Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released January 11, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department 

of Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down 2 Percent from December Forecast

The United States all orange forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 8.83 million tons, down 2 percent from both the 

previous forecast and the 2011-2012 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 142 million boxes (6.39 million 

tons), is down 3 percent from both the December forecast and last season’s final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel 

varieties in Florida are forecast at 66.0 million boxes (2.97 million tons), down 1 percent from the December forecast and 

down 11 percent from last season. Projected droppage is the highest since the 1969-1970 season while size is projected to 

be below average. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 76.0 million boxes (3.42 million tons), is down 4 percent from 

the December forecast but up 5 percent from the 2011-2012 crop.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 1.61 gallons per box at 

42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the December forecast but down 1 percent from last season’s final yield of 

1.63 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.50 gallons per box, down 2 percent from last season’s 

yield of 1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.71 gallons per box, 2 percent lower than last year’s 

final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar 

to those of the past several seasons.
2 Crop Production (January 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

This report was approved on January 11, 2013.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Michael T. Scuse

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Hubert Hamer
Crop Production (January 2013) 3

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2011-2012 and Forecasted 

January 1, 2013 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2011 and 2012 .................................................. 5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2012 and 2013..................... 6

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 2012 and 2013 ......................... 8

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2012 and 2013 (Domestic Units).................................................................... 10

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2012 and 2013 (Metric Units) ........................................................................ 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation Map ................................................................................................................................... 12

Departure from Normal Temperature Map........................................................................................................................... 12

December Weather Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 13

December Agricultural Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 13

Crop Comments.................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15

Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16
4 Crop Production (January 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2011-2012 and

Forecasted January 1, 2013

[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]

Crop and State

Utilized production boxes 1 Utilized production ton equivalent

2011-2012 2012-2013 2011-2012 2012-2013

(1,000 boxes) (1,000 boxes) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Oranges

Early, mid, and Navel 2

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Valencia

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

All

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Grapefruit

White

 Florida ...............................................

Colored

 Florida ...............................................

All

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Tangerines and mandarins

Arizona 3...............................................

California 3............................................

Florida ...................................................

United States ........................................

Lemons 

Arizona .................................................

California ..............................................

United States ........................................

Tangelos

Florida ...................................................

45,500

74,200

1,108

120,808

13,500

72,400

311

86,211

59,000

146,600

1,419

207,019

5,350

13,500

4,400

18,850

4,800

28,050

200

10,900

4,290

15,390

750

20,500

21,250

1,150

46,500

66,000

1,220

113,720

13,000

76,000

286

89,286

59,500

142,000

1,506

203,006

5,000

13,000

4,000

18,000

5,280

27,280

200

11,800

3,800

15,800

1,800

20,500

22,300

1,100

1,820

3,339

47

5,206

540

3,258

13

3,811

2,360

6,597

60

9,017

228

574

176

802

192

1,170

8

436

204

648

30

820

850

52

1,860

2,970

52

4,882

520

3,420

12

3,952

2,380

6,390

64

8,834

213

553

160

766

211

1,137

8

472

181

661

72

820

892

50

1 Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in 

Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90.

2 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines 

in Texas and Temples in Florida.

3

Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production (January 2013) 5

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2011 and 2012

State

May 1 December 1

2011 2012 2011 2012

(1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Alabama ....................

Arizona ......................

Arkansas ...................

California ...................

Colorado ....................

Connecticut ...............

Delaware ...................

Florida .......................

Georgia .....................

Idaho .........................

Illinois ........................

Indiana ......................

Iowa ...........................

Kansas ......................

Kentucky ....................

Louisiana ...................

Maine ........................

Maryland ....................

Massachusetts ...........

Michigan ....................

Minnesota ..................

Mississippi .................

Missouri .....................

Montana ....................

Nebraska ...................

Nevada ......................

New Hampshire .........

New Jersey ................

New Mexico ...............

New York ...................

North Carolina ...........

North Dakota .............

Ohio ...........................

Oklahoma ..................

Oregon ......................

Pennsylvania .............

Rhode Island .............

South Carolina ...........

South Dakota .............

Tennessee .................

Texas ........................

Utah ...........................

Vermont .....................

Virginia ......................

Washington ...............

West Virginia .............

Wisconsin ..................

Wyoming ...................

United States .............

187

40

380

160

450

12

3

45

188

280

320

225

610

1,000

799

110

23

65

10

420

810

137

1,325

1,300

1,335

46

6

17

100

273

253

1,250

390

1,200

280

340

1

110

1,850

746

2,500

144

48

402

350

190

1,122

365

22,217

269

35

340

240

230

12

4

42

169

700

300

165

500

650

775

70

35

80

15

360

900

251

1,025

1,550

1,070

238

13

12

120

327

369

1,700

308

500

275

450

1

80

2,400

716

950

350

45

900

230

285

925

400

21,381

1,385

250

1,550

1,640

1,800

55

13

400

800

2,000

980

1,300

2,750

3,900

3,840

540

133

360

71

1,500

3,800

1,486

5,450

4,900

4,275

830

49

81

575

1,800

1,175

6,100

1,778

2,800

2,200

1,950

8

400

8,400

3,101

3,800

1,420

215

2,500

1,460

953

2,653

1,300

90,726

1,620

240

1,150

1,900

1,600

52

17

470

1,200

2,100

1,050

900

1,840

3,000

3,400

905

127

310

81

850

2,800

1,365

4,600

3,800

3,050

650

49

119

600

1,800

1,200

4,500

1,200

2,900

1,700

1,700

7

440

4,300

2,700

6,100

900

200

2,300

1,200

795

1,810

950

76,547
6 Crop Production (January 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2012 2013 2012 2013

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all ................................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all ............................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all ...........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all ........................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 2....................................................................

3,637

97,155

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

2,760

335

2,699

1,300

6,244

(NA)

55,736

41,324

2,123

12,289

1,765.0

(X)

344

51.1

1,638.0

2.2

169.8

77,198

1,919.0

12,315.4

12,077.0

238.4

1,230.1

(NA)

(NA)

19.0

1,742.5

649.0

463.0

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,148.3

96.8

49.8

1,001.7

(NA)

130.5

(NA)

41,820

3,244

87,375

7,379

56,260

17,292

38,968

1,045

205

2,678

248

4,955

363

48,991

34,834

2,102

12,055

1,729.0

(X)

336

49.7

1,608.0

2.1

160.1

76,104

1,841.0

9,426.8

9,190.0

236.8

1,204.2

899.0

336.2

13.7

1,690.4

621.0

450.0

(NA)

6.1

31.9

76.0

1,132.7

94.6

48.5

989.6

20.0

126.6

0.4

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (January 2013) 7

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013 (continued)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per acre Production

2012 2013 2012 2013

(1,000) (1,000)

Grains and hay

Barley ................................................................................... bushels

Corn for grain ........................................................................ bushels

Corn for silage ............................................................................tons

Hay, all .......................................................................................tons

 Alfalfa .....................................................................................tons

 All other ..................................................................................tons

Oats ...................................................................................... bushels

Proso millet ........................................................................... bushels

Rice 3........................................................................................... cwt

Rye ....................................................................................... bushels

Sorghum for grain ................................................................. bushels

Sorghum for silage ......................................................................tons

Wheat, all ............................................................................. bushels

 Winter ............................................................................... bushels

 Durum ............................................................................... bushels

 Other spring ...................................................................... bushels

Oilseeds

Canola ...................................................................................pounds

Cottonseed .................................................................................tons

Flaxseed ............................................................................... bushels

Mustard seed .........................................................................pounds

Peanuts .................................................................................pounds

Rapeseed ..............................................................................pounds

Safflower ...............................................................................pounds

Soybeans for beans .............................................................. bushels

Sunflower ..............................................................................pounds

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 3............................................................................... bales

 Upland 3................................................................................ bales

 American Pima 3................................................................... bales

Sugarbeets .................................................................................tons

Sugarcane ..................................................................................tons

Tobacco .................................................................................pounds

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas 3.................................................................. cwt

Dry edible beans 3....................................................................... cwt

Dry edible peas 3......................................................................... cwt

Lentils 3........................................................................................ cwt

Wrinkled seed peas ..................................................................... cwt

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ......................................................................pounds

Hops ......................................................................................pounds

Peppermint oil ........................................................................pounds

Potatoes, all ................................................................................. cwt

 Spring ...................................................................................... cwt

 Summer ................................................................................... cwt

 Fall .......................................................................................... cwt

Spearmint oil .........................................................................pounds

Sweet potatoes ............................................................................ cwt

Taro (Hawaii) .........................................................................pounds

67.9

123.4

15.4

2.13

3.01

1.74

61.3

15.1

7,449

28.0

49.8

11.4

46.3

47.2

39.0

45.0

1,416

(X)

17.1

602

4,192

2,205

1,121

39.6

1,513

866

849

1,540

29.3

36.3

2,268

1,219

1,889

1,751

1,178

(NA)

1,180

1,918

87

412

283

368

427

120

209

(NA)

220,284

10,780,296

113,450

119,878

52,049

67,829

64,024

3,090

199,479

6,944

246,932

4,135

2,269,117

1,645,202

81,956

541,959

2,447,410

5,759.0

5,762

29,930

6,741,400

4,630

179,424

3,014,998

2,785,695

17,009.9

16,250.0

759.9

35,236

32,637

762,441

167

31,925

10,872

5,302

406

7,200

61,249.2

6,605

467,126

26,736

17,855

422,535

2,390

26,482

3,400

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.

3 Yield in pounds.
8 Crop Production (January 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2012 2013 2012 2013

(hectares) (hectares) (hectares) (hectares)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2......................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 3....................................................................

1,471,860

39,317,660

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,116,940

135,570

1,092,260

526,100

2,526,880

(NA)

22,555,800

16,723,410

859,160

4,973,240

714,280

(X)

139,210

20,680

662,880

890

68,720

31,241,260

776,600

4,983,920

4,887,440

96,480

497,810

(NA)

(NA)

7,690

705,170

262,640

187,370

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

464,710

39,170

20,150

405,380

(NA)

52,810

(NA)

16,924,140

1,312,810

35,359,790

2,986,210

22,767,860

6,997,900

15,769,960

422,900

82,960

1,083,760

100,360

2,005,240

146,900

19,826,170

14,096,970

850,660

4,878,540

699,710

(X)

135,980

20,110

650,740

850

64,790

30,798,530

745,030

3,814,930

3,719,100

95,830

487,330

363,820

136,070

5,540

684,090

251,310

182,110

(NA)

2,470

12,920

30,760

458,390

38,280

19,630

400,480

8,090

51,230

160

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (January 2013) 9

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013 (continued)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per hectare Production

2012 2013 2012 2013

(metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain ......................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa .............................................................................

 All other ..........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain ...............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower ............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ...........................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ...............................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2.....................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall .................................................................................

Spearmint oil ......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................

3.65

7.74

34.47

4.78

6.75

3.90

2.20

0.84

8.35

1.76

3.13

25.54

3.11

3.18

2.62

3.02

1.59

(X)

1.08

0.67

4.70

2.47

1.26

2.66

1.70

0.97

0.95

1.73

65.59

81.38

2.54

1.37

2.12

1.96

1.32

(NA)

1.32

2.15

0.10

46.22

31.68

41.26

47.86

0.13

23.45

(NA)

4,796,120

273,832,130

102,920,110

108,751,490

47,218,060

61,533,430

929,310

70,080

9,048,220

176,390

6,272,360

3,751,210

61,755,240

44,775,060

2,230,480

14,749,710

1,110,130

5,224,480

146,360

13,580

3,057,850

2,100

81,390

82,054,800

1,263,570

3,703,470

3,538,020

165,450

31,965,560

29,607,790

345,840

7,570

1,448,090

493,150

240,490

18,420

3,270

27,780

3,000

21,188,480

1,212,720

809,890

19,165,870

1,080

1,201,200

1,540

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2

Total may not add due to rounding.

3 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
10 Crop Production (January 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2012 and 2013 (Domestic Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2012 2013

(1,000) (1,000)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit .....................................................................................................................tons

Lemons ........................................................................................................................tons

Oranges .......................................................................................................................tons

Tangelos (Florida) ........................................................................................................tons

Tangerines and mandarins ...........................................................................................tons

Noncitrus

Apples ........................................................................................................... 1,000 pounds

Apricots ........................................................................................................................tons

Bananas (Hawaii) ....................................................................................................pounds

Grapes .........................................................................................................................tons

Olives (California) ........................................................................................................tons

Papayas (Hawaii) ....................................................................................................pounds

Peaches .......................................................................................................................tons

Pears ...........................................................................................................................tons

Prunes, dried (California) .............................................................................................tons

Prunes and plums (excludes California) .......................................................................tons

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ..................................................................................pounds

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .........................................................................................tons

Pecans, in-shell .......................................................................................................pounds

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........................................................................................tons

Maple syrup ............................................................................................................ gallons

1,170

850

9,017

52

648

8,065.7

67.8

7,296.8

1,023.3

878.5

2,100,000

40.0

308,600

470

1,908

1,137

892

8,834

50

661

1 Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.
Crop Production (January 2013) 11

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2012 and 2013 (Metric Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2012 2013

(metric tons) (metric tons)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit ...........................................................................................................................

Lemons ..............................................................................................................................

Oranges ..............................................................................................................................

Tangelos (Florida) ..............................................................................................................

Tangerines and mandarins .................................................................................................

Noncitrus

Apples ................................................................................................................................

Apricots ..............................................................................................................................

Bananas (Hawaii) ...............................................................................................................

Grapes ...............................................................................................................................

Olives (California) ...............................................................................................................

Papayas (Hawaii) ...............................................................................................................

Peaches .............................................................................................................................

Pears ..................................................................................................................................

Prunes, dried (California) ....................................................................................................

Prunes and plums (excludes California) ..............................................................................

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ..............................................................................................

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...............................................................................................

Pecans, in-shell ..................................................................................................................

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ...............................................................................................

Maple syrup ........................................................................................................................

1,061,410

771,110

8,180,080

47,170

587,860

3,658,540

61,490

6,619,550

928,320

796,960

952,540

36,290

139,980

426,380

9,540

1,031,470

809,210

8,014,070

45,360

599,650

1 Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.
12 Crop Production (January 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production (January 2013) 13

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

December Weather Summary

Despite occasional December precipitation across the Nation’s mid-section, hard red winter wheat conditions remained 

mostly steady or declined due to poor crop establishment and acute soil moisture shortages. In addition, drought 

intensified across southern portions of the Plains, especially from southern Texas into eastern Kansas. By December 30, 

the portion of the Plains’ wheat rated in very poor to poor condition included 61 percent in Oklahoma, 49 percent in 

Nebraska, and 31 percent in Kansas. However, enough snow fell across the northern and central Plains to provide some 

degree of insulation from temperatures that locally and periodically fell to -10 degrees Fahrenheit or lower.

In contrast, significant precipitation fell in much of the soft red winter wheat belt, particularly across the Ohio Valley. As 

a result, most of the wheat continued to thrive across the Mid-South and lower Midwest. By month’s end, 70 percent of 

the Illinois wheat crop was rated good to excellent. In both the Ohio Valley and the upper Midwest, enough of 

December’s precipitation fell in the frozen form to establish a substantial snow cover.

Meanwhile, widespread precipitation also fell in much of the East, although rain was spotty across Florida. Some of the 

heaviest precipitation, relative to normal, fell across the Northeast and from the central Gulf Coast into the southern 

Appalachians.

Elsewhere, much of the West experienced unsettled weather during December. Precipitation was especially heavy from 

northern California into the Intermountain West. For example, the average water content of the high-elevation Sierra 

Nevada snow pack increased by 10 inches during the month, reaching 14 inches (137 percent of normal) by the end of 

December.

The Nation’s winter agricultural regions escaped significant freezes during December, although there were several chilly 

mornings - particularly from December 19-21 - in California and the Desert Southwest. Florida’s coldest morning, for the 

most part, occurred on December 23. Overall, December temperatures were highly variable in the West but mostly above 

normal across the eastern half of the Nation. Western temperatures were influenced by snow cover, mainly in parts of the 

Intermountain region.

December Agricultural Summary

Temperatures from the Great Plains eastward were well above normal during December, allowing producers with 

unharvested crops additional time to complete fieldwork while aiding the establishment of winter wheat. Most notably, 

temperatures for an area centered over the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley averaged more than 6 degrees above normal. 

In the West, monthly temperatures were near-normal. Precipitation totals for the Nation varied drastically during the 

December. Much of the southern Great Plains accumulated rain and snow totaling less than 25 percent of normal, while 

portions of Great Basin and Northeast received more than 200 percent of their normal precipitation.

In the South, a variety of producer activities were ongoing throughout the month. Barley and Durum wheat were sown in 

Arizona, as cotton producers finished harvesting their crop. Growers in Texas readied fields for spring planting following 

the completion of cotton harvesting and small grain seeding. Elsewhere, general equipment and field maintenance was 

completed as conditions allowed. Fruit and vegetable producers in the major producing States harvested and shipped a 

variety of crops throughout the month, with replanting ongoing as conditions allowed.

Unfavorably dry conditions led to further deterioration of winter wheat in some areas. By December 30, the portion of the 

Plains’ wheat rated in very poor to poor condition included 61 percent in Oklahoma, 49 percent in Nebraska, and 

31 percent in Kansas. Conversely, increased moisture in areas of the Corn Belt benefitted not only winter wheat, but 

helped to somewhat replenish soil moisture levels as producers begin to plan for the 2013 crop season.

Crop Comments

Grapefruit: The 2012-2013 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.14 million tons, unchanged from the December 

forecast but down 3 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, droppage is expected to be above average for 

both white and colored grapefruit, while the average size is projected to be smaller than normal for both types.
14 Crop Production (January 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Lemons: The forecast for the 2012-2013 United States lemon crop is 892,000 tons, up slightly from the October forecast 

and up 5 percent from last season’s final utilization. Arizona’s lemon crop is forecast to be up 140 percent from last 

season’s freeze reduced crop. Lemon harvest continued in both Arizona and California.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), unchanged from the December forecast but 

down 4 percent from last season’s final utilization. Fruit size is projected to be below average with above average 

droppage.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 661,000 tons, unchanged from 

the December forecast but up 2 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, sizes for all varieties of tangerines 

are expected to be below average with above average droppage.

Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, weather stations reported high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to low 

80s. Lows reached the low 30’s in places, but avoided fruit damaging levels. Rainfall was moderate, but widespread 

across the citrus producing region for most of the month. Harvesting of early and mid oranges and grapefruit was well 

underway. Harvesting, mowing, and general grove maintenance were the primary grove activities.

California citrus: The citrus crop was not affected by the late December cold snap. Satsuma mandarin, Owari, and 

Clementine tangerine harvests continued. Navel orange harvest also continued as the cooler weather improved external 

maturity. Cara Cara orange, hybrid grapefruit, lime, and lemon harvests were ongoing.

California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Asian pear and Fuyu and Hachiya persimmon harvests were completed in 

December. Pineapple quinces, figs, and apples continued to be harvested. Early Wonderful and Wonderful pomegranate 

varieties as well as kiwi harvest were finished. Table and wine grape harvests were complete. Grapevines were dormant 

and pruning was ongoing. The olive harvest was complete in the Southern San Joaquin Valley.

The harvest of walnuts was complete and groves were being irrigated, pruned and sprayed. Nut crops were being sprayed 

with dormant sprays. Bees were being brought in from out of state in preparation for almond bloom.

Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on farms December 1, 2012 totaled 76.5 million tons, down 16 percent from a year 

ago. This is the lowest December 1 stocks level since 1957. Disappearance from May 1, 2012 - December 1, 2012 totaled 

64.7 million tons, compared with 62.7 million tons for the same period a year ago.

Compared with last year, hay stocks as a percent of production decreased throughout much of the western United States. 

Prolonged dryness coupled with hot temperatures stifled not only pasture and range growth, but growth of alfalfa fields as 

well. As a result, overall hay production was negatively impacted in many States. In addition, livestock producers were 

forced to feed their herds earlier than normal due to the diminished availability of native feedstuffs.

Elsewhere, the increase in on-farm stocks as a percent of production across much of the Northern Tier resulted mostly 

from producers holding a larger portion of their 2011 hay crop in storage due to an unusually mild winter and earlier 

availability of spring pastures. Similarly, hay stock levels were higher than last year in many Atlantic Coast States.
Crop Production (January 2013) 15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which 

produces about 72 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season 

based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or 

special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and 

subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous 

components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer 

surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in 

September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were 

also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural 

Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month 

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in 

September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including 

information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization 

and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square 

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production 

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage 

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean 

Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 

final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing 

recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 3.1 percent regardless if you exclude the 

three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 

that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.1 percent. 

Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.3 percent regardless of whether 

abnormal seasons are excluded.

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 

279,000 tons regardless of whether abnormal seasons are excluded, ranging from 13,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless 

of exclusions. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 

8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this 

year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
16 Crop Production (January 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact 

for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch .......................................................................................................(202) 720-2127

Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section ...................................................................................... (202) 720-2127

 Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye, Wheat .............................................................................................. (202) 720-8068

 Angie Considine – Peanuts, Rice ..................................................................................................... (202) 720-7688

 Steve Maliszewski – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................................................ (202) 720-5944

 Anthony Prillaman – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet ......................................................................... (202) 720-9526

 Julie Schmidt – Crop Weather, Barley, Hay .................................................................................... (202) 720-7621

 Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..................................................................(202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............................................(202) 720-2127

 Debbie Flippin – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries......................................(202) 720-2157

 Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ...............................................(202) 720-4288

 Chris Hawthorn – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits.........................................(202) 720-5412

 Dave Losh – Hops............................................................................................................................(360) 709-2400 

 Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,

 Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ..................................................(202) 720-3250

 Daphne Schauber – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ...............................................(202) 720-4285

 Erika White – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts .......................................................(202) 720-4215
Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:

 All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

 Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free 

subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the “Follow NASS” box under “Receive reports by Email,” 

click on “National” or “State” to select the reports you would like to receive. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 

7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 

 

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