Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released January 12, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department 

of Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down 2 Percent from December

The United States all orange forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 8.79 million tons, down 2 percent from the 

December 1 forecast but 7 percent above the 2009-2010 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 140 million 

boxes (6.30 million tons), is down 2 percent the December 1 forecast but 5 percent above last season’s final utilization. 

Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 67.0 million boxes (3.02 million tons), down 1 percent 

from December and 2 percent lower than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 73.0 million boxes 

(3.29 million tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 12 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. Several days 

of sub-freezing temperatures were recorded during the month of December throughout the citrus producing region of 

Florida. The NASS Florida Field Office will release a Citrus Freeze Damage Report on January 18. This report will be 

based on a special survey conducted January 10 through 11. 

All orange production in California is forecast at 2.42 million tons (60.5 million boxes), unchanged from the October 1 

forecast but up 14 percent from last season. The California navel forecast, at 1.86 million tons (46.5 million boxes), is 

unchanged from the previous forecast but up 17 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. Valencia oranges are forecast at 

560,000 tons (14.0 million boxes), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 7 percent from last season. Wet weather 

and colder temperatures in December slowed the harvest. In Texas orange production is forecast at 1.64 million boxes 

(70,000 tons), down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up slightly from last season’s final utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 1.61 gallons per box at 

42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the December 1 forecast but up 3 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.56 gallons 

per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.52 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last season’s yield of 

1.51 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.70 gallons per box, 4 percent higher than last year’s final yield 

of 1.63 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of 

the past several seasons.
2 Crop Production (January 2011)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

This report was approved on January 12, 2011.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Darci L. Vetter

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Hubert Hamer
Crop Production (January 2011) 3

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted 

January 1, 2011 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2009 and 2010 .................................................. 5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) ........................................................... 6

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)...................................................................... 7

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)................................................................ 8

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) .......................................................................... 9

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units).................................................................... 10

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) ........................................................................ 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation............................................................................................................................................ 12

Departure from Normal Temperature ................................................................................................................................... 12

December Weather Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 13

December Agricultural Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 13

Crop Comments.................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15

Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16
4 Crop Production (January 2011)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted 

January 1, 2011

[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]

Crop and State

Utilized production boxes 1 Utilized production ton equivalent

2009-2010 2010-2011 2009-2010 2010-2011

(1,000 boxes) (1,000 boxes) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Oranges

Early, mid, and navel 2

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Valencia

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

All

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Grapefruit

White

 Florida ...............................................

Colored

 Florida ...............................................

All

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Tangerines and mandarins

Arizona 3...............................................

California 3............................................

Florida ...................................................

United States ........................................

Lemons

Arizona .................................................

California ..............................................

United States ........................................

Tangelos

Florida ...................................................

42,500

68,600

1,360

112,460

14,000

65,000

275

79,275

56,500

133,600

1,635

191,735

6,000

14,300

4,200

20,300

5,600

30,100

350

9,900

4,450

14,700

2,200

20,500

22,700

900

46,500

67,000

1,360

114,860

14,000

73,000

280

87,280

60,500

140,000

1,640

202,140

5,600

14,000

3,500

19,600

5,700

28,800

300

9,600

4,200

14,100

2,500

21,000

23,500

1,000

1,594

3,087

58

4,739

525

2,925

12

3,462

2,119

6,012

70

8,201

255

608

141

863

224

1,228

13

371

211

595

84

779

863

41

1,860

3,015

58

4,933

560

3,285

12

3,857

2,420

6,300

70

8,790

238

595

140

833

228

1,201

12

384

200

596

100

840

940

45

1 Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80 (75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80 (67 prior to the 

2010-2011 crop year), Florida-85, Texas-80; lemons-80 (76 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins in California-80 

(75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-95.

2 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines 

in Texas and Temples in Florida.

3

Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production (January 2011) 5

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2009 and 2010

State

May 1 December 1

2009 2010 2009 2010

(1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Alabama ....................

Arizona ......................

Arkansas ...................

California ...................

Colorado ....................

Connecticut ...............

Delaware ...................

Florida .......................

Georgia .....................

Idaho .........................

Illinois ........................

Indiana ......................

Iowa ...........................

Kansas ......................

Kentucky ....................

Louisiana ...................

Maine ........................

Maryland ....................

Massachusetts ...........

Michigan ....................

Minnesota ..................

Mississippi .................

Missouri .....................

Montana ....................

Nebraska ...................

Nevada ......................

New Hampshire .........

New Jersey ................

New Mexico ...............

New York ...................

North Carolina ...........

North Dakota .............

Ohio ...........................

Oklahoma ..................

Oregon ......................

Pennsylvania .............

Rhode Island .............

South Carolina ...........

South Dakota .............

Tennessee .................

Texas ........................

Utah ...........................

Vermont .....................

Virginia ......................

Washington ...............

West Virginia .............

Wisconsin ..................

Wyoming ...................

United States .............

375

50

570

470

400

9

4

58

238

450

300

185

750

1,350

465

60

18

111

12

450

790

214

2,050

590

935

170

8

26

105

420

311

700

325

1,000

270

700

1

115

1,900

552

2,100

285

37

450

350

156

950

230

22,065

192

60

340

432

650

14

4

40

210

775

310

198

420

1,200

1,006

60

34

60

9

330

630

90

1,250

720

1,000

310

7

46

125

400

296

1,310

350

650

420

680

2

130

2,190

678

1,100

245

50

350

280

125

753

400

20,931

1,700

500

2,900

2,400

2,500

71

29

535

1,374

2,750

1,400

1,360

3,100

5,400

4,905

710

134

350

75

1,451

3,570

1,058

8,280

4,100

4,490

1,012

45

102

570

1,582

1,523

5,500

2,013

4,435

2,200

2,400

8

590

8,290

3,219

7,700

1,330

204

1,940

1,418

938

3,021

2,040

107,222

1,200

365

2,050

1,850

2,000

45

19

477

1,360

2,300

1,310

1,200

3,050

4,500

4,392

700

120

310

63

2,000

3,700

1,175

6,500

5,500

4,700

819

40

110

520

1,744

1,157

5,370

1,790

4,550

2,100

1,950

8

490

7,850

2,985

9,500

1,050

180

1,660

1,607

790

3,278

1,700

102,134
6 Crop Production (January 2011)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2010 2011 2010 2011

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all ................................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all ............................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all ...........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all ........................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 2....................................................................

2,872

88,192

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

3,138

390

3,636

1,211

5,404

(NA)

53,603

37,335

2,570

13,698

1,448.8

(X)

421

50.5

1,288.0

2.3

175.0

77,404

1,951.5

10,973.2

10,769.0

204.2

1,171.4

(NA)

(NA)

31.2

1,911.4

756.0

658.0

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,020.6

88.8

38.1

893.7

(NA)

119.8

(NA)

40,990

2,465

81,446

5,567

59,862

19,956

39,906

1,263

363

3,615

265

4,808

273

47,637

31,749

2,529

13,359

1,431.0

(X)

418

48.1

1,255.0

2.2

167.7

76,616

1,873.8

10,706.7

10,505.0

201.7

1,155.7

881.2

337.5

17.9

1,842.7

711.4

634.0

(NA)

6.3

31.3

71.3

1,004.3

85.9

37.1

881.3

18.6

116.9

0.5

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.
Crop Production (January 2011) 7

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per acre Production

2010 2011 2010 2011

(1,000) (1,000)

Grains and hay

Barley ................................................................................... bushels

Corn for grain ........................................................................ bushels

Corn for silage ............................................................................tons

Hay, all .......................................................................................tons

 Alfalfa .....................................................................................tons

 All other ..................................................................................tons

Oats ...................................................................................... bushels

Proso millet ........................................................................... bushels

Rice 1........................................................................................... cwt

Rye ....................................................................................... bushels

Sorghum for grain ................................................................. bushels

Sorghum for silage ......................................................................tons

Wheat, all ............................................................................. bushels

 Winter ............................................................................... bushels

 Durum ............................................................................... bushels

 Other spring ...................................................................... bushels

Oilseeds

Canola ...................................................................................pounds

Cottonseed .................................................................................tons

Flaxseed ............................................................................... bushels

Mustard seed .........................................................................pounds

Peanuts .................................................................................pounds

Rapeseed ..............................................................................pounds

Safflower ...............................................................................pounds

Soybeans for beans .............................................................. bushels

Sunflower ..............................................................................pounds

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 1............................................................................... bales

 Upland 1................................................................................ bales

 American Pima 1................................................................... bales

Sugarbeets .................................................................................tons

Sugarcane ..................................................................................tons

Tobacco .................................................................................pounds

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas 1.................................................................. cwt

Dry edible beans 1....................................................................... cwt

Dry edible peas 1......................................................................... cwt

Lentils 1........................................................................................ cwt

Wrinkled seed peas ..................................................................... cwt

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ......................................................................pounds

Hops ......................................................................................pounds

Peppermint oil ........................................................................pounds

Potatoes, all ................................................................................. cwt

 Spring ...................................................................................... cwt

 Summer ................................................................................... cwt

 Fall .......................................................................................... cwt

Spearmint oil .........................................................................pounds

Sweet potatoes ............................................................................ cwt

Taro (Hawaii) .........................................................................pounds

73.1

152.8

19.3

2.43

3.40

1.95

64.3

31.8

6,725

28.0

71.8

12.5

46.4

46.8

42.4

46.1

1,713

(X)

21.7

870

3,311

1,891

1,320

43.5

1,460

821

814

1,184

27.6

33.5

2,133

1,666

1,726

1,999

1,365

(NA)

1,250

2,093

89

395

289

311

409

125

204

(NA)

180,268

12,446,865

107,314

145,556

67,903

77,653

81,190

11,535

243,104

7,431

345,395

3,420

2,208,391

1,485,236

107,180

615,975

2,450,947

6,191.0

9,056

41,861

4,155,600

4,160

221,335

3,329,341

2,735,570

18,314.5

17,817.0

497.5

31,945

29,535

719,786

237

31,801

14,221

8,657

580

7,900

65,492.6

6,363

397,077

24,820

11,530

360,727

2,318

23,845

3,900

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Yield in pounds.
8 Crop Production (January 2011)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2010 2011 2010 2011

(hectares) (hectares) (hectares) (hectares)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2......................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 3....................................................................

1,162,270

35,690,420

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,269,920

157,830

1,471,450

490,080

2,186,940

(NA)

21,692,600

15,109,100

1,040,050

5,543,440

586,310

(X)

170,370

20,440

521,240

930

70,820

31,324,620

789,750

4,440,740

4,358,110

82,640

474,050

(NA)

(NA)

12,630

773,520

305,950

266,290

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

413,030

35,940

15,420

361,670

(NA)

48,480

(NA)

16,588,240

997,560

32,960,380

2,252,910

24,225,550

8,075,990

16,149,560

511,120

146,900

1,462,950

107,240

1,945,750

110,480

19,278,220

12,848,500

1,023,460

5,406,250

579,110

(X)

169,160

19,470

507,890

890

67,870

31,005,730

758,310

4,332,890

4,251,270

81,630

467,700

356,610

136,560

7,240

745,720

287,900

256,570

(NA)

2,550

12,660

28,850

406,430

34,760

15,010

356,650

7,530

47,310

190

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2

Total may not add due to rounding.

3 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production (January 2011) 9

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Yield and Production – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per acre Production

2010 2011 2010 2011

(metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons)

Grains and hay

Barley ..................................................................

Corn for grain .......................................................

Corn for silage .....................................................

Hay, all 1..............................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................

 All other ...........................................................

Oats .....................................................................

Proso millet ..........................................................

Rice .....................................................................

Rye ......................................................................

Sorghum for grain ................................................

Sorghum for silage ...............................................

Wheat, all 1..........................................................

 Winter ..............................................................

 Durum ..............................................................

 Other spring .....................................................

Oilseeds

Canola .................................................................

Cottonseed ..........................................................

Flaxseed ..............................................................

Mustard seed .......................................................

Peanuts ...............................................................

Rapeseed ............................................................

Safflower .............................................................

Soybeans for beans .............................................

Sunflower ............................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 1..........................................................

 Upland .............................................................

 American Pima ................................................

Sugarbeets ..........................................................

Sugarcane ...........................................................

Tobacco ...............................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ............................................

Dry edible beans ..................................................

Dry edible peas ....................................................

Lentils ..................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas .............................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ....................................................

Hops ....................................................................

Peppermint oil ......................................................

Potatoes, all 1......................................................

 Spring ..............................................................

 Summer ...........................................................

 Fall ..................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................

Sweet potatoes ....................................................

Taro (Hawaii) .......................................................

3.93

9.59

43.21

5.45

7.63

4.36

2.31

1.78

7.54

1.76

4.51

28.08

3.12

3.15

2.85

3.10

1.92

(X)

1.36

0.98

3.71

2.12

1.48

2.92

1.64

0.92

0.91

1.33

61.96

75.13

2.39

1.48

1.93

2.24

1.53

(NA)

1.41

2.35

0.10

44.32

32.39

34.83

45.88

0.14

22.86

(NA)

3,924,870

316,164,930

97,353,620

132,046,180

61,600,570

70,445,620

1,178,470

261,610

11,027,010

188,760

8,773,440

3,102,570

60,102,550

40,421,500

2,916,960

16,764,090

1,111,730

5,616,380

230,030

18,990

1,884,950

1,890

100,400

90,609,810

1,240,830

3,987,510

3,879,190

108,320

28,980,020

26,793,700

326,490

10,750

1,442,470

645,050

392,670

26,310

3,580

29,710

2,890

18,011,110

1,125,820

522,990

16,362,300

1,050

1,081,590

1,770

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Production may not add due to rounding.
10 Crop Production (January 2011)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2010 2011

(1,000) (1,000)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit ...........................................................tons

Lemons ..............................................................tons

Oranges .............................................................tons

Tangelos (Florida) ..............................................tons

Tangerines and mandarins .................................tons

Noncitrus

Apples ...........................................................pounds

Apricots ..............................................................tons

Bananas (Hawaii) ..........................................pounds

Grapes ...............................................................tons

Olives (California) ..............................................tons

Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................................pounds

Peaches .............................................................tons

Pears .................................................................tons

Prunes, dried (California) ...................................tons

Prunes and plums (excludes California) .............tons

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ........................pounds

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...............................tons

Pecans, in-shell .............................................pounds

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ..............................tons

Maple syrup .................................................. gallons

1,228

863

8,201

41

595

9,413.5

67.3

6,875.4

140.0

1,126.0

854.8

150.0

13.4

1,650,000

27

258,300

510

1,955

1,201

940

8,790

45

596

1 Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.
Crop Production (January 2011) 11

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2010 2011

(metric tons) (metric tons)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit ..............................................................

Lemons .................................................................

Oranges .................................................................

Tangelos (Florida) .................................................

Tangerines and mandarins ....................................

Noncitrus

Apples ...................................................................

Apricots .................................................................

Bananas (Hawaii) ..................................................

Grapes ..................................................................

Olives (California) ..................................................

Papayas (Hawaii) ..................................................

Peaches ................................................................

Pears .....................................................................

Prunes, dried (California) .......................................

Prunes and plums (excludes California) .................

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) .................................

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..................................

Pecans, in-shell .....................................................

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ..................................

Maple syrup ...........................................................

1,114,020

782,900

7,439,820

37,190

539,770

4,269,890

61,050

6,237,260

127,010

1,021,480

775,460

136,080

12,160

748,430

24,490

117,160

462,660

9,770

1,089,530

852,750

7,974,150

40,820

540,680

1 Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.
12 Crop Production (January 2011)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production (January 2011) 13

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

December Weather Summary

During December, two large-scale atmospheric phenomena strongly influenced weather patterns across the United States 

– La Niña and a blocking high-pressure system over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The result was stormy weather in the 

western and north-central United States, along with drier-than-normal conditions from the central and southern Plains into 

the Southeast. In addition, the North Atlantic block displaced cold air southward, locking frigid air into place across the 

Southeast. In contrast, mild weather accompanied the western storminess.

Western storms were most intense from central and southern California to the western slopes of the central Rockies. In 

those areas, heavy precipitation bolstered high-elevation snow packs and improved water-supply prospects, but also 

caused flash flooding and mudslides.

Meanwhile, little precipitation fell from southern sections of Arizona and New Mexico to the central and southern Plains. 

Between November 28 and January 2, the portion of the winter wheat crop rated in very poor to poor condition climbed 

from 25 to 33 percent in Kansas and from 8 to 19 percent in Oklahoma. On the northern Plains, however, a 

well-established snow cover helped to protect winter wheat from periodic weather extremes.

Farther east, record-setting snowfall accumulated in the upper Midwest, while cold but relatively benign weather covered 

the central and eastern Corn Belt. The upper Midwestern snow and cold maintained stress on livestock and hampered rural 

travel. The Northeast also experienced several episodes of bad weather, with a post-holiday storm causing major travel 

disruptions.

Elsewhere, multiple freezes struck Florida’s winter agricultural region, causing extensive damage to vegetables and 

requiring growers to employ a variety measures in an effort to protect citrus, sugarcane, strawberries, ornamentals, and 

nursery crops. December temperatures were the lowest on record in dozens of communities in Florida and elsewhere in 

the Southeast, eclipsing standards that had been mostly set in 1935, 1963, or 1989.

December Agricultural Summary

With the exception of portions of New England and the Great Lakes region, temperatures east of the Great Plains were 

cooler than normal during December. Most notably, average recordings across much of Florida fell to as many as 

12 degrees below normal, where hard freezes and frosts throughout the month damaged unharvested sugarcane and winter 

vegetables and left producers scrambling to rapidly harvest as much of their crops as possible before they lost them 

entirely.

Elsewhere, unseasonably dry conditions on the central and southern Great Plains limited the amount of snow cover and 

available soil moisture in many winter wheat fields, leaving producers concerned about the crop’s vulnerability to wind 

and freeze damage. Similarly, dry conditions in portions of the Southeast hampered the establishment of small grains.

Areas west of the Rocky Mountains received above average precipitation during the month. In California, a steady series 

of strong winter storms inundated the State with rain and snow totaling more than 800 percent of normal in some areas, 

triggering widespread flooding and mudslides, but boosting high-elevation snow packs.

Crop Comments

Grapefruit: The 2010-2011 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.20 million tons, virtually unchanged from the 

December 1 forecast but down 2 percent from the 2009-2010 crop.

Florida grapefruit production is forecast at 19.6 million boxes (833,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 

down 3 percent from last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.60 million boxes (238,000 tons), down 

7 percent from the 2009-2010 season. White grapefruit droppage is expected to be above average. The colored grapefruit 

forecast, at 14.0 million boxes (595,000 tons), is 2 percent below last season.

Texas grapefruit production is forecast at 5.70 million boxes, up 4 percent from the October 1 forecast and up 2 percent 
14 Crop Production (January 2011)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

from last season. Grapefruit production in California is forecast at 140,000 tons (3.50 million boxes), down 8 percent from 

the previous forecast and down 1 percent from the 2009-2010 season.

Lemons: The forecast for the 2010-2011 United States lemon crop is 940,000 tons, down 1 percent from the October 1 

forecast but up 9 percent from the 2009-2010 final utilization. California production is forecast at 840,000 tons 

(21.0 million boxes), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 8 percent from last season. Harvest of the new season 

crop continued in the Desert Region as well as the San Joaquin Valley. Lemon production in Arizona is forecast at 

100,000 tons (2.50 million boxes), down 7 percent from the October 1 forecast but up 19 percent from last season.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), down 9 percent from the December 1 forecast 

but up 11 percent from last season’s final utilization. The drop rate is expected to be the lowest on record.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 596,000 tons, down 4 percent 

from the December 1 forecast and virtually unchanged from the 2009-2010 crop. The California tangerine and mandarin 

crop is forecast at 384,000 tons (9.60 million boxes), down 4 percent from the October 1 forecast but up 4 percent from 

last season. Florida’s tangerine crop is forecast at 4.20 million boxes (200,000 tons), down 5 percent from the previous 

forecast and down 6 percent from the previous season. Arizona’s tangerine and mandarin forecast is 12,000 tons 

(300,000 boxes), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 8 percent from the 2009-2010 final utilization.

Florida citrus: Rainfall was scattered and sparse, with only one report of precipitation exceeding an inch in the citrus 

growing region. High temperatures ranged from the 40s to the 80s. Two major cold fronts brought lows down into the 

teens and twenties in some areas. Freeze damage surveys will take place to determine tree condition following these 

events. Drought conditions were predominant across the entire citrus producing region, with the most severe being 

reported by growers in Indian River, Brevard, and St. Lucie Counties.

Grove practices included fertilizer applications, lime applications, and irrigation. Caretakers continued to survey groves 

for greening, treat trees for the citrus psyllid, and remove infected trees.

Arizona citrus: A few of the citrus growing areas experienced colder weather the last week of December, however the 

crop seemed to escape any damage. The size and quality of the State’s citrus crops were normal. 

California citrus: The navel orange, mandarin, grapefruit and lemon harvests continued in the San Joaquin Valley at a 

slower pace due to wet conditions. Lemon and pummelo harvests continued in the Desert Region.

California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Pruning and other maintenance continued in orchards and vineyards as conditions 

permitted due to ongoing wet weather. The fall grape harvest came to an end across the State. The olive harvest continued. 

Bareroot blueberry, raspberry, and boysenberry plants were shipped from Tulare County to in-state and out-of-state 

growers. Kiwifruit, as well as fruit and nut nursery plants, continued to be transplanted in Sutter County.

Almond pruning and orchard removal were underway in the Central Valley. Orchard maintenance took place as field 

conditions allowed.

Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on farms December 1, 2010 totaled 102 million tons, down 5 percent from a year 

ago. Disappearance from May-December 2010 totaled 64.4 million tons, compared with 62.5 million tons for the same 

period a year ago.

Compared with December 1, 2009, hay stocks decreased in most of the States. Stock decreases in many areas were 

attributed to lower production and cattle producers feeding hay earlier than normal due to dry conditions. Stocks in 

Connecticut and Delaware showed the largest decreases at 37 and 34 percent, respectively. Only 11 States had higher hay 

stock levels from last year. The greatest hay stock percentage increases occurred in Michigan and Montana where hay 

production also increased for 2010.
Crop Production (January 2011) 15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which 

produces about 75 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season 

based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or 

special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and 

subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous 

components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer 

surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in 

September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were 

also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural 

Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month 

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in 

September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including 

information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization 

and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square 

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production 

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage 

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean 

Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 

final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing 

recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 3.5 percent. However, if you exclude the 

4 abnormal production years (2 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.4 percent. 

This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final 

estimates by more than 3.5 percent, or 3.4 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent 

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.0 percent, or 5.9 percent excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 

313,000 tons (314,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 5,000 tons to 638,000 tons (5,000 tons to 

638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times 

and above 14 times (below 6 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that 

the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
16 Crop Production (January 2011)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact 

for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch .......................................................................................................(202) 720-2127

Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section ...................................................................................... (202) 720-2127

 Suzanne Avilla – Peanuts, Rice........................................................................................................ (202) 720-7688

 Bryan Durham – Hay, Oats.............................................................................................................. (202) 690-3234

 Steve Maliszewski – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................................................ (202) 720-5944

 Anthony Prillaman – Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed ......................................................................... (202) 720-9526

 Nick Schauer – Wheat, Rye ............................................................................................................. (202) 720-8068

 Julie Schmidt – Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops....................................................................... (202) 720-7621

 Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..................................................................(202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............................................(202) 720-2127

 Debbie Flippin – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries......................................(202) 720-2157

 Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ...............................................(202) 720-4288

 Dawn Keen – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ........................................................(202) 720-4215

 Jorge Garcia-Pratts – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits .........................................................(202) 720-5412

 Tierra Mobley – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ....................................................(202) 720-4285

 Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mints,

 Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ..................................................(202) 720-3250

 Kim Ritchie – Hops..........................................................................................................................(360) 709-2400
Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:

 All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

 Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free 

subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the “Receive NASS Updates” box under “Receive reports by 

Email,” click on “National” or “State” to select the reports you would like to receive. 

 Printed reports may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) by calling toll-free 

(800) 999-6779, or (703) 605-6220 if calling from outside the United States or Canada. Accepted methods of 

payment are Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 

7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 

 

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Today’s Strategies & Tomorrow’s Opportunities

February 24-25, 2011

Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel

Arlington, Virginia

www.usda.gov/oce/forum

Early Bird Registration $350 until January 21, 2011 

* $375 after January 21

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