Cr Pr 2-2 (9-99)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released September 10, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Corn Production Down 2 Percent

Soybean Production Down 3 Percent

Cotton Production Down 4 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 9.38 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the last forecast and down 4 percent

from 1998. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 132.2 bushels per acre, down

2.5 bushels per acre from August and 2.2 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the fourth largest

production and third highest yield on record. Acreage for grain harvest is estimated at 71.0 million acres,

unchanged from August.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.78 billion bushels, down 3 percent from August 1, but up 1

percent from last year’s record of 2.76 billion bushels. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected

to average 37.9 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from last month and down 1.0 bushel from 1998. Acreage

for harvest is estimated at a record 73.3 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 3 percent from 1998. 

All cotton production is forecast at 17.5 million 480-pound bales, down 4 percent from last month, but up

26 percent from 1998. If realized, this would be the eighth largest cotton crop on record. Based on

September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 621 pounds per harvested acre, down 28 pounds from

last month. Condition of the cotton crop has deteriorated since last month in most of the cotton-producing

States. Dry soils and above normal temperatures have stressed dryland cotton. Harvested acreage, at

13.6 million acres, reflects an increase of 30,000 acres in Louisiana from last month.

All wheat production is placed at 2.31 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the August forecast and

down 10 percent from 1998. The U.S. yield is forecast at 42.3 bushels per acre. This is down 0.3 bushels

from last month.

-Special NoteNASS PROGRAM CHANGES: The National Agricultural Statistics Service has completed a preliminary

review of it's statistical program to make sure it best meets the needs of data users in the future. These

changes are documented at the following web site:

http://www.usda.gov/nass/events/events.htm

This site can be reached through the NASS home page by clicking on "Coming Events and News" under

AGENCY INFORMATION. The proposed program changes are the first subject. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 2 NASS, USDA

Other spring wheat production is forecast at 508 million bushels, down 1 percent from last month and down

4 percent from last season. The final forecast of U.S. average yield is 33.9 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels per

acre lower than a month ago. Hard Red Spring production is down 1 percent from August to 455 million

bushels because yields declined in Montana and South Dakota. Heat was the factor in both States. The South

Dakota harvest is finished. Better Idaho yields have White Spring production up 1 percent to 52.5 million

bushels.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 110 million bushels, down 3 percent from last month and 22 percent

less than 1998. The U.S. yield is now forecast at 28.3 bushels per acre, down 0.9 bushels from August 1.

North Dakota’s crop is maturing slowly; only 19 percent was combined as of August 29.

California Navel Oranges: Production for 1999-00 is forecast at 40.0 million boxes, up 90 percent from last

season’s freeze damaged production of 21.0 million boxes, but down 9 percent from 1997-98 production. 

This initial forecast of the 1999-00 season is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in the

California Central Valley. The new crop navel oranges are maturing well. Sizes are slightly below the

average of the last 12 non-freeze years.

This report was approved on September 10, 1999.

Secretary of

Agriculture

Dan Glickman

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

August Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Barley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Corn for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Corn Plant Populations Per Acre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Fruits and Nuts Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Nuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Peanuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Rice, by Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Sorghum for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Soybean Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Spring Wheat Head Populations per Square Foot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Wheat, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Other Spring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Wheat, by Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 4 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AZ 1

AR 1

CA

CO

CT 2

DE

FL 1

GA

ID 1

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA 1

ME 2

MD

MA 2

MI

MN

MS 1

MO

MT 1

NE

NH 2

NJ 1

NM 1

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK 1

OR 1

PA

RI 2

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT 1

VT 2

VA

WA 1

WV 1

WI

WY 1

US

200

30

215

260

1,070

155

55

265

52

10,450

5,550

12,200

2,850

1,180

540

400

2,050

6,750

500

2,500

18

8,550

98

85

580

770

825

3,340

220

33

1,050

275

3,550

620

1,850

24

300

100

34

2,950

60

72,604

210

30

135

235

1,130

154

40

260

55

10,650

5,750

11,800

2,800

1,240

410

400

1,900

6,700

320

2,600

19

8,250

60

90

590

670

810

3,100

310

35

1,030

260

3,250

560

1,730

22

320

140

35

2,800

55

70,955

63.0

175.0

100.0

160.0

145.0

100.0

62.0

85.0

150.0

141.0

137.0

145.0

147.0

115.0

81.0

109.0

111.0

153.0

86.0

114.0

115.0

145.0

92.0

165.0

114.0

70.0

107.0

141.0

130.0

190.0

111.0

40.0

121.0

96.0

100.0

141.0

84.0

190.0

80.0

137.0

127.0

134.4

96.0

190.0

125.0

185.0

146.0

92.0

88.0

90.0

155.0

140.0

130.0

151.0

139.0

105.0

127.0

90.0

127.0

150.0

110.0

103.0

135.0

141.0

40.0

170.0

105.0

90.0

102.0

131.0

135.0

190.0

72.0

68.0

120.0

105.0

135.0

143.0

80.0

195.0

65.0

143.0

130.0

134.7

100.0

190.0

125.0

185.0

146.0

84.0

88.0

97.0

155.0

140.0

128.0

151.0

142.0

98.0

127.0

85.0

127.0

142.0

110.0

95.0

135.0

138.0

40.0

170.0

102.0

90.0

107.0

125.0

135.0

190.0

72.0

70.0

105.0

98.0

135.0

143.0

80.0

195.0

65.0

143.0

130.0

132.2

12,600

5,250

21,500

41,600

155,150

15,500

3,410

22,525

7,800

1,473,450

760,350

1,769,000

418,950

135,700

43,740

43,600

227,550

1,032,750

43,000

285,000

2,070

1,239,750

9,016

14,025

66,120

53,900

88,275

470,940

28,600

6,270

116,550

11,000

429,550

59,520

185,000

3,384

25,200

19,000

2,720

404,150

7,620

9,761,085

21,000

5,700

16,875

43,475

164,980

12,936

3,520

25,220

8,525

1,491,000

736,000

1,781,800

397,600

121,520

52,070

34,000

241,300

951,400

35,200

247,000

2,565

1,138,500

2,400

15,300

60,180

60,300

86,670

387,500

41,850

6,650

74,160

18,200

341,250

54,880

233,550

3,146

25,600

27,300

2,275

400,400

7,150

9,380,947 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2 Not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 5 NASS, USDA

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL 1

AR

CO

GA 1

IL

KS

KY 1

LA

MS

MO

NE

NM

NC 1

OK

SC 1

SD

TN 1

TX

US

6

130

185

30

107

3,300

8

125

36

320

600

65

12

340

3

140

16

2,300

7,723

8

115

200

30

97

3,400

7

250

56

310

450

135

11

400

4

110

16

2,900

8,499

45.0

53.0

57.0

38.0

74.0

80.0

80.0

60.0

65.0

83.0

94.0

45.0

45.0

45.0

35.0

71.0

70.0

46.0

67.3

50.0

75.0

52.0

50.0

80.0

73.0

80.0

75.0

75.0

74.0

90.0

55.0

57.0

49.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

65.0

69.2

50.0

72.0

52.0

50.0

77.0

73.0

80.0

80.0

85.0

70.0

85.0

55.0

57.0

50.0

45.0

58.0

75.0

63.0

68.2

270

6,890

10,545

1,140

7,918

264,000

640

7,500

2,340

26,560

56,400

2,925

540

15,300

105

9,940

1,120

105,800

519,933

400

8,280

10,400

1,500

7,469

248,200

560

20,000

4,760

21,700

38,250

7,425

627

20,000

180

6,380

1,200

182,700

580,031 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 6 NASS, USDA

Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AZ 1

CA 1

CO

DE 1

ID

KS 1

KY 1

MD 1

MI 1

MN

MT

NE 1

NV 1

NJ 1

NC 1

ND

OK 1

OR

PA 1

SC 1

SD

TX 1

UT

VA 1

WA

WI

WY

US

56

125

82

30

760

8

7

54

26

415

1,200

8

4

4

20

1,930

5

130

75

3

95

5

85

70

520

65

85

5,867

62

130

88

26

690

14

8

50

21

185

1,150

4

4

4

19

1,300

3

135

70

2

74

10

85

60

490

65

85

4,834

110.0

60.0

115.0

60.0

78.0

35.0

63.0

64.0

50.0

55.0

48.0

50.0

100.0

58.0

57.0

55.0

47.0

62.0

67.0

47.0

48.0

43.0

83.0

61.0

65.0

52.0

86.0

60.1

114.0

60.0

108.0

82.0

74.0

29.0

86.0

80.0

60.0

52.0

46.0

41.0

95.0

71.0

75.0

50.0

39.0

67.0

70.0

60.0

48.0

46.0

80.0

84.0

55.0

52.0

86.0

58.2

114.0

60.0

108.0

82.0

76.0

29.0

86.0

80.0

60.0

52.0

46.0

41.0

95.0

71.0

75.0

49.0

39.0

60.0

70.0

60.0

48.0

46.0

80.0

84.0

59.0

50.0

89.0

58.5

6,160

7,500

9,430

1,800

59,280

280

441

3,456

1,300

22,825

57,600

400

400

232

1,140

106,150

235

8,060

5,025

141

4,560

215

7,055

4,270

33,800

3,380

7,310

352,445

7,068

7,800

9,504

2,132

52,440

406

688

4,000

1,260

9,620

52,900

164

380

284

1,425

63,700

117

8,100

4,900

120

3,552

460

6,800

5,040

28,910

3,250

7,565

282,585 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 7 NASS, USDA

All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL 1

AZ 1

AR 1

CA 1

CO 1

DE 1

FL 1

GA 1

ID

IL 1

IN 1

IA 1

KS 1

KY 1

LA 1

MD 1

MI 1

MN

MS 1

MO 1

MT

NE 1

NV 1

NJ 1

NM 1

NY 1

NC 1

ND

OH 1

OK 1

OR 1

PA 1

SC 1

SD

TN 1

TX 1

UT 1

VA 1

WA

WV 1

WI 1

WY 1

US

85

152

900

555

2,610

73

13

240

1,280

1,200

650

32

10,100

550

90

215

570

1,982

150

1,250

5,280

1,800

14

44

265

130

680

9,610

1,160

5,100

885

190

240

3,294

370

3,900

173

245

2,565

8

142

210

59,002

100

83

870

455

2,452

73

9

225

1,350

1,020

510

34

9,200

430

110

200

600

2,218

165

920

5,410

1,850

15

35

270

125

580

8,948

1,030

4,300

783

190

220

2,949

310

3,400

174

240

2,290

8

127

189

54,467

42.0

104.2

51.0

69.5

39.7

51.0

43.0

43.0

80.0

48.0

55.0

40.0

49.0

45.0

44.0

50.0

54.0

40.6

45.0

46.0

32.0

46.0

88.6

52.0

30.0

54.0

41.0

32.3

64.0

39.0

65.0

51.0

32.0

36.7

41.0

35.0

51.1

45.0

61.4

57.0

53.8

32.3

43.2

48.0

94.6

56.0

79.7

42.6

60.0

40.0

44.0

74.5

61.0

66.0

43.0

46.0

60.0

47.0

60.0

67.0

39.7

50.0

51.0

30.0

48.0

98.3

54.0

35.0

54.0

49.0

28.6

70.0

35.0

48.0

52.0

41.0

39.6

57.0

36.0

53.3

58.0

53.7

50.0

55.5

34.1

42.5

48.0

94.6

56.0

79.7

42.6

60.0

40.0

44.0

75.4

61.0

66.0

43.0

46.0

60.0

47.0

60.0

67.0

39.7

50.0

51.0

29.2

48.0

98.3

54.0

35.0

54.0

49.0

28.2

70.0

35.0

48.0

52.0

41.0

39.0

57.0

36.0

53.3

58.0

53.7

50.0

55.5

34.1

42.3

3,570

15,840

45,900

38,550

103,710

3,723

559

10,320

102,410

57,600

35,750

1,280

494,900

24,750

3,960

10,750

30,780

80,444

6,750

57,500

168,790

82,800

1,240

2,288

7,950

7,020

27,880

310,650

74,240

198,900

57,490

9,690

7,680

120,884

15,170

136,500

8,834

11,025

157,425

456

7,635

6,790

2,550,383

4,800

7,853

48,720

36,250

104,440

4,380

360

9,900

101,820

62,220

33,660

1,462

423,200

25,800

5,170

12,000

40,200

87,994

8,250

46,920

158,100

88,800

1,475

1,890

9,450

6,750

28,420

252,180

72,100

150,500

37,602

9,880

9,020

115,035

17,670

122,400

9,280

13,920

122,900

400

7,050

6,450

2,306,671 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 8 NASS, USDA

Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AZ 1

CA 1

MN

MT

ND

SD

US

144

175

5

430

2,950

24

3,728

75

85

9

390

3,300

39

3,898

105.0

90.0

37.0

28.0

33.0

26.0

37.8

95.0

100.0

38.0

28.0

26.0

28.0

29.2

95.0

100.0

38.0

28.0

25.0

25.0

28.3

15,120

15,750

185

12,040

97,350

624

141,069

7,125

8,500

342

10,920

82,500

975

110,362 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

CO 1

ID

MN

MT

NV 1

ND

OR 1

SD

UT 1

WA

WI 1

WY 1

US

60

510

1,920

3,600

8

6,600

95

1,850

23

465

7

10

15,148

52

640

2,150

4,050

5

5,600

153

1,650

29

620

7

4

14,960

71.0

77.0

41.0

30.0

80.0

32.0

48.0

32.0

58.0

45.0

30.0

39.0

34.9

70.0

75.0

40.0

28.0

95.0

30.0

44.0

35.0

60.0

42.0

30.0

40.0

34.2

70.0

77.0

40.0

27.0

95.0

30.0

44.0

34.0

60.0

42.0

30.0

40.0

33.9

4,260

39,270

78,720

108,000

640

211,200

4,560

59,200

1,334

20,925

210

390

528,709

3,640

49,280

86,000

109,350

475

168,000

6,732

56,100

1,740

26,040

210

160

507,727 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1997-98

and Forecast September 1, 1999 1

Year

Winter Spring

Hard Total

Red

Soft

Red White HardRed White Durum

1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

1997

1998

1999

1,098,303

1,182,092

1,042,322

471,987

442,639

450,602

275,238

255,874

195,658

491,324

486,781

455,231

56,831

41,928

52,496

87,783

141,069

110,362

2,481,466

2,550,383

2,306,671 1 Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual

situations dictate, the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Washington Wheat

Variety Survey indicates winter wheat is 93 percent White.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 9 NASS, USDA

Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO 1

TX

US

1,525

478

620

268

143

283

3,317

1,640

568

625

298

155

269

3,555

5,800

6,840

4,530

5,800

5,200

5,600

5,669

5,900

7,700

4,900

5,800

5,100

6,300

5,993

5,850

7,700

4,850

5,800

5,100

6,300

5,967

88,420

32,698

28,107

15,544

7,436

15,846

188,051

95,940

43,736

30,313

17,284

7,905

16,947

212,125 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,

1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

1997

1998

1999 1

124,485

141,624

150,723

57,091

44,453

57,623

1,416

1,974

3,779

182,992

188,051

212,125 1 Indicated September 1, 1999, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are

adjusted as data become available through the growing season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 10 NASS, USDA

Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

DE

FL 1

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ 1

NY 2

NC

ND

OH

OK 1

PA 1

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WI

US

320

3,400

216

30

220

10,650

5,600

10,450

2,500

1,200

1,070

460

1,890

6,800

2,000

5,000

3,750

113

97

1,415

1,525

4,390

340

395

500

3,420

1,210

270

480

1,100

70,811

230

3,450

201

19

215

10,750

5,680

10,850

2,650

1,180

1,010

450

1,990

6,900

1,950

5,350

4,300

108

108

1,390

1,480

4,680

480

360

490

3,860

1,100

320

460

1,250

73,261

22.0

25.0

33.0

23.0

21.0

44.0

42.0

48.0

30.0

30.0

21.0

31.0

39.0

42.0

24.0

34.0

44.0

28.0

41.0

27.0

32.0

44.0

18.0

40.0

21.0

39.0

29.0

22.0

23.0

47.0

38.9

29.0

29.0

28.0

30.0

23.0

43.0

41.0

48.0

32.0

27.0

30.0

26.0

40.0

42.0

27.0

34.0

44.0

22.0

40.0

27.0

31.0

42.0

26.0

28.0

24.0

39.0

30.0

30.0

24.0

47.0

39.2

18.0

28.0

26.0

30.0

20.0

43.0

40.0

50.0

27.0

21.0

25.0

26.0

40.0

41.0

25.0

29.0

44.0

22.0

40.0

27.0

34.0

39.0

26.0

28.0

21.0

35.0

20.0

31.0

24.0

47.0

37.9

7,040

85,000

7,128

690

4,620

468,600

235,200

501,600

75,000

36,000

22,470

14,260

73,710

285,600

48,000

170,000

165,000

3,164

3,977

38,205

48,800

193,160

6,120

15,800

10,500

133,380

35,090

5,940

11,040

51,700

2,756,794

4,140

96,600

5,226

570

4,300

462,250

227,200

542,500

71,550

24,780

25,250

11,700

79,600

282,900

48,750

155,150

189,200

2,376

4,320

37,530

50,320

182,520

12,480

10,080

10,290

135,100

22,000

9,920

11,040

58,750

2,778,392 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2 NY included beginning with the 1998 crop year.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 11 NASS, USDA

Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

AL

FL

GA

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

197.0

90.0

537.0

22.0

124.5

75.0

11.5

335.0

75.0

1,467.0

198.0

88.0

538.0

19.0

125.0

78.0

11.5

315.0

75.0

1,447.5

2,195

2,590

2,815

2,820

3,190

2,130

2,450

2,740

2,950

2,702

2,200

2,700

2,600

2,600

2,800

2,600

2,900

2,900

3,000

2,657

2,200

2,600

2,600

2,600

2,900

2,600

2,900

2,900

3,000

2,660

432,415

233,100

1,511,655

62,040

397,155

159,750

28,175

917,900

221,250

3,963,440

435,600

228,800

1,398,800

49,400

362,500

202,800

33,350

913,500

225,000

3,849,750 1 Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Production

1997 1998 1999 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 6,934.6 5,365.4 6,613.0

1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 12 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

1998 1999 1998

1999

1998 1999

Aug 1 Sep 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL 3

 GA

 KS 3

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM 3

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL 3

 GA

 KS 3

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA 3

 US

475.0

248.0

900.0

620.0

80.0

1,280.0

16.5

525.0

940.0

357.0

60.3

705.0

120.0

286.0

445.0

3,300.0

91.0

10,448.8

15.5

180.0

7.3

32.0

234.8

475.0

263.5

900.0

800.0

80.0

1,280.0

16.5

525.0

940.0

357.0

67.6

705.0

120.0

286.0

445.0

3,332.0

91.0

10,683.6

560.0

239.0

930.0

585.0

88.0

1,450.0

28.0

595.0

1,180.0

445.0

67.0

870.0

190.0

315.0

595.0

5,000.0

109.0

13,246.0

11.2

259.0

7.0

39.0

316.2

560.0

250.2

930.0

844.0

88.0

1,450.0

28.0

595.0

1,180.0

445.0

74.0

870.0

190.0

315.0

595.0

5,039.0

109.0

13,562.2

559

1,177

645

887

489

578

404

586

737

471

640

699

560

587

589

524

765

619

830

941

658

791

904

559

1,156

645

899

489

578

404

586

737

471

642

699

560

587

589

526

765

625

711

1,115

743

1,067

524

629

411

697

773

593

716

687

531

686

589

509

819

641

776

1,075

651

738

1,013

711

1,099

743

1,069

524

629

411

697

773

593

710

687

531

686

589

511

819

649

583

1,155

697

1,190

524

596

411

686

716

561

716

687

531

549

516

480

819

610

814

1,112

651

738

1,045

583

1,140

697

1,166

524

596

411

686

716

561

710

687

531

549

516

482

819

621

553.0

608.0

1,209.0

1,146.0

81.5

1,542.0

13.9

641.0

1,444.0

350.0

80.4

1,026.0

140.0

350.0

546.0

3,600.0

145.1

13,475.9

26.8

352.8

10.0

52.7

442.3

553.0

634.8

1,209.0

1,498.8

81.5

1,542.0

13.9

641.0

1,444.0

350.0

90.4

1,026.0

140.0

350.0

546.0

3,652.7

145.1

13,918.2

680.0

575.0

1,350.0

1,450.0

96.0

1,800.0

24.0

850.0

1,760.0

520.0

100.0

1,245.0

210.0

360.0

640.0

5,000.0

186.0

16,846.0

19.0

600.0

9.5

60.0

688.5

680.0

594.0

1,350.0

2,050.0

96.0

1,800.0

24.0

850.0

1,760.0

520.0

109.5

1,245.0

210.0

360.0

640.0

5,060.0

186.0

17,534.5 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 13 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 1997-99

Seasonal

Group and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter 1

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring 1

 AL

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

Summer

 AL

 CA

 CO

 DE

 IL

 IA

 MD

 MO

 NE

 NJ

 NM

 NC

 TX

 VA

 Total

7.0

8.5

15.5

1.8

8.1

18.5

35.8

25.5

10.3

18.0

10.8

93.0

4.4

6.2

7.7

4.6

5.8

1.4

4.6

9.6

4.5

2.7

4.3

1.1

9.1

7.0

73.0

7.8

10.1

17.9

1.7

9.4

19.5

29.8

22.5

7.3

17.0

10.3

87.7

3.5

6.7

7.9

4.3

4.9

1.0

4.8

8.0

4.9

2.6

4.3

1.0

8.6

6.5

69.0

7.0

8.0

15.0

1.7

8.1

18.5

34.5

24.5

10.0

17.5

10.3

90.6

4.3

6.1

7.5

4.6

4.9

1.3

4.6

8.8

4.4

2.6

3.7

1.1

8.2

6.0

68.1

7.8

9.9

17.7

1.6

9.4

19.5

29.0

22.0

7.0

16.5

9.8

85.8

2.8

6.7

7.7

4.3

4.7

0.9

4.8

6.3

4.5

2.4

4.3

1.0

8.0

6.0

64.4

220

180

199

130

280

335

213

235

160

190

170

233

130

355

350

220

290

235

235

215

365

270

260

95

380

230

278

210

200

204

175

290

365

261

280

200

195

235

270

220

360

345

250

300

185

220

305

320

235

290

90

370

165

289

1,540

1,440

2,980

221

2,268

6,198

7,358

5,758

1,600

3,325

1,751

21,121

559

2,166

2,625

1,012

1,421

306

1,081

1,892

1,606

702

962

105

3,116

1,380

18,933

1,638

1,980

3,618

280

2,726

7,118

7,560

6,160

1,400

3,218

2,303

23,205

616

2,412

2,657

1,075

1,410

167

1,056

1,922

1,440

564

1,247

90

2,960

990

18,606

See footnotes at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 14 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 1997-99 (continued)

Seasonal

Group and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Fall 2

 CA

 CO

 ID

 10 SW Co

 Other ID

 IN

 ME

 MA

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NV

 NM

 NY

 ND

 OH

 OR

 Malheur

 Other OR

 PA

 RI

 SD

 UT

 WA

 WI

 WY

 Total

US

10.3

75.8

410.0

28.0

382.0

5.3

65.5

2.9

47.0

82.0

10.6

22.0

7.0

6.2

27.6

126.0

5.1

59.0

11.5

47.5

14.5

0.7

5.0

2.7

165.0

84.5

0.4

1,235.1

1,416.6

9.8

77.2

400.0

26.0

374.0

5.2

68.0

3.0

48.0

70.0

11.0

21.6

5.0

6.6

26.0

125.0

4.8

58.0

10.5

47.5

14.5

0.7

3.5

2.0

170.0

86.0

0.5

1,216.4

1,391.0

10.3

75.7

408.0

28.0

380.0

5.0

64.5

2.9

46.5

73.0

10.6

21.8

7.0

5.9

27.0

122.0

4.8

58.0

11.4

46.6

14.0

0.7

4.8

2.6

165.0

83.5

0.4

1,214.0

1,387.7

9.8

77.0

398.0

26.0

372.0

4.9

67.0

3.0

47.5

65.0

11.0

21.4

5.0

6.6

25.5

121.0

4.6

57.5

10.5

47.0

14.0

0.7

3.3

2.0

170.0

85.0

0.5

1,200.3

1,368.2

360

335

338

450

330

320

280

235

315

290

300

375

400

380

270

235

250

452

400

465

240

210

260

280

565

370

300

356

343

3,708

25,360

138,000

12,600

125,400

1,600

18,060

682

14,648

21,170

3,180

8,175

2,800

2,242

7,290

28,670

1,200

26,229

4,560

21,669

3,360

147

1,248

728

93,225

30,895

120

432,737

475,771 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2 The forecast of fall potato production will be released November 10, 1999.

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

CT 1

FL

GA

IN

KY

MD

MA 1

MO 1

NC

OH

PA

SC

TN

VA

WV 1

WI

US

2,815

6,800

41,000

8,500

226,260

6,500

1,265

2,700

251,100

9,800

7,800

45,000

59,415

45,000

1,600

2,100

717,655

3,030

6,000

35,000

6,500

226,350

6,500

1,250

2,300

218,400

9,800

6,200

39,000

59,160

38,600

1,700

1,320

661,110

1,519

2,515

2,200

2,000

1,961

1,400

1,413

2,130

2,197

1,830

2,015

2,050

1,870

2,131

1,350

1,687

2,061

1,630

2,600

1,900

2,000

1,773

1,350

1,750

1,950

2,245

1,620

1,717

2,150

1,809

2,120

1,300

2,114

1,984

4,128

19,053

89,225

18,690

497,928

12,000

1,913

7,035

731,199

22,230

17,020

126,360

114,292

117,576

3,060

5,690

1,787,399

4,276

17,102

90,200

17,000

443,628

9,100

1,788

5,751

551,730

17,934

15,720

92,250

111,100

95,898

2,160

3,542

1,479,179

4,939

15,600

66,500

13,000

401,408

8,775

2,187

4,485

490,320

15,876

10,646

83,850

107,022

81,835

2,210

2,790

1,311,443 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 15 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,

State, and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured

 Type 11, Old Belts

 NC

 VA

 US

 Type 12, Eastern NC

 Belt

 NC

 Type 13, NC Border &

 SC Belt

 NC

 SC

 US

 Type 14, GA-FL Belt

 FL

 GA

 US

 Total 11-14

Class 2, Fire-cured

 Type 21, VA Belt

 VA

 Type 22, Eastern

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 23, Western

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Total 21-23

Class 3, Air-cured

 Class 3A, Light

 Air-cured

 Type 31, Burley

 IN

 KY

 MO 1

 NC

 OH

 TN

 VA

 WV 1

 US

 Type 32, Southern MD

 Belt

 MD

 PA

 US

 Total 31-32

69,000

33,000

102,000

143,000

31,000

45,000

76,000

6,800

41,000

47,800

368,800

1,500

3,850

7,300

11,150

3,600

590

4,190

16,840

8,500

215,000

2,700

8,100

9,800

51,000

10,400

1,600

307,100

6,500

3,300

9,800

316,900

60,000

26,000

86,000

123,000

27,000

39,000

66,000

6,000

35,000

41,000

316,000

1,500

3,650

7,000

10,650

3,450

560

4,010

16,160

6,500

215,000

2,300

8,400

9,800

51,000

11,000

1,700

305,700

6,500

3,000

9,500

315,200

2,285

2,220

2,264

2,240

2,000

2,050

2,030

2,515

2,200

2,245

2,204

1,560

2,315

2,330

2,325

2,805

2,500

2,762

2,365

2,000

1,935

2,130

1,450

1,830

1,795

1,940

1,350

1,896

1,400

1,900

1,568

1,886

2,250

2,200

2,235

2,300

2,200

2,150

2,170

2,600

1,900

2,002

2,217

1,650

2,100

2,200

2,166

2,400

2,200

2,372

2,169

2,000

1,750

1,950

1,550

1,620

1,750

2,000

1,300

1,754

1,350

1,650

1,445

1,744

157,665

73,260

230,925

320,320

62,000

92,250

154,250

17,102

90,200

107,302

812,797

2,340

8,913

17,009

25,922

10,098

1,475

11,573

39,835

17,000

416,025

5,751

11,745

17,934

91,545

20,176

2,160

582,336

9,100

6,270

15,370

597,706

135,000

57,200

192,200

282,900

59,400

83,850

143,250

15,600

66,500

82,100

700,450

2,475

7,665

15,400

23,065

8,280

1,232

9,512

35,052

13,000

376,250

4,485

13,020

15,876

89,250

22,000

2,210

536,091

8,775

4,950

13,725

549,816

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 16 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,

and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 (continued)

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999 1998 1999

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 3, Air-cured

Class 3B, Dark

 Air-cured

 Type 35, One Sucker

 Belt

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 36, Green River

 Belt

 KY

 Type 37, VA Sun-cured

 Belt

 VA

 Total 35-37

Class 4, Cigar Filler

 Type 41, PA Seedleaf

 PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder

 Class 5A, CT Valley

 Binder

 Type 51, CT Valley

 Broadleaf

 CT 1

 MA 1

 US

 Class 5B, WI Binder

 Type 54, Southern WI

 WI

 Type 55, Northern WI

 WI

 Total 54-55

 Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper

 Type 61, CT Valley

 Shade-grown

 CT 1

 MA 1

 US

All Cigar Types

 Total 41-61

All Tobacco

2,450

525

2,975

1,360

100

4,435

4,500

1,435

925

2,360

1,500

600

2,100

4,460

1,380

340

1,720

10,680

717,655

2,750

600

3,350

1,500

100

4,950

3,200

1,480

870

2,350

940

380

1,320

3,670

1,550

380

1,930

8,800

661,110

2,280

2,040

2,238

2,210

1,220

2,206

2,100

1,600

1,445

1,539

1,735

1,565

1,687

1,609

1,435

1,325

1,413

1,784

2,061

2,150

1,900

2,105

2,200

1,600

2,124

1,780

1,740

1,815

1,768

2,200

1,900

2,114

1,892

1,525

1,600

1,540

1,774

1,984

5,586

1,071

6,657

3,006

122

9,785

9,450

2,296

1,337

3,633

2,603

939

3,542

7,175

1,980

451

2,431

19,056

1,479,179

5,913

1,140

7,053

3,300

160

10,513

5,696

2,575

1,579

4,154

2,068

722

2,790

6,944

2,364

608

2,972

15,612

1,311,443 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 17 NASS, USDA

Oranges: Utilized Production by State and United States,

1997-98, 1998-99 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 1 2 3

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00

1,000 Boxes 1,000 Boxes 1,000 Boxes 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Early Mid &

 Navel 4

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

350

44,000

140,000

1,350

185,700

650

25,000

104,000

175

129,825

1,000

69,000

244,000

1,525

315,525

550

21,000

112,000

1,250

134,800

600

17,000

73,700

180

91,480

1,150

38,000

185,700

1,430

226,280

40,000

13

1,650

6,300

57

8,020

25

938

4,680

7

5,650

38

2,588

10,980

64

13,670

21

787

5,040

53

5,901

22

638

3,317

8

3,985

43

1,425

8,357

61

9,886

1,500

1 1997-98 and 1998-99 revised. Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit totals will be released September 23, 1999, in "Citrus

Fruits, 1999 Summary". 2 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 3 Net lbs. per box: AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85. 4 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX.

Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and

United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 1

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

CA

CO

ID

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM 2

ND

OH

OR

TX 2

WA

WY

US

100.0

57.3

203.0

173.0

458.0

62.4

47.4

242.6

1.1

17.7

35.8

53.4

1,451.7

105.0

68.0

210.0

187.0

469.0

61.8

66.8

253.0

1.2

19.7

27.0

57.0

1,525.5

28.3

22.7

27.1

16.0

21.2

22.6

19.7

22.2

17.3

26.6

33.3

20.3

22.5

31.0

21.6

25.3

19.0

20.0

23.5

19.8

21.0

18.5

25.0

31.8

21.0

22.0

2,970

1,308

5,210

3,040

8,251

1,224

1,013

49

4,205

17

494

270

595

1,240

29,886

2,830

1,301

5,501

2,768

9,710

1,410

934

5,386

19

471

1,192

1,084

32,606

3,255

1,469

5,313

3,553

9,380

1,452

1,323

5,313

22

493

859

1,197

33,629 1 Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA. 2 No acres planted in 1998 or 1999.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 18 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

1998 1999 1998 1999 1997 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

FL

HI

LA

TX

US

447.0

32.5

435.0

32.6

947.1

456.0

35.0

465.0

31.5

987.5

40.1

86.1

29.7

32.6

36.6

39.0

84.0

33.0

32.0

37.5

16,236

3,009

11,562

902

31,709

17,925

2,798

12,920

1,064

34,707

17,784

2,940

15,345

1,008

37,077 1 Net tons.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1998-99

Month

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested 1998 1999

1998 1999 1998 1999

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jul

Aug

3,670

3,650

3,490

3,515

2,440

2,420

2,030

2,025

3,095

2,785

3,250

3,500

Nuts: Utilized Production, In-shell Basis, by Crop and State,

1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999

Crop and State

Utilized Production

1997 1998 1999

Tons Tons Tons

Hazelnuts

 OR

 WA

 Total

Walnuts

 CA

46,850

150

47,000

269,000

15,400

100

15,500

227,000

37,700

300

38,000

280,000

1,000 Pounds

Pistachios

 CA 180,000 188,000 110,000
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 19 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 1998 1999

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

6,340.0

80,187.0

4,902.0

3,345.0

1,571.0

9,626.0

65,871.0

46,449.0

3,805.0

15,617.0

1,127.0

336.0

98.9

1,521.0

4.8

303.0

72,375.0

3,553.0

13,392.5

13,064.3

328.2

1,498.8

9.0

2,010.1

323.4

162.0

1,416.6

15.5

93.0

73.0

1,235.1

87.2

5,167.0

77,611.0

4,698.0

3,600.0

1,573.0

9,299.0

62,733.0

43,419.0

4,015.0

15,299.0

1,095.0

341.0

59.7

1,468.0

3.5

313.0

74,145.0

3,676.0

14,601.2

14,283.0

318.2

1,560.6

1,992.6

1,391.0

17.9

87.7

69.0

1,216.4

88.1

5,867.0

72,604.0

5,919.0

60,016.0

23,642.0

36,374.0

2,765.0

3,317.0

418.0

7,723.0

305.0

59,002.0

40,126.0

3,728.0

15,148.0

1,092.0

329.0

95.6

1,467.0

4.7

285.0

70,811.0

3,476.0

10,683.6

10,448.8

234.8

1,451.7

947.1

717.7

7.4

1,913.9

309.1

158.5

6.1

0.4

36.6

124.0

1,387.7

15.0

90.6

68.1

1,214.0

27.4

83.8

0.5

4,834.0

70,955.0

62,051.0

23,968.0

38,083.0

2,631.0

3,555.0

396.0

8,499.0

54,467.0

35,609.0

3,898.0

14,960.0

1,067.0

334.0

58.2

1,447.5

3.5

294.0

73,261.0

3,593.0

13,562.2

13,246.0

316.2

1,525.5

987.5

661.1

1,903.0

0.4

34.2

1,368.2

17.7

85.8

64.4

1,200.3

85.2

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1999 crop year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 20 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3 4

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

60.1

134.4

16.0

2.52

3.47

1.91

60.4

5,669

28.2

67.3

11.4

43.2

46.9

37.8

34.9

1,455

20.4

855

2,702

1,353

1,446

38.9

1,509

625

619

904

22.5

36.6

2,061

1,405

1,611

1,920

1,223

1,560

50,000

1,625

78

343

199

233

278

356

109

148

58.5

132.2

2.59

3.47

2.04

61.6

5,967

68.2

42.3

47.4

28.3

33.9

2,660

37.9

621

610

1,045

22.0

37.5

1,984

1,656

46,000

1,813

204

270

289

352,445

9,761,085

94,525

151,338

82,010

69,328

167,122

188,051

11,795

519,933

3,487

2,550,383

1,880,605

141,069

528,709

1,588,620

5,365

6,708

81,750

3,963,440

6,360

412,085

2,756,794

5,246,701

13,918.2

13,475.9

442.3

32,606

34,707

1,479,179

104

30,828

5,934

1,938

674

9,500

18,000

59,548

9,727

475,771

2,980

21,121

18,933

432,737

2,987

12,382

6,000

282,585

9,380,947

160,769

83,160

77,609

162,096

212,125

580,031

2,306,671

1,688,582

110,362

507,727

6,613

3,849,750

2,778,392

17,534.5

16,846.0

688.5

33,629

37,077

1,311,443

31,506

16,100

62,080

3,618

23,205

18,606

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1999 crop year. 2

 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated. 4 Revised from Crop Production released May 12, 1999.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 21 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

1997 1998 1999

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans 4

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lb

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

1,000 Gal

2,885

7

962

12,692

178

425

108

10,323.8

139.2

13,700.0

7,290.9

104.0

38,800.0

2,624.6

1,042.5

214.0

25.5

759,000

47.0

335,000

180,000

269.0

1,298

2,626

2

935

13,670

128

360

101

11,387.4

118.3

21,000.0

5,903.0

90.0

39,900.0

2,429.3

955.1

108.0

25.6

520,000

15.5

146,400

188,000

227.0

1,159

2,552

4

817

9,886

115

337

81

10,562.8

130.0

6,556.9

125.0

2,502.1

942.9

180.0

25.1

830,000

38.0

110,000

280.0

1,180 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1999 crop year. 2 Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. 3 Orange production revised. Grapefruit and other citrus fruit revisions will be released on September 23, 1999 in "Citrus Fruits, 1999 Summary". 4 First forecast of 1999 crop will be October 1, 1999.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 22 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 1998 1999

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,565,730

32,450,880

1,983,790

1,353,690

635,770

3,895,550

26,657,330

18,797,450

1,539,850

6,320,040

456,090

135,980

40,020

615,530

1,940

122,620

29,289,440

1,437,860

5,419,810

5,286,990

132,820

606,550

3,640

813,470

130,880

65,560

573,280

6,270

37,640

29,540

499,830

35,290

2,091,030

31,408,400

1,901,230

1,456,880

636,580

3,763,210

25,387,420

17,571,240

1,624,830

6,191,350

443,140

138,000

24,160

594,080

1,420

126,670

30,005,740

1,487,640

5,908,960

5,780,190

128,770

631,560

806,390

562,920

7,240

35,490

27,920

492,260

35,650

2,374,320

29,382,110

2,395,360

24,287,880

9,567,680

14,720,190

1,118,970

1,342,360

169,160

3,125,420

123,430

23,877,520

16,238,590

1,508,680

6,130,240

441,920

133,140

38,690

593,680

1,900

115,340

28,656,500

1,406,700

4,323,550

4,228,520

95,020

587,490

385,060

290,430

2,990

774,540

125,090

64,140

2,470

150

14,830

50,180

561,590

6,070

36,660

27,560

491,290

11,090

33,910

200

1,956,270

28,714,780

25,111,420

9,699,610

15,411,810

1,064,740

1,438,670

160,260

3,439,460

22,042,250

14,410,610

1,577,480

6,054,160

431,800

135,170

23,550

585,790

1,420

118,980

29,647,990

1,454,050

5,488,490

5,360,520

127,960

617,350

399,630

267,540

770,130

140

13,860

553,700

7,160

34,720

26,060

485,750

34,480

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1999 crop year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not

harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 23 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

1998 1999 1998 1999

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.23

8.44

35.80

5.65

7.78

4.27

2.17

6.35

1.77

4.23

25.63

2.91

3.15

2.54

2.35

1.63

1.28

0.96

3.03

1.52

1.62

2.62

1.69

0.70

0.69

1.01

50.35

80.24

2.31

1.58

1.81

2.15

1.37

1.75

56.04

1.82

0.09

38.43

22.27

26.13

31.16

39.95

0.12

16.56

3.15

8.30

5.81

7.78

4.57

2.21

6.69

4.28

2.85

3.19

1.90

2.28

2.98

2.55

0.70

0.68

1.17

49.42

84.17

2.22

1.86

51.56

2.03

22.91

30.31

32.38

7,673,580

247,942,980

85,751,640

137,291,520

74,398,220

62,893,300

2,425,770

8,529,850

299,610

13,206,910

3,163,350

69,410,050

51,181,680

3,839,270

14,389,100

720,590

4,867,410

170,390

37,080

1,797,790

2,880

186,920

75,027,640

2,379,860

3,030,330

2,934,030

96,300

29,579,670

30,895,990

670,940

4,720

1,398,330

269,160

87,910

30,570

4,310

8,160

27,010

4,410

21,580,610

135,170

958,030

858,790

19,628,620

1,350

561,640

2,720

6,152,560

238,287,030

145,847,180

75,441,480

70,405,700

2,352,820

9,621,830

14,733,470

62,777,300

45,955,670

3,003,560

13,818,060

5,999,210

1,746,220

75,615,440

3,817,690

3,667,780

149,900

30,507,720

33,635,690

594,860

1,429,090

7,300

28,160

164,110

1,052,560

843,950

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1999 crop year. 2

 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 24 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

1997 1998 1999

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans 4

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,617,230

6,350

872,710

11,513,990

161,480

385,550

97,980

4,682,800

126,310

6,210

6,614,190

94,350

17,600

1,190,500

945,740

194,140

23,130

344,280

42,640

151,950

81,650

244,030

6,490

2,382,270

1,810

848,220

12,401,220

116,120

326,590

91,630

5,165,240

107,320

9,530

5,355,070

81,650

18,100

1,101,910

866,490

97,980

23,220

235,870

14,060

66,410

85,280

205,930

5,790

2,315,140

3,630

741,170

8,968,430

104,330

305,720

73,480

4,791,210

117,930

5,948,320

113,400

1,134,930

855,380

163,290

22,770

376,480

34,470

49,900

254,010

5,900 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 1999 crop year. 2 Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. 3 Orange production revised. Grapefruit and other citrus fruit revisions will be released on September 23, 1999 in "Citrus Fruits,

1999 Summary". 4 First forecast of 1999 crop will be October 1, 1999.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 25 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Plant Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 major corn producing

states during 1999. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through

harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from

this survey.

Corn for Grain: Plant Population per Acre,

Selected States, 1995-99

State Month 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

MN

NE

OH

WI

Sep

Nov

Sep

Nov

Sep

Nov

Sep

Nov

Sep

Nov

Sep

Nov

Sep

Nov

24,000

23,650

23,900

24,000

24,800

24,650

26,400

26,350

22,600

22,500

23,400

23,300

24,600

24,000

24,350

24,200

23,550

23,500

25,000

24,950

26,500

26,600

22,750

22,700

23,100

22,750

24,800

24,900

25,000

24,900

23,700

23,800

25,700

25,500

26,300

26,600

22,850

22,850

23,450

23,500

24,750

24,800

25,550

25,400

24,350

24,300

25,700

25,600

27,750

27,650

23,350

23,050

25,350

25,450

26,600

25,850

25,750

25,250

25,850

26,750

23,200

25,000

26,050
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 26 NASS, USDA

All Spring Wheat: Head Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in three spring wheat

producing states during 1999. Randomly selected plots in wheat fields are visited monthly from August

through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from

this survey. The final number of heads is determined when the plots are harvested at maturity. These data will

be published in January.

All Spring Wheat: Heads per Square Foot,

Selected States, 1995-99

Crop and State Month 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Number Number Number Number Number

Other Spring

 MN

 MT

 ND

Durum

 ND

Sep

Final

Sep

Final

Sep

Final

Sep

Final

45.6

45.6

30.4

30.4

39.5

39.5

24.8

24.8

41.6

41.6

25.2

25.1

36.0

36.1

24.7

24.7

47.7

47.8

25.8

25.8

37.8

37.7

22.8

22.8

45.8

45.8

29.5

29.5

38.5

38.3

27.5

27.5

49.0

24.5

37.2

22.9
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 27 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Pods with Beans

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 8 soybean producing

States during 1999. Randomly selected plots of soybeans fields are visited monthly from August through

harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet,

Selected States, 1995-99

State Month 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

IL

IN

IA

MN

MO

NE

OH

Sep 1

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

1,755

1,609

1,816

1,764

1,764

1,755

1,677

1,677

1,739

1,611

1,616

1,613

1,501

1,501

895

1,462

1,469

1,404

1,420

1,420

1,790

1,647

1,650

1,521

1,481

1,505

1,573

1,581

1,416

1,470

1,457

1,654

1,463

1,463

1,543

1,487

1,487

1,491

1,688

1,655

1,715

1,514

1,514

1,452

1,378

1,383

2,098

1,956

1,828

1,708

1,708

1,622

1,532

1,532

1,894

1,458

1,461

1,585

1,506

1,506

1,539

1,591

1,650

1,716

1,345

1,342

1,711

1,485

1,467

1,640

1,613

2,087

1,902

1,906

1,883

1,709

1,709

1,914

1,745

1,748

1,598

1,450

1,442

1,847

1,878

1,931

1,849

1,810

1,810

1,887

1,710

1,710

1,917

1,771

2,142

1,612

1,242

1,877

1,699

1 Not available due to plant immaturity.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 28 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting an Objective Yield survey in 12 cotton producing

states during 1999. Randomly selected plots of cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest

to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey for 5

States which accounted for 60 percent of the 1998 U.S. upland cotton production. The remaining 7 States are

new to the Objective Yield survey and do not have 3 years of historical counts available.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September 1995-99, and

November and Final, 1995-98 1

State Month 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

CA

LA

MS

TX

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

Sep

Nov

Final

850

689

689

751

682

680

679

615

615

682

607

607

423

409

415

857

741

741

707

748

744

665

607

607

816

731

729

383

498

498

975

810

811

701

697

697

639

643

643

908

835

833

500

468

458

637

633

640

755

665

655

694

600

600

835

823

821

498

477

482

720

921

722

761

465

1 Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially

opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 29 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 30 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 31 NASS, USDA

August Weather Summary

The extreme heat and dryness that developed in late July from Oklahoma and Texas to the southern Atlantic

Coast persisted through August, stressing pastures and immature summer crops, including cotton and

soybeans. Meanwhile, heat did not return to the Corn Belt after late July, keeping heat stress on Midwestern

corn and soybeans at a minimum. Unfavorably dry weather persisted, however, across the southern and

eastern Corn Belt, particularly in Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley. In contrast, wet conditions prevailed

from the Southwest to the northern Plains and upper Midwest, courtesy of an active monsoon and numerous

cold fronts. Beneficial rain fell in the Northwest, but dry conditions and lightning strikes sparked wildfire

activity in California and the Great Basin. Much-needed rain also fell in the northern Mid-Atlantic region,

tempering the 14-month drought. In the tropics, Bret became the first hurricane to cross the Texas coast this

decade on August 22, arriving as a Category 3 storm (125 mph sustained winds) in sparsely populated

Kenedy County, Texas. Hurricane Dennis, a category 2 storm (100 to 105 mph winds) brushed the coastal

Carolinas on August 29-31, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and beach erosion. Although no tropical

systems affected southern Florida, rainfall was well above normal.

Monthly rainfall was more than 200 percent of normal from the Four Corners region to the central High

Plains, and in a few locations on the northern Plains and interior Northwest. Precipitation was less than

25 percent of normal in many areas from central Texas to the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, in

portions of the Great Basin, and in coastal and southern California.

Monthly temperatures averaged 2 to 5 degrees F above normal from Texas and Oklahoma to the southern

Atlantic Coast. Temperatures were up to 3 degrees F above normal in the northern High Plains and the

Northwest. In contrast, readings averaged as much as 3 degrees F below normal in the Corn Belt and as much

as 5 degrees F below normal in California’s San Joaquin Valley. Near-normal temperatures prevailed in the

Mid-Atlantic region.

General Crop Comments: Mild temperatures eased crop stress in the central and northern Great Plains and

most of the Corn Belt. Timely rains provided adequate moisture for crop development in parts of the central

and western Corn Belt and central Great Plains. Increasing moisture shortages stressed crops in the southern

and eastern Corn Belt and most of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Dry conditions aided small

grain harvest across the Northern States from the Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest and row crop harvest

in the southern States from the Great Plains to the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Field preparations began for

winter wheat seeding, but planting and tillage were delayed while growers waited for rain to recharge soil

moisture supplies. Crop development remained slow in the Southwest due to persistent cool weather.

Corn rapidly entered the silking stage in South Dakota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania early in the month. In

Ohio, 40 percent of the crop entered the dough stage during the first week of the month and was nearly twice

the normal rate on August 15. As mid-month approached, corn in the dough stage rapidly advanced in Iowa,

Nebraska, and South Dakota. Fields quickly progressed to the dent stage along the Ohio River Valley in the

southern Corn Belt, with more than half of the acreage denting in Missouri and Kentucky by August 15. 

After midmonth, acreage entering the dough stage rapidly increased in Colorado, while denting accelerated in

Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Kansas. As of August 29, corn in the dough stage or beyond was at 92 percent,

and 62 percent of the crop was at the dent stage or beyond. Development was about 1 week ahead of the

5-year averages of 81 and 44 percent, respectively. Twelve percent of the crop was mature by the end of the

month, as progress neared 50 percent along the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys in the southern Corn Belt. 

Harvest began in the central and High Plains regions of Texas and was virtually complete in the southern and

coastal regions of the State.

Ninety-six percent of the soybean acreage was blooming by mid-August, slightly ahead of last year and the

average. Acreage entering the blooming stage remained active in the northern Mississippi Delta and lower

Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys after mid-month. Soybeans setting pods advanced well ahead of the

average in the eastern Corn Belt, and slightly ahead of normal in the western Corn Belt. Nearly one-fourth of

the acreage in Indiana and almost one-third of the crop in Ohio began setting pods during the first week of the

month. As mid-month approached, pod setting accelerated in the central and western Corn Belt, advancing

about 25 percentage points in Nebraska and Minnesota and nearly 20 percentage points in Illinois and Kansas

during the second week of the month. Warm weather quickly ripened fields in Kentucky, Mississippi,

Tennessee, and Ohio late in the month. On August 29, more than half of the acreage was dropping leaves in
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 32 NASS, USDA

Mississippi, 34 percentage points ahead of the average. A few isolated fields began dropping leaves in the

western Corn Belt, while ripening accelerated in the eastern and southern Corn Belt.

Above normal temperatures promoted cotton development in the southern Plains, Mississippi Delta, and

Southeast during most of August. Conditions steadily deteriorated throughout the month in most areas, as soil

moisture levels diminished. Isolated showers temporarily boosted conditions along parts of the Gulf Coast

and Atlantic Coastal Plains. Cool weather hindered growth in California most of the month. By August 29,

bolls were opening on 35 percent of the cotton acreage, as warm weather accelerated ripening in Mississippi,

Missouri, and Tennessee. Harvest began in southern Texas and advanced northward into the Blacklands,

Central Texas, and the Upper Coast as the month progressed.

As the month began, winter wheat harvest was nearly complete, while spring wheat and barley harvest gained

momentum. Dry weather aided harvest efforts in the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest, but late

developing fields limited the harvest pace for most of the month. The oat harvest proceeded ahead of normal

in the Corn Belt, but slow crop development and late-month rains delayed progress in Minnesota and North

Dakota. Growers prepared fields for seeding winter wheat in the southern and central Great Plains, but

planting was delayed due to dry soils.

Warm weather promoted rice development in the lower Mississippi Valley as fields rapidly entered the

heading stage in Arkansas and Mississippi. Development lagged in California due to persistent cool weather. 

 In Texas and Louisiana, the harvest began early in the month and remained active as dry weather prevailed

most of the month along the western Gulf Coast. The harvest pace gained momentum in inland areas of the

Mississippi Delta late in the month. As of August 29, the crop was 26 percent harvested. 

Sorghum development proceeded slightly behind normal for most of the month, with 94 percent headed,

53 percent turning color, and 28 percent mature on August 29. Fields rapidly progressed to the heading stage

in New Mexico and South Dakota late in the month. Fields turning color advanced 29 percentage points in

Illinois during the last week in August. Hot weather quickly ripened fields in the southern Great Plains and

lower Mississippi Valley.

Corn for grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 71.0 million acres, unchanged

from last month but down 2 percent from 1998. The September 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record

level stalk count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and

Wisconsin). The September forecasted ears per acre are the highest on record and, if realized, would exceed

the previous record final ears per acre set in 1998. Ear measurements from the sample plots indicate a length

equal to last year and the 5-year average. As of August 29, 62 percent of the acreage was reported dented in

the 17 major States. This compares with 62 percent last year and 44 percent for the 5-year average. Corn

rated in good to excellent condition totaled 57 percent compared to 69 percent for a year ago.

Corn rapidly entered the silking stage in South Dakota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania early in the month. As

mid-month approached, corn in the dough stage rapidly advanced in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota. 

Fields quickly progressed to the dent stage along the Ohio River Valley in the southern Corn Belt, with more

than half of the acreage denting in Missouri and Kentucky by August 15. Harvest began in the central and

High Plains regions of Texas and was virtually complete in the southern and coastal regions of the State.

In Iowa, forecasted stalk and ear populations are both at record levels when compared to final counts. Ear

length is above the 1994-98 average and 1998. Sixty-four percent of the corn was dented as of August 29,

compared to 64 percent in 1998 and the 5-year average of 41 percent. Corn condition was rated 70 percent

good to excellent.

Forecasted stalk and ear counts are at a record high level for Illinois when compared to final counts. Ear

length is below last year but equal to the 5-year average. Seventy-five percent of the corn was dented,

compared with 60 percent last year and 48 percent for the 5-year average. Forty percent of the corn was rated

in good to excellent condition.

In Indiana and Nebraska, forecasted stalk and ear counts are at a record high. Ear length is below both last

year and the average for both states. The corn dented in Indiana was at 74 percent compared to 55 percent for

last year and the average of 40 percent. The majority (72 percent) of corn in Indiana was rated in fair to good
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 33 NASS, USDA

condition. Nebraska corn was 52 percent dented on August 29 compared with 67 percent in 1998 and the

average of 45 percent. The Nebraska corn crop was rated 71 percent good to excellent.

Wisconsin stalk and ear counts are at the highest level on record. Ear length is above both last year and the

average. Forty-two percent of the crop was dented on August 29, compared with 45 percent in 1998 and the

average of 25 percent. Condition of the Wisconsin corn crop was rated 86 percent good to excellent.

Minnesota and Ohio stalk and ear counts from Objective Yield data indicate levels below last year but above

average. Ear length in Minnesota is below 1998 but above the 5-year average. In Ohio, ear length is below

both 1998 and the average for 1994-98. Corn dented in Minnesota was 56 percent by August 29, compared

to 71 percent for 1998 and the average of 35 percent. Ohio corn was 62 percent dented, compared to

38 percent for last year and the average of 28 percent. Minnesota corn was rated 63 percent good to excellent

while the Ohio crop was rated 68 percent fair to good.

Sorghum: Production is forecast at 580 million bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but

12 percent above the 1998 production. Area harvested and to be harvested is unchanged from August, at

8.50 million acres, 10 percent higher than the previous year. The forecasted yield, at 68.2 bushels per acre, is

down 1 bushel from last month but 0.9 bushels higher than last year’s yield.

Compared to August, forecasted yields are higher for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma; unchanged for

Colorado, Kansas, and New Mexico; and lower in the remaining States. Record high yields are expected in

Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. As of August 29, 28 percent of the crop was mature in the 12 major

States, equal to the average. The crop matured ahead of normal in Louisiana and Mississippi during August.

Barley: Production for 1999 is forecast at 283 million bushels, less than 1 percent higher than the August

forecast but 20 percent below the 1998 production. Area harvested and to be harvested is unchanged from

August, at 4.83 million acres, down 18 percent from the previous year. Yields are expected to average

58.5 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month but 1.6 bushels below last year’s yield.

Forecasted yields were unchanged from August in 5 of the 11 September forecast States. Compared to the

August forecast, Idaho, Washington, and Wyoming are expecting higher yields, while North Dakota, Oregon,

and Wisconsin are forecasting lower yields. Wet weather slowed harvest in most major States during August. 

As of August 29, 55 percent of the barley was harvested, behind the 71 percent 5-year average. If achieved,

the forecasted yield in Wyoming would equal the record high.

Durum Wheat: Grain area is unchanged from the last forecast at 3.90 million acres. Harvested yields were

lower than expected in South Dakota because of dry conditions. The North Dakota Durum crop trailed a

week behind the 5-year average throughout August; harvest was only 19 percent complete on August 29. 

Average harvest progress in North Dakota is 33 percent. North Dakota’s Durum Objective Yield survey head

count and weight forecasts are improved from a month ago, but still lower than average.

Other Spring Wheat: Harvested area for 1999 is 15.0 million acres, unchanged from last month and down

1 percent from last year. As of August 29, harvest trailed average by four points in the major producing states;

only the South Dakota harvest was ahead of average and was nearing completion. 

Idaho harvested yields are a bit higher than were expected last month. Washington’s average yield is

unchanged and thunderstorms are slowing the harvest. Objective Yield survey data shows plant populations

at above average levels in Minnesota, below in Montana, and about average in North Dakota. Head weight

forecasts are up from August in Minnesota and North Dakota, but are still below average; Montana’s weight

forecast dipped but remains better than average.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 34 NASS, USDA

Rice: Production is forecast at a record high 212 million cwt, down 1 percent from August 1 but 13 percent

above 1998. Area for harvest is expected to total 3.56 million acres, down slightly from August 1 but

7 percent above a year ago. Yields are expected to average 5,967 pounds per acre, down 26 pounds from

August but up 298 pounds from 1998. Yield prospects in California, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas

remained unchanged while Arkansas and Louisiana decreased from a month ago.

The Arkansas harvest was slightly ahead of schedule, while Texas was 22 percent ahead of the 5-year

average. California harvest has not begun. The cooler temperatures in July are expected to delay harvest by

about two weeks. As of August 29, Arkansas crop development was slightly ahead of normal and was rated

71 percent good to excellent. The Louisiana harvest was 79 percent complete and yields are less than earlier

expectations. The crop condition in Mississippi and Texas rated mostly good.

Soybeans: Acres expected for harvest, at 73.3 million acres, are unchanged from August but are 3 percent

above the 1998 record harvested acreage.

As of August 29, the soybeans crop was rated mostly in fair to good condition. At month’s end, crop

conditions had deteriorated in much of the Delta, Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic region as soil moisture

levels remained depleted and high temperatures persisted. Conditions in the western Corn Belt States and

northern tier States were more favorable during August as milder temperatures and occasional rains eased the

stress caused by the heat wave that hit in late July. In the drier eastern Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic, the crop

began to show some signs of improvement as much needed precipitation was finally received by the second

week of August and continued through the end of the month.

In the seventeen non-Objective Yield states that make yield forecasts in September, ten states reduced yields

from August. The largest yield reductions in September were seen in Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky,

Louisiana, Kansas, and South Dakota. Yields were also lowered in Georgia, Delaware, Mississippi, and South

Carolina. Yield increases were made in two states, North Dakota and Texas, while yields in Maryland,

Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin were unchanged from August.

If realized, pod counts from the September Objective Yield survey will be the highest on record in Illinois,

Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. In Missouri, pod counts for September were the lowest since 1988. 

In Ohio, pod counts were the second highest on record following the 1998 season.

Overall, crop maturity was running at an accelerated pace. As of August 29, 94 percent of the soybeans crop

had already set pods, 1 percentage point ahead of 1998 and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. 

The percent of soybeans dropping leaves, at 6 percent, was 1 percentage point ahead of the previous year and

3 percentage points ahead of the average.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.85 billion pounds, up slightly from the August 1 forecast but down

3 percent from last year’s crop. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.45 million acres, down slightly from

August and down 1 percent from 1998. North Carolina was the only state to adjust their harvested acreage

from the August report, decreasing their expectations by 1,000 acres. Yields are expected to average

2,660 pounds, up 3 pounds from last month but down 42 pounds from last year.

Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total

2.10 billion pounds, down slightly from last month and down 5 percent from last year’s level. Yield in the

Southeast region are expected to average 2,509 pounds per acre, down 11 pounds from August 1 and

131 pounds below 1998. Yield prospects in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina were unchanged from last

month while Florida decreased 100 pounds. Early harvest was underway in Florida and Georgia. As of

August 29, the crop condition in the 4-State area was mostly fair to good.

The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 588 million pounds, up 2 percent from last month, but

down 5 percent from 1998. Yield is forecast at 2,938 pounds, 63 pounds above last month but down
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 35 NASS, USDA

162 pounds from last year. On August 29, the Virginia-North Carolina crop was rated in mostly good

condition.

Southwest crop production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 1.17 billion pounds,

unchanged from last month but up 2 percent from 1998. Yields are expected to average 2,829 pounds,

191 pounds above 1998. On August 29, harvest had begun in Texas on the earliest fields. The tri-state area

crop condition was rated mostly fair to good.

Cotton: Upland harvested acreage is 25 percent above last year, with Louisiana increasing 30,000 acres from

August 1. Condition of the cotton crop has deteriorated since last month in most of the cotton-producing

States. Dry soils and above normal temperatures have stressed dryland cotton. American-Pima harvested

acreage is also unchanged from August, at 316,200, but up 35 percent from 1998. 

Texas cotton has experienced above normal temperatures, promoting rapid development. For the week

ending August 29, 29 percent of the cotton acreage was showing open bolls. This compares to 26 percent for

the 5-year average. However, these high temperatures have resulted in some boll drop, especially in dryland

areas. During the month of August, Texas cotton has shown a slight decline in overall condition. On August

29, 37 percent of the acreage was rated as good to excellent which compares to 45 percent on August 1. 

Harvest continues in the Coastal Bend and Upper Coast. The Rio Grande Valley had harvested almost all of

their cotton prior to Hurricane Bret. The Objective Yield survey data indicates Texas’ fruit counts rank ninth

in the last ten years. Oklahoma’s production is unchanged from last month. The overall condition of their

cotton crop has improved, but some dryland cotton is exhibiting signs of drought stress.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) experienced a slight decline in

the condition of their cotton during the month of August. Dry conditions continue to affect the region and

reduce the potential yield. Arkansas rated 59 percent of their acreage as good to excellent, 11 percent lower

than on August 1. Mississippi showed very similar results, rating 58 percent of the cotton as good to

excellent, also 11 percent below last month’s rating. Missouri and Louisiana rated 38 and 32 percent,

respectively, in the good to excellent categories. For Missouri, this was 1 percent lower than last month, but

Louisiana’s rating was down 38 percent. Tennessee rated only 20 percent of their cotton acreage as good to

excellent, a 28 percent decrease from August 1. While the condition deteriorated, warm weather has resulted

in accelerated maturity of the crop and the shedding of some small bolls. Boll opening was ahead of average

in all of the Delta States. On August 29, Arkansas was 42 percent open, 20 points ahead of the 5-year

average. Louisiana had bolls open on 63 percent of the acreage, compared to 54 percent on average. 

Mississippi had 80 percent of their acreage showing open bolls, 31 percent ahead of average. Cotton

Objective Yield data show Arkansas’ count of large boll count as the ninth lowest in the last ten years. 

Mississippi’s large boll count ranks seventh for the same time period. Louisiana’s total fruit count ranks ninth

since 1990. 

Unusually cool weather persisted in California and Arizona early in August, resulting in slow development of

the cotton crop. By mid-to-late August, beneficial warmth promoted development, but fields with open bolls

continued to lag behind the 5-year average. California reported only 5 percent of their cotton acreage having

open bolls on August 29, 23 percent behind normal. Arizona showed a similar results, with only 39 percent

of the acreage having open bolls. This compares to 66 percent on average. Despite the delay, there is not

widespread concern about the crop growing to maturity. At the end of August, California’s cotton continues

to be rated 90 percent good to excellent. Arizona rated 45 percent in these categories and an additional

45 percent as fair. Data from the Objective Yield plots indicate the number of small bolls in California ranks

second in the past ten years, while their large boll counts rank sixth during this time period.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), the cotton crop condition

declined due to hot and dry weather throughout most of the month. In late August, rains from Hurricane

Dennis improved soil moisture conditions in isolated areas, but some fields were too mature to benefit from

the moisture. Northern Alabama and the Carolinas did receive scattered showers during the middle of the

month, but additional rain was still needed. All four of the States showed a decline in cotton condition during

the month of August. South Carolina and Georgia each rated only 24 percent of their crop in the good to

excellent categories. There were declines of 38 and 35 points, respectively, from August 1. Georgia rated

33 percent good to excellent, a 19 percent decrease from August 1. North Carolina showed the least decline,

rating 57 percent of their cotton good to excellent, 14 points below last month. As was the case in the Delta

States, the warm, sunny weather has promoted rapid advancement of this year’s crop. After a slow start,
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 36 NASS, USDA

cotton development has now caught up or exceeded the 5-year average. As of August 29, Alabama reported

32 percent of the cotton acreage having open bolls, 10 percent above the 5-year average. North Carolina had

25 percent of its acreage with open bolls, 7 percent ahead of average. Georgia is 5 percent ahead of normal

with 36 percent of the acreage having open bolls and South Carolina is on average with 17 percent of the

cotton acres with open bolls. A small volume of cotton was reportedly harvested in Georgia. Harvesting is

not expected to become widespread until later in September.

American-Pima production is forecast at 688,500 bales, up 56 percent from last year’s output, and up

20,900 bales from August. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,045 pounds per harvested acre, up 141 pounds from

last year. California’s production is up 20,000 bales from the August forecast, while Arizona’s production is

increased 900 bales. Although cool temperatures have slowed development, the crop continues to be have

good potential in both of these States. New Mexico and Texas production remained unchanged.

Ginnings totaled 561,000 running bales prior to September 1, compared with 523,000 running bales ginned

prior to the same date last year and 358,700 running bales in 1998. 

Summer Potatoes: The September forecast of 1999 summer potato production is 18.6 million cwt, 2 percent

below a year ago and 2 percent below the July 1 forecast. Harvest area is estimated at 64,400 acres, down

5 percent from last year and slightly below two years ago. The average yield is forecast at 289 cwt per acre,

11 cwt above last year and 9 cwt above two years ago.

Yields are above last year in Alabama, California, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, and New Mexico. Alabama

and Missouri are record high, and Delaware tied a record high. Irrigation helped Delaware growers. Most

areas got off to a late start in the spring and were then hit by hot, dry weather during the last of the growing

season. Yields are down in Virginia, New Jersey, and Texas.

Harvest is virtually finished, although late in many areas. Late spring rains slowed early development in

Colorado and Nebraska, but most fields caught up to normal as warmer weather prevailed. Harvest was also

late in California and Delaware.

Fall Potatoes, 1998 Final: Production of 1998 fall potatoes is finalized at 433 million cwt, up 2 percent

from a year earlier but 5 percent below the record high production of 1996. The 1998 crop is the second

highest production on record. Farmers harvested 1.21 million acres of fall potatoes in 1998, up 2 percent

from 1997 but 3 percent short of 1996. The average yield was 356 cwt per acre, down 1 cwt from 1997 and

8 cwt below 1996. Compared with annual estimates made last January, larger crops were registered in

Nevada and Massachusetts. Idaho and Michigan crops were smaller.

All Potatoes, 1998: Final production of potatoes from all four seasons in 1998 totaled 476 million cwt, up

2 percent from a year earlier, but 5 percent below 1996. Area harvested is estimated at 1.39 million acres, up

3 percent from 1997 but 3 percent below 1996. Yield, averaging 343 cwt per acre, dropped 2 cwt from a year

ago and was 7 cwt lower than two years ago. In 1998, winter production dropped 13 percent, spring slipped

5 percent, summer gained 4 percent, and fall potatoes increased 2 percent from the previous year.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1999 is forecast at 1.31 billion pounds, down 11 percent from

1998 and down 27 percent from 1997. Harvested acres are expected to total 661,110, also down 8 percent

from 1998. Yields for 1999 are expected to average 1,984 pounds per acre, 77 pounds below a year ago. 

Tobacco growers in North Carolina watched yield prospects slip from a month ago levels due to dry

conditions. Growers in Kentucky, the leading burley state, also watched yields deteriorate from last month

due to dry conditions. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 37 NASS, USDA

Flue-cured production is expected to total 700 million pounds, down 14 percent from 1998. Growers plan

to harvest 316,000 acres in 1999, 14 percent below last year. Yield is expected to average 2,217 pounds per

acre, down 41 pounds from last month but up 13 pounds from a year ago. 

Burley production is expected to total 536 million pounds, 8 percent below a year ago. Yield is expected to

average 1,754 pounds per acre, a decline of 134 pounds from the previous forecast and down 142 pounds

from 1998. Burley tobacco growers plan to harvest 305,700 acres, slightly below a year ago. Kentucky’s

acreage, at 215,000, is expected to be the same as last year but yield declined 150 pounds from last month. 

Tennessee’s dark fired tobacco yields dropped as much as 200 pounds from last month while burley declined

150 pounds from the previous forecast. Yields are highly variable due to drought severity and planting date. 

Early tobacco has fared well, whereas late tobacco looks poor. Black shank has been a problem throughout

the State.

Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus belt received adequate to surplus precipitation during the month of August. 

Several growers on the lower east coast and the west coast had frequent, heavy downpours with occasional

flooding and erosion. A few groves on the high sand hills, however, received only variable to light rainfall

and required periodic irrigation. There is an abundance of new growth on trees of all ages in all areas. New

crop fruit is making very good progress. Two packing houses have packed new crop, early bloom Navels. 

There are several fresh fruit houses also testing grapefruit for early harvest. Caretakers have been very active

cutting cover crops and applying herbicides. Growers are also applying summer sprays and fertilizers

between rain showers. Dead trees and abandoned groves are being pushed and burned. New trees have been

reset in the larger groves.

California Citrus: During the month of August, new crop navel oranges were maturing well. Sizes were

slightly below the average of the last 12 non-freeze years. Growers in southern California continued to

harvest Valencia oranges and lemons.

Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at record high 33.6 million tons, 3 percent above the previous record in

1998. Growers in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1,525,500 acres, 5 percent more than

last year and the highest since 1,540,500 acres were harvested in 1969. The yield is forecast at 22.0 tons per

acre, 0.5 ton below 1998.

Seasonal temperatures and adequate moisture supplies promoted healthy development in most of the Great

Plains. A few fields in Colorado were damaged by hail and excessive moisture. Some fields in North Dakota

and Minnesota were also hampered by excessive soil moisture. The California beet crop is forecast at a

record high, as cooler-than-normal summer weather boosted yield prospects. Increasing moisture shortages

stressed some fields in Michigan.

Sugarcane: Production is forecast at a record high 37.1 million tons, 7 percent above the previous record of

34.7 million tons set last year. U.S. sugarcane growers intend to harvest a record high 987,500 acres for sugar

and seed during the 1999 crop year, 4 percent more than last year’s final harvested acres. The record high

acreage is due to a 30,000 acre expansion in Louisiana and a 9,000 acre increase in Florida. The expansion in

Louisiana is due to increased use of a new high-yielding variety that can be harvested mechanically even if it

is severely lodged. Yield is forecast at 37.5 tons per acre, 0.9 ton above 1998. A record high yield is forecast

for Louisiana due to ideal growing conditions, a high yielding sugarcane hybrid, and increased utilization of a

more efficient harvester. Warm weather and frequent rains promoted rapid growth in Florida.

Papayas: Hawaii's fresh papaya output is estimated at 3.50 million pounds for August, 8 percent higher than

July and 26 percent higher than a year ago. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,515 acres in August,

1 percent higher than July but 4 percent lower than August 1998. August weather conditions were variable

with a mix of sunshine and showers. Soil moisture levels were low in some orchards early in the month, but
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 38 NASS, USDA

were replenished by the end of August. Harvesting of the transgenic Rainbow variety, which is resistant to

the papaya ringspot virus, was increasing as more fields mature.

California Fruits and Nuts: Fresh use grape harvesting was active in the San Joaquin Valley during

August. Major varieties that were picked included Thompson Seedless, Red Globe, and Flame Seedless. By

the end of August, raisin grapes were being dried and wine grape harvesting was underway. Stone fruit

harvesting made good progress during the month and began to wind down by September 1. The Bartlett pear

harvest was wrapping up by late August and good quality was reported. Asian and other pear harvests were

also active. Early variety apple picking gained momentum. Almond growers began harvest of early varieties

by late August. Walnut trees were treated for codling moths. Olives were maturing well. Central Valley

growers were planting strawberries.

Hazelnuts: Hazelnut production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 38,000 tons for 1999. This would

be almost two and one-half times larger than last year’s crop but 19 percent less than the 1997 record

production. Oregon is expected to account for 37,700 tons and Washington the remaining 300 tons.

Pollination was generally good during January and February despite wetter than normal conditions. Crop

progress is now about 10 to 14 days behind normal. Except for delayed maturity, the cool, wet spring which

extended into early summer has not affected the crop. Eastern Filbert Blight continues to limit potential

production in infested orchards.

The results of the hazelnut objective yield survey showed the number of nuts picked per tree was up 178

percent from last year but down 23 percent from 1997. The percentage of good nuts was off three percentage

points from 1998 and about two percentage points from 1997. The average dry weight of the good nuts was

one-third gram lower than last year but one-tenth gram higher than in 1997. The average size was much

smaller than in 1998 but nearly the same as 1997. Brown stained nuts amounted to just 0.9 percent of the

sample, the lowest percentage since 1991.

Walnuts: The 1999 California walnut production is forecast at a record 280,000 tons, up 23 percent from the

1998 production of 227,000 tons. The September forecast is based upon the Walnut Objective Measurement

Survey conducted August 1 through August 22, 1999.

Survey data indicated an average nut set of 1,709, up 21 percent from last year’s average of 1,407. The

Hartley nut set was up 54 percent; Serr, down 39 percent; Franquette, up 86 percent; and Chandler, up

18 percent from 1998. Percent of sound kernels in-shell was a record high 97.9 percent Statewide. In-shell

weight per nut was 23.0 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement was 32.2 millimeters. The

average length in-shell was 39.4 millimeters.

Due to a cool spring, the crop is about two weeks behind normal. The early and mid-season varieties are

expected to be about average, while late variety production is expected to be larger than last year. Quality is

expected to be excellent, with very little damage.

Pistachios: California pistachio production is forecast at 110 million pounds, 41 percent below last year’s

record production. This forecast is based upon an objective measurement survey completed August 27, 1999. 

The estimated average number of clusters per tree was 591. The estimated total number of filled nuts per tree

was 4,630 as compared with 9,542 in 1998. The average number of nuts per cluster, including both filled and

blank, was 11.1 nuts per cluster. The percent of nuts filled was 70.4 percent. The average in-hull weight per

nut including blanks was 2.82 grams, compared to 2.86 grams last year. The in-hull cross suture

measurement was 15.29 millimeters, compared to 15.05 millimeters in 1998. Average kernel weight in 1999

was 0.928 grams. The average suture was 10.16 millimeters, average cross suture 9.78 millimeters, and

kernel length was 16.72 millimeters.

Due to the later than usual spring, the crop is approximately two to three weeks behind normal.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 39 NASS, USDA

Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between August 25 and

September 4 to gather information on expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for

wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for

about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were re-visted to make current counts. The

counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of

plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of heads,

ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a

projected biological yield. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are

revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has

harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal

interviewers. Approximately 16,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked

questions about probable yield. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide

indications of average yields as the season progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for

reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering

weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical

Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB

uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published September 1 forecasts. 

Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be

made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end

of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings,

feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative

data warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is

strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1 production forecast, the "Root

Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by

expressing the deviation between the September 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage

of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the 1979-1998 20-year period; the

square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be

made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate,

assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain production forecast is

5.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 9.38 billion bushels

will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.5 percent or approximately 516 million bushels. 

Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.5 percent or

approximately 891 million bushels.

Also shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the

September 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the

September 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 310 million bushels,

ranging from 10 million bushels to 891 million bushels. The September 1 has been below the final estimate

12 times and above 8 times. This does not imply that the September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to

understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 40 NASS, USDA

Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Crop Unit

Root Mean

Square Error 20-Year Record of

Differences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Percent

90

Percent

Confidence

Interval

Quantity Years

Average Smallest Largest Below

Final

Above

Final

Million Million Million Number Number

Corn For Grain

Sorghum for Grain

Barley

All Wheat

 Durum

 Other Spring

Rice

Soybeans for Beans

Cotton 1

Bu

Bu

Bu

Bu

Bu

Bu

Cwt

Bu

Bales

5.5

7.3

3.8

1.5

5.8

3.7

4.2

5.0

6.0

9.5

12.6

6.8

2.5

9.9

6.4

7.2

8.6

10.4

310

32

12

28

4

14

5

93

692

10

1

0

2

0

1

0

19

5

891

115

38

97

12

62

16

199

2,366

12

12

7

8

9

10

12

10

11

8

8

13

12

11

10

8

10

9 1 Quantity is in thousands of bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1999 41 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-3843

Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-9526

Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Lance Honig - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234

Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Dean Groskurth, Head (202) 720-3843

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488

Howard Hill - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,

Mushrooms (202) 690-0270

Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 8, 1999.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race,

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(Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for

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the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.
USDA to Hold Public Forum

October 18, 1999

Holiday Inn Mart Plaza

Chicago, Illinois

The National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open

forum for Data Users. The purpose will be to provide updates on

pending changes in the USDA statistical and information programs,

and to seek comments and input from data users. Other agencies to be

represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the

Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and the

World Agricultural Outlook Board.

For registration details, see the NASS home page at

http://www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Fred Vogel (NASS) at 

(202) 720-3896 or at hq_ed_od@nass.usda.gov