Cr Pr 2-2 (3-05)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released March 10, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down 3 Percent 

The U.S. all orange March forecast for the 2004-05 season is 9.38 million tons, down 3 percent from the

February 1 forecast and 27 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at

153 million boxes (6.89 million tons), is down 6 percent from last month and 37 percent below the 2003-04

season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 81.0 million boxes (3.65 million tons), down

4 percent from last month and 36 percent below the previous season. The harvest of the early and midseason

varieties is nearly complete. The drop rate, at 18 percent, is above the past ten seasons for the

early-midseason fruit. Florida's Valencia forecast is 72.0 million boxes (3.24 million tons), down 8 percent

from the February forecast and 38 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida’s average Valencia

drop rate is increased from last month to 24 percent. Although not a record for a non-freeze year, it is the

highest drop rate since the 1990-91 season. Valencia fruit size is less than projected last month and is smaller

than nine of the last ten seasons. 

California's all orange forecast is 64.0 million boxes (2.40 million tons), up 6 percent from the January

forecast and 23 percent above last season. Valencia oranges are forecast at 20.0 million boxes (750,000 tons),

up 21 percent from the January forecast and 43 percent above last season's final utilization. Picking of

Valencia oranges is underway in some of the southern growing regions. Overall, sizing appears to be down

from the previous year but a significantly higher fruit set (807 fruit per tree compared to last season’s fruit set

of 392) accounts for the increase in production. Rapid decreases in Valencia acreage continue in most parts

of the State, as growers abandon their groves or replace their Valencia trees with more profitable fruit or

vegetable crops. California conducted an objective measurement survey for the March 1 forecast. The

California navel forecast as well as Arizona and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from

January.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season, at 1.58 gallons per box at

42.0 degrees Brix, is unchanged from last month. The early-midseason portion is increased from 1.52 to

1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion remains at 1.66 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume

that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on March 10, 2005.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

J. B. Penn

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Lemons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangelos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangerines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Crop Summary ........................................................................6

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2003-2004

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

419.0

19.9

450.0

41.7

930.6

19.0

1.4

40.0

1.3

61.7

438.0

21.3

490.0

43.0

992.3

403.0

21.5

430.0

42.7

897.2

17.0

1.6

35.0

1.3

54.9

420.0

23.1

465.0

44.0

952.1

39.3

102.0

26.2

39.7

34.3

40.2

37.3

26.2

40.2

31.1

39.3

97.7

26.2

39.7

34.1

33.8

96.0

24.0

40.0

30.9

37.3

37.0

24.0

38.0

28.8

33.9

91.9

24.0

39.9

30.8

16,467

2,030

11,790

1,655

31,942

764

52

1,048

52

1,916

17,231

2,082

12,838

1,707

33,858

13,621

2,064

10,320

1,708

27,713

634

59

840

49

1,582

14,255

2,123

11,160

1,757

29,295

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the “Crop Production 2004 Summary.”

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2004-2005

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2004 2005

2004 2005 2004 2005

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jan

Feb

2,210

2,200

2,245

2,250

1,340

1,345

1,410

1,410

3,560

2,775

2,540

2,280

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted March 1, 2005 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early, Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

200

42,000

112,000

1,350

155,550

270

20,000

91,000

220

111,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,800

5,500

8,730

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

300

38,000

126,000

1,420

165,720

170

14,000

116,000

230

130,400

470

52,000

242,000

1,650

296,120

1,400

15,900

25,000

140

5,400

40,900

5,700

52,140

690

2,700

6,500

9,890

3,000

18,000

21,000

1,000

240

44,000

81,000

1,500

126,740

190

20,000

72,000

250

92,440

430

64,000

153,000

1,750

219,180

700

3,000

10,000

180

5,300

13,000

6,200

24,680

450

2,900

4,500

7,850

2,400

19,500

21,900

1,500

8

1,575

5,040

57

6,680

10

751

4,095

9

4,865

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

957

4

187

1,646

226

2,063

16

105

261

382

114

912

1,026

105

12

1,426

5,670

60

7,168

6

526

5,220

10

5,762

18

1,952

10,890

70

12,930

63

675

1,063

5

181

1,738

228

2,152

25

101

309

435

114

684

798

45

9

1,650

3,645

64

5,368

7

750

3,240

11

4,008

16

2,400

6,885

75

9,376

32

128

425

6

178

553

248

985

17

109

214

340

91

741

832

68

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. Per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities

of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

4,527.0

80,930.0

4,085.0

710.0

3,347.0

1,380.0

7,486.0

59,674.0

43,350.0

2,561.0

13,763.0

865.0

523.0

73.0

1,430.0

8.7

175.0

75,208.0

1,873.0

13,658.6

13,409.0

249.6

1,346.0

30.5

1,354.3

530.0

345.0

1,194.0

18.7

76.5

59.1

1,039.7

97.4

41,567.0

20.0

4,021.0

73,632.0

6,103.0

61,916.0

21,707.0

40,209.0

1,792.0

595.0

3,325.0

320.0

6,517.0

352.0

49,999.0

34,462.0

2,363.0

13,174.0

828.0

516.0

68.7

1,394.0

7.8

159.0

73,958.0

1,711.0

13,057.0

12,809.0

248.0

1,306.7

952.1

409.1

21.5

1,219.3

507.8

329.0

5.8

0.2

27.7

77.7

1,168.1

18.5

72.2

54.6

1,022.8

15.1

93.3

0.4

19.8

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

“

Ton

“

“

“

Bu

“

Cwt

Bu

“

Ton

Bu

“

“

“

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

“

“

“

Bu

Lb

Bale

“

“

Ton

“

Lb

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lb

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lb

Cwt

Lb

69.4

160.4

17.6

2.55

3.47

2.05

64.7

25.3

6,942

26.9

69.8

13.5

43.2

43.5

38.0

43.2

1,618

20.3

819

3,057

1,394

1,105

42.5

1,197

846

835

1,425

22.9

30.8

2,159

1,228

1,460

2,249

1,271

1,220

40,000

1,990

92

391

260

314

345

401

116

176

235

279,253

11,807,217

107,336

157,774

75,383

82,391

115,935

15,065

230,818

8,615

454,899

4,763

2,158,245

1,499,434

89,893

568,918

1,339,530

8,411.0

10,471

56,290

4,261,700

10,875

175,765

3,140,996

2,047,863

23,006.0

22,270.0

736.0

29,932

29,295

883,171

264

17,799

11,419

4,182

899

7,100

6,000

55,203.9

7,146

456,362

4,818

22,663

18,858

410,023

1,746

16,399

5,200

4,658

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2003 2004 2005

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI) 3

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

“

“

“

“

“

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

“

Lb

Ton

Ton

“

“

Lb

Ton

Lb

Ton

Gal

2,063

1,026

11,545

105

382

59

8,713.1

97.6

22,500.0

6,552.5

118.0

42,600.0

1,259.5

928.1

181.0

16.3

1,040,000

37.9

282,100

326.0

1,260

2,152

798

12,930

45

435

63

10,078.3

100.7

5,972.5

104.0

35,500.0

1,279.1

893.3

49.0

24.9

1,020,000

37.0

181,000

325.0

1,507

985

832

9,376

68

340

32

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2004 2005 2004 2005

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

1,832,030

32,751,560

1,653,160

287,330

1,354,500

558,470

3,029,510

24,149,470

17,543,310

1,036,410

5,569,750

350,060

211,650

29,540

578,710

3,520

70,820

30,435,930

757,980

5,527,500

5,426,490

101,010

544,710

12,340

548,070

214,490

139,620

483,200

7,570

30,960

23,920

420,760

39,420

16,821,750

8,090

1,627,260

29,798,130

2,469,820

25,056,790

8,784,610

16,272,180

725,200

240,790

1,345,590

129,500

2,637,360

142,450

20,234,100

13,946,430

956,280

5,331,390

335,080

208,820

27,800

564,140

3,160

64,350

29,930,060

692,420

5,284,040

5,183,670

100,360

528,810

385,310

165,540

8,700

493,440

205,500

133,140

2,350

60

11,230

31,440

472,720

7,490

29,220

22,100

413,920

6,110

37,760

150

8,010

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2004 2005 2004 2005

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.74

10.06

39.43

5.71

7.78

4.59

2.32

1.42

7.78

1.69

4.38

30.33

2.90

2.93

2.56

2.90

1.81

1.27

0.92

3.43

1.56

1.24

2.86

1.34

0.95

0.94

1.60

51.35

68.97

2.42

1.38

1.64

2.52

1.42

1.37

44.83

2.23

0.10

43.79

29.19

35.18

38.71

44.93

0.13

19.70

26.37

6,080,020

299,917,130

97,373,580

143,130,170

68,386,310

74,743,860

1,682,790

341,670

10,469,730

218,830

11,554,970

4,320,920

58,737,800

40,807,910

2,446,490

15,483,410

607,600

7,630,330

265,980

25,530

1,933,070

4,930

79,730

85,483,900

928,900

5,008,970

4,848,720

160,250

27,153,850

26,575,980

400,600

11,970

807,350

517,960

189,690

40,780

3,220

2,720

25,040

3,240

20,700,230

218,540

1,027,980

855,380

18,598,330

790

743,850

2,360

211,280

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2003 2004 2005

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI) 3

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

95,250

346,540

53,520

3,952,200

88,520

10,210

5,944,360

107,050

19,320

1,142,600

841,910

164,200

14,790

471,740

34,380

127,960

295,740

6,300

1,952,260

723,930

11,729,900

40,820

394,630

57,150

4,571,440

91,380

5,418,160

94,350

16,100

1,160,390

810,350

44,450

22,590

462,660

33,570

82,100

294,840

7,530

893,580

754,780

8,505,760

61,690

308,440

29,030

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2 Production years are 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05. 3 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 12 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 13 NASS, USDA

February Weather Summary

Continuing a winter-long trend, unfavorably dry weather in the Northwest contrasted with excessive

precipitation in southern California and parts of the Southwest. By the end of February, Northwestern

drought-related concerns included diminishing moisture reserves for winter grains, meager high-elevation

snow packs, and poor spring and summer runoff prospects. Meanwhile, Southwestern storminess caused

flash flooding and mudslides but continued to ease or eradicate long-term drought, although some large

reservoirs remained low.

A similar weather pattern prevailed on the Plains, where persistently dry weather across northern areas

contrasted with widespread precipitation from southeastern Nebraska and Kansas southward. On the

drought-affected northern High Plains, winter wheat-related concerns included soil moisture shortages and the

crop’s exposure to occasional temperature and wind extremes. By month’s end, warm weather prompted

winter wheat to begin breaking dormancy as far north as the central Plains.

Farther east, below-normal February precipitation across much of the South promoted late-winter fieldwork

but reduced topsoil moisture for pastures and winter grains. However, a pattern change toward month’s end

produced widespread rain and was especially beneficial across Florida’s peninsula, reducing the threat of

wildfires and easing citrus irrigation demands.

Elsewhere, snow fell frequently during February across the Great Lakes and Northeastern States, while

widespread showers maintained soggy conditions in feedlots and winter wheat fields across the southern and

eastern Corn Belt. However, the upper Midwest continued to experience relatively mild winter conditions,

with above-normal temperatures and generally light snow.

Above-normal temperatures prevailed nearly nationwide during February, with the warmest weather, relative

to normal, affecting the upper Midwest (5 to 10 degrees F above normal). Near-to slightly below-normal

temperatures were confined to the Rio Grande Valley, parts of the West, and areas along and near the Atlantic

Coast.

February Crop Summary

Conditions were very dry in the northern Great Plains, with little or no precipitation during February. Snow

cover in the region remained well below normal and nonexistent in most areas, leaving winter wheat

unprotected from cold weather. Temperatures averaged well above normal but occasionally fell below

0 degrees Fahrenheit, causing concern among growers. In contrast, the central and southern Great Plains had

abundant precipitation, causing continued delays in fieldwork. The cotton harvest in Texas, usually complete

by the end of January, remained incomplete as of February 27.

Moderate precipitation, including occasional snow showers, saturated fields in the southern and eastern Corn

Belt. With frequent repetition of the freeze-thaw cycle, soil heaving remained a problem in the region. 

Elsewhere in the Corn Belt, precipitation was light to moderate, and temperatures were well above normal.

In the Mississippi Delta and Southeast, moderate to heavy precipitation hampered land preparation activities

in some areas. Mild temperatures in most areas promoted growth of winter grains and vegetables. Unlike

most of the region, cool, dry conditions prevailed in Florida. Temperatures dropped below freezing in the

central part of the State but the citrus-growing area avoided freeze damage.

Persistent stormy weather occurred in the Southwest, causing repeated flooding in southern California and

some fieldwork delays in citrus groves and vegetable fields. Farther east, however, the precipitation was

generally beneficial, increasing soil moisture and recharging reservoirs in the southern and central Rocky

Mountains.

Dry conditions prevailed in the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, particularly in the interior

crop-producing areas. Snow cover in the region remained well below normal throughout the month, leaving

most of the winter wheat crop exposed. Temperatures averaged slightly above normal for the month but

dropped to as low as 10 degrees Fahrenheit around midmonth.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 14 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2004 is estimated at 29.3 million tons, unchanged

from last month but 13 percent below 2003. Area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed for the

2004 crop year, at 952,100 acres, is 4 percent less than last year’s harvested area. Yield is forecast at

30.8 tons per acre, the same as February but 3.3 tons below the 2003 crop.

Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. Though harvest was still

ongoing in Florida at month’s end, estimates of acreage, yield, and production are unchanged from February’s

forecast.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.28 million pounds for February, 10 percent lower

than last month and 18 percent less than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,250 acres, virtually unchanged

from last month but 2 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,410 acres, unchanged from last

month but 5 percent higher than February 2004. The weather conditions were variable during February with

a mix of showers and sunny periods. Cooler temperatures and shorter days have slowed crop progress. Soil

moisture in non-irrigated orchards has been irregular but adequate. The erratic precipitation pattern is a

contributing factor to February’s reduced production.

Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 985,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but

54 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast, at 13.0 million boxes

(553,000 tons), is unchanged from February but 68 percent below last season's final utilization. If realized,

this will be the lowest grapefruit utilization since the 1935-36 season. The white grapefruit forecast is

3.00 million boxes (128,000 tons), unchanged from February but 81 percent below last season. The colored

grapefruit forecast, at 10.0 million boxes (425,000 tons), remains unchanged from February 1 but 60 percent

below last season's final utilization. Results of the row count survey conducted on March 1-2, in conjunction

with utilization through that time, is the primary indicator for the March grapefruit forecast. Results of the

size and drop surveys conducted during February indicate projected size is larger and the drop rate is higher

for all grapefruit varieties. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from

February.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast, at 1.50 million boxes (68,000 tons), is up 7 percent from February 1

and 50 percent more than last season’s utilized production. The increase is based primarily on row count data

and estimated utilization.

Tangerines: The 2004-05 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 340,000 tons, unchanged from the previous

forecast but 22 percent below last season's final utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at

4.50 million boxes (214,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 31 percent below last season's

utilization of 6.50 million boxes. Harvest of Florida’s Fallglo tangerines is complete. Sunburst harvest

continues. The Honey variety fruit drop rate during February increased 14 percentage points from 53 percent

to 67 percent. Although not the highest tangerine drop rate on record, this year’s drop rate is higher than nine

of the last ten seasons. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from February.

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast is 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season, unchanged from

February but 50 percent below last season’s final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. Just over 45 percent of the

rows have been picked.

Florida Citrus: Florida’s weather in the citrus areas during February was beneficial with cool nighttime

temperatures and moderate to warm days. Several cold fronts passed through the State with temperatures in

the upper 30's to low 40's on several mornings. Daytime highs reached to the low 80's on several days. There

was no frost reported during the month. Very little rainfall occurred during the first three weeks of February. 

However, a slow moving cold front during the last weekend of the month dropped much needed rain over the

entire citrus producing area. Some coastal areas received over 5 inches of precipitation, while interior areas

generally received over 2 inches. Citrus trees in all areas are in good to excellent condition in spite of the

relatively dry weather of the past several months. New growth was reported about mid-month in some

southern locations and statewide by the end of the month. Some early orange varieties in the southern groves

are showing small amounts of open bloom. Later blooming varieties, like tangerines, are starting to show

buds forming. Upper interior and central area groves are entering the bloom cycle with swelling buds just

beginning to show.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 15 NASS, USDA

Early-midseason weekly harvest is declining as the season nears completion. Navel orange harvest was nearly

complete by the first of the month. Valencia oranges are beginning to be harvested, primarily for fresh

shipments. Grapefruit harvest for fresh shipments increased during the month with harvest for processing

increasing near the end of the month. Early variety tangerine harvest is almost complete and Honey tangerine

harvest is well under way. Tangelo harvest is nearly complete and Temple harvest for processing usage is

heavy. 

California Citrus: Growers were actively applying herbicides and fungicides to citrus groves during

February. However, rain the last half of the month caused delays and cancellations in field work. Harvesting

of navel oranges continued but pack-outs remained low during February due to rind decay, peel miner, and

end splits. Lemon harvesting in the Desert region came to a close but continued in the Central Valley and

South Coastal area. Satsumas and Clementines were harvested in the San Joaquin Valley. Fairchild and

Minneola tangerines and Rio Red grapefruit were harvested from the Desert region.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Warm weather during the first half of February prompted blooming

to start in almond, apricot, peach, plum, cherry, and nectarine orchards across the State. Early variety peach

trees started leafing out. The bloom prompted growers to begin applying blossom sprays to fruit and nut

orchards. Pruning, shredding, and weed removal activities also continued. Blossom thinning to increase fruit

marketability, and to reduce the biennial bearing tendency in some varieties, was also underway in a few plum

orchards. Rain showers late in the month delayed field work for some growers, as they continued to apply

pesticides and prepare open land for new plantings. Bees were placed in almond orchards to aid in

pollination but the rainy weather resulted in unfavorable pollinating conditions. Cultural activities, including

pruning, tying canes, repairing trellis wire, and replacing end posts were completed in many grape vineyards. 

Buds were beginning to swell by month’s end in San Joaquin Valley’s vineyards and bud break was noted in

the Sanger district. Strawberry plants in the San Joaquin Valley continued to progress normally and blueberry

bushes were blooming. Avocado harvest continued but was delayed by the rain.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 16 NASS, USDA

Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees

and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit

droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas

conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also

conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.2 percent. However, if you

exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are

two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by

more than 3.2 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent, or 5.3 percent excluding freeze seasons.

Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

239,000 tons (226,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons (8,000 tons to

713,000 tons, excluding freezes). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times

and above 14 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not

imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2005 17 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 720-7688

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
ACCESS TO REPORTS!!

For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services:

INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go

to the NASS Home Page at: www.usda.gov/nass/. Select “Today’s Reports” or Publications and then Reports Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject.

E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION

All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS

Home Page at www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which

takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and

follow the instructions. 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS

CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)

Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900

(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or

family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). 

USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.