DURUM WHEAT

STATE 2 AREA HARVESTED ’ YIELD 1 PRODUCTION
fy T t TNO? T 7 TAD + t 7 “IND”
43976 § _—s977 tf 97e 4s 19%6 | OTT + 1978 t 976 tT At 4978
v 7000 ACR BUSHEL 1000 BUSHELS_
'
ARIZ ng 85 2 7260 7000 = 239925! 69120 69370
CALIF: 1 80 2e us 7540 1000 6940) 2 82050
MINN t 93 82 9S 3405 Bled 209465"
MONT 1 295: 220 290 22.0 2900 Be410
N MEX 1/8 17 YS 0 7420 060 6 0
N DAK 6 39620 20470 39200 26.5 2800 600518: 894600
SOaK 3 160 136 185 2620 2200 19600 31266 49070
us 4 42584 30025. 32976 2664 3000 3342924 790964 1199445.

1/ BEGINNING 1978 INCLUDED IN WINTER WHEAT.

SPRING WHEAT OTHER THAN DURUM

STATE 3 AREA HARVESTED ' YIELD ' PRODUCTION

' + + TNO t 7 aes Ca 7 7 THD

a 976 4 Chim! 978 3 4976 | 3977 5 4976 6 976 8 977 4 978

+ Tx000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

'
colo 40 25 32 4000 4000 4000 17600 49000 1280
IDAHO $40 360 435 54.0 8160 8540 290160 23.925
MINN = =—-3 9800 39140 20610 4000 1231500 939960
MONT ' 22080 24040 15850 2200 609180 499950
Nev t 13 12 15 8000 507 ors
N OAK ft 79900 69680 69100 25.0 1706800
OREG = 3 13 79 130 34.0 49680
S DAK 5 10860 21200 20170 23.5 479740
UTAH 4 42 24 23 2600 736
WaSH t 31s 188 310 3300 109850
wits 1 29 1s 1 3300 434
wyo ‘ 36 3) 2 2000 875 420 s2s
us VU 169727 des 77Z2_— 1.39710 28.6 Gh79S25_— 6190316 4050555.

RYE,

state AREA HARVESTED ’ YIELD 1 PRODUCTION

3 7 7 TNO? T 1 TROT 7 7 IND

1 1976 3 1977 3 1978 + 1976 t 1977 t 1978 ¢ _1976 + 1977 3 1978

1 T+000 ACRES GUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

t
coo t 7 4 S 2340 2000 2340 161 80 us
EL t 4 6 5 2740-2740 108 108 135
GA t 95 95 120, 2260-2140 29090 15995 29760
TLL 3 3s 15 19 2160-2200 315 330 418
IND 1 Lo lo 12 2360-2640 230 260 288
Towa 5 4 S 2640-2940 160 116 i30
KANS ot 8 qo 20 1760 1840 136 180 380
Ky 1 3 4 S 2040 2740 60 108 125
MD 1 a 8 10-3060 © 3060 240 240 310
MICH ot 18 19 25 26.0 240 “68 456 625
MINN t 198 a4 120-1965 2940 24048 26436 30240
Mo 2 5 6 7 2160-2740 105 162 175
NEBR ot 45 so 6G «1%e0 2140 765 14050 14380
NJ 4 8 9 11 3040-2960 240 261 330
NY : 9 9 11-300 3140 270 279 330
nc 3 20 ra 26 19401940 380 399 572
NDAK wn 70 205 255 2540 20831 14750 69150
oHlo 1 ? 8 20-3000 320d 210 248 300
OKLA ot 32 34 40 19601940 608 646 760
OREG ot 7 5 9 2400-2500 166 125 243
PA ’ 12 12 13 2640-3140 312 372 390
sc : 30 32 38 17%e0 2040 S10 640 912
SOAK 99 120 2201540 2900 19485 39680 71040
TENN 3 2 2 3. 2760 © 2340 a" 46 66
TEX : 27 2s 29° 1400 1660 376 400 348
vA : VW 14 19 2440 © 2540 264 350 456
WASH t 3 3 3 22.0 2060 66 60 63
WIS : 12 14 17-2100 2600 252 364 408
wo : 3 3 3. 19401940 S7 87 69
ys A rey 694 1,070 2067 245. 149951 16998263518

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 8-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



TART CHERRIES: Production of tart cherries in the U $ is now expected to total 174 million

pounds (79.0 thousand metric tons). This is down 17 percent from last season's
total but 19 percent greater than the short 1976 crop. The crop in the Great Lakes States, at
159 million pounds, is off 16 percent from a year ago and the West is down 30 percent to 15.0
million pounds.

APRICOTS: The US apricot crop, forecast at 118 thousand tons (107 thousand metric tons), is
down 8 percent from Tast month and 20 percent below last year. The California crop is
placed at 115 thousand tons, 20 percent below last year's crop. Harvest of the crop is nearing
completion. Growers experienced problems securing labor to harvest the fast maturing crop
Deterioration after harvest was also rapid. In Washington the weather was ideal for the apricot
crop. Harvest got underway the last week of June and should be completed by August 1. Fruit

appears to be of excellent quality and size.
The California nectarine crop forecast of 145 thousand tons (132 thousand metric
tons) is down 9 percent from Tast month and is 3 percent below last year. Quality
is good although fruit is smaller than normal.
California prune production is forecast at 142 thousand tons (129 thousand
metric tons), unchanged from Jast month, but 10 percent below last year.
development has been good and is slightly ahead of normal.

The plum crop in California is forecast at 130 thousand tons (118 thousand metric tons), 10

percent below last month and 17 percent below last year. Quality of the crop is good. Heavy
volume is expected during the first half of July.

NECTARINES:

PRUNES AND PLUMS:
Crop

PAPAYAS: Hawaii papaya production during July is forecast at 6.20 million pounds (2810 metric

tons), an increase of 7 percent from June. Production should decline during August
and September with expected levels of 5.00 million pounds (2270 MT), and 4.80 million pounds
(2180 MT), respectively. October's forecast of 5.30 million pounds (2400 MT) signals the be-
gianing of a higher production period.

In June, total acreage in crop (including acreage not harvested) at 3140 acres (1270
hectares) is slightly lower than May but 3 percent above last June's total. Of the total acreage

in crop, 70 percent was harvested in June.

ALMONDS: The California almond production forecast at 170 thousand tons (154 thousand metric
tons) is 19 percent below last month's forecast and 32 percent below last season.

Almond meat production is forecast at 205 million pounds.

WALNUTS: A 170 thousand ton (154 thousand metric tons) walnut crop is expected in California
this year, 11 percent below last year. Nuts are sizing well with sufficient water

supplies in all areas,

ORANGES: The final 1977-78 forecast is placed at 220 million boxes (8.65 million metric tons),
virtually the same as last month but 10 percent less than last season's production.

Valencia production is expected to total 107 million boxes (4.20 million MT), 9 percent more than

was harvested last season. The Florida Valencia crop at 80.0 million boxes is 11 percent above

the 1976-77 crop.

Harvest of Valencia oranges in Florida was about 88 percent complete while California was
near the half-way mark. Arizona Valencia harvest was over 95 percent complete,

The duly 1 U S forecast has deviated from actual production by an average of 1.46 million
boxes over the past 10 seasons, ranging from 10.0 thousand boxes in 1967-68 to 3.30 million boxes

in 1976-77.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



PEARS

CROP AND StATE

PRODUCTION 1/
t

: i IND
3 1976 t 1977 A 1978
7 TONS
PEARS @ARTLETT
CALIF : 3059000 3264000 250000
UREG ‘ 754000 80+000 579000
WASH : 1409000 1389000 1109000
vs : 5609006 5441000 4179000
PEARS EXCLUVING BARTLETT +
CALIF : 8500 84600 89000
GREG : 125000 100,000 959000
WASH : 949000 864000 90%000
us : 2274500 1944600 1934000
ALL PEARS
CALIF : 3734500 3341600 258000
coLo s 69400 64900 19800
CONN + 700 15600 19500
TOAMO ert 29000 1,800
mich : 79000 125000 165000
Ny 3 84000 164000 189000
OREG ' 2009000 180+000 1524000
Pa g 39700 46700 39300
UTan 1 59300 55000 2s600
WASH : 2344000 2244000 200+000
vs 4 B40»600 7869600 6559200
1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGEs
(TONS) £ US 1976-20+000s1977~241004
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.
MISCELLAVEOUS FRUITS AND NUTS
CRUP ANU STATE + PRODUCTION 1/7
t TOTAL + TOTAL 1 IND
H 1976 $ 1977 g 1978
t TONS
PLUMS ‘
CaLiF : 1154000 1879000 1309000
PRUNES (QN1ED BASIS)
CaUlF a 1484000 1574000 1424000
GRAPES TABLE TYPE
CALIF : 4059000 4864000 3504000
GRAPES WINE TYPE
CaLir y 193239000 145639000 146509000
GRAFES RAISIN TYPE uKIED 2/34
CaciF A 2839000 2484300
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE NOT DRIED
cauiF : 9769000 8034000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE Bet
CALIF : 292509000 199359000 19800+000
ALL GRAPES ast
CALIF 2 399789000 399869000 398009000
APRICOTS,
CALIF 1 1500000 1434000 115,000
uTad 3 24900 14800 600
wasn 1 24009 21600 29600
us : 1564600 1479400 1169200
NECTARINES +
CALIF 1 1289000 1509000 145-000
ALMONDS 1
CALIF 2337000 2494000 1709000
WALNUTS.
CALIF 1 1835000 1926000 1709000
OREG ats 700 500
TOTAL Py) 1834700 1929500

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE

(TONS) $ APRICOTS» TOTAL 1976=264160+

1977-59000.

2/ DRIED BASIS!L TON OF KAISINS IS EQUIVALENT TO 4.50
TONS UF FRESr GRAPES FOR 1976 AND 4456 TONS FOR 19776

3/ 1976 DATA INCLUDES 659000 TONS (2934000 TONS FRESH
EQUIVALENT) LAIDs BUT NOT HARVESTED QUE TO SEVERE

WEATHER DAMAGE»

4/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP,

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978

B-9

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



CROP PROSPECTS*
JULY 1, 1978

CROP PROSPECTS *
July 1, 1977

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS,. USDA


TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE

AREA HARVESTED

CLASS AND
TYPE IND
1976 1977 1978
ACRES
CLASS 1, FLUE-CUREO
TYPE 11 OLD AND MIDDLE BELTS
NC 185,000 160,000 155,000
VA 70,000 61,000 56,000
US 255,000 221,000 211,000
TYPE 12 EASTERN N C BELT
NC 203,000 177,000 186,000
TYPE 13. NC BORDER & S C BELT
NC 51,000 46,000 49,000
sc 75,000 68,000 70,000
US 126,000 114,000 119,000
TYPE 14 GEORGIA-FLORIDA BELT
ALA 640 550 520
FLA 14,900 41,700 1,000
GA 68,000 65,000 61,000
US 82,640 77,250 72,520
TOTAL 11-14 666,640 589,250 588,520
YIELD PRODUCTION
TNO TNO
1976 1977 | 978 1976: 1977 | yo78
POUNDS T,000 POUNDS
CLASS 1, FLUE-CURED
TYPE 11 OLD AND MIDDLE BELTS
NC 1,830 1,770 1,750 338,550 283,200 271,250
VA 1,780 1,795 1,750 124,600 109,495 98,000
US 1,816 1,777 1,750 463,150 392,695 369,250
TYPE 12 EASTERN N C BELT
NC 2,140 1,955 2,100 434,420 346,035 390,600
TYPE 13. NC BORDER & S C BELT
NC 2, 160. 1,995 2,050 110, 160 91,770 100,450
sc 2,045; . 2,040 2,050 153,375 138,720 143,500
Us 2,022 2,050 263,535 230,490 243,950
TYPE 14 GEORGIA-FLORIDA BELT
ALA 1,900 1,800 1,152 1,045 936
FLA 2,160 2,100 2,100 30,240 24,570 23,100
GA 1,820 2,075 2,050 123,760 134,875 125,050
us 1,877 2,078 2,056 155,152 160,490 149,086
TOTAL 11-14 1,974 1,917 1,959 1,316,257 1,129,710 1,152,886
CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 B-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP | AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO 4 PRODUCTION
ANU y T i IND} 1 Find) IND
STATE. i 3976 } 1977 4 1976 1 1976 1 1977 1.1978 1 1976 1977 4 978
' 19000 ACRES Cet 19000 CwT
i
WINTER i
1
TOTAL wi 14.4 13.4 12.6 207 199 220 21984 29660 29766
t
SPRING |
'
TOTAL rTAl Dba Flee 9067 251 250 199 245722 229870 184028
'
SUMMER 1
ALA 4 B62 7S 145 100 140 19189 750 14120
CALIF ' Sel Bas 360 360 340 20916 32024 25686
coLo y Ted Ged 265 265 25s 19988 19802 19683
DEL ' Se8 Se3 200 210 21s 19160 19lk3 19140
pan 1 208 2.3 190 200 © 210 532 460 378
INO 1 et el 165, 175 175 3389 368 350
SOWA ' ae 201 185 225 200 463 473 320
MD 1 168 lio 170 1so 1S0 306 240 225
MICH ‘ 746 Tab 170 185 190 19292 19443 19577
MINN i 8.0 7S 250 279 260 29000 29063 18960
NEBR ‘ eee Bal 160 150 se 392 vs 270
nJ 1 7.6 Bel 260 265 235 19976 20147 19880
NMEA i 362 209 180 190 200 S76 S51 740
nC t 4.0 4.0 12s 125 12s S00 S00 500
onlO i 1.9 168 210 190 200 399 342 320
TENN ' 47 465 9S 90 ys 447 405 ae
TEX i 906 10.3 245 230 200 29382 2,369 29240
va 1 26.5 2767 123 125 120 (39506 30463 39360
wea as ' 2b 2% 76 64 198 154
TOTAL ' 11667 11562 112.7 1990 191 188 22s541 215982 215167
Vs ESTIMATE FOR CURRENT YEGR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIEH FORECAST.
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/
AVERAGE = * AVERAGE
STATE 1967-76 1977 1978 STATE. 1967-76 1977 1978
PERCENT PERCENT
83 75 1
n 87 93
84 7 a
65 66 76
2 73 a
87 78 86
Ba 55 99
89 62 30
84 79 87
85 70 99
90 2 92
90 90 95
81 64 74
82 77 96
86 76 87
74 73 58
84 52 86
89 75 93
90 63 93
86 59 94
88 58 92
Be W 95
89 73 98
8a 68 85

EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 3

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 B-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


PEACHES

: PRODUCTION ' PRODUCTION
crop tC poUNDS dt 8 LB. EQUIVALENT ____
ANO : TOTAL _1/ INDICATED? TOTAL, TINDICATEO
STaTe $1976 1977 ¢ 1978 3 1976 19773 1978
t MILLION UNITS 19000 UNITS
PEACHES .
ALA 1 14.0 21000 1500 292 208 313
ARK i 4240 34.0 875 833 792
CALIF “FREESTONE : 46400 400-0 99667 99917 84333
coLo : 14.5 50 302 375 104
CONN a: Ged 50 85 125 104
VEL ast 166 207 33 50 56
GA : 20040 12060 49167 19875 29500
1DAHO ar 1260 1160 250 260 229
TUL $ 2000 2000 417 188 417
ND avs 5.5 700 115 2. 146
KANS art 4.0 8.0 83 188 167
KY as 960 11.0 188 2 229
La a: TO 720 146 135 146
MD : 1820 2200 375 438 456
maSS ast 363 365 69 73 73
MICH : 4000 55.0 60.0 833 19146 19250
MISS avs S00 4.0 400 104 83 83
mo av: 22.5 121.0 240d 469 229 S00
uJ : 80.0 1100 8000 19667 2292 1+667
NY + 965 1360 1560 198 271 313
NC : 25.0 35.0 4040 $21 729 833
auto ark 1540 3.0 13.0 313 63 avr
OKLA ert B60 1060 11.0 167 208 229
OREG ai 1500 18.0 13.0 313 375 271
PA : 90.0 9540 8540 19875 19979 19771
sc : 2700 27500 23040 59625 59729 49792
TENN Bra #0 8.0 Bee 167 167 “175
TEX 3 1760 48.0 4000 354 19000 833
UT An ers 1840 18.0 12.0 - 375 375 250
VA ’ 1500 1960 4000 313 396 833
WASH t 50.0 41.0 41.0 Lsa42 ase asa
weVA 2 1520 1506 28.0 313 313 583
us t 1952260 1948340 1941966 310713 309897 299575
PEACHES CLINGSTONE art
CALIF 1 1949860 1950860 = 1915040 319208 319417 239958
ALL PEACHES ’
us $ 3502000 2599100 2956966 629921 629314 53,533

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION ANO EXCESS CULLAGE

(MILLION POUNDS)? UNTTED STATES, 1976-2230691977-1508s
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
3/ CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE IS OVER THE SCALE TONNAGE AND

INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS (MILLION POUNDS)

$ 19769154009 1977=115 006

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 8-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


BARLEY

STATE AREA HARVESTED : YIELD z PRODUCTION

' t t IND ? + 1 IND ¢ ’ ? TNO.

t 1976 ¢ 1977 ¢ 1978 $ 1976 1 1977 $ #1976 ¢ 1976 3 1977 1 1978

3 T+000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

8
ARIZ ' 57 55 37 7600 7600 7200 4332 49180 21664
CALIF ' 19010 950 950 5600 56.0 53.0 56560 539200 509350
COLO : 245 230 235 $5.0 59.0 53.0 1354675 139570 129455
OEL 1 25 20 23 4860 42.0 45.0 19200 840 19035
GA ist 6 7 0 4500 3740 rr) 270 259 0
IDAHO 800 850 820 54.0 4700 52.0 435200 399950 424640
TLL 1 10 9 9 4000 4240 41.0 400 378 369
IND 1/3 9 8 0 4260 4000 020 378 320 0
KANS t 68 65 50 3560 3600 4060 21380 29340 22000
KY t 23 25 24 37.0 46.0 42.0 851 19150 19008
TMO ' 990 70 90 49.0 51.0 49.0 49410 39570 49410
MICH : 19 19 19 4600 S200 874 988 893
MINN t 860 19030 14010 4 $1.0 354260 529530 469480
MO ws a 8 o 3260 3720 256 296 °
MONT t 19170 19520 15450 44.5 3605 3906 529065 559480 50550
NEBR : 40 34 33 36.0 45.0 14440 19530 19320
NEV 1 16 19 20 5400 65.0 664 19235 1*200
NJ ’ 20 7 18 4900 48.0 980 Ble 900
N MEX 3 24 26 26 5160 51.0 19226 19326 14326
NY 3 9 10 10 4400 4400 396 440 450
nC 8 60 $s 59 3940 40.0 25340 29200 39009
N OAK 29146 24530 29400 3806 3900 814320 981676 964000
OHIO a ll il 10 52.0 51.0 572 $6) 490
OKLA , 73 120 80 4200 3560 32066 49200 2e720
OREG ! 160 190 165 4600 G70 74360 81930 99065
PA f] 125 125 125 4300 5000 $0375 69250 69000
sc 1 20 21 24 3600 4000 720 B40 19176
S OAK 1 350 640 Ses 17.0 4200 $2950 269880 199775
TENN 8 13 13 43 3700 39.0 4al 547 496
TEX + 52 8s so 3920 4060 2,028 39400 19400
UTAH + 126 115 133 55.0 54.0 61930 69210 79714
vA t 92 92 101 4800 4600 41416 41048 59050
WASH t 390 350 380 54.0 27.0 215060 99450 199760
WovA : 9 9 10 4240 4260 378 378 450
WIS t 32 29 27 4060 5400 19280 19566 29323
WYO $ 435 133 130 6200 5500 89370 79315 79930
us 3 89297 99490 90116 4409 43.8 4500 3720461 4154803 4100406
1/7 ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.
CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


WINTER VHEAT: Production of winter wheat is forecast at 1.28 billion bushels (34.7 million metric

tons), 16 percent Tess than 1977. Reduced production from a year ago resulted
from fewer harvested acres. The 2 percent decline from June 1 in the production forecast also
resulted from a smaller harvested acreage than expected earlier.

Yield per harvested acre for the US is expected to average 32.9 bushels compared with 31.5
last year. +

The Nation's winter wheat crop generally rated good during June and made good progress toward
maturity although lagging last year's early maturity progress. Hot, dry winds in Kansas and
Nebraska about mid-June turned wheat yellow very quickly. By month's end, some areas of eastern
Washington were showing drought stress.

Harvesting of this year's crop extended across the extreme southern part of the Nation by
Jate May. Rains during early June delayed harvesting in the Southern Great Plains and across the
South. Harvesting picked up momentum by mid-June but continued to lag behind last year and
average. By early July, wheat harvest was 40 percent complete, compared to the 53 percent average,
and “ad reached as far north as Nebraska. Texas harvest was past the three-quarter mark while
Oklahoma was more than 90 percent complete. California harvest was about 75 percent complete
statewide with yields down from a year ago but quality generally excellent.

U.S. WHEAT
July 1 Forecast As Percent of Final Production, 1965-77

PERCENT OF FINAL

i |
1980
usa NEG. SRS 69-77 (7)

DURUM WHEAT: Durum wheat production is forecast at 119 million bushels (3.25 million metric

tons), 49 percent above 1977 but 11 percent below 1976 production. Muct of the
increase from a year ago can be attributed to the 31 percent increase in acreage for harvest
but better yields are also expected.

Yield is forecast at 30.0 bushels per acre. This is up 3.6 bushels from last year and up
0.6 bushel from 1976.

Acreage for harvest is set at 3.98 million acres (1.61 million hectares), compared with
3.03 million acres (1.22 million hectares) in 1977 and 4.58 million acres (1.86 million hectares)
in 1976.

Development of the durum wheat crop in the northern growing areas is dropping behind normal.
The North Dakota crop is in good to very good condition but wild oats are a common problem.
Adequate moisture supplies exist in the South Dakota and Minnesota production areas. In Arizona,
harvest is past the peak with yields disappointing in areas where lodging was a serious problem,

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


JUNE WEATHER SUMMARY

Surges of cool air from Canada pushing into the northern Plains during June caused above
normal rainfall from the Dakotas southeastward to Indiana and into Pennsylvania and New England
Severe flooding occurred in Wisconsin and southern Nichigan. Elsewhere, warm, moist, unstable
air caused thunderstorms from the southern Rockies through the South. Little rain fell in the
Southwest. Temperatures averaged near normal for the month.

As the month of June began, the eyes of the Nation were on the Corn Belt where plowing and
planting were as much as two weeks behind schedule. Cool weather and frequent rain on wet soils
kept farmers out of their fields. However, some progress was made during the first four days of
the month, especially in the eastern portion of the Midwest.

Elsewhere during the first four days, intense thunderstorms occurred in Texas, the Tower
Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast. Temperatures were higher than normal in the West and east
of the Nississippi River, but cool weather prevailed in the Plains and Rockies.

During the week of June 5-11, corn growers made great strides in planting and the Nation
reached 96 percent of the intended acreage planted. However, rains occurred from the Texas pan-
handle to the Gulf Coast and northeastward to the mid-Atlantic States, and heavy downpours caused
local flooding in some Texas, Louisiana and Alabama areas. The cool weather from the Plains moved
eastward and the week's average temperatures were higher than normal only along the East Coast and
west of the Rockies.

The mid-month week of June 12-18 began with a series of cool air outbreaks from central
Canada into the northern Plains. The cooler air moved slowly southeastward colliding with warm
moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to set off thunderstorms. The most intense and widespread rain
fell in the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes region. Some very heavy localized
rains flooded points in Florida and Alabama. Except for the Pacific Northwest, little or no rain
fell in the West. Eastern U S enjoyed cool air by the end of the week, but record breaking heat
toasted the Rocky Mountains and the Southwest.

In the period from June 19-25, rain was heaviest in the central Plains and upper Mississippi
Valley. Winter wheat combining was delayed in Oklahoma and Kansas due to rainy weather but Texas
wheat growers moved rapidly ahead with their previously delayed harvest as the week produced _
little or no rain there. Cool air continued to push into the upper Mississippi Valley in surges.
Some heavy thunderstorm activity occurred along the front bounding the cooler air as it moved
north and eastward. A disturbance in the eastern Gulf brought heavy downpours to the lower
Florida peninsula. Again, little or no rain fell in the hot Southwest.

Warm air surged northward during the last five days of the month and met the cooler Canadian
air in Wisconsin and southern Michigan causing flooding rains and thunderstorms in those areas
before the warm air pushed the cooler air back. By the last day of the month similar activity
was Staged in the eastern Dakotas and west central Minnesota. Thunderstorm activity was wide~
spread throughout the Nation east of the Rockies. Most of the Nation, except for the Southwest
and Plateau region, was much warmer than normal. The central Plains and Mississippi Valley were
up to 9° warmer than normal.

ROW CROP PROGPESS

High temperatures at the beginning of June along with adequate soil moisture speeded germin—
ation of late corn seedings. Most June corn plantings emerged quickly, although growth lagged
last year because of the late season. Tasseling became evident in the South during the first
week of June. Nationally, corn planting was virtually complete by mid-June. Frost nipped a few
extreme northern stands but resulted in negligible damage. Corn borers infested midwestern
fields. Weather and soil conditions made chemical weed control ineffective in some areas, caus-
ing weedy fields. At the end of June, corn rated fair to mostly good. Persistent dry weather
deteriorated Georgia com condition. Meanwhile, heavy rains through parts of the North Central
States washed fields, lodged some corn, and severely flooded local areas. Growth in the Corn
Belt almost equalled the average but lagged 1977's unusually early crop. Tasseling was well
along in the South; many of the areas needed moisture during this critical period.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS
JULY t, 1978

TD Good to excetient
2d Poor to far
2 Very poor
(2D) Severe drought
DED Extreme drought
# INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON-1RRIGATED PASTURES ANO
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS,
usoa ESCS_ rte crerrein |

#43 REPORTED BY
CROP CORRESPONDENTS

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS
(si duly 1, 1977

1 Good to excellent
Ey Poor 10 air

£2 very poor

ER) Severe drought
RE Extreme drought

AS REPORTED BY
CROP CORRESPONDENTS

* INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON-IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

USDA

NEG. SRS 67-7717) Eses

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT

STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED ’ YIELD : PRODUCTION
t 7 t TRO? 7 T IND? 7 7 IND
419761 4977 1__—*21978 | 1976 t_1977 1 1978 1 1976 t—:1977 51978
, 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
'
ALA ot as 90 65 2760 2B 2740S 20295 2eS20 19 75S
ARIZ ot uz 55 47 75.0 72607040 00 39960 90
ARK 630 660 320. -39,0 ©3940-3540 © 249870 254740 219200
CALIF 3 860 650 580 62.0 «6440 ©6060 «530320 © 419600 344800
COLO 8 t «= 240d «= 24550 = 24350) 20S 2200) 24518600 © 56 4100 © 564400
oeut 40 34 28 3540 3160-3560 14400 19054 980
FLA 8 16 13 11-3060 29.0 360 420 377 396
Ga : us 100 130-3150 33003460 30565 39300 20
IDAHO 890 830 780 4440-3940 ©4740 «399160 320370 369660
TL} 985040590 950 3940 4300 725150 6B+370 354150
IND t 19800 19240 750 36.0 4540 5%+000 559800 «30000
Iowa t 130 8s $5 38.0 3760 49550 «3014519980
KANS 4 -419300 120100100300 30602865 3399000 3449850 919300
KY : 330 274: 195 31,0 3720 109230 109138 «65435
La : 23 27 20 33,0 34.0 759 918 640
xO t 138 118 102 38.0 37.0 Sv266 36639978
MICH ot 870 a25 420 38.0 4060 339060 339000 154960
MINN 1 163 105 60 26,0 3360 49238 = 39465 = 14800
MISS t 12a 105 @5 28.0 34,0 3948039570263
rr) 1 19760 15550 840 © 33,0 3940 58+080 609450 30,240
MONT 3 3080 2800 «©2600 3240-2900 989560 819200 -934600
NEBR t 26950 24950-24600 3240-3500 942400 1034250 91,000
Nevo 18 16 11 65,0 6000 19170 960 75
Ns 3 55 a2 33 4240-3100 29310 ©9302 BBM
NMEX 1 245 421 332 23.0 2100 59635 898416 440
NY : 175 175 75 38.0 ©3940 69650 6825.24 700
Nc o8 240 200 175-2950 3060 34,0 69960 6900059950
NDAK ot 135 106 125 28.0 23.0 28,0 «30780 «2392 ©3500
OHIO. «—-1600 9540 = 92S 40404700 649000 729380 «464125
OKLA tt 85300-64500 546002440 2740 3510200 1759500 151200
OREG 1 39220 19130 14060 4640 ©3800 560120 424940 494820
PA ' 300 270 245 «30,0 3340 9000 = e910 By 085
scot 125 95 a2 026.0290 30250297552 788
SOAK 3 970 680 700 18,0 250 179460 179000 ~—-189900
TENN 3 300 200 220 37,0 36.0 119100 109080 74700
TEX t= «49700 = 4700-25700 2202540 1034400 1174500 564700
UTAH ot 222 180 1772365 2300 59217 4014049 779
vA ‘ 240 20s 150 32,0 31.0 7680 6535559550
WASH = 2885258002450 46403400 1329710 9542001124700
WVA 8 st 10 10 320-3140 352 310 320
wis t 64 60 28 37.0 43.0 25368 29580 = :19120
wo ‘ 295 260 260 24.0 ©2040 7080 59200 74540
US _1 499460 404419 «384846 3165 3165 195590923 195269713 192764705
WHEAT: PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES
Ti WINTER SPRING _ :
YEAR re sar wate} Re upon warte TOTAL
T,000 BUSHEL’

1975: 1,088,063 326,208 256,125 326,594 123,362 —-32,107——2,122,459

1976 975,840 336,555 2477528 11,127 1387914 38,3983 5142 362

1977 993,072 341,334 1927307 3974479 797964 21,637 ~=—=«-2 025.793
1978.17: 873,140 204.729 198-836 373,806 1193445313749 «= 80T 705

J/- INDICATED JULY 1, 19787
CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 8-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USOA


OATS: Production of the 1978 oat crop is forecast at 636 million bushels (9.23 million metric

tons), 15 percent below last year, but 16 percent above 1976. Yield is expected to average
53.2 bushels per harvested acre, 2.4 bushels below 1977. Both the lower yield and an 11 percent
decrease in acreage intended for grain contributed to the lower production forecast.

Development of the 1978 oat crop is slightly behind normal as a result of late seeding and
below normal temperatures this spring. Crop development in the northern producing area has been
good with adequate moisture and warm temperatures. The crop has sufficient soil moisture in
Minnesota to carry it through to maturity. Both Oklahoma and Texas are nearing completion of

harvest.

BARLEY: Production for 1978 is forecast at 410 million bushels (8.94 million metric tons), down
1 percent from 1977 but 10 percent above the 1976 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at
45.0 bushels, up 1.2 bushels from 1977 and the highest since 1971.

Major barley producing States showing an increase in yield per acre from last year are North
Dakota up 1 bushel, Idaho up 5 bushels, Montana up 2.5 bushels, and Washington up 25 bushels.
Yield forecasts in other major barley States are lower than last year with South Dakota down 7
bushels, Minnesota and California down 3 bushels, and Colorado down 6 bushels,

Crop prospects in North Dakota are considered mostly good to excellent with adequate top and
subsoil moisture, Moisture supplies in Minnesota are adequate and should be sufficient to carry
the crop to maturity. The barley crop in Washington is in good condition. Although precipitation
in June was reported below normal, rain showers at mid-month enhanced grain development. Harvest
is active in California and below normal yields were reported in many areas.

ALL WHEAT: Growers expect to produce 1.80 billion bushels (49.0 million MT) based on July 1
conditions, 11 percent less than last year's 2.03 billion bushels (55.1 million MT).
The reduction from last year's production results from fewer acres for harvest.

Average yield for the US is estimated at 31.9 bushels per harvested acre, compared with
30.6 last year. Area to be harvested is estimated at 56.5 million acres (22.9 million hectares),
15 percent less than a year ago. This is 85.2 percent of the planted acres, which compares with
88.5 percent last year,

U.S. WHEAT
June 1 Stocks and Supply, 1969-78
BIL. BU.
3k All wheat supply* 4
2 4

All wheat stocks - June 1 .

1 te 4
regen / Pall
_
fa oy (oe
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981

SE WRGAT SUPPLY = JURE 1 STOCKS PLUS PRODUCTION BY YEAR BuDKCATED.

soa PEG. CRO 6S 70161

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT Vv

‘ PRODUCTION + PRODUCTION
crop t BOXES i TON EQUIVALENT
AND { LIZED TINDICATEO? UTILIZED tINOICATED
STATE : Ta7se7e" 1 1976=77_$ 1977978 t 1975976 t J97G=77 1 1977-78
19000 UNITS 2/ 13000 UNITS
ORANGES EARLY MID & NAVEL wn
ARIZ art 730 800 820 27 30 31
CALIF 1 289300 «=. 25n600 199500 1,061 960 731
FLA # 989800 115,000 88» 300 49446 So175 30974
TEX at 39700 39800 157 187 162
vs + 1319530 1120420 51691 69352 41898
ORANGES » VALENCIA :
ARIZ ’ 1,950 2900 73 118 109
CALIF 4 269500 220000 9 738 825
FLA $ 825400 804000 39708 30231 39600
TEX asa 29400 20300 102 106 98
us 4 1219250 = 989450 =: 1079200 49802 49243 49632
ALL ORANGES '
ARIZ 1 24680 39950 39720 100 148 140
CALIF 1 529800 = 469600 41500 19980 19748 19556
FLA 4 1815200 1869800 168300 89154 89406 79574
TEX ae t — 6s100 64900 65100 259 233 260
us 1 2629780 2649250 2199620 = 109493 109595 99530
TEMPLES ’
FLA $ $500 39800 41900 248 M71 aar
GRAPEFRUIT» WHITE SEEQLESS 1
FLA 1 289300 = 294900 28600 19203 49271 19216
GRAPEFRUIT »PINK SEEDLESS ‘
FLA $ 139000 = 429500 = 149200 $53 521 6046
GRAPEFRUIT» OTHER 1
FLA $ 7800 99100 8400 332 387 387
ALL GRAPEFRUIT '
ARIZ + 39080 39000 25900 99 96 93
CALIF ’
OESERT $9100 49500 49200 131 144 134
OTHER AREAS 4 -3ek00 39100 39200 104 104 107
TOTAL ' 7200 71600 79400 235 248 241
FLA $ 499100. 51e500 © 519200 20088 20189 20177
TEX 47% 109700 = 120400 11800 428 496 460
us 1 709080 = 749500 «= 739000 29850 39029 20971
TANGERINES '
ARIZ wee 660 650 700 25 24 26
CALIF ai 45300 19620 19900 “49 68 71
FLA ' 39400 39300 39200 162 157 152
vs 4 $9360 So770 51800 236 249 269
LEMONS z
ARIZ van) 29420 $000 5+700 92 190 217
CALIF 4 159200 © 200600» 209200 578 783 768
us § 179620 = 259600 = 258900 670 973 985
TANGELOS z
FLA t 5500 49800 41900 248 216 221

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST IS COMPLETED.

2/ NET LBS PER BOX! ORANGES@CALIF & ARIZ=75sFLA=900
TEX=85$ GRAPEFRUIT=CALIF DESERT & ARIZ*64+ CALIF
OTHER=67»9 FLA*8S» TEX*80} LEMONS#76% TANGELOS &
TEMPLES=90$ TANGERINES© CALIF & ARIZ=750 FLAS95.

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONAs EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA ANO
TEXAS» INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEXAS,

4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION (=

Released: July 11, 1978 Economics, Statistics, &
3:00 P.M. ET Cooperatives Service

US. Department
of Agriculture

Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN production is forecast at 6.15 billion bushels (156 million metric tons) based
on crop conditions as of July 1, 4 percent below the 1977 crop. The 90 percent
confidence interval for this production is 5.34 to 6.95 billion bushels.

ALL WHEAT production is forecast at 1.80 billion bushels (49.0 million metric tons),
down 1] percent from the 1977 crop. The 90 percent confidence interval for
this production is 1.68 to 1.92 billion bushels.

WINTER WHEAT production at. 1.28 billion bushels (34.7 million metric tons) is down
16 percent from 1977.

DURUM WHEAT production is expected to total 119 million bushels (3.25 million metric
tons), 49 percent more than in 1977,

SPRING WHEAT OTHER THAN DURUM is forecast at 406 million bushels (11.0 million metric
tons), 3 percent below last year.

OATS production is forecast at 636 million bushels (9.23 million metric tons), 15
percent below last year.

BARLEY production is placed at 410 million bushels (8.94 million metric tons), down
T percent from 1977.

APPLE production is expected to total 7.15 billion pounds (3.24 million metric tons),
7 percent above last year's total and up 10 percent from the 1976 crop.

PEACHES are now forecast at 2.57 billion pounds (1.17 million metric tons), a 6 per-
cent decline from last month and 14 percent below the 1977 total.

RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Forecasts in this report reflect evaluations of probable crop
production about July 1. For many reasons, final end-of-
season estimates may differ from these forecasts. Yields in
particular, are subject to influences of weather through har-
vest. The 90 percent confidence interval is based on past
deviations between forecasts and final production estimates.
Additional information to assist data users in assessing re-
liability of the July 1 forecasts is provided on page A-4.

CrPr 2-2 (7-78) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


North Carolina's prospects have improved significantly in the Old and Middle belts since hot
weather arrived. Moisture is rated short to adequate by crop weather respondents. Harvest is a
few weeks away and expected to begin later than usual. In the Eastern belt, prospects are fair
to good. Transplanting was completed about two weeks later than usual because of wet soil condi-
tions. Late plantings are responding well to recent hot, humid weather. In the Border belt,
priming is just getting underway, The crop is maturing several days later than usual.

South Carolina's tobacco crop was in fair to good condition on July 1, Harvest had started
in some early fields, but topping and application of sucker contro) was still underway . Many
tobacco areas were experiencing dry conditions as of July 1.

Florida's tobacco harvest was very active by early July. The crop is about two weeks later
than average. [Irrigated tobacco is in good condition but the non-irrigated acreage is showing
some effects of dry, hot weather. In Georgia, the condition of the crop ranged from fair to good.
The extreme heat is causing some rapid leaf maturity. Harvest is later than usual.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: Pasture and range feed condition for the 48 contiguous States on July 1
was 85 percent, 17 points above a year ago and 1 point above the 1967-76
average for the date.

Good to excellent pasture and range conditions were reported for most of the Nation. Drought
conditions still dominate Southwest Texas. Only Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia and South Carolina
reported areas of very poor conditions

APPLE! The first forecast of the Nation's apple crop, at 7.15 billion pounds (3.24 million
metric tons), is 7 percent above last year's total and a 10 percent improvement from
the 1976 crop. Increases from last season are expected in nearly all major producing areas,

especially in the Eastern and Central regions.

Production in the Eastern States is forecast at 2.89 billion pounds, up 6 percent from last
year and 22 percent over the 1976 freeze-damaged total. New York's crop, at 1.00 billion pounds,
is forecast up 11 percent from 1977 and 22 percent above the 1976 season. Weather was good,
although bloom was two weeks later than normal. Poor pollination in some western New York or-
chards was offset by a light June drop. The New England crop is forecast at 335 million pods,
off 2 percent from last season's total despite a light June drop and the absence of disease
Problems. In New Jersey and Pennsylvania, spring freezes and poor pollination weather reduced
the 1978 crops by 23 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Virginia's apple crop, at 450 million
pounds, is 55 percent higher than last year and more than double the 1976 total. A heavy bloom
resulted in excellent fruit set, despite cool pollination weather. Fruit is sizing well with
no insect or disease problems, The West Virginia crop is forecast 21 percent above last season
while North Carolina prospects are off 4 percent from the 1977 total.

In the Central States, apple production is expected to total 1.27 billion pounds, 26 percent
above 1977 and 46 percent higher than in 1976. In Michigan, the largest producer in the region,
output is forecast at 770 million pounds, more than a third above 1977 and 60 percent over the
1976 total. The crop got off to a later start this year than the last two years and escaped
spring frost damage. Crop development has been good and June rains aided fruit sizing. Ohio's
crop, pegged at 145 million pounds, is more than doudle the 1977 output, and the Indiana and
Wisconsin crops are forecast significantly higher. Prospects in Illinois and Missouri are off
from a year ago.

The Western crop, at 2.98 billion pounds, is slightly above last season but off 8 percent
from the 1976 total. In Washington, the Nation's leader, the 1978 apple crop is expected to
total 2.15 billion pounds, up 4 percent from last year but 7 percent less than the record 1976
crop. Trees overwintered in good condition and spring weather was generally ideal for pollina~
tion. No frost losses were encountered and crop development made good progress during June.
The Oregon crop, at 155 million pounds, is forecast up 5 percent from 1977, Fruit set is good
despite a heavy June drop in Milton-Freewater and some scab outbreaks. The California crop is
expected to total 440 million pounds, an 8 percent reduction from the last two seasons. The
crop is not sizing well and some orchards are showing insect and mildew damage.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production of spring wheat other than durum is forecast at 406 million

bushels (11.0 million metric tons), 3 percent below the 1977 crop and 9 per-
cent below 1976. The smaller production from last year is the result of a 7 percent reduction in
acreage for harvest. Area for harvest at 13.7 million acres {5.55 million hectares) comares with
14.8 million acres (5.98 million hectares) in 1977 and 16.7 million acres (6.77 million hectares)
harvested in 1976, The expected yield of 29.6 bushels per acre compares with 28.4 bushels last
year and 26.8 bushels two years ago.

The other spring wheat crop is behind last year in development but is in good condition.
Stands in North Dakota are generally heavy, but wild oats have been a common problem, In
Minnesota, heading reached the half-way mark which is far behind last year's rapid pace. Hessian
flies caused some damage in the North Central district of South Dakota, necessitating replanting
in many fields, The main spring wheat area of Idaho has been short of moisture during June and
needs rain to maintain growth. July 1 reported condition of the Oregon crop is the best since
y97l,

RYE: Production of rye in 1978 is forecast at 28.5 million bushels, (724 thousand metric tons),

68 percent above the 1977 crop of 17.0 million bushels (432 thousand MT) and the largest
production since 1971. The sharp increase in production from last year is a result of a 54 per-
cent increase in acreage for harvest and improved yield prospects. The US average yield is fore-
cast at 26.7 bushels per acre, 2,2 bushels above 1977.

The crop in South Dakota, the leading producing State, is expected to more than double last
year's production, Topsoil moisture has been mostly adequate and about two-thirds of the crop
was turning color by July 1. The North Dakota crop is forecast three and one-half times larger
than last year, with acreage nearly tripled and yield up 5 bushels per acre. More than a fifth
of the crop was ripening by July 1, about average for this date. The Minnesota crop is forecast
almost one-third above last year as a result of increased acreage for harvest; yield per acre is
expected to be down 2 bushels. About one-third of the crop was ripe or ripening. Harvest was
reaching completion in Georgia by July 1 with yields forecast 2 bushels above 1977.

POTATOES: The first forecast of summer potato production for 1978 is placed at 21.2 million
ewt. (960 thousand metric tons), 4 percent below the 22.0 million cwt. (997 thousand

metric tons) produced in 1977, The 1978 crop is expected to be harvested from 113 thousand

acres (45.6 thousand hectares), 2 percent below the 115 thousand acres (46.6 thousand hectares)

harvested in 1977. The average yield per acre is forecast at 188 cwt. compared with 191 cwt. in
1977 and 190 cwt. in 1976.

In New Jersey, the crop is making good progress on well drained soils. Excessive rains
flooded some low lying areas. Harvest is gaining momentum on Virginia's Eastern Shore. Wet
fields early in the season caused some irregular stands, The North Carolina crop is in good
condition with more than 60 percent of the crop harvested.

Harvest is underway in Alabama with yields running significantly higher than last year.
Moisture supplies are adequate in Michigan and the crop is showing good development. Frequent
rains in Minnesota have reduced the amount of irrigation water needed this season. ‘The crop is
making good progress. Limited harvest is expected to begin in Ohio by mid-July.

Despite light stands in some areas of Colorado, the overall condition of the crop is good.
Irrigation water supplies have been adequate this season. In Texas, excess rain and hail in
late May in some areas reduced yields. Harvest began the last week of June but supplies remained
light until July 4. The California crop is now making good progress although wet fields delayed
planting and caved some spotty stands. Digging has begun in southern California.

FLUE-CURED TOBACCO: Production of flue-cured tobacco is forecast at 1.15 billion pounds (523

thousand metric tons), up 2 percent from the output of 1.73 billion pounds
(512 thousand metric tons) in 1977, The increase in prospective production reflects an antici-
pated increase in yield. The July 1 indicated yield of 1959 pounds compares with 1917 pounds
last year Acreage for harvest is expected to total 589 thousand acres (238 thousahd hectares),
down slightly from the acreage harvested a year earlier.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



Early June weather was almost ideal for soybean planting, and by mid-month seeding progress
was close to last year's and the average. Rains during the second week in June slowed southern
plantings for a short time. Seedings emerged quickly and growth was rapid but development was
still later than in other recent years. By the end of June, soybean planting was almost com-
plete although southern growers had some acreage to plant following small grain harvest. Some
southern soils became too dry for good germination, while saturated soils in northern areas
slowed development. Early soybéans bloomed in the North Central States; growth ranged mostly
from 6 to 10 inches which was 2 to 3 inches less than normal. Southern soybean planting ranged
from 93 to 98 percent complete. Seedings emerged to mostly good stands.

Rains delayed grain sorghum planting in the Texas~Oklahoma area during the early part of
the month. By the end of June, sorghum planting was virtually complete with only Missouri among
the major States reporting some acreage to plant. Texas harvest was underway in southern areas;
non-irrigated stands displayed drought stress on the Plains.

Cotton planting was virtually complete by the beginning of June except in Oklahoma and
Texas. Squaring was evident but lagged recent years. At the end of June, growers in the Texas
Rio Grande Valley hand-picked the first bale of the season; the main harvest should begin in mid~
July. The Texas Plains crop ranged from just emerging to squaring. Squaring ranged from 50 to
76 percent in the Delta States with blooming just started. In the Southeast, squaring reached
75 percent; 29 percent of the Georgia crop set bolls. Squaring reached 60 percent in Cali-
fornia's San Joaquin Valley and approached the boli stage in the desert. Overall development
lagged last year and the average.

WINTER WHEAT HARVEST

At the beginning of July, winter wheat harvest in the 11 major producing States advanced to
40 percent complete, compared with 57 percent last year. The average is 53 percent, Oklahoma
farmers raced toward completion, reaching 91 percent. Texas growers pushed winter wheat com-
binding past the three-quarter mark. Late June rains delayed the Kansas harvest; growers reached
35 percent, 20 points below last year and average. Nebraska's harvest was just getting started.
Farther north on the Plains, most of the crop turned yellow. In the Mountain States, winter
wheat harvest was nearly complete in Arizona and New Mexico; mostly colored in Colorado, headed
in Wyoming, and just starting to color in Montana. California's harvest stood at 75 percent
complete. Oregon's wheat harvest should begin around July 10. Harvest just started in the Corn
Belt with late June-early July storms lodging some stands. Combining in the South was almost
complete.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 6.15 billion bushels (156 million
metric tons), down 4 percent from the record 1977 crop and down 2 percent from
1976. If the July 1 forecast is realized this will be the third largest crop of record.

Conditions on July 1 indicate an average yield per acre of 90.1 bushels compared with 91.0
bushels last year, 87.9 bushels in 1976 and the record of 97.0 bushels set in 1972.

Corn development is behind last year in many of the major producing States as a result of
the delayed plantings. However, with favorable topsoil moisture supplies and a good subsoil
moisture reserve, the crop is in generally good condition. In the eastern corn belt, corn
height ranged mostly from 25 inches co 35 inches. Growth exceeded the average in Wisconsin and
fichigan by 2 to 14 inches, equalled the average in Ohio, and fell short by 5 to 6 inches in
(ndiana and Illinois.

In the western corn belt the crop was developing rapidly and growth on July 1 was only
slightly behind average. The Iowa crop averaged 33 inches in height and the Minnesota crop
averaged 31 inches.

In the South many areas needed moisture as the crop approached the critical silking and

tasseling stage. Georgia corn is showing considerable drought stress, The Texas plains crop
was wind-stressed and needed moisture.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



APPLES» COMMERCIAL Vv

a PRODUCTION ' PRODUCTION
ckOP t POUNDS 8 42 LB. EQUIVALENT
AND 2 TOTAL = 2/—« FINDICATED! TOTAL TINOICATED
STATE a 1976 2: 1977 2 1978 1976 977 1978
7 MILLION UNITS 19000 UNITS
ALL COMMERCIAL APPLES 3
ARK : 11.0 2400 14.0 262 571 333
CALIF : 480.0 480.0 44060 119429 119429 100476
coLe : 74.0 750d 45.0 19762 19766 1072
CONN : 3340 4600 45.0 786 19095 19071
DEL ’ 1340 1365 14.5 310 321 345
GA + 2240 2260 2460 524 S24 571
IDAHO 3 125.0 B5e0 125.0 29976 29026 29976
TLL 3 8660 108.0 9860 29048 20571 29333
IND + 25.0 5220 65.0 595 10238 19548
1Owa 3 660 1067 10.5 143 255 250
KANS + Lied 1660 13.5 271 381 321
KY z 14,0 2240 15.0 333 S24 387
MAINE : 75.0 9200 7600 19786 29190 19810
MD 1 63.0 7000 75.0 19500 19667 19786
MASS : 95.0 95.0 102.0 20262 29262 29405
MICH 3 480.0 57000 77000 119429 139571 189333
MINN : 23.5 1949 25.0 560 4Te 59S,
“Oo 5060 5800 4500 19190 19361 1071
NA : 5740 S860 9940 19357 19381 19405
NJ : 90.0 130.0 1000 29143 35095 25381
N MEX : 3060 3100 33.0 14 738 786
wy + 82060 90000 1400020 199524 219429 239810
nc ' 265.0 27000 260.0 69310 69429 69190
OHIO : 105.0 6540 145.0 29500 19548 3.452
OREG t 17040 14760 155.0 49048 39500 39690
PA t 360.0 46000 380.0 8571 109952 99048
RI ‘ 563 505 6.0 126 131 143
sc 3 23.0 2520 19.0 548 $95 4se
TENY : 8.0 1020 7.5 199 238 179
UTAH 3 4060 4760 3500 952 19119 833
vT : 47.0 4700 48.0 19119 10119 19143
VA 3 212.0 290.6 45060 $1048 69905 LOs716
WASH $ 29308.0 2906000 2615060 549953 499048 51191
weva a 200.0 19500 23540 40762 41643 $4595.
wis 3 52.0 5660 64.0 9238 19333 19524
us $65479-2 6965506 7414800 1549269 1589467 1709188
17 IN ORCHAROS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES.
2/ INCLUOES YNHARVESTED PROUUCTION ANO EXCESS CULLAGE
(MILLION POUNOS) 3 UNITED STATES, 1976-6434 1977*29+6,

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


INDEX

PAGE
APPLES, COMMERCIAL. 2... ee eee ee ee eee ee 8-7
BARLEY 2 we ee ee ee B- 3
CHERRIES 2 ee ee ee B-11
CITRUS FRUIT. 2 B-10
CORN FOR GRAIN. 2. ee ee B- 1
CROP PROSPECT MAP | Tf es A- 5
MISCELLANEOUS FRUITS AND NUTS 2... 0... ee eee B- 9
OATS oe eee B- 2
PAPAYAS, HAWAI] 2... ee ee ee ee B-1)
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION... 2... 2.20. Lae B-12
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAP. 2... eee eee A- 6
PEACHES 20 ee ee B- 8
PEARS 2. ee ee ee B- 9
POTATOES 2 oo B-12
RYE ee B- 5
TOBACCO, BY CLASS AND TYPE... 1 ee eee es B- 6
US SUMMARY 2... ee eee ee A- 2
WHEAT, BY CLASSES 2... eee ee ee ee ee B- 4
WHEAT, DURUM. ec ee eee B- 5
WHEAT, SPRING 2... ee ee ee B- 5
WHEAT, WINTER 2 00 ee ee ee B- 4

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 B-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USOA


RELIABILITY OF JULY 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based on acreage surveys conducted around
June 1 and yield surveys conducted around July 1. The acreage estimates published in the June 30
Acreage Report and used in this report include acres already planted at the time of the survey
and acreage intended for planting later. The July 1 yield surveys included mailed reports from
farmers for all crops and actual field observations in wheat fields. Farmers provided appraisals
of crop conditions and probable yieid information for crops on their farms and for their locali-
ties. Objective Yield surveys provided small plot observations, counts and measurements in a
probability sample of wheat fields. These surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling type
errors that are common to all surveys. More importantly, the production forecasts are subject ta
change due to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured currently but
directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in this report the
"Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is shown below for
Selected crops. This is computed by expressing the deviations between the July 1 production
forecasts and the final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the most recent twenty year period; the square root of this average
becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concern-
ing expected errors in the current forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates,
assuming that factors affecting this year's forecasts are not different from those influencing
recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 corn for grain forecast
is 7.6 percent. This means that chances are about 2 out of 3 that the current production fore-
cast of 6145 million bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 7.6 per-
cent or approximately 467 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence
level) that the difference will not exceed 13.1 percent or approximately 805 million bushels.

Also showm in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between
the July 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the
July 1 forecast and the final estimate for the previous 10 years in which July 1 corn forecasts
were made, have averaged 261 million bushels, ranging from 3 million to 668 million
bushels. ‘During the 10 years, the July 1 forecast was below the final estimate 4 times and
above 6 times.

RELIABILITY OF JULY 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS 1/

[ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR ‘TEN YEAR RECORD OF OTFFERENCES BETWEEN

: FORECAST AND FINAL ESTIMATE
CROP AND UNIT : : 908 CONFIDENCE QUANTITY TNUMBER OF YEARS

: PERCENT LEVEL : : BELOW : ABOVE
: : PERCENT : QUANTITY : AVERAGE : SMALLEST : LARGEST : FINAL : FINAL
: MILLION = “MILLION :
CORN BU 7.6 13.1 805 > 261 3 668 4 6
OATS “ 7.7 13.3 85 : 51 21 89 5 5
BARLEY ‘ 7.7 13.3 55 : 26 0 61 : 6 4
ALL WHEAT " 3.9 6.7 121 : 49 3 143 4 6
WINTER . 3.3 5.7 73 : 22 3 48 3 7
DURUM “ 15.4 26.6 32 : 9 3 20 5 5
OTHER SPRING “ 11.8 20.4 83 31 1 97 8 2

T7_ ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERRORS DERIVED FROM 1958-77 DATA EXCEPT CORN, 1954-70 AND 197 TEN YEAR
DIFFERENCE IS BASED ON 1968-77 EXCEPT CORN, 1964-70 AND 1975-77.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The all orange juice yield for the 1977-78 crop is pro-
jected at 1.23 gallons of 45 degree brix concentrate
per box. The final freeze-reduced yield from the 1976-77 crop was 1.07 gallons per box.

CITRUS CROP-HARVEST AND UTILIZATION TO JULY 17

1976-77 : 1977-78
crop UTILIZATION 7 RERATRING UTILIZATION © RERATHTNG
FOR 3 Y 3 t
: TOTAL HARVEST _: FRESH :PROCESSED : TOTAL + HARVEST
z THOUSAND BOXES
ORANGES : 38,998 190,052 229,050 15,200 37,039 161,380 198,419 21,201
GRAPEFRUIT : 27,045 44,378 71,423 3,077 26,915 42,132 69,047 3,953

LEMONS > 11,310 11,526 22,836 2,764 V1,141 13,444 24,585 1,315

GRAPEFRUIT: The 1977-78 grapefruit forecast of 73.0 million boxes (2.70 million metric tons) is

nearly the same as last month but is 2 percent below last season's production, Har-
vest is virtually complete in Arizona, Florida and Texas, and is more than half finished in
California.

Changes in the US grapefruit production forecast between July 1 and final production have
averaged 472 thousand boxes over the past 10 seasons, ranging from 40.0 thousand boxes in 1970-71
to 830 thousand boxes in the 1968-69 season.

LEMONS: The California and Arizona lemon crop is expected to total 25.9 million boxes (894 thou-

sand metric tons), 3 percent less than was expected on June 1, but 1 percent above the
1976-77 season. Harvest is progressing rapidly and is 95 percent complete compared with 89 per-
cent on July 1 last season. The remaining fruit is in the south coast area of California.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


OATS:

STATE $ AREA HARVESTED t YIELO s PROOUCTION .

: $ z Ind ¢ ? tT IND f 7 IND

i 1976 t 1977 1978 3 1976 3 1977 3 1978 + 1976 5 1977 3 1978

fy 18000 aCkes BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
ala ? 25 25 25 37.0 41.0 4100 925 19025 19025
aRK t 5s 90 50 78.0 70.0 7400 49290 39500 39700
CALIF ? 100 104 100 51.0 50.0 49900 59304 5s000
COLO 2 50 31 33 46.0 46.0 2350 19426 1518
FLA ft de 12 0 45.0 060 600 540 0
GA ’ 60 ss 65 5000 50.0 39180 29750 39250
IDAHO + 3 4S “7 S720 5600 29408 29565 20632
TLL . 380 340 290 61.0 5920 229420 209740 179110
IND fy 200 150 165 53.0 $5.0 109200 79950 99075
1TOwa t 49400 19375 19275 S960 60.0 829600 Blel2s 769500
KANS t 200 216 130 450 3720 89400 99450 41810
KY ’ lo 9 8 35.0 42.0 350 315 336
La et 9 7 Q 54.0 0.0 468 378 Q
MAINE : 28 30 32 5000 5600 19400 19500 19792
TMD ' 22 22 23 5360 5400 19210 19166 Ls24e
MICH % 385 340 360 55.0 5600 194635 18700 209160
MINN 1 29060 29380 15950 68.0 5900 945760 1619840 1159050
MISS 1/3 3 13 0 45.0 0.0 S46 $85 0
mo t 136 145 40 50.0 3900 59440 79250 19560
MONT t 197 140 240 4000 4300 79536 $9600 109320
NEBR 3 660 670 450 S800 S000 279720 387860 229500
NEV 1/t 3 4 ty) 5500 000 144 220 0
NJ : 8 9 8 4340 4400 408 387 352
NY t 31s 290 300 53.0 6400 379325 199370 199200
NC t 80 7S 90 42.0 5360 35760 30150 49770
N DAK : lelso 19500 19240 4000 S200 449840 609000 649480
OHO t 500 420 400 59.0 59.0 28+500 249780 235600
OKLA + 10S 130 120 4600 37.0 49725 50980 49440
OREG ' 70 BO 7 6500 6000 39850 59200 41500
PA t 355 350 340 5300 S200 189105 189550 179680
sc ' 65 ss 6S 4600 51.0 20925 29530 39315
S DaK + 19420 20450 29210 S400 4700 429600 1329300 1039870
TENN + 2s 25 2s 4300 4200 19125 19075 19050
TEX ' 390 600 500 4000 2900 149430 249000 145500
UTAH t 12 10 13 S500 58.0 684 sso 754
vA + 31 34 36 4400 4700 19988 19496 19692
WASH : 35 35 32 4320 5500 19960 19505 19760
wea t 14 12 12 4100 4700 630 492 564
wis : 15230 19170 19150 6500 6000 559040 760050 694000
wyO : 33 45 52 3820 4700 29438 19710 29444
us 1 119946 139447 112951 55.6 5302 5469315 THT914 6356551

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


UNITEO STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

2 AREA HARVESTED :_ YIELD PER HECTARE A PRODUCTION
: : : : 7 TNOTCATED
crop story INDICATED yor7 NO lg RTT
3 H : H H : 1978 : 1978
HECTARES METRIC TONS
CORN FOR GRAIN : 28 330 730 27,593 380 5.71 5.66 161 821 300 156 100 880
OATS : 5 441 870 4 836 450 1.99 1.91 10 855 940 9 225 000
BARLEY 3.840 510 3 689 150 2.36 2.42 9 053 040 8 935 540
ALL WHEAT + 26 796 960 22 877 940 2.06 2.14 96 133 050 49 034 380

WINTER : 19 594 690 15 720 590 2.12 2.21 41 550 320 35 585 620 34 746 220

DURUM 1 224 190 1 609 050 1,78 2.02 2.176 260 3 250 760

OTHER SPRING : 5978 080 5 548 300 1.91 1.99 11 406 470 11 037 400
RYE : 280 850 433 020 1,54 1.67 431 770 724 390
SUMMER POTATOES : 46 620 45 610 21,39 21.08 997 080 960 110
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO:

TYPES 11-14 : 238 480 238 160 2.15 2.20 §12 430 522 940
APPLES, COMM'L : 3018 910 3 262 260
PLACHES 1/ : 1 356 690 1238 570 1 165 540
PEARS : 713-590 594 390
SWEET CHERRIES 2/ : 134 080 120 410 124 560
TART CHERRIES 2/ : 95 660 = 79-790, 79 020
APRICOTS : 133 720 116 300 107 230
NECTARINES : 136 080 145 150 13) 540
PLUMS (CALIF) : 142 430 131 540 117 930
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) : 142 430 «128 820. «128 820
ALMONDS (CALIF) : 225 890 190 510 154 226
WALNUTS : 174 630 154 220
CITRUS FRUITS 3/ : 1976-77 1977-78 1977-78
“ORANGES : FIT 620 8 651 820 8 645 470

GRAPEFRUIT : 2 747 860 2 689 800 2 695 250

LEMONS : 882 650 920 790 893 580

T/_ INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE PEACHES AS FOLLOWS IN METRIC TONS:
1977 - 52160. 2/ ESTIMATES IN JUNE 1 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECAST IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF JUNE 15.
3/ SEASON BEGINS UITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOW-
ING YEAR,

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CHERRIES

STATE 2 PRODUCTION 17

AND : TOTAL 3 TOTAL i ~TND

CROP. i 1976 : 1977 : 1978

3 TONS
CHERRIES, SWEET :

CALIF : 51,000 27,000 13,000
COLO 2/ 2 500 550 100
IDAHO : 3,000 2,200 2,000
MICH : 13,500 23,000 35,000
MONT : 2,650 2,600 1,800
NY 3 2,500 1,800 3,000
OREG i 39,000 37,500 33,000
PA 2/ : 460 350 430
UTAR : 6,000 5,800 3,000
WASH : 54,300 47,000 46,000
US : 172,910 147,800 137,330

MILLION POUNDS
CHERRIES, TART

COLO 2/ 3.3 2.3 1.5
MICH x 90.0 162.0 125.0
NY 2 1413 11.8 19.5
OHIO 2/ 3 12 12
OREG 8.2 8.0 4.5
PA 3/ 7.6 3.2 5.0
UTAH : 17.0 1.2 9.0
WIS 2/ : 5.9 2.2 9.5
us. : 146.6 210.9 174.2
TCCUDES UM ULLAGE (TONS): US SWEET CHERRIES, 1976-5250; 1877-1300.

/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
3/ 1977 REVISED.

PAPAYAS-HAWAI I

2 “AREA UTILIZED PRODUCTION
MONTH <____TOTAL_IN CROP. 5 HARVESTED H = FORECAST
P4977, F978 F977 F978 1977 1978: 1978
5 * “BORE: : T,000 POUNDS
MAY : 3,120 3,190 2,045 2,310 4,096 4,976
SUN : 3,050 3,140 2, 150 2,190 6,127 5,800
JUL : 3,070 2,155 6,652 6,200
AUG : 3,050 2,160 6,322 5,000
SEP : 3,065 2,265 5,502 4,800
OcT : 3,105 2,260 6,461 5,300
CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION JAN-JUN 26,296 26,980
CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 B-IT CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY

(DOMESTIC UNITS) _
AREA HARVESTED: YIELD PER ACRE PRODUCT 10H
, 5 : : : THOYCATED
CROP-AND UNIT 1977: TNDLERTED tory INDICATED qg77 WTS UT
: : : : 23978: 1978
Y,000 ACRES T,000~

CORN FOR GRAIH 2 70,006 68,184 91.0 90.1 6,370,624 6,145,421
OATS 13,447 11,951 55.6 53.2 747,914 635,551
BARLEY 9,490 9,116 43.8 45.0 415,803 410,406
ALL WHEAT 66,216 56,532 30.6 31.9 2,025,793 1,807,705

NINTER : 48,419 38,846 31.5 32.9 1,526,713 1,307,548 1,276,705

OURUM “:3,025 3,976 26.4 30.0 79,964 119,445

OTHER SPRING "514,772 13,710 28.4 29.6 419,116 405,555
RYE "y 694 1,070 24.5 26.7 16,998 28,518
SUMMER POTATCES CHT : 115.2 2.7 191 188 21,982 21,167
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO :

TYPES T1-14 LB: 589.3 588.5 1,917 1,959 1,129,710 1,152,886
PASTURE AND RANGE 1/ PCT : 68 85
APPLES, COM'L LB: 6,655,600 7,148,000
PEACKES 2/ "3 2,991,000 2,730,600 2,569,600
PEARS TON : 786 .6 655.2
SWEET CHERRIES 3/ " 147.8 132.7 137.3
TART CHERRIES 37 LB: 210,900 175,900 174,200
APRICOTS TON: - 147.4 128.2 118.2
NECTARINES (CALIF) " 150.0 160.0 145.0
PLUNS (CALIF) " 157.0 145.0 130.0
ORIED PRUNES (CALIF) " : 157.0 142.0 142.0
ALMONDS (CALIF) " 249.0 210.0 170.0
WALNUTS ": 192.5 170.0
CITRUS FRUITS 4/ : 1976-77 1977-78 1977-78

ORANGES BOX : 244,250 219,820 219,620

GRAPEFRUIT " 74,500 72,900 73,000

LEMONS " 25,600 26,700 25,900

1/7 PASTURE AND GE FEED CONDITION AS OF FITST OF MO’ He 1967-76 AVERAGE 15 84 PERCEN

2/ INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE PEACHES AS FOLLOKS THOUSAND POUNDS:
1977 ~ 115,000. 3/ ESTIMATES IN JUNE 1 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECAST IM THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF JUNE 15.
4/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING
YEAR.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with related information
on selected agricultural commodities. These data were prepared and adopted by the Crop Report-
ing Board which consists of commodity statisticians from Washington headquarters and the State
Statistical Offices.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:

8. M. Graham, Chairman,
APPROVED M. L. Koehn, Secretary,
J.W. Kirkbride, J. R. Kendall,
F. E. Rolf, RP. Small,
O. J. Buckner, L. &. Brown,
H. J. DeLong, W. NL Dowdy,
R. L. Freie, J. 8. Garrett,
D. E. Hamilton, d. R. Gibson,
“, R. L. Schulte, C. J. Koines,
W. J. Walker, C. N. Ullom,
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE Ww. W. Wilken.
CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


PEACHES: Production of peaches in the U S is now forecast at 2,57 billion pounds (1.37 million
metric tons), off 6 percent from a month ago and 14 percent below last season's total.
Excluding California's Clingstone crop (used mostly for canning), peach production is expected to
total 1.42 billion pounds, down 4 percent from both June 1 and a year ago.

This year's output of Clingstone peaches in California is forecast at 1.15 billion pounds.
This is 24 percent less than last season's large crop, 23 percent under the 1976 total, and the
smallest crop since 1958. With fruit sizing rapidly, harvest of early varieties is getting under-
way in the San Joaquin Valley. The Freestone crop in California is expected to total 400 million
pounds, a 7 percent decline in prospects since June 1 and well below the last two seasons. Fruit
being picked for fresh market is not sizing as well as expected and more disease problems are
being encountered than was earlier anticipated.

Peach production in the nine Southern States is now forecast at 505 million pounds, off 6
percent from June 1, and betow the 1976 and 1977 totals. Ory weather has reduced fruit sizing in
Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, leading to declines in production prospects. South Carolina's
crop, at 230 million pounds, is unchanged from last month but remains well under the last two
seasons. Harvest is underway throughout the region, although running about two weeks behind last
year.

The Virginia and West Virginia crops continue in good condition as harvest nears, with pro-
spective output well above the last two years, The New Jersey and Pennsylvania crops at 80.0 and
85.0 million pounds, respectively, are unchanged from a month ago, although lagging behind last
season's totals. The Michigan crop improved 9 percent from June 1 to 60.0 million pounds. The
condition of the crop is good with excellent fruit set and sizes in prospect.

PEARS: The U S pear crop is forecast at 655 thousand tons (594 thousand metric tons), 17 per-

cent less than last year and 22 percent below 1976. Bartlett tonnage in Washington,
Oregon, and California is expected to total 417 thousand tons (378 thousand metric tons), 23
percent less than last year. In California, a warm winter with inadequate chilling hours and a
heavy fruit drop resulted in the lowest crop since 1967, Harvest is expected to begin the sec~
ond week of July. Washington's Bartlett crop made excellent growth during June, Although this
year's crop {is short, a high percentage of large fruit is expected.

Production of pears other than Bartletts in the Pacific Coast States is initially forecast
at 193 thousand tons (175 thousand metric tons), 1 percent below last season. In Oregon, the
Anjous pears are of good quality in Hood River and Medford. Bosc and Comice prospects were re-
duced by poor pollination weather.

Michigan prospects are good, despite some spring frost damage. The New York crop is ex-
pected to top last year's total while the Pennsylvania crop was reduced by spring frosts and
poor pollination.

GRAPES: California's grape crop is expected to total 3.80 million tons (3.45 million metric

tons) this year, 5 percent less than in 1977. Vines are in excellent condition. Har-
vest of table grapes got underway in the Coachella Valley the last week of May. There have been
some mildew problems because of the cool weather in the raisin grape area

SWEET CHERRIES: The U S sweet cherry crop is forecast at 137 thousand tons (125 thousand metric
tons), 7 percent less than last year's production and 21 percent below 1976.
The three Pacific Coast States expect to harvest 92.0 thousand tons, compared with 112 thousand
tons in 1977. Adverse weather during the bloom period in California restricted pollination, re-
sulting in the smallest crop since 1940. In Oregon, fruit quality and size are good. Washington's
weather was ideal for the sweet cherry crop in June. Picking for fresh market was completed by
the end of June in the Yakima Valley and lower elevation orchards of Wenatchee district. In
Michigan, harvest got underway the last week of June and quality is excellent.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

STATE

‘ AREA HARVESTED t YIELD : PRODUCTION

ry ? t TNO ? T TTMND ¢ tT 7 TRO

3 _ 41976 3 4977 3 4978 $ 1976 § 3977 | 1978 3 1976 3 1977 8 1978

‘ 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

'
ALA f] 800 375 S40 6000 290 6000 485000 109875 329400
ARIZ 1 26 50 “5 6000 6006 12000 19660 39000 59400
ARK ’ 45 43 30 5600 53.0 5500 20520 29279 19650
CALIF ’ 290 267 240 22060 216.0 2120.0 325900 269652 285800
COLO ’ 630 695 630 102.0 116.0 11060 649260 809620 699300
CONN 1/8 0 o 0 00 000 0 0
OEL ‘ 195 185 480 B60 83.0 179160 0 360 149940
FLA ' 480 299 370 60.0 S60 285600 65 209720
GA ’ 20160 19000 19580 6200 45-0 3339920 pasoee 719100
TDAHO ' 3s 28 v 6520 8600 20975 29408 29666
Tee cy 119590 109960 105700 307.0 10260 192400130 191520900 190919400
INO ' 60300 69210 6000 110.0 9860 693900 6339420 588000
10Wa ' 125900 129400 129100 9140 20000 1912739900 190919200 182209000
KANS , 19790 12680 19500 9600 94.0 1719860 1619260 1419000
Ky 2 19360 19410 14340 10200 86.0 1384720 «1260900 «= 1174920
LA ’ n 6s 50 6600 60.0 40686 30380 35000
MAINE Mm 0 Q 0 050 060 0 0 0

630 600 580 9200 88.0 579960 439200 $1+040

mass w o Q 7) 00d 000 ) 0 0
MICH 8 29230 29250 25150 6960 7600 «=1539870 §= 2929250 §=— 167 700
MINN ‘ $600 69000 62000 59.0 88.0 3309400 6009000 526.000
ISS ‘ v2 169 135 47.0 46.0 61084 59760 69480
MO 1 2,850 29700 29300 6100 7000 1739850 2059200 1610000
MONT ' 3} n n 7560 7260 825 748 792
NEBR ’ 69100 60350 69300 8560 9300 5189500 6289650 5851900
NEV st 0 0 9 000 060 0 0 0
NH wet 0 ) 0 000 060 0 0 0
Li ' 103 9s 90 86.0 7960 8s858 69650 7odto
N MEX ’ 96 lle 63 105.0 10520 109080 1 60 66615
NY ' 573 640 620 76.0 8340 439568 00 515460
NC ' 19880 19690 19540 80.0 7300 = 1500400 90 1129420
N DAK ’ 191 237 240 4000 6500 79640 169116 154600
OHIO t 3,820 39620 9570 103.0 9600 3939460 3809100 342720
OKLA ' 106 9S 95.0 84.0 109070 79790 5880
OREG + 10 12 t 9000 9500 900 19140 950
Pa by 15150 19160 19120 9000 8500 1034500 1066720 954200
Ry os 0 0.0 020 0 0 0
sc s 667 620 Ses 740 6060 499358 229320 319500
S DAK ’ 19200 29150 29200 31.0 5000 379200 1269850 1105000
TENN , 15s 730 650 79.0 7360 560485 479450 479450
TEX t 14550 19650 19400 120.0 9500 186000 1334000
UTAH ' is 3 9000 68.0 19350 19232
VT ws 9 Qo Q O08 060 0 0 Q
vA t 610 560 580 7800 7500 475580 309800 435500
WASH ’ a4 48 45 107.0 vero 1060 49708 5068 e770
WeYA , 6) So 5B 88.0 Ted 8560 59368 39996 49930
wIs ‘ 29220 29750 29550 68.0 104.0 90.0 1500960 baa-te-t4 229,50
wo 1, 22 30 e7 87.0 85.0 88.0 19914 $50 29376
us t 719300 709006 689184 87.9 91.0 9001 692669359 eraavese 69145042)

1/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1978 B-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA