1960 1961 3

1,000 ACRES

423 620
40 35
37 ag
270 275
760 790
177 181
328 327
1,300 1,380
50 62
11,460 11,260 1
6,280 6,000
13,300 13,700 1
1,180 1,260
1,480 1,490
30 33
640 690
2,600 2,850
6,290 6,770
88 115
27070 1,940
8 10
7,100 6980
118 125
as 78
730 800
14730 17830
290 513
3,900 3,750
75 55
13 22
1,280 1,400
515 570
2,300 2,580
640 640
1,300 1,090
UTAH 1/8 15 15
vT ast
va z 595 625
WASH 1/8 86 103
WA 1/t 58 68
wis : 3,350 3,500
WYO 1/8 37 46
us 2 73,030 74,624 7

CORN FoR

Ino
1982

620
190
69

2,623

GRAIN

BUSHELS

55,0
130.0
65,0
130.0
137.0

83.0
55.0
50,0
110.0
129.0
109,0
127.0
126.0
100.0
73.0

105.0

96.0
110.0
56.0
110.0
85.0
115.0

99,0
120.0
93.0
717.0
81.0
96.0
70,0
125.0
96,0

54.0
70.0
86.0
117.0
110.0

90,0
125.0
92,0
108,09
110.0
109.9

PRODUCTION

1,000 BUSHELS

65,0 15,228 34,100 = 29,280
125.0 4,000 4,350 3,750
63.0 1,036 3,185 1,890
130.0 36,450. 35,750 40, 300
136,0 89,680 108,230 115,600

96,0 12,744 15,023 16,800
62.0 15,416 17,985 15,190
80,0 54,600 69,000 63,200
115.0 5,250 6,820 6,325
135.0 1,065,780 1,452,540 1,525,500
125.0 602,880 654,000 787,500
124.9 1,463,000 1,739,900 1,636,800
118.0 110,920 158,760 146,320
102,0 103,600 149,000 153,000
65.0 1,380 2,409 2,860

101.0 46,080 720450 66,680

105.0 247,000 273,600 294,000
108,0 610,130 744,700 685,800

62.0 2,464 6,440 5,580
109,710 213,400 2024650

592 850 450

603,500 802,700 800,400

93.0 8,850 12,375 10,416
110.0 7,225 9,000 9,570

87.0 67,890 74,400 66,120
95.0 103,800 140,910 156,750

74,0 16,820 41,553 44,400
114,0 440,700 360,000 467,400
85,0 5,250 3,850 4,675
125.0 1,430 2,750 3,900

90,9 96,000 134,400 123,300

85.0 24,720 33,060 28,900
74,0 121,900 180,600 170,200
85.0 29,440 55,040 51,000
105,0 117,000 127,530 120,750

105.0 1,500 1,650 1,575
96.0 32,725 56,250 59,520
130.0 11,000 12,575 24,700
93.0 5,162 6,256 opal?
104,0 348,400 376,000 358,600
109.0 3,569 5,060 5,200

114.2 6,644,841 8,200,951 6,314,935

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982

B-1

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PECANS

PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE : TOTAL

1981

1,000 POUNDS

: 10,400 21,000 16,000
ARK : 200 1,250 300
FLA : 2,500 2,000 1,800
GA 84,000 96,000 88,000
LA 2,000 4,500 2,500
MISS 3 3,500 5,500 3,500
N MEX, : 14,700 20,000 18,000
NC 2st 1,100 2,000 1,100
OKLA : 500 2,500 800
sc 1,600 4,800 2,500
TEX 8,000 15,000 15,000
us 128,500 174,550 149,500

PECANS NATIVE & SEEDLING
ALA : 9,600 13,000 8,000
ARK : 700 4,250 1,000
FLA : 3,500 s 2,700
GA : 21,000 24,000 22,000
LA : 12,000 19,500 9,500
MISS : 7,000 3,000 1,500
NC er: 600 2,200 1,200
OKLA : 3,000 44,500 4,200
sc : 600 4,100 1,000
TEX : 3,000 47,000 10,000
us : 55,000 164,550 61,100
ALL PECANS :

ALA 20,000 34,000 24,000
ARK : 900 5,500 1,300
FLA : 6,000 5,000 4,500
GA : 105,000 120,000 110,000
LA : 14,000 24,000 12,000
MISS t 4,500 8,500 5,000
N MEX : 14,700 20,000 18,000
NC an 1,700 4,200 2,300
OKLA : 3,500 47,000 5,000
$c : 2,200 8,900 3,500
TEX : 11,000 62,000 25,000
us : 183,500 339,100 210,600

1/ BUDDED,GRAFTED,OR TOPWORKED VARIETIES.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

FRESH PRODUCTION

TOTAL IN CROP
FORECAST
1982

AUG
SEP
OCT 3,210 2,240 4,922 4,100
NOV : 3,260 2,235 4,800 4,300
DEC : 3,240 2,235 3,572 3,650

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


The eight Central States expect to produce 67.8 million cwt of potatoes in 1982, up 6
percent from last year and 24 percent above the short 1980 crop. Yields are forecast at 217 cwt
per acre, a 1 cwt decline from last year, but 24 cwt above two years ago. Acreage for harvest,
at 312 thousand acres, gained 6 percent over last year and 10 percent over 1980. With the
exception of the Red River Valley, most Central States potato areas had better yields than last
year. Growers in Michigan report good to excellent quality potatoes. Yields are generally above
jast year despite af some localized dry weather in July and early frost damage on a few northern
fields. In Ohio many growers expect near record yields. Wisconsin had an excellent growing
season with plenty of moisture and a record high yield. Production is up 24 spercent from last
year. Potato sizes are large but in some cases irregular. In North Dakota and Minnesota, heavy
summer rains drowned out some acreage and delayed development. Production is down 14 and 8
percent, respectively, from last year in these two States. Ory weather in the late growing
season reduced sizes and created digging problems.

In the nine Western States, production is expected to total 194 million cwt. This is up 5
percent from last year and 14 percent above two years ago. Average yields climbed to 325 cwt
per acre, up 6 cwt from last year, but 2 cwt short of 1980. Area for harvest, at 598 thousand
acres, is up 3 percent from last year and 15 percent above a short 1980 harvest. Production in
Idaho is forecast at 90.7 million cwt, up 7 percent from 1981. Acreage is up 4 percent and
yields are estimated 9 cwt above last year. The growing season was excellent but harvest is
lagging behind the average rate of progress, having been slowed by rain and cold weather. The
Washington crop is forecast at 55.0 million cwt, up 4 percent from last year, with both acreage
and yield showing increases. Harvest is _a little behind schedule, but growers are rapidly
hauling potatoes to storage. Acreage in Oregon is down 6 percent, leading to a corresponding
decline in expected production. Harvest progress is late where September rains interrupted field
work. Digging in the California Tulelake-Butte Valley area is just beginning. Quality appears
to be down slightly but yields are about the same as last year.

All_potato production (all four seasons) in the United States for 1982 is estimated at 350
million cwt (15.9 million metric tons), 3 percent above 1981 and 16 percent above 1980. The
average yield per acre, at 274 cwt is unchanged from last year but 12 cwt above 1980. Area for
harvest is set at 1.28 million acres (518 thousand hectares), an increase of 3 percent over last
year and 11 percent above 1980.

Revised winter potato production for 1982 totaled 2.26 million cwt (103 thousand metric
tons), 3 percent above 1981 but 4 percent below 1980 output. Harvested area, at 11.0 thousand
acres (4450 hectares), was down 5 percent from 1981 and 4 percent from 1980. Average yield, at
206 cwt per acre, compares with 189 cwt in 198% and 205 cwt in 1980. Heavy rains in late April
flooded out some fields in the Homestead area of Florida and delayed. harvest wind-up.

POTATO PRODUCTION

MmLIMH on,

ne
AOS
Cc
rv

preeeient)

SWEETPOTATOES: The final forecast of 1982 sweetpotato production in the United States is

estimated at 14.6 million cwt (661 thousand metric tons), up 2 percent from the
September 1 forecast and 14 percent above last year's production. Yield per acre, at 128 cwt,
is 3 cwt above last month and 11 cwt greater than a year ago. Area for harvest is 114 thousand
acres (46.3 thousand hectares), an increase of 5 percent from last year.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SOYBEANS FOR BEANS wv

PRODUCTION

s AREA "HARVESTED
STATE Pemewwwnenn,

2 IND

1NO +

: 1980 1981 3 1982 t 1940 tigen t 1982 ¢
: 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
'
ALA t 2,100 2,020 2,050 = 1540 2340 © 27,0 © 31,500 46,460 = 55, 350
ARK 4,350 4,500 4,600 15,0 22.0 26,0 65,250 99,000 119,600
OEL ave 260 260 270-2040 27,0 280 5,200 7,020 7,560
FLA ast 460 460 59522 25.0 11,040
GA 2,140 2,100 2,600 = 11,0 25.0
TLL $9,250 97250 90420 33.5 40.0
INO 2 4,380 4,600 4,550 3640 010 157,680 151,800 182,000
IOWA = ~— 8,270 8,150 8,550 38,5 38,0 318/395 326,000 324,906
KANS t 1,450 1,510 1,800 © 16.8 26.0 23,925 45,300 46,800
ky 3 1,600 1,650 1,660 22.5 31.0 36,000 are 850 51,460
LA t 3,350 3,130 2,950 20,0 27,0 67,000 79,650
MD : 390 370 405 24,0 29.0 2360 11,745
MICH 950 970 1,040 3240 31.0 30,400 32,200
WINN t 4,760 4,350 9,850 3165 36.0 © 149,940 174,600
MISS t 3,850 3,600 3,600 1640 26.0 61,600 93,600
Mo 5,530 5,100 5,850 24,5 31,0 135,465 181,350
NEBR z 1,770 2,070 2,300 30.0 37,0 53,100 85,100
NJ ast 194 168 170 18.0 30.0 92 00
NY 3/3 19 24,0 ase
nc 3 1,930 1,850 2,050 18,0 25,0 34,740 46,250 51,250
N OAK a7 200 230 3450 17,5 23.0 3,500 6440 7,935
OHIO. === 3, 760 3,500 3,730 3640 37,0 135,360 99,750 138,016
OKLA av 300 270 280 10.0 23.0 6,480 6,400
PA ass 103 100 1000 24,5 31.0 3,100
sc z 1,600 1,550 1,850 13.0 22.0 31,000
SOAK 770 770 620-2640 31.0 22,330
TENN | t 2,550 2,350 2,350 1640 25.0 61,100
TEX : 630 480 1,020 22.0 27.0 10,560
VA 3 610 635 665 15,0 28.0 16,828
wis ast 330 375 450 33,0 33.0 10,890 12,375 14,850
us t 67,856 66,368 70,920 26,4 32.4 1,792,062 2,000,145 2,300,345

Af REVISED,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CAPRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
3/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP,

AREA PLANTED, SUNFLOWERS 1/

1,000 ACRES
OIL VARIETIES
MINN

650
DAK 2,420
S DAK 448
TeX 27
us 3,545
NON-OIL_VARIETIES :
: 85
N OAK : 230
S_DAK t 2
TEX : 3
us : 320
TOTAL :
MINN: : 735

V/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ‘SRS, USDA => “~


RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1% PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield surveys taken about
October 1. The yield surveys included mailed reports from farmers for all crops and actual
field observations and measurements for corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat, and some fruit and nut
crops. Farmers provided appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops
on their farms and for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided smat] plot observa-
tions, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These surveys are subject to sampling
and non-sampling type errors that are common to all surveys. More importantly, the production
forecasts are subject to change due to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be
measured currently but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in this report, the
“Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is shown below for
selected crops. This is computed by expressing the deviations between the October 1 production
forecasts and the final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1962-81 twenty year period; the square root of this average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error", Probability statements can be made concerning ex-
pected differences in the current forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates,
assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing
recent years.

For example, the “Root Mean Square Error“ for the October 1 corn for grain production
forecast is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production
forecast of 8315 million bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8
percent or approximately 316 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence
level) that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approximately 549 million bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between
the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between
the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 244 million
bushels, ranging from 16 million to 548 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 8 times and above 2 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn
forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. For most crops, the
number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final estimates is about equally
distributed,

RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR TEN YEAR RECORD OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
3 FORECAST AND FINAL ESTIMATE

+ 90% CONFIDENCE :

CROP AND H
UNIT 3

FEED GRAINS 1/ MT

: 3.1 5.4 1 8 2

CORN FOR GRAIN BU 2 3.8 6.6 16 548 8 2
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN BU : 4.6 8.0 3 76 4 6
ALL WHEAT BU 1.3 2.2 1 44 6 4
OURUM BU 2 4.5 7.8 1 8 6 4
OTHER SPRING BU : 3.1 5.4 0 13 7 3
RICE CWT 2.7 4.7 0 7 6 4
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS BU 23.4 5.9 35 120 6 4
COTTON BALES 2/: 5.4 9.3 7 1,273 5 5
FALL POTATOES CWT : 2.5 4.3 1 13 9 1

1/_ CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


APPLES, COMMERCIAL 1/

PRODUCTION
TOTAL 2/
INDICATED
1982
MILLION POUNDS

ARK ; 3: 10.0 23.0 14.0
CALIF : 520.0 626.0 480.0
COLO : 70.0 75.0 40.0
CONN : 42.0 38.0 50.0
DEL 3/: 13.5 13.1 13.7
GA 3): 36.0 45.0 15.0
IDAHO : 165.0 135.0 125.0
ILL 101.0 103.0 90.0
IND : 71.0 68.0 73.0
TOWA a: 8.4 11.0 9.5
KANS 3/: 11.0 14.0 12.5
KY i: 19.0 21.0 12.0
MAINE : 85.0 80.0 89.0
MD 90.0 70.0 80.0
MASS 100.0 83.0 103.0
MICH : 900.0 660.0 950.0
MINN 3/: 23.0 22.0 23.0
MO : 56.0 62.0 45.0
NH 58.0 45.0 57.0
Nd : 110.0 95.0 125.0
N MEX 3/: 12.0 17.0 18.0
NY : 1,100.0 800.0 1,130.0
NC : 410.0 375.0 135.0
OHIO : 170.0 100.0 165.0
OREG : 195.0 155.0 165.0
PA : 570.0 400.0 570.0
RI : 5.5 4.5 6.5
SC 3: 32.0 36.0 6.0
TENN 3): 8.0 11.0 4.0
UTAH cyan 52.0 54.0 50.0
vT : 50.0 28.0 50.0
VA : 420.0 465.0 430.0
WASH : 3,005.0 2,750.0 3,000.0
W VA : 245.0 200.0 260.0
WIS : 65.0 59.0 61.0
U.S. 8,828.4 7,743.6 8,457.2

1/ IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES.
2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1980-18.0,1981-47.7.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

PRODUCTION
BUSHELS 7,000 BUSHELS
37.0 1,122 2,146 + 2,800
83.0 1,950 2,158 960
57.0 5,887 16,986 16,000
74.0 11,096 ='10,212,-—S-11,376
35.0 12,250 12,775 13,200
33.0 1,968 © 4,455 4,500
63.0 3,658 5,544 5,440
60.0 46 720 910
88.0 1,330 1,760 1,206
67.0 «0 149,640 238,520 204,600
75.0 1,300 2,250 2,660
34.0 36.0 476 02,592 5,735
35-0 44.0 1,330 3,872 5,500
48,0 80.0 41,280 75,200 _ 68,850
60.0 80.0 121,800 164,800 134,300
40.0 45.0 10,280 12,280 12,040
36.0 53.0 2,232 4,134 3,570
34.0 42.0 16,320 22,050 17,550
50.0 250
22.0 32.0 330 576 1,400
33.0 43.0 10,725 19,565 18,000
42.0 56.0 1,470 3,752 3,850
62.0 181,700 273,420 286,000
49.0 387 539 588

579,197 880,266 821, 035

Y ESTIMATES | FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP.

1981: _ 1982

an 000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 cnt

ARK :—-'1,280.0 1,540.0 1,330.0 4,110 4,580 4,350 52,615 69,928 57,855
CALIF : 565.0 "605.0 560.0 6,440 7,200 6,800 36,386 43,560 38,080
tA : 585.0 667.0 598.0 3,550 4,010 4,050 20,768 26,752 24,219
MISS : 240.0 337.0 260.0 3,840 4,390 4,200 © 9,226 ~=«*14,792 ‘10,920
MOO: 56.0 76.0 80.0 4,180 4,080 4,200 2,341 © 3,099 3,360
TEX : _ $86.0 579.0 «458.0 4,230 4,700 4,800 24,814 «27,239 21,984
US + 3,312.0 3,804.0 3,286.0 4,413 4,873 4,760 146,150 185,370 156s 2418

YU ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

3 WINTER 3 SPRING
YEAR : HARD SOFT HARD
RED RED WHITE ¢ RED DURUM

1,000 BUSHELS

1979 : 1,088,918 316,698 195,648 362,891 106,654 63,281 2,134,060
1980 t= 1,181,126 435,347 278,910. 311,446 108,395 59,080 2,374,306
1981 ? 1,415,465 673,316 309,938 467,566 185,940 44,211 2,793,436
1982 17 + 1,262,502 604, gag 238, 798 $04,136 150,879 49,348 2,810,512

1/ INDICATED OCTOBER 1, 1982,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


1981

625 640
195 190
gat 950
1,550 1,565
1,500 1,455
86 66
18 17
240 230
460 a7s
1,380 1,390
1,160

315
2,290
384
3,230
1,380
1,679
1,060
1,950
i
218
4,310
1,270
2,830
600
447
975
855
620
3,600
1,212
60,212

AREA HARVESTEN

1,600 ACRES

IND
1962

670
175
900
1,490
1,470
84

19
230
S00
1,410
1,110
800
2,270
2,350
1,570
370
223
Aas
119
1,250
2870
625
3,480
2340
3,800
495
89
ite
315
2,325
395
3,350
1-400
1,400
1,160
2,900
10
220
4,350
1,220
3,000
605
450
1,010
800
640
3,675
1,190

60,521

ALL HAY

1980

1,65
6.46
1433
4.99
2.18
1.95
2.22
2.50
1.60
3.16
3,07
2,74
3.54
1.93
1,90
1.72
1,65
2,40
2.17

3

1981

TONS

1.80
6.40
1.90
5.02
2.27
2.03
2.65
2610
2615
3.12
3.07
2.87
3,69
2.64
2.12
202k
1.81
2.42
2.30
3.07
2.87
1.85
1.90
2.07
1.94
2.27
2.18
2.51
3.99
2.30
1.66
1.47
2.52
1.98
2.72
2.33
1.73
1.90
1.34
1.64
2.46
3.64
2.18
1.68
2.97
1.32
3.07
1.76
2.38

PRODUCTION

IND
1980 = 1981 1982
1,000 TONS
1,031 1,152 1,273
14260 1,216 1,238
1,221 1,806 1,759
7,736 7,851 7,517
3,276 3,303 3,353
108 175 170
40 as a9
552 463 506
136 1,024 1,200
4,395 4,343 4,564
3,558 3,501 3,555
2,208 2,256 2,927
8,037 8,224 8,660
4,102 6,070 6,333
2,970 3,304 3,518
612 805 B17
362 401 a7
S64 551 592
258 278 294
3,844 3,894 417s
7115 8,206 7,988
1,040 1,249 1,313
4,470 6,750 6,379
4,170 4,608 5,278
7,083 T1165 8,273
1,095 1,046 1,103
187 201 189
255 276 298
1,144 1,256 1,248
5,787 5,273 5,430
592 636 bea
2,519 4,761 5,875
3,588 3,473 3,685
2,315 3,307 2,684
2,978 2,886 3,012
4,182 4,535 4,660
18 19 18
354 aia 404
5,359 5,786 9,778
14764 2,078 14950
5,515 6,959 7,120
2,058 2,186 2,154
B86 973 870
1,626 1,640 1,649
2,625 2,542 2,455
977 617 830
42,545 11,055 12,293
1,850 2,129 2,377
131,027 143,105 152,474

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, :OCTOBER 1982

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


OURUM WHEAT

HARVESTED

PRODUCTION

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ARIZ 1/3 155 21s 79 80.0 A566 90.0 12,400 18,275 7,110
CALIF 1/3 100 165 125 7B.0 89,0 93.0 7,600 14,685 11,625
MINN 3 120 135 7& 28.0 40.0 38,0 3,360 5,400 2.964
MONT 3 400 486 Bao 19,0 23.0 30.0 7,600 11,040 10,200
N DAK 3 3,650 4,510 34500 19,0 29.0 33.0 73,150 130,790 115,500
S DAK 215 250 145 19.0 23.0 24,0 4,085 5,750 34,480
us : 4,840 5,755 4,267 22.4 32.3 35.4 106,395 165,949 150,879

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

OTHER SPRING WHEAT

PRODUCTION

1982 2 1980

1,000 ACRES

1,000 BUSHELS

St 47 62.0 75.0 3,100 3,519 3,525
550 580 69.0 70,0 34,100 40,600
3,350 3,020 32,5 39.0 , 134,000 117,780
25790 2,680 22.5 33.0 57,375 72,540 95,090
16 10 6060 60.0 1,020 3800 840
7,050 6,900 18.5 32,0 105,450 197,400 220,800
110 100 36.0 40,0 5,400 4,180 4,000
2,400 2,300 18.0 25.0 37,440 $2,800 57,500
30 33 48.0 59.0 1,440 1,350 1,650
2a 280 42.0 37.0 17,220 7,040 10,360
28 268 31.0 32.0 m3 866 B96
18.0 29.0 360 180 493

9 17
16,604 16,199 25.3 34,2 370,526 508,777 553,464

‘1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEN FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

AREA PLANTED, SOYBEANS 1/

1,000 ACRES 7,000 ACRES

ALA : 2,050 : 5,180
ARK : 4,550 : 2,150
DEL : 265 : 170
FLA : 475 : 1,920
GA : 2,300 : 235
TLt : 9,350 : 3,550
IND : 4,650 : 280
TOWA : 8,200 : 105
KANS. : 1,540 : 1,600
KY : 3,700 3 780
LA 3 3,210 : 2,450
"Oo 3 375 : 560
MICH : 980 : 645
MINN : 4,460 380
MISS : 3,700

67,810
7 REVISED,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



GRAPES

PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE : TOTAL 1/

GRAPES TABLE TYPE

CALIF : 428,000 420,000 500,000
GRAPES WINE TYPE :
CALIF : 2,004,000 1,794,000 2,200,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE DRIED 2/:
CALIF t 309,000 256,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE NOT DRIED:
CALIF 3 1,080,000 755,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE :
CALIF : 2,692,000 1,779,000 2,500,000
ALL GRAPES :
ARIZ a/: 12,400 12,400 14,000
ARK 4a/: 6,600 6,000 8,500
CALIF Hy 5,124,000 3,993,000 5,200,000
MICH : 49,500 53,000 §5,000
MO 3 4,200 2,200 2,400
NY 175,000 150,000 166,000
NC 5,800 5,100 6,000
OHIO : 12,000 10,300 10,500
PA + 56,000 61,000 55,000
WASH : 145,100 159,000 187,000
OTHER STATES 4/ S/: 4,500 5,600 5,200
us 5,595,100 4,457, 600 5,679,600

Vv INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS); US 1980-300, 1981-600.

2/ DRIED BASIS:1? TON OF RAISINS IS EQUIVALENT TO 5.22 TONS OF FRESH GRAPES FOR 3980 AND
4.00 TONS FOR 1981. 3/ FRESH EQUIVALENT OF DRIED AND NOT DRIEO. 4/ ESTIMATES FOR
CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 5/ GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA,

PRUNES AND PLUMS

V/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS): U.S. 1981-4,500.

FILBERTS

PRODUCTION

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



PAPAYAS: Hawaii fresh papaya production in October is forecast at 4.10 million pounds (1860

metric tons), up 12 percent from September but down 17 percent from a year ago. A
fall seasonal peak of 4.30 million pounds (1950 metric tons) is anticipated in November and wil]
be followed by a 15 percent drop in December. A January forecast of 4.10 million pounds (1860
metric tons) will start the 1983 fresh production. Because of improved weather conditions,
fresh production forecasts have been revised upward for the next quarter.

September fresh production is estimated at 3.67 million pounds (1660 metric tons), up 13
percent from August but down 37 percent from a year ago. A surge in fresh production during the
second half of September contributed to the increase in expectations for production during the
month. Excellent weather in September provided good crop growth. The clear weather also
permitted farmers to initiate spray programs to control disease and weed problems.

Total area in crop, at 3205 acres (1300 hectares), increased 1 percent in September from the
previous month, as farmers continue to plant new fields, replacing those lost earlier this year.

PECANS: U.S. pecan production is forecast at 211 million pounds (95.5 thousand metric tons), 1

percent more than the September 1? forecast, but 38 percent below last year's crop.
Production forecasts increased from last month for Alabama and decreased for Mississippi while
all other State estimates remain unchanged.

The Georgia forecast continues at ??0 mittion pounds, 8 percent tess than 1987. Although
prospects are favorable, limb breakage has been reported widely and disease and insect problems
have been.prevalent. Pecan hulls are beginning to crack and a very limited harvest has started
in southern Georgia. The Alabama forecast is now 24.0 million pounds, up 20 percent from last
month but 29 percent below last year. The Texas crop forecast continues at 25.0 million pounds,
down 60 percent from 1981.

Production from improved varieties in the U.S. is expected to account for 71 percent of this
year's crop compared with 51 percent last year and 70 percent in 1980.

FILBERTS: The production forecast for filberts in Oregon and Washington, at 17.0 thousand tons
(15.4 thousand metric tons), is unchanged from last month and 16 percent above last
year's production. .

Harvesting of nuts is just beginning in the Willamette Valley. Nut drop was slightly ahead
of normal this year.

ORANGES: The first forecast of U.S. orange production for the 1982-83 season is 216 million

boxes (8.33 million metric tons), 21 percent more than Jast season, but 12 percent
below the 1980-81 harvest. The forecast for production of all oranges in Florida is 143 million
boxes, 14 percent above last season's crop, but 17 percent less than 1980-81. Production of
early and mid-season varieties in Florida at 72.0 million boxes is 3 percent less than last
season and 32 percent below the 1980-81 crop. Valencia production in Florida is expected to
total 71.0 million boxes, 37 percent more than last season's crop and 6 percent above 1980-81
production. The California orange crop is forecast at 63.0 million boxes, 47 percent more than
last season, but 3 percent below the 1980-81 season. The Navel crop is California is expected
to total 37.0 million boxes, 37 percent above the 1981-82 crop, but 5 percent below the record
high 1980-8) crop. The Valencia forecast for California is 26.0 million boxes, 63 percent
greater than last season's crop, but 2 percent below the 1980-81 season. The Arizona ail orange
crop is expected to total 3.30 million boxes, 8 percent more than last season and 27 percent
above the 1980-81 crop. All orange production in Texas is forecast at 6.20 million boxes, up 4
percent from last season and 43 more than in 1980-81.

