CROP MOISTURE
{SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

dune 5, 1993

NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on preliminary reports

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidiy, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
dune 1993 B-1 NASS, USDA


Hops: Area Harvested, by Variety, State, and United States.
1991-92 and Forecasted June 1, 1993 1/

State Area Harvested : Strung for Harvest
ee
Variety 1991 19924 1993
Acres
1D :
Aquila : 103 103
Banner : 145 162 137
Chinook : 465 451 335
Cluster 3 734 627 696
Eroica : 243
Galena : 517 $12 540
Other Varieties : 1,911 2.145 2,266
Total : 4,118 4,000 3.974
OR :
Fuggles : 487 570 465
Galena : 99 100 200
Mt Hood : 47 90 220
Nugget : 1,695 2,300 2,350
Perle : 177 285 280
Tettnang : 577 575 570
Willamette : 3,590 3.600 3,375
Other Varieties :. 518 380 440
Total : 7,190 7.900 7.900
WA :
Aquila : 346 344 72
Banner : 366 363 182
Cascade : 1,240 1,261 1,365
Chinook : 2,112 2,179 2,427
Cluster : 6,230 6,452 5,983
Eroica : 398 373 446
Galena : 7,628 8,356 8,464
Hallertauer : 43
Liberty : 103
Mt Hood 4 829 1,429 1,828
Nugget : 2,955 3,606 4,060
Olympic : 337 291 278
Perle : 758 725 670
Tettnang : 2,254 2,127 2,190
Witlamette : 2.583 2,627 2,843
Other Varieties : 218 233 317
Total : 28, 245 30.366 31,271
US : 39,553 42,266 43.145

i/ Missing data included in other varieties to avoid disclosure of
individual operations.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 A-14 NASS, USDA


Montana growers experienced cool weather during the spring season. Bloom was
heavy. The average date of ful] bloom was May 12th. The bloom date was late,
putting pollination into a period of warm. sunny weather. Bee activity was
excellent.

Growers in the Dalles area of Oregon have a normal size crop. The rest of the
State expects below normal production.

Quality will be better than a year ago but quantity will be far below a year
ago in Utah.

Washington has a nice crop. There has been rain but the crop is late and no
rain damage has been reported. First harvest is expected June 15. Size could
be good, if weather permits.

Tart Cherries: Production in Colorado, Oregon, and Utah is forecast at
19.6 million pounds. 55 percent less than last year and
44 percent less than 1991.

Spring weather has put the Colorado fruit trees in excellent shape. Growers
are expecting a full crop this year. Onset of buds in some sites was generally
late enough to avoid the “false spring" problems experienced in previous years.
There has been little or no damage to the crop so far this year.

Virtually all of Oregon's crop is grown in the Willamette Valley. Poor
pollination weather in April, followed by record breaking rainfall, limited
production potential.

In Utah, cool, wet weather during pollination is the biggest reason for the
decreased production. Quality should be good and size will not be a problem.
Fruit drop is nearly completed. Harvest will not come as early as last year.

Spring Potatoes: Production of spring potatoes is forecast at 19.6 million
cwt, down 9 percent from last year and 5 percent below the

1991 crop. The current forecast is 1 percent above May 1, as improved

prospects in Texas have more than offset poorer digging in Alabama and Arizona.

Area for harvest is estimated at 83,800 acres, up 1 percent from a year ago but

4 percent below two years ago. The average yield, at 234 cwt per acre, fell

25 cwt from last year and 2 cwt below 1991.

Florida’s harvest is active and will continue through June in the Hastings
area. Yields are higher on later fields but movement is far behind last year.
Elsewhere in Florida. harvest should be finished by mid-June. Digging in
Alabama began in late May. Irrigation is needed on some fields so harvest can
Progress. Potatoes in North Carolina are doing well. Harvest will begin in
mid-June, a week or so late.

Harvest is just getting started in Texas with yield prospects above last year.
Arizona conditions have been favorable in fields harvested so far. Digging
started in mid-April and should run through June. California’s harvest is
progressing normally with good condition and quality. Most whites and reds are
done and work is turning to various russet varieties.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 B-5 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat:

1992 1993

: + 1,000 Acres -
AL : 95 100
AZ 1l/ : 44 40
AR : 850 1,000
CA : 550 550
co : 2,300 2,450
DE l/: 70 60
FL Is: 20 30
GA : 350 340
10 : 800 850
IL : 1,150 1,550
IN : 450 630
IA 1/ : 40 50
KS : 10,700 11,200
KY : 420 500
LA l/: 170 110
MD 1/ : 220 195
MI : 630 570
MN L/ : 45 40
MS : 250 210
MO : 1,350 1,350
MT : 2,100 2,500
NE : 21,850 2.050
NV 1/: 5 4
NJ 1/ : 28 31
NM 1/ : 330 290
NY 1/ : 110 90
NC : 555 560
ND I/ : 170 135
OH > 1,115 1,050
OK > 6,900 5,800
OR : 825 855
PA l/ : 185 165
Sc : 275 270
So 1,200 1,400
TN 280 350
TX : 3,800 3,900
UT 1/ : 130 150
VA l/ : 265 255
WA : 2,000 2,300
WV 1/ : 11 12
WI o1/ : 45 110
wy l/ : 210 205
US 41,893 44,307

Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State
and United States. 1992 and Forecasted June 1,

Area Harvested

4
39

60

1
11

3.

Al,
69,
4,

16,
52,
62,
22,
1,
363,
23.
6,
12,
35,
1,
10,
64,

55,

1993

Production

1992

180
960
,100
250
000
060
840
100
000
100
500
560
800
100
120
760
280
890
500
800
900
500
425
400
+220
160
750
950
095
100
900
.175
925
600
440
200
200
105
000

539
,800
250

1993

3,
3.
38.
44.
90,
3,
1.
12,
58,
85.
34,
. 250
.000
000
300
945
500
600
1350
350
000
"850

---- 1,000 Bushels ---

700
760
000
000
650
240
110
920
650
250
650

344

488
250
320
640
725
650
800
010
250
450
000
650
800
600
.515
400

540

610
2945

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Productio
June 1993

n

Agricultural Statistics

A-5

NASS,

Board
USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

NOAMUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on proliminery reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness: responds slowly; changes little from week to week: and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge. and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 B-2 NASS, USDA


The Florida tangerine forecast remains unchanged at 2.80 million boxes, an

8 percent increase over last season. Harvest is complete in Florida. The
Arizona and California forecasts. which were carried forward from April 1. are
expected to total 850,000 and 2.50 million boxes, respectively.

Tangelos: The June 1 forecast for the 1992-93 Florida tangelo crop is
3.05 million boxes, unchanged from May 1 but 17 percent more than
last season. Harvest is complete.

Temples: The June 1 forecast for the 1992-93 Florida Temple crop is
2.50 million boxes, unchanged from May 1 but 6 percent more than
last season. Harvest is complete.

Florida Citrus: Groves and trees were dry through most of May. Many

counties have recorded record low amounts of rain in May.
There has been some wilt and a little leaf drop from the abnormally dry
conditions. This year’s bloom period finally ended the second week of May.
which was the latest bloom ending in recent history. Growers and caretakers
have been running their irrigation equipment around the clock to try to
maintain good tree condition during the fruit setting period. There was
Precipitation the last three to four days of May, which greatly helped the
trees and new crop fruit. As of June 1, there were more than 62.0 million
boxes of Valencias picked. Virtually all of the seedless grapefruit groves
have been harvested, Teaving only a few of the smaller blocks unharvested as
of June 1.

California Fruits and Nuts: May began dry with warmer than normal temperatures

that continued throughout the month. In mid-May,
some northern California areas received rain. Throughout May. grape growers
irrigated, fertilized, and treated their vines to control mildew and nematodes.
Harvest of cherries, avocados. desert table grapes. early variety apricots,
nectarines, peaches, and plums began. Wind during mid-May caused some damage
to orchards: fruit scarring will be the result. Brown rot problems in the
prune crop became evident. Olive. kiwifruit, and pomegranate bloom was
underway. Some almond trees dropped nuts due to jacket rot, while apple and
walnut orchards were treated for codling moth. Grapefruit and lemon harvests
were active in the south coast area. Navel orange harvest neared completion as
May ended. Valencia harvest picked up speed with a large percentage of volume
going to export.

Bartlett Pears: Production in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast

. at 555.000 tons, down 1 percent from last year but 5 percent
more than 1991. California expects a crop of good quality and size. Recent
cool and wet weather has slowed maturity. Picking should begin by mid-July.
Oregon's Hood River area has a good crop. However, rainy spring weather in
western Oregon caused poor pollination both in Medford and the Willamette
Valley. Washington expects a quality crop. No frost damage or markings have
been reported. The crop is three weeks late.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
dune 1993 B-8 NASS, USDA


time by the end of the month. May began with corn planting 2 weeks behind
normal. Progress remained 2 weeks behind until mid-month, when dry weather
over the central Corn Belt allowed planting to make good progress. The end of
May saw planting progress 1 week behind normal. with progress lagging in the
central Corn Belt but ahead of normal in the eastern part. Eariy in the month,
soybean progress was well behind normal except for the Southeast. Wet
conditions kept planting progress at the national level more than a week behind
average throughout the month. Soybean planting progress in the Southeast was
hindered by excessive dryness. Although cotton planting progress started the
month behind average, it ended the month ahead of average. Cool, wet
conditions hindered planting and condition of the crop in the Mississippi
Delta. Sorghum planting progress was 1 week behind normal in early May. Wet
fields, especially in the central Mississippi Valley, prevented sorghum
producers from making up the delay during the month. Rice planting progress at
the beginning of May stood at 2 weeks behind normal. Favorable conditions near
the end of the month allowed planting progress to reach 1 week behind normal by
the end of May. Wet conditions delayed crop progress in Texas. Rain, the end
of the month, ended a 5-week dry spell for Florida's citrus groves.

Durum Wheat: The 1993 durum wheat production as of June 1, 1993. is

5.12 and 2.85 million bushels in Arizona and California,
respectively. This i$ no change from May 1 for Arizona but California is off
5 percent. Arizona’s harvest is progressing ahead of average progress:
remaining fields are in good to excellent condition. Harvest in California's
Imperial Valley is nearly complete.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on

June 1, 1993, for the 48 contiguous States
was 88 percent, 8 points above June 1, 1992, and 8 points above the 1982-91
average for June 1. Conditions were above last year in 37 States. below last
year in 9 States. and the same as a year earlier in two States.

Forty-one States had pasture and range conditions in the good to excellent
range. The other seven States were in the poor to fair range. The current
conditions tend to reflect better than normal conditions for this time of year.

Conditions are down from last year in the Southwestern States of Arizona. New
Mexico, and Texas but conditions were unusually high last year at this time in
those States.

Sweet Cherries: Production in the six western States is forecast at
148,300 tons, 21 percent less than last year but 17 percent
more than 1991.

The California harvest is now nearly complete. Oue to the cool spring, fruit
size this year is remarkably large. The bulk of the crop was picked before the
late May and early June rains.

The average full bloom date in Idaho was April 26, approximately 2 weeks behind
normal. This was due primarily to a cool, wet spring.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 B-4 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Total Sliced, United States, 1989-92 1/

1990 1991 2/ 1992

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in California. 2/ Revised.

Sweetpotatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield,
and Production, by State and United States, 1991-92 1/

1,000 Acres
AL 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.9
CA 8.2 9.0 8.2 9.0
GA 4.0 3.4 3.8 3.2
LA 17.0 17.0 16.0 16.0
MD : 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
MS : 4.0 4.5 3.5 4.0
NJ : 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
NC 31.0 36.0 30.0 35.0
sc 3.1 2.2 2.9 2.0
1X 5.8 5.9 5.5 5.5
VA 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.6
US : 81.2 85.9 17.8 82.4
Yield Production
1,000 Cwt

AL 145 165 682 809
cA 185 205 1,517 1,845
GA 155 180 589 576
LA 150 170 2,400 2,720
MD 120 80 36 24
MS 140 130 490 520
NJ 120 130 228 247
NC 135 120 4,050 4,200
sc 95 105 276 210
TX 140 140 770 770
VA 165 140 165 84
US 144 146 11,203 12,005
l/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1993 A-18 NASS, USDA


Peaches: Total Production by Crop, State. and United States,
1991-92 and Forecasted June 1, 1993

\) t | | eee eee eee

1991 1992 1993
Million Pounds

AL 16.0 13.0 17.0
AR : 12.0 12.0 22.0
CA - Freestone : 627.0 642.0 630.0
co : 2.0 18.0 17.0
CT : 3.4 3.9 3.6
DE 3.0 3.5 3.3
GA 150.0 130.0 145.0
10 2/ : 5.4 4.0
IL : 19.5 18.0 20.0
IN 4.6 6.0 8.0
KS 2.5 0.5 1.0
KY 4.0 4.0 8.0
LA 5.0 4.0 3.5
MD 15.0 11.0 14.0
MA 1.2 1.2 1.7
MI 40.0 50.0 45.0
MO : 11.0 9.0 11.0
NJ : 115.0 85.0 85.0
NY : 15.0 14.0 10.0
NC : 35.0 12.0 40.0
OH : 5.8 14.0 12.0
OK 31.0 5.0 20.0
OR 13.0 15.0 14.0
PA 100.0 90.0 90.0
Sc 310.0 170.0 360.0
TTM 6.5 4.2 11.0
1X 32.0 27.0 25.0
UT 2.5 10.8 11.0
VA 26.0 25.0 27.0
WA 30.0 52.0 50.0
Ww 18.0 20.0 20.0
Total Above : 1,656.0 1,475.5 1,729.1
CA - Clingstone 3/: 1,030.0 1,183.0 1,140.0
US Total : 2,686.0 2,658.5 2,869.1

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
U.S., excluding CA clingstone peaches. 1991 - 120.1, 1992 - 113.2.

2/ No significant production due to frost in ID for 1991.

3/ CA clingstone is over the scale tonnage and includes culls and cannery
diversions (million pounds): 1991-60.0; 1992-66.0.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 A-10 NASS, USDA


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The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 winter wheat production forecast is
5.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
production forecast of 1.82 billion bushels will not be above or below the
final estimate by more than 5.6 percent or approximately 102 million bushels.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will
not exceed 9.6 percent or approximately 175 million bushels. Differences
between the June 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate
during the past 10 years have averaged 59 million bushels. ranging from

8 million to 105 million bushets. The June 1 forecast has been below the final
estimate 4 times and above 6 times. This does not imply that the June 1 winter
wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

Agricultural Statistics Board

Crop Production
NASS, USDA

June 1993 B-11


Durum Wheat:

Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1992 and Forecasted June 1, 1993 1/

Area Harvested

Production

State
1992 1993 1992 1993
1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bushels -
AZ 44 55 85.0 93.0 93.0 3.740 5,115
CA 55 30 93.0 100.0 95.0 5,115 2,850
MN 10 47.0 470
MT 157 33.0 5,181
ND 2,150 38.0 81,700
So 33 30.0 990
US 2,449 39.7 97,196
1/ Harvested area for U.S. and northern States available in “Acreage” released

June 30, 1993.

Yield and production for U.S, and northern States to be

published in July “Crop Production” released July 12, 1993.

Wheat:
Year Hard
Red
1991 901,781
1992: 966,078
1993: 1,143,150
a]

Production by Class, United States, 1991-1992
and Forecasted June 1, 1993 1/

Winter Spring

Soft Hard Total
Red white Red Durum White

1.000 Bushels

325,201 145,635 431,223 103,957 73,342 1,981,139
427,139 213,317. 701,994 97,196 53,106 2,458,830
428.851 252.061

Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing states.

Unless unusual situations dictate, the

previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast

season.

Crop Production
June 1993

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


2.50

2.00

1.60

1.00

0.50

0.00

Crop Production

U.S. Winter Wheat Production

1984-1993
Billion Bushels
2.06 2.03
1.83 1.82
152 157 156 161
\ 1.46 137
N N

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

June 1993

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Maple Syrup: Production, Price, and Value,
by State and United States, 1992-93
Average Price : Value of
per Gallon a Production

State a

1,000 Gallons ---- Dollars ---- - 1,000 Dollars -
CT : 12 10 42.00 34.40 504 344
ME : 153 113 15.90 15.00 2,433 1,695
MA : 50 33 34,80 29.80 1,740 983
MI : 85 75 29.80 26.60 2,533 1,995
MN 1/ : 12 27.30 328
NH 2 94 66 32.90 28.00 3,093 1,848
NY : 400 180 23.40 23.10 9,360 4,158
OH : 55 75 28.90 24.20 1,590 1,815
PA : 95 40 24.60 22.70 2,337 908
VT : 570 310 22.30 21.40 12,711 6,634
WI 2/ : 115 105 21.70 18.40 2,496 1,932
US 2/ 1,641 1,007 23.80 22.20 39,125 22,312

1/ Estimates discontinued after 1992.
2/ 1992 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 : A-19 NASS, USDA


Cherries:

Total Production by Type. State, and Total.
1991-92 and Forecasted June 1, 1993

40,
50,
127,

1

55,00
3,20
97,00

88,20

Million Pounds

1993 2/
0 20,000
0 1,500
0 1,600
0 38.000
0 1,200
0 86,000
0 148,300
5 1.6
5 2.0
0 6.0

19.6

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold:

(tons), 1991 - 8,000, 1992 - 11,560, Tart Cherries (million pounds),

1992 - 3.0. 2/
(NY, PA, and MI

Spring Potatoes:

Sweet Cherries

Release date of the first forecast for the Great Lakes States
) for Sweet and Tart varieties, plus WI for Tart varieties, is
tentatively July 2.
4/ 1992 revised.

3/

and United States,

Area Harvested

Hastings :
Other

2.

7.

5.

: -- 1,000 Acres
3.5
6.1 5
19.3 19,
25.0 26.
7.0
17.3 17.
4.8
83.0 83

aan

wwne

No commercial production due to frost.

300 $43
1,770 1,800
8,284 7,238

5,130 6.000
1,470 1,750
2,890 3,460

792 744

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
1991-92 and Forecasted June 1, 1993

Production

Crop Production
June 1993

Agricultural Statistics

NASS,

Board
USDA


Peaches: The first peach forecast for 1993 is 2.87 billion pounds. 8 percent
more than 1992 and 7 percent above 1991. Production of the peach
crop. excluding California's Clingstone crop which is mostly canned, is
forecast at 1.73 billion pounds. 17 percent more than 1992 and 4 percent more
than 1991. Production of California’s Clingstone peaches is expected to total

1.14 billion pounds, down 4 percent from last year but 11 percent more than
1991.

Harvest of California’s Freestone crop was delayed by rainfall in the northern
and central parts of the State. Springcrest and Spring Lady are the major
varieties being picked. Some reports of brown rot in early varieties have
surfaced. Fruit set for California’s Clingstone crop appears to be lighter
than last year. Sizing is good at this time with thinning now progressing.

South Carolina producers expect good quality and production. There was some
freeze damage in March in the upper part of the State. Some orchards were
damaged by hail in April and there are a few reports of powdery mildew.
Overall, the crop looks good and growers are optimistic.

Cold temperatures and snow in mid-March damaged peaches in south Georgia but
only early varieties were hurt by the cold in the major growing area of
northern Georgia. Other varieties are in full production, but dry weather in
May is causing sizing problems. Harvest is much later than normal, with only
9 percent harvested compared with 21 percent for a five-year average.

Most of the rest of the country escaped winterkill and spring freezes this
year. The crop is later than normal in much of the northern part of the
country.

Plums: California's crop is forecast at 220,000 tons. 12 percent below last
year but 1 percent more than 1991. Harvest got off to a slow start

with a little more than 5 percent picked to date. A major portion of the Red

Beaut has been picked with harvest of several other varieties just beginning.

Dried Prunes: Production in California is forecast at 135,000 tons, 27 percent

less than a year ago and 28 percent Jess than 1991. Much of the
reduction can be attributed to last year’s brown rot. Scattered rain and humid
weather after bloom have encouraged disease.

Apricots: The initial forecast for the 1993 U.S. apricot crop is 107.050 tons,

down 1 percent from last year’s production but up 12 percent from
1991,

California's crop is forecast at 100.000 tons, down 1 percent from last year.
Rain in May and June has caused some quality problems. Cool weather during the
spring has allowed fruit to reach good size before -it ripens.

The Utah crop is forecast at 350 tons. down 42 percent from last year’s large
crop. Cool and wet weather during pollination is the main reason for the light
fruit set.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 B-6 NASS, USDA


@ National

Crop Agricultural

Statistics

Production Service

United States

Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released June 10, 1993, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts refer
to June 1, 1993.

Winter Wheat Up 1 Percent

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.82 billion bushels as of June 1, 1993.
This is up 1-percent from the May 1 forecast and up 14 percent from the 1992
crop. Area for grain harvest is unchanged from May 1 at 44.3 million acres.
Yields are expected to average 41.2 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels from May 1
and 2.9 bushels per acre higher than last year. If realized, this yield will
be second only to the 1983 record high 41.8 bushels per acre. Overall. crop
development trails average progress but condition is generally good. The Texas
harvest has progressed into the Cross-Timbers area.

Hard red and white winter wheat production are up 2 and 3 percent,
respectively, from the May 1 forecast. Soft red winter is off 3 percent from a
month ago. Excessive May moisture has fostered disease problems in Arkansas and
several nearby producing States.

Orange production is forecast at 11.1 mitlion tons, down 1 percent from last
month but up 25 percent from last season.

The forecast for all Florida oranges is 185 million boxes, up 1 percent from
May 1 and 33 percent more than last season. Production of Florida early and
mid-season varieties is forecast at 114 million boxes. unchanged from last
month but up 37 percent from last year. Harvest is complete. Florida Vatencia
Production is expected to total 71.0 million boxes, up 1 percent from May 1 and
26 percent more than last season's crop. An estimated 88 percent of the
Valencia oranges had been harvested by June 1.

(narrative continued on page 2)

FOI IO IOI II AI IK IA

New Bulletin Board Service is available - details on
Report Features Page B-13.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For .
information call (202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (6-93)


Citrus Fruit:

Utilized Production by Crop, State

and United States 1991-92 and Forecasted June 1, 1993 1/

Utilized Production
Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/
AZ 4/
CA
FL
TX 5/
US
Valencia
AZ 4/

Temples
FL
Grapefruit
White Seedless
FL
Colored Seedless
FL

Other

FL

Al]

AZ 4/

CA 4/
Desert
Other Areas
Total

FL

TX 5/

us

Tangerines
Al 4/

Tangelos
FL

K-Early Citrus
FL

850
200
800
. 100
100
750
600
151,
178,

500

600
950

700
800
600
400
500
500
000
100

500

600

119,300

1,600
32,200
56,400

10
90,210

2,380
67,300
139,800
30
209,510

2,350

19,100
22,100
1,200
2,800

3,500
6,500
10,000
42,400
65
55,265

1,200
2,400
2,600
6,200

5,100
15.100
20,200

2,600

114,
160,
26,
71,
98,
950
71,
185,
258,

500

260

000
300
510
760

.700
300
750
200
500

250

850

885
298

65
961

822
848

113

922
927

ar

©

29
317
783

100

60
. 208
538
806

89
525
291
906

106

812
940

+

218

mr
aD
aD
o

11,097
113

1,092
1,160

112

2,781

Crop Production
June 1993

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop. State,
and United States. 1991-92 and Forecasted June 1, 1993

Crop and State

Tons

Plums :

CA : 218,000 250,000 220,000
Prunes (Dried Basis) 1/

CA : 187,000 184,000 135,000
Apricots 2/ :

CA : 90,000 101.000 100,000

UT : 100 600 350

WA : 5,700 6.400 6,700

US : 95,800 108,000 107,050
Nectarines :

CA : 215,000 235,000 220,000

1,000 Pounds
Almonds (Shelled Basis) :
CA : 490,000 548,000 520,000
1/ 1992 Revised.
2/ Apricots - includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):
U.S., 1991-4,010: 1992-100.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1992-93

Area Fresh Production
Month
-- 1,000 Pounds --
Apr 3,875 3,700 2,190 2,775 3,960 3.260
May 3,795 3,845 2,190 2,610 4,445 2,960
dun : 3,770 2,410 4,940
dul : 3.700 2,465 4,970
Aug : 3,625 2.590 4,015
Sep 3,625 2,755 3,835
Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-May 22,255 21,305
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1993 A-11 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next “Crop Production” report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on
July 12, 1993.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Herb Eldridge - Sugar, Tobacco. Hay (202) 720-7621
Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice (202) 720-9526
David Mueller - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-2157
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068

Charles Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Stephen Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Jim Brewster - Fruits (202) 720-7688
Arvin Budge - Potatoes. Dry Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285
Kirby Cavett - Peanuts (202) 720-8843
Kevin Hintzman - Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 720-5412
Roger Latham - Cotton (202) 720-5944
David Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-6054

New Bulletin Board Service

NASS now places on the CALL-ERS/NASS bulletin board, the weekly “Crop
Progress", the weekly “Broiler Hatchery”, the monthly "Crop Production”. and
the monthly “Agricultural Prices” reports. These reports will be loaded to the
bulletin board the day following release by 9 a.m. EDT. The service is
available on a free trial basis until July 1, 1993. After that date. the
service will be available only by paid subscription. For subscription
information call 1-800-999-6779 and mention the bulletin board. The CALL-
ERS/NASS bulletin board supports communications up to 9600 baud (N.8.1) on
1-800-821-6229 and 2400 baud on 202-219-0377. Data user feedback on this
service should be directed to George Patton on 202-720-9579.

*U.S. G.P.0.21993-341-322:80107/NASS

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 B-13 NASS, USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative

eT A-11 B- 7
Apricots 2.6... . ee cc ccc eee tenes A-11 B- 6
Beet PUIP 22. eect ete eee eens A-17

Cherries 2.0... ccc ccc cece eee ee A- 9 B- 4
Citrus Fruit 22... eee cece eee e eee A-12 B- 7
Crop Moisture MapS .......... ccc cee e cece eee eee B- 1
Crop Summary ....... 0.0... cece ccc e eee ee enna A- 3

HOPS oo ccc eect cee een e eee nae A-14 B- 9
Maple Syrup ..... 00... cece eee eee e eee A-19 B- 9
MolasSeS 2.6... eee ccc c eee eee A-17

Nectarines 2.0.0... ccc eee cee eee A-11 B- 7
PapayaS 2.0... 2 cette eee A-11 B- 7
Pasture and Range Feed Condition .................... A- 8 B- 4
Peaches ©... 2. eee cee e eee ee A-10 B- 6
Pears, Bartlett ......... 0. cece eee eee A-13 B- 8
PLUMS oo ccc tect nent e teen e nee A-11 B- 6
Potatoes, Spring ....... 0... e cc cece cece cee tenes A- 9 B- 5
Prunes, Dried ........ 0... c ccc cece eee eee eee A-11 B- 6
Reliability Statement ................... 0c. cece eee B-10
Sugar Lc cece cece enna A-17 B- 9
Sugarbeets 2.0.0.0... cee cece eens A-15 B- 9
Sugarcane 2.0.0... eee eee eee eee A-16 B- 9
Sweetpotatoes 2.2.0... cece cece eens A-18 B- 9
Wheat, by Class .... 2... cece cece cee eee A- 7

Wheat, Durum 1.2... . ccc eee eee eee A- 7 B- 4
Wheat, Winter 2.0... 00. cece tenes A- 5 A- 1
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1993 B-12 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed: Condition by State and United States,
1992-93 and Average 1/

State : Average : 1992 : 1993 :: State : Average
: 1982-91 : Mt : 1982-91
Percent : Percent

AL : 77 69 92 :: NV : 80 52 105
AZ : 76 100 90 :: NH : 90 78 90
AR : 84 82 85 :: Nd : 90 91 85
CA : 78 79 92 :: NM : 70 95 72
co : 78 77 83 :: NY : 88 89 92
cT : 90 80 90 :: NC : 85 90 90
DE : 85 97 98 :: ND : 73 80 81
FL : 65 68 65 :: OH : 86 86 84
GA : 72 71 70 :: OK : 84 94 98
ID : 83 65 96 :: OR I 84 67 104
IL : 86 82 96 :: PA : 88 85 84
IN : 87 84 95 :: RI : 92 72 75
IA : 85 85 93 :: SC : 72 75 76
KS : 85 79 89 :: SD : 80 72 92
KY : 88 87 93 :: TN : 86 81 97
LA : 79 96 95 :: TX : 70 90 77
ME : 91 64 80 :: UT : 80 82 99
MD : 88 99 99 :: VT : 91 76 95
MA : 92 78 85 :: VA : 87 84 86
MI : 85 70 85 :: WA : 83 73 84
MN : 85 87 94 :: WW : 86 67 90
MS : 80 76 95 :: WI : 84 77 88
MO : 84 71 95 :: WY : 85 78 101
MT : 78 64 79 3: :

NE : 83 74 100 :: US : 80 80 88

l/ Good to excellent. 80 and over: poor to fair 65-79: very poor, 50-64;
severe drought. 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 A-8 NASS. USDA


May Weather Summary: A slow-moving low pressure center dominated the weather

maps during the first half of the month, first appearing
along the west coast on May 3 and finally exiting the east coast on May 14.
Thereafter, a stable weather pattern evolved, consisting of out-of-season
storminess along the Pacific coast, hot weather in a narrow ribbon from Alaska
southeastward to western Mexico, and cool weather in the Nation’s northeastern
quadrant. Orier-than-normal conditions persisted in the Southeast, and pockets
of dryness developed in the Northeast and the lower Great Lakes States.

The early-month storm produced torrential rain from the upper Great Lakes to
southeastern Texas. Flooding was scattered across the western Corn Belt, while
significant flash flood events occurred in and around Oklahoma City, OK, and
San Antonio, TX. Farther west. more than 10 inches of snow fell at 8,900-foot
Alta. UT, during 5 consecutive days. resulting in a May 4 to 8 storm-total
snowfall of 75 inches. The snow compressed and melted quickly, however, and by
month's end, Alta measured a snow depth of 24 inches. down from 113 inches on
May 1. At Sierra Ski Ranch, CA, snow cover was reduced from 91 inches to

32 inches during the month.

During the second week of May. the massive storm gradually weakened but
remained nearly stationary, causing additional fieldwork delays from the east-
central Plains to the Mississippi Delta. Warm air spread northward through the
Eastern States, pushing temperatures to 90 degrees F as far north as
southeastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec, Canada. On May 10, Fort Wayne,
IN, noted its earliest 90 degrees F reading on record. The next day, Hartford.
CT, observed its first 90 degrees F temperature since May 23, 1992. Meanwhile,
warm weather also enveloped the West, causing a rapid melting of the snowpack
in the Rocky Mountain States, raising river levels and causing local flooding.

After mid-month, fields in the upper Midwest and Northeast that had been
planted during the warm weather were subjected to sharply cooler weather and
occasional frosts. On May 20, temperatures dipped to near-freezing

(33 degrees F) as far south as Lincoln, NE. Elsewhere, fieldwork progressed
under seasonable temperatures and between scattered thunderstorms.

Late in the month, unseasonable rains drenched northern California. As much as
2 inches fell in the northern Sacramento Valley. On May 31, the first Atlantic
tropical depression of the year formed southwest of Cuba before tracking across
the island. Torrential rains overspread areas from Mexico's northern Yucatan
Peninsula to the western Bahamas, including southern Florida.

General Crop Comments: The month of May began with many producers, especially
in the central portions of the Nation, waiting for
favorable conditions which would allow planting to begin. Rain and cool
weather the first part of May hindered planting progress and crop development
in most areas. Orier conditions and warmer weather the latter half of the
month allowed planting to progress and crops to develop. However, by the end
of May, planting progress and crop development averaged behind normal for many
crops. At the beginning of May. the winter wheat crop was in good condition
but crop development was about 1 week behind normal. Wet conditions across the
central Mississippi Valley and dry conditions in the Southeast allowed winter
wheat conditions to decline slightly at the end of the month. Spring wheat
planting was also delayed by wet fields at the beginning of May. However,
favorable conditions over the major growing areas allowed planting to finish on

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 B-3 NASS, USDA


Hops: Acreage strung for harvest is forecast at 43,145 acres. a 2 percent
increase from last year and 9 percent more than 1991. The Washington
crop is progressing satisfactorily. The availability of irrigation water for
the month prior to harvest is a concern as water is critical for good yields.
Wet weather in Oregon has made it difficult to twine and cultivate the crop.

Sugar Crops, 1992 Revised: Sugarbeet production in 1992 totaled 28.9 million
tons. 3 percent above the 1991 output. The larger
production was the result of both increased acreage and higher yields. Area
harvested totaled 1.41 million acres, 2 percent more than in 1991. Yield per
acre averaged 20.5 tons compared with the previous year’s average of 20.3 tons.

Sugarcane produced for sugar in 1992 totaled 28.9 million tons, virtually
unchanged from 1991. The average yield of 33.2 tons per acre was 0.9 ton less
than the previous year’s average. The area harvested totaled 870.400 acres,
2 percent above 1991.

Sugar (raw value) production totaled 7.70 million tons, an 8 percent increase
from 1991, Beet sugar totaled 4.33 million tons or 56 percent of the total.

Sugarbeets sliced from the 1992 crop totaled 28.3 million tons. up 4 percent
from 1991.

Sweetpotatoes, 1992 revised: The final estimate of sweetpotato production for

1992 was 12.0 million cwt. 7 percent above 1991
but 5 percent below 1990. Harvest came from 82,400 acres, up 6 percent from a
year earlier but 8 percent below two years ago. The average yield was 146 cwt
per acre, up 2 cwt from 1991 and 5 cwt above 1990.

Maple Syrup: The 1993 U.S. maple syrup production totaled 1.01 million

gallons, down 39 percent from last year. The estimated crop
value is $22.3 million, down 43 percent from last year. The U.S. estimate
consists of the ten major producing States.

Maple syrup production was varied across the U.S. in 1993 with midwestern
producers having good production while northeastern producers were having a
poor season. Some New England producers reported this was their worst season
ever. New York recorded a record low production. In the northeast, weather
conditions were too cold at the beginning of the season and too warm at the
end. Deep snow throughout the season made gathering sap extremely difficult
and discouraged tapping by many producers. The deep snow also made for a poor
sap flow as it protected the trees from the favorable day and night temperature
changes. Producers in the northeast were also hampered by a spring blizzard
that broke off many tree limbs and damaged many plastic lines used in sap
collection.

Vermont led the U.S. in maple syrup production with 310.000 gallons, down

46 percent from last season. New York's production at 180,000 gallons was down
55 percent from last year. Production in Maine at 113,000 gallons was off

26 percent from last year.

Sap sweetness was near normal across most States with approximately 40 gallons
of sap required to produce one gallon of syrup. Ohio and Pennsylvania were the
exceptions with about 45 gallons of sap required to produce one gallon of
syrup.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 B-9 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1992 and Forecasted June 1, 1993
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested
Crop enn nnn nner ee eee ee eee ene ee eee eee eee ene nee ee ee ee eee
1992 1993 1992 1993
Hectares
Winter Wheat : 20,662,260 20,736,720 16.953,680 17,930,600
Spring Potatoes : 34,520 35,170 33,590 33,910

Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1992 and Forecasted June 1, 1993
(Metric Units)

Production

May 1,  : Juni,
1993 : 1993
Metric Tons

Winter Wheat : 2.58 2.77 43,722,690 49,196,360 49,642,830
Spring Potatoes : 29.08 26.18 976,810 881,100 887 , 630
Peaches : 1,205,880 1,301,400
Apricots : 97,980 97,110
Nectarines (CA) : 213,190 199,580
Plums (CA) : 226,800 199,580
Dried Prunes (CA) : 166,920 122,470
Almonds (CA) : . 248,570 235.870 235,870
Citrus Fruits 1/ : 1991-92 1992-93 1992-93
Oranges : 8.079.390 10.128.720 10,067,030

Grapefruit 2,017,580 2,446,680

1/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 A-4 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield. Production,
Price, and Value by State and United States. 1991-92 1/

Area Planted Area Harvested

---- Tons ----

152.0 158.0 150.0 25.5 26.6
40.2 40.2 39.9 24.0 23.9
202.0 195.0 200.0 26.0 24.5
179.0 166.0 175.0 15.5 17.7
372.0 363.0 370.0 17.0 18.5
55.9 56.3 55.8 23.3 22.8
85.6 78.1 77.5 20.2 17.9
196.5 193.9 194.7 18.4 17.4
21.2 18.5 20.5 16.0 16.0
19.8 18.6 18.6 28.2 22.5
40.1 30.5 39.9 22.0 21.0
71.0 66.4 69.1 20.6 20.8
1.8 2.2 1.8 35.0 40.0
1,436.1 1,386.7 1,412.8 20.3 20.5

Price per Ton : Value of Production

--- 1,000 Tons -- --- 1,000 Dollars --

CA : 4,029 3,990 37.10 149,476
co : 965 954 39.80 38,407
ID : 5.070 4,900 38.30 194,181
MI : 2,573 3,098 38.10 98,031
MN : 6,171 6,845 40.20 248,074
MT : 1,312 1,272 37.30 48,938
NE : 1,578 1,387 39.00 61,542
NO : 3,568 3,388 39.60 141,293
OH : 296 328

OR : 525 419 36.70 19,268
1X : 671 838 30.70 20,600
WY : 1,368 1.437 38.30 52,394
Oth :

Sts$/: 77 72 36.30 13,524
US : 28,203 28,928 38.50 1,085,728

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA. 2/ Revised. 3/ Includes NM and WA. 4/ Estimates are not
available. U.S. marketing year average price, value of production, and parity
price will be published in "Agricultural Prices”, released July 30, 1993.
State estimates will be published in “Crop Values” to be released January 1994.
5/ Production data relates to NM and WA. Price and value of production data
for OH are included to avoid disclosure of factory data.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 A-15 NASS, USDA


Sugar, Raw and Refined: Production and Yield by Crop.
State, and United States, 1991-92

: Sugar, Raw Value Sugar

Dortct ess r etc c cscs ster c rte eee : Production

: Yield per Ton : Refined
State : Production :; of Cane or Beets : Basis

- 1,000 Tons -- Pounds - - 1,000 Tons

Cane Sugar :
FL : 1,833 1,710 246 242 1,713 1,598
HI : 724 652 247 240 677 609
LA : 762 876 215 219 712 819
1X : lll 135 207 209 104 126
Us 3.430 3,373 237 234 3.206 3,152

Beet Sugar :
us 2 3.729 4,329 265 299 3.485 4,046

Cane and Beet Sugar :
us : 7,159 7.702 6,691 7.198

1/ Revised.

Molasses and Beet Pulp: Production by Product, State.
and United States, 1991-92

Product and State Unit  :----------- 222-222 ee nee r reer e rere
1991 1992
1,000
Sugarcane Products
Blackstrap Molasses-80 degree
Brix 2/ : :
FL : Gallon: 101,441 93, 686
HI 3/ : Gallon : 35,960 34,710
LA : Gallon : 42,485 42,435
x : Gallon : 7,743 9,377
US : Gallon : 187,629 180, 208
Edible Molasses : :
LA : Gallon : 1,825 1,460
US : Gallon : 1,825 1,460
Sugarbeet Products - US :
Molasses : Gallon 218,956 181,916
Pulp :
Molasses : Ton 1.174 1.674
Dried > Ton 436 474
Wet : Ton 197 226

1/ Revised. 2/ Includes high-test molasses from frozen cane. 3/ 85 degree
Brix.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 A-17 NASS, USDA



Crop Summary:

Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1992 and Forecasted June 1, 1993
(Domestic Units)

Winter Wheat

Area Planted Area Harvested

1992 1993 1992 1993

~ 1,000 Acres :
$1,057 $1,241 41,893 44307
85.3 86.9 83.0 83.8

Spring Potatoes

Crop Summary:

Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1992 and Forecasted June 1, 1993
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre: Production
: : May 1, Jun i,
1992: 1993: 1992 1993 : 1993

Winter Wheat
Spring Potatoes
Pasture and Range
Feed 1/

Peaches

Apricots
Nectarines (CA)
Plums (CA)

Dried Prunes (CA)
Almonds (CA)

Citrus Fruits 2/

Oranges
Grapefruit

38.3 41.2 1,606,534 1,807,657 1,824,062

259 234 21,535 19,425 19,569
80 88

2,658,500 2,869,100

108.0 107.1

235.0 220.0

250.0 220.0

184.0 135.0

548,000 520,000 520.000
1991-92 1992-93 1992-93

8,906 11,165 11,097
2,224 2,697 2,781

1/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1982-91
average is 80 percent.

2/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production
June 1993

Agricultural Statistics Board
A-3 NASS, USDA


Washington's apricot production is forecast at 6.700 tons, up 5 percent from
last season. Producers in the Yakima District are expecting a smaller crop,
while growers in the Wenatchee area are anticipating a larger crop. Crop
development is generally behind last season.

Nectarines: The 1993 California nectarine crop forecast is 220,000 tons,

6 percent below last year’s crop. Above average rainfall has
delayed crop harvest. Mayglo, Early Diamond, and May Grand are the major
varieties being harvested. More than 17 percent of the crop has been picked to
date.

Almonds: The California almond crop forecast is carried forward from last

month at 520 million pounds, shelled basis. This is down 5 percent
from the 1992 crop of 548 million pounds. A forecast based on objective field
measurements is tentatively set to be released on June 29. Nut quality is
expected to be excellent with sizes slightly larger than normal. Recent rains
and cool weather have slowed crop maturity and placed the crop development
about one week behind normal.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.96 million pounds
for May, 9 percent lower than April and 33 percent lower than

May 1992. Year-to-date fresh sales were 4 percent lower than the same five

month period of 1992. Warm temperatures and a mix of sunshine and showers made

for favorable weather conditions for papaya production in May.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3.845 acres, 4 percent more than last
month and 1 percent more than last May. Harvested area, totaling 2,610 acres,
was 6 percent lower than April but 19 percent higher than a year ago.

Grapefruit: The 1992-93 U.S. grapefruit crop is forecast at 2.78 million tons,
up 3 percent from last month and up 25 percent from last season.
Florida's forecast is 54.8 million boxes, up 4 percent from May 1 and
29 percent more than last season's crop. Harvest is virtually complete as of
June 1. The Florida white seedless grapefruit forecast is 25.7 million boxes,
up 3 percent from May 1 and up 35 percent from last season. The colored
seedless forecast is 27.3 million boxes. up 5 percent from the May 1 forecast
and 24 percent more than the 1991-92 crop. The seedy grapefruit crop is
expected to reach 1.75 million boxes, unchanged from last month but 46 percent
more than last season.

California's “Desert Valley" grapefruit forecast, which is carried forward from
April 1, is 3.50 million boxes, the same production level as last season.
California “Other Areas" grapefruit. also carried forward from April, is

6.00 million boxes, down 8 percent from the 1991-92 season. Arizona's
forecast. carried forward from April 1. is 2.20 million boxes, down 21 percent
from last season. The Texas grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at

1.80 million boxes. Harvest is complete.

Tangerines: The 1992-93 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 259,000 tons,
unchanged from May 1 but up slightly from last season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 B-7 NASS. USDA


California's 1992-93 all orange forecast is 71.0 million boxes, down 4 percent
from last month but 5 percent more than last year. The Navel crop in
California is expected to total a record high 45.0 million boxes, down

4 percent from May 1 but 28 percent more than last season. Harvest is nearly
complete. California’s Valencia forecast is 26.0 million boxes, down

4 percent from May 1 and down 19 percent from last season’s large crop. Good
fruit quality is reported. Harvest is approximately 20 percent complete.

Florida frozen concentrated juice yield remains unchanged from last month at a
record high 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix concentrate. The yield
for the early portion of the crop has been finalized at 1.52 gallons per box.
The 1991-92 season's final yield for the early varieties was 1.47. The
projected Valencia yield also remains unchanged at 1.69 gallons per box, near
last season's record high 1.70 gallons per box.

This report was approved on June 10, 1993, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Agricultural
Statistics Board.

Agriculture Chairperson
Eugene Moos Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1993 A-2 NASS, USDA




Reliability of June 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between May 22 and June 3 to gather information on expected
yield as of June 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in 13 States that
accounted for 79 percent of the 1992 production. Farm operators were
interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to
randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts
made within each sample plot depended upon the crop’s maturity. In early
fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot. and number of
emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested.
A 5-year historical average head weight is used until the crop matures to the
point that heads can be clipped, threshed, and weighed. The number of heads
times the weight of the heads in a Sample plot can then be combined to an
estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted
to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until the crop
reaches maturity and or harvested on the final visit.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 10.000 winter wheat
producers representing all major production areas. These producers were
selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable
winter wheat yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed
throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the
season progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower
reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and
consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and
previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the
survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published June 1 forecasts.

Revision Policy: The June 1 production forecast will not be revised: instead,

a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the
marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks,
production, exports, millings. feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then
made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant
changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1
winter wheat production forecast, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by
expressing the deviation between the June 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1973-1992 20-year period: the square root of the
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.“ Probability
Statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year’s forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

Crop Production Agriculturai Statistics Board
June 1993 B-10 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes
1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is comp] et etl,
co
2/ Net Tbs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA Desert &
AZ-64, CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76:; tangelos, K-Early Citrus &
Temples-90; tangerines-CA and AZ-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including smal? quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

5/ Due to the severe freeze of December 1989, TX had. no commercial production
for the 1990-91 season.

6/ TX estimated at 425 tons for 1991-92.

Bartlett Pears: Total Production by State and Total,
1991-92 and Forecasted June 1. 1993

State en nn nen eee ee ee ee eee ee ee eee ee eee eee
1991 1992 2/ 1993
Tons
cA : 300.000 315,000 320,000
OR : 70,000 74,000 65,000
WA : 160,000 170,000 170,000
Total : 530.000 559.000 555,000
1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):
U.S.; 1991 - 150, 1992 - 1.950.
2/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

dune 1993 A-13 NASS, USDA


Sugarcane: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, Production,
Price, and Value by State and United States, 1991-92 1/

Area Harvested Production
State port rte c rrr ect tert eee cn nee ee ee ee eee ee ee eee ee eee eee eee ee
1992 2
-- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons --- -- 1,000 Tons --
For Sugar
FL 428.0 426.0 34.9 33.2 14,937 14,143
HI : 67.4 61.7 86.9 88.0 5,857 5,430
LA : 321.0 345.0 22.1 23.2 7,090 8,010
TX : 33.2 37.7 32.4 34.2 1,076 1,290
US : 849.6 870.4 34.1 33.2 28,960 28,873
For Seed :
FL : 15.0 17.0 34,9 33.2 524 564
HI : 6.6 6.2 30.9 31.0 204 192
LA : 24.0 30.0 22.1 23.2 §30 696
TX : 1.7 1.6 20.0 23.8 34 38
US : 47.3 54.8 27.3 27.2 1,292 1,490
For Sugar
and Seed
Fu : 443.0 443.0 34.9 33.2 15,461 14,707
HI : 74.0 67.9 81.9 82.8 6.061 5,622
LA : 345.0 375.0 22.1 23.2 7,620 8.706
TX : 34.9 39.3 31.8 33.8 1,110 1,328
US
1991
--- Dollars --
FL + 31.00 463,047 479,291
HI : 29.90 175,124 181,224
LA : 24.70 175,123 188,214
TX : 25.00 26,900 27,750
us : 29.00 840,194 876.479

1/ Yield and production refer to net weight. 2/ Revised. 3/ Price per ton
of cane for sugar used in evaluating value of production for seed.

4/ Estimates are not available. U.S. Marketing year average price, value

of production, and parity price will be published in “Agricultural Prices",
released July 30, 1993. State estimates will be published in “Crop Values” to
be released January 1994.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1993 A-16 NASS, USDA