RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS
10-YEAR RECORD OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
ANO FINAL ESTIMATE

: 190% CONFIDENCE :
CROP AND : : LEVEL

UNIT : PERCENT: wenneceeeeeeeee QUANTITY :NO. OF YEARS
=PERCENT: QUANT :: : : :BELOW :ABOVE
: SMALL: LARGE:FINAL :FINAL
: MIL MIL
FEED GRAINS 1/ MT 28 4.8 iW: 7 1 4 8 2
CORN FOR GRAIN BU 3.8 6.6 543 242 ~=«-80 538 8 2
SORGHUM FOR : :

GRAIN BU: 4.2 7.3 65 :: 18 2 60 6 4
RICE CHT : 2.6 4.5 6 :: 3 0 6 5 5
SOYBEANS FOR : :

BEANS BU: 3.6 6.3 125 79 ~=«10 120 6 4
COTTON BALE 2/ : 5.5 9.5 950 364 «17”+=«4,073 6

1/ CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1976-86 (1977=100)

PRODUCTION

YEAR: : 2 HAY : : : :
TALL 1/: FEED : AND : FOOD : SUGAR : COTTON : TOBACCO :OIL CROPS
: > GRAINS : FORAGE : > CROPS : : :

1976 =: 92 96 94-107 112 74 12 74

1977 : 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1978 : 102 108 106 93 107 76 106 105
1979 : 113 116 108 108 94 102 80 129
1980 : 101 97 98 VW 97 79 93 99
1981 2117 121 106 144 107 109 108 114
1982 2117 122 109 138 96 85 104 121
1983 : 88 67 100 7 93 55 75 91
1984 2111 116 107 129 95 91 90 106
1985 : 116 133 106 121 97 93 79 7
1986 : 108 122 mW 105 106 70 64 109

1/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS
OF CROPS SHOWN.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-20 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: Production is forecast at 887 million bushels (22.5 million

metric tons), 20 percent less than the record high 1985
crop but 2 percent higher than September 1. Yields are expected to average
65.7 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from September 1 but a bushel less than
in 1985. Harvested area remains at 13.5 million acres (5.46 million hectares),
down 19 percent from last year.

At the end of September, the crop was 68 percent mature in the major
producing States. Harvest, at 37 percent completion, was progressing slightly
ahead of last year. Rains have promoted good growth in Colorado's crop.
Iltinots expects a record high yietd. Kansas stands have developed ahead of
average; harvest was underway and progressing well until rains halted
operations. The Louisiana and Mississippi harvests are nearly complete.
Nebraska also expects record yields; the crop is maturing well ahead of
average. Oklahoma's sorghum crop is in good condition but rains are delaying
harvest. In South Dakota, crop maturity trails average because of September's
cool, wet weather. Harvest is about to start in Texas' High Plains and
remains active in central areas and the Edwards Plateau.

RICE: Rice production is forecast at 130 million hundredweight (5.88 million
metric tons), up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast but down 5 per-

cent from 1985, Production is 7 percent below 1984. This would be the second
smallest production since 1977.

Yield per acre is expected to average a record high 5552 pounds per acre,
up 89 pounds from September 1. This would be 115 pounds higher than the
previous record of 5437 pounds set in 1985. Yield is up 200 pounds from
September 1 in both California and Mississippi. Arkansas registered a 100
pound increase. Record yields are anticipated in California, Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Texas. Arkansas' yield would tie the record set in 1985.

Near the end of September, rice harvest outpaced the average by 17
points. Harvest was 76 percent finished, 12 points above tast year. Texas
producers had finished first crop harvest and were awaiting second crop
harvest. Harvest was nearing the end in Louisiana and Mississippi. In
Arkansas, harvest was 82 percent complete compared with 52 percent normally.
Harvest had just begun in California.

SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at 1.99 billion bushels (54.2 million metric

tons), up 1 percent from the September 1 forecast but 5 percent
below last year. Yield is forecast at 33.3 bushels per acre, up 0.2 of a
bushel from September 1 but 0.8 of a bushel below the record high yield set in
1985. Soybean growing conditions were generally good through most of
September. Ample moisture maintained or improved most yields. Yield
increases from September 1 were recorded in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky,
Mississippi, Ohio, and Virginia. Michigan's crop has been hurt by excessive
moisture causing acreage abandonment and a 3 bushel per acre decline in
yield. South Dakota with a yield of 30 bushels per acre, and Texas with a 23
bushel yield were below the September 1 forecast.

As of September 28, soybean harvest was 8 percent complete compared with 7
for last year and the average of 10 percent. Rains in most of the growing

areas have been delaying harvest progress. lowa had 1 percent of the crop
harvested and was 14 percentage point behind the average.

SOYBEAN REVISIONS - 1985 CROP: The 3985 soybean production is unchanged from
the previous estimate. Review of end of mar-
keting year stock estimates, USDA administrative data, annual crushings,

export data, and additional survey data in some States supported the previous
estimate.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-6 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


Seeding of the 1986 crop trailed average progress throughout the season,
mostly due to wet conditions. The crop was in mostly good condition by the
end of April, except in the Southeast where dry soils held condition to fair.
Stands developed rapidly during May in most areas. By June 1, heading had
advanced to 82 percent in the major producing States and neared completion by
month's end.

Harvest was well underway in the southern States by June 1. By early
July, harvest had progressed to 68 percent completion in the major States,
slightly ahead of 1985 and 20 points ahead of the 5-year average. By early
August, harvest was virtually complete in all States other than the Pacific
Northwest and Montana. Colorado, Michigan, and South Dakota harvests were at
least 90 percent complete.

Kansas harvest was virtually complete by Juty 13, the earliest since
1974. Disease problems, particularly stem rust, were prevalent. Michigan's
yields were reduced by fungal diseases. Oklahoma growers realized better
yields than expected, despite a prolonged harvest.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production for 1986 is estimated at 466 million bushels

(12.7 million metric tons), 4 percent less than a year
ago. Area for harvest as grain is estimated at 14.6 million acres (5.89
million hectares), up 6 percent from 1985. Yields are placed at’ 32.0 bushels
per acre, 3.4 bushels below the record hfgh set fn 1985,

By June 1, seeding had progressed to 95 percent completion in the major
producing States. This was slightly behind average progress. Later in June,
heading had progressed to 33 percent, well behind last season and trailing
average progress. The crop rated mostly good at that time. Mid-duly saw
development catch up to average progress. Harvest had started in Minnesota
and South Dakota. ains slowed harvests in Minnesota and the Dakota's during
August. By month's end, harvest progress was ahead of 1985 but lagged average
by 8 points.

Early seeded wheat in Montana did well; grasshoppers and aphids hurt Tater
seeded acreages. Disease problems hurt Minnesota and the Dakotas' yield
prospects greatly.

DURUM WHEAT: Production for 1986 is estimated at 93.0 million bushels (2.53
million metric tons) off 17 percent from 1985. Harvested area
is placed at 2.81 million acres (1.14 million hectares), 9 percent less than a
year ago. Average yield of 33.1 bushels per acre is 3.3 bushels lower than
the record high set in 1985. Arizona's yield is up from Tast year. Montana's

yield rebounded from 1985's drought-reduced levels. All other States' yields
are below 1985.

Adequate to surplus moisture supplies existed throughout the growing
season in most of North Dakota's durum areas. Pre-harvest yield expectations
have been shattered by persistent disease problems that the moist conditions
allowed to develop.

RYE: Production for 1986 is estimated at 17.9 million bushels (454 thousand

metric tons), down 13 percent from 1985. Harvested area totaled 660
thousand acres (267 thousand hectares), off 8 percent from last year. Yields
averaged 27.1 bushels per acre, 1.7 bushels less than 1985. Only Kentucky and
Wisconsin had higher average yields than in 1985.

Drought hurt the Georgia crop. North Dakota's crop wintered well.
Adequate soil moisture supplies throughout the growing season brought good
yields prospects that were dashed by diseases. Harvest was virtually complete
by the end of August. South Dakota's crop remained in good condition through
harvest; the crop ripened slightly ahead of average.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-2 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA



The Idaho crop continues to progress well. Harvest has just gotten
underway in most areas.

Flooding in Michigan submerged some beets. Some will not be harvested and
damaged patches in low areas of other fields will reduce overall yields.
Harvest is usually underway by October 1 but is not expected to begin until at
least mid-month.

Nebraska harvest was scheduled to start in late September but was slowed
by rain and wet fietds. Digging in Wyoming was ahead of average with early
digging progressing rapidly. Lower tonnage and sugar content are expected on
early beets, Some disease and hail damage was also noted.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 30.3

million tons (27.4 million metric tons), unchanged from the
September 1 forecast but 7 percent above the 1985 crop. Average yield is
forecast at 37.8 tons per acre, 1.2 tons above a year ago. Area for harvest,
at 801 thousand acres (324 thousand hectares), is 4 percent above 1985.

Florida's sugarcane crop is in good to very good condition. Cutting for
seed and planting was very active during September. Harvest of cane for sugar
is expected to get underway by mid-October.

Hawaii's weather for most of September was favorable for cane growth and
the development of sugar. Sunshine was abundant. Temperatures climbed to the
high 80's and Tow 90's but adequate irrigation prevented crop stress. Heavy
rain temporarily slowed operations on Hawaii Island during the last week of
September.

In Louisiana, planting was 92 percent complete on September 28, well ahead
of the 5-year average of 65 percent. Preparations for harvest were underway.

The Texas crop benefited from numerous showers during September. Quality
appears better than a year ago. Harvest is expected to begin by mid-October,

HOPS: Production is estimated at 49.2 million pounds (22.3 thousand metric
tons), up 10 percent from September 7 but 1 percent less than 1985.

Yields were above the September 1 forecast in all States. The estimated
U.S. average yield per acre is 1967 pounds and compares with 1769 pounds in
1985. The 25.0 thousand acres (10.1 thousand hectares) for harvest is
unchanged from September 1 but 11 percent below 1985. Harvest was complete by
ctober 1.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: The pasture and range feed condition on

October 1 for the 48 contiguous States was
83 percent, 7 points above October 1, 1985 and 10 points above the 1975-84
average for the date. Conditions improved during September in 33 States,
declined in 12 States and were unchanged in 3 States.

Rainfall was received over much of the country throughout September and it
improved pasture and range feed conditions in most States. In the eastern and
southern States from Pennsylvania to Louisiana, the conditions improved in
some States while declining in others. Most States in this region are still
in the very poor or poor to fair range. Conditions are generally in the good
to excellent range in all the remaining States, except Colorado, Nevada,
Oregon, and Washington. These States are in the poor to fair range. The
States showing the largest improvement from September 1 are Kentucky,
Missouri, Texas, and Virginia, each up 12 points. Florida and Louisiana
showed the largest decline, both down 10 points.

APPLES: The final forecast of the 1986 U.S. apple crop places production at

7.74 billion pounds (3.51 million metric tons), down 1 percent from
the August 1 forecast of 7.85 billion pounds (3.56 million metric tons) and 3
percent less than last year's production.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-11 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT: ACREAGE

:

’

:

’

%

:

:

3
KANS ’ 13,300 12,400 11,500 11,400 10,200
KY ’ 670 430 440 310 270
LA 3 400 250 240 210 210
4D % VAT 140 160 133 140
MICH : 900 770 750 750 680
MINN ‘ 400 350 180 280 130
MISS : 770 380 250 300 200
wo 3 2,350 1,500 1,050 1,280 570
MONT 3 2,700 2,460 2,150 1,400 2,000
NEBR : 3,200 2,600 2,300 2,300 2,000
NEV : 9 10 10 9 9
NJ : 48 45 40 37 30
N MEX : 730 730 740 570 460
NY z 180 155 165 145 155
ne t 700 800 525 760 460
N DAK 3 620 750 520 450 480
OHIO 2 1,240 1,000 1,150 950 1,050
OKLA : 7,700 7,800 7,400 5,500 5,200
OREG 3 1,130 1,030 970 960 900
PA : 230 220 230 210 220
sc t 400 460 325 430 300
S DAK : 2,000 1,850 1,900 1,520 1,780
TENN 2 670 340 430 250 325
TEX t 7,400 8,100 8,100 5,850 4,800
UTAH t 230 230 235 220 225
vA 3 320 340 220 285 170
WASH : 2,600 2,550 2,250 2,400 2,100
WeVA 3 12 10 W 8 9
Wis : 170 150 140 140 130
WYO 3 300 290 320 230 250
us 3 63,419 57,752 53,939 47,953 43,115

1/ AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.
2/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1985 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-14 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA




VARIETAL IND ¢ + IND: : + IND
TYPES 1985 1 1986 :1985 1/: 1986 : 1984 + t985 1/2 1986
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
OL :
MINN : 196 126 880 297,500 172,480
NDAK 1,820 1,060 1,080 2,522,000 1,965,600
SDAK oo: 497 376 1,220 631,800 606,340
TEX : 95 38 1,300 48,100 123,500
us : 2,608 1,600 1,100 3,499,400 2,867,920
NON-OIL =:
MINN : 23 24 1,100 15,600 25,300
NDAK Oo: 210 216 1,220 227,850 256,200
S DAK + 3 4 1,200 1,680 33600
us : 236 244 1,208 245,130 285,100
ALL +
MINN t 219 150 903 1,350 313,100 197,780 202,500
N DAK ¢ 2,030 1,276 1,094 1,300 2,749,850 2,221,800 1,658,800
S DAK: 500 380 1,220 1,250 633,480 609,940 475,000
TEX : 95 38 1,300 1,500 48,100 123,500 57,000
us 2,844 1,844 1,109 1,298 3,744,530 3,153,020 2,393,300
1/ REVISED. . 7
AREA PLANTED, SUNFLOWER 1/ 1985
VARIETAL TYPE
STATE
NON-OTL ALL
1,000 ACRES
MINN : 220 25 245
N DAK : 1,970 220 2,190
S DAK : 517 3 520
TEX : 100 100
us : 2,807 248 3,055
7 REVISED. °
PEANUTS FOR NUTS
eee AREA HARVESTED: : PRODUCTION 1/
STATE — tw ne ew en ee een en en ne nen en en nen een nee en cen
WWD: : + IND

1985 : 1986 : 1985 : 1986 : 1984 :

: 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
ALA t 200.0 218.0 2,950 2,000 648,550 590,000 436,000
FLA 2 72.0 83.0 3,000 2,700 246,400 216,000 224,100
GA : 593.0 650.0 3,240 2,150 2,160,000 1,921,320 1,397,500
N MEX 2/ 2 12.4 12.0 2,580 2,500 32,190 31,992 30,000
NC 3 154.0 143.0 2,935 2,900 449,500 451,990 414,700
OKLA : 83.0 95.0 2,060 2,000 189,000 170,980 190,000
sc 2 12.0 12.0 2,850 2,000 39,150 34,200 24,000
TEX 3 245.0 220.0 1,725 1,800 371,295 422,625 396,000
VA 3 96.0 87.0 2,955 2,950 269,660 283,680 256,650
us 1,467.4 1,520.0 2,610 2,216 4,405,745 4,122,787 3,368, 950

i/ ESTIMATES COMPRISED OF QUOTA AND NON- QUOTA PEANUTS.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-24 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

ae

2

Pt

us

Lee

PEANUTS: Production is forecast at 3.37 billion pounds (1.53 million metric

tons), 18 percent below last year and 3 percent below the September
1 forecast. Area for harvest totals 1.52 million acres (615 thousand
hectares), up 4 percent from last year and 2 percent from the September 1
total. Yield is expected to average 2216 pounds per acre, down 594 pounds
from last year and down 115 pounds from September 1.

Production in the Southeast (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.08 billion pounds, down 25 percent from last
year and 7 percent from the September 1 forecast. However, harvested area at
963 thousand acres represents a 10 percent increase from the 1985 crop.
Yields in the 4-State region are expected to average 2162 pounds, down 987
pounds from last year. Harvest is active in the region, but running behind
ast year because of late plantings and also the decision of some growers to
delay harvest with the expectation of further crop development and increased
yields.

The Virginia-North Carolina crop is expected to total 677 million pounds,
off 9 percent from last year and unchanged from September 1. Cool weather in
early September delayed maturity and, as a result, harvest is behind schedule.

The Southwest crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) is forecast at 616
million pounds, 2 percent tess than produced in 1985 but up 10 percent from
the September 1 forecast. Area for harvest in the .3-State region is set at
327 thousand acres, down 4 percent from 1985 but up 10 percent from the
September 1 forecast. Yield is expected to average 1884 pounds, up 46 pounds
from last year. Harvest is well underway in Texas but is only 1 percent
complete in Oklahoma due to heavy rains during the month.

SUNFLOWER: Production of all sunflower is forecast at 2.39 billion pounds

{1.09 million metric tons), down 24 percent from 1985 and 36 per-
cent below 1984. Area for harvest, at 1.84 million acres (746 thousand
hectares), is down 35 percent from a year ago. Prospective yield, at 1298
pounds per acre, is 189 pounds above last year. Yield is forecast at 1350
pounds in Minnesota, 1300 pounds in North Dakota, 1250 pounds in South Dakota,
and 1500 pounds in Texas. All 4 States are forecasting improved yields from a
year earlier,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-7 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELO PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE “PRODUCTION —

CORN FOR GRAIN BU: 118.0 119

+2 8,865,006 8,268,141 8,220,201
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN ©) |: 66-7 65.7 1,322,577 873,374 B87, 469
CWT 1/: 5,437 5,852 136,042 127,461 129,537
Soveeans FOR :
BEANS 2/ BU: 34.1 33.3 2,098,531 1,979,773 1,991,763
PEANUTS FOR NUTS LB 2 2,810 24216 4,122,787 3,466,350 3,368,950
SUNFLOWER 2/ 21,109 1,298 =—-3, 153,020 2}393,300
ALL COTTON BALE 1/: "630 539 13,432.2 10,506.4 ” 10,005.9
UPLAND “Us: 628 535 13,277.17 10,312.4 9,812.4
AMER-PIMA "Uf: 891 926 185.1 194.0 193.5
COTTONSEED TON : 5,279 4,152 3,953
ALL HAY * 3 2.46 2.59 148,959 3/ 153,408 188,009
ALFALFA “os 3.32 3.61 85,291 3/ 92,243 94,601
ALL OTHER so 1.83 3.83 63,668 «= -3/ 61, 165 63,408
ORY EDIBLE BEANS CWT 1/: 1,498 1,571 22,268 25,697 22,321
ORY EDIBLE PEAS 4/" 1/ : 1,769 3,308
AUSTRIAN WINTER A
PEAS 4/ "Ue 1,429 450
LENTILS 4/ "Ve 1,203 2,009
TOBACCO (8) 6: 2,196 = 7,978 =, 577,220 1,278,156 1,215, 181
SUGARBEETS TON : 20.5 20.6 22,636 25,438 25,03
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED * 36.6 37.8 28,213 30,255 30,255
HOPS LB 1,769 1,967 49,713 44,880 49,187
PASTURE AND
RANGE FEED 5/ = PCT 76 83
APPLES, COM*L LB 7,949,000 3/ 7,845,000 7,738,000
GRAPES TON 5,604.7 4,915.5 4,907.5
SWEET CHERRIES 6/ * 132.5 139.6
TART CHERRIES 6/ LB 286,200 229,100
ORIED PRUNES
(CALIF) TON 139.0 95.0 95.0
PRUNES AND PLUMS
(EXCL CALIF) " 50.7 46.5 46.5
PECANS us 244,400 209,300 216,100
FILBERTS TON 24.6 7 47.3 17.3
CITRUS FRUITS 8/ 1985-86 1986-87 1986-87
ORANGES BOX 176,410 207,050
LEMONS « 18,350 24,700

1/ YIELO IN POUNDS. 2/ 1985 REVISED. 3/ AUG 1, 1986. 4/ ESTIMATES

REINSTATED IN 1986. 5/ PASTURE AND RANGE FEEO CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF

MONTH, THE 1975-84 AVERAGE IS 73 PERCENT. 6/ CARRIED FORWARD FROM CHERRY

UTILIZATION REPORT RELEASED OCT 3, 1986. 7/ MID-AUGUST FORECAST PUBLISHED IN

"FILBERT PRODUCTION" RELEASED AUGUST 25, 1986. 8/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE

Eee THe FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE
IN Re

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

INDICATED
1986 1/

: “TNDICATED
1985 1986 1/

POTATOES
WINTER 2/ CWT 204 243 2,691 2,991
SPRING . 264 261 22,986 19,763
SUMMER . 244 218 27,794 21,972
FALL . 308 . 353,638
TOTAL " 299 407,109
PEACHES LB: 2,148,300 2,277,400
PEARS : 746.9 710.5
APRICOTS : 131.5 69.1
NECTARINES (CALIF) 211.0 195.0
PLUMS (CALIF) 166.5 130.0
OLIVES (CALIF) 96.0 100.0
PISTACHIO NUTS (eaLFyLe 27,100 70,000
ALMONDS (CALIF 465,000 265,000
WALNUTS (CALIF TON 219.0 190.0

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1986 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-5 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA



PECANS

PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE

100,000
1,500
4,000

24,000
1,830
2,000
3,600

20,000

169,230

4,000
400
2,800
20,000
3,500
1,500
1,070
23,000
1,900
5,000
63,170

13,000
1,500
5,000

120,000
5,000
5,500

24,000
2,900

25,000
5,500

25,000

232,400

1/ BUDDED,GRAFTED,OR TOPWORKED VARIETIES.

1,000 POUNDS

9,600
1,000
1,600

74,000
2,000
3,500

29,000

400
1,500
900

29,000

152,500

6,400
700
1,200
9,000
13,000
3,000
600
8,500
500
49,000
91,900

16,000
1,700
2,800

83,000
15,000
6,500
29,000
1,000
10,000
1,400
78,000
244,400

1,800
2,000
2,400
28,000
153,700

3,000
600
2,000
13,000
12,500
2,500
1,200
14,000
1,600
12,000
62,400

15,000
1,600
5,000

85,000

15,000
7,500

24,000
3,000

16,000
4,000

40,000

216,100

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

PAPAYAS - HAWAII

AREA FRESH PRODUCTION

HARVESTED

TOTAL IN CROP
FORECAST
1986

1,000 POUNDS

AUG 3,660 3,975 2,625 2,340 3,989 3,430

SEP 35555 3,970 2,345 2,380 35722 3,150

oct 33515 3410 43594 3,200

NOV 33615 23385 33383 33800
3,690

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA

A-35


CORN FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED

2 lf IND
1984: 1985 : 1986

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 325 300 75.0 55.0 25,025 24,375 16,500
ARIZ 1/ : 21 17 105.0 115.0 3,250 2,205 1,955
ARK V/ 3 73 85 108.0 112.0 4,655 7,884 9,520
CALIF : 320 270 145.0 145.0 51,000 46,400 39,150
COLO : 745 675 139.0 135.0 91,120 103,555 91,125
CONN 2/ 2

DEL 3 175 170 109.0 70.0 16,950 19,075 11,900
FLA V/ z 190 180 65.0 60.0 13,650 12,350 10,800
GA 2 975 730 84.0 60.0 80,770 81,900 43,800
IDAHO 1/ : _ 80 55 125.0 130.0 8,850 10,000 7,150
TLL t 11,370 10,300 135.0 138.0 1,247,160 1,534,950 1,421,400
IND : 6,150 5,850 123.0 127.0 705,510 756,450 742,950
1OWA 3 13,550 12,000 126.0 135.0 1,444,800 1,707,300 1,620,000
KANS t 1,080 1,250 130.0 132.0 119,375 140,400 165,000
KY : 1,560 1,570 102.0 88.0 146,000 159,120 138,160
LA V7 : 205 430 114.0 120.0 9,430 23,370 51,600
MAINE 2/ :

MD : 640 610 110.0 68.0 69,620 70,400 41,480
MASS 2/ :

MICH 3 2,730 2,400 105.0 102.0 220,080 286,650 244,800
MINN 3 6,300 5,700 115.0 120.0 689,080 724,500 684,000
Miss 1/ : 115 170 68.0 78.0 4,900 7,820 13,260
MO 3 2,480 2,400 110.0 115.0 154,400 272,800 276,000
MONT 1/ WwW 10 95.0 105.0 1,380 1,045 1,050
NEBR y 2 7,450 6,850 128.0 130.0 806,200 953,600 890,500
NH 2 3

NJ / : 114 105 110.0 95.0 11,663 12,540 9,975
N MEX 1/ 3 65 50 155.0 155.0 9,450 10,075 7,750
NY 3 720 640 95.0 98.0 60,970 68,400 62,720
NC 3 1,625 1,360 79.0 67.0 145,800 128,375 91,120
N DAK 3 560 600 72.0 80.0 41,580 40,320 48,000
OHIO : 4,030 3,700 127.0 128.0 460,200 511,810 473,600
OKLA 1/ : 58 50 106.0 110.0 5,250 6,148 5,500
OREG 1/ : 40 35 165.0 175.0 6,678 6,600 6,125
PA ) t 1,380 1,340 110.0 104.0 148,500 151,800 139,360
Rt 2 2

sc : 520 480 88.0 43.0 34,866 45,760 20,640
S DAK 3 3,000 2,700 84.0 86.0 186,260 252,000 232,200
TENN t 810 770 98.0 77.0 65,550 79,380 59,290
TEX 3 1,490 1,250 105.0 110.0 144,150 156,450 137,500
UTAH My, z 16 16 115.0 115.0 1,888 1,840 1,840
VT 2 3

VA H 550 510 99.0 50.0 56,160 54,450 25,500
WASH 1/ : 135 120 160.0 150.0 23,250 21,600 18,000
WVA 1/7 t 73 75 105.0 95.0 8,100 7,665 7,125
Wis 3 3,350 3,100 107.0 112.0 344,500 358,450 347,200
WYO / 3 53 48 98.0 97.0 6,000 5,194 4,656
us : 75,134 68,971 118 119.2 7,674,020 8,865,006 8,220,201

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-21 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


ALL OTHER HAY

3 IND 3 IND ¢ IND

: 1985 1986 : 1985 1986 : 1984 1986

: 1,000 ACRES TONS
ALA & 700 500 2.20 1.50 1,360 750
ARIZ 1/ 2 22 22 3.60 4.50 100 99
ARK z 950 920 1.80 1.70 1,471 1,564
CALIF Hy 540 600 2.40 2.50 1,224 1,500
COLO 3 625 600 1.50 1.60 924 960
CONN 1/ 3 66 69 1.85 2.00 150 138
DEL 1/ 3 15 16 2.10 1,90 30 30
FLA 1/ 3 240 240 2.60 2.60 696 624
GA : 495 420 2.50 1.50 1,320 630
IDAHO : 300 320 1.70 2.00 805 640
TLL z 360 470 2.20 2.30 840 1,081
IND : 385 390 2.30 2.30 790 897
1OWA z 600 750 2.20 2.60 1,250 1,950
KANS : 1,700 1,600 1.80 1.90 2,635 3,040
KY 2 1,600 1,600 2.00 1.80 2,610 2,880
LA Hy 305 285 2.30 2.60 787 741
MAINE 1/ 3 196 196 1.80 1.85 340 363
MD 3 155 162 2.35 1.90 338 308
MASS 1/ 3 91 95 2.10 2.40 216 228
MICH z 350 370 1.90 2.30 665 851
MINN 3 900 1,000 2.20 2.30 1,980 2,300
MISS H 650 550 2.00 2.00 1,292 100
MO : 2,950 3,080 1.75 1.65 5,100 5,082
MONT 2 1,000 950 1.05 1.50 1,365 1,425
NEBR : 1,900 1,850 1.05 1.20 2,415 2,220
NEV 2 260 310 1.30 1.40 406 434
NH 1/ : 68 69 2.15 2.10 148 145
NJ / 3 75 17 2.20 2.15 150 166
N MEX 1/ : 80 80 1.70 1.70 162 136
NY : 1,300 1,320 2.05 2.10 2,640 2,772
NC 3 370 380 1.70 1.35 629 513
N DAK 3 1,450 1,350 1.15 1.60 1,755 2,160
OH10 3 750 750 2.40 2.30 1,575 1,725
OKLA 3 1,700 1,550 1.90 1.80 2,400 2,790
OREG 2 630 680 1.85 2.00 1,287 1,360
PA : 1,150 1,160 2.20 2.30 2,394 2,668
RI / 3 7 6 1.85 2.00 15 12
sc : 205 200 2.40 1.50 529 300
S DAK : 1,600 1,900 1.00 1.60 2,379 3,040
TENN : 1,500 1,280 1.80 1.10 2,228 1,408
TEX 3 3,310 3,100 2.20 2.10 4,560 6,510
UTAH 1/ : 145 155 2.00 2.00 280 310
VT V/ 3 325 335 2.00 2.00 650 670
vA 3 920 970 1.50 1.10 1,552 1,067
WASH 3 350 340 2.40 2.70 878 918
WeVA 3 500 480 1.80 1.20 848 576
Wis 3 500 530 2.40 2.70 1,430 1,431
WYO 3 590 640 1.25 1.40 945 896

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-27 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

AREA HARVESTED t YIELD PRODUCTION

BUSHELS

1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 27.0 20.0 28,770 27,810 12,600
ARK : 26.5 19.0 101,400 98,050 65,550
DEL 2/  : 30.0 27.0 6,000 7,200 6,210
FLA 2/  ¢ 26.0 23.0 7,800 5,980 3,910
GA : 24.0 16.0 40,000 37,200 13,600
ILL : 9,000 8,950 42.5 42.0 284,130 382,500 375,900
IND : 4,460 4,250 41.5 39,0 150,075 185,090 165,750
1OWA : 8,150 8,600 38.0 40.0 264,600 309,700 344,000
KANS : 1,410 1,760 31.0 31.0 27,825 43,710 54,560
KY : 1,230 1,070 34.0 30.0 42,340 41,820 32,100
LA : 2,100 1,900 21.0 23.0 66,825 44,100 43,700
MD : 400 380 932.0 26.0 12,325 12,800 9,880
MICH : 1,080 960 32.0 30.0 32,130 34,560 28,800
MINN : 5,000 4,850 32.0 36.0 172,920 160,000 174,600
MISS : 2,620 2,500 27.0 18.0 76,800 70,740 45,000
MO : 5,230 5,600 34.5 34.0 108,650 180,435 190,400
NEBR : 2,360 2,450 36.0 37.0 66,300 84,960 90,650
NJ 2/3 129 418 34.0 26.0 4,123 4,386 3,068
nc : 1,700 1,600 23.0 23.0 46,540 39,100 36,800
N DAK 2/° 490 490 26.0290 17,020 12,740 14,210
OHIO : 3,870 3,650 41.5 41,0 137,605 160,605 149,650
OKLA 2/  : 190 230 23.0 -21.0 4,180 4,370 4,830
PA 2/ 170 180 35.0 30.0 5,950 5,950 5,400
sc 3 1,230 900 20.0 16.0 29,800 24,600 14,400
S DAK : 1,270 1,340 32.0 30.0 31,280 40,640 40,200
TENN : 1,460 1,500 31.0 24.0 48,100 45,260 36,000
TEX : 290 210 «25.0 23.0 11,890 7,250 4,830
vA : 695 635 25.0 23.0 «21,535 «17,375 14,605
wis 2/3 300 320 32.0 33.0 13,950 9,600 10,560
us : 61,584 = 59,773 34,1 33.3 1,860,863 2,098,531 1,991,763
1/ REVISED.

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AREA PLANTED, SOYBEANS 1/

1,000 ACRES
ALA : 1,080

1,000 ACRES

5,300
ARK : 3,750 2,400
DEL : 245 130
FLA : 260 1,800
GA : 1,800 500
ILL : 9,100 3,900
IND : 4,500 210
IOWA : 8,200 178
KANS : 1,500 1,290
KY : 1,260 1,280
LA : 2,250 1,500
Mo : 420 320
MICH : 1,100 720
MINN : 5,100 350

2,700

1/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 2986 A-23 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


OATS: Production of oats in 1986 is estimated at 384 million bushels (5.57

million metric tons), 26 percent below the 19%5 crop and the smallest
oat crop since 1876. The area harvested, at 6.99 million acres (2.83 million
hectares), is down 15 percent from last year and the smallest amount since
records began in 1866. The yield for grain averaged 54.9 bushels per acre,
down 8.8 bushels from last year's record high yield of 63.7 bushels.

Seeded area totaled 14.7 million acres (5.95 million hectares) in 1986, up
11 percent from the 1985 planted acres. Oats was used as a cover crop on the
Government reserve acres which accounted for the increase in planted acres.
Acres abandoned and used for purposes other than grain accounted for
percent of the total acreage in 1986 compared with 38 percent in 1985

Planting of the oat crop in the major producing north-central States was
completed on schedule. Good moisture supplies provided an optimistic outlook
for the crop early in the season, but this gave way to disappointment as crop
diseases also enjoyed these warm, moist conditions. The full extent of
disease losses was not realized until harvest, when yields turned out lower
than expected and test weights were light. Rain also delayed harvest in this
area. Yields were down substantially from last year's record high levels.
Minnesota's yield, at 47 bushels, was down 23 bushels; lowa--60 bushels--down
16; and South Dakota--40 bushels--down 16. In the southeastern States the dry
weather early in the summer hurt the oat crop and their yields are all below
Tast year.

BARLEY: Barley production in 1986 is estimated at a record high 600 million

bushels (13.1 million metric tons), 1 percent more than last year's
crop. Average yield per acre is 50.0 bushels, down from last year's yield of
51.0 bushels,

The area harvested for grain in 1986 totals 12.0 million acres (4.85
million hectares), up 3 percent from last year and the largest harvested acres
since 1962. The increase in harvested acres from 1985 more than offset the
lower yields,

Seeding of barley in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Montana got off to a good
start early in the season but then was delayed by rain for about three weeks.
Good weather finally moved in and allowed seeding to be completed slightly
ahead of normal. Adequate to surplus moisture conditions existed throughout
the growing season and all signs pointed to a good crop. Unfortunately, these
conditions also provided ideal conditions for disease development and the
yields did not end up as good as expected. Harvest was hampered by rain and
high humidity and harvest was completed slightly later than normal. In
Washington, dry weather in the east central counties during the season lowered
yield prospects. The counties on the eastern border received more rainfall,
and average or above average yields were realized. [In Idaho, rain stowed
harvest but a good crop was produced. Montana's crop was almost three times
as large as last year's drought-stricken crop; harvested acreage was up 45
percent from last year and yield more than doubled.

ALL WHEAT: Production for 1986 is estimated at 2.08 billion bushels (56.5 mil-

lion metric tons), down 14 percent from the 1985 production level.
Area for grain harvest is estimated at 60.5 million acres (24.5 miltion
hectares), down 7 percent from Ttast year. Yields averaged 34.3 bushels per
acre, 3.2 bushels less than 1985 and the lowest since 1980.

WINTER WHEAT: Production for 1986 is estimated at 1.52 billion bushels (41.3

million metric tons), down 17 percent from 1985 to the lowest
level in 8 years. Yields averaged 35.2 bushels per acre, 2.9 bushels less
than 1985. Harvested area totaled 43.1 million acres (17.4 million hectares),
down 10 percent from last year.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-1 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


RYE

AREA PLANTED 1/

1984

1985

AREA HARVESTED

COLO 17.0
DEL 31.0
GA 22.0
TLL 28.0
IND 28.0
IOWA 34.0
KANS 24.0
KY 30.0
MD 32.0
MICH 28.0
MINN 38.0
MO 25.0
NEBR 24.0
NJ 29.0
NY 2 33.0
NC > 22.0
N DAK i: 36.0
OHIO > 35.0
OKLA : 22.0
OREG : 35.0
PA : 34.0
sc : 21.0
S DAK: 40.0
TEX : 16.0
VA : 27.0
WIS : 27.0
us 3 33.1

BUSHELS
22.0

37.0
19.0
37.0
20.0
26.0
26.0
28.8

28.0

27.1

1986 1984 1985 1986
1,000 ACRES
15 1 2 2
30 4 3 4
425 80 90 85
45 11 8 7
35 12 ” 10
20 5 6 4
64 13 12 10
46 3 2 1
46 7 6 g
145 21 21 23
100 175 110 50
20 3 3 3
140 58 54 45
58 9 10 10
105 13 12 13
160 25 35 35
125 150 80 115
40 5 4 5

7 44 42
124 105 108
1,760 2,070 1,785
308 256 210
336 308 280
170 216 120
312 300 210
90 52 28
224 198 261
588 651 713
6,650 3,300 1,050
75 81 60
1,392 1,242 1,035
261 320 290
429 420 416
550 665 595
5,400 2,640 3,680
75 172 175
704 828 840
140 1 wi
578 740 630
546 532 391
10,800 4,440 4,140
240 400 190
378 312 364
216 234 168
32,463 20,637 17,892

1/ AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986

A-18

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


BARLEY: ACREAGE

AREA PLANTED 1/

1984 : 1985 3 ! 986

z 1,000 ACRES
ARIZ : 55 67 32 53
CALIF 540 500 470 460
COLO : 350 360 390 325
DEL : 55 63 55 50
IDAHO 3 1,370 1,280 1,140 1,340
KANS : 180 240 350 155
KY 2 40 32 25 30
MD : 108 103 90 95
MICH 3 35 39 60 34
MINN 3 1,050 1,200 1,200 950
MONT 2 2,320 2,350 2,400 2,110
NEBR : 88 145 150 78
NEV 3 40 40 40 37
NJ 2 21 21 29 15
N MEX : 25 18 22 20
nc 3 70 78 53 64
N DAK : 2,950 3,500 3,600 2,900
OKLA 3 70 70 50 50
OREG 290 360 375 280
PA 3 75 75 70 70
sc 3 34 36 24 30
S DAK : 610 780 900 595
TEX 3 60 70 70 40
UTAH : 170 172 165 159
VA 2 120 130 90 96
WASH 3 1,000 1,200 920 980
WVA 2/: 6 5
Wis : 55 57 95 50
WYO 3 170 170 168 160
us 2 11,957 13,156 13,033 ite 231

1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALLe
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1984 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-10 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA


APPLES, COMMERCIAL 1/

MILLION POUNDS

ARK 3/ 16.0 10.0
CALIF 620.0 500.0
COLO 110.0 18.0
CONN 42.0 43.0
DEL 3/ 19.0 21.0
GA 3/ 20.0 30.0
IDAHO 131.0 110.0
flue 106.0 92.0
IND 75.0 33.0
1OWA 3/ 13.5 6.5
KANS 3/ 15.0 6.5
KY 3/ 17.0 5.0
MAINE 85.0 83.0
MD 80.0 85.0
MASS 89.0 95.0
MICH 1,100.0 650.0
MINN 3/ 23.0 17.0
MO 62.0 32.0
NH 56.0 52.0
NJ 105.0 100.0
N MEX 3/ 10.0 8.0
NY 1,120.0 950.0
NC 275.0 100.0
OHIO 145.0 90.0
OREG 160.0 115.0
PA 585.0 610.0
R1 4.0 5.0
sc 3/ 16.0 30.0
TENN 3/ 8.5 6.0
UTAH 3/ 57.0 40.0
VT 49.0 48.0
VA 395.0 510.0
WASH 2,050.0 2,950.0
WVA 230.0 230.0
wis 60.0 57.0
us 7,949.0 7,738.0

1/_ IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES.
2/ tNCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1984-14.9,1985-87.7.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-33 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


: IND 3 : IND

1985 : 1986 : 1985 : 1986 1984 : 1985 : 1986
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
:

CALIF 2/ t 200
IDAHO 3 3.1 2.5 4,630 2,000 5,425 5,053 5,000
OREG z 5.5 5.1 1,670 6,958 8,195 8,517
WASH 19.5 7 2,050 43,584 36,465 35,670
us 1,967 56,167 49,713 49,187

1/ !NCLUDES HOPS LOST BY FIRE(POUNDS): WASH 1984-10,000, 1985-40,000.
2/ 1985 AND 1986 DATA COMBINED WITH WASHINGTON TO AVOID DISCLOSURE
OF INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONS.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION Vv

AVERAGE 2 1985 1986 3 AVERAGE
1975-84 : 1975-84

PERCENT

PERCENT :

ALA 71 7 60 NEV 87 66 72
ARIZ 75 W 86 NH 85 86 94
ARK : 67 74 81 en a 72 77 78
CALIF =: 78 77 89 2 N MEX 7 87 100
COLO 2 73 84 76 zt NY 83 75 89
CONN t 76 gt 90 zt NC : 73 75 64
DEL : 73 79 49 rt oN DAK : 67 68 88
FLA 82 85 76 3: OHIO 3 82 65 80
GA + 66 70 57 2 66 61 90
IDAHO: 86 71 87 87 16 74
TLE : 74 82 85 77 67 71
IND 3 79 79 80 84 97 100
1OWA 2 76 79 92 3 65 - 70 60
KANS 2 69 94 87 2 71 57 94
KY 3 78 84 77 : 73 81 79
LA 3 74 81 78 3 62 66 83
MAINE =: 82 79 91 5 81 80 91
MD 2 71 67 57 ' B4 81 90
MASS t 80 89 92 t 76 cal 81
MICH : 81 87 90 : 82 61 76
MINN : 75 85 90 3 79 64 71
MISS $ 73 78 66 : 81 88 86
Mo 3 68 87 84 2 83 49 91
MONT s 76 54 82 3

NEBR : 73 82 89 73 76 83

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR 10 FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64; SEVERE
DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

crop PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-30 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(sETRIC UNITS)

© TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN : 7.41 7.48 225,181,520 210,020,460 208,802,720
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 9: 4.19 4,12 28,260,610 22,184,720 22,542,750
RICE : 6.09 6.22 6,170,760 5,781,530 5,875,700
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/: 2.29 2.24 57,112,650 53,880,590 54,206,910
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 3.15 2.48 1,870,050 1,572,300 1,528,120
SUNFLOWER 1/ 21.24 1.45 1,430, 180 1,085,580
ALL COTTON : 0.71 © 0.60 2,924; 500 2,287,490 2,178,520

UPLAND : 0.70 0.60 2,890,730 2,245,250 2,136,390

AMER -PIMA 1.00 1.04 2770 42,240 42,130
COTTONSEED : 4,789,030 3,766,630 3,586,100
ALL HAY : 5.5] 5.82 135,133,330 2/ 139,169,390 143,343,350

ALFALFA : 7.45 8.10 77,374,690 2/ 83,681,440 85,820,580

ALL OTHER : $.09 © 4.09 57,758,640 2/ 55,487,950 57,522,770
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 1.68 ©1476 1,010,050 1,165,590 1,012,460
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 3/ = 1.98 150,050
AUSTRIAN WINTER :

PEAS 3/ : 3.60 20,410
LENTILS 3/ 3 1.35 91,130
TOBACCO : 2.46 2.22 685,470 552,540 551,190
SUGARBEETS : 46.03 46.21 20,535,030 23,076,970 22,710,460
SUGARCANE FOR :

SUGAR AND SEED : 82.14 84.63 25,594,400 27,446,870 27,446,870
HOPS : 1.98 2.20 22,550 20,360 22,310
APPLES, COM'L : 3,605,590 2/ 3,558,410 3,509,880
GRAPES : 5,084,500 45459,270 4,452,010
SWEET CHERRIES 4/ 120,200 126,640
TART CHARRIES 4/ : 129,820 103,920
ORIEO PRUNES (CALIF) = 126,100 86,180 86,180
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) : 45,990 42,180 42,180
PECANS : 110,860 94,940 98,020
FILBERTS : 22,320 5/ 15,690 15,690
CITRUS FRUITS 6/ : 1985-86 1986-87 1986-87

ORANGES : 6,814,770 7,721, 950

LEMONS. 632,310

REVISED. 2/ AUG 1, 1986. 3/ ESTIMATES REINSTATED IN 1986. 4/
CARRIED FORWARD FROM CHERRY UTILIZATION REPORT RELEASED OCT 3, 1986. 5/
MID-AUGUST FORECAST PUBLISHED IN “FILBERT PRODUCTION" RELEASED AUG 25, 1986.
6/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE
COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

PRODUCTION

YIELO PER RECTARE

cRoP 3 INDICATED INDICATED
: 1985 1986 1/ 1986 1/
METRIC TONS
POTATOES 3
WINTER 2/ 2 27.24 122,060 135,670
SPRING : 29.30 1,042,620 896,430
SUMMER : 24.48 1,260,710 996,630
FALL : 16,040,670
TOTAL : 18,466, 060
PEACHES : 974,450 1,033,010
PEARS : 677,580 644,550
APRICOTS : 119,290 62,690
NECTARINES (CALIF) : 197,420 176,900
PLUMS (CALIF) : 151,050. 117,930
OLIVES (CALIF) 87,090 90,720
PISTACHIO NUTS (CALIF) 12,290 31,750
ALMONDS (CALIF 210,920 320,200
WALNUTS (CALIF 198,670 172,370

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED “FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 7986 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-7 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED 1/

: : INDICATED
1985 1986
HECTARES
CORN : 33,730,100 31,017,870 30,405,980 27,911,870
SORGHUM : 7,399,760 6,059,420 6,746,990 5,464,930
RICE : 1,020,630 950,210 1,012,530 944,140
SOYBEANS 2/ : 25,548,080 25,024,010 24,922,430 24,189,540
PEANUTS : 603, 150 603,060 593,840 615,130
SUNFLOWER 2/ : 1,236,330 766,890 1,150,940 746,250
ALL COTTON : ‘4,323,950 3,881,220 4,139,570 3, 605,460
UPLAND : 4,289,960 3,840,350 4,105,740 3,564,870
AMER-PIMA : 33,990 40,870 33,830 40,590
ALL HAY : 24,505,200 24,646,430
ALFALFA $ 10,389,610 10,596,810
ALL OTHER : 14,115,590 14,049,620
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 637,750 688,380 601,530 574,860
ORY EDIBLE PEAS 3/ : 76,080 75,680
AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS 3/: 12,950 12,750
LENTILS 3/ : 68,800 67,580
TOBACCO : 278,430 248,600
SUGARBEETS : 455,070 501,010 446,170 491,420
SUGARCANE FOR :
SUGAR AND SEED : 311,610 324,320
HOPS : 11,370 10,120

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.

2/ 1985 REVISED.

3/ ESTIMATES REINSTATED IN 1986.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

FLAXSEED
POTATOES
WINTER 2/
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
TOTAL 2/
SWEETPOTATOES

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986

AREA PLANTED

250,910

5,340
37,230
47,590

480,080
570,250
44,600

A-6

AREA HARVESTED

1986 u 1985
“HECTARES
281,260 236,340

5,060 5,340
31,040 35,210
41,400 46,090
427,550 464,180
505,050 550,820
39,780 42,610

INDICATED
1986 1/

270,740

4,980
30,590
40,710

419,060
495,340
38,490

2/ 1986 REVISED.

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield
surveys taken about October 1. The yield surveys include maited reports from
farmers for all crops and actual field observations and measurements for corn,
soybeans, cotton, and some fruit and nut crops. Farmers provided appraisals
of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops on their farms and
for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot
observations, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These surveys
are subject to sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common to all
surveys, More importantly, the production forecasts are subject to change due
to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured currently
but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by expressing
the deviations between the October I production forecasts and the final
estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1966-85 20-year period; the square root of this
average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current
forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.

For example, the “Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for
grain production forecast is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out
of 3 that the current production forecast of 8,220 million bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately
312 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent or approximately 543 million
ushels,

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 242 million bushels, ranging
from 80 million to 538 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 8 times and above 2 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimates is about equally distributed.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-19 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


48.0
70.0
69.0

z
m
o
nm
~
o
°

1985
BUSHELS

41.0
65.0
67.0
53.0
45.0
53.0
78.0
69.0
76.0
56.0
45.0
73.0
60.0
67.0
70.0
55.0
33.0
61.0
63.0
77.0
42.0
53.0
85.0
43.0
92.0
70.0
38.0
56.0

50.0
71.0
47.0
65.0
61.0
66.0
45.0
63.7

’

1986

40.0
67.0
70.0
55.0
39.0
67.0
69.0
71.0
60.0
54.0
42.0
70.0
53.0
63.0
47.0
50.0
46.0
59.0
51.0
72.0
40.0
53.0
76.0
44.0
90.0
62.0
36.0
40.0

42.0
70.0
46.0
65.0
50.0
62.0
53.0
54.9

1984

1,440
1,960
3,450
2,750
3,300
2,992
11,385
4,960
47,360
6,360
252
2,240
855
21,700
78,000
1,584
3,885
15,680
336
10,620
3,944
49,980
13,860
3,680
6,600
15,960
2,320
86,800
235
8,750
871
564
2,040
408
53,320
3,220
473,661

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1984 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION,

OCTOBER 1986

A-9

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA

PRODUCTION
1985
1,000 BUSHELS

1,435
1,105
3,015
2,915
2,025
2,120
12,480
7,590
57,760
10,528
405
3,358
900
26,130
77,000
5,775
2,310
25,620
315
17,710
2,604
44,520
26,350
2,795
9,200
21,000
1,596
79,520

15,000
923
658

2,145
488
51,480
2,025
520,800



COTTON

3 AREA HARVESTED

CROP | alatalettattated wecneccesn S attaalad weereece sstatatatata etait stat atatesl atetatateletatateteatatatated
AND ' 3 IND os : UND : 3 IND
STATE + 1985 2 1986 : 1985 : 1986 1984°: 1985 : 1986

3 1, 000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 2/
UPLAND
ALA 2 329.0 347.0 795 484 447.0 545.0 350.0
ARIZ : 359.0 259.0 1,241 1,297 1,097.0 928.0 700.0
ARK : 440.0 440.0 767 584 612.0 703.0 535.0
CALIF : 1,320.0 1,010.0 1,132 1,046 2,913.0 3,114.0 2,200.0
FLA 3/3: 22.5 21.5 693 670 30.0 32.5 30.0
GA t 245.0 200.0 725 432 281.0 370.0 180.0
KANS 3/ ¢ 6 1.0 320 576 3 4 1.2
LA 2 630.0 570.0 565 632 1,056.0 742.0 750.0
MISS 3 1,040.0 1,000.0 764 576 1,650.0 1,655.0 1,200.0
MO 2 150.0 160.0 653 525 187.0 204.0 175.0
N MEX : 54.0 42,0 631 686 87.0 71.0 60.0
Nc 2 87.0 79.0 646 456 120.0 117.0 75.0
OKLA 3 360.0 350.0 380 377 183.0 285.0 275.0
sc 3 122.0 113.0 708 297 170.0 180.0 70.0
TENN 2 335.0 315.0 600 472 337.0 419.0 310.0
TEX 3 4,650.0 3,900.0 404 357 3,680.0 3,910.0 2,900.0
VA 3/3 1.3 1.4 443 411 Vi 1.2 1.2
us : 10,145.4 8,808.9 628 535 12,851.4 13,277.1 9,812.4
AMER~PIMA
ARIZ 3 56.3 72.5 927 993 88.1 108.7 150.0
N MEX 3 7.9 10,0 687 696 12.4 11.3 14,5
TEX 3 19.4 17.8 868 782 29.9 35.1 29.0
a s : 83.6 100.3 891 926 130.4 155.1 193.5
ALA 3 329.0 347.0 795 484 447.0 545.0 350.0
ARIZ 3 415.3 331.5 1,198 1,231 1,185.1 1,036.7 850.0
ARK : 440.0 440.0 767 584 612.0 703.0 535.0
CALIF : 1,320.0 1,010.0 1,132 1,046 2,913.0 3,114.0 2,200.0
FLA 3/3 22.5 21.5 693 670 30.0 32.5 30.0
GA 2 245.0 200.0 725 432 281.0 370.0 180.0
KANS 3/ ¢ 6 1.0 320 576 3 4 1.2
LA 2 630.0 570.0 565 632 1,056.0 742.0 750.0
MISS 2 1,040.0 1,000.0 764 576 1,650.0 1,655.0 1,200.0
MO 2 150.0 160.0 653 525 187.0 204.0 175.0
N MEX : 61.9 52.0 638 688 — 99.4 82.3 74.5
NC 3 87.0 79.0 646 456 120.0 117.0 75.0
OKLA ‘ 360.0 350.0 380 377 183.0 285.0 275.0
sc 3 122.0 113.0 708 297 170.0 180.0 70.0
TENN 3 335.0 315.0 600 472 337.0 419.0 310.0
TEX 3 4,669.4 3,917.8 406 359 3,709.9 3,945.1 2,929.0
vA B/ i: 1.3 1.4 443 411 1.1 1.2 1.2
us t 10,229.0 8,909.2 630 539 12,981.8 13,432.2 10, 005. 9

1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED.
2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

IND 1986

1,000 TONS
5,149 5,279 3,953

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-25 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA



@ Agricultural United States
ro p my Statistics Department of
Board

Agriculture

Pp ro d u ct i re) n National Ageiautturat Washington, 0.C. 20250

RELEASED: October 10, 1986
3:00 P.M. ET

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN FOR GRAIN production is forecast at 8.22 billion bushels (209 million
metric tons), down 7 percent from last year's record crop and down less
than one percent from the September 1 forecast. The 90 percent confidence
interval for this production forecast is 7.68 to 8.76 billion bushels.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at 1.99 billion bushels (54.2 million metric
tons), up 1 percent from the September 7 forecast but 5 percent below
last year. The 90 percent confidence interval for this production
forecast is 1.87 to 2.12 billion bushels.

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 10.0 million bales, a decrease of 5 per-
cent from September 1 and 26 percent below the 1985 crop. The 90 percent

confidence interval for this production forecast is 9.1 to 11.0 million
bales.

ALL ORANGE production is forecast at 201 million boxes (7.72 million metric
tons), 14 percent above last season and 27 percent higher than the
1984-85 season.

ALL TOBACCO production is forecast at 1.22 billion pounds (551 thousand metric
tons), down fractionally from September 1, 20 percent below last year's
production and the smallest crop since 1936.

PEANUT production is forecast at 3.37 billion pounds (1.53 million metric
tons), 18 percent below last year and 3 percent below the September 1
forecast.

HII IIR IIR IAI IIH IARI IIIA III I SI IRI III IAAI IIIA IIA IIA ISSIR IIIB IIA ISIII IAI.

NOTICE

The production forecasts for all crops included in this report (except
wheat, oats, barley, and rye) reflect conditions as of October 1. Data
collection took place between September 22 and October 3. Unusually
heavy rainfall and flooding occurred during most of September and con-
tinued into October. The States hardest hit included those on a line
from Texas to the Great Lakes. The full extent of the damage cannot

be determined at this time. Efforts to assess the damage will continue
and will be reflected in later reports.

xe RR

Inctuded in this report: Small Grains preliminary Annual Summary,

Pages A-2 and A~3 (U.S.) and A-8 - A-18 (State Data).
HIRI HAH RIK IIH RIK IK IH IAI KIKI HI HIKERS HFK Fo HII KIKI IEK ISIE KIER IKK IK IKI SII IKI AS.

4 HH OF FO OF
Pe ee

CrPr 2-2 (10-86) For Information Cal}: (202) 447-2127


PAPAYAS: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is forecast at 3.20 million

pounds (1450 metric tons) in October. A steady increase is antici-
pated over the next 3 months; 3.80 million pounds (1720 metric tons) in
November, 5.30 million pounds (2400 metric tons) in December, and 6.20 million
pounds (2810 metric tons) in January 1987.

Fresh papaya utilization in September is estimated at 3.15 million pounds
(1430 metric tons), down 8 percent from August and 15 percent below September
a year ago. Cumulative fresh production (January through September) is 8
percent lower than the same period last year. September's total crop area of
3970 acres (1610 hectares) is virtually unchanged from August, but is 12
percent above last year. Area harvested during September rose 2 percent from
August to 2380 acres (960 hectares), which is 1 percent more than last year.

PECANS: U.S. pecan production is forecast at 216 million pounds (98.0 thousand
metric tons) in-shell basis, up 3 percent from the September 1 fore-

cast but 12 percent smaller than last year's crop.

Georgia production is -expected to total 85.0 million pounds, unchanged
from the September 1 forecast and 2 percent higher than the smal? 1985's
crop. After the drought was broken in August, dry and record hot weather
returned in September. Dryland nut size is expected to be smaller than
normal. Shedding is still occurring in some groves. Expectations for the
Alabama crop improved from the September 1 forecast. The current production
forecast of 15.0 million pounds is 15 percent greater than September 1 but is
6 percent below last year's output. Harvest is just getting underway in
Louisiana where production is set at 15.0 million pounds, the same as in 1985.

The Texas forecast, at 40.0 million pounds, remains unchanged from
September 1 but is down 49 percent from year-earlier output. Considerable nut
droppage has occurred from dry conditions and disease problems. Crop
expectations increased 4.00 million pounds from the September 1 forecast in
Oklahoma, where production is now expected to reach 16.0 million pounds, 60
percent greater than the 1985 crop. An early harvest is anticipated in New
Mexico, where production is forecast at 24.0 million pounds.

FILBERTS: The forecast of production in Oregon and Washington, at 17.3 thou-

sand tons (15.7 thousand metric tons), is the same as the mid-August
forecast pubtished August 25, 1986, but 30 percent below the record high
production established last year. Above average rainfall during September has
growers anxiously waiting to harvest. Nut drop is estimated to be 95 percent
complete. Harvest has just begun and early October weather conditions have
been favorable,

ORANGES: The first production forecast of U.S. all oranges for the 1986-87

season is 201 mitlion boxes (7.72 million metric tons), 14 percent
higher than last season and 27 percent above the 1984-85 season. The forecast
for all Florida oranges is 129 million boxes, 8 percent more than last
season's crop and 24 percent above 1984-85. Production of Florida early and
mid-season varieties, at 72.0 million boxes, is 12 percent more than last
season and 31 percent above the 1984-85 crop. Florida Valencia production is
expected to total 57.0 million boxes, 4 percent higher than last season's crop
and 17 percent above 1984-85 production.

California's 1986-87 all orange crop forecast, at 69.0 million boxes, is
26 percent higher than last season and 32 percent above the 1984-85 season.
The Navel crop for California is expected to total 40.0 million boxes, 20
percent more than the 1985-86 crop and 53 percent above 1984-85. California's
Valencia forecast, at 29.0 million boxes, is 35 percent higher than last
season's crop and 11 percent more than the crop harvested in 1984-85. The
Arizona all orange crop is expected to total 2.20 million boxes, 4 percent
lower than last season and 10 percent below the 1984-85 crop. The Texas all
orange crop is expected to total 850 thousand boxes, compared with 310
thousand boxes last season.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-13 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


ALL WHEAT: ACREAGE

3 AREA PLANTED V/ AREA HARVESTED

: 1,000 ACRES

ALA : 480 500 340 380 400 220
ARIZ t 145 114 98 142 112 96
ARK : 1,500 650 850 1,400 570 780
CALIF : 870 885 730 784 830 675
COLO t 3,875 3,774 35360 3,270 3,522 2,955
DEL : 50 45 40 49 43 34
FLA 2/: 160 120 130 100
GA : 1,000 950 640 890 825 550
IDAHO 2 1,550 1,500 1,430 1,280 1,350 1,310
{LL + 1,800 850 1,300 1,600 750 820
IND : 1,170 770 900 1,050 700 700
(OWA 3 110 120 90 100 112 60
KANS 3 13,300 12,400 11,500 11,200 11,400 10,200
KY 3 670 430 440 500 310 270
LA Hy 400 250 240 320 210 210
MD 3 147 140 160 140 133 140
MICH 3 900 770 750 800 750 680
MINN 3 2,635 2,835 3,065 2,553 2,683 2,939
MISS 3 770 380 250 660 300 200
MO 3 2,350 1,500 1,050 2,050 1,280 570
MONT 3 5,015 5,660 4,990 4,640 3,960 4,634
NEBR 3 3,200 2,600 2,300 2,250 2,300 2,000
NEV 2 27 27 26 24 24 23
Nd : 48 45 40 39 37 30
N MEX 3 730 730 740 460 570 460
NY 3 180 155 165 170 145 155
NC 3 700 800 525 620 760 460
N DAK 3 8,820 9,350 9,320 8,660 8,870 9,130

OHTO z 1,240 1,000 1,150 1,100

OKLA % 7,700 7,800 7,400 5,300

OREG : 1,200 1,140 1,090 1,115

PA 2 230 220 230 220

sc 3 400 460 325 380

S DAK z 3,995 4,170 4,065 3,662

2 535

5,000

231

275

2,610

10

177

282

66,928

1/ INCLUDES AREA PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.
2/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1985 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-12 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


BARLEY: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

3 BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ARIZ s 101.0 97.0 100.0 5,353 6,014 2,900
CALIF z 63.0 59.0 59.0 28,980 24,780 23,600
COLO 3 62.0 64.0 58.0 20,150 21,760 20,300
DEL : 55.0 58.0 61.0 2,750 3,306 3,050
1OAHO 3 66.0 58.0 61.0 88,440 71,920 67,710
KANS 3 43.0 44.0 36.0 6,665 9,680 10,440
KY : 37.0 35.0 31.0 1,110 910 527
MD 3 58.0 57.0 63.0 5,510 5,472 5,166
MICH 3 60.0 68.0 59.0 2,040 2,584 3,245
MINN : 65.0 66.0 53.0 61,750 70,950 53,000
MONT 3 28.0 20.0 41.0 59,080 30,000 69,380
NEBR 3 34.0 32.0 41.0 2,652 3,840 5,535
NEV 3 90.0 80.0 80.0 3,330 2,960 2,960
NJ 3 55.0 63.0 62.0 825 1,071 992
N MEX z 75.0 70.0 65.0 1,500 1,050 1,040
nc : 63.0 40.0 36.0 4,032 2,640 1,620
N DAK 2 53.0 55.0 51.0 153,700 184,250 175,950
OKLA : 41.0 38.0 36.0 2,050 1,900 1,260
OREG 3 62.0 55.0 55.0 17,360 19,250 20,075
PA 3 52.0 62.0 60.0 3,640 4,340 3,900
sc : 52.0 38.0 28.0 1,560 1,216 588
S_DAK z 51.0 45.0 40.0 30,345 32,400 33,200
TEX t 50.0 45.0 50.0 2,000 2,250 1,750
UTAH z 73.0 7 74.0 74.0 11,607 11,766 >
VA : 60.0 48.0 55.0 5,760 4,800
WASH : 65.0 48.0 45.0 63,700 56,640
WVA 1/3 53.0 265
wis z 53.0 58.0 57.0 2,650 3,074 4,845
Wyo 3 65.0 66.0 68.0 10,400 10,560 10,880
u s 3 53.4 51 0 50.0 599,204 591,383 599,843

ny, ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1984 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-11 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


Producers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina,
and South Carolina) expect to harvest 675 thousand bales, down 44 percent from
last year's production and down 4 percent from September 1. August rains
brought relief from the record drought in the area, but September turned dry
with record high temperatures. Harvest is running behind last year due to
difficulties in getting good defoliation.

Bureau of the Census reports 2,407,791 running bales ginned prior to
October 1 compared with 2,430,799 to the same date last year and 1,174,761
bales in 1984.

COTTONSEED: Production for 1986, based on a three year average lint-seed

ratio, is forecast at 3.95 million tons (3.59 million metric
tons), 25 percent below the 1985 production of 5.28 million tons (4.79 million
metric tons).

ALL HAY: Production of all hay is forecast at a record high 158 million

tons (143 million metric tons). This is 3 percent more than
expected August 1 and 6 percent more than 1985 production. Total area
expected to be harvested of 60.9 million acres (24.6 million hectares) exceeds
last year by 1 percent. Yields are forecast at an average of 2.59 tons per
acre compared with 2.46 tons per acre a year previous.

Orought early in the season seriously limited growth and production in
more eastern and southern parts of the. country until mid-season. However,
this was more than offset by good growing conditions to the north and west
where abundant growth prevailed.

ALFALFA HAY: The production forecast of 94.6 million tons (85.8 million metric

tons) is a new record high, 3 percent above the previous
forecast made August 17 and 11 percent above the tonnage produced a_ year
earlier. Area for harvest, at 26.2 million acres (10.6 million hectares), is
up 2 percent from a year ago. Average yield, forecast at 3.67 tons per acre,
is 0.29 of a ton above the 1985 average.

ALL OTHER HAY: Production of all other hay is forecast at 63.4 million tons
(57.5 million metric tons), up 4 percent from the expectations
of August 1 but down fractionally from the 1985 crop. Area for harvest, at
34.7 million acres (14.0 million hectares), is down fractionally from a year
ago. Yield is expected to average 1.83 tons per acre, the same as last year.

ORY BEANS: Heavy September ratns have cut the dry bean production forecast 13

percent from September 1. Production is forecast at 22.3 million
cwt (1.01 million metric tons), fractionally above last year and 6 percent
above two years ago. Area for harvest, at 1.42 million acres (575 thousand
hectares), also dropped 13 percent from September 1, and is 4 percent below
last year. The average yield is forecast at 1571 pounds per acre, 73 pounds
above last year and 128 pounds above two years ago.

Michigan's dry bean crop was severely damaged by record rainfall during
September. Harvest was just starting when the rain began. By October 1, only
5 percent of the crop had been harvested, about half the acreage has been
abandoned, and if harvest can be resumed after several days of drying, yields
in remaining fields will be reduced. It will be sometime before full extent
of the damage can be determined.

Harvest is underway in New York and north central States. There have been
some rain delays and harvest pace is behind normal but damage is minimal, so
far. North Dakota dry beans are 35 percent harvested compared with a normal
62 percent. Minnesota harvest is 45 percent complete. Nebraska harvest is 70
percent | complete, but much of the northern Panhandle crop remains to be
combined.

Colorado ‘s southwestern counties have had rain delays. Overall, harvest
is nearly 60 percent complete compared with 75 percent normally. Conditions
across Idaho's Magic Valley are favorable with good yields reported.
California harvest is active, with no major problems. Progress in Washington,
although nearing completion, was slowed by late September rain.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-9 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT 1/

PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
BOXES j TON EQUIVALENT
Pere e ene enw ne nn enn ne nn nee e coe nen nee enn e ee. eee ene en ene
AND UTILIZED t INDICATED UTILIZED s INDICATED

1984-85 : 1985-86 ; 1986-87

STATE 1984-85 +

1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES, EARLY MID
& NAVEL
ARIZ 650 600 700 25 23 26
CALIF 26,200 33,300 40,000 982 1,249 1,500
FLA 55,000 64,200 72,000 2,475 2,889 3,240
TEX 0 200 500 0 9 21
us 81,850 98,300 113,200 3,482 4,170 4,787
ORANGES, VALENCIA
ARIZ 1,800 1,700 1,500 68 64 56
CALIF 26,200 21,500 29,000 983 807 1,088
FLA 48,900 54,800 57,000 2,201 2,466 2,565
TEX 0 110 350 0 5 15
us 76,900 78,110 87,850 3,252 3,342 3,724
ALL ORANGES
ARIZ 2,450 2,300 2,200 93 87 82
CALIF 52,400 54,800 68,000 4,965 2,056 2,588
FLA 103,900 119,000 129,000 4,676 5,355 5,805
TEX 0 310 850 0 14 36
us 158,750 176,410 201,050 6,734 7,512 8,51
TEMPLES :
FLA : 3,250 2,950 3,600. 146 135 162
GRAPEFRUIT,WHITE +
SEEDLESS t
FLA t 24,800 25,600 27,000 1,054 1,088 1,148
GRAPEFRUIT, COLORED:
SEEDLESS '
FLA + 16,300 18,000 19,500 693 765 829
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT +
FLA + 2,900 3,150 3,500 123 134 149
ALL GRAPEFRUIT :
ARIZ + 3,000 2,400 2,100 96 7 67
CALIF Sit
DESERT 2 3,800 3,600 3,800 121 115 122
OTHER AREAS : 5,000 4,800 168 161
TOTAL : 8,800 8,400 289 216
FLA 1 44,000 46,750 50,000 1,870 1,987 2,126
TEX Als 0 220 2,100 0 9 84
us 1 55,800 57,770 2,255 2,349
TANGER INES '
ARIZ 700 700 850 26 26 32
CALIF : 1,680 1,800 1,900 63 68 "
FLA : 1,050 1,150 1,500 50 55 "
us 2 3,430 3,650 4,250 139 149 174
LEMONS :
ARIZ + 6,000 3,250 5,700 228 123 217
CALIF : 19,800 15,100 19,000 752 574 722
us t 25,800 18,350 24,700 980 697 939
TANGELOS :
FLA : 3,600 2,950 4,000 162 135 180

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST |S COMPLETED.

2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ-75,FLA-90,

TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF
OTHER~67, FLA-85, TEX~80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS &
TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES~ CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA~95.

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA, EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEXAS.

4/ QUE TO THE SEVERE FREEZE OF DECEMBER 1963, NO COMMERCIAL
SUPPLIES WERE HARVESTED FOR THE 1964-85 TEXAS CITRUS CROPS.

5/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT “OTHER AREAS®
WILL BE AS OF APR 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A~32 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


The October 1 U.S. all orange production forecast has deviated from the
final production by an average of 22.3 million boxes over the past 10 seasons,
ranging from a low of 2.50 million boxes in 1977-78 to a high of 53.0 million
boxes in the 1983-84 season. The large difference between the October 1, 1983
forecast and the final production for the 1983-84 season was the result of the
Jate December 1983 freeze losses to the Florida and Texas citrus crops.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1986-87 yield projection of

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice is
1.44 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This at? orange yield computation
is projected to the final amount reported by the Florida Citrus Processors
Association at the end of the harvest season. The 1985-86 final season
average yield was 1.37834 gallons per box. In 1984-85, the FCOJ final yield
was 1.37582 gallons per box.

GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects for the 1986-87 season, excluding California's "Other

Areas" grapefruit, indicate a crop of 58.0 million boxes (2.18
million metric tons), 9 percent more than last season and 14 percent above the
1984-85 utilized crop. The California “Other Areas" grapefruit production,
which will be forecast as of April 1, 1987, accounted for 4.80 million boxes
harvested last season and 5.00 million boxes in 1984-85

Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 50.0 million boxes, up 7
percent from last season and 14 percent above 1984-85 utilized production.
The Florida white seedless grapefruit forecast is 27.0 million boxes, up 5§
percent from last season; colored seedless is 19.5 million boxes, up 8 percent
from last season; and seedy grapefruit is 3.50 million boxes, 11 percent more
than 1985-86. The Texas crop is forecast at 2.10 million boxes, compared with
220 thousand boxes harvested last season.

The Arizona crop forecast is 2.10 million boxes, down 12 percent from last
season and 30 percent below 1984-85 utilized production.

LEMONS: The Arizona-Catifornia lemon crop (tree crop available for harvest)
totals 24.7 million boxes (852 thousand metric tons), 35 percent more
than the crop harvested during the 1985-86 season but 4 percent below the
1984-85 utilized production. In California, the crop is expected to total
13.0 million boxes, 26 percent higher than last season but 4 percent below

In Arizona, a tree crop of 5.70 million boxes is expected, 75 percent
higher than the crop utilized last season but 5 percent lower than utilized
production in 1984-85.

TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-early citrus, is forecast at
4.00 million boxes (163 thousand metric tons), 36 percent above
last season and 11 percent more than 1984-85.

TANGERINES: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 4.25 million boxes (158

thousand metric tons), 16 percent more than Tast season and 24
percent above the 1984-85 utilized production. The Florida forecast, at 1.50
million boxes, is for that portion of the crop expected to reach a size of 210
fruit per 4/& bushel carton by December 1 for the Dancy variety, and by
November 1 for Robinson. (An estimate of utilized crop will be shown in the
February Crop Production report). The Dancy tangerine forecast is 1.00
million boxes while the forecast for Robinson tangerines is 500 thousand
boxes. The California tangerine forecast, at 1.90 million boxes, is 6 percent
above last season and 13 percent above 1984-85. The Arizona tangerine crop is
forecast at 850 thousand boxes, up 21 percent from both the 1985-86 and the
1984-85 crop.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-14 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA



TOBACCO

AREA HARVESTED t Y TELD : pRopucT TON
STATE oe Ame Lemme enwnenawewnneenncnen
fy Fy IND : : IND ¢ t
: 1985 : 19866 : 1985 1986 1984 ¢ 1985

ACRES POUNDS 1 7000. POUNDS

2,000 1,980 1,658 1,540 2,824 3,315 3,049
6,100 5,500 2,675 2,430 17,920 16,318 13,365
36,000 33,000 2,280 2,070 85,500 82,080 68,310
6,500 6,100 2,240 2,150 18,792 14,560 13,115
186,300 159,100 2,300 2,025 530,088 428,409 322,178
20,000 18,000 1,330 1,280 30,360 26,600 23,040
490 480 1,594 1,440 785 783 691
2,500 2,300 2,180 2,150 5,844 5,450 4,945
250,700 226,000 2,220 590,026 536,522 465,120
7,920 7,300 2,140 26,507 16,946 13,870
11,500 11,000 1,904 22,370 21,900 20,350
43,000 40,000 2,300 105,515 98,900 84,000
61,710 54,000 2,065 154,646 127,403 90,180
43,300 39,000 2,104 115,897 91,092 74,880
1,800 1,800 1,880 4,488 3,384 3,348
8,200 6,700 2,141 16,400 17,360 14,740
688,020 614,260 2, 196 1,978 1, 727,962 1,511,220 1,215,181

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUGARBEETS 1/

3 AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

STATE Delete eet telat tated teeta ete etn an ene enn n nn nen nnn n nn ne
t t IND t 2 IND
: 1985 3 1986 : 1984 : 1985 1986

1, 000 ACRES 1,000 TONS
CALIF 203.0 197.0 23.5 25.0 5,088 4,771 4,925
COLO 2.5 36.9 18.5 21.0 964 46 775
IDAHO 152.0 160.0 23.0 24.0 3,312 3,496 3,840
KANS 0 0 0.0 0.0 122 oO
MICH 118.0 125.0 19.7 19.0 2,117 2,325 2,375
MINN 276.0 312.0 18.4 17.5 4,340 5,088 5,460
MONT 42.7 47.1 19.0 20.5 416 Bit 966
NEBR 53.2 59.0 23.1 23,0 1,480 1,229 1,357
N DAK 144.2 162.0 16.68 17.5 2,309 2,423 2,835
OHIO 12.7 15.0 20.3 20.0 201 258 300
OREG 1.8 307 319 365
TEX 37.0 824 833 851
WYO 49.8 654 1,037 985
v s 1, $02. 5 1,214.3 22,134 22,636 25,034

17 RELATES To YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR
OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED BEETS IN CALIF.

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

: AREA HARVESTED =: YHELO
STATE Penne ne nce nnn n een e nnn nn nnn een ee nnnnn

: : JWD + + IND

: 1985 + 1986 : 1985 : 1986 : 1984 : 1985

: 1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS

:
FLA 2 398.7 405.0 32.9 33.0 12,617 13,417
HAW : 89.4 90.0 90.9 94.0 8,684 8,129
LA : 250.0 275.0 24.0 27.0 5,060 6,006
TEX 2 319 31.4 30.1 32.0 979 961
us : 770.0 Bor. 4 36.6 37.8 27 340 28, 2213

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986

A-3T

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA ©



OATS: ACREAGE

AREA HARVESTED

STATE

ALA 80 80
ARK 50 22
CALIF 320 340
COLO 130 115
GA 125 5
IDAHO: 75 70
TU 375 600
IND 120 180
IOWA 1,300 1,600
KANS 175 235
ky 25 28
MAINE 47 51
MD 18 vi
MICH 370 420
MINN 2 1,500 1,550
MO 65 170
MONT 3 220 225
NEBR 450 550
Nd 3 7 6
NY : 230 270
nc : 125 105
N DAK : 1,150 1,175
OHTO : 250 340
OKLA : 190 155
OREG : 115 140
PA : 300 320
sc 3 70 70
S DAK : 1,700 1,900
TENN 2/: 30

TEX : 1,500 1,200
UTAH 2 26 26
VA : 40 50
WASH : 75 70
WYA 3 VW 14
WIS H 1,040 950
WYO : 110 96
US : «(12,414 13,255

60 30 35 30

43 28 17 33
360 50 45 45
90 50 55 40

60 60 45 35

60 44 40 30
1,400 165 160 200
400 80 110 90
2,500 740 760 630
280 120 188 200
35 6 9 6

47 40 46 4l

19 15 15 17
330 350 390 270
1,600 1,200 1,100 850
190 33 105 100
200 105 70 80
760 320 420 360

6 6 5 5

230 180 230 190
100 68 62 55
1,050 980 840 800
260 220 310 160
200 80 65 100
140 75 100 95
290 280 300 270
55 40 42 28
1,500 1,550 1,420 1,050
5 0

1,000 250 300 200
24 13 13 12

40 12 4 10

70 30 33 33

WV 8 8 10
1,200 860 780 850
92 70 45 62
14,708 8,163 8,177 6,987

T/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1984 CROP.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986

A-8

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

IND ¢ :
1985 : 1986 : 1985:

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS
z
: 230 90 55.0 45.0 9,000 12,650 4,050
: 16 10 81.0 87.0 1,360 1,296 870
2 920 595 72.0 60.0 42,480 66,240 35,700
3 36 26 63.0 85.0 3,936 2,988 2,210
: 320 280 35.0 36.0 15,910 11,200 10,080
3 138 65 48.0 30.0 4,746 6,624 1,950
t 470 200 77.0 90.0 19,665 36,190 18,000
: 845
: 660
: 4,200 4,000 69.0 70.0 216,750 289,800 280,000
: 143 65 80.0 75.0 9,200 11,440 4,875
2 410 360 68.0 67.0 17,485 27,880 24,120
z 620 240 64.0 62.0 23,680 39,680 14,880
: 1,410 1,100 83.0 81.0 91,770 117,030 89,100
: 1,920 1,500 80.0 83.0 121,600 153,600 124,500
: 290 220 48.0 46.0 15,400 13,920 10,120
t 62 50 52.0 28.0 3,025 3,224 1,400
t 500 450 45.0 45.0 18,000 22,500 20,250
: 47 38 47.0 28.0 1,564 2,209 1,064
: 375 350 40.0 46.0 18,565 15,000 16,100
2 465 165 80.0 60.0 20,800 37,200 9,900
TEX 3 4,100 3,700 59.0 59.0 209,350 241,900 218,300
vA 2/ ? 450
us t 16,672 13,504 66.7 65.7 866,241 1,112,571 867,469

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1984 CROP.

AREA HARVESTED : YIELD t PRODUCTION

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
ARK 1,050.0 1,040.0 5,200 5,200 52,900 54,600 54,080
CALIF 400.0 340.0 7,400 7,700 32,060 29,594 26,180
LA 463.0 418.0 4,370 4,550 21,932 20,256 19,019

5,350 5,500 8,265 10,058 9,790
4,810 4,600 3,493 3,463 3,128
5,490 6,000 20,160 18,071 17,340
3,437 3,552 138,810 136,042 129,557

WV ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

RICE PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

LONG GRAIN : MEDIUM GRAIN + SHORT GRAIN ALL
1, 000 ont

96,029 35,304 7,477 138,810

100,938 28,680 6,424 136,042

95,114 30,049 4,374 129,537

Vv INDICATED OCTOBER 1, 1986, RICE CLASS FORECASTS ARE BASED ON A FIVE YEAR
AVERAGE OF CLASS PERCENTAGES. THE CLASS PERCENTAGES ARE ADJUSTED AS DATA
BECOME AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-22 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


SEPTEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

Severe weather and heavy rain from southern Minnesota across the lower
Great Lakes caused serious flooding. Wet weather continued for most of the
month from the northern Great Plains eastward to the Lake Ontario region.
Heavy thunderstorms early in the month also brought a variety of severe
weather to much of Texas, including heavy rain. However, little rain fell in
the southern tip of Texas. Above-normal rain fell across the Corn Belt and in
the central and southern Appalachian Mountains. The rainy season seemed to
have begun in the West when rain or snow fell in most areas west of the
Rockies in the last week. In the last days of the month, a line of
thunderstorms developed from Oklahoma to northern New England. Torrential
rain fell in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. Average temperatures were cool
in the West and northern Great Plains and warm in the South and Southeast.
(Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility.)

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

Winter wheat seeding advanced to 51] percent completion, 11 points ahead of
1985 and 9 points above the average, by September 28. Eight of the 20 major
producing States were seeding wheat ahead of normal on this date. Rain
hampered seeding in the Corn Belt, the northern Great Plains, and in some
Rocky Mountain States the third and fourth week of September. Oryness was
becoming a problem in the Southeast as the month drew to a close.

Nebraska's wheat was 85 percent seeded compared with 75 percent last year
and 80 percent average. Sixty-five percent of the acreage was emerged, 15
points greater than normal. Rain aided germination and early growth.

In Oklahoma, winter wheat seeding reached 50 percent completion near the
end of September. Last year at this time, 35 percent was seeded and 30
percent would have been planted normally. Emergence doubled the normal pace
with 20 percent of the crop out of the ground.

Kansas wheat producers had sown 70 percent of their acreage, surpassing
1985 by 30 points and the average by 25 points. Emergence was ahead of
schedule but heavy rain caused some reseeding in southern and western Kansas.

SEPTEMBER ROW CROP DEVELOPMENT

Below-normal temperatures slowed crop development across the eastern half
of the Nation during most of September. Rain, early in the month, provided
moisture which aided late-planted soybeans in the Delta and the Southeast.
Temperatures returned to normal the last week of the month which hastened crop
maturity across the eastern half of the Nation. Rain hindered harvest
activities in the Corn Belt, the northern Great Plains and the Rocky Mountain
States during most of September.

Corn was 81 percent mature by September 28, compared with 81 percent last
year and 79 percent normally. In Minnesota and Michigan, crop maturity lagged
28 and 40 points behind normal, respectively. South Dakota's corn crop was 66
percent mature compared with 85 percent average. Maturity was 23 points below
average in Wisconsin. Harvest was 14 percent finished in the 17 major
producing States, slightly ahead of last year and average. Harvest lagged
behind normal in some Corn Belt, northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain
States, where wetness presisted most of the month.

Sixty-seven percent of the soybean acreage had reached the leaf dropping
stage, 5 points ahead of both 1985 and average at month's end. Harvest, at 8
percent completion, was 2 points below normal. tate maturity in the Southeast,
and wetness in the Corn Belt and in the northern and central Plains caused
harvest to lag behind normal. Harvest was 14 points behind normal in both
Towa and South Dakota. Harvest had not begun in Georgia, South Carolina,
South Dakota, North Carolina, and Tennessee by September 28.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-4 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


Cotton started the month headed for early maturity but rain early in
September forced new growth in the Delta. Cotton was blooming and opening
bolls at the same time in some States. Bolls were opening on 60 percent of
the acreage, down 10 points from last year and 6 points below normal on
September 28. Bolls were opening 10, 14, and 21 points slower than normal in
Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas, respectively. Harvest reached 19 percent
completion, compared with 13 percent normally.

On September 28, sorghum was 68 percent mature when normally 59 percent
would be mature. Despite rapid maturity, harvest did not keep pace largely
because of precipitation. Harvest was 36 percent finished equaling the
average. Harvest was behind normal in Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South
Dakota, and Texas.

Rice was 76 percent harvested compared with 59 percent average. Harvest
was finished in Texas and neared completion in Louisiana and Mississippi.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 8.22 billion

bushels (209 million metric tons), down 7 percent from last
year's record crop and down less than one percent from the September 1
forecast.

The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at a record high 119.2 bushels,
up 1.2 bushels from the previous record high yield set Jast year. In the
northern Corn Belt, the yields declined from September 1 in several States.
Michigan's yield is down 6 bushels from the September 1 forecast, while
Indiana, Minnesota and Wisconsin's yields are each down 2 bushels. Heavy
rainfall has caused some probelms with mold, ears sprouting and stalk rot and
yields will very likely be affected.

The crop progress ran ahead of normal for most of the season. However,
heavy rain in September has slowed harvest and by October 5, about 18 percent
of the crop was harvested in the 17 major producing States. This compares
with 17 percent last year and 21 percent average. Some frost was received in
the northern States but no major damage occurred since the crop maturity was
ahead of normal and the crop was safe from frost. Flooding occurred in
several States in September and early October due to the heavy rainfall,
leaving water standing in some fields. This may reduce both quality and
yield. Ory weather is needed for fields to dry out and enable growers to
harvest the crop.

U.S, CORN PRODUCTION

OCTOBER 1006
‘BTULNN BUSHEL:
is

aoe

asp

uso

nee

AS
oer
as
Sto
Co

aor

as

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-5 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY

AREA HARVESTED
STATE eee n eee eww n enn nn=:
: iND

1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
ARIZ 145 155 7.10 1,008 1,030 1,101
ARK o1/ 42 30 2.70 88 109 81
CALIF 1,030 1,080 6.60 6,630 6,695 7,128
COLO 820 725 3.40 2,387 2,706 2,465
CONN 1/ 24 22 2.65 62 62 58
DEL 1/ 7 8 3.00 26 27 24
IDAHO 1,020 1,060 3.70 3,938 3,570 3,922
TLL 800 630 4.10 3,040 3,280 2,583
IND 410 430 3.80 1,554 1,599 1,634
1OWA 1,550 1,610 4.10 6,600 5,813 6,601
KANS 1,010 1,000 4.00 3,264 3,939 4,000
ky 250 255 3.10 736 900 791
LA v/ 15 15 2.50 29 39 38
MAINE 1/ 26 24 2.65 70 68 64
MD iv 15 78 2.65 296 300 207
1

Vv ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

LENTILS, 1986

STATE AREA REA YIELD PRODUCTION
PLANTED HARVESTED
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
1,150 460
1,220 1,549

1,203 2,009

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-28 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED

CROP

(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED

AREA HARVESTED 1/

INDICATED
1986

CORN

SORGHUM

RICE

SOYBEANS 2/

PEANUTS

SUNFLOWER 2/

ALL COTTON
UPLAND
AMER-PIMA

ALL HAY
ALFALFA
ALL OTHER

DRY EDIBLE BEANS

DRY EDIBLE PEAS 3/

AUSTRIAN WINTER PEAS 3/:

LENTILS 3/
TOBACCO
SUGARBEETS
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED
HOPS

10,684.6
10,600.6
84.0

1,575.9

1986 1985
1,000 ACRES
76,646 75,134
14,973 16,672
2,348.0 2,502.0
61,835 61,584
1,505.0 1,467.4
1,895 2,844
9,590.6 10,229.0
9,489.6 10,145.4
101.0 83.6
60,553
25,673
34,880
1,701.0 1,486.4
188.0
32.0
170.0
688.0
1,238.0 1,102.5
770.0
28.1

68,971
13,504
2,333.0
59,773
1,520.0
1,844
8,909.2
8,808.9
100.3
60,902
26,185
34,717
1,420.5
187.0
31.5
167.0
614.3
1,214.3

801.4
25.0

T/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., “GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.
2/ 1985 REVISED. 3/ ESTIMATES REINSTATED IN 1986.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED

(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED

AREA PLANTED

INDICATED
1986 1/

FLAXSEED
POTATOES
WINTER 2/
SPRING
‘SUMMER
FALL
TOTAL 2/
SWEETPOTATOES

620

13.2
92.0
117.6
1,186.3
1,409.1
110.2

1,000 ACRES
695

12.5
76.7
102.3
1,056.5
1,248.0
98.3

584

13.2
87.0
13.9
1,147.0
1,361.1
105.3

669

12.3
75.6
100.6
1,035.5
1,224.0
95.1

1/_ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-4

/

1986 REVISED.

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


Eastern States expect 2.99 billion pounds, down 2 percent from Augus. 1
and 6 percent below a year ago. New York's crop is picking out below earlier
expectations. Significant scab infestations are being reported throughout the
State. Above normal temperatures have caused apples to ripen more rapidly
than they can be picked. In Pennsylvania, good to excellent quality apples
are developing about 10 days ahead of normal. Fruit are sizing and coloring
well, with no major disease problems. With the Virginia crop about 60 percent
picked, harvest is active and ahead of last year's pace.

Prospects in the Central States are forecast at 1.01 billion pounds, down
5 percent from the August 1 forecast and 39 percent from 1985. Apple harvest
in Michigan stopped in many areas because of heavy rains that started in
mid-September. The rains have caused a loss of quality. Sunny, dry weather
is needed to help fruit color and sugar content, and to start harvesting
again. Rains have also caused harvest problems in Missouri and Ohio.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 3.74 billion pounds,
unchanged from the August 1 forecast but 19 percent above the 1985 crop. Cool
nights, needed to color the fruit, began in early September in Washington.
Fruit of good quality and size are being picked. There are some problems with
watercore apples. Harvest is active in Califonia where large fruit are being
picked. Harvest in Idaho is ahead of normal despite rainy weather. Rains
have slowed picking of Colorado's short crop.

GRAPES: The final forecast of U.S. grape production is 4.91 million tons,

(4.45 million metric tons), down fractionally from the September 1
forecast and 12 percent below 1985 production. Changes from September 1
forecasts included: New York, down 10.0 thousand tons; Pennsylvania, down 3.00
thousand; and Washington, up 5.00 thousand tons.

California total grape output, at 4.45 million tons, is 14 percent below
1985. Production by type, and percentage change from 1985, are as follows:
table grapes, 550 thousand tons, down 5 percent; wine varieties, 2.00 miltion
tons, off 7 percent; and raisin grapes, 1.90 million tons, down 23 percent. A
large harvest of late variety table grapes is expected for fresh market. No
significant rain damage was reported. Wine grape harvest made excellent
progress during September despite rain showers that fell during the last week
and labor strikes at several major wineries. Most of the raisins were
harvested before the rain showers late in the month, Nearly 475 thousand tons
of raisin type grapes, as well as over 166 thousand tons of table varieties
had been crushed for wine by October 1.

The New York forecast, at 165 thousand tons, is 13 percent above last
year's output. Mildew, Black Rot, and berry splitting continue to plague New
York's wine vineyards. Production in Washington is expected to total 155 thou-
sand tons, up 34 percent from 1985. Concord harvest is expected to be
completed around mid-October, which is about two weeks ahead of the 1985
harvest.

Pennsylvania production is forecast at 55.0 thousand tons, up 10 percent
from last year. Black rot losses have been noted after recent heavy rainfall.
Michigan production is expected to fall 31 percent from last year's crop to
35.0 thousand tons. Harvest has been slowed by heavy rainfal).

PRUNES AND PLUMS: California's prune production (dried basis) is forecast at

95.0 thousand tons (86.2 thousand metric tons), unchanged
from the September 1 forecast but 32 percent less than the 1985 crop. Harvest
was complete about two weeks ahead of normal. Fruit quality was excellent and
sugar levels were the highest in recent years.

Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington
is forecast at 46.5 thousand tons (42.2 thousand metric tons). This last
forecast of the season is unchanged from the September 1 forecast but 8
percent below last year's crop. Ideal growing conditions--warm days, cool
nights and timely rains--helped to size and color Michigan's crop. Harvest
was virtually complete by the time the record rains hit in September. The
Oregon crop was in good condition when harvest began in mid-September.
Picking has been slowed by late September rains but only minor splitting and
brown rot have been reported so far. Harvest is complete in Washington.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-12 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


DRY PEAS AND LENTILS: Production of dry edible peas (yellow and green) in

Idaho and Washington is estimated at 3.31 million cwt
(150 thousand metric tons) in 1986. Harvest area is set at 187 thousand acres
{75.7 thousand hectares). The average yield is estimated at 1769 pounds per
acre.

Austrian winter peas in Idaho and Oregon were harvested from 31.5 thousand
acres (12.8 thousand hectares), producing 450 thousand cwt (20.4 thousand
metric tons).

Lentils in Idaho and Washington were produced on 167 thousand acres (67.6
tousand hectares), yielding a total of 2.01 million cwt (91.1 thousand metric
ons).

FEI IC IOI TIO TO TOI TIA I IA TI III IO I III SI AAI AS IS.

* Estimates for dry peas and lentils were resumed starting with the *
* 1986 crop. The majority of peas and lentils are grown in Idaho *
* and Washington. Austrian winter peas are produced mainly in *
* Idaho and Oregon. *
REIKI IRI RIK IR IR IRE IKII RIKER REIKI KIKI K RIKI KIRKE KIKI KITA IEIHARIK

WINTER POTATOES, FINAL 1986 ESTIMATES: California and Florida potatoes,

harvested during the winter seasons,
totaled 2.99 million cwt (736 thousand metric tons}, up 17 percent from 1985.
Area for harvest, at 12.3 thousand acres (4980 hectares), dropped 7 percent
but higher yields, averaging 243 cwt per acre, more than compensated, leading
to the higher production.

TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 1.22 billion pounds (551

thousand metric tons), down fractionally from the September 1
forecast, 20 percent below last year’s production and is the smallest crop
since 1936. The lower production from a year ago is the combined result of an
11 percent decrease in acres for harvest and lower yields. An average yield of
1978 pounds per acre is expected compared with 2196 pounds in 1985.

The North Carolina flue-cured harvest is lagging in the Old and Middle
belts but about on schedule in the Eastern and border belts. Progress in
harvesting burley was about average but slightly behind a year ago. All North
Carolina tobacco production is expected to be 16 percent below tast year.

Kentucky's growers expect to harvest 25 percent less tobacco than a year
ago. As the month ended, harvest was nearing completion. The crop appears to
be curing well. Overall quality is good.

Tennessee's prospective crop declined 3 percent from the September 1 fore-
cast. Expected production is 29 percent betow 1985.

South Carolina tobacco harvest was complete by the end of September.
Sales were active during September with quality about steady.

Outlook for the Virginia crop improved during September. The production
forecast is up 5 percent from September 1 but is 18 percent below the 1985
crop.

SUGARBEETS: Sugarbeet production is forecast at 25.0 million tons (22.7 mil-

lion metric tons), down 2 percent from the September 1! forecast
but up 11 percent from last year‘s production. The decline from September 1|
primarily reflects lowered prospects in Michigan as a result of major flooding.
The increase from a year ago reflects a 10 percent increase in the acreage for
harvest.

The Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota has been wet the past
month and a half. However, harvest progress is ahead of average.

California harvest was underway in all areas on October 1. Virus yellows

were affecting some yields and mild temperatures reduced sugar content in some
beets.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-10 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

PRODUCTION
s 1985 : 1986 1984 : 1985 “y986
2 BUSHELS 1, 7000 BUSHELS
ALA 3 39.0 32.0 26.0 14,820 12,800 5,720
ARIZ : 90.0 90.0 94.0 5,580 5,940 4,512
ARK 2 44.0 32.0 41.0 61,600 18,240 31,980
CALIF : 76.0 82.0 75.0 52,440 61,500 45,000
COLO : 34.5 39.0 32.0 110,400 134,550 92,800
DEL : 41.0 48.0 36.0 2,009 2,064 1,224
FLA t/s 33.0 31.0 4,290 3,100
GA 2 35.0 31.0 28.0 31,150 25,575 15,400
IDAHO : 63.0 53.0 62.0 56,700 46,110 52,700
ILL : 44.0 49.0 44.0 70,400 36,750 36,080
IND : 46.0 53.0 43.0 48,300 37,100 30,100
tOWA 3 36.0 48.0 28.0 3,600 5,376 1,680
KANS 3 38.5 38.0 33.0 431,200 433,200 336,600
KY 2 38.0 34.0 33.0 19,000 10,540 8,910
LA : 41.0 34.0 35.0 13,120 7,140 7,350
MD : 43.0 49.0 42.0 6,020 6,517 5,880
MICH : 57.0 60.0 45.0 45,600 45,000 30,600
MINN : 43.0 37.0 33.0 15,480 10,360 4,290
MISS z 38.0 31.0 31.0 25,080 9,300 6,200
MO : 41.0 39.0 33.0 84,050 49,920 18,810
MONT 3 27.0 16.0 33.0 66,960 22,400 66,000
NEBR : 36.0 39.0 38.0 81,000 89,700 76,000
NEV 3 80.0 80.0 85.0 640 720 765
NJ : 43.0 52.0 43.0 1,677 1,924 1,290
N MEX 3 26.0 36.0 22.0 11,960 20,520 10,120
NY 3 46.0 58.0 52.0 7,820 8,410 8,060
NC 3 43.0 29.0 31.0 26,660 22,040 14,260
N DAK : 40.0 35.0 29.0 22,000 15,750 13,920
OHIO 3 44.0 62.0 46.0 48,400 58,900 48,300
OKLA : 36.0 30.0 29.0 190,800 165,000 150,800
OREG 2 63.0 54.0 57.0 66,150 51,840 51,300
PA : 38.0 48.0 44.0 8,360 10,080 9,680
sc 2 38.0 29.0 25.0 14,440 12,470 7,500
S DAK 3 36.0 29.0 32.0 61,200 44,080 56,960
TENN 3 40.0 32.0 33.0 21,400 8,000 10,725
TEX g 30.0 32.0 25.0 150,000 187,200 120,000
UTAH 3 33.0 32.0 32.0 6,435 7,040 7,200
vA 3 45.0 37.0 41.0 12,375 10,545 6,970
WASH : 62.0 48.0 49.0 148,800 115,200 102,900
WeVA : 40.0 43.0 44.0 400 344 396
Wis 56.0 58.0 57.0 8,960 8,120 7,410
WYO : 28.0 22.0 33.0 7,280 5,060 8,250
us : 40.0 38. 1 35.2 2,060,266 1,827,615 1,517,742

Vv ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1985.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-15 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


IDAHO 400 500
MINN 2,200 2,450
MONT 2,100 3,000
NEV 18 W7
N DAK 5,450 5,850
OREG 70 10
S DAK 1,900 2,230
UTAH 39 44
WASH 220 300
WIS 20 20
WYO 25 21
US 12,517 14,616

60
480
2,850
2,700
16
6,300
120
2,100
40
320
20

29
15,035

70 72
380 480
2,160 2,370
1,950 2,400
16 15
5,400 5,730
65 105
1,870 2,150
36 40

210 290

7 7

22 18
12,196 13,687

BUSHELS
COLO : 66.0 66.0
IDAHO =: 65.0 54.0
MINN > 48.0 55.0
MONT : 17.5 11.0
NEV : 75.0 70.0
N DAK : 34.0 37.0
OREG 2: 43.0 40.0
S DAK : 33.0 30.0
UTAH : 45.0 40.0
WASH : 55.0 45.0
WIS > 40.0 40.0
WYO : 36.0 26.0
US > 35.3 35.4

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986

66.0
57.0
37.0
27.0
70.0
31.0
44.0
25.0
40.0
43.0
35.0
35.0
32.0

4,620
24,700
103,680
34,125
1,200
183,600
2,795
61,710
1,620
11,550
680

792
431,072

1,000 BUSHELS

4,752
25,920
130,350
26,400
1,050
212,010
4,200
64,500
1,600
13,050
680

3,630
26,220
102,675
67,500
980
192,200
5,060
51,250
1,520
13,330
630
980
465,975

A-17 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


SMALL GRAINS - ANNUAL SUMMARY
AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED, UNITED STATES

(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP Sewn ewn nn nnn nnn nn nn nnn nnn nen nnn nn nen nnn nn enn seen nnn ener nnn s enone

: 1984 =: 1985 : 1986 : 1984 1985 1986
. Do HECTARES = =SOSs*=~=C~*~=“CS~*~*~TM~S~S~S~S~S
OATS + 5,023,820 5,364,170 5,952,780 3,303,480 3,309,150 2,827,570
BARLEY : 478387880 5,324,100 542747320 4,545,070 4,695,620 4,850,210

ALL WHEAT : 32,056,710 30,584,450 29,070,500 27,085,100 26,197,200 24,476,870
WINTER : 25,665,040 23,371,660 21,824,930 20,846,800 19,406,100 17,448,210

DURUM : 1,326,170 1,297,840 1,161,060 1,302,700 1,252,110 1,135,160
OTH SPRING: 5,065,500 5,914,950 6,084,510 4,935,600 5,538,990 5,893,500
RYE : 1,202,330 1,037,220 956,690 397,000 290,160 267,100

YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES
(METRIC UNITS)
: H YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION
CROP SNe ee tend

: METRIC TONS
OATS : 1.97 6,875,170 (7,559,390 5,567,260
BARLEY : 2.87
ALL WHEAT : 2.61

2
2 2.69 13,046,130 12,875,840 13,060,040
2

WINTER 2 2.69 2.
2
2
1

28

74

252 2.31 70,618,260 66,000,540 56,517,800
56 2.37 56,071,250 49,739,530 41,306,170
45

38

DURUM : 2.16 . 2.23 2,815,150 3,062,020 2,529,870
OTH SPRING: 2.38 . 2.15 11,731,860 13,198,990 12,681,760
RYE : 2.08 81 1.70 824,600 524,200 454,480

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-3 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

Sept 27, 1986
= FAVORABLY ISSUED WEEKLY FAVORABLY!
F
TOO WET NX 2 ABNORMALLY
EXCESSIVELY NORMALLY. 7 ,
pen GIST SS WET MOIST, ty -
EXCESSIVEL
-AVORABLY
Moist” / {y EXCESSIVELY
DRY
XCESSIVE! ABLY
UDRY, 2 wets ‘ABNORMALLY
XCESSIVELY >
ABNORMALLY ‘SLIGHTLY
‘ABNORMALLY: mois Vf. PRY. ORY "ABNORMALLY
amacLy RRY > f — DRY.
RY
FAVORABLY
MOIST
SEVERELY

IcROP MOISTURE: : XEESSIVELY
logprers smoer TERM (uP To snore ¢ FEEE® :
[AS3OEMAL, DRYNESS ON WETNESS AYPECTINO AGRICULTURE, SLIGHTLY
HREEPOND RAPIDLY, CaN CHANGE CONSIDERABLY VEXE TO \. Eveney OUST
}WEEE, ano. txDiCatES ‘MORAAL CONDITIONS AT TRE BEGIR- gE .
[etsO" ax HKD OF THB GROWING SEASOH. ;
pens. APPLCARLE © MEasoarO Tak soar Teme. NS ABNORMATL'
lstison coors’ aim ‘Fumio cptuarioxs, "SS “7?
huturtaaroxs...4AY ROT BE APPLICAMLE TO GKAYTHATING AND SHALLOW EXCESSIVELY
lnoceap ceopa‘iuica amr CnasLt To EXrRicT THE DEEP Of SUGOIL Wl: RY
lrnca 4 S-FOOT PROFILE, O8 FOR COOL. SEASON CROPS GBONING WHEN TEMPERA
[TURES ARE AVERAGING BELOW ABOUT 55°F. IT IS NOT GENERALLY INDICATIVE VERELY
[Ser Loa, Ta Caras. Trans} DaOGont O& WHT SPELLS MUCH ANN DKDICTEO iz uvicok JT AORTA eAMERHCTITY had on petininery pert

DROUGHT SEVERITY
MODERATE _ (LONG TERM, PALMER)

f. Sept 27,1986
i. ISSUED TWICE A MONTH

iN

ESE MOIST.

TREME

a Severe es SEVERE

exiReme. : . EXTRE
ak
SEVERE

MQOERAT,

i

ay f JODERATE
MODERATI z No |

EVERE

=
[PROUGHT, SEVERITY INDEX (PALMER): DEDICTS, Po.
wornas YEA AMAL DRYNESS OR NETNESS: MODERATE
RESPONDS SLOWLY, CHANGES TITTLE. FROM WEEE TO VERT
JAND DEEP PERCOLATION, AS WELL AS BVAPOTRANSPIRATI

uses, , APPLICABLE IN MEASURING DIBRUPTIVE EYrECT® OF 4
lDRYszSS OR WETNESS ON WATER SENSETIVE BCONOMIES ;DESIGNATING. DIS

JASTER AREAS! OF DROUGHT OR NETNESS; AND REPLECTING THE GEERAL, LONG

rena eraTve OF WaTEn SUPPLIES In AQUITERS, RESERVOINS, AND STREAKS.

LIMITATIONS, 18 HOT GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SBORT TERY (TEN SEEKS)
StaTus OF DROUGRT OR WETNESS SUCH

AS. FREQUENTL' inary reports
FIELD OPERATIONS (THIB IS INDECATED BY THE CHOP MOTSTURE TEER) LOWED OT MRICRTON MOWER FCILITY Seved on orl

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 “' Beg AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


ALL HAY

3 IND 3: : IND 3 2 : IND

ry 195 : 19866 : 1985 : 1986 : 1984 : 1985 3 1986

: 1, 000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS

t
ALA 2 700 500 2.20 1.50 1,360 1,540 750
ARIZ : 167 177 6.64 6.78 1,108 1,109 1,200
ARK : 992 950 1.83 1.73 1,559 1,819 1,645
CALIF 3 1,570 1,680 5.09 5.14 7,854 7,991 8,628
COLO 2 1,445 1,325 2.52 2.58 3,311 3,644 3,425
CONN 1/3: 90 ot 2.04 2.15 212 184 196
DEL 1/  ¢ 22 24 2.68 2.25 56 59 54
FLA 1/0: 240 240 2.60 2.60 696 624 624
GA : 495 420 2.50 1.50 1,320 1,238 630
IDAHO : 1,320 1,380 3.09 3.31 4,743 4,080 4,562
TLL + 1,160 1,100 3.51 3.33 3,880 4,072 3,664
tND : 795 820 3.13 3.09 2,344 2,485 2,531
(OWA : 2,150 2,360 3.32 3.62 7,850 7,133 8,551
KANS 2 2,710 2,600 2.58 2.71 5,899 6,999 7,040
kY t 1,850 1,855 2.22 1.98 3,346 4,100 3,67t
LA 1 320 300 2.32 2.60 816 741 779
MAINE 1/0 222 220 1.90 1,94 410 421 427
MD : 230 240 2.89 2.15 634 664 515
MASS 1/° ¢ 121 123 2.30 2.53 300 278 311
MICH 3 1,750 1,770 3.26 3.57 5,285 5,705 6,311
MINN : 2,725 2,950 2.94 3.16 8,440 8,003 9,320
MISS t 650 550 2.00 2.00 1,292 1,300 1,100
Mo Hy 3,400 3,450 1.92 1.79 6,338 6,513 6,192
MONT 3 1,950 2,250 1.42 2.08 3,780 2,760 4,675
NEBR : 3,300 3,150 2.05 2.13 7,695 6,755 6,705
NEV : 495 540 2.63 2.55 1,346 1,302 1,377
NH 1/  ¢ 88 85 2.32 2.27 201 204 193
NJ 1/3 118 120 2.82 2.64 317 333 317
N MEX 2 330 320 4.35 4.25 1,488 1,436 1,360
NY : 2,230 2,160 2.36 2.45 5,366 5,269 5,292
nc : 415 410 1.80 1.40 733 746 573
N DAK : 2,950 2,900 1.28 2.03 4,468 3,768 5,880
OHIO : 1,450 1,500 3.17 3.10 3,795 4,600 4,650
OKLA : 2,100 1,960 2.28 2.16 3,556 4,790 4,225
OREG : 1,080 1,160 2.77 2.87 3,112 2,989 3,328
PA t 1,990 2,000 2.66 2.72 5,082 5,302 5,440
Rt Woe 10 9 2.10 2.22 23 21 20
sc : 205 200 2.40 1.50 529 492 300
S DAK t 3,500 4,100 1.38 2.19 8,083 4,830 8,980
TENN : 1,620 1,380 1.95 1.18 2,678 3,156 1,628
TEX : 3,500 3,270 2.34 2.22 5,415 8,175 7,258
UTAK 2 605 615 3.44 3.42 2,160 2,084 2,104
YT wo: 445 435 2.13 2.14 938 950 930
vA : 1,008 1,063 1.63 1.18 1,816 1,644 1,253
WASH : 800 770 3.24 3.54 2,921 2,595 2,724
WYA 2 610 590 2.02 1.50 1,126 1,230 884
wes : 3,600 3,680 3.09 3.73 12,770 11,120 13,716
wyo s 1,030 1,110 1-66 1.87 2,195 1,706 2,071
us : 60,553 60,902 2.46 2.59 150,648 148, 959 158,009

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-26 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


SMALL GRAINS - ANNUAL SUMMARY
AREA PLANTED ANO HARVESTED, UNITED STATES
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP fewer wer teen nn en en nnn nen nn coer ne nn none ne ncnn scent nesenenennes
1985 1986 1984 1985 1986
2 1,000 ACRES

OATS : 12,414 13,255 14,708 8,163 8,177 6,987
BARLEY : 11,957 13,156 13,033 11,231 11,603 11,985
ALL WHEAT : 79,213 75,575 71,834 66,928 64,734 60, 483
WINTER : 63,419 57,752 53,930 51,513 47,953 43,115
DURUM : 3,277 3,207 2,869 3,219 3,094 2,805
OTH SPRING > 12,517 14,616 15,035 12,196 13,687 14,563
RYE 2: 2,971 2,563 2,364 981 717 660

YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

: YIELD PER ACRE

PRODUCTION

OATS BU : $8.0
BARLEY “3 53.4
ALL WHEAT " —: 38.8
WINTER " 40.0
DURUM " 32.1
OTH SPRING " 35.3
RYE “ 33.1

63.7 54.9 473,661 520,800 383,553
51.0 50.0 599,204 591,383 599,843
37.5 34.3 2,594,777 2,425,105 2,076,674
38.1 35.2 2,060,266 1,827,615 1,517,742
36.4 33.1 103,439 112,510 ~=—«92,,957
35.4 32.0 + 431,072 484,980 +: 465,975
28.8 = 2741 323463 20,637 17,892

APPROVED:

Kina € Ls

SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD:
Charles £E. Caudill, Chairperson,

L. Duane Jewel),

Rich D. Allen,
Robert 1. Addison,
Douglas C. Bond,
Arvin R. Budge,
William N. Dowdy,
Robert L. Freie,
Craig M. Hayes,
Samuel J. Hundley,
Doyte C. Johnson,
Gary A. Krull,
Lawrence H. Pope,
Jack L. Rutz,
Larry E. Snipes,

Secretary,
John D0. Witzig,
David J. Aune,
James E. Brewster,
William C. Dobbs,
S. Radley Edwards,
William G. Hamlin,
Phillip R. H. Hardy,
Clifton D. James,
Maurice £. Johnson,
Gary A. Nelson,
Darwin €. Ransom,
Vaughn L. Siegenthaler,
David D. Williamson,

A-2 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


TEMPLES: Florida's temple forecast is 3.60 million boxes (147 thousand metric
tons), up 22 percent from Yast season and 11 percent higher than

1984-85,

FLORIDA CITRUS: Citrus groves were in very good condition through most of

September. Soil moisture has been adequate in all areas due
to good summer rains. Most of the summer's new foliage has now hardened up
and turned darker green. New crop fruit is progressing very well with good
fruit sizes. The first grapefruit of the 1986-87 season was picked around
September 10 and shipped the 13th. During the last two weeks of September,
fresh fruit packing houses shipped the first Navels, Hamlins, K-early citrus,
and Robinson tangerines for the new season. Caretakers have been very active
cutting down cover crops that have grown abundantly during the summer months.
Some growers are applying fall fertilizers and sprays.

TEXAS CITRUS: Texas citrus production continues to increase from post-freeze

levels. Fruit sets are varied; however, most groves have a good
set. Grapefruit sizes are above normal with oranges sizing about average.
Bird damage has been high in many groves. Harvest of early oranges was
underway on a small scale by late September, with grapefruit harvest to follow
n October.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-15 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


GRAPES

: PRODUCTION

TABLE TYPE
CALIF 475,000 580,000 550,000
WINE TYPE
CALIF : 1,900,000 2,140,000 2,000,000
RAISIN TYPE 2/ 3/:
CALIF : 2,295,000 2,483,000 1,900,000
ALL
ARIZ 14,000 18,500 24,000
ARK 9,000 8,000 6,000
CALIF 4,670,000 5,203,000 4,450,000
GA 2,700 2,100 2,000
MICH 49,000 51,000 35,000
Mo 3,100 900 2,300
NY 198,000 146,000 165,000
NC 5,900 1,500 2,500
OHIO 11,200 7,000 10,000
PA 60,000 50,000 55,000
sc 2,500 600 700
WASH 168,500 116,100 455,000
us 5,193,900 5,604,700 4,907,500

WV INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(TONS): U $ 1984-25,500; 1985-100.

2/ FRESH BASIS,

3/ EXCLUDES PRODUCTION FROM APPROXIMATELY 50,000 ACRES OF THOMPSON
SEEDLESS VINEYARDS IN THE VOLUNTARY RAISIN DIVERSION
PROGRAM FOR 1986.

4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PRUNES AND PLUMS

PRODUCTION

TOTAL 1/

1984

PRUNES (DRIED BASIS)
CALI

148,000 139,000

PRUNES AND PLUMS
IDAHO 7,000 4,500
12,000 11,000
15,000 25,000
18,000 10,200
52,000 50,700

V INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLO
(TONS): OREG 1984-1,000; 1985-4,000.

FILBERTS

7 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-34 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


With the exception of a few late planted fields being frost damaged, the
Sunflower crop in the northern States has been in good condition since
Planting. Crop maturity was slowed by cool, rainy weather, Harvest, although
late, is now getting underway. In North Dakota, bracts were yellow or brown
on 87 percent of the crop on September 28, compared with 94 percent average.
In South Dakota, 36 percent of the crop was mature at the end of September,
compared with the average of 71 percent.

U.S. COTTON PRODUCTION

COTTON: All cotton production is forecast at 10.0 million bales, a decrease

of 5 percent from September 1 and 26 percent below the 1985 crop.
The Upland production forecast is for 9.81 million bales and American-Pima
production is expected to total 194 thousand bales. Total area for harvest
is estimated at 8.91 million acres (3.61 million hectares), down 13 percent
from last year. Yields are expected to average 539 pounds per harvested acre,
down 91 pounds per acre from 1985.

In Texas and Oklahoma, Upland production is forecast at 3.18 million
bales, down 24 percent from last year and down 9 percent from the September 1
forecast. Heavy rains and limited sunshine has delayed normal crop progress,

and has more than offset the beneficial effects from rains received in late
ugust.

Producers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
and Tennessee) expect to harvest 2.97 million bales, 20 percent below last
year and 5 percent below the September 1 forecast. Continued dry conditions
have caused rapid advancement in maturity and harvest is considerably ahead of
normal.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 2.96 million bales of Upland cotton, down 28 percent from
last year but unchanged from September 1. Boll rot and pest problems have
lowered early season expectations.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 B-8 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA



ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

+ AREA HARVESTED +

CROP eon eeeee =a.
AND (MD or + IND 1ND
STATE ® 1985 + 1986 1
: 1,000 ACRES POUXDS 1,000 CWT
LARGE LIMA:
CALIF : 43.0 17.0 2,120 2,200 648 oz 374
BABY LIMA :
CALIF 3 26.0 30.0 2,460 2,400 546 640 720
OTHER
a CALIF 104.0 108.0 1,640 1,860 1,914 2,009
LL
CALIF 173.0 2,003 2,002 34466 3,103
COLO 220.0 1,340 1,260 2,948 2,772
1DAHO 118.0 1,700 1,850 2,006 2,461
KANS 16.0 1,700 1,650 272 330
MICH 410.0 1,320 1,200 Satz 3,000
MINN 62.0 1,400 1,500 868 915
MONT 3.0 1,900 1,900 57 51
NEBR 146.0 1,850 1,900 2,701 3,895
NY 33.0 900 1,250 375
N_DAK 237.0 1,270 1,500 4,125
UTAH 8.4 480 550 48
WASH 33.0 2,150 2,300 644
wro 27.0 1,780
us 1,486.4

1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

WINTER POTATOES

AREA HARVESTED

1986 1/
1,000 ACRES

PRODUCTION
1985 : 1986 t/

1,000 CWT

290 1,404 1,479
210 1,287 4,512

2,691

: PLANTED ©: ~—s-HARVESTED
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CHT
IDAHO 29.0 29.9 2,450 421
ORES 30 215 13150 29
us 32.0 3115 14429 450

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-29 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA


ALL WHEAT: YIELD AND PRODUCTION

3 BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

’
ALA : 39.0 32.0 26.0 14,820 12,800
ARIZ : 90.0 87.5 90.5 12,780 9,804
ARK : 44.0 32.0 41.0 61,600 18,240
CALIF : 78.9 83.0 76.3 61,840 68,860
COLO 3 35.2 39.6 32.6 115,020 139,302
DEL 3 41.0 48.0 36.0 2,009 2,064
FLA 1/s 33.0 31.0 4,290
GA 2 35.0 31.0 28.0 31,150 25,575
IDAHO : 63.6 53.4 60.2 81,400 72,030
TLL 3 44.0 49.0 44.0 70,400 36,750
IND 2 46.0 53.0 43.0 48,300 37,100
1OWA 2 36.0 48.0 28.0 3,600 5,376
KANS : 38.5 38.0 33.0 431,200 433,200
KY : 38.0 34.0 33.0 19,000 10,540
LA 3 41.0 34.0 35.0 13,120 7,140
MD : 43.0 49.0 42.0 6,020 6,517
MICH z 57.0 60.0 45.0 45,600 45,000
MINN 3 47.3 53.1 36.8 120,711 142,426
MISS 3 38.0 31.0 314.0 25,080 9,300
Mo : 41.0 39.0 33.0 84,050 49,920
MONT 3 22.6 12.7 29.5 104,655 50,240
NEBR 2 36.0 39.0 38.0 81,000 89,700
NEV 2 76.7 73.8 75.9 1,640 1,770
NJ a 43.0 52.0 43.0 1,677 1,924
N MEX 3 26.0 36.0 22.0 11,960 20,520
NY z 46.0 58.0 52.0 7,820 8,410
ne 3 43.0 29.0 31.0 26,660 22,040
N DAK : 32.8 36.4 30.9 284,190 323,255
OHIO : 44.0 62.0 46.0 48,400 58,900
OKLA 3 36.0 30.0 29.0 190,800 165,000
OREG 3 61.8 52.6 55.5 68,945 56,040
PA : 38.0 48.0 44.0 8,360 10,080
sc 3 38.0 29.0 25.0 14,440 12,470
S DAK : 111,215
TENN : 8,000
TEX z 187,200
UTAH 3 8,640
vA : 10,545
WASH 2 128,250
WeVA 2 344

t 8,800

1/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1985 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-13 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA



INDEX

BARLEY - ANNUAL .....seeeeeee
OATS - ANNUAL .
RYE - ANNUAL .......
US SUMMARY - ANNUAL .
WHEAT, ALL ~ ANNUAL ....

WHEAT, BY CLASSES - ANNUAL
WHEAT, DURUM - ANNUAL .....
WHEAT, OTHER SPRING - ANNUAL
WHEAT, WINTER - ANNUAL .....000-
APPLES .ccecececseeoes
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE
CITRUS FRUIT ..
CORN FOR GRAIN
COTTON ...-.eeeeeees
COTTONSEED ......0--
CROP MOISTURE MAPS .
FILBERTS «2,-2.0
GRAPES .....
HAY, ALL ....eees oe ceececcees
HAY, ALFALFA & ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY .
HAY, OTHER ....
HOPS ...eeeee
INDEX NUMBERS .
LENTILS ....
PAPAYAS .cecccccecececscvoecs
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION .
PEANUTS FOR NUTS ...
PEAS, AUSTRIAN WINTE!
PEAS, DRY EDIBLE ...
PECANS ...eeeee
POTATOES ......
PRUNES, DRIED ...
PRUNES AND PLUMS ...
RELIABILITY STATEMENT
RICE ...
SORGHUM
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS .
SUGARBEETS ......eeeee
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED
SUNFLOWER .....eeeeeee
TOBACCO BY STATES ..

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CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 8~16 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA

@U,S.GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE :1986-180-915:40652/nass.


DURUM WHEAT

2 AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED
STATE
ARIZ 82 47 49 80 46 48
CALIF 100 85 80 94 80 75
MINN 35 35 35 33 33 34
MONT 215 200 140 210 160 134
N DAK 2,750 2,750 2,500 2,710 2,690 2,450
S DAK 95 90 65 92 85 64
US 3 3,277 3,207 2,869 3,219 3,094 2,805

3 BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ARIZ : 90.0 84.0 7,200 3,864 4,176
CALIF : 100.0 92.0 9,400 7,360 6,525
: §2.0 1,551 1,716 1,292
9.0 3,570 1,440 3,350
35.5 78,590 95,495 75,950
31.0 3,128 2,635 1,664
36.4 103,439 112,510 92,957

WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES 1/

WINTER : SPRING
YEAR : SOFT : : HARD : : TOTAL
: RED: WHITE : RED DURUM : WHITE :

1,000 BUSHELS

1984 :_:1,250,597 531,370 278,299 408,801 103,439 22,271 2,594,777
1985: : 1,230,075 368,417 229,123 460,205 112,510 24,775 2,425,105
1986 =: 1,019,123 287 ,922 210,697 439,909 92,957 26,066 2,076,674
1/ WHEAT CLASS ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON VARIETY ACREAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED
AT 5-YEAR INTERVALS FOR ALL WHEAT PRODUCING STATES. THE 5-YEAR VARIETAL
SURVEY DATA ARE ADJUSTED ANNUALLY AS OTHER VARIETY SURVEY INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1986 A-16 AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD, NASS, USDA