Most of Florida's citrus groves were in excellent condition during September. Moisture
Jevels were adequate to surplus depending on location and amounts of rain received. The last
week of the month was very wet with many Caretakers ditching and deep plowing middles to remove
standing water. Fruit coloring progressed very wel} in al) areas. Fruit sizes are Jarge for
September which may be attributable to the early bloom this past February and March. The fresh
fruit packinghouses were packing and shipping more early citrus such as Hamlin and Navel
oranges, white and pink grapefruit, K-Early citrus fruit and Robinson tangerines than in any
year in recent history. The quality of the fruit shipped to date has been good from all areas.
Caretakers were active in cover crop removal, spot sprayings and continued major pruning of
freeze damaged trees.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


OURUM WHEAT: Durum wheat production its forecast at 151] million bushels (4.11 million metric

— tons}, up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast, 19 percent below last year's
record high production, but 39 percent above production in 1980. The decline in production from
1981 results from a substantial reduction in area for harvest this year in all durum wheat
producing States, which is only partially offset by increased yield. Area for harvest of 4.27
million acres (1.73 million hectares) is down 26 percent from 1981, down 12 percent from 1980,
and is the smallest area harvested since 1979 when 3.93 million acres (1.59 million hectares)
were harvested.

Yield per harvested acre is expected to average a record high 35.4 bushels per acre compared
with the previous record high of 33.1 bushels in 1978, 32.3 bushels last year and 22.4 bushels
fin 1980. Average yield was up 1 bushel per acre from last month in North Dakota, to a record
high yield, but down 2 bushels in Minnesota. Yield was unchanged in Montana and South Dakota.
Durum wheat harvest made good progress in North Dakota in early September as favorable weather
prevailed. By September 26, 98 percent of the durum acreage was combined compared with 100
percent Jast year and the average of 89 percent. Good weather kept sprouting and other quality
loss to a minimum. In Montana, more than adequate soil moisture throughout the growing season
has resulted in an excellent durum wheat crop.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production of spring wheat other than durum is forecast at a record high 553

million bushels (15.1 million metric tons), 9 percent above the previous
record high set last year and 49 percent above production for 1980. The current estimate is down
1 percent from the September J forecast. The expected increase in production over the previous
record crop of 1981 results from higher yields which were only partially offset by a decline in
acreage for harvest.

Yield per harvested acre is expected to average a record high 34.2 bushels per acre compared
with the previous record high of 30.7 bushels in 1971, 30.6 bushels last year and 25.3 bushels
in 1980. The forecast for last month was 34.7 bushels per acre. Idaho registered a yield
increase of 1 bushel] per acre from Jast month, while Minnesota and Montana decreased 2 bushels
and 1 bushel, respectively. Other States were unchanged from the September 1 forecast. States
reporting record high yields were Idaho, Montana and North Dakota. As of September 26, harvest
was completed in South Dakota and nearing completion in Minnesota and North Dakota--about normal
for those States. In Idaho, harvest was 92 percent completed compared with 98 percent in 1981
and the average for the date of 92 percent. Montana harvest was running later than normal with
only 90 percent of the crop harvested compared with 100 percent last year and the average of 95
percent.

RICE: Production, as of October 1, is forecast at 156 million hundred-weight (7.10 million

metric tons), down 1 percent from the September 1 forecast and 16 percent below last
year's production. Even with the drop in prospects from the September 1 forecast, 1982
production remains the second highest of record.

Nationally, yields are expected to average 4760 pounds per acre, second only to the 4873
pounds harvested in 1981. Yield prospects are above 1981 in Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas with
Missouri showing the largest increase. Arkansas, California and Mississippi expect lower
yields. Louisiana is still expected to reach a record yield despite a drop from last month.

Harvest was nearly complete in Texas and Louisiana. Harvest in Arkansas had reached 62
percent by October 3, well below last year's 77 percent but above the average of 57 percent.
The Mississippi crop was 60 percent harvested compared with 78 percent Jast year and 69 percent
average. Harvest has been slowed by lodging as a result of winds and rain from the remnants of
tropical storm Chris on September 12 and 13, 1982.

SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at a record high 2.30 billion bushels (62.6 million metric

tons), down 1 percent from last month's forecast, but 15 percent more than last
year's crop and 1 percent above the previous record high of 1979. Yield per acre is indicated
at a record high 32.4 bushels, 0.2 of a bushel) less than last month but 2.3 bushels above the
1981 crop.

Soybeans were reportedly in good condition on October 3 in most of the Corn Belt and fair to
mostly good in all other areas. In the 18 major States, leaves were dropping on 67 percent of
the acreage compared with 68 percent a year ago. Harvesting was underway in most States with 15
percent combined by October 3, slightly behind last year.

In the North Central States, yield prospects increased 2.0 bushels from a month earlier in

Minnesota. Yields in Illinois, Iowa and Ohio dropped 1.0 bushel, and Michigan showed a decline
of 2.0 bushels. The remaining States were unchanged from a month ago.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


HOPS

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION 1/
STATE jn---- n-ne none nnn enn ee een nnn wen nnn ne enn n nnn enn ener n enn e nee e eee nne

3 : 3 3 IND
1980 : 1981 : : 1981 : 1982

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
CALIF 1,640 1,400 1,700 1,968 1,680 850
IDAHO 1,960 1,650 1,740 5,488 5,610 6,438
OREG 1,960 1,720 1,820 12,152 12,384 13,286
WASH 2,080 1,900 2,080 55,952 59,470 58,448
us 2,037 1,836 1,996 75,560 79,144 79,022

1/_ 1982 QUANTITIES AVAILABLE FOR MARKET WILL BE GOVERNED BY REGULATIONS ISSUED UNDER FEDERAL
MARKET ORDER 997.
2/ INCLUDES HOPS LOST BY FIRE(POUNDS): OREG-89,000, WASH-799,000.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/

AVERAGE 1981 1982 AVERAGE : 19817 1982
1971-80 1971-80: 3
PERCENT PERCENT

75 73 75 65 93
70 72 86 97 82
73 82 77 78 74
73 81 89 95 85
69 72 89 91 73
81 76 81 78 77
79 72 72 74 73
81 82 85 83 79
71 54 78 85 73
81 78 94 79 86
77 89 88 79 7
85 88 82 80 81
78 85 90 58 78
73 86 83 63 91
85 87 92 85 88
77 72 79 78 50
80 92 86 78 97
77 78 71 93 80
82 79 80 84 80
80 86 85 80 74
75 84 83 77 75
77 74 85 87 87
71 86 93 86 96
77 77 92

72 83 93 80 81

© EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER ; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64; SEVERE
BROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE

1980 :

1981

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
LARGE LIMA BEANS
CALIF 34.0 30.0 34.0 2,230 2,070 2,090 758 621 ran}
BABY LIMA BEANS
Ci 19.0 27.0 28.5 2,350 2,330 2,200 447 629 627

AL IF
BEANS OTHER THAN LIMAS
CALIF 160.0 164.0 187.5 1,630 1,690 1,670 2,608 2,772 3,131
ALL DRY EDIBLE BEANS

CALIF

213.0 221.0 250-0 1,790 1,820 1,788 3,813 4,022 4,469

cOoLo : 185.0 190.0 170.0 1,160 1,450 1,100 2,146 2,755 1,870
IDAHO 179.0 243.0 141.0 1,860 1,760 1,820 3,329 4,277 2,566
KANS : 24.0 336 680 238
MICH : 570.0 7,752 7,198 7,290
MINN : 84.0 966 1,339 1,068
MONT 3 11,0 176 218 149
150.0 2,730 3,850 3,280

48.0 614 588 576

255.0 2,678 4,565 2,803

11.0 42 60 36

54.0 1,080 1,380 656

37.0 733 882 551

1,821.0 26,395 31,814 25,602

1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SWEETPOTATOES.

: AREA HARVESTED YIELD 3 PRODUCTION

STATE meee renew mann nena e ween en ne ween neenneeenen.
z IND 3 +
1984 1962 2 1980

1,000 ACRES

5.4 S 100 M15 110 530 oat 605
60 36
2 2380 185 190 1,912 1,647 1,748
3 100 115 {10 aso 64a 693
0 8s 100 105 2,125 2,600 2,835
3 150 173, 195 195 228 26a
9 90 95 105 aia agg 525
9 Is 110 110 276 27s 319
0 15 120 140 4,255 4,680 5,740
Ss 95 95, 115 238 333 S18
0 a0 80 5 160 14a 190
2 80 95 110 520 Tay 792
4 115 150 150 2a2 345 360
3 107 117 128 10,953 12,752 14,579

FALL POTATOES

1,000 ACRES

CALIF 18.7 18.5 18,8
COLO 40.5 26.5 28.0
ON 1.8 119.0 123.0
IDAHO-10 SW CO 24.0 9.8 10.0
~OTHER CO 317.0 3 10.3 10.2

IND 3.3 : 44.7 41.8
MAINE, 106.0 : 22.0 26.0
MASS 3.3 r 3.2 3.0
MICH 32.0 2 5.5 11.0
MINS 73.0 3 5.9 5.9
MONT 7.5 7 6
NEBR 8.0 : 108.0 110.0
NEV 12.0 : 55.0 66.0
: 5.5 5.3

TOTAL 1,075 9.

N

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SEPTEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

Persistant heavy showers from southern Illinois and western Kentucky into northern
Mississippi early in the month swelled small streams and caused local flooding throughout the
Tennessee Valley. The month began with dry weather in the winter wheat areas of the central and
southern Plains but showers and thunderstorms at midmonth and again at the end of the month
partially relieved the dry condition. Adequate rainfall and near normal temperatures allowed
crops to progress normally in the western Corn Belt, but the crops were already behind normal.
It was cooler than normal in the eastern part of the Belt. Freezing temperatures pushed into
the extreme northern Plains and northern Great Lakes region at midmonth. Near the end of the
month Tropical Storm Olivia pushed moisture through California and into the western mountains.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms during the first 4 days of the month caused local flooding
from Missouri to southern Illinois and from northwestern Georgia to eastern Kentucky. Lighter
showers covered the area from Arkansas to the Great Lakes and eastward to the Appalachian
Mountains.

FIRST WEEK...Unusually warm temperatures began through the Plains and spread slowly eastward
over the Corn Belt. Average temperatures for the week were over 6° warmer than normal in the
central and northern Plains. Moderate showers fell in the Southwest and central Rockies, while
heavier showers and thunderstorms covered the area from the central Plains to the western Great
Lakes. Moderate showers in the central Plains benefited the winter wheat areas but did not
extend southward into Oklahoma and Texas. A tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico spread rain
from Louisiana into Georgia and Florida.

SECOND WEEK...A mass of cool air moved into the Pacific Northwest and was augumented by
colder air from Canada which spread into the Rockies and across the northern Plains. Snow fell
in parts of the northern Rockies where temperatures were below the freezing point.
Early-morning freezing temperatures were also recorded over all but extreme eastern North Dakota
and in parts of northern Minnesota. Precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms
especially benefited the winter wheat areas in Oklahoma and northern Texas. The remnants of a
tropical storm spread heavy rain from the Mississippi Delta through Kentucky. The heavy rain in
Kentucky and Tennessee increased the problems associated with wet conditions already in those
areas.

THIRD WEEK...Unseasonably cold weather spread over all of the area east of the Rockies.
Average temperatures for the week were as much as 9 ta 12° colder than normal in the eastern
portion of the central Plains and in the Tennessee Valley and 6 to 10° colder over all of the
Corn Belt. Freezing temperatures in low places were reported as far south as central Nebraska
and northern Iowa. Light to moderate showers were spread over northern Texas and parts of the
east coast. Lighter showers fell throughout the East, but the northern and central Plains had
Vittle or no rain. Moisture from Tropical Storm Olivia swept northward through California and
caused unseasonable rain in the San Joaquin Valley.

FOURTH WEEK...The injection of moisture from Tropical Storm Olivia into the western mountain
area caused a persistant and complex storm that spread showers over the Plateau and northern
Rockies through the end of the month. Snow fell only at high elevations early in the period,
but after an outbreak of colder air from Canada, the snow spread to the central Plateau and the
High Plains of Montana. The remnants of Hurricane Paul moved over Mexico and into New Mexico on
the last day of the month and supplied moisture that triggered heavy showers from New Mexico to
the central Plains. (Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility).

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

Winter wheat seeding for 1983 harvest reached 53 percent complete by October 3, only 5
percentage points behind a year ago and 1] point behind average. Progress was behind average in
all States except California, Idaho, Kansas, and Washington. Showers and thunderstorms at
mid-month and again at the end of September helped relieve dryness on the central and southern
Plains. However, dry conditions persisted in some parts of Oklahoma and Texas and growers
delayed seeding in hopes of receiving rain.

Rains at mid-month provided moisture for planting of new crop wheat in some areas of Kansas,
but much wheat was seeded under dry conditions. Seeding was 70 percent complete by October 3,
compared with the average of 60 percent. Some fields in westcentral and southwestern Kansas
show uneven emergence because of dry conditions.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



CF

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OK

es cy

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982

A-6

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


The September rains were beneficial to California citrus by enhancing growth. Fruit size is
smaller than normal, although not as small as the 1980-81 fruit. Maturity is slower than last
season and quality is expected to be very good.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The forecast of 1982-83 FCOJ yield is 1.37 gallons per
box at 42.0 degrees brix equivalent. The yield fore-
cast is for the end-of-season average which wil] be reported at end of the season by the Florida
Citrus Processor's Association. The final 1981-82 season average yield was 1.27832 gallons per
box at 42.0 degrees brix equivalent.

GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects on October 1, for the 1982-83 season, excluding California "Other areas"

grapefruit, indicate a crop of 64.0 million boxes (2.38 million metric tons), 6
percent less than last season and virtually the same as the 1980-81 crop. The California “Other
areas" grapefruit production, which will be forecast as of April 1, 1983 accounted for 3.20
million boxes harvested last season and 3.80 million boxes in 1980-81.

Florida's grapefruit crop forecast of 44.0 million boxes is 9 percent less than season's
crop and 13 percent below 1980-81. The Texas crop of 13.5 million boxes is off 3 percent from
last season. Arizona growers expect to harvest 2.60 million boxes, 8 percent more than last
season. The crop in the California desert area is forecast at 3.90 million boxes, 14 percent
above the 1981-81 crop.

Limited harvest has begun in Florida while picking in western States will get underway later
this month. Florida fruit has developed well ahead of normal due to an early bloom this spring
and ideal growing conditions. Fruit size is large for this time of year and fruit coloring has
progressed well. Conditions remain good in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, although continued
dryness has caused irrigation to be heavy. Fruit sizing has been affected by extremely hot
temperatures but the outlook remains good for a large crop.

LEMONS: The Arizona-California lemon crop (tree crop available for harvest) is 28.5 million

boxes (982 thousand metric tons), 15 percent more than the crop harvested during the
1981-82 season, but 9 percent less than the record 1980-81 utilized production. In California,
the crop is expected to total 20.8 million boxes, 12 percent more than last season but 14
percent below 1980-81. Weather was extremely hot during the first part of September in the
southern coastal areas. Some sunburned fruit is evident but overall] damage appears light. Fruit
color is currently predominately dark green with smaller sizes and more pebbly textured fruit
than normal for this time of year.

In Arizona, a crop of 7.70 million boxes is expected, 22 percent more than the 1981-82 crop
harvested last season and 10 percent above the utilized production in 1980-81. Lemon harvest
continued throughout September in Yuma County and just got underway in Maricopa County.

TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-Early citrus fruit, is forecast at 4.20 million
boxes (171 thousand metric tons), 18 percent less than the 1981-82 crop and 74 percent
less than the 1980-81] production. Light harvest has begun.

TANGERINES: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 5.90 million boxes (230 thousand metric

tons), 18 percent more than last season and 6 percent above 1980-81. The Florida
forecast, at 3.20 million boxes, is for that portion of the crop expected to reach a size of 210
fruit per 4/5 bushel carton by December 1 for Dancy and November 1 for Robinson. (An estimate
of utilized crop will be shown in the February Crop Production release.) Picking of Robinson
tangerines is underway.

Prospects for California's tangerine crop at 2.00 million boxes are up 16 percent from last
season's production. Harvest will get underway in November. Arizona grower's expect to harvest
700 thousand boxes, 7 percent less than was harvested last season.

TEMPLES: Florida temples are forecast at 4.60 million boxes (188 thousand metric tons), 44 per-

cent above last season and 28 percent more than the 1980-81 crop. Harvest is expected
to begin by January 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-19 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


The corn crop continued in good to excellent condition in the Corn Belt and by October 1,
most corn was safe from a killing frost. Crop development continues ahead of normal in the
eastern Corn Belt. but is still lagging behind normal in the western Corn Belt. Nebraska Tags
most with only 30 percent of the crop mature on October 3 compared with 75 percent last year and

a five year average of 85 percent. In the 17 major producing States, 79 percent was mature on
October 3, compared with 84 percent last year. Harvest was 12 percent completed, 4 points behind

last year and 6 percentage points Tater than average. Harvest is underway in all major States.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION

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SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: Grain sorghum production is forecast at 821 million bushels (20.9 million

metric tons), down 7 percent from 1981, but 42 percent more than the 1980
drought-stricken crop. This is fractionally above the September 1 forecast, with Kansas
accounting for most of the increase. Yield per harvested acre is now expected to average 59.5
bushels, up 0.1 bushel from last month. The October 1 yield is 4.6 bushels Jess than last
year's record high yield, but 13.2 bushels above 1980.

Dry conditions hurt late planted sorghum in Oklahoma causing a 2 bushel decrease in yield
from the September 1 forecast. Nebraska average yield continued unchanged but the crop is about
three and one-half weeks behind normal maturity. As of October 3, Nebraska's sorghum was 10
percent mature compared with an average of 80 percent. Kansas yield increased 1 bushel. Crop
development is still behind schedule. As of October 3, Kansas‘s crop was 35 percent mature
compared with the average 65 percent.

Harvest is progressing well in Texas with 70 percent of the crop harvested as of October 3.
Harvesting progress in other States was: Kansas, 5 percent; Oklahoma, 10 percent; Missouri, 36
percent; and South Dakota, 6 percent. Colorado and Nebraska farmers had not started harvested
as of October 3.

ALL WHEAT: The combined production of winter, other spring and durum wheat in 1982 is estimated

at.a record high 2.81 billion bushels (76.5 million metric tons). The current
estimate is down fractionally from the September 1 forecast, but is 1 above the previous record
high production set in 1981 and 18 percent above production in 1980. Acreage for harvest in
1982 is down 2 percent from last year, but higher yields per acre in 1982 more than offset the
decline in acreage. Nationally, yield per harvested acre is expected to average a record high
35.6 bushels compared with the previous record high of 34.5 bushels last year and 33.4 bushels
in 1980.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


‘SUNFLOWERS

1981 1/

1,000 ACRES POUNDS, 7,000 POUNDS

7 835 631 1,190 1,170 993,650 738,270
NDAK : 2,050 2,400 ‘980 1,200 2,009,000 2,880,000
SOAK: 499 440 920 1,070 459,080 "470,800
Tex: 58 25 810 1,180 46,980 29,500
US =: 3,442 3,496 1,019 1,178 3,508,710 4,118,570
NON-OIL, VARIETIES
WINN >= 82 1,090 1,040 59,950 85,280
NODAK : 185 228 930 1,220 172,080 278,160
SOAK: 1 2 930 900 930 1,800
TeX: 0 3 0 1,200 0 33600
uso: 24) 315 967 1,171 232,930 368,840
TOTAL

890 713 525 1,184 1,155 1,300 1,053,600 823,550 682,500

N DAK 2,235 2,628 «= «3,548 «= «976 «1,202 7,100 2,181,050 3,158, 160 3,902,800
S DAK 500 442 623 920 -:1,069 © 920 °460,010 472,600 573, 160
TEX 58 28 240 810 «-1,182 «1,200 46,980 33,100 288,000
vs 3,683 3,81) 4,936.1,016 1,177-—-:1,103 3,741,640 4,487,410 5,446,460,

1/ REVISED.

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

12.5 15.0 1,563 1,300 1,650
12.5 14.0 2,900 4,250 6,860
13.0 2,249

Vv ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP.

PEANUTS FOR NUTS

AREA HARVESTED t YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE tenn ennnnnn wn nnn nnn nn eee nen = perenne een anncneee none: eecnwnvscesscceces: eeennceeene
3 3 3 IND 3 3 : IND
: 1980 19814 ¢ 1982 $ 1980 t 1961 $ 1982 ¢ 1989 1961 2 1982

: 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 41,000 POUNDS

ALA 3 222.0 177.0 1,325 2,715 2,950 265,000 602,730 522,150
FLA : 60.0 51.0 2,600 2,979 3,200 143,000 178,200 163,200
GA ' 565.0 485.0 1,935 2,930 3,100 994,590 1,655,450 1,503,500
MISS 1/2 6.7 1,250 1,900 7,500 12,730

N MEX 273 9.6 9.9 2,540 2,530 2,600 22,352 24,288 25,740
nC s 177.0 147.0 1,755 3,175 2,800 291,330 561,975 411,600
OKLA : 91,0 83.0 1,335 2,080 2,000 140,175 189,260 166,000
sc ' 15,0 12.0 1,100 2,600 2,450 14,300 39,000 29,400
TEX 3 242.0 1,275 1,625 1,425 293,250 393,250 313,500
vA t 1,285 3,150 2,950 12 6s 330,750 260,250

1,645 2,070 2,668 2,30

82 3,987,653 3,415

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1981 CROP.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARO FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTIONS ‘OCTOBER 1982 B-6 CROP REPORTENG BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION = (SU

Statistical Reporting
Released: Senvice
October 12, 1982
3:00 P.M. ET

US. Department
of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production is forecast at a record high 8.31 billion bushels
(21T “miltion metric tons), virtually unchanged from the September 1
forecast and 1 percent above the previous record high set last year. The
90 percent canfidence interval for this production is 7.77 ta 8.86 billion
bushels.

SORGHUM GRAIN production is forecast at 821 million bushels (20.9 million
metric tons), down 7 percent from 1981 but 42 percent more than the 1980
drought-stricken crop.

FEED GRAIN production (corn, sorghum, oats, and barley combined) is expected
~~to total 252 million metric tons, up 7 percent from 1981.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at 2.30 billion bushels (62.6 million metric
~—tons), fractionally less than last month but 15 percent above last year's
crop. The 90 percent confidence interval for this 1982 production
forecast is 2.16 to 2.44 billion bushels.

OILSEED production (soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, flaxseed and sunflowers
~~Combined) is expected to total 71.0 million metric tons, up 10 percent
from last year.

FOOD GRAIN production (wheat, rye and rice combined) is expected to total 84.1
——“miTtion tons, 1 percent below 1981.

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 11.4 million bales, 27 percent below 1981
Production but up 3 percent from the September 1 forecast. The 90 percent
Conf idence interval for this 1982 production forecast is 10.3 to 12.4
million bales.

FALL POTATO production is forecast at 307 million cwt (13.9 million metric
tons), 4 percent above 198] and 15 percent above 1980.

ORANGE production is forecast at 216 million boxes (8.33 million metric tons),
21 percent more than the 1981-82 season but 12 percent below 1980-81.

SUGAR CROPS: Sugarbeet production is expected to total 21.4 million tons

(19.4 million metric tons), down 2 percent from the September 1
forecast and 22 percent below the 198] crop. Production of sugarcane for
sugar and seed is forecast at a record high 28.9 million tons (26.2 million
metric tons), 1 percent below last month's forecast but 5 percent above the
1981 crop.

JESSIE I IIIS II IIIS C ISIS II TI ICO I TTI II II I TIO
* Requests for a subscription order form covering all? available reports *

* should be directed to Crop Reporting Board Publications, Room 5829 - *
* South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-4021). *

TESS O ITO III II II IIIT IIS II IO IIR TI TI ITI IOI IIS IS IIIA ITA IIA.

CrPr 2-2 (10-82) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


In the Southwest (Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico), peanut production is expected to total §05
million pounds, a decrease of 17 percent from the 607 million pounds produced in 1981. Acres
for harvest, at 313 thousand, are down 9 percent from a year ago. Yield prospects dropped 125
and 100 pounds per acre from last month in Texas and Oklahoma, respectively. The Texas yield is
set at 1425 pounds, compared with 1625 pounds last year. Hot, dry weather has delayed harvest.
Oklahoma's yield, at 2000 pounds, is 80 pounds below last year. Peanuts in Oklahoma are in need
of moisture in order to substain growth and development.

SUNFLOWERS: Production of a11 sunflowers is forecast at 5.45 billion pounds (2.47 million

metric tons), up 21 percent from 1981 and 46 percent above 1980. The 1982 acreage
for harvest, at 4.94 million acres (2.00 million hectares), is up 30 percent from last year.
The prospective yield, at 1103 pounds per aCre, is down 74 pounds from the 1981 average. Yields
are forecast at 1300 pounds per acre in Minnesota, 1100 pounds in North Dakota, 920 pounds in
South Dakota and 1200 in Texas. In North Dakota development of the crop continued slower than
average. Combining was just beginning on October 3. About 8 percent had been combined on this
date last year.

COTTON: Production in the United States is expected to total 11.4 million bales, 27 percent less

than 1981 production but up 3 percent from the September 3 forecast. Upland production
is forecast at 11.3 million bales, down 28 percent from last year. American-Pima production, at
103 thousand bales, is up 29 percent from 1981.

Acreage for harvest is estimated at 9.30 million acres (3.76 million hectares), 33 percent
less than last year. Average yield per harvested acre is forecast at a record high 587 pounds,
44 pounds above 1981.

Production in the Southeastern States--Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina--
is forecast at 756 thousand bales, down 10 percent from last year and 1 percent below the
September 1 forecast. Harvest was in full swing by October 1.

In the Delta States--Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee--growers expect
to harvest 3.50 million bales, 3 percent more than in 198) and 6 percent above Jast month's fore-
cast. Favorable maturing weather prevailed during September and bolls opened rapidly. Average
weight per boll is above average and gin out-turn is exceeding earlier expectations. Harvest is
in full swing and is about 1 week ahead of last year's pace in Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee,
but slightly behind the 1981 pace in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Upland production in Oklahoma and Texas is forecast at 2.66 million bales, down 56 percent
from last year but 1 percent above the September 1 forecast. September weather was generally
favorable for cotton, however, dry weather reduced yield prospects of some dry Tand acreage on
the Plains of Texas and Oklahoma. Insects continue to be a problem on late planted cotton.

In the Western States--Arizona, California and New Mexico--upland production is forecast at
4.33 million bales, down 17 percent from last year but 2 percent above the September 1 forecast.
Harvest was just beginning, about 1 week later than last year. Rains and cool temperatures
slowed cotton development in the San Joaquin Valley but yield prospects are good on most of the
acreage.

The Bureau of the Census reports 1,531,211 running bales ginned prior to October 1 compared
with 1,724,646 bales ginned to the same date jn 1981 and 1,312,026 bales ginned in 1980.

U.S. COTTON PRODUCTION

Wo Rave, 2382

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 3982 A-32 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


During September, yield prospects declined 1.0 bushel in Tennessee. Arkansas and Alabama
are anticipating a 1.0 bushel increase, while the remaining South Central States continued
unchanged from last month.

North Carolina and Maryland yields dropped 1.0 bushel from last month while other Atlantic
States showed no change.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

BILLION BIELS

a

FLAXSEED: Production of flaxseed is forecast at 11.7 million bushels (298 thousand metric tons),
up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast and 50 percent above 1981. Yield is fore-
cast at 14.1 bushels per acre compared with 13.8 bushels last month and 12.6 bushels last year.

Yield prospects in North Dakota increased 0.5 of a bushel per acre from September 1, while
ytelds in Minnesota and South Dakota remained unchanged. In North Dakota good weather during
September permitted harvest to move ahead of average pace. A September 15th freeze caused some
damage in a few western areas of the State. In South Dakota harvest was virtually complete by
the end of September.

PEANUTS: Peanut production is forecast at 3.42 billion pounds (1.55 million metric tons), 14

percent below the record high 3.99 billton pounds (1.81 million metric tons), produced
in 1981 but 48 percent above the drought-stricken crop on 1980. All peanut producing States
with the exception of New Mexico, show a substantial decrease from last year. This reduction is
mostly attributed to decreased acreage. Harvested acreage is estimated at 1.28 million acres
{518 thousand hectares), unchanged from September 1 but down 14 percent from 1981. Estimated
yield, at 2668 pounds per acre, is 9 pounds below last month and 2 pounds Jess than the record
high set last year. The comparisons in this report include Mississippi for 1981 but that State
was eliminated from the estimating program in 1982.

Production in the Southeast (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina) is estimated at 2.22
billion pounds, 117 percent below the 2.49 billion pounds produced last year. The 725 thousand
acres for harvest is 17 percent below 1981. Yield per acre, at 3060 pounds, is 196 pounds above
1981. Yield prospects in Alabama and Florida increased from last month and Alabama's yield, at
2950 pounds, will be a record high for the State. Yield prospects for Georgia, at 3100 pounds
per acre, are unchanged from last month but 170 pounds better than last year. Yield in South
Carolina at 2450 pounds, is the same as last month but 150 pounds less than a year ago. Harvest
progress is quite rapid in Georgia and is in full swing in the other three States.

The peanut crop in Virginia-North Carolina is forecast at 692 million pounds, 23 percent
below the 893 million pounds produced last year. Harvested acreage, at 242 thousand, is down 14
percent from last year. Yield in North Carolina is estimated at 2800 pounds per acre, unchanged
from last month but 375 pounds below last year. Virginia's estimated yield, at 2950 pounds per
acre, is a 200 pound drop from 1981, but yield prospects increased by 50 pounds from last
month. Digging #s about one-third complete in both States and condition of the crop is good.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 An CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL TOBACCO

1 :
1982 1980: 1981 1982 1980

8,300
234,600 236,400
50

25,000 26,000
1,140 500
2,800 2,900
373,700 323,050
13,100 13,800
13,300 13,000
69,000 58,000
78,650 81,700
73,340 63,370
1,500 1,600
13,400 10,700 2,013 1,946 1,925 25,965 26,071 20,598
975,680 901,420 1,940 2,114 2,144 1,786,192 2,062,375 1,932,848

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP. =SSO=C*~<“C~=“‘“‘S;CS*‘“<CS;<C;SS”!!
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1981 CROP.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUGARBEETS 1/

1980 : 1981 1980 = 1981

1,000 ACRES

ARIZ: 9.1 12.6 13.6 22.9
CALIF =: 229.0 © 260.0 170.0 25.7
colo: 8.0 77.0 19.0
1OAHO : == 137.9 23.9
KANS =: 14.5. 13.8
MICH 6: 97.0 19.5
MINN =: 243.0 14.9
MONT =: 43.3 20.3
NEBR: 85.0 20.9
N MEX 2/: 1.6 23.1
NDAK : (142.7 14.)
OHIO. =: (17.8 19.1
OREG : 1.2 27.6
TEX: 2M. 15.8
7 :
5.3
189.5

ST E. FOR
OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED BEETS IN CALIF,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AREA HARVESTED:

347.0 31.2 28.8 35.0 10,592 10,019 12,145
96.7 90.4 86.7 91.0 9,446 9,081 8,800
250.0 23.3 26.9 27.0 5,927 7,134 6,750
36.9 28.5 31.4 32.5 998 1,174 1,199
730.6 36.8 36.3 39.5 26,963 27,408 28,898

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


‘SEASONAL PRODUCTION
GROUP on
AND
STATE
— 1,000 ACRES ont 1,000 CNT
WINTER
TOTAL Ws W6 WO 205 189 206 2,363 2,198 2,263
SPRING
TOTAL 71.6 78.0 78.0 238 266 260 17,067 20,765 20,243
‘SUMMER
TOTAL 90.1 95.0 95.5 189 at 216 16,999 20,035 20,587
FALL
CALIF. 17.4 18.7 18.5 370 370 370 6,845
COLO 36.5 40.0 45.0 300 290 280 12,600
CONN 1.8 1.8 1.8 225 270 220 396
IDAHO-10 SW CO 23.0 24.0 25.0 340 335 330 8,250
-OTHER CO 277.0 306.0 317.0 260 250 260 82,420
IND 3.3 3.0 3.3 220 205 255 B42
MAINE 104.0 104.0 105.0 240 ro 235 24,675
MASS 3.4 3.3 3.6 220 225 220 792
MICH nS 30.0 34.0 235 235 250
MINN 64.0 70.0 68.0 155 190 180
MONT : 6.9 7.4 7.4 250 235 250
NEBR : 6.7 7.9 8.1 280 285 285
NEV : 13.0 12.0 13.0 340 290 ib
N Y-LONG IS : 18.8 18.5 18.5 255 290 260
UPSTATE t 25.0 25.0 27.0 250 275 265
N ODAK : 112.0 115.0 116.0 140 75 150
OHIO t 9.5 9.0 9.6 210 210 255
OREG-MALHEUR CO : 10.0 10.0 10.0 365 345, 370
“OTHER CO: 37.0 44.0 41.0 435 415 ato
PA : 22.0 21.0 25.0 190 250 255
RI 3 3.2 3.2 3.0 230 260 230
S DAK : 6:72 5410801601305, 1,550
UTAH : 5.2 5.8 5.8 225 220 225 1,305
NT : 6 a 6 220 210 126
WASH 87.0 108.0 10.0 505 490 500 55,000
WIS 8 50.0 53.5 63.5 340 355 22,543
WYO 5.7 5.3 §.2 235 200 20 1,196
TOTAL 981.2 1,052.5 1,094.8 272 281 280 © 266,428 295,593 306,897
us 1,154.4 1,237.1 1,279.3 262 274 274 = 302,857 338,591 349,990

V/ 1982 REVISED.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

WINTER POTATOES

"AREA HARVESTED

1982 1/ °

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 Be12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Temperatures were favorable in Oklahoma for planting, but dry weather held back seedings.
By October 3, planting reached 35 percent, behind the average progress of 40 percent.

Scattered showers at the end of September provided necessary moisture for recently seeded
fields across the High Plains of Texas. However, dryness continued to delay seeding operations
in some areas. On the Low Plains, emerged wheat showed signs of moisture stress.

Wet weather during the last half of September delayed fieldwork in Montana. Winter wheat
seeding advanced slowly, reaching 65 percent complete by October 3. Normally 85 percent is
seeded by this date. Germination was generally good.

In the Pacific Northwest, seeding generally progressed on schedule. Some reseeding was
necessary due to water erosion and crusting.

Seeding was behind schedule in the Corn Belt. Limited rainfall at the end of the month was
not enough to replenish moisture supplies. Additional rainfall would be helpful for emergence
of newly-seeded wheat.

SEPTEMBER ROW CROP_SUMMARY

Corn and soybeans were in good to excellent condition in most of the Corn Belt and Southeast
and fair to mostly good condition in other producing areas as September began. Crop development
lagged in the western Corn Belt due to Jate plantings, but was ahead of usual in the eastern
area. During September, adequate rainfall and near normal temperatures in the western Corn Belt
permitted crops to develop at the usual pace, but development continued later than average. In
the eastern Corn Belt, temperatures were Cooler than normal and dry weather stressed crops in a
few areas. Freezing temperatures plunged southward at mid-month into the northern Plains and
Great Lakes area. However, damage to crops was minor.

Corn was 79 percent mature by October 3. Only 30 percent of the corn in Nebraska was
mature, 55 percentage points behind the average. Development lagged by 20 points in both lowa
and Wisconsin and 12 points in Minnesota. Harvest advanced to 12 percent in the 17 major
producing States. Average for the date is 18 percent. Combining was active in all major States
except Pennsylvania, with progress ranging from 1 percent complete in Nebraska and Wisconsin to
94 percent finished in Georgia.

Leaves were dropping on 67 percent of the soybean acreage by October 3, only 1 point behind
a year ago. Harvesting was 15 percent complete, slightly later than 1981 and average. Progress
was behind normal in 9 of the 18 major States. Harvest was active in all States except North
Carolina, with progress ranging from 1 percent complete in South Carolina to 44 percent finished
in I1linois.

, Cotton was in fair to mostly good condition. By October 3, bolls were opening on 67 percent
of the acreage. Seventeen percent of the acreage had been harvested, equal to the average
progress for this date. Harvest was active in all States except New Mexico and Oklahoma.

One half of the sorghum acreage was mature on October 3--the average is 74 percent. In
Nebraska, only 10 percent was mature, compared with an average of 80 percent. Harvest was 29
percent finished, lagging the average of 37 percent. Harvest was active in al] major States
except Colorado and Nebraska.

Rice was 65 percent harvested by October 3, only 1 point behind average. Progress ranged
from 5 percent complete in California to 100 percent in Texas.

CORN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at a record high 8.31 billion bushels (211 mil-
lion metric tons), down fractionally from last month but 1 percent above the previous re~
cord high set last year.

Yield per acre in the U.S. is forecast at a record high 114.2 bushels, up 0.3 bushel from
last month's yield and 4.3 bushels greater than last year. Of the major producing States, yields
are at record high levels in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska and South Dakota. Acreage for
harvest is off slightly from last month's forecast.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL WHEAT wv

ewe ween mewn e wen ene ewe ewe wee e eens cen w sen e wee neces nn ew eee enn cenenaneenenenseeennenscensconces:

cy AREA HARVESTED t YIELD ' PRODUCTION

STATE Sew wenwemwneneme nn ncn rere cew ene w nen nen anne ncmnene enn enee seen eeeene enn ecscnswetenncenee
: 3 IND : 3 IND t : ry IND
3 1980 ¢ 1981 ¢ 1982 3 1980 % 1981 % 1982 8 1980 3 1981 2 1982

’ 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
t

ALA z 260 S65 44.0 6,630 24,860 27,200
ARIZ ’ 215 258 84,7 17,200 21,844 12,486
ARK : 865 1,650 41.0 32,870 67,650 66,640
CALIF ¢ 1,150 1,365 78.5 85,500 107,085 81,625
coo s 3,400 26.2 110,300 87,394 86,925
DEL 27 40.0 1,080 1,720 2,107
GA : 600 43,0 19,800 46,010 47,360
ToaHo 1,550 59.5 96,030 89,780 93,040
To t 1,570 $0.0 15,360 92,500 66,150
IND t 1,100 46.0 53,900 62,100 45,360
TOWA : 92 39.0 3,496 4,485 3,800
KANS 12,000 25,0 420,000 305,000 462,000
xy t 350 42,0 13,625 26,560 260,325
LA : 67 42.0 1,876 11,550 20,500
MO 3 97 41.0 3,686 5,617 5,796
MICH t 800 50.0 35,200 41,500 25,600
WINN ' 3,169 3949 102,556 144,025 123,840
MISS : 300 40,0 94300 24,000 39,900
Mo : 2,070 42.0 34.0 89,010 115,500 74,800
Mont : 5,100 29.7 35.6 119/800 172,830 192,640
NEBR t 2,850 36,0 108,300 106,200 103,250
NEV 3 29 59.7 1,800 1,850 1,890
nd t 43 42.0 1,849 2,352 2,279
N MEX 3 S00 18,0 10,500 9,000 12,650
ny : 150 44.0 40,0 6,000 7,040 3,200
nC 3 300 39,0 36,0 10,500 154990 17,280
N DAK ¢ 9,620 11,690 28.4 32,2 179,650 331,700 340,070
OHIO z 1,370 1,650 44.0 43.0 67,130 72,600 53,750
OKLA 3 6,500 67400 27,0 33.0 195,000 172,800 227,700
OREG : 1,350 1,310 S9et 53.8 77,400 17,380 64,500
: 270 36,0 35.0 9,250 9,720 7,980
410 35.0 36,0 6912 14,350 21,600
3,620 23.3 28,1 62,425 88,970 99,480
850 44.0 37.0 17,100 37,400 34,965
6,550 28.0 24,0 130,000 163,400 144,000
257 34,5 32.6 8,942 8,856 8,220

44,0 35.0 10,562 17,160 13,650
55.2 46.0 160,220 168,350 130,680

36.0 35.0 342 360 315
45,6 96.0 4,365 5,518 5,746
29,7 24,3 8,620 8,430 7/213
34.5 3 2,374,306 2,793,436 2,810,512

1/ INCLUDES WINTER WHEAT ESTIMATES FROM SEPTEMBER CROP
PRODUCTION REPORT,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX

=
[ay
im

|

APPLES wascsccscccecccccerseceecesceetes tame eens e ns cecereeseseens
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE . . .
CITRUS FRUITS....
CORN FOR GRAIN
COTTON ...ceeeeee
COTTONSEED
FILBERTS ...
FLAXSEED .
GRAPES .
HAY, ALL settee svecees os
HAY, ALFALFA & ALFALFA MIXTURES

7
ey

oore)etrreed
= os

'
pee

HOPS
PAPAYAS Pereeeeere o
PASTURE AND RANGE F CONDITION ....+-.00-
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAPS ooeee
PEANUTS FOR NUTS ....ceseeeneercerene
PECANS .cscesceseee see .
POTATOES ..csceecrececesees face ees ece cece eeeteneecvese
POTATOES, VARIETIES GROWN . . .

PRUNES AND PLUMS .».....

RICE ..sseee Ererry)
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN .
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

petarte
ee

SUGARBEETS ....... seeseee al
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED -1
SUNFLOWERS . -

SWEETPOTATOES ...++ +>. .
TOBACCO BY STATES . veseee
US SUMMARY .....0. .

WHEAT, ALL ....e.e5
WHEAT, BY CLASSES .
WHEAT, DURUM ......
WHEAT, SPRING ........

DODD SDOTVVOTTVOVD ID STTTDVODBDNDODW DDD
PENWWWUIHDWWONN TON DADE ODROWDYRD YIN HO ID

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1982-380-929:SRS-775

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-20 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250
ee

OFFICIAL BUSINESS
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300

Te stop mating (Cor to change your
ederess [) send this sheet with lade!
tact, showing new sddregs, to Crop
Reporting Boarg Pubiicstions. SRS. U.S.
Dept. of Agricutuse, Me 5829 South
Bulding, 141 & independence Ave. 8.W.,
Wash, 0.6. 20260.

POSTAGE ANC FEES PAID
US. OLPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE
AGR 101

FIRST CLASS


ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY

AREA HARVESTED

1,000 TONS

165 160 160 7.00 7.00 7.50 1,155 1,120 1,200
78 80 70 1.60 2.45 = 2.60 125 196 182
1,030 1,050 960 6.40 6.30 6.45 6,592 6,615 6,192
780 770 770 «3.00 «3.00 2.90 2,340 2,310 2,233
21 22 23 «2.55 «= 2.60 2.60 54 57 60

7 7 7 3.05 3.80 3.70 21 27 26
1,090 1,100 1,090 3.50 3.50 3.60 3,815 3,850 3,924
720 705 680 3.75 3.70 3.90 2,700 2,609 2,652
380 375 390 3.35 3.50 3.70 1,273 1,313 1,443
1,760 1,750 3,740 3.90 4.00 4.20 6,864 7,000 7,308
975 1,000 1,000 2.85 3.60 3.70 2,779 3,600 3,700
200 200 210 2.95 3.60 = 3.80 590 720 798
13 13 10 2.40 «2.40 2.50 31 31 25

22 21 21 2.05 2.45 2.50 45 5] 53
70 63 70 3.10 3.50 3.70 217 221 259
27 28 29 2.40 «2.80 = 3.00 65 78 87
1,020 1,000 950 3.20 3.30 3.70 3,264 3,300 3,515
2,100 2,000 1,950 2.70 3.20 3.20 5,670 6,400 6,240
520 550 530 2.25 3.00 2.85 1,170 1,650 1,511
1,200 1,300 1,300 2.35 2.60 = -2.70 2,820 3,380 3,510
1,650 1,650 1,650 3.05 3.10 3.45 5,033 5,115 5,693
215 210 215 3.50 3.55 3.50 753 746 753
20 20 18 2.25 «2.50 2.60 45 50 47

4 40 42 3.00 3.40 3.60 123 136 151
240 240 250 4.30 4.70 = 4.60 1,032 1,128 1,150
1,030 990 975 2.90 2.70 2.80 2,987 2,673 2,730
25 27 352.25 2.40 2.50 56 65 88
1,220 1,600 1,700 0.95 1.60 2.00 1,159 2,560 3,400
540 460 550 3.10 3.15 3.30 1,674 1,449 1,815
420 390 370 2.50 «2.90 2.80 1,050 1,131 1,036
425 425 430 4.20 4.10 4.20 1,785 1,743 1,806
840 830 860 2.60 2.90 2.90 2,184 2,407 2,494

3 3 2 2.10 2.45 2.60 6 7 5
2,300 2,370 2,450 1.40 1.50 2.75 3,220 3,555 6,738
105 15 120. 2.40 2.50 2.50 252 288 300
170 180 200 4.50 4.80 4.80 765 864 960
470 475 475 3.90 4.10 4.00 1,833 1,948 1,900
110 105 100 2.25. 2.75 2..40 248 289 240
87 100 95 2.50 2.40 2.90 218 240 276
505 500 475. 3,70 «3.70 3.80 1,869 1,850 1,805
80 80 90 2.55 2.45 2.50 204 196 225
3,050 2,850 2,925 3.50 3.30 3.60 10,675 9,405 10,530
520 540 5502.15 2.45 2.75 1,118 1,323 1,513
26,244 26,394 +=. 26,537 3,04 «3.17 3.41 79,879 = 83,696 += 90,573

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 8-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(werric UNITS}

HECTARES METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 199 590 29 470 740 6,90 77 208 313 750 211 304 150 211 209 150
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 554 770 5 583 100 = 4,03 3.74 22 359 790 20 810 850 20 855 250
ALL WHEAT 758 840 31] 955 940 2.32 2.39 76 024 870 76 625 560 76 489 600
OURUM 328 990 1 726 810 2.17 2.38 5 060 460 4015 240 4 106 250
OTHER SPRING 719 470 6 555 570 2.06 2.30 13 846 640 15 290 340 15 063 370
RICE 939 440 | 329 810 $.46 5.34 8 408 240 7 161 680 7 095 000
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/ 858 470 28 700 610 2.03 2.18 54 435 030 62 973 490 62 605 130
FLAXSEED 249 690 335 890 0.79 0.89 198 100 291 730 297 960
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 604 320 517 960 2.99 2.99 1 808 760 1 554 060 1 549 160
SUNFLOWERS 1/ 542 270 1 997 550 1.32 1,24 2 035 440 2 470 460
ALL COTTON 601 390 3 762 770 0.61 0.66 3 406 430 2 401 230 2 474 $10
UPLAND 577 920 3 733 3500.61 0.66 3 389 100 2 381 350 2 452 110
AMER-PIMA 2 23 470 29 420 0.74 0.76 17 330 19 880 22 400
COTTONSEED t 5 803 260 3 982 540 4 101 380
ALL HAY : 24 367 200 24 492 240 5.33 5.65 129 822 670 2/137 486 570 138 322 080
ALFALFA : 10 681 390 10 739 260 7.1 7.65 75 927 730 2/82 136 510 82 166 440
ALL OTHER : 13 685 810 13 752 980 3.94 4.08 53 894 940 2/55 350 060 56 155 640
ORY EDIBLE BEANS : 890 720 743 010 1,62 1,56 1 443 050 1179 520 1161 280
POTATOES :
FALL z 425 940 443 050 31.48 31.42 13 407 800 13 920 540
TOTAL 3 500 640 517 720 30.68 30.66 15 358 150 15 875 200
SWEETPOTATOES, + 44 230 46,260 13,08 14.30 578 420 648 320 661 290
TOBACCO 2 394 860 364 790 2.37 2.40 935 470 872 920 876 720
SUGARBEETS z 497 400 422 540 49.99 45.91 24 864 120 19 734 900 19 399 240
SUGARCANE FOR t
a AND SEED : 305 700 295 670 81.34 88,65 24 864 120 26 452 600 26 212 200
HOPS 17 440 16 030 2.06 2.24 35 900 35 770 35 840
ett COM'L : 3512 420 2/3 893 480 3 836 100
: 4 043 870 5 061 730 5 152 450
Seer CHERRIES 3/ : 138 800 144 060
TART CHERRIES 3/ : 61 050 141 020
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) 61 780 51 530 52 620
PECANS: 153 310 94 170 95 530
FILBERTS 13 340 15 420 15 420
CITRUS FRUITS 4/ 1981-82 1982-83 1982-83

ORANGES 6 & 333-400
LEMONS 854 570 982 480

1/1981 REVISED. 2/ AUG 1, 1982. 3/ CARRIED FORWARD FROM CHERRY UTILIZATION REPORT RELEASED OCT 4, 1982,
4/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE
FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED

INDICATED
1982 14

INDICATED
1982 1/

INDICATED
1982 1/

OATS : 3 808 540 4 200 280 1.94 2.07 7 374 800 8 694 580
BARLEY : 3 703 320 3 719 510 2.81 3.02 10 413 780 11 238 750
WINTER WHEAT : 23.710 380 23 673 560 2.41 2.42 $7 117 770 57 319 980
RYE : 282 070 283 280 1,68 1.79 473 000 506 090
POTATOES 3

WINTER 2/ z 4 69 4 450 21.26 23.07 99 700 102 650

SPRING : 31 570 31 570 29.83 29.08 941 880 918 200

‘SUMMER 38 450 38 650 23.64 24.16 908 770 933 810
PEACHES : 1 264 880 1 006 470
PEARS 2 809 120 710 690
APRICOTS 2 81 100 92 900
NECTARINES (CALIF) : 165 110 136 089
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) : 144 240 V7 930
PLUMS (CALIF) : 179 170 113 400
OLIVES (CALIF) 39 010 97 070
ALMONDS (CALIF) 184 610 165 560
WALNUTS (CALIF) 204 120 199 580

VES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1982 REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 Ad CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


The increase from last month's yield is attributed mostly to improved prospects in
California and North Carolina. The North Carolina crop is forecast at a record high 5.74
million cwt, 23 percent above last year. By the end of October approximately two-thirds of the
crop had been harvested. This compares with 45 percent harvested at this time a year ago.
Currently, the crop is rated in mostly good condition. Production in Louisiana is estimated at
2.84 million cwt, unchanged from last month but 9 percent above last year. Harvest is
progressing at a normal pace with 66 percent of the crop harvested at the end of September.

The California crop is forecast at 1.75 million cwt, 3 percent above last month and 6
Percent more than last year. Harvest is underway and quality is reported as good. Production
in Texas at 792 thousand cwt, is unchanged from Jast month but 7 percent above last year.
Harvest is later than normal because of dry weather and low prices.

ALL TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 1.93 billion pounds (877 thousand metric

tons), 6 percent below 198] but 8 percent above 1980. The October 1 forecast is
up fractionally from September 1. Increases in yield from last month in Indiana, Kentucky,
Ohio, South Carolina and Tennessee more than offset yield declines in Connecticut, Georgia,
Massachusetts and a reduction in acres harvested in Georgia. Yield per acre, at 2144 pounds, is
a new record high. Average yield per acre is up 13 pounds from September 1 and is 30 pounds
above 1981.

Kentucky's production of all tobacco is expected to total 567 million pounds, 11 percent
above 1981 and up 1 percent from September 1. Yield per acre, at 2400 pounds, is 25 pounds
better than last month and 228 pounds higher than in 1981. The burley and dark tobacco crops
continue to look good. Late August and early September rains permitted late maturing tobacco to
add weight and density prior to harvest. As of October 3, about 5 percent of the tobacco
remained to be harvested. Fifteen percent of the burley was reported cured and ready for
stripping. . .

North Carolina production of all tobacco is estimated at 678 million pounds compared with
796 million produced in 1981. This represents a 15 percent drop in production from last year
but is the same as last month. Growers expect yields to average 2100 pounds per acre, 30 pounds
less than in 1981. Marketing of flue-cured tobacco and the harvest of burley were the main
activities during September. Burley harvest was nearing completion as the month ended.

Tennessee growers expect to harvest 172 million pounds of tobacco, 6 percent more than in
1981 and 2 percent above last month's forecast. Average yield per acre, at 2100 pounds, is up
50 pounds from last month. Last year's crop averaged 2053 pounds per acre. Harvest during
early September was hampered by rain but drier weather the latter half of the month enabled
farmers to nearly complete harvest. About 15 percent of the burley crop had been stripped by
October 3.

SUGARBEETS: Production of sugarbeets is forecast at 21.4 million tons (19.4 million metric

tons), down 2 percent from the September 1 forecast and 22 percent less than the
1981 crop. The decline from last month is the result of lower yields in Minnesota and North
Dakota. Freezing temperatures occurred in Minnesota, in late August and several times in
September. The lowest temperatures were in the northwest.

California's San Joaquin Valtey harvest continues with good yields reported. Fall harvest
in the coastal and northern areas has started. A short fall campaign is expected due to the
late spring plantings. As a result, a good percentage of the crop will be overwintered.
Planting of next year’s crop in the Imperial Valley is nearly complete.

Digging is just starting in Idaho where moisture supplies are more than adequate. September
temperatures averaged below normal.

North Dakota growers began harvesting on a controlled basis in early September but
stockpiling did not begin until October 4. Through October 3, 18 percent of the acreage was
lifted compared with 12 last year and the average of 11 percent.

Recent rains in Michigan may improve yields if temperatures are favorable. Some digging
started in last September but no stockpiling is expected until mid-October.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Prospects in the Western States declined 3 percent from August 1, but the 3.88 billion
pounds expected is 2 percent above the 1981 harvest. Although fruit size and quality are
generally good, the Washington apple crop did not size as expected and the estimate was lowered
100 million pounds to 3.00 billion pounds. Harvest began in early September. In California,
harvest continued in the Sebastopol] and Watsonville areas. Worm and insect damage has lowered
the quality of fruit. Fruit size was reduced in orchards not thinned or pruned property. An
excellent apple crop is expected in the San Joaquin Valley. . Apple picking is underway in Oregon
where good size and color are reported.

GRAPES: The final forecast for the U.S. grape crop is a record high 5.68 million tons (5.15
million metric tons), 2 percent more than last month's estimate and 27 percent greater
than last year's crop. If realized, the 1982 crop will be 2 percent above the previous record
high production set in 1980.

Prospects in California, at 5.20 million tons, are up 2 percent from last month and 30
percent above last year. The California raisin variety grape forecast remains at 2.50 million
tons, 41 percent above 1981 but 7 percent below 1980 production. Weather conditions this year
have made crop size assessment very difficult. Rain fell on September 25 as about two-thirds of
the raisin crop laid on open trays in the vineyards. Clear weather the last week of the month
allowed growers to move trays out of wet spots. Much of the damaged raisin crop will be
salvaged. Harvest of raisin type grapes for fresh market was virtually complete by the 25th.
Movement of grapes to wineries for crushing was at a peak. Reports indicate that raisin grapes
delivered for wine were beginning to show some mold damage. Total crop loss is stil? unknown at
this time.

The California wine variety grape forecast is at a record high 2.20 million tons, 23 percent
above last year and 10 percent above the previous record high crop produced in 1980. Yield is
also forecast at a record level of 7.70 tons per bearing acre. Rains drenched California the
latter half of September. The North Coast region was especially hard hit from two different
storms and received some hail damage. Harvest was well underway but was temporarily halted in
some locations. High humidity accompanied the rains and have caused mold and bunch rot to
develop, especially in thin skinned varieties such as Chenin Blanc and White Reisling. Other
varieties such as Zinfandel, French Colombard and Carignane, are also beginning to break down.
Vineyard operators are picking selectively and are delivering grapes as soon as minimum sugar
levels are reached to limit further damage. Assessment of the overall damage to the crop is
continuing. In spite of weather related problems, record yields are being recorded and record
tonnages are being delivered for crushing.

The California table variety grape forecast is 500 thousand tons, unchanged from last month
but 19 percent above 1981. September 25th, rain stopped the table grape harvest. In the
Lodi area, the harvest of Tokays for fresh market was virtually ended for the season. Tokays
diverted from fresh usage were being sent to wineries. Ribier grapes, grown primarily in the
southern San Joaquin Valley, also suffered from the rains. Extent of the damage is still
unknown. Emperor, the largest fall variety, appears to have escaped damage.

The Michigan grape forecast continues at 55.0 thousand tons, 4 percent more than 1981.
Harvest of Concords is in full swing.

The New York grape forecast continues at 166 thousand tons, 11 percent above last year but 5
percent less than 1980. Niagaras, Auroras and Concords are being picked. Average to above
average size and quality is being reported.

The forecast in Pennsylvania remains at 55.00 thousand tons, 10 percent below last year and
2 percent Jess than 1980. Harvest started the last week of September but wet weather has slowed
progress. Sugar content has been tow thus far.

The Washington grape crop forecast continues at 157 thousand tons, 1 percent below last
year. Picking of Concords is underway and quality is good. Harvest of some wine varieties will
continue into early November.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is

forecast at 58.0 thousand tons (52.6 thousand metric tons). ‘This last
forecast of the season is up 2 percent from the previous month but is 15 percent less than last
year's crop.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED

CROP AND UNIT INDICATED
1,000 ACRES

74,624 72,823 109.9 114.2 8,200,951 8,318,678 8,314,938
13,726 13,796 64.1 59.5 880,266 819,287 821,035

CORN FOR GRAIN
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

ALL WHEAT 80,948 78,964 34.5 35.6 2,793,436 2,815,508 2,810,512
DURUM 5,755 4,267 32.3 35.4 185,940 147,535 150,879
OTHER SPRING « 16,604 16,199 30.6 34.2 508,777 561,824 553,484

RICE CWT VY 3,804.0 3,286.0 4,873 4,760 185,370 157,888 156,418

SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 2/ BU 66,368 70,920 30.1 32.4 2,000,145 2,313,880 2,300,345

FLAXSEED . 617 830 12.6 14,1 7,799 11,485 11,730

PEANUTS FOR NUTS LB 1,493.3 1,279.9 2,670 2,668 3,987,653 3,426,140 3,415,340

SUNFLOWERS 2/ “ 3,811 4,936 1,177 1,103 4,487,410 5,446,460

ALL COTTON BALE 1 3,841.2 9,297.9 543 587 15,645.7 11,028.8 11,365.4
‘UPLAND * 13,783.2 9,225.2 542 586 15,566.17 10,937.5 11,262.5,
AMER-PIMA * 58.0 72.7 659 679 79.6 91.3 102.9

COTTONSEED TON 6,397 4,390 4,521

ALL HAY . 60,212 60,521 2.38 2.52 143,105 3/151,553 152,474
ALFALFA ” 26,394 26,537 3.17 3.41 83,696 3/90,540 90,573
ALL OTHER ° 33,818 33,984 1.76 1.82 59,409 3/61,013 61,901

DRY EOIBLE BEANS CWT 1 2,201.0 1,836.0 1,445 1,394 31,814 26,004 25,602

POTATOES
FALL CHT 1,052.5 1,094.8 281 280 295,593 306,897
TOTAL . 1,237.1 1,279.3 274 274 338,591 349,990

SWEETPOTATOES . 109.3 114,3 V7 128 12,752 14,293 14,579

TOBACCO LB 975.7 901.4 2n4 2,144 2,062,375 1,924,473 1,932,848

SUGARBEETS TON 1,229.1 1,044.7 22.3 20.5 27,408 21,754 21,384

SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED “ : 755.4 730.6 36.3 39.5 27,408 29,159 28,894

HOPS LB 43.1 39.6 1,836 1,996 79,144 78,862 79,022

PASTURE AND RANGE 4/ PCT 80 81

APPLES, COM'L LB 7,743,600 3/8,583,700 8,457,200

GRAPES TON 4,457.6 5,579.6 5,679.6

SWEET CHERRIES 5/ “ 153.0 158.8

TART CHERRIES §/ LB 134,600 310,900

PRUNES AND PLUMS
(EXCL CALIF) TON 68.1 56.8 58.0

PECANS LB 339,100 207,600 210,600

FILBERTS TON 4.7 17.0 17.0

CITRUS FRUITS 6/ 1981-82 1982-83
ORANGES. BOX 77,790 215,500

TM 24,800 28,500

1/_ YIELD IN POUNDS. 2 1981 REVISED. 3/ AUG 1, 1982. 4/ PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH,
THE 1971-80 AVERAGE IS 76 PERCENT. 5/ CARRIED FORWARD FROM CHERRY UTILIZATION REPORT RELEASED OCT 4, 1982.
6/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

CROP AND UNIT INDICATED INDICATED: INDICATED
1982 1/ 1982 1/ = 1982 1/
OATS bu 57.7 508,083,
BARLEY « 56.2 478,301
WINTER WHEAT . 36.0 2,098,719
RYE “ 28.5 18,621
POTATOES
WINTER 2/ CHT 206 2,198
SPRING . 260 20,765
SUMMER * 216 20,035
PEACHES LB 2,788,600
PEARS TON 891.9
APRICOTS " 89.4
NECTARINES (CALIF) ” 182.0
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) ="
PLUMS (CALIF) "
OLIVES (CALIF) ”
ALMONDS (CALIF) LB
WALNUTS (CALIF) TON

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1982 REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS,: USOA


POTATOES: VARIETIES GROWN - 1982

The Crop Reporting Service conducts potato objective yield surveys in 11 major fall producing
States. These 11 States accounted for 93 percent of the 1981 U.S. fall potato production. All produc-
ing areas of each State are represented in the sample in proportion to planted acreage of potatoes.
Variety information in the table below is derived from data reported for farms in the objective yield
sample. These data are intended to provide current information on varieties and are not designated as
official estimates of the Crop Reporting Board.

FALL POTATOES: PERCENT OF MAJOR VARIETIES PLANTED,
SELECTED STATES, 1982 CROP 1/

:CENTENNIAL USEET BURBANK

RED McCLURE

IDAHO :RUSSET BURBANK 3 :

MAINE SUPERIOR USSET BURBANK :KATAHDIN

MICH :RUSSET BURBANK J]ONA :KATAHDIN if
MINN :RUSSET BURBANK :KENNEBEC 16.
NY SUPERIOR : CHIPPEWA -
N OAK :NORCHIP RUSSET BURBANK

OREG :RUSSET BURBANK :NORGOLD RUSSET

PA :KATAHDIN : SUPERIOR

WASH sRUSSET BURBANK :

RUSSET BURBANK

1/ REPORTED BY FARMS SELECTED FOR OBJECTIVE YIELO SAMPLING.

FALL POTATOES - PERCENT HARVESTED TO OCTOBER 1, 1981-1982

HARVESTED
TO OCT 1

HARVESTED
TO OCT 3

PERCENT PERCENT

CALIF 76 74
cOLo 50 70
CONN 33 30
TDAHO 60 75
IND : 56 75
MAINE 66 50
MASS 50 30
MICH 75 75
MINN 50 40
MONT 84 78
NEBR 38 65
NEV

NY = LONG ISLAND AVERAGE

~ UPSTATE

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-19 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


coTtun

crop AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO PRODUCTION 1/
AND feweemmmenemenemmrenernmereneenseesensnmenneceenasen
STATE 3 z INO ¢ t t IND

2 1960 % 1981 ¢ tg62 2 1980 1981 2 1982

: 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 2/
COTTON, UPLAND .

: 2160 372.0 300.0 ait 545 $70 275.0 422.0
ARIZ 3 549.0 599.0 499.0 15184 «8,247 14178 = 1,354.0 = 1, 556,0
ARK t 645.0 $60.0 425.0 330 $18 56S 444.0 609.0
CALIF 8 £458000 = 1453000 © te 37000 969 4109 = 1,069 = 3410940 © 553540
FLA 378 $.9 17.0 15,0 610 601 640 7.5 21.3 20,0
GA : 160.0 175.6 175.0 ase 436 Su7 86.0 159.0 165.0
LA : 560.0 695,0 605.0 594 si2 674 960.0 742,0 850.0
MISS t 4,125.0 1,200.0 1,050.0 488 626 777° -14143,0 1,565.0 1,700.0
“oO : 241.6 18360 165.0 393 aa. 509 177.0 168.0 175.0
NEV 3/8 2 29 9 640 800 640 1.2 1,5 1,2
N MEX 6 120.0 106.0 65.0 426 692 sot 107,90 133.0 60.0
nc t 65.0 82.0 72.0 3a 558 S67 52.0 95.0 85,0
OKLA r 565.0 640.6 440.0 124 330 264 205.0 440,0 260,0
sc t 120.0 116.0 103.0 309 667 606 77,0 164,0 130.0
TENN z 275.0 305.0 250.0 349 496 518 200.0 315.0 270,0
TEX 3 6,850.0 7,200.0 3,700.0 233 376 341 -34320,0 5,645.0 2,800.0
va Bet 3 3 3 320 480 480 22 . 3
us 2 U3,143.1 15,783.2 F% 225.2 aye sae $66 11,017,9 15,566,1 11,262,5
COTTON, AMERSPIMA
ti Get 33.6 43.9 Raa 767 830 72,3 53.7 75.9
CALIF 3/3 al 0 7) 480 Co) 0 ol “0 20
N MEX 7.0 6.8 9.3 464 558 ais 6,8 7.9 8.0
TEX + 22,5 17.6 19.5 S33 ama 468 25,0 18,0 19,0
us ’ M167 58.0 12.7 698 659 679 104,2 79.6 102.9
COTTON, ALL
ALA t 321,0 372.0 300.0 au 545 S70 275.0
ARIZ t So1et 632.6 $32.9 1,138 Veer 1,149 1,426.3
ARK t 645.0 $60.0 428.0 330 528 565 494.0
CALIF & 1,540.1 1,530.0 1,370.0 969 1,109 = 1,069 = 3,109.1
FLA 3/8 5.9 17.0 15.0 610 6oL 640 75
6A ry 160,0 175.0 175.0 258 436 $07 86,0
uA t 560.0 695.0 605.0 394 S12 674 460,0
Miss 4 4,125.0 1,200.0 1,050.0 498 626 777) 14143,0
Mo t 241.0 143.0 165.0 353 4a. 509 177,0
NEy 3/8 9 oo 09 690 800 640
NMEX 127.0 112.8 74,3 430 600 509
nc : 65.0 82.0 7240 381 $56 567 .
OKLA : 565.0 640.0 440.0 17a 330 264 205.0
3c ' 120,0 116.0 103.0 309 667 606 77,0
TENN % 275.0 305.0 250.0 349 a96 518 200.0
TEX 8 6,872.5 7421766 3471965 234 377 312 34345.0

’ 3 3 480 480

+

1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED,
2/ 480-L6, NEY WEIGHT BALES,
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

COTTONSEED

PRODUCTION

IND 1982

1,000 TONS
6,397

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1972-82 (1977=100)

PRODUCTION

FOOD

1/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National est imates with related information
on selected agricultural commodities. These data were prepared and adopted by the Crop Re-
porting Board which consists of commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington
headquarters.

CROP REPORTING BOARD;
W. H. Walther, Chairperson,

G. L. Clampet, Secretary,

APPROVED: D. W. Barrowman, R. L. Schulte,
D. M. Skow, R. P. Small,

G. R. Knight, R. L. Addison,

M. A. Anderson, W. R. Blackson,

W. T. Brannen, J. €. Brewster,
tA in J. S. Buche, A. R. Budge,
. ‘ T. J. Byram, C. F. Scott,
Nv D. A. Hasslen, C.D. James,
D. C. Johnson, G. A. Nelson,
L. H. Pope, D. £. Ransom,

L. D. Rives, L. S. Williams.

S. 0. Wilson.
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


3
CROP oY

sINOICATED?

AND :

CITRUS FRUIT

PROOUCTION
BOXES

TOTAL

Vv

PRODUCTION
TON EQUIVALENT

TOTAL

SINDICATED

t= aoe ond te- mee: weed
STATE $ 1980081 & 1961082 3 1962083 & 1980081 & 1981082 & 1982083
3 4/000 UNITS a7 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES,EARLY MID & NAVEL 3/3
ARIZ 3 900 900 950 34 34 36
CALIF t 38,750 27,000 37,000 1,453 1,013 1,388
FLA s 105,600 74,000 72,900 4,752 3,330 3,240
TEX t 2,600 3,610 3,800 1t0 153 - 162
us $ 147,850 105,510 113,750 6,349 4,530 4,826
ORANGES, VALENCIA : :
ARIZ : 1,700 2,150 2,350 64 80 88
CALIF 2 26,500 16,000 26,000 994 600 . 975
FLA t 66,800 51,800 71,000 3,006 2,331 3,195
TEX 2 1,730 2,330 2,400 74 99 102
us 3 96,730 729280 101,750 4,138 3,110 4,360
ALL ORANGES 2
ARIZ : 3,050 98 114 124
CALIF 2 2,447 1,613 2,363
FLA : 7,758 5.661 6,435
TEX 3 164 2s2 264
us 10,487 7,640 9,186
TEMPLES :
FLA 2 3,600 3,200 162 144 207
GRAPEFRUIT,WHITE SEEDLESS 2
FLA 2 26,400 27,300 1,207 1,160 4,062
GRAPEFRUIT, PINK SEEODLESS :
FLA 2 14,600 14,800 621 629 353
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT 3
FLA 2 7,300 6,000 6,000 310 255 255
ALL GRAPEFRUIT :
ARIZ : 2,800 2,400 2600 90 7 83
CALIF ars
DESERT : 3,900 136 109 125
OTHER AREAS 3 127 107
TOTAL : 7610 263 216
FLA % 48,100 44,000 2,138 2,044 1,870.
TEX 3 13,900 13,500 268 556 540
us : 71,010 2,759 2,893
TANGERINES $
ARIZ 3 750 700 26 28 26
CALIF : 12730 2,000 70 65 7S
FLA z 2,500 3,200 143 119 152
us t 4,980 5,900 a39 212 253
LEMONS 2
ARIZ 3 7,000 64300 7,700 266 239 293
CALIF $24,300 «18,500 =—-20, 800 923 703 790
us : 31,300 24,800 28,500 1,189 942 1,083
TANGELOS 2
FLA 2 4,900 5,100 4,200 221 230 189

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST Is COMPLETED.

@/ NET LBS PER BOX? ORANGES@CALIF & ARIZ=75,FLA=90,
TEX@65% GRAPEFRUIT@CALIF DESERT & ARIZ—~64, CALIF
OTHER=67, FLA=8S, TEX=803 LEMONS=767 TANGELOS &
TEMPLES~90} TANGERINES= CALIF & ARIZ=75, FLA=95.

3B/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA, EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEXAS,

4/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT "OTHER AREAS®
WILL BE AS OF DEC i.

PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL OTHER HAY

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

1982 : 1980

ALA 625 640 670 1.65 1.80 1.90 1,031 1,152 1,273
ARIZ 1/ 30 30 15 3.50 3.20 2.50 105 96 38
ARK 843 870 830 1.30 1.85 1.90 1,096 1,610 1,577
CALIF 520 515 530 2.20 2.40 2.50 1,144 1,236 1,325
COLO : 720 685 700 1.30 1.45 1.60 936 993 1,120
CONN T/: 65 64 61 1.75 1.85 1.80 114 118 110
DEL V/: 10 12 1.70 1.80 1.90 19 18 23
FLA OU 240 230 230 2.30 2.10 2.20 552 483 506
GA 2 460 475 500 1.60 2.15 2.40 736 1,021 1,200
IDAHO 290 290 320 2.00 1.70 2.00 580 493 640
ILL 440 435 430 1.95 2.05 2.10 858 892 903
INO 425 410 410 2.20 2.30 2.40 935 943 984
10WA 510 480 530 2.30 2.55 2.55 1,173 1,224 1,352
KANS 1,150 1,300 1,350 1.15 1.90 1.95 1,323 2,470 2,633
ky 1,360 1,360 1,360 1.75 1.90 2.00 2,380 2,584 2,720
LA 342 352 360 1.70 2.20 2.20 581 774 792
MAINE 1/ 198 200 202 1.60 1.75 1.80 317 350 364
MD 165 165 175 2.10 2.00 1.90 347 330 333
MASS 1/ 92 93 90 2.10 2.15 2.30 193 200 207
MICH 290 270 300 2.00 2.20 2.20 580 594 660
MINN 850 860 920 1.70 2.10 1.90 1,445 1,806 1,748
MISS 650 675 625 1.60 1.85 2.10 1,040 1,249 1,313
MO 2,750 3,000 2,950 1.20 1.70 1.65 3,300 5,100 4,868
MONT 1,000 1,020 1,040 1.35 1.40 1.70 1,350 1,428 1,768
NEBR 2,050 2,050 2,150 1.00 1.00 1.20 2,050 2,050 2,580
NEV 285 250 280 1.20 1.20 1.25 342 300 350
NH V/ 73 72 71 1.95 2.10 2.00 142 151 142
Ng WV 66 70 70 2.00 2.00 2.10 132 140 147
N MEX 1/ 70 75 65 1.60 1.70 1.50 2 128 98
NY 1,400 1,300 1,350 2.00 2.00 2.00 2,800 2,600 2,700
NC 357 357 360 1.50 1.60 1.60 536 571 576
N DAK 1,600 1,630 1,650 0.85 1.35 1.50 1,360 2,201 2,475
OHIO 890 920 850 2.15 2.20 2.20 1,914 2,024 1,870
OKLA 1,150 1,280 1,030 1.10 1.70 1.60 1,265 2,176 1,648
OREG 3 645 635 670 1.85 1.80 1.80 1,193 1,143 1,206
PA : 1,110 1,120 1,140 1.80 1.90 1.90 1,998 2,128 2,166
RI W: 8 8 8 1.50 1,50 1.60 12 12 13
$c 3 208 218 220 1.70 1.90 2.20 354 414 484
S DAK : 1,860 1,940 1,900 1.15 1.15 1.60 2,139 2,231 3,040
TENN : 1,080 1,155 1,100 1.40 1.55 1.50 1,512 1,790 1,650
TEX 2 2,500 2,650 2,800 1.90 2.30 2.20 4,750 6,095 6,160
UTAH 1/: 125 125 130 1.80 1.90 1.95 225 238 254
NT VW 345, 342 350 1.85 2.00 1.80 638 684 630
VA 880 875 915 1.60 1,60 1.50 1,408 1,400 1,373
WASH : 360 355 325 2.10 1.95 2.00 756 692 650
W VA 3 515 540 550 1.50 1.15 1.10 773 621 605
WIS 3 850 750 750 2.20 2.20 2.35 1,870 1,650 1,763
WYO H 665 672 640 1.10 1.20 1.35 732 806 864
US 33,118 33,818 33,984 1.54 1.76 1.82 51,148 §9,409 61,901

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


COTTONSEED: Cottonseed production based on a three year average Tintseed ratio, is forecast at
——————_ 4,52 million tons (4.10 million metric tons), compared with 6.40 million tons (5.80

million metric tons) in 1981.

HAY: All hay production in 1982 is forecast at a record high 152 million tons (138 million

~~ “Metric tons), up 7 percent from 1981 and 3 percent above the previous record high
production set in 1979. The all hay yield is forecast at 2.52 tons per acre compared with 2.38
tons in 1981. Growing conditons have been favorable for good growth except in the dry areas of
south central and north central U.S. Production is up from last year in Wisconsin, South
Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska, but declined in Minnesota.

Production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures is forecast at a.record 90.6 million tons (82.2
million metric tons), virtually the same as the August lforecast but 8 percent more than a year
ago and 3 percent above the previous record high set in 1979. Acreage for harvest totals 26.5
million acres (10.7 mtllion hectares), up 1 percent from 1981. Average yield, at 3.41 tons,
compares with 3.17 tons last year.

All other hay production is forecast at a record high 61.9 million tons (56.2 million metric
tons}, 4 percent above last year and 21 percent above 1980. Yield per acre is forecast at 1.82
tons per acre compared with 1.76 tons in 1981. Acreage for harvest totals 34.0 million acres
(13.8 million hectares), up only slightly from a year earlier.

DRY BEANS: Production of dry edible beans in 1982 is forecast at 25.6 million hundredweignt

(1.16 million metric tons), down 20 percent from a year ago and 2 percent less than
the September 1 forecast. Rain and frost have caused considerable damage, especially in
Colorado, Minnesota and North Dakota. The average yield per acre this year is forecast at 1394
pounds, down from 1445 pounds in 1981 and 1449 pounds in 1980. Area for harvest is expected to
total 1.84 million acres (743 thousand hectares), down 17 percent from last year and 7 percent
below September 1.

On October 1, harvest was behind normal in many of the producing areas. The Colorado
irrigated acreage suffered some fungus and discoloration damage from frequent showers. Heavy
moisture prolonged the period between when the beans were cut and threshed which caused
additional shattering. Minnesota and North Dakota received an early frost. Rains in Washington
after September 15 stopped harvest and lowered crop prospects. As of October 1, two weeks of
dry weather were needed to complete harvest.

Idaho and Wyoming were also plagued by wet weather in late September and harvest progress
was considerably behind schedule. California harvest has been active. Rain delayed operations
for a few days but all varieties left to be harvested are reported to be in good condition.
Michigan farmers have been able to harvest about on schedule. By October 3, 55 percent of the
crop was in the bin and most growers were expected to finish harvest in a week to ten days.
Quality of the Michigan beans is very. Rain during September was not persistent and caused very
little damage.

POTATOES: Fall potato production in the United States is forecast at 307 million cwt (13.9 mil-

lion metric tons), 4 percent more than 1981 and 15 percent above the 1980 crop. Area
for harvest is estimated at 1.09 million acres (443 thousand hectares), up 4 percent from last
year, but down fractionally from the September 1 estimate. Yields are expected to average 280
cwt per acre, down 1 cwt from yast year but 8 cwt above 1980. As of October 1, 42 percent of
the fall potato acreage was harvested, compared with 45 percent a year earlier.

In the seven Eastern States, production is expected to total 45.0 million cwt, a decline of 3
percent from last year, but 7 percent above 1980 production. Estimated yields averaging 244 cwt
per acre, are down 16 cwt from last year, but are 8 cwt above 1980. Area for harvest at 185
thousand acres climbed 4 percent from last year and 3 percent above two years ago. Potato
growers in the Northeastern States battled a poor growing season this year. Spring weather in
Maine was too wet and summer too dry for ideal sizing and development. In Upstate New York,
after a good spring start, hot summer weather caused premature dying of vines. A freeze and
snow on Long Island in April caused some re-planting. Dry weather later reduced sizing and made
harvest difficult. In Pennsylvania, harvest began in early August and by October 1 was 75
Percent complete. Soil moisture was dry to satisfactory. There was an average set of tubers.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at a record high 28.9 million

tons (26.2 million metric tons), 1 percent below the September 1 level but 5 percent
above the 1981 crop. All of the decrease from the September 1 forecast is the result of a
decrease of acreage for harvest in Florida.

Even though the acreage is smaller than anticipated earlier, the Florida crop is expected to
produce a record tonnage. The crop progressed well during September and cutting cane for seed
was active. Harvest for sugar is expected to start in October and all mills are expected to be
operating by early November.

Periodic rains in Hawaii, kept moisture levels adequate in most non-irrigated fields.
Irrigation continued in some drier areas. Harvesting progressed at a steady pace.

Sugarcane in Louisiana was in good condition. Planting was well underway.

HOPS: Production of hops is estimated at 79.0 million pounds (35.8 thousand metric tons}, up
fractionally from last month's forecast but down fractionally from last year.

Yield prospects decreased only in California. The U.S. average estimated yield of 1996
pounds per acre compares with 1836 pounds in 1983. The 39.6 thousand acres tis.o thousand
hectares) harvested is 3 percent less than last month's estimate and 8 percent less than last
year.

Harvest was complete in all States by October 1. The decrease in acreage from the September
1 forecast was mainly due to low prices.

PASTURE_AND RANGE FEED: The October 1 pasture and range feed condition averaged 81 percent of

normal for the 48 contiguous States. This is 1 percentage point above
a year ago, and 5 points more than the 1971-80 average for this date. During September,
conditions deteriorated in 29 States, were unchanged in 7 and improved in 12 States.

Ranges and pastures continued to deteriorate in Texas from a lack of sufficient rainfall.
The central and southern portions of the State had scarce grazing, with the Southeastern area
experiencing a severe drought. Supplemental feeding of livestock increased in most areas,
except in the High Plains where ranges provide good to excellent grazing. The depletion of soil
moisture caused conditions to decline 3 points in Kansas and 4 points in Oklahoma compared with
a month earlier. In the Rocky Mountain area pastures and ranges continued to improve through
September and provided good to excellent feed. Cattle are being moved to lower elevations as
early fall snows hamper grazing in some areas. Seasonal rainfall across Arizona and New Mexico
caused significant improvement in the regrowth of grasses. Showers late in the month helped
replenish needed soil moisture across the North Central] States, but portions of Minnesota, North
Dakota and South Dakota would benefit from additional rainfall.

Scattered rainfall across the eastern Third of the Nation caused widely varying pasture
conditions. Most States showed some areas of poor to fair pasture growth, while a few areas
from Maryland through New York and portions of North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio reported very
poor fall pastures.

APPLES: The final forecast of the 1982 U.S. apple crop is 8.46 billion pounds (3.84 million
metric tons), down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast of 8.58 billion pounds (3.89
million metric tons) but 9 percent more than last year's production.

The Eastern States expect a crop of 3.12 billion pounds, down fractionally from August 1 but
12 percent above last year. Prospects declined from August 1 in New Hampshire and Virginia
where dry weather reduced fruit size. Harvest in North Carolina was 80 percent complete as of
October 3. Picking is at its mid-point in New York where the trees are heavy with fruit but
apple size was smaller than normal. West Virginia reported some frost damage and some of the
crop has been lost because of a Tack of labor.

In the Central States, prospects are for a crop of 1.46 billion pounds, down fractionally
from the August 1 forecast but 26 percent above last year's production. Michigan apple growers
expect to harvest 950 million pounds, 44 percent more than last year's crop. Harvest is in full
swing with size and quality reported to be generally above average. Hail damage, fire blight,
and more damage than anticipated from severe weather last winter and spring lowered prospects in
I1]nois where the crop is 65 percent picked.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1982 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA