Cr Pr 2-2 (2-07)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released February 9, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Unchanged

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 8.12 million tons, unchanged from the January

forecast but down 9 percent from last season’s final utilization of 8.90 million tons. Florida's all orange

forecast, at 140 million boxes (6.30 million tons), is unchanged from January but down 5 percent from the

2005-06 season’s crop. Florida’s citrus growing areas experienced warmer than average temperatures during

most of January. Cooler temperatures toward the end of the month helped to slow down bud formation for

next season’s crop without causing any freeze damage. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are

forecast at 75.0 million boxes (3.38 million tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last

season’s final utilization. The row count survey conducted January 30-31 indicates that 75 percent of the

early-midseason orange rows have been harvested. Beginning with the current season, Temple oranges are

included in this category. Florida’s Valencia forecast is 65.0 million boxes (2.93 million tons), also

unchanged from the January forecast but down 11 percent from last season’s final utilization. Average fruit

size has increased from earlier indications but a higher rate of drop is offsetting. Arizona, California, and

Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from January. The impact of recent weather conditions

in California and Arizona has not yet been measured and is not reflected in this report. Updated forecasts will

be published in March.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season is forecast at 1.61 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.58 gallons per box last month but down from the 2005-06 season’s

yield of 1.63 gallons. Projected yield from the early-midseason portion is 1.55 gallons, up from 1.51 gallons

last month and 1.53 gallons last season. Valencias are projected to yield 1.70 gallons, unchanged from last

month but down from 1.75 gallons for the 2005-06 crop. All projections of yield assume the processing

relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.

Arizona, California, and Texas to Forecast March Citrus Utilization

Due to the extended freeze that hit California and Arizona in mid-January, NASS will publish updated citrus

forecasts for California, Arizona, and Texas in the March Crop Production report. Forecasts for these

quarterly estimating States are normally carried forward from January until April. NASS will survey growers

and packers a month earlier than previously scheduled in order to make new citrus utilization forecasts in

March. The California Valencia objective measurement survey has been discontinued for the 2006-07

season, and will not be used as an indication for the March Valencia forecast. NASS will also publish

updated forecasts in April, as originally scheduled. Monthly forecasts of Florida citrus utilization are

unaffected by this change. Revisions to the 2005-06 season’s utilized citrus production for the United States

and all States will be published in the March Crop Production report, also a month earlier than scheduled.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on February 9, 2007.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Charles F. Conner

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Carol C. House
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Lemons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangelos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangerines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Crop Summary ........................................................................6

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2005-2006

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

376.0

21.7

420.0

40.5

858.2

25.0

1.8

35.0

1.9

63.7

401.0

23.5

455.0

42.4

921.9

386.0

20.3

405.0

45.0

856.3

19.0

2.0

30.0

1.5

52.5

405.0

22.3

435.0

46.5

908.8

31.4

80.8

22.9

38.3

28.8

37.6

34.8

22.9

38.3

29.5

31.8

77.3

22.9

38.3

28.9

35.6

83.5

27.0

38.9

32.8

37.0

33.3

27.0

35.0

31.1

35.7

79.0

27.0

38.8

32.7

11,806

1,753

9,618

1,551

24,728

940

63

802

73

1,878

12,746

1,816

10,420

1,624

26,606

13,742

1,695

10,935

1,751

28,123

703

67

810

53

1,633

14,445

1,762

11,745

1,804

29,756

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the “Crop Production 2006 Summary.”

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2006 2007

2006 2007 2006 2007

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Dec

Jan

2,350

2,280 2,350

1,135

1,790 1,135

2,220

2,920 2,410

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted February 1, 2007 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early, Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL 5

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples 5

 FL

Grapefruit

 White

 FL

 Colored

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

240

44,000

79,100

1,500

124,840

190

20,500

70,700

270

91,660

430

64,500

149,800

1,770

216,500

650

3,400

9,400

140

6,100

12,800

6,600

25,640

400

2,900

4,450

7,750

2,400

20,500

22,900

1,550

250

45,500

75,000

1,400

122,150

200

12,000

72,900

200

85,300

450

57,500

147,900

1,600

207,450

700

6,500

12,800

100

6,000

19,300

5,200

30,600

550

3,600

5,500

9,650

3,800

21,000

24,800

1,400

200

33,000

75,000

1,710

109,910

150

13,000

65,000

270

78,420

350

46,000

140,000

1,980

188,330

9,000

17,000

100

6,000

26,000

6,500

38,600

400

3,800

4,600

8,800

2,800

20,500

23,300

1,200

9

1,650

3,560

64

5,283

7

769

3,182

11

3,969

16

2,419

6,742

75

9,252

29

145

400

5

204

545

264

1,018

15

109

211

335

91

779

870

70

9

1,706

3,375

60

5,150

8

450

3,281

9

3,748

17

2,156

6,656

69

8,898

32

276

544

3

201

820

208

1,232

21

135

261

417

144

798

942

63

8

1,238

3,375

73

4,694

6

488

2,925

11

3,430

14

1,726

6,300

84

8,124

383

723

3

201

1,106

260

1,570

15

143

219

377

106

779

885

54

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90;

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities

of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

3,452.0

78,327.0

4,168.0

580.0

2,838.0

1,396.0

6,522.0

57,344.0

40,575.0

1,870.0

14,899.0

1,044.0

813.0

40.5

1,243.0

1.4

189.0

75,522.0

1,950.0

15,274.0

14,948.0

326.0

1,366.7

46.0

1,629.8

925.5

429.0

1,134.7

17.7

70.7

58.4

987.9

95.6

44,089.0

11.5

2,951.0

70,648.0

6,477.0

60,807.0

21,384.0

39,423.0

1,576.0

475.0

2,821.0

274.0

4,937.0

347.0

46,810.0

31,117.0

1,815.0

13,878.0

1,021.0

767.0

39.2

1,209.0

1.0

179.0

74,602.0

1,770.0

12,731.5

12,408.0

323.5

1,304.1

908.8

339.0

22.5

1,537.6

884.1

407.0

6.3

0.1

29.4

79.2

1,115.5

17.5

67.5

54.3

976.2

18.5

87.2

0.4

11.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Acreage is not estimated. 4 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

“

Tons

“

“

“

Bu

“

Cwt

Bu

“

Tons

Bu

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Bu

Lbs

“

“

“

Bu

Lbs

Bales

“

“

Tons

“

Lbs

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

Cwt

Lbs

61.0

149.1

16.2

2.33

3.35

1.78

59.5

21.5

6,868

26.3

56.2

13.4

38.7

41.7

29.5

33.2

1,366

14.4

720

2,874

1,100

1,069

42.7

1,211

819

811

1,122

25.9

32.7

2,144

1,151

1,577

1,493

797

1,160

43,000

1,964

92

390

257

293

340

402

110

189

250

180,051

10,534,868

104,849

141,666

71,666

70,000

93,764

10,195

193,736

7,193

277,538

4,642

1,812,036

1,298,081

53,475

460,480

1,394,332

7,632.0

11,019

28,220

3,474,450

1,100

191,405

3,188,247

2,143,613

21,729.0

20,973.0

756.0

33,765

29,756

726,724

259

24,247

13,203

3,244

590

7,300

4,300

57,686.7

7,248

434,683

4,495

19,766

18,444

391,978

2,038

16,441

4,500

2,875

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Production

2005 2006 2007

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Tons

“

“

“

“

“

1,000 Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

“

Lbs

Tons

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

Gals

1,018

870

9,252

70

335

29

9,719.9

81.7

20,900.0

7,813.7

142.0

32,900.0

1,184.6

823.3

97.0

9.1

915,000

27.6

280,250

355.0

1,242

1,232

942

8,898

63

417

32

10,072.1

44.7

17,000.0

6,346.3

23.5

28,300.0

1,010.1

841.0

170.0

21.3

1,095,000

41.0

188,900

350.0

1,449

1,570

885

8,124

54

377

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 5

1,396,990

31,698,150

1,686,750

234,720

1,148,510

564,950

2,639,390

23,206,540

16,420,300

756,770

6,029,480

422,500

329,010

16,390

503,030

570

76,490

30,563,000

789,150

6,181,240

6,049,310

131,930

553,090

18,620

659,560

374,540

173,610

459,200

7,160

28,610

23,630

399,790

38,690

17,842,380

4,650

1,194,240

28,590,540

2,621,180

24,607,980

8,653,890

15,954,090

637,790

192,230

1,141,630

110,890

1,997,950

140,430

18,943,540

12,592,740

734,510

5,616,290

413,190

310,400

15,860

489,270

400

72,440

30,190,680

716,300

5,152,310

5,021,390

130,920

527,760

367,780

137,170

9,110

622,250

357,790

164,710

2,550

40

11,880

32,050

451,430

7,080

27,320

21,970

395,060

7,490

35,290

150

4,650

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Acreage is not estimated. 5 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.28

9.36

36.29

5.22

7.51

3.98

2.13

1.20

7.70

1.65

3.53

29.99

2.60

2.81

1.98

2.23

1.53

0.90

0.81

3.22

1.23

1.20

2.87

1.36

0.92

0.91

1.26

58.04

73.40

2.40

1.29

1.77

1.67

0.89

1.30

48.20

2.20

0.10

43.68

28.79

32.82

38.07

45.01

0.12

21.13

28.02

3,920,150

267,597,970

95,117,410

128,517,230

65,014,300

63,502,930

1,360,980

231,220

8,787,720

182,710

7,049,790

4,211,150

49,315,540

35,327,980

1,455,350

12,532,210

632,460

6,923,630

279,900

12,800

1,575,980

500

86,820

86,769,860

972,330

4,730,930

4,566,330

164,600

30,631,090

26,994,190

329,640

11,750

1,099,830

598,880

147,150

26,760

3,310

1,950

26,170

3,290

19,716,890

203,890

896,570

836,610

17,779,820

920

745,750

2,040

130,410

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2005 2006 2007

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

923,510

789,250

8,393,270

63,500

303,910

26,310

4,408,870

74,070

9,480

7,088,470

128,820

14,920

1,074,610

746,900

88,000

8,260

415,040

25,040

127,120

322,050

6,210

1,117,650

854,570

8,072,130

57,150

378,300

29,030

4,568,630

40,530

7,710

5,757,220

21,320

12,840

916,370

762,970

154,220

19,320

496,680

37,190

85,680

317,510

7,240

1,424,280

802,860

7,369,970

48,990

342,010

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 12 NASS, USDA

January Weather Summary

January began on a warm note, especially across the eastern half of the United States, but ended under a very

chilly regime nationwide. Monthly temperatures ranged more than 5 degrees F below normal in deeply

snow-covered areas of the central High Plains and Intermountain West to at least 5 degrees F above normal in

a broad area stretching across the northern Plains, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic States. Following a mild spell,

frigid air poured into the West on January 11-12, signaling the onset of one of the three most damaging cold

outbreaks (along with December 1990 and 1998) of the last quarter-century in winter agricultural areas of

central and southern California and the Desert Southwest. The most significant Western freeze damage

occurred on January 13-14, although hard freezes (readings at or below 28 degrees F) lingered in parts of

California’s San Joaquin Valley for more than a week. Farther east, winter crop areas of the Deep South

escaped hard freezes, although temperatures briefly fell to near the freezing mark (32 degrees F) in southern

Texas on January 16-17 and in parts of southern Florida on January 30. Mid- to late-month temperatures

occasionally plunged below -20 degrees F across the Dakotas and the upper Midwest, stressing livestock that

had been accustomed to unusually mild weather for more than a month. However, livestock on the central

High Plains endured an especially difficult month due to chilly conditions and a substantial snow cover in the

wake of back-to-back December blizzards.

Wetter-than-normal weather prevailed in January from central and southern sections of the Rockies and Plains

northeastward into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes States. On the central Plains, a persistent snow

cover favored overwintering wheat but maintained difficult conditions for livestock. Snow blanketed much of

the southern Plains on January 19-20 and persisted for several days. Farther north, however, mild, breezy

weather on the northern Plains eroded wheat’s protective snow cover and left the crop exposed to weather

extremes. Meanwhile, occasional snow fell across much of the Midwest, but heavy rain in the Ohio Valley

triggered lowland flooding and left fields unfavorably wet. In contrast, near- to below-normal precipitation

fell across the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States. Conditions were especially dry across southern Florida,

maintaining the need for citrus irrigation. Elsewhere, only light precipitation fell west of the Rockies,

increasing concerns about summer water supplies. By month’s end, Western snowpacks were particularly

meager in the Sierra Nevada, the Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest.

January Agricultural Summary

Temperatures averaging above normal across the northern and eastern Great Plains and throughout the East

contrasted sharply with below-normal average temperatures over much of the West and into the central and

southern Plains during the month. Significant precipitation fell across the Pacific Northwest, over much of

the central and southern Rockies and Plains, and throughout the East. Accumulations well above normal

stretched north and east from the southern Rockies and Plains into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes

region. Scattered, mostly light precipitation prevailed over most of California and the Desert Southwest,

across the northern Plains, and in southern Florida.

In California and the Desert Southwest, hard freezes mid-month caused major damage to citrus and other

crops. In the San Joaquin Valley, temperatures at or below 28 degrees F persisted for over a week, with some

areas being exposed to the damaging cold for more than 80 hours during the period. While citrus sustained

the bulk of the damage, artichokes, avocados, broccoli, strawberries, and a variety of other vegetables were

also affected. Damage assessments were on-going at month’s end.

In the northern Great Plains, drier and warmer than normal conditions contributed to sparse snow cover,

which left much of the winter wheat crop unprotected against extreme overnight temperatures. Snow across

the central and southern Plains provided good protection to winter wheat, but continued to stress livestock and

maintained the need for heavy supplemental feeding.

Moderate precipitation across Texas and extending northeast to the lower Great Lakes was beneficial for

small grains and other crops. However, heavy rain throughout the Ohio Valley caused some lowland flooding

and left many fields and pastures excessively soggy, making conditions difficult for livestock.

Across the Southeast, warmer than normal temperatures combined with beneficial rains to provide favorable

conditions for small grains. Growers in most areas were preparing land for spring planting, while sugarcane

harvest was active throughout the month in Florida. Dry conditions across southern Florida maintained the

need for irrigation of citrus crops.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 13 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for the 2006 crop year is forecast at 29.8 million tons, of which

28.1 million tons is expected to be for sugar and 1.63 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and

seed is up 1 percent from the previous forecast and 12 percent above last year’s hurricane affected crop. 

Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 908,800 acres for sugar and seed during the 2006 crop year, unchanged

from the previous forecast but 1 percent below last year. If realized, area harvested will be the smallest since

1996. Yield is forecast at 32.7 tons per acre, compared with the January forecast of 32.4 tons and last year’s

estimate of 28.9 tons.

The yield in Florida for sugar and seed, at 35.7 tons per acre, is up 0.7 ton from last month and up 3.9 tons

from last year when the crop suffered significant damage from hurricanes. Harvest in Florida continued

mostly on schedule during January but was slowed somewhat at the end of the month due to heavy rainfall. 

Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2006-07 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.57 million tons, unchanged from the

January 1 forecast but up 27 percent from last season's final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's

grapefruit production is forecast at 26.0 million boxes (1.11 million tons), unchanged from the January

forecast but 35 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes

(820,000 tons). The all white grapefruit forecast is 9.00 million boxes (383,000 tons), unchanged from

January but 38 percent above last season’s final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.0 million

boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from January but 33 percent above last season's final utilization. Both

average fruit size and fruit drop have increased since last month, which is attributed to the generally warm

temperatures in January. Overall, fruit quality has been reported as excellent. Arizona, California, and Texas

grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from January. Updated forecasts will be published in March.

Tangerines: The 2006-07 U.S. tangerine forecast is 377,000 tons, unchanged from the January forecast but

down 10 percent from last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at

4.60 million boxes (219,000 tons), unchanged from the January forecast but down 16 percent from last

season’s utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Early variety tangerine harvest is nearly complete, while the row

count survey shows only 11 percent of the later maturing Honey tangerine rows have been harvested. Arizona

and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from January. Updated forecasts will be published in

March.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.20 million boxes (54,000 tons), up 9 percent from the January 1

forecast but down 14 percent from last season’s final utilized production. The row count survey conducted

January 30-31 shows 19 percent of the rows remain to be harvested.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.41 million pounds for January, up 9 percent from

December but down 17 percent from January 2006. Area in crop totaled 2,350 acres, unchanged from last

month but up 3 percent from a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,135 acres in January, unchanged from

December but 37 percent lower than January 2006. Cool, wet, and windy conditions during January were

reported in papaya growing areas. Heavy rains saturated orchards and growers stepped up spraying efforts to

minimize disease outbreaks.

Florida Citrus: Temperatures in Florida’s citrus producing regions were generally warmer than normal

during January with daytime highs in the low 80s recorded. Toward the end of the month, a cold front

dropped temperatures into the low to mid 30s over much of the citrus growing region. Light, scattered frost

was reported on the ground but not in the citrus trees. No damage to fruit or new growth was reported. All

areas remain relatively dry with lakes and canals at low levels. Most growers irrigated only when necessary to

reduce tree stress or before a cold front in order to prevent flushes of new growth. Nevertheless, new growth

and flower buds were forming by the end of the month, and some trees showed nearly open blossoms. 

Harvest of early and midseason oranges was at peak level all month with most fruit being processed. 

Grapefruit harvest continued to increase for both domestic and export fresh utilization. Packing house

eliminations and some field run fruit were processed. Citrus growers and caretakers prepared for harvest,

while in harvested groves they hedged and topped trees and applied fertilizer.

California Citrus: Harvest of navel oranges, mandarins, tangerines, and lemons continued until below

freezing temperatures struck the State in mid-January. Citrus growers irrigated their groves and ran wind
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 14 NASS, USDA

machines to help protect fruit, however severe damage was reported in most citrus growing areas. Citrus

damage is still being assessed. Harvest of oranges for juice is continuing.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Stone fruit and pomegranate cultural practices continued throughout

the month of January. These practices included applications of fertilizer, herbicides, and dormant sprays, as

well as pruning, shredding, and pushing out orchards for replanting. Persimmon harvest continued for Fuyu

and Hachiya varieties. Freezing temperatures in mid-January led to reports of damaged avocado trees and

fruit, but final damage is still being assessed. Grape vineyard activities included pruning, trellis system repair,

and application of herbicides. Vineyard cover crops emerged. Strawberry nursery stock digging continued

throughout the month. Olive orchard pruning and brush shredding continued in Tulare County. Almond,

walnut, and pistachio growers pruned, shredded, irrigated, applied herbicides, and pushed out old orchards for

replanting. Walnut growers applied soil amendments. Cold weather provided ample chilling hours for stone

fruit and nut growers.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 15 NASS, USDA

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of

the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on

administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is

determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are

conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of

production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in

October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for

navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Due to severe weather conditions in California and the

Desert Southwest, some survey procedures have been changed for this season. The grower and packer

surveys have been moved up to March, with an additional packer survey in April. The March objective

measurement survey in California will not be conducted.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root

Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between

the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. 

The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of

the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made

concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming

that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you

exclude the 6 abnormal production years (4 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square

Error" is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will

not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.3 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding abnormal

seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.4 percent,

or 5.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have

averaged 362,000 tons (308,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 745,000 tons

(3,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been

below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal

seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or

overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2007 16 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics

Service to contact for additional information.

Jeff Geuder, Chief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head ................................................. (202) 720-2127

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-5944

Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-8068

Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed ................................ (202) 720-9526

Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-7688

Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds ...................... (202) 720-7369

King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 690-3234

Greg Thessen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops ........................ (202) 720-2127

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section

Lance Honig, Head . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco .................... (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries ....................................... (202) 720-2157

Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits .................................. (202) 720-5412

Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4215

Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils,

Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

Wrinkled Seed Peas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-3250

Faye Propsom- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

Plums, Prunes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4285
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Agriculture at the Crossroads: 

Energy, Farm & Rural Policy 

March 1-2, 2007

Crystal Gateway

 Marriott Hotel

Arlington, Virginia

The Forum will feature Secretary Mike Johanns, distinguished

guest speakers, and a panel of America’s leading CEOs

focusing on the impact of bioenergy on agriculture. Attendees

at the 83rd annual Outlook Forum will include top officials,

industry analysts, business leaders, farmers and ranchers, and

other experts in agriculture. 

! $300 if you register by Feb. 5, 2007

! $350 if you register after Feb. 5, 2007 

For a program preview & to register, go to:

www.usda.gov/oce/forum 

! Topical sessions, including luncheon and dinner

speakers

! Networking opportunities, 1,500 expected to attend 

Find full program and registration details at

agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to 2007 Outlook Forum, Room

4426 South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812.