Cr Pr 2-2 (1-10)a

Crop Production

Washington, D.C.

Released January 12, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of 

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Up Slightly from December

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2009-10 season is 8.21 million tons, up slightly from the December 1 

forecast but down 11 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 

135 million boxes (6.08 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 17 percent from 

last season’s final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 69.0 million 

boxes (3.11 million tons), unchanged from December but 18 percent lower than last season. The Florida 

Valencia orange forecast, at 66.0 million boxes (2.97 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast 

but down 15 percent from the 2008-09 crop. Fruit size is slightly above average for the early, midseason, 

and navel varieties, while fruit drop is slightly below average. Fruit size remains below average for the 

Valencia crop. The drop rate for Valencia’s is slightly above average. This report reflects conditions as of 

January 1 and is based on data collected in December 2009. It does not include any effects of the cold 

weather in Florida during January.

The all orange forecast in California, at 55.0 million boxes (2.06 million tons), is unchanged from October’s 

forecast but 13 percent above last season. The navel forecast is 40.0 million boxes (1.50 million tons), 

unchanged from the October 1 forecast but up 16 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. California’s 

Valencia orange forecast is 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 

7 percent above last season. Navel harvest progressed with good fruit size and quality reported.

The Texas all orange forecast is 1.59 million boxes (68,000 tons), up 9 percent from both October and last 

season. The early and midseason forecast is 1.31 million boxes (56,000 tons), up 5 percent from October 

and 1 percent more than the 2008-09 season. Texas Valencia oranges are forecast at 277,000 boxes 

(12,000 tons), up 39 percent from October and 74 percent above last season.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2009-10 season is 1.60 gallons per 

box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 2 percent from the December 1 forecast and down 4 percent from last 

season’s final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.53 gallons per 

box, down 4 percent from last season’s record yield of 1.60 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is 

expected to total 1.70 gallons per box, 3 percent lower than last year’s final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. 

All projections of yield assume the processing relationship this season will be similar to those of the past 

several seasons.

Update Alert

West Virginia hay stocks for Dec 1, 2008 on page 6 were corrected.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on January 12, 2010.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Kathleen A. Merrigan

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Carol C. House
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Grains & Hay

Hay Stocks.....................................................................................................................................................6

Non-citrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas..........................................................................................................................................................4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit ......................................................................................................................................................5

Lemons..........................................................................................................................................................5

Oranges..........................................................................................................................................................5

Tangelos........................................................................................................................................................5

Tangerines and Mandarins............................................................................................................................5

Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops

Potatoes.........................................................................................................................................................4

Crop Comments.........................................................................................................................................15

Crop Summary ............................................................................................................................................7

Information Contacts................................................................................................................................18

Reliability of Production Data in this Report.........................................................................................17

Weather Maps ...........................................................................................................................................13

Weather Summary ....................................................................................................................................14
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 4 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2008-2009 1

Seasonal

Group

and

State

Area

Yield Production

Planted Harvested

2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Spring

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

3.5

15.4

28.5

17.4

11.1

14.5

8.4

70.3

4.0

17.8

32.6

20.0

12.6

16.0

8.8

79.2

3.5

15.4

27.9

17.0

10.9

14.0

8.0

68.8

4.0

17.5

28.9

16.5

12.4

15.0

8.3

73.7

300

450

285

285

285

180

210

293

280

410

266

260

275

225

235

289

1,050

6,930

7,952

4,845

3,107

2,520

1,680

20,132

1,120

7,175

7,700

4,290

3,410

3,375

1,951

21,321

1

2009 revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2008-2009

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2008 2009

2008 2009 2008 2009

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oct

Nov

2,315

2,420

1,970

1,975

1,405

1,450

1,310

1,320

3,075

2,745

2,585

2,500

1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2007-08, 2008-09 and Forecasted January 1, 2010 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

1,000 Boxes 21,000 Boxes 21,000 Boxes 21,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Grapefruit

 White

 FL

 Colored

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines and Mandarins

 AZ 5

 CA 5

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

230

45,000

83,500

1,600

130,330

150

17,000

86,700

196

104,046

380

62,000

170,200

1,796

234,376

9,000

17,600

100

5,200

26,600

6,000

37,900

400

6,700

5,500

12,600

1,500

14,800

16,300

1,500

150

34,500

84,600

1,300

120,550

100

14,000

77,800

159

92,059

250

48,500

162,400

1,459

212,609

6,600

15,100

25

5,600

21,700

5,500

32,825

250

6,700

3,850

10,800

3,000

22,000

25,000

1,150

40,000

69,000

1,310

110,310

15,000

66,000

277

81,277

55,000

135,000

1,587

191,587

5,500

14,000

4,200

19,500

5,490

29,190

350

8,200

4,700

13,250

2,500

20,000

22,500

900

9

1,688

3,758

68

5,523

6

637

3,901

9

4,553

15

2,325

7,659

77

10,076

383

748

3

174

1,131

240

1,548

15

251

261

527

57

562

619

68

5

1,294

3,807

55

5,161

4

525

3,501

7

4,037

9

1,819

7,308

62

9,198

280

642

1

188

922

220

1,331

9

251

183

443

114

836

950

52

1,500

3,105

56

4,661

563

2,970

12

3,545

2,063

6,075

68

8,206

234

595

141

829

220

1,190

13

308

223

544

95

760

855

41

1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year.

2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; 

tangerines and mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.

3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small 

quantities of tangerines in TX and Temples in FL.

4 Estimates discontinued beginning with the 2009-10 crop year.

5

Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 6 NASS, USDA

Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,

December 1 and May 1, 2007-2009

State

Dec 1 May 1

2007 2008 2009 2008 2009

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

1,318

260

2,700

1,890

2,400

69

8

492

1,013

2,400

1,100

973

3,500

5,465

3,312

820

160

240

74

1,700

3,140

1,459

6,662

4,530

4,205

767

57

68

580

1,674

682

4,990

1,653

6,100

1,700

1,750

6

350

7,816

2,121

13,400

1,130

228

1,705

1,335

720

3,467

1,900

104,089

1,540

475

3,020

2,380

1,975

65

20

587

1,319

2,012

1,386

1,191

3,918

5,700

4,169

921

145

431

77

1,998

3,891

1,365

7,744

3,831

4,115

1,000

70

94

600

1,453

962

4,032

1,992

4,595

1,561

2,500

10

451

7,660

3,038

8,483

1,300

175

2,174

1,182

916

3,603

1,532

103,658

1,700

500

2,900

2,400

2,500

71

29

535

1,374

2,750

1,400

1,360

3,100

5,400

4,905

710

134

350

75

1,451

3,570

1,058

8,280

4,100

4,490

1,012

45

102

570

1,582

1,523

5,500

2,013

4,435

2,200

2,400

8

590

8,290

3,219

7,700

1,330

204

1,940

1,418

938

3,021

2,040

107,222

150

36

530

250

520

8

1

66

145

300

210

93

640

1,100

186

100

27

52

12

320

535

196

900

1,025

990

90

6

5

125

283

79

1,260

165

1,600

150

500

1

55

1,930

215

4,906

215

60

226

200

92

790

240

21,585

375

50

570

470

400

9

4

58

238

450

300

185

750

1,350

465

60

18

111

12

450

790

214

2,050

590

935

170

8

26

105

420

311

700

325

1,000

270

700

1

115

1,900

552

2,100

285

37

450

350

156

950

230

22,065
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2009 2010 2009 2010

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

3,567.0

86,482.0

3,404.0

350.0

3,135.0

1,241.0

6,633.0

59,133.0

43,311.0

2,554.0

13,268.0

827.0

317.0

51.5

1,116.0

1.0

175.0

77,451.0

2,030.0

9,149.2

9,007.5

141.7

1,183.2

20.5

1,537.5

863.3

415.0

1,069.8

9.0

79.2

44.5

937.1

106.7

37,097.0

3,113.0

79,630.0

5,605.0

59,755.0

21,227.0

38,528.0

1,379.0

293.0

3,103.0

252.0

5,520.0

254.0

49,868.0

34,485.0

2,428.0

12,955.0

814.0

314.0

49.8

1,081.0

0.9

165.5

76,407.0

1,953.5

7,690.5

7,552.0

138.5

1,145.3

877.7

354.1

13.7

1,463.0

837.9

407.0

6.3

39.7

69.8

1,045.0

8.7

73.7

43.0

919.6

20.5

103.3

0.4

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 

crop year.

