Cr Pr 2-2 (9-04)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released September 10, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Corn Production Up Fractionally from August Forecast

Soybean Production Down 1 Percent

Cotton Production Up 4 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 11.0 billion bushels, up fractionally from last month and 8 percent above 2003. 

Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 149.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from

August and 7.2 bushels above last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. The

previous record for both was set last year when production was estimated at 10.1 billion bushels and yield was

142.2 bushels per acre. Yields are forecast at record high levels in all Corn Belt States, except Minnesota and

Wisconsin, as weather conditions have been mostly favorable throughout the growing season. However, brief

periods of freezing temperatures in the northern Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Great Plains raised concerns

about the crop being able to fully develop before a killing frost occurs.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.84 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but 17 percent

above 2003. If realized, this would be the second highest production on record. Based on conditions as of

September 1, yields are expected to average 38.5 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel from August. Below-normal

temperatures and adequate moisture across most of the Corn Belt, the Great Plains, and the Delta in August favored

the soybean crop during the critical stages of development. However, yield prospects declined in the northern tier

of States due to cool weather. A brief period of freezing temperatures slowed the development of a crop already

behind in maturity in North Dakota and Minnesota.

All cotton production is forecast at 20.9 million 480-pound bales, up 4 percent from last month and 14 percent

above last year's 18.3 million bales. Yield is expected to average 758 pounds per acre, up 31 pounds from last

month and 28 pounds from 2003. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. Compared

with August, production increased in Arizona, Arkansas, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Texas, offsetting

declines in Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. Harvested area, at 13.2 million acres, is down 1 percent from

August but up 10 percent from 2003. Conditions improved in Arkansas, California, and Texas, leading to higher

yield expectations than last month.

California Navel orange production for the 2004-05 season is forecast at a record high 46.0 million boxes

(1.73 million tons), up 21 percent from last season’s revised 38.0 million boxes (1.43 million tons) and 4 percent

above the 1989-90 season record of 44.3 million boxes (1.66 million tons). This initial forecast is based on an

objective measurement survey conducted in the California Central Valley. Fruit set is showing an increase when

compared to last season. Fruit size is highly variable but sizes overall are reported larger than last season. Fruit

quality is expected to be lower than last season due to warm temperatures.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on September 10, 2004.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Grains & Hay

Corn for Grain .......................................................................... 4

 Plant Populations Per Acre .............................................................. 24

 Ears Per Acre ........................................................................ 25

Rice, by Class .......................................................................... 6

Sorghum for Grain ...................................................................... 5

Oilseeds

Peanuts ............................................................................... 9

Soybeans .............................................................................. 8

 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet ...................................................... 26

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Cotton ................................................................................ 9

 Cumulative Boll Counts ................................................................ 27

Cottonseed ........................................................................... 11

Sugarbeets ............................................................................ 16

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed ............................................................. 16

Tobacco .............................................................................. 11

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas .............................................................................. 17

Hazelnuts ............................................................................ 17

Pistachios ............................................................................ 17

Walnuts .............................................................................. 17

Citrus Fruits 

Oranges .............................................................................. 17

Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops

Potatoes .............................................................................. 14

Crop Comments .......................................................................... 31

Crop Summary ........................................................................... 18

Information Contacts ...................................................................... 39

Reliability of Production Data in this Report ................................................... 37

Weather Maps ............................................................................ 28

Weather Summary ........................................................................ 30
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 4 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

CA

CO

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

190

350

170

890

162

285

11,050

5,390

12,000

2,500

1,080

500

410

2,090

6,650

530

2,800

7,700

61

48

440

680

1,170

3,070

190

890

215

3,850

630

1,650

330

70

2,850

248

71,139

240

300

190

930

155

280

11,550

5,300

12,200

2,900

1,140

445

440

1,950

7,100

450

2,900

7,900

72

49

450

760

1,600

3,000

175

900

265

3,950

630

1,600

330

100

2,850

276

73,377

122.0

140.0

160.0

135.0

123.0

129.0

164.0

146.0

157.0

120.0

137.0

134.0

123.0

126.0

146.0

135.0

108.0

146.0

113.0

180.0

121.0

106.0

112.0

156.0

125.0

115.0

105.0

111.0

131.0

118.0

115.0

195.0

129.0

134.8

142.2

120.0

140.0

160.0

126.0

126.0

125.0

168.0

156.0

162.0

145.0

142.0

125.0

141.0

124.0

151.0

140.0

144.0

155.0

120.0

180.0

116.0

110.0

110.0

154.0

150.0

123.0

94.0

118.0

138.0

130.0

137.0

195.0

130.0

138.3

148.9

120.0

140.0

160.0

132.0

128.0

130.0

170.0

157.0

163.0

145.0

142.0

135.0

143.0

122.0

147.0

136.0

144.0

157.0

120.0

180.0

116.0

115.0

105.0

156.0

150.0

129.0

95.0

118.0

140.0

130.0

143.0

195.0

127.0

140.3

149.4

23,180

49,000

27,200

120,150

19,926

36,765

1,812,200

786,940

1,884,000

300,000

147,960

67,000

50,430

263,340

970,900

71,550

302,400

1,124,200

6,893

8,640

53,240

72,080

131,040

478,920

23,750

102,350

22,575

427,350

82,530

194,700

37,950

13,650

367,650

33,428

10,113,887

28,800

42,000

30,400

122,760

19,840

36,400

1,963,500

832,100

1,988,600

420,500

161,880

60,075

62,920

237,900

1,043,700

61,200

417,600

1,240,300

8,640

8,820

52,200

87,400

168,000

468,000

26,250

116,100

25,175

466,100

88,200

208,000

47,190

19,500

361,950

38,710

10,960,710

 1 Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop

Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 5 NASS, USDA

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AR

CO

IL

KS

LA

MO

NE

NM

OK

SD

TX

Oth

 Sts 1

US

210

160

105

2,900

165

210

500

62

250

150

2,850

236

7,798

90

200

95

2,800

95

150

420

90

270

160

2,400

146

6,916

82.0

27.0

82.0

45.0

85.0

77.0

62.0

27.0

37.0

45.0

54.0

75.5

52.7

80.0

40.0

93.0

72.0

70.0

100.0

85.0

35.0

46.0

56.0

61.0

74.4

67.2

80.0

38.0

98.0

75.0

65.0

100.0

85.0

35.0

50.0

46.0

61.0

74.5

68.3

17,220

4,320

8,610

130,500

14,025

16,170

31,000

1,674

9,250

6,750

153,900

17,818

411,237

7,200

7,600

9,310

210,000

6,175

15,000

35,700

3,150

13,500

7,360

146,400

10,874

472,269

 1 Other States include AL, AZ, CA, DE, GA, KY, MD, MS, NC, PA, SC, TN, and VA. Individual State level estimates will be published

in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 6 NASS, USDA

Rice: Area Planted and Harvested by Class, State, and

United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 1

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2004 2 2002 2003 2004 2

Long Grain

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO

TX

US

1,350.0

7.0

530.0

255.0

190.0

205.0

2,537.0

1,300.0

7.0

435.0

235.0

175.0

180.0

2,332.0

1,410.0

7.0

520.0

235.0

195.0

220.0

2,587.0

1,340.0

7.0

525.0

253.0

182.0

205.0

2,512.0

1,290.0

7.0

430.0

234.0

170.0

179.0

2,310.0

1,400.0

7.0

515.0

233.0

193.0

215.0

2,563.0

Medium Grain

AR

CA

LA

MO

TX

US

165.0

500.0

10.0

0

1.0

676.0

165.0

460.0

20.0

1.0

1.0

647.0

160.0

550.0

15.0

1.0

2.0

728.0

162.0

495.0

10.0

0

1.0

668.0

164.0

458.0

20.0

1.0

1.0

644.0

159.0

545.0

15.0

1

2.0

722.0

Short Grain

AR

CA

US

1.0

26.0

27.0

1.0

42.0

43.0

1.0

48.0

49.0

1.0

26.0

27.0

1.0

42.0

43.0

1.0

48.0

49.0

All

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO

TX

US

1,516.0

533.0

540.0

255.0

190.0

206.0

3,240.0

1,466.0

509.0

455.0

235.0

176.0

181.0

3,022.0

1,571.0

605.0

535.0

235.0

196.0

222.0

3,364.0

1,503.0

528.0

535.0

253.0

182.0

206.0

3,207.0

1,455.0

507.0

450.0

234.0

171.0

180.0

2,997.0

1,560.0

600.0

530.0

233.0

194.0

217.0

3,334.0

 1 Sweet rice acreage and production included with short grain in 2003 and 2004, but not previous years. 2 Updated from "Acreage" released June 30, 2004.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 7 NASS, USDA

Rice: Yield and Production by Class, State, and

United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 1

Class

and

State

Yield Production

2002 2003

2004

2002 2003 2004 2

Aug 1 Sep 1

Long Grain

Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO

TX

US

6,430

6,400

5,500

6,400

6,050

7,100

6,260

6,600

6,900

5,870

6,800

6,130

6,600

6,451

86,162

448

28,875

16,192

11,011

14,555

157,243

85,140

483

25,241

15,912

10,421

11,814

149,011 162,533

Medium Grain

AR

CA

LA

MO

TX

US

6,500

8,300

5,250

0

6,100

7,815

6,500

7,750

5,780

6,300

6,600

7,366

10,530

41,085

525

0

61

52,201

10,660

35,495

1,156

63

66

47,440 55,896

Short Grain

AR

CA

US

6,000

5,600

5,615

6,000

6,300

6,293

60

1,456

1,516

60

2,646

2,706 3,302

All

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO

TX

US

6,440

8,140

5,500

6,400

6,050

7,100

6,578

6,590

7,620

5,870

6,800

6,130

6,600

6,645

6,650

7,900

5,600

6,700

6,250

6,500

6,680

6,650

7,900

5,300

6,900

6,350

6,500

6,651

96,752

42,989

29,400

16,192

11,011

14,616

210,960

95,860

38,624

26,397

15,912

10,484

11,880

199,157

103,740

47,400

28,090

16,077

12,319

14,105

221,731

 1 Sweet rice acreage and production included with short grain in 2003 and 2004, but not previous years. 2 Indicated September 1, 2004, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted

as data become available through the growing season. State estimates by class will be published in the "Crop Production 2004

Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 8 NASS, USDA

Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

160

2,890

178

180

10,250

5,350

10,550

2,480

1,240

740

430

1,990

7,400

1,430

4,940

4,490

88

138

1,400

3,030

4,280

245

375

420

4,190

1,120

180

480

1,650

27

72,321

195

3,050

207

240

9,850

5,430

10,350

2,550

1,270

950

490

1,990

7,300

1,630

4,940

4,700

96

168

1,400

3,630

4,420

290

395

450

4,140

1,140

225

490

1,640

29

73,655

36.0

38.0

36.0

33.0

36.5

38.0

32.0

23.0

43.0

34.0

37.0

27.0

31.0

39.0

29.0

40.0

34.0

35.0

30.0

29.0

38.0

26.0

41.0

28.0

27.0

41.0

28.0

34.0

28.0

36.1

33.4

33.0

36.0

38.0

29.0

44.0

45.0

42.0

34.0

41.0

30.0

38.0

33.0

40.0

34.0

36.0

46.0

36.0

36.0

30.0

31.0

40.0

27.0

42.0

25.0

33.0

37.0

31.0

36.0

36.0

39.2

39.1

35.0

39.0

41.0

30.0

44.0

45.0

40.0

37.0

41.0

31.0

38.0

31.0

36.0

37.0

38.0

45.0

40.0

33.0

32.0

26.0

40.0

32.0

43.0

26.0

33.0

39.0

31.0

36.0

33.0

38.7

38.5

5,760

109,820

6,408

5,940

374,125

203,300

337,600

57,040

53,320

25,160

15,910

53,730

229,400

55,770

143,260

179,600

2,992

4,830

42,000

87,870

162,640

6,370

15,375

11,760

113,130

45,920

5,040

16,320

46,200

975

2,417,565

6,825

118,950

8,487

7,200

433,400

244,350

414,000

94,350

52,070

29,450

18,620

61,690

262,800

60,310

187,720

211,500

3,840

5,544

44,800

94,380

176,800

9,280

16,985

11,700

136,620

44,460

6,975

17,640

54,120

1,123

2,835,989

 1 Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 9 NASS, USDA

Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and

United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2004 1 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

AL

FL

GA

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

185.0

96.0

510.0

18.0

101.0

60.0

10.0

315.0

58.0

1,353.0

190.0

125.0

545.0

18.0

101.0

37.0

19.0

275.0

34.0

1,344.0

200.0

145.0

620.0

17.0

105.0

34.0

35.0

240.0

33.0

1,429.0

180.0

86.0

505.0

18.0

100.0

57.0

8.7

280.0

57.0

1,291.7

185.0

115.0

540.0

17.0

100.0

35.0

17.0

270.0

33.0

1,312.0

195.0

135.0

610.0

16.0

105.0

32.0

33.0

235.0

32.0

1,393.0

State

Yield Production

2002 2003

2004

2002 2003 2004

Aug 1 Sep 1

Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

AL

FL

GA

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

2,110

2,300

2,600

3,000

2,100

2,800

2,200

3,100

2,100

2,571

2,750

3,000

3,450

2,700

3,200

2,800

3,400

3,000

2,900

3,159

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,000

3,200

3,000

3,100

3,300

3,100

3,198

2,800

3,100

3,300

3,000

3,200

3,200

3,100

3,300

3,100

3,188

379,800

197,800

1,313,000

54,000

210,000

159,600

19,140

868,000

119,700

3,321,040

508,750

345,000

1,863,000

45,900

320,000

98,000

57,800

810,000

95,700

4,144,150

546,000

418,500

2,013,000

48,000

336,000

102,400

102,300

775,500

99,200

4,440,900

 1 Updated from "Acreage" released on June 30, 2004.

Cotton: Area Planted by Type, State,

and United States, 2003-2004

State Upland Amer-Pima All

2003 2004 1 2003 2004 1 2003 2004 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 US

525.0

215.0

980.0

550.0

94.0

1,300.0

90.0

525.0

1,110.0

400.0

53.0

810.0

180.0

220.0

560.0

5,600.0

89.0

13,301.0

550.0

238.0

930.0

560.0

90.0

1,290.0

100.0

500.0

1,100.0

390.0

68.0

730.0

210.0

220.0

550.0

5,900.0

82.0

13,508.0

2.5

150.0

6.1

20.0

178.6

3.0

220.0

11.0

21.0

255.0

525.0

217.5

980.0

700.0

94.0

1,300.0

90.0

525.0

1,110.0

400.0

59.1

810.0

180.0

220.0

560.0

5,620.0

89.0

13,479.6

550.0

241.0

930.0

780.0

90.0

1,290.0

100.0

500.0

1,100.0

390.0

79.0

730.0

210.0

220.0

550.0

5,921.0

82.0

13,763.0

 1 Updated from the "Crop Production " released August 12, 2004.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 10 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

510.0

213.0

945.0

545.0

1,290.0

510.0

1,090.0

390.0

38.0

770.0

170.0

218.0

530.0

4,350.0

85.0

172.0

11,826.0

2.4

149.0

6.0

20.0

177.4

510.0

215.4

945.0

694.0

1,290.0

510.0

1,090.0

390.0

44.0

770.0

170.0

218.0

530.0

4,370.0

85.0

172.0

12,003.4

545.0

236.0

920.0

557.0

1,260.0

490.0

1,080.0

385.0

64.0

725.0

195.0

218.0

540.0

5,500.0

81.0

174.0

12,970.0

3.0

219.0

11.0

20.0

253.0

545.0

239.0

920.0

776.0

1,260.0

490.0

1,080.0

385.0

75.0

725.0

195.0

218.0

540.0

5,520.0

81.0

174.0

13,223.0

772

1,239

916

1,317

785

967

934

862

884

646

616

718

806

478

674

576

723

920

1,194

1,056

1,056

1,170

772

1,236

916

1,290

785

967

934

862

908

646

616

718

806

480

674

576

730

749

1,284

877

1,422

738

637

800

849

960

728

645

731

833

550

877

681

716

960

1,403

840

1,032

1,350

749

1,280

877

1,416

738

637

800

849

946

728

645

731

833

552

877

681

727

749

1,322

903

1,465

762

637

800

823

938

742

645

731

827

611

836

648

747

960

1,403

916

1,032

1,347

749

1,317

903

1,447

762

637

800

823

934

742

645

731

827

612

836

648

758

820.0

550.0

1,804.0

1,495.0

2,110.0

1,027.0

2,120.0

700.0

70.0

1,037.0

218.0

326.0

890.0

4,330.0

119.4

206.5

17,822.9

4.6

370.5

13.2

44.0

432.3

820.0

554.6

1,804.0

1,865.5

2,110.0

1,027.0

2,120.0

700.0

83.2

1,037.0

218.0

326.0

890.0

4,374.0

119.4

206.5

18,255.2

850.0

650.0

1,730.0

1,700.0

2,000.0

650.0

1,800.0

660.0

125.0

1,120.0

262.0

332.0

930.0

7,000.0

141.0

235.0

20,185.0

6.0

640.0

21.0

43.0

710.0

850.0

656.0

1,730.0

2,340.0

2,000.0

650.0

1,800.0

660.0

146.0

1,120.0

262.0

332.0

930.0

7,043.0

141.0

235.0

20,895.0

 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3 Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 11 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

State

Production

2002 2003 2004 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 6,183.9 6,664.6 7,629.8

 1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and

United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

CT

FL

GA

IN

KY

MD

MA

MO 1

NC

OH

PA

SC

TN

VA

WV 1

WI

US

2,180

4,400

27,000

4,200

111,650

1,100

1,250

1,400

159,700

5,300

3,700

30,000

31,140

25,110

1,200

1,820

411,150

2,300

4,000

24,000

4,300

113,800

1,100

1,200

1,400

159,000

5,800

4,000

27,000

31,380

31,270

1,300

1,700

413,550

1,361

2,500

2,200

1,950

2,016

1,450

1,398

2,020

1,878

1,650

2,130

2,100

2,108

1,546

1,300

2,338

1,952

1,740

2,600

1,900

2,050

2,048

1,600

1,725

2,600

2,215

1,900

2,190

2,200

2,118

2,217

1,500

2,409

2,134

3,315

11,960

53,000

7,800

222,991

1,800

1,859

3,122

347,920

9,625

6,815

59,475

71,331

64,407

1,885

3,817

871,122

2,966

11,000

59,400

8,190

225,042

1,595

1,748

2,828

299,995

8,745

7,880

63,000

65,632

38,818

1,560

4,255

802,654

4,001

10,400

45,600

8,815

233,110

1,760

2,070

3,640

352,150

11,020

8,760

59,400

66,472

69,325

1,950

4,095

882,568

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 12 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,

State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured

 Type 11, Old Belts

 NC

 VA

 US

 Type 12, Eastern NC

 Belt

 NC

 Type 13, NC Border &

 SC Belt

 NC

 SC

 US

 Type 14, GA-FL Belt

 FL

 GA

 US

 Total 11-14

Class 2, Fire-cured

 Type 21, VA Belt

 VA

 Type 22, Eastern

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 23, Western

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Total 21-23

Class 3, Air-cured

 Class 3A, Light

 Air-cured

 Type 31, Burley

 IN

 KY

 MO 1

 NC

 OH

 TN

 VA

 WV 1

 US

 Type 32, Southern MD

 Belt

 MD

 PA

 US

 Total 31-32

40,000

18,000

58,000

94,000

20,000

30,000

50,000

4,400

27,000

31,400

233,400

550

2,600

5,200

7,800

2,500

400

2,900

11,250

4,200

103,000

1,400

5,700

5,300

25,000

6,500

1,200

152,300

1,100

1,300

2,400

154,700

40,000

23,000

63,000

93,000

20,000

27,000

47,000

4,000

24,000

28,000

231,000

700

2,700

5,400

8,100

2,500

420

2,920

11,720

4,300

105,000

1,400

6,000

5,800

25,000

7,500

1,300

156,300

1,100

2,200

3,300

159,600

1,770

1,690

1,745

1,955

1,915

2,100

2,026

2,500

2,200

2,242

1,957

1,525

3,080

2,980

3,013

3,530

3,350

3,505

3,067

1,950

1,925

2,020

1,250

1,650

1,900

1,150

1,300

1,850

1,450

2,000

1,748

1,848

2,250

2,350

2,287

2,250

2,150

2,200

2,179

2,600

1,900

2,000

2,215

1,850

3,200

3,000

3,067

3,600

3,400

3,571

3,120

2,050

1,950

2,600

1,650

1,900

1,900

1,850

1,500

1,929

1,600

2,100

1,933

1,929

70,800

30,420

101,220

183,770

38,300

63,000

101,300

11,000

59,400

70,400

456,690

839

8,008

15,496

23,504

8,825

1,340

10,165

34,508

8,190

198,275

2,828

7,125

8,745

47,500

7,475

1,560

281,698

1,595

2,600

4,195

285,893

90,000

54,050

144,050

209,250

43,000

59,400

102,400

10,400

45,600

56,000

511,700

1,295

8,640

16,200

24,840

9,000

1,428

10,428

36,563

8,815

204,750

3,640

9,900

11,020

47,500

13,875

1,950

301,450

1,760

4,620

6,380

307,830

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 13 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 (continued)

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 3, Air-cured

Class 3B, Dark

 Air-cured

 Type 35, One Sucker

 Belt

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 36, Green River

 Belt

 KY

 Type 37, VA Sun-cured

 Belt

 VA

 Total 35-37

Class 4, Cigar Filler

 Type 41, PA Seedleaf

 PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder

 Class 5A, CT Valley

 Binder

 Type 51, CT Valley

 Broadleaf

 CT

 MA

 US

 Class 5B, WI Binder

 Type 54, Southern WI

 WI

 Type 55, Northern WI

 WI

 Total 54-55

 Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper

 Type 61, CT Valley

 Shade-grown

 CT

 MA

 US

All Cigar Types

 Total 41-61

All Tobacco

2,300

540

2,840

1,250

60

4,150

2,400

1,400

970

2,370

1,400

420

1,820

4,190

780

280

1,060

7,650

411,150

2,300

560

2,860

1,300

70

4,230

1,800

1,450

900

2,350

1,300

400

1,700

4,050

850

300

1,150

7,000

413,550

2,830

2,400

2,748

2,740

1,400

2,726

2,200

1,400

1,470

1,429

2,480

1,865

2,338

1,824

1,290

1,150

1,253

1,863

1,952

3,050

2,400

2,923

2,850

1,500

2,877

2,300

1,850

1,800

1,831

2,550

1,950

2,409

2,074

1,550

1,500

1,537

2,044

2,134

6,509

1,296

7,805

3,425

84

11,314

5,280

1,960

1,426

3,386

3,472

783

4,255

7,641

1,006

322

1,328

14,249

802,654

7,015

1,344

8,359

3,705

105

12,169

4,140

2,683

1,620

4,303

3,315

780

4,095

8,398

1,318

450

1,768

14,306

882,568

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 14 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 2003-2004

Seasonal

Group and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter 1

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring 1

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

Summer 2

 AL

 CA

 CO

 DE

 IL

 KS

 MD

 MO

 NJ

 NM

 TX

 VA

 Total

8.5

6.1

14.6

7.6

19.0

30.0

21.5

8.5

19.0

13.0

88.6

3.0

7.5

6.5

3.7

6.5

2.8

4.7

8.0

2.8

1.9

9.0

7.0

63.4

8.5

5.7

14.2

6.2

17.5

22.8

16.2

6.6

16.0

11.0

73.5

2.9

7.0

6.5

3.3

5.0

3.2

4.7

6.0

2.3

1.5

10.4

6.0

58.8

8.5

5.8

14.3

7.6

19.0

28.6

20.3

8.3

17.0

12.5

84.7

1.8

7.2

6.4

3.6

6.1

2.7

4.6

7.1

2.7

1.9

8.4

6.2

58.7

8.5

5.5

14.0

6.2

17.5

22.5

16.0

6.5

15.0

10.5

71.7

2.0

7.0

6.4

3.2

4.8

3.1

4.6

5.5

2.3

1.5

9.6

5.1

55.1

310

240

282

275

440

280

280

280

175

240

288

185

385

360

240

360

380

240

265

250

280

420

250

320

250

250

250

285

380

249

265

210

190

210

266

165

380

365

260

350

400

260

315

275

300

440

230

336

2,635

1,392

4,027

2,090

8,360

8,008

5,684

2,324

2,975

3,000

24,433

333

2,772

2,304

864

2,196

1,026

1,104

1,882

675

532

3,528

1,550

18,766

2,125

1,375

3,500

1,767

6,650

5,605

4,240

1,365

2,850

2,205

19,077

330

2,660

2,336

832

1,680

1,240

1,196

1,733

633

450

4,224

1,173

18,487

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 15 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 2003-2004 (continued)

Seasonal

Group and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Fall 2 3

 CA

 CO

 ID

 10 SW Co

 Other ID

 IN

 ME

 MA

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NV

 NM

 NY

 ND

 OH

 OR

 Malheur

 Other OR

 PA

 RI

 SD 4

 UT 4

 WA

 WI

 Total

US

8.3

66.3

360.0

25.0

335.0

3.8

66.0

3.0

46.0

60.0

10.7

23.5

8.3

4.0

22.2

117.0

4.5

42.8

5.8

37.0

13.0

0.6

1.0

1.0

163.0

81.0

1,106.0

1,272.6

7.7

65.0

350.0

26.0

324.0

3.4

63.5

2.6

43.0

53.0

10.7

22.0

6.7

4.0

20.0

95.0

3.7

40.0

5.3

34.7

12.0

0.5

160.0

75.0

1,037.8

1,184.3

8.3

65.7

358.0

25.0

333.0

3.7

65.5

2.7

45.5

58.0

10.6

23.2

8.0

4.0

21.7

112.0

4.3

42.6

5.8

36.8

12.5

0.6

1.0

1.0

162.0

80.0

1,090.9

1,248.6

7.7

64.8

348.0

26.0

322.0

3.2

63.0

2.5

42.0

49.0

10.6

21.5

6.7

4.0

19.7

91.0

3.6

40.0

5.3

34.7

11.0

0.5

160.0

74.0

1,022.8

1,163.6

425

360

344

465

335

250

260

265

330

385

315

420

415

400

300

245

255

493

415

505

270

285

340

335

575

410

376

367

3,528

23,652

123,180

11,625

111,555

925

17,030

716

15,015

22,330

3,339

9,744

3,320

1,600

6,510

27,440

1,097

20,991

2,407

18,584

3,375

171

340

335

93,150

32,800

410,588

457,814

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2 2003 crop revised. 3 The forecast of fall potato production will be published in the November "Crop Production". 4 Estimates discontinued in 2004.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 16 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

FL

HI

LA

TX

US

438.0

21.3

490.0

45.1

994.4

420.0

24.1

475.0

42.5

961.6

39.3

97.7

26.2

37.8

34.0

37.0

94.0

27.0

36.0

33.4

37.0

94.0

26.0

36.0

33.0

17,231

2,082

12,838

1,706

33,857

15,540

2,265

12,350

1,530

31,685

 1 Net tons.

Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 1

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

CA

CO

ID

MI

MN

MT

NE

ND

OH

OR

WA

WY

US

50.2

27.4

207.0

178.0

487.0

51.5

42.4

255.0

1.9

9.8

4.0

33.7

1,347.9

49.0

33.4

192.0

163.0

479.0

52.2

47.6

256.0

1.6

12.5

3.8

35.5

1,325.6

36.5

23.5

29.2

19.1

20.6

25.4

20.3

20.4

24.2

30.7

40.3

22.3

22.7

37.3

23.1

26.6

18.0

19.6

21.0

20.2

19.5

21.5

28.9

37.6

21.0

21.4

37.3

22.7

27.1

18.5

19.6

21.0

20.0

19.5

21.5

29.0

37.6

21.8

21.5

1,832

644

6,044

3,400

10,032

1,308

861

5,202

46

301

161

752

30,583

1,828

758

5,203

3,016

9,388

1,096

952

4,992

34

363

143

774

28,547

 1 Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA

and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 17 NASS, USDA

Oranges: Utilized Production by State and United States,

2002-03, 2003-04 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 1 2 3

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

1,000 Boxes 1,000 Boxes 1,000 Boxes 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Early Mid &

 Navel 4

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

200

42,000

112,000

1,350

155,550

270

20,000

91,000

220

111,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

300

38,000

126,000

1,420

165,720

170

14,000

116,000

230

130,400

470

52,000

242,000

1,650

296,120

46,000

8

1,575

5,040

57

6,680

10

751

4,095

9

4,865

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

12

1,426

5,670

60

7,168

6

526

5,220

10

5,762

18

1,952

10,890

70

12,930

1,725

 1 2002-03 and 2003-04 revised. Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit totals will be released September 23, 2004, in "Citrus Fruits 2004

Summary". 2 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 3 Net lbs. per box: AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85. 4 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of

tangerines in TX.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2003 2004

2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jul

Aug

2,175

2,370

1,995

2,185

1,565

1,565

1,060

1,385

3,425

3,240

2,810

2,680

 1 Utilized fresh production.

Nuts: Utilized Production by Crop, State,

and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004

Crop and State

Utilized Production

2002 2003 2004

Tons Tons Tons

Hazelnuts

 OR

Walnuts

 CA

19,500

282,000

37,900

326,000

44,000

325,000

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Pistachios 1

 CA 303,000 119,000

 1 September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004

Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 18 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,299.0

78,736.0

4,601.0

730.0

3,022.0

1,368.0

9,420.0

61,700.0

44,945.0

2,915.0

13,840.0

1,082.0

595.0

110.0

1,344.0

1.3

221.0

73,404.0

2,344.0

13,479.6

13,301.0

178.6

1,365.4

21.1

1,406.1

337.5

246.0

1,272.6

14.6

88.6

63.4

1,106.0

95.8

4,666.0

80,968.0

4,220.0

720.0

3,364.0

1,330.0

8,099.0

59,719.0

43,450.0

2,592.0

13,677.0

946.0

629.0

68.5

1,429.0

11.8

142.0

74,809.0

1,882.0

13,763.0

13,508.0

255.0

1,349.8

25.5

1,360.4

480.0

300.0

1,184.3

14.2

73.5

58.8

1,037.8

99.1

4,688.0

71,139.0

6,528.0

63,342.0

23,578.0

39,764.0

2,224.0

620.0

2,997.0

339.0

7,798.0

343.0

52,839.0

36,541.0

2,869.0

13,429.0

1,068.0

583.0

107.0

1,312.0

1.2

212.0

72,321.0

2,197.0

12,003.4

11,826.0

177.4

1,347.9

994.4

411.2

15.6

1,346.9

328.5

237.0

5.9

0.2

28.7

78.2

1,248.6

14.3

84.7

58.7

1,090.9

15.8

92.6

0.4

4,152.0

73,377.0

61,589.0

22,226.0

39,363.0

1,938.0

3,334.0

343.0

6,916.0

50,556.0

34,825.0

2,521.0

13,210.0

919.0

608.0

65.9

1,393.0

11.4

133.0

73,655.0

1,801.0

13,223.0

12,970.0

253.0

1,325.6

961.6

413.6

16.6

1,301.1

454.0

293.0

0.2

28.0

1,163.6

14.0

71.7

55.1

1,022.8

96.3

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 19 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.9

142.2

16.2

2.48

3.24

2.03

65.0

18.5

6,645

27.3

52.7

10.4

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.7

1,416

17.9

723

3,159

949

1,286

33.4

1,213

730

723

1,170

22.7

34.0

1,952

1,115

1,672

1,584

1,030

1,407

37,500

1,903

89

367

282

288

320

376

113

172

65.7

149.4

2.63

3.48

2.15

66.0

6,651

68.3

42.0

42.8

35.3

41.2

3,188

38.5

758

747

1,347

21.5

33.0

2,134

1,639

40,000

1,982

250

266

336

276,087

10,113,887

105,864

157,123

76,307

80,816

144,649

11,450

199,157

9,254

411,237

3,552

2,336,526

1,707,069

96,637

532,820

1,512,250

6,664.6

10,426

77,372

4,144,150

1,139

272,555

2,417,565

2,665,226

18,255.2

17,822.9

432.3

30,583

33,857

802,654

174

22,515

5,202

2,442

673

8,300

6,000

54,565.1

6,924

457,814

4,027

24,433

18,766

410,588

1,778

15,891

5,000

272,824

10,960,710

161,763

77,264

84,499

127,950

221,731

472,269

2,122,894

1,489,408

88,951

544,535

7,629.8

4,440,900

2,835,989

20,895.0

20,185.0

710.0

28,547

31,685

882,568

21,323

6,000

55,537.9

3,500

19,077

18,487

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 20 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges 4

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA) 5

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,424

1

801

12,374

97

420

70

8,523.9

90.0

20,000.0

7,338.9

103.0

45,900.0

2,535.0

890.0

172.0

15.7

1,090,000

19.5

172,900

303,000

282.0

1,475

2,063

1,026

11,545

106

371

59

8,613.3

97.6

22,500.0

6,572.7

118.0

42,600.0

2,519.0

928.1

181.0

16.3

1,040,000

37.7

282,100

119,000

326.0

1,260

2,148

798

12,930

45

425

63

9,365.9

95.6

6,361.4

85.0

2,598.4

908.0

70.0

24.5

1,080,000

44.0

325.0

1,507

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. 4 Orange production revised. Grapefruit and other citrus fruit revisions will be released on September 23, 2004 in "Citrus Fruits 2004

Summary". 5 September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004

Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 21 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,144,450

31,863,670

1,861,980

295,420

1,222,970

553,620

3,812,180

24,969,370

18,188,790

1,179,670

5,600,910

437,870

240,790

44,520

543,900

530

89,440

29,705,860

948,590

5,455,060

5,382,780

72,280

552,560

8,540

569,030

136,580

99,550

515,010

5,910

35,860

25,660

447,590

38,770

1,888,280

32,766,940

1,707,790

291,380

1,361,380

538,240

3,277,580

24,167,680

17,583,780

1,048,960

5,534,950

382,840

254,550

27,720

578,300

4,780

57,470

30,274,450

761,630

5,569,750

5,466,550

103,200

546,250

10,320

550,540

194,250

121,410

479,270

5,750

29,740

23,800

419,990

40,100

1,897,190

28,789,240

2,641,820

25,633,870

9,541,780

16,092,090

900,030

250,910

1,212,860

137,190

3,155,770

138,810

21,383,410

14,787,780

1,161,060

5,434,580

432,210

235,930

43,300

530,950

490

85,790

29,267,590

889,100

4,857,660

4,785,860

71,790

545,480

402,420

166,390

6,310

545,080

132,940

95,910

2,390

60

11,600

31,650

505,300

5,790

34,280

23,760

441,480

6,390

37,470

170

1,680,270

29,694,940

24,924,450

8,994,640

15,929,810

784,290

1,349,240

138,810

2,798,840

20,459,510

14,093,330

1,020,220

5,345,950

371,910

246,050

26,670

563,730

4,610

53,820

29,807,440

728,850

5,351,220

5,248,830

102,390

536,460

389,150

167,360

6,720

526,540

183,730

118,570

60

11,340

470,900

5,670

29,020

22,300

413,920

38,970

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 22 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.17

8.92

36.35

5.56

7.25

4.56

2.33

1.03

7.45

1.71

3.31

23.21

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.67

1.59

1.12

0.81

3.54

1.06

1.44

2.25

1.36

0.82

0.81

1.31

50.86

76.32

2.19

1.25

1.87

1.77

1.15

1.58

42.03

2.13

0.10

41.10

31.56

32.33

35.83

42.19

0.13

19.23

3.54

9.38

5.89

7.79

4.81

2.37

7.45

4.29

2.82

2.88

2.37

2.77

3.57

2.59

0.85

0.84

1.51

48.27

73.86

2.39

1.84

44.83

2.22

28.02

29.82

37.61

6,011,080

256,904,560

96,038,210

142,539,590

69,224,550

73,315,040

2,099,570

259,680

9,033,610

235,060

10,445,900

3,222,320

63,589,820

46,458,800

2,630,030

14,500,980

685,950

6,046,020

264,830

35,100

1,879,750

520

123,630

65,795,340

1,208,930

3,974,600

3,880,480

94,120

27,744,430

30,714,550

364,080

7,890

1,021,260

235,960

110,770

30,530

3,760

2,720

24,750

3,140

20,766,100

182,660

1,108,260

851,210

18,623,960

810

720,800

2,270

5,940,040

278,414,860

146,748,930

70,092,720

76,656,200

1,857,190

10,057,550

11,996,190

57,775,710

40,535,040

2,420,850

14,819,810

6,921,640

2,014,360

77,182,970

4,549,350

4,394,770

154,580

25,897,400

28,744,150

400,330

967,200

2,720

25,190

158,760

865,320

838,560

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 23 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2002 2003 2004

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges 4

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA) 5

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,199,020

910

726,650

11,225,500

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,866,380

81,680

9,070

6,657,740

93,440

20,820

1,149,860

807,410

156,040

14,200

494,420

17,690

78,430

137,440

255,830

7,370

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

96,160

336,570

53,520

3,906,930

88,520

10,210

5,962,680

107,050

19,320

1,142,600

841,910

164,200

14,790

471,740

34,200

127,960

53,980

295,740

6,300

1,948,630

723,930

11,729,900

40,820

385,550

57,150

4,248,300

86,680

5,770,970

77,110

1,178,610

823,760

63,500

22,230

489,880

39,920

294,840

7,530

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. 4 Orange production revised. Grapefruit and other citrus fruit revisions will be released on September 23, 2004 in "Citrus Fruits 2004

Summary". 5 September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004

Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 24 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 corn producing States

during 2004. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to

obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are rounded actual field counts from this survey.

Corn for Grain: Plant Population per Acre,

Selected States, 2000-2004

State Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

KS 1

MN

MO 2

 NE

 All

NE

 Irrigated

NE

 Non-Irrigated

OH

SD 2

WI

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

25,800

25,800

25,800

25,800

25,050

25,150

25,150

25,150

26,500

26,200

26,300

26,300

27,500

27,250

27,150

27,150

23,700

23,400

23,400

23,450

27,300

27,000

27,000

27,050

18,500

18,200

18,200

18,200

25,200

24,900

24,800

24,900

26,550

26,150

26,200

26,200

26,750

26,700

26,650

26,650

26,100

25,900

25,950

25,950

26,500

26,550

26,450

26,450

28,050

28,000

28,000

28,000

22,750

22,650

22,750

22,750

26,250

26,100

26,100

26,050

18,550

18,450

18,700

18,700

26,150

26,100

26,050

26,050

26,800

26,950

27,000

27,000

26,400

26,350

26,350

26,350

25,350

25,350

25,300

25,300

26,850

26,700

26,700

26,700

26,950

26,850

26,800

26,800

23,250

23,250

23,350

23,350

26,400

26,450

26,450

26,450

19,450

19,450

19,650

19,650

24,850

24,450

24,400

24,400

26,550

26,400

26,650

26,650

27,150

27,050

27,050

27,050

26,050

25,900

25,900

25,900

27,400

27,250

27,250

27,250

28,700

28,800

28,800

28,800

23,800

23,700

23,700

23,700

26,900

26,700

26,650

26,650

19,800

19,800

19,800

19,800

25,900

25,900

25,900

25,900

27,300

27,000

27,100

27,100

27,750

26,650

28,000

25,400

29,300

24,350

24,100

26,900

19,700

26,950

21,800

27,700

 1 Field counts began in 2004. 2 Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 1996.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 25 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,

Selected States, 2000-2004

State Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

KS 1

MN

MO 2

NE

 All

 NE

 Irrigated

 NE

 Non-Irrigated

OH

SD 2

WI

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

25,500

25,450

25,450

25,450

24,500

24,550

24,650

24,650

26,000

25,600

25,650

25,650

27,350

27,350

27,250

27,250

22,800

22,750

22,700

22,750

26,500

26,350

26,350

26,350

17,550

17,500

17,500

17,500

24,450

24,250

23,950

24,100

26,100

25,500

25,550

25,550

25,650

25,550

25,550

25,550

25,500

25,350

25,400

25,400

25,450

25,350

25,250

25,250

27,500

26,750

26,700

26,700

22,200

21,950

22,050

22,050

25,550

25,350

25,350

25,350

18,050

17,800

18,000

18,000

25,550

25,250

25,150

25,100

26,100

26,100

26,100

26,100

25,050

25,050

25,000

25,000

23,900

23,650

23,650

23,650

25,950

25,800

25,800

25,800

26,550

26,150

26,100

26,100

21,650

21,250

21,200

21,200

25,800

25,700

25,650

25,650

16,700

15,950

15,950

15,950

23,700

22,400

22,350

22,350

25,950

25,050

25,250

25,250

26,700

26,700

26,650

26,650

25,350

25,400

25,350

25,350

26,700

26,550

26,600

26,600

28,300

28,650

28,600

28,600

22,950

22,650

22,600

22,600

26,550

26,350

26,300

26,300

18,300

17,850

17,800

17,800

25,500

25,700

25,750

25,750

26,150

26,300

26,250

26,250

27,350

26,200

27,350

25,350

29,000

24,400

23,650

26,550

19,100

25,950

21,950

25,600

 1 Field counts began in 2004. 2 Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 1996.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 26 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 11 soybean producing States

during 2004. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain

specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet,

Selected States, 2000-2004

State Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Number Number Number Number Number

AR 1 2

IL

IN

IA

KS 3

MN

MO

NE

ND 3

OH

SD 3

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

2,678

1,859

1,835

2,162

1,996

2,020

2,021

1,917

1,786

1,784

1,784

1,830

1,674

1,660

1,660

1,607

1,509

1,507

1,507

1,974

1,769

1,782

1,793

1,795

1,617

1,619

1,619

1,893

1,625

1,685

1,697

2,260

1,867

1,817

2,041

1,932

1,932

1,932

2,003

1,882

1,880

1,869

1,809

1,778

1,787

1,796

1,492

1,433

1,475

1,475

1,424

1,732

1,874

1,921

1,961

1,932

2,003

2,048

1,801

1,834

1,785

1,785

1,952

1,785

1,795

1,802

1,773

1,677

1,680

1,680

1,988

1,828

1,867

1,867

1,688

1,785

1,739

1,715

1,427

1,609

1,681

1,705

1,548

1,517

1,587

1,592

1,593

1,495

1,499

1,492

1,800

1,606

1,634

1,634

1,786

1,692

1,582

1,582

1,749

1,629

1,647

1,647

1,582

1,417

1,440

1,440

1,144

1,455

1,547

1,523

1,727

1,642

1,636

1,636

1,791

1,898

1,764

1,752

2,070

1,909

1,772

1,482

1,487

1,798

1,835

1,114

1,808

1,248

 1 September data not available due to plant immaturity. 2 Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 2002. 3 Field counts began in 2004.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 27 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during

2004. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific

counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 2000-2004 1

State Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

CA

GA

LA

MS

NC

TX

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

874

767

755

755

755

760

790

801

800

800

597

631

621

629

629

722

692

674

674

674

657

665

652

650

650

670

724

743

747

747

408

388

397

404

448

747

780

816

756

756

939

902

921

918

918

590

677

651

664

664

625

592

582

588

588

754

696

680

679

679

719

722

696

705

705

441

435

439

445

445

840

763

784

772

772

945

1,041

1,009

1,011

1,011

569

604

591

600

608

663

756

749

742

742

802

783

768

767

767

636

629

560

567

564

536

511

520

497

497

798

755

744

744

744

973

945

893

893

893

559

646

643

665

664

681

778

775

775

775

837

824

811

808

808

628

630

632

632

632

465

431

429

435

433

864

954

646

635

808

758

639

 1 Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened

bolls, and burrs per 40 feet or row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 28 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 29 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 30 NASS, USDA

August Weather Summary

Eight tropical cyclones reached tropical storm or hurricane intensity in the Atlantic Ocean basin, breaking the

August record of seven established in 1933 and 1995. Five of those storms made landfall in the eastern United

States, while a sixth (Hurricane Alex) grazed North Carolina’s Outer Banks on August 3 with wind gusts as high as

100 m.p.h. Florida bore the brunt of the tropical activity, enduring landfalls from Tropical Storm Bonnie (near

Apalachicola on August 12) and category four Hurricane Charley (near Ft. Myers with maximum sustained winds

estimated near 145 m.p.h. on August 13). Primary agricultural concerns from the tropical activity in August

included damage to Florida’s citrus, greenhouse, and nursery industries, and adverse effects on open-boll cotton and

other unharvested summer crops in the Southeast. Charley battered orange groves and agricultural infrastructure in

a relatively narrow band across Florida from near Ft. Myers northeastward to Orlando and Daytona Beach. 

Meanwhile, below-normal August temperatures capped one of the coolest summers on record across the Great

Plains, Midwest, and South. Midwestern monthly temperatures generally ranged from 4 to 8 degrees F below

normal. Nevertheless, corn and soybean development remained ahead of schedule in much of the southern Corn

Belt due to a record planting pace into early May. In the upper Midwest, however, cool weather aggravated

summer crop developmental delays, especially for late-planted corn and soybeans sown following the mid-May

arrival of heavy rain. On August 20-21, frost and a light freeze struck the upper Midwest, causing local damage to

immature crops. Soil moisture reserves remained adequate to abundant for filling to maturing summer crops across

the central and southern Plains and the Midwest. Locally excessive rain soaked parts of the southern and eastern

Corn Belt in late August, but a late-month drying trend on the central and southern Plains promoted fieldwork,

including summer crop harvesting and initial winter wheat planting. On the northern Plains, cool weather slowed

the maturation of spring-sown small grains, while soil moisture shortages remained a concern for the upcoming

winter wheat establishment period. In contrast, wet weather overspread the Northwest during August, slowing

fieldwork but boosting soil moisture in preparation for winter wheat planting. The remainder of the West

experienced near-normal temperatures and sporadic showers, resulting in little change in the overall drought

picture. Parts of the Southwest and Intermountain West, set to enter a potential fifth year of drought, will need a

bounteous winter wet season to prevent a worsening water-supply situation next year.

August Crop Summary

Below-normal temperatures prevailed across the Corn Belt and Great Plains, particularly in the northernmost areas

of the regions where crop development was well behind the normal pace. Brief periods of freezing temperatures in

the Dakotas and Minnesota did not significantly damage crops, but raised concerns about the crops’ ability to

mature before a killing frost occurs. Elsewhere in the Corn Belt, heavy rainfall benefitted crop conditions but

caused some flooding, while periods of warmer weather allowed crops to progress at a near-normal pace. Along the

Atlantic Coast, temperatures averaged below normal, while Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricanes Alex and

Charley brought abundant rainfall to most coastal areas. In Florida, Charley’s high winds caused considerable

damage to the citrus crop, while rains were generally beneficial to cotton and peanut crops elsewhere in the

Southeast. Moderate precipitation and below-normal temperatures prevailed across the Delta, delaying cotton

development. Irrigation supplies in the Rocky Mountains were replenished by scattered monsoonal showers. In

California and the Southwest, dry conditions prevailed with temperatures varying from below normal at the

beginning and end of the month to above normal during the middle of the month. Warm weather in the Pacific

Northwest was generally favorable for small grain development, but rains delayed harvest activities toward month’s

end.

Corn silking had reached 96 percent complete by the middle of August, 1 percentage point behind last year and

2 points behind normal. Doughing began the month ahead of the 5-year average pace but fell behind normal during

the month. As of August 29, seventy-nine percent of the crop had reached the dough stage, 7 points behind last

year and 9 points behind normal. Denting followed a similar pattern, ending the month at 46 percent complete,

11 points behind the 5-year average. At month’s end, 11 percent of the acreage had reached maturity, the same as

last year but 2 points behind normal. Throughout the month, progress trailed well behind normal in the northern

Great Plains and northern Corn Belt. On August 29, denting was over a week behind normal across these areas and

trailed the normal pace by 2 weeks in Minnesota and 3 weeks in North Dakota. Doughing progress trailed the

5-year average by similar margins in these areas.

By mid-month, growers had harvested 96 percent of their winter wheat acreage, 2 points behind last year but the

same as the 5-year average. At that time, harvest was complete in all areas, except the Pacific Northwest, northern

Rockies, and northern Great Plains. Montana growers harvested 56 percent of their acreage during the first 2 weeks

of the month, but remained 13 points behind normal.

The cotton crop set bolls at a near-normal pace during the month, reaching 95 percent complete on August 22. At

that time, boll setting was at or near completion in all areas, except the southern Great Plains. Bolls had begun

opening in all States by mid-month, but trailed behind the normal pace in most areas. By month’s end, one-fourth

of the acreage had open bolls, 4 points ahead of last year but 7 points behind normal. In the Delta, where
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 31 NASS, USDA

below-normal temperatures hindered crop development, bolls opening trailed the normal pace by over a week. In

contrast, progress was 18 points ahead of normal in California and 38 points ahead in Virginia.

Soybean blooming had reached 95 percent completion by mid-August, 1 point ahead of last year but 1 point behind

normal. Blooming was at or near completion in most States, but trailed behind normal in the northern Corn Belt

and Great Plains due to cool weather. Pod setting began the month ahead of normal, but by August 29 was even

with the normal pace of 95 percent complete. On this same date, 6 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, the

same as last year but 1 point behind the 5-year average. The crop was most advanced in the Delta, where

62 percent of Mississippi’s crop, 41 percent of Louisiana’s crop, and 21 percent of Arkansas’s crop had dropped

leaves, well ahead of the normal pace. Progress was also ahead of normal in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, but

was at or behind the normal pace elsewhere.

Progress of the sorghum crop remained behind normal throughout the month. At month’s end, 88 percent of the

crop was headed, 6 points ahead of last year but 3 points behind the 5-year average. Forty-six percent of the

acreage had turned color and 24 percent of the crop was mature, 14 and 8 points behind normal, respectively. 

Kansas and Texas, together accounting for nearly three-fourths of the Nation’s sorghum acreage, were over 1 week

behind normal for both coloring and maturation due to below-normal temperatures in the Great Plains.

Rice heading began the month ahead of the normal pace, but fell behind normal after midmonth as cool weather

prevailed in the Delta and along the Gulf Coast. As of August 29, heading had reached 95 percent complete,

2 points behind last year and the 5-year average. Harvest progress trailed the average pace throughout the month,

reaching 18 percent complete at month’s end, 1 point behind last year and 2 points behind normal. Louisiana and

Texas growers led the Nation with 75 and 71 percent of their acreage harvested, respectively. However, both

States, along with Arkansas, were behind their 5-year average.

On August 1, five percent of the spring wheat crop had been harvested, 6 points behind last year and 3 points

behind normal. Progress fell further behind during the month, as cool weather prevailed across most growing areas. 

By month’s end, growers had harvested just 50 percent of their acreage, compared with 90 percent last year and

75 percent for the average. Harvest progress was 30 points behind normal in North Dakota and nearly 50 points

behind in Minnesota. Only Washington producers were ahead of their normal harvest pace.

The barley harvest progressed similarly to spring wheat, falling further behind during the month. As of August 29,

sixty-one percent of the acreage had been harvested, 29 points behind last year and 14 points behind normal. 

Growers in Washington had reaped 87 percent of their acreage and were 8 points ahead of normal, while progress

trailed the 5-year average in all other States. Harvest progress was over 1 week behind normal in North Dakota and

over 2 weeks behind in Minnesota.

At midmonth, oat growers had harvested 58 percent of their crop, 15 points behind last year and the 5-year average. 

Progress had gained ground by month’s end, reaching 85 percent complete by August 29, ten points behind last year

and 8 points behind normal. At that time, harvest was complete in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota and neared

completion in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Minnesota and North Dakota growers were farthest behind, trailing their

normal pace by 14 and 18 points, respectively.

Corn for Grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.4 million acres, unchanged from

August but up 3 percent from 2003.

The September 1 corn objective yield data indicate the highest stalk count on record for the combined ten objective

yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). 

In a program expansion, objective yield data are now being collected for Kansas, Missouri, and South Dakota. The

September 1 objective yield forecasted ears per acre are also at a record high, 2.5 percent above the previous record

high set last year. 

As of August 29, seventy percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, down 6 percentage points from last month

but 24 points above a year ago. In the Corn Belt and Great Plains, below-normal temperatures prevailed,

particularly in the northernmost areas where crop development was well behind the normal pace. Brief periods of

freezing temperatures in the Dakotas and Minnesota raised concerns about the crop’s ability to mature before a

killing frost occurs. Along the Atlantic Coast, temperatures averaged below normal, while Tropical Storm Bonnie

and Hurricanes Alex and Charley brought abundant rainfall to most coastal areas which has allowed for increased

yield potential. Moderate precipitation and below-normal temperatures prevailed across the Delta while plentiful

rainfall in the Rocky Mountains replenished irrigation supplies.

Corn silking had reached 96 percent complete by the middle of August, 1 percentage point behind last year and

2 points behind normal. Doughing began the month ahead of the 5-year average pace but fell behind normal during

the month. As of August 29, seventy-nine percent of the crop had reached the dough stage, 7 points behind last

year and 9 points behind normal. Denting followed a similar pattern, ending the month at 46 percent complete,
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 32 NASS, USDA

11 points behind the 5-year average. At month’s end, 11 percent of the acreage had reached maturity, the same as

last year but 2 points behind normal. Throughout the month, progress trailed well behind normal in the northern

Great Plains and northern Corn Belt. On August 29, denting was over a week behind normal across these areas, and

trailed the normal pace by 2 weeks in Minnesota and 3 weeks in North Dakota.

Sorghum: Production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month and up 15 percent from

2003. Based on September 1 conditions, the sorghum yield is forecast at 68.3 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from

August and 15.6 bushels from last year. The yield forecast for Kansas, at 75 bushels, is up 3 bushels from last

month. Texas, the second leading producer, expects a yield of 61 bushels per acre, unchanged from August. 

Acreage expected to be harvested for grain in the U.S. is 6.92 million acres, unchanged from August but 11 percent

lower than the 2003 harvested grain acreage. 

Across much of the Great Plains and western Corn Belt, development of the crop has been behind normal due to

cool temperatures. On August 29, the crop had progressed to 24 percent mature, compared with 26 percent last

year and 32 percent for the 5-year average. In Kansas, the crop was only 3 percent mature, compared with

6 percent a year ago and 13 percent for the 5-year average. The cool, damp weather has not severely impacted crop

condition, as 65 percent was rated good to excellent, compared to 52 percent at this time last year.

Rice: Production is forecast at 222 million cwt, up fractionally from August and up 11 percent from 2003. Rice

planted area was revised up 18,000 acres from the June estimate to 3.36 million acres, and is 11 percent above

2003. Harvested area was revised up 16,000 acres from August to 3.33 million acres and is 11 percent above 2003. 

As of September 1, the U.S. all rice yield is forecast at a record high 6,651 pounds per acre. This yield is down

29 pounds from the August forecast but up 6 pounds from the record high yield established in 2003.

As of August 29, rice harvest in Louisiana and Texas was 75 percent and 71 percent complete, respectively. 

Louisiana lagged the 5-year average by 1 percentage point, while Texas lagged by 11 points. Mississippi rice

harvest, at 11 percent complete, exceeded the 5-year average by 2 points. Arkansas and California harvest, at

3 percent complete, and Missouri harvest, at 1 percent complete, were just getting under way.

Soybeans: Area for harvest is forecast at 73.7 million acres, unchanged from August but up 2 percent from the

2003 acreage. The September objective yield pod counts are forecasted up 8 percent from last year. Higher pod

counts are forecasted in all seven major soybean producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri,

Nebraska, and Ohio). In fact, record pod counts are forecast for both Illinois and Ohio. As of August 29, ninetyfive percent of the U.S. crop had set pods. This is 1 percentage point ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year

average. Six percent of the acreage was dropping leaves, equal to 2003 but 1 point behind normal. 

As of August 29, sixty-four percent of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, 6 percentage points below the

rating at the end of July and 19 points more than the same week in 2003. Crop conditions remained unusually high

in August due to the below-normal temperatures across most the Great Plains and the Corn Belt. In the Delta,

soybeans also benefitted from cool temperatures and moderate precipitation in August and are showing an increase

in prospective yields. Record tying yields are forecast in Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and New

Jersey, and Arkansas is forecast one bushel higher than the 2003 record setting yield. The soybean crop in the

northern Great Plains has suffered from the lack of warm temperatures and has lost yield potential. The

September 1 yield forecast for North Dakota declined 5 bushels from August 1, while Minnesota is down 4 bushels. 

The concern of an early frost will linger throughout the remainder of the season.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.44 billion pounds, up 3 percent from last month and up 7 percent from 2003. 

Planted acres, at 1.43 million, are up 3 percent from the June estimate and up 6 percent from 2003. Area for

harvest is expected to total 1.39 million acres, up 3 percent from August and up 6 percent from last year. Yields are

expected to average a record high 3,188 pounds per acre, down 10 pounds from August but up 29 pounds

from 2003.

Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 3.08 billion

pounds, up 5 percent from August and up 11 percent from last year. Planted acres, at 1.00 million, are up 6 percent

from the June estimate, and up 14 percent from 2003. Expected acreage for harvest, at 973,000, is up 6 percent

from August and up 14 percent from 2003. Yields in the 4-state region are expected to average 3,165 pounds per

acre, 18 pounds below August and 73 pounds below last year. As of August 29, peanuts in Alabama were rated

47 percent good to excellent. Florida peanuts were rated 79 percent good to excellent, and Georgia peanuts were

rated 50 percent good to excellent.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast 435 million pounds, down 1 percent from August but up 5 percent

from 2003. Planted acres, at 138,000, are down 1 percent from the June estimate but up 2 percent from 2003. Area

for harvest is expected to total 137,000 acres, down 1 percent from August but up 3 percent from last year. Yield is

forecast at 3,177 pounds per acre, up 1 pound per acre from August and up 51 pounds per acre from last year. As
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 33 NASS, USDA

of August 29, peanuts were rated 81 percent good to excellent in Virginia and 83 percent good to excellent in North

Carolina.

Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 926 million pounds, down

3 percent from August and down 3 percent from 2003. Planted acres, at 291,000, are down 5 percent from the June

estimate and down 12 percent from 2003. The region’s area for harvest, at 283,000, acres is down 4 percent from

August and down 12 percent from 2003. Yields are expected to average 3,272 pounds per acre across the region,

up 17 pounds per acre from August and up 310 pounds per acre from 2003. As of August 29, Oklahoma peanuts

were rated 78 percent good to excellent, while peanuts in Texas were rated 82 percent good to excellent.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.0 million acres, is down 1 percent from August, but 10 percent

above 2003. Based on administrative information, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Missouri, and Tennessee

have fewer harvested acres compared with a month ago. Arizona and New Mexico increased their harvested

acreage from the previous month. American-Pima harvested area, at 253,000 acres, is up 3,000 acres from last

month and up 43 percent from last year.

During the month of August, three Hurricanes (Alex, Bonnie, and Charley) crossed over the eastern portion of the

Southeast. No major damage was reported to the cotton crop. Growers have some concerns about the cool

temperatures and showers slowing crop development and possibly adversely affecting quality. Compared to the

previous month, Georgia good to excellent condition declined 16 percentage points.

The cotton crop in the Delta States was over a week behind their 5-year average development at the end of the

month. Mostly dry and warm conditions allowed growth and development to accelerate at the beginning of August. 

Cooler than normal air covered most of the Delta during mid-August. By the end of the month, warmer

temperatures returned to most of the region. The duration of below normal temperatures raised concerns about the

maturity of the crop, but the crop condition remained near last month.

Dryland cotton in the High Plains of Texas received rainfall which was particularly beneficial to the late-planted

acres. Producers were concerned that the cotton plants were not receiving enough heat units, because temperatures

have been cooler than normal. Warmer temperatures returned, enhancing the condition of the crop. Harvest was

virtually complete in southern Texas. Data from the objective yield samples show Texas boll counts are at a record

high level.

California upland cotton producers experienced hot, dry weather conditions. All of California’s cotton was rated

good to excellent at the end of August. Whitefly population was lighter than normal. Harvest was underway in the

Desert Southwest. Objective yield survey data indicate California's boll counts are the highest of the previous

ten years.

American-Pima production is forecast at 710,000 bales, up 1 percent from August and up 64 percent from 2003. 

The increase from last month is due to added harvested acres in New Mexico. The U.S. yield is forecast at

1,347 pounds per harvested acre, down 3 pounds from the August forecast. If realized, this would be 5 pounds

above the record high yield established in 2002.

Ginnings totaled 563,400 running bales prior to September 1, compared with 566,650 running bales ginned prior to

the same date last year and 538,450 running bales in 2002.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 2004 is forecast at 883 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from the

August forecast but up 10 percent from 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 413,550 acres, unchanged from August

but 1 percent above 2003. Yields for 2004 are expected to average 2,134 pounds per acre, 6 pounds lower than last

month but 182 pounds higher than a year ago. Compared to last month, lower yields in Florida, Georgia,

Pennsylvania, and South Carolina more than offset higher yields in Indiana, Maryland, Ohio, and Tennessee. 

Yields in North Carolina, the leading tobacco producing State, are expected to average 2,215 pounds, unchanged

from August but 337 pounds higher than last year. In Kentucky, the second leading State, growers expect to have

yields averaging 2,048 pounds, also unchanged from last month but 32 pounds above last year. 

Flue-cured tobacco production is expected to total 512 million pounds, down 1 percent since last month but

12 percent higher than the 2003 crop. Growers plan to harvest 231,000 acres in 2004, down 1 percent from last

year. Yields are expected to average 2,215 pounds per acre, 23 pounds below the August forecast but up

258 pounds from the previous year. Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina have experienced heavy rains that

reduced yield prospects.

Burley production is expected to total 301 million pounds, up 1 percent since August 1 and 7 percent higher than

last year. Yields are expected to average 1,929 pounds per acre, 21 pounds above last month and up 79 pounds

from 2003. Burley growers plan to harvest 156,300 acres, up 3 percent from last year. Growers in Kentucky, the

largest burley producing State, expect to produce 205 million pounds, unchanged from last month but 3 percent
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 34 NASS, USDA

above last year. Blue mold and black shank are being reported in the State at varying degrees from field to field.

Tennessee, the second largest burley producing State, encountered a dry spell allowing diseased crops to dry and

conditions to improve.

Fire-cured tobacco production is expected to total 36.6 million pounds, unchanged from the August forecast but up

6 percent from last year. Growers plan to harvest 11,720 acres, 4 percent above a year ago. The expected average

yield is 3,120 pounds per acre, unchanged since last month but 53 pounds higher than the previous year.

Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production is expected to total 6.38 million pounds, down 4 percent from the

previous forecast but up 52 percent from 2003. Average yields, at 1,933 pounds per acre, are 84 pounds lower than

the August forecast but 185 pounds more than last year. A total of 3,300 acres is expected to be harvested, up

38 percent from 2003.

Dark air-cured production is expected to total 12.2 million pounds, up less than 1 percent from the August forecast

and 8 percent above 2003. Growers plan to harvest 4,230 acres, 2 percent more than last year. Yields are expected

to average 2,877 pounds per acre, up 12 pounds per acre from August and 151 pounds greater than last year.

All Cigar production is expected to total 14.3 million pounds, unchanged from last month and up less than 1 percent

from last year. Overall yield is expected to average 2,044 pounds per acre, unchanged from the August forecast but

up 181 pounds from 2003. Growers of Cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 7,000 acres, 8 percent less than a year

ago.

Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 18.5 million cwt in 2004, down 1 percent from

both the July 1 forecast and the 2003 final estimate. Harvested area is estimated at 55,100 acres, down 6 percent

from last year. The average yield is forecast at 336 cwt per acre, 9 cwt above the July forecast and 16 cwt above

last year. The decrease in acres more than offset the increase in yield. 

Yields are expected to be above last year in Colorado, Delaware, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New

Mexico, and Texas. Wet conditions in Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia have caused potatoes to rot with growers

abandoning some fields. Growers have also abandoned some acres in Missouri due to heavy rains and poor prices. 

Wet August weather in Delaware and Maryland set the potato harvest slightly behind schedule but the crop is in

good condition. Colorado had scattered thunderstorms and some hail damage that have slowed harvest but the

condition of the crop is good. Harvest is progressing in California’s Central Valley. Condition of the crop is good

and yields have been reported as normal. The quality of the crop in Texas is reported as good and harvest is almost

complete.

Fall Potatoes, 2003 Final: Production of 2003 fall potatoes is finalized at 411 million cwt, down 1 percent from

2002 but 4 percent above the 2001 crop. Area harvested, at 1.09 million acres, is 1 percent below the previous year

but 2 percent above two years ago. The average yield was 376 cwt per acre, up 2 cwt from 2002 and 9 cwt above

2001. 

When compared with the annual estimates made last January, fall production was revised down less than 1 percent. 

Smaller crops in Massachusetts, Nebraska, Ohio, and Pennsylvania more than offset larger crops in California and

Rhode Island.

All Potatoes, 2003: Final production of potatoes from all four seasons in 2003 totaled 458 million cwt, virtually

unchanged from a year earlier but 5 percent above 2001. Area harvested is estimated at 1.25 million acres, down

1 percent from 2002 but 2 percent above 2001. The yield, averaging 367 cwt per acre, increased 5 cwt from a year

earlier and is 9 cwt more than 2001. Winter production in 2003 dropped 4 percent from 2002. Spring and summer

production rose 9 percent and 5 percent, respectively, from a year earlier. Fall potatoes decreased 1 percent in 2003

from the previous year.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2004 is forecast at 31.7 million tons, 2 percent below

the August forecast and 6 percent below 2003. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 961,600 acres for sugar and

seed during the 2004 crop year, down 1 percent from August and 3 percent less than last year's final harvested area. 

Yield is forecast at 33.0 tons per acre, 0.4 ton below the previous forecast and 1.0 ton below the 2003 yield. In

Louisiana, the harvested area forecast declined 10,000 acres from August. Louisiana’s yield forecast also dropped

by 1.0 ton, due to dry conditions in August. Hurricane Charley missed Florida’s sugarcane-growing area, and

acreage and yield forecasts are unchanged.

Sugarbeets: Production for 2004 is forecast at 28.5 million tons, 1 percent above the August forecast but 7 percent

below last year's production. Growers in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1.33 million acres,

down fractionally from last month and 2 percent below last year. The yield is forecast at 21.5 tons per acre, up

0.1 ton from August but 1.2 tons below 2003. Yield expectations improved in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 35 NASS, USDA

Wyoming; declined in Colorado and Nebraska; and were unchanged in all other States. August brought cooler than

normal temperatures and adequate moisture to most of the major growing area. Frost in Minnesota and North

Dakota August 19-21 did not significantly harm the crop.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.68 million pounds for August, down 5 percent from last

month and 17 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,185 acres, up 10 percent from last month but

8 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,385 acres, up 31 percent from last month but 12 percent

below August 2003. Wet weather in March adversely affected bloom, resulting in reduced production in August. 

Weather over the major producing areas was variable during August with some rainfall and warm temperatures

providing good growing conditions.

Florida Citrus: The month of August was marked by hot temperatures and high humidity, which were increased

by the passage of Hurricane Charley on August 13th through the center of a major citrus area. Although rainfall

was adequate during the month, hot temperatures caused surface soil drying in many areas. Rainfall was heaviest

early in the month in all citrus growing areas and lighter following the hurricane. Charley’s rainfall accumulations

were variable but not heavy as the storm moved very quickly through Florida. Hurricane Charley entered the State

in Charlotte County and moved northeast through DeSoto, Hardee, and Polk, three of the major orange producing

counties in the State. As the storm moved ashore, it was compact with high winds around the eye in a very tight

pattern. Areas out from the eye up to 20 miles received varying amounts of damage and fruit loss. Tornados

spawned by the storm were numerous and uprooted trees in some groves. The storm moved through Orange and

Seminole counties and exited the State near Daytona Beach. Following the storm, varying amounts of fruit were

observed on the ground with tree limb breakage prevalent. Some trees were blown over. Groves hard hit from

Hurricane Charley continue to drop fruit as growers assess damage and move downed trees to provide access to

groves. The Florida NASS office was in the process of completing the annual Limb Count Survey when Hurricane

Charley hit. A protion of the samples located in the affected counties will be revisited before the October Crop

Production report in order to factor the tree and fruit loss into the first Florida citrus production forecast for the

2004-05 season. 

Citrus crops in other areas not affected by Hurricane Charley were making good progress with no major problems

reported. Trees in those areas were in excellent condition. Growers reported fruit sizes of Hamlins and grapefruit to

be smaller than normal. Fresh fruit crops were being sprayed regularly to hold down insect populations, with some

crops on the East Coast receiving weekly treatments. Growers and caretakers were conducting routine summer

cultural practices including weed control and dead tree removal and replacement. In the flat woods and coastal

areas, they were also maintaining ditches and canals to move excess water out of the groves and away from tree

roots. 

On September 5, powerful Hurricane Frances hit Florida’s East Coast. It made landfall near Stuart and moved

slowly northwest through St. Lucie, Okeechobee, Osceola, Polk, and Lake counties, and exited the State north of

Tampa. This was a very large storm with high winds and large amounts of rain. The East Coast is the major

grapefruit growing area and sustained winds did considerable damage to fruit and trees. St. Lucie, Martin, Indian

River, and Palm Beach counties, all citrus producing counties, were hit hardest. These counties account for almost

200,000 acres of Florida citrus with nearly 80,000 acres of grapefruit (the equivalent of 73 percent of Florida’s

grapefruit bearing acres) and approximately 112,000 acres of orange production (the equivalent of 17 percent of

Florida’s orange bearing acres). St. Lucie and Indian River grow the bulk of the total. Reports are very preliminary

but indicate more fruit loss on grapefruit than oranges with limited tree mortality. Heavy rainfall left high water in

many groves and ditches, making the task of moving this water away from the tree roots a high priority. Nearly all

of the Annual Limb Count Survey samples had been worked on Florida’s East Coast area. Currently, plans are in

place to revisit a portion of these samples prior to the October Crop Production report.

California Citrus: Valencia oranges continued to be picked but harvesting activity was slowing. Fruit quality

began showing a normal season decline, including rind puff and regreening. The new Navel orange crop progressed

normally. Lemon and grapefruit harvest continued. Citrus groves were irrigated due to the intense summer heat

and dry conditions.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers conducted cultural activities that included weed control,

fungicide applications, and irrigation of trees and vines. Stone fruit harvest remained active throughout the month. 

O’Henry, Arctic Snow, and Snow Giant peaches; Howard Sun and Emerald Beaut plums; August Red and August

Glo nectarines; and Flavor Grenade and Yummy Giant pluots were harvested. Granny Smith and Gala apples,

Asian pears, Early Foothill pomegranates, Pineapple quince, and figs were also picked, packed, and shipped. Prune

harvest in the northern areas was progressing quickly, with a very light crop reported. Persimmons were steadily

gaining size with irrigation underway as needed but external coloring slowed because of warm temperatures. Raisin

grape harvesting began in the San Joaquin Valley during the first week in August and continued throughout the

month. Approximately 20 percent of the crop was harvested by the end of August. Fruit in dried-on-the-vine

vineyards was drying evenly but no harvesting was reported. Wine grape harvesting continued throughout the
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 36 NASS, USDA

month. Picking and packing of grapes for fresh market continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Thompson Seedless

and Flame Seedless were among the grape varieties harvested. Olives continued to size normally, while olive

growers applied treatment for fruit fly. The kiwifruit crop was reported to be generally normal but with small sizes. 

Strawberries were harvested in the central coast. Almond harvest was active throughout the month. Trees were

shaken and nuts were raked into windrows, picked up, and hauled to processors. Steady crop maturity continued in

pistachio, walnut, and pecan orchards. Irrigation was underway in several areas. Walnut orchards were treated for

husk fly and codling moth.

Hazelnuts: Production in Oregon is forecast at 44,000 tons, up 16 percent from last year’s revised production of

37,900 tons and more than double the 2002 crop of 19,500 tons. If realized, the 2004 hazelnut crop would deviate

from the alternate bearing cycle which has been typical of the Oregon crop for the past decade. Last year was

considered an “up” year based on this historical production pattern. Excellent growing conditions began last

summer and continued through last fall, allowing trees to put on good growth. Also, excellent early season bloom

and pollinating conditions helped achieve a very high nut set. These factors, combined with a very light nut drop

this summer, have all contributed to this crop deviating from the normal pattern. This year’s forecasted production

would be the third highest hazelnut crop on record, behind the 2001 crop of 49,500 tons and the 1997 crop of

46,650 tons.

The results of the Oregon hazelnut objective yield survey show the number of nuts picked per tree at 298 this year. 

This compares with 261 nuts last year and 222 nuts in 2002. The percentage of good nuts is 85.1 percent, down

from 88.0 percent last year but up from 84.4 percent in 2002. The average dry weight of the good nuts is

3.28 grams, 0.39 gram heavier than last year but 0.03 gram lighter than 2002. Brown stained nuts amount to just

0.10 percent of all good nuts sampled this year, a historic low, surpassing last year’s record low of 0.12 percent.

Walnuts: California production is forecast at 325,000 tons, virtually unchanged from last year’s record high

production of 326,000 tons. Excellent growing conditions, combined with a 2 percent increase in bearing acres, to

217,000, have contributed to a deviation from the traditional large yearly swings in production for this alternate

bearing crop. The September forecast is based on the walnut objective measurement survey conducted July 26

through August 24, 2004. 

Survey data indicate average nuts set per tree at 1,526, down 5 percent from last year’s average of 1,599 nuts. 

Compared to last year, nuts set for the Hartley and Franquette varieties are up 18 percent and 76 percent,

respectively, while nuts set for Chandler and Serr varieties are down 13 percent and 30 percent, respectively. 

Percent of sound kernels in-shell is a record high 98.2 percent Statewide, compared to 97.0 percent last year. 

In-shell weight per nut is 22.5 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement is 32.6 millimeters. The

average length in-shell is 39.0 millimeters. These compare to last year’s measurements of 22.4 grams in-shell

weight per nut, 32.5 millimeters average in-shell suture measurement, and 39.1 millimeters average length in-shell.

Pistachios: The California pistachio forecast normally released in the September Crop Production report will not

be issued this year. The indications used for setting the September pistachio forecast have been produced by the

objective measurement survey, funded by the pistachio industry. Earlier this year, NASS and industry

representatives agreed to not issue a 2004 forecast and to conduct additional research to improve the objective

measurement model. A decision will be made at a later date if and when in-season production forecasts will

resume. 

The 2004 California pistachio production estimate will be released in the Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts - Preliminary

2004 Summary on January 25, 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 37 NASS, USDA

Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between August 25 and

September 7 to gather information on expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for corn,

cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the

U.S. production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission

to randomly locate two sample plots in selected fields for the objective yield survey (corn, cotton, and soybeans). 

The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of

plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or

pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological

yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop

maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another

plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. 

Approximately 16,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable

yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average

yields.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for

reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather

patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits

their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and

the State analyses to prepare the published September 1 forecasts. 

Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made

each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the

marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and

ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant

changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production

report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey. Planted acres may also be revised for

cotton, peanuts, and rice in September Crop Production report each year; spring wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and

oats only in the Small Grains Annual report at the end of September; and all other spring planted crops in the

October Crop Production report. Revisions to planted acres will only be made when either special survey data or

administrative data are available. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is

strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean

Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

September 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean

Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain production forecast is 5.2 percent. This means that chances are 2

out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.2 percent. 

Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.0 percent.

Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the September 1

forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the

final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 300 million bushels, ranging from 10 million bushels to

891 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 13 times and above 7 times. This

does not imply that the September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 38 NASS, USDA

Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Crop Unit

Root Mean

Square Error 20-Year Record of

Differences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Percent

90

Percent

Confidence

Interval

Quantity Years

Average Smallest Largest Below

Final

Above

Final

Million Million Million Number Number

Corn For Grain

Sorghum for Grain

Rice

Soybeans for Beans

Cotton 1

Bu

Bu

Cwt

Bu

Bales

5.2

7.7

3.9

5.2

6.2

9.0

13.4

6.8

9.0

10.7

300

34

5

103

803

10

1

0

19

5

891

115

16

225

2,366

13

10

5

10

10

7

10

15

10

10

 1 Quantity is in thousands of bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 2004 39 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to

contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
ACCESS TO REPORTS!!

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ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race,

color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status.

(Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for

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equal opportunity provider and employer.
USDA Data Users’ Meeting October 18, 2004

Hampton Inn & Suites

Chicago, Illinois

(312) 832-0330

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The

purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the

Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and

World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be

included in the meeting.

For registration details or additional information for the Data Users’ Meeting, see the NASS homepage at

www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Karlyn McCutcheon (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at karlyn_mccutcheon@nass.usda.gov.

This Data Users’ Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 19, 2004. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For more information about the outlook meeting and to register contact Jim

Robb (Livestock and Marketing Information Center) at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.