 2,000.0
FLA 3/ 15.0 9.5 627 621 21.3 19.6 12.3
GA 158.0 120.0 714 480 159.0 235.0 120.0
LA 595.0 410.0 702 527 742.0 870.0 450.0
MISS 990.0 750.0 853 595 1,565.0 1,760.0 930.0
MO 151.0 93.0 648 361 168.0 204.0 70.0
NEV 3/ 7 0 617 0 1.5 9 20
N MEX 17.4 60.0 546 576 140.9 88.0 72.0
NC 70.0 59.0 699 366 95.0 102.0 45.0
OKLA 450.0 340.0 254 226 440.0 238.0 160.0
sc 95.0 69.0 783 aly 164.0 155.0 60.0
TENN 255.0 215.0 638 357 315.0 339.0 160.0
4,319.5 310 5,663. 3 2,722.8 2,274.0
320 4 2

487 15,645, 3 11,962.6 7,549.5
1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED.

2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.

3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

1981, 1982 IND 1983

1, 7000 TONS

6,397 4,744 3,037

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1973-83 (1977 100) '

FOOD SUGAR : COTTON : TOBACCO :OIL CROPS

ALL : FEED
: GRAINS : CROPS :

V + GRAINS

92 91 101 86 95 91 91 87
84 74 96 91 89 82 104 7
93 91 100 108 144 58 4 86
92 96 94 107 112 74 112 74
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
102 108 106 93 101 76 106 105
113 116 108 108 94 102 80 129
101 97 98 121 97 79 93 99
116 121 106 144 107 109 108 114
119 124 110 140 97 83 104 126
87 68 104 116 97 53 72 85

V/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE
GROUPS OF CROPS SHOWN.

The pl UCTION report contains e estimates with
related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Crop Reporting Board which consists of commodity
statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:
W. H. Walther, Chairperson,
G. L. Clampet, Secretary,

APPROVE D: D. W. Barrowman, R. L. Schulte,
L. P. Garrett, B. A. Nelson,
R. P. Small, D. D. Williamson,
R. L. Addison, W. T. Brannen,
J. E. Brewster, J. S. Buche,
bo & Bak. AL R. Budge, T. J. Byram,
KR C.D. James, B. J. Janssen,
D0. C. Johnson, S. A. Kellogg,
HM. McWilliams, 6. A. Nelson,
D. E. Ransom, F. A. Vogel,

L. S. Wiltiams.
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT 1/

2 PRODUCTION 2 PRODUCTION
CROP 2 BOXES TON EQUIVALENT

‘AND UTILIZED
STATE 1981-82 : 1982-83 : 1983-84 : 1981-82 1983-84
1,000 UNITS
ORANGES, EARLY MID:
& NAVEL 3/t
ARIZ : 900 1,050 900 34 39 34
CALIF : 26,500 40,200 27,000 994 1,508 1,012
FLA : 74,000 70,200 94,000 3,330 3,159 4,230
TEX : 3,610 3,590 3,500 153 152 149
105,010 115,040 125,400 4,511 4,858 5,425
ORANGES, VALENCIA
ARIZ : 2,150 2,750 2,300 81 103 86
CALIF : 15,400 33,000 19,000 578 1,238 713
FLA : 51,800 69,300 74,000 2,331 3,118 3,330
TEX : 2,330 2,090 1,800 99 89 17
us : 71,680 107,140 97,100 3,089 4,548 4,206
ALL ORANGES
ARIZ 3,050 3,800 3,200 115 142 120
CALL 44,900 73,200 46,000 4,572 2,746 4,725
FLA 125,800 139,500 168,000 5,661 6,277 7,560
TEX 5,940 5,680 5,300 252 241 226
Us. 176,690 222,180 222,500 7,600 9,406 9,631
TEMPLES
FLA 3,200 4,700 4,500 144 2it 203
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE
SEEDLESS
FLA 27,300 21,800 26, 000 1,160 926 1,105
GRAPEFRUIT, PINK
SEEDLESS
14,800 12,800 14,000 629 544 595
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
6,000 4,800 6,000 255 204 255
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
ARIZ 2,400 2,700 2,200 7 87 70
CALIF
- DESERT 3,400 4,100 4,200 109 131 134
OTHER AREAS 2,600 3,200 87 107
TOTAL 6,000 7,300 196 238
FLA 48,100 39,400 46,000 2,044 1,674 1,955
TEX 13,900 11,200 11,500 556 448 460
us 70,400 60,600 2,873 2,447
TANGERINES
ARIZ 750 880 1,000 28 33 38
CALIF 1,730 2,120 1,900 65 80 nN
FLA 2,500 2,250 2,900 119 107 138
us: 4,980 5,250 5,800 212 220 247
LEMONS
ARIZ 6,300 5,050 239 191 247
CALIF 18,500 19,900 703 756 817
us 24,800 24,950 942 947 1,064
TANGELOS

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST !S COMPLETED.

2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ-75,FLA-90,
TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF
OTHER-67, FLA~85, TEX-80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS &
TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES= CALIF & ARiZ-75, FLA-95.

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA, EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEXAS.

4/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT "OTHER AREAS"
WILL BE AS OF APR 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL OTHER HAY

ALA Fy 650 650 1.90 1.60 1,152 1,235 1,040
ARIZ 1/ t 25 25 2.90 3.10 96 73 78
ARK t 800 750 1.80 1.50 1,610 1,440 1,125
CALIF z 510 530 2.40 2.50 1,236 1,224 1,325
cOLo ? 700 850 1.60 1.70 993 1,120 1,445
CONN 1/ t 66 68 2.10 2.10 138 139 143
Vv 11 17 1.90 1.80 18 21 34

1/ 237 210 2.40 2.40 483 569 504

500 480 2.40 1.90 1,021 1,200 912

320 340 2.10 2.10 493 672 74

440 450 2.10 1.80 892 924 810

430 450 2.40 1.70 943 1,032 765

500 400 2.60 2.00 1,224 1,300 800

1,350 1,500 1.75 1.50 2,470 2,363 2,250

1,380 1,410 1.90 1.80 2,584 2,622 2,538

340 338 2.20 2.10 774 748 710

203 203 1.85 1.85 350 376 376

179 185 2.10 2.20 330 376 407

94 94 2.25 2.20 200 212 207

320 300 2.20 1.80 594 704 540

920 930 2.20 2.30 1,806 2,024 2,139

750 675 2.10 2.00 1,249 1,575 1,350

2,820 2,800 1.70 1.45 5,100 4,794 4,060

1,150 1,250 1.50 1.60 1,428 1,725 2,000

2,150 2,300 1.10 1.20 2,050 2,365 2,760

280 300 1.35 1.35 300 378 405

Tt 70 2.10 2.05 151 349 144

62 75 2.30 2.20 140 143 165

60 70 1.40 1.40 128 84 98

1,325 1,340 2.00 2.00 2,600 2,650 2,680

360 395 1.60 1.40 571 576 553

1,550 1,550 1,45 1.35 2,201 2,248 2,093

850 900 2.20 2.20 2,024 1,870 1,980

1,150 1,550 1.70 1.40 2,176 1,955 2,170

650 690 1.85 2.05 1,143 1,203 1,415

1,160 1,150 2.00 1.90 2,128 2,320 2,185

8 7 1.90 1.90 12 15 13

220 215 2.20 1.60 4i4 484 344

1,900 1,800 1.45 1.40 2,231 2,755 2,520

1,200 1,225 1,50 1.40 1,790 1,800 1,715

> 2,800 2,750 2.10 2.40 6,095 5,880 6,600

125 120 1.90 1.90 238 238 228

350 350 1.90 1.90 684 665 665

915 950 1.50 1.30 1,400 1,373 1,235

340 380 2.30 2.50 692 782 950

540 540 1.20 1.40 621 648 786

750 850 2.70 2.60 1,650 2,025 2,210

620 650 1.35 1.60 B06 837 1,040

34,131 35,132 1.81 1. 74 59,409 61,911 61,193

7 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SUNFLOWER: Production of al] sunflower is forecast at 3.17 billion pounds
a (1.44 million metric tons) down 41 percent from 1982, 29 percent
below 1981. The 1983 area for harvest, at 3.06 million acres (1,24 million
hectares}, down 35 percent from last year. Prospective yield, at 1037 pounds
per acre, down 92 pounds from 1982. Yields forecast at 1250 pounds per acre
in Minnesota, 1000 in North Dakota, 1100 in South Dakota and 1150 pounds in
Texas. In North Dakota, the development of the crop hampered by hot and
mostly dry weather in August and early September. Harvest 14 percent combined
by October 3 compared with 8 percent average.

COTTON: Production forecast, 7.55 million bates, 37 percent below 1982 and 3
percent less than September 1.

Upland production, 7.47 millfon bales, 37 percent Tess than last year and
down 3 percent from September 1, American Pima forecast at 84,0 thousand
bales, 15 percent below 1982, up 4 percent from September 1.

Area for harvest, 7.44 million acres (3.01 million hectares), down 24
percent from last year. Average yield, 487 pounds, 103 pounds below 1982 and
14 pounds less than September 1 forecast.

Southeastern States production forecast, 412 thousand bales, down 57
percent from last year, 6 percent below September 1. Early September rains
Came too jate to significantly benefit crop. Harvest about 15 percent
finished by October 1.

Production in Delta States, 1.91 million bales, down 48 percent from 1982
and 5 percent less than September 1. Mid-September rains too late to improve
yields, Favorable harvesting weather prevailed. Harvest in full swing by
October ? with about 15 percent picked.

Texas and Oklahoma upland production, 2.41 million bales, down 18 percent
from 1982 and 4 percent below last month. Harvest progressed slowly--15
percent finished by October 1. Defoliation active on Low Plains. Freezing
temperatures on September 2) damaged cotton on northern High Plains. Some low
yielding acreage abandoned in Oklahoma.

Western States upland growers expect to harvest 2,72 million bales, 36
percent less than last year, unchanged from September 1. Defoliation
interrupted by rains last week of September in San Joaquin Valley. Harvest
beginning. Extensive crop damage and some loss of acreage from flooding in
Arizona first week of October. Damage heaviest in Graham, Pima and Pinal
Counties. This report based on production prospects as of October 1. Effects
of early October damage will be reflected in November forecast.

Bureau of Census reports 769,632 running bales ginned prior to October 1,
Compared with 1,529,044 ginned to same date last year and 1,724,646 bales in
y98l.

U.S. COTTON PRODUCTION

191-1980
rULtOm BALES

TE pen ne _
e

” % ” n
‘*OCTOBER FORECAST wR

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 R-T3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


TOBACCO: All tobacco production forecast at 1.38 billion pounds (625 thousand

metric tons), -- smallest crop since 194] ~~ 30 percent below 1982,
1 percent above last month's forecast. Production decline from 1982 caused by
reduction in acreage and drought reduced yields. Yields prospects up from
September 1 in 9 of the 16 estimating States. Average yield at 1737 pounds
per acre, 446 pounds below 1982, 28 pounds above last month's forecast.

Kentucky's production estimated at 309 million pounds, 47 percent below
1982, 2 percent above September 1. Harvest nearing completion. Condition of
hung crop varies from good to poor, with little houseburn reported. Stripping
expected to start early October.

North Carolina production expected to total 538 million pounds, 23 percent
less than 1982, fractionally below last month.. Yield per acre forecast at
1915 pounds, 241 pounds below last year, 25 pounds above September 1
forecast. Acreage down 5000 acres from last month. Flue-cured harvest
virtually complete, slightly behind normal.

Tennessee growers plan to harvest 112 million pounds, 37 percent below
1982, unchanged from last month. Yields expected to average 1540 pounds per
acre, 616 pounds below last you. Harvest was nearly complete by October 1.
Ory weather most of September aided harvest and curing.

SUGARBEETS: Production of sugarbeets forecast at 21.2 million tons (19.2

million metric tons), fractionally lower than both September 1
forecast and 1982 crop. Killing frost lowered expected tonnage in Colorado,
Nebraska, Wyoming. Michigan's crop did not size as well as expected. U.S.
yleld of 20.2 tons per acre expected, 0.1 ton betow last month and down 0.4
ton from 1982. Area for harvest at 1.05 million acres (424 thousand
hectares), up 2 percent from year earlier.

Minnesota outlook improved slightly. Only processing until October 1 was
fresh beets as weather too warm to stock pile. Rain delayed harvest in
California's northern districts. Southern San Joaquin Valley harvest complete
with good yields. Rain delayed fall planting in Imperial Valley. Early
planted fields good, some later fields replanted.

Lifting in North Dakota reached 17 percent on October 2, same as last
year, ahead of 11 percent average. In Michigan, insufficient moisture
prevented crop from reaching full potential. Harvest has started, stock
piling will begin when temperatures permit. Killing frost stopped growth of
Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska crops.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at a record

high 30.3 miltion tons (27.5 million metric tons), 1 percent below
September 1 forecast, up 2 percent from a year ago. Decline from last month
reflects lower yield outlook in Hawaii, Texas. National average yield, at
38.9 tons per acre, is 0.3 ton below 1982. Record production reflects 2
percent acreage increase.

Florida crop progressed well during September. Cutting for seed increased
during month. Harvest for sugar expected to begin late October with al? mills
grinding by early November. Crop had good weather all season with no freeze
last winter, no storms so far this fall.

Hawaii harvest progress good during September. Weather favorable for both
harvest, crop development. Rain beneficial in non-irrigated areas.

Louisiana planting 64 percent complete on October 1 compared with 66 last
year. Crop in good condition.

Texas sugarcane developing well. Rain received in July, September. Yield
outlook below earlter forecast but excellent crop still expected.

HOPS: Production estimate at 68.1 million pounds (30.9 thousand metric tons),
down 5 percent from September 1, 13 percent from 1982,

Yield prospects decreased all States except Idaho. Average estimated
yield 1847 pounds per acre, 1984 pounds in 1982. The 36.9 thousand acres
(14.9 thousand hectares) for harvest, 1 percent below last month, 7 percent
below last year.

Harvest almost complete by October 1. Yields lowered by adverse summer
weather,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1983 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA