Cr Pr 2-2 (10-98)

Crop

Production

National

Agricultural

Statistics

Service

USDA

Washington, D.C.

Released October 9, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department

of Agriculture. For information on “Crop Production” call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Corn production unchanged

Soybeans down 5 percent

All Cotton down 2 percent

Corn for grain production is forecast at 9.74 billion bushels, virtually unchanged from last month and up

4 percent from 1997. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 132.0 bushels per acre,

unchanged from last month but up 5.0 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the second largest

production and the second highest yield on record. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 73.8 million acres,

unchanged from last month and virtually unchanged from 1997.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.77 billion bushels, down 5 percent from September 1 but

2 percent above last year’s record of 2.70 billion bushels. The yield forecast, at 38.7 bushels per acre, is down

1.9 bushels from last month and is 0.1 bushels below the 1997 final yield. The reduction in yield is attributed

to lower pod weights. Above normal temperatures and drier conditions during late August and September

affected pod filling and bean size. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 71.6 million acres, unchanged

from September 1 but up 3 percent from 1997. 

Revisions to 1997 soybean acres, yield, and production were published in the September 30, 1998 Grain

Stocks release.

All cotton production is forecast at 13.3 million bales, down 2 percent from last month and down 29 percent

from 1997. Yield is expected to average 616 pounds per harvested acre, down 64 pounds from last year. 

Texas harvested acres were reduced 250,000 acres from September’s forecast, but production remains

unchanged. The California crop production was lowered 100,000 bales from last month. Georgia’s

production was reduced 50,000 bales from the previous month’s forecast, due to the effects of Hurricane

Georges and Tropical Storm Earl.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 2 NASS, USDA

All oranges: The initial forecast of the 1998-99 U.S. all orange crop is 11.0 million tons, down 21 percent

from last year’s record large crop of 13.9 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast is 190 million boxes

(8.55 million tons), 22 percent less than the record large 244 million boxes produced last season. Early and

midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 112 million boxes (5.04 million tons), 20 percent lower than last

season. Florida’s Valencia forecast of 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons) is 25 percent below last season’s

104.0 million boxes. California’s all orange production is forecast at 62.0 million boxes (2.33 million tons),

16 percent less than last season. The Navel orange forecast was unchanged from September at 34.0 million

boxes (1.28 million tons) but down 23 percent from last year's production of 44.0 million boxes. The initial

California Valencia forecast for the 1998-99 season is 28.0 million boxes (1.05 million tons), 7 percent less

than a year ago.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ): Yield for the 1998-99 season is forecast at 1.57 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors

Association. The final 1997-98 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees

Brix. Projected yields for 1998-99 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January

Crop Production report.

This report was approved on October 9, 1998.

Secretary of

Agriculture

Dan Glickman

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Table Narrative

Corn for Grain ....................................................... 4 1,38

Soybeans ........................................................... 7 1,39

Cotton ............................................................ 10 1,40

Oranges ........................................................... 23 2

Sorghum for Grain .................................................... 5 38

Rice ............................................................... 6 39

Sunflower .......................................................... 8 39

Peanuts ............................................................ 9 39

Cottonseed ......................................................... 11 --

All Hay ........................................................... 12 41

Alfalfa Hay ........................................................ 13 41

Other Hay ......................................................... 14 41

Dry Edible Beans .................................................... 15 42

Lentils ............................................................ 16 42

Dry Edible Peas ..................................................... 16 42

Austrian Winter Peas ................................................. 17 43

Winter Potatoes ..................................................... 17 43

Tobacco .......................................................... 18 43

Sugarbeets ......................................................... 21 43

Sugarcane ......................................................... 21 44

Grapes ............................................................ 22 44

Citrus Fruits ....................................................... 23 44

Apples ............................................................ 25 46

Pecans ............................................................ 26 46

Hazelnuts ......................................................... 27 47

Papayas ........................................................... 27 47

Crop Summary (Domestic Units)

Area Planted and Harvested ........................................ 29 --

Yield and Production .............................................. 30 --

Fruits and Nuts Production (Domestic Units) ............................... 31 --

Crop Summary (Metric Units)

Area Planted and Harvested ........................................ 32 --

Yield and Production .............................................. 33 --

Fruits and Nuts Production (Metric Units) ................................. 34 --

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre ................................. 28 33

Crop Moisture Maps ................................................. -- 35

September Weather Summary .......................................... -- 37

General Crop Comments .............................................. -- 37

California Fruits and Nuts ............................................. -- 46

Reliability ......................................................... -- 48

Contacts .......................................................... -- 50
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 4 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1997 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997

1998

1997 1998

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AZ 1

AR 1

CA

CO

CT 2

DE

FL 1

GA

ID 1

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA 1

ME 2

MD

MA 2

MI

MN

MS 1

MO

MT 1

NE

NH 2

NJ 1

NM 1

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK 1

OR 1

PA

RI 2

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT 1

VT 2

VA

WA 1

WV 1

WI

WY 1

US

265

50

175

260

1,030

144

80

500

40

11,050

5,850

12,000

2,700

1,170

490

415

2,250

6,450

470

2,870

14

8,725

93

85

650

870

605

3,450

190

22

985

335

3,400

650

1,800

23

325

95

37

3,050

57

73,720

290

25

210

255

1,070

144

55

400

50

10,400

5,650

12,400

2,850

1,250

650

420

2,000

6,750

515

2,700

15

8,550

98

75

700

780

825

3,200

240

28

1,050

275

3,850

690

1,850

24

360

95

40

2,900

60

73,789

87.0

170.0

125.0

170.0

146.0

110.0

80.0

110.0

155.0

129.0

123.0

138.0

143.0

103.0

117.0

90.0

117.0

133.0

107.0

116.0

135.0

132.0

108.0

175.0

116.0

89.0

99.0

134.0

140.0

195.0

99.0

97.0

98.0

102.0

138.0

135.0

93.0

190.0

95.0

132.0

135.0

127.0

60.0

170.0

115.0

160.0

140.0

100.0

60.0

88.0

160.0

145.0

139.0

143.0

143.0

125.0

80.0

100.0

102.0

141.0

80.0

121.0

130.0

145.0

124.0

170.0

114.0

70.0

98.0

143.0

120.0

180.0

105.0

40.0

106.0

105.0

95.0

133.0

90.0

185.0

105.0

130.0

124.0

132.0

55.0

170.0

115.0

155.0

140.0

100.0

60.0

80.0

160.0

143.0

137.0

143.0

144.0

118.0

80.0

100.0

105.0

150.0

80.0

114.0

130.0

143.0

124.0

170.0

114.0

70.0

103.0

141.0

120.0

180.0

108.0

40.0

110.0

100.0

95.0

133.0

90.0

185.0

105.0

132.0

124.0

132.0

23,055

8,500

21,875

44,200

150,380

15,840

6,400

55,000

6,200

1,425,450

719,550

1,656,000

386,100

120,510

57,330

37,350

263,250

857,850

50,290

332,920

1,890

1,151,700

10,044

14,875

75,400

77,430

59,895

462,300

26,600

4,290

97,515

32,495

333,200

66,300

248,400

3,105

30,225

18,050

3,515

402,600

7,695

9,365,574

15,950

4,250

24,150

39,525

149,800

14,400

3,300

32,000

8,000

1,487,200

774,050

1,773,200

410,400

147,500

52,000

42,000

210,000

1,012,500

41,200

307,800

1,950

1,222,650

12,152

12,750

79,800

54,600

84,975

451,200

28,800

5,040

113,400

11,000

423,500

69,000

175,750

3,192

32,400

17,575

4,200

382,800

7,440

9,743,399

1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

2 Not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 5 NASS, USDA

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1997 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997

1998

1997 1998

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL 1

AR

CO

GA 1

IL

KS

KY 1

LA

MS

MO

NE

NM

NC 1

OK

SC 1

SD

TN 1

TX

US

8

150

140

40

155

3,500

12

98

33

440

750

235

11

490

4

160

15

3,150

9,391

6

130

150

30

145

3,300

17

100

28

340

700

80

14

350

3

125

20

2,300

7,838

50.0

74.0

40.0

40.0

91.0

78.0

75.0

77.0

75.0

93.0

82.0

44.0

50.0

50.0

40.0

71.0

80.0

59.0

69.5

40.0

62.0

48.0

37.0

88.0

77.0

83.0

65.0

65.0

85.0

98.0

60.0

60.0

50.0

35.0

65.0

75.0

46.0

67.5

40.0

57.0

48.0

37.0

88.0

77.0

83.0

60.0

60.0

85.0

98.0

50.0

60.0

45.0

35.0

68.0

75.0

44.0

66.5

400

11,100

5,600

1,600

14,105

273,000

900

7,546

2,475

40,920

61,500

10,340

550

24,500

160

11,360

1,200

185,850

653,106

240

7,410

7,200

1,110

12,760

254,100

1,411

6,000

1,680

28,900

68,600

4,000

840

15,750

105

8,500

1,500

101,200

521,306

1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 6 NASS, USDA

Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1997 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997

1998

1997 1998

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO 1

TX

US

1,370

510

548

238

109

259

3,034

1,525

478

588

218

124

254

3,187

5,650

8,300

4,630

5,800

5,300

5,500

5,896

5,600

7,800

4,450

5,400

5,100

5,600

5,685

5,750

7,400

4,450

5,400

5,100

5,600

5,696

77,370

42,341

25,364

13,804

5,777

14,240

178,896

87,688

35,372

26,166

11,772

6,324

14,224

181,546

1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,

1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

1996

1997

1998 1

113,351

121,647

133,209

56,901

55,833

46,694

1,069

1,416

1,643

171,321

178,896

181,546

1

Indicated October 1, 1998, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are

adjusted as data become available through the growing season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 7 NASS, USDA

Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1997 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997

1998

1997 1998

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

DE

FL 1

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ 1

NY 2

NC

ND

OH

OK 1

PA 1

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WI

US

385

3,550

219

38

410

9,950

5,300

10,400

2,400

1,280

1,350

525

1,890

6,600

2,070

4,850

3,450

132

1,330

1,190

4,390

320

365

610

3,450

1,280

400

490

960

69,584

320

3,350

215

35

290

10,650

5,600

10,450

2,500

1,230

1,100

460

1,890

6,900

1,950

5,100

3,750

118

97

1,425

1,690

4,490

380

390

540

3,550

1,200

370

480

1,050

71,570

25.0

30.5

29.0

26.0

21.0

43.0

43.5

46.0

37.0

34.5

29.0

28.0

38.5

39.0

31.0

36.0

40.5

30.0

29.0

29.0

44.0

30.0

39.0

22.0

35.0

34.0

28.0

23.0

44.0

38.8

25.0

28.0

26.0

23.0

22.0

48.0

45.0

50.0

36.0

35.0

22.0

26.0

36.0

40.0

27.0

38.0

49.0

30.0

37.0

26.0

27.0

44.0

23.0

40.0

19.0

38.0

35.0

25.0

22.0

44.0

40.6

24.0

27.0

26.0

23.0

21.0

45.0

42.0

46.0

34.0

31.0

22.0

26.0

37.0

41.0

26.0

36.0

44.0

30.0

37.0

25.0

31.0

41.0

23.0

40.0

19.0

38.0

30.0

22.0

22.0

46.0

38.7

9,625

108,275

6,351

988

8,610

427,850

230,550

478,400

88,800

44,160

39,150

14,700

72,765

257,400

64,170

174,600

139,725

3,960

38,570

34,510

193,160

9,600

14,235

13,420

120,750

43,520

11,200

11,270

42,240

2,702,554

7,680

90,450

5,590

805

6,090

479,250

235,200

480,700

85,000

38,130

24,200

11,960

69,930

282,900

50,700

183,600

165,000

3,540

3,589

35,625

52,390

184,090

8,740

15,600

10,260

134,900

36,000

8,140

10,560

48,300

2,768,919

1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

2 NY included beginning with the 1998 crop year.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 8 NASS, USDA

Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

Varietal

Type &

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oil

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts

 US 1

Non-Oil

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts

 US 1

All

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts

 US 1

47

185

67

24

1,100

795

22

34

2,274

33

28

27

29

310

72

63

16

578

80

213

94

53

1,410

867

85

50

2,852

73

176

87

34

1,450

880

16

32

2,748

37

19

38

19

340

48

43

15

559

110

195

125

53

1,790

928

59

47

3,307

1,200

1,200

1,100

1,150

1,330

1,470

1,000

1,209

1,352

900

900

1,000

1,080

1,290

1,390

900

1,192

1,192

1,076

1,161

1,071

1,112

1,321

1,463

926

1,204

1,320

1,200

1,350

1,050

1,070

1,420

1,500

900

1,250

1,400

63,800

315,100

126,100

28,600

1,335,000

962,160

7,200

34,441

2,872,401

63,000

39,150

58,560

19,800

398,750

94,050

25,000

15,904

714,214

126,800

354,250

184,660

48,400

1,733,750

1,056,210

32,200

50,345

3,586,615

56,400

222,000

73,700

27,600

1,463,000

1,168,650

22,000

41,106

3,074,456

29,700

25,200

27,000

31,320

399,900

100,080

56,700

19,072

688,972

86,100

247,200

100,700

58,920

1,862,900

1,268,730

78,700

60,178

3,763,428

132,000

263,250

131,250

56,710

2,541,800

1,392,000

53,100

58,750

4,628,860

1 Estimates include all States except AK and HI.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 9 NASS, USDA

Sunflower: Area Planted by Varietal Type,

State and United States, 1997

State

Varietal Type

Oil Non-Oil All

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CO

KS

MN

NE

ND

SD

TX

Oth Sts

US

50

190

70

25

1,150

800

23

38

2,346

35

30

30

30

320

75

65

18

603

85

220

100

55

1,470

875

88

56

2,949

Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1997 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1997 1998 1997

1998

1997 1998

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

AL

FL

GA

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

193.0

84.0

519.0

17.3

121.0

77.0

10.5

315.0

74.0

1,410.8

196.0

81.0

533.0

20.0

125.0

75.0

10.5

360.0

75.0

1,475.5

1,930

2,715

2,570

2,700

2,720

2,400

2,900

2,610

2,560

2,507

2,000

2,400

2,500

2,500

2,850

2,200

2,100

2,550

2,650

2,459

2,000

2,200

2,500

2,500

3,000

2,200

1,900

2,500

2,650

2,448

372,490

228,060

1,333,830

46,710

329,120

184,800

30,450

822,150

189,440

3,537,050

392,000

178,200

1,332,500

50,000

375,000

165,000

19,950

900,000

198,750

3,611,400

1 Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 10 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 1997 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1997 1998 1997

1998

1997 1998

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 21,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL 3

 GA

 KS 3

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM 3

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL 3

 GA

 KS 3

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA 3

 US

442.0

324.0

940.0

875.0

99.0

1,425.0

10.0

625.0

970.0

375.0

66.0

665.0

190.0

285.0

480.0

5,150.0

100.0

13,021.0

22.0

184.0

11.0

32.0

249.0

442.0

346.0

940.0

1,059.0

99.0

1,425.0

10.0

625.0

970.0

375.0

77.0

665.0

190.0

285.0

480.0

5,182.0

100.0

13,270.0

455.0

249.0

855.0

650.0

80.0

1,300.0

14.0

540.0

915.0

330.0

59.0

695.0

100.0

280.0

445.0

3,050.0

91.0

10,108.0

15.0

184.0

10.5

37.0

246.5

455.0

264.0

855.0

834.0

80.0

1,300.0

14.0

540.0

915.0

330.0

69.5

695.0

100.0

280.0

445.0

3,087.0

91.0

10,354.5

597

1,255

859

1,202

577

646

418

757

901

723

676

671

462

691

662

479

659

673

912

1,141

641

815

1,056

597

1,233

859

1,191

577

646

418

757

901

723

671

671

462

691

662

481

659

680

600

1,157

646

997

498

572

501

640

787

625

781

640

480

540

593

436

770

607

832

939

731

778

900

600

1,138

646

984

498

572

501

640

787

625

774

640

480

540

593

440

770

614

575

1,137

646

923

498

554

501

596

787

567

781

640

480

540

593

472

770

609

768

939

800

778

899

575

1,116

646

927

498

554

501

596

787

567

784

640

480

540

593

476

770

616

550.0

847.0

1,683.0

2,191.0

119.1

1,919.0

8.7

986.0

1,821.0

565.0

93.0

930.0

183.0

410.0

662.0

5,140.0

137.2

18,245.0

41.8

437.2

14.7

54.3

548.0

550.0

888.8

1,683.0

2,628.2

119.1

1,919.0

8.7

986.0

1,821.0

565.0

107.7

930.0

183.0

410.0

662.0

5,194.3

137.2

18,793.0

545.0

590.0

1,150.0

1,250.0

83.0

1,500.0

14.6

670.0

1,500.0

390.0

96.0

927.0

100.0

315.0

550.0

3,000.0

146.0

12,826.6

24.0

360.0

17.5

60.0

461.5

545.0

614.0

1,150.0

1,610.0

83.0

1,500.0

14.6

670.0

1,500.0

390.0

113.5

927.0

100.0

315.0

550.0

3,060.0

146.0

13,288.1

1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 

2 480-Lb. net weight bales.

3 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 11 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Production

1996 1997 1998 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 7,143.5 6,934.6 4,984.0

1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

U.S. All Cotton Production

1989 - 1998

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

12.20

15.51

17.61

16.22 16.14

19.66

17.90

18.94 18.79

13.29

Year

Million Bales

USDA - NASS

10-9-1998
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 12 NASS, USDA

All Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and

United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

750

220

1,175

1,500

1,430

72

15

230

600

1,320

1,020

725

1,650

2,700

2,300

320

162

190

101

1,250

2,375

720

3,480

2,600

3,200

490

53

120

355

1,500

530

3,150

1,250

2,490

1,045

1,870

7

300

4,300

1,740

4,400

700

270

1,240

780

560

2,300

1,260

60,815

720

250

1,050

1,540

1,370

73

16

270

600

1,430

1,000

725

1,600

2,850

2,500

330

175

204

103

1,300

2,350

650

3,680

2,250

3,300

485

49

115

350

1,450

550

2,700

1,330

2,250

1,000

1,900

9

320

4,000

1,780

4,000

710

275

1,260

760

560

2,400

1,230

59,819

2.10

7.45

2.02

5.74

3.07

1.57

3.20

2.60

2.60

3.90

3.29

3.22

3.15

2.53

2.43

2.60

1.70

2.49

1.66

3.01

2.73

2.50

2.07

2.11

2.03

3.07

1.68

2.35

4.74

2.26

2.22

1.31

3.08

2.03

3.23

2.01

2.00

2.00

1.88

2.13

2.45

3.84

1.97

1.82

4.19

1.89

2.57

2.06

2.50

2.00

7.26

1.92

5.57

3.34

1.73

3.44

2.00

2.30

3.82

3.44

3.12

3.50

2.60

2.40

2.20

1.89

2.90

2.00

2.87

2.86

2.40

2.14

2.10

2.34

2.96

1.94

2.38

4.37

2.60

2.03

1.91

3.02

1.53

3.21

2.24

2.11

1.80

2.03

2.12

1.75

3.76

1.87

2.15

4.18

1.98

2.71

1.96

2.54

1,752

1,347

2,310

8,008

4,054

162

64

624

1,680

4,760

3,040

2,020

5,310

7,010

5,700

837

336

698

190

4,190

5,998

2,000

6,920

4,920

7,455

1,505

117

269

1,577

3,468

1,145

4,825

3,400

5,045

3,244

4,585

21

560

8,200

3,811

7,815

2,516

507

2,998

3,140

1,066

6,050

2,208

149,457

1,575

1,640

2,370

8,616

4,388

113

48

598

1,560

5,148

3,354

2,333

5,190

6,840

5,590

832

276

474

168

3,760

6,488

1,800

7,194

5,480

6,505

1,505

89

282

1,682

3,384

1,178

4,130

3,850

5,052

3,374

3,767

14

600

8,090

3,702

10,790

2,685

533

2,251

3,270

1,056

5,900

2,596

152,120

1,440

1,816

2,013

8,572

4,578

126

55

540

1,380

5,466

3,440

2,265

5,600

7,410

5,990

726

331

591

206

3,730

6,710

1,560

7,864

4,725

7,720

1,437

95

274

1,529

3,769

1,114

5,160

4,011

3,450

3,214

4,260

19

576

8,130

3,777

6,980

2,669

515

2,712

3,179

1,108

6,510

2,412

151,754
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 13 NASS, USDA

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AZ

AR 1

CA

CO

CT 1

DE 1

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

ME 1

MD 1

MA 1

MI

MN

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH 1

NJ 1

NM

NY

NC 1

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI 1

SD

TN 1

TX

UT

VT 1

VA 1

WA

WV 1

WI

WY

US

180

25

980

820

12

7

1,020

630

400

1,200

900

300

7

40

16

900

1,475

480

1,650

1,300

240

8

25

265

640

15

1,750

600

390

430

740

3

2,300

40

100

545

50

130

480

40

1,900

640

23,673

205

25

1,040

810

10

7

1,130

650

375

1,200

950

300

5

54

13

900

1,550

480

1,500

1,400

245

5

25

270

620

20

1,500

490

350

410

700

3

2,300

30

100

545

40

120

490

40

1,900

630

23,437

8.20

2.80

7.20

3.90

2.40

3.40

4.40

3.90

3.80

3.50

4.00

3.30

1.70

3.60

2.50

3.40

3.30

2.80

2.40

3.25

4.50

1.90

2.90

5.70

2.60

3.00

1.40

3.60

3.80

4.70

2.80

1.70

2.30

3.30

4.70

4.30

2.30

2.80

5.00

3.00

2.60

2.70

3.35

8.00

2.60

6.80

4.20

1.90

3.70

4.20

4.00

3.80

4.00

4.40

3.10

1.50

4.00

2.00

3.30

3.40

3.05

2.30

3.75

4.20

2.20

3.40

5.10

3.00

2.70

2.00

3.90

2.80

4.60

3.00

2.30

2.50

3.40

3.50

4.20

1.70

3.60

5.00

3.00

2.90

2.40

3.52

1,280

60

6,580

3,010

38

32

4,200

2,160

1,360

4,320

3,440

1,080

30

282

30

3,420

4,573

1,320

3,570

5,180

1,080

23

88

1,377

1,728

42

3,145

2,100

1,365

2,024

2,325

6

5,500

136

675

2,180

137

468

2,303

112

5,250

1,488

79,517

1,476

70

7,056

3,198

29

24

4,488

2,457

1,520

4,200

3,600

990

12

144

40

3,060

4,868

1,344

3,960

4,225

1,080

15

73

1,511

1,664

45

2,450

2,160

1,482

2,021

2,072

5

5,290

132

470

2,344

115

364

2,400

120

4,940

1,728

79,242

1,640

65

7,072

3,402

19

26

4,746

2,600

1,425

4,800

4,180

930

8

216

26

2,970

5,270

1,464

3,450

5,250

1,029

11

85

1,377

1,860

54

3,000

1,911

980

1,886

2,100

7

5,750

102

350

2,289

68

432

2,450

120

5,510

1,512

82,442

1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 14 NASS, USDA

All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL 1

AZ 2

AR

CA

CO

CT 2

DE 2

FL 1

GA 1

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA 1

ME 2

MD 2

MA 2

MI

MN

MS 1

MO

MT

NE

NV 2

NH 2

NJ 2

NM 2

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI 2

SC 1

SD

TN

TX

UT 2

VT 2

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

750

40

1,150

520

610

60

8

230

600

300

390

325

450

1,800

2,000

320

155

150

85

350

900

720

3,000

950

1,900

250

45

95

90

860

515

1,400

650

2,100

615

1,130

4

300

2,000

1,700

4,300

155

220

1,110

300

520

400

620

37,142

720

45

1,025

500

560

63

9

270

600

300

350

350

400

1,900

2,200

330

170

150

90

400

800

650

3,200

750

1,900

240

44

90

80

830

530

1,200

840

1,900

590

1,200

6

320

1,700

1,750

3,900

165

235

1,140

270

520

500

600

36,382

2.10

4.10

2.00

3.00

1.95

1.40

3.00

2.60

2.60

2.20

2.30

2.50

2.20

1.80

2.30

2.60

1.70

2.20

1.50

2.00

1.80

2.50

1.95

1.60

1.20

1.70

1.65

2.20

1.90

2.00

2.20

1.20

2.60

1.70

2.20

1.50

2.20

2.00

1.40

2.10

2.40

2.20

1.90

1.70

2.90

1.80

2.40

1.40

1.96

2.00

3.90

1.90

3.00

2.10

1.70

3.20

2.00

2.30

2.40

2.40

2.40

2.00

1.70

2.30

2.20

1.90

2.50

2.00

1.90

1.80

2.40

2.00

1.70

1.30

1.70

1.90

2.10

1.90

2.30

2.00

1.80

2.50

1.30

2.25

1.80

2.00

1.80

1.40

2.10

1.70

2.30

1.90

2.00

2.70

1.90

2.00

1.50

1.91

1,752

67

2,250

1,428

1,044

124

32

624

1,680

560

880

660

990

3,570

4,620

837

306

416

160

770

1,425

2,000

5,600

1,350

2,275

425

94

181

200

1,740

1,103

1,680

1,300

3,680

1,220

2,260

15

560

2,700

3,675

7,140

336

370

2,530

837

954

800

720

69,940

1,575

164

2,300

1,560

1,190

84

24

598

1,560

660

897

813

990

3,240

4,600

832

264

330

128

700

1,620

1,800

5,850

1,520

2,280

425

74

209

171

1,720

1,133

1,680

1,690

3,570

1,353

1,695

9

600

2,800

3,570

10,320

341

418

1,887

870

936

960

868

72,878

1,440

176

1,948

1,500

1,176

107

29

540

1,380

720

840

840

800

3,230

5,060

726

323

375

180

760

1,440

1,560

6,400

1,275

2,470

408

84

189

152

1,909

1,060

2,160

2,100

2,470

1,328

2,160

12

576

2,380

3,675

6,630

380

447

2,280

729

988

1,000

900

69,312

1

Includes alfalfa hay. 

2 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 15 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998 1

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT 2

NE

NM 2

NY

ND

OR 2

TX

UT 2

WA

WI 2

WY

US

132.0

120.0

103.0

20.0

305.0

155.0

11.7

180.0

12.0

39.5

530.0

10.9

14.0

5.6

38.0

8.5

35.0

1,720.2

105.0

160.0

103.0

19.0

290.0

175.0

12.0

185.0

10.5

30.0

700.0

8.5

13.0

5.7

40.0

8.2

41.0

1,905.9

2,250

1,900

2,150

1,900

1,650

1,550

2,200

2,060

1,700

1,560

1,300

2,060

1,020

700

2,240

1,800

2,260

1,695

2,100

1,900

2,050

1,900

1,500

1,450

2,200

1,950

1,900

1,500

1,400

1,910

1,000

540

2,100

1,500

2,100

1,630

2,325

2,250

1,907

444

4,640

2,418

235

3,705

264

377

7,524

158

84

10

710

144

765

27,960

2,970

2,280

2,215

380

5,033

2,403

257

3,708

204

617

6,890

224

143

39

850

153

790

29,156

2,200

3,040

2,112

361

4,350

2,538

264

3,608

200

450

9,800

162

130

31

840

123

861

31,070

1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed.

2 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 16 NASS, USDA

Lentils: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 1997-98

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

ID

WA

Oth Sts 1

US

61.0

77.0

43.0

181.0

55.0

62.0

42.0

159.0

60.0

77.0

35.0

172.0

53.0

62.0

40.5

155.5

Yield Production

1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

ID

WA

Oth Sts 1

US

1,500

1,460

1,050

1,390

1,100

1,350

1,130

1,207

440

682

211

1,333

900

1,124

367

2,391

583

837

457

1,877

1 MT and ND.

Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 1997-98 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

ID

WA

Oth Sts 2

US

75.0

116.0

102.6

293.6

69.0

108.0

146.4

323.4

74.0

116.0

86.6

276.6

67.0

108.0

134.1

309.1

Yield Production

1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

ID

WA

Oth Sts 2

US

2,100

2,230

1,930

2,103

1,700

2,100

1,830

1,895

590

1,404

677

2,671

1,554

2,587

1,675

5,816

1,139

2,268

2,451

5,858

1 Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas.

2 MT, NV, ND, and OR.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 17 NASS, USDA

Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 1997-98

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

ID

OR

US

7.5

0.6

8.1

8.0

1.0

9.0

7.2

0.4

7.6

7.0

0.4

7.4

Yield Production

1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

ID

OR

US

1,500

1,750

1,513

1,400

1,500

1,405

98

5

103

108

7

115

98

6

104

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 1997-98 

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

FL

US

6.6

9.0

15.6

7.0

8.5

15.5

6.6

8.8

15.4

7.0

8.0

15.0

Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998

Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

FL

US

240

175

203

220

180

199

1,584

1,540

3,124

1,540

1,440

2,980
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 18 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

 Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

CT

FL

GA

IN

KY

MD

MA

MO 1

NC

OH

PA

SC

TN

VA

WV 1

WI

US

2,270

7,300

43,000

8,900

230,500

8,000

1,200

3,000

317,400

11,400

7,600

54,000

59,480

53,080

1,800

2,550

811,480

2,650

6,500

42,000

8,500

236,400

7,500

1,215

2,800

264,600

9,800

7,200

45,000

63,580

47,680

1,800

2,300

749,525

1,586

2,610

2,075

2,100

2,162

1,500

1,731

2,345

2,304

1,956

2,021

2,340

1,922

2,215

1,700

2,231

2,201

1,680

2,600

2,100

2,020

2,030

1,450

1,481

2,300

2,102

1,790

1,986

2,200

1,936

2,155

1,500

2,009

2,062

3,795

20,100

113,620

14,972

395,542

10,000

1,212

6,021

585,542

12,640

15,464

117,810

109,888

103,543

2,040

5,162

1,517,351

3,600

19,053

89,225

18,690

498,328

12,000

2,077

7,035

731,419

22,300

15,360

126,360

114,292

117,576

3,060

5,690

1,786,065

4,452

16,900

88,200

17,170

479,825

10,875

1,800

6,440

556,090

17,542

14,301

99,000

123,118

102,772

2,700

4,620

1,545,805

1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 19 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,

State, and United States, 1997 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998 1997 1998

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured

 Type 11, Old Belts

 NC

 VA

 US

 Type 12, Eastern NC

 Belt

 NC

 Type 13, NC Border &

 SC Belt

 NC

 SC

 US

 Type 14, GA-FL Belt

 FL

 GA

 US

 Total 11-14

Class 2, Fire-cured

 Type 21, VA Belt

 VA

 Type 22, Eastern

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 23, Western

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Total 21-23

Class 3, Air-cured

 Class 3A, Light

 Air-cured

 Type 31, Burley

 IN

 KY

 MO 1

 NC

 OH

 TN

 VA

 WV 1

 US

 Type 32, Southern MD

 Belt

 MD

 PA

 US

 Total 31-32

90,000

41,000

131,000

179,000

40,000

54,000

94,000

7,300

43,000

50,300

454,300

1,200

3,750

7,400

11,150

3,600

600

4,200

16,550

8,900

220,000

3,000

8,400

11,400

51,000

10,800

1,800

315,300

8,000

3,000

11,000

326,300

74,000

35,000

109,000

150,000

32,000

45,000

77,000

6,500

42,000

48,500

384,500

1,600

3,800

7,400

11,200

3,700

600

4,300

17,100

8,500

225,000

2,800

8,600

9,800

55,000

11,000

1,800

322,500

7,500

2,700

10,200

332,700

2,025

2,315

2,116

2,445

2,455

2,340

2,389

2,610

2,075

2,153

2,306

1,640

2,560

2,480

2,507

2,970

2,750

2,939

2,554

2,100

2,140

2,345

1,585

1,960

1,830

1,905

1,700

2,059

1,500

1,900

1,609

2,044

2,100

2,200

2,132

2,150

2,000

2,200

2,117

2,600

2,100

2,167

2,140

1,600

2,400

2,500

2,466

3,100

2,750

3,051

2,532

2,020

2,000

2,300

1,650

1,790

1,850

2,100

1,500

1,962

1,450

1,880

1,564

1,950

182,250

94,915

277,165

437,655

98,200

126,360

224,560

19,053

89,225

108,278

1,047,658

1,968

9,600

18,352

27,952

10,692

1,650

12,342

42,262

18,690

470,800

7,035

13,314

22,300

93,330

20,574

3,060

649,103

12,000

5,700

17,700

666,803

155,400

77,000

232,400

322,500

64,000

99,000

163,000

16,900

88,200

105,100

823,000

2,560

9,120

18,500

27,620

11,470

1,650

13,120

43,300

17,170

450,000

6,440

14,190

17,542

101,750

23,100

2,700

632,892

10,875

5,076

15,951

648,843

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 20 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,

and United States, 1997 and Forecasted October 1, 1998 (continued)

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998 1997 1998

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 3, Air-cured

Class 3B, Dark

 Air-cured

 Type 35, One Sucker

 Belt

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 36, Green River

 Belt

 KY

 Type 37, VA Sun-cured

 Belt

 VA

 Total 35-37

Class 4, Cigar Filler

 Type 41, PA Seedleaf

 PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder

 Class 5A, CT Valley

 Binder

 Type 51, CT Valley

 Broadleaf

 CT

 MA

 US

 Class 5B, WI Binder

 Type 54, Southern WI

 WI

 Type 55, Northern WI

 WI

 Total 54-55

 Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper

 Type 61, CT Valley

 Shade-grown

 CT

 MA

 US

All Cigar Types

 Total 41-61

All Tobacco

2,050

480

2,530

1,100

80

3,710

4,600

1,230

780

2,010

1,800

750

2,550

4,560

1,040

420

1,460

10,620

811,480

2,500

580

3,080

1,400

80

4,560

4,500

1,325

875

2,200

1,600

700

2,300

4,500

1,325

340

1,665

10,665

749,525

2,290

2,000

2,235

2,310

1,488

2,241

2,100

1,730

1,850

1,777

2,330

1,995

2,231

2,031

1,415

1,510

1,442

1,980

2,201

2,350

2,100

2,303

2,400

1,400

2,317

2,050

1,800

1,540

1,697

2,100

1,800

2,009

1,856

1,560

1,330

1,513

1,884

2,062

4,695

960

5,655

2,541

119

8,315

9,660

2,128

1,443

3,571

4,194

1,496

5,690

9,261

1,472

634

2,106

21,027

1,786,065

5,875

1,218

7,093

3,360

112

10,565

9,225

2,385

1,348

3,733

3,360

1,260

4,620

8,353

2,067

452

2,519

20,097

1,545,805

1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 21 NASS, USDA

Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and

United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998 1

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

CA

CO

ID

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM

ND

OH

OR

TX

WA

WY

US

99.0

66.4

197.0

160.0

446.0

58.3

60.3

1.6

227.5

0.9

17.4

15.0

18.0

60.9

1,428.3

101.0

59.8

203.0

174.0

462.0

63.0

45.9

240.0

1.0

17.5

36.5

53.5

1,457.2

30.0

19.7

26.4

19.0

18.5

21.0

16.8

30.6

18.5

19.0

28.4

18.0

33.1

20.4

20.9

29.0

21.7

25.3

16.5

20.3

21.6

19.5

20.5

17.0

24.4

33.5

19.5

21.6

2,419

1,032

4,563

1,963

7,971

1,300

913

27

4,213

86

416

242

461

1,074

26,680

2,970

1,308

5,210

3,040

8,251

1,224

1,013

49

4,205

17

494

270

595

1,240

29,886

2,929

1,298

5,136

2,871

9,379

1,361

895

4,920

17

427

1,223

1,043

31,499

1 Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

1997 1998 1997 1998 1996 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

FL

HI

LA

TX

US

440.0

34.2

410.0

29.8

914.0

448.0

34.0

420.0

32.0

934.0

36.9

88.0

28.2

30.3

34.7

36.0

82.0

27.0

29.8

33.4

14,498

3,639

10,323

1,002

29,462

16,236

3,009

11,546

902

31,693

16,129

2,788

11,340

955

31,212

1 Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 22 NASS, USDA

Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Total Production

1996 1997 1998

Tons Tons Tons

Grapes (Table Type) 1

 CA

Grapes (Wine Type) 1

 CA

Grapes (Raisin Type) 2

 CA

All Grapes

 AZ 1

 AR 1

 CA 1

 GA 1

 MI

 MO 1

 NY

 NC 1

 OH 1

 OR 1

 PA

 SC 1

 WA

 US

592,000

2,225,000

2,192,000

25,000

9,000

5,009,000

3,500

65,000

2,000

189,000

1,200

8,000

15,000

83,000

600

144,000

5,554,300

825,000

2,940,000

2,877,000

23,000

8,000

6,642,000

3,700

61,000

1,900

139,000

900

6,900

18,500

58,000

500

319,000

7,282,400

750,000

2,600,000

2,100,000

24,000

10,000

5,450,000

4,000

74,000

3,300

120,000

1,500

7,700

20,000

52,000

350

235,000

6,001,850

1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

2 Fresh basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 23 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1996-97, 1997-98 and Forecasted October 1, 1998 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99

1,000 Boxes 21,000 Boxes 21,000 Boxes 21,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA 4

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless 6

 FL

 Other

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL 5 6

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 7

 CA 7

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus

 FL

400

40,000

134,200

1,300

175,900

600

24,000

92,000

120

116,720

1,000

64,000

226,200

1,420

292,620

2,400

23,500

31,400

900

900

8,200

55,800

5,300

70,200

550

2,600

6,300

9,450

2,600

22,600

25,200

3,950

150

350

44,000

140,000

1,350

185,700

650

30,000

104,000

175

134,825

1,000

74,000

244,000

1,525

320,525

2,250

18,300

30,600

650

800

9,000

49,550

4,800

64,150

600

2,400

5,200

8,200

2,600

22,000

24,600

2,850

40

400

34,000

112,000

1,300

147,700

600

28,000

78,000

140

106,740

1,000

62,000

190,000

1,440

254,440

2,000

18,000

31,500

500

700

8,400

50,000

5,000

64,100

650

2,500

4,200

7,350

2,700

21,000

23,700

2,500

60

15

1,500

6,039

55

7,609

23

900

4,140

5

5,068

38

2,400

10,179

60

12,677

108

999

1,334

38

30

275

2,371

212

2,888

21

98

299

418

99

859

958

178

7

13

1,650

6,300

57

8,020

25

1,125

4,680

7

5,837

38

2,775

10,980

64

13,857

101

777

1,301

28

27

301

2,106

192

2,626

23

90

247

360

99

836

935

128

2

15

1,275

5,040

55

6,385

23

1,050

3,510

6

4,589

38

2,325

8,550

61

10,974

90

765

1,339

21

23

281

2,125

200

2,629

24

94

200

318

103

798

901

113

3

See footnotes at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 24 NASS, USDA

1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the

following year.

2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80;

lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.

3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL

and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

5 Excludes White Seedless economic abandonment of 3,000,000 boxes in 1996-97 and 5,000,000 boxes in

1997-98.

6 Excludes Colored Seedless economic abandonment of 3,000,000 boxes in both 1995-96 and 1996-97 and

1,000,000 boxes in 1997-98.

7

Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 25 NASS, USDA

Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,

1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998 1

State

Total Production

1996 1997 1998

Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds

AZ 2

AR 2

CA 2

CO 2

CT 2

DE 3

GA 2

ID 2

IL 2

IN 2

IA 2

KS 2

KY 2

ME 2

MD 2

MA 2

MI

MN 2

MO 2

NH 2

NJ 2

NM 4

NY

NC

OH 2

OR 2

PA

RI 2

SC 2

TN 2

UT 2

VT 2

VA

WA

WV

WI 2

US

100.0

7.0

950.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

22.0

190.0

53.0

48.0

9.5

2.0

15.0

67.0

29.0

58.0

700.0

21.0

32.0

38.0

60.0

5.0

1,030.0

200.0

90.0

156.0

391.0

6.0

30.0

11.0

48.0

37.5

275.0

5,500.0

105.0

46.0

10,392.0

45.0

9.0

962.0

35.0

25.0

26.0

110.0

74.0

50.0

11.1

10.0

14.0

64.0

35.0

63.5

1,050.0

22.0

42.0

40.0

65.0

9.0

1,120.0

152.0

65.0

160.0

535.0

6.5

55.0

10.0

40.0

40.0

270.0

5,000.0

115.0

56.0

10,386.1

46.0

6.0

915.0

80.0

20.0

24.0

190.0

50.0

54.0

8.5

6.0

17.0

47.0

36.0

30.0

1,020.0

22.0

35.0

21.0

55.0

1,010.0

175.0

80.0

180.0

412.0

4.5

45.0

12.0

47.0

30.0

305.0

6,000.0

105.0

65.9

11,153.9

1

In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.

2 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

3 Estimates discontinued in 1997.

4 Forecast discontinued.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 26 NASS, USDA

Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

Crop and State

Utilized Production

1996 1997 1998

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

Native & Seedling

 AL

 AR

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

All Pecans

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

9,000

17,000

800

1,300

500

86,000

2,000

1,300

22,000

425

500

1,800

30,000

172,625

5,000

400

1,400

14,000

200

14,000

1,300

375

1,500

700

10,000

48,875

14,000

17,000

1,200

1,300

1,900

100,000

200

16,000

2,600

22,000

800

2,000

2,500

40,000

221,500

7,000

17,500

1,600

2,500

600

81,000

2,000

2,600

43,000

900

3,000

2,600

40,000

204,300

6,000

3,000

1,200

24,000

4,200

10,000

1,400

600

32,000

1,400

50,000

133,800

13,000

17,500

4,600

2,500

1,800

105,000

4,200

12,000

4,000

43,000

1,500

35,000

4,000

90,000

338,100

4,000

17,500

500

1,600

600

50,000

3,000

1,800

28,000

1,400

1,500

500

30,000

140,400

3,000

200

900

10,000

200

10,000

700

1,100

6,500

200

10,000

42,800

7,000

17,500

700

1,600

1,500

60,000

200

13,000

2,500

28,000

2,500

8,000

700

40,000

183,200

1 Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.

2 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 27 NASS, USDA

Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States,

1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1998

State

Utilized Production

1996 1997 1998

Tons (In-shell Basis) Tons (In-shell Basis) Tons (In-shell Basis)

OR

WA 1

US

18,400

100

18,500

46,850

150

47,000

16,450

50

16,500

1 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1997-98

Month

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested

1997 1998

1997 1998 1997 1998

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Aug

Sep

5,350

3,070

3,645

3,745

2,350

1,955

2,400

2,335

2,705

2,990

2,740

2,590
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 28 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Ears per Acre

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 corn producing states

during 1998. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through

harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from

this survey.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,

Selected States, 1994-98

State Month 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Number of Ears Number of Ears Number of Ears Number of Ears Number of Ears

IL

IN

IA

MN

NE

OH

WI

Oct

Nov

Oct

Nov

Oct

Nov

Oct

Nov

Oct

Nov

Oct

Nov

Oct

Nov

22,650

22,600

22,150

22,150

24,050

24,000

26,950

26,950

21,200

21,300

22,400

22,500

24,600

24,650

22,900

22,850

23,000

22,950

24,050

24,000

25,750

25,700

21,800

21,700

22,650

22,500

23,600

23,250

23,700

23,600

22,750

22,700

24,350

24,250

26,400

26,450

22,600

22,550

22,300

22,000

24,250

24,650

23,500

23,400

22,150

22,150

24,600

24,550

26,150

25,900

21,900

21,900

22,500

22,300

24,350

24,300

24,300

23,450

24,250

27,550

22,500

24,800

24,500
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 29 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1997-98 1

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1997 1998

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts 3

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4/

6,910.0

80,227.0

5,169.0

3,056.0

1,433.0

10,108.0

70,989.0

48,342.0

3,250.0

19,397.0

728.0

146.0

74.4

1,431.0

1.7

249.0

70,550.0

2,949.0

13,808.0

13,558.0

250.0

1,459.3

8.1

1,851.8

293.6

181.0

1,380.6

15.6

88.3

68.6

1,208.1

86.7

6,456.0

80,798.0

4,932.0

3,215.0

1,591.0

9,726.0

66,185.0

46,759.0

3,805.0

15,621.0

1,133.0

335.0

124.0

1,503.0

2.0

296.0

72,690.0

3,420.0

12,865.5

12,552.0

313.5

1,495.2

9.0

2,024.0

323.4

159.0

1,401.1

15.5

93.2

74.4

1,218.0

86.1

6,425.0

73,720.0

5,758.0

60,815.0

23,673.0

37,142.0

2,911.0

3,034.0

341.0

9,391.0

310.0

63,577.0

41,813.0

3,107.0

18,657.0

698.0

135.0

72.8

1,410.8

1.5

235.0

69,584.0

2,852.0

13,270.0

13,021.0

249.0

1,428.3

914.0

811.5

7.6

1,720.2

276.6

172.0

5.6

0.3

43.3

136.3

1,345.1

15.4

86.2

65.9

1,177.6

24.5

83.3

0.5

5,984.0

73,789.0

59,819.0

23,437.0

36,382.0

2,807.0

3,187.0

454.0

7,838.0

59,112.0

40,231.0

3,728.0

15,153.0

1,087.0

322.0

121.0

1,475.5

1.9

282.0

71,570.0

3,307.0

10,354.5

10,108.0

246.5

1,457.2

934.0

749.5

7.4

1,905.9

309.1

155.5

0.4

36.6

1,374.0

15.0

89.8

70.8

1,198.4

83.2

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1998 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 1998 area planted revised. 4 Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested

acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 30 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1997-98

