Cr Pr 2-2 (12-02)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released December 10, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Cotton Production Down 2 Percent

All Orange Production Unchanged from October

All cotton production is forecast at 17.4 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from November and

14 percent less than last year’s record high production. This has resulted in a yield decrease of 17 pounds

from last month and 57 pounds from last year. Harvested area, at 12.9 million acres, is unchanged from

November but 7 percent below 2001. Southeastern growers are continuing to see the results of adverse

weather that has affected their season.

The U.S. all orange December forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.3 million tons, unchanged from the

October 1 forecast but down 10 percent from last season’s final utilization. Florida’s all orange forecast

remains at 197 million boxes (8.87 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous season. Weather

conditions this fall have seen temperatures generally below average with normal rainfall in most areas. Early

and midseason varieties are forecast at 113 million boxes (5.09 million tons), unchanged from the October

forecast but 12 percent below last season. Fruit size followed the typical November growth pattern. 

Droppage continues to be above average, nearing the maximum of the past 10 seasons. Florida’s Valencia

forecast is unchanged at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons) but is 18 percent below last season. Fruit size

remains above the 10 season maximum. The growth rate is slowing and is expected to continue to slow until

harvest. Droppage is above the 10 season average. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production

forecasts are carried forward from the October forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2002-03 season is forecast at 1.57 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The final all orange yield for the 2001-02 season as reported by the Florida

Citrus Processors Association was 1.58 gallons per box. Projected juice yield for 2002-03 early-midseason

and Valencias varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield

assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on December 10, 2002.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Keith J. Collins

Agricultural Statistics Board

Acting Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 3 NASS, USDA

 Contents

Page

Beans, Dry Edible ...................................................................... 7

Citrus ................................................................................ 6

Coffee ............................................................................... 15

Cotton ............................................................................... 4

 Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts ........................................................ 22

Cottonseed ............................................................................ 5

Crop Summary ........................................................................ 16

Crop Comments ....................................................................... 25

Information Contacts ................................................................... 31

Papayas .............................................................................. 5

Pecans ............................................................................... 14

Reliability of Production Data in this Report ................................................. 30

Sugarcane ............................................................................ 15

Weather Maps ........................................................................ 23

Weather Summary ..................................................................... 24
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 4 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2001 and Forecasted December 1, 2002

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Nov 1 Dec 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

605.0

290.0

1,065.0

625.0

1,480.0

855.0

1,600.0

400.0

65.0

965.0

185.0

296.0

615.0

4,250.0

104.0

159.5

13,559.5

7.5

239.0

5.2

16.5

268.2

605.0

297.5

1,065.0

864.0

1,480.0

855.0

1,600.0

400.0

70.2

965.0

185.0

296.0

615.0

4,266.5

104.0

159.5

13,827.7

585.0

232.0

930.0

477.0

1,430.0

500.0

1,170.0

385.0

56.0

945.0

190.0

286.0

560.0

4,600.0

100.0

174.0

12,620.0

7.4

209.0

7.0

18.0

241.4

585.0

239.4

930.0

686.0

1,430.0

500.0

1,170.0

385.0

63.0

945.0

190.0

286.0

560.0

4,618.0

100.0

174.0

12,861.4

730

1,142

826

1,359

720

580

719

834

916

832

511

686

763

481

929

566

694

928

1,283

969

1,059

1,254

730

1,137

826

1,338

720

580

719

834

920

832

511

686

763

483

929

566

705

615

1,241

841

1,439

604

720

821

798

857

483

455

302

651

532

480

579

653

908

1,309

960

987

1,263

615

1,231

841

1,399

604

720

821

798

869

483

455

302

651

534

480

579

665

492

1,241

852

1,439

587

720

788

761

857

437

505

252

686

522

480

579

636

908

1,332

960

987

1,283

492

1,231

852

1,406

587

720

788

761

869

437

505

252

686

524

480

579

648

920.0

690.0

1,833.0

1,770.0

2,220.0

1,034.0

2,396.0

695.0

124.0

1,673.0

197.0

423.0

978.0

4,260.0

201.3

188.1

19,602.4

14.5

639.0

10.5

36.4

700.4

920.0

704.5

1,833.0

2,409.0

2,220.0

1,034.0

2,396.0

695.0

134.5

1,673.0

197.0

423.0

978.0

4,296.4

201.3

188.1

20,302.8

600.0

600.0

1,650.0

1,430.0

1,750.0

750.0

1,920.0

610.0

100.0

860.0

200.0

150.0

800.0

5,000.0

100.0

210.0

16,730.0

14.0

580.0

14.0

37.0

645.0

600.0

614.0

1,650.0

2,010.0

1,750.0

750.0

1,920.0

610.0

114.0

860.0

200.0

150.0

800.0

5,037.0

100.0

210.0

17,375.0

 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3 Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2002 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 5 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

2000-2001 and Forecasted December 1, 2002

State

Production

2000 2001 2002 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 6,435.6 7,452.2 6,497.0

 1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2001 2002

2001 2002 2001 2002

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oct

Nov

2,700

2,710

2,155

2,155

1,920

1,920

1,495

1,495

4,940

4,330

4,005

4,055

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 6 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2002 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL 7

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus 8

 FL

480

35,500

128,000

2,000

165,980

420

19,000

95,300

235

114,955

900

54,500

223,300

2,235

280,935

1,250

18,700

27,300

250

6,300

46,000

7,200

59,750

650

2,200

5,600

8,450

3,600

22,600

26,200

2,100

40

270

34,000

128,000

1,530

163,800

250

22,000

102,000

210

124,460

520

56,000

230,000

1,740

288,260

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

6,000

46,700

5,900

58,760

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

19,000

21,800

2,150

30

200

40,000

113,000

1,400

154,600

250

23,000

84,000

180

107,430

450

63,000

197,000

1,580

262,030

1,400

16,000

24,000

100

6,200

40,000

5,600

51,900

450

2,300

5,200

7,950

2,800

21,000

23,800

2,400

18

1,331

5,760

85

7,194

16

713

4,288

10

5,027

34

2,044

10,048

95

12,221

56

795

1,160

8

211

1,955

288

2,462

24

83

266

373

137

859

996

95

2

10

1,275

5,760

65

7,110

9

825

4,590

9

5,433

19

2,100

10,350

74

12,543

70

803

1,182

5

201

1,985

236

2,427

23

83

314

420

106

722

828

97

1

8

1,500

5,085

60

6,653

9

863

3,780

8

4,660

17

2,363

8,865

68

11,313

63

680

1,020

3

208

1,700

224

2,135

17

86

247

350

106

798

904

108

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2

 Net

lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus &

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and

midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous

forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors. 7 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst,

Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. 8 Estimates discontinued as of the

2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 7 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2000-2002 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM 2

NY

ND

OR

SD

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

115.0

120.0

90.0

18.0

285.0

165.0

40.5

165.0

25.0

610.0

12.0

11.0

20.0

5.4

32.0

8.3

36.0

1,758.2

88.0

115.0

75.0

15.0

215.0

115.0

43.5

160.0

15.0

23.0

440.0

10.0

18.0

30.0

6.1

34.0

6.3

27.0

1,435.9

92.0

92.0

95.0

18.0

270.0

170.0

26.5

185.0

8.0

25.0

790.0

9.8

21.0

37.5

1.8

41.0

7.1

30.0

1,919.7

112.0

110.0

88.0

16.0

275.0

150.0

34.8

156.0

24.5

525.0

11.7

10.8

16.6

3.0

32.0

8.1

34.0

1,607.5

85.0

105.0

73.0

14.0

130.0

105.0

28.5

148.0

15.0

22.3

400.0

9.5

17.0

26.4

5.7

34.0

6.1

24.0

1,248.5

89.0

85.0

93.0

14.5

265.0

150.0

23.0

165.0

8.0

24.5

690.0

9.1

16.0

32.5

0.3

41.0

7.0

27.0

1,739.9

Yield per Acre 3 Production 3

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM 2

NY

ND

OR

SD

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

1,840

1,800

1,950

1,810

1,500

1,600

1,400

2,070

1,460

1,450

1,800

2,090

950

330

2,000

1,800

2,240

1,643

1,760

1,700

1,950

1,850

600

1,500

1,320

2,150

2,000

870

1,550

1,810

1,590

1,320

300

1,700

1,800

2,140

1,569

2,030

2,100

2,000

1,100

1,850

1,650

1,630

2,100

1,800

1,360

1,530

1,730

1,630

970

1,670

2,000

1,960

2,200

1,733

2,059

1,980

1,716

289

4,125

2,400

486

3,230

358

7,613

211

226

158

10

640

146

762

26,409

1,496

1,785

1,424

259

780

1,575

376

3,185

300

194

6,200

172

270

348

17

578

110

514

19,583

1,807

1,785

1,860

160

4,903

2,475

374

3,465

144

333

10,557

157

261

315

5

818

137

594

30,150

 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2 Estimates discontinued in 2000, reinstated in 2001. 3 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 8 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Large Lima

 CA

Baby Lima

 CA

Navy

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

20.5

24.5

7.3

125.0

66.0

4.0

138.0

0.7

3.2

2.0

346.2

7.2

2.6

104.5

6.5

1.1

7.0

128.9

1.4

0.6

0.9

2.9

14.8

12.2

3.0

65.0

48.0

95.0

1.3

1.0

213.3

4.2

8.0

1.1

84.0

8.0

1.2

3.0

109.5

0.9

0.5

0.4

1.8

19.0

21.5

5.4

85.0

67.0

2.9

180.0

4.0

2.0

346.3

3.1

3.0

1.2

77.8

5.8

0.9

3.0

94.8

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.6

19.5

23.5

7.1

120.0

60.0

3.5

111.0

0.6

3.1

1.8

307.1

7.0

2.3

100.0

5.5

1.1

6.8

122.7

1.4

0.6

0.9

2.9

14.5

11.5

2.9

30.0

44.0

85.0

1.1

0.8

163.8

4.1

3.5

0.9

79.0

7.5

1.2

2.5

98.7

0.9

0.5

0.4

1.8

18.2

21.0

5.3

84.0

58.0

2.7

151.0

3.9

1.5

306.4

3.0

3.0

1.0

67.7

4.9

0.9

2.0

82.5

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.6

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 9 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 1 Production 1

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Large Lima

 CA

Baby Lima

 CA

Navy

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

2,240

2,310

2,250

1,500

1,650

2,200

1,460

1,170

2,480

2,220

1,554

2,090

1,520

2,040

1,510

2,180

2,370

2,029

2,070

2,670

2,110

2,207

2,250

2,040

2,170

570

1,620

1,560

2,270

1,630

1,411

2,150

570

1,440

2,260

1,710

2,250

1,840

2,136

2,220

2,200

2,000

2,167

1,980

2,330

2,250

1,930

1,800

2,520

1,540

2,460

2,270

1,731

2,100

2,000

1,200

1,900

1,510

2,220

2,050

1,886

2,000

2,400

1,880

2,063

437

542

160

1,800

990

77

1,620

7

77

40

4,771

146

35

2,040

83

24

161

2,489

29

16

19

64

326

235

63

170

713

1,327

25

13

2,311

88

20

13

1,786

128

27

46

2,108

20

11

8

39

360

490

119

1,620

1,043

68

2,325

96

34

5,305

63

60

12

1,286

74

20

41

1,556

6

12

15

33

 1 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 10 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Pinto

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM 1

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

100.0

29.0

17.3

21.0

39.0

14.5

39.0

411.0

2.5

2.3

1.0

5.4

10.5

26.0

718.5

11.0

12.0

1.6

19.0

10.0

13.0

15.0

1.4

83.0

6.0

1.1

12.0

32.0

1.9

4.0

8.3

65.3

0.7

3.3

6.0

4.0

4.2

18.2

98.0

22.2

13.5

7.0

13.0

11.5

53.5

15.0

286.0

2.1

2.0

1.0

6.1

4.2

22.0

557.1

6.2

9.0

0.6

18.0

8.2

11.5

13.3

1.0

67.8

2.5

1.9

9.0

31.0

1.2

5.0

6.3

56.9

4.9

6.6

4.0

4.5

20.0

76.0

35.8

9.5

25.0

13.5

80.7

8.0

515.0

1.3

3.2

5.5

1.8

11.0

23.0

809.3

6.0

10.0

1.3

15.0

7.6

14.0

15.0

1.4

70.3

2.5

1.4

8.5

42.0

2.0

7.0

7.1

70.5

11.6

8.9

9.0

6.1

35.6

92.0

28.2

15.5

20.0

34.0

13.8

36.0

363.0

2.4

2.3

1.0

3.0

10.5

24.5

646.2

11.0

11.0

1.6

19.0

9.6

12.3

14.6

1.4

80.5

6.0

1.1

12.0

30.0

1.8

3.5

8.1

62.5

0.7

3.3

5.8

3.5

4.2

17.5

89.0

21.5

12.6

4.5

12.0

10.0

47.5

15.0

261.0

1.9

2.0

0.9

5.7

4.2

20.0

507.8

6.2

8.4

0.6

11.0

7.7

11.0

13.1

1.0

59.0

2.5

1.8

7.0

29.0

1.2

4.7

6.1

52.3

4.8

5.6

3.8

4.5

18.7

71.0

35.0

9.5

22.0

13.1

76.0

8.0

460.0

1.3

2.8

4.5

0.3

11.0

22.0

736.5

6.0

9.0

1.3

14.5

7.2

13.7

14.7

1.4

67.8

2.5

1.4

8.0

38.0

2.0

5.1

7.0

64.0

11.4

8.3

7.8

6.1

33.6

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 11 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 2 Production 2

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Pinto

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM 1

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

1,820

2,270

1,800

1,450

1,450

2,400

2,080

1,460

2,420

2,480

800

330

2,300

2,210

1,651

1,480

1,750

1,690

1,500

1,850

2,200

1,430

1,860

1,680

1,370

1,910

1,520

1,700

1,280

1,430

1,800

1,622

860

2,120

1,470

1,570

2,480

1,829

1,720

2,420

1,860

510

1,300

2,000

2,210

2,000

1,550

2,420

2,250

1,670

300

2,240

2,200

1,717

1,450

1,610

1,670

770

1,490

1,900

850

2,000

1,315

1,600

1,890

430

1,500

830

1,450

1,800

1,390

2,270

1,050

1,550

2,200

1,743

2,150

2,290

1,930

1,350

2,210

2,250

1,800

1,550

2,310

2,610

640

1,670

2,550

2,200

1,762

1,800

2,040

1,920

1,790

1,950

2,300

1,300

2,140

1,848

2,000

1,860

1,630

1,700

1,350

1,330

1,960

1,694

2,060

1,600

1,590

2,100

1,845

1,675

641

279

290

494

331

749

5,294

58

57

8

10

242

542

10,670

163

193

27

285

178

271

209

26

1,352

82

21

182

510

23

50

146

1,014

6

70

85

55

104

320

1,530

521

234

23

156

200

1,050

300

4,050

46

45

15

17

94

440

8,721

90

135

10

85

115

209

112

20

776

40

34

30

435

10

68

110

727

109

59

59

99

326

1,526

801

183

297

289

1,709

144

7,130

30

73

29

5

280

484

12,980

108

184

25

260

140

315

191

30

1,253

50

26

130

646

27

68

137

1,084

235

133

124

128

620

 1 Estimates discontinued in 2000, reinstated in 2001. 2 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 12 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 MN

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 Total

Black

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Garbanzo

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NY

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

7.2

8.0

2.2

17.4

3.5

1.4

26.0

0.8

31.7

1.0

1.1

55.0

4.9

0.8

5.2

25.0

1.2

94.2

15.3

7.5

22.8

24.5

28.6

25.3

15.0

5.8

4.0

9.5

112.7

8.0

8.0

0.8

0.7

19.0

3.7

0.7

3.7

2.9

6.5

2.4

1.5

11.5

1.0

1.0

71.4

3.8

12.0

3.0

18.8

1.5

2.6

26.0

0.6

30.7

0.6

63.0

2.0

1.1

6.7

19.0

2.0

94.4

12.0

20.0

32.0

29.0

28.8

31.5

6.3

19.0

5.0

12.1

17.0

148.7

9.8

8.0

1.5

1.5

7.0

4.5

0.5

3.6

1.8

4.0

2.4

2.6

9.0

0.7

1.0

57.9

11.6

11.0

2.8

6.4

31.8

1.7

2.5

20.0

24.2

4.0

110.0

11.9

2.3

6.0

60.0

2.6

196.8

12.6

22.0

34.6

18.5

17.0

12.6

8.6

4.0

10.3

11.0

82.0

10.2

6.0

1.0

18.0

8.0

3.6

0.4

7.3

2.0

4.6

4.0

3.5

10.0

0.8

2.0

81.4

7.0

8.0

2.2

17.2

3.5

1.4

25.0

0.5

30.4

1.0

1.1

53.0

4.3

0.8

5.2

22.0

1.2

88.6

15.3

5.8

21.1

23.5

28.0

20.5

11.0

5.8

3.9

9.5

102.2

8.0

7.0

0.8

0.5

18.0

3.5

0.5

3.4

2.9

5.5

2.3

1.5

9.8

1.0

0.9

65.6

3.7

6.5

3.0

13.2

1.5

2.6

12.0

0.5

16.6

0.6

52.0

1.3

1.0

6.3

18.0

2.0

81.2

12.0

17.5

29.5

27.0

28.0

18.0

6.0

16.5

4.7

11.3

17.0

128.5

9.8

7.6

1.5

1.4

3.5

4.0

0.5

3.5

1.7

3.5

2.4

2.6

8.0

0.7

0.7

51.4

11.3

11.0

2.4

6.4

31.1

1.7

2.5

19.0

23.2

3.9

108.0

10.0

2.1

5.8

51.0

2.6

183.4

12.4

20.0

32.4

18.0

16.6

9.5

6.2

3.7

5.8

11.0

70.8

9.2

5.0

1.0

14.5

8.0

3.1

0.4

2.8

2.0

4.0

3.6

3.5

8.0

0.8

1.5

67.4

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 13 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 1 Production 1

2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 MN

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 Total

Black

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Garbanzo

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NY

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

2,100

1,410

2,410

1,820

1,060

1,790

1,520

1,400

1,477

500

2,180

1,580

1,330

2,250

1,500

1,280

2,670

1,508

2,160

900

1,810

1,460

1,460

730

1,320

1,330

1,670

1,240

1,280

1,430

1,600

2,000

2,000

1,310

1,260

1,000

2,210

1,660

1,530

2,300

1,800

1,000

2,200

2,110

1,466

2,240

420

2,070

1,303

2,000

1,540

580

1,400

886

2,170

640

1,230

2,200

940

1,600

2,500

964

2,420

1,500

1,875

1,270

1,470

950

800

1,400

1,340

1,250

1,200

1,254

1,460

1,580

2,070

1,790

570

1,530

1,000

2,000

760

1,400

2,170

2,270

880

2,000

2,140

1,453

2,140

1,890

1,100

2,270

1,997

1,350

1,600

1,530

1,522

1,950

1,880

1,300

1,810

1,570

1,350

2,310

1,698

2,290

1,150

1,586

1,790

1,240

810

1,470

760

430

1,120

1,233

1,840

1,500

2,100

1,100

1,530

1,550

2,000

1,750

1,200

1,400

2,420

1,910

700

2,130

2,330

1,475

147

113

53

313

37

25

380

7

449

5

24

840

57

18

78

282

32

1,336

330

52

382

343

410

150

145

77

65

118

1,308

114

112

16

10

235

44

5

75

48

84

53

27

98

22

19

962

83

27

62

172

30

40

70

7

147

13

335

16

22

59

288

50

783

290

263

553

342

412

171

48

231

63

141

204

1,612

143

120

31

25

20

61

5

70

13

49

52

59

70

14

15

747

242

208

26

145

621

23

40

290

353

76

2,030

130

38

91

689

60

3,114

284

230

514

323

206

77

91

28

25

123

873

169

75

21

160

122

48

8

49

24

56

87

67

56

17

35

994

 1 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 14 NASS, USDA

Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2000-2001 and Forecasted December 1, 2002

Crop and State

Utilized Production

2000 2001 2002

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

Native & Seedling

 AL

 AR 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

All Pecans

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

10,000

14,500

650

3,400

1,200

65,000

3,500

2,500

35,000

1,400

200

1,200

22,000

160,550

5,000

250

2,100

15,000

550

14,500

1,000

200

2,300

400

8,000

49,300

15,000

14,500

900

3,400

3,300

80,000

550

18,000

3,500

35,000

1,600

2,500

1,600

30,000

209,850

10,000

21,000

1,950

3,700

1,200

85,000

3,500

3,000

60,000

2,700

2,000

2,500

50,000

246,550

5,000

650

2,100

25,000

2,200

10,500

1,500

500

18,000

1,500

25,000

91,950

15,000

21,000

2,600

3,700

3,300

110,000

2,200

14,000

4,500

60,000

3,200

20,000

4,000

75,000

338,500

6,500

14,000

1,200

2,800

900

42,000

2,000

2,200

36,000

1,700

2,000

800

25,000

137,100

500

500

600

3,000

1,700

4,000

800

300

12,000

200

15,000

38,600

7,000

14,000

1,700

2,800

1,500

45,000

1,700

6,000

3,000

36,000

2,000

14,000

1,000

40,000

175,700

 1 Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 15 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use,

State, and United States, 2001 and Forecasted December 1, 2002

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Nov 1 Dec 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

445.0

19.3

460.0

46.0

970.3

20.0

1.7

35.0

1.0

57.7

465.0

21.0

495.0

47.0

1,028.0

440.0

23.6

460.0

43.8

967.4

21.0

1.5

35.0

1.2

58.7

461.0

25.1

495.0

45.0

1,026.1

35.1

97.3

29.0

42.1

33.8

35.9

32.0

29.0

25.0

31.4

35.1

92.0

29.0

41.7

33.6

36.4

91.0

30.0

34.8

34.6

36.9

94.3

30.0

37.7

35.1

38.0

39.1

30.0

30.0

33.1

37.0

91.0

30.0

37.5

34.9

15,620

1,878

13,340

1,937

32,775

718

54

1,015

25

1,812

16,338

1,932

14,355

1,962

34,587

16,236

2,225

13,800

1,651

33,912

798

59

1,050

36

1,943

17,034

2,284

14,850

1,687

35,855

 1 Net tons.

Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

Hawaii 2000-2002

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

Acres Acres Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

HI 6,800 6,300 6,200 1,280 1,270 1,370 8,700 8,000 8,500

 1 Parchment basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 16 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

4,967.0

75,752.0

4,403.0

650.0

3,335.0

1,328.0

10,252.0

59,597.0

41,078.0

2,910.0

15,609.0

1,494.0

585.0

45.8

1,541.2

3.7

188.0

74,075.0

2,633.0

15,768.5

15,498.5

270.0

1,370.8

15.9

1,435.9

206.8

201.0

1,247.7

16.8

78.3

61.1

1,091.5

97.9

5,073.0

78,847.0

5,005.0

475.0

3,231.0

1,395.0

9,290.0

60,358.0

41,735.0

2,909.0

15,714.0

1,513.0

844.0

155.0

1,462.0

2.0

207.0

73,043.0

2,486.0

14,380.5

14,116.0

264.5

1,408.8

17.0

1,919.7

293.7

203.0

1,308.1

15.8

80.3

63.6

1,148.4

94.4

4,289.0

68,808.0

6,148.0

63,511.0

23,812.0

39,699.0

1,905.0

580.0

3,314.0

255.0

8,584.0

336.0

48,633.0

31,295.0

2,789.0

14,549.0

1,455.0

578.0

44.2

1,411.9

3.1

177.0

72,975.0

2,555.0

13,827.7

13,559.5

268.2

1,243.6

1,028.0

432.4

7.1

1,248.5

192.3

197.0

6.3

0.4

35.9

78.5

1,222.2

14.0

76.2

58.8

1,073.2

19.5

93.5

0.4

4,135.0

70,541.0

64,709.0

24,134.0

40,575.0

2,098.0

3,207.0

286.0

7,528.0

45,817.0

29,651.0

2,703.0

13,463.0

1,378.0

821.0

146.0

1,360.5

1.8

198.0

71,799.0

2,320.0

12,861.4

12,620.0

241.4

1,356.3

1,026.1

434.3

8.5

1,739.9

267.7

193.0

6.2

0.3

29.3

1,271.1

15.7

77.7

60.6

1,117.1

91.8

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 17 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.2

138.2

16.6

2.47

3.37

1.93

61.4

33.2

6,429

27.3

59.9

11.1

40.2

43.5

30.0

35.2

1,374

19.8

930

3,029

1,306

1,365

39.6

1,338

705

694

1,254

20.7

33.6

2,293

1,366

1,569

1,942

1,471

1,270

50,000

1,861

81

358

294

286

310

367

105

156

54.9

127.6

2.32

3.09

1.87

56.8

6,611

24.4

50.7

35.3

38.5

29.4

29.3

1,151

2,579

37.5

1,118

648

636

1,283

20.7

34.9

2,040

1,424

1,733

1,561

1,205

1,370

45,000

1,927

362

268

280

310

371

249,420

9,506,840

102,352

156,703

80,266

76,437

117,024

19,250

213,045

6,971

514,524

3,728

1,957,043

1,361,479

83,556

512,008

1,998,515

7,452.2

11,455

41,106

4,276,704

4,050

241,665

2,890,682

3,418,759

20,302.8

19,602.4

700.4

25,787

34,587

991,519

97

19,583

3,734

2,898

640

8,000

18,000

66,832.1

6,343

437,888

4,115

21,814

18,209

393,750

2,052

14,565

6,400

226,873

9,003,364

150,447

74,655

75,792

119,132

212,013

6,985

381,499

1,616,441

1,142,802

79,450

394,189

1,585,925

6,497.0

3,508,650

2,689,691

2,592,753

17,375.0

16,730.0

645.0

28,028

35,855

886,020

121

30,150

4,178

2,325

8,500

14,400

56,425.5

459,734

4,206

21,753

18,813

414,962

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 18 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2001 2002 2003

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lb

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,462

2

996

12,221

95

373

56

9,629.1

82.5

28,000.0

6,552.5

134.0

55,000.0

2,441.4

1,005.8

150.0

21.2

830,000

49.5

338,500

161,000

305.0

1,049

2,427

1

828

12,543

97

420

70

8,910.6

89.7

7,269.3

90.0

2,531.7

944.6

155.0

15.2

980,000

18.0

175,700

280,000

275.0

1,356

2,135

904

11,313

108

350

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 19 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,010,100

30,656,080

1,781,850

263,050

1,349,640

537,430

4,148,880

24,118,310

16,623,860

1,177,650

6,316,810

604,610

236,740

18,530

623,710

1,500

76,080

29,977,410

1,065,550

6,381,350

6,272,090

109,270

554,750

6,430

581,090

83,690

81,340

504,930

6,800

31,690

24,730

441,720

39,620

2,052,990

31,908,590

2,025,470

192,230

1,307,550

564,540

3,759,570

24,426,280

16,889,740

1,177,240

6,359,300

612,300

341,560

62,730

591,660

810

83,770

29,559,770

1,006,060

5,819,640

5,712,600

107,040

570,130

6,880

758,510

118,860

82,150

529,370

6,390

32,500

25,740

464,750

38,200

1,735,720

27,845,910

2,488,030

25,702,270

9,636,480

16,065,790

770,930

234,720

1,341,140

103,200

3,473,860

135,980

19,681,290

12,664,770

1,128,680

5,887,830

588,820

233,910

17,890

571,380

1,250

71,630

29,532,250

1,033,980

5,595,930

5,487,390

108,540

503,270

416,020

174,990

2,870

505,260

77,820

79,720

2,550

150

14,530

31,770

494,610

5,670

30,840

23,800

434,310

7,890

37,840

180

1,673,390

28,547,240

26,187,090

9,766,790

16,420,300

849,040

1,297,840

115,740

3,046,510

18,541,680

11,999,460

1,093,880

5,448,340

557,660

332,250

59,080

550,580

730

80,130

29,056,340

938,880

5,204,880

5,107,190

97,690

548,880

415,250

175,760

3,440

684,170

108,340

78,110

2,510

130

11,850

514,400

6,350

31,440

24,520

452,080

37,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 20 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.13

8.67

37.32

5.53

7.56

4.32

2.20

1.86

7.21

1.72

3.76

24.87

2.71

2.93

2.01

2.37

1.54

1.24

1.04

3.40

1.46

1.53

2.66

1.50

0.79

0.78

1.40

46.48

75.42

2.57

1.53

1.76

2.18

1.65

1.42

56.04

2.09

0.09

40.16

32.94

32.09

34.71

41.12

0.12

17.46

2.95

8.01

5.21

6.93

4.19

2.04

7.41

1.53

3.18

2.37

2.59

1.98

1.97

1.29

2.89

2.52

1.25

0.73

0.71

1.44

46.32

78.33

2.29

1.60

1.94

1.75

1.35

1.54

50.44

2.16

40.54

30.03

31.38

34.80

41.64

5,430,480

241,484,860

92,852,170

142,158,570

72,816,090

69,342,480

1,698,600

436,580

9,663,560

177,070

13,069,510

3,381,980

53,261,980

37,053,390

2,274,020

13,934,570

906,510

6,760,520

290,970

18,650

1,939,880

1,840

109,620

78,671,470

1,550,720

4,420,410

4,267,920

152,490

23,393,570

31,376,800

449,750

4,400

888,270

169,370

131,450

29,030

3,630

8,160

30,310

2,880

19,862,270

186,650

989,470

825,950

17,860,200

930

660,660

2,900

4,939,580

228,695,980

136,483,220

67,725,880

68,757,350

1,729,200

9,616,750

177,430

9,690,520

43,992,310

31,101,970

2,162,270

10,728,070

719,360

5,893,980

1,591,500

73,201,390

1,176,050

3,782,960

3,642,530

140,430

25,426,570

32,527,110

401,890

5,490

1,367,580

189,510

105,460

3,860

6,530

25,590

20,853,180

190,780

986,700

853,340

18,822,360

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 21 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2001 2002 2003

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,233,490

1,810

903,560

11,086,700

86,180

338,380

50,800

4,367,690

74,810

12,700

5,944,350

121,560

24,950

1,107,400

912,460

136,080

19,230

376,480

44,910

153,540

73,030

276,690

5,240

2,201,740

910

751,150

11,378,820

88,000

381,020

63,500

4,041,780

81,370

6,594,600

81,650

1,148,360

856,880

140,610

13,790

444,520

16,330

79,700

127,010

249,480

6,780

1,936,840

820,100

10,262,980

97,980

317,510

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 22 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting Objective Yield surveys in 7 cotton producing

States during 2002. Randomly selected cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to

obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 1998-2002 1

State Month 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

CA

GA

LA

MS

NC

TX

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

637

644

633

638

640

755

670

665

655

655

629

731

716

690

690

694

607

600

600

600

835

852

823

821

821

626

583

590

597

597

498

467

477

479

482

720

700

693

689

689

921

805

779

777

776

596

582

621

636

632

722

743

728

728

728

761

803

767

766

766

623

646

619

621

622

465

446

447

455

456

874

767

755

755

755

760

790

801

800

800

597

631

621

629

629

722

692

674

674

674

657

665

652

650

650

670

724

743

747

747

408

388

397

404

448

747

780

816

756

756

939

902

921

918

918

590

677

651

664

664

625

592

582

588

588

754

696

680

679

679

719

722

696

705

705

441

435

439

445

445

840

763

784

772

945

1,041

1,009

1,011

569

604

591

600

663

756

749

742

802

783

768

767

636

629

560

567

536

511

520

497

 1 Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially

opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November and December, excludes small bolls.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 23 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 24 NASS, USDA

November Weather Summary

Little precipitation fell across the central and north-central United States during November, while belownormal totals were observed in the Northwest. In California, the Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest, the

majority of the month’s precipitation fell during the passage of a single storm system from November 7-9. A

similar pattern was noted in the western Gulf Coast region, where little rain fell after November 4. Consistent

November precipitation was confined to the East, where monthly totals were generally near to above normal. 

Despite diminished storminess (compared to October) across the South, an extended Pacific jet stream

remained apparent in areas stretching from the vicinity of the International Date Line to the southern tier of

the United States. The Pacific jet stream, enhanced by a moderately strong El Niño, contributed moisture to

several storm systems, primarily across the eastern one-third of the country.

In the Delta, a three-week spell of mostly dry weather allowed for a gradual resumption of fieldwork (winter

wheat planting and final summer crop harvesting), following a final, early-November round of downpours

and lowland flooding. Although wet weather continued to hamper fieldwork in the Southeast, rain further

eased long-term drought. Farther north, cold weather slowed or halted winter wheat development from the

middle Mississippi Valley to the lower Great Lakes region. Elsewhere in the Midwest, cool, dry weather

aided final summer crop harvesting but increased stress on livestock. Farther west, drought-reduced soil

moisture reserves hindered winter wheat establishment across the northern and central High Plains and the

Northwest, leaving a portion of the crop susceptible to potential winter weather extremes, such as high winds

and low temperatures. In contrast, occasional showers on the southern Plains aided pastures and winter

grains, but slowed summer crop harvesting. Despite November 7-9 precipitation, the West continued to

experience a variety of drought-related problems, including limited irrigation reserves and severely stressed

rangelands.

Temperature patterns were governed by an amplified polar jet stream, which beginning in early October

arched northward into Alaska and dipped southward into the continental United States. The jet stream’s

southward push drove cold air across most of the Lower 48 by the end of October. A slight eastward shift in

the jet-stream configuration brought a return of mild weather to the West and northern High Plains during

November, but the Midwest, South, and East continued to experience below-normal temperatures. Monthly

readings ranged from 6 degrees F below normal in parts of Florida to as much as 8 degrees F above normal on

the Montana High Plains.

November Crop Summary

Row crop harvest continued with only brief rain delays in the Corn Belt but remained slow across most of the

South due to persistent rain. Above-normal temperatures stimulated germination and growth of winter wheat

on the central and northern Great Plains most of the month, although moisture shortages limited development

in many areas. Meanwhile, mild temperatures and adequate topsoil moisture aided winter wheat development

in the Corn Belt and southern Great Plains. In the West, one strong storm delivered much-needed

precipitation along the Pacific Coast, but total precipitation for November remained far below-normal in the

interior Pacific Northwest. In the Southwest, above-normal temperatures promoted development of fruit and

vegetable crops, winter grains, and forages. In the Florida Panhandle, late-month frost and unseasonably cold

weather halted growth of forages, but citrus groves in the Peninsula remained in good condition. 

Favorably dry weather supported the corn harvest during most of the month, although nearly all areas of the

Corn Belt experienced at least brief delays due to rain or snow at the beginning of the month. Also, parts of

the eastern Corn Belt experienced additional rain delays near midmonth. Despite favorably dry weather,

harvest progressed behind normal across most of the northwestern Corn Belt and adjacent parts of the Great

Plains. Early month harvest progress lagged most in Minnesota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile,

harvest was nearly complete along the southern boundary of the Corn Belt. After midmonth, harvest

remained active across the upper Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the Great Plains, but was virtually

complete across the central and eastern Corn Belt by November 24. Meanwhile, high grain moisture content

hampered progress on the central High Plains. Nationally, harvest was 97 percent complete on November 24,

compared with the 5-year average of 98 percent.

Soybean harvest approached completion across most of the Corn Belt with few delays during November,

although the eastern Corn Belt experienced occasional, brief rain delays. Early-month progress remained

active in the upper Mississippi Valley, but by midmonth, harvest activity in the Corn Belt was mostly

concentrated along the lower Ohio River Valley and along the western boundary, adjacent to the central Great

Plains. In the lower Mississippi Valley, heavy rain delayed harvest through the first half of the month, and
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 25 NASS, USDA

progress ranged from 2 to 4 weeks behind normal on November 10. Harvest accelerated in the Mississippi

Delta after midmonth, but progress remained behind normal in most areas, especially in Louisiana. Along the

Atlantic Coastal Plain, harvest lagged far behind normal. On November 24, harvest was 97 percent complete,

slightly less than the 5-year average of 98 percent.

Winter wheat seeding was complete in most areas at the beginning of November, but rain hindered progress

in many areas where sowing remained unfinished. Favorably dry weather supported a rapid acceleration of

the planting pace in the interior Mississippi Delta near midmonth and along the Atlantic Coastal Plain after

midmonth. However, seeding remained behind normal in both regions. Seeding continued with few delays in

California, and was active in Oregon despite unfavorably dry soils. Nationally, 96 percent of the acreage was

planted on November 24, slightly less than the 5-year average of 97 percent. Above-normal temperatures

stimulated emergence and growth on the central and northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest most of the

month. However, moisture shortages limited the crop’s response to the favorable warmth in many areas,

especially on the High Plains. In the eastern Corn Belt, below normal temperatures slightly hampered

vegetative growth, but topsoil moisture supplies were nearly ideal. After midmonth, light precipitation

promoted germination of late-planted fields in the Pacific Northwest, and topsoil moisture was adequate to

support germination in the lower Mississippi Valley. Ninety-one percent of the Nation’s winter wheat was

emerged by November 24, slightly more than the 90-percent average for this date.

Heavy rainfall frequently halted cotton harvest in many areas of the South during November, especially

through the first half of the month. The longest and most frequent interruptions were along the Gulf Coast

and adjacent interior areas of the southern Great Plains and Mississippi Delta. In the interior Southeast, rain

delays were frequent, but slightly shorter in duration in most areas. Along the Atlantic Coastal Plain, rain

delays were shorter and less frequent, although precipitation was above normal across much of this region as

well. By November 17, harvest was more than 2 weeks behind the 5-year average. However, significantly

drier weather prevailed in most areas after midmonth, and picking rapidly accelerated. In the Southwest,

picking neared completion well ahead of normal. On November 24, harvest was 77 percent complete, but

remained well behind the 5-year average of 87 percent.

Widespread precipitation limited sorghum harvest at the beginning of the month, especially on the southern

Great Plains, where late crop ripening and muddy fields contributed to slow progress until midmonth. 

Early-month harvest was more active in the central and northern Great Plains, but progress lagged as much as

2 weeks behind normal in Kansas. Mostly dry weather supported an active harvest pace in the central and

southern Great Plains after midmonth. Elsewhere, harvest neared completion in the Corn Belt and northern

Great Plains. By November 24, harvest was 90 percent complete, about a week behind the 96-percent

average for this date.

The peanut harvest fell well behind last year’s pace and the 5-year average due to early-month rain that

sharply curtailed digging along the eastern Gulf Coast and southern Great Plains. Harvest fell nearly 2 weeks

behind normal in Texas and approached completion slightly later than normal along the eastern Gulf Coast. 

Harvest rapidly accelerated in the southern Great Plains near midmonth, but wet weather hindered progress in

the Southeast until after midmonth. By November 24, harvest was 95 percent complete, slightly behind the

5-year average of 96 percent.

By November 10, the sugarbeet harvest was 98 percent complete in the four major sugarbeet-producing

States, matching last year and the average for this date. Very dry weather supported a rapid early-month

harvest pace in Michigan, and harvest rapidly approached completion in Idaho despite rain delays. 

Temperatures were cold enough to maintain the quality and sucrose content of piled beets most of the month,

although afternoon temperatures were occasionally unfavorably warm, especially in the Red River Valley and

northern High Plains. 

The sunflower harvest remained active in the central and northern Great Plains during most of the month, as

mostly dry weather aided harvest in the four major sunflower-producing States. However, progress lagged

behind normal in most areas throughout the month, and on November 24, harvest was 94 percent complete,

compared with the 5-year average of 95 percent.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 12.6 million acres, is unchanged from the November estimate but

7 percent less than last year. American-Pima harvested area, at 241,400 acres, is also unchanged from

November but down 10 percent from the 2001 harvested acres. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 26 NASS, USDA

In the Southeastern States, cotton picking progressed rapidly during the first half of November, but

widespread, persistent rains virtually halted fieldwork in the middle of the month. However, harvest

approached completion toward the end of the month as dry weather dominated the region. Objective yield

data indicate below average number of bolls for Georgia and North Carolina. Georgia boll weights are high,

but North Carolina boll weights are relatively low. 

The Delta Region cotton harvest continued to be delayed during the first half of November due to unrelenting

downpours. Growers managed to make progress with the harvest during the drier, last half of the month. 

Objective yield data continue to show boll counts in Arkansas higher than average with weights below

average. Mississippi’s boll counts are surpassed only by the 1997 and 1998 counts. The average weight per

boll in Mississippi is the highest of the previous 10 years. Louisiana’s boll counts and weights are the highest

since 1994. 

Heavy rains during the first half of November prevented Texas cotton growers from making significant

harvest progress. Conditions improved later in the month and the pace of harvesting accelerated rapidly. 

Data from the Objective Yield survey show boll counts in Texas are the highest since 1997 and the average

weight is the highest of the previous 10 years. 

Harvest of upland cotton in California and Arizona was nearing completion by the end of November as

exceptional fall harvesting weather has prevailed. Data from the Objective Yield survey indicate California’s

count of bolls continues to rank as the highest of the last 10 years, but the weight per boll is the lowest.

American-Pima production is forecast at 645,000 bales, up 2 percent from the November forecast but

8 percent lower than last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at a record high 1,283 pounds per harvested acre. If

realized, this would be 29 pounds above the previous record established a year ago. California growers are

expecting a record high yield of 1,332 pounds per harvested acre. 

All cotton ginned totaled 12,367,400 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 15,564,150 running

bales ginned by the same date last year and 13,619,100 running bales ginned in 2000.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 4.06 million pounds for November, up 1 percent

from last month but 6 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,155 acres, unchanged from October

but 20 percent less than last November. Harvested area totaled 1,495 acres, unchanged from last month but

22 percent less than November 2001. November weather conditions were mostly favorable over major

papaya production areas. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards.

Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 30.2 million cwt for 2002, up 9 percent from the

October forecast and 54 percent above last year. This increase is a rebound from last year’s drought reduced

production in eastern and central States. Harvested area is forecast at 1.74 million acres, 3 percent above the

last forecast and 39 percent above 2001. The average U.S. yield of 1,733 pounds per acre climbed

101 pounds above the October forecast and is 164 pounds greater than a year ago. Production is above a year

ago in 10 of the 18 producing States. Most notable are a six-fold increase in Michigan after last year’s

drought and a 70 percent gain in North Dakota where planted acres are record high. Production is up from

last year for all classes except garbanzo, blackeye, great northern, and small white. Navies are up

130 percent, pinto’s climbed 49 percent, and blacks are almost quadrupled from last year. Small red, baby

lima, cranberry, and pink are also up sharply.

Production in North Dakota is forecast at 10.6 million cwt, 70 percent above 2001. The average yield,

at 1,530 pounds per acre, is slightly below last year but harvested acres jumped 73 percent. Harvest was

finished November 10, well behind normal, as wet weather and snow in October slowed progress. Production

in Minnesota, at 2.48 million cwt, is up 57 percent from last year.

In Michigan, production is forecast at 4.90 million cwt, 529 percent above last year’s drought affected crop

and 19 percent above 2000 output. The average yield was 1,850 pounds per acre, more than triple last year. 

Good weather during planting time combined with timely rains during the summer helped dry beans develop

at a normal pace. Harvest finished in mid October. New York produced 333,000 cwt of dry beans this year,

72 percent above last season but 7 percent less than two years ago. 

Nebraska’s production is forecast at 3.47 million cwt, up 9 percent from 2001 and 7 percent above two years

ago. Average yield in Nebraska is forecast at 2,100 pounds per acre. Irrigated beans fared well during the

hot, dry summer but production of non-irrigated beans was greatly reduced. Production in Colorado, at
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 27 NASS, USDA

1.79 million cwt, is equal to last year but down 10 percent from 2000. Dryland beans were hurt by the hot,

dry weather and some irrigated fields were short of water. 

In Idaho, production is forecast at 1.86 million cwt, up 31 percent from last year and 8 percent above two

years ago. Average yield, at 2,000 pounds per acre, is 50 pounds above the last two seasons. Harvest was

completed in early October after a good season in southern Idaho. Garbanzos in the north struggled from lack

of moisture. The Washington dry bean crop was 42 percent larger than last year with more acres and higher

yields. Production in California is forecast at 1.81 million cwt, 21 percent above last year but 12 percent

below two years ago. Harvest went well in California, with a few fields left to be harvested in December. 

Wyoming production is up 16 percent from last year with a good quality crop. The Texas production forecast

is 9 percent below last season. Heat and drought conditions during the summer followed by heavy continuous

rain in the fall adversely affected yields in Texas. Extremely dry weather hurt beans in New Mexico. Dry

weather and heat ruined dryland beans in Utah leaving only irrigated fields for harvest.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.14 million tons, down 4 percent from the

October 1 forecast and 12 percent less than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is

40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons), 5 percent less than the October forecast. If realized, Florida’s utilized

production will be 14 percent below last season and the smallest since the 35.6 million boxes harvested in the

1989-90 freeze affected season. The forecast’s for the white and colored grapefruit are each down 1 million

boxes, respectively. The all white grapefruit forecast is 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), down 6 percent

from October and 15 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24,000 boxes

(1.02 million tons), 4 percent less than October and 14 percent less than last season. In Florida, fruit

population is down 19 percent from last season. Average fruit size is large and is projected to be near the

record high level at maturity. Fruit loss from droppage is expected to be slightly higher than last season. 

Forecast for Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from October.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2002-03 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 2.40 million boxes (108,000 tons). This is

12 percent more than last season’s utilized production. Average fruit size is the second largest of the

10 season series and loss from droppage is expected to be below average, similar to the October 1 forecast. If

the forecast is realized, it will be the largest crop of the past three seasons.

Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 350,000 tons, unchanged from the October 1

forecast but down 17 percent from last season’s utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop forecast

is continued at 5.20 million boxes (247,000 tons), 21 percent lower than last year’s utilization. Harvest of

Fallglo tangerines is complete, while the Sunburst harvest is well underway. Both are considered early type

varieties. Harvest of late type variety, Honey tangerines, has not yet begun. Average fruit size is slightly

above the average but much smaller than the record large size of last season. Fruit loss from droppage is

4 percent below the 10 season average. Arizona and California forecasts are carried forward from the

October 1 forecast.

The 2002-03 Florida tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. It does not

include the Robinson and Dancy varieties as in the previous seasons estimates. This program change was

implemented because of the declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by the Florida Citrus

Commission.

Temples: Florida’s Temples are forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season,

unchanged from October but 10 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would equal the freeze

affected 1989-90 crop as the second smallest on record. Average fruit size continues to be the largest in the

10 season series. Fruit per tree is down and droppage is projected to be near average at 10 percent.

K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has

been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have ceased. Bearing acres had declined to

200 and production reached a record low of 30,000 boxes in the 2001-02 season.

Florida Citrus: November temperatures ranged from the upper 30's to the 80's. Rainfall for the month

occurred during a four or five day period during mid-November. Rainfall is slightly above average for the

month. Virtually all of the well cared for groves are in very good to excellent condition. Little new growth is

showing at this time due to the shorter days and cooler nights. The early and midseason fruit are well colored

and need very little degreening to go to fresh markets. Harvesting crews were very active in November once

all of the processors opened. Deliveries at the juice plants were averaging one million boxes of oranges per

day. Fresh fruit packinghouses were very active shipping Navels, other early oranges, white and colored
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 28 NASS, USDA

grapefruit, tangerines, and tangelos. Growers and caretakers have been winterizing their groves. Some heaters

have been placed in the colder locations. A few resets are being dirt banked for cold protection. Some late

season fruit are being sprayed for fresh use. Many harvested groves in the southern areas are being hedged

and topped. Dead trees continue to be pushed out and burned.

California Citrus: Pre-emergent herbicides were applied in some citrus groves. Rain slowed the Navel

orange harvest for a few days in some locations during the middle of the month. Cooler nights and mornings

continued to improve fruit color. Lemons, Satsuma mandarins, Oroblanco grapefruit hybrids, and Chandler

pummelos were picked and hauled to citrus packinghouses.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Pruning, cultivating and spraying continued in orchards and

vineyards. Vine and tree removal and ground preparation for planting replacement was active in most

districts. Table grape harvest continued in a few Red Globe and Crimson Seedless vineyards. Rainfall and

fog slowed the harvest of table grapes. Plastic coverings were placed in some late variety vineyards to protect

clusters from rain damage. Rain hastened the end of the pomegranate harvest, causing defects including rind

cracking. Apple harvesting neared completion in eastern Kern County. Hayward kiwifruit and Hachiya and

Fuyu variety persimmon picking continued. Strawberry harvesting continued in the Central Coast counties. 

In Fresno and Tulare counties, strawberries were picked and sold at roadside stands. The harvest of Zutano,

Susan, and Mexicola Grande avocados progressed in Tulare County.

Pecans: The December 1 forecast for 2002 pecan utilized production is 176 million pounds (in-shell basis),

down 13 percent from the October 1 forecast and 48 percent below last year’s crop. Wet conditions and

tropical storms in the Southern States have combined with the alternate bearing cycle to sharply reduce crop

size. Wet weather from September through November in these States delayed harvest. Improved varieties are

expected to make up 137 million pounds or 78 percent of the total, while the native and seedling varieties

make up the difference. 

The Georgia forecast, at 45.0 million pounds, is 10 percent below the October 1 forecast and 59 percent

below last year’s crop. Most of the decrease is related to the alternate bearing cycle. However, dry earlyseason conditions and wet weather during the fall further reduced production and quality by increasing

diseases and delaying harvest. The Texas production forecast is 40.0 million pounds, 20 percent below the

previous forecast and 47 percent below last year’s production. Unseasonable rains during October and

November reduced harvested production and quality. New Mexico’s forecast, at 36.0 million pounds, is

unchanged from October but down 40 percent from last year. Harvest is just getting underway. Production is

lower due to the alternate bearing cycle as well as wind damage to limbs and nut clusters.

Arizona forecasts a 14.0 million pound pecan crop, down 7 percent from October and 33 percent below last

year. Harvest is just beginning and producers report the crop ‘looks good’. Oklahoma’s forecast of

14.0 million pounds is 22 percent below the October forecast and down 30 percent from last year’s

production. There are reports of reduced production in the tops of trees damaged by previous years ice

storms. The Louisiana forecast of 6.00 million pounds is reduced 33 percent from the October forecast and

down 57 percent from 2001. Many producers have struggled with black rot this year due to the extremely wet

conditions over the last two months. Alabama pecan production, at 7.00 million pounds, is 30 percent below

the October forecast and 53 percent below last year. Wet weather since October caused many nuts to rot.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.9 million tons, 1 percent above the

November forecast and 4 percent above last year. This year’s forecast production is less than 1 percent below

the record high crop of 2000. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 1.03 million acres for sugar and seed

during the 2002 crop year. This is fractionally higher than the previous month but nearly the same as last

year’s final harvested acres. Yield is forecast at 34.9 tons per acre, up 0.3 ton from the November 1 forecast

and 1.3 tons above last year’s estimate.

Early month rain continued to hamper harvest in Louisiana where progress was well behind the 5-year

average. Despite the muddy conditions, harvesting gained momentum after midmonth. Harvest progressed

well in Florida and Hawaii.

Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 8.50 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 2002-03

season, up 6 percent from the previous crop year. Harvested acreage is estimated at 6,200 acres, down

2 percent from the 2001-02 season. Favorable weather conditions, especially in the Kona districts of Hawaii

island benefitted flowering. Coffee harvesting is expected to be spread over a longer period compared to last

season with improved quality and larger bean size. Combined production from the other islands is also
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 29 NASS, USDA

expected to increase. Most of this increase in production will come from Kauai island, which is the only other

island expected to show an increase. Maui, Molokai, and Oahu are all expected to harvest less this season. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 30 NASS, USDA

Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective Yield Surveys were conducted between November 25 and December 1 to

gather information on expected yields as of December 1. The Objective Yield Survey for cotton was

conducted in producing States that usually account for approximately 75 percent of the U.S. production. At

crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field,

another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. 

The Objective Yield Survey for oranges for the December 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which

produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the

number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage

surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct

grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield estimates for cotton and State level

objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with

historical estimates. For cotton, reports from cotton ginners in each State were also considered. For oranges,

reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were used for setting estimates. The

December 1 orange production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from October. Each cotton

State Statistical Office and Florida, for oranges, submit their analyses of the current situation to the

Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the

published December 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. For cotton, a new estimate will

be made in January followed by end-of-season revisions in May. Administrative records are reviewed and

revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a

production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the

last estimate.

For oranges, the December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September’s Citrus

Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season,

including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for

recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root

Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between

the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. 

The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of

the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made

concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming

that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means that

chances are two out of three that the current cotton production forecast will not be above or below the final

estimate by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the

difference will not exceed 3.0 percent. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 orange production

forecast is 11.0 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is

4.3 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not

be above or below the final estimate by more than 11.0 percent or 4.3 percent, excluding freeze seasons. 

Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 18.9 percent or

7.7 percent, excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the December 1 cotton forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have

averaged 214,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast for cotton has been

below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. Changes between the December 1 orange forecast and

the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 596,000 tons (350,000 tons, excluding freezes),

ranging from 1,000 tons to 2.39 million tons (1,000 tons to 752,000 tons, excluding freezes). The

December 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 7 times

and above 8 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts

this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2002 31 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234

Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum,

 Sugar Crops (202) 720-8140

Mark E. Miller - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 10, 2003.

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