2 Area planted for all purposes.

3 Acreage is not estimated.

4 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 8 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Yield Production

2009 2010 2009 2010

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Tons

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Tons

Bu

"

"

"

Lbs

Tons

Bu

Lbs

"

"

"

Bu

Lbs

Bales

"

"

Tons

"

Lbs

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lbs

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lbs

Cwt

Lbs

73.0

165.2

19.3

2.47

3.35

1.98

67.5

33.7

7,085

27.8

69.4

14.5

44.4

44.2

44.9

45.1

1,811

23.6

991

3,412

1,700

1,462

44.0

1,554

774

763

1,353

25.8

34.5

2,325

1,328

1,733

2,045

1,440

1,270

2,383

91

413

245

289

336

428

132

201

227,323

13,151,062

108,209

147,442

71,030

76,412

93,081

9,865

219,850

6,993

382,983

3,680

2,216,171

1,522,718

109,042

584,411

1,474,130

4,178.0

7,423

49,364

3,688,350

1,530

241,970

3,361,028

3,036,460

12,401.3

12,011.0

390.3

29,519

30,265

823,290

182

25,360

17,137

5,859

874

8,000

94,677.9

6,379

431,425

2,132

21,321

14,469

393,503

2,698

19,647

4,000

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 

crop year.

2 Yield in pounds.

3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2009 2010 2009 2010

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 5

1,443,530

34,998,400

1,377,560

141,640

1,268,700

502,220

2,684,310

23,930,530

17,527,530

1,033,580

5,369,430

334,680

128,290

20,840

451,630

400

70,820

31,343,650

821,520

3,702,590

3,645,250

57,340

478,830

8,300

622,210

349,370

167,950

432,940

3,640

32,050

18,010

379,230

43,180

15,012,780

1,259,800

32,225,460

2,268,290

24,182,250

8,590,350

15,591,900

558,070

118,570

1,255,750

101,980

2,233,890

102,790

20,181,080

13,955,730

982,590

5,242,760

329,420

127,070

20,150

437,470

360

66,980

30,921,150

790,560

3,112,270

3,056,220

56,050

463,490

355,200

143,320

5,540

592,060

339,090

164,710

2,550

16,080

28,250

422,900

3,520

29,830

17,400

372,150

8,300

41,800

180

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 

crop year.

2 Area planted for all purposes.

3

Total may not add due to rounding.

4 Acreage is not estimated.

5 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2009 2010 2009 2010

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.93

10.37

43.28

5.53

7.50

4.45

2.42

1.89

7.94

1.74

4.35

32.48

2.99

2.97

3.02

3.03

2.03

1.48

1.11

3.82

1.91

1.64

2.96

1.74

0.87

0.86

1.52

57.78

77.30

2.61

1.49

1.94

2.29

1.61

1.42

2.67

0.10

46.27

27.47

32.43

37.71

47.96

0.15

21.32

4,949,370

334,052,360

98,165,550

133,757,130

64,437,330

69,319,800

1,351,070

223,730

9,972,230

177,630

9,728,220

3,338,440

60,314,290

41,441,590

2,967,640

15,905,060

668,650

3,790,220

188,550

22,390

1,673,010

690

109,760

91,472,190

1,377,320

2,700,070

2,615,090

84,980

26,779,190

27,455,950

373,440

8,260

1,150,310

777,320

265,760

39,640

3,630

42,950

2,890

19,569,110

96,710

967,100

656,300

17,849,000

1,220

891,170

1,810

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 

crop year.

2

Production may not add due to rounding.

3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2008-2010

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Production

2008 2009 2010

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell)

 Pecans (in-shell)

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)

 Maple Syrup

Tons

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

"

Lbs

Tons

"

"

"

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

Gals

1,548

619

10,076

68

527

9,769.3

81.6

17,400.0

7,303.3

66.8

33,500.0

1,133.3

870.9

129.0

15.5

1,630,000

32.0

193,890

436.0

1,912

1,331

950

9,198

52

443

10,016.0

75.3

7,021.0

50.0

1,078.3

935.3

170.0

18.3

1,350,000

38.0

301,200

415.0

2,327

1,190

855

8,206

41

544

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 

full 2010 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season.

2

Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 12 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2008-2010

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2008 2009 2010

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell)

 Pecans (in-shell)

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)

 Maple Syrup

1,404,320

561,550

9,140,790

61,690

478,090

4,431,280

74,040

7,890

6,625,410

60,600

15,200

1,028,120

790,020

117,030

14,060

739,360

29,030

87,950

395,530

9,560

1,207,460

861,830

8,344,290

47,170

401,880

4,543,180

68,270

6,369,340

45,360

978,250

848,490

154,220

16,600

612,350

34,470

136,620

376,480

11,630

1,079,550

775,640

7,444,360

37,190

493,510

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 

full 2010 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season.

2

Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 13 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 14 NASS, USDA

December Weather Summary

In the wake of a mild November, cold, stormy December weather stressed livestock but buried winter grains 

beneath a protective blanket of snow. Monthly temperatures generally averaged 4 to 12 degrees Fahrenheit below 

normal across the Plains, with early- to mid month readings falling to -40 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of Montana 

and below 0 degrees Fahrenheit in eastern Colorado and much of Kansas.

Major storms struck the Nation’s mid-section on December 7-9 and 23-26, leaving late-month snow depths of 1 to 

2 feet across the north-central U.S. The snow hampered rural travel across the Plains and Midwest, and 

necessitated supplemental feeding for livestock. By December 20, the corn harvest was 95 percent complete, 

although nearly one in three fields (32 percent) remained unharvested in North Dakota.

Farther south and east, seemingly incessant rains soaked areas from southern Texas into the southern and middle 

Atlantic States. Monthly rainfall topped 20 inches in parts of the central Gulf Coast region, slowing late-season 

sugarcane harvesting. In addition, the Nation’s cotton harvest was just 94 percent complete by December 20, 

with Georgia and Alabama reporting 82 and 84 percent harvested, respectively. From December 18-20, major 

snow accumulations (1 to 2 feet) were reported from the southern Appalachians into southern New England.

Elsewhere, beneficial precipitation fell during December from central and southern California into the 

Intermountain West, while drier-than-normal conditions prevailed in the Northwest. Despite California’s 

precipitation, the end-of-month water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack stood at just 9 inches, 86 percent of 

normal for the date.

December Agricultural Summary

Temperatures during the month of December were well below average throughout much of the Great Basin, 

Rocky Mountains, Great Plains, and into southern Texas, with several areas in the Rocky Mountains dipping to 

10 degrees or more below normal. Elsewhere, temperatures were near normal. Strong winter storm systems 

delivered above average precipitation to the Great Basin, the northern and central Great Plains, Corn Belt, and the 

Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, with numerous locations receiving total accumulations greater than 200 percent of 

normal. Elsewhere, the Pacific Northwest and southern Great Plains were abnormally dry.

As December began and when weather conditions were conducive, producers in most of the 18 major 

corn-producing States were busy harvesting their remaining 2009 crop. Mostly dry weather in the Dakotas at the 

start of the month promoted a rapid harvest pace with 13 percent or more of the crop combined from 

November 29 to December 6. Harvest continued throughout much of December in all estimating States except 

North Carolina and Texas where harvest was complete by December 6. Nationally, harvest had advanced to 

95 percent complete by December 20, over 3 weeks behind normal.

By December 6, sorghum harvest was complete on 94 percent of the Nation’s acreage, with progress in Kansas, 

the largest sorghum-producing State, over 2 weeks behind normal. With the exception of Arkansas, Louisiana, 

and New Mexico, where harvest was complete, progress remained active in all estimating .

Emergence of the 2010 winter wheat crop reached 93 percent complete by December 6 and was complete or 

nearly complete in most estimating States. In California, emergence was evident on 78 percent of the acreage, 

well ahead of the 5-year average. Delays of 1 week or more existed in Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina. 

Overall, 63 percent of the winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition on December 6.

As the calendar rolled to December, sunflower harvest was most active in Kansas where dry weather provided 

ample time for fieldwork. By December 6, producers Nationwide had harvested 94 percent of the 2009 crop, 

12 days behind normal.

As the month began, peanut harvest remained slow in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Oklahoma as producers 

continued to battle abnormally wet fields that had plagued them throughout much of the season. Nationally, 

94 percent of the crop was dug and combined by December 6.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 15 NASS, USDA

As of December 6, cotton producers had harvested 88 percent of their crop. During the next 7 days, just 3 percent 

of the crop was harvested. While producers in Kansas made excellent progress, harvesting 16 percent of their 

acreage from December 7 to December 13, rainfall hampered fieldwork in Alabama, where progress remained 

well behind normal. By December 20, harvest was complete or nearly complete in all estimating States except 

Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Nationally, 94 percent of the crop was harvested.

Crop Comments

Spring Potatoes: Production for 2009 is estimated at 21.3 million cwt, unchanged from the May 1 forecast but 

6 percent higher than 2008. Area harvested totaled at 73,700 acres, up slightly from the previous forecast and 

7 percent above 2008. The average yield of 289 cwt per acre is down 2 cwt from the May 1 forecast and 4 cwt 

lower than 2008.

Florida’s production is estimated at 7.70 million cwt, down 2 percent from the May 1 forecast and 3 percent 

below the 2008 production. Heavy rains interrupted harvest, which resulted in lower than normal yields. In 

California, production increased 4 percent from last year. Growers in North Carolina produced 34 percent more 

spring potatoes than in the previous year due to a yield increase of 45 cwt per acre. Most growers reported

excellent growing conditions with better than average yields. Production in Texas increased 16 percent from 

2008 and Arizona production increased 7 percent from last year.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.50 million pounds for November 2009, down 

3 percent from October and 9 percent lower than a year ago. Total crop area for November is estimated at 

1,975 acres, up slightly from October but 18 percent below November 2008. Harvested area totaled 1,320 acres, 

up 1 percent from the previous month but 9 percent lower than last year. Cooler temperatures in November 

slowed fruit development.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2009-10 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.19 million tons, down 2 percent from the 

December 1 forecast and down 11 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. Florida’s grapefruit production is 

forecast at 19.5 million boxes (829,000 tons), down 2 percent from the December 1 forecast and 10 percent below 

last season.

The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.50 million boxes (234,000 tons), down 5 percent from December and 

down 17 percent from the previous year. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 14.0 million boxes (595,000 tons), is 

unchanged from the December 1 forecast but 7 percent lower than last season. White grapefruit size is measuring 

below average.

The Texas grapefruit production forecast is 5.49 million boxes (220,000 tons), up 4 percent from the October 1 

forecast but slightly lower than last season. Grapefruit production in California is forecast at 4.20 million boxes 

(141,000 tons), down 11 percent from October and 25 percent below last season. Rio Red harvest began in the 

Desert Region of California in early November.

Lemons: The forecast for the 2009-10 U.S. lemon crop is 855,000 tons, unchanged from the October 1 forecast 

but down 10 percent from 2008-09. California production is forecast at 20.0 million boxes (760,000 tons), 

unchanged from October but down 9 percent from last season. The California lemon harvest continued in the 

Desert Region and began in the Central Valley. Lemon production in Arizona is forecast at 2.50 million boxes 

(95,000 tons), unchanged from the October 1 forecast but down 17 percent from last season.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 900,000 boxes (41,000 tons), down 10 percent from the December 1 

forecast and down 22 percent from last season’s final production. If realized, this will be the smallest tangelo 

crop since 1962, when Florida had a damaging December freeze.

Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 544,000 tons, up 8 percent 

from the December 1 forecast and 23 percent above the 2008-09 crop. California’s tangerine and mandarin 

forecast is 8.20 million boxes (308,000 tons), up 17 percent from the October 1 forecast and 22 percent higher 

than last season. If realized, this will be a record high production in California. Harvesting of Clementine, 

Satsuma, and Fairchild varieties was underway. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.70 million boxes 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 16 NASS, USDA

(223,000 tons), down 2 percent from the December 1 forecast but up 22 percent from the previous season. 

Harvest of early tangerine varieties was nearly complete while late variety harvest had just begun. Arizona’s 

tangerine forecast, at 350,000 boxes (13,000 tons), is unchanged from October but 40 percent higher than last 

season.

Florida Citrus: Temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s and lows in the 30’s and 40’s were reported during the month 

of December. Increased rainfall helped relieve drought conditions. Overall, the weather was beneficial to citrus 

progress. Harvesting of Murcott tangerines has begun. Weekly navel orange harvesting picked up in early 

December but dropped off at the end of the month.

Most of the processing plants have opened and are mainly receiving early and midseason oranges and grapefruit. 

Grove activity included limited herbicide applications and mowing. Grove caretakers continued to survey groves 

for greening, removed affected trees, and sprayed trees for citrus psyllid control.

Arizona Citrus: Lemon harvest began in early September. Harvested fruit was reported to be larger than 

average. Tangerine harvest started in November with good quality being reported.

California Citrus: Harvest of navel oranges, Satsuma and Clementine mandarins, grapefruit, and lemons 

continued. In citrus orchards along the coast and in the Central Valley, helicopters and wind machines were 

deployed to increase air circulation to combat freezing temperatures in mid-December. Growers also used 

orchard heaters and ran irrigation water to limit the drop in temperature. The extent of damage was still being 

assessed. Normal spraying and maintenance continued in citrus orchards.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape and pomegranate harvests were complete. Grape growers were 

pruning, irrigating, cultivating, and removing old vines. The extent of frost damage due to cold mid-December 

temperatures was still being determined but damage appeared to be localized to small areas. Almond hulling and 

stockpiling was completed in early-December. Nut trees began entering dormancy by the end of the month.

Hay Stocks on Farms: All hay stored on farms December 1, 2009 totaled 107 million tons, up 3 percent from a 

year ago. Disappearance from May-December 2009 totaled 62.3 million tons, compared with 64.2 million tons 

for the same period a year ago.

Compared with December 1, 2008, hay stocks increased in the Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, northern 

Great Plains, and the Southeast with the exception of Florida. Higher hay production and lower cattle inventories 

contributed to the higher hay stocks on December 1. Stocks in North Carolina and Delaware showed the largest 

increases with 58 and 45 percent, respectively. The southern Great Plains and Great Lake States showed 

decreases in stocks for 2009.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 17 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, 

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of 

the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on 

administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is 

determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are 

conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of 

production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, 

January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel 

oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California 

and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current 

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to 

prepare the published January 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each 

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits 

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the 

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root 

Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between 

the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. 

The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of 

the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made 

concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming 

that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 4.8 percent. However, if you 

exclude the 5 abnormal production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square 

Error" is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will 

not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.8 percent, or 3.5 percent excluding abnormal 

seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 

8.2 percent, or 6.1 percent excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have 

averaged 373,000 tons (339,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 64,000 tons to 

1.13 million tons (64,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The January 1 forecast for 

oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, 

excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to 

understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2010 18 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics 

Service to contact for additional information.

Lance Honig, Chief ...................................................................................................(202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Jacqueline Moore, Head.........................................................................(202) 720-2127

Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice ..............................................................(202) 720-7688

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings...............................................(202) 720-5944

Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats, Sorghum....................................................(202) 690-3234

Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed................................(202) 720-9526

Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye....................................................................(202) 720-8068

Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops .............................(202) 720-7621

Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds........................(202) 720-7369

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head ......................................................................(202) 720-2127

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits................(202) 720-2127

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, 

 Onions, Strawberries ..............................................(202) 720-2157

Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums,

Prunes, Tobacco........................................................(202) 720-4288

Michael Jacobsen - Berries, Cranberries................................................(202) 720-9085

Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, 

Tree Nuts..................................................................(202) 720-4215

Tierra Mobley - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes.............................................(202) 720-4285

Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans....................................(202) 720-3250

Kim Ritchie - Hops................................................................................(360) 902-1940
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