Cr Pr 2-2 (10-04)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released October 12, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Orange Production Down 20 Percent from Last Season

Corn Production Up 6 Percent from September Forecast

Soybean Production Up 10 Percent

Cotton Production Up 3 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 11.6 billion bushels, up 6 percent from last month and 15 percent above 2003. 

Based on conditions as of October 1, the yield is expected to average 158.4 bushels per acre, up 9.0 bushels from

September and 16.2 bushels above last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. 

The previous record for both was set last year when production was estimated at 10.1 billion bushels and yield was

142.2 bushels per acre. Yields are forecast at record high levels in all Corn Belt States, except Minnesota and

Wisconsin, as weather conditions have been mostly favorable throughout the growing season. Based on

administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States and farmers now expect to harvest

73.3 million acres of corn for grain, down 66,000 acres from September but up 3 percent from 2003.

Soybean production is forecast at 3.11 billion bushels, up 10 percent from the September forecast and 27 percent

above 2003. If realized, this would be the largest U.S. soybean crop on record. Based on conditions as of

October 1, yield is expected to average a record high 42.0 bushels per acre, up 3.5 bushels from September. Belownormal temperatures and adequate moisture during August and early September across most of the Corn Belt, Great

Plains, and Delta were beneficial to the crop during the final stages of development. Above-normal temperatures

followed, during the rest of September, just in time for the beginning of the harvest season. Based on

administrative data, acreage updates were made in several States. Area planted is now estimated at 75.1 million

acres, up 256,000 acres from the August estimate. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.0 million acres, up 335,000

from September.

Revised 2003 soybean acreage, yield, and production were published in the September 30, 2004 Grain Stocks

report.

All cotton production is forecast at 21.5 million 480-pound bales, up 3 percent from last month and 18 percent

above last year's 18.3 million bales. Yield is expected to average 782 pounds per acre, up 24 pounds from last

month and 52 pounds from 2003. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. Thirteen of

the 15 published States are expecting production to remain the same or increase from a month ago. Harvested area,

at 13.2 million acres, is the same as September but up 10 percent from 2003. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 2 NASS, USDA

The U.S. all orange initial forecast for the 2004-05 season is 10.3 million tons, down 20 percent from last season’s

utilization. This forecast is as of October 1, and takes into account fruit loss caused by the four hurricanes that

affected citrus producing areas in Florida during the months of August and September. Florida’s all orange forecast

is 176 million boxes (7.92 million tons), 27 percent less than last season’s final utilization. Early, midseason, and

Navel varieties are forecast at 92.0 million boxes (4.14 million tons), 27 percent below last season’s final

utilization. The Valencia oranges are forecast at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons), 28 percent below last

season’s final utilization. 

California’s all orange production for the 2004-05 season is forecast at 62.0 million boxes, (2.33 million tons),

19 percent more than the previous season. The Navel orange forecast is carried forward from September at

46.0 million boxes (1.73 million tons) and is 21 percent higher than the 2003-04 season. Fruit size is smaller than

last season for the 2004-05 Navel crop. Although the fruit matured quickly as a result of higher than average

temperatures during summer, fruit growth slowed and the average September size increase was about 10 percent

less than last season. Growers expect fruit sizing will accelerate given sufficient October rainfall. The fruit quality

is poorer than last season. Consequently, it is expected that a relatively high percentage will be diverted to

processing. The initial California Valencia forecast for the 2004-05 crop is 16.0 million boxes (600,000 tons),

14 percent above last season’s utilization. California’s Valencia crop is developing normally with a significantly

heavier fruit set than the 2003-04 season. 

The Texas initial forecast for the 2004-05 all orange crop is 1.90 million boxes (81,000 tons), up 16 percent from

last season's final utilization. Arizona's 2004-05 all orange crop is 440,000 boxes, down 6 percent from the 2003-04

final utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season is forecast at 1.56 gallons per box

at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is the same as the 2003-04 season’s yield of 1.56 gallons per box as reported by the

Florida Citrus Processors Association. Projected yield for the 2004-05 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will

be published in the January Crop Production Report.

This report was approved on October 12, 2004.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Selected Crops ............................................................................. 4

Grains & Hay

Corn for Grain .......................................................................... 6

 Ears Per Acre ........................................................................ 31

Hay, Alfalfa .......................................................................... 14

Hay, Other ............................................................................ 15

Rice .................................................................................. 8

 Rice, by Class ......................................................................... 8

Sorghum for Grain ...................................................................... 7

Oilseeds

Canola ............................................................................... 11

Peanuts .............................................................................. 11

Soybeans .............................................................................. 9

 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet ...................................................... 32

Sunflower ............................................................................ 10

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Cotton ............................................................................... 12

 Cumulative Bolls Counts ............................................................... 33

Cottonseed ........................................................................... 13

Sugarbeets ............................................................................ 20

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed ............................................................. 20

Tobacco .............................................................................. 17

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

Dry Edibles Beans ...................................................................... 16

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts 

Apples ............................................................................... 22

Grapes ............................................................................... 24

Papayas .............................................................................. 24

Pecans ............................................................................... 23

Citrus

Grapefruit ............................................................................ 21

Lemons .............................................................................. 21

Oranges .............................................................................. 21

Tangelos ............................................................................. 21

Tangerines ............................................................................ 21

Temples .............................................................................. 21

Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops

Potatoes .............................................................................. 17

Crop Comments .......................................................................... 38

Crop Summary ........................................................................... 25

Florida Citrus Forecast Procedures .......................................................... 48

Information Contacts ...................................................................... 49

Reliability of Production Data in this Report ................................................... 46

Weather Maps ............................................................................ 34

Weather Summary ........................................................................ 36
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 4 NASS, USDA

Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State

and United States, 2004

State

Corn Sorghum Soybeans

Planted 1 Harvested Planted 1 Harvested Planted 1 Harvested

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

240

55

320

580

1,200

31

160

70

330

215

11,700

5,700

12,700

3,100

1,210

420

28

490

19

2,200

7,500

460

2,950

70

8,300

4

15

88

130

980

830

1,800

3,350

250

55

1,400

2

310

4,650

680

1,800

53

90

480

160

48

3,650

95

80,968

210

27

300

190

1,000

155

35

280

70

11,550

5,500

12,300

2,750

1,110

405

420

1,950

6,900

440

2,850

19

7,900

72

49

450

760

1,500

3,100

205

28

900

285

4,100

610

1,600

13

340

100

28

2,750

60

73,311

10

13

62

23

280

1

45

100

3,200

17

85

5

25

150

550

130

15

270

15

7

250

20

2,250

5

7,528

7

4

58

12

200

1

25

95

2,900

15

80

3

24

145

420

90

11

230

5

5

160

17

2,050

2

6,559

210

3,200

210

18

280

9,900

5,500

10,200

2,800

1,310

1,100

500

2,000

7,300

1,670

5,000

4,800

103

175

1,520

3,750

4,450

320

400

540

4,150

1,210

290

540

19

1,600

75,065

195

3,150

207

16

260

9,850

5,430

10,150

2,700

1,290

1,070

490

1,990

7,200

1,630

4,940

4,750

101

173

1,470

3,670

4,420

290

395

520

4,090

1,180

275

520

18

1,550

73,990

 1 Updated from the June 2004 "Acreage" report.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 5 NASS, USDA

Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State

and United States, 2004 1

State

Canola

Sunflower

Oil Non Oil All

Planted Harvested Planted Harvested Planted Harvested Planted Harvested

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CO

KS

MN

NE

ND

SD

TX

Oth

 Sts 2

US

35

780

53

868

32

750

50

832

90

150

30

36

720

400

18

76

1,520

80

140

28

33

700

390

17

68

1,456

45

20

30

21

160

25

27

16

344

43

18

28

19

155

24

26

11

324

135

170

60

57

880

425

45

92

1,864

123

158

56

52

855

414

43

79

1,780

 1 Updated from the June 2004 "Acreage" report. 2 Other States for canola include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA.

Other States for Sunflower include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 6 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

CA

CO

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

190

350

170

890

162

285

11,050

5,390

12,000

2,500

1,080

500

410

2,090

6,650

530

2,800

7,700

61

48

440

680

1,170

3,070

190

890

215

3,850

630

1,650

330

70

2,850

248

71,139

210

300

190

1,000

155

280

11,550

5,500

12,300

2,750

1,110

405

420

1,950

6,900

440

2,850

7,900

72

49

450

760

1,500

3,100

205

900

285

4,100

610

1,600

340

100

2,750

280

73,311

122.0

140.0

160.0

135.0

123.0

129.0

164.0

146.0

157.0

120.0

137.0

134.0

123.0

126.0

146.0

135.0

108.0

146.0

113.0

180.0

121.0

106.0

112.0

156.0

125.0

115.0

105.0

111.0

131.0

118.0

115.0

195.0

129.0

134.8

142.2

120.0

140.0

160.0

132.0

128.0

130.0

170.0

157.0

163.0

145.0

142.0

135.0

143.0

122.0

147.0

136.0

144.0

157.0

120.0

180.0

116.0

115.0

105.0

156.0

150.0

129.0

95.0

118.0

140.0

130.0

143.0

195.0

127.0

140.3

149.4

120.0

140.0

165.0

132.0

144.0

130.0

180.0

167.0

180.0

148.0

150.0

135.0

152.0

127.0

155.0

136.0

156.0

168.0

128.0

180.0

121.0

115.0

110.0

160.0

140.0

134.0

97.0

120.0

140.0

133.0

145.0

200.0

136.0

144.0

158.4

23,180

49,000

27,200

120,150

19,926

36,765

1,812,200

786,940

1,884,000

300,000

147,960

67,000

50,430

263,340

970,900

71,550

302,400

1,124,200

6,893

8,640

53,240

72,080

131,040

478,920

23,750

102,350

22,575

427,350

82,530

194,700

37,950

13,650

367,650

33,428

10,113,887

25,200

42,000

31,350

132,000

22,320

36,400

2,079,000

918,500

2,214,000

407,000

166,500

54,675

63,840

247,650

1,069,500

59,840

444,600

1,327,200

9,216

8,820

54,450

87,400

165,000

496,000

28,700

120,600

27,645

492,000

85,400

212,800

49,300

20,000

374,000

40,320

11,613,226

 1 Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop

Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 7 NASS, USDA

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AR

CO

IL

KS

LA

MO

NE

NM

OK

SD

TX

Oth

 Sts 1

US

210

160

105

2,900

165

210

500

62

250

150

2,850

236

7,798

58

200

95

2,900

80

145

420

90

230

160

2,050

131

6,559

82.0

27.0

82.0

45.0

85.0

77.0

62.0

27.0

37.0

45.0

54.0

75.5

52.7

80.0

38.0

98.0

75.0

65.0

100.0

85.0

35.0

50.0

46.0

61.0

74.5

68.3

84.0

35.0

107.0

75.0

70.0

103.0

82.0

50.0

53.0

46.0

65.0

76.7

70.4

17,220

4,320

8,610

130,500

14,025

16,170

31,000

1,674

9,250

6,750

153,900

17,818

411,237

4,872

7,000

10,165

217,500

5,600

14,935

34,440

4,500

12,190

7,360

133,250

10,045

461,857

 1 Other States include AL, AZ, CA, DE, GA, KY, MD, MS, NC, PA, SC, TN, and VA. Individual State level estimates will be published

in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 8 NASS, USDA

Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 1

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO

TX

US

1,455

507

450

234

171

180

2,997

1,560

600

530

233

194

217

3,334

6,590

7,620

5,870

6,800

6,130

6,600

6,645

6,650

7,900

5,300

6,900

6,350

6,500

6,651

6,800

8,100

5,300

6,900

6,350

6,600

6,763

95,860

38,624

26,397

15,912

10,484

11,880

199,157

106,080

48,600

28,090

16,077

12,319

14,322

225,488

 1 Sweet rice acreage and production included in 2003 and 2004 but not previous years.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,

2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain 1 All

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

2002

2003

2004 2

157,243

149,011

165,287

52,201

47,440

56,843

1,516

2,706

3,358

210,960

199,157

225,488

 1 Sweet rice production included with short grain in 2003 and 2004 but not in previous years. 2 The 2004 rice production by class estimates are based on class harvested acreage estimates and the 5-year average class yield compared

to the all rice yield.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 9 NASS, USDA

Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

160

2,890

178

180

10,260

5,370

10,550

2,480

1,240

740

430

1,990

7,450

1,430

4,950

4,500

88

138

1,400

3,050

4,280

245

375

420

4,200

1,120

185

480

1,670

27

72,476

195

3,150

207

260

9,850

5,430

10,150

2,700

1,290

1,070

490

1,990

7,200

1,630

4,940

4,750

101

173

1,470

3,670

4,420

290

395

520

4,090

1,180

275

520

1,550

34

73,990

36.0

38.5

36.0

33.0

37.0

38.0

32.5

23.0

43.5

34.0

37.0

27.5

32.0

39.0

29.5

40.5

34.0

35.0

30.0

29.0

38.5

26.0

41.0

28.0

27.5

42.0

29.0

34.0

28.0

36.1

33.9

35.0

39.0

41.0

30.0

44.0

45.0

40.0

37.0

41.0

31.0

38.0

31.0

36.0

37.0

38.0

45.0

40.0

33.0

32.0

26.0

40.0

32.0

43.0

26.0

33.0

39.0

31.0

36.0

33.0

38.7

38.5

37.0

40.0

42.0

30.0

49.0

51.0

47.0

41.0

42.0

31.0

41.0

35.0

36.0

39.0

44.0

47.0

42.0

36.0

32.0

27.0

46.0

30.0

45.0

26.0

34.0

40.0

31.0

37.0

35.0

34.2

42.0

5,760

111,265

6,408

5,940

379,620

204,060

342,875

57,040

53,940

25,160

15,910

54,725

238,400

55,770

146,025

182,250

2,992

4,830

42,000

88,450

164,780

6,370

15,375

11,760

115,500

47,040

5,365

16,320

46,760

975

2,453,665

7,215

126,000

8,694

7,800

482,650

276,930

477,050

110,700

54,180

33,170

20,090

69,650

259,200

63,570

217,360

223,250

4,242

6,228

47,040

99,090

203,320

8,700

17,775

13,520

139,060

47,200

8,525

19,240

54,250

1,162

3,106,861

 1 Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 10 NASS, USDA

Sunflower: Area Planted by Varietal Type,

State and United States, 2003 1

State Varietal Type

Oil Non-Oil All

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CO

KS

MN

NE

ND

SD

TX

Oth Sts 2

US

95

170

55

51

1,060

475

17

75

1,998

35

23

35

15

150

30

42

16

346

130

193

90

66

1,210

505

59

91

2,344

 1 Revised. 2 Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY.

Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2002-2003 1 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

Varietal

Type &

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2 2002 2003 2004 2

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oil

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Non-Oil

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

All

 CO

 KS

 MN

 NE

 ND

 SD

 TX

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

85

155

54

48

1,020

430

16

66

1,874

33

21

34

14

145

25

40

11

323

118

176

88

62

1,165

455

56

77

2,197

80

140

28

33

700

390

17

68

1,456

43

18

28

19

155

24

26

11

324

123

158

56

52

855

414

43

79

1,780

1,000

1,160

1,650

900

1,300

1,000

1,400

1,275

1,206

1,010

1,200

1,550

1,050

1,330

1,100

1,200

1,025

1,256

1,003

1,165

1,611

934

1,304

1,005

1,257

1,240

1,213

1,040

1,530

1,350

1,070

1,300

1,500

1,500

1,232

1,346

34,020

139,500

51,800

18,000

1,447,550

318,750

9,000

47,279

2,065,899

15,840

12,610

31,050

7,700

252,000

41,250

16,000

8,898

385,348

49,860

152,110

82,850

25,700

1,699,550

360,000

25,000

56,177

2,451,247

85,000

179,800

89,100

43,200

1,326,000

430,000

22,400

84,166

2,259,666

33,330

25,200

52,700

14,700

192,850

27,500

48,000

11,280

405,560

118,330

205,000

141,800

57,900

1,518,850

457,500

70,400

95,446

2,665,226

127,920

241,740

75,600

55,640

1,111,500

621,000

64,500

97,299

2,395,199

 1 2003 Revised. 2 2004 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". 3 Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 11 NASS, USDA

Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and

United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 1 2004 2002 2003 1 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

AL

FL

GA

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

185.0

96.0

510.0

18.0

101.0

60.0

10.0

315.0

58.0

1,353.0

190.0

125.0

545.0

18.0

101.0

37.0

19.0

275.0

34.0

1,344.0

200.0

145.0

620.0

17.0

105.0

34.0

35.0

240.0

33.0

1,429.0

180.0

86.0

505.0

18.0

100.0

57.0

8.7

280.0

57.0

1,291.7

185.0

115.0

540.0

17.0

100.0

35.0

17.0

270.0

33.0

1,312.0

195.0

130.0

610.0

16.0

105.0

32.0

33.0

235.0

32.0

1,388.0

State

Yield Production

2002 2003 1 20042002 2003 1 2004

Sep 1 Oct 1

Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

AL

FL

GA

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

2,110

2,300

2,600

3,000

2,100

2,800

2,200

3,100

2,100

2,571

2,750

3,000

3,450

2,700

3,200

2,800

3,400

3,000

2,900

3,159

2,800

3,100

3,300

3,000

3,200

3,200

3,100

3,300

3,100

3,188

2,700

2,300

3,000

3,000

3,200

3,300

3,200

3,300

3,100

2,972

379,800

197,800

1,313,000

54,000

210,000

159,600

19,140

868,000

119,700

3,321,040

508,750

345,000

1,863,000

45,900

320,000

98,000

57,800

810,000

95,700

4,144,150

526,500

299,000

1,830,000

48,000

336,000

105,600

105,600

775,500

99,200

4,125,400

Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State

and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

MN

ND

Oth Sts 1

US

56

960

52

1,068

32

750

50

832

1,820

1,410

1,091

1,416

1,350

1,530

1,422

1,517

44,500

1,403,600

85,320

1,533,420

101,920

1,353,600

56,730

1,512,250

43,200

1,147,500

71,120

1,261,820

 1 Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 12 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

510.0

213.0

945.0

545.0

1,290.0

510.0

1,090.0

390.0

38.0

770.0

170.0

218.0

530.0

4,350.0

85.0

172.0

11,826.0

2.4

149.0

6.0

20.0

177.4

510.0

215.4

945.0

694.0

1,290.0

510.0

1,090.0

390.0

44.0

770.0

170.0

218.0

530.0

4,370.0

85.0

172.0

12,003.4

535.0

236.0

920.0

557.0

1,260.0

490.0

1,090.0

385.0

64.0

725.0

195.0

218.0

540.0

5,500.0

81.0

174.0

12,970.0

3.0

219.0

11.0

20.0

253.0

535.0

239.0

920.0

776.0

1,260.0

490.0

1,090.0

385.0

75.0

725.0

195.0

218.0

540.0

5,520.0

81.0

174.0

13,223.0

772

1,239

916

1,317

785

967

934

862

884

646

616

718

806

478

674

576

723

920

1,194

1,056

1,056

1,170

772

1,236

916

1,290

785

967

934

862

908

646

616

718

806

480

674

576

730

749

1,322

903

1,465

762

637

800

823

938

742

645

731

827

611

836

648

747

960

1,403

916

1,032

1,347

749

1,317

903

1,447

762

637

800

823

934

742

645

731

827

612

836

648

758

673

1,322

976

1,508

667

764

925

860

938

781

645

731

827

637

836

607

771

960

1,414

916

1,032

1,357

673

1,317

976

1,481

667

764

925

860

934

781

645

731

827

639

836

607

782

820.0

550.0

1,804.0

1,495.0

2,110.0

1,027.0

2,120.0

700.0

70.0

1,037.0

218.0

326.0

890.0

4,330.0

119.4

206.5

17,822.9

4.6

370.5

13.2

44.0

432.3

820.0

554.6

1,804.0

1,865.5

2,110.0

1,027.0

2,120.0

700.0

83.2

1,037.0

218.0

326.0

890.0

4,374.0

119.4

206.5

18,255.2

750.0

650.0

1,870.0

1,750.0

1,750.0

780.0

2,100.0

690.0

125.0

1,180.0

262.0

332.0

930.0

7,300.0

141.0

220.0

20,830.0

6.0

645.0

21.0

43.0

715.0

750.0

656.0

1,870.0

2,395.0

1,750.0

780.0

2,100.0

690.0

146.0

1,180.0

262.0

332.0

930.0

7,343.0

141.0

220.0

21,545.0

 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3 Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 13 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Production

2002 2003 2004 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 6,183.9 6,664.6 7,879.0

 1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 14 NASS, USDA

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AZ

CA

CO

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

MI

MN

MO

MT

NE

NV

NM

NY

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SD

TX

UT

VA

WA

WI

WY

Oth

 Sts 1

US

235

1,090

800

1,200

425

350

1,330

1,000

250

850

1,375

450

1,600

1,450

265

230

600

1,600

580

310

490

550

2,700

140

545

130

510

1,600

650

273

23,578

240

1,050

730

1,180

400

350

1,300

900

260

850

1,325

420

1,600

1,250

275

240

500

1,300

500

340

450

520

2,600

150

550

120

480

1,600

490

256

22,226

8.50

7.00

3.20

3.70

4.10

3.80

3.70

3.40

3.50

3.20

3.00

2.95

2.10

3.60

4.40

4.90

2.80

1.65

3.40

3.20

4.60

3.00

1.90

4.70

4.00

3.50

5.30

2.30

2.40

2.97

3.24

8.40

7.20

3.50

3.60

4.60

4.10

4.30

4.60

3.70

3.40

3.60

3.70

2.30

3.60

4.50

4.90

3.00

1.60

3.40

3.80

4.40

3.00

2.10

4.70

3.90

3.90

5.10

2.50

2.30

2.94

3.48

1,863

8,004

2,262

4,680

1,620

990

4,875

3,515

928

3,045

4,620

1,200

3,000

4,050

1,183

1,272

1,525

1,885

1,860

1,225

2,129

1,768

3,375

690

2,034

350

2,499

4,620

1,150

797

73,014

1,998

7,630

2,560

4,440

1,743

1,330

4,921

3,400

875

2,720

4,125

1,328

3,360

5,220

1,166

1,127

1,680

2,640

1,972

992

2,254

1,650

5,130

658

2,180

455

2,703

3,680

1,560

810

76,307

2,016

7,560

2,555

4,248

1,840

1,435

5,590

4,140

962

2,890

4,770

1,554

3,680

4,500

1,238

1,176

1,500

2,080

1,700

1,292

1,980

1,560

5,460

705

2,145

468

2,448

4,000

1,127

752

77,371

 1 Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published

in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 15 NASS, USDA

All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AR

CA

CO

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

Oth

 Sts 1

US

780

1,320

480

700

600

300

350

300

270

2,250

2,200

380

200

700

750

3,800

850

1,700

1,250

760

1,350

770

2,500

625

1,100

1,600

2,000

5,100

1,150

300

500

500

550

1,779

39,764

850

1,460

490

730

580

300

350

290

300

2,200

2,000

360

250

650

720

3,900

950

1,550

1,150

700

1,300

720

2,500

655

1,200

1,500

1,950

4,800

1,250

310

520

500

500

1,878

39,363

2.60

2.20

3.50

1.50

3.00

1.70

2.80

2.60

2.20

1.60

2.50

2.90

2.00

1.60

2.50

1.80

1.50

1.40

1.60

2.60

1.45

2.60

1.60

2.20

2.20

1.30

2.30

2.30

2.60

3.00

1.90

1.40

1.40

2.22

2.03

2.70

2.20

3.40

1.90

3.00

1.80

2.60

3.00

2.60

2.20

2.50

2.60

2.20

1.80

2.90

2.30

1.70

1.50

2.00

2.50

1.45

2.70

1.90

2.50

2.30

1.30

2.50

2.70

2.60

3.20

1.90

1.60

1.40

2.19

2.25

1,815

3,243

1,770

715

1,560

608

683

630

770

3,450

4,200

1,050

506

1,190

1,875

7,123

1,540

1,700

2,090

1,314

2,035

1,540

4,760

1,364

1,680

1,440

4,095

12,720

2,125

837

936

720

450

3,919

76,453

2,028

2,904

1,680

1,050

1,800

510

980

780

594

3,600

5,500

1,102

400

1,120

1,875

6,840

1,275

2,380

2,000

1,976

1,958

2,002

4,000

1,375

2,420

2,080

4,600

11,730

2,990

900

950

700

770

3,947

80,816

2,295

3,212

1,666

1,387

1,740

540

910

870

780

4,840

5,000

936

550

1,170

2,088

8,970

1,615

2,325

2,300

1,750

1,885

1,944

4,750

1,638

2,760

1,950

4,875

12,960

3,250

992

988

800

700

4,113

88,549

 1 Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, and VT. Individual State level estimates will be

published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 16 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield,

and Production by State and United States, 2003-2004 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT 3

NE

NM 3

NY

ND

OR 3

SD

TX

UT 3

WA

WI 3

WY

US

77.0

80.0

75.0

12.0

170.0

115.0

13.0

155.0

10.0

25.0

540.0

7.0

8.0

50.0

5.6

27.5

6.0

30.0

1,406.1

67.0

75.0

80.0

9.0

190.0

115.0

18.0

120.0

7.0

24.0

560.0

5.0

10.0

25.5

5.3

29.0

5.6

28.0

1,373.4

75.0

73.0

73.0

11.0

165.0

110.0

12.8

148.0

10.0

24.0

520.0

6.0

7.5

44.0

5.2

27.5

5.9

29.0

1,346.9

65.0

67.0

78.0

8.5

180.0

100.0

17.0

112.0

7.0

23.5

490.0

4.0

10.0

24.4

5.2

29.0

5.5

24.0

1,250.1

Yield 4 Production 4

2003 2004 2003 2004

Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT 3

NE

NM 3

NY

ND

OR 3

SD

TX

UT 3

WA

WI 3

WY

US

1,870

1,600

2,050

2,100

1,500

1,700

1,820

2,130

1,860

1,860

1,500

1,650

1,770

1,170

310

1,910

2,100

2,220

1,672

2,000

1,900

2,100

1,800

1,650

1,300

2,000

1,850

2,000

1,500

1,100

1,700

1,800

1,000

500

2,100

2,200

2,150

1,495

1,403

1,168

1,497

231

2,475

1,870

233

3,151

186

446

7,800

99

133

513

16

525

124

645

22,515

1,300

1,273

1,638

153

2,970

1,300

340

2,072

140

353

5,390

68

180

244

26

609

121

516

18,693

 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2 Updated from the August "Crop Production" report. 3 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 4 Cleaned basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 17 NASS, USDA

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield,

and Production by State and United States, 2003-2004 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

FL

US

8.5

6.1

14.6

13.0

5.7

18.7

8.5

5.8

14.3

13.0

5.5

18.5

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

FL

US

310

240

282

250

285

260

2,635

1,392

4,027

3,250

1,568

4,818

 1 2004 revised.

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and

United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

CT

FL

GA

IN

KY

MD

MA

MO 1

NC

OH

PA

SC

TN

VA

WV 1

WI

US

2,180

4,400

27,000

4,200

111,650

1,100

1,250

1,400

159,700

5,300

3,700

30,000

31,140

25,110

1,200

1,820

411,150

2,300

4,000

24,000

4,300

113,800

1,100

1,250

1,400

156,700

5,800

4,000

27,000

31,380

29,780

1,300

1,500

409,610

1,361

2,500

2,200

1,950

2,016

1,450

1,398

2,020

1,878

1,650

2,130

2,100

2,108

1,546

1,300

2,338

1,952

1,740

2,500

1,950

2,050

2,094

1,600

1,714

2,600

2,230

1,900

2,025

2,200

2,118

2,274

1,500

2,390

2,156

3,315

11,960

53,000

7,800

222,991

1,800

1,859

3,122

347,920

9,625

6,815

59,475

71,331

64,407

1,885

3,817

871,122

2,966

11,000

59,400

8,190

225,042

1,595

1,748

2,828

299,995

8,745

7,880

63,000

65,632

38,818

1,560

4,255

802,654

4,001

10,000

46,800

8,815

238,245

1,760

2,143

3,640

349,515

11,020

8,100

59,400

66,472

67,722

1,950

3,585

883,168

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 18 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,

State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured

 Type 11, Old Belts

 NC

 VA

 US

 Type 12, Eastern NC

 Belt

 NC

 Type 13, NC Border &

 SC Belt

 NC

 SC

 US

 Type 14, GA-FL Belt

 FL

 GA

 US

 Total 11-14

Class 2, Fire-cured

 Type 21, VA Belt

 VA

 Type 22, Eastern

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 23, Western

 District

 KY

 TN

 US

 Total 21-23

Class 3, Air-cured

 Class 3A, Light

 Air-cured

 Type 31, Burley

 IN

 KY

 MO 1

 NC

 OH

 TN

 VA

 WV 1

 US

 Type 32, Southern MD

 Belt

 MD

 PA

 US

 Total 31-32

40,000

18,000

58,000

94,000

20,000

30,000

50,000

4,400

27,000

31,400

233,400

550

2,600

5,200

7,800

2,500

400

2,900

11,250

4,200

103,000

1,400

5,700

5,300

25,000

6,500

1,200

152,300

1,100

1,300

2,400

154,700

43,000

23,000

66,000

89,000

19,400

27,000

46,400

4,000

24,000

28,000

229,400

720

2,700

5,400

8,100

2,500

420

2,920

11,740

4,300

105,000

1,400

5,300

5,800

25,000

6,000

1,300

154,100

1,100

2,200

3,300

157,400

1,770

1,690

1,745

1,955

1,915

2,100

2,026

2,500

2,200

2,242

1,957

1,525

3,080

2,980

3,013

3,530

3,350

3,505

3,067

1,950

1,925

2,020

1,250

1,650

1,900

1,150

1,300

1,850

1,450

2,000

1,748

1,848

2,300

2,400

2,335

2,250

2,200

2,200

2,200

2,500

1,950

2,029

2,237

1,850

3,200

3,000

3,067

3,600

3,400

3,571

3,118

2,050

2,000

2,600

1,450

1,900

1,900

1,850

1,500

1,958

1,600

1,800

1,733

1,953

70,800

30,420

101,220

183,770

38,300

63,000

101,300

11,000

59,400

70,400

456,690

839

8,008

15,496

23,504

8,825

1,340

10,165

34,508

8,190

198,275

2,828

7,125

8,745

47,500

7,475

1,560

281,698

1,595

2,600

4,195

285,893

98,900

55,200

154,100

200,250

42,680

59,400

102,080

10,000

46,800

56,800

513,230

1,332

8,640

16,200

24,840

9,000

1,428

10,428

36,600

8,815

210,000

3,640

7,685

11,020

47,500

11,100

1,950

301,710

1,760

3,960

5,720

307,430

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 19 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 (continued)

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 3, Air-cured

Class 3B, Dark

 Air-cured

 Type 35, One Sucker

 Belt

 KY

 TN

 US

 Type 36, Green River

 Belt

 KY

 Type 37, VA Sun-cured

 Belt

 VA

 Total 35-37

Class 4, Cigar Filler

 Type 41, PA Seedleaf

 PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder

 Class 5A, CT Valley

 Binder

 Type 51, CT Valley

 Broadleaf

 CT

 MA

 US

 Class 5B, WI Binder

 Type 54, Southern WI

 WI

 Type 55, Northern WI

 WI

 Total 54-55

 Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper

 Type 61, CT Valley

 Shade-grown

 CT

 MA

 US

All Cigar Types

 Total 41-61

All Tobacco

2,300

540

2,840

1,250

60

4,150

2,400

1,400

970

2,370

1,400

420

1,820

4,190

780

280

1,060

7,650

411,150

2,300

560

2,860

1,300

60

4,220

1,800

1,450

950

2,400

1,100

400

1,500

3,900

850

300

1,150

6,850

409,610

2,830

2,400

2,748

2,740

1,400

2,726

2,200

1,400

1,470

1,429

2,480

1,865

2,338

1,824

1,290

1,150

1,253

1,863

1,952

3,000

2,400

2,883

2,850

1,500

2,853

2,300

1,850

1,750

1,811

2,550

1,950

2,390

2,034

1,550

1,600

1,563

2,025

2,156

6,509

1,296

7,805

3,425

84

11,314

5,280

1,960

1,426

3,386

3,472

783

4,255

7,641

1,006

322

1,328

14,249

802,654

6,900

1,344

8,244

3,705

90

12,039

4,140

2,683

1,663

4,346

2,805

780

3,585

7,931

1,318

480

1,798

13,869

883,168

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 20 NASS, USDA

Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 1

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

CA

CO

ID

MI

MN

MT

NE

ND

OH

OR

WA

WY

US

50.2

27.4

207.0

178.0

487.0

51.5

42.4

255.0

1.9

9.8

4.0

33.7

1,347.9

49.0

33.4

192.0

163.0

479.0

52.2

47.6

256.0

1.6

12.5

3.8

35.9

1,326.0

36.5

23.5

29.2

19.1

20.6

25.4

20.3

20.4

24.2

30.7

40.3

22.3

22.7

37.3

22.7

27.1

18.5

19.6

21.0

20.0

19.5

21.5

29.0

37.6

21.8

21.5

38.0

22.7

27.1

19.0

19.9

21.0

20.0

19.5

21.5

29.0

37.6

22.5

21.7

1,832

644

6,044

3,400

10,032

1,308

861

5,202

46

301

161

752

30,583

1,862

758

5,203

3,097

9,532

1,096

952

4,992

34

363

143

808

28,840

 1 Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA

and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Sep 1 Oct 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

FL

HI

LA

TX

US

438.0

21.3

490.0

45.1

994.4

420.0

24.1

475.0

42.5

961.6

39.3

97.7

26.2

37.8

34.0

37.0

94.0

26.0

36.0

33.0

36.0

94.0

24.0

36.0

31.5

17,231

2,082

12,838

1,706

33,857

15,120

2,265

11,400

1,530

30,315

 1 Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 21 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA 4

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 6

 CA 6

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

200

42,000

112,000

1,350

155,550

270

20,000

91,000

220

111,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,800

5,500

8,730

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

300

38,000

126,000

1,420

165,720

170

14,000

116,000

230

130,400

470

52,000

242,000

1,650

296,120

1,400

15,900

25,000

140

5,400

40,900

5,700

52,140

690

2,700

6,500

9,890

3,000

18,000

21,000

1,000

270

46,000

92,000

1,650

139,920

170

16,000

84,000

250

100,420

440

62,000

176,000

1,900

240,340

800

4,000

11,000

200

5,200

15,000

5,900

26,300

500

2,900

4,700

8,100

2,400

19,500

21,900

1,400

8

1,575

5,040

57

6,680

10

751

4,095

9

4,865

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

957

4

187

1,646

226

2,063

16

105

261

382

114

912

1,026

105

12

1,426

5,670

60

7,168

6

526

5,220

10

5,762

18

1,952

10,890

70

12,930

63

675

1,063

5

181

1,738

228

2,152

25

101

309

435

114

684

798

45

10

1,725

4,140

70

5,945

6

600

3,780

11

4,397

16

2,325

7,920

81

10,342

36

170

468

7

174

638

236

1,055

19

109

223

351

91

741

832

63

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, Temples-90;

tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of

tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 22 NASS, USDA

Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,

2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 1

State

Total Production

2002 2003 2004

Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds

AZ 2

AR 2

CA 2

CO 2

CT 2

GA 2

ID 2

IL 2

IN 2

IA 2

KS 2

KY 2

ME 2

MD 2

MA 2

MI

MN 2

MO 2

NH 2

NJ 2

NM 3

NY

NC

OH 2

OR 2

PA

RI 2

SC 2

TN 2

UT 2

VT 2

VA

WA

WV

WI 2

US

26.2

3.3

470.0

21.0

12.0

10.0

80.0

43.0

40.0

8.5

2.5

5.6

48.5

32.0

33.0

520.0

25.0

38.0

26.5

35.0

2.0

680.0

160.0

70.0

202.0

370.0

2.6

9.0

7.2

7.0

31.0

250.0

5,100.0

95.0

58.0

8,523.9

7.0

2.6

450.0

22.0

21.5

13.0

70.0

52.5

51.0

6.0

3.4

7.5

44.0

40.0

42.5

840.0

27.0

40.0

26.0

40.0

2.0

990.0

135.0

90.0

133.0

442.0

2.3

6.0

12.0

28.0

42.0

270.0

4,500.0

87.0

68.0

8,613.3

30.0

2.8

440.0

24.0

20.0

14.0

100.0

56.0

50.0

11.0

4.8

8.0

45.0

34.0

41.0

690.0

26.0

36.0

28.0

40.0

1,070.0

125.0

89.0

170.0

416.0

2.3

6.0

10.0

27.0

36.0

260.0

5,400.0

85.0

62.0

9,458.9

 1 In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 2 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3 No forecast made. Only end of year estimates made.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 23 NASS, USDA

Pecans: Utilized Production by Variety, State, and United States,

2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

Crop and State

Utilized Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 LA

 MS

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TX

 US

Native & Seedling

 AL

 AR

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TX

 US

All Pecans

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TX

 US

4,000

16,000

1,200

3,800

500

42,000

2,000

2,100

36,000

1,500

1,500

120

20,000

130,720

1,000

500

900

3,000

2,900

4,000

900

400

8,500

80

20,000

42,180

5,000

16,000

1,700

3,800

1,400

45,000

2,900

6,000

3,000

36,000

1,900

10,000

200

40,000

172,900

7,000

22,500

1,400

3,700

500

60,000

4,000

4,800

55,000

2,200

1,500

3,300

37,000

202,900

1,000

2,400

1,600

15,000

2,000

16,000

2,200

300

4,500

1,200

33,000

79,200

8,000

22,500

3,800

3,700

2,100

75,000

2,000

20,000

7,000

55,000

2,500

6,000

4,500

70,000

282,100

950

13,000

1,300

3,400

200

35,000

2,000

700

37,000

600

4,000

1,500

30,000

129,650

50

900

300

5,000

2,500

6,000

300

100

24,000

500

20,000

59,650

1,000

13,000

2,200

3,400

500

40,000

2,500

8,000

1,000

37,000

700

28,000

2,000

50,000

189,300

 1 Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 24 NASS, USDA

Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004

State

Total Production

2002 2003 2004

Tons Tons Tons

 AZ 1

 AR 1

 CA

 All Types

 Wine

 Table 2

 Raisin 2 3

 GA 1

 MI

 MO 1

 NY

 NC 1

 OH 1

 OR 1

 PA

 TX 1

 VA 1

 WA

 All Types

 Wine

 Juice

 US

8,400

4,800

6,696,000

3,149,000

743,000

2,804,000

2,800

42,700

3,300

156,000

2,300

5,800

22,000

53,200

4,700

4,900

332,000

115,000

217,000

7,338,900

8,000

2,600

5,790,000

2,909,000

732,000

2,149,000

3,100

94,500

3,030

198,000

2,800

8,100

24,000

85,000

6,000

3,600

344,000

112,000

232,000

6,572,730

4,000

3,300

5,500,000

2,700,000

750,000

2,050,000

2,800

54,600

3,300

145,000

3,100

7,100

26,000

65,000

8,700

5,100

245,000

105,000

140,000

6,073,000

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2 Fresh basis. 3 The Raisin Industry Diversion Program (RID) was not implemented in 2004 or 2003, but was implemented on the 2002 bearing acres.

No production was realized from these acres. Acres enrolled are 27,000 for 2002.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2003 2004

2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Aug

Sep

2,370

2,370

2,185

1,990

1,565

1,565

1,385

1,050

3,240

3,025

2,680

2,715

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 25 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,348.0

78,736.0

4,597.0

730.0

3,022.0

1,348.0

9,420.0

62,141.0

45,384.0

2,915.0

13,842.0

1,082.0

595.0

110.0

1,344.0

1.3

221.0

73,404.0

2,344.0

13,479.6

13,301.0

178.6

1,365.4

21.1

1,406.1

337.5

246.0

1,272.6

14.6

88.6

63.4

1,106.0

95.8

4,527.0

80,968.0

4,085.0

720.0

3,364.0

1,380.0

7,528.0

59,674.0

43,350.0

2,561.0

13,763.0

868.0

629.0

68.5

1,429.0

11.8

142.0

75,065.0

1,864.0

13,763.0

13,508.0

255.0

1,349.8

25.5

1,373.4

480.0

300.0

1,188.8

18.7

73.5

58.8

1,037.8

99.1

4,727.0

71,139.0

6,528.0

63,342.0

23,578.0

39,764.0

2,220.0

620.0

2,997.0

319.0

7,798.0

343.0

53,063.0

36,753.0

2,869.0

13,441.0

1,068.0

583.0

107.0

1,312.0

1.2

212.0

72,476.0

2,197.0

12,003.4

11,826.0

177.4

1,347.9

994.4

411.2

15.6

1,346.9

328.5

237.0

5.9

0.2

28.7

78.2

1,248.6

14.3

84.7

58.7

1,090.9

15.8

92.6

0.4

4,031.0

73,311.0

61,589.0

22,226.0

39,363.0

1,807.0

3,334.0

320.0

6,559.0

50,204.0

34,462.0

2,448.0

13,294.0

832.0

608.0

65.9

1,388.0

11.4

133.0

73,990.0

1,780.0

13,223.0

12,970.0

253.0

1,326.0

961.6

409.6

16.6

1,250.1

454.0

293.0

0.2

28.0

1,168.1

18.5

71.7

55.1

1,022.8

96.3

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 26 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.9

142.2

16.2

2.48

3.24

2.03

65.0

18.5

6,645

27.1

52.7

10.4

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.5

1,416

17.9

723

3,159

949

1,286

33.9

1,213

730

723

1,170

22.7

34.0

1,952

1,115

1,672

1,584

1,030

1,407

37,500

1,903

89

367

282

288

320

376

113

172

69.5

158.4

2.69

3.48

2.25

64.5

6,763

26.9

70.4

43.1

43.5

37.0

43.1

1,517

2,972

42.0

1,346

782

771

1,357

21.7

31.5

2,156

1,495

40,000

1,982

260

266

336

278,283

10,113,887

105,864

157,123

76,307

80,816

144,383

11,450

199,157

8,634

411,237

3,552

2,344,760

1,716,721

96,637

531,402

1,512,250

6,664.6

10,426

77,372

4,144,150

1,139

272,555

2,453,665

2,665,226

18,255.2

17,822.9

432.3

30,583

33,857

802,654

174

22,515

5,202

2,442

673

8,300

6,000

54,565.1

6,924

457,814

4,027

24,433

18,766

410,588

1,778

15,891

5,000

280,103

11,613,226

165,920

77,371

88,549

116,505

225,488

8,615

461,857

2,163,520

1,499,434

90,468

573,618

1,261,820

7,879.0

4,125,400

3,106,861

2,395,199

21,545.0

20,830.0

715.0

28,840

30,315

883,168

18,693

6,000

55,537.9

4,818

19,077

18,487

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 27 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2003 2004 2005

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA) 3

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,063

1,026

11,545

105

382

59

8,613.3

97.6

22,500.0

6,572.7

118.0

42,600.0

2,519.0

928.1

181.0

16.3

1,040,000

37.9

282,100

119,000

326.0

1,260

2,152

798

12,930

45

435

63

9,458.9

95.6

6,073.0

85.0

2,598.4

908.0

70.0

24.5

1,080,000

44.0

189,300

325.0

1,507

1,055

832

10,342

63

351

36

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2002-03, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3 September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004

Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 28 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,164,280

31,863,670

1,860,360

295,420

1,222,970

545,520

3,812,180

25,147,840

18,366,450

1,179,670

5,601,720

437,870

240,790

44,520

543,900

530

89,440

29,705,860

948,590

5,455,060

5,382,780

72,280

552,560

8,540

569,030

136,580

99,550

515,010

5,910

35,860

25,660

447,590

38,770

1,832,030

32,766,940

1,653,160

291,380

1,361,380

558,470

3,046,510

24,149,470

17,543,310

1,036,410

5,569,750

351,270

254,550

27,720

578,300

4,780

57,470

30,378,050

754,340

5,569,750

5,466,550

103,200

546,250

10,320

555,800

194,250

121,410

481,100

7,570

29,740

23,800

419,990

40,100

1,912,970

28,789,240

2,641,820

25,633,870

9,541,780

16,092,090

898,410

250,910

1,212,860

129,100

3,155,770

138,810

21,474,070

14,873,570

1,161,060

5,439,440

432,210

235,930

43,300

530,950

490

85,790

29,330,310

889,100

4,857,660

4,785,860

71,790

545,480

402,420

166,390

6,310

545,080

132,940

95,910

2,390

60

11,600

31,650

505,300

5,790

34,280

23,760

441,480

6,390

37,470

170

1,631,310

29,668,230

24,924,450

8,994,640

15,929,810

731,270

1,349,240

129,500

2,654,360

20,317,060

13,946,430

990,680

5,379,950

336,700

246,050

26,670

561,710

4,610

53,820

29,943,010

720,350

5,351,220

5,248,830

102,390

536,620

389,150

165,770

6,720

505,900

183,730

118,570

60

11,340

472,720

7,490

29,020

22,300

413,920

38,970

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 29 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.17

8.92

36.35

5.56

7.25

4.56

2.33

1.03

7.45

1.70

3.31

23.21

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.66

1.59

1.12

0.81

3.54

1.06

1.44

2.28

1.36

0.82

0.81

1.31

50.86

76.32

2.19

1.25

1.87

1.77

1.15

1.58

42.03

2.13

0.10

41.10

31.56

32.33

35.83

42.19

0.13

19.23

3.74

9.94

6.04

7.80

5.04

2.31

7.58

1.69

4.42

2.90

2.93

2.49

2.90

1.70

3.33

2.82

1.51

0.88

0.86

1.52

48.76

70.67

2.42

1.68

44.83

2.22

29.19

29.82

37.61

6,058,900

256,904,560

96,038,210

142,539,590

69,224,550

73,315,040

2,095,710

259,680

9,033,610

219,310

10,445,900

3,222,320

63,813,910

46,721,490

2,630,030

14,462,390

685,950

6,046,020

264,830

35,100

1,879,750

520

123,630

66,777,820

1,208,930

3,974,600

3,880,480

94,120

27,744,430

30,714,550

364,080

7,890

1,021,260

235,960

110,770

30,530

3,760

2,720

24,750

3,140

20,766,100

182,660

1,108,260

851,210

18,623,960

810

720,800

2,270

6,098,520

294,989,530

150,520,090

70,189,790

80,330,300

1,691,070

10,227,960

218,830

11,731,710

58,881,370

40,807,910

2,462,140

15,611,320

572,350

7,147,710

1,871,250

84,554,900

1,086,440

4,690,870

4,535,200

155,670

26,163,210

27,501,310

400,600

847,900

2,720

25,190

218,540

865,320

838,560

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 30 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2003 2004 2005

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA) 3

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

95,250

346,540

53,520

3,906,930

88,520

10,210

5,962,680

107,050

19,320

1,142,600

841,910

164,200

14,790

471,740

34,380

127,960

53,980

295,740

6,300

1,952,260

723,930

11,729,900

40,820

394,630

57,150

4,290,490

86,680

5,509,330

77,110

1,178,610

823,760

63,500

22,230

489,880

39,920

85,870

294,840

7,530

957,080

754,780

9,382,100

57,150

318,420

32,660

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full

2004 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05. 3 September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004

Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 31 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 corn producing States

during 2004. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to

obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are rounded actual field counts from this survey.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,

Selected States, 2000-2004

State Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

KS 1

MN

MO 2

NE

 All

NE

 Irrigated

NE

 Non-Irrigated

OH

SD 2

WI

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

25,500

25,450

25,450

25,450

24,500

24,550

24,650

24,650

26,000

25,600

25,650

25,650

27,350

27,350

27,250

27,250

22,800

22,750

22,700

22,750

26,500

26,350

26,350

26,350

17,550

17,500

17,500

17,500

24,450

24,250

23,950

24,100

26,100

25,500

25,550

25,550

25,650

25,550

25,550

25,550

25,500

25,350

25,400

25,400

25,450

25,350

25,250

25,250

27,500

26,750

26,700

26,700

22,200

21,950

22,050

22,050

25,550

25,350

25,350

25,350

18,050

17,800

18,000

18,000

25,550

25,250

25,150

25,100

26,100

26,100

26,100

26,100

25,050

25,050

25,000

25,000

23,900

23,650

23,650

23,650

25,950

25,800

25,800

25,800

26,550

26,150

26,100

26,100

21,650

21,250

21,200

21,200

25,800

25,700

25,650

25,650

16,700

15,950

15,950

15,950

23,700

22,400

22,350

22,350

25,950

25,050

25,250

25,250

26,700

26,700

26,650

26,650

25,350

25,400

25,350

25,350

26,700

26,550

26,600

26,600

28,300

28,650

28,600

28,600

22,950

22,650

22,600

22,600

26,550

26,350

26,300

26,300

18,300

17,850

17,800

17,800

25,500

25,700

25,750

25,750

26,150

26,300

26,250

26,250

27,350

27,400

26,200

25,950

27,350

27,550

25,350

25,400

29,000

29,250

24,400

24,250

23,650

24,000

26,550

26,700

19,100

19,800

25,950

26,000

21,950

22,700

25,600

27,150

 1 Field counts began in 2004. 2 Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 1996.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 32 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 11 soybean producing States

during 2004. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain

specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet,

Selected States, 2000-2004

State Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Number Number Number Number Number

AR 1 2

IL

IN

IA

KS 3

MN

MO

NE

ND 3

OH

SD 3

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

2,678

1,859

1,835

2,162

1,996

2,020

2,021

1,917

1,786

1,784

1,784

1,830

1,674

1,660

1,660

1,607

1,509

1,507

1,507

1,974

1,769

1,782

1,793

1,795

1,617

1,619

1,619

1,893

1,625

1,685

1,697

2,260

1,867

1,817

2,041

1,932

1,932

1,932

2,003

1,882

1,880

1,869

1,809

1,778

1,787

1,796

1,492

1,433

1,475

1,475

1,424

1,732

1,874

1,921

1,961

1,932

2,003

2,048

1,801

1,834

1,785

1,785

1,952

1,785

1,795

1,802

1,773

1,677

1,680

1,680

1,988

1,828

1,867

1,867

1,688

1,785

1,739

1,715

1,427

1,609

1,681

1,705

1,548

1,517

1,587

1,592

1,593

1,495

1,499

1,492

1,800

1,606

1,634

1,634

1,786

1,692

1,582

1,582

1,749

1,629

1,647

1,647

1,582

1,417

1,440

1,440

1,144

1,455

1,547

1,523

1,727

1,642

1,636

1,636

1,791

1,898

1,764

1,752

2,446

2,070

1,923

1,909

1,866

1,772

1,731

1,482

1,588

1,487

1,406

1,798

1,943

1,835

1,836

1,114

1,148

1,808

1,873

1,248

1,332

 1 September data not available due to plant immaturity. 2 Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 2002. 3 Field counts began in 2004.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 33 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during

2004. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific

counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 2000-2004 1

State Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

CA

GA

LA

MS

NC

TX

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

874

767

755

755

755

760

790

801

800

800

597

631

621

629

629

722

692

674

674

674

657

665

652

650

650

670

724

743

747

747

408

388

397

404

448

747

780

816

756

756

939

902

921

918

918

590

677

651

664

664

625

592

582

588

588

754

696

680

679

679

719

722

696

705

705

441

435

439

445

445

840

763

784

772

772

945

1,041

1,009

1,011

1,011

569

604

591

600

608

663

756

749

742

742

802

783

768

767

767

636

629

560

567

564

536

511

520

497

497

798

755

744

744

744

973

945

893

893

893

559

646

643

665

664

681

778

775

775

775

837

824

811

808

808

628

630

632

632

632

465

431

429

435

433

864

771

954

952

646

690

635

707

808

789

758

719

639

672

 1 Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened

bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 34 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 35 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 36 NASS, USDA

September Weather Summary

The Atlantic Basin remained a breeding ground for hurricane activity from late August through mid-September,

spawning Hurricanes Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. The first three of those hurricanes struck the eastern United

States, and Frances and Jeanne made landfall in the same location along Florida’s east coast just 3 weeks apart. 

Direct hurricane strikes on Florida by Charley (August 13), Frances (September 4-5), and Jeanne (September 25-

26) marked the first triple hurricane blow to one state in a single season since 1964, when Florida endured landfalls

from Hurricanes Cleo, Dora, and Isbell in a 7-week span. In addition, Ivan made landfall on September 16 near

Gulf Shores, AL, blasting southern Alabama and western Florida with high winds, heavy rain, and a large storm

surge. The remnants of Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne all moved northward across the East, resulting in monthly rainfall

totals in excess of 2 feet at some locations in the southern Appalachians and causing widespread flooding as far

north as the northern Mid-Atlantic States. In parts of Alabama and Georgia, the storms battered open-boll cotton

and hampered fieldwork, including peanut harvesting.

Farther west, a band of September dryness prevailed from the western and central Gulf Coast States northeastward

across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes region. The dry conditions promoted crop

maturation and harvesting, but stressed pastures and late-developing summer crops. Meanwhile, a second band of

wet weather stretched from the southern Rockies and southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Midwest. 

Although September rain in the nation’s mid-section was generally beneficial for maturing summer crops and newly

planted winter wheat, excessively wet conditions developed toward month’s end on the southern High Plains. In

western Texas, late-September downpours halted fieldwork and increased concerns about the quality of open-boll

cotton. Farther west, the remnants of eastern Pacific Hurricane Javier contributed to wetter-than-normal weather in

the Four Corners region. Southwestern showers boosted topsoil moisture and aided pastures, but provided only

limited relief from long-term drought. Meanwhile in the Northwest, scattered showers and near-normal

temperatures maintained generally favorable conditions for emerging winter grains. In contrast, sub-soil moisture

shortages on the northern High Plains remained a concern with respect to winter wheat establishment and pasture

conditions.

September Crop Summary

Three hurricanes hit the Southeast during September. On September 5, Frances made landfall along Florida’s east

coast, with sustained winds of over 100 miles per hour. Citrus crops, already damaged by Hurricane Charley in

August, received additional damage. Ivan hit the Alabama Gulf Coast on September 16, causing extensive wind

damage to cotton and peanuts in southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle. On September 26, Jeanne made

landfall in almost the same spot as Frances 3 weeks earlier, dealing yet another blow to Florida’s citrus groves. The

three systems, as they moved further inland and weakened to tropical storms, followed similar tracks between the

Appalachians and the east coast, dumping heavy rainfall from Florida to Pennsylvania. Open boll cotton in the

southern Atlantic Coast States was particularly vulnerable to the excessive rainfall, with crop conditions in Georgia

and South Carolina declining significantly. Further west, conditions were warm and dry across the lower and

middle Mississippi Valley, favoring maturation and harvest of summer crops. In the northern Corn Belt and

adjacent areas of the Great Plains, where a cool summer had greatly delayed corn and soybean development, above

normal temperatures prevailed during September but hopes for a timely harvest dwindled as progress remained well

behind normal. Cool, dry weather prevailed across the southern Great Plains early in the month, favoring winter

wheat planting. However, conditions were warmer and wetter after mid-month, aiding winter wheat emergence but

slowing harvest of summer crops. In the Rocky Mountains, temperatures were mostly below normal, often

dropping below freezing, while heavy precipitation, including some snow, around mid-month helped to replenish

soil moisture. Dry conditions prevailed along the west coast through most of the month, encouraging fieldwork and

harvest activity.

Ninety-five percent of the Nation’s corn acreage was at or beyond the dough stage on September 12, two percentage

points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Doughing was at or near completion in most areas but was well

behind normal across the upper Midwest, from the Dakotas to Wisconsin. Progress had fallen behind during the

summer, when below-normal temperatures prevailed in this area, and failed to gain ground during September

despite warm weather. By October 3, denting had reached 97 percent complete, compared with 99 percent for last

year and the 5-year average. Again, the crop was well behind average in the northern Great Plains and northern

Corn Belt, trailing the normal pace by over 2 weeks in Minnesota and Wisconsin and by over 3 weeks in North

Dakota. At that time, 74 percent of the crop was mature, 13 points behind last year and 15 points behind normal. 

Only 17 percent of North Dakota’s crop was mature, 73 points behind the 5-year average of 90 percent. Maturation

was 56 points behind normal in Minnesota, 42 points behind in Wisconsin, and 35 points behind in South Dakota. 

Harvest was 23 percent complete at month’s end, 1 point behind last year and 5 points behind normal. Growers in

the central and southern Great Plains were over 1 week behind normal, mostly due to wet field conditions

hampering fieldwork.

The sorghum crop turned color 1 week behind the normal pace throughout September, ending the month with

92 percent of the acreage at or beyond the coloring stage compared with 95 percent for the 5-year average. At
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 37 NASS, USDA

month’s end, 63 percent of the crop was mature, 1 point behind last year and 15 points behind normal. Maturation

was over 1 week behind the normal pace throughout the Great Plains. As of October 3, thirty-eight percent of the

acreage had been harvested, over 2 weeks behind the average. Texas growers were over 4 weeks behind their

normal harvest pace, while growers in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota were over 2 weeks behind. Only in

Illinois and Louisiana was harvest progress ahead of normal.

The Nation’s oat crop was 96 percent harvested on September 19, four points behind last year and 3 points behind

normal. Though harvest was complete in most States, progress lagged well behind the normal pace in Minnesota

and North Dakota due to below-normal summer temperatures and the resulting developmental delays.

Barley harvest had reached 96 percent complete by September 26, compared with 100 percent last year and

98 percent for the 5-year average. Development was delayed in the easternmost part of the major growing area due

to the mild summer temperatures. Harvest progress was 3 weeks behind in Minnesota and 1 week behind in North

Dakota.

Winter wheat planting had begun across the Nation by September 26. A week later, 58 percent of the acreage had

been planted, 1 point behind last year but 4 points ahead of normal. Planting was most advanced in Colorado, at

91 percent complete, followed by Montana and Nebraska, at 86 and 85 percent complete, respectively. Meanwhile,

emergence also progressed ahead of the normal pace, reaching 29 percent on October 3, one point ahead of last year

and 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Over half of the crop had emerged in Colorado and Nebraska. Though

emergence was at or near normal in most States, Montana’s crop, at 43 percent, was 20 points ahead of normal.

The spring wheat crop also developed slowly during the summer, delaying harvest. At month’s end, harvest was

just 94 percent complete, 2 weeks behind normal. Again, the harvest delay was mostly due to developmental delays

in Minnesota and North Dakota, where growers were over 2 weeks behind the average harvest pace.

Over two-thirds of the rice crop was harvested in the 5 weeks between August 30 and October 3. At the end of this

period, 85 percent of the crop had been harvested, 9 points ahead of last year and 7 points ahead of normal. 

Encouraged by warm, dry weather in all growing areas, harvest advanced rapidly. Although Arkansas producers

began the month 6 points behind their normal harvest pace, 3 consecutive weeks of 20-point advances put them

2 points ahead of normal by month’s end.

The soybean crop progressed steadily through the leaf dropping stage, advancing from 6 percent complete on

August 29 to 86 percent complete on October 3, which was the same as last year but 2 points behind normal. 

Progress was farthest behind in the northern Corn Belt, trailing the normal pace by 22 points in Michigan and

Wisconsin, due to planting delays and slow development during the mild summer. Harvest had begun in all States

by month’s end, reaching 36 percent complete nationwide, 5 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the

5-year average. Harvest progress varied widely, from as much as 30 points ahead of normal in Mississippi to

1 week behind normal in the Dakotas and Minnesota.

At month’s end, 3 percent of the sunflower crop had been harvested, compared with 15 percent last year and

11 percent for the 5-year average. Of the 4 major producing States, harvest had begun in Colorado, Kansas, and

South Dakota, but North Dakota growers had no significant progress reported. Only in Colorado was progress

ahead of the normal pace, while Kansas and South Dakota growers were 16 points behind normal.

The peanut harvest had begun in all States by September 19. However, harvest progress was delayed by heavy

rainfall from the 3 hurricanes that hit the Southeast during September. On October 3, thirty percent of the acreage

had been harvested, 3 points behind last year and 5 points behind normal. Harvest progress was most delayed in

Georgia, where growers had harvested just 27 percent of their acreage, 13 points behind normal. Alabama

producers had fallen 14 points behind their normal pace in the wake of Ivan but progressed rapidly in the final week

of September, finishing the month with 44 percent of their acreage harvested, 3 points behind normal.

Bolls opened behind the normal pace for the Nation’s cotton crop. In early September, the biggest delays were in

the Delta, where below-normal temperatures in August slowed development. However, by month’s end, progress

was back to near-normal levels in the Delta, while Texas’s crop had slipped to over 2 weeks behind, again due to

cool weather. Meanwhile, harvest advanced to 20 percent complete nationwide, 1 point ahead of last year but

5 points behind normal. Growers in Louisiana, Missouri, and Tennessee were 1 week behind their normal pace,

while Texas producers were 2 weeks behind. Condition of the crop declined along the Atlantic Coast and eastern

Gulf Coast as heavy precipitation from 3 hurricanes soaked fields with vulnerable open bolls.

The sugarbeet harvest was underway in the 4 major producing States by September 26. A week later, 19 percent of

the acreage had been harvested, 12 points behind last year and 8 points behind the 5-year average. Progress was

behind normal in all States, with the biggest delay in Michigan, where growers had harvested just 2 percent of their

crop, 23 points behind normal, due to warm weather preventing piling.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 38 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Based on administrative data, updates to planted acreage were made in several States. However,

total planted acreage remains unchanged at the National level. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain was

also revised in a number of States and is now forecast at 73.3 million acres, down 66,000 acres from September but

up 3 percent from 2003.

The October 1 corn objective yield data indicate the highest stalk count on record for the combined ten objective

yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). 

In a program expansion, objective yield data are now being collected for Kansas, Missouri, and South Dakota. The

October 1 objective yield forecasted ears per acre are also at a record high, 3 percent above the previous record high

set last year. 

As of October 3, seventy-three percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, up 6 percentage points from last

month and 23 points above a year ago. Doughing was at or near completion in most areas but was well behind

normal across the upper Midwest, from the Dakotas to Wisconsin. Progress had fallen behind during the summer,

when below-normal temperatures prevailed in this area, and failed to gain ground during September despite warm

weather. By October 3, denting had reached 97 percent complete, compared with 99 percent for last year and the

5-year average. Again, the crop was well behind average in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt,

trailing the normal pace by over 2 weeks in Minnesota and Wisconsin and by over 3 weeks in North Dakota.

At the beginning of October, 74 percent of the crop was mature, 13 points behind last year and 15 points behind

normal. Only 17 percent of North Dakota’s crop was mature, 73 points behind the 5-year average of 90 percent. 

Maturation was 56 points behind normal in Minnesota, 42 points behind in Wisconsin, and 35 points behind in

South Dakota. Harvest was 23 percent complete at month’s end, 1 point behind last year and 5 points behind

normal. Growers in the central and southern Great Plains were over 1 week behind normal, mostly due to wet field

conditions hampering fieldwork.

Sorghum: Production is forecast at 462 million bushels, down 2 percent from last month but up 12 percent from

last year. Based on October 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is 70.4 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bushels from

September and up 17.7 bushels from last year. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 6.56 million acres, down

5 percent from last month and 16 percent below last year. Based on administrative information, acreage updates

were made in several States. Planted area was updated to 7.53 million acres, down 7 percent from the June acreage

estimate and down 20 percent from 2003. Yield increases from last month are expected in 7 of the top 11

producing States. Kansas, the largest producer, expects a yield of 75 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. 

Texas, the second leading producer, expects a yield of 65.0 bushels, 4.0 bushels above last month. 

As of October 3, harvest had begun in all of the top 11 States, except New Mexico. In these States, the crop was

63 percent mature, slightly behind last year, and well below the 5-year average of 78 percent. In September, cool

temperatures and moderate to heavy rainfall throughout much of the Great Plains caused slow development and

harvest progress to lag behind normal. Nationwide, harvest progressed to 38 percent complete, behind last year’s

pace of 40 percent and the 5-year average of 53 percent. Crop condition as of October 3 was rated 61 percent good

to excellent compared to 23 percent last year.

Rice: Production is forecast at 225 million cwt, up 2 percent from September and up 13 percent from 2003. 

Harvested area, at 3.33 million acres, is unchanged from last month but is 11 percent above 2003. As of October 1,

the U.S. all rice yield is forecast at a record high 6,763 pounds per acre. This yield is up 112 pounds from the

September forecast and up 118 pounds from the record high yield established in 2003.

As of October 3, the pace of rice harvest exceeded the 5-year average in all 6 estimating States. Harvest in Texas is

complete and harvest in Louisiana, at 99 percent, is nearly complete. Mississippi harvest, at 94 percent complete,

exceeded the 5-year average by 14 percentage points. Arkansas harvest, at 85 percent complete, is 2 percentage

points ahead of the 5-year average. In Missouri, harvest was 73 percent complete while California’s harvest was

65 percent complete, exceeding their 5-year averages by 8 and 22 percentage points, respectively.

Soybeans: Updates to planted acreage were made in several States based on administrative data. Area planted is

up slightly from the August estimate to 75.1 million acres and up 2 percent from 2003. Growers expect to harvest

74.0 million acres of soybeans, up fractionally from September and up 2 percent from 2003. The October objective

yield pod counts are forecasted up 3 percent from last month and up 12 percent from 2003. If realized, pod counts

from the October Objective Yield survey will be the highest on record in Arkansas, Missouri, and Ohio. Only

Minnesota has a lower pod count this year than in 2003. 

As of October 3, eighty-six percent of the soybean crop had dropped leaves, equal to last year but 2 percentage

points behind normal. Crop maturity was most advanced in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Nebraska, and

South Dakota, where 93 percent or more of the crop had already dropped leaves. Soybean harvest was progressing

ahead of normal as of October 3, with 36 percent harvested compared to an average of the 32 percent, lead by the
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 39 NASS, USDA

Corn Belt and Delta States. However, harvest progress was significantly behind in Minnesota, North Dakota, and

South Dakota due to cool summer temperatures slowing maturity. Sixty-six percent of the soybean crop was rated

good to excellent, 2 points higher than the August 29 rating and 18 percentage points above the rating of the same

week a year ago.

Sunflower: The first sunflower production forecast for 2004 is 2.40 billion pounds, down 10 percent from 2003

and 2 percent below 2002. Area planted, at 1.86 million acres, is down 1 percent from the June estimate and down

20 percent from last year. Sunflower farmers expect to harvest 1.78 million acres, down 1 percent from June and

down 19 percent from the 2003 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,346 pounds, is 133 pounds more than the

2003 yield.

As of October 1, higher yields are expected in 5 of the 7 major sunflower-producing States (Colorado, Kansas,

Nebraska, South Dakota, and Texas). Due to excellent growing conditions, record yields are expected in both

Kansas and Texas. In North Dakota, the yield is forecast at 1,300 pounds per acre, down slightly from last year’s

1,304 pound yield. As of October 3, harvest progress in Kansas and the Dakotas was lagging behind 2003 and the

5-year average, while Colorado harvest was just ahead of normal.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.13 billion pounds, down 7 percent from last month and down fractionally

from 2003. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.39 million acres, down fractionally from September but up

6 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,972 pounds per acre, down 216 pounds from September

and down 187 pounds from 2003.

Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.76 billion

pounds, down 10 percent from September and down fractionally from last year. Expected area for harvest, at

968,000 acres, is down 1 percent from September but up 13 percent from 2003. Yields in the 4-State region are

expected to average 2,852 pounds per acre, 313 pounds below September and 386 pounds below last year. As of

October 3, peanut harvest in Alabama, at 44 percent complete, lagged the 5-year average by 3 percentage points. 

Florida’s harvest, at 50 percent complete, lagged the 5-year average by 6 percentage points and Georgia, at

27 percent complete, lagged the average by 13 percentage points.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 435 million pounds, unchanged from September but up 5 percent

from 2003. Area for harvest is expected to total 137,000 acres, unchanged from September but up 3 percent from

last year. Yield is forecast at 3,177 pounds per acre, unchanged from September but up 51 pounds per acre from

last year. As of October 3, peanut harvest was 28 percent complete in North Carolina and Virginia harvest was

41 percent complete, exceeding the 5-year averages by 15 and 5 percentage points, respectively.

Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 929 million pounds, up

fractionally from September but down 3 percent from 2003. The region’s area for harvest, at 283,000 acres, is

unchanged from last month but down 12 percent from 2003. Yields are expected to average 3,283 pounds per acre

across the region, up 11 pounds per acre from September and up 321 pounds per acre from 2003. As of October 3,

peanut harvest in Oklahoma, at 15 percent complete, lagged the 5-year average by 3 percentage points; whereas

Texas harvest, at 19 percent complete, exceeded the 5-year average by 3 percentage points.

Canola: The first canola production forecast for 2004 is 1.26 billion pounds, down 17 percent from 2003. Area

planted, at 868,000 acres, is down 8 percent from the June estimate and down 20 percent from last year. Canola

farmers expect to harvest 832,000 acres, down 9 percent from June and down 22 percent from 2003. The October

yield forecast, at 1,517 pounds per acre, is 101 pounds above last year and 69 pounds above the record yield of

1992. North Dakota's yield, at 1,530 pounds per acre, is up 120 pounds from 2003 and, if realized, would be the

best yield since estimates began in 1992. The canola yield in Minnesota is forecast at 1,350 pounds per acre, down

470 pounds from the record high yield of last year.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 13.0 million acres, is the same as last month but 10 percent above 2003. 

Based on additional survey and administrative data, Alabama expects to harvest 10,000 acres less than September,

while Mississippi harvested area increased by 10,000 acres. American-Pima harvested area, at 253,000 acres, is the

same as last month but up 43 percent from last year.

During the month of September, three Hurricanes (Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) crossed over the Southeast. Damage

reported included plants that were blown over and twisted and cotton that was knocked out of the bolls. Producers

were concerned that the bolls may become hard locked if they received more rain. Alabama, Florida, and Georgia

producers expanded defoliation with the return of drier weather conditions at the end of September. 

Harvesting in the Delta region was limited to extreme southern areas at the beginning of the month. Defoliation

was delayed until after dissipation of adverse weather associated with Hurricane Ivan. Ideal growing conditions

benefitted the crop during the middle of the month in the northern portion of the region. Toward the end of the
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 40 NASS, USDA

month, harvest expanded throughout the Delta but remained behind normal in most States due to below normal

temperatures during the growing season.

In Texas, harvest was winding down in southern areas of the State by mid-September and was nearly complete in

central locations by the end of the month. The cotton crop in the Plains area was two weeks behind normal,

because heat units were below normal throughout most of the growing season. Producers were defoliating and

harvesting between rain showers. Cooler than normal temperatures slowed the development of Oklahoma’s and

Kansas’ cotton crops which had previously been ahead of average maturity.

California upland cotton producers experienced extremely cooperative weather, promoting rapid growth and steady

development. The crop continues to mature ahead of the 5-year average. All of California’s cotton continued to be

rated good to excellent at the end of September. Whitefly population was more prevalent this month but remained

under control. Harvest was underway in the San Joaquin Valley. Objective yield survey data indicate California's

boll counts are higher than the previous ten years.

American-Pima production is forecast at 715,000 bales, up slightly from September and up 65 percent from 2003. 

The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,357 pounds per harvested acre, up 10 pounds from the September forecast. If

realized, this would be 15 pounds above the record high yield established in 2002.

Ginnings totaled 2,221,600 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 2,001,150 running bales ginned prior

to the same date last year and 1,656,350 running bales in 2002.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Production is forecast at 77.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from the August

forecast but up 1 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 3.48 tons per acre, unchanged from August

but 0.24 ton above last year. Harvested area is 22.2 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down

6 percent from 2003. 

Yields are at or above last year’s level in all but 7 States. Across most of the Great Plains and Corn Belt, weather

conditions throughout the growing season have been favorable. Sufficient moisture in the spring favored early

season development, while frequent precipitation during the summer months aided growth. In California, the

central and northern parts of the State experienced ideal weather conditions, but yield increases were limited by a

shortage of irrigation water supplies.

Other Hay: Production is forecast at 88.5 million tons, up 5 percent from August and up 10 percent from 2003. 

Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 2.25 tons, up 0.10 ton from August and 0.22 ton

above last year. If realized, both yield and production would be the highest on record. Harvested area is

39.4 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but down 1 percent from the previous year. 

Yields are at or above last year’s level in all but 4 States. Record high yields were set in Kansas, Mississippi,

Missouri, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington. In the Ohio Valley and Great Plains States,

mild summer temperatures and adequate rainfall throughout the growing season allowed for ideal growing

conditions. In Texas, some areas received moderate to heavy precipitation during September, which allowed for

additional cuttings in these areas.

Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 18.7 million cwt for 2004, down 12 percent from the

August forecast and 17 percent below last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.25 million acres, 4 percent below

the August forecast and down 7 percent from last year. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,495 pounds per acre,

a decrease of 144 pounds from the August forecast and 177 pounds below last year. Planted acres are estimated at

1.37 million acres, an increase of 1 percent from earlier forecasts but a 2 percent decrease from 2003.

Since August, production forecasts have decreased 32 percent in Minnesota, 30 percent in North Dakota, and

13 percent and 2 percent in Wyoming and Idaho, respectively. Michigan’s production forecast is virtually

unchanged. The decreases in Minnesota and North Dakota are due mainly to early frosts in mid-August that

severely damaged the crop. In North Dakota, only 35 percent of the crop was fully podded when the frost occurred. 

Some fields were unable to be harvested because of the damage. North Dakota and Minnesota producers expect to

abandon 70,000 acres and 15,000 acres, respectively, mostly due to the early frost. Heavy rains have also added to

the reduced production in these 2 States.

Production is expected to be lower than last year in 11 of the 18 producing States. All 11 States with lower

production are harvesting less acres than last year, while 7 of the 11 also have lower yields than in 2003. Texas

production is down 52 percent and Nebraska and Kansas are both down 34 percent. North Dakota and Oregon

producers expect a reduction of 31 percent and Minnesota producers expect a 30 percent decrease. New Mexico

production is down 25 percent, New York 21 percent, Wyoming 20 percent, California 7 percent, and Wisconsin a

2 percent decline. In Michigan, optimal growing conditions in September overcame the summer’s below normal

growing degree days. Harvest was ahead of normal by the end of September. In Nebraska harvest is moving
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 41 NASS, USDA

slowly with yields below average. Growers in California have begun harvesting blackeyes and the crop is in good

condition. Harvest in Wyoming is behind the 5 year average and the quality of the crop is below last year. Overall

weather conditions in Texas have been good for dry beans but some loses were reported due to hail damage. 

Production in Idaho increased 9 percent from last year due mainly to a summer with less severe heat than last year. 

In Colorado, the weather was generally favorable with adequate water throughout the growing season, resulting in a

9 percent increase in production. Production in Washington is up 16 percent from last year due to an increase in

acres and yield.

Winter Potatoes: Production for 2004 is revised to 4.82 million cwt, up 38 percent from the April forecast and

20 percent above 2003. Harvested area of 18,500 acres in the 2 winter potato States (California and Florida) is

32 percent above the April 1 forecast and 29 percent more than last year. The average yield of 260 cwt per acre is

up 10 cwt from the April forecast but 22 cwt below 2003. California's production, at 3.25 million cwt, is 23 percent

above last season. Florida's production, at 1.57 million cwt, is up 13 percent from a year ago. 

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 883 million pounds, virtually unchanged from the September

forecast but up 10 percent from 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 409,610 acres, 1 percent below September and

down less than 1 percent from 2003. Yields for 2004 are expected to average 2,156 pounds per acre, 22 pounds

higher than last month’s forecast and 204 pounds above a year ago. Yields in North Carolina, the leading tobacco

producing State, are expected to average 2,230 pounds per acre, 15 pounds more than September and 352 pounds

more than a year ago. An increase in Flue-cured yields since last month in North Carolina more than offset a

decrease in Burley yields. In Kentucky, the second leading State, growers expect to have yields averaging

2,094 pounds per acre, 46 pounds more than last month and 78 pounds more than 2003. Growers in Florida,

Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin expect lower yields than a month ago, while Georgia and Virginia

producers expect higher yields. All other States remain unchanged since September.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 513 million pounds, up less than 1 percent since last month and up

12 percent since last year. Growers plan to harvest 229,400 acres in 2004, down 1 percent from September and

2 percent below 2003. Yields are expected to average 2,237 pounds per acre, 22 pounds higher than last month and

280 pounds above a year ago. Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia growers reported increases in Flue-cured

yields from last month. 

Burley production is expected to total 302 million pounds, virtually unchanged since September but up 7 percent

since 2003. Growers plan to harvest 154,100 acres, down 1 percent since last month but up 1 percent since last

year. Yields are expected to average 1,958 pounds per acre, up 29 pounds since last month and 108 pounds more

than a year ago. Growers in Kentucky, the leading Burley producing State, forecast production at 210 million

pounds, up 3 percent since last month and 6 percent above 2003. However, production in Virginia is forecast at

11.1 million pounds, down 20 percent from August. Heavy rains from hurricanes have caused problems with the

Burley crop in the southwest regions of Virginia. This decrease in production in Virginia offsets the increase in

production in Kentucky.

Fire-cured tobacco production is expected to total 36.6 million pounds, virtually unchanged since September but up

6 percent since last year. Growers plan to harvest 11,740 acres, up less than 1 percent since last month and

4 percent above a year ago. The expected average yield is 3,118 pounds per acre, 2 pounds less than last month but

51 pounds more than a year ago.

Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production is expected to total 5.72 million pounds, 10 percent lower than

September but 36 percent higher than 2003. A total of 3,300 acres is expected to be harvested this year, unchanged

since last month but up 38 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 1,733 pounds per acre,

200 pounds less than last month and 15 pounds less than last year.

Dark air-cured production is expected to total 12.0 million pounds, down 1 percent since September but up

6 percent since 2003. Growers plan to harvest 4,220 acres, down less than 1 percent since last month but up

2 percent since last year. Yields are expected to average 2,853 pounds per acre, down 24 pounds since last month

but up 127 pounds since last year.

All Cigar production is expected to total 13.9 million pounds, down 3 percent from both September and the

previous year. Growers of cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 6,850 acres, 2 percent less than last month and

10 percent less than a year ago. Overall yield is expected to average 2,025 pounds per acre, down 19 pounds from

last month but up 162 pounds from last year.

Sugarbeets: Production for 2004 is forecast at 28.8 million tons, 1 percent above the September forecast but

6 percent below last year's production. The yield is forecast at 21.7 tons per acre, up 0.2 ton from September but

1.0 ton below 2003. Growers in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1.33 million acres, virtually

unchanged from last month but 2 percent below last year. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 42 NASS, USDA

As harvest began across the Nation, yield expectations improved by 0.3 ton in Minnesota, 0.5 ton in Michigan, and

0.7 ton in California and Wyoming but remained unchanged elsewhere. As of October 3, harvest progress in the

4 major producing States was behind the 5-year average. North Dakota growers had advanced the most, harvesting

26 percent of their acreage. In Michigan, where just 2 percent of the crop was harvested, progress was 23 points

behind normal.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2004 is forecast at 30.3 million tons, 4 percent below

the September forecast and 10 percent below 2003. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 961,600 acres for sugar

and seed during the 2004 crop year, unchanged from September but 3 percent less than last year's final harvested

area. Yield is forecast at 31.5 tons per acre, 1.5 tons below the previous forecast and 2.5 tons below the 2003 yield.

Florida’s yield forecast, at 36.0 tons per acre, is down 1.0 ton from September due to damage caused by three

hurricanes during September. However, wind damage was mostly limited to the edges of fields and harvested

acreage was not expected to change. Harvest was delayed in Florida due to soggy fields and loss of power at

processing plants.

Louisiana’s yield forecast declined 2.0 tons due to continued dry weather. At 24.0 tons per acre, this is the lowest

yield since 1993. Harvest was 3 percent complete on October 3, compared with 9 percent for last year and the

5-year average.

Grapefruit: The initial forecast for the 2004-05 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.06 million tons, down 51 percent from

the previous season. Florida’s grapefruit forecast is 15.0 million boxes (638,000 tons), 63 percent lower than last

season. This forecast is greatly reduced from previous seasons because of the effects of four hurricanes that hit the

State’s growing areas in August and September. Only the southern area was not directly affected by high winds,

with Hendry, Collier, and Lee counties receiving primarily heavy rainfall amounts on several occasions. The Indian

River growing area was greatly affected by Hurricane Frances on September 5 and Hurricane Jeanne on

September 29. Both storms brought high winds and heavy rain which blew fruit off the trees, broke limbs, and split

trees. Standing water in groves has caused softening of fruit and continued fruit droppage. The all white grapefruit

forecast is 4.00 million boxes (170,000 tons), 75 percent less than last season. Average fruit per tree is 109, down

78 percent from last season and fruit drop is above average due to the hurricanes. Fruit size is estimated to be

above average but final sizes may change further as a result of continuing rainfall and standing water in groves. 

The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 11.0 million boxes (468,000 tons), down 56 percent from 2003-04. 

Six percent fewer colored seedless bearing trees are available for harvest this season. Average fruit per tree is

greatly reduced because of the hurricanes and, at 210 pieces per tree, is 58 percent less than last season. Fruit drop

is above average from last season. Average fruit size is larger than last season.

California’s grapefruit production is forecast at 5.20 million boxes (174,000 tons), down 4 percent from last

season’s utilization. Grapefruit for the 2004-05 season continued to develop normally as picking of the 2003-04

crop winds down. Harvesting of the new crop is expected to begin later this month. Warm late summer

temperatures prompted many citrus growers to irrigate their groves, but so far there have been no reports of

significant adverse effects from heat on the grapefruit crop. Market conditions for the new crop are expected to be

very strong as a result of the extensive losses in Florida. Arizona’s grapefruit forecast is 200,000 boxes

(7,000 tons), an increase of 43 percent from last season, with grapefruit size anticipated to be the same or slightly

larger than last season. Grapefruit production in Texas is forecast at 5.90 million boxes (236,000 tons), up

4 percent from the 2003-04 season. Harvest has not yet begun.

Lemons: The initial forecast for the 2004-05 U.S. lemon crop is 832,000 tons, up 4 percent from last season. 

California production is forecast at 19.5 million boxes (741,000 tons), 8 percent above the 2003-04 season. District

I (Central Valley) harvest will begin late October or early November. Harvest of new crop District II (South

Coastal Area) lemons will not begin until late December or early January. Harvest of 2003-2004 crop lemons

continued. The new crop harvest is in full swing in District III (Desert region). Overall fruit quality is very good. 

The 2004-05 Arizona lemon forecast is 2.40 million boxes (91,000 tons), 20 percent below the previous season. In

Yuma County, approximately 7 to10 percent of the lemon crop has been harvested at this time. According to

several packers, lemon harvest is behind schedule this year. This is due to a mild, wet February producing strong

blooms, but 100 degree temperatures the last two weeks of March severely hurt the lemon crop.

Tangelos: Florida’s initial tangelo forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), 40 percent more than last season’s

utilized production. Average fruit per tree is 80 percent above last season in spite of the hurricanes; however,

bearing trees are 21 percent below last season. Droppage at harvest is expected to be above average but weather

conditions in the next several months may alter the drop rate. Fruit sizes are projected to be smaller than average

when compared to previous seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 43 NASS, USDA

Temples: Florida’s Temples are initially forecast at 800,000 boxes (36,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season,

43 percent below last season’s final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. If realized, this will be the lowest amount

since the 1954-55 season. Bearing trees continue to decline and are 12 percent lower than last season. Temple trees

were uprooted and split as consequence of the hurricanes that affected the east coast and interior growing areas. 

Fruit per tree is down 43 percent from last season due to these recent hurricanes. Average fruit size and drop rate

are expected to be above average but also may be altered by future weather conditions.

Tangerines: The 2004-05 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 351,000 tons, down 19 percent from last season’s

utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop is forecast at 4.70 million boxes (223,000 tons), 28 percent

lower than last season’s utilization. Early variety tree numbers and average fruit per tree are down from last season

due to damage from the recent hurricanes. Many early variety trees were reported broken. Fruit size is above

average and the droppage rate is expected to be near average. Late Honey variety production is expected to be the

smallest since the 2000-01 season and average fruit per tree is slightly higher than the 10-season average. A large

portion of these trees are located in the Southern area of Florida and were not affected by the hurricanes. Fruit size

is expected to be slightly larger than last season with droppage rates near normal. The 2004-05 Florida tangerine

forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. 

California’s tangerine forecast is 2.90 million boxes (109,000 tons), 7 percent higher than last season’s crop. This

season’s tangerine crop is progressing well. Early season Satsuma variety harvest will begin in late October in the

Central Valley. Arizona’s tangerine forecast is 500,000 boxes (19,000 tons), down 28 percent from last season.

Florida Citrus: The month of September was punctuated by the passage of two hurricanes through the center of

the citrus areas of the State. Another storm, the remnants of Hurricane Ivan, circled around after entering the

Florida panhandle, and crossed the State from east to west (West Palm Beach to Ft. Meyers) bringing heavy rainfall. 

Precipitation from that storm was heavy in the lower interior counties. Hurricane Frances entered the State near

Stuart early on the 5th and exited north of Tampa. It was a slow moving storm with heavy rainfall. The east coast

citrus counties received the heaviest wind with destructive results to citrus fruit and trees in the two major grapefruit

producing counties of the State: St. Lucie and Indian River. Then on September 26th, exactly three weeks later, 

Hurricane Jeanne made landfall at the same location and moved northwest following nearly the same path as

Hurricane Frances. As the storm moved ashore, winds around the hurricane’s eye were even higher than Hurricane

Frances. Again, fruit and trees were affected by high winds and heavy rainfall. As both storms moved through the

center of the state, wind speeds dropped but heavy rainfall continued. Groves and low areas reported standing

water; however, growers quickly tried to move water away from trees. Hurricane Jeanne was so large it affected all

but three citrus producing counties in the State.

Following the storms, heavy amounts of fruit were observed on the ground with tree limb breakage prevalent. 

Some trees were blown over with others suffering major limb damage. Citrus crops in the only counties not

affected by the storms, Hendry, Collier, and Lee, are making good progress with no major problems reported. 

Fresh fruit crops are being sprayed when possible to hold down insect populations. In the flat woods and coastal

areas, citrus growers are also maintaining ditches and canals to move excess water out of the groves and away from

tree roots. 

Citrus growers and fresh packers are maturity testing grapefruit, early oranges, and tangerines with some Fallglow

tangerines shipped near the end of the month.

Texas Citrus: Recent rains in the Rio Grande Valley have improved the outlook for this year’s crop as September

is historically the wettest month in the region. However, the excess moisture has created a few problems as rust

mites are expected to be worse this season. In some cases water had to be pumped out of the groves to prevent root

rot. Runoff from heavy rains in West Texas should further swell the levels of the Amistad and Falcon Reservoirs

located along the upper Rio Grande river. Due to the negative impact of recent hurricanes in the Florida groves,

more citrus fruit is expected to be sold as “Fresh” with higher prices expected across the board. The price spike is

predicted to have a greater impact on Texas grapefruit as compared to Texas oranges. This is because a greater

percentage of Florida’s grapefruit is expected to be lost when compared to Florida’s percentage of oranges lost. 

Marginal fruit which has been left in the groves in past years, is expected to be harvested due to increased demand

for available fruit. Harvest is not yet underway for most citrus.

California Citrus: Insecticide, herbicide, and fertilizer applications were applied in citrus groves. Tree topping

was underway in a few citrus groves. The Valencia orange harvest continued throughout the month at a slow pace. 

The Navel orange crop was progressing well, with large fruit sizes. There were some concerns about heat damage

to the fruit. Lemons and grapefruit were harvested. 

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities, including pruning, grafting, cultivating, and

dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Ground preparations were underway for young trees as

weather permitted. Removal of old, unproductive, or unprofitable orchards and vineyards continued. Buds on
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 44 NASS, USDA

stone fruit trees showed earlier than normal signs of swelling. Some tree fruit growers began placement of

pheromone dispersal devices to disrupt the mating cycles of insect pests. Pruning, cane tying, and brush shredding

continued in wine, raisin, and table grape vineyards. Foliar fertilizer and scale treatments were applied to cherry

trees in the San Joaquin Valley. Strawberry plants showed new growth in many locations. New strawberry fields

were planted in the Kerman district. Zutanos and Hass avocado varieties were harvested and packed as maturity

advanced. Olive groves were pruned and suckered. Cold weather insured dormancy in pistachio orchards.

Apples: The final production forecast for the 2004 crop year is 9.46 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the

August 1 forecast and 10 percent above 2003. Of the 7 States making October 1 production forecasts, New York

and Washington increased from the August 1 forecast, Virginia and West Virginia remained unchanged, while

Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania decreased from August. Growers in the Eastern and Central apple

producing regions are expecting decreases in production from the August 1 forecast, while producers in the Western

region are expecting an increase. Compared to 2003, production increases in the Eastern and Western States more

than offset decreases in the Central States. 

The Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, WA) production is forecast at 6.19 billion pounds, up 3 percent

from the August 1 forecast and 19 percent above 2003. Washington, which makes up 57 percent of the U.S.

forecast, is expecting 5.40 billion pounds of apples. Washington is up 4 percent from the previous forecast and

20 percent above last year. The apple harvest in Washington continues under ideal weather conditions. Despite

spring storms and a hot, dry summer, overall quality is rated as good. All of the other Western States are carried

forward from the August 1 forecast. 

Production in the Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, WV) is forecast

at 2.22 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the August 1 forecast but 1 percent above last season. Production from

the August 1 forecast increased 2 percent in New York, remained unchanged in Virginia and West Virginia, and

decreased 26 percent in North Carolina and 3 percent in Pennsylvania. In New York, fruit set was heavy with some

reports of damage from August hailstorms. Steady summer rains helped increase fruit size. Harvest began about a

week earlier than last year. There is some tree loss reported in North Carolina from the hurricanes, with scattered

reports of storm damage in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. All other Eastern States are carried forward

from the August 1 forecast. 

Production in the Central States (AR, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, WI) is forecast at 1.05 billion

pounds, down 6 percent from the August 1 forecast and 13 percent below 2003. Michigan’s production decreased

by 9 percent from the August forecast and 18 percent from 2003. Widespread hailstorms in Michigan reduced

production potential and affected quality in some areas. As a result, some apples originally intended for the fresh

market will be diverted to processing. Harvest began about a week ahead of normal. All other Central States are

carried forward from the August 1 forecast.

Pecans: Utilized production is forecast at 189 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 33 percent from last year’s

crop but 9 percent above the 2002 crop. The current crop is expected to be lower than last year’s due to the

alternate bearing pattern typical of pecans. In addition to being a low year in this cycle, the Southeastern States

generally noted high disease pressure early in the growing season caused by excessive rainfall, followed by

widespread damage to trees and nuts due to the hurricanes and tropical storms in August and September. Western

growing areas reported some drought and insect concerns, but overall a good, low year crop. Improved varieties are

expected to produce 130 million pounds or 68 percent of the total, while the Native and seedling varieties make up

the difference.

The Texas production forecast, at 50.0 million pounds, is 29 percent below the 2003 crop, but 25 percent above the

2002 crop. Growers in Texas’ coastal areas reported scab caused by excessive amounts of rain, while growing

conditions in other parts of the State were generally better. The Georgia production forecast is 40.0 million pounds,

47 percent below last year and down 11 percent from the last low crop in 2002. The last year Texas produced more

pecans than Georgia was 1992. New Mexico’s forecast, at 37.0 million pounds, is down 33 percent from last year

but up 3 percent from two years ago.

Oklahoma forecasts a 28.0 million-pound pecan crop, more than 4 times larger than last year’s crop of 6.00 million

pounds and more than double the 2002 crop. Ample rainfall from April to August has helped to produce an above

average crop. This increased production forecast is mostly attributed to higher production expected from Native

and seedling varieties. Production in Arizona is forecasted at 13.0 million pounds, 42 percent below last year and

19 percent less than two years ago. Growers reported that hot, dry weather hurt the pecan crop. The Louisiana

forecast of 8.00 million pounds is down 60 percent from last year but 33 percent higher than the 2002 hurricanedamaged crop. The California production forecast, at 3.40 million pounds, is down 8 percent from last year and

11 percent below two years ago.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 45 NASS, USDA

Grapes: U.S. grape production is expected to total 6.07 million tons, down 5 percent from the August 1 forecast

and 8 percent below 2003. California leads the U.S. in grape production with 91 percent of the total. Washington

and New York are the next largest producing States, with 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively. California’s all

grape forecast, at 5.50 million tons, is down 4 percent from August and 5 percent less than a year ago. Washington

grower’s expect to produce 245,000 tons, 21 percent less than August and 29 percent below last year. New York’s

forecast, at 145,000 tons, is down 3 percent since August and 27 percent less than last year. 

California’s wine type grape production is expected to total 2.70 million tons, 49 percent of California’s total grape

crop. The production forecast for wine type varieties is down 7 percent from both the August forecast and last

season. Hot weather during the first half of September caused some dehydration affecting yields in some areas but

overall quality is excellent. Harvesting continued in a few late season variety vineyards. California’s raisin type

grape production is forecast at 2.05 million tons, 37 percent of California’s total grape crop. Production of raisin

varieties is unchanged since August but down 5 percent since 2003. The quality of raisins is reported to be very

good as the season’s harvest nears completion. Production of table type grapes, at 750,000 tons, is unchanged

since the last forecast but up 2 percent from a year ago. At this level of production, table type grapes make up

14 percent of the total California crop. This year’s crop has produced large berries and bunch sizes with quality

being reported as excellent. Harvest was active in Kern and Fresno Counties with Crimson Seedless, Red Globe,

Autumn Royal, Ruby Seedless, and Christmas Rose being the primary varieties picked.

Washington’s production is forecast at 245,000 tons, 21 percent below August and 29 percent less than a year ago. 

The juice type grape forecast, at 140,000 tons, is 30 percent less than August and 40 percent below last year. If

realized, this is the lowest production since 1996. The cold snap in January caused bud damage and clusters of

grapes to ripen at different rates, resulting in fruit loss at harvest. Wine type grape production is forecast at

105,000 tons, 5 percent lower than the last forecast and 6 percent below a year ago. Bunch rot was a problem for

some wine varieties. Berry size is reported to be smaller this year. Wine grape harvest began about 10 days early

this year with warm days and cool nights helping coloring. 

Grape production for New York is forecast at 145,000 tons, down 3 percent since August and 27 percent since

2003. Growers in the Finger Lakes region are reporting low yields caused by cold temperatures in January. Rainy

weather this summer adversely affected fruit quality and grapes are not ripening normally. 

Michigan’s grape production is forecast at 54,600 tons, 22 percent below the August forecast and 42 percent below

2003. Black rot and phomopsis resulted from wet conditions before bloom in the southwest part of the State where

weakened vines were already producing less fruit. Grape berry moth also caused heavy damage in some vineyards

across southern Michigan.

Pennsylvania’s grape production is forecast at 65,000 tons, down 6 percent since August and down 24 percent since

2003. The yields and sugar content of Pennsylvania grapes were adversely affected by the remnants of hurricane

Frances. Grape berry moth has caused damage and wet conditions have caused downy mildew, black rot, and some

shelling due to phomopsis. Niagra grape harvest is complete and wine grape harvest is nearly complete, while the

Concord harvest just began.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.72 million pounds for September, up 1 percent from last

month but 10 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 1,990 acres, down 9 percent from last month and

16 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,050 acres, down 24 percent from last month and

33 percent below September 2003. Wet weather in March adversely affected bloom, resulting in reduced

production in September. Weather over the major producing areas was mostly dry during September with some

passing light showers providing adequate soil moisture. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 46 NASS, USDA

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast

Field Crop Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 24

and October 6 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn,

cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the

U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each

sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with

other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The

counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average

harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the

fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to

obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. 

Approximately 17,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable

yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average

yields.

Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the October 1 forecast was conducted in

Florida, which produces about 79 percent of the U.S. production. In August and September 2004, the number of

bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size

measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona,

California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. 

California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia

oranges.

Field Crop Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were

reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed

considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State

Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The

ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecasts. 

Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for

errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to

prepare the published October 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing

season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending

stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. 

Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production report if

conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey. Planted acres may also be revised for cotton,

peanuts, and rice in September Crop Production report each year; spring wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats only

in the Small Grains Annual report at the end of September; and all other spring planted crops in the October Crop

Production report. Revisions to planted acres will only be made when either special survey data or administrative

data are available. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong

evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast. End-of-season orange estimates will

be published in September’s Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data

available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and

processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean

Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the October 1

production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the

squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes

statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in

the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast

are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1

corn for grain production forecast is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production

forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.0 percent.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 47 NASS, USDA

Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1

forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the

final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 178 million bushels, ranging from 4 million bushels to

624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 11 times and above 9 times. This

does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Crop Unit

Root Mean

Square Error 20-Year Record of

Differences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Percent

90

Percent

Confidence

Interval

Quantity Years

Average Smallest Largest Below

Final

Above

Final

Million Million Million Number Number

Corn for Grain

Sorghum for Grain

Rice

Soybeans for Beans

Cotton 1

Dry Edible Beans

Oranges 1

Oranges 1 2

Bu

Bu

Cwt

Bu

Bales

Cwt

Tons

Tons

3.5

6.1

2.9

2.4

4.2

3.6

8.8

5.1

6.0

10.5

4.9

4.1

7.2

6.3

15.2

9.0

178

26

4

45

564

1

599

436

4

1

1

2

31

0

1

1

624

105

13

103

1,424

3

2,043

887

11

10

11

7

12

15

7

8

9

10

9

13

8

5

13

7

 1 Quantity is in thousands of units. 2 Excluding freeze seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 48 NASS, USDA

Florida Citrus October 1 Forecast Procedures: The following describes the current procedures used by the

USDA Florida Statistical Office staff to collect information for the October forecast. It also describes additional

procedural steps and actions taken by the USDA Florida Statistical office to assess damages caused to the citrus

crops by Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. 

The Florida citrus estimating procedures are some of the most highly developed of any U.S. agricultural statistics

program. A total citrus tree inventory (by type and age) is completed every two years. A representative number of

blocks of citrus trees are visited during mid-July to mid-September to select two random trees and limbs for fruit

counts. This is complemented by samples that are selected to be visited monthly for determination of droppage and

fruit size. Another set of citrus fruit blocks are located and selected along a sample route to determine maturity

about the first of each month.

All citrus forecasts are based on actual fruit counts and measurements. These objective count methods utilize: (1)

the bearing age tree population provided from the latest aerial photography with field verifications, (2) the average

fruit per tree obtained from the fruit count survey using randomly selected trees and limbs, and (3) the fruit

measurement and fruit drop count surveys to determine fruit sizes and loss from fruit droppage. The latest

Commercial Citrus Inventory is the base used to determine forecasted tree numbers for this season. All trees

planted in 2001 and earlier are included. An attrition factor by age and area was applied to these base numbers to

account for tree losses since the inventory period.

The same unbiased fruit count procedures were used as in all of the past 47 seasons. These include drawing the

sample with known probabilities from the Commercial Citrus Inventory based on analyses of the variability in fruit

per tree. Using random path procedures, count limbs on sample trees are preselected to improve accuracy. Fruit on

these limbs is counted in the mid-July to mid-September period.

Fruit size surveys are conducted in August and September. The fruit loss surveys (drop count) began in August.

These surveys, along with historical records, are used to project the fruit size at harvest and the fruit population that

is expected to remain on trees for harvest. 

When Charley hit on Friday, August 13th, the USDA Florida Statistical Office had completed about 50% of the limb

count work in the 3 major orange producing counties which were hardest hit: Hardee, Polk, and DeSoto. Crews

were diverted to other areas of the State for a couple weeks in order to allow the damage in those 3 counties to be

better measured. At the time of Frances on September 5, about 85% of the limb counts had been completed in the

areas most affected by that Hurricane. Again, the counters stayed out of the Frances affected area for a period of

time and concentrated on the Charley affected area. The approach was to complete the limb counts if they had not

been made or to revisit at least one third of the other samples to recount the fruit on the sample limbs. Some

conclusions are by now well known within the industry. Many of the weak trees were uprooted, older trees had

more fruit loss than younger trees, and grapefruit and early orange varieties had more losses than Valencia oranges.

The Florida Statistical Office had completed all limb count visits and revisits by September 25th, the day before

Hurricane Jeanne. (Normally, limb counts would be finished by September 15th.) The procedures used will provide

good information to evaluate the crop size for the October forecast. Hurricane Jeanne had higher, stronger winds

and covered a wider area than the two earlier storms. However, since many weak trees had already been uprooted

by the earlier storms, there seemed to be less tree loss but leaf loss is becoming a concern. Grove care crews

continue working to divert standing water from around tree roots.

The Florida Statistical Office staff used the monthly Maturity Survey samples for an indication of additional loss. 

As the crews drove their routes to evaluate maturity, they checked each block for “green” fruit on the

ground—which would have fallen due to Jeanne. Adjustment factors will be determined by location, type, and age

of trees to be applied to the earlier expansions of fruit numbers from the limb count surveys. The observations for

this procedure were made by seasoned, unbiased field crews.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 2004 49 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to

contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
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USDA Data Users’ Meeting October 18, 2004

Hampton Inn & Suites

Chicago, Illinois

(312) 832-0330

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The

purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the

Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and

World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be

included in the meeting.

For registration details or additional information for the Data Users’ Meeting, see the NASS homepage at

www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Karlyn McCutcheon (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at karlyn_mccutcheon@nass.usda.gov.

This Data Users’ Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 19, 2004. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For more information about the outlook meeting and to register contact Jim

Robb (Livestock and Marketing Information Center) at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.