Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Production

1,000 Acres --- Tons --- -
AZ : 150 160 7.40 7.80 1,095 1,110 1,248
AR L/ : 30 25 3.00 3.00 105 90 75
CA : 920 950 6.90 6.90 6,432 6,348 6,555
co : 850 860 3.80 3.50 2.736 3,230 3,010
cT l/s: 20 19 2.40 3.00 58 48 57
oe l/: 5 4 3.80 4.50 yal 19 18
1D : 1,050 1,020 4.00 3.90 3,367 4,200 3.978
IL : 790 700 3.80 3.70 2,590 3,002 2,590
IN. : 330 350 4.00 3.80 1,221 1,320 1,330
IA : 1.550 1,250 2.55 3.50 §,735 3,953 4.375
KS : 850 850 3.80 3.70 3,570 3,230 3.145
KY : 280 300 3.70 3.90 1,050 1,036 1,170
ME 1/ : 19 19 - 2.80 2.90 46 53 55
MD 1/ : 65 60 3.10 4.00 273 202 240
MA L/ : 31 33 2.30 2.30 78 71 76
MI : 1,200 1,200 4,20 3.90 4,140 5,040 4,680
MN : 1,600 1,600 3.00 3.70 5,250 4,800 5,920
MO : 460 370 2.80 2.70 1,450 1,288 999
MT >: 1,500 1,550 2.50 2.30 3,360 3,750 3,565
NE : 1,400 1,500 3.40 3.50 5,550 4,760 5,250
NY : 235 240 4.40 4.30 874 1,034 1,032
NH U/ : 15 16 2.30 2.30 34 35 37
NJ Qs: 30 30 2.30 3.70 113 69 111
NM : 255 265 5.10 5.20 1,275 1,301 1,378
NY : 700 680 2.45 2.90 1,880 1,715 1,972
NC l/ : 20 20 2.00 3.00 84 40 60
ND : 1,700 1,550 1.90 2.00 1,755 3,230 3.100
OH : 650 680 3.50 4.00 2,800 2,275 2,720
OK : 330 320 3.60 3.60 1,330 1,188 1,152
OR : 420 420 4.20 4.20 1,600 1,764 1,764
PA : 780 800 3.10 3.40 2,720 2,418 2,720
RI l/ : 2 2 2.00 2.50 5 4 5
SO : 2,300 2,500 2.60 2.10 4,620 5,980 5,250
TN l/ : 60 50 3.30 3.50 252 198 175
TX : 85 90 4.30 4.20 550 366 378
UT : $00 525 4.40 4.20 1,960 2,200 2,205
VWI: 90 95 2.35 2.20 219 212 209
VA l/ : 130 150 2.70 3.00 490 351 450
WA : 480 480 4.50 4.50 2,208 2,160 2.160
wiol/: 40 40 3.20 3.00 120 128 120
WI : 2.200 2,250 2.30 2.50 5,290 5,060 5.625
WY : 640 660 2.50 2.30 1,265 1,600 1.518
US : 24,762 24,683 3.27 3.34 79,571 80.878 82.477

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-20 NASS, USDA


The Nebraska crop was reported 88 percent good to excellent, up 3 points from a
month earlier, and 22 percent of the crop had been harvested, well ahead of last
year. Current ear counts, if realized, would be the fifth highest.

The Ohio corn crop is reported 74 percent good to excellent, up 3 points from
last month and 7 percent of the crop has been harvested. The October ear count,
if realized, would only be exceeded by the final 1992 ear count.

Sorghum for Grain: Grain sorghum production is forecast at 640 million bushels,

up 1 percent from September 1 and 13 percent more than 1993,
U.S. yields are forecast at 68.9 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month
and 9.0 bushels per acre better than last year. Area for grain is unchanged
from last month at 9.30 million acres, down 2 percent from 1993.

The Texas crop condition declined slightly during September: harvest is nearly
complete from the Blacklands south. Early Missouri harvesting points to better
yields than expected tast month. Maturity of the Nebraska crop is about

2 1/2 weeks ahead of average.

Rice: Production of all rice is forecast at 192 million cwt. 1 percent above

the September 1 forecast and 23 percent above 1993. If realized, this
forecast production would be the highest on record. Yields in California,
Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi are up from last month. The U.S. yield, at
a record high 5,926 pounds, is up 160 pounds from last month. California and
Louisiana revised their harvested acreage down by 35,000 and 20,000,
respectively, from last month. These acreage revisions were based on
administrative data. In California, harvest approached the mid-point on October
1. Harvest conditions were excellent and high quality grain was being obtained.
Harvest continues to progress ahead of last year in all States.

Soybeans: Growers plan to harvest 60.7 million acres, unchanged from the

September estimate. The October Objective Yield Survey reported a
record high pod count for objective yield States. The average plant maturity is
ahead of last year. The percent of soybeans dropping leaves was ahead of 1993
and ahead of the average by the beginning of October. Soybean harvest is ahead
of 1993 and the average. Soybeans are rated in mostly good condition.

In comparison with the 1990-94 time period, the 1994 number of pods per

18 square feet is the highest for Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Ohio.
In these States, the percent of soybeans dropping leaves was ahead of last year
and the average. Also, the percent of soybeans harvested was ahead of 1993 and
the average for all States except Minnesota. 1n Minnesota, the percent of
soybeans harvested was ahead of 1993 but lagged behind the average.

In Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, the 1994 number of pods per 18 square feet
is the second highest, compared with the 1990-94 period. All three States
showed a higher percent of soybeans dropping leaves than last year and the
average. The percent of soybeans harvested was ahead of 1993 and the average for
all States.

Soybean Revisions - 1993: The 1993 soybean production was revised to
1.87 billion bushels, up 60.1 million bushels from
the previous 1993 estimate. Planted acreage was revised to 60.1 million acres,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-5 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
wueny (SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

October 1, 1994

NOAANUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on axstninl fe .

Crap Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-1 NASS, USDA


Burley production is expected to total 617 million pounds. up 2 percent from the
September 1 forecast but 2 percent below 1993. Yield is expected. to average
2,298 pounds per acre, 35 pounds above the September 1 forecast and 190 pounds
above 1993. Burley cutting in Kentucky is nearing completing with about

20 percent of the burley cured and quality of the housed tobacco reported as
good to excellent.

Sugarbeets: The October 1 production forecast of 30.0 million tons is 1 percent

above the September 1 forecast and 14 percent above last year’s
output. Yields are expected to average 20.8 tons per acre, up 2.2 tons from
Jast year,

Harvest activity started behind schedule due to wet field conditions in the
upper Great Plains and the Great Lakes States. Two thousand acres in
Minnesota's Red River Valley were lost from flooding-rain. North Dakota's
sugarbeet Crop was 19 percent harvested by the beginning of October. Hot, dry
weather in Colorado permitted sugarbeets to continue growing. while cold weather
was needed to increase the sugar content of the beets.

Sugarcane: Sugarcane production for October 1 is forecast at 31.1 million tons,

virtually unchanged from the September 1 forecast and last year.
Area for harvest, at 941,700 acres, is down slightly from September 1 and down
1 percent from a year ago. The forecasted yield of 33.0 tons per acre is up
0.2 ton from a year earlier.

Growing conditions for September have been generally favorable in contrast to an
unusually wet August. Closing of some sugarcane plantations in Hawaii resulted
in Jower harvested acres. Heavy rain in Florida’s sugarcane growing region left
some fields with standing water but did not slow preparations for the harvest.

Grapes: The October production forecast for al1 grapes in the U.S. is

6.13 million tons, up slightly from August's forecast but up 2 percent
from 1993. Michigan, New York, and Washington estimates increased over the
previous production forecasts, while California and Pennsylvania forecasts were
unchanged.

The California all grape forecast is 5.53.million tons, up 3 percent from a year
ago. Scattered showers throughout central California in late September had
minimal effect on the grape crop since the majority of a)1 grapes were already
harvested. The wine type grape forecast is 2.40 million tons, up 2 percent from
last year. Harvest is in full swing with good quality reported.

The raisin type grape forecast is 2.50 million tons, up 4 percent from last
year. Harvesting of Thompson Seediess grapes for fresh use. wine crush, and
raisin lay is nearing completion. The amount of Thompson Seedless grapes
crushed for wine is down significantly from last year.

The table type grape production is forecast at 630,000 tons. unchanged from last
year. Harvest is active in the San Joaquin Valley and good quality is reported.
Flame Seedless and Ruby Seedless are among the varieties currently being
harvested.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-10 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Area Planted by State and United States, 1993 1/

State Area Planted State Area Planted
1,000 Acres nt : 1,000 Acres
AL : 310 7: M0 : 4,250
AR : 3,600 i NE : 2,600
DE : 220 ri Nd : 150
FL : 55 rr ONC : 1,350
GA : 600 rt ND : 600
IL : 9.300 :: OH : 4,100
IN : 4,900 7: OK : 280
IA : 8.600 rr PA : 300
KS : 2,000 2: SC : 600
KY : 1.170 i: SD : 1.850
tA : 1,350 i: TN i 1,100
MD : 580 2: 1X : 230
MI : 1,450 i: VA : 620
MN : 5,400 t: OWI : 610
MS : 2,000 nt :
: us 60,075

i/ Revised.

U.S. Soybean Production
1986 - 1994

Billlon Bushels

3.00

2.50 orecnneceessecansegcenennccaninseceennnsaeseraetserseee eens tng accent BE :

wn
~
°
=
©
a
>
©
a
a
iJ
LS)
=
©
o
=
o
©
Nn
int
2
NI

2.00 | A et 92 reve, iZ 87.. Ly}

AGA x=Aigagag
la
“ZAA —NAAIAIAIA |

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-14 NASS, USDA


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race. color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability. political beliefs, and marital or familia) status. Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille. large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the

USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C..
20250. or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.

raf Want to subscribe? raf Time to renew?

Subscribe to Crop Production today! If you already subscribe to this timely periodical, note that expiration
information about your subscription appears on the top line of your mailing labe!. Expiration information will
appear in one of two formats: 1-PCP-2 (this means you have TWO issues remaining in your subscription) or
APRS95 (expiration date is April 1995). Disregard this notice if no renewal information appears.

Need It fast? Subscribe to Crop Production via CALL-ERS/NASS, an electronic Bulletin Board Service that
supports 1200/2400/9600 baud communications. Reports may be accessed by 9 a.m. ET the day following
release. An electronic subscription costs the same as paper!

Call toll free, 1-800-999-6779, and tell us whether you want to subscribe or renew, or return this form to:
ERS-NASS, 341 Victory Drive, Herndon, VA 22070.

Crop Production (PCP)
1 Year 2 Years 3 Years

Q Yes! | want to start my subscription. Domestic $49.00 Q $9600 O $144.00
Q Yes! | want to renew my subscription. Foreign Q $61.25 O $120.00 O $180.00
Check one: O Paper

Q Electronic (1-year subscriptions only)

BOTH (rate is DOUBLE the listed price)
New subscribers: Renewals:
Name:
Address:

ATTACH MAILING LABEL HERE

City, State, Zip:
Daytime phone: ( )
Payment method:

Use urease Orders, checks drawn on U.S. banks, cashier's checks, or international mon
Q_ Enclosed is $, rders. Make payable to ERS-NASS. °

Credit card orders: 0 ‘Mastetad Q Visa Total charges $.

a

For fastest service, call our toll-free order desk 1-800-999-6779,
in the U.S. and Canada; other areas please call 703-834-0125,
or FAX this page to 703-834-0110.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-20 NASS, USDA


Index
Page
Table Narrative

APPIES 2. cece teen nee teens A-33 B-13
Beans, Dry Edible 2.0... 2... e cece cece eee A-22 - B- 8
Citrus Fruit co. ee ec cee ee eee eee A-30 B-1il
Corn for Grain ... ieee eee ete A- g B- 4
COLEON 2 eee ence ne teen eee A-17 B- 7
Cottonseed A-18

Crop Moisture Maps B- 1
Grapes 6. eee eee eee eee e eee nee A-32 B-10
Hay, AMD oo. ec eee eee eee ee A-19 B- 8
Hay, Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay ......... A-20 B- 8
Hay, Other 20... cece teenies A-21 B- 8
HaZ@IMNUtS. cence e eet eee ee A-35 B-14
Lentils 2.20... . eee eee eee eee A-23 B- 9
PapayaS 2... eee cee eet e eee A-35 B-14
Pasture and Range Feed Condition .................. A-25 B- 9
Peanuts for Nuts 2.0.0.2... cece eee eee A-16 B- 6
Peas, AuStrian Winter ............ 0. cece cece eee A-24 B- 9
Peas, Dry Edible .... A-23 B- 9
PECANS ... ieee eee eee A-34 B-13
POLATOES 20 ceeeeeeeeeetees A-24 B- 9
Reliability Statement ........ 0... cece eee B-16
9 A-12 B- 5
Sorghum for Grain 2.0... . 2 cece ee tee eee A-11 B- 5
Soybeans for Beans ...... 0... eee eee eee A-13 B- 5
Sugarbeets 2.0... 2. cece eee ee eee A-29 B-10
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed ............-.0...0008 A-29 B-10
Sunflower 2.0.0... ee cece centre eet e ene A-15 B- 6
Tobacco by Class and Type ............. Deven ee eeee A-26 B- 9
Tobacco by States 2... cee cece eee eee A-28

US Summary A- 3

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-18 NASS, USDA


Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between September 22 and October 3 to gather information on
expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, soybeans,
and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for
at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were
re-visited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots
depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of
plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to
forecast the number of ears, pods. or bolls and their weight. The counts are
used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological
yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net
yield. The plots are re-visited each month until crop maturity when the fruit
is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample
field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 23,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National. regional, and State level objective yield and
grower reported survey estimates were reviewed for
errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey
data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared
to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits
their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics
Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the
published October 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead

a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a balance
sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports, processing,
feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships
warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast
is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed
since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1

Production forecasts. the “Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1974-1993 20-year period is computed then the square root of the average
becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the “Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 4.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-16 NASS, USDA


Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yieid, Production,
by State and United States, 1992-94
: Area Planted Area Harvested
State See

10 : 1,500 1,100 88 150 44
OR : 1.000 1.000 il 5 4
US : 1,476 1,091 99 155 48

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested. Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1993-94 2/

: Area Planted Area Harvested
State per ee ee ee nee ee een ene nen ene nen neee

l/ 1994 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-24 NASS, USDA


up 720,000 acres from the previous estimate. Harvested acreage increased to
57.3 million acres. up 840,000 acres from the previous estimate. The resulting
yield is 32.6 bushels, an increase of 0.6 bushel over the previous estimate.

Revisions were made based upon end of marketing year stocks estimates,
disappearance data for exports and crushings, and availability of additional
data in some States. This information was previously released in the September
"Grain Stocks” report.

Sunflower: Production is forecast at 4.55 billion pounds in 1994, 75 percent

above both the 1993 and 1992 crops. Harvested area, at 3.29 million
acres, iS up 31 percent from 1993. Yield is up 347 pounds, at the U.S. level,
from last year.

In North Dakota, development progressed well ahead of last year and near average
during most of the growing season. Adequate moisture and ample growing degree
days maintained good progress. As of October 3. the crop was in mostly good
condition and harvest continued ahead of the average in most States.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.11 billion pounds, virtually unchanged
from the September 1 forecast but up 21 percent from last year.

Favorable September weather allowed harvest to progress well across all regions.

The acreage for harvest is 1.62 million acres, 4 percent below last year.

Yields are expected to average 2.543 pounds per harvested acre, up 35 pounds

from last month and 535 pounds above 1993.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama. Florida. Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.46 billion pounds. This level is essentially
unchanged from last month but 18 percent above the 1993 crop. Yield for the
4-State area is expected to average 2,561 pounds per acre, 553 pounds above last
year. Favorable September weather across Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina
allowed harvest to progress well but Florida producers were delayed until late
in the month. As of early October, peanut harvest was two-thirds complete in
Alabama, slightly ahead of normal. The condition of the Georgia crop was rated
as 14 percent fair, 72 percent good, and 12 percent excellent. Digging was
three-fourths complete and threshing approached 60 percent completion by the end
of September, slightly ahead of normal. In South Carolina, harvest was

40 percent complete compared to one-third normally. Crop quality continues to
be rated as excellent.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 702 million pounds, down
fractionally from last month but up 47 percent from last year’s drought-reduced
crop. Yield per harvested acre, at 2,900 pounds. is 892 pounds per acre above
Jast year’s average. Crop conditions declined in Virginia to reduce
expectations slightly, while early harvesting in North Carolina improved
expectations Somewhat. Harvest is slightly behind normal in Virginia with

15 percent combined compared with 29 percent normally. In North Carolina,
combining stood at 14 percent complete compared with 10 percent normally for the
date.

The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected
to total 952 million pounds, unchanged from last month but 13 percent above

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-6 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested,
United States. 1993-94 (Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

CO a ) ee
1993 1994 1/ 1993 1994 VF
1,000 Acres

Flaxseed : 206 189 191 182
Potatoes :

Winter 2/ : 14.3 12.9 13.6 12.3

Spring : 86.9 91.6 83.8 90.4

Summer : 94.1 93.9 89.2 89.3

Fall : 1,189.9 1,207.8 1,130.4 1,188.3

Total 2/ : 1,385.2 1,406.2 1,317.0 1,380.3

Sweetpotatoes : 83.1 84.5 80.2 81.2

Hops : 43.1 42.4

1/ 1994 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1993 revised.

Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States, 1993-94 (Domestic Units)

1994 l/

Crop and Unit

Potatoes :

Winter 2/ Cwt : 188 193 2,552 2,372

Spring : 235 250 19,654 22,559

Summer . : 230 237 20,552 21,197

Fall . : 341 385.935

Total 2/ “ : 326 428.693
Hops Lb: 1,767 1,707 76,143.7 72,358.2
Peaches “ : 2.656.600 2,460,800
Pears Ton : 949.2 980.0
Sweet Cherries . : 168.6 168.2
Tart Cherries Lb: 323,400 256,800
Apricots Ton : 96.4 137.8
Olives (CA) " : 122.0 105.0
Dried Prunes (CA) . : 121.0 175.0
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) "oy 28.2 40.0
Almonds (CA) lb: 490,000 640,000
Walnuts (CA) Ton : 260.0 220.0

1/ 1994 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1993 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-5 NASS, USDA


Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States.
1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Tons (In-Shell Basis)

OR : 27,500 40,800 18,900
WA L/ : 200 200 100
US : 27,700 41,000 19,000

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1993-94

-- 1,000 Pounds --

Aug : 3,410 3,255 2,445 2,155 5,045 4,310

Sep ot 3,450 3,255 2.505 2,160 5,230 4,095

Oct : 3,435 2,455 4,875

Nov : 3.430 2,530 5.720

Dec L 3,365 2,365 5,625

Jan : 3,345 2,310 5,465
Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-Sep 41,980 42,295

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-35 NASS, USDA


All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States. 1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production

AL : 720 750 2. 2. 1,440 1,950
AZ 1/ : 35 40 3. 4. 126 192
AR : 1,150 1,100 2. 2. 2,300 2,750
CA : 460 560 2. 2. 1,242 1,624
co : 550 490 1. 1. 1,045 784
cT is: 64 61 1. 2. 115 128
DE l/ : 12 ll 2. 2. 26 31
FL 220 240 3. 3. 660 936
GA 600 650 1. 3. 1,140 2,145
ID 280 230 2. 2. 644 460
IL 460 400 2. 2. 1,104 960
IN 370 350 2. 2. 962 840
1A 500 500 1. 2. 850 1,100
KS 1,600 1,650 2. 1. 3,200 2,805
ky 1,920 1,950 2. 2. 4,416 4,485
LA 2/ 250 280 2. 2. 600 728
ME 1/ 216 219 1. 1. 346 416
MD 1/ 145 140 2. 2. 348 378
MA 72 75 1. 1. 115 128
MI 300 350 2. 2. 750 770
MN 650 700 7 2. 1,170 1.400
MS 720 750 2. 2. 1,728 1,650
MO 3,100 3,000 1. 1. 6,045 5.400
MT 870 750 1. 1. 1,479 1,200
NE : 2,250 2.000 1. 1. 2,813 2,000
NV D/ : 270 250 1. 1. 351 375
NH L/ : 75 65 1. 1. 105 91
NJ D/ : 90 90 1. 2. 162 216
NM 1/ : 70 70 1, 2. 133 168
NY > 1,050 1,120 1.80 2.00 1,710 1,890 2,240
NC 450 490 1.50 2.30 1,150 675 1,127
NOD 1,250 1,350 1.45 1,30 1,760 1,813 1,755
OH 700 720 2.10 2.70 1,750 1.470 1,944
OK 1,800 1,880 1.70 1.80 3,420 3,060 3.384
OR 620 680 2.10 2.00 840 1,302 1,360
PA 2 1.100 1,120 2.10 2.10 2,180 2,310 2,352
RI l/ : 7 : 6 1.60 1.65 13 11 10
SC : 230 280 1.80 2.80 450 414 784
SD 1,900 1,800 1.30 1.20 2,400 2,470 2,160
TMN 1,640 1,650 2.00 2.20 3,213 3,280 3,630
TX 3.400 3,600 2.10 2.40 9,250 7,140 8.640
UT 1/ 150 160 2.20 1.90 280 330 300
VI V/ 260 245 1.70 1.90 616 442 466
VA 1,070 1,060 2.00 2.00 2,415 2,140 2,120
WA 270 240 2.50 2.30 754 675 552
wy 490 510 1.90 1,90 950 931 969
WI 600 450 2.60 2.09 800 1,200 900
WY 630 550 1.60 1.10 708 1,008 605
US 35,636 35,632 1.91 2.00 69,292 67.976 71,408

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Includes alfalfa hay.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-21 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production by Class, Type,

State, and United States.

1993 and Forecasted October 1,

1994 (continued)

Area Harvested

Class and Type

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air-Cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt
KY
TN
us
Type 36. Green River
Belt
KY

Belt
VA
Total 35-37

Type 37, VA Sun-Cured :

Class 4, Cigar Filler :

Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder :

Class 5A, CT Valley
Binder
Type 51, CT Valley
Broadleaf
CT
MA
us
Class 58, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI
WI
Type 55, Northern WI
WI
Total 54-55
Tota) 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:

Type 61, CT Valley
Shade-Grown
CT
MA
US
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61

All Tobacco

Crop Production
October 1994

1993

---- Acres ----
2.700 2,500
640 600
3.340 3.100
1.450 1,300
100 80
4,890 4,480
6.500 6,000
650 600
170 180
820 780
2.900 2,200
1,900 1,100
4.800 3.300
5.620 4.080
850 910
230 280
1,080 1,190
13,200 11,270
: 747,540 676,090
A-27

2,370
2,125
2,323

2,320

1,040
2,296

2,100

1,875
2,060
1,913

1,620
1,340

1,509
1,568

2,500
2,150
2,432

2,500

1,400
2,433

2,100

1,860
1.870
1,863

2,100
1,600

1,933
1,920

1.490
1,480
1,487

1,970

Production

6,399
1,360
7,759

3,364

104
11,227

13,650

1,219
350
1,569

4,698
2,546

7,244
8,813

1,194
344
1,538

24,001

6,250
1,290
7,540

3,250

112
10,902

12,600

1,116
337
1,453

4,620
1,760

6,380
7,833

1,356
414
1,770

22,203

2,312 1,613,591 1,563.065

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Lentils: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1992-94

Area Planted Area Harvested

State tre eee eee enn eee ee ee ee eee ee eee eee ee ee eee eee eee ee eee ee
1993 1994 1993 1994
1,000 Acres
1D : 57.0 86.0 56.0 85.0
WA : 88.0 94.0 87.0 93.0
US : 145.0 180.0 143.0 178.0
_ Yield Production

---- Pounds -- - -------- 1,000 Cwt ---
10 : 1,500 1,100 588 840 935,
WA : 1,340 990 978 1,166 921
US : 1.403 1,043 1,566 2,006 1,856

Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1992-94 1/
ee Area Planted Area Harvested

State aaa ala laa aaah laa etaelaaieioteta
1D
WA
US

---- Pounds -------- =+----- 1,000 Cwt ---------
1D : 2,000 1,800 935 940 846
WA : 2,400 1.740 1,600 2,352 1,409
US : 2,270 1.762 2,535 3,292 2,255

1/ Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas.

Crop Production Agricultura) Statistics Board
October 1994 A-23 NASS, USDA


Cora: Ears per Acre

The National Agricultura) Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
surveys in 10 States during 1994. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts
and measurements. Data in this table are actual counts from this survey and are
not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are intended to
Show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,
Selected States, 1990-1994 1/

State 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2/
It 21,900 21,800 23,000 22,600 22,650
IN 21,700 20.300 22.700 22,200 22,150
IA 22,500 21.700 24,000 22,500 24,050
MI 21,200 21,800 24,600 22,300 22,850
MN 24,100 24,100 27,000 24,900 26,950
MO 18,000 18,800 19,400 18,500 19,300
NE 21,500 21,900 22,100 21,100 21,200
OH 22,200 20,800 23,200 21,700 22.400
SD 17,300 18,000 20,700 18.000 21,300
WI 22,000 22,600 23,300 23.100 24.600

1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ October 1. counts.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 . A-36 NASS, USDA


Cottonseed: Production, United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Production
State :-------+- ++ ---- 2-2-2 ee renee ee ee eee ee eee ne eee eee eee eee
1992 1993 1994
1,000 Tons
US 6,230.1 6,347.2 7,502.5

U.S. All Cotton Production
1984 - 1994

0 Million Bales

20.00 fevcecccc eects tetas be eeee eee eteeeteeteetteteneete 178i

7
&®
iN)
=
a
a
a

LMM,

10.00 N NS IN N VI

0.00

°o

WM

©
>
@
o
)
@
o
N
@
©
@
o
©
°
©
4
©
N
©
o
©
>

Agricultural Statistics Board

Crop Production
NASS, USDA

October 1994 A-18


U.S. Corn Production
1984 - 1994

5 Billion Bushels

10.00 prcscesecse gg ggg ccesceseescesceeeesesereccenecenceesceceasceresceseeseyy b 5 Ssh eS i

8.00}. - “RS +bhINS -- FAB Prrrrrerrr ryt Seesee oe EST.

eo) NINN Ne
400 VI NIN} NAS |

N
2.001 NV N. N NNi N

0.00

84 86 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 98 94
Year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-10 NASS, USDA


Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted October 1. 1994 1/

Total Production 2/

State Dr trercrtrr rrr tre ccc tenner testes errr terse cee
: 1992 1993 1994
Million Pounds

AZ 3/ 90.0 61.0 61.0
AR 3/ 0 12.0 7.0
CA 3/ 840.0 880.0 920.0
CO 3/ 90.0 92.0 93.0
CT 3/ . 42.0 24.5 25.0
DE 3/ 21.0 28.0 22.0
GA 3/ 25.0 34.0 28.0
1D 3/ 75.0 195.0 170.0
IL 3/ 88.0 90.0 50.0
IN 3/ 70.0 80.0 50.0
IA 3/ 14.0 9.5 10.0
KS 3/ 6.0 7.0 5.5
KY 3/ 16.0 22.0 10.0
ME 3/ 83.0 55.0 62.0
MD 3/ 50.0 42.0 28.0
MA 3/ 85.0 59.0 59.0
MI 1,080.0 1,020.0 930.0
MN 3/ 29.0 23.0 24.0
MO 3/ 37.0 56.0 32.0
NH 3/7 54.0 36.5 35.0
NJ 3/ 55.0 75.0 74.0
NM 3/ 15.0 7.0 12.0
NY 1,170.0 870.0 1,050.0
NC 240.0 320.0 230.0
OH 3/ 115.0 135.0 90.0
OR 3/ 175.0 160.0 190.0
PA 500.0 530.0 420.0
RI 3/ 6.5 5.3 5.0
SC 3/ 68.0 60.0 60.0
TN 3/ 13.0 21.0 13.0
UT 3/ 60.0 53.0 47.0
VT 3/ 50.0 38.0 38.0
VA 370.0 370.0 300.0
WA 4,650.0 5,000.0 5,500.0
WV 225.0 190.0 150.0
WI 3/ 63.0 62.0 62.0
US 10,578.5 10,722.8 10,862.5

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.

2/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
United States 1992-104.2, 1993-111.9.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-33 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit:

1993-94 and Forecasted 1995 on October 1, 1994 1/

Utilized Production

Crop
and

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/

Temples
FL

Grapefruit
White Seedless”
FL
Colored Seediess
Fi

Other
FL
All
AZ
CA 4/
Desert
Other Areas
Total

Tangelos
L

F
K-Early Citrus
FL

255.760
2,500

25,700
27.700
1,750
2,150

3,500
5,700
9,200
55,150
1,875
68,375

950
2,100
2,800
5,850

4,400
20,400
24,800

3,050

Boxes

700
36,600
107,300
480
145,080

1,200
26.000
66,900

70
94,170

1,900
62,600
174,200
550
239,250

2,250

24,500
25,500
1,050
1,750
3,300
§,800

9,100
51,050

800
37,000
118,000
900
156,700

900
28,000
78,000

100

107,000

1,700
65,000

2,600

25,000
29,000
1,500
1,700
3,400

55,500
3,600

800
2,200
4,000
7,000

4.700
20,500
25,200

3,200

4,161

69
2,505
8,396

22

10,992

113

ran

093
177
74
69

112
191
303

2,344

75

2,791

e

26
1,372
4,829

21
6,248

45

975
3,010
3
4,033
71
2,347
7,839
24
10,281

102

1,042
1,084
45

59
111

Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States

Utilized Production
Ton Equivalent

1,063
1,233
64

57
114

2,360
144

Crop Production
October 1994

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1993 and Forecasted October 1, 1994
(Metric Units)

:Yield per Hectare: Production
Crop alll te
: : : Sep 1. Oct 1
1993: 1994 : 1993 : 1994 : 1994

Metric Tons

Corn for Grain

6.32 8.40 161,146,170 235,142,950 243,910,670
Sorghum for Grain 3.76 4.32 14,424,490 16,130,500 16,266.400
Rice : 6.18 6.64 7,081,030 8,631,320 8,722,630
Soybeans for Beans 1/ : 2.19 2.72 50,857,080 63,033,290  66,898.170
Peanuts for Nuts 2.25 2.85 1,538,770 1,867,440 1,864,750
Sunflower 1/ 1.16 1.55 1,177,850 2,065,650
All Cotton 0.68 0.77 3,515,140 4,142,110 4,202,650
Upland 0.67 0.77 3,432,270 4,062,210 4,123,180
Amer -Pima : 1.08 1.13 82,870 79,900 79,470
Cottonseed : 5,758,080 6,709,080 6,806,150
All Hay : 5,62 5.72 135,038,080 137,370,450 139,602.130
Alfalfa 7.32 7.49 73,371,290 74,040,790 74,821,880
All Other 4.28 4.49 61,666,790 63,329,660  64,780.250
Dry Edible Beans 1.53 1.76 990,740 1,269,200 1,293,060
Dry Edible Peas 1/ 2.54 1.97 149,320 102,290
Austrian Winter
Peas 1/ 1.65 1.22 7,030 2,180
Lentils 1/ 1.57 1.17 90,990 84,190
All Tobacco 1 2.42 2.59 731,910 699,250 708,990
Sugarbeets : 41.75 46.70 23,812,690 27,050.430 27,200,120
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed > 73.52 73.92 28,214,350 28,271,510 28,169,900
Apples, Comm’ 2/ : 4,863,780 4,909,000 4,927,150
Grapes : 5,465,020 5,535,280 5,557,050
Pecans . : 165,560 94,800 89,810
Hazelnuts 3/ : 37,190 17,240 17.240
Citrus Fruits 4/ : 1993-94 1994-95 1994-95
Oranges : 9,326,770 10,309,250
Lemons : 892.670 869,080

1/ 1993 revised.
2/ September estimate carried forward from August 1.
3/ September 1 forecast carried forward from mid-August forecast published in
in “Hazelnut Production" released August 24, 1994.
4/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
“ completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Qctober 1994 A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

1993 and Forecasted October 1, 1994 (Metric Units)

Area Planted and Harvested, United States,

Area Harvested 1/

Corn
Sorghum
Rice
Soybeans 2/
Peanuts
Sunflower 2/
All Cotton
Upland
Amer -Pima
All Hay
Alfalfa
All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Dry Edible Peas 2/
Austrian Winter
Peas 2/
Lentils 2/
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed

29.673, 080
4,246,010
1,181,690

24,311,750

701,530
1,123,420
5,438,340
5,361,450

76,890

748,640
60,300

5,260
58,680

581.820

Area Planted

Hectares
31,876,220 25,491,830
4,127,430 3,838,890
1,357.730 1,146,490
24,999,720 23,183,480
680.690 683,850
1.388.090 1,013,340
5,659,100 5,173,280
5,588,280 5,096,830
70,820 76,450
24,442,460
10,020,930
14,421,530
797,930 647,500
53,010 58,680
2,790 4,250
72,840 57,870
302,520
594,080 570.370
383,770

“29,039,340

3,763,210
1,313,220
24,565,490
654,180
1,331,830
5,433,530
5,363,280
70,250
24,408,870
9,988,960
14,419,910
736,450
51,800

1,780
72,030
273,610
582,430

381,100

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, je.. grain, beans, nuts, etc.

2/ 1993 revised.

Crop Summary:

Area Planted and Harvested

United States, 1993-94 (Metric Units)

Flaxseed
Potatoes
Winter 2/
Spring
Summer
Fall
Total 2/
Sweet potatoes
Hops

83.370

5,790
35,170
38,080

481.540
560,580
33,630

Hectares

76,490

5.220
37,070
38,000

488,780
569,080
34,200

77,300

5,500
33,910
36,100

457,460
532,980
32,460
17,440

73,650

4,980
36,580
36,140

480,890
558.590
32,860
17,160

l/ 1994 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast

2/ 1993 revised.

Crop Production
October 1994

A-6

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS. USDA


All Hay:

and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

Area Harvested

Productio

1993 1994
1,000 Acres

AL : 720 750
AZ : 185 200
AR : 1,180 1,125
CA 1,380 1,510
co 1,400 1,350
CT 84 80
OE 7 16
FL 220 240
GA 600 650
1D : 1.330 1,250
IL : 1,250 1,100
IN : 700 700
IA : 2,050 1,750
KS : 2,450 2,500
KY : 2,200 2,250
LA : 250 280
ME : 235 238
MD : 210 200
MA : 103 108
MI : 1,500 1,550
MN : 2,250 2,300
MS : 720 750
MO : 3,560 3.370
MT : 2,370 2.300
NE : 3,650 3,500
NV : 505 490
NH : 90 81
NJ : 120 120
NM : 325 335
NY : 1.750 1,800
NC : “470 510
NO : 2,950 2,900
QH : 1,350 1.400
ok > 2,130 2,200
OR : 1,040 1,100
PA : 1,880 1,920
RI : 9 8
Sc : 230 280
SD : 4,200 4,300
TN : 1,700 1,700
TX : 3.485 3,690
UT : 650 685
VT : 350 340
VA : 1,200 1,210
WA. : 750 720
wy : 530 550
WI : 2,800 2,700
wy : 1,270 1,210
us : 60,398 60,315

Crop Production
October 1994

--- Tons ---
2.00 2.60
6.68 7.20
2.03 2.51
5.50 5.42
3.05 2.81
1.94 2.31
2.65 3.27
3.00 3.90
1.90 3.30
3.64 3.55
3.28 3.23
3.26 3.10
2.34 3.13
2.62 2.38
2.48 2.51
2.40 2.60
1.70 1.98
2.62 3.09
1.81 1.89
3.86 3.52
2.65 3.18
2.40 2.20
2.06 1.90
2.21 2.07
2.07 2.07
2.74 2.87
1,56 1.58
1.93 2.73
4.41 4.61
2.06 2.34
1.52 2.33
Lv. 1.67
2.77 3,33
1.99 2.06
2.95 2.84
2.51 2.64
1.67 1.88
1.80 2.80
2.01 1.72
2.05 2.24
2.15 2.44
3.89 3.66
1.87 1.99
2.08 2.12
3.78 3.77
2.00 1.98
2.24 2.42
2,05 1.75
2.46 2.55
A-19

RADE Wwe

PORNO S

PMA ROR OH

491 1,440
224 1,236
796 2,390
755 7,590
961 4,275
194 163

$2 45
875 660
624 1,140
655 4,844
316 4,106
971 2,282
615 4,803
670 6,430
935 5,452
644 600
47 399
648 550
248 186
640 5,790
550 5,970
025 1,728
030 7.333
720 5.229
023 7,573
062 1,385
181 140
333 231
401 1,434
590 3,605
234 715
515 5,043
550 3,745
750 4,248
440 3,066
900 4,728

18 15
450 414
020 8,450
465 3,478
800 7,506
240 2,530
835 654
905 2,491
962 2,835
070 1,059
090 6,260
973 2,608

728
471
618
204
5.450
7.320
1,650
6,399
4,765
7,250
1,407
128
327
1,546
4,212
1,187
4,855
4,664
4,536
3,124
5.072
15
784
7,410
3,805
9,018
2,505
675
2.570
2,712
1,089
6.525
2,123

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production
State : :
1993 : 1994 : 1993 1993 1994
--- 1,000 Bushels ---
AL 250 260 55.0 90. 13,750 24,700
AZ 1/ 10 13 160.0 170.0 1,600 2,210
AR 1/ 90 90 91.0 120. 8,190 10,800
CA 170 180 165.0 170. 28,050 30,600
co > 825 900 120.0 145. 99,000 130,500
T 2/
DE 160 152 85.0 118. 13,600 16,720
FL L/ 100 80 65.0 75. 6.500 6,000
GA 560 540 70.0 104. 39,200 57,240
ID’ 45 30 125.0 135. 5,625 4,050
IL 10,000 11,550 130.0 138. 1,300,000 1,697,850
IN 5,400 6,150 132.0 132. 712,800 842,550
IA 11.000 12,400 80.0 145. 880.000 1,860,000
KS 1,800 2,000 120.0 140. 216,000 280,000
KY 1,220 1,220 104.0 116. 126,880 141,520
ia ¥ 210 280 95.0 110. 19,950 30,800
Wo 2 420 380 78.0 110. 32,760 39,900
MI 2,150 2,150 110.0 106. 236,500 240,800
MN 4,600 6.300 70.0 140. 322,000 882,000
MS 1/ 190 280 78.0 102. 14,820 28,560
MO 1,850 2,300 90.0 lili. 166,500 271,400
MT L/ 8 25 105.0 110. 840 2,750
NE 2) 7,550 8,000 104.0 131. 785,200 1,104,000
NH
NJ 1/ 80 83 96.0 110. 7,680 9,130
NM J/ 85 85 165.0 165. 14,025 14,025
NY 580 $40 105.0 110. 60,900 60,480
NC 850 850 65.0 390. 55,250 76,500
ND 365 500 45.0 86. 16,425 45,000
OH 3,280 3,600 110.0 129. 360,800 469.000
OK L/ 140 180 110.0 100. 15,400 18,000
OR L/ : 19 25 155.0 170. 2,945 4,250
PA 2 : 970 1,000 96.0 116. 93.120 116,000
Sc : 240 345 40.0 69. 9,600 25,875
SD : 2,550 3,300 63.0 89. 160,650 316.800
TN : 550 570 84.0 120. 46,200 68.400
TX : 1,850 1,950 115.0 117. 212,750 228,150
vt a : 22 24 130.0 130. 2,860 3,120
VA : 285 340 60.0 94. 17.100 31,960
WA 1/ : 80 95 190.0 180. 15,200 17,100
WV 1/ : 43 40 85.0 90. 3,655 3,600
WI 2,350 3,000 92.0 122. 216,200 384,000
WY 1/ 44 50 80.0 120. 3,520 6,000
US : 62,991 71,757 100.7 129. 6.344.045 9,602,340

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
_2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 , A-9 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed: Condition by State and United States,
1993-94 and Average 1L/

State : Average : 1993 1993 : 1994
: 1983-92: :

AL 70 85 90 60
AZ 80 68 85 90
AR 71 83 70 92
CA 68 65 71 60
co 79 78 84 88
CT 81 70 68 91
DE 72 61 92 81
FL 80 83 79 83
GA 67 45 96 92
1D 69 95 92 58
IL 73 95 75 93
IN 73 90 45 100
IA 76 89 58 80
KS 74 85 91 77
KY 75 84 78 92
LA 81 78 68 69
ME 82 70 96 70
MD 73 90 100 95
MA 85 60 76 79
MI 82 90 76 50
MN 76 88 70 91
MS 75 83 84 84
MO 73 97 99 61
MT 70 101

NE 73 101 83 77

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79: very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-25 NASS, USDA


National

Crop Agreultura

Statistics

Production Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released October 12, 1994, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts
refer to October 1, 1994.

Corn Up 4 Percent
Soybeans Up 6 Percent

Corn production is forecast at a record high 9.60 billion bushels. up 4 percent
from the September 1 forecast and 51 percent above 1993. Based on conditions as
of October 1, yields are expected to average a record high 133.8 bushels per
acre, up 4.8 bushels from last month and 33.1 bushels above a year earlier.
Acreage for harvest as grain is estimated at 71.8 million acres, the same as
last month.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.46 billion bushels as of
October 1, up 6 percent from the September 1 forecast and 32 percent above 1993.
Yield is forecast at a record high 40.5 bushels per acre, 2.3 bushels above
September 1 and 7.9 bushels above 1993. The previous record high yield of 37.6
was set in 1992.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
information call (202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (10-94)


season but up slightly from the 1992-93 season. Harvest will be delayed through
much of the State due to extremely hot temperatures which also caused fruit size
to be small.

Arizona's lemon crop is expected to be 4.70 million boxes (179.000 tons), down
10 percent from a year ago. Approximately 4 percent of the lemon crop was
harvested.

Tangelos: The 1994-95 Florida tangelo crop is forecast at 3.20 million boxes

(144,000 tons), 4 percent less than last season but 5 percent more
than the 1992-93 crop. Decreased fruit per tree offset larger fruit size for
the lower production.

Temples: The 1994-95 forecast of Florida temple production is 2.60 million

boxes (117,000 tons), up 16 percent from last season and up 4 percent
from the 1992-93 season. Both the fruit per tree and fruit size are up from
last year.

Tangerines: The 1994-95 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 303,000 tons,

5 percent less than last season but 23 percent greater than
two years ago. The Florida tangerine forecast is 4.00 million boxes
(190,000 tons), down 2 percent from last season. The fruit set for Sunburst and
Honey varieties is down from last season but the number of trees increased and
fruit size is larger.

The initial forecast for California tangerines is 2.20 million boxes, down

4 percent from last year’s level of 2.30 million boxes. Quality is average and
picking will begin in mid-October. Arizona's tangerine production is forecast
at 800.000 boxes. 20 percent less than last year. Lower yields offset increased
acreage in Arizona.

K-Early Citrus: The initial forecast of K-Early Citrus Fruit is 150,000 boxes

. (7,000 tons), down 29 percent from last season’s 210.000 boxes.
Harvest has started in limited quantities on this early maturing variety which
goes mainly for fresh consumption.

Florida Citrus: Groves, trees. and fruit were in very good to excellent

condition in September. Rainfall during September in all
growing areas was more than average, which created soggy conditions in the
Lowland and Flatwoods groves. Some of the early fruit were splitting as a
result of the excessive moisture. Fruit size was larger than normal because of
the early bloom this past spring and near ideal growing conditions since the
bloom period. Harvest of white and colored seedless grapefruit gained momentum.
Navel and Hamlin oranges, early tangerines. and K-Early Citrus fruit were all
harvested in limited quantities as each passed maturity tests. Caretakers cut
cover crops, sprayed for fall pests, and applied the last fertilization of the
year. Dead and dying trees were removed and replaced.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-12 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

1,000 Acres ---- 1,000 Cwt ----
AR : 1,230 1,400 5,050 5,300 §,600 62,094 78,400
CA : 437 485 8,300 8,400 8,600 36,271 41,710
LA : 530 615 4,550 4,750 4,850 24,108 29,828
MS : 245 295 6,700 §,740 12,985 16,933
MO 1/ : 93 112 4,900 4,900 4,557 5,488
TX : 298 338 5.900 5.900 16,095 19,942
US : 833 3,245 5,766 156,110 192,301

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All
1,000 Cwt
1992 : 128,015 50,633 1,010 179, 658
1993 : 103,064 51.873 1,173 156.110
1994 L/ : 130,548 60,728 1,025 192,301

L/ Indicated October 1, 1994, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultura) Statistics Board
October 1994 A-12 NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain:
and United States.

Area Harvested

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
1993 and Forecasted October 1. 1994

State

1993 1994

1,000 Acres
AL d/ 19 20
AR aus 230
co 190 170
GA d/ 40 35
IL 210 180
KS 2,800 2,800
KY 1/ 10 20
LA 120 110
MS 65 72
MO 640 620
NE 1,250 1,200
NM 165 160
NC 1/ 15 20
OK 290 290
SC L/ 8 15
SD 210 130
TN 1/ 39 27
TX 3,200 3,200
US 9,486 9,299

50.
70,
48.
55.
88.
72,
85.
70.
75.
83.
89.
40.
55.
50.
55.
52.
80.
58.

SPSSDBDODOGDOCOOODGCOO

&

68.9 567,867

Production

1994

Oct 1
we eetee -- 1,000 Bushels --
50.0 722 1,000
70.0 12.470 . 16,100
50.0 7.980 8,500
55.0 1.440 1,925
90.0 17,430 16.200
72.0 176.400 201,600
85.0: 750 1.700
70.0 7,200 7,700
75.0 4,225 5.400
86.0 46,720 53.320
91.0 73,750 109,200
40.0 7,425 6.400
55.0 675 1,100
50.0 14,500 14,500
55.0 160 825
55.0 10,500 7,150
80.0 3,120 2,160
58.0 182,400 185.600

l/ Estimates for current year carried forward from

Crop Production

October 1994

A-ll

earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


with 1,845,950 running bales ginned to the same date last year and
1,664,150 running bales in 1992.

All Hay: Production is forecast at 154 million tons, an increase of 2 percent
from the August 1 forecast and 3 percent above the 1993 crop.

Adequate to excessive moisture supplies in many States resulted in somewhat

heavier yields than earlier anticipated. Acreage harvested. at 60.3 million

acres, is unchanged from August 1 but is slightly below last year’s

60.4 million. Overall, yields are expected to average 2.55 tons per acre, up

.04 ton from August. The 1993 average was 2.46 tons per harvested acre.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Alfalfa hay production is forecast at

82.5 million tons, up 1 percent from the August 1
forecast and up 2 percent from 1993. Area harvested, at 24.7 million acres. is
unchanged from August 1 but is slightly below the 1993 level. Yields are
expected to average 3.34 tons per acre, .03 ton higher than expected in August
and .07 ton above last year. A longer growing season and adequate moisture
combined to produce a larger. better quality crop. Isolated areas of the Corn
Belt and some of the Mountain States did not share in the abundant moisture,
which is reflected in their lower yields.

All Other Hay: Production of all other hay is expected to total 71.4 million

tons. up 2 percent from August 1 and 5 percent above the 1993
crop. Area harvested, at 35.6 million acres, is unchanged from August 1 but is
Slightly below last year. Yields are expected to reach 2.00 tons per acre, up
.04 ton from August 1 and up .09 ton from 1993. Favorable growing conditions
contributed to increased production with only a few Southeastern States
experiencing delays and losses due to excessive moisture. Some Corn Belt and
Mountain States experienced drought conditions which reduced yields and
production.

Dry Edible Beans: Production of dry beans is forecast at 28.5 million cwt,

2 percent above the August 1 forecast and 31 percent above
last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.82 million acres, 14 percent above
a year ago. Yields are forecast at 1,566 pounds per acre as of October 1, up
28 pounds from August 1 and 201 pounds above last year.

Harvest progress is wel) ahead of norma) across the country pushed by early
planting in the spring and hot, dry weather in late summer. Combining is
virtually finished in Nebraska; near 90 percent in Washington, Idaho, Wyoming,
and Colorado. California growers are making good progress with nearly ideal
growing and harvest conditions. Harvest across North Central States is well
ahead of last year.

Yields have taken a jump compared with last year. when heavy rains and early
frost took a heavy toll. Summer heat curtailed second and third blooms but
pushed a heavy first bloom to early maturity. Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wyoming
enjoyed yield increases of up to 700 bags over a year ago. Michigan and some
areas of Minnesota had too much rain during the summer which hurt yields.
Michigan had some fields drowned out. Weather in Texas was generally too hot
and dry for good dry bean growth.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-8 NASS, USDA


Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State. and United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Crop and State

1992 1993 1994
Tons
Grapes (Table Type)
CA : 645,000 630,000 630.000
Grapes (Wine Type) :
CA : 2,145,000 2,345,000 2,400,000
Grapes (Raisin Type) 2/ :
CA : 2,670,000 2,410,000 2,500,000
All Grapes :
AZ 3/ : 25,000 24,000 26,000
AR 3/ : 5,000 8,000 6.000
CA : 5,460,000 5,385,000 5,530,000
GA 3/ : 3.400 3.400 4,000
MI : 47,000 55,000 63,000
MO 3/ : 1,850 2,350 2,700
NY : 180,000 118,000 185,000
NC 3/ : 1,300 1,500 1,500
OH 3/ : 10.300 6,000 7.200
OR 3/ : 12,300 12,300 13,500
PA : 78,000 54,000 70.000
SC 3/ : 500 600 700
WA : 227,000 354,000 216.000
US 6,051,650 6,024,150 6,125,600
L/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):
1992-19,450; 1993-8,600.
2/ Fresh basis.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Productton Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1994 A-32 NASS, USDA


Texas Citrus: Harvest of early oranges began on a limited basis in the Valley

by the end of September. Quality on all citrus varieties looked
good. Size of fruit varied from grove to grove. Caretakers were busy with
normal spraying programs.

Apples: The final forecast of the 1994 apple crop places production at a record
high 10.9 billion pounds, up slightly from the August 1 forecast and

1 percent above last year’s production. This level surpasses the 1987 previous

record by over 100 million pounds.

The Eastern States expect 2.59 billion pounds. virtually unchanged from the
August 1 forecast but 6 percent less than 1993. New York growers are well into
the harvest. Heavy fruit drop resulted as warm temperatures hastened maturity.
Many growers also report significant amounts of hail damaged fruit to be
diverted to juice. North Carolina's harvest reached the half-way mark but is
running 12 percentage points behind average. Uneven fruit size and a spotty
crop reduced crop potential in Pennsylvania. Cool nights and sunny days
improved flavor and color in Virginia’s crop. Trees experienced a hard winter
followed by a light bloom in the spring which contributed to a short crop.

Production in the Central States is forecast at 1.28 billion pounds, down

17 percent from last year. The Michigan harvest is ahead of schedule. Above
normal temperatures in mid-to-late September brought the crop to maturity much
sooner than the cool August had led growers to expect. The Jonathan harvest is
nearing completion. while Empire and Rome harvests are gearing up. Some Golden
Delicious matured so rapidly that they became too soft for CA storage before
they could be picked. Many growers are waiting on Red Delicious to color more.
The volume of Northern Spys, the premier frozen slice variety, 1s down because
of bud damage from last winter's bitter cold. Winter damage was most prevalent
in the northwest. Hail damage has sent many bins that would normatly have gone
to fresh apple shippers to juicers.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 6.99 billion pounds, unchanged
from the August 1 forecast but 8 percent above the 1993 crop. Washington's
record crop harvest is in ful) swing. This year’s production of 5.50 million
pounds, passed by 10 percent the previous record of 5.00 million reached three
different times in the past. Red delicious harvest neared the half-way point in
Chelan county and was active in Yakima county. Some producers are leaving fruit
on trees due to quality. Lack of water could make orchards susceptible to
winter damage later this year.

Pecans: The October forecast for U.S. pecan production is 198 million pounds

Cin-shell basis), down 5 percent from last month and down 46 percent
from last year. State forecasts decreased from September for Alabama, Georgia.
and Louisiana.

The Georgia forecast decreased 7 percent from last month to 70.0 million pounds.
Disease continues to be a major problem for most growers. Heavy rains on
October 1 and 2 may have caused some loss in production. The Texas production
forecast remains at 40.0 million pounds, down 47 percent from last year. Crop
progress continued to vary widely across the State. Harvest has Started in
south Texas with 3 percent of the crop harvested. New Mexico's pecan production

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-13 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90. TX-85: grapefruit-CA
Desert & AZ-64 in 1992-93 and earlier, 67-starting in 1993-94.
CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80: lTemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus &
Temples-90; tangerines-CA and AZ-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ The first forecast for CA grapefruit “Other Areas" will be as of
April 1, 1995.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-31 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States, 1993-94 (Metric Units)

Crop
Metric Tons

Potatoes :

Winter 2/ > 21.05 21.60 115,760 107,590

Spring : 26.29 27.97 891,490 1,023,260

Summer : 25.82 26.60 932.220 961,480

Fall : 38.27 17,505,720

Total 2/ : 36.48 19,445,190
Hops : 1.98 1.91 34,540 32,820
Peaches : 1,205,010 1,116,200
Pears : 861,100 889,040
Sweet Cherries : 152,950 152,590
Tart Cherries : 146,690 116,480
Apricots : 87,410 125,010
Olives (CA) : 110,680 95,250
Dried Prunes (CA) : 109,770 158.760
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) : 25,580 36,290
Almonds (CA) : 222,260 290.300
Walnuts (CA) : 235,870 199,580

1/ 1994 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1993 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-8 NASS, USDA


Ory Edible Beans:

Area Harvested

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994 1/

Yie

1d

Production

State beeen ee ete ee eee eer t sees

- 1,000 Acres -
104.0 135.
185.0 205.
123.0 138.
27.0 28.
380.0 330.
88.0 120.
11.0 10.
130.0 180.
14.0 12.
34.0 37.
380.0 490.

8.9 9
27.0 28

6.1 5
42.0 37
10.0 9
30.0 44
600.0

1/ Excludes beans grown

Crop Production
October 1994

1,

--- Pounds --
2.110 2,100
1,530 1,650
1,700 2,050
1,400 1.600
1,600 1,200

950 1,650
1,410 2,000
1.400 2,050
1.350 1,800
1,350 1,400

780 1,250
1,960 2,250
1,150 1,000

440 270
1,900 2,000
1,450 1,800
1,300 2,000

or garden seed.
2/. Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

A-22

121
422

40
644
158
592

22,615

1,000 Cwt

2,194
2,831
2,091
378
6,080
836
155
1,820
189
459
2,964
174
311
27
798
145
390

21,842

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


September Weather Summary: In marked contrast to the 1992 and 1993 growing

seasons when late-September frosts nipped
slow-maturing northern Corn Belt crops, freeze-free weather prevailed.
Furthermore, generally dry weather covered the southern two-thirds of the Corn
Belt until late in the month, when a storm brought cool. showery conditions
during its week-long traversal of the Midwest. In the northern Corn Belt. heavy
rain fell during a 4-day span at mid-month, and again for several days toward
month's end.

With the exception of a week-long stretch before mid-month, the polar jet stream
failed to make its normal seasonal dip southward along the west coast. resulting
in a late-month heat wave and an intensification of drought in the Northwest.
With an average temperature of 67.6 degrees F, Portland, OR. notched its warmest
September on record. Areas from eastern Oregon to western Montana measured
monthly temperatures up to 6 degrees F above normal and rainfall less than

25 percent of normal, adversely affecting winter wheat planting and emergence.
Precipitation was also below normal throughout the Plains’ winter wheat areas
despite occasional light rain showers.

Tropical-origin moisture and storminess continued to frequent the Eastern
States. On September 4 and 5, a storm lashed the Middle Atlantic and New
England coastlines with gale-force winds. Then on September 16, a tropical
disturbance made landfal) in Louisiana before crossing the Southeast. dropping
locally heavy rain, An early-season “nor‘easter” rode up the east coast on
September 21-24, producing high winds and leaving a swath of heavy rain from
Florida to Maine. At month’s end. an approaching tropical disturbance spread
heavy rain across the Florida Keys, where Key West totaled 8.88 inches on
September 29-30. Monthly rainfall was above normal throughout the Florida
Peninsula, which was frequently trapped underneath a rich fetch of tropical
moisture. September totals included 13.50 inches in Miami (2-month total of
30.14 inches), 13.00 inches in Key West, and 9.79 inches in Jacksonville.
Farther west. however, tropical moisture exerted no influence. In fact.
Shreveport, LA. experienced its driest September on record, with only

0.08 inches of rain.

Several impressive late-season heat waves affected the Northwestern and North-
Central States. The first peaked in the northern Plains on September 9, as
Minot, ND (102 degrees F) registered its hottest day since September 1, 1991.
Another heat episode pushed temperatures above 100 degrees F as far north as
Medford. OR, on September 21. Simultaneously, the month's only significant
snowfall affected the central High Plains. Casper. WY, collected 4.9 inches of
snow on September 21. Toward month's end, heat again enveloped the Nation's
northwestern quadrant, as highs soared above 90 degrees F as far north as
eastern Washington (as late as September 27) and western South Dakota (on
September 28).

In Hawaii, Hilo’s September rainfall of 23.28 inches was nearly 15 inches above
normal. More than half of the monthly total fell during a 3-day period
(September 18-20).

Winter Wheat Seedings: Seeding of the 1995 winter wheat crop began in late
August in a few States. Collective progress in the
major producing States ran ahead of average through late September. As of

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-3 NASS, USDA


October 2, 54 percent of the intended acreage was seeded, equaling the 5-year
average. The pace has slowed because producers in the Pacific Northwest and
southern Plains are waiting for rain.

General Crop Comments: Starting in early September, the Western States

experienced hot, dry weather that slowed the seeding of
small grains. Scattered showers across the midwest the first week of September
delayed harvesting. However, these showers helped winter wheat germinate.
Early-planted winter wheat in some Great Lakes States was standing at 2 inches.
Later in the month, clear weather in the upper Great Plains pushed spring wheat
harvesting to completion ahead of normal. Continued dry weather in the Western
States resulted in some fields being reseeded. By mid-month, the warm, dry
weather brought the row crops quickly to maturity across the midwest. Corn and
soybeans reached maturity ahead of normal. Cool weather in the Southern States
Slowed cotton development. while a slow moving storm system centered over the
midwest slowed corn and soybean ‘harvesting. Later in the month, heavy rainfall
in the middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions delayed row crop
harvesting. Scattered frost was reported in the Ohio Valley but no damage to
row crops was reported. Continued dry weather in the Pacific Northwest delayed
small grain planting, while warm weather in the Southern States caused cotton to
open bolls ahead of schedule. By month’s end, producers turned their attention
to soybean harvesting and postponed corn harvesting.

Corn for Grain: Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 71.8 million
acres, unchanged from last month but 14 percent above last

year’s flood reduced acreage. As of October 2, 19 percent of the crop in the
17 major corn States had been harvested, nearly equal to the average for the
date. In the 17 States, 86 percent of the crop was reported good to excellent
compared to 49 percent a year earlier. The October 1 corn objective yield data
indicate the second highest ear count per acre for the 10 Corn Objective Yield
States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio,
South Dakota, and Wisconsin). The ear count is only slightly below the record
final ear count set in 1992.

As of October 2, 1994, 98 percent of the lowa corn crop was reported in good to
excellent condition and 13 percent of the acreage had been harvested. The
October 1 ear count would be a record high. if realized.

The Illinois corn crop was reported 91 percent good to excellent. 19 points
above last month. Only 13 percent of the crop had been harvested compared with
an average of 23 percent. The ear count for Illinois is second only to the
record set in 1992.

The Indiana crop was reported 77 percent good to excellent, up 10 points from
last month. The crop was 11 percent harvested compared with a 16 percent
average. If reatized, the ear count would be the third highest on record.

The Minnesota crop is reported 88 percent good to excellent. up 5 points from
last month. Six percent of the crop has been harvested, equal to the average
for the first of October. The ear count is slightly below the record high of
1992 when the late maturing crop was hit by an early frost.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-4 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next “Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on

November 9, 1994.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843

Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice (202) 720-9526

Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Tobacco, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7681

Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068

Charlies Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Stephen Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285

Kirby Cavett - Peanuts, Hay (202) 720-8843

Roger Latham - Cotton (202) 720-5944

Linda McMillan - Nuts, Grapes (202) 720-4215

Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-2157

Blair Smith - Citrus. Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Barbara Soltes - Noncitrus Fruits (202) 720-7688

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1994 B-19

NASS, USDA


Tobacco:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Area Harvested

Production

19
CT : 1
FL : 7
GA 2 43
IN : 8
ky : 207
MD : 9
MA :
MO : 2
NC : 271
OH : 9
PA : 10
Sc : 62
TM 2 «69
VA 2 49
WV : 2
WI : 4
US : 747

2,320
19,575
100,980
18,900
524,378
11,931
678
3,298
609,873
21,840
20,840
112,320
146,556
111,459
3,623
13,100

1,721,671

2,413
18,673
96,320
17,415
455,080
12,255
694
4,760
606,210
18,900
20,300
110.760
139,423
99,544
3,600

7,244

1.613.591

19,620
108,100
139,580
105,852

3,600
6,380

1,563,065

Crap Product
October 1994

93 1994
-- Acres ------
500 1,510
100 7,000
000 39,000
100 7,100
.300 186,400
500 8,500
400 460
800 3,300
.000 243,500
000 8,500
000 9,600
000 47,000
940 62,440
100 46,480
000 2,000
800 3.300
,540 676,090
ion

Yield
1993 1994
--- Pounds --
1,609 1,637
2,630 2,550
2,240 2,200
2,150 2,150
2,195 2,363
1,290 1,450
1,735 1,633
1,700 2,200
2,237 2,374
2.100 2,300
2.030 2,044
2,130 2,300
1,993 2,235
2,027 2,277
1,800 1,800
1,509 = 1,933
2,159 2,312

A-28

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1993 and Forecasted October 1, 1994
(Domestic Units)
Yield per Acr Production
Crop and Unit Deter ete ne cee nen ete nen nee rr erence ee

Corn for Grain Bu : 100.7 133.8 6,344,045 9,257,170 9,602,340
Sorghum for Grain " : 59.9 68.9 567,867 635,030 640,380
Rice l/ Cwt : 5,510 5,926 156,110 190, 288 192,301

Soybeans for Beans 2/Bu : 32.6 40.5 1,868,678 2,316,077 2,458,087
Peanuts for Nuts Lb : 2,008 2,543 3,392,415 4,117,000 4,111,075

Sunflower 2/ : 1,037 1,384 2,596,716 4,553,980
All Cotton 1/ Bale: 606 690 16,144.9 19,024.6 19,302.6
Upland if" : 661 686 15,764.3 18, 657.6 18,937.6
Amer -Pima i/"  : 967 = 1,009 380.6 367.0 365.0
Cottonseed Ton : 6,347.2 7,395.5 7,502.5
Al) Hay 3/ “ 2 2,46 2.55 148,854 151,425 153,885
Alfalfa 3/ "3: 3.27 3.34 80,878 81,616 82,477
All Other 3/ "or 49h 2.00 67.976 69,809 71,408
Ory Edible Beans 1/ Cwt : 1,365 1,566 21,842 27,981 28.507
Ory Edible Peas 1/2/ * : 2,270 1,762 3,292 2,255
Austrian Winter :

Peas 1/2/ “+ 1,476 1,091 155 48
Lentils 1/2/ “——: 1,403 1,043 2,006 1,856
All Tobacco : 2,159 2,312 1,613,591 1,541,572 = 1,563,065
Sugarbeets Ton : 18.6 20.8 26,249 29,818 29,983
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed “ 2 32.8 33.0 31,101 31,164 31.052
Pasture and Range :

Feed 4/ Pct : 83 77
Apples, Comm’1 3/ Lb: 10,722,800 10,822,500 10,862,500
Grapes Ton : 6,024.2 6,101.6 6,125.6
Pecans Lb: 365,000 209,000 198,000
Hazelnuts §/ Ton : 41.0 19.0 19.0
Citrus Fruits 6/ : 1993-94 1994-95 1994-95

Oranges Ton : 10,281 11,364

Lemons "oy 984 958

1/ Yield in pounds.

2/ 1993 revised.

3/ September estimate carried forward from August 1.

4/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1983-92
average is 73 percent.

5/ September 1 forecast carried forward from mid-August forecast published
in “Hazelnut Production” released August 24, 1994.

6/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the

completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-4 NASS, USDA


The Washington all grape crop is 216,000 tons, up slightly from August but
39 percent less than last season. Harvest should be complete by mid-October for
Concords. Yields vary but quality is good. Wine grape clusters are smaller and
lighter with very good quality reported. .

The New York all grape forecast is 185,000 tons. up 6 percent from August and up
57 percent from a year ago. Good growing conditions dominated the season.
Winter injury reduced yields on many hybrid and vinifera varieties in the Finger
Lakes region. Growers of Concord grapes are concerned about meeting minimum
brix required by processors.

The Pennsylvania Crop forecast, at 70,000 tons, remains unchanged from August's
forecast and is 30 percent above last year’s crap. This forecast does not fully
reflect the damage caused by the hail storm in Erie County on September 25,
1994. Forty-four percent of the crop has been harvested.

The Michigan forecast is 63,000 tons, up 26 percent from August's forecast and
up 15 percent from 1993. The Niagara crop has been harvested with yields
slightly better than anticipated. Half of the Concord crop has been harvested
with about two weeks remaining. Concords have yielded well above earlier
forecasts.

Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 1994-95 U.S. grapefruit crop (excluding
California's “Other Areas") is 2.68 million tons, up 9 percent from

last season. Last year, California’s "Other Areas" produced 194,000 tons

(5.80 million boxes). The first forecast for that type of grapefruit will be

made April 1, 1995,

The October 1 forecast for Florida’s al] grapefruit crop is 55.5 million boxes
(2.36 million tons), up 9 percent from last season and 1 percent above the
1992-93 crop. Average fruit size appears to be large and quality is good. The
Florida white seedless grapefruit forecast is 25.0 million boxes (1.06 million
tons), an increase of 2 percent from the 1993-94 crop. The colored seedless
forecast is 29.0 million boxes (1.23 million tons), 14 percent more than last
season. The seedy grapefruit crop is expected to be 1.50 million boxes

(64,000 tons), 43 percent more than last year but 14 percent fewer than

two years ago.

The first forecast for the California desert grapefruit crop is 3.40 million
boxes (114,000 tons), a 3 percent larger crop than a year ago. Quality is
reported as above average and harvest in the California desert is expected to
begin at the end of October. Arizona’s 1994-95 crop is forecast at 1.70 million
boxes (57.000 tons). 3 percent less than last year. Harvest has just begun in
Arizona. Texas’ production is forecast to be 3.60 million boxes (144,000 tons),
up 20 percent from last season. Production continues to increase from the
freezes of the 1980's.

Lemons: The 1994-95 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 958,000 tons, down 3 percent
from last season's crop but up 2 percent from the 1992-93 crop.

The initial forecast for the California lemon crop is 20.5 million boxes
(779,000 tons). If realized, this year’s crop would be down 1 percent from last

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-11 NASS, USDA


Lentils: Production of lentils is estimated at 1.86 million cwt, down 7 percent
from last year but 19 percent above 1992. Harvested area, at

178,000 acres, was 24 percent larger than last year and 41 percent above

two years ago. The average yield of 1,043 pounds per acre was down 360 pounds

from 1993 and 200 pounds below 1992. Hot. dry weather led to lower yields.

Dry Edible Peas: Production of dry peas is estimated at 2.26 million cwt. down
32 percent from a year ago and 11 percent below 1992.

Harvested area is estimated at 128.000 acres. off 12 percent from last year and

17 percent below 1992. The average yield of 1,762 pounds per acre is down

508 pounds from last year but is 127 pounds better than 1992. Hot. dry weather

cut yields but quality remained good.

Austrian Winter Peas: The Austrian winter pea crop of 48,000 cwt fell

69 percent from last year and was 52 percent below 1992.
Area harvested, at 4,400 acres, fell 58 percent from 1993 and was 49 percent
below 1992. The average yield of 1,091 pounds per acre was 385 pounds below
1993,

Winter Potatoes, 1994 Revised: The final 1994 production of winter potatoes was
estimated at 2.37 million cwt, down 7 percent

from last year and 21 percent below 1992. Final area harvested was

12.300 acres, down 10 percent from 1993 and 8 percent below 1992. The average

yield of 193 cwt per acre climbed 5 cwt above 1993 but was 31 cwt short of 1992.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on

October 1, 1994, for the 48 contiguous
States, was 77 percent, down 6 points from October 1, 1993, but 4 points above
the 1983-92 average for the date. Conditions were better than last year in
22 States. below last year in 24 States, and unchanged in 2 States.

Pasture and range feed conditions were reported very poor in California, Idaho,
Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming. Pasture and range feed
conditions were reported good to excellent in 29 States.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1994 is forecast at 1.56 billion

pounds, up 1 percent from the September 1 forecast but down 3 percent
from last year’s output. Area expected to be harvested totals 676,090 acres.
down 10 percent from last year. The average yield of 2,312 pounds per acre for
October 1 is up 32 pounds from the September 1 forecast. Warm, sunny weather in
September was excellent for harvesting and curing of the tobacco crop. The
tobacco harvest was close to completion by October 1 for Burley and Flue-cured
tobacco.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 850 million pounds, up 1 percent from
the forecast of a month ago but 4 percent below last year. Harvesting of flue-
cured tobacco was slightly ahead of schedule with yields averaging 2.349 pounds
per acre, 33 pounds above the September forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-9 NASS, USDA


Sunfl

Varieta

ower:

Area Harvestéd, Yield, and Production. by Type, State,

1992-93 and Forecasted October 1

Type & io -+ 22 eee e rene tect r ence ctr eter nr e errr terre r erent reste

State : 1

993 1994
1,000 Acres
54 69
133 160
260 390
35 39
970 §=1,430
601 651
12 10
28 37
2,093 2,786
23 31
37 85
80 95
22 15
195- 215
19 29
17 14
18 2l
411 505
77 100
170 245
340 485
57 54
1,165 1,645
620 680
29 24
46 58
2,504 3,291

BeeP

1
1
1
1

1,

1

Be

Peer

e

120
350
100
090
840
270
000

131
044

240
110
200
230

780
350
200

111
000

156
298
124
144

830
+272
117

1,190
1,400
1,350
1,100
1,390
1,450
1,100

1,360
1,384

59,400
178,020
247,500

42,000

1,162,800
516,800
36,720

46,580
2,289,820

32,200
32,890
63,550
12,600
107,000
13,600
26,100

26,745
314,685

91,600
210,910
311,050

54,600

1,269,800
530,400
62,820

73,325
2,604,505

60,480
179,550
286,000

38,150
814,800
763,270

12,000

31,668
2,185,918

28,520
41,070
96,000
27,060
152,100
25,650
20.400

19,998
410,798

89,000
220,620
382,000

65.210
966,900
788,920

32,400

51,666
2,596,716

119,000
343,000
654,750
59,400
2,286,550
986.000
26,400

78,880
4,553,980

l/ Estimates include all States except AK and HI

Crop Product
October 1994

jon

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production. by Type, State
nd United States, 1993 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Area Harvested : Yield Production 1/

1994

1993 1994 1993 1993: 1994

ween nee 1,000 Bales 2/

0 741 469.0 710.0
0 1,169 790.0 765.0
0 800 1,094.0 1,550.0
0 1,337 2,918.0 3,050.0
0 706 77.6 100.0
0 750 733.0 1,390.0
al 480 0.6 Lt
0 814 1,105.0 1,500.0
0 788 1,550.0 2,150.0
0 727 376.0 530.0
0 742 78.0 85.0
0 680 | 429.0 690.0
0 316 270.0 240.0
0 711 204.0 320.0
0 656 545.0 800.0
0 462 5,095.0 5,000.0
7 650 30.1 56.5
8 601 678 686 15,764.3 18,937.6
AZ 56.9 48.0 734 800 800 87.0 80.0
CA 91.0 79.8 1,192 1,263 1,263 225.9 210.0
NM 11.0 11.8 816 814 814 18.7 20.0
1X 30.0 34.0 784 805 776 49.0 55.0
US 188.9 173.6 967 1,015 1,009 380.6 365.0
All :
AL : 430.0 460.0 524 720 741 469.0 710.0
AZ 2 371.9 362.0 1,132 1,120 1,120 877.0 845.0
AR 970.0 930.0 541 774 800 1,094.0 1,550.0
CA : 1,136.0 1,174.8 1,328 1.364 1,332 3,143.9 3,260.0
FL 3/ $3.5 68.0 696 706 706 77.6 100.0
GA 600.0 890.0 586 750 750 733.0 1,390.0
KS 3/ 1.4 1.1 206 480 480 0.6 1.1
LA 875.0 885.0 606 759 814 1,105.0 1,500.0
MS 1,300.0 1,310.0 572 769 788 1,650.0 2,150.0
MO 335.0 350.0 539 686 727 376.0 530.0
NM 59.7 66.8 777 754 754 96.7 105.0
NC 385.0 487.0 535 670 680 429.0 690.0
OK 350.0 365.0 370 329 316 270.0 240.0
Sc 198.0 216.0 495 689 711 204.0 320.0
TN 615.0 585.0 425 631 656 545.0 800.0
TX 5,080.0 5,234.0 486 464 464 5,144.0 5,055.0
VA 3/ 22.8 41.7 634 650 650 30.1 56.5
US :12,783.3 13,426.4 606 682 690 16.144.9 19,302.6

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1993 and Forecasted October 1, 1994
(Oomestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

Crop tere terete eee ener eeeeeee
1993 1994
1,000 Acres

Corn : 73,323 78,767 62,991 71,757
Sorghum : 10,492 10,199 9,486 9,299
Rice : 2,920.0 3,355.0 2,833.0 3,245.0
Soybeans 2/ : 60,075 61,775 57,287 60.702
Peanuts > 1,733.5 1,682.0 1,689.8 1,616.5
Sunflower 2/ : 2,776 3,430 2,504 3,291
All Cotton : 13,438.3 13,983.8 12,783.3 13,426.4

Upland : 13,248.3 13,808.8 12,594.4 13,252.8

Amer-Pima : 190.0 175.0 188.9 173.6
All Hay : 60,398 60,315

Alfalfa : 24,762 24,683

All Other : 35,636 35,632
Ory Edible Beans : 1,849.9 1,971.7 1,600.0 1,819.8
Dry Edible Peas 2/ : 149.0 131.0 145.0 128.0
Austrian Winter :

Peas 2/ : 13.0 6.9 10.5 4.4
Lentils 2/ : 145.0 180.0 143.0 178.0
Tobacco : 747.5 676.1
Sugarbeets : 1,437.7 1,468.0 1,409.4 1,439.2
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed 948.3 941.7

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop. ie., grain, beans. nuts, etc.
2/ 1993 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-3 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)
moomat Hie October 1, 1994
ROH } UPDATED BLWEEKLY
MOIST
Y lay MoIsT O
ERTREMETNL J
+

tt i
y Hh) MOIST my, = MOIST

Ady) sevens, =y t-7

+
VTE 1 / on ry’ 1
q Uy WA v4 he

Hepat ar apt S
©. EXTREME
qf > ! ra rate ) MOIST >
waa / ke
i u Z fa
j i Moist
yt
Moise
NOAMUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on preliminary reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness: responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as wel) as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-2 NASS. USDA


Tobacco:

State, and United States,

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class. Type,
1993 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Class and Type

Class 1, Flue-Cured
Type 11, Old and
Middle Belts
N

VA

US
Type 12, Eastern NC
Belt

NC

Type 13, NC Border &

SC Belt
Type 14, GA-FL Belt

Total 11-14

Class 2, Fire-Cured

Type 21, VA Belt
VA

Type 22, Eastern
District
KY
TM
US
Type 23, Western
District
KY
TN
US
Total 21-23
Class 3. Air-Cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-Cured
Type 31. Burley
IN

Type 32, Southern MD

Belt
MD
PA

US
Total 31-32

Area Harvested

--- Pounds ---

2,100
2,035
2,083

2,325

2,355
2,130
2,219

2,630
2,240
2,295
2,217

1,560

2,430
2,400
2,409

2,880
2,580
2,838
2,457

2,150
2,175
1,700
2,035
2,100
1,935
2.060
1,800
2,108

2,375
2,300
2,354

2,400

2,350
2,300
2,319

2,550
2,200
2,253
2,349

1,600

2,450
2,450
2,450

2,750
2,500
2,714
2,449

2,150
2,200

~ 1,000 Pounds --

Crop Production
October 1994

---- Acres -----
99,000 88.000

: 36.000 34.000
: 135,000 122,000
: 129,000 117,000
34,000 30.000
52.000 47,000
86.000 77.000
7,100 7,000
43/000 39,000

: 50.100 46.000
: 400.100 362.000
1,200 1,400
3,500 3,800
7,700 8.200
115200 12.000
3,650 3,800
600 640
4,250 4,440
16.650 17.840

: 8,100 7,100
2 196.000 175,000
: 27800 31300
9.000 8,500
95000 8500
61,000 53.000
11/800 11,000

: 21000 2,000
: 2991700 268.400
9,500 8,500
3.500 3.600

: 13/000 12,100
: 312,700 280.500
A-26

207,900 209,000
73,260 78.200
281.160 287,200
299,925 280,800
80,070 70,500
110,760 108,100
190.830 178,600
18,673 17.850
96,320 85,800
114,993 103,650
886,908 850.250
1,872 2,240
8,505 9,310
18,480 20,090
26,985 29,400
10.512 10,450
1,548 1,600
12,060 12,050
40,917 43,690
17,415 15,265
426,300 411,250
4,760 7,260
18,315 17,850
18,900 19,550
118.035 116.600
24,308 25,300
3,600 3,600
631.633 616.675
12,255 12,325
6,650 7,020
18,905 19,345
650,538 636,020
-- continued

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


AIl cotton production for 1994 is forecast at a record high 19.3 million bales.
up 1 percent from September and 20 percent larger than 1993. Yields are
expected to average 690 pounds per harvested acre. up 8 pounds from last month
and up 84 pounds from last year. The forecast for Arkansas increased by
50,000 bales and Louisiana was up 100,000 bales. while the California crop
declined by 50,000 bales.

All orange production is forecast at 11.4 million tons, 11 percent above last
season. Florida’s production amounts to 196 million boxes (8.82 million tons).
13 percent above last season and 5 percent above two years ago. Early and mid-
season varieties are expected to produce 118 million boxes (5.31 million tons),
10 percent above last year. The Valencia forecast is 78.0 million boxes

(3.51 million tons), 17 percent above a year ago. California all orange
production is forecast at 65.0 million boxes (2.44 million tons). 4 percent more
than last season. The Navel orange forecast was unchanged from September at
37.0 million boxes (1.39 million tons), up 1 percent from last year’s production
of 36.6 million boxes. The California Valencia forecast is

28.0 million boxes (1.05 million tons), 8 percent more than last year.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice yield for the 1994-95 season is
forecast at 1.54 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast projects
the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The
final 1993-94 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.57 gallons per box at
42.0 degrees Brix.

This report was approved on October 12, 1994, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Agricultural
Statistics Board.

(24 Ve.

Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Richard E. Rominger Rich Alten

| Acting Secretary of
Agriculture
James S. Gilliland

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-2 NASS, USDA


is forecast at 25.0 million pounds, unchanged from last month. A majority of
large producers were affected by an early spring freeze which caused notable
damage to the pecan crop. Hail, wind, and a hot, dry summer also contributed to
the lower production this year.

Oklahoma growers expect to harvest 16.0 million pounds, down 11 percent from
1993. Hot, dry weather reduced production in western Oklahoma, while disease,
insects. and squirrels held back production in eastern Oklahoma. Pecan
production in Alabama is forecast at 4.00 million pounds, down 50 percent from
September's forecast and only 15 percent of last year’s crop. Ory conditions in
September stressed the pecan crop during the nut filling stage. reducing nut
production.

Louisiana's pecan forecast is 6.00 million pounds. down 25 percent from
September and down 62 percent of the previous year’s production. Harvest was
just beginning in early October. Pecan orchards in south central Louisiana are
still recovering from Hurricane Andrew damage. Insects and disease have
contributed to the poor production.

Hazelnuts: The 1994 hazelnut forecast in Oregon and WaShington remained at

19,000 tons, 54 percent below 1993's record high production of
41,000 tons. The crop is expected to total 18,900 tons in Oregon and 100 tons
in Washington.

Harvest was just getting started by the beginning of October. Conditions were
excellent as September was warm and dry in western Oregon, including record high
temperatures the third week of the month. Precipitation during September was
somewhat above average in the southern Willamette Valley to below average in the
Portland area.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production totaled 4.10 million pounds in

September. 5 percent lower than August and 22 percent lower than a
year ago. Year-to-date fresh sales exceeded the same 9-month period of 1993 by
1 percent.

September weather was variable. Hot, humid conditions and sometimes heavy rains
increased spraying to control diseases.

Area devoted to papaya production was 3,255 acres, unchanged from August but
6 percent lower than last September. Harvested area, totaling 2.160 acres, was
up slightly from last month but 14 percent lower than a year ago.

California Fruits and Nuts: September was a busy month for fruit and nut
growers throughout California. Raisin grape
harvest was active with raisins in all stages of harvest from just laid down to
dry, to being rolled and binned. Wine and juice grape harvest was active during
the month. Table grape harvest progréssed. By month’s end, plum and prune
harvest was virtually complete throughout the State. The harvest of late
maturing peaches and nectarines was nearly complete by the end of September.
Apple harvest maintained momentum with Granny Smith, Gala, and Fuji the main
varieties harvested. Pomegranate harvest began in the beginning of the month.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-14 NASS, USDA


Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Improved Varieties 1/
L
AR 2/
CA 2/ 2
FL 2/ 1
GA 26
LA
MS 2/
NM 30
NC 2/ 1
OK
SC 2/
TX 40
104
Native & Seedling
AL 2
AR 2/ 1
FL 2/
GA 4
KS 2/ 3/
LA
MS 2/
NC 2/ 1
OK 8
SC 2/
TX 22
US 41
All Pecans
AL 4
AR 2/ : 1
CA 2/ : 2,
FL 2/ : 2
GA : 30,
KS 2/ 3/ :
LA : 1,
MS 2/ :
NM 30
NC 2/ 2
OK 9
SC 2/
TX 62
Oth Sts 4/ 20
US 166

000
800

500
500

100
000
100

000
300
600
500
000

000

1,000 Pounds
15,

000
200
000
500
500
000
200
000
100
000
100

000

365,

000
600

900

300
000
800
500
500
300
000

900

000
200

000
500
000
500
000
800
000
000
000
500
,000
000
000

18,

700
000

er oN
Paw

40,

oT
TPANVSHOnes

1700
000

1/ Budded. grafted, ‘or topworked varieties.

2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

3/ Estimates for KS are published separately beginning in 1993.

4/ AZ, KS, MO and TN in 1992 and earlier.
No breakdown between varieties available.

Crop Production
October 1994

A-34

AZ, MO, and TN beginning in

1993.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


1993. Yields are expected to average 2.295 pounds per acre. 288 pounds above
last year’s level. Dry weather in Texas allowed peanut harvest to begin at a
normal pace with a few producers waiting for additional moisture before digging.
In Oklahoma. dry weather allowed digging to reach 24 percent completion, well
ahead of average. In New Mexico, prospects remain excellent with unseasonably
warm and dry weather aiding harvest progress.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage is 13.3 million acres, up 5 percent
from last year, while American-Pima harvested acreage amounts to
173,600 acres. 8 percent below 1993.

In early October, 22 percent of Texas cotton acreage was in good to excellent
condition and 60 percent was fair. Boll opening was 67 percent complete.

16 percent ahead of the 5-year average. Precipitation during September caused
new growth in the Plains, creating problems in defoliated fields. Harvest
virtually stopped during the second week of the month due to rain and cool
weather but on October 2, 31 percent of the crop was harvested. 9 percent
greater than average. Objective yield data recorded the lowest large and small
boll counts since 1984. Early boll weights are also the lowest during the past
10 years.

The Delta States (Arkansas. Louisiana, Mississippi. Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated their cotton mostly in fair to good condition in early October. In
Tennessee, 99 percent of the crop was rated good with 21 percent of the Arkansas
crop in excellent condition. Crop condition in Louisiana and Mississippi
improved during September, but deteriorated slightly during the last week of the
month. Boll opening slightly exceeded the average pace in the region, but
openings in Missouri and Tennessee were 1 percent behind the 5-year average.
Data from objective yield surveys show total fruit counts at their third highest
level during the past 10 years in Arkansas and Mississippi and fourth highest in
Louisiana. Mississippi's large boll counts are second highest during this time
period. Bol] weights rank fourth since 1984 in Arkansas and Mississippi and are
third in Louisiana.

Ninety percent of Arizona’s crop was in good to excellent condition with harvest
3 points above the average pace at 23 percent harvested on October 2. All of
California cotton was good to excellent on the same date and 25 percent of the
acreage was rated excellent. Harvest progress equalled the average rate at

5 percent. Objective yield counts show Arizona and California large boll count
as the second lowest since 1984. Boll weights in both States are the lowest in
the past 10 years.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina), the crop was in fair to good condition. Boll opening and harvest
progress exceeded the 5-year average development except in North Carolina where
progress exceeded the average.

American-Pima production is forecast at 365.000 bales. down 2,000 bales from
September's forecast and down 4 percent from 1993. Yields averaged 1,009 pounds
per acre, up 42 pounds from last year. California's crop is rated good to
excellent, with normal progress reported in most areas. Harvest of the Texas’
crop began in the Winter Garden area.

All cotton ginnings totaled 2,332,950 running bales prior to October 1, compared

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-7 . NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production by State
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994 1/

- 1,000 Acres - ce-- TONS ---- 0 e-eeeee 1,000 Tons --------
CA : 136.0 135.0 26.0 28.0 4,230 3,536 3,780
co : 40.0 43.2 23.1 22.3 954 924 963
1D : 204.0 201.0 23.2 26.0 4,900 4,733 5,226
MI : 187.0 187.0 17.0 15.5 3,098 3,179 2,899
MN : 379.0 412.0 14.1 19.0 6,845 5,344 7,828
MT : 54.1 54.1 21.6 22.5 1,272 1,169 1,217
NE : 79.6 74.5 18.5 19.1 1,387 1,473 1,423
ND : 190.9 203.0 16.3 18.7 3,388 3,112 3,796
0H : 17.5 15.0 12.1 17.0 328 212 255
OR : 15.2 16.2 24.5 26.0 394 372 421
TX : 39.2 24.5 21.0 23.0 838 823 564
WY : 64.4 62.0 19.7 19.0 1,437 1,269 1,178
Oth :
Sts 2/: 2.5 11.7 41.2 37.0 72 103 433
US : 1,409.4 1,439.2 18.6 20.8 29,143 26,249 29,983

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production
by State and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted October 1, 1994 J/

Area Harvested Production l/

State .---- 2-2-2 eee re en ee ne nn ne ret nce rer teen c terre
1993 1994 1992 1993 : 1994
tote 1,000 Acres - 9 -e-- TOMS -e-- ee nenee 1,000 Tons --------
FL : 444.0 445.0 34.1 34.0 14,707 15,152 15,130
H1 : 69.9 67.0 80.2 85.0 5,622 5,606 5,695
LA : 390.0 385.0 22.8 23.0 8.706 8.904 8.855
TX : 44,4 44.7. 32.4 30.7 1,328 1,439 1,372
US : 948.3 941.7 32.8 33.0 30,363 31,101 31,052
1/ Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1994 A-29 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted October 1, 1994

Area Harvested Yield Production
State :

1993 1/: 1994 1993 1/ 1993 1/ 1994
1,000 Acres .000 Bushels --
AL : 295 300 24.0 29.0 29.0 7,080 8.700
AR : 3,550 3.250 = 26.0 32.0 33.0 92,300 107,250
DE : 215 220 23.0 33.0 33.0 4,945 7,260
FL 2/ : 50 40 25.0 24.0 24.0 1,250 960
GA : 480 500 17.0 30.0 30.0 8,160 15,000
IL > 9,000 9,400 43.0 43.0 45.0 387,000 423,000
IN 4,850 4,680 46.0 43.0 46.0 223,100 215,280
IA 8,300 8,850 31.0 46.9 $1.0 257,300 451,350
KS 1,900 2,050 28.0 32.0 33.0 53,200 67,650
KY 1,150 1,120 33.0 33.0 33.0 37.950 36.960
LA > 1,300 1,150 24.0 27.0 30.0 31,200 34,500
MD : 570 550 26.0 37.0 37.0 14,820 20.350
MI >: 1,440 1,540 38.0 35.0 36.0 54,720 55.440
MN 5,000 5,600 23.0 39.0 39.0 115,000 218.400
MS 1,950 1,900 22.0 27.0 29.0 42,900 55.100
MO 3,600 4,540 33.0 33.0 36.0 118,800 163.440
NE : 2,500 2.850 36.0 41.0 46.0 90,000 131.100
NJ 2/ : 147 147 29.0 31.0 31.0 4,263 4,557
nC : 1,250 1,350 24.0 29.0 31.0 30.000 41.850
ND : 540 610 17.0 26.0 29.0 9,180 17,690
OH > 4,050 3,850 38.0 44.0 46.0 153,900 177,100
OK 2/ : 260 280 24.0 27.0 27.0 6,240 7,560
PA 2/ : 295 315 39.0 40.0 40.0 11,505 12,600
sc : 520 620 15.0 23.0 25.0 7,800 15,500
so : 1,750 2.400 22.0 30.0 33.0 38,500 79,200
TMN : 1,040 1,050 © 31.0 32.0 33.0 32,240 34,650
1TMX : 205 200 19.0 30.0 31.0 3,895 6,200
VA : 490 520 22.0 30.0 32.0 10,780 16,640
WI : 590 820 35.0 40.0 40.0 20,650 32,800
US 57,287 60,702 32.6 38.2 40.5 1,868,678 2,458,087

1/ Revised.

2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 A-13 NASS, USDA


Almond and pistachio harvest continued. Walnut harvest began in mid-month.
Olive harvest began on a small scale in young trees in Tulare county.

California Citrus: Valencia orange harvest continued. By the end of September,
Navel oranges started to break color. Lemon and grapefruit
harvest continued throughout September.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1994 B-15 . NASS, USDA


the current production forecast of 9.60 billion bushels wil] not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 4.2 percent or approximately 403 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 7.3 percent or approximately 701 million bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn
again as an example. changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during-the past 10 years have averaged 216 million bushels, ranging
from 5 million to 618 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
Production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts
10-year Record Of
:: Differences Between Forecast
290% Confidence:: and Final Estimate
Level

Unit ‘Percent:

: Below: Above
Max.:Final:Final

‘Percent: Quant::

16:3: 5

Feed Grains 1/ 3.4 5.8 0 15 3 7
Corn For Grain 4.2 7.3 701 :: 216 § 618 6 4
Sorghum For Grain 4.6 7.9 Sl :: 34 7 71 6 4
Rice 3.1 5.4 10::: 3 0 12.5 5
Soybeans For : nt

Beans 3.9 6.8 167 :: 45 2 103. 4 6
Cotton 1 8.9 1,718 :: 529 31 1,424 5 5
Ory Edible wt

Beans 4.2 7.3 2:: 0.7 0 1.30 6 4
1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats, and barley.

2/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.

Crop Production Agricultura) Statistics Board

October 1994 B-17 NASS, USDA


Sunfl

ower: Area Planted. by Varietal Type.

State, and United Sta

tes,

1993

1,000 Acres

co
KS
MN
NE
ND
SD
TX

Oth Sts

25
40
90
23
220
20
20

21

Peanuts for Nuts:
and United States

Area Harvested

199.

Area Harvested. Yield, and Production, by State
1993 and Forecasted October 1

4

1,000 Acres
239.0 230.
84.0 75.
697.0 640.
21.8 23.
143.0 150.
102.0 107.
14.0 14.
295.0 285.
94.0 92.
.689.8 1,616

0 1,980 2,000
0 2,320 2,200
0 1,985 2,700
0 2,600 2,750
0 2,095 2,850
0 2,290 2,450
§ 1,750 2,800
0 1,865 2,200
0 1,875 3,000
5 2,008 2,508

2,000
2,200
2,800
2,750
2,900
2,450
2.750
2,200
2,900

---- 1,000 Pounds ---

473,
194,
1,383,
56,
299,
233,
500
550,
250

24
176

220
880
545
680
585
580

175

460,000
165,000
1,792,000
63,250
435.000
262,150
39,875
627.000
266,800

l/ Estimates comprised

Crop Product
October 1994

jon

of quota and non-quota peanuts.

A-16

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA