Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes,
11 Major States, 1996-97 Crop

Potato Types 1/

State : Reds : Whites : Russets

co 6 7 2 94 91
ID H 7 8 93 92
ME 3 4 64 68 33 28
MI 3 3 3 72 72 25 2s
MN 28 27 22 14 50 59
NY 100 100

ND 3 20 18 42 39 38 43
OR 3 2 2 35 28 63 70
PA 100 100

WA 2 3 1s 12 83 85

11 State Avg.

1/ Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s)
constituting less than 1 percent of state's total.

Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes,
by State and Total, 1996-97 1/

1996 Crop 1997 Crop
State : Entered for Percent : Entered for
Certified Certified : Certification

Certification

: Percent Acres
AK : 146 150
CA 1,100 1,388 126 1,200
co H 13,225 12,419 94 11,500
ID : 51,730 51,124 99 46,773
ME : 23,900 22,728 95 19,000
MI : 2,950 2,434 83 2,500
MN 19,376 18,618 96 15,022
MT 9,700 10,024 103 9,800
NE 8,213 8,071 98 7,900
NY : 1,550 1,594 103 1,550
ND : 31,581 29,466 93 27, 433
OR + 2,667 2,752 103 2,526
PA : 207 208 100 175
sD : 2,000 741 37 1,435

1/ Data supplied by State seed certification officials.

Crop Production Agricultural statistics Board
July 1997 B-20 NASS, USDA


Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop, State,
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
: Total Production
Crop and State

Grapes Table Type

cA 707,000 592,000 700,000
Grapes Wine Type

CA : 2,275,000 2,225,000 2,700,000
Grapes Raisin Type 1/ : .

CA 2 2,252,000 2,186,000 2,400,000
All Grapes :

CA : 5,234,000 5,003,000 5,800,000
Apricots :

CA : 54,000 76,000 125,000

UT 2/ : 300

WA : 6,500 3,500 7,000

us : 60,500 79,800 132,000
Walnuts 3/ .

cA 234,000 208,000 230,000

1,000 Pounds

Almonds (Shelled Basis) 3/

370,000 510,000 680,000
1/ Fresh equivalent of dried and not dried.

2/ No significant commercial production in 1995 and 1997 due to freeze damage.
3/ Utilized production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-14 NASS, USDA


June Weather Summary: A 10-week run of unfavorably cool, wet weather finally

ended around mid-month across much of the Central and
Eastern States. In the Southeast, however, damp conditions persisted despite
the return of warmer weather. Meanwhile in the West, where several early-month
storms deposited rain as far south as the Great Basin and central California,
monthly temperatures averaged up to 3 degrees F below normal. In contrast,
readings ranged from 1 to 5 degrees F above normal on the northern Plains,
exacerbating topsoil moisture shortages until significant rain arrived at
month's end.

Although wetness subsided by mid-month, June rainfall approached record levels
in parts of the Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys. In Kentucky, June rainfall
was the third-highest on record and greatest since 1960 at both Lexington

(9.54 inches) and Louisville (8.15 inches}. Locations such as Evansville, IN
and Memphis, TN received above-normal precipitation during each of the first

6 months of 1997. Memphis' January-June rainfall totaled 46.94 inches, second
only to a 48.74-inch total in 1882.

Beginning on June 20, intense but localized downpours struck two different
areas. In southeastern Wisconsin, 9.78 inches pelted Brown Deer on June 20-21.
Milwaukee netted 4.23 inches on June 21 en route to their second wettest June on
record (9.98 inches). Meanwhile in central Texas, 18.00 inches was reported
near Bandera on June 21-22, northwest of San Antonio. For the month,

8.97 inches soaked Austin, TX, representing their sixth-wettest June and
greatest June total since 10.85 inches fell in 1987.

In contrast, little rain fell across parts of the eastern Great Lakes region and
the Northeast. In New York, Albany's June rainfall of 0.74 inches was second
only to a 0.65-inch total in 1964. Similarly, only 0.42 inches dampened Alpena,
MI, second to a 0.20-inch accumulation in June 1991. Although rain arrived on
the northern Plains at month's end, June rainfall totaled only 1.36 inches

(64 percent of normal) in Glasgow, MT and 0.46 inches (20 percent of normal) in
Williston, ND. In Florida, Tampa's rainfall of 1.46 inches was second to a
1.26-inch total in 1918. But much of the rest of the State received adequate to
surplus rainfall, including more than 12 inches on June 9-10 in parts of
southeastern Florida. Other notable downpours in the Southeast included

7.37 inches in downtown Charleston, SC on June 6, 6.49 inches in Jackson, MS

on June 10, and a 24-hour, monthly record 4.36 inches in Asheville, NC on June
26-27.

Despite drier-than-normal weather in North Dakota, runoff from long-term
moisture surpluses continued to boost Devils Lake above the historical

maximum level, set in 1830. By June 27, the surface of the lake stood

1,442.30 feet above sea level, 1.30 feet higher than the former record, and
41.43 feet above the historical minimum level, set in 1940. Farther west, snow
melt and above-normal rainfall contributed to flooding in the northern Rockies.
Extensive flooding occurred on Idaho's Snake River Plain and record crests were
reported on several rivers in western Montana. The Yellowstone River near
Livingston, MT crested on June 5, 0.76 feet above the record set on June 10,
1996, Meanwhile, reservoir levels in southern Texas continued to rebound from
long-term drought. The combined holdings of Choke Canyon Reservoir and Lake
Corpus Christi rose to 39.7 percent of normal by June 23, up from 29.4 percent
at the end of February 1997. In the Ohio Valley, extensive lowland flooding
early in the month subsided as rains became more scattered and temperatures
rose.

East of the Rockies, monthly temperatures exhibited little variation from

north to south across the Nation. As a result, readings in North Dakota (up to
5 degrees F above normal), for example, were only a few degrees cooler than
those in Georgia (up to 5S degrees F below normal). Several locations across the
Southeast noted their second-lowest June temperatures on record, including
Columbus, GA (75.1 degrees F) and Montgomery, AL (75.7 degrees F). In Indiana,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-4 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
(Metric Units)

Area Planted

Hectares
oats : 1,886,260 2,130,290 1,087,400 1,303,910
Barley 2 2,903,250 2,739,350 2,746,630 2,588,800
All Wheat : 30,610,350 28,638,700 25,434,770 25,695,790
Winter : 21,037,000 19,563,520 16,069,840 16,828,220
Durum : 1,464,980 1,323,340 1,435,030 1,298,250
Other spring : 8,108,370 7,751,840 7,929,900 7,569,320
Potatoes :
Winter 1/ : 5,870 6,310 5,870 6,230
Spring 1/ : 37,800 35,490 36,420 34,840
Summer : 31,530 27,520 30,230 26,350
Fall : $13,510 485,060 504,080 478,140
Total 2 588,700 554,380 576,600 545,560
All Tobacco : 296,510 322,550
Flue-cured H
Types 11-14 3 170,860 183,200

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
(Metric Units)

1996 1997: 1996 : 1997 +: 1997

Metric Tons

Oats 2 2.07 2.03 2,253,080 2,651,480

Barley 2 3.15 3.13 8,640,410 8,094,510
All Wheat > 2.44 2.57 62,099,410 66,154, 060
Winter > 2.50 2.88 40,225,870 43,642,300 48,458,740
Durum 7 2.20 1.70 3,152,650 2,202,470
Other spring : 2.36 2.05 18,720,890 15,492,850
Potatoes :
Winter 1/ : 25.29 22.99 148, 460 143,200 143,200
Spring 1/ : 27.92 27.99 1,016,820 975,130 975,130
Summer : 29.07 28.26 878,840 744,710
Fall : 40.68 20,504,150
Total : 39,11 22,548,270
All Tobacco 2 2.32 688,250
Flue-cured :

Types 11-14 > 2.41 2.37 412,020 433,570
Peaches : 939,070 970,690 1,201,510
Apricots : 72,390 113,400 119,750
Dried Prunes (CA) 1/ : 199,580 195,040 195,040
Almonds (CA) 231,330 322,050 308,440
Walnuts (CA) 188,690 208,650

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-5 NASS, USDA


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a

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-15 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER INS-FT, SOIL PROFILE)

duly 5, 1997

NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACIUTY eased on prfiminaryregts

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 ‘B-1 NASS, USDA


the production decline. Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast
at 25.2 bushels per acre. This is down 7.5 bushels per acre from last year and
the lowest average since 1989. Area for grain harvest is 3.21 million acres,
down 10 percent from 1996.

Arizona and California’s desert harvests were virtually complete by July 1.
Drought like conditions have persisted in northeast Montana and western North
Dakota. Montana’s forecast yield is the lowest since 1990, North Dakota’s since
1988. South Dakota durum production has shifted to the drier northwest.

Other Spring Wheat: Area for 1997 grain harvest is 18.7 million acres, down
5 percent from 1996.

Forecasted production is down from last year in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho,
Oregon and Washington) because of a 20 percent acreage reduction in Idaho.
Expected yields are higher than last year in all three States. Washington’s
spring crop was 81 percent headed, Idaho’s 49 percent.

Yield prospects are above last year in Colorado, Nevada, and Wyoming. Utah
prospects are down sharply. Part of Nevada’s crop is turning starting to turn
color. As of June 29, about 19 percent of North Dakota’s spring wheat was
heading out. Soil moisture supplies have generally been short and especially in
the western half of the state.

Tobacco: The first flue-cured production forecast for this season is

956 million pounds, up 5 percent from the 1996 production. Yield per
acre for all flue-cured is forecast at 2,111 pounds, down 40 pounds from the
1996 average yield. Acres for harvest, at 452,700 acres, are up 7 percent from
last year.

North Carolina’s crop is up 11 percent from last year, due to increased
acreages. North Carolina’s tobacco crop was reported in mostly fair to good
condition. Reduced condition of this year’s crop compared to the 1996 crop is a
result of the cooler growing season and reports of blue mold in the Eastern Belt
(Type 12).

Generally cooler then normal temperatures during the early part of the growing
season retarded plant growth and increased the incidence of disease. Warmer
weather during June has improved crop conditions and boosted plant growth.

Peaches: The 1997 peach crop is forecast at 2.65 billion pounds, up 28 percent

from 1996 and 15 percent above 1995 for comparable states. Despite
some late spring frosts throughout the U. S. in 1997, most states which
experienced total losses in 1996 are facing better prospects in 1997. The U. S.
Freestone crop is forecast at 1.55 billion pounds, up 58 percent from 1996 and
8 percent above 1995 for comparable states. The April and May 1997 frosts and
generally wet spring were the most widespread weather problems facing U. S.
peach producers this year. Growers reported losses ranging from total
destruction of young trees to reduced yields.

California’s Clingstone crop, at 1.10 billion pounds, is unchanged from last
month’s forecast and reflects a 1 percent increase from the 1996 production.
California Clingstone peaches, which are mostly canned, accounted for over

40 percent of U. S. peach production. Harvest was just beginning on July 1 with
quality very good but some smaller sizes reported. Off grades are running below
last year’s rate.

The California Freestone crop is expected to produce 760 million pounds,
30 million pounds above the June 1 forecast and 20 percent above the 1996 crop.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-7 NASS, USDA



Departure of Average Temperature from Normal (°F)
June 1997

eye 2

_4 4 r\ Pe
y YY VWs... 2 he, 2
Woe) Ya

YAK

ome 2
(7 0
ay brs, 70
as aii
(¥ 0~ MATE PREDICTION NOMA 2
v sed on prelininary dat
‘rop P. Agricultural Statist: ics Board
y 19 3 NASS,



Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal
Group, State, and United States, 1995-97

CA 5.7 6.6 250 245 1,300 1,425 1,617
FL : 8.8 8.8 210 175 1,173 1,848 1,540
Total : 14.5 15.4 226 205 2,473 3,273 3,157
Spring 1/ :
AL : 1.9 1.5 160 175 400 304 263
AZ : 9.0 6.2 275 275 1,755 2,475 1,705
CA : 20.1 18.6 375 385 6,230 7,538 7,161
FL + 35.5 35.3 219 215 7,830 7,765 7,591
Hastings : 27.5 26.5 230 230 5,940 6,325 6,095
Other FL 3 8.0 8.8 180 170 1,890 1,440 1,496
NC : 17.0 16.5 190 1s5 3,053 3,230 3,218
TX : 6.5 8.0 170 195 925 1,105 1,560
Total : 90.0 86.1 249 250 20,193 22,417 21,498
Summer :
AL : 6.7 5.9 150 170 1,139 1,005 1,003
CA 2 5.8 5.9 360 365 1,760 2,088 2,154
co : 9.7 7.6 330 320 2,776 3,201 2,432
DE : 5.9 4.2 250 270 1,475 1,475 1,134
IL : 6.0 4.6 275 280 1,485 1,650 1,288
IA : 1.5 1.2 210 190 240 315 228
MD : 1.9 2.9 200 270 360 380 783
MO : 7.1 5.8 230 245 1,587 1,633 1,421
NE 2 5.5 4.2 270 265 1,254 1,485 1,113
NE 3 2.5 2.0 265 225 702 663 450
NM 3 3.9 4.4 360 320 1,344 1,404 1,408
NC : 1.2 1.2 90 95 124 108 114
TX 3 3.5 7.7 240 200 1,645 2,280 1,540
VA : 7.5 7.5 225 180 2,040 1,688 1,350
Total : 74.7 65.1 259 252 17,931 19,375 16,418
See footnotes at end of table. -~continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1997 AB-18 NASS, USDA



Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997

Area Harvested : Yield : Production

1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bushels

164 89 90.0 95.0 93.0 14,760 8,277
138 130 100.0 95.0 95.0 13,800 12,350
10 5 43.0 38.0 430 190
270 310 25.0 21.0 6,750 6,510
2,940 2,650 27.0 20.0 79,380 53,000
24 24 30.0 25.0 720 600

3,546 32.7 25.2 115,840 80,927

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997

1996

1,000 Acres -- Bushels -- - 1,000 Bushels
co 3 68 62 75.0 80.0 2,660 5,100 4,960
ID 3 700 560 72.0 73.0 44,800 50,400 40,880
MN 2,400 2,350 42.0 38.0 70,400 100,800 89,300
MT 4,100 4,200 26.0 28.0 133,000 106,600 117,600
NV 10 6 75.0 90.0 450 750 540
ND 9,500 8,500 33.0 25.0 221,400 313,500 212,500
OR : 105 125 61.0 62.0 5,928 6,405 7,750
sD : 2,250 2,400 37.0 30.0 33,600 83,250 72,000
UT : 28 29 60.0 50.0 1,950 1,680 1,450
WA H 395 445 46.0 48.0 20,470 18,170 21,360
wi : 10 7 35.0 35.0 240 350 245
wY : 29 20 30.0 34.0 760 870 680
us 19,595 18,704 35.1 30.4 535,658 687,875 569,265

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 A-10 NASS, USDA



Index

Page
Table Narrative
Barley... 0... cece cece eee eee cee ee eee eens seeeeeee AT B- 6
Citrus Fruit...-.. 2... eee eee eee eee A-15 B- 9
Crop Moisture MapS..-........ cece eee eee ee eee eee + B- 1
Crop Summary......... eee eee teen eee ences A- 3
Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts........- sea e cece e ence R-14 B- 8
OAatS. cere cece cree er ee cree eee renee sete eer ser tesee R- 6 B- 3
Papayas-Hawaii..... ween eeeee ae ..)) AH16 B-10
PeacheS... 2... eee eee ee eee eee wee e eee eee vee B-13 B- 7
Potatoes.. we : + B-17 B-10
Reliability Statement....... 2... cece ce eee eee B-12
Tobacco, by Class and Type.. : +. A-12 B- 7
Wheat, All.......... eee e cece e eee e ence ee eeeeeee B- 8
Wheat, by Class..... . A-12
Wheat, Durum.....-.......20.eee eee eee eect eeeeeee B-10 B- 6
Wheat, Other Spring... eee eee A-10 B- 7
Wheat, Winter... 0.02... ccc cece cece eee ete ee eens A- 3 B- 6
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1997 B-13 NASS, USDA


state were fair to good with most lemons coming from the South Coast area.
Desert shippers have finished packing. Arizona’s lemon crop is forecast at
2.60 million boxes (99,000 tons), down 13 percent from April and down 49 percent
from a year ago.

Florida Citrus: Groves, trees, and new crop fruit were all in very good

condition during the month of June. Normal summer rains
provided adequate moisture in most areas. Heavier and more frequent
thunderstorms, however, are needed to help refill ponds, lakes, and streams that
were partially drained during the dry spring. The hot, wet, and humid weather
by mid-June provided ideal conditions for most trees to produce an abundance of
new growth on trees of all ages. Normal droppage of new crop fruit had abated
by early June as the trees adjusted to the size crop they could carry for the
next season. Fruit sizes are about normal for this time of year. Harvest of
Valencia oranges slowed to a million boxes per week by the end of the month as
supplies were running low in all areas. Movement of all seedless grapefruit was
nearly complete for the season as most of the packing houses and processors had
closed. Several fresh squeeze juice operations are still running and plan to
stay open through most of the summer moving small quantities of oranges and
grapefruit.

California Fruits and Nuts: Harvesting of apricots, figs, nectarines, peaches,

and plums continued. Cherry harvest was complete.
Pistachios were treated to control mildew. Almonds were treated for mites,
especially in the southern San Joaquin valley. Apples, pears, and walnuts were
treated for codling moth. Fruit set and sizing in olives were good. Grape
harvesting was winding down in the Coachella Valley by July 1 and was underway
in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Wine grapes were two to three weeks ahead
of schedule in the North Coast area.

California Citrus: Lemon grades throughout the state were fair to very good

with most lemons currently packed from the South Coast.
Desert shippers have finished packing. The Navel orange harvest was completed
in early June. Quality throughout the season was excellent with very large
fruit size. Picking of Valencia oranges was active throughout the state.
Approximately one half of the crop has been harvested. Quality was above
average. The grapefruit harvest is about 75 percent complete. Harvest was
nearly complete in the desert area, but continues in areas farther north. Fruit
size was small this year. Color and taste qualities were excellent.

Papayas: Fresh papaya production in Hawaii is estimated at 2.8 million pounds

for June, 1 percent lower than last month and 9 percent lower than
June 1996. June weather conditions were variable with warm temperatures, mixed
with sunshine and showers occurring throughout the month. Growers continue to
plant. However, some orchards have been abandoned prematurely due to the
severity of papaya ringspot virus infestation.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 5,245 acres, 21 percent more than May
and 43 percent more than a year ago. Harvested area, estimated at 2,265 acres,
was 7 percent more than last month and 24 percent more than last June.

All Potatoes: Potato farmers across the United States have planted an estimated
1.37 million acres of potatoes in all four 1997 seasons, down

6 percent from last year and 2 percent below 1995. Area for harvest is

forecast at 1.35 million acres, down 5 percent from a year ago and 2 percent

below two years ago. Winter plantings were up 8 percent, spring dropped

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-10 NASS, USDA


Barley:

and United States,

AZ
cA
co
DE
ID
KS
KY
MD
MI
MN
MT 1,200
NE 17
NV Ss
Ng 3
Ne 20
ND 2,600
OK 3
OR 150
PA 75
sc 4
sD 145
TX 11
UT 100
VA 75
WA 440
Wl z 75
Wy : 120
us 6,787

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
1995-96 and Forecasted July 1,

Area Harvested Production

69
180
90

35
760

9

14

50

22
570
1,200
8

5

4

20
2,200
8

120
75

-- Bushels --
105.0 109.0
60.0 65.0
108.0 120.0
68.0 79.0
73.0 71.0
33.0 47.0
74.0 70.0
61.0 85.0
48.0 57.0
64.0 61.0
43.0 52.0
53.0 56.0
75.0 90.0
60.0 75.0
65.0 71.0
55.0 45.0
23.0 39.0
64.0 69.0
67.0 67.0
50.0 60.0
44.0 44.0
34.0 49.0
82.0 90.0
68.0 77.0
62.0 66.0
53.0 60.0
86.0 87.0
58.5 58.1

1,890
14,000
10,000

2,960
60, 800

315

1,050

5,022

1,150
29,000
62, 400

222
320
325

1,800

101,250
170
7,220
5,175
210
6,080
322

8,370

6,720
20,880

3,456

8,455

359,562

- 1,000 Bushels

5,670
13,200
9,936
1,564
53,290
363
1,480
2,989
1,200
33,280
51, 600
901
375
180
1,300
143,000
69
9,600
5,025
200
6,380
374
8,200
5,100
27,280
3,975
10, 320

396,851

1997

8,280
5,025

180
5,060

245
8,550
5,005
32,340
3,900
10, 440

Crop Production
July 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Oats:

1,000

20
25
30
35
35
25
70

Acres

23
17
30
28
40
20
75
35
260
80
23
8
90
360
25
70
110
110
25
500
110
45
38
160
30
330
150

Area Harvested,
and United States,

Yield,

-- Bushels --

45.0
72.0
75.0
52.0
64.0
75.0
66.0
64.0
68.0
52.0
75.0
62.0
60.0
56.0
53.0
40.0
71.0
57.0
60.0
$0.0
57.0
30.0
97.0
56.0
54.0
60.0
34.0
72.0
80.0
50.0
58.0
53.0

40.0
61.0
80.0
62.0
62.0
70.0
72.0
65.0
70.0
55.0
75.0
70.0
60.0
53.0
65.0
32.0
60.0
63.0
66.0
35.0
62.0
49.0
105.0
55.0
60.0
60.0
52.0
74.0
75.0
47.90
61.0
60.0

1995-96 and Forecasted July 1

805
1,530
2,550
2,046
1,750
1,600
5,360
2,040

14, 625
3,760
1,620

366

5,130
18,000
1,363
4,720
4,500
5,310
1,950
21,600
6,900

780
3,395
9,440
1,575

11,500
5,040

630
1,120

210

18,700
2,112

162,027

and Production by State
1997

1,000 Bushels

900
1,800
2,250
1,820
2,240
1,875
4,620
1,600

12,920
4,160
2,100

434

3,600
15,120
1,537
2,000
7,455
4,275
1,200
19,000
5,130

600
3,395
7,560
1,620

21,600
3,400

648
1,120

150

17,400
1,696

155,225

920
1,037
2,400
1,736
2,480
1,400
5,400
2,275

18,200
4,400
1,725

560
5,400

19,080
1,625
3,640
6,600
6,930
1,650

17,500
6,820
2,205
3,990
8,800
1,800

19,800
7,800

666
1,275
188

22,570

1,800

182, 672

Crop Production

July 1997

A-6

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Potatoes:

Area Harvested, Yield,

Group, State,
Seasonal
Group and
State
Fall 2/ :
CA 3 11.5 10.5
co : 77.8 76.8
ID > 408.0 388.0
10 SW Co 2 28.0 27.0
Other ID > 380.0 361.0
IN 3 5.2 5.2
ME : 717.0 73.0
MA 2.6 2.7
MI : 46.0 47.5
MN : 82.0 75.0
MT 10.2 10.4
NE 12.4 19.1
NV H 7.9 7.2
NM 7 6.4 6.3
NY : 28.5 29.0
ND : 131.0 122.0
OH : 5.1 5.0
OR : 64.0 56.0
Malheur 2 13.3 10.8
Other OR 50.7 45.2
PA : 16.5 14.5
RI : 0.8 0.8
sD 5.7 4.3
UT : 4.2 3.0
WA > 161.0 148.0
wt 3 81.0 76.5
wy : 0.8 0.7
Total 22,245.6 2,181.5
us 21,424.8 1,348.1

and Production,

5,330
23,808
132,657
11,340
121,317
1,196
17,160
858
16,350
20,790
2,940
3,680
2,774
2,394
7,695
25,410
1,404
24,788
4,992
19,796
4,080
243
988
1,224
80,850
26,000
390

403, 009

443,606

by Seasonal

and United states, 1995-97 (continued)

4,600
28,786
139,960
11,900
128,060
1,352
21,175
676
13,800
24,600
3,213
4,402
3,160
2,560
7,980
28,820
1,275
31,684
5,320
26,364
4,208
212
1,596
1,176
94,990
31,590
224

452,039

497,104

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ The first forecast of fall potato production will be released on

November 10,

Crop Production
Suly 1997

1997.

B-19

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997

1,000 Acres Bushels -~ 1,000 Bushels

AL 3 80 110 44.0 35.0 35.0 3,520 3,850
AZ : 14 9 95.0 85.0 85.0 1,330 765
AR > 1,240 790 54.0 44.0 45.0 66,960 35,550
cA 3 550 380 69.0 65.0 75.0 37,950 28,500
co > 2,200 2,850 32.0 33.0 33.0 70,400 94,050
DE 3 78 77 53.0 62.0 55.0 4,134 4,235
FL : 10 15 38.0 39.0 39.0 380 $85
GA H 350 360 48.0 42.0 44.0 16,800 15,840
ID : 860 870 80.0 76.0 78.0 68,800 67,860
IL : 1,100 1,150 38.0 55.0 60.0 41,800 69,000
IN 3 720 640 38.0 53.0 54.0 27,360 34,560
IA 3 4s 25 35.0 36.0 38.0 1,575 950
KS : 8,800 10,700 29.0 34.0 42.0 255,200 449,400
KY 2 530 500 53.0 52.0 52.0 28,090 26,000
IA $ 130 145 43.0 40.0 38.0 5,590 5,510
MD : 227 215 52.0 55.0 60.0 11,804 12,900
MI 3 630 540 38.0 52.0 54.0 23,940 29,160
MN : 32 50 36.0 36.0 35.0 1,152 1,750
MS 3 230 190 49.0 39.0 42.0 11,270 7,980
MO : 1,250 1,040 39.0 45.0 53.0 48,750 55,120
MT : 1,980 1,500 32.0 35.0 37.0 63,360 55,500
NE : 2,100 21,900 35.0 35.0 35.0 73,500 66,500
NV : 9 a1 100.0 100.0 100.0 900 1,100
NJ 3 38 34 46.0 46.0 44.0 1,748 1,496
NM 3 110 300 37.0 31.0 34.0 4,070 10,200
NY : 150 135 43.0 $2.0 52.0 6,450 7,020
NC : $90 670 44.0 45.0 52.0 25,960 34,840
ND : 15 38 30.0 31.0 26.0 2,250 988
OH 2: 1,330 1,060 39.0 54.0 57.0 51,870 60,420
OK > 4,900 5,400 19.0 27.0 32.0 93,100 172,800
OR : 850 840 72.0 65.0 67.0 61,200 56,280
PA 2 190 175 48.0 52.0 52.0 9,120 9,100
sc : 270 305 45.0 47.0 50.0 12,150 15,250
SD : 1,580 1,150 35.0 33.0 33.0 55,300 37,950
TN 3 400 370 44.0 42.0 43.0 17,600 15,910
TX : 2,900 4,100 26.0 28.0 29.0 75,400 118,900
UT 2 160 160 38.0 45.0 45.0 6,080 7,200
VA 2 275 255 53.0 54.0 60.0 14,575 15,300
WA > 2,350 2,150 70.0 63.0 63.0 164,500 135, 450
wy 3 11 3 45.0 45.0 45.0 ags 405
wi : 125 135 43.0 50.0 52.0 5,375 7,020
wy 3 240 230 26.0 30.0 32.0 6,240 7,360
us : 39,709 41,583 37.2 39.3 42.8 1,478,048 1,780,554
Crop Production Agricultural statistics Board

July 1997 B-3 NASS, USDA


Indianapolis waited until June 17 for their first 80-degree maximum of the
month. Shreveport, LA tallied their first 90-degree maximum of the year on June
15, tying 1976 for their latest date on record. In Mississippi, Jackson's
first 90-degree day occurred on June 20, a day later than 1974, their previous
record-setting year. On June 21, the heat that overspread the Northeast
produced a high of 94 degrees F in Albany, NY, their highest since July 14,
1995. Even the Arizona desert experienced a lack of extreme heat, as Phoenix
failed to reach 110 degrees F by the end of June for the first time since 1965.

Despite some cool weather across northern Alaska, much of the State registered
monthly temperatures 2 to 5 degrees F above normal. On June 2, an 18-degree
reading in Prudhoe Bay was their lowest on record in June. Nine days later, the
mercury hit 40 degrees F in Barrow for the first time in 278 days, 13 days shy
of their 1967-68 record. But June 1997 was the warmest on record in Valdez
(56.7 degrees F, 4.9 degrees above normal) and third warmest in Juneau

(56.6 degrees F, 3.6 degrees above normal). Juneau's maximum of 82 degrees F on
June 22 was their highest since June 20, 1991. Valdez notched a monthly record
high of 86 degrees F on June 26. In addition to the warmth, very dry conditions
gripped much of the State. Kodiak's rainfall of 0.67 inches (14 percent of
normal) was a June record, while Nome's (0.06 inches, 5 percent of normal) was
their lowest in June since 1964.

Very wet conditions prevailed in Hawaii's windward (east-facing) locations. In
Hilo, monthly rainfall totaled 23.22 inches, or 374 percent of normal,

General Crop Comments: Mid-month above-normal temperatures brought an end to

the 10-week cool spell that slowed crop development and
hindered planting activities in the Eastern United States. Flooding and ponding
in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys delayed planting and caused farmers to
re-plant low-lying fields. Soybean planting progressed ahead of normal in most
other areas. Widespread rain and high heat units after mid-month helped corn
and soybeans to develop rapidly throughout the Corn Belt. Weed control was a
concern as rains limited spraying, and cool, wet soils prevented cultivating
early in the month. Average height of the corn acreage varied widely between
early- and late-planted fields.

Winter wheat harvest was hampered by damp weather and progressed behind normal
for most of June. Harvest started slowly in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas as
frequent rains kept combines out of fields. The persistent cool, wet weather
was an ongoing concern for farmers in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Warm, dry
weather in northern winter wheat-producing states allowed fields to head
rapidly.

Dry soils in the northern Plains stressed both winter wheat and newly emerged
spring grains. North Dakota soils were the driest in early June since 1988.
Despite late plantings, spring grains emerged ahead of the normal pace until
lack of moisture slowed development. Above-normal precipitation combined with
Mountain snowpack runoff flooded low-lying fields in Idaho and Montana, but
provided favorable conditions for small grain development.

Growing conditions in the Southwest were ideal as a 7-week hot spell ended at
mid-month. Cotton developed well ahead of average in Arizona and California.
In Texas and the Southeast, cotton planting and development were slowed by
unseasonably cool, wet weather. Rice development and peanut planting were also
hampered by the cool, wet weather. Sorghum planting finished just ahead of the
normal pace across the United States.

Oats: Oat production for 1997 is forecast at 183 million bushels, up 18 percent
from last year. If realized, this would be the third lowest oat
production since records were first kept in 1866. The forecasted yield, at

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-5 NASS, USDA


NES National

Crop Cae
Production uspa

Service
Washington, D.C.

Released July 11, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on “Crop Production” call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Forecasts refer to July 1, 1997.

All Wheat Production up 7 Percent

All wheat production is forecast at 2.43 billion bushels, up 7 percent from
1996. Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 38.3 bushels

per acre. This is up 2.0 bushels from last year, largely due to a tremendous
increase in winter wheat production.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.78 billion bushels, up 11 percent from
last month and 20 percent higher than 1996. Based on July 1 conditions, the
U.S. yield is forecast at a record high 42.8 bushels per acre. This is up

3.5 bushels from June 1 and 5.6 bushels per acre better than last year.

Hard Red Winter wheat production is up 141 million bushels from last month
largely due to increases in acreage ta be harvested and improved yields. The
Kansas yield is a new record. Soft Red Winter, at 455 million, is also up from
a month ago and is near 1995 levels. Illinois and Missouri growers are now
expecting record high yields. White Winter production is up from last month due
to improved Idaho and Oregon yield prospects.

Other spring wheat production is forecast at 569 million bushels, down

17 percent from 1996. Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at
30.4 bushels per acre. This is 4.7 bushels per acre below last year. Grain area
totals 18.7 million acres, down 5 percent.

Hard Red Spring production is down 18 percent from last year at 513 million
bushels. White Spring production is down 7 percent.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 80.9 million bushels, down 30 percent from
1996. Lower expected yields are the main cause of the decline. Based on July 1
conditions, the U.S.yield is forecast at 25.2 bushels per acre. This is down

7.5 bushels per acre from last year and the lowest average since 1989.

Cr Pr 2-2 (7-97)a


Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1995-1996
and Forecasted July 1, 1997 1/

1,000 Bushels

1995 825,042 455,568 264,043 475,046 102,280 60,612 2,182,591
1996 762,402 422,019 293,627 626,753 115,840 61,122 2,281,763
1997 :1,062,109 454,557 263,888 $12,622 80,927 56,643 2,430,746

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the

Previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season.

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,
State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997

: Area Harvested 3 Yield : Production
Class and Type

sosee Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds --

Class 1, Flue-cured
Type 11, Old Belts

NC : 76,000 86,000 2,120 2,200 161,120 189,200
VA > 37,700 40,000 2,235 2,100 84,260 84,000
us : 113,700 126,000 2,158 2,168 245,380 273,200
Type 12, Eastern NC :
Belt :
NC : 167,000 181,000 2,025 2,000 338,175 362,000
Type 13, NC Border & :
SC Belt :
NC 2 37,9000 38,900 1,980 2,200 73,260 83,600
sc > 51,000 56,000 2,310 2,200 117,810 123,200
US > 88,000 94,000 2,171 2,200 191,070 206,800
Type 14, GA-FL Belt :
FL : 7,500 7,700 2,680 2,500 20,100 19,250
GA : 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,150 113,620 94,600
us : 53,500 51,700 2,499 2,202 133,720 113,850
Total 11-14 422,200 452,700 2,151 2,111 908,345 955,850

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-12 NASS, USDA



Winter Wheat: Head Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting winter wheat
objective yield surveys in 10 States during 1997. Randomly selected plots in
winter wheat fields will be visited monthly from May through harvest to obtain
specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived actual field
counts. The final number of heads will be determined when the plots are
harvested at maturity.

Winter Wheat: Meads per Square Foot,
Selected States, 1993-97 1/ 2/

IL July 3 46.8 45.8 56.4 40.2 56.7
Final 3 46.0 45.8 56.4 40.2

KS July 3 50.2 49.6 $4.5 35.5 48.1
Final 2 49.1 49.6 55.0 35.6

MO July 3 44.9 39.4 49.8 42.8 53.8
Final : 44.7 39.4 49.8 43.3

MT July : 34.6 31.0 31.0 29.3 30.9
Final : 35.3 31.4 33.7 28.7

NE July z 50.4 45.7 60.3 42.9 48.4
Final : 49.8 45.9 58.8 42.6

OH July : 43.1 47.1 53.9 43.1 53.6
Final : 42.8 47.1 52.9 43.6

OK July : 45.1 48.0 43.4 32.5 52.8
Final 3 45.1 48.0 43.4 32.5

TX July 3 35.3 35.6 37.9 32.2 42.9

1/ Based on the number of heads counted in plots selected for the objective
yield survey.

2/ Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains Summary” in
September.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 A-1l NASS, USDA


Reliability of July 1 Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between June 25 and July 3 to gather information on expected
yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey for winter wheat was conducted
in 10 States that accounted for 63 percent of the 1996 production. Plots were
revisited to make counts and harvest mature samples. In late fields, counts
such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were
made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. A S-year
historical head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads
can be clipped, threshed, and weighed. The number of heads times the weight of
the heads in a sample plot can then be expanded to an estimate of yield per
acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield.
The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches maturity and or
harvested on the final visit.

The farm operator survey included a sample of nearly 16,000 producers
representing all major production areas. These producers were selected from
respondents to an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable
yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing
season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness
and consistency with historical estimates. The indications were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and
previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the
survey indications and the State analysis to prepare the published July 1
forecasts.

Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead,

a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the
marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks,
production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then
made if data relationships warrant changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 winter

wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by
expressing the deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1977-1996 20-year period; the square root of the
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is
2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production
forecast of 1.78 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate
by more than 2.0 percent or approximately 36 million bushels. Chances are 9 out
of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed

3.4 percent or approximately 61 million bushels. Differences between the July 1
winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years
have averaged 17 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 61 million bushels.
The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 4 times and above 6 times.
This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to
understate or overstate final production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-12 NASS, USDA


6 percent, summer fell 13 percent, and fall, with 88 percent of total U.S.
acreage, declined 6 percent.

Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes in 1997 is estimated at

1.20 million acres, down 6 percent from last year’s record high
and 2 percent below 1995. Harvest is expected from 1.18 million acres,
5 percent less than a year ago and 2 percent under 1995.

Planting started later than normal in most areas of the U.S. with quite a bit of
uncertainty because of last season's record production and low prices. Growers
in most areas cut back on early maturing varieties. Progress east of the Rocky
Mountains was slowed by floods, and cool, wet weather. Planting finished on
time, however, as fields dried in late May and early June. Crop progress is
later than normal. In North Dakota, potato plants were 2 inches shorter than
normal on July 1. Flooding and low prices discouraged farmers in Minnesota.

The Wisconsin potato crop caught up in late June. In Maine, emergence was

15 percentage points later than normal. New York and some areas of New England
are now worried about drying soils.

Most planting in the Pacific Northwest was accomplished ahead of schedule and
early growth is good. There was some flooding of the Snake River in eastern
Idaho, with acreage loss and crop setback, otherwise the crop is ahead of
schedule. Digging in Oregon’s Umatilla Basin has already started. Weather in
Colorado has been nearly ideal for potato growth.

Eastern States have estimated planted acres at 122,500 acres, down 4 percent
from last year and 5 percent below 1995. Maine continued to lose potato acreage
with a 5 percent decline this year. Pennsylvania acreage dropped 12 percent.

On the other hand, New York acreage increased 3 percent, as Massachusetts and
Rhode Island remained the same as last year.

Central States planted an estimated 365,800 acres of fall potatoes this year,
down 5 percent from last year and 2 percent less than 1995. Acreage jumped more
than 50 percent in Nebraska with new areas coming into production. Six States
planted less. Minnesota and North Dakota lost 7 percent each to last year’s
level. Wisconsin and Michigan were down 6 percent. South Dakota dropped

25 percent, while Indiana stayed the same as a year ago.

Western States potato acreage plantings were estimated at 710,300 acres in 1997,
down 6 percent from a year ago and 2 percent below two years ago. Oregon cut
12 percent, Washington dropped 9 percent, and Idaho 5 percent from last year.
California’s growers planted 9 percent fewer potatoes than last year. Utah
dropped 28 percent and Wyoming 22 percent. New Mexico’s acreage declined

6 percent, while Montana held at last year’s level.

Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 16.4 million cwt,

down 15 percent from last year and 8 percent below 1995.
Farmers expect to harvest 65,100 acres during the summer season, off 13 percent
from a year ago and 8 percent below two years ago. The average yield, forecast
at 252 cwt per acre, is down 7 cwt from last year and 2 cwt below 1995. Planted
area of 68,000 acres is down 13 percent.

Hot weather in late June has hurt non-irrigated fields on the East Coast. New
Jersey’s growers expect yields to drop 40 cwt per acre from last year.
Virginia’s expectations are down 45 cwt. Fields with irrigation have been
helped in many cases. Harvest is underway in Virginia’s Del-Mar-Va Peninsula,
and will soon start in the other two States. Alabama’s farmers are killing
vines and will harvest as fields dry out a little. Chip fields in Missouri are
being harvested rapidly, and harvest is mostly finished in the Bootheel area.
New Mexico and Texas will begin digging in mid-July. Colorado’s acreage is down
22 percent, but yields are expected to be good. California’s summer yields are
expected to be above average as harvest is progressing normally.

Crop Production Agricultural statistics Board
July 1997 B-11 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997

1396 1997 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997
: -- 1,000 Acres -- --- Bushels -- 2 --~~--- 1,000 Bushels --~~---
AL : 80 110 44.0 35.0 2,880 3,520 3,850
AZ : 178 98 90.4 92.3 10,354 16,090 9,042
AR 3 1,240 730 54.0 45.0 47,000 66,960 35,550
CA : 688 510 75.2 80.1 32,725 51,750 40,850
co 1 2,268 2,912 33.3 34.0 105,260 75,500 99,010
DE : 78 17 53.0 $5.0 4,352 4,134 4,235
FL 3 10 15 38.0 39.0 384 380 585
GA 3 350 360 48.0 44.0 11,400 16,800 15,840
ID : 1,560 1,430 76.4 76.0 103,320 119,200 108,740
IL 3 1,100 1,150 38.0 60.0 68,110 41,800 69,9000
IN : 720 640 38.0 54.0 39,600 27,360 34,560
IA : 45 25 35.0 38.0 1,225 1,575 950
KS : 8,800 10,700 29.0 42.0 286,000 255,200 449,400
KY : 530 500 53.0 52.0 24,380 28,090 26,000
LA : 130 145 43.0 38.0 2,880 5,590 5,510
MD Fy 227 215 52.0 60.0 14,400 11,804 12,900
MI : 630 540 38.0 54.0 37,200 23,940 29,160
MN : 2,442 2,405 41.9 37.9 71,849 102,382 91,240
MS : 230 190 ~ 49.0 42.0 6,270 11,270 7,980
MO : 1,250 1,040 39.0 53.0 47,970 48,750 55,120
MT : 6,350 6,010 27.8 29.9 195,750 176,710 179,610
NE 3 2,100 1,900 35.0 35.0 86,100 73,500 66,500
NV 2 19 17 86.8 96.5 850 1,650 1,640
NZ : 38 34 46.0 44.0 1,824 1,748 1,496
NM 3 110 300 37.0 34.0 3,300 4,070 10,200
NY : 150 135 43.0 52.0 6,875 6,450 7,020
NC : 530 670 44.0 52.0 28,160 25,960 34,840
ND > 12,515 11,188 31.6 23.8 300,300 395,130 266,488
OH : 1,330 1,060 39.0 57.0 73,810 51,870 60,420
OK z 4,900 5,400 19.0 32.0 109,200 93,100 172,800
OR : 955 965 70.8 66.4 60,438 67,605 64,030
PA 2 190 175 48.0 $2.0 10,175 9,120 9,100
sc H 270 305 45.0 50.0 8,960 12,150 15,250
sD 3 3,854 3,574 36.1 30.9 90,736 139,270 110,550
IN 3 400 370 44.0 43.0 15,980 17,600 15,910
TX 3 2,900 4,100 26.0 29.0 75,600 75,400 118,900
UT : 188 189 41.3 45.8 8,950 7,760 8,650
VA 3 275 255 53.0 60.0 17,600 14,575 15,300
WA 2 2,745 2,595 66.5 60.4 153,770 182,670 156,810
wy : 11 9 45.0 45.0 624 495 405
wi : 135 142 42.4 51.2 8,070 5,725 7,265
wy 2 269 250 26.4 32.2 7,960 7,110 8,040
us : 62,850 63,495 36.3 28.3 2,182,591 2,281,763 2,430,746
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1997 B-8 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM PALMER)
July 5, 1997 UPDATED BIWEEKLY
MOIST]
"y WOnte/ MOIST} “C
X v7
~,
\f \ y MOST! ) ys:
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am N,
MODERATE y CV} roe
MODERATE ;
a“. { 7?
\ 1 ARR ( [operce
ORME”
N \oy
—s N
NY recent)
~ / f
se ff ‘
N MODERATE,
\/
Qa
NOAA/USOA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _ aacad an; repent
Drought Severity
Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal

dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-2 NASS, USDA


On July 1, harvest was nearing the halfway point, with the midseason varieties,
Flavorcrest and Rich Lady, the major varieties being harvested. Peach quality
to date is good, and fruit are generally medium sized.

No state reported a total crop failure as in 1996. However, South Carolina and
Oklahoma are still much below their normal levels due to spring frosts. South
Carolina’s production of 150 million pounds is unchanged from the June forecast,
but much above the 3 million pounds produced in 1996.

The Georgia peach crop forecast, at 160 million pounds, is also unchanged from
June 1, and well above the 10 million pounds reported in 1996. Conditions
dropped slightly the first two weeks of June 1997, but improved significantly
during the next two or three weeks as earlier maturing varieties were harvested.
Harvest was 67 percent completed as of June 29, slightly ahead of normal. There
were some reports of isolated crop damage, but most of the larger growing areas
were unaffected.

Prospects for a good crop and large sizes face New Jersey orchardists. In New
York, the cold spring has delayed development, and additional precipitation in
Pennsylvania would be welcome. Growers in Michigan and West Virginia continue
to lose trees from recent frigid winters and spring frosts. The crop in
Michigan is in excellent condition although behind normal maturity. In the
Midwest and mountain states, brown rot and slower overall development is showing
up on some fruit as the result of frosts, spring rains, and cool temperatures.
Prospects are good in the Pacific Northwest.

California Grapes: California’s all grape production for 1997 is forecast at

5.80 million tons, 16 percent above 1996 and 11 percent
above two years ago. Wine grapes represent 47 percent of the total, raisin
grapes 41 percent, and table grapes 12 percent. After years of steady growth,
wine varieties are expected to reach a record high production in 1997 and
produce over four times the quantity of 1972.

At 2.70 million tons, wine varieties are 21 percent above 1996 and 19 percent
above two years ago. Due to the warm, dry spring, grapes are developing well
ahead of normal. A good quality crop is also expected. Recent plantings of
such varieties as Merlot and Zinfandel are now reaching bearing age and
contributing to the rapid growth.

The forecast for raisin type varieties is 2.40 million tons, up 10 percent from
last year and 7 percent above 1995. The warm, dry spring weather also hastened
the maturity of the raisin grapes. Picking of the Thompson seedless variety for
fresh use was winding down by July 1 in the Coachella Valley. Harvest for fresh
use in the southern San Joaquin Valley was underway by late June. As in 1996,
no acreage was enrolled in the Raisin Industry Diversion program.

Table grape production is forecast at 700,000 tons, up 18 percent from 1996 but
down 1 percent from 1995. Picking of table grapes was nearing completion in the
Coachella Valley by July 1. Picking began in late June in the southern San
Joaquin Valley. Quality was reported above average.

Apricots: The final forecast for the 1997 apricot crop is 132,000 tons, up
almost two-thirds from last year’s crop. California growers had

95 percent of the total and Washington producers the remainder. Utah's crop was

totally destroyed by frost.

California’s apricot crop is forecast at 125,000 tons, unchanged from the June
forecast and almost two-thirds above 1996's 76,000 tons. There was a good fruit
set in California resulting from high winter chilling hours and a warm, mild
spring. The crop is 7 to 10 days ahead of last year’ crop.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-8 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
(Domestic Units)

1,000 Acres

Oats : 4,661 5,264 2,687 3,222

Barley 7,174 6,769 6,787 6,397
All Wheat 75,639 70,767 62,850 63,495
Winter 51,983 48,342 39,709 41,583
Durum z 3,620 3,270 3,546 3,208
Other Spring : 20,036 19,155 19,595 18,704
Potatoes :
Winter 1/ 2 14.5 15.6 14.5 15.4
Spring 1/ : 93.4 87.7 30.0 86.1
Summer : 77.9 68.0 74,7 65.1
Fall : 1,268.9 1,198.6 1,245.6 1,181.5
Total : 1,454.7 1,369.9 1,424.8 1,348.1
All Tobacco : 732.7 797.0
Flue-cured :
Types 11-14 : 422.2 452.7

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1996 and Forecasted July 1, 1997
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production

Crop and Unit :

w
a
o
a
an
~

Oats Bu 155,225 182,672
Barley " 58.5 58.1 396,851 371,778
All Wheat "36.3 38.3 2,281,763 2,430,746
Winter " 2 37.2 42.8 1,478,048 1,603,580 1,780,554
Durum " > 32.7 25.2 115,840 80,927
Other Spring " > 35.1 30.4 687,875 569,265
Potatoes
Winter 1/ Cwt : 226 205 3,273 3,157 3,157
Spring 1/ " 2 249 250 22,417 21,498 21,498
Summer " 259 252 19,375 16,418
Fall " : 363 452,039
Total " 2 349 A977, 104
All Tobacco Lb : 2,071 1,517,334
Flue-cured :

Types 11-14 "2,151 2,114 908,345 955,850
Peaches « 2 2,070,300 2,140,000 2,648,900
Apricots Ton : 79.8 125.0 132.0
Dried Prunes (CA) 1/ " : 220.0 215.0 215.0
Almonds (CA) Lb : 510,000 710,000 680,000
Walnuts (CA) Ton : 208.0 230.0

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 BA NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted July 1, 1997 1/

2 Utilized Production 3 Utilized Production

: Boxes Ton Equivalent

Crop and State

> 1994-95 : 1995-96 : 1996-97 :

1995-96 : 1996-97

1,000 Tons
Oranges :
Early Mid « :
Navel 3/ +
RZ : 400 700 400 15 27 15
CA : 35,000 38,000 43,000 1,313 1,426 1,613
FL : 119,700 121,200 134,200 5,387 5,454 6,039
TX 4/ : 350 830 1,300 40 35 55
us : 156,050 160,730 178,900 6,755 6,942 7,722
Valencia :
BZ : 650 950 600 24 36 23
CA > 21,000 28,000 28,000 788. 1,051 1,050
FL : 85,800 82,006 91,500 3,861 3,690 4,118
TX 4/ : 105 110 120 4 4 5
us : 107,555 111,060 120,220 4,677 4,781 5,196
All H
AZ : 1,050 1,650 1,000 39 63 38
CA : 56,000 66,000 71,000 2,101 2,477 2,663
FL : 205,500 203,200 225,700 9,248 9,144 10,157
TX 4/ : 1,055 940 1,420 44 39 60
us : 263,605 271,790 299,120 11,432 11,723 12,918
Temples :
FL : 2,550 2,150 2,400 114 97 108
Grapefruit 3
White Seedless :
FL : 25,700 23,200 23,500 1,092 986 999
Colored Seedless :
FL > 28,700 28,100 31,500 1,220 1,194 1,339
Other :
FL : 1,300 2,050 1,000 S55 4s 43
All 2
AZ : 1,400 1,200 900 47 40 30
cA S/ :
Desert : 3,300 111
Other Areas z 6,000 201
Total : 9,300 8,100 9,200 312 271 308
FL : 85,700 52,350 56,000 2,367 2,225 2,381
TX 4/ H 4,650 4,550 5,300 186 182 212
us : 71,050 66,200 71,400 2,912 2,718 2,931
Tangerines 3
AZ : 650 1,000 550 25 38 21
cA 4/ : 2,500 2,600 2,900 94 97 109
FL : 3,550 4,500 6,400 168 213 304
US : 6,700 8,100 9,850 287 348 434
Lemons :
BZ : 3,600 5,100 2,600 137 194 99
cA : 20,000 21,000 22,000 760 798 836
Us : 23,600 26,100 24,600 897 992 935
Tangelos :
FL : 3,150 2,450 3,950 142 110 178
K-Early Citrus
FL 120 160 150 5 7 7
Crop Production Agricultural statistics Board

July 1997 A-15 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group,
and United States, 1996-97

Seasonal Group
and State

Seasonal Group
and State

1,000 Acres

Winter 1/ : Fall

CA : 5.7 6.6 CA 11.5 10.5
FL : 8.8 9.0 co 78.0 77.0
Total : 14.5 15.6 ID 410.0 390.0
: 10 SW Co 28.0 27.0
Spring 1/ : Other ID 382.0 363.0
AL : 2.0 1.6 IN 5.7 5.7
AZ : 9.0 6.2 ME 78.0 74.0
CA 3 20.1 18.6 MA 2.7 2.7
FL H 38.0 36.0 MI 52.0 49.0
Hastings : 28.5 27.0 MN 85.0 79.0
Other FL : 9.5 9.0 MT 10.4 10.4
NC 3 17.5 17.0 NE 12.7 19.5
TX 3 6.8 8.3 NV 8.0 7.3
Total 2 93.4 87.7 NM 6.7 6.3
5 NY 29.0 30.0
Summer : ND 134.0 125.0
AL : 6.8 6.0 OH 3 5.2 5.1
CA : 5.8 5.9 OR : 65.0 57.0
co 3 9.9 7.8 Malheur 13.6 11.0
DE 6.0 4.3 Other OR 51.4 46.0
Ib : 6.3 4.8 PA 17.0 15.0
IA 2 1.5 1.3 RI 0.8 0.8
MD : 2.0 3.0 sD 6.0 4.5
MO : 7.8 6.4 ut 4.3 3.1
5.6 4.3 WA 163.0 148.0
2.6 2.1 wi 83.0 78.0
3.9 4.4 wy 0.9 0.7

1.2 1.2
10.5 8.5 Total : 1,268.9 1,198.6

8.0 8.0

717.9 68.0

1,454.7 1,369.9

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Production, United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted 1996-97

Crop Year 1/ 1995-96 1996-97 1996-97
3 1,000 Tons
Citrus Fruits :
Oranges : 11,723 12,861 12,918
Grapefruit 2 2,718 3,062 2,931
Lemons : 992 950 935
Tangerines : 348 437 434
Temples (FL) 3 97 108 108
Tangelos (FL) : 110 178 178
K-Early Citrus (FL) : 7 7 7

Metric Tons

Oranges : 10,634,930 11, 667,300 11,719,010
Grapefruit : 2,465,730 2,777,800 2,658,960
Lemons 3 899,930 861,830 848,220
Tangerines : 315,700 396,440 393,720
Temples (FL) : 88,000 97,980 97,980
Tangelos (FL) H 99,790 161,480 161,480
K-Early Citrus (FL) 6,350 6,350 6,350

1/ Crop year begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 A-3 NASS, USDA


56.7 bushels per acre, is down 1.1 bushels from last year’s 57.8 bushels. Area
harvested and to be harvested, at 3.22 million acres, is up 20 percent from
1996. This also would be the third lowest oat acreage harvested for grain on
record.

The forecasted yield in North Dakota, at 35 bushels per acre, is down 15 bushels
from 1996 as the State recorded the driest early June soils since 1988. Rain
showers occurred throughout North Dakota the end of June, but seasonal
precipitation remained below normal. In South Dakota, 74 percent of the acreage
was headed, ahead of last year but just behind the average pace. Cool
temperatures and rains in June helped the Wisconsin crop progress rapidly.

Barley: Barley production is forecast at 372 million bushels, down 6 percent

from a year ago but up 3 percent from 1995. Yields are expected to
average 58.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels from last year. Area harvested
and to be harvested, at 6.40 million acres, is 6 percent below the 6.79 million
acres harvested the previous year.

Forecasted yields in Idaho, Kentucky, Minnesota, and North Dakota declined from
1996, but stayed the same or increased in all the other major producing States.
Yields are expected to decline 10 bushels per acre in North Dakota, the leading
barley producing State. Crop development in the State was ahead of last year,
but behind the 5-year average during June. Soil moisture supplies were reported
as mostly short to very short in Western North Dakota. Favorable growing
conditions in other areas of the country, however, have boosted expected yields
over a year ago. Record yields are forecasted in Colorado, Maryland, Nebraska,
New Jersey, North Carolina, Utah, and Wisconsin. Harvest ended in early July in
the Desert Valley region of California and is winding down rapidly in the San
Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys.

Winter Wheat: Area for grain harvest this year is forecast at 41.6 million

acres, unchanged from the June 30 “Acreage” and up 5 percent from
1996. Harvesting progress trailed average in the 19 major producing States as
of June 29.

Hard Red Winter Objective Yield head count forecasts remain at record highs in
Oklahoma and Texas, and are well above average in Kansas. The Kansas head
weight forecast is the highest since 1986. Montana’s head weights and numbers
are similar to 1995. About 3 percent of Nebraska’s winter wheat is ripe.
California growers realized much higher yields than expected. New Mexico’s
cutting was 36 percent complete, also with better yields. The South Dakota crop
is maturing at a near normal pace. Over half of Wyoming’s winter wheat was
turning color. Oklahoma’s harvest trails average.

Harvested yields were generally better than expected in the Southeast and Delta
Soft Red Winter States. The Florida harvest finished in mid-June and Georgia
and Louisiana’s were nearing completion, as waS Mississippi’s. Harvest
progress trailed average in Arkansas, Indiana, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
About 94 percent of North Carolina’s wheat is harvested. Virginia growers have
enjoyed ideal harvest weather. Objective Yield head counts are well above
average in Illinois, Missouri, and in Ohio. Forecasted weight per head is below
average for Ohio. Michigan’s crop is virtually all headed.

Idaho and Oregon growers are now expecting higher yields. Washington's
Objective Yield Survey head counts and weight forecasts are both above average,
but down from last year.

Durum Wheat: Durum production is forecast at 80.9 million bushels, down
30 percent from 1996. Lower expected yields are the main cause of

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1997 B-6 NASS, USDA


All oranges: Production for the 1996-97 season is forecast at a record large
12.9 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous
forecast in June, mainly due to increases in Florida. The forecast is up
10 percent from a year ago. This year’s crop is 9 percent larger than the
previous record of 11.8 million tons set in the 1979-80 season. Florida's
production amounts to 226 million boxes (10.2 million tons), up 1 percent from
June’s forecast and 11 percent above last season. Early and midseason varieties
from Florida remain at a record large 134 million boxes (6.04 million tons),
11 percent above last year. Florida’s record large Valencia crop forecast is
increased to 91.5 million boxes (4.12 million tons), up 2 percent from June and
12 percent above last season's crop. The California all orange production
forecast, at 71.0 million boxes (2.66 million tons), is unchanged from the
previous forecast in April and is up 8 percent from last season. California’s
Navel orange forecast is 43.0 million boxes (1.61 million tons), the same as in
April and up 13 percent from last year's production. The California Valencia
forecast is 28.0 million boxes (1.05 million tons), unchanged from April and
equal to last year.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ): Yield for the 1996-97 season
is forecast at 1.58 gallons
per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from June. The forecast projects the
final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The final
1995-96 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.52 gallons per box at
42.0 degrees Brix. The average yield for 1996-97 early and midseason varieties
was final in April at 1.52 gallons per box, up from last season’s 1.45.
Valencia yield is projected at 1.68 gallons per box, unchanged from last month,
but up from 1.67 last season.

This report was approved on July 11, 1997, by the Secretary of Agriculture and
the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board.

lan LZA Nh

cretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Dan Glickman Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1997 B-2 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12,
1997.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

Cc. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Kevin Barnes ~- Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369
Rhonda Brandt- Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621

Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526
Roger Latham ~ Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234
Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285
Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,

Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235
Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157
Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215
Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,
Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270
Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1997 B-14 NASS, USDA



Washington's crop, at 7,000 tons, is double 1996's production and 500 tons above
1995.

California Walnuts: The 1997 California walnut production is forecasted at

230,000 tons on 170,000 bearing acres. This production is
11 percent above 1996's 208,000 tons. The increase in production is mainly due
to a much larger Hartley production. Also, lower blight and less droppage
should result in a cleaner crop with above average quality.

California Almonds: California’s 1997 almond production is forecast at

680 million meat pounds, down 4 percent from the May
forecast but 33 percent above 1996's production. The crop has a bearing
acreage of 420,000 acres. Production from the Nonpareil variety is forecast at
333 million pounds, up 33 percent from last season.

The average nut set per tree is 7,567, up 38 percent from 1996. The Nonpareil
average nut set is 7,714, up 55 percent from a year earlier. The average kernel
weight for all varieties sampled was 1.59 grams, down 14 percent from last
year. A total of 97.9 percent of the nuts sampled were sound.

The crop is one to two weeks ahead of normal. There has been some concern about
bud failure, which is a genetic susceptibility of some varieties to high heat.
Some orchards in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley were subjected to
high heat last summer, affecting this year’s bud development.

Grapefruit: The final forecast of the 1996-97 U.S. grapefruit crop is
2.93 million tons, down 4 percent from last month, but up
8 percent from last season.

Florida's all grapefruit forecast was a record large 56.0 million boxes

(2.38 million tons), 5 percent lower than last month, but 7 percent higher
than a year ago. The all seedless grapefruit forecast is 55.0 million boxes
(2.34 million tons), down 5 percent from June, but 7 percent higher than
1995-96. The seedy (Duncan) grapefruit forecast continues at 1.0 million boxes
(43,000 tons), unchanged from last month, but 5 percent below last year.

The Florida forecasts are based on objective fruit counts and measurement
surveys in relationship to the harvest patterns and utilization of the past

2 seasons. All citrus forecasts project certified utilization, including a
preseason allocation of less than 2 percent for unrecorded usage.
Certifications include only fruit actually shipped in fresh pack or recorded at
a processing plant.

California’s grapefruit forecast is 9.20 million boxes (308,000 tons), unchanged
from the last forecast but 14 percent above last season. Harvest is wrapping up
in the desert area, but continues in areas farther north. Color and taste
qualities are excellent. Fruit size is relatively small.

The Texas grapefruit forecast, at 5.30 million boxes (212,000 tons), is
unchanged from the last forecast but up 16 percent from a year ago. Arizona's
grapefruit forecast of 900,000 boxes (30,000 tons) is down 10 percent from the
latest forecast and down 25 percent from the 1995-96 season.

Lemons: The 1996-97 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 935,000 tons, 2 percent
fewer than last quarter and 6 percent less than last season.

California’s forecast for the 1996-97 crop is 22.0 million boxes (836,000 tons),
the same as in April but S percent more than in 1995-96. Grades throughout the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1997 B-9 NASS, USDA


Peaches:

Total Production by Type,
1995-96 and Forecasted July 1

State,
1997

Total Production

and United States,

CA - Freestone

DE 1/

Total Above

CA
Clingstone

PB

a

wR

SVCOUGEFOWVOENUAHUWAON

N
NERO Ww
noun

WOHBODCOMONUDODBODCDRODOCSD00H

a

26.0
44.0
18.0

1,436.5

1/ Forecast discontinued in 1997.
2/ No significant commercial production in 1996 due to freeze damage.

Crop Production
July 1997

Million Pounds

A-13

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IRNOWORY

Pa

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760.0

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Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS,

USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the following year.

2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67,
FL-85, TX~80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;
tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and
midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

S/ California Desert and Other Areas Grapefruit forecasts combined with All
Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, Hawaii

1,000 Pounds

May 3,705 4,335 1,940 2,125 3,385 2,860
gun 3,660 5,245 1,830 2,265 3,105 2,830
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1997 B-16 NASS, USDA