Potatoes

Seasonal Area Harvested Yield Production
Group and
State
-- 1,000 Acres
Winter 1/ 13.2 11.7 177 207 2,764 2,343 2,425
Spring 1/ : 95.1 87.4 254 233 20,852 24,163 20,360
Summer :
AL 6.8 6.8 160 150 1,275 1,088 1,020
CA 5.3 5.0 330 330 2,196 1,749 1,650
co 6.9 7.4 295 300 2,144 2,036 2,220
DE 8.2 7.7 245 170 1,152 2,009 1,309
IL 3.1 4.4 270 250 858 837 1,100
1A 1.0 1.5 160 185 263 160 278
MD 1.8 1.7 180 160 315 324 272
MI 11.5 11.5 250 220 2,300 2,875 2,530
MN 6.1 7.3 300 290 1,890 1,830 2,117
MO 2/ 5.8 6.2 165 210 957 1,302
NE 2.7 2.4 260 260 598 702 624
NJ 4.4 4.0 230 190 888 1,012 760
NM 10.0 10.0 340 350 4,025 3,400 3,500
NC 1.4 1.4 100 90 126 140 126
TN 3/ 60
1X 10.0 11.0 195 240 2,625 1,950 2,640
VA 11.0 11.0 180 125 1,440 1,980 1,375
F tl 96.0 99.3 240 230 = 22,155 23,049 22,823
a
CA 16.4 14.5 380 6,440 6,232
co : 65.0 70.0 340 20,603 22,100
cT 3/ : 63
ID-10 SW Co : 20.0 22.0 395 6,715 7,900
Other Co: 373.0 371.0 280 95,760 104,440
IN : 3.9 4.1 220 960 858
ME 76.0 80.0 270 22,000 20,520
MA 2.6 3.1 250 600 650
MI 33.0 34.0 280 7,350 9,240
MN 68.0 69.0 210 13,860 14,280
MT 8.9 9.4 280 2,228 2,492
NE 9.3 8.6 305 2,528 2,837
NV 7.0 7.0 335 2,600 2,345
NY-Long Is 6.5 6.6 300 1,898 1,950 ,
Upstate 22.0 22.5 270 4,730 5,940 /
D 145.0 150.0 115 15,070 16,675
OH : 7.8 7.8 245 1,462 1,911
OR-Malheur : 6.8 6.8 360 2,028 2,448
Other Co : 45.2 45.2 455 21,280 20,566
PA : 22.5 20.0 240 4,715 5,400
RI 1.2 1.5 245 300 294
sD 9.0 6.5 220 1,980 1,980
UT : 6.2 5.7 265 1,495 1,643
WA : 132.0 144.0 515 64,310 67,980
WI : 65.0 66.5 355 23,120 23,075
WY : 2.2 2.0 255 578 561
Total : 1,154.5 1,177.8 298 324,673 344,317
US : 1,358.8 1,376.2 290 370,444 393,872

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Estimates begun in 1990. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 A-20 NASS, USDA


Pears

Production

Total 1/

Crop and State

Bartlett :
CA : 298,000 314,000 295,000
OR : 67,000 83,000 65,000
WA : 157/000 177,000 145,000
Total : 522,000 574,000 505,000

Excluding Bartlett :
cA : 17,000 18,000 18,000
OR : 148/000 150,000 160,000
WA : 192/000 195,000 165,000
Total : 357,000 363,000 343,000

All :
CA : 315,000 332,000 313,000
co : 4° 000 2,500 3,600
cT : 13200 1,100 1,200
MI : 8/000 2,500 5,000
NY : 16,500 14,600 15,000
OR : 215,000 233,000 225,000
PA : 5,500 3,300 4,400
UT : 2°600 2,800 2,400
WA : 349,000 372,000 310,000
US : 916,800 963,800 879,600

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):
U.S. 1989 - 350; 1990 ~ 150.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 A-14 NASS, USDA


June Weather Summary: Dry and warm weather became a concern for Corn Belt
growers. An expansive region from Kansas to

Pennsylvania received less than half of its normal rainfall in combination
with temperature departures of +2 to +5° F. A mere 25 percent or less of the
normal precipitation fell in June, roughly from Springfield, MO, to Toledo,
OH. For a second month in a row, excessive dryness plagued eastern Ohio and
western Pennsylvania. Elsewhere across the Nation, atypical wetness was the
rule from the interior Northwest to the upper Great Lakes and in portions of
the Southeast. A band from the central High Plains southward into Texas also
noted above-normal rainfall.

June's temperature departure map resembles those of the previous 3 months.
Generally warmer-than-normal weather prevailed east of the Rockies, although
extensive cloud cover and wet ground held down maximum temperatures in parts
of the Southeast. Significant negative departures (up to -6° F) were confined
to the Northwest. Excessive heat episodes were mostly short lived. The
month's most oppressive heat developed in the Plains on the 25th and quickly
spread eastward.

Several rounds of strong storms pounded the Plains early in the month. The
upper Midwest and the southern Plains were particularly hard hit. Isolated
afternoon storms were almost a daily occurrence in the Southeast, causing
widespread minor flooding. Enough rain collected in New Orleans, LA, to swell
the half-year precipitation to 71.22 inches, far beyond the annual normal of
59.74 inches. New Orleans also endured a major flood on the 10th. Copious
rain drenched the northern border States west of the Great Lakes after mid-
month. The rain combined with snowmelt to produce heavy spring runoff and
flooding in the northern Rockies. Farther east, however, raindrops were
seldom seen. Springfield, MO, reported its driest June on record

(0.23 inches). Rainfall in Quincy, IL, was a scant 5 percent of normal.
Until the final day of the month, only 15 percent of normal precipitation had
fallen in Toledo, OH. But the onset of a wetter pattern for the Corn Belt
added an inch to Toledo's total. A late-month tropical disturbance fueled
coastal downpours in Texas. On a climatological note, San Francisco, CA, set
a record for its driest 5-year period ever. The 5-year rainfall ending June
30, 1991, totaled 77.43 inches (75 percent of normal); toppling the former
mark of 78.75 inches set from July 1, 1929, to June 30, 1934.

Cool weather held sway in the Northwest. Even as late as the

20th, subfreezing minimums dotted interior valleys. Spokane, WA, endured a
record-cool June with an average temperature of 57° F (5° F below normal). A
brief blast of heat scurried from the northern Plains to the East coast before
mid-month. Temperatures topped 90° F into the southern prairies of Canada and
approached 100° F in the mid-Atlantic region. A more intense hot spell
originated in the Plains on the 25th and spread to the East coast by the 28th.
Interior Alaska sweltered in 90° F heat for several days peaking on the 21st.
By month's end, changing weather patterns brought warm, dry air to the West,
and improved the chance of thunderstorms in the Corn Belt.

dune Crop Progress: Planting progress entering June was slightly behind

normal for most crops, as spring rains had delayed
fieldwork to varying degrees across the eastern half of the Nation. The most
severe delays were experienced in the Delta, Tennessee, and Missouri where
soybean, cotton, grain sorghum, and rice planting were all much later than
normal.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-3 NASS, USDA



Production

1991 : 1989 : 1990

Bushels --

50.0 40.0 1,375 1,250 1,200

60.0 53.0 4,380 2,700 1,590

75.0 70.0 3,375 3,000 2,450

50.0 60.0 3,025 2,250 1,800

56.0 45.0 4,130 2,240 3,150

66.0 65.0 4,080 1,980 2,925

68.0 62.0 16,000 11,560 8,060

69.0 60.0 6,840 4,830 2,700

68.0 58.0 54,000 40,800 26,100

55.0 55.0 9,000 6,600 6,050
KY av] y y y 480 y y
ME 31 2765.0 75.0 2,590 2,015 2,025
MD 17 15 58.0 53.0 1,320 986 795
MI 225 130 = -§8.0 53.0 20,100 13,050 6,890
MN 730 600 66.0 58.0 46,750 48,180 34,800
MO 42 3553.0 55.0 3,600 2,226 1,925
MT 70 110 40.0 55.0 6,670 2,800 6,050
NE 280 210 48.0 54.0 8,640 13,440 11,340
NJ 1/ 1/ ly 1/ 264 1/ 1/
NY 135 110 61.0 54.0 9,145 8,235 5,940
NC 40 45 61.0 55.0 3,135 2,440 2,475
ND 600 650 51.0 53.0 20,150 30,600 34,450
OH 230 170 70.0 55.0 15,750 16,100 9,350
OK: 60 34 38.0 38.0 2,040 2,280 1,292
OR: 45 50 102.0 100.0 6,860 4,590 5,000
PA: 240 230 66.0 42.0 13,770 15,840 9,660
SC 32 45 57.0 47.0 2,360 1,824 2,115
sD 950 700 = 56.0 59.0 44,000 53,200 41,300
1X 225 190 = 41.0 39.0 6,600 9,225 7,410
UT 12 10 68.0 72.0 1,258 816 720
VA: L/ 1/ / 1 495 1 i
WA: 40 40 66.0 63.0 2,835 2,640 2,520
Woof: 6 6 57.0 49.0 300 342 294
WD: 710 560 67.0 64.0 46,860 47,570 35,840

WY : 35 30 44.0 60.0 1,410 1,540 1,800

5,940 4,972 60.1 56.3 373,587 357,149 280,016

1/ Estimates discontinued.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 A-5 NASS, USDA


Reliability of July 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
between June 22 and July 3 to gather information on
expected yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in
15 States that accounted for 85 percent of the 1990 production. Plots were
revisited to make counts and harvest mature samples. In early fields, counts
such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were
made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. A five-year
historical head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads
can be clipped, threashed, and weighed. The number of heads times the weight
of the heads in a sample plot can then be expanded to an estimate of yield per
acre. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net
yield. The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches maturity and
or harvested on the final visit.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 10,000 winter
wheat producers representing all major production areas. These producers were
selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable
winter wheat yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed
throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the
season progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower
reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness
and consistency with historical estimates. The indications were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and
previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses

the survey indications and the State analysis to prepare the published
June 1 forecasts.

Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast wil] not be revised;

instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout
the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the
end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calcutated using carryover
stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions
are then made if data relationships warrant changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the

July 1 winter wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square
Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is
done by expressing the deviation between the July 1 production forecast and
the final estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the
squared percentage deviations for the 1971-1990 20-year period; the square
root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error."
Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the
current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that
factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those
influencing recent years.

The “Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast
is 2.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
production forecast of 1.36 billion bushels will not be above or below the
final estimate by more than 2.1 percent or approximately 28.6 million bushels.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 199] B-14 NASS, USDA



Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes,
11 Major States, 1990-91 Crop

State Russets
1990 1991
co 9 7 91 93
ID 5 100 95
ME 1 70 72 30 27
MI : 3 6 80 61 17 33
MN : 23 24 41 40 36 36
NY : 100 100
ND : 14 12 68 66 18 22
OR : 1 9 100 90
PA 100 100
WA 1 17 100 82
WI 12 13 25 22 63 65
11 State Avg. : 5 5 25 29 70 66

1/ Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s)
constituting less than 1 percent of State's total.

Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes, by States 1/

State ntered for

Perc 3
: Certification

Certi

CA 107 1,200
co 91 11,500
ID 90 56,115
ME 99 27,020
MI 85 3,300
MN 96 25,303
MN 101 8,848
NE 100 6,000
NY 100 2,000
ND 98 33,421
OR 106 3,000
PA 101 226
sD 86 1,600
UT 101 700
WA 101 2,163
WI 99 11,000
Total 96 193,396

1/ Data supplied by State seed certification officials.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 A-21 NASS, USDA


fields, mostly Type 11, have been irrigated. The Type 13 harvest has started.

The South Carolina crop is maturing at a much faster pace than normal. As
June ended, 68 percent was topped and 8 percent was harvested, compared with
the five year averages of 47 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Auctions
are slated to open July 17, one of the earliest opening dates in recent
history. Many areas received excessive rain early in the season. Some
disease problems resulted and the condition of the crop is spotty. As June
ended, other areas began to suffer from lack of rain.

In Virginia, spring transplanting progressed rapidly and slightly earlier than
last year. With a dry May and June, progress dropped behind last year.
Producers began irrigating shortly after transplanting and continued through
June. Late June showers brought relief. Topping began about July 1.

In Georgia, wet weather in May and most of June reduced the size and quality
of this year's crop. Some fields have drowned spots and much has yellowed and
wilted prematurely. As of June 28, about two-thirds of the crop was rated
fair and the other third good. Farmers began harvesting early to save as many
leaves as possible and were about 23 percent complete as the month ended
compared with a 12 percent average.

Florida growers harvested their first leaves the first week of June and
harvest is expected to remain active through July. Growers experienced some
problems with slow curing and quality is lower than expected.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on
July 1 for the 48 contiguous States was

84 percent, 8 points above July 1, 1990 and 5 points above the

1980-89 average. Conditions were above last year in 26 States, below last

year in 21 States, and the same as last year in one State.

Pasture and range feed conditions were down sharply from last year in the
Northeastern States. Pennsylvania was the only State in the severe drought
range. Twenty-nine States were in the good to excellent range.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.90 million pounds
for June. This output is 22 percent lower than May and

32 percent lower than a year ago. Cumulative output for the first half of

1991 trails the same 6-month period for 1990 by 24 percent. Tree losses to

disease have been a major factor in the low output this year. Weather

conditions during June were favorable for fruit setting and development.

Major production areas experienced light showers and generally sunny skies.

Area devoted to papaya production, totaling 3,415 acres, increased

3 percent above last month but fell 11 percent below June 1990. Harvested
area totaled 1,910 acres, virtually unchanged from May, but 19 percent lower
than a year ago.

Apples: The first forecast of this year's crop, at 9.96 billion pounds, is
3 percent above last year's crop and virtually the same as 1989.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-6 NASS, USDA


DEPARTURE OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FROM NORMAL (*F)

JUNE 1991

7
JSC nomn/usen MORICULTURAL LEATHER FACILITY

‘ened to potininary caper

NASS, USDA

Agricultural Statistics Board

B-2

Crop Production

July 1991


difference will not exceed 3.6 percent or approximately 49.0 million bushels.
Differences between the July 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 23 million bushels, ranging
from 2 million to 51 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the
final estimate 3 times and above 7 times. This does not imply that the

July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate
final production.

Report Features: This issue of "Crop Production" contains a change in the
spring wheat class percentage estimates for Washington that

are used to calculate.U.S. wheat production by classes. For Washington, the

spring wheat breakdown has been changed for hard red from 35 percent to

20 percent and white has been changed from 65 percent to 80 percent.

The next “Crop Production" report will be released on August 12, 1991 at 3:00
p.m. ET.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 447-2127
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 447-3843
Kirby Cavett, Minor Oilseeds (202) 447-3180
Marty Owens, Rice, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 447-2157
Vaughn Siegenthaler, Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 447-8068
Charles Van Lahr, Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 447-7369
Herb Vanderberry, Soybeans (202) 447-9526
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Steve Ropel, Head (202) 447-3843
Jim Brewster, Fruits, Fresh Vegetables (202) 447-7688
Arvin Budge, Potatoes, Dry Beans, Processing Vegetables (202) 447-4285
Kevin Hintzman, Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 447-5412
Roger Latham, Cotton, Peanuts (202) 447-5944
Darwin Ransom, Sugar, Tobacco, Hay (202) 447-7621

Subscription Information: To subscribe to NASS reports or to order single

copies, call toll free, 1-800-999-6779 (weekdays
8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET). You may write: ERS/NASS, P.O. Box 1608, Rockville,
MD. 20849-1608.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-15 NASS, USDA


Cherries

Production
State Total 1/
wre rrr rt crescent nce nn ence cena Ind
1989 1990 1991
Tons
Sweet 2
CA : 26,000 22,000 36,000
ID : 2,700 2,000 400
MI 4 25,000 16,000 15,000
MT : 3/ 280 3/
NY : 1,350 1,000 1,350
OR H 52,000 48,000 30,000
PA 2/ : 700 50 900
UT : 1,700 1,400 800
WA : 84,000 66,000 35,000
Total : 193,450 156,730 119,450
Million Pounds
Tart
co 2/ 0.5 1.0
MI 2/ 180.0 160.0
NY 2/ 31.0 16.5
OR 15.0 7.5
PA 2/ 6.0 3.5
UT 24.0 15.5
WI 2/ 7.6 4.8
Total 264.1 208.8

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold: sweet cherrie:
(tons), 1989 - 2,520, 1990 - 24,380, tart cherries (million pounds),
1989 - 21.1, 1990 - 5.9.

2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

3/ No commercial production due to frost.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 A-18 NASS, USDA


Tobacco by Class and Type

Yield : Production

Area Harvested
Class and Type 9} ----------- 22 -- 2 2-2-2 nee nnn nnn nen enn
: Ind so: : Ind
1990 1991 1990: 1991 : 1990 : 1991
-oo-- Acres ----- -- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds --
Class 1, Flue-Cured
Type 11, Old and
Middle Belts Lot
NC : 106,000 104,000 2,090 2,130 221,540 221,520
VA : 40,000 38,000 2,120 2,150 84,800 81,700
US : 146,000 142,000 2,098 2,135 306,340 303,220
Type 12, Eastern NC
e :
NC : 135,000 131,000 2,370 2,300 319,950 301,300
Type 13, NC Border &
SC Belt .
IC : 35,000 35,000 2,230 80,150 78,050
SC : 51,000 §1,000 109,905 112,200
us : 86,000 86,000 190,055 190,250
Type 14, GA~FL Belt
L : 6,900 6,900 19,044 17,250
GA : 43,000 41,000 103,845 90,200
US : 49,900 47,900 122,889 107,450

+ 416,900 406,900 939,234 902,220

4

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 A-10 NASS, USDA


The average yield is expected to drop 4 percent.

Dry weather along the Atlantic Coast from New Jersey to Virginia has damaged
potatoes and reduced yield potential. Harvest is well along with the percent
of acreage dug ahead of last year. Summer potatoes in North Carolina were
60 percent harvested, about the same as last year and well ahead of average
progress. In Alabama, summer potatoes are better than expected considering a
wet spring. Texas harvest is slightly later than normal in the High Plains
with digging just beginning and yields expected well above last year.
Potatoes have fared well in New Mexico with few problems to date.

Yields across the Midwest are not expected to be as high as last year except
in Missouri and Iowa. Rain delays and flooding plagued farmers during the
planting season in most States and dryer weather limited yields in Illinois.
Colorado potatoes are rated good to excellent. California's cool weather
through June delayed early digging with harvest in the San Joaquin Valley to
begin in mid-July.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-12 NASS, USDA



season also. Caretakers were very active during June cutting and controlling
the abundant cover crops. In addition, most groves are sprayed and fertilized
at this time of year.

California Fruits and Nuts: With the exception of a few days early in the

month, June temperatures generally remained below
normal. Sustained cool conditions delayed the maturity of most fruit and nuts
by approximately two weeks. Harvest for apricots, avocados, cherries, Desert
Valley table grapes, Freestone peaches, plums, and nectarines was active. The
grapefruit, Southern California Valencia orange, and South Coast lemon harvest
continued as did irrigating, weed control, and orchard floor work. Treatments
for codling moth were applied in some apple, prune, Clingstone peach, and
walnut orchards. Some citrus groves were treated to control thrip and
cutworm. Dates were dusted. Almonds were sizing well but development was
slow. Walnuts showed a heavy set in many areas. The citrus trees destroyed
in last year's freeze were being replaced as nursery stock became available.
In the Central Valley, grape growers girdled the vines and tipped the bunches.
Vineyards were also treated for weeds, mildew, leafhopper, and leaf
skeletonizer.

Plums: The California forecast remains the same as last month at

210,000 tons, down 5 percent from last year and 3 percent less than
1989. Picking continues 7 to 10 days behind normal. Fruit size is normal and
quality is good.

Dried Prunes: Production in California is unchanged from last month's

180,000 tons. This crop is 22 percent more than last year's
output but 20 percent less than the 1989 crop. The fruit has good size with
minimal defects. Harvest is expected to begin in mid-August.

Grapes: The California all grape crop is expected to total 5.10 million

tons, 2 percent below 1990 and 5 percent less than 1989. The
California crop has been reduced by recent high temperatures throughout the
State.

Raisin type grape production in California is forecast at 2.30 million tons,
2 percent less than 1990 and 11 percent below 1989. The forecast is based on
a bearing acreage estimate of 250,000 acres. An additional 20,000 acres are
not included in the bearing acreage because of enrollment in the Raisin

Industry Diversion Program (RID). There was no RID program in 1989 and 1990.

The California wine type forecast is 2.20 million tons, virtually unchanged
from 1990 and 1989. Bearing acreage is estimated at 293,000 acres.

The initial forecast for table type grapes in California is 600,000 tons, down
7 percent from last year and 5 percent from 1989. The bearing acreage is
estimated at 77,600 acres. The Desert Valley table grape harvest is underway
with good quality reported. The table grapes in the Central Valley have been
adversely affected by high temperatures.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-9 NASS, USDA


All Wheat

Area Harvested Yield : Production

State : : Ind: : Ind : H : Ind

: 1990 : 1991 ; 1990 : 1991 : 1989 ; 1990 : 1991

: --- 1,000 Acres --- --- Bushels --- = ----- 1,000 Bushels -----
AL : 190 120 35.0 30.0 6,600 6,650 3,600
AZ : 98 73 94.6 95.4 10,722 9,266 6,964
AR : 3,400 930 35.0 22.0 52,800 49,000 20,460
CA : 614 422 78.0 81.5 52,605 47,906 34,400
co : 2,590 2,336 33.6 31.7 62,100 86,950 74,000
DE : 60 67 51.0 48.0 3,108 3,060 3,216
FL : 55 25 33.0 20.0 1,885 1,815 500
GA : 590 450 35.0 33.0 22,400 20,650 14,850
ID H 1,370 1,160 72.7 69.2 91,420 99,600 80,260
IL : 1,900 1,400 48.0 31.0 105,020 91,200 43,400
IN H 970 750 52.0 40.0 51,920 50,440 30,000
IA : 75 50 45.0 34.0 3,290 3,375 1,700
KS : 11,800 10,800 40.0 32.0 213,600 472,000 345,600
KY : 500 430 40.0 30.0 22,500 20,000 12,900
LA : 390 220 33.0 20.0 10,850 12,870 4,400
MD : 190 195 52.0 53.0 8,600 9,880 10,335
MI : 750 560 55.0 48.0 33,920 41,250 26,880
MN > 2,865 2,165 48.4 39.9 102,504 138,620 86,420
MS : 520 250 30.0 18.0 15,300 15,600 4,500
MO : 2,000 1,550 38.0 34.0 86,950 76,000 52,700
MT : 5,185 4,579 28.1 33.6 145,030 145,865 153,949
NE : 2,250 2,100 38.0 34.0 55,350 85,500 71,400
NV 3 14 9 70.0 67.2 1,200 980 605
NO : 29 27 43.0 44.0 1,365 1,247 1,188
NM : 325 320 25.0 22.0 4,000 8,125 7,040
NY : 145 110 49.0 48.0 5,850 7,105 5,280
NC : 550 500 41.0 40.0 21,420 22,550 20,000
ND : 10,910 9,930 35.3 33.7 242,320 385,220 334,510
OH > 1,350 1,100 59.0 50.0 62,730 79,650 55,000
OK : 6,300 5,000 32.0 27.0 153,900 201,600 135,000
OR : 968 846 59.5 53.8 53,835 57,616 45,500
PA : 210 175 50.0 46.0 7,955 10,500 8,050
Sc : 380 280 38.0 33.0 17,835 14,440 9,240
SD : 3,789 3,136 33.8 34.7 83,080 128,004 108 ,860
TN : 490 330 36.0 24.0 18,900 17,640 7,920
TX : 4,200 2,800 31.0 28.0 60,000 130,200 78,400
UT : 176 158 40.7 43.9 5,950 7,170 6,932
VA : 260 245 47.0 49.0 12,650 12,220 12,005
WA > 2,480 2,200 60.5 45.8 110,610 150,080 100,650
WV : 12 ll 46.0 43.0 516 552 473
WI 3 192 127 52.5 52.0 9,320 10,085 6,598
WY : ray 201 29.0 31.3 4,708 6,113 6,297
US : 69,353 58,137 39.5 35.0 2,036,618 2,738,594 2,031,982

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1991 A-7 NASS, USDA


Area Harvested Yield Production

State : : Ind: : Ind

> 1990 : 1991 : 1990 : 1991

: --- 1,000 Acres --- -- Bushels --
AZ : 15 20 105.0 112.0 1,236 1,575 2,240
CA : 200 160 50.0 55.0 14,500 10,000 8,800
co : 150 130 80.0 82.0 12,160 12,000 10,660
DE H 27 32 70.0 63.0 2,200 1,890 2,016
ID : 780 790 72.0 75.0 59,500 56,160 59,250
KS : 21 25 44.0 37.0 576 924 925
KY : 7 22 60.0 55.0 1,139 1,020 1,210
MD : 63 78 68.0 65.0 4,000 4,284 5,070
MI : 43 33 60.0 48.0 2,320 2,580 1,584
MN : 800 875 63.0 55.0 44,000 50,400 48,125
MT : 1,380 1,700 41.0 49.0 68,800 56,580 83,300
NE : 22 27 40.0 45.0 650 880 1,215
NV : 9 6 75.0 70.0 990 675 420
NJ : 6 8 62.0 63.0 472 372 504
NM : 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 375 i/ i
NC : 30 35 53.0 47.0 2,064 1,590 1,645
ND : 2,450 2,800 §3.0 52.0 98,050 129,850 145,600
OK : 17 10 41.0 33.0 800 697 330
OR : 130 175 70.0 70.0 12,060 9,100 12,250
PA 3 60 70 69.0 71.0 5,015 4,140 4,970
sc : 13 9 §2.0 40.0 560 676 360
SD : 500 460 49.0 53.0 19,250 24,500 24,380
1X : 16 16 38.0 40.0 480 608 640
UT : 105 95 81.0 85.0 9,006 8,505 8,075
VA : 80 85 66.0 67.0 4,875 5,280 5,695
WA : 390 570 58.0 58.0 28,420 22,620 33,060
WI : 50 65 54.0 54.0 3,705 2,700 3,510
WY : 125 133 74.0 78.0 7,000 9,250 10,374
US 7,499 8,429 55.9 56.5 404,203 418,856 476,208
i/ Estimates discontinued.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1991 A-6 NASS, USDA


Potatoes, Area Planted

Seasonal Group Seasonal Group

and > 1990 : 1991 :: and : 1990 : 1991
State : : i State : 2
1,000 Acres tt 4 1,000 Acres

Winter ly: s: Fall :
: sr (OCA : 16.4 4.5
Total 3 13.5 13.2 :: CO : 65.5 71.0

: z2 OCT 3
Spring l/s: zt 10-10 SW Co: 20.0 22.0
: it Other Co: 375.0 373.0
Total 96.2 89.1 IN : 4.3 4.5
: zz ME : 81.0 81.0
Summer 3 i: MA : 2.6 3.1
AL : 7.0 7.0 :: MI : 34.0 35.0
CA 5.3 5.0 MN : 69.0 70.0
co 7.0 7.5 MT : 9.0 9.5
DE 8.2 7.7 NE : 9.4 8.7
IL 3.4 4.5 NV : 7.0 7.0
TA 1.7 1.5 NY-Long Is : 6.5 6.6
MD 1.8 1.7 Upstate 3 22.5 23.0
MI 12.0 12.0 ND : 150.0 155.0
MN 6.2 7.4 OH : 8.0 8.0
MO 6.8 6.5 OR-Malheur : 7.0 7.0
NE 2.8 2.6 Other Co: 46.0 46.0
NJ 4.5 4.1 PA : 23.0 21.0
NM 12.0 12.0 RI : 1.2 1.5
NC 1.5 1.5 so ? t 9.0 7.0
TX 12.0 11.5 UT : 6.3 5.8
VA 11.0 11.0 WA : 133.0 1446.0
: WI : 67.0 68.0
Total : 103.2 103.4 WY : 2.3 2.1
Total : 1,175.0 1,194.3
US 1,387.9 1,400.0

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1991 A-19 NASS, USDA


Durum Wheat

Area Harvested Yield Production

State : : Ind.
1989: «(1990 ss :1991

=- 1,000 Acres --- ---- Bushels ----  ------ 1,000 Bushels ------
AZ : 44 44 94.0 95.0 7,560 4,136 4,180
CA 2 54 32 99.0 100.0 8,715 5,346 3,200
MN : 30 30 44.0 39.0 1,044 1,320 1, 3170
MT : 235 179 19.0 31.0 6,030 4,465 5.549
ND : 3,050 2,950 34.0 33.0 66,000 103,700 97,350
sD : 89 86 36.0 35.0 2,880 3,204 3,010
US : 3,502 3,321 34.9 34.5 92,229 122,171 114,459

Area Harvested

co 40 36 70.0 75.0 2,800 2,700
ID 450 460 68.0 71.0 34,720 30,600 32,660 ©
MN 2,750 2,085 49.0 40.0 96,900 134,750 83,400
MT 2,450 2,500 22.0 32.0 85,000 53,900 80,000.
NV : 8 4 70.0 70.0 720 560 280
ND : 7,700 6,900 36.0 34.0 174,000 277,200 234,600
OR : 58 46 §2.0 50.9 393 3,01 : o
So : 2,100 1,750 32.0 33.0 45,100 67,200 57,750
UT : 26 23 45.0 49.0 990 1,170 1,127
WA : 280 1,450 41.0 42.0 41,710 11,480 60,900
WI : 7 7 40.0 34.0 310 280 238
WY : 6 6 28.0 42.0 462 168 252
Us : 15,875 15,267 36.7 36.4 489,747 583,124 556,207

Winter Spring
Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard: ° Total
: Red : Red. : White : Red : Durum : White
1,000 Bushels
1989 : 711,040 548,919 194,683 433,455 92,229 56,292 2,036,618
1990 : 1,198,855 549,478 284,966 554,678 122,171 28,446 2,738,594

1991 2/ : °875;659 337,099 1487558 486,141 114;459 70,066 2,031,982
1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing states. Unless unusual situations dictate, the
previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season. Washington class estimates have been changed to 20 percent Hard Red
Spring and 80 percent White Spring. 2/ Indicated July 1, 1991.

Crop Production - : Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1991 A-9 NASS, USDA


Significant rains were common from the Rocky Mountains eastward, except in the
mid-Atlantic region, during the first half of the month. Above-normal
temperatures during the period were recorded across the central United States,
which pushed small grains toward maturity much earlier than normal. Winter
wheat in Arkansas, Illinois, and Missouri suffered due to excessive moisture
and consequential diseases caused by the wet conditions that prevailed since
early spring. Harvest of winter wheat was well along in the Southeast by mid-
June and was underway as far north as Indiana. Planting of cotton, grain
sorghum, rice, and soybean acreage was well along by mid-month, with progress
lagging only slightly behind normal. Soils were excessively dry in a band
extending from southeastern Oregon through western Nevada into southeastern
California. Dry conditions were also evident in Virginia and Maryland.

The second half of June saw general rains from the Pacific Northwest to the
Great Lakes, and thundershowers eased moisture stress in the mid-Atlantic
region. Pennsylvania, however, received little rain and corn acreage began to
show stress. Severely dry conditions developed in southeastern California and
a region encompassing southeastern New Mexico and much of west Texas. Cotton
and grain sorghum conditions in New Mexico and Texas began to deteriorate in
Tate June due to the dryness. Ptanting of principa? field crops was virtually
completed during the month. Hot weather continued in the eastern half of the
Nation, advancing crop development ahead of normal. Winter wheat was
harvested much earlier than normal in the Ohio Valley and got underway earlier
than usual in Michigan. Corn was developing faster than normal, with 11% of
the Nation's acreage silking by June 30, compared with 4% last year and

5% normal. Nearly half of Illinois' soybean acreage was in bloom, as was

40% of the Ohio acreage--both well ahead of normal. Spring wheat was over
two-thirds headed by the end of the month, while grain sorghum and rice
heading was advancing in Southern States. Cotton development continued to
track behind normal due to late planting in the Delta and Mississippi Valley
and cooler-than-normal weather in the West. Forty-four percent of the cotton
acreage was squaring by June 30, compared with 61% last year and 53% average.

Oats: Total 1991 oat production is forecast at 280 million bushels, down

22 percent from last year. The expected yield per acre is forecast at
56.3 bushels compared with last season's average of 60.] bushels. Area
harvested and to be harvested at 4.97 million acres, is down 16 percent from
last year's 5.94 million acres.

Yields in North and South Dakota are expected to be above last year.
Prospective yields in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are down from last year.

Barley: Production is forecast at 476 million bushels as of July 1, 1991.

This is 14 percent above the 1990 production of 419 million bushels.
Yields are expected to average 56.5 bushels per acre, 0.6 of a bushel more
than last year. Area harvested and to be harvested, at 8.43 million acres, is
up 12 percent from last year's 7.50 million acres.

Higher yields than last year are expected in Idaho and Montana. Forecast
yields are lower than last year in Minnesota and North Dakota.

Crop Production ~ Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-4 NASS, USDA



Crop ¢ ericaltural
. Statistics
Production

Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released July 11, 1991, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts refer
to July 1, 1991.

Winter Wheat Production Down 6 Percent from June 1

Winter wheat production for 1991 is forecast at 1.36 billion bushels, down
6 percent from June 1 and down 33 percent from 1990. This is the lowest
production level since 1978. The yield is now expected to average

34.4 bushels per acre, down 1.6 bushels from last month, and 6.3 less than
last year. Acreage for grain harvest is 39.5 million acres, unchanged from
the “Acreage” report and 21 percent below last season.

Other spring wheat production for 1991] is forecast at 556 million bushels,
down 5 percent from the record 1990 crop. The yield forecast is 36.4 bushels
per acre, down 0.3 of a bushel from last year. Harvested area is estimated at
15.3 million acres, down 4 percent from a year ago.

Oats production is forecast at 280 million bushels, down 22 percent from last
year. Yield is forecast at 56.3 bushels per acre, down 3.8 bushels from 1990.
Area for harvest is down 16 percent from last year.

Barley production at 476 million bushels is 14 percent above the 1990
production. Yields are expected to average 56.5 bushels per acre, 0.6 of a
bushel more than last year. Area for harvest is expected to be up 12 percent
from last year.

Fall Potato acreage is estimated at 1.19 million acres planted this year, a
gain of 2 percent from last year and 8 percent above 1989. Acreage from all
four seasons totals 1.40 million acres, up 1 percent from last year and

7 percent above two years ago.

Apple production, forecast at 9.96 billion pounds, is 3 percent above last
year's crop and virtually the same as the 1989 crop. Increased production
prospects in the Eastern and Central States offset the declines in the Western
States.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
additional information, call (202) 447-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (7-91)


Apples, Commercial 1/

Production
State : Total 2/
preccce-------------- 2 ---- + --------- + === Ind
1989 1990 1991
Million Pounds

AZ 34.0 64.0 53.0
AR 9.0 12.0 11.0
CA 675.0 780.0 800.0
co 70.0 35.0 75.0
CT 24.0 33.0 30.0
DE 15.0 17.0 25.0
GA 25.0 22.0 35.0
1D 158.0 165.0 130.0
IL 91.0 60.0 84.0
IN 64.0 57.0 65.0
1A 11.5 9.5 9.5
KS 13.0 8.0 11.0
KY 16.0 9.0 20.0
ME 69.0 88.0 74.0
MD 37.0 33.0 75.0
MA 78.0 85.0 78.0
MI 950.0 750.0 750.0
MN 31.0 20.0 23.0
MO 55.0 41.0 45.0
NH 41.0 48.0 48.0
NJ 48.0 60.0 100.0
NM 5.3 6.8 2.5
NY 960.0 990.0 1,030.0
NC 220.0 230.0 340.0
OH 125.6 120.0 126.0
OR 160.0 180.0 120.0
PA 320.0 450.0 550.0
RI 5.5 6.0 5.5
Sc 35.0 34.0 45.0
TN 11.5 8.5 13.5
UT 56.0 24.0 45.0
VT 45.0 43.0 47.0
VA 325.0 210.0 410.0
WA 5,000.0 4,800.0 4,400.0
Ww 115.0 150.0 230.0
WI 65.0 48.0 58.0
US 9,962.8 9,696.8 9,964.0

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.
2/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
United States 1989 - 45.4, 1990 - 38.6.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 A-12 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed Condition 1/

State : Average > 1990 : 1991

2: State

: Average
: 1980-89

: 1980-89
Percent
AL 72 65 92
AZ 71 48 79
AR 81 77 87
CA 83 45 67
co 82 66 82
CT 87 95 61
DE 78 75 70
FL 76 75 91
GA 68 39 91
1D 85 82 89
IL 79 88 82
IN 80 92 75
IA 77 95 87
KS 83 90 83
KY 81 92 92
LA 80 69 78
ME 90 94 64
TMD 81 75 55
MA 90 94 70
MI 79 92 80
MN 77 90 93
MS 78 86 91
MO 71 90 83
MT 77 83 100
NE 79 83 94

1990 1991
Percent
73 84
95 75
99 70
33 52
89 62
78 86
70 90
94 79
78 86
81 90
87 39
94 60
59 89
83 102
73 95
54 85
56 87
94 73
89 76
89 90
87 55
94 82
86 105
76 84

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Papayas - Hawaii

Fresh Production

Area

1991

1990

-- Acres ----

May : 3,885 3,310 2,365
dun: 3,850 3,415 2,370

Jul: 3,885 2,405
Aug : 3,760 2,175
Sep : 3,695 2,220
Oct : 3,655 2,405

Harvested

1990

5,120
4,285
3,145
6,160
4,815
5,170

1991

3,700
2,900

Crop Production
July 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


All Potatoes: Potato farmers planted 1.40 million acres of potatoes across
the United States this year, up 1 percent from last year and

7 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest is forecast at 1.38 million

acres, a gain of 1 percent from last year and 7 percent above 1989. Acreage

planted is down 2 percent for the winter season and down 7 percent for spring.

Summer acreage is up slightly while fall acreage is up 2 percent.

Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall season potatoes is estimated at

1.19 million acres, up 2 percent from last year and
8 percent above two years ago. Harvest is expected from 1.18 million acres,
2 percent above 1990 and 8 percent above 1989.

Notable increases, ranging from 3 to 8 percent, are estimated in Washington,
Colorado, North Dakota, and Michigan. New York, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are
also up slightly. Idaho, Maine, Oregon, and Nevada are holding at last
year's level}; while California, Utah, South Dakota, Nebraska, and
Pennsylvania have smaller acreages.

Eastern States acreage, at 136,200 acres planted, is down fractionally from
last year and the same as two years ago.

Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with relatively small acreages, are up
sharply. Maine potato acreage will remain the same as the past two years.
The Maine crop is in good condition and early growth is ahead of normal. New
York plantings increased 2 percent while Pennsylvania acreage declined

9 percent.

Central States growers planted an estimated 356,200 acres this year, up
2 percent from a year ago and 5 percent above 1989.

Each of the eight producing States is at or above last year except Nebraska
and South Dakota. Potato acreages in North Dakota and Michigan are both up
3 percent from last year. Planting in North Dakota finished ahead of schedule
in early June with the help of good weather. The crop remained in good
condition through June and early July. Wisconsin and Minnesota each gained

1 percent from a year ago. Indiana acreage is up 5 percent and Ohio is
holding the same as last year.

Western States planted 701,900 acres of potatoes in 1991, up 2 percent from a
year earlier and 12 percent above two years ago. Planting is up

8 percent in Washington and Colorado for a record high in both States.
Colorado potatoes are in good condition but late and will need a long season
to size. Cool weather in Washington slowed early growth. Farmers in Idaho,
Oregon, and Nevada planted the same number of acres as last year. Idaho
acreage shifted a little toward the ten Southwest Counties, but the crop is in
good condition with adequate water supplies.

Montana seed potato growers planted 6 percent more acres than last year.
Fewer acres than a year ago were planted in Wyoming, Utah, and California.

Summer Potatoes: The summer potato production forecast totaled 22.8 million
cwt in 1991, down 1 percent from last year but

3 percent above 1989. Farmers expect to harvest 99,300 acres during the

summer season, an increase of 3 percent from a year earlier.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-11 NASS, USDA


Apricots: The final forecast for the U.S. apricot crop is 95,100 tons, down
5 percent from last month's forecast and 22 percent below the

1990 production. California's crop forecast is 90,000 tons, down

5 percent from last month and 22 percent lower than 1990. Recent hot

temperatures matured fruit quickly causing some loss due to overripened fruit.

Harvest is expected to end by mid-July. Production estimates for Washington

and Utah remain unchanged from last month at 5,000 tons and 100 tons,

respectively.

Nectarines: The California nectarine forecast remains unchanged from last

month at 210,000 tons. The crop is down slightly from last year.
Normal sizes and good quality are reported with about 22 percent of the crop
picked to date.

Walnuts: The initial 1991 forecast for the California walnut crop is
240,000 tons, 6 percent higher than last year's production and

5 percent higher than 1989. Growers expect a large crop with good sizes.

Recent hot temperatures have caused sunburn damage throughout the State.

Almonds: The July 1 forecast for the 1991 California almond crop is

460 million pounds (shelled basis), up 2 percent from the June
forecast but 30 percent below the 1990 season. The forecast is based on an
estimated bearing acreage of 409,000 acres.

The California almond crop is in good condition. Cool weather delayed nut
maturity by approximately 7 to 10 days, but cool temperatures eased a possible
water shortage and minimized insect problems. Nut drop is complete and tree
stress due to water shortage appears to be minimal. Nut sizes are larger than
last year, but nut sets are lower.

Sweet Cherries: The U.S. production for 1991, at 119,450 tons, decreased
24 percent from 1990 and is 38 percent below 1989. In
comparison with the June forecasts, crop prospects dropped 13 percent.

Production fell sharply in Washington where June rains devastated much of the
Yakima Valley crop. In Oregon, cold weather in December along with June rains
in the Willamette Valley caused production to be off from last year. The
Michigan crop suffered severe freezes in April and May; however, quality of
the crop that survived is expected to be good.

Tart Cherries: The U.S. forecast, at 161 million pounds, is down

23 percent from last year and down 39 percent from 1989. The
crop outlook since the June 20 forecast is up 1 percent as crop prospects
improved in Utah.

Michigan, the leading producing State, expects a crop of 95.0 million pounds,
off 41 percent from last year and 47 percent less than the 1989 crop. Severe
April freezes caused extensive damage to the crop.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-10 NASS, USDA



Winter Wheat

Production
: : : : > Ind
1990 : 1991 1990 : 1991 : 1989 +: 1990 : 1991

: --~ 1,000 Acres ---  --- Bushels ---  —----- 1,000 Bushels -----
AL : 190 120 35.0 30.0 6,600 6,650 3,600
AZ : 54 29 95.0 96.0 3,162 5,130 2,784
AR > 1,400 930 35.0 22.0 52,800 49,000 20,460
CA : 560 390 76.0 80.0 43,890 42,560 31,200
co : 2,550 2,300 33.0 31.0 57,200 84,150 71,300
DE : 60 67 51.0 48.0 3,108 3,060 3,216
FL : 55 25 33.0 20.0 1,885 1,815 500
GA : 590 450 35.0 33.0 22,400 20,650 14,850
1D 3 920 700 75.0 68.0 56,700 69,000 47,600
IL : 1,900 1,400 48.0 31.0 105,020 91,200 43,400
IN : 970 750 52.0 40.0 51,920 50,440 30,000
IA : 75 50 45.0 34.0 3,290 3,375 1,700
KS : 11,800 10,800 40.0 32.0 213,600 472,000 345,600
KY : 500 430 40.0 30.0 22,500 20,000 12,900
LA : 390 220 33.0 20.0 10,850 12,870 4,400
MD : 190 195 52.0 53.0 8,600 9,880 10,335
MI : 750 560 55.0 48.0 33,920 41,250 26,880
MN : 85 50 30.0 37.0 4,560 2,550 1,850
MS : 520 250 30.0 18.0 15,300 15,600 4,500
Mo : 2,000 1,550 38.0 34.0 86,950 76,000 52,700
MT : 2,500 1,900 35.0 36.0 54,000 87,500 68,400
NE : 2,250 2,100 38.0 34.0 55,350 85,500 71,400
NV : 6 5 70.0 65.0 480 420 325
NJ : 29 27 43.0 44.0 1,365 1,247 1,188
NM : 325 320 25.0 22.0 4,000 8,125 7,040
NY H 145 110 49.0 48.0 5,850 7,105 5,280
NC : 550 500 41.0 40.0 21,420 22,550 20,000
ND : 160 80 27.0 32.0 2,320 4,320 2,560
OH 3 1,350 1,100 59.0 50.0 62,730 79,650 55,000
OK : 6,300 5,000 32.0 27.0 153,900 201,600 135,000
OR : 910 800 60.0 54.0 48,900 54,600 43,200
PA : 210 175 50.0 46.0 7,955 10,500 8,050
sc : 380 280 38.0 33.0 17,835 14,440 9,240
SD : 1,600 1,300 36.0 37.0 35,100 57,600 48,100
TN : 490 330 36.0 24.0 18,900 17,640 7,920
TX : 4,200 2,800 31.0 28.0 60,000 130,200 78,400
UT : 150 135 40.0 43.0 4,960 6,000 5,805
VA : 260 245 47.0 49.0 12,650 12,220 12,005
WA : 2,200 750 63.0 53.0 68,900 138,600 39,750
Ww : 12 i 46.0 43.0 516 552 473
WI : 185 120 53.0 53.0 9,010 9,805 6,360
WY H 205 195 29.0 31.0 4,246 5,945 6,045
US : 49,976 39,549 40.7 34.4 1,454,642 2,033,299 1,361,316
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1991 A-8 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE

FAVORABLY

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June 29, 1991 i
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MOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICILTURAL-WEATHER FACILITY nosed 00 preteioey report

Crop Production
July 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


The forecast for the Eastern States, at 3.12 billion pounds, is up 25 percent
from last year's freeze damaged crop. Most New England States expect smaller
crops than last year but this was offset by prospects of greater production
from New York to Georgia. The New England crop suffered from frost, hail, and
dry weather. New York apples developed nicely but need rain to continue to
size. In New Jersey, set was heavy and the fruit is sizing well with recent
rains. Delaware, Maryland, South Carolina, and Georgia are having an
excellent year.

The Central States forecast, at 1.22 billion pounds, is up 6 percent from last
year. A late freeze followed by a heavy drop is expected to hold Michigan's
production to last year's level. Fire blight is also becoming a problem. The
other States report some weather, insect, and disease problems.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 5.63 billion pounds, down

7 percent from last year. Winter damage and frost lowered prospects in
Arizona, Idaho, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington. Scab presents some
problems in California and some of the fruit in the Central Valley has been
sunburned. Utah had poor pollination weather, but the crop is expected to be
better than last year.

Peaches: U.S. peach production is forecast at 2.56 billion pounds, down

1 percent from the June forecast but up 16 percent from 1990.
Production of the Freestone crop, excluding California Clingstone peaches that
are mostly canned, is expected to total 1.59 billion pounds, down 2 percent
from June 1 but up 33 percent from last year.

Production in South Carolina is forecast at 315 million pounds,

12 percent less than the June 1 forecast but nearly three times larger than
last year's freeze damaged crop. Lack of size continues to be a concern in
mid-season varieties. Due to the heavy fruit set, proper thinning was
difficult. The Georgia crop, at 150 million pounds, is unchanged from last
month's forecast but 15 percent above a year ago. By the end of June, harvest
had reached the 75 percent completion mark.

Harvest of California's Freestone crop was slow through the month of June due
to cool temperatures. Fruit maturity is about a week behind normal but size
is good. Cool temperatures through June eased possible water shortages. The
Clingstone crop remains in good condition with no major pest problems.
Harvest is expected to begin in the southern San Joaquin Valley by the second
week of July.

Pears: Total U.S. pear production is placed at 879,600 tons, 9 percent less
than a year ago and 4 percent less than 1989. This level of output
reflects declines in production for the Pacific Coast States.

Bartlett production in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at
505,000 tons, down 12 percent from last year. Cool weather slowed crop
development throughout the area. Harvest is expected to start in mid-July in
California and mid to late August in Oregon. In Washington, fruit size is
small because of the cool weather.

Production of pears, excluding Bartlett, in the Pacific Coast States, at
343,000 tons, is expected to be 6 percent less than last year. The crop

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-7 NASS, USDA


United States Crop Summary - Yield per Hectare and Production
: (Metric Units)

Production

Ind 1991

Oats
Barley
All Wheat
Winter Wheat
Durum
Other Spring
Summer Potatoes
Flue-Cured Tobacco
Types 11-14
Apples, Comm']
Peaches
Pears
Sweet Cherries 1/
Tart Cherries 1/
Apricots
Nectarines (Ca)
Plums (Ca)
Dried Prunes (Ca)
Almonds (Ca)
Walnuts (Ca)

DS
YP ANNNNKWH

Citrus Fruits 2/

Oranges
Grapefruit
Lemons

n

ry UANNNYNWN

* bbb:
ny

Metric Tons

5,184,000
9,119,510
74,532,310
55,337,330
3,324,950
15,870,030
1,045,490

426,030
4,398,390
1,000,260

874,340

142,180

94,710

121,080

191,420

201,400

133,360

299,370

205,930

1989-90
7,009,820

1,797,130
640,470

39,446,690

_ 1,176,850

124,740
72,170
90,810

190,510

190,510

163,290

204,120

1990-91
7,154,060

2,044,790
616,890

4,064,420
10,368, 210,
55,301,48
37,048, 950

3,115,060
15,137,470

1,035,230

409,240
4,519,590
1,160,290

797,960

108,360

72,850
86,270

190,510

190,510

163,290

208,650

217,720

1990-91
7,157,690

2,047,520
616,890

1/ Estimates in June 1 column include forecasts in the Great Lakes states as

of Mid-June.

2/ Season begins with bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production
July 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts

Production

Crop and State

Prunes (Dried Basis)
CA
Grapes Table Type
CA
Grapes Wine Type
CA
Grapes Raisin Type 1/
CA
All Grapes
CA
Apricots 2/
CA
UT
WA
us
Nectarines
CA

Walnuts
CA

Almonds (Shelled Basis)
CA

216,000

226,000
630,000
2,190,000
2,570,000
5,390,000
118,000
400

1,600
120,000
200 ,000

229,000

490,000

222,000
147,000
645,000
2,195,000
2,345,000
5,185,000
115,000
250

7,200
122,450
211,000
227,000
1,000 Pounds

660,000

Total

210,000
180,000
600,000
2,200,000
2,300,000
5,100,000
90,000
100

5,000
95,100
210,000

240,000

460,000

1/ Fresh basis.

2/ Apricots - includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):

U.S., 1989-1,050; 1990-2,010.

Crop Production
July 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


1/

2/°

Citrus Fruit Footnotes

The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

Net Ibs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA
Desert & AZ-64, CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos &
Temples-90; tangerines-CA & AZ-75, FL-95.

Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

Estimates for current year are carried forward from earlier forcast.
Due to the severe freeze of Dec 1989, the 1990-91 TX citrus crops are
virtually eliminated and forecasts will not be issued this season unless
sufficient commercial supplies become available.

FL “all tangerines" include Sunburst tangerines beginning with the 1989-90
season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1991 A-17 NASS, USDA


United States Crop Summary - Yield per Acre and Production
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production
Crop Poco r sere e ener nn nn nnn nn nnn nnn enn nn nn nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nee
and : : : Ind 1991
Unit : : Ind : j-+-------+----.--------

Oats Bu: «60.

1 56.3 357,149 280,016
Barley "oy 55.9 56.5 418,856 476,208
All Wheat "oy 39.5 35.0 2,738,594 2,031,982
Winter Wheat "oy 40.7 34.4 2,033,299 1,449,418 1,361,316
Ourum "oy 34.9 34.5 122,171 114,459
Other Spring "oy 36.7 36.4 583,124 556,207
Summer Potatoes Cwt: 240 230 23,049 22,823
Flue-Cured Tobacco : :
Types 11-14 Lb: 2,253 2,217 939,234 902,220
Pasture and Range :
Feed 1/ Pct: 76 84
Apples, Comm'1 Lb: 9,696,800 9,964,000
Peaches "os 2,205,200 2,594,500 2,558,000
Pears Ton: 963.8 879.6
Sweet Cherries 2/ "_: 156.7 137.5 119.5
Tart Cherries 2/ Lb: 208,800 159,100 160,600
Apricots Ton: 122.5 100.1 95.1
Nectarines (Ca) "3 211.0 210.0 210.0
Plums (Ca) "3 222.0 210.0 210.0
Dried Prunes (Ca) " : 147.0 180.0 180.0
Almonds (Ca) Lb: 660,000 450,000 460,000
Walnuts (Ca) Ton: 227.0 240.0
Citrus Fruits 3/ : 1989-90 1990-91 1990-91
Oranges Ton: 7,727 7,886 7,890
Grapefruit "os 1,981 2,254 2,257
Lemons "oy 706 680 680

1/ Pasture and Range Feed Condition as of First of Month. The 1980-89 average
is 79 percent.

2/ Estimates in June 1 column include forecasts in the Great Lakes states as
of Mid-June.

3/ Season begins with bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production ° Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 A-3 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Total 1991 production is forecast at 2.03 billion bushels, down

26 percent from 1990. All wheat yields are expected to average
35.0 bushels per acre, down 4.5 bushels from last year's record high. Area
for grain is 58.1 million acres, down 16 percent from last season.

Winter Wheat: Production for 1991 is forecast at 1.36 billion bushels, down

6 percent from June 1 and 33 percent from 1990. This is the
lowest production level since 1978. Yields are now expected to average
34.4 bushels per acre, down 1.6 bushels from last month and’ down 6.3 bushels
from last year. Acreage for grain harvest is 39.5 million acres, unchanged
from the "Acreage" report and 21 percent below last season.

Yields in the Soft Red Winter States are generally down from the previous
forecast due to disease problems. Yield declines ranged from 1 to

11 bushels per acre. Kansas yields were lower due to lower than expected
average head weights. The Texas harvest reached 80 percent completion by
July 1. Yields in the Plains were better than expected.

Durum Wheat: Production for 1991 is forecast at 114 million bushels, down

6 percent from 1990. Yields are expected to average
34.5 bushels per acre, down 0.4 of a bushel per acre from last year. Area for
grain is placed at 3.32 million acres, down 5 percent from last season.

The Arizona and California durum harvests were nearly complete by
July 1 with excellent yields.

In the northern durum States, expected yields are lower than in 1990, except
for Montana, where growing conditions are quite favorable. Minnesota's durum
crop has adequate moisture. As of July 1, 94 percent of North Dakota's durum
crop rated good to excellent; 32 percent of the crop was headed, equalling the
five-year average. Topsoil moisture rated adequate to surplus.

Other Spring Wheat: Production for 1991 is forecast at 556 million bushels,

down 5 percent from the 1990 record high level. The yield
is forecast at 36.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 of a bushel from last year.
Harvested area is 15.3 million acres, off 4 percent from a year ago.

Growers in most States are expecting higher yields than last season.
Conditions have been excellent for Montana's other spring wheat; soil moisture
is ample in most locations. North Dakota's soil moisture supplies are
favorable. Reports of disease are on the rise; some hail damage was recorded
in the southwest district.

Tobacco: The first flue-cured production forecast for this season is

902 million pounds, 4 percent less than last year's output.
Production is down in 4 of the 5 producing States. Yield per acre, at
2,217 pounds, falls short of the 1990 average yield by 36 pounds. Acres for
harvest are down 2 percent from a year earlier.

The North Carolina growers had ideal planting conditions this spring. The
crop is in mostly good condition and is maturing ahead of normal. Some

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1991 B-5 NASS, USDA


United States Crop Summary - Area Planted and Harvested
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted
for All Purposes Area Harvested 1/

1990 Ind 1991
1,000 Acres
Oats : 10,423 8,648 5,940 4,972
Barley : 8,201 8,926 7,499 8,429
All Wheat : 17, 286 70,031 69,353 58,137
Winter : 56,998 51,049 49,976 39,549
Durum : 3,565 3,378 3,502 3,321
Other Spring : 16,723 15,604 15,875 15,267
Potatoes - Total : 1,387.9 1,400.0 1,358.8 1,376.2
Summer : 103.2 103.4 96.0 99.3
Fall : 1,175.0 1,194.3 1,154.5 1,177.8
All Tobacco : 732.7 766.5
Flue-~Cured :
Types 11-14 : 416.9 406.9
Metric units - hectares
Oats : 4,218,080 3,499,760 2,403,860 2,012,120
Barley : 3,318,860 3,612,260 3,034,770 3,411,130
All Wheat : 31,276,870 28,340,840 28,066,460 23,527,460
Winter : 23,066,520 20,659,020 20,224,790 16,005,080
Durum : 1,442,720 1,367,040 1,417,220 1,343,980
Other Spring : 6,767,630 6,314,780 6,424,450 6,178,400
Potatoes - Total : 561,670 566,570 549,890 556,930
Summer : 41,760 41,840 38,850 40,190
Fall : 475,510 483,320 467,210 476,640
All Tobacco : 296,520 310,210
Flue~Cured :
Types 11-14 : 168,720 164,670

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, i.e., grain, beans, nuts, etc.

This report was approved on July 11, 1991, by the Secretary of Agriculture and
the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board.

werk Madig.ea beskrote Wyecl

Secretary of | Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Acting Chairperson
Edward R. Madigan Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1991 A-2 NASS, USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative

Apples, Commercial............ cc cece cece cece see eeenecens A-12 B- 6
Barley... ccc ee cece cece cece cence erence een eee seeneeeneees A- 6 B- 4
Cherries..........seeeee denen enn een e eee e eee eeenteeneee A-18 B-10
Citrus Fruit... cece cece eee e tence crete eee eeeneeernenes A-16 B- 8
Crop Moisture MapsS........ ccc cece tec e cece eee seen eeeeees B- 1
Miscellaneous Fruits............... Peace een ee eeeeeees A-15
NUTS. e cece cece ence rece tence eee e eee eee ee eenenees A-15 B-10
Oats... rece e ee eee cence Sone eee e eect eeeeeeeene cena A- 5 B- 4
Papayas-Hawali.... cc. cc cece ee eee c eee e eee etn ena seeeeees A-11 B- 6
Pasture and Range Feed Condition... ence eee e eee eneeeee A-11 B- 6
PeaCheS...... cece cece sere c ence cece reece eeeet eee eeeeeeees A-13 B- 7
UT: A-14 B- 7
Potatoes........ be eeeeee bene eeeeeeeeeee fete seceeeenesnee A-19 B-11
Reliability Statement............ cc cece eee cece ween wees B-14 B-14
Tobacco, by Class and Type.......... ccc cece es eeee ee en eee A-10 B- 5
U.S. SUMMATY... 6... ccc cece cece eee eee tet ene eee eenees A- 2
Wheat, Allo... cc cece ec ccc cece cece rece e eae rerecrrreeece A- 7 B- 5
Wheat, by Classes... .... ccc cece cece cece e ee sceeeees A- 9
Wheat, DUPUM......... ccc cece cece renee eee ee een eneeees A- 9 B- 5
Wheat, Other Spring............ cece cece eee e cece sense eens A- 9 B- 5
» Wheat, Winter... ... cece cece eee erent etree nee eeeeens A- 8 B- 5
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1991 B-13 NASS, USDA


continues to lag behind normal development. Some hail damage was reported in
Oregon.

The pear crop in Connecticut, New York, and Pennsylvania could use rain as dry
conditions are affecting fruit size. Frost limited the Colorado, Connecticut,
and Utah crops.

Oranges: The final forecast for the U.S. orange crop is 7.89 million tons,
virtually unchanged from the June 1 forecast but 2 percent more than
last season. The Florida all orange forecast, at 152 million boxes, is
unchanged from June 1 but 37 percent above last season's freeze damaged crop.
The final Florida Valencia forecast is 64.0 million boxes, unchanged from last
month's forecast but up 52 percent from last season's utilized production.
Harvest is virtually complete. The California all orange forecast is
26.8 million boxes, unchanged from the June 1 forecast. The California Navel
forecast is 15.8 million boxes, unchanged from June 1 but down 64 percent from
the 1989-90 crop. Harvest is complete. California's Valencia forecast is
11.0 million boxes, unchanged from last month but 59 percent lower than last
season. The sharp decrease in California orange production is due to the
December 1990 freeze.

The all orange forecast for Arizona is expected to total 1.75 million boxes,
6 percent above the April 1 forecast and 11 percent higher than the previous
year. Due to the severe December 1989 freeze, the 1990-91 Texas orange crop
was virtually eliminated.

The July 1 U.S. all orange forecast has deviated from actual production by an
average of 71,200 tons over the past ten seasons ranging from a low of
1,000 tons in 1983-84 to a high of 214,000 tons in 1982-83.

Florida Frozen Concentrated Juice Yield: The 1990-91 final Frozen

Concentrated Orange Juice Yield
(FCOJ) for Florida remains at 1.45 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The
final yield is reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The
freeze damaged 1989-90 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.23 gallons per
box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

Grapefruit: The final forecast for the 1990-91 U.S. grapefruit crop is
2.26 million tons, virtually unchanged from the June 1 forecast
but 14 percent more than the 1989-90 crop.

Lemons: The California and Arizona lemon crop is expected to total
680,000 tons, unchanged from the April 1 forecast but down 4 percent
from the 1989-90 season. Harvest is nearing completion.

Florida Citrus: This State's groves are in good to excellent condition.
Afternoon rains and thunderstorms have been beneficial and
helped refill many lakes, ponds, and streams. Trees of all ages and in most
areas show an abundance of new growth. New crop fruit has excellent size and
is making good progress. Harvest of Valencia oranges was virtually over by
the end of June and grapefruit movement was almost complete for the 1990-91

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1991 B-8 NASS, USDA



Peaches

Production
State : Total 1/ 2
lt H Ind
1989 : 1990 : 199)
Million Pounds
AL 15.0 12.0 16.0
AR 2.5 18.0 12.0
CA - Freestone 528.0 572.0 §50.0
co 4/ 17.0 2.0
CT 2/ 4.0 3.6 3.4
DE 2/ 0.4 0.2 2.7
GA 125.0 130.0 150.0
1D 4.0 4.7 4/
IL 13.0 0.3 20.5
IN 2/ 4.0 9.8 3.8
KS 2/ 2.5 0.1 5.0
KY 2/ 2.0 4/ 12.0
LA 2/ 1.4 4.0 5.0
MD 7.6 4.0 18.0
MA 2.1 2.0 2.1
MI 55.0 45.0 40.0
MS 1.0 5/ 5/
MO 2/ 4.5 0.7 10.0
Nd 70.0 45.0 120.0
NY 12.5 14.0 15.0
NC 12.0 10.0 35.0
OH 2/ 8.0 §.5 5.5
OK 2/ 25.0 8.0 25.0
OR 2/ 14.0 14.5 13.0
PA 65.0 76.0 84.0
sc 270.0 110.0 315.0
IN 2/ 1.3 1.3 7.0
TX 2/ 14.0 24.0 32.0
UT 2/ 11.0 12.0 4.0
VA 15.0 2.5 29.0
WA 44.0 53.0 30.0
WV 9.0 3.0 21.0
Total Above 1,342.8 1,193.2 1,588.0
Clingstone 3/

ay 992.0 1,012.0 970.0
us 2,334.8 2,205.2 2,558.0

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
United States, excluding CA clingstane peaches, 1989 - 58.0, 1990 - 36.6.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

3/ CA clingstone is over the scale tonnage and includes culls and cannery
diversions (million pounds): 1989 - 68.0; 1990 - 58.0.

/ No significant production due to frost.

/ Estimates discontinued.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1991 A-13 NASS, USDA


Production
Boxes

Production

Ton Equivalent

ilized

Ut

Utilized

Oranges, Early Mid
& Navel 3/
AZ 4/

Oranges, Valencia
A

cA

% 5

US
ANT Granges

Grapefruit, White
Seedless

FL
Grapefruit, Colored
Seedless

FL
Other Grapefruit
L
All Grapefruit
AZ

CA
Desert 4/
Other Areas
Total
1 5
5/
US
Tangerines
cA 4)
FL 6/
us

Lemons

550
34,000
85,300

1,200
121,050

1,150
245900
61,300

650
88,000

1,700
58,900
146,600
3850
209,050

3,750
27,700

23,700
3,350
1,950

3,500
43500
8/000

543750
4;800

69,500

650
2,040
2,900
5,590

3,800
16,200
20,000

380
44,100
68,100

1,050

113,630

1,190
26,800
42; 100

155
70,245

1,570
70,900
110,200

1;205
1835875

1,400
18,000

16,300
1,400
2,200
3,700

550
15,800
87,500

103,850
1,200
11,000
645000
76,200
1,750
26,800
151,500
180,050

2,500
21,700

21,800
1,600
2,400
3,500

44 45
1,005 413
1,898 2,880
2,951 3,338

58 66
2,659 1,006
43959 6,818

51
7,727 7,890

63 113

765 922
693 927
60 68
70 77
118 112
195 151
313 263

22 24
61 49
81 93
164 166
110 148
596 532
706 680
132 119

See footnotes on page A-17.

Crop Production
July 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA