DURUM WHEAT

STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED t YIELO : PROOUCTION
1 + + IND ¢ t FIND ¢ ' t TND
2 1976 + 1977 4 1978: 1976 + 1977 t 1978 ¢ 1976 4977 1978
z Ts000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
t
ARIZ U/t 319 es on 75.0 72.0 239925 69120
CALIF 1/% Bo 28 115 8069 7540 69400 29100
MINN t 93 B2 95 29.5 34.5 29746 29829
MONT ' 295 220 290 29.0 22.0 89555 49840
N MEX 2/% 17 4 70.0 74.0 19190 296
N DAK of 39620 29470 39200 25.0 24.5 909500 609515 962000
S OAK : 160 136 185 10.0 24.0 19600 39264 39700
us Hi 41586 39025 3976 2904 2604 1349914 799964 1251665

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD

2/ BEGINNING 1978 INCLUDED IN WINTER WHEAT.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT

FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

STATE AREA HARVESTED t YIELD t PRODUCTION

: + a IND ¢ 7 * IND ¢ z 7 IND

A 1976 3 19773 1978 + 1976 1 1977 + 1978 ¢ 1976 ¢ 1977 3 1978

: T9000 ACRES BUSHELS T+000 BUSHELS
colo 17: 40 25 32 4066 40.0 4000 19600 29000 19280
Toako¢ 540 360 435 54.0 51.0 5640 299160 189360 245360
MINN + 39800 39140 20610 32.5 4000 3400 = 1239500 = 1254600 889740
MONT z 29040 20040 14850 2965 22.0 30.0 600180 44 98BY 559500
NEV i/t 13 12 15 3940 50.0 4500 207 600 675
NvaK 4 79900 61680 6s100 rs 2560 29.4 1939550 1674000 = 1764900
OREG 1/2 113 70 130 3740 Baud 366 4181 25380 44680
SUAK ot 19860 29200 29170 11.0 23.5 2040 209460 91+700 434400
UTAn 145 42 a4 23 3lev 24.0 3260 19302 576 736
WASH : 315 185 310 36.0 33.0 38.0 119340 69105 116760
wIS ist e 15 16 30.0 33.0 31.0 870 495 434
WYO ss 35 el 2 25.0 20.0 2540 875 420 525
us t 169727 149772 13,710 26.8 28.4 2948 4479525 4190116 4094010

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAS]¢

WHEAT: PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES
WINTER z SPRING. A

YEAR > HARD =~ SOFT = > HARD Hi = TOTAL
RED g ReD. WHITE? ey DURUM} WRITE}

1975
1976
1977
1978

058,063 326,208

975,840 336,555

993,

072 © 341,334

842,484 199,408

T,000 BUSHELS

256,125 326,594
247,528 411,127
192,307 397,479
201,793 376,144

123,362 32,107 2,122,459
134,914 36,398 2,142,362
79,964 21,637 2,025,793
125,665 32,866 1,778,360

T/ INDICATED OCT T, 1978.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


POTATOES: TYPES AND VARIETIES GROWN ~ 1978

The Economics, Statistics and Cooperatives Service conducts potato objective yield surveys in 11
fall producing States which in 1977 represented 92 percent of the U. S. fall potato production. All
producing areas of each State are represented in the sample in proportion to the acreage of potatoes.
Variety and type information in these tables is calculated from data reported for farms which were
selected for objective yield sampling. These data are intended to provide additional current infor-
mation about the 1978 crop and are not designated as official estimates of the Crop Reporting Board.

FALL POTATOES: PERCENT OF ACREAGE PLANTED BY TYPE OF POTATOES,
SELECTED STATES, 1978 CROP 1/

POTATO TYPES

STATE - -

REDS t WHITES : RUSSETS TOTAL

PERCENT

COLO 16.9 4.8 78.3 100.0
IDAHO 7 99.3 100.0
MAINE 72.8 27.2 100.0
MICH 1? 55.5 42.8 100.0
MINN 23.8 50.0 26.2 100.0
NY 8 97.6 1.6 100.0
N_DAK 23.6 66.9 9.5 100.0
OREG 2.0 4.0 94.0 100.0
PA V1 97.8 im 100.0
WASH 1.0 3.4 95.6 100.0
WIS 11.6 32.7 55.7 100.0
11 STATE TOTAL 5.8 30.3 63.9 100.0
‘7 REPORTED BY FARMS SELECTED FOR OBJECTIVE YIELD SAMPLING.

FALL POTATOES: PERCENT OF MAJOR VARIETIES PLANTED,

SELECTED STATES, 1978 CROP 1/
FIRST : THIRD : Fi
STATE S i SECOND : ‘OURTH
VARIETY SPERCENT* VARIETY SPERCEN VARIETY — ?ERCENT? VARIETY =PERCENT

COLO: RUSSET BURBANK 46.8: CENTENNIAL 146 27.9: REO McCLURE 17.7
IDAHO: RUSSET BURBANK 97.9: :
MAINE —: SUPERTOR 26.2: KATAKOIN 22.7 ; RUSSET BURBANK 23.3:
MICH — : RUSSET BURBANK 37.4; MONONA 11.8: NORCHIP 9.5 : SEBAGO 9.1
MINN: NORCHIP 31.9: RUSSET BURBANK 19.9: KENNEBEC 16.9 :
NY : KATAHOIN 32.6 : SUPERIOR 21.3: NORCHIP 4.8:
N DAK: NORCHIP 28.4: KENNEBEC 4.7 NORLAND 13.2: PONTIAC 10.7
OREG —: RUSSET BURBANK 82.1 : NORGOLD RUSSET 9.4 :
PA + KATAHDIN 33.3. : NORCHIP 26.4 : KENNEBEC 17.1: SUPERIOR 11.4
WASH —: RUSSET BURBANK 80.4: NORGOLD RUSSET 15.0 :
WIS : RUSSET BURBANK 41.3 : SUPERIOR 13.8 NORGOLD RUSSET 10.6 =

7 REPORTED BY FARMS SELECTED FOR OBJECTIVE YIELD SAPPLING.
FALL POTATOES - PERCENT HARVESTED TO OCTOBER 1, 1978

7 HARVESTED 7 HARVESTED
STATE : 10 oct 1 STATE : TO oct 1
PERCENT

CALIF : 5 N DAK : 50
couo : 65 onto : 50
CONN : 75 ORES 45
TOAHO : 18 PA 70
IND : 40 RI 75
MAINE : 75 SOAK 45
MASS, : 75 UTAH 20
MICH : 50 \T 75
MINN Z 55 WASH 40
MONT : 5 WIS 55
NEBR : 40 WYO 60
NEV : 10
NY = LONG ISLAND z 50 :

> UPSTATE : 65 AVERAGE : 40

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-21 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: ae coc 1 pasture and range feed condition averaged 77 percent for the
contiguous States. This is one point above a i
below the 1967-76 average for this date. , year ago but 1 point

Good to excellent pasture conditions continued in the Far West and most of the northern
half of the Nation. Very poor to fair conditions were reported in the southern half from
Arizona to the Atlantic Coast. Drought conditions still plague portions of Colorado, Texas
Oklahoma, and Kansas. , ,

APPLES: The final forecast of the Nation's 1978 apple crop is placed at 7,38 billion pounds

(3.35 million metric tons). This is a slight improvement from the forecast as of August
1, is 11 percent above last season's total, and 14 percent higher than the freeze-damaged 1976
crop. Expectations increased during August and September in the West and Central regions, and
were virtually unchanged in the East.

The Eastern States expect production to total 2.95 billion pounds, nearly the same as August
1, but stiTT well ahead of the last two seasons. In New England, lack of rain during the growing
season contributed to smaller sizes although color and quality are good. Picking is running
later than normal, New York harvest is about finished for soft varieties and just beginning on
later varieties. Quality of fruit is excellent and harvest weather has been ideal. Apple color
is good and sizes on later varieties improved with late August rains. Virginia harvest is about
one-half complete despite a late start. Above normal temperatures have slowed coloring of red
varieties. Picking is also in full swing in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, although behind nor-
mal by up to two weeks. Shortage of rain in Pennsylvania reduced apple sizes but color and qual-
ity are good,

In the Central States, output is now forecast at 1.27 billion pounds, up 1 percent from
August 1 and more than one-fourth higher than the 1977 total. In Michigan, harvest is well under-
way with good size and color on all varieties except the McIntosh. Picking of the good quality
Ohio crop is about two weeks late; sizes are running less than hoped for because of below normal
rainfall. Harvest in Illinois and Indiana is about half over. Quality and sizes are variable in
Illinois and some localized hail damage was reported.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 3.16 billion pounds, a 1 percent improvement
from August 1 and 8 percent ahead of last season. In Washington, the Nation's leading producer,
August and September weather was ideal for sizing and coloring. Picking began in early September
and was well underway by mid-month. California prospects improved during the period although
some coastal fruit was sunburned by recent hot weather. Harvest of Oregon's Milton-Freewater
crop is complete and Hood River operations are well along. Picking in Idaho is progressing well
with good sizes; coloring improved with recent cooler weather.

GRAPES: The final forecast of the season, as of October I, places the 1978 U.S. grape crop at
4.32 million tons (3.92 million metric tons). This is 6 percent below the record ex-
pectations of a month ago, but slightly above last season's output.

The California crop is now forecast at 3.80 million tons compared with the 4.10 million ex-
pected a month ago, and is 5 percent below 1977. Damaging rains early in September followed by
hot weather has reduced the prospective production. Output of raisin varieties is now set at
1.75 million tons; this includes all grapes for harvest as well as those laid for raisin produc-
tion. This forecast is off 5 percent from last month and is 10 percent under last year's total.
The portion of the crop to be used for raisins is in poor condition and an abnormal amount will
be diverted to other processing outlets. Wine varieties, at 1.70 million tons, also suffered
from weather damage, although expectations remain above last year. Bunch rot and berry dehydra-
tion took their toll and sugar content in white varieties is below normal; sugars in the reds,
however, are excellent. Table grape expectations have been reduced to 350 thousand tons.
Berries are not of good holding quality because of thin skins and bunch rot, although eating
quality remains good.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 An14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


ALL HAY

STATE t AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELD i PRODUCTION

z 3 7 TND ¢ 7 7 IND ¢ z t TNO

3 1970 3 1977 3 1978 $1976 ? 1977 31978 ¢ 1976 + 1977 3 1978

: 22000 ACRES TONS: 19000 TONS

:
ALA : 650 630 650 1670 1.70 19105 1s008 14105
ARIZ z 245 250 244 6430 5.88 19546 19461 19434
ARK : 740 778 785 1.68 1.70 19241 19404 19333
CALIF = ¢ 19630 15670 14610 4663 4046 79554 79729 79175
COLO 19410 19345 14400 2e12 2.03 21991 29793 29840
CONN I/ ¢ 68 83 b1 1.91 1.95 168 161 156
O&L Wi: 22 23 2200 e427 2.23 50 47 49
FLA Wt 219 226 226 1.95 1.95 427 452 441
GA + 450 470 475 2430 2.35 19935 752 19116
IDAHO 19310 15366 19379 3621 3459 4201 49459 41948
TL 5 19220 19230 14250 2683 2.99 39458 30708 39732
IND + 900 895 910 2.39 2.55 29150 29384 29325
Towa t 29360 29250 24300 2682 3614 676546 79225 79226
KANS : 29275 29290 24320 1.99 2603 49535 59294 49706
KY : 19528 19568 15600 1.96 1.98 29988 39093 30174
La ' 375 375 360 1.91 1.95 718 715 703
MAINE 1/¢ 212 214 21s 24046 1.659 433 340 342
MD : 246 243 250 2.39 250 589 536 624
MASS 1/t 121 17 114-2410 1.98 254 233 226
MICH : 14290 14300 14370 2.37 2443 39060 29855 39330
MINN : 39250 34140 39100 1.77 2.90 59765 89136 By976
MISS : 663 662 624 14670 1.75 19130 19172 14092
Mo s 39350 39455 34500 1.48 1.63 49948 59700 69405
MONT : 29210 29240 24350 1.80 1.84 39978 39907 41319
NEBR : 39800 39830 34800 1.57 1.84 $1953 71464 64993
NEV 3 460 420 455 2004 2.09 939 879 953
NH I/ ¢ 93 89 88 1.94 2.06 180 185 181
Nv Wt 122 120 12) Boas 2.57 298 306 311
NMEX f 293 301 302 3436 3.57 984 1924 1,078
NY t 25400 29350 29450 2.23 2013 50352 41639 5225
nc 1 350 350 360 1646 1.65 510 521 595
NOAK  f 39440 39140 34300 1616 1.67 39976 30229 59526
OHIO t 15540 14550 19590 2.31 2.56 39554 39558 49074
OKLA ' 19610 19775 14650 1.83 1.71 26947 39520 20820
OREG 1 14050 12030 14940 2434 2046 29459 20437 26557
Pa ' 19870 1,915 1,935 2619 2629 49095 39889 49425
Ri ye 9 8 @ = 200 2.00 18 15 16
sc : ais 220 222 = 2400 2.00 430 396 444
SOAK 3 45300 44500 41500 466 1.63 29860 69292 79320
TENN 5 19210 19225 14240 1652 1.654 16845 19620 16914
TEX 8 29150 29250 20355 2450 1.90 55370 41676 4475
UTAH : 580 584 SOL 314 2489 14820 19842 19710
vie 454 443 448 1.89 1.79 860 721 801
vA t 942 932 965 1.31 1.86 19235 15083 19830
WASH : 869 876 864 = 2B 2082 29446 29432 29497
woVA : 595 580 5380 1.41 1.62 838 830 938
WIS : 39980 49040 49020 2404 3614 89120 129002 129610
wo 3 19215 19145 15195 1.61 1.75 19955 19639 25097
us 1 609311 605493 619254 1.99 2627 1209006 1319057 1394159

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield surveys taken about
October 1. Some adjustments have been made in harvested acreages published previously. The
yield surveys included mailed reports from farmers for all crops and actual field observations
and measurements for corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat and some fruit crops. Farmers provided
appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops on their farms and for
their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot observations, counts and measure-
ments in a probability sample, These surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling type errors
that are common to all surveys. More importantly, the forecasts are subject to change due to wea-
ther during the remainder of the season and other factors that directly affect final production
but cannot be measured currently.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in this report, the
"Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is shown below for se-
lected crops. This is computed by expressing the deviations between the October 1 production
forecasts and the final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1958-77 twenty year period; the square root of this average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expect-
ed errors in the current forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that
factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years!
forecasts.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain forecast is 3.3
percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 6824 mil-
lion bushels wil? not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent or approxi-
mately 225 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the dif-
ference will not exceed 5.7 percent or approximately 389 million bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between
the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between
the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the 10 years have averaged 174 million
bushels, ranging from 16 million to 401 million bushels. During this 10-year period the October 1
forecast has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times.

RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

7 TEN YEAR RECORD OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
cROP AND ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST AND FINAL ESTIMATE
nite 750% CONFIDENCE QUANTITY NUMBER OF YEARS
PERCENT : LEVEL

* AVERAGE ‘SMALLEST ? LARGEST ? BELOW + ABOVE

FINAL: FINAL

“WILCTON

: MILLION” MILLION MILLION =

FEED GRAINS 1/ TON 2/ 2.6 4.5 9 : 5 1 10 6 4
CORN FOR GRAIN BU 3.3 5.7 389 174 16 401 6 4
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN BU 4.6 7.9 55 32 6 76 2 8
ALL WHEAT BU 1.3 2.2 39 14 1 4) 2 8

DURUM BU 5.3 9.1 VW 3 7 7 5 5

OTHER SPRING BU 3.2 5.5 22 5 0 13 6 4
RICE CWT 2.7 4.7 6 2 0O 6 6 4
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS BU 3.2 5.5 99 47 1 114 6 4
COTTON BALES 3, 5.3 9.1 990 494 34 1,273 3 7
FALL POTATOES CWT 4.0 6.9 22 10 2 2l 10 Q

17 CORN, SORGHUM, OATS AND BARLEY:
2/ UNIT'OF PRODUCTION IS IN METRIC TONS.
3/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


GRaPES

CROP AND STATE

PRODUCTION 1/

:
1 TOTAL ¥ TOTAL ¥ IND
3 1976 % 1977 t 1978
+ TONS
GRAPES TABLE TYPE :
CALIF t 4051000 4884000 350,000
GRAPES WINE TYPE 3
CALIF 3 193239000 14563000 1+7005000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE ORIED 2/3
CALIF + 283,000 2465300
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE NOT ORIED?
CALIF 1 976.000 8039000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE 1
CALIF 1 29250000 149359000 1,750,000
ALL GRAPES :
ARIZ aet 125400 11,000 136300
ARK 3st 69500 99000 79500
CALIF t 399781000 349869000 3,800,000
MICH t 14500 339000 659000
Mo Bet 19750 39850 49425
NJ ant 750 14100
NY : 185+000 1019000 1959000
NC ast 49580 49650 49700
OHIO aes 153000 79100 159500
Pa : 59,000 309000 529000
WASH ! 1159900 105600 1550000
OTHER STATES as ost 49950 49850 59100
us ' 493989330 492979750 4,317,525
1¢ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION ANO EXCESS CULLAGE
(TONS) $ US 1976-305+3504 (2939000 TONS FRESH
EQUIVALENT RAISIN TYPE IN CALIF LAIDy BUT NOT
HARVESTED DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER DAMAGE). 1977-19550.
2/ ORIED BASIS, 1 TON RAISINS IS EQUIVALENT TO 4.50 TONS
OF FRESH GRAPES FOR 1976 AND 4,56 FOR 1977.
3/ ESTIMATES FOX CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
4/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.
8/ GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA»
PRUNES AND PLUMS
CROP AND STATE H PRODUCTION 1/
t TOTAL t TOTAL t IND
t 1976 : 1977 3 1978
+ TONS
PRUNES AND PLUMS :
1OAHO : 74000 79000 74000
MICH : 160000 149000 23+000
ORES : 315000 26.000 159000
WASH : 239000 124000 201000
TOTAL t 774000 614000 659000
1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION aNO EXCESS CULLAGE
(TONS) tTOTAL 4 STATES, 1976-3,500, 1977-3,000.
FILBERTS
STATE A PRODUCTION
’ TOTAL 1 TOTAL ‘ Tau
4 1976 HA 1977 s 1978
t TONS
OREG : 69950 114400 119400
wash real 220 350 350
us 1 79170 116750 119750

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978

B-19

FROM EARLIER FORECAST«

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

STATE AREA HARVESTED ‘ YIELO a PROOUCTION

: t ? IND ¢ t IND? 7 IND

: 1976 # 1977 1/ 3 1978 t 1976 1977 1/3 1978 3 1976 31977 1/ 1978

¥ T5000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

4
ALA : 19170 1600 14950 24,0 21.0 2200 284080 335600 424900
ARK 1 4320 4600 4800 19,0 23.0 2200 825080 1059800 1059600
OEL ann 205 225 235 2400 24.0 2760 49920 S400 69345
Fla ast 253 327 400 26.0 2500 2660 645738 Bel7S 105400
Ga ' 870 1,090 19700 2365 2000 20.0 209445 219800 34,000
TLL ' 79560 89850 99200 33.0 38.0 34.0 2499480 3369300 322800
IND t 39280 39900 40100 34.0 3700 33.0 1119520 1445300 1355300
1OWA fy 69450 71080 75500 31.0 3565 36.0 1996950 2519340 270,000
KANS ' 86s 990 12430 15.0 2865 16.0 129975 269215 259740
ky ' 19070 15320 15450 27.0 3160 2660 285890 409920 379700
LA t 25250 268 29950 28,0 2365 635000 625980 709800
MD t 295 325 345 25.0 2700 7937S 89775 109695
MICH ' 56s 720 610 2005 3000 11583 219600 199440
MINN ' 39020 39770 4,000 2200 3565 669440 1339835 1284000
MISS t 39250 39650 35900 22.0 215 719500 789475 814900
cle} t 40200 4650 SsS00 2000 3200 841000 1489800 1545000
NEBR ' 960 15130 14270 20.0 3620 199600 409680 435180
Nv ase 138 177 185 2400 24.0 3e312 49246 4610
NY ast le 19 16 26.0 23.0 312 437 368
NC : 15120 19320 19600 22.0 2240 249640 299040 385400
N DAK 2/3 147 175 185 12.5 20.0 19838 39500 39865
OHIO t 25880 35380 39720 3340 3565 959040 1199990 1199040
OKLA 2/8 250 340 31s 2200 23.0 SeSo0 79820 60615
PA ere 50 67 67 29.0 3160 19450 29077 19876
sc 1 19190 19300 19460 18.0 20.5 210420 269650 29s200
S DAK 2/8 271 315 360 1720 3065 49607 99608 99720
TENN t 19800 29220 29420 22.5 2365 402500 529170 557660
TEX t 347 760 750 26.0 2665 99022 209140 175250
vA ? 398 440 440 20.9 1940 Bel59 89360 10+560
WIS = 2st 152 192 210 22.0 3540 26.0 39344 69720 59880
us : 494358 575612 635268 2661 3046 2863 192879560 1le761s755 19792+064

V/ REVISED. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

AREA PLANTED, SOYBEANS

STATE : 1977 1) 1977
ALA 1,650 4,730
ARK 4,650 1,150
DEL 230 185
FLA 334 ai
GA 1,250 1,450
TLL 8,900 180
IND 3,930 3,400
IOWA 7,100 360
XANS 1,020 3 70
KY 1,350 : 1,350
A 2,750 : 320
MD 330 : 2,320
MICH 730 : 800
MINN 3,800 : 450
MISS 3,750 : 200

: 58,760
T7 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978

B-5

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



RY EDIBLE YEANS vv

CROP AND STATE 1 AKEA HARVESTED A evo t PRODUCTION
f i TROt 7 ¥ IND 7 T TNO
f 1976 § 4977 1b 1978 | 1976 | 1977 1 49782 1976 1 __977 s+ _ 4978
7 TV000 ACRES POUNDS 19000 CHT
LARGE LIMA BEANS +
CaLir + 3540 3160 2960 19490-19690 19700 S22 523 493
BABY LIMA BEANS :
CAL. ' 21.0 22.0 1,800 24090 14850 378 460 463
BEANS OTHEW THAN LIMAS :
CAL + 123.0 113.0 19545 10719149543 14900 14943 20407
ORY EDIBLE BEANS t
CaLie tATS© 16669 1sS64 19763 14602 2800 2926 31363
COLO 1 185.0 1500 900 30 900 19665, 19245 19530
Gamo t 1590 1s670 14640 49700 26655, 2165 25601
KANS art 12.5 19200 19300 e200 150 162 186
MICH 2 54540 1s000 14150 14050 59450 59520 5+723
MINN are 42.0 867 19320 14450 366 396 580
MONT ant 920 14700 19600 1600 15a low M2
NEBR ¥ 12060 19650-14550 19600 14980 19550 16760
Ny 1 3760 19070 19100 14100 396 352 473
N DAK 13) a00 14050 islou 19112 15103 15243
UTAH ert 13.0 390 310 51 2 25
WASH : 2600 19800 455 333 486
Wyo 1 256 19700 450 380 493
OTHEN aft 768 9 105 50
us $ 1449963 1426269 4447065 14186 10290 19263174786 16 2BB_ 184575

As EXCLUDES BEANS GHOWN FOR GARDEN SEED,
2/ ESTIMATES FON CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARU FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
3/ ILLINOIS AND INDIANAS ESTIMATES U{SCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.

SWEETPOTATOES
STATE AREA HAWVESTED 1 YIELO 1 PRODUCTION
t T 7 ND + a ee 2) T TRO
4 _4y76 t _1977 11978 t 1976 § 1977: 1978: 1976 t1977 ft _—1978
¥ 1¥000 ACRES CHT 1800 cw
1
ALA 2 565 545 90 es 100 495 451
ARK : 165 168 18 76 9 a7 122
CALIF ot 766 65 15s 150 160 19178 1170
Ga ' 5.9 6.0 120 90 hho 708 495
La ' 2900 27.0 95, yu 95 26755 24430
40 t 166 Les 155 155 160 248 2an
MISS ot 90 9.0 90 a5 88 810 680
Ng t 243 a? iS 105 310 265 252
Nc 1 3340 3760 130 135 140 49290 49455
sc t 265 22 86 ot 95 215 200
TENN 1 2.9 248 105 100 490 305 280
TEX : 1065 aS 105 95, 7S 16103 903
va + 665 bel 1465, 125 140 963 700
vs e178 1185 le 110 M16 130632120395

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


COTTON

CROP

1 AREA HARVESTED t YIELO 4 PRODUCTION J.

AND i t 3 INO ¢ t > IND t 3 3 IND
STATE 1976 t 1977 ¢ 1978 1 1976 $1977 + 19783 1976 3 1977 8 1978
+ 14000 ACRES POUNDS 12000 BALES

COTTON» UPLAND
ALA t 420-0 395.0 330.0 399 337 400 349.0 277.0 275.0
ARIZ t 34040 515-0 $38.0 10178 997 19039 634.0 1907000 19165.0
ARK 1 95060 930.0 78040 392 534 433 776.0 1403540 70040
CALIF t  19120.0 18390.0 1945520 19064 964 782 2948200 2979000 2937060
FLA 3/1 61 366 S14 425 467 726 5.4 365
170.0 130.0 398 232 443 120.0
8 20 258 420 0 20
540.0 505.0 44 S83 470 49540
1+360.0 1515040 376 sél sol 19200.0
262.0 180.0 305 431 453 170.0
led 143 738 598 702 1.9
128.0 110.0 523 603 458 105.0
83.0 41.0 4Ao 305 410 35.0
520.0 55640 251 402 323 436. 370.0
153.0 100.0 438 342 480 109.0 100.0
30060 250.0 295 40T 403 255.0 210.0
6945020 6¥100.0 393 407 273 5946560 3947020
o? ol 480 194 460 06 3 el
232206.9 1249224,0 464 S19 424 10951666 14927720 109790.5

IMA
Wed 42.3 29.9 804 738 706 50.3 05.0 44.0
CALIF 37% ol 3 el 640 269 480 el 2 al
N MEX ¢ 6.3 943 11S 476 62) 417 602 1260 10.0
TEX : 8.0 22.5 28.0 444 747 480 Tes 3540 28.0
us : 4404 Thee 69.65 692 724 S67 64.0 122.2 8261
COTTON, ALL

Us 10091365 13927923 125293.5 465. 520 42510158026 14538962 10987266

1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED. 2/ 4g0-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAK CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 8-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


PECANS

CROP AND STATE 4 PRODUCTION
! TOTAL t TOTAL 3 TNO
x 1976 $ 1977, t 1976
+ Te000 POUNDS
PECANS IMPROVED ss
ALA ' 4+000 25%600 129000
ARK : 700 900 19300
FLA ' 14000 25300 14800
oA ' 439000 689000 824000
La ' 700 34500 49000
MISS : 14000 69500 69500
N MEX ' 119500 159000 15,000
NC art 15900 15100 1,900
OKLA t 800 14500 14000
sc $ 19700 14500 24000
TEX + 119000 121000 105000
us ’ 774300 1379900 1379500
PECANS NATIVE & SEEDLING
ALA t 14000 69400 34000
ARK 4 300 29100 39200
Fla t 1,500 39800 39000
GA ' 9+000 209000 234000
La 3 14300 274500 126000
MISS i S00 49500 34500
NC ast 900 900 1100
OKLA 3 14500 124000 95000
sc ’ 800 19500 25000
TEX : 94000 20+000 154000
us ' 25800 98s700 749800
ALL PECANS ry
ALA t 51000 32000 154000
ARK + 19000 39000 49500
FLA : 21500 6»100 49800
GA : 521000 884000 1054000
La : 29000 312000 164000
MISS : 19500 119000 105000
N MEX : 319500 159000 155000
NC ess 29800 22000 39000
OKLA ' 25300 134500 109000
sc : 25500 39000 41000
TEX : 209000 329000 251000
us t 103,100 2364600 2124300
1/ BUDDED»GRAFTEDsOR TOPWORKED VARIETIES.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAK CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIEK FORECAST+
PAPAYAS - HAWAII
AREA UTILIZED PRODUCTION
MONTH TOTAL_IN CROP. HARVESTED yi FORECAST
1977: ‘1978 1977: 1978 1977 ;__—*(1978 1978-1979
‘ACRES 1,000 POUNDS
AUG 3,050 3,135 2,150 2,100 6,322 5,475
SEP 3,065 3,174 2,265 2,087 5,502
oct 3,105 2,260 6,461 5,300
Nov 3,095 2,360 6,690 5,900
DEC 3,140 2,395 5,625 5,000
JAN 3,095 2,280 4,400
CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION JAN-SEP we
CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-20 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

STATE t AREA HARVESTED ul YIELD 2 PRODUCTION

: 3 n IND ¥ + IND t ' INO

t 1976 1 1977 3 1978 $1976 3 _ 1977 § 1978 § 1976 3 1977 4 1978

' 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

1
ALA ve 31 27 28 35.0 2760 3520 19085 729 980
ARIZ ' a 90 70 73.0 80.0 7860 62643 79200 59460
ARK t 310 252 200 50.0 52.0 560 159500 139104 114200
CALIF ' 210 132 190 71.0 7320 7240 149910 99636 13+680
COLO : 259 273 275 28.0 30.0 Se 89463 8+250
GA vt 45 24 45 43.0 37.0 12935 672 19665
Lost 67 64 65 59.0 63.0 39953 49096 49095
IND wv 21 15 16 67.0 69.0 19407 19170 19104
10wa 1/8 26 32 30 65.0 80.0 19690 29368 24400
KANS Hy 39950 4.050 45000 43.0 49.0 169850 = 2430000 = 1964000
KY vet 29 32 22 6000 55.0 19740 19824 15210
LA ve 28 20 16 35.0 31.0 980 660 496
MISS 1/t a 24 20 37.0 35.0 1sS517 768 700
MO t 660 840 800 6040 74.0 399600 619320 599200
NEBR 1 29100 29130 14900 5700 74.0 1199700 1519230 1409600
N MEX , 199 238 238 60.0 50.0 119940 119424 119900
Nc ist 90 72 19 51.0 52.0 41590 29664 49108
OKLA 1 565 ses S00 30.0 33.0 169950 219470 164500
sc ve 15 12 4 34.0 30.0 S10 192 420
S$ DAK ¢ 152 343 300 23.0 49.0 39496 169807 149700
TENN 17% 23 20 26 52.0 51.0 19196 19020 15326
TEX 1 50800 49800 41600 50.5 44.0 2929900 2309400 2029400
vA wv ll 10 12 43.0 4740 473 430 564
us ' 149723 141065 139446 48.9 S200 7199617 7909647 6985958

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST«

RICE

STATE 2 AREA HARVESTED 3 YIELD z PRODUCTION

: 3 t IND ? t IND? t 7 TRO

: 1976 ¢ 1977 3 1978 t 1976 3 1977 3 1978 3 1976 + 1977 + 1978

7 19000 ACRES POUNDS 1000 Cer

1
ARK + 847.0 83720 4917060 e770 49230 409362 354396 524650
CALIF 39900 30800 508.0 59520 59810 229037 170913 280194
La cy 568.0 47500 583.0 39910 39670 229203 170445 215571
MISS : an 215. 49000 69048 49440 90030
MO wv 17. 24.0 9200 39700 588 629 19020
TEX 3 S50]. $39.0 4310 49670 249430 239400 255333
us 12448000 2924900 3903940 49663 G2 1159648 999223 1371798

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


PEANUTS: Peanut production is forecast at 3.95 billion pounds (1.79 million metric tons) net

weight, down ] percent from the September 1 forecast but 6 percent above the 3.73 bil-
lion pounds (1.69 million MT) produced last year. The expected yield of 2608 pounds per acre is
down 20 pounds from last month but up 151 pounds from last year. Acres to be harvested remains
at 1.52 million acres (613 thousand hectares).

The Virginie-North Carolina area is expecting production of 741 million pounds, less than 1
percent above 1977. Acreage for harvest is unchanged from last year. Indicated yield at 2753
pounds is up 13 pounds from a year earlier. Some relief from the stress of dry weather was real-
ized in late September which will improve harvesting conditions. Digging and threshing are later
than average in North Carolina.

Southeastern production is expected to total 2.54 billion pounds, 10 percent more than last
year. The average yield of 3110 pounds compares with 2814 pounds last year. Yields vary widely
across the droughty Georgia peanut belt, and the dry conditions triggered earlier harvest than
last year on non-irrigated acreage. Irrigation of peanuts in Georgia has increased significantly
during recent years with approximately 40 percent of the peanut acreage now irrigated. Yield from
these irrigated acres is helping push the indicated State yield to a record level in spite of the
droughty season. Progress of harvest in Alabama and Florida is ahead of last year at this time.
A record yield is expected in Florida.

Production in the Southwest is expected to total 675 million pounds, down 2 percent from the
1977 crop. Acreage for harvest is up less than 1 percent. Indicated yields average 1566 pounds
per acre, down 35 pounds from last year. The south Texas harvest continues behind schedule. Har-
vest operations are just getting underway in the Cross-Timbers and Blacklands areas. In Oklahoma,
peanuts suffered this season from extremely hot and dry weather.

SUNFLOWER: Production of sunflower is forecast at 3.39 billion pounds (1.54 million metric tons),

up 23 percent from 1977. This first forecast of the 1978 crop is for all sunflower
production in the four States of North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Minnesota. Yield is
forecast at 1200 pounds per acre in North and South Dakota, 1500 pounds in Minnesota and 1000
pounds in Texas.

Harvest in the tri-State area has begun with harvest around the first of the month standing
about one-third complete in Minnesota, 20 percent in North Dakota and 6 percent complete in
South Dakota. Harvest of early fields in the Texas High Plains had begun in early September. In
Texas, dry conditions persisted throughout the summer months and as a result, many sunflower
planting intentions did not materialize. Some dryland fields which were planted were plowed up
because the crop failed to develop.

COTTON: All cotton production is forecast at 10.9 million bales (480 lbs. net weight), 24 percent

below 1977 and 3 percent below the September 1 forecast. Expected production consists of
10.8 million bales of Upland and 82.1 thousand bales of American-Pima, Cottonseed production in
1978, based on a three year average lint-seed ratio, is forecast at 4.22 million tons (3.83 mil-
lion metric tons), 24 percent below 1977.

Growers expect to harvest 12.3 million acres of all cotton this year, 7 percent below 1977
and virtually unchanged from the September 1 estimate. Average lint yield per harvested acre is
forecast at 425 pounds, 95 pounds below 1977.

Texas and Oklahoma Upland cotton production is forecast at 3.84 million bales for 1978, a
decrease of 35 percent from last year and 2 percent below the September 1 forecast. Rains delayed
crop maturity in West Texas and Oklahoma but were too late to help the drought stricken crop.
Most harvest has ended in South Texas while defoliation is underway in North and West Texas, Many
growers are waiting for frost before beginning harvest.

In the Delta States--Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Missouri--the cotton
crop is expected to produce 2.78 million bales, 27 percent below 1977 and 4 percent below the Sep-
tember 1 forecast, Harvesting activity is gaining momentum with generally favorable weather con-
ditions.

Production in the Southeastern States--Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carol ina--
is expected to total 530 thousand bales, up 2 percent from 1977 but 1 percent below the September
1 forecast. Defoliation and harvesting increased as hot, dry weather hastened crop maturity.

The California, Arizona, and New Mexico Upland crop is forecast at 3.64 million bales, 9 per-
cent below last year and 3 percent below the September 1 forecast. Insect control programs are
tapering off as the crop reaches maturity. Defoliation is underway and harvest is beginning.

The Bureau of the Census reports 1,491,552 running bales ginned to October 1 compared with
2,353,223 bales ginned to the same date in 1977 and 572,583 bales in 1976,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT Vv
1 PRODUCT LON ry PRODUCTION
CROP t BUXES H TON EQUIVALENT
AND 1 UTILIZEO TINOICATED! UTILIZED S INDICATED
STATE £ 1976-77 * 1977-78 8 1978-79 ¢ 197o-77 ¢ 1977-78 t 1978979
: 12900 UNITS 2/7 19000 UNITS
ORANGES EARLY MID & NAVEL 3/1
ARIZ : 800 820 50 30 31 32
CALIF : 254600 209000 219000 960 750 788
FLA + 115+000 885300 951000 Sel7S 36976 49275
TEX : 49350 39850 49000 185 164 170
us 1 145,750 1129970 1209850 69350 49919 59265
ORANGES» VALENCIA id
ARTZ t 35150 23900 24700 118 169 101
CALIF 3 199700 224000 179000 739 625 638
FLA , 714800 799500 729000 39231 39578 39240
TEX : 2+550 29250 29300 los 96 96
us t 974200 1069650 942000 41196 41008 49077
ALL ORANGES :
ARIZ : 34950 39720 39550 148 1460 133
CALIF : 455300 427000 385000 19699 16575 1,426
FLA t 1864800 1679800 1672000 81406 79592 74515
TEX a 64900 69100 69300 293 260 268
us t 262,950 2199620 2149850 109546 99527 9,342
TEMPLES :
FLA ' 3AGO 44900 49800 71 221 216
GRAPEFRUIT,»WHITE SEEDLESS +
FLA 1 294900 280700 28-000 19271 14220 19199
GRAPEFRUITs»PINK SEEDLESS 1
FLA : 12500 149300 139000 531 608 $53
GRAPEFRUIT »OTHER z
FLA ‘ 9+100 8s400 109000 387 357 425
ALL GRAPEFRUIT :
ARIZ 1 32000 29900 29600 96 93 83
CALIF 4/3
DESERT ’ 49500 49300 39800 144 138 122
OTHER AREAS ’ 34200 39200 107 107
TOTAL : 7+700 79500 251 245
Fla oy 514500 Sls400 515000 29189 29185 29168
TEX ey 124400 1is900 119000 496 416 44u
us t 74,600 739700 39032 24999
TANGERINES ’
ARIZ 3 650 700 650 ae 26 24
CALIF 3 1.620 19500 19700 68 36 64
FLA : 39300 39200 39800 157 182 181
us : 5e770 59400 69150 249 234 269
LEMONS :
ARIZ : 5,000 39700 79000 190 2u7 266
CaLIF t 214000 200400 196400 798 775 722
us 1 265000 26s100 26000 968 992 988
TANGELOS iy
FLA ' 41800 41900 39600 216 221 162

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM UF THE FIRST YEak
SHOWN AND ENDS wITH YEAR HARVEST 1S COMPLETED.

2/ NET L@S PER BOXS ORANGES=CALIF & ARIZ=7S9FLA=909
TEX=854 GRAPEFRUIT=CALIF DESERT & ARIZ~649 CALIF
OTHER@67s FLA-8S» TEX=80$ LEMONS=76% TANGELUS &
TEMPLES=903 TANGERINES= CALIF & ARIZ+75» FLA-9S.

3/ NAVEL aND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONAs EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS» INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN

TEXAS.

4/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT, “OTHER AREAS" WILL BE AS OF DEC 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978

B-17

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



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Q3NNILNOD 3dAL ANY SS¥1D AM ODDVEOL

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA

B-14

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978


SEPTEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

HIGHLIGHTS: arly in the month, Tropical Storm Norman, dissipating off the southern California
Coast, brought heavy rain to California at an unexpected time and resulted in substantial losses
to some crops. Subsequent surges of cold air into the West moved all the way to the East Coast
by the end of September causing some heavy snow in the Rockies along the way. Temperatures for
September averaged higher than normal in the East and lower west of the Rockies except the Cali-
fornia Coast and Valley which was warmer than normal.

A high pressure system centered in the Northeast and extending southwestward dominated the
first three days of September. Rain areas extended along the East Coast, much of Texas, the
Appalachians and the Pacific Northwest.

The week of September 4-10 was highlighted by Tropical Storm Norman which dissipated as it
approached the California Coast but not before dumping large amounts of rain on southern Califor-
nia. Heavy damage resulted to some crops because of the unusual timing of this rain. Concur-
rently, a low pressure system aloft, fed by the tropical moisture, spread rain or snow throughout
the West. Meanwhile the high pressure in the East caused warm, moist air to flow northward from
the Gulf of Mexico and brought moderate to heavy rain to southern and central Texas and lighter
amounts northward to eastern Kansas. A minor storm of tropical origin caused heavy showers in
Florida. Rain showers were welcomed in northern New England. While cold air moved into western
U.S. and New England, the northern Plains experienced a heat wave. Some temperatures exceeded
100° early in the week.

From September 11-17 heavy rain fell from southeastern Texas to the southern Great Lakes and
from the central Plains to the western Lakes. Lesser amounts extended eastward from the Lakes
through the Northeast. Cold air from the western area moved slowly eastward through the northern
States to New England. The moist air from the Gulf continued to pour northward causing thunder-
storms and rain along and ahead of the eastward moving cold air. Average temperatures for the
week were colder than normal from New Mexico to the western Great Lakes and westward, and from
western New York through New England. Temperatures were warmer south and east of this line.

Some averages in the central Plains reached 12° higher than normal.

During the third week of September (18th to 24th) another surge of cold air moved into the
western U.S. and brought heavy snow to parts of Montana and other high areas of the Rockies. By
the end of the week the cold air had moved through the entire Nation except the Southeast. Warm-
ing began at the end of the week in central California and the Southwest but the western Plateau
remained much colder than normal. The heaviest rain fell along the leading edge of the surge of
cold ain from west Texas to southern Wisconsin. Lesser amounts fell along the front as it moved
eastward.

After successive surges of cold air into the west earlier in the month and the warming that
began in California at the end of the previous week, rapid warming took place in the West during
the last week of September. The near stagnant air was free of clouds and allowed heating from
the sun. At the same time moisture laden clouds moved across Mexico into southeastern New Mexico,
west Texas and Oklahoma bringing heavy rain to those areas. Severe flooding occurred along the
Rio Grande River, Light to moderate rain fell from the Mississippi River eastward. Temperatures
in the East were near or slightly below normal.

WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS LAG
Winter wheat seedings for 1979 harvest reached 48 percent complete by October 1, lagging
last year's 63 percent and the 58 percent average. Planting in the northern Great Plains ad-
vanced rapidly and kept pace with recent years, Seeding lagged during September in the central
and southern Great Plains because of dry soils, Late September rains in parts of the region im-
proved germination prospects of dry-seeded stands,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS*
ee October 1, 1978

T) Good to excellent
EEE) Poor ta fair

Very poor

(GiB Severe drought
(BE Extreme drought

‘AS REPORTED BY
(CROP CORRESPONDENTS

* INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON-IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

USDA

NEG. CRB 81-78(10)

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS *
o . October 1, 1977

2 Good to excettent
[EE Poor to fair
Ea Very poor

FED Severe drought *As REPORTED aY

(CROP CORFESPONDENTS

EB Extreme drought
INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON-IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER

CONDITIONS.

U.S, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. SRS 177000) STATISTICAL REPORTING SERVICE

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


ALL wHeaT

STATE 4 AREA HARVESTED ' YIELD 1 PRODUCTION
' t t IND # = ¥ IND $ 7 $ TNO
t 1976 + 1977 + 1978 31976 | 1977 t 1978 3 1976 3 1977 + 1978
z T+000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
:
ALA : 65 90 65 2740 26.0 2740 29295 29520 1975S
ARIZ 8 431 140 138-7560 7200-7040 329325 109080 99660
ARK + 630 660 320 39.0 3940 = 3540 249570 259 740 119200
CALIF t 940 678 695 63.5 6465 60.0 590720 439700 411690
COLO 8 20440 29575 20382 2168 «= 2262 222 539200 ©7100 824 980
DEL : 40 34 28 35.0 3160 3540 19400 19054 980
FLA : 14 13 dL 2940 3660 420 377 396
GA : 1s 100 130 33.0 3 30565 3¥300 49420
ToaHO¢ 19430 14190 1,215 42.6 684320 © 509730 © 634360
TLL + 19850 19590 950 43.0 729150 684370 = -3549150
IND 1 19500 19240 750 4540 54.000 S59800 299250
Towa : 30 65 5S 3700 49550 39145 15980
Kans t 129300 129100 105300 28.5 3399000 3444850 3094000
KY t 330 274 195 3760 10+230 109138 69825
LA ' 23 e7 20 34.0 189 918 640
MD : 138 118 102 3700 59244 49366 35978
MICH ’ 870 aes 420 4000 331060 = 339000 164380
MINN + 49056 39327 2076S 3966 1309482 1319894 939675
MISS ' 120 105 85 34.0 39480 30570 29635
MO ’ 19760 19550 840 3900 582080 609450 28 4560
MONT + Se41S 51060 49740 2569 1679295 130*920 1520310
NEBR + 25950 25950 2600 35.0 945400 1035250 839200
NEV t 31 268 26 5567 5365 19677 19560 90
NJ 1 S56 42 33 3120 3 2310 19302
N MEX 262 425 332 21.5 2060 69825 99137 69640
NY : 17S 17s 75 3920 3500 69650 69825 24625
nc t 240 200 175 30.0 34.0 69960 64000 59950
N DAK § 129655 992546 96425 24.8 2943 2879830 © 2299907 2764400
OHIO ' 19600 19540 16125 4700 649000 729380 424750
OKLA 1 69300 66500 Ss600 2760 1519200 1759500 1519200
OREG ' 19333 19200 19190 37.8 609301 459320 51+320
Pa ' 300 270 245 3360 99000 8910
sc 1 125 95 82 2960 39250 29755
S DAK ft 29990 39018 35055 23.9 399520 719964
TENN ' 300 280 220 3660 119100 10+080
TEX a 49700 49700 29700 25.00 103#400 1179500
UTAH t 204 204 200 2301 69519 49716
vA ' 240 205 150 3160 75680 69355
wasnt ' 39200 29985 20760 33.9 1449050 1019305
woVA + i 10 10 3160 52 320
wis ’ 93 75 42 41.0 39238 39075
wo + 330 281 281 2000 79955 59620 8906S
us rT 709771 669216 569532 3066 3165 291429362 240259793 197789360

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


Nationally, the yield is expected to average 31.6 bushels per acre compared with 26.4 bushels
last year and 29.4 in 1976. North Dakota, the largest producing State, expects yields to average
30.0 bushels compared with 24.5 last year.

Harvesting conditions were generally favorable during early September, Rains set in at mid-
month and caused delays in finishing harvest, especially in Montana where 10 percent of the crop
was still in the field on October 1.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production of spring wheat other than Durum is forecast at 409 million bushels

(11.1 million metric tons), 2 percent less than last year and 9 percent less
than the record high 1976 crop. Production declines caused by 7 percent fewer harvested acres
were mostly offset by better yields this year.

Average yield for the U.S. is forecast at 29.8 bushels per acre compared with 28.4 bushels
Yast year and 26.8 in 1976. If realized, it will be next highest to the record 1971 yield of 30.7
bushels.

Harvesting conditions were favorable in North Dakota during early September but rains at
mid-month slowed progress. In the Pacific Northwest, combining made slow progress during the
month. Rains and damp conditions are causing sprout damage in some of the wheat remaining to be
harvested. By October 1, Montana and Idaho growers still had 10 percent of the acreage to harvest
while Washington and Oregon producers were nearing completion.

RICE: The 1978 rice crop is forecast at a record high 138 million cwt. (6.25 million metric tons),
ba ep ub, Slightly from the September 1 forecast. This is 39 percent above the 99.2 million owt.
(4,50 million MT) produced in 1977 and 19 percent above the 1976 crop. This year's increased
production is due primarily to a 35 percent increase in harvested acreage, which is at a record
high.

Yield is forecast at 4534 pounds per acre, 122 pounds per acre above the previous year but 129
pounds below the 1976 crop. The October 1 yield forecast is slightly above September 1 as a result
of increased expectations in Arkansas.

Rice harvest in Louisiana was virtually complete by October 1; Arkansas was 62 percent com-
plete and Mississippi 63 percent complete. Progress of harvest is slightly ahead of last year in
Arkansas but 6 percentage points behind a year earlier in Mississippi.

Harvest in California has just begun and continues to be delayed by slow drying fields. Lower
yield expectations are a result of adverse weather and severe lodging. Texas producers completed the
first cutting in mid-September and the second crop was headed out by October 1.

SOYBEANS: Soybean production is forecast at a record 1,79 billion bushels (48.8 million metric

tons), up 1 percent from last month's forecast, up 2 percent from last year's crop,
and 39 percent above the 1976 crop. Yield per acre is indicated at 28.3 bushels, down 2.3 bush-
els from last year, but 2.2 bushels per acre above 1976,

Yield prospects in the North Central area improved or remained the same as a month earlier
in all States except Kansas which showed a 2 bushel decline. Prospective yields in Illinois,

Minnesota, Ohio, Michigan, and Nebraska remained unchanged but increased 1 bushel per acre in Iowa,
Indiana and Missouri.

In the South Central States, yield prospects increased 1 bushel in Mississippi and Tennessee
and 2 bushels in Arkansas. Alabama registered a 2 bushel decline from September 1. Other South
Central States were unchanged from last month,

In the South Atlantic area, Georgia was down 3 bushels from a month ago, while South Caro-
lina was down 1 bushel. Other States in the area were unchanged.

FLAXSEED: Flaxseed production is forecast at 11.7 million bushels (297 thousand metric tons),

up 3 percent from the September 1 forecast, but 27 percent below the 1977 i
of 16.1 million bushels (409 thousand MT), P ° Production

Minnesota yield prospects are up 0.5 bushel from a month earlier,
Prospects are up 1.0 bushel. Harvest in Minnesota is 83 percent comple
fields. Harvest in North Dakota at 83 percent complete is 4 percentage
Harvest in South Dakota finished in late September
excess moisture and high humidity.

while South Dakota yield

te with some delay from wet
points ahead of the average.
» about 10 days later than usual because of

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY

STATE AREA HARVESTED t YIELO 2 PRODUCTION

z 3 7 TNO 7 7 IND ¢ 7 7 IND

A 1976 1977_ 1978 : 1976 t 1977 ! 1978 ¢ 1976 4 1977 4 1978

1 T9000 ACRES) TONS 1+000 TONS

1
ARIZ : 207 2lu 206 7.00 6.50 6650 19449 19365 19339
ARK st 60 68 70 2655 2.90 2470 153 197 189
CALIF ot 19100 19140 5.85 5.70 69600 69669 66213
COLO y 750 720 2.75 2068 29100 19980 15935
CONN 1/2 22 20 2040 2.40 62 48 48
DEL 143 7 7 3.00 al 22
IDAHO 4 19020 19070 3460 30852 41320
TLL 1 700 770 3265 20811 20772
IND t 400 420 3.30 19386 19408
Towa r 19720 1.750 3.50 69325 50984
KANS n 19000 19010 3.15 39182 29970
KY t 198 208 3.10 645 672
LA Vay 13 13 2.05 27 26
MAINE 1/73 20 22 2.35 52 55
MD wt 66 68 2.90 197 226
MASS 173 e7 2s 2630 56 ss
MICH ' 900 19000 2.45 29450 29808
MINN : 29190 29200 elo 69820 TeGle
MISS 2/1 13 12 28d 36
MO t 500 575 2.65 19524 14620
MONT : 19170 19170 2015 295160 29723
NEBR : 19650 19700 3.20 59460 49950
NEV ' 180 160 3.38 603 629
NH Ist 19 19 2.75 se $2
NJ st So 55 3.30 182 182
N MEX of 226 231 4650 19040 993
NY t 990 390 2.35 20327 29625
NC vt is 16 2.30 37 46
NUAK of 19840 19600 1420 19920 39588
OHIO r 550 600 3.00 19800 14986
OKLA ' 350 400 3430 19320 14260
OREG ' 410 415 3.50 19453 19494
PA $ B10 825 2260 29145 29408
RI ist 3 3 2.30 7 7
S Oak ' 29300 24440 1.65 41026 44800
TENN 1/8 95 100 2045 2465 275
TEX + 200 160 4670 846 820
UTAH : 460 465 3650 19628 19504
vT et 94 98 1.90 186 206
va Vt 17 82 4s 2.00 1.80 148 255
WASH cy Suo Su3 503 3.60 3.50 19761 181)
wVva 1st 80 80 60 2610 2025 160 188
WIS 1 39010 39100 34100 2420 3025 109075 109540
wyo t sis Ses 535 2630 2.00 19050 19338
us t 269651 279085 279559 2.62 2.97 809430 849750

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ BEGINNING 1978 INCLUDED IN "ALL OTHER.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 8-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION

Released: October 11, 1978 Economics, Statistics, &
3:00 P.M. ET Cooperatives Service
US. Department
of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

Corn production is forecast at a record 6.82 billion bushels (173 million metric
tons), up less than 1 percent from the September 1 forecast but 7 percent
above the previous record set last year. The 90 percent confidence interval
for this 1978 production forecast is 6.44 to 7.21 billion bushels.

Sorghum grain production is forecast at 699 million bushels (17.8 million metric
tons), 1 percent below the September 1 forecast and 12 percent less than last
year.

Feed grain production (corn, sorghum, oats, and barley combined) is expected to
total a record 209 million metric tons, 4 percent above last year.

Soybean production, forecast at a record 1.79 billion bushels (48.8 million metric
tons), is up 1 percent from last month's forecast and 2 percent above last
year. The 90 percent confidence interval for this 1978 production forecast
is 1.69 to 1.89 billion bushels.

Oilseed production (soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, and flaxseed combined) is fore-
cast at 54.7 million metric tons, down 1 percent from last year.

Food grain production (wheat, rye and rice combined) is forecast at 55.4 million
metric tons, 8 percent less than in 1977

All cotton production is forecast at 10.9 million bales, 24 percent below 1977
and 3 percent below the September 1 forecast. The 90 percent confidence
interval for this 1978 production forecast is 9.88 to 11.9 million bales.

Sugar_crops-sugarbeet production at 26.1 million tons (23.7 million metric tons)
is 4 percent above last year. Sugarcane production at 27.0 million tons
(24.5 million MT), is up 1 percent.

Orange production forecast at 215 million boxes (8.47 million metric tons) is 2
percent below last season.

Fall potato production is forecast at a record 312 million cwt, (14.2 million
metric tons), 2 percent above the 1977 crop.

SOYBEAN REVISIONS
Revised acreage, yield and production estimates for
the 1977 soybean crop are shown on page B-5.

RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION FORECASTS
Forecasts in this report reflect evaluations of
probable crop production about October 1. Informa-~
tion to assist data users in assessing reliability
of the October | forecast is provided on page A-5.

CrPr 2-2 (10-78) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


Dry weather late in the growing season in Maine limited growth of tubers, Rains came too
late to help early varieties but were beneficial to the Russets. Excellent weather has prevailed
for harvest and progress is considerably ahead of a year ago. Growing conditions were generally
good on Long Island, New York although irrigation was necessary throughout much of the season.
Harvest conditions have been ideal. Dry weather in Upstate New York during the growing season
held back sizing of tubers and reduced potential yields. Quality of the crop is generally good
with size running below average. Harvest of the Pennsylvania crop is running 5 days ahead of a
year earlier when digging was hindered by continuous wet fields.

In the eight Central States, production is forecast at 67,7 million cwt., virtually un-
changed from last year. Yield per acre is placed at 216 cwt., 6 cwt. per acre above 1977. Record
yields are forecast in Minnesuta, North Dakota and South Dakota,

On the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, many fields have been too wet to harvest and some pota+
toes are rotting in the ground. Other areas of the State have experienced dry weather. The
Montcalm County area is expecting a better yield than last year with good quatity reported. In
the Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota, harvest got off to a slow start but picked
up to a rapid pace by the end of September. Harvesting progress, which is on par with a year
ago, was hampered initially by rains followed by an unusually hot period which limited digging to
early morning and evening hours. Light rains with cool temperatures came about mid-September and
harvest picked up momentum rapidly. Excess rains in Wisconsin are causing harvest problems with
some abandonment reported.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 197 million cwt., 4 percent more than the
189 million cwt. produced during 1977, Harvested area is placed at 631 thousand acres compared
with 619 thousand acres harvested last year, The average yield at 313 cwt. is 7 cwt. per acre
above last year.

In Idaho, harvest is making good headway but lags the usual pace because of a late start.
The crop harvested to date has good size and quality. The quality of the Oregon crop is good
but size is small. In Washington, harvest of Norgolds for fresh market was virtually complete
by October 1. Harvest is currently in full swing in the Columbia Basin with good quality and

high solids reported.

The 1979 intended Winter crop acreage for California is estimated at 3300 acres compared
with 3000 acres last yea Florida's intended planted acreage is placed at 10.2 thousand acres,

up 200 acres from 1978.

The revised production for the 1978 winter crop is placed at 2.6 million cwt. (119 thousand
MT), down 5 percent from the previous estimate and 1 percent below the 1977 production of 2.7
million cwt, (121 thousand MT),

SWEETPOTATOES: The production forecast for the 1978 season is placed at 13.8 million cwt. (624

thousand metric tons), slightly above the September 1 forecast and 11 percent
above the 12.4 million cwt. (562 thousand MT) produced last year. The crop is expected to be
harvested from 119 thousand acres (48.0 thousand hectares), 5 percent more than in 1977. Yield
per acre is placed at 116 cwt. compared with 110 cwt. in 1977 and 114 cwt. in 1976.

Harvest is progressing at a rapid pace in New Jersey where the crop is showing good quality.
In North Carolina, the leading sweetpotato State, growing conditions have been good throughout
most of the season. Harvest was about 50 percent complete on September 30. Quality of early
harvested sweetpotatoes in South Carolina has been very good. Harvest was about one-third com-
plete by the end of September. The Louisiana crop made good growth in most areas during
September. About 65 percent of the crop was harvested by the end of September compared with

55 percent last year.

Harvest continued active in east Texas during September. Tuber development remains behind
schedule because of the dry conditions this summer but is better than earlier expectations.
In California, harvest continues active with much of the crop going into storage.

TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 2.01 billion pounds (912 thousand metric tons),
up 5 percent from the 1977 production and 1 percent above the September 1 forecast.

Flue-cured production is up 9 percent and burley production is up 1 percent from last year

Yield per acre for all tobacco is forecast at 2129 pounds compared with 1997 in 1977

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


U.S . ALL COTTON —~ 1969-78
Yield and Production *

2
a
’
a

[\\ f/f
K, ~~" \ 4

n n n 4 n n 1 n 1

199 70 71 #72 #7 4 % 7% TF ‘8 '79
OCTORER 1 FORECAST, ARDLENET WEIGHT BALES.

sos Mccann

[par seeenenentnes

B68a88 898

9
8
7
6

HAY: All hay production in 1978 is forecast at 139 million tons (126 million metric tons), up 1
‘percent from the August 1 forecast, up 6 percent from 1977 and 16 percent above the 1976
crop. Production increases from last year are expected in a majority of the States. The all hay
yield forecast at 2.27 tons per acre compares with last year’s 2.17 tons and the 1976 yield of
1.99 tons per acre.

Production of Alfalfa and Alfalfa mixtures is forecast at 84.8 million tons (76.9 million
MT), up slightly from the August T forecast, 5 percent above 1977 and 21 percent above 1976.
Yield is forecast at 3.08 tons per acre, up from 2.97 tons last year and 2.62 tons in 1976.

All_other hay production is forecast at 54.4 million tons (49.4 million MT), up 2 percent
from the August 1 forecast, 7 percent above last year and 8 percent above 1976. Yield is fore-
cast at 1.61 tons per acre, compared with 1.52 tons in 1977 and 1.49 tons in 1976.

ORY EDIBLE BEANS: Dry edible bean production is forecast at 18.6 million cwt. (843 thousand

metric tons), 3 percent below last month's forecast but 14 percent more than
last year. Acreage for harvest, at 1.47 million acres (595 thousand hectares), is 16 percent
above last year. Average yield prospects declined 39 pounds during September and are now fore-
cast at 1263 pounds per acre. This compares with the 1977 yield of 1290 pounds.

Harvest of the California crop is over 80 percent complete. Prospective yields for all
major varieties declined during September with large Lima's showing the greatest reduction.
Favorable weather conditions in Michigan in early September speeded the harvest; however, heavy
rains later in the month reduced yield prospects slightly and delayed the harvest which is now
80 percent complete. Yield prospects are also reduced slightly in New York due to dry weather
conditions during July. The Colorado harvest is nearing completion. Late season rains and an
early frost in Idaho reduced yield prospects. Harvest is approaching final stages in Nebraska
and North Dakota. Modest yield reductions are expected in Washington and Wyoming as the season
draws to a close.

POTATOES: Production of fall potatoes for the United States is forecast at a record 312 million

cwt. (14.2 million metric tons), 2 percent above the 307 million cwt. (13.9 million
MT) produced in 1977. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.15 million acres (464 thousand hect-
ares), 1 percent greater than last year. Yields nationally are forecast at 272 cwt. per acre, up
slightly from the 270 average of 1977 and the 269 average of 1976.

Production in the seven Eastern States is estimated at 47.1 million cwt., 6 percent below the
49.8 million cwt, harvested in 1977, The average yield is placed at 233 cwt. per acre., down
significantly from the 252 cwt. per acre yield of 1977. Maine's yield of 215 cwt. per acre is
the lowest yield in the eastern area and is the lowest yield for the State since 1973,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


HOPS

STATE ' AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO 3 PRODUCTION 17
t 7 ? TNO? ? ¥ IND + t t IND
t 1976 3 1977 _¢ 1978 1976 ! 1977 3 1978 1976 + 1977 1978
t 1000 ACRES POUNDS 29000 POUNDS
:
CALIF ¢ 1.05 1.5 19660 19630 = 19360 29490 29465 29040
IDAHO t 300 2.7 1+720 19770 19790 5160 $9133 418633
OREG 3 5.4 5e4 19660 19690 1 eS20 81964 99295 82208
WASH t 21.0 1e3 1996019840 19 8B 419160 379906
us t 3069 19870 1079619784 579774 549777

1/ 1978 QUANTITIES AVAILABLE FOR MARKET WILL BE GOVERNED
BY REGULATIONS ISSUED UNDER FEDERAL MARKET ORDER 9916

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 17

STATE AVERAGE 1977 1978 STATE AVERAGE 1977 1978
1967-76 1967+76
PERCENT PERCENT

ALA 79 1% 66 NEV 82 80 89
ARIZ 7 72 68 NA crn a1 75
ARK 79 79 67 NJ Te 68 8s
CALIF 1% 43 90 N MEX 76 7? 68
COLO 14 65 58 NY as 66 61
CONN al 7 84 NC 19 69 80
OEL 79 69 80 N OAK 69 66 88
Fla 83 81 78 On10 84 a 80
Ga 76 62 57 OKLA 80 719 49
ToAHO 84 63 68 OREG 78 69 98
TUL ai 91 72 Pa 82 a4 87
INO 84 91 8s RL a6 94 99
lows 19 88 6s sc 4 sa 62
KANS 77 91 61 S DAK 66 17 66
ky 86 n 86 TENN 82 83 71
La 79 76 19 TEX 80 s7 62
MAINE 82 81 51 uTAn 738 63 73
MD 19 63 81 vT 83 63 1%
MASS: 81 80 eo VA 62 73 85
MICH 78 86 83 WASH 1 6S 96
MINN 70 84 389 weVA BG 7S 39
MISS 81 7 73 wIs 1% 88 91
Mo 76 89 75 wyo 82 70 89
MONT 8) 66 97

NEBR n 8a 76 us 73 76 77

14 GOOD TO EXCELLENTs 80 AND OVERS POOR TO FAIR» 65-79% VERY POUR» 50-644 SEVERE
DROUGHT» 35-49% EXTREME DROUGHTs UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


TOBACCO

STATE AREA HARVESTED ‘ YIELO 3 PROOUCTION

f ? t IND ¢ ? + —TND ¢ 7 7 IND

1 1976 3 1977 1978 § 1976 8 1977 + 1978 1976 4 1977.4 1978

+ ACRES POUNDS 39000 POUNDS

'
ala Ve 640 550 S20 10800 19900 14800 19152 15045 936
CONN =f 45550 39500 39510 19580-19606 = 19546 79189 59620 59427
FLA 3 169350119860 119000 20148 = 20094 «= 29050 = 300828 = 24798 = 2250
GA 3 682000 © 659000 610000 ©1820 2007S «= -ApZSO 1230760 ©—-1349B7S 137250
IND % 79500 69900 61600 29420 29400 29450 = 189150 16 #560 169170
ky £ 2079000 1969750 189,200 24403 24297 § 2400 4979401 © 45200246 © 4544128
ta Ves 140 160 140 700 aso 800 98 19 112
Mo § 239000 = 235000 = 239000 = 15300 919310 1350 © 294900 30¥130 = 314050
MASS 15210 14160 990 19525 19643) 39523 12845 15906 15508
wo WV 3 29400 29500 21400 29190 20340 29250 59256 59850 59400
nc $ 4481000 3929600 3989500 29015 19896 «= 29088_~=— 9024930 7449525 8329250
OHIO = 129100 = 109400 = 808100 24103) 22143 20287 «= 239343 229283 © 234095
PA # 139500 = 139500139500 19750 19940 19880) 239625 «= 26190 25 380
sc t 759000 689000 = 709000 9 20045 = 20040020150) 1530375 91389720 ©=—150e500
TENN + 689450 689460 679220 22040 = 10997 = 29 136 = 1399668 = 1369746 = 143600
VA # 869780 = 799700 = 730250 «19773 979% = 986B_ =—«153987B 1429985 1364796
wval/ 1800 15600 19500 15790 28020 = 16700 39222 39232 29550
wis t 129100 128050 «129100 198Z1 «2005919837 —s 20209 24809 22223
us 114044520 9957650 9449530 2004519997 e129 291354829 199129417 290109925

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUGARBEETS

STATE AREA HARVESTED A YIELD 4 PRODUCTION

i 3 T TND ? + IND? t z IND

H 1976 3 1977 4 1978 + 1976 4 1977 t 1978 3 1976 + 1977 + 1978

t 19000 ACRES TONS 19000 TONS

:
aRIZ lst 17.0 12.8 15.5 23.0 2243 2004 391 285 316
CALIF l/t 312.0 21760 200.0 28.6 26.0 2665 8912 59642 So300
COLO : 221.0 7200 86.0 19.5 1960 24303 19404 15634
IDAHO 13964 10764 128.0 1965 29879 29094 29560
KANS: t 3860 2400 2620 1657 749 601 468
MAINE 2/3 5.5 56
MICH : Deb 65.5 9040 2160 19580 19796 19620
MINN t 248.0 26040 261.0 18.2 33026 49732 49776
MONT t 4601 4500 452 1969 965 896 904
NEBR t 84,5 6767 74.0 200 19690 19354 19406
N MEX 3/5 o 1.2 21 19.2 20 23 42
N DAK f¢ 149.8 15562 15760 17.8 29022 20769 20983
OH10 1 36.5 2265 23.3 2063 617 457 419
OREG t 14.5 Bee 8.8 2501 364 206 220
TER z 23.3 179 24.0 17.3 503 309 444
UTA : 18.0 968 12.6 17.7 317 173 218
WASH : 76.5 61.6 70.0 24.3 19862 19495 15820
WYO t 56.4 4504 4769 19.6 19167 949 958
us 21947868 1921662 1927164 20.5 299386 249985 265085

1/ RELATES TO YEAR OF HARVEST.
2/ NONE PLANTED IN 1977 OR 1976.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

STATE AREA HARVESTED : YIELO H PRODUCTION
r ? = IND ¥ 7 IND? t t TAD
2 1976 3 1977 3 1978 3 1976 % 1977 3 1978 ¢ 191 1977 1976
+ T¥000 ACRES TONS 19000 TONS
t
Fla + 300.0 319.0 32.6 29.9 3060 99715 89970 99300
HAW : 103.5 108.3 8767 88.7 9361 99362 99176 105083
La + 322.0 300.0 25.6 23.9 2200 8.065 79695 64600
TEX : 3369 34.3 3548 29.2 aleu 978 989 14063
us ' T5944 752.6 37.6 35.3 3509 269120 269830 279046

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-15, CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


Among the major producing States, Kansas growers seeded 45 percent of the intended acreage
by October 1, 20 points less than 1977's fast pace and 5 points less than average. Some western
Kansas fields were seeded under very dry conditions and needed moisture to germinate. Oklahoma
seeding reached only 30 percent, sharply below last year's progress when 58 percent was seeded
by October 1 and well behind the 44 percent average, Late September rains improved planting con-
ditions after a dry start earlier in the month. Texas seedings stood at 39 percent, far short of
1977's 57 percent and the 64 percent average. Rains near the end of September delayed some
planting activity but also assured germination of dry-sown fields. Emerged stands showed good
growth promising good fall grazing. Colorado seeded winter wheat was emerging slowly because of
limited moisture but planting reached 88 percent, equaling last year and 2 points ahead of aver-
age. Nebraska's planting stayed on schedule at 85 percent, the same as last year and average.
Montana seedings reached 70 percent, shy of 1977's 85 percent and the 80 percent average. South
Dakota planting was almost complete.

In the Corn Belt, seeding was later than normal in Illinois and Indiana but equaled the
average in Ohio. All three States exceeded 1977's pace by 5 to 10 points.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at a record 6.82 billion bushels (173 million
metric tons), up less than 1 percent from the September 1 forecast and up 7 per-

cent from the 1977 production.

Acreage for grain at 67.8 million acres (27.4 million hectares) is virtually unchanged from
September 1 and is 3 percent below 1977.

Average yield is forecast at a record 100.7 bushels per acre, 0.4 bushel above last month
and up 9.7 bushels from 1977, Yields were either unchanged or up from last month in all major
Corn Belt States with the exception of Illinois where the yield was down 2 bushels per acre.

In the Eastern North Central States, harvest was 10 percent complete as of October 1.
This compares with 11 percent last year and the average of 8 percent for the comparable date. Harvest

in Illinois was the most advanced at 15 percent complete while Michigan and Wisconsin were just
getting started. Illinois and Wisconsin farmers reported stalk rot and corn borer damage.

By the end of the month, harvest in the Western North Central States was 11 percent complete.
Progress was considerably behind last year when 21 percent was harvested by October 1, but only
slightly behind the average of 13 percent. Iowa producers reported some damage from root worms,
corn borers and stalk rot.

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: Production of sorghum for grain is forecast at 699 million bushels (17.8 million
metric tons), less than 1 percent below the September 1 forecast and 12 percent

Yess than last year's production. Yield prospects declined during September in Texas and New Mexico
because of dry soils that prevailed during most of the month. Rains arrived in the Texas High
Plains late in September; not in time to prevent a decrease in yield prospects. In South Dakota

and Arkansas, favorable conditions increased yield prospects.

Sorghum harvest advanced to 34 percent complete in the 7 major producing States by October 1,
compared with 39 percent in 1977 and the 34 percent average. Harvest lagged from last year most
significantly in Nebraska with only 10 percent combined, less than half of 1977's 25 percent.

Only South Dakota exceeded last year's pace but by only 2 points.

The Texas sorghum harvest stood at 71 percent complete, falling between 1977's 73 percent and
the 68 percent average. Rains halted harvest on the High and Low Plains late in September; har-
vest was complete from the Cross-Timbers area to the lower Rio Grande Valley. Kansas harvest
reached 15 percent, equaling last year but ahead of the 10 percent average. About 55 percent
of the crop was mature. Warm, dry weather in Nebraska pushed sorghum development; 75 percent
of the acreage was ripe, the same as last year and only slightly behind normal.

ALL WHEAT: Production of winter and spring wheat combined is expected to total 1.78 billion

bushels (48.4 million metric tons), down 12 percent from last year's 2.03 billion
bushels (55.1 million MT) and 17 percent less than the record high 1976 crop. The lower pro-
duction resulted from 15 percent fewer acres. Yields averaged 31.5 bushels per acre this year
compared with 30.6 bushels last year, partially offsetting the acreage decline.

DURUM WHEAT: Production of Durum wheat is forecast at_126 million bushels (3.42 million metric

tans), second largest of record and up 57 percent from last year. If realized, this
will be 7 percent less than the record high 1976 crop. Improved yields in most of the major pro~
ducing areas plus a 31 percent increase in harvested acres caused the sharp increase in production
from last year.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-B CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


FLAXSEED

STATE t AREA HARVESTED s YIELD t PRODUCTION

t ? ? TND 7 ¥ IND ¢ t t TND

4 1976 1 19774 1978: 1976 1 1977 | 1978 3 1976 4 1977 4 1978

3 1000 ACRES BUSHELS 17000 BUSHELS

:
MINN ry 195 220 138 10.0 1445. 1465 15950 39190 29001
MONT 1/8 5 s 10.0 7.0 50 35
N DAK suo 850 480 8.0 10.0 1260 49000 8500 59760
S$ vpAK ot 230 330 288 060 13.0 1340 19380 4290 3974e
TEX 2/3 5S 9 20 860 10 10.0 440 90 200
us s 985 19414 926 od 12.6 79820 169105 119705
1/_ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.

PEANUTS FOR NUTS

STATE AREA HARVESTED t YIELO 1 PRODUCTION

: + z IND t t + IND t 7 7 TNO

: 1976 1977 1978 t 1976 § 1977 + 1978 ¢ 1976 3 1977 & 1978

t 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1000 | POUNDS)

t
ALA ' 214.0 215.0 215.0 24400 29740 24700 5139600 = 5899100 = 5804500
Fla : $5.0 5500 53.0 39000 3100 39400 165+000 1709500 1805200
GA + 526.0 526.0 $26.0 28955 24850 39300 195540330 194990100 197355800
MISS 1/3 8.5 760 6.8 16450 19650 19550 129325 119550 104540
N MEX 1/t 965 Bou 9.6 29280 29700 29300 219660 259380 227060
Nc ' 16660 166.0 166.0 24655 29675 29600 4449050 4319600
OKLA t 120.0 120.0 120.0 28050 24230 19800 2679600 2164000
sc we 15.5 15.0 1542 14590 29080 29000 240645 319200 302400
TEX : 304.0 30000 B0L.0 14525 10325 1450 © 4632600 © 3944500 © 4364450
vA : 103.0 10360 10340 39000 29845 39000 3099000 2939035 3094000
us 11952165 1951604 1951546 28465 29457 29608 397504890 347264015 399529570

1/ ESTIMATES FORK CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUNFLOWER
STATE AREA HARVESTED YIELD z PRODUCTION
: 5 TINT: :
1976 $1977 3 dg7g | 1976 * 1977 1978 , 1976 $ 1977 + qo79

T,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
MINN : 210 518 660 1,224 1,558 1,500 257,100 807,060 990,000
N OAK : 600 1,320 1,820 1,000 «1,255 «1,200 600,000 1,658,250 2,184,000
S_DAK 232 147 959 1,200 126,560 '176,400
TEX 235 40 717~——-‘1,000 168,600 40,000
MINN - N DAK: 810 1,838 2,480 1,058 1,341 «1,280 857,100 2,465,310 3,174,000
4 STATES 23205 2,667 1:38 Ven 23760,470 3,390,400
CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 8-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA






POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP I AREA HARVESTED Y YIELO n PRODUCTION
AND i} 7 i} ING T 1 1 IND 1 1 7 END
STATE {1976 1 1977 1 1978 1 1976 1 1977 | 1978 1 1976 | 1977_1 1978
T Ts000 ACRES cor T.000 Cw
4
WINTER 1
1
TOTAL, wv 14m 1304 12.9 207 = 199203 21984 = 24660 20621
1
SPRING 1
?
TOTAL 271 9864 Dee 9067 251 250,199 2hy722 224870 184028
‘
SUMMER '
'
TOTAL 2/1 11867 1156. 112.2 1900191 187 224541 219982 219013
1
FALL 4
CALIF 4 17.3, 350-350-350 69475 59950-69055
COLO ' 37.5 255 260 260 99257 99490 99750
CONN ' 169° 260-245-260 466 4946
IOAHO-10 SW CO | 32.6 325° 300,318 95000 104080
<OTHER CO 1 333.0 235° «240 250 795200 © 839250
IND ' 3.9 255 240 = 240 19128 936
MAINE ' 119.0 2450 240215, 289320 259585
MASS ' 3.45 220 260 = 260 888 910
MICH t 36.0 246502750 255 8800 8670
MINN t 69.0 165 180 205 129960 149145
MONT ‘ 6.7 25 20 220 21016 14914
NEBR 1 6.4 260 260 240 19440-19536
NEV ' 17,0 380 340 310 49760 $9270
NH Eval 26000235 7
N Y*LONG IS f @3.3° 310315280 7182 69524
UPSTATE. 1 24,5 265 260 250 59356 69125
N OAK ( 146.0 [460 160 175 219600 22400
OHIO 1 968 255 265 225 20744 = 24205
OREG@MALHEUR CO | 40.8 9370 355350 39550 39760
cOTHER CO ft $8.2 455 440 440 221000 = 259608
Pa ' 85.0 255 250 250 60375 69250
R1 ' 4.2 250 230 240 94319008
S_DAK ( 7.2 65 lao 18S 10062 14332
UTAH 1 4.6 260 240 230 19416 19058
VT ' 11 «8 205 235220 235 176
wash 1 124.0 11060 105,0 450 460 6S 500600 48.825
WIS. ‘ 5360 55.5 $5.0 290 325 300 186038 16500
Wyo 1 663 667 6.8 270 220 240 19474 19632
1
TOTAL 11914360 1513867 19146,4 269 = 270-272 -3074427 3079064 3120018
'
us {4237605 1935827 1,362.2 260 261260357674 3549576 353, 680

1/ 1978 REVISED. 2/

ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
3/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP,

POTATOES 1979 CROP 1/

AREA PLANTED,

AREA HARVESTED

SEASONAL GROUP:

ANO STATE 1977 w7e 2 1977 1978 2/ 19
T, 000 ACRES
WINTER: :
“CALIF : 4.5 3.0 3.3 4.5 3.0
FLA : 9.7 10.0 10.2 8.9 9.9
TOTAL i 13.6 13.0 13.5 13.4 12.9
YIELD PRODUCTION
1977 1978 2/ we, 19771978 2 1b
CHT T,000 CWT
WINTER:
CALIF 235 230 1,058 690
FLA 180 195 1,602 1,931
TOTAL 199 203 2,660 2,621
T7 INCLUDES: ACREAGE PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.
2/ REVISED.
‘By ESTIMATES To BE RELEASED JAN 1979.
CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED = YIELD PER HECTARE: PRODUCTION
: : z A A TNOICATED
crop vary, INDICATED yg77 ; INDICATED 1977 eee
: : : : 21978 1978
HECTARES, METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 730 27 423 410 §.71 6.32 161 821 300 172 668 260 173 330 470
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 960 5 441 460 3.53 3.26 20 083 360 17 865 860 17 754 350
ALL WHEAT 960 22 877 940 2,06 2.12 55 133 050 48 654 320 48 399 030

DURUM 190 1 609 0501.78 2.13 2.176 260 3 438 280 3-420 040

OTHER SPRING 080 § 548 3001.97 2.01 11 406 470 «11 368 480 «11 131 430
RICE 150-1 229 850 4.94 5.03 4 500 680 6 225 280 6 250 410
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 7/ 900 25 603 939 2.06 1,90 47 947 110 48 235 840 48 71 990
FLAXSEED. 230 374 740) (0.71 0.79 409 090 288 250 297 320
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 670 613 350 2,75 2.92 7 690 O80 1 806 840) «3-792 850
SUNFLOWER 340 -1:079 310-—«*1.40 1.42 1 252 120 3 $37 850
COTTON 000 4.975 p60 (0.58 0.48 3132 860 2 428 680 2 367 220
ALL HAY 910 24 788 880 4.86 5.09 118 892 9102/125 207 820 126 242 920

ALFALFA : 030 11 152 850 6.66 6.89 72 964 8702/76 643 500 76 883 910

ALL OTHER 213.519 880 13 636 030 3.40 3.62 45 928 040 2/48 564 320 49 359 O10
DRY EDIBLE BEANS > 511 080 595 100 1.45 1.42 738 810 868 220 42 540
POTATOES

FALL 460 820 463 940 30.22 30.51 13 928 120 14 152 820

TOTAL 549 850 551 270 29.25 29.10 +16 083 210 16 042 570
SNEETPOTATOES 45 490 47960 12.36 13.01 562 220 621 420623 730
TOBACCO 387 570 382 230 «2.24 2.39 867 450 907 070 912 140
SUGARBEETS : 492 180 514 520 46.05 45.99 22 666 O10 23: 126 860 23 663 910
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR :

AND SEED : 307 320 304 570 79.20 80.56 24 339770 24 816 950 24 535 720
HOPS : 12 340 12 500 2,00 2.00 24 850 25 060 25 000
APPLES, COM'L : 3018 910 2/3 336 610 3 349 ogo
GRAPES 3 898 900 4184 390 3 916 770
SWEET CHERRIES 3/ : 134 080 131 270
TART CHERRIES 3/ : 95 660 79 020
PRUNES AND PLUMS t
(EXCL CALIF) 58 340 58 970 56 970
CRANBERRIES 98 350 4/103 510 108 680
PECANS 107 320 100 380 96 300
FILBERTS, 10 700 10 700 10 700
CITRUS FRUITS 5/ : 1977-78 1978-79 1978-79
ORANGES * 3 B 642 750 8 474 920
CENars B99 930 896 300

T/ 1977 REVISED. 2/ AUGUST 1, 1978. 3/7 CARRTED FORWARD FROM CHERRY UTILIZATION REPGRT RELEASED OCTOBER

5, 1978, 4/ MID-AUGUST.
TION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING

YEAR,

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

5/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLE-

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION
CROP : : INDICATED INDICATED } } INDICATED
2 1974978 1 1977 vorgay i877 1978
A WECTARES METRIC TONS

OATS: : 5 44) 870 4 836 450 1.99 1.79 10 855 940 8 649 160
BARLEY 3 3 840 510 3 685 110 2.36 2.59 9 053 040 9 545 660
WINTER WHEAT 19 594 690 15 720 590 2.12 2.15 41 550 320 33 847 560
RYE 280 850 433 020 1.54 1.68 431 770 725 640
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 67 580 79 720 0.69 1.96 46 400 156 400
POTATOES

WINTER 2/ 5 420 5 220 22.26 22.78 120 650 138 890

SPRING — 36 990 36 710 28.04 22.28 1 037 360 817 730

SUMMER 46 620 45 410 20.39 20.99 997 080 953 130
PEPPERMINT FOR OIL : 35 170 42 250 0.06 0.06 2 000 2 680
SPEARMINT FOR OTL : 15 ovo 19 140 0.07 0.08 1 060 1 400
PEACHES : 1 356 690 1 183 230
PEARS : 713 590 633 850
APRICOTS : 133 720 107 230
NECTARINES (CALIF) : 136 080 131 40
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) — = 142 430 125 190
PLUMS (CALIF) 2 142 430 117 930
ALMONDS (CALIF) : 225 890 154 220
WALNUTS 174 630 145 150

‘UT ESTIWATES CARTED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 27 1978 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978

Aa

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


Prospects in other States remained unchanged from last month except in New York where the
outlook improved to 195 thousand tons. Harvest in New York is about one-fourth complete under
ideal weather conditions. Quality is good and increased fruit set has. offset the smaller berry
sizes this year. Harvest of Concords in Pennsylvania is winding down while in Michigan, opera-
tions were slowed by recent rains. In Washington, rainy and cloudy weather during September
slowed sugar development and delayed harvest.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is
forecast at 65.0 thousand tons (59.0 thousand metric tons). This final fore-
cast of the season is unchanged from last month and remains 7 percent above the 1977 total.

Michigan harvest is nearing completion with good fruit sizes and quality, Picking of Idaho's
crop is finished and in Washington, harvest of good quality late varieties is complete. Oregon's
Italian harvest was beset by untimely rains, which delayed picking operations and promoted brown
rot and splitting.

CRANBERRIES: Production of cranberries in the United States is forecast at 2.40 million barrels
(109 thousand metric tons), 5 percent more than was expected as of mid-August and
14 percent more than last year.

Massachusetts’ prospects improved 6 percent during late August and September despite flood
damage in some bogs which produced severe scald. In New Jersey, berries were slow to color in
many bogs; harvest is well underway. In Oregon, cool wet weather and insect damage have slowed
berry growth, causing reduced yields. In Washington, harvest got underway in mid-September to
meet processor needs. Fresh market harvest was expected to be underway the first week in Octo-
ber. Cool, rainy weather has prompted heavy vine growth and increased berry rot. Color is re-
ported better than average. In Wisconsin, size is good but color is poor. Good growing condi-
tions more than offset fireworm damage and excessive vine growth.

PAPAYAS: Hawaii papaya production during October is forecast at 5.30 million pounds (2400 metric
tons), an increase of 3 percent from September's production of 5.15 million pounds
(2340 MT). Utilized production is expected to increase to 5.90 million pounds (2680 MT) in
November, then drop in December and again in January 1979 with forecasts of 5.00 and 4.40 million
pounds (2270 and 2000 MT) respectively. For each of the last three months of 1978, production

is expected to be lower than last year. However, the January 1979 forecast is 3 percent above
the January 1978 total.

While September's total area in crop, at 3174 acres (1280 hectares), is 39 acres more than
August and 109 acres more than the same time a year ago, the area for harvest during September,
at 2087 acres (840 hectares), is slightly below the August figure of 2100 acres (850 hectares).

PECANS: Pecan production is forecast at 212 million pounds (96.3 thousand metric tons), 4 per-

cent less than last month's forecast and 10 percent below last year's crop. Declines
from last month were registered in Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Texas. Other States were un-
changed except Arkansas which was up. The declines were due mostly to the dry weather during
September. In Alabama, scab and aphid infestations are heavy. Georgia growers are still
concerned about limb breakage. Aphid and weevil infestations are increasing in north and central
Texas. Improved varieties in the U.S. are expected to account for 65 percent of this year's
crop compared with 58 percent last year.

EILBERTS: Oregon and Washington fitbert production is expected to total 11.8 thousand tons
(10.7 thousand metric tons), unchanged from last month and last year. Harvest is
wel] underway under favorable weather conditions.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

STaTe 2 AREA HARVESTED : YIELD i PRODUCT EON

i t TNO t 7 es OTT t 5 TNO

H 1976 ¢ 1977 2 1978 1976 1977 41978 ¢ 1976 3 1977 1978

t 1+000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

:
ALA Vt 800 375 S40 60.0 29.0 50.0 48000 100875 279000
ARIZ 1/3 28 50 4s 6060 6000 100.0 19680 39000 4500
ARK l/s 45 43 30 S660 53.0 50.0 29520 20279 19500
CALIF 173 290 267 240 11060 316.0 120.0 319900 289652 284800
COLO t 630 695 600 10240 «11640 = 110460 649260 809620 669000
CONN 2/5
OEL : 195 18s 180 88.0 56.0 94.0 179160 109360 164920
FLA Iss 480 299 370 60.0 35.0 S820 284600 109665 219460
GA ' 29160 1000 19400 6260 24,0 50.0 1339920 248000 709000
IDAHO 1/t 3s 28 31 85.0 86.0 86.0 20975 29408 21666
TUL + 119590 10,980 105700 10740 10540 114.0 152409130 191529900 192199800
INO ‘ 69300 6s210 $3900 110290 10 110.0 6935000 6331420 6494000
1OwA : 129900 129400 12,100 91.0 BB.0 191739900 190929200 193919500
KANS : 19790 14680 15500 9600 96.0 1719840 1619280 1479000
KY ' 19360 19410 15340 102.0 90.0 1389720 1269900 1159240
La iss 7 es so 6620 $2.0 49686 39380 26900
MAINE 2/1
MO ’ 630 600 580 9200 72.0 570960 439200 551680
MASS 2/3
MICH ' 22230 22250 24150 69.0 85.0 1534870 1919250 1769300
MINN : 59600 69000 69100 59.0 100.0 3309400 6009000 6034900
MISS 1/3 172 leo 135 47.0 36.0 89084 $9760 59805
MO t 25850 29700 24200 6160 7640 173+850 2059200 1919400
MONT 1/4? 1 li 11 7520 68.0 825 748 770
NEBR t 69100 69350 69300 85.0 99.0 5189500 6249650 6809400
NEV 2/8
NH 2/2
NJ val 103 95 90 B00 70.0 85858 69650 79560
N MEX 1/78 96 114 63 10540 90.0 109080 109260 69930
NY ist $73 640 620 7600 80.0 1740 439568 51200 470740
nc t 19880 19690 15540 8000 51.0 77.0 1509400 869190 118+580
N DAK 17% 191 237 240 4060 68.0 7060 79640 164116 16800
OHIO : 3820 39620 39570 10340 10560 10540 © 3930460 = 3804100 © 3744850
OKLA 1/8 106 95 70 95.0 82.0 109070 79790 $9530
OREG Aft 10 12 10 9000 9540 900 Lel4ao 950
a : 25150 1+160 1,120 9000 92.0 103500 1069720 1014920

1 ari

sc ifs 667 620 515 74.0 36.0 499356 229320 285325
S DAK : 10200 29156 20200 31.0 $9.0 379200 1269850 1494600
TENN 1/2 715 730 650 79.0 65.0 569485 479450 489750
TEX : 15550 19650 16350 12040 98.0 186000 161700 135000
UTAH I/t 15 13 146 90.0 89.0 10350 19157 19232
vT ass
vA t 610 S560 $80 7860 5560 479580 305800 499300
WASH 1/8 4h 48 45 10760 10040 49706 5088 49860
wWva 1st 61 54 58 8860 74.0 55368 39996 419930
wIS + 20220 2+750 29500 68.0 © 10460 1505960 286%000 2404000
WYO ist 22 30 e7 8740 85.0 8600 19914 29550 20322
us + 715300 709006 674764 87.9 91.0 10067 692665359 693700624 658239720

1/4 ESTIMATES FORK CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978

B-1

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY

DOMESTIC UNITS
¥.

[3 PRODUCTION
z TNOTCATED.
CROP AND UNIT > 1977 1977 : :
: : : 11978 1978
7,000 ACRES Y,000
CORN FOR GRAIN BU: 70,006 67,764 91.0 100.7 6,370,624 6,797,650 6,823,720
SORGHUM FOR GRATN ® : 14,065 «13,446 = 56.2 52.0 790,647 703,348 698,958
ALL WHEAT ” : 66,216 96,532 30.6 33.5 2,025,793 1,787,740 1,778,360

DURUM ” : 3/028 «= 3,978 (26.4 31.6 79,964 "126,335 125,665

OTHER SPRING “ : 14,772 13,710 28.4 29.8 419,116 417,720 409,020
RICE OAT V/: 2,289.0 3,039.0 4,412 4,534 99,223 137,244 «137,798
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 2/ BU ~ : 57,612 63,268 30.6 28.3 1,761,755 1,772,364 1,792,064
FLAXSEED ~ 2 1,414 926 11.4 12.6 16,105 (11,348 14, 705
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 1B: 1,516.4 1,515.6 2,457 2,608 ~=—«3,726,015 3,983,420 3,952,570
SUNFLOWER: 1B: » 2,667 1,252 1,271 2,760,470 3,390,400
COTTON BALE 1/:13,279.3 12, 293.5 520 425 14,389,211, 154.9 10,872.6
ALL HAY TOR: 61,254 2.17 2.27 131,057 3/138,018 139,159

ALFALEA “ 27,085 27,559 2.97 3.08 80,430 ~3/84,485 = B4,750

ALL OTHER ” : 33,408 33,695 1.52 1.61 50,627 3/53,533 54,409
ORY EDIBLE BEANS CHT Uf: 1,262.9 1,470.5 1,290 1,263 16,288 ~ 19,141 18,575
POTATOES :

FALL CWT: 1,138.7 -1,146.4 270 272 307,064 312,018

TOTAL " 2 1,358.7 1,362.2 261 260 354,576 353,680

SWEETPOTATOES " 2 M24 118.5 10 6 12,395 13,700 13,751
TOBACCO 1B 957.7 944.5 1,997 2,129 1,912,417 1,999,760 2,010,925
SUGARBEETS TON: 1,216.2 1,271.4 20.5 20.5 24,985 7 25,493 26,085
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR :

AND SEED " : 759.4 © 752.6 35.3 36.9 26,830 27,356 «= 27,046
HOPS wos 30.5 30.9 1,796 1,784 4,777 55,249 55,125
PASTURE AND RANGE 4/9 PCT: 76 7
APPLES, COML = LB 6,655,600 3/7,356,000 7,383,500
GRAPES TON: 4,297.8" 4,612.5 4,317.5
SWEET CHERRIES 5/ TON: 147.8 144.7
TART CHERRIES 57 LB : 210,900 174,200
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) TON: 61.0 65.0 65.0
CRANBERRIES BBL: 2,102.2 6/2,282.0 2,396.0
PECANS 1B: 236,600 ~ 221,300 212,300
FILBERTS TON: V8 ar) he
CITRUS FRUITS 7/ : 1977-78 1978-79 1978-79
‘ORANGES ~ ~ BOX “315,670 2, =
LEMONS. " : 26,100 26,000 _
Y7_ YIELD IN POUNDS, 27 1977 REVISED, 37 AUGUST 1, 1978. 47 PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF
FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1567-76 AVERAGE 1S 7B PERCENT. 5/ CARRIED FORWARD FROM CHERRY UTILIZATION REPORT

RELEASED OCTOBER 5, 1978. 6/ MID-AUGUST. 7/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND
ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
{DOMESTIC UNITS)

5 AREA HARVESTED: _——SYIELO PER ACRE: PRODUCTION
ROP AND UNIT Y INDICATED = > TROTCATED = + THOTCATED
1977; 1978 1/_3 (1977 w78 yy : !977 : y978
T,0O0 ACRES ‘i
OATS Bu: 13,447 14,951 55.6 49.9 747,914 595,879
BARLEY “t93490 93106 4318 48.1 438/429
WINTER WHEAT “48,419 38, 846 305 32.0 1,243,685
RYE “694 7,070 24.5 26.7 28,567
DRY EDIBLE PEAS CUT 2/: 167.0 197.0 613 1,750 33448
POTATOES :
WINTER 3/ qT: 13.4 12.9 199 203 2,621
SPRING “ > 914 90:7 250 199 18,028
SUMMER “op 15.2 12.2 191 187 21013
PEPPERMINT FOR OTL 1B: 86.9 104.4 51 57 5,919
SPEARMINT FOR OTL "ob ant 47.3 63 67 33185,
PEACHES ta 2,608,600
PEARS TON 698.7
APRICOTS “ 118.2
NECTARINES (CALIF) ” 145.0
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) “ 138.0
PLUMS (CALIF) " : 130.0
ALMONDS (CALIF) ok 170.0
WALNUTS "Oy 160.0

7” ESTIMATES CARRTED FORWARD FROW EARLIER FORECAST. 2/7” YIELD IN POUNDS.” 37° 1978 REVISED. —

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


INDEX

Alfalfa & Alfalfa Hay ....ccccc cece cee ce esac ee eeetescuseeeee B- 9
Apples .........0.-008 os B-18
Beans, Dry Edible .
Citrus Fruits ..... : B-17
Corn for Grain
Cotton .....
Cranberries
Filberts ...
Flaxseed .
Grapes ...
Hay, All...
Hay, Other .
Hops ......-
PapaydS ...ce ccc ee neee eee eeees
Pasture & Range Feed Condition
Peanuts for Nuts ...........44-
Pecans ..........
POTATOES Lo cece cece cece cence eeeeee
Potatoes, Types & Varieties Grown .
Prunes & Plums .
Rice .......6e
Sorghum for Grain ...
Soybeans for Beans ..
Sugarbeets ....... cece eens
Sugarcane for Sugar & Seed .
Sunflower. weeeeeeeeeeee
Sweetpotatoes .......-.
Tobacco by Class & Type
Tobacco by States ...

U. S. Summary ...
Wheat, All .......
Wheat, by Classes . . B~
Wheat, Durum ..... a B-
Wheat, Spring ...cc secs cece cece cece rete ence ee eeeteceeeeeeee B-

Prapraaa
=HNM—nm Soyo
CA]NOBAROCHROOH

3

+

7

PPHRWWHWSAGAMNND

rrpropdd

7

PEPROBMVDAVMDBVMMDDHH MWD

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-22 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


ALL OTHER HAY

STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED + YIELO : PRODUCTION
1 7 7 TNO ¢ t ? IND ¢ t : IND
t 1976 ¢ 1977 4 1978 t 1976 1 1977 1 1978 1976 1977 4 1978
1 T+000 ACKES TONS T9000 TONS
4
ALA a 650 630 650 1.70 1.60 1.70 19105 19008
ARIZ 1st 38 40 38 2.50 2640 2.50 95 96
ARK t 680 710 15 1.60 1.70 1460 19088 19207
CALIF ot 530 530 520 1.80 Leas 956 19060
COLO ' 660 625 670 1.35 1.35 691 813
CONN 178 66 63 6) 1260 1.80 106 13
OEL Ist 41s 16 15 1.90 1.60 29 26
FLA st 219 226 226 1.95 1.95 427 452
Ga Hi 450 470 475 2430 2.35 19035 752
IOAHO 290 296 299 2400 2410 580 607
TLL t 460 460 480 1.90 2.00 87e 897
IND t 500 475 470 1.90 1.95 950 998
Towa : 640 500 540 2.20 2.30 19408 19100
KANS : 19275 19280 19240 1640 1.40 19785 ae1l2
KY : 19330 19360 19390 1480 1,80 29394 29448
La t 362 362 347 1.90 1.95 688 688
MAINE 1/8 192 192 19) 2.00 1.50 384 288
MO t 180 175 162 2010 2.20 378 333
MASS 1/3 % 92 90 2.00 1.90 188 175
MICH + 310 300 290 1665 1680 si2 405
MINN a 19060 940 920 1410 1.70 19166 19316
MISS 2/t 650 650 624 1.70 1.75 19105 10138
moO : 29850 24880 24900 1.35 1.65 39848 49176
MONT : 19040 19070 19140 1.35 1.40 16404 19391
NEBR : 29150 29130 20150 9685 0.95 29628 20026
NEV : 260 240 270 1.20 1.20 336 276
Nn ve mm 70 68 1.80 1690 133 133
NJ ist oe 65 66 1.60 1695 109 126
N MEX I/t o7 70 n 1.20 1.20 80 84
NY 1 19410 35360 14400 1.90 1.85 29679 2e312 29590
NC : 335 334 343 1440 1.60 409 484 549
NOAK 3 15600 19540 14580 0.99 1.25 19586 19309 14938
OHIO t 990 950 950 1695 2.20 19931 19758 29090
OKLA s 19260 19375, 19200 1.45 1.30 19627 29200 14560
OREG g 640 615 625 1460 1.70 19024 986 19063
PA 2 19060 19090 14090 1680 1.85 15906 1744 20017
Ri iss 6 S Ss 1.67 1470 i0 8 9
sc : 21s 220 222 2400 2.00 430 396 44a
S$ OAK 4 29000 24060 2100 0.50 1,26 14000 20266 29520
TENN a 1115 10125 44130 1445 1445 19617 19575, 19639
TEX Fy 19950 29070 29150 2.20 1.70 49290 3983u 39655
UTAN 1st 120 119 lal 1.75 1670 210 214 206
vt vet 360 345 350 1.80 1.70 648 535 595
va t 865 aso 900 1,25 1.75 19u81 935 19575
WASH 1 309 373 381 1.75 1.80 646 67 686
weVA t 515 500 S00 1.30 1,50 670 650 750
WIS 8 970 940 920 1.55 2025 19506 19927 29070
WYO 2 70 620 660 1.10 1elS 770 589 759
us 2 339660 339408 334695 1.49 1.61 509178 509627 549409.

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAK CARRIEO FORWARD FROM EAKLIEX FORECASTs
2/ BEGINNING 1978 INCLUDES ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CROP_REPORT SUMMARY

The "All Crops" production index (1967=100) at 128 is 1 point below the record
set in 1977, according to the Crop Reporting Board. Feed grains, hay and forage,
and oi] crops are at record high levels.

INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1968-78 (1967=100)

5 PRODUCTION
3 A > HAY: 3 : 3 3
year i ALL? FEED : Foop : sugar : : Pon
: oy i orains ; AND.  crarns : crops + COTTON : TOBACCO:  cpope
1968: 103 9 9 106 13.148 87 114
1969; 104 99 100 9 1B 37 31 116
1970: 100 89 100 9 439 97 W7
1971; 12 16 105 7116145 86 121
197200; (113 2 104 1027s 88 131
1973; «119 115709 14001125 88 155
1974; 110 93104 120 108188 101 127
1975; 12] 114108 142-1302 10 153
1976: (121 120 102 11281 108 132
1977; 129 124 108 13107195 98 v7
1978; (128 130113 1230-11916 102 7

i INCLUDES HAY SEEDS, PASTURE SEEDS AND COVER-CROP SEEDS, AND SOME MISCELLANEOUS
CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with related
information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were Prepared and
adopted by the Crop Reporting Board which consists of commodity statisticians from
Washington headquarters and the State Statistical Offices.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:

8B. M. Graham, Chairman,
M. L. Koehn, Secretary,
J. W. Kirkbride,  F. E. Rolf,
APPROVED: 0. J. Fedewa, F. T. Galloway,
R. P. Small, D. J. Buckner,
H. J. DeLong, W. N. Dowdy,
4 J. R. Garrett, J. R. Gibson,
y, YG D. E. Hamilton, H. R. Holden,
fea C. J. Koines, S. R. Koyle,
L. 0. Larson, R. L. Schulte,
L. E. Snipes, C. D. Spilimann,
F. A, Vogel, C. A. VanLahr, Jr.,
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE W. W, Wilken, W. W. Wile.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


APPLESs CUMMERCIAL Vv
’ PROOUCTION : PRODUCTION

cROP t POUNDS. Hi 42 LBs FOULVALENT

AND ' TOTAL 2¢_ Ss INDICATED: TOTAL. SINDICATEO

STATE yi 976 1977 +} 1978 976 1977 978

t MILLION UNITS 19000 UNITS
ALL COMMERCIAL APPLES t

ARK Mi t1.0 2400 1420 262 s7l 333
CALIF t 48020 48! 52000 119429 115429 124381
coLo + 7400 75.0 5000 19762 19786 19190
CONN 1 3360 4600 46.0 786 19095 14095
vEL we 1340 1365 1465 310 321 345
GA vet 22.0 2200 2400 S26 S26 $71
IDAHO ‘ 125.0 12540 29976 21024 2,976
Tk : 86.0 9200 29048 2eS71 2190
1NO t 25.0 7040 595 19238 19667
10wa ve 6.0 1065 143 255 250
KANS we hed 1365 27. 381 321
KY vt 14.0 1560 333 524 357
MAINE i 73500 7500 15786 29190 19786
MD 1 63.0 8000 19500 19667 14905
MASS 2 9500 10160 29262 29262 29405
MICH ’ 480.0 77000 119429 139571 18333
MINN wi 23.5 2560 560 474 $95
“0 t 50.0 56.0 4700 19190 19381 1s119
NH : 57.0 5860 6060 19357 16381 19429
nud 3 9060 130.0 9020 291463 32095 29143
N MEX vet 30.0 3100 3340 714 738 786
NY 1 820-0 90000 1900000 199524 219429 235810
NC 1 265.0 27000 29560 69310 69429 79024
On1O : 105.0 6540 140.0 29500 19548 39333
UREG : 170.0 14760 150.0 41048 39500 39571
Pa : 360.0 460.0 40000 as571 109952 99524
RI , S.3 S05 SS 131 131
sc we 23.0 2540 1920 S95 452
TENN get 8.0 1060 7.5 238 179
UTAH wet 40.0 4760 3500 Lell? 833
vt + 47.0 4 48.0 1eild 19143
VA % 212.0 29000 450.0 60905 1097146
WASH $ 2930820 29060.0 2925040 349953 499048 53.572
Ww oVA t 200.0 195.0 240.0 40762 41643 Se7l4
wis ' 52.0 56.0 68.0 19238 19333 15619
us 3 6947962 6165566 7938305 1549269 1589467 1759796

17 IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES.

2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE
(MILLION POUNDS) 4 UNITED STATES 1976~6.39 1977=29.64

3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CRANBERRIES
PRODUCTION
STATE TOTAL TOTAL z THD —
1976 1977 : 1978
A 7,090 BARRELS
MASS 935.0 875.0 1,010.0
NJ 276.0 157.0 230.0
OREG 89.3 80.2 91.0
WASH 103.0 136.0 135.0
WIS : 7,004.0 854.0 930.0
US : 2,407.3 2,102.2 2,396.0
CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 B-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


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Flue-Cured tobacco is forecast at 1227 million pounds (557 thousand MT), 9 percent
above 1977. Harvest of flue-cured tobacco was nearing completion by the end of September, @ few
days later than normal. Flue-cured markets continued active during September and record high
prices were received by producers.

Fire-Cured growers expect to harvest a crop totaling 50.6 million pounds (23.0 thousand MT),
3 percent Tess than in 1977, A 10 percent decline in acreage for harvest was partially offset by
an increase in yield per acre.

Burley production is forecast at 622 million pounds (282 thousand MT), the same as the
September 1 forecast, but 1 percent above 1977's production. Weather during September in Kentucky
was almost ideal for cutting and curing. The dry conditions limited houseburn damage. More than
90 percent of the crop in Kentucky was cut and housed by October 1.

Southern Maryland tobacco production is forecast at 31.1 million pounds (14.1 thousand MT),
up 3 percent from Tast year.

Dark Air-Cured prospects indicate a 22.1 million pound crop (10.0 thousand MT), an increase
of 4 percent from the 1977 production of 21.2 million pounds (9.61 thousand MT).

All Cigar Type production is forecast at 57.7 million pounds (26.2 thousand MT), 7 percent
below a year earlier. Production of cigar-filler types is down 3 percent, cigar-binder types down
9 percent and cigar-wrapper types down 18 percent.

SUGARBEETS: The 1978 sugarbeet production is forecast at 26.1 million tons (23.7 million metric
tons), up 2 percent from September 1 and up 4 percent from the 1977 crop, The in-
crease from last year is due to a 5 percent increase in acreage for harvest.

Harvest of beets continues throughout California except in the Imperial Valley where plant-
ing of the 1979 crop is virtually completed. The Colorado crop made good development with little
or no frost damage reported during September, Harvest is expected to start soon in Idaho, a week
to 10 days ahead of last year.

Lifting of beets was underway by mid-September in Minnesota and by the end of September in
North Dakota. Late September rains improved in Michigan crop and harvesting began the first week
of October.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 27.0 million tons (24.5

million metric tons), down 1 percent from the September 1 forecast, but 1 percent
above the 1977 production. Average yield per acre is estimated at 35.9 tons compared with 35.3
‘ons in .

Sugarcane made good growth during September in Florida and Louisiana. Cutting cane for
planting continues in both States, but planting has been slowed in Louisiana by excessive rains.
Cutting for grinding is expected to start by mid-October. The cane crop in the lower Rio Grande
Valley of Texas made good progress during September and harvest is expected to begin the end of
October. Weather in Hawaii during September was generally favorable for sugarcane growth.

HOPS: Production of hops is estimated at 55.1 million pounds (25.0 thousand metric t
0 - . ons), onl
slightly below last month's forecast but 1 percent ahead of the 1977 total. ae y
prospects in Idaho and Washington nearly offset declines in California and Oregon. There were
aaa ggusand acres (2.5 fhousand hectares) harvested, slightly below earlier expectations, but
acres more than in « Yields averaged 1784 pounds
pounds peracce Tect fear. g pe per acre, down from the 1796

Harvest was finished by the end of September in al] Producing areas. Rains in Oregon and
Washington reduced yields on some varieties and made harvest and drying difficult. °

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


ORANGES : The first forecast for the 1978-79 season points to a crop of 215 million boxes (8.47

million metric tons), 2 percent below last season's crop and 12 percent less than the
record crop of the 1976-77 season. In Florida, the all orange forecast is set at 167 million
boxes, 800 thousand boxes less than last season. Production of early and mid-season varieties in
Florida at 95.0 million boxes is 8 percent above last season but 17 percent below the 1976-77 crop.
Valencia production in Florida is expected to total 72.0 million boxes, 9 percent less than last
season but about the same as the 1976-77 crop. In California, the Navel crop is placed at 21.0
million boxes, 5 percent above last season, while the Valencia crop is forecast at 17.0 million
boxes, 23 percent betow the 1977-78 crop. The Arizona orange crop at 3.55 million boxes is down
5 percent from last season. The Texas crop is expected to total 6.30 million boxes, 3 percent
above the previous crop year but 9 percent below the 1976-77 crop.

In Florida, citrus trees are in generally excellent condition. The current crop bloomed
somewhat later than normal; however, a very uniform set developed. The set is up from the pre-
vious season for early mid varieties but is well below last season for Valencias which were still
reflecting the effects of the mid-January 1977 freeze. All varieties in Florida are slow in ma-
turing. Fruit size is also below average.

The California Navel crop appears to be of good size and quality. Arizona groves are in
good condition with some early oranges beginning to show color break.

In Texas, orange trees have a good fruit set. Harvest has started with the size of early
oranges smaller than expected.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELO: The ati orange juice yield for 1978-79 is projected at
1.29 gallons of 45 degree brix concentrate per box.

The yield from the 1977-78 crop was 1.23 gallons per box.

GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects for the 1978-79 season (excluding California's “other areas“) point to a

68.4 million box crop (2.55 million.metric tons), 3 percent less than last season
and 4 percent below the 1976-77 crop. California "other areas" grapefruit production, which will
be forecast as of December 1, had 3.20 million boxes last season,

Florida's grapefruit crop, forecast at 51.0 million boxes, is 1 percent less than last season's
output. The crop is maturing later than normal. The Texas crop at 11.0 million boxes is down 8
percent from last season. The fruit set was erratic but has sized well to date. Arizona growers
expect to harvest 2.60 million boxes, 10 percent less than last season. Good color and quality
is reported. The California Desert Valley crop is placed at 3.80 million boxes, 12 percent below
the 1977-78 crop. Light harvest has begun in Florida, Arizona and California.

LEMONS: The Arizona-California lemon crop is forecast at 26.0 million boxes (896 thousand metric
tons), slightly less than last season and the same as the 1976-77 crop. Harvest is

underway. Some lemons in southern California have sunburn becuase of the recent heat wave.

Grades are fair to poor and sizes are small in that area. In the desert areas of California

and Arizona, grades are good, condition is excellent, and size is improving.

TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-Early citrus fruit, is forecast at 3.60 million
boxes (147 thousand metric tons), 27 percent below last season and 25 percent less

than was harvested in 1976-77.

TANGERINES: The tangerine crop is forecast at 6.15 million boxes (244 thousand metric tons),

14 percent above last season. The Florida forecast of 3.80 million boxes is for
that portion of the crop expected to reach a size of 270 fruit per 4/5 bushel carton by December 1.
(An estimate for the utilized crop will be reflected in the February’ 1979 Crop Production release.)

California's prospects are for a tangerine crop of 1.70 million boxes, 13 percent above last
season. The Arizona crop at 650 thousand boxes is 7 percent betow last season.

TEMPLES: Florida Temples are forecast at 4.80 million boxes (196 thousand metric tons), down
2 percent from last season.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1978 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA