RELIABILITY OF DECEMBER 1 COTTON PRODUCTION FORECAST

The cotton production forecast in this report is based primarily on an
objective yield survey made during the last week in November and reports from
cotton ginners as of December 1. Some adjustments have been made in harvested
acres based on acreage data from ASCS. The objective yield survey provided
small plot observations, counts and measurements based on a _ probability
sample. This survey is subject to sampling and non-sampling type errors that
are common to all surveys. The forecast is also subject to change due to
future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured currently but
directly affect production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 cotton
production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based
on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviations
between the December 1 production forecasts and the final estimates as a
percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared percentage deviations
for the 1965-84 twenty-year period; the square root of this average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be
made concerning the expected differences in the current forecast relative to
the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast
is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
production forecast of 13.8 million bales will not be above or below the final
estimate by more than 1.6 percent or approximately 221 thousand bales,
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will
not exceed 2,8 percent or approximately 387 thousand bales.

Differences between the December 1 forecast and the final estimate during
the past 10 years have averaged 17] thousand bates, ranging from 3 thousand to
399 thousand bales. The December 1 forecast has been below the final estimate
7 times and above 3 times.

COTTON: All cotton production is expected to total 13.8 million bales, down

fractionally from the November J forecast but 6 percent above 1984,
Upland production is forecast at 13.7 million bales. American-Pima production
is forecast at 148 thousand bales. Uptand growers expect to harvest 10.3
million acres (4.15 million hectares), down fractionally from Tast year.
American-Pima area for harvest is estimated at 86.6 thousand acres (35.1
thousand hectares), 9 percent more than 1984,

Texas and Oklahoma uptand production is forecast at 4.46 million bales, 2
percent below November 1 and 15 percent above 1984. Harvest in Texas has
moved ahead at a fast pace as weather permitted and was 55 percent complete by
December 1. In Oklahoma, harvest was getting back to full swing after a long,
foggy, wet period. By month's end, harvest was 45 percent complete.

Production in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
and Tennessee) is forecast at 3.74 million bales, fractionlly below the
forecast on November 1, and 3 percent below last year. Area for harvest is
forecast at 2.60 million acres (1.05 million hectares). Harvest was 97
percent complete in Arkansas, Louisiana 99 percent, Mississippi 97 percent,
Missouri 94 percent, and Tennessee 90 percent complete as of December 1.

Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) expect an upland
production of 4.28 million bales, up 2 percent from November 1 and 4 percent
above 1984, In Arizona, picking was slowed by storms moving across the State
during the last two weeks of the month. By December 1, 80 percent of the
acreage had been picked at least once. In California, harvest suffered from
wet weather at the end of the month. As of December 1, harvest was getting
underway in Imperial Valley and was 92 percent complete statewide.

Production in the Southeastern States is forecast at 1.16 million bales,
down 3 percent from November 1, but up 13 percent from last year. Area for
harvest is estimated at 792 thousand acres (321 thousand hectares), down 5
thousand acres from November 1 but 113 thousand acres above 1984. Wet weather
early in the month, caused poor harvesting conditions, and then damage from
hurricane Kate Tate in the month resulted in lower production prospects in
Georgia and South Carolina.

The Bureau of the Census reports 10,133,900 running bales ginned prior to

December 1, 1985 compared with 8,972,412 bales ginned to the same date in 1984
and 6,002,973 bales in 1983,

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF ALL WHEAT, BY STATES, 1983-84 AND 1984-85
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE AND
MARKETING
YEAR

ARIZ 1983-84 119 37 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1
1984-85 : 30 33. «10 1 1 4 10 7 5 i 1 3
ARK 1983-84 : 5928 4 1 } 1 1 1 1 1 1
1984-85 : 7 «17 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
CALIF 1983-84 : 10 392 5 3 5 4 6 6 3 4 3
1984-85 : 10 36018 6 2 3 3 3 5 6 5 3
colo 1983-84 : 1816 8 5 6 oon 8 7 9 6 4 2
1984-85 : 19 «16 («12 9 8 6 10 7 4 4 203
IDAHO 1983-84 : 2 7 4 13 13 9 8 6 5 9 7 7
1984-85 : a7 7 9 8 10 7 5 3 3003
TLL 1983-84 : 2 87 8 4 1 2 3 6 4 7 4 2
1984-85 : 4 55 7 7 2 1 2 5 1 3 1 2
IND 1983-84 : 73 9 6 1 1 2 2 2 1 ] 1 4
1984-85 : 72 6 3. 10 1 1 2 1 1 1
KANS 1983-84 : 5 Nu 16 8 5 8 10 8 8 10 6 5
1984-85 : 6 2 18 8 6 5 4 9 4 4 4 3
MICH 1983-84 : 360031 5 3 2 6 6 4 3 2 14
1984-85 : 4426 6 4 2 4 5 2 2 2 1 2
MINN 1983-84 : 8 20 VW 10 7 7 8 5 7 6 7 4
1984-85 : 7 18 10 6 6 6 5 ? 8 10 8 9
MO 1983-84 : 4 3348 3 1 2 2 1 2 2 1
1984-85 : jo «5118 6 3 2 2 2 1 7 2 2
MONT - 1983-84 : 5 15 10 9 9 6 10 8 8 10 7 3
1984-85 : 5 12 oN 9 6 8 9 7 7 8 10 8
NEBR 1983-84 : 219 7 4 5 10 8 4 10 6 303
1984-85 : 2828 8 5 10 8 3 2 2 2
N DAK 1983-84 : 7 2 13 7 8 7 6 6 7 6 48
1984-85 : 5 22 11 9 10 5 5 7 6 6 6 8
OHIO =: 1983-84 : 6213 4 1 2 3 4 2 4 3 7 4
1984-85 : 584 7 3 2 2 5 3 2 2 14
OKLA 1983-84 : 3 10 12 12 7 4 10 14 10 7 8 3
1984-85 : 2 20 2002=«O«7 7 4 2 4 7 4 9 4
OREG = -1983-84 : 30 12 1 1 WW wm 11 9 8 8 5 4
1984-85 : 30 20 183 7 6 12 6 6 5 2 2
S DAK 1983-84 : W 22 9 7 5 8 8 7 6 6 5 6
: 1984-85 : 7 29 9 7 6 5 5 5 7 8 6 6
TEX 1983-84 : 8 4118 5 3 4 4 4 6 2 3 2
1984-85 : 18 3230 5 3 2 2 1 4 1 1 1
WASH 1983-84 : 2 18 417 10 9 10 10 6 5 5 9 2
1984-85 : 30 18 18 14 8 5 om 6 4 5 4 4
us 1983-84 1.1 7.4 16.0 15.4 8.5 5.8 6.8 7.9 7.4 5.7 6.7 5.2 3.9 2.2
1984-85 117 815 20:8 16:8 9:1 6:8 5.2 413° 710 417 al? 4l3 313 le

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX

PAGE

BEANS, DRY EDIBLE ..cceeccescccscececercncscccccecsctcscesccccsscsesses An 7

BEANS, BY CLASSES ....eceecceccereccveccceceee eecosececes sececccceceeee Ae 8

CITRUS FRUIT ..

COTTON .ccevecccecccccceccccccttnsscsctcccesssssscscscseesscscssscess An A
COTTONSEED 2. .ccceeeceecnecectcrcccecnccerece st eeeeeeeeeeeceesereceseee An 4
CROP MARKETING SEASONS ......-seeccscececcecscecescesecesceseeseseeees AHO
FARM MARKETINGS ..ccccececscecccsecccsccncssscrssceccsacsssssessesesess An YG

PAPAYAS ..cccccccccccvcceccvcnsecusscencncscecsoncstsssnscsesesssessses An 6

PECANS .ccccccccececccencrcccrcetscsssecncccsenesseccssssesssesececeses An 6

RELIABILITY STATEMENT 2. ccceecsccceccrcececectccccetcrcscececesererece Bo 2

TOBACCO, BURLEY ....

US SUMMARY ..cccccccccccncevcsccncnccssncccccscecsccescccsevesssseness An 2

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 B-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT 1/

PRODUCTION
TON EQUIVALENT

1,000 UNITS

ORANGES, EARLY MID:
& NAVEL /:
ARIZ : 550 650 600 21 25 23
CALIF : 33,700 26,000 30,000 1,264 975 1,125
FLA : 69,700 55,000 71,000 3,136 2,475 3,195
TEX al: 2,400 0 250 102 0 if
: 106,350 81,650 101,850 4,525 3,475 4,354
ORANGES, VALENCIA
ARIZ : 1,250 1,800 1,900 47 68 11
CALIF : 14,800 26,000 19,000 556 975 713
FLA : 47,000 48,900 61,000 2,115 2,201 2,745
TEX 4/s 110 0 200 5 0 9
us : 63,160 76,700 82,100 2,723 3,244 3,538
ALL ORANGES. 2
ARIZ : 1,800 2,450 2,500 68 93 94
CALIF : 48,500 52,000 49,000 1,820 1,950 1,838
FLA : 116,700 103,900 132,000 5,251 76 5,940
TEX ats 2,510 0 450 107 ° 20
us : 169,510 158,350 183,950 7,246 6,719 7,892
TEMPLES :
FLA : 2,900 3,250 3,500 130 146 158
GRAPEFRUIT,WHITE =:
SEEDLESS
: 23,000 24,800 25,000 978 1,054 1,063
GRAPEFRUIT, PINK =:
SEEDLESS :
FLA : 13,400 16,300 = 16,000 569 693 680
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
FLA 4,500 2,900 3,000 191 123 128
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
ARIZ : 2,270 3,700 2,900 72 118 93
CALIF 5/:
DESERT : 3,340 3,900 3,800 107 124 122
OTHER AREAS : 3,900 4,000 131 134
TOTAL : 7,240 7,900 238 258
FLA : 40,900 44,000 44,000 1,738 1,871 1,871
TEX 4/: 3,200 0 500 128 ° 20
us : 53,610 55,600 2,176 2,246
TANGERINES :
ARIZ : 1,150 700 700 43 26 26
CALIF 8 1,850 1,680 1,800 70 63 68
FLA : 2,000 1,050 1,100 95 50 52
us : 5,000 3,430 3,600 208 139 146
LEMONS :
ARIZ 3 4,000 6,000 3,500 152 228 133
CALIF : 17,250 19,800 17,900 655 752 680
us : 21,250 25,800 21,400 807 980 ais
TANGELOS :
FLA 3,600 3,600 3,200 162 162 144

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST 1S COMPLETED.

2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ-75,FLA-90,
TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF
OTHER-67, FLA-85, TEX-80; LEMONS~76; TANGELOS &
TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES- CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95.

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA. EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEXAS.

4/ DUE TO THE SEVERE FREEZE OF DECEMBER 1983 NO
COMMERCIAL SUPPLIES WERE HARVESTED FOR THE 1984-85
TEXAS CITRUS CROPS.

5/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT “OTHER AREAS"
WILL BE AS OF APR 1.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-5. CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


COTTONSEED: Production, based on a three year average lint-seed ratio, is

forecast at 5.48 million tons (4.98 million metric tons), 7
percent above the 1984 production of 5.15 million tons ( 4.67 million metric
ons).

BURLEY TOBACCO: Production of burley tobacco is forecast at 616 million pounds

(279 thousand metric tons), 14 percent below 1984. Production
is down in all States, except Missouri. Yield per acre is expected to average
2319 pounds, 63 pounds more than last year.

Stripping activities are on schedule in Tennessee and slightly advanced in
Kentucky. The Burley markets opened November 25 compared with last year's
November 19 date.

DRY EDIBLE BEANS: U.S. production of dry edible beans totaled 22.3 million

cwt (1.01 million metric tons) in 1985, up 6 percent from
the previous year and 44 percent above 1983. The average yield, at 1499
pounds per acre, rose 56 pounds (4 percent) from 1984 and is 136 pounds above
1983. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.49 million acres (602 thousand
hectares), a gain of -2 percent from last year and 31 percent above two years
ago.

Production, by class, shows the following percentage increases from last
year: Navy, 28; Pinto, 4; Kidney, 8 percent. Black turtle soup was more than
double last year's production. Decreases were shown in: Great Northern, 36
percent; Small White, 21; Pink, 6; and Blackeye, 17 percent.

Michigan production, at 5.41 million cwt, rose 26 percent from 1984.
Heavy rains in late August and early September flooded considerable acreage
and delayed early harvest. Later yields, however, turned out better than
expected, bringing the final yield back up above the level of two years ago.

California dry bean production totaled 3.51 million cwt, up 9 percent from
1984, Acreage for harvest was down 8 percent, but dry fall weather aided
harvest and contributed to record-setting yields, The Colorado dry bean crop
developed ahead of normal on its way to a production of 2.95 million cwt, up
23 percent from last year. Acreage and yield were both up from 1984.

Nebraska production totaled 2.70 million cwt, 16 percent short of last
year. Harvest was wet and late, with snow covering much of. the late acreage.
North Dakota growers also had trouble getting their crop in, but a sharply
higher acreage placed production up 19 percent from last year.

PECANS: The final production forecast for the U.S. pecan crop is 236 million

pounds (107 thousand metric tons), in-shell basis, down 10 percent
from October 1, 2 percent above the 1984 crop, but 12 percent less than the
1983 crop. Forecasts have been reduced from October 1 in nearly all States,
due to adverse weather conditions. Southeastern States, as well as Oklahoma
and Texas, report losses in yields and quality due to winds and persistent
rains, High moisture conditions have hampered harvest and resulted in disease
and spoilage of pecans on the ground and nuts that are still on the trees.
The Georgia forecast is now 95.0 million pounds, 10 percent lower than
October 1, and 21 percent below last year’s crop. The forecast for Alabama is
18.0 million pounds, off 2.00 million pounds from the previous forecast.
Loufsiana, at 17.0 million pounds, and New Mexico, at 26.0 million pounds, are
both unchanged from October 1. The forecast is now 10.0 million pounds for
Oklahoma and 58.0 million pounds for Texas.

PAPAYAS: Hawaii fresh papaya production is forecast at 2.80 million pounds

(1270 metric tons) for December. Output is anticipated to rise to
4.00 million pounds (1810 metric tons) in January and increase further to 4.30
million pounds (1950 metric tons) for February, as well as March. Fresh
Papaya utilization is estimated at 3.85 million pounds (1740 metric tons)
during November, a 7 percent decrease from October and 36 percent below last
year.

Crop area totaled 3615 acres (1460 hectares) during November, a 3 percent
increase from the previous month, but 6 percent less than a year ago.
Harvested area, totaling 2450 acres (990 hectares), rose 1 percent from
October.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA





TANGELOS: The Florida crop, excluding K-early citrus fruit, is forecast at

3.20 million boxes (131 thousand metric tons), unchanged from the
October 1 forecast but 11 percent less than the 1984-1985 crop. Harvest is 22
percent complete,

TEMPLES: The Florida temple forecast is 3.50 million boxes (143 thousand
metric tons), unchanged from the October 1 forecast but 8 percent
more than last season. Harvest has mot yet begun.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Most of Florida's commercial citrus groves are in good condi-

tion. November has been drier than normal in most of the
citrus belt. Growers and caretakers have been running irrigation equipment to
help prevent wilt and fruit softening. The majority of early oranges have
good color break and are starting to be picked in increasing quantities.
Also, the lower than normal acid levels have resulted in many processing
plants starting a week or two earlier than usual. Movement of grapefruit
during November was active for both fresh and processed usage. Robinson
tangerine harvest slowed considerably by the Tast of November as supplies were
running low. Picking of Dancy tangerines and Orlando tangelos is increasing
with very good fresh market demand. Caretakers have been active wrapping and
soil banking young trees for the winter season, Most groves have been clean
cultivated for winter protection.

ee ee es

PROGRAM MODIFICATION

The Statistical Reporting Service is proposing to discontinue publishing
Pasture and Range Condition maps, Feed Crop Prospects maps, and Pasture and
Range Condition data in the Crop Production reports. These data series have
decreased in importance over the years and have become increasingly difficult
to defend statistically. The pasture and crops maps will be replaced by the
crop moisture map prepared by the NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather
Facility. The new map will provide a more accurate description of some of the
conditions that affect pastures and crops. Resources saved by this change
will be redirected toward maintaining timely and reliable data series
important in monitoring changes in the agricultural sector. If this change is
adopted, it will become effective with the April 1986 Crop Production report.
Comments from data users regarding the proposed changes are invited and should
be sent to Chief, Crops Branch, USDA/SRS, Washington, D.C. 20250, by
January 15, 1986.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



FARM MARKETINGS OF DRY EDIBLE BEANS, BY STATES, 1983-84 AND 1984-85
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS
STATE _AND
MARKETING
YEAR

PERCENT

CALIF 1983-84 : 6 10 13° 11 9 8 8 W 8 6 6 5
Fr Or Sr | rr

coo (1988-84 190 «138i CGC KCC lOO
or |

IANO «1983-88 «6: 11)0=«2siB (ae
1984-85 2:07 iW 7 7 7 4 6 14 8 7 5 7

MICH 1983-84 :16 23 1 7 +6 7 4 4 4 6 6 7
yee 16 OBC GSKB 7 3

MINN 1983-84 :29°0«1900Oo1 7 3 8 2 4 8 9 3 4
q988-85 244 BT 8 4 2 2 2 3 2

NEBR 1983-84: 2200«13—ssiiaB 3 3 8 6 3 8
18-85: 250COS tC GOGO a

NY 1983-88 =: 4 14 WW 6 6 WW 8 2 6 3 4 6
jost-85 4 O12 CUtCiCti(i CK BCS

NDA 1983-84 :19 1 1 4 #4 #7 #7 6 W 8B 3 4
joaess 3320C~<C«“(Ci(‘S*‘~*CT HCG

WASH 1983-84 «6: 110«13—'i‘iw®sti Asi iti Bi KC a
1984-85 =: 18 24 WW 5 7 #7 +6 8 4 4 5 2

WYO 1983-84: 17,1186 6 5 10 4 9 0 3
194-85: 152i CB OB

US 1983-84 :15.5 15.2 10.3 6.9 68 7.9 5.3 58 7.0 6.5 5.3 7.5
1984-85 ©: 16.3 13:0 10:1 8.3 8.5 5.7 5.9 7.5 6.7 8.1 5.7 422

FARM MARKETINGS OF SUNFLOWER, BY STATES, 1983-84 AND 1984-85
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE AND

MARKETING ©: : OCT FEB: MAR MAY : JUN: JUL: AUG
YEAR :
PERCENT
MINN 1983-84 : 8 34 15 ahi 4 an) 6 9 1 1
yed-85 so} OB 2°85 7 5 7 8 3 2
NDAK 1983-84 : 5 49 20 10 6 3 46 2 2 1 1
1984-85: 439 9 6 3 5 8 6 7 2 1
S DAK 1983-84 =: 2 2 13 7 3% 2 2 4 8
1984-85: 2 oh 6 2 4 7 4 6 7 1
US 1983-84: 18.5 0. 3403 8
1984-85 37 5

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP MARKETING SEASONS OF SPECIFIED FIELD CROPS

BARLEY:

CORN FOR GRAIN:

DRY EDIBLE BEANS:

FLAXSEED:

HAY:

OATS:

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN:

SOYBEANS:

SUNFLOWER:

WHEAT:

May 1 to April 30 for Arizona; June to May 31 for
Californias July 1 to June 30 for all other estimated
States,

August 1 to July 31 for Georgia and Texas; September 1 to
August 31 for Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and North
Carolina; October 1 to September 30 for all other
estimated States.

September 1 to August 31 for all estimated States.
July 1 to June 30 for all estimated States.

April 1 to March 31 for Arizona; May 1 to April 30 for
Arkansas, California, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky,
Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah;
June 1 to May 31 for all other estimated States.

May 1 to April 30 for Texas; June 1 to May 31 for
Arkansas, California, and North Carolina; July 1 to June
30 for all other estimated States.

June 1 to May 31 for Texas; July 1 to June 30 for
Arizona; August 1 to July 31. for Oklahoma; September 1 to
August 31 for Catifornia, Kansas, Missouri, and New
Mexico; October 1 to September 30 for all other estimated
States,

September 1,to August 31 for all estimated States.

September 1 to August 31 for Minnesota, North Dakota and
South Dakota.

May 1 to April 30 for Arizona, California, Oklahoma and
Texas; June 1 to May 31 for Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas,
and Missouri; July 1 to June 30 for all other estimated
States.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


AREA PLANTED, DRY EDIBLE BEANS

STATE : 1984 1/ 1985

1,000 ACRES 1,000 ACRES

CALIF : 198.0 180.0 175.0 160.0
colo t 19510 225.0 32:0 35.0
TDAHO : 140.0 120.0 205.0 260.0
KANS, : 13.0 17.0 9.5 8.5
MICH : 400.0 440.0 35.0 34.0
MINN : 52.0 68.0 38.0 29.0
MONT : 815 3.4
: 1,501.0 1,579.9
1/ REVISED.
AREA PLANTED, DRY EDIBLE LIMA BEANS

CROP AND STATE : 1984 1/ : 1985
a a comeemmeeenss"""75000 ACRES ss—s=—“‘=‘~*~*~*~*~S~TMS
LARGE LIMA-CALIF : 37.0 46.0
BABY LIMA-CALIF : 29.0 27.0

ORY EDIBLE BEANS /

PRODUCTION

CROP ret w nnn nn nner ee enn n nen nnn n nnn nee
AND 2/-: IND
STATE 1984: 1985

: : 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 CWT
LARGE LIMA:
CALIF : 36.0 45.0 1,800 2,130 463 648 959
BABY LIMA $
CALIF : 28.0 26.0 1,950 2,460 472 546 640
OTHER :
A CALIF : 127.0 104.0 1,590 1,840 1,477 2,024 1,914
LL :
CALIF : 191.0 175.0 1,685 2,007 2,412 3,218 3,513
coLo : 190.0 220.0 1,260 1,340 1,680 2,394 2,948
'DAHO : 138.0 118.0 1,790 1,700 1,452 2,470 2,006
KANS : 12.0 16.0 1,700 1,700 126 204 272
MICH : 390.0 410.0 1,100 1,320 4,550 4,290 5,412
MINN : 50.0 62.0 1,400 1,400 452 700 868
MONT : 8.0 3.0 1,900 1,900 37 152 57
NEBR : 170.0 146.0 1,900 1,850 2,188 3,230 2,701
NY : 31.0 33.0 1,200 900 255 372 297
N DAK 3 200.0 237.0 1,260 1,270 1,648 2,520 3,010
UTAH : 9.3 8.4 580 480 at 54 40
WASH : 34.0 33.0 2,080 2,150 355 707 710
wro : 37.0 27.0 2,050 1,780 324 759 481
Us : 1,460.3 1,488.4 1,443 1,499 15,520 21,070 22,315

1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED. 2/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PECANS

CROP AND STATE

IMPROVED 1/
ALA 17,000
ARK 1,750
FLA 1,500
GA 85,000
LA 3,000
Miss 5,500
N MEX 29,000
NC 2 500
OKLA 1,000
sc 1,000
TEX 22,000
Us 167,250

NATIVE & SEEDLING
ALA 7,000
ARK 750
FLA 1,900
GA 15,000
LA 19,000
Miss 2,500
Nc 2/ 1,100
OKLA 7,000
sc 500
TEX 48,000
Us 102,750

ALL
ALA 24,000
ARK 2,500
FLA 3,400
GA 100,000
LA 22,000
Miss 8,000
N MEX 29,000
nc 2/ : 1,600
OKLA : 8,000
sc 1,500
TEX 70,000
us : 270,000

1000

PRODUCTION

9,000
1,100
2,200

100,000
1,500
4,000

24,000
1,830
2,000
3,600

20,000

169,230

4,000
400
2,800
20,000
3,500
1,500
1,070
23,000
1,900
5,000
63,170

13,000
1,500
5,000
120,000
5,000
5,500
24,000
2,900
25,000
5,500
25,000

232,400

POUNDS

14,400
1,000
1,900

85,000
3,000
4,500

26,000

400
1,000

> “900
15,000
153,100

3,600
700
900

10,000
14,000

1,500
200

9,000
300

43,000
83,200

18,000
1,700
2,800

95,000

17,000
6,000

26,000

600

10,000
1,200

58,000

236,300

1/ BUDDED, GRAFTED, OR TOPWORKED VARIETIES.

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PAPAYAS - HAWALT

HARVESTED

2,635 2,430
2,725 2,450
2,765
2,950
2,820

CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-NOV

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-6

1985 : FORECAST
2 1985-86
1,000 POUNDS
4,125
3,845
2,800
3,700 4,000
4,000 45300



NOVEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

A cold outbreak early in the month was preceded by snowfall which covered
most of the important grain areas of the Nation. A second outbreak pushed
deep into the West and covered the general area west of a line from New Mexico
to central Texas and to Michigan. Freezing temperatures reached into much of
California's crop areas, Precipitation fell in all of the Nation.
Precipitation was above normal in most areas but some areas, such as
southwestern Texas and New Mexico, parts of the Mississippi Delta and the
Tennessee Valley, and parts of florida, measured well below normal amounts.
An unusual late season hurricane developed northeast of Cuba, and was named
Kate. Kate wreaked havoc along Cuba’s northern coast, and then made landfall
in the Panhandle of Florida and brought high winds, tornadoes, and deluges of
rain to northern Florida and southern Georgia. The remnants of the storm
triggered heavy rain northward to southern Pennsylvania. (Prepared by the
Joint USDA/NOAA Agricultural Weather Facility.)

ROW CROP HARVEST

Cold wintery weather, rain and earlier-than-normal snowfall in November
prolonged fall row crop harvest. Ory weather aided crop harvest through the
Great Plains, aross the Corn Belt and in parts af the Southeast the first week
of November. Harvest delays were common the rest of November. Crop
harvesting progress for most crops began the month behind schedule and
remained behind schedule during the entire month. In some areas, crops may
not be harvested until next spring because of the early snow accumulations.

Corn harvest began the month 13 points behind norma? and was 10 points
behind normal as the month ended. On December 1, corn was 87 percent
harvested. Harvest ranged from finished in Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas
to as much as 30 points slower than normal in South Dakota. In Michigan,
harvest reached 75 percent completion on December 1, compared with 97 percent
normally. Corn harvest in Wisconsin ended the month 20 points below average.

In the 19 major producing States, soybeans were 87 percent combined on
December 1, compared with 91 percent last year and the 95 percent average,
Harvest ended the month behind normal in all States except Minnesota and South
Dakota. Harvest was nearing completion in the northern Great Plains and
portions of the Corn Belt by month's end but trailed considerably behind
schedule in the Southeast. Slightly more than one-third of North Carolina's
soybeans were harvested, 35 points slower than normal. In Georgia and South
Carolina, soybean harvest was 22 and 24 points behind normal, respectively.
Missouri's soybean harvest, at 65 percent completion, ended’ the month 30
points behind normal.

Sorghum harvest approached completion on Oecember 1 with the crop 94
percent harvested, Normally 98 percent would be harvested by this time.
Harvest was ahead or slightly behind normal in all States except Missouri,
which was 16 points behind normal.

In the 14 major producing States, 73 percent of the cotton acreage was
picked by the end of November. Cotton harvest slowed during the month going
from 1 point behind normal on November 3 to 4 points behind normal
December 1. In the Southeast rain slowed harvest throughout most of
November, As the month ended, harvest was ahead of or equaled normal in al}
States except California, Georgia, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, South
Carolina, and Texas. Cotton harvest was 24 points slower than normal in New
Mexico and 11 points below average in North Carolina.

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

Despite rain delays, wheat seeding was virtually completed during November
except in the Southeast and Southwest. Emergence was 90 percent complete,
compared with 93 percent normally on December 1. Some of the late planted
wheat may not emerge until next spring in the northern producing States.
Winter wheat planting was 56 percent completed in Georgia on December 1, 24
points below the average. Wheat seedings were 55 percent finished in
California, just slightly ahead of normal as the month ended. Unusually low
temperatures and snow covered the northern Plains and northern Rockies much
earlier than normal. Ample snow cover protected wheat from the low
temperatures during the month. By month's end wheat growth was virtually
stopped from the central Plains northward and in the Pacific Northwest.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 B-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



100.0
100.9
100.0

FLAXSEED
PEANUTS
COTTON

SUNFLOWER

100.0
100.0

100.0

ezneoasnen nace
HAtgdanéksvswd

100.0
100.0
100.0

PERCENT
BARLEY
WHEAT
cORN

DRY EDIBLE BEANS

NEQEeneenens ace
Non iddvdsiesd

tee noanennaan

HR SSG ERN GGUS

CROP MARKETING YEAR
100.0
100.0
100.0

PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

wHMeamaQeoannns
SSrdkkrRannea

QEORAAMReTNOANTY
sabdcanddeninnH

100.0
100.0
100.0

2
=
S

HAY
SORGHUM

FARM MARKETING OF FIELD CROPS, UNITED STATES, 1983-84 1/ AND 1984-85
SOYBEANS

weaerqeneonsean weQwcnweanyyongaen

100.0
100.0
100.0

YEAR
YEAR
YEAR

men auncns

Scouunwoine

16.3

WNAUMADAMDOWMIN

100.0 100.0 100.0 190.0
CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA

A-9

100.0

3
s
2

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985

1/ REVISED.

YEAR


ORDER FORM
USDA CROP REPORTING BOARD PUBLICATIONS

(Publications available only from Crop Reporting Board)
Subscription Fee

March 1985

Subscription Fee

\ estic Foreign Issued Domestic Foreign
FIELD CROP SERIES sued Dom "POULTRY SERIES 8
OD Hop Stocks Mar. & Sept. $250 $3.50 0 Turkey Hatchery Monthly = $18.00 $24.00
FAUIT & VEGETABLE SERIES PRICES & EXPENDITURES
SERIES
© Cherry Production June 125 00(1.75
O Cherry Utilization October 1.25 175 O Agricultural Prices
O Citrus Fruits September 1.50 2.00 Annual June 5.00 6.25
Cranberries ‘August 1.25 1.75 © Crop Values January 2.00 2.50
OQ Farm Production
LIVESTOCK SERIES Expenditures June & July 5.00 6.25
O Minnesota-Wisconsin
OD Meat Animais Production, Milk Prices June 1.25 1.75
Olsposition, & income Aprii 150-200
© Sheep & Goats January 125 1.75 OTHER CROPS
O Woo! & Mohair March 125 (1.78
© Commercial Fertitizer November 2.00 2.50
1978-83 STATISTICAL BULLETINS © Farm Labor Quarterly 6.00 67.50
© mink duly 12500(1.75
© Field Crops, 1978-83 dune 1964 5.00 6.25 Q Mushrooms August 1.25 175
oO O Sugar Market
Hay, 1976-83 June 1984 6.00 7.50 Statistics (4 issues) Quarterly $.00 6.25
O Potatoes & Sweetpotatoes June 1984 2.00 2.50 O Floriculture Crops March 175 2.25
© Citrus Fruit, 1977/78-81/82 Sept. 1984 1.50 2.00
O Hogs & Pigs, 1970-82 Dec. 1984 2002.50
© ‘Noneltrus Fruits & Nuts,
1978-82 Jan. 1985 400 5.00
G Sheep & Goats, 1980-83 Jan, 1985. 425 4.75
© Cattle, 1980-83 Jan. 1985 275 3.75
© Chickens & Eggs, 1980-83 Jan. 1985 3.75  — §.00
© Milk Production, 1979-82 Feb. 1985 9275 3.75
© Vegetables, 1978-82 June 1965 6.75 6.50
O Meat Animats: Prod., Disp., &
Income 1979-82 April 1965 2.00 2.50
O Poultry: Prod:, Disp., & Income
1980-83 April 1985 4.752.285
O Crop Values 1978-82 June 1985 275 3.75

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se “foreign” price.

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s Crop United States
rop ro uct ion Reporting Department of
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Statistical Reporting Washington, D.C. 20250

Service
RELEASED: December 10, 1985 :

3:00 P.M. ET
HIGHLIGHTS

ALL COTTON production is expected to total 13.8 million bales, down frac-
tionally from the November 1 forecast but 6 percent above 1984. The 90
percent confidence interval for this production forecast is 13.4
million to 14.2 million bales.

DRY EDIBLE BEAN production is forecast at 22.3 million cwt (1.01 million metric
tons), up 6 percent from 1984 and 44 percent from 1983.

BURLEY TOBACCO production is forecast at 616 million pounds (279 thousand
metric tons), 14 percent below 1984.

ORANGE production is forecast at 184 million boxes (7.16 million metric tons),
up fractionally from October 1 and up 16 percent from last season.

GRAPEFRUIT production, excluding California's “other areas" crop, is 51.2 mil-
lion boxes (1.91 million metric tons), unchanged from November 1, but 1
percent less than last season.

LEMON production is forecast at 21.4 million boxes (738 thousand metric tons),
down 1 percent from November 1 and 17 percent from last season.

FIR III III III IIIA IIIA IIA IIIS IIIA IIIS IIIA IAI IAI IAI IAI IAI III III IIA.

NOTICE

See Proposed Program Modification on Page B-5.

eo Oe

* Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports
* should be directed to Crop Reporting Board Publications, Room 5829 -
* South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-4021).

HAREAIERIAKA IAI III III IRI IAI IA IAI I SKIS I IIIS SII IIIS SAI AI IIIS ISI I IAI AA

Pe ed

CrPr 2-2 (12-85) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


MARKETING

JUN
YEAR

ARIZ 1983-84 : 30 49 9 7 t 2 2 q 2 qT q
. 1984-85 7 40 44 4 y 1 3 1 1 2 r 1 1
CALIF 1983-84 : 22 ia 6 7 3 4 3 2 2 4 4 32
1984-85 : 20 16 7 4 4 § 6 4 7 5 5 18
coLo 1983-84 : VW 23 6 27 5 8 2 2 1 2 2
1984-85 : 23 30 10 7 10 2 3 4 1 5 2 3
IDAHO 1983-84 : 3 9 18 14 10 8 14 5 4 6 5 4
1984-85 : 4 14 15 16 1 8 10 6 5 4 4 3
MINN 1983-84 : 7 16 15 13 10 8 8 4 4 4 6
1984-85 : 16 8 VW 6 6 5 8 8 8 5 8 Y
MONT 1983-84 : 5 14 7 VW 6 7 W 9 7 7 3 3
1984-85 : 5 18 13 13 9 6 8 4 6 5 7 6
N DAK 1983-84 : 7 22 10 9 9 6 6 6 7 5 5 8
1984-85 : 8 28 8 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 10
OREG 1983-84 : W7 19 13 W 6 7 10 8 3 3 2 1
1984-85 : 5 31 WW 13 7 9 13 4 2 2 2 1
S DAK 1983-84 : 15 14 4 2 2 7 5 6 8 10 8 19
1984-85 2 10 24 7 wv 5 9 3 6 6 6 5 8
UTAH 1983-84 : 10 10 16 i) 8 10 8 9 9 3 3 3
1984-85 : 10 18 15 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4
WASH 1983-84 2 24 ral 12 inl 7 WT 3 3 2 3 1
1984-85 4 20 23 15 9 5 5 3 4 3 2
Wyo 1983-84 : 2 79 6 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 1
1984-85 3 8 74 6 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
us 1983-84 : 2 2.0 6.6 17.8 13.6 10.6 8.3 6.6 8.3 5.4 5.1 4.8 6.1 4.6
1984-85 3 4 1.4 7.7 21.8 12.0 9.9 7.4 5.7 7.0 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.6 6.0

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


FARM MARKETINGS, OF HAY.BY STATES, (1203-84 AND 1984-85

PERCENI

STATE AND

MARKETING Mar

PERCENT

1983-94 6% OM 4 ry a 6 6 6 6 a
1984-85 BOB 7 6 8 1 10 5 6 5 6 6
ARK 1983-84 4 BO 7 2 ? 3 8 6 6b on 5
1984-85 4 8B Rw 2 2 7 5 8 10 a 1
CALIF 1983-84 u “16 Mo 7 4 4 3 3 4 9
7986-85 vw ow Ww w 3 4 4 3 5 6 8
COLO 1983-88 7 9 9 2 4 8 7 7 6 3
1984-85 noo 9 9 10 9 9 ou 7 4 4 3
6A 1983-84 3 ? 6 9 10 u 9 19 5 9 7
1984-85 5 9 6 7 8 7 ow 2 6 3
IDAHO 1983-84 8 6 4 . 1B 9 8 8 5 3 3
1984-85 8 6 © 4 9B 9 8 8 5 3 3
TL 7983-84 1B 8 5 5 a 3 9 ww Ww Ww 8 2
1986-85 3 M4 a 7 3 3 7 8 9 8 7 2
IND 1983-84 8 9 6 6 5 4 @ ow B Ww a 4
1988-85 aon 8 6 4 4 8 9 10 9 6 4
Towa 1983-84 4 9 6 6 4 4 a 2 4 Ww 9 4
1986-85 mw 6 6 1 5 8 0 6 7 5 2
KANS 1983-88 4 10 8 ? 8 ow ww 2 9 8 4
1964-85 30 0 8 5 6 7 19 8 4 3
ky 1993-88 4 2 10 6 6 5 4 2 0B 19 9 4
1984-85 30 2 6 8 4 6 7 5 5 8 2
NICH 1983-840: 4% 10 6 4 5 6 9 6 Ww on 7
1984-85: 7 8 4 4 7 3 a 6 0 9 6
MINN 1983-83 5 3 a 6 a 8 5 10 so. 8
1984-85 4 7 4 5 3 30 1 2 Tt 7
HO 1993-88 3 6 9 2 4 2 3 6 Ww 8
1984-85 en 5 4 2 6 6 1% 2 12 6
MONT 1983-84: 2 18 13 3 u 4 2 10 10 4 3 3
Y9BA-BB 3 9 8 5 ob) N Bon 0 6 3
NEBR 1983-84: 8 8 7 6 8 oR " wz 10 3 6 2
1988-85: mk 8 5 6 a om W 8 6 5 3
Nev 1983-84: 2 4 7 7 8 0 8 B n Ww 0 5
1988-85 3 5 5 6 9 on on a 12 OB 9 6
NWEX 1983-84 oe 2 oR Noo 8 6 7 8 7 3
1984-85, ¢ 0 Nn nN 0 Ww 5 7 5 5 on 6
NY 1983-86 0 no 9 5 5 5 8 on wm Ww 9 5
y9ad-85 o 6% On 6 5 6 8 9 7 9 8 5
Noa 1983-84: \ 4 8 ? 7 8 8 6 6 “ wz 4
1984-85: ’ 3 2 9 wo W wow on 9 6 4
ono 1983-84: “10 7 6 5 7 © nN 9 6 3
7980-85 vo 8 6 5 7 0 WwW 8 8 6 3
OKLA 1983-84: 3 8 16 9 4 3 a u 14 2 a 4
1984-85 7 0 @ U 5 3 5 w $ 6 a
OREG 1983-88 v 8 8 9 9 3 8 on 9 8 6 3
1984-85 8 ao 6 7 6 9 3 é
PA 1983-84 n 10 6 6 5 6 s 0 2 10 9 6
1984-85 wo 3 6 G 4 6 wm 13 9 8 6
S DAK 1989-88 2 1 4 2 Wo 8 6 8 nN 8B 4
1984-85 1 4 1 3 i 8 0 %@ Ww 3 4
TEX 1983-86 3 8 g & 8 ry ., now 5 4
1984-85 7 a 1 10 8 10 7 8 7 7 6
UTAH 1983-84 2 W Bb oN 9 9 8 8 10 7 8 4
1984-85 30 om 2 0% Ww 10 8 7 9 8 7 5
WASH 1983-84 eon n 9 9 7 7 10 8 7 5 4
1984-85 uo ou uu Bw é 8 8 8 a 4 2
Wis 1983-24 6 9 4 2 4 7 7 6b 3B nN 2 9
1984-85 5 5 7 1 2 9 6 6 > 6 7
wo 1983-84 2 6 9 9 2B 6 wz ou .w 6 4 2
1984-85 1 10 9 9 6 6 NW 1B 8 9 6 3
0S 1983-84 6 39 106 11.2 92 76 71 7.6 8.0 9.2 84 7.6 6.8 2.2
1986-85 (3 430 106 189367987

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 AW CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


DRY EDIBLE BEANS, PRODUCTION BY COMMERCIAL CLASSES
THOUSAND HUNDREDWEIGHT, 1983~ 85 1/

BABY LIMA BLACKEYE GARBANZO

472 546 640 623 930 775 47 19 16
472 546 640 623 930 775 47 19 16

MICH 23,750 3,591 4,355 180 170 125 285 185 261
MINN s 270 415 543

NEBR 3 1,720 2,132 1,356 90

N DAK +: 598 960 1,451

WASH : 93 240 180

WYO 3 28 42 29

7618 4,966 6,349 1,940 2,404

MICH 250 260 398 30 35 165
MUNN : 70 80 139

MONT : 20 V4

NEBR

NY

WASH

us

CALIF 174 100 205 2,412 3,218 3,513
coLo 2/: 1,662 2,204 2,948 té 19a 1,680 2,394 2,948
IDAHO: 553 1,147 820 al 72 100 1,452 2,470 2,006
KANS + 126 204 272 126 204 272
MICK 3 28 30 64 27 19 44 4,550 4,290 5,412
MINN 3 100 202 182 12 3 4 452 700 868
MONT : 35 132 43 2 37 152 57
NEBR 3 433 882 990 216 265 2,188 3,230 2,701
NY 2 22 36 20 255 372 297
N DAK =: 1,020 1,500 1,534 30 60 25 1,648 2,520 3,010
UTAH z 41 54 40 41 54 40
WASH : 78 214 199 7 33 13 355 707 710
WYO ry 296 717 452 324 759 481
us + 4,372 7,286 7,544 333 729 676 «15, 520 21,070 22,315

1/ 1984 REVISED.
2/ FOR 1985, A SMALL QUANTITY OF OTHER BEANS INCLUDED IN PINTO TO AVOID
POSSIBLE DISCLOSURE OF INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONS.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ORANGES: U.S. production is forecast at 184 million boxes (7.16 million metric

tons), up fractionally from the October 1? forecast, up 16 percent
from last season and 9 percent more than 1983-84. The forecast of ai) oranges
in Florida is 132 million boxes, unchanged from the October 1 forecast, 27
percent above last season's crop, and 13 percent more than 1983-84. The
forecast for early and mid-season varieties in Florida is 71.0 million boxes,
29 percent more than last season and 2 percent above the 1983-84 crop. The
Valencia forecast, at 61.0 million boxes, is 25 percent more than last season
and 30 percent above the 1983-84 crop.

The California all orange crop forecast, at 49.0 million boxes, is
unchanged from October 1, 6 percent below last season, but 1 percent above the
1983-84 crop. The forecast for Navel oranges is 30.0 million boxes, the same
as_the October 1 forecast, ?5 percent more than last season, but 11 percent
below the 1983-84 production. Harvest of the Navel crop jis 10 percent
complete. California's Valencia forecast of 19.0 million boxes is unchanged
from the October 1 forecast, 27 percent less than last season, but 28 percent
more than the 1983-84 crop.

The Arizona orange forecast is 2.50 million boxes, up 19 percent from
October 1 and 2 percent more than last season. The Texas orange forecast is
unchanged from October 1, at 450 thousand boxes. Last season, there was no
commercial fruit harvested in Texas due to the December 1983 freeze.

Changes in U.S. production between December 1? and final production have
averaged 21.7 million boxes over the past ten seasons, ranging from 300
thousand boxes in 1977-78 to 53.0 million boxes in 1983-84. The freeze that
occurred in Florida and Texas during December 1983 was the major cause for the
53.0 million box difference between the December 1, 1983 and final production
for the 1983-84 season.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1985-86 yield projection of

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice is
1.42 gallons per box at 42.0 degree Brix. This yield computation is projected
to the final amount reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association at
the end of the harvest season. The 1984-85 freeze-reduced final season
average yield was 1.37582 gallons per box. In 1983-84, the FCOJ final yield
was 1.28931 gallons per box which was also affected by freezing weather.

GRAPEFRUIT: Excluding California's “other areas" grapefruit, the 1985-86
forecast is 51.2 million boxes (1.91 million metric tons), un-

changed from the November 1 forecast but 1 percent less than last season.
Production for the California “other areas" crop, which will be forecast as of
April 1, 1986, accounted for 4.00 million boxes last season. The Florida all
grapefruit forecast is 44.0 million boxes, unchanged from the October 1
forecast and the same as last season. Harvest is 17 percent complete.
Arizona's forecast, at 2.90 million boxes, is unchanged from November 1, but
is 22 percent below last season. California's "Desert Valley" forecast
continues at 3.80 million boxes, 3 percent less than the 1984-85 harvest. The
Texas crop forecast continues at 500 thousand boxes. Production is very
limited this season due to the severe freeze that occurred in December 1983.
Last season, no commercial supplies were available from Texas.

LEMONS: Production in Arizona and California is expected to total 21.4 million

boxes (738 thousand metric tons), down 1 percent from November 1, and
17 percent less than last season's utilized production. California's forecast
is 17.9 million boxes, down 2 percent from November 1, and 10 percent below
last season. .The Arizona forecast continues at 3.50 million boxes, 42 percent
less than last season. Harvest is nearly 50 percent complete in Arizona, but
only 13 percent complete in California.

TANGERINES: The U.S. production forecast is 3.60 million boxes (132 thousand

metric tons), unchanged from November 1 but 5 percent more than
Jast season. The Florida crop forecast is 1.30 million boxes, unchanged from
October 1 but 5 percent above last season. The forecast is for that portion
of the crop expected to reach a size of 210 fruit per 4/5 bushel carton by
December 1 for the variety Dancy, and by November 1 for Robinson. (An
estimate of utilized production will be shown in the February Crop Production
Report). The Dancy tangerine forecast in Florida is 700 thousand boxes and
the Robinson forecast is 400 thousand boxes, both unchanged from October 1.
The California crop is forecast at 1.80 million boxes and the Arizona crop
forecast totals 700 thousand boxes.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 B-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA




COTTON

AREA HARVESTED + YIELD x PRODUCTION 1/

: IND 1 1 IND
1984: 1985 1983 : 1984 1985
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 2/
307.0 327.0 699 734 183.0 447.0 500.0
429,0 390.0 1,227 1,231 725.0 1,097.0 1,000.0
465.0 440.0 632 764 323.0 612.0 700.0
1,400.0 1,340.0 999 1,146 1,971.0 3,200.0
17,0 21.5 847 781 15.2 35.0
172.0 255.0 784 678 112.0
3 +8 288 480 +2
645.0 635.0 786 574 532.0
1,032.0 1,040.0 767 775 900.0
162.0 152.0 554 616 73.0
69.0 55.0 605 655 70.0
96.0 88.0 600 627 43.0
375.0 355.0 234 352 145.0
Yoa.o 122.0 785 708 33.0
325.0 330.0 498 582 151.0
700.0 4,700.0 376 429° 2,380.0
i 13 528 591 3 :
299.5 10,252.6 599 640 7,676.7 12,851.48
50.3 59.5 Bat 863 46.9 aa.
10.0 17 595 655 15.8
19.3 19.4 744 742 32.0
19.6 86.6 786 818 94.7
307.0 327.0 699 734 183.0
479.3 449.5 1,187 1,182 171.9
465.0 440.0 632 164 323.0
1,400.0 1,340.0 999 1,146 1,971.0
17,0 21.5 847 781 15.2
172.0 255.0 784 678 112.0
3 8 288 480 2
645.0 635.0 786 574 532.0
1,032.0 1,040.0 767 775 900.0
162.0 152.0 3554 616 73.0
79.0 62.7 604 655 85.8
96.0 88.0 600 627 43.0
375.0 355.0 234 352 145.0
104.0 122.0 785 708 53.0
325.0 330.0 498 582 151.0
4,719.3 4,719.4 377 430 2,412.0
YA 3/ 1,0 1.3 528 591 3 1
us + 10,379,1  10,339.2 600 641 7,771.4 12,981.

17 PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO BE GINNED-
2/ 480-LB. NET WEIGHT BALES.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

STATE

1,000 TONS
5.149

PRODUCTION

AREA HARVESTED

1,000 POUNDS

TYPE 31
1ND 8,100 7,100 2,320 2,300 13,081 18,792 16,330
ky 210,000 172,000 2,340 2,400 297,600 491,400 412,800
wo 17 + 2,900 2,700 2,015 2,250 6,417 5,846
Nc + 9,600 8,700 2,185 2,250 21,989 20,976
OHIO : 10,900 8,000 2,230 2,150 15,750 24,307
TENN 61,000 55,000 2,030 2,150 98,400 123,830
vA 10,800 9,700 2,090 2,250 24,480 22,572
WVA 1/ = 2,400 2,300 1,870 1,600 3,762 4,488
us 1315,700 265,500 2,256 2,319 481,439 712,209

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 Ana CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF ELAXSEED, BY 5ST} TERant eee 84 AND 1984-85

PERCENT

STATE AND
MARKETING

MINN 1983-84 : 2 42 16 12 nN 2
1984-85 3 9 22 42 4

N DAK 1983-84 4 12 40 16 6 5
1984-85 2 14 25 12 10 13

S DAK 1983-84 1 23 3 1
1984-85 2 3 3 7 3

us 1983-84 3.5 15.0 6.0 44
1984-85 1 16.7 9 11,0

FARM MARKETINGS OF SORGHUM, BY STATES, 1983-84 AND 1984-85
BY MONTHS

PERCENT OF SALES,

MARKETING
YEAR

ARIZ. 1983-84: 0

2 2 10 26 32 10 3 i 0 10 5
1984-85: 1 2 2 16 15 16 v7 WW 8 6 6
CALIF 1983-84: 10 29 24 8 7 2 4 5 1 3 1 6
1984-85: 16 30 29 7 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 2
COLO 1983-84: 27 n 9 W7 6 8 6 4 5 3 2 2
1984-85: 5 32 23 16 6 4 4 1 3 2 3 1
KANS 1983-84: 7 4 13 n 8 9 9 7 7 3 5 7
1984-85 : 6 14 22 13 15 8 6 4 4 3 2 3
MO 1983-84: 25 19 18 6 8 4 9 3 2 2 2 2
1984-85: 24 24 19 8 10 3 2 2 3 2 1 2
NEBR = 1983-84 : 19 14 n 15 8 9 4 5 3 6 2 4
1984-85: 12 25 16 20 3 7 6 4 3 2 1 1
N MEX 1983-84 : 4 27 21 n 22 6 1 1 1 2 3 q
1984-85: 1 7 33 el WV 3 1 2 1 1 2 1
OKLA 1983-84: 6 5 7 15 V7 12 174 8 5 8 2 3
1984-85: 20 12 5 22 7 13 3 4 4 3 5 2
TEX 1983-84 6: 4 15 32 7 9 7 7 8 4 3 2 2
1984-85 =: 11 25 13 4 5 14 10 nv 2 2 2 1
US 1983-84: 1.6 5.8 12.6 7.0 13.7 11.6 9. 6. 6.
¥984-85 3.8 8.6 5.0 5.7 10.9 19.8 2 4 4

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF SOYBEANS, BY STATES, 1983-84 AND 1984-85
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE AND
MARKETING
YEAR
ALA 1983-84
1984-85
ARK 1983-84 2 3
1984-85 3 4
GA 1983-84 oo 21 35 13 5 3 7 4 4 1 5
1984-85 : 1 23 37 VW 5 3 4 3 2 2 2 1
ILL 1983-84 9 15 3 5 14 7 13 9 13 4 3 5
1984-85 5 VW VW 6 12 6 2: 9 5 7 9 7
IND 1983-84 20 25 5 4 8 5 8 8 9 2 2 4
1984-85 7 25 18 4 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 5
TOWA 1983-84 8 19 6 5 4 6 a) 6 4 6 2 3
1984-85 5 14 9 7 8 6 9 8 7 9 10 8
KANS 1983-84 6 22 10 9 7 6 8 W 16 2 1 2
1984-85 5 20 19 10 uv 5 9 5 5 5 3 3
kY 1983-84 4 15 13 10 19 10 iW 5 5 2 3 3
1984-85 2 7 25 8 16 7 14 8 3 3 2 5
LA 1983-84 4 30 29 W 12 7 4 1 1
1984-85 6 22 29 n 10 9 7 2 2 1 1
MICH 1983-84 4 34 7 8 6 6 7 6 8 2 1
1984-85 1 16 20 5 7 4 10 12 8 8 7 2
MINN 1983-84 :u 19 W 7 9 4 7 7 18 4 3 3
1984-85 2 5 13 10 7 8 6 8 9 7 VW 10 6
MISS 1983-84 3 18 29 15 u 7 7 4 3 1 1 1
1984-85 3 14 26 V7 14 4 9 5 2 2 2
MO 1983-84 7 24 VW 8 13 6 9 6 9 3 2 2
1984-85 3 7 30 VW 9 6 9 7 4 5 4 5
NEBR 1983-84 7 16 8 5 10 6 13 9 16 3 4 3
1984-85 4 in) 13 9 an 7 10 10 5 6 9 5
NC 1983-84 : 1 7 32 31 8 3 7 4 4 1 1 1
1984-85 2 7 5 49 19 7 4 5 5 1 2 1 1
OHIO 1983-84 : 10 25 7 5 10 4 13 8 14 1 1 2
1984-85 15 22 16 6 7 4 9 7 6 7 5 6
sc 1983-84 to 2 V7 31 7 6 10 4 6 2 1 3
1984-85 12 8 37 24 9 6 4 3 2 1 2 2
TENN 1983-84 : 2 34 27 6 9 4 8 3 3 1 1 2
1984-85 2 4 6 43 18 8 4 8 5 2 3 1 1
US 1983-84 8.1 20.2 12.0 7.4 11.7 5.5 9.7 6.4 11.0 3.2 2.1 2.7
1984-85 4.2 14.3 19.9 9.0 9.5 5.5 8.9 6.9 8 5.9 6.1 5.0

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED 3 AREA HARVESTED
CROP : : ° 3 : INDICATED
: 1984 : 1985 : 1984 : 1985
ee HECTARES
ALL COTTON : 4 510 440 4 346 010 4 200 310 4 184 170
UPLAND : 4 478 020 4 310 880 4 168 100 4 149 120
AMER-PIMA 3 32 420 35 130 32 210 35 050
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1/ : 607 440 639 370 590 970 602 340
BURLEY TOBACCO Hy 127 760 107 450

1/1984 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION

H INDICATED
: INDICATED : 0 tennnennn-n-----------

METRIC TONS

ALL COTTON : 0.67 0.72 2 826 440 3 020 880 3 006 730

UPLAND 3 0.67 0.72 2 798 050 2 988 770 2 974 620

AMER-PIMA : 0.88 0.92 28 390 32 110 32 110
COTTONSEED : 4 671 090 4 997 680 4 975 000
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 1/ : 1.62 1.68 955 710 1001 070 1 012 190
BURLEY TOBACCO : 2.53 2.60 323 050 279 290
PECANS 3 105 410 3/119 160 107 180
CITRUS FRUITS 2/ : 1984~85 1985-86 1985-86

ORANGES : 6 095 370 3/7 145 890

/ 10
LEMONS 889 040 748 430 737 540

1/1984 REVISED. 2/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN

AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR. 3/ OCTOBER 1,
1985.

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


March 1985

iCrop
‘Reporting ORDER FORM
Board CROP REPORTING BOARD REPORTS
Statistical
sen Subscription Fee Subscription Fee
Report Title Domestic Foreign * Report Title Domestic Foreign
FIELD CROP SERIES G Eggs, Chickens & Turkeys
Monthly issues plus $25.00 $31.25
O Crap Production single copies of:
(monthiy/annual) $30.00 $37.50 Hatchery Production Annual
Plus singie copy of Layers & Egg Prod. Annual
Prospective Plantings Poultry-Prod., Disposition,
O Peanut Stocks & Processing 18.00 22.50 & Income
(Monthly) . Turkeys
© Grain Stocks 12.00 15.00 O Poultry Staughter (monthty} 18.00 22.50
Four issues plus copy of:
Soybean Stocks DAIRY SERIES
1 Potatoes & Sweetpotatoes 9.50 11.90
One issue pius 6 copies of: CO Dairy Products
Potato Stocks (monthiy/annual) 20.00 25.00
O Rice Stocks (4 issues) 6.00 7.50 CO Milk Production 19.00 23,75
“Monthly issues plus single
FRUIT & VEGETABLE SERIES capy of:
Miik-Prod., Disposition,
O Celery (monthly) 17.00 21.25 & income
C Noncitrus Fruits & Nuts
(midyear/anqual) 8.50 10.85 OTHER REPORTS
CG Vegetables 18.00 22.50
Twelve seasonal-issues © Agricultural Prices (monthly) 27.00 33.75
plus an Annual O Catfish (monthly) : 17.00 21.25
C Cold Storage (monthiy/annuai} 22.00 27.80
LIVESTOCK SERIES.
SPECIAL SINGLE COPY REPORTS
O Cattle 22.00 27.50 .
Two issues plus monthly G Scope & Methods of the
issues of: Statistical Reporting Service
Cattle on Feed SN; 001-000-04369-2 5.00 6.25
D Hogs & Pigs (4 issues) 10.00 12.50 O Agricultural Statistics, 1984 . .
C Livestock Slaughter © Usual Planting and Harvesting
{monthly/annual) 20.00 25.00 Dates for U.S. Field Crops 3.00 3.75
SN: 001-000-04416-8
POULTRY SERIES
O Egg Products (monthly) 18.00 22.80

Note:

For your convenience in ordering, we have grouped several publications together in packages. For example, when you subscribe to

the Crop Production series you will receive 12 monthly copies and an annual summary of that report plus single copies of Prospective
Plantings. If you have any questions about ordering, please call (202) 447-4021.

* Price not yet determined — Call (202) 447-4021.

Mail order form to: Superintendent of Documents
Government Printing Office
Washington, DC 20402

NAME

ADDRESS

CITY, STATE, ZIP

Credit card order only: (VISA © Mastercard

Towi charges $
Credit card no,
Expiration date: month/year

Write check payable to Superintendent of Documents.
Add 25% for foreign address,

Enclosed is $
CO check ,
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1D Charge to my Deposit Account No.
. For Office Use Only
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Enclosed MMOB
To be mailed OPNR
——Subseriptions UPNS
Postage DISCOUNT
Foreign handling ——__ REFUND

U.S, GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1985-90-91 6:40007-SRS


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
{DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

cROP INDICATED
1984 1985 1984 1985

eee 1,000 ACRES

ALL COTTON 5.4 10,739.1 10,379.1 10,339.2
UPLAND 5.3 103652.3 10;299.5 10;252.6
AMER -PIMA 011 36.8 79.6 86.6

DRY EDIBLE BEANS 1/ 120 1,579.9 1,460.3 1,488.4

BURLEY TOBACCO : 315.7 265.5

If 1984 REVISED.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY - YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE PRODUCTION
CROP INDICATED
AND : : INDICATE
UNIT > 1984 : 1985 1984 NOV 1, DEC 1
: 2 1985 1985
1,000
ALL COTTON BALE 1/: 600 64t 12,981.8 13,874.9 13,809.9
UPLAND " V/s: 599 640 12,851.4 13,727.4 13,662.4
AMER-PIMA " Vs 786 818 130.4 147.5 147.5
COTTONSEED TON + 5,149 5,509 5,484
ORY EDIBLE :

BEANS 2/ CWT 1/: 1,443 1,499 21,070 22,070 22,315
BURLEY TOBACCO LB : 2,256 2,319 712,209 615,735
PECANS " : 232,400 4/262,700 236,300
CITRUS FRUITS 3/ : 1984-85 1985-86 1985-86
“ORANGES Box: 158,350 4/T8S,550 ’

LEMONS. " : 25,800 _ 21,700 21,400

1/- YIELD IN POUNDS. 2/ 1984 REVISED. 3/ SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF
THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING
YEAR. 4/ OCTOBER 1, 1985.

pan ee enn en ee en ee ee ee ene ene eee enn e nee eny
The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with
related information on selected agricultural commodities, These data were

prepared and adopted by the Crop Reporting Board which consists of commodity
statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters,

CROP REPORTING BOARD:
Raymond R. Hancock, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,
APPROVE OD: Rich D0. Allen, John D. Witzig,
Roger M. Foster, Richard P. Small,
Robert L. Addison, Arvin R, Budge,

Att S. Radley Edwards, Clifton 0. James,
&. Doyle C. Johnson, Steven A. Manheimer,|
Darwin E. Ransom.

ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

L

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FARM MARKETINGS OF OATS, 8Y STATES, 1983-84 AND 1984-85
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE AND
MARKETING SEP oct : Nov
YEAR
“PERCENT
ARK 1983-84: a2 20 15 10 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
1984-85: 52 16 3 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4
CALIF 1983-84: 4 4 3 3 8 4a 3 4 3 28 33 3
1984-85: 15 Vz n 8 12 8 6 10 5 5 6 2
TOAHO 1983-84: aT 3 14 v3 7 7 3 9 4 7 WwW 4
1984-85 6 13 12 35 6 3 8 9 4 3 1
TLL 1983-84 24 13 4 2 5 4 9 10 7 7 7 8
1984-85 16 28 7 3 1 3 6 7 9 7 7 6
IND 1983-84: ay 16 7 3 2 2 15 6 8 3 9 8
1984-85 3 45 47 7° 2 1 1 2 3 4 ard 3 3
OWA 1983-84: 20 25 10 3 2 3 7 6 4 6 6 8
1984-85 + 28 26 6 5 3 3 6 3 5 5 5 5
MICH 1983-84 6 37 10 7 5 5 7 8 5 4 4 2
1984-85 6 35 8 4 3 9 7 7 7 5 6 3
MINN 1983-84: W 22 12 8 4 5 7 4 5 7 6 9
1984-85 = 16 27 4 3 2 5 3 9 n 6 7 7
MONT 1983-84: uv 6 4 W 8 5 3 8 18 4 2 2
1984-85 = 6 7 12 8 6 14 8 5 6 13 7 8
NEBR 1983-84 7 20 7 4 ? 6 13 4 8 4 4 6
1984-85 27 28 6 3 4 2 7 3 6 7 4 3
ny 1983-84 am 18 W 5 3 3 8 12 12 7 6 4
1984-85 20 3 2 4 6 7 4 nv 8 9 4
NC 1983-84 a4 12 2 8 9 4 8 4 5 1 2 1
1984-85 40 n 10 2 9 7 3 3 5 4 V 5
N OAK 1983-84 5 22 Ww at) g & 8 S 5 5 a 7
1984-85 9 22 12 7 8 9 6 5 6 6 4 6
OHIO 1983-84 22 27 6 4 6 4 4 n 7 4 2 3
1984-85 16 28 u 4 2 5 6 4 8 6 4 6
OREG 1983-84 9 9 15 12 9 15 7 8 8 4 3 1
1984-85 2 12 22 19 6 8 10 2 6 6 5 2
PA 1983-84 9 58 3 3 3 3 4 10 2 2 2 1
1984-85 8 9 8 6 v 3 3 3 10 9 6 24
S DAK 1983-84 14 19 5 5 8 7 n 7 5 5 6 8
1984-85 4 24 6 4 4 9 10 6 7 6 5 5
TEX 1983-84 30 38 "1 4 2 2 5 1 1 4 1 1
1984-85 12 24 25 n 1 4 2 7 3 2 2 7
WIS 1983-84 10 24 4 8 4 4 8 9
1984-85 13 30 7 4 3 3 5 7
us 1983-84 2.0 3.8 8 5
1984-85 7 6

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 AWS



FARM MARKETINGS OF CORN FOR GRAIN BY STATES, 1983-84 AND 1984-85
PERCENT OF SALES, BY MONTHS

STATE _ANO
MARKETING
YEAR

colo. = 1983-84 t: n 9 5 12 10 10 10 7 6 7
1984-85: 6 17 12 12 5 3. 10 11 8 6 3 7
GA 1983-84 1g 14 4 2 2 5 2 3 2 5
1984-85 0: 23 8 2 3 3 3 4 33 1 8
TLL 1983-84: 12 8 9 18 8 13 6 5 6 6 4 8
1984-85: 1513 6 616 6 10 8 6 5 6 4 5
IND 1983-84: 16 «12 7 16 9 9 7 5 5 5 4 5
1984-85: 4 23 7 0 8 9 7 5 4 5 3 4
TOWA 1983-84: 13 8 8 ow 7 4B 8 6 5 6 5 4
1984-85: 1416 6 9 6 9 8 6 7 8 6 5
KANS 1983-84: 5 12 18 8 8 10 13 6 11 5 3 4
1984-85: 1119 «16126 6 5 4 2 3 2
KY 1983-84: 8 7 7 8 21 0 9 5 2 2 5 5
1984-85 8 16 15 11 16 8 9 7 3 2 2 3
MICH 1983-84: 8 28 13. 12 9 10 6 4 5 2 2 1
1984-85: 8 2a 8 9 6 12 9 6 5 3 3
MINN © 1983-84: 9 2 8 10 5 10 8 8 7 4
1984-85 9 15 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 (12 6
wo 1983-84 0: W118 E103 9 7 5 5 5 6 3
1984-85: 13° °«16~—«16 7 a 6 8 6 5 5 5 5
NEBR 1983-84 st: 13°10 7 14 6 12 10 § 5 10 5 3
1984-85 =: 6 13 10 12 914 9 7 6 6 5 3
NC 1983-84: 39°13 6 5 5 7 6 43 2 2 8
1984-85: 4923 5 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 5
OHIO. © 1983-84 st: 210«47 9 15 9 9 5 4 3 2 4 2
1984-85 2.00 100 8 10 8 6 5 5 4 5
PA 1983-84: 18 (18 6 0 13 7 5 3 4 5 2 9
1984-85: 10 07 7 7 6 9 5 4 6 6 9 (14
S DAK 1983-84: 16 «14 7 10 6 9 8 9 6 ? 5 3
1984-85: 1326 9 6 6 8 6 5 ? 7 4 3
TEX 1983-84 =: ‘16 9 18 6 10 3 3 32 1 22
1984-85 =: 22 1% 618 61 9 10 3 2 1 3 1 4
WIS 1983-84:
1984-85
us 1983-84
1984-85

CROP PRODUCTION, DECEMBER 1985 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA