Cr Pr 2-2 (1-03)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released January 10, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down 1 Percent from December

The U.S. all orange January forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.2 million tons, down 1 percent from the

previous forecast and 10 percent below last season’s final utilization. Florida’s all orange forecast remains

unchanged at 197 million boxes (8.87 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous season. Abundant

rainfall occurred across the State with some areas receiving excessive amounts. Colder temperatures were

more prevalent than normal. The early and midseason varieties forecast remains unchanged at 113 million

boxes (5.09 million tons) but 12 percent below last season. Fruit continued to grow in size. However,

droppage is at the second highest level in the current 10-year series. Row count surveys indicate over

52 percent of fruit harvested, the highest rate of the previous ten seasons. Florida’s Valencia forecast is

unchanged at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons) but is 18 percent below last season. Fruit size continues

to increase at an above average rate. Droppage continues at above average levels.

The all orange forecast for California, at 61.0 million boxes (2.29 million tons), is 3 percent less than the

October 1 forecast but 9 percent higher than last season. Recent rains slowed harvesting of California Navel

oranges but enhanced fruit size. Overall fruit quality is good. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.68 million

boxes (72,000 tons), is up 6 percent from the October 1 forecast but 3 percent less than last season’s final

utilization. Harvest is underway and fruit quality and size are reported as excellent. Arizona’s all orange

utilization is forecast at 450,000 boxes (17,000 tons), unchanged from the October 1 forecast but 13 percent

lower than the previous season. If realized, it will be the sixth consecutive season of declining utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2002-03 season is forecast at 1.57 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is unchanged from last month’s projection. The early and midseason

portion is projected at 1.52 gallons per box and the late season Valencia oranges at 1.67 gallons. These

projections are very similar to last season’s final estimates. All projections of yield assume that the

processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on January 10, 2003.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................ 5

Crop Comments ....................................................................... 14

Crop Summary ......................................................................... 7

Information Contacts ................................................................... 18

Hay Stocks ............................................................................ 6

Papayas ............................................................................... 4

Potatoes .............................................................................. 4

Reliability ............................................................................ 17

Weather Summary ..................................................................... 14

U.S. Weather Maps .................................................................... 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 4 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2001-2003

Seasonal

Group

and

State

Area

Yield Production

Planted Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring 1

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

9.0

6.8

15.8

7.8

19.0

27.0

19.5

7.5

21.5

12.5

87.8

9.0

6.6

15.6

9.0

6.7

15.7

7.8

19.0

26.3

19.0

7.3

21.0

12.0

86.1

9.0

6.5

15.5

270

265

268

270

405

300

315

260

170

170

271

270

265

268

2,790

1,325

4,115

2,214

6,045

7,970

5,940

2,030

3,515

2,070

21,814

2,430

1,776

4,206

2,106

7,695

7,883

5,985

1,898

3,570

2,040

23,294

2,430

1,723

4,153

 1 2002 revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2001 2002

2001 2002 2001 2002

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Nov

Dec

2,710

2,575

2,155

2,075

1,920

1,825

1,495

1,495

4,330

3,225

4,055

3,685

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted January 1, 2003 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 4

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 5

 CA 5

 FL 6

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus 7

 FL

480

35,500

128,000

2,000

165,980

420

19,000

95,300

235

114,955

900

54,500

223,300

2,235

280,935

1,250

18,700

27,300

250

6,300

46,000

7,200

59,750

650

2,200

5,600

8,450

3,600

22,600

26,200

2,100

40

270

34,000

128,000

1,530

163,800

250

22,000

102,000

210

124,460

520

56,000

230,000

1,740

288,260

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

6,000

46,700

5,900

58,760

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

19,000

21,800

2,150

30

200

40,000

113,000

1,500

154,700

250

21,000

84,000

180

105,430

450

61,000

197,000

1,680

260,130

1,400

16,000

24,000

100

5,600

40,000

5,600

51,300

450

2,500

5,100

8,050

2,800

23,000

25,800

2,400

18

1,331

5,760

85

7,194

16

713

4,288

10

5,027

34

2,044

10,048

95

12,221

56

795

1,160

8

211

1,955

288

2,462

24

83

266

373

137

859

996

95

2

10

1,275

5,760

65

7,110

9

825

4,590

9

5,433

19

2,100

10,350

74

12,543

70

803

1,182

5

201

1,985

236

2,427

23

83

314

420

106

722

828

97

1

8

1,500

5,085

64

6,657

9

788

3,780

8

4,585

17

2,288

8,865

72

11,242

63

680

1,020

3

188

1,700

224

2,115

17

94

242

353

106

874

980

108

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early

Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Includes seedy. 5 Includes tangelos and tangors. 6 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst,

and Honey varieties only. 7 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 6 NASS, USDA

Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,

December 1 and May 1, 2000-2002

State

Dec 1 May 1

2000 2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

1,000

250

2,150

1,954

1,770

82

29

450

950

2,857

1,700

1,629

4,500

4,500

5,316

415

145

525

108

3,460

4,446

850

5,392

3,168

3,500

801

66

156

600

2,280

1,300

5,212

3,390

3,700

1,766

2,800

11

518

8,200

3,405

7,104

1,150

280

2,900

1,303

1,144

4,800

1,550

105,582

2,100

223

2,280

1,961

1,990

59

16

510

1,599

2,568

1,600

1,311

4,300

5,600

4,214

1,096

137

355

105

3,450

4,213

1,833

6,989

3,600

4,800

776

50

90

600

2,250

1,215

5,020

3,591

3,300

1,901

2,100

8

448

8,235

4,140

7,477

1,470

288

2,384

1,513

939

4,300

1,506

110,510

1,700

203

3,000

2,235

1,560

61

10

475

1,464

2,972

1,400

1,021

3,900

4,800

4,085

709

140

264

90

2,109

4,759

1,631

6,350

4,019

3,400

881

48

55

620

2,236

785

4,300

1,832

4,500

2,550

2,200

9

400

5,800

3,566

10,803

1,200

281

1,929

1,620

934

3,600

1,250

103,756

100

33

270

180

286

21

4

25

190

265

340

342

700

500

1,439

30

40

61

30

1,000

960

45

799

427

500

112

14

47

75

625

277

1,120

835

450

241

1,200

2

100

1,550

804

1,450

200

70

745

195

276

1,980

151

21,106

650

28

280

232

535

9

5

90

350

444

355

287

1,050

1,040

943

200

25

62

31

811

680

390

1,021

845

1,280

111

9

15

65

600

158

1,050

551

500

183

550

2

110

1,900

809

1,625

210

87

411

170

205

1,350

180

22,494
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,073.0

79,054.0

5,005.0

450.0

3,240.0

1,395.0

9,580.0

60,358.0

41,735.0

2,909.0

15,714.0

1,459.0

785.0

191.0

1,358.0

3.4

219.0

73,758.0

2,585.0

13,962.6

13,719.0

243.6

1,427.9

21.5

1,922.1

302.7

221.0

1,310.8

15.8

87.8

63.0

1,144.2

97.2

44,246.0

15.6

4,135.0

69,313.0

7,490.0

64,497.0

23,135.0

41,362.0

2,098.0

220.0

3,207.0

286.0

7,299.0

352.0

45,817.0

29,651.0

2,703.0

13,463.0

1,275.0

704.0

175.0

1,296.7

3.1

196.0

72,160.0

2,205.0

12,413.3

12,171.0

242.3

1,361.0

1,026.1

430.3

11.6

1,726.9

279.7

209.0

6.2

0.3

29.3

80.2

1,276.5

15.7

86.1

59.9

1,114.8

18.0

83.3

0.4

15.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 8 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

54.9

130.0

14.0

2.34

3.19

1.86

56.8

12.5

6,578

24.4

50.7

9.5

35.3

38.5

29.4

29.3

1,218

17.9

705

2,561

1,461

1,520

37.8

1,133

663

651

1,286

20.2

35.0

2,068

1,414

1,736

1,517

1,200

1,370

45,000

1,990

85

363

268

271

309

374

108

150

268

226,873

9,007,659

104,979

150,962

73,824

77,138

119,132

2,755

210,960

6,985

369,758

3,360

1,616,441

1,142,802

79,450

394,189

1,552,520

6,419.3

12,569

123,450

3,320,490

4,530

297,980

2,729,709

2,497,236

17,145.0

16,496.0

649.0

27,550

35,932

889,632

164

29,974

4,242

2,508

457

8,500

14,400

58,336.6

6,818

463,214

4,206

23,294

18,486

417,228

1,942

12,498

6,100

4,153

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 9 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2001 2002 2003

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,462

2

996

12,221

95

373

56

9,629.1

82.5

28,000.0

6,552.5

134.0

55,000.0

2,441.4

1,005.8

150.0

21.2

830,000

49.5

338,500

161,000

305.0

1,049

2,427

1

828

12,543

97

420

70

8,910.6

89.7

7,269.3

90.0

2,531.7

944.6

155.0

15.2

980,000

18.0

175,700

280,000

275.0

1,356

2,115

980

11,242

108

353

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,052,990

31,992,360

2,025,470

182,110

1,311,200

564,540

3,876,930

24,426,280

16,889,740

1,177,240

6,359,300

590,440

317,680

77,300

549,570

1,380

88,630

29,849,130

1,046,120

5,650,520

5,551,940

98,580

577,860

8,700

777,850

122,500

89,440

530,470

6,390

35,530

25,500

463,050

39,340

17,905,910

6,310

1,673,390

28,050,280

3,031,130

26,101,290

9,362,500

16,738,790

849,040

89,030

1,297,840

115,740

2,953,830

142,450

18,541,680

11,999,460

1,093,880

5,448,340

515,980

284,900

70,820

524,760

1,250

79,320

29,202,430

892,340

5,023,540

4,925,480

98,060

550,780

415,250

174,130

4,690

698,860

113,190

84,580

2,510

130

11,860

32,460

516,590

6,350

34,840

24,240

451,150

7,280

33,710

170

6,270

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 11 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

2.95

8.16

31.42

5.25

7.15

4.18

2.04

0.70

7.37

1.53

3.18

21.40

2.37

2.59

1.98

1.97

1.36

1.12

0.79

2.87

1.64

1.70

2.54

1.27

0.74

0.73

1.44

45.38

78.50

2.32

1.58

1.95

1.70

1.35

1.54

50.44

2.23

0.10

40.67

30.03

30.32

34.59

41.95

0.12

16.82

30.03

4,939,580

228,805,080

95,235,350

136,950,420

66,972,010

69,978,420

1,729,200

62,480

9,568,990

177,430

9,392,290

3,048,140

43,992,310

31,101,970

2,162,270

10,728,070

704,210

5,823,490

319,270

56,000

1,506,150

2,050

135,160

74,290,500

1,132,730

3,732,880

3,591,580

141,300

24,992,940

32,596,960

403,530

7,440

1,359,600

192,410

113,760

20,730

3,860

6,530

26,460

3,090

21,011,030

190,780

1,056,600

838,510

18,925,140

880

566,900

2,770

188,380

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 12 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2001 2002 2003

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,233,490

1,810

903,560

11,086,700

86,180

338,380

50,800

4,367,690

74,810

12,700

5,944,350

121,560

24,950

1,107,400

912,460

136,080

19,230

376,480

44,910

153,540

73,030

276,690

5,240

2,201,740

910

751,150

11,378,820

88,000

381,020

63,500

4,041,780

81,370

6,594,600

81,650

1,148,360

856,880

140,610

13,790

444,520

16,330

79,700

127,010

249,480

6,780

1,918,700

889,040

10,198,570

97,980

320,240

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 13 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 14 NASS, USDA

December Weather Summary

An El Niño-driven weather pattern featured heavy precipitation in the West Coast States and across the South,

but mild, mostly dry weather from the northern half of the Plains to the upper Great Lakes region. Although

precipitation aided winter grains and boosted high-elevation snow packs across northern California and the

Northwest, mostly dry weather persisted in drought-affected areas from the Southwest to the central Rockies. 

Meanwhile, mild weather on the Plains benefited the dormant winter wheat crop. Rain and snow boosted soil

moisture reserves on the southern Plains, but dry weather depleted soil moisture and left wheat exposed to

potential weather extremes on the northern and central High Plains. In the Corn Belt, mild, dry weather

favored off-season fieldwork across the upper Midwest, while rain and snow replenished soil moisture from

the Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes region. Persistent rains across the South caused fieldwork delays,

triggered lowland flooding, and left some winter grains in standing water. Meanwhile, rain and snow

eradicated lingering long-term drought in the Atlantic Coast States.

Below-normal temperatures were confined to the South and East, where readings averaged as much as 5

degrees F below normal. In contrast, warmer-than-normal weather prevailed from the Northwest to the upper

Midwest, boosting temperatures as much as 10 degrees F above normal. Little or no moisture accompanied

the mild weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, but at least 8 to 12 inches of precipitation

soaked many locations in northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the central part of Florida’s peninsula,

and areas from eastern Texas to the southern Appalachians.

December Crop Summary

A stormy weather pattern developed in the Pacific Northwest, delivering frequent rain to low-lying coastal

areas and significant snowfall to coastal mountain ranges. Precipitation was much lighter in the mountains

and valleys of the interior Pacific Northwest, but precipitation was above-normal in many areas and well

above-normal in some areas. The wet weather pattern eliminated drought conditions along the coast and

significantly reduced moisture shortages along the foothills of the coastal ranges. In the interior valleys,

topsoil and subsoil moisture supplies improved, but long-term moisture deficits remained moderate to severe. 

The storms bypassed the northern and central Great Plains, leaving little moisture for parched soils and

virtually no snow to protect winter wheat fields from potentially damaging cold temperatures. However,

strong root development and abnormally warm weather reduced the threat of heaving and winter kill, despite

the lack of a protective layer of snow. 

Storms repeatedly redeveloped over the southern Great Plains and spread a variety of severe weather north

and eastward across the Mississippi Delta, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Atlantic Coast States. One

early-month storm produced a mixture of wintery precipitation that limited fieldwork and delayed cotton

harvest in the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Above-normal temperatures and

precipitation produced vigorous winter wheat growth and supplied adequate forage for livestock in Texas. 

The Southeast received frequent, widespread precipitation, but heavy rainfall was scattered and harvest and

fieldwork delays were usually brief. In Florida, rain interrupted vegetable planting and picking and reduced

the quality of some crops. Heavy rain also saturated citrus groves, forcing producers with bedded trees to

pump excessive water from their groves. 

Wet weather also frequently interrupted field and orchard work in California’s central and northern valleys,

but the moisture, combined with above-normal temperatures, contributed to vigorous crop growth. In

addition, heavy snow boosted irrigation reserves in the Sierra Mountains. 

Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation prevailed in the Corn Belt. Soil moisture

supplies were adequate, however, and afternoon temperatures were warm enough to support vegetative

growth and root development of winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt early in the month. However,

above-ground growth was mostly undetectable.

Winter Potatoes: Production for 2003 is forecast at 4.15 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year ago but

1 percent above 2001. Harvested acreage in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is estimated

at 15,500 acres, down 1 percent from 2002, while the average yield is forecast at 268 cwt per acre, the same
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 15 NASS, USDA

as last year. Harvest is underway in California’s Kern County and will move south as the season progresses. 

In Florida, fall rains slowed some planting but most fields were planted on schedule.

Spring Potatoes: Production for 2002 is revised to 23.3 million cwt, up 7 percent from both the May

forecast and last year. Harvested area totaled 86,100 acres, up 13 percent from last year, while the average

yield of 271 cwt per acre decreased 15 cwt from a year ago. 

Spring potato production in California jumped 27 percent from a year ago to 7.70 million cwt on the strength

of increased acreage and higher average yield. North Carolina’s crop of 3.57 million cwt gained 2 percent

from 2001. Florida and Texas are each down 1 percent and Arizona’s potato production is 5 percent below a

year ago.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.69 million pounds for December, down 9 percent

from last month but 14 percent above last year. Area in crop totaled 2,075 acres, down 4 percent from

November and 19 percent below last December. Harvested area totaled 1,495 acres, unchanged from last

month but 18 percent less than December 2001. December weather conditions were mostly favorable over

major papaya production areas. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.12 million tons, down 1 percent from the

December 1 forecast and 13 percent less than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is

unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons). If realized, Florida’s utilized production will be

14 percent below last season and the smallest since the 35.6 million boxes harvested in the 1989-90 freeze

affected season. The all white grapefruit forecast is 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), 15 percent below last

season. The colored grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), 14 percent less

than the previous season. Compared to the previous 10 season series, this year’s fruit size is exceeded only by

the extremely large sizes in the 1995-96 season. Droppage is slightly less than the 10-year season average.

Grapefruit production in Texas is unchanged from the October 1 forecast of 5.60 million boxes

(224,000 tons) but is down 5 percent from last season’s utilized production. Harvest is underway. Fruit

quality and size are reported as excellent. California’s grapefruit production is forecast at 5.60 million boxes

(188,000 tons), 10 percent lower than the October 1 forecast and down 7 percent from last season. Harvest is

underway and the crop is reported in good condition. The Arizona grapefruit forecast remains at

100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), 37 percent less than last season’s utilization. Harvest is underway with large

fruit sizes and fair quality being reported.

Lemons: The 2002-03 U.S. lemon crop is 980,000 tons, up 18 percent from last season. California

production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (874,000 tons), 21 percent above the 2001-02 season. Harvest is

underway in all areas of the State. Fruit quality is good. The 2002-03 Arizona lemon forecast is 2.80 million

boxes (106,000 tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season. Harvest is just underway. 

Quality is mostly good but some wind-scarring has occurred. Average fruit size is larger than last season.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2002-03 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 2.40 million boxes (108,000 tons). This is

12 percent more than last season’s utilized production. Average fruit size is the second largest of the

10 season series and loss from droppage is expected to be below average, similar to the December 1 forecast. 

If the forecast is realized, it will be the largest crop of the past three seasons.

Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 353,000 tons, up 1 percent from the December 1

forecast but down 16 percent from last season’s utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop forecast,

at 5.10 million boxes (242,000 tons), is down 2 percent from last month and 23 percent lower than last

season’s utilization. Harvest of Fallglo and Sunburst tangerines is almost complete. Harvest of Honey

tangerines has just begun. Fruit size is above the 10-season average but much smaller than the record large

size of last season. The 2002-03 Florida tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey

tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and Dancy varieties as in previous seasons. This program

change was implemented because of the declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by the Florida

Citrus Commission.

California’s tangerine forecast is 2.50 million boxes (94,000 tons), up 9 percent from the October 1 forecast

and 14 percent above last season’s utilization. There are no reports of any major problems. Shape is normal
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 16 NASS, USDA

and fruit quality was reported as very good. Arizona’s tangerine forecast remains unchanged at

450,000 boxes (17,000 tons) but is 27 percent below last season’s utilized production. Harvest is off to a

good start.

Temples: Florida’s Temples are forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season,

unchanged from December but 10 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would equal the freeze

affected 1989-90 crop as the second smallest on record. Average fruit size continues to be the largest in the

10 season series. Fruit per tree is down and droppage is projected to be slightly above average.

K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has

been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have ceased.

Florida Citrus: December was a very wet and cold month in Florida. Rainfall averaged two to four times

the normal rate. Caretakers were busy discing and deep plowing grove middles to help drain excess water

away from tree root systems. Pumps were also utilized to drain ditches and canals away from groves. Low

temperatures were in the mid to upper 30's during early December. During the latter part of the month, low

temperatures were in the 40's. There was no damage to citrus trees or fruit. 

Fresh fruit harvesting crews were very busy on dry days picking citrus for the Christmas markets and for fund

raising projects. Virtually all of the processors were busy trying to process the field run fruit on the same day

delivered. Caretakers were mowing and chopping cover crops for fire prevention. Dead trees continue to be

removed and burned. A few resets were planted in the southern districts. Some spraying was applied to late

season crops.

Texas Citrus: Harvest is underway for most citrus. Frequent rains in the last several months have helped

production but did slow harvest on occasion. Fruit quality and size have been excellent this season.

California Citrus: Picking of navel oranges continued throughout December. Rainfall and cool night

temperatures helped increase fruit size and enhance exterior color and maturity. Pummelo and Oroblanco

grapefruit harvests were active in the desert. Picking of lemons was active in the desert, central valley, and

south coast areas. Harvest of Satsuma, Mineola, and Fairchild tangerines was active during December.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, brush

shredding, cultivating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Some older variety trees

and vines have been removed in preparation for planting replacements. Strong winds and rain during the

middle of December contributed to some fruit and nut tree loss in parts of the State. Late picking of Crimson

and Emperor table grapes neared completion in the southern areas of the State by the middle of December. 

Warm, dry weather allowed a few strawberry growers in Fresno and Tulare counties to continue harvesting

for local roadside stand sales. Olives were harvested for oil production. Blueberry plantings showed vigorous

growth. Fuya and Hachiya persimmons were picked. Walnut orchards were treated for weed control. 

Almond stockpile hulling was completed by month's end.

Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 104 million tons on December 1, 2002,

down 6 percent from the previous year. Disappearance of hay from May 2002 - December 2002 totaled

69.7 million tons, compared to 25.1 million tons for the same period a year ago. Disappearance is up from

last year, due to dry spring and summer conditions limiting pasture and extending the hay feeding period in

the nothern and central Great Plains, Southeast, and Rocky Mountain States.

Thirty-three of the 48 reporting States had lower hay stocks than last year. Most of the States reporting a

decrease in stocks compared to last year were located in the western Corn Belt, central Rocky Mountains,

northern and central Great Plains, and the Southeast. Stocks were significantly higher in Oklahoma and

Texas, mainly due to a sharp increase in production during 2002.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 17 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and

the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit

droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas

conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September’s Citrus

Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season,

including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for

recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 6.0 percent. However, if you

exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.3 percent. This means that chances are

two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by

more than 6.0 percent, or 4.3 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.4 percent, or 7.5 percent excluding freeze seasons.

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

419,000 tons (371,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 16,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (16,000 tons

to 739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate

6 times and above 14 times (below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference

does not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2003 18 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234

Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum,

 Sugar Crops (202) 720-8140

Mark E. Miller - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 11, 2003.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of

race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or

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To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten

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Competing in the 21st Century

 February 20-21, 2003

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