Cr Pr 2-2 (2-08) 

Washington, D.C.

Crop 

Production

Released February 8, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For 

information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. 

All Orange Production Down 1 Percent From January 

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2007-08 season is 9.92 million tons, down 1 percent from the January 1 forecast 

but 31 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.59 million tons. Florida’s all orange forecast, at 

166 million boxes (7.47 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast but 29 percent higher than last 

season’s final utilization of 129 million boxes. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 

81.0 million boxes (3.65 million tons), unchanged from January 1 but 23 percent above last season. Harvest for the 

early and midseason varieties peaked in the third and fourth weeks of January. Florida’s Valencia forecast, at 

85.0 million boxes (3.83 million tons), is 2 percent lower than the last forecast but 34 percent higher than 2006-07. 

Average fruit sizes for Valencia oranges are very small and are expected to be smaller at harvest than the minimum of 

the last eight non-hurricane seasons. Florida citrus regions experienced relatively warm weather during January, with 

average rainfall in the north and less than average rainfall in the central and southern areas. 

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2007-08 season is 1.62 gallons per box at 

42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.60 last month, but 2 percent lower than last season’s final yield. The early-mid portion 

remains at 1.53 gallons per box, 2 percent below last season’s final of 1.56 gallons per box. The Valencia portion 

increased to 1.70 gallons per box, 4 percent lower than last season’s final of 1.77 gallons per box. All yield projections 

include the assumption that the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 2 NASS, USDA 

This report was approved on February 8, 2008. 

Acting Secretary of 

Agriculture 

Charles F. Conner 

Agricultural Statistics Board 

Chairperson 

Carol C. House 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 3 NASS, USDA 

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas.......................................................................................................................................................................... 4 

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit...................................................................................................................................................................... 5 

Lemons.......................................................................................................................................................................... 5 

Oranges ......................................................................................................................................................................... 5 

Tangelos........................................................................................................................................................................ 5 

Tangerines..................................................................................................................................................................... 5 

Temples......................................................................................................................................................................... 5 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

Sugarcane...................................................................................................................................................................... 4 

Crop Comments ........................................................................................................................................................ 13 

Crop Summary............................................................................................................................................................ 6 

Information Contacts................................................................................................................................................ 17 

Reliability of Production Data in this Report......................................................................................................... 16 

Weather Maps ........................................................................................................................................................... 12 

Weather Summary.................................................................................................................................................... 13 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 4 NASS, USDA 

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production 

by Use, State, and United States, 2006-2007 

Area Harvested Yield 1

 Production 1 Use 

and 

State 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 

For Sugar 

 FL 

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US 

For Seed 

 FL 

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US 

For Sugar 

 and Seed 

 FL 

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US 

382.0 

20.4 

405.0 

39.2 

846.6 

18.0 

1.6 

30.0 

1.5 

51.1 

400.0 

22.0 

435.0 

40.7 

897.7 

378.0 

20.2 

390.0 

43.5 

831.7 

18.0 

2.3 

30.0 

1.5 

51.8 

396.0 

22.5 

420.0 

45.0 

883.5 

35.8 

79.1 

27.3 

41.2 

33.0 

37.2 

32.0 

27.3 

41.0 

31.4 

35.9 

75.7 

27.3 

41.2 

32.9 

36.9 

84.5 

30.0 

41.0 

35.0 

39.4 

30.7 

30.0 

37.0 

33.5 

37.0 

79.0 

30.0 

40.9 

34.9 

13,676 

1,614 

11,057 

1,615 

27,962 

670 

51 

819 

62 

1,602 

14,346 

1,665 

11,876 

1,677 

29,564 

13,948 

1,707 

11,700 

1,784 

29,139 

709 

71 

900 

56 

1,736 

14,657 

1,778 

12,600 

1,840 

30,875 

1

 Net tons. 

2

 Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2007 Summary." 

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007 

Area Fresh Production 1

Month Total in Crop Harvested 

2006 2007 2006 2007 

2006 2007 

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 

Nov 

Dec 

2,140 

2,350 

2,100 

2,050 

1,315 

1,135 

1,365 

1,255 

2,605 

2,300 

3,075 

2,805 

1

 Utilized fresh production. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 5 NASS, USDA 

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 

2005-06, 2006-07 and Forecasted February 1, 2008 1

Utilized Production 

Boxes 

Utilized Production 

Crop and State Ton Equivalent 

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 

Oranges 

 Early, Mid & 

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 5

 TX 4

 US 

 Valencia 

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

 All 

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

Temples 5

 FL 

Grapefruit 

 White 

 FL 

 Colored 

 FL 

 All 

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 

 TX 4

 US 

Tangerines 

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL 

 US 

Lemons 4

 AZ 

 CA 

 US 

Tangelos 

 FL 

250 

47,000 

75,000 

1,400 

123,650 

200 

14,000 

72,700 

200 

87,100 

450 

61,000 

147,700 

1,600 

210,750 

700 

6,500 

12,800 

100 

6,000 

19,300 

5,200 

30,600 

550 

3,600 

5,500 

9,650 

3,800 

22,000 

25,800 

1,400 

200 

34,000 

65,600 

1,600 

101,400 

100 

11,000 

63,400 

380 

74,880 

300 

45,000 

129,000 

1,980 

176,280 

9,300 

17,900 

100 

4,000 

27,200 

7,100 

38,400 

300 

2,900 

4,600 

7,800 

2,500 

16,000 

18,500 

1,250 

250 

48,000 

81,000 

1,400 

130,650 

100 

15,000 

85,000 

385 

100,485 

350 

63,000 

166,000 

1,785 

231,135 

7,500 

17,000 

150 

5,000 

24,500 

6,600 

36,250 

400 

5,100 

4,800 

10,300 

1,500 

17,000 

18,500 

1,300 

9 

1,763 

3,375 

60 

5,207 

8 

525 

3,272 

9 

3,814 

17 

2,288 

6,647 

69 

9,021 

32 

276 

544 

3 

201 

820 

208 

1,232 

21 

135 

261 

417 

144 

836 

980 

63 

8 

1,275 

2,952 

68 

4,303 

4 

413 

2,853 

16 

3,286 

12 

1,688 

5,805 

84 

7,589 

395 

761 

3 

134 

1,156 

284 

1,577 

11 

109 

219 

339 

95 

608 

703 

56 

9 

1,800 

3,645 

60 

5,514 

4 

563 

3,825 

16 

4,408 

13 

2,363 

7,470 

76 

9,922 

319 

723 

5 

168 

1,042 

264 

1,479 

15 

191 

228 

434 

57 

646 

703 

59 

1

 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2

 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; 

tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3

 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines 

in TX. 4

 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 

5

 Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6

 Includes tangelos and tangors. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 6 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 

(Domestic Units) 1

Area Planted Area Harvested Crop 

2007 2008 2007 2008 

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 

 Upland 

 Amer-Pima 

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 

 Dry Edible Beans 

 Dry Edible Peas 

 Lentils 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 4

4,020.0 

93,600.0 

3,760.0 

570.0 

2,761.0 

1,376.0 

7,718.0 

60,433.0 

44,987.0 

2,149.0 

13,297.0 

1,183.0 

354.0 

56.0 

1,230.0 

1.5 

180.0 

63,631.0 

2,068.0 

10,830.3 

10,538.0 

292.3 

1,269.8 

29.0 

1,526.9 

847.5 

303.0 

1,148.8 

11.5 

73.0 

53.7 

1,010.6 

100.6 

46,610.0 

11.0 

3,508.0 

86,542.0 

6,071.0 

61,625.0 

21,670.0 

39,955.0 

1,505.0 

515.0 

2,748.0 

289.0 

6,805.0 

399.0 

51,011.0 

35,952.0 

2,112.0 

12,947.0 

1,163.0 

349.0 

52.8 

1,195.0 

1.0 

172.0 

62,820.0 

2,009.5 

10,492.2 

10,204.0 

288.2 

1,246.9 

883.5 

356.0 

11.0 

1,478.7 

811.3 

295.0 

6.4 

0.1 

30.9 

73.3 

1,129.0 

11.5 

70.4 

50.4 

996.7 

19.6 

97.5 

0.4 

11.0 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop 

year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 

3

 Acreage is not estimated. 

4

 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 7 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 

(Domestic Units) 1

Yield Production Crop Units 

2007 2008 2007 2008 

 1,000 1,000 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 2

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu 

" 

Tons 

" 

" 

" 

Bu 

" 

Cwt 

Bu 

" 

Tons 

Bu 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

Tons 

Bu 

Lbs 

" 

" 

" 

Bu 

Lbs 

Bales 

" 

" 

Tons 

" 

Lbs 

Cwt 

" 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

" 

" 

" 

Cwt 

" 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

Cwt 

Lbs 

60.4 

151.1 

17.5 

2.44 

3.35 

1.95 

60.9 

32.3 

7,185 

27.4 

74.2 

15.6 

40.5 

42.2 

33.9 

37.0 

1,250 

16.9 

603 

3,130 

1,300 

1,215 

41.2 

1,437 

871 

857 

1,374 

25.6 

34.9 

2,187 

1,155 

1,716 

1,960 

1,155 

1,170 

35,000 

1,949 

93 

398 

215 

294 

335 

410 

121 

189 

250 

211,825 

13,073,893 

106,328 

150,304 

72,575 

77,729 

91,599 

16,615 

197,456 

7,914 

504,993 

6,206 

2,066,722 

1,515,989 

71,686 

479,047 

1,453,830 

6,596.0 

5,904 

31,826 

3,740,650 

1,300 

208,995 

2,585,207 

2,888,555 

19,033.0 

18,208.0 

825.0 

31,912 

30,875 

778,624 

127 

25,371 

15,903 

3,408 

541 

7,500 

2,800 

60,253.1 

6,794 

449,156 

2,473 

20,694 

16,907 

409,082 

2,379 

18,452 

4,000 

2,750 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop 

year. 2

 Yield in pounds. 

3

 Yield is not estimated. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 8 NASS, USDA 

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 

(Domestic Units) 1

Production Crop Units 

2006 2007 2008 

 1,000 1,000 1,000 

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit 

 Lemons 

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL) 

 Tangerines 

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus 

 Apples 

 Apricots 

 Bananas (HI) 

 Grapes 

 Olives (CA) 

 Papayas (HI) 

 Peaches 

 Pears 

 Prunes, Dried (CA) 

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) 

Nuts & Misc. 

 Almonds (CA) (shelled) 

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) 

 Pecans (in-shell) 

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) 

 Maple Syrup 

Tons 

" 

" 

" 

" 

" 

1,000 Lbs 

Tons 

Lbs 

Tons 

" 

Lbs 

Tons 

" 

" 

" 

Lbs 

Tons 

Lbs 

Tons 

Gals 

1,232 

980 

9,021 

63 

417 

32 

9,851.7 

44.5 

20,000.0 

6,377.2 

23.5 

28,700.0 

1,010.1 

842.0 

198.0 

21.5 

1,120,000 

43.0 

206,300 

346.0 

1,449 

1,577 

703 

7,589 

56 

339 

9,342.6 

88.3 

21,000.0 

6,729.7 

132.5 

33,300.0 

1,112.7 

881.0 

81.0 

11.9 

1,360,000 

36.0 

349,155 

320.0 

1,258 

1,479 

703 

9,922 

59 

434 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop 

year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2

 Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 

3

 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 9 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 

(Metric Units) 1

Area Planted Area Harvested Crop 

2007 2008 2007 2008 

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland 

 Amer-Pima 

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 

 Dry Edible Beans 

 Dry Edible Peas 

 Lentils 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 5

1,626,850 

37,878,980 

1,521,630 

230,670 

1,117,350 

556,850 

3,123,400 

24,456,630 

18,205,790 

869,680 

5,381,160 

478,750 

143,260 

22,660 

497,770 

610 

72,840 

25,750,830 

836,900 

4,382,910 

4,264,620 

118,290 

513,880 

11,740 

617,920 

342,970 

122,620 

464,910 

4,650 

29,540 

21,730 

408,980 

40,710 

18,862,600 

4,450 

1,419,650 

35,022,680 

2,456,870 

24,939,020 

8,769,630 

16,169,390 

609,060 

208,420 

1,112,090 

116,960 

2,753,920 

161,470 

20,643,640 

14,549,410 

854,710 

5,239,520 

470,650 

141,240 

21,370 

483,600 

400 

69,610 

25,422,630 

813,220 

4,246,090 

4,129,460 

116,630 

504,610 

357,540 

144,070 

4,450 

598,420 

328,320 

119,380 

2,590 

30 

12,510 

29,660 

456,900 

4,650 

28,490 

20,400 

403,350 

7,930 

39,460 

150 

4,450 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop 

year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 

3

 Total may not add due to rounding. 

4

 Acreage is not estimated. 

5

 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 10 NASS, USDA 

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 

(Metric Units) 1

Yield Production Crop 

2007 2008 2007 2008 

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons 

Grains & Hay 

 Barley 

 Corn for Grain 

 Corn for Silage 

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa 

 All Other 

 Oats 

 Proso Millet 

 Rice 

 Rye 

 Sorghum for Grain 

 Sorghum for Silage 

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter 

 Durum 

 Other Spring 

Oilseeds 

 Canola 

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed 

 Mustard Seed 

 Peanuts 

 Rapeseed 

 Safflower 

 Soybeans for Beans 

 Sunflower 

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops 

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 

 Amer-Pima 

 Sugarbeets 

 Sugarcane 

 Tobacco 

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils 

 Austrian Winter Peas 

 Dry Edible Beans 

 Dry Edible Peas 

 Lentils 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. 

 Coffee (HI) 

 Ginger Root (HI) 

 Hops 

 Peppermint Oil 

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter 

 Spring 

 Summer 

 Fall 

 Spearmint Oil 

 Sweet Potatoes 

 Taro (HI) 3

3.25 

9.48 

39.26 

5.47 

7.51 

4.36 

2.18 

1.81 

8.05 

1.72 

4.66 

34.87 

2.72 

2.84 

2.28 

2.49 

1.40 

1.06 

0.68 

3.51 

1.46 

1.36 

2.77 

1.61 

0.98 

0.96 

1.54 

57.37 

78.34 

2.45 

1.29 

1.92 

2.20 

1.29 

1.31 

39.23 

2.18 

0.10 

44.59 

24.10 

32.95 

37.60 

46.00 

0.14 

21.21 

28.02 

4,611,940 

332,092,180 

96,459,140 

136,353,500 

65,838,930 

70,514,560 

1,329,560 

376,820 

8,956,450 

201,020 

12,827,410 

5,629,990 

56,246,960 

41,258,460 

1,950,970 

13,037,520 

659,450 

5,983,790 

149,970 

14,440 

1,696,730 

590 

94,800 

70,357,800 

1,310,230 

4,143,950 

3,964,330 

179,620 

28,950,080 

28,009,330 

353,180 

5,760 

1,150,810 

721,350 

154,580 

24,540 

3,400 

1,270 

27,330 

3,080 

20,373,370 

112,170 

938,660 

766,890 

18,555,650 

1,080 

836,970 

1,810 

124,740 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop 

year. 2

 Production may not add due to rounding. 

3

 Yield is not estimated. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 11 NASS, USDA 

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 

(Metric Units) 1

Production Crop 

2006 2007 2008 

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons 

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit 

 Lemons 

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL) 

 Tangerines 

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus 

 Apples 

 Apricots 

 Bananas (HI) 

 Grapes 

 Olives (CA) 

 Papayas (HI) 

 Peaches 

 Pears 

 Prunes, Dried (CA) 

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) 

Nuts & Misc. 

 Almonds (CA) (shelled) 

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) 

 Pecans (in-shell) 

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) 

 Maple Syrup 

1,117,650 

889,040 

8,183,710 

57,150 

378,300 

29,030 

4,468,660 

40,350 

9,070 

5,785,250 

21,320 

13,020 

916,370 

763,880 

179,620 

19,500 

508,020 

39,010 

93,580 

313,890 

7,240 

1,430,630 

637,750 

6,884,620 

50,800 

307,540 

4,237,730 

80,070 

9,530 

6,105,080 

120,200 

15,100 

1,009,460 

799,180 

73,480 

10,800 

616,890 

32,660 

158,370 

290,300 

6,290 

1,341,730 

637,750 

9,001,090 

53,520 

393,720 

1

 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop 

year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2

 Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 

3

 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 12 NASS, USDA 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 13 NASS, USDA 

January Weather Summary

Cold weather settled across the West during the second week of January, following a barrage of storms that improved 

high-elevation snow packs and aided pastures, rangeland, and winter grains. Below-normal temperatures persisted in 

the West through month=s end, along with periods of additional rain and snow that further improved the Western watersupply situation but caused local flooding. In the Northwest, some winter grains were buried by a substantial snow 

cover by month=s end. 

Meanwhile on the Plains, winter wheat continued to fare reasonably well, despite a generally dry month with large 

temperature fluctuations. For the most part, snow provided some insulation for the Plains= wheat during spells of 

bitterly cold weather. On the southern High Plains, however, much of the wheat continued to suffer from the effects of 

poor crop establishment that resulted from autumn dryness. 

Farther east, Midwestern weather highlights included early-month downpours and flooding in the central Corn Belt. 

Upper Midwestern livestock were stressed due to deep snow cover and occasional bitter cold. 

Elsewhere, significant rain fell along and near the Gulf Coast, but near- to below-normal precipitation totals were 

observed elsewhere across the South. Enough rain fell in the Southeast to benefit pastures and winter grains, although 

low lake levels and subsoil moisture shortages were symptoms of lingering long-term drought. 

Cold weather and high winds caused some damage to strawberries, vegetables, and ornamentals across Florida=s 

peninsula on January 3, but low temperatures were not a significant threat thereafter across the Deep South. January 

temperatures were persistently below normal but never extremely low in California, where light freezes were noted on 

as many as 10 days in the San Joaquin Valley. For the month, temperatures ranged from 5 to 10 degrees F below 

normal in a few high-elevation Western valleys, but averaged at least 5 degrees F above normal in parts of the 

Northeast. 

January Agricultural Summary 

In Arizona, Texas, and California, weed and insect control measures were ongoing. In Arizona, half of the winter 

wheat crop was planted by January 13 and one-fourth of the alfalfa had been harvested by month’s end. California oats 

were showing good growth as rains benefited small grain development. However, planting preparations in California 

were slowed due to the wet conditions. Texas small grains remained stressed due to the lack of moisture. Cotton field 

preparation was underway in the High Plains while cotton harvest neared completion in the Low Plains and the 

Edwards Plateau by January 28. Corn planting preparations were ongoing in the Blacklands. Georgia producers 

prepared for spring planting and wheat side dressing while wet fields slowed nitrogen applications during the last week 

of January. However, rains continued to ease drought conditions and improved the condition of small grains. 

Sugarcane harvest was ongoing in Florida and Texas during January. 

California rains delayed activities in some orchards and vineyards of California and storms early in the month caused 

some fruit crop damage. Throughout the month, fruit and nut growers continued to apply chemicals and prune and 

replant orchards and groves. In California, producers were digging strawberry, raspberry, and blueberry stock plants. 

By mid-month, California cherry and almond trees in Kern County were budding and by the end of the month, 

strawberries were growing well in Tulare and Fresno counties. Pecan harvest continued in Texas and neared 

completion in the Cross Timbers, Blacklands, and Trans-Pecos regions while pruning of vines and trees by grape and 

pecan producers was evident in the State. Florida strawberry harvest and packing continued. 

Harvesting, packing, and marketing was ongoing across all winter vegetable producing States. Herbicide and 

insecticide treatments were evident while spring planting preparations continued. California experienced some planting 

delays due to wet fields as fumigations for carrots and tomato crops were evident. Potato planting had begun in Florida 

and Texas by month’s end. 

Citrus harvest continued in Arizona, California, and Florida as boxes were packed and marketed throughout the month. 

California experienced slight harvest delays due to rain while cool mornings and moisture benefited fruit set on all 

varieties. 

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2007 is forecast at 30.9 million tons, of which 29.1 million 

tons are expected to be for sugar and 1.74 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is up fractionally 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 14 NASS, USDA 

from the January forecast and 4 percent above the 2006 production. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 883,500 acres 

for sugar and seed during the 2007 crop year, unchanged from last month but 2 percent less than last year. If realized, 

this will be the smallest area harvested for sugar and seed since 1990. Yield is forecast at 34.9 tons per acre, the same 

as the last forecast but up 2.0 tons from last year. 

The yield in Florida for sugar and seed, at 37.0 tons per acre, is up 0.1 ton from last month and up 1.1 tons from last 

year. Sugarcane harvest continued in the Everglades region throughout the month of January. Wetland sugarcane 

harvest is progressing at a steady pace. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. 

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2007-08 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.48 million tons, down 1 percent from the January 1 

forecast and 6 percent lower than the previous season. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 24.5 million boxes 

(1.04 million tons), down 2 percent from the January forecast and 10 percent below last season. 

The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 7.50 million boxes (319,000 tons), down 6 percent from January’s forecast 

and 19 percent below last season’s final utilization. Average fruit size for white grapefruit is slightly smaller than 

initially projected and is the smallest on record since the 1990-91 season. Droppage for white grapefruit increased 

substantially to 18 percent and is the highest for any of the previous 10 non-hurricane seasons. The Florida colored 

grapefruit forecast, at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from the January forecast but 5 percent below 

the 2006-07 final utilization. Rainfall totals were above average in the upper portion of the citrus belt and below 

average in the lower central growing region. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried 

forward from the January forecast. 

Tangerines: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 434,000 tons, unchanged from the January forecast but 28 percent 

higher than the final utilization in 2006-07. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.80 million boxes (228,000 tons), 

unchanged from January’s forecast but 4 percent higher than the 2006-07 utilization of 4.60 million boxes. Early 

tangerine harvest is nearly complete. The later maturing Honey tangerine droppage is at 34 percent, slightly below the 

previous ten season average. Arizona and California tangerine production estimates are carried forward from January. 

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 

4 percent above the 2006-07 final utilized production. Fresh shipments have been steady but processed fruit shipments 

have declined. 

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.81 million pounds for December 2007, down 9 percent 

from November but 22 percent higher than the comparable month a year ago. Total area in crop for December is 

estimated at 2,050 acres, down 2 percent from last month and 13 percent less than December 2006. Harvested area 

totaled 1,255 acres, 8 percent lower than November 2007 but up 11 percent from the same month the previous year. In 

December, orchards experienced cool, wet weather with gusty winds. Lower temperatures and cloudy skies delayed 

fruit development, while young plantings made steady progress. Growers increased spraying efforts to limit the spread 

of diseases. 

Florida Citrus: The citrus crop escaped serious damage from a cold snap the first week of the month when 

temperatures dropped to the upper 20s and lower 30s across the citrus producing region. According to grower reports, 

the lowest temperatures, at 27 degrees, were in Arcadia and Lake Alfred; however, the duration was not long enough to 

cause any significant damage to the trees or fruit. Slight increases in droppage were observed in the northern and 

Indian River production areas. Temperatures warmed by the end of the month, with daily highs at least in the mid 70s 

in all areas. Weekly harvest amounts rebounded from the holiday season. Early and midseason orange weekly harvest, 

primarily for processing, was over six million boxes by the third week of January. Grapefruit harvest stayed under a 

million boxes per week. Most packinghouses transitioned to Temple oranges and Honey tangerines once the harvest of 

navel oranges and Sunburst tangerines was finished. Overall, trees and fruit were reported in good condition, with good 

fruit sets. Aggressive production practices, scouting techniques, and removal of abandoned groves were being used to 

control greening. Grove care included irrigating, mowing, pesticide spraying, fertilizing, and hedging and topping. 

California Citrus: At the beginning of January, citrus growers carefully watched their groves with the onset of cold 

temperatures. Rainy weather eased grower’s fears of dry frost in some areas. Blood orange harvest began at the 

beginning of the month. Mandarin, lemon, pummelo, Oro Blanco grapefruit, and navel orange harvests continued. 

With strong storms occurring at the end of January, citrus fruit were picked as weather permitted. Citrus growers were 

applying foliar nutrients and treatments to control fungus, insects, and weeds. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 15 NASS, USDA 

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape growers pruned, cultivated, tied vines, fertilized, and treated to control 

weeds and insects. Similar activities continued in stone fruit orchards. Storm systems containing heavy rains and 

mountain snow swept through the State in January. Cherry trees were budding out by month’s end. Strawberries were 

growing well in Fresno County and blueberry bushes were being planted. Nursery stock digging and trimming 

continued in strawberry and raspberry fields, but began winding down by the end of the month. At the end of January, 

rains put a hold on cultural activities. New plantings were taking place when possible in vineyards and orchards in 

preparation for the new season. Olive tree pruning continued. Almond and walnut trees were being pruned and 

dormant sprays were applied in almond groves. Young almond trees were planted in some areas, while strong winds 

destroyed established almond trees in others. Some almond trees were budding in Kern County by the end of the 

month.
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 16 NASS, USDA 

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which 

produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based 

on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or 

special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and 

subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the 

previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct 

grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective 

measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. 

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, 

and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the 

Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published 

February 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month 

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in 

September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including 

information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local 

utilization and home use. 

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square 

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production 

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage 

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root 

Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast 

relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from 

those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.0 percent. However, if you exclude 

the 5 abnormal production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 

2.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or 

below the final estimates by more than 4.0 percent, or 2.9 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 

(90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.9 percent, or 5.2 percent, excluding abnormal 

seasons. 

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 

346,000 tons (323,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 655,000 tons (3,000 tons to 

638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 

6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not 

imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. 
 

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board 

February 2008 17 NASS, USDA 

Information Contacts 

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to 

contact for additional information. 

Jeff Geuder, Chief ................................................................................................................... (202) 720-2127 

 Field Crops Section 

 Greg Thessen, Head .................................................................................... (202) 720-2127 

 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings .................................................... (202) 720-5944 

 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye .........................................................................(202) 720-8068 

 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed ..................................................(202) 720-9526 

 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice .............................................................(202) 720-7688 

 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds ............................. (202) 720-7369 

 Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum ............................................................ (202) 690-3234 

 Dawn Keen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops ..................................... (202) 720-7621 

 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section 

 Lance Honig, Head ..................................................................................... (202) 720-2127 

 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco .......................... (202) 720-7235 

 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, 

 Strawberries ................................................................... (202) 720-2157 

 Faye Propsom- Citrus, Tropical Fruits .......................................................(202) 720-5412 

 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts .................................... (202) 720-4215 

 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, 

 Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, 

 Wrinkled Seed Peas ....................................................... (202) 720-3250 

 Mike Jacobsen- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, 

 Plums, Prunes ................................................................. (202) 720-4288 

 Kim Ritchie – Hops .................................................................................... (360) 902-1940 

 Lance Honig - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes .................................. (202) 720-2127 
 

 

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