APPLES, COMMERCIAL 1/

INDICATED
1984
+ MILLION POUNDS

ARK 10.0 22.0 24.0
CALIF 480.0 460.0 510.0
COLO 40.0 85.0 65.0
CONN 55.0 44.0 40.0
DEL 14.5 13.5 13.5
GA 15.0 20.0 45.0
IDAHO 126.0 128.0 110.0
ies 88.0 90.0 94.0
IND z 77.0 56.0 64.0
(OWA : 1.5 12.0 6.0
KANS 3 12.5 13.5 9.0
KY + 12.0 14.0 14.0
MAINE 89.0 84.0 80.0
MD 80.0 70.0 72.0
MASS 100.0 97.0 98.0
MICH 980.0 750.0 600.0

1/ IN ORGHARDS OF 100 OR MORE BEARING AGE TREES.
2/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD
(MILLION POUNDS): UNITED STATES 1982-13.8, 1983-21.1.

PAPAYAS ~ HAWAIT

7 FORECAST
Hy 1984

1,000 POUNDS

3,690 2,090 2,585 4,744 5,800
5,100

CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-JUN

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SWEET CHERRIES: The U.S. forecast of 181 thousand tons (164 thousand metric

tons) is 1 percent more than 1983 and 36 percent more than
1982. Washington, New York, Utah and Idaho experienced decreased prospects.
The Pacific Coast States expect 138 thousand tons compared with 149 thousand
tons in 1983. Harvest {fs complete in California, where good quality was
reported. Cherries are developing normally in Oregon but are 10 days to 2
;weeks late. Washington experienced a preharvest rain, which caused some
damage. Harvest should start in New York about July 9. Harvest fs just
starting in Michigan.

APRICOTS: The forecast continues at 124 thousand tons (112 thousand metric

tons), 30 percent above last year. California, at 120 thousand
tons, is unchanged from last month but 32 percent higher than the 1983 crop.
Utah, at 700 tons, is one-half of last year while Washington, at 3200 tons, is
up 19 percent from 1983.

Hot weather in California has advanced maturity but has not caused quality
problems. The crop is very clean with no shothole or brown rot reported.
Harvest should be complete by the third week of duly, 7-10 days ahead of
normal. The Blenheim and Modesto varieties are already harvested, with
Pattersons currently being picked and Tiltons to start very soon.

NECTARINES: The California forecast of 170 thousand tons (154 thousand metric

tons) is unchanged from last month and is 9 percent less than last
year. Harvest should be completed about August 20, seven to ten days ahead of
normal. The crop fs maturing rapidly due to the hot weather. The varieties
currently being harvested are Firebright, Early Sun Grand, Spring Red, and May
Grand.

DRIED PRUNE

: California's forecast, is unchanged from last month at 140

thousand tons (127 thousand metric tons), and is 3 percent below
Tast year. Fruit size is generally good. Hot weather has caused some end
cracking. Insect and wind damage have been generally light.

PLUM

California production is forecast at a record high 210 thousand tons
(191 thousand metric tons), unchanged from the June 1 forecast and 33
percent more than 1983. About 45 percent of the crop has been harvested.
Although size is small, eating quality is excellent. Market demand is fair.

ALMONDS: The California forecast is a record high 520 million pounds (236

thousand metric tons), up 16 percent from Tast month, more than twice
as large as the small 1983 crop and 27 percent more than the previous record
high crop set in 1981.

Nut sets are extremely heavy in all major producing counties. The Thompson
variety is carrying the heaviest set per tree while NePlus and Peerless
varieties have some of the lightest sets this year. The set per tree in the
San Joaquin Valley is a record high while the Sacramento Valley set is
slightly below the record large 1981 level. Limb breakage and reports of
trees splitting apart have been noted as some trees have not been able to
support the weight. Nut sizes are not as big as the extremely large sizes
harvested JTast year, but are near the ten year average nut sfze. Bearing
acreage in 1984 increased 4 percent to 370 thousand acres. Development of the
crop is one to two weeks ahead of normal which indicates an early harvest.

WALNUTS: The first California forecast is for 210 thousand tons (191 thousand

metric tons), 6 percent higher than the 1983 crop, but 10 percent
below the record high 1982 production. Crop quality appears good as blight
and codling moth have not been a problem this year. Nut size ts also good but
sets of some varieties are inconsistent.

ORANGES: The final 1983-84 forecast for U.S. all oranges is 169 million boxes

6.57 million metric tons), down 2 percent from June 1 and 25
percent less than last season. U.S, Valencia production is expected to total
63.3 million boxes (2.47 million metric tons}, down 5 percent from last month
and 42 percent below the 1982-83 tota?. The Florida Valencia crop is forecast
at 47.0 million boxes, down 4 percent from last month and 32 percent less than
the 1982-83 crop. The California Valencia crop forecast is for 15.0 million
boxes, off 6 percent from June 1 and 58 percent below last season.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CHERRIES

PRODUCTION

CROP AND
TOTAL wv

IDAHO : 2,700 2,200 2,600
MICH t 31,000 18,000 30,000
MONT : 3,400 1,800 2,100
NY : 3,500 3,200 2,800
ORES : 35,000 45,000 37,000
PA 2/ : 600 goo ° 900
UTAH 2,100 4,400 4,200
WASH : 66,000 89,000 65,000
us + 155,700 179,700 180,600
: MILLION POUNDS
TART 1

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD: US SWEET CHERRIES
(TONS) 1982-21,9190, 1983-12,435; U S TART CHERRIES (MILLION POUNDS)

1982-66.0, 1983-1.0.

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

AREA PLANTED, POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUF SEASONAL GROUP
‘AND AND 1984
STATE
1,000 ACRES 7000 ACRES.
WINTER :
: 7.3 75
TOTAL NEBR : 7.6 8.4
NEV : 12.0 10.0
SPRING t N Y-LONG IS : 16.5 14.0
. ~UPSTATE : 25.5 27.0
TOTAL 82.1 86.3 N DAK + 132.0 136.0
OHIO : 9.5 9.7
SUMMER OREG-MALHEUR CO: 9.2 10.0
~OTHER CO : 40.0 46.0
TOTAL 104.1 Wt. PA : 22.0 22.0
RI ’ 2.8 2.6
FALL S_DAK : 15.5 15.0
CALIF 19.0 19.6 UTAH : 6.0 5.8
COLO 44.5 52.0 2 VT : 4 3
CONN 1.4 1.5 22 WASH : 103.0 113.0
IDAHO-10 SW CO 25.0 28.0 :: WIS : 63.0 61.0
-OTHER CO 290.0 302.0 2: WYO : 5.4 3.3
(ND 3.2 3.6 :
MAINE 95.0 94.0 TOTAL 1,072.7 1,119.8
MASS 3.4 3.4 : .
MICH 43,0 45.0 us 1 1,270.4 1,330.4

iva ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR caRRieo FORWARD FROM | EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY (CONTINUED)
(METRIC UNITS)

INDICATED

cRoP 1983: INDICATED : 1983: :
> 1984: : OUND, : JUL,
: 1984": 1984
METRIC TONS .
OATS > 1.89 2.02 6 925 570 6 600 630
BARLEY : 2.87 2.95 11 067 880 13 558 690
WINTER WHEAT > 2.81 2.66 54.112 770 53 690 160 55 027 590
RYE : 1.90 1.96 688 780 759 570
POTATOES :

SUMMER : 20.93 23.54 847 170 1 027 200

FALL 1/ : 31.03 13 184 140

TOTAL 1/ : 29.80 14 962 570
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO :

TYPES 11-14 : 2.25 2.24 372 530 358 670
APPLES, COM'L : 3771 370 3.719 210
PEACHES : 811 790 «1:146 220 1:135 110
PEARS : 702 800 623 240
SWEET CHERRIES 2/ : 163 020 169 280 163 840
TART CHERRIES 2/ + 70 130 139 660 139 620
APRICOTS : 86 270 112 400 112 400
NECTARINES (CALIF) 168 740 154 220 154 220
PLUMS (CALIF) 143 340 190 510 190 510
ORIED PRUNES (CALIF) 131 540 127 010 127 010
ALMONDS (CALIF 108 860 204 120 235 870
WALNUTS (CALIF 180 530 190 510

CITRUS FRUITS 3/ 1982-83 1983-84 1983-84

ORANGES 8 630 960 6 686 860 6 571 650
GRAPEFRUIT 2 219 880 1 965 870 1 964 960
LEMONS 859 100 723 930 733 910

1/ YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1984 TO BE RELEASED OCT 11, 1984. 2/ ESTIMATES
IN JUN 17 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECASTS IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF LATE JUNE.
3/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE
COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PEACHES

PRODUCTION

CROP peeeenneen penne enn nen e eee n eee wee ween aaennnn nee
AND : TOTAL 17

STATE eenenen enn nn nnn INDICATED

1983 z 1984

ALA

ARK

CAL 4 F- ~FREESTONE
COL

a2ue-
-
Gu
ae
°°
‘

=RUN

nN
u
BISNN=SUN

:

CONN 2/
DEL 2/

is
sO=HNIaNG

=e

Zz
fo
i
~<

=
S
wis

-@
RouN

Rao--

Ro-
EGNua-SSuo nnoaadiu

xn
rs

8959000 00005555505 00 NUSUSDUS505

=z
°

<
>

PUPMAT SOME, RREPROT NM ar ee TOT NTR
SOOUOUS COONS DONO OUOON@LNOOUWSCOOS
uw

SUUeNn
R-NOUOSUEY BHRGAGU—oTUN

NN

TOTAL ABOVE : 1,191.5 1,170. 1,552.5
t
CLINGSTONE 3/ +
CALIF : 1,102.0 619.0 950.0
ALL

:
us + 2,293.5 1,789.7 2,502.5

vA INCLUDES” UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (MILLION POUNDS):
UNITED STATES, EXCLUDING CALIF CLINGSTONE PEACHES, 1982-24.7; 1983-37.5.

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

3/ CALIF CLINGSTONE IS OVER THE SCALE TONNAGE AND INCLUDES CULLS AND CANNERY
DIVERSIONS (MILLION POUNDS): 1982-159.0.

47 NO SIGNIFICANT COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION DUE TO FROST. —

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX

APPLES weceeeeee

BARLEY .

CHERRIES wevcsceee cree serene cnceeneeeeer rete eee t vest enesttent ter etiee B- 9

CITRUS FRUITS co cee cece eee n teeter eee e tenner erent eet nese eeeeteene B- 8

CROP PROSPECTS MAPS wecseccseeveccenevsenereenesseet ears tenner enesage A- 7

MISCELLANEQUS FRUITS AND NUTS co cceceeecee sees eee eeee sete eeteeeeeeee B- 7

DATS Lecce cece cece ete e eter cette tenet tent eee et eee ee Eee eee tee Be 1

PAPAYAS, HAWAIT coc ce ese c cece tee e tere teen ee rect eee teens tnneteeeneees Be 5

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAPS ..

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION TABLE .... ve eeeee B- 2

POTATOES wececcsecccsccneneceteseesscete anes sents eee sneer nensvensenns B- 9

POTATOES, FALL, PERCENT PLANTED BY TYPES AND CERTIFIED SEED .......0. B-11

RYE ce cev eect cent ener terete ence eet eeeteereteesteencesentoeeessserses Be 4

TOBACCO, FLUE-CURED .c cece esse cence eee ett e eet e etter eet nee eeteeerteee B- 4

US SUMMARY ..

WHEAT, BY CLASSES ....

Peete recent eee ereneeee B- 3

WHEAT, WINTER wcssscscccacecrccescevacceeset eee eseteen eset eeeesseenes B- 3

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1984-420-929:316-SRS

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B~12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT Vv

PRODUCTION
BOXES

UTILIZED INDICATED

PRODUCTION
TON EQUIVALENT

TILIZED INDICATED

1981-82 : 1982-83 1983-84

1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS

ORANGES, EARLY MID:
& NAVEL 3/:
ARIZ 4a/s 900 1,050 550 34 39 21
CALIF 4/: 26,500 40,200 33,700 994 1,508 1,264
FLA 4/: 74,000 70,200 69,700 3,330 3,159 3,137
TEX 4A/: 3,610 3,590 2,200 153 152 94
us > 105,010 115,040 106,150 4,511 - 4,858 4,516
ORANGES, VALENCIA :
ARIZ : 2,150 2,750 1,300 81 103 49
CALIF 3 15,400 35,900 15,000 578 1,346 563
FLA 2 51,800 69,300 47,000 2,331 3,118 2,415
TEX 4/: 2,330 2,090 30 99 89 1
us 3 71,680 110,040 63,330 3,089 4,656 2,728
ALL ORANGES 2
ARIZ 2 3,050 3,800 1,850 115 142 70
CALIF : 41,900 76,100 48,700 1,572 2,854 1,827
FLA : 125,800 139,500 116,700 5,661 6,277 5,252
TEX Al: 5,940 5,680 2,230 252 241 95.
us : 176,690 225,080 169,480 7,600 9,514 7,244
TEMPLES 3
FLA 4/: 3,200 4,700 2,900 144 211 131
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE z
SEEDLESS
FLA 27,300 21,800 23,000 1,160 926 978
GRAPEFRUIT, PINK
SEEDLESS
FLA 14,800 12,800 13,400 629 544 570
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
FLA 6,000 4,800 4,500 255 204 191
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
RAZ 2,400 2,700 2,100 77 87 67
CALLE .
DESERT 3,400 4,100 4,000 109 131 128
OTHER AREAS 2,600 3,200 3,100 87 107 104
TOTAL 6,000 7,300 7,100 196 238 232
FLA 48,100 39,400 40,900 2,044 1,674 1,739
TEX 13,900 11,200 3,200 556 448 128
us 70,400 60,600 53,300 2,873 2,447 2,166
TANGERINES
ARIZ 750 880 950 28 33 36
CALIF 1,730 2,120 1,900 65 80 71
FLA 2,500 2,250 2,000 119 107 95
us 4,980 5,250 4,850 212 220 202
LEMONS
ARIZ 6,300 5,050 4,000 239 191 152
CALIF 18,500 19,900 17,300 703 756 657
us 24,800 24,950 21,300 942 ‘947 809
TANGELOS
FLA 5,100 3,800 3,600 229 171 162

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS WITH YEAR HARVEST 1S COMPLETED.

2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES-CALIF & ARIZ-75,FLA-90,
TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF
OTHER-67, FLA-~85, TEX-80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS &
TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES- CALIF & ARIZ~75, FLA-95.

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA. EARLY AND MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGERINES IN
TEXAS.

4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT

PRODUCTION

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

33.0 34.0 23,200 15,180 12,920
96.0 89.0 5,376 6,144 5,518
39.0 44.0 72,200 58,500 61,600
66.0 76.0 65,550 40,260 52,440
39.0 29.0 81,480 117,000 89,900
39.0 40.0 2,320 2,106 1,960
34.0 35.0 45,210 30,940 30,800
67.0 68.0 53,010 55,610 61,200
46.0 44.0 67,500 64,400 70,400
51.0 47.0 43,260 49,470 49,350
38.0 36.0 3,000 1,900 3,600
41.5 38.0 458,500 448,200 418,000
31.0 36.0 23,560 16,120 18,000

30.0 41.0 19,000 7,500 12,710

43.0 42.0 5,712 5,371 5,670
49.0 50.0 22,960 35,770 40,000

MINN 75 280 «35.0 = 38.0 2,967 2/625 10,640

MISS 600 640 34.0 38.0 36,100 = 20,400.24, 320

MO 1,850 2,050 38.0 42.0 74,800 70,300 86,100

MONT 2,260 2,480 35.0 29.0 80,560 79,100 71,920

NEBR 2,300 2,300 43.0 38.0 101,500 98,900 87,400

NEY 8 8 70.0 70.0 1,050 560 560

Nou 38 40 40.0 41.0 1,800 1,520

N MEX 470 460 29.0 26.0 12,750

NY 160 170 46.0 = 46.0 5,438

ne 470 600 34.0 40.0 23,400

N DAK 155 580 31.0 + 33.0 4,760

OHIO 1,200 1,100 49.0 45.0 51,600

OKLA 4,300 5,300 35.0 36.0 227,700

OREG 1,000 1,050 62.0 62.0 59,400

PA 200 220 38.0 38.0 8,208

sc 375 380 28.0 37.0 19,800

S DAK 1,250 1,550 41.0 37.0 36,300

TENN 600 520 33.0 38.0

TEX 4,600 5,100 35.0 2

UTAH 190 195 35.0

vA 340 300, 42.0

WASH 2,500 2,390 65.0

WVA 9 10 42.0

49.0

WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

WINTER : SPRING

DURUM

WHITE

1,000 BUSHELS

1981 21,112,085 678,017 306,955 463,726 183,040 41,534 2,785,357
1982 : 1,243,598 588,869 241,093 492,673 145,863 52,871 2,764,967
1983: 1,192,386 506,491 289,427 312,674 72,979 45,867 2,419,824
1984 1/: 1,186,790 540,187 294,941

1/ {INDICATED JULY 1,1984,

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


OATS: The 1984 oats crop forecast, at 455 million bushels (6.60 million metric

tons), is 5 percent below last year. The decrease in production re-
sulted from an 11 percent reduction in harvested acres, which more than offset
a 3.6 bushel increase in average yield, from a year ago. U.S. average yield,
forecast at 56.2 bushels per acre, is up from 52.6 bushels last year.

In the two leading States--South Dakota and Minnesota--development was
slower than normal because of tate seedings, but condition is good due to
better weather in June. Some areas report surplus moisture. Generally, the
crop is in good condition in most States.

BARLEY: Production of barley is forecast at a record high 623 million bushels
3.6 miltion metric tons), up 23 percent from last year. Average
yield, at 54.8 bushels per acre, is up 2.5 bushels from last year but is below
the record high 57.2 bushels per acre set in 1982. The area for harvest, at
13.4 million acres (4.60 million hectares), is up 17 percent from last year
and is the highest since 1962. In North Dakota, the leading State, growing
conditions have been near ideal since the first week of June. Cool nights,
warm days, adequate or better moisture, and very few incidences of severe
weather, make for a very good barley yield. In Idaho and Washington,
development was behind normal due to the cool, wet spring weather. However,
conditions improved and the crop is catching up from its late start and good
yields are expected. In Montana, moisture is stil] short in much of the
northcentral and northeastern areas of the State. Showers greatly enhanced
yield prospects but the crop still needs additional rain to reach maturity.

In California, harvest was nearly complete by July 1. Dryland yields in
southern and south coastal areas are low, as little or no rain was received in
these areas since mid-December.

WINTER WHEAT: Production is forecast at 2.02 billion bushels (55.0 million

metric tons) as of July 1. This is up 2 percent from both 1983
and the June 1 forecast. Area for harvest is 51.1 million acres (20.7 million
hectares), up 7 percent from last year. The indicated area for harvest is 80
percent of the planted area. Producers harvested 77 percent of the planted
acres in 1983. Yields are expected to average 39.6 bushels per acre, the
second highest of record, exceeded only by the 47.8 bushel average set last
year.

Winter wheat continued in generally good condition. Combining in the 15
major producing States was 30 percent complete, equaling average progress for
July 1. Harvest was underway in the Corn Bett and had moved north to Kansas
on the Great Plains. Harvest was 90 percent and 80 percent complete in
Oklahoma and Texas, respectively, about 10 points ahead of average. Favorable
weather conditions through much of June in the Southeast allowed harvest to
near 85 percent completion by July 1. Heavy rains at mid-June caused some
lodging in portions of the western Corn Belt. .

RYE: Production forecast at 29.9 million bushels (760 thousand metric tons),

10 percent more than 1983. Area for harvest, at 958 thousand acres (388
thousand hectares), is up 7 percent from 1983. Average yield at 31.2 bushels
per acre is almost 1 bushel above the 1983 crop.

Oespite slower than average crop devefopment, South Gakota growers are
expecting a record 39.0 bushel yield. Minnesota crop yield is forecast at
33.0 bushels, up 2 bushels from 1983, Extremely good growing conditions in
North Dakota rye producing areas have led to record yield prospects. Dry
weather in Georgia through much of June allowed for ideal harvest conditions.

POTATOES: The U.S. potato crop for all seasonal groups will be harvested from
SS! W350 mitiion acres (525-thousand NeCtares) in 1984, up 5 percent
from last year and 2 percent above 1982. Area pianted is estimated at 1.33

million acres (538 thousand hectares), up 5 percent from last year and 2
percent above two years ago.

FALL POTATOES: Harvested area in 1984 is forecast at 1.09 million acres (442
thousand hectares), a gain of 4 percent from 1983 and 2 percent

above 1982. Planted area is estimated at 1.12 million acres (453 thousand

hectares), up 4 percent from last year and 1 percent above 1982 plantings.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP PROSPECTS*
July 1, 1984

(a le

=

[Z 6001 to excelent’
Fai

E& Poor

(1X) very poor
(BBB Noor taliure

iit

‘*Reelative conditions or prospects as indicated by reports from crop correspondents on ‘all crops,
USDA SRS

CROP PROSPECTS*
aS,

(1) a00 to excetert
Brew

EB Pow

(22) very oor

(EBB Neos tame

‘Relative conditions or prospects as indicated by reports {rom crop correspondents on ‘all crope’

USDA SAS.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF JULY 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based on acreage surveys
conducted around June 1 and yield surveys conducted around July 1. The
acreage estimates published in the June 28 Acreage Report and used in this
report include acres already planted at the time of the survey and acreage
intended for planting later. The July 1 yield surveys include mailed reports
from farmers for all crops and actual field observations in wheat fields.
Farmers provided appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information
for crops on their farms and for their localities. Objective yield surveys
provided small plot observations, counts and measurements in a probability
sample of wheat fields. These surveys are subject to sampling and
non-sampling type errors that are common to all surveys. More importantly,
the production forecasts are subject to change due to future weather effects
and other factors that cannot be measured currently but directly affect final
production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in
this report thg “Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past
performance, is shown below for selected crops. This is computed by
expressing the deviations between the July 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percent of the final estimate and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1964-83 twenty-year period; the square root of
the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability
statements can be made concerning expected difference in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat
production is 3.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the
current production forecast of 2,022 million bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent or approximately 67 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence Tevel) that the
difference will not exceed 5.7 percent or approximately 115 million bushels.

Also shown jn the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the July 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using winter
wheat again as an example, changes between the July ) forecast and the fina?
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 32 million bushels, ranging
from 1 million to 54 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the
final estimate 7 times and above 3 times.

RELIABILITY OF JULY 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

"TROT MEAN SQUARE ERROR TEN YEAR RECORD OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FORECAST
AND FINAL ESTIMATE

0% CONFIDENCE
LEVEL

CROP ANO :
UNIT :PERCENT:

SMALL : LARGE:FINAL:FINAL

BARLEY
WINTER WHEAT

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


AREA HARVESTED

3 YIELD

IND
1984 ¢ 1982 + 1983 1984

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
COLO : 2 2 19.0 18.0 38 38
DEL : 4 3 34.0 31.0 136 136
GA 2 70 80 21.0 22.0 1,470 1,470
(LL : 12 9 28.0 28.0 299 336
IND : 10 12 27.0 28.0 260 270
1OWA t 3 4 31.0 34.0 12 93
KANS 2 10 13 22.0 21.0 240 220
KY : 3 3 28.0 30.0 56 84
MD 3 8 7 30.0 29.0 290 240
MICK z 20 20 30.0 32.0 522 600
MINN : 160 170 31.0 33.0 3,300 4,960
mo : 2 4 24.0 25.0 72 48
NEBR ? 55 54 23.0 22.0 1,269 1,265
Nod t 13 WW 30.0 30.0 319 390
NY + 13 13 32.0 33.0 341 416
nC : 22 25 20.0 23.0 525 440
N DAK 2 135 120 32.0 33.0 2,400 4,320
OHIO to 6 6 35.0 35.0 155 210
OKLA : 30 40 26.0 25.0 736 780
OREG z 4 4 25.0 25.0 116 100
PA 3 17 19 34.0 34.0 408 578
sc 3 20 26 16.0 23.0 621 320
$_DAK 2 230 260 38.0 39.0 4,680 8,740
TEX 2 25 20 18.0 15.0 504 450
VA : 12 25 26.0 26.0 364 312
wis : 10 8 30.0 31.0 300 300
us 896 958 30.3 31.2 19,533 27,116

FLUE-CURED TOBACCO

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
TYPES 11-14 =
FLA : 7,800 7,000 2,260 2,280 20,972 17,628 15,960
GA 144,000 39,000 2,190 2,150 105,595 96,360 83,850
Nc 1267,000 265,000 1,965 1,950 669,455 524,880 516,750
sc + 54,000 49,000 2,090 2,100 124,195 112,860 102,900
vA : 37,000 36,000 1,880 1,980 86,310 69,560 71,280
us 1409,800 396,000 2,004 1,997 1,006,527 621,288 790,740

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


JUNE WEATHER SUMMARY

Early in the month a near stationary ridge of high pressure was established
over southeastern United States causing warm, moist air to flow northward
through the Plains and finally over all of the East. Ouring the same perfod
an unusually cold mass of air moved over the Rockies and into the northern
Plains. Severe weather and heavy downpours of rain resulted and caused
widespread flooding through the lower Missouri River from South Dakota to
northern Missouri. The river was out of its banks through this area and many
newly planted fields were flooded or washed out. Rain was less than normal
from south central Texas to Michigan. The eastern Corn Belt, as well as parts
of Texas, began to show moisture stress. Moisture was also short in parts of
the Southeast and mid-Atlantic States but rains began during the last part of
the month. Western Texas experienced beneficial showers during most of the
month. Average temperatures were cooler than normal over the Rockies and
Plateau, parts of the northern Plains, and the southern coast and Florida.
Averages were 2-4 degrees warmer than normal from Illinois into the
mid-Atlantic States. (Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather
Facility).

ROW CROP PROGRESS

Persistent heavy rains lodged small grains, eroded fields, and flooded low
lying areas in the western Corn Belt through much of June. Orying conditions
allowed increased replanting of damaged fields in this area late in the
month. Texas High Plains cotton received beneficial rains throughout the
month. Unusually hot, dry conditions delayed soybean planting and stressed
corn in the South at midmonth. However, beneficial showers relieved most of
the stress on corn and spurred planting of soybeans late in the month. Hot,
dry weather increased irrigation requirements in California, and caused
further deterioration of rangeland grasses over the Southwest.

Corn planting was 90 percent finished by early June, compared with the 91
percent average. Planting was 26 points slower than normal in Pennsylvania, 6
points behind in Illinois, and 5 points behind norma) in Kansas, Missouri,
Ohio, and South Dakota. However, producers were able to get into the fields
and by midmonth planting was virtually complete. Corn was 2 percent silked
versus 3 percent for the average at the end of June. Stands were silking as
far north as Virginia. Many fields were in the dough stage and early-planted
fields reached the dent stage across the South by the month's end. Showers
replenished soil moisture and relieved moisture stress in this region in late
June. Corn generally rated fair to mostly good throughout the Nation.

At the beginning of June, soybean seeding was 51 percent complete, 9
percentage points less than normal. Progress trailed the average in all
States except Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, and Mississippi.
Planting was 95 percent complete in the 18 major producing States at the
beginning of July, equal to the average. Seeding was virtually complete in
the eastern Corn Belt by the end of June. However, wet conditions slowed
planting in the western Corn Belt and previous dry conditions slowed progress
in the Southeast until Tate in the month. Planting of double-cropped soybean
acreage gained momentum as small grain harvesting neared completion across
Portions of the South. Soybean stands were in fair to mostly good condition
with T percent of the crop blooming by July 1.

In early June, cotton planting was 80 percent complete, trailing the 84
percent average. By midmonth, planting was complete in all States except
Georgia, Oklahoma, and Texas. Planting advanced rapidly in Oklahoma and Texas
after showers moved across the Plains relieving dry conditions late in the
month. Squaring was underway on 44 percent of the acreage by July ‘t, slightly
behind the 45 percent average. Progress ranged from no acreage squared in
Oklahoma to 94 percent squared in Arizona. Plants bloomed and set bolls on 10
percent of the acreage, mainly across the extreme South as the month ended.
Stands were rated fair to mostly good in all producing regions as June ended.

Sorghum planting was 53 percent finished at the beginning of June, ahead of
the 50 percent average. Progress was 20 percentage points behind in Nebraska
and 18 points behind in South Dakota. In contrast, Texas producers were 15
points ahead of normal. June rains continued to slow planting in the western
Corn Belt. Planting advanced to 96 percent completion as June ended, compared
with the 94 percent average. Only South Dakota lagged the average. Wet condi-
tions left producers in that State with 79 percent of the acreage planted, 19
points sTtower than normal. By the month's end, 55 percent of the crop was
heading in Texas, 43 percent was turning color, and 25 percent was mature.
Harvesting was underway in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES

PRODUCTION

SEASONAL GROUP +: AREA HARVESTED
ND

STATE

1983

4,000 ACRES

3 1,000 CWT
WINTER 5
TOTAL Vs V1.3 13.0 194 220 2,263 2,193 2,862
SPRING :
:
TOTAL Vs 79.6 84.7 230 274 20,964 «18,338 23,248
:
SUMMER :
ALA : 9.3 110 110 1,290 1,023 913
CALLE : 8.0 320 325 3,066 §=.2,560 2,633
coLo 3 6.8 275 280 1,794 1,870 1,988
DEL : 5.4 185 220 1,566 999 1,210
rae : 2.3 240 245 583 552 588
(ND 3 1.5 125 120 Ate 188 216
1OWA : 1.6 110 170 308 176 255
MD : 1.8 190 190 409 342 304
MICH : 11.8 185 200 2,266 2,183 2,560
MUNN 3 Sal 260 300 1,881 1,326 1,830
NEBR : 1.0 210 180 160 210 378
NJ : 8.5 190 245 2,210 1,615 2,034
N MEX : 5.7 285 295 1,274 1,625 2,626
NC : 3.9 100 115 449 390 334
OHIO : 1.2 175 225 276 210 248
TENN : 2.5 70 85 257 175 170
TEX : 9.3 240 230 2,088 2,232 2,599
vA : 14.3 70 110 2,475 1,001 1,760
TOTAL : 100.0 187 210 © 22,770 18,677 22,646
FALL 2/3
CALIF : 19.0 19.6 410 7,585 7,790
COLO : 44.0 51.5 300 12,825 13,200
CONN : 1.4 1.5 190 369 266
IDAHO~10 SW CO: 25.0 28.0 340 8,625 8,500
“OTHER CO : 287.0 299.0 262 83,160 75,194
IND : 3.0 3.5 200 924 600
MAINE : 94.0 89.0 © 235 27,030 22,090
MASS : 3.4 2.8 190 719 646
WICH : 41.0 43.0 240 10,530 9,840
MINN : 62.5 68.6 165 11,520 10,313
MONT : 7.2 7.4 250 1,924 1,800
NEBR : 7.5 8.2 270 2,332 2,025
NEV : 12.0 10.0 310 4,095 3,720
N Y-LONG I$ : 16.3 13.8 250 5,130 4,075
-UPSTATE : 24.5 26.0 230 6,500 5,635
N DAK : 128.0 133.0 160 17,250 20,480
OHIO : 9.2 9.5 205 2,205 1,886
OREG-MALHEUR CO : 9.0 9.5 370 3,885 3,330
-OTHER CO): 39.5 45.5 440 17,220 17,380
PA : 21.5 21.5 200 . 4,935 4,300
R14 2 2.8 2.6 230 720 644
S_DAK 3 15.4 14.5 135 1,550 2,079
UTAH : 5.9 5.7 230 1,440 1,357
VT : +4 23-220 92 as
WASH 2 103.0 113.0 520 52,800 53,560
Wis : 62.0 60.0 305 22,575 18,910
wyo 2 5.3 5.2 180 1,134 954
2
TOTAL 2 1,049.8 1,092.2 277 309,134 290,662
us 2/2 1,240.7 1,297.7 266 355,131 329,870

1/ ESTIMATE FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
2/ YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1984 TO BE RELEASED OCTOBER 11, 1984.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


s Crop United States
Crop Production (Qee° far

Statistical Reporting Washington, D.C. 20250
Service
RELEASED: July 10, 1984
3:00 P.M. ET
HIGHLIGHTS

WINTER WHEAT production is forecast as of July 1, at 2.02 billion bushels (55.0

jon metric tons), 2 percent more than 1983's production of 1.99

billion bushels (54.1 million metric tons). The 90 percent confidence
interval for this production forecast is 1.91 to 2.14 billion bushels.

BARLEY production is forecast at a record high 623 million bushels (13.6 mil-
Tion metric tons), up 23 percent from last year.

OATS production is forecast at 455 million bushels (6.60 million metric tons),
5 percent less than last year and 23 percent below 1982.

APPLE production is forecast at 8.20 billion pounds (3.72 million metric tons),
percent less than last year, but 1 percent more than 1982.

PEACH production is estimated at 2.50 billion pounds (1.14 million metric
~~€ons),’ down 1 percent from June 1 but up 40 percent from last year.

PEAR production is forecast at 687 thousand tons (623 thousand metric tons), a
decrease of 11 percent from 1983 and 15 percent below 1982.

ORANGE production is forecast at 169 million boxes (6.57 million metric tons),
down 2 percent from June 1 and 25 percent less than last season. Harvest
is 95 percent complete.

POTATO area for harvest in 1984 for all seasonal groups is estimated at 1.30
“million acres (525 thousand hectares), up 5 percent from last year and 2
percent from 1982. Fall potatoes will be harvested from 1.09 million
acres (462 thousand hectares), 4 percent above last year and up 2 percent
rom 1982.

KIER IK IKI IKIK III III IIIS II III III ISI III III III ISHII III IIIS IIS IIIA IIASA.

SPECIAL NOTE

The Crop Production report, scheduled for release on August 10, 1984,
will contain updated acreages for harvest reflecting, for the first
time, changes that may have occurred due to flooding in the Western
Corn Belt.

Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports
should be directed to Crop Reporting Board Publications, Room 5829 -
South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250 (Phone (202) 447-4021).

RIKKI I IKIR III III III IIIS IIIS III IIIS IIS IS III ISI IIIA III IIA IS ISAS IIIA.

+ OO OO OF
HO OR Ob ob OF

CrPr 2-2 (7-84) _ For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


The extreme drought area includes most of Texas where pasture and range
condition is rated 46 percent of normal, the lowest percent of record for
duly 1. This compares with 75 percent a year ago and 76 percent for the
average.

FLUE-CURED TOBACCO: Production of flue-cured tobacco is expected to total 791

million pounds (359 thousand metric tons), 4 percent below
last year and 21 percent below 1982. This would place flue-cured production
at its lowest level since 1943. Production is down in all States, except
Virginia. Yield is expected to average 1997 pounds per acre, 7 pounds below
1983.

The crop in Florida got off to a slow start but responded well to warm,
wet weather the last half of June. Rains in late June and early July have
improved crop conditions in Georgia. Harvest was underway in late June in
both Georgia and Florida. Prospect improved in North Carolina with rains the
end of June. Harvest was underway around July 1 in a few scattered fields.
South Carolina's, tobacco crop was in generally good condition on July 1 having
withstood extremely wet conditions during April and May and then an extended
dry period during the first three weeks of June. Virginia's crop is reported
to be in mostly good condition despite the dry weather earlier in the season.

APPLES: The Nation's forecast, at 8.20 billion pounds (3.72 million metric
tons), is 1 percent less than last year, but 1 percent more than 1982.

The Eastern States forecast, at 3.16 billion pounds, is down 2 percent
from last year. The North Carolina crop, forecast at 375 million pounds, is
down 10 percent from 1983. Fruit set was reduced by a late frost, hail and
Poor pollination. The fruit are sizing well.

New York's forecast of 1.04 billion pounds is down 5 percent from a year
ago as cool, wet weather slowed pollination. Pennsylvania, at 450 million
pounds, is down 10 percent from 1983. Set was light this year and scab has
been a problem. Virginia, at 480 million pounds, is up 5 percent from last
year. Fruit is sizing well, and insect and disease controls have worked well.

The Central States forecast totals 1.27 billion pounds, up 7 percent from
1983. Michigan, the leading State in the region, is forecast at 800 million
pounds, up 7 percent from a year ago. It has been dry in Michigan, expecially
in the southern part, and most areas would benefit from a good rain. Ohfo is
forecast at 135 million pounds, up 35 percent from 1983.

The Western States are forecast at 3.77 billion pounds, down 3 percent
from last year. Washington is forecast at 2.90 billion pounds, down 3 percent
from 1983. Although the orchards came through the winter in good shape, the
cold, wet spring hindered pollination. Apple scab is a problem this year,
because of the rainy weather. California's forecast of 510 million pounds, is
up 11 percent from a year ago. Pollination weather was better than the last
two years. Scab, because of good spraying weather, is less of a problem this
year.

PEACHES: U.S. peach production is forecast at 2.50 billion pounds (1.14

million metric tons), down 1 percent from last month but up 40 per-
cent from last year. The Freestone crop, which excludes California Clingstone
peaches that are mostly canned, is expected to total 1.55 billion pounds (704
thousand metric tons), down 2 percent from the June 1 forecast but 33 percent
more than last year.

Production in the nine Southern States is forecast at 741 million pounds,
down 2 percent from the June 1 forecast, but two and a half times last year's
crop. Prospects improved jin .Alabama but deteriorated in South Carolina.
Labor shortages, hail, and failure of some peaches to size properly, because
of improper thinning and hot, dry weather, were the main reasons for the
decrease in South Carolina. Production of California Clingstone peaches is
expected to tota? 950 million pounds (431 thousand metric tons), unchanged
from the June 1 forecast, and 53 percent above the 1983 level. Fruit is
larger than normal and quality is good. No major problems have been reported.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Acreage in the 7 Eastern States is expected to total 158 thousand acres
for harvest this year. This continues a downward trend, 4 percent below Tast
year and 12 percent below 1982 harvested acreage. Maine's area for harvest of
89.0 thousand acres is 5 percent below 1983. Heavy rains if late June stopped
planting and caused seed to rot in low lying fields. New York acreage
decreased 1000 acres to 39.8 thousand for harvest. Several Long Island
growers quit potatoes to plant other vegetables. Pennsylvania's acreage held
at 21.5 thousand acres, the same as was harvested last year.

The 8 Central States expect to harvest 340 thousand acres of potatoes this
year, up 4 percent from last year and 9 percent above two years ago. North
Dakota, with 133 thousand acres for harvest, posted a gain of 5000 acres over
last year. Planting was interrupted by snow in April, but started and finished
ahead of normal. Crop development is ahead of last year. Minnesota growers
had a wet spring, but managed to plant 9 percent more potatoes than last
year. Harvested area is set at 68.6 thousand acres, up 10 percent from last
year.

In Michigan, area for harvest is forecast at 43.0 thousand acres, up 5
percent from last year. Dry weather in the Lower Peninsula during June is
causing concern for growers without irrigation. Although acreage is up in
most Central States South Dakota and Wisconsin are down. Wisconsin potatoes
are blooming and look good across the State; acreage dipped 3 percent to 60.0
thousand acres for harvest.

In the 9 Western States potato acreage totals 594 thousand acres for
harvest, up 7 percent from last year and 2 percent above 1982. Idaho potatoes
should be harvested from 327 thousand acres, up 5 percent from last year and 2
percent more than 1982. The larger States show acreage gains from Tast year,
while smaller States are down. Oregon, at 55.0 thousand acres for harvest is
up 13 percent; Washington is up 10 percent. Colorado increased 17 percent and
California is up 3 percent. Nevada, Utah and Wyoming are down 17, 3 and 2
Percent, respectively, from last year.

SUMMER POTATOE: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 22.6 million cwt
(1.03 million metric tons), up 21 percent from last year but
down 1 percent from the 1982 summer crop. All States, except Alabama,
Tennessee, North Carolina, and Maryland are showing gains from last year. Area
for harvest is estimated at 108 thousand acres (43.6 thousand hectares), 8 per-
cent above 1983. Yields are expected to return to a more normal level after
last years drought in the South Atlantic States. Summer yields should average
210 cwt per acre this year, up 23 cwt from last year, but 15 cwt short of the
225 cwt averaged in 1982.

California potatoes held good condition to mid-June, but hot temperatures
late in the month became worrisome. Harvest is just starting on the summer
crop. In Colorado, the late spring delayed early fields but prospects now
appear excellent. Harvest will be a Tittle late. Production in New Mexico is
expected to jump 62 percent, with harvested acreage up 56 percent. Recent
rains have helped potatoes in the Texas High Plains. Harvest shoutd start in
early July, a little behind schedule. Digging is underway across the South.
Alabama harvest will hit its peak about July 10th. Virginia's Eastern Shore
started about June 25, but Statewide yields, although better than last year,
will be poor. New Jersey potatoes are late because of delayed planting and
slow early growth. Across the mid-west a hot June followed a cool, wet
spring. In Indiana and Ohio, hot weather and drying soils may reduce yields.
In Michigan, localized rains flooded some Saginaw Bay area fields. Minnesota
potatoes are normal and look good so far. Iowa growers lost some early fields,
but the crop generally, appears fairly good.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: The July 1 pasture and range feed condition
for the 48 contiguous States is 80 percent,
8 points less than last year and 2 points below the 1973-82 average for the
date.

During the ‘month of June, condition deteriorated in 21 States, improved in
26 States, and was unchanged in 1 State. Conditions are generally good to
excellent in most parts of the country with the exception of areas in the
southern portion of the country and in northern Montana. Pasture condition is
62 percent in Arizona -- down 21 points from a year earlier. Montana's
condition, at 72 percent, is down 6 points from July 1, 1983. A smal area in
the Florida Panhandle is also showing severe drought condition.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS*
uty 1, 1984
ip

~

TO cx0a to 0 i

[77] Poor to fair ro

3 very poor 5

v0 ‘Severe drought: “As reported by

° ‘Crop Correspondents

EER) extreme drought FA
#Indicates current supply of pasture feed for grazing on non-irrigated pastures and ranges relative to that expected
from exising stands under very favorable weather conditions.

USDA SRS

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS®
ay 11963
io
GY
@ di
>
y Q

{7} Good to excotent

EQ Poor to tas

EB ver boo

[EX] Severe drought z "Ae reported by

EER cxreme cought (Crop Correspondents
‘sindicates current supply of pasture feed for grazing on non-tnaAted pustures and ranges relative to that expected -

from exishng stands under very favorable weather conditions.

USDA SAS

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PRODUCTION

BARTLETT
CALIF 314,000 259,500 275,000
OREG 70,000 63,000 41,000
WASH 141,300 140,800 95,000
TOTAL 525,300 463,300 411,000

EXCLUDING BARTLETT
CALIF 7,500 8,200 9,500
OREG 105,000 125,000 115,000
WASH 123,500 138,000 108,000
TOTAL 236,000 271,200 232,500

ALL
CALIF 321,500 267,700 284,500
COLO 2,700 5,500 4,700
CONN 1,550 1,450 1,500
MICH 12,000 8,000 10,000
NY 19,000 19,000 19,506
OREG 175,000 188,000 156,000
PA 4,600 2,700 4,100
UTAH 2,800 3,500 3,700
WASH 264,800 278,800 203,000
us 803,950 774,650 687,000

1/__ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS): U S
1982-1,220, 1983-200.

PRODUCTION

TOTAL 1/

PLUMS :
CALIF t 118,000 158,000 210,000
PRUNES (DRIED BASIS) :

CALIF : 126,000 145,000 140,000
GRAPES TABLE TYPE

CALIF 3 612,000 497,000 460,000
GRAPES WINE TYPE

CALIF 2,402,000 1,880,000 2,000,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE DRIED 2.

CALIF 292,000 394,000
GRAPES RAISIN NOT DRIED

CALIF 1,112,000 619,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE 3/

CALIF 3,062,000 2,530,000 2,600,000
ALL GRAPES

CALIF 6,076,000 4,907,000 5,060,000
APRICOTS

CALIF 111,000 91,000 120,000

UTAH 200 1,400 700

WASH 2,700 2,700 3,200

us 113,900 95,100 123,900
NECTARINES

CALIF 178,000 186,000 170,000
WALNUTS

CALIF 234,000 199,000 210,000

1,000 POUNDS

ALMONDS (SHELLED BASIS)
CALIF 347,000 240,000 520,000
1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS):
APRICOTS ~ 1982-90; GRAPES (CALIF) - 1982-690,000, 1983-145,000.
2/ ORIED BASIS; 1 TON OF RAISINS tS EQUIVALENT TO 5.24 TONS FRESH BASIS FOR
1982 AND 4.48 TONS FOR 1983.
3/ FRESH EQUIVALENT OF DRIED AND NOT DRIED. .

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 8-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250

OFFICIAL BUSINESS
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300

Te stop mating [7 or to change your
edcress [[) senc tie sheet with ine!
ftact. showing new address. to Crop
Reporting Board Pubscations. SRS.US
Dept of Agncutture, fm $629 South
Busing, 14th & independence Ave $.W.,
Wash. 0.0. 20280

POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE
Aor 101

FIRST CLASS



UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

3 AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

OATS 8 211 160 4 948 950 3 672 970 3 273 130
BARLEY : 4 216 470 4 847 380 3 936 420 4 598 900
WINTER WHEAT : 25 133 270 25 830 960 19 256 770 20 683 300
RYE 1095 500 1 196 260 362 600 387 690
POTATOES
SUMMER 42 130 44 960 40 470 43 630
FALL 1/ 434 110 453 170 424 840 442 000
TOTAL 1/ 514 120 538 400 502 100 525 170
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO
TYPES 11-14 165 840 160 260
APPLES, COM'L
PEACHES
PEARS
SWEET CHERRIES 2/
TART CHERRIES 2/
APRICOTS
NECTARINES (CALIF)
PLUMS (CALIF) : ‘

ORIED PRUNES (CALIF) :
ALMONDS (CALIF) :
WALNUTS (CALIF) :

CITRUS FRUITS 3/

GRAPEFRUIT
LEMONS

SEE FOOTNOTES ON PAGE A-5. CONTINUED

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Harvest of Valencias in Florida is 99 percent complete while California
Valencia harvest is about 50 percent complete. The U.S. all orange crop
harvest on July 1 was 95 percent complete compared with 88 percent as of July
loa year ago.

The July 1 U.S. all orange forecast has deviated from actual production by
an average of 2.16 million boxes over the past 10 seasons, ranging from no
deviation in 1978-79 to 5.78 million boxes in 1982-83.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The forecast of 1983-84 Florida FCOJ

yield continues at 1.29 gallons per
box at 42.0 degrees Brix equivalent unchanged from the June 1 projection. The
yield forecast is an estimate of the season average which will be reported at
end of the season by the Florida Citrus Processor's Association. Final season
average was 1.48305 gallons per box for 1982-83 and 1.27730 gallons per box
for 1981-82 at 42.0 degrees Brix equivalent.

GRAPEFRUIT: The final forecast for the 1983-84 crop is 53.3 million boxes

(1.96 million metric tons), fractionally lower than June 1 and 12
percent below 1982-83, Harvest is 92 percent complete. Most of the remaining
supplies will come from California.

LEMONS: The California and Arizona crop is expected to total 21.3 million
boxes (734 thousand metric tons), 1 percent above the June } forecast
but 15 percent below the 1982-83 season. Harvest is 92 percent complete.

CITRUS CROP - HARVEST AND UTILIZATION TO JULY 1

THOUSAND BOXES

ORANGES 248,281 149,067 197,348 27,732 41,711 119,755 161,466 8,014
GRAPEFRUIT:29,891 27,057 56,948 3,652 22,914 26,193 49,107 4,193
LEMONS 10,504 12,902 23,406 1,544 10,270 9,283 19,553 1,747

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


2 AREA HARVESTED

BARLEY

PRODUCTION

BUSHELS

1,000 BUSHELS

104.0 107.0 3,600 2,808 5,353

60.0 57.0 29,400 26,220

75.0 66.0 16,500 21,450

55.0 57.0 2,915 2,736

: 65.0 67.0 66,950 89,780

+ 51.0 43.0 4,590 3,655

KY : 25 30 33.0 40.0 825 1,200

MD 2 90 95 55.0 58.0 4,950 5,510

MICH : 33 34 49.0 56.0 1,617 1,904

MINN : 820 950 53.0 60.0 43,460 57,000

MONT t 1,850 2,220 42.0 40.0 77,700 88,800

NEBR t 78 88 39.0 38.0 3,042 3,344

NEV : 34 37 80.0 80.0 2,720 2,960

NJ : 17 14 53.0 59.0 901 826

N MEX : 23 20 75.0 77.0 1,725 1,540

Nc : 45 60 49.0 54.0 2,205 3,240

N DAK : 2,520 3,050 45.5 51.0 114,660 155,550

OKLA : 34 60 44.0 42.0 1,102 1,496 2,520

OREG : 270 240 61.0 60.0 15,500 14,400

PA t 65 70 55.0 51.0 3,380 3,570

sc 3 23 30 40.0 50.0 1,650 920 1,500
S$ DAK 3 550 580 42.0 45.0 23,435 23,100
TEX : 45 45 55.0 34.0 1,610 2,475
UTAK z 154 162 72.0 80.0 12,880 11,088
vA 3 100 96 59.0 59.0 5,700 5,900
WASH : 850 960 64.0 73.0 49,410 54,400
WYA : 4 6 60.0 50.0 208 240
Wis 35 42 48.0 57.0 2,688 1,680
WYO 152 164 66.0 65.0 9,360 10,032
us 9,727 11,364 935 508,344

AVERAGE : 1983
1973-82:

AVERAGE
1973-82

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR,
DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

50-64; SEVERE

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP
AND
UNIT
OATS
BARLEY
WINTER WHEAT
RYE
POTATOES
SUMMER
FALL 1/
TOTAL 1/
FLUE-CURED TOBACC
TYPES 11-14

PASTURE AND RANGE
APPLES, COM'L
PEACHES

PEARS
SWEET CHERRIES 3/
TART CHERRIES 3/
APRICOTS
NECTARINES (CALIF
PLUMS (CALIF)
DRIED PRUNES (CAL
ALMONDS (CALIF)
WALNUTS (CALIF)

CITRUS FRUITS 4/

GRAPEFRUIT
LEMONS

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY (CONTINUED)
{DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE

CWT: 187
“ob 277
"> 266
0 :
LB_:2,004
2/PCT: | 88
LB:
TON:
yom:
IF)"
LB:
TON:

1/ YIELD AND PRODUCTION FOR 1984 TO BE RELEASED OCT 11,

: INDICATE

2 477,133
8 508,344
6 1,988,304
2 275116

210 18,677
290,662
329,870
821,288

8,314,500
1,789, 700

179.7
154,600

1982-83

60.600
24,950

1,972,776

2,527,000

186.6

307,900

123.9
170.0
210.0
140.0

450,000

1983-84

53,400
21,000

454,747
622,746
2,021,918
29,903

22,646

790,740

8,199,500
2,502,500

520,000
210.0

1983-84

53, 300
21,300

af

PASTURE AND

RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH, THE 1973-82 AVERAGE IS 82 PERCENT.
3/__ ESTIMATES IN JUN 1 COLUMN INCLUDE FORECASTS IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS OF

LATE QUNE. 4/

SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE

THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION,

JULY 1984

FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH

A-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FALL POTATOES: PERCENT OF ACREAGE PLANTED 8Y TYPE OF POTATOES,
JJ MAJOR STATES, 1984 CROP

POTATO TYPES

1/- PREDOMINANT Type SHOWN MAY INCLUDE SMALL PORTION OF OTHER TYPE(S)
CONSTITUTING LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF STATE'S TOTAL.

FALL POTATOES

ACRES PLANTE® FOR CERTIFIED SEED POTATOES, BY STATES VU

ENTERED ENTERED

FOR
CERTIFICATION

STATE PERCENT

CERTIFIED

FOR
CERTIFICATION

CERTIFIED

ACRES PERCENT
1,681 93
7,409 76
IDAHO 3 44,300 43,365 98
MAINE =: 33,832 32,899 97
MICH : 53192 4,196 81
MINN : 24,603 21,846 89
MONT : 6,763 6,763 100
NEBR : 5,574 5,242 94
NY : 2,009 1,967 98
N DAK: 30,074 293184 97
OREG : 35614 3,427 95
PA : 624 600 96
S DAK: 900 860 96
UTAH : 204 201 99
WASH : 1,863 1,677 90
WIS 2 12,006 10,937 97
wyo : 250 250 100
1/ DATA SUPPLIED BY STATE SEED CERTIFICATION | OFFICIALS.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 B-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


AND : : INDICATED : : INDICATED

UNIT 1984 1983 : 1984
1,000 ACRES
OATS 12,229 9,076 8,088
BARLEY : 11,978 9,727 11,364
WINTER WHEAT : 63,829 47,584 51,109
RYE “os 2,707 2,956 896 958
POTATOES :
SUMMER CHT: 104.1 Wi.) 100.0 107.8
FALL 1/ “¢ 1,072.7 1,119.8 1,049.8 1,092.2
TOTAL 1/ "3 1,270.4 1,330.4 1,240.7 1,297.7
FLUE-CURED TOBACCO :
TYPES 11-14 Leo: 409.8 396.0
PASTURE AND RANGE 2/ PCT :
APPLES, COM’L iB o:
PEACHES "os
PEARS TON :
SWEET CHERRIES 3/ “oo:
TART CHERRIES 3/ LB:
APRICOTS TON :
NECTARINES (CALIF) " :

PLUMS (CALIF) "
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) TM
ALMONDS “fener LB
WALNUTS (CALIF) TON

CITRUS FRUITS 4/
“ORANGES

GRAPEFRUIT
LEMONS

SEE “FOOTNOTES ON PAGE

CONTINUED

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with
related information on setected agricultural commodities. These data were
Prepared and adopted by the Crop Reporting Board which consists of commodity
statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

APPROVED: CROP REPORTING BOARD:
R. R. Hancock, Chairperson,
G. L. Clampet, Secretary,

R. D. Allen, R. L. Addison,
W. T. Brannen, J. E. Brewster,

fr, A. R. Budge, W. ON. Dowdy,
. C. QO. James, 0. C. Johnson,

R. A. Ledbury, 8. A. Nelson,
“ C. A. Ouzts, A. Shaw,
ve obs Siegenthater.

SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PAPAYAS: Hawaii fresh papaya production is forecast at 4.90 million pounds

(2220 metric tons) for July, a drop of 4 percent from June, but an 8
percent increase from July a year ago- Fresh production is expected to total
6.20 million pounds (2810 metric tons) in both August and September, then drop
to 4.80 million pounds (2180 metric tons) in October. These production
forecasts are based on estimates of the numbers of fruits developing from
flowers. Actual production totals in coming months will be affected by
additional variables, including market demand and effects of a switch-over to
a hot water dip method to control fruit flies. Packers expect to begin using
the new method during August.

Fresh production in June is estimated at 5.10 million pounds (2310 metric
tons), a 12 percent drop from the previous month, but 8 percent above
production last June. This brings the fresh fruit total for the first half of
1984 to 32.8 million pounds (14.9 thousand metric tons), 66 percent above last
year. Area in crop during June totaled 3700 acres (1500 hectares), a
fractional increase from May. Harvested area, at 2625 acres (1060 hectares),
increased 2 percent from last month.

PEARS: The Nation's forecast is for 687 thousand tons (623 thousand metric
tons), down 11 percent from last year, and 15 percent below the 1982

crop.

Bartlett tonnage in California, Oregon and Washington is forecast at 411
thousand tons (373 thousand metric tons), an 11 percent decrease from 1983.
The California crop continues to develop nicely, except hot weather may reduce
size. Oregon's and Washington's crop prospects were reduced as the evidence
of poor pollination became more apparent.

Production of Other than Bartletts in the Pacific Coast States is forecast
at 233 thousand tons (21Y thousand metric tons), a 14 percent decrease from
last year. The crop looks good in California and Oregon but pollination was
poor in Washington.

Pear set was good in Michigan and New York.

GRAPES: The California crop is expected to total 5.06 million tons (4.59

millton metric tons), up 3 percent from last year, but 17 percent.
below the record high 1982 production. Raisin type production in Catifornia
is forecast at 2.60 million tons, up 3 percent from 1983, but 15 percent below
1982. Raisin varieties have been developing normally, but recent hot
temperatures have caused some berry and leaf sunburn damage, however, there
are no serious problems at this time. The warm weather has slowed berry
growth but maturity is stil? ten days to two weeks ahead of normal. Bunch
counts vary from area to area but are reported to be better than average.
Berry sizing and bunch development will depend on the weather for the
remainder of the season. Continued hot temperatures would significantly
reduce the final yield.

The California wine type forecast at 2.00 million tons is up 6 percent
from 1983, but 17 percen ess than 1982. Weather conditions this spring have
been ideal. However, late June and early July temperatures have been
considerably above normal and stressed vines may yield less than potential.
Numbers of clusters for most varieties, except Chenin Blanc which has small
bunch counts, appear average. Development of the crop is one to two weeks
ahead of normal.

The forecast for table type grapes jn California is 460 thousand tons,
down 7 percent from 1983 and 25 percent tess than 1982. Harvest began in the
Coachella Valley in early May, where quality has been good and demand strong.
Flame Seedless is the predominant variety being picked, with shipments of
Perlettes now complete. Movement of fresh table grapes from the southern San
Joaquin Valley is just getting underway. There is possibly some burn damage
to Tokay grapes in the Lodi area due to the recent hot weather, but it is too
early to determine the effect on crop stze.

TART CHERRIES: The U.S. forecast totals 308 million pounds (140 thousand

metric tons), almost double the 1983 crop but 1 percent less
than the 1982 crop. The Great Lakes States expect to harvest 288 million
pounds, over double last year's crop, but 3 percent less than 1982. Prospects
are ‘unchanged in both Oregon and Utah. The cherry fly was recently discovered
in the major producing area of Utah and spraying is underway to minimize
losses.

CROP PRODUCTION, JULY 1984 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


40 35
50 28

45 50

42 65

85 65

48 46
210 165
80 80
750 750
110 120

7 6

38 42

14 15
300 300
1,350 1,100
54 36
120 140
310 320

5 6

200 185
70 65
1,260 1,030
240 200
80 95

75 85
300 280
40 45
1,650 1,450
7 5

500 250
13 14

22 12

33 33

9 9

850 680
69 81
9,076 8,088

51.0
48.0
44.0
62.0
56.0
52.0
57.0
47.0
44.0
44.0
51.0
57.0
56.0
50.5
64.0
49.0
80.0
54.0
53.0
48.0
44.0
48.0
68.0
50.0

48.0 2,080
60.0 2,310
66.0 3,350
54.0 2,080
59.0 5,490
77.0 3,174
62.0 11,800
58.0 6,720
60.0 54,150
49.0 8,084
44.0 308
62.0 2,640
57.0 928
60.0 28,350
65.0 97,920
46.0, 3,276
41.0 7,650
48.0 26,680
54.0 378
56.0 18,200
60.0 4,425
53.0 55,650
60.0 23,460
46.0 35420
82.0 6,375
56.0 19,765
58.0 2,800
53.0 123,540
47.0 376
30.0 10,730
70.0 1,020
50.0 816
65.0 1,860
43.0 510
59.0 49,290
50.0 3,025
56.2 592,630

1,000 BUSHELS

1,960
3,600
2,925
2,394
5,185
3,648

12,600
4,560

38,250
5,280

308

3,835

10,230
4,640
45,000
5,880
264
2,604
855
18,000
71,500
1,656
5,740
15,360
324
10,360
3,900
54,590

CROP PRODUCTION,

SULY 1984

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA