FLUE*CURED: TOBACCO

AREA HARVESTED:

CLASS AND TYPE — 7 y TT
H 1978 1 1976 ‘ 1977
' ACRES
'
otee ribet to) MIDDLE BELTS H
" ve t 179,006 185,000 160/000
vA ' 680009 705000 61000
us . t 267,000 2554000 -B21,000
TYPE 12 EASTERN NC BELT 1 xe
Nc + 229,006 203,000 178,000
TYPE 13 NC BORDER & SC BELT 1 -. .
ne ' 62,000 535000 471006
sc H 90,000 752000 694000
ve ‘ 182,000 1265000 1165000
TYPE 14 GEORGTASFLOROTA BELT ‘
ALA ' 375:
rua '
Oa 1
us ’ 899200 e2see0
TOTAL 11-14 ' 7179200 6664660 so3se7s,
CLASS AND TYPE L YIELD 1 PRODUCTION
¥ Tr. OF TROT t 7 To
3.1975 ¢ 1976 1 1977 8 1975 076 41977
t POUNDS T+000 POUNDS

CUASS by FLUE@CURED
TYPE 11 OLO AND MIDDLE BELTS

TYPE 12 EASTERN N C BELT

TYPE 13 N © BORDER & S C BELT

TYPE 16 GEORGIAsFLORDIA BELT

us
TOTAL 11-14

19710-14830
19650-14780
16693 3,816

:

: 2018S 2ei40
' -

1 29165 2,460
3 20100 © 24045
1 29127 24092
1
1
1

:

t

A

1+700
2,080 2,160
25010 1,820
2,018 1,877
1,973 1,974

1129200
4184290

1345230
1893000
3239230

19190
28.080

493.495:

3385550
1245600
463,150

4349420
1109160
153,378:
263,535:

16182
30,260

109498
397,498
371,878

905700

1649480
240,180

633
24,975

185 .
3,943 1818035: 193165257 151520378

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977

8-6

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


NECTARINES: The California nectarine forecast of 130,000 tons is up 4 percent from last month
but is 2 percent below last year. Size and quality are very good. Harvest of major
early varieties is nearing completion.

PRUNES ANO PLUMS: California prune production is forecast at 152,000 tons, unchanged from last
month, but 5 percent more than last year. Conditions are fair, although
maturity is lagging behind last year.

The plum crop in California is forecast at 140,000 tons, 4 percent above last month and 22
percent above the 1976 crop. Fruit size is excellent and quality is good.

ALMONDS: The California almond production forecast at a record 255,000 tons is up 7 percent from

last month, and is 9 percent above last year. The 1977 almond crop remains good over-
all, There are no serious water problems at this time. Some wells in the western San Joaquin
Valley are going dry, however, these growers are receiving district water.

WALNUTS: A 200,800 ton walnut crop is expected this season, 9 percent above last year. The crop
is in good condition in California. Nuts are late in developing and are smaller than
formal fn Oregon.

ORANGES: The final 1976-77 forecast is record 247.6 million boxes, 1 percent less than the June

1 forecast but 2 percent more than last season. Valencia production is expected to
total 100.6 million boxes, 3 percent less than the June 1 forecast. The change is a result of a
decline in prospects in California. The Florida Valenica crop at 74.0 million boxes is 10 percent
less than was harvested last season,

Harvest of Valencia oranges in Florida was about 94 percent complete while California har-
vest neared the 1/3 point. Arizona Valencia harvest was 95 percent complete.

Changes in U.S. orange production between the July 1 forecast and final production have averaged
1.2 million boxes over the past 10 seasons, ranging from 10,000 boxes in 1967-68 to 2.67 million
boxes in the 1969-70 season.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The Florida all orange juice yield for the 1976-77 crop

is projected at 1.07 gallons of 45 degree brix concen-
trate per box. The 1975-76 final yield was 1.29 gallons per box. The yield reduction this sea-
son is attributed to the January freeze.

CITRUS CROP HARVEST AND UTILIZATION TO JULY 1

5 1975-76 : 1976-7
cROP H “UTILE ZATION : REMAINING = UTILIZATION > REMAINING
H : : 2 FOR : t t : FOR
: FRESH ; PROCESSED : TOTAL : MARVEST FRESH : PROCESSED : TOTAL 2 HARVEST
3 “THOUSAND BOXES
ORANGES : 42,677 183,219 225,896 16,484 37 536 189,327 226,863 20,687
GRAPEFRUIT > 30,552 36,181 66,733 3,347 25,486 43,466 68,952 4,748
LEMONS > 9,585 6,192 15,777 2,043 11,215 11,770 22,985 2,515

GRAPEFRUIT: The 1976-77 grapefruit forecast of 73.7 million boxes is slightly less than the

dune 1 forecast but is 5 percent above the 1975-76 season. The decline this month
is due to a 300,000 box reduction in the Florida crop. Harvest is virtually complete in Florida
and Texas, about 80 percent complete in Arizona and is past the half way mark in California.

Changes in U.S. grapefruit production between the July 1 forecast and final production have
averaged 410,200 boxes over the past 10 seasons,ranging from 40,000 boxes in both 1970-71 and
1971-72 seasons to 830,000 boxes,in the 1968-69 season.

LEMONS: The California and Arizona lemon crop is expected to total 25.5 million boxes, 2 percent
less than was expected on June 1 but 43 percent more than the 1975~76 crop.

Harvest is progressing wel] and is about 90 percent complete. The remaining fruit is in
the south coast area of California.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT Vv

‘ PRODUCTION 1 PRODUCTION

CROP 1 BOXES 1 TON EQUIVALEN’
AND FINDICATED! UT o NDICATEO
1 1976077

EI
St 197!

STATE 1 St 1975-76 + 1976-77 + 197:
' 19000 UNITS 27 19000 UNITS
ORANGES+EARLY MID & NAVEL. 371
ARIZ art 920 730 490 35 er 30
CALIF 1 281000 = 284300274000 14050 14061 140913
FLA t 969600 984800 =: 1152000 45347 erres 5.175
TEX ary 29930 30800 49200 125 162 179
us 1 1289450 1314630 147000 54587 59696 65397
ORANGES» VALENCIA 1
ARTZ ' 4050 19950 39150 152 13 118
CALIF t 279100 24000 © 219000 19016 900 788
FLA $ 769700 = B2s600 = 74000 34652 39708 3,330
TEX ara 19610 24400 29400 68 102 102
us 1 1094460 2109750 1004850 41688 45783 4,338
ALL_ ORANGES ' .
ARIZ t 49970 24680 34950 187 100 ise
CALIF 1 859100 524300 489000 29066 19961 1,801
FLA 1 1734300 281200 = 1894000 7799 Bs154 8,505
TEX ast 49540 65200 $9600 193 264 381
us $ 2379910 2424380 2474880 100245 100479 10,735
TEMPLES: 1 .
FLA . 1 50300 59500 39800 239 248 171
GRAPEFRUIT WHITE SEEOLESS 4 .
FLA 1 254906 = 289300 © 308100 19101 19203 1,279
GRAPEFRUIT»PINK SEEDLESS '
FLA 1 119800134000 129900 489 553 548
ORAPEFRUIT. OTHER '
FLA ' 7200 79800 99200 306 332 391
ALL GRAPEFRUIT 1
ARIZ ' 20770 39080 39900 89 99 96
CALIF ' . .
DESERT_ 1 39750 49100 39900 120 131 i2s
OTHER AREAS 4 39160 30100 39100 106 104 104
TOTAL, 1 64910 79200 79900 226 235 229
FLA 1 440600 499200 529200 19896 20088 20218
TEX we 71300 104700 116500 292 428 460
us 1 619580 = 704080 = 739700 2,503 25850 35003
TANGERINES (
ARIZ aes 610 660 800 23 25 30
CALIF aes 19620 14350 19450 61 51 be
FLA 1 39100 34400 39300 1467 162 is?
us ‘ $9330 5410 5e$50 231 238 261
LEMONS 1 .
ARIZ ar 79200 20420 59000 27s 92 i90
CALIF t 229200 = 159400 = 20+800 844 585 779
us 1 295600 = 17,820 25500 19118 677 969
TANGELOS '
FLA 1 49700 50500 49800 212 248 216

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST IS COMPLETED,

2/ NET LBS PER BOX! ORANGESHCALIF & ARIZ=75,FLA=90,
TEX@651 GRAPEFRUIT@CALIF DESERT & ARTZ=649 CALIF
OTHER=674 FLA=85» TEX=803 LEMONS=76$ TANGELOS &
TEMPLES*#9Q¢ TANGERINES@ CALIP & ARIZ=755 FlLAcdS,

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA» EARLY AND MIOSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
qexase INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITI€S OF TANGERINES IN

AS «
4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECASTs

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 8-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS
fe duly 1, 1977

Day

1 Good to exeetient
[EB Poor to fair

£22 Very poor

EE) Severe drought
GM Extreme drought

AS REPORTED BY
CROP CORRESPONDENTS

# INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON- IRRIGATED PASTURES ANO
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS,

U.S, OEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, STATISTICAL REPORTING SERVICE

NEG. SRS 67-7717),

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS*
fey July 1, 1976

. Good to excellent
[EB Poor to fair

TO very poor

ED Severe drought
(EB Extreme drought

S Ge

* INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON- IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

NEG. SAS 388-76 (7)

STAYISTICAL REPORTING SERVICE

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977

A-5

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



APOLES» COMMERCT AL Vv

' PRODUCTION 1 PRODUCTION

cRoP ' POUNDS t 42 L8e EQUIVALENT

AND t TOTAL 27 tINDICATEOS TOTAL VINDICATED

STATE U 1975 ot 1976 ft 1977_t 1975 ot 1976 fF 1977

t MILCTON UNITS 19000 UNITS
ALL COMMERCIAL APPLES t

ARK 1 2365 1100 2240 536 262 824
CALIF ‘ 46000 480.0 49000 100952 119429 114667
COLO 1 10560 74.0 85.0 29500 1,762 2.024
CONN ' 4860 30.0 19143 714 1,095
OeL t 125 11.5 298 274 286
GA ae 2260 $24 S24
1O0aHO t 95.0 125.0 110.0 25262 2.976 2619
TLL t 115.0 8600 10860 29738 25048 2,571
IND ' 8R.0 25.0 6600 20095 595 1,871
Towa t 963 6.0 900 221 143 214
KANS 1 1720 1le4 18.0 405 271 429
KY ' 22.0 1460 22.0 5264 333 524
MAINE ‘ 67.0 7000 76.0 15595 19667 1,810
MD ' 8660 63.0 66.0 24048 19500 1,571
MASS ' 93.0 8900 92.0 20214 29119 24190
MICH t 70500 48000 840.0 169667 119429 12.857
MINN ' 18.5 23-5 18.0 440 560 429
Mo ! 7720 50.0 63.0 19833 19190 1,500
NK ‘ 6509 87.0 57.0 19429 19387 1,357
Nu ! 135.0 90.0 125.0 39214 29143 2,976
N MEX : ljeo 30.0 40.0 262 1s 952
NY # 1902020 820.0 860.0 245286 19,524 20,476
Nc t 315.0 265.0 290.0 75500 65310 6,905
OHTO 1 160.0 105.0 70.0 39810 26500 1,667
ORES ry 15000 17020 160.0 39571 41008 34810
PA 550.0 360.0 430.0 13,095 85571 10,238
RI ' Bel es 121 105 95
sc ' 2460 2360 $71 548 667
TENN ' 10.0 8.0 238 190 250
UTAH ' 4900 4000 19167 952 1119
vt 1 38.0 3800 905, 905 1.000
vA ' 43020 212.0 105238 59048 5,952
WASH t 2920000 2250.0 529381 53,572 54,762
wove ' 240.0 200.0 Sy714 49762 5.000
WIs t 64.0 52.0 19526 19238 1,238
us t 7949609 6939508 6,840.5 178,497 1529283 162,869

1/ IN ORCHARDS OF 106 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES,

2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE
(MILLION POUNDS)! UNITED STATES 1975429489 19766036

3/ APPLE ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH THE 1976 CROP! DATA FOR
PREVIOUS YEARS NOT AVAILABLE.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 8-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA




PEARS

CROP AND STATE

PRODUCTION 1/

t
' TOTAL 1 TOTAL 7 IND
— 1 1975 1 1976 L 1977
_ fi TONS
PEARS BARTLETT 1
CALIF t 2979000 3651000 3405000
ORES ' 799000 82000 745000
WASH ' 1339500 1405000 1354000
TOTAL 1 5091500 $879000 5494000
PEARS EXCLUDING BARTLETT t
CALIF ' 64350 84500 8,000
OREG ! 945000 1254000 95.000
WASH t 859500 954000 78+000
TOTAL 1 185,850 228,500 181000
ALL PEARS 1
CALIF t 3035350 3735500 348,000
coLo t 69000 69400 75400
CONN 1 19900 700 19900
TOAHO 1 19650 26000 19800
MICH 1 152000 62000 122000
Ny ' 204000 8 154000
OREG ' 173,000 1692000
PA 1 34400 39200
UTAK ' 45900 49600
WASH ' 2197000 213,000
us ‘ 7481200 8460700 1159900
1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTEO PRODUCTION ANO EXCESS CULLAGE
(TONS) US 1978663000 1976=20,000+
MISCELLANEOUS FRUITS AND NUTS
CROP AND STATE 1 PRODUCTION: 37
: TOTAL 1 TOTAL 7 TND
4 1975 4 1976 U 1977
' TONS
PLUMS 1
CALIF ' 1249000 1159000 140,000
PRUNES (DRIED BASIS) 1
CALIF 1 1499000 145,000 152.000
GRAPES TABLE TYPE .
CALIF 1 4342000 4064000 4009000
GRAPES WINE TYPE !
CALIF ' 103226000 1,3553000 126501000
oR ARES RAISIN TYPE DRIED 2/3/1
CAL 1 2649000 258,000
onan” RAISIN TYPE NOT ORIED |
1 985.400 9894000
anaPes RAISIN TYPE 3/ t
CALIF ' 2+205+000 2,129,000 290500000
ALL GRAPES '
Lie 3/ t 329614000 3,890,000 441005000
apatcors 1
CALIF : 1799000 1509000 140000
UTAH ' 500 29000 14800
WASH 1 30100 29800 249900
TOTAL 1 1829600 1549800 1449700
NECTARINES :
CALIF ' 111,000 133-000 130,000
ALMONDS, 1
CALIF ' 1605000 2334000 255,000
WALNUTS '
CALIF ' 198,000 1834000 200000
OREG ’ 1500 700 800
TOTAL ' 1999500 183,700 200+800

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE
(TONS)? APRICOTSs TOTAL 1975=71600% 1976=269160+
WALNUTS» TOTAL 1975=200.

2/ DRIED BASISI1 TON OF RAISINS IS FQUIVALENT TO 4440 TONS

OF FRESH GRAPES FOR 1975, AND 4,42 TONS FOR 19760

3/4 1976 DATA INCLUDES 65,000 TONS (287,000 TONS FRESH EQUIVALENT)
LAIO, BUT NOT HARVESTED DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER DAMAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977

B-9

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


WINTER: WHEAT

STATE 4 AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO 4 PROOUCTION
' ' t TNO t t + ENO 6 t 7 IND
4 1975 3 1976 t 2977 1 1975 1 976 11977’ 4 1978 4 1976 1 chad
i 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
t
ALA ! i35 125 120 240-2740 2B 3240 3,378 3,120
ARIZ 320 wz 6300 -71,0 7540 226720 89400 42536
ARK ‘ 520 710 700 30.0 3900 159600 274690 = 244500
CALIF 4 986 860 65062406200 619132 39320414600
colo tO 24200 20960 92268 2165 300400 = 474300 «= 544280
DEL 1 36 32 29° 3440 3840 19156 14085 987
FLA t 20 22 ~22 26.0 © 3000 520 660 567
on 1 135 115 i112 2740-3100 39645 35568: 3,472
IDAHO . 880 890 830 41.0 4400 369080 = 394160 34,030
TLL ' 1,730 14880 19600 3920-3900 679470 = T2915 = 700400
IND ' 15500 1,600 10265 4320-3640 649500 = S79600 «= 534.130
IOWA ot _100 85 65 34,0 3500 30400 2,975, 2,210
KANS {129100 = 119300 = 1203900 = 2540 3000 = 32400 © 9809900 3394000 3814300
Ky ‘ 352 330 270 = 340 = 4G 3840 11996 = 107230 1:0, BBO
ba 1 28 38 40 1600 3360 3040 400 14185 1,200
4D ' 156 138 123-3440 3840 3840 55304 So2ae 40182
MICH 614020 990 930 3800 3840 = hy = 3B 7ED «= 377620 324820
MINN 1 80 163 105 23.0 2660 28.0 1°80 $5238 29940
MISS ' 188 180 125 26.0 2960 31.0 41400 5.220 3,878
Mo i 1,679 15650 10550 3340 3360 3940 = 484510 © 544450 = 60450
MONT =f 35000 30080 20800 «= 33520 «= 3200 = 2740 1084000 ©= 98 860 =—_ 754600
NEBR ff 39070 24980 3050 32.0 © 3200 985240 = 944400 © 1065750
NEV 1 11 MW 70.0 6540 770 1g 520
Ny ’ 54 55 42 36,0 4200 11944 2e310 19638
NMEX 1 387 213 349 26402300 109062 41899 8.376
NY n 190 168 170-3920 3640 70610 54940 69290
NC ! 275 240 195-3160 2940 89528 69960 69045
N Oak 123 135 128 25.5 2840 39137 34780 20688
OHIO 4 14770 19650 19840 4240 4000 Thy380 66000 © 674.760
OKLA ’ 69700 69300 69800 24.0 2460 26.0 1609800 1510200 169,000
ORES + Leild 10220 19080 4800 4600 38.0 530280 $65120 414040
Pa 1 45 315 260 «3320 3000 129385 99450 7,020
sc : 155 145 105 2720 2860 49185 39625 30045
S DAK 8 770 970 680 3000 1860 239100 = -179460 165320
TENN 4 310 335 280 ©3160 = 3700 9o610 = 129398 10,080
TEX £ -$e700 49700 41600 2300 ©2240 ©2540 132e109 «= 103,400 © 1154000
UTAH 1 238 222 180 24.0 2303 2300 59712 $217 belho
vA ' 292 240 1 31.0 3260 3140 99052 74680 6,665
WASH =f 25740 21885 20700 = 49.0 © 4600 = 3540 1349260 «1324710 949 500
WVA 3 17 1s 11-3200 3200334 Se 4468 363
ws t v2 64 60 31.0 370 3 29232 26368 2280
wyo 1 250 240 240-2540 2840 224 69250 69000 5,280
us 1 $3,567 499835 484451 320d 3206 3.148 146820923 198H69074 145399029
WHEAT: PRODUCTION BY CLASSES FOR THE UNITED STATES
WINTER SPRING WHITE
YEAR v7 SOFT DURUM (WINTER & TOTAL
RED. : RED RED i SPRING)
7,000 BUSHELS
1975 1,052,837 342,496 326,432 123,362 289,706 2,134,833
1976 : 967,688 348,602 410,175 134,914 286,029 2,147,408
1977 1,015,470 334,299 396,428 86,625 210,867 2,063,689
7 TNDICATED JULY 1, T977-
CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 B-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


U.S. WHEAT
July 1 Forecast As Percent of Final Production, 1965-76

PERCENT OF FINAL

“ Winter wheat

All wheat

1980

NEG. SRS 63-77 (7)

QURUM WHEAT: Durum wheat production is forecast at 87 million bushels, 36 percent below 1976
and 30 percent under 1975 production. The sharp production decline from last year

is a result of a 34 percent decrease in acreage for harvest.

Yield is expected to average 28.5 bushels per acre. This compares with 29.4 bushels in 1976
and 26.4 bushels in 1975.

Acreage for harvest is estimated at 3.0 million acres, compared with 4.6 million acres in
1976 and 4.7 million acres in 1975.

The durum wheat crop in the northern growing areas is in generally fair to good condition
and development is averaging one to two weeks ahead of normal. In North Dakota and Minnesota,
early fields were beginning to turn while slightly less than one-fifth of the South Dakota crop
was ripening. About one-third of the Montana crop was heading on July 1. Harvest is well under-
way in Arizona under nearly ideal harvesting conditions. .

The Root Mean Square Error for the July 1 durum wheat production forecast computes to 15.3
percent. At the approximate 90 percent confidence interval, the final estimate will not be above
or below the July 1 forecast by more than 26.4 percent or 23 million bushels.

During the past 10 years changes in production from the July 1 forecast to the final esti-
mate averaged 9.3 million bushels, ranging from 2.8 million to 19.9 million bushels. The July 1
forecast was above the final estimate 5 of the 10 years by an average of 10.7 million bushels
and below 5 times by an average of nearly 7.9 million bushels.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production of spring wheat other than durum is forecast at 418 million

bushels, 6 percent below the 1976 crop but 17 percent above 1975, The re-
duced production from last year is the result of a 10 percent reduction in acreage for harvest.
Acreage for harvest is 15.0 million acres, below the 16.7 million acres in 1976 but above the
13.4 million acres in 1975. The expected yield of 27.8 bushels per acre compares with 26.7
bushels in 1976 and 26.8 bushels in 1975.

. Development of the crop is ahead of normal from Idaho to Wisconsin. The crop is mostly in
fair to good condition. Poor moisture conditions during planting in Idaho, Montana and North
Dakota have resulted in variable stands.

. In North Dakota, tate May and early June rains helped the crop but came too late to affect
tillering. Some drought damage has occurred in portions of central and southern North Dakota.
the Minnesota crop is in fair to good condition, 2 weeks ahead of normal. Some fields in
Minnesota and South Dakota were beginning to turn color by July 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY .1977 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Farmers almost finished planting grain sorghum by the end of June; a few Kansas fields were
replanted where rains washed away earlier efforts. The crop rated good to excellent. At the
beginning of July a few early fields headed in Oklahoma, Texas sorghum reached the boot stage in
the southern High Plains and harvesting began in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

At the beginning of June, growers in the 11 southern States had virtually finished planting
cotton except in Oklahoma and Texas. By the same time Texas cotton squared from the Blacklands
southward. Hail damaged some cotton in the Texas Panhandle but growers had time to replant. At
the end of June cotton rated fair to good, and development was ahead of norma). EarJy stands
squared on the Texas High Plains. Insect activity was light on the plains but increased southward.
Across the South, squaring ranged from 80 to 89 percent; boll set ranged from 13 percent in Ala-
bama to 77 percent in Georgia.

SMALL GRAIN HARVEST

The Nation's winter wheat crop was headed out by June 1 except in the northern States.
Combining was widespread throughout the South and among the major producing States. Harvest was
13 percent complete in Texas and 2 percent in Oklahoma, lagging the average in both States. As
June progressed, the harvest pace quickened, pushing ahead of last year's rate and the average.
Throughout June, locally heavy rains and hail lodged some fields on the Great Plains.

Weedy fields and downed grain slowed combining but progress remained ahead of recent years.
At the beginning of July, harvest was almost complete in southern areas; Texas growers reached
92 percent complete and Oklahoma producers 97 percent. Kansas wheat combining advanced to 55 per-
cent complete compared with 50 percent in 1976 and 60 percent average. Wet and weedy fields in
eastern Kansas delayed combining. Hot, dry weather sped the Iowa harvest to over half complete,
compared with 9 percent last year and 5 percent for average.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at a record 6,331 million bushels.

This first forecast for the 1977 season is 2 percent above the record set in
1976. If the July 1 production forecast is realized this would be the third consecutive year
that a production record has been set.

Conditions on July 1 indicate a yield per acre of 89.4 bushels, compared with 87.4 bushels
last year, 86.2 bushels in 1975 and the record of 97.1 bushels set in 1972.

Much of the Nation's corn crop was in good condition at the end of June despite lingering
drouths in many areas. Soil moisture varied from short to adequate with most of the Corn Belt
needing more rain to maintain development, which was ahead of last year and well ahead of normal.
Most fields were well beyond the proverbial knee high by the fourth of July. In the Eastern
North Central States, corn silked rapidly. The I??inois crop was 33 percent silked by July 3
compared with 2 percent last year and 6 percent average. Average plant height ranged from 30 to
64 inches, which was 6 to 25 inches higher than normal.

In the western North Central States corn also silked early, ranging from 10 to 32 percent
by July 3. Average growth reached 41 to 52 inches, almost double the normal. In Minnesota corn
is making exceptional growth. Corn height is more than double normal with some fields beginning
to tassel by the end of the month. Nebraska corn is in mostly good condition and early planted
fields are well ahead of normal. Iowa corn growth was slowed by lack of moisture, particularly
in the central area.

Drought inflicted tosses on corn in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida. In the South,
corn rated from fair to good with silking ranging from 30 to 70 percent.

The Root Mean Square Error for the July 1 corn for grain production forecast based on the
years 1953-70, 1975 and 1976 computes to 7.7 percent. Using the approximate 90 percent confidence
interval, the final estimate will not be above or below the July 1 forecast by more than 13,3
percent or 842 million bushels.

Changes between the July 1 forecast and final production estimates have averaged 283 million
bushels for the past 10 years that a July 1 corn forecast has been made. (No July 1 forecast for
1971-74). The changes ranged from 2 million to 668 million bushels. During those 10 years, the
July 1 forecast has been above the final 6 times by an average of 286 million bushels and below
4 times by an average of 278 million bushels.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


JUNE WEATHER

dune precipitation was above normal from eastern Kansas through Missouri and the Ohio and
Tennessee River Valleys to the central Appalachians. Much of Iowa and Wisconsin and a strip a-
cross the center of the Corn Belt had less than normal rainfall. Most of the Gulf Coast States
had below normal moisture--some areas totaled only a third of normal. The western U.S. was
seasonally dry although many areas recorded above normal amounts of rain. Temperatures were
cooler than normal in the Northeast, warmer in the West, and near normal elsewhere.

During the early days of June, much-needed rain fell in Minnesota and Wisconsin. The timely
moisture helped germinate Yate seeded corn and soybeans and promoted growth of the newly emerged
plants. Abundant rain continued in the central Great Plains but abated in the southern portion
allowing wheat harvest to progress. Heavy rain saturated southern Florida but only a few showers
fell on the dry corn and pastures in Alabama and Georgia. Temperatures were warm in much of the
Nation for early dune; only the Northeast was near or slightly below normal.

June's second week brought rain to thirsty crops in the major corn and wheat areas. Showers
and thunderstorms supplied an inch or more or water from central Illinois eastward to the Coast
and into New England. Hail damaged some crops but most of the areas welcomed the rains. Most of
the dry western States, from the Plateau in Nevada through the northern Rockies, had significant
showers which were of same benefit to the dry rangelands, Only light showers fell in the South-
east. (Cool weather moved into the East in the second week of June and pushed as far south as
Georgia. Portions of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia averaged 129 below normal for the
week.

In the week of mid-June, the pattern of showers and thunderstorms that had brought plentiful
moisture to the central and western Plains moved a little eastward and spread its bounty from
eastern Texas and Louisiana through Minnesota. It was not all bounty though as floods occured in
eastern Texas where some areas recorded more than 5 inches; nor was it bounty when the heavy rain
and hail damaged some fields from Texas to Minnesota. Excluded from the pattern of inch-or~more
rains were the dry areas of eastern and northern Missouri and southern Iowa. The Southeast again
received well below normal rainfall. Temperatures were generally warm in most areas, averaging
2 to 3° above normal in the. East and 6 to 9° warmer than normal in much of the West.

The last full week of June brought a frontal system from the west which spread heavy rain
from the Plains through the Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. Heavy rain inundated an area from
southern Kansas through Missouri to the St. Louis area. Some points measured 9 or more inches.
Tornadoes were reported from the Datotas to Florida; damage to property and crops was reported in
many areas. The driest portions of the South and Southeast had some severe weather but little
rain, although northern Florida fared quite well.

The last few days of June provided additional rain from the Western Corn Belt to the eastern
Ohio Valley.
ROW CROP PROGRESS

Corn Belt rains were sufficient to maintain rapid corn growth, ahead of last year's early
development and much ahead of normal. High temperatures raised transpiration rates and stressed
corn in’a narrow band from Nebraska through Ohio. Soil moisture became short in the Corn Belt by
late June. End-of-month rains markedly improved topsoil moisture, although some shortages per-
sisted and subsoil moisture is low. Corn silked rapidly and early; ranging from 10 to 33 percent
by July 1. I1linois silking was most advanced, reaching 33 percent at the beginning of July.
Normally only 6 percent of the Illinois crop is silked at that time. Average plant height ranged
from 30 to 64 inches, which was 6 to 25 inches higher than normal.

Drought and high temperatures inflicted severe losses on corn in Mississippi, Alabama,
Georgia and Florida. Elsewhere in the South, corn rated only fair to good, with silking ranging
from 30 to 70 percent.

Subnormal precipitation dried soils and slowed soybean planting throughout most of the South
during June. Late June rains improved planting conditions and also plant growth in some areas of
the Nation. Dry weather earlier in June caused uneven emergence in some areas and reduced the
effectiveness of herbicides to control weeds. However, at the beginning of July plant growth ex-
ceeded most recent years and development surpassed the normal. Blooming reached 17 to 23 percent
in some of the Corn Belt States, compared with the 3 to 10 percent normal.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


OURUM WHEAT

STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED YIELO 1 _____ PRODUCTION
v v IND t T INDI TND

t 1975 _3 1976 4 1977.3 1975 1 1976 1 1977 1975 1976 1977

1 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

1
ARIZ 1st 319 90 7500 23,925 65480
CALIF 1 15 80 28 73.0 80.0 1,095 6,400 29100
MINN 1 87 93 62 32.5 29.5 2,828 274s 2.870
MONT 1 375 295 205 27.0 29.0 109125 8558S 45715
N MEX 1/1 17 4 7000 1,190 320
N OAK ¢ 3.960 35620 24900 26.5 28.0 104.940 904500 67,500
S DAK t 243 160 132 18.0 10.0 40374 19600 2,680
Us ' 41680 4.584 30041 26.4 29.44 1235362 134,914 66,625

1/ INCLUDED IN WINTER WHEAT PRIOR TO 1976.

SPRING WHEAT OTHER THAN OURUM

STATE 4 AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO 4 PRODUCTION

1 t 1 THO t 7 T IND t ' t IND

4 A975 + 1976 4 1977 4 1975 § 1976 4 1977 + 1975 ¢ 1976 ¢t 1977

1 19000 ACRES BUSHELS: 19000 BUSHELS

'
coLo 1 20 2a 30 275 3000 29.0 sso 690 870
IDAHO 1 470 $40 370 $1.0 54.0 52.0 23,970 299160 199240
MINN ' 29709 3,800 30120 3 32.5 36.0 834700 1239500 1125320
MONT 1 49600 20040 19980 29.5 2440 409800 © 604180 474520
NEV a 9 8 ? 3900 3860 405 3120 86
N Dak 1 69130 75900 7,000 26.5 26.0 1569315 193.580 182,000
ORES 1 105 113 65 3700 37.0 44200 4y1e1 29405
S DAK 1 19952 14860 29200 1160 354136 209460 46,200
UTAH 1 “ 42 24 3160 19452 16302 936
WASH 1 320 315 195 36.0 10,880 115340 3,265
wis 1 21 29 19 3000 568 870 581
wYo 1 . 23 35 22 2520 552 67s 462
us 1 135394 16,705 15,032 26.7 358,548 4465420 418,035

RYE

STATE ot AREA HARVESTED ' YIELO 1 PRODUCTION

f t t TNO t TINO + 7 7 TND

‘ 1975 4 1976 _¢ 1977 t 2975 t 1976 | 1977 4 19:

' 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 14000 BUSHELS

'
coLo 1 4 7 5 22.0 23.0 18.0 88 161 90
OEL 1 9 9 a 22.0 2340 22.0 198 207 176
GA 1 105 10 ilo 15.0 22.0 19.0 19575 29420 24090
TLL 1 iy 15 15 22.0 21.0 2140 374 315 315
IND ' 9 10 9 26.0 2: 26.0 236 230 236
IOWA 1 5 5 4 24.0 25.0 120 140 100
KANS t 15 1s 20 2140 22.0 315 255 440
Ky ’ 4 3 2 25.0 26.0 100 60 52
MD 1 ll 33 ll 26.0 27.0 266 297 297
MICH iY 28 26 30 25,0 24.0 700 676 720
MINN ' a9 105 92-2540 25.0 20225 20068 24300
MO ' ly 10 it 22.0 27,0 2a2 210 297
NEAR t 38 60 5s 20.0 21.0 19100 12020 1+158
NJ ' v 8 10 25.0 25.0 175 240 250
NY t 12 12 13 30.0 2940 360 360 ary
NC ' 20 20 22 18.0 1940 360 380 418
N DAK ' 119 Md 80 25.0 24.0 29975 25831 14920
OHIO ' 7 7 8 28.0 27.0 196 196 216
OKLA ' 36 36 34 = 1940 18.0 + 684 684 612
OREG 1 M1 9 10 27.0 25.0 297 225 250
Pa 16 4 Ty 29.0 28.0 464 364 392
sc ' 33 30 29 18.0 20.0 594 510 580
S$ DAK 1 102 99 120 23,0 25.0 24346 19485 34000
TENN 1 2 2 2 17.0 23.0 34 Se 46
TEX 1 40 27 25 1920 18.0 760 378 450
va ' 4 wu 16 23.0 24.0 322 322 384
WASH 1 lo 8 8 26.0 1940 260 176 152
WIs 1 1s 12 le 21,0 23.0 315 252 322
wYo ' 8 9 6 19.0 176 171 182
us t 8s B06 785, 2207 17987516667 174787

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


The Root Mean Square Error for the July 1 all wheat production forecast computes to 3.8 per-
cent. At the approximate 90 percent confidence interval, the final estimate will not be above
or below the July 1 forecast by more than 6.6 percent or 135 million bushels. Changes between the
July 1 forecast and final estimate have averaged 55 million bushels during the past decade - rang-
ing from 3 million to 129 million bushels. In 6 of the ten years, the July 1 forecast was above
the final estimate by an average of 58 million and 4 times it was below by an average of 50 mil-
lion bushels.

U.S. WHEAT
June 1 Stocks and Supply, 1965-77

BIL, BU.

3.0 ‘
All wheat supply

2.0

All wheat stocks-June 1

7]
1.0 eine ea
hail eet
0 [ne OD Gs
1965 1970 1975, 1980
© WHEAT SUPPLY = JUNE 1 STOCKS PLUS PRODUCTION IN YEAR INDICATED.
USDA NEG. sus 64-77

WINTER WHEAT: Production of winter wheat is forecast at 1,539 million bushels, 2 percent less

than 1976 and 7 percent below the record 1975 crop. The decrease in production
from last year is a result of less acreage for harvest. The 1 percent increase from the June 1
production forecast is a result of more harvested acres.

Yield per harvested acre for the Nation is expected to average 31.8 bushels in 1977, com-
pared with 31.6 bushels last year.

The Nation's winter wheat crop matured rapidly with early June conditions mostly good in the
central and southern Plains. Ory conditions prevailed throughout much of the Pacific Northwest.
Yield prospects on July 1 were equal to or above a month earlier in most areas of the Nation.

Harvesting of the Nation's winter wheat crop began in May and by early June was widespread
throughout the southern areas, but lagging in the major producing areas because of wet fields.
Harvest in Oklahoma and Texas picked up momentum by mid-June and was ahead of average. Wheat
matured rapidly and farmers in Nebraska started harvest much ahead of normal. Nearing the end
of June, rains delayed the harvest in the Great Plains area with locally heavy rain and hail
lodging some fields. By July 1 Oklahoma and Texas harvest was 90 percent or more complete, while
Kansas was more than half and Nebraska a third complete. Harvesting was progressing at a near
normal pace in much of the soft red winter producing areas.

The Root Mean Square Error for the July | winter wheat production forecast computes to 3.0
percent. Using the approximate 90 percent confidence interval, the final estimate will not be
above or below the July 1 forecast by more than 5.2 percent or 80 million bushels.

Changes between the July 1 forecast and final estimate of production after harvest is
complete have averaged 30 million bushels during the past 10 years, ranging from 2 million to 80
million bushels. The July 1 forecast was above the final estimate 7 of the 10 years by an
average of 31 million bushels and below 3 times by an average of 26 million bushels.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CHERRIES
PRODUCTION 17

CROP AND STATE : TOTAL : ~~ TOTAL : IND
: 1975 : 1976 : 1977
= TON
CHERRIES, SWEET
CALIF : 30,500 51,000 27,000
COLO 2/ H 400 500 550
TDAHOTM : 1,550 3,000 2,700
MICH : 27,000 10,500 17,500
MONT : 2,400 2,650 2,500
NY : 6,800 13600 13000
OREG : 36,500 39,000 36,000
PA 2/ : 860 460 350
uTaH : 2,800 6,000 5,800
WASH : 43,100 54,300 38,000

TOTAL : 151,910 169,010 131,400
: MILLION POUNDS

CHERRIES, TART

COLO 24 3.3 3.3 3.3
MICH 2/ 222.0 90.0 165.0
Ny 27 : 27.4 14.3 11.0
OHIO 2/ : +6 3 +2
OREG : 6.2 6.6 7.0
PA 2/ : 12.6 7.6 3.2
UTAH : 8.0 17.0 12,6
WIS 2/ : 10.4 5.9 10.0

TOTAL 290.5 145.0 212.3

7_ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE, SWEET CHERRIES, TOTAL 1976 - 5,030 TONS. TART
‘THERRIES, TOTAL 1975 - 44.4 MILLION POUNDS.
2 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

POTATOES
SEASONAL GROYP ~ | AREA HARVESTED ! YIELD | PRODUCTION
ann T T v TxD” T TT TING ¢ v TINS
STATE | 1975 | 1976 1 _1977_1 1975 | 1976 | 1977 | 1975 | 1976 | 1977
T 1,000 ACRES cw T+000 CWT

1

WINTER '

I
TOTAL vw 14.3 16.4 13.6 202207 182 29887 =» 29842 8D

'

SPRING 1

i
TOTAL wi 8405 99,0 91.3 237-250 245 199994 244779 224347

!

‘SUMMER 1
ALA ' 90 8,2 7.8 159 145 125 14350 31208 97s
CALIF 4 Bed 8.1 ale 370 360 370 39108 36108
cov ' Mee 75 669 «260 = 260 260 16872 14656
EL ‘ 567 5.8 5.3 165 2000 ano 941 14060
TLL ' 2.0 2.7 25 199 190 199 360 65
ND ‘ 8 1,2 162 18) 185 165 144 222
Tova ' 3el 2,9 202 204 185 170 620 374
Mo 1 168 1,8 166 179 170 170 306 272
MICH ' Teh 7,6 7.8 190 170 17s 19406 19292 19365
MINN 1 Bel 8,0 7.8 260 250 0275 29106 = 24000-29063
NEBR ' 205 2.2 2ek 169 160 179 400 352 387
NJ 1 7.) 7,6 THD 195 260 265 19365 19976 25094
N MEX ' 365 342 364 200 180 200 700 576 680
Nt 4 aed 4.0 40 = 125 135 125 480 540 500
onto ! 209 2.9 2.8 165 200 165 479 580 462
TENN ( Sec 4.7 5.0 85 95 90 425 447 450
TEX ' 8.6 9.6 9.6 «25m 24528 2150 24352 2 496
vA ' 2549 28.5 TT 96 123 125 2,400 35506 3,463
wova 1 . 3.6 368 72 76 66 266 274 251

1
TOTAL i 11567 120,1 117.5 18) 189 190 20,898 225688 22,323

4

Vf ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION. JULY 1977 B-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS. !SDA


CROP PRODUCTION (G5:

leased: July 12, 1977
; Ju
Released: : y “4. Statistical Reporting
3:00 P g Service

US. Department
of Agriculture

Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS
CORN production is forecast at a record 6,331 million bushels based on conditions
as of July 1, 2 percent larger than the 1976 crop and 9 percent above the
1975 crop. The 1977 yield per acre is indicated at 89.4 bushels, 2.0 bushels
above 1976 but below the 1972 record yield of 97.1 bushels,

OATS production is expected to total 707 million bushels, 26 percent above last
year.

BARLEY production is placed at 396 million bushels, 5 percent above 1976.

ALL WHEAT production if forecast at 2,044 million bushels, 5 percent less than
ast year's record crop.

WINTER WHEAT production at 1,539 million bushels is 13 million bushels (1 percent)
above last month's forecast but 2 percent below 1976.

DURUM WHEAT production is expected to total 87 million bushels, 36 percent below
O76.

SPRING WHEAT OTHER THAN DURUM is forecast at 418 million bushels, 6 percent below
Tast year.

FLUE CURED TOBACCO production is forecast at 1,152 million pounds, down 12 percent
from last year.

SUMMER POTATO production is forecast at 22.3 million cwt., 2 percent below the
crop.

APPLE production is forecast at 6.8 billion pounds, 7 percent above the freeze-
damaged 1976 total but below 1975 by 9 percent.

PEACHES are expected to total 3.0 billion pounds, a 2 percent improvement from
ast month and only slightly less than last year.

CrPr 2-2 (7-77) For information call: (202) 447-2127


North Carolina has prospects for good flue-cured crop in the Old and Middle belts, but mois-
ture is short in some areas and rain will be needed soon. About one-third of the acreage is
irrigated. Harvest is about three weeks away. The Eastern belt prospects are also good and
priming is underway in some localities. In the Border belt prospects are fair to good. Farmers
are topping and applying sucker control and harvest is underway in some localities. The crop in
this area is maturing at about the same pace as a year earlier.

South Carolina's tobacco crop was in fair to good condition on July 1. Harvest was underway
in some fields, while in others topping and application of contact sucker control chemicals were
still underway. The crop is maturing in an erratic pattern due to the uneven: rainfall distribu-
tion. Virginia's crop is in good condition as the majority of the flue-cured acreage is in areas
that recently received rains.

Extremely hot, dry weather in Alabama, Florida and Georgia during the past two months has
lowered the yields on the non-irrigated portion of the crop. Approximately one-fourth of the crop
has been harvested.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEEO: The condition of pasture and range feed on July 1 was 68 percent for

. the 48 contiguous States, down 7 percentage points from a year ago and
16 points below the 1966-75 average. The reported condition indicates pasture and range feed in
the Nation is generally poor to fair. Very poor conditions dominated the West and Southeast.
Only the New England States, Minnesota, Nebraska and Kansas reported good to excellent
conditions.

APPLES: The Nation's apple crop is initially forecast at 6.8 billion pounds (162.9 million

42-pound equivalents). This would be a7 percent increase from last year's freeze-
damaged crop, but lags the 1975 total by 9 percent. Increases from 1976 were registered in
virtually all major preducing areas.

Production in the Eastern States is estimated at 2.6 billion pounds, up 11 percent from
last year's total of 2.4 billion, but 16 percent below the 1975 figure. New York's apple crop,
forecast at 860.0 million pounds, is 5 percent above 1976. Pollination and fruit set is good
and fruit sizing is progressing well. The New England output is expected to total 10 percent
More than a year ago despite poor pollinating weather and frost damage in many Massachuesttes
orchards, The Pennsylvania crop, forecast 19 percent above a year ago, is two weeks ahead of
norma? and size is reported good. In Virginia, production is expected to total 18 percent above
1976 despite extensive spring frost damage and extremely dry conditions to date. The West
Virginia crop is expected to be 5 percent above last year and a 9 percent larger harvest is
predicted in North Carolina.

In the Central States, the crop is forecast at 998.5 million pounds, 15 percent higher than
in 1976 but nearly one-fourth less than the 1975 total. Development of Michigan's 540.0
million pound crop, up 13 percent from last year is ahead of normal following some frost damage
in April and May. Growing weather has been good, with rains aiding fruit sizing. Illinois and
Indiana expect substantially larger crops than last year but Ohio production is expected to dip
one-third below the 1976 total due to spring frost damage and below normal rainfall.

The Western States crop is initally forecast at 3.2 billion pounds, 2 percent above last
year's total and 5 percent more than in 1975. In Washington (the Nation's leading producer),
output is expected to total a record-breaking 2.3 billion pounds, surpassing the 1976 (record
crop) by 2 percent and 5 percent above the 1975 total. Trees overwintered in good condition and
bloom was on schedule. Pollination weather was ideal, although spring frosts and scattered hail
storms damaged the crop in some orchards. Apple development has made good progress and sizes
are ahead of last year. The Oregon crop at 160.0 million pounds is off 6 percent from 1976 and
Idaho's output is 12 percent below last year. In California, production is expected to total
490.0 million pounds, 2 percent above 1976. Golden Delicious apples were damaged by frosts and
Red Delicious are spotted, but al] other varieties are in good condition and sizing well.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Spotty rainfall in Montana has produced variable conditions. Timely rainfall will be needed
to maintain growth. Stands are also variable in Idaho because of dry conditions during planting.
Some Washington fields are under moisture stress.

The Root Mean Square Error for the July 1 other spring wheat production forecast computes to
12.0 percent. Using the approximate 90 percent confidence interval, the final estimate will not
be above or below the July 1 forecast by more than 20.7 percent or 87 million bushels.

During the past 10 years; changes in production from the July 1 forecast to the final esti-
mate averaged 32 million bushels, ranging from 3 to 97 million bushels. During that period, the
duly 1 forecast was above the final estimate twice by an average of 78 million bushels and below
8 times by an average of 20 million bushels.

RYE: Production of rye for 1977 is forecast at 17.8 million bushels, 7 percent above the 1976
~~ crop of 16.7 million bushels. Yields have rebounded from drought conditions last year in
several midwestern States and as of July 1 indicate a U.S. average of 22.7 bushels per acre, 2
bushels above 1976, Of the 29 States estimating rye yields, 11 expect an increase, 6 expect no
change and 12 expect a decrease from last year. Acreage for grain continues to decline, to a new
record low of 785,000 acres for 1977.

Rye output in South Dakota, the leading producing State, is expected to more than double
Yast year's drought-plagued crop. Minnesota shows a slight increase as higher yields more than
offset a drop in acreage. The Minnesota crop is nearly three weeks ahead of normal. The North
Dakota crop is about two weeks ahead of normal but production is down a third following a 28 per-
cent drop in acreage and a 1.5 bushel yield decline. In Georgia harvest was nearly complete by
duly 1, Yields were less than last year because of dry weather and heavy grazing.

During the past decade, changes in production from the July 1 forecast to the final estimate
have averaged 1.2 million bushels, ranging from 0.3 million to 2.7 million bushels. Ouring those
10 years, the July 1 forecast has been above the final estimate 8 times by an average of 1.2 mil-
lion bushels and below twice by an average of 1.2 million bushels.

POTATOES: The first forecast of summer potato production for 1977 at 22,3 million cwt. is 2 per-
cent below the 22.7 million cwt. harvested in 1976 but 7 percent above 1975 production.
Area for harvest in 1977 is estimated at 117,500 acres, 2 percent below the 120,100 acres har-

vested in 1976. The average yield per acre is forecast at 190 cwt. compared with 189 cwt. in
1976 and 18) cwt. in 1975.

Harvest is underway in New Jersey, with good prospects as a result of irrigation. Harvest
in Delaware and Maryland is slightly ahead of normal. In North Carolina, crop condition is good,
Harvest in Virginia is underway in most areas. Yields are variable although generally favorable.

Harvest in Alabama is underway. Dry weather has reduced yields. In Michigan, lack of soil
moisture is doing some harm to non-irrigated fields. The crop still looks good. In Minnesota,
growing conditions have been favorable this year. Limited harvest has begun in Ohio. Growing
conditions on the High Plains of Texas have been very good, although there has been minor hail
damage in isolated areas. In Colorado, the crop has developed favorably and is in generally good
condition statewide. Some hail damage and shortage of irrigation water has lowered prospects.
The California crop is making good progress and good yields are expected. Harvest in Southern
California areas began the early part of July.

FLUE-CURED TOBACCO: Production of flue-cured tobacco is forecast at 1,152 million pounds, down

; . 12 percent from the output of 1,316 million pounds in 1976. The smaller
Prospective production reflects a decrease in acreage for harvest to 593,075, 11 percent below

the 666,640 acres a year earlier. The July ? indicated yield of 1,943 pounds compares with 1,974
pounds obtained last year.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


OATS: Production of the 1977 oat crop is forecast at 707 million bushels, 26 percent above last
year and 8 percent above 1975. Yield is expected to average 49.4 bushels per harvested

acre, 4 bushels above 1976 and the highest yield since 1972, In addition to the higher yield, a

15 percent increase in acreage intended for grain contributed to the higher production forecast.

Development of the 1977 oat crop is 2 to 3 weeks ahead of normal as a result of early seed-
ing this spring and above normal temperatures in the major production areas. Moisture conditions
varied among the major producing states. Minnesota and Texas have had adequate moisture while
Wisconsin, South Dakota and parts of North Dakota received timely rains. A general lack of
moisture in Iowa is limiting average yields to the lowest level since 1964. In some of the
North Central States, oats were heading on short straw.

The Root Mean Square Error for the July 1 oat production forecast computes to 7.4 percent.
Chances are about 9 out of 10 that the final estimate will not be above or below the July 1 fore-
cast by more than 12.8 percent or 92 mijlion bushels.

During the past decade, changes in production between the July 1 forecast and the final
estimate have averaged 46.4 million bushels, ranging from 20 to 73 million bushels, The July 1
forecast has been above the final estimate 5 times by an average of 50.8 million bushels and
below 5 times by an average of 42.0 million bushels.

BARLEY: Barley production is forecast at 396 million bushels for 1977, up 5 percent from 1976
production and 3 percent above the 1975 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 41.2
bushels, 3.6 bushels below 1976. A 14 percent increase in acreage for harvest more than offset

the lower yield.

Yields are expected to average below 1976 levels in all major barley States except South
Dakota and Minnesota. Average yield in South Dakota is expected to be up 19 bushels from last
year and in Minnesota, 4.5 bushels higher. Yields forecast in the other major barley States are
lower than last year by 1 bushel per acre in California and North Dakota, 7 bushels in Colorado,
8 bushels in Idaho, 13.5 bushels in Montana, and 18 bushels in Washington.

The Minnesota crop is about 3 weeks early and has mostly adequate moisture. High tempera-
tures and dry weather generally limit yields in other major producing States. Yields in Washing-
ton are expected to average the lowest since 1958. Barley on deep soil is expected to yield well
but barley on shallow soil is marginal. Harvest is active in southern and central California.
Yields from irrigated acreage are good but dry Tand yields are poor. In North Dakota, the crop
is about 2 weeks early and subsoil moisture is short. The South Dakota crop is early and top
soil moisture is short. Much of the Idaho crop was dry seeded. Rains in May and June relieved
drought somewhat, but moisture reserves are low. Dryland barley condition in Montana varies be-
cause of scattered showers. The crop is early. The Colorado crop was about 21] percent harvested

by July 1.

The Root Mean Square Error for the July 1 barley production forecast computes to 7.4 percent.
Using the approximate 90 percent confidence interval, the final estimate will not be above or below
the July 1 forecast by more than 5] million bushels.

Changes between the July 1 forecast and final production estimates have averaged 23.6 mil-
lon bushels for the past 10 years, and ranged from 0.8 million to 65.8 million bushels. During
those 10 years, the July 1 forecast has been above the final 4 times, averaging 20.5 million
bushels and below 6 times, averaging 25.7 million bushels.

ALL WHEAT: Production of all wheat is forecast at 2,044 million bushels, 5 percent less than Tast
year's record high 2,147 million bushel crop and 4 percent below 2 years ago. It will
be the third largest of record if realized. The reduction from last year results from fewer acres

for harvest.

The indicated average yield for the U.S. of 30.7 bushels per acre compares with 30.3 last
year and 30,7 two years ago. Area to be harvested for grain is estimated at 66.5 million acres,
6 percent less than last year. This is 89 percent of the planted acres and compares with 88 per-
cent harvested for grain in 1976.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PEACHES

D
1977

10.0
4040
45020
24,0
5.0

18,0
1,488.0

1050000

1 ProducTION 1/
cROP _ POUNDS.
AND
STATE 11975 t 1976
ATL
PEACHES
ALA 1400
ARK 4260
CALIF *FREESTONE 46400
COLO 14.5
CONN fel
DEL 166
OA 20000
TDAHO 1220
TUL 2000
IND 3.5
ANS 20
ky 90
La 7.0
MD 1860
MASS 45
MICH 4050
MISS bed
Mo 2205
NJ 8000
NY 95
nc 2540
OHIO 1240
OKLA 860
OREG 1540
PA 11060
sc 255.0
TENN et BT 6.0
TEX s 1660 2150
UTAH avn 1600 18.0
va ' 3200 1520
wash ! 38.0 42.0
weVA 4 28.0 15.0
TOTAL 4 193900k = 1952202
PEACHES CLINGSTONE ve
CALIF t 1048200 1949600
ALL PEACHES t
us 1 298421 3901802

2,988.0

1975

146
729
Bo106
348
113

6?
19979
219
563
208
229
344
63
479
110
19354
83
479
1,979
334
628
olT

S9v211

PRODUCTION
48 ‘|

1976
01

292
875
99667
302
6s

33
e167
280
“iy
us
83

188

20202

$2313:
167

438
37s
313
875
3
319718

319167

1977

31,001
325280
62,251

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS ee eeed
{MILLION POUNDS)! UNITED STATES, 1975=28.09 197602

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM zane ieR, FORECAST,

3/ CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE: IS OVER THE SCALE: TONNAGE AND
INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS (MILLION POUNDS:
§ 19750150009 19760156606

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977

B-8

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA




CROP PROSPECTS*
July 1, 1977

CROP PROSPECTS*
July 1, 1976

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 A-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

Stave 3 AREA HARVESTED ' YIELO ' PRODUCTION

i 7 7 THOT IND T———TND—

4 1975 ¢ \976 1 1977 § 1975 4 1976 t 1977 t 1975 4 1976 ¢ 1977

1 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

'
ALA ' 660 796 750 5340 = 62404040 = 34980 = 494352 30000
ARIZ 3 28 SU 3360 ©8040 85040 396 19680 35000
ARK ' “5 44 5040 35.0 19900 26520 19540
CALIF ot 290 250 = 109.0 210.0 279686 31,900 274500
cove ' 600 620-9340 104,0 489825 = 625400 © 649 480
CONN t
EL ' 218 205 91s 83,0 179290 18,275 17,015
FLA 1 504 550 4540 28,0 179730 309240 159400
oa ! 29160 16720 58.0 26.0 1039400 © 1332920 444720
TOaHO 1 29 26 © 63.0 85.0 29075 24465 24210
TLL 1 110690 11640 110,0 192539960 172505830 142126200
IND ' 69300 98.0 10060 5519740 6934000 620,000
Towa t 126750 90.0 92.0 LeL0T+000 191474500 151501000
KANS ’ 19790 84.0 100.0 1379760 1709080 = 165,000
ky t 19360 7740 93.0 879780 1384720 © 1326060
La 1 87 52.0 50.0 30120 54916 45000
MAINE 1
4D ' 630 9260 88.0 500050 = 574330 = 544 560
MASS ot
MICH ' 29050 80.0 75.0 1526800 1414450 = 1534750
WINN 3 39600 70.0 90.0 4079400 3300400 = 324000
Miss) ot 172 41.0 3640 59945 8,084 65480
Mo ' 21650 63.0 80,0 1709100 1734850 216,000
MONT t ret 73,0 75.0 130 825 900
NEBR i 69200 85.0 95.0 503-200 514,600 6034250
NH '
Nu 83 100 104 = 82408640 8640 66723 8.600 81944
NMEX ot 70 88 95 10000 10540 100.0 74000 94260 96500
NY ' 466 492 $30 85.0 = 7740 = 8040 © 399610 37,884 = 425 400
Nc i 14590 15880 19820 6760 ©8040 = 7840 = :1064530 = 1504400 = 141 960
N DAK of 132 180 190 $140 40.0 = 5040 69732 74200 94500
ono) ot 39490 39920 39750 9240-10240 «= 8540 © 3210080 © 3954920 3184750
OKLA ! 8s 91 85 = 8060 98.0 9080 61800 81645 74650
ORE ' a it aL 85.0 9000 8520 935 990 935
pa t 19089 1186 A165 BZD 940 BH = 8Bx5H0 = 103,500 = 934200

1 ’

sc ' 550 667 660 63.0 7040 5860 = 34650 © 464690 © 38 280
S$ DAK 1% 25250 19200 20000 «= 3740 3100 © 4640 © 834250375200 ©=— 924 000
TENN ot 61s 5 750 60.0 7940 = 7040 © 364900 56,485 «= 524500
TEX ' 15100 1/500 19600 10360 12060 11540 2134300 1805000 1844000
UTAH ' 15 15 12 11060 90.0 += 100.0 11650 1,350 +200
VT t
va ' 565 615 630 B40 7640 = 7540 48890 464740 «47250
WASH t 4 crs 45 104.0 10540 © 108.0 39536 49620 45860
w ova 1 65 61 59 8540 BRD B60 5,525 $5368 51074
wrs ' 25390 24180 20400 = 8300 = AO = 9040 = 198537 = 1484240 © 2164000
WYO ' 1s 19 20 8020 © 8740 804 15440 14653 1,600
us 1679222 714085 700823 B6e2 B74 94S 507979048 692164032 643901668

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 8-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


BARLEY

STATE 1 AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELD ' PRODUCTION

1 1’ 1 IND ¢ a INO # 0 ' TNO”

1 1975 5 1976 + 1977 | 2975 ¥ 1976 1 1977 9 1975 1 1976 7 1977

1 19060 ACRES BUSHELS 12000 BUSHELS

'
ARIZ 1 11s 100 100-7540 ©7640 7900 81628 79600 76900
CALIF 4 20060 19010 9305740 S600 © S540 = 609820 SbeS60 = $10150
colo ! 230 268 2400 «83,0 SS 46.0001 130675 114520
DEL + 23 22 ay 4100 3640 880 756
GA ' 8 10 Yn 38,0 4300 450 473
TOaHo 5 75S 800 91S 8060 46.0 430200 © 424090
TLL t vy 13 130 42.0 4160 520 333
IND 1 lo 9 8 = 42.0 4400 378 352
KANS ‘ 8s 16 90 © 3540 3520 1,928 29584 39150
ky 1 34 30 28 © 37.0 4400 19110 14232
MD t 100 rs 90 43.0 42.0 49230 30780
WIeH i 22 21 22 48,0 48.0 a2 990
MINN ot 850 a0 9600 «37.5 45.0 «320875 344830 449 100
O ' ly lo ro 36.0 3920 396 320 390
MONT ' 19300 19170 196300 -39.0 3160 500700 529065 = 444 330
NEBR ot 33 38 a1 36.0 4000 letes 14368 14240
NEV ' iy 16 16 5060 35.0 700 ae8 880
NJ ’ 1a 20 17 48.0 4500 864 980 765
NMEX 8 28 20 2s 58.0 58.9 19624 19020 1y450
NY i 12 12 130 42,0 4060 50. 492 $20
nc 1 ST 60 ST 45,0 42.0 25565 24340 25394
N DAK of 29100 20140 20800 = 38.0 3760 = 790800 «= e320: 924500
OHIO 4 12 12 130 47.0 4700 S64 S64 eur
OKLA ' 93 as 140-3060 36.0 24790 30570 5,040
oreo ot irr 160 180 5060 4400 89850 74360 7,920
Pa ' 155 167 145-8060 $8.0 19750 69321 69960
sc 1 23 23 22 38.0 3960 87% 805 858
S$ DAK of 532 350 64030 3600 = 169492 $9950 234040
TENN 1 1 vy 1441.0 40.0 434 532 560
TEX ' To 82 85 34,0 38,0 29380 24028 34230
UTAH t 135 126 125 60.0 540 89100 65930 65750
va ‘ 106 103 100-4760 43.0 4888 49738 4,300
WASH ' 400 390 410° 83,0 36,0 = 219200 214060 144.760
wova ' do 9 9 4660 43.0 460 378 387
wis ' 38 32 28 43.0 48,0 19508 1,280 14346
WYO ’ 134 138 142-8700 52.0 79638 8,280 7,384
us i 85743 8417 9600 4369 41,2 3830920 377,264 3955639
CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 8-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PER HECTARE = PRODUCTION ;
: 5 Fi 7 INDICATE
CROP 1976: INOICATED 1976 ; INDICATED: y976 - "7
: 2 77 2 7 11977: (1977
HECTARES METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 2 28,767,390 28,661 ,360 5.49 5.61 157,894,490 160,806,370
OATS : 5,014,920 5,787,070 1.63 1.77 8,163,970 10,263,150
BARLEY 3,406,280 3,885,020 2.41 2.22 8,213,950 8,614,020
ALL WHEAT 283,661,770 26,921,600 2.04 2.07  58,442)870 55,620,110

WINTER 20,046,320 19,607,640 2.13 2.14 42,621,550 41,525,470 41,885,510

OURUM 15855,100 1,230,660 1.98 7.92 3,671,760 2,357,550

OTHER SPRING 6,760,350 6,083,300 1.80 1.87 12,149,560 11,377,050
RYE 325,370 317,680 1.30 1.42 423,360 451,810
SUMMER POTATOES 48,600 47,550 21.17 21.29 1,029,100 1,012,550
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO

TYPES 11-14 269,770 240,020 2.21 2.18 597 ,040 522,710
APPLES, COM'L 2,901",070 3,102,780
PEACHES 1/ 1,369,030 1,331,290 1,358,330
PEARS 768,110 703 ,880
SWEET CHERRIES 2/ 153,310 115,210 139,200
TART CHERRIES 2/ 65.770 95,750 96,300
APRICOTS 140,430 140,340 131,270
NECTARINES (CALIF) 120,660 113,400 117,930
PLUMS (CALIF) 104,330 1223470 127,010
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) 131,540 137,890 337,890
ALMONDS (CALIF) 211,370 215,910 231,330
WALNUTS 166,650 182,160

CITRUS FRUITS 3/ 1975-76 1976-77 1976-77

~ 5,506,390 9,840,230 ~ 5,738,630
GRAPEFRUIT 2,585,480 2,736,980 2,724,280
LEMONS 3 614,160 __ 896, 300 879,060

Y7__ INCLUDES CULTS AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA CLINGSTONE PEACHES AS FOLLOWS IN METRIC TONS:

7976 - 69,850. 2/ ESTIMATES IN JUNE 1 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECAST IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF JUNE 15.

# SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOW-

NG YEAR.

RELIABILITY OF JULY 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based on acreage surveys conducted around

dune 1 and yield surveys conducted around July 1, The acreage estimates published in the June 30
Acreage Report and used in this report include acres already planted at the time of the survey
and acreage intended for planting later. The July 1 yield surveys included mailed reports from
farmers for all crops and actual field observations in wheat fields, Farmers provided appraisals
of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops on their farms and for their locali-
ties. Objective Yield surveys provided small plot observations, counts and measurements in a
probability sample of wheat fields. These surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling type
errors that are common to all surveys. More importantly, the production forecasts are subject to

change due to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured currently but
directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in this report the
"Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure hased on past performance, is included in the
comments for selected crops. This is computed by expressing the deviations between the July pro-
duction forecasts and the final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the
squared percentage deviations for the 1957-76 twenty year period; the square root of this average
becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning
expected errors in the current forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming
that factors affecting this year's forecasts are not different from those influencing recent year
forecasts. For example, a Root Mean Square Error of 5.0 percent means that chances are about 2
out of 3 that the current production forecast will not differ from the final estimate by more
than 5.0 percent, and about 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 8.6 percent. Approx-
imate confidence intervals can be computed by applying these percentage deviations to the current
production forecasts.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 , A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/

state, AVERAGE

: i > AVERAGE :
1966-78 1976 : 1977 : STATE + ig66-75 1976 : 1977
PERCENT H A PERCENT

ALA 79 83 44 84 68 75
ARIZ 72 68 59 oo 90 87
ARK 82 87 54 84 71 n
CALIF 78 46 42 67 55 66
COLO 79 66 62 91 93 73
CONN 88 82 82 87 87 78
DEL 88 60 66 87 64 55
FLA 81 85 55 90 74 62
GA 82 85 43 82 a4 79
IDAHO 87 91 vA 83 86 70
TLL 90 77 67 88 88 72
IND 91 82 73 1 88 90
IOWA 1 81 5 80 87 64
KANS 84 79 90 85 37 77
ky 91 89 77 85 88 76
u 75 79 60 75 75 73
MAINE 1 89 92 83 79 52
NO 85 75 66 89 93 15
MASS 88 a2 85 : 89 83 63
MICH 90 83 51 WASH 85 88 59
MINN 92 52 82 :W VA 86 74 58
MISS 82 81 49 IS 2 62 7
MO 86 78 74 YO 87 92 73
MONT 85 90 66
NEBR 85 65 90 Ss 84 75 68

, ol
EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 B-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PER ACRE PRODIETION
: : ; : A INDICATED
CROP AND UNIT i976: INOEGATED © yore INDICATED 976 SUNT TOL
: 1977 1977
T 000 RORES T,000-
CORN FOR GRAIN BU: 71,085 «70,823 «87.8 «89.4 6,216,032 6,330,668
OATS wy 42,392 14,300 45.4 49.4 962,452 707,074
BARLEY ny 8,417 9,600 44.8 41.2 377,264 395 639
ALL WHEAT "70,824 = 66.524 = 30.3 «30.7 2, 147,408 2,043 7689
WINTER :  49)535 4845) 31:6 31:8 175663074 1,525,800 175397029
SURUM ay5aa 3081 29.4 28.5 134,914 625
OTHER SPRING 16,708 15,032 36.7 27.8 463420 418,035
€ : 304 785 20.7 22.7 16,667 17787
SUMMER POTATOES cut: = 120.1 17.5 189190 22688 22323
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO :
TYPES 11-14 LB; 666.6 593.1 -—«*1,974 1,983 1,316,257 1,152,378
PASTURE AND RANGE 1/ PCT: 75 68
APPLES, COM'L LB: 6,395,800 6,840,500
PEACHES 2/ "G 3,018,200 2,935,000 2,988, 000
PEARS 346.7 715.9
SHEET CHERRIES 3/ 169.0 127.0, (131.4
TART CHERRIES 37 145,000 217,100 212,300
APRICOTS 154.8 154.7 144.7
NECTARINES. (CALIF) 133.0 12510 130.0
PLUMS (CALIF) 115.0 135.0 140.0
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) "3 145,0 152.0 152.0
ALMONDS (CALIF) oy 233.0 238.0 255.0
WALNUTS mG 183.7 200.8
CITRUS FRUITS 4/ : 1975-16 1976-77 1976-77
22, 300 7550 ~ 207,350
GRAPEFRUIT 70,080 747000 ©—-73.700
LENO 173820 26,000_25,500
AN TRST OF WON AVERA\ Ay N’ Nl NE
Tues AND CANNERY DIVERSIONS FOR CALIFORNIA CL INGGTONE PEACHES 6 FOLLONS. IN THOUSAND POUNDS. 1976 -

154,000.

3/ ESTIMATES IN JUNE 1 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECAST IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF JUNE 15.

4/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF “THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOW-

TING YEAR,

headquarters.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with related
information on selected agricultural commodities,
and adopted by the Crop Reporting Board which consists of commodity statis-

ticians fram the Statistical Reporting Service's field offices and Washington

These data were prepared

CROP REPORTING BOARD:

B. M. Graham, Chairman,
M. L. Koehn, Secretary,
APPROVED: d. W. Kirkbride, F. €. Ralf,
H, L. Carter, R. P. smali,
R. A. Binning, DO. J. Buckner,
H. J. DeLong, W. N. Dowdy,
J. R. Garrett, 3. R. Gibson,
0. E. Hamilton, 0. H. Johnson,
S. A. Kellogg, R. L. Schulte,
“ J. C. Seibert, H. J. Tippett,
| W. J. Walker, W. W. Wilken,
I SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE 6. W. Zeller.
A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977


PEACHES: The U.S. peach crop is forecast as of July 1} at 3.0 billion pounds, a 2 percent

improvement from last month and only slightly below last year's total. Excluding
California Clingstone production (used mostly for canning), peach output is expected to total 1.5
billion pounds, off 3 percent from last month and 2 percent below the 1976 figure.

In California, the Clingstone crop is forecast at 1.5 billion pounds, slightly above last
year's total and 3 percent higher than the 1975 output. Fruit is sizing rapidly and water
supplies are adequate to carry the crop through to harvest, expected to begin in late July.
California's Freestone crop, forecast at 450.0 million pounds, is off 2 percent from last month
and 3 percent below the 1976 total. Fruit size is good, but many peaches have split pits due to
cool May temperatures followed by abrupt warming in June.

Production in the nine Southern States is now forecast at 545.5 million pounds, a reduction
of 7 percent from the June ) forecast, but stil) wel) above the totals during the last four
seasons. In Georgia and South Carolina, the region's top producers, crop prospects were further
reduced by continued dry weather along with disease problems and hail damage in some orchards.
Harvest is in full swing throughout the area.

The New Jersey crop, at 100.0 million pounds, improved during June despite moisture
shortages in southern areas of the State. The Pennsylvania peach crop is forecast at 95.0
million pounds. Condition of the crop is generally good and fruit is sizing well.

PEARS: The U.S. pear crop is forecast at 775,900 tons, 8 percent below last year but 4 percent
above the 1975 crop. Bartlett tonnage in Washington, Oregon, and California is expected
to total 549,000 tons, 1 percent Tess than the June 1 forecast and 6 percent less than last
season. The Crop is sizing well in California. Frost and hail losses reduced production in the
Medford area of Oregon. Washington weather during June was favorable for fruit growth. Pro-
duction of pears other than Bartlett's in the Pacific Coast states is initially placed at 181,000
tons, 21 percent below last season. Frost and hail reduced the crop in Oregon. In Washington,
frost during bloom reduced fruit set. June weather was favorable for growth and development.

In Michigan, development of all pears is ahead of normal due to the early spring. Late

April and early May frost did some damage. The set in New York is fair to good and fruit is
sizing well.

GRAPES: California's grape crop is expected to total a record 4.1 million tons in 1977. A crop
; of this size would be 5 percent larger than last year. Condition of vines is excellent.
Irrigation water has not been a problem. Early movement and demand are good for table varieties.

varyest of raisin type varieties for table use began the third week of June in the Coachella
alley.

SWEET CHERRIES: The U.S. sweet cherry crop is forecast at 131,400 tons, 22 percent below Vast

year's production and 14 percent below 1975, The major producing area, the
three Pacific Coast States, expects to harvest 101,000 tons compared with 144,300 tons in 1976.
The California crop is down 47 percent as a result of a light set attributed to the heavy crop
last year. This smaller set produced larger fruit and a lower percentage of blemishes and cull
fruit. In Washington the crop was reduced by poor pollination conditions and frost later in the
season, Generally a high percentage packout has been reported with good quality fruit. In
Oregon, size and quality are good. 1n Michigan harvest was early this year; some early varieties
were cracking in the northwestern area,

TART CHERRIES: Production of tart cherries is placed at 212.3 million pounds, 46 percent greater
than the 1976 harvest. The Great Lakes States mid-June forecast at 189.4 million
pounds compares with 118.1 million pounds in 1976,

APRICOTS: The U.S. apricot crop forecast at 144,700 tons is down 6 percent from last month and

is 7 percent less than last year's production. The California crop forecast at
140,000 tons is 7 percent below the 1976 crop. Harvest was expected to peak about July 8th.
Quality to date has been excellent however sizes are running smaller than expected earlier.
Washington conditions during June were ideal for sizing. Prospects continue bright for a crop
of good quality and fruit size.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Oars

STATE AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO _ PRODUCTION

t t + or rr rt C~—O:CSSE

1. A976 4 1977 4 1975 § 1976 } Y9T7T F 1978 1 1976 1 A977.
15000 ACRES BUSHELS 12000 BUSHELS

1
ALA ' 33 30 30 34,0 3660 3260 1ela2 12080 960
ARK : 60 70 6s 50.0 7620 6900 39000 $0320 42485
CALIF t 113 115 120 53-0 4920 51.0 50989 5.635 60120
coLo t 42 50 40 4700 4700 4800 19974 20350 14920
FLA ' 12 12 1200 4200 = 5000 4000 492 400 480
Ga ' 90 100 100 45.0 5 4500 49050 Seloo 46500
IDAHO 1 64 57 65 $40 52.0 39456 39192 39380
TLL ' 490 410 360 54.0 $3.0 260460 = - 235780 199080
INO t 250 220 150 52.0 45.0 139000 109860 69750
TOWA 1 1,500 19675 19450 5340 50.0 799500 874025 726500
KANS ' 150 240 250 40.0 4200 69000 10080 109500
KY ' lo 10 9 41.0 42.0 410 350 376
ta ' 8 do 9 3340 48.0 264 400 432
MAINE 1 42 3° “a 54,0 53.0 20266 10924 24332
MO ' a4 25 2s 55.0 48.0 19320 15350 19200
MICH t 370 388 360 56,0 48,0 209720 199635 179280
MINN ' 2,000 25060 29410 50.5 59.0 1019000 929700 1426190
MISS ‘ 27 23 23 4060 45.0 19080 966 19035
MO 1 100 179 165 3940 52.0 3+900 6B00 8.580
MONT 1 250 230 260 43.0 41,0 109750 109810 109660
NEBR ' 590 640 650 49.0 53.0 289910 26,860 341450
NEV t 3 3 3 55.0 46.0 144 138
NJ ' 7 8 8 = 4340 4760 408 376
NY ' 350 315 310 57.0 48,0 169380 14,880
NC t 80 8o TS 50.0 45,0 39600 34375
N OAK of 19370 19180 19750 4120 37.0 441840 644750
OHTO t 500 500 410 6160 52.0 279500 21,320
OKLA ' 120 132 180 3340 43.0 50940 65450
OREG + 80 Bo 90 5000 50.0 49160 45500
PA : 375 365 350 51.0 45.0 184250 159750
sc t 3 70 65 4400 4400 20870 =, 880
S DAK 1 29230 19420 29590 4450 46.0 425600 1195140
TENN 7 30 32 29 4000 42.0 19440 16218
TEX 1 650 390 500 3000 40.0 144430 20,000
UTAH 1 13 12 12 56.0 52.0 684 624
vA ’ 40 42 43 4240 42.0 15890 1,606
WASH 1 45 45 45 52.0 45.0 29565 2,025
WeVA t 1a 16 16 43,0 41.0 656 656
wis ' 19350 16280 29200 5540 6360 769250 552060 754600
av t 50 83 $7 40.0 42.0 29000 29438 25394
us 1 134609 125392 149390 40.3 49,4 6571640 5620452 707,076
CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1977 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA