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Through _"¥7 Outlook
2000 > Forum

The U.S. Department of Agriculture invites you to take part ina
forum on agriculture’s economic prospects through the year 2000.
The Forum will feature noted speakers on the trends and issues
shaping farming's future, and new long-term projections from
USDA.

Act Now to Attend. The Forum will be held at the Stouffer Renais-
sance Hotel in Arlington, Va. For registration information, call the
USDA Graduate School at (202) 401-9421; fax (202) 401-7304; or
write to the Graduate School, (Dept. IH), Room 108, 600 Maryland
Ave., SW Washington, D.C. 20024.

Place Advance Orders for Tapes, Publications. To order audio
and video cassette tapes of the Forum, call 1 (800) 747-0856; in
Maryland, call (301) 662-0371. The Forum proceedings will include
all submitted speeches plus the new USDA projections; request
item YCON-95, $25. Long-term Baseline Projections also available
separately; request WAOB-94-1, $12. Both Available by April 1995.
Call 1 (800) 999-6779.

February 22 and 23, 1995 in Arlington, Virginia

U.S. Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C, 20250-3800



V

3/

b/

Citrus Fruit Footnotes

The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

Net Ibs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85: grapefruit-CA Desert &
AZ-64 in 1992-93 and earlier, 67-starting in 1993-94. CA Other-67, FL-85,
TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-CA and
AZ-75, FL-95.

Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines'in TX.

Estimates for the current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

The first forecast for California grapefruit "Other Areas" will be as of
April 1, 1995.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii. 1994-95 1/

Month =: Total in Crop

1994 1995
elated Acres -------------- -- 1.000 Pounds --
Dec 3,590 2,250 4,618
Jan 3.375 3,620 2.345 2,345 5,295 4,000
Feb 3,315 2.345 4.100
Mar 3,300 2.350 3,780
Apr 3,305 2,260 4,050
May 3,330 2.285 5,045
1/ 1994 revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 1995 5 NASS, USDA


Sugarcane: The 1994 production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at
31.8 million tons. This is unchanged from the last forecast
published in the "Crop Production 1994 Summary” released in mid-January but
represents a 2 percent increase from last year’s output. The Florida forecast
was evaluated and resulted in no change in production. The forecasts for
Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Wet weather in Florida's sugarcane growing region has prolonged the harvest of
the 1994 sugarcane crop. Harvest was 60 percent complete by February 6, behind
the average of 75 percent.

Temples: The February 1 forecast for the 1994-95 Florida temple production
was unchanged from January at 2.60 million boxes (117,000 tons),

16 percent above last season's production. Harvest is increasing in all areas.

So far, about 955.000 boxes have been picked.

Grapefruit: The February 1 forecast of the 1994-95 U.S. grapefruit crop

(excluding California’s “Other Areas") is 2.69 million tons,
unchanged from last month but up 9 percent from last season. Last year,
California's "Other Areas" produced 194,000 tons (5.80 million boxes). The
first forecast for that type of grapefruit will be April 1, 1995.

The forecast for all three types of Florida grapefruit remain unchanged from
January at 55.5 million boxes (2.36 million tons). up 9 percent from last
season. Those individual totais are: white seedless, 25.0 million boxes

(1.06 million tons): colored seedless, 29.0 million boxes (1.23 million tons):
and seedy grapefruit, 1.50 million boxes (64.000 tons).

The forecast for California desert grapefruit is carried forward from January at
3.40 million boxes (114,000 tons), up 3 percent from last season. The Arizona
grapefruit forecast is also carried forward from January at 1.60 million boxes
(54,000 tons), down 9 percent*®rom last season. The Texas grapefruit forecast
also remained unchanged from last month at 4.00 million boxes (160,000 tons),

33 percent larger than last season.

Tangerines: The 1994-95 tangerine crop is forecast at 278,000 tons, down

3 percent from January and 13 percent less than last season. The
Florida tangerine forecast is 3.50 million boxes (166,000 tons), down 5 percent
from Jast month and 15 percent below last year. The California tangerine
forecast was carried forward from January at 2.30 million boxes (86,000 tons).
the same as last season’s production. The Arizona forecast was also carried
forward from last month at 700,000 boxes (26,000 tons), 30 percent less than
last season.

Tangelos: The Florida tangelo forecast is 3.20 million boxes (144,000 tons),
the same as last month but 4 percent smaller than last season.
Harvest is almost over for this season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
February 1995 10 NASS, USDA


California Nut Crops: Bearing Acreage, Yield, Production,
Price, and Value by Crop, 1992-93 and Revised 1994

Tons (In-Shel1 Basis)

Walnuts :

(English) : 178,000 175,000 175,000 1.14 1.49 1.33
: Pounds (Shelled Basis)

Almonds : 401,000 402,000 410,000 1,370 1,220 1,700
es Production —SS=S*S*~*~S*«é CRC UES
1992; ~—«1993 1994; 1992: 1993: 1994
"Tons (in-Shel] Basis). ——==S~S == «‘DoVVars per Ton ---

Walnuts

(English) 2/ : 203,000 260,000 232,000 1,410.00 1,390.00

wrens 1,000 Pounds ----- --- Dollars per Pound ---
(Shelled Basis)

Almonds 3/ : 548,000 490,000 695.000 1.30 1.90 1.20

1,000 Dollars

Walnuts t
(English) 2/ : 286,230 361.400
Almonds 3/ 691,340 911,430 817 320

1/ Yield is based on utilized production.

2/ Price and value estimates for 1994 will be published on July 7. 1995.

3/ Price and value are based on the edible portion of the crop only.
Included in production are inedible quantities of no value as follows:
1992 - 16.2 million pounds, 1993 - 10.3 million pounds, and
1994 - 13.9 million pounds.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
February 1995 7 NASS, USDA


Sugarcane:

Area Harvested, Yield,
by Use, State. and United States, 1992-94

and Production

Area Harvested

State

Production 1/

For Sugar
FL
HI 2/
LA 2/
TX 2/

US

For Seed
FL
HE 2/
LA 2/
TX 2/

uS

For Sugar
and Seed

425.
64.
360.
43.

893.
19.
5.
30.
0.

55.

444.

1,000 Acres

428.
61.
352.
42.

884.
I7.
5.
28.
1.

51.

445.

wooa

w&

37.
23.

20.
28.

.512
508
220
412

652

640

684
27

449

1,000 Tons

5,120
5,504
8,448
1,301

30,373

630
115
672

1.443

1/ Net tons.

2/ Current estimate carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production
February 1995

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS. USDA


The East also saw little snow, with monthly totals ranging from only a trace in
Philadelphia, PA, to 15.7 inches in Portland, ME. Despite the occasional return
of lake-effect squalls--especially in early- and late-January--monthly totals of
23.1 inches in Buffalo, NY, and 27.0 inches in Erie, PA. left seasonal snowfall
lagging averages by more than 2 feet. An amazing spell of mid-month warmth set
all-time January records in Providence, RI (69 degrees F), Massena, NY

(67 degrees F), Burlington, VT (66 degrees F), Mansfield, OH (64 degrees F), and
Caribou, ME (53 degrees F).

In contrast, several snow storms crossed the Southwestern and South Central
States. An early-month system dropped 17.6 inches on Flagstaff, AZ, which went
on to receive a monthly total of 43.3 inches. A mid-month storm dumped as much
as 100 inches of snow on Utah's Wasatch Range in less than 3 days. The next
storm to emerge from the Southwest left 2.2 inches of snow in Lubbock, TX,
before immobilizing a strip from the Ozark Plateau to southern Wisconsin with
more than a foot of snow. Columbia, MO (19.7 inches) experienced its heaviest
snow on record.

Several severe-weather episodes affected the Southeast, most notably a
14-tornado outbreak on January 6-7. Another storm brought severe weather to
eastern Texas and flash flooding to the southern Appalachians on January 12-14.
A dozen more tornadoes touched down from Louisiana eastward on January 18-19.
Several other disturbances rippled across the Gulf Coast region late in the
month, including a heavy-rain producer on January 26-27.

General Crop Comments: The month began with heavy rainfall drenching California

and flooding low lying fields. A winter storm brought
extreme cold that slowed small grain growth across the Nation and caused wheat
producers in the northern Great Plains concern with the lack of adequate snow
cover. The early January snow cover in the Northern States was below average
but adequate to safeguard the wheat crop from wind damage and freezing
temperatures. Low temperatures in the southern Great Plains helped keep insect
problems to a minimum, while light snow and rain across the Texas High Plains
benefited moisture-stressed wheat fields. Topdressing was underway by mid-month
in most areas, while continued heavy rains saturated California fields.
Widespread flooding and standing water in California caused extensive yellowing
in smal) grain fields. Spring-like weather in mid-January melted the snow cover
in the Great Plains, but snowfall later in the month replenished the cover
before temperatures dropped. Winter wheat fields in north Texas were dry, while
some wheat fields farther south were yellowing from excessive moisture. Toward
the end of the month. wintry weather restored the snow cover in the Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys. Winter wheat condition in Montana remained mostly fair to
good with little wind damage reported despite the below-average snow cover.
Warmer weather in the Texas plains encouraged wheat growth in spite of dry
conditions, while in central Texas, rust and yellowing problems continued. By
the end of January, heavy rain along the Gulf Coastal region left some wheat
fields flooded and the continued warm weather raised concern for early growth.
The month ended with warm weather in Texas that prompted wheat greening, while
the continued rains in east Texas caused some rust and yellowing of wheat
fields. The snow cover in Montana was rated as mostly poor with little wind
damage reported, but winter wheat was rated as mostly fair to good. In the Ohio
Valley, some fields were ponding as the snow metted. Heavy rains in California
halted fieldwork. Overall, the mild weather during the month sustained the
wheat crop in the Northern States despite the marginal snow cover.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
February 1995 9 NASS, USDA


National

Crop Agricultural

Statistics

Production Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released on February 10, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts
refer to February 1, 1995.

Orange Production Up 1 Percent

Orange production is forecast at 11.6 million tons, up 1 percent from January
and 13 percent above last season. The increase is the result of a 2.00 million
box increase in the Florida Valencia crop. Valencia production now stands at
82.0 million boxes (3.69 million tons). up 3 percent from last month and

23 percent above a year ago. The Early and mid-season variety forecast remained
at 121 million boxes (5.45 million tons), unchanged from January but 13 percent
above last year. Total orange production in Florida is 203 million boxes

(9.14 million tons), up 1 percent from January and 17 percent above jiast season.
California orange production was carried forward from January. -All orange
production in California is forecast at 64.0 million boxes (2.40 million tons),
2 percent above last season.

This forecast reflects conditions in Florida citrus groves as of February 1.
Cool temperatures experienced after that date and any effects on production are
not reflected in this report.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice yield for the 1994-95 season is
forecast at 1.51 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This forecast is
unchanged from last month and down from last seasons’s final yield of

1.57 gallons per box. The projected yield for early and mid-season varieties is
1.44 gallons per box, down from 1.52 gallons per box last season. The Valencia
crop is expected to yield 1.63 gallons per box, down from 1.66 gallons per box a
year ago. The forecast projects the final yield reported by the Florida Citrus
Processors Association.

For information call (202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (2-95)


Report Features

The next "Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on

March 9, 1995.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843

Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice (202) 720-9526

Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Tobacco, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7681

Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068

Charles Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Stephen Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Ory Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285

Kirby Cavett - Peanuts. Hay (202) 720-8843

Roger Latham - Cotton (202) 720-5944

Linda McMillan - Nuts, Grapes (202) 720-4215

Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-2157

Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Barbara Soltes - Noncitrus Fruits (202) 720-7688

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 1995 12 NASS. USDA


Florida Citrus: Most Florida citrus groves were in very good to excellent
condition. Moisture was adequate despite below average
rainfall for the month of January. Some night temperatures in the upper
thirties brought light frost but there was no damage to trees or fruit. Harvest
for most mature early and mid-season types of fruit was active. Processing
plants utilized more than 10 million boxes of alt types of citrus per week for a
couple of weeks during January. Movement of early and mid-season oranges during
January was busy in all areas. Orange harvest averaged more than 8 million
boxes per week for the month. Grapefruit harvest during January was most active
on the lower east coast. Nearly 22.2 million boxes of grapefruit and
2.90 million boxes of tangerines were moved by the end of January.

Texas Citrus: Harvest continued without delay in January. Prices continued

to be low. Quality remained good. A large amount of oranges
were used for juice. Some fruit drop occurred during January. Normal grove
care operations continued.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.00 million pounds for
January, 13 percent below December and 24 percent less than January a
year ago.

Papaya ringspot virus continued to affect major growing areas. Weather during
January was mostly cool and dry, especially the second half of the month. The
drier weather aided efforts to control disease.

Area devoted to production, at 3,620 acres, was 7 percent greater than a year
earlier. Harvested area, at 2,345 acres, was unchanged from a year ago.

California Fruit and Nuts: Normal winter cultural activities were hampered in
virtually all areas due to excessive rains and
flooding. Wet conditions and high winds resulted in downed trees and fruit
damage in many orchards. Grape vines were dormant and did not experience much
damage. Grape growers were pruning, tying. and spraying as weather permitted.
By month’s end, some stone fruit and almonds began to bud. Avocado harvest
continued throughout the month. Strawberry fields were damaged extensively.

California Citrus: The Navel orange harvest is behind schedule but progressed
to about one-third complete. Poor harvest conditions were

caused by excessive winds and rainfall. Lemon and grapefruit harvests

continued throughout January. Tangerine harvest began at the end of the month.

Walnuts, 1994 Revised: The 1994 California walnut production has been revised

to 232,000 tons, up 2 percent from January's preliminary
estimate. This level of production is down 11 percent from 1993's record high
production of 260,000 tons.

Almonds, 1994 Revised: The 1994 California almond. production has been revised

to a record high 695 million pounds (shelled basis).
This level is up 5 percent from January's preliminary estimate and up 42 percent
from last year.

The 1994 value of utilized production for almonds was revised to $817 million,
down 10 percent from the 1993 total of $911 million.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
February 1995 11 NASS, USDA


January Weather Summary: A storm train--borne of a powerful southern branch of
the polar- front jet stream and occasionally suffused

with sub-tropical energy--dumped a year’s worth of precipitation on parts of

California in a month. For example, Santa Barbara's January rainfall of

21.94 inches eclipsed the normal annual total of 16.25 inches. Among the

records to fall in California and surrounding areas were a number of all-time

monthly rainfall and rainfall-persistence records, summarized as follows:

All-Time Monthly Rainfall Records

Location Amount (Inches) Former Record

Gibraltar Res. 34.76 31.18 in Jan. 1969
Santa Barbara 21.94 17.33 in Feb. 1962
Red Bluff 20.86 20.71 in Jan. 1871
Lompoc 15.37 11.63 in Mar. 1991
Santa Maria 11.78 10.31 in Jan. 1909

Selected January Rainfall Records

Location Amount (Inches) Former Record
Eugene, OR 15.36 15.09 in 1990
Cuyama, CA 5.94 5.19 in 1969
Yakima, WA 3.67 3.66 in 1970
Las Vegas, NV 3.00 2.41 in 1949

Number of Days in a Month with Measurable Rain

Location Number of Days Former Record Set
San Francisco 26 (tied) Jan. 1909/1916
Sacramento 25 (tied) Jan. 1909

Fresno 2 Jan. 1916

By February 1, the holdings of California's 155 primary reservoirs increased to
104 percent of normal, up from about 75 percent of normal a month ago. due to
heavy rainfall and low-elevation Snow melt. At the higher elevations of the
Sierra Nevada, the snow pack staod at approximately 195 percent of normal at
month's end.

Lost amidst the rainfall records was January-record warmth. reported by
locations such as Seattle, WA (46.4 degrees F) and Sacramento, CA

(53.2 degrees F). Pendleton. OR (70 degrees F) attained a January-record high
on the Jast day of the month.

Across the Plains, the strong west-to-east jet and downslope warming and drying
of the air permitted little precipitation and fueled monthly temperatures of

2 to 10 degrees above normal. However. a late-month shot of light rain and snow
benefited winter wheat in Kansas. Less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation
fell on locations such as Havre, MT (0.05 inches), Valentine, NE (0.02 inches).
and Colorado Springs, CO (a trace). A Sampling of very low monthly snowfall
totals included North Platte, NE (0.1 inches). Topeka, KS (2.0 inches), and
Cheyenne, WY (2.7 inches).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
February 1995 8 . NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit:

1993-94 and Forecasted on February 1

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/
AZ 4/

Grapefruit .
nite Seedless

Colored Seedless
Other

FL
All

AZ 4/

CA 4/ 5/
Desert
Other Areas
Total

FL

TX

US

Tangerines
AZ 4/
CA 4/
FL

US
Lemons 4/

Tangelos
FL

K-Early Citrus
FL

25,700
27,700
1,750
2.150

3.500
5.700

Utilized Production
Boxes

700
36,600
107,300
480
145,080

1,200
26,000
66,900

i

7
94,170

1,900
62,600
174,200
550
239,250

2,250

24,500
25,500
1.050
1,750

3,300
5,800
9,100
$1,050
3.000
64,900

1,000
2,300
4,100
7,400

5,200
20.700
25,900

3,350

600
37,000
121,000
1,000
159,600

750
27,000
82,000

100

109,850
1,350
64,000
203,000
1,100
269,450

2,600

25,000
29,000
1.500
1,600
3,400

55,500
4,000

700
2,300
3,500
6.500

4,000
20,500
24,500

3.200

Utilized Production

Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1995 1/

Ton Equivalent

10,992

1,093
1,177

112

2,791

sn

26
372
829

248

45
975

010
033

71

347
839

10,

281
102

042
084

111

655

1,063
1,233
64

54
114

2,360
160

Crop Production
February 1995

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA




Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested.
United States, 1993-94 (Domestic Units)

Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 948.3 935.3

Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States. 1992-94 (Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production

Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 32.8 34.0 30,363 31,101 31,816

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested.
United States, 1993-94 (Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

Crop Dee eeee eee eee nee ce eee tence eee tree eee eects
1993 1994 1993 1994
Hectares
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 383.770 378.510
Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States, 1992-94 (Metric Units)
Production
Crop nner rt tener ttt t ttc rr ttc tert t treet tects tescrrtsrce
1992 1993 1994
Metric Tons
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 73.52 76.25 27,544,850 28,214,350 28.862.990
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
February 1995 3 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Production, United States,
1994 and Forecasted February 1, 1995

Crop and Unit Jan 1 Feb 1
1994 1995 1995
1,000
Oranges 1/ Ton : 10,281 11.539 11.634

Oranges 1/

1/ Harvest begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

This report was approved on February 10, 1995, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Agricultural
Statistics Board.

fe Ue

Acting Secretarf/of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Richard E. Rominger Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 1995 2 NASS, USDA


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille. large print. audiotape, etc.) should contact the

USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture. USDA, Washington, D.C..
20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
February 1995 13 NASS, USDA