SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

AREA MARVESTEG YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE awn e nnn nn een amen ewer n ncn e een ace n enn ne mene anne ene enon eeeeeneseene
Inp 3 ry 2 IND 3 : 3 INO
1981 § 1982 3 1980 1981 1982
4,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA 1/2 34 56 To 33.0 37.0 40.0 1,122 2,146 2,800
ARIZ 3 26 26 12 75.0 83,0 7820 1,950 2,156 936
ARK : 203 298 256 29,0 57.0 60.0 5,887 16,986 15,000
CALIF) 3 152 138 158 73.0 74.0 7440 117096 10,212 117692
coLo 3 350 3b5 400 35.0 35.0 35.0 12,250 12,775 14,000
GA iss 82 135 125 24.0 33.0 36.0 1,968 4,455 4,500
Tu ost 62 86 60 39,0 63.0 68,0 3,658 5,544 5,440
IND 41s 8 12 13 52.0 60.0 70.0 416 720 910
TOwA 1/2 19 20 18 70.0 88.0 67.0 1,330 16760 1,206
KANS : By, MBG 3,560 3,300 43.0 67.0 61,0 149,640 238,520 201,300
ky isi 26 30 38 50.0 75.0 70.0 1,300 2,250 2,660
La ast 14 72 155 34,0 3640 37.0 476 2,592 5,735
MISS 1/2 36 88 110 35,0 44,0 50.0 1,330 3,872 5,500
mo : 860 940 850 48.0 30.0 81.0 41,280 75,200 68,850
NEBR 3 2,030 2,060 1,700 60.0 80.0 79,0 121,800 164,800 134,300
N MEX ot 257 272 280 40.0 45.0 45. 10,280 12,240 12,600
NC 4s 62 76 70 36,0 53.0 51.0 2,232 4134 3,570
OKLA : 480 ses 450 34,0 42.0 41,0 16,320 22,050 18,450
PA ae: 5 50.0 250
sc ist 15 18 35 22.0 32.0 40.0 330 576 1,400
S OAK "3 3e5 455, 400 33,0 43,0 45.0 10,725 19,565 18,000
TENN 1/3 35 7 70 42,0 56,0 55.0 1,470 3,752 3,850
TEX : 3,950 4,410 $,200 46.0 62,0 55.0 181,700 273,420 286,000
vA ast +9 11 12 43,0 49,0 49.0 387 539 588
us 2 12,522 13,726 13,796 46.3 64,1 59.4 579,197 880,266 619,287

1/ ESTIMATES FOK CURRENT YEAK CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1960 CROP,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA




In the Western States -- Arizona, California and New Mexico -- Upland production is forecast
at 4.23 million bales, 19 percent below 198] but up 1 percent from the August 1 forecast.
Prospects in California were improved by ideal weather conditions, while the Arizona forecast
was lowered due to greater than normal shedding of fruit or lower branches.

The Bureau of the Census reports 453,402 running bales ginned to September 1 compared with
426,516 bales ginned to the same date in 1981 and 582,217 bales ginned before September 1 in
1980. .

COTTONSEED: Production for 1982, based on a three year average lintseed ratio, is forecast at
4.39 million tons (3.98 million metric tons), 31 percent below 1981 production.

DRY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry edible beans in 1982 is forecast at 26.0 million hundred-

weight (1.18 million metric tons), down 18 percent from a year ago and 2
percent less than the August 1 forecast. The average yield per acre this year is forecast at
1409 pounds, down from 1445 pounds in 1981 and 1449 pounds in 1980. Average yields are forecast
at or below last year's level in all States except Michigan, Idaho and Washington.

Weather conditions during August varied widely. Warm weather improved yield potential in
Washington, Idaho, and Wyoming. Heavy frost on August 27 covered widespread areas of North
Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Damage varied from light to severe. Overall, crop
development progressed rapidly during the month in all States. Harvest is beginning in
Michigan, California, Colorado and Washington and reports indicate good quality beans. In
Idaho, the bean crop got off to a slow start but good weather throughout the State during August
helped’ the crop make significant gains. Hail in the Panhandle area of Nebraska and disease
problems in the southwest area of the State decreased yield prospects from last year. Fungus
and blight were found in isolated fields in Colorado.

POTATOES: Summer potato production in the U.S. is forecast at 20.6 million cwt (934 thousand

metric tons), up 1 percent from August 1 and 3 percent above a year ago. The average
yield forecast, at 236 cwt per acre, is.up 5 cwt from last year. Area for harvest is estimated
at 95.5 thousand acres (38.7 thousand hectares), up 1 percent from last year.

Virginia harvest was near completion by September 1. Production prospects are 7 percent
less than last month and 4 percent below Jast year. Output in Alabama of 1.29 million cwt is 5
percent below last year. Delaware growers reported another good year. With harvest 90 percent
complete, it appears that last year's record yield per acre will be equalled. Crop development
in New Jersey was slowed by cool weather and dry soils. The State's potato crop output of 2.03
million cwt is 2 percent below last year.

Summer potato forecasts in mid-Western States are up from last year and most showed
improvement from August 1.- Michigan and Minnesota crops are both up 7 percent from last year.
Michigan production is forecast at 1.56 million cwt; while Minnesota growers expect a total of
1.76 million cwt. Indiana prospects are 54 percent above last year with harvest generally
completed. Ohio is up 18 percent and Illinois is up 5 percent. Illinois harvest is about half
completed. -

Harvest remains active on the Texas High Plains but some growers have completed harvest.
Production prospects are set at 1.96 million cwt, 27 percent above last year. The crop in
Colorado is rated good to very good with harvest about 35 percent completed. Yield prospects
are up from last year but there were fewer acres planted. Harvest of California's crop is past
the peak but should continue through September. The crop progressed well and excellent growing
conditions have resulted in good quality potatoes.

1981 REVISED

The estimate of the 1981 potato crop (all four seasons) in the U.S. has been revised to 339
million cwt (15.4 million metric tons), 12 percent more than in 1980 but 1 percent below 1979
output. Harvested area was 1.24 million acres (501 thousand hectares), a gain of 7 percent over
1980 but 3 percent short of 1979. The 1981 average yield was a record high at 274 cwt per acre,
up from the previous high of 270 cwt set in 1979.

Fall, potato production was revised to 296 million cwt (13.4 million metric tons), up 11
percent from 1980 but fractionally below 1979 production. Area harvested was set at 1.05
million acres (426 thousand hectares), an increase of 7 percent over the previous year, but 2
percent less than the 1979 acreage. Average yield was record high at 281 cwt per acre, up 9 cwt
1980 and 4 cwt above 1979.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT

AREA HARVESTED 1 YLELO t PRODUCTION
STATE fawn me ewennnenanenencenncenaennnsessnnemecenneennewanesnccnennnnernneeeennssesensonas
’ ’ IND 4 ' ' IND 5 ' ' IND
’ 1980 3 1983 t 4982 : 1980 & 1981 & 1982 8 1980 § 1981 ¢ 1982

1,000 BUSHELS

25,5 44,0 32,0 65630 24,860 27,200
80,0 83,0 84,0 4,800 3,569 5,376
38,0 41,0 39,0 32,870 67,650 68,640
74,0 77.0 70,0 77,700 92,400 70,000
32,0 27.5 28,0 107,200 83,875 85,400
40,0 40.0 43,0 1,080 1,720 2,107
33,0 43,0 19,800 46,010 47,360
57.0 56,0 54,870 55.680 52,440
48,0 50,0 75360 92,500 66,150
49,0 46,0 53,900 62,100 45,360
38,0 39,0 34496 4,485 3,800
35,0 25,0 920,000 305,000 462,000
39,5 42,0 13,625 28,560 26,325
28,0 42,0 1,876 11,550 20,500

38,0 a1,0 3,686 5,617 5,796
44,0 50,0 35,200 4t,500 254600
34,0 37,0 2,346 4,625 3,096

31,0 40,0
43,0 42,0

9,300 24,000 39,900
89,010 115,500 74,800
54,825 89,250 87,400

38,0 36,0 106,300 106,200 103,250

65.0 7040 780 1,050 1,050

43,0 42,0 1,849 25352 2,279

21,0 18,0 10,500 9,000 12,650

40,0 44,0 6,000 7,040 5,200

35,0 39,0 10,500 15,990 17,260
45,0 27,0 1,050
49,0 48,0 674130
30,0 27,0 195,000
60,0 61,0 72,000
228 «= 37,0 36,0 94250
410 600 36,0 35,0 65912
1,170 1,100 22,0 26,0 20,900
650 94s 38,0 44,0 17,100
6,550 6,000 25,0 28,0 130,000
227 219 34,0 33,0 7,502
390 390-3740 44,0 10,582
2,830 2,560 52.0 $7.0 143,000
10 9 38,0 36,0 3a2
93 97 «44,5 5000 = 50,0 3,652
275 280 28,0 30,0 24,0 8,260

58,589 58,498 36,8 35.8

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF SEPTEMBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield surveys taken about
September 1. The yield surveys included mailed reports from farmers for all crops and actual
field observations and measurements for corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat, and some fruit and nut
crops. Farmers provided appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops
on their farms and for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot
observations, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These surveys are subject to
sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common to all surveys. More importantly, the
production forecasts are subject to change due to future weather effects and other factors that
cannot be measured currently but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in this report, the
“Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is shown below for
selected crops. This is computed by expressing the deviations between the September 1 produc-
tion forecasts and the final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the
squared percentage deviations for the 1962-81 twenty year period; the square root of this average
becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concern-
ing expected differences in the current forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates,
assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing
recent years.

For example, the “Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain production
forecast is 5.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production
forecast of 8319 million bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.1
percent or approximately 424 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence
level) that the difference will not exceed 8.8 percent or approximately 732 million bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between
the September | forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between
the September 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 319
million bushels, ranging from 98 million to 671 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has
been below the final estimate 8 times and above 2 times. This does not imply that the September
1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. For most
crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final estimates is about
equally distributed.

RELIABILITY OF SEPTEMBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

TEN YEAR RECORD OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
eeeecseneeeennneeee FORECAST AND FINAL ESTIMATE

CROP AND
UNIT

FEED GRAINS 1/ 8 2 7 8 2
CORN FOR GRAIN 319 98 671 8 2
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 25 0 63 4 6
OATS 23 1 48 1 9
BARLEY 4 2 28 7 3
ALL WHEAT 16 9 43 5 5

QURUM 3 Q 7 4 6

OTHER SPRING 4 0 9 7 3
RICE 4 1 7 5 5
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 70 14 123 5 5
COTTON 561 36 1,660 6 4

VY CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY,
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP AND STATE

FILBERTS
OREG
WASH
us

WALNUTS
CALIF

15,409 14,700 17,000

225,000 220,000

COFFEE

PRODUCTION

1979-1980

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 8-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


40

36

oo)

35

75

46

205

as

4o0

iro

6

43

eo

3 340

: 1,436

3 au

3 110

NEBR : 380 395
NJ se 7 7
wy 3 230 286
nC ase 75 03
N DAK 3 450 909
OHIO. 3 290 270
OKLA 1st 100 105
ORES 3 0 oS
PA 3 340 B45
sc ase 40 4b
S DAK 3 1,500 1eb40
TENN 1/2 12 16
TEX Wad 340 aio
UTAH 1/3 1s 14

1,900 ACRES

10,379

OATS

YIeLv

BUSHELS

42.0 59.0 55.0
63.0 60, 62,0
6260 60,0 38,0
S1l.0 50.0 52.0
33.0 66.0 55.0

4,050
13,500
19,430
3,900
4,140
19,040
1,960
66,000
552
12,560
915
900
14869
539
58,743

tf ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIeD FORWARU FROM EARLIER FOKECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982

PRODUCTION

1,000 BUSHELS

2,360
2,100
3,600
1,730
4,500
2,760
13,530
5,525
59,520
8,500
208
3,010
1,100
21,080
90,090
4,590
4,840
15,405
385
17,920
4,399
44,160
17010
3,760
4,550
20,010
2,208
701520
B16
18,860
198
940

1,600

AREA HARVESTEL

1,504
714
47,940
2,530

599,008

B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PEANUTS FOK NUTS

PRODUCTION

1982 t 1980 2

1,000 ACRES POUNDS
:

ALA st 2e2.0 177.0 1,325 2,715 2,850 265,000 602,730
FLA : 60.0 51.0 2,600 24970 34150 143,000 178,200
GA oss 565.0 485.0 1,935 2,930 3,100 994,590 1,655,450
MIss 2/3 6.7 +0 = 4,250 1,900 0 7,500 12,730 o
N MEX 3/8 96 9.9 2,540 2,530 2,600 22,352 24,288 «25, 740
NC : 177.0 107.0 1,755 3,175 2,800 291,330 561,975 411,600
OKLA it 91.0 83.0 1,335 2,080 27100 4017S = :189,280 174,300
sc ist 15.0 12.0 1,100 2,600 2,450 14,300 39,000 29,400
TEX 2 230.0 242.0 220.0 1,275 1,625 1,550 293,250 393,250 341,000

vA #10120 105.0 95.0 1,285 3,150 2,900 129,785 330,750 275,500
US 1/8 1,398.8 1,49353  1,279,9 1,605 2,670 2,677 2,301,262 3,987,653 3,426,140

1/ REVISED 1982 PLANTED ACREAGE IN THOUSAND ACRES: ALA, 178,03 GA, 490.05
8 Cy 12,0 AND U Sy 1/309.0,

2/ ESTIMATES OISCONTINUED AFTER 1981 CROP,

3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORMARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTON

crop AREA HARVESTED YIELD. : PRODUCTION 1/

2 IND S 5
1981 ¢ 1982 ¢

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 27
396.0

372.0 300.0 ait sas
509.0 599.0 989,0 1,188 1,247
645.0 560.0 425.0 330 518
1,540.0

422.0

270.0

7,200.0 3,700.0 a3 376 2,350.0

3 3 3
13,7832 9,232.62 402 542 10,9375

33.6 39.8
“0 0
O69

1,540.
3.
160.0
560.0
1,125.0

2/ PRODUCTION GINNEO AND TO BE GINNED,
‘2/ @B0-LB, NET WEIGHT BALES,
“B/VESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 8-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



ALL WHEAT

PRODUCTION

t : 3
: 1960 3 1981 3 1962 t 1980 t 1981 i9e2 ¢ 1980 3 1981 8 1982

t 1,000 ACRES “BUSHELS 4,000 BUSHELS
565 44.0 32.0 24,860 27,200
258 47.3 21,888 = 12, 486.
= 1,650 39.0 67,650 68,640
1,365 72.6 107,085 81,625
3,108 28.7 87,394 68 925
43 43.0 1,720 2,107
1,070 32.0 46,010 47, 360
1,510 61,6 89,780 92,460
1,850 45.0 92,500 66, 150
1,350 42.0 62,100 45, 360
11s 38,0
12,000 12,200 35.0
350 680 39.0
67 275 41.0
7 137 42.0
800 830 40.0
3,169 3,610 40,8
300 600 36.0
2,070 20750 3440
5,100 5,820 36.2
2,850 2,950 35.0
29 31 65.2
43 56 43.0
500 500 23,0
150 160 40.0
300 410 36,0
9,620 11,690 10,545 31.9
370 1,650 1,250 43.0
6,500 6,400 6,900 33.0
1,350 1,310 1,200 53,8
250 270 228 38.0 35.0
192 410 600 36.0
3,295 3,820 3,545 33 3 2861
450 850 94s 44.0 37.0
5,200 6,550 6,000 28.0 © 28.0 183,400 144,000
272 257 ase 34,5 32.6 8,856 8,220
286 390 390 44,0 © 35.0 17,160 13,650
3 3,160 3,050 2,840 3542 4640 168,350 130,680
WA 4/3 9 10 9 35.0 360 3M
WIS 1/3 114 12t 125 isis eto 5,518 5,746
wo 1/8 315 204 297 29.7 24.3 8,430 7,233
U8 + 70,984 80,948 «78,964 «= «3354 «$455 «3557 2,378,306 2,793,436 2,615,808

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST,

WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

T HARD
' RED RED WHITE ¢ REO DuRUM WHITE ¢

1,000 BUSHELS

3
1979 ' 1,068,918 316,698 195,618 362,891 106,654 63,261 2,134,060
: 1¢161,126 435,347 276,910 311,448 106,395 59,080 2,37 06
1981 3 4,195,465 673,316 309,938 467,566 165,940 41,211 2,793,436
1982 1/7 ¢ 1,262,502 604,849 238, 798 512,905 147,535 46,919 2,815,508

1/ INDICATED SEPTEMBER 1, 1982,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX

-o
>
a
m

BARLEY ...ceeecececeeeccsccereeeee ee eeeeeee Se cceecscccvesece
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE .
COFFEE .....++..4. .
CORN FOR GRAIN . .
COTTON ...... o
COTTONSEED ......20005
CROP PROSPECTS MAPS ..
FLAXSEED ..
GRAPES
HOPS ..
LEMONS
NUTS coc ccc c ccc e eee s scene cece ence nen eeeneeeeeseenaees
OATS .... .
PAPAYAS-HAWATI ..csccecccscccecsccetserscsecerenseteneens
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION ....
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAPS .
PEANUTS FOR NUTS .oseccesceececescece
PEARS .ecceeeee

PECANS ..
POTATOES ......
PRUNES AND PLUM:
RICE .ccceseceeeee .
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN ....cececesccceccccccscceees .
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS . .

SUGARBEETS ....ceceeeeeece
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED
SWEETPOTATOES .....eeeeeee
TOBACCO BY STATES .....ceceescceeceenee
US SUMMARY ...... .

WHEAT, BY CLASSES .

1
ay

trrrerviredre
ao! oth =

1 '
AYIANTNWNOWWHOHNMNHHDRHPOVAHDWIUTHWHAOHOWOHNUOS

PE PPRWDVBODT PVM SRVIVVIVOVTEODOTID

WHEAT, ALL ... B-
WHEAT, DURUM B-
WHEAT, OTHER SPRING ...... . B-
WHEAT, WINTER ..cccecccceccccecceteecereseeeeeeeeseeneeeeenre B-

3eU.S, GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1982-360-929:5RS-745

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PAPAYAS: Hawaii fresh papaya production in September is forecast at 3.30 million pounds (1500

metric tons), up one percent from August, but down 44 percent from a year ago. Fresh *
production is expected to increase steadily in the coming months. October production is
forecast at 3.60 million pounds (1630 metric tons), an increase of 9 percent from September. It
is anticipated that November will be up 8 percent from October. Fresh production in December is
expected to drop to 3.40 million pounds (1540 metric tons), 13 percent below November.

For the most part, weather is responsible for the poor yields experienced by papaya growers
this year. While most areas suffered only fruit losses, Kauai lost a substantial number of
bearing trees. Harvested acreage there has dropped 55 percent from last year. Full recovery on
Kauai is not expected for at least a year when recent plantings will begin to bear.

August fresh papaya production in estimated at 3.26 million pounds (1480 metric tons), down
10 percent from July, as production dropped off sharply in the second half of August. Compared
with a year ago, August production was down 24 percent. Area harvested in August is estimated
at 2145 acres (870 hectares), down one percent from July and virtually unchanged from a year ago.

Based on forecasts for the remaining months, 1982 fresh papaya production is expected to
total 43.3 million pounds (19.6 thousand metric tons), down 26 percent from last year’s all-time
record high total of 58.2 million pounds (26.4 thousand metric tons) marketed for fresh use.

PECANS: The season's first forecast for the 1982 U.S. pecan crop is nearly 208 million pounds
(94.2 thousand metric tons), in-shell basis, 39 percent less than last year's very large
crop, but 13 percent above the 1980 production. About 71 percent of the crop is expected to be
from improved varieties compared with 51 percent im 1981 and 70 percent in 1980. The Georgia
forecast is 110 million pounds, 8 percent below last year's crop, but 5 percent above 1980. The
season to date has been very rainy with considerable cloud cover which is conducive to fungus
disease formation. Producers have sprayed repeatedly for fungus, scab and white mold control.
Non-treated groves will have heavy infestation. The abundant moisture supplies have caused nuts
to overfill with fluids and this has resulted in heavy shedding of Schleys and rupturing of
Wichita variety nuts. Limb breakage is extensive, but this is due to exceptionally heavy
foliage, in addition to the heavy nut load.

The pecan crop in Alabama is forecast at 20.0 million pounds, 41 percent below last year,
but the same as 1980 production. Louisiana expects a crop of 12.0 million pounds, 50 percent
below last year and 14 percent less than 1980. The Oklahoma crop forecast is for 5.00 million
pounds, 89 percent below last year. The poor crop is the result of a late spring frost, heavy
insect infestations and hot, dry weather in August. Some areas of the State are experiencing a
near total crop loss. The Texas crop forecast, at 25.0 million pounds, is down 60 percent from
last year, but more than twice as large as the small crop harvested in 1980. &xcess heat and
the lack of moisture have caused improper filling of nuts and increased droppage. The crop fore-
cast in New Mexico is 18.0 million pounds, 10 percent below last year, but 22 percent above the
1980 crop. There is a large number of young trees now producing. The smaller crop than Tast
year is primarily due to smaller nut sizes.

FILBERTS: Production of filberts in Oregon and Washington is forecast at a record high 17.0

thousand tons (15.4 thousand metric tons), in-shell basis, up 16 percent from last
year's production and 10 percent above the 1980 crop. Many new plantings are coming into
Production. Nut set is excellent but size is below normal. Growing conditions point to an
excellent crop although some nuts show evidence of brown stain.

WALNUTS: The September 1 California walnut forecast is 220 thousand tons (200 thousand metric
tons), in-shell basis, up 10 percent from last month's forecast, but 2 percent below

last year's record high production. Nut sets are excellent with large sizes expected. Quality

is anticipated to be better than normal as soundness in-hull is the highest im recent years.

Harvest peak will be about mid-October.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


U.S. CORN PRODUCTION

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: Grain sorghum production is forecast at 819 million bushels (20.8 million

metric tons), down 7 percent from 1981, but 41 percent more than the 1980
drought-stricken crop. Yield per harvested acre is expected to average 59.4 bushels, 4.7
bushels Tess than last year's record high yield, but 13.1 bushels above 1980.

Crop development is behind schedule in Kansas, and two to three weeks later than normal in
Nebraska. Dryland sorghum is being stressed by extremely dry conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma.
Harvest has started in Missouri and is well underway in Texas. Kansas and Oklahoma yields are
both off 3 bushels from the August 1 forecast; Nebraska yields declined 1 bushel while Texas is
unchanged. Generally favorable conditions led to a 3 bushel? increase in Missouri's yield.

OATS: Oats production is forecast at 599 million bushels (8.69 million metric tons), up 18 per-

cent from 1981 and 31 percent above 1980. Seven of the 13 major producing States are
expecting yield increases over last year resu?ting in a record high National yield of 57.7
bushels per acre. This yield is 3.7 bushels above last year and 1.8 bushels above the previous
record high set in 1971. .

Harvest is nearing completion in Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota. In North Dakota, the
harvest was 87 percent completed on September 5, compared with last year's 93 percent and the
average of 84 percent.

BARLEY: The 1982 barley crop is forecast at a record high 516 million bushels (11.2 million

metric tons), up 8 percent from last year and 43 percent more than the drought damaged
1980 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at a ‘Yvecord high 56.2 bushels surpassing by 3.9 bushels,
the previous record set in 1981, and 0.8 bushel above the August 1 forecast. While average
yields in most States were unchanged from a month’ earlier, prospects in Montana, North Dakota
and Utah improved and all three expect record high yields. Nationally, area for harvest, at
9.19 million acres (3.72 million hectares), is up fractionally from 1981.

Harvest of this year's crop, is underway or complete in all areas of the Nation. In North
Dakota, 84 percent of the crop was harvested by August 29th. This compares with 91 percent last
year and a 5-year average of 77 percent. Montana's crop developed well in August with mostly
favorable weather. By the end of the month, 40 percent had been harvested, considerably Tess
than the average of 55 percent. Harvest in other major producing areas ranged from complete in
California to 50 percent complete in Idaho.

ALL WHEAT: Producers expect to harvest a record high 2.82 billion bushels (76.6 million metric

tons) of all types of wheat in 1982. The current estimate is up 2 percent from the
August 1 forecast, is 1 percent above the previous record high production set in 1981, and 19
percent above production in 1980. The 1982 harvested acreage is down from last year, but higher
yields in 1982 more than offset the acreage decline. Nationally, yield per harvested acre is
expected to average a record high 35.7 bushels compared with the previous record of 34.5 bushels
last year and 33.4 bushels in 1980. Area for harvest is expected to total 79.0 million acres
(32.0 million hectares), down 2 percent from last year.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


GRAPES

PROOUCTIUN

CROP AND STATE

3 TOTAL 1¢ t TMD

TONS

GRAPES TABLE TYPE

ALIF 428,000 429,000 500,000
GRAPES WINE TYPE
CALIF 2,004,000 1,794,000 2,100,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE ONTED
CALIF $09,000 256,000
GRAPES RAISIN WOT DRIED
CALIF 1,080,000 755,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE
CALIF 2,692,000 16779, 000 2,500,000
ALL GRAPES.
ARIZ 12,400 12,400 14,000
ARK « 6,600 64000 8,500
CALIF : 5,124,900 3,993,000 5,100,000
MICH 3 49,500 53,000 55,000
cr) ark 4,200 2,200 2,400
Ny z 175-000 150.000 1664000
nc as 5,800 5,100 6,000
OHIO ay 12,000 10,300 1o,5v0
Pa 56,000 1,000 55,000
WASH 145,100 159,000 157,000
OTHER STATES ass 4,900 $4000 S,2u0
us 5,595,100 4,457,600 5,579,600

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION ANU HARVESTED WOT SOLD
(TONS)? US 1940"500, 1931-b00,
2/ WRIED BASIS, 1 TOM UF KATSINS 15 EMULVALENT TO 5,22
TONS OF FRESH GRAPES FOk 196u AKL 4.00 TUNS FOR 1981,
3/ FRESH EVIVALENT OF DRI ANB WUT OKIED,
4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CANRIEC FORWARU FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
5/ GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAKULINA,

Prue AND PLUAS

: PROOUCTION

TOTAL 14 Iv

CRUP AND STATE

PRUNES (ORIED BASIS)

ALIF 168,000 159,000 130,000
PRUNES AMO PLUMS

Tvano 8,000 7,500 6,800

WICH 2 12,500 16,000 10,000

ORES 2 35,000 30,000 30,000

WASH 2 23,100 £4,600 10,000

TOTAL @ STATES 3 76,600 68,100 56,800

1/ PRUNES ANU PLUMS = INCLUDES UNHARKVESTED PROOUCTION
AND HARVESTEO NOT SOLO (TONS)? 1S 198104/500,

CITRUS FRUIT

3 PRODUCTION 3 PRODUCTION
crop BOKES : TON EQUIVALENT
AND. UTILIZED S INDICATED
Pemerennerenen, 2 Precenneesennnmnennet
1981082 2 1982083

STATE 21900081 2 1981-82 F 1982083 2 1900-81

1,000 UNITS 27 1,000 UNITS
LeMons
64300 74700 ave 239 293
3/550 3,800 112 135 144

ARIZ
CALIF DESERT AREA

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS wITH THE BLUOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENOS RITH YEAR HARVEST I8 COMPLETED.
2/ NET LBS PER BOX? LEMONS = 76.

GROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982

15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA



AREA PLANTED, POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP

32 SEASON

AL GROUP
AND

2
rs
®

: t
1980 2 198) 3 1962 32 4980 3 1961
STATE 3 a 2
ee 2
3 1,000 ACRES
WINTER ALL 1/ 3
CALIF CALIF a 17.4 18,7
FLA cele 3 37,0 406d
Coun 2 1.8 1.8
TOTAL Tan 23.0 24.0
sOTREN Cur 262.0 B1ieod
SPRING tev 3.0 3.35
ALA MALNE 105.0 + 19,0
ARIZ MASS: 3a 5.3
CALIF MICH 32.5 32.0
FLASHASTINGS MINT 65.0 73.0
OTHER rast 7.0 7>
La REAR 6.9 0.0
nec KE 13,0 12.0
TEX nm Yetons Is 19.0 14.5
UPSTATE 26.0 26,5
TOTAL N GAK 114.0 119.9
OMI 1069 v3
SUMMER UREGHALHEUR 10.3 10.3
ACA S0THER CO 37.3 44.7
CacIe 23.0 22.0
CuLo 5.2 3.2
OEL ToS 5.5
TL 5.3 5.9
IND +6 7
Tuna AT. 106.0
sD $2.5 Sbeu
HICH 5.6 5.5
moet
NEBR 1,002.3 1,079.7
a)
N REX 1,162.0 1,263.0 1,508.8
noe
OHIO
TENN
TEX
vA
TOTAL,

1/ 1981 REVISED,

AREA HARVESTED 3 YIELO

PRODUCTION

STATE
: IND t

1,000 POUNDS

ALA 510 826

conn 3,300 3,200 2,400 1,764 1,650 5,262 5,605 3,960
FLA 9,600 9,600 9,000 2,380 2,300 = 20,448 §=— 22, 848 20, 700
GA 35,000 55,000 52,v00 2,200 2,150 110,550 121,000

IND 7,300 8,300 9,006 2,265 2,350 16,790 18,400 21, 150
Ky 200,900 234,6u0 236,400 2,172 2,375 420,662 509,576 561,450
uA 30 20 se

4D 23,000 = 25, 000 1,325 25,300 34,450
MASS 1,190 1,340 1,650 1,887 825
HO 24500 2,400 2,300 5,263 1076 6/670
NC 383,700 373,700 2,100 762,407 795,909 678,405
OHTO 41,200 00 1,925 20,020 22,854 = 26, S65
PA 13,000 13,300 1,900 24,700 27,265 24,700
sc 65,000 69,006 2,100 125,450 149,580 121,800
TENN 64,760 74,650 2,050 111,931 161,463 167,465
va 65/360 73,340 1,925 106,875 157,843 121,275
wova 1,200 1,500 1,650 1,800 2,430 2,640
wis. 12,900 13,400 1,925 25,965 26,071 20,598
us 920,520 975,680

2,131 1,786,192 2,062,375 1,924,473

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP,

2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1981 CROP,

3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



2) 6o00 to excotent
EZ Poor to tair
EB very poor
(EX) severe drought
EE Extreme crought

‘sIndicates current supply of pasture feed for grazing on non-irrigated pastures and ranges relative to that expected
from existing stands under very favorable weather conditions

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS*
‘September 1, 1982

Z j

As reported by
Crop Correspondents

1s

EZ) Poor to tar
EB very poor
[EX] Severe drought
EB extreme drought

USDA

‘sIndicates current supply of pasture foed for grazing on non-irrigated pastures and ranges relative to that expected
from existing stands under very favorable weather conditions.

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS*

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FEED CROP PROSPECTS*

SRS

LE) G00 to excatient <2
C2 reir

3 roo

(2) very poor

(EB esr taiure

‘*Relative conditions or prospects as indicated by reports from crop correspondents on ‘all crops’
USDA SRS

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS; USDA -


CORN FOR GRAIN

3. AREA HARVESTED : YIELD : PRODUCTION

STATE Beenewnnnerenenecnennennennener en neeqennernennerenneneenecnne
3 : ? Ind : : IND ¢
z 1980 ¢ 1981 3 1982 1980 1981 2 1962: 1980

+ INO
1961 &

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 SUSHELS
423 620 450 36,0 55,0 15,226 34,100 27,000
40 35 30 100.0 = 130.0 4,000 4,550 3,750
37 a9 30 28.0 65.0 1,036 3,185 1,890
270 275 310 135.0 130.0 36,450 35,750 40,300
760 790 850 -118,0 © 137.0 89,680 108,230 110,500
177 184 475 72.0 12,74 15,023 17,150
326 327 245 47.0 15,416 1 6S 15,190
1,300 1,380 790 42,0 54,600 00 59,250
50 62 55 105.0 5,250 2820 6,325
12,460 11,260 11,300 93.0 1,065,780 1,452,540 1,536,600
6,280 6,000 6,300 96.0 602,880 654,000 787,500
13,300 13,700 13,200 110.0 124,0 1,463,000 1,739,900 1,636,800
1,180 4,260 1,240 94.0 118.0 110,920 158,760 146,320
1,480 1,490 1,500 7000 102,0 103,600 149,000 153,000
30 33 aa 46.0 65,0 1,380 2,409 2,660
640 690 680 72.0 46,080 722450 68,000
2,600 2,850 2,600 95.0 247,000 273,600 294,000
6,290 6,770 ~" 6,350 97,0 610,130 744,700 698,500
88 11s 90 28.0 27464 67440 5,560
2,070 1,940 1,930 53.0 109,710 213,400 202,650
8 10 10 74,0 $92 850 850
7,100 67980 6/900 85.0 603,500 802,700 786,600
11s 425 ai2 75.0 8,850 12,375 10,436
8s 75 87 85.0 7,225 97000 9,570
730 800 760 93.0 67,890 74,400 66,680
1,730 1,830 1,650 60.0 103,800 910 145,200
290 513 600 58,0 16,820 44,553 44,400
3,900 3,750 4,100 113.0 440,700 360,000 475,690
75 5S 35 70,0 5,250 3,850 4,675
13 22 - 24 110.0 1,430 2,750 3,000
1,280 1,400 1,370 75.0 96,000 134,400 126,080
515 S70 340 48,0 24,720 334060 28,900
27300 2,580 2,500 53.0 121,900 180,600 180,000
640 640 600 46.0 29,440 55-040 51,000
41,7300 1,090 2,150 9000 117,000 te: 30 115,000
15 15 15 100.0 1,500 1,578
$95 625 620 55.0 32,725 56,250 572040
1s3 88 103 190 125,0 11,000 12,875 24,700
WA Ls8 $8 68 69 89.0 S162 67,256 6/447
wis ’ 3,350 3,500 3,450 10440 348,400 378,000 362-250
wro vst 37 46 Se 97.0 3,589 5,060 5,200
us. 3. 73,030 74,624 73,023 91.0 113.9 6,644,841 8,200,951 8,318,678

U/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT. YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,.
'2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FoR SILAGE,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Cotton was in fair to mostly good condition, Boll set was virtually complete by the end of
August and many fields showed open bolls. Harvest had started in Mississippi and was 14 percent
complete in Texas by September 5, about equal to average. Prolonged dryness in parts of Texas
caused droppage of bolls and stowed development of late-planted fields. Insect problems
increased during the month in Arizona's cotton fields. Spraying was active in many areas.

Sorghum was in fair to mostly good condition. In the 7 major producing States, heading of
grain sorghum advanced to 91 percent by September 5. Coloring was evident in all
States--ranging from 10 percent in Nebraska to 75 percent in Texas. The Texas harvest was 65
percent complete, only 1 point behind average. Plants matured rapidly under the hot weather.
Harvest was active as far northern as the Low Plains of Texas.

Winter wheat harvest was stil) active at the end of the month in the northern-most States.
Plowing for the 1983 crop became more widespread. Seeding of the 1983 crop started on a limited
basis. The Kansas crop was 2 percent seeded, the Nebraska and Montana crops were each 5 percent
seeded, and the Texas crop was 6 percent seeded. Producers in Texas and Oklahoma delayed
seeding in hopes of rain. Dry conditions were also evident in parts of Kansas. In the 5 major
producing States, spring wheat was 75 percent harvested by September 5, lagging last year's 93
percent and the average of 79 percent. Combining was finished in South Dakota. Progress in all
other States except Montana was generally on schedule. In Montana, only 50 percent of the
acreage had been harvested, 25 points behind average.

FOOD GRAINS DOWN 1 PERCENT
FROM LAST YEAR

Food grain production (wheat, rice and rye) is expected to total 84.3 million metric tons, 1
percent less than last year. Forecast production as of September 1 is up 2 percent from a month
earlier as the result of increased wheat and rice prospects.

FEED GRAIN PRODUCTION 1 PERCENT
VE LAST YEAR

Production of feed grains (corn, sorghum, oats and barley) is expected to total 252 million
metric tons, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Compared. with last month, corn production is
virtually unchanged, sorghum is down } percent and barley and oats are each up 1 percent.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at a record high 8.32 billion bushels
(211 million metric tons), virtually the same as the August 1 forecast and 1

percent above the previous record high set last year. September 1 prospects indicate a record

nigh U.S. yield of 113.9 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels more than the previous record high set in

Weather during August was conducive to growth and development, and as of September 1, the
crop was mostly in good to excellent conditon. Crop development continued ahead of normal in
the eastern Corn Belt but was still lagging in the Western Corn Belt. In Ohio, the crop was 2
to 3 weeks ahead of normal but many areas of the State have received little or no rain since
early July. Consequently, Ohio yield prospects declined during the month. Oamage from the
August 27 frost became more apparent in northern areas of North Dakota and: Minnesota. Although
locally severe, only a smal} percent of the State acreage was affected. Most of the corn in
these areas normally goes for silage.

Conditions improved in Iowa, with yield now forecast at 124 bushels per acre, up 2 bushels
from last month. Yield in I1lnois at 136 bushels, is unchanged from last month. The yield per
acre and bushel change from the previous month in the other major producing States follows:
Indiana, 125--unchanged; Nebraska, 114--up 3; Minnesota, 110--down 2; Ohio, 116--down 6; and
Wisconsin, 105--down 3. Warm, dry weather is needed to mature the crop, particularly in the
northern Corn Belt.

In the Southeast, harvest is underway with record high yields expected in al] State from
Alabama to Virginia.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


DURUM WHEAT

t AREA HARVESTED ' YIELO t PRODUCTION:

STATE Seenenwennnannennnenensesnnnsenwnsenannannenensannenenenncncratesnadanaceeanaseneneres:
: + : IND t t 3 IND 3 t , INO
: 1980 1981 3 1982 : 19690 1981 ¢ 1982 3 $900 ¢ | 1985 2 = 1982,

: 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ARTZ 1/3 155 215 19 80.0 8540 90.0 12,400 48,275° 7,110
“CALIF 173 100 165 125 78.0 89.0 93.0 77800 14,685' 11,625
MINN : 120 135 78 28.0 40,0 40,0 3,360 5,400
MONT + 400 480 340 19.0 23.0 7,600 11,040
N DAK : 3,850 4,510 3,500 2 73,150 130,790
$ DAK 3 215 250 145 2. 4,085 5,750
us 4,840 5.755 4,267 18 395; 185,940

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

OTHER SPRING WHEAT

: AREA HARVESTED : YIELD PRODUCTION.
STATE 3 Je ewe enon nw rene nenneeeenareee-

3 2 3 IND 2 3 £ IND ¢ 3 + IND

' 1989 3 1964 3 1982

: 1,000 BUSHELS.

3
cola 1/3 so S1 a7 62,0 75,0 3,100 3,519 3,525
IOAHO : 640 S50 580 69.0 69.0 44,160 34,100 40,020
MINN : 2,980 3,350 3,020 32.5 41.0 962850 434,000 123,620
MONT 3 2,550 2,790 2,880 22.5 34.0 57,375 72,540 97,920
NEV asi 7 16 14 60.0 60,0 800 840
N DAK ft 5,700 7,050 6,900 18,5 32.0 197,400 220,800
ORES 1/3 150 110 100 36.0 40,0 os 4,180 4,000
$ OAK 3 2,080 2,400 2,300 18.0 25.0 37,440 $2,800 57,500
UTAH 1/3 30 30 33 48.0 50.0 1,440 41,350 1,650
WASH 3 410 220 260 42.0 37.0 17,220 7,040 10,360
wis 1st 23 28 26 31.0 32.0 m3 868 896
Wyo wi 20 17 18.0 29.0 360 180 aga
us : 14,650 16,604 16,199 25.3 34,7 370,528 508,777 $61,824

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE fewee en ee nn nnn nnn eee nnn nee en nme een annem ane nc enna meen ecerenennannencnmnereesorcece
2 3 2 INO ¢ : 3 IND 3 ’ 3 IND
3 1980 3 1981 1982 1980 > 1981 $ 1982 % 1980 % 1981 % 1962
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 cH

1,280.0 1,540.0 1733060 4,110 4,540 4,450 $2,615 69,928 59,185
565.0 605.0 560.0 6,440 7,200 6,800 36,366 43,560 38,080
585.0 667.0 598.0 3,550 4,010 4,150 20,768 26,752 24,817
240.0 337.0 260.0 3,640 4,390 4,200 9226 14,792 10,920
56.0 76.0 80.0 4,180 4,080 4,200 2,341 3,099 3,360
586.0 579.0 458.0 4,230 4,700 4,700 24,814 27,239 . 21,526

3,34 3,266.0 4,413 4,873 4,805 146,150 165,370 157,688

3,80

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION =: (SEE

Statistical Reportin;
Released: aan porting

September 10, 1982

3: TMM,
OO P.M. ET US. Department

of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production is forecast at a record high 8.32 billion bushels
211 million metric tons), virtually unchanged from the August 1 forecast
and 1 percent above the previous record high set last year. The 90
percent confidence interval for this production is 7.59 to 9.05 billion
bushels.

SORGHUM GRAIN production is forecast at 819 million bushels (20.8 million
metric tons), down 7 percent from 1981, but 41 percent more than the 1980
drought-stricken crop.

FEED GRAIN production (corn, sorghum, oats and barley combined) is expected to
total 252 million metric tons, up | percent from 1981.

SOYBEAN production is estimated at a record high 2.31 billion bushels (63.0
million metric tons), up 1 percent from August 1 and 14 percent above
last year's crop. The 90 percent confidence interval for the 1982
production forecast is 2.15 to 2.47 billion bushels.

ALL_WHEAT production is forecast at a record high 2.82 billion bushels (76.6
million metric tons), 1 percent above the previous record high set in
1981. Compared with a year earlier, durum wheat production is down 21
percent, other spring wheat is up 10 percent and winter wheat production
is up fractionally from last year. The 90 percent confidence interval
for the all wheat production forecast is 2.75 to 2.88 billion bushels.

FOOD GRAIN production (wheat, rye and rice combined) is expected to total 84.3
million metric tons, | percent below 1981.

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 11.0 million bales, 1 percent below the
ugust 1 forecast, 30 percent less than production in 198] and 1 percent
below the 1980 production level. The 90 percent confidence interval for
this 1982 production forecast is 9.66 to 12.4 million bales.

ALL TOBACCO production is forecast at 1.92 billion pounds (873 thousand metric
tons), 7 percent below the 2.06 billion pounds (935 thousand metric tons)
produced in 1981, but 8 percent above 1980's crop.

RHR RRR ARI IIIS ISAAK IK ISA A ASIII III III III AISI IIIS ISIS ISA ISA I IR,
* Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports *

* should be directed to Crop Reporting Board Publications, Room 5829 - *
* South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-4021). *

FEI OI IIIT II TI IIIT IIIT IIIB IOI IR IIT II RTI OK IIIT TRI IIIS II IOAN SSI IA.

CrPr 2-2 (9-82) For Information Call: (202)447-2127


Growing conditions were good during August in Arkansas, Louisiana and California. Frequent
showers caused some difficulty with harvesting operations in southern Louisiana, but no
significant amounts of grain were lost.

Rice heading in the 5 major States reached 92 percent by September 5, about normal for this
date. Harvest was running stightly behind average in Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, while
Arkansas is ahead of average for this date. Development of the California crop is slightly
behind average.

SOYBEANS: September 1 soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.31 billion bushels (63.0

million metric tons), 2 percent above the previous record set in 1979. The current
forecast is up 1 percent from August 1, and is 14 percent above last year's crop. Yield
prospects, are a record high 32.6 bushels per acre this year, up 0.5 bushel from the previous
record set in 1979. Yield is also up 0.3 bushel from last month and 2.2 bushels above last year.

On September 5, soybeans were in mostly good condition. Some excellent conditions were
reported in Illinois, but, in a few areas of Minnesota frost damage occurred to late planted
beans and, in a few areas of Ohio, the crop suffered stress from dry weather. Nearly all the
crop had bloomed and in the 18 major producing States 93 percent had set pods. Leaves were
turning color and were shedding in some fields. Harvest is expected to start in early planted
fields within the next two weeks.

September 1 yield prospects improved 1.0 bushe] from a month ago in both Iowa and Kansas and
2.0 bushels in Missouri. Yields in Indiana, Minnesota, South Dakota and Ohio decreased by 1.0
bushel. Nebraska showed a 3.0 bushel increase, while all other States of the North Central
Region were unchanged.

Favorable conditions during the month increased yields 1 bushel in Arkansas, Mississippi and
Texas while Kentucky and Tennessee showed 1.0 bushel decreases.

Yields in the Atlantic States were unchanged except for North Carolina, up 1.0 bushel, and
South Carolina, down 1.0 bushel from a month earlier.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

ome we
mua apes
ue -~

as be

ab

uf

FLAXSEED: Flaxseed production is forecast at 11.5 million bushels (292 thousand metric tons),

up 5 percent from last month's forecast and up 47 percent from last year. Yield per
acre, at a record high 13.8 bushels, is up 1.2 bushels from last year and up 0.6 of a bushel
from August 1. Ouring August, individual State yields for the three States in the estimating
program increased 0.5 of a bushel in Minnesota and 1.0 bushel in North Dakota, while South
Dakota remained unchanged.

Combining of flax in North Dakota began around mid-August and was 16 percent complete by the
end of the month. Last year, 10 percent had been combined by that date. The average is 14
percent. South Dakota's crop is generally in good condition. About 60 percent of the acreage
was harvested by the end of August.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT: Production of winter wheat is forecast at a record high 2.11 billion bushels

(57.3 million metric tons), up fractionally from the previous record high set in
1981 and 1 percent above the August 1 forecast. The increase from the August 1 forecast results
from improved yfelds in Idaho, Montana and Oregon. Washington yield remained unchanged from
August 3. Forecasts for at] other States were carried forward from previous month's forecasts.

Nationally, average yield is 36.0 bushels per acre, 0.2 bushe? above both last month and
1981. Area harvested at 58.5 million acres (23.7 million hectares), is virtually unchanged from
Tast year, but 14 percent above 1980.

Harvest was 75 percent complete in Idaho by August 29 compared with 82 percent last year and
the average of 76 percent. In Montana, excellent growing conditions have produced a record
yield of 40.0 bushels per acre, 5 bushels above the previous record of 35.0 bushels‘per acre set
in 1981. However, a reduced number of acres for harvest compared with 1981, has placed
production in Montana slightly below last year's record level. Harvest in Oregon was 96 percent
complete by August 29 compared with 94 percent for both 1981 and the average. In Washington,
harvest has progressed rapidly to 93 percent complete by August 29. This is 1 point above 1981
and 6 points above average.

DURUM WHEAT: Durum wheat production is forecast at 148 million bushels (4.02 million metric

tons), 2] percent less than last year's record high, but 36 percent above
Production in 1980. The decline in 1982 results from a substantial reduction in acres for
harvest this year in all durum producing States. Producers expect to harvest 4.27 million acres
(1.73 million hectares), down 26 percent from 1981, 12 percent less than in 1980, and the
smallest area harvested since 1979 when 3.93 million acres (1.59 million hectares) were
harvested.

The average yield of 34.6 bushels per acre is a record high and compares with the previous
record of 33.1 bushels in 1978, 32.3 bushels last year and 22.4 bushels in 1980. Average yields
were up 1 bushel per acre from last month in North Dakota, but down 1 bushel in South Dakota.
Yield was unchanged in Minnesota and Montana. Harvest was in full swing in North Dakota with 45
percent of the acreage combined by August 29 compared with 72 percent last year and the average
of 44 percent. Quality has been mostly good, but an extended period of dry weather is needed to
complete harvest. Frost damaged some late maturing fields on August 27th.

QTHER SPRING WHEAT: Growers expect to harvest a record high 562 million bushels (15.3 million

metric tons) of spring wheat other than durum this year, up 10 percent from
the previous record high set last year and 52 percent above production for 1980. The expected
increase in production over 1981 results from higher yields which were only partially offset by
a decline in acres for harvest. Yield per harvested acre is expected to average a record high
34.7 bushels per acre compared with the previous record of 30.7 bushels set in 1971, and 30.6
bushels last year. The forecast for last month was 32.7 bushels. Montana and North Dakota
registered yield increases of 4 bushels and 3 bushels, respectively, from last month. Other
States continued unchanged from last month.

Harvest of spring wheat other than durum was 59 percent complete as of August 29 in North
Dakota, well behind last year's 82 percent, but only slightly later than the average of 60
percent. Wet weather during the month caused some harvest delays. Limited frost damage to late
planted wheat was reported August 27th in northern areas of the State. Harvest was 64 percent
complete in Minnesota compared with 92 percent last year and the average of 71 percent. Some
frost damage ta late planted wheat was reported in the Northwest District. The Montana harvest
was 30 percent complete compared with 60 percent last year and the average of 50 percent. Cool,
wet weather during June and July slowed plant development causing the harvest to begin later
than normal. Further delays were caused by scattered showers during the latter part of August.
Harvest was completed in South Dakota as of August 29, the same as last year and average.

RICE: Production of the 1982 crop is forecast at 158 million hundredweight (7.16 million metric
tons), 1 percent more than the August 1 forecast, but 15 percent below last year's
Production. Production for 1982 is the second highest of record.

Nationally, yields are expected to average 4805 pounds per acre, second only to the 4873
pounds harvested last year. Yield prospects are above 1398) in Louisiana and Missouri, while
Arkansas, California and Mississippi expect lower yields. The Texas forecast yield is unchanged
from last year. Louisiana is expected to achieve a record high yield of 4150 pounds per acre.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP AND STATE

PEARS

PRODUCTION

TOTAL t/

ny pee

: 1981

PEARS BARTLETT
CALIF
OREG
Wash
TOTAL

PEARS EXCLUDING BARTLETT
CALIF
OREG
WASH
TOTAL

ALL PEARS
CALIF
cove
Conn
MICH
NY
OREG
PA
UTAH
WASH
us

wn
sy

wy
NN

1980

387,000

80,000
143,000
610,000

10,700
120,000
113,000
243,700

397,700
4,600
1,500

10,000
21,000

200,000
3,500
3,000

256,000

497,300

366,000
8 00

'
144,500
595,500

10,000
120,000
125,700
255,700

376,000
7,000
17600
9,000

17,000

295,000
$2000
3,100

270,200

891-900

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PROUUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLO
(TONS) U S 1980-1,000, 1961-3,050,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION

ALA 2 78 16
ARIZ = 70 76
ARK > 68 90.
CALIF 3 73 83
coLo 2 11 83
conn 3 80 68
DEL 3 7S 6s
FLA 2 6a 81
GA : 1S 73
IDAHO ¢ 81 81
TLL 20077 92
INO 3 65 a7
IOWA (77 a
KANS & 71 89
KY : 88 89
LA : 76 Te
MAINE ¢ 80 96
MD 277 77
MASS 3 80 7
MICH = 76 75
MINN 2 ve 86
MISS 3 78 Te
“0 3 63 95
MONT 3 77 61
NEBR 88

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 60 ANU OVER

DROUGHT, 35-49% EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982

B-14

us

4

POOR TO FAIR 65<793 VERY POOR, 50"643 SEVERE

295,000

76,000
145,000
516,000

8,500
105,000
110,000
223,500

303,500

2,700
255,000
783,350

vs

AVERAGE
1971-80

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SUGARBEETS wv

PRODUCTION

1982 3 1980

1941 % 1982

TONS Tl
ARIZ 91 12.6 13.6 22.9 23.8 23.0 208 300
CALIF 229.0 200.0 170.0 25.7 27.5 25.0 5,885 7,150
coLo 91. 77,0 19,0 22.5 19,0 1,729 1,733
IDAHO 137.9 144g 23.9 26.0 24,5 31296 3,754
KANS, 14,5 14,6 13.8 20,3 17,5 200 284
MICH 97.0 99,0 19.5 20,5 20,0 1,892 2,030
MINN 293.0 257.0 14,9 17,2 18.0 3,621 4,920
MONT 43,4 44,5 20.3 20,8 20.5 879 926
NEBR 85.0 75.8 20.9 2461 20.0 1,777 1,889
N MEX 2/ 1.6 2.4 23.1 20,3 20.0 37 43
N DAK 142,7 144,9 14,1 18,3 18,5 2,017 2,652
OHIO 17.8 14,4 19,1 19,0 0.0 339 274
ORES T.2 10,7 27.4 28,0 27.0 197 300
TEX e244 2562 15,8 22.8 21.0 386 s75
UTAH 27 a7 6 21.4 0,0 0.0 15 °
WYO 22.6 24,0 21.0 1,024 1,078 830
us 27,408

1/ RELATES TO YEAR UF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR
OVERSINTERED SPRING PLAMTEU BEETS I CALIF.
@/ ESTIMATES FUR CURRENT YEa® CARRLEC FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

SUGASCAWE FUR SUGAR ANO SEED

AREA HARVESTED

PRODUCTION
STATE
IND

1982 ¢

TUNS

1980

305.0 31.2 28.8 34,0 10,592 12,410
96.7 90,4 86,7 91, 9,446 8,800
250.0 23.3 26.9 27.0 5,927 64750
36.9 28,5 $1.4 32.5 998 1,199

745.6 36,3 39,0

26,963

1981 3 1982

1,000 POUNDS

CALIF «5 1,640 1,400 1,800 1,680 900
ToAKO 3.6 1,960 1,650 1,746 5,610 6,612
OREG 7.4 1,960 1,720 1,750 12,384 12,950
WASH 29.2 2,080 1,900 2,000 59,470 58,400

40.9 2,037 1,836 1,928 75,560 79,144 78,862

1/ 1982 QUANTITIES AVAILABLE FOR MARKET WILL 8E GOVERNED
BY REGULATIONS ISSUED UNDER FEDERAL MARKET ORDER 991,

2/ INCLUDES HOPS LOST BY FIRE(PUUNDS)? OREG@89, 000,
WASH=799,000,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


AUGUST WEATHER SUMMARY

Widespread rain fell over the United States, but many areas had less than the normal
amount. The area from north-central Texas to western Kansas had less than half the normal
amount of rain. Rain was spotty in the East Coast States. Many parts had near-normal rain, but
some areas became too dry. Spotty showers in the eastern Corn Belt provided ample moisture in
some areas, but dry weather in other areas stressed crops. Freezing temperatures were recorded
in northern North Dakota and Minnesota late in the month. August weather was unusally hot early
in the month.

FIRST WEEK...A ridge of high pressure through central United States spread warm air
northward through the Plains al} the way into Canada. The warm air spread eastward to cover the
entire Corn Belt. Afternoon high temperatures, near 100° for several days, in the western
Corn Belt may have hurt some crops. Showers and thunderstorms in Iowa and Nebraska caused some
Jocal flooding, but showers in other parts of the Plains, the Ohio Valley, and the East Coast
States generally benefited crops.

SECOND WEEK...An outbreak of cold air moved into the northern Plains early in the week and
spread southward to the central Plains and eastward to the Atlantic Ocean. Average temperatures
for the week were 6 to 9° colder than normal through the midwest and parts of the central and
northern Plains. Low-temperature records were set in many areas from Iowa to New York. Frost
was reported in some low places of northern Minnesota. Oownpours of rain accompanied heavy
thunderstorms from southeastern Nebraska to central Arkansas and into northern Mississippi,
causing local flooding. Some portions of the central and southern Plains remained unsually dry.

THIRD WEEK...Temperatures warmed during the week. Above-normal temperatures in the northern
Plains hastened crop development. Showers and thunderstorms were relatively light over much of
the Nation, but some heavy rain fell in southern Missouri and from south-central Kentucky to
northwestern Georgia. A few showers fell over the southern tip of Texas, but a large portion of
southern Texas and New Mexico, Ok?ahoma, and southwestern Kansas remained excessively dry.

FOURTH WEEK...A ridge of high pressure developed along the west coast and, late in the week,
caused another outbreak of very cold weather, carrying freezing temperatures through the Prarie
Provinces of Canada into the northern Plains. Freezing temperatures were reported in North
Dakota and Minnesota. The cold weather moved southward and eastward, but the coldest weather
remained in the northern part of the border States. One to two inches of rain fell in parts of
the dry areas of Minnesota and Wisconsin and heavy thunderstorms reached from central Missouri
through the Kentucky-Tennessee border area. Showers in southern and eastern Oklahoma were
welcome.

Temperatures warmed through the Plains and Midwest during the last 3 days of the month.
Showers and thunderstorms covered the area from south-central Nebraska to southern Illinois and
through the Great Lakes region. Excessive rain fell from northern Missouri to western
Wisconsin. (Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility).

AUGUST CROP DEVELOPMENT

August precipitation provided adequate moisture supplies in most major row crop production
regions. However, rainfall was spotty in the eastern Corn Belt. Some areas became dry and
crops were stressed. Subnormal temperatures slowed plant growth in many areas of the Corn
Belt. Development in the western region was already late because of the delayed planting
season. Late in the month, freezing temperatures damaged some immature crops in northern North
Dakota and Minnesota.

At the beginning of September, corn was in mostly good to excellent condition in the Corn
Belt and Southeast and fair to mostly good condition in other regions. In the 17 major
producing States, 87 percent of the corn was jin or past the dough stage, 59 percent was in or
past the dent stage and nearly 15 percent was mature by September 5. Normally, about 93 percent
jis in or past the dough stage, 68 percent is in or past the dent stage, and 24 percent is
mature. Progress was generally ahead of average in the eastern Corn Belt and lagging in the
western. Harvesting was underway as for north as Missouri and Virginia.

Soybeans were in good to excellent condition in some southern areas and in parts of the Corn
Belt. In other regions, mostly good conditions prevailed. In the 18 major producing States,
nearly al) of the crop had bloomed by September 5 and 93 percent had set pods. Leaves were
turning color in early-planted fields and, in a few areas, leaves had started shedding. Like
corn, soybean development was behind average in the western Corn Belt and ahead of average in
the eastern area. Some dry areas developed in the eastern Corn Belt and stressed the crop.
Rain is needed to prevent further stress and for good development.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


BARLEY

: AREA HARVESTED : YIELD 1 PRODUCTION
STATE = tee come wane.
4 ' : INO ¢ ’ ’ IND t ’
' 1960 3 1981 ¢ 1962 1 1980 t 1981 1 1982 8 1980 1981 3

. 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
!

ARIZ 4/8 50 43 46 90,0 95-0 = 102.0 4,500 4,085 4,896
CALIF 173 T12 64ac 620 62.0 63,0 62.0 40,320 36,440
coLo ’ 24s 300 290 65,0 63,0 70,40 18,900 20,300
DEL 1/8 25 2s 38 49,0 52,0 59.0 1,300 2,242
IDAHO 8 680 1,070 1,110 67,0 S940 67,0 63,130 74,370
IkL 2/2 6 43,0

KANS 4/8 51 $2 62 41,0 32.0 44,0 1,664 2,542
ky 178 29 32 32. 55,0 = 63,0 48,0 2,016 1,536
MD 4A/t 70 84 102 52,0 = 60,0 64,0 5.040 6,528
MICH 4/3 21 2 29° «$3,052.00 53,0 19352 1,537
MINN t 615 1,030 880 «42,5 $6.0 58,0 57,680 51,040
MONT ’ 4,050 1,320 1,600 42,0 43,0 50,0 56,760 80,000
NEBR 1/8 25 . 23 25 38,0 39,0 44,0 897 1,100
NEV 4/8 28 30 32.0 70,0 55,0 60,0 1,650 1,920
NJ 1/3 15 17 20 53,0 61.9 58,0 1,037 1,160
N MEX 1/8 35 28 40 = 57,0 = 67,0 6540 1,876 2,600
NY ast uM 47,0

nC ss 60 62 65 50,0 55,0 49,0 3,000 3,410 3,165
NODAK 3 1,500 2,200 2,040 = 32,0 48.0 51,0 48,000 105,600 108,040
OHIO 2/8 8 52,0 416

OKLA 4/3 50 50 42 33.0 31.0 37,0 1,650 1,550 1,554
OREG t 155 195 205 65,0 = 6040 62,0 10,075 114700 12,710
PA Vay 75 16 72 50,0 = 54,0 50,0 34750 4104 3,600
sc iss 23 27 33 44,0 43,0 48,0 4,012 Lylot 1,584
$ DAK 4 460 590 530 33,0 34,0 43,0 15,180 20,060 22,790
TENN 2/5 4 42.0 168

TEX 1/3 36 50 35 30,0 42.0 46,0 14080 2,100 1,610
UTAH ’ 148 149 158 = 73,0 © 66,0 73,0 04 9,834 11,539
va vt 90 97 104 51,0 61,0 54,0 3590 5,917 5,616
WASH ‘ 430 760 810 «75,0 «= 58,0 = 58,0 = 324250 44,080 46,980
WVA fs 9 to 7 44,0 55,0 46,0 396 550 322
WIS ive 26 st 35 «$9,900 50,0 = S20 $5534 1,550 1,820
Wyo ' 133 134 127 65,0 67,0 68.0 8,645 8,978 8,636
us ’ 7,275 9154 9,198 49,6 = 52.3 $6.2 3604956 478,301 5165592

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WASHINGTON, 0.C. 20250

OFFICIAL BUZINESS
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300

To stop mating [J or to chenge your
eddress [) cng thie shoot with label
intect, showing new address, to Crop
Reporting Board Publications, SRS. U.8.
Dept. of Agricuture, Ra 5829 South
Bulding. 14th & Indepencence Ave. B.W.,
Wesh., D.C. 202860.

POSTAGE AND FEES AID.
US. DEPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE
AGR 102

FIRST CLASS


DRY EDIBLE BEANS wv

AREA HARVESTED

’ PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE

3
1980 t 1981

1980 8

1,000 ACRES PouNvs

LARGE LINA BEANS

CALIF 34,0 34,0 2,230 2,070 2,090 158 as mY
BABY LIMA SEANS

CALIF 19,0 28,5 2,350 2,330 2,200 aar 629 627
BEANS UTHER THAN LIMAS

CALIF 160.0 167.5 1,630 1,690 1,670 2,608 2,772 ByA3t
ALL DRY EOIBLE AEANS

CALIF 213.0 250,0 1,790 1,820 1,788 3,813 4,022 4,469
coLo 165.0 170,0 1,160 1,450 1,300 2,146 2,785 2,210
1OAHO 1790 141.0 1,860 1,760 1,660 3,329 4,277 2,623
KANS 2a,9 18.0 14400 2,000 1,600 336 680 208
MICH 570.0 $40.0 14360 1,300 1,752 74198 7,020
MION 64,0 103, 69,0 1,150 1,260 966 1,339 1,t2t
MONT 11.8 13,0 9.0 1,600 1,650 176 2is 149
NEBR 150.0 220.0 205.0 1,820 1,650 2,730 3,850 3,363
NY 4569 47.0 43,0 260 1,250 ota 568 600
N UAK 255.0 415.0 305.0 1,050 950 2,678 4,565 2,898
UTAH 1i.o 14,0 10.0 380 360 42 60 36
wage ba. 0940 32.0 2,000 2,050 1,080 1,380 656
wy 3740 42,0 29,0 1,980 1,900 133 baz S31
us 1,621 2201.9 14846,0 1,489 19409 26,395 31,819 26,008

1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GRUKM Fuk GARDEN SEEL,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CaeHIED FORWARD FKOM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

1,000 TONS
6,397 4,390

+ 1 ' IND 1 2 IND 3 ’ ’ IND
1 1980 4 1981 t i9e2 t 1980 1 3981 1 1982 1 1960 5 1961 3 1982

1,090 ACRES cats 1,000 CMT
5e4 5.5 100 115, 110 530 oat 605
60 ° 36
89 902 180 185 185 45512 19687 1,702
5.6 4.0 100 115 120 450 64a 720
26,9 27.0 as 100 105 2,125 2,600 2,835
163 ie 150 175 200 195, 228 260
5.2 5.0 90 95 105 aa aga 525
2.5 29 AS 4110 110 276 27s 319
39,9 410 115 120 135 4,255 4,680 5,535
3.5 ass 95 95 100 236 333 aso
1.8 200 80 80 95 160 149 190
1.8 Ted 80 95 110 520 a4 792
2.3 2.4 aus 150 1580 242 345 360
109.3 144.0 107 ai7 125 10,953 124752 -14,293

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTAR{ PRODUCTION

INDICATED
1982

+ INDICATED :
1981 : = 1982 2

HECTARES METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN : 30.199 590 29 551 680 6.90 7.15 208 313 750 211 212 960 237 304 150
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN : 5 554 770 5 583 100 4.03 3.73 22 359 790 = 21 065 720 20 810 850
OATS. : 3 808 540 4 200 280 1,94 2.07 7 374 800 8 585 280 8 694 580
BARLEY + 3 703 320 3719 510 2.87 3.02 30 413 780 17 (076 810 J} 238 750
ALL WHEAT + 32 758 840 31 955 940 2,32 2.40 76 024 870 75 369 030 76 625 560
WINTER : 23.710 380 23 673 560 2.41 2.42 57 117 770 57 031 630 57 319 980
DURUM : 2 328 990 1726 810 2.17 2.33 5 060 460 3.923 940 4015 240
OTHER SPRING + 6 719 470 6 555 570 2.06 2.33 13 846 640 «14 413 460 15 290 340
RICE : 1 539 440 1329 810 5.46 5.39 8 408 240 7 058 120 7 161 680
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS : 26 987 970 28 720 850 2.05 2.19 55 259 850 62 416 660 62 973 490
FLAXSEED : 690 335 890 0.79 0.87 198 100 277 890 291 730
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 320 517 960 2.99 3.00 1 808 760 1 567 310 1 554 060
ALL COTTON 390 3 762 970 0.61 0.64 3 406 430 2 426 150 2 401 230
UPLAND 920 3 736 180 0.61 0.64 3 389 100 2 405 510 2 381 350
AMER-PIMA 470 26790 0.74 0.74 17 330 20 640 19 880
COTTONSEED 5 803 260 4 026 090 3 982 540
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 720 747 0601.62 1.58 1 443 050 1 198 380 1.179 520
POTATOES
‘SUMMER 450 38 650 23.64 24.16 908 770 923 010 933 810
TOTAL _1/ 640 519 820 30.68 15 358 150
SWEETPOTATOES 230 46 130 13.08 14.05 578 420 631 850 648 320
TOBACCO 860 365 480 2.37 2.39 935 470 862 680 872 920
SUGARBEETS 400 422 540 49.99 46.71 24 864 120 19 685 000 19 734 900

SUGARCANE FOR

SUGAR AND SEED 700 302 950 81.34 87.32 24 864 120 = 25 957 280 26 452 600

HOPS : 440 16 550 2.06 2.16 35 900 35 950 35 770
PEARS : 809 120 674 400 710 690
GRAPES 4 043 870 4 876 660 5 061 730
ORIED PRUNES (CALIF) 144 240 2/122 470 117 930
PRUNES AND PLUMS

(EXCL CALIF) 61 780 55 160 51 530
PECANS 153 810 94 170
FILBERTS 13 340 15 420
WALNUTS ( CALIF 204 120 181 440 199 580

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

INDICATED
1982 1/

INDICATED
1982 1/

INDICATED
1981 2 1982 1/

HECTARES METRIC TONS

RYE 282 070 283 280 1.68 1.79 473 000 506 090
ALL HAY 24 367 200 24 492 240 5.33 5.61 129 822 670 137 486 570

ALFALFA 10 681 390 10 739 260 7.11 7.65 75 927 730 82 136 510

ALL OTHER 13 685 810 13 752 980 3.94 4.02 53 894 940 55 350 060
POTATOES

WINTER 4 690 4 570 21.26 23.02 99 700 105 190

SPRING 31 570 31 570 29.83 29.08 941 880 918 200

FALL 2/ 425 940 445 040 31.48 13 407 800
APPLES, COM'L 3 893 480
PEACHES 1 006 470
SWEET CHERRIES 126 920
TART CHERRIES 152 630
APRICOTS 92 900
NECTARINES (CALIF) 136 080
PLUMS (CALIF) 113 400
OLIVES (CALIF) 97 070
ALMONDS (CALIF) 165 560

7 ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1981 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SWEETPOTATOES: Production of sweetpotatoes is forecast at 14.3 million cwt (648 thousand metric
tons), up 3 percent from the August 1 forecast and 12 percent from last year.
Area for harvest is 114 thousand acres (46.1 thousand hectares) a gain of 4 percent from last
year. The average yield is forecast at 125 cwt per acre, up 3 cwt from the August 1 forecast
and 8 cwt from last year.

Improved prospects in late planted fields in North Carolina have more than offset a jower
forecast for the Texas crop. Harvest is just getting underway in North Carolina, which accounts
for over one-third of the U.S. sweetpotato production. Harvest in Georgia was active during the
last halt of August, but damp, cool weather and low prices slowed digging during the last part
of the month,

In the Delta States, the crop is generally in good condition. Harvest is 25 percent
completed in Louisiana, but rain is needed for development in later fields. Harvest in
Mississippi is about 15 percent complete.

Ory, hot weather in Texas during August slowed sizing and reduced quality and yield
Prospects. Harvest is ahead of schedule. The California crop has good vine growth and a few

fields have been dug. The percentage of #1's may be lower than normal, but crop output should
be near the historic average.

ALL TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 1.92 billion pounds (873 thousand metric

~ tons}, 7 percent below tast year but 8 percent above 1980. The September 1
forecast is 1 percent above the August 1 estimate. Eleven of the sixteen States estimating
tobacco registered higher average yields than on August 1. Yield per acre, at 2131 pounds,
Points to a new record high. Last year's crop averaged 2114 pounds per acre while the 1980 crop
drought reduced yield averaged 1940 pounds per acre.

Kentucky's production of all tobacco is estimated to total 561 million pounds, 10 percent
above jast year and 1 percent above last’ month. Both the burley and dark crops look good in
Kentucky and yield prospects increased during August. Dry weather in early and mid-August
restricted growth in some areas but was helpful in limiting the spread of blue motd. Cutting
was advancing rapidly in the bluegrass region.

North Carolina's production is off last year's pace by 15 percent. The September 1 estimate
is 1 percent above August 1. Lower average yields and less acreage is the reason for the sharp
decline in production from a year ago. Harvest of flue-cured tobacco is nearing completion with
growers attention turning to marketing. Burley harvest is underway, but is slightly behind last
year's pace.

Tennessee growers expect to harvest 167 million pounds, 4 percent more than in 1987 but 7
percent less than August 1. Heavy rains in mid-August completely destroyed some burley fields
and caused varying degrees of damage to other fields in middle Tennessee. The excess moisture
is hindering harvest activities with some fields becoming over ripe and firing. The dark
tobacco crop looks good but growers are experiencing harvest delays from the heavy rain.

SUGARBEETS: Production of sugarbeets is forecast at 24.8 million tons (19.7 million metric

tons), up fractionally from the August 1 forecast but down 2) percent from a year
earlier. Average yield per acre is estimated at 20.8 tons compared with 22.3 tons in 1981.
Acreage for harvest, at 1.04 million acres (423 thousand hectares), is off 15 percent from that
harvested in 1981.

The southern Minnesota crop did exceptionally well in August, with disease problems well
under control. However, hot, dry weather reduced the yield potential in the south central area
of the State. The crop in the northwest area escaped frost damage. Harvest started in some
early fields about September 1.

California's south San Joaquin Valley harvest is underway. Harvest is expected to begin the
first week of October in northern California and the coastal areas. Fields in the Imperial
Valley are being prepared for next year's crop and planting started in late August.

Idaho's crop has recovered well from spring frosts and early season hail damage. Scattered
storms in August caused additional hail damage and could limit yield potential in this area.

In North Dakota, harvest began on a controlled basis on August 31. Dry weather in the
southern Red River Valley reduced yields but elsewhere yields are expected to be excellent.

The Michigan crop is making good progress. Moisture is adequate.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA



The Bartlett crop in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at 516 thousand tons
(468 thousand metric tons), up 8 percent from the August 1 forecast but 13 percent less than
last year. The crop in California was much larger than anticipated. Fruit were larger than
normal, partially offsetting a poor set. Harvest should be complete by September 5. Harvest
began about August 20 in Oregon where fruit size is also large. Picking in Washington was in
full swing by mid-August. Quality was reportedly very good and the crop sized well.

Production of Pacific Coast pears other than Bartlett is forecast at 224 thousand tons (203
thousand metric tons), unchanged from a month earlier but 13 percent less than last year's
crop. Growing conditions during August were favorable in California and Washington.

Harvest is in full swing in Michigan where size and quality are generally good. Picking has
begun in New York where quality is good, but the fruit are small.

GRAPES: The U.S. grape crop is forecast at 5.58 million tons (5.06 million metric tons), 4 per-
cent more than last month's estimate, 25 percent greater than last year's crop but
fractionally less than the record high production set in 1980.

Prospects in California, at 5.10 million tons, are up 4 percent from August 1 and are 28
Percent above last year. The California raisin variety grape forecast is 2.50 million tons, up 9
percent from last month and 41 percent above 198]. Maturity continues to lag behind normal
because of cool temperatures this summer. Crushing of Thompson Seedless for wine and laying of
grapes for raisins got underway in late August. Harvest of grapes for fresh table use peaked
during the week of August 23rd, with heavy volumes being marketed. Growers laying grapes for
raisins are reporting heavy tray weights. Sugar levels are below normal which will result in a
high dry-away ratio for raisins. Vineyards in the Fresno area that experienced hail and frost
damage early this spring have made a dramatic recovery and are now producing berries with the
highest quality. The California wine variety grape forecast remains at a record high 2.10
million tons, 17 percent above last year and 5 percent above the previous record high crop
produced in 1980. The crop made good progress in August but overall development is
approximately two weeks behind normal. Vines are carrying large numbers of clusters that are
expected to produce a record yield. Harvest is just underway. The California table variet;
grape forecast remains at 500 thousand tons, 19 percent above last year. A Strong rket
continues for fresh shipments and the volume has been larger than expected. Quality is
generally good but some occurrence of low sugar levels has been reported. Crushing of table
varieties for wine began in late August.

The Michigan grape forecast, at 55.0 thousand tons, is down 5 percent from August 1 but 4
Percent above 1981. The quality of the crop is excellent, with Niagara and Concord harvest
expected to begin about September 10th and 20th, respectively.

The New York grape forecast continues at 166 thousand tons, 11 percent above last year but 5
Percent less than 1980. Condition is rated as good to excellent. Early varieties are sizing
well and showing good color.

The forecast in Pennsylvania remains at 55.0 thousand tons, 10 percent below last year and 2
Percent less than 1980. Some early grapes are turning color but cool weather has slowed
deve lopment.

The Washington grape crop is forecast at 157 thousand tons, up 5 percent from August 1 but 1
percent below last year. Temperatures have been favorable for development and ripening appears
to be on schedule. Picking should begin about mid-month.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: California prune production (dried basis) is forecast at 130 thousand tons
(118 thousand metric tons), down 4 percent from the July 1 forecast and 18
percent Jess than last year's crop. The decrease results from a larger fruit drop than
anticipated. Harvest is expected to be complete by mid-September. Sizes are very large with
fine quality and good sugar content. Reports from Yuba County indicate that splits are higher
than normal. With the large size and good sugar content, the dry-away ratio should be favorable.

Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon and Washington is forecast at 56.8
thousand tons (51.5 thousand metric tons), down 7 percent from August 1 and 17 percent less than
last year. The decrease from August 1 is due to a far shorter pick-out than anticipated in
Washington. Harvest was virtually complete by the first of September. Harvest is underway in
Michigan and Oregon.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SI Y
toonestic UNITS,

YIELD PER ACRE

: INDICATED:

1981 =: 1982
1,000 ACRES 1,000

CORN FOR GRAIN BU 74,624 73,023 109.9 8,315,088 8,318,678
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN " 13,726 13,796 64.1 829,321 819,287
OATS " 9,411 10,379 54.0 591,478 599,008
BARLEY . 9,151 9,197 52.3 508,754 516,192
ALL WHEAT ” 80,948 78,964 34.5 2,769,338 2,815,508

WINTER 58,589 $8,498 35.8 2,095,554 2,106,149

DURUM 5,755 4,267 32.3 144,180 147,535

OTHER SPRING 16,604 16,199 30.6 529,604 561,824
RICE 3,804.0 3,286.0 4,873 155,605 157,888
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 66,688 70,970 30.4 2,293,420 2,313,880
FLAXSEED 617 830 12.6 10,940 11,485
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 1,493.3 1,279.9 2,670 3,455,340 3,426,140
ALL COTTON 13,841.2 9,298.4 543 11, 143.3 11,028.8

UPLAND 13, 783.2 9,232.2 542 11,048.5 10,9375

AMER-PINA x - 689 - .
COTTONSEED 6,397 4,438 4,390
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 2,201.0 1,846.0 1,445 1,409 31,814 26,420 26,004
POTATOES

SUMMER 95.0 95.5 an 216 20,035 20,349 20,587

TOTAL 2/ 1,237.1 1,284.5 274 338,591
‘SWEETPOTATOES 109.3 114.0 7 125 12,752 13,930 14,293
TOBACCO 975.7 903.1 2,114 2,131 2,062,375 1,901,884 1,924,473
SUGARBEETS 1,229.1 1,044.1 22.3 20.8 27,408 21,699 21,754
SUGARCANE FOR

SUGAR AND SEED 755.4 748.6 36.3 39.0 27,408 28,613 29,159
HOPS 43.1 40.9 1,836 1,928 79,144 79,262 78,862
PASTURE AND RANGE 3/ 82 82
PEARS 891.9 743.4 783.4
GRAPES 4,457.6 $375.6 5,579.6
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) 159.0 4/135.0 130.0
PRUNES AND PLUMS

(EXCL CALIF) 68.1 60.8 56.8
PECANS 339, 100 207,600
FILBERTS 4. .
WALNUTS (CALIF) 225.0 200.0 220.0

1/_ YIELD IN POUNDS. 2/ 1981 REVISED. 3/ PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1971-80
AVERAGE IS 74 PERCENT. 4/ JUL 1, 1982.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED

INDICATED
1982 1/

1,000 ACRES

INDICATED
1982 1/

INDICATED
1982 1/

RYE 700 26.7 28.5 18,621 19,924
ALL HAY 60,521 2.38 2.50 143,105 151,553
ALFALFA 26,537 8.17 3.41 83,696 90,540
ALL OTHER “ 33,984 1.76 1.80 59,409 61,013
POTATOES:
WINTER CWT 11.3 189 205 2,198 2,319
SPRING “ 78.0 266 260 20,765 20,243
FALL 2/ * 1,099.7 281 295,593
APPLES, COM'L LB 7,743,600 8,583,700
PEACHES " 2,788,600 2,218,900
SWEET CHERRIES TON 153.0 139.9
TART CHERRIES LB
APRICOTS TO!
NECTARINES (CALIF) "

PLUMS (CALIF)
OLIVES (CALIF) “
ALMONOS (CALIF) 18

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1981 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA





FLAXSEED

' AREA HARVESTED a YIELD '
STATE — Jewwnnewcmennnencnnnnccccercennsnencnnsnsnnscesenacssenaneces
’ ' ’ Ind t + 1 IND t ’ INO
’ 1980 1 1981 8 1962 1 1980 $ 1981 1 19828 1980 1984 2 1982

4 1,000 ACRES * BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

EWN 1 425 104 4100 12,5 15,0 1,563 1,650
NOAK 8 290 340 ago 13,5 2,900 6,615
30aK 8 265 173 230 14,0 3,405 3,220
TEX 1/3 3 20

617 830 7,928 14,488

U/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP,

SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

AREA HARVESTED YIELD 5 PRODUCTION

STATE Beerwmwnnennwcenne ce rewaanennnneeennnssseesee:

z 3 3 IND + 3 IND ¢ 3 3 IND

t 1980 1981 1982 ¢ 1980 = 1981 1982 $ 1980 1981 2 1982
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 2,000 BUSHELS

2,050 2,050 15,0 23.0 26,0 31,500 47,150 53,300

6,500 4,600 15.0 22.0 25,0 65,250 99,000 115,000

260 270 20.0 27,0 28,0 5,200 7,020 7/560

460 595 22.0 24.0 25,0 10,120 11,040 14,875

2,180 2,600 11,0. 19,0 25.0 23,540 41,420 65,000

9,330 9,420 33,5 36.0 44,0 309,875 354,540 386,220

4,600 4,550 36.0 33.0 40.0 157,680 151,800 182,000

8,150 6,550 38.9 40,5 318,395 330,075 333,450

1,510 1,800 16.5 30,0
1,660 22,5 29,5
2,950 “20,0 21,0

40s 24,0 30.0
1,040 32.0 30,0
4,850 31.5 33.0
3,600 16.0 21.0
$,850 24,5 31.5
2,300 30.0 39.0

23,925 45,300 46, 800
36,000 50,150 $1,960
67,000 65,730 79,650
9,360 11,100 12,150
30,400 29,100 34,320
149,940 145,200 164,900
61,600 75,600 93,600
135,485 159,075 181,350
53,100 682,680 85,100

170 18.0 29.0 3,492 4,872 5,100
24,0 456

2,100 16,0 25,0 34,740 47, 54,600
345 17,5 26,0 3,500 7,935
3730 36.0 28.5 135,360 141,740
280 10.0 24.0 3,000 6,440
100 24,5 31.0 2,524 3,100
1,550 1,650 13,0 21,0 20,800 40,700
770 820 26,0 30.0 20,020 25,420
2,350 2,350 18,0 26.0 45,900 61,100
480 1,020 22,0 22,0 13,860 27,540
635 665 15.0 27,0 16,620

375 450 33.0 33.0

66,686 70,970 26,4

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1972-82 (1977=100)

PRODUCTION

YEAR

COTTON TOBACCO :OIL CROPS

1972 : 87 88 96 77 110 97 91 74
1973 : 92 91 101 86 95 91 91 87
1974 H 84 74 96 91 89 82 104 71
1975 : 93 n 100 108 4 58 114 86
1976 : 92 96 94 107 112 74 2 74
1977 : 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1978 : 102 108 106 93 101 76 106 105
1979 > 113 116 108 108 94 102 80 129
1980 > 101 97 98 121 m) 97 79 93 99
1981 2 17 121 106 144 m1 110 107 115
1982 > 17 123 m 140 97 77 101 127

\/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with related information
on selected agricultural commodities. These data were prepared and adopted by the Crop Re-
porting Board which consists of commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington
headquarters.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:
W. H. Walther, Chairperson,
G. L. Clampet, Secretary,

APPROVED: 0. W. Barrowman, R. L. Schulte,
R. L. Addison, M, A. Anderson,
W. R. Blackson, W. T. Brannen,
J. E. Brewster, J. S. Buche,
A. R. Budge, T. J. Byram,
+ e. W. L. Daugherty, C. E. Gore,
‘ T. L. Gregory, M, H. Hammer,
C. D. James, D. C. Johnson,
G. A. Netson, J. E. Oaks,
D. £. Ransom, V. L. Siegenthaler,
R. 0. Tortora, L. S, Williams,

ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PECANS.

: PROOUCTION

CROP AND STATE

1,000 POUNDS

PECANS IMPROVED 1
ALA 10,400 21,000 13,000
200 1,250 300
2,500 2,000 1,800
44,000 96,000 88,000
2,000 4,500 2,500
3,500 5,500 4,000
14,700 20,000 18,000
1,100 2,000 1,100
500 2,500 800
16600 4,800 2,500
8,000 15,000 15,000
128,500 174,550 197,000
9,600 13,000 7,000
700 4,250 41,000
3,500 3,000 2,700
21,000 24,000 22,000
12,000 19,500 1500
1,000 3,000 2,000

600 2,200 1,200

3,000 44,500 4,200

600 4,100 4,000

3,000 47,000 10,000

us 55/000 164,550 60,600

ALL PECANS

ALA 20,000 34,000 20,000
ARK 900 5,500 1,300
FLA 6,000 57000 4,500
GA 105,000 120,000 110,000
LA 14,000 24,000 12,000
Miss 4,500 8,500 64000
nN MEX 14,700 20,000 18,000
ac 1,700 4,200 2,300
OKLA 3,500 47,000 51000
gsc 2,200 8,900 3,500
TEX 11,000 62,000 25,000
us 183,500 339,100 207,600

1/ BUDDED, GRAFTED, OK TUPWORKED VARIETIES,

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

FRESH PRODUCTION

1,000 POUNDS

2,150 2,170 5,348 3,630

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES

YIELD

PRODUCTION

1,000 CaT

WINTER 1/
LiF

3.0 32 3.8 235 2802S 105 896 934
FLA o.5 ea 7.5 195 155 185 1,656 1,302 1, 388
TOTAL 15 1.6 41.3 205 189.208 2,363 2,198 2,319
SPRING 1/
ALA Sev ae 4.2 125 180-170 625 720 714
ARIZ aoa 5.2 4.7 290 260265 1,276 1,456 1,246
CALIF 22.5 26.4 25.5 390 390 370 8,775 10,296 9,435,
FLAHASTINGS 18.0 20.5 21.5 195 245 240 3,510 5,023 5, 160
OTHER 38 1.0 1-2 170 24010 136 240 ase
La 1.7 1.6 Iel 70 80 bu ag 128 a6
nc iS. 1363 13.8 140 155 160 1/820 24062 = 2,208
TEX ne 6.0 6.0 130 180190 806 B40 1,140
TOTAL Tee 78.0 Hod 238 zee abo 17,087 20,705 20,243
SUMMER
~- 9.5 Wd 8.6 $0 150 150 475 1,365 4,290
CALIF Tee 6.0 Be4 3653700365 2,774 = 2,960 34066
Couo Sab 6.6 6.4 275280285 1,595 1,824
et 5.1 S.2 5.3190 280-240 965 o2te
TL z 148 at 2.2, 230 250 250 aia 550
IND 2 1.5 1.6 109° 160 «17020 240 416
Towa 1.4 1S 165 23018030 322 345
Ho 1.8 1.8 1.6 1700 195195 306 312
WICH 863 863 7.8 195 175200 1,619 1,560
INN 5.4 6.1 6.3 290 270 = 280 17566 1,764
NEBR 1.3 tal 1st 2000 200,150 260 165
wd 6.2 81 718 240 255) 260 1,968 2,028
N MEX 3.0 4.5 3eS 180 210 230 540 805
ne 37 400 3.8 110 «120120 407 456
Ontu ro 102 1e2 2200190225 308 270
TENN 2.0 Bar $170 90 90 196 279
TEX 7.5 6.7 b.5 200 © 230 230 1,500 1,541 1,955
va 140 16.0 46.5) 110 4450335 17590 2320 2228
TOTAL 9a 95.0 95.5 189 211 216 = 16,999 20,035 20,587
FALL 1/2
CALIF 47.4 18,7 18,5 370-370 6,919
coLo 36.5 40.0 45,0 300 290 11,600
CONN 4.6 1.8 1,6 225 270 486
TUAHU-10 84 CO 23.0 24.0 25.0 340 © 335 8,040
“OTHER CO 277.u -B06,0 317.0 260250
Ind 3.3 3.0 4,2 220 © 205
MAINE z 104.0 © 104.0 05,0 240 255
MASS : 3.4 3.3 36 2200285
MICH 31S 30.0 34,0 235 235
MINN Od. 70.0 69,0 155 190
MONT : 6.9 Tea 7.4 250 235
NEoR : 6.7 7.9 6.1 2600285
NEW B td.0 12.0 13,9 3400-290,
N Y-LONG 18 F168 16.5 18,5 255 290
UPSTATE 2 25,0 25.0 27,0 250 275
Nv DaK : 112.0 11540 120,60 149178
OHIO 2 9.3 920 9,5 210 210
OREG-MALHEUR CO t = 10,0 19.0 9.7 365 345
“OTHER CO. ft © 37.0 44.0 41.0 435415
PA z  2e.0 21.0 25,0 190 250
RI : 3.2 3.2 3,0 230 © 260
8 _CAK 6.7 564 10,8 160 © 130
UTAH S.2 5.8 5.8 225 220
vr os 7 72 200-220
wash 87,0 © 108.0 11060 505490
wis 50.0 53.5 62,0 320 340
ayo 3.7 5.3 3.2 235 200
TOTAL 981.2 1,052.5 1,099,7 272 281 266,428 295,593
usa 1,154.4 1,237.1 1,284,5 262 274 302,857 336,591

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARO FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
a/ 1981 REVISED,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 B11 , CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PEANUTS: Peanut production is forecast at 3.43 billion pounds (1.55 million metric tons), 1 per-
“~~~ cent below the August 1 estimate and 14 percent less than last year's record high crop
but 49 percent above the drought reduced crop of 1980. Acreage reductions from last year in all
States except New Mexico are responsible for the decrease in production, The reduction in
acreage is attributed to changes in the peanut program. Harvested acreage is estimated at 1.28
million acres (518 thousand hectares), up fractionally from August 1 but down 14 and 9 percent,
respectively, from 1981 and 1980. The estimated U.S. harvested acreage is the smallest since
1933. Estimated yield, at 2677 pounds per acre, is a record high but 33 pounds below the August
1 estimate. The comparisons in this report include Mississippi for 1981 but that State was
eliminated from the estimating program in 1982.

In the Southeast (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina), production is estimated at
2.20 billion pounds, 12 percent below the 198] crop of 2.49 billion pounds. Harvested acreage
at 725 thousand acres is 17 percent below 1981. Yield per acre is estimated at 3032 pounds, 168
pounds above 1981. In Alabama, yield prospects are forecast at a record high 2850 pounds.
Yield prospects in Florida, at 3150 pounds per acre, are the best since 1979 and 180 pounds
above the 1981 crop. Unlike the other Southeastern States, yield prospects for Georgia, at 3100
pounds per acre are down from last month. However, yield per acre is still 170 pounds above
1981. Yield in South Carolina is projected at 2450 pounds per acre, 50 pounds better than on
August 1 but 150 pounds below 1981. Digging was very active around September 1 in Georgia and
getting under way in the other three States.

The peanut crop in Virginia - North Carolina is forecast at 687 million pounds, 23 percent
below the 1981 crop of 893 million pounds. Harvested acreage at 242 thousand acres is down 14
percent from 1981. In North Carolina, yield prospects at 2800 pounds per acre remain unchanged
from August 1. Virginia's yield is estimated at 2900 pounds per acre, 100 pounds less than on
August 1. Prospective yields are 375 pounds per acre less than last year in North Carolina and
250 pounds less than last year in Virginia. Weather conditions have been generally favorable
but more rain will be needed during early September.

In the Southwest (Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico), the peanut crop is estimated at 541 million
pounds, 17 percent below the 198] production of 607 million pounds. Acres for harvest, at 313
thousand acres, are down 9 percent from 1981. Yields in Texas are expected to be below both
last year and last month. Harvest is underway in South Texas while the. crop is under moisture
stress in North Texas. In Oklahoma, yield prospects remain unchanged from August 1 and 1
percent above 198]. During August, the Oklahoma peanut crop was under stress from hot and dry
weather but rains the last of August provided relief in some areas.

COTTON: AT? cotton production in the United State is expected to total 11.0 million bales, down
30 percent from 1981 and 1 percent less than forecast on August 1. Upland production
is forecast at 10.9 million bales, down 30 percent from Tast year and American-Pima, at 91.3
thousand bales, is 15 percent above 1981] production.

Acreage for harvest is estimated at 9.30 million acres (3.76 million hectares), down about
one-third from 1981. Average yield of lint per harvested acre is forecast at 569 pound, 26
pounds above the 1981 yield. Growers on the Texas Plains continued to plow-up acreage with low
yield potential and apply for disaster payments.

In the Southeastern States -- Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina --
production is forecast at 761 thousand bales, 9 percent below last year and down 1 percent from
the August 1 forecast. Frequent showers hampered insect contro] measures and caused heavy
foliage growth during the first half of August but drier weather later in the month hastened
maturity.

Production in the Delta States -- Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee
-- is forecast at 3.29 million bales, 3 percent below last year but up fractionally from last
month's forecast. A reduction in acres for harvest in Mississippi was offset by increased yield
prospects in that State. Maturity is about one week Jater than last year. The crop made good
Progress during August and yield prospects are faborable.

The Upland crop in Oklahoma and Texas is forecast at 2.65 million bales, less than half of
Yast year's production and down 5 percent from August 1. The reduction from Jast month was
mostly attributable to lower acres for harvest in Texas. Harvest is finished in the Lower Rio
Grande Valley and Coastal Bend. The High Plains crop, although about two weeks later than last
year, made good progress during August. Non-irrigated acreage would benefit from rain in some
areas and the lateness of the crop has increased the difficulty of controlling insects.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at a record high 29.2 million

tons (26.5 million metric tons), up 2 percent from the August 1 forecast and up 6
percent from 1981. Average yield per acre is estimated at 39.0 tons compared with 36.3 tons in
1981.

Florida sugarcane yield is expected to average 34.0 tons per acre, 5.2 tons more than a year
ago. The crop is making very rapid growth as growing conditions have been near ideal during the
summer, The January freeze did set back the crop but recovery has been excellent. Harvesting
cane for sugar is expected to get underway in late October.

In Hawaii, periodic delays and mill shutdowns have put harvesting operations behind schedule
for this time of year. Some plantations are expected to carryover acreage intended for harvest
in 1982 into 1983. Acreage for harvest in 1982 has, therefore, been revised downward. August
rainfall was generally sufficient to keep moisture adequate in non-irrigated fields, especially
along the east coast of the island of Hawaii. Yields are expected to average 91.0 tons per
acre, up 4.3 tons per acre from 1981.

The second crop in Louisiana, which was damaged by a severe freeze in January, has generally
recovered better than expected. Yields in 1982 are expected to be only marginally better than
jin 1981. Planting has been delayed by wet weather and weedy fallow land. By month's end,
Planting was 7 percent Complete compared with 22 percent last year and the average of 5 percent.

The Texas crop remains in fair condition despite hot, dry weather which has blanketed the
Rio Grande Valley during recent months. Irrigation continues at a heavy rate but may not be
sufficient to handle the rapid evaporation.

HOPS: Production of hops in the U.S. is forecast at 78.9 million pounds (35.8 thousand metric
“"*->.«tons), down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast and fractionally less than last year.

Acreage for harvest, estimated at 40.9 thousand acres (16.6 thousand hectares), is down 800

acres from last month. The expected average yield increased 27 pounds per acre from August 1.

Changes from fast manth’s forecast are whoily the result of an August 710 storm in Washington
which destroyed 800 acres of hops. Although there was some improvement in yield prospects
during August, it was not enough to offset the acreage loss. Production forecasts for
California, Oregon and Idaho were unchanged.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: The September 1 pasture and range feed condition averaged 82 percent of

normal for the 48 contiguous States. This is the same as a year ago,
but 8 points more than the 1971-80 average for this date. During August, conditions
deteriorated in 31 States, were unchanged in 1 and improved in 16 States. In Texas, range and
pastures continued to decline in August as hot, dry weather persisted. Only the High Plains
reported fair to good grazing. Grazing virtually ceased in Central and South Texas as
drought-like weather caused increased supplemental feeding. During August, conditions declined
5 points in Kansas and 10 points in Oklahoma. Soil moisture was depleted in Oklahoma by high
temperatures. Ory weather in parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin
caused conditions to decline up to 15 points from a month earlier. Pastures in the eastern
third of the Nation ranged from poor to excellent. Portions of New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania
showed the largest areas of poor to fair pastures. In the West, conditions improved in Arizona
and New Mexico, but were still mostly in the poor to fair range. Washington and Oregon reported
dry conditions in some areas which held ratings in these areas to the poor to fair range. The
Rocky Mountain area had mostly good to excellent conditions.

LEMONS: The first forecast for the Arizona 1982-83 lemon crop is 7.70 million boxes, 22 percent

above last season and 10 percent more than the utilized crop harvested in 1980-81.
Lemon harvest started on a ring pick basis, in early August, about two weeks ahead of normal.
Normal to above normal growth of the new crop fruit continued as citrus groves responded
favorably to August rains. The 1982-83 crop set appears to be exceptional. The California.
Desert Area lemon forecast is 3.80 million boxes, compared with 3.55 million boxes utilized last
season and 2,95 million boxes in 1980-81. An estimate for the 1982-83 total California lemon
crop will be issued on October 12. Picking of the new crop has started in the Yuma area. Fruit
quality is very good with very little oil spotting.

PEARS: The final forecast of the 1982 U.S. pear crop is 783 thousand tons (711 thousand metric

tons), a 5 percent increase from August 1 but 12 percent less than the 1981 crop. The
increase from last month is due to larger than normal fruit and an almost non-existent drop in
the California Bartlett pear crop.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1982 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA