Cr Pr 2-2 (3-02)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released March 8, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Unchanged from February 1 Forecast

The U.S. all orange March 1 forecast for the 2001-02 crop is 12.4 million tons, unchanged from the

February 1 forecast but up fractionally from last season’s final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is

228 million boxes (10.3 million tons), the same as the February 1 forecast but up 2 percent from the previous

season. The forecast for Florida’s early and midseason variety oranges remains at 128 million boxes

(5.76 million tons) and, if realized, will be the same utilization as last season. The harvest of the early and

midseason oranges is nearly complete with 95 percent of the crop picked. Florida’s Valencia forecast is

100 million boxes (4.50 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent higher than last

season’s final utilization. Fruit size and loss from droppage continue to be below average. Arizona,

California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield is projected at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees

Brix, unchanged from February’s projection and the same yield as last season. The early and midseason

portion is projected to yield 1.52 gallons per box and the Valencia portion is projected to yield 1.68 gallons

per box. Both of these yields are the same as projected last month. All projections of yield assume that the

processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on March 8, 2002.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Keith J. Collins

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................ 5

Crop Comments ....................................................................... 13

Crop Summary ......................................................................... 6

Information Contacts ................................................................... 17

Papayas ............................................................................... 4

Reliability ............................................................................ 16

Sugarcane ............................................................................. 4

Weather Maps ........................................................................ 12

Weather Summary ..................................................................... 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2000-2001

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

436.0

30.2

465.0

45.5

976.7

18.0

1.8

35.0

0.8

55.6

454.0

32.0

500.0

46.3

1,032.3

446.0

21.4

460.0

44.5

971.9

19.0

1.8

35.0

1.5

57.3

465.0

23.2

495.0

46.0

1,029.2

37.5

78.3

29.7

38.8

35.1

38.4

38.0

29.7

30.0

32.8

37.5

76.0

29.7

38.6

35.0

35.1

89.5

30.0

33.0

33.8

38.3

31.5

30.0

25.0

32.7

35.2

85.0

30.0

32.8

33.7

16,350

2,365

13,811

1,765

34,291

691

68

1,040

24

1,823

17,041

2,433

14,851

1,789

36,114

15,655

1,915

13,800

1,469

32,839

728

57

1,050

38

1,873

16,383

1,972

14,850

1,507

34,712

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the 2001 Crop Production Summary.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2001 2002

2001 2002 2001 2002

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jan

Feb

2,690

2,630

2,575

2,555

1,870

1,845

1,865

1,860

4,930

4,040

3,285

3,135

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1999-2000, 2000-2001 and Forecasted March 1, 2002 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 Other 5

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus

 FL

600

40,000

134,000

1,460

176,060

500

24,000

99,000

200

123,700

1,100

64,000

233,000

1,660

299,760

1,950

20,900

31,900

600

450

7,200

53,400

5,930

66,980

850

2,500

7,000

10,350

3,100

19,000

22,100

2,200

110

480

36,000

128,000

2,000

166,480

420

23,000

95,300

235

118,955

900

59,000

223,300

2,235

285,435

1,250

18,700

27,300

250

6,500

46,000

7,200

59,950

650

2,100

5,600

8,350

3,600

22,700

26,300

2,100

40

350

32,000

128,000

1,700

162,050

350

22,000

100,000

200

122,550

700

54,000

228,000

1,900

284,600

1,500

19,000

28,000

200

6,200

47,000

7,300

60,700

650

2,300

6,400

9,350

3,100

22,000

25,100

2,200

30

22

1,500

6,030

62

7,614

19

900

4,455

9

5,383

41

2,400

10,485

71

12,997

88

888

1,356

25

15

241

2,269

237

2,762

32

94

332

458

118

722

840

99

5

18

1,350

5,760

85

7,213

16

862

4,289

10

5,177

34

2,212

10,049

95

12,390

56

795

1,160

8

218

1,955

288

2,469

24

79

266

369

137

863

1,000

95

2

13

1,200

5,760

72

7,045

13

825

4,500

9

5,347

26

2,025

10,260

81

12,392

68

808

1,190

7

208

1,998

292

2,505

24

86

304

414

118

836

954

99

1

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early

Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5 "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01

crop. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

4,967.0

75,752.0

4,403.0

650.0

3,335.0

1,328.0

10,252.0

59,617.0

41,078.0

2,910.0

15,629.0

1,494.0

585.0

45.8

1,543.0

3.7

188.0

74,105.0

2,653.0

15,787.8

15,527.0

260.8

1,371.1

15.9

1,429.9

211.8

201.0

1,267.1

16.8

78.3

60.9

1,111.1

97.9

41,031.0

13.8

4,289.0

68,808.0

6,148.0

63,511.0

23,812.0

39,699.0

1,905.0

580.0

3,314.0

255.0

8,584.0

336.0

48,653.0

31,295.0

2,789.0

14,569.0

1,455.0

578.0

44.2

1,400.5

3.1

177.0

73,000.0

2,580.0

13,810.0

13,551.0

259.0

1,243.7

1,029.2

432.6

7.1

1,243.0

196.8

197.0

6.3

0.4

35.9

78.5

1,241.3

14.0

76.2

58.6

1,092.5

19.5

93.5

0.4

13.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.2

138.2

16.6

2.47

3.37

1.93

61.3

33.2

6,429

27.3

59.9

11.1

40.2

43.5

30.0

35.2

1,374

19.8

930

3,027

1,306

1,365

39.6

1,349

698

687

1,257

20.7

33.7

2,314

1,366

1,572

1,920

1,471

1,210

45,000

1,861

81

358

294

286

309

367

105

154

288

249,590

9,506,840

102,352

156,703

80,266

76,437

116,856

19,250

213,045

6,971

514,524

3,728

1,957,643

1,361,479

83,556

512,608

1,998,515

7,533.0

11,455

41,106

4,239,450

4,050

241,665

2,890,572

3,480,696

20,084.0

19,406.0

678.0

25,754

34,712

1,000,936

97

19,541

3,779

2,898

640

7,600

16,200

66,832.1

6,343

444,766

4,115

21,814

18,110

400,727

2,052

14,355

6,400

3,888

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2000 2001 2002

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lb

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,762

5

840

12,997

99

458

88

10,663.7

96.9

29,000.0

7,688.0

53.0

54,500.0

2,599.9

967.2

219.0

23.9

703,000

22.5

209,850

243,000

239.0

1,231

2,469

2

1,000

12,390

95

369

56

9,435.2

82.3

28,000.0

6,521.2

134.0

55,000.0

2,437.4

970.8

148.0

20.8

850,000

48.0

315,000

161,000

305.0

1,049

2,505

1

954

12,392

99

414

68

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,010,100

30,656,080

1,781,850

263,050

1,349,640

537,430

4,148,880

24,126,400

16,623,860

1,177,650

6,324,900

604,610

236,740

18,530

624,440

1,500

76,080

29,989,550

1,073,640

6,389,160

6,283,620

105,540

554,870

6,430

578,670

85,710

81,340

512,780

6,800

31,690

24,650

449,650

39,620

16,604,840

5,580

1,735,720

27,845,910

2,488,030

25,702,270

9,636,480

16,065,790

770,930

234,720

1,341,140

103,200

3,473,860

135,980

19,689,380

12,664,770

1,128,680

5,895,930

588,820

233,910

17,890

566,770

1,250

71,630

29,542,370

1,044,100

5,588,770

5,483,950

104,810

503,310

416,510

175,090

2,870

503,030

79,640

79,720

2,550

150

14,530

31,770

502,340

5,670

30,840

23,710

442,120

7,890

37,840

180

5,460

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.13

8.67

37.32

5.53

7.56

4.32

2.20

1.86

7.21

1.72

3.76

24.87

2.71

2.93

2.01

2.37

1.54

1.24

1.04

3.39

1.46

1.53

2.66

1.51

0.78

0.77

1.41

46.42

75.61

2.59

1.53

1.76

2.15

1.65

1.35

50.44

2.09

0.09

40.16

32.94

32.09

34.64

41.11

0.12

17.21

32.28

5,434,180

241,484,860

92,852,170

142,158,570

72,816,090

69,342,480

1,696,160

436,580

9,663,560

177,070

13,069,510

3,381,980

53,278,310

37,053,390

2,274,020

13,950,900

906,510

6,833,820

290,970

18,650

1,922,980

1,840

109,620

78,668,480

1,578,820

4,372,780

4,225,160

147,620

23,363,640

31,490,200

454,020

4,400

886,360

171,410

131,450

29,030

3,450

7,350

30,310

2,880

20,174,250

186,650

989,470

821,460

18,176,670

930

651,130

2,900

176,360

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2000 2001 2002

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,505,640

4,540

762,040

11,790,680

89,810

415,490

79,830

4,836,970

87,910

13,150

6,974,410

48,080

24,720

1,179,290

877,380

198,670

21,680

318,880

20,410

95,190

110,220

216,820

6,150

2,239,840

1,810

907,180

11,240,020

86,180

334,750

50,800

4,279,740

74,630

12,700

5,915,930

121,560

24,950

1,105,590

880,700

134,260

18,870

385,550

43,540

142,880

73,030

276,690

5,240

2,272,500

910

865,450

11,241,830

89,810

375,570

61,690

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 12 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 13 NASS, USDA

February Weather Summary

February featured weather strikingly similar to January’s pattern, highlighted by an early-month cold snap and

a long spell of mild conditions thereafter, followed by a major late-month storm system and cold outbreak. In

California and Arizona, dry weather favored fieldwork but increased stress on pastures and dryland small

grains. Meanwhile, high-elevation snow packs remained significantly below normal across the central and

southern Rockies and the Southwest, increasing concerns about summer water supplies. Snow packs

remained mostly above normal in the Northwest, still recovering from the drought of 2000-01, despite a lack

of February storminess. Farther east, mostly dry, breezy weather and temperature extremes continued to

stress the High Plains’ winter wheat crop. Areas from Montana to western Nebraska remained especially dry

for most of February, having been bypassed by a late-January snow and ice storm. At month’s end, some of

the coldest air of the season swept across the Plains, accompanied and trailed by a widespread snowfall that

provided much-needed moisture and insulation for wheat. However, the storm system bypassed the southern

High Plains’ wheat crop, which was exposed to potentially damaging temperatures as low as 0 degrees F. 

The suddenly cold, snowy weather pattern persisted into early March across most of the Plains and Midwest,

providing beneficial soil moisture recharge but stressing livestock and hampering rural travel. Meanwhile

across the South and East, dryness intensified across southern Texas and much of the middle and southern

Atlantic regions. Limited relief from long-term drought was noted in the Northeast.

February Crop Summary

Soil moisture reserves remained very low across most of the Great Plains during February. In the southern

Great Plains, an early month storm produced beneficial precipitation across a large portion of the region. 

However, dry weather prevailed the remainder of the month. In the central and northern Great Plains,

precipitation was scattered and light. Parts of the northern High Plains received virtually no precipitation

during the month. In addition to excessive dryness, winter wheat fields were exposed to wide temperature

fluctuations, including several days of record and near record highs as well as periods of bitter cold. 

Wind-blown soil also contributed to harsh conditions on the Plains.

In the Southeast, early-month storms provided enough moisture to support current development of winter

grains and forages in most areas, but precipitation was well below normal during the month and soil moisture

reserves for spring and summer crop requirements remained very low. Periods of cold weather, including

overnight lows that fell below freezing, frequently penetrated into the Southeast during February. For the

month, temperatures averaged below-normal along the Gulf Coast and adjacent interior areas of the

Southeast, Mississippi Delta, and southern Great Plains. The cold weather limited vegetative growth of

winter crops, but also reduced soil moisture losses. The cold weather also provided beneficial chill hours for

fruit orchards throughout the Southeast. In Florida, vegetable and fruit producers ran irrigation and wind

machines to protect tender vegetation from periods of sub-freezing cold. Although some leafy new growth

was lost in citrus groves, tree and fruit damage was minimized. After mid-month, field tillage and

preparations for the spring planting season gradually increased throughout the southern States.

In the Pacific Northwest, the seasonal stormy pattern briefly abated near mid-month and again at the end of

the month. As a result, monthly snowfall in the Cascade, Sierra, and interior Rocky Mountain ranges was

below normal in most areas and well below normal in many areas. Dry weather also prevailed in California,

permitting nearly uninterrupted work in fields and orchards. Temperatures averaged near normal in

California’s valleys, but periods of sub-freezing night time temperatures required protective measures. 

Meanwhile, favorably warm day time temperatures contributed to vigorous growth of winter vegetable, grain,

and forage crops.

In the Corn Belt, temperatures averaged above normal and included several record and near record highs. 

Parts of the northern and western Corn Belt also experienced brief periods of sub-zero temperatures, once

early in the month and again near the end of the month. Precipitation was below normal across most of the

Corn Belt, although the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region were wetter-than-normal. Despite

the low precipitation total during February, soil moisture reserves were mostly adequate.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2001 is estimated at 34.7 million tons, slightly

below the February 1 forecast and 4 percent below last year’s record high of 36.1 million tons. Acres

harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed is estimated at 1.03 million for the 2001 crop year, slightly
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 14 NASS, USDA

less than last year’s harvested acres. Yield is estimated at 33.7 tons per acre, down 0.1 ton from February and

1.3 tons below the 2000 crop.

In Louisiana, acres harvested for sugar and seed, at 495,000, is 1 percent below last year’s record high

acreage of 500,000 and is the first year-to-year reduction in harvested acres since 1996. In Florida, acres

harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed is 2 percent above the 2000 level and 1 percent above the

previous record high of 460,000 acres set in 1999.

Heavy rain interrupted harvest in Florida near mid-February. Also, cold weather extended into Florida near

the end of February, but damaging sub-freezing temperatures remained well north of the sugarcane producing

region.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.14 million pounds for February 2002, down

5 percent from last month and 22 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,555 acres, 1 percent

lower than last month and 3 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area, at 1,860 acres, is virtually

unchanged from a month ago but up 1 percent from February 2001. Weather conditions for February were

variable with sunshine and sometimes heavy rain. Cool temperatures have slowed fruit maturation.

Grapefruit: The 2001-02 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.51 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast

but 1 percent higher than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast continues at 47.0 million boxes

(2.00 million tons), the same as last month but 2 percent above last season’s final utilization. Fruit sizes are

equal to the smallest recorded level in the 10-season series and loss from droppage is slightly below average. 

The all white grapefruit forecast remains at 19.0 million boxes (808,000 tons), unchanged from February but

2 percent more than the previous season. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 28.0 million boxes

(1.19 million tons), the same as the February 1 forecast but 3 percent more than the previous season. 

Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2001-02 tangelo forecast is reduced to 2.20 million boxes (99,000 tons), down 4 percent

from the February 1 forecast but 5 percent more than last season’s utilized production. The downward

adjustment is based on the estimated utilization to date and the declining weekly use. Approximately

30 percent of the crop remains to be harvested.

Tangerines: The U.S. tangerine forecast for March 1 is unchanged at 414,000 tons. If realized, it will be

12 percent higher than last season’s utilization of 369,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine forecast is maintained at

6.40 million boxes (304,000 tons), the same as last month but 14 percent higher than last season. Harvest of

the late season Honey variety is more than 60 percent complete. Fruit size is larger than average and loss

from droppage is well below the loss that usually occurs by this time of the season. Arizona and California

tangerine forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts.

Temples: Florida’s 2001-02 Temple forecast is 1.50 million boxes (68,000 tons), up 7 percent from the

previous forecast. If realized, it will be the second smallest crop ever recorded, but 20 percent higher than the

record low 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons) utilized last season. Average fruit size is the smallest in the

10-season series but loss from droppage is below normal.

K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2001-02 remains at 30,000 boxes (1,350 tons),

unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 10,000 boxes fewer than last season. If realized, this will be the

smallest crop of record.

Florida Citrus: February was wetter than normal in Florida’s citrus belt. This moisture provided ideal

conditions for the upcoming bloom period. Temperatures were cool with a few mornings in the lower thirties. 

There was no serious damage to citrus from the weather. Citrus trees are covered with feathery new growth

and bloom buds of all sizes. A few trees in the southern part of the State are in full bloom. 

Picking crews shifted to the late season Valencia oranges as harvest of early and midseason oranges slowed

towards the end of the month. Grapefruit, Temples, and Honey tangerines were also shipped fresh or sent to

the juice plants. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 15 NASS, USDA

Caretakers have been fertilizing prior to the bloom period. Hedging and topping of harvested groves

continues in all areas. Dead trees are being pushed out and burned. There have been many reports of newly

planted trees in the southern counties.

California Citrus: The navel orange harvest continued throughout February. Sprays to control fungus were

applied in some areas. The Valencia orange harvest began near the middle of the month. Grapefruit picking

was ongoing in the desert and in the San Joaquin Valley. Lemons and Minneola tangelos were also picked

throughout the month.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating,

irrigating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. New orchards and vineyards were

planted where older plantings had been removed. Crews continued to prune and tie grape vines throughout

February. Grape growers also shredded brush, mowed cover crops, fertilized, and applied herbicides to

vineyards. Unseasonably warm weather throughout the month initiated the bloom on early and midseason

tree fruit varieties. Almond orchards were in bloom and weather conditions were optimal for pollination. 

Bloom sprays were applied in a few orchards by month’s end. Bloom began in some avocado orchards during

the last week of February. Strawberry fields were also blooming in some locations.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 16 NASS, USDA

Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which

produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of

fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted

to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a

quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California,

and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the

Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published

March 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September’s Citrus Fruits Summary. 

The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from

marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root

Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast

relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from

those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.6 percent. However, if you exclude the

six freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 3.1 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the

current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.6 percent, or

3.1 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will

not exceed 6.3 percent, or 5.5 percent excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

249,000 tons (216,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for

oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 6 times and above 8 times, excluding

freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate

final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2002 17 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye, Hay, Sorghum (202) 720-8068

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops,

Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Jim Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-2127

Debbie Flippin - Fresh Vegetables, Mushrooms (202) 720-3250

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288

Jim Smith - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Peas (202) 720-2127

Jim Smith - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

Tobacco (202) 720-2127

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 10, 2002.

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