Cr Pr 2-2 (1-04)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released January 12, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S.

Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.

ET.

All Orange Production Down 1 Percent from December

The U.S. all orange January forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.5 million tons, down 1 percent from the December

forecast but 17 percent above last season’s final utilization. Florida’s all orange forecast is 250 million boxes

(11.3 million tons), down 1 percent from December but 23 percent above the 2002-03 crop. The early and mid-season

varieties forecast is lowered 2 million boxes to 132 million boxes (5.94 million tons). Fruit droppage is higher and

average size is smaller than the previous month’s forecast. The Valencia forecast is unchanged at 118 million boxes

(5.31 million tons) but is 30 percent above last season. Fruit size continues to be above average but not as large as last

season. Fruit droppage remains near the minimum of the previous 10 seasons.

The all orange forecast for California, at 58.0 million boxes (2.18 million tons), is 2 percent less than the October forecast

and 6 percent lower than last season’s final utilization. The Navel orange forecast is unchanged from October at

39.0 million boxes (1.46 million tons) but 5 percent below last season. California’s Valencia orange forecast is reduced

1 million boxes to 19.0 million boxes (713,000 tons), down 5 percent from the October forecast and 10 percent lower than

last season’s final estimate. The crop is progressing normally. Valencia groves continue to be pulled out of production in

response to market pressure and expanding development.

The all orange forecast for Texas, at 1.53 million boxes (65,000 tons), is 1 percent less than the October 1 forecast and

3 percent below the 2002-03 season. The early-midseason orange forecast is unchanged at 1.30 million boxes

(55,000 tons). The Valencia orange forecast is lowered to 230,000 boxes, 8 percent below the October 1 forecast but

5 percent higher than the previous season. Crop quality and size are reported as excellent. Arizona’s all orange forecast is

unchanged at 470,000 boxes (17,000 tons).

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2003-04 season is forecast at 1.53 gallons per box at

42.0 degrees Brix, down from last month’s projection of 1.55 and slightly below last season’s final estimate of 1.54

gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.47 gallons, down from 1.49 for the 2002-03 crop. 

Valencia’s are projected to yield 1.60 gallons as compared to 1.61 gallons for last season. All projections of yield assume

that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on January 12, 2004.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ............................................................................................. 5

Crop Comments .................................................................................... 14

Crop Summary ...................................................................................... 7

Information Contacts ................................................................................ 18

Hay Stocks ......................................................................................... 6

Papayas ........................................................................................... 4

Potatoes ........................................................................................... 4

Reliability ........................................................................................ 17

Weather Summary .................................................................................. 14

U.S. Weather Maps ................................................................................. 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 4 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2002-2004

Seasonal

Group

and

State

Area

Yield Production

Planted Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring 1

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

8.5

6.1

14.6

7.6

19.0

30.0

21.5

8.5

19.0

13.0

88.6

8.5

5.7

14.2

8.5

5.8

14.3

7.6

19.0

28.6

20.3

8.3

17.0

12.5

84.7

8.5

5.5

14.0

310

240

282

275

440

280

280

280

175

240

288

290

250

274

2,430

1,776

4,206

2,106

7,695

7,883

5,985

1,898

3,570

2,040

23,294

2,635

1,392

4,027

2,090

8,360

8,008

5,684

2,324

2,975

3,000

24,433

2,465

1,375

3,840

 1 2003 revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2002 2003

2002 2003 2002 2003

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Nov

Dec

2,155

2,150

2,375

2,210

1,490

1,580

1,575

1,345

4,135

3,765

3,180

3,010

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted January 1, 2004 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 4

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 5

 CA 5

 FL 6

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

270

32,000

128,000

1,530

161,800

250

19,500

102,000

210

121,960

520

51,500

230,000

1,740

283,760

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

5,900

46,700

5,900

58,660

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

18,300

21,100

2,150

200

41,000

112,000

1,350

154,550

270

21,000

91,000

220

112,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,500

5,500

8,430

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

220

39,000

132,000

1,300

172,520

250

19,000

118,000

230

137,480

470

58,000

250,000

1,530

310,000

1,400

16,000

24,000

100

5,200

40,000

5,300

50,600

600

2,500

6,700

9,800

3,200

23,000

26,200

1,300

10

1,200

5,760

65

7,035

9

731

4,590

9

5,339

19

1,931

10,350

74

12,374

70

803

1,182

5

198

1,985

236

2,424

23

83

314

420

106

695

801

97

8

1,538

5,040

57

6,643

10

788

4,095

9

4,902

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

956

4

188

1,645

226

2,063

16

94

261

371

114

912

1,026

106

8

1,463

5,940

55

7,466

9

713

5,310

10

6,042

17

2,176

11,250

65

13,508

63

680

1,020

3

174

1,700

212

2,089

23

94

318

435

122

874

996

59

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus &

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines

in TX. 4 Includes seedy. 5 Includes tangelos and tangors. 6 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey

varieties only.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 6 NASS, USDA

Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,

December 1 and May 1, 2001-2003

State

Dec 1 May 1

2001 2002 1 2003 2002 2003 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

2,100

223

2,280

1,961

1,990

59

16

510

1,599

2,568

1,600

1,311

4,300

5,600

4,214

1,096

137

355

105

3,450

4,213

1,833

6,989

3,600

4,800

776

50

90

600

2,250

1,215

5,020

3,591

3,300

1,901

2,100

8

448

8,235

4,140

7,477

1,470

288

2,384

1,513

939

4,300

1,506

110,510

1,700

203

3,000

2,235

1,560

61

10

475

1,400

2,972

1,400

1,021

3,900

4,800

4,085

709

140

264

90

2,109

4,759

1,631

6,350

4,019

3,400

881

48

55

620

2,236

785

4,300

1,832

4,500

2,550

2,200

9

400

5,800

3,566

10,803

1,200

281

1,929

1,620

934

3,600

1,250

103,692

1,764

280

2,700

2,048

1,841

79

12

434

1,494

2,772

1,797

1,561

3,695

5,600

5,035

937

145

377

81

1,872

3,567

1,125

7,188

3,986

5,244

857

63

96

525

2,430

1,625

4,690

2,504

3,994

2,395

2,440

9

601

7,210

3,830

9,910

1,495

332

2,515

1,620

957

3,110

1,910

110,752

650

28

280

232

535

9

5

90

350

444

355

287

1,050

1,040

943

200

25

62

31

811

680

390

1,021

845

1,280

111

9

15

65

600

158

1,050

551

500

183

550

2

110

1,900

809

1,625

210

87

411

170

205

1,350

180

22,494

246

45

640

200

360

14

4

80

230

673

285

96

1,100

1,150

552

186

39

55

21

480

925

249

1,019

970

900

167

9

11

110

520

50

940

236

1,000

330

390

1

65

1,100

542

4,017

175

80

226

285

95

1,100

200

22,168

 1 Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,299.0

78,736.0

4,601.0

730.0

3,022.0

1,368.0

9,420.0

61,700.0

44,945.0

2,915.0

13,840.0

1,082.0

595.0

110.0

1,344.0

1.3

221.0

73,404.0

2,344.0

13,483.1

13,304.0

179.1

1,365.4

21.1

1,406.1

337.5

246.0

1,275.0

14.6

88.6

64.2

1,107.6

95.6

43,464.0

14.2

4,688.0

71,139.0

6,528.0

63,342.0

23,578.0

39,764.0

2,224.0

620.0

2,997.0

339.0

7,798.0

343.0

52,839.0

36,541.0

2,869.0

13,429.0

1,068.0

583.0

107.0

1,312.0

1.2

212.0

72,321.0

2,197.0

12,058.0

11,880.0

178.0

1,347.9

996.8

416.2

15.6

1,346.9

328.5

237.0

5.9

0.2

28.7

78.2

1,250.3

14.3

84.7

59.3

1,092.0

15.8

92.4

0.4

14.0

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop

year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 8 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.9

142.2

16.2

2.48

3.24

2.03

65.0

18.5

6,645

27.3

52.7

10.4

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.7

1,416

17.9

723

3,159

949

1,286

33.4

1,213

725

719

1,157

22.7

34.5

1,997

1,115

1,672

1,584

1,030

1,470

37,500

1,903

89

367

282

288

324

377

113

172

274

276,087

10,113,887

105,864

157,123

76,307

80,816

144,649

11,450

199,157

9,254

411,237

3,552

2,336,526

1,707,069

96,637

532,820

1,512,250

6,694.0

10,426

77,372

4,144,150

1,139

272,555

2,417,565

2,665,226

18,224.0

17,795.0

429.0

30,605

34,368

831,204

174

22,515

5,202

2,442

673

8,700

6,000

54,565.1

6,924

459,045

4,027

24,433

19,199

411,386

1,778

15,921

5,000

3,840

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop

year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 9 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

 Ton

 "

 "

 "

 "

 "

 "

 1,000 Lbs

 Ton

 Lb

 Ton

 "

 Lbs

 1,000 Lbs

 Ton

 "

 "

 Lb

 Ton

 Lb

 "

 Ton

 Gal

2,424

1

801

12,374

97

420

70

8,555.6

90.0

19,500.0

7,364.0

103.0

45,900.0

2,575.4

868.5

171.0

15.7

1,090,000

19.5

172,900

303,000

282.0

1,393

2,063

1,026

11,545

106

371

59

9,351.6

90.4

6,752.4

115.0

2,618.1

933.3

190.0

14.7

1,000,000

35.0

263,900

180,000

315.0

1,239

2,089

996

13,508

59

435

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop

year. 2 Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,144,450

31,863,670

1,861,980

295,420

1,222,970

553,620

3,812,180

24,969,370

18,188,790

1,179,670

5,600,910

437,870

240,790

44,520

543,900

530

89,440

29,705,860

948,590

5,456,480

5,384,000

72,480

552,560

8,540

569,030

136,580

99,550

515,980

5,910

35,860

25,980

448,230

38,690

17,589,450

5,750

1,897,190

28,789,240

2,641,820

25,633,870

9,541,780

16,092,090

900,030

250,910

1,212,860

137,190

3,155,770

138,810

21,383,410

14,787,780

1,161,060

5,434,580

432,210

235,930

43,300

530,950

490

85,790

29,267,590

889,100

4,879,750

4,807,720

72,030

545,480

403,390

168,440

6,310

545,080

132,940

95,910

2,390

60

11,600

31,650

505,980

5,790

34,280

24,000

441,920

6,390

37,390

170

5,670

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop

year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 11 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.17

8.92

36.35

5.56

7.25

4.56

2.33

1.03

7.45

1.71

3.31

23.21

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.67

1.59

1.12

0.81

3.54

1.06

1.44

2.25

1.36

0.81

0.81

1.30

50.90

77.29

2.24

1.25

1.87

1.77

1.15

1.65

42.03

2.13

0.10

41.15

31.56

32.33

36.29

42.23

0.13

19.31

30.74

6,011,080

256,904,560

96,038,210

142,539,590

69,224,550

73,315,040

2,099,570

259,680

9,033,610

235,060

10,445,900

3,222,320

63,589,820

46,458,800

2,630,030

14,500,980

685,950

6,072,690

264,830

35,100

1,879,750

520

123,630

65,795,340

1,208,930

3,967,810

3,874,400

93,400

27,764,390

31,178,130

377,030

7,890

1,021,260

235,960

110,770

30,530

3,950

2,720

24,750

3,140

20,821,930

182,660

1,108,260

870,850

18,660,160

810

722,160

2,270

174,180

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop

year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 12 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2002 2003 2004

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,199,020

910

726,650

11,225,500

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,880,760

81,680

8,850

6,680,510

93,440

20,820

1,168,180

787,840

155,130

14,200

494,420

17,690

78,430

137,440

255,830

6,960

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

96,160

336,570

53,520

4,241,810

82,010

6,125,670

107,050

1,187,550

846,680

172,370

13,340

453,590

119,700

81,650

285,760

6,190

1,895,110

903,560

12,254,250

53,520

394,630

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop

year. 2 Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 13 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 14 NASS, USDA

December Weather Summary

Storm systems repeatedly battered the Northeast during the first 3 weeks of December, resulting in frequent bouts of heavy

rain, snow, and high winds. However, elsewhere east of the Rockies precipitation highlights were scarce. Winter wheat

areas in the lower Midwest retained plenty of moisture from previously heavy rainfall, while Southern winter grains and

cool-season pastures received enough rain to promote generally normal development. Farther west, the Plains’ winter

wheat situation remained far from ideal. Although the Plains escaped December with relatively minor temperature

fluctuations, subsoil moisture supplies were very limited. Occasional snowfall provided a boost in topsoil moisture on the

northern and central Plains, but exceptional dryness persisted on the southern High Plains, where high winds on December

15 triggered a major dust storm. Farther west, wet weather along the Pacific Coast gradually pushed inland, especially

toward month’s end. Wetness in the West Coast States, initially confined to northern and central California and the

Pacific Northwest, reached southern California’s burn areas (from the October wildfires) by December 25, triggering

several major mudslides. Farther inland, late-month storminess was more welcomed across the Intermountain West,

where reservoir storage remained significantly below normal due to a multi-year drought.

Below-normal monthly temperatures were confined to the East, where an early- to mid-December cold snap helped to

condition Florida’s citrus trees. The cold spell culminated on December 21, featuring scattered temperatures near the

freezing mark as far south as the northern Everglades. However, winter agricultural interests in central and southern

Florida incurred little, if any, damage. Mild weather overspread the East toward the end of December, while most of the

remainder of the Nation experienced a continuation of above-normal temperatures. An exception was the Southwest,

where colder air at month’s end brought the lowest temperatures in several years. On December 28 and 29, some winter

crop producers in southern California and the Southwest had to take protective measures due to temperatures ranging from

the upper 20's to near the freezing mark (32 degrees F).

December Crop Summary

In the Corn Belt, temperatures were generally above normal for the month. Precipitation was light to moderate across the

southern part of the region. Some snow cover accumulated in the first half of the month in the northern and western parts

of the region, but melted rapidly during the last week. Corn harvest was still not complete in some areas, due to muddy

fields.

The Great Plains remained dry most of the month and mild temperatures prevailed. Snow cover accumulated across the

northern and central Great Plains during the first half of the month, but melted rapidly after mid-month, leaving winter

wheat vulnerable to potential extreme cold. In the southern part of the region, dry, windy conditions depleted topsoil

moisture, stressing small grains and pastures.

Precipitation was near normal in most of the Rocky Mountain region, while temperatures were mostly above normal. 

Snow cover was spotty across the northern and central parts of the region early in the month, but became more uniform by

mid-month. However, in the last half of the month, extremely mild temperatures melted much of this snow cover leaving

the winter wheat crop exposed.

In the Southeast and Mississippi Delta, temperatures were below average for most of the month, with light to moderate

rainfall. Freezing temperatures reached as far south as the Gulf Coast. Though cotton harvest was complete in the Delta,

most States in the Southeast still had some fields unharvested. Despite dry, cold conditions in Florida, citrus and

vegetable crops were in good condition.

Along the upper and middle Atlantic Coast, temperatures were below normal most of the month but turned mild during the

final week. Precipitation was light to moderate with heavy snowfall in the Northeast. The precipitation, combined with

pre-existing soil moisture, caused some flooding and fieldwork delays.

The Pacific Northwest had above normal temperatures throughout the month. Precipitation was heavy in the coastal areas,

but light and scattered across the crop-producing areas further inland.

After warm, dry weather in California during the first week, temperatures remained normal through the end of the month. 

Precipitation was moderate, with heavy rainfall at times in the northern part of the State. Cotton harvest was completed

after mid-month and plowdown activities were well underway. Citrus and vegetable crop harvest was active and pasture

condition improved with adequate rainfall.

Winter Potatoes: Production for 2004 is forecast at 3.84 million cwt, down 5 percent from a year ago and 9 percent

below 2002. Harvested acreage in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is estimated at 14,000 acres, down

2 percent from 2003, while the average yield is forecast at 274 cwt per acre, 8 cwt below last year. Harvest is underway in

California’s Kern County and proceeding normally. In Florida, mostly mild, dry fall weather provided good conditions for

crop development.

Spring Potatoes: Production for 2003 is revised to 24.4 million cwt, up 10 percent from the May forecast and 5 percent

above 2002. Harvested area totaled 84,700 acres, down 2 percent from a year ago, while the average yield of 288 cwt per

acre increased 17 cwt from 2002. 

Spring potato production increased 47 percent from 2002 in Texas and 9 percent in California on the strength of higher

average yields. Florida’s crop of 8.01 million cwt was up 2 percent from 2002. Production in North Carolina is off

17 percent and Arizona’s potato production is 1 percent below a year ago.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 15 NASS, USDA

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.01 million pounds for December, 5 percent lower than last

month and 20 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,210 acres, 7 percent below last month but 3 percent more

than December 2002. Harvested area totaled 1,345 acres, 15 percent below both last month and last December. Weather

conditions were variable during December with cooler temperatures and shorter days slowing crop progress. Soil moisture

was adequate in non-irrigated orchards.

Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 2.09 million tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but 1 percent

above last season’s final utilization. Florida’s grapefruit forecast, at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons), is 2 percent

lower than the December forecast but 3 percent above last season’s final utilization. The white grapefruit forecast is

reduced by 1 million boxes to 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), down 6 percent from the December forecast and

1 percent below last season. The above average rate of growth observed earlier this season has slowed and is now below

average. As a result, fruit size is expected to be smaller than previously estimated. Fruit droppage is expected to be

average. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), remains unchanged but 7 percent

above last season’s final utilization. The growth pattern is also similar to last season when sizes were above normal early

in the season and then dropped off. Droppage rates are expected to be near normal levels.

California’s grapefruit production forecast is 5.20 million boxes (174,000 tons), 5 percent below the October forecast and

7 percent below the 2002-03 season. Harvest is underway and quality is reported as good to very good. The forecast for

Texas grapefruit is unchanged at 5.30 million boxes (212,000 tons). Harvest is underway with quality and size reported as

excellent. Arizona’s grapefruit forecast is 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), 11 percent above the October 1 forecast but

23 percent below the 2002-03 season. Harvest is underway with good sizes and quality expected. Arizona’s grapefruit

producing areas continue to be affected by urbanization.

Lemons: The 2003-04 U.S. lemon crop is 996,000 tons, up 1 percent from the October 1 forecast but down 3 percent

from last season’s final utilization. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (874,000 tons), unchanged from

the previous forecast but 4 percent below the 2002-03 season. Harvest is active in all areas with reported quality ranging

from good to excellent. Arizona’s 2003-04 lemon forecast, at 3.20 million boxes (122,000 tons), is up 7 percent from both

the previous forecast and the previous season. Harvest is underway with fair quality and good sizes being reported.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2003-04 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), 45 percent less than last

season’s utilized production and the smallest harvest since the 1965-66 season. Average fruit per tree is down 52 percent,

as a result, average fruit sizes at harvest are near the largest of the 10 season series. Fruit droppage is below average and

near the lowest in the series.

Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is unchanged at 435,000 tons but is up 17 percent from last

season’s final utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop, at 6.70 million boxes (318,000 tons), is unchanged

from the previous forecast but is 22 percent above last season’s utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Harvest of Fallglo

tangerines is complete. Sunburst harvest is underway and Honey tangerine harvest began at a faster pace than last season. 

Average fruit size is the largest of the last 10 seasons and droppage is expected to be slightly less than average. The

California tangerine forecast, at 2.50 million boxes (94,000 tons), is unchanged from both the previous forecast and last

season’s final utilization. Harvest is underway and overall quality is reported as good to excellent. Arizona’s forecast is

600,000 boxes (23,000 tons), unchanged from the previous estimate but 40 percent above last season.

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged from October

but 8 percent above last season’s final utilization. If attained, the crop would be the third lowest since the freeze affected

1989-90 harvest. Fruit droppage is near normal but fruit per tree is 22 percent above last season. Fruit size is below

average.

Florida Citrus: December was mostly dry with moderate temperatures. Mid-December temperatures dropped to the high

20's and low 30's for very short durations. No reports of loss or damage were recorded. Most stations reported variable

amounts of rainfall, from trace amounts to about eight inches in isolated areas. Some growers halted irrigation to induce

light tree stress as a preventative measure for protection from cold weather later in the season. Citrus crops and trees in all

areas made excellent progress with no major problems reported. Good to excellent fruit sizes were reported. Growers

conducted typical winter cultural practices including weed and cover crop control, dead tree removal and replacement, and

hedging in southern areas. By months end, all fresh fruit packinghouses were packing Navel, Hamlin, and Pineapple

oranges, Temples, white and colored grapefruit, and Sunburst and Honey tangerines. Processors were open for

packinghouse eliminations and field run early oranges. Harvest labor was reported as adequate for the large early-mid

crop.

Texas Citrus: Harvest is well underway for the 2003-04 season for most crops. Recent rains improved the outlook for

this year’s crop. Quality and size are reported as excellent. Some problems are reported with Rust Mite and Blackfly.

California Citrus: Cool temperatures improved external color of early citrus varieties. Navel and Mandarin orange

harvest continued. December rains slowed Navel picking but enhanced fruit size. Overall quality was reported as

excellent. Lemon harvest was steady, with most volume coming out of the Central Valley and desert areas. Pummelo

harvesting continued in the Central Valley. Oro Blanco grapefruit were harvested in the Central and Coachella valleys.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities, including pruning, soil amendments, weed control,

and cover crop planting continued in tree fruit orchards and vineyards. Dormant spraying of stone fruit orchards continued

in the southern areas. Removal of orchards and vineyards continued throughout the State with brush and stumps piled for

burning or chipping. Late picking of Christmas Rose, Emperor, and Red Globe table grapes neared completion. Harvest

of kiwifruit and pomegranates were complete by mid-month. Freezing temperatures during the middle of the month ended

the persimmon harvest. Ground was prepared for new blueberry plantings in the Selma district. Bareroot and strawberry
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 16 NASS, USDA

nursery stock digging began. Walnut orchards were gleaned. Pecan harvesting continued throughout the month. Freezing

weather insured dormancy in pistachio orchards. Some Zutano avocados were picked as maturity improved.

Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 111 million tons on December 1, 2003, up 7 percent from

the previous year. Disappearance of hay from May 2003 - December 2003 totaled 68.5 million tons, compared to 69.8

million tons for the same period a year ago. Disappearance is down from last year due to improved pasture conditions,

which decreased the need for supplemental hay feeding.

Thirty of the 48 reporting States had higher hay stocks than last year. Most of the States reporting an increase in stocks

compared to last year were located in the northern and central Rocky Mountains, northern and central Great Plains, eastern

Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, and the Southeast. Stocks were significantly higher in Virginia and North Carolina, due to a sharp

increase in production during 2003.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 17 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which

produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit

per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to

develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a

quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September

for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and

Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the

Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published

January 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in

September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including

information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization

and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean

Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the

final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing

recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 6.1 percent. However, if you exclude the

five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.4 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the

current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 6.1 percent, or 4.4 percent

excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed

10.5 percent, or 7.7 percent excluding freeze seasons.

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

444,000 tons (387,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 106,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (106,000 tons to

739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above

14 times (below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1

forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2004 18 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact

for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 10, 2004.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color,

national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all

prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program

information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400

Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal

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Ensuring a Healthy Food Supply

February 19-20, 2004

 Crystal Gateway

 Marriott Hotel

 Arlington, Virginia

Shoppers demand affordable food that’s safe, healthy

and right for their family’s diet. Foreign consumers,

too, have high standards for American-grown foods.

Meeting their expectations poses challenges for

farmers and ranchers, the food industry and

government.

At Agricultural Outlook Forum 2004, you will hear

about the latest developments in food safety, health

concerns and innovative products. The program also

features in-depth analysis of 2004 commodity

planting, trade and market prospects. And you will

receive new 10-year commodity projections from

USDA.

Networking opportunities abound at this popular

event. Register online today. For program updates,

send your name and e-mail address to

agforum@oce.usda.gov.

 www.usda.gov/oce agforum@oce.usda.gov (877) 891-2208 toll free