Updated: 8/01/2011

Prelim. Proj.

Year: (production/marketing) 1/ 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. High

 Yield (bu. per acre) 42.7 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5 39.0 41.5 43.4 41.0 43.9 45.5

 Long-term historical yield probability 18% 65% 17% 18% 65% 17%

Soybean Supplies: 

 Planted acres (million) 64.7 75.5 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.2 75.2 75.2 77.5 77.5 77.5 

 Harvested acres (million) 64.1 74.6 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.7 73.9 74.0 76.2 76.5 76.5 

 Production (mil. bu.) 2,676 3,188 2,967 3,359 3,329 2,874 3,067 3,212 3,124 3,358 3,481 

 Beginning carryover (mil. bu.) 449 574 205 138 151 190 190 190 120 120 120 

 Total Supply 3,647 3,261 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,081 3,270 3,413 3,258 3,486 3,611

Total Soybean Usage: 

 Crush (mil. bu.) 1,803 1,808 1,662 1,752 1,645 1,460 1,550 1,650 1,575 1,645 1,660 

 Seed & residual (mil. bu.) 93 149 106 108 125 131 120 115 128 116 116 

 Exports (mil. bu.) 1,116 1,159 1,279 1,501 1,535 1,370 1,480 1,510 1,590 1,430 1,630

 Total Usage 3,073 3,056 3,047 3,361 3,305 2,961 3,150 3,275 3,133 3,351 3,406

 Oil Yield, lbs./ bu. of soybeans 2/ 11.3 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.5 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.2 11.4 11.5

Biodiesel Usage: 

Soybean oil use for biodiesel, mil. lbs 2,981 2,762 2,021 1,681 2,400 3,450 3,500 3,550 3,650 3,800 3,850

Use for biodiesel, bushel equivalent 258 244 179 150 210 308 307 309 326 333 335

Soybean oil for biodiesel, % of oil from crop 7.7% 9.7% 6.0% 4.5% 6.3% 10.7% 10.0% 9.6% 10.4% 9.9% 9.6%

Soybean oil for biodiesel, % of oil from crush 13.5% 14.3% 10.8% 8.6% 12.7% 21.1% 19.8% 18.7% 20.7% 20.3% 20.2%

Ending Soybean Carryover: (mil. bu.) 574 205 138 151 190 120 120 138 125 135 205

 Carryover as percent of supply 15.7% 6.3% 4.3% 4.3% 5.4% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.9% 5.7%

 Carryover, weeks of total use 9.7 3.5 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 3.1

Prices:

 U.S. weighted avg. farm price $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.40 $16.00 $13.50 $12.50 $15.25 $13.75 $11.50

 Iowa weighted avg. farm price $6.38 $10.05 $9.92 $9.49 $11.35 $15.90 $13.40 $12.40 $15.15 $13.65 $11.40

 Counter-Cyclical Pmt. $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

 Harvest price (central Iowa) $5.45 $8.45 $8.50 $9.50 $10.50 $15.70 $13.00 $11.90 $14.60 $13.25 $10.90

 Nov. futures price (harvest avg.) $6.05 $9.45 $9.10 $9.95 $11.30 $16.50 $13.70 $12.65 $15.40 $13.95 $11.65

Soy meal, Decatur, $/T 48% protein $205 $336 $331 $311 $345 $440 $365 $345 $420 $380 $310

Soy oil, $ per cwt., marketing year avg. $31.00 $52.03 $32.16 $35.95 $53.50 $66.00 $59.00 $56.00 $64.00 $58.00 $55.00

Year-to-Year Change in Mil. Bu. soybean use:

Crush 70 -5 -141 90 -107 -185 -95 5 25 95 110

Seed & residual -39 -56 13 2 17 6 -5 -10 8 -4 -4

Exports 169 43 120 222 34 -165 -55 -25 -50 110 150

 Total Usage 200 -17 -8 314 -56 -344 -155 -30 -17 201 256

Notes:

2/ Long-term probabilities reflect historical changes to final crop estimates.

Key Balance Sheet Assumptions:

1. No changes in Conservation Reserve Program.

2. Crude oil (petroleum) price stays in $90-$100/barrel range for the rest of 2011, then gradually increases in the next two years.

3. U.S. Ethanol & biodiesel mandates, blending credit, and import tariff are unchanged & enforced. Biodiesel blender's credit is continued through 2012. E-15 blend

 approval is continued for 2001 and newer vehicles only.

4. U.S. & World economies accelerate slightly in 2012.

5. U.S. dollar gradually decreases relative to foreign currencies through 2012.

. . . and justice for all

 Biodiesel Usage Projections & Soybean Balance Sheet (mil. bu.) 

Projected 2012-13

1/ Marketing year - starts at Sept. 1 of the production year and ends August 31 of the following year. For example, the 2007 crop is marketed from Sept. 1, 2007 to August 31, 2008.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. 

(Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Many materials can be made available in alternative formats for ADA clients. To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and 

Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call 202-720-5964. 

Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Acts of May 8 and July 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Cathann A. Kress, director, Cooperative Extension Service, Iowa State University of Science 

and Technology, Ames, Iowa. 

Historic

By Dr. Robert Wisner, biofuels economist, 1-515-294-4275, rwwisner@iastate.edu

Projected 2011-12

1
 -

 500

 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Project

2011-1

Bushels (mil.)

Soybean Production, Usage, and Carryove

Production Total Usage Ending Carryover
 -

 500

 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Historic Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-12 Projected 2012-

Bushels (mil.)

Yearly Production and Beginning Carryover 

Soybeans

 Production (mil. bu.) Beginning carryover (mil. bu.)
 -

 500

 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low 

Historic Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-12 Pro

Bushels (mil.)

Usage of Soybean Supply

 Crush (mil. bu.) Seed & residual (mil. bu.) Exports (m
0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.0

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. 

Historic Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-12 Projected 201

Weeks of Use

Ending Soybean Carryover and the 

U.S. Weighted Average Farm Price

Ending Soybean Carryover: (mil. bu.) U.S. weighted avg. farm price
0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.0

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Low Med. High Low Med. 

Historic Prelim. Proj. Projected 2011-12 Projected 201

Weeks of Use

Ending Soybean Carryover, Weighted Average Io

Farm Price, and Iowa Harvest Price

Ending Soybean Carryover: (mil. bu.) Iowa weighted avg. farm price Harvest price (ce