# pennsyLvania

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

SECRETARY



# March 7, 2014



# Mr. Shawn Garvin

Regional Administrator

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region III

1650 Arch Street (Mail Code: 

# 3RAOO)

Philadelphia, P A 19103-2029

Dear Mr. Garvin:

Enclosed for your approval is a revision to the Pennsylvania State Implementation Plan (SIP) to

update the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (MVEBs) in the "Maintenance Plan and Base Year

Inventory: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area" (Maintenance

Plan). The Maintenance Plan was developed according to Section 175A(b) of the Clean Air Act

(42 U.S.C.A. §7505a(b». This Maintenance Plan revision was developed in accordance with the

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) April 2012 guidance document titled, "Policy

Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 and Subsequent Minor Revisions for State Implementation

Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes." The Pennsylvania

Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) requests that the EPA use the direct final

rulemaking process to expedite the approval of this non-controversial SIP revision.

The Commonwealth has completed its public participation process for this SIP revision. DEP

opened a public comment period from December 14,2013, to January24, 2014, and scheduled a

public hearing to occur on January 23,2014, if requested by the public. No member of the

public requested a public hearing or requested to present testimony; DEP, therefore, cancelled

the hearing, with notice posted on its website. DEP received no comments on the proposed SIP

revision.

The following documents are enclosed for your approval:

1. Volume I: State Implementation Plan Revision: NO

x 

# Motor Vehicle Emission Budget

Revisions Based on the MOVES2010a Model- Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE)

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance. Revised MVEBs are included in this document.

2. Volume II: TechnicalSupport Document: State Implementation Plan Revision: NO

x



# Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the MOVES2010a Model ABE

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area.

3. Certification of public participation activities.

4. Appendix C

- Maintenance Plan Update for the ABE 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone

Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Using MOVES201OaRachel Carson State Office Building 

# I P.O. Box 2063 

# I Harrisburg, PA 17105-2063

717.787.2814 

# !J2!

Printed on Recycled Paper 

# C6--e www.depweb.state.pa.us

# Mr. 

# Shawn Garvin - 2 - March 7, 2014



# Technical Support Document

- Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory.

Appendix C of this SIP revision replaces Appendix C in the ABE Ozone Maintenance

Plan in its entirety.

5. Attachment 1: Table 2 and Table 5 of Volume II in Microsoft Excel format.

A paper copy and a disc containing a searchable PDF copy of the revised Maintenance Plan are

enclosed. I certify that the electronic files are an exact duplicate of the hard copy.

The EPA approved all of the components of the ABE Redesignation Request and the ABE

Ozone Maintenance Plan, including the MVEBs for 2009 and 2018, on March 4,2008,

(73 FR 11557) and redesignated the ABE Area to attainment for the 2008 eight-hour ozone

standard.

As you know, the EPA updated the model that estimates highway vehicle emissions. The new

model, the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES), better estimates emissions from

highway vehicles, but MOVES estimates much higher emissions of oxides of nitrogen, than the

Mobile6.2 model used to derive the MVEBs in the approved ABE Maintenance Plan. The

metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) for the area, the Northeastern Pennsylvania

Alliance (NEPA) MPO (Carbon County) and the Lehigh Valley MPO (Lehigh and Northampton

Counties), which are responsible for transportation planning in Carbon, Lehigh, and

Northampton Counties, use those approved MVEBs to satisfy transportation conformity

requirements. The MPOs are required to use the most up-to-date version of MOVES for all new

transportation planning that begins after March 2,2013. Approval of the updated MVEBs in the

Commonwealth's SIP will allow the MPOs to compare similarly generated emissions used in its

plans and the MVEBs, which will allow transportation projects to go forward in a timely manner.

If you have any questions or need additional information, please contact Joyce E. Epps, Director

of the Bureau of Air Quality, by email atjeepps@pa.gov or by telephone at 717.787.9702.

Sincerely,

E. Christopher Abruzzo

Secretary

Enclosures·

..**---------------------------~--~~~.** 

# l

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PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION AND INVOICE 

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## Alex Ha<ls 717-7879495

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## - PA DEP;Bmeau of Air 

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## Allentown PA 181051260 

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awarded to it hereunder, said vendor will not discriminate against any employee or other persollS on account of race, c910r, sex,

religious creed, ancestry, age or national origin and that the Commonwealth, upon receipt of satisfactory evidence of such discriminauon, shall have the right to cancel said contract Return this copy at once if you will not accept this advertisement under

the terms set forth.



# Return Original and two 

# caples (signed by the editor 01' 

# publisher) to the agency 

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Commonwealth to be billed only for aclual number of printed lines published,

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in the editions of said newspaper, in all respects as ordered and invoiced above; and that the Commonwealth is not charged

therefor at a rate higher than is cllarged any ordinary advertiser for a similar amount of matter occupying similar space and set in a



# similar matter, in said newspaper.

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# 22',d;~scribep before me this /

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# Prj)PQsed 

# Revisiorrto the 

# state Implementation_ Plan for the Motor Vehicle' Emiss,ions Budgets in the 'Allentown"BethleMm"castop -,(AB,E), ,1997



# , _ , :**"Eight-Hour,OIoileMaintena'nce_A~ai** 

# " ;

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# ._':, ,l'ublicHearing :, "'--": ';, -".\. ("",,/.-.

The·. Pennsylva-nia:;'Departmenf of· Environmental,-, Protection

.. (Depart- 

# ment). is' revislng'-.the 

# -motor'vet1ic1e emissions 

# Dudgets (MVEBs),' ,for thE!

,- Allento-wn;.Bethlehem"-Easto,n; (AI!E-) 1997- 

# _Elaht:..Hour_ Ozqne Mainte,'-

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## nan~e_ 

# Area '(A)3E:';Are''!J. ,The revised**budge~,** 

# a'Me i3-pproved,**btt~e** 

# 'Ll.S.-**Eqv:tronm~ntal:.prQteqlon** 

## A_geney, (EPA)/WJU 

## alloW..loca1.'transportatlon

pla'nnih:g a,gen'c:I!?s b·b,etter <:ompa're highway vehicle emissions in**trans~** 

## portation"plans, wi,th, MVE8s'in .the State::;lmplementation Plar,,(SIF).,The

SIP will pOW:**io'du~e,;highway,emi_ssi0tlfi e~tir:rl!a!ed**  

## -'1J?lng)l;1e "same:f,j:;o_in",

puter model that 'local pl,anmng',agencles ,'ana :req-ulredJeruse 

# .f9r**d~velop-",** 

## 109 

## -,their, ,transporiafi,on 'p[ans,-:;-The, gPA.:O'c!_eveloj?ed ,a "'heW :com-\,:ufer/

model/. tne, Molor:. Vehicle-

__ Emissions**--~rm'ulator"** 

## (MOVES)/"I{hiCh ;esti-'-,

, mates'**-emi~i6ns',** 

## tram-highway.**ye,~icles** 

## rhote ,accurately:, The,Depart;'

ment used the forme'r: EPA-approved model, MOBILE6, for**~estimatlng"** 

## highway:,'Vehic1es,**,~l1,1issi6ns'** 

## in' .the**,_ap'prov:e~,:-** 

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## .. ;:ElTllssions, of 'nitrogen**:o~ide_~"** 

## 'andi

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## c;ompounds;,_ are

- estimated'_b'lJh'e'iMOYE:Q!-mode:I', tc!' be :'i;!.I_**h1ghe~** 

## "

levels**-'tlian:t~e;'** 

# f!!\ YEBs, approved lly-_EF'-A:Jd"the,

__ ABE:; Area' _,Malnten:ance

'Plan:**~Tne** 

## --Transportation Co.nformify :regulation**~req!!lih;lS':** 

## that- emissions:'

from _updat.i3:d IQc_al-trar:rspo(fation 'improvement :p[ans 

# do, not.-exceed" the

'MVEB**in.t~e·are~(s,approved,"appli.cable** 

## SIP. BY:,usiI)9Jhe:_same, model in-'transportation ,"planning _and : the: 

## ;SIP; ',-a niore,",f;eaUstlt Icomparison i

## ::b~t~een**th_~,tVo'_o:w!II'fes!:Jlt,** 

## which**wllLoff~r \~~,cti,;ms:~,of** **tl!"aTl~portatiQ~** 

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_ sour,ce,'inventory.'3he, Oepartmehf,:,.'w,iIl

;hold 'a -public:**hearin91.':lf_<.r~Ciue,sted,** 

## to.- rece_iv-.e"-comments,,arn-the -pr9Posai_ ' 

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## ,the'2I"1d_F 100r-::L1ttle**',SC;~Ylkl1l. ~oom**  

## " af.'the.-PennsYrvanla'-Departmen1_ of:**En'Vir()nrnentaI:,:Pr9tec;:.ti~n!** 

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# to re,serve- a" tiD1e.' I,; 

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## no ,person nas_ reql,.lf;!sfed toJestify'at**the':heari[lg,,:;th~'h'eair:irig:-will** 

## :be

cancelled. If, 

## the,**hea~in9 fs,:~t_ancefled,**  

## the,::Dep;;irtment' "wilt-' notifY: fhe

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## on '.the Bure_au-()f Alr-Qua'litY,webpage,', http://w;NW;d.ep:s:tate.pa:usJ:

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# P~rsons 

# 'with:' 'a'**,dis~bflitY_',whQ::wish** 

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## -', ':- :,_,_-_,'-i-,,:_,

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## _alehaas@pa

.. 90v.'TDD:_users may -,contact -the:AT&, T:R_el,ay_-S,erv.ice -af""

(809)-**65~,.598~** 

## to'**'~,iSCUS~ '~9W>th~-:-** **.DepartlJ}e,~t,:,** 

## _c,an'**:b~,~t'-ac_S;0n:'n,:'_<?da~7:** 

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## The" Departmenf-must,

# 'receiv~-':'~orrHlients': 

# 'no**lat~F',** 

# than**':.h~i1uarY~2~,** '20f4.

'Written _<:o"mments should- be"_sent, to :the atJe_nfior:r'-Qf':Kirif Dalal;,**'Chlef~** 

## Division _'of -Air, R,eso,urce'**'Mattc.j'gern~l"1ti** 

## Burea1,l-_0t.- Ai(Ql,J'ality" P 

# .0.: ,Box 8468, Harrisburg

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## PA 17105-8468,

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## Use 'ABEArea_MVEB-Revisions')n':the- sub 

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## Page 1/1 

# careerbuilder.oom**aparf~ IHomeFin~~TRJ** **HlJ,~,~ ~<1v,l."j''"''''''''_** 

# E. Christopher Abruzzo Tom Corbett

Secretary Governor 

# Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

FINAL

Volume I

State Implementation Plan Revision: NO X 

# Motor

Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the

MOVES2010a Model

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE)

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

February 2014

Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468

717-787-9495

# [This page intentionally left blank.]

# i 

# Table of Contents

VOLUME I

1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW OF GROUND LEVEL OZONE 1

1.1. 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards 1

1.2. ABE Area and Ozone SIP Revisions 2

1.3. EPA Requirements for Developing and Revising Maintenance Plans 4

1.4. Maintenance Plan Demonstration and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets 6

1.5. Non-Mobile Inventory Review 7

2. SOURCE CATEGORY EMISSIONS 9

2.1. Point Source Category Emissions 9

2.1.1. Control Measures 9

2.1.2. Growth Estimates in the Or iginal ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan 10

2.1.3. Point Source Category Conclusion 10

2.2. Area Source Category Emissions 12

2.2.1. Control Measures 12

2.2.2. Growth Estimates in the 2006 Maintenance Plan 12

2.2.3. Growth Estimates in MARAMA 2011 Regional Modeling Effort 14

2.2.4. Marcellus Shale Emissions 15

2.2.5. Area Source Category Conclusion 15

2.3. Nonroad Source Category Emissions 15

2.3.1. Control Measures 15

2.3.2. Growth Estimates 16

2.3.3. Nonroad Source Category Conclusion 16

2.4. Highway Source Category Emissions 16

2.4.1. Control Measures 16

2.4.2. Growth Estimates 17

2.4.3. Mobile Source Category Conclusion 18

3. SAFETY MARGINS 18

4. MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGET FO R TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY

19

5. CONCLUSION 20

VOLUME II

TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT – S EE VOLUME II TABLE OF CONTENTS

# ii TABLES

Table 1: ABE Area 2012 Design Values 5

Table 2a: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budge ts Calculated with MOVES2010a for NO X



# and with MOBILE6.2 for VOC for Lehigh Valley MPO (Lehigh and

Northampton Counties) 6

Table 2b: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budge ts Calculated with MOVES2010a for NO X



# and with MOBILE6.2 for VOC fo r NEPA MPO (Carbon County) 7

Table 3: Revised ABE NOX Emissions from 2004 to 2018 9

Table 4: 2009 Point Source Emissions – Ma intenance Plan Estimates Versus Actual

11

Table 5: 2018 Point Source Emissions – Ma intenance Plan Estimates Versus Revised

2018 Emissions 11

Table 6: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory

Updates from 2002 to 2009 13

Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory

Updates from 2009 to 2018 14

Table 8: Revised Motor Vehi cle Emissions Using MOVES2010a 18

Table 9a: Motor Vehicle Emissi ons Budgets – Lehigh Valley MPO 19

Table 9b: Motor Vehicle Emi ssions Budgets – NEPA MPO 20

APPENDICES

Appendix C: Maintenance Plan Update for the ABE (Carbon, Lehigh, and Northampton

Counties) 1997 Eight-Hour Maintenan ce Area: Motor Vehicle Emission

Budget Revisions Using MOVES2010a – See Appendix C Table of

Contents

ATTACHMENTS

Attachment 1: Volume II Tables 2 and 5 in Excel Format

# - 1 - 

# 1. Introduction and Overview of Ground-Level Ozone

Maintaining concentrations of ground-level ozon e below the health-based 8-hour ozone national

ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) is import ant because ozone is a serious human health

threat and can cause damage to importa nt food crops, forests, and wildlife.

Repeated exposure to ozone pollu tion may cause a variety of a dverse health effects for both

healthy people and those with existing condition s including: difficulty breathing, chest pains,

coughing, nausea, throat irritation, and congestio n. Ozone exposure can exacerbate bronchitis,

heart disease, emphysema and asthma, and redu ce lung capacity. Asthma is a significant and

growing threat to children and adults. Ozone can aggravate asthma, causing more asthma

attacks, increased use of medicati on, more medical treatment and mo re frequent visits to hospital

emergency clinics. Because ozone pollution usually forms in hot weather, anyone who spends

time outdoors in the summer may be affected, part icularly children, the elderly, outdoor workers

and people exercising. Children are most at risk from exposure to ozone because they are active

outside during the summertime wh en ozone levels are highest.

Ozone is one of the most pervasive and detr imental pollutants known to affect vegetation,

causing more injury to trees and crops than any other air pollutant in th e United States. Ozone

interferes with photosynthesis, th e process by which plants convert water and sunlight to food.

Ozone makes plants more susceptible to disease, insects, other pollutants and harsh weather. It

damages the foliage of trees and ot her plants, ruining the landscapes of cities, parks, forests, and

recreation areas. Research has shown that current ozone concentrations result in reductions in

wood growth of over 10 percent in forests of the Northeast United States. There is strong

scientific evidence showing that current levels of ozone are reducing crop yields, particularly in

sensitive species such as soybean, cotton, and peanuts. Annual crop loss alone from ozoneaffected soybeans in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio has been calculated to fall between $199 million

and $346 million. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated national

crop yield losses due to ozone in excess of $1 b illion annually. One of the key components of

ozone, oxides of nitrogen, contributes to fish kill s and algae blooms in sensitive waterways, such

as the Chesapeake Bay.

Ozone is not emitted directly to the atmosphe re, but is formed by photochemical reactions

between volatile organic compounds ( VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO X 

# ) in the presence of

sunlight. The long, hot, humid days of summer are particularly conducive to ozone formation, so

ozone levels are of concern primarily during the months of May thr ough September. The

primary sources of man-made VOCs and NO X 

# , the ozone precursors, are the evaporation of fuels

and solvents (gasoline and cons umer products), combustion of fuels (motor vehicles, power

plants and non-road engines) , and industrial processes.



# 1.1. 8-Hour Ozone National Am bient Air Quality Standards

In July 1997, the EPA established identical pr imary and secondary 8-hour ozone NAAQS at a

concentration of 0.08 parts per million (ppm), base d on the 3-year average of the annual fourthhighest daily maximum 8-hour aver age ozone concentrations measured in the ambient air at each

# - 2 - monitored location. Implementatio n of the standards was delayed due to litigation. In April

2004, EPA designated the Allentown-Bethlehem-Ea ston (ABE) Area, which consists of Carbon,

Lehigh and Northampton counties, as nonattainm ent for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard, based

on ambient air quality monitoring data coll ected from 2001-2003 (69 FR 23858; April 30, 2004).

The ABE Area was one of seventeen areas in Pennsylvania designated as an 8-hour ozone

nonattainment area for the 1997 ozone NAAQS.

On March 12, 2008, the EPA revised the NAAQ S for ozone to 0.075 ppm, averaged over

8 hours, to provide even great er protection for children, ot her at-risk populations and the

environment against the array of ozone-induc ed adverse health a nd welfare effects

(73 FR 16436; March 27, 2008). On May 21, 2012, the EPA published a final rule for the 2008

8-hour ozone NAAQS, implementing the nonattain ment area classification approach and

attainment deadlines, and re voking the 1997 ozone NAAQS for the purpose of transportation

conformity (77 FR 30160). The EPA proposed an additional implementation rule for the 2008

ozone NAAQS on June 6, 2013, to address Stat e Implementation Plan (SIP) and related

requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS (78 FR 34178). The ozone standard is currently

undergoing its statutory five- year review and it is anticipated th at EPA will promulgate a heathbased ozone standard between 0.060 and 0.070 ppm in 2014. Pennsylvania could have

additional areas that do not meet this anticipated revised ozone standard.

The promulgation of a new ozone standard does not affect the need for this revision to the

approved maintenance plan for the ABE Area (ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan) under the 1997

ozone NAAQS.



# 1.2. ABE Area and Ozone SIP Revisions

On June 26, 2007, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (Department)

submitted a SIP revision (ABE Redesignation Reque st) to the EPA requesting redesignation of

the ABE Area to attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS. The Department concurrently

submitted a SIP revision (ABE Ozone Mainte nance Plan) to the EPA that included a

maintenance plan based on the attainment and c ontinued long-term attain ment of the 1997 ozone

NAAQS for the ABE Area. The maintenance plan included the 2002 baseline inventory and

motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEB(s)) to be us ed for purposes of tran sportation conformity.

The Department submitted supplemental inve ntory material to the EPA on August 9, 2007.

The EPA’s transportation conformity regula tion, found at 40 CFR Part 93, Subpart A and

incorporated by reference in 25 Pa. Code Chapter 127, Subchapter J (relating to general

conformity), requires that the transportation plan, transportatio n improvement program (TIP),

and projects not from a conforming transportatio n plan and TIP must be consistent with the

MVEBs in the applicable air quality SIP. This criterion is satisfied if the state can demonstrate

that emissions of the pollutants or pollutant pr ecursors for which the area is in nonattainment or

maintenance, and for which the applicable SIP contains MVEBs approved or deemed adequate

by the EPA, are less than or equal to the MVEB s established in the applicable SIP or SIP

submission.

# - 3 - The metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) for the area, the Northeastern Pennsylvania

Alliance (NEPA) MPO (Carbon County) and the Lehigh Valley MPO (Lehigh and Northampton

Counties), ensure that emissions resulting from th eir respective TIPs are less than the MVEBs in

the SIP by completing periodic conformity determin ations, which are subject to public comment.

MPOs 1 

# are established by federal regulation. In the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan and ABE

Ozone Redesignation Request, the NEPA MPO was identified as a rural planning organization

(RPO). Due to increases in population, the NE PA RPO was designated as an MPO, effective

March 27, 2013. For the purposes of transportati on conformity, the Department considers RPOs

to perform the same function as MPOs for areas that do not meet the population requirements for

establishing a MPO. The transportation conf ormity regulations (40 CFR § 93.124(d)) allow a

SIP to establish motor vehicle budgets for each MPO or RPO, if a nonattainment area includes

more than one MPO or RPO. Separate MVEBs were proposed for the MPO and RPO in the

ABE Area in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan (N EPA was an RPO in Maintenance Plan). The

EPA approved all of the components of the ABE Redesignation Request and the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan, including the MVEBs, on Ma rch 4, 2008, (73 FR 11557) and redesignated the

ABE Area to attainment for the 2008 8-hour ozone standard.

The approved MVEBs included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan were estimated using the

EPA-approved highway emissions model in effect at that time, the Highway Mobile Source

Emission Factor Model version 6.2 (MOBILE6.2). The MVEBs in the ABE Ozone Maintenance

Plan included emission budgets for both NO X 

# and VOC. On March 2, 2010, the EPA released a

new mobile source emissions model called the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator 2010

(MOVES2010). Any new transportation conformity analysis started af ter March 2, 2013, must

use the most up-to-date version of MOVES.

EPA issued the MOVES2010b version of the mode l and its associated guidance in April 2012.

EPA considers both MOVES2010a and MOVES 2010b to be minor revisions to MOVES2010

that do not significantly affect th e results of modeling criteria pollutant estimates for highway

vehicles. References to “MOVES” in the remai nder of this document relate to all of the

approved versions of the model. The highway vehicle emissions modeling for this SIP revision

was already developed significan tly using MOVES 2010a. By the time that version 2010b was

issued, using MOVES2010b woul d have been impractical.

Compared to MOBILE6.2, the MOVE S model estimates higher NO X 

# emissions and, in some

ozone maintenance areas, higher VOC emissi ons being produced by highway vehicles,

depending on the model’s inputs. Emissions of NO X 

# estimated using MOVES will always be

greater for transportation planning than the NO X 

# emissions accounted for in the MVEBs, which

were estimated using MOBILE6.2. As a result, comparing emissions from the MOVES model to

the MVEB included in the approved maintenanc e plan would not allow local and regional

transportation planning agencies to meet the re quirements of transportation conformity; the

emissions budget in the maintenance plan would be exceeded and transportation planning could

be adversely affected. Therefore, the Depa rtment is updating the MVEBs for the ABE Area

using the newer EPA-approved emissions model, MOVES2010a.

1 

# 23 CFR §450.300

‐ 450.336

# - 4 - It is important to mention that higher em ission estimates calculated by MOVES2010a do not

mean that emissions from vehicles dramatical ly increased. The MOVES model better estimates

emissions that are already being produced by vehicles. Consequen tly, the ability of the area to

maintain the standard will not be affected by using estimates produced by the new model.



# 1.3. EPA Requirements for Developi ng and Revising Maintenance Plans

The EPA-approved ABE Redesignation Request is consistent with the September 4, 1992, EPA

memorandum written by John Calcagni, Director, Air Quality Management Division, entitled,

Procedures for Processing Requests to Redesignate Areas to Attainment . For the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan, the Department pr oduced an emissions inventory for NO X 

# , VOC, and carbon

monoxide (CO) for 2004, the attainment year, wh ich included ambient air quality monitoring

data that showed emissions that met the 1997 ozone NAAQS in the ABE Area. The inventory

was based on a “typical summer day,” as required by the EPA. The Department developed an

emissions inventory for 2018 that demonstrat ed that the area would meet the 1997 ozone

NAAQS for a 10-year period followi ng redesignation of the area to attainment. The emissions

inventory for 2018, a maintenance year, showed that emissions of NO X 

# , VOC, and CO in the

ABE Area would not exceed emissions that occurred in 2004. The maintenance year is a year at

least 10 years in the future that a state chooses to demonstrate that emissions over a 10-year

period of analysis will not lead to an exceedance of the standard. A st ate does this by showing

that emissions in the maintenance year are le ss than emissions in the attainment year.

An emissions inventory in the ABE Ozone Mainte nance Plan showed that emissions in 2009, the

interim year, did not exceed emissions in 2004, the attainment year. The 2009 and 2018

inventories both considered future growth pr ojected from a 2002 baseli ne year, and included

emission reductions from permanent and enforceable control measures.

This SIP revision updates highway emissions esti mates using the newer MOVES2010a model.

The Department need not update emissions esti mates for nonroad sources for several reasons.

For one, the growth assumptions for emissi ons from nonroad sources in the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan for the year 2009 were greate r than the documented growth that actually

occurred from 2002 to 2009. Additionally, newer, updated emission growth projections to 2018

for nonroad sources are less than emission growth projections for these sources in the ABE

Ozone Maintenance Plan. A few indicators of gr owth used to project the area source emissions

inventory in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan were less than actual area source growth factors

used in this SIP revision. Th is SIP revision also includes linea rly interpolated 2018 point source

emission estimates derived from the Mid-Atla ntic Regional Air Management Association

(MARAMA) 2011 effort for modeling ambient partic ulate matter concentrations, which are used

to revise the 2018 projected emissions in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan.

Ambient air quality monitoring re sults for the ABE Area demonstr ate continued attainment of

the 1997 ozone NAAQS (0.08 ppm, with rounding 84 pa rts per billion), as shown in Table 1.

Monitoring results for 2012 indicate an average design value of 75 ppb.

# - 5 - Table 1: ABE Area 2012 Design Values

Monitor 2010

4 th



# Highest 2011

4 th



# Highest 2012

4 th



# Highest 3-Year

Average or

Design

Value*

Allentown 42-077-0004 80 ppb 79 ppb 75 ppb 78 ppb

Freemansburg 42-095-0025 82 ppb 76 ppb 73 ppb 77 ppb

Easton 42-095-8000 69 ppb 72 ppb 73 ppb 71 ppb

* 

# A “design value” is the annual fourth highest daily maximu m 8-hour ozone concentration, averaged over three years.



# The EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality developed guidance titled, Policy Guidance

on the Use of MOVES2010 and Subsequent Minor Revisions for State Implementation Plan

Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes , (MOVES2010 guidance)

EPA 420-B-12-010, April 2012. This guidance describe s requirements for SIP revisions. For

maintenance demonstrations, areas can have a revised motor vehicle emissions inventory and

budget using MOVES without revising emissions for ot her sectors included in the applicable SIP

or completing additional modeling if:

 The SIP continues to meet applicable requi rements when the previous motor vehicle

emissions inventories are replaced with inventories generated by MOVES2010a; and

 The state can document that growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor

vehicle sources continue to be valid a nd minor updates do not change the overall

conclusions of the SIP.

The EPA further states that if both of the crite ria are met, the state can simply re-submit the

original maintenance plan with the revised moto r vehicle emissions inventories, using the most

current version of the MOVES model. However, if either criterion is not met, the emissions

categories in the maintenance plan that have changed must be brought up to date.

Since one of the criteria listed above is not met for point sour ce emissions, this SIP revision

includes information addressing the recommen dations described in the MOVES2010 policy

guidance, listed here:

 Demonstration that the 1997 ozone NAAQS a pproved maintenance plan continues to

meet applicable requirements with the revi sed motor vehicle emissions inventories, as

calculated by the most recently approved MOVES model, and recalculation of the

attainment year, interim year and maintena nce year MVEBs with the latest planning

assumptions, including documentation of the updated assumptions;

 Review of the point, area, and nonroad emissi ons inventories for the interim year and

maintenance year to determine if growth a nd control strategy assumptions have changed

and, if so, development of an analysis to determine if these changes affect the conclusion

# - 6 - of the maintenance plan that air quality will remain compliant with the 1997 ozone

NAAQS; and

 Assessment to confirm that excess emissions exist and the quantification of these excess

emissions for use in the safety margin applied to the MVEBs.



# 1.4. Maintenance Plan Demonstration and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

Tables 2a and 2b show the revised 2004, 2009 and 2018 NO X 

# MVEBs calculated using the latest

planning assumptions for the ABE Area using MOVES2010a. In Tables 2a and 2b, only NO X 

# emission budgets are revised in this SIP revi sion. The existing MOBILE6.2-based VOC MVEBs

are sufficient for future conformity determina tions and are included here for reference only.

Assumptions used in the MOVES2010a modeling, including model inputs, growth assumptions

and modeling methodology, are provided in Appendi x C. Highway vehicle emissions generated

by MOVES2010a show a clear, downward tr end in emissions in future years.

Table 2a: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budg ets Calculated with MOVES2010a for NO X 

# and

with MOBILE6.2 for VOC for Lehigh Valley MPO (Lehigh and Northampton Counties)

Year NO X 

# Emissions

(tons/day)

(MOVES2010a) 

# VOC Emissions

(tons/day)

(MOBILE6.2)



# 2004 Attainment Year 49.83 26.31

2009 Modeled Emissions 37.48 19.59

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 2 

# 1.70 1.06

2009 Interim Year Budget 39.18 20.65

2018 Modeled Emissions 18.71 11.33

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 1.70 1.11

2018 Maintenance Year Budgets 20.41 12.44

2 

# A “safety margin” is the amount of emissions by which the total projected emissions from all sources of a given

pollutant are less than the total emissions that would satisfy the applicable requirement for reasonable further

progress, attainment, or maintenance (40 CFR 

# § 93.101). The state may designate a portion of these emissions for

use by the MPO or Department of Transportation (DOT) as a safety margin to be used for transportation projects.

See 40 CFR 

# § 93.124(a) for application of a safety margin. The De partment also applies safety margins for planning

areas with RPOs.

# - 7 - Table 2b: Motor Vehicle Emissions B udgets Calculated with MOVES2010a

for NO X 

# and MOBILE 6.2 for VOC for NEPA MPO (Carbon County)

Year NO X 

# Emissions

(tons/day)

(MOVES2010a) 

# VOC

Emissions

(tons/day)

(MOBILE6.2)



# 2004 Attainment Year 9.55 4.23

2009 Modeled Emissions 6.60 3.21

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins

(see Footnote 2 on pg 6) 

# 0.30 0.23

2009 Interim Year Budget 6.90 3.44

2018 Modeled Emissions 3.24 1.95

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 0.30 0.31

2018 Maintenance Year Budgets 3.54 2.26



# 1.5. Non-Mobile Inventory Review

The EPA, in its MOVES2010 guidance, states that revisions to existing SIPs and budgets must

continue to meet applicable requirements under the Clean Air Act. A maintenance plan revised

to take into account new emission estimates due to an update in the highway model must

demonstrate that attainment of the standard co ntinues, even with updated control measures and

growth estimates. This SIP revision incl udes increases in the maintenance plan’s NO X 

# emission

estimates for the attainment, interim and mainte nance years, resulting from revising highway

emissions using MOVES instead of the MOBI LE6.2 model, and accounting for emissions of

point sources using the latest pl anning assumptions and growth estimates. In this SIP revision,

area and nonroad source inventor ies are not being revised. Total emissions in the years 2009 and

2018 cannot exceed the emissions in the 2004 atta inment year inventory. The Department

concludes that the ABE Area w ill continue to demonstrate at tainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS

because total emissions of NO X 

# in the interim year and mainte nance year will be less than the

2004 attainment year inventory for NO X 

# . Developing a revised highw ay inventory for CO is

unnecessary for this SIP revision because CO em issions decrease using MOVES in place of the

MOBILE6.2 model. VOC emissi ons are not being updated because VOC emission estimates for

the ABE Area do not increase to the point at wh ich the existing motor ve hicle emission budget is

exceeded when using the MOVES mode l for transportation conformity.

Growth and control strategy assumptions have ch anged for all of the emission categories since

the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was approved. The changes in these assumptions have

generally decreased forecasted emi ssions in future years. A severe economic recession occurred

since the maintenance plan was approved and employment was greatly depressed, falling short of

# - 8 - the employment projections in the maintenance plan for the year 2009. More controls of source

categories have been implemented at both th e federal and state level. The nonroad NO X 

# emission inventory and the area source NO X 

# inventory are not being revised for the interim and

maintenance year in this SIP revision. The poi nt source emission invent ory is being updated.

The Department compared updated growth estim ates with growth assumptions and growth

estimates in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. That analysis is included below. More detailed

information can be found in Volume II: Technical Support Document.

Some SIP revisions for certain areas in the Co mmonwealth will require the Department to update

growth and strategy assumptions of point, area, and non-road sources . A number of areas in the

Commonwealth are home to newly built point sources, such as electric generating units (EGUs).

Some areas have experienced Marcellus Shale ga s development, which has increased area source

emissions.

The EPA promulgated the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) in 2005 to control NO X 

# and sulfur

dioxide (SO 2 

# ) emissions from EGUs (70 FR 25162; Ma y 12, 2005 and later amendments). The

U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit re manded CAIR in December 2008, without vacating

it, in North Carolina v. EPA , 531 F.3d 896, modified , 550 F.9d 1176 (D.C. Cir. 2008). EPA

developed the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) in 2011 to limit the transport of NO X 

# and

SO 2 

# , which could have changed projected em issions of point s ources (76 FR 48208;

Aug. 8, 2011 and later revisions). The court vacated CSAPR on August 21, 2012, however, and

ordered EPA to continue administering CAIR pe nding the promulgation of a valid replacement.

See EME Homer City Generation L.P. v. EP A, 696 F3.d 7 (D.C. Cir. 2012), rehearing denied

, 2013 U.S. App. LEXIS 1623 and 1624 (D.C. Cir. Jan. 24, 2013). On June 24, 2013, the

Supreme Court of the United States accepted review of the case. Following the Circuit Court’s

direction, CAIR remains in place pending the Supreme Court’s review. On November 19, 2012,

EPA’s then-Assistant Administrator Gina McCart hy issued a memorandum stating that it is

appropriate for EPA to rely on CAIR reducti ons as permanent and enforceable until court

proceedings are resolved or, if the vacatur of CSAPR remains in place, until EPA promulgates a

replacement rule and state plans for implementati on of the replacement rule are approved. Some

owners and operators of EGUs have responded to new economic and regulatory developments

by closing coal-fired electric ge neration units or by switching fu els (to natural gas) at their

facilities, which includes facilities in the ABE Area.

Table 3 shows that emissions in the future, inte rim and maintenance years will not exceed overall

emissions from all sources in 2004, the attainme nt year, even though highway emissions for NO X 

# are greater in the ABE Area when modeled by M OVES than when the emissions were estimated

by MOBILE6.2 in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Pl an. Actual emissions for the 2009 point

sources, updated 2018 projected point source emissi ons, actual area source growth rates for 2002

to 2009, and updated area source growth factor s for 2009 to 2018 are in cluded in this SIP

revision and Technical Support Document (Volum e II). Projected nonroad category emissions

from the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan are us ed for 2009 and 2018 in this SIP revision.

Projected nonroad sources do not need to be upd ated because emissions from these categories

have not increased since the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was submitted to the EPA.

Attainment of the 1997 ozone standard is main tained by showing that revised actual and

projected growth for 2009 and 2018 does not increase overall future emissions included in the

# - 9 - ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. This SIP revision demonstrates that growth assumptions in the

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan generally forecast gr eater growth than what actually occurred or

will occur in the major source category segments.

Table 3: Revised ABE NO X 

# Emissions from 2004 to 2018

NO X 

# in tons/day

Year Point Area Nonroad Mobile Total

2004 58.8 2.9 12.9 59.4 134.0

2009 27.0 3.1 11.0 44.1 85.2

Δ (2004-2009) -31.8 0.2 -1.90 -15.3 -48.8

2018 26.1 3.2 6.6 22.0 59.9

Δ (2004-2018) -32.7 0.3 -6.30 -37.4 -74.1



# 2. Source Category Emissions

2.1. Point Source Category Emission s

2.1.1. C ONTROL 

# M EASURES



# At the time of the development of the ABE Oz one Maintenance Plan, many large sources were

affected by the requirements of the federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). Pennsylvania

implemented NO X 

# control programs, including implementation of CAIR, which control NO X 

# from large industrial boilers, in ternal combustion engines, elec tric generating units, and cement

kilns. Another control measure took effect for NO X 

# emissions for point sources after the ABE

Ozone Maintenance Plan was approved. New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) affected

new engines installed at facili ties after January 1, 2011, by requiri ng internal combustion engines

to meet a 50 percent reduction in NO X 

# . These changes to NSPS requirements will reduce point

source NO X 

# emissions in 2018.

# - 10 - 2.1.2. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES IN THE 

# O RIGINAL 

# ABE O ZONE 

# M AINTENANCE 

# P LAN



# Annual point source inventories us ing historical emissions data reported to the Department by

point source facilities were included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. The Department

developed an emissions inventory of point sources for calendar years 2002 and 2004. The 2002

point source emissions inventory represents a time when the ABE Area did not meet the 1997

8-hour ozone NAAQS. The 2004 point source invent ory showed emissions that occurred during

2004, the attainment year for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS.

Emission projections for the point source sector for 11 states, including Pennsylvania, and the

District of Columbia, were prepared for MARAMA by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc.

(MACTEC). Future year projec tions were developed by MACTEC so that states could use the

point source inventories in their SIPs. Emi ssion projections were pr epared for years 2009 and

2018.

For the purpose of projecting emissions into th e future, the point source inventory in the ABE

Ozone Maintenance Plan is divided into tw o subsectors – the EGU sector and the non-EGU

sector. Different projection met hods were used for those two sectors. For the EGU sector, the

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibi lity Union (MANE-VU) used th e Integrating Planning Model

(IPM) to project future electric ge neration, as well as to calculate the impact of control programs

on future emission levels. The EGU modeling da ta was made available by MANE-VU to its

member states, including Pennsylvania. The ABE Area has six CAIR-affected (EGU) emission

sources. For the non-EGU sector, growth factor s were developed by using the EPA’s Economic

Growth Analysis System Version 5.0 (EGAS 5.0). The U.S. Department of Energy fuel

consumption forecasts were used to replace de fault values in EGAS 5.0. Additionally, statesupplied population, employment, and other emissi on projection data were used to update and

enhance the EGAS 5.0 default values.

GenOn Energy announced in February 2012 that it intends to decommission and shut down the

Portland Generating Station, located in Northa mpton County, effective January 2015. Because

the status of this facility coul d potentially change, the emissions from the facility are included in

the actual 2009 and projected 2018 emission inventor ies for point sources. If the facility shuts

down as planned, it will be removed from future inventories submitted to EPA that are created

after the shutdown date.

2.1.3. P OINT 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# This SIP revision revi ses the projected NO X 

# emissions for 2009 in the ABE Ozone Maintenance

Plan with actual emissions for point sources in 2009, because the actual emissions are readily

available and allow easy comparison between the projected emissions in the maintenance plan

and the actual emissions. The Department a ssessed point source emissions by comparing the

actual emissions inventory data submitted to the Department by owners of point sources for 2009

to the estimated 2009 NO X 

# emissions from point sources in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan.

The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan overestimate d point source emissions for 2009. Table 4

shows that the projected poi nt source emissions of NO X 

# in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan

# - 11 - were 31.3 tons per day more than actual 2009 po int source emissions. Actual emissions of NO X 

# declined significantly from 2004 to 2009, even when compared to the slow growth in emissions

forecasted in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan.

Table 4: 2009 Point Source Emissions

Maintenance Plan Estimates versus Actual

2009 Emissions NO X 

# (tons/day)

Maintenance Plan Estimate 58.3

Actual 27.0

In this SIP revision, the Department is revi sing the 2018 point source inventory in the ABE

Ozone Maintenance Plan by using emissions from the inventory developed by MARAMA.

Because the updated inventory produced by MARAMA uses different years for the baseline and

projected inventories, and different surrogates to estimate growth than were used in the ABE

Ozone Maintenance Plan, comparison between growth factors used to produce the two

inventories is difficult. The MARAMA projected inventory estim ated emissions for the years

2017 and 2020 from a baseline 2007 emissions inventor y. In order to obtain emission estimates

for the 2018 maintenance year for this SIP revi sion, a straight line interpolation between 2007

and 2020 was used. Projected point source NO X 

# emissions in 2018 using the MARAMA

estimates are still well below the 2018 projec ted point source emissions in the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan, as shown in Table 5, and thus show that projected poi nt source emissions in

2018 will fall below the 2004 (attainment year) emission levels.

Table 5: 2018 Point Source Emissions

Maintenance Plan Estimates versus Revised 2018 Emissions

2018 Emissions NO X 

# (tons/day)

2018 Maintenance Plan Estimate 66.6

2018 Revised Estimate (MARAMA

Inventory) 26.1

# - 12 - 

# 2.2. A REA 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# E MISSIONS



# 2.2.1. C ONTROL 

# M EASURES



# The area sector includes, but is not limited t o, such diverse emissions source categories as:

surface coating; commercial and consumer solvent use; residential heating; open burning; traffic

line painting; and landfill gases. Emissions ar e produced from a wide number of sources for

which actual emissions or direct indicators of emissions are not available. One control measure

took effect for NO X 

# emissions for area sources after the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was

approved. New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) affected new en gines installed at

facilities after January 1, 2011, by re quiring a 50 percent reduction in NO X 

# emissions. These

changes to NSPS requirements will have some beneficial effect on area sources by 2018.

2.2.2. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES IN THE 

# 2006 M AINTENANCE 

# P LAN



# Area source emission growth factors in the AB E Ozone Maintenance Plan were developed by

using the default configuration in EGAS 5.0. EGAS 5.0 used the U.S. Department of Energy

Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) fuel use pr ojections. In this SIP revision, the

AEO2005 fuel consumption forecasts were used to replace AEO2004 forecasts. State-supplied

population and employment data were used to repl ace default data, when the state-specific data

was available. Growth estimates were repres ented by growth factors for each area source

classification code (SCC) for each county.

County-level population data for 2000, and projec tions for 2010 and 2020 from the Pennsylvania

State Data Center, http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/, were pr ovided to derive growth factors for this SIP

revision. This data were inter polated to obtain growth factors for projecting emissions from

2002 to 2009 for SCCs that are population based. General employment data for 21 counties or

areas for 2000, and projections to 2010 and 2020, were used. This data were also interpolated to

estimate growth factors for projecting fr om 2002 to 2009 and 2018 for nine area source

categories. For all other area source categorie s, AEO2005 forecasts were used for projecting

emissions from area source fuel combustion, when available. If AEO 2005 forecasts are not

available, EGAS 5.0 default factors were used.

The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan relied upon many different types of socioeconomic indicators

that served as surrogates to actual sales data to estimate emissions from the area source sector

when actual sales data was not av ailable. Population, employment, fuel use and housing data are

some of the surrogates used to estimate em issions. Methodologies for estimating some

emissions from some area sources were updated by the EPA in the time since EPA approved the

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, but, because the em issions change similarly for the attainment,

interim and maintenance years, the changes will not result in a significant difference between the

attainment year’s emissions and the maintenance year’s emissions. As can be seen from Tables

6 and 7, with the exception of natural gas commer cial boilers and reside ntial natural gas use,

emissions would decrease from area sources, si nce actual growth rates from 2002 to 2009 and

projected growth rates from 2009 to 2018 are lower or nearly the same when compared to the

# - 13 - growth rates used in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Additionally, in Table 7 the growth rate

for the Commercial Anthracite Coal category is list ed as zero. This reflec ts an error in the ABE

Ozone Maintenance Plan where this category wa s counted in both the area and point source

inventories. When actual emissions for 2009 we re reviewed, the area source value became zero

after subtracting out point sources using EPA’s invent ory development methodology. The

metrics presented in Tables 6 and 7 serve as growth surrogates for most source classification

codes (SCCs) in the area sour ce category in the maintenance plan, which account for a large

majority of the emissions in the area source inventory.

Table 6: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in

Maintenance Plan and Inventory Updates from 2002 to 2009

Metric Maintenance

Plan

Surrogate

Estimates

(2006) Actual

Growth

(Census

Data)

2009 Population * 1.0490 1.0878

2009 Total Employment 1.0256 1.0102

2009 Commercial Boilers Natural Gas 1.0106 1.0890

2009 Commercial Boilers, Distillate 1.0731 0.9968

2009 Commercial Boilers, Coal 1.0481 0.6636

*Growth for the year 2009 is computed from 2002 to 2009.

# - 14 - Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and

Inventory Updates from 2009 to 2018

Metric Maintenance

Plan Growth

(2009-2018)* Revised

Growth

from

MARAMA

Inventory

(2009-2018)*

Population 1.0595 1.0373

Employees 1.0335 1.0319

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9983 0.9136

Anthracite, Commercial 0.9865 0.0000

All Combustor Types, Distillate Oil,

Residential 0.9598 0.8226

Boilers and Internal Combustion

Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 1.0521 1.0687

All Combustor Types, Natural Gas,

Residential 1.0181 1.0188

*Growth for the year 2018 is given as a factor estimating growth from 2009 to 2018.

Due to different time ranges used for growth estimates in the maintenance plan and more

recent inventory data, growth based on 2002 was impossible to estimate. This method

allows for a direct comparison.



# 2.2.3. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES IN 

# MARAMA 2011 R EGIONAL 

# M ODELING 

# E FFORT



# The development of growth factors for the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort for area

sources used one or a combination of the following as surrogates for growth: AEO2010,

population data, or employment da ta. A direct comparison cannot be made between the growth

factors based on AEO2005 or popula tion in the original maintenance plan and this SIP revision

which uses growth factors from MARAMA’s 2011 regional modeling effort. As years pass,

different inventory methodologies are developed. This SIP revision uses the best possible

method to compare emission growth factors developed using differing methodologies (See

Volume II: Technical Support Document). The MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort

developed growth factors for most SCCs using AEO2010 or county level population.

Employment data was derived from North Ameri can Industry Classification System to the state

level. Since employment data to the count y level was not available from the MARAMA 2011

modeling, state employment data was applied to a ll SCCs that use employment data and counties

in this SIP revision. The recession reduced empl oyment, which fell short of the projections in

the maintenance plan for the year 2009. Starting from depressed employment levels in 2009, it is

unlikely that employment projections in the main tenance plan will be exceeded in 2018, even if

employment growth recovers to no rmal levels in the near future.

# - 15 - 2.2.4. M ARCELLUS 

# S HALE 

# E MISSIONS



# Significant infrastructure development to extract Marcellus Shale natural gas in some

Pennsylvania counties has occurred since the Department submitted the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan to EPA. Area source emissi ons result from the placement of drilling

equipment, gathering lines and compressor statio ns. The eastern edge of the Marcellus Shale

geologic formation lies under a portion of the ABE Area (Carbon County). The ABE Area has

not experienced any Marcellus Sh ale development as of the subm ission of this SIP revision, but

it is unknown if the ABE ar ea will experience th is development in the future.

2.2.5. A REA 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# Updated emission growth factors for fuel use, which produces NO X 

# emissions, demonstrate that

area source emission growth for 2002-2009 and 2009- 2018 was less than predicted by the area

source growth factors in the ABE Ozone Mainte nance Plan. Therefore, area source emissions

were not revised in this SIP revi sion because area source emissions are expected to be lower than

predicted in the ABE Ozone Main tenance Plan. Estimates of NO X 

# emissions from area sources

in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan were slig htly higher in both 2009 and 2018 (see Table 3)

than the 2004 attainment year, but estimates of NO X 

# emissions from all categories in the ABE

Area are still well below the emissions in the attainment year.



# 2.3. Nonroad Source Category Emissions

2.3.1. C ONTROL 

# M EASURES



# The nonroad category contains many different ty pes of equipment. The Department used

NONROAD2005 for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Pl an. All versions of the EPA’s NONROAD

Model estimate emissions for over 200 types of engines and vehicles. Nonroad engines and

vehicles can be used for such applications as construction, lawn and garden care, farming, and

industrial applications. In addi tion, emissions from three types of activities – incl uding aircraft,

locomotive, and commercial marine vessel activities – are not estimated in the NONROAD

Model but are in the nonroad category. In the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the

NONROAD2005 model was used to estimate emissions of nonroad vehicles and engines. The

model went through one major revision since it wa s used for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan.

NONROAD2008a is the latest vers ion of this model. This new version of the model

incorporates two reduction strate gies that affect engines and vehicles in the nonroad sector:

 Diesel recreational marine standards in th e 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine

engines (See Control of Emissions of Air Po llution From Locomotive Engines and

Marine Compression-Ignition Engine s Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder, 73 FR 25098;

May 6, 2008); and

# - 16 -  The October 2008 small spark ignition and sp ark ignition and recreational marine rule

(See Control of Emissions From Nonroad Spark-Ignition Engines and Equipment

, 73 FR 59034; October 8, 2008).

For the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the Depart ment modified files in the NONROAD Model,

when state specific data was avai lable, that affect emission cate gories such as residential lawn

and garden and recreational marine vessels.

2.3.2. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES



# Emissions from nonroad sources have decrea sed since the submittal of the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan as a result of additional cont rols mentioned above in Section 2.3.1, and other

controls that have been phased in since 2004 for engines used in the nonroad sector. The fleet

turnover that occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by

newer equipment and vehicles that meet more stringent emission standards has continued to

lower emissions in the nonroad sector since the la te 1990s, and will continue to do so for the next

10 years. Because of these controls, emission reductions occurred across all segments of the

nonroad category, including constr uction equipment, farming equipment, locomotives, and lawn

and garden equipment. Furthermore, the reces sion significantly lowere d construction, railroad,

aircraft, and industrial ac tivity, and, consequently, lowered emissi ons. Even if growth returns to

pre-recession levels, overall growth will likely remain lower than predicted in the maintenance

plan up to the 2018 maintenance year.

2.3.3. N ONROAD 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# The Department demonstrated that it is reasona ble to assume that emissions growth for nonroad

sources that has occurred, and is occurring, is le ss than the growth forecasted in the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan for NO X 

# for both maintenance years: 2009 and 2018. The Department

compared growth estimates between thos e used in NONROAD2005 and NONROAD2008a, and

took into account fleet turnover and the e ffects of the recession. Emissions of NO X 

# from the

nonroad source sector have not increased as a result of any new activity or update in

methodology. Therefore, no revisions to the nonroad source sector for NO X 

# emissions are

necessary.



# 2.4. Highway Source Category Emission s

2.4.1. C ONTROL 

# M EASURES



# Assumptions for vehicle emission standards have not been changed significantly in the modeled

analysis from when the Department submitted the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan to EPA.

Pennsylvania began implementation of California emission standards, which are incorporated by

# - 17 - reference in Pennsylvania regulations, in 2005 fo r diesel-powered heavy-duty trucks, and in 2008

for passenger cars and light-duty trucks.

In January 2012, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved si gnificant revisions to

its regulations for criteria pollu tant and greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars, light-duty

trucks and medium-duty vehicles. The amendm ents, referred to as LEV III, were approved by

California’s Office of Admini strative Law (OAL) on August 7, 2012, and will become effective

in model year (MY) 2015 for criteria polluta nts and in MY 2017 for greenhouse gases. The

requirements were automatically incorporated by reference as part of the Pennsylvania Clean

Vehicles Program, to the extent the amendmen ts apply to Pennsylvania’s program, under

25 Pa. Code § 126.411.

On August 28, 2012, the EPA and the U.S. Depart ment of Transportatio n’s National Highway

Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a joint Final Rulemaking to extend the National

Program of harmonized greenhouse gas a nd fuel economy standards to MYs 2017-2025

passenger vehicles. On May 21, 2013, the EPA proposed emission standards for

MYs 2017-2025 light duty, medium du ty, and some heavy duty vehi cles, referred to as Tier 3

emission standards, as well as sulfur content standards for fuel in a proposed rulemaking

(78 FR 29816).

The mobile source modeling for this SIP revision was completed prior to the publication of the

proposed Tier 3 standards, and, as a result, the impact of the proposed standards was not

included in the modeling. The California LEV III rulemaking, the EPA-NHTSA National

Program Final Rulemaking, and the EPA Tier III Proposed Rulemaking have not been analyzed

as to their effect on future year emission estimates of NO X 

# in this SIP revision. However, it is

reasonable to assume that NO X 

# emissions will decrease as thes e vehicles replace older vehicles

during fleet turnover in Pennsylvani a and the rest of the country.

2.4.2. G ROWTH 

# E STIMATES



# Overall emissions from highway ve hicles will continue to decrease as new vehicles take the

place of older vehicles during normal fleet turnov er. Fleet turnover is the greatest driver in

lowering emissions from highway vehicles. Fleet turnover has been slower than forecast in the

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. This is, in part, a result of the recent recession and its lingering

effects. Other factors have some impact on emi ssions from the highway source category, such as

changes in fleet age, vehicle miles traveled, a nd the fleet mix of vehicl es. The fleet age is

increasing as people operate their vehicles for a l onger period of time. This will reduce the rate

of fleet turnover and the reductions expected in emissions. It is difficult to compare vehicle

miles traveled (VMT) in Pennsylvania between the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan and this SIP

revision, because the method for estimating VMT has changed. Nationally, there was a slight

decline in VMT during the recession. The percentage of vehicles in Pennsylvania that are lightduty trucks is also shrinking. Consumers ar e purchasing more passenger cars than light-duty

trucks. Passenger cars tend to have lower emissions.

# - 18 - NO X 

# emission estimates in this SIP revision were developed using MOVES2010a and the latest

planning assumptions. Emissions have been es timated for 2004 (attainment year), 2009 and

2018 (maintenance years). The MOBILE6.2 emissi on estimates in the ABE Ozone Maintenance

Plan have been included in Table 8 to illustrate relative changes in emissions.

Table 8: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions

(tons/summer day) Revised MOVES2010a Emissions

(tons/summer day)



# 2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

NO X 

# 48.33 33.89 14.44 59.38 44.08 21.95

VOC 30.54 22.80 13.28 N/A* N/A N/A

*VOC emissions are not be ing revised in this SIP revision b ecause the VOC MVEBs in the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan developed using MOBILE6.2 are suffic ient and will be used for transportation conformity.



# Table 8 shows that the MOVES model estimates NO X 

# emissions in 2009 and 2018 exceed the

MOBILE6.2-derived emissions estimates in th e ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. This would

cause transportation planning emissions estimat es using MOVES to exceed the MVEBs. The

updated NO X 

# MVEBs and approved VOC MVEBs provided in Tables 2a and 2b will help ensure

that the MPOs in the ABE Area can demonstrat e transportation conformity using MOVES2010a,

while the emissions estimates still demonstrate th at the ABE Area demonstrates attainment with,

and continued maintenance of, the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS.

2.4.3. M OBILE 

# S OURCE 

# C ATEGORY 

# C ONCLUSION



# This SIP revision includes revised NO X 

# MVEBs for the ABE Area using updated highway

vehicle emissions estimates derived from MOVE S. Appendix C of this SIP revision replaces

Appendix C in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan in its entirety. Appendix C of this SIP revision

combines sections C3 and C4, and deletes section C5 of Appendix C in the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan. Appendix C of this SI P revision describes the highway modeling

methodology necessary to produce accurate emission estimate s from the MOVES model.



# 3. Safety Margins

A safety margin is the amount of emissions by which the total projected emissions from all

sources of a given pollutant are less than the to tal emissions that would satisfy the applicable

requirement for reasonable further progress, attainment, or maintenance (40 CFR §93.101).

Table 3 shows that the emissions in the maintenance years, even when using the conservative

emission estimates in the ABE Ozone Maintena nce Plan, for point, area and nonroad sectors,

provide a significant safety margin for c ontinued maintenance of the 1997 8-hour ozone

NAAQS.

Therefore, a portion of the safety margin is being allocated to the MVEBs for transportation

projects (see Tables 2a and 2b) to help ensure that any futu re planning assumption updates will

not negatively impact the area’s ability to demonstrate transp ortation conformity. Adequate

# - 19 - safety margins will also defer the need for future SIP revisions, where the purpose of the SIP

revision is only to update numbers and not to document any actual emi ssion reductions to the

atmosphere.

To help ensure that the transportation conform ity process is not needle ssly delayed, a 2.0 ton/day

safety margin for NO X 

# has been applied to the MVEB in 2009 and a 2.0 ton/day safety margin

for NO X 

# has been applied to the MVEB in 2018. The safety margins included in the VOC

MVEBs are the safety margins included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan using

MOBILE6.2. The ABE Area contai ns the Lehigh Valley MPO and the NEPA MPO. The safety

margins are distributed between the two MPOs based on the percentage of emissions that each

MPO contributes to the area tota l. All indications are that the 2009 and 2018 emission estimates

for point, area and nonroad sources in the ABE Oz one Maintenance Plan are higher than any

actual emissions for 2009 and revised estimates fo r 2018 in this SIP revision. Tables 2a and 2b

quantitatively show that these safety margins w ill continue to allow the area to remain well

below the 2004 attainment year emissions inventor y cap, thereby ensuring that future air quality

will continue to meet the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS.



# 4. Motor Vehicle Emission Budget for Transportation Conformity

The Department proposes to establish budgets for highway emissions in order to ensure that

transportation emissions do not impede clean air goals for the next decade and beyond. The

information in Tables 9a and 9b, once EPA approves this SIP revision for the purposes of

transportation conformity, will establish MVEBs for the ABE Area. The MVEBs are exhibited

separately for the two MPOs in the ABE Area.

Table 9a: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets – Lehigh Valley MPO

Calendar Year Pollutant

NO X 

# VOC

2009 35,542.68 kilograms/summer day

39.1787 tons/summer day 18,731.92 kilograms/summer day

20.6482 tons/summer day



# 2018 18,512.06 kilograms/summer day

20.4058 tons/summer day 11,278.96 kilograms/summer day

12.4328 tons/summer day

# - 20 - Table 9b: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets – NEPA MPO

Calendar Year Pollutant

NO X 

# VOC

2009 6,257.55 kilograms/summer day

6.8977 tons/summer day 3,118.21 kilograms/summer day

3.4372 tons/summer day



# 2018 3,212.37 kilograms/summer day

3.5410 tons/summer day 2,052.98 kilograms/summer day

2.2630 tons/summer day

*Conversion factor used for Table 9a and 9b: 1kg = 2.2046 lbs



# 5. Conclusion

By examining actual and projected emissions, increased controls for all emissions categories, and

evidence that actual emissions growth for poi nt source, area source, and nonroad source

categories has been less than the projected emi ssions growth for most sources in the approved

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the Department has shown the conclusion in the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan that the ABE Area will co ntinue to maintain the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS

to be valid, even after updati ng the highway emissions estimat es using the new EPA-approved

MOVES model. Updating NO X 

# emissions in the MVEB will not negatively affect the ABE

Area’s ability to maintain the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. In this SIP re vision, the Department

has updated emissions of NO X 

# that were included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan for point

and highway sources. Additionally, the Depart ment compared updated growth factors for NO X



# for area sources with those that were included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, to show that

growth was less than expected and that the area source inventory did not need to be revised.

Emissions of nonroad sources were not updated because growth in emissions for those sources

decreased or were unaffected.

# E. Christopher Abruzzo Tom Corbett

Secretary Governor 

# Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

FINAL

VOLUME II: Technical Support Document

State Implementation Plan Revision: NO X 

# Motor

Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the

MOVES2010a Model

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE)

1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

February 2014

Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468

717-787-9495

# [This page intentionally left blank.]

# i 

# Contents

Introduction 1

Point Source Category Emissions 1

Point Source Category 2009 Emissions 2

Point Source Category 2018 Emissions 4

Area Source Category Emissions 7

Area Source Category 2009 Emissions 7

Area Source Category 2018 Emissions 8

Nonroad Source Category Emissions 10

Highway Source Category Emissions 11



# Tables

Table 1: Point Source Emissions for 2009 – SIP Estimated Versus Actual 2

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NO X 

# Point Source Inventory for the ABE Ozone Maintenance

Area by Facility Source 2

Table 3: ABE Ozone Maintenance Pl an – Emission Estimates for 2018 4

Table 4: SIP Revision – Revised Emissi ons Estimates of Point Sources for 2018

(MARAMA 2007 Baseline and 2020 Projected Inventories) 5

Table 5: MARAMA 2007 Annual Ba seline and 2020 Projected NO X 

# Point Source Inventories

for the ABE Ozone Maintenan ce Area by Facility Source 5

Table 6: Revised Socioeconomic Data for th e ABE Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to

Projected Growth in the ABE Ar ea Maintenance Plan (2002-2009) 8

Table 7: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to the

Projected Growth in the ABE Ar ea Maintenance Plan (2009-2018) 9

Table 8: Revised Motor Vehicl e Emissions Using MOVES2010a 12

# ii [This page intentionally left blank.]

# - 1 - 

# Introduction

This Technical Support Document , prepared by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental

Protection (Department), provides detailed info rmation on the categories of point, area, nonroad,

and highway sources of oxides of nitrogen (NO X 

# ) emission estimates and assumptions. Certain

data shown in this document were used in the State Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance

Plan and Base Year Inventory – Allentown- Bethlehem-Easton ( ABE) Eight-Hour Ozone

Nonattainment Area , which is hereafter referred to as the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Other

data and assumptions outlined in the Technica l Support Document are used in this State

Implementation Plan (SIP) revision to th e ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, entitled, State

Implementation Plan Revision: NO X



# Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the

MOVES2010a Model Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton (ABE) 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance

Area , hereafter referred to as the SIP revision. Th e SIP revision demonstrates that replacing

highway emissions estimates using the MOVE S2010 model instead of using the MOBILE6.2

model to generate highway emissions estimates w ill not cause emissions from all sources in the

maintenance year to exceed all emissions in the attainment year. This Technical Support

Document will describe how emission estimates and emission growth rates that were used in

both the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan and this SIP revision were developed for all source

categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway).



# Point Source Category Emissions

Point sources include emissions from large comm ercial, institutional, a nd industrial facilities

such as chemical manufacturing facilities, large waste disposal sites, and la rge heating and

electric generating units (EGUs). Emission pr ojections used in the ABE Ozone Maintenance

Plan were prepared for the point source sector for 11 states, including Pennsylvania, and the

District of Columbia, for the Mid-Atlantic Re gional Air Management Association (MARAMA)

by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc. Future ye ar projections were de veloped by MACTEC so

that states could use the projec tions as inventories in their SI P revisions. Estimates were

prepared for years 2009 and 2018, and took into c onsideration both growth in economic activity

and additional controls.

For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future for all of the states’ ozone maintenance

plans, the point source in ventory of emissions is divided in to two subsectors – the EGU sector

and the non-EGU sector. Different projection met hods are used for those two sectors. The ABE

Area has six EGU emission sources and many non- EGU point sources. For the non-EGU point

source sector, growth factors were develope d by using the U.S. Environmental Protection

Agency’s (EPA) Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) Version 5.0. The U.S. Department

of Energy fuel consumption forecasts were used to replace default values for combustion sources

in EGAS 5.0. Additionally, state-supplie d population, employment, and other emission

projection data were used if either EGAS 5.0 values did not exist or if th e state-supplied data was

deemed better than default values given by EGAS 5.0.

# - 2 - 

# Point Source Category 2009 Emissions

Table 1 provides totals of NO X 

# emissions for both 2009 projected point source emissions in the

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan and the actual 2009 ABE Area point source emissions reported to

the Department by the point source operators after the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was

developed. 1 

# Table 1 demonstrates that point source emissions in the ABE Ozone Maintenance

Plan for 2009 were overestimated for NO X 

# . Table 2 lists the actual 2009 NO X 

# emissions from

the individual facilities in th e ABE Area. The annual emissions were divided by 365 days in a

year to obtain daily emissions.

Actual Emissions for 2009

Table 1: Point Source Emissions for 2009 - SIP Estimated versus Actual

Emissions for 2009 NO X 

# (tons/day)

Emissions in Maintenance Plan 58.3

Actual Emissions (actual

reported annual emissions in

Table 2 divided by 365 days) 27.0

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NO X 

# Point Source Inventory for the ABE Ozone Maintenance

Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS

Number Facility Name NO X 

# (tons/year)

420250001 ALTADIS USA INC/MCADOO PLT 42.6

420250013 HORSEHEAD CORP/PALMERTON 117.4

420250023 PANTHER CREEK

PARTNERS/NESQUEHONING PLT 531.4

420770003 GEO SPECIALTY CHEM/TRIMET PROD GROUP 31.0

420770011 PA DPW/ALLENTOWN STATE HOSP 21.5

420770019 LAFARGE CORP/WHITEHALL PLT 496.4

420770035 NESTLE PURINA/PETCARE PLT 7.7

1 

# Air Information Management System Submittal, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, 2009

# - 3 - EPA AFS

Number Facility Name NO X 

# (tons/year)

420770052 SAMUEL ADAMS PA BREWERY

CO/BREINIGSVILLE 13.9

420770065 KRAFT FOODS NORTH AMER

INC/ALLENTOWN 8.5

420770208 MUHLENBERG COLL/PHYSICAL PLT 6.3

420770562 ST LUKES HOSP/MAIN BOILER PLT 7.0

420770565 LEHIGH VALLEY HOSP/17TH & CHEW STS 35.4

420770589 AIR PROD & CHEM INC/TREXLERTOWN PLT 10.2

420770590 HAMILTON TEK PARTNERS/BREINIGSVILLE

PLT 6.7

420770671 LEHIGH VALLEY HOSP/ S CEDAR CREST 11.7

420950006 HERCULES CEMENT CO LP/STOCKERTOWN 1,557.0

420950010 PPL MARTINS CREEK LLC/MARTINS CREEK 814.7

420950011 GENON REMA LLC/PORTLAND GENERATING

STA 3,070.0

420950012 KEYSTONE PORTLAND CEMENT/EAST ALLEN 856.1

420950020 LAFAYETTE COLLEGE/EASTON 6.5

420950035 ROCKWOOD PIGMENTS/EASTON 12.0

420950045 ESSROC/NAZARETH LOWER CEMENT PLT 1 1,564.4

420950057 LEHIGH UNIV/PACKE R & MOUNTAINTOP

CAMPUSES 15.9

420950110 LEHIGH HEAVY FORGE CORP/BETHLEHEM 31.3

420950232 IESI PA BETHLEHEM LD/BETHLEHEM

FACILITY 7.4

420950254 CONECTIV BETHLE HEM LLC/BETHLEHEM 42.2

420950255 GREEN KNIGHT/PLAINFIELD LANDFILL GAS 45.3

420950256 LOWER MT BETHEL ENERGY LLC/BANGOR 83.6

420950536 NORTHAMPTON GEN CO/NORTHAMPTON 389.5

420950568 NORTHAMPTON CNTY/GRACEDALE CNTY

HOME BOILER PLT 7.0

420950930 CHRIN BROS SANI LDFL/CHRIN LDFL 15.9

POINT SOURCE TOTAL 9,866.1

# - 4 - 

# Point Source Category 2018 Emissions

Ideally, emissions growth could be compared between what was assumed in the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan and recently revised assumpti ons for emissions growth. Both sets of

assumptions are valid because the EPA requires that assumptions in growth be updated with each

revision to the maintenance plan. If the revi sed assumptions for grow th are less than those

assumed in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, then it can be easily shown that emissions in the

maintenance years are still below the emissions in the attainment year. However, when revised

growth in some types of point sources is higher, and in some types, the growth is lower,

emissions growth cannot be compared to show the new assumptions still maintain the ozone

standard. In that situ ation, a projected emissions inventory ne eds to be developed and compared.

For the ABE Area, a projected inventory for the maintenance year 2018 needed to be developed

to show maintenance with the standard.

The 2018 point source inventory for the ABE Oz one Maintenance Plan was developed for

MARAMA by MACTEC. More recently, an em issions inventory of all emission source

categories (point, area, nonroa d, and highway) was developed by MARAMA and MACTEC for

a regional modeling effort. Table 3 a nd Table 4 compare total emissions of NO X 

# produced by

point sources in the ABE Area w ith the recently developed invent ories. During the last year,

MARAMA developed inventories for the baselin e year of 2007 and pr ojected years of 2013,

2017, 2020, and 2025. 2 

# The difference in the inventory year s for the inventory used in the ABE

Ozone Maintenance Plan and new MARAMA/MAC TEC inventory development efforts did not

allow for easy comparison of growth factors used for projecting emissions. Projected emissions

in 2018 were estimated for this SIP revision us ing straight-line interpolation between the 2007

MARAMA baseline inventory and the 2020 MARA MA projected year inventory using the

following equation:

2018 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + ((2020 Emi ssions - 2007 Emissions) * (2018 - 2007) ÷

(2020 - 2007))

Emission projections of point sources in the AB E Ozone Maintenance Plan were overestimated

for the year 2018 when compared to newer emi ssions data derived by MARAMA (See Tables 3

and 4).

Table 3: ABE Ozone Maintenance Pl an – Emission Estimates for 2018

Year NO X



# Emissions

(tons/year) NO X



# Emissions

(tons/day)

2018 24,771 66.6

2 

# MARAMA 2007, 2017, and 2020 Baseline and Projected Inventories, Version 3, Ju lie McDill, Mid-Atlantic

Regional Management Association, Towson, MD, January 2012.

# - 5 - Table 4: SIP Revision – Revised Emission s Estimates of Point Sources for 2018 (MARAMA

2007 Baseline and 2020 Projected Inventories)

Year NO X 

# Emissions

(tons/year) NO X 

# Emissions

(tons/day)

2007 (Baseline) 14,432.7 39.5

2020 (Projected) 8,621.1 23.6

2018 (Interpolated) 9,515.2 26.1

Table 5 shows actual 2007 and projec ted 2020 facility emissions of NO X 

# for point sources in the

ABE Area.

Table 5: MARAMA 2007 Annual Baseline and 2020 Projected NO X 

# Point Source

Inventories for the ABE Ozone Mainte nance Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007

Baseline

NO X



# Emissions

(tons/year) 2020

Projected

NO X



# Emissions

(tons/year)

420250001 ALTADIS USA INC/MCADOO PLT 42.3 38.9

420250013 HORSEHEAD CORP/PALMERTON 134.3 136.2

420250023 PANTHER CREEK

PARTNERS/NESQUEHONING PLT 509.6 647.3

420770003 GEO SPECIALTY CHEM/TRIMET

PROD GROUP 47.3 25.1

420770011 PA DPW/ALLENTOWN STATE HOSP 17.0 24.1

420770019 LAFARGE CORP/WHITEHALL PLT 753.4 346.0

420770035 NESTLE PURINA/PETCARE PLT 7.5 10.6

420770052 SAMUEL ADAMS PA BREWERY

CO/BREINIGSVILLE 7.4 9.4

420770065 KRAFT FOODS NORTH AMER

INC/ALLENTOWN 9.8 13.9

420770208 MUHLENBERG COLL/PHYSICAL

PLT 6.4 9.1

420770562 ST LUKES HOSP/MAIN BOILER PLT 12.3 17.5

420770565 LEHIGH VALLEY HOSP/17TH &

CHEW STS 4.4 6.2

# - 6 - EPA AFS

Number Facility Name 2007

Baseline

NO X



# Emissions

(tons/year) 2020

Projected

NO X



# Emissions

(tons/year)

420770589 AIR PROD & CHEM

INC/TREXLERTOWN PLT 11.5 11.7

420770590 HAMILTON TEK

PARTNERS/BREINIGSVILLE PLT 4.8 6.8

420770671 LEHIGH VALLEY HOSP/S CEDAR

CREST 10.9 15.5

420950006 HERCULES CEMENT CO

LP/STOCKERTOWN 1,877.2 366.4

420950010 PPL MARTINS CREEK

LLC/MARTINS CREEK 3,677.4 1,858.1

420950011 GENON REMA LLC/PORTLAND

GENERATING STA 3,643.9 3,359.6

420950012 KEYSTONE PORTLAND

CEMENT/EAST ALLEN 946.0 412.8

420950020 LAFAYETTE COLLEGE/EASTON 18.0 19.6

420950035 ROCKWOOD PIGMENTS/EASTON 21.5 20.7

420950045 ESSROC/NAZARETH LOWER

CEMENT PLT 1 1,951.4 580.0

420950057 LEHIGH UNIV/PACKER &

MOUNTAINTOP CAMPUSES 37.0 20.1

420950110 LEHIGH HEAVY FORGE

CORP/BETHLEHEM 39.4 29.9

420950232 IESI PA BETHLEHEM

LD/BETHLEHEM FACILITY 55.1 58.2

420950254 CONECTIV BETHLEHEM

LLC/BETHLEHEM 70.1 113.9

420950255 GREEN KNIGHT/PLAINFIELD

LANDFILL GAS 52.1 26.1

420950256 LOWER MT BETHEL ENERGY

LLC/BANGOR 61.2 61.2

420950536 NORTHAMPTON GEN

CO/NORTHAMPTON 384.3 356.4

420950568 NORTHAMPTON

CNTY/GRACEDALE CNTY HOME

BOILER PLT 7.5 7.5

420950930 CHRIN BROS SANI LDFL/CHRIN

LDFL 11.7 12.3

TOTALS 14,432.7 8,621.1

# - 7 - 

# Area Source Category Emissions

The area source category includes emissions from sources such as surface coating, solvent use,

residential and commercial heating, and other so urces that emit small amounts of emissions on a

per use basis but have a large number of users. The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan relied on a

number of socioeconomic indicators to estimate emissions, and projections of emissions, such as:

population, industrial employment, employment, and industry specific growth factors. In the

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, a baseline ar ea source inventory of 2002 was grown using

socioeconomic factors of expect ed population and employment grow th. For some sources, such

as coal-, distillate-, or natura l gas-fired boilers, data from the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook or the

EGAS model was used to predict future growth and emissions. For other area source categories,

state-specific industry growth estimates supplied by the Department were used.



# Area Source Category 2009 Emissions

Table 6 shows a recent estimate of actual socioeconom ic indicators. Actual growth that occurred

from 2002 to 2009 was derived from data publis hed by the U.S. Department of Commerce,

Bureau of Census 3,4,5 

# and the Energy Information Administ ration, U.S. Department of Energy. 6



# The actual growth is compared side-by-side wi th the predicted growth from the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan. The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan over-predicted growth for most area

sources for the 2002 to 2009 timeframe. In two categories in the maintenance plan, actual

growth was slightly higher than predicted gr owth: population and natura l gas consumption in

boilers.

3 

# U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Population Estimates Program," T1. Population Estimates

Data Set: 2008 Population Estimates, available from h ttp://www.census.gov/popest/c ounties/CO-EST2009-01.html,

accessed October 2011.

4 

# U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Housing Unit Estimates, Data Set 2002 and 2009

Population Estimates, Note: For information on errors stemming from model error, sampling error, and nonsampling error, See: http://w ww.census.gov/popest/topics/method ology, accessed October 2011.

5 

# Employee and establishment numbers: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns,

http://factfinder.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html

6 

# Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, State Energy Data System - Consumption,

Physical Units, 1960-2006, available fr om: http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/sedsstates.cfm?q_state_a=PA&q_state=Pennsylvania

# - 8 - Table 6: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to

Projected Growth in the ABE A rea Maintenance Plan (2002-2009)

Surrogate Indicator for

Growth Actual

Use 2002 Actual

Use 2009 Actual

Growth

2002-2009 Maintenance

Plan Growth

(2002-2009)

Population 649,366 706,374 1.0878 1.0490

Total Employees 256,524 259,135 1.0102 1.0256

Total Coal Consumption

(Short Tons) 483,144 320,624 0.6636 1.0481

Total Natural Gas

Consumption (Million

Cubic Ft.) 28,158 30,663 1.0890 1.0106

Natural Gas Boilers ----- ----- ----- 1.0106

Natural Gas, Residential ----- ----- ----- 1.0841

Total Heating Oil

Consumption (Barrels) 3,065,516 3,055,657 0.9968 1.0731



# Area Source Category 2018 Emissions

The ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan estimated ar ea source sector grow th using a baseline

inventory from 2002 and growing emissions to the maintenance years of 2009 and 2018, based

on the growth of socioeconomic activity. 7 

# Data used to revise growth estimates in this SIP

revision was obtained from the sa me MARAMA inventory effort described in the point source

section above. The MARAMA effort used a baseline inventory of 2007 and maintenance year

inventories of 2017, 2020, and 2025. 8 

# Just as in the point sour ce emissions, these inventory

years made a direct comparison of emissions and growth rates difficult because the MARAMA

baseline years and projected inve ntory years were too dissimilar fr om what was included in the

ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Therefore, pr ojected emissions growth between 2009 and 2018

in this SIP revision was determined through linea r interpolation by using emission estimates for

2007 and 2020 from the new MARAMA inventory. Projected growth between 2009 and 2018 in

the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan was estimated using the 2009 and 2018 emission estimates.

The revised growth projections for this SIP revision are set forth in Table 7.

7 

# State Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance Plan and Base Year Inventory Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone

Nonattainment Area, September 2006, Appendix B-1, Area Source Methodology, p.2.

8 

# Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA), Technical Support Document for the

Development of the 2017/2020 Emissions Inventories for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast/MidAtlantic Region, Version 3.3, January 23, 2012, MARAMA Contract Agreement FY2011-004

# - 9 - The growth rate predicted in the ABE Ozone Ma intenance Plan from 2009 to 2018 is derived by

the following formula:

Growth Factor (2009-2018) 

# = ((Growth Factor (2002-2018) 

# - Growth Factor (2002-2009) 

# )

÷ Growth Factor (2002-2009) 

# ) + 1

A straight line interpolation between th e 2007 MARAMA baseline emissions and the 2020

MARAMA projected emissions was used to ca lculate emissions for the years 2009 and 2018.

From these interpolated emissions (see equations 1 and 2 below), the projected growth between

2009 and 2018 was calculated (see equation 3 below) . Fossil fuel combustion surrogates in

Table 7 represent most emissions of NO X 

# , while “population” and “employees” represent the

best surrogates for many source categories th at produce VOC emissions. The surrogates for

growth shown in Table 7 are used to predict revised growth for a large majority of emissions

from area source categories in this SIP revision.

(1) 2009 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + ( 2020 Emissions - 2007 Emissions)

* ((2009 – 2007) ÷ (2020-2007))

(2) 2018 Emissions = 2007 Emissions + ( 2020 Emissions - 2007 Emissions)

* ((2018 - 2007) ÷ (2020-2007))

(3) Emissions Growth (2009-2018) 

# = ((2018 Emission – 2009 Emissions)

÷ 2009 Emissions) + 1

Table 7: Revised Socioeconomic Data for the ABE Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to the

Projected Growth in the ABE A rea Maintenance Plan (2009-2018)

Indicator for Growth Revised Growth In

MARAMA

Inventory

(2009-2018) Maintenance Plan

Growth

(2009-2018)

Population 1.0373 1.0595

Employees 1.0319 1.0335

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9136 0.9983

Anthracite Coal, Commercial 0.0000 0.9865

All Combuster Types,

Distillate Oil, Residential 0.8226 0.9598

# - 10 - Indicator for Growth Revised Growth In

MARAMA

Inventory

(2009-2018) Maintenance Plan

Growth

(2009-2018)

Boilers and Internal

Combustion Engines, Natural

Gas, Commercial 1.0687 1.0521

Combuster Types, Natural

Gas, Residential 1.0188 1.0181

Table 7 shows that, for the most part, growth in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan is comparable

to new assumptions developed by the MARAMA inve ntory effort. It deserves mentioning that

the two sets of employee growth that are compared in Table 7 we re estimated using two different

methods. The MARAMA inventory estimated gr owth in employment based on statewide North

American Industry Classification System ( NAICS) codes. The NAICS codes proved too

cumbersome to establish employment growth on the county level. Employment growth in

Table 7 was derived from U.S Census Bureau in dustrial employment data and was not developed

by MARAMA. It is safe to assume that, due to the severe economic downturn experienced from

2007 to 2009, employee growth does not approach what was predicted in the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan. Emissions of NO X 

# from area sources are dominated by fossil fuel

combustion. While two categories, commercial natural gas consum ption and residential natural

gas consumption, show that the maintenance plan predicts less fossil fuel growth than current

growth assumptions in the MARAMA inventory, the difference in these two categories is small

enough to demonstrate that the emissions growth for 2018 is over-predicted in the maintenance

plan. In Table 7, the growth rate for the Commerc ial Anthracite Coal cate gory is listed as zero.

This reflects an error in the ABE Ozone Mainte nance Plan where this category was counted in

both the area and point source in ventories. When actual emissions for 2009 were reviewed, the

area source value became zero af ter subtracting out point so urces using EPA’s inventory

development methodology.



# Nonroad Source Category Emissions

Emissions from the nonroad category are produce d by many different types of vehicles and

equipment. The EPA’s NONROAD Model es timates emissions for over 200 types of

equipment, engines and vehicles. Nonroad e ngines and vehicles can be used for such

applications as construction, lawn and garden care, farming, and commercial and industrial

applications. In addition, emissions from thr ee types of activities (aircraft, locomotives, and

commercial marine vessels) are not estimated in the NONROAD Model but are still included in

the nonroad category. The aircraft , rail, and commercial marine emissions are estimated outside

of the NONROAD model. In the approved ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the NONROAD2005

model was used to estimate nonroad emissions. The model went through one major revision

since it was used for the maintenance plan. NONRO AD2008a is the latest vers ion of this model.

# - 11 - This new version of the model incorporated tw o reduction strategies th at affect engines and

vehicles in the nonroad sector:

 Diesel recreational marine standards in th e 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine

engines (73 FR 25098); and

 The October 2008 small spark ignition and sp ark ignition and recreational marine rule

(73 FR 59034).

For the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan, the Depart ment modified files in the NONROAD Model,

when state specific data was available for emi ssion categories such as residential lawn and

garden.

Emissions from nonroad sources have decrea sed since the submittal of the ABE Ozone

Maintenance Plan, as a result of the additional c ontrols mentioned in the bullet points above and

other controls that have been phased in with fleet turnover since 2004. The fleet turnover that

occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by newer

equipment and vehicles that meet more stringe nt emission standards has continued to lower

emissions in the nonroad sector since the late 199 0s and will continue to do so for the next 10

years. Emission reductions occurred across all segments of the nonroad category, including

construction equipment, farming equipment, locomotives, and lawn and garden equipment.

Modeling runs were not completed for the nonroa d emission source categories. The Department

will treat nonroad emissions in the ABE Area as non-changing from their 2004 levels for the

purpose of this SIP revision, even though fu ll scale modeling runs using the NONROAD2008a

would show nonroad emi ssions in a decline.



# Highway Source Category Emissions

Highway emissions were estimated by Michael Bake r, Jr., Inc., a consultant to the Pennsylvania

Department of Transportation. The methodology for estimating emissions of highway vehicles

is greatly different than what was used in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan because an entirely

new highway emissions model is being used. Hi ghway emissions are being estimated using the

MOVES2010 model instead of th e MOBILE6.2 model. With this change, a new set of inputs

was used in the MOVES2010 model. The method for forecasting traffic growth or vehicle miles

travelled remains the same as what was used in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan. Both this SIP

revision and the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan used the Statistical Evaluation of Projected

Traffic Growth

. 9 

# Revisions to Appendix C, entitled Appendix C, Maintenance Plan Update for

the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton 1997 Eight-H our Ozone Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle

Emission Budget Revisions Using MOVES2010a, is attached. Appendix C of this SIP revision

replaces Appendix C in the ABE Ozone Maintenan ce Plan in its entiret y. Appendix C of this

SIP revision combines sections C3 and C4, a nd deletes section C5 of Appendix C in the ABE

9 

# Statistical Evaluation of Projected Tr affic Growth: Transportation Research, Education, and Technology Transfer

ITQ, Contract Purchase Order No. 030219, Task 5, Final Report; March 14, 2005; Michael Baker Jr. Inc.

# - 12 - Ozone Maintenance Plan. Included in the revi sed Appendix C is Appendi x C-1, Mobile Source

Highway Emissions Inventory – An Explanation of Methodology.

The MOVES2010 model estimates that highway vehicle emissions increase greatly for NO X 

# for

the 2009 and 2018 maintenance years, when co mpared to the highway vehicle emission

estimates included in the ABE Ozone Maintenance Plan for those same years (See Table 8).

MOVES2010 also increases the emission estimate s of the 2004 attainment year. Despite the

emissions increases in the attainment and ma intenance years, MOVES2010-modeled emissions

of highway vehicles, like MOBILE6.2-modeled emi ssions of highway vehicles, still show a large

decrease in emissions between 2004 and 2009 and between 2004 and 2018.

Table 8: Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2

Emissions (tons/summer day) Revised MOVES2010a

Emissions (tons/summer day)



# 2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

NO X 

# 48.33 33.89 14.44 59.38 44.08 21.95

VOC 30.54 22.80 13.28 N/A* N/A N/A

*VOC emissions are not being revised in this SIP revision. VOC MVEBs developed

using MOBILE6.2 are sufficie nt and will be used for transportation conformity.

# APPENDIX C

Maintenance Plan Update for the

Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton

1997 Eight

- Hour Ozone Maintenance Area :

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions

Using MOVES 2 010a

Technical Support Document

Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

Prepared for:

Mobile Sources Section, Bureau of Air Quality

Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

PO Box 8468

Harrisburg, PA 17105

- 8468

Prepared by:

Michael Baker, Jr., Inc.

1304 Concourse Drive

Linthicum, MD 21090

410

- 689

- 3400

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area :

Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revision s



# Exhibit of Contents

EXECUTIVE 

# SUMMARY

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 1

R EVISED 

# E MISSIONS 

# I NVENTORY



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 1

A NALYSIS 

# M ETHODOLOGY



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 2

DATA SOURCES AND ANA LYSIS TOOLS

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 4

A NALYSIS 

# T OOLS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 4

T RAFFIC 

# D ATA 

# S OURCE 

# /F LEET 

# D ATA 

# I NPUTS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 5

T RAFFIC 

# G ROWTH 

# A SSUMPTIONS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 6

V EHICLE 

# P OPULATION 

# G ROWTH 

# A SSUMPTIONS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 7

I/M AND 

# F UEL 

# P ARAMETERS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 8

M ETEOROLOGY 

# D ATA



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 9

V EHICLE 

# T ECHNOLOGY 

# P ROGRAMS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 9

RESOURCES

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................. 10



# List of Exhibit s

E XHIBIT 

# 1: S UMMARY OF 

# A PPENDICES



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................... 1

E XHIBIT 

# 2: R EVISED 

# M OTOR 

# V EHICLE 

# E MISSIONS 

# U SING 

# MOVES2010 A



# ................................ ................................ ..... 2

E XHIBIT 

# 3: S UMMARY OF 

# A NALYSIS 

# T OOLS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 4

E XHIBIT 

# 4: PPSUITE P ROCESS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 5

E X HIBIT 

# 5: VMT G ROWTH 

# A SSUMPTIONS



# ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 7



# Summary of Appendices

Appendix C

- 1: Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

– An Explanation of Methodology

Appendix C

- 2: Emission Results for Ozone (VOC, NOx)

(By Year, Road Type and Source Type)

Appendix C

- 3 : MO VES Sample Input Files

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 1



# EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This technical appendix supports the revised maintenance plan for the Allentown

- Bethlehe m

- Easton Area

under the 1997 8

- hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone 1



# . Section 107 of the

Clean Air Act (CAA) establishes requirements for an area to be considered for redesignation. One of

those requirements includes the development of an emissions inventory of ozone precursors

, volatile

organic compounds (VOC) and nitroge n oxides (NOx)

, for a base year, the year the region attains the

ozone standard, and projection years including a year at least 10 years following redesignation. The

emissions inventory is used to demonstrate that projected emission levels are sufficient to maintain the

ozone standard. U.S. EPA’s r edesignation g uidance states, “A state may generally demonstrate

maintenance of the NAAQS by either showing that future emissions of a pollutant or its precursors will

not exceed the level of the attainment inve ntory, or by modeling to show that the future mix of sources

and emission rates will not cause a violation of the NAAQS.”

A maintenance plan and corresponding emissions inventory for the Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Area

was originally approved by EPA on March 4, 2008 as documented in the Federal Register ( 72 FR 48559 )

and was effective on April 3, 2008

. At that time, EPA also approved the motor vehicle emission budgets

(MVEBs) for VOC and NOx that were contained in the maintenance plan document. The ori ginal

budgets were developed using MOBILE6.2, the latest EPA

- approved emission model at that time. On

M arch 2, 2010 , EPA officially released MOVES2010 a to be used for all SIP submittals and future

transportation conformity analyses after a grace period th rough March 2, 201 3 . This maintenance plan

update revises the 2009 and 2018 MVEBs using MOVES2010 a

.

Appendix C has been provided to summarize the methodology and analysis results for the motor vehicle

emissions inventory. To complement this executive summary, attachments have been provided with

additional detail regarding the analysis methodology, the MOVES input parameter s, and the output

vehicle miles of travel ( VMT ) and emission results for the Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance

Area

. A summary of the appendices is shown below in Exhibit 1 :



# Exhibit 1 : Summary of Appendices

Appendix Title Description

C

- 1 Explanation of Methodology Provides a detailed summary of the methodology used to

calculate the VMT and emissions.



# C

- 2 Ozone (VOC, NOx)

Emission Results Provides emission e xhibit s by county, road type , and source

type categories for a July weekday in 2009 and 2018

.



# C

- 3 MOVES Sample

Input File Provides examples of the MOVES input files.



# R evised Emissions Inventory

A summary of the revised motor vehicle emissions for the Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Area is provided

in Exhibit 2

. Both VOC and NOx emission estimates have been developed using the MOVES2010 a

emission model and latest planning assumptions

. Emissions have been estimated for the 2004 attainment

year, 2009 and 2018. The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates from the original m aintenance plan have been

included in the e xhibit to illustrate relative changes in emissions.

1 

# Prepared for the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection by Michael Baker Jr. Inc. in 2012

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 2 

# Exhibit 2 : Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010 a

( Short Tons/Day)

Pollutant Sub Area Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010 a Emissions



# 2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018

VOC Lehigh Valley MPO 26.3 2 20. 60 12.4 0 20. 37 17. 47 9. 5 3

Carbon 4.2 3 3.4 0 2.3 0 2. 89 2. 36 1.3 0

Total 30.5 5 24. 00 14.7 0 23. 2 6 19

. 83 1 0

. 8 3

NOx Lehigh Valley MPO 40. 39 28.9 0 12.4 0 49

. 8 3 3 7

. 48 1 8

. 7 1

Carbon 7.9 5 5.9 0 3.0 0 9. 5 5 6. 6 0 3. 2 4

Total 48.3 4 34.8 0 15.4 0 59

. 3 8 4 4

. 08 2 1 .9 5



# Analysis Methodology

Guidance documents from EPA were used to develop the base and future year emissions inventories for

the Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area

. They include:

 Policy Guidance on the Use of MO VES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation

Conformity

, and Other Purposes

, US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA

- 420

- B

- 09

- 046, December 2009

.

 Technical Guidance on the Use of MO VES 20 10 for Emission Inventory Preparation in

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity , US EPA Office of Air and

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA

- 420

- B

- 10

- 023, April

20 10

.

 Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide f or MOVES2010a, EPA

- 420

- B

- 10

- 0 36

, August 20 10

.

The highway m obile source emission inventory was developed using available travel data and EPA’s

MOVES2010 a emission model. The methodologies used to produce the emission data conform to the

recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance . A mix of local data and national default

(internal to MO VES 2010a ) data has been used for this submission. Local data has been used for the

primary data items that have a significant impact on emissions. These include:

 Vehicle miles of travel ( VMT ) by vehicle type

.

 Average s peed d istribution

.

 Vehicle type mixes

.

 Source t ype p opulation (for light

- duty vehicles)

.

 Vehicle age distribution

.

 Hourly distributions

.

 Meteorology data

.

 Inspection/Maintenance p rogram

.

 Fuel s upply

.

M ost local data inputs to the analysis process reflect the latest planning assumptions based on 200 8 data

obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation ( PennDOT ) , the Bureau of Motor Vehicles

, and other local/national sources

. N ewer data was availa ble and was used for traffic forecast growth rates

,

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 3



# control strategies (e.g. Inspection

- Maintenance programs) , vehicle age distributions and f uel

characteristics.

The analysis methodology is consistent with past statewide inventory efforts including the 200 8 National

Emissions Inventory (NEI) submission. This includes the use of custom post processing software to

calculate hourly speeds and prepare key traffic input files to the MOVES2010 a emission model. A

detailed methodology is provided in Appendix C

- 1

. The following sections address the key input data

sources and analysis tools used for the emissions inventory for the Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Area

.

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 4



# DATA SOURCES AND ANALYSIS TOOLS

This section provides a summary of the key input data and analysis tools used for producing the

Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area emission s inventory. The key elements to t he modeling

protocol are described in the sections below. A more detailed description of the analysis process and

tools is provided in the methodology report s in Appendix C

- 1 through C

- 3

.



# Analysis Tools

The mobile vehicle emissions inventory analysis utilizes several key software/programs for producing the

county emissions totals. These tools are outlined in Exhibit 3

.



# Exhibit 3 : Summary of Analysis Tools

Tool Purpose

MO VES 2010 a Produces emission rates for each ozone

precursor

, VOC and NOx

.

PPSUITE Processes the highway data ; Calculates

hourly congested speeds for each state

roadway segment ; Prepares MO VES 2010a

input files ; Processes MO VES 2010a output

files into a summary report

.

CENTRAL Provides a batch menu driven process to

execute PPSUITE, MOVES 2010a and other

MYSQL steps.

The Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area inventory reflects the highway mobile source

emission estimations using EPA’s MO VES 2010a emission model. EPA’s MOVES model was officially

released on March 2, 2010 and was followed with a revised versi on (MOVES2010a) in August 2010.

The MOVES 2010a model provides a more robust estimate of emissions as compared to its predecessor

MOBILE6.2. MOVES2010a has been integrated with local traffic, vehicle fleet, environmental, fuel, and

control strategy data to estimate emissions

.

PPSUITE represents an enhanced version of the Post Processor for Air Quality (PPAQ) software system

that has been used for previous inventory and conformi ty submissions in Pennsylvania. The software has

under gone significant revision s to ensure consistency with the MO VES 2010a . PPSUITE was used to

calculate hourly congested speeds for each roadway link, apply vehicle type fractions, aggregate VMT,

prepare MOVES 2010a traffic

- related input files and process MOVES 2010a outputs

.

The PPSUITE software and process methodologies are consistent with that used for state inventories and

transportation conformity analyses throughout Pennsylvania

. Exhibit 4 summariz es the key functions of

PPSUITE.

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 5 

# Exhibit 4 : PPSUITE Process

CENTRAL is a menu

- driven software platform that execute s the PPSUITE and MOVES 2010a processes

in batch mode. The software allows users to execute runs for a variety of input options and integrates

custom MYSQL steps into the process. CENTRAL provides important quality control and assurance

steps including file naming and storage automation.



# Traffic Data Source/Fleet Data Inputs

Traffic Volume Data : The 200 8 P enn DOT Roadway Management System (RMS) data serves as the

primary highway data source for the county and functional class VMT estimates. The data source has

been updated to provide a “snapshot” of the regional roadway system and traffic volumes in 200 8 and is

also integrated with traffic signal locations . The data includes the 200 8 average annual daily traffic

(AADT) volumes for all state roadways in Pennsylvania. To account for additional local roadway VMT

and to ensure consist ency with reported Highway Performance Monitoring System ( HPMS ) VMT totals,

the 200 8 VMT totals are adjusted to match the 200 8 HPMS VMT totals reported to FHWA.

Seasonal Adjustments : Based on the requirements for ozone inventories, traffic volumes on ea ch RMS

roadway segment must be adjusted to a July weekday. The daily and monthly seasonal factors are

developed from data contained in the document, 200 8 Pennsylvania Traffic Data , prepared by

P enn DOT’s Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR) . The seasonal and daily factors provided in this

document are based on statistical analyses of 200 8 traffic counts taken at permanent and in

- pavement

ATR (automatic traffic recorder) locations throughout the state. Based on these seasonal traffic volumes,

the PPSUITE software calculates unique congested speeds for each roadway segment during an ozone

summer weekday scenario.

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 6



# Congested Speeds : PPSUITE calculates congested speeds by hour of the day for each roadway segment

and provides the information as input to the MO VES 2010a software. To disaggregate the daily RMS

volumes to hourly volumes, auto and truck hourly pattern data from P enn DOT’s 200 8 Pennsylvania

Traffic Data report are used to determine the temporal variations in traffic volumes.

Vehicle Population : Vehicle population is a key input that has an important impact on start and

evaporative emissions. MOVES 2010a requires the number of vehicles by 13 s ource t ypes to determine

evaporative emissions. State 2008 vehicle registration data was used to estimate vehicle population for

light

- duty vehicles and school buses . The data was split to source types using MOVES 2010a default

population data

. For transit buses, data from PennDOT and the National Transit Database (NTD) was

used to estimate transit bus popul ations by county

. For all other heavy

- duty vehicles, PPSUITE calculates

vehicle population based on the analysis year VMT for each source type and default MOVES 2010a ratios

of VMT and source type population (e.g. the number of miles per vehicle by source t ype). Vehicle

population is forecast based on projected household and population growth from Woods and Poole Inc.

for each Pennsylvania county. The growth rate methodology includes:

 Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households

 Limi ting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth assumptions

VMT by Source Type : The total VMT is disaggregated to the 13 MOVES 2010a source types. For this

inventory, the vehicle mix was calculated for each county and functional class grou ping utilizing a

combination of:

 2008 RMS truck percentages

 PennDOT and 2008 NTD transit data

 2008 school bus registration data

EPA’s MOVES 2010a default distribution of VMT by source type was used to determine the remaining

source type VMT percentages. The development of vehicle type pattern data input to the MO VES 2010a

software is described in more detail in Appendix C

- 1

.

Vehicle Age Distribution : Vehicle age distributions are required to be input by 13 source types . The

distributions reflect the perce ntage of vehicles in the fleet up to 31 years old

. A recent 2010 registration

download from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database has indicated a substantially

older fleet than recorded in the 2002

- 2008 period

. T he 2010 vehicle age distributions have been used for

this inventory

. Due to insufficient data, only data for light

- duty vehicles are used as local inputs ; and

heavy

- duty vehicle ages are calculated using the internal MOVES 2010a defaults for each Pennsylvania

County

. The reg istration data download is based on M OBILE6.2 vehicle categories

. T he data was

converted to source types using the EPA convertor spreadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a

emission model.



# Traffic Growth Assumptions

Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role in estimating future year emissions for the region. There

are many uncertainties affecting projections of traffic growth including the current economic conditions,

potential fuel prices, the impacts of Marcellus Shale activities in many count ies throughout the state, and

the future growth in population and employment. Growth rates for this emissions inventory were based

on an assessment of available data sources.

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 7



# For the 

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area , the follo wing data sources are available:

 PennDOT BPR Growth Rate forecasting system

.

 Regional Travel Model

.

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include the review and assessment of county

- specific growth

rates from a Penn DOT study originally completed in 2005 and do cumented in the report, Statistical

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14,

2005

. As part of that study, a statewide traffic growth forecasting system was developed that incorporates

traffic data from P enn DOT’s Traffic Information System and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is updated on a periodic basis. This system was last

updated in December of 2009 to develop new statistical relationships between historic VMT growth and

population (thru 2008). The forecast population was estimated from the Woods and Poole data “2010

State Profile”. The results of the study have been shared between P enn DOT, PaDEP, and other

Interagency Consultation Group members

, including the P ennsylvania Transportation

- Air Quality Work

Group ( which also includes EPA, FHWA, and representatives from larger MPOs within the state )

.

The growth rates from the PennDOT BPR forecasting sy s tem are evaluated against other availa ble data

including travel model growth and other insights. For the development of MVEBs, upper estimates of the

VMT growth range are used for the forecast analyses. From an air quality perspective, the use of the

upper boundary is conservative, and provi des for factors outside P enn DOT or PaDEP control (e.g.,

potential socio

- economic growth above current forecasts, fleet age distributions, vehicle type distribution)

that influence motor vehicle emissions. Exhibit 5 summarizes the assumed projected growth of VMT for

future analysis years in the 

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area

.



# Exhibit 5 : VMT Growth Assumptions

Analysis

Year Total Growth

f rom 2004 Annualized Growth Rate

from Previous Year

Lehigh Valley MPO

2004

---- ----

2009 2.5% 0.5%

2018 2 5

. 5 % 1. 8 %

Carbon

2004

---- ----

2009

- 2.7%

- 0.5%

2018 23.8 % 1. 7 %



# Vehicle Population Growth Assumptions

Vehicle population growth forecasting plays a n important key role in determining emissions for future

year s for the region . For this inventory, v ehicle population was forecasted considering the growth from

three different sources:

 Household growth

 Population Growth

 VMT Growth

The household and population data w ere obtained from the PennDOT study documented in the rep ort as

discussed above, Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System:

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 8



# Final Report, March 14, 2005

. The forecast household and population w ere estimated from the Woods

and Poole data “2010 State Profile”. The highest growth between household and population data was

obtained by county and compared with VMT growth and a factor was chosen limiting growth to VMT

growth.



# I/M and Fuel Parameters

I/M Program: The i nspection m aintenance (I/M) program inputs t o the MO VES 2010a model are based

on past and current programs within each county (all PA I/M programs are based on county boundaries).

All analysis year s include Pennsylvania’s statewide program

. The MOVES 2010a model ha s simplified

the I/M program input parameter s compared to MOBILE6.2

. The default I/M program parameters

included in MOVES 2010a were examined for each county and necessary changes made to the defaults to

match the actual local program.

In order to assure that emission controls are working properly, vehicle inspection and maintenance (I/M)

programs have been adopted in some nonattainment areas. These programs have the added benefit of

improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles

. The Pennsylvania inspection and maintenance (I/M) program

was upgraded and expanded throughout the state with a phase

- in period starting in September 2003 and

fully implemented by June 2004.

The program requirements vary by region (five regions) and include on

- board diagnostics (OBD)

technology that uses the vehic le’s computer for model years 1996 and newer to identify potential engine

and exhaust system problems that could a ffect emissions. The program, named PAOBDII, is

implemented by region, as follows:

 Philadelphia Region

- Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgo me ry and Philadelphia Counties

 Pittsburgh Region

- Allegheny, Beaver, Washin gton and Westmoreland Counties

 South Central and Lehigh Valley Region

- Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon,

Lehigh, Northampton and York Counties

 North Region

- Blair, Ca mbria, Centre, Erie, Lackawanna, Luzerne , Lycoming, and Mercer

Counties

 Other 42 Counties

– Includes Carbon County

The OBDII program is implemented in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh along with tailpipe (idle in Pittsburgh

and idle and ASM in Philadelphia) and gas cap tests. Tests in other regions include:

 Subject vehicles registered in the South Central and Lehigh Valley counties receive the visual,

OBD and gas cap tests.

 Subject vehicles registered in the North region receive a gas cap test and visual in spection.

 Subject vehicles registered in the other 42 counties (67 total counties) receive a visual inspection

as part of the annual safety inspection.

Fuel Assumptions : The MOVES 2010a default fuel formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and

u pdated based on available local volumetric fuel property information. The gasohol market penetration

and RVP values were updated but MOVES 2010a default data was used for the remaining parameters.

Updated assumptions included:

 8.7 RVP used for summer months.

 Conventional gasoline used throughout the year for analysis year 2004.

 32% market share of conventional gasoline and 68% market share of 10% ethanol used

throughout the year for analysis year 2009.

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 9



#  10% ethanol used throughout the year for analysis year 2018.

These assumptions, as well as the I/M program parameters, are summarized in Appendix C

- 3

.



# Meteorolog

y Data

Updated weather information has been obtained from WeatherBank, Inc. ( www.weatherbank.com ). The

10

- year average minimum and maximum monthly temperature and relative humidity values were

obtained for each of the 9 airport locations in Pennsylvania.

The MOVES 2010a model requires temperature and relative humidity data for each hour of the day.

EPA’s data converters were used to convert minimum and maximum daily temperatures to an hourly

temperature profile that could be input to MOVES 2010a

. These assumptions are consistent with the 2008

NEI inventory submission.



# Vehicle Technology Programs

Federal Programs

Current f ederal vehicle emissions control and fuel programs are incorporated into the MO VES 2010a

software. The se include the National Program standards covering model year vehicles through 2016.

Modifications of default emission rates ar e required to reflect the early implementation of the National

Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV) program in Pennsylvania. To reflect these impacts, EPA has

released instructions and input files that can be used to model these impacts. This inventory ut ilized the

August 2010 version of the files ( http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/moves/tools.htm ).

State Programs

The Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles (PCV) Program, adopted in 1998, incorporated the California Low

Emission Vehicle Program (CA LEVII) by referen ce

, although it allowed automakers to comply with the

NLEV program as an alternative to this Pennsylvania program until MY 2006. Beginning with MY 2008,

“new” passenger cars and light

- duty trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 pounds

o r less that are sold or leased and titled in Pennsylvania must be certified by the California Air Resources

Board (CARB) or be certified for sale in all 50 states. For this program, a “new” vehicle is a qualified

vehicle with an odometer reading less than 7,500 miles. Pa DEP and PennDOT worked with the

automobile manufacturers, dealers and other interested business partners and finalized procedures for

complying with these new requirements. DEP focus es its outreach effort with the manufacturers and

dealers regarding what vehicles can be offered for sale and how to certify that the vehicles are compliant.

PennDOT’s role is to ensure licensing and registration records include these certifications of compliance

or that the vehicle owner qualifies for an exemp tion to the requirements. In all cases, DEP will use

information obtained during PennDOT’s title and registration process to oversee and audit, as needed,

certain vehicle title transactions to determine compliance to the program.

The impacts of this pro gram are modeled for a ll analysis years beyond 2008 using the same instructions

and tools as downloaded for the early NLEV analysis. EPA provided input files to reflect the CAL LEVII

program. Modifications to those files were made to reflect a 2008 start date for Pennsylvania.

# Allentown

- Bethlehem

- Easton Maintenance Area MVEB Budget Revisions: Executive Summary 10



# RESOURCES

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MOVES2010a, EPA

- 420

- B

- 10

- 036, August 2010.

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES 20 10 for Emission Inventory Preparation in State

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA

- 420

- B

- 10

- 023, April 2010.

200 8 Pennsylvania Traffic Data

, PENNDOT Bureau of Planning and Research, 200 8

.

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Development, Transportation Conformity

, and Other

Purposes , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA

- 420

- B

- 09

- 046, December 2009.

Instructions for Using LEV and NLEV Inputs for MOVES, US EPA, EPA

- 420

- B

- 10

- 003a, August 2010.

Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Growth Forecasting System: Final Report,

Michael Baker Jr., Inc., March 14, 2005.

Metrological Data from Weather Bank, Inc., www.weatherbank.com

# APPENDIX C-1

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton Area

An Explanation of Methodology

# An Explanation of Methodology 

# Explanation of Methodology

May 2012



# TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ......................................

................................................... ................................................... ........... 1

O VERVIEW OF 

# E MISSIONS 

# I NVENTORIES



# .................................................. ................................................... ............... 1

H IGHWAY 

# V EHICLE 

# E MISSION 

# I NVENTORIES



# .................................................. ................................................... ........ 1

WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA? ..........

................................................... ........................ 4

S UMMARY OF 

# MOVES I NPUTS



# .................................................. ................................................... ............................. 4

V EHICLE 

# M ILES OF 

# T RAVEL 

# (VMT) .............................................

................................................... .......................... 5

A DJUSTMENTS TO 

# R OADWAY 

# D ATA



# .................................................. ................................................... ..................... 8

V EHICLE 

# T YPE 

# P ROCESSING



# .................................................. ................................................... ................................. 9

V EHICLE 

# F LEET AND 

# P OPULATION 

# D ATA



# .................................................. ................................................... ........... 10

E NVIRONMENTAL



# , F UEL AND 

# T ECHNOLOGY 

# A SSUMPTIONS



# .................................................. .................................. 11

SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE ...............

................................................... ............................ 12

V OLUME 

# /VMT D EVELOPMENT



# .................................................. ................................................... .......................... 12

S PEED 

# /D ELAY 

# D ETERMINATION



# .................................................. ................................................... ......................... 15

HPMS AND 

# VMT A DJUSTMENTS



# .................................................. ................................................... ....................... 16

MOVES E MISSIONS 

# R UN



# .................................................. ................................................... ................................... 17

RESOURCES .........................................

................................................... ................................................... .............. 18

HIGHWAY VEHICLE INVENTORY GLOSSARY ................

................................................... .......................... 19



# List of Exhibits

E XHIBIT 

# 1: S UMMARY OF 

# PPSUITE P ROCESS



# .................................................. ................................................... ........... 3

E XHIBIT 

# 2: MOVES L OCAL 

# D ATA 

# I NPUT 

# S UMMARY



# .................................................. ................................................... 4

E XHIBIT 

# 3: P ENN 

# DOT U RBAN 

# /R URAL AND 

# F UNCTIONAL 

# C LASS 

# C ODES



# .................................................. ..................... 6

E XHIBIT 

# 4: E MISSION 

# F ACTOR VS



# . S PEED 

# V ARIANCES 

# (NO X 

# ) ................................................. ....................................... 7

E XHIBIT 

# 5: MOVES S OURCE 

# T YPES AND 

# HPMS V EHICLE 

# G ROUPS



# .................................................. ............................ 9

E XHIBIT 

# 6: PPSUITE S PEED 

# / E MISSION 

# E STIMATION 

# P ROCEDURE



# .................................................. ............................ 13

# Appendix C-1 1



# INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this document is to explain how the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental

Protection (Department) estimates emissions from hi ghway vehicles for inclusion in its emission

inventories and State Implementation Plans.



# Overview of Emissions Inventories

The Department’s inventories generally categorize e missions into four categories:

• Highway vehicles.

• Stationary sources (major industrial, commercial an d utility sources).

• Area sources (smaller industrial/commercial sources , consumer products).

• Nonroad mobile sources (including construction and agricultural equipment, lawn and garden

equipment).

An evaluation of emissions from point, area, and mo bile sources is needed to develop a complete

inventory needed for a maintenance demonstration pl an. This documentation addresses the mobile source

activity and emissions for base and future years us ed to support such a demonstration.

Of all of the sources of air pollution, only the em issions of some stationary sources are measured dir ectly

and continuously through instrumentation. Emission s from all other sources must be modeled based on

available local data, including those from highway vehicles. In their very simplest form, estimates o f

emissions follow the following pattern:

Emission rate x activity level = emissions per time period (usually day or year)

Most emission rates have been developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in

cooperation with industry and states, and are compi led and documented into key references or emission

models. These include Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors (AP-42), the Motor Vehicle

Emission Simulator (MOVES) model, and the NONROAD m odel. Adding up the products of the

emission rates and activity levels for all sources of a given pollutant constitutes the emission inven tory for

that pollutant.



# Highway Vehicle Emission Inventories

Highway vehicles contribute significantly to air po llution, particularly to ground-level ozone, which is the

most persistent air pollutant in Pennsylvania. Gro und-level 

# ozone is not emitted directly to the

atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical reaction s between volatile organic compounds

(VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO

x 

# ) in the presence of sunlight. The long, hot, humi d days of

summer are particularly conducive to ozone formatio n, so ozone levels are of concern primarily

during the months of May through September. Both VOCs and NOx are emitted from highway

vehicles. Pennsylvania’s ozone-related emission in ventory efforts focus on these two types of polluta nts.

Obviously, direct measurement of emission levels fr om all vehicles in use is impossible. In compariso n

to highway vehicles, estimating residential heating emissions is a fairly simple calculation because t here

is a constant emission rate and a fairly simple mea sure of activity. However, for highway vehicles

# Appendix C-1 2



# estimating the emission rate and activity levels of all vehicles on the road during a typical summer d ay is

a complicated endeavor.

If every vehicle emitted the same amount of polluti on all the time, one could simply multiply those

emission standards (emission rate in grams of pollu tion per mile) times the vehicle miles traveled (VM T)

to estimate total emissions. But emission rates fr om all vehicles vary over the entire range of condi tions

under which they operate. These variables include air temperature, speed, traffic conditions, operati ng

mode and fuel characteristics. The inventory must also account for non-exhaust or evaporative emissio ns.

In addition, the fleet is composed of several gener ations and types of vehicles with different emissio n

control technologies. This requires the estimation algorithm include the composition of the fleet (veh icle

ages and types).

In order to estimate both the rate at which emissio ns are being generated and to calculate vehicle mil es

traveled (activity level), Pennsylvania examines it s road network and fleet to estimate vehicle activi ty.

For ozone-related inventories, this is done for a t ypical summer weekday. For carbon monoxide (CO) an d

particulate matter (PM) emission inventories, this may be done for a typical winter weekday, summer

weekday and/or annual conditions. Not only must th is be done for a baseline year, but it must also be

projected into the future. This process involves a large quantity of data and is extremely complex.

Computer models have been developed to perform thes e calculations by simulating the travel of vehicles

on the Commonwealth’s roadway system. The models a lso generate emissions rates (also called emission

factors) for different vehicle types for area-speci fic conditions, and then combine them in summary fo rm.

The area-specific conditions include vehicle and hi ghway data, plus control measure characteristics an d

future year projections of all variables. The key models used to generate this mobile source emission s

inventory are:

MOVES: EPA’s MOVES model was officially released on Marc h 2, 2010 and was followed with a

revised version (MOVES2010a) in August 2010. The M OVES model provides a more robust estimate of

emissions as compared to its predecessor MOBILE6.2. MOVES calculates average in-use fleet emissions

for each of thirteen categories of vehicles under v arious conditions affecting in-use emission levels (e.g.,

ambient temperatures, average traffic speeds, gasol ine volatility) as specified by the model user.

For this mobile source inventory, Pennsylvania used MOVES2010a as approved by EPA. MOVES can

be used to estimate national, state, and county lev el inventories of criteria air pollutants, precurso rs,

greenhouse gas emissions, and some mobile source ai r toxics from highway vehicles. Additionally,

MOVES can make projections for energy consumption ( total, petroleum-based, and fossil-based).

PPSUITE: For the Department’s highway emissions inventory, a post processor named PPSUITE

(formerly named PPAQ - Post Processor for Air Quali ty) is used, which consists of a set of programs th at

perform the following functions:

• Analyzes highway operating conditions.

• Calculates highway speeds.

• Compiles vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and vehicle type mix data.

• Prepares MOVES runs and processes MOVES outputs.

PPSUITE is a widely used and accepted tool for esti mating speeds and processing emissions rates. The

software is based upon accepted transportation engi neering methodologies. For example, PPSUITE uses

speed and delay estimation procedures based on plan ning methods provided in the Highway Capacity

Manual , a report prepared by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) summarizing current knowledge

and analysis techniques for capacity and level-of-s ervice analyses of the transportation system.

# Appendix C-1 3



# The PPSUITE process is integral to producing key in put files to the MOVES emission model. Exhibit 1

summarizes the key functions of PPSUITE and the tra ffic-related input files prepared for the MOVES

County Data Manager (CDM).



# Exhibit 1: Summary of PPSUITE Process

The following sections summarize the key data and m ethodologies used to produce the mobile source

emissions inventory. This includes a summary of lo cal data sources and a step-by-step review of the

speed calculation process. The emission data and p rocess has been developed according to

recommendations provided by EPA in key policy and t echnical guidance as provided below:

• Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Dev elopment, Transportation

Conformity, and Other Purposes , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09-

046, December 2009.

• Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emis sion Inventory Preparation in

State Implementation Plans and Transportation Confo rmity , US EPA Office of Air and

Radiation, and Office of Transportation and Air Qua lity, EPA-420-B-10-023, April

2010.

The process has focused on developing an emissions inventory using the available tools and data to its

fullest extent. This includes the use of available local data for items that have a significant impac t on

emissions and applying a robust calculation process to estimate hourly traffic speeds.

# Appendix C-1 4



# WHERE DOES PENNSYLVANIA OBTAIN ITS DATA?

Summary of MOVES Inputs

A large number of inputs to MOVES are needed to ful ly account for the numerous vehicle and

environmental parameters that affect emissions. Th ese include traffic flow characteristics (as determ ined

from the PPSUITE software), vehicle descriptions, f uel parameters, inspection/maintenance program

parameters, and environmental variables. MOVES incl udes a default national database of meteorology,

vehicle fleet, vehicle activity, fuel, and emission control program data for every county; but EPA can not

certify that the default data is the most current o r best available information for any specific area. As a

result, local data is recommended for use for analy ses supporting state implementation plans (SIPs).

A mix of local and default data is used for this in ventory. Local data sources are used for all input s that

have a significant impact on calculated emission ra tes. Exhibit 2 summarizes Pennsylvania-specific

inputs assembled and used for this inventory. Thes e data items are discussed in the following section s.



# Exhibit 2: MOVES Local Data Input Summary

Traffic Vehicl e Fuel Inspection Environmental

Data Descripti ons Parameters M aintenance Variables

Vehicle Type Vehicle Type RVP Start Year Hourly

VMT Mix Model Years Temperatures

Vehicle Vehicle Age Sulfur Test Standards,

Population Distribution Level Source Types, Humidity

Frequency

VMT Average Speeds Ethanol Stringency,

Fractions (PPSUITE) Volume Waiver Rate,

(PPSUITE) Compliance

Road Type Hourly Refueling

Distribution Distributions Controls

(PPSUITE)

Ramp

Fraction

(PPSUITE)

Emission Rates

# Appendix C-1 5



# Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT)

The VMT input to emissions calculations for Pennsyl vania is based on information from the Roadway

Management System (RMS) maintained by the Pennsylva nia Department of Transportation’s

(PennDOT’s) Bureau of Planning and Research (BPR). PennDOT obtains this information from periodic

visual and electronic traffic counts. RMS data is dynamic, since it is continually reviewed and updat ed

from new traffic counts and field visits conducted by PennDOT. Information on roadways included in th e

National Highway System is reviewed at least annual ly, while information on other roadways is reviewed

at least biennially.

On a triennial basis, a current “snapshot” of the R MS database is taken and downloaded to provide an u pto-date record of the Commonwealth’s highway system for estimating emissions. This emissions

inventory is based on the most current snapshot of the RMS data.

The RMS database contains all state highways, inclu ding the Pennsylvania Turnpike, divided into

segments approximately 0.5 miles in length. These segments are usually divided at important

intersections or locations where there is a change in the physical characteristics of the roadway (e.g . the

number of lanes changes). There are approximately 99,000 state highway segments for the 67

Pennsylvania counties contained in the RMS. Each o f these segments contains an abundance of

descriptive data, but only the following informatio n is extracted for emission calculations:

• Lanes.

• Distances.

• Volumes representing Average Annual Daily Traffic ( AADT).

• Truck percentages.

• PennDOT urban/rural classifications.

• PennDOT functional class codes.

• Number of signals (based on linkage to PennDOT GIS signal location data).

RMS volumes and distances are used in calculating h ighway VMT totals for each county. As discussed

in the next section, adjustments are needed to conv ert the volumes to an average summer weekday, winte r

weekday, and monthly day. In addition, the traffic volumes must be forecast to support future year

emission inventories. Lane values and traffic sign als are an important input for determining the

congestion and speeds for individual highway segmen ts. Truck percentages are used in the speed

determination process and are used to split volumes to individual vehicle types used by the MOVES

software.

Road segments are classified by function, as well a s whether it is located in an urban, small urban or rural

area, as indicated below in Exhibit 3. The PennDOT urban/rural (UR) and functional classes (FC) are

important indicators of the type and function of ea ch roadway segment. The variables provide insights

into other characteristics not contained in the RMS data that are used for speed and emission calculat ions.

# Appendix C-1 6 

# Exhibit 3: PennDOT Urban/Rural and Functional Class Codes

Urban/Rural Code 1=Rural

2=Small Urban

3=Urban

Functional Class Rural Functional Classes Used Urb an Functional Classes Used

For Rural Areas For Small Urban and Urban Area s

------------------------------------- ---------- -------------------------------- 1=Rural Freeway 11=Urban Freeway

2=Rural Other Principal Arterial 12=Urban Expres sway

6=Rural Minor Arterial 14=Urban Principal Arter ial

7=Rural Major Collector 16=Urban Minor Arterial

8=Rural Minor Collector 17=Urban Collector

9=Rural Local 19=Urban Local



# Additional Network Information: The PPSUITE software system allows for many additio nal variables

other than those available in the RMS database. Us ing these variables improves the ability of the

Department to incorporate real roadway conditions i nto its estimates. The variables include informati on

regarding free-flow speeds and capacities, signal c haracteristics and other physical roadway features that

can affect a roadway’s calculated congested speed. This data can be determined from lookup tables bas ed

on a roadway segment’s urban/rural code and functio nal class. Much of the lookup table data was

developed from information contained in the Highway Capacity Manual , PennDOT information on

speeds and signal densities, and other engineering judgment.

MOVES Traffic Inputs: The PPSUITE software uses RMS traffic data to prep are key inputs to the

MOVES emission model including:

• VMT.

• Travel speeds.

• Road type distributions.

• Ramp fractions.

VMT is the primary traffic input that affects emiss ion results. The roadway segment distances and tra ffic

volumes are used to prepare estimates of VMT. PPSU ITE performs these calculations and outputs the

MOVES annual VMT input file to the County Data Mana ger (CDM).

Emissions for many pollutants (including both VOC a nd NOx) vary significantly with travel speed.

While VOCs generally decrease as speed increases, N Ox decreases at the low speed range and increases

at higher speeds, as illustrated in Exhibit 4. To obtain the best estimate of vehicle speeds, the Dep artment

uses the PPSUITE set of programs, whose primary fun ction is to calculate speeds and to organize and

simplify the handling of large amounts of data need ed for calculating speeds and for preparing MOVES

input files. The PPSUITE software prepares the MOV ES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by speed bin file

which summarizes the distribution of speeds across all links into each of 16 MOVES speed bins for each

hour of the day. This robust process ensures that MOVES emission rates are used to the fullest extent and

is consistent with the methods and recommendations provided in EPA’s Technical Guidance on the Use

of MOVES2010 for Emissions Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation

Conformity

.

# Appendix C-1 7 

# Exhibit 4: Emission Factor vs. Speed Variances (NOx )

In MOVES, typical drive cycles and associated opera ting conditions vary by the type of roadway.

MOVES defines five different road types as follows:

1 Off-Network.

2 Rural Restricted Access.

3 Rural Unrestricted Access.

4 Urban Restricted Access.

5 Urban Unrestricted Access.

The off-network road type includes emissions from v ehicle starts, extended idle activity, and evaporat ive

emissions. Off-network activity in MOVES is primar ily determined by the Source Type Population

input, as discussed in a following section. The re maining distribution among road types is determined by

equating the PennDOT functional class with each MOV ES road type as follows:

• MOVES Road Type (2) = PennDOT Functional Class (1).

• MOVES Road Type (3) = PennDOT Functional Class (2,6 ,7,8,9).

• MOVES Road Type (4) = PennDOT Functional Class (11, 12).

• MOVES Road Type (5) = PennDOT Functional Class (14, 16,17,19).

For this inventory, the MOVES road type distributio n file is automatically generated by PPSUITE using

the defined equivalencies.

Since ramps are not directly represented within the RMS database information, it is assumed that 8% of

the Freeway VHT is Ramp VHT. This is consistent wi th the recommendations provided in EPA’s

technical guidance. Source: Figure 3 from Implications of the MOVES2010 Model on Mobile

Source Emission Estimates, Air & Waste Management A ssociation, July 2010.

# Appendix C-1 8



# Adjustments to Roadway Data

Before the RMS data can be used by PPSUITE for spee d and emission calculations, several adjustments

and additions must be made to the roadway data. Th ese adjustments are summarized below.

HPMS Adjustments: According to EPA guidance, baseline inventory VMT computed from the RMS

highway segment volumes must be adjusted to be cons istent with Highway Performance Monitoring

System (HPMS) VMT totals. The HPMS VMT reported for Pennsylvania is a subsystem of the RMS

established to meet the data reporting requirements of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and

to serve as PennDOT’s official source of highway in formation. Although it has some limitations, the

HPMS system is currently in use in all 50 states an d is being improved under FHWA direction.

Although the HPMS VMT and the roadway data used for an inventory emissions analysis are both based

on data from the RMS system, differences do exist b etween them and include the following. First, the

HPMS and inventory roadway data are “snapshots” of the RMS data taken at different times. Since the

RMS is dynamic, changing constantly due to new data , differences will result between the data used for

calculating HPMS VMT totals and the inventory data used for an emissions analysis. Second, since the

RMS does not contain many of the local roadways, lo cal road estimates of HPMS VMT are obtained

through alternative procedures developed by PennDOT . To account for such differences, adjustment

factors are calculated and used to adjust the inven tory roadway data to the reported HPMS VMT totals

submitted to FHWA. The VMT contained in the HPMS re ports are considered to represent average

annual daily traffic (AADT).

Adjustment factors are calculated which adjust the base year RMS download VMT to the reported HPMS

totals for that year. These factors are developed for each county and functional class combination an d are

also applied to all future year runs. Adjustments for the “higher” functional classes (e.g. Freeway,

Arterials - major routes) are close to 1.000 since HPMS VMT is derived from RMS information, and the

only difference in the data is that the “snapshot” for the emission calculations is taken at a differe nt time

than for the HPMS. “Lower” classes (e.g. local roa ds) require greater adjustment since a large part o f the

local system is not under state jurisdiction and is not in the RMS database. There is, of course, a

significant amount of local road mileage in the sta te. It is assumed that those local streets that are in RMS

are representative of all local streets in their ar ea with respect to volume and speed, so that roadwa y

mileage adjustment is appropriate.

Seasonal Adjustments to Volumes: The RMS contains AADT volumes that are an average of all days in

the year, including weekends and holidays. An ozo ne emission analysis, however, is based on a typica l

July or summer weekday. PM and CO analyses requir e volumes representing a typical summer or winter

weekday and monthly average conditions (needed for producing annual totals). Therefore, the RMS

volumes must be seasonally adjusted. Seasonal fact ors were developed for each functional class and

urban/rural code based on yearly count information prepared by PennDOT’s BPR. These factors are

applied to the existing RMS AADT volumes to produce the July volumes. The same factors are also used

to develop the MOVES daily and monthly VMT fraction files.

Hourly Adjustments: Speeds and emissions vary considerably depending on the time of day.

Therefore, it is important to estimate the pattern by which roadway volume varies by hour of the day. The

24-hour pattern data provides PPSUITE with informat ion used to split the daily roadway segment

volumes to each of the 24 hours in a day. Pattern data is in the form of a percentage of the daily vo lumes

for each hour. Distributions are provided for each county and functional class grouping. This data i s

developed from 24-hour count data compiled by PennD OT’s BPR, according to the process in the

agencies annual traffic data reports. The same fac tors are also used to develop the MOVES hourly

fraction file.

# Appendix C-1 9



# Traffic Volume Forecasts: Traffic growth forecasting plays a pivotal role i n estimating future year

emissions for the region. There are many uncertain ties affecting projections of traffic growth, inclu ding

the current economic conditions, potential fuel pri ces, the impacts of Marcellus Shale activities in m any

counties throughout the state, and the future growt h in population and employment. Growth rates for t he

Department’s emissions inventories are based on an assessment of available data sources which include:

• PennDOT BPR growth rate forecasting system.

• Regional travel model, if available.

• Estimates of Marcellus Shale related activity growt h, if applicable.

All SIP mobile source highway inventories include t he review and assessment of county-specific growth

rates from a PennDOT study originally completed in 2005 and documented in the report, Statistical

Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth, Traffic Gro wth Forecasting System: Final Report, March 14,

2005 . As part of that study, a statewide traffic growt h forecasting system was developed that incorporate s

traffic data from PennDOT’s Traffic Information Sys tem and socioeconomic forecasts. That forecasting

system is maintained by the PennDOT BPR and is upda ted on a periodic basis to develop new statistical

relationships between historic VMT growth and popul ation and updated demographic forecasts from

Woods and Poole, Inc. The growth rates from the Pe nnDOT BPR forecasting system are evaluated

against other available data including travel model growth and other insights.



# Vehicle Type Processing

Emission rates within MOVES vary significantly by t he type of vehicle. The MOVES model produces

emissions and rates by thirteen MOVES vehicle sourc e types. However, VMT is input to MOVES by six

HPMS vehicle groups. Exhibit 5 summarizes the dist inction between each classification scheme.



# Exhibit 5: MOVES Source Types and HPMS Vehicle Grou ps

SOURCE TYPES HPMS Class Groups

11 Motorcycle 10 Motorcycle

21 Passenger Car 20 Passenger Car

31 Passenger Truck 30 Passenger/Light Truck

32 Light Commercial Truck 40 Buses

41 Intercity Bus 50 Single Unit Trucks

42 Transit Bus 60 Combination Trucks

43 School bus

51 Refuse Truck

52 Single Unit Short-haul Truck

53 Single Unit Long-haul Truck

54 Motor Home

61 Combination Short-haul Truck

62 Combination Long-haul Truck



# The process used for this inventory includes a meth od to disaggregate the RMS traffic volumes to the

thirteen source types and then to recombine the est imates to the six HPMS vehicle classes. Vehicle ty pe

pattern data is used by PPSUITE to divide the hourl y roadway segment volumes to the thirteen MOVES

source types. Similar to the 24-hour pattern data, this data contains percentage splits to each sourc e type

for every hour of the day. The vehicle type patter n data for this inventory is developed from several

sources of information:

# Appendix C-1 10



# • PennDOT truck percentages from the RMS database.

• Hourly distributions for trucks and total traffic c ompiled by PennDOT’s BPR.

• Transit data from PennDOT and the National Transit Database.

• School bus registration data from PennDOT’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles Registration Database.

The vehicle type pattern data is developed for each county and functional class combination. First, R MS

truck percentages are averaged for all roadways wit hin a county and functional class grouping. Using this

percentage data, the total roadway volume for any s egment is divided to auto and truck vehicle type

categories. The transit data and school bus data i s used to further disaggregate trucks, resulting in four

vehicle groups (light-duty, school, transit, and ot her heavy-duty).

From these groups, MOVES default Pennsylvania count y VMT distributions by source type are used to

divide the four groups into each of the MOVES sourc e types. PennDOT hourly distributions for trucks

and total traffic are used to create source type pe rcentage breakdowns for each hour of the day.

Vehicle Type Capacity Analysis Factors : Vehicle type percentages are provided to the cap acity

analysis section of PPSUITE to adjust the speeds in response to trucks. That is, a given number of la rger

trucks take up more roadway space than a given numb er of cars, and this is accounted for in the speed

estimation process by adjusting capacity using info rmation from the Highway Capacity Manual

.



# Vehicle Fleet and Population Data

The information on the vehicle fleet including the number and age of vehicles has a significant impact on

forecasted start and evaporative emissions within M OVES. The MOVES Model requires the population

of vehicles by the thirteen source type categories. Pennsylvania county vehicle registration data is used to

estimate vehicle population for light-duty vehicles and school buses. The data is split to source typ es

using MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania county popula tion data. For transit buses, data from PennDOT

and the National Transit Database (NTD) is used to estimate county transit bus totals. Other heavy-du ty

vehicle population values are based on VMT for each source type using the vehicle mix and pattern data

discussed previously. The PPSUITE software automat ically applies default MOVES2010a ratios of VMT

and source type population (e.g. the number of mile s per vehicle by source type) to the local VMT

estimates to produce vehicle population.

Vehicle population is forecast based on projected h ousehold and population growth from Woods and

Poole Inc. for each Pennsylvania county. The growt h rate methodology includes:

• Choosing the highest growth rate between population and households.

• Limiting growth as to not exceed the VMT growth ass umptions.

Vehicle Age: Vehicle age distributions are input to MOVES for e ach county by the thirteen source types.

The distributions reflect the percentage of vehicle s in the fleet up to 31 years old. The most recent

available registration download from PennDOT’s Bure au of Motor Vehicles Registration Database has

been used for the inventory. Due to insufficient d ata, only information for light-duty vehicles are u sed as

local inputs; and, heavy-duty vehicles use the inte rnal MOVES2010a national defaults. The registratio n

data download is based on MOBILE6.2 vehicle categor ies. As a result, the data was converted to source

types using the EPA convertor spreadsheets provided with the MOVES2010a emission model.

# Appendix C-1 11



# Environmental, Fuel and Technology Assumptions

Information on environmental, fuel, vehicle technol ogy and other control strategy assumptions were

determined based on a review of MOVES2010a default information by the PaDEP.

Fuel Parameters: The same vehicle will produce different emissions using a different type of gasoline.

Fuel control strategies can be powerful emission re duction mechanisms. The MOVES2010a default fuel

formulation and fuel supply data were reviewed and updated based on available local volumetric fuel

property information. The gasohol market penetrati on and RVP values were updated for all the counties

. MOVES2010a default data was used for the rest of th e parameters.

Refueling Emissions : MOVES also allows users to calculate refueling em issions, the emissions created

when vehicles are refueled at service stations. Pe nnsylvania includes refueling emissions in its area

source inventory and not in its highway vehicle inv entory. Refueling emissions are not included in th e

highway emissions inventory.

Vehicle Emission Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) Param eters: MOVES allows users to vary inputs

depending on the I/M program in place for the area. The inputs include:

• Program start year.

• Stringency level.

• First and last model years subject to the program.

• Waiver rates.

• Compliance rates.

• Program type (test-only, test-and-repair, etc.) and effectiveness.

• Frequency of inspection (annual, biennial).

• Vehicle type coverage.

• Test type (idle, loaded, etc.)

The MOVES2010a default Pennsylvania assumptions wer e reviewed and modifications were made per

actual program parameters.

Environmental Variables: Evaporative emissions are influenced significantly by the temperatures of the

surrounding air. Hourly temperatures have been com piled for each county based on information from

WeatherBank, Inc. to specify temperatures from nine airports within the state. Ozone analysis

temperature and humidity values were determined usi ng the procedures documented in EPA’s technical

guidance. Minimum and maximum temperatures for eac h month were converted to hourly temperatures

using EPA convertors supplied with the MOVES2010a m odel.

A summary of the MOVES related inputs used for the inventory and future year estimates are attached

with the submission.

# Appendix C-1 12



# SPEED/EMISSION ESTIMATION PROCEDURE

The previous sections have summarized the input dat a used for computing speeds and emissions for

Pennsylvania. This section explains how PPSUITE an d MOVES uses that input data to produce emission

estimates. Exhibit 6 summarizes PPSUITE’s analysis procedure used for each of the RMS highway

segments in the state.

Producing an emissions inventory with PPSUITE requi res a process of disaggregation and aggregation.

Data is available and used on a very small scale -- individual 1⁄2 mile roadway segments 24 hours of the

day. This data needs to be processed individually to determine the distribution of vehicle hours of t ravel

(VHT) by speed and then aggregated by vehicle class to determine input VMT to the MOVES emission

model.



# Volume/VMT Development

Before speeds can be calculated and MOVES run, volu mes acquired from RMS must be adjusted and

disaggregated. Such adjustments include factoring to future years, seasonal adjustments, and

disaggregating daily volumes to each hour of the da y and to each of the thirteen MOVES source types.

Determine Future Year Volumes : The RMS database contains up-to-date current year volumes.

However, to conduct a future year analysis, these v olumes must be factored to the year being analyzed.

Growth factors have been prepared for each county a nd functional class grouping. These growth factors

are applied to the base year RMS volumes to obtain future year estimates that can be utilized by

PPSUITE.

Example:

A typical freeway link in the RMS database is I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County,

Pennsylvania. This link has an urban/rural code=1 which indicates the link is in a rural area, and a

functional class=1 indicating a rural freeway.

The average annual daily traffic (AADT) from the RM S database for this link in 2008 is 12,077

vehicles/day.

Growth factors have been developed to factor the 20 08 volume to future years. For example, to

factor the 2008 volume to the year 2014, a growth f actor of 1.282 would yield:

2014 volume = 12,077 vehicles/day x 1.282 = 15,48 3 vehicles/day

# Appendix C-1 13 

# Exhibit 6: PPSUITE Speed / Emission Estimation Proc edure

Data From PPSUITE Input Files PPSUITE Ana lysis Process Data from Roadway Source ( RMS)

The Following is Performed For

Each RMS Roadway Segment

Percent Pattern Distributions Expand to 24 ho urly volumes RMS AWDT Adjusted Vol umes

Apply VMT Adjustments Adjust Volumes for Peak Spre ading

(V/C thresholds for spreading)

Vehicle Type Patterns Disaggregate to Vehicle Type RMS Truck Percentages

Transit Data

School Bus Data

Calculate Link & Signal Capacities Roadway Att ributes

(Lanes, FC code, UR code)

Speed/Capacity Lookup Table

Calculate Link Calculate

Midblock Speed Approach Delay

Apply Post Speed VMT Adjustments

Prepare MOVES CDM Files

VHT by Annual RoadType SourceType Hourly Ramp

Speed Bin VMT Fractio ns Population Fractions Fraction s

Per VMT

<Optional>



# Off-line File Preparation

Vehicle Age

Distribution Run MOVES Importe r

to convert county input data

Hourly into MYSQL data for mat

Temps/Humidity

I/M

Parameters

Fuel Run MOVES

Parameters

# Appendix C-1 14



# Seasonal Adjustments : PPSUITE takes the input daily volumes from RMS (w hich represents annual

average daily traffic (AADT)) and seasonally adjust s the volumes to an average weekday in July. This

adjustment utilizes factors developed for each func tional class and urban/rural code. VMT can then be

calculated for each link using the adjusted weekday volumes.

Example:

Again, assume the rural freeway link: I-80 segment 2500 in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania. The

AADT for this link in 2008 is 12,077 vehicles/day.

Seasonal factors have been developed for urban/rura l code and functional class combinations. For

an urban/rural code=1 and a functional class=1, the factor to convert from AADT to an average

weekday in July is = 1.15.

Average Weekday July Volume = 12,077 x 1.15 = 13,88 9 vehicles/day.

Total VMT (daily) for this link is calculated as vo lume x distance. The distance of this link as

obtained from RMS is 0.296 miles.

2008 VMT = 13,889 vehicles/day x 0.296 miles = 4,11 1 vehicle-miles / day.



# Disaggregation to 24 Hours : After seasonally adjusting the link volume, the v olume is split to each hour

of the day. This allows for more accurate speed ca lculations (effects of congested hours) and allows

PPSUITE to prepare the hourly VMT and speeds for in put to the MOVES model.

Example:

To support speed calculations and emission estimate s by time of day, the July weekday volume is

disaggregated to 24 hourly volumes. Temporal patte rns were previously developed from

PennDOT count data and input to PPSUITE. For the I -80 rural freeway link with morning peak

volumes similar to evening peak hours (neutral), th e following temporal pattern is applied:

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101357911131517192123



## Hour of DayPercent of Daily



# Using the I-80 segment, typical hourly volumes whic h result include:

8-9 a.m. 6.0% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 833 vehicles/hour (vph)

12-1 p.m. 5.0% x (4,111 vehicle .miles/ 0.296mi. ) = 694 vph

5-6 p.m. 6.3% x (4,111 vehicle miles/ 0.296mi.) = 875 vph

# Appendix C-1 15



# After dividing the daily volumes to each hour of th e day, PPSUITE identifies hours that are unreasonab ly

congested. For those hours, PPSUITE then spreads a portion of the volume to other hours within the

same peak period, thereby approximating the “peak s preading” that normally occurs in such over-capacit y

conditions.

Disaggregation to Vehicle Type : EPA requires VMT estimates to be prepared by sou rce type, reflecting

specific local characteristics. As a result, for P ennsylvania’s emission inventory runs, the hourly v olumes

are disaggregated to the thirteen MOVES source type s based on count data assembled by PennDOT in

combination with MOVES defaults.

Example:

Disaggregation of the total I-80 VMT to the various source types would include the following:

Total Volume 8-9 am = 833 vph

Source Type Volume 8-9 am:

Motorcycle 11 0.5% 4 vph

Passenger Car 21 54.7% 456 vph

Passenger Truck 31 27.9% 232 vph

Light Commercial Truck 32 9.3% 78 vph

Intercity Bus 41 0.1% 1 vph

Transit Bus 42 0.1% 1 vph

School bus 43 0.1% 1 vph

Refuse Truck 51 0.0% 0 vph

Single Unit Short-haul Truck 52 2.2% 19 vph

Single Unit Long-haul Truck 53 0.3% 2 vph

Motor Home 54 0.1% 1 vph

Combination Short-haul Truck 61 1.9% 16 vph

Combination Long-haul Truck 62 2.6% 22 vph



# Speed/Delay Determination

EPA recognizes that the estimation of vehicle speed s is a difficult and complex process. Because

emissions are so sensitive to speeds, it recommends special attention be given to developing reasonabl e

and consistent speed estimates; it also recommends that VMT be disaggregated into subsets that have

roughly equal speed, with separate emission factors for each subset. At a minimum, speeds should be

estimated separately by road type.

The computational framework used for this analysis meets and exceeds that recommendation. Speeds are

individually calculated for each roadway segment an d hour and include the delays encountered at signal s.

Rather than accumulating the roadway segments into a particular road type and calculating an average

speed, each individual link hourly speed is represe nted in the MOVES vehicle hours of travel (VHT) by

speed bin file. This MOVES input file allows the s pecification of a distribution of hourly speeds.

For example, if 5% of a county’s arterial VHT opera tes at 5 mph during the AM peak hour and the

remaining 95% operates at 65 mph, this can be repre sented in the MOVES speed input file. For the

model runs, distributions of speeds are input to MO VES by road type and source type by each hour of th e

day; VMT and VHT is accumulated by the same groupin gs for the application of the emission factors to

produce resulting emission totals.

# Appendix C-1 16



# To calculate speeds, PPSUITE first obtains initial capacities (how much volume the roadway can serve

before heavy congestion) and free-flow speeds (spee ds assuming no congestion) from the speed/capacity

lookup data. As described in previous sections, th is data contains default roadway information indexe d

by the urban/rural code and functional class. For areas with known characteristics, values can be dir ectly

coded to the RMS database and the speed/capacity da ta can be overridden. However, for most areas

where known information is not available, the speed /capacity lookups provide valuable default

information regarding speeds, capacities, signal ch aracteristics, and other capacity adjustment inform ation

used for calculating congested delays and speeds. An effort has been made to enhance the RMS data wit h

traffic signal locations using other GIS signal dat a available from PennDOT’s Bureau of Highway Safety

and Traffic Engineering.

Example:

The speed/capacity lookup table is used to obtain i mportant data used for link speed calculations.

For the I-80 link with an urban/rural code = 1 (rur al) and a functional class = 1 (freeway), the

lookup table provides information including the fol lowing:

freeflow speed = 65 mph

capacity = 1800 vph per lane

number of signals = 0 (per RMS linkage to GIS traf fic signal locations)

This information is used along with the physical ch aracteristics of the roadway to calculate the

delay (including congestion) to travel this link du ring each hour of the day:

For example: The I-80 link is calculated to have a travel time, including delay of 17.76 seconds

for the 8-9am hour.

Total travel time, in vehicle hours, for the 8-9am hour is calculated as:

VHT (8-9am) = 17.76 seconds x 833vph / 3600 sec/h r = 4.12 vehicle hours.



# The result of this process is an estimated average travel time for each hour of the day for each highw ay

segment. The average time can be multiplied by the volume to produce vehicle hours of travel (VHT).



# HPMS and VMT Adjustments

Volumes must also be adjusted to account for differ ences with the HPMS VMT totals, as described

previously. VMT adjustment factors are provided as input to PPSUITE, and are applied to each of the

roadway segment volumes. These factors were develo ped from the latest HPMS download (conducted

triennially); however, they are also applied to any future year runs. The VMT added or subtracted to the

RMS database assumes the speeds calculated using th e original volumes for each roadway segment for

each hour of the day.

# Appendix C-1 17 Example:

Using the Luzerne County I-80 rural freeway link ex ample, the daily assigned volume is adjusted

to account for reconciliation with the HPMS VMT. R MS VMT (in AADT) for Luzerne County

rural freeways totals 962,559 vehicle miles in 2008 . HPMS VMT (in AADT) as supplied by

PennDOT and reported to FHWA totals to 990,088 vehi cle miles for the rural freeways. A factor

is developed by dividing the HPMS VMT by the RMS VM T:

HPMS adjustment factor for Luzerne County rural fre eways = 990,088 / 962,559 = 1.029.

This factor is held constant in all future years. As an example, this adjustment is made to the

I-80 freeway link VMT for the 8-9am hour after spee d calculations are made, and produces the

final July weekday VMT for this hour used for Ozone runs.

I-80 Link VMT (8-9am) = 833vph x 0.296 miles x 1 .029 = 254 vehicle miles.



# MOVES Emissions Run

After computing speeds and aggregating VMT and VHT, PPSUITE prepares traffic-related inputs needed

to run EPA’s MOVES software, which is used to estim ate emission factors in grams of pollutant per

vehicle mile and to produce total emissions based o n input VMT to the model. The process uses

MOVES2010a, the officially released emissions model that was obtained directly from EPA.

The MOVES inputs prepared by PPSUITE include the fo llowing:

• Vehicle Type VMT.

• Vehicle Population.

• VMT fractions.

• Average speed distributions.

• Road Type Distribution.

• Ramp Fractions.

These files are text formatted files with a *.csv e xtension. The files are provided as inputs within the

MOVES county data importer. In addition the remai ning MOVES input data including temperatures,

I/M programs, fuel and vehicle ages are prepared ma nually outside of the PPSUITE process.

The MOVES county importer is run in batch mode. Th is program converts all data files into the MYSQL

formats used by the MOVES model. At that point a M OVES run specification file (*.mrs) is created

which specifies options and key data locations for the run. MOVES is then executed in batch mode.

MOVES can be executed using either the inventory or rate-based approaches. For this highway

emissions inventory, MOVES is applied using the inventory-based approach. Under this method, actual

VMT and population are provided as inputs to the mo del; MOVES is responsible for producing the total

emissions for the region. Under the rate-based app roach, MOVES would produce emission factors, after

which PPSUITE would apply the emission factors to t he link data and calculate total regional emissions

.

# Appendix C-1 18



# RESOURCES

MOVES model

Modeling Page within EPA’s Office of Mobile Sources Website

(http://www.epa.gov/omswww/models.htm) contains a d ownloadable model, MOVES users guide and

other information.

Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator, User Guide for MO VES2010a, EPA-420-B-10-036, August 2010.

Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emis sion Inventory Preparation in State

Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, and Office

of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-B-10-023 , April 2010.

Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for SIP Dev elopment, Transportation Conformity

, and Other

Purposes , US EPA Office of Air and Radiation, EPA-420-B-09- 046, December 2009.

Traffic Engineering

Highway Capacity Manual, Transportation Research Board, presents current knowledge and techniques

for analyzing the transportation system.

Traffic Data Collection and Factor Development Repo rt, 2008 Data, Pennsylvania Department of

Transportation, Bureau of Planning and Research.

# Appendix C-1 19



# Highway Vehicle Inventory Glossary

AADT: Average Annual Daily Traffic, average of ALL days

.

AWDT: Average Weekday Daily Traffic.

Basic emission rates: MOBILE emission rates based on the applicable Fed eral emission standards and

the emission control technologies characterizing th e fleet in various model years.

Emission rate or factor: Expresses the amount of pollution emitted per uni t of activity. For highway

vehicles, usually in grams of pollutant emitted per mile driven.

FC: Functional code, applied in data management to roa d segments to identify their type (freeway, local,

etc.).

Fuel volatility: The ability of fuel components to evaporate, thus ente ring the atmosphere as pollution.

Fuel volatility is usually measured as Reid Vapor P ressure (RVP) in pounds per square inch. The lower

the RVP, the less volatile the fuel.

Growth factor: Factor used to convert volumes to future years.

HPMS: Highway Performance Monitoring System, PENNDOT’s official source of highway information

and a subset of RMS.

I/M: Vehicle emissions inspection/maintenance programs ensure that vehicle emission controls are in

good working order throughout the life of the vehic le. The programs require vehicles to be tested for

emissions. Most vehicles that do not pass must be repaired.

MOBILE: The model EPA has developed and which Pennsylvania uses to estimate emissions from

highway vehicles.

MOVES: The latest model EPA has developed with which Penns ylvania uses to estimate emissions from

highway vehicles.

Pattern data: Extrapolations of traffic patterns (such as how tra ffic volume on road segment types varies

by time of day, or what kinds of vehicles tend to u se a road segment type) from segments with observed

data to similar segments.

PPSUITE: Post-Processor for Air Quality, a set of programs that estimate speeds and processes MOBILE

emission rates.

RMS: Roadway Management System, a database maintained by PENNDOT from traffic counts and field

visits.

Segment (also referred to as link): Division of roadway in the PENNDOT Roadway Manageme nt

System. Usually represents 0.5 mile segments of ro adway.

UR: Urban/rural code, applied in data management to id entify whether a road segment is urban, small

urban or rural.

# Appendix C-1 20



# VHT: Vehicle hours traveled

.

VMT: Vehicle miles traveled. In modeling terms, it i s the simulated traffic volumes times link length.

Vehicle Type : One of eight types, distinguished primarily by f uel type and/or weight, used in MOBILE

modeling.

Source Type : One of thirteen types, distinguished primarily b y weight, used in MOVES modeling.

Road Type: Functional code, applied in data management to roa d segments to identify their type

(rural/urban highways, rural/urban arterials, etc.)

County Data Manager: User interface developed to simplify importing spec ific local data for a single

county or a user-defined custom domain without requ iring direct interaction with the underlying MySQL

database.

# A P P E N D I X C

- 2

A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r y T a b l e s

A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 1

2 0 0 4 J u l y W e e k d a y E m i s s i o n s

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y R o a d T

y p e

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y S o u r

c e T y p e

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y P r o c e s s



# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 2

2 0 0 9 J u l y W e e k d a y E m i s s i o n s

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y R o a d T

y p e

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y S o u r

c e T y p e

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y P r o c e s s



# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 3

2 0 1 8 J u l y W e e k d a y E m i s s i o n s

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y R o a d T

y p e

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y S o u r

c e T y p e

E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y P r o c e s s

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 1

2 0 0 4 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L e h i g h 8

, 6 2 4

, 6 4 8 4 0

. 6 1 1

. 1 9 2 9

. 2 0

N o r t h a m p t o n 5

, 9 7 0

, 5 8 6 3 8

. 9 9

. 1 8 2 0

. 6 3

L e h i g h V a l l e y M P O 1 4

, 5 9 5

, 2 3 4

- 2 0

. 3 7 4 9

. 8 3

C a r b o n 2

, 3 7 3

, 5 9 4 4 4

. 3 2

. 8 9 9

. 5 5

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 2

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 1

2 0 0 4 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y R o a d T

y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L e h i g h O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 6

. 2 9 4

. 2 7

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 4 3 1

, 4 2 1 6 4

. 9 0

. 2 1 2

. 2 4

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 7 6 2

, 9 2 0 3 9

. 6 0

. 4 2 1

. 9 1

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 3

, 0 0 9

, 0 0 8 5 6

. 7 1

. 4 9 1 0

. 4 7

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 4

, 4 2 1

, 2 9 8 3 3

. 1 2

. 7 9 1 0

. 3 1

T o t a l 8

, 6 2 4

, 6 4 8 4 0

. 6 1 1

. 1 9 2 9

. 2 0

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

N o r t h a m p t o n O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 5

. 6 9 3

. 7 2

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 0 0

. 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1

, 0 6 6

, 2 8 0 4 3

. 2 0

. 5 5 2

. 6 3

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1

, 7 4 0

, 5 6 2 5 7

. 5 0

. 8 7 6

. 4 5

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 3

, 1 6 3

, 7 4 4 3 2

. 1 2

. 0 8 7

. 8 2

T o t a l 5

, 9 7 0

, 5 8 6 3

8

. 9 9

. 1 8 2 0

. 6 3

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

C a r b o n O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 1

. 5 3 1

. 1 1

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 9 4 7

, 4 7 9 6 4

. 8 0

. 4 8 4

. 6 8

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 8 3 1

, 4 3 1 3 5

. 5 0

. 5 3 2

. 1 3

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1 8 6

, 3 3 5 5 9

. 8 0

. 0 9 0

. 6 4

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 4 0 8

, 3 4 8 3 2

. 7 0

. 2 6 0

. 9 8

T o t a l 2

, 3 7 3

, 5 9 4 4 4

. 3 2

. 8 9 9

. 5

5

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 3

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 1

2 0 0 4 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r

e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y S o u r

c e T y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L e h i g h M o t o r c y c l e 4 3

, 1 6 1 0

. 5 % 0

. 2 4 2

. 1 % 0

. 0 6 0

. 2 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 4

, 5 8 6

, 6 6 7 5 3

. 2 % 4

. 0 8 3 6

. 5 % 5

. 8 0 1 9

. 9 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 2

, 3 3 9

, 4 3 5 2 7

. 1 % 4

. 2 7 3 8

. 1 % 6

. 0 8 2 0

. 8 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 7 7 9

, 5 3 2 9

. 0 % 1

. 4 2 1 2

. 7 % 2

. 3 5 8

. 0 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 1 2

, 4 4 3 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 % 0

. 2 9 1

. 0 %

T r a n s i t B u s 2

, 6 5 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 5 0

. 2 %

S c h o o l B u s 1 1

, 9 9 4 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 2 % 0

. 1 3 0

. 4 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 6

, 2 7 5 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 % 0

. 1 1 0

. 4 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 2 6 0

, 3 5 0 3

. 0 % 0

. 4 1 3

. 7 % 1

. 9 9 6

. 8 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 3 4

, 2 2 3 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 4 0

. 3 % 0

. 2 2 0

. 8 %

M o t o r H o m e 1 4

, 9 5 4 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 4 0

. 4 % 0

. 1 1 0

. 4 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 2 2 4

, 0 3 6 2

. 6 % 0

. 1 8 1

. 6 % 4

. 7 5 1 6

. 3 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 3 0 8

, 9 2 7 3

. 6 % 0

. 4 8 4

. 3 % 7

. 2 7 2 4

. 9 %

T o t a l 8

, 6 2 4

, 6 4 8 1 0 0

. 0 % 1 1

. 1 9 1 0 0

. 0 % 2 9

. 2 0 1 0 0

. 0 %

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. N o r t h a m p t o n M o t o r c y c l e 3 0

, 0 6 5 0

. 5 % 0

. 1 9 2

. 1 % 0

. 0 4 0

. 2 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 3

, 1 9 5

, 0 3 5 5 3

. 5 % 3

. 4 1 3 7

. 2 % 4

. 3 6 2 1

. 1 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 1

, 6 2 9

, 6 2 8 2 7

. 3 % 3

. 5 8 3 9

. 0 % 4

. 5 7 2 2

. 1 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 5 4 3

, 0 1 8 9

. 1 % 1

. 1 9 1 2

. 9 % 1

. 7 7 8

. 6 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 8

, 4 1 9 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 % 0

. 1 9 0

. 9 %

T r a n s i t B u s 1

, 1 3 3 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 1 %

S c h o o l B u s 1

, 1 3 6 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 4

, 1 6 1 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 8 0

. 4 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 1 7 2

, 4 3 3 2

. 9 % 0

. 2 8 3

. 1 % 1

. 3 3 6

. 5 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 2 2

, 6 5 4 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 3 % 0

. 1 5 0

. 7 %

M o t o r H o m e 9

, 9 1 3 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 3 % 0

. 0 7 0

. 3 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 1 4 8

, 3 7 3 2

. 5 % 0

. 1 2 1

. 4 % 3

. 1 7 1 5

. 3 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 2 0 4

, 6 1 8 3

. 4 % 0

. 3 3 3

. 6 % 4

. 8 8 2 3

. 6 %

T o t a l 5

, 9 7 0

, 5 8 6 1 0 0

. 0 % 9

. 1 8 1 0 0

. 0 % 2 0

. 6 3 1 0 0

. 0 %

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. C a r b o n M o t o r c y c l e 1 1

, 4 1 1 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 5 1

. 9 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 2 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 1

, 2 1 2

, 6 7 1 5 1

. 1 % 1

. 0 3 3 5

. 6 % 1

. 6 2 1 7

. 0 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 6 1 8

, 4 2 0 2 6

. 1 % 1

. 0 5 3 6

. 4 % 1

. 6 6 1 7

. 4 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 2 0 6

, 2 0 5 8

. 7 % 0

. 3 5 1 2

. 0 % 0

. 6 2 6

. 5 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 3

, 8 9 5 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 9 1

. 0 %

T r a n s i t B u s 2 0 3 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

S c h o o l B u s 1

, 0 9 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 2

, 3 8 7 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 5 0

. 5 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 9 8

, 0 5 2 4

. 1 % 0

. 1 5 5

. 0 % 0

. 7 5 7

. 8 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 1 2

, 8 8 2 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 8 0

. 9 %

M o t o r H o m e 5

, 6 3 0 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 4 0

. 4 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 8 4

, 4 8 5 3

. 6 % 0

. 0 6 2

. 2 % 1

. 8 4 1 9

. 3 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 1 1 6

, 2 6 3 4

. 9 % 0

. 1 6 5

. 7 % 2

. 7 7 2 9

. 0 %

T o t a l 2

, 3 7 3

, 5 9 4 1 0 0

. 0 % 2

. 8 9 1 0 0

. 0 % 9

. 5 5 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e

C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 4

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 1

2 0 0 4 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r

e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y P r o c e s s

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L e h i g h R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 3

. 8 3 3 4

. 3 % 2 4

. 9 3 8 5

. 4 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 4

. 0 0 3 5

. 8 % 3

. 4 6 1 1

. 8 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 5 8 5

. 2 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 2

. 1 2 1 9

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 3 1 2

. 7 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 5 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 5 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 2 4 2

. 1 % 0

. 8 1 2

. 8 %

T o t a l 1 1

. 1 9 1 0 0

. 0 % 2 9

. 2 0 1 0 0

. 0 %

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. N o r t h a m p t o n R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 2

. 7 1 2 9

. 5 % 1 6

. 9 0 8 1

. 9 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 3

. 6 5 3 9

. 7 % 3

. 1 5 1 5

. 3 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 5 3 5

. 7 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 1

. 7 7 1 9

. 3 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 2 6 2

. 9 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 4 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 5 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 1 7 1

. 9 % 0

. 5 7 2

. 8 %

T o t a l 9

. 1 8 1 0 0

. 0 % 2 0

. 6 3 1 0 0

. 0 %

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. C a r b o n R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 1

. 0 8 3 7

. 5 % 8

. 4 4 8 8

. 3 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 9 8 3 4

. 1 % 0

. 8 3 8

. 7 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 1 2 4

. 3 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 0

. 5 1 1 7

. 7 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 0 7 2

. 6 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 2 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 1 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 8 2

. 8 % 0

. 2 8 2

. 9 %

T o t a l 2

. 8 9 1 0 0

. 0 % 9

. 5 5 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y P r o c e s s C o u n t y P r o c e s s

C o u n t y P r o c e s s

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 5

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 2

2 0 0 9 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L e h i g h 8

, 8 5 2

, 1 1 1 3 9

. 7 9

. 5 0 2 1

. 7 3

N o r t h a m p t o n 6

, 1 0 4

, 5 1 0 3 9

. 0 7

. 9 7 1 5

. 7 5

L e h i g h V a l l e y M P O 1 4

, 9 5 6

, 6 2 1

- 1 7

. 4 7 3 7

. 4 8

C a r b o n 2

, 3 0 9

, 6 9 2 4 3

. 6 2

. 3 6 6

. 6 0

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 6

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 2

2 0 0 9 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y R o a d T

y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L e h i g h O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 6

. 1 0 4

. 0 0

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 2 9 7

, 4 0 3 6 4

. 9 0

. 1 0 1

. 0 2

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 8 6 2

, 4 4 5 3 9

. 2 0

. 3 2 1

. 5 4

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 3

, 0 0 2

, 3 8 3 5 6

. 4 1

. 0 1 7

. 2 1

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 4

, 6 8 9

, 8 8 0 3 2

. 8 1

. 9 8 7

. 9 6

T o t a l 8

, 8 5 2

, 1 1 1 3 9

. 7 9

. 5 0 2 1

. 7

3

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

N o r t h a m p t o n O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 5

. 5 9 3

. 5 3

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 0 0

. 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1

, 1 0 3

, 6 3 7 4 3

. 2 0

. 3 8 1

. 9 4

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1

, 8 1 7

, 5 7 7 5 7

. 4 0

. 6 1 4

. 5 7

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 3

, 1 8 3

, 2 9 7 3 2

. 1 1

. 4 0 5

. 7 0

T o t a l 6

, 1 0 4

, 5 1 0 3 9

. 0 7

. 9 7 1 5

. 7 5

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

C a r b o n O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 1

. 4 9 1

. 0 5

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 8 8 6

, 7 0 9 6 4

. 8 0

. 3 0 2

. 8 9

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 8 4 4

, 1 2 6 3 5

. 4 0

. 3 5 1

. 5 5

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1 6 5

, 6 2 3 5 9

. 8 0

. 0 5 0

. 3 9

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 4 1 3

, 2 3 3 3 2

. 5 0

. 1 7 0

. 7 2

T o t a l 2

, 3 0 9

, 6 9 2 4 3

. 6 2

. 3 6 6

. 6 0

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 7

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 2

2 0 0 9 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r

e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y S o u r

c e T y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L e h i g h M o t o r c y c l e 4 4

, 4 7 5 0

. 5 % 0

. 2 8 2

. 9 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 2 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 4

, 7 2 6

, 3 1 9 5 3

. 4 % 2

. 6 2 2 7

. 6 % 3

. 6 6 1 6

. 9 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 2

, 4 0 2

, 2 2 8 2 7

. 1 % 4

. 3 5 4 5

. 8 % 6

. 1 4 2 8

. 2 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 8 1 1

, 7 0 3 9

. 2 % 1

. 4 0 1 4

. 7 % 2

. 2 9 1 0

. 5 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 1 3

, 7 4 7 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 % 0

. 2 3 1

. 1 %

T r a n s i t B u s 2

, 3 3 2 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 1 %

S c h o o l B u s 1 0

, 8 5 5 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 9 0

. 4 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 6

, 9 0 7 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 8 0

. 4 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 2 5 6

, 3 3 8 2

. 9 % 0

. 2 9 3

. 0 % 1

. 3 7 6

. 3 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 3 4

, 2 3 3 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 3 % 0

. 1 6 0

. 7 %

M o t o r H o m e 1 5

, 2 3 1 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 9 0

. 4 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 2 2 3

, 6 0 5 2

. 5 % 0

. 1 2 1

. 3 % 2

. 8 4 1 3

. 1 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 3 0 4

, 1 3 7 3

. 4 % 0

. 3 6 3

. 7 % 4

. 7 3 2 1

. 8 %

T o t a l 8

, 8 5 2

, 1 1 1 1 0 0

. 0 % 9

. 5 0 1 0 0

. 0 % 2 1

. 7 3 1 0 0

. 0 %

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. N o r t h a m p t o n M o t o r c y c l e 3 0

, 7 1 0 0

. 5 % 0

. 2 4 3

. 0 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 1 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 3

, 2 6 3

, 5 3 1 5 3

. 5 % 2

. 2 4 2 8

. 1 % 2

. 7 6 1 7

. 5 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 1

, 6 5 8

, 7 4 1 2 7

. 2 % 3

. 7 0 4 6

. 5 % 4

. 6 3 2 9

. 4 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 5 6 0

, 4 8 3 9

. 2 % 1

. 1 8 1 4

. 9 % 1

. 7 2 1 0

. 9 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 9

, 0 9 9 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 % 0

. 1 5 1

. 0 %

T r a n s i t B u s 9 5 8 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 %

S c h o o l B u s 9 6 7 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 4

, 7 3 7 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 5 0

. 3 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 1 7 6

, 9 4 8 2

. 9 % 0

. 2 0 2

. 5 % 0

. 9 5 6

. 0 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 2 3

, 6 1 7 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 2 % 0

. 1 1 0

. 7 %

M o t o r H o m e 1 0

, 5 0 9 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 3 % 0

. 0 6 0

. 4 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 1 5 4

, 3 6 8 2

. 5 % 0

. 0 9 1

. 1 % 1

. 9 7 1 2

. 5 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 2 0 9

, 8 4 3 3

. 4 % 0

. 2 6 3

. 2 % 3

. 3 0 2 1

. 0 %

T o t a l 6

, 1 0 4

, 5 1 0 1 0 0

. 0 % 7

. 9 7 1 0 0

. 0 % 1 5

. 7 5 1 0 0

. 0 %

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. C a r b o n M o t o r c y c l e 1 1

, 1 4 7 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 6 2

. 5 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 1

, 1 8 4

, 5 7 0 5 1

. 3 % 0

. 6 6 2 8

. 1 % 1

. 0 1 1 5

. 3 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 6 0 2

, 1 8 0 2 6

. 1 % 1

. 0 3 4 3

. 6 % 1

. 5 7 2 3

. 9 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 2 0 3

, 3 3 7 8

. 8 % 0

. 3 3 1 3

. 9 % 0

. 5 7 8

. 7 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 3

, 8 5 3 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 7 1

. 0 %

T r a n s i t B u s 1 6 3 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

S c h o o l B u s 9 1 5 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 2

, 5 0 7 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 4 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 9 2

, 5 8 1 4

. 0 % 0

. 1 0 4

. 1 % 0

. 4 9 7

. 4 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 1 2

, 3 4 9 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 6 0

. 9 %

M o t o r H o m e 5

, 4 9 7 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 5 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 8 0

, 7 7 8 3

. 5 % 0

. 0 4 1

. 7 % 1

. 0 4 1 5

. 8 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 1 0 9

, 8 1 5 4

. 8 % 0

. 1 2 4

. 9 % 1

. 7 0 2 5

. 8 %

T o t a l 2

, 3 0 9

, 6 9 2 1 0 0

. 0 % 2

. 3 6 1 0 0

. 0 % 6

. 6 0 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e

C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 8

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 2

2 0 0 9 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r

e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y P r o c e s s

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L e h i g h R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 2

. 5 9 2 7

. 3 % 1 7

. 7 2 8 1

. 6 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 3

. 5 4 3 7

. 3 % 3

. 2 2 1 4

. 8 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 7 5 7

. 9 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 1

. 8 8 1 9

. 8 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 4 6 4

. 9 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 4 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 5 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 1 9 2

. 0 % 0

. 7 9 3

. 6 %

T o t a l 9

. 5 0 1 0 0

. 0 % 2 1

. 7 3 1 0 0

. 0 %

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. N o r t h a m p t o n R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 1

. 8 1 2 2

. 7 % 1 2

. 2 2 7 7

. 6 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 3

. 2 5 4 0

. 8 % 2

. 9 6 1 8

. 8 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 6 9 8

. 7 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 1

. 6 1 2 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 4 0 5

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 3 0

. 3 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 4 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 1 4 1

. 7 % 0

. 5 7 3

. 6 %

T o t a l 7

. 9 7 1 0 0

. 0 % 1 5

. 7 5 1 0 0

. 0 %

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. C a r b o n R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 6 8 2 9

. 0 % 5

. 5 5 8 4

. 1 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 9 1 3 8

. 5 % 0

. 7 9 1 2

. 0 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 1 6 6

. 6 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 0

. 4 3 1 8

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 1 0 4

. 4 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 1 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 1 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 6 2

. 5 % 0

. 2 6 3

. 9 %

T o t a l 2

. 3 6 1 0 0

. 0 % 6

. 6 0 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y P r o c e s s

C o u n t y P r o c e s s

C o u n t y P r o c e s s

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 9

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 3

2 0 1 8 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L e h i g h 1 0

, 6 5 1

, 4 5 2 3 5

. 5 5

. 1 4 1 0

. 7 9

N o r t h a m p t o n 7

, 6 7 1

, 5 5 0 3 7

. 0 4

. 3 9 7

. 9 2

L e h i g h V a l l e y M P O 1 8

, 3 2 3

, 0 0 2

- 9

. 5 3 1 8

. 7 1

C a r b o n 2

, 9 3 7

, 7 5 9 4 3

. 3 1

. 3 0 3

. 2 4

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 1 0

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 3

2 0 1 8 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r

e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y R o a d T

y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

L e h i g h O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 3

. 6 9 2

. 9 6

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 3 8 3

, 6 4 7 6 4

. 4 0

. 0 4 0

. 4 4

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 9 6 4

, 3 6 9 3 9

. 0 0

. 1 2 0

. 6 0

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 3

, 7 5 2

, 6 9 8 4 1

. 9 0

. 4 9 3

. 3 5

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 5

, 5 5 0

, 7 3 8 3 0

. 9 0

. 8 0 3

. 4 3

T o t a l 1 0

, 6 5 1

, 4 5 2 3

5

. 5 5

. 1 4 1 0

. 7

9

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

N o r t h a m p t o n O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 3

. 3 7 2

. 5 0

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 0 0

. 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1

, 3 9 6

, 6 8 6 4 2

. 6 0

. 1 6 0

. 8 6

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 2

, 2 7 1

, 8 2 8 5 4

. 5 0

. 2 7 1

. 9 7

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 4

, 0 0 3

, 0 3 6 3 0

. 1 0

. 6 0 2

. 5 9

T o t a l 7

, 6 7 1

, 5 5 0 3 7

. 0 4

. 3 9 7

. 9 2

C o u n t y R o a d T y p e V M T S p e e d ( m p h ) V O C N O X

C a r b o n O f f

- N e t w o r k

- - 0

. 9 2 0

. 7 9

R u r a l R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1

, 1 4 3

, 7 8 8 6 4

. 8 0

. 1 3 1

. 2 7

R u r a l U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 1

, 0 6 7

, 2 4 8 3 5

. 2 0

. 1 5 0

. 6 9

U r b a n R e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 2 0 7

, 0 4 2 5 9

. 8 0

. 0 2 0

. 1 7

U r b a n U n r e s t r i c t e d A c c e s s 5 1 9

, 6 8 1 3 1

. 6 0

. 0 7 0

. 3 2

T o t a l 2

, 9 3 7

, 7 5 9 4 3

. 3 1

. 3 0 3

. 2 4

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 1 1

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 3

2 0 1 8 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r

e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y S o u r

c e T y p e

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L e h i g h M o t o r c y c l e 5 3

, 4 2 2 0

. 5 % 0

. 3 1 6

. 1 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 3 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 5

, 6 7 7

, 1 2 7 5 3

. 3 % 1

. 2 6 2 4

. 5 % 1

. 3 8 1 2

. 8 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 2

, 8 8 5

, 5 1 5 2 7

. 1 % 2

. 3 2 4 5

. 1 % 3

. 2 9 3 0

. 5 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 9 7 4

, 9 7 3 9

. 2 % 0

. 7 7 1 4

. 9 % 1

. 3 8 1 2

. 8 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 1 5

, 8 0 5 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 % 0

. 1 2 1

. 1 %

T r a n s i t B u s 3

, 0 0 7 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 2 %

S c h o o l B u s 1 4

, 0 2 9 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 6 0

. 6 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 9

, 0 6 4 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 3 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 3 1 2

, 5 4 1 2

. 9 % 0

. 1 5 3

. 0 % 0

. 7 4 6

. 9 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 4 1

, 7 0 7 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 4 % 0

. 1 0 0

. 9 %

M o t o r H o m e 1 9

, 0 2 0 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 7 0

. 6 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 2 7 4

, 9 5 4 2

. 6 % 0

. 0 4 0

. 9 % 1

. 0 0 9

. 3 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 3 7 0

, 2 8 8 3

. 5 % 0

. 2 3 4

. 4 % 2

. 5 7 2 3

. 8 %

T o t a l 1 0

, 6 5 1

, 4 5 2 1 0 0

. 0 % 5

. 1 4 1 0 0

. 0 % 1 0

. 7 9 1 0 0

. 0 %

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. N o r t h a m p t o n M o t o r c y c l e 3 8

, 6 0 2 0

. 5 % 0

. 2 7 6

. 2 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 3 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 4

, 1 0 2

, 2 3 4 5 3

. 5 % 1

. 1 0 2 5

. 1 % 1

. 0 7 1 3

. 5 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 2

, 0 8 5

, 0 4 2 2 7

. 2 % 2

. 0 2 4 6

. 0 % 2

. 5 3 3 2

. 0 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 7 0 4

, 5 0 7 9

. 2 % 0

. 6 6 1 5

. 1 % 1

. 0 4 1 3

. 2 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 1 1

, 2 1 7 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 8 1

. 0 %

T r a n s i t B u s 1

, 3 0 1 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 %

S c h o o l B u s 1

, 3 0 5 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 1 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 6

, 4 1 6 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 3 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 2 2 1

, 2 2 9 2

. 9 % 0

. 1 1 2

. 5 % 0

. 5 2 6

. 5 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 2 9

, 5 1 2 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 3 % 0

. 0 7 0

. 9 %

M o t o r H o m e 1 3

, 4 6 7 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 2 0

. 4 % 0

. 0 5 0

. 6 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 1 9 4

, 6 4 3 2

. 5 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 7 % 0

. 7 0 8

. 9 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 2 6 2

, 0 7 4 3

. 4 % 0

. 1 6 3

. 6 % 1

. 8 0 2 2

. 7 %

T o t a l 7

, 6 7 1

, 5 5 0 1 0 0

. 0 % 4

. 3 9 1 0 0

. 0 % 7

. 9 2 1 0 0

. 0 %

V M T V O C N O X

M i l e s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. C a r b o n M o t o r c y c l e 1 4

, 1 6 8 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 7 5

. 1 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 3 %

P a s s e n g e r C a r 1

, 5 0 5

, 6 3 3 5 1

. 3 % 0

. 3 4 2 6

. 6 % 0

. 4 0 1 2

. 5 %

P a s s e n g e r T r u c k 7 6 5

, 4 1 0 2 6

. 1 % 0

. 5 5 4 2

. 8 % 0

. 8 5 2 6

. 1 %

L i g h t C o m m e r c i a l T r u c k 2 5 8

, 4 3 1 8

. 8 % 0

. 1 8 1 3

. 9 % 0

. 3 4 1 0

. 5 %

I n t e r c i t y B u s 4

, 8 4 5 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 4 1

. 1 %

T r a n s i t B u s 2 1 8 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

S c h o o l B u s 1

, 2 3 4 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 2 %

R e f u s e T r u c k 3

, 4 1 7 0

. 1 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 3 %

S i n g l e U n i t S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 1 1 7

, 9 5 5 4

. 0 % 0

. 0 5 3

. 9 % 0

. 2 7 8

. 3 %

S i n g l e U n i t L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 1 5

, 7 4 9 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 4 1

. 1 %

M o t o r H o m e 7

, 1 7 7 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 1 0

. 6 % 0

. 0 3 0

. 8 %

C o m b i n a t i o n S h o r t

- h a u l T r u c k 1 0 3

, 7 4 2 3

. 5 % 0

. 0 1 1

. 1 % 0

. 3 7 1 1

. 5 %

C o m b i n a t i o n L o n g

- h a u l T r u c k 1 3 9

, 7 8 0 4

. 8 % 0

. 0 7 5

. 3 % 0

. 8 9 2 7

. 4 %

T o t a l 2

, 9 3 7

, 7 5 9 1 0 0

. 0 % 1

. 3 0 1 0 0

. 0 % 3

. 2 4 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e

C o u n t y S o u r c e t y p e

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 1 2

# A p p e n d i x C

- 2

- 3

2 0 1 8 A l l e n t o w n

- B e t h l e h e m

- E a s t o n A r

e a E m i s s i o n S u m m a r

y b y P r o c e s s

S u m m e r W

e e k d a y ( T o n s / D a y )

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. L e h i g h R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 1

. 0 3 2 0

. 0 % 7

. 8 3 7 2

. 6 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 2

. 0 8 4 0

. 5 % 1

. 9 4 1 8

. 0 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 4 6 9

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 0

. 7 9 1 5

. 3 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 5 8 1 1

. 3 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 1 0

. 3 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 3 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 1 6 3

. 1 % 1

. 0 2 9

. 4 %

T o t a l 5

. 1 4 1 0 0

. 0 % 1 0

. 7 9 1 0 0

. 0 %

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. N o r t h a m p t o n R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 7 3 1 6

. 5 % 5

. 4 2 6 8

. 5 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 1

. 9 2 4 3

. 6 % 1

. 7 9 2 2

. 6 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 4 3 9

. 7 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 0

. 6 8 1 5

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 5 0 1 1

. 3 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 1 0

. 2 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 3 0

. 6 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 1 1 2

. 5 % 0

. 7 1 8

. 9 %

T o t a l 4

. 3 9 1 0 0

. 0 % 7

. 9 2 1 0 0

. 0 %

V O C N O X

E m i s s i o n s P c t

. E m i s s i o n s P c t

. C a r b o n R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 2 9 2 2

. 1 % 2

. 4 5 7 5

. 6 %

S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 5 4 4 1

. 7 % 0

. 4 8 1 4

. 9 %

E v a p P e r m e a t i o n 0

. 0 9 7

. 2 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l V a p o r V e n t i n g 0

. 1 9 1 4

. 7 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E v a p F u e l L e a k s 0

. 1 3 9

. 8 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e R u n n i n g E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 3 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e S t a r t E x h a u s t 0

. 0 1 0

. 5 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

C r a n k c a s e E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 % 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 %

E x t e n d e d I d l e E x h a u s t 0

. 0 5 3

. 6 % 0

. 3 1 9

. 5 %

T o t a l 1

. 3 0 1 0 0

. 0 % 3

. 2 4 1 0 0

. 0 % C o u n t y P r o c e s s

C o u n t y P r o c e s s

C o u n t y P r o c e s s

A p p e n d i x C

- 2 1 3APPENDIXC-3Allentown-Bethlehem-EastonAreaMOVESSampleInputFilesJulyWeekdayMOVESRunSpecificationFileSettingsSamplexmlfileformat<moves><importermode="county"><filters><geographicselections>(SpecifyCountytoberun)<geographicselectiontype="COUNTY"key="42025"description="PENNSYLVANIA-CarbonCounty"/></geographicselections><timespan><yearkey="2018"/><monthid="07"/><dayid="2"/><dayid="5"/><beginhourid="1"/><endhourid="24"/><aggregateBykey="Hour"/></timespan><onroadvehicleselections><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/></onroadvehicleselections><offroadvehicleselections></offroadvehicleselections><offroadvehiclesccs></offroadvehiclesccs><roadtypes><roadtyperoadtypeid="1"roadtypename="Off-Network"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="2"roadtypename="RuralRestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="3"roadtypename="RuralUnrestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="4"roadtypename="UrbanRestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="5"roadtypename="UrbanUnrestrictedAccess"/></roadtypes></filters><databaseselectionservername="localhost"databasename="42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mi"/><agedistribution><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><sourceTypeAgeDistribution>(SpecifyAgeDistributiondatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\AgeDistribution\10Reg_RepCty\2018\42035_2018_SourceTypeAgeDistribution.csv</filename></sourceTypeAgeDistribution></parts></agedistribution><avgspeeddistribution><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><avgSpeedDistribution>(SpecifyAverageSpeedDistributiondatafilenameforcountybeingrun–AspreparedbyPPSUITEpostprocessor)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\avgSpeedDistribution.csv</filename></avgSpeedDistribution></parts></avgspeeddistribution><imcoverage><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><imcoverage>(SpecifyI/MParametersfilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\IM\42000_2018_IMCoverage.csv</filename></imcoverage></parts></imcoverage><fuel><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><FuelSupply>(SpecifyFuelSupplydatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\MOVES2010a\42000_2012_FuelSupply.csv</filename></FuelSupply><FuelFormulation>(SpecifyFuelFormulationdatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Fuel\42000_FuelFormulation_MOVES2010a.csv</filename></FuelFormulation></parts></fuel><zonemonthhour><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><zoneMonthHour>(SpecifyMeteorologydatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\Meteorology\2008\42025_2008_met.csv</filename></zoneMonthHour></parts></zonemonthhour><roadtypedistribution><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><roadTypeDistribution>(SpecifyRoadTypeDistributiondatafilenameforcountybeingrun–AspreparedbyPPSUITEpostprocessor)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\roadTypeDistribution.csv</filename></roadTypeDistribution></parts></roadtypedistribution><sourcetypepopulation><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><sourceTypeYear>(SpecifyVehiclePopulationdatafilenameforcountybeingrun)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\SourceTypePopulation.csv</filename></sourceTypeYear></parts></sourcetypepopulation><rampfraction><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts><roadType>(SpecifyRampFractionsdatafilenameforcountybeingrun–AspreparedbyPPSUITEpostprocessor)<filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\RampFraction\rampfraction_defaults.csv</filename></roadType></parts></rampfraction><vehicletypevmt><description><![CDATA[]]></description><parts>(SpecifyAnnualVMTandVMTFractionsfilenamesforcountybeingrun–AspreparedbyPPSUITEpostprocessor)<hpmsVTypeYear><filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hpmsVTypeYear.csv</filename></hpmsVTypeYear><monthvmtfraction><filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_MonthFraction\42025_2018_MonthVMTFraction.csv</filename></monthvmtfraction><dayvmtfraction><filename>C:\PAMOVES\MOVESInputs\MonthDayHourFractions\2018_DayFraction\42025_2018_dayvmtfraction.csv</filename></dayvmtfraction><hourvmtfraction><filename>C:\PAMOVES\Out\PA_2018_Julywkd_Inv_SIPGrw_Scenario2\\42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd\CDM\hourvmtfraction.csv</filename></hourvmtfraction></parts></vehicletypevmt></importer></moves>Samplemrsfileformat<runspec><description><![CDATA[MOVES2010RunSpecCreatedbyCENTRAL4Scenario:CARB2018JULWKDJulyWkdEmissionInventorywithuser'sdata]]></description><modelscalevalue="INV"/><modeldomainvalue="SINGLE"/><geographicselections>(SpecifyCountytoberun)<geographicselectiontype="COUNTY"key="42025"description="PENNSYLVANIA-CarbonCounty"/></geographicselections><timespan><yearkey="2018"/><monthid="07"/><dayid="5"/><beginhourid="1"/><endhourid="24"/><aggregateBykey="Hour"/></timespan><onroadvehicleselections><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="11"sourcetypename="Motorcycle"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="21"sourcetypename="PassengerCar"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="31"sourcetypename="PassengerTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="32"sourcetypename="LightCommercialTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="41"sourcetypename="IntercityBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="42"sourcetypename="TransitBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="43"sourcetypename="SchoolBus"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="3"fueltypedesc="CompressedNaturalGas(CNG)"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="2"fueltypedesc="DieselFuel"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="51"sourcetypename="RefuseTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="52"sourcetypename="SingleUnitShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="53"sourcetypename="SingleUnitLong-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="54"sourcetypename="MotorHome"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="61"sourcetypename="CombinationShort-haulTruck"/><onroadvehicleselectionfueltypeid="1"fueltypedesc="Gasoline"sourcetypeid="62"sourcetypename="CombinationLong-haulTruck"/></onroadvehicleselections><offroadvehicleselections></offroadvehicleselections><offroadvehiclesccs></offroadvehiclesccs><roadtypes><roadtyperoadtypeid="1"roadtypename="Off-Network"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="2"roadtypename="RuralRestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="3"roadtypename="RuralUnrestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="4"roadtypename="UrbanRestrictedAccess"/><roadtyperoadtypeid="5"roadtypename="UrbanUnrestrictedAccess"/></roadtypes><pollutantprocessassociations><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="1"processname="RunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="2"processname="StartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="15"processname="CrankcaseRunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="16"processname="CrankcaseStartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="17"processname="CrankcaseExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="3"pollutantname="OxidesofNitrogen"processkey="90"processname="ExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="1"processname="RunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="2"processname="StartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="11"processname="EvapPermeation"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="12"processname="EvapFuelVaporVenting"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="13"processname="EvapFuelLeaks"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="15"processname="CrankcaseRunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="16"processname="CrankcaseStartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="17"processname="CrankcaseExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="79"pollutantname="Non-MethaneHydrocarbons"processkey="90"processname="ExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="1"processname="RunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="2"processname="StartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="11"processname="EvapPermeation"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="12"processname="EvapFuelVaporVenting"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="13"processname="EvapFuelLeaks"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="15"processname="CrankcaseRunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="16"processname="CrankcaseStartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="17"processname="CrankcaseExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="1"pollutantname="TotalGaseousHydrocarbons"processkey="90"processname="ExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="1"processname="RunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="2"processname="StartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="11"processname="EvapPermeation"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="12"processname="EvapFuelVaporVenting"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="13"processname="EvapFuelLeaks"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="15"processname="CrankcaseRunningExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="16"processname="CrankcaseStartExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="17"processname="CrankcaseExtendedIdleExhaust"/><pollutantprocessassociationpollutantkey="87"pollutantname="VolatileOrganicCompounds"processkey="90"processname="ExtendedIdleExhaust"/></pollutantprocessassociations><databaseselections><databaseselectionservername="localhost"databasename="early_NLEV"description=""/><databaseselectionservername="localhost"databasename="calevii08"description=""/></databaseselections><inputdatabaseservername=""databasename=""description=""/><uncertaintyparametersuncertaintymodeenabled="false"numberofrunspersimulation="0"numberofsimulations="0"/><geographicoutputdetaildescription="COUNTY"/><outputemissionsbreakdownselection><modelyearselected="false"/><fueltypeselected="false"/><emissionprocessselected="true"/><onroadoffroadselected="true"/><roadtypeselected="true"/><sourceusetypeselected="true"/><movesvehicletypeselected="false"/><onroadsccselected="false"/><offroadsccselected="false"/><estimateuncertaintyselected="false"numberOfIterations="2"keepSampledData="false"keepIterations="false"/><sectorselected="false"/><engtechidselected="false"/><hpclassselected="false"/></outputemissionsbreakdownselection>(Specifyoutputdatabasefilenameforcountybeingrun)<outputdatabaseservername="localhost"databasename="42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mo"description=""/>><outputtimestepvalue="Hour"/><outputvmtdatavalue="true"/><outputshovalue="true"/><outputshvalue="true"/><outputshpvalue="true"/><outputshidlingvalue="true"/><outputstartsvalue="true"/><outputpopulationvalue="true"/>(Specifyinputdatabasefilenameforcountybeingrun)<scaleinputdatabaseservername="localhost"databasename="42025_2018_07_05_JulyWkd_mi"description=""/><pmsizevalue="0"/><outputfactors><timefactorsselected="true"units="Hours"/><distancefactorsselected="false"units="Miles"/><massfactorsselected="false"units="Grams"energyunits="MillionBTU"/></outputfactors><savedata></savedata><donotexecute></donotexecute><generatordatabaseshouldsave="false"servername=""databasename=""description=""/><donotperformfinalaggregationselected="false"/><lookuptableflagsscenarioid=""truncateoutput="false"truncateactivity="false"/><internalcontrolstrategies><internalcontrolstrategyclassname="gov.epa.otaq.moves.master.implementation.ghg.internalcontrolstrategies.rateofprogress.RateOfProgressStrategy"><![CDATA[useParametersNo]]></internalcontrolstrategy></internalcontrolstrategies></runspec>