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3/

Bu

“

Ton

“

“

“

Bu

Cwt

Bu

“

Ton

Bu

“

“

“

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

“

“

“

Bu

Lb

Bale

“

“

Ton

“

Lb

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lb

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.3

127.0

16.0

2.50

3.35

1.96

60.5

5,896

26.1

69.5

12.5

39.7

45.0

27.7

29.9

1,310

16.1

816

2,507

1,300

1,830

38.8

1,320

680

673

1,056

20.9

34.7

2,201

1,513

1,695

2,103

1,390

1,680

44,000

1,729

75

346

203

252

271

359

98

162

59.9

132.0

2.54

3.52

1.91

60.5

5,696

28.2

66.5

43.3

46.9

37.8

34.9

2,448

38.7

1,400

616

609

899

21.6

33.4

2,062

1,405

1,630

1,895

1,207

50,000

1,799

199

217

276

374,478

9,365,574

91,903

152,120

79,242

72,878

176,104

178,896

8,912

653,106

3,885

2,526,552

1,882,609

86,193

557,750

914,385

6,935

2,171

59,405

3,537,050

1,950

430,050

2,702,554

3,763,428

18,793.0

18,245.0

548.0

29,886

31,693

1,786,065

115

29,156

5,816

2,391

682

9,400

12,100

74,872.1

10,256

465,537

3,124

21,749

17,875

422,789

2,403

13,512

5,500

358,201

9,743,399

151,754

82,442

69,312

169,922

181,546

12,815

521,306

2,557,497

1,887,395

141,069

529,033

4,984

3,611,400

2,768,919

4,628,860

13,288.1

12,826.6

461.5

31,499

31,212

1,545,805

104

31,070

5,858

1,877

18,000

65,913.0

2,980

19,455

19,533

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1998 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 31 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

1997 1998 1999

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

“

“

“

“

“

“

Lb

Ton

Lb

Ton

“

Lb

“

Ton

“

“

Lb

Ton

Lb

“

Ton

Gal

2,888

7

958

12,677

178

418

108

10,386.1

138.0

13,700.0

7,282.4

104.0

38,800.0

2,651.1

1,044.1

214.0

29.0

757,000

47.0

338,100

180,000

269.0

1,298

2,626

2

935

13,857

128

360

101

11,153.9

130.2

6,001.9

95.0

2,420.0

918.3

170.0

28.3

540,000

16.5

183,200

195,000

220.0

1,159

2,629

3

901

10,974

113

318

90

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports.

2 Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 32 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1997-98

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1997 1998

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4/

2,796,410

32,467,060

2,091,840

1,236,730

579,920

4,090,610

28,728,540

19,563,520

1,315,240

7,849,770

294,610

59,080

30,110

579,110

690

100,770

28,550,880

1,193,430

5,587,960

5,486,790

101,170

590,560

3,280

749,400

118,820

73,250

558,720

6,310

35,730

27,760

488,910

35,090

2,612,680

32,698,140

1,995,930

1,301,080

643,860

3,936,010

26,784,410

18,922,900

1,539,850

6,321,660

458,510

135,570

50,180

608,250

810

119,790

29,416,920

1,384,040

5,206,540

5,079,670

126,870

605,090

3,640

819,090

130,880

64,350

567,010

6,270

37,720

30,110

492,910

34,840

2,600,130

29,833,750

2,330,210

24,611,220

9,580,230

15,031,000

1,178,050

1,227,830

138,000

3,800,440

125,450

25,728,980

16,921,300

1,257,370

7,550,300

282,470

54,630

29,460

570,940

610

95,100

28,159,950

1,154,180

5,370,240

5,269,470

100,770

578,020

369,890

328,400

3,080

696,150

111,940

69,610

2,270

110

17,520

55,160

544,350

6,230

34,880

26,670

476,560

9,910

33,710

180

2,421,660

29,861,670

9,484,720

14,723,430

1,135,960

1,289,750

183,730

3,171,960

23,922,040

16,281,080

1,508,680

6,132,270

439,900

130,310

48,970

597,120

770

114,120

28,963,660

1,338,310

4,190,360

4,090,610

99,760

589,710

377,980

303,330

2,990

771,300

125,090

62,930

150

14,830

556,040

6,070

36,340

28,650

484,980

33,670

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1998 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not

harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 33 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1997-98

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

1997 1998 1997 1998

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3/

3.14

7.97

35.78

5.61

7.50

4.40

2.17

6.61

1.64

4.37

28.09

2.67

3.03

1.87

2.01

1.47

1.01

0.91

2.81

1.46

2.05

2.61

1.48

0.76

0.75

1.18

46.91

77.73

2.47

1.70

1.90

2.36

1.56

1.88

49.32

1.94

0.08

38.79

22.74

28.28

30.40

40.24

0.11

18.18

3.22

8.29

5.69

7.89

4.27

2.17

6.38

1.77

4.17

2.91

3.15

2.54

2.35

2.74

2.60

1.57

0.69

0.68

1.01

48.46

74.91

2.31

1.58

1.83

2.12

1.35

56.04

2.02

22.27

24.28

30.92

8,153,300

237,896,540

83,373,000

138,000,940

71,887,130

66,113,810

2,556,140

8,114,590

226,380

16,589,660

3,524,410

68,761,480

51,236,220

2,345,790

15,179,470

414,760

6,290,960

55,150

26,950

1,604,380

880

195,070

73,551,470

1,707,060

4,091,690

3,972,380

119,310

27,112,120

28,751,410

810,150

5,220

1,322,490

263,810

108,450

30,940

4,260

5,490

33,960

4,650

21,116,400

141,700

986,520

810,800

19,177,390

1,090

612,890

2,490

7,798,910

247,493,730

137,668,910

74,790,120

62,878,790

2,466,410

8,234,790

325,520

13,241,780

69,603,660

51,366,470

3,839,270

14,397,920

4,521,410

1,638,100

75,357,630

2,099,620

2,893,140

2,792,660

100,480

28,575,410

28,315,050

701,170

4,720

1,409,310

265,710

85,140

8,160

29,900

135,170

882,460

886,000

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1998 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 34 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

1997 1998 1999

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,619,950

6,350

869,080

11,500,380

161,480

379,200

97,980

4,710

125,190

6,210

6,606,480

94,350

17,600

1,200

947,190

194,140

26,310

343,370

42,640

153,360

81,650

244,030

6,490

2,382,270

1,810

848,220

12,570,860

116,120

326,590

91,630

5,060

118,120

5,444,790

86,180

1,100

833,100

154,220

25,670

244,940

14,970

83,100

88,450

199,580

5,790

2,384,990

2,720

817,370

9,955,450

102,510

288,480

81,650

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports.

2 Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 35 NASS, USDA

CROP MOISTURE

(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

September 26, 1998

UPDATED WEEKLY

NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on preliminary reports

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting Agriculture, responds rapidly,

can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the

growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm

season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the

deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are

averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months, years)

drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 36 NASS, USDA

DROUGHT SEVERITY

(LONG TERM PALMER)

September 26, 1998

UPDATED BIWEEKLY

NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on preliminary reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds

slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep

percolation, as well as evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive

economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of

water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as

frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index).
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 37 NASS, USDA

September Weather Summary

Warm, dry weather in the Corn Belt pushed corn and soybeans rapidly to maturity and allowed

harvesting to proceed at an ahead-of-normal pace. Mostly dry weather also prevailed on the Plains,

especially in western areas, slowing winter wheat planting as growers waited for rain. Drought

stretched into a seventh month on the southern Plains and a third month in parts of the Ohio Valley

and Mid-Atlantic States.

Prior to mid-month, Tropical Storm Frances soaked areas from the central and western Gulf Coast

northward to the middle Mississippi Valley, but missed major winter wheat areas of the central and

southern Plains. Late in the month, scattered showers developed on the eastern Plains, improving

topsoil moisture for winter wheat germination. Meanwhile, Hurricane Georges passed just south of

the Florida Keys on September 25, slamming into the Mississippi Coast three days later. In western

Florida and the southern portions of Georgia and Alabama, the storm's high winds, heavy rain, and

resultant flooding halted cotton and peanut harvesting, and adversely affected several crops,

including cotton in the open-boll stage of development and pecans.

Along the West Coast and in the Southwest, a late-month cool-down held monthly temperature

departures below +5 degrees F. Near-normal readings prevailed in California. Farther north and

east, however, temperatures ranged from 4 to 9 degrees F above normal across the interior

Northwest and throughout the Plains. Corn Belt temperatures were 2 to 7 degrees F above normal,

while the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions experienced readings as much as 5 degrees F above

normal.

General Crop Comments: Above-normal temperatures across most of the Nation caused crops to ripen

ahead of normal in the Corn Belt, Great Plains, Delta, and Southeast. Most of the Great Plains remained dry,

allowing fall tillage operations to continue at a good pace, but dry soils forced some growers to delay winter

wheat seeding. Dry weather in the Corn Belt and Delta States aided harvest efforts, while rains from tropical

storms frequently halted fieldwork along the Gulf Coast and some inland areas of the Southeast. Abovenormal temperatures aided crop development in the Southwest for most of the month, but development

continued to lag behind the 5-year average. Temperatures cooled near the end of the month in California, but

crops continued to ripen and harvest activity gained momentum.

Corn development entered the month a week or more ahead of normal and continued to progress rapidly to

maturity due to warm weather. Across the northern Corn Belt, progress was nearly 2 weeks ahead of the

normal pace. Four percent of the crop was harvested as the month began and approximately a fourth of the

crop was harvested by the end of the month. Nearly all of the Nation’s soybean crop had progressed to the

pod setting stage and 13 percent was dropping leaves as the month began. Dry weather quickly ripened the

crop and allowed the harvest to gain momentum near mid-month. The harvest pace accelerated late-month

and, by the end of the month, a third or more of the crop had been combined.

Cotton also matured quickly, with bolls opening on half of the crop as the month began and more than onefourth harvested by the end of the month. Tropical storms hampered harvest efforts and damaged cotton along

the Gulf Coast. More than a fourth of the rice crop had been harvested as of September 1 and harvest

progressed ahead of average in Texas and the Delta States. In California, harvest began late and progressed

behind the 5-year average. Peanut harvest started early in Florida, but slowed after tropical storms hit peanutproducing areas along the Gulf coast. Harvest in the major peanut-producing areas of Georgia, Alabama, and

the Carolinas was hampered by hard, dry soils early in the month and by heavy rains most of the remainder of

the month. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 38 NASS, USDA

Dry weather across the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest allowed barley and spring wheat harvest

to finish at least 2 weeks early in most areas, and nearly 3 weeks early in some parts of Montana and North

Dakota. Early month dry weather also allowed winter wheat seeding to advance, with Washington growers

seeding over a third of their crop by the end of the first week. However, seeding progress generally lagged

throughout the month, as growers waited for rain to replenish soil moisture.

Corn for Grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.8 million acres, unchanged

from last month and virtually unchanged from 1997 . The October 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a

record level ear count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio,

and Wisconsin) . The previous record ears per acre was set in 1996 . As of October 4, 95 percent of the

acreage was reported mature in the 17 major States . This compares with 79 percent last year and 80 percent

for the 5-year average . Thirty-one percent of the acreage was harvested, compared with 14 percent a year

ago and the 5-year average of 16 percent . As of the beginning of October the majority of the Corn Belt

remained frost-free.

In Iowa, forecasted ear counts are the third highest on record behind the final counts in 1996 and 1997. 

Virtually all of the corn was mature as of October 4, compared to 94 percent in 1997 and the average of

84 percent . Nineteen percent of the crop was harvested, ahead of 7 percent last year and the average of

9 percent.

Forecasted ear counts are at a record high for Illinois when compared to final levels . Ninety-five percent of

the corn was mature, compared to 82 percent last year and 87 percent for the average. One-third of the crop

was harvested, compared with 12 percent in 1997 and the average of 15 percent.

Minnesota ear counts from objective yield data also indicate record high levels . Virtually all of the corn

acreage was mature by October 4, compared with 85 percent a year ago and the average of 74 percent. 

Twenty-nine percent of the crop was harvested, well ahead of 5 percent in 1997 and the average of 7 percent.

In Nebraska and Wisconsin, forecasted ear counts are below the record in 1996, but above the 5-year average

. Ninety-seven percent of the crop was mature in Nebraska and 95 percent was mature in Wisconsin, both

well ahead of last year and the average . Thirty-one percent of the Nebraska acreage was harvested, compared

with 10 percent for both last year and the average. In Wisconsin, 17 percent of the corn was harvested,

compared with 4 percent in 1997 and the average of 7 percent.

Forecasted ear counts in Indiana and Ohio are at record levels . Ninety-five percent of the corn in Indiana was

mature, compared to 81 percent in 1997 and the average of 84 percent . Nineteen percent of the Indiana

acreage was harvested . In Ohio, 84 percent of the corn was mature, well ahead of 30 percent in 1997 and the

average of 57 percent . Fifteen percent of Ohio’s crop was harvested, compared with 1 percent last year and

the average of 7 percent.

Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 521 million bushels, 2 percent lower than the September

forecast and 20 percent below the 1997 total. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from

September at 7.84 million acres, down 17 percent from the previous year. The U.S. yield is forecast at

66.5 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushel from last month and 3.0 bushels below 1997. Half of the 12 October

estimating States lowered yields from the month earlier. New Mexico showed the largest decrease from

September, down 10 bushels per acre. South Dakota, up 3 bushels, was the only State to show an increase.

Warm weather in the Great Plains and the southern Corn Belt helped promote the growth and development of

the U.S. sorghum crop. As of October 4, 85 percent of the crop was mature in the top 12 producing States,

13 points ahead of normal. Harvest, at 41 percent complete, was five points ahead of the 5-year average.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 39 NASS, USDA

Rice: Rice production is forecast at 182 million cwt, up slightly from September 1 and up 1 percent from

1997. If realized, this would be the third highest production on record. Area harvest is expected to total 3.19

million acres, unchanged from September 1 but 5 percent above last year.

The average yield is forecast at 5,696 pounds per acre, up 11 pounds from last month but down 200 pounds

from a year ago. Yields increased in Arkansas but declined in California. Yields in all other states remained

unchanged from September.

As of October 4, Arkansas harvest was 86 percent complete. This is ahead of last year and the 5-year

average. California harvest lags 39 points behind last year and 10 points behind the average. Harvests in

Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas were ahead of the average and last year.

Soybeans: Growers expect to harvest 71.6 million acres of soybeans, up 3 percent from 1997 and unchanged

from the September 1998 forecast. The soybean crop rapidly developed and ripened during September, as

above normal temperatures accelerated maturity well ahead of the 5-year average. As of October 4, the

percent of the soybeans dropping leaves had reached 88 percent, 4 percentage points ahead of 1997, and 11

percent above the 5-year average. Crop maturity was most advanced in Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska,

Ohio, and South Dakota as 96 percent or more of the crop had already dropped leaves. 

Soybean harvest was also progressing well ahead of normal as of October 4, with 41 percent of the acreage

harvested, 8 percentage points ahead of 1997 and 19 points ahead of the average. Harvest was over

50 percent complete in Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississipp, and Ohio. Killing frosts had been reported

in areas of North Dakota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. Other areas of the Corn Belt States were awaiting

frost to help speed up the drying process. 

In many of the Southern and Mid-Atlantic states, the crop conditions did not improve very much during

September, as a lack of moisture continued to be a problem in many areas. Much of the rain that was received

in the Gulf Coast and Southeastern states was too late to improve conditions in those states. Some flood

damage and harvest delays were reported from the hurricanes and tropical storms that hit the Southern States.

For most states, pod counts from the October objective yield survey were very high compared to the same

period last year. In Illinois and Missouri, pod counts for the October survey period were highest on record. 

Pod counts were also higher than 1997 in Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio, but not at record levels.

Sunflower: The first sunflower production forecast for 1998 is 4.63 billion pounds, up 23 percent from 1997

and 29 percent above 1996. Sunflower growers expect to harvest 3.31 million acres, an increase of 16

percent from 1997. The October yield forecast, at 1,400 pounds, is 80 pounds higher than the final 1997

yield.

Higher yields are expected in 4 of the 7 major sunflower growing states. As of October 1, growers in

Colorado, Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota were expecting higher yields this year. Yields in

Minnesota, Nebraska, and Texas are expected to be lower.

In North Dakota, yield is forecast at 1,420 pounds per acre, up almost 100 pounds above 1997. Sunflower

harvest was well underway as of October 4. Harvest in North Dakota was 17 percent complete. Harvest

progress in South Dakota and Minnesota was 32 percent and 22 percent complete, respectively.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.61 billion pounds, down slightly from the September 1 forecast but up 2

percent from 1997's production. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 1.48 millions acres, unchanged from

September 1 and 5 percent above 1997. Yields are expected to average 2,448 pounds per acre, down 11

pounds from last month and 59 pounds below 1997.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 40 NASS, USDA

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total

1.92 billion pounds, 1 percent below last month and 2 percent below the 1997 crop. The yield for the 4-State

area is expected to average 2,343 pounds per acre, 23 pounds below last month. Sixty-nine percent of

Alabama’s crop was rated in mostly fair to poor condition in early October. Rain from Hurricane Georges 

kept farmers out of the fields. As of October 4, harvest was 31 points behind the 5-year average. Georgia’s

acreage was rated 71 percent fair to good. Harvest was delayed with 32 percent combined in early October,

compared to 56 percent for the average. The South Carolina crop was 70 percent fair to poor. Harvest was 9

points behind the average.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 574 million pounds, up 3 percent from last month and 11

percent more than a year ago. Yield per harvested acre in the region, at 2,869, is 94 pounds above last month. 

Eighty-six percent of the North Carolina crop was rated in good condition in early October. Harvest in North

Carolina was 20 percent complete, 4 points ahead of the average. Adequate soil moisture and hot, dry

weather conditions during growing season have been extremely beneficial for the peanut crop. In Virginia, 81

percent of the crop was rated in mostly good to fair condition, and harvest was 38 percent complete, 3 points

behind average.

The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 1.12 billion

pounds, down 2 percent from last month but 6 percent above 1997. Yields in the tri-state area are expected to

average 2,451 pounds per acre, 39 pounds below last month. The condition of the Southwest crop was rated

mostly good to fair. The Oklahoma harvest is 4 points behind average, with 11 percent harvested. Texas’

acreage is 26 percent harvested compared to 15 percent for the average.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 10.1 million acres, is down 250,000 acres from September and

down 22 percent from last year. This change from last month’s acreage occurred in Texas, where fields

continued to be abandoned. American-Pima harvested acreage remains unchanged from last month, at 246,500

acres, 1 percent below 1997.

In early October, 15 percent of Texas' acreage was in good condition, 29 percent was fair, and 54 percent was

rated poor to very poor. Boll opening was 81 percent complete, 13 points ahead of the 5-year average. 

Additional defoliating activity occurred in the Plains, with harvest beginning in only a few fields in early

October. Regrowth continued to be a problem in the Coastal Bend as wet fields prevented plowing. Harvest

neared completion in the Blacklands and also in North Central Texas, where many fields were plowed under. 

Thirty-nine percent of the acreage was harvested on October 4, compared to the 26 percent normally

harvested. Cotton objective yield data indicate Texas' crop has the fourth lowest count of large bolls and the

second lowest boll weight since 1988.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) rated their cotton in mostly fair

to good condition in early October but Louisiana and Missouri rated their crop in mostly fair to poor

condition. One-third of Louisiana’s acreage was in fair condition, about one-fourth was rated poor, and 17

percent was in very poor condition on October 4. Missouri rated 41 percent in fair condition, one-fourth as

poor, and 15 percent as very poor. Arkansas showed 68 percent of their crop in fair or good condition,

Mississippi rated 82 percent of their acreage as fair or good, and 73 percent of Tennessee’s cotton was rated

fair or good. During September, Louisiana and Mississippi were affected by two tropical storms and

Hurricane Georges. The first, Frances, had high amounts of rainfall and also moved into southern Arkansas. 

Tropical storm Hermin made landfall in Louisiana but had much less rainfall than the previous storm. 

Arkansas boll opening was 93 percent on October 4, and complete in the remaining States in this region. All

states were ahead of the average harvest pace, with Louisiana at 71 percent complete in early October,

Mississippi, at 59 percent, and Arkansas producers harvested 31 percent of their acreage. Data from

objective yield surveys show large boll counts for Arkansas rank ninth, and Mississippi’s rank the highest

since 1988. Louisiana’s number of large bolls are the lowest during this time period. Boll weights indicate

Arkansas’ and Mississippi’s are the lowest, and Louisiana’s rank ninth in the past 10 years.

Seventy-two percent of Arizona's Upland crop was in fair to good condition, 27 percent was good, and 10

percent was rated excellent in early October. Harvest was 10 points behind the average pace, at 13 percent,
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 41 NASS, USDA

on October 4. Harvesting operations were active in the western areas of Arizona and were beginning in the

central area. In California, defoliation was underway in a few fields in the San Joaquin Valley in late

September. Only one percent of the California crop was harvested on October 4, 8 points behind average. 

Boll opening was three-fourths complete, compared to the 5-year average pace of 99 percent. California’s

crop condition was rated as 45 percent good and 45 percent also in fair condition. October 1 cotton objective

yield counts show California large boll numbers and boll weights are the second lowest since 1988.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), the majority of the crop

was in fair to good condition October 4. While Alabama rated two-thirds of their crop in fair or good

condition and 15 percent as very poor, on October 4, North Carolina rated their crop as 88 percent fair or

good and 1 percent as very poor. Georgia showed 12 percent in very poor condition, one-fourth as poor, 36

percent fair, and 23 percent in good condition on this same date. Hurricane Georges crossed southern

Alabama and into Georgia during the month, with the heaviest rainfall in Alabama. This storm deteriorated

the crop’s potential. Additionally, Tropical Storm Earl also affected these States’ cotton crop in early

September with heavy rain. Boll opening neared completion in these States in early October and, except for

Georgia, harvest was ahead of the average in this region. Alabama was 42 percent harvested, 24 points ahead

of average, Georgia, at 18 percent, equaled their average and North Carolina was 12 points ahead of the

normal harvesting pace with one-fourth of their acreage harvested.

American-Pima production is forecast at 461,500 bales, down 500 bales from September's forecast, and down

16 percent from 1997's output. Yield is indicated at 899 pounds per harvested acre, down 157 pounds from

last year’s record high yield. Arizona’s production was decreased 2,000 bales from last month as the affects

of delayed plantings, a cool, wet spring, and high summer temperatures, caused a slight decrease in yield

potential. Development was behind normal, and the high summer temperatures caused a decrease in yield

potential. Harvesting was active in the western area. Currently, 9 percent of Arizona’s acreage is harvested.

Growing conditions in California’s San Joaquin Valley were excellent for most of September after a late start

this season. Light rainfall occurred during the final weekend of the month but there were no weather related

problems. Crop progress varies depending upon planting date and soil type. New Mexico’s harvest began in

early October and 63 percent of the acreage was rated in good to excellent condition. Production was

increased 1,500 bales from September’s forecast.

All cotton ginnings totaled 2,054,950 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 1,210,450 running

bales ginned to the same date last year, and 2,145,650 running bales in 1996.

All Hay: Production for 1998 is forecast at 152 million tons, up 3 percent from the August forecast but

essentially the same as the 1997 production. Area harvested and to be harvested for alfalfa and alfalfa

mixtures and other hay was unchanged from August at 59.8 million acres, down 2 percent from the previous

year. All hay yields are forecast at 2.54 tons per acre, up 0.06 tons from August and 0.04 tons from the

previous year.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: U.S. production is forecast at 82.4 million tons, up 3 percent from the August

forecast and up 4 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 3.52 tons per acre, up 0.09 tons

from the previous forecast and 0.17 tons above last year. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged

from August, at 23.4 million acres, down 1 percent from 1997.

Among the top ten producing States, Iowa and Minnesota showed the largest increases in yield, up 0.50 and

0.30 tons per acre, respectively, while the others were up slightly or unchanged from the August report. 

Heavy rains in south and southwest Texas and recent scattered showers prompted its increase of 1.00 ton per

acre from the August report.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 42 NASS, USDA

All Other Hay: The forecast for 1998 is 69.3 million tons, 2 percent above the August forecast but 5 percent

below the year earlier. Other hay yields are expected to average 1.91 tons per acre, up 0.04 tons from August

but down 0.05 tons from 1997. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at 36.4

million acres, down 2 percent from last year.

Colorado’s yield, at 2.10 tons per acre, would be a record yield, if realized, while Oklahoma’s yield, at 1.30

tons per acre, if realized, would be the lowest since 1980. Texas’ other hay production is estimated at 6.6

million tons, up 23 percent from August but down 36 percent from a year ago.

Dry Edible Beans: Production of dry edible beans is forecast at 31.1 million cwt for 1998, up 7 percent from

a year ago and 11 percent above 1996. An increase in harvested acres from 1997 was enough to offset a

reduction in yield. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.91 million acres, up 11 percent from 1997 and 9 percent

above 1996. The average yield of 1,630 pounds per acre is 65 pounds below a year ago but 35 pounds above

1996. Average yields were at or below 1997 levels for all states except for New Mexico and North Dakota. 

The October 1 forecast of production is 4 percent more than the August forecast. Reduced yields in Idaho and

Nebraska between August and October were not enough to offset increased yields in Colorado, Kansas,

North Dakota, and Texas.

Harvest was virtually completed in North Dakota, Michigan, and Colorado by late September. Harvest

progressed well ahead of average, due to favorable weather during much of September and early planting. 

The condition of North Dakota’s crop at season’s end was rated mostly fair to good, generally the same as the

August 1 condition. Harvest progressed three weeks ahead of average with 94 percent combined as of

September 27. Dry weather in Michigan allowed harvest to wind down by October 1, the earliest date on

record. Yield results were generally mixed. Colorado growers had 92 percent of the crop cut by late

September, 12 percent ahead of average.

Harvest in Nebraska, at 73 percent completed, was 6 percent ahead of average by late September. Harvest

continues in California, Idaho, Montana, Minnesota, New York, Washington, and Wyoming. Cooler weather

in California slowed drying and hail storms in the Big Horn Basin of Wyoming caused considerable damage to

the crop. By late September, 73 percent of the Wyoming’s crop had been combined compared with an

average of 74 percent.

Lentils: Production of lentils in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and Washington is estimated at

1.88 million cwt, down 21 percent from the 1997 crop. Planted and harvested acreage, as well as average

yields, were below last year in both Idaho and Washington. Harvested area is estimated at 155,500 acres,

16,500 acres less than 1997. Average yield per acre stood at 1,207 pounds, 183 pounds below last year.

Harvested acreage in Idaho fell to 53,000 acres, the lowest level since 1992 when 49,000 acres were

harvested. Average yields in Idaho slipped 400 pounds from last season to 1,100 pounds per acre. Poor

weather hurt the growth and development of the crop. In Washington, yields dipped 110 pounds to 1,350

pounds per acre from 62,000 harvested acres.

Dry Edible Peas: Production of dry peas in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, and

Washington in 1998 is estimated at 5.86 million cwt, slightly more than 1997's production and more than

double the 1996 crop. While harvested acres in Idaho and Washington were both below 1997, growers in

Montana and North Dakota continue to seed more dry peas. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 43 NASS, USDA

Overall, planted area in the U. S. reached 323,400 acres, 29,800 acres above 1997. Harvested acres stood at

309,100 acres compared with 276,600 acres last year. Average yields fell 208 pounds to 1,895 pounds per

acre. Growers in Idaho saw their average yields decline 400 pounds per acre from last year to 1,700 pounds

due in part to wet conditions and hail.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 44 NASS, USDA

Austrian Winter Peas: The Austrian winter pea crop of 104,000 cwt for 1998 in Idaho and Oregon is down

10 percent from 1997 but slightly above the 1996 production. Area harvested, at 7,400 acres, is down 200

acres from last year, while the average yield decreased 108 pounds in 1998 to 1,405 pounds. Wet weather

was responsible for the reduction in yields in Idaho.

Winter Potatoes: The final 1998 winter potato production is estimated at 2.98 million cwt, down 5 percent

from a year earlier and 9 percent below 1996. Winter harvest was taken from an estimated 15,000 acres in

1998, 3 percent below last year but 3 percent above 1996. The average yield of 199 cwt per acre was off 4

cwt from a year earlier and 27 cwt below 1996. California production was down 3 percent from 1997 and

Florida production dropped 6 percent.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1998 is forecast at 1.55 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the

September 1 forecast and 13 percent below 1997 production. This increase in the production forecast for

1998 is primarily the result of increased flue-cured yields. Harvested acres are expected to be 749,525 acres,

down 8 percent from last year. Yields for 1998 are estimated to average 2,062 pounds per acre, up 14 pounds

from last month but 139 pounds below the average for 1997.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 823 million pounds, up 7 percent from September 1 but 21 percent

below last year’s output. Flue-cured growers plan to harvest 384,500 acres, 15 percent below last year. Fluecured tobacco accounts for 51 percent of this year’s total tobacco acreage. Flue-cured yields are expected to

average 2,140 pounds per acre, up 133 pounds from September but 166 pounds below last year.

North Carolina’s flue-cured crop prospects increased from September 1. Old Belt (Type 11) areas received

some much needed rains in September which boosted prospects. Damage from Hurricane Bonnie in the

Border Belt (Types 12 & 13) was minimal since much of the tobacco was already in the barn. Rainfall just

before harvest helped to improve yields. 

Burley production is expected to total 633 million pounds, down 6 percent from September 1 and 2 percent

below 1997 production. Yield is expected to average 1,962 pounds per acre, 123 pounds below the September

1 forecast and 97 pounds below the average for 1997. Burley tobacco growers expect to harvest

322,500 acres, 2 percent above last year. Kentucky, with 71 percent of the 1998 burley production, expects

to produce 4 percent less than a year ago.

Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, North Carolina, and Indiana , who together produce 95 percent of the U.S. burley

crop, have all reported lower yields due to dry weather conditions. Kentucky’s burley crop harvest was

91 percent complete as of September 27 but farmers expressed concerns about the undesirable yellow color of

the cured tobacco.

Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at 31.5 million tons, 5 percent above the 1997 final production estimate

and 1 percent above the September 1 estimate. If realized, production would be the second largest on record,

exceeded only by the 31.9 million ton crop in 1994. Area to be harvested in the 12 sugarbeet-producing states

was estimated at nearly 1.46 million acres, 28,900 acres above 1997 and 1,700 acres above the September

estimate. Yield is estimated at 21.6 tons per acre, 0.2 ton above September 1 and 0.7 ton higher than 1997.

Yields were expected to be lower than earlier estimates in Michigan due to the excessively dry summer. 

Harvest started slowly in the northern Great Plains but, by October 1, cooler temperatures combined with dry

weather improved harvest and stockpiling conditions. However, sucrose content was expected to be below

average in most States due to above-average temperatures during most of the summer. In California, harvest

continues after starting 3 to 4 weeks later than normal. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 45 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1998 is expected to total 31.2 million tons,

down nearly 2 percent from 1997 and slightly below the September 1 estimate. The expected area for harvest

dropped to 934,000 acres, 5,000 acres below the previous estimate but more than 2 percent above last year. 

The forecasted yield rose 0.1 tons from the September estimate to 33.4 tons per acre but 1.3 tons below 1997.

In Texas, increased abandonment due to the summer drought dropped acres for harvest by 14 percent from the

September estimate. However, the production estimate only fell 6 percent due to higher yields on the

remaining acres. Yields in the Gulf Coast States were expected to fall below 1997 due to the summer drought,

while Hawaiian growers expected yields to equal last year’s. Harvest was expected to begin a week or more

later than last year in some areas as processors were busy preparing mills for opening.

Grapes: U.S. grape production is estimated at 6.0 million tons, down 18 percent from 1997 but up 8 percent

from 1996. California’s all grape forecast, at 5.45 million tons, decreased 4 percent from the August 1

forecast. The New York and Washington forecasts decreased from the August 1 forecast while Michigan and

Pennsylvania increased. These five States account for 99 percent of the forecasted U.S. production in 1998.

California’s all grape forecast decreased to 5.45 million tons, down 18 percent from a year ago. Of this total,

2.10 million tons are raisin varieties, 2.60 million tons are wine varieties, and 750,000 tons are table varieties. 

Picking of table and wine varieties continues in the San Joaquin Valley. Some growers are concerned about

bunch rot and mildew problems.

Washington’s production is forecast at 235,000 tons, down 26 percent from last year but up 63 percent from

1996. The Concord and Niagara grape crops did not develop as well as last year but wine grape production is

expected to set a record at 21 percent above last year. The crop in Michigan is forecast at 74,000 tons, up 21

percent from last year and 14 percent above 1996. Most areas in the State expect good yields.

Grape production in New York is forecast at 120,000 tons, down 10 percent from the August 1 forecast and

down 14 percent from last year. The damage from the freeze in late April was worse than expected. 

Pennsylvania production is forecast at 52,000 tons, down 10 percent from last year and down 37 percent from

1996. Growing conditions were unfavorable during the spring due to frost which killed buds in one of the

largest producing counties. Some growers mentioned that dry weather reduced fruit size.

Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 1998-99 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.63 million tons, slightly above last

season but down 9 percent from the 1996-97 season. The October 1 Florida grapefruit crop is forecast at

50.0 million boxes (2.13 million tons), up 1 percent from a year ago but down 10 percent from the record

large utilization from the 1996-97 season. The white seedless forecast, at 18.0 million boxes (765,000 tons),

will be the lowest of any season since 1969-70. Fewer trees plus fewer and smaller fruit per tree led to the

decline in the projected utilization. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at a record large 31.5 million

boxes (1.34 million tons). Despite fewer trees, the forecast is larger than last year due to more fruit per tree. 

Sizes are expected to be the same as last year. The seedy grapefruit crop is expected to total 500,000 boxes

(21,000 tons), the smallest amount of this variety ever recorded.

