Cr Pr 2-2 (1-07)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released January 12, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Unchanged

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 8.12 million tons, virtually unchanged from the

December forecast but down 9 percent from last season’s final utilization of 8.90 million tons. Florida's all

orange forecast, at 140 million boxes (6.30 million tons), is unchanged from December but down 5 percent

from the 2005-06 hurricane-reduced crop. Most of Florida’s citrus growing areas experienced warmer than

average temperatures during December but also received significant precipitation. Early, midseason, and

navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 75.0 million boxes (3.38 million tons), unchanged from both the

previous forecast and last season’s final utilization. The row count survey conducted December 26-27

indicates that 34 percent of the early-midseason orange rows have been harvested. Beginning with the current

season, Temple oranges are included in this category. Florida’s Valencia forecast is 65.0 million boxes

(2.93 million tons), also unchanged from the October forecast but down 11 percent from last season’s final

utilization. Projections of average fruit size and percent of fruit dropped have increased since last month for

both early-midseason and Valencia oranges. 

The all orange forecast for California, at 46.0 million boxes (1.73 million tons), is unchanged from the

October forecast but down 20 percent from last season’s final utilization. The navel orange forecast is

33.0 million boxes (1.24 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 27 percent lower than the

previous season. California’s Valencia orange forecast is also unchanged from the previous forecast but is

8 percent higher than the 2005-06 season’s utilization. The all orange forecast for Texas, at 1.98 million

boxes (84,000 tons), is up 11 percent from the October forecast and 24 percent higher than last season’s

production. Abundant rain in September and October has helped the crop. The early-midseason orange

forecast is 1.71 million boxes (73,000 tons), up 11 percent from the previous forecast and up 22 percent from

last season. The Texas Valencia orange forecast is 270,000 boxes (11,000 tons), up 13 percent from the

October forecast and 35 percent higher than last season’s utilized production. Arizona’s all orange forecast, at

350,000 boxes (14,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 22 percent lower than the 2005-06

season’s utilized production. Navel orange production is forecast at 200,000 boxes (8,000 tons), unchanged

from the October forecast but down 20 percent from last season. The Valencia forecast, at 150,000 boxes

(6,000 tons), is unchanged from October but 25 percent lower than the previous season.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season is forecast at 1.58 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month’s forecast but down from the 2005-06 season’s yield

of 1.63 gallons. Projected yield from the early-midseason portion is 1.51 gallons, down from 1.53 gallons last

season. Valencias are projected to yield 1.70 gallons, down from 1.75 gallons for the 2005-06 crop. All

projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several

seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on January 12, 2007.

Secretary of

Agriculture

Mike Johanns

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Carol C. House
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Grains & Hay

Hay Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Lemons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangelos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangerines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops

Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Crop Summary ........................................................................7

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 4 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2005-2007

Seasonal

Group

and

State

Area

Yield Production

Planted Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter

 CA

 FL 1

 Total

Spring 2

 AZ

 CA

 FL 1

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

12.0

5.7

17.7

3.9

15.3

23.1

17.0

6.1

17.7

10.7

70.7

11.5

11.5

12.0

5.5

17.5

3.9

15.3

22.6

16.6

6.0

15.5

10.2

67.5

11.5

11.5

260

250

257

300

395

285

285

285

210

280

293

250

250

3,500

1,392

4,892

1,183

6,116

6,527

4,760

1,767

2,850

2,048

18,724

3,120

1,375

4,495

1,170

6,044

6,441

4,731

1,710

3,255

2,856

19,766

2,875

2,875

 1 Winter potatoes combined with spring potatoes in 2007. 2 2006 revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2005-2006

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2005 2006

2005 2006 2005 2006

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Nov

Dec

2,300

2,290

2,140

2,350

1,405

1,780

1,325

1,135

2,020

2,550

2,520

2,220

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted January 1, 2007 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA

 FL 4

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples 4

 FL

Grapefruit

 White

 FL

 Colored

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 5

 CA 5

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

240

44,000

79,100

1,500

124,840

190

20,500

70,700

270

91,660

430

64,500

149,800

1,770

216,500

650

3,400

9,400

140

6,100

12,800

6,600

25,640

400

2,900

4,450

7,750

2,400

20,500

22,900

1,550

250

45,500

75,000

1,400

122,150

200

12,000

72,900

200

85,300

450

57,500

147,900

1,600

207,450

700

6,500

12,800

100

6,000

19,300

5,200

30,600

550

3,600

5,500

9,650

3,800

21,000

24,800

1,400

200

33,000

75,000

1,710

109,910

150

13,000

65,000

270

78,420

350

46,000

140,000

1,980

188,330

9,000

17,000

100

6,000

26,000

6,500

38,600

400

3,800

4,600

8,800

2,800

20,500

23,300

1,100

9

1,650

3,560

64

5,283

7

769

3,182

11

3,969

16

2,419

6,742

75

9,252

29

145

400

5

204

545

264

1,018

15

109

211

335

91

779

870

70

9

1,706

3,375

60

5,150

8

450

3,281

9

3,748

17

2,156

6,656

69

8,898

32

276

544

3

201

820

208

1,232

21

135

261

417

144

798

942

63

8

1,238

3,375

73

4,694

6

488

2,925

11

3,430

14

1,726

6,300

84

8,124

383

723

3

201

1,106

260

1,570

15

143

219

377

106

779

885

50

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90;

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 5 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 6 NASS, USDA

Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,

December 1 and May 1, 2004-2006

State Dec 1 May 1

2004 2005 1 2006 2005 2006 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

1,965

250

3,200

1,770

2,527

73

25

410

1,345

2,782

1,613

1,704

4,368

6,304

4,742

910

189

348

95

1,893

4,127

1,159

8,101

4,427

4,370

741

53

161

545

1,895

1,545

3,923

2,250

5,125

2,366

2,700

12

557

6,939

4,199

10,451

1,383

276

2,716

1,560

1,030

3,532

1,860

114,516

1,575

350

2,000

1,840

2,365

55

18

380

1,350

2,260

1,260

1,498

4,200

5,000

4,390

596

138

390

76

1,852

4,117

1,567

6,315

5,440

4,585

788

53

112

545

1,650

1,245

5,580

2,360

3,900

1,790

1,700

10

565

7,935

3,625

8,000

1,370

257

2,585

1,475

984

3,183

1,876

105,205

1,065

350

2,140

1,675

2,130

65

18

380

878

2,575

1,690

1,475

3,900

4,390

4,550

690

140

452

90

2,385

4,200

1,186

5,415

4,105

3,632

879

60

97

470

1,451

1,280

4,375

2,155

3,275

1,840

3,485

8

468

5,120

3,103

7,550

1,410

273

2,190

1,339

816

3,577

1,600

96,397

356

35

660

215

470

21

5

26

292

535

460

345

1,250

1,735

1,186

128

39

86

17

500

884

199

2,166

860

1,440

80

12

36

164

440

350

917

420

1,385

362

650

2

120

2,100

1,025

2,779

300

71

791

322

212

927

383

27,758

264

40

210

192

460

9

4

60

198

375

324

207

1,000

800

635

81

25

74

17

395

1,150

210

873

1,463

1,070

209

8

8

133

285

282

1,806

363

550

210

410

1

120

2,140

742

896

266

57

730

250

214

1,135

394

21,345

 1 Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

3,452.0

78,327.0

4,168.0

580.0

2,838.0

1,396.0

6,522.0

57,344.0

40,575.0

1,870.0

14,899.0

1,044.0

813.0

40.5

1,243.0

1.4

189.0

75,522.0

1,950.0

15,274.0

14,948.0

326.0

1,366.7

46.0

1,629.8

925.5

429.0

1,134.7

17.7

70.7

58.4

987.9

95.6

44,089.0

11.5

2,951.0

70,648.0

6,477.0

60,807.0

21,384.0

39,423.0

1,576.0

475.0

2,821.0

274.0

4,937.0

347.0

46,810.0

31,117.0

1,815.0

13,878.0

1,021.0

767.0

39.2

1,209.0

1.0

179.0

74,602.0

1,770.0

12,731.5

12,408.0

323.5

1,304.1

908.8

339.0

22.5

1,537.6

884.1

407.0

6.3

0.1

29.4

79.2

1,115.5

17.5

67.5

54.3

976.2

18.5

87.2

0.4

11.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Acreage is not estimated. 4 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 8 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

“

Tons

“

“

“

Bu

“

Cwt

Bu

“

Tons

Bu

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Bu

Lbs

“

“

“

Bu

Lbs

Bales

“

“

Tons

“

Lbs

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

Cwt

Lbs

61.0

149.1

16.2

2.33

3.35

1.78

59.5

21.5

6,868

26.3

56.2

13.4

38.7

41.7

29.5

33.2

1,366

14.4

720

2,874

1,100

1,069

42.7

1,211

819

811

1,122

25.9

32.4

2,144

1,151

1,577

1,493

797

1,160

43,000

1,964

92

390

257

293

340

402

110

189

250

180,051

10,534,868

104,849

141,666

71,666

70,000

93,764

10,195

193,736

7,193

277,538

4,642

1,812,036

1,298,081

53,475

460,480

1,394,332

7,632.0

11,019

28,220

3,474,450

1,100

191,405

3,188,247

2,143,613

21,729.0

20,973.0

756.0

33,765

29,489

726,724

259

24,247

13,203

3,244

590

7,300

4,300

57,686.7

7,248

434,683

4,495

19,766

18,444

391,978

2,038

16,441

4,500

2,875

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 9 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Production

2005 2006 2007

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Tons

“

“

“

“

“

1,000 Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

“

Lbs

Tons

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

Gals

1,018

870

9,252

70

335

29

9,864.9

81.7

20,900.0

7,828.7

142.0

32,900.0

1,184.6

825.3

90.0

9.1

915,000

27.6

280,200

355.0

1,242

1,232

942

8,898

63

417

32

9,842.7

44.5

6,423.0

50.0

1,053.8

835.3

170.0

24.0

1,050,000

41.0

190,400

350.0

1,449

1,570

885

8,124

50

377

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 5

1,396,990

31,698,150

1,686,750

234,720

1,148,510

564,950

2,639,390

23,206,540

16,420,300

756,770

6,029,480

422,500

329,010

16,390

503,030

570

76,490

30,563,000

789,150

6,181,240

6,049,310

131,930

553,090

18,620

659,560

374,540

173,610

459,200

7,160

28,610

23,630

399,790

38,690

17,842,380

4,650

1,194,240

28,590,540

2,621,180

24,607,980

8,653,890

15,954,090

637,790

192,230

1,141,630

110,890

1,997,950

140,430

18,943,540

12,592,740

734,510

5,616,290

413,190

310,400

15,860

489,270

400

72,440

30,190,680

716,300

5,152,310

5,021,390

130,920

527,760

367,780

137,170

9,110

622,250

357,790

164,710

2,550

40

11,880

32,050

451,430

7,080

27,320

21,970

395,060

7,490

35,290

150

4,650

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Acreage is not estimated. 5 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 11 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.28

9.36

36.29

5.22

7.51

3.98

2.13

1.20

7.70

1.65

3.53

29.99

2.60

2.81

1.98

2.23

1.53

0.90

0.81

3.22

1.23

1.20

2.87

1.36

0.92

0.91

1.26

58.04

72.74

2.40

1.29

1.77

1.67

0.89

1.30

48.20

2.20

0.10

43.68

28.79

32.82

38.07

45.01

0.12

21.13

28.02

3,920,150

267,597,970

95,117,410

128,517,230

65,014,300

63,502,930

1,360,980

231,220

8,787,720

182,710

7,049,790

4,211,150

49,315,540

35,327,980

1,455,350

12,532,210

632,460

6,923,630

279,900

12,800

1,575,980

500

86,820

86,769,860

972,330

4,730,930

4,566,330

164,600

30,631,090

26,751,970

329,640

11,750

1,099,830

598,880

147,150

26,760

3,310

1,950

26,170

3,290

19,716,890

203,890

896,570

836,610

17,779,820

920

745,750

2,040

130,410

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 12 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2005 2006 2007

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

923,510

789,250

8,393,270

63,500

303,910

26,310

4,474,640

74,070

9,480

7,102,080

128,820

14,920

1,074,610

748,720

81,650

8,260

415,040

25,040

127,100

322,050

6,210

1,117,650

854,570

8,072,130

57,150

378,300

29,030

4,464,570

40,370

5,826,850

45,360

955,990

757,780

154,220

21,770

476,270

37,190

86,360

317,510

7,240

1,424,280

802,860

7,369,970

45,360

342,010

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 13 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 14 NASS, USDA

December Weather Summary

Four major winter storms left destructive paths across the central and western U.S., due to snow, ice, and

wind. The month opened with a storm underway across the Nation's mid-section. As much as 6 to 18 inches

of snow blanketed areas from Texas' northern panhandle into parts of Michigan, while damaging ice

accumulations were most significant from east-central Missouri into central Illinois. On December 14-15, a

powerful Pacific storm swept into the Northwest, causing extensive wind damage and bearing heavy rain and

snow. Severe storm effects spread inland as far as the northern Rockies, where some high-elevation wind

gusts topped 150 m.p.h. The year ended on an incredibly stormy note from the southern Rockies into the

upper Midwest. On December 20-21, a blizzard engulfed the central High Plains and adjacent Rockies,

curtailing pre-holiday travel and severely stressing livestock. Meanwhile, ice accumulations were particularly

heavy in central Nebraska. Barely a week later (December 28-31), another storm dropped a swath of heavy

snow from New Mexico to North Dakota, again paralyzing travel and causing unspecified livestock losses,

pending further assessment. Ice accumulations from northern Texas into Minnesota triggered widespread

damage and power outages. In sharp contrast, monthly precipitation totaled less than 25 percent of normal in

the Desert Southwest and a small section of the northern Plains.

Following an early-December spell of chilly weather, bitterly cold air receded into Canada and Alaska. 

Nevertheless, cold air trailing the early-month storm brought crop-threatening freezes to southern Louisiana's

sugarcane-producing areas on December 5, 8, and 9. By December 8, above-normal temperatures reached the

northern Plains and upper Midwest and stayed for the remainder of the month. Unusual warmth spread to the

East Coast by December 10 and also persisted through month’s end. As a result, monthly temperatures

averaged 6 to 12 degrees F above normal in most locations from the northern Plains into the Northeast. In

contrast, near-normal monthly temperatures were observed from the central and southern High Plains

westward, except for readings as much as 6 degrees F below normal in some snow-covered Western valleys.

One benefit of the stormy weather was a boost in moisture for the Plains’ winter wheat crop. Snow provided

wheat with insulation, although the early-month cold snap exposed the crop in western portions of South

Dakota and Nebraska to temperatures as low as -10 degrees F. Elsewhere, persistently wet, muddy conditions

were a concern for livestock and winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt and the Northwest. Wet conditions

also developed in the central Gulf Coast region, but showers provided some drought relief in the southern

Atlantic States.

December Agricultural Summary

Temperatures averaged above normal across most of the Nation, with the exception of the Southwest, Great

Basin, and interior areas of the Pacific Northwest. In the northern and central Great Plains, snow cover was

lacking through most of the month, but improved in the final week as snowfall blanketed much of the region,

providing some protection for winter wheat. In southern areas of the Great Plains, cold, wet weather early in

the month delayed final cotton harvest.

Meanwhile, heavy rain fell in the Mississippi Delta, with moderate precipitation in adjacent areas of the

Southeast. In Florida, harvest of sugarcane, citrus, and vegetable crops proceeded smoothly, despite

occasional showers. Temperatures twice dropped below freezing in southern Louisiana, causing some

damage to unharvested sugarcane.

In the Corn Belt, precipitation levels were above normal, causing flooding problems in some areas. The

rainfall and above-normal temperatures prevented accumulation of snow cover, leaving winter wheat

vulnerable to potentially damaging cold weather.

Heavy precipitation fell along the Pacific Coast, from central California through the Pacific Northwest. 

Though beneficial for pastures and emerging winter wheat, the rainfall disrupted citrus harvest at times. 

Meanwhile, frosty mornings helped harden citrus fruits, but frost damage was reported in some areas.

Winter Potatoes: Production for 2007 is forecast at 2.88 million cwt. Florida’s winter potato estimates were

combined with their spring potato estimates for the 2007 crop, which leaves California as the only winter

potato estimating State. California production is expected to be down 8 percent from last year and 18 percent

from 2005. Harvested area in California is forecast at 11,500 acres, down 4 percent from 2006, while the

average yield is expected to be 250 cwt per acre, 10 cwt below last year. Growers reported an average crop,
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 15 NASS, USDA

with yields below last year but similar to 2005. Concerns were raised over a killing frost that occurred after

Thanksgiving, but it appeared to have little effect on the crop.

Spring Potatoes: Production for 2006 is estimated at 19.8 million cwt, down 4 percent from the May forecast

but 6 percent above 2005. Harvested area totaled 67,500 acres, 3 percent below the previous forecast but up

1 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 293 cwt per acre decreased 3 cwt from the May forecast but

increased 12 cwt from 2005.

Spring potato production in Texas increased 39 percent from 2005 and 14 percent in North Carolina. 

Favorable growing conditions in Texas resulted in higher yields than last year. In North Carolina, growing

conditions prior to harvest were the best in recent years, increasing yields from the previous year, but

substantial rain just before harvest drowned out many acres. The spring potato production in Arizona,

California, and Florida all declined 1 percent from 2005. The decreases in Arizona and Florida are due to

fewer acres being harvested. California growers realized a lower yield than last year due to wet spring

conditions.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.22 million pounds for December, down 12 percent

from November and 13 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,350 acres, up 10 percent from last

month and 3 percent above December 2005. Harvested area totaled 1,135 acres in December, down

14 percent from the previous month and 36 percent lower than last year. Conditions in orchards were

generally sunny with intermittent showers and cooler temperatures. Mature trees are reported to have full fruit

columns and to be flowering heavily. Young trees made good progress during the month and some had begun

flowering.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2006-07 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.57 million tons, virtually unchanged from

the December 1 forecast but up 27 percent from last season's final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's

grapefruit production is forecast at 26.0 million boxes (1.11 million tons), unchanged from the December

forecast but 35 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes

(820,000 tons). Excluding the last two hurricane-reduced crops, this is the lowest forecasted Florida

grapefruit production since the 1949-50 season’s 24.2 million boxes. The all white grapefruit forecast is

9.00 million boxes (383,000 tons), unchanged from December but 38 percent above last season’s final

utilization. The overall quality of white grapefruit has been reported as very good. The colored grapefruit

forecast, at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from December but 33 percent above last season's

final utilization. Fruit sizes are projected to be smaller than the average of the last 10 years not affected by

hurricanes. Due to the high quality of the colored grapefruit crop, a large majority of the fruit harvested has

been utilized for fresh market sales.

California’s grapefruit production forecast is 6.00 million boxes (201,000 tons), up 5 percent from the October

forecast but equal to last season’s final utilization. Harvest has begun with good fruit quality reported. 

Pummelo harvest has begun, with strong demand reported. The grapefruit production forecast for Texas is

6.50 million boxes (260,000 tons), down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 25 percent from last

season’s production. Arizona’s grapefruit forecast, at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), is unchanged from both the

October forecast and the 2005-06 season’s final utilization.

Lemons: The forecast for the 2006-07 U.S. lemon crop, at 885,000 tons, is up 4 percent from the October 1

forecast but down 6 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 20.5 million boxes

(779,000 tons), up 4 percent from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from the 2005-06 season. Good

fruit quality has been reported in all growing areas. Arizona's 2006-07 lemon forecast, at 2.80 million boxes

(106,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 26 percent from the previous season. 

Harvest is progressing well with good fruit quality reported.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast remains at 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), unchanged from the

December 1 forecast but down 21 percent from last season’s final utilized production. The row count survey

conducted December 26-27 shows 42 percent of the rows have been harvested.

Tangerines: The 2005-06 U.S. tangerine forecast is 377,000 tons, unchanged from the December forecast

but down 10 percent from last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at

4.60 million boxes (219,000 tons), unchanged from the December forecast but down 16 percent from last

season’s utilization of 5.50 million boxes. The row count survey shows 92 percent of the early variety

tangerine rows have been harvested. Survey measurements for the later maturing Honey variety show
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 16 NASS, USDA

offsetting increases in both fruit size and drop from December. The California tangerine forecast, at

3.80 million boxes (143,000 tons), is unchanged from October but up 6 percent from the previous season. 

Harvest is progressing well but growers have been monitoring groves for freeze damage. Arizona’s forecast is

400,000 boxes (15,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 27 percent below last season’s

utilization.

Florida Citrus: Florida’s citrus producing regions were unseasonably warm during December. Several

heavy rains and thunderstorms resulted in 2 to 3 inches of precipitation in the northern, eastern, and central

citrus producing areas. Less than a quarter of an inch of rain was recorded in the southern growing area. 

Daytime temperatures reached the high 70s to low 80s on several days in all areas while nighttime

temperatures ranged from the 40s to 60s. Gift fruit movement was very active with Sunburst tangerine and

navel orange shipments peaking during mid-December and then tapering off after the Christmas holiday. 

Weekly fresh shipments of both navel oranges and grapefruit reached between 200,000 and 300,000 boxes for

three consecutive weeks. The color and quality of tangerines and grapefruit were reported as excellent all

month. Early-midseason orange processing utilization increased significantly during the month and had

reached a level of 5 million boxes per week by the end of the month. Processing plants began taking field run

Orlando tangelos in the third week of the month. Grove maintenance activities were winding down but

included mowing, irrigation, irrigation repair, and some applications of fertilizer. All but one of the

processing plants slated for operation this season have opened. The final plant should open in January.

Arizona Citrus: Producers indicated citrus groves were in good to excellent condition with good fruit quality

reported. Lemon and navel orange harvests were reported to be about 50 percent complete. Grapefruit and

tangerine harvests have begun.

Texas Citrus: Early and mid-season oranges, as well as grapefruit, were being harvested. Growers generally

reported good quality and size of fruit. Cooler weather in early December was beneficial to both citrus trees

and fruit. Harvest was delayed by rain at the end of September, but year-to-date shipments of oranges have

surpassed last year. Grapefruit shipments are running behind last year’s pace.

California Citrus: Navel orange and lemon harvests were underway in Fresno County. Cooler weather

enhanced orange color and toughened rinds but damage from freezes in November and December is expected

to affect fruit pack-outs in some areas. Tangerine harvest ended for some growers. Owari satsuma and

Clementine tangerine harvests continued. Growers treated groves to control fungus and weeds.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Stone fruit harvest is complete. Cultural practices in stone fruit

orchards during December included irrigation, pruning, application of herbicides, as well as pushing of old

orchards in order to replant. Pomegranate harvest continued at a slower rate. Hachiya and Fuyu persimmon

varieties were harvested. Grape vineyard activities included application of fertilizer, pruning, shredding, and

trellis system repair. At the beginning of the month, some table grape vineyards were covered with plastic to

extend harvest for Red Globe, Autumn Royal, Calmeria, and Crimson Seedless varieties. Pruning of olive

trees continued in Tulare County. Cultural activities in nut orchards included pruning, shredding, irrigation,

application of herbicides, and the pushing of old orchards to replant.

Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 96.4 million tons on December 1, 2006,

down 8 percent from a year ago and the lowest since 1988. Disappearance of hay from May-December 2006

totaled 66.6 million tons, compared to 73.6 million tons for the same period a year ago. 

Compared to December 1, 2005, hay stocks decreased in most of the eastern Rocky Mountains, Great Plains,

and Southeast States. Drier conditions prevailed in many of these States, resulting in lower hay production

and increased supplemental feeding of hay. Meanwhile, stocks increased compared to last year in several

States throughout the Northeast and Intermountain region as a result of favorable growing conditions that

allowed farmers to get multiple cuttings of hay and provided good pasture and grazing conditions.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 17 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of

the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on

administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is

determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are

conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of

production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in

October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for

navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 5.3 percent. However, if you

exclude the 6 abnormal production years (4 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square

Error" is 3.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will

not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.3 percent, or 3.7 percent excluding abnormal

seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.1 percent,

or 6.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

422,000 tons (373,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 106,000 tons to 1.13 million tons

(106,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been

below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal

seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or

overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2007 18 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics

Service to contact for additional information.

Jeff Geuder, Chief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2127

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-5944

Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye ............................................ (202) 720-8068

Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed ................................. (202) 720-9526

Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice ......................................... (202) 720-7688

Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-7369

King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 690-3234

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops ......................... (202) 720-7621

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section

Lance Honig, Head . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco ..................... (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2157

Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-5412

Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4215

Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils,

Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

Wrinkled Seed Peas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-3250

Faye Propsom- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

Plums, Prunes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4285
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Agriculture at the Crossroads: 

Energy, Farm & Rural Policy 

March 1-2, 2007

Crystal Gateway

 Marriott Hotel

Arlington, Virginia

The Forum will feature Secretary Mike Johanns, distinguished

guest speakers, and a panel of America’s leading CEOs

focusing on the impact of bioenergy on agriculture. Attendees

at the 83rd annual Outlook Forum will include top officials,

industry analysts, business leaders, farmers and ranchers, and

other experts in agriculture. 

! $300 if you register by Feb. 5, 2007

! $350 if you register after Feb. 5, 2007 

For a program preview & to register, go to:

www.usda.gov/oce/forum 

! Topical sessions, including luncheon and dinner

speakers

! Networking opportunities, 1,500 expected to attend 

Find full program and registration details at

agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to 2007 Outlook Forum, Room

4426 South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812.