Cr Pr 2-2 (11-02)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released November 12, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Corn Production Up Slightly from October

Soybean Production Up 1 Percent

Cotton Production Down 1 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 9.00 billion bushels, up slightly from last month but down 5 percent from

2001. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 127.6 bushels per acre, up

0.4 bushel from October but down 10.6 bushels from last year. If realized, production would be at the lowest

level since 1995. Yield prospects in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska increased from last month despite heavy

rainfall at the beginning of the month which slowed harvest progress. Ohio producers realized lower than

expected yields from last month as harvest progressed on the late planted, drought stricken crop.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.69 billion bushels, up 1 percent from October but 7 percent below 2001. 

Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 37.5 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from

last month. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1999. Area for harvest is forecast at

71.8 million acres, unchanged from October but 2 percent below last year. As harvest progressed, producers

realized yield increases from last month in the northern Great Plains, Great Lakes, upper Mississippi Valley,

and Tennessee Valley. However, in the Atlantic Coast States, yield prospects decreased from last month.

All cotton production is forecast at 17.8 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from October and down

12 percent from last year’s record high production. Yield is expected to average 665 pounds per harvested

acre, down 9 pounds from last month. Growers in Alabama, Georgia, and the Atlantic Coast States are

continuing to see the results of adverse weather that has affected their season. Harvested area, at 12.9 million

acres, is unchanged from October 1 but 7 percent below 2001.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on November 12, 2002.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Acting Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 3 NASS, USDA

 Contents

Page

Corn for Grain ......................................................................... 4

 Plant Population Per Acre ............................................................. 22

 Number of Ears Per Acre .............................................................. 23

 Percentage Distribution by Plant Population Per Acre ........................................ 24

 Frequency of Farmer Reported Row Width ................................................ 25

 Percentage Distribution by Measured Row Width and Average Row Width ....................... 26

Cotton ............................................................................... 9

 Cumulative Boll Counts ............................................................... 29

Cottonseed ............................................................................ 8

Crop Summary ........................................................................ 16

Crop Comments ....................................................................... 33

Lentils ............................................................................... 10

Information Contacts ................................................................... 41

Papayas ............................................................................. 12

Peanuts ............................................................................... 8

Peas, Austrian Winter ................................................................... 11

Peas, Dry Edible ....................................................................... 11

Potatoes ............................................................................. 12

 Fall Percent of Major Varieties Planted .................................................... 13

Reliability of Production Data in this Report ................................................. 39

Rice, by State .......................................................................... 6

 by Class ............................................................................. 6

Selected Small Grains, Acres, Yield, and Production .......................................... 14

Selected Small Grains, Stocks ............................................................ 15

Sorghum for Grain ...................................................................... 5

Soybeans ............................................................................. 7

 Pods with Bean Per 18 Square Feet ....................................................... 27

 Percentage Distribution by Measured Row Width and Average Row Width ........................ 28

Sugarbeets ........................................................................... 10

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed ............................................................ 10

Weather Maps ........................................................................ 30

Weather Summary ..................................................................... 32

Wheat, Production by Class ............................................................. 15
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 4 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Oct 1 Nov 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

CA

CO

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

150

185

160

1,070

162

220

10,850

5,670

11,400

3,050

1,100

307

410

1,900

6,200

385

2,600

7,750

66

46

540

625

705

3,170

210

990

240

3,400

620

1,420

330

55

2,600

222

68,808

200

315

140

730

171

280

11,300

5,270

11,900

2,600

1,060

480

425

2,090

6,800

525

2,700

7,600

75

38

450

660

1,030

2,890

180

950

290

3,500

620

1,800

350

80

2,800

242

70,541

107.0

145.0

170.0

140.0

146.0

134.0

152.0

156.0

146.0

127.0

142.0

148.0

136.0

105.0

130.0

130.0

133.0

147.0

112.0

180.0

105.0

125.0

115.0

138.0

125.0

98.0

108.0

109.0

132.0

118.0

123.0

190.0

127.0

139.2

138.2

87.0

140.0

175.0

143.0

81.0

125.0

138.0

117.0

159.0

110.0

101.0

130.0

78.0

112.0

152.0

125.0

102.0

120.0

74.0

180.0

95.0

74.0

108.0

104.0

130.0

72.0

35.0

95.0

107.0

110.0

73.0

190.0

130.0

140.0

127.2

89.0

140.0

175.0

146.0

81.0

125.0

138.0

117.0

160.0

110.0

101.0

130.0

76.0

117.0

156.0

127.0

100.0

122.0

68.0

180.0

89.0

74.0

110.0

96.0

140.0

68.0

35.0

95.0

106.0

110.0

68.0

190.0

130.0

139.8

127.6

16,050

26,825

27,200

149,800

23,652

29,480

1,649,200

884,520

1,664,400

387,350

156,200

45,436

55,760

199,500

806,000

50,050

345,800

1,139,250

7,392

8,280

56,700

78,125

81,075

437,460

26,250

97,020

25,920

370,600

81,840

167,560

40,590

10,450

330,200

30,905

9,506,840

17,800

44,100

24,500

106,580

13,851

35,000

1,559,400

616,590

1,904,000

286,000

107,060

62,400

32,300

244,530

1,060,800

66,675

270,000

927,200

5,100

6,840

40,050

48,840

113,300

277,440

25,200

64,600

10,150

332,500

65,720

198,000

23,800

15,200

364,000

33,838

9,003,364

 1 Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop

Production 2002 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 5 NASS, USDA

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Oct 1 Nov 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AR

CO

IL

KS

LA

MO

NE

NM

OK

SD

TX

Oth

 Sts 1

US

170

220

77

3,750

210

220

425

140

420

150

2,600

202

8,584

230

150

78

3,100

195

190

310

75

330

80

2,600

190

7,528

86.0

43.0

105.0

62.0

85.0

94.0

84.0

45.0

36.0

59.0

50.0

76.0

59.9

78.0

30.0

85.0

48.0

78.0

82.0

47.0

30.0

45.0

40.0

50.0

72.2

51.4

80.0

30.0

85.0

46.0

76.0

82.0

49.0

30.0

45.0

37.0

50.0

72.2

50.7

14,620

9,460

8,085

232,500

17,850

20,680

35,700

6,300

15,120

8,850

130,000

15,359

514,524

18,400

4,500

6,630

142,600

14,820

15,580

15,190

2,250

14,850

2,960

130,000

13,719

381,499

 1 Other States include AL, AZ, CA, DE, GA, KY, MD, MS, NC, PA, SC, TN, and VA. Individual State level estimates will be

published in the "Crop Production 2002 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 6 NASS, USDA

Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Oct 1 Nov 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

AR

CA

LA

MS

MO

TX

US

1,621

471

546

253

207

216

3,314

1,506

521

535

243

197

205

3,207

6,250

8,170

5,500

6,500

5,950

6,700

6,429

6,450

8,300

5,500

6,400

6,200

7,000

6,608

6,450

8,300

5,500

6,600

6,000

7,000

6,611

101,312

38,490

30,014

16,445

12,317

14,467

213,045

97,137

43,243

29,425

16,038

11,820

14,350

212,013

Rice: Production by Class, United States,

2000-2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All

1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

2000

2001

2002 1

128,756

165,330

157,508

59,514

46,105

52,589

2,602

1,610

1,916

190,872

213,045

212,013

 1 Indicated November 1, 2002, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 7 NASS, USDA

Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Oct 1 Nov 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL

AR

DE

GA

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

MD

MI

MN

MS

MO

NE

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

135

2,850

201

155

10,620

5,590

10,920

2,730

1,220

610

515

2,130

7,200

1,120

4,900

4,900

101

158

1,350

2,110

4,580

255

395

420

4,470

1,040

225

480

1,570

25

72,975

140

2,900

192

145

10,350

5,680

10,650

2,600

1,210

760

505

1,940

6,900

1,420

4,650

4,700

88

153

1,290

2,400

4,620

280

380

430

4,150

1,120

240

460

1,420

26

71,799

35.0

32.0

39.0

26.0

45.0

49.0

44.0

32.0

40.0

33.0

39.0

30.0

37.0

33.0

38.0

45.5

31.0

33.0

32.0

33.5

41.0

19.0

35.0

21.0

32.0

34.0

26.0

35.5

37.0

37.3

39.6

26.0

35.0

23.0

24.0

41.0

40.0

46.0

24.0

31.0

33.0

21.0

36.0

44.0

34.0

32.0

37.0

25.0

30.0

24.0

33.0

32.0

28.0

27.0

18.0

29.0

31.0

28.0

23.0

39.0

35.3

37.0

26.0

35.0

22.0

23.0

41.0

41.0

46.0

24.0

33.0

33.0

21.0

38.0

45.0

34.0

33.0

38.0

25.0

30.0

22.0

34.0

32.0

28.0

27.0

17.0

30.0

32.0

28.0

21.0

42.0

35.3

37.5

4,725

91,200

7,839

4,030

477,900

273,910

480,480

87,360

48,800

20,130

20,085

63,900

266,400

36,960

186,200

222,950

3,131

5,214

43,200

70,685

187,780

4,845

13,825

8,820

143,040

35,360

5,850

17,040

58,090

933

2,890,682

3,640

101,500

4,224

3,335

424,350

232,880

489,900

62,400

39,930

25,080

10,605

73,720

310,500

48,280

153,450

178,600

2,200

4,590

28,380

81,600

147,840

7,840

10,260

7,310

124,500

35,840

6,720

9,660

59,640

917

2,689,691

 1 Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2002 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 8 NASS, USDA

Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Oct 1 Nov 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

AL

FL

GA

NM

NC

OK

SC

TX

VA

US

199.0

82.0

514.0

22.2

122.5

77.0

10.2

310.0

75.0

1,411.9

199.0

92.0

518.0

23.0

100.0

60.0

10.5

300.0

58.0

1,360.5

2,675

3,050

3,330

3,020

2,910

2,570

3,000

2,890

3,130

3,029

2,500

2,900

2,800

2,800

2,300

2,900

2,200

3,000

2,500

2,757

2,300

2,500

2,600

2,800

2,200

2,800

2,300

2,900

2,200

2,579

532,325

250,100

1,711,620

67,044

356,475

197,890

30,600

895,900

234,750

4,276,704

457,700

230,000

1,346,800

64,400

220,000

168,000

24,150

870,000

127,600

3,508,650

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

2000-2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002

State

Production

2000 2001 2002 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 6,435.6 7,452.2 6,652.0

 1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 9 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Oct 1 Nov 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

605.0

290.0

1,065.0

625.0

1,480.0

855.0

1,600.0

400.0

65.0

965.0

185.0

296.0

615.0

4,250.0

104.0

159.5

13,559.5

7.5

239.0

5.2

16.5

268.2

605.0

297.5

1,065.0

864.0

1,480.0

855.0

1,600.0

400.0

70.2

965.0

185.0

296.0

615.0

4,266.5

104.0

159.5

13,827.7

585.0

232.0

930.0

477.0

1,430.0

500.0

1,170.0

385.0

56.0

945.0

190.0

286.0

560.0

4,600.0

100.0

174.0

12,620.0

7.4

209.0

7.0

18.0

241.4

585.0

239.4

930.0

686.0

1,430.0

500.0

1,170.0

385.0

63.0

945.0

190.0

286.0

560.0

4,618.0

100.0

174.0

12,861.4

730

1,142

826

1,359

720

580

719

834

916

832

511

686

763

481

929

566

694

928

1,283

969

1,059

1,254

730

1,137

826

1,338

720

580

719

834

920

832

511

686

763

483

929

566

705

640

1,241

841

1,439

621

749

821

798

857

559

429

369

660

522

576

676

663

908

1,309

960

987

1,263

640

1,231

841

1,399

621

749

821

798

869

559

429

369

660

524

576

676

674

615

1,241

841

1,439

604

720

821

798

857

483

455

302

651

532

480

579

653

908

1,309

960

987

1,263

615

1,231

841

1,399

604

720

821

798

869

483

455

302

651

534

480

579

665

920.0

690.0

1,833.0

1,770.0

2,220.0

1,034.0

2,396.0

695.0

124.0

1,673.0

197.0

423.0

978.0

4,260.0

201.3

188.1

19,602.4

14.5

639.0

10.5

36.4

700.4

920.0

704.5

1,833.0

2,409.0

2,220.0

1,034.0

2,396.0

695.0

134.5

1,673.0

197.0

423.0

978.0

4,296.4

201.3

188.1

20,302.8

750.0

600.0

1,630.0

1,430.0

1,800.0

750.0

2,000.0

640.0

100.0

950.0

180.0

180.0

760.0

5,100.0

100.0

210.0

17,180.0

14.0

570.0

14.0

37.0

635.0

750.0

614.0

1,630.0

2,000.0

1,800.0

750.0

2,000.0

640.0

114.0

950.0

180.0

180.0

760.0

5,137.0

100.0

210.0

17,815.0

 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3 Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2002 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 10 NASS, USDA

Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and

United States, 2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002 1

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Oct 1 Nov 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

CA

CO

ID

MI

MN

MT

NE

ND

OH

OR

WA

WY

US

44.7

36.8

179.0

166.0

426.0

53.5

41.4

237.0

0.6

10.0

7.0

41.6

1,243.6

48.0

40.6

210.0

175.0

446.0

57.0

42.6

284.0

1.7

10.9

4.0

36.5

1,356.3

36.2

22.4

25.9

19.4

18.3

21.5

20.3

18.1

20.0

29.1

36.1

20.6

20.7

38.8

20.2

25.6

18.5

19.2

21.0

19.0

18.5

19.0

29.7

38.3

19.5

20.9

38.8

19.7

25.3

18.0

19.2

20.0

18.0

18.5

20.0

29.4

37.5

18.5

20.7

1,618

824

4,636

3,220

7,796

1,150

840

4,290

12

291

253

857

25,787

1,862

800

5,313

3,150

8,563

1,140

767

5,254

34

320

150

675

28,028

 1 Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2001 and Forecasted November 1, 2002

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2001 2002 2001

2002

2001 2002

Oct 1 Nov 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

FL

HI

LA

TX

US

465.0

21.0

495.0

47.0

1,028.0

455.0

25.1

495.0

47.5

1,022.6

35.1

92.0

29.0

41.7

33.6

36.4

91.0

30.0

34.9

34.6

36.4

91.0

30.0

34.8

34.6

16,338

1,932

14,355

1,962

34,587

16,552

2,284

14,850

1,655

35,341

 1 Net tons.

Lentils: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2001-2002

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

ID

MT

ND

WA

US

54.0

22.0

45.0

80.0

201.0

50.0

25.0

53.0

75.0

203.0

53.0

20.0

44.0

80.0

197.0

49.0

22.0

47.0

75.0

193.0

Yield Production

2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

ID

MT

ND

WA

US

1,500

1,100

1,370

1,600

1,471

1,300

550

1,100

1,400

1,205

928

210

616

1,275

3,029

795

220

603

1,280

2,898

637

121

517

1,050

2,325
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 11 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2001-2002 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

ID

MT 2

ND

OR

WA

US

24.0

26.0

90.0

4.8

62.0

206.8

32.0

32.0

155.0

4.7

70.0

293.7

23.0

16.5

86.0

4.8

62.0

192.3

31.0

24.0

138.0

4.7

70.0

267.7

Yield Production

2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

ID

MT 2

ND

OR

WA

US

2,000

1,510

2,020

1,000

2,000

1,942

1,800

850

1,450

1,800

1,900

1,561

456

208

1,345

100

1,365

3,474

460

249

1,737

48

1,240

3,734

558

204

2,001

85

1,330

4,178

 1 Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas. 2 Revised.

Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2001-2002

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

ID

MT

OR

US

4.5

9.9

1.5

15.9

6.5

9.5

1.0

17.0

4.0

2.5

0.6

7.1

5.0

3.0

0.5

8.5

Yield Production

2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

ID

MT 1

OR

US

1,700

790

1,500

1,366

1,800

800

1,300

1,424

67

6

73

68

20

9

97

90

24

7

121

1 Estimates began in 2001.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 12 NASS, USDA

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2001 2002

2001 2002 2001 2002

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Sep

Oct

2,690

2,700

2,170

2,155

1,940

1,920

1,510

1,495

4,105

4,940

3,050

4,005

 1 Utilized fresh production.

Potatoes: Area Planted, Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2001-2002

Seasonal Group

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter 1

 Total

Spring 1

 Total

Summer 1

 Total

Fall

 CA

 CO

 ID

 10 SW Co

 Other ID

 IN

 ME

 MA

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NV

 NM

 NY

 ND

 OH

 OR

 Malheur

 Other OR

 PA

 RI

 SD

 UT

 WA

 WI

 Total

US

16.8

78.3

61.1

3.2

68.1

350.0

23.0

327.0

3.1

62.0

2.9

46.0

59.0

10.5

22.5

6.5

4.2

23.5

118.0

4.4

45.0

9.0

36.0

14.0

0.5

2.8

1.3

160.0

84.0

1,091.5

1,247.7

15.8

80.3

63.6

8.9

71.6

375.0

27.0

348.0

2.9

64.0

3.0

46.5

61.0

10.3

21.5

7.5

4.0

22.5

118.0

4.3

50.0

8.0

42.0

15.0

0.5

1.1

0.8

175.0

85.0

1,148.4

1,308.1

14.0

76.2

58.8

3.2

67.8

348.0

23.0

325.0

2.9

62.0

2.8

45.0

55.0

10.3

22.4

6.5

4.2

23.3

110.0

4.3

44.5

9.0

35.5

13.5

0.5

2.7

1.3

160.0

83.0

1,073.2

1,222.2

15.7

77.7

60.6

8.9

71.5

373.0

27.0

346.0

2.8

64.0

2.9

45.5

53.0

10.2

21.4

7.5

4.0

22.0

102.0

4.2

49.8

8.0

41.8

14.0

0.5

1.1

0.8

175.0

83.0

1,117.1

1,271.1

294

286

310

445

315

345

450

338

320

265

265

310

335

320

375

360

340

255

240

255

466

410

480

235

280

240

265

590

385

367

358

268

280

310

500

390

358

455

350

260

265

275

305

340

315

395

340

400

250

230

220

383

400

380

210

200

300

305

570

370

371

362

4,115

21,814

18,209

1,424

21,357

120,200

10,350

109,850

928

16,430

742

13,950

18,425

3,296

8,400

2,340

1,428

5,942

26,400

1,097

20,730

3,690

17,040

3,173

140

648

345

94,400

31,955

393,750

437,888

4,206

21,753

18,813

4,450

27,885

133,385

12,285

121,100

728

16,960

798

13,878

18,020

3,213

8,453

2,550

1,600

5,500

23,460

924

19,084

3,200

15,884

2,940

100

330

244

99,750

30,710

414,962

459,734

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 13 NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Percent of Varieties Planted, 2002 Crop

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts variety surveys in 8 States, accounting for 89 percent of

the forecast U. S. fall potato production. Colorado data are from a growers potato variety survey. The

remaining 7 States conduct Objective Yield Surveys where all producing areas were sampled in proportion to

planted acreage. Variety data shown below are actual percentages from these surveys.

Fall Potatoes: Percent of Major Varieties Planted,

Selected States and 8 States Total, 2002 Crop

State

and

Varieties

Pct. of

Planted

Acres

State

and

Varieties

Pct. of

Planted

Acres

State

and

Varieties

Pct. of

Planted

Acres

CO

 R Norkotah

 R Nugget

 Centennial R

 Yukon Gold

 Sangre

 Silverton R

 Cherry Red

 Other

Total

ID

 R Burbank

 Ranger R

 R Norkotah

 Shepody

 Silverton R

 Other

Total

ME

 R Burbank

 Frito-Lay

 Ontario

 Shepody

 Superior

 R Norkotah

 Atlantic

 Norwis

 Chieftain

 Katahdin

 Norland

 Snowden

 Yukon Gold

 Goldrush

 Other

Total

MN

 R Burbank

 Norland

 Pontiac

 Cascade

 La Soda

59.1

12.7

6.5

3.6

2.0

1.9

0.8

13.4

100.0

71.0

12.0

7.5

3.4

2.4

3.7

100.0

36.4

10.9

9.7

9.2

7.2

4.7

3.4

2.2

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.1

7.4

100.0

55.2

20.1

4.2

2.8

2.2

 NorValley

 Shepody

 Silverton R

 Snowden

 Yukon Gold

 Other

Total

ND

 R Burbank

 Shepody

 NorValley

 Norland

 Frito-Lay

 Dakota Pearl

 Snowden

 La Soda

 Goldrush

 La Rouge

 Other

Total

OR

 R Burbank

 Ranger R

 Shepody

 R Norkotah

 Frito-Lay

 Umatilla R

 Silverton R

 Other

Total

WA

 R Burbank

 Ranger R

 R Norkotah

 Shepody

 Umatilla R

 Chieftain

 Silverton R

 La Soda

 Other

Total

1.7

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

8.8

100.0

39.3

20.1

10.2

5.6

4.8

3.4

2.6

2.3

2.2

1.3

8.2

100.0

24.3

19.2

18.8

16.8

9.8

1.8

1.4

7.9

100.0

34.8

22.3

11.8

10.3

8.1

3.9

3.1

1.8

3.9

100.0

WI

 R Burbank

 R Norkotah

 Frito-Lay

 Goldrush

 Norland

 Snowden

 Superior

 Atlantic

 Pike

 Ontario

 Silverton R

 Other

Total

TOTAL(8 States)

 R Burbank

 R Norkotah

 Ranger R

 Shepody

 Frito-Lay

 Norland

 Silverton R

 Umatilla R

 Goldrush

 NorValley

 Snowden

 Superior

 R Nugget

 Chieftain

 La Soda

 Ontario

 Centennial R

 Atlantic

 Yukon Gold

 Dakota Pearl

 Pontiac

 Cascade

 La Rouge

 Sangre

 Norwis

 Katahdin

 Other

Total

18.7

17.7

15.3

11.9

9.8

6.1

5.7

2.7

1.1

1.0

0.8

9.2

100.0

45.9

11.8

9.4

7.1

3.1

2.8

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

6.3

100.0
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 14 NASS, USDA

Selected Small Grains: Area Planted, Selected States

and United States, 2002 1

Crop

Area Planted

Montana North Dakota United States

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

All Wheat

 Durum

 Other Spring

5,790

590

3,750

9,080

2,100

6,900

60,358

2,909

15,714

 1 Updated from "Small Grains 2002 Summary" released September 30, 2002.

Selected Small Grains: Area Harvested, Selected States

and United States, 2002 1

Crop

Area Harvested

Montana North Dakota United States

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

All Wheat

 Durum

 Other Spring

4,765

565

3,450

7,920

1,950

5,900

45,817

2,703

13,463

 1 Updated from "Small Grains 2002 Summary" released September 30, 2002.

Selected Small Grains: Yield, Selected States

and United States, 2002 1

Crop

Yield

Montana North Dakota United States

Bushels Bushels Bushels

All Wheat

 Durum

 Other Spring

23.1

23.0

22.0

27.3

25.0

28.0

35.3

29.4

29.3

 1 Updated from "Small Grains 2002 Summary" released September 30, 2002.

Selected Small Grains: Production, Selected States

and United States, 2002 1

Crop

Production

Montana North Dakota United States

1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

All Wheat

 Durum

 Other Spring

109,895

12,995

75,900

216,610

48,750

165,200

1,616,441

79,450

394,189

 1 Updated from "Small Grains 2002 Summary" released September 30, 2002.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 15 NASS, USDA

Selected Small Grains: Stocks by Position, Selected States

and United States, September 1, 2002 1

State

On

Farms

Off

Farms 2

Total All

Positions

Durum Wheat 3

1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

ND

Oth Sts

US

51,000

15,000

66,000

7,900

18,654

26,554

58,900

33,654

92,554

All Wheat

MT

ND

US

112,000

196,000

580,200

27,250

66,200

1,151,952

139,250

262,200

1,732,152

 1 Updated from "Grains Stocks" released September 30, 2002. 2 Included stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, and processors. 3 Included in all wheat.

Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 2000-2002 1 2

Year

Winter Spring

Hard Total

Red

Soft

Red White HardRed White Durum

1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

2000

2001

2002

846,324

766,795

609,243

471,356

399,670

332,275

248,343

195,014

201,284

502,318

475,515

356,597

54,314

36,493

37,592

109,805

83,556

79,450

2,232,460

1,957,043

1,616,441

 1 Wheat class estimates are based on the latest varietal acreage survey data available. 2 Updated from "Small Grains 2002 Summary" released September 30, 2002.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 16 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

4,967.0

75,752.0

4,403.0

650.0

3,335.0

1,328.0

10,252.0

59,597.0

41,078.0

2,910.0

15,609.0

1,494.0

585.0

45.8

1,541.2

3.7

188.0

74,075.0

2,633.0

15,768.5

15,498.5

270.0

1,370.8

15.9

1,429.9

206.8

201.0

1,247.7

16.8

78.3

61.1

1,091.5

97.9

5,073.0

78,847.0

5,005.0

475.0

3,231.0

1,395.0

9,290.0

60,358.0

41,735.0

2,909.0

15,714.0

1,513.0

844.0

155.0

1,462.0

2.0

207.0

73,043.0

2,486.0

14,380.5

14,116.0

264.5

1,408.8

17.0

1,874.3

293.7

203.0

1,308.1

15.8

80.3

63.6

1,148.4

94.4

4,289.0

68,808.0

6,148.0

63,511.0

23,812.0

39,699.0

1,905.0

580.0

3,314.0

255.0

8,584.0

336.0

48,633.0

31,295.0

2,789.0

14,549.0

1,455.0

578.0

44.2

1,411.9

3.1

177.0

72,975.0

2,555.0

13,827.7

13,559.5

268.2

1,243.6

1,028.0

432.4

7.1

1,243.0

192.3

197.0

6.3

0.4

35.9

78.5

1,222.2

14.0

76.2

58.8

1,073.2

19.5

93.5

0.4

4,135.0

70,541.0

64,709.0

24,134.0

40,575.0

2,098.0

3,207.0

286.0

7,528.0

45,817.0

29,651.0

2,703.0

13,463.0

1,378.0

821.0

146.0

1,360.5

1.8

198.0

71,799.0

2,320.0

12,861.4

12,620.0

241.4

1,356.3

1,022.6

434.3

8.5

1,690.6

267.7

193.0

0.3

29.3

1,271.1

15.7

77.7

60.6

1,117.1

91.8

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 17 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.2

138.2

16.6

2.47

3.37

1.93

61.4

33.2

6,429

27.3

59.9

11.1

40.2

43.5

30.0

35.2

1,374

19.8

930

3,029

1,306

1,365

39.6

1,338

705

694

1,254

20.7

33.6

2,293

1,366

1,572

1,942

1,471

1,270

50,000

1,861

81

358

294

286

310

367

105

156

54.9

127.6

2.32

3.09

1.87

56.8

6,611

24.4

50.7

35.3

38.5

29.4

29.3

1,151

2,579

37.5

1,118

665

653

1,263

20.7

34.6

2,040

1,424

1,632

1,561

1,205

45,000

1,927

362

268

280

310

371

249,420

9,506,840

102,352

156,703

80,266

76,437

117,024

19,250

213,045

6,971

514,524

3,728

1,957,043

1,361,479

83,556

512,008

1,998,515

7,452.2

11,455

41,106

4,276,704

4,050

241,665

2,890,682

3,418,759

20,302.8

19,602.4

700.4

25,787

34,587

991,519

97

19,541

3,734

2,898

640

8,000

18,000

66,832.1

6,343

437,888

4,115

21,814

18,209

393,750

2,052

14,565

6,400

226,873

9,003,364

150,447

74,655

75,792

119,132

212,013

6,985

381,499

1,616,441

1,142,802

79,450

394,189

1,585,925

6,652.0

3,508,650

2,689,691

2,592,753

17,815.0

17,180.0

635.0

28,028

35,341

886,020

121

27,594

4,178

2,325

14,400

56,425.5

459,734

4,206

21,753

18,813

414,962

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 18 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2001 2002 2003

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lb

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,462

2

996

12,221

95

373

56

9,629.1

82.5

28,000.0

6,552.5

134.0

55,000.0

2,441.4

1,005.8

150.0

21.2

830,000

49.5

338,500

161,000

305.0

1,049

2,427

1

828

12,543

97

420

70

8,910.6

89.7

7,269.3

90.0

2,531.7

944.6

155.0

15.2

980,000

18.0

201,700

280,000

275.0

1,356

2,221

904

11,313

108

350

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 19 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,010,100

30,656,080

1,781,850

263,050

1,349,640

537,430

4,148,880

24,118,310

16,623,860

1,177,650

6,316,810

604,610

236,740

18,530

623,710

1,500

76,080

29,977,410

1,065,550

6,381,350

6,272,090

109,270

554,750

6,430

578,670

83,690

81,340

504,930

6,800

31,690

24,730

441,720

39,620

2,052,990

31,908,590

2,025,470

192,230

1,307,550

564,540

3,759,570

24,426,280

16,889,740

1,177,240

6,359,300

612,300

341,560

62,730

591,660

810

83,770

29,559,770

1,006,060

5,819,640

5,712,600

107,040

570,130

6,880

758,510

118,860

82,150

529,370

6,390

32,500

25,740

464,750

38,200

1,735,720

27,845,910

2,488,030

25,702,270

9,636,480

16,065,790

770,930

234,720

1,341,140

103,200

3,473,860

135,980

19,681,290

12,664,770

1,128,680

5,887,830

588,820

233,910

17,890

571,380

1,250

71,630

29,532,250

1,033,980

5,595,930

5,487,390

108,540

503,270

416,020

174,990

2,870

503,030

77,820

79,720

2,550

150

14,530

31,770

494,610

5,670

30,840

23,800

434,310

7,890

37,840

180

1,673,390

28,547,240

26,187,090

9,766,790

16,420,300

849,040

1,297,840

115,740

3,046,510

18,541,680

11,999,460

1,093,880

5,448,340

557,660

332,250

59,080

550,580

730

80,130

29,056,340

938,880

5,204,880

5,107,190

97,690

548,880

413,840

175,760

3,440

684,170

108,340

78,110

130

11,850

514,400

6,350

31,440

24,520

452,080

37,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 20 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.13

8.67

37.32

5.53

7.56

4.32

2.20

1.86

7.21

1.72

3.76

24.87

2.71

2.93

2.01

2.37

1.54

1.24

1.04

3.40

1.46

1.53

2.66

1.50

0.79

0.78

1.40

46.48

75.42

2.57

1.53

1.76

2.18

1.65

1.42

56.04

2.09

0.09

40.16

32.94

32.09

34.71

41.12

0.12

17.46

2.95

8.01

5.21

6.93

4.19

2.04

7.41

1.53

3.18

2.37

2.59

1.98

1.97

2.89

2.52

1.25

0.75

0.73

1.42

46.32

77.47

2.29

1.60

1.83

1.75

1.35

50.44

2.16

40.54

30.03

31.38

34.80

41.64

5,430,480

241,484,860

92,852,170

142,158,570

72,816,090

69,342,480

1,698,600

436,580

9,663,560

177,070

13,069,510

3,381,980

53,261,980

37,053,390

2,274,020

13,934,570

906,510

6,760,520

290,970

18,650

1,939,880

1,840

109,620

78,671,470

1,550,720

4,420,410

4,267,920

152,490

23,393,570

31,376,800

449,750

4,400

886,360

169,370

131,450

29,030

3,630

8,160

30,310

2,880

19,862,270

186,650

989,470

825,950

17,860,200

930

660,660

2,900

4,939,580

228,695,980

136,483,220

67,725,880

68,757,350

1,729,200

9,616,750

177,430

9,690,520

43,992,310

31,101,970

2,162,270

10,728,070

719,360

6,034,590

1,591,500

73,201,390

1,176,050

3,878,760

3,740,500

138,250

25,426,570

32,060,820

401,890

5,490

1,251,640

189,510

105,460

6,530

25,590

20,853,180

190,780

986,700

853,340

18,822,360

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 21 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2001 2002 2003

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,233,490

1,810

903,560

11,086,700

86,180

338,380

50,800

4,367,690

74,810

12,700

5,944,350

121,560

24,950

1,107,400

912,460

136,080

19,230

376,480

44,910

153,540

73,030

276,690

5,240

2,201,740

910

751,150

11,378,820

88,000

381,020

63,500

4,041,780

81,370

6,594,600

81,650

1,148,360

856,880

140,610

13,790

444,520

16,330

91,490

127,010

249,480

6,780

2,014,860

820,100

10,262,980

97,980

317,510

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 22 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting Objective Yield surveys in 7 corn producing States

during 2002. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through

harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are rounded actual field counts from

this survey.

Corn for Grain: Plant Population per Acre,

Selected States, 1998-2002

State Month 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

MN

NE

 All

NE

 Irrigated

NE

 Non-Irrigated

OH

WI

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

25,550

25,400

25,400

25,400

24,350

24,350

24,300

24,300

25,700

25,550

25,600

25,650

27,750

27,650

27,650

27,650

23,350

23,050

23,050

23,050

26,650

26,250

26,250

26,250

18,200

18,150

18,150

18,150

25,350

25,250

25,450

25,450

26,600

26,000

25,850

25,850

25,750

25,700

25,650

25,650

25,250

25,100

25,100

25,100

25,850

25,900

25,900

25,900

26,750

26,800

26,800

26,800

23,200

23,100

23,100

23,100

26,350

26,250

26,200

26,200

19,000

18,900

18,900

18,900

25,000

25,050

25,000

25,000

26,050

26,150

26,200

26,200

25,800

25,800

25,800

25,800

25,050

25,150

25,150

25,150

26,500

26,200

26,300

26,300

27,500

27,250

27,150

27,150

23,700

23,400

23,400

23,450

27,300

27,000

27,000

27,050

18,500

18,200

18,200

18,200

25,200

24,900

24,800

24,900

26,550

26,150

26,200

26,200

26,750

26,700

26,650

26,650

26,100

25,900

25,950

25,950

26,500

26,550

26,450

26,450

28,050

28,000

28,000

28,000

22,750

22,650

22,750

22,750

26,250

26,100

26,100

26,050

18,550

18,450

18,700

18,700

26,150

26,100

26,050

26,050

26,800

26,950

27,000

27,000

26,400

26,350

26,350

25,350

25,350

25,300

26,850

26,700

26,700

26,950

26,850

26,800

23,250

23,250

23,350

26,400

26,450

26,450

19,450

19,450

19,650

24,850

24,450

24,400

26,550

26,400

26,650
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 23 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,

Selected States, 1998-2002

State Month 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

MN

NE

 All

NE

 Irrigated

NE

 Non-Irrigated

OH

WI

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

24,450

24,300

24,300

24,300

23,400

23,450

23,350

23,350

24,550

24,250

24,300

24,400

27,750

27,550

27,550

27,550

22,800

22,500

22,500

22,500

25,850

25,500

25,450

25,450

18,100

17,850

17,850

17,850

24,650

24,800

25,000

24,950

26,050

24,950

24,850

24,850

25,050

24,950

24,850

24,900

24,350

23,950

23,900

23,900

25,300

25,300

25,300

25,300

26,650

26,700

26,650

26,650

22,800

22,650

22,600

22,600

25,800

25,600

25,600

25,600

18,800

18,700

18,700

18,700

24,000

24,100

24,050

24,050

25,600

25,700

25,700

25,700

25,500

25,450

25,450

25,450

24,500

24,550

24,650

24,650

26,000

25,600

25,650

25,650

27,350

27,350

27,250

27,250

22,800

22,750

22,700

22,750

26,500

26,350

26,350

26,350

17,550

17,500

17,500

17,500

24,450

24,250

23,950

24,100

26,100

25,500

25,550

25,550

25,650

25,550

25,550

25,550

25,500

25,350

25,400

25,400

25,450

25,350

25,250

25,250

27,500

26,750

26,700

26,700

22,200

21,950

22,050

22,050

25,550

25,350

25,350

25,350

18,050

17,800

18,000

18,000

25,550

25,250

25,150

25,100

26,100

26,100

26,100

26,100

25,050

25,050

25,000

23,900

23,650

23,650

25,950

25,800

25,800

26,550

26,150

26,100

21,650

21,250

21,200

25,800

25,700

25,650

16,700

15,950

15,950

23,700

22,400

22,350

25,950

25,050

25,250
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 24 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Percentage Distribution by Plant Population Per Acre

Selected States, 1998-2002

State Year

Plant Populations

Less than

20,000

20,001-

22,500

22,501-

25,000

25,001-

27,500

27,501-

30,000

More than

30,000

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent

IL

IN

IA

MN

NE

OH

WI

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

10.9

6.7

7.7

4.2

5.6

13.1

10.6

8.9

7.1

10.4

8.3

6.3

3.6

5.1

3.6

2.4

11.1

6.1

1.9

4.4

33.1

28.8

32.2

25.5

17.5

8.0

8.1

11.3

7.8

16.4

12.0

4.7

9.3

5.2

5.9

8.6

9.7

10.0

9.2

8.9

14.3

9.3

12.7

7.7

8.4

8.3

10.1

10.8

6.9

7.8

4.2

3.1

7.3

3.7

5.1

11.7

14.8

9.5

13.6

11.8

6.2

11.7

12.2

5.2

16.4

13.3

10.6

8.1

9.1

4.7

22.5

21.6

20.7

19.2

17.8

19.0

23.6

25.9

18.6

20.1

20.7

22.4

17.2

20.1

17.4

12.5

11.1

11.6

12.3

16.5

13.0

17.3

10.6

14.9

17.0

26.5

26.1

17.4

22.4

21.8

12.0

24.7

20.9

13.0

18.8

28.7

29.6

32.1

28.3

28.3

33.9

32.9

27.8

32.0

32.5

31.2

24.8

31.4

27.4

30.3

22.0

25.9

19.5

21.6

29.1

18.4

17.1

18.8

16.2

24.8

34.5

34.3

30.4

29.2

20.9

22.9

18.8

22.2

27.2

23.5

19.9

23.8

18.8

26.1

24.9

14.3

18.0

16.5

25.0

18.2

22.8

25.2

26.2

25.9

28.1

35.7

27.8

28.7

34.0

29.7

15.5

15.7

18.5

21.3

19.7

16.8

14.4

21.7

25.9

20.0

22.9

27.1

22.1

23.4

33.0

9.4

8.6

10.7

13.0

14.5

5.4

5.6

8.2

9.6

10.4

8.7

11.2

10.8

14.6

12.8

23.2

21.0

26.8

26.5

15.2

8.3

6.3

10.4

8.5

9.2

8.0

5.4

7.0

9.5

4.5

16.9

14.1

17.4

22.1

14.1
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 25 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Frequency of Farmer Reported Row Widths,

Selected States, 1998-2002

State Year

Row Width (inches)

Less than

30 30 36 38 More than38

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

MN

NE

OH

WI

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

3

2

6

5

2

1

4

2

1

3

3

3

9

18

14

25

20

1

1

3

3

7

2

1

1

3

2

2

4

215

221

225

226

227

143

147

140

149

142

208

215

214

227

225

127

124

127

133

128

140

148

156

143

155

104

110

108

109

114

58

60

57

58

71

35

34

33

21

24

19

17

18

16

17

24

30

27

15

20

26

14

18

9

8

84

73

74

93

83

6

6

11

5

3

8

8

9

10

11

26

16

16

16

11

8

7

7

3

1

54

52

41

40

42

13

14

7

7

8

8

12

9

10

5

8

4

1

2

1

26

25

21

19

13

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 26 NASS, USDA

Corn for Grain: Percentage Distribution by Measured Row Width and Average

Row Width, Selected States, 1998-2002

State Year

Number

of

Samples

Row Width (inches) Average

Row

Width 20.5

or less

20.6-

30.5

30.6-

34.5

34.6-

36.5

36.6-

38.5

38.6 &

Greater

Number Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Inches

IL

IN

IA

MN

NE

OH

WI

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

267

269

273

261

269

168

161

158

156

154

275

286

279

274

281

169

162

164

162

158

224

227

224

235

229

116

111

116

116

110

83

85

86

77

85

0.4

1.5

0.7

1.2

1.9

0.4

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.6

2.4

2.5

1.9

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.9

1.3

0.9

0.9

1.2

2.3

1.3

1.2

64.5

63.6

65.6

67.1

74.4

57.7

62.7

67.7

67.3

69.5

53.1

53.6

56.3

63.2

62.2

62.0

63.5

62.3

66.7

69.5

41.1

43.3

52.3

43.8

46.3

73.3

65.8

70.7

74.1

78.2

49.4

40.0

38.4

57.1

60.0

14.6

18.6

16.8

18.0

11.9

25.0

23.0

14.6

21.2

17.5

19.6

17.1

18.6

17.2

15.3

17.2

19.8

20.1

22.2

19.0

17.9

19.8

15.6

15.3

17.0

15.5

28.8

19.0

20.7

17.3

14.5

21.2

25.6

11.7

18.8

9.7

7.4

10.3

7.7

8.2

9.5

5.0

7.0

6.4

10.4

8.0

9.8

6.8

2.9

5.7

10.1

4.3

6.1

3.1

3.2

27.2

23.3

22.3

26.4

23.6

1.7

1.8

5.2

1.8

4.8

9.4

8.1

7.8

5.9

10.5

9.3

6.2

4.6

3.7

5.4

6.8

8.2

5.1

2.6

13.8

12.9

15.8

13.1

9.6

7.7

9.3

7.3

4.3

5.1

12.1

11.0

9.4

12.3

11.8

5.2

3.6

4.3

2.6

0.9

24.1

20.0

16.3

14.3

8.2

0.7

0.7

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

2.5

0.6

5.1

6.6

1.8

2.9

6.8

2.4

3.1

1.8

1.2

1.3

1.3

2.2

1.3

3.4

0.8

2.6

0.9

6.0

9.4

9.3

7.8

5.9

31.5

31.4

31.3

30.9

30.8

31.2

31.3

31.0

31.0

31.0

32.1

32.5

31.9

31.6

31.8

31.1

30.6

30.5

29.5

30.0

32.8

32.6

32.1

32.7

32.3

30.9

30.6

30.9

30.7

30.3

32.5

33.1

32.6

32.2

31.3
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 27 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting Objective Yield surveys in 7 soybean producing

States during 2002. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through

harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are actual field counts from this

survey.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet,

Selected States, 1998-2002

State Month 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Number Number Number Number Number

IL

IN

IA

MN

MO

NE

OH

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Final

2,087

1,889

1,902

1,906

1,883

1,677

1,709

1,709

1,914

1,729

1,745

1,748

1,598

1,450

1,450

1,442

1,847

1,876

1,878

1,931

1,849

1,784

1,810

1,810

1,887

1,647

1,710

1,710

1,917

1,823

1,788

1,787

1,771

1,627

1,622

1,622

2,142

1,914

1,894

1,878

1,612

1,555

1,563

1,565

1,242

1,467

1,508

1,525

1,877

1,880

1,872

1,872

1,699

1,463

1,494

1,494

2,162

1,996

2,020

2,021

1,917

1,786

1,784

1,784

1,830

1,674

1,660

1,660

1,607

1,509

1,507

1,507

1,974

1,769

1,782

1,793

1,795

1,617

1,619

1,619

1,893

1,625

1,685

1,697

2,041

1,932

1,932

1,932

2,003

1,882

1,880

1,869

1,809

1,778

1,787

1,796

1,492

1,433

1,475

1,475

1,424

1,732

1,874

1,921

1,961

1,932

2,003

2,048

1,801

1,834

1,785

1,785

1,952

1,785

1,795

1,773

1,677

1,680

1,988

1,828

1,867

1,688

1,785

1,739

1,427

1,609

1,681

1,548

1,517

1,587

1,593

1,495

1,499
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 28 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Percentage Distribution by Measured Row Width

and Average Width, Selected States, 1998-2002

State Year

Number

of

Samples

Row Width (inches) Average

Row

Width 10.0 & 1

less 1

10.1-

18.5

18.6-

28.5

28.6-

34.5

34.6 &

Greater

Number Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Inches

IL

IN

IA

MN

MO

NE

OH

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

205

219

214

208

216

160

148

143

153

149

217

224

205

207

204

105

100

95

91

103

125

126

121

126

130

96

86

82

93

89

127

125

125

131

132

54.5

44.3

44.6

41.3

36.9

62.1

68.9

73.1

70.2

57.7

21.7

18.4

19.6

16.7

14.5

17.6

22.1

23.7

14.8

19.9

49.6

40.9

33.5

31.3

24.6

16.1

13.4

17.1

19.9

16.5

74.0

78.0

77.2

67.8

71.5

17.8

31.6

36.2

33.4

44.8

18.8

19.9

17.8

19.5

31.2

22.1

25.7

25.2

27.0

26.3

21.0

26.1

19.5

25.8

24.3

26.4

34.1

40.8

43.7

48.1

18.8

23.8

26.8

30.9

29.5

15.3

15.6

19.6

21.8

23.9

2.0

3.0

0.9

1.7

2.1

1.9

0.4

2.1

1.0

2.0

7.1

7.4

7.8

9.8

7.9

15.7

12.1

12.1

17.0

20.9

3.6

6.7

8.3

2.0

6.9

4.2

5.2

6.1

8.3

5.7

2.8

1.6

1.2

3.1

1.5

22.0

16.5

16.4

22.6

14.8

15.3

8.8

7.0

8.6

8.4

41.0

41.8

43.5

39.4

45.9

43.8

33.7

42.6

41.9

33.0

14.0

14.3

15.7

19.0

16.5

38.0

40.7

34.1

26.5

31.8

7.1

4.0

2.0

6.9

2.3

3.7

4.6

1.9

1.0

1.4

1.9

2.0

0.0

0.7

0.7

8.1

6.7

3.9

7.1

5.4

1.9

6.0

2.1

0.5

1.9

6.4

4.0

1.7

4.0

3.9

22.9

16.9

15.9

14.4

16.5

0.8

0.8

0.0

0.4

0.8

15.5

15.8

14.9

16.0

15.5

13.4

11.7

10.9

11.6

12.5

22.1

22.6

21.9

22.5

23.0

22.0

20.4

20.8

21.5

20.2

15.6

15.6

15.9

16.5

17.1

25.2

24.2

23.0

21.6

22.8

10.8

10.1

9.6

11.3

10.2

 1 Broadcast soybeans included as "10.0 inches and less" but excluded in computation of average width.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 29 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting Objective Yield surveys in 7 cotton producing

States during 2002. Randomly selected cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to

obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 1998-2002 1

State Month 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

CA

GA

LA

MS

NC

TX

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

637

644

633

638

640

755

670

665

655

655

629

731

716

690

690

694

607

600

600

600

835

852

823

821

821

626

583

590

597

597

498

467

477

479

482

720

700

693

689

689

921

805

779

777

776

596

582

621

636

632

722

743

728

728

728

761

803

767

766

766

623

646

619

621

622

465

446

447

455

456

874

767

755

755

755

760

790

801

800

800

597

631

621

629

629

722

692

674

674

674

657

665

652

650

650

670

724

743

747

747

408

388

397

404

448

747

780

816

756

756

939

902

921

918

918

590

677

651

664

664

625

592

582

588

588

754

696

680

679

679

719

722

696

705

705

441

435

439

445

445

840

763

784

945

1,041

1,009

569

604

591

663

756

749

802

783

768

636

629

560

536

511

520

 1 Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially

opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November and December, excludes small bolls.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 30 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 31 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 32 NASS, USDA

October Weather Summary

Wet weather hampered fieldwork across the South and East, but further eased long-term drought in the latter

region. Hurricane Lili made landfall along the Louisiana coast on October 3, moving ashore as a windier but

less wet system than Tropical Storm Isidore the week before. A series of storm systems followed the tropical

weather, contributing to lowland flooding in the western Gulf Coast region and significant soybean and cotton

harvest delays in the Delta. From Georgia to the Mid-Atlantic States, above-normal precipitation improved

groundwater supplies, but a gradual drying trend prevailed across Florida’s peninsula. Meanwhile, rain and

snow slowed corn and soybean harvesting in the upper Midwest, but showers replenished soil moisture

reserves in the Ohio Valley. A small portion of the Midwestern winter wheat area, including northern

portions of Indiana and Ohio and much of lower Michigan, remained unfavorably dry by month’s end. Earlyseason cold outbreaks halted winter wheat emergence and development across the northern and central High

Plains, where a patchy snow cover provided wheat with some protection from late-month temperatures that

ranged from -10 to 10 degrees F. The combination of extremely cold weather and limited soil moisture

reserves raised concerns about the establishment and winter hardiness of the northwestern half of the Plains’

wheat crop. In contrast, widespread precipitation soaked the southeastern half of the Plains, aiding pastures

and winter grains but slowing fieldwork, including cotton, peanut, and sorghum harvesting. Farther west,

cold, dry weather hampered the emergence and development of Northwestern winter wheat. Elsewhere in the

West, cool, mostly dry weather favored autumn fieldwork, although the region continued to suffer from

drought-reduced irrigation reserves and severely stressed rangelands.

October Crop Summary

Widespread, heavy rain curtailed corn and soybean harvests in the western Corn Belt and winter wheat

seeding in the central Great Plains early in the month, but mostly dry weather favored progress during the rest

of the month. Along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland areas of the southern Great Plains, Mississippi Delta,

and Southeast, wet weather hampered harvest of cotton, peanut, rice, and sorghum fields most of the month. 

Periods of light precipitation provided adequate moisture for germinating winter wheat in the eastern Corn

Belt and the Great Plains, but cold weather and moisture shortages limited germination and growth in parts of

the central and northern Great Plains. Dry weather supported field and orchard work in the Pacific Coast

States.

The Nation’s corn acreage was 96 percent mature on October 13, equaling the 5-year average for this date. 

Above-normal temperatures quickly ripened late-maturing fields around the Great Lakes and eastern Corn

Belt, but cold nighttime temperatures slowed ripening on the Great Plains. On November 3, harvest was

77 percent complete, about 5 days behind the 84-percent average for this date. At the beginning of October,

harvest was active in the southern and eastern Corn Belt, but heavy rain prevented progress in the western

Corn Belt and Great Plains. During the remainder of October, favorably dry weather supported harvest across

the Corn Belt, although most areas experienced at least brief delays due to rain or snow. On November 3,

harvest was well ahead of normal in the eastern Corn Belt, but lagged well behind normal in the northwestern

Corn Belt and adjacent parts of the Great Plains. Harvest was least advanced in Wisconsin and South Dakota,

where only about one-half of the crop was harvested by November 3.

Ninety-six percent of the soybean acreage was dropping leaves by October 13, matching the 5-year average. 

Nearly all fields in the western Corn Belt and northern Great Plains were shedding leaves by October 6, and

warm weather promoted ripening in the lower Mississippi Valley and along the Atlantic Coastal Plain until

midmonth. Harvest progressed slightly behind normal during October, and by November 3, harvest was

87 percent complete, compared with the 5-year average of 92 percent. Scattered precipitation periodically

interfered with harvest across the Corn Belt during October, but delays were mostly brief. The longest delays

were in the western Corn Belt and upper Mississippi Valley, where heavy rain delayed early-month harvest

progress. Heavy rain also held harvest far behind normal along the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent

areas of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Harvest approached completion well ahead of normal in Michigan

and near normal in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio. On November 3, harvest was 3 weeks behind the

5-year average in Louisiana, and more than 1 week behind normal in Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, and

Tennessee.

Ninety-four percent of the cotton acreage had open bolls on October 13, slightly more than the 93 percent

average for this date. Above-normal temperatures promoted ripening of late-maturing fields throughout the

South at the beginning of the month, but colder-than-normal temperatures hindered ripening in the southern

Great Plains as midmonth approached. Harvest was 53 percent complete by November 3, but progress was

well behind the average of 69 percent. Picking delays began at the beginning of the month, when 2 tropical
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 33 NASS, USDA

storms saturated fields along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland areas of the Mississippi Delta and Southeast. 

As the month progressed, rain delays persisted and extended into inland areas of the southern Great Plains. 

By midmonth, picking was more than 2 weeks behind the 5-year average in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,

and Tennessee. In the Southeast, lengthy delays were mostly confined to areas along the eastern Gulf Coast,

while areas along the Atlantic Coastal Plain experienced shorter delays. However, only Virginia remained

ahead of normal at the end of the month. In the Southwest, dry weather supported picking most of the month.

On November 3, the Nation’s winter wheat acreage was 90 percent planted and 80 percent emerged. Planting

progress equaled the 5-year average, while emergence exceeded the 5-year average of 76 percent. Seeding of

the soft red winter wheat acreage rapidly progressed in the Corn Belt, and occasional showers provided nearly

ideal topsoil moisture for seed germination. Elsewhere, rain frequently interrupted sowing in the southern

Great Plains and adjacent areas of the central Great Plains, while mostly dry weather supported planting

across the rest of the Great Plains. Fields quickly emerged in the Great Plains, even though moisture

shortages remained in significant pockets of the central and northern High Plains through most of the month. 

At the end of the month, a mixture of wintery precipitation provided adequate moisture for germination and

growth on the northern Great Plains, but extremely cold weather nearly halted emergence and above-ground

development. Planting accelerated in Arkansas, California, and Oregon after midmonth. Favorable topsoil

moisture aided rapid emergence in Arkansas, while unfavorably dry soils limited emergence in Oregon.

The rice harvest progressed to 96 percent complete on October 27, slightly less than the 5-year average of

98 percent. Tropical storms halted harvest progress in the lower Mississippi Valley early in the month,

especially in Louisiana and Mississippi. Tropical storm Lili’s heavy downpours remained east of the

Mississippi River, but Arkansas and Missouri also experienced some rain delays during the month. In Texas,

the first crop harvest was virtually complete before the tropical storms moved inland, but the heavy rain

delayed harvest of the ratoon crop. Dry weather aided harvest in California.

Cold weather hindered sorghum ripening and delayed harvest across most of the Great Plains during October. 

In the central and southern Corn Belt, above-normal temperatures quickly ripened fields early in the month,

but below-normal temperatures delayed ripening of late-maturing fields during the remainder of the month. 

On October 27, the crop was 93 percent mature, 5 percentage points less than the 5-year average for this date. 

In addition to late ripening, frequent rain also contributed to a slow harvest pace during October. Harvest

delays were longer and more frequent in the central and southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. 

In the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains, rain delays were shorter and less frequent. On November 3,

harvest was 70 percent complete, well behind the 5-year average of 87 percent. Harvest was nearly complete

in the lower Mississippi Valley and Corn Belt, but lagged more than 2 weeks behind normal in Kansas.

The peanut harvest progressed slowly during October, as rain frequently interrupted digging along the eastern

Gulf Coast and southern Great Plains. Harvest delays were shorter and less frequent on the Atlantic Coastal

Plain. On November 3, harvest was 75 percent complete, well behind the 5-year average of 86 percent. In

Texas, harvest was nearly 2 weeks behind normal on November 3.

The sugarbeet harvest was aided by mostly dry weather and favorably cold piling temperatures during

October, especially in the Red River Valley, the High Plains, and Pacific Coast States. In Idaho, harvest

progressed later than normal due to slow ripening. Meanwhile, warm weather delayed early-month progress

in Michigan, but below-normal temperatures favored beet piling after midmonth. By November 3, harvest

was 94 percent complete in the 4 major sugarbeet-producing States. Harvest was virtually complete in

Minnesota and North Dakota and neared completion in Michigan. Idaho’s harvest accelerated after

midmonth, but remained behind the 5-year average at the end of the month.

The sunflower harvest progressed behind last year and the 5-year average throughout the month, as cold

weather delayed ripening. Harvest was especially late in North Dakota. On November 3, harvest was

66 percent complete, compared with last year’s 88 percent and the 5-year average of 84 percent.

Corn for grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 70.5 million acres, unchanged

from October but up 3 percent from 2001. Corn objective yield data on November 1 indicate ear counts in

the combined seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and

Wisconsin) are down slightly from last month. If realized, ear counts will be the highest on record in Iowa

while the remaining States are down from 2001. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 34 NASS, USDA

As of November 3, seventy-seven percent of the corn acreage was harvested in the 18 major corn-producing

States. This was slightly behind last year’s 78 percent and about 5 days behind the five-year average of

84 percent. 

Above-normal temperatures and favorably dry weather during the first half of October quickly ripened latematuring fields around the Great Lakes and eastern Corn Belt which allowed producers to make good harvest

progress. However, cold nighttime temperatures on the Great Plains slowed ripening of the crop. Harvest

progress was slowed in the western Corn Belt and Great Plains due to heavy rainfall at the beginning of the

month. After mid-month, producers experienced only brief delays due to light rain and snow. Harvest

progress in Iowa and Minnesota, as well as adjacent parts of the Great Plains, was well behind normal

throughout the month. However, harvest was well ahead of normal in Indiana and Ohio.

Sorghum: Production is forecast at 381 million bushels, down 1 percent from last month and down

26 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the lowest production since 1956. Based on conditions as

of November 1, the sorghum yield forecast is 50.7 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from October and down

9.2 bushels from last year. Kansas expects a yield of 46.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels below last month. 

The yield forecast for Texas is unchanged from last month. The U.S. area for harvest as grain is forecast at

7.53 million acres, unchanged from last month, but down 12 percent from 2001. 

As of November 3, harvest in the top 11 producing States was 70 percent complete, compared to 91 percent

last year and the 5-year average of 87 percent. Harvest is behind schedule in 6 of the 11 producing States as a

result of the low temperatures and wet conditions during October. Across most of the Great Plains, these

adverse conditions hindered ripening of late-maturing fields, which were affected by drought conditions

earlier in the growing season. Harvest progress in Kansas trailed last year by 36 percentage points and is also

31 percentage points behind the 5-year average. In Colorado, Oklahoma, and the middle Mississippi Valley,

harvest was ahead of the 5-year average as of November 3.

Rice: Production is forecast at 212 million cwt, up fractionally from October, but down less than 1 percent

from last year. Harvested acres, at 3.21 million, are unchanged from October, but down 3 percent from 2001. 

As of November 1, the U.S. all rice yield is forecast at a record high 6,611 pounds per acre. This is up

3 pounds from the October forecast and up 182 pounds from the previous record high yield in 2001. Record

high yields are forecast for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas.

Yield expectations increased in Mississippi from 6,400 pounds per acre to 6,600 pounds per acre as harvest

progressed during October. Missouri yield expectations declined 200 pounds per acre to 6,000 pounds per

acre with producers reporting that late planted rice fields were not yielding as well as earlier planted fields.

As of November 3, the U.S. rice harvest was nearly complete in all States but Missouri, where 89 percent of

the crop had been harvested.

Soybeans: Growers expect to harvest 71.8 million acres of soybeans, unchanged from October, but 2 percent

below last year. The November objective yield pod count forecast is the lowest since 1999 for the combined

seven States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio). However, pod counts for

Minnesota are forecasted to be the highest on record. In Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio, pod

counts for October were lower than 2001, while Iowa pod counts were higher than last year.

As of November 3, eighty-seven percent of the crop was harvested in the 18 major producing States. This

compares with 89 percent last year and the 5-year average of 92 percent. Harvest in the western Corn Belt

and Great Plains was delayed the first week of October, but scattered precipitation only briefly delayed

progress for the remainder of the month. Heavy precipitation hindered harvest of soybean fields in the Delta

States, Kentucky, and Tennessee most of the month. On November 3, crop progress ranged from more than 1

to about 3 weeks behind normal. By November 3, harvest approached completion well ahead of normal in

Michigan and near normal in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.51 billion pounds, down 6 percent from last month and down 18 percent

from 2001. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.36 million acres, unchanged from the October estimate, but

down 4 percent from 2001. Yields are expected to average 2,579 pounds, 178 pounds below last month and

down 450 pounds from 2001. Wet field conditions throughout the three peanut producing regions delayed

harvest. The U.S. peanut harvest was 75 percent complete on November 3, eleven percentage points behind

the 5-year average. Harvest conditions and increased disease levels in this year’s crop have reduced yield

expectations.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 35 NASS, USDA

Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total

2.06 billion pounds, down 8 percent from last month and 18 percent below last year. Expected area for

harvest, at 819,500 acres, is unchanged from last month, but up 2 percent from the previous year. Yield in the

four-State area is expected to average 2,512 pounds per acre, 219 pounds below October and 623 pounds

lower than 2001. Alabama’s peanut harvest stood at 84 percent complete on November 3, eight percentage

points behind the 5-year average. Florida’s harvest, at 96 percent complete, was 1 percentage point behind;

and Georgia, at 86 percent complete, lagged behind the 5-year average by 9 percentage points.

The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 348 million pounds, down 7 percent from October and

down 41 percent from 2001. Area for harvest is expected to total 158,000 acres, unchanged from last month,

but down 20 percent from the previous year. Yield is forecast at 2,200 pounds, down 173 pounds from

October and down 794 pounds from last year. North Carolina’s peanut harvest was 77 percent complete on

November 3, four percentage points behind the 5-year average; while Virginia, at 89 percent complete, was

9 points behind the 5-year average.

The Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 1.10 billion

pounds, down 3 percent from October and down 5 percent from 2001. The region’s acreage for harvest, at

383,000 acres, is unchanged from October, but 6 percent below the 2001 level. Yield is forecast to average

2,878 pounds per acre for the region, 94 pounds below last month, but 41 pounds above 2001. Peanut harvest

in Texas stood at 41 percent complete on November 3, twenty-one percentage points behind the 5-year

average. Oklahoma’s harvest was 76 percent complete, 5 percentage points behind of the 5-year average.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 12.6 million acres, is unchanged from the October estimate but

7 percent less than last year. American-Pima harvested area, at 241,400 acres, is unchanged from October

but down 10 percent from 2001 harvest area. Harvest progress is behind the 5-year average.

In the Southeastern States, cotton picking progressed normally during the first week of October, but frequent

rains throughout the rest of the month delayed harvesting. Virginia was the only State with harvest progress

ahead of the 5-year average by month’s end. Alabama’s harvest was delayed the most with progress

23 percentage points behind average by November 3. 

The upland cotton harvest lagged well behind the 5-year average in all of the Delta States by the end of

October. Hurricane Lili hit the Gulf Coast on the 3rd of October, bringing additional rain and wind to many

areas of the region following the heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Isidore the week before. Harvesting

operations were slowed by muddy fields and additional showers throughout the month. Picking resumed in

the interior Delta areas near the middle of October, but was hampered by surplus moisture. As of

November 3, harvest progress was 33 and 34 percentage points behind the 5-year average in Louisiana and

Mississippi, respectively. Objective yield data show large boll counts in Arkansas higher than average with

weights below average. Mississippi’s large boll counts are surpassed only by the 1997 and 1998 counts. The

average weight per boll of the 2002 crop is the highest of the previous 10 years. Louisiana’s large boll counts

are the highest since 1994 and the weights are the highest since 1996. 

Harvest in the Southwestern States was delayed by persistent showers and cooler than normal temperatures. 

New Mexico growers had to deal with above average rainfall for the month. Harvesting progress in

Oklahoma was ahead of the 5-year average at the beginning of October, but rains during the rest of the month

delayed harvest. Percent harvested by the end of the month was 20 percentage points behind average. 

Harvest of the Texas crop has been delayed as well due to untimely rains. This season’s pace is 14 percentage

points behind the 5-year average. Data from the Objective Yield survey show large boll counts in Texas are

the highest of any of the previous 10 years, but the average weight is the fourth lowest of those same years.

Harvest progress of upland cotton in California and Arizona continued with exceptional weather during

October. Warm, dry weather accelerated the pace of picking in California after the first week of the month

and progress rapidly moved ahead of the 5-year average. Data from the Objective Yield survey indicate

California’s count of large bolls ranks the highest of the last 10 years, but the weight per boll is the lowest.

American-Pima production is forecast at 635,000 bales, unchanged from the October forecast but down

9 percent from last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at a record high 1,263 pounds per harvested acre, the same

as last month. If realized, this would be 9 pounds above the previous record established in 2001. California

growers are expecting a record high yield of 1,309 pounds per harvested acre. They began harvesting their

crop in early October and the harvest has progressed well. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 36 NASS, USDA

All cotton ginned totaled 6,685,050 running bales prior to November 1, compared with 8,806,350 running

bales ginned by the same date last year and 9,189,350 running bales ginned in 2000.

Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at 28.0 million tons, 2 percent below the October 1 forecast, but 9 percent

above last year’s production. Acres harvested and to be harvested in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States total

1.36 million acres. This is 1 percent below the October estimate, but 9 percent above 2001, when harvested

acreage was reduced by the government’s payment-in-kind diversion program. The yield is forecast at

20.7 tons per acre, 0.2 ton below October but the same as 2001.

The sugarbeet harvest was aided by mostly dry weather and favorably cold piling temperatures during

October, especially in the Red River Valley. However, a late-month freeze reduced harvested acres in

Minnesota. Cold, dry weather also aided harvest in the central and northern High Plains and Pacific Coast

States. In Idaho, harvest progressed later than normal due to late ripening. In Michigan, harvest was delayed

by warm weather until midmonth. Below-normal temperatures favored beet piling after midmonth and

harvest rapidly accelerated. By November 3, harvest was 94 percent complete in the 4 major

sugarbeet-producing States. Harvest was virtually complete in Minnesota and North Dakota and neared

completion in Michigan. Idaho’s harvest accelerated after midmonth, but remained behind the 5-year average

at the end of October.

Sugarcane: Production is forecast at 35.3 million tons, fractionally below the October forecast but 2 percent

above last year. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 1.02 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2002

crop year. This is unchanged from the previous month but 1 percent lower than last year’s final harvested

acres. Yield is forecast at 34.6 tons per acre, virtually unchanged from the October 1 forecast but 1.0 ton

above last year’s yield.

Wet weather frequently interrupted Louisiana’s harvest during October, and on November 3 harvest was

31 percent complete compared with the 5-year average of 36 percent. Although Louisiana’s harvest

intentions have not been reduced by the wet weather, conditions during the remainder of the harvest season

and the timing of the first hard freeze will be critical in determining final harvested area. Rain also frequently

interrupted harvest in Texas, while harvest progressed with few rain delays in Florida and Hawaii.

Lentils: Production of lentils is forecast at 2.33 million cwt, down 20 percent from last year. Area for

harvest is forecast at 193,000 acres, down 2 percent from the previous year. Average yield is expected to be

1,205 pounds per acre, down 266 pounds per acre from 2001.

Production in Montana, at 121,000 cwt, is down 45 percent from last year. Harvested acres are up 10 percent

from last season, while yields dropped in half to 550 pounds per acre. While there was timely rainfall in late

May and June, extreme heat prevailed in July and August which took a heavy toll on yields. Grasshoppers

also caused reductions in yields. Idaho expects production to be 637,000 cwt, a 20 percent decrease from

2001. Harvested area is down 8 percent from last season, while yield declined by 200 pounds per acre to

1,300. Rainy, wet conditions during late August and early September adversely affected yields. Many fields

were flooded or remained saturated for extended periods. North Dakota’s production, at 517,000 cwt, is

down 14 percent from 2001. Harvested area is up 7 percent from last year, while yield declined by

270 pounds per acre to 1,100. Extreme drought conditions in the southwest and south central districts

reduced yields. Washington’s production, at 1.05 million cwt, is down 18 percent from 2001. Harvested

acres dropped by 6 percent to 75,000, while yield decreased by 200 pounds per acre to 1,400. Washington’s

lentil harvest was completed the first week of September. Below normal moisture reduced yields. However,

the lentil crop quality is reported to be very good.

Dry Edible Peas: Production of dry edible peas is estimated at 4.18 million cwt, up 12 percent from the

revised 2001 estimate. Area for harvest, at 267,700 acres, is 39 percent above a year ago. Average yield is

forecast at 1,561 pounds per acre, down 381 pounds from last season.

North Dakota’s dry edible pea production is forecast at 2.00 million cwt, up 15 percent from last season. 

North Dakota’s harvested acres, at 138,000, increased by 60 percent, while yields are down 570 pounds per

acre from last season. Drought conditions in the southwest and south central districts held the average yield

below historic levels. 

Production in Idaho is expected to be 558,000 cwt, up 21 percent from 2001. Idaho’s harvested acres

increased 35 percent to 31,000. Yield, at 1,800 pounds per acre, decreased 200 pounds from last year. 

Idaho’s dry pea growing area experienced above average rainfall. Excess moisture lowered yields. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 37 NASS, USDA

Production in Montana, at 204,000 cwt, is down 18 percent from the revised 2001 estimate. Harvested acres

in Montana increased by 45 percent to 24,000, while yields decreased by 660 pounds per acre to 850. 

Montana’s yield decline was a result of drought, heat, and a grasshopper infestation. Washington’s

production forecast, at 1.33 million cwt, is 7 percent above last year. Acres for harvest increased 13 percent

from last season, while yield dropped by 100 pounds per acre to 1,900 pounds. Dry pea harvest in

Washington was completed the first week of September. Producers in the principal growing areas

experienced a late spring with frost reported nearly every month during the growing season. Rainfall amounts

were slightly below normal but adequate enough to ensure proper growth and development. Crop quality this

year was very good.

Austrian Winter Peas: Production of Austrian winter peas for Idaho, Montana, and Oregon in 2002 is

estimated at 121,000 cwt, up 25 percent from 2001. Area harvested is forecast at 8,500 acres, up 20 percent

from last year. Average yield is expected to be 1,424 pounds per acre, up 58 pounds per acre from last

season.

The Idaho austrian winter pea production forecast, at 90,000 cwt, is up 32 percent from last year. Oregon’s

production forecast, at 7,000 cwt, is 22 percent below the 2001 crop. Montana’s production forecast of

24,000 cwt is up 20 percent from last year. Drought in the primary pea growing area of Montana forced a

number of growers to graze or cut their fields for hay.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 4.01 million pounds for October, up 31 percent

from last month but 19 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,155 acres, 1 percent below

September and 20 percent less than last October. Harvested area totaled 1,495 acres, down 1 percent from

last month and 22 percent less than October 2001. 

Weather conditions in October were mostly favorable with showers and sunshine over major papaya

producing areas. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards. Favorable growing weather and

strong demand account for the rise in utilized production.

Fall Potatoes: Production of fall potatoes for 2002 is forecast at 415 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year

but 11 percent smaller than the record high 2000 crop. Area harvested, at 1.12 million acres, is up 4 percent

from last year but 6 percent below two years ago. The average yield is forecast at 371 cwt per acre, 4 cwt

above last year. 

Production estimates are generally lower this year in Central and Eastern States but higher in the West. 

Harvest has been completed on schedule in nearly all States. Washington was 95 percent completed by the

end of October. There was some frost damage to fields in Eastern Idaho and in North Central States.

The nine Western States’ production is forecast at 292 million cwt, up 10 percent from last year but

11 percent below 2000. Acreage harvested, at 700,700 acres, gained 9 percent from last year, while the

average yield of 417 cwt per acre is up 6 cwt. California growers responded with record high yields with

adequate irrigation water available in the Tule Lake Basin. Colorado’s production jumped 31 percent as

farmers had sufficient irrigation water to sustain them through the hot summer weather. Idaho’s production

increased 11 percent from last year as potatoes were able to size up at the end of the season. Higher acreage

in Washington pushed production up 6 percent despite lower yields. Production in Nevada and New Mexico

rose 9 and 12 percent, respectively, from a year ago. Production fell 8 percent in Oregon, 3 percent in

Montana, and 29 percent in Utah. 

Eight Central States’ production is forecast at 96.5 million cwt, down 5 percent from last year and 12 percent

below 2000. Harvested area, estimated at 313,000 acres, is down 4 percent, while the average yield of

308 cwt per acre is off 5 cwt from a year ago. Nebraska is the only State in the Central Region with increased

production and that by less than 1 percent. The other 7 States, when compared with last season, lost

production ranging from one-half of 1 percent in Michigan to 49 percent in South Dakota. Spring rains and

flooding reduced production potential in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Indiana

production fell 22 percent from last year, North Dakota was down 11 percent, Wisconsin dropped 4 percent,

Minnesota was off 2 percent, and Ohio output fell 16 percent.

Five Eastern States’ production is forecast at 26.3 million cwt, down less than 1 percent from last year and

7 percent below two years ago. Area for harvest totaled 103,400 acres, 1 percent above last year, but the

average yield fell to 254 cwt per acre, 5 cwt below last season. Maine production is up 3 percent from last
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 38 NASS, USDA

year and Massachusetts is up 8 percent. Production in New York and Pennsylvania each dropped 7 percent

from last year. Rhode Island is off 29 percent. 

All Potatoes: Total U. S. potato production in 2002 from all four seasons is estimated at 460 million cwt, up

5 percent from last year. Harvested area, at 1.27 million acres, gained 4 percent from a year ago. Yields,

averaging 362 cwt per acre, are up 4 cwt from last year.

Wheat: Survey respondents who reported Durum or other spring wheat acreage not yet harvested in Montana

and North Dakota during the surveys conducted to prepare the Small Grains 2002 Summary were

re-contacted to determine how many of these acres were actually harvested and record the actual production

from those acres. 

Based on this updated information, harvested acreage was reduced for both Durum and other spring wheat in

these two States. Durum area declined 5,000 acres in Montana and 50,000 acres in North Dakota. Other

spring wheat harvested area declined 50,000 and 100,000 acres in Montana and North Dakota, respectively. 

The Montana Durum yield increased 1.0 bushel from the previous estimate, while the other spring wheat yield

declined 1.0 bushel. North Dakota yields for both crops were unchanged from the previous estimate. All

wheat production in the United States is 1.62 billion bushels, 17 percent below last year, and less than

1 percent lower than the previous estimate. Because unharvested production is a component of on-farm

stocks, changes were made to the September 1 on-farm stocks levels comparable to the production

adjustments.

Florida Citrus: Florida’s citrus belt had near average rainfall over most areas during October. Groves in the

high sand hills area were irrigated to maintain good tree condition. Most new crop fruit is in good condition. 

Several processors opened this month and are taking in packinghouse eliminations, with a few plants

beginning to take grove run fruit the last week of October. Fresh fruit packinghouses were active shipping

Navels, Hamlins, and Ambersweet oranges, white and colored grapefruit, early tangerines and a few tangelos. 

Fresh shipments for all types of early fruit are ahead of last year. Caretakers have been active cutting cover

crops, fertilizing, spraying herbicides, removing dead trees, and burning grove debris. Some resets are being

planted in larger groves with irrigation systems.

California Citrus: Harvest of the 2001-02 Valencia orange crop continued to wind down with much of the

fruit being sent to processors for juice. New crop harvest of early season Navel orange varieties began in

some areas by the end of October. Lemon harvesting commenced in the Fresno and Sanger districts. Picking

and packing of Minneola tangerines began at the end of October. Chandler variety pummelos were harvested.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers conducted cultural activities that included weed

control, fungicide and insecticide applications, and irrigation. The raisin grape harvest was virtually

complete, with most areas reporting close to 100 percent of the crop in bins or being processed by month's

end. Harvesting of dried on vine raisins continued in most districts. Late variety table grapes were harvested

throughout the month. In many late season table grape vineyards, plastic tarps were in place for protection

against rain damage. Wine and juice grape harvesting continued, but was nearing completion by month's end. 

Stone fruit harvest continued through mid-October. Fall pruning commenced in many harvested stone fruit

orchards. Apple harvest continued. Pomegranates, persimmons, and pears were harvested. Strawberry

harvest was active in the central coast counties. Olive harvest continued throughout the month. Walnuts,

almonds, and pistachios were harvested, windrowed, and hauled to processors. Some harvested almond

orchards were being pushed out.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 39 NASS, USDA

Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective Yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between October 25 and

November 5 to gather information on expected yield as of November 1. The Objective Yield surveys for

corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about

75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The

counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant

counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears,

bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a

projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are

revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has

harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal

interviewers. Approximately 13,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked

questions about probable yield. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide

indications of average yields as the season progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for

reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering

weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical

Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB

uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published November 1 forecasts. 

Revision Policy: The November 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be

made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end

of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings,

feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative

data warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is

strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the November 1 production forecast, the "Root

Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between

the November 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. 

The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root

of the average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can be made

concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming

that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example,

the "Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for grain production forecast is 1.6 percent. This

means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final

estimate by more than 1.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference

will not exceed 2.8 percent.

Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the

November 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the

November 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 84 million bushels, ranging

from 1 million bushels to 258 million bushels. The November 1 forecast has been below the final estimate

8 times and above 12 times. This does not imply that the November 1 corn forecast this year is likely to

understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 40 NASS, USDA

Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Crop Unit

Root Mean

Square Error 20-Year Record of

Differences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Percent

90

Percent

Confidence

Interval

Quantity Years

Average Smallest Largest Below

Final

Above

Final

Million Million Million Number Number

Corn For Grain

Sorghum for Grain

Rice

Soybeans for Beans

Cotton 1

Fall Potatoes

Bu

Bu

Cwt

Bu

Bales

Cwt

1.6

4.6

2.3

2.3

2.9

2.0

2.8

7.9

3.9

3.9

5.1

3.4

84

19

3

35

358

6

1

1

7

14

1

258

105

12

109

937

16

8

9

12

6

12

18

12

11

8

14

8

2

 1 Quantity is in thousands of units.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 2002 41 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops,

 Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on December 10, 2002.

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To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten

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