California’s October 1 forecast of grapefruit production is 8.40 million boxes (281,000 tons), 7 percent less

than last year’s utilization but 2 percent more than in 1996-97. Weather conditions have been good to date. 

The cooler weather has produced less soft fruit. Defects include sheepnose, windscar, and sunburn. However,

color and eating quality are good. Grapefruit production in Texas is forecast at 5.00 million boxes

(200,000 tons), up 4 percent from the previous season. Sizes have improved recently due to much needed

precipitation. Arizona’s grapefruit forecast is 700,000 boxes (23,000 tons), continuing the downward trend

over the last five seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 46 NASS, USDA

Lemons: The 1998-99 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 901,000 tons, down 4 percent from last season and

down 6 percent from the 1996-97 crop. California production is forecast at 21.0 million boxes

(798,000 tons), 5 percent less than a year ago and 7 percent less than two seasons ago. Quality in the Central

Valley looks good to fair, but is very good in the desert areas. In the South Coast areas, smaller fruit sizes

were reported. Typical defects include windscar, flatsides, and botrytis bumps. The Arizona lemon crop is

forecast at 2.70 million boxes (103,000 tons), up 4 percent from both of the previous two seasons. Harvesting

is just underway in western areas.

Tangelos: The first 1998-99 tangelo forecast from Florida is 2.50 million boxes (113,000 tons), 12 percent

less than last season’s utilized production and 37 percent below the 3.95 million boxes of the 1996-97 crop,

which was the largest recorded crop since the 1987-88 season. Fewer trees and fewer fruit per tree

contributed to the lower forecast. Fruit sizes have shown normal growth between August and September, but

the average is still below last season. Fruit loss from droppage is above average for this time of year.

Temples: Florida’s initial 1998-99 Temple forecast is 2.00 million boxes (90,000 tons), 11 percent less than

the 2.25 million boxes recorded last season and 17 percent less than the 1996-97 season. With the exception

of three major freeze seasons (1957-58, 1962-63, and 1989-90), this is the smallest indicated crop since

1954-55. Fewer trees and less fruit per tree have substantially reduced the fruit population. Larger fruit and

less drop did not offset the reduction in the number of fruit.

Tangerines: The 1998-99 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 318,000 tons, down 12 percent from last season

and down 24 percent from two seasons ago. Florida’s tangerine crop is forecast at 4.20 million boxes

(200,000 tons), a 19 percent reduction from the previous year’s utilization and 33 percent less than the

1996-97 crop. Fewer fruit per tree and smaller fruit overall contributed to the decline.

California’s initial 1998-99 tangerine forecast is 2.50 million boxes (94,000 tons), up 4 percent from a year

ago but down 4 percent from 1996-97. The crop was maturing well with average quality. Harvesting should

begin toward the end of October. Arizona’s tangerine forecast for the 1998-99 season is 650,000 boxes

(24,000 tons), up 8 percent from last season and up 18 percent from two seasons ago.

K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 1998-99 is 60,000 boxes (3,000 tons), 20,000 boxes

more than the record low use last season and the second lowest on record. There were 150,000 boxes utilized

during the 1996-97 season.

Florida citrus: Most areas of Florida’s citrus belt received an abundance of rain during September including

heavy rains associated with Hurricane Georges. There was very little significant damage from the hurricane. 

There has been an abundance of new growth on trees of all ages generated from the tropical weather of this

past month. New crop fruit made good progress during the month. Some splitting has occurred on early

types of fruit due to the excessive moisture conditions. Harvest of the 1998-99 season progressed very slowly

during the month as about a dozen packing houses were running at reduced rates due to lagging maturity. 

Harvesting crews are selectively picking white and colored grapefruit, Navels, Hamlins, and Ambersweet

oranges, and Fallglo and Robinson tangerines. Caretakers have been cutting cover crops, spraying fresh fruit

for insects and diseases, and fertilizing young trees.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 47 NASS, USDA

Texas Citrus: Fruit size has improved during September due to good rains; however, dry conditions and a

lack of irrigation water slowed sizing during the summer. Harvest should begin soon in a few early grapefruit

groves.

California Citrus: Grapefruit picking was active in Riverside County in September. Packers were grading

heavy due to soft fruit, but color and eating quality were good. Some wind scar, sunburn, and sheepnose were

also reported. Lemon harvest was also active with good quality. Valencia oranges were also picked with

wind scar, puff, and crease reported. New crop Navel oranges were maturing with picking expected to begin

in late October.

California Fruits and Nuts: Crop harvesting continued to dominate growers’ activities during September. 

Grapes for fresh use in the San Joaquin Valley were picked with Flame Seedless, Red Globe, and Ruby

Seedless among the major varieties. Thompson Seedless variety grapes were picked for fresh, raisin, and wine

uses. By October 1, almost the entire raisin crop had been harvested, with about 40 percent on open trays, 27

percent rolled, and the remaining 33 percent picked up. Cool weather has slowed drying. Harvest of grapes

for wine was also active during September. Growers were plagued with bunch rot. Picking of late variety

stone fruit was winding down by late September. Apple harvest was active with Royal Gala, Fuji, Granny

Smith, and Red Delicious among the major varieties. Bartlett Pears were picked in Lake and Mendocino

areas. Asian pears were picked in the San Joaquin Valley. Dried figs were picked up and olive harvest had

begun by late September. Prune harvest was active with growers concerned about quality. Almond,

pistachio, and walnut harvests were active throughout September. Fall strawberries were harvested in the San

Joaquin Valley. 

Apples: The final forecast of the 1998 apple crop stands at 11.2 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the

August 1 forecast but 7 percent above last year's production. Reduced production prospects in Washington

and several of the Eastern States more than offset a slight increase in the production forecast for Michigan. 

Even with this reduction, the 1998 crop is forecast to be the 2nd largest and only 3 percent below the 1994

record crop of 11.5 billion pounds.

The Eastern States expect to produce 2.32 billion pounds, down 4 percent from the August 1 forecast and

11 percent below a year ago. The New York production forecast was decreased by 30 million pounds due to a

severe storm which hit the Lake Ontario growing region on Labor Day. Primary damage from the storm

occurred due to high winds. Fruit were blown off trees, scattered areas of trees were uprooted, and most areas

reported many broken branches. North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia all report a lack

of precipitation which has resulted in smaller apples than originally expected.

Production in the Central States is forecast at 1.38 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the August 1 forecast but

3 percent below the 1997 crop. The Michigan apple crop sized better than originally expected in the Grand

Rapids area, particularly where irrigation was available.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 7.46 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast

but 17 percent above last year. Washington’s production forecast was reduced by 100 million pounds due to

an extended period of temperatures over 90 degrees. Sunburn, a reduction in fruit size, and reduced quality

have resulted from the severe hot conditions. Even with this reduction, Washington’s 1998 apple crop looks

to be highest on record and 20 percent above last year.

Pecans: The October 1 forecast for 1998 pecan production is 183 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 1

percent from the September 1 forecast and 46 percent below last year’s crop. Improved varieties are expected
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 48 NASS, USDA

to make up 140 million pounds, or 77 percent, of the total. Native and seedling varieties make up the balance

of 43 million pounds.

The Georgia forecast, at 60 million pounds, is unchanged from September 1. Moisture received from

September’s tropical storms offset the wind damage from the storms. The Texas production forecast is also

unchanged at 40 million pounds. While last month’s rains were helpful, a higher than normal nut drop took

place in some areas. New Mexico’s forecast remains at 28 million pounds with average nut set and nut drop

reported.

The Alabama forecast was lowered 3 million pounds due to Hurricane Georges. Some Baldwin and Mobile

county growers are expecting a total loss. These two counties have historically accounted for almost half the

State’s pecan production. The Oklahoma production is now forecast at 8 million pounds, down 2 million. 

Conditions are rated lower than a month earlier due to drought. September rains, while beneficial, may have

been too late as drought-related problems such as lack of pollination, poor nut fill, and nut drop took a toll. 

Louisiana raised its forecast 3 million pounds. Harvest has begun in some areas.

Hazelnuts: Hazelnut production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 16,500 tons, unchanged from the

September 1 report. Harvest has not yet started because the crop maturity is about 7 to 10 days later than

normal. Some growers expect additional leaf debris during harvest due to the later nut drop. Nut sizes are

expected to average larger than normal. Filbert worm problems appear to be in the normal range.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.59 million pounds for September, 5 percent lower

than August and 13 percent lower than a year ago. Area devoted to papayas totaled 3,745 acres in September,

3 percent higher than August and 22 percent higher than last September. Area harvested, totaling 2,335 acres,

was 3 percent lower than last month but 19 percent higher than September 1997. 

September weather conditions were a mix of sunshine and light showers over major papaya producing areas. 

Yields in non-irrigated fields were lower due to flower drop, a result of drought conditions earlier in the year.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 49 NASS, USDA

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 25 and

October 3 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn,

soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent

of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted

within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are

recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, pods, or

bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected

biological yield. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited

each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested

the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal

interviewers. Approximately 15,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions

about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported survey estimates were

reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also

reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to the previous month and previous years. 

Each State Statistical Office submited their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics

Board (ASB). The ASB used the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published October 1

forecast.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made

each month throughout the growing season. At the end of the marketing year, administrative records and a

balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports, processing, feeding, and ending stocks. 

Revisions are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a

production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the

last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecasts, the "Root

Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between

the October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. 

The average of squared percentage deviations for the 1978-1997 20-year period is computed. The square root

of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made

concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming

that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is

4.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or

below the final estimate by more than 4.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that

the difference will not exceed 7.2.

Also shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between the

October 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1

forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 272 million bushels, ranging from

4 million to 626 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 6 times and above

4 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final

production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final estimate is

about equally distributed.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 50 NASS, USDA

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Crop Unit

Root Mean

Square Error

10-Year Record of

Differences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Percent

90

Percent

Confidence

Interval

Quantity Years

Average Smallest Largest Below

Final

Above

Final

Million Million Million Number Number

Corn For Grain

Sorghum for Grain

Rice

Soybeans for Beans

Cotton

Dry Edible Beans

Bu

Bu

Cwt

Bu

Bales

Cwt

4.2

5.9

3.1

3.7

6.0

3.5

7.1

10.1

5.3

6.4

10.4

6.1

272

31

4

42

825

0.6

4

6

0

2

84

0.1

626

105

13

103

2,366

1.3

6

6

4

7

6

6

4

4

6

3

4

4
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 51 NASS, USDA

Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843

Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-9526

Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688

Doug Hartwig - Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Dean Groskurth, Head (202) 720-3843

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,

Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215

Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,

Mushrooms (202) 690-0270

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157

Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288

Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940

The next “Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 10, 1998.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 52 NASS, USDA

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race,

color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family

status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for

communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET

Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building,

14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is

an equal opportunity provider and employer.

ACCESS TO REPORTS!!

For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services:

INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to

the NASS Home Page at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select “Today’s Reports” or Publications and then Reports by

Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject.

E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION

All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Send an e-mail message

to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list.

AUTOFAX ACCESS

NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset

attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports.

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ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services,

contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:

nass@nass.usda.gov.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1998 53 NASS, USDA

USDA to Hold Public Forum

October 19, 1998

Holiday Inn Mart Plaza

Chicago, Illinois

The National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing

an open forum for Data Users. The purpose will be to

provide updates on pending changes in the USDA statistical

and information programs, and to seek comments and input

from data users. Other agencies to be represented will

include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic

Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and the

World Agricultural Outlook Board.

For registration details, see the NASS home page at

http://www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Fred Vogel (NASS) at 

(202) 720-3896 or at fvogel@nass.usda.gov