OATS

’ AREA HARVESTED 3 YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE ’ t , IND * ’ IND ¢ A IND

H 1976 + 4977.3 1978 1976 : 4977 + 1978 + 1976 + 1977 + 1978

fy 14000 ACRES BUSHELS 1000 BUSHELS

'
ALA ast 25 25 25 37.0 4160410 925 19025 1,025
ARK we $s 50 50 7840 70.0 74.0 49290 39500 39700
CALIF l/t 100 10% 100 49,0 S140 5060 49900 50304 59000
COLO lst 50 31 33 47,0 46,0 46,0 25350 19426 1518
FLA aft 12 12 St 45.0 600 540
GA vt 60 55 6s 50.0 5040 39180 26750 39250
IDAHO 1/3 43 45 4a? 57.0 56.0 29408 29565 29632
TLL we 380 340 290 61.0 58.0 229420 200740 169820
IND t 200 150 165 53.0 54.0 109200 79950 89910
Iowa ' 15400 45375 1,275 59.0 55.0 820600 819125 700125
KANS 1/3 200 210 130 45.0 38.0 89400 99450 40940
KY Vs 10 9 8 35.0 42.0 350 315 336
LA ast 9 7 54.0 468 378
MAINE 1/8 28 30 32 50.0 50.0 19400 19500 19792
MO Ve 22 22 23 53.0 54.0 19210 19366 19242
MICH ' 385 340 360 55.0 56.0 199635, 18+700 209160
MINN ' 29060 25380 1,950 68.0 5040 = 949760 979500
MISS 2/1 43 13 45.0 $46
MO iss 136 145 40 50.0 39.0 Se4au 19560
MONT 1 157 140 240 40.0 4900 79536 119760
NEBR fy 600 670 450 58.0 44.0 279720 192800
NEV 2/8 3 4 55.0 144
NJ 1/3 8 9 8 4300 44.0 408 352
NY : 31s 290 300 53.0 59.0 179325 179700
nc Ve 80 75 90 42.0 53.0 35760 49770
N OAK 1 19180 14500 15310 40.0 51.0 444840 660810
OHIO t 500 420 400 59.0 60.0 28500 24,000
OKLA 1/3 165 130 120 4660 3660 4725 49320
OREG t 20 BO 7s 65.0 60.0 39850 49500
PA : 355 350 340 53.0 5260 189105 172660
sc it 65 55 65 45.0 46.0 Sl.0 29925 39315
SOAK 3 19420 29450 2s210 30,0 54.0 4200 421600 924820
TENN 1/3 as 2s 25 45404360 420 19125 19050
TEX 1/8 390 600 430 3760 4000 32.0 149430 139760
UTAH 1/3 12 10 13° $7.0 55.0 58.0 684 154
vA Ua] 32 34 36 48.0 440 4700 19488 19692
WASH : 35 35 32 $6.0 4360 54.0 15960 19728
wVA lst 16 12 1200 45.0 41604700 630 564
wIS t 14280 ani7o 19150 4300 6520 S720 559040 655550
wyo 1st $3 4s 52 46.0 38.0 4740 29438 19710 29444
us 1 119946 135467 11,951 45.7 S566 4909 5464315 T4IG1e 5950879
1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP,
CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


DRY EDIBLE PEAS: Ory edible pea production in Idaho and Washinaton is forecast at 3.45 million

cwt, (156 thousand metric tons). This production is more than three times last
year's drought reduced crop. The two States are expected to harvest 197 thousand acres (79.7
thousand hectares), up 18 percent from the 1977 acreage. Yield per acre for the two-State area
is expected to average 1750 pounds compared with 613 pounds last year and 1720 pounds in 1976.

The dry pea crop in Idaho is mostly harvested. Quality of the crop was generally good al-
though rain did cause some damage to the last part of the crop harvested tn north Idaho. Hot,
dry weather prevailed during the first half of August in Washington. Peas matured rapidly and
harvest was progressing well. At mid-month the weather changed and cloudy, cool, rainy weather
moved over the dry pea producing area of eastern Washington. Harvest was virtually at a stand-
still through the rest of August. Quality damage is expected on the remaining acreage to be har-
vested. Yields-will also be affected due to pods shattering as they dry out.

POTATOES: The final forecast of the season for summer crop potatoes is placed at 21.0 million

hundredweight (953 thousand metric tons), down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast
and 4 percent below Tast year. The crop is expected to be harvested from 112 thousand acres
(45.4 thousand hectares), 3 percent less than last year.

Harvest in New Jersey has been frequently interrupted because of wet fields. Growth has
been good, pushing yields above last year's level. Digging is complete in Virginia with only a
few exceptions, Dry weather in Michigan during the growing season has adversely affected yields.
Digging is well underway in Minnesota. Harvest is making good progress in Ohio and is expected
to continue through most of October.

Harvest was active on the High Plains of Texas throughout August under favorable conditions.
Digging is expected to decline seasonally during September, In California, harvest is active in
the Stockton area and is just starting in Santa Maria. Limited digging has begun in Riverside
County.

SWEETPOTATOES: Production of sweetpotatoes for 1978 is estimated at 13.7 million cwt. (621 thou-
sand metric tons), 2 percent above the August 1 forecast and 11 percent above
last year. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 119 thousand acres (48.0 thousand hectares), 5
percent more tran in 1977. Yield per acre is placed at 116 cwt. compared with 110 in 1977 and
4 cwt. in 1976.

Rainfall has been beneficial to the sweetpotato crop in New Jersey where limited harvest is
underway. Conditions are also good for the North Carolina and Virginia Crops. Harvest began
slowly in North Carolina and by September 1 about 18 percent of the acreage was harvested,
Georgia's August rainfall was quite variable. Exceptionally high yields have been reported in
some areas while other areas reflect the dry conditions. Rains in Tate August were very benefi-
cial to the Louisiana sweetpotato crop, especially in the northern third of the State where soil
moisture has been very short. Slightly less than one-third of the acreage was dug by September 1.
The East Texas crop remains under moisture stress although some areas received scattered rains in
August. Initial harvest began the middle of August but progressed slowly due to limited tuber
development caused by the hot, dry weather. Harvest activity is increasing in California,

Yields are expected to be good even though army worms and mites have been troublesome.

TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 2.00 billion pounds (907 thousand metric tons),
up 5 percent from the 1977 production. The increase in prospective production is due

primarily to an 8 percent increase in flue-cured and a 3 percent increase in dark air-cured.

Yield of al] tobacco is indicated at 2117 pounds per acre, compared with 1997 pounds last year.

Fiue-cured production is forecast at 1.22 billion pounds (552 thousand MT), 8 percent above
1977, Florida was the only flue~cured State showing a decline from the August 1 forecast as most
types for other States improved during the month. Growing conditions have been nearly ideal in
North Carolina this season as both yields and quality have been good. Harvest was about three-
fourths complete, August rains helped improve the Virginia crop where about half the crop was
harvested, South Carolina's tobacco harvest was near completion on September 1 while Florida's
harvest was over,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


FLAXSEED

1 pREA HARVESTED gp ELD dg pRODUCTION
STATE 3 t ' IND 3 t y IND? ’ t IND
41976 3 1977 4 1978 + 3_1978 t 976 4 $ 8
t 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 SUSHELS
’
MINN ot 195 220 138-1060 14651400 19950 39190 19932
MONT 1/4 5 5 10.0 720 50 35
N DAK ¢ 500 850 480 B.0 = 1000 1260 49000 8500 59760
SOAK 3 230 330 288 660 13.0 12.0 12380 44290 39456
Tex 2/3 55 20 8.0 10.0 = 10.0 440 90 200
985 926 129 4 12.3 79820 166105114348
V/ ESTIMATES DISCON Tadet METER
27 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS
STATE 3 AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELD i PRODUCTION
t + + TNO ¢ % IND t ¥ 7 TND
1 1976 + 1977.2 1978 11976 i 1977 11978 + 1976 4 1977 ¢ 1978
1 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 1+000 BUSHELS
’
ALA 1 19170 14600 19950 24.0 2140 2440 289080 ©=— 33600 © 46800
ARK £ 49320 41600 49800 = 1940 22a = 2040 = 24080 = 1018200 © 96000
DEL oss 205 225 235 24,0 23402740 49920 S175 69345
FLA oles 253 327 400 2640 2440 2640 69578 7848 = 104400
GA ’ 3870 15090 19700 2365 2000 = 2340 © 209445 219800 ©3941 00
TLL : 79560 84850 90200 3360 ©3740 = 3440 2499480 © 3270450 © 312800
INO : 39280 39870 4100 3400 3640 3240 1419820 1399320 1314200
IOWA = $6450 79230 79500 3100 3440 ©3540 © 1999950 245rBz0 © 262500
KANS : 865 990 15430 15.0 28.0 2040 129975 278720 284600
KY ' 19070 14360 16450 2760 ©2945 2640) 289890 = 408120 © 374700
La $ 20250 24680 29950 = 2840 2345 2440 = 39000 © 624980 = 70 800
MD : 295 320 345 25.0 26403240 74375 84320 2109695
MICH t 565 720 810 2005 2940 24 119583 209880 199440
MINN : 39020 39810 49000 = 2240 3540 3200 669440 © 1339350 1289000
MIss ot 39250 39900 = 2240 2045 = 20400 © 719500 744825 «784000
MO t 200 59500 20.0 3 2700 = 849000 1442000 ©1448 9500
NEBR : 980 14270 2060 34.0 199600 409120 439180
Nyoolss 138 185 24.0 2640 39312 49071 49810
NY We 12 16-2640 2360 32 299 368
NC : 14120 19600 22402240 2440 = 249640 299040 = 38400
N DAK 1/3 147 1851265 20400 214 19838 39800 30885
OHO + 29880 39720 3360 © 34,5 3200 = 959040 = 3:16 9610 = 1198040
OKLA 1/3 250 31S 22.0 22.0 2140 59S00 69080 60615
PA st 50 67 29.0 28.0 19450 19943 14876
sc : 14190 14460 18.0 . 2160 219620 = 26000 © 304660
S OAK i7t a7. 360 17.0 30.0 02740 49607 99150 96720
TENN : 19800 29420 2265 ©2340 © 2260 = 409500 = 500600 = 539240
TEX t 347 750 2600 ©2640-2340 Qe022 199760 179250
va : 398 440 2065 1845 2440 34159 79955 109560
wis) lst 152 192 210 22400 3440-2840 344 69528 51880
us : 490388 S791) 634268 2601 2 28.0 1s2e7s300 157169334 197724364
1/4 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 8-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF SEPTEMBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield surveys taken about
September 1, Some adjustments have been made in harvested acreages published previously. The
yield surveys included mailed reports from farmers for all crops and actual field observations
and measurements for corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat, and some fruit and nut crops. Farmers pro-
vided appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops on their farms and
for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot observations, counts and mea-
surements in a probability sample. These surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling type
errors that are common to all surveys. More importantly, the forecasts are subject to change due
to weather during the remainder of the season and other factors that directly affect final produc-
tion but cannot be measured currently.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in this report, the
"Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is shown below for
selected crops, This is computed by expressing the deviations hetween the September 1 production
forecasts and the final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1958-77 twenty year period; the square root of this average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expec-
ted errors in the current forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates, assuming that
factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years’
forecasts.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error” for the September 1 corn for grain forecast is
4.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 6798
million bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.6 percent or approx-
imately 313 million bushels, Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the dif-
ference will not exceed 7.9 percent or approximately 537 million bushels,

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between the
September 1 forecast and the final estimate, Using corn again as an example, changes between the
September 1 forecast and the final estimate during the 10 years have averaged 270 million bushels,
ranging from 98 million to 455 million bushels. During this 10-year period the September 1 fore-
cast has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times.

RELIABILITY OF SEPTEMBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR: TEN YEAR RECORD OF DIFFERENCES GETHEEN
CROP AND : FORECAST AND FINAL ESTIMATE

UNIT Y 90% CONFIDENCE QUANTITY =_NUMBER OF YEARS

PERCENT : LEVEL : 7 7 BELOW > ABOVE

: VATANTTTY-; AVERAGE ‘SMALLEST } LARGEST Final: FINAL

MILLION MICLIOW

FEED GRAINS 1/ TON 2/ : 36 6.2 30: 7 2 10 6 4
CORN BU 4.6 79 537: 270 98 455 6 4
SORGHUM Bu 45 7.8 55: 28 4 60 2 8
OATS BU 3.9 6.7 40: 27 7 48 3 7
BARLEY BU 3.0 5.2 23: 10 2 27 6 4
ALL WHEAT BU 1.3 212 390: 13 3 40 1 9
DURUM BU 5.1 8.8 if 3 0 7 5 5
OTHER SPRING = BU 34 5.9 % > f 9 n 6 4
RICE cuT 36 6.2 3 3 0 6 4 6
SOYBEANS Bu 3.8 6.6 17 48 6 105 5° 5
COTTON BALES 3/: 7.1 12:2 1,360 663 36 1,660 4 6

T/~ CORN, SORGHUM, OATS AND BARLEY
@/ UNIT OF PRODUCTION 1S IN METRIC TONS.
(3/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 AS CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


NUTS

+ PRODUCTION
CROP AND STATE t TOTAL ? TOTAL TNO
t 1976 t 1977 1978
' TONS
FILBERTS :
OREG ’ 65950 119400 119400
waSH : 220 350 350
us 1 74170 119750 119750
WALNUTS t
CALIF : 1631000 1925000 1605000
OREG wv 00 500
us : 1839700 1929500 160+000
1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.
MINT FOR OIL
t AREA HARVESTED i YIELD : PRODUCTION
STATE a v s AND 4 ay 4 IND + + a IND
U 1976 + 1977 3 1978 t 1976 % 1977 3 1978 ¢ 1976 + 1977 3 1978
7 1000 ACRES CBS OF OTL 19000 POUNDS
PEPPERMINT
IDAHO ' 504 7.9 10.3 51 45 $B 27s 356 597
IND t 668 8.0 9.3 35 27 40 238 216 372
OREG 4200 $1.0 58.0 55 55 58 29310 24805 39364
WASH ' 902 12.8 17.3 38 62 73 534 7194 19263
wIS : 8.8 62 nS 39 33 36 343 238 323
us ' Tez 86.9 106.4 51 51 87 39700 49409 51919
SPEARMINT
IDAHO t 367 568 12 47 47 57 174 273 410
IND : 5.5 5.5 5.9 36 30 36 187 165 212
MICH ot 35 363 309 28 24 27 98 9 105
WASH ot 13.7 19.6 25.8 82 a7 89 19123 19705 24296
wIs ' 206 209 45 40 37 36 104 107 162
ws t 29.0 ELAS 4763 58 63 67 14686 20329 30185
COFFEE
PRODUCTION
a 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78
T,000 POUNDS
HAW 1,860 2,120 2,270

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978

B-18

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


BARLEY

1 AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO 1 PROOUCTION
STATE 4 : + INQ 3 + + IND ¢ 8 ’ IND
1 1976 3 1977 4 1978 t 1976 t 4977 § 1978 3 1976 3 1977.1 1978,
1 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS
:
ARIZ 1/3 57 55 37 7600 Ted 40332 29738
CALIF 1st 14010 950 950 5660 48.0 $6 9560 454600
COLO a 245 230 235 59.0 5940 139475 139570 139865
oOEL ost 2s 20 23 42.0 4500 19200 19035
GA ent 6 7 + 3760 270
IOanO + 800 450 820 47.0 6060 = 439200 494200
kL ast 10 9 9 4200 4160 400 369
INO] 2/t 9 8 4000 378
KANS 1/1 68 6S 50 3600 3640 29380 19600
KY vt 23 2s 24 46.0 4240 851 1.008
“oO we 90 70 90 51.0 4900 4410 440
MICH 1st 19 19 19 S200 4740 874
MINN ' 860 14030 14010 51.0 5140 359260
MO art 8 8 37.0 256
MONT ‘ 19170 19520 1,450 3665 4400 524065
NEBR 1/3 40 34 33 45.0 . 19440
NEV 1st 16 9 20 6540 606 864
No lst 20 uv 18 48.0 5060 980
N MEX 1/5 24 26 26 5140 5120 19226
NY lst 9 10 10 44.0 4540 396
NC lst 60 55 59 40.0 51.0 29340
NDAK of 29140 29530 24400 3960 819320
OHIO 1/3 ret ret 10 51.0 $72
OKLA 1/8 73 120 80 3540 3460 31066
OREG 1 160 190 185 47.0 4960 74360
Pa val 125 125 125 50.0 4640 59375
sc us 20 ai 24 40.0 4940 720
$ Oak 3 350 640 565 42.0 3660 $1950
TENN 178 13 13 13 3960 38.0 oa
TEX 1st $2 as 40 4000 © 2760 20028
UTAH ' 126 115 133 54.0 5 69930
vA ise 92 92 101 4400 S06 49416
WASH : 390 350 380 27.0 5% 219060
wVA 1st 9 9 10 42.0 45.0 378
wis) 1st 32 29 27 54.0 4940 19280-
wo : 135 133 130 55.0 63.0 89370
us t 85297 99490 9106 4449 4368 4Bel 3720461 4154803 438,429

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECASTs
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 B-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP | AREA HARVESTED 4 YIELO 4 PRODUCTION
ANI i) 1 t IND 1 f tT IND | y T INO
STATE 41976 | (1977 _1 1978} 1976 | 197711978 | 1976 | _1977_1 1978
1 15000 ACRES cer 19000 CwT
i)
WINTER '
1
TOTAL wi 14.4 13.4 1206 207 199-220 21984 = 24660 24766
'
SPRING '
1
TOTAL wi 9864 91am 9007 25) 250 199 24s722 229870 185028
1
SUMMER '@
ALA i) B62 145, 100 140 19189 750 15120
CALIF i) Bel 360 360 360 29916 39024 21846
COLO 1 mS 265 265 250 19988 19802 19650
OEL t 508 200 210 210 19160 2ell3 As1l3
TLL 1 2.8 190 200 200 $32 460 360
IND i 2el 185 i7s 170 389 368 340
TOWA f 205 185 225, 200 463 473 320
mp { 168 170 150 150 306 240 225
MICH i] 766 170 185 165 19292 19443 19370
MINN i 8.0 250 275 270 23000 = 2406319890
NEBR ' 202 160 150 160 352 ns 268
NJ i] 746 8.0 = =—260 265 270 19976 29147 29160
N MEX ( 3.2 180 190 200 576 551 740
nc ' 400 . 125 125 125 500 500 500
ORIO ' 169 +6 «210 190 200 399 342 320
TENN 1 47 44 95 90 90 447 405 396
TEX i) 966 11.2 245 230 210 20352 29369 29352
VA ' 28.5 27s 123 125 110 39506 39463 39025
wova art 2.6 7 64 198 154
'
TOTAL (118.7 11562 112.2 190 wa 187 220541214982 219013
1/ ESTIMATE FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.
SWEETPOTATOES
+ AREA HARVESTED. 1 YIELO A PRODUCTION
STATE + fy 7 TNO? t fy IND ¢ + t IND
1 197% + 1977_4 1978: 1976 } 1977 4 1978 ¢ 1976 1 1977 4 1978
1 19000 ACRES Cw 19000 cw
:
ALA 1 505 5.5 90 85 8s 495 451 468
ARK : 1.5 1.8 78 76 79 17 122 142
CALIF ' 766 8.5 iss 150 470 19178 19170 19445
GA ' 59 6.0 120 90 110 708 495 660
LA ' 2760 95 90 95 20755 29430 29565
MO + 16 1s5 155 160 248 248 224
MISS 1 900 90 65 88 810 680 792
NJ 1 267 115 105 110 265 252 297
NC 1 3760 130 135 140 49290 49655 59180
sc 1 202 86 OL 90 21s 209 198
TENN + 208 105 100 100 305 280 260
TEX ' 8.5 105 95 70 19103 903 595
vA 1 661 145 125 140 943 700 854
us 1 118.5 116 110 116 139432 129395 135700

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


DURUM WHEAT

STATE AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELD ' PRODUCTION

i + ? IND t T + IND t t t IND

t 1976 4 1977 1978 1 1976 § 1977 § 1978 t 1976 3 1977 4 1978

¥ T9000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

'
ARIZ 1/t 319 a5 91-7560 70.0 239925 69120 69370
CALIF 1/8 80 28 115 8060 7000 69400 29100 89050
MINN 3 93 82 95 2905 32.0 29744 20829 35040
MONT 1 295 220 290 ©2900 3160 89555 49840 89990
N MEX 2/4 17 4 7000 19190 296
N OAK 1 39620 29470 39200 2500 3060 909500 609515 = 964000
SOAK 3 160 136 185 1060 2140 19600 39264 39885
us 1 4586 39025 3976 2904 3108 1345914 799964 1269335
1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ BEGINNING 1978 INCLUDED IN WINTER WHEAT.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT

STATE 3 AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELO 1 PRODUCTION

, + t IND ¢ t T_INDt T T RD

4 1976 $ 1977 1 1978 t 1976 $1977 3 1978 + 1976 $ 1977 3 1978

¥ 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

'
colo ist 40 25 32 4000 4040 4000 11600 14000 19280
IDAHO 8 540 360 435 5400 © 5160 © 5640 299160 189360 249360
MINN ‘ 30800 30140 20610 = 3205 = 4040 ©3540 91239500 = 1259600 = 919350
MONT t 29040 29040 19850 2905 2240 ©3060 © 609180 © 44880 © 554500
NEV 1/8 13 12 15-3960 $020 4540 $07 600 675
N OAK 79900 69680 69100 24S 2500 = 3040 © 1939550 1679000 =: 1834000
OREG 1/8 113 70 130-3760 = 3400 3600 49181 29380 40680
SOAK 3 19860 29200 20170 ded 2060 200460 © 519700 = 430400
UTAH 1/1 42 24 230 3100 he 3260 19302 576 736
WASH ot 315 165 B10 36603 38.0 116340 6105 114780
WIS 1/2 29 15 16-3000 ©3360 3100 870 495 434
Wyo oust 35 21 21 2500-2040 2500, 87s 420 525
us 1169727 4 e772 130710 2608 2B 300547525 4199116 179720
1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARO FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

RICE

1 AREA HARVESTED n YLELD A PRODUCTION
STATE 8 + Fy IND 1 ’ v INO ¢ : + IND

i__ 1976 3 1977_1__1978 : i976 t 1977 + 1978 § 1976 + 1977 1978

' 19000 ACRES POUNDS 19000 Cat

’
ARK t 847.0 837.0 1017040 e770 4023040400 = 404362 «= 359396 = S180
CALIF ot = 39900 308.0 508.0 59520 S810 54650 = 229017 = 179913 Be 702
La t $6840 47560 583.0 39910 39670 39700 = 229203179445 = 219571
MISS : 14460 111.0 21 49000 4250 60048 49440 99138
MO Ost 14.0 1760 39700 © 49250 588 629 19020
TEX ‘ 508.0 501.0 49670 49700 249430239400 © 254333
us 12448000 2926940 39039.0 4663 0412 49516 1150648 992231379244

1s ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978

CROP REPORTING BOARD,

ESCS, USDA


INDEX

as]
>
Q
m

BARLEY ......--0--
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE
COFFEE ...........
CORN FOR GRAIN .
COTTON .......
CRANBERRIES ......
CROP PROSPECTS MAP .
FLAXSEED ..

GRAPES
HOPS ......
MINT FOR OIL
NUTS ......65
OATS ....
PAPAYAS ..ccececeeececceeeeereeee
PASTURE AND RANGE FEEO CONOITION .
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAP
PEANUTS FOR NUTS .
PEARS .......--00
PEAS, DRY EDI8LE .
PECANS .......00--
POTATOES .........
PRUNES AND PLUMS .
RICE oe. cece ee eee
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN ..
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS .
SUGARBEETS ......s. eee eeee rece
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED .
SWEETPOTATOES .......eeeeeeeee
TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE .
TOBACCO BY STATES .........
US SUMMARY ......
WHEAT, BY CLASSES
WHEAT, DURUM .....
WHEAT, SPRING a
WHEAT, WINTER . oc ccc cece cece eee e teen e een e eee eee e eee e nen ee en eens

DOVDVPBVDVTDVDVDVDDVMTDTDTSDVVDVVDTTDSOWDVIVVH
i 11
DAADAMWINOHEIUNADROVOGHOHUHUWDDBAUNDHO-BOOF

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 B-19 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

stave ot AREA HARVESTEO ' YIELD : PRODUCTION

c —T T IND + 3 7 INO t t y INO

i 1976 ¢ 1977 1 1978: 1976 3 1977 + 1978 3 1976 3 1977 1978

’ 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 GUSHELS

:
ALA ot 800 375 540 60.0 = 2940 5002 = 482000109875 = 270000
ARIZ 1/1 28 50 45 60,0 = 6000 = 10000 19680 39000 49500
ARK 1/3 45 43 30 56,0 = 5340 5000 29520 20279 19500
CALIF 1/8 290 247 240 11060 © 11660 31900 = 289652 «= -28 800
COLO ' 630 695 630 102.0 = 11640 649260 = 809620 © 669 150
CONN 2/1
DEL 1 195 185 180 88,0 5600 109360 169920
FLA ost 480 299 370, 60,0 3560 109465 220460
GA ’ 20160 19000 19400 6240 24e0 = 5000 1334920 = 249000 = 708000
IDAHO 173 35 28 31 85,0 = 86408640 21975 29608 29666
TLL t 119890 109980 100700 107.0 = 10540-11660 192409130 191529900 192419200
IND ' 69300 69210 5900 11060 10260 10760 = 6934000 6339420 6319300
Towa 1 129900 129400 120100 = 91,0 = B40 =——-11540 191739900 190919200 193919500
KANS 3 19790 19680 14500 96,0 © 9640 © 9840) :1712840 = 1619280 = 1474000
KY 1 19360 19410 19340 102.0 = 9060 = 8640» 138e720 1262900 = 1159240
LA st 71 65 50 66,0 S20 580 49666 39380 25900
MAINE 2/1
40 ° ' 630 600 580 9240 = 7200 = 94a = 570960 = #30200 © S49 520
MASS 2/1
MICH ’ 29230 29250 25150 69,0 8500 = 82401539870 1919250 1769300
MINN ' 59600 69000 64100 59.0 10000 9700 3309400 6009000 = 5919 700
MISS 1/3 172 160 135° 47.0 ©3600 4300 81084 59760 5980S
Mo 1 20850 29700 20200 = 61.0 ©7640 «= Be) 1730850 = 2054200 = 1894200
MONT 1/1 ret 1 n 75.0 68607040 25 748 770
NEBR ' 69100 69350 6300 = 8540 9940) 10720) 5189500 ©2850 ©6744 100
NEV 2/8
NH 2/8
Nga 103 95 90 8640 7060 8440 8,858 69650 79560
NMEX 1 96 116 63 105,40 9060 = 11000 = 109080 109260 69930
NY Wt 873 640 620 76.0 «= 8000 ©7700 © 439548 = 519200) 47 740
NC t 19880 11690 19540 8040 © S100 = 8040 :1500400 = B&4190 =—-123 9200
N DAK 1/3 191 237 240 4040 ©6840 7000 79640 169116 169800
OHIO : 39820 39620 3570 103.0 10540 10340 3939460 3800100 3679710
OKLA 1/2 106 95 70 9540 82007940 109070 79790 59530
OREG ft 10 12 10 90.0 = 95u 9540 900 2921460 950
PA : 19150 19160 14120 90,0 ©9240 © 9040) 10030500 = 1069720 © 1007800
RL 2st
sc ist 667 620 SIS 74,0 3640 = S540 = 499358 = 2293200288325
S$ DAK 3 1s200 20150 29200 31,0 = S940 B40 = 379200 © 1269850 §=— 1494600
TENN 1/8 715 730 650 79,0 «= 6540 7500 = 569485 479450 = 4B 750
TEX 1 19§50 19650 14350 120,40 9800 10060 1869000 1619700 1354000
UTAH 1st 1s 13 16 90,0 © 8940 8B 0 19350 19157 19232
VT 248
va ' 610 560 S80 78,0 «= $520 = B40) 479580 = 300800 © 49 BBO
WASH 1/1 44 48 45 107.0 © 10640 10840 49708 59068 41860
WVA lst 61 54 SB = BB40 THe) 8540 59368 39996 42930
WIS : 20220 29750 25500 684010440 = Hn 3509960 © 2869000 = 2354000
wyo ast 22 30 27 = 8%40 S40 B64 19914 29550 29322
us #719300 709006 674794 BY49 Le 10003 692669359 643709624 697979650

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 B-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


BARLEY: Production of barley in 1978 is forecast at 438 million bushels (9.55 million metric

tons) as of September 1, up 5 percent from last year and fractionally below the August 1
forecast. Yield per acre is forecast at a record 48.1 bushels per acre, 4.3 bushels above fast
year and topping the previous record of 45.8 bushels set in 1971. The 1978 harvested acreage is
4 percent below last year but 10 percent above 1976.

During August, yield prospects declined 2 bushels per acre in North and South Dakato, and 1}
bushel in Montana. Mostly offsetting were higher yields in Idaho--up 2 bushels; Minnesota--up 1
bushel; and Washington--up 4 bushels.

As of September 1, harvest was nearly complete in the North Central States, which was near
normal. However, harvest in Montana and Idaho was only 40 percent and 55 percent complete,
respectively, considerably behind normal.

ALL WHEAT: Production of all wheat is forecast at 1.79 billion bushels (48.7 million metric
tons), 12 percent less than last year's 2.03 billion bushels (55.1 million MT).
Average yield of 31.6 bushels per harvested acre compares with 30.6 bushels last yéar.

WINTER WHEAT: Production of the 1978 winter wheat crop is forecast at 1.24 billion bushels
5 (33.8 million metric tons), 19 percent less than last year's 1.53 billion bushels
(41.6 million metric tons). The lower production resulted from fewer acres harvested for grain.

Growers realized an average yield of 32.0 bushels per acre, up from 31.5 bushels last year.
Area harvested totaled 38.8 million acres (15.7 million hectares), 20 percent Tess than last year.

The winter wheat forecasting period extends to September 1 in Idaho, Montana, Oregon and
Washington. Forecasts for a1] other States were carried forward from previous reports. Harvesting
progressed rapidly in Idaho except in the north where rain slowed progress. In Montana, progress
continues behind normal with only 90 percent combined by September 1. Widespread rains in Oregon
brought grain harvest to a complete halt in eastern areas and the Columbia Basin during the latter
part of August. There are a few reports of sprout damage of the grain remaining in the field in
both Oregon and Washington,

DURUM WHEAT: Durum wheat production is forecast at 126 million bushels (3.44 million metric tons)
which compares with 80.0 million bushels (2.18 million MT } produced tast year.

This is 58 percent above 1977 and 6 percent below the 1976 level. This forecast is 6 percent

lower than the August 1 forecast due to hot, dry weather in the major durum producing area.

Nationally, the yield is expected to average 31.8 bushels per harvested acre compared with
26.4 bushels last year and 29.4 bushels in 1976.

Harvesting continued active through the month, being interrupted by rain only toward. month's
end. By September 1, combining was 41 percent completed in North Dakota compared with 39 percent
normally.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Spring wheat production, other than durum, is forecast at 418 million bushels

(11.4 million metric tons), This production forecast is only slightly lower
than last year, but 7 percent lower than the 1976 production level. The yield forecast at 30.5
bushels compares with 28.4 bushels per harvested acre in 1977 and 26.8 bushels 2 years ago. This
forecast is 4 percent below the previous month, Lower yields in the North Central States were
caused by August's hot, dry weather. Severe insect damage occurred in South Dakota.

The spring wheat harvest was pushed by high temperatures to near normal progress. Combining
is complete in South Dakota,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


GRAPES

? PRODUCTION 1/7
CROP AND STATE ' TOTAL ’ TOTAL IND
i 1y76 Hy 1977 1978
t TONS
GRAPES TABLE TYPE :
CALIF : 4054000 488,000 4254000
GRAPES WINE TYPE '
CALIF 5 19323+000 115639000 19825+000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE OKIED 2/t
CALIF . 1 2834000 2464300
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE NOT ORIED?
CALIF : 9764000 8034000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE :
CALIF : 292509000 159351000 198502000
ALL GRAPES 1
ARIZ 129400 124000 139300
ARK 64500 99600 7500
CALIF : 399789000 319864000 4¥100+000
MICH : 149500 334000 655000
Mo er 19750 39850 41425
NJ ast 750 19100
ny 1 1855000 1014000 190000
NC ast 49580 40650 49700
OrtTO 3st 159000 74100 156500
Pa ' 599000 30+000 524000
wash : 1154900 105600 1554000
OTHER STATES ae srt 4950 44850 59100
us t 443984330 442974750 406121525,
1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PROVUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE
(TONS) US 1976=305+350 (2934000 TONS FRESH
EQUIVALENT RAISIN TYPE IN CALIF LAID» 8UT NOT
HARVESTED OUE TO SEVERE WEATHER DAMAGE), 1977-1,550.
2/ URIED BASIS, 1 TON KAISINS IS EQUIVALENT TO 4,50 TONS
QF FRESH GRAPES FOR 1976 AND 4,56 FOR L977.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
4/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.
5/ GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
PRUNES AND PLUMS
? PRODUCTION }/
CROP AND STATE : TOTAL i TOTAL 7 IND
A 1976 : 1977 3 1978
t TONS
PRUNES (ORIED BASIS) 1
CALIF : 1484000 1579000 1385000
PRUNES AND PLUMS ‘
1DAHO 1 71000 79000 74000
‘WICH 3 169v00 145000 234000
OREG i 314000 284000 159000
ASH 1 239000 129000 209000
TOTAL t 774000 614000 657000
1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION aNO EXCESS CULLAGE
(TONS): TOTAL 1976-3,500, 1977-3,000
CRANBERRIES 1/
: PRODUCTION
STATE | TOTAL : TOTAL : IND
: 1976 : 1977 : 1978
t T,000 BARRELS
MASS 935.0 875.0 950.0
NJ: 276.0 157.0 240.0
OREG 89.3 80.2 92.0
WASH; 103.0 136.0 140.0
WIS: 1,004.0 854.0 860.0
us 2,407.3 2,102.2 2,282.0
I7estr D FOR EARL
CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 B-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



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€SCS, USDA

B-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD,

SEPTEMBER 1978

CROP PRODUCTION,


PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS”
September 1, 1978

ought
BE Extreme drought AS REPORTED BY
‘CROP CORRESPONDENTS

*INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON-IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

USDA NEG. ESCS 78-7819}

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS*
eX September 1, 1977

Oa
en

IG ee

AS AEPORTED BY
(CROP CORRESPONDENTS

GE Extreme drought

INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEEO FOR GRAZING ON NON- IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. SRS 74.7719) STATISTICAL REPORTING SERVICE

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


FEED CROP PROSPECTS*
September 1, 1978

C2 Good to excellent
(3 Fair

© Poor

very poor

ED Near faiture
‘SPONDENTS ON “ALL CROPS

USDA NEG. ESCS 77-78/9)

FEED CROP PROSPECTS*
September 1, 1977

RELATIVE CONDITIONS OR
PROSPECTS AS INDICATED BY
REPORTS FROM CROP CORHE~

'SPONDENTS ON “ALL CROPS~

U. 8. OEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. SRS 73-77(9)

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

’ AKEA HARVESTED 2 YIELD 4 PRODUCTION
STATE t ' + IND i ' t IND t fy : IND

t 1976 4 1977 1978 3 1976 $1977 1 1978 ¢ 1976 8 4977.4 1978

t Te000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

'
ALA ast 31 27 26 3560 3940 15085 729 980
ARIZ ’ a 90 70 7320 78.0 69643 79200 50460
ARK ' 310 252 200 5060 52.0 15+500 139104 100400
CALIF ' 210 132 190 71.0 72.0 149910 91636 135680
coLo t 259 273 275 28.0 3040 79252 89463 84250
GA we 45 24 45 43.0 3740 14935 672 15665
TUL Ve oT 64 65 59,0 63.0 35953 49096 4.095
IND we 2i it) 16 6760 69.0 14407 19170 121046
1OWwA 1/8 26 32 30 65.0 80.0 90 29368 29400
KANS : 39950 49050 45000 43.0 4960 1699850 2439000 196000
KY we eo 32 22 00.0 55.0 19740 19824 19210
LA ve 268 20 16 35.0 31.0 980 660 496
MISS 1/8 4. 24 20 3720 35.0 19517 768 700
MO ' 660 840 800 6000 74.0 399600 619320 595200
NEBR ' 2e100 29130 15900 S700 74.0 1199700 1519230 140,600
N MEX of 199 238 238 6040 5500 110424 139090
NC st 90 72 19 51-0 52.0 29664 46108
OKLA 1 565 565 500 3000 33.0 "219470 16+500
sc ist 15 12 14 34.0 3020 192 420
S OAK y 152 343 300 23-0 4720 169807 149100
TENN 1/78 23 20 26 5200 51.0 19020 19326
TEX : 50800 40800 41600 5065 45.0 2309400 © 2074000
vA Wet ll 10 12 4360 4740 473 430 564
us ' 149723 14065 134446 4869 52.3 7199617 7909647 70353468

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


FOOD GRAIN PRODUCTION DOWN FROM LAST YEAR

Food grain production is expected to total 55.6 million metric tons, 7 percent less than last
year. Indicated production as of September 1 declined 1 percent from August 1, primarily due to
lower prospective yields of spring wheat in the major Northern States. Rice production prospects
increased slightly from last month.

RECORD FEED GRAIN PROSPECTS

Production of the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, oats and barley) is expected to total a
record 209 million metric tons, up 3 percent from the August 1 forecast and the previous record
set last year. Prospects for corn were up5 percent from last month while sorghum was down 1
percent, oats down 6 percent, and barley down slightly.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at a record 6.80 billion bushels (173

million metric tons), 5 percent above the August 1 forecast. Crop prospects as
of September 1 indicate a record average yield of 100.3 bushels per acre, up 4.2 bushels from
last month's forecast and 3.3 bushels above the previous record set in 1972.

Acreage intended for grain harvest is estimated at 67.8 million acres (27.4 million hectares),
up slightly from last month. .

Generally favorable growing conditions throughout most of the Corn Belt have been beneficial
to late maturing fields. As of September 1 harvest was widespread in the south central and south
Atlantic States.

In the east north central States, most of the corn advanced into the dent stage or beyond by
September 3, ranging by States from 50 percent in Wisconsin to 76 percent in Illinois. Mature
stage ratings ranged from 5 percent in Michigan to 35 percent in Illinois.

In the west north central States, dent stage ranged from a low of 44 percent in South Dakota
to a high of 70 percent in Iowa. Mature corn ranged from 5 percent in Minnesota to 20 percent in
Kansas and Idwa. In Minnesota, the corn should be safe from frost by mid-September.

SORGHUM: Grain sorghum production in 1978 is forecast at 703 million bushels (17.9 million

metric tons), | percent less than the August 1 forecast and 11 percent below last
year's crop. Yield prospects declined in the lower half of the Great Plains where most of the
grain sorghum is grown. Only Nebraska showed an increase--5 bushels--among the Plains States.
Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle had very little rain during August. Top soil moisture
was very short, and crop prospects declined.

Based on the September 1 forecast, three States will produce over 75 percent of the grain
sorghum: Texas--29 percent, Kansas--28 percent and Nebraska--20 percent. Texas harvest was com-
plete in southern areas and well along in central and northern areas. Dryland stands were
stressed on the High and Low Plains; recent rains brought some relief but too late for many
stands. Irrigated stands continue to look good. Kansas grain sorghum deteriorated during August.
Hot, dry weather stressed the crop and depleted soil moisture. Development was later than normal,
but the crop was turning color and a few fields harvested. Nebraska grain sorghum development
was Tate with 35 percent turning color compared with 90 percent last year and the normal 55 per-
cent.

OATS: Oats production in 1978 is forecast at 596 million bushels (8.65 million metric tons),

. 20 percent below last year, but 9 percent above 1976. Lower test weights than had been
anticipated earlier largely account for the 6 percent drop from the August 1 forecast. Yields
were down from August 1 in all_of the six major producing States. At 49.9 bushels per acre, the
forecast 1978 yield is down 5.7 bushels from 1977 but up 4.2 bushels from 1976,

Harvest was complete in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa by September 1 but some acreage
remained to be combined in the other three major producing States.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


PEANUTS FOR NUTS

STATE 3 AREA HARVESTED a YIELD t PRODUCTION

Fy 7 t TNO # 7 7 INO ¢ 1 + TND

1 1976 4 19774 1978 t 1976 1 1977 + 1978 3 1976 4 1977 ¢ 1978

1 19000 ACRES POUNDS 1000 POUNDS

1
ALA 4 21400 21500 215.0 29400 29740 29700 5139600 5899100 $80+500
FLA 1 55-0 5500 53.0 39000 39100 39300 165+000 1709500 = 1744900
GA ' 526.0 52600 526.0 29955 29850 39300 195549330 194999100 197359800
MISS U/t 865 700 668 19450 19650 19550 125325 119550 109540
N MEX 1/2 905 904 9.6 29280 29700 24300 219660 259380 229080
NC ' 16640 16600 166.0 29655 29800 4409730 4449050 = 4649800
OKLA oy 12020 12060 120.0 2050 16950 2462000 2679600 2345000
SC iss 1565 1560 15.2 19590 24000 249645 319200 309400
TEX t 30440 30000 301.0 19525 15400 4634600 3949500 4219400
vA t 103.0 103.0 103.0 34000 34000 309,000 2930035 3094000
us 11952165 1951604 19515.6 29465 29457 29628 307502890 397269015 349834420

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTON
state ot AREA HARVESTED 1 YLELO t PRODUCTION 17
AND 1 t 1 INO t 7 tT IND ¢ 7 t IND
CROP 4 1976 + 19774 1978 t 1976 t 1977 t 1978 4 1976 3 1977 4 1978
t 19000 ACRES POUNDS 19000 BALES 27
COTTON» UPLAND
¥ 2060 39500 34060 399 337 409 349.0 27720 29040
1 34000 $1540 538.0 14178 997 14048 834.0 1907060 1917540
t 95000 930.0 78040 392 534 462 77640 19035.0 75040
41912000 1939060 1041060 19064 364 B36 24482.0 20790.0 2445060
Ey) Tel 61 366 514 425 467 7 564 25
t 24000 17040 130.0 398 232 406 82.0 110.0
ast 1.3 8 ase 420 0 7 Tv)
1 $6060 54060 474 583 480 656.0 $0540
1 1947000 1936060 376 581 SLL 1415160 1964540 122540
1 26040 262.0 305 431 453 165.0 235.0 17060
ast Led 1.3 738 598 702 1,7 1.6 169
: 64.0 128.0 523 603 480 7040 161.0 110.0
+ 7140 8360 489 305 410 12.0 35.0
1 33560 52060 251 402 323 17540 37040
t 15940 153.0 436 342 480 14 100.0
t 37040 30060 295 407 401 228, 230.0
$ 450000 © 6045060 353 407 279° 3930760 = 5946540 = 3955060
' +6 . el 480 194 480 +6 3 al
$ 10+86941 13420469 129214,0 noe 519 43510051666 14927760 11407545
AMER-PIMA
3060 4263 29.9 804 738 706 50.3 44.0
el 3 640 269 480 ol ol
' 663 963 ° 476 621 419 662 8.3
’ 860 2265 28.0 444 747 463 To4 27.0
t rye Tae 67.5 692 Tee 565 64.0 7906
COTTON, A .
vs $ 10991305 13927963 129281.5 465 $20 43610058006 14438962 11915449

17 PRODUCTION GINNEO ANO TO 81
2/ 480-L8, NET WEIGHT BALES,

iE GINNEDs

3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARO FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION (Qe

SN
Released: September 12, 1978 Economics, Statistics, &
3:00 P.M. ET Cooperatives Service
US. Department

of Agriculture

Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN production is forecast at a record 6.80 billion bushels (173 million metric
tons), 5 percent above the August 1 forecast and 7 percent above the previous
record set last year. The 90 percent confidence interval for this 1978 pro-
duction forecast is 6.26 to 7.34 billion bushels.

SORGHUM GRAIN production is forecast at 703 million bushels (17.9 million metric
tons), down 11 percent from last year.

FEED GRAIN production (corn, sorghum, oats and barley combined) is forecast at a
record 209 million metric tons, 3 percent above last year.

ALL WHEAT production is placed at 1.79 billion bushels (48.7 million metric tons),
2 percent less than last year and 2 percent below last month. Compared with
last year, winter wheat production is down 19 percent, other spring wheat down
less than 1 percent and durum wheat up 58 percent. The 90 percent confidence
interval for this 1978 al? wheat production forecast is 1.75 to 1.83 billion

bushels.

FOOD GRAIN production (wheat, rye, and rice combined) is expected to total 55.6
million metric tons, 7 percent less than in 1977.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at a record high 1.77 billion bushels (48.2 million
metric tons), 3 percent larger than the 1977°crop and slightly above the
August 1 forecast. The 90 percent confidence interval for this 1978 production

forecast is 1.66 to 1.89 billion bushels.

OILSEED production (soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts and flaxseed combined) is fore-
cast at 54.3 million metric tons compared with 53.8 million metric tons last

year.

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 11.2 million bales, 22 percent below 1977 and
6 percent below the August 7 forecast. The 90 percent confidence interval
for this 1978 praduction forecast is 9.8 ta 12.5 million bales.

RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Forecasts in this report reflect evaluations of probable crop pro-
duction about September 1. For many reasons, final end-of-season
estimates may differ from these forecasts. Yields, in particular,
are subject to influences of weather through harvest. The 90 per-
cent confidence interval is based on past deviations between fore-
casts and final production estimates. Additional information to
assist data users in assessing reliability of the September 1 fore-
casts is provided on Page A-5.

CrPr 2-2 (9-78) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


U.S. SOYBEANS
MIL. ACRES OR BU./ACRE BIL. BU.
60 |- 7 15
40 Harvested acres 7 1.0
it tig, on
ang a
¢ 40.5
0 po a i 0
1965 1970 1975 1980
Asepr 1 FORECAST.
usa NEG. cno 78-78.0)

FLAXSEED: Flaxseed production is forecast at 11.3 million bushels (288 thousand metric tons), up
2 percent from last month's forecast but down 30 percent from last year's crop.

Yield prospects in Minnesota remain unchanged from a month earlier, However, North Dakota
is showing a 1.0 bushel per acre increase from last month and South Dakota a 1.0 bushel per acre
decrease,

Development of the crop has lagged behind normal due to the late season, Harvesting ef-
forts have been slowed by high humidity and wet weather.

PEANUTS: Peanut production as of September 1 is forecast at a record high 3.98 billion pounds

(1.81 million metric tons net weight), up 2 percent from the August 1 forecast and 7
percent above the 3.73 billion pounds (1.69 million metric tons) produced in 1977. The indicated
yield per acre of 2628 pounds is 63 pounds above last month's forecast and 171 pounds above last
year. Area to be harvested for peanuts this year is 1.52 million acres (613 thousand hectares),
virtually the same as 1977,

The Virginia-North Carolina area expects to produce 774 million pounds, up 5 percent from
1977. The indicated yield of 2877 is up 137 pounds from a year ago. The Virginia-North Carolina
crop is maturing under near ideal conditions with most areas receiving timely rainfall during
August.

In the Southeastern area, 2.53 billion pounds are expected, 10 percent more than last year's
production. Acreage for harvest is 816 thousand acres, down 2 thousand from last year. Indicated
yield at 3103 pounds is up 289 pounds from a year earlier. Both Georgia and Florida are expect-
ing record high yields with harvest still in the early stages. Dry weather in the Southeast has
slowed harvest in some areas but good yields are still expected,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


RICE: Production of the 1978 rice crop is forecast at a record high 137 million hundredweight

(6.23 million metric tons), 38 percent more than last year's 99.2 million cwt. (4.50
million metric tons). The larger production comes from both higher yields and increased acreage
for harvest. The production forecast is up slightly from the August 1 forecast as producers
expect to harvest slightly more acres.

Nationally, the growers expect average yields of 4516 pounds per harvested acre, up 104
pounds from last year.

The rice crop has progressed at a normal rate in most areas. Most of the acreage is headed
in California. Harvest neared completion in Texas with second growth rating good. Louisiana
harvest is past the three-quarter mark. Combining was just getting underway in Arkansas.

SOYBEANS: As of September 1, soybean production is forecast at a record high 1.77 billion

bushels (48.2 million metric tons), up slightly from the August 1 forecast, 3 percent
above a year ago and 38 percent above the 1976 crop. Yield prospects, at 28.0 bushels per acre,
are down 1.6 bushels from last year, but 1.9 bushels per acre above 1976.

Yield prospects in the North Central area were unchanged or improved since August 1} in all
States except Kansas and Michigan. The Illinois yield at 34.0 bushels is unchanged from last
month and the Iowa yield at 35.0 bushels is up 1.0 bushel. Increases in prospective yields from
a month earlier also occur in Missouri, Indiana and Onio--each up 1.0 bushel per acre.

In the South Central States prospects remained unchanged or declined from August 1. Both
Mississippi and Arkansas expect yields of 20.0 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushel from the
August 1 forecast.

Yields of 21.0 bushels in South Carolina and 23.0 bushels in Georgia are both up 1.0 bushe?
from last month's forecast. These are the only South Atlantic States showing increases from a
month earlier.

MINT FOR OIL: The peppermint for oil crop is forecast at 5.92 million pounds (2.68 thousand

metric tons), up 1 percent from the previous month's forecast and 34 percent above
production in 1977. While rains during August cut yields in Wisconsin, favorable growing condi-
tions increased yields in Indiana and Washington. Yields in Idaho and Oregon were unchanged from
the August 1 forecast.

The spearmint for oil crop is forecast at 3.19 million pounds (1.44 thousand MT), up 6 per-
cent from the August 1 forecast and 37 percent above 1977. Yields declined from the August 1
forecast in Indiana and Wisconsin, but were unchanged in Idaho and higher in Michigan and
Washington.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: Prune production (dried basis) in California is forecast at 138 thousand tons
125 thousand metric tons). This is a 3 percent decline from the most recent

(July 1) forecast and 12 percent below the 1977 total, Harvest is well underway and should be

completed by mid-September with continued favorable weather conditions. .

The Prune and plum crops in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon and Washington are expected to total
65.0 thousand tons (59.0 thousand metric tons), oniy slightly belaw the forecast a month ago but
7 percent ahead of the 1977 output.

Michigan's bumper crop of 23.0 thousand tons is about one-fourth harvested and is behind normal
because of cool spring weather which delayed fruit development. In Oregon, early Italians have
been harvested, Miltons are underway, and picking of Brooks will begin in mid-September. Recent
rains in the Willamette Valley have caused brown rot and splitting, The Milton-Freewater crop has
been harvested, Washington harvest of early varieties was wrapped up in late August and picking
of the late crop has begun. Quality of the fruit has been very good.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 AV) CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


PEARS

3 PRODUCTION 1/7
CROP AND STATE ? TOTAL 7 TOTAL ? TRO
z 1976 3 1977 4 1978
fy TONS
PEARS BARTLETT :
CALIF 1 3659000 3264000 2759000
OREG : 759000 801000 $7000
WASH 3 1404000 1386000 120+000
TOTAL : 5809000 9445000 4529000
PEARS EXCLUDING BARTLETT 1
CALIF $ 84500 8y600 64000
OREG : 1259000 100000 1009000
WASH : 949000 869000 951000
TOTAL t 2279500 1949600 203-000
ALL PEARS t
CALIF t 3739500 3345600 2831000
coLo ass 69400 64900 19800
CONN ark 700 12600 19500
TOaHO ast 26000 19800
MICH 1 79000 129000 165000
NY + +000 169000 18+50n
OREG ' 200+000 1809000 1579000
PA ert 3700 49700 3+300
Tan are 5 +300 59000 26600
WASH ' 2346000 2244000 2154000
Us ’ 8409600 7869600 6985700

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE

(TONS): US 1976=2090005 1977=201006
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIEK FORECAST,
3/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1977 CROP.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONUITION 1/

STATE AVERAGE, 1977 1974 STATE AVERAGE 1977 1978
1967-76 1967+76
PERCENT PERCENT

ALA B2 63 8 NEV “80 69 86
ARIZ 15 73 67 NH 80 78 a4
ARK 7 72 54 NJ 1 87 86
CALIF 7% 39 98 N MEX 16 8) 70
coLo 75 72 61 ny 83 78 1
CONN 7 78 88 NC 83 o1 67
OeL 76 ss 3&8 N UAK 66 “9 67
FLA a 75 68 OHIO 83 88 84
Ga 2 55 1% OKLA 73 80 53
TOAHO 83 69 6S UREG 19 99 7
TLL 80 87 73 Pa 81 85 82
IND 43 90 By RI 79 80 9%
Towa 17 76 82 sc 80 52 60
KANS 72 90 $9 S GAK 62 71 89
ny 68 92 oo TENN 80 76 an
La 80 80 10 TEX 70 $8 46
MAINE aL 79 56 UTAH 19 61 68
MD 80 14 85 VT 80 64 77
Mass 78 78 85 va 86 So 94
MICK 76 1 7S wasH 76 5s 92
MINN 67 71 87 # VA 87 ta 92
MISS Bi 71 75 «1S 70 79 yo
on) 66 78 1S wyo 82 75 92
MONT al 60 97

NEBR 68 89 80 us 7 71 7s

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT» 80 AND OVER} POOR TO FAIR: 65~795 VERY POURs 50-645 SEVERE
DROUGHT» 35-495 EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 356

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 3978 B-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



SUGARBEETS

1 AREA HARVESTED t YIELO t PRODUCTION
STATE 4 t ' INO t 1 ry IND t 1 ’ IND
4__1976 + 1977 4 1978 t+ 1976! 1977 t 1978 + 1976 + 1977 1 1978
’ T1000 ACRES TONS 19000 «TONS
t
ARIZ 1/3 17.0 1268 15.5 2360 2203 2004 391 285 316
CALIF 1/3 200.0 2600 2640 89912 59642 5+200
coLo 1 86.0 19.5 1 29303 19404 19634
ToaAHO 11 128.0 1965 29879 29094 20560
KANS ' 2660 1667 TH 401 468
MAINE 2/8 000 56 0
MICH t 90.0 1668 2160 19540 19796 19620
MINN : 26140 1862 39026 49732 49489
MONT ' 4502 19.9 968 896 881
NEBR 74.0 2060 15690 19354 19406
N MEX 3/t Bel 19.2 20 23 42
N DAK 158.0 17.68 20022 29769 25828
OHIO t 2363 20.3 617 4s7 419
OREG ot 8.5 2501 2501 364 206 213
TEX ’ 2400 2106 1703 503 309 444
UTAH 1 1266 1766 1747 317 173 219
WASH ot 7000 2heh = By 19862 19495 19820
WYO 1 4 4729 207 1946 19167 934
us 1 19678.8 1927261 1929 2065 299386 249985 259493
1/ RELATES TO YEAR OF HARVEST.
2/ NONE PLANTED IN 1977 OR 1978.
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED
1 AREA HARVESTED H YIELO + PROOUCTION
STATE 1 + IND t 7 + IND a + + TNO
1976 1 19773 _4978 | 4976 1 4977 1 1978 + 1976 3 1977 4 1978
19000 ACRES TONS 1000 ‘TONS
FLA 298.0 30060 310.0 © 3266 2969 3100 9971S 89970 99610
Haw 10667 10365 10663 0 8707 = B47 = 9361. 99362 99176 104083
La 315.0 322.0 30 25.6 2 2260 89065 79695 69600
TEX 27.3 3349 34, 3568 29% 3160 978 989 19063
us 74700 75904 75206 3706 35433643 289120 269830 274 356
HOPS:
1 AREA HARVESTED A YIELO 1 PRODUCTION 17
STATE o¢ ' % IND ¢ 7 T IND s 7 t TNO
i 1976 1 1977 3 197B_ 1976 } 1977 ¢ 1976 + 1976 3 1977 3 1978
' 19000 ACRES POUNDS 19000 POUNDS
CALIF ot 1.5 165 1.65 15630 19600 29490 29445 29400
IDAHO 3 3.0 2.9 2.7 19770-19720 59160 $9133 41646
OREG ' 5 5.5 19690 19600 81964 99295 84800
WASH ot ale 20. 21.3 19840 19850419160 = 379904 = 394405
us t 3009 30.5 31.0 14796 19782 = 570774 = Sus777 55249

1/ 1978 QUANTITIES AVAILABLE FOR MARKET WILL BE GOVERNED
BY REGULATIONS ISSUEO UNDER FEDERAL MARKET ORDER 991.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978

B-14

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


AUGUST WEATHER SUMMARY

As August began, the season's first tropical storm hit the south central Texas coast. Trop-
ical Storm Amelia rapidly decreased in wind velocity but spread large amounts of rain from Corpus
Christi to San Antonio and northward to southwestern Oklahoma. Some areas were flooded by more
than 10 inches during the week. Elsewhere, cool air swept into the north central States and
moved eastward. As the moisture-laden air from the south encountered the cool air, severe weather
and heavy rains occurred from Tennessee to the Appalachians and northward to southern New England.

Unusually warm weather settled over the Far West in early August. In the second week,
temperatures averaged 9 to 12 degrees warmer than normal. Red Bluff, California, watched the
mercury climb to 119° on two days during the week of August 7 to 13, while southern Washington
and northern Idaho reached 105°. At tke end of the period, a weak cool front broke the pattern.
Also during the second week of August, most of the heaviest rain was in areas east of the
Mississippi River. In the Southeast, many points accumulated two inches or more of rain. Un-
fortunately, the rain was spotty in Georgia, where soils were dry, and many areas had little or
no relief.

The week of mid-August (14th to 20th) brought masses of cool Canadian air into the north-
western U.S., and autumnlike temperatures prevailed in the Plateau and the Rockies. The sizzling
heat of early August dropped to near-normal readings on the West Coast but little or no rain fell
‘in California and Nevada. Warmer than normal weather blanketed the eastern U.S. Severe weather
dominated the northern Plains, and Michigan got some much-needed rain although the inundating
downpours were not welcome, Intense storms also hit the Gulf Coast and Florida

The week of August 21 to 27 was cool in the West and New England and hot in the Plains and
East. Temperatures in the central Plains averaged 9 to 10 degrees warmer than normal, with some
daily readings reaching over 100°. In contrast, Alamosa, Colorado, equaled a record low reading
of 36° and a one day high reading in Burlington, Vermont, reached only 58°. Severe weather again
plagued the upper Mississippi Valley as the very warm, moist air from the South was lifted by the
cooler air from the West. Heavy downpours drenched Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Local flood-
ing occurred in these areas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were reported in most other areas
east of the Rockies. An exception was the area of northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, north-
eastern Texas, and southeastern Oklahoma where rain has been scarce most of the summer. An
easterly wave dumped heavy rain on the southern tip of Louisiana at the end of the week.

August went out as it had come in. An easterly wave in the Gulf of Mexico become Tropical
Storm Debra which curved northward and entered the coast between Port Arthur, Texas, and Lake
Charles, Louisiana. Torrential rains fell in a narrow area around the storm as it sped north-
ward. A tornado, spawned by Debra, caused property damage and some injuries in Memphis.

EROP_ DEVELOPMENT

August rains kept soil moisture in row crop production areas adequate to support good plant
growth except in the South, Dry soils particularly in the western South Central States and the
Southeast stressed cotton, soybeans, and some grain sorghum,

Corn rated good on September 1, with some excellent prospects in the Corn Belt and some poor con-
ditions in the Southeast. In the East North Central States more than half the corn advanced into the
dent stage or beyond by the beginning of September, and the amount of mature corn ranged by ‘States
from 5 to 35 percent, In the West North Central States, dent stage ranged from 44 to 70 pércent
and mature corn 5 to 20 percent. Some very early Kansas Corn was harvested, Minnesota corn
should be safe from frost by mid-September. In the South, maturity was well advanced and harvest
ranged from 5 to 61 percent; most States fell between 30 and 40 percent.

North Central States soybeans rated good, Pod set was complete, leaves turned yellow, and
some early stands shed leaves, Soybeans in northern areas should be safe from frost by mid-month,
Dry soils and high temperatures stressed the southern crop. Pod set was not complete but early
stands shed leaves and a few were mature because of the hot, dry weather,

Cotton rated mostly fair; dry soils stressed stands and forced plants to shed bolls. Bolls
opened earlier than average but later than last year. Harvest extended from California to Texas
on September 1 and was just starting in Mississippi. By September 3 grain sorghum harvest ad-
vanced to 67 percent in Texas, ahead of recent years; harvest was underway in Oklahoma and Kansas.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT

t AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELD t PRODUCTION
STATE ot t + IND t 7 7 IND ¢ t t TRO

£ 1976 4 1977_3 1978 3 1976 3 1977 3 1978 ¢ 1976 + 1977 + 1978

' 19000 ACRES BUSHELS 19000 BUSHELS

1
ALA we 8s 99 65 27.0 26.0 27.0 21295 29520 1755
ARIZ 1/8 2 $s 47 75.0 7000 85400 39960 39290
ARK st 630 660 320 39.0 3540 249570 259740 119200
CALIF 1/t B60 650 580 62,0 58.0 535320 419600 339640
COLO 1/t 29400 29550 29350 21.5 22.0 519600 569100 519700
OEL 1st 40 cr 28 35.0 35.0 19400 19054 980
FLA we “4 13 1 30.0 3600 420 377 396
GA wv us 100 130 31.0 3460 3556S 39300 49420
IDAHO ' 890 830 780 44.0 50.0 399160 329370 399000
TL wv 19850 19590 950 3920 37.0 729150 689370 350150
IND we 19500 14260 750 36.0 39.0 542000 55800 299250
IOWA 1/t 130 8s ss 38.0 3640 49550 39145 19980
KANS 1/3 129100 104300 30.0 3060 3399000 3449850 = 3099000
KY ve 27 195 31.0 3540 109230 109138 69825
La we 27 20 33.0 32.0 759 918 640
MD we 118 102 38.0 39.0 59264 45366 35978
MICK 1/3 825 420 38.0 3940 339060 339000 164380
MINN 1/8 105 60 26.0 30,0 49238 39465 19800
MISS 1st 105 85 29.0 34.0 31.0 39480 39570 29635
MO rv) 19550 840 3320 39.0 34.0 569080 609450 285560
MONT : 29800 2600 32.0 2960 34.0 989560 819200 889400
NEBR 1/8 29950 29600 32.0 35.0 32.0 949400 1034250 831200
NEV ast 16 h 65.0 6060 65.0 19170 960 m5
NJ we 42 33 42.0 31-0 38.0 20310 19302 19254
N MEX 1/t 245 421 332 23.0 2160 2000 59635 81841 61640
NY wv 175 175 7S 38.0 3960 35.0 61650 69825 29625
NC Ve 240 200 17s 29.0 3000 34.0 69960 61000 57950
N DAK OL/T 135 104 125 28.0 2320 28.0 34780 29392 39500
OHIO 1/t 19600 15540 10125 40.0 47.0 38.0 649000 720380 429750
OKLA 1/t 69300 69500 59600 24.0 27.0 27.0 1512200 1759500 151,200
OREG t 19220 19130 19060 46.0 3860 4400 569120 429940 467640
PA wi 300 270 245 3060 3360 33.0 99000 8910 8,085
sc it 125 95 82 26.0 2960 34.0 39250 20755 25788
S DAK 17% 970 680 700 18.0 2500 2740 179460 179000 18,900
TENN 1/8 300 260 220 3760 3660 35.0 llsl00 109080 7700
TEX vt 49700 49700 25700 22.0 2520 20.0 1039400 1179500 54,000
UTAK 1/3 222 180 177 23.5 23.0 27.0 Se2k7 49140 4s779
vA ist 240 205 150 32.0 3160 36.0 79680 69355 59400
WASH 1 29885 29800 25450 46.0 34.0 48.0 1329710 959200 1177600
wVA 1/8 Mu 10 10 32.0 3160 32.0 352 310 320
wIS we 64 60 28 37.0 43.0 4060 29368 29580 19120
WYO ist 295 260 260 24.0 20.0 29.0 71080 59200 79540
us 3 499460 489419 381846 31.5 3165 3 195599923 195269713 192439685

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST«

WHEAT: PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES
WINTER SPRING TOTAL
YEAR FARO OFT TAR :
RED RED wire: pee DURUM} WHITE
~T, 000 BUSHELS
1975 1,058,063 326,208 256,125 326,594 123,362 -32,107-—2,122,459
1976 755840 336,555 2473528 411,127 134,914 36,398 2,142,362
1977 993,072 341,334 1927307 397,479 79,964 21,637 2,025,793
1978 1/ 42,484 199,408 201,793 384,854 126,335 32,866 ~—*1, 787,740
1/_ INDICATED SEPTEMBER I, 1978.
CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


Toeaccu

STATE 3 AREA HARVESTEO : YIELO : PRODUCTION

: 7 ? IND = t IND ¢ 3 t IND

H 1976 $977.4 1978 t_1976 1977 1978 t 1976 3 1977 +1978

¢ ACHES POUNDS $9000 POUNDS

t
aca V/ 3 640 sso S20 19800 14900 19800 1eis2 19045 936
CONN = ¢ = 4 S50 3500 36510 19580 1606 = 19566 79189 59620 59495
FLA 3 169350119860 114000 2r148 = 24094 = 29050 30982B © 24798 = 2250
GA $ 689000 = 659000610000 19820-2075) 2¥250 «= :123¥760 1349875 1374250
IND 2 75500 6900 61600 29420 2400 29450 186150 164560 169170
Ky t 2079000 1964750 1894200 29403-25297 24396 4971401 4529024 © 4534401
ta loa 140 140 140 700 850 800 98 ng 112
MO 4 239000 = 238000 © 23000 19300 «1,310 = 19350 © 298900 300130 = 319050
MASS : 10 19160 990 19525 1964319515 19845 06 19500
Mo 1/ & 28400 24500 29400 26190 24340 24250 $0256 59850 52400
NC $ 4489000 3921600 3984500 2015 14896 29067 = 9029930 7449525 = 8234725
OHIO = t 115100 109400 = 109100 2¥103 2n243 29271 239343 229283 224935
Pa + 139500 139500 «139500 15750 1494015880 239625 264190254380
sc 3 759000 68000 704000 24045 24040 © 29150 © 1534375 1384720 1504500
TENN $8450 684460 «679220 24040 «19997 2136 © 1399668 = 1364746 1434600
VA $  BGy760 794700 = 739250 «e773 179% = 19848 «1539878 1424985 1354396
wval/ et 19800 14600 19500 19790 29020 = 19700 30222 39232 26550
wis 3 119106 129050 120100 = 19821-20059 1 e802 209209 249809 219810
us 1100440520 9578650 9440530 29045 19997 217 201359629 199129617 199990760

Vv

ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


UNITEC STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION —
CROP INDICATE

: W977 t > 1977: 1977s RUST SEPT

: 7 1978 1 1978 11978: 1978

: HECTARES METRIC TONS
CORN FOR GRAIN 128 330730 27.435 5505.71 6.29 161 821 300 165 188 630 172 668 260
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN : 5 691 960 5 441 460 3.53 3:28 20 083 360 18 096 890 17 865 860
OATS 15441 670 4 836 4507.99 1179 10.855 940-9 242 910-8 649 160
BARLEY 13.840 510 3685110 2.36 2159 9 053 040 9 589 430 9 545 660
ALL WHEAT 126 796 960 22 877940 2.06 2113 85 133 05049 449 560 48 654 320

WINTER 119 594 690 15720590 2.12 2:15 41 550 320 33 976 020 33 847 560

DURU :1 224190 1 609050 1.78 214 2176 260 3 648 520 3 438 280

OTHER SPRING ©: 5 978 080 5548 300 ‘1.91 2:05 «17 406 470-17: 825 020 11 368 480
RICE 1 910 150 1 229 850 4 5.06 4500 680 6 188 630 6 225 280
SOYBEAN FOR BEANS :23 436 000 25 603 930 9 1188 «46 710 960 48 036 080 48 235 B40
FLAXSEED : 572 230 374 740 i 0.77 409 090 «283 380-288 250
PEANUTS FOR NUTS : 613670 613 350 5 2195 1 690 080 1 763 6401 806 840
COTTON :§ 374 000 4 970 200 0.49 3.132 860 2.573 470 2 428 680
DRY EDIBLE BEANS : 511 080 595 100 1.46 738 810 «878 560 ——-86B 220
DRY EDIBLE PEAS : «67 580 79720 0.69 1196 46 400 151 230 ~=—«*186 400
POTATOES :

SUMMER : 46 620 45.410 21.39 20.99 997 080 «962 110-4953. 130
SWEETPOTATOES : 45490 47 9601236 12196 562 220 «609 260-627 420
TOBACCO : 387 570 382-230-224 2137 867 450 890 360 907 070
SUGARBEETS : 492180 «514 810 46.05 44.92 22 666 O10 23 325 530 23 126 860
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR :

AND SEED : 307 320 © 304.570 79,20 81.48 24.339 770 24-770 680 24 816 950
PEPPERMINT FOR OIL : 35 170 42 250 0.06 0:06 2 000 2 660 2 680
SPEARMINT FOR OL : 15 O10 19 140 OLo7 0.08 1 060 1 370 1 440
HOPS : 12 340 12550 2.01 2100 24 850 25 210 25 060
PEARS : 713 590 «606 630 «633-850
GRAPES : 3.898 900 4 184 390 4 184 390
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF): 142 430 «1/128 820 125 190
PRUNES AND PLUMS”:

(EXCL CALIF) 55 340 59 420 58 970
CRANBERRIES : 95 380 2/103 510
PECANS : 107 320 100 380
FILBERTS : 10 760 Yo 700
WALNUTS : 174 630 «154 220-145 150
TOULY T1578. 27 RELEASED AUGUST 29, 1976,

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(NETRIC TONS)
7 AREA HARVESTED : YIELD PER HECTARE : PRODUCTION
crop 7 : cl : 7 INDTO
1 17 : my: 7 ty: 1977 : 1978 1/
HECTARES METRIC TONS

RYE : 280 850 433. 020 1.54 1.68 431 770 725 640
ALL HAY : 24480 910 24 788 880 4186 5.05 118 892 910 125 207 820

ALFALFA: 10 961 030 ‘11-152 850 6.66, 6.87 72 964 870 76 643 500

ALL OTHER : 13.519 880 13 636 030 3.40 3.56 45 928 040 48 564 320
POTATOES

WINTER 5 420 5 100 22.26 24.60 120 650 125 460

SPRING 36 990 36 710 28.08 22.28 1 037 360 817 730
APPLES, COM'L : 3.018 910 3-336 610
PEACHES : 1 356 690 1-183 230
SWEET CHERRIES: 134 080 124 560
TART CHERRIES : 95 660 79 020
APRICOTS : 133 720 107 230
NECTARINES

(CALIF) : 136 080 131 540
PLUMS (CALIF) : 142 430 117 930
ALMONDS :

(CALIF) 225 890 154 220

7 ESTIMATES CARTED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-4

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS USDA


Fire-cured growers expect to harvest a crop totaling 50.1 million pounds (22.7 thousand MT),
4 percent less than a year earlier. A 10 percent decline in acreage accounts for the Tower pro-
duction. Yield per acre is indicated at 1696 pounds, up 98 pounds from last year.

Burley production is expected to total 622 million pounds (282 thousand MT), one percent
above a year earlier. A 3 percent decline in acreage was offset by higher yields. The average
yield per acre of 2400 pounds compares with 2298 pounds last year. The crop got off toa slow
start in most States but with generally good weather during August, the crop continued to improve,

Southern Maryland tobacco production is forecast at 31.1 million pounds (14,1 thousand MT),
up 3 percent from jast year.

Dark air-cured prospects indicate a 21.9 million pound crop (9.94 thousand MT), an increase
of 3 percent from the 1977 production of 21.2 miltion pounds (9,61 thousand MT). Both acres for
harvest and yield per acre are up from last year.

All cigar type production is forecast at 57.1 million pounds (25.9 thousand MT), 8 percent
below a year earlier. Production of cigar-filler types is down 4 percent, cigar-binder types
down 10 percent and cigar-wrapper types down 18 percent.

SUGARBEETS: Sugarbeet production is forecast at 25.5 million tons (23.1 million metric tons),
an increase of 2 percent over the 1977 production of 25.0 million tons (22.7 million
MT). Indicated yield at 20.0 tons per acre compares with last year's yield of 20.5 tons. Acres

for harvest placed at 1.27 million acres (515 thousand hectares) is 5 percent larger than the
1977 harvested acreage.

Sugarbeets are developing well in California, but are 1-2 weeks behind normal. The crop in
Colorado is very good as irrigation water has been plentiful thoughout the growing season.
Development is slightly behind normal in Nebraska.

Limited harvest of the Minnesota crop is expected to start by mid-September. Beets in
Michigan are expected to have an excellent sugar content but August dry weather lowered prospects
for the crop.

Harvest of the North Dakota crop is underway. The unusually hot temperatures will delay
harvest. Warmer weather during August in Montana helped sugarbeets put on tonnage. The Ohio
crop has been in slight stress throughout the growing season because of dry weather. Good
September rains would greatly increase tonnage.

Conditions are good in Washington with harvest expected to begin in late September. Texas
growers were applying leaf spot control spray and preparing for harvest which is expected to
begin in early October.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 27.4 million tons (24.8

million metric tons), up fractionally from the August 1 forecast. If realized, this
production would be 2 percent above 1977. All States except Louisiana are higher than last year
for both acreage and yield, Yield is placed at 36.3 tons per acre, up a ton from 1977.

Cane continued to make good progress in Florida although many fields still show signs of the
cold winter.

The Louisiana crop made good growth in August. Planting is expected to start in early Sep-
tember.

Growing conditions have generally been favorable in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
Irrigation continued active as only scattered showers occurred in August.

Showers were frequent on the Island of Hawaii while rainfall was light on the other producing
Islands of Hawaii. Irrigation supplies are ample, however, from previous rains.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CRANBERRIES: The Nation's 1978 cranberry crop was forecast as of August 15 at 2.28 million bar-

rels (104 thousand metric tons), up 9 percent from last year's total but 5 percent
below the record 1976 level. Improvements from last year were registered in every producing
State.

In Massachusetts, production is expected to total 950 thousand barrels, 9 percent higher
than last season and 2 percent above the 1976 crop. The lack of damaging spring frosts and
favorable temperatures and rainfall have been conducive to good cranberry development. The Wis-
consin crop is forecast at 860 thousand barrels, slightly above last year's output but 14 percent
under the record 1976 level. Cold, wet spring weather slowed early development of the crop but
the abundant moisture helped replenish water supplies. Warm August temperatures have benefited
berry sizing,

New Jersey's production, at 240 thousand barrels, is 53 percent above last season's short
crop but 13 percent below the record 1976 output. Crop prospects are good at this time despite
the effects of heavy July and August rains in some bogs having inadequate drainage systems.

In the West, Washington's crop is forecast at 140 thousand barrels, 3 percent above last
year and 36 percent ahead of the 1976 production. Minimal winter damage and warm spring weather
got bogs off to an early start. Cool, wet weather hindered pollination and set in some bogs.
Oregon production is expected to total 92.0 thousand barrels, up 15 percent from last season and
3 percent above the 1976 total. Very good bud development and fruit set took place despite some
‘insect and disease problems.

PAPAYAS: Hawaii papaya production during September is forecast at 4.30 million pounds (1950

metric tons), a 14 percent reduction from the August production of 5.00 million pounds
(2270 MT). Production is expected to increase in October to 5.30 million pounds (2400 MT), and
continue increasing into November with 5.90 million pounds (2680 MT). A year end drop is expect-
ed in December, forecast at 5.00 million pounds (2270 MT). Utilized production levels are expect-
ed to be lower than last year for each of the final four months of this year.

August's estimated total area in crop at 3115 acres (1260 hectares) is 40 acres Tess than
duly's total. The area being harvested increased 55 acres from July with an estimated 2160 acres
(870 hectares) harvested in August.

PECANS: The 1978 pecan crop is initially forecast at 221 million pounds (100 thousand metric
tons), 6 percent less than last year but more than double the short 1976 crop.

Alabama pecans have suffered from wet weather, scab and insects. Many trees have no nut
set this year. In Arkansas, dry weather during the growing season caused heavy shedding. Florida
prospects are very good although heavy rains early in the month caused some disease problems.
In Georgia where prospects point to the second largest crop of record, trees have extremely heavy
sets. Limb breakage is the biggest problem facing growers at this time. In Louisiana, dry weath-
er during July and August contributed to a heavier than normal drop. North Carolina pecan trees
had a good nut set, however the drop has been heavy. In Oklahoma, drought conditions have severe-
ly limited the size of nuts. The pecan crop in South Carolina is generally in good condition.
Oroppage is normal and there has been little damage from insects and disease. In Texas, a late
season Cold spell at the end of April froze same leaves back in the Trans-Pecos area. Lack of
moisture over the State was a problem during most of the growing season. Casebearer infestations
were particularly heavy in central and south central Texas, especially in non-treated trees.

FILBERTS: Oregon and Washington filbert production is forecast at 11.8 thousand tons (10.7 thou-
sand metric tons), the same as last year but 64 percent above the 1976 crop. Both

States had favorable weather during bloom and pollination, The crop is expected to mature ear-

lier than last year. In Oregon, nut sizes are larger with more brown stain noticeable. In

Washington, there are more single and double nuts and fewer triple nuts than a year ago.

WALNUTS: Production of walnuts in California is forecast at 160 thousand tons (145 thousand met-
ric tons), 17 percent below last season's crop and 13 percent below the 1976 crop. Hot

weather during early August caused more than usual sunburn in northern California. Sunburn damage

is normal in the San Joaquin Valley. Crop condition is very good on the South Coast. Nut sizes
are comparable with last season but the set is below normal,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

CROP AND UNIT

oct : SEPT

: : : 1978 __: 1978
T, 000 ACRES T, 000

CORN FOR GRAIN BU 70,006 67,794 91.0 100.3 6,370,624 6,503,190 6,737,650

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN " 14,065 13,446 56.2 52.3 790,647 712,443 703,348

OATS " : 13,447 11,951 55.6 49.9 747,914 636,785 595,879

BARLEY " : 9,490 9,106 «= 43.8 = 48.1 415,803 440,439 438,429

ALL WHEAT " : 66,216 56,532 30.6 += 31.6 += 2,025,793 1,816,960 1,787,740

WINTER " : 48,419 38,846 «= 31.5 = 32.0 1,526,713 1,248,405 1,243,685

DURUM " 3,025 3,976 «= 26.4 31.8 79,964 °134,060 "126,335

OTHER SPRING " 14,772 13,710 28.4 = 30.5 419,116 434,495 417,720
RICE CWT 1/ =: 2,249.0 3,039.0 4,412 «4,516 99,223 136,436 137,244
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS BU- : 57,911 63,268 29.6 28.0 1,716,334 1,765,024 1,772,364
FLAXSEED " 1,414 926 11.4 12.3 16,105 11,156" 11,348
PEANUTS FOR NUTS LB 1,516.4 1,515.6 2,457 2,628 ~—«3, 726,015 3,888,170 3,983,420
COTTON BALE 1/ : 13,279.3 12,281.5 520 436 © 14,389.2 11,819.9. i1,154.9
DRY EDIBLE BEANS cwr lf: 1,262.9 1,470.5 1,290 1,302 is,288 19,369 19,141
ORY EDIBLE PEAS "WF: 167.0 197.0 613 1,750 1,023 3,334 3,448
POTATOES :

SUMMER cut : 15.2 102.2 191 187 21,982 21,211 21,013
SWEETPOTATOES " > 112.4 118.5 110 116 12,395 13,432 13,700
TOBACCO LB : 957.7 984.5 «1,997 2,117 «1,912,417 1,962,920 1,999,760
SUGARBEETS TON : 1,216.2 1,272.1 20.5 20.0 24,985 "25,712 ° 25,493
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR :

AND SEED TON : 759.4 © 752.6 «= 35.3 36.3 26,830 27,305 27,356
PEPPERMINT FOR OIL LB > 86.9 104.4 51 57 4,409 5,859 5,919
SPEARMINT FOR OIL " 237.1 47.3 63 67 2,329 3,014 3,185
Hops " > 30.5 31.0 1,796 1,782 54,777 $5,569 55,249
PASTURE AND RANGE PCT 2/ : 71 75
PEARS TON 786.6 668.7 698.7
GRAPES " 4,297.8 4,612.5 4,612.5
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) ” 157.0 3/142.0 138.0
PRUNES AND PLUMS : ~

(EXCL CALIF) " : 61.0 65.5 65.0
CRANBERRIES BBL : 2,102.2 4/2 ,282.0
PECANS LB : 236 ,600 ~ 221,300
FILBERTS TON : i1.8 il.8
WALNUTS " : 192.5 170.0 160.0

, TTTOW AS OF FIR MONTH, THE 1967-76 AVE
75 PERCENT. 3/ JULY T, 1978. 4/ RELEASED AUGUST 29,1978.
UNITED STATES CROP, SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC “UNIT:
{AREA HARVESTED: YIELD PER ACRE = PRODUCTION
CROP AND UNIT : : INDICATED: TINDICATED = + INDICATED
21977 toa: 1977 age ays 1977 “1978 1
: T,000 ACRE 1,000
RYE BU > 694 1,070 24.5 26.7 16,998 28,567
ALL HAY TON + 60,493 61,254 2.17 2.25 131,057 138,018

ALFALFA " 2 27,085 27,559 2.97 3.07 80,430 84,485

ALL OTHER ° 2 33,408 33,695 1.2 1.59 50,627 53,533
POTATOES 3

WINTER CHT 213.4 12.6 199 220 2,660

SPRING " : 914 90.7 250 199 223870
APPLES, COM*L LB : 6,655,600 ‘
PEACHES " : 2,991,000 2,608,600
SWEET CHERRIES TON : 147.8 137.3
TART CHERRIES LB : 210,900 174,200
APRICOTS TON : 147.4 ris.2
NECTARINES (CALIF) ‘ : . 150.0 145.0
PLUMS (CALIF) " : 157.0 130.0
ALMONDS (CALIF) " 249.0 170.0

1/7 ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978

EARLIER FORECAST.

A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


OkY EDIBLE JEANS Vv
CROP AND STATE AREA MARVESTEO : YIELU t PRODUCTION
T 7 THD-E T 1 IND f T 7 TNS
v7 t _ 1977 t__ 4978 1 4976 t 1977 | 3978 t 3976 3 _1977 8 978
19006 ACRES POUNDS 13000 cwT

LARGE LIMA BEANS

1
t
T
CAL : 3540 3160 29.0 1449010690 19897 522 $23 350
BABY LIMA BEANS :
cat 1 21.0 22.0 2560 14800 24090 4,886 378 460 470
BEANS OTHER THAN Limas 1
CALIF $1230 113.0 15660 19565 1971914625 14900 19943 20535
ORY EOIBLE BEANS. '
CALIF b 17960 166-0 21060 16564 1976314693 24800 2926 39555
coLo + 185.0 15660 170.0 900 880 14665 19265 19496
1oAHO 1 15940 132.0 153<0 16670 15760 24655 20165 29693
KaNS ert 125 12.5 15.5 1,200 1+200 150 162 186
MICH 2 $45.0 48040 545.0 14000 19100 59450 54520 51995
MINN art 4200 3000 4060 867 10450 364 396 580
MONT art 940 6.5 740 e700 29600 10600 183 Los iz
NEBR 1 12060 19060 11060 1965015550 15980 19550 16760
ny ‘ 3700 3260 4340 12070 12100 352 486
N_OAK b 139.0 105.0 113.0 a00 © 14050 aie 19103 16263
utan art 13.0 1.0 Bee 390 200 51 2 25
WASH 1 26.0 19.0 27.0 16750 19750 455 333 500
Wyo ' 2540 23.0 29.0 12800 19650 450 380 510
OTHER ark 18 5.9 16346 847 105 50
us 11969963 1926269 1447065 1918614290 1030217478616 e2BA DVI
17 EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED.
2/ ESTIMATES FOK CURRENT YEAK CARRIED FORWARD FROM EAKLIER FORECAST.
3/ ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ESTIMATES UTSCUNTINUED AFTER 1977 CHOP.
ORY EDIGLE PEAS vw
' AREA HARVESTED + yreup 1 PRODUCTION
STATE 5 + 7 IND ¥ t + ind gt ? 7 TNO
1974 4 1977} 1978 1 1976 1 1977 + J978 3 9761 _jo77 :_ 1978
1 19000 ACRES POUNDS 19008 cut
'
IDAHO § 4860 6760 76.0 19720 840 14750 826 563 15330
WASH 4 1760 100.0 121.0 14720 460 19750 16326 460 2eiie
us 112540 167.0 197.0 14720 61219750 24150 14023 34468

1/ EXCLUDES @OTH WRINKLED SEED PEAS AND
PEAS,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978

AUSTRIAN WINTER

CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


CROP_REPORT SUMMARY

The "All Crops" production index (1967=100) at 128 is 1 point below the record
set last year, according to the Crop Reporting Board. Feed grains, oil crops and hay
and forage are at record high levels. Cotton is down from a year earlier.

INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1968-78 (1967=100)

- PRODUCTION

7 Y : : : ry

YEAR ALL ; FEED ? : FooD SUGAR q :

Vy i grains rane = GRAINS crops ¢ COTTON : TOBACCO :01L CROPS

1968 103 95 99 106 113 148 87 114
1969 104 99 100 98 5 137 91 116
1970 J00 89 100 91 14 139 97 v7
1971 V2 116 105 107 16 145 86 121
1972 13 112 104 102 127 187 88 131
1973 119 115 109 114 W2 175 88 155
1974 110 93 104 120 104 158 101 127
1975 121 14 108 142 130 112 110 153
1976 121 120 102 141 128 142 108 132
1977 129 124 108 131 W7 195 98 171
1978 128 129 113 124 118 150 102 175

V/ INCLUDES HAY SEEDS, PASTURE SEEDS AND COVER-CROP SEEDS, AND SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP
PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN SEPARATE GROUPS OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with related
information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were prepared and
adopted by the Crop Reporting Board which consists of commodity statisticians from
Washington headquarters and the State Statistical Offices.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:

B. M. Graham, Chairman,
M. L. Koehn, Secretary,
F. E. Rolf, S. L. Guy,
APPROVED: R. T. Bass, D. J. Buckner,
H. L. Castle, H. J. DeLong,
W. N. Dowdy, J. R. Gibson,
4 D. E. Hamilton, D. E. Hulcher,
wk S. A. Kellogg, C.J. Koines,
’ S. R. Koyle, M. D. Rogers,
R. L. Schulte, L. E. Snipes,
C. D. Spiltlmann, G. &. Watdhaus,
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE W. J. Walker, W. W. Wilken,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


PECANS

' PRODUCTION
CROP AND STATE : TOTAL i TOTAL FT IND
i 1976 a 1977 2 1978
a 19000 POUNDS
PECANS IMPROVED wt
ALA 1 41000 25600 124800
ARK : 700 900 14000
FLA : 19000 29300 29200
GA ’ 434000 68000 851000
La ’ 700 39500 41000
MISS : 19000 61500 69500
N MEX : 119500 154000 159000
nC ' 15900 19100 1,900
OKLA t 800 14500 1,000
sc ’ 19700 1,500 2000
TEX ' 119000 124000 11000
us ’ 779300 1374900 1425400
PECANS NATIVE & SEEOLING = t
ALA : 1,000 69400 39200
ARK : 300 29100 29500
FLA : 19500 3800 34600
GA x 99000 207000 254000
LA ' 19300 129000
MISS : 500 3500
nc ’ 900 19100
OKLA + 19500 9000
sc 3 800 2000
TEX : 94000 174000
us : 254800 98700 784900
ALL PECANS : '
ALA. t 51000 324000 164000
ARK 3 19000 39000 39500
FLA : 29500 69100 5+800
GA : 521000 88000 1104000
La ’ 2000 314000 169000
MISS : 14500 114000 104000
N MEX : 115500 154000 15,000
ne t 29800 29000 39000
OKLA + 2300 109000
sc ' 29500 41000
TEX 1 20000 28-000
us i 1034100 2364600 2215300
1/ BUDDED,GRAFTEDsOR TOPWORKED VARIETIES.
PAPAYAS - HAWAII
ARER z
MONTH Po: e 7 3
Soy se tre; 1977 19781978
‘ACRES T7000 POUNDS
JUL : 3,070 3,155 2,255 2,105 6,652 5,750
AUG : 33050 3,115 2,180 2,160 6,322 5,000
SEP 35065 25265 5,502 4,300
oct 3,105 2,260 6,461 5,300
Nov : 3,095 2,360 6,690 5,900
DEC : 33140 2,395 52625 5000
CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION JAN-AUG 270578
CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 8-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA



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CROP REPORTING BOARD,

B-12

1978

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER


The Southwest area crop is expected to total 677 million pounds, 1 percent less than last
year. Harvested acreage is virtually unchanged from last year. Indicated yield for the area at
1573 pounds is 28 pounds below last year's average. In Oklahoma, the crop was rated in fair to
poor condition due to drought stress during August. About three-fourths of the acreage was peg~
ging. In Texas, harvest was about 16 percent complete by September 3, slightly behind the normal
pace. Dryland acreage was in need of additional rainfall while most irrigated stands were in
good condition.

COTTON: Al} cotton production is forecast at 11.2 million bales, 22 percent below 1977 and 6

percent below the August 1 forecast. Expected production consists of 11.1 million bales
of Upland cotton, down 22 percent from last year, and 79.4 thousand bales of American-Pima cotton,
down 29 percent. Cottonseed production for 1978 based on a three year average lint-seed ratio is
forecast at 4,33 million tons (3,92 million metric tons), 22 percent below 1977.

Growers expect to harvest 12.3 million acres of all cotton this year, 8 percent below 1977
and unchanged from the August 1 estimate. Average lint yield per harvested acre is forecast at
436 pounds, 84 pounds below 1977

Texas and Oklahoma Upland cotton production is forecast at 3.92 million bales for 1978, a
decrease of 34 percent from last year and 4 percent below the August 1 forecast. Harvest is near-
ing completion in southern Texas and gaining momentum in north Texas. Rains fell in portions of
west Texas and Oklahoma, benefiting some areas. Some dryland acreage, however, remains in stress
from drought.

In the Delta States - Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Missouri - the cotton
crop is expected to produce 2.88 million bales, 25 percent below 1977 and 4 percent below last
month's forecast. Balls are beginning to open throughout the Delta area. A few bales have been
ginned. End of August rains brought needed moisture but tended to slow crop maturity.

Production in the Southeastern States - Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina and North Carolina
- is expected to total 535 thousand bales, up 3 percent from 1977 and 1 percent above last month’s
forecast. The crop progressed satisfactorily with generally favorable conditions. Plants have
fruited heavily and bolls are opening. Insects have been kept under control. Moisture supplies
are adequate.

The California, Arizona, and New Mexico Upland crop is forecast at 3.74 million bales, 7 per-
cent below last year and 9 percent below the August 1 forecast. In the San Joaquin Valley the
crop has suffered from heavy insect infestations and yield prospects have deteriorated signifi-
cantly. In southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico, the crop continues to make good pro-
gress. Some harvesting has begun.

The Bureau of the Census reports 672,146 running bales ginned to September 1 compared with
693,627 bales ginned to the same date in 1977 and 373,104 bales in 1976.

ORY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry edible beans is forecast at 19.1 million cwt. (868 thousand

metric tons), 18 percent above the 1977 crop and 8 percent greater than 1976
Acreage for harvest at 1.47 million acres (595 thousand hectares) is 16 percent above a year .
earlier, Average yield is estimated at 1302 Pounds per acre compared with 1290 pounds last year.

The California dry bean crop is in various growing and dryin stages. Cuttin
of early planted fields, especially lima beans and black eyes, is active. Some growers sreronin
experiencing problems with lygus bugs, mites and worms. Harvesting of Michigan dry beans started
the last week of August. Harvest conditions were favorable and harvest should be in full swing
by the second week in September. Hot weather in Idaho during August caused the dry bean crop to
deteriorate. Pods were not filling as well as usual. Cutworm damage was not as bad as earlier
indicated. Limited cutting of dry beans in Nebraska began in early September. White mold was

widespread but not expected to be as serious as in other years. Hail i h
prospects in some areas of Nebraska. * B11 and blight have also reduced

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA


HOPS: Production of hops in the United States is now forecast at 55.2 million pounds (25.1

thousand metric tons), off 1 percent from last month's forecast but 1} percent greater than
the 1977 crop. Acreage for harvest at 31.0 thousand acres (12.6 thousand hectares) is unchanged
from last month but yield prospects in California and Oregon declined during August.

Washington's harvest was underway in late August but progress was hampered by rain and wind.
Oregon picking operations were also plagued by muddy yards. In Idaho, harvest was well underway
with smal] sizes caused by severe heat during August. Picking in California is also proceeding.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: September 1 pasture and range feed conditions averaged 75 percent for
the 48 contiguous States. This is 4 points above 1977 and the same as
the 1967-76 average for this date.

Good to excellent pasture conditions were reported in the Far West and northern half of the
Nation, while very poor to fair conditions were reported in the southern half from New Mexico to
the Atlantic Coasts Drought conditions still plague much of Texas and small drought areas
were reported in Louisiana, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Colorado, Tennessee, I]linois
and Michigan.

PEARS: The final forecast of the U.S. pear crop places production at 699 thousand tons (634 thou-
sand metric tons). This is a 4 percent improvement from prospects a month ago but still
far short of the last two seasons

The Bartlett pear crop in Washington, Oregon and California is forecast at 452 thousand tons,
up 7 percent from August 1 but off 17 percent from the 1977 total. Harvest in California was
virtually complete by the end of August with good quality and excellent sizes. In Washington,
picking was completed by Labor Day and Oregon's only remaining harvest was in the Hood River
upper valley. The Oregon and Washington crop showed good fruit size and quality.

Output of pears other than Bartlett is forecast at 203 thousand tons, unchanged from August 1
but 4 percent above the 1977 crop. Prospects during August declined in Oregon but were offset by
an improvement in Washington's crop. In southern Oregon, picking of good quality fruit has begun
while in the Hood River area harvest was expected to get underway in early September. Washington
harvest was underway in late August in early districts and should be well along in all producing
areas in early September. California's crop is developing well with good sizes expected.

In Michigan, prospects for a bumper crop are unchanged from last month. Harvest is about 20
percent complete and was delayed by cool spring weather which slowed crop development. Sizes and
quality are very good.

GRAPES: The Nation's 1978 grape crop is expected to total a record high 4.61 million tons (4.18
million metric tons), unchanged from last month's forecast and 7 percent above last year.

Prospects in California continue to point to a record-setting 4.10 million ton crop. Har-
vest of Tokay table grapes has begun with initial shipments to juices ahead of normal. Vines are
in good condition and fruit quality is very good. Harvest of wine varieties is also underway and
crush is double last year's pace. Grape quality is very good and sugar content is above normal.
Maturity of raisin grapes was ahead of last year and three-fourths of the crop was laid as untime-
ly Labor Day rains hit major producing areas. Crop loss is inevitable but the actual amount will
require extensive additional assessment.

Harvest of New York Concords is underway with ideal weather conditions, Michigan's bumper
crop is sizing well and harvest is expected to begin in late September, behind normal. In Penn-
sylvania, grape sizes are below normal due to lack of moisture but fruit set is very good. Sugar
content is good and diseases or mildew are not problems this year. Crop development is two weeks
later than normal and harvest will not begin until the end of September. The Washington crop was
slowed by hot weather in early August and cloudy weather in the second half delayed sugar build-
up. Harvest is expected to get underway after mid-September.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1978 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, ESCS, USDA