Cr Pr 2-2 (12-00)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released December 12, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For

information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Cotton Production Down Slightly from November

All Orange Production Down 4 Percent from October

All cotton production is forecast at 17.4 million 480-pound bales, down less than 1 percent from last month, but

up 3 percent from 1999. Yield is expected to average 619 pounds per harvested acre, down 3 pounds from last

month. Survey and ginnings data indicate a 200,000 bale decrease in Texas production from the November

forecast, which more than offset a 150,000 bale increase in California. On November 26, U.S. harvest was

85 percent complete, the same pace as both last year and the 5-year average.

The U.S. all orange December 1 forecast of the 2000-01 crop is 12.6 million tons, down 4 percent from both

October and last season’s final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 229 million boxes (10.3 million tons),

5 percent below the October forecast and 2 percent less than the 1999-2000 crop year. The weather since the

beginning of October has been drier than normal. Constant irrigation was needed to maintain good tree condition. 

Water reservoirs are at very low levels. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 127 million boxes

(5.72 million tons), a 6 percent decrease from October. If realized, this production will be 5 percent lower than

the previous season. Fruit size is considerably smaller than originally projected and may end up as the smallest in

the last ten years. A near record low fruit drop is projected, which will partially offset the smaller fruit size. 

Florida’s Valencia forecast, at 102 million boxes (4.59 million tons), is down 3 percent from October, but is

3 percent higher than last season’s final utilization. The Valencias also have smaller fruit size and a low drop rate. 

Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the October forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is unchanged at 1.55 gallons per box at

42.0 degrees Brix. This is virtually the same as last season’s yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors

Association. Projected juice yield for 2000-01 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the

January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be

similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on December 12, 2000.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

August Schumacher, Jr.

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Beans, Dry Edible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Coffee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Tobacco, Burley ............................................................................5

Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 4 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 1999 and Forecasted December 1, 2000

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1999 2000 1999

2000

1999 2000

Nov 1 Dec 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

561.0

269.0

960.0

605.0

1,300.0

610.0

1,180.0

377.0

79.0

825.0

150.0

315.0

565.0

5,100.0

108.0

134.0

13,138.0

8.9

239.0

7.0

32.0

286.9

561.0

277.9

960.0

844.0

1,300.0

610.0

1,180.0

377.0

86.0

825.0

150.0

315.0

565.0

5,132.0

108.0

134.0

13,424.9

540.0

279.0

950.0

765.0

1,300.0

700.0

1,280.0

400.0

85.0

930.0

200.0

290.0

570.0

4,800.0

109.0

129.0

13,327.0

6.0

144.0

6.0

16.0

172.0

540.0

285.0

950.0

909.0

1,300.0

700.0

1,280.0

400.0

91.0

930.0

200.0

290.0

570.0

4,816.0

109.0

129.0

13,499.0

535

1,278

714

1,254

579

709

704

601

662

475

461

428

505

475

635

487

595

879

1,210

734

669

1,128

535

1,265

714

1,241

579

709

704

601

668

475

461

428

505

477

635

487

607

489

1,273

738

1,286

594

638

656

660

734

748

444

604

606

430

722

428

615

824

1,233

680

810

1,160

489

1,264

738

1,278

594

638

656

660

731

748

444

604

606

431

722

428

622

489

1,273

743

1,380

594

627

649

648

734

748

420

629

606

410

722

428

612

824

1,200

680

930

1,144

489

1,264

743

1,352

594

627

649

648

731

748

420

629

606

412

722

428

619

625.0

716.0

1,428.0

1,580.0

1,567.0

901.0

1,731.0

472.0

109.0

816.0

144.0

281.0

595.0

5,050.0

142.8

135.9

16,293.7

16.3

602.7

10.7

44.6

674.3

625.0

732.3

1,428.0

2,182.7

1,567.0

901.0

1,731.0

472.0

119.7

816.0

144.0

281.0

595.0

5,094.6

142.8

135.9

16,968.0

550.0

740.0

1,470.0

2,200.0

1,610.0

915.0

1,730.0

540.0

130.0

1,450.0

175.0

380.0

720.0

4,100.0

164.0

115.0

16,989.0

10.3

360.0

8.5

31.0

409.8

550.0

750.3

1,470.0

2,560.0

1,610.0

915.0

1,730.0

540.0

138.5

1,450.0

175.0

380.0

720.0

4,131.0

164.0

115.0

17,398.8 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3 Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level forecasts will be published in the "January Crop Production" report.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 5 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

1998-1999 and Forecasted December 1, 2000

State

Production

1998 1999 2000 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 5,365.4 6,353.5 6,512.2

 1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Burley Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State,

and United States, 1998-1999 and Forecasted December 1, 2000

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1999 2000 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Type 31

 IN

 KY

 MO 1

 NC

 OH

 TN

 VA

 WV 1

 US

6,500

210,000

2,300

7,800

9,800

55,000

10,600

1,600

303,600

3,800

125,000

1,400

7,800

7,500

45,000

9,000

1,500

201,000

1,800

1,810

2,015

1,600

1,740

1,890

2,180

1,350

1,829

2,100

2,100

2,180

1,650

1,790

2,000

2,000

1,600

2,041

17,000

416,025

5,751

11,745

17,934

91,545

20,176

2,160

582,336

11,700

380,100

4,635

12,480

17,052

103,950

23,108

2,160

555,185

7,980

262,500

3,052

12,870

13,425

90,000

18,000

2,400

410,227 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1999-2000

Month

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested 1999 2000

1999 2000 1999 2000

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oct

Nov

3,225

3,205

2,710

2,720

1,620

1,605

1,580

1,585

3,520

3,565

4,210

4,380
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 6 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1998-1999, 1999-2000 and Forecasted December 1, 2000 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 Other 5

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus

 FL

550

21,000

112,000

1,250

134,800

600

15,000

74,000

180

89,780

1,150

36,000

186,000

1,430

224,580

1,800

17,800

28,700

550

750

7,300

47,050

6,100

61,200

950

1,500

4,950

7,400

3,450

16,200

19,650

2,550

80

600

40,000

134,000

1,540

176,140

500

27,000

99,000

200

126,700

1,100

67,000

233,000

1,740

302,840

1,950

20,900

31,900

600

500

7,000

53,400

5,930

66,830

850

2,300

7,000

10,150

3,100

19,600

22,700

2,200

110

550

34,000

127,000

1,800

163,350

500

25,000

102,000

200

127,700

1,050

59,000

229,000

2,000

291,050

1,800

20,000

30,000

600

7,200

50,000

6,500

64,300

850

2,000

6,300

9,150

3,600

21,000

24,600

2,100

60

21

787

5,040

53

5,901

22

563

3,330

8

3,923

43

1,350

8,370

61

9,824

81

757

1,220

23

25

244

2,000

244

2,513

36

56

235

327

131

616

747

115

4

22

1,500

6,030

66

7,618

19

1,013

4,455

8

5,495

41

2,513

10,485

74

13,113

88

888

1,356

25

17

235

2,269

237

2,758

32

86

333

451

118

745

863

99

5

21

1,275

5,715

77

7,088

19

938

4,590

8

5,555

40

2,213

10,305

85

12,643

81

850

1,275

20

241

2,125

260

2,646

32

75

299

406

137

798

935

95

3 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2

 Net lbs. per

box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3

 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason

varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4

 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5 Seedy

(Duncan) grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-00 crop. Included with White Seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 

6

 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 7 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 1998-2000 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM 2

NY

ND

OR

SD 3

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

110.0

170.0

105.0

20.0

300.0

190.0

16.6

195.0

10.5

31.0

750.0

8.7

15.0

6.0

40.0

7.3

39.0

2,014.1

135.0

155.0

105.0

22.0

350.0

205.0

26.5

210.0

1.0

31.0

630.0

11.5

50.0

6.7

36.0

8.3

40.0

2,023.0

115.0

120.0

90.0

18.0

285.0

165.0

40.0

165.0

25.0

610.0

12.0

11.0

18.0

5.4

32.0

8.3

38.0

1,757.7

105.0

155.0

103.0

19.0

295.0

175.0

16.0

188.0

9.5

30.0

710.0

8.6

13.5

5.9

40.0

7.2

37.0

1,917.7

132.0

145.0

103.0

20.9

350.0

165.0

25.5

187.0

1.0

30.2

570.0

10.8

47.0

6.6

36.0

8.0

39.0

1,877.0

112.0

110.0

88.0

16.0

275.0

150.0

36.5

156.0

24.5

525.0

11.7

10.8

15.5

3.0

32.0

8.1

36.0

1,610.1

Yield per Acre Production

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM 2

NY

ND

OR

SD 3

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

1,480

1,850

2,050

2,000

1,500

1,450

2,190

1,950

1,800

1,420

1,380

1,770

1,000

510

2,230

1,600

2,180

1,586

1,860

1,900

2,050

1,850

2,100

1,550

1,730

2,000

1,800

1,370

1,450

1,610

1,490

800

2,080

1,550

2,020

1,763

1,800

1,800

1,950

1,810

1,500

1,600

1,650

2,070

1,460

1,450

1,800

2,090

950

330

2,000

1,800

1,980

1,641

1,554

2,868

2,112

380

4,425

2,538

350

3,666

171

426

9,798

152

135

30

890

115

808

30,418

2,455

2,755

2,112

387

7,350

2,558

441

3,740

18

414

8,265

174

701

53

750

124

788

33,085

2,016

1,980

1,716

289

4,125

2,400

604

3,230

358

7,613

211

226

148

10

640

146

712

26,424 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2 Estimates discontinued in 2000. 3 Estimates began in 2000.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 8 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Large Lima

 CA

Baby Lima

 CA

Navy

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NM 1

 ND

 OR

 SD 2

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 CO

 ID

 MN

 NE

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

26.0

13.0

0.6

1.5

75.0

51.0

5.0

2.0

120.0

0.4

255.5

0.2

7.5

2.5

97.0

6.0

113.2

1.5

0.3

1.0

2.8

25.0

27.0

5.1

150.0

80.0

7.0

195.0

1.2

2.0

440.3

6.6

2.8

115.0

1.1

8.0

133.5

2.9

0.6

1.8

5.3

20.5

24.5

7.3

125.0

66.0

4.0

138.0

0.7

3.2

2.0

346.2

7.2

2.6

104.5

6.5

1.1

7.0

128.9

1.4

0.6

0.9

2.9

25.0

12.0

0.6

1.5

74.0

46.0

4.8

2.0

114.0

0.4

243.3

0.2

7.4

2.2

93.2

5.5

108.5

1.4

0.3

1.0

2.7

24.0

26.0

5.0

150.0

64.0

6.2

175.0

1.2

1.9

403.3

6.5

2.5

104.0

1.1

7.7

121.8

2.9

0.6

1.8

5.3

19.5

23.5

7.1

120.0

60.0

3.5

111.0

0.6

3.1

1.9

307.2

7.0

2.3

100.0

5.5

1.1

6.2

122.1

1.4

0.6

0.9

2.9

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 9 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre Production

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Large Lima

 CA

Baby Lima

 CA

Navy

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NM 1

 ND

 OR

 SD 2

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 CO

 ID

 MN

 NE

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

1,250

1,700

1,500

2,330

1,600

1,620

2,130

2,000

1,550

2,250

1,598

1,500

2,140

1,360

1,990

2,310

2,003

2,210

2,330

2,200

2,222

1,800

2,380

2,160

2,300

1,560

1,950

1,460

1,920

2,050

1,809

2,110

1,600

2,030

2,450

2,000

2,027

2,100

2,000

2,170

2,113

2,210

2,180

2,250

1,500

1,650

2,200

1,460

1,170

2,480

2,110

1,553

2,090

1,520

2,040

1,510

2,180

1,940

2,005

2,070

2,670

2,110

2,207

312

204

9

35

1,180

745

102

40

1,767

9

3,887

3

158

30

1,855

127

2,173

31

7

22

60

433

620

108

3,450

998

121

2,555

23

39

7,294

137

40

2,111

27

154

2,469

61

12

39

112

430

513

160

1,800

990

77

1,620

7

77

40

4,771

146

35

2,040

83

24

120

2,448

29

16

19

64 1 Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2 Estimates began in 2000.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 10 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Pinto

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM 1

 ND

 OR

 SD 2

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

152.0

44.2

18.5

21.0

55.0

12.2

76.0

5.5

540.0

2.2

0.5

6.0

16.0

28.0

977.1

9.5

10.0

1.6

14.0

11.0

13.0

16.0

0.9

76.0

5.5

0.9

9.0

34.0

2.0

5.5

7.3

64.2

5.5

17.6

13.0

13.0

6.0

55.1

125.0

31.2

16.5

9.0

38.0

13.9

60.0

1.0

363.0

2.4

1.5

6.7

9.0

28.0

705.2

8.0

15.0

0.8

17.0

11.0

19.0

17.7

2.0

90.5

3.5

1.1

9.0

38.0

2.0

5.0

8.3

66.9

2.0

19.2

14.0

11.0

4.5

50.7

100.0

29.2

17.3

21.0

39.0

14.5

39.0

411.0

2.5

2.3

1.0

5.4

10.5

28.0

720.7

11.0

12.0

1.6

19.0

10.0

13.0

15.0

1.4

83.0

6.0

1.1

12.0

32.0

1.9

4.0

8.3

65.3

0.7

3.2

6.0

4.0

4.2

18.1

138.0

43.5

17.7

20.0

52.0

12.0

73.7

4.5

510.0

2.2

0.5

5.9

16.0

27.0

923.0

8.5

9.4

1.6

13.0

10.5

12.6

15.5

0.9

72.0

5.5

0.9

9.0

32.0

2.0

5.2

7.2

61.8

5.5

17.2

12.2

12.6

6.0

53.5

118.5

30.6

15.8

9.0

24.0

13.2

54.0

1.0

332.0

2.3

1.4

6.6

9.0

27.5

644.9

8.0

12.5

0.8

17.0

10.5

14.8

17.5

2.0

83.1

3.5

1.1

9.0

36.0

2.0

4.7

8.0

64.3

2.0

18.7

10.2

10.0

4.5

45.4

92.0

28.4

15.5

20.0

34.0

13.7

36.0

363.0

2.4

2.3

1.0

3.0

10.5

27.0

648.8

11.0

11.0

1.6

19.0

9.6

12.3

14.6

1.4

80.5

6.0

1.1

12.0

30.0

1.8

3.5

8.1

62.5

0.7

3.2

5.8

3.5

4.2

17.4

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 11 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre Production

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Pinto

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM 1

 ND

 OR

 SD 2

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

1,900

2,100

2,000

1,470

1,400

2,200

1,880

2,040

1,340

1,910

600

510

2,380

2,140

1,572

1,380

1,810

2,000

1,310

1,570

2,000

1,350

2,110

1,575

850

2,220

1,000

1,410

1,600

1,690

1,600

1,362

1,070

2,170

1,210

1,500

2,500

1,718

1,890

2,170

1,850

1,890

1,430

2,240

2,030

1,800

1,460

1,520

860

800

2,300

2,030

1,681

1,510

1,760

2,130

1,800

1,700

1,790

1,290

2,150

1,655

1,310

2,000

1,700

1,660

1,350

1,510

1,550

1,617

1,150

2,200

1,400

1,450

2,040

1,795

1,820

2,270

1,800

1,450

1,450

2,270

2,080

1,460

2,420

2,480

800

330

2,300

1,980

1,641

1,230

1,750

1,690

1,500

1,850

2,200

1,430

1,860

1,645

1,170

1,910

1,520

1,700

1,280

1,430

1,800

1,603

1,140

2,160

1,470

1,570

2,480

1,845

2,617

914

354

293

726

264

1,386

92

6,832

42

3

30

380

578

14,511

117

170

32

170

165

252

209

19

1,134

47

20

90

450

32

88

115

842

59

373

148

189

150

919

2,235

664

292

170

343

296

1,096

18

4,860

35

12

53

207

558

10,839

121

220

17

306

178

265

225

43

1,375

46

22

153

597

27

71

124

1,040

23

412

143

145

92

815

1,675

644

279

290

494

311

749

5,294

58

57

8

10

242

535

10,646

135

193

27

285

178

271

209

26

1,324

70

21

182

510

23

50

146

1,002

8

69

85

55

104

321 1 Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2 Estimates began in 2000.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 12 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 Total

Black

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Garbanzo

 CA

 ID

 MT

 ND

 OR

 SD 2

 WA

 Total

Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM 1

 NY

 ND

 OR

 SD 2

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

13.1

11.0

8.0

32.1

2.5

0.9

27.0

3.0

33.4

2.5

0.7

5.0

135.0

15.0

3.0

10.5

63.0

2.2

3.0

239.9

33.0

5.5

38.5

5.0

10.6

4.0

3.9

5.0

28.5

7.5

6.5

0.6

1.5

8.0

5.5

0.4

1.0

3.0

2.5

8.5

1.9

9.0

0.9

2.0

58.8

19.6

15.0

8.0

42.6

2.5

1.3

31.0

2.6

37.4

1.0

1.2

4.8

108.0

10.6

7.0

9.5

41.0

3.2

186.3

39.5

33.0

72.5

16.5

11.8

12.1

10.0

2.7

5.4

58.5

10.0

13.8

0.6

5.5

11.0

8.0

0.5

2.0

1.8

5.0

4.6

15.5

1.0

2.0

81.3

7.2

8.0

2.2

17.4

3.5

1.3

26.0

0.8

31.6

1.0

1.1

55.0

4.9

0.8

5.2

25.0

1.2

94.2

15.3

6.5

21.8

24.5

28.6

25.0

15.0

5.8

4.0

9.5

112.4

8.0

8.0

0.8

0.7

19.0

3.7

0.5

3.7

2.9

6.5

2.4

1.5

10.5

1.0

1.0

70.2

12.8

11.0

8.0

31.8

2.5

0.9

26.0

2.7

32.1

2.5

0.5

4.9

134.0

12.6

2.8

10.0

60.0

2.2

2.8

232.3

31.0

4.9

35.9

5.0

10.3

3.8

3.9

5.0

28.0

7.5

6.3

0.6

1.3

8.0

4.8

0.2

0.9

3.0

2.5

8.2

1.8

8.1

0.9

1.7

55.8

19.1

15.0

8.0

42.1

2.5

1.2

31.0

2.4

37.1

1.0

1.0

4.8

108.0

9.8

6.4

9.0

37.0

3.2

180.2

38.5

31.0

69.5

16.5

11.7

11.8

8.0

2.4

5.4

55.8

10.0

13.0

0.6

5.1

11.0

5.6

0.5

1.6

1.7

3.3

4.3

14.6

1.0

1.9

74.2

7.0

8.0

2.2

17.2

3.5

1.3

25.0

0.5

30.3

1.0

1.1

53.0

4.3

0.8

5.2

22.0

1.2

88.6

15.3

5.1

20.4

23.5

28.0

22.5

11.0

5.8

3.9

9.5

104.2

8.0

7.0

0.8

0.5

18.0

3.5

0.3

3.4

2.9

5.5

2.3

1.5

9.4

1.0

0.9

65.0

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 13 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre Production

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 Total

Black

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Garbanzo

 CA

 ID

 MT

 ND

 OR

 SD 2

 WA

 Total

Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM 1

 NY

 ND

 OR

 SD 2

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

2,150

1,820

2,310

2,075

1,400

2,000

1,100

1,630

1,190

1,400

1,800

2,180

1,570

1,370

2,000

1,470

1,360

2,500

2,390

1,534

1,840

1,690

1,819

1,600

1,320

2,210

1,510

1,180

1,493

1,270

950

2,170

2,000

1,340

1,210

1,000

1,670

1,300

1,520

1,290

1,940

600

2,220

2,120

1,253

2,120

2,070

2,310

2,138

960

1,920

1,600

1,420

1,555

1,000

2,000

2,150

2,090

1,530

1,800

1,570

1,340

2,380

1,871

2,010

1,700

1,873

1,730

1,260

1,130

1,100

920

1,110

1,317

1,180

2,150

2,170

1,860

1,860

1,340

2,400

2,000

1,240

1,520

1,910

1,110

2,100

1,950

1,621

2,100

1,410

2,410

1,820

1,140

1,770

1,520

1,400

1,485

1,000

2,180

1,580

1,330

2,250

1,500

1,280

2,670

1,514

2,090

900

1,794

1,490

1,460

1,290

1,320

1,330

1,670

1,240

1,396

1,750

1,600

2,000

2,000

1,310

1,260

1,000

2,210

1,660

1,530

2,300

1,800

1,000

2,200

1,890

1,508

275

200

185

660

35

18

285

44

382

35

9

107

2,100

172

56

147

816

55

67

3,564

570

83

653

80

136

84

59

59

418

95

60

13

26

107

58

2

15

39

38

106

35

49

20

36

699

405

310

185

900

24

23

496

34

577

10

20

103

2,260

150

115

141

496

76

3,371

775

527

1,302

285

147

133

88

22

60

735

118

280

13

95

205

75

12

32

21

50

82

162

21

37

1,203

147

113

53

313

40

23

380

7

450

10

24

840

57

18

78

282

32

1,341

320

46

366

350

410

290

145

77

65

118

1,455

140

112

16

10

235

44

3

75

48

84

53

27

94

22

17

980 1 Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2 Estimates began in 2000.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 14 NASS, USDA

Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1998-1999 and Forecasted December 1, 2000

Crop and State

Utilized Production

1998 1999 2000

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

Native & Seedling

 AL

 AR 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS 2

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

All Pecans

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

3,500

13,000

300

1,700

200

35,000

3,000

800

32,000

1,500

200

800

20,000

112,000

1,500

250

1,100

5,000

50

13,000

400

1,000

1,800

300

10,000

34,400

5,000

13,000

550

1,700

1,300

40,000

50

16,000

1,200

32,000

2,500

2,000

1,100

30,000

146,400

7,000

22,800

1,500

1,900

1,100

85,000

4,000

3,500

52,000

800

3,000

1,800

35,000

219,400

6,000

2,300

2,600

35,000

5,000

18,000

1,500

400

60,000

900

55,000

186,700

13,000

22,800

3,800

1,900

3,700

120,000

5,000

22,000

5,000

52,000

1,200

63,000

2,700

90,000

406,100

11,000

16,000

900

2,300

800

70,000

3,000

1,000

35,000

1,800

500

1,700

22,000

166,000

4,000

400

1,700

10,000

400

14,000

500

1,000

2,500

800

8,000

43,300

15,000

16,000

1,300

2,300

2,500

80,000

400

17,000

1,500

35,000

2,800

3,000

2,500

30,000

209,300 1 Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 15 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 1998-2000

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

1999 2000 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

443.0

35.4

435.0

28.0

941.4

17.0

1.9

30.0

3.0

51.9

460.0

37.3

465.0

31.0

993.3

438.0

32.6

455.0

46.0

971.6

17.0

2.8

35.0

0.6

55.4

455.0

35.4

490.0

46.6

1,027.0

35.0

81.7

32.7

34.1

35.7

35.0

35.8

32.7

26.0

33.2

35.0

79.4

32.7

33.3

35.5

36.0

80.7

31.0

37.7

35.2

39.0

34.0

31.0

25.0

33.5

36.1

77.0

31.0

37.5

35.1

17,083

2,727

11,880

1,053

32,743

842

71

1,040

11

1,964

17,925

2,798

12,920

1,064

34,707

15,505

2,892

14,225

955

33,577

595

68

981

78

1,722

16,100

2,960

15,206

1,033

35,299

15,768

2,631

14,105

1,734

34,238

663

95

1,085

15

1,858

16,431

2,726

15,190

1,749

36,096 1 Net tons.

Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

Hawaii 1998-2000

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

Acres Acres Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

HI 6,100 6,400 6,800 1,560 1,560 1,340 9,500 10,000 9,100

 1 Parchment basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 16 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 17 NASS, USDA

November Weather Summary

Heavy rain in the South eased or eradicated long-term drought and benefited pastures and winter grains, but

slowed fieldwork. On the southern Plains, cool weather and soaking early-month rains hampered winter wheat

planting and emergence, and cotton and soybean harvesting. Although drier weather after mid-month allowed

fieldwork to gradually resume on the southern High Plains, rain shifted eastward, drenching areas from eastern

Texas to the Carolinas. However, most of Florida’s peninsula remained unfavorably dry, increasing irrigation

requirements. Farther north, occasional, generally light precipitation provided only limited relief from a 2-month

dry spell from the Mid-Atlantic region westward into the middle Ohio Valley. Precipitation was also below

normal in much of California and the Northwest, despite a late-month increase in storm activity.

Between a brief, early-month warm spell and a late-month warming trend, the Nation experienced a very cold

November. The coldest conditions shifted from the West early in the month to nearly nationwide by

mid-November. As a result, monthly temperatures averaged as much as 15 degrees F below normal in the

northern Plains and northern Rockies and generally 3 to 7 degrees F below normal in California and the

Northwest. As cold weather settled in, a series of storm systems provided extensive snow cover from the

Southwest to the northern half of the Plains, insulating winter wheat from extreme cold in the latter region. 

Sub-zero temperatures were primarily confined to areas with a blanket of snow, while sub-freezing readings edged

into areas as far south as southern California and along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to northern Florida. Direct

impacts from the cold were relatively minor; however, and temperatures remained well above the freezing mark in

Florida’s citrus belt.

November Agricultural Summary

The harvest season ended ahead of normal in the Corn Belt, aided by mostly dry weather. In the southern Great

Plains, rain delayed winter wheat seeding, but boosted moisture supplies and assisted emergence. In the central

and northern Great Plains, rain and snow increased top soil moisture, but cold weather limited winter wheat

emergence. On the Atlantic Coastal Plains, dry weather aided row crop harvest and winter grain seeding early in

the month, while rain reduced moisture shortages and stimulated winter grain emergence after mid-month. 

Fieldwork continued with few interruptions in California and Florida. Some crops remained unharvested in the

mid-Atlantic States and Northeast.

Winter wheat seeding slowly progressed, as a variety of winter storms frequently halted fieldwork. Wet weather

limited planting progress in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas early in the month, but planting continued with

few delays on the High Plains. In Oklahoma, just two-thirds of the crop was seeded on November 12, compared

with 97 percent normally planted by that date. Seeding slowly accelerated in the southern Great Plains after

mid-month, as wet soils gradually dried enough to support machinery. In the Corn Belt, where rain delays were

shorter and less frequent, winter wheat seeding was nearly complete by mid-month. Seeding accelerated on the

Atlantic Coastal Plains early in the month and rapidly progressed through the remainder of the month. In North

Carolina, planting progressed from 41 percent complete on November 5, to 80 percent complete on November 26. 

Mostly dry weather aided planting in California, where seeding advanced well ahead of the 5-year average until

mid-month. In Arkansas, the seeding pace was ahead of the 5-year average when the month began and remained

ahead of normal until late in the month, despite occasional rain delays.

Below normal temperatures hindered emergence and growth of winter grains most of the month. A few fields

emerged in the northern Great Plains before mid-month, but frigid temperatures virtually halted emergence after

mid-month. In the central Great Plains and Corn Belt, brief periods of warm weather and adequate moisture

supplies aided germination and emergence. Frequent rains, some heavy, erased moisture shortages and promoted

germination and growth in the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent parts of the southern Great plains and

Southeast. Soil moisture shortages hindered germination, emergence, and growth of winter grains on the Atlantic

Coastal Plains until soaking rains eased dryness after mid-month. In California and the Pacific Northwest, the

cold weather suppressed growth of winter grains, but moisture supplies were mostly adequate to support

development. 

The Nation’s corn harvest neared completion more than 1 week ahead of normal, with 95 percent of the crop out

of the fields by November 12. However, harvest slipped slightly behind last year’s fast pace, as increasing storage

shortages and occasional rain delays limited progress. Harvest remained active in the Great Lakes region and

eastern Corn Belt during the first half of the month. In Michigan, growers harvested more than one-third of their

crop during the first 2 weeks of the month. Harvest advanced ahead of normal in Ohio and Wisconsin, where

growers harvested 10 and 12 percent of their crop, respectively, during the week ending November 12. Harvest

fell well behind normal in North Dakota, where an early-month mixture of wintery precipitation delayed progress. 

Harvest progressed well behind normal in Pennsylvania also. The harvest season ended ahead of normal in

Kentucky and North Carolina.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 18 NASS, USDA

The cotton harvest was about 1 week ahead of last year and the 5-year average when the month began, but rain

and frozen precipitation limited progress, especially before mid-month. Harvest progressed with few delays on

the High Plains and gradually accelerated elsewhere in the Great Plains and interior Mississippi Delta after

mid-month, as soils and cotton bolls slowly dried. Harvest progress remained ahead of normal in Oklahoma, but

lagged throughout the month in Texas. Dry weather aided early-month harvest progress on the Atlantic Coastal

Plains, where Virginia and North Carolina growers, respectively, picked 27 and 20 percent of their crop during the

week ended November 12. The harvest pace was slower in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, but progress

remained ahead of normal throughout the month. On November 26, the crop was 85 percent harvested, equal to

last year and the 5-year average. Picking progressed ahead of normal in the Southwest.

Soybean harvest was 95 percent complete on November 5, slightly behind last year’s pace, but ahead of the

92-percent average for this date. Harvest rapidly progressed in Michigan, but very little acreage remained to be

harvested in the rest of the Corn Belt. Harvest remained active in Arkansas, despite brief rain delays. Dry

weather aided harvest progress on the Atlantic Coastal Plains. The sorghum crop was 94 percent harvested on

November 5, more than 1 week ahead of last year’s progress and about 3 weeks ahead of the average for that date. 

Harvest was active on the High Plains, especially in Colorado and New Mexico. Rain hindered harvest progress

in Oklahoma and Texas until after mid-month.

The sugar beet crop was 98 percent harvested in the major sugar beet-producing States by November 12. Dry

weather aided rapid harvest progress in Idaho and Michigan through the first half of the month. Rain interfered

with the sugarcane harvest along the western Gulf Coast, but nearly ideal weather aided harvest progress in

Florida. The sunflower harvest progressed to 92 percent complete on November 26. Harvest slowly advanced in

Colorado, Kansas, and North Dakota due to a combination of rain and snow. The peanut crop was 93 percent

harvested on November 26, compared with 96 percent on that date last year. In Texas, harvest continued on the

High Plains, but remained stalled in other areas due to wet soils. Wet weather also hindered progress in

Oklahoma. In the Southeast, growers completed the harvest, despite occasional rain delays. Harvest neared

completion ahead of normal along the Atlantic Coastal Plains.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.3 million acres, is up 1 percent from last year, but down

20,000 acres from the November estimate. American-Pima harvested acreage, at 172,000 acres, is down

40 percent from last year. 

The Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia) experienced

dry weather throughout most of November. All States, except Virginia, maintained a harvest pace which

exceeded their 5-year average; however, rains during the last week of November resulted in some brief delays to

completing harvest. Alabama producers harvested 96 percent of their cotton acreage by November 26, compared

to 94 percent on average. On this same date, Georgia reported 86 percent of their acreage harvested, 4 percentage

points ahead of average. North Carolina was 6 points ahead of its 5-year average harvest pace and reported

88 percent completed as of November 26. South Carolina reported 92 percent complete on November 26, five

points ahead of average. Virginia harvest progressed rapidly during November. Harvest activities had been slow

due to cool weather throughout the growing season, which resulted in a slow maturing crop. As of November

26, Virginia reported 84 percent of its cotton acreage harvested, exactly the same as the 5-year average.

Harvest neared completion in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) at or

near record pace. Louisiana growers completed harvest prior to November 1, while the other Delta States had

well over 90 percent or their acreage harvested before November. Rains during November delayed the

completion of harvest in these States; however, by November 21, all five Delta States had completed harvest. 

Data from objective yield surveys show boll weights in Arkansas were ranked sixth in the last 10 years. 

Louisiana’s weight was ranked seventh since 1991, while Mississippi’s weight was ranked ninth.

Cotton harvest in the Southwestern States (Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) progressed slowly during

November due to rain and high humidity. Quality and yields were adversely affected by the rainfall. Despite the

delays, Oklahoma remained ahead of the 5-year average harvest pace. Texas, which began the harvest season

ahead of average, had fallen off pace by mid-November. On November 26, Texas reported 70 percent of its

cotton acreage harvested, compared to the 5-year average of 76 percent. Oklahoma reported 81 percent of its

acreage harvested by November 26, ten percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Cotton objective yield

data indicate Texas’ boll weights are ranked ninth in the past ten years.

Harvest progressed ahead of the 5-year average in California and Arizona throughout the month of November,

despite rains during the first half of the month. As of November 26, Arizona reported 88 percent of its upland

cotton acreage harvested. This was 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. California reported

92 percent of their acreage harvested as of November 26, four percentage points ahead of average. Although the
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 19 NASS, USDA

rains had only minimal delays on harvest activities, quality factors were diminished in some areas. Data from

objective yield plots indicate California’s boll weights ranked ninth since 1991.

American-Pima production is forecast at 409,800 bales, down 6,000 bales from the November forecast, and

down 39 percent from last year’s output. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,144 pounds per harvested acre, 16 pounds

above the last year’s record setting yield. Texas’ production is up 4,000 bales from the November forecast, while

California’s production is down 10,000 bales. California harvest was virtually complete by the beginning of

December; however, nearly one-third of crop remained to be ginned.

All cotton ginnings totaled 13,657,000 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 13,379,100 running

bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 11,309,550 running bales in 1998.

Burley Tobacco: U.S. burley tobacco production for 2000 is forecast at 410 million pounds, down 2 percent from

the November 1 forecast and 26 percent below 1999. Yield for 2000 is expected to average 2,041 pounds per

acre, 32 pounds less than the November 1 forecast but 212 pounds above a year ago. Area for harvest in 2000 is

forecast at 201,000 acres, unchanged from the November 1 forecast but down 34 percent from 1999. Burley

auction markets opened on November 20. The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service reports that as of

December 7, total burley tobacco sales for the season totaled 142.8 million pounds.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.38 million pounds for November, 4 percent more than

October and 23 percent higher than November 1999. Crop area totaled 2,720 acres, virtually unchanged from last

month but 15 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 1,585 acres, was up slightly from October

but 1 percent lower than last November. The increased production resulted from improved yields compared to a

year ago, as harvested acreage actually declined from November 1999. Production from virus resistant varieties,

along with other strategies to combat the papaya ringspot virus, have boosted yields for most of the year.

November weather turned wintery, with torrential rainfall (2 to 3 feet in a 24-hour period) in some major growing

areas on Hawaii island early in the month. In spite of the heavy rain, damage to orchards was light. However, the

very wet, moist conditions following the storm prompted spray programs to control disease outbreaks, primarily

phytophthora. Weather during the remainder of the month was variable with a mixture of sunshine and showers.

Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is estimated at 26.4 million cwt for 2000, down 21 percent

from 1999 and 13 percent below two years ago for comparable States. Harvested acres are estimated

at 1.61 million acres, 15 percent below last year and down 16 percent from 1998 for comparable States. 

Comparable States can be calculated by subtracting South Dakota from all 2000 estimates and subtracting New

Mexico from all 1998 and 1999 estimates. Production is down in 2000 for all estimating States except Montana,

Oregon, and Wisconsin. Production for all classes except for garbanzo is below 1999. Pinto and navy, the two

largest varieties, decreased 2 percent and 35 percent, respectively from 1999.

Production in North Dakota is estimated at 7.61 million cwt, 8 percent below 1999 and down 22 percent from two

years ago. Average yield, at 1,450 pounds per acre, is unchanged from last year but 70 pounds above 1998. 

Production increases in pinto, garbanzo, and “other” classes were more than offset by production declines in

black, dark red kidney, navy, and pink classes. Extreme rainfall during June in the eastern half of the State

flooded many fields which contributed to larger than normal abandonment. Production in Minnesota, at

2.40 million cwt, is 6 percent below last year and 5 percent less than 1998.

In Michigan production is estimated at 4.13 million cwt, 44 percent below last year and down 7 percent

from 1998. Average yield, at 1,500 pounds per acre, is down 600 pounds from last year’s record high but the

same as 1998. Production decreases in black, cranberry, light red kidney, navy, and small red classes more than

offset production increases in pinto, dark red kidney, and “other” classes. Excessive rain and standing water at

the end of July and cool, wet conditions in September reduced yields and slowed crop development.

Nebraska’s production is estimated at 3.23 million cwt, down 14 percent from 1999 and 12 percent below two

years ago. Average yield in Nebraska is estimated at 2,070 pounds per acre. This is the highest yield since 1986

when the yield averaged 2,100 pounds per acre. Production in Colorado, at 1.98 million cwt, is 28 percent below

last year and 31 percent under 1998. In Idaho, production is estimated at 1.72 million cwt, down 19 percent from

both 1999 and 1998. Average yield, at 1,950 pounds per acre, is 100 pounds below last year. Hot temperatures

during critical crop development stages lowered dry bean yields.

Production in California is estimated at 2.02 million cwt, 18 percent below 1999 but 30 percent above two years

ago. Harvest went well in California, with good quality reported.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 20 NASS, USDA

Wet weather in spring and early summer limited dry bean planting in New York. Heat and drought conditions

during the summer and early fall followed by heavy continuous rain in late fall adversely affected yields in Texas. 

Extremely dry weather also affected yields in Utah. In Wyoming, production was lowered due to a freeze and

snow in mid-September.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2000-01 grapefruit crop for the United States remains at 2.65 million tons, down

4 percent from last season but up 5 percent from the 1998-99 season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is

50.0 million boxes (2.13 million tons), unchanged from October but 6 percent lower than the previous season. 

The all white grapefruit forecast, which includes seedless and seedy varieties, remains at 20.0 million boxes

(850,000 tons). If realized, the crop size will be down 4 percent from last season. The colored seedless utilization

is forecast at 30.0 million boxes (1.28 million tons), the same as in October but 6 percent less than the previous

season. Even though the weather during the last two months has been exceptionally dry, below average

temperatures and the extensive use of irrigation appear to have produced offsetting effects. Although sizes are

smaller than anticipated, droppage is at the lowest level of the 10-year series. Forecasts for Arizona, California,

and Texas are carried forward from October.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2000-01 tangelo forecast is unchanged from October’s 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons) but

is 5 percent less than last season’s utilized production. If realized, it will be the smallest tangelo crop since the

1968-69 season. Fruit size is well below the average of the past 10 seasons.

Tangerines: The 2000-01 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 406,000 tons, unchanged from the October 1

forecast, but down 10 percent from last season’s record high utilization of 451,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop

is continued at 6.30 million boxes (299,000 tons), down 10 percent from the record high use of 7.00 million boxes

(333,000 tons) last season. The harvest of Fallglo and Robinson tangerines is almost complete, while the harvest

of Sunburst, the predominate variety, is well underway. The Dancy and late season Honey harvests have not

started. Arizona and California forecasts are carried forward from the October forecast.

Temples: Florida’s 2000-01 Temple forecast is 1.80 million boxes (81,000 tons), unchanged from October. If

realized, it will be 8 percent lower than the 1.95 million boxes (88,000 tons) recorded last season but equal to the

utilization from the 1998-99 season. Average fruit size continues to be at the smallest level in the past 10 seasons.

K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2000-01 remains at 60,000 boxes (2,700 tons),

50,000 boxes fewer than last season, but 20,000 boxes more than the record low usage during the 1997-98 season.

Florida Citrus: The month of November was one of the driest on record for Florida’s citrus belt. Growers and

caretakers irrigated around the clock in most areas to maintain good tree condition and promote fruit growth. 

Lakes, ponds, and water reservoirs are at very low levels and in some locations, completely dry. Most early and

midseason fruit have very good on-tree color. Fresh fruit packinghouses are shipping navel and mid-season

oranges, white and colored grapefruit, tangerines, tangelos, and K-Early Citrus fruit. Most processing plants are

open and receiving field-run fruit and packinghouse eliminations. Caretakers are cutting cover crops prior to

harvesting and as an aid in fire protection. Limited clean-up spraying is occurring on late season crops grown for

fresh use.

Texas Citrus: Grapefruit and early season orange picking are progressing at a normal pace with about one

quarter of the crop harvested. Fruit quality has been good, but size of fruit has been smaller than expected. 

Recent rains received in the Valley should promote fruit size.

California Citrus: Picking of old crop Valencia oranges was completed in November and the harvest of new

crop navel oranges gathered momentum. Color and maturity have been good. Picking of lemons and grapefruit

was active in southern California. Tangerine harvest was also active in November.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: By the end of November, the harvests of many crops were completed. 

Growers were pruning, removing trees, and planting cover crops. Other activities included fumigating the ground

for new settings of peach, prune, walnut, and almond trees. Kiwifruit and persimmon harvests were active in
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 21 NASS, USDA

November and picking of grapes for fresh and wine uses was winding down. Olive and pecan harvests were also

near completion by month’s end.

Pecans: The December 1 forecast for 2000 pecan production is 209 million pounds (in-shell basis), down

3 percent from the October 1 forecast and 48 percent below last year’s record high crop. The expected alternate

bearing cycle has combined with unfavorable weather conditions resulting in the sharply lower crop size. 

Improved varieties are expected to make up 166 million pounds, or 79 percent of the total, while the Native and

seedling varieties make up the balance.

The Georgia forecast remained at 80.0 million pounds, 33 percent lower than 1999's record high crop. Most of

the decrease is related to the alternate bearing cycle. This is also the third consecutive year with drought

conditions. About 70 percent of the Georgia harvest was completed as of December 1. New Mexico’s forecast

also remained steady at 35.0 million pounds, 33 percent below last year. Slightly over 25 percent of the crop had

been harvested by December 1. The Texas production forecast is 30.0 million pounds, unchanged from the

October 1 forecast but still 67 percent below the 1999 production. Texas harvest was about half completed as of

December 1.

The Oklahoma production forecast was lowered to 3.00 million pounds, down 5.00 million pounds from the

October forecast and only 5 percent of the 1999 production. Much of the decrease is due to the alternate bearing

cycle, which is especially prevalent with Native and seedling trees. The crop has also been plagued by poor

weather conditions. Virtually no rain was received early in the season, then a freeze was received in early

October, followed by heavy rains in late October.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 36.1 million tons, 2 percent above the

previous record of 35.3 million tons set last year and 1 percent above the November forecast. Sugarcane growers

intend to harvest a record high 1.03 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2000 crop year, 3 percent more

than last year’s final harvested acres. Yield is forecast at 35.1 tons per acre, 0.4 ton above the November forecast. 

The yield and production increases were due to a higher forecasted yield and production in Florida. 

Louisiana growers expect to harvest a record high 490,000 acres. In Florida, expected acres for harvest are

1 percent below last year’s level. Harvest continued with few delays in Florida due to nearly ideal weather. 

Heavy rains periodically interrupted the harvest pace in Louisiana, Texas, and Hawaii during the first half of the

month, but drier weather aided harvest progress after mid-month.

Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 9.10 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 2000-01 season,

down 9 percent from the previous season. Harvested acreage is estimated at a record high 6,800 acres, up

6 percent from the 1999-2000 season. Coffee production from the island of Hawaii, including the Kona districts,

is down from the 1999-2000 season. Relatively dry weather hampered yields on non-irrigated fields. Irrigated

fields, however, are expected to have good yields. Harvest started later than usual and the size of the beans is

larger this season. The combined production from the islands of Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai is also down. 

These islands are also experiencing a later than usual harvest and improved bean quality.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 22 NASS, USDA

Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield surveys were conducted to gather information on expected yields as of

December 1. The objective yield surveys for cotton were conducted in producing States that usually account for

approximately 98 percent of the U.S. production. At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the

farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. 

The objective yield survey for oranges for the December 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces

about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit

per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted

to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys

on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield estimates for cotton and State level objective

yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical

estimates. For cotton, reports from cotton ginners in each State were also considered. For oranges, reports from

growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were used for setting estimates. The December 1 orange

production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from October. Each cotton State Statistical Office

and Florida, for oranges, submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). 

The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published December 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. For cotton, a new forecast will be

made in January followed by end-of-season estimates in May. At the end of the marketing year, administrative

records are reviewed and revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be

revised any time a production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has

changed since the last estimate.

For oranges, the December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month

throughout the growing season. End of year estimates will be published in September’s Citrus Fruits Summary. 

The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information

from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and

home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means that

chances are two out of three that the current cotton production forecast will not be above or below the final

estimate by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference

will not exceed 3.0 percent. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 orange production forecast is

12.8 percent. However, if you exclude the seven freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 4.7 percent. 

This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or

below the final estimate by more than 12.8 percent or 4.7 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out

of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 22.1 percent or 8.3 percent, excluding

freeze seasons. 

Changes between the December 1 cotton forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

205,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast for cotton has been below the

final estimate 11 times and above 9 times. Changes between the December 1 orange forecast and the final

estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 755,000 tons (361,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from

4,000 tons to 2.39 million tons (5,000 tons to 868,000 tons, excluding freezes). The December 1 forecast for

oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 7 times and above 6 times,

excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to

understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2000 23 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to

contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-2127

Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops,

Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing

Vegetables (202) 720-3250

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488

Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans &

Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270

Steve Gunn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

Tobacco (202) 720-4488

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables,

Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. on January 10, 2001.

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