Cr Pr 2-2 (10-03) a

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released October 10, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Update Alert

Page 4 has been updated. Sorghum planted acres for Mississippi has been corrected. The U.S. total was correct.

Corn Production Up 3 Percent from September Forecast

Soybean Production Down 7 Percent 

Cotton Production Up 4 Percent from September Forecast

Orange Production Up 18 Percent from Last Season

Corn production is forecast at 10.2 billion bushels, up 3 percent from last month and 13 percent above 2002. 

Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 142.2 bushels per acre, up 3.7 bushels from

September and up 12.2 bushels from last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest ever. 

Both records were set in 1994 when production was estimated at 10.1 billion bushels and the yield was

138.6 bushels per acre. Yields turned out to be higher than expected across much of the Corn Belt and central Great

Plains as farmers began to harvest their crops. Producers are now realizing that the hot, dry conditions during

August did not have as much negative impact on yields as originally thought. Based on Farm Service Agency

administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States and farmers now expect to harvest

71.8 million acres of corn for grain, down 50,000 acres from September but up 4 percent from 2002.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.47 billion bushels, down 7 percent from the September forecast and 10 percent

below 2002. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1996. Based on conditions as of October 1,

yields are expected to average 34.0 bushels per acre, down 2.4 bushels from September and down 4.0 bushels from

2002. With harvest underway, yields are lower than last month in the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains

reflecting the impact of the hot, dry conditions in August and continued mostly dry weather during September. 

However, excellent growing conditions continue to support higher yields in the Delta States, Kentucky, and

Tennessee. Based on Farm Service Agency administrative information, acreage updates were made in several

States and now area planted is estimated at 73.6 million acres, down 68,000 acres from the August estimate. Area

for harvest is forecast at 72.5 million acres, down 88,000 acres from September, but up fractionally from the 2002

acreage.

Revised 2002 soybean acres, yield, and production were published in the September 30, 2003 Grain Stocks report.

All cotton production is forecast at 17.6 million 480-pound bales, up 4 percent from last month and 2 percent above

last year’s production. Yield is expected to average 696 pounds per acre, up 29 pounds from last month. Ten of the

17 cotton estimating States are expecting a higher production forecast than a month ago. Harvested area, at

12.1 million acres, is down 1 percent from last month due to an acreage decrease in Texas. This decrease was due

to the southern High Plains area being hit by one of the worst late season hail storms. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 2 NASS, USDA

The U.S. all orange initial forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.6 million tons, up 18 percent from last season’s final

utilization. This near record level production is second only to the 1997-98 season of 13.7 million tons. Florida’s

all orange forecast is a record high 252 million boxes (11.3 million tons). This estimate is 24 percent above last

season and 3 percent more than the previous record high of 244 million boxes in 1997-98. Early, midseason, and

Navel varieties are forecast at 137 million boxes (6.17 million tons), 22 percent above last season’s final utilization. 

The Valencia forecast is a record high 115 million boxes (5.18 million tons), 26 percent above the previous season

and 11 percent above the previous record high of 104 million boxes produced during the 1997-98 season. Trees are

in excellent condition as a result of above average rainfall. Multiple flushes of new growth were observed all

summer. Tropical storms brought heavy rains but no damaging winds. Current fruit sizes are larger than the

10-season average. Average fruit per tree is up over 28 percent from last season reflecting the heavy bloom period

and excellent weather conditions throughout the year. Combined with bearing trees, the resulting fruit population is

up 25 percent from last season. This high fruit per tree count and the above average fruit size is combining to create

the record high production.

California’s all orange forecast for October is 59.0 million boxes (2.21 million tons), down 5 percent from last

season’s final utilization. The Navel orange forecast is carried forward from September at 39.0 million boxes

(1.46 million tons) and is 5 percent below the 2002-03 crop. Lighter fruit sets have been observed but overall sizes

are expected to be larger than last season. The initial forecast for Valencia oranges is 20.0 million boxes

(750,000 tons), down 5 percent from the previous season. The crop is progressing normally. California Valencia

growers are reducing acreage in response to market pressures and expanding urbanization.

The Texas initial forecast for the 2003-04 all orange crop is 1.55 million boxes (66,000 tons), down 1 percent from

last season’s final utilization. Arizona’s 2003-04 all orange crop is 470,000 boxes, unchanged from the 2002-03

final utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2003-04 season is forecast at 1.55 gallons per box

at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is slightly higher than the final yield for the 2002-03 season of 1.54 gallons per box as

reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. Projected yield for the 2003-04 early-midseason and

Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production Report.

This report was approved on October 10, 2003.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

J. B. Penn

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Apples .................................................................................. 22

Beans, Dry Edible ......................................................................... 16

Citrus ................................................................................... 21

Canola .................................................................................. 11

Corn for Grain ............................................................................. 6

 Ears Per Acre ........................................................................... 31

Cotton .................................................................................. 12

 Cumulative Bolls Counts ................................................................... 33

Cottonseed ............................................................................... 13

Crop Summary ............................................................................ 25

Crop Comments ........................................................................... 37

Grapes .................................................................................. 24

Hay, Alfalfa .............................................................................. 14

 Other .................................................................................. 15

Information Contacts ....................................................................... 48

Papayas ................................................................................. 24

Peanuts .................................................................................. 11

Pecans .................................................................................. 23

Potatoes, Winter .......................................................................... 16

Reliability of Production Data in this Report ..................................................... 46

Rice, by State .............................................................................. 8

 By Class ................................................................................. 8

Selected Crops ............................................................................. 4

Sorghum for Grain .......................................................................... 7

Soybeans .................................................................................. 9

 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet .......................................................... 32

Sugarbeets ............................................................................... 20

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed ................................................................ 20

Sunflowers ............................................................................... 10

 Acres by Variety ......................................................................... 11

Tobacco, by State ......................................................................... 17

 By Class and Type ........................................................................ 18

Weather Maps ............................................................................ 34

Weather Summary ......................................................................... 36
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 4 NASS, USDA

Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State

and United States, 2003

State

Corn Sorghum Soybeans

Planted 1 Harvested 2 Planted 1 Harvested 2 Planted 1 Harvested 2

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

230

45

360

520

1,090

30

170

85

350

200

11,200

5,650

12,300

2,900

1,190

520

26

480

22

2,300

7,200

550

2,900

60

8,100

4

16

80

130

1,050

740

1,450

3,400

230

65

1,450

2

270

4,500

710

1,850

55

96

480

130

45

3,750

85

79,066

210

22

350

130

940

160

28

310

50

11,050

5,450

12,000

2,650

1,090

500

400

2,050

6,650

530

2,800

15

7,750

67

40

460

640

1,250

3,150

200

30

900

250

4,100

650

1,600

13

275

80

27

2,850

48

71,765

12

18

230

18

270

2

50

110

3,600

35

170

6

85

220

650

140

18

330

14

7

270

45

3,200

9

9,509

7

7

215

13

210

1

30

105

3,100

33

165

4

83

210

510

90

13

250

4

4

150

41

2,600

6

7,851

170

2,900

180

13

190

10,400

5,450

10,600

2,600

1,270

760

430

2,000

7,500

1,460

5,000

4,550

90

145

1,460

3,150

4,300

270

370

430

4,250

1,180

200

500

17

1,750

73,585

155

2,850

175

12

180

10,350

5,350

10,550

2,500

1,250

730

420

1,990

7,400

1,410

4,950

4,500

88

142

1,390

3,100

4,280

255

365

410

4,200

1,150

180

480

16

1,710

72,538

 1 Updated from the August 2003 "Crop Production" report. 2 Updated from the September 2003 "Crop Production" report.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 5 NASS, USDA

Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State

and United States, 2003 1

State

Canola

Sunflower

Oil Non Oil All

Planted Harvested Planted Harvested Planted Harvested Planted Harvested

CO

KS

MN

NE

ND

SD

TX

Oth

 Sts 2

US

60

1,000

61

1,121

57

970

58

1,085

95

170

55

52

1,070

475

15

78

2,010

75

160

52

50

1,050

470

13

70

1,940

35

20

35

15

160

30

42

17

354

32

19

33

14

155

29

40

12

334

130

190

90

67

1,230

505

57

95

2,364

107

179

85

64

1,205

499

53

82

2,274

 1 Updated from the June 2003 "Acreage" report. 2 Other States for canola include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA.

Other States for Sunflowers include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 6 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

CA

CO

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

180

260

150

720

167

290

11,000

5,220

11,900

2,500

1,040

560

425

2,020

6,700

530

2,700

7,350

70

49

450

700

995

2,870

190

870

260

3,200

620

1,820

305

70

2,900

232

69,313

210

350

130

940

160

310

11,050

5,450

12,000

2,650

1,090

500

400

2,050

6,650

530

2,800

7,750

67

40

460

640

1,250

3,150

200

900

250

4,100

650

1,600

275

80

2,850

233

71,765

88.0

134.0

170.0

156.0

83.0

115.0

136.0

121.0

165.0

116.0

102.0

122.0

76.0

115.0

157.0

125.0

105.0

128.0

58.0

180.0

97.0

83.0

115.0

88.0

130.0

68.0

46.0

95.0

107.0

113.0

66.0

190.0

135.0

133.7

130.0

112.0

140.0

170.0

147.0

138.0

135.0

154.0

145.0

154.0

120.0

136.0

140.0

133.0

129.0

151.0

130.0

101.0

137.0

110.0

170.0

115.0

110.0

104.0

145.0

130.0

122.0

114.0

105.0

130.0

111.0

130.0

195.0

131.0

137.3

138.5

112.0

140.0

170.0

148.0

138.0

135.0

169.0

148.0

156.0

123.0

140.0

135.0

131.0

129.0

143.0

130.0

109.0

143.0

110.0

170.0

112.0

110.0

100.0

154.0

125.0

120.0

112.0

105.0

132.0

111.0

130.0

195.0

134.0

141.1

142.2

15,840

34,840

25,500

112,320

13,861

33,350

1,496,000

631,620

1,963,500

290,000

106,080

68,320

32,300

232,300

1,051,900

66,250

283,500

940,800

4,060

8,820

43,650

58,100

114,425

252,560

24,700

59,160

11,960

304,000

66,340

205,660

20,130

13,300

391,500

31,013

9,007,659

23,520

49,000

22,100

139,120

22,080

41,850

1,867,450

806,600

1,872,000

325,950

152,600

67,500

52,400

264,450

950,950

68,900

305,200

1,108,250

7,370

6,800

51,520

70,400

125,000

485,100

25,000

108,000

28,000

430,500

85,800

177,600

35,750

15,600

381,900

32,881

10,207,141

 1 Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop

Production 2003 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 7 NASS, USDA

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AR

CO

IL

KS

LA

MO

NE

NM

OK

SD

TX

Oth

 Sts 1

US

230

90

77

3,000

165

185

300

80

330

90

2,550

202

7,299

215

210

105

3,100

165

210

510

90

250

150

2,600

246

7,851

77.0

20.0

83.0

45.0

81.0

85.0

50.0

35.0

45.0

34.0

51.0

69.3

50.7

85.0

30.0

85.0

43.0

82.0

75.0

53.0

35.0

38.0

52.0

54.0

78.1

51.0

86.0

32.0

85.0

43.0

85.0

71.0

59.0

35.0

34.0

52.0

52.0

79.4

51.0

17,710

1,800

6,391

135,000

13,365

15,725

15,000

2,800

14,850

3,060

130,050

14,007

369,758

18,490

6,720

8,925

133,300

14,025

14,910

30,090

3,150

8,500

7,800

135,200

19,543

400,653

 1 Other States include AL, AZ, CA, DE, GA, KY, MD, MS, NC, PA, SC, TN, and VA. Individual State level estimates will be published

in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 8 NASS, USDA

Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO

TX

US

1,503

528

535

253

182

206

3,207

1,454

495

445

233

170

181

2,978

6,440

8,140

5,500

6,400

6,050

7,100

6,578

6,550

8,000

5,800

6,450

6,100

6,700

6,655

6,550

7,900

5,800

6,500

6,100

6,400

6,624

96,752

42,989

29,400

16,192

11,011

14,616

210,960

95,237

39,105

25,810

15,145

10,370

11,584

197,251

 1 Sweet rice acreage included in 2003, but not previous years.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,

2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain 1 All

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

2001

2002

2003 2

167,555

157,243

145,294

46,105

52,201

49,214

1,610

1,516

2,743

215,270

210,960

197,251

 1 Sweet rice production included with short grain in 2003, but not previous years. 2 Indicated October 1, 2003, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 9 NASS, USDA

Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

155

2,880

185

140

10,550

5,770

10,400

2,540

1,260

660

470

2,040

7,100

1,370

5,000

4,580

97

144

1,290

2,630

4,720

250

390

415

4,090

1,120

205

440

1,520

26

72,437

155

2,850

175

180

10,350

5,350

10,550

2,500

1,250

730

420

1,990

7,400

1,410

4,950

4,500

88

142

1,390

3,100

4,280

255

365

410

4,200

1,150

180

480

1,710

28

72,538

24.0

33.5

25.0

21.0

43.0

41.5

48.0

23.0

33.0

32.0

23.0

38.5

43.5

32.0

34.0

38.5

23.0

32.0

24.0

33.0

31.0

26.0

26.0

17.0

31.0

31.0

28.0

23.0

44.0

35.6

38.0

31.0

34.0

34.0

33.0

42.0

43.0

39.0

20.0

38.0

32.0

33.0

38.0

37.0

34.0

29.0

39.0

33.0

38.0

28.0

29.0

42.0

21.0

40.0

25.0

30.0

36.0

26.0

34.0

36.0

33.2

36.4

31.0

35.0

36.0

33.0

37.0

40.0

34.0

22.0

40.0

34.0

36.0

32.0

32.0

36.0

28.0

39.0

30.0

37.0

30.0

28.0

41.0

25.0

40.0

24.0

30.0

38.0

26.0

34.0

30.0

34.9

34.0

3,720

96,480

4,625

2,940

453,650

239,455

499,200

58,420

41,580

21,120

10,810

78,540

308,850

43,840

170,000

176,330

2,231

4,608

30,960

86,790

146,320

6,500

10,140

7,055

126,790

34,720

5,740

10,120

66,880

926

2,749,340

4,805

99,750

6,300

5,940

382,950

214,000

358,700

55,000

50,000

24,820

15,120

63,680

236,800

50,760

138,600

175,500

2,640

5,254

41,700

86,800

175,480

6,375

14,600

9,840

126,000

43,700

4,680

16,320

51,300

976

2,468,390

 1 Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 10 NASS, USDA

Sunflowers: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2001-2002 1 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

Varietal

Type &

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003 2 2001 2002 2003 2

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oil

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Non-Oil

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

All

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

60

155

37

34

1,105

375

9

40

1,815

20

13

27

11

210

55

20

9

365

80

168

64

45

1,315

430

29

49

2,180

75

160

52

50

1,050

470

13

70

1,940

32

19

33

14

155

29

40

12

334

107

179

85

64

1,205

499

53

82

2,274

650

900

1,450

500

1,310

850

800

1,178

1,140

1,050

930

1,200

700

1,250

1,000

1,000

1,015

1,150

750

902

1,345

549

1,300

869

938

1,148

1,142

1,020

1,250

1,405

1,080

1,200

1,000

1,000

1,220

1,152

136,800

348,000

39,200

50,000

1,202,400

932,010

36,300

58,994

2,803,704

71,300

43,890

35,000

33,350

270,900

63,800

84,000

12,815

615,055

208,100

391,890

74,200

83,350

1,473,300

995,810

120,300

71,809

3,418,759

39,000

139,500

53,650

17,000

1,447,550

318,750

7,200

47,130

2,069,780

21,000

12,090

32,400

7,700

262,500

55,000

20,000

9,136

419,826

60,000

151,590

86,050

24,700

1,710,050

373,750

27,200

56,266

2,489,606

109,140

223,750

119,425

69,120

1,446,000

499,000

53,000

100,062

2,619,497

 1 2002 Revised. 2 2003 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". 3 Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 11 NASS, USDA

Sunflowers: Area Planted by Varietal Type,

State and United States, 2002 1

State Varietal Type

Oil Non-Oil All

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CO

KS

MN

NE

ND

SD

TX

Oth Sts 2

US

95

200

40

47

1,150

535

10

48

2,125

35

15

30

13

220

105

25

12

455

130

215

70

60

1,370

640

35

60

2,580

 1 Revised. 2 Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY.

Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Al

FL

GA

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

185.0

86.0

505.0

18.0

100.0

57.0

8.7

280.0

57.0

1,296.7

189.0

107.0

535.0

17.0

100.0

38.0

18.0

240.0

33.0

1,277.0

2,050

2,300

2,600

3,000

2,100

2,800

2,200

3,100

2,100

2,561

2,900

2,900

3,200

2,900

2,900

2,900

3,200

3,400

2,800

3,121

2,900

2,900

3,200

2,900

2,800

2,900

3,200

3,300

2,800

3,095

379,250

197,800

1,313,000

54,000

210,000

159,600

19,140

868,000

119,700

3,320,490

548,100

310,300

1,712,000

49,300

280,000

110,200

57,600

792,000

92,400

3,951,900

Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State

and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

MN

ND

Oth Sts 1

US

45

1,160

70

1,275

57

970

58

1,085

850

1,230

1,250

1,218

1,900

1,400

1,369

1,425

88,500

1,799,000

111,015

1,998,515

38,250

1,426,800

87,470

1,552,520

108,300

1,358,000

79,409

1,545,709

 1 Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 12 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

540.0

213.0

920.0

477.0

1,360.0

495.0

1,150.0

368.0

50.0

920.0

180.0

200.0

530.0

4,500.0

98.0

183.0

12,184.0

8.2

209.0

7.1

18.3

242.6

540.0

221.2

920.0

686.0

1,360.0

495.0

1,150.0

368.0

57.1

920.0

180.0

200.0

530.0

4,518.3

98.0

183.0

12,426.6

510.0

208.0

940.0

555.0

1,290.0

520.0

1,100.0

390.0

42.0

770.0

170.0

217.0

535.0

4,400.0

85.0

207.0

11,939.0

3.9

139.0

6.0

19.5

168.4

510.0

211.9

940.0

694.0

1,290.0

520.0

1,100.0

390.0

48.0

770.0

170.0

217.0

535.0

4,419.5

85.0

207.0

12,107.4

507

1,381

871

1,469

557

717

808

796

816

421

557

314

741

538

465

452

651

1,013

1,386

1,041

1,110

1,342

507

1,368

871

1,444

557

717

808

796

844

421

557

314

741

540

465

452

665

706

1,315

804

1,297

733

738

851

689

857

623

452

719

709

437

734

645

659

1,169

1,278

880

985

1,227

706

1,313

804

1,293

733

738

851

689

860

623

452

719

709

440

734

645

667

753

1,292

837

1,384

763

877

916

738

857

623

480

719

763

436

678

645

688

1,108

1,312

960

985

1,257

753

1,289

837

1,369

763

877

916

738

870

623

480

719

763

439

678

645

696

570.0

613.0

1,669.0

1,460.0

1,578.0

739.0

1,935.0

610.0

85.0

806.0

209.0

131.0

818.0

5,040.0

95.0

172.3

16,530.3

17.3

603.3

15.4

42.3

678.3

570.0

630.3

1,669.0

2,063.3

1,578.0

739.0

1,935.0

610.0

100.4

806.0

209.0

131.0

818.0

5,082.3

95.0

172.3

17,208.6

800.0

560.0

1,640.0

1,600.0

2,050.0

950.0

2,100.0

600.0

75.0

1,000.0

170.0

325.0

850.0

4,000.0

120.0

278.0

17,118.0

9.0

380.0

12.0

40.0

441.0

800.0

569.0

1,640.0

1,980.0

2,050.0

950.0

2,100.0

600.0

87.0

1,000.0

170.0

325.0

850.0

4,040.0

120.0

278.0

17,559.0

 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3 Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 13 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Production

2001 2002 2003 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 7,452.2 6,183.9 6,446.0

 1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 14 NASS, USDA

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AZ

CA

CO

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

MI

MN

MO

MT

NE

NV

NM

NY

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SD

TX

UT

VA

WA

WI

WY

Oth

 Sts 1

US

230

1,140

780

1,250

450

280

1,250

950

300

900

1,600

460

1,400

1,350

275

260

570

1,450

590

340

475

680

2,400

130

560

120

490

1,650

500

305

23,135

245

1,090

750

1,200

450

330

1,380

950

300

750

1,450

450

1,650

1,450

265

250

600

1,550

580

310

460

700

2,600

140

545

130

490

1,600

600

276

23,541

8.10

7.10

2.90

4.00

3.60

3.30

3.90

3.70

3.00

3.50

3.30

3.00

2.10

3.00

4.30

5.60

2.30

1.30

3.00

3.50

4.30

2.60

1.40

5.00

3.60

2.50

5.00

2.80

2.30

2.69

3.19

8.00

7.00

4.00

4.00

3.90

3.60

4.00

3.80

3.40

3.20

2.90

3.10

2.10

3.45

4.60

5.30

2.70

1.80

3.70

3.40

4.60

3.10

2.00

4.70

4.00

3.50

5.20

2.30

2.60

3.08

3.34

1,720

7,272

3,610

4,368

1,950

1,320

4,625

4,140

925

3,240

5,075

1,373

3,045

5,148

1,193

1,350

1,568

3,360

1,995

945

1,978

1,675

6,600

637

2,200

341

2,256

4,250

1,276

892

80,327

1,863

8,094

2,262

5,000

1,620

924

4,875

3,515

900

3,150

5,280

1,380

2,940

4,050

1,183

1,456

1,311

1,885

1,770

1,190

2,043

1,768

3,360

650

2,016

300

2,450

4,620

1,150

819

73,824

1,960

7,630

3,000

4,800

1,755

1,188

5,520

3,610

1,020

2,400

4,205

1,395

3,465

5,003

1,219

1,325

1,620

2,790

2,146

1,054

2,116

2,170

5,200

658

2,180

455

2,548

3,680

1,560

851

78,523

 1 Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published

in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 15 NASS, USDA

All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AR

CA

CO

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

Oth

 Sts 1

US

800

1,350

500

570

650

320

350

320

350

2,300

2,100

450

250

700

750

3,800

1,200

1,900

1,150

730

1,850

900

2,400

620

1,120

1,600

2,000

5,500

1,250

320

520

400

450

1,892

41,362

780

1,320

470

850

630

300

350

320

320

2,150

2,200

400

250

750

750

3,950

1,000

1,850

1,000

760

1,400

770

2,300

590

1,200

1,900

1,950

5,400

1,150

310

540

450

580

1,898

40,838

2.20

2.60

3.00

1.30

2.60

1.90

2.10

2.10

2.20

1.50

2.20

2.50

2.20

1.90

2.50

1.70

1.40

1.00

2.10

1.50

1.10

2.20

1.60

2.20

1.60

0.90

2.20

2.40

1.40

2.80

1.80

1.80

1.00

2.03

1.86

2.10

2.40

3.20

1.70

2.70

1.80

2.50

2.50

2.00

1.60

2.50

2.90

2.00

1.70

2.30

1.90

1.30

1.25

2.50

2.80

1.30

2.50

1.80

2.20

2.20

1.20

2.60

2.00

2.60

3.00

2.00

1.50

1.30

2.17

2.01

2,392

2,730

1,643

1,170

1,950

570

720

728

940

3,840

4,620

1,260

550

1,120

1,950

6,480

1,400

2,430

1,980

1,518

1,705

2,280

3,080

1,074

1,764

2,550

4,620

10,200

2,400

832

954

540

605

3,842

76,437

1,760

3,510

1,500

741

1,690

608

735

672

770

3,450

4,620

1,125

550

1,330

1,875

6,460

1,680

1,900

2,415

1,095

2,035

1,980

3,840

1,364

1,792

1,440

4,400

13,200

1,750

896

936

720

450

3,849

77,138

1,638

3,168

1,504

1,445

1,701

540

875

800

640

3,440

5,500

1,160

500

1,275

1,725

7,505

1,300

2,313

2,500

2,128

1,820

1,925

4,140

1,298

2,640

2,280

5,070

10,800

2,990

930

1,080

675

754

4,124

82,183

 1 Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, and VT. Individual State level estimates will be

published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 16 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1

State

Area Harvested Yield 2 Production 2

2002 2003 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT 3

NE

NM 3

NY

ND

OR 3

SD

TX

UT 3

WA

WI 3

WY

US

89.0

70.0

93.0

14.5

265.0

150.0

23.0

165.0

8.0

24.5

690.0

9.1

16.0

32.5

0.3

41.0

7.0

29.0

1,726.9

74.0

55.0

78.0

11.0

190.0

130.0

17.0

140.0

10.0

24.5

570.0

7.8

16.0

25.0

5.0

26.0

6.5

32.0

1,417.8

1,980

2,170

2,050

1,100

1,850

1,650

1,570

2,100

1,800

1,360

1,540

1,730

1,630

970

1,670

2,000

1,960

2,150

1,736

2,000

1,500

2,050

1,700

1,500

1,600

1,920

2,100

1,900

1,800

1,520

1,500

1,700

1,300

300

1,700

2,000

2,250

1,665

1,496

1,785

1,424

259

780

1,575

376

3,185

300

194

6,200

172

270

348

17

578

110

514

19,583

1,762

1,519

1,907

160

4,903

2,475

361

3,465

144

333

10,626

157

261

315

5

820

137

624

29,974

1,480

825

1,599

187

2,850

2,080

326

2,940

190

441

8,664

117

272

325

15

442

130

720

23,603

 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2 Cleaned basis. 3 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2002-2003 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

FL

US

9.0

6.8

15.8

8.5

6.1

14.6

9.0

6.7

15.7

8.5

5.8

14.3

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

FL

US

270

265

268

310

240

282

2,430

1,776

4,206

2,635

1,392

4,027

 1 2003 revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 17 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and

United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

CT

FL

GA

IN

KY

MD

MA

MO 1

NC

OH

PA

SC

TN

VA

WV 1

WI

US

1,890

4,600

26,500

4,000

111,100

1,700

1,160

1,300

168,300

5,500

3,400

30,500

35,900

30,000

1,300

1,510

428,660

2,200

4,300

29,000

4,000

105,300

1,500

1,250

1,200

160,000

5,300

3,700

32,000

34,040

26,270

1,200

1,750

413,010

1,672

2,600

2,100

2,000

2,007

1,400

1,623

2,385

2,067

1,750

2,004

1,950

2,096

2,225

1,500

2,526

2,055

1,705

2,500

2,200

2,050

2,179

1,400

1,718

1,900

1,946

1,800

2,130

2,100

2,255

1,633

1,650

2,351

2,044

3,772

11,700

64,206

9,450

254,653

3,300

1,807

3,081

386,920

11,956

6,166

78,400

86,893

63,415

1,885

3,619

991,223

3,161

11,960

55,650

8,000

222,991

2,380

1,883

3,101

347,920

9,625

6,815

59,475

75,261

66,747

1,950

3,815

880,734

3,750

10,750

63,800

8,200

229,480

2,100

2,148

2,280

311,400

9,540

7,880

67,200

76,770

42,905

1,980

4,115

844,298

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 18 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,

State, and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured

 Type 11, Old Belts

 NC

 VA

 US

 Type 12, Eastern NC

 Belt

 NC

 Type 13, NC Border &

 SC Belt

 NC

 SC

 US

 Type 14, GA-FL Belt

 FL

 GA

 US

 Total 11-14

Class 2, Fire-cured

 Type 21, VA Belt

 VA

 Type 22, Eastern

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 23, Western

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Total 21-23

Class 3, Air-cured

 Class 3A, Light

 Air-cured

 Type 31, Burley

 IN

 KY

 MO 1

 NC

 OH

 TN

 VA

 WV 1

 US

 Type 32, Southern MD

 Belt

 MD

 PA

 US

 Total 31-32

43,000

22,000

65,000

98,000

21,000

30,500

51,500

4,600

26,500

31,100

245,600

730

2,450

5,000

7,450

2,400

390

2,790

10,970

4,000

103,000

1,300

6,300

5,500

30,000

7,200

1,300

158,600

1,700

1,300

3,000

161,600

40,000

19,000

59,000

94,000

20,000

32,000

52,000

4,300

29,000

33,300

238,300

700

2,500

5,100

7,600

2,400

400

2,800

11,100

4,000

97,000

1,200

6,000

5,300

28,000

6,500

1,200

149,200

1,500

1,300

2,800

152,000

2,225

2,340

2,264

2,020

2,135

1,950

2,025

2,600

2,100

2,174

2,105

2,015

3,160

3,110

3,126

3,650

3,550

3,636

3,182

2,000

1,915

2,385

1,500

1,750

1,900

1,900

1,500

1,892

1,400

1,850

1,595

1,886

1,900

1,650

1,819

2,000

1,950

2,100

2,042

2,500

2,200

2,239

1,998

1,500

3,200

3,000

3,066

3,500

3,300

3,471

3,069

2,050

2,100

1,900

1,400

1,800

2,100

1,600

1,650

2,033

1,400

2,000

1,679

2,026

95,675

51,480

147,155

197,960

44,835

59,475

104,310

11,960

55,650

67,610

517,035

1,471

7,742

15,550

23,292

8,760

1,385

10,145

34,908

8,000

197,245

3,101

9,450

9,625

57,000

13,680

1,950

300,051

2,380

2,405

4,785

304,836

76,000

31,350

107,350

188,000

39,000

67,200

106,200

10,750

63,800

74,550

476,100

1,050

8,000

15,300

23,300

8,400

1,320

9,720

34,070

8,200

203,700

2,280

8,400

9,540

58,800

10,400

1,980

303,300

2,100

2,600

4,700

308,000

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 19 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,

and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 (continued)

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 3, Air-cured

Class 3B, Dark

 Air-cured

 Type 35, One Sucker

 Belt

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 36, Green River

 Belt

 KY

 Type 37, VA Sun-cured

 Belt

 VA

 Total 35-37

Class 4, Cigar Filler

 Type 41, PA Seedleaf

 PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder

 Class 5A, CT Valley

 Binder

 Type 51, CT Valley

 Broadleaf

 CT

 MA

 US

 Class 5B, WI Binder

 Type 54, Southern WI

 WI

 Type 55, Northern WI

 WI

 Total 54-55

 Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper

 Type 61, CT Valley

 Shade-grown

 CT

 MA

 US

All Cigar Types

 Total 41-61

All Tobacco

2,100

510

2,610

1,150

70

3,830

2,100

1,250

850

2,100

1,200

310

1,510

3,610

640

310

950

6,660

428,660

2,200

540

2,740

1,200

70

4,010

2,400

1,500

950

2,450

1,350

400

1,750

4,200

700

300

1,000

7,600

413,010

3,000

2,600

2,922

2,560

1,655

2,790

2,100

1,820

1,840

1,828

2,625

2,145

2,526

2,120

1,385

1,030

1,268

1,992

2,055

2,900

2,500

2,821

2,500

1,500

2,702

2,200

1,800

1,850

1,820

2,500

1,850

2,351

2,041

1,500

1,300

1,440

2,012

2,044

6,300

1,326

7,626

2,944

116

10,686

4,410

2,275

1,564

3,839

3,150

665

3,815

7,654

886

319

1,205

13,269

880,734

6,380

1,350

7,730

3,000

105

10,835

5,280

2,700

1,758

4,458

3,375

740

4,115

8,573

1,050

390

1,440

15,293

844,298

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 20 NASS, USDA

Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and

United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

CA

CO

ID

MI

MN

MT

NE

ND

OH

OR

WA

WY

US

49.9

39.5

210.0

177.0

476.0

55.9

42.0

258.0

1.8

11.0

4.0

36.0

1,361.1

50.0

27.5

207.0

175.0

465.0

52.2

43.4

278.0

1.8

9.4

4.4

34.0

1,347.7

39.5

20.1

24.3

18.1

18.6

19.6

18.1

18.6

20.6

27.4

35.0

18.3

20.4

38.0

23.5

27.6

19.0

20.8

25.0

20.7

21.5

24.0

29.6

40.0

21.5

22.8

37.0

23.5

27.6

18.0

19.9

25.0

20.7

21.0

24.0

29.6

40.0

21.5

22.2

1,971

794

5,103

3,204

8,854

1,096

760

4,799

37

301

140

659

27,718

1,850

646

5,713

3,150

9,254

1,305

898

5,838

43

278

176

731

29,882

 1 Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA

and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

FL

HI

LA

TX

US

461.0

22.7

495.0

44.5

1,023.2

441.0

22.0

490.0

44.0

997.0

38.3

95.1

28.3

38.9

34.7

40.0

95.0

30.0

38.0

36.2

40.0

95.0

30.0

36.9

36.2

17,653

2,159

14,009

1,732

35,553

17,640

2,090

14,700

1,624

36,054

 1 Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 21 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA 4

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 6

 CA 6

 FL 7

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

270

32,000

128,000

1,530

161,800

250

19,500

102,000

210

121,960

520

51,500

230,000

1,740

283,760

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

5,900

46,700

5,900

58,660

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

18,300

21,100

2,150

200

41,000

112,000

1,350

154,550

270

21,000

91,000

220

112,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,500

5,500

8,430

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

220

39,000

137,000

1,300

177,520

250

20,000

115,000

250

135,500

470

59,000

252,000

1,550

313,020

1,400

17,000

25,000

90

5,500

42,000

5,300

52,890

600

2,500

6,600

9,700

3,000

23,000

26,000

1,300

10

1,200

5,760

65

7,035

9

731

4,590

9

5,339

19

1,931

10,350

74

12,374

70

803

1,182

5

198

1,985

236

2,424

23

83

314

420

106

695

801

97

8

1,538

5,040

57

6,643

10

788

4,095

9

4,902

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

956

4

188

1,645

226

2,063

16

94

261

371

114

912

1,026

106

8

1,463

6,165

55

7,691

9

750

5,175

11

5,945

17

2,213

11,340

66

13,636

63

723

1,063

3

184

1,786

212

2,185

23

94

314

431

114

874

988

59

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2

 Net lbs. per

box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;

tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in

FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecasts. 5 Includes seedy. 6

 Includes tangelos and tangors. 7 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04

includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 22 NASS, USDA

Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,

2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1

State

Total Production

2001 2002 2003

Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds

AZ 2

AR 2

CA 2

CO 2

CT 2

GA 2

ID 2

IL 2

IN 2

IA 2

KS 2

KY 2

ME 2

MD 2

MA 2

MI

MN 2

MO 2

NH 2

NJ 2

NM 3

NY

NC

OH 2

OR 2

PA

RI 2

SC 2

TN 2

UT 2

VT 2

VA

WA

WV

WI 2

US

5.4

5.5

520.0

23.0

20.5

9.0

80.0

43.6

53.0

8.8

4.0

8.3

47.0

40.8

39.0

930.0

24.0

41.0

30.0

55.0

6.0

1,000.0

112.0

86.0

142.0

480.0

1.8

6.0

9.0

30.0

41.0

310.0

5,050.0

105.0

62.0

9,428.7

26.2

4.5

470.0

21.0

12.0

10.0

80.0

43.0

40.0

8.5

3.7

5.6

48.5

32.0

33.0

500.0

25.0

38.0

26.5

35.0

2.0

680.0

160.0

70.0

202.0

370.0

2.6

9.0

6.5

7.0

31.0

250.0

5,150.0

95.0

58.0

8,555.6

2.6

5.5

510.0

21.0

21.5

11.0

85.0

42.0

51.0

9.7

4.1

8.4

46.0

37.0

46.0

990.0

26.0

34.0

34.0

45.0

1,200.0

130.0

86.0

120.0

440.0

3.3

6.0

9.0

30.0

38.5

300.0

4,800.0

90.0

69.0

9,351.6

 1 In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 2 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3 No forecast made. Only end of year estimates made.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 23 NASS, USDA

Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

Crop and State

Utilized Production

2001 2002 2003

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 LA

 MS

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TX

 US

Native & Seedling

 AL

 AR

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TX

 US

All Pecans

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TX

 US

10,000

21,000

1,950

3,700

1,200

85,000

3,500

3,000

60,000

2,700

2,000

2,500

50,000

246,550

5,000

650

2,100

25,000

2,200

10,500

1,500

500

18,000

1,500

25,000

91,950

15,000

21,000

2,600

3,700

3,300

110,000

2,200

14,000

4,500

60,000

3,200

20,000

4,000

75,000

338,500

4,000

16,000

1,200

3,800

500

42,000

2,000

2,100

36,000

1,500

1,500

120

20,000

130,720

1,000

500

900

3,000

2,900

4,000

900

400

8,500

80

20,000

42,180

5,000

16,000

1,700

3,800

1,400

45,000

2,900

6,000

3,000

36,000

1,900

10,000

200

40,000

172,900

6,800

23,500

1,800

3,700

500

60,000

5,000

3,500

55,000

2,100

2,000

1,300

45,000

210,200

1,200

1,500

1,600

10,000

2,300

10,000

1,500

400

18,000

200

25,000

71,700

8,000

23,500

3,300

3,700

2,100

70,000

2,300

15,000

5,000

55,000

2,500

20,000

1,500

70,000

281,900

 1 Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 24 NASS, USDA

Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003

State

Total Production

2001 2002 2003

Tons Tons Tons

 AZ 1

 AR 1

 CA

 All Types

 Wine

 Table 2

 Raisin 2 3

 GA 1

 MI

 MO 1

 NY

 NC 1

 OH 1

 OR 1

 PA

 TX 1

 VA 1

 WA

 All Types

 Wine

 Juice

 US

15,500

2,700

5,979,000

3,051,000

713,000

2,215,000

3,200

28,900

2,300

149,000

2,000

6,000

22,800

61,500

9,500

4,200

283,000

100,000

183,000

6,569,600

8,400

5,600

6,721,000

3,149,000

739,000

2,833,000

2,800

42,700

2,900

156,000

2,300

5,800

22,000

53,200

4,700

4,600

332,000

115,000

217,000

7,364,000

8,500

3,900

5,990,000

3,000,000

690,000

2,300,000

3,200

80,000

3,000

210,000

2,800

7,600

25,000

70,000

8,500

4,900

335,000

125,000

210,000

6,752,400

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2 Fresh basis. 3 The Raisin Industry Diversion Program (RID) was not implemented in 2003, but was implemented on the 2001 and 2002 bearing acres

only. No production was realized from these acres. Acres enrolled are as follows: 41,000 for 2001 and 27,000 for 2002.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2002 2003

2002 2003 2002 2003

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Aug

Sep

2,165

2,170

2,380

2,365

1,610

1,500

1,560

1,565

3,745

3,585

3,275

2,820

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 25 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,071.0

79,054.0

4,995.0

450.0

3,240.0

1,395.0

9,580.0

60,468.0

41,845.0

2,909.0

15,714.0

1,459.0

785.0

191.0

1,358.0

3.4

219.0

73,923.0

2,580.0

13,957.9

13,714.0

243.9

1,427.3

21.5

1,922.1

302.7

221.0

1,304.6

15.8

87.8

62.2

1,138.8

97.2

5,299.0

79,066.0

4,601.0

630.0

3,005.0

1,368.0

9,509.0

61,700.0

44,945.0

2,915.0

13,840.0

1,121.0

583.0

96.5

1,315.0

1.6

213.0

73,585.0

2,364.0

13,631.0

13,451.0

180.0

1,364.7

21.2

1,501.2

356.0

246.0

1,278.7

14.6

85.1

64.6

1,114.4

94.0

4,129.0

69,313.0

7,490.0

64,497.0

23,135.0

41,362.0

2,093.0

220.0

3,207.0

281.0

7,299.0

352.0

45,917.0

29,751.0

2,703.0

13,463.0

1,275.0

704.0

175.0

1,296.7

3.1

196.0

72,437.0

2,180.0

12,426.6

12,184.0

242.6

1,361.1

1,023.2

428.7

11.6

1,726.9

279.7

209.0

5.9

0.3

29.3

80.2

1,270.3

15.7

86.1

59.1

1,109.4

18.0

83.5

0.4

4,688.0

71,765.0

64,379.0

23,541.0

40,838.0

2,224.0

2,978.0

339.0

7,851.0

52,839.0

36,541.0

2,869.0

13,429.0

1,085.0

572.0

94.2

1,277.0

1.5

198.0

72,538.0

2,274.0

12,107.4

11,939.0

168.4

1,347.7

997.0

413.0

10.6

1,417.8

334.0

240.0

0.2

28.3

1,251.1

14.3

82.9

60.5

1,093.4

91.0

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 26 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

54.9

130.0

14.0

2.34

3.19

1.86

56.7

12.5

6,578

24.8

50.7

9.5

35.3

38.5

29.4

29.3

1,218

17.9

705

2,561

1,461

1,520

38.0

1,142

665

651

1,342

20.4

34.7

2,055

1,414

1,736

1,517

1,200

1,270

45,000

1,990

85

362

268

271

304

373

108

154

58.9

142.2

2.50

3.34

2.01

65.0

6,624

27.3

51.0

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.7

1,425

3,095

34.0

1,152

696

688

1,257

22.2

36.2

2,044

1,665

37,000

1,898

282

269

320

226,573

9,007,659

104,979

150,962

73,824

77,138

118,628

2,755

210,960

6,955

369,758

3,360

1,619,001

1,145,602

79,450

393,949

1,552,520

6,183.9

12,569

123,450

3,320,490

4,530

297,980

2,749,340

2,489,606

17,208.6

16,530.3

678.3

27,718

35,553

880,734

164

29,974

4,242

2,508

457

7,500

14,400

58,336.6

6,818

459,802

4,206

23,294

17,985

414,317

1,942

12,865

6,100

276,087

10,207,141

160,706

78,523

82,183

144,649

197,251

9,254

400,653

2,336,526

1,707,069

96,637

532,820

1,545,709

6,446.0

3,951,900

2,468,390

2,619,497

17,559.0

17,118.0

441.0

29,882

36,054

844,298

23,603

7,400

53,793.9

4,027

22,305

19,360

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2003 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 27 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,424

1

801

12,374

97

420

70

8,555.6

90.0

19,500.0

7,364.0

103.0

45,900.0

2,575.4

868.5

171.0

15.7

1,090,000

19.5

172,900

303,000

282.0

1,393

2,063

1,026

11,545

106

371

59

9,351.6

90.4

6,752.4

115.0

2,618.1

933.3

190.0

14.7

1,000,000

35.0

281,900

180,000

315.0

1,239

2,185

988

13,636

59

431

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2003 crop year. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 28 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,052,180

31,992,360

2,021,430

182,110

1,311,200

564,540

3,876,930

24,470,790

16,934,250

1,177,240

6,359,300

590,440

317,680

77,300

549,570

1,380

88,630

29,915,900

1,044,100

5,648,620

5,549,920

98,700

577,610

8,700

777,850

122,500

89,440

527,960

6,390

35,530

25,170

460,860

39,340

2,144,450

31,997,220

1,861,980

254,950

1,216,090

553,620

3,848,200

24,969,370

18,188,790

1,179,670

5,600,910

453,660

235,930

39,050

532,170

650

86,200

29,779,110

956,690

5,516,330

5,443,490

72,840

552,280

8,580

607,520

144,070

99,550

517,480

5,910

34,440

26,140

450,990

38,040

1,670,970

28,050,280

3,031,130

26,101,290

9,362,500

16,738,790

847,020

89,030

1,297,840

113,720

2,953,830

142,450

18,582,150

12,039,930

1,093,880

5,448,340

515,980

284,900

70,820

524,760

1,250

79,320

29,314,530

882,220

5,028,920

4,930,740

98,180

550,820

414,080

173,470

4,690

698,860

113,190

84,580

2,390

130

11,860

32,460

514,080

6,350

34,840

23,920

448,960

7,280

33,790

170

1,897,190

29,042,580

26,053,540

9,526,810

16,526,730

900,030

1,205,170

137,190

3,177,220

21,383,410

14,787,780

1,161,060

5,434,580

439,090

231,480

38,120

516,790

610

80,130

29,355,400

920,270

4,899,740

4,831,590

68,150

545,400

403,480

167,140

4,290

573,770

135,170

97,130

80

11,470

506,310

5,790

33,550

24,480

442,490

36,830

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 29 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

2.95

8.16

31.42

5.25

7.15

4.18

2.03

0.70

7.37

1.55

3.18

21.40

2.37

2.59

1.98

1.97

1.36

1.12

0.79

2.87

1.64

1.70

2.55

1.28

0.75

0.73

1.50

45.65

77.89

2.30

1.58

1.95

1.70

1.35

1.42

50.44

2.23

0.10

40.57

30.03

30.32

34.11

41.86

0.12

17.27

3.17

8.93

5.60

7.48

4.51

2.33

7.42

1.71

3.20

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.67

1.60

3.47

2.29

1.29

0.78

0.77

1.41

49.70

81.06

2.29

1.87

41.47

2.13

31.56

30.16

35.87

4,933,040

228,805,080

95,235,350

136,950,420

66,972,010

69,978,420

1,721,880

62,480

9,568,990

176,670

9,392,290

3,048,140

44,061,990

31,178,180

2,162,270

10,721,530

704,210

5,609,940

319,270

56,000

1,506,150

2,050

135,160

74,824,770

1,129,270

3,746,730

3,599,050

147,680

25,145,350

32,253,140

399,490

7,440

1,359,600

192,410

113,760

20,730

3,400

6,530

26,460

3,090

20,856,270

190,780

1,056,600

815,790

18,793,100

880

583,550

2,770

6,011,080

259,273,320

145,790,030

71,234,870

74,555,160

2,099,570

8,947,160

235,060

10,177,050

63,589,820

46,458,800

2,630,030

14,500,980

701,120

5,847,710

1,792,550

67,178,570

1,188,180

3,823,020

3,727,010

96,020

27,108,490

32,707,640

382,970

1,070,610

3,360

24,400

182,660

1,011,740

878,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2003 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 30 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2002 2003 2004

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,199,020

910

726,650

11,225,500

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,880,760

81,680

8,850

6,680,510

93,440

20,820

1,168,180

787,840

155,130

14,200

494,420

17,690

78,430

137,440

255,830

6,960

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

96,160

336,570

53,520

4,241,810

82,010

6,125,670

104,330

1,187,550

846,630

172,370

13,340

453,590

31,750

127,870

81,650

285,760

6,190

1,982,200

896,300

12,370,370

53,520

391,000

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 31 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 corn producing States during

2003. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain

specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are rounded actual field counts from this survey.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,

Selected States, 1999-2003

State Month 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

MN

NE

 All

NE

 Irrigated

NE

 Non-Irrigated

OH

WI

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

25,050

24,950

24,850

24,900

24,350

23,950

23,900

23,900

25,300

25,300

25,300

25,300

26,650

26,700

26,650

26,650

22,800

22,650

22,600

22,600

25,800

25,600

25,600

25,600

18,800

18,700

18,700

18,700

24,000

24,100

24,050

24,050

25,600

25,700

25,700

25,700

25,500

25,450

25,450

25,450

24,500

24,550

24,650

24,650

26,000

25,600

25,650

25,650

27,350

27,350

27,250

27,250

22,800

22,750

22,700

22,750

26,500

26,350

26,350

26,350

17,550

17,500

17,500

17,500

24,450

24,250

23,950

24,100

26,100

25,500

25,550

25,550

25,650

25,550

25,550

25,550

25,500

25,350

25,400

25,400

25,450

25,350

25,250

25,250

27,500

26,750

26,700

26,700

22,200

21,950

22,050

22,050

25,550

25,350

25,350

25,350

18,050

17,800

18,000

18,000

25,550

25,250

25,150

25,100

26,100

26,100

26,100

26,100

25,050

25,050

25,000

25,000

23,900

23,650

23,650

23,650

25,950

25,800

25,800

25,800

26,550

26,150

26,100

26,100

21,650

21,250

21,200

21,200

25,800

25,700

25,650

25,650

16,700

15,950

15,950

15,950

23,700

22,400

22,350

22,350

25,950

25,050

25,250

25,250

26,700

26,700

25,350

25,400

26,700

26,550

28,300

28,650

22,950

22,650

26,550

26,350

18,300

17,850

25,500

25,700

26,150

26,300
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 32 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 soybean producing States

during 2003. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain

specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet,

Selected States, 1999-2003

State Month 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

MN

MO

NE

OH

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

1,917

1,823

1,788

1,787

1,771

1,627

1,622

1,622

2,142

1,914

1,894

1,878

1,612

1,555

1,563

1,565

1,242

1,467

1,508

1,525

1,877

1,880

1,872

1,872

1,699

1,463

1,494

1,494

2,162

1,996

2,020

2,021

1,917

1,786

1,784

1,784

1,830

1,674

1,660

1,660

1,607

1,509

1,507

1,507

1,974

1,769

1,782

1,793

1,795

1,617

1,619

1,619

1,893

1,625

1,685

1,697

2,041

1,932

1,932

1,932

2,003

1,882

1,880

1,869

1,809

1,778

1,787

1,796

1,492

1,433

1,475

1,475

1,424

1,732

1,874

1,921

1,961

1,932

2,003

2,048

1,801

1,834

1,785

1,785

1,952

1,785

1,795

1,802

1,773

1,677

1,680

1,680

1,988

1,828

1,867

1,867

1,688

1,785

1,739

1,715

1,427

1,609

1,681

1,705

1,548

1,517

1,587

1,592

1,593

1,495

1,499

1,492

1,800

1,606

1,786

1,692

1,749

1,629

1,582

1,417

1,144

1,455

1,727

1,642

1,791

1,898
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 33 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during

2003. Randomly selected cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts

and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 1999-2003 1

State Month 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

CA

GA

LA

MS

NC

TX

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

720

700

693

689

689

921

805

779

777

776

596

582

621

636

632

722

743

728

728

728

761

803

767

766

766

623

646

619

621

622

465

446

447

455

456

874

767

755

755

755

760

790

801

800

800

597

631

621

629

629

722

692

674

674

674

657

665

652

650

650

670

724

743

747

747

408

388

397

404

448

747

780

816

756

756

939

902

921

918

918

590

677

651

664

664

625

592

582

588

588

754

696

680

679

679

719

722

696

705

705

441

435

439

445

445

840

763

784

772

772

945

1,041

1,009

1,011

1,011

569

604

591

600

608

663

756

749

742

742

802

783

768

767

767

636

629

560

567

564

536

511

520

497

497

798

755

973

945

559

646

681

778

837

824

628

630

465

431

 1 Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened

bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet or row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 34 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 35 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 36 NASS, USDA

September Weather Summary

Midwestern soil moisture shortages persisted through month’s end roughly north of a line from Kansas City,

Missouri, to Detroit, Michigan, despite a period of locally heavy rainfall beginning September 10. Though the rain

was welcomed across the northern and western Corn Belt, it came too late to aid drought-stressed corn and

soybeans. Elsewhere in the Midwest, early-month downpours caused local flooding in the Ohio Valley, followed

by a spell of cool, mostly dry weather. However, heavy rain returned to much of the eastern Corn Belt toward the

end of September, causing minor fieldwork delays. A similar weather pattern prevailed across the South, where

humid, showery conditions in early September yielded to cool, favorably dry weather. Before widespread showers

returned to the South in late September, the only interruptions in an otherwise favorable period for summer crop

maturation and harvesting were persistently heavy rains in Deep South Texas and the September 18-19 passage of

Hurricane Isabel through the southern Mid-Atlantic States. Farther west, the same storm system that produced

rainfall in the upper Midwest also delivered beneficial moisture to the Plains prior to mid-month. However, the

mid- to late-September return of mostly dry, occasionally hot weather reduced soil moisture for winter wheat

germination and establishment. Drought concerns were greatest on the northern and central High Plains, although

newly planted wheat across portions of the southern Plains was also in need of rain. The month opened and closed

on a very warm note from the Rockies westward, helping to boost September temperatures as much as 5 degrees F

above normal. Between warm spells, a winter-like storm system crossed the West, sparking heavy rainfall and

some high-elevation snows from the Four Corners region northward into Wyoming. Beneficial precipitation also

fell prior to mid-September in winter wheat areas of the Northwest, although unfavorably dry weather returned

thereafter.

September Crop Summary

The western half of the Nation remained mostly dry, with occasional scattered showers doing little to alleviate

drought conditions. Early in the month, the Great Plains was split between above normal temperatures in the north

and milder temperatures in the south. However, towards the end of the month, temperatures were consistently

below normal across the region, as the first freeze of the season hit the northern Great Plains just after mid-month. 

At that time, the northern and central Rocky Mountains also experienced its first freeze. In the Pacific Northwest,

the month began with very high temperatures, but the region cooled off around the middle of the month before

returning to above normal temperatures during the last week. In the Southwest, temperatures were above normal

throughout most of the month. The southern part of Corn Belt experienced moderate to heavy rainfall early in the

month, but was mostly dry, with below-normal temperatures, through the end of the month. The northern part of

the Corn Belt was mostly hot and dry, but experienced moderate precipitation just before mid-month and milder

temperatures late in the month. Mississippi Delta growers saw light to moderate rainfall scattered throughout the

month, with normal to below-normal temperatures. The Southeast had adequate rainfall, heavier toward the end of

the month, and below-normal temperatures in the middle of the month but above-normal temperatures at the

beginning and end of the month. In the middle Atlantic Coast States, temperatures were mild through the middle of

the month, then above-normal in the latter half. Moderate to heavy precipitation fell throughout the month, with

especially heavy showers just after mid-month in the wake of Hurricane Isabel. The Ohio Valley saw moderate

rainfall with normal temperatures through most of the month. The Northeast also experienced moderate rainfall

through most of the month and below-normal temperatures during the first half of the month, but above normal

temperatures in the second half.

As of September 7, ninety-five percent of the corn crop had reached the dough stage, 1 percentage point behind last

year and the 5-year average. On September 21, ninety-five percent of the crop was dented, the same as last year at

that time, but 1 point behind normal. At mid-month, 40 percent of the crop was mature, compared with 43 percent

last year and 49 percent for the 5-year average. At that time, 7 percent of the acreage had been harvested, 2 points

behind last year and the average. By the end of the month, 79 percent of the acreage was mature and 18 percent of

the acreage had been harvested, both 1 percentage point behind last year and 5 points behind normal. At the

beginning of the month, the crop was well behind normal progress in the Ohio Valley, and development did not

accelerate, as the region experienced heavy rainfall through most of the month. By month’s end, maturation and

harvest progress was over 1 week behind the normal pace. In the Corn Belt, the crop began the month well behind

the average denting pace, but advanced rapidly during the month to near average. Development progressed well in

the Great Plains, but harvest fell behind by the end of the month as growers focused their efforts on planting winter

wheat. Nationwide condition ratings early in the month deteriorated further, but as harvest began later in the

month, condition of the crop improved.

At the beginning of the month, 83 percent of the sorghum crop was headed, 50 percent was turning color, and

27 percent was mature. Heading was 2 weeks behind the normal pace and coloring and maturity were 1 week or

more behind normal. By mid-month, 95 percent was headed, 69 percent was turning color, 40 percent was mature,

and 29 percent had been harvested, all still well behind normal. By the end of the month, 86 percent of the crop

was turning color, 57 percent was mature, and 36 percent was harvested, about 2 weeks behind normal for all

development stages. Throughout the month, the Texas crop fell further behind in all stages of development, ending

the month at over 4 weeks behind in coloring and maturity and over 3 weeks behind their normal harvest pace. The
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 37 NASS, USDA

Kansas, Illinois, and Nebraska crops also lagged behind their normal harvest progress by 1 to 2 weeks. Crop

condition remained depressed throughout the month, with the worst condition ratings in the Great Plains but much

better conditions in the Mississippi Delta.

Twenty-two percent of the rice crop had been harvested by the beginning of September, compared with 23 percent

last year and 24 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest accelerated after mid-month in the interior Delta, ending

the month near the normal pace. By September 28, sixty-nine percent of the Nation’s crop had been harvested, the

same as last year but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was almost complete in Texas and Louisiana, at

98 and 96 percent, respectively.

As of September 28, seventy-eight percent of the soybean crop was dropping leaves and 17 percent of the acreage

had been harvested, both 3 points behind the 5-year average. During the first half of the month, the crop progressed

slowly through the dropping leaves stage but gained momentum during the middle of the month. However, the crop

in Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, and Ohio finished the month over 1 week behind the normal pace for dropping

leaves. Harvest of the late maturing crop progressed slowly across most of the Nation, as wet weather after

mid-month kept some growers out of the fields in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley, while Great Plains

producers focused on planting winter wheat. Producers in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley were 1 week or

more behind their normal harvest pace. Crop condition continued to deteriorate throughout the month, with the

largest decreases in the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Great Plains.

By mid-month, the peanut harvest had begun in most States, but at just 3 percent complete, was 4 percentage points

behind last year and 5 points behind the normal pace. By the month’s end, harvest had progressed to 22 percent

complete, 2 points ahead of last year but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Growers in Florida and Alabama made

the most progress during the month, with over 40 percent of their crop harvested. Texas producers, at 4 percent

harvested, were over 2 weeks behind their normal harvest pace. Nationwide crop condition was mostly unchanged

through the first half of the month but declined in the second half, mostly due to Hurricane Isabel’s effects on North

Carolina’s and Virginia’s crop.

At the beginning of the month, 24 percent of the cotton crop had open bolls, 14 percentage points behind last year at

that time and 15 points behind the average. By mid-month, bolls opening had progressed to 45 percent, 16 points

behind last year and 19 points behind normal. By September 28, seventy percent of fields had open bolls, compared

to 83 percent last year and 84 percent for the 5-year average. Eight percent of the crop had been harvested as of

September 14, compared with 10 percent last year by that date and 11 percent for the 5-year average. By the end of

the month, 15 percent of the acreage had been harvested, 2 points behind last year and 7 points behind the 5-year

average. Nationwide, bolls opened over 1 week behind the normal pace, with Mississippi, Missouri, South

Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas more than 2 weeks behind. Harvest was also 1 week behind for the Nation, and

2 weeks or more behind normal in Alabama, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. Crop

condition declined in the first half of the month but stabilized during the second half, despite some damage in North

Carolina and Virginia, due to Hurricane Isabel.

By mid-month, 16 percent of next year’s expected winter wheat acreage had been planted, the same as last year but

2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. As the month ended, acreage planted had increased to 49 percent,

2 points ahead of last year and 9 points ahead of the normal pace. Emergence of the crop was 20 percent by

September 28, compared with 21 percent for the same date last year and 17 percent for the 5-year average. Planting

progressed ahead of normal across most of the Nation, with the Great Plains States progressing well ahead of

normal. Emergence of the crop was also ahead of normal in the central and northern Great Plains, while the rest of

the Nation was at or slightly behind normal.

As of September 7, ninety-seven percent of the spring wheat and barley crops had been harvested. The spring

wheat harvest was 15 percentage points ahead of last year and 12 points ahead of the 5-year average, while the

barley harvest was 18 points ahead of last year’s pace and 10 points ahead of normal. Warm, dry weather across the

major producing areas in late August and early September allowed harvest to progress well ahead of normal in all

States.

Corn for grain: Based on administrative data from FSA, updates to planted acreage were made in several States. 

However, total planted acreage remains unchanged at the National level. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for

grain was also revised in a number of States and is now forecast at 71.8 million acres, down 50,000 acres from

September but up 4 percent from 2002. 

The October 1 corn objective yield data indicate the highest number of stalks on record for the combined seven

objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The October objective

yield forecasted ears per acre are also at a record high, 4 percent above the previous high set in 2000 and 6 percent

above last year. As of September 28, seventy-nine percent of the corn acreage was mature in the 18 major cornproducing States. This compares with 80 percent for last year and 84 percent for the average. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 38 NASS, USDA

Corn harvested for grain was progressing slightly behind last year as 18 percent of the crop had been combined by

September 28. This is behind both last year and the average of 19 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Forty-nine

percent of the crop was rated good to excellent as of September 28, three points above the first of September and

six points above a year ago.

At the beginning of the month, the crop was well behind the average denting pace in the Corn Belt, but advanced

rapidly and ended the month near the average. In the Ohio Valley, the crop began the month well behind normal

progress and development did not accelerate, as the region experienced heavy rainfall through most of the month. 

Nationwide, maturation and harvest was over 1 week behind the normal pace by month’s end. Development

progressed well in the Great Plains, but harvest fell behind by the end of the month.

Sorghum: Production is forecast at 401 million bushels, down 2 percent from last month but up 8 percent from last

year. Based on October 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is 51.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last

month but up 0.3 bushels from 2002. Yield increases from last month are expected in 4 of the top 11 producing

States; Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, and Nebraska. These increases are offset by declines in Missouri,

Oklahoma, and Texas. Area planted to sorghum for all purposes is estimated at 9.51 million acres, down 3 percent

from August and 1 percent from 2002. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 7.85 million acres, down 2 percent

from last month but 8 percent above last year.

As of September 28, harvest was underway in the top 11 sorghum-producing States. During early September,

rainfall and cool temperatures enhanced crop conditions in the southern Great Plains. However, the hot and dry

conditions returned later in the month. In Texas, harvest is complete in the southern and central areas, but

continues in the Plains. Nationwide, the sorghum crop was 57 percent mature, trailing last year by 12 percentage

points and the 5-year average by 18 points. Twenty-three percent of the crop was rated good to excellent as of

September 28, which is 1 point below the comparable week last month.

Rice: Production is forecast at 197 million cwt, down fractionally from September and down 6 percent from 2002. 

Harvested acres, at 2.98 million, are unchanged from September but down 7 percent from 2002. As of October 1,

the U.S. all rice yield is forecast at a record high 6,624 pounds per acre. This forecast yield is down 31 pounds

from September but up 46 pounds from the current record high yield set in 2002. Record high yields are forecast

for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Missouri.

As of September 28, the U.S. rice harvest was 69 percent complete, 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. 

Harvest was nearly complete in Louisiana and Texas. All Delta States were within 3 percentage points of their

normal harvest progress. California rice harvest, at 25 percent complete, was 4 percentage points behind the 5-year

average.

Soybeans: Based on administrative data from FSA, updates to planted acreage were made in several States. Area

planted at 73.6 million acres, is down 68,000 acres from the August estimate and down less than 1 percent from

2002. Area for harvest is forecast at 72.5 million acres, down 88,000 acres from September, but up fractionally

from the 2002 acreage. The October objective yield pod counts are forecasted down 2 percent from last month and

6 percent below last year. This is lowest pod count since 1997 for the combined seven States (Illinois, Indiana,

Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio). Pod counts are considerably below last year in Illinois, Iowa,

Minnesota, and Missouri while counts are higher than 2002 in Indiana, Nebraska, and Ohio.

As of September 28, seventy-eight percent of the crop had dropped leaves. This is 3 percentage points behind the

5-year average. Soybeans were most advanced in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, where 95 percent or

more of the crop had already dropped leaves. Soybean harvest was progressing behind normal as of September 28,

with 17 percent of the acreage harvested, 3 percentage points behind the average. However, harvest progress was

ahead of normal in Arkansas, Minnesota, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. As of September 28,

thirty-nine percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, 6 points lower than the August 31 rating and

4 percentage points below the same week in 2002.

Sunflowers: The first sunflower production forecast for 2003 is 2.62 billion pounds, up 5 percent from 2002 but

23 percent below 2001. Area planted at 2.36 million acres, is up 2 percent from the June estimate but down

8 percent from 2002. Sunflower farmers expect to harvest 2.27 million acres, up 1 percent from June and up

4 percent from the 2002 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,152 pounds, is 10 pounds more than the 2002

yield.

Higher yields are expected in 6 of the 7 major sunflower growing States. As of October 1, growers in Colorado,

Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Texas are expecting higher yields this year. In North Dakota, the

yield is forecast at 1,200 pounds per acre, down 100 pounds from last year. As of September 28, harvest was just

underway in Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota at the end of September.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 39 NASS, USDA

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.95 billion pounds, down 1 percent from last month but up 19 percent

from 2002. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.28 million acres, unchanged from the September estimate but

down 2 percent from 2002. Yields are expected to average 3,095 pounds, 26 pounds below last month but up

534 pounds from 2002.

Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.63 billion

pounds, unchanged from last month but 38 percent above last year. Expected area for harvest, at 849,000 acres, is

unchanged from last month but up 8 percent from the previous year. Yield in the four-State area is expected to

average 3,095 pounds per acre, unchanged from September but 662 pounds above 2002. As of September 28,

peanut condition in Alabama was rated 66 percent good to excellent. Florida peanuts were rated 85 percent good to

excellent and Georgia peanuts were rated 76 percent good to excellent. Alabama’s peanut harvest stood at

44 percent complete on September 28, eleven percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Florida’s harvest, at

45 percent complete, was 7 percentage points ahead, but Georgia, at 26 percent complete, lagged behind the 5-year

average by 2 percentage points.

The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 372 million pounds, down 3 percent from September but up

13 percent from 2002. Area for harvest is expected to total 133,000 acres, unchanged from last month, but down

15 percent from the previous year. Yield is forecast at 2,800 pounds, down 75 pounds from September but up

700 pounds from last year. North Carolina peanut condition was rated 51 percent good on September 28, while

peanuts in Virginia were rated 46 percent good to excellent. Prior to Hurricane Isabel, North Carolina peanuts were

rated 84 percent good to excellent, while those in Virginia were rated 78 percent good to excellent. North

Carolina’s peanut harvest was 3 percent complete on September 28, six percentage points behind the 5-year

average, and Virginia, at 10 percent complete, was 11 points behind the 5-year average.

The Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 952 million pounds,

down 2 percent from September and down 12 percent from 2002. The region’s acreage for harvest, at

295,000 acres, is unchanged from September but 17 percent below the 2002 level. Yield is forecast to average

3,225 pounds per acre for the region, 82 pounds below last month but 178 pounds above 2002. As of

September 28, peanuts in Oklahoma were rated 50 percent good to excellent, while those in Texas were rated

69 percent good to excellent. Peanut harvest in Texas stood at 4 percent complete on September 28,

thirteen percentage points behind the 5-year average. Oklahoma’s harvest was 7 percent complete, 3 percentage

points behind normal.

As announced in April, the 2002 peanut crop would be open for revisions and subsequently published in the

October Crop Production report. Review of survey and administrative data indicated no revisions were necessary.

Canola: The first canola production forecast for 2003 is 1.55 billion pounds, down slightly from 2002. Area

planted at 1.12 million acres, is down 7 percent from the June estimate and down 23 percent from 2002. Canola

farmers expect to harvest 1.09 million acres, down 7 percent from June and down 15 percent from 2002. The

October yield forecast, at 1,425 pounds per acre, is 207 pounds above last year. North Dakota's yield at

1,400 pounds per acre, is up 170 pounds from 2002. Adequate moisture boosted the Minnesota yield to

1,900 pounds per acre, more than double last year.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 11.9 million acres, is down 1 percent from the previous month and

2 percent less than 2002. A significant number of cotton fields in the southern High Plains area of Texas were left

unharvestable after one of the worst late season hail storms passed through that area. American-Pima harvested

acreage, at 168,400 acres, is unchanged from last month but down 31 percent from a year ago. 

In the Southeastern States, early September weather was hot and humid resulting in stress on shallow rooted fields. 

Defoliation was just underway, but most of the region was two to three weeks late in maturity. Toward the middle

of the month, North Carolina and Virginia cotton growing areas were hit by Hurricane Isabel, which brought

intensive winds and rain. There were some losses from bolls being blown off and lodging of plants. After the

hurricane, an additional cold front brought more rain resulting in flooded cotton fields. Concerns with boll rot

increased. Harvesting began south of the Carolinas toward the end of the month, but was limited due to rains. 

Objective yield data show below average boll counts in North Carolina but above average boll counts in Georgia.

Harvesting in the Delta region was limited to extreme southern areas at the beginning of the month. Ideal growing

conditions benefitted the crop during the middle of the month. Defoliation began on early planted fields in

Tennessee and Missouri, but later planted fields were slow to mature as cooler temperatures arrived. Toward the

end of the month the harvest expanded throughout the region, but wet weather limited progress. Objective yield

measurements show Mississippi’s boll counts are higher than any of the previous 15 years. Louisiana’s boll counts

are the highest since 1992. The boll counts in Arkansas, however, are the lowest since 1999.

Texas growers in the southern High Plains suffered another setback as severe weather destroyed or adversely

affected significant cotton acreage. Harvest activities in central Texas and the Gulf Coast were interrupted by
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 40 NASS, USDA

intermittent showers throughout the month. Growers were concerned that late cotton would be unable to finish

setting bolls as a series of cold fronts dropped temperatures sharply. The cotton harvest expanded in the Panhandle

toward the end of September. The Oklahoma harvest was just underway toward month’s end. Data from objective

yield samples show Texas boll counts are lower than three of the previous four years. 

The upland cotton harvest was underway in southwestern Arizona. Harvest had not started in California, but when

it does, it will be the latest start in any of the previous 15 years. San Joaquin Valley growers halted irrigation to

hasten maturity. Data from the objective yield plots indicate California’s boll count is the third highest in the

15-year data series, surpassed only by the previous two seasons.

American-Pima production is forecast at 441,000 bales, up 2 percent from September, but 35 percent less than last

year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,257 pounds per acre, up 30 pounds from the September forecast but 85 pounds

below the record high yield established in 2002. California’s American-Pima production is forecast at

380,000 bales, up 3 percent from last month, but 37 percent less than last year. Harvest is underway in Arizona, but

has not started in the other American-Pima producing States.

All cotton ginned totaled 2,003,850 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 1,656,350 running bales

ginned prior to the same date last year and 2,071,700 running bales ginned in 2001.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Hay production, for alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures, is forecast at 78.5 million tons, up

less than 1 percent from the August forecast and 6 percent above 2002. Yields are expected to average 3.34 tons

per acre, up 0.03 ton from the August forecast and 0.15 ton from last year. Harvested area is 23.5 million acres,

unchanged from the August estimate but up 2 percent from 2002.

The yield in all but 8 States is the same or above last year’s level as most areas received adequate moisture. Dry

conditions in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin hindered growth and development while providing excellent

harvesting conditions. After the wet summer in the Ohio Valley, growers encountered drier conditions during

September allowing more opportunities to harvest. In the Southwest, conditions improved but the yield remained

below last year due to the hot, dry weather early in the growing season.

Other Hay: Production is forecast at 82.2 million tons, virtually the same as August but up 7 percent from 2002. 

Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 2.01 tons, the same as the August forecast but

0.15 ton above last year. If realized, this will be a record high yield. Harvested acreage is estimated at 40.8 million,

unchanged from the August estimate but down 1 percent from 2002.

Record high yields are forecast for Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, and

West Virginia due to abundant rainfall during the growing season. Abundant rainfall in the Ohio Valley contributed

to higher yields than last year. In the central Great Plains, the lack of rainfall in August stressed crops and limited

yields, but they remain higher than last year. In Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi, wet conditions delayed

harvesting until later than normal.

Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 23.6 million cwt for 2003, down 3 percent from the

August forecast and 21 percent below last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.42 million acres, the same as

August but down 18 percent from last year. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,665 pounds per acre, a decrease

of 52 pounds from the August forecast and 71 pounds below last year. 

Since August, production forecasts have decreased 29 percent in Colorado, 6 percent in both Michigan and

Wyoming, 5 percent in California, and 2 percent in North Dakota. Higher production is forecast in New York and

Texas, up 10 percent and 8 percent, respectively. 

Production is expected to be lower than last year in 11 of the 18 producing States. These decreases are mostly a

result of warm, dry conditions in many of the major producing States. Washington and Colorado are down

46 percent from last year. Michigan expects a 42 percent reduction and Oregon a 25 percent decrease. North

Dakota is down 18 percent and Idaho, California, and Minnesota all expect reductions of 16 percent. Decreases in

other States are 15 percent in Nebraska, 10 percent in Montana, and 5 percent in Wisconsin. In Michigan, warm,

dry conditions during September helped the crop to dry down but reduced yields. Good quality during harvest has

been reported. Minnesota’s harvest was 73 percent complete as of September 28. Harvest of Nebraska’s crop is

moving quickly with average to above average yields. North Dakota’s harvest began ahead of schedule in late

August with 76 percent of the crop harvested by September 28. Production is back up in Utah following a drought

reduced crop in 2002. New York and New Mexico production are both up 32 percent from last year. Production is

also up from last year in Kansas and Wyoming by 17 and 15 percent, respectively. South Dakota and Texas expect

increased production as well. The Texas crop is in good condition so far this year. The Wyoming crop is better

than last year with growers rating crop condition as mostly good.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 41 NASS, USDA

Winter Potatoes: Production for 2003 is revised to 4.03 million cwt, down 3 percent from the April forecast and

4 percent below 2002. Harvested area of 14,300 acres in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is

3 percent below the April 1 forecast and 9 percent less than last year. The average yield of 282 cwt per acre is up

1 cwt from the April forecast and 14 cwt above 2002. California’s production, at 2.64 million cwt, is 8 percent

above last season. Florida’s production of 1.39 million cwt is down 22 percent from a year ago.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 844 million pounds, 2 percent above the September 1 forecast

but down 4 percent from 2002. If realized, this will be the smallest crop since 1908. Area for harvest is forecast at

413,010 acres, down less than 1 percent from last month and down 4 percent from 2002. Yields for 2003 are

expected to average 2,044 pounds per acre, 36 pounds higher than the September forecast but 11 pounds below a

year ago. Yields in North Carolina, the leading tobacco producing State, are expected to average 1,946 pounds per

acre, 6 pounds higher than last month but 121 pounds lower than last year. In Kentucky, the second leading State,

yields are expected to average 2,179 pounds per acre, 101 pounds above the September forecast and up 172 pounds

from a year ago. Tobacco growers in Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee expect higher

yields than a month ago. In Connecticut and Virginia, lower yields are expected. The remaining States are

unchanged from the September forecast.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 476 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from last month and

8 percent below 2002. Growers plan to harvest 238,300 acres in 2003, down less than 1 percent from last month

and 3 percent below last year. Yields are forecast to average 1,998 pounds per acre, 2 pounds above the September

forecast but 107 pounds less than the previous year. As harvest nears completion in North Carolina, yields in the

Border Belt region are reported to be somewhat better than previously expected. Virginia flue-cured producers

anticipate lower yields due to damage caused by heavy rains and high winds from Hurricane Isabel. Additional

yield losses occurred when a severe thunderstorm brought up to 5 inches of rain in some areas. Also, excessive

rainfall from May through July caused a reduction in acres harvested.

Burley production is expected to total 303 million pounds, up 4 percent from the September forecast and 1 percent

higher than last year. Burley growers plan to harvest 149,200 acres, down 6 percent from a year ago. Yields are

expected to average 2,033 pounds per acre, 86 pounds above the September forecast and up 141 pounds from 2002. 

Kentucky, the largest burley producing State, forecasts production at 204 million pounds, up 5 percent from the

September forecast and 3 percent above last year. Adequate soil moisture conditions throughout September in

Kentucky helped to improve yield prospects for later planted tobacco. The housed tobacco crop is reported to be

curing well in both Kentucky and Tennessee.

Fire-cured production is expected to total 34.1 million pounds, up 2 percent from the September forecast but

2 percent below last year. Growers plan to harvest 11,100 acres in 2003, down 1 percent from last month but

1 percent above a year ago. The yield is expected to average 3,069 pounds per acre, up 92 pounds from the

September forecast but 113 pounds lower than the previous year. 

Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production is expected to total 4.70 million pounds, 3 percent above the September

forecast but 2 percent below the previous year. A total of 2,800 acres is expected to be harvested this year, down

7 percent from 2002. Average yields, at 1,679 pounds per acre, are up 47 pounds from the September forecast and

84 pounds higher than last year. 

Dark air-cured production is expected to total 10.8 million pounds, up 5 percent from last month and 1 percent

higher than 2002. Growers plan to harvest 4,010 acres in 2003, up 5 percent from last year. Yields are forecast to

average 2,702 pounds per acre, 121 pounds above the September forecast but 88 pounds below last season. 

All cigar type production is forecast to total 15.3 million pounds, up 2 percent from the September forecast and

15 percent above last year. Growers of cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 7,600 acres, 1 percent above last month’s

forecast and 14 percent higher than a year ago. Overall yield is expected to average 2,012 pounds per acre, up

15 pounds from the September forecast and 20 pounds above 2002.

Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at 29.9 million tons, 3 percent below the September forecast but 8 percent

above last year's production. Growers in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1.35 million acres. 

This is virtually unchanged from the September forecast but 1 percent below last year. The yield is forecast at

22.2 tons per acre, 0.6 ton below the September forecast but 1.8 tons above 2002.

Condition ratings for the Minnesota and North Dakota sugarbeet crops declined during September, primarily due to

continued dry weather. In Montana, improved availability of irrigation water has resulted in greatly improved

yields compared to last year. Most States began harvest near the end of September. In both Minnesota and North

Dakota, 11 percent of the crop was harvested as of September 28, slightly behind the 5-year average in each State.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 42 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Production is forecast at 36.1 million tons, virtually unchanged from the September forecast but

1 percent above last year. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 997,000 acres for sugar and seed during the

2003 crop year, up fractionally from last month but 3 percent below last year's final harvested acres. Yield is

forecast at 36.2 tons per acre, unchanged from the September forecast but 1.5 tons above 2002.

Sugarcane ripeners were applied on time in Louisiana, and as of September 28, harvest was 5 percent complete. 

Weather conditions there have been favorable for growth and remain favorable for harvest. In Florida, dry weather

during the first half of September, followed by mostly rainy conditions during the last half, aided growth and

development of the crop. Growers there expect to begin harvesting around mid-October. The Texas Rio Grande

Valley experienced some heavy and badly needed rain during September; however, yield prospects still declined

from last month. Weather in Hawaii remained relatively dry.

Grapefruit: The initial U.S. grapefruit forecast is 2.19 million tons, 6 percent above last season’s final utilization. 

Florida’s grapefruit forecast is 42.0 million boxes (1.79 million tons), 9 percent above the previous season. If

realized, this will be the second lowest utilized production since the 1989-90 freeze affected season. White

grapefruit are forecast at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), 5 percent above last season. Average fruit per tree is

25 percent above the previous season and fruit size is expected to be above average although smaller than last

season. The forecast for colored grapefruit utilization, at 25.0 million boxes (1.06 million tons), is 11 percent above

last season’s final utilization. Average fruit per tree is 30 percent above last season and is above the previous

5-season average. Fruit sizes are above average but not as large as last season. Bearing trees for both types of

Florida grapefruit continue to decline as a result of pressure from disease, abandonment, and urbanization.

Grapefruit production in California is forecast at 5.50 million boxes (1.84 million tons), 2 percent below last

season’s final utilization. The 2003-04 grapefruit season is off to a good start with ideal weather conditions in the

desert area for grapefruit production. The October 1 grapefruit forecast for Texas is 5.30 million boxes

(212,000 tons), down 6 percent from the previous season. Recent rains have improved the outlook for the

2003-04 season. Arizona’s October 1 forecast, at 90,000 boxes (3,000 tons), is 31 percent below last season’s final

utilized production. Good size and quality are expected for the 2003-04 crop. Arizona’s grapefruit producing areas

continue to be under pressure from urbanization.

Lemons: The initial forecast for the 2003-04 U.S. lemon crop is 988,000 tons, down 4 percent from last season’s

final utilization. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (874,000 tons), 4 percent below the

2002-03 season. Harvest of 2002-03 crop continues, with new crop harvest expected to begin later this fall. 

Overall new crop fruit size appears to be smaller than normal. Arizona’s 2003-04 lemon forecast is 3.00 million

boxes (114,000 tons), unchanged from the previous season. Harvest is underway. Fair quality and good sizes are

reported.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2003-04 tangelo forecast is 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), 45 percent less than last season’s

utilized production and the smallest harvest since the 1965-66 season. Average fruit per tree is down 52 percent. 

However, the light fruit set is expected to result in larger than average fruit size at harvest. Fruit droppage is

expected to be less than average.

Temples: Florida’s Temples are initially forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season,

8 percent above last season’s final utilization and, if attained, the third lowest crop since the freeze affected

1989-90 harvest. Average fruit per tree is 22 percent above last season; however, bearing trees are down 9 percent. 

Fruit size and the rate of growth are above average but not as large as last season. Droppage rates are expected to

average near 10.5 percent.

Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 431,000 tons, up 16 percent from last season’s final

utilized production of 371,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop is forecast at 6.60 million boxes (314,000 tons),

20 percent above last season’s utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Bearing tree numbers are down but average fruit

per tree is up from last season. Droppage on early varieties is expected to be near average while late Honey variety

droppage is expected to be slightly below average. California’s tangerine forecast is 2.50 million boxes

(94,000 tons), unchanged from last season’s final utilization. Acreage increased for the fourth year in a row in

response to higher returns for Mandarins. Arizona’s initial tangerine forecast is 600,000 boxes (23,000 tons), up

40 percent from last season. Fruit size is expected to be normal and quality expected to be good.

Florida Citrus: September continued the typical summer weather pattern of moderate to hot temperatures and

high humidity but with above average rainfall. To date, rainfall accumulations for the calender year are above

normal levels in all areas. Some reporting stations received twice the monthly average or more during September. 

Coastal areas received more rainfall than interior areas. Tropical Storm Henri brought heavy rainfall but no wind at

the beginning of the month. Dryer weather prevailed during mid-September but a weak tropical system brought

large amounts of rainfall to southern growing areas during the last week of September. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 43 NASS, USDA

Citrus crops in all areas made excellent progress with no major problems reported. Trees are in excellent condition

with multiple flushes of new growth observed. Growers report a small amount of fruit splitting, which is typical for

this time of the season. Good to excellent fruit sizes are reported. Fresh fruit crops were sprayed regularly to hold

down insect populations. Some crops on the East Coast received weekly treatments. Growers and caretakers

conducted routine summer cultural practices including weed and cover crop control and dead tree removal and

replacement. In the flat woods and coastal areas, ditches and canals were maintained to move excess water out of

the groves and away from tree roots. By mid-month, packinghouses received the first varieties to be packed which

included Navel, Ambersweet, and Hamlin oranges, white and colored grapefruit, and Fallglo tangerines. Several

processors opened to receive packinghouse eliminations only.

Texas Citrus: Grapefruit harvest has not begun for the 2003-04 season but some early season oranges are being

harvested. Recent rains have improved the outlook for the new season. Growers are busy with routine cultural

practices including weed control, pesticide applications, and irrigation where needed.

California Citrus: Old crop Valencia orange harvest remained slow throughout the month with overall quality

declining as the end of the season drew near. New crop Navels were developing and sizing well, especially in citrus

groves with a light fruit set. Harvest is expected to begin in early November. The new crop lemon harvest began in

the Coachella Valley, with good quality reported. The Marsh Ruby grapefruit harvest continued in the south coast

area with a decrease in quality as the season nears completion.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers conducted cultural activities that included weed control,

fungicide applications, and irrigation of trees and vines. Stone fruit harvest continued throughout the month but

began winding down as the end of the season approached. Varieties picked and packed included September Red

and Arctic Snow nectarines, September Sun and September Snow peaches, Angeleno plums, and French prunes. In

some areas large portions of the prune crop were screened out for size. Picking and packing of table grapes

continued in the San Joaquin Valley, with Crimson and Thompson Seedless the primary varieties harvested. Decay

and splits were observed in some grapes due to recent rainfall. Plastic covers were placed over vines in a few late

season table grape vineyards to protect the fruit from potential rain damage. The harvest of natural raisins was

ongoing throughout the month. Approximately 95 percent of the raisin crop had been picked, 25 percent was on

trays drying, and about 40 percent of the trays rolled by month's end. Fruit, in dried on the vine raisin vineyards,

were drying steadily. Wine and juice grape harvests remained active throughout the State.

Harvest of Granny Smith, Fuji, and Gala apple varieties continued. Early Foothill and Wonderful pomegranates,

Hosui Asian pears, and Kadota figs were harvested. Kiwifruit and pineapple quince neared maturity by mid-month. 

Strawberry plantings advanced rapidly under ideal weather conditions. Irrigation, weeding, and insect pest control

treatments were underway in strawberry fields. Olive growers continued to spray for olive fruit fly control. Olive

harvest commenced in a few locations by the middle of September. Bartlett pear harvest was active in Lake

County. Almond harvest continued throughout the month but was winding down by the end of September. Walnut

harvesting was underway throughout the State by month's end but at a relatively slow pace. Pistachio harvest began

in parts of Tulare County during the last week of September. Irrigation and treatments to control insect pests were

underway in nut orchards as needed.

Apples: The final production forecast for the 2003 crop year is 9.35 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the

August 1 forecast and 9 percent above 2002. Of the 7 States making October 1 production forecasts, Michigan and

New York increased from the August 1 forecast, Pennsylvania and Virginia remained unchanged, while North

Carolina, Washington, and West Virginia decreased from August. The Eastern and Central apple producing regions

are forecasting increases in production from the August 1 forecast, while the Western region is forecasting a

decrease. Compared to 2002, production increases in the Eastern and Central States more than offset decreases in

the Western States. 

The Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, WA) production is forecast at 5.57 billion pounds, down 2 percent

from the August 1 forecast and 7 percent below 2002. Washington, which makes up 51 percent of the U.S.

forecast, is expecting 4.80 billion pounds of apples. Washington is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and

7 percent below last year. There are reports in Washington of spotty bloom and lower production in some of the

new varieties due to the alternate bearing cycle. Some scattered frost and hail damage are reported. All of the other

Western States are carried forward from the August 1 forecast. 

Production in the Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, WV) is forecast

at 2.45 billion pounds, up 7 percent from the August 1 forecast and 36 percent above last season. Production from

the August 1 forecast increased 18 percent in New York, remained unchanged in Pennsylvania and Virginia, and

decreased 7 percent in North Carolina and 5 percent in West Virginia. A wet summer, along with sunny days and

cool nights, contributed to excellent fruit size and good color in New York. There is some tree loss from Hurricane

Isabel in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. All other Eastern States are carried forward from the August 1

forecast. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 44 NASS, USDA

Production in the Central States (AR, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, WI) is forecast at 1.33 billion

pounds, up 2 percent from the August 1 forecast and 66 percent above 2002. Michigan’s production increased by

2 percent from the August forecast and 98 percent from 2002. Size and quality are excellent on the Michigan apple

crop, where a record high yield is forecast. All other Central States are carried forward from the August 1 forecast.

Pecans: The October 1 forecast for 2003 pecan utilized production is 282 million pounds (in-shell basis), up

63 percent from last year’s crop but 17 percent below the 2001 crop year. The 2003 season is the high year of the

alternate bearing cycle; however, frequent rain and cool, cloudy conditions throughout the summer produced

widespread disease problems, particularly in the Southeast States. Fungicide applicators were frequently

interrupted by showers. Scab and insect pressure were the two most common problems reported. Improved

varieties are expected to make up 210 million pounds or three quarters of the total, while the Native and seedling

varieties, at 71.7 million pounds, make up the remaining crop. 

The Georgia forecast, at 70.0 million pounds, is 56 percent above last season but 36 percent less than the 2001 crop. 

The Texas production forecast is 70.0 million pounds, 75 percent above the previous year but 7 percent less than the

2001 crop. New Mexico’s forecast, at 55.0 million pounds, is 53 percent above last year but down 8 percent from

two years ago. For these States, most of the increase is related to the alternate bearing cycle. Reporters in Georgia

commented that the extensive scab disease combined with wet weather is causing the 2003 crop to be one of the

most expensive crops to produce. The dry weather during August and September is causing early defoliation with

leaf regrowth creating concerns for the 2004 crop. Texas grower’s comments varied from, "It’s the best crop ever,"

to "No crop is expected". Problems reported included damaged buds from late March and April freezes followed

by dry conditions in July and August.

The Arizona forecast, at 23.5 million pounds, is 47 percent higher than last year and 12 percent above 2001. This is

the high year of the alternate bearing cycle, and only non-irrigation producers report dry weather effects. 

Oklahoma’s forecast, at 20.0 million pounds, is double the size of last year’s crop, but equal to the production of the

2001 crop year. The Louisiana forecast, at 15.0 million pounds, is up 150 percent from last season and 7 percent

above the 2001 crop. Adequate moisture helped the pecan crop this year. Alabama pecan production, at

8.00 million pounds, is up 60 percent from the previous year but down 47 percent from crop year 2001. Alabama’s

Native and seedling production is curtailed due to scab, insects, and storm activity along the coast.

Grapes: U.S. grape production is forecast at 6.75 million tons, down 4 percent from the August 1 forecast and

8 percent below 2002. California leads the U.S. in grape production with 89 percent of the total. Washington and

New York are the next largest producing States, with 5 percent and 3 percent, respectively. California’s all grape

forecast, at 5.99 million tons, is down 5 percent from the August forecast and 11 percent below 2002. Washington

expects to produce 335,000 tons, 3 percent below the previous forecast but up 1 percent from 2002. New York’s

forecast, at a record high 210,000 tons, is up 2 percent from the previous forecast and 35 percent above last year.

California’s wine type grape production is expected to total 3.00 million tons, 50 percent of California’s total grape

crop. The production forecast for wine type varieties is down 2 percent from the August forecast and 5 percent

below 2002. Fruit set was down this year, and cluster sizes were smaller than normal. Harvest is running about a

week behind last year, with good quality reported. California’s raisin type grape production is forecast at

2.30 million tons, 38 percent of California’s total grape crop. Production of raisin varieties is 8 percent below the

August forecast and down 19 percent from last year. Several days of above average temperatures in July combined

with August rainfall all contributed to declines in yield. Bunch rot has been observed in some Thompson Seedless

vineyards. In some areas, grapevines are being abandoned or pulled out due to economic reasons. By the end of

September, approximately 95 percent of the raisin crop had been picked, 25 percent was on trays drying, and

40 percent of the trays were rolled. Picking of Thompson Seedless grapes for fresh use was still active in late

September. Production of table type grapes, at 690,000 tons, is down 7 percent from both the August 1 forecast

and last season. This level of production represents 12 percent of the total California crop. The extreme heat in

July and late summer rainfall contributed to cracking and decay of fruit in some vineyards, resulting in lower yields. 

Picking continues in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern Districts with Crimson Seedless, Red Globe, Autumn Royal,

Ruby Seedless, and Christmas Rose the primary varieties being harvested. The crop is reported to have good

quality.

Washington’s production is forecast at 335,000 tons, down 3 percent from the August 1 forecast but 1 percent

above 2002. The juice type grape forecast, at 210,000 tons, is 5 percent below the previous forecast and down

3 percent from last season. Harvest is well underway with good quality reported. Wine type grape production is

forecast at a record high 125,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 9 percent greater than last year. 

Harvest of the wine grape crop is being complicated this year by early varieties ripening later than normal and later

varieties ripening earlier than normal. Some wineries are concerned about lack of capacity with the early and late

varieties ripening about the same time. Quality of the crop is expected to be high.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 45 NASS, USDA

Grape production for New York is forecast at a record high 210,000 tons, up 2 percent from the August 1 forecast

and 35 percent higher than 2002. Rainy weather throughout the summer helped increase fruit size. However,

excessive moisture and cool temperatures have resulted in low Brix levels, causing the Concord harvest to be

delayed. The Niagara harvest started late but was underway by October 1, with low Brix levels reported. On Long

Island, and in the Hudson Valley and Fingerlakes Regions, harvest of the wine grape crop was well underway.

Michigan’s grape production is forecast at 80,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 87 percent above

2002. Prior to October 1, an excellent year was anticipated by Concord producers. Berry counts and cluster counts

were both reported to be significantly above average. However, a frost occurred on October 1 that may have

seriously affected the Concord grape crop. The extent of the damage is unknown at this time. Harvest has been

delayed due to low Brix levels. The Niagara harvest was complete by late September, with good yields reported. 

Pennsylvania’s grape production is forecast at 70,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 32 percent

from 2002. Abundant rainfall throughout the growing season has resulted in a crop with excellent production

potential. However, the fruit is ripening slowly, and Brix levels are low. Higher levels of disease pressure have

been observed due to the excess moisture. The Concord harvest is expected to begin in early to mid October. 

Harvest of the Niagara crop is currently underway, along with some early wine grape varieties.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.82 million pounds for September 2003, down

14 percent from last month and 21 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,365 acres, 1 percent lower than

last month but 9 percent above a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,565 acres, virtually unchanged from last month

but 4 percent higher than a year ago. 

September weather conditions were variable with heavy rains during the first two weeks followed by light showers

the rest of the month. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 46 NASS, USDA

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast

Field Crop Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 24

and October 6 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn,

cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the

U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each

sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with

other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The

counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average

harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the

fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to

obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. 

Approximately 16,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable

yield. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as

the season progresses.

Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the October 1 forecast was conducted in

Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In August and September 2003, the number of

bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size

measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona,

California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. 

California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia

oranges.

Field Crop Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were

reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed

considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State

Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The

ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecasts. 

Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for

errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to

prepare the published October 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing

season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending

stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. 

Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended

harvested area has changed since the last estimate. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in

September’s Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of

the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances

are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean

Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the October 1

production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the

squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes

statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in

the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast

are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1

corn for grain production forecast is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production

forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.1 percent.

Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1

forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the

final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 178 million bushels, ranging from 4 million bushels to

624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 11 times and above 9 times. This

does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 47 NASS, USDA

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Crop Unit

Root Mean

Square Error 20-Year Record of

Differences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Percent

90

Percent

Confidence

Interval

Quantity Years

Average Smallest Largest Below

Final

Above

Final

Million Million Million Number Number

Corn for Grain

Sorghum for Grain

Rice

Soybeans for Beans

Cotton 1

Dry Edible Beans

Oranges 1

Oranges 1 2

Bu

Bu

Cwt

Bu

Bales

Cwt

Tons

Tons

3.5

5.9

2.9

2.8

4.1

3.3

11.5

5.3

6.1

10.2

5.0

4.9

7.2

5.7

19.8

9.4

178

25

3

48

541

1

683

447

4

1

1

2

31

0

18

18

624

105

13

119

1,424

2

2,387

917

11

10

10

8

12

16

7

6

9

10

10

12

8

4

13

9

 1 Quantity is in thousands of units. 2 Excluding freeze seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2003 48 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to

contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234

Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum, Sugar Crops (202) 720-8843

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Jim Smith - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-2127

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 12, 2003.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race,

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USDA Data Users’ Forum

October 20, 2003

Holiday Inn Mart Plaza

Chicago, Illinois

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will hold a public forum for open exchange between Federal

agricultural statistics agencies and data users on October 20, 2003. Agency representatives will provide updates on

pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and will seek comments from data users. The

USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service, Economic Research Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, and World

Agricultural Outlook Board, as well as the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division, will also participate in the

forum.

For registration details or additional information about the Data Users’ Forum, see the NASS homepage at

www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Karlyn McCutcheon of NASS at (202) 690-8141 or at

karlyn_mccutcheon@nass.usda.gov.

This Data Users’ Forum precedes an Industry Outlook Meeting that will be held at the same location on October 21,

2003. The outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. 

For more information about the outlook meeting and to register for it, contact the Livestock Marketing Information

Center at (720) 544-2941 or (720) 544-2940.