May Weather Summary: Troublesome dryness developed or persisted in several
key agricultural areas, and wetness returned to Texas in

mid-May after several favorably dry weeks. May rainfall was less than

50 percent of normal in the Northwest, the northern and west-central Plains,

the western and central Corn Belt, and the Southeast. Above-normal rainfall

was confined to the Southwest, the southern Plains, and parts of the

Northeastern and Middle Atlantic States.

Although May's overall weather pattern was persistent, with warmth (a ridge)
in the Northwest and coolness (a trough) in the Southeast, day-to-day weather
was quite variable. The month was marked by three important cold outbreaks
and two mini-heatwaves. On the 5th and the 6th, sub-freezing cold dipped into
northern Iowa and northern Illinois. Frost was noted as far south as
Fayetteville, AR, which recorded 33°F. By the 8th, even Tallahassee, FL, slid
to a low of 38°F, while all-time May record lows were tied or set in
Jacksonville (45°F), Tampa (49°F), and West Palm Beach (51°F). Meanwhile, a
3-day heatwave pushed temperatures into the 90's in the northern Plains
between the 6th and the 8th. On the 20th and 21st, widespread freezing
temperatures covered the coastal lowlands of New Jersey and neighboring
States. Atlantic City, NJ, reported minima of 32°F and 28°F. Farther west,
90°F heat reappeared in the northern Plains on the 18th and spread to New
England by the 22nd. Pierre, SD, topped out at 102°F on the 19th, and Bangor,
ME, attained 96°F on the 22nd. The most serious cold outbreak of the month’
struck the Great Lakes States on the 25th and the west-central Plains on the
26th. A 32°F reading in Chicago, IL, was the latest freeze on record by

11 days (previously May 14, in 1895). Grand Rapids, MI, noted 31°F, and
Goodland, KS, shivered at 27°F.

The West had few days of below-normal temperatures during May. The consistent
warmth pushed monthly average temperatures to 10°F above normal in parts of
California, Oregon, and Nevada. It was the warmest May on record in numerous
locations, including Reno, NV (10.3°F above normal), Medford, OR (+8.8°F), and
Sacramento, CA (+7.5°F). Concomitant dryness resulted in continued stress on
crops and water supplies. Eugene, OR, tied a record for its warmest May, and
also had its driest May ever (0.14 inches of rain). Dryness also plagued a
broad area from the northern Plains to Florida. Moline and Chicago, IL, both
received less than a third of an inch of rain to set driest-May records. In
contrast, thunderstorms peppered the Southwest throughout the month, and Texas
after mid-month. Rainfall records fell in several locations, including
Flagstaff, AZ (4.14 inches, five times normal), and Midland, TX (7.63 inches).
More than 1 foot of rain drenched Victoria, TX. But farther east, it was the
driest May on record in New Orleans, LA (0.95 inches), and Miami Beach, FL
(0.15 inches}.

May Fieldwork: Dry weather across much of the Nation during early May allowed
spring planting to progress rapidly. High temperatures in the
Western States promoted rapid crop development, while cooler temperatures in
the East slowed seed germination and crop growth. Persistent dry weather
through most of the month dried soils and began to stress crops in the
Northwest, Rocky Mountains, Great Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and
Southeast. Parts of Arizona, Texas, and southern New Mexico, however,
experienced hail and flood damage to some crops, and prolonged rainfall and
thunderstorm activity were common. Sharply colder weather from Canada delved
into the northern Great Plains toward the end of the month and temperatures

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-3 NASS, USDA


Sugarcane: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, Production,
Price, and Value by State and United States, 1990-91

: Area Harvested Yield 1/ : Production 1/
State poten ncn c ann nn nnn nnn nn nn nn nnn nn nnn nn nnn nnn enn nnn nnn nnn
: 1990 1991 2/ 1990 =: 1991 2/ 1990 =: 1991 2/
-- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ----- ---1,000 Tons --
For Sugar
FL : 419.0 428.0 35.5 34.9 14,874 14,937
HI > 72.0 67.4 90.8 86.9 6,538 5,857
LA : 201.0 321.0 20.6 22.1 4,150 7,090
TX 2 34.4 33.2 26.5 32.4 913 1,076
US : 726.4 849.6 36.4 34.1 26,475 28,960
For Seed:
FL : 15.0 15.0 35.5 34.9 §33 524
HI i 7.0 6.6 26.4 31.2 185 206
LA : 44.0 24.0 20.6 22.1 906 530
TMX : 1.8 1.7 20.6 20.0 37 34
US : 67.8 47.3 24.5 27.4 1,661 1,294
For Sugar :
and Seed:
FL : 434.0 443.0 35.5 34.9 15,407 15,461
HI : 79.0 74.0 85.1 81.9 6,723 6,063
LA > 245.0 345.0 20.6 22.1 5,056 7,620
TX >: 36.2 34.9 26.2 31.8 950 1,110
9 35.4 33.7 28,136 30,254

us > 794.2 896.

1990 1991 4,

--- Dollars ---
FL : 31.50 468,531 485,321
HI : 32.70 213,793 219,842
LA : 26.60 110,390 134,490
TX : 25.10 22,916 23,845
US : 30.70 815,630 863,498

1/ Yield and production refer to net weight. 2/ Revised. 3/ Price per ton
of cane for sugarcane used in evaluating value of production for seed.

4/ Estimates are not available. U.S. Marketing year average price, value of
production, and parity price will be published in "Agricultural Prices,"
released July 31, 1992. State estimates will be published in "Crop Values" to
be released January 1993. -

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 A-14 NASS, USDA


Tart Cherries: Production in Colorado, Oregon, and Utah is forecast at
39.5 million pounds, 13 percent more than a year ago and
65 percent more than 1990.

This year's Colorado crop is in good condition. Bloom was about 10 days
earlier than normal and the season has been frost free. Some light hail
damage occurred, but it is not expected to affect production.

Crop conditions are near normal throughout Oregon's Willamette Valley. Mild
winter and spring weather means harvesting is expected to begin early.

Utah growers expect a good crop despite some hail damage. Fruit drop is
almost complete. Harvest is expected to begin 2-3 weeks early.

Spring Potatoes: Production of spring potatoes is forecast at 23.2 million
cwt, up 12 percent from last year but 4 percent below the
1990 crop. Area for harvest is estimated at 85,000 acres, down 3 percent from
a year ago and 11 percent below two years ago. The average yield, at 273 cwt
per acre, is the second highest on record for a spring potato crop. The
average yield per acre jumped 37 cwt from last year and is 19 cwt above 1990.

Expected yields across the Southeast are well above last year and in Florida
growers expect a record high average. Hastings area growers are into their
Jast weeks of harvest and should wind up by mid-June. Quality and yields are
excellent throughout the State. Digging in Alabama progressed steadily in
spite of dry soil. Potatoes in North Carolina are in excellent condition with
harvest to start soon.

In Texas, repeated heavy rains damaged potatoes and led to poor yields.
Harvest progress is stow. Arizona potatoes escaped rain damage from storms
that hit other areas in the State. California harvest began in late April,
about a week ahead of normal. May temperatures were 5 to 6 degrees above
normal in Kern County. Red potatoes have good quality, but whites were
affected by insect damage.

Peaches: The first peach forecast for 1992 is 2.53 billion pounds, 5 percent
less than 1991 but 13 percent more than 1990. Production of the
peach crop, excluding California's Clingstone crop which is mostly canned, is
forecast at 1.43 billion pounds, down 13 percent from 1991 but 17 percent more
than 1990. Production of California Clingstone peaches is expected to total
1.10 billion pounds, up 7 percent from last year and up 9 percent from 1990.

California's Freestone crop is 20 percent picked as the warm spring temper-
atures advanced maturity. The Clingstone crop is maturing about 2 weeks ahead
of normal.

A warm January and February caused South Carolina's crop to bloom earlier than
normal. Production potential was reduced by several freezes which occurred in
March and April.

Frost and freezing temperatures reduced production potential in Georgia. Dry
weather during May caused some fruit to reach less than desirable size.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-7 NASS, USDA


Wheat: Production by Classes, United States
1990-91 and Forecasted June 1, 1992 1/

Winter Spring

Hard : Soft : : Hard : : Total
Red : Red : White : Red : Durum: White:

1,000 Bushels

1990 : 1,198,782 547,126 284,966 554,678 122,430 28,446 2,736,428
1991 : 901,346 325,201 145,635 431,223 103,957 73,342 1,980,704
1992 943,045 366,939 227,173

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the
previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season.

Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted June 1, 1992 1/

Area Harvested Production

State :

1991 1992 1991 : 1992
ST 000 Acres ~ 1,000 Bushels -
AZ : 39 39 95.0 95.0 90.0 3,705 3,510
CA : 32 55 105.0 95.0 95.0 3,360 5,225
MN : 30 32.0 960
MT : 179 33.0 5,907
ND : 2,850 31.0 88,350
SD : | 67 25.0 1,675
us : 3,197 32.5 103,957

l/ Harvested area for U.S. and northern States available in “Acreage”
released June 30, 1992. Yield and production for U.S. and northern States
will be published in "Crop Production” released July 9, 1992.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 A-5 NASS, USDA




averaged below normal in all regions except the West. Below-freezing
temperatures were recorded in the northern Great Plains and upper Great Lakes
at the end of the month, which may have stunted some early-developing crops.

Winter wheat condition for the 19 major producing States rated mostly good to
fair entering May, with heading nearly complete in California and Georgia, and
advancing in the southern Great Plains. Much of the acreage in the Midwest,
however, was in very poor to poor condition resulting from winterkill. Winter
wheat condition declined over the course of the month, as lack of soil
moisture diminished crop prospects in the Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and
Great Plains. Heading of the winter wheat crop progressed ahead of normal,
with 85% of the acreage in the 19 major States showing grain heads by May 31.
Heading was complete in the central Great Plains and beginning in the northern
Rocky Mountains. Army worm infestations were a problem in south-central and
southwestern Missouri and north-central and northwestern Arkansas.

Spring wheat seeding in the 5 major producing States was in full swing
entering May, and was completed by the end of the month. Condition ratings
for spring wheat were mostly good to fair, but drying soils were resulting in
lower ratings toward the end of the month.

Progress of corn planting was lagging in the Corn Belt at the beginning of May
due to late April rains, but surged with the arrival of dry weather during the
first half of the month. By May 17 planting was 91% complete in the 17 major
producing States, 19 percentage points ahead of last year and 10 points ahead
of the 5-year average. Crop condition ratings dropped sharply the last week
of May, as persistent dry weather in the central Corn Belt and frost in many
of the northern and central corn producing States resulted in much of the
acreage previously rated as good being lowered to fair.

Soybean planting got off to a fast start in May and reached 80% complete in
the 19 major producing States by May 31. This was 27 points ahead of last
year's planting progress, and 17 points ahead of the historic average.
Progress was well ahead of schedule in the upper and middle Mississippi Valley
and slightly ahead of schedule in the South.

Cotton planting was well along in the West at the beginning of May and active
in the East. Progress outpaced both last year and the average during the
month, reaching 83% complete by May 31. As of May 31, planting remained in
full swing, as weather permitted, in Oklahoma and Texas, but was complete, or
mostly complete, in the other major producing States. Some replanting was
undertaken due to rain and hail damage in southern and eastern Arizona and
southern New Mexico.

Grain sorghum planting was active throughout the month, with progress running
ahead of schedule despite heavy rains in the southern Plains. Planting was
66% complete in the 12 major States on May 31, compared with 53% last year and
the average of 55%.

Rice seeding, which was in full swing entering the month, was completed ahead
of schedule by the end of the month. Crop condition was mostly fair in
Arkansas and Mississippi, and mostly good in California, Louisiana, and Texas.
Cold weather along Texas' Upper Coast at the end of the month slowed crop
development, and water weevils were causing severe damage in southwestern
Louisiana.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-4 NASS, USDA


8 percent less than last season. The Texas crop forecast is also unchanged
from the last forecast at 65,000 boxes.

The change in U.S. grapefruit production between the June 1 forecast and final
production averaged 709,000 boxes over the last 10 seasons, ranging from a Tow
of 50,000 boxes in 1987-88 to a high of 1.45 million boxes in the 1986-87
season.

Tangerines: The U.S. all tangerine forecast of 222,000 tons is unchanged from

last month and 35 percent higher than the 1990-91 utilized
production. This forecast includes Dancy, Robinson, Honey, and Sunburst
varieties of tangerines in Florida, as well as production of California and
Arizona tangerines.

The Florida forecast is 2.60 million boxes, unchanged from May 1 and
33 percent above the 1990-91 production. Florida harvest is complete.
Arizona and California production forecasts were carried forward at
0.90 and 1.70 million boxes, respectively.

Tangelos: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-early citrus fruit, is
forecast at 2.60 million boxes, unchanged from May and 2 percent
Jess than last season's utilized production. Harvest is complete.

Temples: The forecast of Temple production in Florida, at 2.35 million boxes,
is down 2 percent from May 1 and down 6 percent from Tast season's
utilized production. Harvest is complete.

Florida Citrus: Groves in all areas of the citrus belt experienced warm, dry
weather during May. There were only a few days with rain.
Most growers and caretakers irrigated around the clock during the last
two weeks of the month. New growth has slowed due to the warm and dry
conditions. Most trees were shedding excessive fruit that could not be
carried through the fruit season. By the first of June, the natural shedding
was virtually complete. Caretakers were actively cutting cover crops, hedging
and topping harvested groves, and applying post-bloom sprays in all areas.

Valencia orange harvest was active in early May and tapered off to a low
volume by month's end as supplies were running low. Only a few large Valencia
orange blocks remained to be picked by June 1. Grapefruit harvest started in
May with low volume and by the end of the month only a few thousand boxes
remained to be picked.

California Fruit and Nuts: Record high temperatures in many areas have most

crops maturing one to two weeks ahead of last
year. Harvest began for cherries, desert table grapes, and early variety
apricots, nectarines, peaches, and plums. Kiwifruit, olives, pomegranates,
and persimmons started to bloom. Haas avocado harvest began. Lemon and
grapefruit harvest continued. Valencia harvest progressed statewide. Navel
harvest neared completion. Normal cultural practices such as spraying,
thinning, irrigating, and weed control were active during May.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-10 NASS, USDA


Durum Wheat: The 1992 durum wheat production is forecast at 3.51 million
bushels in Arizona and 5.23 million bushels in California. The
Arizona forecast is off 5 percent from May 1, while California's is unchanged.

Harvest reached 25 percent completion in Arizona as of May 31, 1992; storm
damage has lowered yield expectations. California's harvest was well underway
by June 1 and should finish later this month.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on

June 1, 1992, for the 48 contiguous States
was 80 percent, 7 points below June 1, 1991, but the same as the 1981-90
average for June 1. Conditions were above last year in 12 States, below last
year in 35 States, and the same as a year earlier in one State.

Of the 35 States showing a decline from last year, most had unusually good
conditions at this time in 1991. The current conditions tend to reflect
normal conditions for this time of year.

Maine, Montana, and Nevada reported conditions in the very poor range.
Idaho, Oregon, and West Virginia had averages close to the very poor range.

Excessive rainfall has kept pastures and ranges in the Southwest from Arizona
to the Mississippi River in the good to excellent range. Conditions in the
Corn Belt States vary considerably.

Sweet Cherries: Production in the six western States is forecast at
173,000 tons, 36 percent more than last year and 24 percent
above 1990.

The California harvest is nearing completion. This year's crop has excellent
quality and large size fruit.

Idaho's average full bloom date was March 26, 2 to 3 weeks ahead of normal.
Some frost damage was reported.

Montana's crop was favored by a mild winter and early spring. Bloom was good
and pollination weather nearly ideal. Total production potential is low,
however, because of the limited number of bearing trees. Only about
one-third of the trees survived the 1989 killing winter weather, and surviving
trees are still weak or damaged. An early harvest is expected, perhaps
starting by duly 6.

All of Oregon's producing areas report good conditions. A record warm winter
and warmer than normal spring weather was good for all fruit crops. Harvest
should run about 10 days ahead of normal. The earliest picking had already
begun by the end of the first week in June. -

Utah producers expect a good crop. Growers in the northern area, who were hit
hard by freeze damage last year, are optimistic this year. Fruit is turning
in some localities. Harvest should begin in Tate June.

Washington growers expect to start the primary harvest the first week of June,
although a few early varieties were picked two weeks ago. Even with a full
crop, the fruit are of exceptional size and quality.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-6 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS, AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

y oy June 6, 1992 om
fa ! Ex IVE) ¥ . ‘“
J " §
oN - }
wy) 3
XE oY “ABNORMALLY
Co VERELY- ~ RYN eo wv,
¥. Ve my) 4
7 aw all
1
iy No
o7 XK /
y, suamy AvoRenLY a)
most _
\ orm
FAVORADL) cont
wos i my
ABNORMALLY:
worst T. v
he woman
Sar Sot

NOM/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY seed onptmier HSH

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-1 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit: Utilized Production by Crop, State,
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted June 1, 1992 1/

Utilized Production : Utilized Production
Crop : Boxes : Ton Equivalent
and Pecrr rte es cre renner enon nnn nnn nnn nnn nn nnn n nnn een n oe
State : 1989-90 : 1990-91 : 1991-92

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/ :
AZ 4/ : 390 550 740 14 20 28
CA : 44,300 15,800 35,000 1,661 593 1,313
FL : 68,100 87,500 83,400 3,064 3,937 3,753
TX 5/ : 1,050 20 44 1
US : 113,840 103,850 119,160 4,783 4,550 5,095
Valencia :
AZ 4/ : 1,220 1,200 1,600 45 45 60
CA : 27,100 9,800 31,000 1,016 368 1,163
FL : 42,100 64,000 56,500 1,894 2,880 2,543
TX 5/ 6/ : 155 10 7
mts : 70,575 75,000 89,110 2,962 3,293 3,766
AZ 4/ : _1,610 1,750 2,340 59 65 88
CA : 71,400 25,600 66,000 2,677 961 2,476
FL : 110,200 151,500 139,900 4,958 6,817 6,296
TX 5/ : 1,205 30 51 1
US : 184,415 178,850 208,270 7,745 7,843 8,861
Temples :
FL 1,400 2,500 2,350 63 113 106
Grapefruit
White Seedless :
FL : 18,000 21,700 19,100 765 922 812
Colored Seedless  :
16,300 21,800 22,100 693 926 939
Other :
mit : 1,400 1,600 1,200 60 68 51
AZ 4/ : 2,200 2,400 2,200 70 17 70
CA 4/ :
Desert : 3,500 3,500 3,500 112 112 112
Other Areas : 5,900 4,500 6,000 198 150 201
Total : 9,400 8,000 9,500 310 262 313
FL : 35,700 45,100 42,400 1,518 1,916 1,802
1X 5/ : 2,000 65 80 3
US : 49,300 55,500 54,165 1,978 2,255 2,188
Tangerines :
AZ 4 : 600 600 900 22 23 34
CA 4/ : 1,650 1,300 1,700 62 49 64
FL : 1,700 1,950 2,600 80 92 124
US : 3,950 3,850 5,200 164 164 222
Lemons 4/ :
AL : 2,800 4,100 5,100 106 156 194
CA : 15,800 14,900 14,500 600 566 551
Us : 18,600 19,000 19,600 706 722 745
Tangelos :
FL 2,950 2,650 2,600 132 119 117
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1992 A-10 NASS, USDA


Report Features

This report contains maple syrup estimates for the first time under a new
maple syrup estimating program. This reestablishes the maple syrup estimating
program to a level comparable to the program prior to 1982. Maple syrup
production and value estimates will be published twice yearly in the "Crop
Production" publication beginning with the June 10, 1992, and the November 10,
1992, reports. Maple syrup disposition estimates will also be included in the
November "Crop Production" report.

The next "Crop Production" report will be released on July 9, 1992, at
3:00 p.m. ET.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Martin Owens, Rice, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-2157
Vaughn Siegenthaler, Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068
Charles Van Lahr, Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369
Dan Kerestes, Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-9526
Herb Eldridge, Sugar, Tobacco, Hay (202) 720-3843

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Steve Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Jim Brewster, Fruits, Fresh Vegetables (202) 720-7688
Arvin Budge, Potatoes, Dry Beans, Processing Vegetables (202) 720-4285
Kirby Cavett, Peanuts (202) 720-8843
Kevin Hintzman, Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 720-5412
Roger Latham, Cotton (202) 720-5944

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1992 B-16 NASS, USDA



Reliability of June 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
between May 22 and June 3 to gather information on
expected yield as of June 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in
15 States that accounted for 85 percent of the 1991 production. Farm
operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek
permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat
fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's
maturity. In early fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in late
boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads
that would be harvested. A 5-year historical head weight is used until the
crop matures to the point that fertile spikelets are visible and can be
counted. The count of fertile spikelets is then used to forecast head weight
until the crop has matured and final head weights are obtained. The number of
heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot can then be expanded to
an estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is
subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until
the crop reaches maturity and or harvested on the final visit. After the crop
has been harvested, grain not harvested is gleaned from sample plots to obtain
actual harvest Toss.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 10,000 winter
wheat producers representing all major production areas. These producers were
selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable
winter wheat yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed
throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the
season progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported yields were reviewed for reasonableness and
consistency with historical estimates. The data were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and
previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses
the survey forecasts and the State analysis to prepare the published June 1
forecasts.

Revision Policy: The June 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead,

a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end
of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks,
production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then
made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant
changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1
winter wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error,"
a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by
expressing the deviation between the June 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1972-1991 20-year period; the square root of the
average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-13 NASS, USDA


Cherries: Total Production by Type, State,
and Total, 1990-91 and Forecasted June 1, 1992

Total Production

1992 2/

800 4,000
50,000 87,000
127,200 173,000

Million Pounds

Tart
co 1.0 1.6 1.5
OR : 75 75 3.0
UT : 15.5 26.0 30.0
Total : 24.0 35.1 39.5

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold: Sweet Cherries
(tons), 1990 - 24,380, 1991 - 8,150, Tart Cherries (million pounds),

1990 - 5.9, 1991 - 0.2. 2/ Release date of the first forecast for the Great
Lakes States (NY, PA, and MI) for Sweet and Tart varieties, plus WI for Tart
varieties, is June 25, 1992. 3/ No commercial production due to frost in MT
for 1991.

Spring Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
1990-91 and Forecasted June 1

AL 2.5 3.5 120 155 855 300 543
AZ 6.0 6.1 295 295 1,794 1,770 1,800
CA 21.8 19.3 380 390 8,438 8,284 7,527
FL :

Hastings : 27.0 27.0 190 280 6,888 5,130 7,560

Other > 8.4 7.0 175 250 1,826 1,470 1,750
NC : 17.0 17.3 170 190 3,240 2,890 3,287
TX 4.8 4.8 165 155 1,122 792 744
US : 87.5 85.0 236 273 24,163 20,636 23,211

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1992 A-7 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed:
1991-92 and Average 1/

Condition by State and United States,

State : Average
: 1981-90

1991

1992

- State :

1992

AL
AZ
AR
CA
co
CT
DE
FL
GA
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT

75
73
84
80
78
89
87
61
68
84
86
87
83
85
88
79
91
89
92
84
82
80
83
77

Percent

98
85
89
66
79
96
75
88
94
89
97
98
98
84
100
76
90
80
96
95
98
84
99
91
92

Average 1991
: 1981-90
Percent
81 75
91 95
90 90
69 64
88 91
83 94
71 77
87 88
84 77
85 80
89 82
92 95
68 94
75 100
86 89
70 79
81 82
91 96
88 82
83 85
86 88
84 89
84 99
80 87

52
78
91
95
89
90
80
86
94
67
85
72
75
72
81
90
82
76
84
73
67
77
78

80

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Crop Production

June 1992

A-6

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY

WD (LONG TERM, PALMER)
He May 30, 1992 Next Chart June 16, 1992 }ooenste
MODERATES lp
nN >) t
SEVERE,
> EXTREME Hy 4/—> ‘ JOIST sf
EXTREMES <F
VERE, He ‘ Len 7
MODERATE: K oat
& 7 NT BEE.
EXTREME: ay SEVERE / te, Ly re
eee UN r s N Z ral Lat
7 eT VW 7 , \O; Z
SEVERE \ y 1 ~ »)
4 7
\ > ‘scvent
? C C
MODERATE \f x
MOIST ‘7 ’ 1
\— 7
g
a
MoIsyy D

WNOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY — sovedon protiminory raporrs

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Vses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-2 NASS, USDA


Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop, State,
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted June 1, 1992

Total Production

Crop and State

1990 1991 1992
Tons
Plums :
CA : 223,000 218,000 250,000
Prunes (Dried Basis) 1/ :
CA : 147,000 187,000 200,000
Apricots 2/ :
CA : 115,000 90,000 105,000
UT : 250 100 650
WA : 7,200 5,700 4,900
us : 122,450 95,800 110,550
Nectarines 1/ :
232,000 215,000 230,000
1,000 Pounds
Almonds (Shelled Basis) :
CA : 660,000 490,000 570,000

1/ Revised for 1991.
2/ Apricots - includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):
U.S., 1990-2,010; 1991-4,010.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, Hawaii, by Month, 1991-92

Area Fresh Production

Harvested

-- 1,000 Pounds --

Apr : 3,435 3,875 1,905 2,180 3,890 3,925
May : 3,310 3,890 1,925 2,200 3,350 4,500
Jun > 3,415 1,880 2,895

Jul : 3,405 1,950 3,290

Aug : 3,675 2,080 3,205

Sep : 3,840 2,095 4,460

Cumulative Fresh Productio' Jan-May 18,425 22,440
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1992 A-9 NASS, USDA


Much of the South and the Ohio River Valley suffered frost damage this year
which lowered production expectations. Freeze damage was minimal in the north
Atlantic Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Pacific Coast States.

Plums: California's crop is forecast at 250,000 tons, up 15 percent from last
year and 12 percent more than 1990. Maturity is about a week ahead of
normal.

Dried Prunes: Production in California is forecast at 200,000 tons, up

7 percent from a year ago and 36 percent more than 1990. The
crop is clean and relatively free of defects. Fruit are sizing wel] and
maturity is about a week ahead of normal. Harvest is expected to begin in
early August.

Apricots: The first forecast for the 1992 U.S. apricot crop is 110,550 tons,
up 15 percent from last year's production but down 10 percent from
the 1990 crop.

California production is forecast at 105,000 tons, up 17 percent from 1991.
Harvest of California apricots continues with warm weather quickening the
ripening process. Early concerns about small fruit have eased as sizes have
improved.

The Utah crop, forecast at 650 tons, is up sharply over last year's freeze
damaged crop of only 100 tons. This season trees are heavy with fruit. Smal]
sizes are the major concern.

Washington apricot production is forecast at 4,900 tons, down 14 percent from
last year. The crop enjoyed an early bloom, but unfavorable weather during
pollination reduced the crop volume. Fruit sizes are expected to be good.

Nectarines: The initial forecast for California's nectarine crop is
230,000 tons, up 7 percent from last season. Harvest has been

active due to warm weather and rapidly maturing fruit. Approximately

8 percent of the crop has been picked to date.

Almonds: The June 1 forecast for the 1992 California almond crop is

570 million pounds, shelled basis. This production remains
unchanged from last month and is 16 percent higher than last year's crop of
490 million pounds. The crop is progressing well with maturity about
two weeks ahead of last year.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.50 million pounds

for May, 15 percent higher than April and 34 percent higher than a
year ago. Year-to-date fresh sales were 22 percent higher than the same
five-month period of 1991.

Weather conditions were a mix of showers and sunny skies during May. A band
of showers dropped appreciable amounts of rain in the first week. Warm and

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-8 NASS, USDA



Crop ON Agrcatora

Statistics

Production Service

United States

Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released June 10, 1992, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts refer
to June 1, 1992.

Winter Wheat Down 5 Percent

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.54 billion bushels, down 5 percent
from the May 1 forecast but 12 percent more than the 199] crop. Fewer acres
for grain coupled with lower yields have caused the decline from last month.
Yields are now expected to average 35.9 bushels per acre, 1.4 bushels less than
the May forecast.

Peach production for 1992, including California's Clingstone crop, is forecast
at 2.53 billion pounds, 5 percent less than 1991 but 13 percent more than 1990.
The California Clingstone crop of 1.10 billion pounds is up 7 percent from last
year and up 9 percent from 1990. All other production is forecast at

1.43 billion pounds, down 13 percent from 1991] but 17 percent more than 1990.
Much of the South and the Ohio River Valley suffered frost damage which lowered
production expectations. Freeze damage was limited in the north Atlantic
Coast, Rocky Mountain, and Pacific Coast States.

Sweet cherry production in the six western States is forecast at 173,000 tons,
36 percent more than last year and 24 percent above 1990. Increased potential
in Oregon and Washington offset the decline in California.

Maple syrup production in the U.S. in 1992 totaled 1.63 million gallons. The
crop is valued at $37.3 million. Vermont leads all States with production
totaling 570,000 gallons.

Spring potato production is forecast at 23.2 million cwt, up 12 percent from
last year but 4 percent below 1990. The June 1 forecast is 5 percent above the
May 1 projection on the strength of higher than expected yields in Arizona and
Florida.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
information call (202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (6-92)


Hops: Area Harvested, by Variety, State, and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted June 1, 1992

and
Variety 1992
Acres

ID :
Aquila : 103 103 103
Banner : 107 145 162
Chinook : 292 465 464
Cluster : 560 734 627
Eroica : 317 243 *
Galena : 528 517 512
Other Varieties : 793 1,911 2,145
Total : 2,700 4,118 4,013

OR :
Fuggles : 608 487 570
Galena : 99 99 100
Mt Hood : 47 47 90
Nugget : 1,393 1,695 2,300
Perle : 134 177 285
Tettnang : 618 577 575
Willamette : 3,859 3,590 3,600
Other Varieties : 342 518 380
Total : 7,100 7,190 7,900

WA :
Aquila : 348 346 344
Banner : 361 366 363
Cascade : 1,270 1,240 1,261
Chinook : 1,454 2,112 2,179
Cluster : 6,054 6,230 6,452
Eroica : 439 398 373
Galena : 6,161 7,628 8,356
Mt Hood : 513 820 1,429
Nugget : 2,827 2,955 3,606
Olympic : 280 337 291
Perle : 798 758 725
Tettnang : 2,362 2,254 2,127
Willamette : 2,604 2,583 2,627
Other Varieties : 192 218 233
Total : 25,663 28,245 30,366

US :

* Included in other varieties to avoid disclosure of individual operations.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 A-12 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes
The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.
Net Ibs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ~75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA Desert &
AZ-64, CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos and Temples-90;
tangerines-CA and AZ-~75, FL-95.

Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Due to the severe freeze of December 1989, TX had no commercial production
for the 1990-91 season.

TX forecast at 425 tons for 1991-92.

Bartlett Pears: Total Production by State and Total,
1990-91 and Forecasted June 1, 1992

Total Production

1991 1/

State

314,000 300,000 315,000
83,000 70,000 75,000

WA : 177,000 160,000 160,000

Total : 574,000 530,000 550,000

/

Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
dune 1992 A-11 NASS, USDA


Index
Page

Table Narrative
AlMondS........ cee cece cee eee eter ete n rent e eet eee tie A- 9 B- 8
Apricots... 0... cece ec cece cence eee tenet ee eeeeas A- 9 B- 8
Beet PUT... cece cece tcc cece ete nee e teen eens A-15
Cherries... 0... cece cece cece cee cece e eee ee eee e tence ene A- 7 B- 6
Citrus Fruit... cece eee eee eee eee e ees A-10 B- 9
Crop Moisture Maps............ cece cece cece cece e ence e eens B- 1
Crop Summary... ..... cece cece cece eee ete renee tee eet A- 2

A-12 B-11

A-17 B-12

A-15

A- 9 B- 8
PaPAYaS.. cece cece eee eee ee eee tenes ee eeeee A- 9 B- 8
Pasture & Range Feed Condition................. eee eee ee A- 6 B- 6
PeacheS... 0... cece cece cece e teen teen eee tenet eneeneeas A- 8 B- 7
Pears, Bartlett.........0... ccc cece cee ce eee eee eet eeeee A-11 B-11
PIUMS. 02. cece e cence teen eee e renee en een eetns A- 9 B- 8
Potatoes, Spring........... cece cece eee cence eee e rene eetee A- 7 B- 7
Prunes, Dried. ....... ce cece cece e erence treet eee eentes A- 9 B- 8
Reliability Statement............. 0c cece cece eee eee eeee B-13
SUGAT. cece cece cee tenet etree teeta ete ete eetes A-15 B-11
Sugarbeets.. 0.0... 0. cece cece eee cee eee e eee sete eetes A-13
Sugarcane... 6... ccc cece ce eee cece eee eee cents A-14
Sweetpotatoes... 0... . cee cece cree e eee e enter eene tees A-16 B-11
Wheat, DY Class... .. cece cece cece eect eee eee eeenteee A- 5
Wheat, Durum........... 6... cece cece eee cece e eet eet eeae A- 5 B- 6
Wheat, Winter A- 4 B- 5
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-15 NASS, USDA


relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 winter wheat production forecast
is 5.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
production forecast of 1.54 billion bushels will not be above or below the
final estimate by more than 5.5 percent or approximately 84.5 million bushels.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will
not exceed 9.5 percent or approximately 146 million bushels. Differences
between the June 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate
during the past 10 years have averaged 58 million bushels, ranging from

8 million to 105 million bushels. The June 1 forecast has been below the
final estimate 3 times and above 7 times. This does not imply that the June 1
winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-14 NASS, USDA



Peaches: Total Production by Crop, State and United States,
1, 1992

1990-91 and Forecasted June

AL
AR
CA
co
CT
DE
GA
ID
IL
IN
KS
KY
LA
MD
MA
MI
MO
NJ
NY
NC
OH
OK
OR
PA
Sc
TN
TX
UT
VA
WA
WV

To
CA-C
US

Million Pounds

12.0 16.0 13.0

: 18.0 12.0 11.0

- Freestone: 600.0 610.0 640.0
: 17.0 2.0 17.0

3.6 3.4 3.5

0.2 3.0 3.0

130.0 150.0 130.0

2/ 4.7 2.5
0.3 19.5 16.0

0.8 4.6 3.0

0.1 5.0 0.5

2/ 4.0 4.0
4.0 5.0 3.5

4.0 15.0 10.0

2.0 2.0 2.0

45.0 40.0 45.0

0.7 11.0 6.0

45.0 115.0 95.0

14.0 15.0 13.5

10.0 35.0 12.0

5.5 5.8 7.0

8.0 31.0 5.3

14.5 13.0 15.0

76.0 100.0 80.0

110.0 310.0 150.0

1.3 6.5 2.7

24.0 32.0 27.0

12.0 2.5 11.0

2.5 26.0 25.0

53.0 30.0 55.0

3.0 18.0 17.0

tal Above : 1,221.2 1,642.3 1,425.5
lingstone 3/: 1,012.0 1,030.0 1,100.0
Total : 2,233.2 2,672.3 2,525.5

not sold (million pounds):

Crop
June

Includes unharvested production and harvested
U.S., excluding CA Clingstone peaches, 1990 -
No significant production due to frost for KY

diversions (million pounds):

Production
1992 A-8

1990-57.0; 1991-

36.6, 199] - 120.5.

for 1990 and ID for 1991.
CA Clingstone is over the scale tonnage and includes culls and cannery

60.0.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Production is forecast at 1.54 billion bushels as of June 1,
1992. This is down 5 percent from the May 1 forecast but
12 percent more than the 1991 crop. A reduction in estimated acres to be
harvested, coupled with lower yields from last month, caused the decline.
Area for grain is now 42.9 million acres; Colorado, Kansas, Montana, and
Nebraska account for the reduction. This acreage level is off 1 percent from
May 1 but up 9 percent from last year. Yields are now expected to average
35.9 bushels per acre, 1.4 bushels less than the May forecast but 1.1 bushels
per acre more than the 1991 average.

As of May 31, 1992, heading was occurring in all major producing States.
Drought has reduced yields in the Pacific Northwest; cool temperatures and
short soil moisture have hindered development of Michigan's wheat.

Low head counts have pointed to yield reductions in the principal Soft Red
Winter States, except Arkansas, where yield prospects improved from May 1.

Drought and/or frost damage have led to lower yields in Colorado, Kansas,
Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Harvest activity has been delayed by
rain in Oklahoma and Texas.

U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION
1983-1992

BILLION BUSHELS

2.50
199 2:06 2.03
2.00 1.83 N
152 167 156 1.54
1.50 1.46 1.37
1.00
0.60

10
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-5 NASS, USDA


Bartlett Pears: Production in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast
at 550,000 tons, up 4 percent from last year but down

4 percent from 1990. California growers expect a good quality crop. Above

average temperatures have enhanced maturity and size. Bloom two to

three weeks early in Washington, followed by a number of cool nights has

caused frost markings on fruit. A heavy drop from poor pollination was also

reported, but overall, conditions are good.

Hops: Acreage strung for harvest is forecast at 42,279 acres, a 7 percent

increase from last year and 19 percent more than 1990. An unusually
warm and dry winter and spring in Washington provided the opportunity for
several potential problems for hop growers. An undesirable early bloom, the
possibility of irrigation water shortage in Jate summer, and a large
over-wintered red mite population are concerning producers. Even with these
early season concerns, the crop at this point in time appears to be
progressing satisfactorily.

Sugar Crops - 1991 Revised: Production of sugarbeets in 1991 totaled

28.1 million tons, 2 percent above the
1990 output. The larger production was the result of both increased acreage
and higher average yields. Area harvested totaled 1.39 million acres,
1 percent more than in 1990. Yield per acre averaged 20.2 tons per acre
compared with the previous year's average of 20.0 tons.

Sugarcane produced for sugar in 1991, nearly totaled 29.0 million tons, .

9 percent more than in 1990. A large increase in Louisiana more than offset
the decline in Hawaii's production, which was affected by wet weather. The
average yield of 34.1 tons per acre compares with 36.4 a year earlier. The
area harvested totaled 849,600 thousand acres, 17 percent above the previous

year. /

Total sugar production of 7.16 million tons of raw value from the 1991
sugarcane and sugarbeet crops was up 2 percent from a year earlier. Beet
sugar made up 52 percent of total production.

Sugar from the 1991 sugarcane crop totaled 3.43 million tons of raw value, up
9 percent from a year earlier. Increases in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas
more than offset the decline in Hawaii. Yield of sugar per ton of cane
averaged 237 pounds compared with 238 pounds a year ago.

Sugarbeets sliced from the 1991 crop totaled 27.1 million tons, up 2 percent
from 1990. Sugar (raw value) produced from the crop totaled 3.73 million
tons, a drop of 3 percent from the previous year. Average recovery of sugar
per ton of beets harvested was down 14 pounds from the previous year.

Sweetpotatoes, 1991 Revised: The final estimate of sweetpotato production for
199] is 11.2 million cwt, 11 percent below

1990 and 1 percent below 1989. The revised total placed production 3 percent

under the preliminary estimate made last December. Harvest came from

77,800 acres, 13 percent fewer than the number harvested a year earlier and

10 percent below two years before. The average yield was 144 cwt per acre, up

3 cwt from 1990 and 12 cwt above two years earlier.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-11 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted June 1, 1992

- 1,000 Acres -

-- 1,000 Bushels ---

AL 110 95 25.0 40.0 40.0 2,750 3,800
AZ 1 29 44 100.0 98.0 98.0 2,900 4,312
AR : 930 900 22.0 37.0 40.0 20, 460 36,000
cA > 410 560 80.0 80.0 80.0 32,800 44,800
co : 2,300 2,300 31.0 30.0 27.0 71,300 62,100
DE l/s: 67 70 53.0 42.0 42.0 3,551 23940
FL O/: 25 40 23.0 36.0 36.0 575 1,440
GA 1 425 325 33.0 38.0 41.0 14,025 13,325
ID : _ 700 800 70.0 70.0 65.0 49,000 52,000
IL 2 1,400 1,100 32.0 49.0 42.0 44,300 46,200
IN : 720 550 40.0 44.0 41.0 28,800 22,550
IA If: 50 55 34.0 45.0 45.0 1,700 23475
KS : 11,000 10,900 33.0 33.0 32.0 363,000 348,800
KY > "400 420 27.0 47.0 47.0 10,800 19,740
LA 1/: 190 160 20.0 32.0 32.0 3,800 5,120
MD 1/: 195 215 50.0 48.0 48.0 95750 10,320
MI : 560 610 43.0 50.0 45.0 24,080 27,450
MN o1/ 55 45 36.0 33.0 33.0 1,980 1,485
MS 250 260 =:18.0 38.0 38.0 4,500 9,880
MO 1,500 1,350 32.0 40.0 38.0 48,000 51,300
MT 1,800 2,000 40.0 31.0 26.0 72,000 52,000
NE 2;100 1,950 32.0 31.0 29.0 67,200 56,550
NW oOL/ 4 5 90.0 90.0 90.0 360 450
NO o/: 26 30 46.0 48.0 48.0 1,196 1,440
NM o1/: 320 320 25.0 28.0 28.0 8,000 8,960
NY Ty: 110 110 49.0 48.0 48.0 5,390 55280
NC : 480 470 40.0 41.0 41.0 19,200 19,270
ND L/: 90 185 33.0 33.0 33.0 2,970 6,105
OH : 1,080 1,115 49.0 49.0 47.0 52,920 52,405
OK 5,000 6,100 28.0 30.0 30.0 140,000 183,000
OR 800 835 52.0 56.0 51.0 41,600 42,585
PA 1/ 175 175 44.0 48.0 48.0 7,700 8,400
SC 275 270 = 31.0 39.0 40.0 85525 10,800
sD 1,300 1,400 35.0 30.0 25.0 45,500 35,000
TN 320 310 24.0 40.0 40.0 7,680 12,400
TX 2,800 4,000 30.0 32.0 32.0 84,000 128,000
UT o1/ 130 115 36.0 43.0 43.0 4,680 4,945
VA 1/ 250 260 49.0 50.0 50.0 12,250 13,000
WA 700 2,100 58.0 60.0 57.0 40,600 119,700
wo 10 12 45.0 45.0 45.0 450 540
wi 1/ 120 120. 49.0 43.0 43.0 5,880 5,160
wo 190 190 29.0 27.0 27.0 5,510 5,130
US 42,871 34.8 37.3 35.9 1,372,182 1,537,157

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 A-4 NASS, USDA


Sugar, Raw and Refined: Production and Yield, by Crop,
State, and United States, 1990-91

Sugar, Raw Value : Sugar
Peer coos seen ono -- $= === === === === : Production
: Yield per Ton 3 Refined
State : Production : of Cane or Beets : Basis

- 1,000 Tons - --- Pounds ~-- - 1,000 Tons ~
Cane Sugar

FL : 1,806 1,833 243 246 1,688 1,713

HI : 820 724 251 247 766 677

LA : 438 762 211 215 409 712

TX : 88 111 193 207 82 104

US : 3,152 3,430 238 237 2,945 3,206
Beet Sugar :

US 3,842 3,729 279 265 3,591 3,485
Cane and Beet Sugar : 6,994 7,159 6,536 6,691
1/ Revised.

Molasses and Beet Pulp: Production by Product, State
and United States, 1990-91
Product and State : Unit

Sugarcane Products
Blackstrap Molasses-80° brix as: :
FL Gallon: 104,131 101,441

HI 3/ : Gallon : 38,980 35,960
LA : Gallon : 27,100 42,485
TX : Gallon : 8,062 7,743
US : Gallon : 178,273 187,629
Edible Molasses : :
LA : Gallon : 1,405 1,825
US : Gallon : 1,405 1,825
Sugarbeet Products - US : :
Molasses : Gallon : 178,179 198,715
Pulp : :
Molasses : Ton : 1,178 1,143
Dried : Ton : 588 441
Wet : Ton : 34 197

1/ Sugarcane products revised.
2/ Includes high test molasses from frozen cane.
3/ 85° Brix.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 A-15 NASS, USDA


Maple Syrup: Production and Value,
by State and United States, 1991-1992

Production Value of Production
State 9 :~-~+-~------------------------------ 2-9-2 55-555 - eee eee === ==

1991 1992 1991 1992

--- 1,000 Gallons --- ---- 1,000 Dollars ----
CT 1/ 4 12 425
ME : 112 153 1,870 2,433
MA : 44 50 1,483 1,535
MI 1/ : 85 2,395
MN 1/ : 12 341
NH : 81 94 2,657 2,726
NY : 308 400 7,176 8,916
OH 1/ : 55 1,394
PA 1/ : 95 2,341
VT : 440 570 11,440 12,540
WI d/ : 100 2,300
US 1,626 37,346

1/ Estimates began with the 1992 season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Winter Wheat
Spring Potatoes

Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1991 and Forecasted June 1, 1992
(Metric Units)

Area Harvested

1991 1992 1991 1992
Hectares
20,659,020 20,358,340 15,943,170 17,349,460
36,500 35,530 35,410 34,400

Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1991 and Forecasted June 1, 1992
(Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare: Production
Crop May 1, Jun 1,
1991 1992 1991 1992 1992
Metric Tons
Winter Wheat : 2.34 2.54 37,344,670 44,035,210 41,834,560
Spring Potatoes : 26.43 29.19 936,030 1,004,300 1,052,830
Peaches 1,212,130 1,145,550
Apricots 86,910 100,330
Nectarines (CA) 195,040 208,650
Plums (CA) 197,770 226,800
Dried Prunes (CA) 169,640 181,440
Almonds (CA) 222,260 258,550 258,550
Citrus Fruits 1/ 1990-91 1991-92 1991-92
Oranges 7,115,050 8,017,700 8,038,560
Grapefruit 2,045,700 1,984,920 1,984,920
1/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1981-90

average is 80 percent.

2/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production
June 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board
A-3 NASS, USDA


dry weather with sporadic showers prevailed during the rest of the month.
Area devoted to papaya production is estimated at 3,890 acres in May,
relatively unchanged from April, but 18 percent higher than a year ago.
Harvested area, totaling 2,200 acres, was 1 percent higher than April and
14 percent higher than May 1991.

Oranges: The U.S. June 1 all orange production forecast is 8.86 million tons
for the 1991-92 season, up slightly from the May 1 forecast and

13 percent more than the 1990-91 season. The Florida all orange forecast is

140 million boxes, up slightly from May 1 but down 8 percent from last

season's crop. Production of early and mid-season oranges this season in

Florida is 83.4 million boxes. Harvest is complete. The Florida Valencia

forecast, at 56.5 million boxes, is up 1 percent from May 1 but down

12 percent from last season's utilized production. Harvest is 96 percent

complete.

The California Navel forecast remains unchanged at 35.0 million boxes,

122 percent higher than last year's freeze damaged crop. Harvest is

96 percent complete. Califernia's Valencia forecast is also unchanged at
31.0 million boxes. This season's crop is more than three times the size of
last year's freeze damaged crop.

The all orange forecast for Arizona, which was carried forward from the
April 1 forecast, is 2.34 million boxes, 34 percent higher than last season's
production. The Texas all orange crop is expected to be 30,000 boxes.
Harvest is complete.

Changes in U.S. orange production between the June 1 forecast and final
production averaged 2.30 million boxes over the past ten seasons. The range
is from a low of 210,000 boxes in 1989-90 to a high of 4.66 million boxes
during the 1981-82 season.

Florida Frozen Concentrated Juice Yield: The 1991-92 forecast of the Frozen
Concentrated Orange Juice Yield

(FCOJ) for Florida is 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast

projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors

Association. The final 1990-91 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was

1.45 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

Grapefruit: The June 1 U.S. grapefruit forecast is 2.19 million tons,

unchanged from May 1 but down 3 percent from last season. The
Florida all grapefruit forecast, at 42.4 million boxes, is unchanged from last
month and down 6 percent from last year. Harvest is virtually complete.

The California "Desert Valley" grapefruit forecast, which was carried forward
from April 1, is unchanged from the 1990-91 level at 3.50 million boxes.
California's "Other Areas" grapefruit forecast, carried forward from the
April 1 forecast, is 6.00 million boxes, up 33 percent from last season's
crop.

Arizona's forecast, carried forward from April 1, is 2.20 million boxes,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-9 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1991 and Forecasted June 1, 1992
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

Crop [eeeene eon - +n 2-2-2288 + - 8-8 = === === 2 += ===
1991 1992 1991 1992
: 1,000 Acres
Winter Wheat > $1,049 50,306 39,396 42,871
Spring Potatoes : 90.2 87.8 87.5 85.0

Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1991 and Forecasted June 1, 1992
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production

Winter Wheat Bu: 34.8 35.9 1,372,182 1,618,017 1,537,157

Spring Potatoes Cwt : 236 273 20,636 22,141 23,211
Pasture and :
Range Feed 1/ Pet : 87 80
Peaches Lb: 2,672,300 2,525,500
Apricots Ton : 95.8 110.6
Nectarines (CA) "oy 215.0 230.0
Plums (CA) "oy 218.0 250.0
Oried Prunes (CA) "oy 187.0 200.0
Almonds (CA) lb : 490,000 570,000 570,000
Citrus Fruits 2/ : 1990-91 1991-92 1991-92
Oranges Ton : 7,843 8,838 8,861
Grapefruit "oy 2,255 2,188 2,188

1/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1981-90
average is 80 percent.

2/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

This report was approved on June 10, 1992, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural

Statistics Board.

Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Ann Veneman Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

June 1992 A-2 NASS, USDA


ral Want to subscribe? raf Time to renew?

Subscribe to Crep Production today! |f you already subscribe to this timely periodical, note that
your subscription expires in the month and year shown on the top line of your mailing label. The
expiration date will appear in one of two formats: APR9Q3 (for April 1993) or 930430 (for April 30,
1993). Disregard this notice if no renewal date appears. Call 1-800-999-6779, and tell us whether
you want to subscribe or renew, or return this form to: ERS-NASS, P.O. Box 1608, Rockville, MD
20849-1608,

Crop Production 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years

Q Yes! | want to start my subscription. Domestic © $36.00 O $71.00 QO $106.00
Q Yes! | want to renew my subscription. Foreign O 345.00 O 388.75 O $13250
New subscribers: Renewals:

Name:

Address:

- : ATTACH MAILING LABEL HERE
City, State, Zip:

Daytime phone: ( )

Payment method:

Q Billme. Use purchase orders, checks drawn on U.S. banks.
cashier's checks, or international money orders. Make
Q Enclosed is $ payable to ERS-NASS.

Credit card orders: © MasterCard C Visa _ Total charges $.

cnatewsnomoer (TTT TITEL LL) evenenee (J

MontvYear

For fastest service, call our toll-free order desk 1-800-999-6779,
in the U.S. and Canada; other areas please call 301-725-7937

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-17 NASS, USDA


Maple Syrup: The 1992 maple syrup production in the U.S. totaled 1.63 million

gallons. The crop is valued at $37.3 million. The U.S.
estimate covers 1] States while previously only four New England States and
New York were included.

Sap collectors enjoyed an excellent season in most syrup producing areas.
Favorable weather conditions resulted in a 30 percent production increase from
Jast year in Vermont, a 30 percent increase in New York, and a 37 percent
increase in Maine. The sweetness of the sap also improved from last year in
New England as it took 40 gallons of sap to make a gallon of syrup compared
with 44 gallons last year.

New York produced its largest crop since 1966. A mild winter, combined with
an unusually late spring, provided producers with an extra week to collect and
boil sap. Yield per tap was the highest in the past 25 years. Sap sweetness
was near normal at 41 gallons of sap to produce one gallon of syrup.

Warm weather during the middle of the sap run reduced production in
Pennsylvania, Ohio, and southern Michigan. Wisconsin and northern Michigan
producers enjoyed good conditions and increased volume. Weather conditions
caused the season to start and stop several times during the spring in most of
these areas.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 B-12 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, Production,
Price, and Value by State and United States, 1990-91 1/

Area : Area :
Planted : Harvested : Yield

--- 1,000 Acres ----
CA: (173.

0 165.0 168.0 159.0 25.8 24.7
co : 40.8 40.7 40.0 40.2 23.6 24.0
ID : 188.0 196.0 186.0 195.0 26.0 26.0
MI : 160.0 171.0 157.0 166.0 20.8 15.5
MN : 368.0 369.0 364.0 363.0 14.8 17.0
MT : 55.2 56.6 55.1 56.3 22.5 23.3
NE 3 75.1 81.9 71.0 78.6 21.0 20.0
ND 7 193.9 195.0 193.2 193.9 14.4 18.4
OH 20.0 20.3 19.2 18.5 18.5 16.0
QR 17.2 18.9 16.7 18.6 29.2 28.2
1X 3 41.9 41.7 41.0 30.5 24.8 22.0
wy H 65.0 69.0 63.8 66.4 20.5 20.6
Oth 3/: 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 29.5 35.0
US : 1,400.4 1,427.4 1,377.2 1,388.2 20.0 20.2

--- 1,000 Tons --- ---- Dollars ---- --- 1,000 Dollars ---
CA : 4,334 3,927 41.60 180,294
co : 944 965 39.80 37,571
ID: 4,836 5,070 41.70 201,661
MI : 3,266 2,573 38.30 125,088
MN : 5,387 6,171 49.00 263,963
MT : 1,240 1,312 43.20 53,568
NE : 1,491 1,572 40.10 59,789
ND : 2,782 3,568 48.30 134,371
OH: 355 296 5/
OR : 488 525 37.80
1X : 1,017 671 37.20
WY : 1,308 1,365 40.50

Oth 5/: 65 1 39.70
: 0

28,092 43.01

l/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA. 2/ Revised. 3/ Includes NM and WA. 4/ Estimates are not
available. U.S. marketing year average price, value of production, and parity
price will be published in "Agricultural Prices," released July 31, 1992.
State estimates will be published in "Crop Values" to be released January 1993.
5/ Production data relates to NM and WA. Price and value of production data
for OH are included to avoid disclosure of factory data.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
June 1992 A-13 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Total Sliced, United States, 1988-91 1/

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted

beets in CA.

Sweetpotatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield,

and Production, by State and

Area Planted

State peeee eee ee nee

United States, 1990-91

Area Harvested

1990 1991 1/ 1990 1991 1
1,000 Acres

AL 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.7
CA 8.3 8.2 8,3 8.2
GA 5.0 4.0 4.5 3.8
LA 22.0 17.0 21.0 16.0
MD : 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.3
MS : 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.5
NJ : 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.9
NC 36.0 31.0 34.0 30.0
sc 3.5 3.1 3.4 2.9
1X 6.8 5.8 6.2 5.5
VA 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
US 8
AL 120 145 588 682
CA 175 185 1,453 1,517
GA 130 155 585 589
LA 160 150 3,360 2,400
MD 140 120 84 36
MS 120 140 420 490
NJ 130 120 273 228
NC 145 135 4,930 4,050
sc 110 95 374 276
TX 60 140 372 770
VA 155 165 155 165
US 141 144 12,594 11,203
1/ Revised.

Crop Production
June 1992 A-16

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA