Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes,
11 Major States, 1993-94 Crop

State
Percent

co 7 5 93 95
10 7 5 93 95
ME : 1 79 75 21 24
MI : 2 3 65 67 33 30
MN : 23 25 37 33 40 42
NY : 100 100

ND : 18 20 62 56 20 24
OR : 1 1 21 20 78 79
PA : 100 100

WA 4 3 4 45 15 82 81
WI 12 10 26 31 62 59
11 State Avg. 6 6 30 27 64 67

1/ Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s)
constituting less than 1 percent of state's total.

Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes,
by State and Total, 1993-94 1/

1993 Crop 1994 Crop
State : Entered for : : Percent : Entered for
: Certification Certified : Certification
cette eee ee Percent Acres
CA : 1,000
co : 10,800 92 10,900
1D : 45,000 99 53,315
ME : 25,988 109 27,881
MI : 3,100 75 3.000
MN : 22,569 69 21,896
MT : 8,511 101 8,900
NE H 5,782 139 N/A
NY : 1,822 101 1,978
ND : 28,899 89 31,873
OR : 3,250 94 2,800
PA : 242 101 238
SD : 1,800 102 1,522
UT : 233 59 N/A
WA : 2,056 99 2,312
WI : 10,100 104 10,700
Total : 170,152 96 178,315
i/ Data supplied by State seed certification officials.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1994 A-20 NASS, USDA


Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts:

Crop and State

Total Production by Crop, State.
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

000
000
000
000

000
600

800

400

000

1992
Grapes (Table Type) :
CA : 645,
Grapes (Wine Type) :
CA : 2,145,
Grapes (Raisin Type) 1/ :
CA : 2,670,
All Grapes :
CA : 5,460,
Apricots 2/ :
CA : 99,
UT :
WA : 6
US : 106,
Walnuts :
CA : 203,
Almonds (Shelled Basis)
CA : 548,

1993 1994
Tons
630,000 630,000
2.345.000 2,400,000
2,410,000 2,400,000
5,385,000 5,430,000
88.000 130,000
250 500
8,100 7,300
96,350 137,800
260.000 260,000
1,000 Pounds
490,000 640,000

l/ Fresh Basis.
2/ Includes unharvested production and
U.S. 1992-100; 1993-10.

Crop Production

July 1994 A-

harvested not sold (tons):

14

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


June Weather Summary: Two heat waves dominated the Nation's weather. The

first took hold at mid-month over the eastern Corn Belt
and the Middle Atlantic States, and lasted for a little over a week. Crops were
stressed by temperatures as high as the middle to upper 90's, but the heat’s
timing (prior to reproduction for corn and soybeans® allowed plants to flourish
once rain and cooler weather returned late in the month. The latter heat wave
developed about June 24 across the Southwest and the southern Plains, and
persisted into early July. Aside from increased irrigation demand. the primary
agricultural impact was on cotton, which was stressed by all-time record heat
(temperatures as high as the middle 110’s) in the Texas plains.

Monthly temperatures averaged at least 4 degrees F above normal across the
Southwest and throughout the central and southern High Plains. Scattered areas
with departures of at least +4 degrees F also stretched from the Ozarks into the
Northeast. Temperatures averaged near normal in the Northwest, due to the
position of the jet stream, and in the Southeast, due to cloud cover and
rainfall.

In the Southeast, rainfall was welcomed after a dry spring and a drought during
the 1993 growing season. In fact, it was the wettest June on record in
Greenville, SC (10.12 inches). Farther north. pockets of dryness lingered by
month's end in the eastern Corn Belt and the Middle Atlantic region, but
conditions nevertheless improved after the mid-month heat wave. The western Corn
Belt remained well-watered, and the central Plains’ wheat harvest progressed
under generally dry conditions. Torrid. dry weather dominated the Southwest,
except for a brief period prior to the late-month heat wave, when seasonal
(monsoonal) rains spread into parts of Arizona and New Mexico. Above-normal
precipitation covered much of the Nation’s northern tier.

The preponderance of warmth during June re-scripted the record books in numerous
locations. Washington, DC, endured a June-record of 14 consecutive 90 degrees F
days between June 13 and 26. Baltimore, MD, had its hottest June (average
temperature of 77.2 degrees F) and set an all-time June record (101 degrees F on
June 15). It was also the warmest June on record in locations such as
Philadelphia, PA, Newark, NJ. Portland. ME, and Denver, CO. After persistently
cool weather during the summers of 1992 and 1993, many observing stations from
the central Plains to the Great Lakes States notched their hottest readings
since 1991, including Scottsbluff. NE (100 degrees F on June 13) and Sault
Sainte Marie, MI (90 degrees F on June 17).

Meanwhile, a cool snap was affecting the Northwestern States. Frost was
reported in agricultural valleys and plains from Washington to Montana. On June
15, lows included 35 degrees F in Yakima, WA, and 33 degrees F in Great Falls,
MT. Pocatello, ID, recorded 34 degrees F on June 17. Up to a half-foot of snow
blanketed the highest elevations of Wyoming's Big Horn range.

Only a few days later, the ridge of high pressure that settled over the
Southwest on June 23 contained some of the continent's hottest air on record.
Readings of 128 degrees F on June 29 in Lake Havasu City, AZ, and Death Valley,
CA, broke the existing June record for the United States. Besides Arizona,
State records fell in New Mexico (119 degrees F at Lakewood on June 27) and
Nevada (125 degrees F in Laughlin on June 29). In southwestern Oklahoma on June
27, a reading of 120 degrees 4 miles South of Tipton tied the State record.
Midland, TX (116 degrees F), Lubbock, TX (114 degrees F), and Roswell, NM

(114 degrees F) broke existing station records by 4 degrees F each.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-4 NASS. USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1993 and Forecasted July 1, 1994
(Metric Units)

:Yield per Hectare: Production
Crop Pearse erec sre cee Fort r rcs r tests stress sneer sees
: : >: dun 1, >: Juli,
1993: 2994 : 1993 : 1994 : 1994
Metric Tons

Oats 1.95 2.15 2,993,750 3,601,900
Barley 3.17 3.19 8,713,870 8,834,860
All Wheat : 2,58 2.63 65,373,230 65,844,220

Winter 2 2.71 2.69 48,148,590 45,574,140 45,134,960

Ourum > 2.26 2.58 1,875,860 2,752,280

Other Spring > 2.26 2.49 15,348,780 17,956,980
Summer Potatoes : 25.82 26.55 932,220 979,080
Flue-cured Tobacco :

Types 11-14 : 2,48 2,50 402,290 375,280
Peaches : 1,205,010 968.420 1,122,100
Apricots : 87,410 125,010
Almonds (CA) : 222.260 290,300 290,300
Walnuts (CA) : 235,870 235,870
Citrus Fruits L/ : 1992-93 1993-94 1993-94

Oranges : 9,968,150 9,374,850 9,308,620

Grapefruit : 2,531,950 2,400,410 2,405,850

Lemons : 843,680 899.930 899,930

1/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 A-5 NASS. USDA



Report Features

The next “Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on
August 11, 1994.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice (202) 720-9526
Greg Preston - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621
Greg Preston - Sugar, Tobacco, Hay (202) 720-7621
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068

Charles Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Stephen Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Jim Brewster - Fruits, Fresh Vegetables (202) 720-7688
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285
Kirby Cavett - Peanuts (202) 720-8843
Roger Latham - Cotton (202) 720-5944
David Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-6054
Blair Smith - Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 720-5412

Program Changes

Apples: The July forecast of production was discontinued. The first forecast
of apple production will be as of August 1, 1994.

Tart Cherries: The July forecast of production was discontinued. The only
forecast of tart cherry production for all States is in the
June 30, "Cherry Production” report.

Sweet Cherries: The July forecast of production was discontinued. The last
forecast of sweet cherry production for all States is included
in the June 30 “Cherry Production” report.

Nectarines: The July forecast of production in California was discontinued.
Nectarines will be estimated only at the end of the season.

Plums and Prunes: The July forecast for these two California crops was
discontinued. Plums will be estimated only at the end of
the season. Prune production is forecast only in June.

Coffee: The August “Crop Production” report will include revisions of the
1993-94 Hawaii coffee crop.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-15 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

Yy] July 2, 1994
j a ’ UPDATED WEEKLY
ABNORMALLY *, TavoRaLY ravonantt
iS DRY ~ wi
(EE ran . A
w=: + AN Vs
only SEVERELY A
} RY: py = -
or sce 5 seu S
I ay qiry
DRY a “ Bo yy
Ven SCIGHTLY N
ss ¢ DRY 1
ABNORM: ¥ ~“ ne cae
a} rw]
ifortas oe Eee an ST \ we .
=i if > akonants SOY
sven ~
= 1 Ct
FF H!
Lasntat soa

NOAAAISDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _ Basedon preliminary reports

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-1 NASS, USDA


Severe drought conditions were reported in Arizona and New Mexico. Pasture
conditions in the Southeast improved greatly from last year's drought reduced
levels.

Peaches: U.S. production is forecast at 2.47 billion pounds, down 7 percent

from both 1993 and 1992. Production of the crop. excluding California
Clingstone peaches that are mostty canned, is expected to total 1.37 billion
pounds, 12 percent less than last year and 7 percent less than 1992.

California. Georgia, and South Carolina, the only States to have a June
forecast, were unchanged from that forecast. Harvest of California's Freestones
is approximately one-half complete with Flavorcrest and Redtop, the major
varieties, currently being picked. Picking of California’s Clingstones has
begun in the Kingsburg area. Georgia's harvest has reached 80 percent complete,
about two weeks ahead of last year and a week earlier than normal. Frequent
showers have helped later varieties size adequately, but have also caused a
higher incidence of brown rot. Harvest in South Carolina has been active.
Currently, harvest is 34 percent complete which is ahead of last year and the
average. Quality and size have been good. Sporadic afternoon showers
throughout the growing areas have boosted expectations for a good crop. Despite
current favorable growing conditions, a few reports were received of total crop
losses due to the freeze late last spring.

Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia growers expect no
significant commercial production because of winter damage from extremely cold
weather. The cold winter caused all the States in the Ohio Valley, mid-
Atlantic, and Northeast to have production levels below last year. Production
levels for California. Oregon, and much of the Rocky Mountain area are expected
to be above last year.

Alabama experienced dry weather from May through early June. Weather conditions
changed to wet and cloudy for the remainder of June resulting in fruit split and
brown rot. The production potential may be further reduced due to poor quality
and undersized fruit. A large part of the Arkansas crop was either damaged or
destroyed by frost. Idaho's orchards still suffer from the devastating winter
of 1990-91. The Indiana crop was destroyed by frigid winter temperatures. Many
trees have died and blooms were non-existent. A series of hard freezes during
late March and early April hit the majority of Kansas trees just before or
during bloom. The record snow and cold temperatures of 1994 were devastating
for the Kentucky crop. Many Maryland orchards were hit by freezes and will not
produce any peaches this year. The winter freeze caused havoc to Michigan's
trees. Many trees were destroyed and have already been removed. Growers in
parts of northern New Jersey reported damage to their crop this year due to
severe winter weather. Recent hailstorms have further reduced the crop. South
Jersey growers expect a good crop. Fruit is sizing well. Extreme winter
conditions eliminated New York’s 1994 crop. Many trees were killed due to the
record low temperatures, The Ohio crop was lost due to record cold temperatures
received this winter. Many trees were killed. The Tennessee crop has been
plagued by severe cold winter temperatures, damage from ice storms, and an April
frost. Other problems include brown rot and an irregular bloom. The Shenandoah
Valley and the Piedmont areas of Virginia suffered from a freeze out in
February. Growers in the southwest and Roanoke areas experienced some cold

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-7 NASS, USDA


Departure of Average Temperature from Normal(°F)
JUN 1994

y
4 .

BG XN

CLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER, NOAA

Based on preliminary dota

Crop Production
July 1994

B-3

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape. etc.) should contact the

USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint. write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C..
20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal

employment opportunity employer.

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-16 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal
Group, State, and United States. 1992-94

Seasonal Yield Production
Group and ee
State : 1993 1994 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994

Winter 1/
CA 5.2 4.5 200 215 1,378 1,040 968
FL 8.4 7.8 180 180 1,620 1,512 1,404
Total 13.6 12.3 188 193 2,998 2,552 2,372

Spring 1/
AL 2.7 2.5 155 175 543 419 438
AZ 5.5 6. 270 270 1,800 1,485 1.701
CA 19.5 20.5 385 380 7,238 7,508 7,790
FL :

Hastings : 26.0 29.0 180 220 6,000 4,680 6.380
Other FL : 7.5 9.6 185 200 1.750 1,388 1,920

NC >: 17.3 17.0 180 190 3,460 3,114 3,230
1X : 5.3 5.5 200 200 744 1,060 1,100
Total : 83.8 90.4 235 250 21,535 19,654 22,559

Summer
AL 7.1 7.0 90 155 1,190 639 1,085
CA 4.8 5.7 330 360 1,376 1,584 2,052
co 8.2 9.0 310 320 2,010 2,542 2,880
DE 5.0 4.6 150 185 1,380 750 851
IL 4.5 4.6 260 280 1,320 1,170 1,288
IA 0.7 1.7 150 195 280 105 332
MD 2.3 2.0 140 190 320 322 380
MI 12.5 13.0 280 220 3,120 3,500 2,860
MN 7.1 7.6 300 325 2,308 2,130 2,470
MO 6.7 6.7 225 220 1,764 1,508 1,474
NE 3.0 3.4 210 290 600 630 986
NJ 3.3 2.9 190 190 840 627 551
NM 4.3 4.5 300 270 952 1,290 1,215
NC 1.2 1.4 100 90 154 120 126
1x 7.5 7.5 250 240 1,715 1,875 1,800
VA 11.0 9.5 160 130 1,980 1,760 1,235
Total 2 91.1 230 237 21,309 20,552

See footnotes at end of table. --continued

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 A-18 NASS, USDA


Durum Wheat: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

Area Harvested Yield Production

1.000 Acres = -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels --
AZ : 50 94 90.0 90.0 91.0 4,500 8,554
CA : 40 59 95.0 95.0 95.0 3,800 5,605
MN : 8 39 30.0 47.0 240 1,833
MT : 114 178 31.0 33.0 3,534 5,874
ND + 1,820 2,250 31.0 35.0 56,420 78,750
SD : 18 19 24.0 27.0 432 513
US : 2,050 2,639 33.6 38.3 68,926 101,129

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production

- 1,000 Acres - --- Bushels -- 1,000 Bushels
co : 33 42 80.0 82.0 3,619 2,640 3,444
1D : 540 630 80.0 77.0 48.000 43,200 48.510
MN : 2,250 2,550 31.0 45.0 137,500 69,750 114,750
MT : 2,650 3,300 37.0 37.0 73,500 98.050 122,100
NV : 5 4 80.0 70.0 375 400 280
ND : 8,850 9,000 31.0 34.0 382,200 274,350 306,000
OR : 65 62 60.0 55.0 4,900 3,900 3.410
so : 2,020 1,950 27.0 25.0 85,000 54,540 48,750
UT : 25 22 49.0 46.0 1,056 1,225 1,012
WA : 290 245 52.0 43.0 17,640 15,080 10,535
WI : 10 11 29.0 35.0 840 290 385
wy : 13 18 42.0 35.0 588 546 630
US 16.751 17,834 33.7 37.0 755,218 563.971 659, 806
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 A-10 NASS, USDA

besa. __ _ —


by more than 2.0 percent or approximately 33.2 million bushels. Chances are

9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
3.5 percent or approximately 58.0 million bushels. Differences between the
July 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past
10 years have averaged 22 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 52 million
bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 3 times and
above 7 times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this
year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1994 B-13 NASS, USDA


Papayas: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is estimated at 5.26 million

pounds during June. This was 10 percent less than May but 13 percent
more than a year ago. Year-to-date fresh sales were 11 percent higher than the
same 6-month period of 1993.

Weather conditions during June were favorable toward papaya orchard development.
Mostly sunny periods with some beneficial showers dominated the month

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,285 acres, 1 percent lower than May
and 13 percent lower than last June. Harvested area, totaling 2,305 acres, was
2 percent lower than last month and 9 percent lower than a year ago.

All Potatoes: Potato farmers have planted 1.41 million acres of potatoes across
the U.S. this year, up 1 percent from last year and 5 percent

above two years ago. Area for harvest is forecast at 1.38 million acres. up

5 percent from the last two years. By season, acreage planted is down

13 percent for winter potatoes, up 5 percent for spring, up 1 percent for

summer, and up 1 percent for the fall crop.

Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes is estimated at a record high

1.21 million acres in 1994, up fractionally from the previous
high in 1991. Acreage planted is up 1 percent from last year and 5 percent
above two years ago. Harvest is expected from a record high 1.19 million acres,
5 percent above the last two years. Largest increases are in french fry growing
areas.

Most fall potatoes across the U.S. are off to an early start this year.
Washington’s planting finished in mid-May, 7 percent ahead of last year.

Harvest in the Toppenish area started June 25. California's Tulelake-Butte
Valley were about a week ahead of schedule as of the first of July. Oregon
growers report slight frost damage in the Klamath Basin. Idaho also received
some frost in the Eastern seed area but, with early planting. no permanent
damage is expected. Colorado potatoes are in good to excellent condition, aided
by early planting and good early growth. In New Mexico, hot weather and wind
damage has been overcome by timely irrigation and good early progress.

Across the Northern States, potatoes are early, with some rain and flooding in
the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota. In Wisconsin, the planting
season went well with increased acreage attributed to chip varieties. Michigan
fields have been hurt by heavy rains in late June. Maine potatoes are off to a
slow start because of a late snow melt and rain at planting time. Loss of
processing capacity and reports of higher acreage in Western States also forced
Plantings down.

Eastern States potato area, estimated at 130,300 acres planted. is down

3 percent from last year. Maine was down 4 percent and Pennsylvania dropped
10 percent from last year. Rhode Island showed no change. New York potato
acreage gained 1 percent and Massachusetts increased 3 percent.

Central States growers have planted an estimated 348,900 acres of fall potatoes
this year, nearly the same as last year. Michigan's acreage is up 10 percent.
Minnesota plantings are up 6 percent, and Wisconsin gained 2 percent from a year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1994 B-10 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production

AL: 29 33 100.

6 97.0 2,205 2,900 3,201
CA : 200 220 65.0 60.0 11,780 13,000 13,200
co : 90 83 85.0 82.0 9,720 7,650 6,806
DE : 35 30 65.0 §5.0 2,590 2,275 1,650
ID : 750 720 80.0 77.0 54,000 60,000 55,440
KS : 15 13 46.0 40.0 920 690 520
ky : 16 14 67.0 75.0 1,188 1,072 1,050
MD : 69 60 69.0 62.0 4,672 4,761 3,720
MI : 28 33 54.0 54.0 1,736 1,512 1,782
MN : 650 625 58.0 65.0 50,625 37,700 40,625
MT : 1,100 1,150 58.0 55.0 52,800 63,800 63, 250
NE : 32 21 38.0 38.0 1,500 1,216 798
NV : 5 4 100.0 105.0 550 500 420
NJ § 5 60.0 50.0 448 300 250
NC 20 25 60.0 70.0 1,980 1,200 1,750
ND 2,400 2.550 49.0 54.0 172,250 117,600 137,700
OK 8 6 35.0 39.0 378 280 234
OR 150 130 75.0 69.0 9,450 11,250 8.970
PA 98 80 63.0 65.0 6.390 5,985 5,200
Sc ? 7 38.0 58.0 558 266 406
SD 360 355 42.0 40.0 20,520 15.120 14,200
TX 7 6 44.0 33.0 270 308 198
UT 110 110 85.0 81.0 8,970 9.350 8,910
VA 8§ 85 67.0 70.0 7,110 5,695 §,950
WA 345 305 67.0 55.0 19,800 23,115 16.775
WI 70 75 46.0 55.0 4,160 3,220 4,125
WY 110 103 86.0 84.0 11,340 9,460 8,652
US 6,791 6,848 58.9 59.3 457,910 400,225 405,782
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

duly 1994 A-7 NASS, USDA



‘ete

Oats:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

Area Harvested

1993 1994
- 1,000 Acres -
30 38
20 20
30 35
32 30
50 50
15 25
90 90
40 40
225 450
30 120
26 21
8 6
130 110
475 475
14 30
70 80
160 160
105 100
30 40
530 520
150 120
25 390
30 55
200 170
30 40
$10 560
140 150
13 10
30 20
5 5
525 500
25 32
3,793 132
uction

Crop Prod
July 1994

1992
1,500 1,350
1.600 1.360
2,800 2,400
2,100 1,984
3,685 3.000
1,440 1,200
7,930 4,590
2,800 2,240
25,125 9,000
7.840 1,020
1,870 1,950
594 424
8,400 7,150
35.000 23.750
2,430 686
3,920 4,550
15,400 6,880
7,700 6,510
3,000 1,800
37.400 37,100
12,070 9,000
2,100 875
4,230 3,000
13,735 10,000
2,205 1,500
42,900 26,520
5,720 7,420
1,050 1,014
1,800 2,040
360 240
34,410 24,150
1,650 1,550
294,764 206,253

Yield
1993: = 1994
--- Bushels --
45.0 60.0
68.0 77.0
80.0 75.0
62.0 60.0
60.0 67.0
80.0 70.0
51.0 58.0
56.0 58.0
40.0 65.0
34.0 48.0
75.0 70.0
53.0 63.0
55.0 55.0
50.0 65.0
49.0 55.0
65.0 57.0
43.0 55.0
62.0 68.0
60.0 70.0
70.0 61.0
60.0 59.0
35.9 38.0
100.0 97.0
50.0 60.0
50.0 58.0
52.0 56.0
53.0 44.0
78.0 78.0
68.0 60.0
48.0 50.0
46.0 58.0
62.0 59.0
54.4 60.1

A-6

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Potato

eS:

Area Harvested, Yield. and Praduction. by Seasona

Group, State, and United States. 1992-94 (continued)

Seasonal
Group and
State

Fall
CA
co
1D
10 SW Co
Other ID
IN
ME
MA
MI
MN
MT
NE
NV
NM
NY
Long Is
Upstate
ND
OH
OR
Malheur
Other OR
PA
RI
sD
UT

WI
WY

364,
79.

38.
55.

150.
69.
1

£1,131.

AnNPOCSTDCONSDS

on08 ©

Noon

MBOoOnnronn

2

.000 Acres

ll.
73.

27.
381.
4,
76.
3
42.
70.
9.

6.
22.
129.
5.

10.
38.
18.
1.
5
6
152.
71.
1.

1,188.

WYWOWKNBDOFPOHGS

9
7.
6

aonre

NNOMSORPOAE

3

51,317.8 1,382.1

5,600
22,110

9,570
117,480
989
24,300
825
10,800
16,080
2,465
2,698
2,925
2,295

1,984
5,824
27,690
1.440

3,075
18,000
4,940
377
1,500
1,650
69.300
25,160
448

379,525

425,367

4,800
25.270

10,440
111,020
1,050
20,540
615
11,780
12,100
2.700
3,008
2,926
2,660

1,643
6,050
19.980
1,140

3,741
19,536
4,600
237
1,066
1,643
85,500
22,240
504

376,789

419,547

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ The first forecast of fall potato production will be released on
November 9, 1994.

Crop Production
July 1994

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

Area Harvested Yield Production

State: 1994

2 1993 1994 1993 dun 1 dull 1993 1994

: - 1,000 Acres - — -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels ---
AL : 95 95 34.0 37.0 40.0 3,230 3,800
AZ : 35 29 94.0 95.0 98.0 3,290 2,842
AR : 1,000 900 40.0 42.0 48.0 40,000 43,200
CA : 500 510 80.0 79.0 80.0 40,000 40,800
co > 2,550 2,600 37.0 35.0 31.0 94,350 80,600
DE : 63 70 57.0 45.0 50.0 3,591 3,500
FL : 25 20 33.0 42.0 42.0 825 840
GA : 360 400 38.0 50.0 53.0 13,680 21,200
1D : 850 800 79.0 75.0 75.0 67,150 60,000
IL : 1,550 900 44.0 50.0 55.0 68,200 49,500
IN : 670 630 52.0 51.0 55.0 34,840 34,650
IA : 40 50 25.0 45.0 45.0 1,000 2,250
KS : 11,100 11,400 35.0 36.0 37.0 388,500 421,800
KY : 470 450 49.0 48.0 57.0 23,030 25,650
LA : 95 80 25.0 35.0 38.0 2,375 3,040
MD : 200 220 54.0 46.0 49.0 10,800 10,780
MI : 540 580 41.0 48.0 46.0 22,140 26,680
MN : 40 38 30.0 38.0 35.0 1,200 1,330
MS : 210 160 33.0 40.0 45.0 6.930 7,200
MO : 1,400 1,100 38.0 42.0 44.0 53,200 48.400
MT 2,450 1,850 42.0 38.0 38.0 102,900 70,300
NE : 2,100 2.000 35.0 34.0 31.0 73,500 62,000
NV : 4 5 100.0 90.0 90.0 400 450
NJ : 33 35 43.0 47.0 45.0 1,419 1,575
NM : 270 240 23.0 21.0 22.0 6,210 5,280
NY : 85 110 46.0 51.0 51.0 3,910 5,610
NC : 560 620 42.0 43.0 50.0 23,520 31,000
ND : 130 35 33.0 35.0 33.0 4,290 1,155
OH : 1,010 1,200 52.0 56.0 60.0 52,520 72,000
OK : 6,400 5.300 30.0 29.0 27.0 162,000 143,100
OR : 860 870 71.0 62.0 62.0 61,060 $3,940
PA : 165 165 45.0 45.0 50.0 7,425 8,250
sc : 260 360 38.0 43.0 54.0 9,880 19,440
SD : 1,450 1,350 39.0 32.0 32.0 56,550 43,200
TN : 340 290 41.0 42.0 50.0 13,940 14,500
1X : 3,700 3,000 32.0 29.0 26.0 118,400 78,000
UT : 155 160 39.0 44.0 42.0 6,045 6,720
VA : 255 255 §3.0 52.0 56.0 13,515 14, 280
WA : 2,500 2,300 65.0 56.0 56.0 162,500 128,800
WV : 11 i 43.0 44.0 44.0 473 484
WI : 115 130 38.0 47.0 50.0 4,370 6,500
WY : 200 180 30.0 28.0 21.0 6.000 3,780
US 43,846 41,498 40.3 39.7 40.0 1,769,158 1,658,426
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1994 A-9 NASS, USDA



General Crop Comments: The warmest June on record for parts of the Nation and

the continued dry weather stressed the Nation’s crops.
June began with the development of small grains accelerated by persistent hot
weather. Beneficial rains early in the month were evaporated by the hot weather
and could not restore the soil moisture to adequate levels, for the field crops.
Scattered rainfall produced uneven stands of row crops in the middie Mississippi
Valley. The Nation's cotton crop was initially assisted by the hot weather but
was later stressed by the continued dry conditions. Producers treated for
moderate insect problems, and sprayed herbicides and cultivated to control weeds
due to poor pre-emergence control. By mid month, the first heat wave hit the
eastern Corn Belt and further stressed the row crops. Crops in the midwest and
southeastern States received much needed rainfall that promoted crop
development. Across the western States, mostly clear weather allowed planting.
and early harvest activities to continue. Wheat across the Nation was turning
color and beginning to ripen, while the 90 degree plus temperatures in the
southern States allowed producers to conclude cotton planting, Later in the
month, a storm front lingered over the central Great Plains and Tennessee
Valley, interrupting the winter wheat harvest but provided much needed moisture.
Severe weather in the middle Mississippi Valley produced hail which caused some
replanting of soybeans and corn. At the end of the month, a second heat wave
hit the southern High Plains, further stressing field crops. By month's end.
some of the hottest days ever recorded in the Southwest wilted field crops and
slowed some crop development. The wheat harvest progressed quickly in the
central Great Plains until the rains arrived at month's end. Hot. windy weather
dried fields. allowing the harvest to resume by month's end. The Nation's row
crops began June ahead of the five-year average progress and the dry weather
kept progress ahead of the average for the month.

Ouring the first week of July. ruminents of tropical storm Alberto stalled over
the Florida panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and Georgia. Georgia received the
major portion of the rainfall and damage. Heavy rains up to 15 inches and
isolated cases over 20 inches damaged crops. Damages to date have not been
assessed. The next estimate for crops will be made as of August 1 and published
August 11, 1994.

Oats: Total 1994 oat production is forecast at 248 million bushels, up

20 percent from last year. The forecasted yield at 60.1 bushels per
acre is up 5.7 bushels from last season's 54.4 bushels. Area harvested and to
be harvested, at 4.13 million acres, is up 9 percent from the 1993 harvested
acreage of 3.79 million acres.

Expected yields in lowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are up sharply from last year.
South Dakota growers expect yields to average 4 bushels more than last year.
North Dakota producers are expecting yields to decline from last year.

Barley: Barley production is forecast at 406 million bushels as of July 1,

1994. This production, if realized, would be 1 percent above the 1993
Production of 400 million bushels. Yields are expected to average 59.3 bushels
per acre, up 0.4 bushel from last year. Area harvested and to be harvested, at
6.85 million acres, is up 1 percent from last year’s 6.79 million acres.

Yield declines in the Western States were offset by increases in the Southeast
and upper midwestern States. Expected yield in North Dakota, the largest
producing State, is 5 bushels above last year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-5 NASS, USDA


Crop Agrealtural
. Statistics
Production Service
United States

Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released July 12, 1994, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts refer
to July 1, 1994. Citrus will be released at 3 p.m. ET.

All Wheat Up 1 Percent

All wheat production for 1994 is forecast at 2.42 billion bushets, up 1 percent
from 1993. Harvested area is forecast at 62.0 million acres, down 1 percent
from last year. The 1994 yield is expected to average 39.0 bushels per acre, up
0.7 bushels from last season,

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.66 billion bushels, down 1 percent from
June 1, mainly due to a reduction in the forecasted acreage for harvest, and
down 6 percent from 1993. Yields are now expected to average 40.0 bushels per
acre, up 0.3 bushels from Tast month but down 0.3 bushels from last season.
Yield increases are expected in Soft Red Winter States and Kansas. Most other
major Hard Red Winter States except Montana are expected to have lower yields
than last month. White winter production is down, primarily from acreage
reductions.

Other spring wheat production is forecast at 660 million bushels, up 17 percent
from 1993. Yield is forecast at 37.0 bushels per acre. up 3.3 bushels per acre
from a year ago. Montana growers will have a record high production, if the
forecast holds. Minnesota and North Dakota prospective yields are up; South
Dakota is down.

Index is located at the end of this report. For information call
(202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (7-94)


Pasture and Range Feed: Condition by State and United States,
1993-94 and Average i/

State : Average : 1993: 1994 State : Average : 1993: 1994
: 1983-92 : : : 1983-92: :
Percent Percent
AL : 73 75 96 75 101 77
AZ : 72 81 64 89 80 90
AR : 80 91 83 78 65 80
CA : 74 85 67 74 67 59
ca : 82 82 72 82 94 94
CT : 85 60 90 78 66 80
DE : 75 76 87 73 92 90
FL : 78 81 85 81 87 75
GA : 68 54 92 84 96 88
1D : 80 98 80 83 109 84
IL : 75 97 88 77 75 75
IN t 78 97 79 88 45 80
IA : 75 95 95 68 65 76
KS : 83 87 78 79 100 88
kY : 82 93 83 79 88 92
LA : 80 95 94 74 79 72
ME : 85 85 90 76 99 78
MD : 77 91 75 86 95 95
MA : 88 65 80 82 77 75
MI : 75 90 80 82 85 71
MN : 79 94 96 77 80 81
MS z 80 gl 87 78 89 77
MO : 76 94 82 83 104 74

MT : 76 84 92

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over: poor to fair 65-79: very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought. under 35.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1994 A-12 NASS, USDA


Wheat:

Production by Class. United States,

1992-93 and Forecasted July 1, 1994 1/

Winter
Year Hard Soft Hard Total
Red Red white Red Durum White
1,000 Bushels
1992 : 966.078 427,139 213.317 702,108 97,196 53,110 2,458,948
1993 : 1,073,417 402,715 293,026 509,982 68,926 53,989 2,402,055
1994 969.904 434,392 254,130 605,230 101,129 54,576 2,419,361
1/ Wheat class estimates are based on the latest varietal acreage survey data

avatlable. The prev
the forecast season,

Tobacco:
State, and Un

Class and Type

Class 1, Flue-Cured
Type 11, Old and
Middle Belts

Type 12, Eastern NC
Belt

NC
Type 13, NC Border &
SC Belt

14, GA-FL Belt

Crop Production
July 1994

tous end-of-season Class percentages are used through
unless otherwise noted.

Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by Class, Type.

ited States, 1993 and Forecasted July 1. 1994

Area Harvested Yield Production
1993 1994 1993 : 1994 1993 1994
vores Acres -- --- Pounds --- - 1,000 Pounds --
99.000 93,000 2,100 2,200 207,900 204.600
36.000 33,000 2,035 2,100 73,260 69,300
135,000 126,000 2,083 2,174 281,160 273,900
: 129,000 120.000 2,325 2,250 299,925 270,000
34,000 31,000 2,355 2,250 80,070 69.750
52.000 48,000 2,130 2.300 110.760 110,400
86,000 79,000 2,219 2,280 190,830 180,150
7,100 7,000 2,630 2,500 18,673 17,500
43,000 39,000 2,240 2,200 96,320 85,800
60,100 46,000 2,295 2,246 114,993 103.300
400,100 371,000 2,217 2,230 886,908 827,350
Agricultural Statistics Board
A-11 NASS, USDA


Reliability of July 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
between June 22 and July 2 to gather information on expected
yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in 13 States that
accounted for 83 percent of the 1993 production. Plots were revisited to make
counts and harvest mature samples. In late fields, counts such as number of
stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the
number of heads that would be harvested. A 5-year historical head weight is
used until the crop matures to the point that heads can be clipped, threshed,
and weighed. The number of heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot
can then be expanded to an estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average
harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited
each month until the crop reaches maturity and or harvested on the final visit.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 10,000 winter wheat
Producers representing all major production areas. These producers were
selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter
wheat yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the
growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season
progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness
and consistency with historical estimates. The indications were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared.to previous month and
previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the
survey indications and the State analysis to prepare the published duly 1
forecasts.

Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised: instead. a

new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the
marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks,
production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then
made if data relationships warrant changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 winter

wheat production forecast, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a
statistical measure based on past performance is computed. This is done by
expressing the deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared’
percentage deviations for the 1974-1993 20-year period: the square root of the
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year’s forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The “Root Mean Square Error” for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is
2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production
forecast of 1.66 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-12 NASS, USDA


ago. North Dakota is down 7 percent and South Dakota dropped 8 percent.
Nebraska and Indiana are down 2 percent each and Ohio slipped 3 percent.

Western States growers have planted 728.600 acres of fall potatoes in 1994, up
3 percent from a year earlier. Six States are up. three are down. and one is
the same as last year. Most notable gains are in New Mexico, up 13 percent.
Idaho and Utah are each up 5 percent from last year. Colorado and Montana
gained 2 percent each, Washington’s acreage waS up 1 percent. California
dropped 8 percent, Wyoming slipped 6 percent, and Oregon was off 1 percent from
1993 plantings. Nevada's potato acreage remained the same as last year.

Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 21.6 million cwt,
. up 5 percent from Jast year and 1 percent above 1992. Farmers

expect to harvest 91,100 acres during the summer season, an increase of

2 percent from a year earlier. Average yield, forecast at 237 cwt per acre, is

up 7 cwt per acre. Planted area of 94,700 acres is up 1 percent.

Harvest is active along the Atlantic Coast with North Carolina’s progress at
about 60 percent complete and the Delmarva harvest in full swing. A cool, wet
spring and dry weather in June have hurt yields. particularly in Virginia.
Delaware and Maryland yields, however, are better than last year’s poor crop.
Alabama growers have a good crop but early harvest was delayed by recent wet
weather.

June rain storms in Michigan's summer potato area have saturated fields and
caused some localized flooding. Growers fear poorer yields and quality loss.
Harvest should start in mid-July. In the upper midwest. yields are expected to
turn out better than last year’s drowned out crops. Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa,
and Nebraska are looking forward to a good harvest. Harvest is 75 percent
complete in Missouri's southeast counties and will get started in the northwest
in July. Hot June weather in the Western Plains States pushed potatoes
resulting in lower yields in New Mexico and Texas. Farmers in Colorado have
been able to keep ahead of the heat with irrigation. California growers report
good quality with harvest starting in early July.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-11 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

- 1,000 Acres - --- Bushels -- --------
AL : 95 95 34.0 40.0 4,180 3,230 3,800
AZ : 85 123 91.6 92.7 7,700 7,790 11,396
AR : 1,000 900 40.0 48.0 39,100 40,000 43,200
CA : 540 569 81.1 81.6 46,365 43,800 46,405
co 2 2,583 2,642 37.5 31.8 72,619 96,990 84,044
DE L 63 70 57.0 50.0 4,060 3,591 3,500
FL : 25 20 33.0 42.0 840 825 840.
GA : 360 400 38.0 53.0 16,100 13,680 21,200
1D : 1,390 1,430 79.4 75.9 100,000 110,350 108,510
IL : 1,550 900 44.0 55.0 62,100 68,200 49,500
IN : 670 630 52.0 55.0 22,500 34,840 34,650
IA : 40 50 25.0 45.0 1,560 1,000 2,250
ks : 11,100 11,400 35.0 37.0 363,800 388,500 421,800
KY : 470 450 49.0 57.0 23,100 23,030 25,650
LA : 95 80 25.0 38.0 6,120 2,375 3,040
MO : 200 220 64.0 49.0 12,760 10.800 10,780
MI : 540 580 41.0 46.0 35,280 22,140 26,680
MN : 2,298 2,627 31.0 44.9 139, 860 71,190 117,913
MS : 210 160 33.0 45.0 10,500 6,930 7,200
MO : 1,400 1,100 38.0 44.0 64,800 53,200 48,400
MT 5,214 5,328 39.2 37.2 139,581 204,484 198,274
NE > 2,100 2,000 35.0 31.0 55,500 73,500 62,000
NV : 9 9 88.9 81.1 800 800 730
Nd : 33 35 43.0 45.0 1,400 1,419 1,575
NM : 270 240 23.0 22.0 11,220 6.210 5.280
NY : 85 110 46.0 51.0 6.160 3.910 5.610
NC : 560 620 42.0 50.0 27,750 23,520 31,000
ND : 10,800 11,285 31.0 34.2 469,850 335,060 385,905
OH : 1,010 1,200 52.0 60.0 59,095 52,520 72,000
OK : 5,400 5,300 30.0 27.0 171,100 162,000 143,100
OR : 925 932 70.2 61.5 47,800 64,960 57,350
PA : 165 165 45.0 50.0 10,175 7.425 8.250
SC : 260 360 38.0 54.0 12,925 9,880 19,440
SO : 3,488 3,319 32.0 27.9 119,590 111,522 92,463
TN : 340 290 41.0 50.0 13,440 13,940 14,500
TX : 3,700 3,000 32.0 26.0 129,200 118,400 78,000
UT t 180 182 40.4 42.5 6.256 7,270 7,732
VA : 255 255 53.0 56.0 15,105 13,515 14,280
WA >: 2,790 2,545 63.6 54.7 119,640 177,580 139,335
wy : 11 11 43.0 44.0 539 473 484
WI : 125 141 37.3 48.8 2,640 4,660 6.885
wy : 213 198 30.7 22.3 5,838 6,546 4,410
US : 62,647 61,971 38.3 39.0 2.458.948 2.402.055 2,419,361
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1994 A-8 NASS, USDA



DROUGHT SEVERITY !
(LONG TERM, PALMER)
| MODERATE | i] 1} June 25, 1994
Ny UPDATED BI-WEEKLY
UY, \ MOIST
| MOIST
y) # MODERATE vi
4 Ht EXTREME ++ Gq MODERATE
f C -
$i: MOIST 4
SEVERE, K Flats seven \ MOIST
/ititiaiss oneRATEY
if Nee ‘s) er Wee
~~
x : Moist 1ST, 0
: ~ ~ ! ‘MOIST f
EXTREME, \ N ~~
: DD V/ 4. ZED
iy J MODERATE ‘MODERATE
Bs ' is)
MODERATE
“—. \ MOIST
Avovreare MOIST
-_/
‘MODERATE:
NOAMUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on proliminary reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week: and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies: designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1994 B-2 NASS, USDA


weather problems but not as severe as the northern part of the state. Prolonged
cold temperatures in late January killed buds and virtually eliminated West
Virginia's commercial production.

Grapes: The initial California all grape production forecast is 5.43 million
tons. up 1 percent from last year but down 1 percent from 1992.
Vineyards were irrigated and treated for mildew and insects.

The California raisin type variety grape forecast is 2.40 million tons,
virtually unchanged from last year. The crop is behind normal progress but
recent hot weather has helped maturity. There is no acreage in the Raisin
Industry Diversion (RID) program for 1994.

The California wine type variety grape is forecast at 2.40 million tons, up
2 percent from last year. The crop is maturing well.

California's table type grape production is expected to be 630,000 tons,
unchanged from last year. Picking is virtually complete in the Coachella Valley
and just beginning in the San Joaquin Valley.

Apricots: The final forecast for the 1994 U.S. apricot crop is 137,800 tons, up
43 percent from last year’s crop.

California's crop is forecast at 130,000 tons, up 18 percent from June's
forecast. Growers report excellent quality with low off-grades. Fruit size is
well overall. with high yields reported. Ory yards are busy drying fruit.

The Utah crop, at 500 tons, was double last year’s hail damaged crop. Spring
frosts were beneficial for thinning. The trees are heavy with fruit.

Washington’s production is 7,300 tons, 10 percent below 1993. A larger crop in
the Wenatchee Valley will not offset a smaller crop in the Yakima Valley.
Harvest continues in the warmer areas of the Yakima Valley.

Walnuts: The 1994 California forecast is 260,000 tons, the same as the 1993

crop. Growers report good nut set with little blight or heat problems
so far. Hartleys are expected to be an average crop this year, down slightly
from last year. Serrs are expected to be a good crop. Varieties with lower
yields last year are expected to rebound this year.

Almonds: The 1994 California crop is forecast at 640 million pounds (shelled

basis). Based on the Almond Objective Measurement Survey, this is up
5 percent from the May 1 forecast and up 31 percent from last year’s crop.
Estimated bearing acreage amounts to 410.000 acres.

The crop appears to be in excellent condition. The 1994 crop shows increased
uniformity compared with the 1993 crop. Bloom was good, resulting in a large
set with smaller nut size. A high quantity of nuts have dropped but based on
the heavy nut set, the percentage is normal.

Grapefruit: The final forecast for the 1993-94 U.S. grapefruit production is
2.65 million tons, up slightly from the June 1 forecast but down
5 percent from last season. The Florida forecast for a1] three types of Florida

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-8 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1993 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

(Domestic Units)

Crop and Unit

Production

Oats
Barley
All Wheat
Winter
Ourum
Other Spring
Summer Potatoes
Flue-cured Tobacco
Types 11-14
Pasture and Range
Feed 1/
Peaches
Apricots
Almonds (CA)
Walnuts (CA)

Citrus Fruits 2/
Oranges

Grapefruit
Lemons

60.1 206

59.3 400

39.0 2,402

40.0 1,769

38.3 68

37.0 563

237 20

2,230 886
81

2,656

490

2

199

10

2

253 248,151
£225 405,782
055 2,419,361
.158 1,674,563 1,658,426
926 101,129
971 659,806
552 21,585
908 827,350
.600 =2,135,000 2,473,800
96.4 137.8
000 640,000 640.000
60.0 260.0
2-93 1993-94 1993-94
988 10,334 10,261
791 2,646 2,652
930 992 992

1/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1983-92
average is 78 percent.

2/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year

Crop Production
duly 1994

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit:

Utilized Production by Crop, State. and United States.
1992-93 and Forecasted July 1, 1994 1/

Utilized Production
Boxes

Utilized Production
Ton Equivalent

3-94

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/
AZ 4/

Grapefruit
White Seedless
FL
Colored Seediess

Desert 4/
Other Areas
Total

Tangelos
FL

K-Early Citrus
FL

37,
07,

45,
26,
66,
93,

38

24

ny

or
NEM RwWrOmDw

a

370

800
000
73,

500
550

850
250

500
25,
-050
000

500

300

500
800
050
000
850

100

1991-92: 1992-93: 199
veers 1,000 Tons ---
29 26
1,317 1,642 1,
3,753 5,143 4,
1 20
5,100 6,831 6,
60 43
1,211 863
2,538 3,249 2,
2
3,809 4,157 3,
89 69
2,528 2,505 2,
6,291 8,392 7,
1 22
8.909 10,988 10,
106 113
812 1,093 1,
940 1,177 1,
51 74
89 69
112 112
217 191
329 303
1,803 2.344 2
3 75
2,224 2,791 2,
45 35
92 83
123 133
260 251
193 167
§73 763
766 930
117 137
7 8

261
101

041

111

652

Crop Production
July 1994

780 700
35,100 43,800
83,400 114,300 1

20 450
119,300 159,250 1

1,600 1,150
32,300 23,000
56.400 72,200

10 60
90,310 96,410

2,380 1,850
67,400 66,800
139,800 186,500 1

30 $10
209.610 255,660 2

2.350 2,500
19,100 25,700
22,100 27,700

1,200 1,750

2,800 2,150
3,500 3,500

6,500 5.700
10,000 9,200
42,400 55,150

65 1,875

55.265 68,375

1,200 950

2,440 2,200

2,600 2,800

6,240 5,950
5,100 4,400
15,100 20,100
20,200 24,500

2,600 3,050

165 185

A-15

Agricultural Statistics

NASS.

Board
USDA


Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group.

State, and United States,

1993-94

: :: Seasonal Group :
1993: 1994 :: and State > 1993

Seasonal Group
and State

Winter j/
CA
FL
Total

Spring L/
AL
AZ
CA
FL

Hastings

Other FL

1994
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres
Fall
5.6 4.5 CA 12.0 11.0
8.7 7.9 co 72.5 74.0
14.3 12.4 1D :
10 SW Co : 24.0 27.0
Other ID : 366.0 383.0
IN : 4.5 4.4
2.8 2.6 ME 81.0 78.0
5.5 6.3 MA 3.0 3.1
19.5 20.5 MI 40.0 44.0
28.0 29.5 MN 70.0 74.0
8.0 9.7 MT 9.1 9.3
17.6 17.3 NE 9.6 9.4
5.5 5.7 NV 7.7 7.7
86.9 91.6 NM 5.6 6.3
NY .
Long Is : 6.3 6.1
7.3 7.2 Upstate : 22.5 23.0
4.8 5.7 ND : 143.0 133.0
8.3 9.2 OH 5.8 5.6
5.0 4.6 OR :
5.1 5.0 Malheur : 8.9 10.5
1.5 1.7 Other OR : 41.5 39.5
2.5 2.2 PA : 21.0 19.0
13.0 14.0) :: RI 11 1.1
7.2 7.7 og: SO 6.0 5.5
7.7 7.2 nn UT 6.3 6.6
3.1 3.5 WA 150.0 152.0
3.4 2.9 WI 71.5 73.0
4.9 4.5 WY 1.8 1.7
1.3 1.5
8.0 7.8 Total 1,190.7 1,207.8
11.0 10.0
94.1 94.7 us 1,386.0 1,406.5

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production
July 1994

A-17

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested. United States,
1993 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

Domestic Units - 1,000 Acres

Oats : 7.944 6.700 3,793 4,132

Barley : 7,826 7,307 6,791 6,848
All Wheat t 72,208 70,468 62,647 61,971
Winter : 51,727 49,547 43,846 41,498
Durum : 2,191 2,695 2,050 2,639
Other Spring : 18,290 18,226 16,751 17,834
Potatoes :
Summer : 94.1 94.7 89.2 91.1
Fall : 1,190.7 1,207.8 1,131.2 1,188.3
Total : 1,386.0 1,406.5 1,317.8 1,382.1
All Tobacco : 747.5 685.2
Flue-cured :
Types 11-14 : 400.1 371.0

Metric Units - Hectares

Oats : 3,214,860 2,711,420 1,534,990

1,672,180
Barley : 3,167,100 2,957,070 2,748,250 2,771,320
All Wheat : 29,221,860 28,517,690 25,352,610 25,079,040
Winter : 20,933,400 20,051,180 17,744,040 16.793,830
Ourum : 886.680 1,090,640 829.610 1,067,980
Other Spring i 7,401,780 7,375, 880 6,778,960 7,217,240
Potatoes :
Summer : 38,080 38,320 36,100 36,870
Fall : 481,860 488.780 457,790 480,890
Total : 560,900 $69,200 533.300 559,320
Al) Tobacco : 302,520 277,290
Flue-cured :
Types 11-14 : 161,920 150,140

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 A-3 NASS, USDA

nical



Winter Wheat: Grain area is 41.5 million acres..down 5 percent from last year

but unchanged from the June 30 "Acreage" report. As of July 3,
harvest had moved to completion in Kansas and nearly so in Oklahoma and several
Southeastern States. Colorado and Nebraska harvests were well ahead of average.
Soft Red yields in general have been much better than previously expected. Most
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States have yield increases of 3 to 7 bushels over
the previous forecast.

Durum Wheat: Total durum production is forecast at 101 million bushels, up

47 percent from last year’s reduced crop and 4 percent higher
than the 1992 crop. Yields are forecast at 38.3 bushels per acre, up
4.7 bushels per acre from 1993. If realized, this will be second only to 1992's
record high of 39.7 bushels per acre. Harvested area is 2.64 million bushels,
up 29 percent from last season.

As of July 3, durum harvest was complete in California and nearly so in Arizona.
Planting of North Dakota's durum finished later than normal. Development is
ahead of last year but trails average progress. Montana's northeast durum area
has had favorable growing conditions. Dryness has pushed South Dakota's durum
ahead of average.

Other Spring Wheat: Acres for harvest in 1994 are estimated at 17.8 million

acres. up 6 percent from last year. Yields in the Pacific
Northwest and Mountain States are below last year except in Colorado, where
record yields are expected. In most cases, the lower yields are a return to
more normal levels.

North Dakota planting finished later than normal: as of July 3, 12 percent of
the crop was in the milk stage and beyond. This is well ahead of last year but
@ point behind average. About 24 percent of South Dakota's crop is turning
color: average is 16 percent. Idaho's spring wheat is heading well ahead of
average and is in mostly good condition.

Tobacco: The first flue-cured tobacco production forecast for this season is

827 million pounds, down 7 percent from the 1993 production. Yield
per acre for all flue-cured tobacco is forecast at 2,230 pounds, 13 pounds above
the 1993 average yield. Acres for harvest, at 371.000 acres, are down 7 percent
from last year.

North Carolina's crop is down 7 percent from last year. Eighty-four percent of
the tobacco crop is reported in good to excelient condition.

Heavy rains after the first of July could affect the unharvested crops in
Florida and Georgia.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on

July 1, 1994, for the 48 contiguous States
was 81 percent, 7 points below July 1, 1993, but 3 points above the 1983-92
average. Conditions were below last year in 28 States, above last year in
16 States, and the same as last year in 4 States.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-6 NASS, USDA


All orange production is forecast at 10.3 million tons, down 1 percent from June
and 7 percent below last season. Florida's production forecast is 174 million
boxes (7.81 million tons), down slightly from last month and 7 percent below
Jast season. Early and mid-season variety harvest is complete and the forecast
js 107 million boxes (4.83 million tons). The Florida Valencia forecast is
66.2 million boxes (2.98 million tons), down 1 percent from June and 8 percent
below a year ago. Harvest of the Valencias was virtually complete by July 1.
California’s 1993-94 al] orange production forecast is 63.0 million boxes

(2.36 million tons), off 6 percent from last season. The Navel orange forecast
is 37.0 million boxes (1.39 million tons), up 3 percent from the previous
forecast but 16 percent less than last year. The Valencia forecast is

26.0 million boxes (975,000 tons). down 7 percent from the previous forecast but
a 13 percent increase over last season.

Florida frozen concentrate juice yield for the 1993-94 season is 1.57 gallons
per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month. The final yield for
the early portion of the crop is 1.52073 gallons per box. This is the second
highest yield and close to the record 1.52480 yield last season. The late
portion (Valencia) of the crop yielded 1.67 gallons per box. unchanged from last
month, The final yield is reported by the Florida Citrus Processors
Association.

This report was approved on July 12, 1994, by the Secretary of Agriculture and
the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Agricultural Statistics Board.

Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture’ Chairperson
Mike Espy . Rich Allen

Acting Secretar
Agriculture
Richard £. Rominger

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 A-2 NASS, USDA


Index

Page
Table Narrative

Barley. i... cee cece eee eee doce ccueeeseteneeeerenes A- 7 B- 5
Citrus Fruit... ec eee eee A-15 B -8
Crop Moisture Maps............. 0.0... e eee eee eee B- 1
Crop Summary... .... cece ccc cece e ete eee eee A- 3 B- 4
Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts................0seeee A-14 B- 8
Oats... eee eee ene teenies A- 6 B- 5
Papayas-Hawaii....... ee eee cee eee A-16 B-10
Pasture and Range Feed Condition................... A-12 B- 6
PEaCheS. 2.0... eect ete teens A-13 8-7
Potatoes... 0... eee A-17 B-10
Reliability Statement.............. 0. cece eee eee B-12
Tobacco, by Class and Type...................0-00-. A-11 B- 6
Wheat, All... ccc cece eee teen ee teens A- 8

Wheat, by ClaSS.... eee eee ce ee ee eee A-11

Wheat. Durum... ... 0... cece cece eee eee A-10 B- 6
Wheat, Other Spring............ cece cece eee eee eee A-10 B- 6
Wheat. Winter... 2... ccc cece cette eee eee eee A- 9 B- 6
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-14 NASS, USDA


grapefruit is 51.1 million boxes, unchanged from the previous forecast in June.
The separate forecasts are white seedless 24.5 million boxes (1.04 million
tons), down 1 percent from last month: colored seedless 25.5 million boxes
(1.08 million tons), up 1 percent from last month; and seedy grapefruit,

1.05 million boxes (45,000 tons), unchanged from last month. Harvest is
virtually complete.

California’s “Desert Valley" grapefruit forecast, carried forward from April 1,
is 3.30 million boxes. California’s “Other Areas" grapefruit forecast, at

5.50 million boxes. is up 4 percent from April but down 4 percent from a year
ago. Overall, grading is good with sheepnose and coarse texture being the most
noted defects. Fruit set is lighter but fruit size is larger. Heat has brought
color on early.

The Arizona forecast remains unchanged from April at 2.00 million boxes,
7 percent below last season. The Texas forecast. at 3.00 million boxes, is
carried forward from last month and is 60 percent more than last year’s crop.

Lemons: The 1993-94 California and Arizona lemon production forecast is

992,000 tons. This is unchanged from this year’s previous forecast in
April but up 7 percent from 1992-93's 930,000 tons. The 1993-94 crop season is
nearing completion, with harvest virtually finished in California’s Central
Valley region and the California Desert region. Harvest in Southern California
and the Coastal region continues.

Florida Citrus: Most groves are in good to excellent condition. Rainfall

during June was generally above normal in all citrus growing
areas. Warm temperatures and abundant moisture produced new growth on trees of
all ages. New crop fruit development is making good progress. Fruit size is
good with some large sizes, depending on bloom date and location. Harvest of
Valencia oranges was nearly complete by the end of June. Movement of all
seedless grapefruit was down to the last few hundred thousand boxes. Most
Processing plants have closed for the season. Caretakers are cutting cover
crops, spraying, fertilizing, and removing dead trees. New citrus trees are
being set in several areas, mostly as replants with few new groves.

California Fruits and Nuts: June began with above normal temperatures that
continued through most of the month. These high
temperatures led to rapid tree fruit maturity. As a result, stone fruit harvest
was active all month. By month's end, the Freestone peach harvest was
50 percent complete, while harvest of both plums and nectarines was
approximately 40 percent complete. Cherry harvest was completed. Thinning of
apples and later variety peaches was on-going. Almonds, walnuts, and prunes
were irrigated and sprayed to control pests. Vineyards were irrigated and
treated for mildew and insects. Table grape harvest in the Coachella Valley was
virtually complete by the end of the month. Table grape harvest in the southern
San Joaquin Valley was just beginning. Olive and kiwifruit maturity progressed.

California Citrus: Growers treated groves to control thrips and scale. By
month's end, Valencia harvest was one-third complete, while
grapefruit and South Coast lemon harvest began to slow.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 B-9 NASS, USDA


Peaches: Total Production by Crop. State and United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted July 1, 1994

BS
1992 1993 1994
Million Pounds
AL : 13.0 15.0 17.0
AR : 12.0 24.0 10.0
CA - Freestone : 642.0 605.0 620.0
co : 18.0 18.0 19.0
CT : 3.9 3.6 2.1
DE : 3.5 4.0 3.0
GA : 130.0 150.0 165.0
1D : 5.4 7.0 4.0
IL : 18.0 16.0 5.0
IN 2/ : 6.0 8.0
KS : 0.5 0.5 0.5
KY 2/ : 4.0 6.0
LA : 4.0 3.5 4.0
MD 11.0 10.0 3.0
MA 1.7 1.7 0.7
MI 50.0 48.0 15.0
MO 9.0 7.5 6.5
NJ 85.0 90.0 83.0
NY 14.0 9.0 7.0
NC : 12.0 35.0 32.0
OH 2/ : 14.0 7.7
OK : 5.0 20.0 25.0
OR : 15.0 14.0 15.5
PA 2/ : 90.0 100.0
sc : 170.0 220.0 250.0
TTMN : 4.2 10.4 2.5
TX : 27.0 25.0 20.0
UT : 10.8 7.7 11.0
VA : 25.0 28.0 10.0
WA : 52.0 47.0 43.0
WV 2/ : 20.0 18.0
Total Above : 1,476.0 1,559.6 1,373.8
CA - Clingstone 3/ : 1,183.0 1,097.0 1,100.0
US 2,659.0 2,656.6 2,473.8

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
U.S., excluding CA clingstone peaches, 1992 - 113.2. 1993 - 106.0.

2/ No significant production in 1994 due to frost.

3/ CA clingstone is over the scale tonnage and includes culls and cannery
diversions (million pounds): 1992 - 66.0; 1993 - 60.0.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1994 A-13 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

lf The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/ Net Ibs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90. TX-85; grapefruit-CA
Desert & AZ-64 in 1991-92 and 1992-93, 67-starting in January 1994.
CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus &
Temples-90; tangerines-CA and AZ-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

5/ TX estimated at 425 tons for 1991-92.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1993-94

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested

1993 =: = 1994

-- 1,000 Pounds --

May 3,850 3,335 2,465 2,350 3,165 5,855

Jun : 3.795 3,285 2,520 2,305 4,630 5,255

Jul : 3,805 2,450 5,210

Aug 3,410 2,445 5,045

Sep 3,450 2,505 5,230

Oct 3,435 2,455 4,875

Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-Jun eee 26,495 a 29,460
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

duly 1994 A-16 NASS, USDA