Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by Class United States, 1990-91

Class and Type

weeee -~ 3,000 Pounds --
Class I Flue- Cured
Type ii, old

Nddle Belts :
: 106,000 104,000 2,090 1,950 221,540 202,800

vA : 40; 000 38,000 2,120 2,200 84,800 83,600

US £ 146;000 142/000 23098 23017 306,340 286;400

Type 12, Eastern NC:

e

NC : 135,000 131,000 2,370 2,215 319,950 290,165
Type 13, NC Border & ;:
Belt

+ 35,000 35,000 2,290 2,220 80,150 77,700
SC : 51,000 51,000 2,155 2,200 109,905 112,200
US : 86,000 86,000 2,210 2,208 190,055 189,900
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
L : 6,900 6,900 2,760 2,250 19,044 15,525
GA 1 43) ,000 405000 2,415 2,050 103,845 82,000
US : 49° 900 46,900 2,463 2,079 122,889 97,525
Total 11-14 : 416,900 405,900 2,253 2,129 939,234 863,990

Class 2, Fire-Cured
Type 21, VA Belt

2,100 2,400 1,315 1,350 2,762 3,240
We 22, Eastern

istrict :
: 3,150 3,300 2,450 2,100 7,718 6,930
i : 6,600 6,600 2,305 2,200 15,213 14,520
> 9,750 9,900 2,352 2,167 22,931 21,450
ne 23, Western
istrict
3,100 3,200 2,600 2,100 8,060 6,720
490 490 2,500 2,200 1,225 1,078
us : 3,590 3,690 2,586 2,113 9,285 7,798
Total 21-23 : 15,440 15,990 2,265 2,032 34,978 32,488
ch ass 3, Air-Cured :
lass 3a, Light
oars Cured
Typ6 31, Burley
N : 6,400 7,200 2,100 2,100 13,440 15,120
KY : 1853000 2133000 27270 2,150 419,950 457,950
MO 1/ : 2,600 3,000 2,280 2,150 5,928 >
NC : 83200 85900 27195 13900 17,999 16,910
OH : 9,700 10,500 1,950 2,150 18,915 22,575
TMN : 46,000 53/000 2,060 2,000 94,760 106,000
VA : 11,000 12,000 2,055 2,200 22,605 26,400
WV o1/ : 1,700 1,900 1,600 1,600 2,720 35040
US : 270,600 309,500 2,204 2,115 596,317 654; 445
Type 32, Southern MD
elt d/ :
MD : 7,100 7,400 1,360 1,450 9,656 10,730
PA : 3; 600 3,800 1,850 1,850 6; 660 7,030
US 10; 700 11,200 91,525 1,586 16; 316 17,760
Total 31-32 : 281, 7300 320,700 2,178 2,096 612,633 672; 205
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1991 A-20 NASS, USDA


In California, harvest continued to wind down in the central and northern
districts. Beet virus yellows reduced yields in the Sacramento Valley and
Manteca areas.

Beet lifting in North Dakota advanced well in early October, slowed with warm
weather in mid-month, and was mostly complete by October 20.

Michigan's harvest is nearing completion. Most of the crop was harvested with
favorable weather. Weather stress limited yields.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at

31.0 million tons, 2 percent below the October 1 forecast but
10 percent above last year's output. Nationally, the harvested area of
895,200 acres is up 13 percent from 1990. The average yield of 34.7 tons per
acre is 0.7 ton lower than in 1990. Increased output from a year earlier is
expected in Louisiana and Texas; however, Florida and Hawaii expect decreased
production.

In Florida, all mills are open and actively processing cane. Planting of cane
is also active.

Hawaii had sunny skies and record high temperatures the first half of October.
During the third week, Kauai and Oahu received heavy rain which slowed harvest
operations. Meanwhile, Maui and Hawaii remained dry. A water conservation
notice has reduced irrigation of sugarcane on Maui, but the impact will be on
future crops rather than this year's crop.

The condition of Louisiana sugarcane deteriorated during October. Several
weeks of dry weather and three nights of sub-freezing temperatures have
limited tonnage.

In the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, rains of 3 to 7 inches stopped harvest for
several days. Harvest is about 20 percent complete.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on
November 1, for the 48 contiguous States,

was 72 percent of normal, up 1 point from November 1, 1990, but 2 points below

the 1980-89 average for the date. Conditions were below last year in

29 States, above last year in 18 States, and unchanged in one State. No

States were in the extreme or severe drought ranges.

Twelve States across the country reported conditions in the very poor range.
In the South Atlantic area from Georgia to Virginia, pasture and range
conditions were in the very poor range.

Conditions were also very poor in Arizona, California, Indiana, Kansas,
Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Florida Citrus: Groves and trees continue to be in excellent condition.
Subsurface moisture levels are excellent. Some growers are
irrigating to offset recent dry, windy conditions. The current fruit crop is
in excellent condition. Harvest is wel] advanced for this time of year due to
the earlier than normal bloom for some groves and optimum growing conditions

Crop Production Agricultura) Statistics Board
November 1991 B-10 NASS, USDA


is the highest ever for the region. North Dakota and Minnesota production
jumped 85 and 17 percent, respectively, as growing conditions were nearly
ideal during the season. Wisconsin's production was up 1 percent from last
year because of higher acreage. Michigan potatoes yielded less than last year
because of summer heat, but harvest went smoothly. The Nebraska crop was down
15 percent from last year and the Ohio potato crop dropped 25 percent. South
Dakota yields were up from a year ago but lower acreage turned out a

10 percent smaller crop.

The nine Western States' potato production is forecast at 255 million cwt in
1991, up 3 percent from last year and 14 percent above two years ago. Acreage
for harvest, at 691,400 acres, is down slightly from last year, but the
average yield of 368 cwt per acre was up 14 cwt from a year ago. Idaho's
production of 122 million cwt was up 3 percent from last year under good
summer and fal] growing conditions. Harvest was virtually completed by the end
of October with little frost damage. Washington's potato production rose

8 percent from last year on higher acreage. Cold weather hit the tail end of
harvest leaving some acreage unharvested. The Oregon crop was 5 percent
smaller than last year with a downturn in acreage. Yields in both Oregon and
Washington were slightly better than a year ago. Colorado's fall potato
production is 5 percent larger than last year based on a good season and early
arvest completion. Montana and Nevada had better crops than last year by

12 and 9 percent, respectively. California, Utah, and Wyoming each produced
fewer potatoes than a year ago.

Soybeans: Production as of November 1 is forecast at 1.96 billion bushels, up
1 percent from October 1 and 2 percent above the 1990 production.
If realized, this level would be the fifth highest on record. Yield is

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
1982 - 1991

BILLION BUSHELS

2.00}. < A. aren eS opt 2S 4:02 1.93 |.
< UNIS
1.004-S8 IN i IA

expected to average 33.5 bushels per acre, 0.5 bushel above the October 1 |
forecast but 0.6 bushel below 1990. Harvested area, at 58.6 million acres, is
unchanged from last month.

Yields were unchanged or up in all States except Minnesota. As harvest neared
completion in the major producing States, yields continued to be better than

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 199] B-6 NASS, USDA


Report Features

Cropping practice data for selected States includes corn plant population and
number of ears per acre, soybean pods with beans per 18 square feet, corn and

soybean row width, and fall potato acreage planted by variety.

The next "Crop Production" report will be released on December 11, 1991, at

3:00 p.m. ET.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Bil) Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Kirby Cavett, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-3180
Marty Owens, Rice, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-2157
Vaughn Siegenthaler, Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068
Charles Van Lahr, Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369
Herb Vanderberry, Soybeans (202) 720-9526
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Steve Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Jim Brewster, Fruits, Fresh Vegetables (202) 720-7688
Arvin Budge, Potatoes, Dry Beans, Processing Vegetables (202) 720-4285
Kevin Hintzman, Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 720-5412
Roger Latham, Cotton, Peanuts (202) 720-5944
Darwin Ransom, Sugar, Tobacco, Hay (202) 720-7621
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 199] B-15

NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Planted, by Seasonal Group,
State and United States, 1990-91

Seasonal Group : H :: Seasonal Group
and : : and 1990 1991
State State

1,000 Acres

Winter 1/ : rs: Fall 1/ 2/
CA : 5.5 5.6 3: CA : 17.0 14.5
FL : 8.0 7.6 ot: co : 65.5 71.0
3 Hi 1D :
Total > 13.5 13.2 03: 10 SW Co : 20.0 22.0
: rt Other Co : 385.0 373.0
Spring 1/ 3 tt IN : 4.3 4.5
AL : 5.8 4.0 3: ME : 81.0 81.0
AZ : 6.9 6.0 MA : 2.6 3.0
CA : 22.5 20.7 tt MI 3 34.0 35.0
FL : i MN 3 69.0 70.0
Hastings : 29.0 27.5 or: MT : 9.0 9.4
Other : 8.5 8.6 NE : 9.4 9.1
NC > 16.5 17.3 NV : 7.0 7.6
TX : 7.0 5.0 NY :
: Long Is : 6.5 6.6
Total : 96.2 89.1 Upstate : 22.5 23.0
: i ND : 150.0 158.0
Summer : nt OH : 8.0 8.0
AL : 7.0 7.0 3: OR :
cA 5.3 5.0 Malheur : 7.2 6.8
co 7.3 7.5 Other Co : 46.8 44.2
DE 8.2 7.7 PA : 23.0 21.0
IL 3.4 4.5 RI : 1.1 1.5
1A 1.7 1.5 SD 3 9.0 7.5
MD 1.8 1.7 UT : 6.3 6.1
MI 12.0 12.0 WA : 133.0 144.0
MN 6.2 7.4 WI : 67.0 68.0
MO 6.8 6.5 WY : 2.3 2.1
NE 2.8 2.5 :
NJ 4.5 4.1 Total : 1,186.5 1,196.9
NM 12.0 12.0 :
NC 1.5 1.5 US : 1,399.7 1,402.6
TMX 12.0 11.5
VA 11.0 11.0
Total : 103.5 103.4
J/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1990 revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1991 A-14 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit: Production, by State and United States, 1990-92 1/

Production : Production
: Boxes 3 Ton Equivalent
CROP iter nner nnn ee eee mee amma mmm mma
and Utilized : Utilized
State feccrcccec ne ne---

1991-92 :

Oranges, Early Mid
& Navel 3/ 4/
AZ

3 390 550 700 14 20 26
CA : 44,300 15,800 29,000 1,661 593 1,088
FL : 68,100 87,500 80,000 3,064 3,937 3,600
TX 5/ 1,050 60 44

3
US 113,840 103,850 109,760 4,783 4,550 4,717
Oranges, Valencia 4/

1,220 1,200 1,400 45 45 53
CA 27,100 11,000 24,000 1,016 412 900
FL 42,100 64,000 56,000 1,894 2,880 2,520
1X 5/ : 155 35 7 }
US : 70,575 76,200 81,435 2,962 3,337 3,474
All Oranges 4/ :
AZ : 1,610 1,750 2,100 59 65 79
CA 3 71,400 26,800 53,000 2,677 1,005 1,988
FL : 110,200 151,500 136,000 4,958 6,817 6,120
TX 5/ : 1,205 95 51 4
US 184,415 180,050 191,195 7,745 7,887 8,191
Temples 4/
FL 1,400 2,500 2,600 63 113 117
Grapefruit, White
Seedless :
FL 4/ : 18,000 21,700 20,000 765 922 850
Grapefruit, Colored :
Seedless
FL 4/ 16,300 21,800 21,000 693 926 893
Other Grapefruit
FL 4, 1,400 1,600 1,500 60 68 64
All Grapefruit
AL 4/ 2,200 2,400 2,300 70 77 74
CA 4/ 6/ :
Desert : 3,500 3,500 3,500 112 112 112
Other Areas : 5,900 4,500 198 150
Total : 9,400 8,000 310 262
FL 4/ : 35,700 45,100 42,500 1,518 1,916 1,807
1X 5/ : 2,000 115 80 5
US : 49,300 55,500 1,978 2,255
Tangerines 4/
AZ 600 600 700 22 23 26
CA 1,650 1,300 1,500 62 49 56
FL : 1,700 1,950 2,600 80 92 124
us : 3,950 3,850 4,800 164 164 206
Lemons 4/ 3
AZ : 2,800 4,100 4,600 106 156 175
CA : 15,800 14,900 13,500 600 566 513

US : 18,600 19,000 18,100 706 722 688

See footnotes on page A-25.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-24 NASS, USDA


during the spring and summer months. Al] areas of the citrus belt have
recorded above average rainfall through October. Navel harvest is ahead of
last year with good sizes and high quality. The harvest of early oranges is
lagging because few processing plants are open. Grapefruit movement is ahead
of last year with good fruit sizes.

Texas Grapefruit: The forecast of the 1991-92 Texas grapefruit crop remains

unchanged at 115,000 boxes. Harvest is just getting
underway with good quality reported. Texas had no commercial production last
season due to the severe freeze of December 1989.

Texas Citrus: Harvest of grapefruit is underway in the Valley on a limited

basis. Early quality is rated fair to good. Trees are in good
condition showing heavy new growth. Rainfall during October was slightly
below normal prompting the use of irrigation. Bird damage continued to be a
problem for the small crop.

Hazelnuts: The forecast of the U.S. hazelnut crop has been reduced to

25,300 tons, down 3 percent from last month but up 17 percent from
last year. Nut sizes have generally been smaller than normal. Recent rains
have slowed harvest which is now nearing completion.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 5.19 million pounds
for October, 21 percent higher than September but virtually
unchanged from October 1990. Year-to-date fresh sales trai] the same 10-month
period of 1990 by 21 percent. Warm days and light rainfall in major producing

areas were beneficial for papaya development.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,925 acres, 2 percent higher than
Jast month and 7 percent higher than last October. Harvested area, totaling
2,050 acres, was 3 percent lower than September and 15 percent lower than a
year earlier.

California Fruit and Nuts: Fall harvest of fruit and nut crops was extremely

active during October. Soft variety dates were
picked in Riverside County. Boxing of raisin grapes was completed. Late
variety table and wine type grape harvest was active. Good quality was
reported. Other crops with an active harvest include Asian pears, figs,
Olives, pomegranates, and persimmons. Almond, walnut, and pistachio harvests
were active. Virtually all stonefruit were picked by early October.
Kiwifruit harvest had begun by mid-October. The 1990-91 Valencia orange
harvest slowed during the month and was near completion by November 1. The
1991-92 Navel orange harvest began with early varieties in Kern County.
Avocado, grapefruit, and lemon harvests continued.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-11 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Domestic Units)

crop : Yield per Acre Production
an Pere r re crn nnn nnn nn nnn nnn nnn nen nner n=
Unit 1990 Ind 1991 1/: 1990 : Ind 1991 1/

S tatedatetatated 1,000 -~--~---
Oats Bu : 60.1 50.6 357,524 242,526
Barley " : 56.1 55.2 422,196 464,495
All Wheat " : 39.5 34.3 2,736,428 1,980,704

Winter " : 40.7 34.8 2,030,874 1,372,182

Durum " : 34.9 32.5 122,430 103,957

Other Spring " : 36.7 33.4 583,124 504,565
Rye " : 27.1 24.6 10,176 9,761
Sunflower Lb : 1,229 1,306 2,274,405 3,302,950
All Hay Ton : 2.39 2.51 146,985 158,380

Alfalfa " : 3.29 3.38 83,555 87,299

All Other " : 1.75 1.91 63,430 71,081
Dry Edible Peas Cwt 2/: 1,492 1,987 2,372 3,715
Austrian Winter :

Peas " 2/: 1,104 1,217 127 140
Lentils " 2): 841 1,381 875 1,671
Potatoes :

Winter Cwt: 177 214 2,343 2,609

Spring " : 254 233 24,163 20,360

Summer " : 240 236 23,097 23,124
Hops Lb > 1,602 1,615 56,854.8 63,948.0
Apples, Comm'] " : 9,696,800 10,127,500
Peaches " : 2,205,200 2,545,000
Pears Ton: 963.8 882.1
Grapes " : 5,659.9 5,386.8
Sweet Cherries " : 156.7 119.5
Tart Cherries Lb 2 208,800 160,600
Apricots Ton : 122.5 95.1
Nectarines (CA) " : 211.0 210.0
Plums (CA) " : 222.0 210.0
Olives (CA) " : 131.0 60.0
Prunes and Plums :

(Exct CA) ” : 47.8 26.0
Pistachio Nuts :

(CA) Lb : 118,000 48,000
Pecans " : 205,000 271,000
Almonds (CA) " : 660,000 460,000
Walnuts (CA) Ton : 227.0 250.0
Citrus Fruits 3/ : 1990-91 1991-92

Oranges Ton : 7,887 8,191

Lemons " : 722 688

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ Yield in pounds.

3/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and end with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-5 NASS, USDA


California growers to harvest virtually their entire crop during the month,
while the Arkansas and Mississippi harvests drew to completion. Harvest of
the rattoon crop was active in Louisiana and Texas.

Winter Wheat Seeding: Seeding of 1992 crop winter wheat was well along in the
Great Plains by October and past 50 percent (%)
complete for the 19 major producing States. Rains from the Great Plains
through the Ohio Valley early in the month benefitted seedings, while
continued dry weather in Kansas hindered germination and emergence. Seeding
was gaining momentum in California and the Southeast by the end of the month,
and was complete in the northern Great Plains. Nationwide, harvest was
91% complete by November 3, 1 percentage point ahead of both last year and the
5-year average.

Corn for Grain: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 7.49 billion

bushels, up slightly from last month but 6 percent below the
1990 crop. The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at 108.9 bushels, up
0.1 bushel from last month but 9.6 bushels below the 1990 average yield.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION
1982 - 1991

BILLION BUSHELS

ool 7.67 Nie _ 78 149
8001N a a N NIN


Tobacco:

Area harvested, Yield, and Production,

by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1990-91 (continued)

1990

: Ind
: 1991

Prod

1990

uction

Ind
1991

- 1,000 Pounds -

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3b, Dark
Air~Cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt
KY
TN
US
Type 36, Green River
Belt :
KY :
Type 37, VA Sun-Cured :
Belt :
VA
Tota) 35-37
Class 4, Cigar Filler
Type 41, PA Seedleaf
P,

Class 5, Cigar Binder
Class 5a, CT Valley
Binder
Type 51, CT Valley
Broadleaf

Class 5b, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI
I
Type 55, Northern WI
WI
Total 54-55
Total 51-55 :
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper :
Type 61, CT Valley
Shade-Grown
CT
MA
US
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61
All Tobacco

Crop Production
November 1991

-~-- Acres --~--
2,000 2,500
500 590
2,500 3,090
900 1,300

80 80
3,480 4,470
6,400 6,700
570 670

90 110

660 780
4,100 4,200
2,800 3,200
6,900 7,400
7,560 8,180
1,250 1,080
380 370
1,630 1,450
: 15,590 16,330
: 732,710 763,390
A-21

-~- P

2,250
2,040
2,208

2,250

1,275
2,197

2,050

ounds ---

2,100
2,000
2,081

1,950

1,300
2,029

1,950

1,700
1,860
1,723

2,200
1,900

2,070
2,037

1,535
1,540
1,537

1,957

4,500
1,020
5,520

2,025

102
7,647

13,120

969
191
1,160

9,635
4,088

13,723
14,883

2,038
614
2,652

30,655

5,250
1,180
6,430

2,535

104
9,069

13,065

1,139
205
1,344

9,240
6,080

15,320
16,664

1,658
570
2,228

31,957

2,109 1,625,147 1,609,709

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Corn: Plant Populations, Ear Counts, Row Spacing - 1991

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted corn objective yield
surveys in 10 States during 1991. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields were visited monthly from August thought harvest, to obtain specific
counts and measurements. Data in the following tables were obtained from this
survey and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board,
but are intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Plant Population Per Acre,
Selected States, 1987-91 1/

Number of Plants

IL : 23,700 21,900 21,900 22,300 23,700

IN : 21,900 20,700 21,500 21,900 22,400
IA : 21,800 22,100 21,600 22,400 22,800
MI : 21,600 20,500 21,100 20,800 21,800
MN : 22,700 23,600 24,100 23,100 23,900
MO : 18,600 17,800 17,900 18,000 19,900
NE : 22,000 21,900 20,700 21,500 22,200
OH 2 22,600 21,000 21,400 22,500 23,200
so : 15,800 16,200 16,400 16,100 17,560
WI : 22,800 20,400 21,000 21,900 23,400

1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears Per Acre,
Selected States, 1987-91 1/

Number of Ears

IL : 22,600 19,200 21,000 21,900 21,800

IN : 21,700 19,100 20,900 21,700 20,300
IA > 21,600 20,000 21,000 22,500 21,600
MI : 20,300 19,000 21,500 21,200 21,800
MN 1 22,900 21,600 23,800 24,100 24,000
MO : 18,600 16,400 17,400 18,000 18,800
NE > 21,100 21,400 20,300 21,500 21,900
OH : 22,100 20,200 20,900 22,200 20,800
SO : 16,300 14,800 16,900 17,300 18,000
WI : 22,000 17,900 20,800 22,000 22,600

1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 199] A-27 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed:
1990-91 and Average 1/

Condition by State and United States,

State : Average

Percent

: 1980-89
AL 66
AZ 80
AR 69
CA 80
co 79
CT 83
DE 69
FL 74
GA 59
1D 78
IL 78
IN 79
IA 80
KS 76
KY 77
LA 71
ME 86
MD 73
MA 84
MI 85
MN 73
MS 73
MO 77
MT 71

1990

50
77
67
34
76
91
90
62
54
62
80
92
80
73
89
58
96
90
97
91
80
52
78
67

1991

i St

1991

ate : Average : 1990
: 1980-89 :
Percent
80 63
87 88
76 94
84 71
81 81
72 74
63 38
77 95
74 73
78 69
72 85
91 90
62 72
68 63
78 79
64 69
82 57
87 91
75 87
78 84
73 87
78 83
77 86

rv; Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35- 49; extreme drought,

Crop Production
November 1991

A-23

under 35.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


The corn crop was aided by good maturing and harvesting weather during
October. By the first of November, only 7 percent of the corn crop in the

17 major producing States had not been harvested. High plant populations in
most States were a major factor in yields being higher than expected. Growers
in Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska continued experiencing better than expected
yields as drought damage was not as severe as previously thought. Yields in
Jate planted fields in Minnesota were below earlier expectations.

Sorghum for Grain: Production of grain sorghum is forecast at 578 million

bushels, up 2 percent and 1 percent from October 1 and
1990, respectively. The U.S. average yield is placed at 59.4 bushels per
acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month but 3.5 bushels per acre less than last
year.

In Nebraska, where the sorghum harvest finished about three weeks ahead of
normal, yields were better than earlier anticipated. Cold weather during the
last week of October curtailed Colorado's rapid harvest progress; however,
yield prospects improved from last month. South Dakota's yield dipped from
Jast month, as dry weather and an early freeze propelled harvest to
completion. The Texas harvest has been slowed by cold, wet conditions, but
remains ahead of average progress. Hail damaged some fields in the Plains.

Rice: U.S. rice production is forecast at 159 million cwt, 3 percent above

both 1990 and 1989. National average yield is forecast at 5,616 pounds
per acre, up 45 pounds from October and 109 pounds above the 1990 average.
Record high yields are forecast for California and Louisiana, and the
Mississippi forecast matches the State record yield.

Virtually the entire crop in California was harvested during October under
excellent weather conditions, while Texas and southern Louisiana producers
were harvesting second crops. Second crop yields have been higher than
normal.

Fall Potatoes: Production of fall potatoes for 1991 is forecast at

371 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year and 14 percent
above 1989. Area harvested, at 1.17 million acres, is up 1 percent from
1990 and 8 percent above two years ago. The average yield is 316 cwt per
acre, up 14 cwt from a year earlier and 17 cwt above two years ago. Acreage,
yield, and production are each the highest recorded since the fall season
records began in 1949.

Five Eastern States are expected to produce 30.2 million cwt of fall potatoes
in 1991, down 13 percent from last year and 12 percent below 1989. Hot, dry
weather during much of the growing season over the region hurt potato growth.
Area for harvest is estimated at 133,000 acres, up 2 percent from last year,
while the average yield of 227 cwt per acre fell 39 cwt. The Maine crop fell
10 percent from a year ago, New York dropped 12 percent, and Pennsylvania
plummeted 30 percent.

The eight Central States’ production is forecast at 86.2 million cwt this
year, up 22 percent from last year and 30 percent above 1989. Harvested
acreage is estimated at 349,200 acres, a gain of 2 percent from last year and
6 percent above 1989. The average yield of 247 cwt per acre is up 43 cwt and

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-5 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91 1/

Area Harvested Production
State Ind : Ind
1990 199] 1989 : 1990 1991]
- 1,000 Acres - --~ Pounds --- 9 ------- 1,000 Cwt ------
Large Lima :
CA : 23.0 29.0 1,990 2,050 618 458 595
Baby Lima 2
CA : 25.0 34.0 2,200 2,300 728 550 782
Other H
CA : 120.0 74.0 1,750 1,850 2,011 2,100 1,369
All :
CA > 168.0 137.0 1,850 2,004 3,357 3,108 2,746
co H 225.0 195.0 1,900 1,950 3,108 4,275 3,803
ID : 178.0 143.0 2,000 2,050 3,444 3,560 2,932
KS 2/ : 38.0 32.0 1,750 1,700 326 665 544
MI : 330.0 345.0 1,650 1,800 3,975 5,445 6,210
MN : 136.0 120.0 1,300 1,650 910 1,768 1,980
MT 2/ : 13.0 12.3 1,690 1,700 130 220 209
NE : 254.0 210.0 1,970 1,900 3,494 5,004 3,990
NM 2/ : 14.0 16.0 1,650 2,000 280 231 320
NY : 39.5 35.0 1,700 1,300 450 672 455
ND > 550.0 500.0 910 1,450 2,460 5,005 7,250
OR 2/ 3/ : 9.0 7.0 2,000 2,000 180 140
TX 2/ 3/ : 21.0 15.0 1,050 1,400 221 210
UT 2/ : 4.0 5.5 330 400 15 13 22
WA : 47.0 50.0 1,940 2,000 929 912 1,000
WI 2/ 3/ : 10.9 11.4 1,700 1,700 185 194
WY : 49.0 41.0 1,970 1,950 851 965 800
US : 2,086.4 1,875.2 1,554 1,749 23,729 32,429 32,805

1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed.
2/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
3/ Estimates began in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-18 NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested Yield Production

State : : Ind: : Ind

: 1990 : 1991 : 1990 : 1991

- 1,000 Acres - -- Bushels -
AL I/: 22 23 45.0 50.0 1,500 990 1,150
AZ : 2f 2/ 2 2 240 2} 2/
AR : 275 270 66.0 65.0 21,080 18,150 17,550
CA: 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 810 2/ 2/
co : 220 270 47.0 45.0 11,375 10,340 12,150
GA l/ : 40 60 30.0 45.0 2,000 1,200 2,700
IL : 195 170 75.0 74.0 11,620 14,625 12,580
KS : 2,800 3,100 66.0 55.0 198,750 184,800 170,500
KY 1/: 31 25 84.0 78.0 720 2,604 1,950
LA : 128 130 65.0 60.0 6,175 8,320 7,800
MS : 85 90 65.0 70.0 4,505 5,525 6,300
MO 2 520 570 82.0 74.0 45,030 42,640 42,180
NE : 1,400 1,250 77.0 65.0 101,060 107,800 81,250
NM : 50 170 65.0 65.0 12,500 3,250 11,050
NC 1/: 40 25 46.0 55.0 3,240 1,840 1,375
OK : 350 300 44.0 48.0 17,640 15,400 14,400
SC l/: 8 20 33.0 40.0 450 264 800
SD : 260 300 55.0 42.0 10,400 14,300 12,600
TN 1/ 55 70 77.0 73.0 2,025 4,235 5,110
TX 2,600 2,900 52.0 61.0 164,300 135,200 176,900
US 9,079 9,743 62.9 59.4 615,420 571,483 578,345

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Estimates discontinued.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-10 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
{LONG TERM, PALMER)

November 2, 1991
LAST CHART FOR THIS SEASON

WOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL MEATHER FACILITY  sased on protainery roperts|

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as wel) as
evapotranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-2 NASS, USDA



Measured Row Spacing of Soybeans: Percentage Distribution and
Average Width for Selected States, 1989-91 1/ (continued)

State :Number
and : of : 10.04 : . I . : :
Year :Samples: Less 2/: 18.5 : 28.5 +: 34.5 : Greater :Width 2/

:Number Inches

MO 1989: 145 23.8 5.9 7.3 42.9 20.1 25.7
1990: 141 26.8 6.1 71.8 42.5 16.8 24.9
1991: 133 32.6 12.4 5.6 35.2 14.2 22.2

NE 1989: 85 11.8 2.9 2.3 35.3 47.7 31.6
1990: 84 14.3 310 0.6 30.3 51.8 30.7
1991: 81 11.1 419 2.5 39.5 42.0 31.3
OH 1989: 119 31.7 23.2 5.5 35.4 4.2 19.6
1990: 122 43.6 19.8 6.2 28.4 2.0 16.9
1991: 125 48.0 21.2 2.4 23.6 4.8 16.7

1/ Based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective yield
samples.

2/ Broadcast soybeans included as 10.0 inches and less but excluded in
computation of average width.

3/ Reinstated in 1990.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet
Selected States, 1987-91 1/

Number of Pods
AR : 1,064 1,202 1,208 1,588 1,337

IL : 1,491 1,127 1,385 1,460 1,450
IN : 1,426 1,112 1,301 1,396 1,508
1A > 1,427 1,149 1,316 1,330 1,451
KS 2/ : 1,126 961
LA : 1,220 1,291 1,278 1,179 1,447
MN : 1,545 1,099 1,373 1,454 1,478
MS : 1,110 1,109 1,118 1,113 1,112
MO > 1,353 1,254 1,298 1,318 1,416
NE : 15265 1,232 1,279 1,320 1,423
OH : 1,391 1,187 1,115 1,298 1,313

1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ Kansas reinstated in objective yield program in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-30 NASS, USDA


Crop

Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

Metric Tons

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Rice
Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts for Nuts
All Cotton

Upland

Amer-Pima
Cottonseed
Dry Edible Beans
Potatoes

Fall

Total
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for

Sugar and Seed
Hazelnuts

WNYAWA

79.

744
-95
17
+29
23
71
71
-85

74

33.
32.
49
44.

89
88

86
42

VNYAWH

35.
34.
36
45.

77.

84
73
+29
+25
-82
73
72
+96

96

43
09

56
70

201,509,210
14,516,340

7,027,010

52,415,690

1,634,190
3,374,590
3,296,540

78,050
5,412,720
1,470,950

15,989,450
18,239,410

737,150

24,982,050

25,524,550

19,690

189, 986,040
14,395,220
7,153,970
52,623, 150
2,238,590
3,841,720
3,745,030
96,690
6,181,100
1,470,770

742,850
24,878,630

28,774,990
23,590

190,150,640
14,690,640
7,211,390
53,392,530
2,241,970
3,965,820
3,871,310
94,510
6,378,230
1,488,010

16,828,140
18,918,880

730,150
25,562,650

28,149,030
22,950

Crop Production
November 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

Crop Stn nn nner ener nner nar nr nn nnn nnn tr rrr nner tren nen
1990 1991 1990 Ind 1991
Hectares
Corn : 30,016,260 30,719,610 27,094,800 27,818,390
Sorghum : 4,263,410 4,470,210 3,674,180 3,942,890
Rice : 1,168,340 1,161,460 1,138,390 1,145,680
Soybeans : 23,389,060 24,190,340 22,869,840 23,728,190
Peanuts 2/ : 744,630 805,330 732,290 794,610
All Cotton : 4,997,150 5,706,610 4,747,670 5,454,730
Upland : 4,903,550 5,606,980 4,655,760 5,356,190
Amer-Pima : 93,600 99,630 91,910 98,540
Dry Edible Beans : 881,660 782,270 844,350 758,870
Potatoes 3
Fall : 480,160 484,370 471,870 474,940
Total : 566,440 567,610 554,670 554,950
Tobacco : 296,520 308,940
Sugarbeets : 566,320 568,870 556,930 561,020
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 321,400 362,280
Area Planted Area Harvested 1/
1990 1991 2/ 1990 Ind 1991 2/
Hectares
Oats : 4,218,080 3,502,190 2,405,880 1,940,890
Barley : 3,326,960 3,618,330 3,046,910 3,404,660
All Wheat + 31,258,660 28,290,260 28,038,140 23,347,780
Winter : 23,046,290 20,659,020 20,194,440 15,943,170
Ourum > 1,464,740 1,316, 460 1,419,250 1,293,790
Other Spring : 6,767,630 6,314,780 6,424,450 6,110,820
Rye : 657,620 676,240 151,760 160,260
Flaxseed : 105,220 123,430 102,390 118,170
Sunflower : 770,930 1,050,170 749,080 1,023,870
All Hay : 24,911,500 25,549,700
Alfalfa : 10,279,530 10,459,210
All Other : 14,631,970 15,090,490
Dry Edible Peas : 67,180 76,890 64,350 75,680
Austrian Winter Peas : 5,460 5,260 4,650 4,650
Lentils : 43,710 49,780 42,090 48,970
Potatoes :
Winter : 5,460 5,340 5,340 4,940
Spring : 38,930 36,060 38,490 35,370
Summer : 41,890 41,840 38,970 39,700
Sweetpotatoes : 38,000 32,620 36,220 31,480
Hops : 14,370 16,030

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, i.e., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-6 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Ares Harvested Production

: 1990

-~--- Acres ----- --- Pounds --
cT : 1,820 1,750 1,652 1,598 2,793 3,007 2,797
FL : 6,900 6,900 2,760 2,250 17,755 19,044 15,525
GA : 43,000 40,000 2,415 2,050 87,200 103,845 82,000
IN + 6,400 7,200 2,100 2,100 13,237 13,440 15,120
KY : 194,150 223,300 2,278 2,147 366,551 442,253 479,385
MD : 7,100 7,400 1,360 1,450 8,103 9,656 10,730
MA : 470 480 1,713 1,615 746 805 775
MO 1/ : 2,600 3,000 2,280 2,150 5,450 5,928 6,450
NC : 284,200 278,900 2,251 2,107 541,056 639,639 587,575
OH : 9,700 10,500 1,950 2,150 15,925 18,915 22,575
PA : 10,000 10,500 1,978 1,914 17,925 19,780 20,095
sc : 51,000 51,000 2,155 2,200 103,680 109,905 112,200
TN : 53,590 60,680 2,094 2,023 79,820 112,218 122,778
VA : 53,180 52,480 2,074 2,160 93,814 110,269 113,344
Wod/: 1,700 1,900 1,600 1,600 1,885 2,720 3,040

WI’: 6,900 += 73400-15989 2,070 11,248 13723 15,320
US:

732,710 763,390 2,218 2,109

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

1,609,709

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-19 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested Production
State :
1,000 Acres --
AL : 240 220 14,580 13,920 17,600
AZ 1/ : 7 5 1,885 1,120 825
AR I/: 73 80 7,076 6,935 8,400
CA : 160 130 29,600 25,600 20,800
co : 830 850 134,850 128,650 131,750
CT 2/ :
OE : 172 168 13,300 19,780 16,800
FL I/: 75 75 5,920 5,325 5,250
GA : 550 §50 52,250 37,400 55,000
ID 1/: 30 5 6,250 3,900 5,625
IL 10,400 11,100 1,322,250 1,320,800 1,221,000
IN 5,450 5,650 , 600 703,050 531,100
IA 12,400 11,800 1,445,500 1,562,400 1,380,600
KS : 1,450 1,600 155,000 188,500 200,000
KY : 1,200 1,250 136 , 880 120,600 112,500
Ke an 2 186 220 13,490 21,576 20,900
MD : 450 460 44,000 53,100 39,100
MA 2/ :
MI : 2,070 2,300 222,610 238,050 257,600
MN 2 6,150 5,900 700,000 762,600 708,000
MS 1/ : 140 150 9,800 11,200 11,250
MO : 1,960 2,050 219,840 205, 800 205,000
MT 1V/ : 9 14 320 855 1,260
NE 2 > 7,300 7,900 847,000 934,400 1,003,300
NJ T/ : 75 78 7,242 8,850 8,736
NM I/ : 55 60 9,600 7,975 9,300
: 620 690 53,010 60,760 63,480
NC : 1,070 950 88,350 72,760 85,500
ND : 460 600 34,875 36,800 51,000
OH : 3,450 3,550 342,200 417,450 326,600
OK I/ : 88 95 9,360 10,032 10,925
OR I/: 18 22 3,520 2,700 3,300
Rt ji : 970 950 98,880 109,610 68,400
2/:
Sc : 320 245 30,940 14,400 21,560
sD : 3,000 3,250 190,800 234,000 237,250
1TM : 510 510 56,710 43,860 44,880
TX : 1,450 1,600 148,400 130,500 179,200
UT 1/ : 19 0 2,640 2,660 2,800
VT 2/:
VA : 365 320 40,150 36,500 27,200
WA T/ : 80 88 15,750 14,000 14,960
Wioid/: 50 55 4,370 5,250 3,850
WI : 3,000 3,100 310,800 354,000 368,900
Wy d/: 50 3,895 6,000 4,400
US : 66,952 68,740 7,525,493 7,933,068 7,485,901

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1992 A-9 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruits - Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

s-CA_& AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA Desert
85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples-90;
tangerines-CA & AZ-75, FL-95.

2/ Net_lbs. per box: oran
& AZ-64, CA Other-67, F

ia

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including smal] quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

5/ Due to the severe freeze of December 1989, TX had no commercial production

for the 1990-91 season.

6/ The first forecast for CA grapefruit "Other Areas" will be as of April 1,

US GRAPEFRUIT PRODUCTION
1983-1992

0 MILLION TONS

ee
2.1 21 21
2.0
2.0 FS LOSS ) Poe a a
1.8
1.6 a T

CA "Other Areas” not included

Crop Production
November 1991

T T T T T
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

YEAR

A-25

T f
1989 1990 1991 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


National

C r op Agricultural

Statistics

Production Service

United States

Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released November 12, 1991, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts
refer to November 1, 1991.

Cotton Up 3 Percent

All Cotton production for 1991 is forecast at 18.2 million bales, up 3 percent
from October 1, and up 18 percent from last year. Beneficial weather during
October permitted rapid crop development. Louisiana expects a record high
yield and production.

Corn for Grain production is forecast at 7.49 billion bushels, up slightly
from last month but 6 percent below the 1990 crop. The U.S. average yield per
acre is forecast at 108.9 bushels. The corn crop was aided by good maturing
and harvesting weather during October. By the first of November, only

7 percent of the corn crop in the 17 major producing States had not been
harvested.

Soybean production is forecast at 1.96 billion bushels, up 1 percent from
October and 2 percent above the 1990 production. If realized, this level
would be the fifth highest on record. Yield is expected to average

33.5 bushels per acre, 0.5 bushel above the October forecast. As of
November 3, 86 percent of the soybeans had been harvested in the major
producing States.

Sorghum for Grain production is forecast at 578 million bushels, up 2 percent
from October 1 and up 1 percent from 1990. The U.S. average yield, at

59.4 bushels per acre, is 1.2 bushels higher than last month but off

3.5 bushels per acre from last season. Harvest is complete, or nearly so, in
most States. Yields have turned out better than previously expected in many
areas.

All Tobacco production is forecast at 1.61 billion pounds, 2 percent below the
forecast a month ago and 1 percent less than last year's output.

Fall Potato production is forecast at a record high 371 million cwt, up

5 percent from last year and 14 percent over 1989. Acreage was up I percent
from last year, while favorable growing weather in the West pushed yields
higher.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
Information call (202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (11-91)




Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by Seasonal Group, and State, and United States, 1989-91

Seasonal : Area Harvested : Yield Production
Group z a

and

State : 1990 : 1991 : 1990: 1991 : i989 : 1990 : 1991

: - 1,000 Acres - --- Cwt ---
Winter 1/ :
CA : 5.5 4.6 230 245 1,320 1,265 1,127
FL : 7.7 7.6 140 195 1,444 1,078 1,482
Total : 13.2 12.2 177 214 2,764 2,343 2,609
Spring 1/
AL : 5.7 3.5 150 140 1,296 855 490
AZ : 6.9 6.0 260 290 1,827 1,794 1,740
CA 3 22.5 20.7 375 375 7,875 8,438 7,763
FL 2
Hastings : 28.7 27.0 240 190 5,460 6,888 5,130
Other : 8.3 8.4 220 175 1,400 1,826 1,470
LA 2/ : 27
NC : 16.2 17.0 200 175 2,184 3,240 2,975
TX : 6.8 4.8 165 165 783 1,122 792
Total > 95.1 87.4 254 233 20,852 24,163 20,360
Summer 1/
AL 6.8 6.8 160 140 1,275 1,088 952
CA 5.3 5.0 330 325 2,196 1,749 1,625
co 7.2 7.4 295 320 2,144 2,124 2,368
DE 8.2 7.7 245 160 1,152 2,009 1,232
IL 3.1 4.4 270 250 858 837 1,100
TA 1.0 1.3 160 170 263 160 221
MD 1.8 1.7 180 140 315 324 238
MI 11.5 11.5 250 250 2,300 2,875 2,875
MN 6.1 7.3 300 295 1,890 1,830 2,154
MQ 3/ 5.8 6.2 165 210 957 1,302
NE 2.7 2.4 245 270 598 662 648
NJ 4.4 4.0 230 190 888 1,012 760
NM 10.0 10.0 340 350 4,025 3,400 3,500
NC : 1.4 1.4 100 110 126 140 154
IN 2/ : 60
1X : 10.0 10.0 195 240 2,625 1,950 2,400
VA > 11.0 11.0 180 145 1,440 1,980 1,595
Total 2 96.3 98.1 240 236 22,155 23,097 23,124
See footnotes on page A-13. -~-continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1991 A-12 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

: 1990 : 1991 :

: -- 1,000 Acres -- -~- Pounds ---

AR: 1,200.0 1,340.0 5,000 5,300 63,840 60,000
CA: 385.0 315.0 7,600 8,000 32,390 29,260
LA: «545.0 «515.0 © 4860 © 4, 900-21, 488 26,469
MS: 250.0 245.0 5,700 5,700 13,395 143250
MO1/: 80.0 98.0 4.700 4,900 4,108 3,760
TX”: 353.0 318.0 6,000 5,900 19,266 215180
US: 0 2,831.0 5,507 154,487

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Classes, United States, 1989~91

Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All
1,000 Cwt
1989 : 109,161 41,441 3,885 154,487
1990 : 108,220 44,920 1,779 154,919
1991 1/ : 113,336 44,843 805 158,984

1/ Indicated November 1, 1991, rice class forecasts are based on a five year
average of yield differences by class and current acreage estimates.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 199] A-11 NASS, USDA


For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 2.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of

3 that the current production forecast of 7.49 billion bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 2.5 percent or approximately
187 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
that the difference will not exceed 4.3 percent or approximately 322 million
bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of
the differences between the November 1 forecast and the final estimates.

Using corn again as an example, changes between the November 1 forecast and
the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 84 million bushels,
ranging from 2 million to 258 million bushels. The November 1 forecast has
been below the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply
that the November 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or
overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts
have been below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts
:Root Mean Square Error 10-Year Record of
porcec meter ee rcnccen Differences Between Forecast
390% Confidence and Final Estimate

Crop and : Level =: :--------~-~---~----~-----~-------
Unit : Percent :------------ Quantity No. of Years
:Percent: Quant

Feed Grains 1/ Mt: 1.9 3.3
Corn for Grain Bu: 2.5 4.3
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 4.1 7.0
Rice Cwt: 2.4 4.1
Soybeans for :

Beans Bu: 3.2 5.6
Cotton Bales 2/: 3.6 6.2
Fal] Potatoes Cwt : 2.2 3.8
Dry Edible :

Beans Cwt : 3.5 6.1

1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats, and barley.
2/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-13 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS, AVAILABLE WATER IN 6-FT. SOIL. PROFILE)

AN
i)

‘© }

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot
profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging
below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long
term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought
severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-1 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Varieties Grown - 199]

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts potato objective yield
surveys in 1] major fall producing States. These 11 States accounted for

94 percent of the 1990 U. S. fall production. All producing areas of each
State are represented in the sample in proportion to planted acreage of
potatoes. Variety information in the table below is derived from data
reported. These data are intended to provide current information on varieties
and are not designated as official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics
Board.

Fall Potatoes: Percent of Major Varieties Planted,
Selected States, 1991 Crop

: First Second
BS) a
: Variety Percent Variety Percent
co : Centennial Russet 47.5: Norkotah 20.1
ID : Russet Burbank 90.1 : Shepody 3.9
ME : Superior 22.5 : Russet Burbank 18.3
MI : Russet Burbank 16.1 : Onoway 12.9
MN : Russet Burbank 32.9 : Norchip 21.3
NY : Norwis 30.7. : Monona 22.2
ND : Norchip 47.5 : Russet Burbank 19.8
OR : Russet Burbank 62.3 : Shepody 18.1
PA : Atlantic 26.2 : Katahdin 15.9
WA : Russet Burbank 69.2 : Shepody 10.8
WI : Russet Burbank 34.6 : Norkotah 24.8
Third Fourth

Variety Variety

co : Russet Nugget 9.6 : Russet Burbank 8.3
ID : Frontier Russet 2.7: Norkotah 1.1
ME : Shepody 9.8 : Ontario 8.6
MI : Ontario 12.5 : Atlantic 11.8
MN : Norland 13.9 : Red Pontiac 11.0
NY : Superior 13.9 : Atlantic 5.8
ND : Norland 7.5 : Frito Lay Varieties 5.1
OR : Norkotah 11.8 : Frontier Russet 1.8
PA : Norwis 12.2 : Norchip 10.5
WA : Norkotah 8.1: Norchip 3.4
WI Atlantic 8.6 : Norland 8.0
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1991 A-31 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

Metric Tons

Oats 2.16 1.81 5,189,450 3,520,260
Barley 3.02 2.97 9,192,230 10,113,180
AY] Wheat 2.66 2.31 74,473,360 53,905,930

Winter 2.74 2.34 55,271,330 37,344,670

Durum 2.35 2.19 3,332,000 2,829,250

Other Spring 2.47 2.25 15,870,030 13,732,010

e 1.70 1.55 258,480 247,940
Sunflower 1.38 1.46 1,031,650 1,498,190
All Hay 5.35 5.62 133,342,550 143,679,920

Alfalfa 7.37 7.57 75,799,820 79,196,320

All Other 3.93 4.27 57,542,730 64,483,600
Dry Edible Peas 1.67 2.23 107,590 168,510
Austrian Winter Peas : 1.24 1.37 5,760 6,350
Lentils : +94 1.55 39,690 75,800
Potatoes :

Winter : 19.90 23.96 106,280 118,340

Spring : 28.48 26.11 1,096,020 923,510

Summer : 26.88 26.42 1,047,660 1,048,890
Hops : 1.79 1.81 25,790 29,010
Apples, Comm'l : 4,398,390 4,593,760
Peaches : 1,000,260 1,154,390
Pears : 874,340 800,230
Grapes : 5,134,570 4,886,820
Sweet Cherries : 142,160 108,410
Tart Cherries : 94,710 72,850
Apricots : 111,130 86,270
Nectarines (CA) : 191,420 190,510
Plums (CA) : 201,400 190,510
Olives (CA) : 118,840 54,430
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) : 43,360 23,590
Pistachio Nuts (CA): 53,520 21,770
Pecans : 92,990 122,920
Almonds (CA) : 299,370 208,650
Walnuts (CA) : 205,930 226,800
Citrus Fruits 2/ : 1990-91 1991-92

Oranges : 7,154,970 7,430,750

Lemons : 654,990 624,140

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-8 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91 1/

2 -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- 0 ------- 1,000 Tons ---~--

CA : 167.0 150.0 26.1 24.0 4,614 4,359 3,600
co : 40.0 40.2 23.6 23.4 912 944 941
ID : 186.0 195.0 26.0 25.5 4,038 4,836 4,973
MI : 157.0 167.0 20.8 15.5 2,565 3,266 2,589
MN : 364.0 361.0 14.8 18.0 5,456 5,387 6,498
MT : 55.1 56.1 22.5 23.3 1,033 1,240 1,307
NE : 71.0 78.2 21.0 20.0 1,169 1,491 1,564
ND > 193.2 190.0 14.4 18.0 2,828 2,782 3,420
OH : 19.2 20.2 18.5 15.0 199 355 303
OR : 16.7 19.0 29.2 29.0 391 488 551
TX : 41.0 40.5 24.8 24.5 743 1,017 992
WY : 63.8 66.9 20.5 20.5 1,139 1,308 1,371
Oth 2/ 2.2 2.2 29.5 31.4 44 65 69

N
w
iS
3
°

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest, except for overwintered spring

planted beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA. Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested Yield Production 1/
State : : Ind : : Ind : : : Ind
: 1990 : 1991 > 1990 : 199) > 1989 ; 1990 : 1991
- 1,000 Acres - ---- Ton§ ---- 0 -------- 1,000 Tons ~-----
FL 434.0 440.0 35.5 34.3 13,188 15,407 15,092
HI : 79.0 75.2 85.1 83.5 7,277 6,723 6,279
LA > 245.0 345.0 20.6 25.0 8,083 5,056 8,625
Tx 36.2 35.0 26.2 29.5 878 950 1,033
US 794.2 895.2 35.4 34.7 29,426 28,136 31,029
1/ Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1991 A-22 NASS, USDA


being plowed under in some areas. In late October, cotton condition was
mostly good, and Arkansas and Mississippi reported 18 percent and 29 percent
of the crop in excellent condition, respectively. On November 3, Arkansas was
the only State in the region with harvest exceeding the average pace.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 3.35 million bales, down 8 percent from 1990. The yields in
this region are expected to average 1,189 pounds per acre, 26 pounds above the
1990 yield. Beneficial weather permitted cotton development during October.
Defoliation activity continued during October in Arizona and California and
later in the month, harvest was active. Stalks were being turned under for
pink bollworm control. On November 3, 62 percent of the Arizona crop was
harvested, 4 percent ahead of the average, and 55 percent of the California
crop was harvested which equaled the average.

The forecast in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and
South Carolina) puts production at 2.13 million bales, 6 percent above the
October 1 forecast and 79 percent above the 1990 production. Cotton harvest
continued in these States and Georgia was 62 percent harvested, while

91 percent of the Alabama crop was harvested.

Ginnings totaled 8,473,700 running bales prior to November 1, compared with
7,955,236 running bales for the same date last year, and 5,806,266 running
bales in 1989.

Cottonseed: Production for 1991, based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio,
is expected to total 7.03 million tons, up 18 percent from the
1990 production of 5.97 million tons,

Dry Edible Beans: The 1991 crop of dry beans is forecast at a record high

32.8 million cwt, 1 percent above the October 1 forecast
and 1 percent above last year. Area for harvest, estimated at 1.88 million
acres, is down 10 percent from a year ago but yields are projected at a record
high 1,749 pounds per acre, a gain of 195 pounds per acre from last year.

Michigan dry bean yields were record high after nearly perfect growing and
harvest seasons. The State's production is placed at 6.21 million cwt, up

4 percent from the October 1 forecast. Harvest was completed two weeks ahead
of schedule with less abandonment than expected. North Dakota farmers have
produced 7.25 million cwt of dry beans, up 45 percent from last year and
signalling an end to three years of drought. Yields in Nebraska's panhandle
turned out lower than last year but were slightly higher elsewhere in the
State. Harvest in Wyoming and Colorado was completed by the end of October, a
little ahead of normal. Idaho and Washington bean harvests were completed in
October. In California, harvest was nearly complete by the end of October
under good weather conditions.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 1.61 billion pounds,

2 percent below the forecast a month ago and 1 percent under last
year's output. Since October 1, prospective output declined for the
flue-cured crop but improved for the burley crop. Overall, the outlook rose
in 16 of the producing States, declined in three States, and remained
unchanged in the remainder. The lower production from a year ago resulted

Crop Production Agricultura] Statistics Board
November 1991 B-8 NASS, USDA


from lower yields which more than offset a 4 percent acreage increase. Yields
are expected to average 2,109 pounds per acre compared with 2,218 pounds in
1990.

Flue-cured production is now projected to be 864 million pounds, 4 percent
less than last month's forecast and down 8 percent from a year ago. Yield per
acre, at 2,129 pounds, is 124 pounds short of last year's average yield.

Acres for harvest are off 3 percent from 1990. Auction markets are now closed
except for a clean up sale scheduled for November 13.

Burley output is now expected to total 654 million pounds, 1 percent above the
outlook a month earlier and a 10 percent increase from a year ago. The change
from last year reflects a 14 percent acreage increase which was moderated by
lower yields. The expected average yield increased 29 pounds per acre from a
month earlier, but is expected to be off 89 pounds from 1990.

Kentucky burley is 32 percent stripped, ahead of both last year and the 5-year
average. Favorable weather helped stripping advance at a fast pace. Stripped
tobacco was rated mostly good to fair with light houseburn.

The dark fire-cured crop is forecast at 32.5 million pounds, off fractionally
from expectations a month ago and 7 percent below last year. The decline from
a year ago represents a 233 pound per acre lower yield, but the decline is
limited by a 4 percent acreage increase.

Southern Maryland type tobacco is now expected to total 17.8 million pounds,
up 5 percent from the forecast a month aga and 9 percent above a year earlier.
This year's larger crop is coming from a 5 percent increase in the area for
harvest and a higher average yield. An average yield of 1,586 pounds per acre
is expected compared with the previous year's average of 1,525 pounds.

The dark air-cured tobacco crop of 9.07 million pounds is up 19 percent from
1990. Acreage is 28 percent higher but the yield is expected to average
168 pounds per acre less.

All cigar-type production is expected to total 32.0 million pounds, 4 percent
more than in 1990. Filler production is off fractionally. Binder output is
up 12 percent. Wrapper output is expected to drop 16 percent.

Sugarbeets: The 28.2 million ton sugarbeet production forecast is 3 percent
above the October ] forecast and 2 percent greater than last
year's harvest. The increase from a year ago is resulting from higher yields
and increased acreage. Yields are expected to average 20.3 tons per acre
nationally, compared with 20.0 tons in 1990. The area harvested of
1.39 million acres exceeds last year by 1 percent. The major increases in
production from a year ago occurred in Minnesota and North Dakota, while the
major decreases were in California and Michigan.

Minnesota's harvest is nearly complete. Some acreage was lost due to heavy
snows and freezing. Yields are higher than expected earlier.

In Idaho, a prolonged growing season was beneficial to yields. Harvest was
64 percent complete by October 27, slightly behind last year's pace.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-9 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain:

State
and
Year

+ Number :

of

: Samples:or less: 32.5 :

: Number

IL 1989: 230

IN

IA

MI

MN

MO

NE

OH

sD

1990:
1991:

1989:
1990:
1991:

1989:
1990:
1991:

1989:
1990:
1991:

1989:
1990:
1991:

1989:
1990:
1991:

1989:
1990:
1991:

1989:
1990:
1991:

1989:
1990:
1991:

1989:
1990:
1991:

236
235

170
168
171

210
209
228

79
84
69

177
170
187

113
116
109

189
196
213

145
154
151

87
98
79

124
114
106

Percentage Distributions by Row Width and Average

Row Width for Selected States, 1989-91

Row Width

30.5 : 30.6-: 32.6- : 34.
34.5 : 36.

WNO FEE YKMO HUW HRW

Rae

ll.
li.
13.

Hw

waw

wo aware

Hw

emo Cmm wobNy

Heo

Nw
POM auf

ao

mm NHRD
WMSo WOU WOO

Nos

»

ooo

13.
14.
1l.

10.
8.
12.

(Inches) 1/

§

9.1
12.9

8.

oo

AYO DTGWwW AWN UMW MMM WRO WMD

oo

tAverage
: 36.6-: 38.6- : 40.6 &: Row
> 38.5 : 40.5 :Greater: Width

17.4 3.0 4 32.6
17.0 2.5 0 32.5
13.2 3.8 0 32.2
10.6 2.4 1.2 31.9
9.5 1.2 6 31.7
6.4 2.9 0 31.6
29.0 10.5 -0 33.8
23.9 6.2 0 33.3
30.3 9.6 1.3 34.0
12.7 3.8 2.5 31.7
6.0 1.2 0 31.2
2.9 0 0 30.7
14.1 3.4 6 32.1
11.8 2.9 6 31.9
13.9 4.8 7) 32.2
16.8 9.7 3.5 33.5
24.1 6.9 9 33.3
16.5 3.7 9 32.7
22.2 6.9 1.6 33.9
20.9 6.6 5 33.7
19.7 5.6 5 33.7
7.6 5.5 1.4 31.6
9.7 3.3 0 31.4
8.6 3.3 7 31.2
48.3 16.1 1.2 36.1
46.9 13.3 0 35.8
44.3, 13.9 0 35.7
39.5 19.4 1.6 35.8
36.0 9.7 1.8 34.7
29.2 13.2 1.9 34.2

Spacings based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective

yield terminations.

Crop Production
November 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production
Crop Peco ct eee cnc nnn nnn nnn een ene oo een
and : : : : Indicated 1991
Unit : 1990 :Ind 1991 ; 1990 = ;---------
: : : : Oct l
~--- 1,000
Corn for Grain Bul :)—«118.5 108.9 7,933,068 7,479,421 7,485,901
Sorghum for Grain “ : 62.9 59.4 571,483 566,715 578,345

Rice Cwt 1/: 5,507 5,616 154,919 157,718 158,984
Soybeans for :

Beans Bu: 34.1 33.5 1,925,947 1,933,570 1,961,840
Peanuts for Nuts Lb : 1,991 2,517 3,602,770 4,935,250 4,942,700
All Cotton Bale I/: 634 649 15,499.4 17,644.9 18,214.9

Upland "Uf: 632 645 15,140.9 17,200.8 17,780.8

Amer-Pima “od)/: 758 856 358.5 444.1 434.1
Cottonseed Ton : 5,966.5 6,813.5 7,030.8
Dry Edible Beans Cwt 1/: 1,554 1,749 32,429 32,425 32,805
Potatoes :

Fall Cwt 302 316 352,507 370,997

Total " : 293 304 402,110 417,090
Tobacco Lb + 2,218 2,109 1,625,147 1,637,706 1,609,709
Sugarbeets Ton : 20.0 20.3 27,538 27,424 28,178
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed "“ Hy 35.4 34.7 28,136 31,719 31,029
Pasture and :

Range Feed 2/ Pct 71 72
Hazelnuts Ton 21.7 26.0 25.3

1/ Yield in pounds.
2/ Pasture and range feed condition as of first of month. The 1980-89
average is 74 percent.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-4 NASS, USDA


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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-16 NASS, USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative
Beans, Dry Edible.......... ccc cece eee cece eect ees A-18 B- 8
Citrus Fruit........... A-24 B-10
Corn Cropping Practices A-27
Corn for Grain........... A- 9 B- 4
Corn for Grain Row Width. A-28
Cotton........ cee eee eee A-17 B- 7
Cottonseed... A-16 B- 8
Crop Moisture Maps B- 1
Crop Summary...... A~ 3
Hazelnuts. . A~26 B-11
PapayaS........ secs e cece cee A~26 B-1]
Pasture & Range Feed Condition A-23 B-10
Peanuts for Nuts.............. A-16 B- 7
Potatoes.............. A-12 B- 5
Potatoes, Area Planted. A-14
Potatoes, Varieties Grown A-31
Reliability Statement.... B-13 B-12
Rice.............065 A-11 B- 5
Sorghum for Grain. A-10 B- 5
Soybeans for Beans.. A-15 B- 6
Soybeans, Row Spacing A-29
Sugarbeets...........06.005 A-22 B- 9
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed. A-22 B-10
Tobacco, by Class and Type... . A-20 B- 8
Tobacco by States........ 0. cece eee eee eee eee eee e eee ees A-19
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-14 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Production

Ind 1991 nd 1991
- 1,000 Acres -~ - Bushels --
AL : 440 370 = 17.0 23.0 11,970 7,480 8,510
AR : 3,350 3,100 27.0 27.0 75,200 90,450 83,700
DE : 199 250 34.0 31.0 7,250 6,766 7,750
FL I/: 75 40 19.0 26.0 2,640 1,425 1,040
GA : 700 620 14.0 26.0 28,600 9,800 16,120
IL : 9,100 9,100 39.0 37.0 354,000 354,900 336,700
IN : 4,180 4,430 41.0 39.0 166,075 171,380 172,770
IA: 7,900 8,700 41.5 40.0 322,920 327,850 348,000
KS : 1,950 1,950 24.0 19.0 49,950 46,800 37,050
KY : 1,220 1,130 32.0 30.0 36,855 39,040 33,900
LA : 1,750 1,390 24.0 27.0 38,500 42,000 37,530
MD : 495 500 36.0 31.0 16,500 17,820 15,500
MI : 1,140 1,390 38.0 37.0 38,880 43,320 51,430
MN : 4,600 5,350 39.0 37.0 185,000 179,400 197,950
MS : 1,900 1,800 21.0 24.0 40,000 39,900 43,200
MO : 4,150 4,450 30.0 30.0 121,800 124,500 133,500
NE : 2,360 2,450 34.5 33.0 81,920 81,420 80,850
NJ U/ : 108 123 37.0 35.0 3,616 3,996 4,305
NC: = 1,350 1,300 24.0 26.0 41,850 32,400 33,800
ND : 495 590 26.0 31.0 13,860 12,870 18,290
OH : 3,480 3,880 39.0 36.0 125,370 135,720 139,680
OK 1/ : 220 230 = 21.0 21.0 6,840 4,620 4,830
PAL/: 275 305 41.0 33.0 10,370 11,275 10,065
Sc : 750 640 «18.5 22.0 20,160 13,875 14,080
SD: 1,920 2,250 28.0 27.0 48,880 53,760 60,750
TN : 1,250 1,050 27.0 27.0 29,760 33,750 28,350
1X : 200 180 25.0 29.0 12,450 5,000 5,220
VA : §25 515 32.0 28.0 17,280 16,800 14,420
WI : 430 550 41.0 41.0 15,170 17,630 22,550
US : 56,512 58,633 34.1 33.5 1,923,666 1,925,947 1,961,840

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-15 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested Production 1/

-- 1,000 Acres -- --- Pounds -- = ------ 1,000 Bales 2/ -~----
Upland
AL 378.0 425.0 476 565 383.0 375.0 500.0
AZ 348.0 359.0 1,110 1,217 649.0 805.0 910.0
AR 750.0 950.0 692 783 851.0 1,081.0 1,550.0
cA 1,090.0 930.0 1,204 1,213 2,661.0 2,734.0 2,350.0
FL 3/ 36.0 50.0 640 720 29.0 48.0 75.0
GA 350.0 425.0 555 779 342.0 405.0 690.0
KS 3/ 1.2 1.8 280 320 0.2 0.7 1.2
LA 790.0 800.0 715 810 868.0 1,177.0 1,350.0
MS : 1,220.0 1,240.0 728 832 1,555.0 1,850.0 2,150.0
MO : 235.0 275.0 641 698 269.0 314.0 400.0
NM : 62.0 63.0 735 686 80.0 95.0 90.0
NC 200.0 456.0 631 663 141.0 263.0 630.0
OK 370.0 420.0 496 366 173.0 382.0 320.0
Sc 154.0 208.0 452 715 154.0 145.0 310.0
TN 515.0 615.0 461 492 476.0 495.0 630.0
1X : 5,000.0 6,000.0 477 464 2,870.0 4,965.0 5,800.0
VA 3/: 3 17.5 562 675 2.7 6.2 24.6
US 2 11,504.5  13,235.3 632 645 11,503.9 15,140.9 17,780.8
Amer-Pima:
AZ : 124.0 104.5 751 919 477.0 194.0 200.0
CA 25.5 60.0 1,080 1,040 40.2 57.4 130.0
MS 1.3 1.0 591 528 1.0 1.6 1.1
NM 19.3 20.0 609 600 44.5 24.5 25.0
TX 57.0 58.0 682 646 129.0 81.0 78.0
US 227.1 243.5 758 856 691.7 358.5 434.1
All
AL 378.0 425.0 476 565 383.0 375.0 500.0
AZ 472.0 463.5 1,016 1,150 1,126.0 999.0 1,110.0
AR 750.0 950.0 692 783 851.0 1,081.0 1,550.0
CA > 1,115.5 990.0 1,201 1,202 2,701.2 2,791.4 2,480.0
FL 3/: 36.0 50.0 640 720 29.0 48.0 75.0
GA : 350.0 425.0 555 779 342.0 405.0 690.0
KS 3/ 1.2 1.8 280 320 0.2 0.7 1.2
LA 790.0 800.0 715 810 868.0 1,177.0 1,350.0
MS 1,221.3 1,241.0 728 832 1,556.0 1,851.6 2,151.1
MO 235.0 275.0 641 698 269.0 314.0 400.0
NM 81.3 83.0 706 665 124.5 119.5 115.0
NC 200.0 456.0 631 663 141.0 263.0 630.0
OK 370.0 420.0 496 366 173.0 382.0 320.0
Sc 154.0 208.0 452 715 154.0 145.0 310.0
TN 515.0 615.0 461 492 476.0 495.0 630.0
1X 5,057.0 6,058.0 479 466 2,999.0 5,046.0 5,878.0
VA 3/ 5.3 17.5 562 675 2.7 6.2 24.6
US 11,731.6 13,478.8 634 649 12,195.6 15,499.4 18,214.9

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. Net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1990-91
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested ]/

1,000 Acres

Corn : 74,171 75,909 66,952 68,740

Sorghum : 10,535 11,046 9,079 9,743
Rice 2 2,887.0 2,870.0 2,813.0 2,831.0
Soybeans : 57,795 59,775 56,512 58,633
Peanuts : = 1,840.0 1,990.0 1,809.5 1,963.5
All Cotton : 12,348.1 14,101.2 11,731.6 13,478.8
Upland : 12,116.8 13,855.60 11,504.5 13,235.3
Amer~Pima : 231.3 246.2 227.1 243.5
Ory Edible Beans 2 2,178.6 1,933.0 2,086.4 1,875.2
Potatoes :
Fall $ 1,186.5 1,196.9 1,166.0 1,173.6
Total 3 1,399.7 1,402.6 1,370.6 1,371.3
Tobacco : 732.7 763.4
Sugarbeets > 1,399.4 1,405.7 1,376.2 1,386.3
Sugarcane for 3
Sugar and Seed : 794.2 895.2

1990 1991 2/ 1990 Ind 1991 2/
1,000 Acres
Oats : 10,423 8,654 5,945 4,796
Barley : 8,221 8,941 7,529 8,413
All Wheat : 77,241 69,906 69,283 57,693
Winter : 56,948 51,049 49,901 39,396
Durum i 3,570 3,253 3,507 3,197
Other Spring : 16,723 15,604 15,875 15,100
Rye : 1,625 1,671 375 396
Flaxseed : 260 305 253 292
Sunflower : 1,905 2,595 1,851 2,530
All Hay t 61,557 63,134
Alfalfa : 25,401 25,845
Al] Other : 36,156 37,289
Dry Edible Peas : 166.0 190.0 159.0 187.0
Austrian Winter Peas t 13.5 13.0 11.5 11.5
Lentils : 108.0 123.0 104.0 121.0
Potatoes :
Winter : 13.5 13.2 13.2
Spring : 96.2 89.1 el
Summer : 103.5 103.4 3
Sweetpotatoes : 93.9 80.6 5
Hops : 5

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, i.e., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-3 NASS, USDA


expected. A record pod count in the upper midwest more than offsets below
average pod weights, resulting in good yields in the Corn Belt.

Peanuts: The production forecast remains a record high 4.94 billion pounds,
virtually unchanged from the October 1 forecast and up 37 percent

from last year. Favorable digging conditions offset much of the impact of dry

weather on yields. Harvested area, estimated at 1.96 million acres, is

9 percent above last year. Yields are expected to average 2,517 pounds per

acre, up 4 pounds from last month and up 526 pounds from 1990.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 3.22 billion pounds. Production is 1 percent
below October 1 but up 61 percent from 1990. The yield for the 4-State area
is expected to average 2,562 pounds per acre, 800 pounds more than last year's
drought stricken yield. In Alabama, dry October weather made digging
difficult and resulted in lower yields from last month. In both Alabama and
Georgia, declining soil moisture allowed harvest to advance rapidly.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 791 million pounds, up

1 percent from last year. Yield per acre, at 3,042 pounds, is 32 pounds above
last year's average. North Carolina's harvest progressed rapidly under
favorable conditions. Virginia producers experienced near ideal digging and
harvesting conditions during October.

The Southwest peanut crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas} is expected to
total 928 million pounds, up 1 percent from the October 1 forecast and up

13 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,085 pounds per
acre, 109 pounds above last year's yield. Increased yield expectations from
Tast month in Texas and Oklahoma more than offset a decline in New Mexico's
yield.

All Cotton: All cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million bales, up

3 percent from the October 1 forecast and up 18 percent from last
year's production. Of the total, Upland is expected to account for
17.8 million bales, while Pima production will total 434,100 bales. Total
area for harvest is estimated at 13.5 million acres, up 15 percent from 1990.
Yield is expected to average 649 pounds per acre, 19 pounds above last month
and 15 pounds above last year's yield.

Upland cotton production in Texas and Oklahoma is forecast at 6.12 million
bales, unchanged from Jast month and 14 percent above last year. The past
month's weather was beneficial for cotton development in Texas. Bolls opened
at a rapid pace, although there was some concern of aphid and boll weevil
damage. Some producers applied harvest aids in late October and freezing
temperatures occurred in early November. On November 3, 36 percent of the
crop was harvested, 6 percent more than average.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
expect to produce 6.08 million bales, up 8 percent from October and up

24 percent from 1990. Louisiana's production is a record high due to adequate
moisture, light insect pressure, and hot weather during the growing season.
Harvest gained momentum in this region, and was past peak in Arkansas by
mid-October. In late October, the second picking was active and stalks were

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 8-7 NASS, USDA


Hazelnuts: Production by State and United States, 1989-91

Tons (In-Shell Basis)

oR : 12,800 21,500 25,000

WA 1/ : 200 200 300
US : 13,000 21,700 25,300

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, Hawaii, by Month, 1990-91

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested

1991

1990

--- Acres -- 1,000 Pounds --
Sep : 3,695 3,840 2,220 2,120 4,815 4,275
Oct : 3,655 3,925 2,405 2,050 5,170 5,190
Nov : 3,610 2,420 5,555
Dec : 3,400 2,285 4,645
Jan : 3,315 2,225 4,720
Feb : 3,195 2,050 3,310
Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-Oc 47,800 37,530
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1991 A-26 NASS, USDA


Index Numbers of Crop Production
United States, 1982-91 (1977=100)

Production

Year: : Hay: : : : :

: All 1l/: Feed : and : Food : Sugar : Cotton :Tobacco: Oi1

: + Grains : Forage : Grains : Crops : + Crops
1982: «117 122 109 138 96 85 104 121
1983: 87 67 100 116 93 54 75 91
1984 : 110 115 107 129 95 90 90 106
1985 =: 116 133 106 121 95 93 79 117
1986 : 107 123 107 106 106 68 61 107
1987: = 106 106 101 107 1ll 103 62 108
1988: 91 73 88 98 105 107 72 89
1989: 106 108 100 107 105 85 71 107
1990: 113 112 101 136 108 108 85 107
1991 =: 111 107 108 105 114 127 84 113

1/ Includes some miscellaneous crop production not included in separate groups
of crops shown.

This report was approved on November 12, 1991, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the Nationa? Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural
Statistics Board.

at Aa

Acting Secretary of — Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Ann Veneman Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1991 A-2 NASS, USDA


October Crop Development: October commenced with the Nation's principal, grain

and oilseed harvests in full swing. Rain was
welcomed in the eastern Corn Belt early in the month while heavy rains caused
some coastal flooding in eastern Florida. Most of the Nation, however,
received little precipitation and harvests continued to progress ahead of
schedule. Warm, dry weather prevailed over the western half of the Nation
until late in the month when storms bearing colder, moist air pushed the warm
weather to the East. Most of the East, meanwhile, experienced periodic light
rains and below-normal temperatures through most of October, replaced by
Indian Summer conditions at month's end. Soils remained excessively dry in
Kansas throughout the month, and soil moisture remained short to adequate
across the Midwest.

Corn harvest was progressing much faster than normal entering October,
particularly in South Dakota and the eastern Corn Belt. Rains early in the
month provided beneficial soil moisture to the eastern Cornbelt, but the crop
was generally too mature to benefit. Harvest was in full swing throughout the
month, and continued to progress much faster than usual. Harvest was over
90% complete in most of the major producing States by the end of the month.
States with over 10% of the corn acreage remaining to be harvested after
November 3 were Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Soybean harvest was in full swing in the Northern States, and getting underway
in the Tower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast at the beginning of October.
Harvest had progressed much earlier than normal in the eastern Cornbelt and
South Dakota during September. Colder-than-normal weather in the eastern half
of the Nation during much of October encouraged leaf drop and weather
conditions allowed harvest to progress rapidly. Harvest was nearly complete
in the Northern States and in full swing in the lower Mississippi Valley and
Gulf Coast at the end of October.

Cotton progress was a little behind schedule entering October due to the
combined effects of late seeding in the Delta, and cool weather early in the
season in the West and at mid-season in the East. Picking was in full swing
in the East and getting underway in California. Warm weather in the West
promoted crop maturity during the month and harvest progressed well. Fifty~
seven percent of the crop was harvested by November 3, compared with 60% last
year and 54% for the average.

Grain sorghum maturity and harvest were ahead of schedule entering October,
with progress most advanced in the Midwest. Harvest was getting underway in
New Mexico and Oklahoma and was in full swing in the other major producing
States. Lack of rainfall during the growing season had stressed crop
conditions in Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri. Harvest progressed rapidly with
mostly dry weather until late in the month. Harvest was complete, or nearly
so, by the end of the month in all States except New Mexico and Oklahoma. New
Mexico's crop was 19% harvested and Oklahoma's was 41% harvested by November
3.

The initial harvest of rice was complete in Texas and nearly complete in
Louisiana prior to October. Harvest was in full swing in Arkansas and
Mississippi and gaining momentum in California. Dry weather allowed

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-3 NASS, USDA


Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
between October 22 and November 4 to gather information on
expected yield as of November 1. The objective yield surveys for corn,
soybeans, rice, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that
usually account for at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly
selected fields and plots within fields are surveyed each month. The items
counted within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that
crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other
Measurements that provide information to forecast the number of heads, pods,
ears, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from
previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The five-year average
harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are re-visited
each month until crop maturity when the fruit are harvested and weighed.
After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is
sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 13,000 producers were
interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower
reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data
were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits
their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics
Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare
the published November 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The November 1 production forecast will not be revised;
instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout
the growing season followed by end-of-season estimates. At the end of the
marketing year, administrative records and a balance sheet are utilized using
carryover stocks, production, exports, processing, feeding, and ending stocks.
Revisions are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested
acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong
evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the November 1

production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation
between the November 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed
as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage
deviations for the 1971-1990 20-year period is computed; then the square root
of the average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error."
Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the
current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that
factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those
influencing recent years.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 B-12 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Row Spacing ~ 1991

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted soybean objective yield
surveys in 11 States which account for approximately 85 percent of the 1991
U.S. soybean production. Plots were randomly selected from a scientifically
drawn sample of soybean fields, which were visited monthly from about August
1 through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements. Sample data and
the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the following table
are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates but are intended to
show trends in soybean production practices.

Measured Row Spacing of Soybeans: Percentage Distribution and
Average Width for Selected States, 1989-91 1/
H Row Width Groups (Inches) :
State :Number :----~----------------------~---~----------------- :Average
and : of : 10.1- : 18.6- : 28.6- : 34.6 & : Row
Year  :Samples 28.5 : 34.5 : Greater :Width 2/

:Number - -- Percent of - Inches
AR 1989: 125 14.1 2.0 22.1 25.7 36.1 30.4
1990: 133 28.1 3.7 24.7 22.9 20.6 25.8
1991: 114 26.0 6.9 22.4 25.2 19.5 25.1
IL 1989: 178 18.8 5.9 3.7 48.6 23.0 26.6
1990: 175 25.4 6.0 4.0 46.9 17.7 25.5
199]: 196 23.6 9.2 3.3 48.7 15,2 24.6
IN 1989: 108 19.5 9.8 2.3 53.5 14.9 26.4
1990: 96 25.3 7.7 4.1 54.1 8.8 24.5
1991: 142 32.4 12.8 4.6 44.5 5.7 22.0
A 1989: 148 4.1 4.8 6.8 55.4 28.9 30.3
1990: 139 4.3 5.7 3.9 61.6 24.5 30.5
1991: 210 ? 1.9 5.0 58.8 26.4 30.5

KS 1989: _3/
1990: 90 14.0 1.1 7.8 67.0 10.1 28.8
1991: 103 12.8 8.6 6.2 65.7 6.7 26.8
LA 1989: 85 15.9 8.2 18.8 14.7 42.4 28.4
1990: 101 19.3 13.4 15.8 17.3 34.2 28.1
1991: 55 3.6 14.5 30.0 14.6 37.3 28.7
MN 1989: 110 20.7 8.1 5.4 53.2 12.6 24.7
1990: 106 11.7 8.4 8.9 60.3 10.7 26.5
1991: 109 23.4 12.8 6.0 50.9 6.9 23.5
MS 1989: 91 17.6 12.6 14.3 14.3 41.2 27.9
1990: 100 18.5 11.5 9.5 21.0 39.5 28.6
1991: 101 22.3 18.3 17.3 12.4 29.7 24.7
--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1991 A~-29 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by Seasonal Group, and State, and United States, 1989-91 (continued)
Seasonal
Group
and : :
State : 1990 : 199]

1990 : 199]
: - 1,000 Acres

Fall :
CA : 17.0 14.5 390 390 6,440 6,630 5,655
co : ©65.0 68.0 350 350 20,603 22,750 23,800
CT 2/ : 63
1D :
10 SW Co : 20.0 22.0 400 410 6,715 8,000 9,020
Other Co : 383.0 371.0 290 305 95,760 111,070 113,155
IN : 3.9 4.1 220 235 960 858 964
ME : 76.0 79.0 270 235 22,000 20,520 18,565
MA : 2.6 3.0 250 205 600 650 615
MI : 33.0 34.0 280 260 7,350 9,240 8,840
MN > 68.0 67.0 210 250 13,860 14,280 16,750
MT : 8.9 9.3 280 300 2,228 2,492 2,790
NE : 9.3 8.8 305 275 2,528 2,837 2,420
wv : 7.0 7.6 335 335 2,600 2,345 2,546
Y :
long Is : 6.5 6.6 300 250 1,898 1,950 1,650
Upstate : 22.0 22.9 270 230 4,730 5,940 5,267
ND : 145.0 154.0 115 200 15,070 16,675 30,800
OH : 7.8 7.7 245 185 1,462 1,911 1,425
OR 3
Malheur: 7.0 6.6 360 400 2,028 2,520 2,640
Other Co : 46.0 43.4 455 450 21,280 20,930 19,530
PA : 22.5 20.0 240 190 4,715 5,400 3,800
RI : 1.1 1.5 245 190 300 270 285
SD : 9.0 7.1 220 250 1,980 1,980 1,775
UT : 6.2 6.0 265 270 1,495 1,643 1,620
WA 2 132.0 141.0 515 520 64,310 67,980 73,320
WI : 65.0 66.5 355 350 23,120 23,075 23,275
WY : 2.2 2.0 255 245 578 561 490
Total 21,166.0 1,173.6 302 316 324,673 352,507 370,997
US 31,370.6 1,371.3 293 304 370,444 402,110 417,090

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Estimates discontinued.
3/ Estimates were begun in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1991 A-13 NASS, USDA


Peanuts for Nuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested Yield Production 1/

State : : Ind: : Ind

: 1990 : 1991 : 1990 : 1991

- 1,000 Acres - --- Pounds --

AL : 256.0 288.0 1,510 2,400 537,750 386,560 691,200
FL : 94.0 92.0 2,480 2,700 214,890 233,120 248,400
GA : 770.0 865.0 1,750 2,600 1,849,500 1,347,500 2,249,000
NM : 20.0 25.0 2,500 2,200 43,680 50,000 55,000
NC : 164.0 164.0 2,900 2,950 370,120 475,600 483,800
OK : 106.0 110.0 2,220 2,300 210,700 235,320 253,000
SC : 13.5 13.5 2,230 2,600 32,500 30,105 35,100
Tx : 289.0 310.0 1,850 2,000 484,700 534,650 620,000
VA : 97.0 96.0 3,195 3,200 246,155 309,915 307,200
US : 5 5 1,991 2,517 3,602,770

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1989-91

Production
State ;-------------------------------------
1989 1990
1,000 Tons
us 4,677.4 5,966.5 7,030.8
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 199} A-16 NASS, USDA