ALL HAY

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE : > INDY: : IND: : : IND 1/
: 1987 : 1988 : 1987: 1988: 1986 =: 1987 : 1988
1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS

ALA : 700 750 2,10 1.90 1,120 1,470 1,425
ARIZ 3 190 180 7.28 7.36 1,262 1,383 1,324
ARK : 985 950 1.75 1.42 1,945 1,720 1,345
CALIF : 1,670 1,680 5.39 5.25 8,628 9,005 8,820
COLO : 1,500 1,650 2.70 2.48 3,642 4,044 4,087
CONN 3 88 83 2.26 2.12 209 199 176
DEL : 23 25 2,26 2.40 50 52 60
FLA : 275 270 2.90 2.90 676 798 783
GA : 600 600 2.20 1.90 901 1,320 1,140
IDAHO : 1,270 1,180 3.55 3.29 4,720 4,503 3,882
TLL : 1,000 1,500 3.17 1.94 3,664 3,169 2,913
IND : 730 1,130 3.08 1.69 2,236 2,249 1,915
TOWA : 2,100 3,400 3.30 2.14 8,000 6,933 7,260
KANS > 2,400 2,500 2.51 2.08 6,390 6,020 5,195
KY : 2,160 2,370 1.98 1.73 3,588 4,278 4,089
LA 3 360 365 2.71 2.4) 781 974 880
MAINE 3 216 207 1.98 1.88 448 428 390
MD 3 235 225 2.73 2.11 509 642 475
MASS : 127 128 2.29 2.20 325 291 281
MICH : 1,500 1,950 2.92 2.00 5,743 4,384 3,900
MINN s 2,625 3,520 2.97 1.96 9,675 7,800 6,892
MISS 3 570 650 2.50 1.80 1,160 1,425 1,170
MO 2: 3,520 3,900 1.76 1.21 6,028 6,178 4,730
MONT : 2,200 1,900 1,91 1.45 4,320 4,210 2,755
NEBR : 3,000 3,700 2.16 1.74 7,388 6,475 6,445
NEV H 515 510 2.68 2.62 1,376 1,380 1,337
NH : 85 87 2.13 2.01 198 181 175
NJ : W2 110 2.56 2.43 297 287 267
N MEX : 305 275 4.40 4.44 1,319 1,341 1,221
NY : 2,230 2,230 2.36 2.17 5,408 5,269 4,845
NC 3 435 450 1.67 1.63 573 726 734
N DAK : 2,950 2,300 1.63 0.80 5,425 4,795 1,840
OHIO : 1,450 1,675 3.05 1.93 4,307 4,423 3,237
OKLA 2: 2,210 2,260 2.00 1.67 4,295 4,413 3,779
OREG : 1,120 1,065 2.69 2.74 3,134 3,014 2,922
PA : 2,030 2,080 2.56 2.36 5,124 5,198 4,916
RI H 8 8 2.38 2.25 23 19 18
SC : 225 240 2.00 1.80 328 450 432
S DAK : 3,950 4,600 1.79 1.25 9,330 7,090 5,750
TENN > 1,570 1,600 1.68 1.46 2,092 2,644 2,340
TEX > 3,240 3,250 2.45 1.97 7,460 7,930 6,415
UTAH : 625 625 3.59 3.59 2,135 2,243 2,243
VT H 410 395 2.08 1.97 938 851 780
VA : 1,324 1,300 1.62 1.61 1,464 2,147 2,094
WASH : 760 800 3.55 3.74 2,874 2,698 2,993
WVA : 630 620 1.58 1.24 801 994 766
WIS : 3,320 3,650 2.67 1.90 10,775 8,880 6,940
wo H 1,200 1,210 1.85 1.76 2,445 2,219 2,133
US : 60,748 66,153 2.46° 1.97 155,529 149,142 130,509

1/ INCLUDES SET ASIDE AND CONSERVATION RESERVE ACRES THAT WERE RELEASED FOR
HAYING AND EXPECTED TO BE HARVESTED FOR HAY.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-20 NASS, USDA


Southern Maryland type 32 production, at 19.3 million pounds is down 7
percent from 1987. Acreage for harvest declined 14 percent from a year ago.
Yield per acre of 1,428 pounds compares with 1,321 pounds last year.

Growers of dark air-cured tobacco expect to harvest 3,810 acres with a
production of 7.14 million pounds. Acreage is up 6 percent and production
increased by 2 percent.

All cigar-type production is expected to total 21.8 million pounds, 13
percent less than in 1987. Cigar filler production declined 7 percent and
binder production is 25 percent lower but cigar wrapper production is up 19
percent from a year ago.

SUGARBEETS: The sugarbeet production forecast, at 25.7 million tons, is 8 per-
cent lower than the 1987 output. The smaller production is the

result of reduced yields which are only partially offset by an increase in
acreage from a year ago.

Expected area for harvest, at 1.30 million acres, is up 4 percent from
Jast year. Average yield is forecast at 19.9 tons per acre, 2.4 tons below
that harvested a year earlier. The reduction in yield is especially evident
in the Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota.

The 1988 Minnesota crop jis expected to be down 20 percent from 1987 and
North Dakota growers are looking for an 18 percent decline from last year.
Dry, windy weather in May caused soil erosion and forced many growers to
replant. Growing conditions with record high temperatures and unseasonably
short soil moisture stressed the crop throughout the growing season.

In California, the crop is infected with yellow virus. However, growers
expect to harvest an average crop.

The Idaho crop is forecast to be 5 percent below last year's output. A 2

percent increase in acreage for harvest is more than offset by a 1.9 ton per
acre decline in yield.

Michigan sugarbeets have survived fairly well this season and responded
favorably to rain received after mid-July. Average yield is expected to be
1.5 tons below last year.

SUGARCANE: Sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1988 is forecast at 31.1

million tons, an increase of 6 percent from last year. Both acre-
age and yield are higher than in 1987. The harvested area is expected to
total 841 thousand acres, which represents an increase of 2 percent from
1987. The forecasted yield of 37.0 tons per acre is 1.5 tons above a year
earlier.

Florida's sugarcane is in good condition. Weather has been favorable for
good growth.

Hawaii growers have expanded the use of irrigation, and are using higher
yielding varieties. Frequent rain has reduced the effectiveness of cane
burning, which has increased trash and loss of sugar.

The Louisiana sugarcane crop was in good condition on August 1. Plants are
8-12 inches shorter than usual, but rain the last 3 weeks has allowed rapid
growth.

In Texas, the crop progress has been good only because of steady watering.
The Rio Grande Valley was hot and dry in July.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-9 NASS, USDA



Arizona's durum harvest wrapped up in July; yields were very good.
California's durum harvest finished early July. Ideal weather at bloom and
fil? resulted in heavy test weights and good yields. Minnesota yields are
just half of 1987's. Extreme heat and drouth hastened maturity of Montana's
durum wheat; test weights and yield's are greatly reduced. Harvest is the
earliest on record, with nearly a third of the crop out by August 1. Farmers
are harvesting all salvageable acreage. Record high temperatures in June-July
pushed North Dakota durum development ahead of normal. Dry soils stressed
plants, prevented normal growth and produced short stalks. By August 1, about
25 percent of the crop was combined. The crop has been called poor to very
poor throughout the season. Drought has hit South Dakota's durum area very
hard, reducing both area for grain and average yields.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production for 1988 is forecast at 212 million bushels,

down 53 percent from 1987 to the lowest level since
1970. Area for grain totals 10.3 million acres, 23 percent less than last
year. Yields are forecast at 20.6 bushels per acre, 13.1 bushels per acre
less than in 1987. If realized, this would be the lowest average yield since
1961.

Growers in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington are expecting higher yields
than in 1987. All remaining estimating States’ yields are down.

The four major producing States (Minnesota, Montana, North and South
Dakota), have been hammered by the drought of '88. Based on conditions around
August 1, these States expect to average 16.9 bushels per acre this year. The
range is from 12.0 bushels in Montana up to 22.0 bushels in Minnesota.

Harvest is significantly ahead of average progress in the four States. As
of July 31, about 53 percent of the acreage had been harvested. This compares
to the 5-year average of 8 percent. The remaining acreage is rated in poor
condition.

RICE: The 1988 rice production is forecast at 153 million hundredweight, 19

percent above 1987 and 14 percent above 1986. This would be the largest
production since 1982. The larger production resulted from more acres for
harvest.

Area for harvest is expected to total 2.86 million acres, 23 percent more
than the 2.33 million acres harvested in 1987. This would be the largest area
harvested since 1982, Acres for harvest is up in all States ranging from 14
percent in California to 48 percent in Texas. Arkansas producers plan to
harvest 16 percent more acreage than in 1987.

Yield is expected to average 5,342 pounds per acre, 140 pounds below the
5,482 pounds in 1987. This would be the lowest yield since 1984. Yield is
down in all States except California which is unchanged at 7,100 pounds. In
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, yield is expected to decline 100 pounds in
each State, Arkansas is expecting a 250 pound decline in yield.

Rice harvest was underway in Louisiana and Texas at the end of July.

Harvest trailed behind normal in both States. Crop development lagged behind
normal in most States.

SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at 1.47 billion bushels, 23 percent below

last year. If realized this will be the lowest production since
1976. Yield is forecast at 26.0 bushels per acre, 7.7 bushels lower than last
year. The last time yield fell below 26.0 bushels per acre was in 1974.
Based on an August 1 acreage update survey, planted area was revised to 58.8
million acres, an increase of 1 percent from July. Acres expected for harvest
fell 1 percent from a month ago, reflecting losses from drought stricken
areas.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 BeS NASS, USDA


The acreage of corn for grain trended upward for several decades, reaching
a peak of nearly 111 million acres in 1932. From 1866 to 1932, corn acreage
increased tremendously in the area just west of the Mississippi River now
called the Western Corn Belt (flowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, and
South Dakota). Other States in the Corn Belt are Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
North Dakota, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

The estimates from 1866 through 1925 consisted of acreage harvested for
all purposes, yield, and production. In 1919 the first estimates of corn
silage acreage harvested, yield, and production were made. Beginning in 1926
estimates of al) corn planted were added.

U.S. corn for grain yields were generally in the 20-30 bushels per acre
from 1866 to 1940. During the early forties the trend toward greater use of
double cross hybrids increased yields. National estimates of corn acreage
planted with hybrid seed were made from 1933 through 1960. In 1935 slightly
over 1 percent of the total acreage was planted with hybrid seed. This
increased to nearly 31 percent by 1940 and 78 percent by 1950. In 1960, 96
percent of the acreage was planted with hybrid seed.

The greater use of chemical fertilizers, especially nitrogen fertilizers,
spread across the Corn Belt during the fifties and sixties resulting in
dramatic increases in yields. Variability in yields during the seventies and
eighties has been caused mostly by weather conditions. Drought conditions in
1974, 1980, and 1983 reduced yields significantly. Extremely favorable weather
conditions in 1985, 1986, and 1987 produced record yields. By 1987, the
National average yield per acre of corn for grain was up to 119.4 bushels,
nearly five times the 1866 yield.

The production of corn since the early thirties has been greatly affected
by government farm programs. Most government programs have involved acreage
controls, guaranteed prices, and government purchases of surplus production.
While acreage has varied significantly from year to year, total corn production
has trended upward. A record 8.9 billion bushels were produced in 1985. The
1987 crop of 7.1 billion bushels was the eighth largest on record. Five major
producing States (Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Indiana) account
for 65 percent of the total U.S. production.

U S CORN

1866-1987
+ HARVESTED ACRES —~ PRODUCTION
20 MILLION ACRES: BILLION BUSHELS: 12
100 pele 10
80 — .— 8
60 oo —_—, 6
40 4
20 2
Ce a

1866 1886 1906 1926 1946 1966 1986
YEAR

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 8-14 NASS, USDA


ALL WHEAT

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

STATE IND IND

1,000 BUSHELS

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS
ALA : 170 220 31.0 38.0 5,720 5,270 8,360
ARIZ : 89 85 89.9 96.5 8,688 8,005 8,200
ARK : 840 1,050 41.0 51.0 33,415 34,440 53,550
CALIF: 537 499 77.5 84.4 51,525 41,610 42,125
coLo > 2,555 2,401 38.1 34.8 96,430 97,380 83,470
DEL 1/: 48 60 42.0 45.0 1,530 2,016 2,700
FLA V/ : 60 55 30.0 33.0 3,100 1,800 1,815
GA : 460 475 31.0 43.0 15,400 14,260 20,425
IDAHO =: ~=1,140 1,170 75.0 66.1 81,750 85, 500 77,280
ILL : 950 1,220 59.0 55.0 36,080 56,050 67,100
IND : 600 700 58.0 49.0 30, 100 34,800 34,300
IOWA 1/ : 30 35 38.0 30.0 1,680 1,140 1,050
KANS : 9,900 9,400 37.0 34.0 336,600 366,300 319,600
KY : 330 380 49.0 51.0 8,910 16,170 19,380
1A If 170 270 31.0 41.0 7,350 5,270 11,070
MD 1/: 165 170 49.0 51.0 6,815 8,085 8,670
MICH : 400 610 48.0 40.0 30,600 19,200 24,400
MINN : 2,519 2,085 40.7 22.0 103,666 102,588 45,785
MISS : 350 480 36.0 45.0 6,200 12,600 21,600
MO : 770 1,550 46.0 50.0 18,810 35,420 77,500
MONT : 4,690 3,830 32.2 15.8 138,520 151,220 60,430
NEBR : 1,950 2,000 44.0 39.0 76,000 85,800 78,000
NEV : 2 19 80.0 77.4 1,720 1,680 1,470
Nd Wo: 27 26 «45.0 45.0 1,290 1,215 1,170
N MEX 1/: 340 320 32.0 25.0 10,120 10,880 8,000
NY W/: 80 90 47.0 47.0 7,595 3,760 4,230
NC : 440 480 41.0 47.0 15,180 18,040 22,560
NDAK =: 9,135 7,240 29.5 16.7 292,320 269,120 120,580
OHIO : 800 920 58.0 50.0 48,300 46,400 46 ,000
OKLA : 4,800 4,800 27.0 36.0 150,800 129,600 172,800
OREG : 810 755 65.3 68.7 58,405 52,920 51,900
PA W/ : 185 170 43.0 44.0 9,680 7,955 7,480
sc Vi: 275 300 38.0 45.0 7,500 10,450 13,500
S DAK =: 3,528 2,718 30.2 15.0 108,660 106,704 40,684
TENN : 350 430 41.0 49.0 10,725 14,350 21,070
TEX : 3,600 3,100 28.0 28.0 120,000 100,800 86,800
UTAH : 199 175 45.0 39.5 93750 8,963 6,912
VA : 215 210 45.0 54.0 6,970 9,675 11,340
WASH : 2,015 2,060 56.7 61.2 116,850 114,285 126,170
WVA V/s: 1 9 45.0 46.0 396 495 414
WIS : 88 130 47.3. 37.8 8,040 4,164 4,920
iz) : 288 244 30.6 25.7 8,445 8,820 6,268
US : 55,930 52,941 37.6 34.4 2,091,635 2,105,200 1,821,078

lf ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORCAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-14 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE

AREA HARVESTED

YIELD

: IND :
1987 : 1988

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

CLASS 1, FLUE-CURED
TYPE 11, OLD AND
MIDDLE BELTS

NC
vA

80,000 90,000 1,970 2,050 157,600 184,500
28,000 32,000 2,085 2,300 58,380 73,600
us 108,000 122,000 2,000 2,116 215,980 258,100
TYPE 12, EASTERN NC

BELT

NC
TYPE 13, NC BORDER &
SC BELT

107,000 116,000 2,170 2,300 232,190 266,800

NC 30,000 31,000 2,090 2,125 62,700 65,875

sc 42,000 44,000 2,240 2,100 94,080 92,400

US 72,000 75,000 2,178 2,110 156,780 158,275
TYPE 14, GA-FLA BELT

FLA 5,600 6,200 2,465 2,450 13,804 15,190

GA 32,000 35,000 2,255 2,200 72,160 77,000

US 37,600 41,200 2,286 2,238 85,964 92,190
TOTAL 11-14 > 324,600 354,200 2,129 2,189 690,914 775,365

CLASS 2, FIRE-CURED :
TYPE 21, VA BELT

VA 2,600 2,400 1,000 1,300 2,600 3,120
TYPE 22, EASTERN

DISTRICT
ky 2,700 2,800 2,070 1,950 5,589 5,460
TENN 5,500 5,500 2,170 2,000 11,935 11,000
US 8,200 8,300 2,137 1,983 17,524 16,460
TYPE 23, WESTERN
DISTRICT
KY 2,600 2,600 2,450 2,000 6,370 5,200
TENN 460 460 2,350 1,900 1,081 874
us 3,060 3,060 2,435 1,985 7,451 6,074
TOTAL 21-23 13,860 13,760 1,990 1,864 27,575 25,654

CLASS 3, AIR-CURED
CLASS 3A, LIGHT

AIR-CURED

TYPE 31, BURLEY
IND 5,400 5,600 2,050 1,830 11,070 10,248
KY 140,000 145,000 2,050 1,950 287,000 282,750
MO 1,700 2,100 2,070 1,700 3,519 3,570
NC 7,900 8,500 1,785 1,750 14,102 14,875
OHIO 7,300 8,200 1,640 1,400 11,972 11,480
TENN 43,000 43,000 1,705 1,700 73,315 73,100
VA 8,700 9,200 1,815 1,600 15,790 14,720
WVA 1,800 1,900 1,440 1,250 2,592 2,375
us 215,800 223,500 1,943 1,848 419,360 413,118

TYPE 32, SOUTHERN MD
BELT I/
MD

11,700 10,000 1,140 1,280 13,338 12,800

PA 43000 32500 1,850 1,850 72400 67475

Us 152700 137500 17321 17428 20;738 192275

TOTAL 31-32 231,500 237,000 1,901 17824 440,098 432,393
SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE B-20... CONTINUED

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD

AUGUST 1988 A~24 NASS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: The August 1 pasture and range feed con-

dition was 51 percent, 27 points below
August 1, 1987 and 24 points below the 1977-86 average for the date. During
July, pasture and range conditions declined in 24 States, were unchanged in 5
States, and improved in 19 States. This was the lowest reported condition for
August 1 since 1936. Four States set new record lows for August 1. Seven
States were in the extreme drought range compared with 15 States on July 1.
Conditions improved in the Southeast. The Lake States remained in the extreme
drought range,

HOPS: The production forecast of 53.8 million pounds is 8 percent more than
1987 and 10 percent more than 1986. The yield, at 1,671 pounds per
acre, is down 97 pounds from last year.

Hop harvest is expected to begin in Washington around August 25. Cool
spring weather delayed maturity about a week. Hot weather the last two weeks
of July has stimulated development. Lower yields, especially in Washington
and Idaho, can be attributed in part to the harvest of young plants.

APPLES: The Nation's apple forecast, at 8.07 billion pounds, is virtually
unchanged from the July 1 forecast, but down 23 percent from last
year.

Production in the Eastern States is forecast at 2.80 billion pounds, up 2
percent from July 1 forecast but down 5 percent from last year. Harvest of
early varieties has begun. The New York apples were sizing well after late
July rains. Early varieties in New Jersey have some cracking damage this
year. In Maryland, the drought reduced fruit size thus lowering potential
Production. In New England area, reduced prospects for the 1988 crop mainly
are due to hail damage in early Juty and extended dry period through
mid-duly. Apple sizing expected to improve with ate July rains in
Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

The crop in the Central States, forecast at 1.12 billion pounds, is 5
percent less than July 1 and 29 percent less than last year. The drought in
Michigan has kept fruit size smal) and made fruit set light. Harvest of early
varieties is underway. Ohio's apple crop progressed under extreme stress
during early July. The droughty candittons were releived after mid-month
rains. Apple producers are concerned about fruit sizing and fruit bud
formation for next year's crop.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 4.15 billion pounds, down
31 percent from Jast year. In Washington, fruit size will be variable around
the state due to the unusual weather affects this year. The quality of
California apples has been affected adversely by the heat wave in July.
However, the total production would not be affected. The light Gravenstein
variety harvest is complete in the Sebastopol area. Picking of Granny Smith
variety apples is expected to start by late August.

PEACHES: The production forecast for allt peaches in the United States is 2.53

billion pounds, down 1 percent from July 1 but up 4 percent from
1987. Excluding California Clingstone peaches, the U.S. crop is forecast at
1.59 billion pounds, down 2 percent from July 1 but up 8 percent from last
year.

California Clingstone crop, at 940 million pounds, is unchanged from July
1 forecast but down 2 percent from 1987. About 40 percent of the crop was
picked by August 1. Quality has been average, but fruit size has been smaller
than expected.

California Freestone forecast of 510 mitlion pounds is unchanged from July
1 and slightly lower than last year's crop. Fruit quality has suffered from
the July heat wave and is now reported to be near average. About 70 percent
of the crop has been picked.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-10 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

‘YIELD PER ACRE

CROP
AND : r INDICATE
UNIT 1987 : 1988

CORN FOR GRAIN BU 2119.4 78.5 7,064,143 4,479,385
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN " 2 69.9 62.2 740,869 560,532
OATS " 54.0 38.4 373,765 206,330
BARLEY . 3 52.6 38.9 527,010 290,700 287,702
ALL WHEAT . 3 37.6 34.4 2,105,200 1,821,078

WINTER * 3 39.8 39.2 1,562,896 1,568,052 1,554,812

DURUM " : 28.2 18.5 92,617 54,580

OTHER SPRING * 3 33.7 20.6 449,687 211,686
RICE CWT 1/ : 5,482 5,342 127,725 162,556
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS BU : 33.7 26.0 1,904,712 1,473,986
PEANUTS FOR NUTS LB  : 2,341 2,632 3,619,440 4,338,100
ALL COTTON BALE 1/: 706 616 14,759.9 14,934.0

UPLAND "V/: 702 611 14,475.3 14,548.4

AMER-PIMA “1/2 1,000 940 284.6 385.6
COTTONSEED TON: 5,769 5,844
ALL HAY " : 2.46 1.97 149,142 130,509

ALFALFA : 3.32 2.71 84,554 69,487

ALL OTHER . 3 1.83 1.51 64,588 61,022
ORY EDIBLE BEANS CWT 1/: 1,540 1,410 26,309 21,035
SUMMER POTATOES CWT 2 228 214 22,797 19,779 19,715
TOBACCO lB : 2,028 2,034 1,190,674 1,262,391
SUGARBEETS TON i 22. 19.9 27,937 5,723
SUGARCANE FOR :

SUGAR AND SEED eo: 35.5 37.0 29,218 31,115
HOPS LB: 1,768 1,671 50,048 53,810
PASTURE AND 3

RANGE FEED 2/ PCT 3 78 51
APPLES, COM'L LB: 10,542,600 8,066,100 8,073,100
PEACHES * H 2,428,800 2,557,800 2,527,800
PEARS TON : 940.3 801. 818.1
GRAPES ” : 5,264.0 5,508.5
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) woot 53.5 50.0
OLIVES (CALIF) voy 67.5 85.0
1/ YIELD YN POUNDS.  2/ PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF
MONTH. THE 1977-86 AVERAGE IS 75 PERCENT.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

POTATOES
WINTER cwT
SPRING "
FALL "
SWEET CHERRIES TON
TART CHERRIES LB

APRICOTS

NECTARINES (CALIF)
PLUMS (CALIF)

DRIED PRUNES (CALIF)
ALMONDS (CALIF)
WALNUTS (CALIF)

va

CROP PRODUCTION,
AUGUST 1988

YIELD PER ACRE H

ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER

INDICATED
1988 1/

FORECAST.

AGRIC

PRODUCTION

INDICATED
1988 1/

2,501 2,824

173724 193831

3425774
210. 168.8

358,500 206,500
115. 100.
191.0 195.0
245.0 250.0
228.0 160.0
660.0 580.0
247.0 210.0

ULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA



Combines roared through the central Great Plains and by mid-July, wheat
harvest was 82 percent finished. This was 10 points ahead of normal and 7
points ahead of 1987. By month's end, 91 percent of the acreage was combined,
compared with 87 percent normally. Wheat harvest was concentrated mostly in
the Pacific Northwest but a few acres remained to be harvested in California,
Colorado, and Michigan. Spring wheat harvest leaped to 52 percent completion
by the end of July. Harvest progressed nearly eight times faster than normal
and was 35 points ahead of 1987. South Dakota's harvest reached 90 percent

completion, compared with the 29 percent average. Harvest was just beginning
in aho.

CORN FOR GRAIN: The first forecast of the 1988 corn for grain crop is 4.48
billion bushels, 37 percent below last year's crop and 46
percent below the 1986 production.

The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at 78.5 bushels per acres,
down 40.9 bushels from last year's record high of 119.4 bushels. Yields in
the leading States and bushel changes from last year are: Iowa 80, down 50;
Nebraska 114, down 17; Illinois 70, down 62; Indiana 70, down 65; Minnesota
70, down 57; Ohio 70, down 50; and Wisconsin 75, down 43.

The drought has reduced the area expected to be harvested for grain to
57.1 million acres, down 4 percent from July, and 4 percent below 1987.

Planting of the 1988 corn crop began well ahead of normal due to warm, and
dry weather this Spring. Hot, dry weather began having adverse affect on the
crop during June across most of the Corn Belt. Rainfall in July came too late
to help the crop in many areas.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: The 1988 production is forecast at 561 million bushels, 24
percent less than the 1987 production. Area for grain
harvest is 9.01 million acres, down 15 percent from last year and virtually
unchanged from the 1988 mid-year acreage estimate. This is the lowest acreage
for grain since 1953. Yields are expected to average 62.2 bushels per acre,
7.7 bushels per acre less than last season's record high average. California,
Georgia, and North Carolina yield prospects are above last year; all other
estimating States yield forecasts are under their respective 1987 averages.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-3 NASS, USDA


ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES

AREA HARV! STED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE : IND IND IND
1987 1988 1987 : 1988 1986 1987 1988
1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
po. A
ARIZ : 160 160 7.80 7.80 1,178 1,248 1,248
ARK : 35,7 25 3.00 2.00 105 . 105 50
CALIF : 1,150 1,100 6.70 6.70 7,128 7,705 7,370
COLO : 830 780 3.50 3.40 2,618 2,905 2,652
CONN : 21 19 2.60 2.50 57 55 48
DEL 2 9 8 2.75 3.25 21 25 26
IDAHO : 1,020 960 3.90 3.70 4,180 3,978 3,552
ILL : 570 570 3.90 2.50 2,583 2,223 1,425
IND : 380 430 3.80 2.50 1,400 1,444 1,075
IOWA > 1,450 2,400 3.75 2.40 6,080 5,438 5,760
KANS : 850 850 3.80 3.20 3,510 3,230 2,720
KY 3 260 270 3.30 2.70 816 858 729
LA : 12 10 2.80 2.80 32 34 28
MAINE H 24 22 2.25 2.20 54 54 48
MD : 85 80 3.75 2.40 248 319 192
MASS : 30 30 2.60 2.50 90 78 75
MICH > 1,180 1,300 3.20 2.30 5,040 3,776 2,990
MINN : 1,700 2,100 3.50 2.20 7,605 5,950 4,620
MO : 420 400 2.90 2.20 1,260 1,218 880
MONT : 1,300 950 2.20 1.80 2,990 2,860 1,710
NEBR : 1,250 1,250 3.50 3.00 4,658 4,375 3,750
NEV : 245 250 4.20 4.10 984 1,029 1,025
NH : 22 20 2.50 2.40 59 55 48
NJ : 40 39 3.40 3.20 146 136 125
N MEX 240 220 5.10 5.10 1,200 1,224 1,122
NY 930 905 2.80 2.50 2,636 2,604 2,262
NC : 25 30 2.80 2.75 60 70 83
N DAK : 1,600 950 1.90 0.80 3,255 3,040 760
OHIO : 725 725 3.70 2.50 2,701 2,683 1,812
OKLA : 410 410 3.30 2.90 1,505 1,353> 1,189
OREG : 430 415 4.20 4.30 1,932 1,806 1,784
PA : 850 840 3.20 2.90 2,688 2,720 2,436
RI : 3 2 2.70 2.60 9 8 5
S DAK : 2,350 2,300 2.20 1.50 6,250 5,170 3,450
TENN : 120 100 2.70 2.40 300 324 240
TEX : 140 150 3.50 3.50 640 490 525
UTAH : 465 480 4.10 4.10 1,833 1,907 1,968
VT : 120 115 2.50 2.40 288 300 276
VA : 124 120 2.80 2.70 264 347 324
WASH : 460 490 4.30 4.40 1,974 1,978 2,156
W VA : 80 70 2.80 2.30 225 224 161
WIS : 2,800 2,750 2.80 2.00 9,450 7,840 5,500
WYO : 570 560 2.40 2.30 1,500 1,368 1,288
US > 25,485 25,655 3.32 2.71 91,552 84,554 69,487
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

AUGUST 1988 A-21 NASS, USDA


PASTURE ANDO RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/

AVERAGE

STATE : AVERAGE
: 1977-86

1977-86

PERCENT

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50- 64;
SEVERE DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

PRUNES AND PLUMS

ys INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS): 1986-4,000,
1987-4, 300.

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

: ACRES 1,000 POUNDS
JUN > 3,910 4,445 2,300 2,405 4,525 4,770
JUL > 3,965 45360 2,330 2,380 4,785 5,470

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A~27 NASS, USDA


DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1/

1988 : 1986 : 1987

1987 1988
: 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
LARGE LIMA :
CALIF 3 21.0 29.0 2,100 2,200 385 44) 638
BABY LIMA :
CALIF 21.0 29.0 2,310 2,280 637 485 661
OTHER
CALIF 126.0 101.0 1,740 1,810 1,840 2,192 1,828
ALL
CALIF 168.0 159.0 1,856 1,967 2,862 3,118 3,127
coLo 180.0 195.0 1,450 1,430 2,701 2,610 2,789
IDAHO 148.0 108.0 1,900 1,850 2,724 2,812 1,998
KANS 25.0 20.0 1,450 1,650 380 363 330
MICH : 440.0 250.0 1,260 1,100 2,720 5,544 2,750
MINN : 74.0 62.0 1,600 850 1,007 1,184 527
MONT : 5.7 6.0 2,190 2,000 97 125 120
NEBR : 197.0 200.0 1,780 2,000 4,305 3,507 4,000
N MEX : 11.0 9.5 1,930 2,200 (aa 212 209
NY : 28.0 25.0 1,500 1,200 434 420 300
N DAK : 359.0 380.0 1,400 900 4,340 5,026 3,420
UTAH : 6.7 6.5 700 550 41 47 36
WASH : 35.0 36.0 2,130 2,160 670 746 778
Wyo : 31.0 35.0 1,920 1,860 605 595 651
us : 1,708.4 1,492.0 1,540 1,410 22,886 26,309 21,035

1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED. 2/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1987 CROP.

SUMMER POTATOES

1,000 ACRES CWT 1,000 CWT
ALA 7.0 6.5 165 100 986 1,085 650
CALIF 6.4 5.9 345 325 2,482 2,208 1,918
COLO 6.3 5.8 295 300 2,070 1,859 1,740
DEL 8.0 8.2 210 200 1,311 1,680 1,640
TLL Vv 2.8 3.0 260 160 783 728 480
IOWA 1/ 2.0 1.8 180 175 332 360 315
MD V 2.5 2.3 200 195 272 500 449
MICH 9.8 10.0 200 150 1,679 1,960 1,500
MINN 6.4 5.7 300 280 1,643 1,920 1,596
NEBR 1/ 2.6 2.3 310 270 605 806 621
Nd 7.4 5.8 190 190 1,944 1,406 1,102
N MEX 10.0 9.4 350 300 2,790 3,500 2,820
NC 1.9 1.4 130 110 209 247 154
TENN T/ 1.8 1.4 80 70 234 144 98
TEX 11.0 9.4 220 240 2,475 2,420 2,256
VA 14.1 13.2 140 180 1,112 1,974 2,376
US 100.0 92.1 228 214 20,927 22,797 19,715

1/7 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-23 NASS, USDA


Arkansas’ crop is rated in fair to good condition. June's drought cut
yield potential. Conditions are generally good in southeast Missouri, but
sorghum in the northern third of the State is rated poor because of the
drought.

As of July 31, 64 percent of Nebraska's sorghum was rated in fair condi-
tion; the remainder is rated in good condition. Heading has advanced to 60
percent, average is 4] percent. duly precipitation was near normal, or above,
across most of Kansas. Potential for the crop is still good since 67 percent
of the acreage rated good to excellent as of July 31. Most of Oklahoma's
sorghum is rated in good condition. Ample rainfall in the Panhandle has
enhanced growth. Harvest is progressing well in central Texas and the
Blackland areas. Fields are beginning to turn color in the Plains.

OATS: The first forecast of 1988 production indicates a crop of 206 million

bushels, down 45 percent from last year. The 1988 production would be
the smallest crop since estimates were first made in 1866. Area harvested for
grain, at 5.37 million acres, is 22 percent below the 1987 acreage and is also
a record low. Average yield is forecast at 38.4 bushels per acre, down 15.6
bushels from last year and the lowest since 1959.

Drought conditions in the major producing States of North and South Dakota,
Minnesota, and Wisconsin have sharply reduced yields. Yields in the South-
eastern States were up from last year.

BARLEY: Total production is forecast at 288 million bushels, down 1 percent

from last month and a 45 percent reduction from last year's output.
This is the smallest crop since 1953. The expected yield per acre is forecast
at 38.9 bushels compared with last season's average of 52.6 bushels. Area
harvested and to be harvested, at 7.40 million acres, is down 26 percent from
last year's 10.0 million acres.

Idaho production dropped 10 percent from 1987 to 55.3 million bushels.
North Dakota's drought reduced production of 43.7 million bushels is down 69
percent from last season's 139.2 million bushels. Extreme heat and drought
conditions reduced yields and advanced harvest 2 to 3 weeks ahead of normal
except where irrigated.

ALL WHEAT: Total production is forecast at 1.82 billion bushels, off 13 per-

cent from 1987 and the lowest since 1978. Area for grain is
expected to total 52.9 million acres, down 5 percent from 1987. All wheat
yield is expected to average 34.4 bushels per acre, 3.2 bushels less than
1987. The reduction is due to the drought-reduced spring wheat crop.

WINTER WHEAT: Production is forecast at 1.55 billion bushels as of August 1,

1988. This is 1 percent less than both the 1987 production and
the July 1 forecast. Area for grain is unchanged from last month at 39.7
million acres. Yield is now forecast at 39.2 bushels per acre, 0.6 bushels
less than 1987 and off 0.3 bushels per acre from July 1.

By the end of July about 88 percent of the winter wheat nationwide had
been harvested. Most of the acres remaining for harvest are in the Pacific
Northwest and Montana.

DURUM WHEAT: Production is forecast at 54.6 million bushels, down 41 percent
from 1987 to the lowest level since 1970. Yield is expected to
average only 18.5 bushels per acre, nearly 10 bushels per acre less than last
season. If realized, this would be the lowest yield average since 1961. Area
for grain is now estimated at 2.95 million acres, 10 percent less than in 1987.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-4 NASS, USDA



SOYBEANS FOR BEANS

STATE : > IND: : IND : : : IND
: 1987 : 1988 : 1987 : 1988: 1986 : 1987 : 1988
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA : 480 560 16.5 21.0 14,030 7,920 11,760
ARK : 3,150 3,150 22.0 21.0 66,000 69,300 66,150
DEL : 235 225 18.0 24.0 5,760 4,230 5,400
FLA : 93 115 25.0 25.0 3,220 2,325 2,875
GA : 780 850 20.0 21.0 13,940 15,600 17,850
ILL : 8,500 8,700 38.0 28.0 360,000 323,000 243,600
IND : 4,250 4,200 40.0 29.0 157,250 170,000 121,800
IOWA : 7,900 7,850 43.5 30.0 350,675 343,650 235,500
KANS : 2,710 2,100 32.0 29.0 58,290 67,520 60,900
kY : 960 950 25.0 27.0 35,840 24,000 25,650
LA : 1,600 1,670 23.5 20.0 35,000 37,600 33,400
MD : 410 455 22.5 25.0 10,530 9,225 11,375
MICH : 1,090 1,210 35.0 28.0 28,830 38,150 33,880
MINN > 4,650 4,600 39.0 24.0 162,750 181,350 110,400
MISS > 2,450 2,200 19.5 18.0 41,650 47,775 39,600
MO : 4,830 4,200 32.0 25.0 170,625 154,560 105,000
NEBR : 2,300 2,300 35.5 32.0 93,100 81,650 73,600
NJ Hy 99 103 31.0 27.0 3,276 3,069 2,781
NC : 1,340 1,420 24.5 26.0 36,720 32,830 36,920
N DAK : 475 630 32.5 13.0 16,450 15,438 8,190
OHIO : 3,980 3,700 37.0 28.0 146,610 147,260 103,600
OKLA : 230 320 25.0 21.0 4,800 5,750 6,720
PA : 165 205 34.0 29.0 5,425 5,610 5,945
$c H 730 780 21.5 20.0 13,695 15,695 15,600
S DAK > 1,390 1,700 32.5 18.0 40,565 45,175 30,600
TENN H 1,250 1,340 23.0 24.0 35,500 28,750 32,160
TEX : 150 235 28.0 28.0 4,370 4,200 6,580
VA : 520 §50 21.0 25.0 13,680 10,920 13,750
WIS : 320 400 38.0 31.0 11,520 12,160 12,400
US 56,437 56,718 33.7 26.0 1,940,101 1,904,712 1,473,986
CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

AUGUST 1988 A-18 NASS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION 1/

STATE
1986 1987 1988
: 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA : 250 170 72.0 «48.0 15,390 ‘18, 000 8,160
ARIZ : 20 17 100.0 130.0 23640 2,000 23210
ARK : 65 55 115.0 90.0 8,480 7,475 43950
CALIF: 190 160 150.0 153.0 38,000 28,500 24,480
colo: 690 820 155.0 145.0 99,400 106,950 118,900
CONN 1/:
DEL : 148 140 73.0 60.0 14,027 ‘10,804 8,400
FLA : 105 60 72.0 55.0 9,920 7,560 3,300
GA > 610 500 84.0 65.0 42,340 51,240 32,500
IDAHO: 50 60 130.0 135.0 7,800 6,500 8,100
TLL : 9,100 9,500 132.0 70.0 1,404,000 1,201,200 665,000
IND > 4,680 4,800 135.0 70.0 695,400 631,800 336,000
IOWA : 10,050 10,600 130.0 80.0 1,626,750 1,306,500 848,000
KANS + —*15180 V3150 320.0 110.0 1815560 "4415600 126,500
KY : 1,140 1,050 104.0 58.0 139,840 118,560 60,900
LA : 213 110 105.0 90.0 443660 —-22,365 95900
MAINE 1/ :
MD + 460 430 78.0 56.0 42,340 35,880 24,080
MASS 1/ :
MICH =: ~—-1,950 1,600 95.0 65.0 257,250 185,250 104,000
MINN 5,000 4,200 127.0 70.0 707,600 635,000 294,000
MISS 185 160 80.0 55.0 13,500 14,800 8,800
Mo : 2,150 2,000 113.0 65.0 280,720 242,950 —- 130,000
MONT 15 17 105.0 110.0 1,495 1,575 1,870
NEBR : 6,200 6,600 131.0 114.0 896,000 812,200 752,400
NH OW
Nd : 95 84 110.0 65.0 11,128 —-10, 450 5,460
N MEX: 49 51 155.0 155.0 83250 7,595 7,905
NY 510 500 109.0 85.0 61,380 55,590 42,500
NC 1,150 930 60.0 85.0 93,840 69,000 79,050
N DAK 500 280 93.0 45.0 49,290 46,500 ‘12,600
OHIO. = :_—«-3,020 2,900 120.0 70.0 476,160 362,400 203,000
OKLA 56 60 107.0 95.0 5,220 5,992 5,700
OREG 24 15 165.0 170.0 43800 3,960 2,550
PA 1,060 990 90.0 55.0 127,720 85,400 54,450
RI WV
SC 375 340 «78.0 55.0 21,160 29,250 —_—-18,700
S DAK 2,750 2,250 83.0 45.0 233,700 228,250 ~—«-101,,250
TENN 580 520 91.0 65.0 56,980 52,780 33,800
TEX 1,250 1,300 107.0 103.0 148,960 133,750 133,900
UTAH 2 22 140.0 125.0 25250 25800 23750
woo
VA 300 370 63.0 68.0 21,600 18,900 25, 160
WASH 80 80 170.0 170.0 20,400 13,600 ‘13,600
WA 50 51 72.0 50.0 6,300 3,600 2,550
WIS 2,800 2,100 118.0 75.0 365,800 330,400 ~—-157,500
WYO 47 41 117.0 110.0 5,814 5,217 43510
US 59,167 57,083 119.4 78.5 8,249,864 7,064,143 4,479,385
1/ NOT ESTIMATED.
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-10 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

JULY 30, 1988

VEREL YEE XTREMEL Yo
( =0R payin erg < 9 a
ai FAVORABLY *
we = = MOIST
h k =VNEXCESSIVELY
Ne a es = TSH VERELY
i
EXCESSIVELY, XS ERIREMELY. R
f—. i - " , ?

ABNOBMALLY. Nee en

AY mS “Ce. (eit f aly Wer

* EXCESSIVELY ‘ABNORMALLY
ORY

FA SEVERELY, EXCESSI
VO! RY:

MoigreY B oF EVERELY
CROP MOISTURE: DRY

Aespowbs AMPIDLE, CAN CHANGE CONSIDEBABLT WEEK. TO AENORMALLY—1\ *| i £
Compitions: at DRY.

SESG'aND END OF THE GROWING SEASON. '
t, WET

OSES...APPLICABLE IN MEASURING THE SHORT TERM, ”

Ce ee ee Te ecrise 1
SEszoW chaps’ ano Flake opeeariongyPTmNoS APPacrivG 2p SESS ELY

LIMITATIONS. . WAY NOT BE APPLICABLE TO GERMINATING AND SmaLion
‘UNABLE TO EXTRACT THE OREP OR SUBGOTL MOISTURE

hacer 38°F. IT SO TOT GENERALLT ENDICATITS Ok. NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY
CrED

THE
BY THE DROUGHT SEVERITY (MDEX. n oved on pratiminory report

DROUGHT SEVERITY
6 (LONG TERM, PALMER) oO

JULY 30, 1988 aaaes

MOIST

Oya».

Aneayy

j MODERAT

EXTREME

SEVERE

} EXTREME:

MOIST > SEVERE

SEVERE}? DERATE

DROUGHT, SEVERITY, INDEX (PALMER): DEPIGIS, PROS a
LONGED (WONTHS. YI ‘ABNORMAL DRYNESS OR WETNESS: X
RESPONDS SLOFLY: CHANGES LITTLE FROM WEEK TO NEE!
ND REFLECTS" LONG TERY A01STURE_AUNOTP. RECUARE MODERATE, /
1D DEEP PERCOLATION, AS WELL AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
s

ES. -APPLICABLE IN MEASURING DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF PROI
IDRYNESS OR WETNESS ON WATER SENSETIVE ECONOMIES; DESIGNATING DIS—
ASTER AREAS OF DROUGHT OR WETNESS; AND REFLECTING THE GENERAL, LONG MODERATE,
‘TERM STATUS OF WATER SUPPLIES 1N AQUIFERS, RESERVOIRS ,AND STREAMS. MOIST

\
LIMITATIONS. -.18 NOT GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SUORT TEhy (TER, VEEES)

BTATUS OF DROUGHT OR WETNESS SUCH AS FREQUENTLY AFFECTS CROPS NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY
FIELD OPERATIONS (THIS. [3 INDICATED BY TRE CROP MOISTURE TRDEX) Bored on praiinary reports

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

AUGUST 1988 B-1 NASS, USOA


PRODUCTION

CROP AND STATE : TOTAL 1/

BARTLETT H
CALIF : 285,000 325,000 295,000
OREG 2 55,000 78,000 70,000
WASH : 126,000 171,000 140,000
TOTAL : 466,000 574,000 505,000

EXCLUDING BARTLETT :
CALIF : 9,000 12,000 11,000
OREG 3 112,000 150,000 125,000
WASH : 140,000 165,000 140,000
A TOTAL : 261,000 327,000 276,000

LL :
CALIF : 294,000 337,000 306,000
COLO 2/ : 1,750 8,000 3,500
CONN 2/ : 1,600 1,450 1,600
MICH 3 11,000 8,000 10,000
NY : 19,000 15,000 17,300
OREG : 167,000 228,000 195,000
PA 2/ 3 3,800 3,200 2,500
UTAH 2/ : 2,200 3,600 2,200
WASH H 266,000 336,000 280,000
us 3 766,350 940,250 818,100

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS): WU S 1986-
6,000, 1987-2,650. 2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER
FORECAST.

GRAPES
PRODUCTION
CROP AND STATE 3 TOTAL 1/
beeeee nen een ee ween teen ne ence nee e! IND
1986 1987 1988
TONS
TABLE TYPE :
CALIF : 620,000 510,000 680,000
WINE TYPE 3
CALIF : 2,105,000 1,950,000 2,050,000
RAISIN TYPE 2/
CALIF : 2,045,000 2,200,000 2,250,000
ALL :
ARIZ : 23,000 31,000 27,500
ARK : 6,000 55000 7,000
CALIF t 4,770,000 4,660,000 4,980;000
6A : 23000 23700 3500
MICH : 32,000 60,000 50,000
MO : 2,900 2,750 3,200
NY : 164,000 178,000 166,000
NC : 15500 13800 23200
OHIO : 8,000 10,000 9,000
PA : 60,000 62,500 60,000
Sc : 500 700 1,100
WASH : 156,000 249,500 200,000
US : 5,225,900 5,263,950 5,508,500

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS): 1986-600;
1987-13,500. 2/ FRESH BASIS.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-30 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY ~ YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE : PRODUCTION

INDICATED

crop 3 : INDICATED: :
: 1987 > 1988 3 1987 3 JUL 1, : AUG 1,
3 1988 : 1988
METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 7.49 4.93 179,437,500 113,781,620
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 4.39 3.90 18,818,940 14,238,170
OATS 1.94 1.38 5,425,180 2,994,870
BARLEY 2.83 2.09 11,747,290 6,329,250 6,263,970
ALL WHEAT 2.53 2.3) 57,294,150 49,561,620

WINTER 2.67 2.63 42,535,060 42,675,380 42,315,050

OURUM H 1.90 1.25 2,520,620 1,485,420

OTHER SPRING : 2.27 1.38 12,238,470 51761,150
RICE : 6.14 5.99 5,793,510 6,919,820
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS : 2.27 1.75 51,837,770 40,315,320
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 2.62 2.95 1,641,740 1,967,720
ALL COTTON : 0.79 0.69 3,213,570 3,251,470

UPLAND : 0.79 0.69 3,151,610 3,167,520

AMER-PIMA 1.12 1.05 61,960 83,950
COTTONSEED 5,202,770 5,301,590
ALL HAY : 5.50 4.42 135,299,350 118,395,780

ALFALFA Hy 7.44 6.07 76,706,100 63,037,550

ALL OTHER 4.11 3.38 58,593,250 $5,358,230
ORY EDIBLE BEANS = 1.73 1.58 1,193,350 954,130
SUMMER POTATOES 2 25.55 23.99 1,034,070 897,160 894,250
TOBACCO + 2.27 2.28 540,080 572,610
SUGARBEETS > 50.04 44.50 25,344,020 23,335,510
SUGARCANE FOR 3

SUGAR AND SEED :; 79.53 82.92 26,506,130 28,227,050
HOPS t 1.98 1.87 22,700 24,410
APPLES, COM‘L : 4,782,020 3,658,700 3,661,880
PEACHES 3 1,101,680 1,169,260 1,146,580
PEARS 3 853,030 726,750 724,170
GRAPES : 4,775,420 4,997,230
PRUNES AND PLUMS

(EXCL CALIF} 48,530 45,360
OLIVES (CALIF) 61,230 77,140

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION

CROP DICATED : : INDICATED

1988 1/ 1987 1988 1/
METRIC TONS
POTATOES :

WINTER : 23.98 25.72 173,440 128,090

SPRING : 24.62 28.14 803,940 899,510

FALL : 35.24 15,547,890
SWEET CHERRIES : 191,230 153,130
TART CHERRIES : 162,610 93,670
APRICOTS 104,330 91,440
NECTARINES (CALIF) : 173,270 176,900
PLUMS (CALIF) : 222,260 226,800
DRIED PRUNES :

(CALIF) : 206,840 145,150
ALMONDS (CALIF) —: 299,370 263,080
WALNUTS (CALIF) 224,070 190,510
1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

AUGUST 1988 A-7 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED 1/
INDICATED

HECTARES
CORN : 26,590,560 27,324,260 23,944,290 23,100,920
SORGHUM : 4,776,960 4,230, 220 4,291,330 3,646,660
OATS : 7,267,830 5,655,950 2,802,480 2,171,970
BARLEY : 4,470,210 3,921,850 4,057,830 2,995,110
ALL WHEAT : 26,630,220 26,675,950 22,634,320 21,424,690
WINTER : 19,741,180 19,821,720 15,911,200 16,063,360
DURUM : 1,352,070 1,430,980 1,326,980 1,193,030
OTHER SPRING : 5,536,970 5,423,250 5,396,140 4,168,310
RICE : 951,830 1,166,720 942,930 1,155,790
SOYBEANS : 23,235,280 23,807,910 22,839,490 22,953,210
PEANUTS : 634,310 679,880 625,810 666,930
ALL COTTON : 4,211,690 4,920,550 4,061,190 4,707,310
UPLAND : 4,155,880 4,840,500 4,005,910 4,627,590
AMER-PIMA : 55,810 80,050 55,280 79,720
ALL HAY : 24,584,100 26,771,460
ALFALFA : 10,313,520 10,382,320
ALL OTHER : 14,270,580 16,389,140
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 728,680 628,240 691,370 603,800
SUMMER POTATOES —: 41,640 38,730 40,470 37,270
TOBACCO : 237,590 251,230
SUGARBEETS : 512,220 534,190 506,430 524,320
SUGARCANE FOR :
SUGAR AND SEED: 333,300 340,430
: 45 13,030

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.E., GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

: AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP : : INDICATED
1987 2 1988 1/ 1987 : 1988 1/
HECTARES

RYE : 1,010,920 1,002,820 276,400 243,220

FLAXSEED H 190,200 117,360 187,370 96,320
POTATOES :

WINTER H 4,820 5,060 4,730 4,980

SPRING : 33,390 32,420 32,660 31,970

FALL H 448,400 438,480 441,230 428,400

SUNFLOWER 2 730,470 738,560 718,320 710,640

SWEETPOTATOES : 39,130 38,000 37,760 36,660

1/_ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-6 NASS, USDA


COTTON

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION 1/

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 2/

UPLAND
ALA : 333.0 375.0 572 550 330.0 397.0 430.0
ARIZ 3 289.0 339.0 1,410 1,317 675.0 849.0 930.0
ARK : 550.0 670.0 786 702 602.0 901.0 980.0
CALIF : 1,140.0 1,335.0 1,259 1,061 2,245.0 2,989.0 2,950.0
FLA : 29.0 28.0 646 600 28.0 39.0 35.0
GA : 245.0 290.0 662 579 185.0 338.0 350.0
KANS 9 9 480 533 7 9 1.0
LA 3 600.0 615.0 782 663 673.0 977.0 850.0
MISS > 1,010.0 1,180.0 829 700 1,190.0 1,745.0 1,720.0
MO : 189.0 218.0 838 683 196.0 330.0 310.0
N MEX : 62.0 66.0 689 684 62.0 89.0 94.0
nC : 95.0 118.0 495 529 109.0 98.0 130.0
OKLA 3 400.0 410.0 415 398 210.0 346.0 340.0
sc H 119.0 142.0 428 490 87.0 106.0 145.0
TENN : 435.0 545.0 700 599 396.0 634.0 680.0
TEX : 4,400.0 5,100.0 506 433 2,535.0 4,635.0 4,600.0
VA : 1.8 3.0 373 544 1.5 1.4 3.4
US > 9,898.7 11,434.9 702 611 9,525.2 14,475.3 14,548.4

AMER-PIMA:
ARIZ 3 90.8 139.7 1,126 1,031 148.3 213.0 300.0
CALIF 9 1.8 1,173 960 2.2 3.6
N MEX 13.9 16.0 642 660 16.6 18.6 22.0
TEX 2 31.0 39.5 787 729 41.0 50.8 60.0
us 3 136.6 197.0 1,000 940 205.9 284.6 385.6

ALL :
ALA : 333.0 375.0 572 550 330.0 397.0 430.0
ARIZ : 379.8 478.7 1,342 1,233 823.3 1,062.0 1,230.0
ARK 3 550.0 670.0 786 702 602.0 901.0 980.0
CALIF : 1,140.9 1,336.8 1,258 1,061 2,245.0 2,991.2 2,953.6
FLA 3 29.0 28.0 646 600 28.0 39.0 35.0
GA : 245.0 290.0 662 579 185.0 338.0 350.0
KANS ) 9 480 533 7 ) 1.0
LA 3 600.0 615.0 782 663 673.0 977.0 850.0
MISS : 1,010.0 1,180.0 829 700 1,190.0 1,745.0 1,720.06
MO : 189.0 218.0 838 683 196.0 330.0 310.0
N MEX : 75.9 82.0 680 679 78.6 107.6 116.0
NC : 95.0 118.0 495 529 109.0 98.0 130.0
OKLA : 400.0 410.0 415 398 210.0 346.0 340.0
sc : 119.0 142.0 428 490 87.0 106.0 145.0
TENN 3 435.0 545.0 700 599 396.0 634.0 680.0
TEX : 4,431.0 5,139.5 508 435 2,576.0 4,685.8 4,660.0
VA : 1.8 3.0 373 544 1.5 1.4 3.4
us : 10,035.3 11,631.9 706 616 9,731.1 14,759.9 14,934.0

T/ PROOUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED. 2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.
COTTONSEED

PRODUCTION
STATE pace ee ne ne ene ee nn ee ee ee en ne eee ee eee eee
1986 : 1987 1988

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-19 NASS, USDA


1986-88

STATE: SORGHUM : SUMMER ORY EDIBLE
: : POTATOES BEANS
1,000 ACRES

ALA : 40 6.7

ARIZ : 5

ARK : 360

CALIF 2 20 5.9 *164.0

COLO i 350 6.0 200.0

DEL 3 8.2

FLA :

GA : 90

IDAHO : 110.0

ILL : 80 3.1

IND :

10WA : 1.8

KANS : 3,600 21.0

KY : 15

LA 2 135

MD : 2.3

MICH 11.5 *260.0

MINN : 5.9 65.0

MISS : 150

MO : *450

MONT : 6.3

NEBR 2 1,600 2.4 *210.0

NEV :

NJ : *5.9

N MEX : 145 9.6 9.5

NY : 27.0

NC : 100 1.5

N DAK : 400.0

OHIO :

OKLA : 480

OREG 3

PA :

sc : 28

S DAK : *460

TENN : 45 1.4

TEX : 2,300 9.5

* UPDATED FROM "CROP PRODUCTION” REPORT RELEASED JULY 12, 1988.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-9 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE - CONTINUED

CLASS AND TYPE 90 teenn-----2--------------- 2-2 n-ne ee eee eee nee
: IND: : IND: : IND
1987 : 1988 : 1987 : 1988 : 1987: 1988
ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
CLASS 3B, DARK
AIR-CURED
TYPE 35, ONE SUCKER
BELT :
kY 3 1,900 2,000 1,940 1,900 3,686 3,800
TENN : 480 480 2,000 1,900 960 912
US : 2,380 2,480 1,952 1,900 4,646 4,712
TYPE 36, GREEN RIVER
BELT :
KY : 1,100 1,200 2,000 1,900 2,200 2,280
TYPE 37, VA SUN-CURED :
BELT :
VA H 130 130 1,000 1,100 130 143

TOTAL 35-37 : 3,610 3,810 1,932 1,873 6,976 7,135
CLASS 4, CIGAR FILLER :
TYPE 41, PA SEEDLEAF :

PA : 7,000 6,500 1,900 1,900 13,300 12,350
TYPE 42-44 OHIO-MIAMI :

VALLEY TYPES :

OHIO 2/ 3: 50 20 1,440 1,200 72 24
TOTAL 41-44 2/ : 7,050 6,520 1,897 1,898 13,372 12,374
CLASS 5, CIGAR BINDER :
CLASS 5A, CONN VALLEY :

BINDER
TYPE 51, CONN VALLEY

BROADLEAF 3

CONN : 930 900 1,700 1,700 1,581 1,530

MASS : 110 100 1,800 1,800 198 180

US : 1,040 1,000 1,711 1,710 1,779 1,710
CLASS 5B, WIS BINDER :

TYPE 54, SOUTHERN WIS :

WIS > 2,700 2,000 2,100 2,000 5,670 4,000
TYPE 55, NORTHERN WIS :

WIS : 1,500 1,100 1,800 1,700 2,700 1,870
TOTAL 54-55 : 4,200 3,100 1,993 1,894 8,370 5,870
TOTAL 51-55 : 5,240 4,100 1,937 1,849 10,149 7,580
CLASS 6, CIGAR WRAPPER :

TYPE 61, CONN VALLEY
SHADE-GROWN :

CONN : 870 960 1,305 1,400 1,135 1,344

MASS : 410 420 1,110 1,300 455 546

US : 1,280 1,380 1,242 1,370 1,590 1,890

ALL CIGAR TYPES H
TOTAL 41-61 : 13,570 12,000 1,850 1,820 25,111 21,844
ALL TOBACCO 1/ : 587,140 620,770 2,028 2,034 1,190,674 1,262,391

1/ 1987 REVISED. 2/ INCLUDES BINDER TYPES GROWN IN OHIO.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
AUGUST 1988 A-25 NASS, USDA


United States
Department of
Agriculture

Crop
Production

Agricultural
Statistics
Board

Washington, D.C.

RELEASED: AUGUST 11, 1988
3:00 P.M. ET

HIGHLIGHTS

ALL WHEAT production is forecast at 1.82 billion bushels, down 13 percent from
1987 to the lowest level since 1978. The 90 percent confidence interval
for this production forecast is 1.76 to 1.88 billion bushels,

CORN FOR GRAIN production is forecast at 4.48 billion bushels, down 37 percent
from last year's crop. Yield is forecast at 78.5 bushels per acre. The

90 percent confidence interva) for this production forecast is 3.8 to 5.1
billion bushels.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at 1.47 billion bushels, 23 percent below last
year. If realized, this will be the lowest production since 1976. Yield
at 26.0 bushels per acre is the lowest since 1974. The 90 percent
conf idence interval for this production forecast is 1.30 to 1.64 billion
ushels.

ALL COTTON production for the 1988 season is forecast at 14.9 million bales,
an increase of 1 percent from the 1987 crop.

ALL TOBACCO: Production is forecast at 1.26 billion pounds, 6 percent above
1987. The higher production from a year ago is primarily the result of
increased acreage.

PEANUT production is forecast at 4.34 billion pounds, up 20 percent from last
year. Production is up in all areas except the Southwest.

ALL HAY: Production, at 131 million tons, is down 12 percent from 1987.
The change is a result of sharply lower yields which more than offset an
increase in hay acreage.

NUMBER OF FARMS in the U.S. in 1988 is estimated at 2.16 million, down 1 per-
cent from 1987. For the first time, land in farms has declined to less
than a billion acres, falling to 999 million acres, a decrease of less
than 1 percent from 1987. Average size af farms increased from 461 acres
last year to 463 acres in 1988.

FAI I III IR III AKI I TI IISA III I IIS IS IIIT III IA IIS IIIA ISI I TAI III III SAI IIIA

NOTICE

REVISIONS HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE 1988 PLANTED ACREAGE ESTIMATES FOR
COTTON, DRY EDIBLE BEANS, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUMMER POTATOES-~
SHOWN ON PAGE A-8. THESE REVISIONS ARE BASED ON REGULARLY SCHED~
~ULED AUGUST 1 SURVEYS AND ADMINISTRATIVE DATA.

THE FIRST FORECAST FOR THE 1988 U.S. FILBERT CROP WILL BE PUBLISHED
IN FILBERT PRODUCTION TO BE RELEASED AUGUST 25, 1988.

FEISS ISHII IIIT O IO I TIO TIT EOI TTI OT IR IOI TTT ISO IISA

Pe a ee
OR RO OR OF

CrPr 2-2 (8-88) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


Farm number statistics are based on the official definition of a farm
which is also used by the Census of Agriculture: “any establishment from
which $1,000 or more of agricultural products were sold or would normally be
sold during the year." Estimates of land include all cropland, pasture,
woodland and wasteland operated as part of these establishments. The data are
collected each year as part of the June Agricultural Survey, and estimates are
plotted on time series charts for each State, multi-State region, and for the
United States': total. Estimates are reviewed every five years when data
becomes available from the Census of Agriculture.

The series of USDA farm number estimates dates back to 1910, and estimates
of land in farms to 1950. The procedures for making these estimates have
changed over the years, including changes in the basic definition of a farm.
The following table shows the level of agricultural activity that was necessary
to be classified as a "farm" during different periods of our history.

WHAT IT TOOK TO BE CALLED A “FARM”

— _ —

TIME PERIOD AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY NEEDED TO BE
COUNTED AS A FARM *

8 or more acres

-or-
1910-1924 $260 or greater value of production
-or- (sales or home use)

Full time services of at least one person

8 or more acres

. -or-
1926-1048 $260 or greater value of production

(sales or home use)

83 or more acres and $160 or greater

falue of production (sales or home use)
1060-1954 value orp ( use}

$260 or more sales

10 or more acres and $60 or more sales

1966-1074 “or-
$260 or more sales

1976-Present $1,000 or more sales

omen me

* Certain exceptions were made for establishments not having a
normal production year.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-16 NASS, USDA


STATE :
1987, : ~=1988

1988 : 1987: 1988 :

1987
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA : 25 20 43.0 51.0 1,200 1,075 1,020
ARK : 18 35 70.0 = 83.0 2,211 1,260 25905
CALIF =: 40 35 70.0 70.0 3,150 2,800 2,450
coLo : 50 60 60.0 54.0 25200 3,000 3,240
GA : 30 45 55.0 63.0 1,365 1,650 2,835
IDAHO: 36 40 75.0 60.0 2,070 2,700 2,400
ILt : 190 199 69.0 53.0 14,400 13,110 10,070
IND : 95 75 67.0 40.0 6,390 6,365 3,000
TOWA : 650 500 55.0 45.0 39,060 35,750 22,500
KANS : 155 180 42.0 41.0 10,800 6,510 7,380
KY : 7 8 52.0 40.0 252 364 320
MAINE 38 38 «75.0 75.0 2,600 2,850 2,850
MD : 19 17. 52.0 60.0 825 988 1,020
MICH : 300 220 57,0 35.0 17,010 17,100 7,700
MINN : 800 450 57.0 36.0 43,350 45,600 16,200
MO : 90 40 38.0 36.0 5,000 3,420 1,440
MONT : 110 90 55.0 30.0 4,140 6,050 2,700
NEBR : 360 300 48.0 37.0 21,240 17,280 11,100
NJ : 5 4 52.0 50.0 216 260 200
NY : 200 140 60.0 55.0 12,920 12,000 7,700
NC : 60 55 59.0 60.0 2,200 3,540 3,300
NDAK 700 400 52.0 20.0 38,500 36,400 8,000
OHIO : 250 200 70.0 45.0 12,160 17,500 9,000
OKLA : 60 65 38.0 45.0 4,400 2,280 2,925
OREG : 65 60 80.0 94.0 7,600 5,200 5,640
PA : 260 260 57.0 50.0 16,120 14820 13,000
Sc : 33 48 51.0 59.0 1,008 1,683 2,832
S DAK : 1,150 800 46.0 22.0 46,200 52,900 17,600
TEX : 220 270 45.0 41.0 8,400 9,900 11,070
UTAH : 14 15 69.0 72.0 864 966 1,080
VA : 7 14 47.0 «52.0 460 329 728
WASH : 35 37. 66.0 67.0 2,145 2,310 2,479
WA : 8 6 50.0 41.0 500 400 246
WIS : 800 600 54.0 29.0 52,700 43,200 17,400
wyo : 45 50 49.0 40.0 25700 25205 2,000
US : 6,925 5,367 54.0 38.4 386,356 373,765 206,330
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

AUGUST 1988 A-12 NASS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE IND IND IND
1987 1988 1987 1988 1986 1987 1988
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA : 40 25 48.0 45.0 4,000 1,920 1,125
ARIZ H W 4 90.0 85.0 1,044 990 340
ARK : 405 345 72.0 67.0 40,920 29,160 23,115
CALIF : 20 16 90.0 92.0 2,210 1,800 1,472
COLO : 230 260 43.0 41.0 11,700 9,890 10,660
GA 3 60 45 40.0 43.0 2,706 2,400 1,935
ILL : 140 70 86.0 70.0 19,000 12,040 4,900
KANS : 3,750 3,250 73.0 64.0 311,250 273,750 208,000
kY : 26 VW 70.0 50.0 4,275 1,820 550
LA H 172 115 72.0 62.0 23,800 12,384 7,130
MISS : 145 130 65.0 60.0 14,400 9,425 7,800
MO : 700 430 85.0 67.0 92,340 59,500 28,810
NEBR : 1,300 1,350 84.0 75.0 136,170 109,200 101,250
N MEX : 140 130 57.0 53.0 10,350 7,980 6,890
NC : 45 65 43.0 45.0 1,400 1,935 2,925
OKLA 2 410 360 46.0 43.0 23,030 18,860 15,480
sc 3 15 10 37.0 34.0 1,024 555 340
S DAK : 270 260 53.0 36.0 14,030 14,310 9,360
TENN : 75 35 80.0 70.0 10,725 6,000 2,450
TEX : 2,650 2,100 63.0 60.0 213,750 166,950 126,000
US : 10,604 9,011 69.9 62.2 938,124 740,869 560,532
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

AUGUST 1988 A-11 NASS, USDA


The August 1 forecast for California's wine type grapes, based on the
findings of the grape objective measurement survey, is set at 2.05 million
tons, up 5 percent from the initial forecast set in July. Wine grapes are
maturing at a normal pace. Harvest will begin in the San Joaquin Valley in
mid-August. Record hot temperatures as high as 112 degrees in July stressed
vineyards in several areas.

The August 1 forecast for California table type grapes is set at 680
thousand tons, a 80.0 thousand ton or 13 percent increase from the initial
1988 estimate set in July. If realized, this will be a third larger than the
1987 production tevel. The California table grape harvest began during
mid-May in the Coachella Valley. Superior seedless and perlette were the
first varieties harvested followed by the Flame seedless variety. Heavy
yields were reported. More Flame seedless grapes were available this year due
to higher bearing acreage. Harvesting began in the San Joaquin Valley by the
first of July. Tight water supplies have not affected table grape production
up to this point. Tokay grapes received some burn damage in the Lodi area
from the record high temperatures in mid-July. Overall table grape quality
has been very good.

The Michigan grape crop is forecast in 50.0 thousand tons, down 17 percent
from last year. The prolonged drought has led to a reduction in the size of
the crop. High Brix is expected, and if disease problems are kept to a
minimum it could be a vintage year for Michigan vintners. Harvest of early
wine grapes is expected to begin by late August, with Concord harvest expected
by mid-September. The New York all grape forecast is set at 166 thousand
tons, a 7 percent decline from last season. Growing conditions have been
generally good except for dryness which was recently broken. In general,
bunch counts have been higher than normal while berry size and count have been
smaller than normal. Grape production in Pennsylvania is forecast at 60.0
thousand tons, 4 percent below last year. Average date of full bloom for
Pennsylvania's grapes in 1988 was June 18, compared with June 12 in 1987.
Comments from growers in northwest Pennsylvania, the major producing area,
appear to be optimistic but additional rain is needed. Disease and insect
Problems seem to be minimal. The Washington forecast for all grapes is 200
thousand tons, 20 percent below 1987 production. The forecast consists of 150
thousand tons of Concord grapes and 50.0 thousand tons of wine varieties.
Indications point to the Concord crop being similar to 1986 but below the 1987
record crop. Berry cluster counts and weights are average to below average
resulting from the long bloom period caused by the cool spring and early
summer temperatures. Wine grapes had better weather conditions during bloom
and set. An excellent crop is currently expected. Some new acreage is coming
into production.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: Production in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is ex-
pected to total 50.0 thousand tons, 7 percent less than
last year but 4 percent more than 1986.

Idaho expects 5,000 tons, down 19 percent from 1987. Frost in early May
and an isolated hail storm have caused some damage. Insect and disease damage
has been Vight. Picking has begun and is expected to be in full swing in
mid-August.

Michigan's crop is forecast at 12.0 thousand tons, down 25 percent from
last year. Quality is good but the drought has kept fruit size small.
Harvest is expected to start the last half of August.

The Oregon forecast of 23.0 thousand tons is up 21 percent from 1987.
Orchards in the Western part of the State have fruit with very good size and
quality is better than last year.

Washington forecast, at 10.0 thousand tons, is down 19 percent from last
year. Harvest is expected to start in mid-August with small sized fruit.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-12 NASS, USDA



NUMBER OF FARMS AND LAND IN FARMS, BY STATES, JUNE 1, 1986-88 1/

NUMBER 1,000 ACRES
ALA : 51,000 49,000 49,000 11,000 11,000 11,000
ALAS : 670 660 650 1,410 1,400 1,380
ARIZ: 8,600 8,400 8,100 37,200 37,000 36,500
ARK : 50,000 49,000 47,000 15,700 153400 15,000
CALIF 79,000 78,000 78,000 32,800 32,600 32,500
coLo : 26,600 27,000 27,300 34,200 34,000 33,700
CONN: 3,800 3,700 3,700 450 440 440
OEL : 3,200 3,100 3,000 640 620 590
FLA : 39,000 39,000 40,000 13,000 13,000 13,000
GA 7 49,000 48,000 49,000 13,300 13,000 13,000
HAW : 4,400 4,300 4,400 1,950 1,950 1,950
IDAHQ : 24,000 23,000 22,500 14,200 13,800 13,700
ILL : 86,000 84,000 83,000 28,700 28,600 28,600
IND : 77,000 72,000 72,000 16,400 16,200 16,400
10WA =: ~—-:109,.000 107,000 107,000 33,600 33,500 33,500
KANS : 70,000 70,000 69,000 47,900 47,900 47,900
KY : 99,000 99,000 99,000 14,500 14,500 14,500
LA : 36,000 36,000 35,000 10,000 9,700 9,500
MAINE =: 7,800 7,800 7,800 1,520 1,520 7,500
MD : 17,000 16,500 16,000 2,500 2,450 2,350
MASS: 6,000 6,000 6,100 680 680 680
MICH: 60,000 58,000 58,000 11,300 11,300 11,200
MINN: 93,000 92,000 94,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
MISS: 46,000 45,000 43,000 14,000 13,800 13,500
MO : 115,000 114,000 113,000 30,700 30,600 30,400
MONT: 23,600 23,300 23,300 60,900 60,800 60,700
NEBR: 57,000 56,000 55,000 47,200 47,200 47,100
NEV 3 2,400 2,400 2,400 8,800 8,800 8,800
NH : 3,200 3,200 3,300 520 520 520
Ng 8,200 7,600 7,400 900 850 830
N MEX: 13,600 13,500 13,500 44,600 44,600 45,000
NY : 42,000 40,500 40,000 8,700 8,600 8,500
NC : 73,000 72,000 70,000 10,800 10,800 10,500
N DAK: 33,000 32,500 32,500 40,700 40,500 40,400
OHIO: 88,000 84,000 84,000 15,800 15,600 15,600
ok : 77,000 70,000 69,000 33,000 33,000 335000
OREG : 37,000 37,000 36,500 17,900 17,900 17,800
PA 3 56,500 56,500 56,000 8,500 8,500 8,400
RI : 750 750 750 73 73 72
sc : 27,000 26,000 26,500 5,400 5,200 5,300
S DAK : 36,000 35,000 34,500 44,500 44,300 44,100
TENN: 96,000 96,000 94,000 13,000 12,600 12,800
TEX : 162,000 160,000 156,000 134,000 133,200 132,000
UTAH: 13,700 13,600 13,300 11,400 11,300 11,300
VT : 7,100 7,100 7,100 1,600 1,600 1,580
VA : 50,000 50,000 49,000 9,600 9,600 9,600
WASH: 38,000 38,000 38,000 16,000 16,000 16,000
WVA 3 21,000 21,000 20,500 3,700 3,700 3,600
WIS 3 82,000 81,000 82,000 17,600 17,600 17,600
WYO : 8,800 8,700 8,700 34,800 34,800 34,800
US : 2,211,920 2,176,110 2.158,800 1,007,643 1,002,603 998,692

V/ A-FARM IS AN ESTABLISHMENT THAT AS OF JUNE 1 SOLD OR WOULO NORMALLY HAVE
SOLD $1,000 OR MORE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS DURING THE YEAR.

2/ PRELIMINARY.

3/ THIS SERIES HAS BEEN REVISED BASED ON SUPPLEMENTAL DATA OBTAINED IN CON-
JUNCTION WITH A COMPREHENSIVE STUDY CONDUCTED IN 1987.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-32 NASS, USDA


One can clearly see the effect of the 1975 definitional change in the

following graph showing average size of farm. USDA has sought to keep such
disruptions in-the data series to a minimum.

AVERAGE SIZE OF FARM
(1950 - Present)

ACRES PER FARM
00

400

300

200

TOO bevreereceesseesesseeeeenteenssneeatestsensssessessuessessaeesesstsaneseessssarasaesenanesecsesseseseeneennees

fo)
1960 1960 1970 1980
YEAR

In overview, this century has seen a dramatic trend downward in the number
of farms. The current count is about one-third of the number estimated in the
early 1900's. Land in farms has also been on the decline, but to a lesser

extent than number of farms, while the average size of farms has doubled since
1950.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-17 NASS, USDA


NUMBER OF FARMS AND LAND IN FARMS, UNITED STATES, JUNE 1, 1983-88 1/

YEAR 3 NUMBER OF 3 LAND IN AVERAGE SIZE

H FARMS H FARMS : OF FARMS

THOUSANDS THOUSAND ACRES ACRES
1983 : 2,370 1,024,195 432
1984 : 2,328 1,019,378 438
1985 : 2,275 1,014,383 446
1986 : 2,212 1,007,643 456
1987 : 2,176 1,002,603 461
1988 2/ 2,159 998,692 463

SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE A-32.

PERCENT OF FARMS, LAND IN FARMS, AND AVERAGE SIZE, BY ECONOMIC CLASS,
UNITED STATES, JUNE 1, 1985-88 3/

ECONOMIC CLASS
GROSS VALUE

SIZE OF
FARMS

OF SALES
eee : PERCENT
$ 1,000-$ 2,499 : 26.0 27.0 4.0
$ 2,500-$ 4,999 : 14.8 14.4 318
$ 5,000-$ 9,999 12.1 12.3 4.9
$ 10;000-$ 193999 > 10.4 10:4 6.8
$ 20;,000-$ 39,999 : 918 9:9 915
$ 40;000-§ 99,999 : 13.6 12.8 23.9
$100;000-§249,999 9.8 9:4 25.8
$250,000 + : BIB 3.8 21.3
TOTAL 0.0
AVERAGE
SIZE OF
: PERCENT ACRES
$ 1,000-§ 2,499 2 27.1 24.5 4.6 3.5 78 66
$ 2,500-$ 4,999 : 14l8 14.7 4:0 313 125 104
$ 5,000-§ 9,999 : 12.8 12.1 5.4 aco 194 187
$ 10,000-$ 19,999 : 9.8 10.4 6.7 6.5 315 289
$ 20,000-§ 39,999 : 9.5 10.5 1120 1133 533 498
$ 40,000-§ 99,999 : 12.8 13.3 23.0 19.1 828 664
$100,000-$249,999 943 10:2 25.8 27.1 1,278 =~ 1,229
$250,000 + : 3.9 423 19.5 24:3 23304 ~=—_23.614
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 461 463
SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE A-32.
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

AUGUST 1988 A-31 NASS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION
AUGUST 1988

380.0
340.0
680.0
1,350.0

32.0
300.0

700.0

1,230.0
220.0

70.0
*120.0

440.0
145.0

550.0
5,400.0

3.0

*590
3,250

230
*120
*900

8,800
*4,300
7,950
*2,200
980
1,800
465
*1,250
4,900
2,400
4,300

*2,400

105
16.0

*1,470
700
3,900
350

210

*800

1,800

1,400

40.0 *260

570
430

UNITED STATES

* UPDATED FROM "CROP PRODUCTION" REPORT RELEASED JULY 12, 1988.

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

NASS, USDA


ALL OTHER HAY

1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
ALA : 700 750 2.10 1.90 1,120 1,470 | 1,425
ARIZ : 30 20 4.50 3.80 84 135 76
ARK : 950 925 1.70 1.40 1,840 1,615 1,295
CALIF : 520 580 2.50 2.50 1,500 1,300 1,450
COLO : 670 870 1.70 1.65 1,024 1,139 1,435
CONN : 67 64 2.15 2.00 152 144 128
DEL : 14 7 1.95 2.00 29 27 34
FLA : 275 270 2.90 2.90 676 798 783
GA z 600 600 2.20 1.90 901 1,320 1,140
IDAHO : 250 220 2.10 1.50 540 525 330
ILL : 430 930 2.20 1.60 1,087 946 1,488
IND H 350 700 2.30 1.20 836 805 840
TOWA : 650 1,000 2.30 1.50 1,920 1,495 1,500
KANS > 1,550 1,650 1.80 1.50 2,880 2,790 2,475
KY : 1,900 2,100 1.80 1.60 2,772 3,420 3,360
LA : 348 355 2.70 2.40 749 940 852
MAINE : 192 185 1.95 1.85 394 374 342
MD : 150 145 2.15 1.95 261 323 283
MASS : 97 98 2.20 2.10 235 213 206
MICH : 320 650 1.90 1.40 703 608 910
MINN : 925 1,420 2.00 1.60 2,070 1,850 2,272
MISS : 570 650 2.50 1.80 1,160 1,425 1,170
Mo : 3,100 3,500 1.60 1.10 4,768 4,960 3,850
MONT : 900 950 1.50 1.10 1,330 1,350 1,045
NEBR : 1,750 2,450 1.20 1.10 2,730 2,100 2,695
NEV 3 270 260 1.30 1.20 392 351 312
NH : 63 67 2.00 1.90 139 326 127
Nd : 72 71 2.10 2.00 151 151 142
N MEX : 65 55 1.80 1.80 119 117 99
NY : 1,300 1,325 2.05 1.95 2,772 2,665 2,583
NC : 410 420 1.60 1.55 513 656 651
N DAK : 1,350 1,350 1.30 0.80 2,170 1,755 1,080
OHIO : 725 950 2.40 1.50 1,606 1,740 1,425
OKLA : 1,800 1,850 1.70 1.40 2,790 3,060 2,590
OREG : 690 650 1.75 1.75 1,202 1,208 1,138
PA : = 1,180 1,240 2.10 2.00 2,436 2,478 2,480
RI z 5 6 2.20 2.20 14 VW 13
$c : 225 240 2.00 1.80 328 450 432
S DAK : 1,600 2,300 1.20 1.00 3,080 1,920 2,300
TENN : 1,450 1,500 1.60 1.40 1,792 2,320 2,100
TEX : 3,100 3,100 2.40 1,90 6,820 7,440 5,890
UTAH : 160 145 2.10 1.90 302 336 275
VT : 290 280 1.90 1.80 650 551 504
VA : 1,200 1,180 1.50 1.50 . 1,200 1,800 1,770
WASH : 300 310 2.40 2.70 900 720 837
W VA 550 550 1.40 1.10 576 770 605
WIS 520 900 2.00 1.60 1,325 1,040 1,440
WYO 630 650 1.35 1.30 945 851 845
US 35,263 40,498 1.83 1.51 63,977 64,588 61,022

1/ INCLUDES SET ASIDE AND CONSERVATION RESERVE ACRES THAT WERE RELEASED FOR
HAYING AND EXPECTED TO BE HARVESTED FOR HAY.

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATTISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-22 NASS, USDA

oan


ALL OTHER HAY: Production of all other hay is expected to total 61.0 million

tons. This is 6 percent less than a year earlier. Area
harvested is expected to total 40.5 million acres, 15 percent above last.
Yield per acre is expected to average [.51 tons, compared with 1.83 tons per
acre in 1987.

COTTON: Production for the 1988 season is expected to total 14.9 million
bales, 1 percent above the 1987 crop.

The forecast is for 14.5 million bales of Upland and a record large crop
of 386 thousand bales of American-Pima,

Planted area, at 12.2 million acres, is up 17 percent from last year.
Growers expect to harvest 11.6 million acres, 16 percent above jast year.
Yield is expected to average 616 pounds per acre, 90 pounds below the 1987
record.

In Texas and Oklahoma, Upland production is forecast at 4.94 million
bales, 1 percent below last year. [n Texas recent hot, dry conditions are
allowing the crop in the Plains to make good progress. Harvest is continuing
in the Valley and Coastal Bend. Bolls are opening in the Blackland and
Central Texas. In Oklahoma, the crop is rated in good condition.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and
Tennessee) expect to produce 4.54 million bales, down 1 percent from last
year. After a rough start, the crop is much improved in the Region. Despite
lower plant population, the crop is fruiting heavily in most areas. A record
crop is forecast in Tennessee.

Growers in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) expect
to harvest 3.97 million bales of Upland cotton, 1 percent above last year
Late plantings and replantings in Arizona and California have resulted in crop
progress to be behind normal. However, because of the late crop development
in California the number of record hot days in July did not hurt boll set.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina,
and South Carolina) is forecast at 1.06 miftion bales, up 12 percent from last
year. The crop got off to a slow start because of dry conditions in the
Region. However, improved moisture conditions in most areas have resulted in
the crop progressing near normal or above normal.

Bureau of the Census reports 136,063 running bales ginned prior to August 1
compared with 1,178 running bales to the same date last year and 145,022 bales
in 1986.

COTTONSEED: Production for 1988, based on a three year average lint-seed
ratio, is forecast at 5.84 million tons, ] percent above the 1987
production of 5.77 million tons.

DRY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry beans is forecast at 21.0 million cwt,

down 20 percent from last year and 8 percent below 1986.
Area for harvest has been adjusted to 1.49 million acres, 13 percent below
last year and slightly below 1986. The average yield is expected to drop to
1410 pounds per acre, down 8 percent from the last two years,

The 1988 heat wave has severely damaged dry bean fields from New York to
North Dakota. Michigan farmers gave up on trying to plant beans in dry soil.
Minnesota and North Dakota yields are expected to drop by one-third to
one-half of last year's levels. Cutting and windrowing has started where high
temperature hastened maturity.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B~7 NASS, USDA


In Western States, where irrigation is used extensively, dry beans have
faired better, although the heat has caused some blossom loss. Nebraska and
Colorado have reported some hail damage, but not as serious as last year.
Harvest has started in California on early fields. Growing conditions have
been good despite the record number of hot days. Idaho beans have Yost some
blossoms and set from heat stress.

SUMMER POTATOES: Production is forecast at 19.7 million cwt., down 14 percent

from last year and 6 percent below 1986. Area for harvest
is 92.1 thousand acres, 8 percent below last year and 3 percent under 1986.
The average yield is set at 214 cwt. per acre, down 6 percent from last year
and 3 percent below two years ago.

Harvest is active in all producing areas, with some areas nearly finished.
Excessive heat stressed potatoes in North Central and Southern States where
average yields are well below last year. Alabama yields are off 55 cwt from
last year, Michigan yields are down 50 cwt, and Nebraska dropped 40 cwt.
Moisture levels and rainfall are down in most central States.

Virginia is the only summer potato State with production above last year.
Harvest is nearly finished and average yields turned out well above last
year. Other Central Atlantic States have turned out good where irrigation was
used to help maintain adequate soil moisture levels. Too much moisture has
slowed progress in Texas and New Mexico. Harvest is in the early upswing with
yields and quality good. Colorado growers also reported improvements in their
summer potato prospects.

TOBACCO: U.S. all tobacco production for 1988 is forecast at 1.26 billion

pounds, 6 percent above 1987. The higher production from a year ago
is primarily the result of increased acreage. Yield is expected to average
2,034 pounds per acre, compared with 2,028 last year. Area for harvest is up
6 percent from last year.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 775 million pounds, 12 percent
more than ‘a year ago and 6 percent above the forecast a month ago. Yield per
acre, at 2189 pounds, is 60 pounds higher than Yast year's average yield.
Acres for harvest is 9 percent greater than in 1987

In North Carolina, timely rains during July in the Eastern Belt improved
prospects considerably. Other Belts received good showers the last 10 days of
the month. Harvest was 21 percent complete in the Border and Eastern Belts by
duly 31. South Carolina's harvest was in full swing the last half of July and
35 percent complete as the month ended. Showers helped upper stalk leaves to
fill out well. Georgia harvest appoached the mid-point. Virginia received
rain in July and growers are optimistic for a good crop.

Burley output is expected to total 413 million pounds in 1988, down 1
percent from 1987. The smaller production is the result of lower yields which
are only partially offset by a higher acreage. Yield is forecast to average
1848 pounds per acre, 95 pounds less than last year. Growers expect to
harvest 224 thousand acres, an increase of 4 percent from the area harvested a
year earlier.

In Kentucky, the crop improved the last three weeks of July and is
currently making rapid growth. Some problems with black shank and blue mold
were noted. Scald spots show on some leaves where heavy rains were received.
As the month ended, 35 percent was blooming and 10 percent had been topped.
In Tennessee, the crop has responded well to increased rain but pests are more
active and black shank more widespread this year.

Fire-cured production is forecast at 25.7 million pounds off 7 percent
from a year earlier. Acreage is down 1 percent. Yield is expected to average
1,864 pounds per acre compared with 1,390 pounds the previous year.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-8 NASS, USDA


APPLES, COMMERCIAL 1/

MILLION POUNDS

4.0 10.0
650.0 550.0
125.0 70.0

45.0 43.0
26.0 25.0
50.0 30.0
149.0 130.0
103.0 90.0
72.0 60.0
10.0 12.0
12.0 11.0
21.0 13.0
75.0 84.0
40.0 48.0
96.0 94.0
1,050.0 700.0
26.0 15.0
53.0 51.0
50.0 53.0
80.0 80.0
12.6 12.6
880.0 790.0
390.0 330.0
150.0 95.0
210.0 145.0
460.0 470.0
5.0 5.5
45.0 36.0
15.0 13.0
68.0 42.0
44.0 42.0
481.0 460.0
4,800.0 3,200.0
180.0 210.0
65.0 53.0
10,542.6 8,073.1

1/__IN ORCHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES. 2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED
PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1986-25.7,
1987-300.8. 3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER
FORECAST.

HOPS

PRODUCTION

STATE
1987

1,000 ACRES

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

CALIF 1/

TDAHO 2.2 2.8 1,750 1,430 5,100 3,850 4,004
OREG 6.0 7.2 1,470 1,580 8,466 8,800 11,376
WASH 20.1 22.2 1,860 1,730 35,496 37,398 38,430
us 28.3 32.2 1,768 1,671 49,062 50,048 53,810

1/ COMBINED WITH WASHINGTON TO AVOID DISCLOSURE OF INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONS.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-28 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED ANO HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED 1/

CROP : : INDICATED
1987 1988 =: (1987: 1988
1,000 ACRES
CORN : 65,706 67,519 59,167 57,083
SORGHUM : 11,804 10,453 10,604 9,011
OATS : 17,959 13,976 6,925 5,367
BARLEY : 11,046 9,691 10,027 7,401
ALL WHEAT : 65,804 65,917 55,930 52,941
WINTER > 48,781 48,980 39,317 39,693
DURUM : 3,341 3,536 3,279 2,948
OTHER SPRING : 13,682 13,401 13,334 10,300
RICE : 2,352.0 2,883.0 2,330.0 2,856.0
SOYBEANS > 57,415 58,830 56,437 56,718
PEANUTS : 1,567.4 1,680.0 1,546.4 1,648.0
ALL COTTON :  10,407.2 12,158.8 10,035.3 11,631.9
UPLAND :  10,269.3 11,961.0 9,898.7 11, 434.9
AMER-PIMA : 137.9 197.8 136.6 197.0
ALL HAY : 60,748 66,153
ALFALFA : 25,485 25,655
ALL OTHER : 35,263 40,498
ORY EDIBLE BEANS : 1,800.6 1,552.4 1,708.4 1,492.0
SUMMER POTATOES : 102.9 95.7 100.0 92.1
TOBACCO : 587.1 620.8

SUGARBEETS : 1,265.7 1,320.0 1,251.4 1,295.6
SUGARCANE FOR H

SUGAR AND SEED
HOPS

1/ HARVESTED FOR PRINCIPAL USE OF EACH CROP, I.

823.6

+, GRAIN, BEANS, NUTS, ETC.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

3 : INDICATED
1988 1/ : 1987 > 1988 1/

1,000 ACRES

RYE : 2,498 2,478 683 601

FLAXSEED : 470 290 463 238
POTATOES 3
WINTER 3 11.9 12.5 11.7 12.3
SPRING : 82.5 80.1 80.7 79.0
FALL : 1,108.0 1,083.5 1,090.3 1,058.6
SUNFLOWER 2 1,805 1,825 1,775 1,756
SWEETPOTATOES 96.7 93.9 93.3 90.6

1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-4 NASS, USDA


A SHORT HISTORY OF THE ESTIMATES
OF NUMBER OF FARMS AND LAND IN FARMS

The structure of the agricultural industry has changed dramatically over
the 125-year history of the National Agricultu al Statistics Service (NASS).
This fact is seen graphically in the following charts showing a dramatic
decline in the number of farms during a time period when the U.S. population,
fed by those farms, more than doubled.

FARM NUMBERS
1910 — Present

FARMS (Miltlons)
sor

0.0
1910 1938 1960 1985

YEAR

U.S. POPULATION
1910 ~ Present

POPULATION (Milllons)
300 ~

1910 1935 1960 1985
YEAR

Annual estimates of the number of farms and land in farms produced by NASS
make this and other vital comparisons of the farm sector possible. These
estimates are published each year in the August Crop Production Report. They
include U.S. and individual State statistics for the current year and revised
estimates for the previous year. Accompanying tables break down the U.S.
totals to show the percent in different classes based on economic size, as
well as average size (number of acres) of farms in each economic class. These
estimates do not show how many farms have gone out of business or started into
business, but only how many farms exist at a certain point each year.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-15 NASS, USDA


OLIVES: The August 1 forecast for California olives is 85.0 thousand tons, up

26 percent from last year's crop but 24 percent less than 1986. The
1988 olive crop is reported to be progressing normally. The July heat wave
has not adversely affected the crop.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Most of Florida's groves and trees are in very good condition.

Moisture has generally been adequate through July with plenty
of rain and thunderstorms. Some of the lakes, ponds, and streams have begun
refilling after a somewhat dry spring and early June. There currently is an
abundance of new growth showing on trees of all ages. New crop fruit is
making normal progress for this time of year. Harvest of valencia oranges was
completed by the end of July. Picking of grapefruit was minimal during this
month as most supplies were depleted prior to July. Caretakers have been very
active mowing, disking, and chopping cover crops that have made good growth
with the current hot and moist weather. Summer spraying and fertilizing
continue in all areas between thunderstorms.

CALIFORNIA FRUITS AND NUTS: Irrigation and weed control were active in most

crops during July. Apricot and fig harvests were
completed. Gravenstein apple picking began in the Sebastopol area. The large
Coachella Valley table grape crop harvest was completed. Table grape picking
moved to the Central Valley during July. Mildew and insect control measures
were ongoing in grape vineyards. Stonefruit harvest was active during July.
Pomegranate growers treated orchards for omnivorous leafroller. Other area
grapefruit, lemon, and Valencia orange harvests continued. Almond growers
sprayed for navel orangeworm. Almond hulls were starting to split. Pistachios
and walnuts were sizing well.

FARM NUMBERS DECLINE FROM 1987

The number of farms in the United States in 1988 is estimated at 2.16 mil-
lion, down 1 percent from the 2.18 million in 1987. Total land in farms for
1988 is 999 million acres, down fractionally from 1987. This is the first
year that land in farms has been below a billion acres.

Since the number of farms has declined at a faster rate than land in farms,
the average size of farms has increased from 461 acres in 1987 to 463 acres in
19

The proportion of farms with sales less than $10,000 decreased from 1987,
with the sharpest decrease in the under $2,500 sales class. The proportions
in the two highest sales classes are the largest since the series began in
1985, Farms with sales less than $10,000 account for more than half of all
farms, but less than 12 percent of land in farms. In contrast, farms with
sales greater than $100,000 account for less than 15 percent of all farms, but
over half of the total farm land. The average size of farms decreased from
$250 to 1988 for every economic class except those with sales greater than

250,000.

CORN PRODUCTION AND ESTIMATES - A HISTORY

The United States produces about 40 percent of the world's corn. Corn has
accounted for about 25 percent of all acreage planted to principal crops in
recent years. The major uses of corn in the U.S. are livestock feed, food
Products, sweeteners, alcohoJ-ethanol production, and seed. Approximately 80
percent of domestic use is for livestock and poultry feed.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture began crop and livestock estimates at
the time of the War between the States to help farmers better judge the value
of their production. The National Agricultural Statistics Service has records
of acreage of corn harvested, yield, and production by States dating back to
1866. Most of the corn for grain harvested that year was south of the Great
Lakes States and east of the Mississippi River.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-13 NASS, USDA



WINTER WHEAT

YIELD PRODUCTION

STATE : IND : :
1987: 1988: 1986 : 1987 : 1988
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA : 170 220 31.0 38.0 5,720 5,270 8,360
ARIZ 1/: 44 35 95.0 100.0 4.512 43180 3,500
ARK : 840 1,050 41.0 51.0 33,415 34,440 53,550
CALIF =: 480 440 76.0 83.0 45,000 36,480 36,520
COLO : 2,500 2,350 37.5 34.0 92,800 93,750 79,900
DEL oW/: 48 60 42.0 45.0 1,530 2,016 2,700
FLA 1/: 60 55 30.0 33.0 3,100 1,800 1,815
GA : 460 475 31.0 43.0 15,400 14,260 20,425
IDAHO: 800 790 75.0 68.0 51,850 60,000 53,720
ILL : 950 1,220 59.0 55.0 36,080 56,050 67,100
IND : 600 700 58.0 49.0 30, 100 34,800 34,300
IOWA 1/: 30 3538.0 = 30.0 1,680 1,140 1,050
KANS : 9,900 9,400 37.0 34.0 336,600 366,300 319,600
KY : 330 380 49.0 51.0 85910 16,170 19,380
tA Of: 170 270 «31.0 = 41.0 7,350 5,270 11,070
MD oOW/: 165 170 49.0 $1.0 6,815 8,085 8,670
MICH : 400 610 48.0 40.0 30,600 19,200 24,400
MINN 1/ : 90 44 33.0 21.0 4,290 2,970 924
MISS : 350 480 36.0 45.0 6,200 12,600 21,600
MO : 770 1,550 46.0 50.0 18,810 35,420 77,500
MONT : 2,200 2,100 36.0 19.0 64,000 79,200 39,900
NEBR : 1,950 2,000 44.0 39.0 76,000 85,800 78,000
NEV 1/ 7 7 90.0 90.0 810 630 630
NJ /: 27 26 45.0 45.0 1,290 1,215 1,170
N MEX 1/ : 340 320. 32.0 25.0 10,120 10,880 8,000
NY Wt 80 90 47.0 47.0 7,595 3,760 44230
NC : 440 480 41.0 47.0 15,180 18,040 22,560
N DAK 1/ : 185 140 32.0~—-17.0 13,920 5,920 2,380
OHIO : 800 920 58.0 50.0 48,300 46,400 46,000
OKLA : 4,800 4,800 27.0 36.0 150,800 129,600 172,800
OREG : 750 660 66.0 70.0 53,940 49,500 46,200
PA o/s. 185 170 43.0 44.0 95680 7,955 7,480
sc Wf: 275 300 38.0 45.0 7,500 10,450 13,500
S DAK : 1,620 1,350 34.0 16.0 57,600 55,080 21,600
TENN : 350 430 41.0 49.0 10,725 14,350 21,070
TEX : 3,600 3,100 28.0 28.0 120,000 100,800 86,800
UTAH 1/ : 170 152 43.0 37.0 8,100 7,310 5,624
VA : 215 210 45.0 54.0 6,970 93675 11,340
WASH > 1,825 1,750 57.0 62.0 102,900 104,025 108,500
WVA V/: 1 9 45.0 46.0 396 495 414
WIS 1/: 60 120 54.0 39.0 7,410 3,240 4,680
PN 270 225 31.0 26.0 7,500 8,370 5,850
US : 39,317 39,693 39.8 39.2 1,521,498 1,562,896 1,554,812

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD
AUGUST 1988 A-15 NASS, USDA


PEANUTS FOR NUTS

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

STATE
1987

0 POUNDS

UNDS

ALA 238.0 2,115 2,800 494,940 465,300 666,400
FLA 87.0 2,600 2,700 233,160 215,800 234,900
GA 690.0 2,500 2,800 1,632,575 1,575,000 1,932,000
N MEX 13.0 2,700 2,700 28,700 33,480 35,100
nec 153.0 2,650 3,100 440,440 392,200 474,300
OKLA 105.0 2,270 2,100 184,500 222,460 220,500
sc 14.0 2,400 2,400 25,530 31,200 33,600
TEX 250.0 1,750 1,750 385,000 441,000 437,500
VA 98.0 2,700 3,100 275,900 243,000 303,800
us 1,648.0 2,341 2,632 3,700,745 3,619,440 4,338,100

- 000 ACRES 1,000 CWT

ARK : 1,010.0 1,170.0

53,025 58,500

CALIF 2 367.0 420.0 26,057 29,820

LA 3 420.0 521.0 19,110 23,185
MISS H 198.0 270.0 10,098
MO : 66.0 77.0 3,564
TEX 269.0 398.0 15,871
2,330.0 2,85 127,725

RICE PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

YEAR : LONG GRAIN : MEDIUM GRAIN SHORT GRAIN

: 1,000 CuT
1986 : 96,773 32,239 4,344 133,356
1987 : 88,912 34,996 3,817 127,725
1988 : 38,053 3,011 152,556

Vv L F ARE BASED ON A FIVE-YEAR
AVERAGE OF CLASS PERCENTAGES. THE CLASS PERCENTAGES ARE ADJUSTED AS DATA
BECOME AVAILABLE THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-17 NASS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF AUGUST 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield
Surveys taken about August 1. The yield surveys include mailed reports from
farmers for all crops and actual field observations and measurements for corn,
soybeans, cotton and wheat. Farmers provided appraisals of crop conditions
and probable yield information for crops on their farms and for their
localities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot observations, counts
and measurements in a probability sample. These surveys are subject to
sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common to al? surveys. More
importantly, the production forecasts are subject to change due to future
weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured currently but
directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report, the “Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by
expressing the deviations between the August 1 production forecasts and the
final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1968-87 20-year period; the square root of this
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current
forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the August 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 8.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3
that the current production forecast of 4,479 million bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 8.4 percent or approximately
376 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
that fhe difference will not exceed 14.5 percent or approximately 650 million
ushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the August 1 forecast and the fina) estimate. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the August 1 forecast and the final
estimate:during the past 10 years have averaged 398 million bushels, ranging
from 7 million to 1,062 million bushels. The August 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 4 times and above 6 times. This does not imply that the
August 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

RELIABILITY OF AUGUST 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

10-YEAR RECORD OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
290% CONFIDENCE AND FINAL ESTIMATE

LEVEL

UNIT
BELOW: ABOVE

FEED GRAINS 1/
CORN FOR GRAIN
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN
OATS
BARLEY
ALL WHEAT

WINTER

NOONMwWLoOwsRS

DURUM
OTHER SPRING
RICE
SOYBEANS FOR
- BEANS
COTTON BALES

Ne Penna wwmene

1 ‘OR: GRAIN, IM FOR G .
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

BARLEY.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-3 NASS, USDA


Soybean planting got off to a good start and was as much as two weeks
ahead of normal until dry weather conditions slowed or halted field activity
in early June. Crop condition was mostly fair to poor through July. In many
areas, plants are shorter than normal and there are fewer pods per plant. As
of July 31, 41 percent of the soybeans had started setting pods compared to 54
percent in 1987 and an average of 34 percent.

Yields are expected to be below 1987 levels except in most Southern and
Atlantic States. North Dakota, Minnesota, and South Dakota had dramatic yield
reductions from last year dropping 19.5, 15.0, and 14.5 bushels per acre,
respectively. Significant yield reductions were also recorded in Iowa, down
13.5 bushels; Indiana, 11 bushels; Illinois, 10 bushels; Qhio, 9 bushels; and
Missouri, 7 bushels per acre from a year ago. Southeastern States with yield
increases from 1987 include Alabama, Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina,
Georgia, and Tennessee, up 4.5, 4.0, 2.0, 1.5, 1.0, and 1.0 bushels per acre,
respectively.

Yields decreased from last year in 19 States; increased in 8; and remained
unchanged in 2 States.

PEANUTS: Production is forecast at 4.34 billion pounds, up 20 percent from

last year and 17 percent above 1986. Harvested area is estimated at
1.65 million acres, up 7 percent from 1987. Yield is expected to average
2,632 pounds per acre, up 291 pounds from 1987 and 225 pounds above 1986.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina) is expected to total 2.87 billion pounds, up 25 percent from
1987. Growers expect to harvest 1.03 million acres, 9 percent above last
year. Yield for the 4-State area is expected to average 2,786 pounds per
acre, 368 pounds above last year. Growing conditions have been generally
favorable in the area with frequent scattered showers during the month of July
being beneficial to the crop.

The Virginia-North Carolina crop is forecast at 778 million pounds, up 22
percent from Yast year. Area for harvest is expected to total 251 thousand
acres, up 5 percent from 1987. The crop has been in good condition all season
in the two-State area.

The Southwest crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas) is expected to total
693 million pounds, slightly less than the previous year. Area harvested is
expected to reach 368 thousand acres, up 2 percent from last year. Yields are
expected to average 1,883 pounds per acre, 40 pounds below last year. Growing
conditions thus far in 1988 have been favorable for the crop in Texas, but
prolonged dry weather in portions of Oklahoma have reduced yield expectations.

ALL HAY: Production is forecast at 131 million tons, a decline of 12 percent

from last year. The change is a result of sharply lower yields
which more than offset an increase in hay acreage. With drought widespread in
many major hay areas, growers utilized acreage released from various programs
to offset low yields. Area for harvest, totaling 66.2 million acres, is up 9
percent from 1987 and will be the highest acreage cut for hay since 1965. The
forecast average yield of 1.97 tons per acre compares with 2.46 tons per acre
produced a year ago. If this yield is realized, it will be the lowest average
yield since 1966.

ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES: United States production is forecast at 69.5

million tons, off 18 percent from last year.
The total area cut and to be cut, at 25.7 million acres, exceeds last year's
area harvested for alfalfa hay by 1? percent. Yield is expected to average
2.71 tons per acre, down 0.61 ton from the 1987 average yield.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-6 NASS, USDA


TOBACCO BY STATES

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

STATE : > IND: :
: 1987 : 1988 : 1987: 1988: 1986 : 1987 : 1988
ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
CONN 1,860 1,509 -1,545 3,062 2,716 2,874
FLA 6,200 2,465 2,450 133303 133804 153190
GA 35,000 2,255 2,200 67,890 72,160 77,000
IND 5,600 2,050 1,830 12,095 11,070 10,248
KY 153,600 2,056 1,950 314,940 304,845 299,490
MD 1/ 10,000 1,140 1,280 27,120 13,338 12,800
MASS 520 1,256 1,396 622 653 726
Mo 2,100 2,070 1,700 4,389 3,519 3,570
NC 245,500 2,075 2,167 444,790 466,592 532,050
OHIO 8,220 1,639 1,400 13,574 12,044 11,504
PA 10,000 1,882 1,883 21,830 20,700 18,825
sc 44,000 2,240 2,100 75,480 945080 92400
TENN 49,440 1,766 1,737 82,821 87,291 85,886
vA 435730 1,950 2,094 73,524 76,900 915583
WeVA 1,900 1,440 15250 2,640 2,592 2,375
WIS 3,100 1,993 1,894 11,860 8,370 5,870
ust 620,770 2,028 2,034 1,163,940 1,190,674 1,262,391

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

STATE 3 2 IND
: 1987 : 1988
1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS

CALIF : 275.0 212.0 27.7 27.0 4,832 5,956 5,724
COLO : 37.0 38.5 21.7 21.0 889 803 809
IDAHO : 162.0 166.0 26.4 24.5 4,112 4,277 4,067
MICH : 142.0 147.0 20.5 19.0 2,288 2,911 2,793
MINN : 310.0 330.0 20.0 15.0 5,194 6,200 4,950
MONT : 48.9 49.0 22.2 21.5 1,016 1,086 1,054
NEBR : 60.2 62.6 18.3 20.5 1,387 1,102 1,283
N MEX : «2 . 10.0 20.0 ‘ZA 2 8
N DAK : 161.3 172.0 19.6 15.0 2,932 3,161 2,580
OHIO : 16.2 14,8 16.6 16.5 309 269 244
OREG : 13.7 14.0 30.8 30.0 374 422 420
TEX : 31.5 33.0 19.7 21.0 829 621 693
wo 56.3 21.1 19.5 1,000 1,127 1,098
us 1,295.6 22.3 19.9 25,162 27,937 25,723

1/ RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR SPRING PLANTED BEETS OVER-
WINTERED IN CALIF. 2/ NOT ESTIMATED.

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

AREA PRODUCTION

1,000 ACRES 1,000 TONS
FLA : 417.0 420.0° 32.3 33.0 13,446 13,469 13,860
HAW : 86.5 88.0 94.7 96.5 8,587 8,195 8,492
LA > 285.0 300.0 22.7 26.0 7,371 6,469 7,800
TEX : 35.1 33.2 30.9 29.0 907 1,085 963
us : 823.6 841.2 35.5 37.0 30,311 29,218 31,115
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

AUGUST 1988 A-26 NASS, USDA


INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1979-88 (1977=100)

PRODUCTION

H : > HAY: 3 H : 2
: ALL 1/°: FEED : AND : FOOD : SUGAR : COTTON : TOBACCO: OIL
: GRAINS : FORAGE : GRAINS : CROPS : : : CROPS

1979: «113 116 108 108 94 102 80 129
1980 : 101 97 98 121 97 79 93 99
1981 =: «(117 121 106 144 107 109 108 114
1982: «(117 122 109 138 96 85 104 121
1983: 88 67 100 Ww 93 55 75 91
1984 =: «171 116 107 129 95 91 90 106
1985 =: 117 134 106 121 97 93 79 W7
1986 : 107 123 106 107 106 68 61 107
1987 106 105 102 106 mW 103 62 106
1988 88 67 92 98 109 104 66 86

1/ INCLUDES SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS
OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with
related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Agricultural Statistics Board which consists of
commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

APPROVED: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD:
Rich D. Allen, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

Robert L. Addison, Wallace C. Evans,
Jack L. Aschwege, James R. Gibson,
David J. Aune, Craig M. Hayes,
Kevin L. Barnes, Carol C. House,
Fred S. Barrett, Clifton D. James,

(ae ro Donald M. Bay, Terry P. King,

. Robert P. Bellinghausen, Curtis E. Lund,

Thomas R. Birkett, Hugh M. McWilliams,
R. Ron Bosecker, Archie J. Olson,
dames E. Brewster, Darwin E. Ransom,
Arvin R. Budge, Melvin D. Rogers,
Chen Ning Chang, Vaughn L. Siegenthaler,
James R. Davies, James L. Smith,
Dave M. Dillard, H, James Tippett,
William N. Dowdy, Charles A. Van Lahr,
S. Radley Edwards, Talmadge G. Williams,

John D. Witzig.

SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-2 NASS, USDA


INDEX

PAGE

1
nN

NN ON OBN HO S72 COOWWOD

APPLES, COMMERCIAL .....eseeeeeeeeces
AREA PLANTED, BY STATES, 1988 .
BARLEY ccccccccereneeccece
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE .
CORN FOR GRAIN .
COTTON ..
COTTONSEED
FARMS AND LAND IN FARMS ....
GRAPES ...
HAY, ALL . eeerererraeer
ALFALFA & ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY .
HAY, ALL OTHER ...
HOPS ..
OATS .
OLIVES
PAPAYA .
PASTURE & RANGE FEED CONDITION ..
CROP MOISTURE MAPS ..
PEACHES .......005
PEANUTS FOR NUTS .
PEARS ...--.05- oe
POTATOES, SUMMER
PRUNES & PLUMS .
RELIABILITY OF FO
RICE ...eee seeveuees
RICE, BY CLASSES .
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS .
SUGARBEETS .......04.
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR & SEED
TOBACCO, BY CLASS AND TYPE
TOBACCO, BY STATES ..
US SUMMARY ..
WHEAT, ALL ...
WHEAT, BY CLASSES
WHEAT, DURUM .......
WHEAT, OTHER SPRING .
WHEAT, WINTER

CC ee fe

RONAN NNWHWtl INKS

PSPSPS SPS SOS Sr yr PS Sry

PPP PPrrryrrrrry
Cpa er fe fee
RYNNAsoS
AAWBREALABO IY IW

FAI III IIIS ISI SIICI III ITO II IIIS TOI IIIS SOTO SOOO ISIS SISO I I OSA A A
NOTICE *

*

Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports *
should be directed to Agricultural Statistics Board Publications, Room *
5829-South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250. (202) 447-4021. *

*

are available electronically as soon as possible following release
through USDA's EDI SERVICE. For more information, call or write:
Russell Forte, (202) 447-5505, OGPA, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250.

The next issue of this report will be published September 12, 1988

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PERI TET IT I IK KKK KK KK TK IK ITH KT HK KKK IIR KKK IKE TTI IR IIR KK KEE REE RIKI IIIT KI

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CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-18 NASS, USDA


JULY WEATHER SUMMARY

A series of slow moving frontal systems triggered scattered showers and
thunderstorms and eased long-term dryness over much of the eastern half of the
Nation. Drought still plagued much of northern and central Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley, however, hot, humid weather prevailed over most of the
country. The heat was abnormally severe across the northeastern and north-
central States and over much of the West. The high temperatures in the West
contributed to the unusual number of forest fires. (Prepared by the NOAA/USDA
Joint Agricultural Weather Facility.)

JULY CROP DEVELOPMENT

July began with crops still suffering from the effects of the drought
through the Great Plains, Corn Belt, Delta, Applachian States, Southeast, and
Rocky Mountain States. The drought was most pronounced in the central and
eastern Corn Belt. Early in the month, precipitation improved crops in the
central Great Plains, Delta, and Southeast, but high temperatures and the
shortage of moisture continued taking its toll on crops in the central and
eastern Corn Belt. The second week of July, moisture provided more relief
from the drought in the northern Corn Belt, central and southern Great Plains,
Delta, Appalachian States, and Southeast. Shortly after midmonth rain arrived
in the central and eastern Corn Belt, but crops showed little improvement.
The precipitation gave most crops a boost in the central and southern Great
Plains, Delta, and Southeast. As the month drew to a close, high temperatures
returned, depteting soil moisture and stressing crops in the northern Great
Plains. Much of the gain accomplished in restoring soil moisture earlier in
the month was lost as temperatures approached or exceeded the century mark in
the western Corn Belt, Great Plains, and northern Rocky Mountain States. In
the central and eastern Corn Belt, crops responded to additional moisture but
it may be too late to help some crops.

During July, corn was mostly fair to poor. However, condition was mostly
poor to fair in the central and eastern Corn Belt. The hot, dry weather
forced corn through the silking stage much faster than normal but curbed
growth and ear formation. On July 31, silking was 90 percent finished,
compared with 94 percent in 1987 and 79 percent normally. Nineteen percent of
the acreage had ears in the dough stage of beyond, but lagged 4 points behind
normal. Harvest was underway in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Texas.

Soybeans were mostly fair during July. The crop responded to moisture,
especially near the end of the month and in the central and eastern Corn
Belt. Dryness and high temperatures caused problems in the northern Great
Plains as the month ended. On July 31, 76 percent of the acreage had bloomed
and 41 percent was setting pods. Normally 72 percent would be blooming and 34
percent would be setting pods. In some major producing States insects
compounded the effects of the drought.

Sorghum was 44 percent headed, 11 points slower than in 1987 but 3 points
faster than normal. Twenty-eight percent of the acreage turned color,
compared with 31 percent in 1987 and 32 percent normally. Harvest was ending
in most southern areas of Texas. Harvest was underway in some southeastern
States.

The hot, humid weather was well suited to cotton development and growth,
especially in the Delta, Southeast, and southern Great Plains. Cotton
improved steadily, ending the month mostly good to fair. During the month,
cotton progressed well in California and Arizona. In California and Texas,
some cotton aborted squares because of hot weather stress. Cotton squaring
ended the month 7 points above the 62 percent average. Five percent of the
acreage had bolls open, just slightly above normal. Bolls were opening in
Alabama, California, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. Harvest
began the second week of July in Texas.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-2 NASS, USDA


South Carolina's forecast of 360 million pounds is down 5 percent from
July 1 forecast. The lower prospects has been caused by a combination of
extensive hail damage in the Ridge and Piedmont and drought condition upstate.

Dry conditions have also lowered Colorado, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania
peach prospects from the July 1 forecast, while West Virginia prospects have
improved.

PAPAYAS: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is forecast at 6.50 million

pounds in August, 39 percent more than August 1987. Output is
expected to peak in September at 7.00 million pounds, then drop to 6.50
mit jon pounds in October. November production is forecast at 6.40 million
pounds.

duly fresh utilization is estimated at 5.50 million pounds, 15 percent
more than June and 14 percent more than last July. Total fresh sales for the
January-July period were I percent higher than the same 7-month period a year
ago. Weather conditions during July continued favorable toward fruit
development. Major producing orchards experienced a mixture of light rains
and sunshine.

Crop area in July totaled 4,360 acres, 2 percent less than June but 10
percent more than last July. Harvested area, at 2,380 acres, was 1 percent
lower than June but 2 percent higher than July 1987.

PEARS: The production forecast of 818 thousand tons is up 2 percent from July
1 but 13 percent less than a year ago.

Bartlett pear production in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast
at 505 thousand tons, unchanged from last month but 12 percent less than last
year. The California crop remains in good condition. About half the crop has
been harvested statewide and harvest is nearing completion in the Sacramento
River District. Fruit size has varied because of the July heat. The North
Coast area has some poor quality fruit because of hail and frost damage.
Harvest of the Washington crop is expected to begin in mid-August.

Pears other than Bartletts are forecast at 276 thousand tons, up 6 percent
from Juty 1 but 16 percent less than last year. Harvest is in full swing in
California. Fruit sizes are slightly smaller than normal but quality is very
good. In Oregon, the crop is in excellent condition in the Hood River
District. However, the crop is behind normal development in the Medford
District because of the cool spring and early summer. Fruit sizes are smaller
than normal in Washington because of cool temperatures. Harvest is expected
to start in early September.

Michigan's pear crop is doing nicely, despite the drought. Fruit is of
good size and quality. Harvest will begin in mid-August.

GRAPES: The production forecast for all grapes in the United States is 5.51

millions tons, 5 percent above both last year and the 1986 crop. The
California all grape forceast is 4.98 million tons, 7 percent above last year
and 4 more than 1986. The California raisin type grape forecast as of August
1 is set at 2.25 million tons, up 5 percent from the July forecast of 2.15
millions tons. If realized, this will be a 2 percent increase from the 1987
production and 10 percent higher than 1986. Despite California's second
drought year in as many years, the raisin grape crop is in good condition.
The average cluster count is the highest since 1985 but clusters are expected
to be lighter. Smaller berry size is also anticipated. Many growers have
been scaled back on their water allocations and a number have switched to very
costly pumping of well water. Reservoirs were holding low levels of water
going into this growing season which has contributed to the tight water
supplies. Some vineyards showed signs of water stress, especially after the
hot temperatures of mid-July. There are approximately 50,000 dried tons of
Thompson seedless grapes enrolled in the 1988 Raisin Administrative Committee
Raisin Diversion Program.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 B-11 NASS, USDA


PEACHES

PRODUCTION

ALA 2/
ARK 2/ :
CALIF-FREESTONE Bs 49

1
1.4 2
1
1

9
ie)
0
6
2
3
0
1
0
4
4
2
5
1
1
5
4
4
0
4
6
6
8
5
5
vy)
0
3
9
0
2

noo
ONNSIS NET
Nok

z
3
ny

wo

a
=

Noon

SHOSFOOOUNABAN SAG
Now

woo

nwo
Bom
w
aom
UaNoansaanenson Gro
w
Gon

(i)
Q
0
0
4
1
o
8
oO
5
5
0
0
0
9
0
i)
0
0
6
GO
QO
0
0
0
0
0
oO
0
oO
i}
0

PODNDOOCDOOUUDOOOWS BONBDSOSOVANGUD

Pras

COOMOMDODDOTOWSS UND OIAOUUNBWOKBNSS
Bw

~
o
»
°

TOTAL ABOVE 1,395.4 1,471.8 1,587.8

CLINGSTONE 3/
CALIF 933.0 957.0 940.0

ALL
us 2,328.4 2,428.8 2,527.8

17° INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (MILLION POUNDS):

UNITED STATES, EXCLUDING CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE PEACHES, 1986-29.0, 1987~72.6.

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

3/ CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE IS OVER THE SCALE TONNAGE AND INCLUDES CULLS AND

CANNERY DIVERSIONS (MILLION POUNDS) 1986-59.5, 1987-55.0.

OLIVES

CALIF 111,500 67,500

CROP PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-29 NASS, USDA


DEL o1/

MICH 1/

NEBR 1/

NEV W/o:
NJ W/o:
NMEX 1/
NC We:

OKLA 1/

Sc Wo:
TEX V/

WIS) 1/

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION,
AUGUST 1988

IND
1988

1,000 ACRES

22
300
220

52
820
120

nv

89

50
870

2,100

75

33

15

u

40

2,900

25
220

60

13
850

30
142

14
280
190

30
850

85

14

72

45
710

1,250

60

31

9
a3]

38

1,900

20
200

55

15
500

18
128

82
560

: IND :
1987 : 1988 :
BUSHELS
99.0 110.0
51.0 65.0
66.0 64.0
62.0 62.0
75.0 65.0
40.0 33.0
67.0 63.0
67.0 68.0
55.0 40.0
57.0 25.0
45.0 22.0
36.0 34.0
90.0 90.0
60.0 62.0
70.0 55.0
62.0 65.0
48.0 23.0
30.0 41.0
70.0 75.0
57.0 66.0
49.0 52.0
40.0 20.0
40.0 30.0
83.0 78.0
66.0 71.0
55.0 56.0
54.0 40.0
70.0 65.0
52.6 38.9

1,620
175,950
1,260
20,805
3,900
588
35,910
1,750
11,552
3,960
45,000
4,845
10,880

610,522

IND
1988

1,000 BUSHELS

2,178
15,300
14,520

3,224
61,500

4,800

737

5,963

2,750
49,590
94,500

2,700

2,970

900
770
2,480
139,200
750
15,400
3,420
637
34,000

1,200
11,786

5,148
35,475

4,752
10,360

527,010

NASS, USDA

1,540
18,200
12,160

1,860
55,250

2,805

882

4,896

1,800
17,750
27,500

2,040

2,790

558
605

2,470

43,700

820
15,000
3,630
780
10,000
540

9,984

5,822
31,360

3,600

9,360

287,702

AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,


DURUM WHEAT

IND IND
1987 1988 : 1987 : 1988 : 1986 3 1987 1988
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 7,000 BUSHELS

ARIZ : 45 50 85.0 94.0 4,176 3,825 4,700
CALIF : 57 59 90.0 95.0 6,525 5,130 5,605
MINN 3 29 41 42.0 21.0 1,326 1,218 861
MONT H 190 230 28.0 11.0 4,320 5,320 2,530
N DAK : 2,850 2,500 26.0 16.0 80,000 74,100 40,000
S DAK 3 108 68 28.0 13.0 1,560 3,024 884
us : 3,279 2,948 28.2 18.5 97,907 92,617 54,580

AREA HARVESTED

STATE : : IND : IND: 2 IND

$ 1987 : 1988 : 1987 1988 : 1986 : 1987 1988

3 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
coLo : 55 51 66.0 70.0 3,630 3,630 3,570
IDAHO : 340 380 75.0 62.0 29,900 25,500 23,560
MINN 2 2,400 2,000 41.0 22.0 98,050 98,400 44,000
MONT : 2,300 1,500 29.0 12.0 70,200 66,700 18,000
NEV : 14 12 75.0 70.0 910 1,050 840
N DAK H 6,100 4,600 31.0 17.0 198,400 189,100 78,200
OREG : 60 95 57.0 60.0 4,465 3,420 5,700
S_DAK H 1,800 1,300 27.0 14.0 49,500 48,600 18,200
UTAH : 29 23 57.0 56.0 1,650 1,653 1,288
WASH 3 190 310 54.0 57.0 13,950 10,260 17,670
WIS : 28 10 33.0 24.0 630 924 240
WYO H 18 19 25.0 22.0 945 450 418
US : 13,334 10,300 33.7 20.6 472,230 449,687 211,686

WINTER

SOFT
RED WHITE RED

1,000 BUSHELS

1986 ,017,831 292,450 211,217 451,417 97,907 20,813 2,091,635
1987 018,561 347,742 196,593 430,578 92,617 19,109 2,105,200
1988 2 893,881 461,925 199,006 188,382 54,580 23,304 1,821,078

1/ WHEAT CLASS ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON VARIETY ACREAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED AT
5-YEAR INTERVALS FOR ALL WHEAT PRODUCING STATES. THE 5-YEAR VARIETAL SURVEY
DATA ARE ADJUSTED AS OTHER VARIETY SURVEY INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

2/ INDICATED AUGUST 1, 1988.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
AUGUST 1988 A-16 NASS, USDA