RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS
:ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR 10-YEAR RECORD OF
ween anne nn------5---- DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
: 290% CONFIDENCE AND FINAL ESTIMATE
CROP AND : : LEVEL 9p pene-ne-----e nnn n= - 22 ------ eee eee
UNIT IPERCENT: ~--=~===---~ QUANTITY

:PERCENT: QUANT

FEED GRAINS 1/ MT 2.8 4.8 10 1 14 8 2
CORN FOR GRAIN BU 3.8 6.6 471 33 538 7 3
SORGHUM FOR :

GRAIN BU : 4.4 7.6 57 2 60 7 3
RICE CWT: 2.7 4.7 6 0 6 4 6
SOYBEANS FOR

BEANS BU : 3.6 6.3 124 10 120 5 5
COTTON BALE 2/ : 4.8 8.4 1,120 V7 1,073 5 5

1/ CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1977-87 (1977=100)

PRODUCTION

: AND : FOOD
: FORAGE : GRAINS :

1977 : 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1978 : 102 108 106 93 101 76 106 105
1979 2 113 116 108 108 94 102 80 129
1980 : 101 97 98 121 97 79 93 99
1981 2117 121 106 144 107 109 108 114
1982 2:17 122 109 138 96 85 104 121
1983 : 88 67 100 W 93 55 75 91
1984 211 116 107 129 95 91 90 106
1985 7117 134 106 121 97 93 79 117
1986 : 108 123 106 106 106 68 61 110
1987 : 106 106 105 106 114 93 65 109

1/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS
OF CROPS SHOWN.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-20 NASS, USDA



SEPTEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

Early in the month, a heat wave in the West contributed to the spread of
forest fires in California, Oregon, and Nevada. Generally, temperatures were
above normal in the West, the northern Great Plains, the Ohio Valley, along
the Atlantic seaboard, and along most of the Gulf coast. Above-normal rainfall
for the month covered most regions from the Great Lakes eastward to New England
and southward to Florida. Other areas of above-normal precipitation were in
Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Late in the month, southern California and
southern Arizona experienced above-normal thunderstorm activity. (Prepared by
NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility.)

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

Winter wheat seeding got off to an early start the latter part of August.
By September 27, 50 percent of the acreage was seeded, 11 points ahead of
normal. Dryness hampered seeding and germination in some Corn Belt States.

Nebraska's wheat was 90 percent seeded, compared with 78 percent in 1986
and 81 percent average. Fifty-five percent of the acreage was emerged, 7
points behind 1986 but 5 points above normal.

In Oklahoma, winter wheat seeding reached 45 percent completion, 20 points
above normal. At 20 percent completion, emergence was 15 points above
normal. Heavy rains caused some reseeding.

Kansas wheat producers had sown 55 percent of their acreage compared with
60 percent in 1986 and 40 percent normally. Emergence had reached 20 percent
completion. Weather conditions were ideal for seeding and emergence during
the month,

SEPTEMBER ROW CROP DEVELOPMENT

Below-normal temperatures slowed crop development in the eastern half of
the Nation early in September. As temperatures returned to above-normal
levels, crops continued their rapid pace to maturity, except in the Great
Plains, where below-normal temperatures lingered until around midmonth. Rain
the second week in the Southeast and the third week in the Corn Belt and Delta
provided much needed moisture for late planted soybeans.

Corn was 93 percent mature by September 27, compared with 80 percent in
1986 and the 78 percent average. Maturity was finished, or near completion,
jn all States except Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Harvest
reached 27 percent completion, 15 points above normal and 14 points above
1986. Georgia's harvest was 90 percent finished, just slightly ahead of
normal. Harvest reached the half-way mark in both Missouri and Illinois, 20
and 37 points ahead of normal, respectively. Corn harvest was more than half
finished in Kentucky and Texas and was approaching the half-way point in
Kansas and North Carolina. Harvest was ahead of normal in all major producing
States, except North Carolina.

By the end of September, seventy-five percent of the soybean acreage had
reached the leaf dropping stage, 9 points ahead of 1986 and 13 points ahead of
normal. Soybeans were just beginning to drop leaves in the Carolinas but were
nearing completion in the Corn Belt. Soybean harvest was 20 percent finished,
compared with 8 percent in 1986 and 9 percent average. In Illinois and
Indiana, harvest neared the half-way mark, 28 and 35 points ahead of normal,
respectively. Harvest was 24 percent finished in Minnesota and 34 percent
finished in Ohio. Harvest had not begun in North Carotina, South Carolina,
and Tennessee.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-4 NASS, USDA



PECANS

. PRODUCTION
CROP Powe enone eee eee ee ee ee eee

AND UTILIZED

1,000 POUNDS

: 9,600 9,600 18,750
ARK 3 43000 900 15380
FLA : 1,600 3,100 3,100
GA : 74,000 100,000 105,000
LA : 2,000 4,000 3,000
MISS : 35500 4,500 5,500
N MEX : 29,000 27,000 29,000
NC 2/ 400 1,800 13400
OKLA 1,500 1,500 2,000
sc 900 3,250 4,000
TEX 29,000 27,000 20,000

s 152,500 182,650 193,130

NATIVE & SEEDLING
ALA 6,400 6,400 6,250
ARK 700 300 620
FLA 1,200 2,400 2,400
GA 95000 20,000 20,000
LA 135000 26,000 17,000
MISS 3,000 3,000 35500
NC 2 600 2,200 71,600
OKLA 8,500 13,500 135000
SC 500 3,250 3,500
TEX 49,000 13,000 30,000
us 91,900 90,050 97,870

PECANS
ALA 16,000 16,000 25,000
ARK ; 1} ;
FLA 2,800 55500 55500
GA > 83,000 120,000 125,000
LA : 15,000 30;000 20,000
MISS : 6,500 7,500 95000
N MEX 29,000 27,000 29,000
NC 2/ 1,000 43000 33000
OKLA 10,000 15,000 15,000
sc 1,400 6,500 7,500
TEX 78,000 40,000 50,000
us 244,400 272,700 291,000

1/  BUDDED,GRAFTED,OR TOPWORKED VARIETIES.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PAPAYAS ~ HAWALT

AREA FRESH PRODUCTION

MONTH: TOTAL IN CROP HARVESTED

1986 =: (1987

1,000 POUNDS

AUG : 3,975 3,940 2,250 2,435 3,425 4,740

SEP : 3,970 4,000 2,340 2,405 3,120 4,880

OcT : 4,050 2,375 5,805 5,400
NOV : 4,025 2,265 4,155 6,000
DEC : 3,930 2,270 4,440 6,100
SAN 3 3,905 2,420 4,400 5,800
CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-SEP 35,700 38,535

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-37 NASS, USDA


Producers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina,
and South Carolina) expect to harvest 970 thousand bales, up 36 percent from
last year's production and up 4 percent from September 1. Harvest conditions
were near ideal during the month in all States except South Carolina where a
protonged rainy period in mid-September caused damage to the crop.

Bureau of the Census reports 3,196,950 running bales ginned prior to
October 1 compared with 2,406,969 to the same date last year and 2,430,799
bales in 1985.

COTTONSEED: Production for 1987, based on a three year average lint-seed

ratio, is forecast at 5.24 million tons (4.76 million metric
tons), 38 percent above the 1986 production of 3.80 million tons (3.45 million
metric tons).

ALL HAY: Production of all hay is forecast at 154 million tons (139 million

metric tons). This is 2 percent more than expected August 1 but 1
percent less than the 1986 production. Total area expected to be harvested
for hay of 60.2 million acres (24.4 million hectares) is down 3 percent from a
year ago. Yields are expected to average 2.55 tons per acre compared with
2.49 tons per acre last year.

The largest increase in production from a year ago is in Wisconsin--2.12
million tons. The largest decrease is in South Dakota~-2.00 million tons.

ALFALFA HAY: The production forecast of 88.4 million tons (80.2 million metric
tons) is 3 percent above the quantity expected August 1 but 3
percent below the 1986 total. Reduced acreage from last year is being
partially offset by higher yields. Area for harvest, at 25.5 million acres
(10.3 million hectares), is down 5 percent from a year ago. Average yield,
forecast at 3.47 tons per acre, is up 0.05 of a ton from the 1986 yield.

ALL OTHER HAY: Production of all other hay is forecast at 65.4 million tons

(59.3 million metric tons), up 1 percent from the expectations
of August 1 and 2 percent more than the 1986 output. Area for harvest, at
34.7 million acres (14.0 million hectares), is off 2 percent from 1986. Yield
is expected to average 1.88 tons per acre, up 0.08 of a ton from the previous
year.

ORY EDIBLE BEANS: Generally favorable fall weather continues to aid dry bean

harvest. Production is forecast at 25.2 million cwt (1.14
million metric tons), up 10 percent from last year and 14 percent above 2
years ago. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.69 million acres (682 thousand
hectares), up 13 percent from last year and 14 percent above 1985. The
average yield is calculated at 1496 pounds per acre, down 2 percent from last
year but virtually the same as two years ago.

Nebraska farmers continue to be plagued by hail damage. An additional 5
thousand acres were destroyed by storms on September 4th, bringing the total
to 19 thousand acres destroyed. Further damage was also inflicted on fields
still expected to be harvested.

Harvest is active jin all growing areas. Field work is well ahead of
normal in North Dakota and Minnesota. On the other hand, hail storms have
slowed progress in Nebraska, Wyoming, and Colorado. Michigan crop progress
was slowed when hot summer weather blasted blossoms and delayed the setting of
pods. By October 1, maturity was about 15 percent behind schedule and 15
percent of the crop had been harvested. New York harvest is also behind
schedule. In California, weather conditions have been favorable and most
growers expect to be finished this month.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-9 NASS, USDA



WINTER WHEAT: ACREAGE

AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED

1,000 ACRES

ALA : 500 340 250 400 220 170
ARIZ: 67 49 45 66 48 44
ARK : 650 885 930 570 815 840
CALIF: 800 650 530 750 600 480
COLO =: 3,700 3,300 3,100 3,450 2,900 2,500
DEL : 45 40 50 43 34 48
FLA : 160 120 80 130 100 60
GA : 950 640 550 825 550 460
IDAHO : 1,000 950 860 870 850 800
ILL : 850 1,300 1,100 750 820 950
IND : 770 900 750 700 700 600
IOWA: 120 90 90 112 60 30
KANS : 12,400 11,500 10,700 11,400 10,200 9,900
KY : 430 440 500 310 270 330
LA : 250 240 240 210 210 170
MD : 140 160 175 133 145 165
MICH: 770 750 450 750 680 400
MINN =: 350 180 100 280 130 90
MISS: 380 250 400 300 200 350
MO : 1,500 1,050 900 1,280 570 770
MONT : 2,460 2,150 2,300 1,400 2,000 2,200
NEBR : 2,600 2,300 2,200 2,300 2,000 1,950
NEV : 10 10 8 9 9 7
NJ : 45 40 30 37 30 27
N MEX: 730 740 660 570 460 340
NY : 155 165 90 145 155 80
NC : 800 525 490 760 460 440
N DAK: 750 520 200 450 480 185
OHIO. =: ~—«*1,000 1,150 850 950 1,050 800
OKLA =: ~— 7,800 7,400 7,200 5,500 5,200 4,800
OREG : 1,030 970 780 960 930 750
PA : 220 230 190 210 220 185
SC : 460 325 290 430 300 275
S DAK: 1,850 1,900 1,700 1,520 1,800 1,620
TENN: 340 430 440 250 325 350
TEX : 8,100 8,100 6,800 5,850 4,800 3,600
UTAH: 230 235 180 220 225 165
VA : 340 220 275 285 170 215
WASH =: ~— 2,550 2,250 1,900 2,400 2,100 1,825
WVA 10 nN 13 8 9 "
WIS : 150 140 85 140 130 60

wyo 3 290 320 300 230 250 250

57,752 53,965 48,781 47,953 43,205 39,292

1/ AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-14 NASS, USDA



LEMONS: The Arizona-California lemon crop (tree crop available for harvest)

totals 23.7 million boxes (817 thousand metric tons), 17 percent
below last season but 29 percent above the small crop utilized in 1985-86.
California expects a crop of 18.5 million boxes, 14 percent lower than Tast
season. The Arizona crop is forecast at 5.20 million boxes, 27 percent less
than 1986-87.

TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop forecast is 4.00 million boxes (163 thou-
sand metric tons), the same as last season but 36 percent above the
1985-86 crop.

TANGERINES: The U.S. all tangerine forecast is 4.20 million boxes (163 thou-

sand metric tons), 20 percent below last season and 6 percent
less than the harvest in 1985-86. This forecast includes all varieties of
tangerines in Florida (Dancy, Robinson, and Honey), as well as production of
California and Arizona tangerines., Per program modification, Florida Honey
tangerines are now included in the State and U.S. totals. Production
estimates shown for previous seasons have been revised for comparison purposes
with the new crop forecasts.

TEMPLES: Florida's temple forecast is 3.40 million boxes (139 thousand metric
tons), the same as last season's production but 15 percent higher
than 1985-86.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Florida's citrus groves were influenced during September by

very hot and occasionally dry weather. Most grove caretakers
irrigated for a week or so to help prevent wilt during the very warm after-
noons. New growth has slowed. New crop fruit is in very good condition.
Testing of white and colored grapefruit continued throughout September;
however, only the white was shipped in September~-on the 29th and 30th. Some
Hamlins and K-early citrus fruit were also packed and shipped during the
week, Caretakers were very active in September, completing cleanup sprays for
fruit grown for the fresh trade. Most groves are being cultivated to
eliminate the competition for available moisture.

TEXAS CITRUS: Harvest of early Texas oranges began in late September. Early
yields and quality are good. All citrus in the Rio Grande
Valley is showing good sizing as temperatures cooled somewhat in September.
Early spring rains and moderate winter temperatures produced a good set for
this season's crop. Appearance of most fruit is also good. Producers
experienced little insect problems and bird damage has been minimal.

CALIFORNIA FRUITS AND NUTS: The apple harvest continued into September, with
Golden Delicious, Red Delicious, and Granny Smith
varieties being packed throughout the Central Valley. The Hass avocado crop
was harvested with Tulare County growers reporting excellent quality and
sizes. The soft date harvest took place in Coachella Valley. Hot weather
intensified harvests of both wine grapes and table grapes. Virtually all
raisin grapes were tray-dried and picked-up by the end of the month. The last
of the peach, pear, nectarine, plum, and prune crops were packed. Pomegranate
and persimmon harvests came into full swing. Pruning was done in tree fruit
orchards as harvesting was completed. Navel oranges in Tulare County showed
above-normal sizes due to the light crop. Valencia oranges, lemons, and
summer grapefruit were picked and packed during the month. Harvesting of
olives began at month's end. Almond and walnut harvests continued with large
crop sizes reported for both. Harvesting of pistachio nuts began in early
September. This is a low production year in the alternate-bearing cycle.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-15 NASS, USDA



SUNFLOWER

: ND IND
TYPES 1986 1/ 986 1/: 1987 : 1985 1986 1/ : 1987
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
126 79 1,500 172,480 189,000
1,195 1,090 1,350 1,965,600 1,613,250
S_DAK 367 287 1,380 606,340 506,460
TEX 28 W 1,300 123,500 36,400
US 1,716 1,466 1,367 2,867,920 2,345,110
NON-OIL
MINN 24 9 1,550 25,300 37,200
N DAK 212 195 1,370 256,200 290,440
S_DAK 3 3 1,000 3,600 3,000
TEX 3
us 239 210 1,383 285,100 330,640
ALL
MINN 150 88 1,508 1,450 197,780 226,200 127,600
N DAK 1,407 1,285 1,953 1,400 2,221,800 1,903,690 1,799,000
S_DAK 370 290 1,377. 1,130 609,940 509,460 327,700
TEX 28 14 1,300 1,400 123,500 36,400 19,600
US 1,955 1,677 1,369 1,356 3,153,020 2,675,750 2,273,900

AREA PLANTED, SUNFLOWER 1986 1/

1,000 ACRES

MINN : 130 25 155

N DAK 7 1,240 220 1,460
S_DAK : 377 3 380
TEX 30 30

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

ALA 2,260 2,300 590,000 494,940 501,400
FLA 2,680 2,600 216,000 233,160 228,800
GA 2,455 2,650 1,921,320 1,632,575 1,643,000
N MEX 2/ 2,260 2,600 31,992 28,700 33,800
NC 3,080 2,650 451,990 440,440 392,200
OKLA 2,050 2,300 170,980 184,500 213,900
sc 2,220 2,700 34,200 25,530 37,800
TEX 1,750 1,800 422,625 385,000 423,000
VA 3,100 2,550 283,680 275,900 224,400
us 2,407 2,438 4,122,787 3,700,745 3,698,300

1/ ESTIMATES COMPRISED OF QUOTA AND NON-QUOTA PEANUTS.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-24 NASS, USDA



Sixty-four percent of the cotton acreage had reached the boll opening
stage compared with 58 percent in 1986 and 63 percent normally. Bolls opening
Tagged considerably behind normal in New Mexico and Oklahoma during most of
September. By September 27, cotton harvest reached 23 percent completion, 9
points ahead of normal. Harvest was ahead of normal by 23 points or more in
Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. Harvest had not
begun in New Mexico and Oklahoma because of slow development. Warm weather
was needed in Oklahoma and Texas for the crop to reach full maturity.

Sorghum reaching maturity totaled 69 percent of the acreage, compared with
67 percent in 1986 and 58 percent normally. Forty percent of the acreage was
harvested, 6 points above normal. Harvest lagged behind normal in Oklahoma
and Texas. Illinois and South Dakota harvests were progressing 5 times faster
than normal.

Rice was 75 percent harvested compared with 76 percent in 1986 and 59
percent normally. The first crop harvest was finished in Texas and neared
completion in Louisiana.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 7.14 billion
bushels (181 million metric tons), down 13 percent from last
year and virtually unchanged from the September 1 forecast.

The U.S. average yield is forecast at a record high 119.9 bushels per
acre, up 0.6 of a bushel from the previous record set last year.

The crop progress ran ahead of normal the entire season. Excellent
harvesting weather has continued the trend. By October 4, about 40 percent of
the crop was harvested in the 17 major producing States. This compares with
17 percent last year and 19 percent average. A hail storm that crossed Iowa
during mid-September caused minimal damage to an already mature corn crop.

Yields in Minnesota and Missouri increased 5 and 2 bushels, respectively,
from September 1. Ohio's yield dropped 4 bushels. Yield forecasts for
Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa were unchanged from September 1.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION

craeR 1087
STLLION as

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-5 NASS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

CORN FOR GRAIN BU: (119.3 119.9 8,252,834 7,140,505 7,139,255

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN" =: 67.7 7.1 941,634 756,678 746,953
RICE CWT 1/: 5,648 5,471 134,416 126,819 126,819
SOYBEANS FOR :
BEANS 2/ BU: 33.3 34.2 1,940,101 1,956,859 1,968,069
PEANUTS FOR NUTS L8 =: 2,407 2,438 3,700,745 3,901,900 3,698,300
SUNFLOWER 2/ * 13369 1,356 = 2,675,750 2,273,900
ALL COTTON BALE 1 552 640 9,731.1 12,846.4 ° 13,336.4
UPLAND “4 547 637 9,525.2 12,613.9  13,108.9
AMER~PIMA 890 854 205.9 232.5 227.5
COTTONSEED 3,801 5,044 5,242
ALL HAY wo: 2.49 2.55 185,271 3/150, 798 1533717
ALFALFA no 3.42 3.47 915424 3/86, 109 88,367
ALL OTHER " 1.80 1.88 63,847 3/64, 689 65,350
ORY EDIBLE BEANS CHT, Ve 1,532 1,496 22,898 245679 25,210
ORY EDIBLE PEAS =" 1,785 2,102 33196 33385
AUSTRIAN WINTER :
PEAS "V7: 1,429 1,582 450 522
LENTILS "V/23,199 1,263 1,895 1,794
TOBACCO LB: 1,998 2,051 1,162,747 1,231,416 1,234,243
SUGARBEETS TON 21.2 21.9 25,224 27,068 27,343
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED" 38.1 38.5 30,311 31,401 31,859
PASTURE AND
RANGE FEED 4/ PCT : = 83 79
APPLES, COM'L LB: 7,891,000 3/9,690,500 9,614,500
GRAPES TON: 5,225.9 5,083.0 5,096.0
DRIED PRUNES :
(CALIF) TON 99.0 200.0 200.0
PRUNES ANO PLUMS
{EXCL CALIF) . 47.1 53.6 53.6
PECANS LB 272,700 278,100 291,000
FILBERTS TON 5.1 5/18.5 18.5
1986-87 1987-88 1987-88
CITRUS FRUITS 6/
ORANGES 182,225 183,400
LEMONS . 28,600 23,700

1/ YIELD IN POUNDS, 2/ 1986 REVISED. 3/ AUG 1, 1987. 4/ PASTURE AND
RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1976-85 AVERAGE IS 73 PERCENT.
5/  MID-AUGUST FORECAST PUBLISHED IN "FILBERT PRODUCTION" RELEASED AUG 24,
1987. 6/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH
THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

INDICATED INDICATED
1987 1/ 1987 1/

POTATOES

WINTER 2/ 243 214 2,501

SPRING 261 224 173570

SUMMER 220 231 22,913

FALL : 307

TOTAL "> 296
OPS LB: «(1,958 1,788 50,964
PEACHES tBoo: 2,486,600
SHEET CHERRIES TON 189.6
TART CHERRIES L8 363,700
PEARS TON 862.1
APRICOTS * 115.6
NECTARINES (CALIF)  " 190.0
PLUMS (CALIF) . 210.0
OLIVES (CALIF) " 80.0
PISTACHIO NUTS (CALIF )LB 30,000
ALMONDS (CALIF 600,000
WALNUTS (CALIF TON 260.0

17 ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 AAS NASS, USDA


APPLES, COMMERCIAL 1/

1986 1987
2 MILLION POUNDS

ARK 3/ : 16.0 10.0 12.0
CALIF : 620.0 535.0 650.0
COLO : 110.0 18.0 110.0
CONN : 42.0 47.0 45.0
DEL 3/ : 19.0 27.0 30.0
GA 3/ : 20.0 30.0 50.0
TDAHO 3 131.0 94.0 139.0
ILL H 106.0 90.0 103.0
IND : 75.0 37.0 80.0
IOWA 3/ : 13.5 5.5 10.0
KANS 3/ : 15.0 3.0 12.0
KY 3/ : 17.0 4.0 20.0
MAINE 3 85.0 88.0 75.0
MD : 80.0 87.0 40.0
MASS : 89.0 95.0 97.0
MICH 3 1,100.0 700.0 1,150.0
MINN 3/ H 23.0 19.0 26.0
MO 62.0 37.0 57.0
NH 56.0 50.0 51.0
NJ 105.0 100.0 100.0
N MEX 3/ 10.0 6.0 10.0
NY 1,090.0 900.0 990.0
NC 275.0 120.0 400.0
OHIO 145.0 90.0 150.0
OREG 160.0 105.0 175.0
PA 585.0 620.0 500.0
RI 4.0 §.5 5.5
$C 3/ 16.0 30.0 45.0
TENN 3/ 11.0 9.0 13.0
UTAH 3/ 57.0 34.0 62.0
VT 49.0 49.0 42.0
VA 395.0 460.0 470.0
WASH t 2,050.0 3,100.0 3,600.0
WVA 230.0 230.0 230.0
WIS 60.0 56.0 65.0
US 7,921.5 7,891.0 9,614.5

1/ IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES. 2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED
PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1985-87.7,
1986-25.7. 3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORE-
CAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-35 NASS, USDA



CORN FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

1986 : 1987 :

BUSHELS

1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 270 250 57.0 72.0 24,375 15,390 18,000
ARIZ V/ 3 24 22 110.0 115.0 2,205 2,640 2,530
ARK V/ 3 80 50 106.0 110.0 7,884 8,480 5,500
CALIF 3 250 190 152.0 150.0 46,400 38,000 28,500
COLO : 710 690 140.0 145.0 103,555 99,400 100,050
CONN 2/ :

DEL : 169 155 83.0 74.0 19,075 14,027 11,470
FLA VY : 160 100 62.0 65.0 12,350 9,920 6,500
GA : 730 620 58.0 90.0 81,900 42,340 55,800
IDAHO 1/ : 60 50 130.0 135.0 10,000 7,800 6,750
TLL : 10,400 9,200 135.0 132.0 1,534,950 1,404,000 1,214,400
IND 3 5,700 4,750 122.0 135.0 756,450 695,400 641,250
IOWA : 12,050 10,050 135.0 133.0 1,707,300 1,626,750 1,336,650
KANS 3 1,335 1,200 436.0 130.0 152,100 181,560 156,000 ,
KY ! 1,520 1,150 92.0 102.0 159,120 139,840 117,300
LA Vy 3 385 175 116.0 116.0 23,370 44,660 20,300
MAINE 2/ :

MD 3 580 465 73.0 83.0 70,400 42,340 38,595
MASS 2/ :

MICH : 2,450 1,950 105.0 95.0 286,650 257,250 185,250
MINN : 5,800 5,000 122.0 127.0 724,500 707,600 635,000
MISS 1/ : 180 190 75.0 80.0 7,820 13,500 15,200
MO Hy 2,420 2,150 116.0 115.0 272,800 280,720 247,250
MONT 1/ : 13 10 115.0 115.0 1,045 1,495 1,150
NEBR 2 7,000 6,200 128.0 128.0 953,600 896,000 793,600
Nu 2]

NJ V/ : 104 95 107.0 110.0 12,540 11,128 10,450
N MEX 1/ + 55 45 150.0 155.0 10,075 8,250 6,975
NY : 650 500 99.0 103.0 68,400 64,350 51,500
ne 1,360 1,220 69.0 65.0 128,375 93,840 79,300
N DAK 530 460 93.0 87.0 40,320 49,290 40,020
OHIO 3,720 3,000 128.0 123.0 511,810 476,160 369,000
OKLA 1/ 45 50 116.0 120.0 6,148 5,220 6,000
OREG V/ 30 25 160.0 160.0 6,600 4,800 4,000
PA 1,240 1,160 103.0 92.0 151,800 127,720 106,720
RI 2/

sc 460 385 46.0 80.0 45,760 21,160 30,800
S DAK 2,850 2,700 82.0 84.0 252,000 233,700 226,800
TENN 770 600 74.0 93.0 79,380 56,980 55,800
TEX 1,330 1,250 112.0 109.0 156,450 148,960 136,250
UTAH 1/ 18 21 125.0 125.0 1,840 2,250 2,625
NT 2

VA 400 375 54.0 60.0 54,450 21,600 22,500
WASH 1/ 120 80 170.0 170.0 21,600 20,400 13,600
WVA 1/ 70 60 90.0 92.0 7,665 6,300 5,520
WIS 3,100 2,850 138.0 115.0 358,450 365,800 327,750
WYO V/ 5 60 114.0 110.0 5,194 5,814 6,600
us 69,189 59,553 119.3 119.9 8,876,706 8,252,834 7,139,255

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ NOT
ESTIMATED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-2) NASS, USDA


ALL OTHER HAY

YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE IND: H IND
1986 1987 : 1985 1986: 1987
TONS 1,000 TONS

ALA 1.60 2.40 1,540 1,120 1,680
ARIZ 1/ 3.80 3.50 79 84 105
ARK 2.00 1.80 1,710 1,840 1,710
CALIF 2.50 2.50 1,296 1,500 1,275
COLO 1.60 1.50 938 1,024 1,050
CONN 1/ 2.30 2.05 122 152 133
DEL Y 1.80 2.00 32 29 30
FLA vi 2.60 2.60 624 676 715
GA 1.70 2.30 1,238 901 1,311
IDAHO 1.80 1.70 510 540 425
TL 2.30 2.30 792 1,081 1,035
IND 2.20 2.30 886 836 920
IOWA 2.40 2.50 1,320 1,920 1,250
KANS 1.80 1.90 2,970 2,880 2, 33850
KY 1.80 1.99 3,200 2,772 3,610
LA : 2.60 2.60 702 749 905
MAINE 1/ 2 202 205 1.95 2.00 353 394 410
MD : 145 150 1.80 2.15 364 261 323
MASS V/ : 98 98 2.40 2.30 191 235 225
MICH 3 370 320 1.90 1.70 665 703 544
MINN H 900 925 2.30 2.00 1,980 2,070 1,850
MISS 3 580 530 2.00 2.50 1,300 1,160 3325
MO 3 2,980 3,000 1.60 1.65 5,163 4,768 2 950
MONT : 950 950 1.40 1.30 1,050 1,330 1,235
NEBR H 2,000 1,550 1.30 1.20 1,995 2,600 1,860
NEV : 280 270 1.40 1.30 338 392 351
NH V : 66 66 2.10 2.10 146 139 139
Nd Vy 72 72 2.10 2.10 165 151 151
N MEX T/ 70 70 1.70 1.70 136 119 119
NY 1,320 1,300 2.10 2.10 2,665 2,772 2,730
NC 380 410 1.35 1.60 604 513 656
N DAK 1,550 1,350 1.40 1.40 1,668 2,170 1,890
OHIO : 730 725 2.20 2.25 1,800 1,606 1,631
OKLA 1,550 1,400 1.80 2.10 3,230 2,790 2,940
OREG 650 690 1.85 1.85 1,166 1,202 1,277
PA 1,160 1,180 2.10 2.00 2,530 2,436 2,360
RI V 3 6 6 2.35 2.20 13 14 13
sc : 205 225 1.60 2.40 492 328 540
S DAK H 2,200 1,800 1.40 1.20 1,600 3,080 2,160
TENN : 1,280 1,600 1.40 1.90 2,700 1,792 3,040
TEX 3 3,100 3,000 2.20 2.40 7,282 6,820 7,200
UTAH 1/ : 165 150 1.95 2.00 290 302 300
VT V/ : 325 325 2,00 2.05 650 650 666
VA 3 1,000 1,096 1.20 1.50 1,380 1,200 1,644
WASH : 360 300 2.50 2.40 840 900 720
WA : 480 550 1.20 1.40 900 576 770
WIs 3 530 550 2.50 2.50 1,200 1,325 1,375
wyo 3 700 680 1.35 1.40 738 945 952
US > 35,526 34,706 1-80 1.88 63,553 63,847 65,350

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-27 NASS, USDA


SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

STATE 2 IND : : IND :
1986 1/ : 1987 :1986 1/: 1987 : 1985 : 1986 1/
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA t 610 500 23.0 20.0 27,810 14,030 10,000
ARK : 3,300 3,350 20.0 24.0 98,050 66,000 80,400
DEL : 240 235 24.0 20.0 7,200 5,760 4,700
FLA 2) : 140 95 23.0 24.0 5,980 3,220 2,280
GA H 820 800 17.0 22.0 37,200 13,940 17,600
ILL : 9,000 8,750 40.0 38.0 382,500 360,000 332,500
IND r 4,250 4,350 37.0 40.0 185,090 157,250 174,000
IOWA : 8,450 8,050 41.5 42.0 309,700 350,675 338,100
KANS : 1,740 2,100 33.5 31.0 43,710 58,290 65,100
kY : 1,120 1,020 32.0 28.0 41,820 35,840 28,560
LA : 1,750 1,660 20.0 23.0 44,100 35,000 38,180
MO : 390 410 27.0 26.0 12,800 10,530 10,660
MICH : 930 1,090 31.0 31.0 34,560 28,830 33,790
MINN : 4,650 4,700 35.0 40.0 160,000 162,750 188,000
MISS : 2,450 2,450 17.0 21.0 70,740 41,650 51,450
MO : 5,250 4,900 32.5 33.0 180,435 170,625 = 161,700
NEBR : 2,450 2,350 38.0 37.0 84,960 93,100 86,950
NJ 2/ : WW7 104 28.0 31.0 4,386 3,276 3,224
nc : 1,530 1,300 24.0 24.0 39,100 36,720 31,200
N DAK 2/ : 470 510 35.0 36.0 12,740 16,450 18,360
OHIO : 3,620 4,080 40.5 39.0 160,605 146,610 159,120
OKLA 2/ 3 200 220 24.0 26.0 4,370 4,800 5,720
PA 2/ r 155 165 35.0 35.0 5,950 5,425 5,775
sc : 830 750 16.5 22.0 24,600 13,695 16,500
S_DAK : 1,330 1,340 30.5 32.0 40,640 40,565 42,880
TENN : 1,420 1,250 25.0 27.0 45,260 35,500 33,750
TEX : 190 150 23.0 27.0 7,250 4,370 4,050
VA : 570 560 24.0 22.0 17,375 13,680 12,320
WIS 2/ : 320 320 36.0 35.0 9,600 11,520 11,200
us : 58,292 57,559 33.3 34.2 2,098,531 1,940,101 1,968,069

Vv REVISED. ar ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER
FORECAST.

AREA PLANTED, SOYBEANS 1/

1,000 ACRES 1,000 ACRES

ALA t 650

§,450
ARK : 3,400 2,500
DEL : 245 120
FLA : 150 1,640
GA : 1,220 475
TLL 2 9,050 3,650
IND : 4,300 255
IOWA : 8,500 160
KANS : 1,850 1,020
KY 7 1,150 1,350
LA : 1,880 1,470
MD H 400 240
MICH : 970 610
MINN : 4,750 330
MISS t 2,600
1/ REVISED.
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-23 NASS, USDA



GRAPES

PRODUCTION
Vv

TOTAL

TABLE TYPE
CALIF : 580,000 620,000 530,000
WINE TYPE :
CALIF > 2,140,000 2,105,000 1,900,000
RAISIN TYPE 2/ 3/
CALIF : 2,487,000 2,045,000 2,100,000
ALL :
ARIZ af: 18,500 23,000 21,000
ARK ay: 8,000 6,000 5,000
CALIF : 5,207,000 4,770,000 4,530,000
GA ay: 23100 2,000 2,700
MICH : 51,000 32,000 58,000
Mo 4/: 900 2,900 2,600
NY : 144,000 164,000 174,000
ne af: 1,500 1,500 2,500
OHIO af: 7,000 8,000 9,500
PA 50,000 60,000 60,000
sc 4s: 600 500 700
WASH 116,100 156,000 230,000
us 5,606,700 5,225,900 096,000

Vv DE N v E AND H E T (TONS): - 0,
1986 - 600. 2/ FRESH BASIS. 3/ EXCLUDES PRODUCTION FROM APPROXIMATELY
15,000 ACRES OF THOMPSON SEEDLESS VINEYARDS IN THE VOLUNTARY RAISIN DIVERSION
PROGRAM FOR 1987; 50,000 ACRES IN 1986; AND 30,000 IN 1985. 4/ ESTIMATES FOR
CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PRUNES AND PLUMS

PRODUCTION

AND : TOTAL W/

PRUNES (DRIED BASIS) 3
CALIF : 141,000 99,000 200,000

PRUNES AND PLUMS :
IDAHO : 4,500 5,000 6,000

MICH 11,000 11,000 17,000
OREG : 26,000 22,000 21,000
WASH : 10,200 9,100 9,600
TOTAL i 51,700 47,100 53,600

/_ PRUNES AND PLUMS - INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
TONS): OREG 1985 - 3,600, 1986 - 3,500.

FILBERTS

TONS (IN-SHELL BASIS)

TED FORWARD FROM

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-36 NASS, USDA



AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED

COLO 13 15 18 2 2 3
DEL 29 30 20 3 4 3
GA 450 425 380 90 85 70
ILL 50 45 65 8 7 6
IND 35 35 40 VW 10 iW
IOWA 25 20 25 6 4 4
KANS 60 64 35 12 10 10
KY 50 46 50 2 q 2
MD 45 46 55 6 9 8
MICH 135 145 115 ral 23 20
MINN 145 100 75 110 50 40
MO 38 20 18 3 3 2
NEBR 175 140 200 54 45 50
Nd 58 58 55 10 10 8
NY 110 105 90 12 13 10
NC 160 160 150 35 35 30
N DAK 100 135 160 80 125 155
OHIO 40 40 50 4 5

OKLA 180 170 175 36 40 20
OREG 20 20 20 3 5 4
PA 70 75 85 20 18 18
sc 90 80 90 28 23 24
S_DAK 130 130 150 120 120 140
TEX 150 100 140 20 10 10
VA 175 160 200 12 4 15
WIS 30 20 25 9 6 5
us

PRODUCTION

1985 1986 1987 1985 1986 1987
BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

COLO 2 22.0 21.0 24.0 44 42 72
DEL > 35.0 34.0 33.0 105 136 99
GA 2 23.0 21.0 22.0 2,070 1,785 1,540
TLL : 32.0 30.0 24.0 256 210 144
IND 1 28.0 28.0 27.0 308 280 297
IOWA i 36.0 36.0 35.0 216 144 140
KANS : 25.0 21.0 27.0 300 210 270
KY : 26.0 28.0 36.0 52 28 72
MD i 33.0 33.0 31.0 198 297 248
MICH 31.0 31.0 32.0 651 713 640
MINN > 30.0 32.0 30.0 3,300 1,600 1,200
MO 27.0 20.0 18.0 81 60 36
NEBR 23.0 23.0 27.0 1,242 1,035 1,050
NJ 32.0 31.0 29.0 320 310 232
NY 35.0 33.0 30.0 420 429 300
NC 19.0 17.0 24.0 665 595 720
N DAK 33.0 34.0 29.0 2,640 4,250 4,495
OHIO 43.0 35.0 36.0 172 175 180
OKLA : 23.0 21.0 18.0 828 840 360
OREG : 37.0 40.0 30.0 11 200 120
PA 37.0 35.0 35.0 740 630 630
sc > 19.0 17.0 22.0 532 391 §28
S_DAK : 37.0 37.0 36.0 4,440 4,440 5,040
TEX : 20.0 19.0 15.0 400 190 150
VA : 26.0 26.0 29.0 312 364 435
WIS : 26.0 28.0 20.0 234 168 100
us 28.8 28.8 28.4 20,637 19,522 19,098
1/ AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-18 NASS, USDA



BARLEY: ACREAGE

AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED
STATE  :-neennn---no anne n-ne new nnn nm eeen ann nnn cece nnn nnee nena ne enen nnn eeene
1985 1986 1987 1985 1986 1987
1,000 ACRES

ARIZ: 67 32 25 62 29 22
CALIF: 500 470 400 420 400 300
colo”: 360 390 230 340 350 210
DEL : 63 55 55 57 50 52
IDAHO : 1,280 1,140 840 1,240 1,110 820
KANS 240 350 140 220 290 120
KY : 32 25 15 26 117 11
MD : 103 90 100 96 82 89
MICH: 39 60 55 38 55 50
MINN : 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,075 1,000 870
MONT : 2,350 2,400 2,300 1,500 2,180 2,100
NEBR: 145 150 90 120 135 75
NEV : 40 36 36 37 33 33
Nd : 21 29 20 7 20 15
N MEX: 18 22 15 15 16 uv
NC : 78 53 46 66 45 40
N DAK : 3,500 3,600 3,000 3,350 3,450 2,900
OKLA: 70 50 35 50 35 25
OREG ss: 360 375 250 350 365 220
PA : 75 70 65 70 65 60
SC : 36 24 15 32 21 13
S DAK: 780 930 870 720 855 850
TEX : 70 70 65 50 35 30
UTAH: 172 165 152 159 152 145
VA : 130 90 100 100 72 78
WASH =: 1,200 920 660 1,180 900 645
WIS : 57 95 110 53 85 88
Wyo : 170 168 157 160 160 150
US : 13,156 13,059 11,046 11,603 12,007 10,022

1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-10 NASS, USDA



:

TOBACCO

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

CONN 3,315 2,914
FLA 16,318 14,000
GA 82,080 74,800
IND 14,560 12,300
KY 428,409 314,940 332,175
MD 26,600 21,120 16,950
MASS 781 622 772
MO WV 5,450 4,389 4,300
NC 556,522 444,790 462,725
OHIO 16,946 13,574 12,325
PA 21,900 21,830 20,730
sc 98,900 75,480 92,660
TENN 127,403 © 82,707 100,445
VA 91,092 73,524 73,997
WVA 1/ 3,384 2,640 2,970
WIS 17,978 10,781 10,180
vs 1,511,638 1,162,747 1,234,243

FORECAST.

PRODUCTION

1986 =: 1987 : 1986: 1987

1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
CALIF : 188.0 215.0 25.7 26.5 4,669 4,832 5,698
coLo : 37.2 36.8 23.9 22.5 46 889 828
IDAHO : 160.0 161.0 26.0 26.5 3,496 4,160 4,267
MICH : 110.0 140.0 20.8 20.0 2,325 2,288 2,800
MINN : 311.0 310.0 16.7 19.0 5,088 5,194 5,890
MONT : 47.0 49.2 21.7 22.0 811 1,020 1,082
NEBR 59.0 56.6 23.5 22.0 1,229 1,387 1,245
N MEX 2s 5 2/ 22.0 2/ ey W
N DAK 163.8 164.0 17.9 18.5 2,423 2,932 3,034
OHIO 15.0 16.0 20.6 20.0 258 309 320
OREG 12.8 13.3 30.0 29.0 319 384 386
TEX 37.0 32.0 22.4 22.0 833 829 704
wyo 50.5 53.9 19.8 20.0 1,032 1,000 1,078
us : 1,191.3 1,248.3 21.2 21.9 22,529 25,224 27,343

\/ RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR QVERWINTEREO SPRING PLANTED
BEETS IN CALIF. 2/ NOT ESTIMATED.

nm

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
FLA 405.0 420.0 33.2 34.5 13,117 13,446 14,490
HAW 90.2 88.0 95.2 97.5 8,129 8,587 8,580
LA 270.0 285.0 27.3 27.0 6,006 7,371 7,695
TEX 31.0 35.3 29.3 31.0 961 907 1,094
us 796.2 828.3 38.1 38.5 28,213 30,311

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-33 NASS, USDA



AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

POUNDS 1,000 CWT

IDAHO : 1,450 1,600 421 480
OREG 3 1,150 1,400 29 42

STATE : AVERAGE : 1986 : 1987 z: STATE : AVERAGE : 1986 : 1987
: 1976-85 : 3 it : 1976-85 :

PERCENT

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64;
SEVERE DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME OROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-30 NASS, USDA



METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 7.52 209,631,640 181,377,180 181,345,430

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 4.46 23,918,610 19,220,510 18,973,480
RICE 6.13 6,097,010 5,752,410 5,752,410
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS ui 2.30 52,800,900 53,256,970 53,562,060
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 2.73 1,678,620 1,769,860 1,677,510
SUNFLOWER 1/ 1,52 1,213,690 1,031,420
ALL COTTON 0.72 2,118,690 2,796,960 2,903,640

UPLAND : 0.71 2,073,860 2,746,340 2,854,110

AMER=PIMA : 0.96 44,830 50,620 49,530
COTTONSEED : 3,448,210 4,575,840 4,755,460
ALL HAY : 5.72 140,859,480 2/136,801,640 139,449,710

ALFALFA : 7. 7.77 82,938,460  2/78,116,770 80,165,190

ALL OTHER : 4.03 9 4.22 57,921,020  2/58,684,870 59,284,520
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 1.72 (1.68 1,038,630 1,119,410 1,143,500
ORY EDIBLE PEAS : 2.00 2.36 144,970 153,540
AUSTRIAN WINTER :

PEAS 2 1.60 1.77 20,410 23,680
LENTILS 2 1.34 1.42 85,960 81,370
TOBACCO 1 2.24 2.30 527,410 558,560 559,840
SUGARBEETS : 47.46 49,10 22,882,830 24,537,530 24,805,150
SUGARCANE FOR :

SUGAR AND SEED 1 85.34 86.22 27,497,680 28,486,510 28,902,000
APPLES, COM'L : 3,579,280  2/4,395,510 4,361,040
GRAPES 2 4,740,860 4,611,220 4,623,010
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) : 89,810 181,440 181,440
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) 8 42,730 48,630 48,630
PECANS : 123,690 126,140 131,990
FILBERTS : 13,700 3/16, 780 16,780

1986-87 1987-88 1987-88

CITRUS FRUITS 4/
ORANGES : 7,017,980 7,129,560
LEMONS 3 986,110 817,370

1/1986 REVISED. /_ AUG 1, 1987.  3/ MID- AUGUST FORECAST PUBLISHED IN
“FILBERT PRODUCTION" RELEASED AUG 24, 1987. 4/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM
OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING
YEAR,

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

INDICATED —
1987 1/

INOIC TE
1987 1/

POTATOES

WINTER 2/ 2 27.24 23.98 135,670 113,440

SPRING : 29.27 25.09 899,110 796,960

SUMMER > 24.64 25.86 949,230 1,039,310

FALL : 34.37 14,413,770

TOTAL > 33.22 16,397,780
HOPS P2219 2.01 22,210 23,120
PEACHES : 1,055,230 1,127,900
SWEET CHERRIES : 125,010 1723000
TART CHERRIES : 101,650 164,970
PEARS 694,540 782,080
APRICOTS : 50,080 1045870
NECTARINES (CALIF) : 186,040 172,370
PLUMS (CALIF) : 137,890 190,510
OLIVES (CALIF) : 101,150 72,570
PISTACHIO NUTS (CALIF) = 33,970 13,610
ALMONDS (CALIE : 113,400 272,150
WALNUTS (CALIF 163,290 235,870

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-7 NASS, USOA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED 1/

crop : : : INDICATED
1986 : 1987 : 1986 : 1987
HECTARES
CORN : 31,029,200 26,719,250 28,000,100 24, 100,500
SORGHUM : 6,200,260 4,763,610 5,626,810 4,254,100
RICE : 971,660 948,590 963, 160 938,070
SOYBEANS 2/ : 24,437,210 23,749,230 23,590,190 23,293,550
PEANUTS : 636,460 617,960 622,090 613,910
SUNFLOWER 2/ : 819,500 698,090 791,170 678,670
ALL COTTON : 4,064,950 4,215,130 3,427,080 4,048,880
UPLAND : 4,019,830 4,162,920 3,382,120 3,997,160
AMER-PIMA : 45,120 52,210 44,960 51,720
ALL HAY : 25,201,670 24,363,550
ALFALFA : 10,824,650 10,318,380
ALL OTHER : 14,377,020 14,045,170
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 677,370 712,980 605,010 682,060
DRY EDIBLE PEAS : 72,840 65,960 72,440 65, 160
AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS: 12,950 17,000 12,750 13,350
LENTILS : 64,350 57,870 63,940 57,470
TOBACCO : 235,490 243,580
SUGARBEETS : 498, 460 513,230 482,110 505,170
SUGARCANE FOR :
SUGAR AND SEED 322,210 335,200

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/ 1986 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP : : : INDICATED
1986 : 1987 1/ : 1986 : 1987 1/
HECTARES

FLAXSEED : 291,380 196,270 276,400 188,590
POTATOES :

WINTER 2/ : 5,060 4,820 4,980 4,730

SPRING : 31,320 33,100 30,720 31,770

SUMMER : 41,360 41,600 38,530 40,190

FALL : 431,040 447,550 419,340 439,700

TOTAL 2/ : 508,780 527,070 493,560 516,380

SWEETPOTATOES : 39, 300 39,090 37,800 37,880

HOPS 10,120 71,530

Vv

TIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-6 NASS, USDA



RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield
surveys taken about October 1. The yield surveys include mailed reports from
farmers for all crops and actual field observations and measurements for corn,
soybeans, cotton, and some fruit and nut crops. Farmers provided appraisals
of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops on their farms and
for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot
observations, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These surveys
are subject to sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common to all
surveys. More importantly, the production forecasts are subject to change due
to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured currently
but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by expressing
the deviations between the October 1 production forecasts and the final
estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1967-86 20-year period; the square root of this
average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current
forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for
grain production forecast is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out
of 3 that the current production forecast of 7,139 million bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately
271 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approximately 471 million
bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year ‘record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 204 million bushels, ranging
from 33 million to 538 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 7 times and above 3 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-19 NASS, USDA


OATS: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

YIELD PRODUCTION

STATE :------------------------- 2 =n 22 nn nnn nnn een nn nnn nnn een

1985 1986 1985 1986 1987

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 41.0 40.0 43.0 1,435 1,200 1,075
ARK : 65.0 67.0 70.0 1,105 23211 1,260
CALIF : 67.0 70.0 70.0 3,015 3,150 2,800
COLO =: 53.0 55.0 60.0 2,915 2,200 3,000
GA : 45.0 39.0 55.0 2,025 1,365 1,650
IDAHO: 53.0 69.0 70.0 2,120 2,070 2,520
TLL : 78.0 72.0 69.0 12,480 14,400 13,110
IND : 69.0 71.0 67.0 7,590 6,390 6,365
IOWA =: 76.0 62.0 55.0 57,760 39,060 35,750
KANS : 56.0 54.0 42.0 10,528 10,800 6,510
KY : 45.0 42.0 52.0 405 252 364
MAINE : 73.0 65.0 75.0 3,358 2,600 2,925
MD : 60.0 55.0 52.0 900 825 988
MICK: 67.0 63.0 57.0 26,130 17,010 17,100
MINN : 70.0 51.0 54.0 77,000 43,350 43,200
v0) : 55.0 50.0 38.0 5,775 5,000 3,420
MONT : 33.0 46.0 48.0 2,310 4,140 5,280
NEBR : 61.0 59.0 48.0 25,620 21,240 17,280
NJ : 63.0 54.0 52.0 315 216 260
NY : 77,0 68.0 60.0 17,710 12,920 12,000
NC : 42.0 40.0 59.0 2,604 2,200 3,540
N DAK : 53,0 55.0 50.0 44,520 38, 500 35,000
OHIO: 85,0 76.0 70.0 26,350 12,160 17,500
OKLA: 43.0 44.0 38.0 2,795 4,400 2,280
OREG =: 92.0 95.0 83.0 9,200 7,600 4,980
PA : 70.0 62.0 57.0 21,000 16,120 143820
$c : 38.0 36.0 51.0 1,596 1,008 1,683
S DAK: 56.0 44.0 46.0 79,520 46,200 52,900
TEX : 50.0 42.0 45.0 15,000 8,400 9,900
UTAH =: 71.0 72.0 75.0 923 864 1,050
VA : 47.0 46.0 47.0 658 460 329
WASH «65.0 65.0 66.0 2,145 2,145 2,310
WVA  : 61.0 50.0 50.0 488 500 400
WIS : 66.0 62.0 54.0 51,480 52,700 43,200
WYO > 45.0 50.0 55.0 2,025 25700 2,475
US : 63.7 56.3 53.3 520,800 386,356 369,224
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-9 NASS, USDA


COTTON

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION 1/

1986 =: 1987 : 1986: 1987: 1985

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES

UPLAND :
ALA : 313.0 333.0 506 519 545.0 330.0 360.0
ARIZ : 249.0 308.0 1,301 1,294 928.0 675.0 830.0
ARK t 480.0 640.0 602 660 703.0 602.0 880.0
CALIF : 990.0 1,120.0 1,088 1,136 3,114.0 2,245.0 2,650.0
FLA 3/ : 19.0 23.5 707 735 32.5 28.0 36.0
GA : 195.0 255.0 455 678 370.0 185.0 360.0
KANS 3/ : 1.0 9 336 587 . 7 1.1
LA : 570.0 600.0 567 720 742.0 673.0 900.0
MISS : 1,000.0 1,090.0 $71 749 1,655.0 1,190.0 1,700.0
MO : 160.0 189.0 588 762 204.0 196.0 300.0
N MEX : 50.0 62.0 595 619 71.0 62.0 80.0
NC : 81.0 94.0 646 562 117.0 109.0 110.0
OKLA : 350.0 390.0 288 394 285.0 210.0 320.0
Sc 2 113.0 125.0 370 538 180.0 87.0 140.0
TENN t 335.0 395.0 467 656 419.0 396.0 540.0
TEX : 3,450.0 4,250.0 353 440 3,910.0 2,535.0 3,900.0
VA 3/ 1.3 1.7 554 508 1.2 1.5 1.8
us : 8,357.3 9,877.1 547 637) 13,277.1 9,525.2 13,108.9

AMER-PIMA :
ARIZ H 73.8 84.8 965 934 108.7 148.3 165.0
N MEX : 11.1 12.0 718 700 11.3 16.6 17.5
TEX : 26.2 31.0 751 697 35.1 41.0 45.0
us : 117.1 127.8 890 854 155.1 205.9 227.5

ALL +
ALA : 313.0 333.0 506 519 545.0 330.0 360.0
ARIZ : 322.8 392.8 1,224 1,216 1,036.7 823.3 995.0
ARK 3 480.0 640.0 602 660 703.0 602.0 880.0
CALIF 2 990.0 1,120.0 1,088 1,136 3,114.0 2,245.0 2,650.0
FLA 3/ : 19.0 23.5 707 735 32.5 28.0 36.0
GA : 195.0 255.0 455 678 370.0 185.0 360.0
KANS 3/  : 1.0 9 336 587 4 7 1.1
LA : 570.0 600.0 567 720 742.0 673.0 900.0
MISS : 1,000.0 1,090.0 571 749 1,655.0 1,190.0 1,700.0
MO : 160.0 189.0 $88 762 204.0 196.0 300.0
N MEX : 61.1 74.0 617 632 82.3 78.6 97.5
NC : 81.0 94.0 646 562 117.0 109.0 110.0
OKLA : 350.0 390.0 288 394 285.0 210.0 320.0
sc : 113.0 125.0 370 538 180.0 87.0 140.0
TENN : 335.0 395.0 567 656 419.0 396.0 540.0
TEX : 3,476.2 4,281.0 356 442 3,945.1 2,576.0 3,945.0
VA 3/ 1.3 1.7 554 508 1.2 1.5 1.8
us : 8,468.4 10,004.9 552 640 13,432.2 9,731.1 13,336.4

1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED. 2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

PRODUCTION

1986

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-25 NASS, USDA


@ Agricultural United States
ro Statistics Department of
Board Agriculture
H National Agricultural Washington, D.C. 20250
ro u Cc 10 n Statistics Service

RELEASED: October 8, 1987
3:00 ET

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production is forecast at 7.14 billion bushels (181 million
metric tons), virtually unchanged from the September 1 forecast but down
13 percent from last year. The 90 percent confidence interval for this
production forecast is 6.67 to 7.61 billion bushels.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at 1.97 billion bushels (53.6 million metric
tons), 1 percent above both the September 1 forecast and 1986. The 90
percent confidence interval for this production forecast is 1.84 to 2.09
billion bushels.

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 13.3 million bales, up 37 percent from
the 1986 crop and 4 percent above the September 1 estimate. The 90
percent confidence interval for this production forecast is 12.2 to 14.5
million bales.

ALL ORANGE production is forecast at 183 million boxes (7.13 million metric
tons), 1 percent above last season and 4 percent higher than the 1985-86
season.

ALL TOBACCO production is forecast at 1.23 billion pounds (560 thousand metric
tons), fractionally above the September 1 forecast and 6 percent higher
than 1986.

PEANUT production is forecast at 3.70 billion pounds (1.68 million metric
tons), slightly below last year and down 5 percent from the September 1
forecast.

KIKI I III II KI IIA I SII SKI III IIIA IASI III IIA IS IIIS AIS II SII SIRI SISA IIS III IIIS

* INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT *
* *
* Included in this report: Small Grains preliminary Annual Summary, *
* Pages A-2 and A-3 (U.S.) and A-8 - A-18 (State Data). *

RIA III KIKI IAI IIIS IIIA ISK I SAIS IIS IIS SHIA ISIS IISA IIA IIS I SII ISA I SAS AIS IIA

CrPr 2-2 (10-87) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


Production of all cigar-type tobacco is estimated to total 28.4 million
pounds (12.9 thousand metric tons), 6 percent below last year. Cigar filler
production declined 8 percent and binder 6 percent, but wrapper production is
up 8 percent.

SUGARBEETS: The sugarbeet production forecast of 27.3 million tons (24.8 mil-

lion metric tons) is an increase of 1 percent from the September 1
forecast and is up 8 percent from last year's production. The increase from a
year ago reflects both increased acreage and higher yields. Acreage expected
to be harvested is up 5 percent from 1986. An average yield of 21.9 tons per
acre is expected, compared with 21.2 tons in 1986.

Stockpiling began October 2 in the Red River Valley of North Dakota and
Minnesota. As of September 27, 15 percent of the North Dakota crop was lifted.

California harvest continues active with ideal weather and above normal
yields. Forecasted production is up from the September 1 outlook.

The Idaho crop continues to progress well. Harvest is underway in some
areas.

Michigan factories are now processing beets, with about 4 percent of the
crop dug. Recent coo} nights have facilitated storage.

Lifting in Montana is about 13 percent complete following an early start.
Digging in Wyoming is about 15 percent complete. Digging was halted a short
time due to unseasonably warm temperatures.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 31.9 mil-

lion tons (28.9 million metric tons), a record high, up 1 percent
from the September 1 forecast, and 5 percent more than the 1986 crop. The
larger production from a year ago is the combined result of increased acreage
and higher yields. The production forecast for Florida and Louisiana is up
from September 1 but unchanged for Hawaii and Texas, Average yield is
forecast at 38.5 tons per acre, 0.4 of a ton above a year ago. Area for
harvest, at 828 thousand acres (335 thousand hectares), is 4 percent greater
than in 1986.

In Florida, cutting for seed and planting was active during September.
The first mill is expected to open October 24.

September weather in Hawaii was beneficial for cane development. Mostly
sunny skies were occasionally interrupted by light to heavy showers.

The Louisiana crop is in good condition. Planting was 87 percent complete
on September 27 compared with 91 percent in 1986 and the average of 66 percent.

Good weather in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas allowed cane to progress
nicely. High temperatures early in the month stressed some fields but
irrigation alleviated the problem.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: The pasture and range feed condition on

October 1 for the 48 contiguous States was
79 percent, 4 points below October 1, 1986, but 6 points above the 1976-85
average for the date. Condition improved during September in 26 States,
declined in 17 States, and was unchanged in 5 States.

Rainfall along the East Coast improved pasture and range conditions from
Maine to Georgia. Most of the Corn Belt and Great Plains showed little change
from September 1 except for Oklahoma and Texas which received rainfall often
during the month. Pastures in the Rocky Mountain States from Montana to New
Mexico remained in good to excellent condition. Conditions declined in the
Northwestern States.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-11 NASS, USDA



ALL WHEAT:

AREA PLANTED 1/

ACREAGE

AREA HARVESTED

ALA 500
ARIZ 114
ARK 650
CALIF 885
COLO 3,774
DEL 45
FLA 160
GA 950
IDAHO 1,500
ILL 850
IND 770
IOWA 120
KANS 12,400
KY 430
LA 250
MD 140
MICH 770
MINN 2,835
MISS 380
MO 1,500
MONT 5,660
NEBR 2,600
NEV 27
Nd 45
N MEX 730
NY 155
NC 800
N DAK 9,350
OHIO 1,000
OKLA 7,800
OREG 1,140
PA 220
sc 460
S DAK 4,170
TENN 340
TEX 8,100
UTAH 274
VA 340
WASH 2,850
WA 10
WIS 170
wy0 311

1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1987

1

1,000 ACRES

250
91
930
590
3,160
50

80
550
1,210
1,100
750
90
0,700
500
240
175
450
2,580
400
900
4,895
2,200
24

30
660
90
490
9,300
850
7,200
845
190
290
3,660
440
6,800
212
275
2,100
13
115
329

400 220 170
112 96 89
570 815 3840
830 675 537
3,522 2,955 2,555
43 34 48
130 100 60
825 550 460
1,350 1,310 1,140
750 820 950
700 700 600
112 60 30
11,400 10,200 9,900
310 270 330
210 210 170
133 145 165
750 680 400
2,683 2,814 2,519
300 200 350
1,280 570 770
3,960 4,760 4,690
2,300 2,000 1,950
24 22 21

37 30 27
570 460 340
145 155 80
760 460 440
8,870 9,380 9,135
950 1,050 800
5,500 5,200 4,800
1,065 1,025 810
210 220 185
430 300 275
3,755 3,840 3,528
250 325 350
5,850 4,800 3,600
260 258 195
285 170 215
2,690 2,410 2,015
9 iW

157 148 88
248 277 276
64,734 60,723 55,914

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA



BARLEY: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE ------------- 2-3-2 enn enn nnn ne ene nnn nee eee eens
1985 : 1986 1987 1986 1987
BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ARIZ: 97.0 100.0 99.0 6,014 2,900 2,178
CALIF : 59.0 59.0 51.0 24,780 23,600 15,300
COLO =: «64.0 60.0 68.0 21,760 21,000 14,280
DEL : 58.0 61.0 62.0 3,306 3,050 3,224
IDAHO : 58.0 65.0 72.0 71,920 72,150 59,040
KANS =: 44.0 36.0 40.0 9,680 10,440 4,800
KY : 35.0 31.0 67.0 910 527 737
MD : 57.0 60.0 67.0 5,472 4,920 5,963
MICH : 68.0 59.0 55.0 2,584 3,245 2,750
MINN : 66.0 55.0 54.0 70,950 55,000 46 ,980
MONT : 20.0 39.0 45.0 30,000 85,020 94,500
NEBR : 32.0 40.0 36.0 3,840 5,400 2,700
NEV : 80.0 90.0 80.0 2,960 2,970 2,640
Nd : 63.0 62.0 60.0 1,071 1,240 900
N MEX : 70.0 65.0 70.0 1,050 1,040 770
NC : 40.0 36.0 62.0 2,640 1,620 2,480
N DAK : 55.0 51.0 47.0 184,250 175,950 136,300
OKLA: 38.0 36.0 30.0 1,900 1,260 750
OREG =: ~=55.0 57.0 68.0 19,250 20,805 14,960
PA : 62.0 60.0 57.0 4,340 3,900 3,420
Sc : 38.0 28.0 49.0 1,216 588 637
S DAK : 45.0 42.0 40.0 32,400 35,910 34,000
TEX : 45.0 50.0 40.0 2,250 1,750 1,200
UTAH =: 74.0 76.0 82.0 11,766 11,552 17,890
VA : 48.0 55.0 66.0 4,800 3,960 5,148
WASH =: 48.0 50.0 55.0 56,640 45,000 35,475
WIS : 58.0 57.0 54.0 3,074 4,845 4,752
wyo : 66.0 68.0 69.0 10,560 10,880 10,350
US : 51.0 50.8 51.7 591,383 610,522 518,124
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-11 NASS, USDA


SOYBEAN REVISIONS - 1986 CROP: The 1986 revised soybean production is 1.94

billion bushels (52.8 million metric tons),
down 66.9 million bushels from the previous estimate. Revised harvested area
is estimated at 58.3 million acres (23.6 million hectares), down 2 percent
from the earlier estimate. The revised yield, at 33.3 bushels per acre, is 1
percent below the previous yield figure. The revision is based on a
reevaluation of all survey data, end of marketing year stock estimates, annual
crushings, export data, and additional survey data in some States.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

ULI BES
2 —

PEANUTS: Production is forecast at 3.70 billion pounds (1.68 million metric

tons), slightly below tast year and down 5 percent from the
September 1 forecast. Harvested area is estimated at 1.52 million acres (614
thousand hectares), down 1 percent from 1986. Yield is expected to average
2438 pounds per acre, 31 pounds above last year but 134 pounds below the
September 1 forecast.

Production in the southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina) is expected to total 2.41 billion pounds, up 1 percent from
1986. Growers expect to harvest 940 thousand acres, 4 percent below last
year. Yield for the four-State area is expected to average 2565 pounds per
acre, 136 pounds above 1986. Harvesting was active throughout the area and
yields have been below expectations,

The Virginia-North Carolina crop is forecast at 617 million pounds, 14
percent below 1986. Area for harvest is expected to total 236 thousand acres,
2 percent above last year. Harvest is late and just getting underway.

The Southwest crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total
671 million pounds, 12 percent above 1986. Area harvested is expected to
reach 341 thousand acres, up 6 percent from last year. Harvest has been
delayed by wet fields in Oklahoma and is just beginning in Texas.

SUNFLOWER: Production of al) sunflower is forecast at 2.27 billion pounds

(1.03 million metric tons), down 15 percent from 1986 and 28 per-
cent from 1985. This is the third consecutive year sunflower production has
declined. Area for harvest, at 1.68 million acres (679 thousand hectares), is
down 14 percent from a year ago. Prospective yield, at 1356 pounds per acre,
is down 13 pounds from last year. Yield is forecast at 1450 pounds in
Minnesota, 1400 pounds in both North Dakota and Texas, and 1130 pounds in
South Dakota.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-7 NASS, USDA



TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE - CONTINUED

: AREA HARVESTED : PRODUCTION
CLASS AND TYPE feces --

N
1987

1986 1987 1986
ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

CLASS 3B, DARK

AIR-CURED :
TYPE 35, ONE SUCKER :

BELT :

KY : 2,900 2,000 2,000 1,900 5,800 3,800

TENN : 700 550 1,900 2,000 1,330 1,100

us : 3,600 2,550 1,981 1,922 7,130 4,900
TYPE 36, GREEN RIVER

BELT H

KY z 1,700 1,200 2,220 1,900 3,774 2,280
TYPE 37, VA SUN-CURED :

BELT :

VA 2 130 130 1,245 1,050 162 137
TOTAL 35-37 H 5,430 3,880 2,038 1,886 11,066 7,317

CLASS 4, CIGAR FILLER :
TYPE 41, PA SEEDLEAF =:

PA H 7,600 7,600 2,000 1,900 15,200 14,440
TYPE 42-44 QHIO-MIAMI :

VALLEY TYPES 3

OHIO af: 320 50 1,595 1,700

510 85
TOTAL 41-44 2/.: 7,920 7,650 1,984 1,899 15,710 14,525
CLASS 5, CIGAR BINDER :

CLASS 5A, CONN VALLEY :

BINDER :

TYPE 51, CONN VALLEY :

BROADLEAF :

CONN : 1,000 930 1,750 1,800 1,750 1,674

MASS 3/ : 110 1,800 198
TYPE 52, CONN VALLEY :

HAVANA SEED :

MASS : 130 1,925 250
TOTAL 51-52 : 1,130 1,040 1,770 1,800 2,000 1,872
CLASS 5B, WIS BINDER :

TYPE 54, SOUTHERN WIS :

WIS : 3,100 2,900 1,530 2,200 4,743 6,380
TYPE 55, NORTHERN WIS :

WIS : 3,500 2,000 1,725 1,900 6,038 3,800
TOTAL 54-55 : 6,600 4,900 1,633 2,078 10,781 10,180
TOTAL 51-55 : 7,730 5,940 1,653 2,029 12,781 12,052
CLASS 6, CIGAR WRAPPER :

TYPE 61, CONN VALLEY

SHADE-GROWN :

CONN : 990 1,312 1,240

MASS : 340 372 574

us : 1,330 1,684 1,814
ALL CIGAR TYPES :

TOTAL 41-61 : 16, 930 28, 391

ALL TOBACCO

7 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ INCLUDES BINDER TYPES GROWN IN OHIO.
3/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1987.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-32 NASS, USDA



APPLES: The final forecast of the 1987 U.S. apple crop places production at

9.61 billion pounds (4.36 million metric tons), down 1 percent from
the August 1 forecast of 9.69 billion pounds (4.40 million metric tons) but 22
percent more than last year's production.

Eastern States expect 3.17 billion pounds, down 6 percent from August 1
but 8 percent above a year ago. Hot, dry weather during the summer reduced
the crop along much of the East Coast from Virginia to Maine. September rains
came too late to help sizing. The New York crop has poor color because of the
lack of sunshine and fruit drop has been heavy. The crop developed two weeks
ahead of normal and labor has been in short supply. Fruit drop was very heavy
in Pennsylvania. September rains caused fruit to split in Virginia.

Prospects in the Central States are forecast at 1.70 billion pounds, up
fractionally from the August 1 forecast and 60 percent above 1986. Harvest in
Ohio is active. Growers are concerned about excessive fruit drop, high
temperatures and short moisture conditions in southern areas of the State.
The high temperatures could adversely affect storage quality of the crop.
Some fruit are smaller than normal because of the heat and drought. Harvest
is active in Michigan.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 4.75 billion pounds, up 3
percent from the August 1 forecast and 22 percent above the 1986 crop.
Harvest is underway on Washington's record crop. Hot weather in August and
September caused some poorly colored and sunburned fruit, and delayed the
harvest of Red Delicious. The Golden Delicious crop is nearly picked.
California is picking a crop with excellent quality but small sized fruit.
Hot weather has caused some lowering of fruit quality in Oregon.

GRAPES: The U.S. grape crop is forecast at 5.10 million tons (4.62 million

metric tons), up fractionally from the September 1 forecast but 2
percent below last year's production. Michigan, New York, and Washington
showed increases from September 1.

California's production, at 4.53 million tons, remained unchanged from
September 1 but is 5 percent below last year. The California raisin variety
grape forecast remains at 2.10 million tons, the same as the September 1
forecast but is 3 percent above the 1986 production. September weather was
excellent for drying grapes, as maturity of the crop was 1 to 2 weeks ahead of
normal and sugar levels rose rapidly. Picking of Thompson seedless grapes got
underway in mid-August with excellent quality being reported.

The California wine variety grape forecast of 1.90 million tons is
unchanged from September 1 but is 10 percent below 1986. More than 1.7
million tons of wine grapes had been crushed for wine by September 26,
approximately the same amount crushed by that date last year. Harvesting
began in early August and made rapid progress through September. Maturity of
the crop ranged from 1 to 2 weeks ahead of normal with yield per acre being
reported as down from 1986 levels.

The California table variety grape forecast remains at 530 thousand tons,
15 percent below last year. Fresh market table grape harvest continued during
September with very good quality grapes shipped from the San Joaquin Valley.
Harvesting of table varieties to be crushed for wine got underway in
mid-August. By the end of September, 127,000 tons of table variety grapes had
been crushed for wine compared with 176,000 tons at this same time in 1986.

The Washington all grape forecast, at 230 thousand tons, is 2 percent
above the September 1 forecast and 47 percent above 1986 production. This
forecast consists of 190 thousand tons of Concord grapes and 40.0 thousand
tons of wine varieties. Concord harvest is active with most grapes expected
to be picked by mid-October. A cool spell? helped improve crop prospects and
berry size increased. Wine grape harvest is also active.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-12 NASS, USDA



CLASS AND TYPE

CLASS 1, FLUE-CURED
TYPE 11, OLD AND
MIDDLE BELTS

TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE

NC 78,000
VA 28,000
US 106,000
TYPE 12, EASTERN NC
BELT :
NC : 102,000
TYPE 13, NC BORDER & :
SC BELT :
nc 27,000
sc 37,000
US 64,000
TYPE 14, GA-FLA BELT
FLA 5,300
GA 31,000
US : 36,300
TOTAL 11-14 308, 300
CLASS 2, FIRE-CURED
TYPE 21, VA BELT
VA 2,900
TYPE 22, EASTERN
DISTRICT
KY 4,400
TENN 8,800
US 13,200
TYPE 23, WESTERN
DISTRICT
KY 4,300
TENN 680
us 4,980
TOTAL 21-23 21,080
CLASS 3, AIR-CURED
CLASS 3A, LIGHT
AIR~CURED
TYPE 37, BURLEY
IND 5,900
KY 140,000
MO 1/ 2,100
we 7,600
OHIO 7,100
TENN 39,000
VA 7,400
WA 1/ : 1,600
us 210,700
TYPE 32, SOUTHERN MD
BELT
MD 16,000
PA 3,400
us : 195400
TOTAL 31-32 : 230,100

SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE A-32.

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1987

80,000
29,000
109,000

107,000

29,000
41,000
70,000

5,600
34,000
39,600

325,600

2,400

2,800
5,500
8,300

2,700
450
3,150
13,850

6,000
145,000
2,000
8,500
7,200
46,000

1,800
225,300

15,000
3,400
18,400
243,700

1,980
2,055
2,000

2,165

2,040
2,040
2,040

2,510
2,190
2,237
2,091

1,220

1,985
2,025
2,012

2,240
2,275
2,245
1,958

POUNDS

PRODUCTION

1,000 POUNDS

1,950 154,440 156,000
1,940 57,540 56,260
1,947. 211,980 = 212,260
2,125 220,830 © -227,375
2,150 55,080 62,350
23260 75,480 92,660
2,214 130,560 155,010
2,500 13,303 14,000
25200 67,890 74,800
25242 81,193 88,800
2,099 644,563 683,445
1,100 3,538 2,640
1,900 8,734 5,320
2,000 17,820 11,000
1,966 26,554 16,320
2,000 9,632 5,400
23100 13547 945
2,014 113179 6,345
13827 41,271 25,305
2,050 12,095 12,300
2,175 287,000 =. 315,375
23150 4,389 45,300
2,000 14,440 17,000
1,700 13,064 12,240
13900 62,010 87,400
1,700 12,284 14,960
13650 23640 23970
2,071 407,922 466,545
1,130 21,120 16,950
15850 6,630 6,290
13263 27,750 23,240
2,010 4353672 489,785
CONTINUED

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA


OATS: ACREAGE

AREA PLANTED 1/ AREA HARVESTED

STATE fonn-nnnnn nena nnn n nnn nee nnn enn eee nen enn en ne een e nen eeenneeen=
1985 1986 1987 1985 : 1986 : 1987
1,000 ACRES
ALA : 80 60 45 35 30 25
ARK : 22 43 22 7 33 18
CALIF: 340 360 380 45 45 40
colo: 115 90 100 55 40 50
GA : 115 60 55 45 35 30
IDAHO: 70 60 65 40 30 36
ILL : 600 1,400 2,100 160 200 190
IND : 180 400 600 110 90 95
IOWA =: ~—-1,600 2,500 4,200 760 630 650
KANS = 235 280 240 188 200 155
KY : 28 35 27 9 6 7
MAINE: 51 47 43 46 40 39
MD : 17 19 21 15 15 19
MICH: 420 330 350 390 270 300
MINN : 1,550 1,600 2,100 1,100 850 800
Mo : 170 190 180 105 100 90
MONT: 225 200 235 70 90 110
NEBR: 550 760 810 420 360 360
NJ : 6 6 6 5 4 5
NY : 270 230 250 230 190 200
NC : 105 100 105 62 55 60
NDAK : 1,175 1,050 1,050 840 700 700
OHIO): 340 260 350 310 160 250
OKLA: 155 200 160 65 100 60
OREG ss: 140 120 90 100 80 60
PA : 320 290 290 300 260 260
SC : 70 55 60 42 28 33
S DAK : 1,900 1,500 1,400 1,420 1,050 1,150
TEX : 1,200 1,000 1,100 300 200 220
UTAH: 26 27 28 13 12 14
VA : 50 40 35 14 10 7
WASH: 70 70 5 33 33 35
WVA: 14 7 13 8 10 8
WIS : 950 1,200 1,300 780 850 800
WYO : 96 92 75 45 54 45
US > 13,255 14,691 17,960 8,177 6,860 6,921

1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED PRECEDING FALL.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-8 NASS, USDA



SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE IND IND IND
1986 1987 1987 1985 1986 1987
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA V/ ; 100 45 40.0 55.0 12,650 4,000 2,475
ARIZ I/ : 12 9 87.0 92.0 1,296 1,044 828
ARK : 660 405 62.0 72.0 66,240 40,920 29,160
CALIF 1/ : 26 20 85.0 85.0 2,988 2,210 1,700
coLo : 300 230 39.0 36.0 11,200 11,700 8,280
GA V/ : 82 90 33.0 50.0 6,624 2,706 4,500
ILL : 200 120 98.0 94.0 36,190 19,000 11,280
KANS : 4,150 3,700 75.0 75.0 296,700 311,250 277,500
KY V/s : 57 38 75.0 75.0 11,440 4,275 2,850
LA 2 350 260 68.0 65.0 27,880 23,800 16,900
MISS : 240 145 60.0 68.0 - 39,680 14,400 9,860
MO : 1,140 770 81.0 85.0 117,030 92,340 65,450
NEBR + 1,570 1,220 89.0 90.0 154,400 139,730 109,800
N MEX z 230 160 45.0 50.0 13,920 10,350 8,000
NC Vv + 45 45 30.0 43.0 3,224 1,350 1,935
OKLA : 490 420 47.0 45.0 22,500 23,030 18,900
sc vi 3 32 25 32.0 47.0 2,209 1,024 1,175
S DAK : 305 280 46.0 47.0 15,000 14,030 13,160
TENN : 165 80 65.0 80.0 37,200 10,725 6,400

TEX : 3,750 2,450 57.0 64.0 241,900 213,750 156,800

71.1 1,120,271 746,953

ARK 5,300 5,200 54,597 55,120 51,740
CALIF 7,700 7,500 28,468 27,727 27,525
LA 4,550 4,350 20,256 19,380 18,270
MISS 5,400 5,300 10,058 10,692
MO VU 5,120 5,400 3,463 3,434
TEX 6,250 5,600 18,071 18,063
us 5,648 134,913 134,416

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
RICE PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

MEDIUM GRAIN SHORT GRAIN

LONG GRAIN

1,000 CWT
1985 : 100,367 28,464 6,082 134,913
1986 97,833 32,239 4,344 134,416
1987 1/: 86,808 35,502 4,509 126,819

1/__ INDICATED OCT 1, 1987, RICE CLASS FORECASTS ARE BASED ON A FIVE YEAR
AVERAGE OF CLASS PERCENTAGES. THE CLASS PERCENTAGES ARE ADJUSTED AS DATA
BECOME AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-22 NASS, USDA



Alabama's harvest finished in mid-July. California's crop suffered from
extreme dryness. Most of Colorado's winter wheat had excellent growing
conditions. Hail, cutworms, and Russian wheat aphids caused some yield
reductions. A cool, early spring delayed maturity of Georgia's crop; harvest
ran well behind average until mid-June. Kansas harvests finished ahead of
schedule in all but west central and northwest areas, where rains and high
humidity hurt mature stands. Diseases, such as leaf rust and tan spot, caused
some yield reductions. An extremely wet seeding season reduced Michigan's
acreage; hot, dry weather during May-June hurt yields. However, harvest
conditions were ideal. Montana growers enjoyed an excellent winter wheat
season despite a dry winter; grasshopper damage was slight. Russian wheat
aphid damage was lighter and more localized than originally expected in
Nebraska. New Jersey's harvest was aided by open weather. Growing conditions
were generally very good in South Dakota. Texas yields held despite a late
spring freeze. Utah's harvest started early; record yields were realized.
Washington's harvest was wrapped up by the end of August, well ahead of
average. Harvest of the Wyoming crop started early in July, progressed
rapidly, finishing by mid-August. Hail and wind damage was minimal; overall,
a good growing season.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production for 1987 is an estimated 449 million bushels

(12.2 million metric tons), down 5 percent from the 1986
Production level. Area for grain harvested is estimated at 13.3 million acres
(5.40 million hectares), 9 percent Jess than last year. Yield per acre
averaged 33.6 bushels, up 1.3 bushels from 1986. All estimating States except
Wisconsin recorded yields equal to or greater than last year.

Most of Colorado's unharvested acreage is in the San Luis Valley where
temperatures are ranging 3 to 4 degrees below normal with adequate soil
Moisture. Despite some rainshowers harvest is Progressing favorably. Good
growing conditions favored growth and development of Montana's crop. Nevada's
yields were better than expected. Harvest conditions were generally favorable
in North Dakota; the entire season ran about a week ahead of average and was
virtually complete by mid-September. South Dakota's crop got off to an early
start and developed faster than normal the entire season. Some areas were too
dry during kernel filling stages. Utah growers encountered few major problems
other than localized pest and weather damage. Harvesting has progressed
quickly; less than 10 percent remained for harvest by early September.
Washington's harvest was nearly complete by the first week in September.
Combining started in late July in Wyoming's spring wheat areas and progressed
rapidly to 80 percent by September 1.

DURUM WHEAT: This year's production is estimated at 95.5 million bushels (2.60

million metric tons), down 2 percent from 1986. Area for grain,
estimated at 3.28 million acres (1.33 million hectares), is up 14 percent from
a year ago to the highest level in 5 years. Yield dropped to 29.1 bushels per
acre, 4.9 bushels less than last year. This more than offset the acreage
increase. North Dakota's yield is 5.0 bushels below 1986; Arizona is the only
other State with a yield less than last year.

Following a good growing season, Arizona's durum harvest finished by
mid-July. Weather generally favored the California crop. Montana's durum
enjoyed good growing conditions this year. Rains were timely; harvest weather
was ideal. Seeding of North Dakota's crop finished ahead of average. A hot,
dry June stressed the crop. Harvest progressed ahead of normal and was
virtually complete by September 20, about a week ahead of average. South
Dakota's crop got off to an early start and progressed ahead of normal through
harvest. Yields were a little lower than expected.

RYE: Production for 1987 is estimated at 19.1 million bushels (485 thousand

metric tons), off 2 percent from last year. Harvested area totals 673
thousand acres (272 thousand hectares), 1 percent less than 1986. Yields
averaged 28.4 bushels per acre, 0.4 of a bushel below last year.

Low soil moisture hurt Georgia's rye. Crop development and harvest ran
ahead of average in North Dakota. South Carolina's harvest started in late
May. Yields are up from last year's drought-stressed crop. The rye crop
matured early in South Dakota; harvest finished well ahead of normal.
Virginia growers got record yields.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-2 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

Oct 3, 1987

Rati
ST {3 10%. GENERALLY ENDIeaT IVE GY
aRE DEPICTED

WOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY on patoinery por |

DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)
MODERATE Oct 3, 1987 ISSUED TWICE A MONTH
4
Oiees ner wwe
ry ‘MOIST:
EXTREME
PUNE MODERATE * TRE ME s
“SEVER!
a SF ioenave
x t
Bax hitetra:es EXTREME EVERE
‘MoI8T.
DROUGT SEVERITY INDEX, (PALMER) :nerICTe, rao Geese MODERATE
‘RESPONDS SLONLY; CHANGES LITTLE FROW WEEK TO WEEK 3 MOIST:
{Bib DEEP bencpuation, an WELL a8 svarornansptnat iGo fo .
Durnisé on tetias Gu ATER SUASETT VY oOROMIES/beSfonst fee Dro
Tehw STaTUS OF CUTER SODPLIEG IN AQUIVERS REGERVOFRS,<xD ETKEANE
LIMITATIONS. 18 NOT GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SHONT TER (YE¥ WEEKS: WOAM/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY
FIELD OPEAATions (Tate 1m iNDLCATED BY THE CROP MOISTURE TRDEZ) sedn rniney wer
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-3

NASS, USDA



155

ARK Vv 35 109 105

CALIF 1,080 6,695 7,128 7,370
colo : 770 2,706 23618 23800
conn 1s: 20 62 57 52
DEL vy 3 7 27 ral 27
IDAHO 2 1,100 3,570 4,180 3,978
ILL : 630 3,280 2,583 2,255
IND : 400 3,599 13400 13443
10WA > 1,600 5,813 6,080 5,460
KANS : 900 3,705 3,510 3,040
KY : 255 900 816
LAs 12 39 32 32
MAINE T/ : 23 68 54 50
MD Vy : 80 300 248 327
MASS Is? 29 87 90 90
MICH > 1,400 5,040 040 3,894
MINN : 1,950 6,023 7,605 5,950
MO : 420 1,350 1,260 1,200
MONT : 1,300 3,7)0 2,990 3,100
NEBR > 14350 4,760 43658 45375,
NEV : 240 964 984 1,078
NH WV : 21 58 59 59
NJ: 43 168 146 148
N MEX : 240 1,300 1,200 1,272
NY : 880 2,604 23508 23604
NC Wo: 30. 108 60 70
N DAK Hy 1,550 2,100 3,255 3,255
OHIO : 730 2,800 2,701 2,683
OKLA 3 430 1,560 1,505 1,560
OREG : 460 1,823 1932 1,600
PA : 840 2,772 21688 23635
RI Wyo: 3 8 9 5
S DAK z 2,500 3,230 6,250 5,170
TENN 1/ : 100 456 300 378
TEX t 160 893 640 630
UTAH : 470 1,794 1,833 1,860
Woo: 115 300 288 263
VA yy : 110 264 264 347
WASH Hy 470 1,755 1,974 1,890
WVA Tf 3 90 330 225 192
WIS > 3,150 9,920 9,450 11,520
wy : 600 968 15500 1,560
us t 26, 748 85,048

l/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
LENTILS

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-28 NASS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED 1/
crop : 4 : : INDICATED
: 1986 : 1987 : 1986 : 1987

1,000 ACRES

CORN 76,674 66,024 69,189 59,553
SORGHUM 15,321 11,771 13,904 10,512
RICE 2,401.0 2,344.0 2,380.0 2,318.0
SOYBEANS 2/ 60,385 58,685 58,292 57,559
PEANUTS 1,572.7 1,527.0 1,537.2 1,517.0
SUNFLOWER 2/ 2,025 1,725 1,955 1,677
ALL COTTON 10,044.6 10,415.7 8,468.4 10,004.9
UPLAND 9,933.1 10, 286.7 8,357.3 9,877.1
AMER-PIMA 111.5 129.0 11.1 127.8
ALL HAY 62,274 60,203
ALFALFA 26,748 25,497
ALL OTHER 35,526 34,706
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1,673.8 1,761.8 1,495.0 1,685.4
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 180.0 163.0 179.0 161.0
AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS 32.0 42.0 31.5 33.0
LENTILS 159.0 143.0 158.0 142.0
TOBACCO 581.9 601.9
SUGARBEETS 1,231.7 1,268.2 1,191.3 1,248.3
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED 796.2 828.3

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/ 1986 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP INDICATED
1986 1987 1/ 1986 1987 1/
1,000 ACRES
FLAXSEED 720 485 683 466
POTATOES

WINTER 2/ 12.5 11.9 12.3 11.7
SPRING 77.4 81.8 75.9 78.5
SUMMER 102.2 102.8 95.2 99.3
FALL 1,065.1 1,105.9 1,036.2 1,086.5
TOTAL 2/ 1,257.2 1,302.4 1,219.6 1,276.0
SWEETPOTATOES. 97.1 96.6 93.4 93.6
HOPS 25.0 28.5

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1987 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION,
OCTOBER 1987 A~4

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
NASS, USDA



DRY PEAS: Production of dry peas (excluding seed and Austrian Winter peas) is

estimated at 3.39 million cwt (154 thousand metric tons), up 6
percent from last year. Area harvested is set at 161 thousand acres (65.2
thousand hectares), a decline of 10 percent. The average yield of 2102 pounds
per acre is 18 percent above last year.

AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS totaled 522 thousand cwt (23.7 thousand metric tons),
a gain of 16 percent from 1986. Harvested area of 33.0 thousand acres (13.4
thousand hectares) is up 5 percent; while the average yield of 1582 pounds per
acre gained 117 percent.

LENTILS: Pacific Northwest growers produced 1.79 million cwt (81.4 thousand
metric tons) of lentils this year, down 5 percent from 1986.

Harvest area, at 142 thousand acres (57.5 thousand hectares), dropped 10

percent from 1986; the average yield gained 5 percent to 1263 pounds per acre.

WINTER POTATOES, REVISED: Winter potatoes totaled 2.50 million cwt (113 thou-

sand metric tons) in 1987, down 16 percent from 1986
and 7 percent below 1985. This is 10 percent below the last forecast as of
March 1 this year. The California crop did not turn out as well as expected.
Harvested area is set at 11.7 thousand acres (4730 hectares), down 5 percent
from 1986 and 11 percent below 1985. The average yield came in at 214 cwt per
acre, down 12 percent from last year but 5 percent above 1985.

TOBACCO: U.S. atl tobacco production is forecast at 1.23 billion pounds (560

thousand metric tons), slightly above the September 1 forecast and 6
percent above 1986. Higher yields and increased acreage from 1986 account for
the larger production. Yield is expected to average 2051 pounds per acre
compared with 1998 for last year's crop.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 683 million pounds (310 thousand
metric tons), 6 percent more than 1986 production. Yield per acre is expected
to average 2099 pounds, 8 pounds above last year. Acres for harvest are above
year ago levels in all States.

North Carolina's fiue-cured harvest was 91 percent complete on October 4,
the same as on the comparable data a year ago. Marketings are behind a year
earlier in the Eastern and Old and Middle Belts because of a later starting
date. South Carolina's harvest was virtually complete by mid-September.

Burley output is expected to reach 467 million pounds (212 thousand metric
tons), up 14 percent from 1986. The higher production is the combined result
of a 7 percent increase in acreage and higher yields. The yield is forecast
to average 2071 pounds per acre, 135 pounds above the previous year's average.

The Kentucky burley crop was 97 percent housed by September 27. Stripping
was underway on some farms. In Tennessee, the crop was virtually all in the
barn and about ready to begin stripping.

Fire-cured production jis forecast at 25.3 million pounds (11.5 thousand
metric tons), a decline of 39 percent from a year earlier. Lower acreage
allotments, coupled with a 131 pound drop in yield ta 1827 pounds per acre,
are causing the sizeable drop in production.

Southern Maryland type 32 production is projected to be down from the
August 1 forecast due mainly to dry weather. Production is estimated at 23.2
million pounds (10.5 thousand metric tons), 16 percent below last year. Fewer
acres for harvest in Maryland and reduced yield prospects in both Maryland and
Pennsyivania account for the drop.

Dark air-cured tobacco production is expected to total 7.32 million pounds
(3320 metric tons), down 34 percent from a year ago. Dry conditions hurt late
set acreage.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-10 NASS, USDA



In the northern States, development of the crop was ahead of normal
throughout the growing season with generally adequate soil moisture and warm
weather, Condition of the crop has been good to excellent. Harvest was
beginning at a normal pace in the Dakotas and was about a week ahead of
schedule in Minnesota on October 1.

U.S. ALL COTTON PRODUCTION

Ocr0mER 1967

COTTON: All cotton production is forecast at 13.3 million bales, 37 percent

above the 1986 crop and 4 percent above the September 1 forecast. The
Upland production forecast is for 13.1 million bales and American-Pima produc-
tion is expected to total a record high 228 thousand bales. Total area for
harvest is estimated at 10.0 million acres (4.05 million hectares), up 18
percent from last year and unchanged from September 1. Yields are expected to
average a record high 640 pounds per harvested acre, up 88 pounds per acre
fron 1986 and 10 pounds per acre above the previous record high established in
985.

In Texas and Oklahoma, Upland production is forecast at 4.22 million
bales, up 54 percent from last year and 9 percent above the September 1
forecast. A record yield is expected in Texas and Oklahoma.

The Texas Plains crop continued to benefit from open weather during the
month. Harvest continued active in the Blacklands, central and east Texas.
Ginning is near completion in the Coastal Bend and Rio Grande Valley.
September growing conditions were also favorable for Oklahoma cotton.

Producers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
and Tennessee) expect to harvest 4.32 million bales, 41 percent above last
year and 2 percent above the September 1 forecast. Near ideal growing and
harvesting conditions existed in the region. Record yields are expected in
Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 3.56 million bales of Upland cotton, up 19 percent from last
year and 1 percent above September 3. Record yields are expected in Arizona
and ‘California.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-8 NASS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

YIELD PRODUCTION

STATE teen nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn ne nn nen nn nnn nnn nn nner nn nnn nnn ne nen n tenn ee nnne

1985 1986 1985 1986 1987

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 32.0 26.0 31.0 12,800 5,720 5,270
ARIZ : 90.0 94.0 95.0 5,940 4,512 4,180
ARK : 32.0 41.0 41.0 18,240 33,415 34,440
CALIF : 82.0 75.0 76.0 61,500 45,000 36,480
COLO : 39.0 32.0 37.5 134,550 92,800 93,750
DEL : 48.0 45.0 42.0 2,064 1,530 2,016
FLA : 33.0 31.0 30.0 4,290 3,100 1,800
GA > 31.0 28.0 31.0 25,575 15,400 14,260
IDAHO =: 53.0 61.0 75.0 46,110 51,850 60,000
TLL : 49.0 44.0 59.0 36,750 36,080 56,050
IND : $3.0 43.0 58.0 37,100 30,100 34,800
IOWA : 48.0 28.0 38.0 5,376 1,680 1,140
KANS : 38.0 33.0 37.0 433,200 336,600 366 , 300
KY > 34.0 33.0 49.0 10,540 8,910 16,170
LA : 34.0 35.0 31.0 7,140 7,350 5,270
MD : 49.0 47.0 49.0 6,517 6,815 8,085
MICH : 60.0 45.0 48.0 45,000 30,600 19,200
MINN : 37.0 33.0 33.0 10,360 4,290 2,970
MISS : 31.0 31.0 36.0 9,300 6,200 12,600
MO : 39.0 33.0 46.0 49,920 18,810 35,420
MONT : 16.0 32.0 36.0 22,400 64,000 79,200
NEBR : 39.0 38.0 44.0 89,700 76,000 85,800
NEV : 80.0 90.0 90.0 720 810 630
NJ : 52.0 43.0 45.0 1,924 1,290 1,215
N MEX : 36.0 22.0 32.0 20,520 10,120 10,880
NY : 58.0 49.0 47.0 8,410 7,595 3,760
NC : 29.0 33.0 41.0 22,040 15,180 18,040
N DAK : 35.0 29.0 32.0 15,750 13,920 5,920
OHIO : 62.0 46.0 58.0 58,900 48,300 46,400
OKLA : 30.0 29.0 27.0 165,000 150,800 129,600
OREG : 54.0 58.0 66.0 51,840 53,940 49,500
PA 48.0 44.0 43.0 10,080 9,680 7,955
sc 29.0 25.0 38.0 12,470 7,500 10,450
S DAK 29.0 32.0 34.0 44,080 57,600 55,080
TENN : 32.0 33.0 41.0 8,000 10,725 14,350
TEX : 32.0 25.0 28.0 187,200 120,000 100,800
UTAH : 32.0 36.0 38.0 7,040 8,100 6,270
VA 37.0 41.0 45.0 10,545 6,970 9,675
WASH 48.0 49.0 57.0 115,200 102,900 104,025
WVA 43.0 44.0 45.0 344 396 495
WIS 58.0 57.0 54.0 8,120 7,410 3,240
Wyo 22.0 30.0 30.0 5,060 7,500 7,500
US : 38.1 35.2 39.7 1,827,615 1,521,498 1,560,986
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-15 NASS, USDA



OTHER SPRING WHEAT

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

STATE pa-nnnneeee eee nn nnn nnn nnn cee ee eee eee meee een nen nnne
1985 1986 1987 1985 1986 1987
yO 1,000 ACRES .
colo: 74 60 60 72 55 55
IDAHO =: 500 480 350 480 460 340
MINN: 2,450 2,750 2,450 2,370 2,650 2,400
MONT : 3,000 2,700 2,400 2;400 22600 2;300
NEV: 7 15 16 15 13 14
N DAK : 5,850 6,500 6,200 5,730 6,400 6,100
OREG =: 110 100 65 105 95 60
S DAK =: 2,230 2,100 1,850 2,150 1,980 1,800
UTAH: a4 35 32 40 33 30
WASH =: ~~ 300 320 200 290 310 190
WIS: 20 20 30 7 18 28
WO: 21 29 29 18 27 26
US =: 14,616 15,109 13,682 13,687 14,641 13,343
YIELD : PRODUCTION

>

coLo 66.0 66.0 66.0 4,752 3,630
IDAHO 54.0 65.0 70.0 25,920 23,800
MINN 55.0 37.0 41.0 130,350 98,400
MONT 11.0 27.0 29.0 26,400 66,700
NEV 70.0 70.0 75.0 1,050 1,050
N DAK 37.0 31.0 31.0 212,010 198,400 189,100
OREG 40.0 47.0 57.0 4,200 4,465 3,420
S_ DAK 30.0 25.0 27.0 64,500 49,500 48,600
UTAH 40.0 50.0 53.0 1,600 1,650 1,590
WASH 45.0 45.0 54.0 13,050 13,950 10,260
WIS 40.0 35.0 33.0 680 630 924
WYO 26.0 35.0 40.0 468 945 1,040
US 35.4 32.3 33.6 484 ,980 472,230 448,514
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-17 NASS, USDA


SMALL GRAINS - ANNUAL SUMMARY
AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED, UNITED STATES
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP Perret tern cre nce enn nen nen rte eee ee ne enn ee nee een e ence eeene
: 1985 : 1986 : 1987 : 1985 : 1986 : 1987
HECTARES

OATS : 5,364,170 5,945,300 7,268,230 3,309,150 2,776,170 2,800,860
BARLEY : 5,324,100 5,284,850 4,470,210 4,695,620 4,859,110 4,055,800
ALL WHEAT : 30,584,450 29,165,200 26,630,220 26,197,200 24,573,990 22,627,840
WINTER : 23,371,660 21,839,100 19,741,180 19,406,100 17,484,630 15,901,080
DURUM : 1,297,840 1,211,640 1,352,070 1,252,110 1,164,290 1,326,980
OTH SPRING: 5,914,950 6,114,460 5,536,970 5,538,990 5,925,070 5,399,780
RYE : 1,037,220 964,780 1,004,850 290,160 273,980 272,360

YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE : PRODUCTIO
CROP 0 penn nnn nnn anne nnn anne nnn wenn nnn anne en nee ne nen eee ene enn ne eee
1985 1986 1987 1985 1986 1987

METRIC TONS =ts—i<“‘“C Cé‘i‘C;i‘C;‘;*~*:!

OATS : 2.28 2.02 1.91 7,559,390 5,607,940 5,359,270
BARLEY 1 2.74 2.74 2.78 12,875,840 13,292,550 11,280,820
ALL WHEAT =: 2.52 2.32 2.53 66,000,540 56,924,970 57,287,820
WINTER 2.56 2.37 2.67 49,739,530 41,408,390 42,483,080
DURUM 2 2.45 2.29 1.96 3,062,020 2,664,590 2,598,190
OTH SPRING: 2.38 2.17 2.26 13,198,990 12,851,990 12,206,550
RYE : 1.81 1.81 1.78 524,200 495,880 485,110
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-3 NASS, USDA


SMALL GRAINS

OATS: Production of oats in 1987 is estimated at 369 million bushels (5.36

million metric tons), 4 percent below the 1986 crop and the smallest
oat crop since 1876. The area harvested, at 6.92 million acres (2.80 million
hectares) is up 1 percent from last year.

The yield for grain averaged 53.3 bushels per acre, down 3.0 bushels from
last year's yield of 56.3 bushels.

Seeded area totaled 18.0 million acres (7.27 million hectares) in 1987, up
22 percent from the 1986 planted acres. Oats were used as a cover crop on the
government program acres, accounting for most of the increase in plantings.
Acres abandoned and used for purposes other than grain accounted for 61
percent of the total acreage compared with 53 percent in 1986.

Planting of the oat crop in the major producing north-central States was
completed well ahead of schedule. Crop development progressed ahead of normal
during the growing season. Hot, dry weather lowered yields in 3 of the 5
major States, especially on late plantings. Harvest was completed ahead of
normal. Wisconsin experienced some rust and leaf virus problems. Yields were
up sharply in the Southeastern States from the drought reduced levels of
1986. Minnesota's yield, at 54 bushels, was up 3 bushels from last year and
South Dakota's, at 46 bushels, was up 2 bushels. Iowa's yield, at 55 bushels,
was down 7 bushels; Wisconsin--54 bushels--down 8; and North Dakota--50
bushets--down 5.

BARLEY: Barley production in 1987 is estimated at 518 million bushels (11.3
million metric tons), 15 percent below last year's crop. Average
yield per acre is 51.7 bushels, up 0.9 of a bushel from the 1986 yield.

The area harvested for grain in 1987 totals 10.0 million acres (4.06
million hectares), down 17 percent from last year.

Barley seeding in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Montana was completed ahead
of normal. Crop development progressed ahead of schedule although moisture
was lacking in the Dakotas and Minnesota. Harvest was completed ahead of
normal in these States, but the hot, dry weather resulted in lower yields than
in 1986. Montana, Oregon, and Washington had ample rainfall and good growing
conditions resulting in higher yields than last year.

ALL WHEAT: Production for 1987 is estimated at 2.10 billion bushels (57.3 mil-

lion metric tons), up 1 percent from last year's production level.
The harvest was taken from a total of 55.9 million acres (22.6 million
hectares), down 8 percent from 1986, and the lowest level since 1973. Yields
averaged 37.6 bushels per acre, up 3.2 bushels per acre from 1986.

WINTER WHEAT: The Nation's growers produced a 1987 crop estimated at 1.56 bil-

lion bushels (42.5 million metric tons), 3 percent more than in
1986. Area for grain is estimated at 39.3 million acres (15.9 million
hectares), down 9 percent from last year. Yields averaged 39.7 bushels per
acre, the third highest of record, 4.5 bushels more than in 1986. Most State
yields were higher than last season, some at record levels. Only Delaware,
Florida, Louisiana, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin failed to
at least equal 1986 yields.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-7 NASS, USDA



ALL HAY

AREA HARVESTED YIELO PRODUCTION

STATE IND
1986 : 1987 : 1987
1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
ALA : 700 700 1.60 2.40 1,540 1,120 1,680
ARIZ : 177 180 7.13 7.08 1,109 1,262 1,275
ARK : 955 985 2.04 1.83 1,819 1,945 1,801
CALIF : 1,680 1,610 5.14 5.37 7,991 8,628 8,645
coLo : 1,410 1,500 2.58 2.57 3,644 3,642 3,850
CONN 1/ : 86 85 2.43 2.18 184 209 185
DEL =1/ 23 24 2.17 2.38 59 50 57
FLA W/o: 260 275 2.60 2.60 624 676 715
GA : 530 570 1.70 2.30 1,238 901 1,311
IDAHO : 1,400 1,270 3.37 3.47 4,080 4,720 4,403
ILL > 1,100 1,000 3.33 3.29 4,072 3,664 3,290
IND : 780 790 2.87 2.99 2,485 2,236 2,363
IOWA : 2,400 1,900 3.33 3.53 7,133 8,000 6,710
KANS : 2,500 2,300 2.56 2.56 6,675 6,390 5,890
KY : 1,795 2,160 2.00 2.08 4,100 3,588 4,494
LA : 300 360 2.60 2.60 741 781 937
MAINE 1/ 225 225 1.99 2.04 421 448 460
MD : 225 235 2.26 2.77 664 509 650
MASS T/  : 127 127 2.56 2.48 278 325 315
MICH : 1,770 1,500 3.24 2.96 5,705 5,743 4,438
MINN : 2,850 2,625 3.39 2.97 8,003 9,675 7,800
MISS : 580 530 2.00 2.50 1,300 1,160 1,325
MO : 3,400 3,400 1.77 1.81 6,513 6,028 6,150
MONT : 2,250 2,190 1.92 1.98 2,760 4,320 4,335
NEBR : 3,350 2,800 2.17 2.23 6,755 7,258 6,235
NEV : 520 515 2.65 2.77 1,302 1,376 1,429
NH W/o: 87 87 2.28 2.28 204 198 198
NJ Yee 115 112 2.58 2.67 333 297 299
N MEX 310 310 4.25 4.49 1,436 1,319 1,391
NY 2,200 2,230 2.40 2.39 5,269 5,280 5,334
NC 430 435 1.40 1.67 712 573 726
N DAK 3,100 2,900 1.75 1.77 3,768 5,425 5,145
OHIO 1,460 1,450 2.95 2.98 4,600 4,307 4,314.
OKLA 1,980 1,800 2.17 2.50 4,790 4,295 4,500
OREG : 1,110 1,090 2.82 2.64 2,989 3,134 2,877
PA : 2,000 2,030 2.56 2.46 5,302 5,124 4,995
RI Wyo: 9 8 2.56 2.25 21 23 18
sc 205 225 7.60 2.40 492 328 540
S DAK : 4,700 4,150 1.99 1.77 4,830 9,330 7,330
TENN : 1,380 1,705 1.52 2.00 3,156 2,092 3,418
TEX : 3,260 3,140 2.29 2.49 8,175 7,460 7,830
UTAH : 625 615 3.42 3.51 2,084 2,135 2,160
VT Woo: 440 430 2.13 2.16 950 938 929
VA : 1,110 1,220 1.32 1.63 1,644 1,464 1,991
WASH : 830 750 3.46 3.48 2,595 2,874 2,610
WVA : 570 630 1.41 1.53 1,230 801 962
WIS : 3,680 3,750 2.93 3.44 11,120 10,775 12,895
WYO : 1,300 1,280 1.88 1.96 1,706 2,445 2,512
us 62,274 60,203 2.49 2.55 148,601 155,271 153,717
1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-26 NASS, USDA



SMALL GRAINS - ANNUAL SUMMARY
AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED, UNITED STATES
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

C0 a
1985 1986 1987 1985 1986 1987
1,000 ACRES

OATS 13,255 14,691 17,960 8,177 6,860 6,921
BARLEY 13,156 13,059 11,046 11,603 12,007 10,022
ALL WHEAT 75,575 72,068 65,804 64,734 60,723 55,914
WINTER 57,752 53,965 48,781 47,953 43,205 39,292
DURUM 3,207 23994 3,341 3,094 2,877 3,279
OTH SPRING 14,616 15,109 13,682 13,687 14,647 13,343

RYE 2,563 2,384

2,483 717 677 673

YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE PRODUCTION

CROP AND UNIT

1,000
OATS BU 63.7 56.3 53.3 520,800 386,356 369,224
BARLEY " 51.0 50.8 51.7 591,383 610,522 518,124
ALL WHEAT " 37.5 34.4 37.6 2,425,105 2,091,635 2,104,967

WINTER " 38.1 35.2 39.7 1,827,615 1,521,498 1,560,986

DURUM " 36.4 34.0 29.1 112,510 97,907 95,467

OTH SPRING 35.4 32.3 33.6 484,980 472,230 448,514
RYE « 28.8 28.8 28.4 20,637 19,522 19,098

APPROVED: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD:
Richard D. Alten, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

Robert L. Addison, Robert L. Griffith,

Charles H. Allen, Craig M. Hayes,

(Knot Lens

dack L. Aschwege,
Coen T. Barnes,
Thomas R. Birkett,
James E. Brewster,
Arvin R. Budge,
Homer L. Carter,
William N. Dowdy,
S. Radley Edwards,
Thomas W. Feurer,
Dennis S. Findley,
Robert L. Freie,
Robert A. Graham,

Carol C. House,
Clifton 0. James,
Doyle C. Johnson,
Lawrence H. Pope,
William lL. Pratt,
Darwin E. Ransom,
Brenda G. Riggins,
Carrol] G. Rock,
Vaughn L. Siegenthaler,
Charles A. Van Lahr,
John H. Waldrop,
Paul M, Williamson,

John D. Witzig.
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION,

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-2

NASS, USDA



The New York grape forecast is 174 thousand tons, up 3 percent from the
September 1 forecast and 6 percent above the 1986 crop. Growers report this
has been one of the dampest harvesting seasons in many years, a primary cause
of bunch rot that is being experienced in many New York State vineyards.
Sugar content has been reported low due to the lack of full sunshine.

Pennsylvania's forecast of 60.0 thousand tons of grapes jis unchanged from
both the September 1 forecast and the 1986 final production. Growers are
concerned that too much rain during September caused some rotting on vines as
well as mildew problems. However, after rain delayed harvest, few weather or
insect problems were encountered. Michigan's grape production of 58.0
thousand tons is 5 percent above the September 1 forecast and 81 percent above
last year's frost-damaged crop. Concord harvesting is about 50 percent
complete. The crop is reported as looking excellent. Brix and size are both
good with harvesting to be complete by mid-October.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: California's prune production (dried basis) is forecast at
200 thousand tons (181 thousand metric tons), unchanged
from the September | forecast but more than double the 1986 crop.

Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington
is forecast at 53.6 thousand tons (48.6 thousand metric tons), unchanged from
the September 3 forecast but 14 percent more than 1986. Harvest is complete
in Michigan and Washington, The crop in Michigan had good size and quality.

PAPAYAS: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is forecast at 5.40 million

pounds (2450 metric tons) in October. Increases are anticipated for
the 2 following months: November production is forecast at 6.00 million
pounds (2720 metric tons) and 6.10 million pounds (2770 metric tons) are
forecast for December. ~ Output in January 1988 is expected to decline to 5.80
million pounds (2630 metric tons).

September's fresh utilization is estimated at 4.88 million pounds (2210
metric tons), 3 percent higher than August and 56 percent more than last
September. Year-to-date sales were 8 percent greater than the same 9-month
period in 1986. Crop area in September totaled 4000 acres (1620 hectares), 2
percent higher than August and 1 percent above last September. Area
harvested, down 1 percent from August, totaled 2405 acres (970 hectares).
This is 3 percent more than September 1986.

PECANS: The October 1 forecast for the U.S. all pecan crop is 291 million
pounds (132 thousand metric tons), in-shell basis, 7 percent higher
than last year's production and 19 percent above the 1985 crop.

The Georgia forecast is 125 million pounds, 4 percent above 1986 produc-
tion. A good crop is in prospect for 1987, both in terms of quality and
volume. Alabama's forecast of 25.0 million pounds is 56 percent above last
year. The crop has been hurt in many areas by dry weather, but major
producing counties expect the best crop in 3 years. Florida’s estimate
remains at 5.50 million pounds, unchanged from last year. Louisiana's
forecast is 20.0 million pounds, down one-third from the 1986 crop. Harvest
got underway near the end of September. The Mississippi crop is placed at
9.00 million pounds, 20 percent above last year. New Mexico pecans are
forecast at 29.0 million pounds, up 7 percent from last year. Some areas
experienced spring-freeze damage, but major producing areas were unaffected,
Oklahoma's crop is forecast at 15.0 million pounds, the same as 1986.
Frequent rains have been a hindrance for timely spraying, resulting in
increased levels of weevil and predator damage. South Carolina's pecan
production is forecast at 7.50 million pounds, a 15 percent increase from
1986. Conditions for a good crop continued through September with nuts
filling out to normal size due to late rains. The Texas forecast is 50.0
million pounds, 25 percent above 1986 production. The pecan crop matured
during September due to the rainfall in many locations. Harvest began in
south Texas in late September.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-13 NASS, USDA



CITRUS FRUIT 1/

PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
: BOXES TON EQUIVALENT
CROP aaa aaa aia
AND H UTILIZED UTILIZED
STATE = tee een cc ccennrene NDICATED: NDICATED

1985-86 : 1986-87 1987-88 1987-88
1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES,EARLY MID
& NAVEL 3/:
ARIZ : 600 950 750 23 36 28
CALIF : 33,000 34,500 26,000 1,238 1,294 975
FLA : 64,200 65,800 72,000 2,889 2,961 3,240
TEX : 200 500 850 9 22 36
us 2 98,000 101,750 99,600 4,159 4,313 4,279
ORANGES, VALENCIA
ARIZ : 1,700 2,200 2,300 64 83 86
CALIF : 20,900 24,000 23,000 784 900 863
FLA : 55,000 53,900 58,000 2,475 2,425 2,610
TEX : 110 375 500 5 16 21
US : 77,710 80,475 83,800 3,328 3,424 3,580
ALL ORANGES :
ARIZ : 2,300 3,150 3,050 86 119 114
CALIF : 53,900 58,500 49,000 2,022 2,194 1,838
FLA : 119,200 119,700 130,000 5,364 5,386 5,850
TEX : 310 875 1,350 14 38 57
us : 175,710 =182,225 183,400 7,487 7,737 7,859
TEMPLES :
FLA : 2,950 3,400 3,400 133 153 153
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE 3
SEEDLESS
FLA : 25,600 26,900 27,000 1,088 1,143 1,148
GRAPEFRUIT, COLORED:
SEEDLESS 2
FLA 18,000 20,000 20,500 765 850 871
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
3,150 2,900 3,500 134 123 149
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
: 2,400 2,200 2,100 77 70 67
Chute As:
DESERT : 3,600 4,200 4,200 115 134 134
OTHER AREAS : 4,500 4,900 151 164
TOTAL 2 8,100 9,100 266 298
FLA z 46,750 49,800 51,000 1,987 2,116 2,168
TEX : 220 1,925 3,100 9 77 124
US 2 57,470 63,025 2,339 2,561
TANGERINES 2
ARIZ : 700 700 500 26 26 19
CALIF 2 1,800 2,230 1,500 68 83 56
FLA 5/ 2 1,950 2,340 2,200 93 11 105
U 5/ 3 4,450 5,270 4,200 187 220 180
LEMONS :
ARIZ : 3,250 7,100 5,200 123 270 198
CALIF : 15,100 21,500 18,500 574 817 703
U 18,350 28,600 23,700 697 1,087 90
TANGELOS
FL 2,950 4,000 4,000 133 180 180

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH
YEAR HARVEST IS COMPLETED. 2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ~-75, FLA-
90, TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF OTHER-67, FLA-85, TEX-80;
LEMONS-76; TANGELOS & TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95. 3/ NAVEL
AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. EARLY AND MIDSEASON
VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEX. 4/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT "OTHER AREAS" WILL BE AS OF
APR 1. 5/__ PER PROGRAM MODIFICATION FLA ALL TANGERINES INCLUDE HONEY
TANGERINES BEGINNING WITH 1987-88 SEASON. ESTIMATES FOR PREVIOUS SEASONS ARE
REVISED TO INCLUDE THE HONEY VARIETY.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-34 NASS, USDA



SORGHUM: Production is forecast at 747 million bushels (19.0 million metric

tons), down 21 percent from 1986 and 1 percent less than September 1.
Harvested area remains at 10.5 million acres (4.25 million hectares), 24
percent less than last year. Yields averaged a record high 71.1 bushels per
acre. This is 3.4 bushels per acre more than last year.

As of October 4, 82 percent of the crop was mature in the major producing
States compared with 75 percent last year. Harvest had moved to 48 percent
completion, 12 points ahead of 1986 and 9 points ahead of average. Oklahoma
and Texas are the only States that trail average harvest progress.

Showers and cool weather have slowed Colorado's crop progress. Most of
the Kansas harvest progress has been in the eastern third of the State;
scattered light frosts occurred last weekend. Louisiana's harvest is
virtually complete. Nebraska's sorghum is maturing two weeks ahead of normal;
the crop is rated mostly good to excellent. Recent rains have delayed
Progress in Oklahoma; the Panhandle and central district sustained light hai
damage. Sorghum in the Plains area of Texas looks good as maturity
approaches. September rains helped late sorghum but slowed harvest in mature

jelds.

RICE: Rice production is forecast at 127 million hundredweight (5.75 million

metric tons), 6 percent below the 134 million hundredweight (6.10
million metric tons) produced in 1986. The production forecast is unchanged
from September 1. This would be the smallest crop produced since 1977, except
when the PIK program was in effect in 1983.

Yield is expected to average 5471 pounds per acre, 177 pounds less than in
1986. In both Arkansas and Mississippi, yield is expected to decline 100
pounds from last year. A 200 pound decrease is registered in both California
and Louisiana, Texas yield is expected to drop 650 pounds per acre from
1986. Yield estimates were unchanged from September 1 in all States.

Near the end of September rice harvest was 75 percent finished, 16 points
above the average. Harvest of the first crop was finished in Texas and neared
completion in Louisiana. California harvest got underway around midmonth and
was 8 points ahead of normal at months' end. Arkansas' harvest was 79- percent
finished, compared with 80 percent in 1986 and 53 percent, normally.

SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at 1.97 billion bushels (53.6 million metric

tons), up 1 percent from both the September 1 forecast and last
year. Yield is forecast at 34.2 bushels per acre, up 0.2 of a bushel from
September 1, and 0.9 of a bushel more than 1986. If realized, this will be
the highest yield of record, slightly more than the 1985 yield of 34.1 bushels
per acre.

Growing conditions were generally good west of the Mississippi River
during September. Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Nebraska showed
increases in yield from September 1. Yield increases were also recorded in
South Carolina and Virginia as rain helped improve the condition of late
maturing soybeans.

Dry weather hurt yields from Mississippi and Alabama to Michigan.
Alabama, Kentucky, and Mississippi reduced yield 2 bushels per acre and
Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Tennessee dropped 17 bushel per acre from
September 1.

Harvest has been progressing rapidly as 44 percent of the soybeans had
been combined by October 4, 24 points more than the 5-year average. Illinois,
Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa had 70, 68, 68, and 60 percent of their acres
harvested, respectively, on October 4.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-6 NASS, USDA



ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

: 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT

LARGE LIMA 3
CALIF z 18.5 21.5 2,080 2,100 931 385 452

BABY LIMA :

CALIF : 29.5 23.0 2,200 2,350 674 649 541

OTHER :

A CALIF z 107.0 121.5 1,720 1,800 1,958 1,840 2,187
CALIF : 155.0 166.0 1,854 1,916 3,563 2,874 3,180
coLo 3 185.0 180.0 1,460 1,450 2,665 2,701 2,610
LOAHO : 139.0 148.0 1,960 1,900 2,006 2,724 2,812
KANS 2st 23.0 24.0 1,650 1,700 272 380 408
MICH : 340.0 460.0 800 =1,100 5,412 2,720 5,060
MINN : 61.0 75.0 1,650 1,600 868 1,007 1,200
MONT as: 4.5 6.6 2,160 1,750 57 97 98
NEBR : 205.0 200.0 2,100 1,750 2,794 4,305 3,500
N MEX fi 11.0 2,470 272
NY t 31.0 28.0 1,400 1,450 297 434 406
N_DAK t 280.0 315.0 1,550 1,350 3,010 4,340 4,253
UTAH 2h: 8.5 6.8 4380 550 40 4y 37
WASH : 31.0 35.0 2,160 2,250 710 670 788
WYO : 32.0 31.0 1,890 1,890 481 605 586
us 2 1,495.0 1,685.4 1,832 1,496 22,175 22,898 §=25,210

1/__ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR
CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 3/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1987 CROP.

WINTER POTATOES

AREA PLANTED

AREA anvesTeD

CALIF
FLA
TOTAL

1,000 CWT
CALIF : 290 235 1,479 1,083
FLA : 210 200 1512 13420
TOTAL : 243 214 2,991 2,501

0.0 . .
0.0 107.0 109.0 106.0
0.0

TOAHO

WASH

us

17° EXCLUDES BOTH WRINKLED SEED PEAS AND AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-29 NASS, USDA


ALL WHEAT: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

YIELD : PRODUCTION
STATE -n--2en--n nena nnn nnn nee nee nee ene een nee n een nee eee n ns
1985 1986 1987 1985 1986 1987
BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA : 32.0 26.0 31.0 12,800 5,720 5,270
ARIZ =: 87.5 90.5 89.9 9,804 8,688 8,005
ARK : 32.0 41.0 41.0 18,240 33,415 34,440
CALIF : 83.0 76.3 77.5 68,860 51,525 41,610
COLO: «39.6 32.6 38.1 139, 302 96,430 97,380
DEL : 48.0 45.0 42.0 2,064 1,530 25016
FLA 33.0 31.0 30.0 4,290 3,100 1,800
GA : 31.0 28.0 31.0 25,575 15,400 14,260
IDAHO =: 53.4 62.4 73.5 72,030 81,750 83,800
ILL : 49.0 44.0 59.0 36,750 36,080 56,050
IND : 53.0 43.0 58.0 37, 100 30,100 34,800
IOWA =: 48.0 28.0 38.0 5,376 1,680 1,140
KANS : 38.0 33.0 37.0 433,200 336,600 366,300
KY : 34.0 33.0 49.0 10,540 8,910 16,170
LA : 34.0 35.0 31.0 7,140 7,350 5,270
MD 49.0 47.0 49.0 6,517 6,815 8,085
MICH : 60.0 45.0 48.0 45,000 30,600 19,200
MINN =: 53.1 36.8 40.7 142,426 103,666 102,588
MISS: 31.0 31.0 36.0 9,300 6,200 12,600
MO 39.0 33.0 46.0 49,920 18,810 35,420
MONT 12.7 29.1 32.2 50,240 138,520 151,220
NEBR : 39.0 38.0 44.0 89,700 76,000 85,800
NEV : 73.8 78.2 80.0 1,770 1,720 1,680
NJ : 52.0 43.0 45.0 1,924 1,290 1,215
N MEX : 36.0 22.0 32.0 20,520 10, 120 10,880
NY : 58.0 49.0 47.0 8,410 7,595 3,760
NC : 29.0 33.0 41.0 22,040 15,180 18,040
N DAK : 36.4 31.2 29.8 323,255 292,320 271,970
OHIO. =: «62.0 46.0 58.0 58,900 48,300 46,400
OKLA =: 30.0 29.0 27.0 165,000 150,800 129,600
OREG =: «52.6 57.0 65.3 56,040 58,405 52,920
PA : 48.0 44.0 43.0 10,080 9,680 7,955
sc : 29.0 25.0 38.0 12,470 7,500 10,450
S DAK : 29.6 28.3 30.2 111,215 108,660 106,704
TENN : 32.0 33.0 41.0 8,000 10,725 14,350
TEX : 32.0 25.0 28.0 187,200 120,000 100,800
UTAH =: 33.2 37.8 40.3 8,640 9,750 7,860
VA : 37.0 41.0 45.0 10,545 6,970 93675
WASH =: 47.7 48.5 56.7 128,250 116,850 114,285
WVA =: 43.0 44.0 45.0 344 396 495
WIS : 56.1 54.3 47.3 8,800 8,040 4,164
WYO : 22.3 30.5 30.9 5,528 8,445 8,540
US : 37.5 34.4 37.6 2,425,105 2,091,635 2,104,967
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

OCTOBER 1987 A-13 NASS, USDA


FILBERTS: Oregon and Washington filbert growers are expecting to harvest an

18.5 thousand ton (16.8 thousand metric ton) crop in 1987. Harvest
is just getting underway in Oregon with conditions being good to excellent for
harvesting.

ORANGES: The first production forecast of U.S. all oranges for the 1987-88

season is 183 million boxes (7.13 million metric tons), 1 percent
higher than last season and 4 percent above the 1985-86 season. The forecast
for all Florida oranges is 130 million boxes, 3 percent above both last
season's crop and 1985-86, Production of Florida early and mid-season
varieties, at 72.0 million boxes, is 9 percent more than last season and 12
percent above the 1985-86 crop. Florida Valencia production is expected to
total 58.0 million boxes, 8 percent higher than last season's crop and 5
percent above 1985-86 production.

California's 1987-88 all orange crop forecast, at 49.0 million boxes, is
16 percent lower than last season and 9 percent below the 1985-86 season. The
Navel crop for California is expected to total 26.0 million boxes, 25 percent
less than the 1986-87 crop and 21 percent below 1985-86. California's
Valencia forecast, at 23.0 million boxes, is 4 percent lower than last
season's crop but 10 percent more than the crop harvested in 1985-86. The
Arizona all orange crop is expected to total 3.05 million boxes, 3 percent
lower than last season but 33 percent above the 1985-86 crop. The Texas all
orange crop is expected to total 1.35 million boxes, compared with 875
thousand boxes last season.

The October 1 U.S. all orange production forecast has deviated from the
final production by an average of 21.4 million boxes over the past 10 seasons,
ranging from a low of 2.50 million boxes in 1977-78 to a high of 53.0 million
boxes in the 1983-84 season. The large difference between the October 1, 1983
forecast and the final production for the 1983-84 season was the result of the
late December 1983 freeze losses to the Florida and Texas citrus crops.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1987-88 forecast of all Frozen

Concentrated Orange Juice for Florida
is 1.46 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast is projected to
estimate the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processor's Associa-
tion. The 1986-87 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.50827 gallons per
box at 42 degrees Brix. This was the record high yield in the 21 year
series. The average yield of 14 non-freeze seasons in this series is 1.4160
gallons per box.

GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects for the 1987-88 season, excluding California's "Other

Areas" grapefruit, indicate a crop of 60.4 million boxes (2.26
million metric tons), 4 percent above the previous season and 14 percent
higher than the 1985-86 season. The California “Other Areas“ grapefruit crop,
which will be forecast as of April 1, 1988, accounted for 4.90 million boxes
harvested last season and 4.50 million boxes in 1985-86.

Florida's grapefruit forecast is 51.0 million boxes, up 2 percent from
last season and 9 percent above the 1985-86 season. The Florida white
seedless grapefruit forecast is 27.0 million boxes, up fractionally from last
season; colored seedless is 20.5 million boxes, up 3 percent; and seedy
grapefruit at 3.50 million boxes is 21 percent higher than 1986-87.

The California desert grapefruit forecast is 4.20 million boxes, the same
as last season. Arizona's grapefruit crop is forecast at 2.10 million boxes,
down 5 percent from last season. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 3.10
million boxes compared with 1.93 million boxes last season.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-14 NASS, USDA



INOE X

BARLEY - ANNUAL
OATS - ANNUAL .
RYE - ANNUAL ...
US SUMMARY - ANNUAL .
WHEAT, ALL - ANNUAL ....
WHEAT, BY CLASSES - ANNUAL .
WHEAT, DURUM - ANNUAL ......
WHEAT, OTHER SPRING - ANNUAL
WHEAT, WINTER - ANNUAL
APPLES ..
BEANS, DR
CITRUS FRUIT ....
CORN FOR GRAIN ..
COTTON ....66 .
COTTONSEED ......
CROP MOISTURE MAPS
FILBERTS ..
GRAPES ......
HAY, ALL .....e-0-

HAY, ALFALFA & ALFALFA MIXTURES” FOR. HAY. A-28
HAY, OTHER .eeceesenee sees A-27
INDEX NUMBERS . settee eeeee A-20
LENTILS .. . A-28
PAPAYAS .ccceceeccsccececeerene A-37
PASTURE AND RANGE “REED CONDITION | A-30
PEANUTS FOR NUTS ... A-24
PEAS, AUSTRIAN WINTER . A-30
PEAS, DRY EDIBLE ... . A-29
PECANS .... . A-37
POTATOES .. . A-29
PRUNES, ORIED ....-..000e . A-36
PRUNES AND PLUMS ..... . A-36
RELIABILITY STATEMENT eee A-19
RICE ... eee ee eee A-22
SORGHUM F A-22
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS A-23
SUGARBEETS ..cceecceecceeceeccerece A-33
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED .. sees A-33
SUNFLOWER Lecce eee e eee ecreeeeeee A-24
TOBACCO, BY CLASS AND TYPE .. A-31
TOBACCO BY STATES ...... st eeeeee A-33
US SUMMARY ..ccceceescceerene A- 4

FOI III IOI III IIR II III CII IIIT TOTTORI IIR ITA RIK IIR RIK
NOTICE

Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports
should be directed to Agricultural Statistics Board Publications, Room
5829-South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-4021).

are available as soon as possible following release through USDA's EDI
SERVICE. For more information, call or write: Russell Forte, (202)
447-5505, OGPA, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250.

The next issue of this report will be published November 9, 1987

* *
* *
* *
* *
* *
* *
* This report and other statistical, economic, marketing and news reports *
* *
* *
* *
* *
* *
FE TET TOK IK KKK ITOK KIKI KKK KIT KEKE KKK TK TIKI IKK IKI TET TH III IK II HII BRK IK TREK K

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 B-16 NASS, USDA


DURUM WHEAT

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

1,000 ACRES
ARIZ: a7 49 46 46 48 45
CALIF =: 85 80 60 80 75 57
MINN 9: 35 35 30 33 34 29
MONT : 200 165 195 160 160 190
N DAK : 2,750 2,600 2,900 2,690 2,500 2,850
S DAK : 90 65 10 85 60 108
US = 3,207 2,994 3,341 3,094 2,877 3,279
YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE je-en-nennnnnnn cee en enn en ene nen n ene n cence ene neen eee nnennencnnnenenes
1985 : 1986 : 1987 1985 1986 1987
BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ARIZ 84.0 87.0 85.0 3,864 4,176 3,825
CALIF 92:0 87.0 90.0 72360 6,525 5.130
MINN 52.0 39.0 42.0 13716 13326 13218
MONT 9.0 27.0 28.0 13440 43320 5,320
N DAK 35.5 32.0 27.0 95,495 80,000 76.950
S DAK 31.0 26.0 28.0 2,635 1,560 33024
US 36.4 34.0 29.1 112,510 97,907 95,467
WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES 1/
WINTER SPRING :
YEAR : HARD: SOFT HARD :
: RED: RED : WHITE : RED : DURUM: WHITE

1,000 BUSHELS

: 1,230,075 368,417 229,123 460,205 112,510 24,775 2,425,105
: 1,017,831 292,450 211,217 451,417 97,907 20,813 2,091,635
:1 199,623 432,019 95,467 16,495 2,104,967

1/ WHEAT CLASS ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON ACREAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED
AT 5-YEAR INTERVALS FOR ALL WHEAT PRODUCING STATES. THE 5-YEAR VARIETAL
SURVEY DATA ARE ADJUSTED ANNUALLY AS OTHER VARIETY SURVEY INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
OCTOBER 1987 A-16 NASS, USDA