Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released February 10, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department 

of Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Unchanged from January Forecast

The United States all orange forecast for the 2013-2014 season is 7.39 million tons, unchanged from the previous 

forecast but down 11 percent from the 2012-2013 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 115 million boxes 

(5.18 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 14 percent from last season’s final utilization. 

Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 54.0 million boxes (2.43 million tons), unchanged from the 

previous forecast but down 20 percent from last season. The Row Count Survey conducted on January 28-29, 2014, 

showed about 75 percent of the Early-Midseason rows and 87 percent of the Navel rows had been harvested. The Florida 

Valencia orange forecast, at 61.0 million boxes (2.75 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 

8 percent from last season’s final utilization. California and Texas forecasts are carried forward from January.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2013-2014 season is 1.61 gallons per box at 

42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the January forecast but up 1 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.59 gallons per 

box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.53 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last season’s yield of 1.51 

gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.69 gallons per box, unchanged from last year’s final yield. All 

projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. 
2 Crop Production (February 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

This report was approved on February 10, 2014.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Michael T. Scuse

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

James M. Harris
Crop Production (February 2014) 3

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2012 and 2013 ................................ 4

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2012-2013 and Forecasted 

February 1, 2014 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2013 and 2014..................... 6

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 2013 and 2014 ......................... 8

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2013 and 2014 (Domestic Units).................................................................... 10

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2013 and 2014....................................................................... 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation Map ................................................................................................................................... 12

Departure from Normal Temperature Map........................................................................................................................... 12

January Weather Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 13

January Agricultural Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 13

Crop Comments.................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15

Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16
4 Crop Production (February 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2012 and 2013

Use and State

Area harvested Yield per acre 1 Production 1

2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (tons) (tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

For sugar

Florida .........................................................

Hawaii 2.......................................................

Louisiana 2..................................................

Texas 2........................................................

United States ..............................................

For seed

Florida .........................................................

Hawaii 2.......................................................

Louisiana 2..................................................

Texas 2........................................................

United States ..............................................

For sugar and seed

Florida .........................................................

Hawaii 2.......................................................

Louisiana 2..................................................

Texas 2........................................................

United States ..............................................

396.0

15.9

400.0

43.0

854.9

17.0

1.5

28.0

1.0

47.5

413.0

17.4

428.0

44.0

902.4

397.0

16.0

410.0

34.1

857.1

16.0

1.5

30.0

1.0

48.5

413.0

17.5

440.0

35.1

905.6

36.6

79.4

33.0

35.9

35.7

42.7

30.0

33.0

32.0

36.4

36.9

75.1

33.0

35.8

35.7

36.6

85.5

32.0

42.4

35.5

43.3

30.0

32.0

37.0

35.8

36.9

80.7

32.0

42.3

35.6

14,494

1,262

13,200

1,544

30,500

726

45

924

32

1,727

15,220

1,307

14,124

1,576

32,227

14,530

1,368

13,120

1,446

30,464

693

45

960

37

1,735

15,223

1,413

14,080

1,483

32,199

1 Net tons.

2 Estimates are carried forward from the Crop Production 2013 Summary released January 2014.
Crop Production (February 2014) 5

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2012-2013 and Forecasted 

February 1, 2014

[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]

Crop and State

Utilized production boxes 1 Utilized production ton equivalent

2012-2013 2013-2014 2012-2013 2013-2014

(1,000 boxes) (1,000 boxes) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Oranges

Early, mid, and Navel 2

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

Valencia

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

All

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

Grapefruit

White

 Florida ..............................................

Colored

 Florida ..............................................

All

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

Tangerines and mandarins

Arizona 3 4.............................................

California 3 4..........................................

Florida ..................................................

United States ........................................

Lemons 3

Arizona .................................................

California ..............................................

United States ........................................

Tangelos

Florida ..................................................

44,000

67,100

1,499

112,599

12,500

66,500

289

79,289

56,500

133,600

1,788

191,888

5,250

13,100

4,000

18,350

6,100

28,450

200

13,000

3,280

16,480

1,800

21,000

22,800

1,000

42,000

54,000

1,455

97,455

11,500

61,000

370

72,870

53,500

115,000

1,825

170,325

4,500

12,500

4,000

17,000

5,370

26,370

200

13,200

3,500

16,900

1,785

20,000

21,785

800

1,760

3,020

64

4,844

500

2,993

12

3,505

2,260

6,013

76

8,349

223

557

160

780

244

1,184

8

520

156

684

72

840

912

45

1,680

2,430

62

4,172

460

2,745

16

3,221

2,140

5,175

78

7,393

191

531

160

722

215

1,097

8

528

166

702

71

800

871

36

1 Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in 

Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90.

2 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines 

in Texas and Temples in Florida.

3 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

4

Includes tangelos and tangors.
6 Crop Production (February 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2013 and 2014

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2013 2014 2013 2014

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all ................................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all ............................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all ...........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all ........................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 2....................................................................

3,480

95,365

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

3,010

720

2,489

1,446

8,061

(NA)

56,156

43,090

1,470

11,596

1,348.0

(X)

181

45.0

1,067.0

1.7

175.5

76,533

1,575.5

10,407.0

10,206.0

201.0

1,198.1

(NA)

(NA)

18.0

1,354.7

860.0

362.0

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,066.5

75.9

48.7

941.9

(NA)

115.7

(NA)

41,892

3,000

87,668

6,256

58,257

17,763

40,494

1,030

638

2,468

278

6,530

380

45,157

32,402

1,421

11,334

1,264.5

(X)

172

43.4

1,042.0

1.7

170.0

75,869

1,474.6

7,664.4

7,465.0

199.4

1,154.2

905.6

355.7

14.1

1,311.3

797.0

347.0

(NA)

7.3

35.2

68.8

1,052.0

72.9

47.5

931.6

24.5

113.2

0.4

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (February 2014) 7

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2013 and 2014 (continued)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per acre Production

2013 2014 2013 2014

(1,000) (1,000)

Grains and hay

Barley ................................................................................... bushels

Corn for grain ........................................................................ bushels

Corn for silage ............................................................................tons

Hay, all .......................................................................................tons

 Alfalfa .....................................................................................tons

 All other ..................................................................................tons

Oats ...................................................................................... bushels

Proso millet ........................................................................... bushels

Rice 3........................................................................................... cwt

Rye ....................................................................................... bushels

Sorghum for grain ................................................................. bushels

Sorghum for silage ......................................................................tons

Wheat, all ............................................................................. bushels

 Winter ............................................................................... bushels

 Durum ............................................................................... bushels

 Other spring ...................................................................... bushels

Oilseeds

Canola ...................................................................................pounds

Cottonseed .................................................................................tons

Flaxseed ............................................................................... bushels

Mustard seed .........................................................................pounds

Peanuts .................................................................................pounds

Rapeseed ..............................................................................pounds

Safflower ...............................................................................pounds

Soybeans for beans .............................................................. bushels

Sunflower ..............................................................................pounds

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 3............................................................................... bales

 Upland 3................................................................................ bales

 American Pima 3................................................................... bales

Sugarbeets .................................................................................tons

Sugarcane ..................................................................................tons

Tobacco .................................................................................pounds

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas 3.................................................................. cwt

Dry edible beans 3....................................................................... cwt

Dry edible peas 3......................................................................... cwt

Lentils 3........................................................................................ cwt

Wrinkled seed peas ..................................................................... cwt

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ......................................................................pounds

Hops ......................................................................................pounds

Peppermint oil ........................................................................pounds

Potatoes, all ................................................................................. cwt

 Spring ...................................................................................... cwt

 Summer ................................................................................... cwt

 Fall .......................................................................................... cwt

Spearmint oil .........................................................................pounds

Sweet potatoes ............................................................................ cwt

Taro (Hawaii) .........................................................................pounds

71.7

158.8

18.8

2.33

3.24

1.94

64.0

28.9

7,694

27.6

59.6

14.3

47.2

47.4

43.6

47.1

1,748

(X)

19.5

846

4,006

1,141

1,232

43.3

1,378

826

807

1,530

28.5

35.6

2,036

1,617

1,867

1,960

1,446

(NA)

960

1,969

89

416

304

363

427

119

219

(NA)

215,078

13,925,147

117,851

135,946

57,581

78,365

65,879

18,436

189,886

7,669

389,046

5,420

2,129,695

1,534,253

61,913

533,529

2,210,505

4,406.0

3,356

36,727

4,174,180

1,940

209,461

3,288,833

2,032,725

13,186.7

12,551.0

635.7

32,837

32,199

724,108

228

24,486

15,620

5,019

275

7,000

69,343.9

6,132

437,483

22,137

17,240

398,106

2,926

24,785

3,100

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.

3 Yield in pounds.
8 Crop Production (February 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2013 and 2014

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2013 2014 2013 2014

(hectares) (hectares) (hectares) (hectares)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2......................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 3....................................................................

1,408,320

38,593,260

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,218,120

291,380

1,007,270

585,180

3,262,210

(NA)

22,725,770

17,438,090

594,890

4,692,790

545,520

(X)

73,250

18,210

431,800

690

71,020

30,972,140

637,590

4,211,610

4,130,270

81,340

484,860

(NA)

(NA)

7,280

548,230

348,030

146,500

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

431,600

30,720

19,710

381,180

(NA)

46,820

(NA)

16,953,270

1,214,070

35,478,360

2,531,740

23,576,030

7,188,510

16,387,520

416,830

258,190

998,770

112,500

2,642,630

153,780

18,274,590

13,112,770

575,060

4,586,760

511,730

(X)

69,610

17,560

421,690

690

68,800

30,703,430

596,760

3,101,710

3,021,010

80,700

467,090

366,490

143,940

5,710

530,670

322,540

140,430

(NA)

2,950

14,250

27,840

425,730

29,500

19,220

377,010

9,910

45,810

160

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (February 2014) 9

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2013 and 2014 (continued)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per hectare Production

2013 2014 2013 2014

(metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain ......................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa .............................................................................

 All other ..........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain ...............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower ............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ...........................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ...............................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2.....................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall .................................................................................

Spearmint oil ......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................

3.86

9.97

42.23

5.23

7.27

4.34

2.29

1.62

8.62

1.73

3.74

31.97

3.17

3.18

2.93

3.17

1.96

(X)

1.22

0.95

4.49

1.28

1.38

2.92

1.55

0.93

0.90

1.72

63.78

79.70

2.28

1.81

2.09

2.20

1.62

(NA)

1.07

2.21

0.10

46.61

34.04

40.68

47.90

0.13

24.54

(NA)

4,682,770

353,715,030

106,912,630

123,328,140

52,236,600

71,091,530

956,230

418,120

8,613,080

194,800

9,882,220

4,916,940

57,960,800

41,755,520

1,685,000

14,520,280

1,002,670

3,997,060

85,250

16,660

1,893,380

880

95,010

89,507,370

922,030

2,871,070

2,732,660

138,410

29,789,230

29,210,440

328,450

10,340

1,110,670

708,510

227,660

12,470

3,180

31,450

2,780

19,843,900

1,004,120

781,990

18,057,790

1,330

1,124,230

1,410

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2

Total may not add due to rounding.

3 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
10 Crop Production (February 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2013 and 2014 (Domestic Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2013-2014 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2013 2014

(1,000) (1,000)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit .....................................................................................................................tons

Lemons ........................................................................................................................tons

Oranges .......................................................................................................................tons

Tangelos (Florida) ........................................................................................................tons

Tangerines and mandarins ...........................................................................................tons

Noncitrus

Apples ........................................................................................................... 1,000 pounds

Apricots ........................................................................................................................tons

Bananas (Hawaii) ....................................................................................................pounds

Grapes .........................................................................................................................tons

Olives (California) ........................................................................................................tons

Papayas (Hawaii) ....................................................................................................pounds

Peaches .......................................................................................................................tons

Pears ...........................................................................................................................tons

Prunes, dried (California) .............................................................................................tons

Prunes and plums (excludes California) .......................................................................tons

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ..................................................................................pounds

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .........................................................................................tons

Pecans, in-shell .......................................................................................................pounds

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........................................................................................tons

Maple syrup ............................................................................................................ gallons

1,184

912

8,349

45

684

3,253

1,097

871

7,393

36

702

1 Production years are 2012-2013 and 2013-2014.
Crop Production (February 2014) 11

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2013 and 2014

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2013-2014 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2013 2014

(metric tons) (metric tons)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit ...........................................................................................................................

Lemons ..............................................................................................................................

Oranges ..............................................................................................................................

Tangelos (Florida) ..............................................................................................................

Tangerines and mandarins .................................................................................................

Noncitrus

Apples ................................................................................................................................

Apricots ..............................................................................................................................

Bananas (Hawaii) ...............................................................................................................

Grapes ...............................................................................................................................

Olives (California) ...............................................................................................................

Papayas (Hawaii) ...............................................................................................................

Peaches .............................................................................................................................

Pears ..................................................................................................................................

Prunes, dried (California) ....................................................................................................

Prunes and plums (excludes California) ..............................................................................

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ..............................................................................................

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...............................................................................................

Pecans, in-shell ..................................................................................................................

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ...............................................................................................

Maple syrup ........................................................................................................................

1,074,110

827,350

7,574,090

40,820

620,510

16,260

995,180

790,160

6,706,820

32,660

636,840

1 Production years are 2012-2013 and 2013-2014.
12 Crop Production (February 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production (February 2014) 13

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

January Weather Summary

California’s drought crisis deepened, despite some late-month rain and snow. For much of the month, the western 

United States, particularly California, endured warm, dry conditions. As a result, California, the Great Basin, and parts of 

the Southwest faced nearly insurmountable odds of overcoming huge season-to-date precipitation deficits by the end of 

winter - and the likelihood of completing a third year of drought. In addition to California’s impending water-supply 

crisis, drought impacts included poor rangeland conditions, severe stress on rain-fed winter grains, and depleted soil 

moisture reserves.

In stark contrast, colder-than-normal conditions accompanied occasional winter storms across the eastern half of the 

Nation. Several periods of bitterly cold weather gripped the Midwest, South, and East, resulting in the lowest temperatures 

in one to three decades. Frigid conditions were especially persistent across the upper Midwest, maintaining stress on 

livestock in the wake of a cold December. Among a number of notable storms were an early-month blizzard in parts of the 

Midwest and a late-month snow and ice event across the Deep South.

Between the Western warmth and Eastern chill, highly variable temperatures affected the Plains. In addition, January 

precipitation was scarce across the Nation’s mid-section, leaving winter wheat exposed at times to bitterly cold 

conditions. More specifically, wheat in parts of Nebraska and environs was not insulated by snow when temperatures 

plunged below 0°F on January 6, 23, and 27-28. As a result of unfavorable weather, wheat conditions declined during 

January. For example, the portion of the wheat rated good to excellent fell from 70 percent to 60 percent in South Dakota; 

65 percent to 46 percent in Nebraska; 60 percent to 46 percent in Montana; 63 percent to 36 percent in Oklahoma; and 

58 percent to 35 percent in Kansas. Texas wheat, already stressed by drought, was rated 19 percent good to excellent and 

41 percent very poor to poor by month’s end.

January Agricultural Summary

January temperatures were below-normal in most areas east of the Great Plains. However, some areas in California, Idaho, 

Montana, Nevada, and Wyoming recorded temperatures for the month over 6°F above normal. Almost all areas east of the 

Mississippi River recorded over 1 inch of precipitation for the month, while rain and snowfall in the western United States 

was much more scattered. The lack of rainfall in California and Nevada led to increasingly more severe drought 

conditions across the area. 

As the month began, growers in most citrus producing States were harvesting early and mid-season citrus crops. Despite 

initial dry conditions and only average to above-average precipitation for the month in Florida, the majority of the active 

commercial citrus groves in the State were drought free. Field workers reported small sizes on all varieties. 

Above-average temperatures in California have had a positive effect on irrigated fields, fruit, and vegetable crops in the 

State. Abnormally dry conditions have caused dryland small grains to experience varying levels of stress and poor 

germination. Range and non-irrigated pasture conditions continue to be rated in mostly poor to fair condition. 

Little to no snow cover in most of the Plains region has had a negative effect on winter wheat conditions with many 

producers concerned with winterkill on their crop. By February 2, winter wheat rated in good to excellent condition was 

35 percent in Kansas, 36 percent in Oklahoma, and 19 percent in Texas. 

Crop Comments

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 800,000 boxes (36,000 tons), down 20 percent from the January forecast and last 

season’s final utilization. The Row Count Survey conducted January 28-29 showed 67 percent of the rows were harvested. 

Grapefruit: The 2013-2014 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.10 million tons, up 2 percent from the January 

forecast but down 7 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, fruit size is slightly above the minimum and 

droppage is the highest of any non-hurricane season for both white and colored grapefruit. California and Texas grapefruit 

production forecasts are carried forward from the January 1 forecast.
14 Crop Production (February 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 702,000 tons, up 1 percent 

from the January forecast and up 3 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, early tangerine harvest is 

complete and droppage is near average. Arizona and California estimates are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. 

Florida citrus: High temperatures reported during the month ranged from the low 70s to the low 80s. Rainfall was light 

as the dry season continued. The abnormally dry conditions observed in the citrus producing regions continued, but the 

western area remained drought free. Field workers reported small sizes on all varieties. Grove activity included 

harvesting, resetting of new trees, pushing of dead groves, replanting new citrus, mowing, fertilizing, and psyllid control. 

About 91 percent of packinghouses have opened and begun shipping small quantities of fruit. Fifteen of nineteen 

processing plants were open so far this season.

California citrus: Harvest of navel oranges, Satsuma mandarins, Clementine tangerines, and lemons continued at a slow 

pace. Murcott tangerine harvest began. Grapefruit and pommelo harvests were complete in Tulare County. Minneola 

tangelo harvest was expected to start soon.

California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Growers across California reported concerns due to prolonged lack of rain. 

Orchards and vineyards required irrigation in January due to drought conditions. Pruning of fruit trees continued. Early 

variety stone fruit trees were beginning to bloom with the warm weather; pre-emergent sprays were applied throughout 

the month. Cherry growers applied lime sulfur to their orchards. Early blueberry varieties were blooming in the San 

Joaquin Valley. New blueberry fields were planted. Strawberry transplants were planted in Monterey County. Avocados 

were harvested. Farmers continued to prune kiwi and grape vines. Discing, shredding brush, and trellis work were also 

ongoing. Grapes in the Central Valley were experiencing bud swell early due to the warm temperatures. Pruning, 

irrigating, and spraying of almond, pistachio, and walnut orchards continued. Almond trees were close to bloom. Dormant 

sprays were applied to nut trees. Nut tree removals were ongoing and land was prepared for tree planting.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2013 is forecast at 32.2 million tons, down fractionally from 

both January and last year. Producers intend to harvest 905,600 acres for sugar and seed during the 2013 crop year, 

unchanged from the previous forecast. Yield for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.6 tons per acre, unchanged from January. 

In Florida, rain and freezing temperatures in January delayed some harvesting. Estimates for Hawaii, Texas, and 

Louisiana were carried forward from January.
Crop Production (February 2014) 15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which 

produces about 68 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season 

based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or 

special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and 

subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the 

previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer 

surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in 

September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were 

also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural 

Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The February 1 production forecast will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month 

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in 

September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including 

information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization 

and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square 

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production 

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage 

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean 

Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 

final end-of-season estimate, assuming factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent 

years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 3.3 percent for both the normal and the 

three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons). This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the 

current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent. Chances are 9 

out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.8 percent, or 5.6 percent, excluding abnormal 

seasons.

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 

298,000 tons (290,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of 

exclusions. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 

8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply the February 1 forecast this year 

is likely to understate or overstate final production.
16 Crop Production (February 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact 

for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch .......................................................................................................(202) 720-2127

Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section .................................................................................... (202) 720-2127

 Cody Brokmeyer – Peanuts, Rice..................................................................................................... (202) 720-7688

 Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye, Wheat .............................................................................................. (202) 720-8068

 Angie Considine – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................................................... (202) 720-5944

 Tony Dahlman – Crop Weather, Barley, Hay .................................................................................. (202) 720-7621

 Chris Hawthorn – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet .............................................................................. (202) 720-9526

 Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..................................................................(202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............................................(202) 720-2127

 Jorge Garcia-Pratts – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries...............................(202) 720-2127

 Jorge Garcia-Pratts – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ............................................(202) 720-2127

 Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ...............................................(202) 720-4288

 LaKeya Jones – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits............................................(202) 720-5412

 Dave Losh – Hops............................................................................................................................(360) 709-2400 

 Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,

 Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ..................................................(202) 720-3250

 Daphne Schauber – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ...............................................(202) 720-4285
Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:

 All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

 Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free 

subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the “Follow NASS” box under “Receive reports by Email,” 

click on “National” or “State” to select the reports you would like to receive. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 

7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 

 

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program.intake@usda.gov. 
United States 

Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Outlook Forum

 

February 20-21, 2014 

Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel

Arlington, Virginia 

The Changing Face of Agriculture

USDA’s annual event brings together leadership 

from throughout the agricultural community to discuss the 

Changing Face of Agriculture. 

Session topics include: 

New Agricultural Census

Agriculture Supporting Our Veterans 

Women in Agriculture

Agriculture & Social Media

Food Price and Farm Income Outlooks

Commodity and Weather Outlooks

U.S. Farm Land 

International Trade

Conservation

Nutrition & Food Safety

Nanotechnology

Invasive Pests

Know Your Farmer, Know Your Food

Agroforestry

Climate Variability

Rural Economies

Disease Challenges & the Citrus Industry

Extension’s 100-Year Anniversary 

 www.usda.gov/oce/forum