All Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

1,000 Acres --- Tons ---
AL 730 750 2.40 2.40 1,512 1,752 1,800
AZ 179 215 7.53 7.44 1,392 1,347 1,599
AR : 1,150 1,175 2.01 2.21 2,011 2,310 2,593
CA > 1,450 1,490 5.52 5.80 8,341 8,008 8,641
co > 1,440 1,480 2.82 3.00 3,978 4,054 4,446
cT 2 80 65 2.03 1.65 142 162 107
DE A 15 15 4,27 3.27 31 64 49
FL + 240 230 2.60 3.10 575 624 713
GA : 600 600 2.80 2.80 1,500 1,680 1,680
ID + 1,280 1,320 3.72 3.90 5,080 4,760 5,148
IL : 1,000 1,020 3.04 3.11 3,598 3,040 3,168
IN : 725 750 2.79 3.24 2,400 2,020 2,428
IA : 1,700 1,700 3.13 2.89 5,665 5,320 4,910
KS : 2,500 2,600 2.80 2.62 6,555 7,020 6,805
KY + 2,400 2,400 2.38 2.20 5,790 5,700 5,280
LA 310 330 2.70 2.70 744 837 891
ME 185 158 1.82 1.81 419 336 286
MD 220 220 3.17 2.42 552 698 532
MA 95 105 2.00 1.80 192 190 189
MI 1,300 1,250 3.22 2.92 5,025 4,190 3,650
MN : 2,225 2,450 2.70 2.45 6,943 5,998 6,005
MS : 800 750 2.50 2.60 1,668 2,000 1,950
MO 1 3,680 3,480 1.88 2.05 6,818 6,920 7,146
MT 2,600 2,600 1.89 2.31 5,360 4,920 5,995
NE 3,250 3,150 2.29 2.05 7,200 7,445 6,445
NV Hy 490 490 3.07 3.07 1,505 1,505 1,505
NH 3 67 55 1.75 1.62 137 117 89
NT 120 120 2.24 2.00 285 269 240
NM 355 375 4.44 4.61 1,515 21,577 1,730
NY 1,510 1,500 2.30 2.16 3,448 3,468 3,244
NC 540 530 2.12 2.22 1,286 1,145 1,178
ND 2,900 2,400 1.66 1.31 5,095 4,825 3,140
OH 1,200 1,250 2.83 3.13 4,035 3,400 3,915
OK 2,690 2,620 1.88 1.91 4,174 5,045 5,011
OR 1,070 1,080 3.03 3.45 3,300 3,244 3,723
PA 1,880 1,950 2.44 1.72 4,409 4,585 3,355
RI 8 9 2.63 2.00 14 21 18
sc 280 300 2.00 2.40 720 560 720
sD 4,300 4,100 1.91 1.92 9,050 8,200 7,860
TN 1,790 1,690 2.13 2.13 3,920 3,811 3,605
TX 4,350 4,810 1.80 2.46 8,136 7,815 11,830
uT 705 700 3.57 3.84 2,644 2,516 2,685
vT 250 235 2.03 1.65 559 507 388
VA 1,280 1,250 2.34 1.90 2,571 2,998 2,380
WA 2 800 780 3.93 4.35 3,278 3,140 3,396
wv 3 570 570 1.87 1.85 1,056 1,066 1,057
WI 2,500 2,400 2.42 2.55 6,820 6,050 6,120
wy 1,220 1,290 1.81 1.93 2,718 2,208 2,496
us 61,029 60,807 2.45 2.50 154,166 149,457 152,142

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A~20 NASS, USDA


beginning of October the majority of the Corn Belt remained frost free with the
exception of parts of Michigan and Wisconsin.

In Iowa, forecasted ear population is at a record high. Eight percent of the
corn was harvested as of October 5, compared to 5 percent in 1996 and the
average of 10 percent. Corn condition was 80 percent fair to good.

Forecasted ear count in Illinois is below 1996 but above the five-year average.
Thirteen percent of the corn was harvested, compared to 14 percent a year ago
and the five~year average of 15 percent. The majority (82 percent) of corn was
rated in fair to good condition.

In Ohio, ear populations are above last year and the average. One percent of the
corn was harvested, lagging behind last year’s six percent and the five-year
average of nine percent. Corn condition was 74 percent fair to good.

Nebraska and Wisconsin ear populations are below last year but above the
five-year average. Eleven percent of the corn was harvested in Nebraska, ahead
of last year’s six percent and the five-year average of 10 percent. In
Wisconsin, four percent of the corn was harvested compared to five percent in
1996 and the average of seven percent. In Nebraska, 76 percent of the corn was
rated in fair to good condition, whereas 86 percent was rated in good to
excellent condition in Wisconsin.

In Minnesota and Indiana, forecasted ear counts are below last year and the
five-year average. In Indiana, 5 percent of the corn was harvested, compared to
8 percent in 1996 and the average of 13 percent. Six percent of the corn was
harvested in Minnesota, equal to last year and the five-year average. In
Indiana, 83 percent of the corn was rated in fair to good condition compared to
78 percent for Minnesota.

Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 664 million bushels, 2 percent
higher than the September forecast, but 17 percent below the

1996 total. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from September

at 9.51 million acres, down 20 percent from the previous year. The U.S.

yield is forecast at 69.9 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month and

2.4 bushels above 1996. Half of the 12 October estimating States raised yields

from the month earlier. New Mexico and Missouri showed the largest increases

from September, up five and four bushels per acre, respectively. Nebraska,

down seven bushels, was the only State to show a decline.

Mild late summer weather in most areas helped promote the growth and development
of the U.S. sorghum crop. As of October 5, 78 percent of the crop was mature in
the top 12 producing States, nine points ahead of normal. Harvest, however, was
one point behind the five-year average at 36 percent completion. The Kansas
crop continued to benefit from favorable moisture received during August.
Conditions were rated at 79 percent good to excellent as of September 28,

five points greater than the end of August. Twenty-three percent of the State's
crop had been harvested by the first week of October, seven points ahead of
normal. Harvest progress in Texas had reached 61 percent completion by

October 5 and producers in the southern part of the State were reporting good to
excellent yields. Crop maturity in Colorado was two to three weeks behind
normal by the end of September, but growers felt the crop was beyond the point
of being significantly damaged by frost. Sorghum harvest was nearing completion
in Louisiana by the first week of October.

Rice: Rice production is forecast at 179 million cwt, down 1 percent from
September 1 but up 5 percent from 1996. If realized, this would be the

fourth highest production on record. Area for harvest, estimated at

3.04 million acres, is unchanged from September 1, but 9 percent above last

year.

The average yield is forecast at 5,907 pounds per acre, down 68 pounds from last
month and 214 pounds from a year ago. Yields decreased in Arkansas and
Mississippi. High temperatures in Arkansas during the time when rice heads were

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-5 NASS, USDA


| CROP MOISTURE |

(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

September 27, 1997

NOMUSDA JONT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY tesatonpeiirmyreso |

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm Season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-1 NASS, USDA


In New York, about 20 percent of the crop had been picked by late September.
Beneficial rains in late September helped yields and recent ideal conditions
improved the outlook. In Wyoming, combining is winding down after excellent
harvest weather. Harvest progress, at 91 percent complete, is well ahead of the
5-year average of 70 percent.

Lentils: Production of lentils in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and Washington

is estimated at 2.27 million cwt, up 71 percent from 1996's
drought-stricken crop. Harvest was virtually complete by late September in
Idaho and Washington. Both harvested acres and yields were above last year.
Harvested area, at 164,000 acres, was wp 17 percent from 1996, while the average
yield of 1,387 pounds was up 435 pounds from last year.

Dry Edible Peas: Production of dry peas in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North
Dakota, Oregon, and Washington in 1997 is estimated at
5.76 million cwt, more than double 1996's production and 21 percent above 1995.
Adequate rainfall in 1997 led to yields in Idaho and Washington which were well
above yields from the dry 1996 growing season. In addition, marked growth in
dry pea production is occurring in Montana and North Dakota. Overall, planted
area in 1997 reached 292,600 acres, and harvested area totaled 274,600 acres.
These are the largest planted and harvested areas since 1963 when growers
planted 335,000 acres and harvested 315,000 acres. The 1997 production topped
all levels since 1947's 5.80 million cwt.

Austrian Winter Peas: An Austrian winter pea crop of 82,000 cwt in Idaho and
Oregon is down 20 percent from 1996 and 31 percent below

the 1995 production. Area harvested, at 5,400 acres, is down 26 percent from

last year, while the average yield increased 108 pounds to 1,519 pounds in 1997.

Winter Potatoes, 1997 Revised: The final 1997 winter potato production is

estimated at 3.12 million cwt, down 5 percent
from a year earlier but 26 percent above 1985 output. Harvested acreage was
estimated at 15,400 acres, a gain of 6 percent from 1996, while the final yield
of 203 cwt per acre fell 23 cwt short of the previous year. Final production in
California was 2 percent below the forecast made in April.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 1.65 billion
pounds, up 2 percent from the September 1 estimate and 9 percent above
the 1996 production. The larger production outlook for 1997 is primarily the
result of increased acreage. Harvested acreage, estimated at 794,750 acres, is
8 percent above last year. Yields are expected to average 2,072 pounds per
acre, up 41 pounds from last month but only 1 pound above the average for 1996.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 983 million pounds, up 2 percent from
September 1 and 8 percent above last year's output Producers plan to harvest
450,700 acres, up 7 percent from last year. Flue-cured tobacco accounts for

57 percent of this year's total tobacco acreage. Flue-cured yields are expected
to average 2,182 pounds per acre, up 44 pounds from September and 31 pounds
above last year.

North Carolina's flue-cured crop prospects in the Eastern and Border Belts
(Types 12 & 13) improved with September rains followed by warm, dry weather
which greatly facilitated harvesting activities. The September rains in the old
Belt (Type 11) provided some stability for tobacco that was struggling due to
prolonged dry conditions but came too late to significantly improve prospects
for the crop.

Burley production is expected to total 573 million pounds, up 2 percent from
September 1 projections and 10 percent above the 1996 production. The increase

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-10 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Cwt
AR 2 1,470 1,337 6,150 5,850 5,600 71,945 74,872
CA : 500 513 7,490 8,200 8,500 37,459 43,605
LA : $33 565 4,870 4,650 4,650 25,977 26,273
MS z 208 268 6,000 5,600 5,500 12,480 14,740
MO1/ oo: 90 95 5,550 5,400 5,400 4,995 5,130
TX 3 298 259 6,200 5,700 5,700 18,465 14,763
US : 2,799 3,037 6,121 5,975 5,907 171,321 179,383

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

: 1,000 cwt

: 121,730 51,242 900 173,871
56,790 171,321
52,423 179,383

1/ Indicated October 1, 1997,
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

rice class estimates are based on a five-year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 BR-14 NASS, USDA


Holiday Inn Mart Plaza
Chicago, Tllinois
October 20, 1997

}be organizing an open forum for Data Users. The
purpose will be to provide updates on pending
changes in the USDA statistical and information
programs including the status of the 1997 Census of

}Agriculture, and to seek comments and input from
Idata users. Other agencies to be represented will
include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the
Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural
Service, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

For registration details, see the NASS home page
http: //www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Fred Vogel
(NASS) (202) 720-3896 or fvogel@nass.usda.gov

® U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1997 433-605/60029

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-20 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on
November 10, 1997.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

Cc. Ray Halley, Chief {202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369
Rhonda Brandt- Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720~7621

Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526
Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234
Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285
Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,

Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235

Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215
Linda Simpson - Peaches, Pears, Nectarines, Mint,

Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270

Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1997 B-18 NASS, USDA


10-year Record of
Differences Between Forecast
and Final Estimate

Crop and
Unit

Corn for Grain Bu: 4.2 7.2 4 626 5 5
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 5.8 10.1 6 105 6 4
Rice Cwt: 3.1 5.3 1 13 5 5
Soybeans for 3

Beans Bu: 3.7 6.5 2 103 5 5
Cotton Bales 1/: 4.4 ° 7.6 321 1,424 7 3
Dry Edible 2

Beans Cwt : 3.6 6.2 1.3 7 3

1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-16 NASS, USDA


Lentils: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1996-97 1/

Area Planted

WA
Oth Sts 2/

us

ID
WA

Oth Sts 2/

1/ 1995 and 1996 revised.
2/ MT and ND.

Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1996-97 1/ 2/

Area Planted

1,000 Acres

ID 59.0 74.0
WA 108.0 114.0
Oth Sts 3/ 37.9 86.6
US
ID
WA

Oth Sts 3/

1/ Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas.
2/ 1995 and 1996 revised.
3/ MT, NV, ND, and OR.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-24 NASS, USDA


developing may have attributed to the decrease in yield. California was the
only State to show an increase over last month. Yields in Louisiana, Missouri,
and Texas remained unchanged from September.

Favorable weather in Arkansas over the past month has led to 77 percent of the
crop being harvested by October 5. However, this is slightly below the average
of 78 percent and behind the 85 percent of last year. Harvesting in California,
Louisiana, and Mississippi is ahead of the five year average. Texas harvest
lags slightly behind the average and last year.

Soybeans: Soybeans intended for harvest, at 69.8 million acres, are unchanged
from the September forecast. Crop maturity is well ahead of the
last two years. As of October 5, the percent of soybeans dropping leaves was
86 percent, compared to 73 percent last year and a five year average of
80 percent. The percent of soybeans dropping leaves in Missouri was 29 points
ahead of last year. In Illinois, the percent of soybeans dropping leaves was
22 points ahead of last year. Soybeans were rated in mostly fair to good
condition as of the week ending October 5.

The soybean harvest was 37 percent complete as of October 5, 22 points ahead of
last year and 14 points ahead of the five year average. The harvest progressed
at a rapid pace across the Corn Belt during the week of September 28-October 5
as warm dry weather provided excellent conditions for harvest. Farmers in
Minnesota harvested more than half of their soybean crop during the week, while
Iowa farmers harvested nearly 50 percent of their crop.

In Minnesota, 69 percent of the crop was harvested as of October 5, 51 points
ahead of 1996 and 49 points ahead of the 5 year average. The harvest in Iowa
was 56 percent complete by October 5, compared to 19 percent last year anda

five year average of 28 percent. Missouri farmers had harvested 25 percent of
the crop, 15 points ahead of last year and 12 points above the 5 year average.

In Nebraska, 30 percent of the harvest was completed by October 5, 12 points
ahead of the previous year but 2 points behind the 5 year average. The percent
of soybeans harvested in Indiana and Ohio was 27 percent and 19 percent,
respectively, well ahead of last year but short of the five year average.

The October Objective Yield Survey shows pods per 18 square feet in Arkansas at
a record high. The October Survey pod counts are above the 1996 final pod
counts in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Ohio. The survey pod counts
are below the 1996 final count in Minnesota and Missouri.

Sunflower: The 1997 sunflower production is forecast at 3.75 billion pounds,
up 4 percent from the 1996 production but 7 percent below

production two years ago. Growers expect to harvest 2.81 million acres,

12 percent more than 1996. Yields are expected to average 1,334 pounds per

acre, down 101 pounds from last year.

In North Dakota, yield is forecasted at 1,290 pounds per acre, down 198 bushels
from a year ago. Crop prospects have been damaged by midge, blackbirds, and
variable weather conditions. As of October 5, 21 percent of the crop was
harvested compared to 5 percent during the same period last year and a five year
average of S percent. Bracts were 92 percent brown compared to 93 percent during
the same period a year ago. The crop was rated in mostly fair to good condition.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.51 billion pounds, down 4 percent from
both the September 1 forecast and from 1996's production. Acreage
for harvest is estimated at 1.38 million acres, unchanged from September 1 and
4,500 acres above last year. Yields are expected to average 2,539 pounds per
harvested acre, down 103 pounds from last month and 114 pounds below 1996.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-6 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Crop and Unit

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Rice 1/

Soybeans for Beans

Peanuts

Sunflower 2/

All Cotton 1/
Upland 1/
Amer-Pima 1/

Cottonseed

All Hay 3/

Alfalfa 3/

All Other 3/
Dry Edible Beans 1/ 3/
Dry Edible Peas 1/ 2/
Austrian Winter

Peas 1/ 2/
Lentils 1/ 2/
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed
Apples, Comm'] 3/
Grapes 3/

Pecans

Hazelnuts

Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1996 and Forecasted October 1,
(Domestic Units)

9,293,435
802,974
171,321

2,382,364

3,661,205

3,586,615

18,942.0
18,413.5
528.5
7,143.5
149,457
79,377
70,080
27,354
2,671.0

103

1,333
1,517,334
26,680

29,462
10,355,000
5,548.0
221,500
18.5

1997

9,267,655
653,208
181,455

2,745,891

3,658,525

18,417.5
17,873.5
544.0
7,052.8
153,886
77,817
76,069
29,163

1,614,173
29,358

29,664
10,648,900
6,644.4
292,000
40.0

9,311,705
664,499
179,383

2,721, 843

3,514,625

3,745,280

18,409.5
17, 863.5
546.0
7,058.8
152,141
78,168
73,973
29,255
5,760.0

82

2,274
1,646,796
29,638

29,695
10,423,900
6,659.4
275,000
40.0

1/ Yield in pounds.
2/ 1996 revised.

3/ September 1 forecast carried forward from August 1.

Crop Production
October 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Tons (In-shell Basis)

OR 38,800 18,400 39,800
WA 1/ 200 100 200
us 39,000 18,500 40,000

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 1996-97

Fresh Production

---------------- 1,000 Pounds

1,670 2,335 2,990 2,715
1,630 1,955 3,005 2,685
Crop Production Agricuitural Statistics Board

October 1997 A-35 NASS, USDA


Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures:
by State and United States,

AZ 160
AR 1/ 25
CA 940
co 860
ct 1/ 15
DE 1/ : 7
ID : 1,000
IL 600
IN 425
TA : 1,200
KS 800
KY 300
ME 1/ 10
MD 1/ 60
MA 1/ 15
MI 950
MN : 1,475
MO 480
MT : 1,700
NE : 1,400
NV 240
NE 1/ 12
NJ 1/ 25
NM 255
NY 640
ne 1/ 15
ND : 1,700
OH 700
OK 390
OR 460
PA 750
RI 1/ : 2
sD : 2,500
TN 1/ : 40
Tx 150
UT 545
vr 1/ 65
VA l/s 130
WA 490
w o1/ 40
WI : 2,100
Wy 620
us : 24,291

Area Harvested

- 1,000 Acres ~-

180
25
970
860
15

3
1,020
600
425
1,250
850
300

8

60

20
900
1,450
480
1,750
1,300
240
10

20
275
610
15
1,300
600
390
465
820

Area Harvested,

Yield,

1995-96 and Forecasted October 1,

1,287
63
6,486
3,060
32

15
4,510
2,480
1,280
4,860
3,230
1,170
30
237
48
4,305
4,988
1,260
4,000
4,860
1,080
27
105
1,325
1,690
62
3,080
2,660
1,444
1,935
2,262
4
6,500
180
576
2,344
200
462
2,550
120
5,980
1,728

84,515

Production

- 1,000 Tons

1,280
60
6,580
3,010
38

32
4,200
2,160
1,360
4,320
3,440
1,080
30
282
30
3,420
4,573
1,320
3,570
5,040
1,080
23

88
1,377
1,728
42
3,145
2,100
1,365
2,024
2,325
6
5,500
136
675
2,180

and Production

1997

carried forward from an earlier forecast.

1/ Estimates for current year

Crop Production

October 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA



Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,

--- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds --

Class 1, Flue-cured :
Type 11, Old Belts :
Nc : 76,000 86,000 2,120 2,050 161,120 176,300

VA : 37,700 40,000 2,235 2,150 84,260 86,000
US : 113,700 126,000 2,158 2,082 245,380 262,300
Type 12, Eastern NC :
Belt 3
NC : 167,000 181,000 2,025 2,250 338,175 407,250
Type 13, NC Border & :
sc Belt t
NC : 37,000 38,000 1,980 2,250 73,260 85,500
sc : 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 117,810 121,500
us : 88,000 92,000 2,171 2,250 191,070 207,000
Type 14, GA-FL Belt :
FL : 7,500 7,700 2,680 2,450 20,100 18,865
GA : 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,000 113,620 88,000
us : 53,500 51,700 2,499 2,067 133,720 106,865

Total 11-14
Class 2, Fire-cured
Type 21, VA Belt

422,200 450,700 2,151 2,182 908,345 983,415

VA 3 1,100 1,200 1,580 1,500 1,738 1,800
Type 22, Eastern :
District 2
KY 2 3,800 3,900 2,720 2,500 10,336 9,750
TN : 7,500 7,600 2,550 2,406 19,125 18,240
us : 11,300 11,500 2,607 2,434 29,461 27,990
Type 23, Western :
District :
KY : 3,600 3,800 3,160 2,900 11,376 11,020
TN : 580 580 2,850 2,500 1,653 1,450
US 2 4,180 4,380 3,117 2,847 13,029 12,470
Total 21-23 : 16,580 17,080 2,668 2,474 44,228 42,260
Class 3, Air-cured :
Class 3A, Light :
Air-cured z
Type 31, Burley :
IN : 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,150 14,972 19,135
KY : 185,000 210,000 1,980 1,950 366,300 409,500
MO 1/ : 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 6,021 6,355
Nc : 7,800 9,000 1,665 1,650 12,987 14,850
OH 3 8,006 9,500 1,580 2,000 12,640 19,000
TN : 46,000 49,000 1,915 1,700 88,090 83,300
VA : 9,500 10,000 1,835 1,800 17,433 18,000
wy 1/ : 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,040 3,240
us : 268,300 301,300 1,940 1,903 520,483 573,380
Type 32, Southern MD
Belt :
MD : 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 10,000 12,000
PA 3 3,200 3,000 1,900 1,900 6,080 5,700
us : 11,200 11,000 1,436 1,609 16,080 17,700

Total 31-32

279,500 312,300 1,920 1,893 536,563 591,080

~-continued

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-27 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997 1/

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres

123.0 125.0 1,900 2,000 2,740 2,337 2,500
125.0 125.0 1,800 2,000 2,558 2,250 2,500
93.0 112.0 2,050 2,150 2,160 1,907 2,408
24.0 20.0 1,850 1,800 481 444 360
320.0 310.0 1,450 1,650 6,930 4,640 5,115
120.0 165.0 1,500 1,500 2,055 1,800 2,475
10.3 11.7 2,280 2,200 205 235 257
195.0 180.0 1,900 2,050 3,588 3,705 3,690
12.0 12.0 2,200 2,200 251 264 264
29.0 39.5 1,300 1,700 538 377 672
570.0 530.0 1,320 1,300 7,182 7,524 6,890
8.8 10.9 1,800 1,900 208 158 207
10.90 14.0 840 1,200 225 84 168
+6 5.6 1,600 500 32 10 28
35.0 38.0 2,030 2,050 902 710 779
8.0 8.4 1,800 2,000 117 144 168
34.0 36.0 2,250 2,150 640 765 774
1,717.7 1,743.1 1,592 1,678 30,812 27,354 29,255

1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-23 NASS, USDA


Corn: Ears per Acre

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
surveys in 7 States during 1997. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts
and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey
and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are
intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre
Selected States, 1993-97 1/

Number of Ears

IL Oct 3 22,600 22,650 22,900 23,700 23,500

Nov 3 22,600 22,600 22,850 23,600

IN Oct : 22,400 22,150 23,000 22,750 22,150
Nov : 22,200 22,150 22,950 22,700

IA Oct : 22,700 24,050 24,050 24,350 24,600
Nov t 22,500 24,000 24,000 24,250

MN Oct : 23,700 26,950 25,750 26,400 26,150
Nov : 24,900 26,950 25,700 26,450

NE Oct : 21,300 21,200 21,800 22,600 21,900
Nov : 21,100 21,300 21,700 22,550

OH Oct : 21,700 22,400 22,650 22,300 22,500
Nov : 21,700 22,500 22,500 22,000

WI Oct 22,600 24,600 23,600 24,250 24,350
Nov 23,100 24,650 23,250 24,650

1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-36 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Area Harvested

1997

pooo-------- +--+ 1996

1,000 Bales 2/

1,000 Acres --

Upland
AL 3 516.0 420.0 734 526 526 789.0 460.0
AZ : 314.0 329.0 1,189 1,138 1,138 778.0 780.0
AR 3 990.0 930.0 793 748 769 1,636.0 1,490.0
CA : 995.0 875.0 1,153 1,207 1,207 2,390.0 2,200.0
FL 3/ 2 98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0
GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 747 736 702 2,079.0 2,100.0
KS 3/ : 4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 13.5
LA : 885.0 625.0 697 637 653 1,286.0 850.0
MS = 1,100.0 960.0 819 790 820 1,876.0 1,640.0
MO : 385.0 365.0 737 671 684 591.0 520.0
NM 2 55.0 66.0 733 698 698 84.0 96.0
nc : 710.0 675.0 677 590 555 1,002.0 780.0
OK 2 210.0 210.0 306 503 503 134.0 220.0
sc 3 282.0 285.0 774 741 691 455.0 410.0
TN 2 530.0 500.0 ell 566 605 675.0 630.0
TX : 4,100.0 5,300.0 509 A489 489 4,345.0 5,400.0
VA 3/ : 102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0
US : 12,612.2 13,187.5 701 651 650 18,413.5 17,863.5
Amer-Pima :
AZ : 41.9 20.0 852 792 840 74.4 35.0
cA 3 164.0 184.0 1,098 1,148 1,148 375.0 440.0
NM 3 14.0 13.0 651 665 665 19.0 18.0
TX : 36.0 32.0 801 795 795 60.1 53.0
US 3 255.9 249.0 991 1,049 1,053 528.5 546.0
All z
AL : 516.0 420.0 734 526 526 789.0 460.0
AZ z 355.9 349.0 1,150 1,118 1,121 852.4 815.0
AR 3 990.0 930.0 793 748 769 1,636.0 1,490.0
CA : 1,159.0 1,059.0 1,145 1,197 1,197 2,765.0 2,640.0
FL 3/ 3 98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0
GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 TAT 736 702 2,079.0 2,100.0
KS 3/ : 4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 413.5
LA : 885.0 625.0 697 637 653 1,286.0 850.0
MS > 1,100.0 960.0 819 790 820 1,876.0 1,640.0
MO : 385.0 365.0 737 671 684 592.0 520.0
NM : 69.0 79.0 717 693 693 103.0 114.0
NC t 710.0 675.0 677 590 555 1,002.0 780.0
OK : 210.0 210.0 306 503 503 134.0 220.0
sc : 282.0 285.0 7174 VAL 691 455.0 410.0
TN : 530.0 500.0 611 566 605 675.0 630.0
TX : 4,136.0 5,332.0 511 491 491 4,405.1 5,453.0
VA 3/ : 102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0
12,868.1 13,436.5 707 658 658 18,942.0 18,409.5

1/ production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-lb net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-18 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97
(Metric Units)

: Area Planted : Area Harvested

1997 1/

z Hectares
Oats > 1,886,260 2,031,840 1,086,530 1,178,050
Barley : 2,891,110 2,796,410 2,738,540 2,600,130
All Wheat : 30,603,060 28,728,540 25,465,930 25,728,980
Winter : 21,026,880 19,563,520 16,057,690 16,921,300
Durum : 1,469,020 1,315,240 1,439,080 1,257,370
Other Spring : 8,107,150 7,849,770 7,969,160 7,550,300
Rye 3 593,680 579,920 140,430 138,000
Flaxseed : 38,850 61,510 37,230 59,080
Potatoes 2
Winter 2/ : 5,870 6,310 5,870 6,230
Spring 3 37,800 35,490 36,420 34,840
Summer : 31,570 27,880 30,270 26,710
Fall z 513,920 485,060 504,530 478,140
Total 2/ : 589,150 554,750 577,090 545,930
Sweetpotatoes : 36,060 35,530 34,320 34,280
Hops 17,870 17,790
Ginger Root (HI) 80 110

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
2/ 1997 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-10 NASS, USDA


Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997 1/

Total Production

Million Pounds

AZ 2/ 11.0 100.0 45.0
AR 2/ : 10.0 7.0 10.0
CA 2/ t 850.0 900.0 900.0
co 2/ 3 55.0 35.0 50.0
CP 2/ 3 20.5 20.0 20.0
DE 3/ 3 15.0 15.0

GA 2/ 2 30.0 22.0 26.0
ID 2/ : 80.0 180.0 130.0
IL 2/ 3 80.0 53.0 89.0
IN 2/ : 75.0 48.0 56.0
IA 2/ 2 10.0 9.5 11.9
KS 2/ : 6.5 2.0 7.0
KY 2/ : 17.0 15.0 12.0
ME 2/ z 65.0 67.0 64.0
MD 2/ : 35.0 29.0 26.0
MA 2/ 2 65.0 58.0 58.0
MI 3 1,220.0 725.0 1,000.0
MN 2/ : 22.0 21.0 22.0
MO 2/ : 38.0 32.0 43.0
NH 2/ 3 44.0 38.0 41.0
NI 2/ : 75.0 60.0 65.0
NM 3/ : 3.0 5.0

NY : 1,110.0 1,030.0 1,120.0
Nc : 270.0 200.0 160.0
OH 2/ z 120.0 90.0 75.0
OR 2/ 3 140.0 139.0 155.0
PA 2 500.0 391.0 475.0
RI 2/ 3 4.5 6.0 6.0
sc 2/ : 60.0 35.0 55.0
TN 2/ 3 16.0 11.0 11.0
UT 2/ : 20.0 48.0 33.0
vr 2/ : 45.0 37.5 35.0
VA 2 400.0 275.0 250.0
WA 3 4,850.0 5,500.0 5,200.0
WV : 165.0 105.0 110.0
WI 2/ z 57.5 46.0 63.0
us 7 10,585.0 10,355.0 10,423,9

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
3/ Forecast discontinued.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-33 NASS, USDA


Grapes: Total Production by Crop,

State, and United States,

1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Grapes (Table Type) 1/

CA : 707,
Grapes (Wine Type) 1/ 2
CA + 2,275,
Grapes (Raisin Type) 1/ 2/ :
CA : 2,252,
All Grapes :
AZ 1/ : 26,
AR 1/ : 8,
CA 1/ : 5,234,
GA 1/ : 3,
MI : 70,
MO 1/ z 2,
NY : 165,
Nec 1/ t 1,
OH 1/ : 9,
OR 1/ : 14,
PA : 63,
sc 1/ 3
WA : 326,
us 5,922

000
000
000

000
000
000
200
000
300
000
300
200
000
000
300
000

592,000
2,225,000
2,186,000

25,000
9,000
5,003,000
3,500
65,000
2,000
189,000
1,200
8,000
15,000
83,000
500
144,000

5,548,200

700,000
2,700,000
2,600,000

23,000
8,000
6,000,000
4,000
65,000
2,000
155,000
1,000
8,900
18,000
65,000
450
309,000

6,659,350

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

2/ Fresh basis.

Crop Production

October 1997 A-30

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States, 1996-97
(Domestic Units)
Yield per Acre Production
Crop and Unit poco e seo +--+ --------~---- +--+ +----~---+----~-----

Oats Bu H 57.8 60.5 155,273 176,104
Barley " 3 58.5 58.3 395,751 374,478
All Wheat " z 36.3 39.7 2,285,133 2,526,552

Winter . : 37.2 45.0 1,477,058 1,882,609

Durum ” 3 32.6 27.7 116,090 86,193

Other Spring . : 35.1 29.9 691,985 557,750
Rye . : 26.0 26.1 9,016 8,912
Potatoes :

Winter 2/ Cwt oo: 226 203 3,273 3,124

Spring " : 249 250 22,417 21,498

Summer . : 261 262 19,507 17,271

Fall " 2 364 453,436

Total . : 350 498,633
Hops Lb : 1,698 1,680 74,970.5 73,838.0
Ginger Root (HI) . = 47,000 44,000 9,400 12,100
Peaches * : 2,070,300 2,643,900
Pears Ton : 820.8 1,019.8
Sweet Cherries . : 154.3 191.3
Tart Cherries Lb 3 270,300 242,200
Apricots Ton : 79.8 132.0
Olives (CA) " : 166.0 95.0
Dried Prunes (CA) . 3 220.0 215.0
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) " : 20.0 28.4
Almonds (CA) Lb 3 510,000 680,000
Walnuts (CA) Ton : 208.0 230.0

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1997 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996~97
(Domestic Units)

: 1,000 Acres

Oats : A,661 5,169 2,685 2,911
Barley : 7,144 6,910 6,767 6,425
All Wheat 3 75,621 70,989 62,927 63,577
Winter : 51,958 48,342 39,679 41,813
Durum 2 3,630 3,250 3,556 3,107
Other Spring 3 20,033 19,397 19,692 18,657
Rye : 1,467 1,433 347 341
Flaxseed : 96 152 92 146
Potatoes :
Winter 2/ : 14.5 15.6 14.5 15.4
Spring : 93.4 87.7 90.0 86.1
Summer : 78.0 68.9 74.8 66.0
Fall : 1,269.9 1,198.6 1,246.7 1,181.5
Total 2/ : 1,455.8 1,370.8 1,426.0 1,349.0
Sweetpotatoes : Bo. 87.8 84.8 84.7
Hops : 44.2 44.0
Ginger Root (HI) : +2 +3

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
2/ 1997 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-6 NASS, USDA


Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1995-96

and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Production
—— 1995 ts si
: 7 7 7 1, 000 Tons
US

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint~seed ratio.

U.S. All Cotton Production

1988 - 1997
Million Bales

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1997 A-19

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1996 and Forecasted October 1, 1997
(Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare

Crop
2 Metric Tons

corn for Grain : 7.97 7.89 236,064,120 235,409,280 236,528,200
Sorghum for Grain 3 4.23 4.38 20,396,480 16,592,250 16,879,050
Rice : 6.86 6.62 7,770,990 8,230,660 8,136,680
Soybeans for Beans 1/ : 2.53 2.62 64,837,320 74,730,910 74,076,430
Peanuts : 2.97 2.85 1,660,690 1,659,480 1,594,210
Sunflower 1/ 2 1.61 1.50 1,626,860 1,698,830
All Cotton : 79 -74 4,124,140 4,009,940 4,008,200

Upland : +79 .73 4,009,070 3,891,500 3,889,320

Amer-Pima 3 1.12 1.18 115,070 118,440 118,880
Cottonseed : 6,480,470 6,398,190 6,403,640
All Hay 2/ 3 5.49 5.61 135,585,110 139,603,030 138,020,000

Alfalfa 2/ 2 7.33 7.44 72,009,600 70,594,390 70,912,820

All Other 2/ 3 4.28 4.45 63,575,510 69,008,640 67,107,180
Dry Edible Beans : 1.78 1.88 1,240,760 1,322,810 1,326,980
Dry Edible Peas 1/ 2 1.46 2.35 121,150 261,270
Austrian Winter 3

Peas 1/ : 1.58 1.70 4,670 3,720
Lentils 1/ : 1.07 1.55 60,460 103,150
Tobacco : 2.32 2.32 688,250 732,180 746,970
Sugarbeets > 45.20 46.36 24,203,690 26,633,130 26,887,140
Sugarcane for 3

Sugar and Seed : 74.30 72.79 26,727,480 26,910,730 26,938,850
Apples, Comm'1 2/ : 4,696,950 4,830,260 4,728,200
Grapes 2/ : 5,033,060 6,027,650 6,041,260
Pecans : 100,470 132,450 124,740
Hazelnuts 2 16,780 36,290 36,290

1/ 1996 revised.
2/ September 1 forecast carried forward from August 1.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-9 NASS, USDA


Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1996-97

Area Planted Area Harvested

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1996-97 1/

Area Planted

Area Harvested

cA 250 240 1,425 1,584

FL 210 175 1,848 1,540

us 3 226 203 3,273 3,124

1/ 1997 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1997 A-25 NASS, USDA


NU.sty National

Crop QssscTM
Production usps

Service
Washington, D.C.

a
Released October 10, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on “Crop Production” call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 am. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Forecasts refer to October 1, 1997. Index and report
Report Features are located at the end of this report.

Corn Production Up Fractionally;
Soybean Production Down Slightly

Corn production is forecast at 9.31 billion bushels, up fractionally from 1996
and the September 1 forecast. If realized, this will be the third highest corn
production on record. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected
to average 125.8 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels from last month, but down
1.3 bushels from 1996. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is
forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month. Yield prospects
increased in Illinois. Forecasted yield in Indiana, Wisconsin, and Nebraska
decreased. Minnesota, Iowa, and Ohio yields remained unchanged.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.72 billion bushels, down slightly from the
September 1 forecast, but 14 percent above the 1996 production. The yield is
forecast at 39.0 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below the September 1 forecast,
but 1.4 bushels above the 1996 final yield. Of the eight major producing
states, the forecasted yield decreased in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. The
yield forecast remained unchanged in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and
Ohio. As of October 5, 37 percent of the crop had been harvested in the

19 major producing states.

All cotton: Production is forecast at 18.4 million bales, down 8,000 bales from
August and down 3 percent from 1996. This is the fourth largest
crop on record. Yield is expected to average 658 pounds per acre, down
49 pounds from last year. The Delta States production increased 170,000 bales
from the previous forecast, while the Southeastern States had a 180,000 bale
reduction from September. Dry conditions continued in the Carolinas and
Georgia, reducing crop potential. Mississippi’s production was increased
60,000 bales from last month.

Cr Pr 2-2 (10-97)


Grape production in New York is forecast at 155,000 tons, unchanged from August
but down 18 percent from last year. Harvest is in full swing. Cool weather
during the early summer slowed crop development by one to two weeks. The
Concord crop is yielding less than last year, but the Niagara crop is expected
to be better. Pennsylvania's production is forecast at 65,000 tons, unchanged
from August but down 22 percent from last year. Growing conditions were
unfavorable during the cold, wet spring, and fruit maturity has been delayed.

Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 1997-98 U.S. grapefruit crop is
2.82 million tons, down 2 percent from last season but 4 percent
larger than the 1995-96 season.

The October 1 Florida all grapefruit crop is forecast at 54.0 million boxes
(2.30 million tons), 3 percent less than last year but 3 percent more than the
1995-96 crop. Fewer bearing trees and less fruit per tree than last year
contributed to the lower production. The white seedless grapefruit forecast is
23.0 million boxes (978 million tons), 2 percent below last season. The colored
seedless forecast is 30.5 million boxes (1.30 million tons), down 3 percent from
a year ago. The seedy grapefruit crop is expected to total 500,000 boxes
(21,000 tons), the smallest amount of this variety ever recorded.

California’s October 1 forecast of grapefruit production is 9.00 million boxes
(302,000 tons), 10 percent more than last year and 11 percent more than two
years ago. Weather conditions have been generally good to date. Fruit set
appears better than last year. Temperatures have been seasonal, and the crop is
progressing on schedule. Production in Texas is expected to be 5.00 million
boxes (200,000 tons), down 6 percent from the 1996-97 season. Smaller fruit
sizes than a year ago contributed to the decline. Arizona's 1997-98 production
of grapefruit is forecast at 800,000 boxes (27,000 tons), 11 percent fewer boxes
than the 1996-97 crop. Fewer trees than a year ago contributed to the lower
production.

Lemons: The 1997-98 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 935,000 tons, 9 percent
more than last year but 6 percent less than the 1995-96 crop.

California production is forecast at 22.0 million boxes (836,000 tons),

10 percent more than last year and 5 percent more than two seasons ago.
Quality in the Central valley and the South Coast area has been good to fair.
Defects include wind scar, sunburn, and flatsides. The Arizona lemon crop is
forecast at 2.60 million boxes (99,000 tons), the same as last year but down
49 percent from two seasons ago. Higher quality fruit, with less scarring, is
expected for this year’s crop.

Tangelos: The 1997-98 Florida tangelo crop is forecast at 3.30 million boxes

(149,000 tons), 16 percent less than last season’s crop but 35
percent higher than the 1995-96 season. Although fruit size is larger than last
year, a decrease in the number of trees and number of fruit per tree caused the
smaller crop.

Temples: Florida’s 1997-98 temple production is forecast at 2.30 million boxes

(104,000 tons), down 4 percent from last year but 7 percent higher
than the 1995-96 season. Fruit sizes are larger this year, but fewer bearing
trees and fruit per tree have resulted in decreased overall production.

Tangerines: The 1997-98 U.s. tangerine crop is forecast at 370,000 tons, down
11 percent from last year’s crop but up 6 percent from the 1995-96
production. Florida’s tangerine forecast is 5.50 million boxes (261,000 tons),

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-12 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Production

Area Harvested

--- 1,000 Bushels ---

AL : 280 260 82.0 95.0 95.0 22,960 24,700
AZ 1/ : 40 45 175.0 175.0 175.0 7,000 7,875
aR 1/ t 230 170 125.0 110.0 1210.0 28,750 18,700
CA : 220 260 160.0 165.0 180.0 35,200 46,800
co H 940 1,030 142.0 148.0 148.0 133,480 152,440
CT 2/ :

DE : 150 146 143.0 100.0 110.0 21,450 16,060
FL 1/ : 112 80 88.0 100.0 100.0 9,856 8,000
GA : 525 500 95.0 110.0 110.0 49,875 55,000
Ip 1/ 5 40 40 135.0 145.0 145.0 5,400 5,800
Ib : 10,800 11,000 136.0 127.0 129.0 1,468,800 1,419,000
IN : 5,450 5,850 123.0 122.0 120.0 670,350 702,000
IA : 12,450 21,950 138.0 140.0 140.0 1,718,100 1,673,000
KS : 2,350 2,700 152.0 130.0 135.0 357,200 364,500
KY : 1,200 1,220 124.0 108.0 110.0 148,800 134,200
LA 1/ 3 523 490 125.0 115.0 115.0 65,375 56,350
ME 2/ 3

MD : 465 450 139.0 80.0 75.0 64,635 33,750
MA 2/ :

MI : 2,300 2,300 94.0 110.0 113.0 216,200 259,900
MN > 6,950 6,450 125.0 130.0 130.0 868,750 838,500
MS 1/ : 605 470 102.0 105.0 105.0 61,710 49,350
MO 2 2,650 2,850 134.0 112.0 120.0 355,100 342,000
MT 1/ : 15 15 137.0 130.0 130.0 2,055 1,950
NE : 8,300 8,800 143.0 133.0 132.0 1,186,900 1,161,600
NH 2/0:

No 1/ : 94 102 126.0 95.0 95.0 11,844 9,690
NM 1/ 2 84 85 175.0 170.0 170.0 14,700 14,450
NY 3 630 660 107.0 116.0 116.0 67,410 76,560
NC 3 900 900 95.0 85.0 85.0 85,500 76,500
ND : 720 650 91.0 95.0 95.0 65,520 61,750
OH : 2,750 3,450 111.0 130.0 130.0 305,250 448,500
OK 1/ : 170 180 145.0 150.0 150.0 24,650 27,000
OR 1/ : 33 20 165.0 185.0 185.0 5,445 3,700
PA + 1,070 1,120 119.0 85.0 85.0 127,330 35,200
RI 2/ 3

sc : 380 335 79.0 100.0 100.0 30,020 33,500
sD > 3,700 3,350 100.0 100.0 100.0 370,000 335,000
TN : 680 650 116.0 105.0 105.0 78,880 68,250
TX : 1,800 1,800 112.0 135.0 135.0 201,600 243,000
UT 1/ 3 21 21 130.0 125.0 125.0 2,730 2,625
VT 2/ 3

VA : 310 340 126.0 83.0 83.0 39,060 28,220
WA 1/ : 120 110 185.0 190.0 190.0 22,200 20,900
wv 1/ : 40 45 105.0 95.0 95.0 4,200 4,275
Wr : 3,000 3,100 121.0 126.0 124.0 333,000 384,400
wy 1/ 3 50 55 123.0 122.0 122.0 6,150 6,710

125.8 9,293,435 9,311,705

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-12 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States, 1996-97
(Metric Units)

: Metric Tons

Oats : 2.07 2.17 2,253,780 2,556,140
Barley 3 3.15 3.14 8,616,460 8,153,300
All Wheat 3 2.44 2.67 62,191,130 68,761,480

Winter : 2.50 3.03 40,198,930 51,236,220

Durum : 2.20 1.87 3,159,450 2,345,790

Other Spring : 2.36 2.01 18,832,750 15,179,470
Rye 2 1.63 1.64 229,020 226,380
Potatoes :

Winter 2/ : 25.29 22.74 148,460 141,700

Spring : 27.92 27.99 1,016,820 975,130

Summer 3 29.23 29.33 884,820 783,400

Fall : 40.77 20,567,510

Total 2/ : 39.19 22,617,610
Hops 3 1.90 1.88 34,010 33,490
Ginger Root (HI) Hy 53.25 49.91 4,260 5,490
Peaches : 939,070 1,199,250
Pears 3 744,570 925,100
Sweet Cherries : 139,980 173,500
Tart Cherries 3 122,610 109., 860
Apricots Hy 72,390 119,750
Olives (CA) 3 150,590 86,180
Dried Prunes (CA) : 199,580 195,040
Prunes and Plums 2

(Exel CA) 3 18,140 25,760
Almonds (CA) : 231,330 308,440
Walnuts : 188,690 208,650

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-11 NASS, USDA


Tennessee’s acreage was rated good to excellent. During September, this
region’s weather had brief periods of cool temperatures but a ten day period of
really warm weather helped the crop develop. All States in this region lagged
behind the normal harvest pace. Data from objective yield surveys show large
boll counts for Arkansas rank fourth and Mississippi at the highest level since
1987. Louisiana‘s large bolls are the second lowest during this time period.
Early season boll weight data indicate Arkansas weights are the second lowest
during the past 10 years, Mississippi ranks sixth, and Louisiana weights are the
lowest.

About three-fourths of Arizona's crop was in good to excellent condition and
harvest was 6 points ahead of the average pace, at 30 percent, on October 5.
Tropical storm Nora entered into western Arizona with wind and rain, but most of
the crop had been harvested which limited damage. California producers applied
growth regulators during the month and limited harvest began in the Desert
areas. In late September, harvest gained momentum in the northern part of the
San Joaquin Valley and harvest was 15 percent complete in early October.
Eighty-five percent of the acreage was in good to excellent condition. October 1]
cotton objective yield counts show California large boll numbers as the lowest
since 1987, but boll weights rank fifth in the past 10 years.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina), the majority of the crop was in fair to good condition on October 5.
About $0 percent of the acreage in each of these States was rated as fair to
good. All of these States were behind the average harvest progress as boll
opening also lagged behind the normal pace in each State. The dry conditions in
Georgia during the month caused some boil shedding. Producers applied
defoliants and began harvest in mid-September in Georgia, but heavy rains the
last week of September delayed harvest.

American-Pima production is forecast at 546,000 bales, up 2,000 bales from
September's forecast and up 3 percent from 1996's output. Yield is indicated at
1,053 pounds per harvested acre, up 62 pounds from last year. Arizona's crop
was increased 2,000 bales from last month, as favorable conditions caused a
slight increase in potential. In California, defoliation began in the southern
San Joaquin Valley by early September. Limited harvest on the earliest planted
fields began in late September. New Mexico's crop development was delayed due
to cool weather during and after planting and remains about two weeks behind the
normal development pace.

All cotton ginnings totaled 1,295,350 running bales prior to October 1, compared
with 2,145,650 running bales ginned to the same date last year and
2,454,650 running bales in 1995.

All Hay: Production for 1997 is forecast at 152 million tons, down 1 percent

from the August forecast but up 2 percent from 1996. Area harvested
and to be harvested for alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures and other hay was unchanged
from August at 60.8 million acres, down slightly from the previous year. All
hay yields are forecast at 2.50 tons per acre, down slightly from August but up
0.05 tons from the previous year.

Expected production declines from August in Texas, Nebraska, Wisconsin,
Minnesota, and Kentucky more than offset expected increases in California, South
Dakota, Kansas, and Montana. Below normal precipitation and above normal
temperatures during the late summer months were the main reasons given for the
drop in expected yields from the previous forecast.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: U.S. production is forecast at 78.2 million tons,
up slightly from the August forecast but down
2 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 3.32 tons per acre,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-8 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ he crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year the completion of harvest the following year.

2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges~AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-~AZ & CA-67,
FL~85, TX~80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;
tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95,

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and
midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX,

4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

5/ Excludes economic abandonment in 1995~96 of 3,000,000 boxes of Colored
Seedless; in 1996-97 of 3,000,000 boxes of White Seedless and
3,000,000 boxes of Colored Seedless,

.
U.S. Orange Production
Million Tons

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0 +

8.0

6.0

40
Up 12

% from last season

Record large crop
USDA-NASS 10-10-97

crop

Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1997 A-32 NASS, USDA


13 percent less than the previous season's crop. Although the number of bearing
trees and size of fruit are up this season, fewer fruit per tree is resulting in
a smaller crop.

California tangerine production is 2.40 million boxes (90,000 tons), 8 percent
lower than the previous two seasons. The crop is maturing well with average
fruit size. Picking should begin by late October. Arizona‘s tangerine forecast
is 500,000 boxes (19,000 tons), down 9 percent from last season and down

50 percent from the 1995-96 season.

K-Early Citrus: Production of K-Early Citrus Fruit in Florida is expected to

total 130,000 boxes (6,000 tons), 13 percent lower than last
season and 19 percent less than the 1995-96 production. Fewer trees and fewer
fruit per tree led to the decreased production.

Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus belt had normal rains early in September, but

then most areas turned very dry. Irrigating was necessary on
caretakers’ properties. The dry conditions prevailed until September 26 and
27 when a low pressure weather system covered Florida's citrus belt. From 4 to
14 inches of rain fell in the two-day period.

New crop fruit is in very good condition and maturity is somewhat advanced for
this time of year. Fresh fruit packing houses packed Navels, Ambersweet and
Hamlin oranges, Fallglo and Robinson tangerines, Satsumas, and K-Earlys during
September. There were two processing plants open to receive packing house
eliminations. Caretakers have been active cutting cover crops, spraying,
fertilizing, herbiciding, and pushing and burning dead or abandoned trees.

Texas Citrus: Fruit set was good this season, but high temperatures have kept

fruit smaller than last year. Shortage of irrigation water is a
major concern to most growers. Harvesting is expected to start soon in the Rio
Grande Valley.

California Citrus: The Valencia harvest was almost complete by the end of

September. New crop Navels were treated for red scale, and
Gibberellic acid was applied to delay fruit drop and maturity. New crop lemon
harvest began in the Imperial Valley area by the end of the month. Grapefruit
were sizing well.

California Fruits and Nuts: The almond harvest peaked and was almost complete

by the end of September. Walnut harvest began the
first week of September and pistachios started the following week. By the end
of the month most of the raisin grape trays had been either rolled or picked up.
Mid-September scattered rains and higher humidity brought concerns of bunch rot
on table and wine grapes in the Central Valley and Sonoma County. Apple picking
remained active as higher elevation Red and Golden Delicious apple growers began
harvesting during the middle of September. Harvest of Asian pears, persimmons,
figs, olives, and pomegranates continued. Late season peach, plum, and
nectarine harvests were almost complete.

Apples: The final forecast of the 1997 apple crop stands at 10.4 billion

pounds, down 2 percent from the August i forecast but 1 percent above
last year's production. Increased production prospects in the Eastern States
since August were not enough to offset reduced prospects in the Central and
Western States.

The Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, and
WV) expect to produce 2.51 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the August 1

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B~13 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1995-96, 1996-97 and Forecasted October 1, 1997 1/

Utilized Production
Ton Equivalent

1995-96 1996-97 1997-98

- 1,000 Boxes 2/ -

Oranges :
Early Mid & :
Navel 3/ :
AZ 2 700 400 450 27 15 17
cA 4/ : 38,000 40,000 44,000 1,426 1,500 1,650
FL : 121,200 134,200 146,000 5,454 6,039 6,570
TX 3 830 1,300 1,400 35 55 60
us : 160,736 175,900 191,850 6,942 7,609 8,297
Valencia :
AZ : 950 600 550 36 23 21
CA > 20,000 28,000 30,000 750 1,050 1,125
FL : 82,100 92,000 108,000 3,695 4,140 4,860
TX : 110 120 150 4 5 6
US : 103,160 120,720 138,700 4,485 5,218 6,012
All :
AZ 3 1,650 1,000 1,000 63 38 38
CA : 58,000 68,000 74,000 2,176 2,550 2,775
FL : 203,300 226,200 254,000 9,149 10,179 11,430
TX : 940 1,420 1,550 39 60 66
US : 263,890 296,620 330,550 11,427 12,827 14,309
Temples H
FL : 2,150 2,400 2,300 97 108 104
Grapefruit :
White Seedless
FL 5/ : 23,200 23,500 23,000 986 999 978
Colored Seedless :
FL 5/ : 28,100 31,400 30,500 1,194 1,334 1,296
Other :
FL : 1,050 900 500 45 38 21
All :
AZ 2 1,200 900 800 40 30 27
CA 3 8,100 8,200 9,000 2714 275 302
FL 5/ > 52,350 55,800 54,000 2,225 2,371 2,295
TX : 4,550 5,300 5,000 182 212 200
US : 66,200 70,200 68,800 2,718 2,888 2,824
Tangerines :
AZ z 1,000 550 500 38 21 19
CA 3 2,600 2,600 2,400 98 98 90
FL 3 4,500 6,300 5,500 213 299 261
US 3 8,100 9,450 8,400 349 418 370
Lemons :
AZ z 5,100 2,600 2,600 194 99 99
CA : 21,000 20,000 22,000 798 760 836
US : 26,100 22,600 24,600 992 859 935
Tangelos :
FL 3 2,450 3,950 3,300 110 178 149
K-Early Citrus :
FL 3 160 150 130 7 7 6
See footnotes at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1997 A-31 NASS, USDA



Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested,
United States, 1996 and Forecasted October 1, 1997
(Metric Units)

Hectares

Corn : 32,167,590 32,467,060 29,601,860 29,966,890
Sorghum : 5,337,050 4,155,360 4,816,220 3,849,410
Rice : 1,140,820 1,240,370 1,132,730 1,229,040
Soybeans 2/ : 25,983,120 28,672,290 25,660,990 28,253,840
Peanuts : 567,170 568,180 558,470 560,290
Sunflower 2/ : 1,034,390 1,181,690 1,011,320 1,135,960
All Cotton : 5,922,030 5,627,210 5,207,590 5,437,620
Upland : 5,817,620 5,526,040 5,104,030 5,336,850
Amer-Pima H 104,410 101,170 103,560 100,770
All Hay 3 24,697,830 24,607,980
Alfalfa : 9,830,320 9,532,880
All Other : 14,867,500 15,075,110
Dry Edible Beans : 733,700 774,410 695,140 705,420
Dry Edible Peas 2/ 3 87,370 118,410 82,920 111,130
Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : 3,480 2,470 2,950 2,190
Lentils 2/ 3 59,570 70,420 56,660 66,370
Tobacco 3 296,510 321,630
Sugarbeets 3 553,780 592,790 535,530 579,920
Sugarcane for H
Sugar and Seed 2 359,730 370,090

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-3 NASS, USDA


All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Area Harvested Production

1,000 Tons -

2.40 1,512 1,752 1,800

3.50 105 67 123

2.20 1,948 2,250 2,530
cA 3 510 520 2.80 3.00 1,855 1,428 1,560
co : 580 620 1.80 1.90 918 1,044 1,178
cT 2/ : 65 50 1.90 1.60 110 124 80
DE 2/ : 8 8 4.00 2.70 16 32 22
FL 1/ : 240 230 2.60 3.10 575 624 713
GA l/ : 600 600 2.80 2.80 1,500 1,680 1,680
ID : 280 300 2.00 2.20 570 560 660
IL : 400 420 2.20 2.40 1,118 880 1,008
IN t 300 325 2.20 2.50 1,120 660 813
IA Fy 500 450 2.00 2.30 805 1,000 1,035
KS : 1,700 1,750 2.10 1.80 3,325 3,570 3,150
KY : 2,100 2,100 2.20 2.10 4,620 4,620 4,410
LA 1/ : 310 330 2.70 2.70 744 837 891
ME 2/ : 175 150 1.75 1.80 389 306 270
MD 2/ : 160 160 2.60 2.20 315 416 352
MA 2/ : 80 85 2.00 1.80 144 160 153
MI : 350 350 2.20 2.20 720 770 770
MN 3 750 1,000 1.90 1.80 1,955 1,425 1,800
MS I/ : 800 750 2.50 2.60 1,668 2,000 1,950
MO : 3,200 3,000 1.75 1.95 5,558 5,600 5,850
MT : 900 850 1.50 1.70 1,360 1,350 1,445
NE > 1,850 1,850 1.30 1.20 2,340 2,405 2,220
NV 2/ 250 250 1.70 1.70 425 425 425
NH 2/ : 5S 45 1.70 1.60 1210 94 72
NJ 2/ : 95 100 1.90 1.80 180 181 180
NM 2/ : 100 100 2.00 1.90 190 200 190
NY : 870 890 2.00 2.00 1,758 1,740 1,780
NC 3 525 515 2.10 2.20 1,224 1,103 1,133
ND : 1,200 1,100 1.40 1.20 2,015 1,680 1,320
OH : 500 650 2.60 2.70 1,375 1,300 1,755
OK : 2,300 2,230 1.60 1.60 2,730 3,680 3,568
OR 3 610 615 2.00 2.50 1,365 1,220 1,537
PA : 1,130 1,130 2.00 1.30 2,147 2,260 1,469
RI 2/ : 6 8 2.50 2.00 10 15 16
sc l/ : 280 300 2.00 2.40 720 560 720
sD > 1,800 1,800 1.50 1.30 2,550 2,700 2,340
TN : 1,750 1,650 2.10 2.10 3,740 3,675 3,465
TX : 4,200 4,700 1.70 2.40 7,560 7,140 11,280
UT 2/ : 160 155 2.10 2.20 300 336 341
vt 2/  : 185 175 2.00 1.60 359 370 280
VA : 1,150 1,120 2.20 1.80 2,109 2,530 2,016
WA : 310 300 2.70 3.00 728 837 900
wv : 530 525 1.80 1.80 936 954 945
wr z 400 400 2.00 2.30 840 800 920
wy z 600 660 1.20 1.30 990 720 858
US :

36,738 37,251 1.91 1.99 69,651 70,080

1/ Includes alfalfa hay.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-22 NASS, USDA


September Weather Summary: Major crop areas of the Midwest escaped the month
without a significant freeze, although frost dotted
the northwestern Corn Belt on September 21. Three days later, frost was
scattered across areas from Lower Michigan into the Northeast. Warm,
drier-than-normal weather in the western Corn Belt promoted crop development,
but cool conditions in the eastern Corn Belt hindered crop progress. Meanwhile,
the Southeast received significant relief from a 2-month dry spell during a
late-month storm, but dryness persisted in many areas from Texas to the Delta.
The same storm produced excessive rainfall in west-central Peninsular Florida,
jut began to dent moisture deficits that had been accumulating in coastal Texas
since June. The tropical Atlantic remained uncharacteristically quiet during
September. Hurricane Erika, whose fury remained mostly at sea, was the only
named storm during the month. The last time only one tropical~storm strength
system formed in September was 1946, and the previous occurrence of only one
formation in August-September was in 1929. In contrast, the Southwest endured a
tropical-storm strike (Nora on September 25) for only the fourth time on record.
Farther north, the autumn rainy season began quickly across the Pacific
Northwest. Meanwhile, the central Plains received beneficial moisture for
winter wheat establishment, even though monthly temperatures averaged 1 to
3 degrees F above normal. Dry weather prevailed on the northern Plains,
however, where monthly departures ranged from +2 to +6 degrees F. Temperatures
averaged as much as 3 degrees F below normal in the eastern Great Lakes States.
In California, Eureka opened the month in the midst of a record-setting 14-day
string (August 21 to September 3) of 70-degree maxima, fueled by unusually high
sea-surface temperatures. Except for a few days, warm weather also prevailed
throughout the Western and Central States. Late in the month, temperatures in
the San Francisco Bay region soared to the highest levels of the year to date at
locations such as Santa Rosa {98 degrees F on September 24) and downtown San
Francisco(97 degrees F on September 23). In Arizona, Tucson's average
temperature of 84.2 degrees F was 3.8 degrees above normal and their third-
highest September value on record. On September 9, Austin, TX recorded
100 degrees F, their first triple-digit heat of the year. Midland, TX noted
101 degrees F on September 17. A day later in Kansas, Wichita's high of
100 degrees F represented their first triple-digit heat since July 1 and second
such day of the year. Several long-term climate anomalies persisted in
September. In Florida, Miami Beach received record rainfall (58.16 inches)
during the first 9 months of the year. Nearby Miami received 12.44 inches
(259% of normal) during September. Farther west, several locations in Oregon
posted record water-year (October 1 - September 30) precipitation, including
Astoria (101.19 inches, or 152% of normal), Eugene (79.50 inches; 161%), Salem
(61.27 inches; 156%), and Portland (58.95 inches; 162%). Astoria also posted a
monthly record rainfall of 7.27 inches, boosted by a September daily-record
total of 2.67 inches on the 16th. In Washington, water-year totals wound up at
131% of normal at both Quillayute (137.76 inches) and the Paradise Ranger
Station (150.87 inches). In Utah, water-~year precipitation records were
established in Kanab(28.54 inches; 215%} and Trenton (30.65 inches; 165%).
Tropical Storm Nora's strike near Yuma, AZ on September 25 marked the first such
occurrence since Kathleen's arrival on September 10, 1976. Kathleen, with a
track similar to Nora's, produced the strongest sustained winds (57 mph in Yuma)
in the United States associated with an eastern Pacific tropical system. The
highest U.S. sustained winds attributed to Nora, also at Yuma, were clocked at
40 mph, with gusts to 54 mph. Damaging winds occurred as far north as the
higher elevations of southern Utah. Other tropical storms to reach the
Southwest were Joanne, which hit Arizona in October 1972, and an unnamed
system--the only tropical storm on record to strike coastal California~-in
September 1939. Nora weakened quickly while traversing the lower Colorado River
Basin, but produced 5.75 inches in Bagdad, AZ and 4.57 inches atop Mt. Laguna,
CA. The storm also ended Los Angeles' record-setting dry spell at 219 days. A
few days earlier, on September 15, remnant moisture from Hurricane Linda,
formerly the strongest eastern Pacific Hurricane on record (185 mph), ended San
Diego's record-tying dry spell at 164 days. In Las Vegas, Nv, the combination
of monsoonal moisture and Nora's rains resulted in a monthly rainfall of
2.06 inches, second only to a 3.39-inch total in September 1939. On September
26-27, rainfall locally topped 14 inches near Tampa, FL. Two-day totals reached
14.50 inches in Pinellas Park, 13.05 inches in Ruskin, and 9.74 inches in Tampa.
Tampa's 24-hour total of 8.45 inches was their greatest on record for September
and third highest ever. Coastal Texas also netted heavy rain, primarily from
September 19-24, including 12.53 inches in Palacios and 4.43 inches in
Brownsville. Significant rain also dampened the central Plains, providing

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-3 NASS, USDA


moisture for newly planted winter wheat, and the Southeast, boosting topsoil
moisture. Little rain reached the Delta, however, leaving New Orleans, LA with
a September rainfall of 0.81 inches, their third driest on record. New Orleans’
August-September total of 3.06 inches was their driest such period since 1899.
In Texas, only 0.04 inches fell in Abilene. Dry spots also lingered or
developed in the Middle Atlantic and Northeastern States. In Connecticut,
Hartford's total of 0.98 inches was their sixth-lowest September rainfall.
Richmond, VA received only 0.84 inches during the month. Another dry spot was
the northern Plains, where monthly rainfall included 0.16 inches in Dickinson,
ND and 0.23 inches in Great Falls, MT. From September 4-8, more than

125 daily-record lows were reported across the Midwest and Southeast, but
scattered frost was confined to areas from the northern Red River Valley to
Lower Michigan. The growing season ended across parts of the northern Plains on
September 19-20, but only scattered frost dotted the upper Midwest on September
21. Hettinger, ND reported 21 degrees F on the 20th; Sioux City, IA notched a
daily~record low of 32 degrees F a day later. On September 24, Lansing, MI
recorded 32 degrees F. The chilly episodes had little impact on Corn Beit
crops, which matured under generally favorable conditions.

General Crop Comments: Above-normal temperatures in the central and western

United States provided favorable weather for crop
maturation in September. Warm, sunny weather in the western Corn Belt pushed
corn and soybeans to maturity, especially later in the month. Although
below-normal temperatures kept progress behind normal in the eastern Corn Belt,
dry weather allowed crops to mature. Late-month frost caused little or no
damage in the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeastern States. Mid-month
showers in the Corn belt and late-month rains in the Southeast may have
benefited late-planted soybeans. Harvest was underway later in the month, but
progressed behind the normal pace. End-of-month precipitation slowed harvest in
the southern Plains and Southeast.

Cotton progress was ahead of normal in the western cotton~producing States, but
behind normal farther east. In the Southeast, dry soils continued to stress
fields until late-month storms brought relief. At the end of the month,
Tropical Storm Nora caused some damage to fields in western Arizona, but overall
damage was less than expected. The storm slowed defoliation activity in
southern California, but harvest activities continued farther north.

Hot, dry weather stressed the peanut acreage for most of September until rains
at the end of the month improved soil moisture supplies. Rice harvest
progressed well ahead of average in California, but behind the normal pace
elsewhere. Sorghum harvest gained momentum under clear, sunny skies until
late-month rains fell and slowed activity in most of the major sorghum producing
States. Very warm, dry weather allowed spring small grain harvest to finish
ahead of the average pace, especially in Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota.

Planting of the 1998 winter wheat crop started slowly, then gained momentum
toward the end of the month. Early on, Washington growers were delayed by
showers and a later-than~normal harvest, but seeding progressed rapidly under
clear skies the second half of the month. Grasshoppers delayed planting in
Montana and Nebraska as farmers took preventative measures to control the
insects. Mid-month hot, dry weather in the central and southern Plains allowed
farmers to make good planting progress. Late-month rainfall slowed planting in
the central and southern Plains, but replenished dry soils.

Corn for Grain: Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million
acres, unchanged from last month, but up 1 percent from 1996.
The October 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate an ear count slightly below
1996, but above the five-year average for the seven objective yield States
(Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The record
level ears per acre was set in 1996. As of October 5, 82 percent of the acreage
in the 17 major States was mature. This compares with 77 percent for 1996 and
79 percent for the five-year average. Fifteen percent of the corn had been
harvested, compared to 14 percent last year and the five-year average of
16 percent. Corn acreage rated in the fair to good condition totaled 77 percent
compared to 74 percent for a year ago. However, corn rated in excellent
condition was 14 percent compared to 17 percent for last year. As of the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-4 NASS, USDA


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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-19 NASS, USDA



Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield,
and United States,

1996 and Forecasted October 1,

and Production by Class, Type,

State,

1997 (continued)

Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air-cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt
KY
TN
US
Type 36, Green River
Belt
KY
Type 37, VA Sun-cured
Belt
VA :
Total 35-37 $
Class 4, Cigar Filler :
Type 41, PA Seedleaf :
PA 2
Class 5, Cigar Binder :

Class 5A, CT Valley
Binder $
Type 51, CT Valley :

Broadleaf :
cT 3
MA
US

Class 5B, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI:

Type 55, Northern WI:
wi :

Total 54-55 3

Total 51-55 3
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:
Type 61, CT Valley

Shade-grown

cT

MA

us
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61

All Tobacco

2,100
480
2,580

1,200

70
3,850

4,600

1,220
410
1,630

1,900
1,000

2,900
4,530

1,040
390
1,430

10,560

732,690

2,200
490
2,690

1,200

70
3,960

4,600

1,250
670
1,920

1,900
3850

2,750
4,670

1,000
440
1,440
10,710

794,750

--- Pounds --

2,340
2,125
2,300

2,180

1,600
2,250

2,040

1,840
1,600
1,780

1,900
1,535

1,774
1,776

2,350
2,000
2,286

2,350

1,400
2,290

2,200

1,690
1,830
1,739

2,300
1,750

2,130
1,969

-~- 1,000

4,914
1,020
5,934

2,616

112
8,662

9,384

2,245
656
2,901

3,610
1,535

5,145
8,046

1,550
556
2,106
19,536

1,517,334

Pounds

5,170
980
6,150

2,820

98
3,068

9,660

2,113
1,226
3,339

4,370
1,488

5,858
9,197

1,500
616
2,116
20,973

1,646,796

Crop Production
October 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,

1996 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

(Domestic Units)

Area Harvested 1/

1,000 Acres

Corn 79,487 80,227
Sorghum : 13,188 10,268
Rice : 2,819 3,065
Soybeans 2/ : 64,205 70,850
Peanuts : 1,401.5 1,404.0
Sunflower 2/ : 2,556 2,920
All Cotton > 14,633.5 13,905.0
Upland : 14,375.5 13,655.0
Amer-Pima 2 258.0 250.0
All Hay :
Alfalfa 3
All Other z
Dry Edible Beans : 1,813.0 1,913.6
Dry Edible Peas 2/ 215.9 292.6
Austrian Winter Peas 2/ 8.6 6.1
Lentils 2/ 147.2 174.0
Tobacco
Sugarbeets 1,368.4 1,464.8

Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed

73,147
11,904
2,799
63,409
1,380.0
2,499
12,868.1
12,612.2
255.9
61,029
24,291
36,738
1,717.7
204.9
7.3
140.0
732.7
1,323.3

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie.,
2/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production
October 1997 A-4

grain, beans,

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


from a year ago is the result of increased acreage. Acreage for harvest, at
301,300 acres, is up 12 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average
1,903 pounds per acre, up 39 pounds from last month but 37 pounds below the
average for 1996.

Tobacco harvest nears completion in the Southeast, a week or two later than
normal in some areas. Weather conditions during September were mostly favorable
for harvest, but cooler temperatures at the end of September have some producers
concerned about an early frost.

Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 29.6 million tons,

an increase of 11 percent from 1996 and up 1 percent from
September. Area for harvest, at 1.43 million acres, is up 8 percent from last
year but equal to the September forecast. The average yield, at 20.7 tons per
acre, is 0.5 tons above 1996 and 0.2 tons above the yield forecasted in
September.

Unusually warm temperatures for the Red River Valley postponed stockpiling of
sugarbeets in the region and caused initial liftings to lag behind the average
pace. California sugarbeet growers experienced continued favorable growing and
harvest conditions. Farmers reported no crop damage due to heavy rainfall from
Tropical Storm Nora. Sugarbeets continued to develop favorably in the central
Plains with warm days and cool nights. Harvest began at mid-month. In
Michigan, the sugarbeet crop benefited from September rains.

Sugarcane: U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1997 is expected to

total 29.7 million tons, up 1 percent from 1996 and up fractionally
from September. The expected area for harvest, at 914,500 acres, is 3 percent
above last year. The expected harvested acreage is down 500 acres from the
September forecast. The forecasted yield, at 32.5 tons per acre, is 0.6 tons
below 1996, but up 0.1 ton from September.

Sugarcane yield in Louisiana is expected to be a little lower than last year’s
record yield. Insect pressure from the sugarcane borer was light to moderate.
Planting was ahead of schedule because of dry weather the entire month of
September. The Florida sugarcane growing area has had no major storm damage so
far this season. Florida growers were actively planting, while mills were
preparing to begin milling mid-October. In Hawaii, weather during September was
mostly dry. This allowed harvest activities to intensify and growers to make up
for lost time due to wet conditions earlier in the year. Irrigation water
supplies are still a concern in Texas as recent rains have provided only limited
relief to dry soils.

Grapes: U.S. production is estimated at 6.66 million tons, up less than

1 percent from the August 1 forecast and up 20 percent from 1996. The
Michigan and Washington forecasts increased, while New York and Pennsylvania
remained unchanged.

California’s all grape forecast, at 6.00 million tons, was carried forward from
August and is up 20 percent from last year. Of this total, 2.60 million tons
are raisin varieties, 2.70 million tons are wine varieties, and 700,000 tons are
table varieties. Picking of table varieties is active in the San Joaquin Valley
with good quality being reported. Some wine varieties are still being
harvested.

Washington’s production is forecast at 309,000 tons, up 3 percent from August
and more than double last year's freeze-damaged crop. Growing conditions
improved as the season progressed. The crop in Michigan is forecast at 65,000
tons, up 8 percent from August but unchanged from 1996.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-1i NASS, USDA


up 0.02 tons from the previous forecast and 0.05 tons above last year. Area
harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at 23.6 million acres,
down 3 percent from 1996.

Yield increases from August were common across the western half of the country,
while decreases were common in the Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan)
and the Northeast (New York, Pennsylvania). Favorable growing and harvest
conditions helped push up expected yields in four of the top five producing
States from the previous forecast. Warm, dry weather in California and adequate
water supply for irrigation has resulted in record level yields. A warm iate
summer and early fall combined with excellent moisture conditions allowed many
South Dakota producers to get an additional cutting. Declining yields from the
previous forecast were attributed to the lack of rainfall and insect damage, as
well as high humidity which caused delays in harvest.

All Other Hay: The forecast for 1997 production is 74.0 million tons, 3 percent
below the August forecast but 6 percent above the year earlier.

Despite the reduction in expected yields from August, the current forecast still

represents a record other hay production. Other hay yields are expected to

average 1.99 tons per acre, down 0.05 tons from August but up 0.08 ton from

1996. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at

37.3 million acres, up 1 percent from last year.

Dry conditions contributed to a decline in average yields from August in Texas,
Kentucky, Tennessee, and Nebraska. Expected yields increased or remained the
same as August in two-thirds of the October estimating States. Texas other hay
production is estimated at a record 11.3 million tons, down 8 percent from
August but up 58 percent over a year ago.

Dry Edible Beane: Production of dry edible beans is forecast at 29.3 million

cwt for 1997, up 7 percent from a year ago but down 5 percent
from 1995. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.74 million acres, up 1 percent
from 1996 but 8 percent below 1995. The average yield of 1,678 pounds per acre
is 86 pounds above a year ago and 56 pounds above 1995. The October 1 forecast
ef production is less than 1 percent above the August forecast. A 150-pound
reduction in yield in Michigan between August and October was offset by
increases in the yields in the other major producing states of Idaho, Minnesota,
Nebraska, and North Dakota.

Many areas experienced generally excellent growing conditions and weather for
cutting, but in Colorado and Idaho crop development and harvest are lagging last
year. Rain has delayed development in southwestern Colorado. In Idaho, growers
are coping with brown spot and harvest delays caused by hailstorms.

In North Dakota, dry weather during August and September improved the condition
of the crop from the moisture-soaked fields in July. As a result, combining is
well ahead of last year and the average. By September 28, 78 percent of the
crop was harvested compared with 65 percent last year and the 5-year average of
50 percent. A killing frost, typical for the third week of September, has not
materialized.

Wet weather in Michigan in mid-September dampened yield prospects for the bean
crop. Variable pick accounted for most of the reduction in yield from the
previous forecast, with black beans faring better than navies. The weather
improved late in September and harvest passed the half-way mark by October 1.

Harvest in Minnesota was 82 percent complete by the end of September compared
with 68 percent in 1996 and the 5-year average of 58 percent. In Nebraska,
with harvest 78 percent complete, growers reported yields varied less than usual
and quality was better than normal. Harvest in California continued on blackeye
and garbanzo beans.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-9 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans:

and United States

State

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres

AL : 345

AR 3,500
DE : 217
FL1/o: 33
GA : 390
IL : 9,850
IN : 5,360
IA : 9,450
KS : 2,000
KY : 1,180
LA : 1,080
MD : 480
MI : 1,640
MN : 5,900
MS : 1,750
MO : 4,050
NE : 3,010
NI1/ 119
Nc : 1,200
ND : 845
OH : 4,490
OK i/o: 285
PA1/ oo: 285
sc : 540

sD : 2,670

380
3,550
221
38
420

2,050

34.0
32.0
35.0
32.0
26.0
40.5
38.0

37.0

Area Harvested, Yield,
1996 and Forecasted October 1

25.0
40.0
41.0
28.0
37.0
42.0
30.0
26.0
28.0

35.0

and Production,

26.0
32.0
28.0
30.0
20.0
43.0
42.0
48.0
35.0
38.0
30.0
25.0
39.0
40.0
29.0
37.0
41.0
30.0
25.0
27.0
43.0
26.0
35.0

199

by State
7

Bushels ~

9,880
113,600

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

U.S. Soybean Production

Billion Bushels

3.00

1988 - 1997

2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40

Crop Production
October 1997

am = 1
1968 1989 19890

. = L L _
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Year

= L
1996 1997

NAS8-USDA
10-10-97

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Sunflowers: Area Planted, by Varietal Type,
State, and United States, 1996

Varietal Type

1,000 Acres

co 3 45 65 110
KS 3 235 50 285
MN : 100 50 150
NE : 23 24 47
ND 3 900 280 1,180
sD 3 640 60 780
TX 2 9 22 31
Oth Sts 3 36 17 53
us 1,988 568 2,556

Peanuts: Area Harvested, yield, and Production, by State

and United States, 1996 and Forecasted October 1, 1997 1/

Area Harvested Production

State

: 1996 : 1997 : 1996 ;--------~---------- : 1996 : 1997

1,000 Acres -- Pounds --- 1,000 Pounds
AL 2 191.0 189.0 2,300 2,000 449,805 378,000
FL 3 82.0 82.0 3,100 2,950 236,160 241,900
GA : 533.0 518.0 2,650 2,600 1,433,770 1,346,800
NM : 16.5 17.5 2,450 2,450 37,950 42,875
NC 3 125.0 121.0 2,750 2,650 367,500 320,650
OK : 81.0 78.0 2,410 2,500 2,500 195,210 195,000
sc : 10.5 10.0 3,100 3,000 3,000 32,550 30,000
TX 2 265.0 295.0 2,600 2,700 2,600 689,000 767,000
VA : 76.0 74.0 2,885 2,700 2,600 219,260 192,400
US +: 1,380.0 1,384.5 2,653 2,539 3,661,205 3,514,625

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Utilized Production, United States,
1996-97 and Forecasted 1997-98

Crop

October 1,
1997

Crop Year 1/ 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98
Bo steers 1,000 Tons ---------
Citrus Fruits

Oranges 11,427 12,827 14,309
Grapefruit 2,718 2,888 2,824
Lemons 992 859 935
Tangerines 349 418 370
Temples (FL) 97 108 104
Tangelos (FL) 110 178 149
K-Early

Citrus (FL) 7 7 6

Metric Tons

Oranges 10,366,400 11,636,460 12,980,910
Grapefruit 2,465,730 2,619,950 2,561,890
Lemons 899,930 779,270 848,220
Tangerines 3 316,610 379,200 335,660
Temples (FL) 88,000 97,980 94,350
Tangelos (FL) 99,790 161,480 135,170
K-Early

citrus (FL) 6,350 6,350 5,440

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-3 NASS, USDA


4

t

ZA!

4

_\

aN ry

pens \ Va (MOIST? /

- Sa. a a)
J 1 7 id
SEVERE yy

/

NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY ean protiricry rere

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-2 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Area Harvested

: - ---- Pounds --- -~ 1,000 Pounds --
cr : 2,260 2,250 1,679 1,606 3,524 3,795 3,613
PL : 7,500 7,700 2,680 2,450 17,676 20,100 18,865
GA : 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,000 84,000 113,620 88,000
IN : 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,150 13,601 14,972 19,135
KY : 195,700 221,100 2,021 1,982 328,581 395,542 438,260
MD : 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 11,475 10,000 12,000
MA : 800 1,110 1,515 1,659 918 1,212 1,842
MO 1/ : 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 5,468 6,021 6,355
NC : 287,800 314,000 2,035 2,178 484,599 585,542 683,900
OH : 8,000 9,500 1,580 2,000 15,015 12,640 19,000
PA : 7,800 7,600 1,983 2,021 15,685 15,464 15,360
sc : 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 105,000 117,810 121,500
TN : 54,560 57,670 2,014 1,803 92,907 109,888 103,970
VA : 48,370 51,270 2,142 2,065 81,269 103,543 105,898
weiss 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,600 2,040 3,240
WI : 2,900 2,750 1,774 2,130 6,220 5,145 5,858
us + 732,690 794,750 2,071 2,072 1,268,538 1,517,334 1,646,796

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-26 NASS, USDA


All oranges: The initial forecast of the 1997-98 U.S. all orange crop is a
record large 14.3 million tons, up 12 percent from the previous
record of 12.8 million tons set in the 1996-97 season. Florida’s all orange,
early-midseason, and Valencia crops are forecast at record high levels for the
second season in a row. Florida's all orange forecast is 254 million boxes
(11.4 million tons), 12 percent more than the 226 million boxes produced last
season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 146 million
boxes (6.57 million tons), 9 percent greater than last season. Florida’s
Valencia forecast of 108 million boxes (4.86 million tons) is 17 percent above
last season's 92.0 million boxes. California’s all orange production is
forecast at 74.0 million boxes (2.78 million tons), 9 percent more than last
season. The Navel orange forecast was unchanged from September at 44.0 million
boxes (1.65 million tons) but up 10 percent from last year's production of
40.0 million boxes. The initial California Valencia forecast of the 1997-98
season is 30.0 million boxes (1.13 million tons), 7 percent more than last year.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ): Yield for the 1997-98 season

is forecast at 1.55 gallons
per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast projects the final yield as reported
by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The final 1996-97 yield for all
fruit used in FCOJ was 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. Projected
yields for 1997-98 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in
the January Crop Production report.

— — ~— — —
This report was approved on October 10, 1997.
Acting Secretar Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Richard E. Rominaer Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1997 A-2 NASS, USDA


forecast and 6 percent above a year ago. New York apples received much needed
rains during August and September and both size and color of the apples are
reported to be good. Prospects for the North Carolina apple crop have
diminished due to spring freezes and drier than normal conditions. Some North
Carolina growers also reported hail storms that further reduced their yields.
The recent hot and dry weather in Virginia has producers concerned about fruit
size. Problems with fruit size vary by variety, with early season varieties
being the hardest hit.

Production in the Central States (AR, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN,
and WI) is forecast at 1.40 billion pounds, down 3 percent from the August 1
forecast but 32 percent above the 1996 crop. Michigan apple coloring has been
very good, but sizing has been below normal in the Grand Rapids area due to dry
conditions in June and July. Size is better in southwest Michigan where timely
rains and cool nights have boosted fruit growth. Michigan’s crop has been 7 to
10 days behind normal throughout most of the growing season.

Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, and WA) is forecast at
6.51 billion pounds, down 3 percent from the August 1 forecast and 6 percent
below last year. Harvest is in full swing in Washington. Harvest conditions
have been good with sunshine and daytime highs in the 70's to low 80's.

Pecans: The October 1 forecast for U.S. pecan production is 275 million pounds
({in-shell basis), a decrease of 6 percent from September but up

24 percent from last year’s crop of 222 million pounds. Forecasts in Georgia,

Texas, and New Mexico decreased this month. All other forecasting states

remained at September’s levels, though dry conditions were reported by most

states.

The Georgia crop is now expected to be 90.0 million pounds, down 10 percent from
both September and last year. Drought conditions during September impacted
dryland pecans the most. Rains during the last week of September were regarded
as being too late to help nut fill. Irrigated groves are in much better shape.
Aphids have also been a problem, possibly affecting the fill and contributing to
heavy defoliation, especially in non-irrigated groves.

Texas is forecast to produce a crop of 70.0 million pounds, down 7 percent from
September but 75 percent above last year’s crop. The October forecast reflects
dry conditions that mostly affected native trees, causing a higher nut drop
during the filling stage. Some insect and disease problems were also reported.
New Mexico forecasts a crop of 40.0 million pounds, off 5 percent from the
September forecast but 82 percent above last year’s reduced crop.

Hazelnut: Hazelnut production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at

40,000 tons (in-shell basis), unchanged from August’s forecast and
more than double last year’s crop of 18,500 tons. Harvest is underway in
Oregon’s Willamette Valley.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.69 million pounds for

September, i percent less than August and 11 percent lower than
September 1996. September weather conditions were variable with mostly sunny
periods mixed with passing showers.

Papaya ring spot virus continued to depress yields and shorten the life of
infected fields. Some orchards were abandoned prior to the first harvest due to
the severity of infection.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,070 acres in September, 43 percent
lower than August and 14 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area,
totaling 1,955 acres, was 16 percent lower than last month but 20 percent more
than last September.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-14 NASS, USDA


Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Crop and State

: 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1/ :
AL : 7,000 9,000 4,000
AZ 2/ : 17,000 17,000
AR 3/ 3 900 800 1,600
CA 3/ 2 2,900 1,300 2,800
FL 3/ : 600 500 700
GA 3 62,900 86,000 78,000
LA : 2,000 2,000 2,000
MS 3/ : 1,200 1,300 2,600
NM 2 45,000 22,000 40,000
NC 3/ : 1,800 425 550
OK : 2,500 500 3,000
sc 3/ 2 2,400 1,800 2,000
TX 3 47,000 30,000 50,000
US 3 175,300 172,625 204,250

Native & Seedling +
AL 3 3,000 5,000 4,000
AR 3/ 3 700 400 800
FL 3/ 3 500 1,400 1,600
GA : 13,000 14,000 12,000
KS 3/ : 500 200 3,500
LA Hy 11,000 14,000 11,000
MS 3/ a 1,000 1,300 1,400
NC 3/ : 1,500 375 450
OK : 16,500 1,500 15,000
sc 3/ : 1,100 700 1,000
Tx : 28,000 10,000 20,000
us : 76,800 48,875 70,750

All Pecans +
AL : 10,000 14,000 8,000
AZ 2/ : 17,000 17,000
AR 3/ : 1,600 1,200 2,400
CA 3/ 2 2,900 1,300 2,800
FL 3/ : 1,100 1,900 2,300
GA 3 75,000 100,000 90,000
KS 3/ : 500 200 3,500
LA : 13,000 16,000 13,000
MS 3/ : 2,200 2,600 4,000
NM : 45,000 22,000 40,000
NC 3/ : 3,300 800 1,000
OK : 19,000 2,000 18,000
sc 3/ A 3,500 2,500 3,000
TX : 75,000 40,000 70,000
Oth Sts 4/ : 15,900
us 268,000 221,500 275,000

1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.

2/ Estimates published separately beginning in 1996.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

4/ AZ, MO, and TN in 1995. No breakdown between varieties available.
Forecasts discontinued in 1996 for MO and TN.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-34 NASS, USDA


Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.00 billion pounds, 5 percent below last month,
and 7 percent below the 1996 crop. Yield for the 4-State area is expected to
average 2,499 pounds per acre, 119 pounds below last month. Fifty-three percent
of Alabama’s crop was rated in very poor to poor condition in early October, as
hot, dry conditions continued through September. Georgia’s acreage was rated at
31 percent good to excellent and 47 percent in fair condition, as unfavorable
weather continued in September. The last week of the month heavy rains occurred
in Georgia, but these may not benefit the crop. The South Carolina crop is in
much better condition, with about one-half of the acreage in good to excellent
condition. Harvest proceeded ahead of the previous year’s progress for these
States, but dry, hard soils made digging difficult in this region. The first
week of October, Alabama showed 74 percent of the acreage harvested, 34 points
above 1996. Sixty-five of Georgia's acreage was harvested, which is 22 points
more than last year and South Carolina’s harvest was 45 percent complete,

4 points ahead of last year.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 513 million pounds, down

4 percent from last month and 13 percent less than one year ago. Yield per
harvested acre in the region, at 2,631 pounds, is 100 pounds below last month.
Thirty-six percent of North Carolina’s acreage was rated in good condition and
about one-half was in fair condition. Harvest in North Carolina was 10 percent
complete, 8 points behind last year's pace. Below normal temperatures and dry
conditions, hampered crop maturity during the season in North Carolina.
Rainfall in September caused some pods to fill. In Virginia, 39 percent of the
crop was rated in good to excellent condition in early October, and harvest was
27 percent complete, compared to 50 percent at this same time last year.
Digging was also difficult in these two States as a result of dry conditions.

The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected
to total 1.00 billion pounds, down 3 percent from last month but 9 percent above
1996. Yields in the tri-state area are expected to average 2,573 pounds per
acre, 76 pounds below last month but 29 pounds above last year. The condition
of the Southwest crop is much better than other in regions, with Oklahoma
showing 63 percent in good to excellent condition and 40 percent of Texas’ crop
was rated good to excellent. The Oklahoma harvest is 7 percent behind last
year's pace, at 12 percent harvested. Texas’ acreage is 27 percent harvested
compared to 11 percent in 1996. In Texas, peanut harvest began in North Central
and late fields continued to peg in Central Texas.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.2 million acres, is unchanged
from September and is up 5 percent from last year. American-Pima

harvested acreage also remains unchanged from last month, at 249,000 acres,

3 percent below 1996.

In early October, 62 percent of Texas' acreage was in good to excellent
condition and 10 percent was rated poor to very poor. Boll opening was
three-fourths complete, 14 percent ahead of the 5-year average. In the Texas
Plains, bolls began opening rapidly during mid-September, but cool weather the
following week slowed that development. Some harvest activity began in this
area. Heavy rains slowed harvest in the Upper Coast and some fields were
showing damage as a result. The Blackland and Central harvest proceeded with
little delay. About one-fourth of the acreage was harvested on October 5,
compared to 27 percent normally harvested. Cotton objective yield data indicate
Texas' crop has the second highest count of large bolls and the fourth heaviest
boll weights since 1987.

The Delta States, (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee),
rated their cotton in mostly fair to good condition in early October. Only

38 percent of Louisiana’s crop was in good to excellent condition on October 5
and 17 percent was in poor to very poor condition. Missouri reported 44 percent
in good to excellent condition and 20 percent of their acreage was in poor
condition in early October. About one~half of the acreage in Arkansas and
Mississippi was rated in good to excellent condition and 72 percent of

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-7 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and
United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997 i/

Area Harvested

Production

State
- 1,000 Acres --

CA : 82.0 102.0 29.5 30.0 3,192 2,419 3,060
co 3 51.1 67.0 20.2 21.4 715 1,032 1,434
ID 3 184.0 196.0 24.8 25.2 4,728 4,563 4,939
MI : 130.0 160.0 15.1 19.0 2,970 1,963 3,040
MN : 438.0 445.0 18.2 17.8 7,434 7,972 7,922
MT 2 57.5 58.5 22.6 22.4 1,193 1,300 1,310
NE 3 51.2 59.7 17.8 19.5 1,186 913 1,164
NM : os) 1.6 29.8 23.5 27 38
ND : 225.3 230.0 18.7 17.5 3,929 4,213 4,025
OH 3 4.6 9 18.8 18.9 230 86 i7
OR 3 16.3 17.21 25.5 25.5 404 416 436
TX : 12.6 16.0 19.2 21.5 351 242 344
WA : 13.0 18.2 35.5 36.2 461 659
wy 56.8 61.0 18.9 20.5 1,249 1,074 1,251
Oth 2

Sts 2/3: 484

US 1,323.3 1,433.0 20.2 20.7 28,065 26,680 29,638

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted

beets in CA.
2/

Includes NM and WA prior to 1996.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed:
by State and United States,

Area Harvested, Yield,
1995-96 and Forecasted October 1,

and Production
1997

Area Harvested

Yie

1996

ld 1/

Production 1/

1,000 Acres 1,000 Tons -
FL 438.0 438.0 33.1 34.0 15,122 14,498
RI 46.0 35.0 79.21 82.0 4,070 3,639
LA 370.0 410.0 27.9 27.0 10,240 10,323
TX 34.9 31.5 28.7 27.4 1,364 1,002

Net tons.

Crop Production
October 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


U.S. Corn Production

1988 - 1997
Billion Bushels

11.00

10.10

10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00

5.00

oO 1 1 il 1 LL 1 i L 1 —
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

1996 1997

- 1,000 Acres --

-- 1,000 Bushels --
AL as: 10 9

550 540
AR : 220 150 16,280 10,800
co : 260 160 13,260 6,400
Gals: 40 40 1,640 1,840
IL : 220 150 18,480 12,300
KS : 4,600 3,550 354,200 273,350
KY d/o: 23 13 2,116 975
LA : 153 107 11,628 8,025
MS : 72 33 5,040 2,145
MO : 580 430 52,780 38,270
NE : 1,030 800 97,850 66,400
NM : 225 230 7,425 11,500
NC 1s: 10 11 570 539
OK : 490 490 28,910 27,930
sc ls; : 5 4 250 200
sD : 145 170 7,975 9,860
TTM ils: 18 15 1,620 1,275
TX : 3,800 3,150 182,400 192,150
us 11,901 9,512 802,974 664,499

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-13 NASS, USDA


Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between September 25 and October 3 to gather information on
expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, soybeans,
and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for
about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited
to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots depend on
the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are
recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the
number of ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with
similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The
five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The
plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested
and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another
plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 15,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower
reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed, considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submited their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB used the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
October 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised;

instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a
balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports,
processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1

production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical
Measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1977-1996 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average
becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not @ifferent from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 4.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the current production forecast of 9.31 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 4.2 percent or approximately 391 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 7.2 percent or approximately 670 million bushels.

Also shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 267 million bushels, ranging
from 4 million to 626 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 B-15 NASS, USDA


Index

Apples ... sees
Beans, Dry Edible ......--......05 beeen eee eee
Citrus Fruit ...... sentence eens sete rete eee eee
Corn for Grain 21... ee ee eee eee eect eee eens

Corn ~ Ears per Acre ....

Cotton .....2. eee i a a eis
Cottonseed ........... beet eee eee bbe eee eee eeee
Crop Moisture Maps ....--.-. eee eee eee eee eee weeeee
Grapes ... shee eee sete eben teeta :
Hay, All ......ee eens wee ec cane Beene reer eee wae

Hay, Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay .........

Hay, Other ..........

Hazelnuts........ eee eee eee tbe e tener ec ese eeeteeee
Lentils ......... sere ee eee weer eee eer enee tee
Papayas ........ ee eee eee te eee e eee

Peanuts ..

Peas, Austrian Winter ..... seen Secs
Peas, Dry Edible 1... .. cee eee eee eee been e eee wee
Pecans .......++. ste eee eee Sette eee eee seeeee tee
Potatoes we Py wae
Reliability Statement ...........- ee a es
Rice ........ eee ce keene teen ea tet teeseene ste e eens
Sorghum for Grain 11... eee eee cere eee poco ewer eneee
Soybeans for Beans .. eee
Sugarbeets ...-.-..-+.-- eee ee ee eens sete eee beens
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed ......... bce teens oe
Sunflowers 1... ec. cece eee eee eee beeen eee see eeee
Tobacco .. . sae see
US Summary .... tose eee eee

Crop Production
October 1997 B-17

Page

Table

A-33
A-23
A-31
A-12
A-36
A-18
A-19

A-30
A-20
A-21
A-22
A-35
A-24
A-35
A-17
A-25
A-24
A-34

B-25

A-14
A-13
A-15
A-29
A-29
A-16
A-26
A- 3

Narrative

B-13
B- 9
B-12

B- 4

B-14
B-10
B-14
B- 6
B-10
B-10
B-14
B-10
B-15
B~ 5
B- 5
B- 6
B-11
B-11
B- 6
B-10
B- 3

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Sunflowers: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Type, State,
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Varietal: Area Harvested : Yield 2 Production

: 1,000 Acres --- Pounds ---
oil :
co : 44 47 1,450 50,840 63,800
KS : 230 180 1,370 208,550 315,100
MN : 97 67 1,300 372,750 126,100
NE : 22 28 1,300 39,360 28,600
ND 7 890 1,110 1,500 1,512,500 1,335,000
SD : 633 730 1,520 1,134,900 962,160
Tx : 8 a1 900 18,000 7,200
Oth : 31 35 1,111 61,545 34,441
Sts 2
us 1/ : 1,955 2,208 1,469 3,398,445 2,872,401
Non-oil :
co : 63 33 1,000 52,320 63,000
KS : 45 36 870 74,250 39,150
MN H 48 33 1,220 82,680 58,560
NE 2 22 28 900 42,680 19,800
ND : 275 340 1,450 233,700 398,750
sD H 57 75 1,650 89,780 94,050
TX t 20 33 1,250 18,040 25,000
oth : 14 21 1,136 17,445 15,904
Sts 3
us i/ : 544 599 1,313 610,895 714,214
All :
co : 107 80 1,185 1,260 103,160 126,800 100,800
KS 3 275 216 1,288 1,350 282,800 354,250 291,600
MN : 145 100 1,274 1,000 455,430 184,660 100,000
NE 3 44 56 1,100 1,100 82,040 48,400 61,600
ND : 1,165 1,450 1,488 1,290 1,746,200 1,733,750 1,870,500
sD 2 690 805 1,531 1,500 1,224,680 1,056,210 1,207,500
TX 2 28 44 1,150 1,200 36,040 32,200 52,800
Oth z
Sts : 45 56 1,119 1,080 78,990 50,345 60,480
US 1/  : 2,499 2,807 1,435 1,334 4,009,340 3,586,615 3,745,280

1/ Estimates include all States except AK and Hi,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1997 A-16 NASS, USDA