AREA PLANTED, 1977; UNITED STATES 1974-76

5 + SPRING WHEAT DURUM
STATE CORN SOYBEANS SORGHUM OTHER THAN WHEAT COTTON
: DURUM
: 1,000 ACRES
ALA 840 1,700 75 430.0
ARIZ 65 125 93 518.0
ARK 55 4,650 285 1,020:0
CALIF 430 150 30 1350.1
coLo 900 510 35
CONN 53
OEL 220 210
FLA 640 350 6.5
6A 2,240 1,370 75 260.0
IDAHO : 400 380
TL 11,250 8,900 70 0
IND 6,400 3,900 23
IOWA 133500 72250 45
KANS 2,030 1,020 4,850
Ky 1,580 1,400 50 1.2
LA 105 23600 38 550.0
MAINE : 48
MD : 720 320
MASS 39
MICH 2,500 730
MINN 6,900 3,850 3,200 85
MISS 250 3,900 60 1,450.0
No 2,950 45880 870 290.0
MONT : 95 2,050 210
NEBR 7,150 1,300 2,400
NEV 2 8 1.3
NH 21
Na 149 135
N MEX : 135 240 4 119.0
NY 1,250 16
NC 13950 1,450 100 87.0
N DAK : 620 215 7,200 2,600
OHIO : 4,050 3,400
OKLA 120 280 1,040 490.0
OREG : 44 70
PA 1,595 53
RI 4
SC 745 1,350 30 175.0
$ DAK 3,000 310 490 2,350 145
TENN 920 2,300 40 350.0
TEX 1,750 800 5,800 6,273.0
UTAH 80 26
VT : 95
vA : 840 430 24 0.9
WASH : 120 200
WVA 3 100
WIS + 3,700 200 20
wo : 70 26
US 2 82,420 59,269 17,390 15,565 3,167 13,3720
YEAR t UNITED STATES.
T,000 ACRE’
1976 845121 50,327 18,639 17,759 4,748 11,655.5
1975 1 78,166 54,732 18,345 14,062 4,830 9,492.6
1974 : 77,787 53,507 17,676 14,826 4,174 13,699.4
CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 8-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PEACHES

1 PRODUCTION 1/ : PRODUCTION
cROP 1 POUNDS td  _ 48 LB. EQUIVALENT.
AND 1 TOTAL TINOICATEO? TOTAL VINDICATED
STATE +1975 t 1976 3 1977 8 1975 ¢ 1976 8 1977
1 MILLION UNITS 14000 UNITS
PEACHES 1
ALA asi 709 1400 1066 146 292 208
ARK art 35.0 4200 4900 729 a7s A33
CALIF -FRFESTONE ! 389.0 464.0 40060 89104 94667 2,333
coLo ' 14.5 22.0 348 302 458
CONN av 5.0 113 85 104
DEL asi 200 oT 33 42
GA art 110.0 14979 4167 2,292
T0AHO ast 12.5 219 250 260
TLL 1 900 563 417 188
IND asi 160 208 115 2.
KANS, asi 960 229 383 188
KY art 140 344 188 21
La ave 7.0 63 166 146
MD + 19.0 479 375 396
MASS ar 560 110 94 106
MICH 1 65.0 14356 833 14354
MISS ast 6.0 83 125 125
MO av 13.0 479 469 271
NJ 1 110.0 16979 19667 24292
NY 1 13.0 354 198 ani
NC ava 35.0 625 521 729
OHIO ast 2.0 417 250 42
OKLA ava 9.5 1462 167 198
OREG ast 15.0 271 313 313
Pa : 105.0 21292 2.292 24188
sc : 780.0 49375 59313 5+833
TENN art Aa 18) 167 167
TEX art 4360 333 438 896
UT Ad art 17.0 333 375 354
va : 17.0 667 313 354
WASH ' 34.0 792 875 708
wove : 146.0 543 313 333
TOTAL ' 1946169 28,961 319716 30,022
PEACHES CLINGSTONE avi
CALIF 11965760 1949660 1445040 30+250 314167 30.208
ALL PEACHES :
us t 2484261 34018.2  24891.0 599201 624885 60,230

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION ANO EXCESS CULLAGE

(MILLION POUNDS)? UNITED STATES, 1975-28409 197A=21%66
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRTEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
3/ CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE IS OVER THE SCALE TONNAGE AND

INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS (MILLION POUNDS)

1 19756150609 1976-15460.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-22 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


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CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA

8-18

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977


RYE: The 1977 rye crop is expected to total 18.2 million bushels, 3 percent above the July 1
~~" forecast and 9 percent above the 1976 crop of 16.7 million bushels. Yield prospects
improved during the month in six States, declined in five and were unchanged in nine of the 20
States in which current forecasts were made.

Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is expected to total 785,000 acres--2 per-
cent below the 1976 acreage and a new record low, Yield is expected to average 23.2 bushels
per acre, 2.5 bushels above last year and 1.2 bushels above the 1975 average.

As of August 1, harvest in South Dakota was nearing completion compared with the normal
81 percent. In Minnesota, about 76 percent of the crop had been combined compared with the
normal 54 percent.

Ouring the past decade, changes in production from the August 1 forecast to the final .
estimate averaged 1.1 million bushels, ranging from negligible to 3.0 million bushels. During
those 10 years the August 1 estimate has been above the final estimate 8 times by an average of
1.2 million bushels, and below 2 times by an average of 0.7 million bushels.

FLAXSEED: Flaxseed production is forecast at 15.5 million bushels, more than double the small

1976 crop and 3 percent larger than the 1975 output. Acreage for harvest totaled
1,465,000 acres, an increase of 54 percent from last year, but 4 percent below 1975 harvested
acres. Yield per harvested acre at 10.6 bushels is up 2.9 bushels from 1976 and up 0.7 bushel
from two years ago.

North Dakota, with 59 percent of the total acres for harvest, expects a yield of 9.0 bushels
per acre, up 1.0 bushel from 1976. The crop is about 10 days ahead of normal. South Dakota has
24 percent of the acreage for harvest. Based on conditions as of August 1, growers there expect
to harvest 12.0 bushels per acre, almost two and a half times the 1976 yield, The South Dakota
harvest is underway. Minnesota producers began harvesting the crop in late July. Their yield is
forecast at 14.5 bushels per acre, up 4.5 bushels from last year.

PEANUTS: Peanut production is forecast at 3,124 million pounds (net weight), 17 percent below

the 3,751 million pounds produced in 1976. The indicated yield per acre of 2,069
pounds is 396 pounds below last year. Acreage to be harvested this year totals 1.5 million
acres, 1 percent less than was harvested in 1976.

The Virginia-North Carolina area expects to produce 698 million pounds, down 7 percent from
1976. Acreage is the same as in 1976. Indicated yield of 2,596 pounds is down 191 pounds from
a year ago. The North Carolina crop is’ in fair to good condition as the peanut growing area has
generally escaped the drought conditions found elsewhere. August weather will be critical to
the development of pegs. Peanut plants have not been significantly affected by dry conditions
in southeastern Virginia. However, rain will soon be needed for plants to acquire full growth
and assure good quality for harvest. Vines are blooming and pegs are developing in both States.

In the Southeast, production of 1,735 million pounds is expected, 24 percent less than last
year. Acreage for harvest is set at 810,000 acres, down 9,000 from last year. Indicated yield
is 2,142 pounds, 630 pounds less than 2 year ago. Peanut condition in Georgia is mostly fair
to poor. The June drought continued into July and caused some deterioration although recent
rains will help overcome some of that setback, The Florida crop is making fair progress but more
moisture is needed. Harvest for boiling and fresh market peanuts is underway in central areas.
Recent rains in South Carolina have helped the crop regain color and growth after a hot, dry

july.

The Southwest area peanut crop is expected to total 691 million pounds, 5 percent less than
the 1976 crop. Acreage is down 1 percent. Indicated yield for the area at 1,605 pounds is 82
pounds below last year's average. Peanuts are making good progress in Texas, though rain is
needed. A few early fields have been harvested in south and south central Texas. Hot weather
hurt dry land peanuts in Oklahoma and development is later than normal. Some stands are thin
because of heavy rains at planting.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


BARLEY

STATE i. AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELD PRODUCTION
: ’ TNO t t T IND 8 1 7 IND
1975 3 1976 1 1977+ 1975 1 1976 4 1977 3 1975 4 1976 + 1977
’ 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
t

ARIZ , lis 100 100 75,0 7600 7640 89625 7600 7600
CALIF 1 1,060 14020 930 57.0 © 5600 = 5500 = 609420 564560 = 514150
cova 1 230 245 24005, 5500 536012019013 9475
OE, ist 23 22 21 $1.0 4060 3660 943 880
OA ost 8 10 oT 38,0 4560 4360 304 450
TOAMO ot 738 800 915 50,0 5440 $6.0 379750 434200
Wk oast 14 13 130 42,0 © 4000 $160 588
IND) W/t 10 9 8 42,0 4200 $400 420
KANS + 33 7% 90 38,0 340 34.0 19925
ky wt 34 30 28 37,0 3700 440
“D ' loo 94 90 43,0 4540 4800 49300 34780
MICH 1/1 22 a. 22 48,0 4200 4540 1,056 990
MINN 1 850 860 980 37,5 4005 740 = 310875, 46,060
MO ost ral 10 10 3200 396 390
MONT 1 19300 19170 19430 4405 50+700 485620
NEGR 1/1 33 38 31 3600 14188 14240
NEV 1/1 ey 16 16 5440 Too 680
NJ Ist 18 20 17 6900 866 765
N MEX 1/1 2a 20 25 51.0 19626 1,020 19450
NY o/s 12 12 13 41060 504 492 520
Le Val 37 60 57 39.0 25565 24340 25398
N DAK 1 2e100 25140 29800 3840 79800 814320 954000
OHIO 1st 12 12 13 4760 S64 564 611
OKLA : 93 85 140 4200 29790 39570 41900
OREG ’ 17? 160 180 4640 89850 7y360 74920
Pa t 158 147 145 43.0 74750 69322 $4960
sc ist 23 23 22 3500 are 803 658
S$ Dak ot 532 350 640 1760 169492 5,950 25,600
TENN 1/3 1s 14 146 3840 436 532 560
TEX ' 7 52 as 3960 4060 24380 2.028 30400
UTAH t 135 126 125 8500 5640 Brloo 64930 74000
va 1 104 103 100 4600 43.0 40888 40738 45300
WASH ' 400 390 410 54.0 3240 © 21v200 219060 134120
WVA s/t In 9 9 4220 = 6360 460 378 387
wis) o.sr 38 32 28 4000 © 6840 15505 1,260 19346
WYO ’ 134 138 ise 6000 = 5860 71638 8,280 T9242
us t 89743 82417 99600 43.9 4408 4203 3830920 3770264 46054777

i/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


PEARS

CROP AND STATE 1 PRODUCTION 17 _.
: TOTAL 1 TOTAL t TNO
ho. 1975 1 397%) tg 977
' TONS
PEARS BARTLETT 1
CALIF t 2974000 365000 3405000
OREG t 794000 825000 744000
WASH 1 1334500 1466000 1354000
TOTAL 1 $09,500 587-000 549,000
PEARS EXCLUOING BARTLETT '
CaLTF ' 64350 8500 8,000
OREG 1 944000 1254000 954009
WASH 1 854500 954000 785000
TOTAL 1 165,850 2284500 181,000
ALL PEARS '
CALIF 1 3035350 3735500 348,000
COLO ars 69000 644600 Teaon
CONN art 14900 700 14900
IDAHO ast 19650 29000 14800
MICH : 15.000 69000 124000
NY ' 204000 8000 155000
OREG ' 21732000 2079000 169,000
PA art 39400 27800 39200
UTAH ark 44900 54300 45600
WASH ' 2194000 2354000 213,000
us : 7484200 8460700 7755900
1/ INCLUDFS UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE
(TONS)? US 1975643001 1976+20,000,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRTEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
GRAPES
CROP AND STATE t PRODUCTION 1/
r TOTAL t TOTAL IND
1975 i 1976 1977
TONS
GRaPFS TABLE TYPE
CaLTr 6342000 4064000 450.000
GRAPES WIE TYPE
caure 1, 3228000 243554000 146009000
GRAPFS RATSIN TYPE DRIED 2/
CALIF 2844000 2584000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE NOT ORIE
car iF 9559400 9894000
GRAPES RATCIN TYPE '
CaLiF + 242059000 241294000 241005000
ALL GOAPES :
aor7 : 125300 12,600 114000
RK ' 109500 64500 104300
CALIF ' 399619000 348900000 441500000
MICH : 569000 164500 26+000
“O : 29750 19750 34000
Nou t 1e200 759 900
NY ' 1534000 1854000 925000
Nc 45400 49580 49620
Oowro + 145600 154000 61000
PK t 484000 58,000 305000
#aSe : 1109200 1122000 1002000
OTHER STATES ast 44800 40950 44900
us a 443789750 443040430 444385720

Y/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTEOD PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE

(TONS)? US 1975-1.280.

OF FRESH GRAPES FOR 1975 AND 4.42 FOR 1976.

1976-299.350, (287,000 TONS
FOESH EQUIVALENT RAISIN TYPE IN CALIF LaID« AUT NOT

HARVESTED DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER OamaGE),
2/ DIED RASTS» 1 TON RAISINS IS EQUIVALENT TO 4.4% TONS

3/ GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977

8-23

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS. USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS“

py ay

md
SIGE

EIST OA
ww

yy
we

TD Good to excellent
3 Poor to tair

Ed Very poor

FED) Severe drought

GEE Extreme drought 4S REPORTED BY

(CROP CORRESPONDENTS

% INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON- IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. eee -

US. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. $9596.77) STATISTICAC REPORTING SERVICE

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS*
; AUGUST 1, 1976

TZ Good to exeetient
[Ed Poor to tar

E23 very poor

EXD Severe drought

WA Extceme drought AS REPORTED BY

(CROP CORRESPONDENTS.

‘INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON-IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS,

LLU.S.DEPARTMEN! OF AGRICULTURE NEG, SRS 392-76 18) STATISTICAL REPORTING SERVICE

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


AREA PLANTED, POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP ' { Il SEASONAL GROUP 1 '
EASON END ' 1976 ' 1977 u Ano 1976 ' 1977
TATE u STATE
st t Tr000 ACRES ur ( 1000 ACRES
1 "
WINTER 1 " '
H i . 865
TOTAL Ww 1466 1306 " nooR H 5 Hed
SPRING H " ney H 1400 1590
H i 430 2360
008 Ole 11 N YeLONG TSLAND | 24
Tork My 100409 "s tl “UPSTATE { 2662 2748
SUMMER t 1) oN DAK 1 12640 14500
t 1) OHTO 1 1001 1940
. . 1] OREGeMaLHEUR CO ft lle .
roray Mm 12907 12000 y <0THER CO 4 S48 5060
FALL avi 1, PA \ 2900 2800
CALIF ' 18.8 It RT ' 4 got
coLo ' 3700 jp § DAK Sek
iam tit ye et
IMAHO=10 SW CO | 3540 . :
TOTHER CO | 3350 1) WASH 1 12400 19640
iar { elo (ite H m4 740
MAINE 1 11660 " WYO H
wien H 3500 nN TOTAL t 1916766 Le 7264
“NN H 6900 us 2vi__1,406.8 ‘1,397.9
17 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

2/7 1976 REVISED.

SWEETPOTATOES
STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED ' YIELO 1 PRODUCTION
' ’ t IND fr ' ' IND 1 + 7 IND
— 1.1975 ¢ 1976 4 1977 11975 | 1976 1 1977 3 1975 1976 4 1977
1 19000 ACRES CNT 19000 cwr
1
ALA 1 568 505 5.3 90 90 8s 522 495 451
ARK 1 165 165 166 80 78 15 120 117 120
CALIF ot 703 76 768 140 155 150 1,022 1,178 14170
cy ' 78 7.5 m5 100 98 7s 750 713 563
wy t 30.0 2940 2700 a5 as 98 25586 2078S 2865,
“oO ' 21 169 169 185 140 160 326 266 266
MISS ! 965 900 900 97 90 90 922 aio 810
NJ ’ 260 2e2 203 110 115 110 220 253 253
Nc ' 3160 3300 3300 145 140 220 49495 41620 35960
sc ’ 203 205 263 87 86 66 200 215 150
TENN 1 360 209 268 105 105 100 318 305 280
TEX 1 1040 1065 965 11s 10S 8s 15150 14103 808
va t 665 665 566 150 145 238 975 943 728
us : 11865 12906 115.6 1é 5 105 139567 23,773 129126

€ROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-16 CROP REPORTING BOARO, SRS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

State AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELD 4 PRODUCTION

t 1 t IND t 7 ' md + t t TNO

1 1975 4 1976 1 1977 $1975 | 1976 11977 8 1975 1 1976 + 1977

: 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

1
ALA ' 660 796 718 $300 6200 349980 495352 194305
ARIZ Hl 12 28 50 3300 6000 396 19680 39000
ARK ' 3a 45 a4 5060 56.0 19900 2,520 1,980
CALIF os 284 290 250 10960 = 11000 279686 = 31,900 279500
COLO ' 525 600 620 9300 10400 10640 489825 62400 625000
CONN t
OEL ' 190 21s 205 9100 85-0 T4.0 179290 189275 155170
FLA ' 394 $04 $00 4540 6000 20.0 179730 309240 107000
GA ' 12880 24160 12800 55.0 62.0 26.0 103400 1339920 39,000
Wako 6: 28 29 26 «8340 8560 8540 20075 20465 2210
Tu 4 100810 129690 105900 13660 = 10760 192539960 142507830 141991000
IND t $9630 64300 69200 = 984011000 0 5519740 693,000 6074600
TOWA 1 124300 12¢750 129200 9040 = 9000 14107000 191479500 140375000
KANS t 14640 19790 15650 8440 9540 1379760 1705050 16
ky ' 19140 14360 19400 = 7720-10260 879780 138,720
La t 60 67 80 = 52.0 B40 30120 5916
MAINE 1
Mo ’ $50 630 620 9160 98 $0,050 = 574330 494600
Mass 4
MICH 1 14910 20050 24050 80.0 6940 1529800 1414450 = 1534750
MINN ' 5820 5600 59900 70.0 $900 4079400 330,400 5314000
MISS ' 1465 172 180 41604740 $1945 8084 69480
MO ' 29700 24850 29700 = 6340 6100 170100 1739850 2054200
MONT : 10 1 12 73.0 7560 730 825 866
NEBR ' 5920 69200 69350 85.0 8340 5039200 514,600 603,250
NEV '
NW 1 -
Na ' 83 100 104 = 8160 8600 8600 65736
NMEX 4 70 a8 9S 10000 10540 99240 99500
NY ' 466 492 830 85.0 7760 399610 = 379884 = 434990
Nc ' 19890 14880 19700 6740 8060 1069530 1509400 = 909100
NDAK f¢ 132 180 190 51.0 4000 69732 7200 949500
OHTO ' 39490 34920 30750 «9240 10700 = 90 3210080 © 3954920 341250
OKLA t 8s 1 85 = 8040 9500 8640 69800 8,645 79310
ORES 1 ll 1) 11 85.0 9020 = 8540 938 990 935
Pa 1 12060 19150 19180 82.0 9000 82.0 88+560 103.500 940300
RI t
sc ' 530 667 $70 6300-7000 3908 = 349650 = 48 4690 169810
S DaK 1 29250 19200 29000 37.0 3100 4600 839250 374200 92,000
TENN 1 615 715 750 6000 = 7920 = 6840 = 364900 © 564485 = 1,000
TEX 1 ip100 14800 19600 10300 12000 11540 1139300 1804000 1844000
UTAH ' 1s 15 12 12000 = 9000 10060 14650 15350 1,200
VT 1
va ' 565 615 580 8640 7640 62.0 = 48590 464740 = 354960
WASH t 34 cys 45 10660 = 10540 = 10640 39536 49620 45770
weVA ' 65 61 59 85.0 8840 76.0 59525 $+368 45486
WIS t 24390 25180 29400 = 8360 6840 93.0 1985370 1485260 2234200
Wyo ' 18 19 20 8000 = 8740 B04 19440 15653 12600
vs 1 679222719085 699803 SoZ BT eh BE 3847977048 642160032 640920054

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


RICE

STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED 4 YIELO 1 PRODUCTION

t + + TNO t —T 7 IND? T 7 TNO

t 1975 1 1o7e 1 1977 1 (1975 § 1976 ¢ 1977 ¢ 1975 4 1976 1977__

1 19000 ACRES POUNDS 19000 cwr

'
ARK ' BB260 797.0 44540 49770 #5700 409053 405362 375459
CALIF $2500 34>6 5,800 5870 54300 309436 235368 184126
La + 65840 478.0 39610 39910 34850 254064 229203 185403
MISS t V7. 106.0 34900 49200 49350 67665 610468 1526
“o ' 18.0 1360 49210 4200 49400 758 588 572
TEX ' 54800 468.0 4560 4810 44600 244996 245430 21,528
us t 2980200 2950260 2020260 49567 9679 44569 1274972 «1 THOLD 1.004612

RYE

STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED ' YIELD ' PRODUCTION

: + 1 IND v TY IND 7 7 IND

4 1975 1 1976 8 1977 1 1975 ? 1976 1 1977 ¢ 1975 1 1976 3 1977

1 1¥0G0 ACRES BUSHELS 1*000 BUSHELS

t
COLO 1 4 7 s 2220 23.0 1960 88 161 98
OEL ost 9 9 8 2200 2340 198 207 176
OA ast 105, 110 110 1 2240 19875 24420 2090
TUL ' 7 15 15 2160 374 315 330
IND ' 9 lo 9 2300 234 230 225
rowA 1/1 5 5 4 28.0 120 140 200
KANS ' 1s 15 20 1760 315 255 380
KY vay 6 3 2 2000 100 60 52
MD t ll ll iM 27.0 286 297 297
MICH ' 2a 26 30 26.0 700 676 720
MINN 1 89 105 92 19.5 2,225 20068 2.576
MO 1 ML la 1d 2160 242 210 297
NEBR ' 55 60 55 1740 19100 1,020 14155
Nyooist 7 a 10 3000 175 240 250
Ny t 12 12 13 3000 360 360 377
NC : 20 20 22 1949 360 380 396
N DAK 3 1g wnt 80 25.5 2097S 25831 1,920
OHIO 1 7 7 8 28.0 196 196 216
OKLA 1 36 36 34 1969 684 684 666
ORES ' BT 9 lo 25.0 297 225 250
PA ' 16 14 16 2660 466 364 434
sc iss 33 30 29 1749 594 510 580
S Dak 1 102 99 120 1540 24346 16485 34240
TENN 1/1 2 2 2 27.0 36 54 46
TEX 1 40 27 25 14.0 760 378 400
vA 1 16 16 16 23.0 322 322 368
WASH 1 16 8 8 2200 260 176 152
WIS 1 15 12 14 2140 315 252 322
WYO 1/3 a 9 8 1960 176 171 152
Us 1 B16 804 785 2067 179875 165667 185242

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRTED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


oats

STATE AREA HARVESTED ' YIELD PROBUCTION
' 1 TNO + 7 TNO 7 ND
t 1975 + 1976 t 1977 + 3975 1 2976 t 1977 3 1975 1 1976 1 1977
t 1.000 ACRES BUSWELS 19000 BUSHELS
1
ALA Ost 33 30 30, 34,0 © 3840-3240 19122 1,080
ARK 1 60 70 65 5060 69.0 39000 5,820
CALIF 1 13 115 120-5360 49.0 59989 5635
colo 1/1 42 50 404700 48.0 1,974 2,350
FLA ost 12 12 12 4140 40.0 492 600
A At 90 100 00 4540 45.0 40080 55100
IDAHO 1/4 64 $7 65 84.0 52.0 39456 39392
TL ’ 490 410 3600 5440 57,0 269460 234780
INO ‘ 250 _ 220 350 52.0 45.0 134000 104860
TOWA ' 14500 1.475 1.880 53.0 56.0 799800 874025
KANS ' 350 240 2500 40.0 41.0 69000 = 10,080
Ky o/s 10 10 9 41,0 42.0 410 350
lave 8 lo 9 33.0 48,0 266 430
MAINE 1/8 42 37 446 5460 53.0 29268 19926
MD Ove 24 25 25 55.0 48.0 44320 15350
MICH ot 379 385 360 5640 50,0 205720 19,635,
MINN = t 8,000 24060 20410 © 50,5 63,0 1034000 92,700
Miss lst 27 23 23° 6040 45.0 1,080 966
40 ‘ 100 170 168 39.0 52.0 39900 69800
MONT ' 250 230 2600 43.0 38,0 100750 = 104810
NEBR ' 590 640 $80 4960 5600 284910 = -26 4880
Ney o1/t 3 3 3 55.0 4600 165 1446
Nv it 7 8 B 4340 47,0 301 408
NY ' 350 315 3100 57.0 50.0 194950 164380 15,500
nc ' 80 _ 80 7S 060 42,0 4000 39600 46150
NDaK ot 39370 i180 16750 4140 3950 = 860170 44484068 250
auto) ot 500 $00 410 61.0 62,0 309500 27,800 24,320
OKLA 1 120 132 1803320 46.0 39960 59940 69900
oreo ot 80 80 90 5040 53.0 41000 49160 44770
PA ' 375 365 35000 52.0 45.0 199125 184250 195750
sc ist 73 70 65 440 44.0 30212 29870 24860
gs Oak ot Bo230 1,420 25890 44.0 54.0 985120 424600 += -139, 860
TENN I/t 30 32 294060 42.0 1,200 1,440 3,218
TEX t 650 390 600 ©3040 40.0 199500 144430 284000
UTAH 1/1 13 12 12 56.0 $2.0 728 684 624
va wt 40 42 43° 42.0 4240 15680 14890 19806
WASH t 45 45 45 5260 4500 25340 25565 20025
wa ist 18 16 1643.0 41,0 174 656 656
WIs : 34350 1,280 1.2000 55.0 63.0 749250 554040 = 784600
wyo | 1/t 50 53 57 4060 42.0 21000 2638 84394
us 113,609 12,392 14,400 4863 52.6 6570660 562.452 757,589

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARREED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977

B-4

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


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B-17

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977


Growing conditions in Florida have been good. The January freeze killed back most young
cane to ground level. While the crop has made good recovery, it lacks the size of recent years.
Hawaii reports all plantations are operating normally with no adverse effect from weather con-
ditions, The crop in Louisiana is rebounding from the prolonged cold winter and dry spring and
summer. Stands are good but growth is 6-12 inches short of norma). Borer infestation has been
Tight to date. The crop in the lower Rio-Grande Valley is currently in good condition with irri-
gation being applied on a routine basis.

HOPS: The Nation's production of hops is forecast at 54.6 million pounds this year, 6 percent

below 1976 and off 2 percent from the 1975 crop. Area for harvest, at 30,600 acres, is
down 1 percent (300 acres) from last year. Yields are expected to average 1,783 pounds per acre,
well below the average of last year, but slightly above 1975.

Washington, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. output, expects 7 percent less
production than last year because of a slight acreage cutback and lower expected yields. Uncer~
tain water supplies caused late stringing by some growers, but harvest is expected to begin on
schedule in mid-August and continue into September.

California expects a 2 percent larger crop because of a higher estimated yield, Most fields
are in good condition, Idaho's crop is forecast 4 percent below last year because of decreases
in both acreage and yield. In Oregon, the crop has been developing weli but moisture is needed
and estimated production is down 2 percent from 1976

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: August 1 pasture and range feed condition for the United States averaged
64 percent. This is 6 points below a year ago and 14 points below the
1966-75 average for this date.

Drought conditions exist in many southeastern States, eastern States and Iowa, Michigan,
North Dakota, and California, The only major area with pastures substantially better than a year
ago includes the States of Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota and
Wisconsin,

APPLES: Commercial production of apples is now forecast at 6.9 billion pounds, a slight improve-
ment from a month ago and 8 percent greater than last year's total output. The 1977
crop will, however, fall short of the 1975 record by 8 percent. Increases from July 1 were

most notable in the Northeast and Virginia where recent rainfall brought relief from earlier

dry conditions.

The crop in the Eastern States is now estimated at 2.7 billion pounds, up 3 percent from
last month and 14 percent above the freeze-damaged 1976 crop. New York's expected production
increased to 900 million pounds, 5 percent above July 1 and 10 percent more than in 1976. Rain-
fall during the last month aided apple sizing which had been slow because of the drier than
normal early summer. The Red Delicious crop still appears light. Production in New England at
322 million pounds is 1 percent greater than forecast a month earlier and 11 percent above last
year's total. The crop is generally developing well in New England despite some lingering dry
areas in Vermont where sizes continue below normal. Pennsylvania's crop of 430 million pounds
remained stable under favorable July weather. Mositure and apple sizes are good. In Virginia,
the 1977 production is now forecast at 300 mitI{on pounds, a sharp improvement from Tast month
and 42 percent above the short crop produced in 1976. July rainfall was near normal in much of
the upper Shenandoah Valley, although other areas remain short to adequate, and apple sizes are
running somewhat below normal. Harvest of early varieties js now past the peak. The West
Virginia and North Carolina crops slipped somewhat from last month to 205 and 270 million pounds,
respectively. Dry conditions in West Virginia resulted in some trees shedding leaves.

In the Central States, production is now forecast at 989 million pounds, 13 percent higher
than the 1976 totaT, but still nearly one-fourth lower than the 1975 output. Prospects remained
steady from July 1 in all States except Indiana and Wisconsin which declined slightly because of
hot, dry weather. Michigan's 540 million pound crop received rain in late July, but sizes are
still smaller than normal. 7

The Western States expect the crop to total 3.2 billion pounds, off slightly from the
forecast Tast month, but still ahead of the previous two seasons. Washington's record crop 2.3
billion pounds remained in good condition with favorable July weather. Fruit sizing is ahead of
last year. Orchardists completed thinning operations, and are busy with spraying activities.

In California, the lack of water has reduced apple sizes and the crop is now estimated at 480
million pounds, down 10 million pounds from last month but equa) to the 1976 total. The Oregon
crop also declined slightly from July 1 to 155 million pounds. Apples in both Hood River and
Milton-Freewater are sizing well and quality appears good.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT: Production of winter wheat is forecast at 1,526 million bushels, down one percent
from the July forecast, 3 percent less than a year ago and 8 percent under the
record high 1975 crop. The decrease in production is due mainly to fewer acres for harvest.

The national) average yield per harvested acre is expected to be 31.4 bushels compared with
31.6 bushels last year and 32.1 bushels in 1975. The crop will be harvested from an estimated
48.6 million acres, 2 percent less than last year and 6 percent less than two years ago.

Harvest of the Nation's winter wheat crop was completed ahead of normal in most areas and
only the Northern States and the Pacific Northwest, where the crop normally matures later, were
still harvesting on August 1. Idaho winter wheat was 50 percent ripe and 15 percent harvested
by August 1 while Montana growers had harvested 25 percent of their acreage. Harvesting is well
along in Eastern Oregon and in full swing in western areas. In Washington, harvest is one to
two weeks ahead of normal and progressing throughout the State.

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 winter wheat forecast computes to 1.7 percent.
At the 90 percent confidence level, the August 1 forecast is not expected to differ from the
final estimate by more than 2.9 percent or approximately 44 million bushels.

Changes in production between the August ) forecast and final estimates of production after
harvest have averaged 21 million bushels over the past decade, ranging from 3 million bushels
to 42 million bushels. The August forecast was above the final estimate 8 of the 10 years by
an average of 20 million bushels and below twice by an average of 21 million bushels.

DURUM WHEAT: Production of durum wheat is expected to total 82.9 million bushels, 4 percent les:

than forecast on July 1, 39 percent Jess than last year and 33 percent below two
years ago. Sharp reductions in acres for harvested from last year as well as lower yields caused
the decline in production,

Total acres for harvest is estimated at 3.1 million compared with 4.6 million last year.
Large percentage declines occurred in the Southwest but major acreage reduction occurred in North
Dakota and Montana with harvested acres down by 30 and 31 percent, respectively.

An average yield of 27.0 bushels per harvested acre is expected based on August ] conditions.
This is 1.5 bushels below the July forecast and 2.4 bushels less than last year's yield which was
influenced by the high yielding varieties in the Southwest, but is 0.6 bushels greater than the
1975 crop yield.

Generally, favorable weather prevailed in the northern growing areas during the first half
of July. Ory conditions in some areas have placed stress on the crop. The crop is maturing
ahead of normal and combining is progressing ahead of normal.

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 durum wheat production forecast computes to 8.6
percent. At the 90 percent confidence level, the August 1 forecast is not expected to differ
from the final estimate by more than 14.8 percent or approximately 12 million bushels.

During the past 10 years, changes in production from the August 1 forecast to the final
estimate have averaged 4.{ million bushels, ranging from a low of virtually no change to a high
of 10.9 million bushels. The August 1 forecast was above the final estimate 4 of the 10 years by
an average of 3.6 million bushels and below § times hy an average of 4,5 million bushels.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: The second production forecast of 1977 spring wheat other than durum is 432

milliom bushels, 3 percent below last year's crop but up 3 percent from the
duly forecast, and 20 percent above 1975. The reduced production from last year is due to a 10
percent reduction in acreage for harvest with a higher average yield partially offsetting. Acre-
age expected to be harvested for grain is 15.0 million acres, below the 16.7 million acres har-
vested in 1976 but above the 13.4 million acres in 1975. The expected yield for the Nation of
28.7 bushels per acre compares with 26.7 bushels in 1976 and 26.8 in 1975.

Harvesting of the Nation's other spring wheat crop was well ahead of normal on August 1.
Combining in South Dakota was 68 percent complete, behind last year's pace but well ahead of the
40 percent normally completed. North Dakota farmers had 15 percent of their crop harvested by
August 1 compared with 10 percent in 1976 and a normal of only 2 percent. Minnesota's crop re-
mained nearly 3 weeks ahead of normal with 42 percent harvested. This compares with 34 percent
Jast year and a normal of 12 percent. Harvesting was just getting underway in Montana and Idaho
while the drought-plagued Washington crop was expected to be harvested by mid-August,

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD. SRS, USDA


DRY EDIBLE BEANS vy

CROP AND STATE q AREA HARVESTED ‘ YIELD : PRODUCTION
t 7 T THD 7 TINT + t t ND
44975 1976 49977 41975 14975 148771 97S tists s_1977
. 19000 ACRES POUNDS 19000 cwr
LARGE LIMA AEANS '
CALIF ‘ 24.0 35.0 33,0 1970018498 14880 406 522 on
AABY LIMA BEANS '
CALIF 4 20.6 ony 19.0 25000 LyHOG 2908 a6 ae ao
BEANS OTHER THAN LIMAS :
caLt 1 11040 123.0 120.0 1961014545 14978
OY EDIBLE AEANS '
CALIF 1 156.0 172.0 1469214566 21969
cola t 200.0 158.0 90 900 14887
TD4MO t 122.0 14830-19670 2287
KANS, : 12.5 19170 14200 150
arcH ' 515.0 900 930 85923
MINN : 3140 800 867 403
MONT ‘ 6.0 29600 16700 30
NEAR 1 100.0 396n0 14650 14700
wy 40.0 1913014070 480
W DAK ‘ 11040 970 150 16865,
UTAH : 1.0 420 390 z
WASH ' 19.0 1998019750 342
wo 1 28,0 14660 16730 468
OTHER, ant 18 S18 te6AR | 14346 105 36
ws 1 1968543" 131763 1s1AR 14159 W70e622_ M21 TAIT
1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED,
2¢ TLLINOTS AND TNDTANA,.
ORY EDIBLE PEAS v
STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED 4 YIELO 1 PRODUCTION
‘ 7 t TOT 71a + 7 7 IRD
11975 1_1976 4 1977 1 1975 1 4976 41977: 1978s __ 4976 1 1977
‘ 19060 ACRES POUNDS 19000 wr
‘
ToaHo 6900 48.0 6760 14390 14720 650 826 436
ORES 2/1 208 14400
WASH 11740 1709 Ono 1488514720 550 19326 539
vs t 14985 12540 16840 _1yA49 14720 591 24159 975

17 EXCLUDES BOTH WRINKLED SEED PEAS AND AUSTRIAN WINTER

Pras,
2/ DISCONTINUED AFTER

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977

1975

B14

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


ALL MAY

STaTE 1 AREA HARVESTED ' YIELD ' PRODUCTION

' + ' NOt ¥ Le oa ' ’ IND

i 1975 3 1976 6 1977 1975 1 1976 & 1997 1 1975 4 1976 + 1977

t 19060 ACRES TONS 19000 TONS

:
ALA ' 630 650 630 1,80 1.70 1630 19134 14105 819
ARIZ t 255 250 260 ©6425 64286 14593 14570 19632
ARK ' 790 740 800 1,86 1468 1663 15452 1s241 14306
CALIF 14650 19630 19670 $463 4463 4450 79642 7,554 79513
coLo 1 19440 1,400 19363 1,92 201 1.84 29760 20814 29514
CONN 1 9s 92 89 2,05 16893099 195 17% 172
DEL ' 23 22 22 2504 «=o 2ale 2008 47 48 44
FLA 1 207 219 2260 (1,95 1498 2.60 404 427 362
OA 1 470 465 400 2,50 2430 3.00 19175 14070 400
IDAHO ot 14330 14310 15345 3,340 3422 crrrst 45201 34885
Tk 1 19250 14200 1,210 2,84 2.81 39549 39375 35498
IND t 945 900 920 2,39 2439 2 29258 29150 2228
tows ' 20450 20400 263500 2,82 266228 61897 60768 6,408
KANS ' 29280 29275 25330 © 2,08 1.99 2618 40743 49535 5085
KY ' 19528 19528 19558 1,89 1.96 2697 20890 25988 3,062
La f 360 370 355 2.16 1.92 3466 177 710 589
MAINE 4 ale 212 200 1,65 2404 1.58 384 433 316
MD 1 asi 246 248 2e86 2439 9D. 617 589 478
MASS : . 12 112 112-2419 2413 202d 245 238 247
MICH ' 1300 19260 19300 245324391493 39290 39010 24506
MINN ' 3e2l0 39250 39260 2,49) 1677 2060 89005 59765 8+ 783
MISS ' 648 663 652 1,81 1670 166) 19172 19130 19047
Mo ' 30400 39350 39655 1,67 1.49 1073 5683 4,998 51988
MONT ' 29400 20270 202901484 1479 BT 49609 49059 3,826
NEBR ' 39950 35950 3.985 1,65 1.56 2.82 69503 69163 10267
NEV ' 449 460 420 1,97 2404 = 2a 02 885 939 849
NH ' 90 94 89 2.97 16941073 177 182 154
NJ ' 9 122 125 2,56 2044 2423 305 298 279
NMEX ot 272 278 2620 3,54) 03,32 3459 963 924 996
NY ' 29300 2400 253502422 0202308 Selle 5,352 34958
Nc t 335 350 3801464 1436 549 477 473
N DAK of 39540 39510 39490 1,42 lle S025 34996 3,789
OHIO ’ 19535 19560 19550 2,36 2430 39620 34593 39200
OKLA ' 19735 19760 1981024131498 39730 39427 3,408
oREG ot 19040 29060 39040 02,32 2.27 203968 20410 29313
Pa 1 19970 15970 19990 2423 2420 41399 49325 35508
RI 1 9 9 9 1489 2.00 1? 18 yy
sc ' 228 230 240 «2,20 2600 495 460 384
S DAK ot = 4710 40300 40620 01,21 0.66 59694 2840 55719
TENN : 19200 19210 19240 1,82 152 19822 19845 1,888
TEX t 29250 29150 29250 2,33 2450 Be aR 59245 59370 4,617
UTAH ' $66 580 $69 2,86 3414 2069 19670 1,820 14530
VT t 485 483 468 1,61 1.89 1438 782 913 633
va 1 985 975 1900014801432 1616 1s771 14279 14160
WASH 4 877 685 906 2.73 2,80 2663 25391 20476 24381
wova { 605 $95 600 1,660 edt 1.26 19002 839 rar
WIS 1 39970 35980 49040 2,67 = 204 205 109602 85126 104708
Wyo ' 19180 14190 19161 1,56 1,56 1.648 19838 14854 19719
us 1 619673600915 6106592515 1498 2.02 1329729 1200876 124,378

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP_DEVELOPMENT EARLIEST EVER; SOIL MOISTURE SHORT BUT
RAINFALL TIMELY IN MAJOR GRAIN REGIONS

Corn continued to develop very rapidly although Corn Belt precipitation was subnormal in
some areas. Above normal temperatures pushed the crop along, and the extremely high readings at
mid-month apparently did not unduly stress corn in the North Central States. Denting was wide-
spread in the southern States and harvesting was underway in Texas and Florida; farmers in some
States diverted grain acreage to forage uses. In the Corn Belt, denting was observed by August 1,
about 2 weeks earlier than normal.

Soybean podding ranged from 20 to 75 percent in the North Central States by August 7; devel-
opment was from 10 to 20 points ahead of 1976's rate. In the South Central States podding was
around 30 percent or less. Cotton bol? set was almost complete except in Oklahoma; percent com-
pletion ranged from 77 to 98 percent by the end of July. Texas growers picked about 1 percent of
the 1977 crop. Sorghum harvest extended from the Texas Blacklands southward and reached 39 per-
cent by August 1, ahead of 1976's 26 percent and the 34 percent average. In other major States
heading ranged from 30 to 76 percent, significantly ahead of most recent years.

Most of the winter wheat crop was harvested with combining now active only in the Pacific
Northwest and northern Mountain States. Spring wheat combining surpassed the average pace with
harvest ranging from 5 percent complete in Montana to 68 percent in South Dakota. Oats harvest
in the major production area was almost complete in southern portions, but damp weather delayed
operations in North Dakota.

Soil moisture rated short in the West, the Atlantic Coast States from Virginia to the
Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Tennessee and in several western North Central States at the end of
July; elsewhere soil moisture was short to adequate. Above normal temperatures around mid-July
stressed crops and put a heavy demand on soil moisture. Timely precipitation fell to keep
most crops in fair to good condition except in the Southeast where Crops were in poor to fair
condition. Above normal July precipitation fell over much of the Southeast but it came too late
for most crops.

RECORD FEED GRAIN PRODUCTION LIKELY

Production of the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, oats and barley} is expected to total
193 million metric tons, 0.2 percent above the previous record 1976 production. Prospects for
oats and barley improved during July as harvested yields turned out better than expected in the
West North Central States. Probable 1977 corn production declined 4 percent during July. High
temperatures and spotty precipitation patterns were most evident in Iowa, Indiana, Kansas and
Missouri. Substantial decreases were recorded in the Southeast as a severe drought continued to
grip much of the area. The first forecast of sorghum production placed probable production at
less than 1 percent above last year.

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 feed grain production forecast computes to 5.3

percent. At the 90 percent confidence level, the August | forecast is not expected to differ
from the final estimate by more than 9.1 percent or approximately 17.6 million metric tons.

FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION LARGE 3UT BELOW LAST TWO YEARS

Food grain production is expected to total 60.6 million metric tons, 6 percent below last
year and also 6 percent below the record 1975 production. Spring wheat other than durum improved
during July as a result of better than anticipated yields in Minnesota and South Dakota.

Durum prospects declined 4 percent and winter wheat 7 percent. Rice production will be below
last year. Rye is expected to be somewhat larger than in 1976.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



RELIABILITY OF AUGUST 1 PRODUCT] ON FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield surveys taken about
August |. Based on surveys made during July, some adjustments have been made in acreages pub-
lished previously. The August 1 yield surveys included mailed reports from farmers for all crops
and actual field observations and measurements for wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton and some fruit
and nut crops. farmers provided appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for
crops on their farms and for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided smal} plot ob-
servations, counts and measurements in a probability sample, These surveys are subject to sam-
pling and non-sampling type errors that are common to all surveys. More importantly, the produc-
tion forecasts are subject to change due to future weather effect and other factors that directly
affect final production but cannot be measured currently.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in this report, the
"Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is included in the
comments for selected crops. This is computed by expressing the deviations between the August 1
production forecasts and the final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging
the squared percentage deviations for the 1957-76 twenty year period; the square root of this
average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made
concerning expected errors in the current forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates,
assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing
recent year forecasts. For example, a Root Mean Square Error of 5.0 percent means that chances
are about 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not differ from the final estimate
by more than 5.0 percent, and about 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 8.6 percent.
Approximate confidence intervals can be computed by applying these vercentage deviations to the
current production forecasts.

JULY WEATHER SUMMARY

Hot weather, thunderstorms and tornadoes marked a typical July. Average temperature for
the month was above normal east of the Rockies, Precipitation varied widely with all regions
having areas of above normal rainfall as well as areas of below normal rainfall. Corn Belt
temperatures averaged 2 to 4° above normal. Although roughly one-half of this region received
below normal precipitation, rainfall was sufficiently well spaced to relieve severe moisture
stress on most crops. A large area in the Carolinas and Virginia received only 20 to 30 percent
of normal July rainfall.

July began with typical warm weather, showers and thunderstorms. Showers were especially
welcome in the Southeast where much of the area from Mississippi through Georgia was dampened.
The first week of the month brought showers, thunderstorms and some tornadoes to nearly all areas
from the Rockies to the East Coast. Needed rain covered most of the very dry area of eastern
North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Much of Nebraska and eastward across the northern half
of Towa enjoyed one to two inches of rain. Significant rain fell in the lower Mississippi
Valley, the Ohio Valley and in central Florida; but from central Alabama through northern Florida
and Georgia northward to western Virginia, the showers were light and spotty. Most of the East
was warmer than normal. The Central Plains and parts of the Corn Belt averaged 3 to 6° warmer
than normal.

The second week of July was even warmer than the first. Only the Pacific Northwest was
cooler than normal, The warmest areas were again the Central Plains and the area from Iowa into
Ohio where temperatures averaged 6 to 9° warmer than normal for the week. One hundred degree
readings occurred at a number of stations in these areas. Good rains came to much of the warmest
areas, tending to offset the high rate of moisture depletion due to the hot weather, The warm
moist air resulted in extensive thunderstorm activity throughout the week. Heavy-amounts of rain
fell in parts of the Midwest and in the South Central States but again showers were light and
spotty from western Virginia to Georgia.

The week following mid-July brought even more widespread shower activity. All the way from
the Intermountain and Plateau regions in the West to the East Coast, showers of varying intensity
fell during the week. Exceptions were western North Dakota, eastern Montana, parts of Virginia
and Texas where little or no rain occurred. Most of the northern portion of the Corn Belt had

1 to 2 inches of rain from shower activity. Heavy rain in west central Pennsylvania resulted in
catastrophic flooding at Johnstown. Warm weather persisted but some cooling began in the
northern States. However, temperatures for the week averaged well above normal over most of the
U.S. Every State but Washington and Oregon reported temperatures above 90° on at least one day.

The last week of July again produced widespread precipitation from the western Rockies to
the East Coast although many areas reported only light showers. A frontal system moved into the
South and caused heavy rain in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and eastern North and South Carolina.
The rain came too late for some crops but was nonetheless helpful. The Nztion cooled to near
normal temperatures in most areas but parts of New England averaged 3 to 6° cooler than normal.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PEACHES: Production of peaches in the United States is now forecast at 2.9 billion pounds. This

is 3 percent less than forecast last month and 4 percent below last year. Excluding
California Clingstone peaches, the crop is forecast at 1.4 billion pounds, 5 percent below last
season.

California's Clingstone crop is forecast at 1,450 million pounds, 3 percent below last year's
crop of 1,496 mitlion pounds. Sizing and overripeness because of unusually hot days and nights
has been a problem for early varieties. No size problems are anticipated for late varieties un-
Tess there is another heat wave. California Freestone peach production is forecast at 400 million
pounds, a decrease of 14 percent from last year's crop of 464 million pounds. Peaches are smal]
but quality is good.

The South Carolina peach crop, at 280 million pounds, is 2 percent below last month but 10
percent above last year. Sizes of fruit continued smaller than normal because of the dry, hot
weather that has plagued growers through most of the growing season. Michigan weather during
duly was warm with little or no damage caused by adverse weather. In New Jersey, fruit sizes in
some orchards has been small but the recent rain is expected to improve the size of later varie-
ties. Early peaches in Pennsylvania were small in size because of lack of moisture. duly weath-
er has been favorable with ample moisture and late peaches are expected to have good size.

PEARS: Production of all pears in the U.S. is now forecast at 775,900 tons, unchanged from the
July 1 forecast but 8 percent below last year's production, Bartlett pear production in
California, Washington and Oregon is expected to tota? 549,000 tons, 6 percent less than the 1976
crop. Harvest of good quality fruit is underway in California. Washington harvest is expected
to be in good volume by mid-August. In.Oregon, sizes are running smal] to average and limited
picking was expected to begin in early August.

Production of pears other than Bartlett in the Pacific Coast States is placed at 181,000 .
tons, 21 percent less than Tast season, The crop is developing well in Washington, but fruit is
sizing slowly in Oregon, Harvest is expected to be underway in the three States by mid to late
August.

GRAPES: The initial U.S. forecast of the 1977 grape crop is placed at a record 4.4 million tons,
~~" 3 percent more than last season and 1 percent above the 1975 crop. This year’s record
prospects in California at 4,15 million tons are up 1 percent from last month and 7 percent above
Vast season. The changes in California are based on an objective measurement survey conducted in
duly. California production of wine varieties is forecast at 1.6 million tons, 18 percent above
last year. Vines continue in excellent shape, Raisin varieties in California at 2.1 million
tons are 1 percent less than Yast year. Harvest of good quality fruit began in early August.
Table varieties forecast at 450,000 tons are 1? percent above the 1976 crop. Development of the
crop continues excellent with harvest underway in some areas.

The New York crop, forecast at 92,000 tons is down one-half from last year because of con-
siderable winter injury and frost damage as well as an extended bloom period with poor polli-
nation.

PRUNES & PLUMS: The 1977 prune & plum crop is forecast at 65,000 tons, down 10 percent from last

year's production. Frosts in late April and early May damaged the Michigan plum
crop, but July weather was favorable. In Oregon, prune and plum harvest is underway on a short
crop in Milton-Freewater and will begin in the Willamette Valley in mid-September. In Washington,
trees came through the winter in fairly good condition. Bloom & pollination weather was good.
Harvest is under way and will continue well into September.

WALNUTS: The 1977 walnut crop forecast at 200,800 tons is unchanged from the July 1 forecast but
is 9 percent above the 1976 crop. In California, water shortages on the west side are
causing stress with trees in some isolated areas dropping fruit. Generally nuts are sizing wel).

MINT FOR OIL: The 1977 peppermint for oi? crop is forecast at 4.2 million pounds, 12 percent.

above a year earlier. Acreage for harvest at 83,700 is up 16 percent. Late
May and early June frosts coupled with high winds reduced acreage in Wisconsin, but acreage in
all other states is larger than in 1976. Lower yields are forecast in all states except
Oregon where yields are expected to equal last year.

The spearmint for oi) crop is forecast at 2.1 million pounds, up 26 percent from 1976.
Acreage for harvest is up 19 percent. Slightly higher yields are expected in Idaho and
Washington, but lower yields are indicated in Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin,

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-19 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


U.S. CORN AND SOYBEANS
August 1 Forecast as Percent of Final Production
PERCENT OF FINAL

Corn

110

100
90
solr a st a | yp a
1965 1970 1975 1980
son 0, $n8 60-7717

OATS: Production cf oats is forecast at 758 million bushels, up 35 percent from last year and

15 percent above 1975. Yield per harvested acre is expected to average 52.6 bushels, up
7.2 bushels from 1976 and 3.2 bushels above the forecast a month earlier, The increase from the
July 1 forecast is the result of increases in yield in the major oat producing West North Central
States. Farmers reported better yields than were earlier anticipated in that region.

The increases in the West North Central States more than offset yield decreases in Montana,
Kansas, North Carolina and California. In Minnesota, combining is more than 2 weeks ahead of
normal. Oat harvesting in South Dakota was 89 percent complete by August 1, which is well ahead
of the normal pace of 58 percent.

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 oats production forecast computes to 3.9 percent.
At the 90 percent confidence levei, the August 1 forecast is not expected to differ from the final
estimate by more than 6.7 percent or approximately 51 million bushels.

Changes between the August 1 forecast and the final estimate have averaged 21 million bushels
for the past 10 years, ranging from 4 to 45 million bushels. The August 1 estimate has been above
the final estimate 6 times by an average of 27 million bushels and below the final estimate 4
times by an average of 12 million bushels.

ALL WHEAT: Production of al] wheat is forecast at 2,04] million bushels. This is 5 percent

less than last year's record high 2,147 million bushels, 4 percent below two year's
ago and the third largest of record. The reduction from last year results from fewer acres for
harvest.

The average yield of all wheat is indicated at 30.6 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.3
bushel from last year but 0.1] bushel less than two years ago. Growers expect to harvest 66.6
million acres compared with 70.8 acres last year. This is 90 percent of the planted acres and
compares with 88 percent harvested for grain last year.

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 all wheat production forecast computes to 2.1
percent. At the 90 percent confidence level, the August 1 forecast is not expected to differ
from the final estimate by more than 3.6 percent or approximately 73 million bushels.

Changes between the August ] forecast and final estimates have averaged 21 million bushels
during the past decade, ranging from 2 million to 53 million bushels. The August 1 forecast

was above the final in 7 of the ten years, by an average of 19 million and below 3 times by an
average of 23 million bushels.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT
.

STATE i AREA HARVESTED : YIELD 1 PRODUCTION

' 1 1 IND ¢ T T INO? 1 IND

4 1975 1 1976 4 1977 1 1975 1 1976 1 1977 + 19754 1976 4 1977

' 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

!
ALA s/t 135 125 i20 2600 © 2720 2b 39260 30375 30120
ARIZ ' 320 112 63-7100 7500) 72eG@ = 229720 89400 45536
ARK ' 520 r10 700 3000 ©3900 3540 159600 274690 244500
Cale 14 986 860 650 6200 = 6240 6440 619132 $3320 414600
COLO ' 20240 29200 20360 2205 2165 2340 = 500400 © 479300 = 54 280
OL oft 34 31 29 3400 3560 33.0 14156 1,085 957
FLA Aa 20 22 2. 2600 3000 27.0 S20 660 567
Ga vt 135 115 {12 2720 = 3140 3200 39665 39565 35472
IDAHO ot 880 890 8300 4100 39.0 369080 390160 325370
Tue 1 14730 15850 19600 3960 43.0 679470 72s150 68800
IND ' 19500 19600 19265 4300 $3.0 649500 «= 874600 «= 544395,
IOWA 1/1 100 85 65 3460 34.0 30400 24975 2,210
KANS 1 129100 119300 129300 © 2940 20.8 3504900 339,000 3509550
KY 1 392 330 270 3400 37.0 119968 109230 95990
La Vy 2 3 #0 YO0d 3060 ’00 16155 10200
MD ws 156 138 123 3400 5304 59264 45182
MICH t 1,020 990 930 38.0 385760 379620 374200
MINN lst 80 163 105 2360 19840 44238 25940
MISS 1/1 185 180 125 2 res) 59220 39875
Mo ' 1,470 15650 19850 3300 489510 54,450 604450
MONT 1 35000 39080 20600 3540 1059000 98,560 759600
NEBR : 3,070 29950 39050 3200 98s260 942400 = 1064750
NEV 1st it iw 8 7000 770 15 S20
Ny lst 54 5s 42 3620 19944 29310 15638
N MEX 1/1 387 213 349 2600 109062 49899 84376
Ny ! 190 165 170-3960 Teo 59940 69630
Nc a 275 240 195 3140 89525 64960 5.850
N DAK 1/1 123 135 1260-255 39137 3780 2,608
oHTO 1 1,770 19650 19540 4250 749360 664000 729380
OKLA t 69700 69300 6500 240 1609800 151,200 = 1754500
ORES 1 1910 19220 1,080 4840 53:20 $6120 414.040
Pa 1 345 315 260 ©3360 119385 94450 8,580
sc ist 158 145 105 27,0 49185 39625 34065
S$ DAK 4 770 970 680 3000 239100 177460 189360
TENN 1 310 335 280 3160 99610 129395 109080
TEX ry 59700 40700 49700 23,0 131lsl00 1039400 = 117500
UTAH Ist 238 222 180 24,0 59712 5,217 4140
va ' 292 240 215 3140 99052 75680 6450
WASH 1 20740 296685 29700 = 4940 1349260 1320710 914800
WA lst 17 14 oe 3260 544 448 363
wIs) 1/1 72 64 60 3160 29232 2368 20280
Wyo ost _ 250 240 240 © 2540 69250 61000 55280
us 181,567 49953548551 32.3 3264 196529923 115660074 15260044

I/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECASTs

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION [=

Released: = aygust 11, 1977 Statistical Reporting
3:00 P.M. ET Service

U.S. Department
of Agriculture

Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

Corn production is forecast at 6,092 million bushels based on conditions as of
August 1, 4 percent (239 million bushels) below the July 1 forecast and 2 per-
cent below the record 1976 production.

Sorghum Grain production is forecast at 725 million bushels, fractionally above
ast year.

Feed Grain production (corn, sorghum, oats and barley combined) is forecast at 193
million metric tons, 0.2 percent more than last year.

All Wheat production is placed at 2,041 million bushels, 5 percent less than last
year's record crop and only slightly below last month's forecast. Durum pros-
pects declined 4 percent during July and winter wheat 1 percent while spring
wheat increased 3 percent.

Food Grain production (wheat, rye and rice combined) is expected to total 61 million
metric tons, 6 percent less than in 1976.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high of 1,602 million bushels, 27 percent
Targer than the 1976 crop.

Oilseed production (soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts and flaxseed combined) is forecast
at 50 million metric tons, 25 percent more than last year.

All Cotton production is forecast at 13.5 million bales, 28 percent above 1976.
All Tobacco production is forecast at 1,796 million pounds, 16 percent below 1976.
e flue-cured corp of 1,013 million pounds is down 23 percent and burley out-
put of 629 million pounds is 7 percent less than a year earlier.
Sugar Crops - Sugarbeet prospects at 24.3 million tons are down 17 percent from the

previous year. The sugarcane forecast of 27.4 million tons is down 5 percent
from 1976

CrPr 2-2 (8-77) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


COTTON: Atl cotton production is forecast at 13.5 million bales, 28 percent above the 1976

crop. Expected production consists of 13.4 million bales of Upland cotton, up 28 per-
cent, and 97,100 bales of American-Pima up 52 percent. Cottonseed production for 1977 based on
a three year average lint-seed ratio is forecast at 5.3 million tons, 28 percent more than in
1976,

Cotton acreage planted in 1977 is estimated at 13.4 million acres, up 15 percent from 1976
and 17,500 acres above the June report. Based on surveys conducted after July 1, an increase in
Texas more than offset downward adjustments in Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and
South Carolina. Plantings of American-Pima cotton totaled 80,100 and are 76 percent above last
year. Planted acreages by States are: Arizona, 48,000; Texas, 23,000; New Mexico, 9,000; and
California, 100.

Producers expect to harvest 12.8 million acres of a?] cotton this year compared with 10.9
million last year, an increase of 18 percent. Abandonment is expected to be less than for the
last three years. Average lint yield per harvested acre is forecast at 506 pounds compared with
465 pounds produced in 1976.

Texas and Oklahoma Upland cotton production is forecast at 5.0 million bales in 1977, an
increase of 43 percent from last year. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 6.4 million acres,
an increase of 32 percent. Harvesting is making rapid progress in the Rio Grande Valley with
favorable weather conditions. Some harvesting has begun in the Coastal Bend area. Excellent
crop prospects for West Texas and Oklahoma reflect the favorable growing conditions which have
prevailed.

In the Delta States - Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Missouri- 3.6 million
bales are forecast, 25 percent above 1976. Acres for harvest are down 7 percent from last year.
Crop conditions are good to excellent, having benefitted from ideal temperatures and adequate
moisture supplies. The crop is well advanced with some bolls beginning to open. Damage from
insects has been relatively light, however, spraying for bollworms is active.

Production in the Southeastern States - Georgia, Atabama, South Caratina, and North Carolina
- is forecast to total 700,000 bales, down 8 percent from 1976. Acreage for harvest in these
States is unchanged from Jast year. Production prospects have been influenced by drought
conditions in much of the area. Recent moisture has temporarily eased stressed conditions.
The crop is early with large bolls beginning to open, Conditions are varied from poor to good.

The California, Arizona, and New Mexico Upland crop is forecast at 4.2 million bales, up 23
percent from 1976. Acreage for harvest increased 26 percent in these States. Cotton prospects
are very good with cotton fruiting heavily despite concerns for water shortages. Surface water
supplies are limited and water tables are dropping.

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 cotton forecast computes to 7.8 percent. At the
90 percent confidence level, the August 1 forecast is not expected to differ from the final
estimate by more than 13.5 percent or approximately 1.8 million bales.

Differences between the August 1 All Cotton forecast and final ginnings during the past 10
years has averaged 07 million bales, ranging from 58,000 bales in 1968 to 1.8 million bales in

. The Bureau of the Census reports 85,466 bales ginned to August 1 compared with 47,194 bales
ginned to the same date in 1976 ana 29,835 baies in 1975,

SORGHUM: Sorghum for grain production is forecast at 725 mil’ion bushels, up fractionally from

million last year's production and 22 percent less than the record high 1973 crop of 930

Acreage to be harvested for grain, forecast at 14,1 million acres, is d
last year's 14.9 million acres and 9 percent below 1975. Yield per acre is forecace stage”
bushels, compared with last year's yield of 48.6 bushels per acre. Growers in 5 of the 7 major
sorghum States intend to harvest more acreage for grain this year than last, but this increase
was more than offset by the million acre decline in Texas along with a more modest reduction in
Oklahoma. Producers expect higher yields than last year except in Nebraska.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Ory conditions in the northwestern wheat States reduced yields and caused additional aban-
donment. In North Dakota and Minnesota, where over two-thirds of the Nation's spring wheat crop
is grown, moisture stress reduced yield potential in some areas but damage was limited as the
crop remained one to three weeks ahead of normal.

The Root Mean Square Error for the August | other spring wheat production forecast computes
to 7.5 percent. At the 90 percent confidence level, the August 1 forecast is not expected to
differ from the final estimate by more than 12.9 percent or approximately 56 million bushels.

During the past 10 years, changes in production from the August 1 forecast to the final
estimate averaged 18 million bushels, ranging from a low of 4 million to a high of 36 million
bushels. During that period, the August ? forecast was above the final estimate 4 times by an
average of 18 million bushels and below 6 times by an average ot 19 m*?Tion bushels.

SOYBEANS: Soybean production as of August 1 is forecast at 1,602 million bushels, the largest

crop of record. This total is 27 percent above a year ago and 4 percent above the
1975 and 1973 crops. Yield is set at 27.5 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from 1976, but 1.3
bushels below two years ago.

Planted acreage at a record high 59.3 million acres is up 18 percent from last year, 8 per-
cent more than 1975, and 5 percent above the previous record high in 1973. Acreage for harvest.
also a record high, is placed at 58.2 million acres, up 18 percent and 8 percent respectively
from 1976 and 1975, and 4 percent above the 1973 level.

AN] States in the North Central Region expect Indiana and Ohio expect higher yields than
last year. Minnesota yield is up 9.0 bushels to a record high 30.0 bushels per acre. Increase
of 6.0 to 7.5 bushels are expected in Missouri, North and South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas.
Illinois and Iowa -have smaller yield increases but significant increases in production as a
result of a larger average for harvest. The South Central States yields are variable compared
with a year ago with three States higher, three unchanged, and two Tower. All of the Atlantic
Coast States except New Jersey indicate lower yields than 1976 but because of larger acreages
only Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia expect less production in 1977 compared with last year.

As of August 1 soybeans in the North Central States ratéd fair to good with pod development.
advanced about 10 points beyond 1976. Acreage setting pods ranged from 20 percent in Michigan
and 30 percent in Kansas to 61 percent in South Dakota and 75 percent in Minnesota. Pod set in
the South Central States was about 30 percent with the crop in fair to good condition, The
southeastern area has suffered from dry soils and heavy insect infestations.

Survey data obtained in July indicates that farmers in the North Central States planted
more double cropped soybeans than intended earlier, while less were double cropped in other
producing States. The following table shows the final survey indications for 1977 double
cropped soybeans with comparisons for 1974-76,

SOYBEANS: PERCENT DOUBLE CROPPED

YEAR NORTH CENTRAL STATES OTHER STATES U.S.
Ls % is
1974 4 12 7
1975 4 12 7
1976 7 15 10
1977 5 W 8

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 soybean forecast computes to 5.3 percent. At
the 90 percent confidence level, the August 1 forecast is not expected to differ from the final
estimate by more than 9.1 percent or approximately 146 million bushels.

Production changes between the August 1 forecast and the final estimate averaged 48 million
bushels during the past 10 years, ranging from 1 to 99 million bushels. During those 10 years
the August 1 forecast was above the fina) estimate 4 times by an average of 65 million bushels
and below 6 times by an average of 37 million bushels.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-V1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX

PAGE
ALFALFA & ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY ........ccceceeuecececeeveee B-12
APPLES, COMMERCIAL ................. -  B-21
BARLEY ........-- » B- 5
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE B-14
CORN FOR GRAIN .... B- 2
COTTON .......- B-10
FLAXSEED . B- 9
GRAPES ... B-23
HAY, ALL ... B-11
HAY, OTHER . B-13
HOPS ........ B-21
MINT FOR OIL B-24
OATS wee eee e eee e eect eeeeceeeees B- 4
PASTURE & RANGE FEED CONDITION ..... B-20
PASTURE & RANGE FEED CONDITION MAP . A- 5
PEACHES ....... cece cece eee eee eee B-22
PEANUTS FOR NUTS B-10
PEARS ......005 B-23
PEAS, DRY EDIBLE ......... B-14
PLANTED ACREAGE OF CROPS . B- 1
POTATOES ......e eee cece B-15
POTATOES, AREA PLANTED . B-16
PRUNES & PLUMS ......... -.  B-24
RICE we. eee eee -. B- 8
RYE... eee eee B- 8
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN . B- 3
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS B- 9
SUGARBEETS .......0eeeeeee B-19
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR & SEED -.  B-20
SWEETPOTATOES .........008 -.  B-16
TOBACCO BY CLASS & TYPE «»  B-17

TOBACCO BY STATES ..
U.S. SUMMARY .
WALNUTS ........-0-
WHEAT, BY CLASSES .
WHEAT, DURUM ....
WHEAT, SPRING . .
WHEAT, WINTER 2c. ceccecee eee e cece cere cnet tener ete nese eeeeneee

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-25 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL OTHER HAY

Stave AREA HARVESTED ‘ YIELD ' PRODUCTION

t , 1 TNO 7 T IND? + TNO

1 1975 4 1976 4 1977 1 1975 § 1976 5 1977 4 1975 t 1976 + 1977

1 14060 ACRES TONS 14000 ‘TONS

'
ALA 1 630 650 630 1,80 1.70 3638 10136 19105: 819
ARIZ ' 40 40 40 2620245020 38 88 100 92
ARK ' 730 680 740 1675 1,60 1,55 19278 1,088 19147
CALIF ot 530 $30 530 1.95 1,80 2.70 19034 984 901
COLO ' 700 690 660 1,30 1,30 2,28 910 897 792
CONN ' 1% 70 68 = 2400 1,60 2.80 148 112 122
OEL ' 16 15 15 4.60 26 27 24
FLA ' 207 219 226 2.60 4046 427 362
Ga 1 470 465 400 200000” Le LTS 19070 400
IDAHO ot 300 230 295 3460 630 $80 472
Tue ' 480 470 440 2.00 1008 893 880
IND ' 525 500 480 1460 998 950 866
TOWA : 640 650 500 4698 19376 1,430 950
KANS 1 19300 19275 19270 14956 25785 1,905
ky 1 19340 19330 14360 20345 2,396 2,448
La 1 350 360 346 783 684 571
MAINE ot 194 192 178 310 384 276
MO 1 184 180 180 396 378 288
Mass 1 83 a2 a2 170 164 172
MICH 1 300 280 280 540 462 364
MINN ' 1,010 1,060 970 19515 16166 16455
MISS 1 635 650 640 19143 1.108 1,026
MO 1 29870 29850 21980 49305 39848 45664
MONT 1 19170 14100 19090 19580 14485 14308
NEBR 1 20250 29250 29200 19913 22090
NEV 1 273 280 240 287 264
Nw ' 71 75 70 128 112
NJ ' 64 68 70 134 119
NMEX ot 71 67 67 99 114
NY t 19370 19610 19400 29603 14960
NC ' 322 335 363 518 436
N DAK of 12890 14890 19870 12890 14683
OHTO 1 19010 19010 950 29071 10520
OKLA ' 19240 14260 19270 20108 15862
ORES 1 620 640 615 19054 953
Pa ' 19150 19150 15150 29185 1,576
RI ' 6 6 6 10 10
sc ' 228 230 240 495 384
SOAK 4 Zeilo 24000 25060 19794 19751
TENN ' Yello 19115 15140 19610 1,653
TEX ' 24050 14950 29040 49305 3,672
UTAH ’ 124 120 16 198 165
vt ' 388 385 370 $97 481
va 1 908 89s 915 14839 1,007
wash 1 377 385 381 64) 668
Wova ' $20 sis $14 806 540
WIS ' 950 970 960 2410 1.55 15995 14776
Wyo ' Tho 725 696 = 1400 1,05 Tlo 696
us 1349581 349359 34001 1.59 1.48 $4903 47,552
CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 8-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY

STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED 4 YIELO ' PRODUCTION
t fy ' TNO 7 1’ iy IND + t t TNO
4 1975 4 1976 1 1977 1 1975 | 1976 § 1977 ¢ 1975 1 1976 + 1977
1 19000 ACRES TONS 12000 TONS
1
ARIZ 1 21s 210 220 7.00 7.00 7.00 14505 1.470 1,540
ARK i) 60 60 60 2.90 2.55 2665 1% 153
CALIF ' 19220 19100 19140 6.00 $80 65608 61600 6,612
COLO ' 740 710 703 2.70 5 19850 1,917 1.722
CONN ) 21 22 a 2.80 aT 62
DEL 1 7 7 7 3.00 21 21
TDAKO 1 14030 12020 19050 3.55 30811 30621 30413
TLL 1 770 730 770 3.40 20541 2.482 2,618
IND ' 420 400 440 3.00 19260 19200 14364
OWA ' 15810 19750 19650 3.05 50521 55338 5,458
KANS ' 980 1,000 19060 2.75 29793 25750 34180
KY ' 188 198 198 3.00 545 594
La 1 lo 10 9 2.55 a4 26
MAINE 1 20 20 22 2645 a 49
MD 1 67 66 68 3.20 221 aur
MASS ' 290 30 30 2.45 75 %
MICH 1 14000 980 19020 2.60 20750 25548 25142
MINN ' 29200 29190 29290 2.10 69490 45599 79328
MISS 1 13 13 12 1.95 29 2s 23
“oO i] 530 500 875 2230 19378 1+150 14526
MONT ' 39230 19170 19200 2.20 20829 2e574 2,520
NEBR ' 19700 19700 19785 2.50 49590 45250 S177
NEV t 176 180 180 3635 598 603
NH ' 19 19 1 2.45 bad 47
NJ t ss 54 55 3.50 71 189
N MEX 1 201 211 215 4.00 864 844
NY ' 930 990 950 2.70 20511 2,673 1599!
NC ' 13 15 Vv 2.70 34 4.
N DAK ' 15650 19620 19620 1,30 36135 24106 2,106
OHIO 1 s25 550 600 2.95 19549 15623 15680
OKLA 1 sis 500 540 3.20 19622 1,600 1,566
OREG 1 420 420 425 3.30 19344 15386 14360
Pa ' 620 20 840 2.75 20214 2,255 1,932
RI 1 3 3 3 2.60 7 8 7
S Dak 1, 24600 29300 2+560 0.80 39900 1,840 3,968
TENN 1 90 95 100 2.40 212 228
TEX 1 200 200 210 5.40 940 15080
UTAH 1 460 460 455 3.50 1472 16610 1,365
VT ' 100 98 98 2.25 185 220
VA ' 80 80 85 2.00 232 160
WASH 1, 500 500 525 3.60 19750 1,800 1.733
WeVA 1 85 80 86 2.11 196 169
WIS 1 35020 3,010 39080 2.20 8,607 62622 8,932
WYO 4 470 465 465 2.35 19128 1,093 12023
us 1 279092 26,556 279658 2.63 779826 699911 76,826

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


U.S. FEED GRAINS PRODUCTION
MIL, METRIC TONS —_

150 [—

100

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977

soa nee, sa 68.77 7)

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 6,092 million bushels (155 million
metric tons), the second largest of record but 4 percent below the July i fore-
cast and 2 percent below the record 1976 crop.

Crop prospects as of August 1 indicate an average yield per acre of 87.3 bushels, a decrease
of 2.1 bushels from July ). This compares with 87.4 bushels per acre last year and 86.2 bushels
in 1975.

In the major producing States, Iowa yield declined 7 bushels, Missouri 4 bushels, Indiana
and Kansas both 2 bushels from a month earlier. Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska and
South Dakota yield prospects remained unchanged from a month earlier while Ohio indicated a 6
bushel increase and Wisconsin a 3 bushel increase. In the Southeastern States, yield prospects
declined substantially due to the prolonged drought. Prospects were generally unchanged to lower
‘in the West.

Acreage for grain harvest is estimated at 69.8 million, down 1 percent from the June estimate
and 2 percent below last year. In the Corn Belt, Iowa is down 300,000 acres and Illinois down
120,000 acres. The drought stricken southern States of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina,
South Carolina and Virginia all diverted additional acreage to silage and forage.

Spotty precipitation was evident during July throughout the Corn Belt. Crop development con-
tinued to be as much as two to three weeks ahead of both'Jast year and the average. As of
August 1 silking was well advanced and corn in the dough stage ranged from 20 percent in Ohio to
70 percent in Illinois. Some Wisconsin ears began denting. Missouri's crop was 30 percent
dented and Illinois 28 percent dented. The dent stage was just starting in the Corn Belt at this
time Tast year.

In the South Central States, the dent stage ranged from 24 to 49 percent. Corn was in poor
to fair condition in States bordering the Gulf Coast, plus South Carolina and Virginia. Har-
vesting is underway in several southern States.

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 corn production forecast computes to 6.4 percent.
At the 90 percent confidence level, the August 1 forecast is not expected to differ from the
final estimate by more than 1).0 percent or approximately 670 million bushels.

Changes in the production forecast between August 1 and the final estimate have averaged 255
million bushels during the past 10 years, ranging from %4 to 625 million bushels. During this
10 year period, the August 1 forecast has been above the final estimate 5 times by an average
of 203 million bushels and below 5 times by an average of 307 million bushels

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

STATE ot AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO : PRODUCTION ~
' ' t IND t 1 IND 1 t IND
: 1975: 1976 1 1977 1 1975 t 1976 $1977 3 1975 + 1976 3 1977
t 1s000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
:
ALA ' 4a 40 40 3440 26.0 19360 19320 15040
ARIZ 1 165 125 110 68.0 7660 119220 90125 8.360
ARK ' 200 aio 250 49.0 49.0 9800 15,500 12,250
CALIF ot 207 2l0 130 72.0 72.0 1465904 145910 94360
coLo ' 290 259 280 26.0 29.0 79540 79252 84120
GA t “7 45 43 3640 25.0 1,692 19710 1,075
Tot + 60 s9 $2 68,0 6460 41080 39481 343268
IND ' ia 21 14 64.0 6700 6960 1152 19407 966
Towa 1 26 26 27 62,0 65.0 60.0 19612 14690 14620
KaNs 1 34430 34950 4020 42.0 43.0 S000 1449060 1699850 2014000
ky t 2) 29 3265.0 19365 19740 19826
La ' 2a 37 26 = 3340 926 1,332 910
MIss 1 3A 45 35 35,0 10330 19665 19225
Mo 1 490 600 800 54,0 269660 369000 594200
NEBR : 14900 25100 29130 55.0 1049500 1199700 1179150
NMEX ot 319 199 275) 5060 15,500 11/960 9,625
Nec ' 85 90 70 51.0 49335 49590 24800
OKLA : 660 730 680 38.0 259080 = 21,900 254840
s¢ ' 17 15 12 3540 595 510 324
S$ Oak ot 267 152 300 26.0 6422 39696 124600
TENN ' 26 23 20 48.0 19248 19265 19040
TEX 1 7200 50600 45800 $2.0 $1.0 3749400 2925900 264,800
va ' 16 12 1d 35.0 3000 490 396 330
us 118,519 145877 145057 49,0 4866 51.6 7609069 7230679 7245787
CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 8-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

' ___ PRODUCTION

STATE ot AREA HARVESTED ' YIELD - ee
t t t IND T 1 YN t 7 TNO
t 1975 4 1976 4 1977 1 1975 t 1976 1 1977 ¢ 1975 + 1976 % 1977
' 19000 ACRES TONS 1000 TONS
1
Fua 1 29800 30600 30360 = «3509 = 33653000 109698 104251 94090
Haw t 11 10601 10 8667 93.8 99666 99365 10,087
La ’ 31560 31560 2100 22.0 69909 85068 64930
TEX 1 2968 36.0 3562 35.8 19250 19106 1,278
us t 15609 T6105 3629 36.0 289523280767 270385
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/
STATE: aeense 1976 1977 Nee Ge + 19761977
PERCENT PERCENT
ALA 80 76 42 81 68 75
ARIZ 76 83 63 83 84 7
ARK 74 77 60 74 n 66
CALIF 7 47 38 75 67 69
colo 28 69 61 84 89 67
CONN 80 76 67 82 72 49
DEL 76 72 4) 79 57 50
FLA 86 82 70 84 83 70
GA 83 79 32 74 74 68
TOAKO 85 85 68 80 36 66
TUL 8) 58 66 79 88 72
IND 83 81 75 32 76 74
TOWA 81 59 47 79 77 32
KANS, 75 72 78 78 35 72
Ky 85 87 80 7 81 67
LA 80 82 62 69 83 59
MATNE 85 88 80 al 71 53
MO 75 7 58 81 87 58
MASS 78 62 78 81 68 45
MICH 83 73 50 81 86 58
MINN 81 39 74 82 7 62
MISS 81 75 66 81 35 74
Mo 70 58 69 84 88 72
MONT 82 85 62
NEBR 7 56 82 us 278 70 64
17 GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR, 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64; SEVERE DROUGHT, 35-40; EXTREME

DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION. AUGUST 1977

8-20

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


HOPS

STATE AREA HARVESTED t YIELO ' PRODUCTION 1/
t 7 t IND t r 11ND 7 7 IND
4 1975 3 1976 4 1977 + 1975 3 1976 1 1977 + 1975 4 1976 5 1977,
t 1+000 ACRES POUNDS 19000 POUNDS
t
CALIF ot 15 105 165 15660 = 15700 29550 29490 29580
IDAHO ot B07 360 209 1,720 15700 60142 59160 45930
OREO ot 56 5.5 11660 19600 99520 81966 84800
WASH t 2163 2le 2067 11960 14859 379701 419160 384295
us t 3201 3009 3066 1,870 15783 550913579774 544575
1/ 1977 QUANTITIES AVAILABLE FOR MARKET WILL BE GOVERNED
By REGULATIONS ISSUED UNDER FEDERAL MARKET ORDER 991.
APPLES» COMMERCIAL Vv
' PRODUCTION ' PRODUCTION
cROP 1 POUNDS. 1 42 LA. EQUIVALENT _
AND 1 TOTAL 2/ tINDICATEO: TOTAL TINOICATED
_ STATE t 1975 ¢ 1976 1977 1975 7 1976 3 1977
t MICLTOW UNITS %+G00 UNITS
ALL COMMERCIAL APPLES '
ARK kan 2765 1160 2260 536 262 524
CALIF t 46000 48000 10,952 119429 116429
coLo : 10540 7440 25500 16762 14667
CONN ' 4840 3060 19143 714 1,995
DEL KYA 1265 1165 298 276 286
Ga 374n 2260 524 524
IDAHO ' 9560 12540 25262 24976 2,857
TLL ' 11500 86.0 26738 25048 2.571
IND ' Ba.d 2540 24095 595 144629
TOWa art 963 609 221 143 aie
KANS we 1720 1leé 405 271 429
KY cyan) 2200 1460 526 333 5246
MAINE ' 6760 7060 10595, 16667 14952
MD : 8660 6340 29048 15500 1,548
MASS t 9300 89.0 20216 201d 20119
Mice : 70060 48000 166667 119429 12,857
MINN arn 1845 23.5 440 560 429
Mo ' 7760 50.0 19833 15190 14500
NW ' 6040 5740 19429 15357 1,429
Ny 1 13860 9060 30214 2e143 32095
N MEX art 1fed 3000 262 724 952
NY t 1502000 82 260286 199526 214829
NC 1 31560 26540 74500 69310 65429
OHTO : 16060 105.0 39810 25500 1,667
OREG ' 15060 17000 39571 49048 34690
PA ' 55060 36060 13,095 86571 10,238
RI ' Sel ee 121 105 107
sc wt 2400 2360 S71 548 667
TENN we 10+0 8.0 238 190 250
UTAH et 4900 4060 14167 952 14119
vt 1 38.0 3800 905 905 952
va t 43900 21206 204238 54048 74249
WASH 1 2520000 2925040 $2,382 530572 544762
wova ' 24000 20000 5726 49762 4,881
wIs ' 6400 5 19526 14238 14143
us 17969609 6439508 6488440 4780497 «1529283 1634907

1/ IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES,
2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE
(MILLION POUNDS)! UNITED STATES 1975-429,85 1976~6036
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRTED FORWARD PROM EARLIER FORECASTe
4/ ESTIMATES NOT AVAILABLE PRIOR TO THE 1976 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

STAYE 1 AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO ' PRODUCTION
. ' ' TNO 7 t T TRO + T 7 IND
1 j975 3 _ 1976 1977 1_1975 | _3976 + 1977 3 1975 4 1976 3 1977
1 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 GUSHELS
1
ALA : 19310 19675 -24eS 2400 19.0 329095 = 294280 0315 825
ARK 1 49600 ©2445 1800 1159150774760 «= :1019200
DEL 1 205 2540 2b 59100 49368 e715
FLA ' 340 2400 2600 79080 61890 74820
Ga ' 192200 25.5 2348 329130 22,090 17,080
TUL ' 8,220 89850 3640 = 3240 2950920 2419920 © 3094750
IND t 39630 39870 = «3305 3300 1219605 108,240 = 127710
TowA 1 60970 74200 = 3heD = 3100 2369980 2044290 2374600
KANS t 14080 990 2100 1540 229660 12975 209790
Ky ' 19200 10360 2700 2658 320400 = 289355 369720
La t 19920 29850 2445 2600 479040 = 559120 = 619200
“oO t 318 315 26.0 = 2540 89904 79125 79560
MICH ' 610 720, 2660 = 2048 159860 119583179280
MINN ' 39650 30810 8 -2665 2100 969725 639420 1140300
MISs ' 39120 31850 2265 2240 709200 = 719500 = 844.700
Mo ' 40470 49780 2640 ©2040 1169220 = 844000 =: 1299060
NEBR ' 1,200 14280 2740-2040 329400 = 204600 = 344560
NJ t 79 102 132 2640 2440 25054 24448 30168
NY 1 10 12 16 24.0 2440 240 288 352
nc ' 1,420 19100 19950-2365 2145 339370 = 23,650 = 254650
N DAK of 149 147 210 1945 1268 21906 1,838 41200
OHIO 1 39100 29880 39380 3360 3265 1029300 = 934600 = 1044780
OKLA t 237 240 265 2360 2240 59451 5-280 59830
PA ' 43 42 50 2840 2940 19204 19218 19380
sc ' 14380 19190 15310 22.0 1840 309360 = 214420 © 205.960
S$ O0AK 4 342 271 305 25.0 1760 69550 45607 74320
TENN ' 1,850 19800 292200 25.00 225 469250 = 409500 = 534280
TEX ' 370 347 750 25.0 26.0 99250 9,022 199500
va 1 433 398 415-2560 2005 109825 84159 7,085
WIS 1 191 152 190 2545 2240 49871 39344 45750
us 1 53,76) 490443 589208 2848 = 2546 2 74S 145469120 142640890 166020065
FLAXSEED
STATE 4 AREA HARVESTED 1 YLELD 1 PROBUCTION
' t t IND 7 1 IND? t t TNO
1 1975 ¢ iors ¢ 19Y7 ¢ 1975 ¢ 1976 ¢ 1977 1 1975 1 1976 4 1977
1 1900" ACRES RUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
'
MINN 250 195 2250 1165 1060 146.8 29875
MONT t 14 12 16 8.0 10.0 8.0 112
NDaK ot 770 462 865 9.5 8.0 9.0 79315
sOaK 1 445 230 350 9.5 5.0 12.0 40237
TEX 1 40 5s 9 1260 8.0 10.0 430
us 1 1,820 969 TT 10.6 15,019

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY

(METRIC UNI

TS)

AREA HARVESTED. YIELD PER HECTARE : PRODUCTION
cRoP *IwpIcATED ? ‘INDICATED * : INDICATED
1976 2° "Sg77 S976 ag7z? (1976 IC 7 Al
: : : : 1977 1977
RECTARES METRIC TONS
CORN FOR GRAIN 228,767,390 28,248,580 5.49 5.48 157,894,490 160,806,370 154,745,300
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN : 6,020,570 5,688,730 3.05 3.24 18,382,290 18,410,440
OATS : 5,014,920 5,827,540 1.63 1.89 8,163,970 10,263,150 10,996,370
BARLEY : 3,406,280 3,885,020 2.4) 2.27 8,213,950 8,614,020 8,834,750
ALL WHEAT 228,661,770 26,968,130 2.04 2.06 58,442,870 55,620,110 55,536,190
WINTER 220,046,320 19,648,100 2.13 2.11 423621,580 41,885,510 41,532,110
OURUM : 1,855,100 1,242,800 1.98 1.8t 3,671,760 2,357,550 2,255, 130
OTHER SPRING : 6,760,350 6,077,230 1.80 1.93 12,149,560 11,377,050 11,748,950
RICE 2 1,012,130 893,130 5.24 5.12 5,307 890 4,563,680
RYE 325,370 317,680 1.30 1.46 423,360 451,810 463,370
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 220,009,090 23,556,200 1.72 1.85 34,424,660 43,601,060
FLAXSEED 386,070 592,870.48 66 186,850 392,850
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 615,740 610,920 2.76 2.32 1,701,370 1,417,020
COTTON 14,416,580 5,191,650 52 57 2,303,640 2,946,840
ALL HAY 224,651,690 24,952,780 4.45 4.52 109,656,860 112,833,820
ALFALFA HAY 210,746,950 11,192,920 5.90 6.23 63,422,190 69,695,370
ALL OTHER HAY 213,904,740 13,759,860 3.33 3.14 46,234,670 43,138,450
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 7 601,090 533,100 3.30 1.48 780,900 790,650
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 50,590 66,770 1.93 -66 97,520 44,230
POTATOES
SUMMER 48,600 47,270 21.17 21.53 1,029,100 1,012,550 1,017,860
FALL 1/ 461,710 465,560 30.15 OCT 12 13,920,950 OCT 12
TOTAL 1/ 556,200 555,280 29.14 OCT 12 16,209, 350 oct 12
SWEETPOTATOES 48,400 46,780 12.91 11,76 624,730 549,930
TOBACCO 422,740 390,650 2.29 2.09 968,950 814,690
SUGARBEETS : 598,500 503,600 44.51 43.69 26,640,390 22,001,040
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED : 306,310 308,170 85.20 80.62 -—- 26,096,980 24,843,250
HOPS 12,500 12,380 2.10 2,00 26,210 24,750
APPLES, COM'L 2,901,070 3,102,780 3,122,510
PEACHES 2/ 1,369,030 1,355,330 1,311,330
PEARS 768,110 703,880 703,880
GRAPES 3,904,890 4,026,720
PRUNES AND PLUMS
(IDAHO, MICH, GREG, WASH) 65,860 58,970
WALNUTS 166,650 182,160 182,160
PEPPERMINT FOR OIL 29,220 33,870  .06 -06 1,680 1,880
SPEARMINT FOR_OIL 11,700 13,960.06 .07 760 960
17 YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1977 TO BE RELEASED OCT 12, 1977. 2/ INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS
FOR CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE PEACHES AS FOLLOWS IN METRIC TONS: 1976 - 69,850.
UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)
9 AREA HARVESTEO YTECO PER HECTARE PRODUCTION _
CROP > INDICATED : INDICATED 7 iT El
1976 1997 1976 i977 1_: ‘1976 1977 Vy
HECTARES WETRIC TONS
POTATOES
WINTER : 5,830 5,500 23.22 20.36 135,350 111,990
SPRING : 40,060 36,950 28.06 27.43 1,123,950 1,013,640
SWEET CHERRIES : 153,310 119,200
TART CHERRIES 65,770 96,300
APRICOTS 140,430 131,270
NECTARINES (CALIF) 120,660 117,930
PLUMS (CALIF) 104,330 327,010
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) 131,540 137,890
ALMONDS (CALIF) : 211,370 231,330
7 ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLTER FORECAST.
CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


HAY: All hay production in 1977 is expected to total 124 million tons, up 3 percent from last
“~~ yearTMs short crop but 6 percent below 1975. Large increases are expected in Minnesota,
South Dakota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas, with smaller increases indicated for
Arizona, New Mexico, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana. Acreage intended for
harvest totals 61.7 million, up 1 percent from a year ago and about the same as 1975. All hay
yield is forecast at 2,02 tons per acre compared with 1.98 tons 1n 1976 and 2.15 tons in 1975.

Production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures is forecast at 77 million tons, 10 percent above
a year earlier but T percent below 1975, Sharp increases are expected in Minnesota, Nebraska,
South Dakota and Wisconsin. Yields are indicated at 2.78 tons per acre compared with 2.63 last
year and 2,87 two years ago.

All_other_hay production is forecast at 48 million tons, down 7 percent from 1976 and 13
percent below 1975. Yield per acre is forecast at 1,40 tons, compared with 1.48 tons in 1976
and 1.59 in 1975. Dry spring and summer weather in many areas is primarily responsible for the
low yield.

ORY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry edible beans is forecast at 17.4 million cwt., one percent

above the 1976 crop. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 1,317,300 acres,
3,000 acres below the June estimate and down 1) percent fromthe previous year. Yield is esti-
mated at 1,323 pounds per acre compared with 1,159 last year.

Planting was completed early in Michigan and beans got a good start. However, moisture has
been short since planting. Generally good growth has occurred and mild temperatures have en-
hanced pod setting. Yield prospects are favorable. California stands and pod set have been
mostly good to excellent. More fields were planted after smal? grain harvest than in the past
few years. Idaho's crop is in average or better condition. North Dakota‘s crop is in good con-
dition but in need of rain. Development _is ahead of normal. Colorado beans are in good to very
good condition in all irrigated areas. The southwest drylands area remains drought stricken with
conditions poor to very poor. Harvest has begun in Minnesota. New York's crop is in very good
condition. Washington expects a normal crop while Wyoming beans have suffered from hail damage.
Drought in the Utah dry bean area has sharply reduced bean crop prospects.

ORY EDIBLE PEAS: Ory edible pea production in Idaho and Washington is forecast at 975 thousand
cwt., 55 percent below 1976. There are 165,000 acres intended for harvest,

32 percent above last year. Yield for the two-State area is forecast at only 591 pounds, a new

record low, and well below the previous Tow mark of 825 pounds established in 1949. The prospec-

tive 1977 yield is 1,129 pounds below the 1976 average yield.

Growing conditions during dune and July were very poor. Serious drought coupled with high
temperatures greatly reduced prospects. The crop was severely damaged during a 3-day heat wave
in late June. Harvest started very early, beginning before July 4, and was nearing completion
by early August.

POTATOES: Total harvested acreage for the Nation's 1977 potato crop (all seasons) is estimated
at 1.372 million acres, down slightly from the 1.374 million acres harvested in 1976
but 9 percent above 1975.

Fall crop planted acreage this year is placed at a record high 1.17 million acres, 5 percent
above the April 1 prospective plantings and slightly above last year.

Fall crop acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 1.15 million acres, up 1 percent from
the 1.14 million acres harvested in 1976 and 10 percent above the 1975 crop.

For the eight Eastern States, the 1977 fall acreage for harvest is estimated at 210,900
acres, 6 percent above Tast year and 1 percent above 1975. Estimated acreage for harvest rose
12,000 acres in Maine but decreased 1,000 acres in Pennsylvania. Acreage in New York increased
slightly from a year ago.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Flue-cured production is forecast at 1,013 million pounds, 23 percent below a year ago.
All types show acreage declines and lower yield prospects from a year earlier. The average yield
per acre of 1,707 pounds compares with 1,974 pounds last year. Dry weather prevailed over much
of the flue-cured belt during July and prospects deteriorated sharply.

Fire-cured growers expect to harvest 48.1 million pounds, 25 percent more than last year.
The increase 7n production is attributed to a 15 percent increase in acreage and higher yields.

Burley output is forecast at 629 million pounds, down 7 percent from 1976. A 4 percent
acreage retuction and lower yields in major producing States caused the decline. Topping is
active and a few fields have been cut.

Southern Maryland tobacco production is forecast at 29.9 million pounds, the same as the
revised 1976 productTon.

Dark _air-cured prospects indicate a 19.7 million pound crop, 24 percent more than a year
earlier. Productfon increases are due to better yield prospects as well as acreage increases.

All cigar type production is forecast at 56.7 million pounds compared with 56.6 million
pounds in 6 Product fon of cigar-filler types is down 6 percent, cigar-binder types up 15
percent and cigar-wrapper types down 25 percent,

Difference between the August 1 forecast and the final production estimate has averaged 74
million pounds over the past decade, ranging from 22 million to 256 million pounds. The ©
August 1 forecast has been higher than the final production 7 times by an average of 84 million
pounds and below the final production 3 years by an average of 50 million pounds,

SUGARBEETS: Production of sugarbeets is forecast at 24.3 million tons, 17 percent below the 1976
crop of 29.4 million tons. The decline in production is due to 16 percent less
acreage for harvest and a lower average field -- 19.5 tons compared with 19.9 tons in 1976.

Weather during July generally favored growth and development of sugarbeets throughout most
of the country.

Harvest of fall planted beets is virtually complete in Arizona and the Imperial Valley of
California. Harvest is beginning in the San Joaquin Valley and along the Coast. Warm tempera-
tures and adequate irrigation water aided plant growth in Colorado.

Early growing conditions in Idaho were unfavorable for the crop, and abandonment was above
normal. Growing conditions improved during July and the crop prospects have improved. Moisture
in the Red River Valley of North Dakota was short on August 1. Final yields will be greatly
influenced by the amount of rain received in August and September. Most of the crop in Minnesota
is in good to excellent condition. Growth has been good. Most areas received enough moisture
until late July when moisture in the Red River Valley was becoming short.

The weather during July generally favored sugarbeet growth and development in Ohio. There
was some acreage loss due to dry weather in May and more recently to weeds and cutworms. Dry
soils have limited top growth in much of the growing area of Michigan. Some acreage has been
abandoned because of poor emergence or damage from blowing sand.

Changes between the August 1 U. S. forecast and final estimates have averaged 0.9 million
tons during the last 10 years -- ranging from 0.1 to 1.7 million tons. The August 7 forecast was
above the fina? estimate 3 of the 10 years by an average of 0.2 million tons and below 7 times
by an average of 1.2 million tons.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 27.4 million tons, down

5 percent from the record 28.8 million tons produced in 1976. Acreage for harvest
at 761,500 is one percent above the 756,900 acres harvested in 1976. Average yield per acre is
estimated at 36,0 tons compared with 38.0 tons in 1976.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 AW CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

7_ARER HARVESTED. YIeLO PER ACRE? PRODUCTION —
Tau rraTED? 5 INDICATED
CROP AND UNIT 1976 INDICATED, 1976 INDICATED: 1976 Tae
: : : 1977. 1977
T, 060 ACRES T,000
CORN FOR GRAIN Bu 71,085 69,803 87.4 87.3 6,216,032 6,330,668 6,092,054

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN “ 14,877 142057 48.6 51.6 723,679 724,787
OATS " 12,392 14,400 45.4 52.6 562,452 707,074 757,589
BARLEY " 8,417 9,600 44.8 42.3 377,264 395,639 405,777
ALL WHEAT 7 70,824 66,639 30.3 30.6 2,147,408 2,043,689 2,030,606

WINTER " 49,535 48,551 31.6 31.4 1,566,074 1,539,029 1,526,044
DURUM “ 4,584 3,071 29.4 27.0 134,914 86,625 82,862

OTHER SPRING ": 16,705 15,017 26.7 28.7 446,420 418,035 431,700
RICE CWT A/: 2,507.0 2,202.0 4,679 4,569 117,019 100,612
RYE Bo: 804 785 20.7 23.2 16 , 667 17,787 18,242
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS ” 49,443 58,208 25.6 27.5 1,264,890 1,602,065
FLAXSEED oY 954 1,465 77 10.6 7,356 15,466
PEANUTS FOR NUTS LB: 1,521.5 1,509.6 2,465 2,069 3,750,890 3,124,020
coTTON BALE 1/:10,913.5 12,828.7 465 506 10, 580.6 13,534.8
ALL HAY TON” : 60,915 61,659 1.98 2.02 120,876 124,378
ALFALFA HAY ": 26,556 27,658 2,63 2.78 69,911 76,826
ALL OTHER HAY "3343359 34/001 1.48 1.40 50,965 47,552
DRY EDIBLE BEANS CWT 1/: 1,485.3 1,317.3 1,159 1,323 17,216 17,431
DRY EDIBLE PEAS "Ts: 125.0 °165.0 1,720 591 2,150 975
POTATOES :

SUMMER ” 120.1 116.8 189 192 22,688 22,323 22,440
FALL 2/ "5 1,140.9 1,150.4 269 OCT 12, 306,906 OcT 12
TOTAL 2/ "31,374.40 1,372.1 260 OCT 12 357,357 OCT 12
SWEETPOTATOES "3 119.6 115.6 Vs 105 13,773 12,124

TOBACCO LB: 1,044.6 965.3 2,045 1,861 2,136,174 1,796,103
SUGARBEETS TON: 1,478.9 1,244.4 19.9 19.5 29,366 245252
SUGARCANE FOR :

SUGAR AND SEED TON 756.9 761.5 38.0 36.0 28.767 27 385
HOPS LB 30.9 30.6 1,870 1,783 57,774 545575
PASTURE AND RANGE 3/ PCT 70 64
APPLES, COM'L LB 6,395,800 6,840,500 6,884,000
PEACHES 4/ ° 3,018,200 2,988,000 2,897,000
PEARS TON 846.7 775.9 778.9
GRAPES "oo: 4,304.4 4,438.7
PRUNES AND PLUMS

(IDAHO, MICH, OREG, WASH) “ 72.6 65.0
WALNUTS " 183.7 200.8 200.8
PEPPERMINT FOR OIL LB 72.2 83.7 51 50 3.700 4,152
SPEARMINT FOR OIL " : 28.9 34,5 58 62 1,683 2,427
T7YIELD-IW POUNDS. 27 YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1977 TO BE RELEASED OCT TZ,

RANGE CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH.

THE 1966-75 AVERAGE IS 78 PERCENT.

DIVERSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE PEACHES AS FOLLOWS IN THOUSAND POUNDS: 1976 - 154,000.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(OOMESTIC UNITS)

12, 1977. 37 PASTURE AND
4/ INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PER ACRE t PRODUCTION
CROP ANO UNIT : 1976 : INDICATED : 1976 > INDICATED = 1976 : INDICATED
__ j 21977 Wt W977 Wt 1977
: 7,000 ACRES 1,000

POTATOES :

WINTER CWI: 14.4 13.6 207 182 2,984 2,469

SPRING " 99.0 91.3 250 245 24,779 22,347
SWEET CHERRIES TON 169.0 131.4
TART CHERRIES LB : 145,000 212,300
APRICOTS TON: 154.8 144.7
NECTARINES (CALIF) " : 133.0 130.0
PLUMS (CALIF) " : 115.0 140.0
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) . : 145.0 382.0
ALMONDS (CALIF) " : 233.0 255.0
‘7 ESTIMATES CARRTED-FORWARDFRUP EARLIER FORECASTS

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS

» USDA


TOBACCO

STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED 4 YIELO it PRODUCTION __
’ 1 1 TNO t i VINO # t + INO
1 1975 41976 1/8 1977 1 1975 | 1976 4 1977 & 1975 1 1976 I/t 1977
? ACRES POUNDS 1000 POUNDS
ALA 700 640 s7s 1700 14800 1elod 15190 15152 633
CONN ' 40450 49350 39740 19435 19580 196463 69387 75189 65145
Fla 1 142490 145350 134640 20062 29146 1,869 295595 30,826 25,227
GA 1 759130 684000 679000 29020 14820 1800978 = 1234760
IND : 79500 7+500 6800 29260 25420 i 50 184150
KY + 2000700 2079000 1985600 29275 25403 4567654 4975401
La ' 150 140 150 400 700 98
MO ' 235000 23.000 235000 950 1,300 29,900
MASS: 1 19420 18210 15160 19373 19525 15845
KO 1 29700 20400 29500 24270 = 29190
Nc 1 4799500 4489000 © 3910800 14996 = 2015
ONIO y 119300 119200 120200 29097 20115 239698
Pa + 129000 13,500 134000 10650 = 14750 199800
sc , 902000 752000 692000 “24100 25045 1899000
TENN ' 665030 685450 705320 25038 29040 134,569
va ' 8 80 799850 1,681 19773
WovA : 1700-15780 14790
wis cn 11e100 119600 1,691 15821 209801 205209 234220
us 4290869350 190449620 9654335 22008 2,045 14686) 261819775 2,136,174 147960103
Vf REVISED.
SUGARBEETS
STATE t t YIELD s PRODUCTION
1 1 tND 1 ’ + IND + 1 IND
1 1975 2 1976 4 1977 1 3975 | 1976 § 1977 t 1975 4 1976 1 1977
1 1+000 ACRES TONS 19000 TONS
'
ARIZ 1/1 1760 1720 1269 2165 23.0 366 391 275
CaLIF ist 32603 312.0 230-0 27.3 28.5 8.892 8,892 64440
coLo 1 15409 121.0 7720 1762 19.0 25661 24303 1,386
IDAHO 1 15803 13904 10660 18.6 2007 29942 29879 29106
KANS 1 4360 38.0 2540 15.5 1907 667 749 475
MAINE 2/1 5.5 20 1062 56 0
MICH ' 9104 9108 86.0 19.2 1668 19755 19540 1,548
MINN ' 19660 24840 26060 1462 1262 25783 35026 34952
MONT t 4865 4601 abe 2761 21460 829 968 858
NEBR 1 9600 84.5 7020 18.5 2060 19776 16690 14435
N MEX 1 ) 9 162 16.7 2262 15 20 29
N DAK of 13009 149.8 15720 13.9 13.5 15820 2,022 2.198
OHIO t 3902 3665 2600 1609 777 617 432
ORES 1 179 14.5 ae? 23.8 2561 426 364 207
TEX 1 3307 2364 1802 1361 2165 440 803 398
UTAK 1 2265 1860 908 18.7 17.6 353 317 173
WASH 1 B24 7605 6140 26.0 2464 29142 14862 14403
wyo ' 87.7 5604 49.3 1864 20.7 14060 19167 937
us 1 1651606 1947809 1s24bed 1969 19.5 299704 2949366 24,252
1/ RELATES TO YEAR OF HARVESTs
2/ ESTIMATES NOT MADE IN ALL YEARS,
CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 8-19 CROP REPORTING BMARD, SRS, USDA



OURUM WHEAT

STATE ot AREA HARVESTED 2 YIELO 1 PRODUCTION
t . ' 1 IND ¢ 1, 1 IND t ' ' IND
4 1975 ¢ 1976 ¢ 1977 t 1975 ¢ 1976 | 1997 1975 + 1976 t 1977
t 19000 BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
:
ARIZ 1/28 319 90 7540 72.0 23,925 69480
CaLIe 2/1 1s 80 28 73.0 8000 7B 1,095: 69400 25100
MINN 1 87 93 82 32.5 2905 3700 29828 20744 35034
MONT 1 375 295 205 27,0 109125 81855 49$10
N MEX 1/2/ 17 4 14190 320
N DAK ot 39960 39620 29530 26.5 1069940 = 909800 639250
SOAK 1 243 160 132 18,0 4937 19600 39168
us t 49680 43584 39071 2664 1239362 1340916 820862
T/ INCLUDES TN WINTER WHEAT PRIOR TO 1976.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRTED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
SPRING WHEAT OTHER THAN DURUM
STATE AREA HARVESTED : YIELD ' PRODUCTION
t 7 t IND 7 7—IND + t 7 IND
1 1975 1976 3 1977 t 1975 t 1976 t 1977 1 1978 1 1976 1 1977
1 1+000 ACRES BUSHELS 1y000 BUSHELS
'
COLO it 20 23 30 27.5 3060 29.0 550 690 870
IDAHO ’ $70 540 360 51,0 S400 50.0 235970 299160 185000
MINN ' 29700 34800 39120 31.0 3205 4260 «= 835700 = 1239800 1274920
MONT 1 14600 25040 1980 25.5 2965 23.0 = 409800 © 609180 459540
NEV l/s 9 8 7 45.0 3940 38.0 405 312 266
N DAK ot 69130 74900 71000 25,5  24e5 2540 = 1564375 1930550 1754000
OREG 1/1 105 113 65 40.0 3760 37.0 4200 40181 2405
SOAK ot 1,952 1,860 29200 18.0 1160 25.0 = 354136 = 204460 = 554000
UTAH 1/1 4a 42 26 33.0 3120 3960 19452 1,302 936
wash 1 320 315 190-3440 3660 25.0 109880 119340 44750
WIS) 1/3 21 29 19 28,0 2900 58a 870 551
WYO olvt 23 35 22 24.0 $52 875 462
us 3135396 169705 159017 26.8 358,548 446,620 431700
1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
WHEAT: PRODUCTION BY CLASSES FOR THE UNITED STATES
‘eR FORD WINTER SPRING. ( WATTE
: : r TARD 5 WINTER & TOTAL
1 RED RED : RED ; ORIN SPRING)
T,000 BUSHELS
1975 : 1,052,837 342,496 326,432 123,362 289,706 2,134,833
1976 967,688 348,602 40,175 134,914 286,029 2,147,408
1977 994,632 341,188 411,461 82,862 210,463 2,040,606

7 INDTCATED RUGUST V,1877-

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



CROP_REPORT SUMMARY

The "all crops” production index (1967=100) is a record 124, according to the Crop Report-
ing Board. Oil crops, cotton and hay and forage increased from a year ago while food grains,
sugar crops and tobacco declined. The feed grain index was unchanged from the record high
level of 1976.

INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1967-76 (1967=100)

7 PRODUCTION
: Hi HAY F 7 7
yeaR ALLS FEED: = Food: suGAR : :

2 Ot gratis? ttt: > GRAINS = CROPS COTTON: TOBACCO: OTL CROPS
1967 > 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1968 > 103 95 99 106 n3 148 87 4
1969 : 104 99 100 98 15 137 91 6
1970 > 101 89 99 1 114 139 97 7
1971 122 116 105 107 116 M45 86 121
1972 113 n2 104 102 127 187 88 131
1973 : 120 5 109 113 M2 175 88 155
1974 > 109 93 104 122 104 158 101 127
1975 : 72) 4 108 142 131 2 10 153
1976 : (122 119 102 140 131 142 108 130
1977 : 124 V9 104 732 V5 182 7 159

T7_ INCLUDES HAY SEEDS, PASTURE SEEDS AND COVER-CROP SEEDS, AND SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NO
INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with related information
lon selected agricultural commodities. These data were prepared and adopted by the Crop Report-
ing Board which consists of commodity statisticians from the Statistical Reporting Service's
field offices and Washington headquarters.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:
8. M. Graham, Chairman,
M. Koehn, Secretary,
J. W. Kirkbride, -F. E. Rolf,
R. J. Ries, DO. J. Buckner,
R. W. Cole, A. R. Davis, Jr.,
APPROVED: H. J. DeLong, W. N. Dowdy,
W. C. Erwin, R. L. Freie,
J. R. Garrett, J. R. Gibson,
” D. E. Hamilton, D. H. Johnson,
€. J. Koines, R. F. Kriese},

, G. A. Krull, L. F. Lautenschlager,

L. H. Pratt, L. K. Roberson,

R. L. Schulte, W. J. Spencer,

C. BD. Spillmann, H. J. Tippett,
| ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE Ww. J. Walker, We W. Wilken,

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP | AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELD i ____ PRODUCTION
AND t U 1 INO) T TIN 1 t 1
STATE t_ 1978 {| 1976 1 1977 | 1975 | 1976 |} 1977 | 1975 1 1976 1 1977
' 1+000 ACRES cwT 1s000 CWT
1
WINTER '
1
TOTAL wi 14603 14,4 13,6 202 207 182 2,887 27986 27469
\
SPRING 1
!
TOTAL vA 8465 99,0 91.3 237 250 248 19,996 249779 224347
'
SUMMER 1
ALA ( 2 7.5 180 145 110 1,350 14189 a25
CALIF 1 1 8.4 © 370 360 360 34108 20916 31024
coLo ! 5 6.9 260 260 250 1,872 19950 19725
DEL ( 8 $,3 165 200 200 cyst 19160 1,060
TLL 1 7 2.4 190 199 210 380 513 504
IND 1 2 1.2 180 188 175 166 222 210
Towa ( 9 2.2 200 185 200 620 537 440
Mo t 8 1.6 170 179 160 306 306 256
MICH ( 6 7.8 190 170 185 14406 19292 19443
MINN ' ° 7.5 260 250 27s 24106 29000 29063
NEBR ( 2 2.f 160 166 170 400 352 357
NJ ( 6 7.9 195 260 260 1,365 1,976 2,054
N MEX ' 2 3.1 200 180 200 700 576 620
Nc ' 0 4,0 120 135 120 480 540 480
OHTO | 9 2.8 165 200 175 479 580 490
TENN ' 7 5.0 85 95 90 425 447 450
TEX ! 6 9.6 250 245 255 24150 29352 29468
va 1 5 27.7 96 123 135 25400 3506 397460
wey ! 6 3.8 72 76 66 266 274 252
1
TOTAL wi 1 116.8 = 181 189 192 200898 220688 220440
1
FALL ari
CALIF 1 18,5 17,0 © 335 350 65365 6,475
COLO 1 36,3 36.5 265 255 8,613 949257
CONN ' 1,9 2.1 230 260 552 494
IDAHO*10 SW CO} 35,0 30,0 315 325 10,395 115375
*OTHER CO | 28940 328.0 330.0 230 235 669470 774080
IND 1 660 6.0 4.7 240 255 19440 14530
MAINE 1 12260 112.0 124.0 220 265 26,840 274440
MASS ! 305 3.2 3.5 205 220 718 704
MICH ! 2940 34.0 33.0 230 265 64670 85330
MINN | 67.0 72,0 170 165 91690 119055
MONT ' 76 8.4 8,6 230 ais 19748 19806
NEBR ! 5.0 49 5.6 245 260 19225 19276
NEV ! 1265 14,0 15.0 330 380 40125 5+320
NH 1 oe 4 +3 230 260 92 104
N YeLONG IS 1 23.3 23.9 23.0 260 310 65058 74409
UPSTATE 1 2400 24,9 26,0 255 265 65120 6101
N DAK ' 121.0 141,0 160 140 17-600 164940
OHTO ) 902 9.8 9.6 220 255 20026 24499
OREGeMALHEUR CO | 1002 11,0 8.5 350 370 36570 40070
*OTHER CO | 45.3 54.6 50.0 460 455 20,838 244843
PA ‘ 2909 28.0 27.00 235 255 $0815 Pet4a
RI ' be? 4.2 4.1 235 250 987 19050
S DAK t 404 5.9 115 65 $96 286
UTAH ' 5.8 5.2 5.4 260 240 14508 19248
vt ( 9 1,0 «9 235 205 212 205
WASH {108.0 124.0 105.0 460 450 485300 55,800
WIS t 4965 53,0 55.3 300 290 14850 159370
wyo ' 608 6.3 6.6 260 270 19632 19701
y
TOTAL 1/1 1904763 19140.9 191506 264 269 2764055 3064906
!
us 2/1 1226108 1,374.4 1,372.1 283 260 319,836 357,357

i/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ 1976 REVISED. YIELO AND PRODUCTION FOR 1977 TO BE RELEASED OCT 12+ 1977,

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PRUNES AND PLUMS

state 1 PRODUCTION 17
: TOTAL i TOTAL t IND
t 1975 1 1976 H 1977,
t TONS
:
1Dano t 4900 74000 7000
Icy : 189000 124000 15,000
ORFS : 30+000 324000 28,900
WASH : 209600 224600 154000
TOTAL 1 721600 721600 65.009
1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE
(TONS): TOTAL & STATESs 1975-34000% 1976=3+500-
WALNUTS
STATE ' PRODUCTION 1/_ __
OTA TOTAL 7 INO
1 1975 b 2976 : 1977
~ 1 TONS
1
CALIF t 1989000 1834000 200,000
ORES ant 14500 700 Bon
TOTAL : 1994500 1834700 200-800
1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTEO PRODUCTION, TOTAL 1975-200 TONS
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
MINT FOR ULL
STaTr BREA HARVESTED i vreun z PRODUCTION
3 t Tn + z ? IND = ? : TNO
1975 2 1976 1977 1975 + 1976 3 1977 ¢ 1975S 1976 + L977
t T¥000 ACRES LBS OF OIL T9000 POUNDS
PFPPERMINT
Ipawo ot 568 prey 8.3 “9 51 47 286 275 390,
IND Tea 668 8.0 40 35 31 2a 238 248
OREG 40.0 42.0 49.0 56 5S 65 24240 2.310 2.695
WASH 9.5 962 11.2 82 $8 50 697 534 569
WIS 448 B.A 762 37 39 36 252 343 259
us : 6861 7202 83.7 55 51 50 34753 36700 44152
SPE AQMINT
1DaHO a7 5.8 45 4a? 52 ley 174 3n2
IND : $25 5.5 37 34 30 ant 187 165
MICH 364 33 95 BS
WASH 1367 91 14123 14496
WS 266 Ped 41 104 19
us 2869 64 1,683 Pela?

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-24 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



PEANUTS FOR NUTS

STATE ot AREA HARVESTED : YIELD t PRODUCTION
: ' : IND 7 + IND? 7 7 Wi
H 1975 1 1976 1977 1 1975 3 1976 t 1977 t 1975 3 1976 1977
’ 14000 ACRES POUNDS 19000 POUNDS
t
ALA ' 20600 2100 21200 27600 24600 = 14900 = 354600 = 134600 402.800
FLA ' 5500 5500 S500 39230 39000 24750 1774650 165,000 1514250
GA t 524.0 526.0 $21.0 39295 2200 197269580 115549330 141464200
MISS ' 14550 14600 135485 12,325 119200
N MEX 5 24290 2e200 9 200152 215660 = 14120
ne ' 16660 © 24265 29800 3739725 4404730 4154000
OKLA ‘ 11960 24020 19950 2321300 © 2464000 = 2324050
sc ' 1560 14900 14550 294650 24,665 234250
TEX t 302.0 © 19525 16450 4634600 © 4634600 4374900
va ' 10 . 24790 25750 2849580 309.000 2834250
us § 1550600 1,509. 29565 25069 398579122 357501890 3412464020
COTTON
CROP
AND AREA HARVESTED t ___YTELO t PRODUCTION 17
STATE ¢ 1 t IND 7 ¥ t IND 1 ? t IND
1 1975 + 1976 1 1977.1 1975 t 1976 1 1977 t 1975 + 1976 ¢ 1977
1 14000 ACRES POUNDS 19000 «BALES 2/
COTTON» UPLAND
MAK 1 370.0 42000 405.0 405 399 420 312.0 349.0 350.0
ARIZ t 268.0 34000 46800 16027 19178 14228 573.0 834.0 1410040
ARK 1 68000 95000 = 1400040 485 392 480 68740 776.0 14000.0
CALIF 875.0 1412060 1434060 10072 «14064 = 14057 = 1 95400 2595000
PLA ' 367 Tel 5.5 346 814 384 2.7
GA ' 16000 24000 24020 443 398 300 146i
Tue ' +0 +o 20 0 0 0
KY 1 06 163 8 257 258 460
aA 1 31000 _ 56000 54000 $35 474 4am 346.0
MISS 11610000 1947000 1642000 454 376 497 = 1904060
“0 t 21000 26000 278.0 449 305 490 19660
NEV 3 10 Yel 103 rat 738 702 15
N MEX of 85.0 6400 10840 382 $23 si) 68,
Nec ' $300 T1060 80.0 42 489 390 4600
OKLA 1 29500 335.0 47000 277 25) 286 17060
$c t 10300 15960 17060 454 438 383 98.0
TENN ' 31500 37000 33000 339 295 451 222.0 228.0
TEX 1 3590000 4950000 5490060 293 353 382 «2382.0
va t 6B 06 8 344 480 360 .
us £ 8573001 10786961 12974904 453 464 506 @s24761
COTTON AMER@PIMA
ARIZ ' 2928 3000 40.0 612 804 700
CALIF ot at ot al 480 649 480
NMEX of 1245 603 Be? 195 476 332
TEX 1 2365 8.0 22.5 231 ane yy
us 1 6569 heed 7963 397 692 588
ON, ALL
us 1 8979600 10991365 12682807 453 465 506 8430146 100580.6 13,534.8

1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNEO.
2/ #80°LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Harvest of Texas sorghum was about 39 percent complete by the end of July, well ahead of
1976's 26 percent and the 34 percent average. Harvest extended from the Blacklands to South .
Texas and was almost complete in the Lower Rio-Grande Valley, Heading ranged from 30 percent in
Kansas to 76 percent in Missouri, significantly ahead of most recent years,

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 sorghum grain production forecast computes to
10,2 percent, At the 90 percent confidence level, the August 1 forecast is not expected to
differ from the final estimate by more than 17.6 percent or approximately 128 million bushels.

Changes between the August 1 production forecast and the final estimate have averaged 31
million bushels during the past 10 years, ranging from 4 to 66 million bushels. The August 1
forecast was above the final estimate 7 times by an average of 41 million bushels and below 3
times by an average of 7 mitlion bushels.

BARLEY: Barley production is forecast at 406 million bushels, 8 percent above last year's output.
~ This is 3 percent above the July 1 forecast as a result of improved yields in the
Dakotas, Minnesota and Montana. This year's barley crop will be harvested from 9.6 million acres,
14 percent more than last year. Yield per acre at 42,3 bushels compares with the 41.2 bushels
forecast July 1 and a 44.8 bushel yield in 1976.

Improved prospects increased yields over the July 1 forecast for South Dakota by 4 bushels,
Colorado 3 bushels, Minnesota 2 bushels and 1 bushel in North Dakota. Yields are below the 1976
level in California, Colorado, Idaho and Montana.

Generally, barley harvest is ahead of normal. California, Arizona and South Dakota harvest
was nearing completion. Combining was underway in Idaho and Montana. Harvest is well along in
North Dakota and Minnesota.

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 barley production forecast computes to 4.2 per-
cent. At the 90 percent confidence level, the August } forecast is not expected to differ from
the final estimate by more than 7,2 percent or approximately 29 million bushels.

Changes between the August t forecast and the final estimate have averaged 13.6 million
bushels for the past 10 years, ranging from 0.9 million to 36.8 million. Ouring these 10 years,
the August 1 forecast has been above the final 3 times by an average of- 14.2 miltion bushels and
below 7 times by an average of 13.3 million bushels.

RICE: The first production forecast for the 1977 crop is placed at 100.6 million hundredweight,

14 percent less than last year and 2] percent below the record high 1975 crop. Most of
the reduction from last year is attributed to fewer acres for harvest but yields are also slight-
ly lower.

Nationally, 12 percent fewer acres are expected for harvest with reductions ranging from 28
percent in Mississippi to 6 percent in Arkansas. California growers expect 19 percent fewer har-
vested acres.

Average yields is forecast at 4,569 pounds, more than 100 pounds under last year but virtual-
ly the same as the 1975 crop. All States except Mississippi and Missouri expect lower yields,
The Arkansas Crop is making good progress and 1s about two weeks ahead of normal. Harvesting has
begun in southern Louisiana and Texas. There was some lodging in Louisiana fields but that is
not expected to greatly affect yields. California weather has been ideal recently for the rice
crop but weeds could be a problem,

The Root Mean Square Error for the August 1 rice production forecast computes to 4.7 per-
cent. At the 90 percent confidence level, the August 1 forecast is not expected to differ from
the final estimate by more than 8.1 percent or approximately 8 million hundredweight.

During the past decade, changes between the August 1 forecast and the final estimate aver-
aged 4.0 million hundredweight, ranging from less than one-half million to 7.4 million. The
August 1 forecast was above the final in 4 of the 10 years by an average of 4.7 million hundred-
weight, and was below 6 times by an average of 3.5 million.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


In the efght Central States, the 1977 fall acreage for harvest is placed at 327,100 acres.
This is an increase af 9 percent from the 300,100 acres harvested in 1976 and 2) percent above
the 1975 acreage. All States except Indiana, Michigan and Ohio have higher acreages than last
year. North Dakota acreage is up 17 percent, Minnesota up 7 percent and Wisconsin up 5 percent
over the 1976 harvested acreage.

In the West, estimated acreage for harvest in 1977 is placed at 612,400 acres, 5 percent
below last year’s 641,300 acres but 8 percent above 1975. Estimated acreage for harvest is down
1 percent in Idaho, 8 percent in California, 11 percent in Oregon and 15 percent in Washington
from 1976,

Fall potato crop development has been ahead of normal in Central and Western regions of the
United States and about normal in the East. Early season conditions in Maine were good for
planting and progress was well ahead of normal until rains stopped planting in early June. Crop
development now is about normal. Early fields in North Dakota are approaching maturity. Rain
in early August was welcome but additional moisture is needed for potential yields to be reached.
Potatoes are making good to excellent progress in Idaho with some fields starting to turn. Dig-
ging of early varieties is underway in Oregon and Washington. Water supplies for irrigation
appear adequate to see the crop through. Growing conditions have been good in both States.

Summer potato crop production is forecast at 22.4 million cwt., 1 percent above the July
forecast but 1 percent below the 22.7 million cwt. harvested last year.

In New Jersey, hot weather during late July reduced yields and slowed harvest. Digging is
underway in Maryland with lower yields because of dry conditions. In Virginia, harvesting con-
ditions were good and high quality potatoes were dug. Irrigation was used in some areas. In
Alabama many fields have poor stands because of heavy, early rainfall followed by hot, dry
weather.

Most of the crap in Minnesota is in good condition. Rainfall has been sufficient and irri-
gation used where needed. Harvest is ahead of normal. Harvest is underway in the Munger area of
Michigan with good quality reported. Harvest began on the High Plains of Texas the last week
of June and is expected to remain active unti#] October, Harvest in Colorado is expected to be-
come active in all areas during August. Water is sufficient in the major producing areas.
Development of California's summer crop has been about one week to ten days behind normal. Har-
vest is underway in all areas, Irrigation water is adequate to finish the season.

SWEETPOTATOES: The first sweetpotato production forecast for 1977 is set at 12.1 million cwt.,

down 12 percent from the 13.8 million cwt. produced in 1976. The crop is expect-
ed to be harvested from 115,600 acres, 3 percent less than last year. Yield per acre is placed
at 105 cwt. compared with 115 cwt, in 1976 and 114 cwt. in 1975,

Harvest is just getting underway in North Carolina. The crop made gaod progress unti?
July when dry conditions developed over much of the main commercial area. In South Carolina,
weather during July was hot and dry, resulting in very stow development of plants, With the
general rains of early August, most plants are expected to survive but may not reach their full
potential. Prospects in Louisiana improved in late July in response to scattered showers,
Additional rain would still be beneficial in some areas, Harvest began in mid-July in the
Breaux Bridge-Cecelia area and is now underway in central areas. Good quatity is reported on
acreage harvested. Volume harvest is not expected to begin until mid-August in Texas. Crop
development has been delayed by the dry conditions that prevailed throughout east Texas during
May, June and July. Irrigated fields are making near normal progress while non-irrigated fields
are under stress from lack of moisture, The sweetpotato crop in California is generally making
good progress. Some fields are showing stress where irrigation water is short.

TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 1,796 million pounds, down 16 percent from the

1976 crop. The major decline in prospective production is in the flue-cured types,
with a drop of 23 percent or 304 million pounds expected. A decline in Burley of 7 percent or
50 million pounds is also expected, Partially offsetting these declines are increases in fire-
cured and dark air-cured production.

CROP PRODUCTION, AUGUST 1977 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA