Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1994~95
and Forecasted October 1, 1996

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint~seed ratio.

U.S. All Cotton Production

1987 - 1996
Million Bales

22

20 |-- we . . . 19.66

18
16 |.

14

12}.

10

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
Year

Crop Production Agricultural statistics Board
October 1996 A-20 NASS, USDA


Despite general coolness across the U.S., few individual airmasses warranted
attention. On September 14, frost dotted the upper Midwest, as lows dipped to
daily-record levels in locations such as St. Cloud, MN (31 degrees F), Webster
City, IA (34 degrees F), and Springfield, IL (37 degrees F). Toward month's
end, cold air drilled southward through the Plains, delivering a freeze as far
south as eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Snowfall reached 4.2 inches at
both Colorado Springs, CO and Lander, WY. On September 27, lows of 8 degrees F
in Laramie, WY, 31 degrees F in McCook, NE, and 35 degrees F in Amarillo, TX
were among about a dozen daily records. The weather system responsible for the
late-month chill also produced very heavy rain from the Plains to the East
Coast, adding to moisture surpluses in many areas, but boosting soil moisture in
the upper Midwest. The system also cooled southern Florida, where Miami Beach
logged eight daily-record highs from September 2-22. In Ft. Myers, FL,
September-record highs of 97 degrees F were attained on September 3 and 7.
Farther west, a strong cold front crossed the Northwest on September 4-5, ending
a heat wave and reducing the wildfire threat. On September 3, the high soared
to 96 degrees F in Salt Lake City, UT; a day later, Sheridan, WY notched

99 degrees F. But by September 6, lows fell to daily-record levels in Elko, NV
(23 degrees F) and Pocatello, ID (29 degrees F).

Cold and often stormy weather gripped Alaska during the last 3 weeks of
September. Monthly temperatures averaged 1 to 3 degrees F below normal and
precipitation was above normal across the south and the northwest. Fairbanks’
monthly snowfall of 7.1 inches was their seventh highest September total. On
September 25, 3.35 inches of rain--associated with the remnants of Typhoon Tom
and accompanied by wind gusts to 60 mph--lashed Juneau, their wettest September
day and second-wettest all-time, behind 4.62 inches on October 10, 1946.
Juneau's monthly total reached 10.28 inches, 153 percent of normal. Meanwhile,
warm, drier-than-normal weather prevailed across Hawaii.

General Crop Comments: Hurricane Fran arrived in early September and brought
heavy rains and high winds that caused flooding and
damaged crops in the mid-Atlantic. Row crops in the Midwest started the month
stressed, and some fields were yellowed by chronically dry soil conditions.
Rains in early September in the Midwest and Great Lakes region reduced row crop
stress from dry soils and very warm weather. September started with crop
development about 2 weeks behind normal in the eastern Corn Belt. Harvest
activity in the Southeast was delayed by scattered showers, but the benefits
from the precipitation outweighed the slowdown in harvest activity. The month
started with short soil moisture supplies in the middle Mississippi Valley.
Crop development in the central Great Plains was accelerated by above-normal
temperatures, but many fields started the month 1 to 2 weeks behind the average.
In the southern Great Plains, cool weather slowed crop maturity while wet fields
and heavy rains slowed fieldwork. Dry soil conditions in early September slowed
winter wheat seeding in the West and parts of the Dakotas. Many producers were
waiting for rain and lower temperatures to reduce insect activity. Some
producers harvested early-planted corn in the Tennessee Valley, but had to dry
grain to acceptable moisture levels prior to sale.

A mid-month cold front brought rain to the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern
States, further delaying harvest and planting activities. The remnants of
Hurricane Fran brought rain across the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast,
which brought relief to crops in dry soils. On September 14, light, scattered
frost occurred in low-lying areas of eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and
northern Iowa, reminding producers that the end of the growing season was near.
In the Corn Belt, scattered rains provided moisture for soybeans filling pods,
but warmer weather was needed to promote crop development. Chilly autumn
weather later in the month slowed crop development in the Central States. Rainy
weather over most of the Nation provided moisture for recently planted small

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-4 NASS, USDA


Corn: Ears per Acre

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
surveys in 7 States during 1996. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts
and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey
and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are
intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre
Selected States, 1992-96 1/

1992

ry
DB
a

1993 1994 : 1995 : 1996

Number of Ears

IL oct : 23,000 22,600 22,650 22,900 23,700
Nov : 23,000 22,600 22,600 22,850

IN oct : 22,900 22,400 22,150 23,000 22,750
Nov : 22,700 22,200 22,150 22,950

IA oct : 24,000 22,700 24,050 24,050 24,350
Nov : 24,000 22,500 24,000 24,000
MI 2/ Oct : 25,800 22,500 22,850 22,650
Nov : 24,600 22,300 22,250 22,500

MN oct : 27,100 23,700 26,950 25,750 26, 400
Nov : 27,000 24,900 26,950 25,700
MO 2/ Oct : 19,400 18,500 19,300 19, 600
Nov : 19,400 18,500 19,250 19,450

NE oct : 22,200 21,300 21,200 21,800 22,600
Nov : 22,100 21,100 21,300 21,700

ou Oct : 23,400 21,700 22,400 22,650 22,300
Nov : 23,200 21,700 22,500 22,500
SD 2/ oct : 20,400 18, 400 21,300 20,400
Nov : 20,700 18,000 21,300 20,300

wi Oct : 23,800 22,600 24,600 23,600 24,250
23,300 23,100 24,650 23,250

1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ No longer included in the objective yield program beginning with 1996.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-37 NASS, USDA


end of the month. All of California's crop was in good to excellent condition in
early October, and harvest was 15 percent complete, 6 points ahead of the 5-year
average. Defoliation was active in the southern San Joaquin Valley at the end
of September, and harvest continued in Kern county. Producers had harvested
about one-half of the acreage in the Desert counties. October 1 cotton
objective yield counts show California large boll numbers as the lowest since
1986 and boli weights are the third lowest in the past 10 years.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina), the majority of the crop was in good to excellent condition on
October 6. Georgia showed 47 percent of the acreage as good to excellent, and
71 percent of South Carolina’s acreage was rated good to excellent. Hurricane
Fran entered North Carolina on September 5, flooding some acreage and
deteriorating the condition and yield prospects as it moved across the cotton
producing areas. In mid-September North Carolina cotton condition showed

32 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, but this improved to

70 percent on October 6. More storms followed Hurricane Fran during the month,
which slowed harvest, and on October 6, North Carolina producers had harvested
16 percent of the acreage, which equaled the 5-year average. These early
September storms slowed progress in Georgia, which was only 2 percent ahead of
the average harvest pace, at 20 percent. Alabama’s crop continued to develop
well, with little boll loss.

American-Pima production is forecast at 567,000 bales, down 7,000 bales from
September's forecast but up 54 percent from 1995's output. Yield is indicated
at 1,039 pounds per harvested acre, up 203 pounds from last year. California’s
boll development was excellent during the season, and progress of the crop
remains about one week ahead of normal. The unusually high temperatures of
August caused a slight decline in expected yields from last month's forecast.
Defoliation began in the southern San Joaquin Valley. In Texas, harvest began
in the Winter Garden area. The Trans~Pecos received some unseasonably cool
temperatures during the month, as the crop approached maturity.

All cotton ginnings totaled 2,143,850 running bales prior to October 1, compared
with 2,454,650 running bales ginned to the same date last year and
2,324,000 running bales in 1994.

All Hay: Production for 1996 is forecast at 152 million tons, up 2 percent from

the August 1 forecast but down 2 percent from 1995. The increase
from August is a result of a 2 percent increase in expected average yields to
2.51 tons per acre. All hay yields, however, are down 3 percent the previous
year. Acreage harvested, at 60.6 million acres, is unchanged from August 1 and
1 percent above last year. Of the major producing States, North Dakota showed
the largest decrease in production from a year ago, dropping 28 percent from
1995. The largest increase in production is in Arkansas, 32 percent above last
year.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Alfalfa hay production, at 80.7 million tons, is’

up fractionally from the August 1 forecast but
down 5 percent from the 1995 total. Area for harvest, at 24.3 million acres, is
down 1 percent from a year ago. Average yields are forecast at 3.33 tons per
acre, down 0.13 of a ton from the previous year. Dry conditions late in the
season reduced second and third cuttings yields in most areas across the
northern half of the U.S. In the southern portion of the U.S., however, mild
temperatures and ample precipitation during August and September resulted in
additional cuttings and helped boost yields. California is expected to seta
new State record for average yields at 7.4 tons per acre.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-9 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

Area Harvested Yield : Production

State

1995

-- 1,000 Acres -- --- 1,000 Cwt ---
AR : 1,340 1,240 5,450 5,600 5,900 73,020 73,160
cA z 465 518 7,600 7,900 7,800 35,352 40,404
LA : $70 530 4,600 $5,000 4,950 26,209 26,235
MS : 288 218 5,400 5,800 5,900 15,552 12,862
MO 1/ : 112 105 5,300 5,000 5,000 5,936 5,250
TX : 318 298 5,600 6,100 6,100 17,802 18,178
us 3,093 2,909 5,621 5,957 6,053 173,871 176,089

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

Year t Long Grain Medium Grain : Short Grain : All
1,000 cwt
1994 133,445 63,390 944 197,779
1995 121,730 $1,241 300 173,871
1996 1/ 115,844 59,043 1,202 176,089

1/ Indicated October 1, 1996 rice class estimates are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 A-14 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on
November 12, 1996.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

c. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526
Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202} 720-7621
Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice, Tobacco (202) 720-7688
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285
Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,

Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235

Linda McMillan - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 690-0270

Dave Mueller ~ Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157
Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,

Mushrooms, Hops (202) 690-0270

Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1996 B-19 NASS, USDA


Also shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 239 million bushels, ranging
from 5 million to 618 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts
10-year Record of
Differences Between Forecast
and Final Estimate

Level

Below: Above
?Final:Final

Corn for Grain Bu: 4.4 7.6 685 S 618 5 5
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 5.8 10.1 80 9 105 6 4
Rice cwt: 3.1 5.3 9 1 13 6 4
Soybeans for :

Beans Bu: 3.8 6.5 153 :: 49 2 103 5 5
Cotton Bales 1/: 4.3 7.5 1,364 :: 640 31 1,424 6 4
Dry Edible :

Beans cwt : 3.6 6.3 2 1.3 7 3

1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-17 NASS, USDA


expects 18.0 million pounds, 20 percent higher than the last forecast and

38 percent above the previous year. Timely rainfall in late August and
September pushed native trees to near full production. Harvest is just getting
started.

Arizona is unchanged at 18.0 million pounds. Favorable weather conditions
continued. Some growers reported controlling for aphids. Production in
Oklahoma is forecast at 8.00 million pounds, 20 percent below September and
58 percent lower than last year. Web worms and casebearers continue to be a
problem in many areas.

Hazelnuts: Production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 20,000 tons for

1996, unchanged from August’s forecast and 49 percent below 1995.
This is the lowest level since 1989's 13,000 tons. Oregon’s forecast remains
unchanged at 19,900 tons, nearly half of last year’s crop. Washington’s
production forecast, at 100 tons, is carried forward from the previous forecast.
Hazelnuts have been dropping for several weeks in western Oregon; however, most
orchardists have not started harvesting yet. Crop development is running behind
normal.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production was estimated at 2.74 million pounds
for September. This was 7 percent lower than August but 3 percent
higher than September 1995.

Weather conditions during September were mixed. Heavy showers during the first
half of the month kept soil moisture adequate. Light showers and sunshine were
the norms for the second half of September.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,960 acres, 3 percent higher than
last month and 6 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling
3,165 acres, was 13 percent more than August and 36 percent more than last
September.

California Fruits and Nuts: The raisin grape harvest made significant progress

throughout the month of September. By month's end,
raisins were in all stages of harvest from just laid, to dry, to being rolled
and binned. Table grape picking was active throughout the month, with Red
Globe, Flame Seedless, and Thompson Seedless the major varieties picked.
Harvest of grapes for wine use continued. Granny Smith and Fuji apples were
harvested. The almond harvest was in full swing by mid month, while the early
variety walnut harvest began during the first week of September. Prune and fig
harvests were active throughout the month.

California Citrus: Higher than normal temperatures speeded maturity of desert

area grapefruit. Reported defects included wind scar, flat
sides, and sunburn. Lemon grades in the Central Valley were good to excellent.
Fruit size in the south coast area was small with fair quality reported. Good
quality was reported in the desert area. Each area reported defects such as
wind scar, spotting, sunburn, and botrytis bumps. Picking of early season Navel
orange varieties was expected to begin in the Edison area of Kern County in
early October. The number of oranges per tree is significantly less than a year
ago, but the size of the fruit is very large. Navel oranges in other areas were
turning color and maturing well. Picking of the 1995-96 Valencia orange crop
was approximately 80 percent complete. Quality in the Central Valley was
reported good. In Southern California, quality was below average and fruit size
was small. The 1996-97 crop was maturing well.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-15 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996 1/

Area Harvested

State pocmecc cscs ccs rss
3 1995 :
- 1,000 Acres - Pounds ~-
CA 137.0 130.0 2,160 2,100 2,771 2,960 2,730
co : 165.0 135.0 1,550 1,600 3,140 2,558 2,160
ID Hy 108.0 93.0 2,000 2,100 2,691 2,160 1,953
KS 3 31.0 26.0 1,550 1,500 560 481 390
MI : 385.0 310.0 1,800 1,400 4,680 6,930 4,340
MN H 150.0 120.0 1,370 1,500 2,079 2,055 1,800
MT 2/ : 10.8 10.3 1,900 2,200 220 205 227
NE 205.0 190.0 1,750 1,850 3,572 3,588 3,515
NM 2/ 12.5 12.0 2,010 2,000 283 251 240
NY 33.0 29.5 1,630 1,600 585 538 472
ND 540.0 550.0 1,330 1,300 6,110 7,182 7,150
OR 2/ 10.0 10.1 2,080 1,980 197 208 200
TX 23.0 10.0 980 900 218 225 90
UT 2/ 2 7.0 0.6 460 600 24 32 4
WA 41.0 36.0 2,200 2,250 840 902 810
wWIo2/ 9.0 8.1 1,300 1,700 237 117 138
wy 32.0 35.0 2,000 2,200 821 640 770

1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed.
2/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-24 NASS, USDA


grains, but stalled row crop harvest activity. Producers in the northern Great
Plains waited for a killing freeze to help dry down row crops before harvest.
In the mid-Atlantic, surplus topsoil moisture levels prevented many producers
from entering their fields, and storms over the weekend caused some lodging.
Later in the month, heavy rains and thunderstorms in the southern Great Plains
provided good pre~planting moisture for small grains. In the Pacific
Northwest, soil crusting required some producers to reseed small grains. Rain
improved row crop condition near the end of September in the Central States.
Crop conditions declined in the Mid-Atlantic as a result of the excessive
moisture and crop damage from Hurricane Fran. Cool fall weather in the Midwest
and Southeast slowed crop development.

Wet weather at the close of September slowed row crop harvest activity and small
grain seeding over most of the eastern half of the Nation. Cold autumn weather
in the central Great Plains and below-freezing temperatures brought an end to
crop development. In the Midwest, corn had higher-than-normal moisture levels
for the end of September. Wet fields delayed harvest activity in the Southeast.
Heavy rains in the Dakotas brought fieldwork to a standstill at month’s end.
Wheat producers who waited for rain to increase soil moisture before planting in
the southern Great Plains were prevented from planting by wet fields. Row crop
development ended the month behind the average, but conditions were improved by
the rain. Rains at month’s end lowered cotton condition in the Southern States
due to damage to fields with open bolis.

Corn for Grain: Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.3 million
acres, unchanged from last month, but up 13 percent from 1995.
The October 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level ear count per
acre for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota,
Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The previous record final ears per acre was set
in 1992. As of September 23, 56 percent of the acreage in the 17 major States
was Mature. This compares with 82 percent for 1995 and 72 percent for the
five-year average. Nine percent of the corn had been harvested, compared to
15 percent last year and the five-year average of 17 percent. Corn rated in the
fair to good condition totaled 73 percent compared to 80 percent for a year ago.
However, corn rated in excellent condition was 18 percent compared to 8 percent
for last year. As of the beginning of October the majority of the Corn Belt
remained frost free with the exception of parts of Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan,
and South Dakota.

In Iowa, forecasted ear population is at a record high level. Three percent of
the corn was harvested as of September 29, compared to 8 percent in 1995 and the
average of 9 percent. Corn condition was 76 percent good to excellent.

Forecasted ear count in Illinois is at a'record high level. Six percent of the
corn was harvested, compared to 16 percent a year ago and the five-year average
of 21 percent. The majority (72 percent) of corn was rated in fair to good
condition.

Nebraska forecasted ear population is at a record high level. As of September
29, three percent of the corn was harvested, ahead of last year (two percent)
but behind the average of 12 percent. Corn was rated 88 percent good to
excellent condition.

Minnesota and Wisconsin ear populations are above 1995 and the five-year
average. Three percent of the corn was harvested in Minnesota, lagging behind
last year’s ten percent and the five-year average of five percent. In Wisconsin,
two percent of the corn was harvested compared to 11 percent in 1995 and the
average of six percent. In Minnesota, 84 percent of the corn was rated in fair
to good condition compared to 76 percent for Wisconsin.

Crop Production Agricultural statistics Board
October 1996 B-5 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

1995 and Forecasted October 1,
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre and Production,

United States,

Crop and Unit

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Rice 1/

Soybeans for Beans 2/Bu

Peanuts
Sunflower 2/
All Cotton 1/
Upland 1/
Amer-Pima 1/
Cottonseed
All Hay 3/
Alfalfa 3/
All Other 3/

Dry Edible Beans 1/3/Ccwt
Dry Edible Peas 1/2/ “

Austrian Winter
Peas 1/2/
Lentils 1/2/
All Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed

Apples, Comm'l 3/
Grapes 3/
Pecans

Hazelnuts 4/

1995

123.0 7,373,876
66.4 460,373

cwt : 5,621 6,053 173,871
: 35.3 37.0 2,176,814

Lb 2,282 2,421 3,461,475
“ 1,190 1,255 4,009,340
Bale 537 673 17,899.8
" 533 665 17,532.2
" 836 1,039 367.6
Ton 6,848.7
" 2.59 2.51 154,786
” 3.46 3.33 84,980
" 1.98 1.96 69,806
1,634 1,582 31,032

2,376 1,247 4,609

" : 1,545 1,411 119
" 1,389 969 2,145
Lb 1,913 2,069 1,268,494
Ton 19.8 19.8 28,026
" 33.0 31.4 30,796
10,736,000

5,936.3

268,000

39.0

1996
Production
sep 1, oct 1,
1996: 1996

8,803,928 9,012,148
763,973 796,783
171,494 176,089

2,269,505 2,346,220

3,362,650 3,414,975

3,368,530

17,900.14 18,189.1
17, 326.1 17, 622.1
574.0 567.0
6,846.4 6,965.4
148,515 151,840
80,382 80,747
68,133 71,093
27,512 26,989
2,282

103

1,221

1,580,549 1,525,140
26,399 26, 436
27,276 27,378
10,733,500 10,608,500
5,954.0 5,964.0
244,700 250,700
20.0 20.0

1/ Yield in pounds.
2/ 1995 revised.
3/

4/

published in "Hazelnut Production" released August 27,

Crop Production
October 1996

September 1 estimate carried forward from the August 1 forecast.
September 1 forecast carried forward from the mid-August forecast

1996.

Agricultural Statistics Board

B-5

NASS,

USDA


Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

: 1994 : 1995 1996

1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1/ 3

AL 3 2,000 7,000 10,000
AZ 2/ : 18,000
BR 3/ : 600 900 900
CA 3/ : 1,500 2,900 2,100
FL 3/ : 400 600 1,500
GA : 50,000 62,000 85,000
LA Hy 1,500 2,000 3,000
MS 3/ : 1,200 1,400
NM : 24,000 45,000 30,000
NC 3/ : 2,200 1,800 2,000
OK 2 1,300 2,500 1,600
sc 3/ 2 5,400 2,400 4,000
TX 3 30,000 47,000 35,000
us : 118,900 175,300 194,500
Native & Seedling :
AL : 2,000 3,000 5,000
AR 3/ : 900 700 500
FL 3/ : 1,500 500 1,000
GA : 15,000 13,000 15,000
KS 3/ : 3,600 500 400
LA : 9,500 11,000 15,000
MS 3/ : 1,000 1,100
NC 3/ : 2,800 1,500 800
OK : 10,700 16,500 6,400
sc 3/ : 3,600 1,100 1,000
TX : 10,000 28,000 10,000
us 3 59,600 76,800 56,200
All Pecans :

AL : 4,000 10,000 15,000
AZ 2/ 2 18,000
AR 3/ 3 1,500 1,600 1,400
CA 3/ 2 1,500 2,900 2,100
FL 3/ : 1,900 1,100 2,500
GA : 65,000 75,000 100,000
Ks 3/ : 3,600 500 400
LA : 11,000 13,000 18,000
Ms 3/ : 2,200 2,500
NM H 24,000 45,000 30,000
Nc 3/ : 5,000 3,300 2,800
OK : 12,000 19,000 8,000
sc 3/ : 9,000 3,500 5,000
TX : 40,000 75,000 45,000
Oth Sts 4/ 2 20,500 15,900

199,000 268,000 250,700

1/. Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.

2/ Estimates published separately beginning in 1996.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

4/ AZ, MS, MO, and TN in 1994. AZ, MO, and TN in 1995. No breakdown between
varieties available. Forecasts discontinued in 1996 for MO and TN.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-35 NASS, USDA


All Hay: Area Harvested, yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

1996

3 1,000 Acres --- Tons --- 2 =------ 1,000 Tons -------
AL : 720 730 2.10 2.30 1,971 1,512 1,679
RZ 3 195 135 7.14 7.59 1,326 1,392 1,480
AR : 1,050 1,150 1.92 2.31 2,505 2,011 2,651
cA 1,600 1,640 5.63 5.77 8,210 9,000 9,468
co 1,360 1,380 2.93 2.91 4,060 3,978 4,014
cT : 73 87 1.95 2.02 191 142 176
DE 2 il 15 2.82 A.27 61 31 64
FL 230 250 2.50 2.70 744 575 675
GA 600 600 2.50 2.80 1,950 1,500 1,680
ID : 1,400 1,280 3.63 3.48 4,438 5,080 4,448
IL : 1,050 1,000 3.43 3.11 3,175 3,598 3,105
IN : 720 675 3.33 3.00 2,110 2,400 2,025
IA > 1,700 1,550 3.33 3.41 5,775 5,665 5,280
KS : 2,600 2,700 2.52 2.66 5,925 6,555 7,170
KY > 2,400 2,350 2.41 2.35 5,400 5,790 5,530
LA : 310 310 2.40 2.70 812 744 837
ME : 225 198 1.86 4.51 405 419 298
MD : 205 220 2.69 3.55 668 552 780
MA : 100 102 1.92 2.09 213 192 213
MI : 1,350 1,300 3.72 3.22 4,865 5,025 4,190
MN 2 2,275 2,225 3.05 2.73 7,530 6,943 6,073
MS : 725 800 2.30 2.50 1,875 1,668 2,000
MO > 3,300 3,680 2.07 1.94 6,770 6,818 7,128
MT > 2,400 2,550 2.23 2.00 4,540 5,360 5,100
NE : 3,150 3,300 2.21 2.28 7,415 6,975 7,510
NV 3 490 490 3.07 3.22 1,400 1,505 1,578
NH 3 68 74 2.01 2.04 163 137 1521
NJ 3 130 120 2.19 _ 2.38 273 285 285
NM : 350 330 4.33 4.47 1,447 1,515 1,476
NY : 1,600 1,550 2.16 2.31 3,961 3,448 3,583
NC 3 530 540 2.43 2.26 1,187 1,286 1,223
ND > 2,700 2,400 1.89 4.53 4,510 5,095 3,660
OH : 1,250 1,150 3.23 3.00 4,384 4,035 3,455
OK : 2,200 2,500 1.90 1.94 4,198 4,174 4,840
OR : 1,100 1,070 3.00 3.09 2,840 3,300 3,305
PA > 1,910 1,900 2.31 2.41 4,528 4,409 4,570
RI : 7 8 2.00 2.00 18 14 16
sc : 300 280 2.40 2.30 650 720 644
sD : 4,300 4,500 2.10 1.93 7,330 9,050 8,700
IN > 1,750 1,795 2.24 2.03 3,795 3,920 3,635
TX > 3,760 4,150 2.16 2.08 8,455 8,136 8,615
UT : 695 708 3.80 3.72 2,525 2,644 2,625
vT : 300 330 1.86 1.99 648 559 656
VA > 1,250 1,250 2.06 2-41 2,342 2,571 3,018
WA : 760 780 4.31 3.91 2,785 3,278 3,046
wy : 560 570 1.89 1.99 1,110 1,056 1,135
Wr : 2,700 2,600 2.53 2.22 6,550 6,820 5,780
wy : 1,320 1,220 2.20 1.86 2,027 2,904 2,270
US : 59,779 60,599 2.59 2.51 150,060 154,786 151,840
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1996 R-21 NASS, USDA


Tobacco:

Area Harvested,

and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted October 1,

yield, and Production by State

1996

1,000 Acres --

cr 2 1,990
FL : 7,200
GA : 42,000
IN : 6,700
KY : 166,200
MD + 8,500
MA : 500
MO : 2,700
NC : 261,100
OH : 7,700
PA : 7,900
sc > 50,000
TN > 51,690
VA : 44,170
w : 2,000
WI : 2,760

663,110

2,100
7,300
46,000
7,600
205,900
8,000
710
2,900
283,300
8,300
7,800
50,000
56,550
46,170
2,000
2,550

737,180

- 1,000 Pounds -

1,666 2,682
2,597 16,575
2,300 80, 660
2,000 15,265
2,179 453, 687
1,500 12,750
1,594 792
2,200 8,015
1,929 599,853
1,750 18, 360
1,955 18,360
2,300 108,100
2,074 132,289
2,090 106, 092
1,850 3,550
1,871 5,866

3,524
17,676
84,000
13,601
328,581
11,475
892
5,468
484,599
15,015
15,685
105,000
92,907
81,269
2,600

6,202

2,069 1,582,896 1,268,494

3,498
18,960
105,800
15,200
448,630
12,000
1,132
6,380
546,500
14,525
15,247
115,000
117,309
96, 489
3,700
4,770

1,525,140

Crop Production
October 1996

Agricultural Statistics Board

B-27

NASS, USDA


All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

Area Harvested Yield Production
State :------------------------+---- wenn n-ne === = + = - 5 = +--+ = ===

: 1995 : 1996 : 1995: 1996

1,000 Acres 1,000 Tons

AL 1/ : 720 730 2.10 2.30 1,972 1,512 1,679
AZ 2/ : 30 20 3.50 4.00 126 105 80
AR. : 1,025 1,125 1.90 2.30 2,420 1,948 2,588
CA : 600 580 3.50 2.80 1,560 2,100 1,624
co : 510 520 1.80 1.60 784 918 832
cr 2/ : 58 70 1.90 2.00 121 110 140
DE 2/ : 7 8 2.30 3.80 35 16 30
FL 1/ : 230 250 2.50 2.70 744 575 675
GA l/ : 600 600 2.50 2.80 1,950 1,500 1,680
ID : 300 280 1.90 1.60 460 570 448
IL 3 430 330 2.60 2.10 900 1,118 693
IN : 400 300 2.80 2.50 780 1,120 750
TA 2 350 350 2.30 2.40 4,150 805 840
Ks : 1,750 1,850 1.90 1.90 2,805 3,325 3,515
KY : 2,100 2,050 2.20 2.20 4,290 4,620 4,510
LA 1/ : 310 310 2.40 2.70 812 744 837
ME 2/ : 210 185 1.85 1.50 370 389 278
MD 2/ : 150 160 2.10 3.00 392 315 480
MA 2/ : 80 85 1.80 2.00 148 144 170
MI : 300 300 2.40 2.30 770 720 690
MN : 850 750 2.30 2.00 1,610 1,955 1,500
MS 1/ : 725 800 2.30 2.50 1,875 1,668 2,000
MO : 2,850 3,200 1.95 1.80 5,510 5,558 5,760
MT : 800 850 1.70 1.60 975 1,360 1,360
NE : 1,800 1,900 1.25 1.30 2,375 2,250 2,470
NV 2/ : 250 250 1.70 1.80 368 425 450
NH 2/  : 55 60 2.00 2.00 123 110 120
No 2/ : 100 90 1.80 2.00 162 180 180
NM 2/ : 100 75 1.90 2.00 147 190 150
NY : 950 860 1.85 2.00 2,132 1,758 1,720
Nc : 510 525 2.40 2.25 1,127 1,224 1,181
ND : 1,300 1,100 1.55 1.20 1,755 2,015 1,320
OH : 550 450 2.50 2.70 1,612 1,375 1,215
OK : 1,820 2,100 1.50 1.60 3,008 2,730 3,360
OR : 650 610 2.10 2.10 1,200 1,365 1,281
PA : 1,130 1,130 1.90 2.00 2,128 2,147 2,260
RI 2/ : 5 5 2.00 1.90 13 10 10
sc l/ : 300 280 2.40 2.30 650 720 644
sD : 1,700 2,000 1.50 1.60 2,080 2,550 3,200
TN : 1,700 1,750 2.20 2.00 3,630 3,740 3,500
TX : 3,600 4,000 2.10 2.00 8,050 7,560 8,000
UT 2/ : 150 160 2.00 2.10 320 300 336
VE 2/ : 205 235 1.75 1.90 428 359 447
VA : 1,110 1,120 1.90 2.30 1,908 2,109 2,576
WA : 260 310 2.80 2.70 $76 728 837
w : 520 530 1.80 1.90 950 936 1,007
WI : 400 500 2.10 1.90 800 840 950
wy : 660 600 1.50 1.20 624 990 720
us 35,210 36,343 1.98 1.96 68,724 69,806 71,093

1/ Includes alfalfa hay.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 aR-23 NASS, USDA


Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

1995
Tons (In-shell Basis)

38,800 19,900

WA 1/ 2 100 200 100

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Area and Fresh Production, by Month,

Month Harvested

1995 3 1996

-- 1,000 Pounds

Aug : 3,770 3,835 2,335 2,805 3,505 2,940
2,330 3,165 2,670 2,740

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-36 NASS, USDA


Sunflower: Area Planted, by Varietal Type,
State, and United States, 1995

Varietal Type

1,000 Acres
co 65 50 115
KS 220 80 300
MN 360 80 440
NE 44 46 90
ND 1,250 200 1,450
sD 890 70 960
TX 2b 23 44
Oth Sts . 61 18 79
us 2,911 567 3,478

Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/

State

-- 1,000 Acres -~ --- 1,000 Pounds

AL : 212.0 209.0 483,360 480,700
FL : 81.0 78.0 193,590 187,200
GA : 592.0 533.0 2,390 2,550 2,550 1,414, 880 1,359,150
NM : 20.0 19.5 2,150 2,400 2,450 43,000 47,775
NC 144.0 126.0 2,410 2,700 2,600 347,040 327,600
OK 98.0 84.0 2,060 2,400 2,500 201,880 210,000
sc 11.0 10.0 2,800 2,600 2,600 30,800 26,000
Tx 270.0 275.0 2,000 2,000 2,050 540,000 563,750
VA : 89.0 76.0 2,325 2,800 2,800 206,925 212,800
us : 1,517.0 1,410.5 2,282 2,384 2,421 3,461,475 3,414,975
1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1996 A-18 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Area Planted and Harvested,

(Metric Units)

Area Planted

United States,

1995-96

Area Harvested

Oats
Barley
All Wheat
Winter
Durum
Other Spring
Rye
Flaxseed
Potatoes
Winter 2/
Spring
Summer
Fall
Total 2/
Sweetpotatoes
Hops
Ginger Root (HI)

2,564,120
2,106,970
27,977,030
19,702,740
1,390,510
6,883,780
648,310
66,770

5,380
35,730
29,340

495, 380

565,840
35,370

1,
2,
30,
21,
1,
8,

Hectares
886,260 1,198,690
903,250 2,541,050
610, 350 24,663,830
037,000 16,580,960
464,980 1,358,140
108,370 6,724,730
593,680 155,810
45,330 59,490
5,870 4,820
37,190 34,120
32,330 28,610
510, 400 487,730
585,790 555,280
36,180 33,830
17,480
50

1,087, 400
2,746, 630
25,434,770
16, 069,840
1, 435,030
7,929,900

140,430

42,900

5,870
36,100
30,880

503, 680
576,520
34,880
17,860

80

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

2/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production
October 1996

A-10

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS,

USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67,
FL-85, TX~80; lemons~76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;
tangerines-CA & AZ-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in Tx.

4/ California Navel estimate carried forward from September 1, 1996.

5/ California Desert and Other Area Grapefruit estimates combined to All
Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1996 A-33 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996 1/

-c- Tons ~--

CA : 115.0 94.0 28.0 28.0 3,948 3,220 2,632
co : 41.1 51.7 17.4 21.7 946 715 1,122
ID z 197.0 184.0 24.0 25.0 5,608 4,728 4,600
MI : 188.0 130.0 15.8 15.5 3,029 2,970 2,015
MN : 416.0 440.0 17.7 17.3 8,467 7,363 7,612
MT : 55.5 57.3 21.5 22.0 1,307 1,193 1,261
NE : 72.3 51.0 16.4 18.1 1,504 1,186 923
NM 2 9 26.7 24
ND : 204.2 222.0 19.2 17.3 4,272 3,929 3,831
OH : 15.3 4.2 15.0 16.9 264 230 7
OR : 17.8 16.3 22.9 25.5 456 408 416
TX : 19.3 13.1 18.2 22.0 497 351 288
WA 3 13.0 37.2 483
wy : 61.5 56.5 20.3 20.5 1,103 1,249 1,158
oth :

Sts 2/ : 14.1 34.3 452 484

US : 1,417.1 1,334.0 13.8 19.8 31,853 28,026 26,436

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA prior to 1996.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

1,000 Acres

1,000 Tons
FL : 437.0 440.0 34.6 34.0 14,937 15,122 14,960
HI : 53.0 43.0 76.8 78.0 5,364 4,070 3,354
LA : 400.0 350.0 25.6 23.0 9,272 10,240 8,050
TX i 42.3 39.0 32.2 26.0 1,356 1,364 1,034
us 932.3 872.0 33.0 31.4 30,929 30,796 27,378

1/ Net tons.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 A-30 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States, 1995-96
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production
Crop and Unit

: 1995 : 1996 1/ : 1995 : 1996 1/

Oats Bu: 54.7 57.8 162,027 155,225
Barley " 7 57.3 58.5 359,562 396,851
All Wheat " : 35.8 36.3 2,182,591 2,281,763

Winter woo: 37.7 37.2 1,544,653 1,478,048

Durum " 3 30.5 32.7 102,280 115,840

Other Spring woo 32.2 35.1 535,658 687,875
Rye noo: 26.1 26.0 10,064 9,016
Potatoes :

Winter 2/ cwt : 208 226 2,473 3,273

Spring " 3 240 238 20,193 21,197

Summer ad 3 254 250 17,931 19,095

Fall ” H 334 403,009

Total " : 323 443,606
Hops : 1,826 1,788 78,852.4 78,884.0
Ginger Root (HI) " : 43,000 47,000 5,800.0 9,400.0
Peaches woo: 2,301,300 1,993,400
Pears Ton : 948.3 783.4
Sweet Cherries " z 165.3 133.2
Tart Cherries Le oo: 395,600 247,900
Apricots Ton : 58.5 73.3
Olives (CA) " H 77.5 140.0
Dried Prunes (CA) " : 181.0 200.0
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) " : 23.0 19.0
Almonds (CA) 2 370,000 530,000
Walnuts (CA) 234.0 220.0

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
2/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 A-7 NASS, USDA

di me


Crop Summary:

Area Planted and Harvested,

(Domestic Units)

United States,

1995-96

Crop

Oats

Barley

All Wheat
Winter
Durum
Other Spring

Rye

Flaxseed

Potatoes
Winter
Spring
summer
Fall
Total 2/

Sweetpotatoes

Hops

2/

Area Planted

Area Harvested

1995 1996 1/ 1995 1996 1/
1,000 Acres

6, 336 4,661 2,962 2,687
6, 689 7,174 6,279 6,787
69,132 75,639 60,945 62,850
48,686 51,983 40,972 39,709
3,436 3,620 3,356 3,546
17,010 20,036 16,617 19,595
1,602 1,467 385 347
165 112 147 106
13.3 14.5 11.9 14.5
88.3 91.9 84.3 89.2
72.5 79.9 70.7 76.3
1,224.1 1,261.2 1,205.2 1,244.6
1,398.2 1,447.5 1,372.1 1,424.6
87.4 89.4 83.6 86.2
43.2 44.1
O.L 0.2

Ginger Root (HI)

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

2/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production
October 1996

R-6

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS,

USDA


Cotton

and United States,

Area Harvested

State

Upland
AL
AZ

1,
1,

FL 3/
1,
KS 3/
1,
MS 1,
MO

NC
OK
sc
TN
TX : 5,
VA 3/

us 15,

Amer-Pima

QP
N

: ou,
cA : 1,
FL 3/ :

1,
Ks 3/

1,
1,

Ks
GB

Sy

: Area Harvested,

578.0
364.0
110.0
165.0
109.0
490.0
2.6
075.0
420.0
453.0
56.0
800.0
315.0
342.0
660.0
750.0
106.0

795.6

48.1
115.0
15.0
33.0

211.1

578.0
412.1
110.0
280.0
109.0
490.0
2.6
075.0
420.0
453.0
71.0
800.0
315.0
342.0
660.0
783.0
106.0

1,000 Acres

556.0
324.0
990.0
995.0
100.0

1,375.0

1.7
940.0

1,030.0

405.0

54.0
720.0
240.0
265.0
520.0

4,100.0
102.0

12,717.7

39.9
165.0
17.0
40.0

261.9

556.0
363.9
990.0

1,160.0
100.0

1,375.0

1.7
940.0

1,030.0

405.0

71.0
720.0
240.0
265.0
520.0

4,140.0
102.0

16,006.7 12,979.6

Yield, and Production by Type,

1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

--- Pounds ---

1,

1,

409
046
635
953
472
625
185
614
622
544
609
479
183
528
527
372
620

533

720
937
605
756

836

409
008
635
951
472
625
185
614
622
544
608
479
187
528

1,

1,

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/  480-lb net weight bales.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production
October 1996

B-19

639
200
742
134
672
698
311
705
764
699
667
679
340
743
600
427
706

653
818
207
678
804

052

699
1,170
742
1,206
672
698
311
684
778
723
720
633
300
725
600
451
706

665
818
1,193
734
756

1,039

1,132
1,204

1,000 Bales 2/

492.0
793.0
1,468.0
2,312.0
107.2
1,941.0
1.0
1,375.0
1,841.0
513.0
721.0
798.0
123.0
376.0
724.0
4,460.0
137.0

17,532.2

72.2
224.5
18.9
52.0

367.6

492.0
865.2
1,468.0
2,536.5
107.2
1,941.0
1.0
1,375.0
1,841.0
513.0
89.9
798.0
123.0
376.0
724.0
4,512.0
137.0

17,899.8

State,

810.0
790.0
1,530.0
2,500.0
140.0
2,000.0
1.1
1,340.0
1,670.0
610.0
81.0
950.0
150.0
400.0
650.0
3,850.0
150.0

17, 622.1

68.0
410.0
26.0
63.0

567.0

810.0
858.0
1,530.0
2,910.0
140.0
2,000.0
lel
1,340.0
1,670.0
610.0
107.0
950.0
150.0
400.0
650.0
3,913.0
150.0

18,189.1

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare Production

1995 1996 1995 1996 1996

Metric Tons

Corn for Grain 2 7.12 7.72 187,305,080 223,630,070 228,919,100
Sorghum for Grain > 3.49 4.17 11,694,010 19,405,810 20,239,220
Rice > 6.30 6.78 7,886, 660 7,778,840 7,987,260
Soybeans for Beans 1/ : 2.38 2.49 59,243,170 61,765,800 63,853,640
Peanuts 2 2.56 2.71 1,570,100 1,525,270 1,549,010
Sunflower 1/ 2 1.33 1.41 1,818,610 1,527,940
All Cotton > 0.60 0.75 3,897,230 3,897,280 3,960,210
Upland > 0.60 0.75 3,817,190 3,772,310 3,836,760
Amer~Pima 2 0.94 1.16 80,040 124,970 123,450
Cottonseed : 6,213,040 6,210,950 6,318,900
All Hay 2/ : 5.80 5.62 140,419,500 134,730,540 137,746,930
Alfalfa 2/ 2 7.75 7.46 77,092,560 72,921,320 73,252,450
All Other 2/ 2 4.44 4.39 63,326,940 61,809,220 64,494, 480
Dry Edible Beans : 1.83 1.77 1,407,590 1,247,920 1,224,200
Dry Edible Peas 1/ 2 2.66 1.40 209,060 103,510
Austrian Winter 3
Peas 1/ 2 1.73 1.58 5,400 4,670
Lentils 1/ 7 621.56 1.09 97,300 55,380
All Tobacco : 2.14 2.32 575,380 716,930 691,790
Sugarbeets 44.33 44.42 25,424,760 23,948,770 23,982,340

Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed

74.05 70.38 27,937,660 24,744,370 24,836,900

Apples, Comm'l 2/ 2 4,869,770 4,868,630 4,811,930
Grapes 2/ : 5,385,320 5,401,380 5,410, 450
Pecans 3 121,560 110,990 113,720

Hazelnuts 3/ 35,380 18,140 18,140

1/ 1995 revised.

2/ September 1 estimate carried forward from the August 1 forecast.

3/ September 1 forecast carried forward from the mid-August forecast
published in “Hazelnut Production" released August 27, 1996.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-9 NASS, USDA

: /


Lentils: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1994-96 1/

Area Planted

Area Harvested

State 9000 paeae eee eee nent ne
oe 1,000 Acres
ID : 72.0 56.0 70.0 55.0
WA : 79.0 63.0 75.0 62.0
oth sts 2/ 9.4 9.0 9.4 9.0
us 154.4

Production 7

: 1,000 cwt -

ID : 935 1,015 440
Wa : 921 1,050 682
oth sts 2/ : 80 99
us : 1,856 2,145 1,221

1/ 1995 revised.
2/ Includes MT and ND; estimates initiated in 1995.

Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1994-96 1/ 2/

Area Planted

: 1,000 Acres

ID

WA

oth sts 3/

us

: Pounds

ID : 2,300

WA : 2,500

oth sts 3/ —: 1,800

us : 2,376

1/ Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas.
2/ 1995 revised.
3/ Includes MT, NV, ND, and OR; estimates initiated in 1995.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-25 NASS, USDA


Ny National

Crop Apical
e Service
Production
USDA

Washington, D.C.

Released October 11, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on “Crop Production” call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m.
to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics,
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information
Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The “Crop Production”
U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, Report 1150. See Page
B-20. Index and report features are located at the end of this report.
Forecasts refer to October 1, 1996.

Corn and Soybean Production Up

Corn production is forecast at 9.01 billion bushels, 2 percent above the
September 1 forecast and up 22 percent from 1995. Based on conditions as of
October 1, yields are expected to average 123.0 bushels per acre, up

2.8 bushels from last month and 9.5 bushels from 1995. Acreage harvested and to
be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.3 million acres, unchanged from last
month. Yield prospects increased in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and
Nebraska. Forecasted yield in Ohio remained unchanged, whereas in Wisconsin, it
decreased. .

Soybean production is forecast at 2.35 billion bushels as of October 1,

3 percent above the September 1 forecast and 8 percent above the revised 1995
production. The yield forecast is 37 bushels per acre, 1.2 bushels above
September 1 and up 1.7 bushels from the revised 1995 yield. Yield forecasts
increased in most of the major soybean producing states due to favorable growing
conditions during September.

RARER ERE REE

See page 15 for revised 1995 soybean acreage, yield, and production.

Cr Pr 2-2 (10-96)



Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1996 is forecast at 1.53 billion
pounds, down 4 percent from the September 1 estimate but 20 percent

more than 1995. The larger production outlook for 1996 is the result of

increased acreage and improved yields from a year ago. Harvested acreage,

estimated at 737,180 acres, is up slightly from September 1 and is 11 percent

above last year. Yields are expected to average 2,069 pounds per acre,

81 pounds below last month but 156 pounds above the average for 1995.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 843 million pounds, down 6 percent
from September 1 but 13 percent above last year’s output. Producers plan to
harvest 413,300 acres, up 7 percent from last year. Flue-cured tobacco accounts
for 56 percent of this year’s tobacco acreage.

North Carolina’s flue-cured crop was 95 percent harvested by October 1,
slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 92 percent. Nearly 80 percent of North
Carolina’s tobacco was harvested before Hurricane Fran smashed into the coastal
counties the first week in September. However, some poundage was damaged or
lost during the curing process as power was out for several days.

Burley production is expected to total 593 million pounds, virtually unchanged
from September 1 projections but 36 percent above the 1995 production. The
increase from a year ago is primarily the result of increased acreage, though
yields are also up. Yield is expected to average 2,101 pounds per acre,

238 pounds above the average for 1995. Acreage for harvest is up 20 percent
from last year.

Tobacco harvest in the Southeast neared completion, slightly behind schedule.
September weather was generally favorable across the region. The Kentucky
burley crop was 87 percent harvested compared with 91 percent average. Rains in
late September helped curing conditions. Harvest in Tennessee was 90 percent
complete and stripping is underway.

Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 26.4 million tons, a
decrease of 6 percent from 1995. Area for harvest, at 1.33 million

acres, is unchanged from the September "Crop Production" report but down

6 percent from last year. The average yield, at 19.8 tons per acre, is equal to

last year's yield and the September "Crop Production" report.

Plant development in the Great Lakes region was slowed by cool weather that
lasted during most of the summer and into autumn, leaving harvest activity

2 weeks behind normal. In the Mountain States hot, dry weather accelerated
crop development, but some producers delayed harvest to wait for lower
nighttime temperatures to increase sugar content. Dry weather in the Western
States helped control insect populations. Harvest began ahead of normal in the
upper Mississippi Valley and northern Great Plains, but rainy weather at the end
of September slowed harvest progress. Rainy weather, followed by below-normal
temperatures in the central High Plains, slowed the sugarbeet harvest at month's
end, but some fields were lifted early to allow the sugar mills to lengthen
their processing time. Prepile harvest activity was underway as September
closed in the central Great Plains.

Sugarcane: Sugarcane production for the U.S. sugar and seed in 1996 is expected
to total 27.4 million tons, down 11 percent from 1995 but up

fractionally from the September report. Area for harvest, at 872,000 acres, was

6 percent below last year. The forecasted yield, at 31.4 tons per acre, is

1.6 tons below last year's yield.

The effect of last winter’s freeze damage in Louisiana was not expected to lower
the amount of sugar per ton of cane, but fields with downed cane reduced

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-11 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

--- 1,000 Bushels --~

AL : 220 270 75.0 16,500 21,600
AZ 1/ : 22 35 170.0 175.0 175.0 3,740 6,125
AR 1/_: 85 190 115.0 95.0 95.0 9,775 18,050
cA 3 150 220 160.0 175.0 170.0 24,000 37,400
co / : 830 940 111.0 140.0 140.0 92,130 131,600
cT 2

DE : 139 150 105.0 125.0 130.0 14,595 19,500
FL 1/ : 60 100 90.0 80.0 80.0 5,400 8,000
GA 3 350 540 90.0 90.0 97.0 31,500 52,380
ID 1/ : 35 40 140.0 125.0 125.0 4,900 5,000
IL : 10,000 10,800 113.0 129.0 135.0 1,130,000 1,458,000
IN : 5,300 5,450 113.0 118.0 120.0 598,900 654,000
IA : 11,400 12,400 123.0 131.0 135.0 1,402,200 1,674,000
KS : 1,970 2,350 124.0 145.0 145.0 244,280 340,750
KY > 1,140 1,200 108.0 122.0 122.0 123,120 146,400
LA ey, : 221 535 105.0 110.0 110.0 23,205 58,850
ME :

MD : 400 465 105.0 120.0 126.0 42,000 58,590
MA 2/ :

MI > 2,170 2,350 115.0 94.0 94.0 243,550 220,900
MN > 6,150 7,000 119.0 115.0 117.0 731,850 819,000
MS 1/ : 275 610 95.0 93.0 93.0 26,125 56,730
MO : 1,470 2,600 102.0 122.0 128.0 149,940 332,800
MT 1/ : 16 20 120.0 130.0 130.0 1,920 2,600
NE / : 7,700 8,250 111.0 139.0 143.0 854,700 1,179,750
NH 2 :

NJ 1/ : 78 94 93.0 107.0 107.0 7,254 10,058
NM 1/ : 73 80 160.0 165.0 165.0 11,680 13,200
NY 3 610 700 105.0 111.0 111.0 64,050 77,700
NC : 700 930 107.9 96.0 88.0 74,900 81,840
ND : 510 700 79.0 80.0 84.0 40,290 58,800
OH : 3,100 2,750 121.9 108.0 108.0 375,100 297,000
OK 1/ : 130 180 125.0 105.0 105.0 16,250 18,900
OR 1/ : 21 28 160.0 180.0 180.0 3,360 5,040
PA / H 980 1,050 96.9 123.0 123.0 94,080 129,150
RI 2 :

sc z 265 380 91.9 75.0 75.0 24,115 28,500
sD : 2,450 3,650 79.0 84.0 90.0 193,550 328,500
TN : 540 680 118.0 110.0 113.0 63,720 76,840
TX : 1,900 1,800 114.0 95.0 95.0 216,600 171,000
UT 1/ : 20 22 100.0 135.0 135.0 2,000 2,970
VT 2/ :

VA i 275 300 2221.0 220.0 124.0 30,525 37,200
WA 1/ : 102 115 190.0 180.0 180.0 19,380 20,700
wy 1/ 3 40 40 100.0 100.0 100.0 4,000 4,000
wi : 3,050 3,200 114.0 109.0 107.0 347,700 342,400
wy 1/ : 48 55 104.0 115.0 115.0 4,992 6,325
US. 64,935 73,269 113.5 120.2 123.0 7,373,876 9,012,148

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-12 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Oats
Barley
All Wheat
Winter
Durum
Other Spring
Rye
Potatoes
Winter 2/
Spring
Summer
Fall
Total
Hops
Ginger Root (HI)
Peaches
Pears
Sweet Cherries
Tart Cherries
Apricots
Olives (CA)
Dried Prunes (CA)
Prunes and Plums
(Excl CA)
Almonds (CA)
Walnuts (CA)

Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States, 1995-96
(Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare

1.96
3.08
2.41
2.54
2.05
2.17
1.64

23.27
26.84
28.43
37.48
36.24

2.05
52.60

2.07
3.15
2.44
2.50
2.20
2.36

25.29
26.63
28.05

2.00
53.25

: 1995

Metric Tons

2,351,820
7,828,540
59,400, 400
42,038,570
2,783,610
14,578,220

255,640

112,170
915,940
813,340

18,280,180

20,121, 630

35,770
2,630
1,043, 850
860,240
149,910
179,440
53,070
70,310
164,200

20,870
167,830
212,280

Production

2,253,080
8,640,410
62,099,410
40,225,870
3,152,650
18,720,890

148,460
961,480
866,130

35,780
4,260
904,190
710,690
120,840
112,450
66,500
127,010
181,440

17,240
240,400
199,580

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

2/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production
October 1996

B-11

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA

r


Illinois lagged 14 points behind last year and 21 points below the five-year
average. Harvest was 15 points behind the average in Ohio and 17 points short
of 1995. Frost at the beginning of October, primarily in the Northern Corn Belt,
caused some damage to some late planted soybeans but aided in the drying down of
the soybeans in mature fields. As of September 29, soybeans were rated as

57 percent in good to excellent condition across the major producing states.

Pods per 18 square feet from the October Objective Yield Survey show pods below
the final 1995 pod count in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio. In
Indiana, the pod count is the lowest since 1991. Pod counts from the survey are
the highest on record in Missouri and Arkansas and the second highest on record
in Nebraska.

The forecasted yield in the non objective yield states is up 3.7 bushels from
1995. The forecasted yield is up 9 bushels in Kansas and Virginia from 1995.
In Louisiana, expected yield is up 8 bushels from last year. The non-objective
yield states account for about 25 percent of the U.S. soybean production.

Soybean Revisions- 1995: The 1995 soybean production was revised to

2.18 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from the
previous 1995 estimate. Planted and harvested acres remain unchanged from a
year ago. The yield resulting from the revised production is 35.3 bushels per
acre, an increase of 0.4 bushel from the previous estimate.

Revisions were made based upon an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock
estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and availability of
additional data in some States. This information was previously included in the
September “Grain Stocks” report released on September 30.

Sunflower: Production of all sunflower is forecast at 3.37 billion pounds,

16 percent below the 1995 production and 30 percent below production
in 1994. Growers expect to harvest 2.69 million acres, down 20 percent from
1995. Expected yield, at 1,255 pounds, is up 5 percent from last year.

Planting began well behind normal in North Dakota but was completed ahead of
last year as weather conditions improved. Crop development remained behind last
year but ahead of average. As of September 29, 74 percent of bracts had turned
brown and beyond. The crop was 2 percent harvested as of the week ending
September 29, compared to 7 percent last year and a 5-year average of 5 percent.
The first killing frost occurred at the beginning of October.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.41 billion pounds, up 2 percent from the |
September 1 forecast but down 1 percent from 1995. Acreage for
harvest is estimated at 1.41 million acres, unchanged from September 1 and
7 percent below a year ago. Yields are expected to average 2,421 pounds per
harvested acre, up 37 pounds from last month and 139 pounds above 1995.
Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South  '‘
Carolina) is expected to total 2.05 billion pounds, 2 percent above last month
but 3 percent below the 1995 crop. Yield for the 4-State area is expected to’
average 2,474 pounds per acre, 51 pounds above last month. An increase of
200 pounds in Alabama's expected yield per acre contributed to improved crop '”
prospects in the region. Harvest continued to make good progress, although
heavy rains received in late-September delayed or stopped harvest activities
across most of the region. The Georgia crop outlook held steady compared to a
month ago. Tomato spotted wilt virus is still a concern, forcing some producers

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-7 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, .
and United States, 1995-96 and Forecasted 1997 on October 1, 1996 1/

Utilized Production : Utilized Production
Boxes : Ton Equivalent

1996-97 : 1994-95 : 1995-96 1996-97

Crop and state

: 1994-95 : 1995-96 :

1,000 Tons —
Oranges :
Early Mid «& 3
Navel 3/ 3
AZ : 400 700 650 1s 27 24
cA 4/ : 35,000 38,000 37,000 1,313 1,426 1,388
FL : 119,700 121,200 130,000 5,387 5,454 5,850
TX 3 950 830 1,300 40 35 55
US : 156,050 160,730 168,950 6,755 6,942 7,317
Valencia 2
AZ : 650 950 850 24 36 32
cA : 21,000 28,000 26,000 788 1,051 975
FL > 85,800 82,000 90,000 3,861 3,690 4,050
TX : 105 110 150 4 4 6
us : 107,555 111,060 117,000 4,677 4,781 5,063
All :
BZ : 1,050 1,650 1,500 39 63 56
cA : 56,000 66,000 63,000 2,101 2,477 2,363
FL : 205,500 203,200 220,000 9,248 9,144 9,900
TX : 1,055 940 1,450 44 39 61
us : 263,605 271,790 285,950 11, 432 11,723 12,380
Temples :
FL : 2,550 2,150 2,500 114 97 113
Grapefruit 3
White Seedless :
FL : 25,700 23,200 26,500 1,092 986 1,126
Colored Seedless :
FL : 28,700 28,100 31,500 1,220 1,194 1,339
Other :
FL : 1,300 1,050 1,000 55 45 43
All z
AZ 3 1,400 1,200 1,100 47 40 37
cA 5/ 2
Desert : 3,300 111
Other Areas : 6,000 201
Total : 9,300 8,100 8,000 312 271 268
FL : 55,700 52,350 59,000 2,367 2,225 2,508
TX : 4,650 4,550 5,700 186 182 228
us : 71,050 66,200 "73,800 2,912 2,718 3,041
Tangerines :
AZ 3 650 1,000 850 25 38 32
CA : 2,500 2,600 2,600 94 97 98
FL : 3,550 4,500 6,000 168 213 285
Us : 6,700 8,100 9,450 287 348 415
Lemons :
AZ : 3,600 5,100 4,700 137 194 179
CA : 20,000 21,000 22,000 760 7198 836
us : 23,600 26,100 26,700 897 992 1,015
Tangelos :
FL 3,150 2,450 3,800 142 110 171
K-Early Citrus
FL 120 160 200 5 7 9
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1996 B-32 NASS, USDA


producers’ expectations for recoverable tonnage. A significant number of acres
had severe lodging that was expected to make harvest difficult. Rainy weather
during September slowed planting and caused some replanting for Louisiana's next
year's crop. Little hurricane or storm damage during Florida's growing season
allowed sugarcane to make good growth. Sugarcane mills in Florida were
preparing to begin processing cane in late October. Sugarcane growth in Texas
was irregular due to the effects of the mid-summer drought and lack of adequate
irrigation water. Heavy rains at summer’s end and in early autumn revived the
crop and may offset the effect of the summer's drought.

Grapes: Grape production for October 1 is 5.96 million tons, up slightly from

August's forecast and a year ago. New York and Pennsylvania forecasts
increased while Michigan and Washington decreased. Production for all other
states was carried forward from the previous August forecast.

The California all grape forecast, at 5.42 million tons, was carried forward
from August and is up 3 percent from last year. Of this total, 2.4 million tons
are raisin varieties, 2.3 million tons are wine varieties, and 720,000 tons
table varieties. Picking of Thompson Seedless grapes for all uses is nearing
completion with good quality reported. Table grape harvest in the San Joaquin
Valley is active. Wine grape harvest is also active with some areas reporting
lower yields than expected.

Grape production in New York increased to 195,000 tons, up 5 percent from August
and 18 percent from 1995. Cool, wet weather caused mildew and rot problems and
has delayed harvest. Pennsylvania expects to produce 70,000 tons, up 4 percent
from the previous forecast and 11 percent from 1995. Sugar development has been
slow, and harvest is behind schedule.

Michigan’s forecast increased to 65,000 tons, up 5 percent from August but down
7 percent from 1995. Niagara harvest is complete while Concord harvest began
October 1 and should continue the entire month. Sugar content is behind normal.
Washington’s forecast decreased to 150,000 tons, down 4 percent from the August
forecast and down 54 percent from a year ago. Freeze damage continued to
suppress yields. Concord harvest has begun.

Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 1996-97 U.S. Grapefruit crop is
3.04 million tons, up 12 percent from last season and 4 percent

larger than the 1994-95 season. This year’s tonnage is a record large crop,

surpassing the previous record of 3.032 million tons in the 1976-77 season.

The October 1 Florida all grapefruit crop is forecast at a record large

59.0 million boxes (2.51 million tons), 13 percent more than last year and

6 percent more than the second largest crop of 1994-95. More trees and fruit
per tree than last year, with average fruit size, contributed to the record
large crop. The white seedless grapefruit forecast is 26.5 million boxes
(1.13 million tons), 14 percent more than last season. The colored seedless
forecast is 31.5 million boxes (1.34 million tons), up 12 percent from a year
ago. The seedy grapefruit crop is expected to total 1.00 million boxes
(43,000 tons), 5 percent less than last year.

California’s all grapefruit forecast is 8.00 million boxes (268,000 tons),

1 percent less than last year and 14 percent less than two years ago. Higher
than normal temperatures matured the desert area crop slightly ahead of normal.
Major defects throughout the State were wind scar, flat sides, and sunburn.
Texas production is expected to be 5.70 million boxes (228,000 tons), 25 percent
more than last year. More fruit per tree outweighed smaller fruit size for the
larger production. The Arizona 1996-97 crop is 1.10 million boxes

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-12 NASS, USDA


Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

Total Production

Grapes (Table Type) 1/

cA 602,000 718,000 720,000
Grapes (Wine Type) 1/
CA 2,265,000 2,275,000 2,300,000
Grapes (Raisin Type) 1/ 2/
CA 2,389,000 2,255,000 2,400,000
All Grapes
AZ 1/ 26,000 26,000 25,000
AR 1/ 6,000 8,000 9,000
CA 1/ 5,256,000 5,248,000 5,420,000
GA 1/ 3,200 3,200 3,500
MI 65,000 70,000 65,000
MO 1/ 2,600 2,300 1,800
NY 190,000 165,000 195,000
NC 1/ 1,500 1,300 1,200
OH 1/ 7,000 9,200 7,900
OR 1/ 10,800 14,000 15,000
PA 80,000 63,000 70,000
sc 1/ 500 300 600
WA 225,000 326,000 150,000
us 5,873,600 5,936,300 5,964,000

1/ Estimates for current. year carried from earlier forecast.
2/ Fresh basis.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-31 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

Area Planted

Area Harvested 1/

Hectares

Corn 28,832,140 32,195,110 26,302,830 29,651,230
Sorghum 3,825,940 5,375,900 3,350,020 4,857,900
Rice 1,263,040 1,187,770 1,251,710 1,177,240
Soybeans 2/ 25,323, 480 26,027, 640 24,938,620 25,673,530
Peanuts 622,210 577,900 613,910 570,820
Sunflower 2/ 1,407,510 1,127,870 1,363,000 1,086,590
All Cotton 6,851,970 5,764,000 6,477,750 5,252,710

Upland 6,765,120 5,657,160 6,392,320 5,146,730

Amer-Pima 86,850 106, 840 85,430 105,990
All Hay 24,191,960 24,523,810

Alfalfa 9,942,830 9,816,160

All Other 14,249,130 14,707,650
Dry Edible Beans 837,430 735,730 768,630 690,240
Dry Edible Peas 2/ 80,130 76,890 78,510 74,060
Bustrian Winter

Peas 2/ 4,410 3,480 3,120 2,950
Lentils 2/ 64,510 51,800 62,480 50,990
Tobacco 268,350 298,330
Sugarbeets 584,620 560,130 573,490 539,860
Sugarcane for

Sugar and Seed 377,290 352,890

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.
2/ 1995 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 A-8 NASS, USDA


Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

1995 1996

1,000 Acres ~- --- Tons --- 2 wa 1,000 Tons -~----~
AZ 165 175 7.80 8.00 1,200 1,287 1,400
BR 1s. 25 25 2.50 2.50 85 63 63
CA . 1,000 1,060 6.90 7.40 6,650 6,900 7,844
co 850 860 3.60 3.70 3,276 3,060 3,182
cT 1/ 15 17 2.10 2.10 70 32 36
DE 1/ 4 7 3.75 4.80 26 15 34
ID 1,100 1,000 4.10 4.00 3,978 4,510 4,000
IL 620 670 4.00 3.60 2,275 2,480 2,412
IN 320 375 4.00 3.40 1,330 1,280 1,275
IA 1,350 1,200 3.60 3.70 4,625 4,860 4,440
KS 850 850 3.80 4.30 3,120 3,230 3,655
KY : 300 300 3.90 3.40 1,110 1,170 1,020
ME 1/ 15 13 2.00 1.50 35 30 20
MD 1/ $5 60 4.30 5.00 276 237 300
MA l/ : 20 17 2.40 2.50 65 48 43
MI : 1,050 1,000 4.10 3.50 4,095 4,305 3,500
MN 1,425 1,475 3.50 3.10 5,920 4,988 4,573
MO 450 480 2.80 2.85 1,260 1,260 1,368
MT 1,600 1,700 2.50 2.20 3,565 4,000 3,740
NE 1,350 1,400 3.50 3.60 5,040 4,725 5,040
NV 240 240 4.50 4.70 1,032 1,080 1,128
NH 1/ 13 14 2.10 2.20 40 27 31
NJ 1/ 30 30 3.50 3.50 111 105 105
NM 250 255 5.30 5.20 1,300 1,325 1,326
NY 650 690 2.60 2.70 1,829 1,690 1,863
nc 1/ 20 15 3.10 2.80 60 62 42
ND 1,400 1,300 2.20 1.80 2,755 3,080 2,340
OH 700 700 3.80 3.20 2,772 2,660 2,240
OK 380 400 3.80 3.70 1,190 1,444 1,480
OR 450 460 4.30 4.40 1,640 1,935 2,024
PA 780 770 2.90 3.00 2,400 2,262 2,310
RI 1/ 2 3 2.00 2.00 5 4 6
sD 2,600 2,500 2.50 2.20 5,250 6,500 5,500
TN 1/ 50 45 3.60 3.00 165 180 135
TX 160 150 3.60 4.10 405 576 615
uT 545 545 4.30 4.20 2,205 2,344 2,289
vT i/ 95 95 2.10 2.20 220 200 209
VA 1/ 140 130 3.30 3.40 434 462 442
WA 500 470 5.10 4.70 2,209 2,550 2,209
wi ois 40 40 3.00 3.20 160 120 128
wt 2,300 2,100 2.60 2.30 5,750 5,980 4,830
wy 660 620 2.90 2.50 1,403 1,914 1,550
US 24,569 24,256 3.46 3.33 81,336 84,980 80,747

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-22 NASS, USDA




DROUGHT SEVERITY

(LONG TERM PALMER)
September 28, 1996 UPDATED BIWEEKLY
sr
g
rhe _—
‘MODERATE Nn

‘. ‘MOIST’
(ODERATE

MOIST:
Sey
oan Y C | oN
. \ MODERATE. \ MODERATE
N 11ST? a
sivene!
yy
“ 2] na
MODERATE,
Q
4
NOAAJUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _pesed on praininry reer
Drought Severity
Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal

dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-2 NASS, USDA


September Weather Summary: Atlantic Hurricane Fran and Eastern Pacific
Hurricane Fausto highlighted a wet pattern across
the South and East. Days before Fran made landfall in North Carolina,
Hurricane Edouard brushed coastal New England with high winds and heavy rain.
Just after Fran hit, Hurricane Hortense dumped copious rainfall on Puerto Rico,
but curved away from the U.S. mainland. Meanwhile, a series of cold fronts
crossed the interior Northwest, reducing the wildfire threat and the severity of
the 4-month drought. The fronts also sparked heavy rain in the northern and
central Plains. In parts of the Southwest, however, drought durations reached
1 year despite the arrival of below-normal temperatures. The only significant
dry pocket east of the Rockies included the upper Midwest, where many totals
were less than 50 percent of normal. In contrast, monthly rainfall topped
200 percent of normal along Hurricane Fran's path from North Carolina to western
New York. Major flooding-~-rival to that observed in January 1996--unfolded
along many Middle Atlantic rivers in Fran's wake.

A split jet-stream pattern left much of the Nation cooler than normal, but
protected the Midwest from an early freeze. The southern branch of the jet
stream cut across the United States, confining persistent heat to southern parts
of Texas and Florida. The northern branch of the split became configured in an
"omega block"--named for its similarity in appearance to the Greek letter--that
arched northward far into central Canada. As a result, significant cold
outbreaks were diverted away from the Midwest. Toward month's end, a surge of
Western Pacific storminess--including energy associated with former Typhoon Tom-
-demolished the block and allowed for a more normal delivery of autumn airmasses
into the United States.

Raleigh-Durham (RDU), NC (16.64 inches) and Cleveland, OH (11.05 inches) posted
September-record rainfalls, boosted by 24-hour record totals associated with
Hurricane Fran's remnants. In addition to a 79 mph wind gust, RDU received
8.80 inches on September 5-6; Cleveland recorded 5.22 inches on September 6-7.
RDU's September total was a record for any month, previously set in August 1908
(13.63 inches). Hurricane Fran struck the North Carolina coast south of
Wilmington on the evening of September 5, only 55 days after and a few miles
west of Hurricane Bertha. Fran's 115 mph sustained winds and 12 to 13 foot
storm surge exacted a severe toll on beaches left exposed by Bertha's erosion.
Farther north, Fran's rain fell on soils already saturated by early-month rains
and in river basins left vulnerable to flooding by an 11-month wet spell.
Lynchburg, VA measured a September-record 12.54 inches, 91 percent of which fell
by the 16th.

Although Hurricane Fausto's circulation dissipated over rugged north-central
Mexico shortly after a September 13 landfall, its moisture became absorbed into
a disturbance crossing the Southwest. By the time the system reached the
Northeast on September 17-18, it was capable of producing the heaviest 24-hour
rainfall (4.71 inches) in 12 years--in addition to wind gusts of 53 mph--at
Massachusetts' Blue Hill Observatory. Several days earlier, on September 9-10,
Hurricane Hortense crossed southwestern Puerto Rico. Island totals reached

23 inches, causing extensive flooding. Boosted by Hortense's rains, San Juan's
monthly total reached a September-record 15.15 inches.

Near-record to record September rainfall soaked the Plains from South Dakota to
Kansas, and a band from the Ozark Plateau to the lower Ohio Valley. In South
Dakota, Aberdeen's total of 5.32 inches broke a September record that had stood
since 1988. In Kansas, Dodge City's September total of 5.08 inches wound up
fourth all-time. Evansville, IN noted their second wettest, sixth coolest
September on record. During the second half of the month, 83 percent of
Evansville's 8.57-inch total fell, while the mercury climbed to 80 degrees F
only once--on the 22nd. In Arizona, Tucson's monthly average temperature was
2.7 degrees F below normal, marking their first cooler-than-normal month since
June 1995.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-3 NASS, USDA


Index

Beans, Dry Edible .
Citrus Fruit ...
Corn for Grain
Corn ~ Ears per Acre
Cotton .
Cottonseed .
Crop Moisture Maps :
Grapes
Hay, All .
Hay, Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay .. sees
Hay, Other .....
Hazelnuts..:....
Lentils
Papayas
Peanuts .... seen e eee
Peas, Austrian winter see
Peas, Dry Edible ....
Pécans .........
Potatoes
Reliability Statement .
Rice .. ——
Sorghum for. Grain ...
Soybeans for Beans ..
Sugarbeets oe
Sugarcane for Sugar and
Sunflower .......es sees eee
Tobacco ....
US Summary

Crop Production
October 1996 B-18

Page

Table Narrative
B-34 B-14
B-24 B-10
B-32 B-12
B-12 B- 5
B-37
B-19 B- 8
B-20

B- 1
A-31 B-12
A-21 B- 9
BR-22 B- 9
A-23 B-10
A-36 B-15
B-25 B-10
B-36 B-15
A-18 B- 7
B-26 B-10
B-25 B-10
B-35 B-14
B-26 B-10

B-16
A-14 B- 6
B-13 B- 6
B-15 B- 6
B-30 B-11
A-30 B-11
B-17 B- 7
B-27 B-11
B- 3

Agricultural Statistics B
NASS,

joard
USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,
State, and United States, 1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

--- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds --

Class 1, Flue-cured
Type 11, Old Belts

NC : 68,000 74,000 1,920 2,000 130,560 148,000
VA : 34,000 35,000 1,935 2,100 65,790 73,500
US : 102,000 109,000 1,925 2,032 196,350 221,500
Type 12, Bastern NC :
Belt 2
NC : 151,000 165,000 1,860 1,900 280,860 313,500
Type 13, NC Border & :
sc Belt 3
NC : 34,000 36,000 1,845 1,900 62,730 68,400
SC : 50,000 50,000 2,100 2,300 105,000 115,000
us : 84,000 86,000 1,997 2,133 167,730 183,400
Type 14, GA-FL Belt :
EL 2 7,200 7,300 2,455 2,600 17,676 18,960
GA : 42,000 46,000 2,000 2,300 84,000 105,800
US : 49,200 53,300 2,067 2,341 101,676 124,760
Total 11-14 386,200 413,300 1,933 2,040 746,616 843,160

VA 1,100 1,100 1,400 1,700 1,540 1,870
Type 22, Eastern

District 2

KY : 3,900 3,900 2,370 2,700 9,243 10,530

TN 3 7,600 7,500 2,285 2,500 17,366 18,750

Us : 11,500 11,400 2,314 2,568 26,609 29,280
Type 23, Western 3

District 3

KY : 3,700 3,700 2,600 2,800 9,620 10,360

TN : 580 590 2,450 2,700 1,421 1,593

US 5 4,280 4,290 2,580 2,786 11,041 11,953
Total 21-23 : 16,880 16,790 2,322 2,567 39,190 43,103
Class 3, Air-cured :
Class 3A, Light :

Air-cured 3 F
Type 31, Burley :

IN 3 6,700 7,600 2,030 2,000 13,601 15,200

KY : 155,000 195,000 1,950 2,150 302,250 419,250

MO : 2,706 2,300 2,025 2,200 5,468 6,380

Nc : 8,100 8,300 1,290 2,000 10,449 16, 600

OH : 7,700 8,300 1,950 1,750 15,015 14,525:

TN : 43,000 48,000 1,700 2,000 73,100 96,000

VA : 9,000 10,000 1,540 2,100 13,860 21,000

we : 2,000 2,000 1,300 1,850 2,600 3,700

us : 234,200 282,100 1,863 2,101 436,343 592,655
Type 32, Southern MD :

Belt :

MD : 8,500 8,000 1,350 41,500 11,475 12,000

PA : 3,400 3,500 1,900 1,850 6,460 6,475

us > 11,900 11,500 1,507 1,607 17,935 18,475
Total 31-32 : 246,100 293,600 1,846 2,082 454,278 611,130

--continued

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

Class 2, Fire-cured
Type 21, VA Belt

October 19396 A-28 NASS, USDA


Give Us Your Feedback on USDA Statistics

You are invited to a public meeting on October 21 in Chicago, Illinois, to comment on USDA
statistics, market reports, and economic information. Suggestions are invited on data and reports
produced by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, Economic Research Service,
World Agricultural Outiook Board, Foreign Agricultural Service, and Agricultural Marketing
Service. Officials from each agency will be present at the meeting to discuss current data
programs and possible changes.

Written comments are also welcome. Direct comments or questions to Rich Allen, USDA-
NASS, Room 4117 South Building, Washington, DC 20250-2000. Phone (202) 720-4333, fax
(202) 720-9013, or E-mail rallen@nass.usda.gov.

Data User Feedback Forum Q October 21, 1996 QO 12:30-5:00 p.m.
Holiday Inn-Mart Plaza Q 350 North Orleans Street, Chicago, ILO (312) 836-5000

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-21 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested,

1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted

United States,

Area Harvested 1/

Corn
Sorghum
Rice
Soybeans 2/
Peanuts
Sunflower 2/
All Cotton
Upland
Amer-Pima
All Hay
Alfalfa
All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Dry Edible Peas 2/
Austrian Winter
Peas 2/
Lentils 2/
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed

16,931.4
16,716.8
214.6

2,069.3
198.0

10.9
159.4

1,444.6

1,000 Acres

79,555
13,284
2,935.0
64,315
1,428.0
2,787
14,243.0
13,979.0
264.0

64,995
8,278
3,093.0
61,624
1,517.0
3,368
16, 006.7
15,795.6
211.1
59,779
24,569
35,210
1,899.3
194.0

73,269
12,004
2,909.0
63,440
1,410.5
2,685
12,979.6
12,717.7
261.9
60,599
24,256
36,343
1,705.6
183.0

7.3
126.0
737.2

1,334.0

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie.,

2/ 1995 revised.

Crop Production
October 1996

grain, beans,

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS,

USDA


All Other Hay: Production of all other hay is forecast at 71.1 million tons,

4 percent above the quantity expected August 1 and 2 percent
above the 1995 total. Area for harvest, at 36.3 million acres, is up 3 percent
from last year. Yield per acre is expected to average 1.96 tons, down 1 percent
from the 1995 yield. Favorable growing conditions late in the season helped
push yields up from the August 1 forecast in many area, especially in the
Southeastern and South Central States. Louisiana showed the largest increase in
expected yields from August, up 29 percent, followed by Texas and Oklahoma, up
25 and 23 percent, respectively.

Dry Edible Beans: Production of dry edible beans is forecast at 27.0 million
cwt for 1996, down 13 percent from a year earlier and

7 percent below two years ago. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.71 million

acres, down 10 percent from 1995 and 7 percent below 1994. The average yield of

1,582 pounds per acre is 52 pounds below a year ago and the same as 1994. The

October 1 forecast is 2 percent below August as rains during harvest damaged

beans.

This year's dry bean crop was late developing in the early season. Hail damage
cut a swath through the southeast corner of Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and
western Kansas. Michigan growers planted extra late but enjoyed a frost-free
extension at the end of the season. Wet weather during harvest slowed progress
and reduced yields in many locations across the country. Harvest is slow in
Michigan and New York because of repeated rainfall. Combining is two-thirds
finished in North Dakota and Minnesota. Western States are mostly finished with
harvest except in California, where progress and yields are good. Yields are
record high in Wyoming and the highest in 23 years in Idaho.

Lentils: Production of lentils is estimated at 1.22 million cwt, down

43 percent from 1995's 2.15 million cwt. Both harvested acres and
yield were off from last year. Harvested area, at 126,000 acres, was down
28,400 acres from 1995, while the average yield of 969 pounds per acre was off
420 pounds.

Dry Edible Peas: Production of dry peas is estimated at 2.28 million cwt, down

51 percent from last year in Idaho, Washington, and other
States. Both harvested area and average yield fell. Harvested area is
estimated at 183,000 acres, down 6 percent from last year. The average yield of
1,247 pounds per acre fell 1,129 pounds from last year. A late spring, coupled
with a hot and dry summer in the Pacific Northwest, resulted in poor growing
conditions throughout 1996.

Austrian Winter Peas: An Austrian winter pea crop of 103,000 cwt in Idaho and

Oregon is down 13 percent from 1995 but double the 1994
production. Area harvested, at 7,300 acres, is down 400 acres from last year
while the average yield dropped from 1,545 pounds in 1995 to 1,411 pounds in
1996.

Winter Potatoes, 1996 Revised: The final 1996 winter potato production is

estimated at 3.27 million cwt, up 32 percent
from a year earlier and 38 percent above 1994 output. Harvested acreage was
estimated at 14,500 acres, a gain of 2,600 acres from 1995, while the final
yield of 226 cwt per acre out did the previous year by 18 cwt. The final
production estimate for South Florida was up 25 percent from the forecast made
in April.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-10 NASS, USDA


to harvest late-maturing fields early. The Florida harvest hit the half-way
mark under good harvest conditions. In South Carolina, drier conditions
enabled harvest to proceed at an active pace as 23 percent of the crop was
harvested by October 1, but still 7 points behind normal.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 540 million pounds, down

2 percent from last month and a year ago. Yield per harvested acre in the
region, at 2,675 pounds, is 63 pounds below last month. Most of the peanut
acres in North Carolina were outside of the main path of Hurricane Fran, however
some acreage was affected by the spinoff moisture. Cool evening temperatures
have slowed maturation. In Virginia, favorable conditions have helped harvest
progress. At month’s end, harvest stood at 20 percent complete compared with
27 percent normally for this date.

The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected
to total 822 million pounds, up 3 percent from last month and 5 percent above
1995. Yields are expected to average 2,170 pounds per acre, 61 pounds above
last month and 147 pounds above last year. Digging got underway with some
disease problems reported. In New Mexico, crop prospects remain excellent.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 12.7 million acres, decreased

15,000 acres from September and is down 19 percent from last year.
American-Pima harvested acreage remains unchanged from last month, at
261,900 acres, 24 percent above 1995.

In early October, 44 percent of Texas' acreage was in good to excellent
condition, and one-fourth was rated poor to very. Boll opening was two-thirds
complete, 6 percent ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest progress was hampered
by storms during the month, and 19 percent of the acreage was harvested on
October 6, compared to the 28 percent normally harvested. Unseasonably cool,
wet weather in the Plains caused concern about final maturity of the crop, and
defoliants were applied. Harvest was complete in the Coastal Bend, but storms
caused quality of the crop to decline in the Central region and also slowed
harvesting. Cotton objective yield data indicate Texas' crop has the highest
large boll count and third highest boll weights since 1986.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated their cotton in mostly good to excellent condition in early October. The
region was subject to heavy rains in late September, delaying harvest activity.
The rainfall also caused deterioration in quality, and boll rot and regrowth
after defoliation were a concern. One-half of Louisiana’s crop was in good to
excellent condition on October 6 and 15 percent was in poor condition, although
one month earlier, 73 percent was rated good to excellent. Tennessee reported
82 percent of their acreage in good to excellent condition in early October.
Mississippi and Tennessee were 14 percent ahead of the average harvest progress,
at 49 percent and 38 percent, respectively. Louisiana showed harvest at

47 percent complete, which equaled the 5-year average pace. Data from objective
yield surveys show large boll counts for Arkansas’ rank sixth and Mississippi's
rank fifth, since 1986. Louisiana’s large bolls are the third lowest during
this time period. Early season boll weight data indicate Arkansas weights are
the second lowest during the past 10 years, and Louisiana and Mississippi rank
sixth.

Forty-eight percent of Arizona's crop was in good to excellent condition and
harvest was 5 points below the average pace, at 20 percent, on October 6.

Arizona’s monsoons continued to effect cotton acreage in early September, and
although the condition improved during mid-September, it declined towards the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-8 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

State

1995 1/: 1996 : 1995 1/ : 1996

1,000 Acres 1,000 Bushels

AL 3 225 315 24.0 28.0 29.0 5,400 9,135
AR : 3,400 3,600 26.0 30.0 32.0 88,400 115,200
DE : 233 215 20.0 30.0 32.0 4,660 6,880
FL 2/ : 28 33 26.0 30.0 30.0 728 990
GA : 310 390 27.0 26.0 26.0 8,370 10,140
IL > 9,700 9,850 33.0 37.0 39.0 378,300 384,150
IN > 4,980 5,360 39.5 35.0 38.0 196,710 203,680
IA : 9,260 9,450 44.0 44.0 44.0 407,440 415,800
KS : 2,050 2,000 25.0 34.0 34.0 51,250 68,000
KY : 1,150 1,180 36.0 36.0 37.0 41,400 43,660
LA : 1,040 1,050 25.0 31.0 33.0 26,000 34,650
MD 3 510 480 23.0 33.0 33.0 11,730 15,840
MI : 1,490 1,640 40.0 32.0 32.0 59,600 52,480
MN : 5,800 5,900 40.5 36.0 37.0 234,900 218,300
MS : 1,800 1,750 21.0 27.0 29.0 37,800 50,750
MO > 4,500 4,050 29.5 35.0 36.0 132,750 145,800
NE : 3,060 3,010 33.0 44.0 45.0 100,980 135,450
NI 2/ : 138 127 22.0 35.0 35.0 3,036 4,445
NC : 1,070 1,200 25.0 31.0 29.0 26,750 34,800
ND : 640 820 29.0 30.0 29.0 18,560 23,780
OH : 4,030 4,490 38.0 32.0 34.0 153,140 152,660
OK 2/ 3 275 285 20.0 24.0 24.0 5,500 6,840
PA 2/ z 315 285 30.0 44.0 44.0 9,450 12,540
sc 3 530 540 24.0 26.0 26.0 12,720 14,040
sD > 2,500 2,650 30.0 32.0 34.0 75,000 90,100
TN : 1,080 1,150 32.0 32.0 35.0 34,560 40,250
TX : 240 270 25.0 29.0 29.0 6,000 7,830
VA : 470 480 24.0 32.0 33.0 11,280 15,840
WI 800 870 43.0 39.0 37.0 34,400 32,190
US 61,624 63,440 35.3 35.8 37.0 2,176,814 2,346,220

1/ Revised.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 R-15 NASS, USDA


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
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Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,

20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-20 NASS, USDA


“ sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Type, State,
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

Area Harvested : Yield : Production

1,000 Acres --- Pounds ---
62 43 820 69,000 50,840
245 206 970 266,000 208,550
355 95 1,050 487,500 372,750
41 19 960 46,200 39,360
1,210 970 1,250 1,899,500 1,512,500
873 731 1,300 1,388,800 1,134,900
18 20 1,000 22,000 18,000
55 46 1,119 44,655 61,545
2,829 2,130 1,201 4,223,655 3,398,445
Non-oil =:
co : 48 52 1,090 27,300 52,320
KS : 75 54 990 64,800 74,250
MN H 78 49 1,060 112,500 82,680
NE : 44 28 970 27,000 42,680
ND : 190 290 1,230 303,750 233,700
sD : 67 39 1,340 38,400 89,780
TX : 22 25 820 14,300 18,040
oth : 15 18 1,163 24,480 17,445
Sts
us 2/_: 539 555 1,133 612,530 610,895
All :
co : 110 95 938 1,000 96,300 103,160 95,000
KS : 290 260 975 1,300 330,800 282,800 338,000
MN H 433 144 1,052 1,400 600,000 455,430 201,600
NE : 85 a7 965 1,150 73,200 82,040 54,050
ND : 1,400 1,260 1,247 1,220 2,203,250 1,746,200 1,537,200
sD : 940 770 1,303 1,320 1,427,200 1,224,680 1,016,400
TX Hy 40 45 901 1,000 36,300 36,040 45,000
oth :
Sts : 70 64 1,128 1,270 69,135 78,990 81,280
us 2/ 3,368 2,685 1,190 1,255 4,836,185 4,009,340 3,368,530

1/ Revised.
2/ Estimates include all States except AK and HI.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Production, United States,
1996 and Forecasted October 1, 1997

Crop Year 1995-96 1996-97 1996-97
2 1,000 Tons
Citrus Fruits 1/ 3

Oranges : 11,723 12,380
Grapefruit : 2,718 3,041
Lemons : 992 1,015
Tangerines H 348 415
Temples (FL) 3 97 113
Tangelos (FL) : 110 171
K-Early Citrus (FL) 3 7 9

: Metric Tons

Oranges 10, 634, 930 11,230,950
Grapefruit 2,465,730 2,758,750
Lemons 899,930 920,790
Tangerines 315,700 376,480
Temples (FL) 88,000 102,510
Tangelos (FL) 99,790 155,130
K-Early Citrus (FL) 6,350 8,160

1/ Crop year begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 A-3 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)
September 28, 1996 UPDATED WEEKLY ry
My FAVORABLY
g MOST
FAVORABLY r ». ¥ ABNORMAL}
MOIST 7) H ‘samy? aos *
ii} DRY “POORABLy
~ FAVORABLY WET}
SLIGHTLY v
1 DRY NN Q
bn en Bd :
4 ‘Oo ~“ ) ffipae y q
sNCRROLLY / penal 2
Der © aavonnty?
/ WET] M7
pecesavay
~~ (a) ~
. H i ¥
[J
FAVORABLY raven (CEsaver
MOIST
Z
ABNORMALLY
rg
J

*

NOAAJUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _ tase en praterinary reports

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-1 NASS, USDA


Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1994-96 1/

Area Planted Area Harvested

1,000 Acres

1/ 1995 revised.

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1995-96 1/

cA : 5.0 5.7 5.0 5.7
FL : 8.3 8.8 6.9 8.8
US : 13.3 14.5 11.9 14.5
CA 3 260 250 1,300 1,425

1/ 1996 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-26 NASS, USDA


All cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million bales, up 2 percent from last
month and last year. Yield is indicated at 673 pounds per acre, up 136 pounds
from 1995. Late August rainfall in Texas resulted in the highest boll count in
10 years, and forecasted production increased 200,000 bales from September.
California production increased 156,000 bales from last month, as boll weights
were higher than earlier indications. Alabama's crop is up 70,000 bales from
September due to beneficial weather during the season and minimal boll loss.

All oranges: Production for the 1996-97 season is forecast at a record large
12.4 million tons, up 6 percent from a year ago. This year’s crop
is 5 percent larger than the previous record of 11.8 million tons set in the
1979-80 season. Florida's production amounts to 220 million boxes (9.90 million
tons), 8 percent above last season and 7 percent above two years ago. Florida’s
all orange production, early varieties, and Valencia crop are each record large
crops. Early and mid-season varieties are expected to produce 130 million boxes
(5.85 million tons), 7 percent above last year. The Valencia forecast is
90.0 million boxes (4.05 million tons), 10 percent above a year ago.
California‘’s all orange production is forecast at 63.0 million boxes
(2.36 million tons), 5 percent less than last season. The Navel orange forecast
was unchanged from September at 37.0 million boxes (1.39 million tons), down
3 percent from last year's production of 38.0 million boxes. The initial
California Valencia forecast is 26.0 million boxes (975,000 tons), 7 percent
less than last year.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1996-97 season is
forecast at 1.53 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast projects
the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The
final 1995-96 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.52 gallons per box at

42.0 degrees Brix. Projected yields for 1996-97 early and midseason and
Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report.

This report was approved on October 11, 1996, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural
Statistics Board.

Adting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Eugene Moos Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1996 A-2 NASS, USDA


(37,000 tons), 8 percent fewer boxes than the 1995-96 crop. Although fruit
quality is good, average to small sizes contributed to lower production.

Lemons: The 1996-97 lemon crop is forecast at 1.02 million tons, 2 percent
more than last year and 13 percent more than the 1994-95 crop.

California production in 1996-97 is forecast at 22.0 million boxes

(836,000 tons), 5 percent more than last year and 10 percent more than two
seasons ago. Grades in the Central Valley are good to excellent. Sizes in the
south coast area are small with fair quality. Desert area quality is reported
as good. The Arizona lemon crop is expected to be 4.70 million boxes

(179,000 tons), down 8 percent from a year ago but up 31 percent from two years
ago. Young trees have suffered some wind scar on the fruit.

Tangelos: The 1996-97 Florida tangelo crop is forecast at 3.80 million boxes
(171,000 tons), 55 percent more than last season’s crop and

21 percent more than the 1994-95 season. Although fruit size is smaller than

last year, an increase in trees and a huge increase in fruit per tree caused the

larger crop.

Temples: Florida 1996-97 temple production is forecast at 2.50 million boxes
(113,000 tons), 16 percent more than last year’s production but

2 percent fewer than the 1994-95 season. Increased fruit per tree offset fewer

trees and smaller fruit for the increased production.

Tangerines: The 1996-97 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at a record large
415,000 tons, 19 percent larger than last year’s crop which was

the previous record. Florida’s tangerine forecast is 6.00 million boxes

(285,000 tons), 33 percent more than the previous season’s crop. Although fruit

size is smaller than a year ago, more trees and fruit per tree caused the larger

crop.

California tangerine production is 2.60 million boxes (98,000 tons), equal to
last year’s production but 4 percent more than the 1994-95 crop. The crop was
maturing well with average fruit size. Picking should begin by late October.
Arizona’s tangerine forecast is 850,000 boxes (32,000 tons), 15 percent less
than last season but 31 percent more than two seasons ago. Fruit quality was
good, but sizes were average to small.

K-Early Citrus: Production of K-Early Citrus Fruit in Florida is expected to

total 200,000 boxes (9,000 tons), 25 percent more than last
season and 67 percent more than 1994-95. Smaller average fruit size and fewer
trees were offset by much more fruit per tree to increase production.

Florida Citrus: Groves, trees, and new crop fruit were in very good to
excellent condition. Rainfall during the month was adequate.
However, some areas received their monthly amounts in only a few days of very
hard thunderstorms and pounding rain. Some locations had regular weekly rains.
New growth was slowing. Early fruit started to show signs of color break and
some of the specialty fruit turned brighter orange. The first harvest of the
1996-97 season was on September 9. Ambersweet oranges were picked first and
Fallglo tangerines, white, and colored grapefruit followed close behind. Packed
and shipped volumes were low compared to the past two years. A little over a
hundred thousand boxes of all types were shipped to date. There were only a few

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-13 NASS, USDA


Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted October 1, 1996 1/

Total Production

Million Pounds

64.0 11.0 100.0
: 8.0 10.0 7.0
cA 2/ : 1,050.0 850.0 950.0
co 2/ : 85.0 55.0 30.0
cT 2/ : 25.0 20.5 22.0
DE 2/ : 20.0 11.0 20.0
GA 2/ : 26.0 30.0 22.0
ID 2/ : 165.0 75.0 170.0
IL 2/ : 47.0 80.0 70.0
IN 2/ 3 50.0 75.0 48.0
IA 2/ : 12.0 10.0 8.0
KS 2/ : 5.0 6.5 4.0
KY 2/ : 7.0 17.0 14.0
ME 2/ : 54.0 65.0 58.0
MD 2/ : 35.0 35.0 30.0
MA 2/ : 62.5 65.0 62.0
MI : 1,020.0 1,220.0 725.0
MN 2/ : 23.2 22.0 20.0
MO 2/ : 33.0 38.0 34.0
NH 2/ : 41.0 44.0 41.0
NJ 2/ : 70.0 75.0 55.0
NM 3/ : 8.0 3.0
NY : 1,100.0 1,110.0 1,050.0
NC : 250.0 270.0: 180.0
OH 2/ : 90.0 120.0 90.0
OR 2/ : 200.0 140.0 185.0
PA : 400.0 500.0 400.0
RI 2/ : 4.8 4.5 4.5
Sc 2/ : 60.0 60.0 40.0
TN 2/ : 10.0 16.0 11.0
UT 2/ : 48.0 20.0 50.0
vr 2/ : 42.0 45.0 44.0
VA : 305.0 400.0 300.0
WA 5,850.0 5,000.0 5,600.0
wy 150.0 175.0 115.0
WI 2/ 80.0 57.5 49.0
us 11,500.5 10,736.0 10, 608.5

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
3/ Forecast discontinued.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 A-34 NASS, USDA


Forecasted ear counts in Indiana and Ohio are below 1995 but above the five-year
average. Corn harvested in Indiana at five percent lagged behind the 20 percent
harvested of last year and the average 17 percent. In Ohio, four percent was
harvested, compared to nine percent in 1995 and the five-year average of ten
percent. In Indiana, 80 percent of the corn was rated in fair to good condition
compared to 77 percent for Ohio.

Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 797 million bushels, 4 percent
higher than the September forecast and 73 percent above
1995. This is the largest production level since 1992. The U.S. yield is
forecast at 66.4 bushels per acre, up 2.8 bushels from last month and
10.8 bushels above 1995. Eight of the 12 estimating States raised yield
expectations from last month. Nebraska and South Dakota showed the largest
increases, both up 5.0 bushels, followed by Kansas, up 4.0 bushels. If
realized, Kansas will more than double their 1995 production total.

Continued mild weather along with additional moisture have steadily improved the
condition of the crop in most areas. The percent of the South Dakota crop rated
in good to excellent condition jumped 21 points during September. As of
September 29, 62 percent of the crop was mature in the 12 major States, 3 points
ahead of normal. Harvest, however, at 26 percent completion was 7 points behind
the five year average. Persistent rains in Texas have slowed harvest in many
fields.

Rice: Production of all rice is forecast at 176 million cwt. for 1996, up

3 percent from the September 1 estimate and 1 percent above a year ago.
Area for harvest, estimated at 2.91 million acres, is up 1 percent from
September 1, but 6 percent below 1995.

The average yield is forecast at 6,053 pounds per acre, up 96 pounds from last
month and 432 pounds above a year ago. Growers reported the best yields ever,
exceeding the record high yield of 5,964 pounds per acre set in 1994. Arkansas
and Mississippi expect larger crops than earlier estimated, while crops in
California and Louisiana are slightly smaller than estimated a month ago.

Arkansas rice harvest was over 75 percent complete following a banner year with
favorable weather conditions and minimal disease or insect problems. In
California, high moisture levels prompted some producers to delay harvest
activity, but by month’s end rice harvest had gained momentum and was running
slightly ahead of schedule. Louisiana and Texas growers were busy managing
second crop rice. .

Soybeans: Soybeans intended for harvest, at 63.4 million acres, is unchanged

from the September forecast. Average crop maturity lags slightly
behind last year but far below the bumper crop year of 1994. The percent of
soybeans dropping leaves as of September 29 was 16 points behind last year and
15 points behind the five-year average. The percent of soybeans dropping leaves
in Ohio was more than 50 points behind last year and the average. In Indiana,
the percent dropping leaves was 37 points below 1995 and 33 points short of the
average.

By the end of September, harvest was underway in all of the major soybean
producing states. As of September 29, 4 percent of the soybean crop had been
harvested compared to 12 percent a year ago and a five year average of

15 percent. Of the 8 objective yield states, harvest is ahead of 1995 in
Arkansas and Missouri. Indiana, at 3 percent harvested, was 23 points behind
last year’s harvest progress and 17 points short of the average.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-6 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested,

and United States,

Yield,
1995 and Forecasted October 1,

and Production by Class, Type,
1996

State,
(continued)

Class 3, Air-cured

Class 3B, Dark
Air-cured

Type 35, One Sucker
Belt

Type 36, Green River :
Belt
KY
Type 37, VA Sun~cured:
Belt
VA
Total 35-37
Class 4, Cigar Filler
Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA
Class 5, Cigar Binder
Class 5A, CT valley
Binder
Type Sl, CT Valley
Broadleaf
cT
MA
us
Class 5B, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern W:

wi

Type 55, Northern W.
WI

Total 54-55

Total 51-55
Class 6, Cigar Wrappe.
Type 61, CT Valley
Shade-grown
cT
MA
us
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61

All Tobacco 3

2,300
510
2,810

1,300

70
4,180

4,500

1,000
240
1,240

1,900
860

2,760
4,000

990
260
1,250

9,750

2,100
460
2,560

1,200

70
3,830

4,300

1,080
320
1,400

1,800
750

2,550
3,950

1,020

390
1,410
9,660

737,180

2,060
2,000
2,049

2,100

1,125
2,050

2,050

1,980
1,920
1,969

2,370
1,975

2,247
2,161

2,500
2,100
2,428

2,700

1,700
2,500

2,040

1,860
1,800
1,846

1,900
1,800

1,871
1,862

4,738
1,020
5,758

2,730

79
8,567

9,225

1,980
461
2,441

4,503
1,699

6,202
8,643

1,544
431
1,975
19,843

1,268,494

5,250
966
6,216

3,240

119
9,575

8,772

2,009
576
2,585

3,420
1,350

4,770
7,355

1,489
556
2,045
18,172

1,525,140

Crop Production
October 1996

B-29

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


U.S. Corn Production

1987 - 1996
Billion Bushels

11.00

10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00

5.00

4 a 1 1 u 1 1 n 1 1
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Year

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted October 1, 1996

1,000 Acres --

1,000 Bushels --

AL 1/ 3 8 10 40.0 45.0 45.0 320 450
AR : 185 215 71.0 76.0 74.0 13,135 15,910
co 3 165 220 28.0 36.0 38.0 4,620 8,360
GA 1/ : 30 40 37.0 40.0 40.0 1,110 1,600
IL : 170 230 69.0 74.0 74.0 11,730 17,020
KS : 3,100 4,600 56.0 72.0 76.0 173,600 349,600
KY 1/ : 22 19 84.0 92.0 92.0 1,848 1,748
LA 3 84 155 70.0 75.0 78.0 5,880 12,090
MS : 41 72 65.0 68.0 68.0 2,665 4,896
MO : 490 650 73.0 94.0 92.0 35,770 59,800
NE : 980 1,000 58.0 85.0 90.0 56,840 90,000
NM H 130 225 26.0 35.0 38.0 3,380 8,550
ne 1/ 3 10 10 65.0 53.0 33.0 650 530
OK : 320 480 40.0 50.0 52.0 12,800 24,960
sc 1/ : 8 5 40.0 45.0 45.0 320 225
sD 3 120 160 40.0 50.0 55.0 4,800 8,800
TN 1/ Hy 15 13 87.0 88.0 88.0 1,305 1,144
TX : 2,400 3,900 54.0 47.0 49.0 129,600 191,100
us : 8,278 12,004 55.6 63.6 66.4 460,373 796,783

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-13 NASS, USDA


processing plants open to receive packing house eliminations. Caretakers were
very active cutting cover crops prior to the start of the new harvesting season.
Some growers sprayed and applied fall fertilizations. Dead tree removal
continued along with some replanting.

Texas Citrus: Fruit set was good going into the season. However, a lack of

rainfall and irrigation water slowed sizing. The quality of
early picked fruit has been good despite the smaller sizes. Timely rainfall
would be beneficial. Early orange harvest is expected to start in early October
with grapefruit starting in mid-October. Since the 1989 freeze, a large amount
of orange and grapefruit acreage continues to be planted.

Apples: The final forecast of the 1996 apple crop stands at 10.61 billion

pounds, down 1 percent from both the August 1 forecast and last year's
production. Increased production in the Pacific Northwest and California was
not enough to offset reduced prospects in the other states.

The Eastern States (CT, DE, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA,
and WV) expect 2.44 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast
and 16 percent below a year ago. In New York, apples are 7 to 10 days behind in
maturity but have good to excellent size. Harvest is in full swing in North
Carolina with quality good. In Pennsylvania, previous poor pollination, heavy
frosts, and hailstorms are expected to result in a smaller than normal crop.
Fruit size is reported small in Virginia.

Production in the Central States (AR, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN,
and WI) is forecast at 1.08 billion pounds, down 8 percent from the August 1
forecast and 33 percent below the 1995 crop. In Michigan, poor sizing resulted
from the near drought conditions in August. Production for all varieties is
expected to be well below 1995. The Macintosh harvest is winding down, while
Jonathan picking is in full swing.

Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, and WA) is forecast at
7.09 billion pounds, unchanged from the August 1 forecast and 15 percent above
the 1995 crop. Despite a delay of two weeks in picking, the Red Delicious crop
in Washington is maturing well with the recent cool nights and warm days.
Quality appears excellent, but fruit size may be smaller than a year ago.

Pecans: The October 1 forecast for U.S. pecan production is 251 million pounds
(in-shell basis), an increase of 2 percent from September but down

6 percent from last year’s crop of 268 million pounds. Forecasts in Louisiana

and Texas increased while Oklahoma’s forecast decreased this month. All other

forecasting states remained at the same level. .

Georgia production is unchanged at 100 million pounds, up 33 percent from 1995.
Dry conditions in some non-irrigated groves caused nuts to fall prematurely.
Insect pressure was reported in a few areas. By September’s end, harvest had
not yet begun. The Texas forecast is 45.0 million pounds, 13 percent above the
previous forecast but 40 percent below last year. The forecast for improved
varieties increased 17 percent to 35.0 million while native varieties remained
unchanged. Scab and shuckworms are causing problems in many areas. Harvest has
started in South Texas. New Mexico forecasts 30.0 million pounds, equal to last
month but 33 percent less than 1995. Nut quality is good to excellent. Drier
weather has created favorable conditions for nut development.

Alabama forecasts 15.0 million pounds, the same as September but up 50 percent
from last year. Wet conditions have increased scab infestation. Louisiana

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-14 NASS, USDA


Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between September 23 and October 3 to gather information on
expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, soybeans,
and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for
about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited
to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots depend on
the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are
recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the
number of ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with
similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The
five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The
plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested
and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another
plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 15,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed, considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submited their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB used the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
October 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised;

instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a
balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports,
processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1

production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1976-1995 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average
becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain
production ‘forecast is 4.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out’of 3 that
the current production forecast of 9.01 billion bushels will not bé above or
below the final estimate by more than 4.4 percent or approximately 397 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
differencé will not exceed 7.6 percent or approximately 685 million bushels.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1996 B-16 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Area Planted by State and United States, 1995

Area Planted Area Planted

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

240 4,600
3,450 3,100
235 140
30 1,150
320 660
9,750 4,050
5,000 290
9,300 320
2,100 550
1,170 2,550
1,070 1,130
550 250
1,500 490
5,900 830
1,850

U.S. Soybean Production

1987 - 1996
Billion Bushels :

2.80

2.60

2.40

2.20

2.00

1.80

1.60

oO i _L i i L L i 1 i 1
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Year

Crop Production Agricultural statistics Board
October 1996 A-16 NASS, USDA