PEACHES

: PRODUCTION

AND TOTAL 1/
STATE pene ne nwo nena INDICATED
: 1981 1983
t MILLION POUNDS
t
ALA t 22.0 15.0 13.0
ARK : 37.0 32.0 32.0
CAL IF-FREESTONE 2 434.0 415.0 440.0
COLO : 20.0 41.0 13.0
CONN 2/ : 3 2.3 3.0
DEL 2/ t 1.6 1.7 1.8
GA + 140.0 120.0 85.0
IDAHO 2/ ' 12.0 7.0 11.0
yUL : 22.0 a/ 11.0
IND 2/ ’ 7.0 4/ 5.0
KANS 2/ : 6.5 1.8 6.5
KY 2/ + 16.0 af 6.0
LA 2/ t 6.0 5.0 7.0
MD ’ 17.0 17.0 22.0
MASS) 2/ : +2 15 1.8
MiCH ’ 35.0 50.0 35.0
MISS 2/ : 3.0 345 3.0
MO 2/ : 15.0 4.5 16.0
Nod ? 90.0 80.0 110.0
NY : 9.0 12.0 14.5
NC : 40.0 2.0 10.0
OhK10 2/ 2 2.0 3 10.0
OKLA 2/ : 13.0 9.0 9.0
OREG 2/ : 13.0 13.0 16.0
PA : 65.0 90.0 102.0
sc ? 430.0 210.0 110.0
TENN 2/ ’ 10.0 1.5 2.2
TEX + 34.0 16.0 27.0
UTAH 2/ t 12.0 3.5 13.0
VA : 30.0 27.0 29.0
WASH z 20.0 25.0 27.0
WA : 18.0 14.0 22.0
TOTAL ABOVE : 1,580.6 1,190.6 1,213.8
CLINGSTONE 3/ 2
CALIF + 1,202.0 1,102.0 920.0
ALL GEACHES 2
u t 2,782.6 2,292.6 2,133.8

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (MILLION POUNDS):
UNITED STATES, EXCLUDING CALIF CLINGSTONE PEACHES: 1981-34.8, 1982-24.7.

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

3/ CALIF CLINGSTONE I'S OVER THE SCALE TONNAGE AND INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY
DIVERSIONS (MILLION POUNDS): 1981~96.0, 1982-159.0,

4] NO SIGNIFICANT COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION DUE TO EARLIER FROSTS.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 B-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALMONDS: California forecast, 250 million pounds (113 thousand metric tons),

down 4 percent from last month, 28 percent less than 1982, 39 percent
below 1981 record. Trees and developing crop show additional damage from
excessive winter and spring rains and poor pollination weather. Sacramento
Valley hardest hit--several thousand acres of trees killed by excessive
moisture. Lighter nut sets this year. Average kernel size very large.
Percentage of nuts rejected may be higher than normal.

WALNUTS: First California forecast, 210 thousand tons (191 thousand metric
“~~~ tons), 10 percent less than record high 1982 crop, 7 percent below
1981. Normal bloom occurred but nut size smaller than normal. Some blight
and codling moth damage reported. Tree damage from standing water stil]
uncertain. Some acreage lost and many trees below average condition.

ORANGES: Final 1982-83 U.S. forecast, 219 million boxes (8.44 million metric
tons), down 1 percent from June 1 forecast, 23 percent more than

last season. U.S. Valencia production expected to total nearly 104 million

boxes (4.02 million metric tons), down 2 percent from last month, 44 percent

above 1981-82 season total. Florida Valencia crop, 70.0 million boxes, 3

Percent less than last month, 35 percent higher than 1981-82 crop. California

Valencte crop unchanged at 29.0 miliion boxes, 81 percent above last season.

Harvest of Valencias in Florida 99 percent complete, California's crop
about 30 percent harvested by July 1. Valencia harvest nearly complete other
States. U.S. orange crop 90 percent harvested by July 1, 96 percent on July 1
last season,

The July 1 U.S. all orange forecast has deviated from actual production by
an average of 1.50 million boxes over past 10 seasons, ranging from no
deviation in 1978-79 to 4.60 million boxes in 1976-77,

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The Florida FCOJ yield for the
1982-83 orange crop is estimated at

1.48 gallons per box at 42.0 degree brix equivalent. The final yield for

1981-82 crop was 1.27832 gallons per box at 42.0 degree brix equivalent.

GRAPEFRUIT: Final forecast 1982-83, 61.1 million boxes (2.24 million metric
“————" tons), fractionally higher than June 1, 14 percent lower than
1981-82. Harvest about 51 percent complete in California, 90 percent in
Arizona, virtually complete in Texas and Florida. Quality and size of
remaining fruit good.

Changes in forecast between July 1 and final production have averaged 620
thousand boxes over past 10 seasons, ranging from no change in 1979-80 to 1.66
million boxes in 1977-78 season.

LEMONS: California and Arizona crop expected to total 25.2 million boxes (869
thousand metric tons), 3 percent below June 1 forecast, 2 percent
above 1981-82 season. Harvest 88 percent complete.

CITRUS CROP - HARVEST AND UTILIZATION TO suey 1

crop’

EWATNING:
HARVEST

: FRESH: PROCESSED : FRESH: PROCESSED: TOT.

“THOUSAND BOXES
ORANGES 241,888 129,229
GRAPEFRUIT: 28,035 41,375
LEMONS 13,570

6,673 48,043 149,959 198,002
1,600 29,503 27,474 5 77
646 9,888 32,382

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP
AND

STATE
1,000 cwr
WINTER fy
t .
TOTAL Ws 11.0 11.0 206 203 2,198 2,263 2,230
SPRING ’
TOTAL Y/3 78.0 75.4 264 232 20,765 20,559 17,479
SUMMER 2
ALA : 8.6 9.3 150 145 1,365 1,290 1,349
CALIF + 8.4 8.0 365 320 2,960 3,066 2,560
COLO + 6.4 5.9 260 265 1,664 1,564
DEL + 5.4 5.4 290 235 1,566 1,269
ILL : 2.2 2.3 265 245 583 564
1ND : 1.9 1.7 220 170 4t8 289
1OWA : 1.5 1.6 205 185 308 296
MD : 1.6 1.6 205 205 328 328
MICH ' 7.8 8.0 200 170 1,453 1,560 1,360
MINN + 6.6 5.1 285 270 1,647 1,861 1,377
NEBR : 1.0 Vet 160 180 220 160 198
NJ t 7.9 8.3 260 * 225 2,066 2,054 1,868
N MEX 2 4.5 4.4 280 250 945 1,260 1,100
nc t 3.9 3.9 115 115 480 449 449
OHIO t 1.2 1.2 250 210 228 300 252
TENN : 2.7 2.5 95 95 279 257 238
TEX t 8.7 9.3 240 250 1,541 2,088 2,325
vA : 16.5 15.0 135 120 2,320 2,228 1,800
TOTAL : 96.8 94.6 222 203 20,035 21,460 19,186
FALL Zale
CALIF : 18.5 19.0 410 6,919 7,585
COLO : 45.0 44.0 280 11,600 12,600
CONN : 1.8 1.4 235 486 423
'1DAHO-10 SW CO: 25.0 25.0 330 8,040 8,250
-OTHER CO : 314.0 307.0 260 76,500 81,640
IND z 3.3 3.1 280 615 924
MAINE t 106.0 93.0 250 26,520 26,500
MASS : 3.5 3.1 220 743 770
MICH : 33.0 33.0 245 7,050 8,085
MINN t 64.0 65.0 180 13,300 11,520
MONT : +4 7.2 260 1,739 1,924
NEBR + 8.1 7.5 265 2,252 2,147
NEV z 13.0 412.0 315 3,480 4,095
N Y=LONG IS z 18.5 16.3 270 5,365 4,995
UPSTATE : 27.0 24.5 260 6,875 7,020
N DAK : 115.0 121.0 150 20,125 17,250
OHIO + 9.5 9.2 2485 1,890 2,328
OREG-MALHEUR CO : 10.5 9.0 370 3,450 3,685
OTHER CO 2 42.0 39.5 410 18,260 17,220
PA : 23.5 21.5 245 5,250 5,758
Ri 3 3.0 2.8 240 832 720
S DAK : 10.0 16.0 155 702 1,550
UTAH t 5.8 4.9 225 1,276 1,305
vT : +6 6 215 154 129
WASH : 110.0 103.0 480 52,920 52,800
wis 3 64.5 60.0 350 18,190 22,575
Wyo ' 5.2 5.3 190 1,060 988
TOTAL 2: 1,087.7) 1,053.9 280 295,593 304,986
274 338, 591 349, 268

WV ESTIMATE FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1983 TO BE RELEASED OCTOBER 12, 1983.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY (CONTINUED)
(METRIC UNITS)

PRODUCTION

INDICATED

JUN 1,
1983

OATS 8 7 533 290
BARLEY 11 373 630 12 191 840
WINTER WHEAT 57 377 050 51 244 580 52 727 060
RYE 528 780 661 900
POTATOES

SUMMER 973 400 870 260

FALL 1/ 13 833 860

TOTAL t/ 15 842 450
FLUE~CURED TOBACCO

TYPES 11-14 t 456 510 400 410
APPLES, COM'L : 3 678 610 3 811 060
PEACHES 2/ 1 039 900 973 770 967 670
PEARS 730 280 768 930
SWEET CHERRIES 3/ 143 520 141 700
TART CHERRIES 3/ 141 G20 64 360
APRICOTS 102 420 99 160 94 800
NECTARINES (CALIF) 156 940 | 181 440 .. 172 370
PLUMS (CALIF) 107 500 163 290 154 220
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) 114 310 122 470 122 470
ALMONDS (CALIF) 157 400 117-930 113 400
WALNUTS (CALIF) 212 280 190 510
OLIVES (CALIF) 132 450 59 870
CITRUS FRUITS 4/ 1981-82 1982-83 1982-83

ORANGES 6 930 890 8 536 610 8 441 35

GRAPEFRUIT 2 624 490 2 228 950 2 238 020

LEMONS 854 570 896 300 869 080

1/ YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1983 TO BE RELEASED OCT 12, 1983. 2/ INCLUDES
CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE PEACHES AS FOLLOWS IN
METRIC TONS: 1982 - 72 120. 3/ ESTIMATES IN JUN 1 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECASTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF LATE JUNE. 4/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF
qe FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENOS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING
YEAR,

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-S CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


:

PEARS BARTLETT. t
CALIF + 366,000 314,000 330,000
OREG t 85,000 70,000 76,000
WASH : 144,500 141,300 150,000
TOTAL : 595,500 525,300 556,000

PEARS EXCLUDING BARTLETT :
CALIF : 10,000 7,500 7,500
OREG $ 120,000 105,000 115,000
WASH 2 130,800 124,500 130,000
TOTAL t 260,800 237,000 252,500

ALL PEARS 3
CALIF : 376,000 321,500 337,500
coLo : 7,000 2,700 5,300
CONN : 1,600 1,550 1,580
MICH : 9,000 12,000 8,000
NY : 17,000 19, 4 17,500
OREG + 205,000 17 191,000
PA : 3,000 i600 3,600
UTAH 2 3,100 2,800 3,100
WASH : 275,300 265,800 280,000
897,000 804,950 847,580

17 INGLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS)
1981-3,050, 1982-1,220.

MISCELLANEOUS FRUITS AND NUTS

PRODUCTION

TOTAL 1/

PLUMS 2

CALIF : 197,500 118,500 170,000
PRUNES (DRIED BASIS) t

CALIF : 159,500 126,000 135,000
GRAPES TABLE TYPE '

CALIF z 420,000 602,000 550,000
GRAPES WINE TYPE +

CALIF : 1,794,000 2,402,000 2,100,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE DRIED 2/3

CALIF + 256,000 268,000
GRAPES RAISIN NOT DRIED z

CALIF ' 755,000 1,112,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE 3/ t

CALIF + 1,779,000 3,134,000 2,750,000
ALL GRAPES !

CALIF fy 3,993,000 6,138,000 5,400,000
APRICOTS . :

CALIF : 86,500 110,000 100,000

UTAH ! 1,600 200 1,600

WASH + 1,300 2,700 2,900

us z 89,400 112,900 104,500
NECTARINES :

CALIF + 182,000 173,000 190,000
OLIVES r

CALIF : 44,900 146,000 66,000
WALNUTS: :

CALIF : 225,000 234,000 210,000

1,000 POUNDS

ALMONDS (SHELLED BASIS)
CALIF

347,000 250,000

17 INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS):
APRICOTS - U.S., 1981-20, 1982-90; GRAPES (CALIF) ~ 1982-780,000.

2/ DRIED BASIS; 1 TON OF RAISINS IS EQUIVALENT TO 4.00 TONS OF FRESH GRAPES FOR
1981 AND 5.25 TONS FOR 1962.

3/ FRESH EQUIVALENT OF DRIED AND NOT DRIED.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 8-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


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CROP AND
STATE

CHERRIES, SWEET

CALIF
'DAHO
MICH
MONT
NY

OREG
PA 2/
UTAK
WASH

us

CHERRIES, TART

COLO 2/

MICH 2/

NY 2/

OREG

PA 2/

UTAR

WIS 2/

va INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD:

(TONS) 1981-7,020
1982-66.0,

46,400
153,040

>
uw
2
3}

CHERRIES

TONS

11,400 15,000
2,700 2,200
33,500 20,000
3,400 1,500
3,500 4,100
35,000 41,000
600 730
2,100 4,700
66,000 67,000
158,200 156,230

MILLION POUNDS
4 2.4
260.0 80.0
20.0 23.0
5.0 7.0
5.5 6.5
9.0 16.5
10.0 6.5

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEO FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SEASONAL soROUP

WINTER
TOTAL
SPRING
TOTAL
SUMMER
TOTAL
FALL
CALIF
COLO
CONN

IDAHO-10 sw CO
~OTHER CO

Wi 7944

AREA PLANTED, POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP
STATE

MONT : 7.5
NEBR + 8.2
NEV 2 13.0
N Y=LONG IS ? 18.8
UPSTATE + 28.0

N DAK : 122.0
OHIO : 10.0
OREG-MALHEUR CO =: 10.7
-OTHER CO t 42.8

PA t 24.0
Rt + 3.0
S_DAK : 11.0
UTAH : 5.8
vT : 6
WASH t 110.0
wis : 66.0
: 5.3

2 1,117.4

2 1,307.1

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION,

JULY 1983

CROP REPORTING BOARD,

1,000 ACRES

us SWEET CHERRIES
» 1982-22,490; U S TART CHERRIES (MILLION POUNDS) 1981-0.4,

RNa

Ne
WUANNOVOSUVAN YA

ao

wee
RoOOMOUMOONUVOUUOAY

1,076.6
1,265.2

SRS, USDA


STATE

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1 000 BUSHELS
COLO + 12 15 19.0 19.0 195 228 285
DEL 3 4 3 34.0 34.0 105 136 102
GA : 70 60 21.0 21.0 2,730 1,470 1,260
tLe t 13 W 23.0 24.0 336 299 264
'ND t 10 10 26.0 26.0 234 260 260
1OWA t 4 4 28.0 32.0 165 112 128
KANS t 10 15 24.0 28.0 252 240 420
KY : 2 3 28.0 29.0 84 56 87
MD t 10 9 29.0 28.0 240 290 252
MICH : 22 18 29.0 32.0 532 638 576
MINN t 100 160 33.0 31.0 2,883 3,300 4,960
MO t 3 2 24.0 23.0 100 72 46
NEBR z 4i 44 27.0 27.0 924 49,107 1,188
Nd : W 14 29.0 28.0 261 319 392
NY WW 13 31.0 33.0 288 341 429
NC 25 30 22.0 22.0 400 550 660
N DAK t 100 120 34.0 34.0 2,560 3,400 4,080
OHIO : 5 6 31.0 32.0 150 155 192
OKLA : 38 38 23.0 27.0 680 874 1,026
OREG : 5 4 29.0 30.0 150 145 120
PA : 12 17 34.0 35.0 363 408 595
sc t 27 25 23.0 18.0 726 621 450
S DAK : 130 190 36.0 36.0 3,220 4,680 6,840
TEX t 26 32 18.0 18.0 475 504 576
VA t 14 25 26.0 29.0 364 364 725
wis t 8 5 31.0 29.0 408 248 145
us 3 715 873 29.1 29.8 18,822 20,817 26,058

FLUE-CURED TOBACCO

HAREA HARVESTED

STATE

AND

TYPE
~ POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

TYPES 11-14

FLA 9,300 8,000 2,255 2,325 22,848 20,972 18,600
GA 50,000 45,000 2,110 2,000 121,000 105,500 90,000
nec 13,000 285,000 2,140 2,080 756,305 669,455 592,800
sc 59,000 2,105 1,950 148,580 124,195 105,300
vA 42,000 2,055 1,950 121,000 86,310 76,050
us 73,300 2,048 1,169,733 1,006,432 882,750

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 B-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



WINTER WHEAT HARVEST

Winter wheat in fair to mostly good condition at beginning of June.
However, development later than normal most regions. Fifty-seven percent of
acreage headed as of June 1, trailing the average of 70 percent. Harvesting
underway in extreme South early in the month, but combfning began late in
month across portions of Corn Belt. On the Great Plains, harvest was only as
far north as Kansas, as the month ended. At end of June, harvest in 15 major
States 21 percent finished, well behind 43 percent average. Scattered showers
limtted progress across most of eastern half of Nation late in month and
caused some lodging in scattered areas of the East and in portions of the
northern Plains, Hot weather pushed wheat to maturity on Texas Plains and
promoted rapid harvesting as month ended. Combining 69 percent finished in
exas.

OATS: The 1983 oats crop, forecast at 519 million bushels (7.53 million
metric tons,) 16 percent below last year. Decrease in production
resulted from 14 percent redyction in harvested acres and 1.0 bushel reduction
in average yield from year ago. U.S. average yield, forecast at 57.4 bushels
per acre, down from 58.4 bushels last year.

»In the two leading States--South Dakota and Minnesota--development
slightly slower than normal because of cool, wet weather thoroughout the
growing season. Some areas report excessive moisture. Generally, the crop in
good condition in most States.

BARLEY: Production of barley forecast at a record high 560 million bushels
(12.2 mitlton metric tons), up 7 percent from the previous record
high set last year. Average yield, at 56.5 bushels per acre, 1s down 0.8
bushel from record high of 57.3 bushels set last year. Area for harvest, at
9.91 million acres (4.01 million hectares), is up 9 percent from last year.
In North Dakota, the leading State, crop looks good with development ahead of
normal. For Montana, rainshowers improved conditions over most of the State
except the eastern portion where dry conditions continue. Crop looks good in
Washington, Oregon and Idaho; good yields expected.

In California, barley harvest progressing rapidly and should be comptete
by mid-auly in all but higher elevations. Harvest also started in some areas
of Oregon.

WINTER WHEAT: Production forecast at 1.94 billion bushels (52.7 million

metric tons), 3 percent above last forecast, down 8 percent
from last year. Area for harvest, 47.6 million acres (19.3 million hectares),
down 18 percent from last year, but increased yields partially offset this
decline.

Record high yield of 40.7 bushels expected, up 4.6 bushels from last year,
3.8 bushels above previous record set in 1979. Record high yields expected
Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Ohio, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas and Washington.

Harvest 21 percent complete July 3 in 15 major producing States--last year
25, average 43 percent. Harvest underway in Corn Belt, and as far north as
Kansas in Great Plains. Scattered showers slowed progress across most of
eastern half of Nation, Minimal lodging across portions of northern Plains
caused .by severe thunderstorms. Hot temperatures on Texas Plains aided
maturity, promoted rapid harvest; combining 69 percent finished by July 3.

RYE: Production forecast, 26.1 million bushels (662 thousand metric tons},

25 percent more than 1982. Average yield 29.8 bushels, up slightly from
last year. Area for harvest, 873 thousand acres (353 thousand hectares), up
22 percent from 1982.

South Dakota rye entered spring growing season in excellent condition; 36
bushels average yield expected, equal to last year's record high. Minnesota
crop expected to yield 3] bushels, down 2 bushels from 1982. In North Dakota,
crop ahead of normal, yfeld unchanged from a year ago. Conditions vary widely
in Georgia but yield averages 21 bushels, equal to 1982. Georgia soil
moisture short to surplus.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


4 pip
ll
‘4 Dey
teed examen ; ae.
ZA tue 9 A on ©
i= 4
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Eun
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CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF JULY 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts tn this report are based on acreage surveys
conducted around June 1% and yield surveys conducted around July 1. The
acreage estimates published in the June 29 Acreage Report and used in this
report include acres already planted at the time of the survey and acreage
intended for planting later. The July 1 yield surveys include mailed reports
from farmers for all crops and actual field observations in winter wheat
fields. Farmers provided appraisals of crop conditfons and probable yield
information for crops on their farms and for their localities. Objective
yield surveys provided smatl plot observations, counts and measurements in a
Probability sample of winter wheat fields. These surveys are subject to
sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common to all surveys. More
importantly, the production forecasts are subject to change due to future
weather effects and other factors that cahnot be measured currently but
directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report the “Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past
Performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by
expressing the deviations between the July 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percent of the final estimate and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1963-82 twenty-year period; the square root of
the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the “Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat
production forecast is 3.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3
that the current production forecast of 1,937 million bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent or approximately 64
million bushels, Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that
the difference will not exceed 5.7 percent or approximately 110 million
bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the July 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using winter
wheat again as an example, changes between the July 1} forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 28 million bushels, ranging
from 1 million to 54 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the
final estimate 6 times and above 4 times.

RELIABILITY OF JULY 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS
OOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR TEN YEAR RECORD OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
AND FINAL ESTIMATE

290% CONFIDENCE
4 LEVEL

CROP AND
UNIT

OATS
BARLEY
WINTER WHEAT

Leow

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


APPLES, COMMERCIAL 1/

1981 1962 1983
MILLION POUNDS

ARK t 23.0 10.0 22.0
CALIF z 626.0 480.0 520.0
COLO : 75.0 40.0 85.0
CONN 2 38.0 55.0 44.0
DEL z 13.1 14.5 13.5
GA 2 45.0 15.0 20.0
IDAHO 2 135.0 126.0 130.0
ich t 103.0 88.0 95.0
tND 68.0 77.0 65.0
1OWA 11.0 11.5 12.5
KANS 14.0 12.5 16.0
KY 21.0 12.0 16.0
MAINE 80.0 89.0 82.0
MD 70.0 80.0 77.0
MASS 83.0 100.0 95.0
MICH 660.0 980.0 700.0
MINN 22.0 25.0 25.0
MO 62.0 45.0 56.0
NH 45.0 56.0 50.0
NS 95.0 140.0 90.0
N MEX 17.0 12.0 6.0
NY 800.0 1,130.0 1,150.0
nec 375.0 170.0 400.0
OHIO 100.0 150.0 100.0
OREG 155.0 150.0 160.0
PA 400.0 525.0 520.0
R! 4.5 6.0 5.5
sc ry 36.0 6.0 24.0
TENN 11.0 4.5 8.5
‘UTAH 54.0 54.0 58.0
VT 28.0 50.0 46.0
VA 465.0 500.0 460.0
WASH 2,760.0 2,600.0 2,950.0
WVA 200.0 240.0 240.0
Wis 59.0 56.0 60.0
ws 7,753.6 6,110.0 8,402.0

1/ IN ORCHARDS QF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES,
2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1981-47.7,1982-13.8.

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

TOTAL IN CROP

FORECAST
1983

““7,000 POUNDS
3,534 4,850

CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-JUN 22,787 21,165

Vv "REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


JUNE WEATHER SUMMARY

Showers and thunderstorms were frequent over most parts of the Nation.
Only southwestern Arizona and southern California had little or no rain.
Moderate showers and unusually heavy snowmelt runoff through the Rockies and
parts of the Plateau caused serious flooding along most western rivers.
Although rains were not as heavy as in May through most of the Mississippi
Delta and Tennessee Vatley, frequent moderate rain kept those areas and the
eastern gulf coast too wet. Western Texas and southern New Mexico did not get
the norma) amount of thunderstorm rain during the month so ranges there have
gotten very dry. Less than half the normal June rain fell in eastern Montana
and drought conditions exist in that area. Below normal rain in the Great
Lakes region, northern New York and New England, the middle and upper Ohio
Valley, and in parts of Georgia and South Carolina has caused those areas to
use part of their stored soil moisture. The northern part of the Nation
averaged a Tittle warmer than normal but the central and southern Plains were
4-69 cooler than normal.

ROW CROP PROGRESS

Torrential rains during mid-June drenched most of the eastern Great Plains
and the area from the Delta States across the Appalachians into New England;
field activities were halted in these areas. Some fields showed excessive
erosion and high winds lodged some sma)) grains. late in the month, another
storm system created heavy rainfall across the eastern Great Plains, Corn Belt
and from the Delta States through the Southeast. Planting generally
progressed slightly behind average in most regions during June. Wet
conditions delayed planting, especially soybeans, from the Delta States
northward into Kentucky. Much needed rain fell in the spring wheat areas at
the end of June, helping relieve dry Conditions and providing needed moisture
for growing crops. Dry weather increased irrigation requirements in
California, and caused deterioration of rangeland grasses over the Southwest
and portions of Texas. A heavy snow melt during June over the Rockies caused
flooding of low lying fields and damaged some irrigation systems.

At the beginning of June, corn planting was 83 percent complete, 5
percentage points less than normal. Planting was 40 points slower than normal
in Kentucky and 24 points behind in Michigan. However, farmers were able to
get into the fields and by midmonth planting was nearly complete although
later than norma) itn most States. Corn was silking as far north as Virginia
at the end of June. In Southern areas, many fields were in the dough stage
with early-planted fields in the dent stage. Warmer weather and mostly
adequate soil moisture improved prospects for the crop as the month ended.
Corn generally rated fair to good throughout the Nation.

Soybean seeding was 39 percent finished at the beginning of June, compared
with the 54 percent average. Progress in all major producing States was
slower than average. By mid-dune, Planting progress had caught up with the
average except for the Delta States northward to Kentucky where progress
lagged normal because of wet conditions. Planting was 94 percent complete in
the 18 major producing States at the beginning of July, 2 points behind the
average. Seeding was virtually complete in the Corn Belt but continued to be
delayed from Mississippi to Kentucky. Progress in the Southeast was slow
because farmers were waiting to plant double-cropped soybeans after harvesting
the late maturing small grains.

Cotton planting was 72 percent complete by June 1, trailing the 82 percent
average. By midmonth, planting was complete in all States except Oklahoma and
Texas where seeding was finished in late June. Squaring was underway on 33
percent of the acreage by July 3, well behind the average of 51 percent.
Squaring had not begun in Oklahoma. In the other 13 major States squaring
ranged from 19 percent in both Tennessee and Texas to 95 percent squared in
Arizona. Seven percent of the acreage was setting bolls as the month ended.
Texas producers reseeded some hail-damaged fields, Hot weather stimulated
crop development in the southern half of the State as June ended.

At the beginning of June, sorghum planting was 48 percent finished,
lagging the average of 58 percent. Rainy weather delayed planting; progress
was 25 points less than average in Nebraska, 17 less in Missouri and 15 points
less than average in both Kansas and South Dakota. June rains continued to
slow planting. Planting reached 95 percent complete as June ended, compared
with 97 percent average. Progress was as much as 13 points slower than norma)
in Oklahoma and 5 points slower in Kansas. Harvesting started at the end of
the month in the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FALL POTATOES: PERCENT OF ACREAGE PLANTED BY TYPE OF POTATOES,
11 MAJOR STATES, 1983 CROP

: 10 7 83 100
: 100 100
z 73 27 100
t 1 64 35 100

21 48 31 100
: 100 100
: 19 69 12 100
: 100 100
: 100 100
: 100 100
: 13 24 63 100

1/ PREDOMINANT TYPE SHOWN MAY INCLUDE SMALL PORTION OF OTHER TYPE(S)
CONSTITUTING LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF STATE'S TOTAL.

FALL POTATOES: ACRES PLANTED FOR CERTIFIED SEED POTATOES, BY STATES 1/

: 1982 CROP 1983 CROP

> ENTERED ENTERED
STATE : FOR : PERCENT FOR

: CERTIFICATION CERTIFIED CERTIFIED CERTIFICATION

ACRES PERCENT ACRES

CALIF : 1,700 1,940 114 1,800
COLO : 10,610 8,048 76 9,800
CONN : 0 0 - 0
IDAHO : 49,027 43,857 89 44,300
IND 0 0 - 0
MAINE : 40,416 33,843 84 32,000
MASS : 0 0 - 0
MICH : 3,660 3,091 84 5,192
MINN : 24,245 22,869 94 24,603
MONT : 7,500 6,289 84 6,243
NEBR : 5,914 5,774 98 5,574
NEV : 0 0 - 0
NY : 1,906 1,840 97 2,009
N DAK : 27,879 27,266 98 30,074
OHIO : 0 0 - 0
OREG : 3,321 3,049 92 3,600
PA : 613 517 84 624
RI : 9 0 - 0
S_DAK : 827 812 98 900
UTAH : 387 389 101 204
VT : 0 o | - 0
WASH : 1,750 1,575 90 7,863
WIS : 10,937 10,742 98 12,006
Wyo : 407 205 50 200
TOTAL 191,099 172,106 90 180,992

1/ DATA SUPPLIED BY STATE SEED CERTIFICATION OFFICIALS.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 Bell CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION SSE"

Statistical Reporting
Released: guty 12, 1983 Sonics
3:00 P.M. ET

US. Department
of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

WINTER WHEAT production forecast at 1.94 billion bushels (52.7 million metric
tons}, down 8 percent from last year, 3 percent above June 1, 1983. The

90 percent confidence interval for this production forecast is 1.83 to
2.05 billion bushels. .

BARLEY production forecast at record high 560 million bushels (12.2 million
metric tons), up 7 percent from the previous record high set in 1982,

OATS production is forecast at 519 mittion bushels (7.53 million metric tons),
16 percent less than last year but 2 percent above 1981].

APPLE production forecast at 8.40 billion pounds (3.81 million metric tons, 4
percent above last year, 8 percent above 198].

PEACH production estimated at 2.13 billion pounds (968 thousand metric tons),
down 1 percent from June 1 and 7 percent from 1982.

PEAR production forecast at 848 thousand tons (769 thousand metric tons),
percent more than 1982, 6 percent below 1981.

ORANGE production forecast, 219 million boxes (8.44 million metric tons), down

percent from last month, 23 percent higher than last season. Harvest
is 90 percent complete.

POTATO area for harvest in 1983 for all seasonal groups estimated at 1.23 mil-
ion acres (500 thousand hectares), down 3 percent from last year,
fractionally below 1981. Fall potatoes will be harvested from 1.05
million acres (427 thousand hectares), a drop of 3 percent from 1982,
virtually the same as 1981.

KRRIIKIIRIEI IIR IAAI IAAI IRIS IARI SSSI IIA IISA IIIS IAAI IA IIIS IIIS IIA IIA.
* Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports *
* should be directed to Crop Reporting Board Publications, Room 5829 - *
* South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-4021). *

HR KIIRIIIIR IIR IRI IAI IIIA III IARI AIA AISI IIIA IIA ISIAI IIIA ISHII III III IR,

CrPr 2-2 (7-83) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


APPLES: Nation's forecast, at 8.40 billion pounds (3.81 million metric tons),
4 percent above last year, 8 percent above 1981.

Eastern States forecast, 3.32 billion pounds, 4 percent above 1982.
Incréase In North Carolina accounted for most of change. North Carolina crop
forecast 400 million pounds, more than double 1982--escaped the mid-April
freeze, in generally good condition. New York forecast 1.15 billton pounds,
up 2 percent from year ago, had good set. Cold, wet spring subsided long
enough for good pollination. Pennsylvania, at 520 million pounds, down 1
percent from 1982; Virginia, at 460 million pounds, down 8 percent--both had
light sets.

Central States forecast 1.18 billion pounds, down 20 percent from 1982.
MichTgan, leading State in region, forecast at 700 million pounds, down 29
ercent from 1982. Ohio forecast 100 million pounds, down one-third from
982, Poor pollination and late spring frosts reduced crop. Apple scab also
a problem.

Western States forecast, 3.97 billion pounds, up 13 percent from last
year. Washington forecast at 2.95 billion pounds, up 13 percent from 1982.
Orchards came through winter in very good shape and then had heavy bloom with
good pollination. Crop sizing welt but some problems with rust. California
forecast, 520 million pounds, up 8 percent from 1982, Bloom, pollination
adversely affected by storms and rain. Crop developing normally in San
Joaquin Valley but scab reported in Sebastopol, Watsonville area.

PEACHES: U.S. peach production forecast at 2.13 billion pounds (968 thousand

metric tons}, down 1 percent from last month, 7 percent below last
year. The Freestone crop, which excludes California Clingstone peaches that
are mostly canned, expected to total 1.21 billion pounds, down 1 percent from
June 1 forecast but 2 percent more than 1982 total.

Production in the nine Southern States forecast at 296 million pounds,
down 4 percent from June 1 forecast, 28 percent below last year's crop.
Decreased prospects in Alabama, South Carolina were not offset by improved
Prospects in Texas. Picking active in Arkansas with fruit size, cotor good to
excellent. Harvest in Georgia active, ahead of last year. North Carolina
crop: about half picked. In South Carolina, Ptiedmont harvest in full swing.
Heavy cullage on early varieties due April freezes. About 40 percent
California Freestone crop harvested. Size smaller than expected on early
varieties, should improve. Quality average with sugar lower than normal.
Production of California Clingstone peaches expected to be 920 million pounds,
unchanged from June 1 forecast, 17 percent below 1982 level. Brown rot a
problem in extra early varieties, especially Modesto area. Leaf curl problem
lessened in Yuba-Sutter district. Quality below average.

PAPAYAS: Hawaii forecast, 4.00 million pounds (1810 metric tons) for July,

down 22 percent from June, 8 percent above a year ago. Continued
declines are expected for fresh output over next three months. The 3.30
mitlion pounds (1500 metric tons) produced in August (17 percent Tess than
July) will be followed by abnormally low September and October outputs of 2.50
million pounds (1130 metric tons) and 2.40 mtllion pounds (1090 metric tons),
respectively. Anticipated low production results from extremely dry first
quarter weather.

June fresh production estimated at 5.75 million pounds (2330 metric tons),
6 percent above May, 41 percent more than year ago. Area in crop, 3180 acres
(1290 hectares) {n June, up 1 percent from May.
PEARS: Forecast, 848 thousand tons (769 thousand metric tons), 5 percent more
than last year, 6 percent below 1981.

Bartlett tonnage in California, Oregon and Washington forecast 556 thousand
tons (504 thousand metric tons), an increase of 6 percent from 1982.
California harvest expected begin mid-Juty. All districts reporting varying
amounts of hail damage-~could cause considerable cullage. Washington's pear
crop developing well, good size expected.

Production of Other than Bartletts in Pacific Coast States forecast 253
thousand tons (229 thousand metric tons), a 7 percent increase from last year,
3 percent less than 1981. Washington's trees came through winter in good
condition. Pollination weather favorable, fruft drop moderate.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES: U.S. crop for ALL SEASONAL GROUPS will be harvested from 1,23 mil-

lion acres (500 thousand hectares) in 1983, down 3 percent from
last year, fractionally below 1981. Area planted totaled 1.27 million acres
(512 thousand hectares), down 3 percent from 1982.

FALL POTATOES: Harvested area in 1983 forecast at 1.05 million acres (427
thousand hectares), down 3 percent from last year, fractionally

above 2 years ago. Planted area estimated at 1.08 million acres (436 thousand

hectares}. a drop of 4 percent from 1982, virtually same as two years ago.

In 7 Eastern States, acreage for harvest expected to total 163 thousand
acres, down ¥? percent from tast year, 8 percent below 2 years ago. Maine
acreage, 93.0 thousand acres for harvest, off 12 percent from 1982. Maine
growers battled cool, wet spring to get crop planted. By end of May, only
half the acreage was in compared with 95 percent normally. In New York,
harvested acreage down 10 percent. Long Island fields developing on schedule;
Upstate potatoes late. Acreage for harvest in Pennsylvania forecast at 21.5
thousand acres down 9 percent.

Central States acreage estimated at 315 thousand acres for harvest, a gain
of 2 percent from last year, 7 percent above 1981. The Dakota's each posted
6,000 acre increases from last year. North Dakota acreage, at 121 thousand,
gained 5 percent; while South Dakota jumped 60 percent to 16.0 thousand acres
for harvest this year. Planting in North Dakota finished a little ahead of
schedule, after a slow start. Moisture at present plentiful, occasionally
excessive in low spots. Minnesota area for harvest, 65.0 thousand acres, up 2
percent from last year. Michigan acreage held steady; Wisconsin growers
expect a 7 percent drop from last year.

Acreage in 9 Western States down 20 thousand from Ttast year's harvested
level. Acreage for harvest, 576 thousand this year, down 3 percent from
1982. Idaho acreage forecast at 332 thousand acres, down 2 percent.
Washington farmers expect to harvest 103 thousand acres, a decline of 6
percent from 1982. Oregon acreage at 48.5 thousand acres, off 8 percent;
Colorado area harvested at 44.0 thousand down 2 percent from last year. Of
the 9 Western potato States, only California. and Wyoming expect increases in
harvested acres from last year.

SUMMER POTATOES: Production forecast at 19.2 million cwt (870 thousand metric

tons), down 1) percent from last year and second smallest of
record. The 1980 crop was 17.0 million cwt (771 thousand metric tons). Area
for harvest, 94.6 thousand acres (38.3 thousand hectares), 2 percent less than
last year, fractionally smaller than 1981. Average yield expected, 203 cwt,
19 cwt below last year and poorest since 1980.

Production down from last year in most States; only Texas, Alabama and
Nebraska show larger crops. Harvest beginning in California. Yields and
quality well below normal due to wet, cold spring. In Texas, potatoes
developed slowly at first but warm weather in June, helped make up some growth.
Minnesota growers report crop 2 to 3 weeks behind schedule. Harvest in
Michigan should start about July 18. Growers hoping for good sizing weather.
In New Jersey, potatoes later than normal. Some low lying fields drowned out
from spring rains; others, spotty stands. Planting started early in Virginia
but finished late. Many fields have poor stands and are turning out fewer
potatoes | than expected. Harvest started June 21, so far, shipments down
one-third.

FLUE-CURED TOBACCO: Production forecast at 883 million pounds (400 thousand
metric tons), 12 percent below 1982, 25 percent below
1981. Production not below 900 million pounds since 1943. Yields expected to
average 2048 pounds per acre, 78 below previous year. Average yield down from
1982 all States except Florida.

Crop in mostly good condition. Minor disease, insect problems encountered
throughout belt but not serious. Some premature flowering in Georgia, North
Carolina from cool nights. Harvest underway Georgia, Florida but later than
normal. Lateness delaying harvest. About two weeks behind normal in North
Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: July 1 condition 88 percent, 90 percent last year, 81

Percent average. Conditions more favorable than last
year in 19 States, Jess in 25, equal in 4, Almost all areas continued to
enjoy ample moisture during June except for pockets scattered throughout
Nation. Conditions ranged from good, to extreme drought in southwestern Texas.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


Te
Cie

WRL

og

Dn,

‘shndcates curren supoy ol pasture Wed tor orang On non-engsted pashres Bnd ranges rine fo at exDeclae . ‘
rom enning sand iter wary favrabie water condans,

304

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT v/

PRODUCTION : PRODUCTION
TON EQUIVALENT

INDICATED INDICATED

1981-82 : 1982-83

1980-81 1981-82

1982-83

1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES, EARLY MID
& NAVEL
ARIZ 900 900 1,000 34 34 38
CALIF 38,750 27,000 40,500 1,453 1,013 1,518
FLA 105,600 74,000 70,200 4,752 3,330 3,159
TEX 2,600 3,610 3,800 110 153 162
us 147,850 105,510 115,500 6,349 4,530 4,877
ORANGES, VALENCIA
1,700 2,150 2,700 64 80 101
CALIF 26,500 16,000 29,000 994 600 1,088
FLA 66,800 51,800 70,000 3,006 2,331 3,150
TEX 1,730 2,330 2,100 74 99 89
us 96,730 72,280 103,800 4,138 3,110 4,428
ALL ORANGES
ARIZ 2,600 3,050 3,700 98 114 139
CALIF 65,250 43,000 69,500 2,447 1,613 2,606
FLA 172,400 125,800 140,200 7,758 5,661 6,309
TEX 4,330 5,940 5,900 184 252 251
us 244,580 177,790 219,300 10,487 7,640 9,305
TEMPLES
FLA 3,600 3,200 4,700 162 144 212
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE
SEEDLESS
FLA 28,400 27,300 += 21,600 1,207 1,160 927
GRAPEFRUIT, PINK
SEEDLESS
FLA 14,600 14,800 12,800 621 629 544
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
FLA 7,300 6,000 4,800 310 255 204
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
ARIZ 2,800 2,400 2,900 90 7 93
CALIF
DESERT 4,260 3,410 4,000 136 109 128
OTHER AREAS : 3,800 3,200 3,300 127 107 1
TOTAL : 8,060 6,610 7,300 263 216 239
FLA : 50,300 48,100 39,400 2,138 2,044 1,675
TEX 6,700 13,900 11,500 268 556 460
us 67,860 71,010 61,100 2,759 2,893 2,467
TANGER INES
ARIZ 700 750 700 26 28 26
CALIF 1,860 1,730 1,700 70 65 64
FLA 3,000 2,500 2,250 143 119 107
us 5,560 4,980 4,650 239 22 197
LEMONS
ARIZ 7,000 6,300 5,200 266 239 198
CALIF 24,300 18,500 20,000 923 703 760
us 31,300 24,800 25,200 1,189 * 942 958
TANGELOS
FLA 5,100 3,800 221 230 71

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST 1S COMPLETED.

2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ~75,FLA-90,
TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ~64, CALIF
OTHER-67, FLA-85, TEX-80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS &
TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES- CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95,

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA. EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEXAS.

4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 B-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE

FIRST CLASS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE sOSTAGE AND FEES PAID :

OFFICIAL BUZINESS
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300

To stop mating [“) of to change your
edcroas [] send this enest with abel
intact, showing new eddress, 10 Crop
Reporting Board Publications, SRS. U.S.
Dept. of Agricutture, Rn 5629 South
Building, 14th & independence Ave. 8.W.,
Wash. D.C. 20280.



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

SWEET CHERRIES 3/
TART CHERRIES 3/
APRICOTS

NECTARINES (CALIF)
PLUMS (CALIF)

DRIED PRUNES (CALIF)
ALMONDS (CALIF)
WALNUTS (CALIF)
OLIVES (CALIF)

OATS > 4 273 930 3 662 040 2.10 2.06
BARLEY : 3 687 940 4 008 450 3.08 3.04
WINTER WHEAT : 23.612 450 19 280 240 2.43 2.73
RYE : 289 350 353 290 1.83 1.87
POTATOES :

SUMMER : 39 370 38 280 24.85 22.73

FALL TY : 440 180 426 500 31.43

TOTAL 1 : 515 370 499 750 30.74
FLUecuRED TOBACCO:

TYPES 11-14 : 191 540 174 420 2.38 2.30
APPLES, COM'L :
PEACHES 2/ :
PEARS :

CITRUS FRUITS 4/

GRAPEFRUIT
LEMONS

1/ YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1983 TO BE "RELEASED OCT 12, 1983. 2/ INCLUDES
CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE PEACHES AS FOLLOWS IN
METRIC TONS: 1982 - 72 120. 3/ ESTIMATES 1N OUN 1 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECASTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF LATE JUNE. 4/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF
THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING
YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 An4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


1,000 ACRES

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983

BUSHELS

52.0
62.0
62.0
56.0
61.0

B-1

62.0
61.0

42.0
65.0
56.0
63.0
68.0
45.0
50.0
53.0
56.0

2,080
2,046
2,480
2,800
5,490
3,174
11,800
6,080
56,000
7,520
308
2,400
1,102
28,350
107,580
3,198
7,650
24,650
336
18,200
4,845
62,100
23,800
33420
6,750
19,765
2,900

133,800

616,981

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



WINTER WHEAT

BUSHELS 1, 000 BUSHELS

825 470 32.0 34.0 24,860 26,400 15,980
64 62 84.0 90.0 3,569 5,376 5,580
1,760 1,375 39.0 39.0 67,650 68,640 53,625
1,000 650 70.0 60.0 92,400 70,000 39,000
3,000 2,950 28.0 35.0 83,875 84,000 103,250
49 43 42.0 41,0 1,720 2,058 1,763
1,480 970 33.0 34.0 46,010 48,840 32,980
920 800 57.0 62.0 55,680 52,440 49,600
1,500 1,350 45.0 46.0 92,500 67,500 62,100
1,080 970 43.0 47.0 62,100 46,440 45,590
100 50 30.0 38.0 3,000 1,900

13,200 11,150 35.0 40.0 462,000 446,000

675 580 39,0 35.0 26,325 20,300
500 250 38,0 29.0 19,000 7,250
136 120 45.0 42.0 6,120 5,040
600 700 41,0 = 50.0 24,600 35,000
86 80 34.5 36.0 2,967 2,880

1,050 600 38.0 34.0 39,900 20,400

2,230 1,900 34.0 38.0 75,820 72,200

2,120 2,280 38.0 35.0 80,560 79,800

2,900 2,300 35.0 41.0 101,500 94,300

15 11 70.0 70.0 1,050 770
48 35° 41.0 © 40.0 1,968 1,400
530 450 25.0 30.0 13,250 13,500
125 150 43.5 44.0 5,438 6,600
600 480 36.0 35.0 21,600 16,800
140 170, 34,0 33.0 3,510 4,760 5,610

1,250 1,150 44.0 51.0 72,600 += 55,000 58,650

6,900 4,300 33.0 37.0 172,800 227,700 159,100

1,100 970 55.0 63.0 73,200 60,500 61,110
228 215 36.0 = 38.0 9,720 8,208 8,170
550 400 36.0 29.0 14,350 19,800 11,600

1,100 1,200 34.0 38.0 30,420 37,400 45,600
935 630 36.0 34.0 37,400 «33,660 © 21, 420

6,000 4,600 24,0 34.0 183,400 144,000 156,400
233 185 34.0 = 37.0 8,225 7,922 6,845
370 320 38.0 9 41.0 -17,160 += 14,060 13,120

2,560 2,400 49.0 60.0 161,310 125,440 144,000

9 9 36.0 37.0 360 324 333
94 105 50.0 = 50.0 4,650 4,700 5,250
285 212 28.0 31.0 8,250 7,980 6,572

58,347 47,642 36.1 40.7 2,103, 538 2,108,246 1,937,388

WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

RED

t 1,000 BUSHELS

435,347 278,910 311,448 108,395 59,080 2,374,306
676,467 310,419 467,726 185,940 41,534 2,798,738
609,815 243,042 500,172 147,503 52,816 2,808,737
502,488 268,363

If INDICATED JULY 1, 1983,

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY (CONTINUED)
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

OATS 616,987 519,002
BARLEY 522,387 559,967
WINTER WHEAT 2,108,246 1,882,916 1,937,388
RYE 20,817 26,058
POTATOES

SUMMER 21,460 19,186

FALL 3/ so 304,986

TOTAL 1/ "3 349, 268
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO

TYPES 13-14 tB 1,006,432 882,750
PASTURE AND RANGE 2/ PCT
APPLES, COM*L tB 8,110,000 8, 402,000
PEACHES 3/ ". y 2,292,600 2,146,800 2,133,800
PEARS TON: 805.0 847.6
SWEET CHERRIES 4/ " 158.2 156.2
TART CHERRIES 4/ LB 310,900 141,900
APRICOTS TON 112.9 109.3 104.5
NECTARINES (CALIF) . 173.0 200.0 190.0
PLUMS (CALIF) " 178.5 180.0 170.0
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) * 126.0 135.0 135.0
ALMONDS (CALIF LB 347,000 260,000 250,000
WALNUTS (CALIF TON 234.0 210.0
OLIVES (CALIF) TON 146.0 66.0
CITRUS FRUITS 5/ 1981-82 1982-83

ORANGES BOX TIT, 790 BBY, 700

GRAPEFRUIT " 71,010 60,800 61,100

LEMONS « 24,800 26,000 25,200

1/_ YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1983 TO BE RELEASED OCT 12, 1983. ry) PASTURE
AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1972-81 AVERAGE IS 81
PERCENT. 3/ INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE
PEACHES AS FOLLOWS IN THOUSAND POUNDS: 1982 - 159,000. 4/ ESTIMATES IN JUN
1 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECASTS IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF LATE JUNE. 5/
SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION
OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


APPLES wcceseeeecececcee eee e eee eee e eee eee eee ees ase eeees B- 5

BARLEY ..

CHERRIES wseeeee

CITRUS FRUITS wevevecveceevereece beeen eer eeeenee eee ec ceccccacesecvese B- 8

CROP PROSPECTS MAPS 2... eee ee eee c nce ncencc erence nncseneesssseeeesece A- 7

MISCELLANEOUS FRUITS AND NUTS wecesvecsccccccsccccssscsceeeecsnvesene B- 7

OATS cence ce rene cence een e teen nen e este e eee n seers esate eeneeeneteeeenens B- 1

PAPAYAS, HAWAII .

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAPS .

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION TABLE ......seeee See ee ween eee neee wae B- 2

PEACHES ccccevecccecccrecccveseces ee ee eee ee ees B- 6
PEARS cosscusacasensncveeesvseecvesrene Bee cece rece c erence eeseeesenee B- 7
POTATOES coves ccc cee nccc eee s eens reese esse enna eee ee nese eee e nee teeees B- 9

POTATOES, FALL, PERCENT PLANTED BY TYPES AND CERTIFIED SEED .

seer eceecene B- 4

RYE ..e

TOBACCO, FLUE-CURED ..sceeevcccccccccsrcsevececnccsctenerescreetecene B- 4
US SUMMARY coccceveccccevcrvecnert reer esnreesneeeevereeeeeestesesens A- 2
WHEAT, BY CLASSES vc cccsceececccsccececrccnerennseseeerecees at eneeee B- 3

WHEAT, WINTER .ccecssceesevececere eee eee eee eee eee eee ey B- 3

* U.S, GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1983~380-929:SRS-1252

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 B-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(OOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PER ACRE
IND : : IND
1982 1983: 1982s 1983
: 1,000 ACRES
OATS Bu: 10,561 9,049 58.4 57.4
BARLEY " : 9,113 9,905 57.3 56.5
WINTER WHEAT " : 58,347 47,642 36.1 40.7
RYE "oo 715 873 29.1 29.8
POTATOES :
SUMMER ckT ot 96.8 94.6 222 203
FALL 1/ ®t 1,087.7 1,053.9 280
TOTAL 1/ " :  1,273.5 1,234.9 274
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO 3
TYPES 11-14 LB: 473.3 431.0 2,126 2,048
PASTURE AND RANGE 2/ PCT : 90 88
APPLES, COM'L LB:
PEACHES 3/ “2
PEARS TON:
SWEET CHERRIES 4/ . :
TART CHERRIES 4/ LB:
APRICOTS TON
NECTARINES (CALIF) "
PLUMS (CALIF) "
ORIED PRUNES (CALIF) *
ALMONDS (cate LB
WALNUTS (CALIF TON
OLIVES (CALIF) TON
CITRUS FRUITS 5/
BOX
GRAPEFRUIT ”
LEMONS .

1/_ YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1983 To BE RELEASED OCT 12, 1983. 2/ PASTURE
ANO RANGE FEEO CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1972-81 AVERAGE IS 81
PERCENT. 3/ INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE
PEACHES AS FOLLOWS IN THOUSAND POUNDS: 1982 ~ 159,000. 4/ ESTIMATES IN JUN
1 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECASTS IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF LATE JUNE. 5/
SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION
OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with
related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Crop Reporting Board which consists of commodity
statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

APPROVE D: CROP REPORTING BOARD:
W. H. Walther, Chairperson,
G. tL. Clampet, Secretary,

. DO. W. Barrowman, R. L. Schulte,
bt R. A. McGregor, R. L. Addison,
. ¢ M. A. Anderson, WwW. T. Brannen,

J. £. Brewster, da. S. Buche,

A. R. Budge, C. O. James,

0. C. Johnson, G. A. Nelson,
D. K. Wong.

ACTING SECRETARY oF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 Au2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


New York crop hurt by unusual spring weather, but fruit in generally good
condition. Spring freezes and poor pollination reduced the Michigan crop.

GRAPES: California crop expected to total 5.40 million tons (4.90 million

metric tons), off 12 percent from last year, 35 percent above 198).
Raisin type Production in California forecast at 2.75 million tons, down 12
percen rom 1982, 55 percent above 1981. Crop developing normally. Minimal
damage from winter and spring rains.

California wine type forecast, 2.10 million tons, down 13 percent from
1982, 17 percent more than 1981. Wine variety grapes in good condition on
July Ist. Young vines in San Joaquin Valley have heavier than expected set.
Some problem with shot berry. North Coast later than normal development.

Forecast for table type grapes in California, 550 thousand tons, down 9
percent from 1982, 31 percent more than 1981. San Joaquin Valley table grapes
good condition, but maturity stightly behind normal. Shipments Coachella
Valley table varieties record high.

SWEET CHERRIES: U.S. forecast, 156 thousand tons (142 thousand metric tons),

down 1 percent from 1982, up 2 percent from 1981. Idaho,
Michigan and Montana expect decreased production from 1982 while rest of
States expect increases. Pacific Coast States expect 123 thousand tons
compared with 112 thousand tons fa 1982, Harvest complete in California with
quality fair to good. Idaho had late June rain which reduced crop. Harvest
underway in New York. Picking started first week of dune in Washington.
Fruit sized well and quality good. Rain damaged some of Washington crop.

TART CHERRIES: U.S. forecast 142 million pounds (64.4 thousand metric tons)

less than half 1982 crop, up 7 percent from 1981. Great Lake
States expect to harvest 116 million pounds, 6) percent less than last year,
up 3 percent from 1981. Prospects increased in Utah, no major disease or pest
problems. Oregon’s crop unchanged from June.

APRICOTS: Forecast at 105 thousand tons (94.8 thousand metric tons), down 4

percent from last month, 7 percent below last year. California, at
100 thousand tons, down 5 percent from Tast month, 9 percent less than 1982
crop. Utah, at 1600 tons, up sharply from last year. Washington, at 2900
tons, up 7? percent from last year.

Weather in California generally cool but warm temperatures mid-June brought
crop on earlier than expected. Quality generally good; size excellent.
Harvest expected to be complete mid-July. June weather in Washington began
warm and cooled throughout month. Limited picking last week June. Fruit size,
quality good.

NECTARINES: Catifornia forecast, 190 thousand tons (172 thousand metric tons),

down 5 percent from last month, 10 percent higher than last year.
Higher than normal cullage due to small sizes and defects. As of July 1, 25
percent of crop harvested.

ORIED PRUNES: Califorata forecast unchanged at 135 thousand tons (122 thousand
metric tons), 7? percent more than last year, 15 percent below
1981. Fruit size expected smaller than last year, quality normal. Growers
report some scab and brown rot problems.

PLUMS: California forecast, 170 thousand tons (154 thousand metric tons), 6
Percent less than last month, 43 percent above small 1982 crop.

Higher than normal frutt drop reported for some major early and mid-season

varieties. Fruit quality good, size near normal. Pack sizes smaller and

defects higher than expected earlier. Thirty~two percent of crop harvested by

duly 1.

OLIVES: California forecast, 66.0 thousand tons (59.9 thousand metric tons),
55 percent less than record high 1982 crop, 47 percent above very

small 1983 production. Some older Manzanillo trees, the major variety, have

extremely light sets. Young trees had good bloom but reported shedding heavy.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 Ae}3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


BARLEY

: BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ARIZ : 63 35 105.0 109.0 4,085 6,615 3,815
CALIF : 620 500 62.0 57.0 40,320 38,440 28,500
COLO : 230 2to 74.0 74.0 18,600 17,020 15,540
DEL t 38 47 57.0 55.0 1,300 2,166 2,585
1 DAHO : 1,080 1,000 69.0 69.0 63,130 74,520 69,000
KANS z 57 85 41.0 48.0 1,664 2,337 4,080
KY z 30 25 45.0 38.0 2,016 1,350 950
MD : 97 89 59.0 58.0 5,040 5,723 5,162
MICH t 36 34 56.0 54.0 1,352 2,016 1,836
MINN 3 880 855 58.0 60.0 57,680 51,040 51,300
MONT : 1,560 1,850 49.0 46.0 56,760 76,440 85,100
NEBR 2 25 55 47.0 45.0 975 1,175 2,475
NEV : 32 31 80.0 75.0 1,650 2,560 2,325
NJ : 20 18 63.0 57.0 1,037 1,260 1,026
N MEX : 37 19 66.0 67.0 1,876 2,442 1,273
NC : 63 60 52.0 51.0 3,410 3,276 3,060
N DAK t 2,040 2,700 53.0 53.0 105,600 108,120 143,100
OKLA + 42 34 32.0 41.0 1,550 1,344 1,394
OREG 2 220 270 64.0 65.0 115700 14,080 17,550
PA : 72 70 52.0 55.0 4,104 3,744 3,850
sc 3 33 23 50.0 40.9 1,161 1,650 920
S DAK : 545 560 43.0 42.0 20,060 23,435 23,520
TEX z 35 45 46.0 52.0 2,100 1,610 2,340
UTAH t 161 154 82.0 75.0 11,088 13,202 11,550
VA 3 100 90 57.0 60.0 5,917 5,700 5,400
WASH 3 810 850 61.0 70.0 44,080 49,410 59,500
WYA t 8 9 49.0 50.0 550 392 450
WIS 2 35 35 56.0 58.0 1,550 1,960 2,030
wyo t 144 152 65.0 68.0 8,978 9,360 10,336

522,387

: AVERAGE AVERAGE
: 1972-81 ’ 1972-81

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND QVER; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50- 6.
DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

SEVERE

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1983 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA