Cr Pr 2-2 (12-99)a

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released December 10, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department

of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Cotton Up 2 percent

All cotton production is forecast at 16.9 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month, and up

21 percent from 1998. Yield is expected to average 604 pounds per harvested acre, down 21 pounds

from last year. Texas production was increased 300,000 bales from November’s forecast, while

California was increased 50,000 bales. On November 28, U.S. harvest was 88 percent complete,

compared to the 5-year average of 87 percent.

All oranges: The forecast of the 1999-00 U.S. all orange crop is 12.2 million tons, up 1 percent from

October and up 24 percent from last season. Florida's all orange forecast is 214 million boxes

(9.63 million tons), 1 percent more than the October 1 forecast and 15 percent higher than the

186 million boxes (8.36 million tons) utilized last season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are

forecast at 124 million boxes (5.58 million tons), unchanged from October and 11 percent higher than

last season. Florida’s Valencia forecast of 90.0 million boxes (4.05 million tons) is 3 percent above the

October 1 forecast and 22 percent higher than last season’s final utilization. Texas orange production is

forecast at 1.60 million boxes (68,000 tons), unchanged from October and up 12 percent from last

season. California and Arizona orange production forecasts were carried forward from the October

forecast.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1999-00 season is forecast at

1.60 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from October. The final all orange yield for

1998-99 as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association was a record high 1.63 gallons per

box. Projected yields for 1999-00 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the

January Crop Production report.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on December 10, 1999.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Richard E. Rominger

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Beans, Dry Edible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Citrus ............................................................................ 6

Coffee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 

Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Tobacco, Burley .................................................................... 5

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 4 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted December 1, 1999

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Nov 1 Dec 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL 3

 GA

 KS 3

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM 3

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL 3

 GA

 KS 3

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA 3

 US

475.0

248.0

900.0

620.0

80.0

1,280.0

16.5

525.0

940.0

357.0

60.3

705.0

120.0

286.0

445.0

3,300.0

91.0

10,448.8

15.5

180.0

7.3

32.0

234.8

475.0

263.5

900.0

800.0

80.0

1,280.0

16.5

525.0

940.0

357.0

67.6

705.0

120.0

286.0

445.0

3,332.0

91.0

10,683.6

560.0

239.0

960.0

585.0

88.0

1,450.0

28.0

595.0

1,180.0

375.0

67.0

810.0

170.0

315.0

565.0

5,000.0

109.0

13,096.0

11.2

259.0

7.0

32.0

309.2

560.0

250.2

960.0

844.0

88.0

1,450.0

28.0

595.0

1,180.0

375.0

74.0

810.0

170.0

315.0

565.0

5,032.0

109.0

13,405.2

559

1,177

645

887

489

578

404

586

737

471

640

699

560

587

589

524

765

619

830

941

658

791

904

559

1,156

645

899

489

578

404

586

737

471

642

699

560

587

589

526

765

625

540

1,205

710

1,231

524

530

411

702

716

582

716

462

480

450

476

461

819

581

836

1,112

686

825

1,063

540

1,188

710

1,194

524

530

411

702

716

582

714

462

480

450

476

463

819

592

540

1,245

715

1,272

524

513

411

726

708

595

716

462

424

434

501

490

819

594

750

1,112

583

795

1,054

540

1,223

715

1,223

524

513

411

726

708

595

704

462

424

434

501

492

819

604

553.0

608.0

1,209.0

1,146.0

81.5

1,542.0

13.9

641.0

1,444.0

350.0

80.4

1,026.0

140.0

350.0

546.0

3,600.0

145.1

13,475.9

26.8

352.8

10.0

52.7

442.3

553.0

634.8

1,209.0

1,498.8

81.5

1,542.0

13.9

641.0

1,444.0

350.0

90.4

1,026.0

140.0

350.0

546.0

3,652.7

145.1

13,918.2

630.0

620.0

1,430.0

1,550.0

96.0

1,550.0

24.0

900.0

1,740.0

465.0

100.0

780.0

150.0

285.0

590.0

5,100.0

186.0

16,196.0

17.5

600.0

8.5

53.0

679.0

630.0

637.5

1,430.0

2,150.0

96.0

1,550.0

24.0

900.0

1,740.0

465.0

108.5

780.0

150.0

285.0

590.0

5,153.0

186.0

16,875.0 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 5 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

1997-98 and Forecasted December 1, 1999

State

Production

1997 1998 1999 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 6,934.6 5,365.4 6,395.0

1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Burley Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State,

and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted December 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Type 31

 IN

 KY

 MO 1

 NC

 OH

 TN

 VA

 WV 1

 US

8,500

215,000

2,700

8,100

9,800

51,000

10,400

1,600

307,100

6,500

210,000

2,300

8,400

9,800

51,000

11,000

1,700

300,700

2,000

1,935

2,130

1,450

1,830

1,795

1,940

1,350

1,896

1,800

1,800

1,950

1,550

1,720

1,850

2,250

1,300

1,814

18,690

470,400

7,035

13,314

22,230

93,330

20,574

3,060

648,633

17,000

416,025

5,751

11,745

17,934

91,545

20,176

2,160

582,336

11,700

378,000

4,485

13,020

16,856

94,350

24,750

2,210

545,371 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1998-99

Month

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested 1998 1999

1998 1999 1998 1999

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oct

Nov

3,785

3,785

3,225

3,205

2,240

2,215

1,625

1,585

3,165

3,250

3,850

3,480
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 6 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1997-98, 1998-99 and Forecasted December 1, 1999 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless 6

 FL

 Other

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 5 6

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 7

 CA 4 7

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus

 FL

350

44,000

140,000

1,350

185,700

650

25,000

104,000

175

129,825

1,000

69,000

244,000

1,525

315,525

2,250

18,300

30,600

650

800

8,000

49,550

4,800

63,150

600

2,400

5,200

8,200

2,600

21,000

23,600

2,850

40

550

21,000

112,000

1,250

134,800

600

17,000

73,700

180

91,480

1,150

38,000

185,700

1,430

226,280

1,800

17,800

28,700

550

750

7,500

47,050

6,100

61,400

950

1,500

4,950

7,400

3,450

16,200

19,650

2,550

80

400

40,000

124,000

1,300

165,700

500

27,000

90,000

300

117,800

900

67,000

214,000

1,600

283,500

2,100

18,500

27,000

500

650

8,000

46,000

5,500

60,150

700

2,300

6,400

9,400

3,900

20,500

24,400

2,600

90

13

1,650

6,300

57

8,020

25

938

4,680

7

5,650

38

2,588

10,980

64

13,670

101

777

1,301

28

27

268

2,106

192

2,593

23

90

247

360

99

798

897

128

2

21

787

5,040

53

5,901

22

638

3,317

8

3,985

43

1,425

8,357

61

9,886

81

757

1,220

23

25

251

2,000

244

2,520

36

56

235

327

131

616

747

115

4

15

1,500

5,580

55

7,150

19

1,013

4,050

13

5,095

34

2,513

9,630

68

12,245

95

786

1,148

21

22

268

1,955

220

2,465

26

86

304

416

148

779

927

117

4 1

 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 

2

 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, KEarly Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3

 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early

(including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year

carried forward from earlier forecast. 5

 Excludes White Seedless economic abandonment of 5,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 6

 Excludes Colored Seedless economic abandonment of 1,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 7 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 7 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 1997-99 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM

NY

ND

OR

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

135.0

135.0

100.0

22.0

315.0

175.0

12.2

190.0

12.0

44.0

620.0

9.0

15.0

5.8

38.0

9.8

32.0

1,869.8

110.0

170.0

105.0

20.0

300.0

190.0

16.6

195.0

10.5

31.0

750.0

8.7

15.0

6.0

40.0

7.3

39.0

2,014.1

135.0

165.0

105.0

22.0

350.0

205.0

26.5

210.0

1.0

31.0

630.0

11.5

20.0

6.7

36.0

8.3

40.0

2,003.0

132.0

120.0

98.0

20.0

305.0

165.0

11.7

180.0

12.0

43.5

565.0

8.9

14.0

5.2

38.0

9.5

31.0

1,758.8

105.0

155.0

103.0

19.0

295.0

175.0

16.0

188.0

9.5

30.0

710.0

8.6

13.5

5.9

40.0

7.2

37.0

1,917.7

132.0

155.0

103.0

20.9

350.0

165.0

25.7

187.0

1.0

30.2

570.0

10.8

18.0

6.6

36.0

8.0

38.0

1,857.2

Yield per Acre Production

1997 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM

NY

ND

OR

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

2,270

1,900

2,200

1,900

1,620

1,550

2,200

2,060

1,700

1,560

1,260

2,040

1,020

800

2,240

1,800

2,260

1,670

1,480

1,850

2,050

2,000

1,500

1,450

2,190

1,950

1,800

1,420

1,380

1,770

1,000

510

2,230

1,600

2,180

1,586

1,970

1,950

2,050

1,850

2,100

1,550

1,770

2,000

1,800

1,370

1,450

1,610

1,490

800

2,080

1,550

2,090

1,781

3,000

2,280

2,156

380

4,941

2,558

257

3,708

204

679

7,119

182

143

42

850

171

700

29,370

1,554

2,868

2,112

380

4,425

2,538

350

3,666

171

426

9,798

152

135

30

890

115

808

30,418

2,600

3,023

2,112

387

7,350

2,558

454

3,740

18

414

8,265

174

268

53

750

124

793

33,083 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 8 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1997-99

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Large Lima

 CA

Baby Lima

 CA

Navy

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NM

 ND

 OR

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MN

 NE

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

30.0

37.0

0.2

3.8

150.0

58.0

6.0

5.0

160.0

0.9

2.0

385.9

0.3

5.5

1.4

3.0

96.0

4.0

110.2

3.3

1.3

3.5

8.1

26.0

13.0

0.6

1.5

75.0

51.0

5.0

2.0

120.0

0.4

255.5

0.2

7.5

2.5

97.0

6.0

113.2

1.5

0.3

1.0

2.8

25.0

27.0

5.4

150.0

80.0

7.0

195.0

1.2

2.0

440.6

6.6

2.8

115.0

1.1

8.0

133.5

2.5

0.6

1.8

4.9

29.0

36.0

0.2

3.7

145.0

56.0

5.9

5.0

147.0

0.9

1.9

365.6

0.3

5.4

1.3

2.5

94.0

3.9

107.4

3.2

1.3

3.5

8.0

25.0

12.0

0.6

1.5

74.0

46.0

4.8

2.0

114.0

0.4

243.3

0.2

7.4

2.2

93.2

5.5

108.5

1.4

0.3

1.0

2.7

24.0

26.0

5.3

150.0

64.0

6.2

175.0

1.2

1.8

403.5

6.5

2.5

104.0

1.1

7.5

121.6

2.5

0.6

1.8

4.9
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 9 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre Production

1997 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Large Lima

 CA

Baby Lima

 CA

Navy

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NM

 ND

 OR

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MN

 NE

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

2,480

2,510

1,500

2,460

1,580

1,650

1,980

1,840

1,320

2,330

2,160

1,511

1,670

2,220

1,690

1,600

2,100

2,310

2,096

2,410

2,150

2,230

2,288

1,250

1,700

1,500

2,330

1,600

1,620

2,130

2,000

1,550

2,250

1,598

1,500

2,140

1,360

1,990

2,310

2,003

2,210

2,330

2,200

2,222

1,710

2,600

2,150

2,300

1,560

1,950

1,460

1,920

2,060

1,809

2,110

1,600

2,030

2,450

2,240

2,042

2,080

2,000

2,110

2,082

718

902

3

91

2,290

926

117

92

1,943

21

41

5,524

5

120

22

40

1,974

90

2,251

77

28

78

183

312

204

9

35

1,180

745

102

40

1,767

9

3,887

3

158

30

1,855

127

2,173

31

7

22

60

410

675

114

3,450

998

121

2,555

23

37

7,298

137

40

2,111

27

168

2,483

52

12

38

102
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 10 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued)

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Pinto

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM

 ND

 OR

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

119.0

39.0

18.0

10.0

43.0

12.2

67.0

7.0

415.0

1.3

1.5

5.8

10.0

25.0

773.8

10.0

12.2

1.1

14.0

10.0

17.0

25.0

89.3

5.0

0.5

12.0

36.0

2.0

1.8

9.8

67.1

4.0

14.4

8.0

8.0

3.7

38.1

152.0

44.2

18.5

21.0

55.0

12.2

76.0

5.5

540.0

2.2

0.5

6.0

16.0

28.0

977.1

9.5

10.0

1.6

14.0

11.0

13.0

16.0

0.9

76.0

5.5

0.9

9.0

34.0

2.0

5.5

7.3

64.2

5.5

17.6

13.0

13.0

6.0

55.1

135.0

31.2

16.5

9.0

38.0

13.9

60.0

1.0

363.0

2.4

0.6

6.7

9.0

28.0

714.3

8.0

15.0

0.8

17.0

11.0

19.0

17.7

2.0

90.5

3.5

1.0

9.0

38.0

2.0

5.0

8.3

66.8

2.0

19.2

14.0

11.0

4.5

50.7

105.5

38.2

16.4

10.0

41.0

11.7

59.7

7.0

376.0

1.3

1.4

5.2

10.0

24.3

707.7

10.0

11.2

1.1

14.0

9.5

16.6

24.5

86.9

5.0

0.5

11.5

34.0

2.0

1.6

9.5

64.1

4.0

14.2

7.5

7.0

3.7

36.4

138.0

43.5

17.7

20.0

52.0

12.0

73.7

4.5

510.0

2.2

0.5

5.9

16.0

27.0

923.0

8.5

9.4

1.6

13.0

10.5

12.6

15.5

0.9

72.0

5.5

0.9

9.0

32.0

2.0

5.2

7.2

61.8

5.5

17.2

12.2

12.6

6.0

53.5

128.5

30.6

15.8

9.0

24.0

13.5

54.0

1.0

332.0

2.3

0.6

6.6

9.0

27.0

653.9

8.0

12.5

0.8

17.0

10.5

14.8

17.5

2.0

83.1

3.5

1.0

9.0

36.0

2.0

4.7

8.0

64.2

2.0

18.7

10.2

10.0

4.5

45.4
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 11 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre Production

1997 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Pinto

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM

 ND

 OR

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

1,890

2,200

1,920

1,400

1,350

2,200

1,990

1,600

1,240

2,310

1,210

800

2,350

2,270

1,543

1,980

2,210

2,450

1,640

1,720

2,200

1,580

1,862

1,800

2,200

1,040

1,600

1,650

1,500

1,800

1,548

1,550

2,290

1,650

1,360

2,510

1,920

1,900

2,100

2,000

1,470

1,400

2,200

1,880

2,040

1,340

1,910

600

510

2,380

2,140

1,572

1,380

1,810

2,000

1,310

1,570

2,000

1,350

2,110

1,575

850

2,220

1,000

1,410

1,600

1,690

1,600

1,362

1,070

2,170

1,210

1,500

2,500

1,718

1,950

2,170

1,850

1,890

1,430

2,240

2,030

1,800

1,460

1,520

830

800

2,300

2,050

1,699

1,500

1,700

2,130

1,800

1,700

1,790

1,290

2,150

1,645

1,290

1,900

1,700

1,660

1,350

1,510

1,550

1,614

1,250

2,230

1,400

1,450

2,090

1,815

1,991

842

315

140

555

257

1,188

112

4,644

30

17

42

235

552

10,920

198

248

27

230

163

365

387

1,618

90

11

120

543

33

24

171

992

62

325

124

95

93

699

2,617

914

354

293

726

264

1,386

92

6,832

42

3

30

380

578

14,511

117

170

32

170

165

252

209

19

1,134

47

20

90

450

32

88

115

842

59

373

148

189

150

919

2,512

664

292

170

343

302

1,096

18

4,860

35

5

53

207

554

11,111

120

213

17

306

178

265

225

43

1,367

45

19

153

597

27

71

124

1,036

25

417

143

145

94

824
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 12 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued)

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1997 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 Total

Black

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Garbanzo

 CA

 ID

 OR

 MT

 ND

 WA

 Total

Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM

 NY

 ND

 OR

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

20.5

10.0

12.0

42.5

4.0

1.6

32.0

4.0

41.6

2.0

2.3

80.0

7.0

3.0

13.0

27.0

134.3

30.0

12.0

42.0

9.0

7.1

3.3

4.9

24.3

6.0

1.3

0.9

2.6

7.0

6.0

1.0

4.0

8.2

2.2

1.5

3.9

1.0

45.6

13.1

11.0

8.0

32.1

2.5

0.9

27.0

3.0

33.4

2.5

0.7

5.0

135.0

15.0

3.0

10.5

63.0

2.2

3.0

239.9

33.0

5.5

38.5

5.0

10.6

3.9

4.0

5.0

28.5

7.5

6.5

0.6

1.5

8.0

5.5

0.4

1.0

3.0

2.5

8.5

1.9

9.0

0.9

2.0

58.8

19.8

15.0

8.0

42.8

2.5

1.3

31.0

2.6

37.4

1.0

0.8

4.8

108.0

10.6

7.0

9.5

41.0

3.2

185.9

39.5

13.2

52.7

16.5

11.8

2.7

12.1

10.0

5.4

58.5

10.0

14.2

0.6

5.5

11.0

8.0

0.5

2.0

1.8

5.0

4.6

6.2

1.0

2.0

71.9

20.1

9.0

12.0

41.1

4.0

1.5

31.0

3.5

40.0

1.6

2.3

78.0

6.0

2.9

13.0

25.5

129.3

29.0

11.2

40.2

9.0

6.9

3.2

4.9

24.0

6.0

1.2

0.9

2.3

6.5

5.0

0.9

4.0

7.9

2.2

1.4

3.9

0.9

43.1

12.8

11.0

8.0

31.8

2.5

0.9

26.0

2.7

32.1

2.5

0.5

4.9

134.0

12.6

2.8

10.0

60.0

2.2

2.8

232.3

31.0

4.9

35.9

5.0

10.3

3.9

3.8

5.0

28.0

7.5

6.3

0.6

1.3

8.0

4.8

0.2

0.9

3.0

2.5

8.2

1.8

8.1

0.9

1.7

55.8

19.3

15.0

8.0

42.3

2.5

1.2

31.0

2.4

37.1

1.0

0.5

4.8

108.0

9.8

6.4

9.0

37.0

3.2

179.7

38.5

11.8

50.3

16.5

11.7

2.4

11.7

8.0

5.4

55.7

10.0

13.5

0.6

5.1

11.0

5.6

0.5

1.6

1.7

3.3

4.3

5.6

1.0

1.7

65.0
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 13 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre Production

1997 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 Total

Black

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Garbanzo

 CA

 ID

 OR

 MT

 ND

 WA

 Total

Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM

 NY

 ND

 OR

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

2,300

1,670

2,330

2,170

1,750

1,530

1,680

1,340

1,650

500

2,170

1,790

1,420

1,590

1,530

1,310

1,641

2,400

1,000

2,007

1,670

1,580

1,750

1,570

1,633

1,920

2,080

2,110

1,870

1,400

1,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

2,140

1,000

2,230

1,890

1,601

2,150

1,820

2,310

2,075

1,400

2,000

1,100

1,630

1,190

1,400

1,800

2,180

1,570

1,370

2,000

1,470

1,360

2,500

2,390

1,534

1,840

1,690

1,819

1,600

1,320

1,510

2,210

1,180

1,493

1,270

950

2,170

2,000

1,340

1,210

1,000

1,670

1,300

1,520

1,290

1,940

600

2,220

2,120

1,253

2,120

2,070

2,260

2,128

1,000

1,830

1,600

1,420

1,555

1,100

2,000

2,130

2,090

1,530

1,800

1,570

1,340

2,470

1,872

2,080

1,700

1,990

1,730

1,250

920

1,200

1,100

1,110

1,330

2,040

2,130

2,170

1,860

1,860

1,340

2,400

2,000

1,250

1,520

1,910

1,110

2,100

2,000

1,837

462

150

280

892

70

23

520

47

660

8

50

1,400

85

46

199

334

2,122

695

112

807

150

109

56

77

392

115

25

19

43

91

75

18

60

79

47

14

87

17

690

275

200

185

660

35

18

285

44

382

35

9

107

2,100

172

56

147

816

55

67

3,564

570

83

653

80

136

59

84

59

418

95

60

13

26

107

58

2

15

39

38

106

35

49

20

36

699

409

310

181

900

25

22

496

34

577

11

10

102

2,260

150

115

141

496

79

3,364

800

201

1,001

285

146

22

140

88

60

741

204

288

13

95

205

75

12

32

21

50

82

62

21

34

1,194
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 14 NASS, USDA

Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1997-98 and Forecasted December 1, 1999

Crop and State

Utilized Production

1997 1998 1999

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

Native & Seedling

 AL

 AR 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

All Pecans

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

7,000

18,500

1,200

3,000

600

77,000

2,000

2,600

45,000

900

3,000

2,100

40,000

202,900

6,000

2,300

1,200

23,000

4,200

10,000

1,400

600

32,000

1,400

50,000

132,100

13,000

18,500

3,500

3,000

1,800

100,000

4,200

12,000

4,000

45,000

1,500

35,000

3,500

90,000

335,000

3,500

13,000

300

1,700

200

35,000

3,000

800

32,000

1,500

200

800

20,000

112,000

1,500

250

1,100

5,000

50

13,000

400

1,000

1,800

300

10,000

34,400

5,000

13,000

550

1,700

1,300

40,000

50

16,000

1,200

32,000

2,500

2,000

1,100

30,000

146,400

8,000

19,000

760

2,300

1,500

80,000

4,000

3,000

50,000

800

3,000

800

55,000

228,160

5,000

3,040

1,400

10,000

3,500

14,000

1,000

500

32,000

300

25,000

95,740

13,000

19,000

3,800

2,300

2,900

90,000

3,500

18,000

4,000

50,000

1,300

35,000

1,100

80,000

323,900 1 Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 15 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 1997-99

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

426.0

30.3

400.0

32.0

888.3

21.0

2.2

35.0

0.6

58.8

447.0

32.5

435.0

32.6

947.1

445.0

32.7

425.0

28.7

931.4

15.0

2.3

40.0

2.5

59.8

460.0

35.0

465.0

31.2

991.2

40.1

90.0

29.7

32.9

36.9

40.1

32.4

29.7

18.3

33.4

40.1

86.1

29.7

32.6

36.6

36.5

87.6

34.0

34.0

37.1

40.0

32.9

34.0

27.6

35.2

36.6

84.0

34.0

33.5

37.0

15,535

2,925

10,716

827

30,003

701

84

846

75

1,706

16,236

3,009

11,562

902

31,709

17,083

2,727

11,880

1,053

32,743

842

71

1,040

11

1,964

17,925

2,798

12,920

1,064

34,707

16,243

2,865

14,450

976

34,534

600

76

1,360

69

2,105

16,843

2,941

15,810

1,045

36,639 1 Net tons.

Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

Hawaii 1997-99

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00

Acres Acres Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

HI 5,800 6,100 6,400 1,620 1,560 1,640 9,400 9,500 10,500

1 Parchment basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 16 NASS, USDA

November Weather Summary

A remarkably warm, dry pattern that stressed developing winter wheat in the Plains, Ohio Valley, and

the South began to break down toward month’s end. Nevertheless, no rain fell during November in the

southern Plains or the Southwest, and totals greater than one-half inch were scarce on the Plains except

from eastern Nebraska southward into eastern Texas. In contrast, a month-long spell of heavy

precipitation kept the Northwest wet, especially from the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada westward

to the coast. The 9-month drought persisted in the interior Northwest, however, primarily from

southeastern Oregon and southern Idaho southward into the northern Great Basin. Farther east, drought

stretched through a 16th month in much of the middle and lower Ohio Valley, despite beneficial latemonth showers. Meanwhile, a fourth consecutive month of extremely dry weather left topsoil parched

from central and eastern Texas to the Delta.

Fueled by an early- to mid-month warm spell that produced well over 800 daily record highs and more

than six dozen monthly record highs, November temperatures averaged above normal nearly nationwide. 

Monthly departures ranged from +4 to +12 degrees F on the Plains and +4 to +8 degrees F in the

Midwest. Well-above-normal temperatures were also observed elsewhere, except along the Gulf Coast,

where near-normal readings prevailed.

General Crop Comments: Dry weather provided excellent conditions for finishing the row crop harvest, completing fall tillage, and applying fertilizer. Moisture shortages steadily increased, hindering

winter wheat germination and growth, although record warmth stimulated development where adequate

moisture was available. After mid-month, dry soils forced some producers in the southern Great Plains

and Southeast to delay planting of winter grains. A wet weather pattern developed in the Pacific

Northwest, ending drought conditions along the coast and easing dry conditions in some inland areas. In

the Atlantic Coastal Plains, the harvest pace gradually accelerated, as a pattern of wet weather was

replaced by favorably dry weather.

By November 14, the Nation’s corn harvest was 98 percent complete, more than 1 week ahead of last

year’s 93-percent pace and 2 weeks ahead of the 91-percent average for this date. Early in the month,

harvest slowed in the Corn Belt, as progress neared completion in most areas. The end of the harvest

season approached far ahead of normal in the eastern Corn Belt, and well ahead of normal in the western

Corn Belt. As of November 7, harvest progress was more than 30 percentage points ahead of normal in

Michigan, and more than 20 percentage points ahead of normal in Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin. 

Harvest accelerated in Colorado, South Dakota, and Pennsylvania early in the month and remained

active through mid-month, as dry weather aided progress. 

Ninety-seven percent of the soybean crop was harvested by November 14, slightly ahead of last year’s

96-percent pace and more than a week ahead of the 94-percent average for this date. The harvest pace

slowed dramatically in the Corn Belt, where most of the acreage was harvested by the beginning of the

month. Harvest activity remained brisk in the Mississippi Delta, where warm weather quickly ripened

double-cropped and other late-planted fields. On November 7, progress was well ahead of normal along

the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi River Valleys. In the Atlantic Coastal Plains, harvest gained

momentum as a dry weather pattern emerged and soils gradually dried. The end of the harvest season

approached well ahead of normal in Tennessee and Kentucky. 

Nearly two-thirds of the cotton was picked when the month began, behind last year’s pace, but ahead of

the average for this date. In Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee, harvest rapidly neared completion early

in the month. On November 7, progress was more than 30 percentage points ahead of normal in

Oklahoma and 15 percentage points ahead of normal in California. Picking was active in the southern

Great Plains, Southwest, and Southeast early in the month, but lagged well behind normal in North

Carolina, New Mexico, and Arizona. Dry weather aided harvesting in New Mexico, where the pace

accelerated and advanced to near normal by mid-month. As the month progressed, picking gradually

accelerated in the Southeast, but progress remained far behind normal in North Carolina. In Texas,

picking steadily progressed, but the harvest pace lagged behind the 5-year average. Harvest activity

diminished in Oklahoma near mid-month, as the season advanced well beyond the peak. By November

28, eighty-eight percent of the crop was harvested in the U.S., compared with 90 percent last year and

the normal pace of 87 percent.

Ninety-five percent of the winter wheat acreage was planted by November 14, equal to last year’s pace

and the 5-year average. By mid-month, planting was complete in the Corn Belt and central and northern

Great Plains. Dry weather aided sowing in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oregon early in the month, while

increasing moisture shortages limited planting progress in Texas, especially after mid-month. The

planting pace was also slow in North Carolina, where sowing was delayed while farmers concentrated on
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 17 NASS, USDA

harvesting other crops. Planting was nearly complete in the Pacific Northwest and Mississippi Delta by

mid-month, but remained active in the Southeast and California after mid-month. Ninety-one percent of

the acreage was emerged on November 28, three percentage points behind last year and the 5-year

average. Soft red winter wheat rapidly emerged in the eastern Corn Belt early in the month, despite

increasing moisture shortages. Emergence lagged behind normal in Oregon and Texas due to dry soils. 

Poor stands and slow growth limited livestock grazing in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Conditions

deteriorated in Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota due to a combination of moisture shortages and

record heat. Unseasonable warmth, usually beneficial to crop growth, aided insect populations and

promoted disease development in the central and southern Great Plains.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.1 million acres, is up 25 percent from last year, but unchanged from the November estimate. American-Pima harvested acreage, at 309,200 acres, is up

32 percent from 1998.

Harvest of the Texas cotton crop progressed near normal throughout November under generally dry,

open conditions. However, the first hard freeze did not occur in the Plains until late November, so many

producers sprayed to aid harvest. On November 28, seventy-seven percent of the cotton acreage in

Texas was reported harvested. This compares to 78 percent for the 5-year average. Cotton stalk

destruction closely followed harvest in many areas. Dry weather aided harvesting in New Mexico

throughout November as progress advanced to near normal by mid-month. Cotton objective yield data

indicate Texas’ crop has the seventh lowest boll weights in the last 10 years.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) made good progress on

harvest and were virtually complete by mid-November. While the dry conditions were instrumental in

aiding a quick harvest, these conditions also led to some deterioration in the quality of the crop. Data

from objective yield surveys show boll weights in Arkansas and Mississippi were the lowest in the last

ten years, while Louisiana’s weight was ranked as the ninth lowest out of the last ten years.

Arizona’s cotton harvest gained momentum during mid-November, but was still behind average.

Seventy-nine percent of the acreage was harvested as of November 28, compared to 87 percent for the 5-

year average. California, at 96 percent harvested as of November 28, made great progress during the

first half of November and was nearly complete by the end of the month. Following harvest in

California, fields were being disced for pink bollworm control. December 1 cotton objective yield

counts show boll weights in California are the lowest in the last ten years.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), harvest progress

gradually accelerated during November. However, North Carolina continues to lag behind normal due

to adverse weather conditions early in the harvest season. Alabama producers harvested 95 percent of

their acreage as of November 28, compared to 94 percent on average. On November 28, Georgia was

4 points ahead of average with 86 percent of the acreage harvested, and South Carolina was 5 points

ahead of average with 92 percent harvested. North Carolina continues to be behind normal due to the

affects of earlier hurricanes and subsequent wet fields. Generally dry conditions throughout November

has allowed progress to accelerate. As of November 28, seventy-two percent of the acreage was

harvested, compared to 87 percent on average.

American-Pima production is forecast at 679,000 bales, up 54 percent from 1998's output, but down

5,500 bales from the November forecast. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,054 pounds per harvested acre,

only 2 pounds per acre below the record high yield set in 1997. The production in California was

unchanged from the November forecast, while Arizona’s production was reduced 2,000 bales. Harvest

made great progress in Arizona during the last two weeks of November, but remained behind the

average harvest pace. In California, harvest progressed rapidly during the first half of November and

remained ahead of normal. By the end of November, harvest was virtually complete. New Mexico’s

production was reduced 1,500 bales from November and the Texas crop was lowered 2,000 bales.

Ginnings totaled 13,587,200 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 11,309,550 running

bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 14,734,600 running bales in 1997.

Burley Tobacco: U.S. burley tobacco production is forecast at 545 million pounds, up 2 percent from last month but down 6 percent from last year and 16 percent below 1997. Yields for 1999 are expected 

to average 1,814 pounds per acre, 64 pounds above last month’s forecast but 82 pounds below the

average for 1998. Growers are expected to harvest 300,700 acres, 2 percent below both last month and
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 18 NASS, USDA

last year. Burley markets opened on November 29. As of December 7, total gross sales for the season

totaled 179.8 million pounds.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.48 million pounds for November, 10 percent lower than October but 7 percent higher than a year ago. Area devoted to papaya production totaled

3,205 acres, 1 percent lower than October and 15 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling

1,585 acres, was 2 percent lower than last month and 28 percent lower than last November. November

weather conditions were variable with a mix of sunshine and showers.

Dry Beans: Production of dry edible beans is estimated at 33.1 million cwt for 1999, 9 percent above 1998 and 13 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.86 million acres, down

3 percent from 1998 but 6 percent above 1997. Average yield, at 1,781 pounds per acre, increased

195 pounds from 1998. Production is up in 1999 for all estimating states except New Mexico, New

York, North Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming. 

California and Michigan had major increases in production from 1998. Michigan produced 7.35 million

cwt, the highest since 1982 when production was 7.98 million cwt. Michigan also had a record high

yield of 2,100 pounds per acre, 250 pounds greater than the previous high of 1,850 pounds per acre set

in 1991. California produced 2.60 million cwt for 1999, 67 percent above 1998.

In North Dakota early harvest progress was a week behind average due to late plantings in the spring,

and wet weather during early September. However, due to dry conditions during October, harvest was

virtually complete by the third week, slightly ahead of average. Wet conditions during the growing

season in some areas of the Northeast district promoted diseases such as white mold which contributed

to abandoned acreage.

Michigan’s dry bean harvest was completed by the third week in October, well ahead of normal. Timely

rains lessened the effect of root rot and dry conditions late in the growing season held white mold in

check. The result was a record yield.

In Nebraska yield is the second highest in the decade, however, hail damage during the growing season

and rain damage before harvest in some areas left a large amount of unharvested acres. In California

harvest went well this season with good quality reported.

Harvest in Idaho was completed ahead of average due to good weather conditions during harvest. Yields

for dryland producers in Colorado are higher due to adequate moisture during the growing season.

In New York, some acreage was abandoned due to the effects of dry weather during the summer.

Unharvested acres in Minnesota were up due to wet conditions in the Northwest district of the State. In

Wisconsin, yields were lower due to hot and dry conditions during the end of July. Utah’s dry bean

production is up this year due to ample rains during the growing season in their major growing area. 

Yield results were mixed in Montana. Some growers had excellent growing conditions and produced a

favorable crop, while other areas received significant moisture during harvest which caused poor quality

and abandonment. 

Production is above 1998 levels for all varieties except black, pink, and pinto. Pinto, the largest variety,

decreased 23 percent from 1998, while navy, the next largest variety, increased 88 percent.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 1999-00 grapefruit crop for the United States is 2.47 million tons. The forecast is down 6 percent from the initial October forecast and down 2 percent from last season. The

Florida grapefruit crop is forecast at 46.0 million boxes (1.96 million tons), unchanged from the special

November 1 forecast that Florida conducted due to Hurricane Irene that passed through in mid-October,

but down 8 percent from the October forecast. The white seedless forecast, at 18.5 million boxes

(786,000 tons), is down 10 percent from October but up 4 percent from last year. The colored seedless

utilization is forecast at 27.0 million boxes (1.15 million tons), 7 percent less than the initial forecast and

6 percent less than the 1998-99 season. The seedy grapefruit crop is expected to total 500,000 boxes

(21,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 9 percent less than the previous season. The

Texas grapefruit forecast remained at 5.50 million boxes (220,000 tons) and is down 10 percent from

last season. The California and Arizona forecasts are brought forward from earlier forecasts.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 19 NASS, USDA

Tangelos: The 1999-00 tangelo forecast from Florida remains at 2.60 million boxes (117,000 tons), 2 percent more than last season’s utilized production. Average fruit size and below average droppage

contributed to the increase from last season. Movement to date is considerably less than this time last

year.

Tangerines: The 1999-00 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 416,000 tons, up 27 percent from the freeze-damaged crop last season. Florida’s tangerine forecast continues at 6.40 million boxes

(304,000 tons), 29 percent higher than last season. Below average fruit drop and higher fruit count per

tree lead to the increase over last season’s final utilization. The sizes of Florida tangerines are mostly

below average. Nearly a third of Florida’s tangerine crop has been harvested as of December 1. The

California and Arizona forecasts are brought forward from earlier forecasts.

Temples: Florida’s 1999-00 Temple forecast is 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons), unchanged from the initial forecast in October and 17 percent higher than the 1.80 million boxes recorded last season. Fruit

sizes continue to be below average. Loss from droppage is average. Harvest has not yet started.

K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 1999-00 is 90,000 boxes (4,050 tons), an increase of 20,000 boxes from October’s initial forecast and 10,000 boxes more than the final utilization

last season. Just over 80,000 boxes have been utilized as of December 1.

Florida Citrus: Growers and caretakers have been irrigating to maintain good tree and fruit condition in Florida’s citrus growing counties because of dry weather. There was limited new foliage due to the

lack of moisture, shorter days, and cooler temperatures. By the end of November, most of the early

types of fruit had excellent on-tree coloring suitable for fresh pack. Maturity continues to be a problem

on many early crops due to prolonged and multiple blooms last spring. Some fresh fruit picking crews

were spot picking fruit to avoid the later bloom green fruit. All of the packinghouses and most of the

processing plants were running full time. Some of the processors were running around the clock to

move the fruit they have committed. Caretakers were very busy during the month cutting cover crops

that had grown out of control with the help of the heavy rains in October. Some sprays were applied to

help prevent brown rot. Growers were still pushing and burning dead trees. Some resetting continued in

the larger groves.

Texas Citrus: Texas is looking forward to a good crop this year. Grapefruit and early orange quality is very good. Movement to date is well ahead of last year’s pace. No adverse weather has affected the Rio

Grande Valley.

California Citrus: Picking of the 1998-99 Valencia oranges was completed and the harvest of the 1999-00 navel oranges gathered momentum in November. Color and maturity have been behind normal

progress in the new crop navels. Lemon and grapefruit picking was active in southern California. 

Tangerine harvest was also active.

California Fruits and Nuts: With the harvest completed for many noncitrus fruit and nut crops, growers kept busy with pruning, tree removal, and planting of cover crops. Other activities included

fumigating the ground in preparation for new settings of peach, prune, walnut, and almond trees. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 20 NASS, USDA

Kiwifruit and persimmon harvests were still active in November, but picking of grapes for fresh and

wine uses was winding down. Olive and pecan harvests were also near completion by month’s end.

Pecans: The December forecast for 1999 pecan production is 324 million pounds, unchanged from October. This compares to last year’s 146 million pounds. Pecans, known for their alternate bearing

pattern, were expected to yield a large 1999 crop. However, dry weather has limited overall quantity as

well as quality. Improved varieties are expected to account for 228 million pounds of the total while

native and seedling varieties are projected to make up the difference of 95.7 million pounds.

The Georgia’s portion, at 90.0 million pounds, is down 10.0 million from the October forecast. The lack

of rain has seriously affected quality in non-irrigated orchards while irrigated groves are generally

producing better quality nuts.

The Texas forecast has also been lowered 10.0 million pounds to 80.0 million. The colder temperatures

pushed harvest progress pass the halfway mark. Dry conditions and insect damage are limiting factors. 

New Mexico’s production is expected to reach 50.0 million pounds, with the crop in generally good

condition.

Oklahoma was the only other December forecast state to change from the October forecast, increasing

their estimate to 35.0 million pounds. If realized, this crop would tie 1997's crop as being the largest

since 47.0 million were harvested in 1988.

Sugarcane: Production is forecast at a record high 36.6 million tons, 6 percent above the previous record of 34.7 million tons set last year. U.S. sugarcane growers intend to harvest a record high

991,200 acres for sugar and seed during the 1999 crop year, 5 percent more than last year’s final

harvested acres. The record high acreage is due to a 30,000 acre expansion in Louisiana and a

13,000 acre increase in Florida. Yield is forecast at 37.0 tons per acre, slightly above last year’s yield of

36.6 tons. Louisiana’s forecasted yield, at 34.0 tons per acre is a record high, 4.3 tons above the

previous record high set last year.

Harvest steadily progressed with few rain delays. In Florida, all mills were grinding cane and about

one-fourth of the acreage was harvested by the end of November. Louisiana’s harvest was 61 percent

complete as of November 29, slightly ahead of the 60-percent average for that date. By the end of the

month, harvest was nearly complete in Hawaii, but remained active in Texas.

Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 10.5 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 1999-00 season, up 11 percent from the 1998-99 season and the largest output since the 1962-63 season. Coffee

production from the island of Hawaii (includes the Kona districts), is expected to be lower than last

season. Less than favorable weather, heavy pruning the previous season, and relatively low farm prices

are responsible for the decline. Harvesting on the islands of Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai is

anticipated to show increases. Nearly all fields on these islands are irrigated, which offset the dry

conditions and uneven rainfall that affected growers on the island of Hawaii. Harvested acreage is

estimated at a record high 6,400 acres, up 5 percent from last season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 21 NASS, USDA

Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Cotton objective yield surveys were conducted to gather information on expected yields as of December 1. The objective yield surveys were conducted in the major producing States that

normally account for approximately 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected fields and

plots within fields are surveyed each month. At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After

the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year

harvesting loss.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield survey estimates were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. In addition, reports from cotton ginners in

each State were considered. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to

the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare

the published December 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The December 1 cotton production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made in January followed by end-of-season estimates in May. At the end of the marketing year,

administrative records are reviewed and revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. 

Harvested acres may be revised at any time a production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that

the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation

between the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the

final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 20-year (1979-1998) period is

computed; then the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." 

Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the

final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from

those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.8 percent. This

means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the

final estimate by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the

difference will not exceed 3.0 percent.

Changes between the December 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged

205,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast has been below the final

estimate 11 times and above 9 times. The difference does not imply that the December 1 cotton forecast

this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 1999 22 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics

Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-2127

Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-9526

Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488

Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270

Keith Lacy - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 11, 2000.
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