Cr Pr 2-2 (4-03)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released April 10, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down Less Than 1 Percent.

The U.S. all orange April 1 forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.3 million tons, virtually unchanged from the

March forecast but down 9 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. Florida’s all orange forecast, at

198 million boxes (8.91 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 14 percent below last

season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 112 boxes (5.04 million tons), 1 percent

below the previous forecast and 12 percent less than last season’s final utilization. Harvest is complete. 

Florida’s Valencia forecast is unchanged at 86.0 million boxes (3.87 million tons) but 16 percent below the

previous season.

The all orange forecast for California, at 62.0 million boxes, is unchanged from the previous forecast but

14 percent above the previous season’s revised utilization. Navel and Valencia oranges are unchanged at

40.0 million boxes (1.50 million tons) and 22.0 million boxes (825,000 tons), respectively. The Texas all

orange forecast is 1.58 million boxes (68,000 tons), down 100,000 boxes from the January forecast and

160,000 boxes less than last season’s utilized production. Arizona’s all orange utilization is forecast at

400,000 boxes (16,000 tons), a decrease of 50,000 boxes from the previous forecast and 120,000 boxes below

the 2001-02 utilization. If realized, this will be the sixth consecutive season of declining utilization for

Arizona.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is unchanged from last month at

1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is projected at 1.49 gallons per

box. The Valencia portion remains at 1.65 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume that the

processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on April 10, 2003.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................ 4

Crop Comments ....................................................................... 14

Crop Summary ......................................................................... 6

Information Contacts ................................................................... 18

Papayas ............................................................................... 5

Potatoes .............................................................................. 5

Reliability ............................................................................ 17

Weather Maps ........................................................................ 12

Weather Summary ..................................................................... 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 4 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted April 1, 2003 1 2

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

1,000 Boxes 3 1,000 Boxes 3 1,000 Boxes 3 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 4

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 6

 CA 6

 FL 7

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus 8

 FL

480

35,500

128,000

2,000

165,980

420

19,000

95,300

235

114,955

900

54,500

223,300

2,235

280,935

1,250

18,700

27,300

250

6,300

46,000

7,200

59,750

650

2,200

5,600

8,450

3,600

22,600

26,200

2,100

40

270

34,000

128,000

1,530

163,800

250

20,500

102,000

210

122,960

520

54,500

230,000

1,740

286,760

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

6,000

46,700

5,900

58,760

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

19,000

21,800

2,150

30

200

40,000

112,000

1,400

153,600

200

22,000

86,000

180

108,380

400

62,000

198,000

1,580

261,980

1,300

16,000

24,000

100

5,600

40,000

5,500

51,200

400

2,500

5,200

8,100

2,900

23,000

25,900

2,350

18

1,331

5,760

85

7,194

16

713

4,288

10

5,027

34

2,044

10,048

95

12,221

56

795

1,160

8

211

1,955

288

2,462

24

83

266

373

137

859

996

95

2

10

1,275

5,760

65

7,110

9

769

4,590

9

5,377

19

2,044

10,350

74

12,487

70

803

1,182

5

201

1,985

236

2,427

23

83

314

420

106

722

828

97

1

8

1,500

5,040

60

6,608

8

825

3,870

8

4,711

16

2,325

8,910

68

11,319

59

680

1,020

3

188

1,700

220

2,111

15

94

247

356

110

874

984

106

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 2001-02 Revised. 3 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early

Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors. 7 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst,

and Honey varieties only. 8 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 5 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2001-2003

Seasonal

Group

and

State

Area

Yield Production

Planted Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

Summer 1

 AL

 CA

 CO

 DE

 IL

 KS

 MD

 MO

 NJ

 NM

 TX

 VA

 Total

9.0

6.8

15.8

7.8

19.0

27.0

19.5

7.5

21.5

12.5

87.8

3.1

7.3

6.4

3.7

6.5

3.0

4.8

7.0

2.6

2.5

8.8

6.5

62.2

9.0

6.0

15.0

8.0

19.0

28.0

19.5

8.5

18.0

13.0

86.0

9.0

6.7

15.7

7.8

19.0

26.3

19.0

7.3

21.0

12.0

86.1

3.0

7.3

6.3

3.6

6.4

2.9

4.7

5.4

2.6

2.3

8.3

6.3

59.1

9.0

5.8

14.8

8.0

19.0

27.3

19.0

8.3

17.0

12.5

83.8

270

265

268

270

405

300

315

260

170

170

271

185

360

360

260

310

340

250

240

275

320

400

220

304

310

235

281

280

410

286

300

255

165

240

282

2,790

1,325

4,115

2,214

6,045

7,970

5,940

2,030

3,515

2,070

21,814

624

2,840

2,016

1,161

1,855

720

1,175

1,904

638

770

3,120

1,386

18,209

2,430

1,776

4,206

2,106

7,695

7,883

5,985

1,898

3,570

2,040

23,294

555

2,628

2,268

936

1,984

986

1,175

1,296

715

736

3,320

1,386

17,985

2,790

1,363

4,153

2,240

7,790

7,817

5,700

2,117

2,805

3,000

23,652

 1 2002 revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2002 2003

2002 2003 2002 2003

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Feb

Mar

2,555

2,490

2,085

2,255

1,925

1,930

1,510

1,735

3,310

3,375

3,775

4,015

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,073.0

79,054.0

5,005.0

450.0

3,240.0

1,395.0

9,580.0

60,358.0

41,735.0

2,909.0

15,714.0

1,459.0

785.0

191.0

1,358.0

3.4

219.0

73,758.0

2,585.0

13,962.6

13,719.0

243.6

1,427.9

21.5

1,922.1

302.7

221.0

1,310.0

15.8

87.8

62.2

1,144.2

97.2

5,379.0

79,022.0

4,828.0

3,038.0

9,451.0

61,697.0

44,308.0

2,833.0

14,556.0

1,249.0

1,244.0

73,182.0

2,517.0

14,253.0

14,053.0

200.0

1,399.3

1,522.8

15.0

86.0

93.5

4,135.0

69,313.0

7,490.0

64,497.0

23,135.0

41,362.0

2,098.0

220.0

3,207.0

286.0

7,299.0

352.0

45,817.0

29,651.0

2,703.0

13,463.0

1,275.0

704.0

175.0

1,296.7

3.1

196.0

72,160.0

2,205.0

12,413.3

12,171.0

242.3

1,361.0

1,026.1

430.3

11.6

1,726.9

279.7

209.0

6.2

0.3

29.3

80.2

1,275.7

15.7

86.1

59.1

1,114.8

18.0

83.3

0.4

63,552.0

2,204.0

417.5

14.8

83.8

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

54.9

130.0

14.0

2.34

3.19

1.86

56.8

12.5

6,578

24.4

50.7

9.5

35.3

38.5

29.4

29.3

1,218

17.9

705

2,561

1,461

1,520

37.8

1,133

663

651

1,286

20.2

35.1

2,068

1,414

1,736

1,517

1,200

1,370

45,000

1,990

85

363

268

271

304

374

108

150

281

282

226,873

9,007,659

104,979

150,962

73,824

77,138

119,132

2,755

210,960

6,985

369,758

3,360

1,616,441

1,142,802

79,450

394,189

1,552,520

6,419.3

12,569

123,450

3,320,490

4,530

297,980

2,729,709

2,497,236

17,145.0

16,496.0

649.0

27,550

36,026

889,632

164

29,974

4,242

2,508

457

8,500

14,400

58,336.6

6,818

462,713

4,206

23,294

17,985

417,228

1,942

12,498

6,100

4,153

23,652

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2001 2002 2003

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,462

2

996

12,221

95

373

56

9,428.7

82.5

28,000.0

6,569.6

134.0

55,000.0

2,433.3

1,001.8

150.0

21.2

830,000

49.5

338,500

161,000

305.0

1,049

2,427

1

828

12,487

97

420

70

8,592.1

90.1

19,000.0

7,144.0

99.0

45,500.0

2,575.4

911.5

158.0

15.9

1,060,000

18.0

178,400

300,000

282.0

1,356

2,111

984

11,319

106

356

59

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,052,990

31,992,360

2,025,470

182,110

1,311,200

564,540

3,876,930

24,426,280

16,889,740

1,177,240

6,359,300

590,440

317,680

77,300

549,570

1,380

88,630

29,849,130

1,046,120

5,650,520

5,551,940

98,580

577,860

8,700

777,850

122,500

89,440

530,140

6,390

35,530

25,170

463,050

39,340

2,176,830

31,979,410

1,953,840

1,229,450

3,824,730

24,968,160

17,931,000

1,146,490

5,890,670

505,460

503,430

29,616,020

1,018,600

5,768,050

5,687,110

80,940

566,280

616,260

6,070

34,800

37,840

1,673,390

28,050,280

3,031,130

26,101,290

9,362,500

16,738,790

849,040

89,030

1,297,840

115,740

2,953,830

142,450

18,541,680

11,999,460

1,093,880

5,448,340

515,980

284,900

70,820

524,760

1,250

79,320

29,202,430

892,340

5,023,540

4,925,480

98,060

550,780

415,250

174,130

4,690

698,860

113,190

84,580

2,510

130

11,860

32,460

516,260

6,350

34,840

23,920

451,150

7,280

33,710

170

25,718,860

891,940

168,960

5,990

33,910

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

2.95

8.16

31.42

5.25

7.15

4.18

2.04

0.70

7.37

1.53

3.18

21.40

2.37

2.59

1.98

1.97

1.36

1.12

0.79

2.87

1.64

1.70

2.54

1.27

0.74

0.73

1.44

45.38

78.70

2.32

1.58

1.95

1.70

1.35

1.54

50.44

2.23

0.10

40.65

30.03

30.32

34.11

41.95

0.12

16.82

31.45

31.63

4,939,580

228,805,080

95,235,350

136,950,420

66,972,010

69,978,420

1,729,200

62,480

9,568,990

177,430

9,392,290

3,048,140

43,992,310

31,101,970

2,162,270

10,728,070

704,210

5,823,490

319,270

56,000

1,506,150

2,050

135,160

74,290,500

1,132,730

3,732,880

3,591,580

141,300

24,992,940

32,682,240

403,530

7,440

1,359,600

192,410

113,760

20,730

3,860

6,530

26,460

3,090

20,988,310

190,780

1,056,600

815,790

18,925,140

880

566,900

2,770

188,380

1,072,840

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2001 2002 2003

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,233,490

1,810

903,560

11,086,700

86,180

338,380

50,800

4,276,790

74,810

12,700

5,959,840

121,560

24,950

1,103,730

908,800

136,080

19,230

376,480

44,910

153,540

73,030

276,690

5,240

2,201,740

910

751,150

11,328,020

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,897,310

81,770

8,620

6,480,930

89,810

20,640

1,168,180

826,850

143,340

14,380

480,810

16,330

80,920

136,080

255,830

6,780

1,915,070

892,670

10,268,420

96,160

322,960

53,520

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 12 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 13 NASS, USDA

March Weather Summary

Stormy weather across much of the West boosted soil moisture reserves and improved high-elevation snow

packs. Perhaps most noteworthy was the tremendous, but fairly localized, storm system that struck the central

Rockies and adjacent High Plains from March 17-19. Nevertheless, Western water-supply concerns persisted

due to the combination of near- to below-normal reservoir levels and prospects for below-normal spring and

summer runoff in most watersheds. Farther east, a variety of conditions existed on the Plains. In winter

wheat areas on the southern Plains, short-term precipitation deficits (3 months or less) were superimposed on

mostly favorable long-term moisture conditions. As a result, topsoil moisture depletion was apparent in parts

of northern Texas and western and central Oklahoma, although subsoil moisture remained generally adequate. 

Meanwhile, long-term drought persisted on the northern and central High Plains, despite near- to abovenormal precipitation during March. Similar variability was noted in the Midwest. Drier-than-normal weather

in the Ohio Valley followed previously wet conditions, while late-month precipitation elsewhere in the Corn

Belt moistened topsoils but failed to reverse long-term precipitation deficits. By month’s end, Midwestern

drought was most severe in a band from northern Missouri and southern Iowa to Lower Michigan, but was

also worsening across parts of the upper Midwest. Farther south, drier-than-normal weather favored an

acceleration of spring planting operations from the western Gulf Coast region to the Tennessee Valley,

including the Delta. In contrast, frequently heavy showers slowed fieldwork and caused lowland flooding in

the southern Atlantic States.

Significantly cooler-than-normal March weather (as much as 7 degrees F below normal) was confined to the

Nation’s northern tier from Montana to Maine. In contrast, monthly temperatures generally ranged from 3 to

7 degrees F above normal in Florida, where near-record to record warmth prevailed. Elsewhere, March

temperatures were slightly above normal in the Southeast and in a broad area from the West Coast to the

central High Plains, but near to slightly below normal from the Southwest to the Delta.

March Crop Summary

Temperatures fluctuated across the Nation during March, with record highs and record lows reported. 

Temperatures in the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, Great Lakes region, and Northeast were

generally below normal while temperatures in the rest of the country ranged from near to slightly above

normal. Periods of warmer than usual weather across much of the country were followed by ice storms in the

southern Great Plains, and snow storms in the Rockies, Great Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Seasonally

heavy precipitation in the low, coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest alleviated dry soil conditions. 

Abnormally dry soil conditions remained across much of the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and Great Plains

regions. Snowpack measurements were below normal in most locations, even though a significant mid-March

storm greatly increased snowpack measurements in the central Rocky Mountains.

The northern and central Great Plains, upper and middle Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes region

experienced drier than normal conditions with little snowcover. Due to the lack of snowcover, winter wheat

and alfalfa in the northern and central Great Plains were exposed to wind-blown soil and extreme temperature

fluctuations. In the Corn Belt, conditions were warmer than average. Precipitation was below normal across

most of the Corn Belt, the Ohio Valley, and eastern Great Lakes region. Precipitation was above normal in

Florida and the Southeast. 

In California, warm weather and ample moisture supplies stimulated development of crops. Field and orchard

work progressed with few interruptions. Pastures were in good overall condition, with the best conditions

reported in the northern half of the State. Many Florida citrus growers irrigated on a rotating basis to

maintain soil moisture and ensure good tree condition during the bloom cycle. Soil moisture supplies were

rated mostly adequate to short. In southern Florida, the sugarcane harvest and work in vegetable fields

continued with few delays.

The Nation’s winter wheat condition was rated as 3 percent very poor, 11 percent poor, 35 percent fair,

43 percent good, and 8 percent excellent on March 30. Warmer weather and rain showers combined to help

the wheat crop begin its spring "green up" in the middle Mississippi Valley. Warm weather in the northern

Great Plains allowed the crop to progress ahead of last year’s pace.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 14 NASS, USDA

On March 30, one percent of the oat crop was planted, compared with 3 percent planted at this time last year,

and behind the 4 percent 5-year average. Dry weather favored seedbed preparation across the northern Corn

Belt and adjacent parts of the Great Plains, but planting was just getting underway. 

Seven percent of the rice crop was planted by the end of March, 1 percentage point behind last year and equal

to the 5-year average. Rice planting progressed in Louisiana, advancing 16 points during the last week of

March. Despite this progress, planting remained behind last year and the 5-year average. Wet weather

delayed planting in interior areas of the Mississippi Delta. Planting progressed in Texas, but wet field

conditions delayed some producers.

Ten percent of the sorghum acreage was planted, compared with 12 percent at this time last year, and

1 percentage point behind the 5-year average for this date. In Texas, land preparations continued in drier

locations, but were slowed in areas where rain fell. Early planted fields continued to emerge and benefit from

good moisture levels.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.11 million tons, virtually unchanged from

the March forecast but 13 percent lower than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is estimated

at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 14 percent below last

season. The all white grapefruit forecast remains at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), 15 percent below last

season. The colored grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), unchanged

from the previous forecast but 14 percent less than the previous season. Fruit size is average, unchanged from

March, but fruit loss from droppage has increased slightly. California’s grapefruit forecast remains

unchanged at 5.60 million boxes (188,000 tons) but 7 percent less than last season’s final utilization. Exterior

quality is good with excellent color. Flavor and eating quality are also excellent. The Texas grapefruit

forecast is 5.50 million boxes (220,000 boxes), 2 percent less than the previous forecast and 7 percent lower

than last season. Harvest is progressing, however, a quarantine on fresh fruit movement has been imposed on

areas in the Rio Grande Valley because of the emergence of the Sapote fruit fly. Arizona’s grapefruit forecast

remains at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), 37 percent less than last season’s final utilization. Good size and

excellent quality are reported.

Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 356,000 tons, up 2 percent from the previous

forecast but 15 percent below last season’s utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida’s is up 4 percent, at

5.20 million boxes (247,000 tons) but 21 percent lower than last season’s utilization. Harvest of the early

varieties is complete while the late season Honey variety harvest continued. The 2002-03 Florida tangerine

forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and

Dancy varieties as in previous seasons. This program change was implemented because of the

declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by the Florida Citrus Commission. 

California’s forecast of tangerine production at 2.50 million boxes (94,000 tons), is unchanged from the

January forecast but 14 percent above last season’s utilized production. No major problems have been

reported to date. Shape is normal with overall quality and flavor reported as very good. The Arizona

tangerine forecast of 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons) is down 11 percent from the previous forecast and

35 percent below last season. Fruit size is average with fair quality reported.

Lemons: The 2002-03 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 984,000 tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous

forecast and 19 percent above last season. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes

(874,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 21 percent above the 2001-02 season. Harvest is

underway in all areas of the State. Fruit quality is good but quality in some areas has suffered because of

wind damage. The 2002-03 Arizona lemon forecast is 2.90 million boxes (110,000 tons), up 4 percent from

both the previous forecast and last season. Harvest is continuing with fair quality and large fruit size reported.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2002-03 tangelo forecast is final at 2.35 million boxes (106,000 tons), down 2 percent

from the previous month but 9 percent more than last season’s utilized production. Utilization is higher than

the previous three seasons, but below any others since 1968-69.

Temples: Florida’s Temples are forecast at 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season, down

7 percent from March and 16 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would be the second lowest
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 15 NASS, USDA

utilization in the series since it began in 1951-52. The 2000-01 utilized production, at 1.25 million boxes, is

the smallest crop on record.

K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has

been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have been discontinued.

Florida Citrus: Rainfall during March was plentiful, resulting in most of Florida’s citrus producing counties

reporting above average rainfall and excellent surface soil moisture. Virtually all healthy citrus trees are in

very good condition. Cold weather in January and February resulted in citrus trees reaching near ideal

physical condition for the bloom period. Warm, moist weather launched the bloom cycle into full swing the

first two weeks of March with bloom tapering off the latter part of the month. This year’s bloom is observed

as one of the most prolific blooms in recent history. Harvest of early and midseason oranges is virtually

complete. Some picking crews were switched to harvest Valencia oranges for both fresh and processing

markets with other crews moved to harvest grapefruit on the lower east coast. Temple and tangelo harvest is

virtually complete. Several fresh fruit packinghouses and juice plants closed in early March due to lack of

mature fruit. These plants reopened at the end of the month as Valencia oranges became available. 

Caretakers have been very busy mowing, chopping, and discing cover crops to help generate new growth and

bloom during the month. Post bloom nutritional sprays were being applied in groves with complete petal

drop. Hedging and topping were reported throughout the State in groves where harvest was complete.

Texas Citrus: Harvest is well underway for all citrus. Fruit quality is good but some oversized fruit is poorly

shaped. Postharvest decay is also being reported. Movement of fresh oranges and grapefruit in parts of the

Rio Grande Valley is limited due to a quarantine resulting from the discovery of the Sapote fruit fly.

California Citrus: Navel orange harvest continued throughout the month. Quality remained good, but some

quality decline occurred due to puff, crease, high color, soft fruit, and rind staining. Harvest of early variety

Valencia oranges began in some areas of the Central Valley. Marsh Ruby and Rio Red grapefruit were

harvested in the desert areas, while the Pummelo harvest continued in the Central Valley. Lemons were

picked throughout the month. Irrigation, pruning, soil amendments, and foliar nutrient applications were

underway in some harvested citrus groves.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities, including fungicide, insecticide, and

herbicide applications, irrigation, and cultivation, continued in many tree fruit orchards. Bloom continued

throughout March in late variety stone fruit orchards. Developing fruit were visible in many early variety

stone fruit orchards by the end of the month. Rainfall in parts of the Central Valley during early March

knocked off some blooms. A few growers in the Central Valley began thinning fruit in apricot and plum

orchards. Girdling activities were also undertaken in a few plum orchards to improve fruit size. Central

Valley apple, cherry, and pear orchards began showing blooms by month’s end. Swelling buds and newly

opened green shoots appeared in many grape vineyards by mid-month as vines responded to the warm, sunny

weather. Many growers cultivated and irrigated vineyards to avoid potential damage from cold nighttime

temperatures. Removal of vineyards and planting of new tree fruit orchards continued across the State. 

Strawberry fields in the Central Valley were in full bloom by month’s end. Fruit set appeared good. Pruning

and brush shredding continued in olive orchards. Buds were forming in many avocado orchards. Most

almond orchards were fully leafed and developing well by month’s end. Early variety walnut orchards started

to leaf out and develop flower clusters during the last week in March. Blight spray treatments continued in

walnut orchards.

Winter Potatoes: Production of 2003 winter potatoes in California and Florida combined for an estimated

4.15 million cwt, the same as the January forecast but 1 percent below last year. Area for harvest, at

14,800 acres, is down 6 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 281 cwt per acre, is up 13 cwt from a

year ago.

Since the January forecast, a 15 percent gain in California’s yield per acre was offset by fewer acres for

harvest and lower yields in Florida. California winter harvest has made normal progress with no setbacks

from weather or pests. The Florida acreage estimate was reduced by 700 acres from the January total while

March rains contributed to reduced average yield.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 16 NASS, USDA

Spring Potatoes: Spring production in 2003 is forecast at 23.7 million cwt, up 2 percent from last year. 

Area for harvest is estimated at 83,800 acres, down 3 percent from 2002. The average yield is forecast at

282 cwt per acre, up 11 cwt from a year ago.

Spring potato production in Florida is forecast at 7.82 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year ago. Total

spring harvested acreage is up 4 percent but average yield is 14 cwt per acre below last year. Warm

temperatures in February and March helped crop development although frequent March rains have reduced

yield potential in some fields. Harvest is expected to begin in 2 to 3 weeks. North Carolina’s spring potato

crop is forecast at 2.81 million cwt, down 21 percent from last year. Wet soils have delayed planting with

about 78 percent of the crop in the ground as of April 6 compared with a 5 year average of 96 percent. Area

for harvest is expected to be down 19 percent from a year ago, with yields falling an average of 5 cwt per

acre. Some of the early planted fields have emerged. 

Texas producers report near perfect weather so far this season. Spring potato production is forecast at

3.00 million cwt, up 47 percent from last season. Acreage for harvest has increased 4 percent and the average

yield is expected to gain 70 cwt per acre. Arizona growers report a 3 percent increase in acreage for harvest

and expect a 10 cwt per acre yield increase over last year. Production is forecast at 2.24 million cwt, up

6 percent from last year. California’s spring production forecast, at 7.79 million cwt, is 1 percent above last

year. Yield is forecast at 410 cwt per acre, up 5 cwt from a year ago.

Summer Potatoes, 2002 Revisions: The final estimate of 2002 crop summer potato production is

18.0 million cwt, down 3 percent from the preliminary estimate in the January Annual Crop Production

Summary, and 1 percent below 2001. Harvested area covered 59,100 acres, down 1 percent from the January

estimate, but up 1 percent from 2001. The average yield of 304 cwt per acre is down 5 cwt from the January

preliminary estimate.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 4.02 million pounds for March, up 6 percent from

last month and 19 percent above a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,255 acres, 8 percent above February 2003

but 9 percent below last March. Harvested area totaled 1,735 acres, up 15 percent from last month but

10 percent below March 2002. Weather conditions in March were mostly dry with only light scattered

showers occurring.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 17 NASS, USDA

Reliability of April 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and

the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit

droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas

conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also

conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September’s Citrus

Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season,

including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for

recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. This means that

chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate

by more than 3.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not

exceed 5.2 percent. 

Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

184,000 tons, ranging from 1,000 tons to 716,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the

final estimate 8 times and above 12 times. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year

are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2003 18 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234

Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum,

 Sugar Crops (202) 690-8140

Terry O’Connor - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-4288

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on May 12, 2003.

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