Sugarbeets:

and United States,

Oth
Sts 2/

1,

Area Harvested

82.0
51.1
184.0
130.0
438.0
57.5
51.2
0.9
225.3
4.6
16.3
12.6
13.0
56.8

323.3

1,000 Acres --

102.0
67.0
196.0
160.0
443.0
58.5
59.6
1.6
230.0
0.9
17.1
15.5
18.2
61.0

1,430.4

15.1

18.7
18.8
25.5
19.2
35.5
18.9

Area Harvested, Yield,
1995-96 and Forecasted November 1

19.0

and Production by State

1997 1/

Production

2,970 1,963 3,040
7,434 7,971 8,063
1,193 1,300 1,287
1,186 913 989
27 38
3,929 4,213 4,255
230 86 17
404 416 450
351 242 333
461 681
1,249 1,074 1,251
484
28,065 26,680 29,998

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except

beets in

2/ Includes NM and WA prior to 1996.

CA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed:

by State and United States,

for overwintered spring planted

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

Yield 1/

FL: 438.

HI : 46.
LA > 370.

TX 2 34.

1,000 Acres

0
0
0
9

Area Harvested

Production 1/

438.0
35.0
410.0
31.5

34.0
82.0
27.0
27.2

1,000 Tons
15,122 14,498
4,070 3,639
10,240 10,323
1,364 1,002
30,796 29,462 29,689

Crop Producti
November 1997

on

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on
December 11, 1997.

Texas grapefruit production is no longer forecasted on November 1. The

next

Texas grapefruit forecast will be made for December 1 and released in the

December 11, 1997 “Crop Production” report along with the other state’s
forecasts of citrus fruit production. Since the only citrus forecast

in November in the past was Texas’ grapefruit, the Citrus Fruit table will

not be published this month.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National

Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369
Rhonda Brandt- Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621
Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526
Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944
Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234
Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688
Vaughn Siegenthaler ~ Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285
Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,
Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup _ (202) 720-7235
Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157
Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215
Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,
Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270
Debbie Williams - Apples, Strawberries, Tobacco (202) 720-4288
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1997 B-13 NASS, USDA


been no hurricanes this season so the cane is standing straight. In Hawaii, with
the exception of mid-month showers, October weather was mostly dry in the major
growing areas and harvest continued at an active pace. In Texas, yields were
close to expectations, but sucrose content was much lower than expected.

Florida Citrus: October was mild and dry for most of Florida's citrus belt.

There were a few rains early in the month, but dry conditions
prevailed until the end of the month when severe thunderstorms hit the region.
No damage to citrus was reported. The additional moisture was quite beneficial
to citrus.

The early maturing citrus varieties such as Navel, Hamlin, and Ambersweet
oranges, Fallglo and Robinson early tangerines, K-Early citrus fruit, Satsumas,
and white and colored grapefruit were packed and shipped at a rapid rate during
October. Some packing house eliminations were dumped and destroyed because the
processors did not want the early fruit. By the end of October, many of the
processors were open and receiving grove run oranges for juice. Citrus grove
caretakers have been relatively inactive with limited cutting of cover crops,
spraying, and minimal fertilizing.

Texas Citrus: Harvest was delayed in October due to rain in the Rio Grande
Valley. The moisture was beneficial, as many areas were dry and
short on irrigation water. Demand for fruit was slow during the month but was
expected to increase rapidly as gift and fund-raising sales picked up. Quality
of early picked fruit has been very good. Although sizes are smaller, pack-out
rates are better than a year ago. With the rainfall and slightly cooler
temperatures, sizes are expected to increase as the season progresses.

Hazelnuts: The hazelnut production forecast is 41,000 tons (in-shell basis), up

3 percent from October’s forecast and more than double last year’s
production. The bulk of the expected production, 40,800 tons, will originate
in Oregon with the balance coming from Washington state. Harvest is nearly
complete. Western Oregon had many dry days in the latter half of October that
allowed completion of harvest work in most orchards.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.9 million pounds for

October, 44 percent more than September and 12 percent more than a
year ago. October weather conditions were variable with a mix of sunshine and
rain. Papaya ringspot virus continued to depress yields and shorten the life of
infected fields.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,135 acres, 2 percent higher than
September but 12 percent lower than October 1996. Harvested area, totaling
1,955 acres, was unchanged from last month but 28 percent more than a year ago.

California Fruits and Nuts: Harvest of several fruit and nut crops was active

during October. Picking of raisin grapes ended,
but table and wine grape harvesting continued throughout the month. The apple
harvest was active with Fuji and Granny Smith the primary varieties. Kiwifruit
harvest gained momentum with larger sizes reported. Other crops picked during
October were Asian pears, olives, persimmons, pomegranates, pistachios, and
walnuts. Stone fruit orchards were pruned, fertilized, cultivated, and
irrigated.

California Citrus: The 1996-97 crop year’s Valencia orange harvest was winding
down as the new crop Navel orange harvest was beginning.
Grapefruit, lemons, and tangerines were also picked. Good quality was reported.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-9 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

Area Harvested Production

1,000 Acres Bushels -- 1,000 Bushels --
AL : 315 380 34.0 26.0 23.0 10,710 8,740
AR : 3,500 3,550 32.0 32.0 32.0 112,000 113,600
DE 3 217 221 35.0 28.0 30.0 7,595 6,630
FL 1/ : 33 38 32.0 30.0 30.0 1,056 1,140
GA : 390 420 26.0 20.0 20.0 10,140 8,400
IL : 9,850 9,950 40.5 43.0 43.0 398,925 427,850
IN > 5,360 5,350 38.0 42.0 44.0 203,680 235,400
IA > 9,450 10,400 44.0 48.0 47.0 415,800 488,800
KS : 2,000 2,300 37.0 35.0 36.0 74,000 82,800
KY : 1,180 1,280 38.0 38.0 36.0 44,840 46,080
LA : 1,080 1,350 33.0 30.0 29.0 35,640 39,150
MD z 480 530 37.0 25.0 27.0 17,760 14,310
MI : 1,640 1,890 28.5 39.0 39.0 46,740 73,710
MN 5,900 6,700 38.0 40.0 40.0 224,200 268,000
MS 1,750 2,050 31.0 29.0 30.0 54,250 61,500
MO > 4,050 4,350 37.0 37.0 37.0 149,850 179,450
NE : 3,010 3,450 45.0 41.0 40.0 135,450 138,000
NJ 1/ : 119 132 37.0 30.0 30.0 4,403 3,960
NC : 1,200 1,330 29.0 25.0 26.0 34,800 34,580
ND 1,290 29.0 27.0 28.0 24,505 36,120
OH 4,490 35.0 43.0 45.0 157,150 202,050
OK i/ 320 26.0 26.0 26.0 7,410 8,320
PA 1/ 365 40.0 35.0 35.0 11,400 12,775
sc 610 25.0 20.0 21.0 13,500 12,810
sD 3,450 34.0 34.0 35.0 90,780 120,750
TN 1,270 35.0 35.0 36.0 40,250 45,720
TX 400 26.0 27.0 25.0 7,020 10,000
VA 490 34.0 26.0 27.0 16,320 13,230
WI 960 37.0 44.0 44.0 32,190 42,240
us 69,816 37.6 39.0 39.2 2,382,364 2,736,115

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

U.S. Soybean Production

1988 - 1997
Billion Bushels

3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40

1 1 L L A ! L A fl
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-14 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain:
Row Width for Selected States,

Percentage Distributions by Row Width and Average

1993-97

20.5

Greater:

width

and of
Year
:Number
IL 1993 : 244
1994 : 241
1995 : 268
1996 : 257
1997 : 270
IN 1993 : 166
1994 : 158
1995 : 175
1996 : 146
1997: 169
TA 1993 : 259
1994 : 276
1995 : 288
1996 : 281
1997 : 281
MN 1993 : 158
1994 : 168
1995 : 163
1996 : 165
1997 : 167
NE 1993 : 206
1994 : 211
1995 : 205
1996 : 234
1997 : 230
OH 1993 : 133
1994 : 127
1995 : 132
1996 : 101
1997 : 113
WI 1993 : 112
1994 : 115
1995 : 110
1996 84
1997 g1

BR

aN

ORrPOP BORNU

Ue ARO

Percent

17.2
21.6
19.4
14.4
17.8

22.3
13.9
21.8
21.2
16.6

15.5
20.7
14.6
19.2
19.2

13.9
15.5
12.2
13.9
17.4

18.9
19.5
15.6
11.6
17.0

19.5
26.8
30.3
17.8
18.6

23.3
20.9
15.4
23.8
16.5

13.1

9.1
10.5
10.9
11.9

18.9
16.6
16.1
12.8
13.5

BODOH
ROWS

22.3
26.1
23.6
23.8

Inches

32.4
32.1
31.9
31.7
31.6

31.2
31.2
31.4
31.5
31.3

33.1
32.9
33.3
32.7
32.5

32.0
31.7
31.3
31.8
31.4

33.4
33.5
33.6
33.4
33.1

31.6
31.5
31.5
31.4
31.5

34.0
34.1
34.0
33.5

1/ Spacings based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective

yield survey.

2/ For 1993 - 1995 this column of data contains information for 30.5 or less.

Crop Production
November 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA
Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,

20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.

SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data
products, and services:

INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet.
For access, connect to the Internet and select:

1. Worldwide Web: http: //www.usda.gov/nass/ OR

2. For Gopher/Telenet/FTP access:
HOST=usda.mannlib.cornell.edu OR

3. For a subscription direct to your e-mail address,
send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu
and in the body of the message type the word: list

AUTOFAX ACCESS

NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine.
Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax.
. Respond to the voice prompts.

PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS
CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 1-800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)

Other areas, please call 1-703-834-0125 FAX: 1-703-834-0110
(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.)

ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about
NASS or its products or services, contact the NASS INFORMATION HOTLINE at
1-800-727-9540, 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET, or e-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-14 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Yield per Acre and Production, United States,

1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre

Production

Corn for Grain Bu : 127.1
Sorghum for Grain ” : 67.5
Rice 1/ 6,121
Soybeans for Beans 37.6
Peanuts 2,653
All Cotton 1/ 707
Upland 1/ 701
Amer-Pima 1/ 991
Cottonseed
Potatoes
Fall 364
Total 350
Tobacco 2,071
Sugarbeets 20.2
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed 33.1

Hazelnuts

360
346
2,069
21.0

32.5

9,293,435 93,311,705 9,359,485
802,974 664,499 658,508
171,321 179,383 179,972

2,382,364 2,721,843 2,736,115

3,661,205 3,514,625 3,500,375
18,942.0 18,409.5 18,847.5
18,413.5 17,863.5 18,299.5

528.5 546.0 548.0
7,143.5 7,058.8 7,228.8
453,436 417,533
498,633 459,426

1,517,334 1,646,796 1,645,580

26,680 29,638 29,998
29,462 29,695 29,689

18.5 40.0 41.0

1/ Yield in pounds.

Crop Summary:

Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,

1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

(Metric Units)

Corn for Grain 2 7.97
Sorghum for Grain 4.23
Rice 6.86
Soybeans for Beans 2.53
Peanuts 2.97
All Cotton 0.79
Upland 0.79
Amer~Pima 1.11
Cottonseed
Potatoes
Fall 40.77
Total 39.19
Tobacco 2.32
Sugarbeets 45.20
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed 74.30
Hazelnuts

Metric Tons

236,064,120 236,528,200 237,741,870

20,396,480 16,879,050 16,726,870
7,770,990 8,136,680 8,163,350
64,837,320 74,076,430 74,464,850
1,660,690 1,594,210 1,587,740
4,124,140 4,008,200 4,103,560
4,009,070 3,889,320 3,984,250
115,070 118,880 119,310
6,480,470 6,403,640 6,557,860
20,567,510 18,938,980
22,617,610 20,839,210
688,250 746,970 746,420
24,203,690 26,887,140 27,213,820

26,727,480
16,780

26,938,850
36,290

26,933,410
37,190

Crop Production
November 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 514 million pounds, up
slightly from last month, but 12 percent below last year. Yield per acre, at
2,638 pounds, is 281 pounds below last year’s average. Virginia’s harvest
neared completion at 98 percent in early November and the North Carolina harvest
was only 78 percent complete, as rains hampered the harvesting. The North
Carolina crop suffered from below normal temperatures early in the season,
followed by dry weather.

The Southwest peanut crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total
989 million pounds, down 2 percent from last month, but up 7 percent from last
year. Yields are expected to average 2,533 pounds per acre, down 11 pounds from
last year. On November 2, harvest was 62 percent complete in Texas, one point
behind last year’s progress.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.2 million acres, is unchanged

from last month, but is up 5 percent from last year. American-Pima
harvested acres also remain unchanged from October, at 249,000 acres, and
represents a 3 percent decrease from 1996.

Cotton fields in the Texas Plains were being sprayed in preparation for harvest.
Rainfall in the Plains and North Central delayed harvest during the month, and
the later crop along the Upper Coast showed quality damage from heavy rains
during the season. Several locations in the Plains and North Central recorded
the first frost during late October, which increased the defoliation. Harvest
progress in early November, at 45 percent, was 2 points behind the 5-year
average. Objective yield data indicate Texas' large boll counts are the second
highest since 1987 and boll weights rank sixth.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
crop remained in mostly fair to good condition during October. In mid-October,
about one-fourth of Mississippi’s crop was rated in excellent condition, while
Arkansas had 17 percent in excellent condition. Harvest exceeded the 5-year
average pace in Louisiana and Mississippi in early November. Louisiana had

98 percent of the crop harvested, 6 points ahead of the 5-year average, and
Mississippi producers were 85 percent complete, 1 point above average. Harvest
in the other States was about three-fourths finished, slightly behind their
normal pace. Compared to the previous 10 years, large boll counts ranked third
highest in Arkansas and highest in Mississippi but ranked the third lowest in
Louisiana. Boll weights ranked eighth in Arkansas, tenth in Louisiana, and
sixth in Mississippi, during this same period.

In early November,Arizona’s harvest progress was 4 percent behind normal, at

64 percent, as rains during the previous month slowed this activity.
California’s harvest in the southern areas was slightly delayed from the
rainfall associated with tropical storm Nora, but harvest was 9 percent ahead of
the normal harvest pace of 66 percent. Harvest was completed in the Imperial
and Sacramento Valleys and progressed normally in the San Joaquin Valley. Some
producers in Kings County were making a second pick. Data from the objective
yield survey show California's large boll counts as the lowest and boll weights
fourth highest since 1987.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina) late October rains delayed harvest in all States. North Carolina
showed 34 percent of the acreage harvested in early November, 21 points behind
average, and Georgia had 47 percent of the acreage harvested, compared to the
average of 58 percent. South Carolina producers also lagged the average harvest
progress by 13 points at 41 percent complete.

American-Pima production is forecast at 548,000 bales, up 2,000 bales from
October, and up 4 percent from last year's output. Yield is indicated at

1,056 pounds per harvested acre, up 65 pounds from last year. Arizona producers
had harvested 64 percent of the acreage at the beginning of November. Harvest

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-7 NASS, USDA



Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

Tons (In-shell Basis)

OR 38,800 18,400 40,800
WA 1/ 200 100 200
us 39,000 18,500 41,000

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 1996-97

1,000 Pounds

Sep 3,585 3,070 1,630 1,955 3,005 2,685
Oct 3,550 3,135 1,530 1,955 3,450 3,860
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-21 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield
surveys in 5 States which account for about 63 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton
production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton
fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1
through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts
shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not
official estimates of NASS.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September and November 1993-1997,
and Final, 1993-1996 1/

Arkansas
YOAL torn nn nn nnn nr nt nnn nnn nnn rn nnn ncn nnn nnn nnn s saan
3 Sep. i Nov. 3 Final 2 Sep : Nov : Final
Number
1993 : 859 769 753 930 839 839
1994 : 1,019 813 812 828 805 806
1995 : 850 689 689 751 682 680
1996 : 857 752 741 707 772 750
1997 978 783 701 714
1993 : 746 662 661 697 619 608
1994 808 747 748 864 761 760
1995 : 679 615 615 682 607 607
1996 : 659 655 623 816 770 744
1997: 637 670 906 870
: Texas
Sep : Nov. : Final
1993: 505 480 489
1994: 515 484 486
1995 : 423 409 415
1996 : 387 504 505
1997: 511 496

1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls
(at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs,
per 40 feet of row. In November small bolls are excluded.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-27 NASS, USDA



Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre
Selected States, 1993-97 1/

Number of Ears

IL Oct : 22,600 22,650 22,900 23,700 23,500
Nov : 22,600 22,600 22,850 23,600 23,400
IN Oct : 22,400 22,150 23,000 22,750 22,150
Nov 2 22,200 22,150 22,950 22,700 22,150
IA oct : 22,700 24,050 24,050 24,350 24,600
Nov : 22,500 24,000 24,000 24,250 24,550
MN Oct : 23,700 26,950 25,750 26,400 26,150
Nov 3 24,900 26,950 25,700 26,450 25,900
NE Oct : 21,300 21,200 21,800 22,600 21,900
Nov 3 21,100 21,300 21,700 22,550 21,900
OH oct : 21,700 22,400 22,650 22,300 22,500
Nov : 21,700 22,500 22,500 22,000 22,300
wi Oct : 22,600 24,600 23,600 24,250 24,350
Nov 23,100 24,650 23,250 24,650 24,300

1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Corn for Grain: Frequency of Farmer Reported Row Width,
Selected States, 1995-97

State 0; -------------------------------------~-------------------------
and Less than More than
30

IL 1995 : 1 203 39 24

1996 : 198 29 25 1
1997 2 223 36 20 i
IN 1995 : 3 148 28 8
1996 : 119 23 4
1997 : 149 25 5
IA 1995 : 178 30 79 2
1996 : 2 183 24 69
1997 : 1 200 32 59
MN 1995 : 9 114 16 22
1996 : 3 121 22 is 1
1997 : 40 126 21 16
NE 1995 : 1 98 79 16 2
1996 : 116 91 20 i
1997 : 135 92 18
OH = 1995 : 121 7 7
1996 : 1 84 9 5
1997 : 1 99 10 7 1
WI 1995 1 59 13 44 2
1996 1 45 17 19 2
1997 2 50 14 36 1
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1997 A-23 NASS, USDA



was nearly complete in the western area, more than one-half was picked in the
central area, and good progress was occurring in the east. In California,
harvest began in early October in the southern San Joaquin Valley and progressed
north during the month. Late October rains didn’t significantly affect yield
potential or quality. In the Texas Wintergarden area harvest is complete and is
active in the Trans Pecos area.

All cotton ginnings totaled 8,114,800 running bales prior to November 1,
compared with 8,868,700 running bales ginned to the same date last year and
8,430,350 running bales in 1995.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1997 is forecast at 1.65 billion

pounds, up 8 percent from 1996. Harvested acres are estimated at
795,250 acres, 9 percent above last year. Yields for 1997 are expected to
average 2,069 pounds per acre, 3 pounds below last month's forecast and 2 pounds
below the average for 1996.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 993 million pounds, up 1 percent from
last month's forecast and 9 percent above a year ago. Average yield
expectations increased from a month ago in all flue-cured producing states
except South Carolina where yields remained unchanged. The projected average
yield, at 2,200 pounds per acre, increased 18 pounds from October 1 and is

49 pounds above last year's average yield.

Burley production is forecast at 563 million pounds, 2 percent below October 1
projections but 8 percent above 1996. Average yield, at 1,868 pounds per acre,
decreased 35 pounds from a month ago and is 72 pounds below the 1996 average
yield. Kentucky burley stripping has advanced slowly this fall due to dry
weather. As of November 2, 19 percent was stripped and was rated in mostly
good condition.

Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 30 million tons in

1997, an increase of 12 percent from 1996 and up 1 percent from the
October forecast. Area for harvest, at 1.43 million acres, is up 8 percent from
last year but down fractionally from last month. The average yield, at 21.0 tons
per acre, is up 0.8 tons from 1996 and up 0.3 tons from October.

In the Red River Valley, sugarbeet harvest progressed behind the normal in
September due to unseasonably warm temperatures. However, lifting caught up to
the normal pace by the end of October before finishing in early November.
Harvest in Idaho progressed normally with no major problems reported. Michigan’s
sugarbeet yield was the best in several years as harvest conditions were
excellent. Producers in California enjoyed mostly favorable growing conditions
during 1997, with no major disease or pest problems to affect the crop. In
Colorado and Nebraska, yield forecasts were down from October as producers
realized lower yields than were earlier expected.

Sugarcane: U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1997 is expected to
total 29.7 million tons, up 1 percent from 1996 but virtually

unchanged from October. The expected area for harvest, at 914,500 acres, is

3 percent above last year but unchanged from October. The forecasted yield, at

32.5 tons per acre, is 0.6 tons below 1996 but unchanged from October.

Sugarcane yield in Louisiana was expected to be a little lower than last year’s
record yield. Insect pressure from the sugarcane borer was light to moderate.

The crop was a little short because of a dry spell during August and September.
Harvest was running slightly ahead of schedule. The first Florida sugarcane mill
opened October 15 and the last mill was expected to open November 5. There have

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-8 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,
State, and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

Production

--- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured
Type 11, Old Belts :

Nc : 76,000 86,000 2,120 2,050 161,120 176,300

VA : 37,700 40,000 2,235 2,200 84,260 88,000

US : 113,700 126,000 2,158 2,098 245,380 264,300
Type 12, Eastern NC :

Belt :

NC : 167,000 181,000 2,025 2,250 338,175 407,250
Type 13, NC Border & :

SC Belt :

Nc : 37,000 38,000 1,980 2,350 73,260 89,300

sc : 51,000 54,000 2,310 2,250 117,810 121,500

us : 88,000 92,000 2,171 2,291 191,070 210,800
Type 14, GA-FL Belt :

FL 3 7,500 8,200 2,680 2,570 20,100 21,074

GA 46,000 44,000 2,470 2,030 113,620 89,320

US 53,500 52,200 2,499 2,115 133,720 110,394

Total 11-14
Class 2, Fire-cured
Type 21, VA Belt

422,200 451,200 2,151 2,200 908,345 992,744

VA 1,100 1,200 1,580 1,500 1,738 1,800
Type 22, Eastern
District
KY 3,800 3,900 2,720 2,450 10,336 9,555
TN 3 7,500 7,600 2,550 2,400 19,125 18,240
us : 11,300 11,500 2,607 2,417 29,461 27,795
Type 23, Western :
District :
KY z 3,600 3,800 3,160 3,000 11,376 11,400
TMN : 580 580 2,850 2,500 1,653 1,450
US : 4,180 4,380 3,117 2,934 13,029 12,850
Total 21-23 : 16,580 17,080 2,668 2,485 44,228 42,445
Class 3, Air-cured z
Class 3A, Light z
Air-cured :
Type 31, Burley Hy
IN 2 7,600 8,900 1,970 2,150 14,972 19,135
KY : 185,000 210,000 1,980 1,900 366,300 399,000
MO 1/ : 2,700 3,100 2,230 2,050 6,021 6,355
Nc : 7,800 9,000 1,665 1,650 12,987 14,850
OH : 8,000 9,500 1,580 2,000 12,640 19,000
TN : 46,000 49,000 1,915 1,700 88,090 83,300
VA H 9,500 10,000 1,835 1,800 17,433 18,000
wv 1/ : 1,700 1,800 1,200 1,800 2,040 3,240
US : 268,300 301,300 1,940 1,868 520,483 562,880
Type 32, Southern MD :
Beit
MD 8,000 8,000 1,250 1,500 10,000 12,000
PA 3,200 3,000 1,900 1,900 6,080 5,700
US 11,200 11,000 1,436 1,609 16,080 17,700
Total 31-32 279,500 312,300 1,920 1,859 536,563 580,580
See footnotes at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1997 A-18 NASS, USDA


State

cT 2/
FL 1/

ID i/

LA 1/
ME 2/

MA 2/

MS 1/
MT 1/
NH 2/

No 1/
NM 1/

OK 1/
OR 1/

RI 2/

UT 1/
VT 2/

WA 1/
wv 1/

wy 1/

Corn for Grain:

and United States,

280
H 40
3 230
: 220
: 940

150
112
525

40
10,800
5,450
12,450
: 2,350
1,200
523

465

1,000 Acres -

260
45
170
260
1,030

146

80

500

40
11,000
5,850
11,950
2,700
1,220
490

450

102
85
660
900
650
3,450
180
20
1,120

335
3,350
650
1,800
21

340
110
45
3,100
55

74,049

Area Harvested, Yield,
1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

82.0
175.0
125.0
160.0
142.0

143.0
88.0
95.0

135.0

136.0

123.0

138.0

152.0

124.0

125.0

139.0

94.0
125.0
102.0
134.0
137.0
143.0

126.0
175.0
107.0

95.0

91.0
111.0
145.0
165.0
119.0

79.0
100.0
116.0
112.0
130.0

126.0
185.0
105.0
111.0
123.0

95.0
175.0
110.0
180.0
148.0

110.0
100.0
110.0
145.0
129.0
120.0
140.0
135.0
110.0
115.0

75.0

Bushels

and Production by State

111.0
133.0
105.0
120.0
130.0
132.0

133,480

21,450
9,856
49,875
5,400
1,468,800
670,350
1,718,100
357,200
148,800
65,375

64,635

216,200
868,750
61,710
355,100
2,055
1,186,900

11,844
14,700
67,410
85,500
65,520
305,250
24,650
5,445
127,330

30,020
370,000
78,880
201,600
2,730

39,060
22,200
4,200
333,000
6,150

9,293,435

Bushels --

24,700
7,875
18,700
44,200
152,440

15,330
8,000
55,000
5,800
1,397,000
702,000
1,673,000
378,000
125,660
56,350

36,000

255,300
857,850
49,350
342,000
1,950
1,161,600

9,690
14,450
76,560
78,300
59,800

462,300
27,000
3,700
100,800

33,500
335,000
68,250
248,400
2,625

29,920
20,900
4,275
409,200
6,710

9,359,485

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production
November 1997

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain: The final production forecast for the 1997 crop is

659 million bushels, 1 percent lower than the October
forecast and 18 percent below 1996. The U.S. yield is forecast at 69.2 bushels
per acre, down 0.7 bushels from last month but 1.7 bushels above 1996. Area
harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from October, at 9.51 million acres,
down 20 percent from the previous year. South Dakota and Illinois increased
their yield forecasts from October, up ten and four bushels per acre,
respectively. Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Louisiana showed small declines
in yield.

As of November 2, 76 percent of the crop in the 12 major States had been
harvested, progressing at the same rate as the five-year average. A major snow
storm the last week of October slowed harvest progress in Colorado, Kansas and
Nebraska. The extent of crop damage due to the heavy snow is expected to be
minimal.

Rice: Production for 1997 is forecast at 180 million cwt, up 5 percent from a

year ago. If realized, this would be the third highest production on
record. The average yield is forecast at 5,926 pounds per acre, up 19 pounds
from October 1 but down 195 pounds from a year ago. Area for harvest, estimated
at 3.04 million acres, is unchanged from October 1 but 9 percent above last
year.

Yields in Louisiana increased from last month. The ratoon harvesting went well,
which attributed to the increase in yield. In Texas, the yield decreased from
last month. The ratoon crop in Texas will be limited as a result of the late
planted 1997 crop. Yields in Arkansas, California, Mississippi, and Missouri
remained unchanged from October.

Fall Potatoes: Production of fall potatoes for 1997 is forecast at

418 million cwt, down 8 percent from last year but 4 percent
above 1995. Area harvested, at 1.16 million acres, is down 7 percent from last
year. The average yield is projected at 360 cwt per acre, down 4 cwt from last
year but 26 cwt above two years ago. Planting started late this year but caught
up with warm June weather and finished on time. Heavy rains flooded many fields
in North Central States and hurt yields. Harvest started late, but good weather
in October allowed an early and uneventful finish. Total potato production from
all four seasons is 459 million cwt in 1997, down 8 percent from last year but
4 percent above 1995.

Five Eastern States produced 31.8 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1997, down
7 percent from last year but 6 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest
totaled 118,500 acres, down 6 percent from last year. The average yield of
268 cwt per acre lost 5 cwt from a year ago. A cool, wet spring delayed early
planting. Dry weather in July and August stunted growth and reduced sizing.
Production in Maine fell 9 percent from a year ago. New York’s production
increased 7 percent, while Pennsylvania’s dropped 24 percent. Production in
Massachusetts was down slightly, but Rhode Island gained 8 percent.

Eight Central States’ production is forecast at 96.4 million cwt this year, down
10 percent from last year but up 1 percent from 1995. Harvested area totaled
338,400 acres, down 8 percent from last year. The average yield of 285 cwt per
acre slipped 7 cwt from last year. Heavy summer rains flooded out many fields
in North Dakota and Minnesota and reduced yields. The Wisconsin crop was also
down from last year. Michigan's production rebounded 5 percent after last
year’s rain damaged crop. Sharply higher acreage and a good growing season
increased Nebraska's potato output by 73 percent. Indiana, Ohio, and South
Dakota registered smaller crops than last year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-5 NASS, USDA



DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM PALMER)
October 25, 1997 UPDATED BIWEEKLY
¥ 4
MOIST] ‘Lona | t 7 ff
ee \
oy I ig
ae ho
“)
MOIST,
4
os
f
aa ~ | MOIST 1)
i
Awe MOST a A pee
EXTREME!
wt MOIST MOIST:
a Pa
iS
‘SEVERE
==
EY hE
MOST.
—
2
Last chart for season
NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY pesedon pririnary raps
Drought Severity
Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal

dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-2 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Crop and Unit

Oats
Barley
All Wheat
Winter
Durum
Other Spring
“Rye
Sunflower
All Hay
Alfalfa
All Other
Dry Edible Beans 2/
Dry Edible Peas 2/
Austrian Winter
Peas 2/
Lentils 2/
Potatoes
Winter
Spring
Summer
Hops
Ginger Root (HI)
Apples, Comm'l
Peaches
Pears
Grapes
Sweet Cherries
Tart Cherries
Apricots
Olives (CA)
Dried Prunes (CA)
Prunes and Plums
(excl CA)
Almonds (CA)
Pecans
Walnuts (CA)

1/ Estimates for current

2/ Yield in pounds.

Crop Production
November 1997

United States, 1996-97
(Domestic Units)

: 57.8
: 58.5
z 36.3
37.2
32.6
35.1
26.0
: 1,435
: 2.45
: 3.27

: 1.91
: 1,592
: 1,304

> 1,412
: 952

: 226
: 249
: 261
: 1,698
: 47,000

60.5
58.3
39.7
45.0
27.7
29.9
26.1
1,334
2.50
3.32
1.99
1,678
2,098

1,519
1,387

203
250
262
1,680
44,000

Yield per Acre and Production,

155,273
395,751
2,285,133
1,477,058
116,090
691,985
9,016
3,586,615
149,457
79,377
70,080
27,354
2,671.0

103
1,333

3,273
22,417
19,507
74,970.5
9,400
10,355,000
2,070,300
820.8
5,548.2
154.3
270,300
79.8
166.0

220.0

20.0
510,000
221,500

208.0

176,104
374,478
2,526,552
1,882,609
86,193
557,750
8,912
3,745,280
152,141
78,168
73,973
29,255
5,760.0

82
2,274

3,124
21,498
17,271
73,838.0
12,100
10,423,900
2,643,900
1,019.8
6,659.4
191.3
242,200
132.0
95.0

215.0

28.4
680,000
275,000

230.0

year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA



Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97
(Domestic Units)

: 1,000 Acres

Oats 3 4,661 5,169 2,685 2,911
Barley : 7,144 €,910 6,767 6,425
All Wheat : 75,621 70,989 62,927 63,577
Winter : 51,958 48,342 39,679 41,813
Durum : 3,630 3,250 3,556 3,107
Other Spring 2 20,033 19,397 19,692 18,657
Rye 3 1,467 1,433 347 341
Sunflower : 2,556 2,920 2,499 2,807
Flaxseed : 96 152 92 146
All Hay 3 61,029 60,807
Alfalfa : 24,291 23,556
All Other 2 36,738 37,251
Dry Edible Beans : 1,813.0 1,913.6 1,717.7 1,743.2
Dry Edible Peas : 215.9 292.6 204.9 274.6
Austrian Winter Peas 3 8.6 6.1 7.3 5.4
Lentils 3 147.2 174.0 140.0 164.0
Potatoes 3
Winter : 14.5 15.6 14.5 15.4
Spring Fy 93.4 87.7 90.0 86.1
Summer : 78.0 68.9 74.8 66.0
Sweetpotatoes 2 89.1 87.8 84.8 84.7
Hops 44.2 44.0
Ginger Root (HI) 0.2 0.3

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1996-97
(Metric Units)

Crop. teennn------ So telatateaeaeeneeete
1996 1997 1/
Hectares

Oats 1,886,260 2,091,840 1,086,590 1,178,050
Barley 2,891,110 2,796,410 2,738,540 2,600,130
All Wheat : 30,603,060 28,728,540 25,465,930 25,728,980

Winter : 21,026,880 19,563,520 16,057,690 16,921,300

Durum : 1,469,020 1,315,240 1,439,080 1,257,370

Other Spring : 8,107,150 7,849,770 7,969,160 7,550,300
Rye H 593,680 579,920 140,430 138,000
Sunflower : 1,034,390 1,181,690 1,011,320 1,135,960
Flaxseed 3 38,850 61,510 37,230 59,080
All Hay : 24,697,830 24,607,980

Alfalfa : 9,830,320 9,532,880

All Other : 14,867,500 15,075,110
Dry Edible Beans : 733,700 774,410 695,140 705,420
Dry Edible Peas 3 87,370 118,410 82,920 111,130
Austrian Winter Peas : 3,480 2,470 2,950 2,190
Lentils 2 59,570 70,420 56,660 66,370
Potatoes 2

winter : 5,870 6,310 5,870 6,230

Spring : 37,800 35,490 36,420 34,840

summer : 31,570 27,520 30,270 26,710
Sweetpotatoes : 36,060 35,530 34,320 34,280
Hops 17,870 17,790
Ginger Root (HI) 80 110

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-6 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 (continued)

Area Harvested : Yield 3 Production

Class and Type

: --- Pounds --
Class 3, Air-cured :
Class 3B, Dark :
Air-cured :
Type 35, One Sucker :
Belt 2
KY : 2,100 2,200 2,340 2,300 4,914 5,060
TN : 480 490 2,125 2,000 1,020 980
us 3 2,580 2,690 2,300 2,245 5,934 6,040
Type 36, Green River
Belt
KY 3 1,200 1,200 2,180 2,250 2,616 2,700
Type 37, VA Sun-cured:
Belt :
VA : 70 70 1,600 1,400 112 98
Total 35-37 : 3,850 3,960 2,250 2,232 8,662 8,838

Class 4, Cigar Filler
Type 41, PA Seedleaf :
PA 2 4,600 4,600 2,040 2,100 9,384 9,660
Class 5, Cigar Binder :
Class 5A, CT Valley

Binder
Type 51, CT valley
Broadleaf z
cT 3 1,220 1,250 1,840 1,690 2,245 2,113
MA 3 410 670 1,600 1,830 656 1,226
us : 1,630 1,920 1,780 1,739 2,901 3,339
Class 5B, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI:
WI : 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,300 3,610 4,370
Type 55, Northern WI:
wi : 1,000 850 1,535 1,750 1,535 1,488
Total 54-55 : 2,900 2,750 1,774 2,130 5,145 5,858
Total 51-55 : 4,530 4,670 1,776 1,969 8,046 9,197
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:
Type 61, CT Valley :
Shade-grown 2
cr : 2,040 1,000 1,490 1,500 1,550 1,500
MA : 390 440 1,425 1,400 556 616
US : 1,430 1,440 1,473 1,469 2,106 2,116
All Cigar Types :
Total 41-61 : 10,560 10,710 1,850 1,958 19,536 20,973

All Tobacco 795,250 2,071 2,069 1,517,334 1,645,580

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-19 NASS, USDA


Fall Potatoes: Area Planted by State
and United States, 1995-97

1,000 Acres

CA : 10.5

co : 77.0
ID 3 390.0
IN : *5.3
ME t *71.0
MA : 2.7
MI 2 49.0
MN : 79.0
MT : 10.4
NE 3 *19.6
NV : 7.3
NM : 6.3
NY z 30.0

ND 2 125.0

* Updated from the July 12, 1997, “Crop Production” report.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-9 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Pods with Beans and Row Width

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting soybean objective
yield surveys in 8 States during 1997. Plots are randomly selected from a
scientifically drawn sample of soybean fields, which are visited monthly
from August through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements.
Sample data and the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the
following table are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates but
are intended to show trends in soybean production practices.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet
Selected States, 1993 - 97 1/ 2/

Number of Pods

AR Sep 3/: NA NA NA NA NA

Nov : 1,399 1,782 1,755 1,521 2,098
Final : 1,327 1,673 1,609 1,481

IL Sep : 1,937 1,745 1,816 1,505 1,828
Nov : 2,712 1,639 1,764 1,573 1,708
Final : 1,701 1,636 1,764 1,581

IN Sep : 1,938 1,850 1,755 1,416 1,622
Nov : 1,703 1,574 1,677 1,470 1,532
Final : 1,703 1,570 1,677 1,457

IA Sep : 1,336 1,887 1,739 1,654 1,889
Nov > 1,340 1,820 1,611 1,463 1,458
Final : 1,340 1,820 1,616 1,463

MN Sep : 1,037 1,678 1,613 1,543 1,585
Nov : 1,106 1,496 1,501 1,487 1,506
Final : 1,105 1,496 1,501 1,487

MO Sep 1,493 1,470 895 1,491 1,539
Nov : 1,727 1,643 1,462 1,688 1,591
Final : 1,699 1,659 1,469 1,655

NE Sep > 1,469 1,676 1,404 1,715 1,716
Nov : 1,414 1,826 1,420 1,514 1,345
Final : 1,445 1,826 1,420 1,514

OH Sep : 1,617 1,950 1,790 1,452 1,711
Nov 1,361 1,643 1,647 1,378 1,467
Final 1,361 1,643 1,650 1,383

1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ Final pod counts will be published in January.
3/ Not available due to plant immaturity.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-25 NASS, USDA


NVYsey National

Crop Coe
Production uspa

Service
Washington, D.C.

cea CHESSER pen T-7—7 We cE RBH SRC UC TF “RUC Tse
Released November 10, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture, For
information on “Crop Production” call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Forecasts refer to November 1, 1997. Index and report
features are located at the end of this report.

Corn and Soybeans Up Fractionally
Cotton Up Two Percent

Corn production is forecast at 9.36 billion bushels, less than 1 percent above
last month and 1996. If realized, this will be the third highest corn
production on record behind 1994 and 1992. Based on conditions as of November
1, yields are expected to average 126.4 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels from
last month but down 0.7 bushels from 1996. Acreage harvested and to be
harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last
month. Yield prospects increased in Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Forecasted
yield decreased in Illinois. Indiana, Iowa, and Nebraska yields remained
unchanged. As of November 2, corn harvest in the major producing States was

75 percent complete.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 2.74 billion bushels, virtually
unchanged from the October 1 forecast, but up 15 percent from 1996. The
previous record of 2.52 billion bushels was set in 1994. The yield is forecast
at 39.2 bushels per acre, 0.2 bushels above the October 1 forecast and

1.6 bushels above last year. The forecasted yield increased from the previous
month in Indiana and Ohio, but decreased in Iowa and Nebraska. Forecasted yields
in the remaining major producing States were unchanged. As of November 2, the
soybean harvest was 89 percent complete.

Cr Pr 2-2 (11-97)



Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November i, 1997

Production

3 1,000 Acres -- -- 1,000 Cwt --
AR : 1,170 1,337 71,945 74,872
CA : 500 513 37,459 43,605
LA : 533 565 25,977 27,120
MS : 208 268 12,480 14,740
MO 1/ : 90 95 4,995 5,130
TX 298 259 18,465 14,504
US 2,799 3,037 , 171,321 179,971

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All
1,000 Cwt
1995 121,730 51,241 900 173,871
1996 113, 462 56,790 1,069 171,321
1997 1/ 125,832 52,595 1,544 179,971

1/ Indicated November 1, 1997, rice class estimates are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-12 NASS, USDA


U.S. Corn Production

1988 - 1997
Billion Bushels

11.00

10.10

10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00

6.00

5.00

ou f 1 f 1 L L n ! 1
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Year

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States

1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

Area Harvested Production

State

1996 : 1997 : 1996 1997

- 1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bushels --

AL 1/ 10 9 55.0 60.0 60.0 550 540
AR 220 150 74.0 72.0 72.0 16,280 10,800
co 260 160 51.0 40.0 40.0 13,260 6,400
GA 1/ 40 40 41.0 46.0 46.0 1,640 1,840
IL 220 150 84.0 82.0 86.0 18,480 12,900
KS 4,600 3,550 77.0 77.0 77.0 354,200 273,350
KY 1/ 23 13 92.0 75.0 75.0 2,116 975
LA 153 107 76.0 75.0 72.0 11,628 7,704
MS z 72 33 70.0 65.0 65.0 5,040 2,145
MO : 580 430 91.0 89.0 89.0 52,780 38,270
NE 1,030 800 95.0 83.0 83.0 97,850 66,400
NM 225 230 33.0 50.0 47.0 7,425 10,810
ne 1/ 10 qi 57.0 49.0 49.0 570 539
OK 490 490 59.0 57.0 55.0 28,910 26,950
sc 1/ 5 4 50.0 50.0 50.0 250 200
sD 145 170 55.0 58.0 68.0 7,975 11,560
TN 1/ 18 15 90.0 85.0 85.0 1,620 1,275
TX 3,800 3,150 48.0 61.0 59.0 182,400 185,850
us 11,901 9,512 67.5 69.9 69.2 802,974 658,508

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-11 NASS, USDA



slowed by late-month showers in the Southeast. Some grain storage shortages were
encountered as grain bins filled rapidly and some elevators were forced to use
temporary storage facilities.

Cotton harvest progressed ahead of normal in the western cotton-producing
States, but behind normal in eastern States. Unseasonably hot weather in the
Southwest helped cotton fields to dry out after Tropical Storm Nora. Much-needed
heat helped the Texas crop progress early in the month. However, heavy rains and
flooding caused lint loss and damage to quality at mid-month. Farmers in the
Southeast harvested cotton, rice and peanuts between rains. Rice harvest neared
completion at mid-month and peanut harvest was in the later stages by the end of
October.

Favorable weather during early October allowed sorghum growers to harvest ahead
of the normal pace in the Plains and Corn Belt. However, the early-season
snowstorm October 24-25 halted activity in Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas.
Harvest of fall-season crops proceeded under favorable conditions in the
northern Plains most of the month, but above-normal precipitation hampered
fieldwork in the Northwest. Early-month moisture fell along the middle and
northern Atlantic Coast, but came too late to help most crops. Late-month
showers hampered harvest efforts in these States.

Early in the month, very warm, dry weather allowed planting of the 1998 winter
wheat crop to progress rapidly in many States, especially Kansas, Oklahoma, and
Oregon. Planting also progressed rapidly in the Corn Belt as farmers immediately
followed a rapid fall harvest with winter wheat seeding. Later on, a major
early-season storm system brought blizzard conditions to the central Plains and
western Corn Belt, as well as rain to the Southeastern United States. Although
planting was delayed by the storm, newly emerged fields benefitted from the
precipitation. Rainfall early and late in the month benefited seeded acreage in
the Pacific Northwest.

Corn for Grain: Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million

acres, unchanged from last month but up 12 percent from 1996.
The November 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate an ear count slightly below
1996, but above the five-year average for the seven objective yield States
(Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The record
level ears per acre was set in 1996. As of November 2, 75 percent of the
acreage in the 17 major States was harvested. This compares with 62 percent for
1996 and 64 percent for the five-year average.

In Iowa, forecasted ear population is at a record high. Eighty-four percent of
the corn was harvested compared to 58 percent in 1996 and the average of
63 percent.

Forecasted ear counts in Ohio are above last year but slightly below the five-
year average. As of November 2, 41 percent of the corn was harvested, compared
to 33 percent a year ago and the five-year average of 50 percent.

In Illinois, Nebraska and Wisconsin, the forecasted ear population is below last
year but above the five-year average. In Illinois, 89 percent of the corn was
harvested as of November 2, compared to 66 percent in 1996 and the average of

75 percent. Sixty-six percent of the corn was harvested in Nebraska, compared
to 67 percent last year and the average of 62 percent. Heavy snow in parts of
Nebraska slowed the harvest and caused some stalk breakage and lodging. In
Wisconsin, 41 percent was harvested, ahead of the 34 percent for 1996 but behind
the average of 45 percent.

Indiana and Minnesota ear populations are below 1996 and below the five-year
average. As of November 2, 59 percent of the corn was harvested in Indiana,
compared to 45 percent last year and the five-year average of 60 percent. Corn
borer and western corn rootworm were a problem in some Indiana fields this year.
In Minnesota, 90 percent was harvested, ahead of last year’s 74 percent and the
average of 60 percent.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-4 NASS, USDA


October Weather Summary: Dry, warm weather prevailed across the Midwest during

the first half of the month, while widespread rainfall
covered the Plains. Record rains during the second week of the month caused
flooding in southeastern Texas, and storms early and late in the month boosted
precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest. The weather turned cold and
stormy over central and eastern parts of the country during the second half of
the month. A major storm complex brought a blizzard on October 24-25 to the
central Plains and several inches of rain to the Southeast.

October was a wet month across the Plains, Southeast, and Northwest. Monthly
precipitation totaled more than 150 percent (%) of normal over the Southeast,
with rainfall amounts exceeding 8 inches from Alabama to north Georgia. Totals
also attained 8 inches over southeast Oklahoma and adjacent Arkansas and more
than 12 inches in extreme southeast Texas, More than one foot of rain (150-250%
of normal) also fell from western Washington south to northwestern Oregon.
Monthly precipitation was high (150-350% of normal) over the northern and
central Plains, but on the dry side (50-80% of normal) from the Great Lakes
region south to the Ohio valley. Unusually dry weather (30-60% of normal)
stretched from the interior mid-Atlantic region to New England.

Monthly temperatures averaged within 2 degrees F of normal over most of the
contiguous United States, with departures slightly positive over the Plains and
slightly negative across the West. Alaskan temperatures averaged 3 to 7 degrees
below normal over the interior.

Summer warmth covered the Plains early in the month, as a dozen locations saw
October record heat on October 1-3. Pierre, SD, reported 98 degrees F on
October 2, tieing the monthly record set in 1993 and 1892. In contrast,
readings dipped to near freezing over the mid-Atlantic region, with Scranton,
PA, reporting 30 degrees F on October 2. Heavy rain and high winds battered the
West Coast on October 1. A strong flow of Gulf moisture brought heavy rains and
flooding to southeastern Texas on October 6-13. Month-to-date rainfall on
October 13 at Corpus Christi totaled 11.92 inches, already breaking the record
for the month. Record warmth covered the central and eastern States on

October 5-11, when temperatures averaged 6 to 12 degrees F above normal.
Temperatures in the 80's and low 90's set more than 40 daily-record highs this
week.

During mid-month, a strong cold front swept eastward, ending the warmth and
bringing heavy rains to the central States. Abundant rain across the mid-
Atlantic States ended long-term dryness, Colder air streamed southward into the
central and eastern States during the following week. The blizzard on October
24-25 left 12 to 18 inches of snow on the ground across southern Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas, and 1 to 3 feet across the Colorado plains. As the storm
moved eastward during the following 2 days, moderate to heavy snows fell from
Iowa to Michigan and northern Vermont to Maine. Thermometers dipped into the
teens and single digits on October 26-27 over snow-covered ground from Colorado
to Iowa.

Month's end saw drier weather in the Plains, heavy rain and wind across the
Pacific Northwest, and more heavy rain along the east coast. By the last day of
the month, warmth had eradicated most of the left-over snow from the historic
central Plains blizzard.

General Crop Comments: Very warm, dry weather in the eastern United States
provided excellent harvest conditions the first half of
October. In the Corn Belt, soybean growers harvested their crop at a near-record
pace. As soybean harvest finished, farmers immediately switched to harvesting
the Nation’s corn acreage. At mid-month, a killing frost and an early-season
snowstorm provided the necessary conditions for drying the corn crop. Heavy snow
slowed harvest for several days in the western Corn Belt. After moisture levels
dropped, harvest activity surged ahead of the normal pace. Soybean harvest was

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-3 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States, 1996-97
(Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare Production

Metric Tons

Oats 2.07 2.17 2,253,780 2,556,140
Barley 3.15 3.14 8,616,460 8,153,300
All Wheat 2.44 2.67 62,191,130 68,761,480
Winter 2.50 3.03 40,198,930 51,236,220
Durum 2.20 1.87 3,159,450 2,345,790
Other Spring 2.36 2.01 18,832,750 15,179,470
Rye 1.63 1.64 229,020 226,380
sunflower 1.61 1.50 1,626,860 1,698,830
All Hay 5.49 5.61 135,585,110 138,020,000
Alfalfa 7.33 7.44 72,009,600 70,912,820
All Other 4.28 4.45 63,575,510 67,107,180
Dry Edible Beans 1.78 1.88 1,240,760 1,326,980
Dry Edible Peas 1.46 2.35 121,150 261,270
Austrian Winter Peas 1.58 1.70 4,670 3,720
Lentils 1.07 1.55 60,460 103,150
Potatoes
Winter 25.29 22.74 148,460 141,700
Spring 27.92 27.99 1,016,820 975,130
Summer 29.23 29.33 884,820 783,400
Hops 1.90 1.88 34,010 33,490
Ginger Root (HI) 53.25 49,91 4,260 5,490
Apples, Comm'l 4,696,950 4,728,200
Peaches 939,070 1,199,250
Pears 744,570 925,100
Grapes 5,033,240 6,041,260
Sweet Cherries 139,980 173,500
Tart Cherries 122,610 109,860
Apricots 72,390 119,750
Olives (CA) 150,590 86,180
Dried Prunes (CA) 199,580 195,040
Prunes and Plums
(excl CA) : 18,140 25,760
Almonds (CA) : 231,330 308,440
Pecans : 100,470 124,740
Walnuts (CA) 3 188,690 208,650

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-8 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
surveys in 7 States during 1997. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts
and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey
and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are
intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Plant population per acre,
Selected States, 1993-97 1/

Number of Plants

IL Sep H 23,400 23,300 24,000 24,350 25,000
Nov 3 23,300 23,200 23,650 24,200 24,900
IN Sep : 23,300 22,800 23,900 23,550 23,700
Nov : 23,200 22,850 24,000 23,500 23,800
IA Sep 3 23,700 24,000 24,800 25,000 25,700
Nov : 23,500 23,950 24,650 24,950 25,500
MN Sep 2 25,000 26,100 26,400 26,500 26,300
Nov : 25,100 26,000 26,350 26,600 26,600
NE Sep 3 22,600 21,900 22,600 22,750 22,850
Nov : 22,200 21,700 22,500 22,700 22,850
OK Sep : 23,200 22,800 23,400 23,100 23,450
Nov 3 23,300 22,900 23,300 22,750 23,500
wr Sep 23,500 24,100 24,600 24,800 ° 24,750

23,600 23,600 24,000 24,900 24,800

1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-22 NASS, USDA


again as an example, changes between the November 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 80 million bushels, ranging from
0 million to 258 million bushels. The November 1 forecast has been below the
final estimate 5 times, above 4 times and unchanged for one time. This does not
imply that the November 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or
overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts
have been below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts

:Root Mean Square Error 10-year Record of
to Differences Between Forecast
2 :90% Confidence:: and Final Estimate
Crop and : Level
unit :Percent

Corn for Grain Bu:

2.3 4.0 0 258 5 4
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 4.6 8.0 3 86 4 6
Rice Cwt: 2.7 4.6 2 11.5 6 4
Soybeans for t
Beans Bu: 2.8 4.9
Cotton Bales 1/: 2.8 4.8
Fall Potatoes Cwt 2.1 3.7

1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-11 NASS, USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative
Corn Cropping PracticeS.......0.+6++. deere eee eeee B-22 .
Corn for Grain... .. eee eee ee ee ete eee A-10 B- 4
Corn for Grain Row Width........... bee eeeceenee be eeeee A-24
Cotton......... beter e eee wees eet cere ee eee beeen A-16 B- 7
Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts............-.e eee eee eee A-27
Cottonseed...... es bee eee eee eee see eeeee A-15
Crop Maps....... beet eee teen e eee ee eee eee B- 1
Crop SUMMALY..... eee cence eee e nett tenet eeenee A- 3
Hazelnuts.........ee eee Beene rene eee eee were e wren n eee A-21 B- 9
Papayas..... wee easeeee eee e were neee cen eceneeee waeeee A-21 B- 9
PEANUES. 1. eee eee eee eee eee eee ener Pete e ee eee A-15 B- 6
PotatoeS.... see eeeeeee eee eee e eens eee eee e ee eee seas A-13 B- 5
Potatoes, Varieties Grown........... settee eens bees A-28
Reliability Statement............... settee eeee bees B-10
Rice. sees . sees sae A-12 B- 5
Sorghum for Grain.. .. . seeeeee A-11 B- 5
Soybeans for Beans. seeeeee seeeeeeeeee bees A-14 B- 6
Soybeans, Row Spacing..........+.+6- pence rec eene steeee A-25
SugarbeetS.........000e wcrc cc cesnae wcrc cen ecece sees A-20 B-
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed.......-.. eee eee eee teens A-20 B- 8
TOBACCO. eee ee eee ee nee A-17 B- 8
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1997 B-12 NASS, USDA


Fall Potatoes: Percent of Varieties Planted

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts potato objective yield
surveys in 7 States, accounting for 81 percent of U. §. fall production. All
producing areas of each State are sampled in proportion to planted acreage.
Variety data shown below are intended to provide information but are not
designated as official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board.

Fall Potatoes: Percent of Major Varieties Planted,
Selected States, 1997 Crop

State Pet of State Pet of State : Pet of
and : Planted :: and : Planted : and : Planted
Varieties Acres Varieties Acres z

co i/ Yukon Gold : 1.0 :

R Nugget R Norkotah : 0.9 R Burbank 3 27.2
R Norkotah : R Norkotah : 24.9
Centennial R ND Snowden 3 14.0
Sangre R Burbank Goldrush : 10.4

Norland Norland + 9.7

ID Shepody Superior : 4.4
R Burbank Frito-Lay Atlantic : 4.0
Shepody 2 Snowden Ranger R Hf 1.5
R Norkotah La Soda La Soda : 0.9
Ranger R Goldrush 3

Nor Valley US (8 States) :

ME Norchip R Burbank 3 50.5
R Burbank : Pontiac R Norkotah : 12.0
Superior R Norkotah Shepody 3 8.1
Shepody La Rouge Ranger R 3 4.0
Frito-Lay Kanona Norland 3 3.5
Norwis Sangre R Nugget : 2.9
Atlantic Viking Snowden 3 2.1
Ontario Frito-Lay : 1.9
R Norkotah OR Goldrush 2 1.7
Katahdin R Norkotah Superior : 1.3
Snowden R Burbank Centennial R: 0.9
Goldrush Shepody Atlantic 2 0.9
Chieftain : Atlantic La Soda : 0.8

Snowden Nor Valley : 0.6

MN Ranger R All Oth Rus : 0.6
R Burbank Frito-Lay Norchip : 0.5
Shepody Pontiac : 0.5
Norland Sangre : 0.5
Goldrush R Burbank Norwis : 0.4
Pontiac R Norkotah Ontario t 0.4
Itasca : Ranger R La Rouge 2 0.2
Frito-Lay Shepody Katahdin : 0.2
Nor Valley All Oth Rus Kanona 0.2

1/ Colorado data are from a Potato Variety Survey, which covered 43 percent of
the planted acreage.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-28 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted : Area Harvested 1/

1996 1997 1996 1997

1,000 Acres

Corn H 79,487 80,227 73,147 74,049

Sorghum : 13,188 10,268 11,901 9,512
Rice 2 2,819 3,065 2,799 3,037
Soybeans 3 64,205 70,850 63,409 69,816
Peanuts : 1,401.5 1,404.0 1,380.0 1,384.5
All Cotton : 14,633.5 13,905.0 12,868.1 13,436.5
Upland :  14,375.5 13,655.0 12,612.2 13,187.5
Amer-Pima 3 258.0 250.0 255.9 249.0
Potatoes :
Fall : 1,269.9 1,192.8 1,246.7 1,161.3
Total 1,455.8 1,365.0 1,426.0 1,328.8
Tobacco 732.7 795.3
Sugarbeets 1,368.4 1,464.8 1,323.3 1,430.4
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed 888.9 914.5

i/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

Hectares

corn : 32,167,590 32,467,060 29,601,860 29,966,890
Sorghum : 5,337,050 4,155,360 4,816,220 3,849,410
Rice : 2,140,820 1,240,370 1,132,730 1,229,040
Soybeans : 25,983,120 28,672,290 25,660,990 28,253,840
Peanuts : 567,170 568,180 558,470 560,290
All Cotton : 5,922,030 5,627,210 5,207,590 5,437,620
Upland : 5,817,620 5,526,040 5,104,030 5,336,850
Amer-Pima : 104,410 101,170 103,560 100,770
Potatoes :
Fall : 513,920 482,710 504,530 469,970
Total : 589,150 552,400 577,090 537,750
Tobacco : 296,510 321,830

Sugarbeets : 553,780 592,790 535,530 578,870
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed Fy

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-4 NASS, USDA


Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997 1/

Area Harvested : Yield : Production

- 1,000 Acres --

-- 1,000 Pounds --

AL 191.0 189.0 2,355 2,000 2,000 449,805 378,000
FL 82.0 82.0 2,880 2,950 2,950 236,160 241,900
GA 533.0 518.0 2,690 2,600 2,600 1,433,770 1,346,800
NM 16.5 17.5 2,300 2,450 2,450 37,950 42,875
NC 125.0 121.0 2,940 2,650 2,600 367,500 314,600
OK 81.0 78.0 2,410 2,500 2,300 195,210 179,400
sc 10.5 10.0 3,100 3,000 3,000 32,550 30,000
TX 265.0 295.0 2,600 2,600 2,600 689,000 767,000
VA 76.0 74.0 2,885 2,600 2,700 219,260 199,800
US 1,380.0 1,384.5 2,653 2,539 2,528 3,661,205 3,500,375

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1995-96
and Forecasted November 1, 1997

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-15 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: . Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

- 1,000 Pounds

cT : 2,260 2,250 1,606 3,524 3,795 3,613
FL t 7,500 8,200 2,570 17,676 20,100 21,074
GA : 46,000 44,000 2,030 84,000 113,620 89,320
IN H 7,600 8,900 2,150 13,601 14,972 19,135
KY : 195,700 221,100 1,934 328,581 395,542 427,715
MD : 8,000 8,000 1,500 11,475 10,000 12,000
MA : 800 1,110 1,659 918 1,212 1,842
MO 1/ : 2,700 3,100 2,050 5,468 6,021 6,355
NC : 287,800 314,000 2,190 484,599 585,542 687,700
OH 3 8,000 9,500 2,000 15,015 12,640 19,000
PA 3 7,800 7,600 2,021 15,685 15,464 15,360
sc > 51,000 54,000 2,250 105,000 117,810 121,500
TN : 54,560 57,670 1,803 92,907 109,888 103,970
VA : 48,370 51,270 2,105 81,269 103,543 107,898
wy l/ : 1,700 1,800 1,800 2,600 2,040 3,240
WI : 2,900 2,750 2,130 6,220 5,145 5,858

732,690 795,250 2,071 2,069 1,268,538 1,517,334 1,645,580

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-17 NASS, USDA



Crop Summary: Utilized Production, United States, 1995-96,
1996-97, and Forecasted 1997-98

Utilized Production

October i,
1997 1/
Crop Year 2/ 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98
: 1,000 Tons
Citrus Fruits :
Oranges : 11,427 12,827 14,309
Grapefruit : 2,718 2,888 2,824
Lemons : 992 859 935
Tangerines : 349 418 370
Temples (FL) 3 97 108 104
Tangelos (FL) 2 110 178 149
K-Early Citrus (FL) : 7 7 6
z Metric Tons
Oranges : 10,366,400 11,636,460 12,980,910
Grapefruit : 2,465,730 2,619,950 2,561,890
Lemons 3 899,930 779,270 848,220
Tangerines z 316,610 379,200 335,660
Temples (FL) z 88,000 97,980 94,350
Tangelos (FL) : 99,790 161,480 135,170
K-Early Citrus (FL) 6,350 6,350 5,440
1/ Citrus production is no longer forecasted in November. October 1 forecasts

repeated. The next citrus forecast will be in December 1997.
2/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-3 NASS, USDA



Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between October 24 and November 4 to gather information on
expected yield as of November 1. The objective yield surveys for corn,
soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually
account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots
were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected
plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of
plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to
forecast the number of ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are
used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological
yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net
yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is
harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field,
another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 11,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
November 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The November 1 production forecast will not be revised;

instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a
balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports,
processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the November 1

production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error", a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
November 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1977-1996 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average
becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 2.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the current production forecast of 9.36 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 2.3 percent or approximately 215 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 4.0 percent or approximately 374 million bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the November 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-10 NASS, USDA


Measured Row Spacing Of Soybeans: Percentage Distribution And
Average Width For Selected States, 1993-97 1/

Row Width Groups (Inches)

poocn eco -------- ++ -------------------------------- :Average
10.0 & 1o.1-  : 18.6- +: 28.6- 34.6 & : Row
Less 2/ 18.5 7 28.5 2 34.5 Greater :Width 2/

Percent of Plots Inches

AR 1993: 125 24.2 12.5 23.8 25.8 13.7 23.8
1994: 127 30.7 10.8 16.7 14.7 27.1 23.9
1995: 119 36.2 10.5 29.0 15.5 8.8 19.7
1996: 124 35.4 6.5 19.0 26.2 12.9 21.6
1997: 126 42.9 13.5 19.4 17.5 6.7 18.0

IL 1993: 179 38.0 6.7 3.9 40.8 10.6 21.2
1994; 185 45.6 11.4 3.0 34.6 5.4 18.4
1995: 208 57.1 10.1 2.9 26.0 3.9 16.0
1996: 202 53.2 15.2 2.2 25.5 3.9 16.0
1997; 211 55.2 18.5 3.1 21.1 2.1 15.1

IN 1993: 149 56.0 13.4 4.0 23.2 3.4 15.6
1994: 149 58.0 13.1 1.7 23.8 3.4 15.5
1995: 148 68.0 10.2 3.4 17.0 1.4 13.3
1996: 147 69.4 11.2 2.1 14.6 2.7 13.0
1997: 148 59.3 15.6 4.8 14.9 5.4 14.4

IA 1993: 208 23.2 6.3 5.3 50.0 15.2 26.3
1994: 207 28.3 9.9 6.0 44.2 11.6 24.2
1995: 206 28.2 10.5 5.6 40.4 15.3 24.6
1996: 216 28.3 12.3 5.1 42.2 12.1 24.4
1997: 211 25.1 19.2 4.0 42.0 9.7 22.3

MN 1993: 103 29.6 14.6 i.9 49.0 4.9 21.3
1994: 101 36.2 12.4 6.9 35.6 8.9 20.0
1995: 98 25.0 14.3 9.7 46.4 4.6 21.6
1996: 101 30.8 11.9 10.5 38.8 8.0 21.0
1997: 97 27.8 28.9 5.1 36.1 2.1 18.8

MO 1993: 114 41.9 7.9 4.8 23.8 21.6 22.1
i994: 150 46.4 15.0 6.0 23.3 9.3 18.0
1995: 132 53.1 14.0 5.7 22.3 4.9 16.4
1996: 125 48.4 19.2 4.4 20.4 7.6 16.7
1997: 118 47.3 30.2 5.0 11.7 5.9 15.4

NE 71 18.3 6.3 +7 44.4 30.3 28.5
74 21.6 6.8 2.7 35.8 33.1 27.8

87 23.6 8.6 5.2 37.9 24.7 25.2

74 21.0 11.5 4.7 40.5 22.3 25.3

74 26.3 13.5 4.1 34.5 21.6 23.6

OH 127 63.8 16.9 1.6 16.2 1.6 13.3
124 66.5 14.6 3.2 11.7 4.0 12.9

124 68.0 21.5 1.6 6.9 2.0 11.4

121 69.5 23.5 1.2 5.8 .0 10.6

122 71.3 17.6 2.9 7.4 8 11.4

1/ Based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective yield
samples.

2/ Broadcast soybeans included as 10.0 inches and less but excluded in com-
putation of average width.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-26 NASS, USDA


All cotton production is forecast at 18.8 million bales, up 2 percent from
October but down less than 1 percent from 1996. This is the fourth largest crop
on record. Yield is expected to average 673 pounds per acre, down

34 pounds from last year. Production in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi
increased 370,000 bales from the previous forecast. Open weather prevailed most
of the month, allowing bolls to finish opening in the Delta. Georgia’s
production was lowered 50,000 bales from October. Heavy rains in the
southeastern States during late October delayed harvest.

= vm —
This report was approved on November 10, 1997.
\
Secretary 0: Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Dan Glickman Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1997 A-2 NASS, USDA


Ten Western States produced 289 million cwt in 1997, down 7 percent from last
year but 4 percent above two years ago. Acreage harvested, at 704,400 acres,
was off 7 percent, while the average yield of 411 cwt per acre was down 3 cwt
from a year ago. Harvest started late as processors worked to clean up potatoes
from the huge 1996 crop. Weather was generally good, and digging finished up
early. Production is down in all of the larger Western States primarily because
of acreage cuts. Production in Idaho is down 5 percent from last year,
Washington is off 7 percent, and Colorado and Oregon both dropped 13 percent.
Idaho and Washington are expecting record high yields. California's production
is down 9 percent, Nevada slipped 4 percent, Utah dropped 22 percent, and
Wyoming fell 38 percent. Montana and New Mexico were the only Western States
with larger crops than last year.

Soybeans: Acreage to be harvested is forecast at 69.8 million acres, unchanged
from last month and 10 percent above last year. As of the week ending

November 2, the soybean harvest was nearing completion across the Corn Belt.
Snow storms and melting snow slowed harvest activities later in the week.
Harvest activity in the Southeast and Atlantic states was hampered by heavy
rainfall. In the Major producing states, harvest activity progressed well ahead
of last year. As of November 2, 89 percent of the soybean crop was harvested,

9 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the five year average.

In Minnesota and Iowa, harvest was virtually complete as of November 2.
Minnesota farmers completed harvest about the same as last year but ahead of the
five-year average. In Iowa, harvest was completed ahead of last year and the
five-year average.

The harvest in Indiana and Ohio was running well ahead of last year’s late
maturing crop. Indiana farmers harvested 96 percent of the crop by November 2,
well ahead of last year and the five-year average. In Ohio, 95 percent of the
harvest was complete.

The Missouri harvest was 82 percent complete by November 2, compared to

69 percent last year and a five-year average of 78 percent. The harvest in
Nebraska at 92 percent complete, lagged well behind last year and the five-year
average.

In the Southeast, the harvest lagged behind last year in North Carolina,
Georgia, and South Carolina. The harvest progressed ahead of last year in other
southeastern states.

The November 1 Objective Yield Survey indicated pod counts above the 1996 final
in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, and Ohio. The pod count in Arkansas
is at a record high. Indicated pod counts from the survey are below the 1996
final for Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.50 billion pounds, down slightly from the

October i forecast and down 4 percent from last year. Harvested area,
at 1.38 million acres, is 4,500 acres above 1996. Yields are expected to
average 2,528 pounds per acre, down 11 pounds from last month and 125 pounds
below 1996.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.00 billion pounds, unchanged from October 1 but
7 percent below the 1996 crop. The yield for the 4-State area is expected to
average 2,499 pounds per acre, 137 pounds below last year. Open weather
prevailed for most of October but heavy rains during the last week slowed
harvest activity. In early November, harvest neared completion for most States
in this region, with Alabama at 96 percent harvested and Georgia at 98 percent.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-6 NASS, USDA


USDA Announces Data Users Meeting
Embassy Suites (near KCI Airport)
Kansas City, Missouri
January 7, 1998

The National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing
an open forum for Data Users. The purpose will be to provide
updates on pending changes in the USDA statistical and
information programs including the status of the 1997 Census of
Agriculture, and to seek comments and input from data users.
Other agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural

Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign
Agricultural Service, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

For registration details
NASS home page: http://www.usda.gov/nass/
Bob Milton (NASS) at (202) 720-3570
rmilton@nass.usda.gov

USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum ‘98
February 23 and 24, 1998
Washington, D.C.
Presented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture

Survey the New Frontiers.

Survey the frontiers of agriculture at USDA's seventy~fourth
outlook forum. Catch the latest commodity prospects for 1998
and beyond and receive new long-term projections to the year
2007. Hear noted experts and farm leaders tackle front line
issues: managing risk, selling bio-engineered products,
ensuring food safety, marketing organic foods, honing export
strategies, and more.

Act Now To Attend. For program and registration details check the Forum home page, call
(202) 720-3050, or dial (202) 694-5700 from your fax machine handset and retrieve document
66666. Call (202) 401-9421 to register.

Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm
e-mail: agforum@oce.usda.gov

‘ U.S, GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1997 433-605/60043

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-15 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER INS-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

October 25, 1997
UPDATED WEEKLY
SUGHILY 4°
DRY
ey y i
toy y 4
27 FAVORABLY 2 |
PACRASLY
MOST °
§ imamnty
MOST
SLIGHTLY SLIGHILY, (asaonuy |
DRY PRY
FAVORABLY :
MOIST. Facey :

aeetnts 2 ‘SLIGHTLY

ABNORMALLY: ) fon I
a, DRY
~ ABNORMALLY .
MIST .
pasovey
DRY
my,

INOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY | faasec on prejrinery reports

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet speils which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 B-1 NASS, USDA



Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group,
State, and United States, 1995~97

Seasonal Group Area Harvested

and

: - 1,000 Acres ~ - 1,000 Cwr -
Winter 1/ : 14.5 15.4 226 203 2,473 3,273 3,124
Spring 1/ 3 90.0 86.1 249 250 20,193 22,417 21,498
Summer 1/ : 74.8 66.0 261 262 17,931 19,507 17,271
Fall 3
CA : 11.5 10.5 400 400 5,330 4,600 4,200
co : 77.8 76.9 375 330 23,808 29,175 25,377
ID : 413.0 388.0 346 349 132,657 142,800 135,430
10 SWCo : 28.0 27.0 425 470 11,340 11,900 12,690
Other ID : 385.0 361.0 340 340 121,317 130,900 122,740
IN H 5.2 4.9 260 270 1,196 1,352 1,323
ME : 77.0 71.0 275 270 17,160 21,175 19,170
MA : 2.6 2.7 260 250 858 676 675
MI : 46.0 48.5 300 300 16,350 13,800 14,550
MN : 82.0 75.0 300 280 20,790 24,600 21,000
MT : 10.2 10.4 315 320 2,940 3,213 3,328
NE H 12.4 19.3 355 395 3,680 4,402 7,624
NV : 7.9 7.2 400 420 2,774 3,160 3,024
NM : 6.4 6.3 400 420 2,394 2,560 2,646
NY 3 28.5 29.5 280 290 7,695 7,980 8,555
ND : 131.0 105.0 220 200 25,410 28,820 21,000
OH : S.1 5.0 250 235 1,404 1,275 1,175
OR : 61.0 53.5 494 490 24,788 30,124 26,205
Malheur : 13.3 10.9 400 450 4,992 5,320 4,905
Other OR: 47.7 42.6 520 500 19,796 24,804 21,300
PA : 16.5 14.5 255 220 4,080 4,208 3,190
RI : 0.8 0.8 240 260 243 192 208
sD 4.8 4.2 280 250 988 1,344 1,050
UT : 4.2 3.1 280 295 1,224 1,176 915
WA : 161.0 148.0 590 595 80,850 94,990 88,060
wr : 81.0 76.5 390 375 26,000 31,590 28,688
wy H 0.8 0.5 280 280 390 224 140
Total : 1,246.7 1,161.3 364 360 403,009 453,436 417,533
US : 1,426.0 1,328.8 350 346 443,606 498,633 459,426

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-13 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 1996 and Forecasted November 1, 1997

Area Harvested Production 1/

-- 1,000 Acres -- ’ Bales 2/
Upland :
AL : 516.0 420.0 734 526 571 789.0 500.0
AZ : 314.0 329.0 1,189 1,138 1,196 778.0 820.0
AR : 990.0 930.0 793 769 846 1,636.0 1,640.0
CA Hy 995.0 875.0 1,153 1,207 1,207 2,390.0 2,200.0
FL 3/ : 98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0
GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 TAT 702 686 2,079.0 2,050.0
KS 3/ : 4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 13.5
LA 3 885.0 625.0 697 653 730 1,286.0 950.0
MS : 1,100.0 960.0 819 820 880 1,876.0 1,760.0
MO 3 385.0 365.0 737 684 684 591.0 520.0
NM 8 55.0 66.0 733 698 669 84.0 92.0
Nc : 710.0 675.0 677 555 569 1,002.0 800.0
OK 2 210.0 210.0 306 503 503 134.0 220.0
sc 3 282.0 285.0 774 691 674 455.0 400.0
TN : 530.0 500.0 611 605 634 675.0 660.0
TX : 4,100.0 5,300.0 509 489 489 4,345.0 5,400.0
VA 3/ 3 102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0
US : 12,612.2 13,187.5 701 650 666 18,413.5 18,299.5
Amer-Pima :
AZ : 41.9 20.0 852 840 840 74.4 35.0
CA : 164.0 184.0 1,098 1,148 1,148 375.0 440.0
NM 2 14.0 13.0 651 665 628 19.0 17.0
TX : 36.0 32.0 801 795 840 60.1 56.0
US 3 255.9 249.0 991 1,053 1,056 528.5 548.0
All :
AL : 516.0 420.0 734 526 571 789.0 500.0
AZ 3 355.9 349.0 1,150 1,121 1,176 852.4 855.0
AR : 990.0 930.0 793 769 846 1,636.0 1,640.0
cA : 1,159.0 1,059.0 1,145 1,197 1,197 2,765.0 2,640.0
FL 3/ : 98.2 100.0 637 720 720 130.4 150.0
GA : 1,336.0 1,435.0 747 702 686 2,079.0 2,050.0
KS 3/ : 4.0 13.5 492 480 480 4.1 13.5
LA 3 885.0 625.0 697 653 730 1,286.0 950.0
MS : 2,100.0 960.0 819 820 880 1,876.0 1,760.0
MO : 385.0 365.0 737 684 684 591.0 520.0
NM : 69.0 79.0 717 693 662 103.0 109.0
Nc 710.0 675.0 677 555 569 1,002.0 800.0
OK 210.0 210.0 306 503 503 134.0 220.0
sc 282.0 285.0 774 691 674 455.0 400.0
TN 530.0 500.0 611 605 634 675.0 660.0
TX 4,136.0 5,332.0 511 491 491 4,405.1 5,456.0
VA 3/ 102.0 99.0 748 601 601 159.0 124.0
US 12,868.1 13,436.5 707 658 673 18,942.0 18,847.5

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/  480-1lb net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1997 A-16 NASS, USDA