Cr Pr 2-2 (7-00)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released July 12, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Wheat Production Down 3 Percent from 1999

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.59 billion bushels. This is down 2 percent from last month and down 7 percent

from 1999. The U.S. yield is forecast at 44.9 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last month.

Hard Red Winter, at 887 million bushels, is down 6 percent from a month ago. White Winter is up for the second

consecutive month and now totals 235 million bushels. Soft Red Winter is up 4 percent from the last forecast, at

467 million bushels.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 128 million bushels, up 29 percent from 1999. The U.S. yield is forecast at

32.2 bushels per acre, 4.4 bushels more than last year.

Other Spring wheat production is forecast at 526 million bushels, up 5 percent from 1999. The U.S. yield is forecast

at 34.9 bushels per acre, 0.8 bushels higher than last year. Of this total, 470 million is Hard Red Spring wheat, up

5 percent from last season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 2 NASS, USDA

All oranges production forecast for 1999-00 is 13.0 million tons, up less than 1 percent from last month’s forecast and

33 percent above last season’s final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 231 million boxes (10.4 million tons), up

less than 1 percent from the June forecast. If realized, it will be the second largest utilized crop and 24 percent higher

than the 186 million boxes (8.37 million tons) utilized last season. Florida’s early and midseason variety forecast is

final at 134 million boxes (6.03 million tons), 20 percent higher than last season. Their Valencia forecast, at

97.0 million boxes (4.37 million tons), is 1 percent above last month’s forecast and 31 percent higher than last season’s

final utilization. The Valencia harvest is wrapping up later than normal. Crews are trying to finish harvest as soon as

possible. Several plants are receiving fruit for processing and limited amounts of fruit are being packed for fresh use.

California orange production is forecast at 67.0 million boxes (2.51 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast. 

If realized, it will be 86 percent larger than last season’s freeze-damaged crop. Harvest of the Navel orange crop was

virtually complete by late June, but a few late varieties are still available for harvest. The Valencia harvest is active in

all citrus growing areas. Approximately 10 percent has been harvested. Arizona’s orange production is increased to

1.10 million boxes (42,000 tons), 4 percent lower than last season’s utilization. The Texas forecast of 1.70 million

boxes (73,000 tons) is carried forward from the previous forecast.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast remains unchanged at 1.55 gallons of 42.0 degree

Brix concentrate per box. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.48 gallons per box as reported by the Florida

Citrus Processors Association. The late season (Valencia) orange yield forecast continues at 1.67 gallons per box. This

will be the lowest yield for Valencia oranges since the 1995-96 season. Last season’s yield was a record high

1.75 gallons per box.

This report was approved on July 12, 2000.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Shirley R. Watkins

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Almonds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Apricots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Barley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Citrus Fruits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Grapes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Oats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Peaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Tobacco ...................................................................................... 9

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Wheat, Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Wheat, Head Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Wheat, by Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Wheat, Other Spring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Wheat, Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 4 NASS, USDA

Oats: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1999 2000 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL 1

AR 1

CA

ID

IL

IA

KS

MD 1

MI

MN

MT

NE

NY

ND

OH

OR

PA

SD

TX

WV 1

WI

Oth Sts 2

US

20

11

30

25

60

175

70

5

75

300

70

75

70

330

100

20

145

200

110

2

300

260

2,453

30

20

60

170

50

70

330

65

70

60

350

80

20

145

240

150

280

282

2,472

44.0

91.0

85.0

68.0

71.0

65.0

47.0

51.0

65.0

59.0

46.0

62.0

68.0

51.0

70.0

100.0

55.0

64.0

44.0

48.0

62.0

59.9

59.6

75.0

65.0

73.0

68.0

44.0

66.0

65.0

40.0

45.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

105.0

55.0

60.0

43.0

68.0

62.0

61.2

816

720

2,250

2,250

3,920

10,915

2,700

350

4,800

19,530

3,240

5,320

6,510

25,200

6,500

3,850

8,480

20,100

6,890

200

18,300

13,140

165,981

880

1,001

2,550

1,700

4,260

11,375

3,290

255

4,875

17,700

3,220

4,650

4,760

16,830

7,000

2,000

7,975

12,800

4,840

96

18,600

15,561

146,218

2,250

1,300

4,380

11,560

2,200

4,620

21,450

2,600

3,150

3,600

21,700

5,120

2,100

7,975

14,400

6,450

19,040

17,485

151,380 1 Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2 Other States include CO, GA, IN, ME, MO, NC, OK, SC, UT, WA, and WY.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 5 NASS, USDA

Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1999 2000 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AZ

CA

CO

DE

ID

MD

MN

MT

ND

OK 1

OR

PA

SC 1

SD

TX 1

UT

VA

WA

WY

Oth

 Sts 2 3

US

62

125

86

26

690

50

180

1,150

1,240

3

135

70

2

74

10

83

60

490

85

137

4,758

36

95

95

27

730

50

250

1,050

1,680

140

70

105

85

65

490

100

167

5,235

114.0

64.0

105.0

84.0

78.0

80.0

47.0

50.0

48.0

39.0

51.0

71.0

60.0

48.0

35.0

82.0

82.0

59.0

86.0

60.8

59.2

110.0

65.0

100.0

81.0

76.0

84.0

56.0

42.0

52.0

55.0

70.0

51.0

78.0

88.0

65.0

82.0

59.6

58.7

6,160

7,500

9,430

1,800

59,280

3,456

22,825

57,600

106,150

235

8,060

5,025

141

4,560

215

7,055

4,270

33,800

7,140

7,423

352,125

7,068

8,000

9,030

2,184

53,820

4,000

8,460

57,500

59,520

117

6,885

4,970

120

3,552

350

6,806

4,920

28,910

7,310

8,331

281,853

3,960

6,175

9,500

2,187

55,480

4,200

14,000

44,100

87,360

7,700

4,900

5,355

6,630

5,720

31,850

8,200

9,958

307,275 1 Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2 For 1998 and 1999, Other States include KS, KY, MI, NE, NV, NJ, NC, and WI. 3 For 2000, Other States include KS, KY, ME, MI, NE, NV, NJ, NY, NC, OH, and WI.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 6 NASS, USDA

Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1999 and Forecasted July 1, 2000

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1999 2000 1999

2000

1999 2000

Jun 1 Jul 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AR

CA

CO

DE

GA

ID

IL

IN

KS

KY

MD

MI

MS

MO

MT

NE

NY

NC

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WY

Oth

 Sts 1

US

920

370

2,400

70

225

710

1,010

510

9,200

410

200

600

165

920

970

1,800

125

580

1,030

4,300

630

190

220

1,260

340

3,400

240

1,670

185

922

35,572

1,110

365

2,350

63

240

730

910

510

9,300

420

205

500

195

1,000

1,350

1,750

140

550

1,110

4,300

730

195

185

1,280

350

2,500

205

1,800

175

883

35,401

56.0

78.0

43.0

57.0

43.0

76.0

60.0

66.0

47.0

60.0

60.0

69.0

50.0

48.0

38.0

48.0

65.0

49.0

70.0

35.0

47.0

54.0

43.0

47.0

54.0

36.0

57.0

58.0

33.0

47.0

47.8

54.0

82.0

40.0

63.0

50.0

80.0

55.0

62.0

42.0

55.0

62.0

66.0

50.0

51.0

35.0

42.0

59.0

52.0

72.0

37.0

60.0

54.0

49.0

44.0

50.0

31.0

62.0

69.0

28.0

44.2

46.7

56.0

82.0

30.0

63.0

52.0

82.0

56.0

66.0

39.0

58.0

63.0

67.0

50.0

52.0

35.0

38.0

56.0

50.0

72.0

34.0

63.0

55.0

49.0

44.0

52.0

29.0

60.0

69.0

25.0

46.1

44.9

51,520

28,860

103,200

3,990

9,675

53,960

60,600

33,660

432,400

24,600

12,000

41,400

8,250

44,160

36,860

86,400

8,125

28,420

72,100

150,500

29,610

10,260

9,460

59,220

18,360

122,400

13,680

96,860

6,105

43,354

1,699,989

62,160

29,930

70,500

3,969

12,480

59,860

50,960

33,660

362,700

24,360

12,915

33,500

9,750

52,000

47,250

66,500

7,840

27,500

79,920

146,200

45,990

10,725

9,065

56,320

18,200

72,500

12,300

124,200

4,375

40,747

1,588,376 1 Other States include AL, AZ, FL, IA, LA, MN, NV, NJ, NM, ND, UT, WV, and WI. Individual state level estimates will be published in the 

" Small Grains 2000 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 7 NASS, USDA

Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1999 and Forecasted July 1, 2000

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1999 2000 1999

2000

1999 2000

Jun 1 Jul 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AZ

CA

MT

ND

Oth

 Sts 1

US

75

85

350

3,000

59

3,569

85

97

540

3,250

14

3,986

97.0

105.0

27.0

24.0

28.3

27.8

95.0

95.0

95.0

95.0

30.0

29.0

29.4

32.2

7,275

8,925

9,450

72,000

1,672

99,322

8,075

9,215

16,200

94,250

412

128,152 1 Other States include MN and SD. Individual state level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2000 Summary".

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

1999 2000 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

ID

MN

MT

ND

OR

SD

WA

Oth

 Sts 1

US

640

1,950

4,000

5,600

153

1,710

620

95

14,768

570

2,100

3,050

6,800

125

1,700

620

93

15,058

79.0

40.0

27.0

30.0

33.0

35.0

44.0

67.3

34.1

80.0

40.0

26.0

32.0

56.0

33.0

49.0

65.4

34.9

39,270

78,720

108,000

211,200

4,560

59,200

20,925

6,594

528,469

50,560

78,000

108,000

168,000

5,049

59,850

27,280

6,393

503,132

45,600

84,000

79,300

217,600

7,000

56,100

30,380

6,081

526,061 1 Other States include CO, NV, UT, WI, and WY. Individual state level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2000 Summary".

Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1998-99

and Forecast July 1, 2000 1

Year

Winter Spring

Hard Total

Red

Soft

Red White HardRed White Durum

1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

1998

1999

2000

1,179,452

1,054,996

886,763

442,677

453,421

466,921

258,604

191,572

234,692

486,370

447,931

470,276

42,099

55,201

55,785

138,119

99,322

128,152

2,547,321

2,302,443

2,242,589 1 Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the

previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Washington Wheat Variety Survey indicates winter wheat

is 91 percent White.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 8 NASS, USDA

Winter Wheat: Head Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 12 winter wheat estimating states

during this year. Randomly selected plots in winter wheat fields are visited monthly from May through harvest to obtain

specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived from actual field counts.

Winter Wheat: Heads per Square Foot,

Selected States, 1996-2000

State and Month 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1

Number Number Number Number Number

CO July

 Final

ID July

 Final

IL July

 Final

KS July

 Final

MO July

 Final

MT July

 Final

NE July

 Final

OH July

 Final

OK July

 Final

OR July

 Final

TX July

 Final

WA July

 Final

33.5

33.5

40.2

40.2

35.5

35.6

42.8

43.3

29.3

28.7

42.9

42.6

43.1

43.6

32.5

32.5

32.2

32.3

38.1

37.9

41.5

41.3

56.7

56.6

48.1

48.1

53.8

53.8

30.9

32.3

48.4

47.9

53.6

53.5

52.8

53.2

42.9

42.3

32.8

32.9

40.3

39.3

51.1

51.2

51.3

51.3

43.6

43.6

37.2

38.8

56.4

56.7

55.4

55.1

39.9

40.1

39.6

39.7

38.2

37.7

42.1

43.4

45.0

45.0

59.7

59.6

49.4

49.4

47.0

47.0

37.0

36.3

59.8

57.9

57.0

57.3

40.2

40.1

29.3

29.2

40.7

40.7

35.1

35.0

48.0

55.2

55.0

46.5

49.9

41.3

57.5

59.5

40.2

29.3

31.4

40.6

 1 Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains 2000 Summary" in September.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 9 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,

State, and United States, 1999 and Forecasted July 1, 2000

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured

 Type 11, Old Belts

 NC

 VA

 US

 Type 12, Eastern NC

 Belt

 NC

 Type 13, NC Border &

 SC Belt

 NC

 SC

 US

 Type 14, GA-FL Belt

 FL

 GA

 US

 Total 11-14

55,000

26,000

81,000

119,000

26,000

39,000

65,000

5,800

33,000

38,800

303,800

45,000

17,000

62,000

102,000

21,000

34,000

55,000

4,900

30,000

34,900

253,900

2,400

2,420

2,406

2,100

2,100

2,000

2,040

2,640

1,940

2,045

2,162

2,400

2,350

2,386

2,450

2,250

2,250

2,250

2,500

2,150

2,199

2,357

132,000

62,920

194,920

249,900

54,600

78,000

132,600

15,312

64,020

79,332

656,752

108,000

39,950

147,950

249,900

47,250

76,500

123,750

12,250

64,500

76,750

598,350
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 10 NASS, USDA

Peaches: Total Production by Type, State, and United States,

1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000

State

Total Production

1998 1999 2000

Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds

AL

AR

CA

 All

 Clingstone

 Freestone

CO

CT

GA

ID

IL

IN

KS 1

KY

LA

MD

MA

MI

MO

NJ

NY

NC

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

TN

TX

UT

VA

WA

WV

US

16.0

12.5

1,726.0

1,045.0

681.0

20.0

2.3

70.0

9.0

15.0

3.8

0.5

1.8

1.4

10.5

1.8

43.0

9.0

70.0

10.0

25.0

6.8

20.0

8.0

65.0

140.0

3.2

24.0

7.4

14.0

52.0

12.7

2,400.7

20.0

12.0

1,810.0

1,059.0

751.0

3.0

2.2

110.0

8.0

19.0

2.9

0.8

1.8

0.8

8.8

2.0

23.0

10.5

70.0

14.0

28.0

8.7

15.0

7.0

75.0

160.0

3.1

13.0

6.2

15.0

51.0

12.6

2,513.4

17.0

18.0

1,960.0

1,120.0

840.0

21.0

2.2

105.0

9.0

19.0

2.6

3.5

1.5

9.0

2.1

43.0

9.5

70.0

11.7

27.0

7.5

15.0

8.0

50.0

150.0

2.0

21.0

11.0

10.0

55.0

7.5

2,668.1 1 Estimates discontinued in 2000.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 11 NASS, USDA

Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop, State,

and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000

Crop and State

Total Production

1998 1999 2000

Tons Tons Tons

Grapes Table Type

 CA

Grapes Wine Type

 CA

Grapes Raisin Type 1

 CA

All Grapes

 CA

Apricots

 CA

 UT 2

 WA

 US

643,000

2,570,000

2,077,000

5,290,000

113,000

190

5,300

118,490

757,000

2,662,000

2,117,000

5,536,000

85,000

5,500

90,500

800,000

3,200,000

2,700,000

6,700,000

95,000

400

6,500

101,900

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Almonds (Shelled Basis) 3

 CA 520,000 830,000 640,000

 1 Fresh equivalent of dried and not dried. 2 No significant commercial production in 1999 due to freeze damage. 3 Utilized production.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1999-2000

Month

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested 1999 2000

1999 2000 1999 2000

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

May

Jun

3,760

3,410

3,080

2,575

2,155

2,025

1,660

1,585

3,365

3,215

4,785

4,280
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 12 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1997-98, 1998-99 and Forecasted July 1, 2000 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless

 FL 5

 Colored Seedless

 FL 6

 Other

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL 5 6

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 7

 CA 4 7

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus

 FL

350

44,000

140,000

1,350

185,700

650

25,000

104,000

175

129,825

1,000

69,000

244,000

1,525

315,525

2,250

18,300

30,600

650

800

8,000

49,550

4,800

63,150

600

2,400

5,200

8,200

2,600

21,000

23,600

2,850

40

550

21,000

112,000

1,250

134,800

600

15,000

74,000

180

89,780

1,150

36,000

186,000

1,430

224,580

1,800

17,800

28,700

550

750

7,500

47,050

6,100

61,400

950

1,500

4,950

7,400

3,450

16,200

19,650

2,550

80

600

40,000

134,000

1,500

176,100

500

27,000

97,000

200

124,700

1,100

67,000

231,000

1,700

300,800

1,950

20,900

31,800

600

500

8,000

53,300

5,950

67,750

850

2,100

7,000

9,950

3,100

20,000

23,100

2,200

110

13

1,650

6,300

57

8,020

25

938

4,680

7

5,650

38

2,588

10,980

64

13,670

101

777

1,301

28

27

268

2,106

192

2,593

23

90

247

360

99

798

897

128

2

21

787

5,040

53

5,901

22

563

3,330

8

3,923

43

1,350

8,370

61

9,824

81

757

1,220

23

25

251

2,000

244

2,520

36

56

235

327

131

616

747

115

4

23

1,500

6,030

64

7,617

19

1,013

4,365

9

5,406

42

2,513

10,395

73

13,023

88

888

1,352

26

17

268

2,266

238

2,789

32

79

333

444

118

760

878

99

5 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus &

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of

tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5 Excludes White Seedless economic abandonment of 5,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 6 Excludes Colored Seedless economic abandonment of 1,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 7 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 13 NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes,

11 Major States, 1999-2000

State

Potato Types 1

Reds Whites Russets

1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent

CO

ID

ME

MI

MN

NY

ND

OR

PA

WA

WI

Total

4

4

3

24

18

2

3

8

5

5

4

3

25

19

4

2

10

5

4

8

65

77

14

100

39

14

100

10

29

23

10

6

59

82

13

100

37

13

100

15

29

23

92

92

31

20

62

43

84

87

63

72

85

94

37

15

62

44

83

83

61

72 1 Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s) constituting less than 1 percent of State’s total.

Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes,

by State and Total, 1999-2000 1

State

1999 Crop 2000 Crop

Entered for

Certification Certified PercentCertified

Entered for

Certification

Acres Acres Percent Acres

AK

CA

CO

ID

ME

MI 2

MN

MT

NE

NY

ND

OR

PA

SD

UT

WA

WI

Total

200

1,350

14,833

43,500

16,062

2,600

13,400

10,200

7,250

1,100

22,677

2,594

156

1,400

60

2,250

10,500

150,132

135

1,278

14,094

43,424

16,541

2,486

10,323

10,042

6,588

1,122

20,737

2,232

245

893

60

2,309

10,509

143,018

68

95

95

100

103

96

77

98

91

102

91

86

157

64

100

103

100

95

100

1,000

16,831

50,500

14,636

2,600

11,000

11,777

5,000

1,100

20,963

2,100

245

958

62

2,300

10,500

151,672 1 Data supplied by State seed certification officials. 2 2000 data not available. Estimates carried forward from last year.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 14 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 1999-2000

Seasonal

Group and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Production

1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter 1

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring 1

 AL 2

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC 3

 TX

 Total

Summer

 AL 2

 CA

 CO

 DE

 IL

 IA 4

 KS 5

 MD

 MO

 NE 6

 NJ

 NM

 NC 3

 TX

 VA

 Total

8.5

9.6

18.1

1.7

10.0

19.0

28.8

21.5

7.3

17.0

10.3

86.8

3.5

6.7

7.6

4.3

4.9

1.1

4.8

8.0

4.9

2.6

4.3

1.0

8.6

6.5

68.8

9.0

8.2

17.2

11.0

18.8

25.0

17.5

7.5

17.5

9.8

82.1

5.1

6.5

8.1

4.8

5.5

3.0

4.8

6.2

2.6

3.3

8.4

6.5

64.8

8.5

9.3

17.8

1.6

9.6

19.0

28.0

21.0

7.0

16.5

9.8

84.5

2.8

6.7

7.4

4.3

4.7

0.8

4.7

6.2

4.5

2.5

4.3

1.0

8.0

6.0

63.9

9.0

8.0

17.0

11.0

18.8

24.0

17.0

7.0

17.0

9.3

80.1

4.9

6.5

7.9

4.7

5.3

2.9

4.7

5.9

2.5

3.3

7.8

6.3

62.7

260

200

229

175

315

400

315

330

270

200

235

300

220

360

320

250

350

225

240

295

360

250

290

110

370

175

295

320

230

278

290

355

291

300

270

200

240

281

195

350

340

250

300

340

240

240

220

350

375

200

289

2,210

1,860

4,070

280

3,024

7,600

8,820

6,930

1,890

3,300

2,303

25,327

616

2,412

2,368

1,075

1,645

180

1,128

1,829

1,620

625

1,247

110

2,960

1,050

18,865

2,880

1,840

4,720

3,190

6,674

6,990

5,100

1,890

3,400

2,232

22,486

956

2,275

2,686

1,175

1,590

986

1,128

1,416

550

1,155

2,925

1,260

18,102

See footnotes at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 15 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 1999-2000 (continued)

Seasonal

Group and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Production

1999 2000 1999 2000 7 1999 2000 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Fall 8

 CA

 CO

 ID

 10 SW Co

 Other ID

 IN

 ME

 MA

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE 6

 NV

 NM

 NY

 ND

 OH

 OR

 Malheur

 Other OR

 PA

 RI

 SD

 UT

 WA

 WI

 WY 4

 Total

US

9.0

77.2

395.0

26.0

369.0

5.2

65.0

3.0

48.0

70.0

11.0

21.6

6.5

6.6

26.0

121.0

4.8

56.0

10.5

45.5

14.5

0.6

3.5

2.0

170.0

86.0

0.5

1,203.0

1,376.7

8.5

75.8

415.0

28.0

387.0

4.2

64.0

2.9

49.0

66.0

12.0

25.0

6.5

6.8

22.0

124.0

4.2

57.0

10.5

46.5

13.5

0.5

4.5

1.5

175.0

86.0

1,223.9

1,388.0

9.0

76.9

393.0

26.0

367.0

4.9

62.5

2.9

47.5

53.0

10.9

21.2

6.5

6.6

25.5

110.0

4.7

55.5

10.5

45.0

14.0

0.6

3.4

2.0

170.0

85.0

0.5

1,166.1

1,332.3

8.5

75.6

413.0

28.0

385.0

4.0

63.0

2.9

47.5

60.0

11.8

24.5

6.5

6.8

21.0

115.0

4.1

56.5

10.5

46.0

13.0

0.5

4.2

1.5

175.0

85.0

1,199.9

1,359.7

445

335

339

470

330

270

285

255

315

340

305

420

440

380

265

240

210

505

440

520

220

225

290

290

560

400

295

369

359

4,005

25,762

133,330

12,220

121,110

1,323

17,813

740

14,963

18,020

3,325

8,904

2,860

2,508

6,758

26,400

987

28,020

4,620

23,400

3,080

135

986

580

95,200

34,000

148

429,847

478,109 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2 Spring estimates included with summer in 2000. 3 Summer estimates included with spring in 2000. 4 Estimates discontinued in 2000. 5 Estimates began in 2000. 6 Summer estimates included with fall in 2000. 7 Forecasted. 8 The forecast of fall potato production will be released November 9, 2000.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 16 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1999-2000

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

1999 2000 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,223.0

77,431.0

4,670.0

600.0

3,581.0

1,582.0

9,288.0

62,814.0

43,431.0

4,035.0

15,348.0

1,076.0

387.0

60.8

1,534.5

4.6

275.0

73,780.0

3,553.0

14,873.5

14,584.0

289.5

1,560.6

6.1

2,023.0

281.6

182.0

1,376.7

18.1

86.8

68.8

1,203.0

93.8

5,702.0

79,579.0

4,472.0

450.0

3,270.0

1,327.0

8,805.0

62,946.0

43,349.0

4,050.0

15,547.0

1,503.0

593.0

54.0

1,495.0

4.5

224.0

74,501.0

2,866.0

15,552.0

15,350.0

202.0

1,560.9

1,767.0

1,388.0

17.2

82.1

64.8

1,223.9

96.1

4,758.0

70,537.0

6,062.0

63,160.0

23,985.0

39,175.0

2,453.0

540.0

3,562.0

383.0

8,544.0

320.0

53,909.0

35,572.0

3,569.0

14,768.0

1,044.0

382.0

58.8

1,436.0

4.4

262.0

72,476.0

3,441.0

13,424.9

13,138.0

286.9

1,527.3

993.3

647.2

4.4

1,877.0

263.6

174.5

6.4

0.4

34.3

106.3

1,332.3

17.8

84.5

63.9

1,166.1

24.4

83.1

0.5

5,235.0

73,088.0

62,181.0

23,767.0

38,414.0

2,472.0

3,245.0

309.0

8,110.0

54,445.0

35,401.0

3,986.0

15,058.0

1,459.0

575.0

52.4

1,467.5

4.4

209.0

73,474.0

2,775.0

1,526.6

1,020.4

493.8

1,652.5

36.4

1,359.7

17.0

80.1

62.7

1,199.9

93.3

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop

year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 17 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1999-2000

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

1999 2000 1999 2000

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

59.2

133.8

15.9

2.52

3.50

1.92

59.6

33.2

5,908

28.7

69.7

11.6

42.7

47.8

27.8

34.1

1,306

20.6

816

2,667

1,155

1,545

36.5

1,262

607

595

1,128

21.9

35.5

1,997

1,364

1,770

1,908

1,368

1,640

46,000

1,881

71

359

229

300

295

369

101

147

58.7

61.2

41.2

44.9

32.2

34.9

278

281

289

281,853

9,437,337

96,169

159,077

83,924

75,153

146,218

17,910

210,458

10,993

595,166

3,716

2,302,443

1,699,989

99,322

503,132

1,363,680

6,354

7,880

48,010

3,829,490

5,080

404,715

2,642,908

4,341,862

16,968.0

16,293.7

674.3

33,420

35,299

1,292,692

60

33,230

5,030

2,387

658

10,500

16,100

64,456

7,537

478,109

4,070

25,327

18,865

429,847

2,454

12,234

6,800

307,275

151,380

2,242,589

1,588,376

128,152

526,061

4,720

22,486

18,102

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop

year. 2

 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 18 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1998-2000

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

1998 1999 2000

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lb

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,593

2

897

13,670

128

360

101

11,646.4

118.5

21,000.0

5,820.0

90.0

39,900.0

2,400.7

970.1

108.0

25.6

520,000

15.5

146,400

188,000

227.0

1,159

2,520

4

747

9,824

115

327

81

10,582.6

90.5

24,500.0

6,232.4

145.0

42,400.0

2,513.4

1,020.5

178.0

23.3

830,000

38.0

406,100

123,000

283.0

1,188

2,789

5

878

13,023

99

444

88

101.9

2,668.1

200.0

640,000

1,231 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop

year. 2 Production years are 1997-98, 1998-99, and 1999-00.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 19 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1999-2000

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

1999 2000 1999 2000

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,113,700

31,335,550

1,889,900

242,810

1,449,190

640,220

3,758,760

25,420,200

17,576,090

1,632,920

6,211,180

435,450

156,620

24,610

621,000

1,860

111,290

29,858,030

1,437,860

6,019,160

5,902,000

117,160

631,560

2,470

818,690

113,960

73,650

557,140

7,320

35,130

27,840

486,840

37,960

2,307,540

32,204,830

1,809,770

182,110

1,323,340

537,020

3,563,300

25,473,620

17,542,910

1,638,990

6,291,720

608,250

239,980

21,850

605,010

1,820

90,650

30,149,810

1,159,840

6,293,740

6,211,990

81,750

631,680

715,090

561,710

6,960

33,230

26,220

495,300

38,890

1,925,520

28,545,620

2,453,230

25,560,220

9,706,490

15,853,730

992,700

218,530

1,441,510

155,000

3,457,670

129,500

21,816,430

14,395,630

1,444,340

5,976,460

422,500

154,590

23,800

581,130

1,780

106,030

29,330,310

1,392,540

5,432,920

5,316,820

116,110

618,080

401,980

261,900

1,780

759,600

106,680

70,620

2,590

140

13,860

43,020

539,170

7,200

34,200

25,860

471,910

9,870

33,630

200

2,118,550

29,577,980

25,164,030

9,618,270

15,545,760

1,000,390

1,313,220

125,050

3,282,040

22,033,350

14,326,430

1,613,090

6,093,820

590,440

232,700

21,210

593,880

1,780

84,580

29,734,190

1,123,010

617,800

412,950

199,850

668,750

14,730

550,260

6,880

32,420

25,370

485,590

37,760

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop

year. 2

 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 20 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1999-2000

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

1999 2000 1999 2000

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.19

8.40

35.56

5.65

7.84

4.30

2.14

1.86

6.62

1.80

4.37

26.03

2.87

3.21

1.87

2.29

1.46

1.29

0.92

2.99

1.29

1.73

2.45

1.41

0.68

0.67

1.26

49.05

79.66

2.24

1.53

1.98

2.14

1.53

1.84

51.56

2.11

0.08

40.22

25.63

33.59

33.09

41.32

0.11

16.50

3.16

2.20

2.77

3.02

2.16

2.35

31.12

31.46

32.36

6,136,620

239,719,400

87,243,050

144,312,230

76,134,570

68,177,650

2,122,350

406,190

9,546,210

279,240

15,117,910

3,371,100

62,662,230

46,266,120

2,703,100

13,693,010

618,550

5,763,800

200,160

21,780

1,737,030

2,300

183,580

71,928,170

1,969,440

3,694,350

3,547,540

146,810

30,318,110

32,022,710

586,360

2,720

1,507,290

228,160

108,270

29,850

4,760

7,300

29,240

3,420

21,686,660

184,610

1,148,810

855,700

19,497,530

1,110

554,920

3,080

6,690,120

2,197,270

61,033,270

43,228,510

3,487,730

14,317,030

214,100

1,019,950

821,090

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop

year. 2

 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 21 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1998-2000

(Metric Units)

Crop

Production

1998 1999 2000

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,352,330

1,810

813,740

12,401,220

116,120

326,590

91,630

5,282,720

107,490

9,530

5,279,770

81,650

18,100

1,088,940

880,100

97,980

23,220

235,870

14,060

66,410

85,280

205,930

5,790

2,286,110

3,630

677,670

8,912,180

104,330

296,650

73,480

4,800,190

82,100

11,110

5,653,970

131,540

19,230

1,140,060

925,740

161,480

21,140

376,480

34,470

184,200

55,790

256,730

5,940

2,530,140

4,540

796,510

11,814,270

89,810

402,790

79,830

1,210,230

181,440

290,300

6,150 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop

year. 2 Production years are 1997-98, 1998-99, and 1999-00.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 22 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 23 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 24 NASS, USDA

June Weather Summary

Frequent, often heavy showers soaked areas from the southern and eastern Plains into the Midwest and Northeast,

maintaining adequate to locally excessive soil moisture for summer crop development. The wet conditions slowed final

winter wheat harvesting on the central and southern Plains, and caused some harvest delays in the Ohio Valley. 

Although cool, wet conditions significantly eased long-term drought in the southwestern Corn Belt, dry, occasionally

hot weather brought drought intensification and stress to dryland crops on the central and northern High Plains. In the

South, soil moisture remained generally adequate from the Delta westward, although a late-month drying trend depleted

topsoil moisture across southern Texas. Mid- to late-month showers in the Southeast aided pastures and summer crops,

but provided little relief from the long-term drought. Meanwhile in the Southwest, the early arrival of seasonal showers

eased irrigation requirements and curbed the wildfire threat. In California, favorably warm, dry weather followed earlymonth showers. Much of the interior Northwest remained dry throughout the month, promoting winter wheat

maturation but reducing soil moisture for spring-sown grains.

Monthly temperatures averaged near normal in the Northwest but generally ranged from 1 to 5 degrees F above normal

in California and the Southwest. More than 100 daily-record highs were set before June 10, many of them in the

Southwest before heat briefly overspread the Plains and upper Midwest. A short-lived but intense heat wave produced

numerous monthly and all-time records in California on June 14. East of the Rockies, the only large area of abovenormal June temperatures (up to 3 degrees F above normal) encompassed the middle and southern Atlantic regions. In

contrast, monthly readings averaged 1 to 4 degrees F below normal in much of the Plains and Midwest. Corn Belt

temperature remained at or below 90 degrees F throughout the month, except for a brief period in early June across

western areas, favoring corn and soybean development.

General Crop Comments

In early June, severe storms moved across the Corn Belt but most of the precipitation was beneficial for crop

development. Corn and soybeans emerged well ahead of normal, and by June 4, ninety-seven percent of the corn and

80 percent of the soybeans were emerged. However, emergence was slowed by saturated soils in Wisconsin, Michigan,

and Ohio, while moisture shortages hindered emergence and growth in parts of the western Corn Belt.

Triple-digit temperatures accelerated ripening of winter wheat in the central and northern Great Plains before mid-June. 

In Kansas, 57 percent of the wheat was ripe on June 11, compared with the 5-year average of 11 percent. In the Corn

Belt, 90 percent of the wheat was headed in Michigan, 42 percent was turning color in Ohio, and 28 percent was ripe in

Illinois. In Idaho and Washington, about one-fourth of the acreage entered the heading stage during the week ended

June 11.

The winter wheat harvest progressed one week ahead of normal, as harvest rapidly progressed in the southern Great

Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Producers in Oklahoma and Arkansas harvested more than one-third of the

acreage during the week ended June 11. Harvest also accelerated in California, Missouri, and North Carolina. Harvest

began in Kansas, where growers harvested 9 percent of the acreage, and along the Ohio River Valley in the southern

Corn Belt. Conditions deteriorated in the central and northern Great Plains due to hot weather and increasing moisture

shortages.

Cotton planting and development progressed at a normal pace through mid-June, with 88 percent planted and 11 percent

squaring on June 11. Development was most advanced in Arizona and California, but acreage squaring accelerated in

the lower Mississippi Valley due to warm weather. Increasing moisture shortages stressed cotton in most areas of the

Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, rain provided adequate

moisture in scattered parts of northern Texas.

Spring wheat and barley developed well ahead of normal, as timely showers aided emergence and stimulated growth

across the Great Plains early in the month. In the Pacific Northwest, development continued even though

cooler-than-normal weather prevailed. On June 11, spring wheat was 7 percent headed, barley was 12 percent headed,

and oat acreage was 21 percent headed. Above-normal temperatures aided oat development in Iowa and Nebraska,

where nearly two-thirds of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage.

Heavy rain boosted soil moisture supplies and improved crop conditions in the Corn Belt and parts of the southern

Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley near mid-month. Later in the month, strong thunderstorms provided

additional moisture for parts of the Corn Belt and Great Plains. However, crops in parts of the northern and eastern

Corn Belt deteriorated due to excessive soil moisture, while parts of the western and southern Corn Belt remained too

dry.

As the end of June approached, winter wheat harvest rapidly progressed in the Great Plains and accelerated in the Corn

Belt. Harvest progressed to 52 percent complete on June 25 and, at 80 percent, the Kansas wheat harvest was four times

the normal pace for this date. Harvest rapidly advanced in Illinois and Missouri, even though rain temporarily halted

progress. The harvest gained momentum in Nebraska and began in Ohio and Colorado. Mostly dry conditions aided

late-month harvest progress in Arkansas, California, and Texas.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 25 NASS, USDA

Mostly light-to-moderate showers, and some isolated heavy rainfall, eased moisture shortages and boosted crop

conditions in the Southeast near the end of June. Above-normal temperatures accelerated cotton development and by

June 25, fifty-nine percent was at or beyond the squaring stage, well ahead of last year and the 5-year average. In the

lower Mississippi Valley, cotton squaring rapidly progressed. Acreage setting bolls advanced to 11 percent, as progress

jumped 13 percentage points in Louisiana and Arizona during the week ending June 25. Below-normal temperatures

briefly slowed development in Texas.

Four percent of the corn acreage was at or beyond the silking stage on June 25, slightly ahead of last year and the 5-year

average for this date. Fields rapidly entered the silking stage in Missouri, even though temperatures averaged slightly

below normal. A few fields entered the silking stage in Illinois, Kansas, and Nebraska.

Soybean development remained nearly 1 week ahead of the 5-year average, with 95 percent of the acreage emerged and

8 percent of the crop blooming on June 25. Crop development was most advanced in the lower Mississippi Valley, with

35 and 43 percent blooming in Louisiana and Mississippi, respectively. Despite below-normal temperatures,

development accelerated in the Corn Belt, with more than 10 percent of the crop blooming in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, and Missouri. A few fields progressed to the blooming stage in the northern Great Plains.

Widespread moderate-to-heavy rain increased soil moisture supplies and aided crop conditions in the southern and

western Corn Belt late in the month. In the central and eastern Corn Belt, many fields suffered due to saturated soils

and standing water. Excessive moisture also damaged some fields in Iowa and Nebraska, while parts of both States

remained too dry. Warm, dry weather benefited corn fields in Michigan. 

Heavy rain and severe flooding damaged soybean fields in North Dakota and parts of the Corn Belt late in the month. 

In Michigan, dry weather reduced surplus moisture supplies late in the month and significantly improved crop

conditions. In other areas of the Corn Belt, especially in Missouri, much-needed rain improved conditions.

Oats: Production is estimated at 151.4 million bushels, 4 percent above last year’s 146.2 million bushels. The

estimated yield is 61.2 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels from 1999. If realized, this would be the third highest yield on

record, behind only the record yield of 65.4 bushels per acre in 1992 and the 63.6 bushels per acre produced in 1985. 

Area for harvest was unchanged from the previous estimate of 2.47 million acres.

Oat seeding progressed well ahead of normal, as dry weather aided progress in the central Great Plains and across the

northern Corn Belt during the first half of April. Planting accelerated in Ohio and Pennsylvania in late April. By

mid-May, seeding was 92 percent complete. Warm weather and timely rain aided germination in the central Corn Belt

and Great Lakes region. However, diminishing soil moisture reserves limited progress in Iowa, Minnesota, and

Nebraska during the second half of April. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, cool, wet weather hindered development. 

Seasonal temperatures and adequate moisture supplies promoted rapid germination in North Dakota, and by May 28, the

Nation’s oat acreage was 96 percent emerged. 

Development continued ahead of the 5-year average through June, even though temperatures averaged slightly

below-normal. On July 2, seventy-nine percent of the crop was headed in the 8 major oat-producing States, well ahead

of the 5-year average of 60 percent. Nearly all of the acreage was headed in Iowa and Nebraska. Almost half of the

acreage was headed in North Dakota, more than double the normal progress of 21 percent. As of July 2, seventy-four

percent of the acreage in the 8 major oat-producing States was rated good to excellent and only 6 percent was in poor or

very poor condition.

Barley: Barley production for 2000 is forecast at 307 million bushels, up 9 percent from 1999. The first forecast for

2000 indicates producers expect to average 58.7 bushels per acre, a decrease of 0.5 bushel from last year. Area

harvested, at 5.24 million acres, is 10 percent above the 4.76 million acres harvested in 1999, unchanged from the June

Acreage Report. Even though expected yields are slightly lower in 2000, the increase in harvested acres has reversed

the five-year trend of declining production. In comparing yields to the previous year, 8 States are expecting higher

yields in 2000, while 8 States are forecasting lower yields or no change from 1999. Maine, New York, and Ohio were

added to the barley estimating program in 2000.

Northern Great Plains States are mostly showing higher yields than 1999. Producers in North Dakota, the largest barley

acreage State, expect yields to average 52 bushels per acre, an increase of 4 bushels over the 1999 yield. Yields have

been helped by above average spring temperatures and adequate moisture. However, recent heavy rains and high

humidity have raised concerns for wide area disease outbreaks. Yields in the central Great Plains and Rocky Mountain

States show decreases due to below normal precipitation. Heading progress in the five major-producing States was

54 percent complete as of July 2, compared with the 5-year average of 37 percent. Condition of the crop at that time

was rated 63 percent good to excellent, equal to 1999.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 26 NASS, USDA

Winter Wheat: Acres for harvest as grain are forecast at 35.4 million, down slightly from 1999. Harvest progress in the

18 major producing States had reached 65 percent completion by July 2. This was more than 20 points ahead of both

last year and the normal pace.

Yield declines are forecast in all of the major Hard Red Wheat (HRW) States. Forecasted head counts from the

Objective Yield surveys in the six HRW States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas) are down

slightly from last month, while weight per head is down a collective 4 percent. Above average rainfall during June

caused some harvest delay in Oklahoma. Harvest has progressed rapidly in Kansas and Nebraska. 

Harvested yields were better than previously expected in the Soft Red Wheat (SRW) States. Arkansas, Georgia,

Indiana, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania now expect record highs. These States joined Ohio where a record had been

forecast a month ago. Collective head count forecasts are virtually unchanged in the SRW Objective Yield States

(Illinois, Missouri, Ohio), but average weight per head is up 8 percent from a month ago.

Combined plant populations in the Pacific Northwest Objective Yield region are at record high levels, but forecasted

head weight is still lower than normal. Idaho expects a record high yield. Yield prospects improved in Michigan, but

dimmed somewhat in New York.

Durum Wheat: Area for 2000 grain harvest is expected to total 3.99 million acres, up 12 percent from last year. 

Harvest in the California Imperial Valley finished around the middle of June, with protein levels above normal and

excellent yields reported. Excessive amounts of rain in June caused flooding in the southern half of the Red River

Valley in Minnesota. Despite this, development is ahead of normal. The major growing areas of North Dakota have

not been affected by the flooding in the Red River Valley. Soil moisture conditions are currently rated mostly adequate

with pockets of surplus in the durum growing regions.

Other Spring Wheat: Harvested area is forecast at 15.1 million acres, up 2 percent from last year. Acreage was

62 percent headed in the six major producing States, 22 points ahead of normal.

The Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington) production forecast is up slightly from a year ago. Yield increases

in all three States offset a decline in acreage in the region. After a warm spring, crop development is ahead of normal in

Idaho. The Oregon crop is mostly in fair to good condition. In Washington, the crop development is near normal and

has been aided by timely rains.

Spring wheat in the Golden Triangle of Montana is under considerable stress and very weak stands have been reported. 

Condition of the Dakota’s spring crop is mostly good to excellent. Timely rains and excellent planting conditions

enabled the South Dakota crop to get off to a great start. Development is ahead of normal in Minnesota despite flooding

in the southern portion of the Red River Valley.

Tobacco: U.S. all flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 598.4 million pounds, down 9 percent from the 1999

crop and 26 percent below 1998. Yield per acre for flue-cured is forecast at 2,357 pounds, up 195 pounds from 1999

and 153 pounds above two years ago. Yields for all flue-cured types increased from last year in Georgia, North

Carolina, and South Carolina but declined in Florida and Virginia. The decline in production is due to a 16 percent

decrease in acreage.

North Carolina’s Flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 405.2 million pounds, down 7 percent from the 1999

crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,412 pounds, up 229 pounds from 1999. This is the highest all flue-cured yield

since 1994.

Flue-cured tobacco production in South Carolina is forecast at 76.5 million pounds, down 2 percent from the 1999 crop. 

Yield per acre is forecast at 2,250 pounds, up 250 pounds from 1999. The crop is reported to be two-thirds topped and

in good condition. 

Georgia’s Flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 64.5 million pounds, up 1 percent from the 1999 crop. Yield per

acre is forecast at 2,150 pounds, up 210 pounds from 1999. Harvest is about 13 percent complete. 

Flue-cured tobacco production in Virginia is forecast at 40.0 million pounds, down 37 percent from the 1999 crop. 

Yield per acre is forecast at 2,350 pounds, down 70 pounds from the 1999 record yield of 2,420 pounds. The season

began with near ideal conditions and timely rains during June resulted in crop conditions at mostly good and excellent

levels.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 27 NASS, USDA

Florida’s Flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 12.3 million pounds, down 20 percent from the 1999 crop. Yield

per acre is forecast at 2,500 pounds, down 140 pounds from the 1999 crop. Harvest got underway during late June. 

Lower than normal yield is due to the existing drought conditions.

Peaches: The July 2000 forecast of U.S. peach production is 2.67 billion pounds, up 6 percent from 1999 and

11 percent above two years ago. All peach producing States west of the Mississippi river, with the exception of

Missouri, expect the same or increased peach production for 2000.

The California Clingstone crop is forecast at 1.12 billion pounds, unchanged from the June 1 forecast but 6 percent

above 1999. Quality of Clingstones harvested has been good, but sizing concerns have persisted in the Yuba City and

Kingsburg areas and some mildew damage was reported in the Modesto area. Overall the majority of the crop remains

in good condition.

The California Freestone crop is forecast at a record high 840.0 million pounds, unchanged from the June 1 forecast but

12 percent above 1999. The Freestone peach crop continues to progress normally with harvest active. Recent cool

weather has caused minimal delays to fruit maturity and overall crop condition remains good. 

The South Carolina peach crop is forecast at 150.0 million pounds, down 6 percent from last year but up 7 percent

from 1998. Conditions of the crop vary widely from poor to excellent throughout the State depending on local weather

conditions and availability of irrigation. Peach harvest is ahead of last year and the five-year average. Recent

widespread showers should improve the later maturing varieties. North Carolina’s peach crop, forecast at 27.0 million

pounds, is down 4 percent from last year but 8 percent above two years ago.

Georgia’s peach crop is forecast at 105.0 million pounds, down 5 percent from 1999 but up 50 percent from the 1998

freeze and hail-damaged crop. As of July 9, harvest was 70 percent complete, and 5 percent behind the five-year

average. At the end of June, the crop was rated mostly fair to good, with a significant portion rated excellent.

In New Jersey, production is forecast at 70.0 million pounds, unchanged from both 1999 and 1998. Fruit is sizing well

at the current time. Many central and north Jersey peach orchards experienced hail and storm damage during bloom,

however in south Jersey orchards reported little or no damage. Production in Pennsylvania is forecast at 50.0 million

pounds, 33 percent below last year and down 23 percent from 1998. Many producers in Pennsylvania were affected by

the hard freeze in April and hailstorms in May. A few producers did report the Plum Pox virus being a problem and

they had to remove many or all of their trees. However, it doesn’t seem to be widespread through the State. Production

in New York is forecast at 11.7 million pounds, 16 percent below 1999 but 17 percent above two years ago. Production

in Massachusetts is forecast to be 5 percent above 1999 and production in Connecticut is unchanged from last year.

Michigan’s peach crop is forecast at 43.0 million pounds, 87 percent above 1999's freeze damaged crop but unchanged

from two years ago. The Michigan peach crop has good to excellent prospects, with only slight frost damage this

spring. Fruit diameter is at 2.0 inches, slightly ahead of normal development. Peach production in Indiana and Ohio are

down 10 percent and 14 percent respectively from last year. Production is also down 10 percent in Missouri. Peach

production in Kentucky is forecast at 3.5 million pounds, up 94 percent from last year’s drought-reduced crop. Illinois’

production, at 19.0 million pounds, remains unchanged from last year. 

Production in Virginia and West Virginia are down 33 percent and 40 percent respectively from 1999, however

production is up 2 percent in Maryland. Tennessee and Alabama are both down in production from 1999. Production is

up in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. Oklahoma’s production remains unchanged from last year.

The Washington peach crop is forecast at 55.0 million pounds, 8 percent above last year and up 6 percent from 1998. 

This is the highest since 1966, when production was estimated at 67.2 million pounds. Production is also up from 1999

in Oregon, Idaho, and Utah. In Colorado, production is forecast at 21.0 million pounds. If realized, this is the highest

since 1973 when production was estimated at 28.0 million pounds.

California Grapes: California’s all grape production is forecast at a record high 6.70 million tons, up 21 percent from

last year and 27 percent above 1998. If realized, the 2000 crop will be 1 percent above the previous record of 6.65

million tons set in 1997. Wine type grapes account for 48 percent of California’s total production, raisin types account

for 40 percent, while the remaining 12 percent are table type grapes.

Table type grape production is expected to be 800,000 tons, up 6 percent from last year and 24 percent greater than

1998. Harvest was active through late June in the Coachella Valley, with good quality reported. Picking had begun in

the southern San Joaquin Valley by July 1 with Perlette and Flame Seedless the primary varieties being harvested.

Wine type variety grape production is forecast at 3.20 million tons, up 20 percent from last season’s crop and 25 percent

higher than the 1998 crop. Crop development has been excellent this spring with warm and dry weather. Maturity

levels are reported near normal for July1.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 28 NASS, USDA

California’s raisin type variety grape production is forecast at 2.70 million tons, up 28 percent from last year and

30 percent above the 1998 crop. The spring weather was dry and warm, enhancing bunch growth and development. A

high number of bunches per vine space are reported. Maturity is a few days ahead of normal. Harvest of the Thompson

Seedless variety for fresh use was active through late June in the Coachella Valley with good quality reported.

Apricots: The final forecast for the 2000 apricot crop is 101,900 tons, up 13 percent from last year’s crop but down

14 percent from 1998. California’s 2000 apricot production is forecast at 95,000 tons, up 12 percent from last year but

16 percent below 1998. California represents 93 percent of the U.S. apricot crop. Wide variation in apricot bloom

between orchards and hail storms in the southern San Joaquin Valley combined to reduce fruit count. Fruit size is

reported as normal.

Almonds: California almond production is forecast at 640 million meat pounds, based upon results of an objective

measurement survey. The expected production is down 5 percent from May’s subjective forecast and off 23 percent

from last year’s record crop. Bearing acreage is forecast at 500,000 acres. Average yield is forecast at 1,280 pounds

per acre.

The weather during the critical bloom was variable with heavy rain and cool temperatures. This resulted in an uneven

set with some varieties having a heavy set while others were very light. Warm temperatures during April helped move

the crop development 2 to 3 weeks ahead of last year’s crop and near the normal progress.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya output is estimated at 4.28 million pounds for June, 11 percent lower than May but

33 percent higher than June 1999. Area in crop totaled 2,575 acres, 16 percent lower than May and 24 percent below a

year ago. Harvested area, totaling 1,585 acres, was 5 percent lower than last month and 22 percent below last June. 

Weather conditions during June were a mix of sunshine and showers. Warm temperatures and long daylight hours were

beneficial toward orchard development and fruit maturation. Soil moisture in unirrigated orchards was adequate.

Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 2.79 million tons, virtually unchanged from the June forecast, but

11 percent above last season. The forecast of Florida grapefruit utilization is adjusted upward by less than 1 percent to

53.3 million boxes (2.27 million tons). White seedless, at 20.9 million boxes (888,000 tons), is down slightly from

June. The colored seedless forecast is increased to a record large 31.8 million boxes (1.35 million tons), a 1 percent

increase from a month ago. The white seedless forecast is 17 percent higher than last season and the colored seedless

forecast is 11 percent above the previous season. The seedy grapefruit forecast continues at 600,000 boxes

(26,000 tons), 50,000 boxes higher than last season. 

The California July 1 grapefruit forecast is 8.00 million boxes (268,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but

up 7 percent from last season. Harvest has been active, but delayed due to a high percentage of small size fruit. Crop

quality is good. Arizona’s grapefruit forecast, at 500,000 boxes (17,000 tons), is down nearly 40 percent from the

previous forecast. Growers didn’t harvest what they had initially intended due to low prices. The Texas forecast, at

5.95 million boxes (238,000 tons), is carried forward from the June forecast.

Lemons: The 1999-00 lemon forecast for United States is 878,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up

18 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 20.0 million boxes (760,000 tons), the same as the

previous forecast but 23 percent more than the previous season. In the south coastal growing region, harvest volume has

been heavy. The excellent coastal weather has provided for premium growth. Quality has been better than in recent

seasons. The Arizona lemon crop is forecast at 3.10 million boxes (118,000 tons), unchanged from the April forecast

but down 10 percent from the previous season. 

Florida Citrus: The first twenty days of June continued dry across the Florida citrus belt. Precipitation finally arrived

and continued throughout the last ten days of the month. Growers and caretakers continued to irrigate where water was

available until the daily showers and thunderstorms covered the State's citrus producing counties. In spite of the winter

and spring drought, new crop fruit in well cared for groves continues in good condition. There is spotty late bloom in

some groves that were stressed during the dry months. Harvest of Valencias continued during the first half of June. 

Most of the processors closed before the end of the month. Grapefruit movement was virtually complete by the last

week of June. There are only a few groves of Honey tangerines remaining to be harvested. Caretakers were very active
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 29 NASS, USDA

the first part of the month irrigating groves and maintaining equipment. Pesticide applications, fertilizing, hedging and

topping continue. The burning ban has been lifted in all areas now that the summer rains have arrived.

California Citrus: The Valencia orange harvest is in full swing with approximately 10 percent of the crop picked. A

few of the late variety Navel oranges remain to be harvested. New crop oranges were experiencing June drop during the

past month. Lemon picking was also active in the south coast area. Good quality was reported. Grapefruit harvest

continued and growers are concerned about small sizes.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Many fruit crops were harvested during June. Grapes for fresh use were

picked in the Coachella Valley. Thompson Seedless and Flame Seedless were the primary varieties. Harvest of Flame

Seedless and Perlette table grapes began in the southern San Joaquin Valley in late June. Grape growers were also

treating for mildew and leafhoppers. Apples were treated for codling moth. Harvest of apricots, freestone peaches,

nectarines, and plums was also active. Warmer temperatures in June enhanced maturity and the various fruits were in

good condition. Thinning of olives was active. Clingstone peach harvesting began south of the Fresno area. Quality

was good, but with small sizes. Strawberry harvest remained active.

All Potatoes: Potato farmers across the United States have planted an estimated 1.39 million acres of potatoes in all

four seasons this year, up 1 percent from last year. Area for harvest, forecast at 1.36 million acres, is up 2 percent from

a year ago. In earlier forecasts, winter production jumped 16 percent over a year ago, while spring potatoes fell

11 percent. The summer forecast places production down 1 percent from last season in comparable States. Winter and

spring plantings were down 5 percent from last year and summer acreage was off 3 percent in comparable States. The

estimate of fall planted acreage is up 1 percent from last year in comparable States.

Changes to the seasonal statistical program combines Alabama spring production with summer this year and combines

former summer production in North Carolina and Nebraska with spring and fall seasons, respectively. Iowa and

Wyoming estimates have been dropped and Kansas production has been added to the estimating program.

Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes this year is estimated at 1.22 million acres, up 1 percent on a comparable

basis. Harvest is expected from 1.20 million acres, a gain of 3 percent from a year ago. Comparability is achieved by

adding Nebraska’s summer acreage to their fall total last year and subtracting out Wyoming.

Eastern States have planted an estimated 102,900 acres this year, down 6 percent from last year. Maine’s planted

acreage is estimated at 64,000 acres, down 2 percent from last year. Massachusetts’ acreage was down 3 percent and

Rhode Island’s acreage fell 17 percent. New York’s planted acreage was down 15 percent. A cool, wet spring in most

of New England and New York delayed planting and got the crop off to a slow start. Pennsylvania’s potato acreage was

down 7 percent from a year ago. The crop is progressing well throughout the State.

Central States planted an estimated 362,900 acres of fall potatoes this year, down 1 percent from last year. Acreage in

South Dakota jumped 29 percent. Michigan and North Dakota were up 2 percent each while Wisconsin held at last

year’s planted level. Planted acreage was down 6 percent in Minnesota and Nebraska. Ohio dropped 12 percent and

Indiana fell 19 percent. The eastern Corn Belt started off cool and wet for potatoes this year with Ohio’s crop progress

about four days behind last year. Recent rains caused some flooding in Indiana. Michigan’s progress was slow and

harvest will be delayed to late July. In Wisconsin, Minnesota, and North Dakota, dry spring weather gave way to rain

in June, leaving many fields waterlogged and making conditions ripe for late blight. North Dakota potatoes were rated

poor to good. Nebraska’s diminishing summer season is combined into the larger fall season for a single estimate this

year. Percent comparisons, in the paragraph above, are based on a combination of the two crops.

Western States potato plantings were estimated at 758,100 acres this year, up 3 percent from last year. The increase in

western acreage is concentrated in the Pacific Northwest. Idaho’s plantings are up 5 percent. Washington’s acreage

rose 3 percent and Oregon’s acreage was up 2 percent. Montana increased their seed acreage by 9 percent and New

Mexico was up 3 percent. In the other direction, Colorado plantings were off 2 percent and Utah dropped 25 percent

from last year. California’s fall potato acreage slipped by 6 percent, continuing a long-term decline. Warm spring

weather allowed most of the western potato acreage to be planted ahead of schedule. Growth has been good and harvest

should start ahead of normal. Some Colorado potato fields were hit by hail in late June. Oregon’s crop looks good

statewide.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 30 NASS, USDA

Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 18.1 million cwt in 2000, with harvest coming from

62,700 acres and an average yield of 289 cwt per acre. Comparable totals may be calculated by adding last year’s

Alabama spring estimates with summer and subtracting out Iowa, Nebraska, and North Carolina’s crops from the

summer totals. On a comparable basis, summer production is down 1 percent from last year while acreage for harvest is

up 1 percent. Average yield per acre is expected to be down 5 cwt. Smaller potato crops are seen in California, down 6 

percent; Illinois, down 3 percent; Missouri, down 23 percent; New Jersey, 12 percent lower; and Texas, down

1 percent. Larger crops are emerging in Alabama, up 7 percent; Colorado, up 13 percent; Delaware and Virginia, up

9 and 20 percent, respectively. Kansas will add nearly a million cwt of potatoes to the summer mix.

Harvest is active on the DelMarVa Peninsula. Virginia growers report excellent yields from early fields. Delaware and

Maryland potatoes are being harvested. Cold, wet spring weather in New Jersey slowed the growth of potatoes. Dry

weather in southern Alabama reduced early yields while harvest is continuing and moving north. Missouri harvest is

nearly finished in southeastern counties and will start later this month in the northwest. Texas potato harvest is active. 

California harvest should begin in early July. Heavy rains early in the season delayed planting and caused some field

losses.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 31 NASS, USDA

Reliability of July 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between June 25 and July 5 to gather

information on expected yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in twelve States that accounted

for 65 percent of the 1999 winter wheat production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported

acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made

within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. In early fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in

late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. A 5-year

historical average head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads can be clipped, threshed, and

weighed. The number of heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot can then be combined to an estimate of

yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month

until the crop reaches maturity and are harvested on the final visit.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 11,000 producers representing all major production areas. 

These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for

harvest and yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide

indications of average yields as the season progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for

reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather

patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their

analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecasts.

Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a

balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions

are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 winter wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean

Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation

between the July 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the

squared percentage deviations for the 1980-1999 20-year period; the square root of the average becomes statistically the

"Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast

relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from

those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means that chances

are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 1.59 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by

more than 1.8 percent or approximately 28.6 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that

the difference will not exceed 3.2 percent or approximately 50.8 million bushels. Differences between the July 1 winter

wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 27 million bushels, ranging

from 4 million to 65 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 10 times and above 10

times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final

production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2000 32 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact

for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-2127

Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-3250

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288

Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,

Mushrooms (202) 690-0270

Keith Lacy - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 11, 2000.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color,

national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information

(braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and

Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity

provider and employer.

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