Vented Hearth Heaters (Decorative Hearth Products and Gas Log Sets) Energy Use Determ

Standing Pilot Removal Impact Analysis

Standing Pilot Energy use per unit

Vented Decorative Hearth Products MMBtu/yr

Vented Gas Log Sets MMBtu/yr

National Energy Savings from Pilot Removal

Decorative Hearth Products NES (2014-2043) Quads

Gas Log Sets NES (2014-2043) Quads

Total

Adjusted Hearth Products Energy Savings from April 2010 Heating 

Products Final Rule Quads

Net additional NES after accounting for April 2010 Heating 

Products Final Rule Quads
Gas Log Sets) Energy Use Determination

2.67

9.53

0.17

0.07

0.24

-0.13

0.12
Pilot Energy Use per Unit

Vented Decorative Hearth Products

Parameter Units

Annual Burner Hours of Operation (Average) hours/yr

Fraction of Units operating continuous pilot light year round %

Fraction of Units operating continuous pilot light for a fraction of the year %

Average Hours of partial year continuous pilot light operation hours

Pilot Hours of Operation (Average) hours

Pilot Energy Use per hour (Average) Btu/h

Annual Energy Use of Pilot Ignition (Average) MMBtu/yr

Vented Gas Log Sets

Parameter Units

Pilot Hours of Operation (Average) hours

Pilot Energy Use per hour (Average) Btu/h

Annual Energy Use of Pilot Ignition (Average) MMBtu/yr

Vented Gas Log Sets Pilot Light Energy Use References:

Pittsburg Gas Grill and Heater Co. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.pittsburghgasgrill.com/faq.html)

Hargrove Hearth Products. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.hargrovegaslogs.com/faq.htm)

Leonard's Stone & Fireplace. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.leonardsstoneandfireplace.net/faq.html)

Fireside Hearth & Home. Frequently Asked Questions. (URL: http://www.firesidehearthandhome.com/faq.php)

Heatilator. Common Questions. (URL: http://www.heatilator.com/customerCare/searchFaq.asp?c=Gas)
Average Value

37.5

75%

25%

4380

7628

350

2.67

Average Value

7628

1250

9.53

ttsburghgasgrill.com/faq.html)

aslogs.com/faq.htm)

sstoneandfireplace.net/faq.html)

rthandhome.com/faq.php)

hFaq.asp?c=Gas)
References

Houck, James. Residential Decorative Gas Fireplace Usage Characteristic. Report prepared for HPBA. 2010.

Assumption

Calculated

Assumption (On average used 1/2 of the year)

Calculated

2010 DOE's Heating Products Rulemaking (same as vented hearth heaters)

References

Assumed the same as vented decorative hearth products (see reference above).

See pilot light references below

National Energy Savings from Standing Pilot Light Removal

Average Annual Energy Use of Pilot Ignition (MMBtu/yr)

Vented Decorative Hearth Products 2.67

Vented Gas Log Sets 9.53

Fraction of Shipments

Fraction of Vented Hearth vs. All Hearth Shipments 42%

Fraction of Vented Gas Logs vs. All Hearth Shipments 7%

Fraction of Vented Hearth Ornamental Products vs. Vented Hearth 70%

Fraction of Units with Standing Pilot Light Ignition

Pilot Light Ignition (DECORATIVE HEARTH) 75.0%

Continuously Burning Standing Pilot (DECORATIVE HEARTH) 37.5%

Fraction of Continuously Burning Standing Pilot (GAS LOGS) 20%

Average Annual Energy Use of Pilot Ignition (MMBtu/yr)

Decorative Hearth Products NES (2014-2043) 0.172

Gas Log Sets NES (2014-2043) 0.073

April 2010 Final Rule Heated Hearth Product Savings (2013-2042) 0.186

UPDATED Heated Hearth Product Savings (2013-2042) 0.057

Net Savings -0.129

Average Annual Shipments (2014-2043)

Vented Decorative Hearth Products 459,405

Vented Gas Log Sets 103,418

Housing Starts vs. Hearth Product Correlation Factor

1990-2010 0.84

2001-2010 (Used for Analysis) 0.97

 Note: Based on 15 Year Average Lifetime

Year Fraction Surviving

30 0.0%

29 0.0%

28 0.0%

27 0.0%

26 0.0%

25 0.0%

24 0.0%

Survival Function

Inputs

Summary Results
23 0.0%

22 0.0%

21 0.1%

20 0.3%

19 1.0%

18 3.1%

17 7.8%

16 16.8%

15 30.5%

14 48.1%

13 66.7%

12 82.8%

11 93.8%

10 99.0% 9 100.0% 8 100.0% 7 100.0% 6 100.0% 5 100.0% 4 100.0% 3 100.0% 2 100.0% 1 100.0% 0 100.0%
Year

Hearth Heaters 

and Decorative 

Products

1990 300,000 100,000

1991 435,000 135,000

MMBtu/yr 1992 660,000 240,000

MMBtu/yr 1993 895,875 265,247

1994 1,156,382 395,447

Based on 2003 and 2004 shipments 1995 1,200,000

Based on 2003 and 2004 shipments 1996 1,300,000

Based on Houck 2010 study. 1997 1,400,000

1998 1,611,750

Based on 2010 models. 1999 1,767,529

50% of Standing Pilot Light Models 2000 1,977,484

1997 GTI Hearth Study 2001 1,694,330

2002 1,716,139 721,322

2003 1,809,886 765,224

2004 2,103,685

Quads 2005 2,141,165

Quads 2006 1,739,602

Quads 2007 1,513,364

Quads 2008 1,017,078

2009 635,820

2010 650,911

2011 1,446,718 609,926

2012 1,740,975 733,982

2013 1,779,367 750,168

2014 1,751,960 738,614

2015 1,764,688 743,979

2016 1,777,743 749,483

2017 1,756,411 740,490

2018 1,746,455 736,293

2019 1,745,236 735,779

2020 1,722,703 726,279

2021 1,664,061 701,556

2022 1,620,781 683,309

2023 1,597,421 673,461

2024 1,589,226 670,006

2025 1,610,503 678,976

2026 1,606,857 677,439

2027 1,568,205 661,144

2028 1,513,380 638,030

2029 1,481,218 624,470

Historical and Projected Hearth Sh

Total
2030 1,484,592 625,893

2031 1,467,369 618,632

2032 1,419,891 598,616

2033 1,405,096 592,378

2034 1,410,502 594,657

2035 1,415,438 596,738

2036 1,422,515 599,722

2037 1,429,628 602,721

2038 1,436,776 605,734

2039 1,443,960 608,763

2040 1,451,180 611,807

2041 1,458,436 614,866

2042 1,465,728 617,940

2043 1,473,056 621,030

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

2051

2052

2053

2054

2055

2056

2057

2058

2059

2060

2061

2062

2063

2064

2065

2066
Decorative 

Hearth Products Hearth Heaters Vented Gas Log Products

Cumulative 

Affected 

Shipments

Site Energy Use 

(Quads)

108,965

124,177

426,948 182,978 95,559

513,787 220,195 114,995

525,118 225,050 117,531

517,029 221,584 115,721 193,886 0.0005

520,786 223,194 116,562 389,181 0.0010

524,638 224,845 117,424 585,920 0.0016

518,343 222,147 116,015 780,299 0.0021

515,405 220,888 115,357 973,575 0.0026

515,045 220,734 115,277 1,166,717 0.0031

508,395 217,884 113,789 1,357,365 0.0036

491,089 210,467 109,915 1,541,524 0.0041

478,317 204,993 107,056 1,720,893 0.0046

471,423 202,038 105,513 1,897,676 0.0051

469,004 201,002 104,972 2,071,586 0.0055

475,283 203,693 106,377 2,237,745 0.0060

474,207 203,232 106,137 2,382,176 0.0064

462,801 198,343 103,584 2,490,930 0.0066

446,621 191,409 99,962 2,557,287 0.0068

437,129 187,341 97,838 2,585,779 0.0069

Vented Decorative Hearth Products

Historical and Projected Hearth Shipments

Vented Hearth Heaters
438,125 187,768 98,061 2,587,954 0.0069

433,042 185,590 96,923 2,571,307 0.0069

419,031 179,585 93,787 2,541,158 0.0068

414,665 177,713 92,810 2,507,082 0.0067

416,260 178,397 93,167 2,474,645 0.0066

417,717 179,021 93,493 2,445,262 0.0065

419,805 179,917 93,960 2,419,444 0.0065

421,904 180,816 94,430 2,396,833 0.0064

424,014 181,720 94,902 2,376,957 0.0063

426,134 182,629 95,377 2,359,631 0.0063

428,265 183,542 95,854 2,345,036 0.0063

430,406 184,460 96,333 2,333,508 0.0062

432,558 185,382 96,815 2,325,347 0.0062

434,721 186,309 97,299 2,320,729 0.0062

2,155,813 0.0058

1,993,402 0.0053

1,833,109 0.0049

1,674,397 0.0045

1,516,642 0.0040

1,359,237 0.0036

1,201,688 0.0032

1,043,664 0.0028

884,981 0.0024

725,552 0.0019

567,001 0.0015

416,189 0.0011

282,569 0.0008

174,639 0.0005

96,657 0.0003

47,124 0.0001

19,911 0.0001

7,174 0.0000

2,171 0.0000

543 0.0000

111 0.0000

18 0.0000 2 0.0000
Source Energy 

Use (Quads)

Cumulative 

Affected 

Shipments

Site Energy Use 

(Quads)

Source Energy 

Use (Quads)

Cumulative 

Affected 

Shipments

225,050

0.0006 23,144 0.0002 0.0002 446,634

0.0011 46,457 0.0004 0.0005 669,828

0.0017 69,941 0.0007 0.0007 894,673

0.0023 93,144 0.0009 0.0010 1,116,820

0.0028 116,216 0.0011 0.0012 1,337,708

0.0034 139,271 0.0013 0.0014 1,558,442

0.0039 162,029 0.0015 0.0017 1,776,325

0.0045 184,012 0.0018 0.0019 1,986,792

0.0050 205,423 0.0020 0.0021 2,191,785

0.0055 226,526 0.0022 0.0024 2,391,540

0.0060 247,286 0.0024 0.0026 2,578,581

0.0065 267,120 0.0025 0.0028 2,743,827

0.0070 284,361 0.0027 0.0030 2,872,684

0.0073 297,343 0.0028 0.0031 2,955,096

0.0075 305,264 0.0029 0.0032 2,991,318

0.0075 308,665 0.0029 0.0032 2,992,881

ve Hearth Products Vented Gas Log Sets

NIA Calculations
0.0076 308,925 0.0029 0.0032 2,975,293

0.0075 306,937 0.0029 0.0032 2,945,560

0.0074 303,339 0.0029 0.0032 2,906,431

0.0073 299,271 0.0029 0.0031 2,865,834

0.0072 295,399 0.0028 0.0031 2,828,293

0.0071 291,891 0.0028 0.0030 2,794,606

0.0071 288,810 0.0028 0.0030 2,765,082

0.0070 286,110 0.0027 0.0030 2,739,239

0.0069 283,738 0.0027 0.0030 2,716,523

0.0069 281,670 0.0027 0.0029 2,696,721

0.0068 279,927 0.0027 0.0029 2,680,041

0.0068 278,551 0.0027 0.0029 2,666,867

0.0068 277,577 0.0026 0.0029 2,657,539

0.0068 277,026 0.0026 0.0029 2,652,262

0.0063 257,340 0.0025 0.0027 2,463,786

0.0058 237,953 0.0023 0.0025 2,278,174

0.0053 218,819 0.0021 0.0023 2,094,982

0.0049 199,873 0.0019 0.0021 1,913,596

0.0044 181,042 0.0017 0.0019 1,733,305

0.0040 162,252 0.0015 0.0017 1,553,413

0.0035 143,446 0.0014 0.0015 1,373,357

0.0030 124,582 0.0012 0.0013 1,192,759

0.0026 105,640 0.0010 0.0011 1,011,407

0.0021 86,609 0.0008 0.0009 829,202

0.0017 67,683 0.0006 0.0007 648,001

0.0012 49,681 0.0005 0.0005 475,645

0.0008 33,730 0.0003 0.0004 322,936

0.0005 20,847 0.0002 0.0002 199,587

0.0003 11,538 0.0001 0.0001 110,465

0.0001 5,625 0.0001 0.0001 53,856

0.0001 2,377 0.0000 0.0000 22,755

0.0000 856 0.0000 0.0000 8,199

0.0000 259 0.0000 0.0000 2,481

0.0000 65 0.0000 0.0000 621

0.0000 13 0.0000 0.0000 127

0.00002 0.0000 0.0000 21

0.00000 0.0000 0.00003
Site Energy Use - 

Gas (Quads)

Site Energy Use - 

Elec (TWh)

Source Energy 

Use - Gas 

(Quads)

Source Energy 

Use - Elec 

(Quads)

Housing 

Starts

966000

837600

963600

1039400

1160300

1065500

1128500

1116400

1159700

1270400

1241800

1255900

1325100

1386300

1531500

1635900

1654500

1218400

818800

520100

496300

1138975

1370638

0.0002 -0.001 0.0002 0.0000 1400864

0.0003 -0.003 0.0004 0.0000 1379287

0.0005 -0.004 0.0006 0.0000 1389307

0.0007 -0.005 0.0008 -0.0001 1399585

0.0009 -0.007 0.0009 -0.0001 1382791

0.0010 -0.008 0.0011 -0.0001 1374953

0.0012 -0.009 0.0013 -0.0001 1373993

0.0014 -0.011 0.0015 -0.0001 1356253

0.0015 -0.012 0.0017 -0.0001 1310085

0.0017 -0.013 0.0019 -0.0001 1276012

0.0019 -0.014 0.0020 -0.0001 1257621

0.0020 -0.015 0.0022 -0.0001 1251169

0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 -0.0001 1267920

0.0022 -0.017 0.0025 -0.0001 1265050

0.0023 -0.018 0.0025 -0.0001 1234620

0.0023 -0.018 0.0025 -0.0001 1191457

0.0023 -0.018 0.0026 -0.0001 1166136

2013 Standard fo Hearth Products (Updated) Housing Starts
0.0023 -0.018 0.0025 -0.0001 1168793

0.0023 -0.018 0.0025 -0.0001 1155233

0.0023 -0.017 0.0025 -0.0001 1117855

0.0022 -0.017 0.0024 -0.0001 1106207

0.0022 -0.017 0.0024 -0.0001 1110463

0.0022 -0.017 0.0024 -0.0001 1114349

0.0022 -0.017 0.0024 -0.0001 1119921

0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 -0.0001 1125520

0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 -0.0001 1131148

0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 -0.0001 1136804

0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 -0.0001 1142488

0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 -0.0001 1148200

0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 -0.0001 1153941

0.0021 -0.016 0.0023 -0.0001 1159711

0.0019 -0.015 0.0021 -0.0001

0.0018 -0.014 0.0019 -0.0001

0.0016 -0.013 0.0018 -0.0001

0.0015 -0.011 0.0016 -0.0001

0.0014 -0.010 0.0015 -0.0001

0.0012 -0.009 0.0013 -0.0001

0.0011 -0.008 0.0012 -0.0001

0.0009 -0.007 0.0010 0.0000

0.0008 -0.006 0.0009 0.0000

0.0006 -0.005 0.0007 0.0000

0.0005 -0.004 0.0006 0.0000

0.0004 -0.003 0.0004 0.0000

0.0003 -0.002 0.0003 0.0000

0.0002 -0.001 0.0002 0.0000

0.0001 -0.001 0.0001 0.0000

0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000
Housing Starts vs. 

Hearth Shipments 

Factor

Natural Gas Electricity

1.35

1.30

1.31

1.37

1.31 1.075 11500

1.05 1.075 11500

1.24 1.075 11500

1.24 1.075 11500

1.22 1.075 11500

1.31 1.075 11500

1.27 1.075 11500

1.079 11500

1.084 11250

1.085 11000

1.084 10500

1.084 10000

1.084 8500

1.084 7500

1.084 7337

1.085 7337

1.084 7337

1.085 7337

1.089 7337

1.094 7405

1.095 7009

1.095 7009

1.095 6906

1.094 6872

1.094 6404

Site to Source Factor 

Other Data for NIA

Housing Starts
1.093 6396

1.093 6396

1.093 6396

1.093 6396

1.093 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396

1.092 6396
Shipments Data

Year

Fireplaces, Freestanding Stoves, 

Inserts, Fireboxes, and Gas 

Logs* Vented Hearth

1990 300000 100000

1991 435000 135000

1992 660000 240000

1993 895875 265247

1994 1156382 395447

1995 1200000

1996 1300000

1997 1400000

1998 1611750

1999 1767529

2000 1977484

2001 1694330

2002 1716139 721322

2003 1809886 765224

2004 2103685

2005 2141165

2006 1739602

2007 1513364

2008 1017078

2009 635820

2010 650911

HPBA Disaggregated Shipments (2002,2003)

B Vent 2002 2003

Fireplaces 94,608 90,981

Stoves 8,357 8,773

Inserts 13,358 13,849

Log Sets 108,965 124,177

Outdoor 5,643 7,816

 230,931 245,596

Direct Vent

Fireplaces 499,443 541,335

Stoves 62,918 64,598

Inserts 42,638 45,688

 604,999 651,621

Total (B Vent + Direct Vent) 835,930 897,217
Source

Fraction of Hearth 

Fireplaces, Inserts, 

and Stoves Fraction of gas logs

33%

31%

36%

30%

34%

42% 6.3%

42% 6.9% 6.6%

Estimate from GRI Report: Gas 

Hearth Products Market Fact 

Base, 1996

HPBA Website. Hearth Industry 

Unit Shipments

1998--2010. 

http://www.hpba.org/statistics/h

pba-us-hearth-statistics
Charts for Shipments and Equipment Lifetime Data

Year Total

Hearth 

Heaters and 

Decorative 

Products

Decorative 

Hearth 

Products

Hearth 

Heaters

Vented Gas 

Log Products Housing Starts

1990 0.30 0.10 0.97

1991 0.44 0.14 0.84

1992 0.66 0.24 0.96

1993 0.90 0.27 1.04

1994 1.16 0.40 1.16

1995 1.20 1.07

1996 1.30 1.13

1997 1.40 1.12

1998 1.61 1.16

1999 1.77 1.27

2000 1.98 1.24

2001 1.69 1.26

2002 1.72 0.72 0.11 1.33

2003 1.81 0.77 0.12 1.39

2004 2.10 1.53

2005 2.14 1.64

2006 1.74 1.65

2007 1.51 1.22

2008 1.02 0.82

2009 0.64 0.52

2010 0.65 0.50

2011 1.45 0.61 0.43 0.18 0.10 1.14

2012 1.74 0.73 0.51 0.22 0.11 1.37

2013 1.78 0.75 0.53 0.23 0.12 1.40

2014 1.75 0.74 0.52 0.22 0.12 1.38

2015 1.76 0.74 0.52 0.22 0.12 1.39

2016 1.78 0.75 0.52 0.22 0.12 1.40

2017 1.76 0.74 0.52 0.22 0.12 1.38

2018 1.75 0.74 0.52 0.22 0.12 1.37

2019 1.75 0.74 0.52 0.22 0.12 1.37

2020 1.72 0.73 0.51 0.22 0.11 1.36

2021 1.66 0.70 0.49 0.21 0.11 1.31

2022 1.62 0.68 0.48 0.20 0.11 1.28

2023 1.60 0.67 0.47 0.20 0.11 1.26

2024 1.59 0.67 0.47 0.20 0.10 1.25

2025 1.61 0.68 0.48 0.20 0.11 1.27

2026 1.61 0.68 0.47 0.20 0.11 1.27

2027 1.57 0.66 0.46 0.20 0.10 1.23

2028 1.51 0.64 0.45 0.19 0.10 1.19

2029 1.48 0.62 0.44 0.19 0.10 1.17
2030 1.48 0.63 0.44 0.19 0.10 1.17

2031 1.47 0.62 0.43 0.19 0.10 1.16

2032 1.42 0.60 0.42 0.18 0.09 1.12

2033 1.41 0.59 0.41 0.18 0.09 1.11

2034 1.41 0.59 0.42 0.18 0.09 1.11

2035 1.42 0.60 0.42 0.18 0.09 1.11

2036 1.42 0.60 0.42 0.18 0.09 1.12

2037 1.43 0.60 0.42 0.18 0.09 1.13

2038 1.44 0.61 0.42 0.18 0.09 1.13

2039 1.44 0.61 0.43 0.18 0.10 1.14

2040 1.45 0.61 0.43 0.18 0.10 1.14

2041 1.46 0.61 0.43 0.18 0.10 1.15

2042 1.47 0.62 0.43 0.19 0.10 1.15

2043 1.47 0.62 0.43 0.19 0.10 1.16

Lifetime Data Year Probability

30 0% 0% 0 0%

29 0% 0% 1 0%

28 0% 0% 2 0%

27 0% 0% 3 0%

26 0% 0% 4 0%

25 0% 0% 5 0%

24 0% 0% 6 0%

23 0% 0% 7 0%

22 0% 0% 8 0%

21 0% 0% 9 0%

20 0% 0% 10 1%

19 1% 1% 11 5%

18 3% 2% 12 11%

17 8% 5% 13 16%

16 17% 9% 14 19%

15 31% 14% 15 18%

14 48% 18% 16 14%

13 67% 19% 17 9%

12 83% 16% 18 5%

11 94% 11% 19 2%

10 99% 5% 20 1%

9 100% 1% 21 0%

8 100% 0% 22 0%

7 100% 0% 23 0%

6 100% 0% 24 0%

5 100% 0% 25 0%

4 100% 0% 26 0%

3 100% 0% 27 0%

2 100% 0% 28 0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0

Probability
1 100% 0% 29 0% 0 100% 0% 30 0%

1450%
0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Million Shipments or H

ouseholds

Year

2001-2010 Hearth Shipments vs. Housing Starts

Hearth Shipments

Housing Starts

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Million Shipments or H

ouseholds

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010

Million

Year

Historical Hearth Shipments Data (1990-2010)

Total Hearth

Vented Hearth

Vented Gas Logs

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Million
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Years

Lifetime Distribution

Year

Projected Hearth Shipments vs. Housing Starts 

(2011-2043)

Projected Hearth 

Shipments

Projected Housing Starts 

(AEO 2010)

Year

Projected Hearth Shipments Data (2011-2043)

Total Hearth

Total Vented Hearth

Vented Decorative Hearth

Vented Gas Logs