Cr Pr 2-2 (3-01)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released March 8, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

U.S. Orange Production Unchanged from February

The U.S. all orange March 1 forecast of the 2000-01 crop is 12.4 million tons, unchanged from February’s

forecast but 6 percent less than last season’s final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 223 million

boxes (10.0 million tons), the same as last month but 4 percent less than the 1999-2000 final utilization. The

early and midseason orange forecast remains at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), 5 percent lower than

the previous season. Harvest is nearing completion and is expected to be finished by the end of March. 

Florida’s Valencia forecast, at 96.0 million boxes (4.32 million tons), is unchanged from February but is

3 percent lower than last season’s final utilization. The Valencia growth rate during February was near the

average, but size continues below average. Loss from droppage remains below the previous ten-season

average. Harvest has just begun with only a very low percentage of rows harvested. Arizona, California, and

Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the February forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is increased from 1.54 to 1.58 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is increased to 1.54 gallons per box from 1.51

last month. The Valencia portion is also increased and is expected to yield 1.65 gallons per box. All of the

projected increases in yield are dependent on processors and harvesters following similar patterns of the past

several seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on March 8, 2001.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Keith J. Collins

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................5

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 1999-2000

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

443.0

35.4

435.0

28.0

941.4

17.0

1.9

30.0

3.0

51.9

460.0

37.3

465.0

31.0

993.3

437.0

32.6

465.0

46.0

980.6

18.0

2.8

35.0

0.6

56.4

455.0

35.4

500.0

46.6

1,037.0

35.0

81.7

32.7

34.1

35.7

35.0

35.8

32.7

26.0

33.2

35.0

79.4

32.7

33.3

35.5

37.0

80.7

30.0

37.7

35.2

39.0

34.0

30.0

25.0

33.0

37.1

77.0

30.0

37.5

35.0

15,505

2,892

14,225

955

33,577

595

68

981

78

1,722

16,100

2,960

15,206

1,033

35,299

16,169

2,631

13,950

1,734

34,484

702

95

1,050

15

1,862

16,871

2,726

15,000

1,749

36,346 1 Net tons. 2 Current estimates carried forward from previous forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2000-2001

Month

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested 2000 2001

2000 2001 2000 2001

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jan

Feb

3,280

3,075

2,690

2,630

1,635

1,675

1,870

1,845

3,175

3,440

4,835

4,295
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1998-99, 1999-00 and Forecasted March 1, 2001 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 Other 5

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus

 FL

550

21,000

112,000

1,250

134,800

600

15,000

74,000

180

89,780

1,150

36,000

186,000

1,430

224,580

1,800

17,800

28,700

550

750

7,300

47,050

6,100

61,200

950

1,500

4,950

7,400

3,450

16,200

19,650

2,550

80

600

40,000

134,000

1,540

176,140

500

27,000

99,000

200

126,700

1,100

67,000

233,000

1,740

302,840

1,950

20,900

31,900

600

500

7,000

53,400

5,930

66,830

850

2,300

7,000

10,150

3,100

19,600

22,700

2,200

110

500

34,000

127,000

1,900

163,400

550

25,000

96,000

200

121,750

1,050

59,000

223,000

2,100

285,150

1,700

20,000

29,000

600

7,200

49,000

6,500

63,300

800

2,200

5,600

8,600

3,400

21,000

24,400

2,100

40

21

787

5,040

53

5,901

22

563

3,330

8

3,923

43

1,350

8,370

61

9,824

81

757

1,220

23

25

244

2,000

244

2,513

36

56

235

327

131

616

747

115

4

22

1,500

6,030

66

7,618

19

1,013

4,455

8

5,495

41

2,513

10,485

74

13,113

88

888

1,356

25

17

235

2,269

237

2,758

32

86

333

451

118

745

863

99

5

19

1,275

5,715

81

7,090

21

938

4,320

8

5,287

40

2,213

10,035

89

12,377

77

850

1,233

20

241

2,083

260

2,604

30

83

266

379

129

798

927

95

2 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early

Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5 "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01

crop. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2000-2001

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2000 2001 2000 2001

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,844.0

79,545.0

4,477.0

440.0

3,065.0

1,335.0

9,195.0

62,529.0

43,348.0

3,937.0

15,244.0

1,567.0

536.0

46.0

1,543.0

4.0

215.0

74,496.0

2,792.0

15,536.5

15,365.0

171.5

1,564.2

5.2

1,756.2

188.0

217.0

1,387.3

17.2

77.4

64.7

1,228.0

97.3

41,309.0

16.8

5,201.0

72,732.0

5,868.0

59,854.0

23,077.0

36,777.0

2,324.0

370.0

3,044.0

302.0

7,723.0

265.0

53,028.0

35,022.0

3,572.0

14,434.0

1,509.0

517.0

42.9

1,315.5

3.9

197.0

72,718.0

2,629.0

13,097.5

12,927.0

170.5

1,378.1

1,037.0

485.7

4.1

1,606.4

179.0

214.0

6.8

0.3

36.1

89.5

1,351.6

17.0

75.6

61.8

1,197.2

21.7

94.2

0.5

14.0

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2001 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2000-2001

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2000 2001 2000 2001

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

61.1

137.1

16.8

2.54

3.48

1.95

64.2

19.8

6,278

28.5

60.9

10.8

41.9

44.6

30.7

38.2

1,337

20.8

852

2,499

1,474

1,434

38.1

1,363

631

625

1,119

23.6

35.0

2,264

1,780

1,646

1,955

1,415

1,340

50,000

1,871

77

382

292

290

301

393

101

145

268

317,865

9,968,358

98,538

152,183

80,347

71,836

149,195

7,320

191,113

8,619

470,070

2,863

2,223,440

1,562,733

109,805

550,902

2,016,951

6,439

10,730

36,570

3,287,600

5,750

282,545

2,769,665

3,584,339

17,219.5

16,822.0

397.5

32,521

36,346

1,099,884

73

26,440

3,499

3,029

680

9,100

13,500

67,577

6,926

515,964

4,960

21,921

18,579

470,504

2,199

13,613

7,000

3,750

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2001 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1999-2001

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

1999 2000 2001

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lb

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,513

4

747

9,824

115

327

81

10,630.7

90.5

24,500.0

6,236.4

142.0

42,400.0

2,525.7

1,015.5

178.0

22.9

833,000

40.0

406,100

123,000

283.0

1,188

2,758

5

863

13,113

99

451

88

10,598.0

99.9

28,500.0

7,315.3

53.0

53,000.0

2,610.9

975.2

220.0

23.9

710,000

24.0

206,600

243,000

239.0

1,231

2,604

2

927

12,377

95

379

77

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2001 crop year. 2 Production years are 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2000-01.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2000-2001

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2000 2001 2000 2001

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,365,010

32,191,070

1,811,800

178,060

1,240,370

540,260

3,721,120

25,304,860

17,542,500

1,593,260

6,169,090

634,150

216,910

18,620

624,440

1,620

87,010

30,147,790

1,129,890

6,287,470

6,218,060

69,400

633,020

2,100

710,720

76,080

87,820

561,430

6,960

31,320

26,180

496,960

39,380

16,717,340

6,800

2,104,790

29,433,910

2,374,720

24,222,320

9,339,030

14,883,280

940,500

149,740

1,231,880

122,220

3,125,420

107,240

21,459,900

14,173,050

1,445,550

5,841,300

610,680

209,220

17,360

532,370

1,580

79,720

29,428,250

1,063,930

5,300,430

5,231,430

69,000

557,700

419,660

196,570

1,660

650,090

72,440

86,600

2,750

110

14,620

36,220

546,980

6,880

30,590

25,010

484,490

8,780

38,120

190

5,670

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2001 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not

harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2000-2001

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2000 2001 2000 2001

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.29

8.60

37.64

5.70

7.80

4.38

2.30

1.11

7.04

1.79

3.82

24.22

2.82

3.00

2.07

2.57

1.50

1.30

0.96

2.80

1.65

1.61

2.56

1.53

0.71

0.70

1.25

52.90

78.57

2.54

2.00

1.84

2.19

1.59

1.50

56.04

2.10

0.09

42.79

32.70

32.50

33.70

44.05

0.11

16.20

30.02

6,920,690

253,207,960

89,392,170

138,058,100

72,889,570

65,168,520

2,165,560

166,010

8,668,740

218,930

11,940,330

2,597,270

60,512,120

42,530,620

2,988,400

14,993,100

914,870

5,841,000

272,550

16,590

1,491,230

2,610

128,160

75,377,930

1,625,830

3,749,100

3,662,560

86,550

29,502,550

32,972,540

498,900

3,310

1,199,300

158,710

137,390

30,840

4,130

6,120

30,650

3,140

23,403,730

224,980

994,320

842,730

21,341,700

1,000

617,480

3,180

170,100

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2001 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1999-2001

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

1999 2000 2001

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,279,760

3,630

677,670

8,912,180

104,330

296,650

73,480

4,822,000

82,100

11,110

5,657,530

128,820

19,230

1,145,640

921,200

161,480

20,770

377,840

36,290

184,200

55,790

256,730

5,940

2,502,020

4,540

782,900

11,895,910

89,810

409,140

79,830

4,807,170

90,630

12,930

6,636,300

48,080

24,040

1,184,280

884,640

199,580

21,680

322,050

21,770

93,710

110,220

216,820

6,150

2,362,310

1,810

840,960

11,228,230

86,180

343,820

69,850

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2001 crop year. 2 Production years are 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2000-01.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 12 NASS, USDA

February Weather Summary

Storm systems continued to bypass the snow-deficient Northwest, instead charting a course across southern

California and the Southwest. Spring runoff and summer water-supply prospects improved in the Sierra

Nevada but worsened from the Cascades to the northern Rockies. Farther east, much of the storms’ energy

tracked northeastward across the central and southern Plains and into the Great Lakes region, causing

considerable lowland flooding and leaving standing water in some winter wheat fields. Heavy rain fell as far

east as the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys, but abruptly drier conditions prevailed just to the south,

including areas from southern Texas to the southern Atlantic region. Drought-stricken Florida remained

especially dry, further reducing freshwater reserves, maintaining heavy citrus irrigation requirements, and

fostering the spread of wildfires.

After a January respite, bitterly cold weather returned to the northern and central Plains and western Corn

Belt, where monthly temperatures ranged from 4 to 12 degrees F below normal. In addition, heavy snow

blanketed the upper Midwest, increasing the threat of spring snow-melt flooding from the eastern Dakotas to

the upper Mississippi Valley. Cool weather (as much as 4 degrees F below normal) also prevailed in

California’s Central Valley, combining with frequent showers to slow spring fieldwork and winter crop

development. In contrast, temperatures averaged 2 to 8 degrees F above normal across most of the East and

South, spurring pasture and winter grain development in the latter region.

February Agricultural Summary

Most of the central and southwestern United States received above normal precipitation during the month. 

The precipitation boosted soil moisture reserves, but streams and low-lying areas were occasionally flooded in

parts of the southern Great Plains, Mississippi Delta, and Tennessee Valley. Drought conditions continued in

the Florida peninsula, while drier-than-normal weather prevailed along the Gulf Coast, on the Atlantic Coastal

Plains, and through most of the Northeast. Most of the Pacific Northwest, adjacent areas of the northern

Great Plains, and interior parts of the Southwest received below-normal precipitation. Unprotected winter

wheat fields in the northern Great Plains were exposed to below-normal temperatures and strong winds. In

the southern Great Plains, winter grains were dormant early in the month due to cold weather, but growth

resumed when above-normal temperatures returned after mid-month. Below-normal temperatures hindered

growth of winter grains and forages in California.

In Florida, citrus caretakers irrigated groves to maintain tree conditions. Biological development gradually

accelerated as the month progressed due to above normal temperatures. Trees in well maintained groves

produced new growth and bloom buds, especially after mid-month. Citrus, sugarcane, and vegetable harvests

continued with virtually no rain delays. Rain aided growth of winter grains and forages in the Panhandle, but

dry weather prevented growth elsewhere.

Fieldwork steadily progressed in southern Texas, where precipitation was below normal. Corn, cotton, and

sorghum planting began in the Coastal Bend, Lower Valley, and South Texas regions. Adequate moisture

and warm weather aided germination and growth of early-planted fields. Some oat fields in South Texas

entered the heading stage. Cold, wet weather limited field preparations in northern areas of the State.

In California, wet weather frequently delayed fieldwork, including tillage, orchard and vineyard activities, and

fertilizer and pesticide applications. The precipitation provided beneficial moisture for development of

dryland crops, but growth of small grains was hindered by below-normal temperatures. Some early peach,

nectarine, and plum varieties produced bloom buds, but most of California’s orchards and vineyards remained

dormant due to cool weather.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2000-01 grapefruit crop for the United States is unchanged from February, at

2.60 million tons, but 6 percent less than last season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is 49.0 million boxes

(2.08 million tons), unchanged from the February forecast but 8 percent lower than the previous season. The

all white grapefruit forecast, which includes seedless and seedy varieties, remains at 20.0 million boxes

(850,000 tons). If realized, the crop size will be down 4 percent from last season. The colored seedless

utilization remains at 29.0 million boxes (1.23 million tons) but is 9 percent below the previous season’s final

utilization. Fruit size continues to increase, but still remains small in relation to most recent seasons. Loss

from droppage continues to be minimal this season, less than the 1999-2000 crop and below the ten-season

mean. Forecasts for Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from the January forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 13 NASS, USDA

Tangelos: Florida’s 2000-01 tangelo forecast, at 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons), is unchanged from

February but is 5 percent less than last season. This will be the smallest utilized production of tangelos

recorded since the 1968-69 season. Harvest is winding down rapidly with very few boxes certified in recent

weeks.

Tangerines: The 2000-01 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 379,000 tons, unchanged from February but

16 percent below last season’s record high utilization of 451,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop, at

5.60 million boxes (266,000 tons), is the same as the February forecast but 20 percent less than the record

high use of 7.00 million boxes (333,000 tons) last season. Their early tangerine harvest is virtually complete. 

The late season Honey variety tangerines remaining for harvest have shown a slight increase in size since the

end of January. However, the loss from droppage since August is 53 percent, nearly equal to the ten-season

average but much higher than last season. Arizona and California forecasts are carried forward from the

January forecast.

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast, at 1.70 million boxes (76,500 tons), is 6 percent less than the February

forecast and 13 percent lower than the 1.95 million boxes (88,000 tons) recorded last season. Objective

surveys indicated a slight reduction in the average size, which is the smallest in the ten-season series. Also,

loss from droppage increased from last month. The percent harvested to-date lags behind six of the previous

eight seasons. Estimated utilization by the end of February was 715,000 boxes.

K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2000-01 is final at 40,000 boxes (1,800 tons),

unchanged from February but 70,000 boxes fewer than last season. This equals the record low utilization of

the 1997-98 season.

Florida Citrus: The entire Florida citrus belt continued to be very dry during the month of February. There

were a few rainy days with measurable precipitation, but not enough to alleviate the dry conditions. Growers

and caretakers have been using all types of irrigation to maintain good tree condition. The drought is causing

a great deal of concern as water restrictions and dry wells could cause serious problems to Florida’s citrus

industry. The lack of precipitation could lead to higher amounts of salt intrusion in many of the coastal wells

and water sources. 

Harvest of early and midseason oranges was very active in early February, but by the month’s end weekly

movement was slowing considerably as supplies were running low. Grapefruit movement for both fresh and

process utilization increased toward the end of the month as more labor from the completed orange harvesting

crews became available. However, most processing plants are waiting for better maturity tests before taking

large amounts of grapefruit. Honey tangerine and tangelo movement continued active during February. 

Picking of Temples is gaining momentum for both fresh and process use. Caretakers have been very active

cutting cover crops prior to harvesting and for fire protection. Growers have been hedging and topping before

the full open bloom period. Dead trees and limbs are being stacked for future burning. There are very few

burn permits being issued due to the current dry conditions.

New growth and bloom buds for next season’s crop started to show in early February and by the end of the

month there were bloom buds of all sizes in all areas. There were even some Navel and Valencia orange trees

in full bloom and some showing petal drop.

California Citrus: Harvest of lemons, grapefruit, tangerines, and Navel oranges was slowed in February by

rainy weather. Good quality remains apparent for nearly all citrus fruits. The harvest of the Valencia orange

crop in the desert area began in late February.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: The wet weather throughout February kept growers from conducting

typical cultural activities in orchards and vineyards. Cultivating, fertilizing, pruning, and brush shredding

were active, however, when weather permitted. The frequent rains hampered bees from pollinating almond

trees. However, the much needed rainfall helped alleviate dry conditions. Early varieties of nectarines,

peaches, and plums pushed buds. Strawberry fields were weeded and plants were trimmed. Fields in some

locations were blooming.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.30 million pounds for February, a decrease of

11 percent from January but 25 percent higher than February 2000. Area in crop totaled 2,630 acres, down

2 percent from January and 14 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 1,845 acres, was

1 percent less than January but 10 percent higher than last February. Weather conditions during February
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 14 NASS, USDA

were variable. Dry conditions during the first week were followed by rains, sometimes heavy, the next two

weeks. Sunnier skies and light showers returned during the last week of February.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is estimated at 36.3 million tons, 3 percent above the

previous record of 35.3 million tons set last year, but unchanged from the previous estimate. Harvested acres

are estimated at a record high 1.04 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2000 crop year, 4 percent more

than the 1999 final harvested acres. Yield is estimated at 35.0 tons per acre, 0.5 ton below 1999, but

unchanged from the previous estimate.

Area harvested for sugar production is estimated at 980,600 acres, while area harvested for seed is estimated

at 56,400 acres. Cane for sugar production is estimated at 34.5 million tons, 3 percent above 1999, but

unchanged from the February 1 estimate.

Area harvested for sugar and seed is a record high 500,000 acres in Louisiana, however, production was

1 percent below 1999, due to drought conditions that reduced the average yield by 8 percent. Harvest

continued without delay in Florida.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 15 NASS, USDA

Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and

the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit

droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas

conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida State Statistical Office submits its

analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey

data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Reports from growers and packers in

Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. The March 1 orange production forecasts

for these three States are carried forward from January. 

Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecast will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End of year estimates will be published in September’s Citrus Fruits

Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season,

including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for

recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.6 percent. However, if you

exclude the seven freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 3.3 percent. This means that chances are

two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by

more than 3.6 percent or 3.3 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.3 percent or 5.8 percent, excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

255,000 tons (241,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons. The March 1

forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above

8 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecast this year is likely

to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 16 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops,

Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing

Vegetables (202) 720-3250

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288

Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans &

Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270

Steve Gunn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

Tobacco (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables,

Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2001 17 NASS, USDA

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 10, 2001.

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