SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

AREA HARVESTED YIELD PRODUCTION

3 2 INO
1979 ¢ 2 1981

Ind + 3 t INO
1961 3 1979 ¢ 1980 t 1981

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
28 34 45 37.0 33.0 35.0 1,036 1,122 1,575
25 26 22 7100 75.0 80.0 1,775 1,760

176 203 290 62.0 29,0 62,0 17,980

140 152 135 75.0 73,0 73.0 9,855

340 350 390-3840 35,0 35,0 13,650
39,0 24,0 28.0 3,640
68.0 67,0 5,360
50.0 45.0 495
74.0 78.0 1,482
6940 68.0 251,600
68.0 61.0 1,607
38.0 36.0 2,700
44,0 43,0 2,150
82.0 85.0 81,480
79.0 a1.0 166,050
5240 50.0 13,000
50.0 50.0 3,750
45.0 42,0 21,000
75.0
41.0 32.0 576
45.0 47,0 19/270
51.0 54.0 3,510
54.0 56.0 240,800
49.0 46.0 ! $06
62.7 63.4 608,862 587,997 863,836

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTENBER 1981] B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


NUTS

PRODUCTION

CROP ANO STATE ee ee ee iS a ier
: TOTAL 3 TOTAL IND
H 1979 : 1980 : 1981

TONS

FILBERTS : .
OREG 2 12,700 15,100 15,000
WASH s 300 300 300
us 13,000 15,400 15,300

WALNUTS :
CALIF : 208,000 197,000 215,000

MINT OIL

AREA HARVESTED FOR OIL YIELD 3 PRODUCTION

STATE oA enw en ewww enw en nn nen serene semen e ee nn an seenaenaenes eee enw owen eeennnccee
2 z 3 INO ¢ 3 3 IND
1980 3 1979 = 1960 § 1961 3 1979 3 1980 = 1981

1,000 ACRES LBS 1,000 POUNDS

PEPPERMINT
IDAHO
IND

59 68 66 502 Sea 429
36 36 36 302 331 331

8.5 6.5

8.4 9.2
OREG 51.0 45.0 36,0 sa 60 65 2,754 2,700 2,340
WASH 14,0 11,6 8.3 60 69 74 840 800 614
wis 9.0 7.2 8.0 35 30 30 315 216 240
us 3 90.9 81,3 68.0 52 57 58 4,713 4,611 3,954
SPEARMINT
IDAHO) 0 Bel 62 75 67 248 233 181
IND t 09 4.6 38 31 36 186 143 151
MICH 3 oA 3.7

65 150
74 94 93 $7184 1,504 1,172
42 39 35 185 152 137
33.1 31.3 29.5 se 68 65 1,922 2,139 1,909

ORES }
WASH
ws.
us

oT

02

8 31 ego 31 118 107 118
3

06

Phd

1/ ESTIMATES BEGIN WITH 1961 CROP,

COFFEE

PRODUCTION

STATE aneeee weeweneneenee

1974<79 3 1979980 1980-81

1,000 POUNDS

HAW 1,680 27190 1,440

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 B-19 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Heavy rains in Michigan halted harvest in it's early stages and caused a yield reduction of
100 pounds per acre from the August 1 forecast. Warm, dry weather which was needed in Minnesota
did not materialize in August and prospects declined. Late fields face frost danger. Harvest
in North Dakota began somewhat later than normal with about 4 percent swathed by the end of
August. Hot, dry weather in Idaho and Washington produced some light pods which reduced yield
potential. Harvest begain in early fields in California's San Joaquin Valley during the last
half of August and will be active in September. Dry beans in Colorado are in good condition
with about one-fifth of the acreage cut and a few fields harvested by September 1. Dryland
acreage in the Southwestern region received adequate moisture and condition is above normal.
Wyoming has about 5 percent of their fields windrowed compared with a normal 26 percent but the

beans are doing well.

ORY EDIBLE PEAS: Production of dry edible peas is expected to total 2.24 million hundredweight

(102 thousand metic tons) in 1981, down one-third from last year but 10
percent more than in 1979. September 1 production prospects improved 2 percent from the August 1
forecast as hot dry weather aided curing and harvest.

With harvest nearly completed, yields are expected to average 2000 pounds per acre, over 400
pounds short of last year's record yields. Acreage for harvest in the two State area of
Washington and Idaho is estimated at 112 thousand acres (45.3 thousand hectares), down 17
percent from 1980.

Idaho's dry pea harvest was more than 90 percent complete by the end of August. The absence
of rain during harvest contributed to a clean, high quality crop.

Washington temperatures remained high through dry pea harvest from mid-July through August.
A cool, early summer coupled with hot, dry harvest weather produced a good quality, high
yielding pea crop. Harvest was winding down by September 1.

POTATOES: Summer potato production in the U.S. is forecast at 19.9 million cwt (904 thousand

metric tons), up fractionally from last month. This production remains 17 percent
above last year's record low output but is the second smallest crop of record. Area intended
for harvest totals 95.0 thousand acres (38.5 thousand hectares), 5 percent above 1980 but 8
percent less than 1979. Average yield at 210 cwt per acre is 21 cwt above last year's drought
reduced yield but 1 cwt below the 1979 yield.

Harvest of the Virginia crop was complete by the middle of August. Estimated production at
2.32 million cwt is 51 percent above 1980. The final forecast for Alabama places production at
1.37 million cwt, down 6 percent from last month but still nearly 3 times as large as last year's
short crop. With harvest complete, Delaware's crop is placed at 1.14 million cwt, 18 percent
greater than the 1980 output. Harvest in New Jersey was about two-thirds complete on
September 1. Production is forecast at 2.07 million cwt, 5 percent above last year. .

Michigan's production is forecast at 1.45 million cwt, down 3 percent from last month and 10
percent below 1980. Reporters indicate that set was generally light this year because of cool
weather in May and June. Quality of harvested potatoes is excellent. In Minnesota about half
of the crop has been harvested and harvest is expected to be complete by the end of September.
Production is placed at 1.65 million cwt, 5 percent above 1980.

The set and quality of the Colorado crop are generally good. Production is forecast at 1.90
million cwt, 19 percent above last year. In California harvest continues with above normal
yields reported. Quality of potatoes is very good. Production is expected to total 2.96
million cwt, 7 percent above last year.

1980 REVISED

Revised production of the Nation's 1980 potato crop (all four seasons) totals 303 million cwt
(13.7 million metric tons), percent below 1979 and 17 percent less than the 1978 output.
Final area harvested was 1.15 million acres (467 thousand hectares), down 9 percent from 1979
and 16 percent below 1978. Average yield at 262 cwt per acre compares with 270 cwt in 1979 and
267 cwt in 1978.

Estimated fall potato production for 1980 is revised to 266 million cwt (12.1 million metric
tons), 10 percent less than 1979 and 18 percent below 1978. Final acreage harvested was 981
thousand acres (397 thousand hectares), down 8 percent from 1979 and 16 percent below 1978.
Average yield at 272 cwt per acre was 5 cwt below 1979 and 7 cwt below 1978.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


WINTER WHEAT

3 AREA HARVESTED YTELO PRODUCTION
STATE Semwemnnwn nnn ewe n name wenn owen aren ee mene nn ene n mene rene neem ene new wscen nner ssecensnces
: : IND $ 3 IND 3 : 2 IND
3 1979 1980 3 1981 2 1979 3 1960 2 19861 ¢ 1979 3 1986 & 1981
‘ 1,000 ACRES SUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA 1st 145 235 S65 26.0 24,5 99.0 3,770 5,758 24,660
ARIZ 1/2 55 60 43 78.0 80.0 82.0 4,290 4,800 3,526
ARK ast 420 820 1,650 35.0 41,0 14,700 31,160 67,650
CALIF 1/2 755 1,050 1,200 70.0 75.9 52,850 77,700 90,000
coro 1/3 2,600 3,350 3,050 26.0 27.0 67,600 107,200 82,350
OEL we et e7 as 34.0 40.0 714 1-080 1,720
GA wt 175 600 1,050 3540 41,0 6,125 19,800 43,050
TOAHO 3 850 910 900 42.0 56.0 35,700 51,870 50,400
Tu vse 1,250 1,570 1,900 43.0 48.0 33,750 75,360 914200
InD 1ss 945 1,100 1,350 47.0 46,0 44,415 53,900 62,100
TowA 4/2 60 92 110 3740 38.0 2,220 3,496 4,180
KANS 1/8 10,800 12,000 12,200 38.0 25.0 410,400 420,000 305,000
ny ast 290 350 700 35.0 39.5 43,0 11,020 13,825 30/100
LA ast 26 oT 275 28.0 28.0 44,0 726 1,676 12-100
MD we 90 7 137 3720 38.0 40.0 3,330 3,686 5,480
MICH 1/8 735 800 820 43.9 44,0 a7.0 31,605 35,200 38,540
MINN 4/3 S1 69 120 35.0 34,0 36.0 1,785 2,346 4,320
MISS 1/2 115 250 600 32.0 31.0 38.0 3,680 7,750 22,800
MO Wi 1,600 2,070 2,750 44.0 43.0 41.0 70,400 69,010 112,750
MONT 3 2,250 2-150 2.570 25.5 25.5 35.0 57,375 34,825 89,950
NEBR 17% 2,550 27950 3,050 34,0 38.8 34,0 86,700 112,100 103,700
NEV 1/3 AL 12 13 70,0 6540 65.0 770 780 845,
NJ 1/3 ai a3 56 36.0 43.0 42,0 1,476 1,849 2,352
N MEX 1/7? alo S00 ses 22.0 21.0 20,0 9,020 10,500 40,500
NY ast 160 150 160 41.0 43,0 6,560 6,000 6,880
NC we 210 300 405 36.0 35.0 7,560 10,500 14,175
N DAK 1/3 120 70 120 22.0 31.0 2,640 1,050 3,720
OHIO 1/3 1,320 1,370 1,600 48.0 43.0 63,360 67,130 68,800
OKLA 1/3 5,700 6,500 6,400 38.0 27.0 246,600 195,000 172,800
OREG 3 1,000 1-200 10170 48.0 59.0 48,000 72,000 69,030
PA we 235 250 270 31.0 36.0 7,285 9,250 9,720
sc ’si 100 192 340 33.0 34,0 3,300 6,912 12,920
S DAK 1/2 550 950 1,030 19.0 25.0 10,450 20,900 25,750
TENN 4/8 250 350 B50 34.0 44.0 8,500 13,300 37,400
TEX we 4,600 5,200 6,550 30.0 28.0 138,000 130,000. 183,400
UTAH 1/8 242 242 240 24,0 30.0 57808 7,502 7,200
vA we 180 286 395 35.0 42.0 6,300 10,582 26,590
WASH 3 2,200 2,750 24900 43.0 55.0 94,600 143,000 159,500
WVA A738 10 9 10 34,0 33.0 340 34a 330
wis wet 38 BA 93 43.0 44.0 1,634 3,652 4,092
WYO ws 267 295 27s 22,0 27.0 5,874 B,260 7,425
us 2 43,427 $1,374 54,525 36,9 36.8 3562 17601-2340 1,891,253 2,059,205

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 B-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF SEPTEMBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on surveys taken about
September 1. The yield surveys included mailed reports from farmers for all crops and actual
field observations and measurements for corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat, and some fruit and nut
crops. Farmers provided appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops
on their farms and for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot
observations, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These surveys are subject to
sampling and non-sampling type errors that are common to al? surveys. More importantly, the
forecasts are subject to change due to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be
measured currently but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in this report, the
"Root Mean Square Error”, a statistical measure based on past performance, is shown below for
selected crops. This is computed by expressing the deviations between the September 1 produc-
tion forecasts and the final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the
squared percentage deviations for the 1961-80 twenty year period; the square root of this average
becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concern-
ing expected differences in the current forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates,
assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing
recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error“ for the September 1 corn for grain forecast is
5.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of
7940 million bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.1 percent or
approximately 405 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that
the difference will not exceed 8.8 percent or approximately 699 million bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between
the September 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between
the September 1 forecast and the final estimate during the 10 years have averaged 331 million
bushels, ranging from 98 million to 671 million bushels. During this 10-year period the
September 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 2 times. This does not
imply that the September 1 corn forecast in a particular year is Yikely to understate or
overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimates is about equally distributed.

RELIABILITY OF SEPTEMBER 1 CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS

: ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR

TEN YEAR RECORD OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
FORECAST AND FINAL ESTIMATE

CROP AND
UNIT

FEED GRAINS 1/
CORN FOR GRATN
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN
OATS
BARLEY
ALL WHEAT

DURUM

OTHER SPRING
RICE
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS
COTTON

1/ CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
2/ QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


GRAPES.

PRODUCTION 1/

CRUP AND STATE

GRAPES TABLE TYPE 2
CALIF : 417,090 428,000 410,000
GRAPES WINE TYPE 3
ALT : 1,821,000 2,004,000 1,750,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE DRIEO 2/3
CALIF 3 302,300 309,000
GRAPES RAISIN NOT DRIED :
CALI 3 9aa,000 4,080,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE Br
CALIF 2 24 320,000 2+692,000 1,550,000
ALL GRAPES :
ARIZ ast 13,500 12,400 12,400
ARK ast 6,200 61600 8,100
CALIF 3 4,558,000 56128,000 347194000
wien + 58,500 89/500 50,000
mo are 4,500 4,200 3,200
ny : 165,000 175,000 125,000
Nc ast 51800 54300
OHIO ass 12/000 10/000
PA t Ser 000 56,000
WASH : 145,100 150,000
OTHER STATES 4f Sf 5/200 4,500 54400
us . 4,989,000 5/595-100 4,135,900

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS CULLAGE
(TONS)? US 1979-300, 1980-300, :
2/ ORIED BASIS,1 TON OF RAISINS IS EQUIVALENT TO 4,55
TONS OF FRESH GRAPES FOR 1979 ANO 5.22 TONS FOR 1980,
3/ FRESH EQIVALENT OF DRIED AND NOT DRIED,
Gf ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
5/ GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA,

PRUYES AND PLUMS

’ PRODUCTION

CHOP AND STATE

PRUNES (DRIED 6ASIS)

CALIF 156,000 168,000 155,000
PRUNES AND PLUMS

IDAHO 7,300 8,000

MICH 14,000 12,500

okes 26,090 33,000

WASH : 14,700 23,100

TOTAL 4 STATES z 62,200 76,600

CRANBERRIES 1/

PRODUCTION

1980
1,000 BARRELS

1,185.0 1,180.0

245.0 245.0

83.5 100.0

104.0 132.0

1,080.0 966.0

us 2,475.5 2,697.5 2,623.0

‘1/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM CRANBERRY REPORT RELEASED ‘AUGUST 18, 1987.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 8-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


AREA HARVESTED YIELO t PROOUCTION
STATE Ell alata el ctl all ete ete ee ee nt hf ie’
: 3 3 IND ¢ $ IND t : INO
3 1979 3 1980 1981 3 1979 1980 3 19814 1979 19814
t 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
:
ALA 1/3 28 30 35 43.0 42.0 43,0 1,204 1,260 1,505
ARK ise 34 33 36 65.0 63.0 60.0 2,210 2,079 2,160
CALIF 1/3 5 70 60 55.0 62.0 60.0 4,125 4,340 3,600
coLo 1/3 50 33 e7 33.0 51.0 49.0 2,650 1,683 1,323
GA wst 70 6s 80 54.0 53.0 60.0 3,780 3,445 4,800
TOAHO 1/3 ag a6 a6 52.0 65.0 60.0 2,288 2,990 2,760
TUL 260 230 215 60,0 61.0 66,0 15,600 14,030 14,190
INO 105 90 80 61.0 65.0 64,0 6,405 5850 5,120
TOWwA 1,000 1,000 900 63,0 62.0 62,0 63,000 62,000 55,800
KANS 85 120 175, 44,0 36.0 48,0 3,740 4,560 8,400
ky | 8 6 _ 7 41.0 49.0 39.0 328 240 273
MAINE 41 42 43 62,0 58.0 65.0 2,542 2,436 2,795
MD 17 19 20 55.0 59.0 54.0 935 1,121 1,080
MICH 310 335 340 61.0 60,0 59.0 18,910 20,100 29,060
MINN 17490 1,450 1,505 5740 57.0 63.0 84,930 82,650 94,815
MO 4s 46 90 45.0 43.0 47.0 2,025 12978 4,230
MONT 125 73 110 39.0 44,0 50.0 4,875 3,212 5,500
NEBR 400 370 410 53.0 41.0 40.0 21,200 15,170 16,400
NJ 7 5 5 55.0 50.0 350 . 275 250
NY 290 280 280 64,0 62.0 17,960 17,920 17,360
nc 95 75 75 52,0 54.0 5,415 3,900 4,050
N DAK B40 450 1,070 30.0 46,0 36,960 13,500 49,220
OHIO 290 290 270 67.0 63.0 20,300 19,430 17,010
OKLA 95 100 105 39.0 39.0 4,560 3,900 4,095
OREG 60 60 65 69.0 70.0 4,020 4,140
PA 335 340 350 55.0 56.0 56.0 18,425 19,040
sc so 4O 46 56.0 49.0 49.0 3,304 14960
8 DAK 1,888 1,500 1,700 50.0 44,0 38.0 94,400 66,000
TENN 16 12 16 41.0 46.0 46,0 656 $52
TEX 800 340 410 42.0 37.0 46.0 16,800 12,580
UTAH 15 15 14 60.0 61.0 61,0 900 915
VA es 20 17 49.0 45.0 47.0 1,225 900
WASH 1/3 33 30 31 53.0 62.0 62.0 1,749 1,860
WoVA 42 i le 51.0 49,0 49.0 612 539
wis 980 963 957 57.0 61,0 58.0 55,860 58,743
WYO $2 $1 52 44,0 45.0 46.0 2,268 2,295
us 9,679 8,640 9,654 54.4 53.0 52.8 526,551 457,593 509,457

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PEANUTS FOR NUTS

’ AREA HARVESTED
STATE tewennnee:

PRODUCTION

2 3
1979 1980 1981

1,000 POUNDS

: :
: 1979 1981 5 1979

1,000 ACRES

210.0 2-785 1,325 2,400 584,850 265,000 504,000
60.0 3,270 2,600 3,050 179,850 143,000 = 183,000
355.0 3,235 1,935 3.000 1,704,805 1,665,000

7,5 1,650 1,250 1,700 12,375 77500 12,750

949 2,750 2,540 2,400 25,300 22,352 23,760
170.0 2,260 1,755 2,600 376,480 291,330 442,000
118.0 2,200 1,335 2,200 264,000 140,175 259,600
15,0 2,150 1,100 2,100 32,250 14,300 31,500
. 285.0 1,725 1,275 1,600 533,025 293,250 456,000
101,0 104,0 2,510 1,350 2,750 253,510 136,350 266,000
4,519.67 1,398,8 1,534,4 2,611 14650 2,518 3,968,485 2,307,847 3,863,610

A/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

COTTON
AREA HARVESTED : YIELD : PRODUCTION 17
IND ¢
1980 t 1981 3
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES a
COTTON, UPLAND
305.0 321.0 326,0 510 an 455 324,0 275.0 309.0
575.0 $89.0 599.0 1,069 14103 1,202 1,280.0 17554.0 150040
530.0 645.0 600.0 5u9 330 500 606.0 44a,0 625.0
1,635.0 1,500.0 1,490.0 1,000 995 14063 3,408,0 3,109.0 3, 30040
3.4 5.9 12.7 505 610 582 ao 1S 14.6
150.0 160.0 165.0 486 258 349 152.0 86.0 120.0
465.0 560.0 695.0 712 394 553 690.0 460.0 800.0
1,050.0 1125.0 1,260.0 65? 488 S90 1,937.0 1,183.0 £,550.0
137.0 241.0 190.0 550 353 467 157,0 17760 185.0
Sel 0 12 655 640 635 1.5 102 1.5
126.0 120.0 125.0 396 428 499 104,0 107.0 130.0
45.0 65.0 76.0 455 3e1 47a 43.0 52.0 75.0
580.0 565.0 655.0 432 178 385 522.0 205.0 525.0
109.0 120.0 118.0 510 309 508 116.0 77.0 125.0
230.0 275.0 320.0 357 349 375 171.0 200.0 250.0
6,800.0 6,850.0 7,100.0 389 233 399 5,515.0 3452060 5490040
vA sk 3 3 3 320 320 480 2 22 3
us 212 7AL8 13,043,113, 733, sat az 539 14,530,7 11,01769 15,010.4
COTTON, AMERSPIMA
arizt 4363 4261 34,8 743 624 869 67,0 72.3 63.0
CALIF 3/3 at ot 0 400 480 9 ot ol 0
N MEX 14.8 7.0 7.0 246 46a 473 7.5 6.8 6.9
Tex 30.9 22.5 19,5 373 333 665 aa,o 25.0 27.0
us 8561 T1e7 61.3 531 698 789 98.6 104.2 96.9
COTTON, ALL
ALA t 305.0 321.0 326.0 510 aun 455 324.0 275.0 309.0
ARIZ. = 618.3 63101 633.8 1,046 1,085 1,184 1,347.0 1,426.3 1,563.0
ARK 3 530.0 645.0 600,0 sag 330 500 606.0 aaa. 625.0
CALIF & 176350 1500,1 = 1,.490,0 = 1,000 995 1,063 3,408.1 3,109.1 3, 300,0
3.4 5.9 12.7 S05 610 552 4,0 7.5 14.6
150.0 160.0 165.0 age 258 349 152.0 86.0 120.0
465.0 560.0 695.0 nz 394 553 690.0 460.0 800.0
1705000 1125.0 1,260.0 657 438 590 14437,0 1414340 1755040
137.0 241.0 190.0 550 352 467 157.0 177460 185.0
lel 0 tet 645 640 655 15 162 1.5
140.8 127.0 132.0 340 430 498 111.5 113.8 136.9
45.0 65.0 455 3a4 ara 43,0 52.0 1540
580.0 565.0 432 174 385 522.0 205.0 $25.0
109.0 120.0 510 308 508 116.0 7740 125.0
230.0 275.0 357 349 375 171.0 20060 250.0
6,830.9 6,872.5 389 233 400 5,539,0 © 3,345,0 5,927.0
. 3 320 320 480 22 . 3
12,830.9 13,214.8 547 40a 540 14,6293 11,12261 15,507.3

1/ PRODUCTION GINNEO AND TO HE GINNED,
2/ 4BOWLB, NET AEIGAT BALES,
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAX CARRIEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 B-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



ALL WHEAT

4 AREA HARVESTED > YIELD 3 PRODUCTION
STATE  Swanennnnnnnn anne rem een ten ene neem seen eens eaeen acne pence een eee wae
7 : Inv ¢ t INv 3 {No
: 1979 3 1980 1981 2 1979 3 1980 1961 3 1979 1980 1981
: 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
ALA 145 235 24,5 44.0 3,770 5,758 24,860
ARIZ 125 ais 89.0 B12 9,580 17,200 19,564
ARK 420 820 38,0 41.0 14,700 31,160 67,650
CALIF 6u0 1,150 74,3 76,7 56,450 85,500 104,685
coo 2 bat 3,395 32.4 a7.4 70,224 109,900 64,710
OEL at 27 40,0 40,0 m4 1,080 1,720
GA 175 600 33.0 41.0 64125 19,800 43,050
IDAHO 1,470 1,550 62.0 59.4 74,140 96,030 86,475
TL 1,250 1,570 48,0 48.0 53,750 75,360 94,200
TNO 945 1,109 49,0 46.0 44,415 $3,900 62,100
TOWA 60 92 38.0 38.0 2,220 3,096 4,180
KANS 10,600 12,000 35.0 25.0 410,400 420,000 305,000
ay 290 Bon 39.5 43.0 41,020 13,825 30,100
La 26 67 28,0 44,0 728 1,876 12,100
MD 90 97 38,0 40,0 3,330 3,686 5,480
MICH 1/: 735 400 44,0 47,0 31,605 35,200 38,540
MINN : 2,578 3,169 32,4 36,9 90,384 102,556 138,150
Miss iss 15 250 BL.o 3840 3,680 7,750 22,800
Mo 1st 16600 2-070 43,0 41,0 70,490 89,010 112,750
MONT : 5,125 5,100 23.5 BO.1 © 116,475 119,800 174,275
NEBR 2st 2,550 2,950 38.0 34,0 86,700 112,100 103,700
NEV 1/3 24 29 62.1 56.7 1,420 1,800 1,645
NJ Ast a1 43 43.0 42.0 1¢476 1,849 2,352
N MEX 173 a10 500 21,0 20.0 9,020 10,500 10,500
NY wi 160 150 40.0 43,0 - 6,560 6,000 6,880
we 73 ato 300 35.0 55.6 7,560 10,500 14,475
N DAK 94600 9,620 18,7 26,8 252,235 179,650 338,620
OWIO 1/2 * 14320 1,370 49,0 43.0 63,360 67,130 68,600
OKLA 1/3 5,700 6,500 30.0 © 27,40 © 226,609 = 195,000 172,800
OREG 3 16245 1,350 57.3 571 57-310 77,400 73,400
PA We 235 250 3760 3o.0 7Tr205 9250 9,720
sc We 100 192 36.0 5440 3,300 6,912 12,920
9 0AK of 2,805 3,245 19,2 22.3 60,060 62,425 78,375
TENN 1/2 250 350 38.0 a4,Q 6,500 13-300 37,800
TEX 1/% 4,600 5,200 25.0 28.0 136,000 130,000 183,400
UTAH 1/3 282 e72 32.9 3149 77448 8,942 8,610
vA Tf 180 286 37.0 82.9 64300 10,582 16,590
21980 3,160 50.7 53.8 118,000 160,220 167,860
/ 9 38.0 3340 340 342 330
! 54 wit 39.3 41.0 2r162 4,365 4,960
/ 287 309 27.5 26,8 67354 8,512 7,689

3344 34,1 2,134

60 2,369,666 2,750,415

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARKTED FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.

WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

nuRuM WHITE &

1,000 BUSHELS

1976 829,908 188,920 203,618 379,694 133,328 40,056 1,775,524
1979 1,085,918 316,698 195,618 362,891 106,654 63,264 2,134,060
1960 1,184,811 427,530 278,910 311,220 108,395 56,794
1981 1,103,496 658,356 297,373 460,172 187,353 43,385

1/ INDICATED SEPTEMBER 1, 1981.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1987 B=5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PECANS

2 PRODUCTION
CROP AND STATE Perron ener ene e enone renner een n ne erase eran erate enneneeenene
3 TOTAL : TOTAL : IND
: 1979 1980 1981
: 1,000 POUNDS
PECANS IMPROVED it
ALA ’ 2,800 10,400 22,000
ARK z 400 200 1,000
FLA $ 1,100 26500 2,000
GA 3 $4,000 84,000 92,000
LA : 2,500 2,000 4,000
MISS : 1,500 3,500 13,000
N MEX 3 14/700 14,700 15,000
nc : 900 1,100 2,000
OKLA ’ 1,000 500 2,500
sc : 1,200 1,600 6,900
TEX 3 21,000 8,000 20,000
us 3 101,100 128,500 179,800
PECANS NATIVE & SEEDLING z
ALA 3 1,200 97600 14,000
ARK 3 1,100 700 3,000
FLA 3 1,500 3,500 3,000
GA : 11,000 21,000 23,000
tA 3 13,500 12,000 19,000
NISS : 1,000 2,000 5,000
ne : 400 600 1,000
OKLA 3 9,000 3,000 19,500
sc z 400 600 1,100
TEX 3 70,000 3,000 60,000
us 3 109,500 55,000 148,600
ALL PECANS 3
ALA 3 4,000 20,000 35,000
ARK 3 t,500 900 4,000
FLA : 2,600 6/000 57000
GA : 65,000 105,000 115,000
LA t 16,000 14,000" 23,000
MISS 3 2,500 4,500 18,000
N MEX : 14,700 14,700 15,000
nc 3 1.700 3,000
OKLA 3 3,500 22,000
sc : 2,200 8,000
TEX : 11,000 80,000
us 210,600 183,500 328,000

1/ BUDOED, GRAFTED, OR TUPWORKED VARIETIES.

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

FRESH PRODUCTION

: FORECAST
1981 > 1981

1,000 POUNDS
5,370

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 198] 8-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


August fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.20 million pounds (1910 metric tons), down
22 percent from July but 20 percent more than a year ago. Area harvested in August, at 2135
acres (860 hectares), was down 1 percent from July but up 11 percent from last August.

Cumulative fresh production for January-August of this year totals 39.3 million pounds (17.8
thousand metric tons). This, combined with fresh production projections for the last four
months of the year, gives a forecast of 60.4 million pounds (27.4 thousand metric tons) for 1981.

CRANBERRIES: The forecast of the 1981 U.S. cranberry crop is 2.62 million barrels (119

thousand metric tons), 3 percent less than last year's record crop but 6 percent
more than 1979 production. 8ased on early August conditions, Oregon and Washington expect
increased production compared with last year, New Jersey is unchanged and Massachusetts and
Wisconsin expect decreased production.

The Massachusetts crop is forecast at 1.18 million barrels, fractionally less than a year
earlier but up 9 percent from 1979. Bloom came early and set was average to heavy. Berry size
is medium to large. Rainfall has been timely and adequate.

New Jersey expects a crop of 245 thousand barrels, unchanged from 1980 but 3 percent below
the crop of 1979. Weather conditions have been generally favorable, but additional moisture is
needed for continued development.

Oregon expects a crop of 100 thousand barrels, 20 percent more than last year and 6 percent
above 1979. Growing conditions have been good with frost damage, disease and insect problems at
a minimum. A few bogs are suffering from inadequate irrigation.

The Washington crop is forecast at 132 thousand barrels, up 27 percent from 1980 but down 10
percent from the 1979 crop. Cool, wet weather during much of the early and mid-bloom period
reduced pollination but warm weather late in the period improved crop prospects. Fruit set and
size is near normal.

Production in Wisconsin is forecast at 966 thousand barrels, down 11 percent from 1980, but
up 7 percent from 1979, Water has been adequate and many producers report an average crop.
However, winter damage was received throughout the State, and the west central Wisconsin crop
was further damaged by a series of hail storms.

PECANS: The season's first forecast for the 1981 U.S. pecan crop is 328 million pounds (149

thousand metric tons), 79 percent higher than last year's drought-stricken crop and 56
percent above the 1979 production. The native and seedling crop is nearly three times larger
than last year while production from improved varieties is up 40 percent from a year ago.
Alabama's prospects are much improved from last year as groves in the southwest have recovered
from the 1979 hurricane damage. In Georgia, a very good crop is in prospect with nut sets
generally better than normal. Subsoil moisture has been deficient but August rains provided
some relief which will aid in the filling of nuts. Louisiana pecan groves report a better than
average nut set but dry weather has caused some droppage. In Mississippi, pecan prospects are
the best in several years. Conditions are variable in New Mexico but the total crop is expected
to be normal. Oklahoma's 1981 crop is much larger than last year's because of good moisture and
cooler temperatures which have aided crop development. The Texas production is also up sharply
from last year's drought reduced crop. Nut set is heavy this year but high temperatures and dry
conditions during July and August have caused some droppage and stress.

FILBERTS: Production of filberts in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 15.3 thousand tons

(13.9 thousand metric tons), down 1 percent from last year's production but 18 percent
above the 1979 crop. Pollination weather was excellent and growth conditions have been normal.
Nut sizes are Jarge and harvest is expected to start October 1.

WALNUTS: California walnut prospects continue excellent for a crop of 215 thousand tons (195

thousand metric tons), unchanged from last month's forecast and 9 percent above last
year's production. Sets are excellent but nut sizes are generally smaller than in 1980, when
unusually large sizes were obtained. Soundness in-hul] is up from last year in all varieties.
Harvest is just getting underway in the southern part of the San Joaquin Valley and will start
later this month in the Sacramento Valley.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


U.S. CORN PRODUCTION

OM EELS

ae
as
as
1S
18
a5
iy
a5
ae
45
“u
as
a8
25
20
Ls
ws
BS
ae

TIT TTT TET Tt Ez

y

R R n 6 B n n n a

*SEPTEMBER FORECAST

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: The 1981 grain sorghum crop is forecast at 864 million bushels (21.9 million
metric tons), up 47 percent from a year ago and 7 percent above the 1979

crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 63.4 bushels, 17.2 bushels above the 1980 crop.

As of September 1, 93 percent of the sorghum was headed with 25 percent of the crop mature.
Harvest is nearing completion in south Texas with 65 percent of the States’ crop harvested.

Abundant rainfall during August optimized growing conditions in the midwest. Yields
increased 3 bushels from last month in Kansas, and 2 bushels in both Texas and Nebraska.

OATS: Producers expect to harvest 509 million bushels (7.39 million metric tons) of oats, 11
percent more than last year but 2 percent less than the August 1 forecast. Yields are
expected to average 52.8 bushels per acre compared with 53.0 bushels last year.

Rain during August delayed the harvest and lowered yields through most of the Corn Belt and
central Plains. Ladging and excessive weeds caused harvesting problems in scattered areas. Ory
weather lowered most yields along the northern U.S. border from Montana to Michigan, but
provided excellent harvesting conditions.

Minnesota led oat producing States with total production of 94.8 million bushels. The
estimated yield of 63.0 bushels per acre was 6 bushels above a year ago but unchanged from a
month earlier.

Yield prospects declined from August 1 in the other major producing States with South
Oakota, at 38.0 bushels per acre and Wisconsin at 58.0 bushels, each down 3 bushels per acre.
The Towa average yield at 62.0 bushels was off 1 bushel per acre from a month ago.

BARLEY: The 1981 barley crop is forecast at 476 million bushels (10.4 million metric tons), up
33 percent from last year but 2 percent below the August 1 forecast. Yield per acre is

forecast at a record 52.5 bushels, up 2.9 bushels from 1980. Acres for harvest remains at 9.07

million acres (3.67 million hectares), 25 percent above last year. .

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SUGARBEETS Vv

AREA HARVESTED YIELD : PRODUCTION
STATE mene ewer en wenn ence nonsense een enon n enn nnn eeee nee e na nne wenn enncnnseen eres

2 2 2 IND ¢ :

$ 4979: 1980 3 198t 2 1979 % 1960 $ 1981

+ 1,000 ACRES TONS
ARIZ 3 11.3 961 12,6 19.2 22,9 217 208 300
CALIF = 215.0 226.0 20.0 «= 26.6 5B 5,719 5,862 7,020
coLo 3 73.0 91.0 77.0 18,6 = 19,0 1,358 1,729 1,502
IDAHO 3 12549 137.9 144,0 22.4 2349 2,820 3,296 3312
KANS 3 12,0 14.5 14,5 17,8 13.8 213 200 276
MICH 3 8 97,0 98,0 17,6 19,5 1,550 1,892 1,862
AINN a 244.0 243.0 257,90 15.5 24,9175 3,782 3,621 8,898
MONT Fy a3.0 03.3 reel 19, 20,3 829 873 860
NEBR : 72.4 85,0 76,0 20.2 20,9 4,862 4,777 1,520
N MEX 2/2 2.0 166 2.5 15.0 23.1 30 37 46
N OAK 143a1 142.7 145,0 lost 1401 17,5 27304 26017 2,53
OHIG : 13.7 17,8 14,4 19.4 3901 17,5 266 339 252
ORES 3 6.7 7.2) 11,0 26.6 27.4 26S 478 197 292
TEX : 19.5 24,4 25,2 iy. 15,8 20,0 332 386 504
UTAH a¢t 165 7 0 19,9 28.4 940 30 15 °
wr z 48.2 48,3 44.8 18,8 22,6 20.0 906 1,024 896
us 1,119.7 6168.5 14225.7 19,6 19,8 20.9 24,996 23,499 25,678

1/7 RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR
OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED BEETS 1% CALIF.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURWENT YEAR CARRIEN FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

SUGARCAWE FUR SUGAR AND SEED

AREA HARVESTED 2 YIELO PRODUCTION
STATE “ een neen wenn
1979 3 1980
1,000 ACRES TONS: 1,000 TONS
FLA 330,6 339,2 340.0 31.4 31.2 30,0 10,387 40,592 10,200
HAW 107.9 104,5 106.0 91.4 90.4 92.3 9,859 9,446 94779
LA 262.0 254.0 260,0 20.6 23,3 26,0 5,403 5,927 6,760
TEX 32,0 35,0 37.6 27.6 28,5 30.0 863 998 1,128
us 732.7 732.7 743.6 36.2 56,8 37.5 26,532 26,963 27,867
HUPS
AREA HARVESTED YIELO “pRoOUCTION 17

STATE

: Ind = : : Iw
1981 2 1979 1980 & 1982

Int
1981

1974 2 1980 2/%

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
CALIF 1,640 1,600 1,546 1,968 1,920
IDAHO 4,960 1,800 4,617 5,988 6,120 -
OREG 1,960 1,800 8,624 12,152 12,960
WASH 2,080 1,900 49,140 55,952 59,470
us 2,037 1,867 $4,929 73,960 60,470

L/ 1961 QUANTITIES AVAILABLE FOR MARKET WILL BE GOVERNED
BY REGULATIONS ISSUEU UNDER FEDERAL MARKET ORDER 991,

2/ INCLUUES HUPS LUST BY FIRE(PULNDS)S OREG=89,/000,
WASH=799,000,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 19817 B-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


AREA PLANTED, POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP + 3 SEASONAL GROUP ¢ 3 3
AND $1979 = «1980 1981 AND. = 1979 ¢ «61960 $= 1981
3 3 Hy STATE 8 : 5

STATE
one wal neem ene ree nnn neneeenserwcene

1,000 ACRES

1,000 ACRES

WINTER FALL 1/ a7
CALIF 3.3 3.0 ALIF 17.4
FLA 1 9.7 6.6 cove 3720

2 CONN 1.6
TOTAL 7 13.0 il.6 TDAHO#10 Sw CO 23.0
' OTHER CO 282.0 .

SPRING 1/ t IND 3.6
ALA 3 8.0 5.5 MAINE 106,0
ARIZ 3 6.2 4.4 MASS 3.4
CALIF 2 30,0 22.5 MICH 32.5
FLASHASTING % 20.0 20.0 MINN 65.0

OTHER t 1.0 1.0 MONT 720
LA 3 2.3 261 NEBR 6.9
nc 2 13.8 13.2 NEV 13,0
TEX 2 15 6.5 N YeLONG Is 19,0

? @UPSTATE 26.9
TOTAL t 88.8 15.2 N DAK 114.0
3 OHIO : 10,0

SUMMER 17 2/0 t OREG-MALHEUR 10.5
ALA t 10.0 965 OTHER CO ft 37.5
CALIF z 7.7 7.6 z 235.0
cote 3 Ted 6.0 : 3.2
DEL x 5.6 5.3 13
ILL ? 2et 1.9 5.3
IND 7 169 1.6 6
IOWA : 165 1.6 87.0
4o 2 17 1.8 52.5
MICH : 8.9 865 3.8
MINN 3 6.4 5.5
NEBR 3 1.7 1.4 1,002.3
nd + 8.8 8.5
N MEX 3 4a.s 3.5 1,182.0 1,253.2
nC 3 4d 349
OHIO 3 1.9 1,5
TENN : 343 2.8
TEX ces’ 8.0

? 20.0 4.0

1/1980 REVISED. 2/1981 REVISED.

TOBACCO

AREA HARVESTED : YIELD 2 PRODUCTION

: END
1980 1981

IND
1981 3 1979 5

+
1980 3

POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
500 S10 1,650 1,620 825 B26
3,200 3,500 3,200 1,539 1,601 1,609 4,925 5,602
109300 10,300 9,900 2,259 1,975 2, 050 23,175 20,343
53,000 55,000 53,000 1,905 2,019 2,250 100,965 110,550
by 100 7,300 7,400 1,950 2,300 2,250 11,895 16,790
173,700 200,900 236,600 1,976 2,075 2,168 343,145 416, 962
80 60 50 700 700 900 36 se
19,500 23,900 23,000 1,130 1,101 1,250 22,035 25,320
990 1,180 14140 1,500 1,582 1,585 1,667
24500 2,500 2,600 2405 2,105 2, 300
337,800 379,700 367,600 1,840 2,008 2,043
97800 11,200 12,800 17435 1,788 = 1,550

41,200 13,000 15,600 1,580 1,900
57,000 65,000 68,000 2,065 1,930

69,090 64,760 75,200 19745 1,728
67/240 65,380 69,740 1,630 1,655
1,300 1,500 1,500 1,275 1,500

12,900 12,600 12,700 1,942 1,978
827,200 917,610 958,130 1,645 1,945

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEU FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1987 B-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Pasture and Range Conditions*
September 1, 1981

© Good to excellent
2 Poor to fair

Very poor

(GHB Severe drought
GEE Extreme drought

"AS REPORTED BY
CROP CORRESPONDENTS

* INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON-IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

USDA Neg. SRS 334 - 81(9)

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITIONS*
melt September 1, 1980

2) Good to exceltent
FE Poor to fair

Very poor

£2X) Severe drought
GEY Extreme drought

*AS REPORTED BY
CROP CORRESPONDENTS

* INDICATES CURRENT SUPPLY OF PASTURE FEED FOR GRAZING ON NON-IRRIGATED PASTURES AND
RANGES RELATIVE TO THAT EXPECTED FROM EXISTING STANDS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER
| CONDITIONS,

USDA NEG. ESCS 258-80 (9)

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Feed Crop Prospects*
September 1, 1981

3 Good to excellent

C3 Fair
Poor - ‘RELATIVE CONDITIONS OR
I very poor PROSPECTS AS INDICATED BY

REPORTS FROM CROP CORRE-
SPONDENTS ON "ALL CROPS*

ORG Near failure

USDA

Neg. SRS 335 - 81(9)

FEED CROP PROSPECTS*
September 1, 1980

TJ Good to excetient

ES) Fair
Poor
GQ Very poor PROSPECTS AS INDICATED BY
GHD News failure AEPORTS FROM CROP CORRE
SPONDENTS ON “ALL CROPS”
USDA

NEG. ESCS 259-80 (9)

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

: AREA HARVESTED YIELO By PRODUCTION

z 2 IND 3 IND ¢ 3 i] IND
1979 ¢ 1980 3 1981 = 1979 1980 2 1981 ¢ 1979 3 1980 3 1981

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
502 405 S20 61,0 36,0 55.0 30,622 14,580 28,600
45 ‘ao 30 115,0 100.0 130.0 5,175 4,000 3,900
35 37 42 58.0 28.0 65.0 2,030 1,036 2,730
260 270 275° «117.0 «135.0 = 130.0 30,420 36,450 35,750
760 760 B30 127.0 118.0 132.0 96,520 89,680 109,560
189 177 183 102.0 72.0 73.0 16,218 12,744 13,725
339 328 365 53.0 47,0 45,0 17,967 15,416 16,425
1,550 1,300 1,450 65.0 42,0 50.0 100,750 $4,600 72,500
50 30 33 88.0 94.0 92.0 4,400 4-700 4,876
11,050 11,960 141,300 128,0 93.0 127.0 1,414,400 1,065,780 1,435,100
6,030 6,280 6,000 112.0 96.0 100.0 675,360 602,880 600,000
13,100 13,300 13,500 127,0 110.0 127.0 1,663,700 1,463,000 1,714,500
1,470 1,240 1,300 117.0 94,0 118.0 171,990 116,560 153,400
1,300 1,480 1,530 102.0 70,0 97,0 132,600 103,600 148,410
a1 30 28 54,0 46.0 60,0 2,214 1,380 1,680
595 640 660 99.0 72.0 93,0 58,905 46,080 61,380
2,500 2,600 2,800 95.0 95.0 95.0 237,500 247,000 266,000
6,060 - 6,290 6,700 100.0 97,0 107.0 606,000 610,130 716,900
110 88 130 52.0 25.0 58,0 5,720 2,464 7,540
2,330 2,070 1,950 103.0 53.0 108.0 239,990 109,710 210,600
10 8 9 77,40 74.0 75,0 770 592 675
7,150 7,100 6,900 115.0 65.0 212.0 822,250 603,500 772,800
95 103 125 90.0 75.0 86,0 8,550 7,725 10,750
74 85 80 = 109.0 85.0 8,066 7,225 7,600
650 730 800 92.0 93.0 59,800 67,890 74,400
1,690 1,730 14830 76.0 60,0 126,440 103,800 133,590
313 290 450 76.0 58.0 23,788 16,820 36,000
3,630 3,900 3,800 115.0 113.0 417/450 940,700 349,600
75 7s 65 110.0 70.0 8,250 5,250 6175
12 4 15 105,0 106.0 1,260 66 1,725
1,280 1,260 1/339 95.0 75.0 121,600 7000 123,690
509 515 $70 80,0 48.0 40,720 24,720 34,200
2,850 2,300 2,300 74.0 53.0 210,900 121,900 142,600
620 640 660 65.0 45.0 52,700 28,600 36,100
1,260 1,300 1,250 105.0 90.0 132,300 117,000 137,500
16 15 15 94.0 100.0 1,504 1,500 1,425
615 59S 600 83,0 55.0 51,045 32,725 49,800
97 94 100 -:123,0 = 120.0 11,931 11,280 11,500
59 58 63 89,0 89.0 5,251 5,162 5,670
3,080 3,350 3,500 103.0 += 104.0 317,240 348,400 378,000
29 37 35 87.0 97.0 . 2,523 3,589 3,045
72,400 73,061 74,143 109.7 91.0 107.1 7,938,819 6,647,534 7,940,421

1/ ESTIMATES FORK CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 8-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Soybeans were in fair to mostly good condition, except in the Corn Belt where some excellent
conditions were reported, and in parts of the Delta where dry weather resulted in poor to fair
conditions. In the 18 major producing States, nearly all of the crop had bloomed by August 30
and 86 percent had set pods--3 points behind last year. Leaves were turning color in
early-planted fields and, in a few fields, leaves had started shedding.

Cotton continued in fair to good condition. Bolls had opened on 27 percent of the
acreage--about equal to last year's progress. Harvesting neared completion in the Rio Grande
Valley of Texas and advanced to the Coastal Bend area. Arizona cotton developed well ahead of
normal under ideal growing conditions. Harvesting was just getting underway in Mississippi.

In the 7 major States, heading of grain sorghum reached 93 percent complete by the end of
August and 25 percent of the acreage was mature. Acreage harvested by this date was: Texas--65
percent, Oklahoma--2 percent, and Missouri--T percent.

Winter wheat harvest was virtually completed except in the northwest. Plowing for the 1982
crop became more widespread with the operation 25 percent completed in Indiana. Oklahoma
producers were over half finished preparing seedbeds. Seeding of the 1982 crop started on a
limited basis. In the major States, spring wheat harvest was 84 percent completed, well ahead
of the average progress of 67 percent. Combining was finished in South Dakota.

FOOD GRAINS UP_17 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR

Food grain production (wheat, rice and rye) is expected to total 83.4 million metric tons,
17 percent more than last year. Forecast production as of September 1 increased fractionally
from a month earlier as a result of a fractional increase in total wheat and a 1 point increase
in rice,

FEED GRAIN PRODUCTION INCREASES 22 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR

Production of the feed grains (corn, sorghum, oats and barley) is expected to total 241
million metric tons, up 22 percent from a year earlier. Compared with: last month, corn
production was up 3 percent and sorghum 4 percent, but oats and barley were both down 2 percent.

CORN FOR GRAIN: Production of corn for grain is now forecast at a record high 7.94 billion

bushels (202 million metric tons}, up 3 percent from the August I forecast and
19 percent above last year's drought stricken crop. Prospects as of September 1 indicate a U.S.
yield of 107.1 bushels per acre, up 2.8 bushels from last month's forecast and 16.1 bushels
above last year.

Continued good weather conditions during August improved yield prospects in the major Corn
Belt States. Iowa, the leading State, is expecting a yield of 127 bushles per acre, up 2
bushels from last month. Other major States showing increases were Illinois--up 7 bushels,
Indiana--up 6, Missouri--up 3, and Minnesota and Nebraska each up 2 bushels from a month earlier.

In general, crop development is running later than throughout much of the Corn Belt. In
Minnesota and Wisconsin, corn is late and there is concern about damage from an early frost.
Dry weather and a )Jate frost is needed to mature the crop. In Indiana and Ohio where planting
was delayed by wet weather, recent development has been good. However, there is concern that an
early frost could be disastrous to late planted fields. The acreage intended for grain harvest
at 74.1 million acres (30.0 million hectares) remains unchanged from last month. This is 1.08
million acres more than was harvested in 1980.

On September 1, crop maturity in the Corn Belt ranged from 18 percent dented in Minnesota to
78 percent dented in Missouri. Progress of denting is behind last year and average in all the
Corn Belt States except Missouri. In the 17 major States, 43 percent was dented by the first of
the month compared with 63 percent a year ago.

Harvest is gaining momentum in the South but is just getting underway in the Corn Belt.
Warm, dry weather is needed for maturing the crop, particularly in the northern Corn Belt.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


DURUM WHEAT

AREA HARVESTED YIELD
: IND 3 : : IND ¢ 3 z IND
1979 ¢ 1980 & 1981 3 1979 ¢ 1980 & 1981 8 1979 3 19860 ¢ 1961

PRODUCTION

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

70 155 198 80,0 81,0 3,250 12,400 16,038

4s 100 165 78.0 89,0 34600 7,600 14,685

7 120 135 28.0 36,0 2,849 3,360 $,130
325 400 47s 19,0 27,0 6,625 7,600 12,825
3,250 3,850 4,450 19.0 30.0 84,500 73,150 133,500
165 215 225 19,0 23.0 3,630 4,085 5,175
3,932 4,840 5,648 2761 22.4 33.2 106,654 108,395 187,353

A/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT

4,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
COLO 172 a1 45 40 64,0 60.0 59,0 2,624 2,700
IDAHO 620 640 555 62.0 69.0 65.0 38,440 44,160
MINN 3 2450 2,980 3,300 35.0 32.5 39,0 65,750 96,850
MONT 3 26550 2,550 2,750 20.5 22. 26.0 $2,275 $7,375
NEV Vi 13 17 16 50.0 50.0 650 1,020
N DAK 3 6,230 S,700 7,200 26.5 28.0 165,095 405,450
OREG 1/7 245 150 ais 3840 38.0 94310 5,400
S$ DAK 3 2,090 2,080 2,250 22.0 21.0 45,960 37,440
UTAH 1/3 40 30 30 41.0 47.0 14640 1,440
WASH : 780 410 220 30.0 38.0 23,400 17,220
wis wr 16 23 28 33.0 31.0 328 713
wo isi 20 14 12 24,0 22,0 480 252
us : 15,095 14,639 16,516 26,2 30.5 A26,1T2 370,020

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAK CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

RICE

PRODUCTION

: 3 IND = t : IND
1979 1980 1981 1979 7 1980 1981 3 1979 3 1980 1981

1,000 ACRES POUNDS: 1,000 CwT
1,020.0 1,280.0 14560.0 4,320 4,110 4,400 44,064 52,615 69,520
522.0 548.0 580.0 6,520 6,440 6,700 34,042 35,301 38,860
5286.0 565.0 660.0 3,910 3,950 3,600 20,643 20,768 25,080
207.0 240.0 335.0 4,050 3,840 4,100 8,384 9,226 13,735
35.0 56.0 77.0 3,810 4,180 4,200 4,333 2,341 3,234
3557.0 585.0 587.0 4,220 4,230 4,800 235,981 24,812 28,176

2,869.0 3,295.40 3,619.0 4,599 4,403

4,677 131,947 145,063 178,605

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 B-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION See

Board
Released: September 11, 1981 Statistical Reporting
3:00 P.M. ET Service

U.S. Department
of Agriculture

Washington, D.C.
20250

HIGHLIGHTS

CORN production is forecast at a record high 7.94 billion bushels (202 million
metric tons), 3 percent more than the August 1 forecast and 19 percent
more than a year ago. The September 1 estimate is up fractionally from
the previous record set in 1979. The 90 percent confidence interval for
the September 1 production forecast is 7.24 to 8.64 billion bushels.

SORGHUM GRAIN production is forecast at 864 million bushels (21.9 million
metric tons), up 47 percent from last year's small crop.

FEED GRAIN production (corn, sorghum, oats, and barley combined) is expected to
total 241 million metric tons, up 22 percent from 1980.

SOYBEAN production is estimated at 2.09 billion bushels (56.9 million metric
tons), up 4 percent from August 1 and 15 percent above last year's crop.
The 90 percent confidence interval for this 1981 production forecast is
1.94 to 2.24 billion bushels.

ALL_WHEAT production is forecast at a record high 2.75 billion bushels (74.8
million metric tons), 16 percent more than last year. Durum wheat produc-
tion, up 73 percent, other spring wheat, up 36 percent and winter wheat
production, up 9 percent from last year. The 90 percent confidence
interval for this all wheat production forecast is 2.69 to 2.81 billion
bushels.

FOOD GRAIN production (wheat, rye and rice combined) is expected to total 83.4
million metric tons, 17 percent above 1980.

ALL_COTTON production is forecast at.15.5 million bales, 5 percent above the
August 1 forecast and 39 percent more than producton in 1980. The 90 per-
cent confidence interval for this 1981 production forecast is 13.6 to 17.4
million bales.

ALL TOBACCO production is forecast at 1.97 billion pounds (896 thousand metric
tons), up 11 percent from the 1.78 billion pounds (809 thousand metric
tons) produced in 1980.

CrPr 2-2 (9-81) For Information Call: (202) 2127


RICE: Production of the 1981 crop is forecast at a record high 179 million hundredweight (8.10
“~~ million metric tons), 1 percent more than last month's forecast, and 23 percent more than
last year's production. The larger production results from a substantial increase in harvested
acreage and higher prospective yields than a year ago.

Nationally, yields are expected to average 4677 pounds per acre compared with 4403 pounds
last year. Yield prospects are above 1980 in all six rice producing States.

Growing conditions during August improved prospects in Texas and the yield forecast
increased 300 pounds per acre. This was partially offset by decline of 60 pounds per acre in
Louisiana and 50 pounds per acre in Mississippi.

Late spring rains hampered weed control efforts in most of the major rice producing States
and may be a factor limiting yields in some areas. Rice heading for the five major rice States
reached 91 percent by the end of August, while harvest advanced to 33 percent. Harvest was
nearing completion in Texas and was underway in all other States except California, where the
crop was 70 percent headed.

SOYBEANS: September 1, soybean production is forecast at 2.09 billion bushels (56.9 million

metric tons), up 4 percent from the August 1 forecast, and 15 percent above last
year's crop. Yield prospects, at 31.2 bushels per acre, are up 1.0 bushel from last month and
4,4 bushels above last year.

On September 1, soybeans rated fair to mostly good except in the Corn Belt where some
excellent conditions were reported and in Mississippi and Louisiana where dry weather resulted
in poor to fair conditions. Nearly al} of the crop had bloomed and, in the 18 major producing
States, 86 percent had set pods--3 points behind last year. Leaves were turning color in
early-planted fields and had started shedding in some fields.

September 1 yield prospects improved 1.0 bushel from a month ago in Nebraska, Indiana, and
Towa, and 2.0 bushels in Illinois and Missouri. Kansas yield, at 29.0 bushels, is up 4.0
bushels from last month. Yields in both Indiana and Kansas will be records if realized. Ohio's
yield is forecast at 29,0 bushels, 1.0 bushel below last month. Yields in other States of the
North Central Region are unchanged.

Ory conditions during the month in Mississippi and Louisiana resulted in yield declines of
1.0 and 2.0 bushels, respectively. Yield prospects increased from last month by 2.0 bushels in
Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee while Texas and Alabama yields remained unchanged.

Improved moisture conditions in Georgia boosted the yield outlook from last month by 6.0

bushels. Other Atlantic States were showing increases of 1.0 to 2.0 bushels from August, except
Virginia. where yield was expected to be unchanged.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

RUG ABES

2s

ak

wh

wh

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PU

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*SEPTEMSER FORECAST

FLAXSEED: Flaxseed production is forecast at 8-08 million bushels (205 thousand metric tons) un-
changed from last month's forecast but down 1 percent from last year. Yield per acre

at 12.6 bushels is up 1.0 bushel from last year and unchanged from last month. Individual State

yields for the three States in the estimating program were also unchanged from a month earlier.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 198) A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Yield prospects declined in the Pacific Northwest during August. Washington's yield
dropped 10 bushels and Oregon's yield was down 6 bushels from last month. The drop in these
States was a result of several factors including more damage from yellow dwarf virus than
anticipated, poor pollination and the extreme hot August temperatures which did not allow
complete kernel development. In Idaho, the yield was down 1 bushel from last month but the
forecast yield at 63.0 bushels per acre is still very good. North Dakota and Colorado each
showed a 1 bushel per acre increase from last month. The yield in the other major States is
unchanged from last month.

Harvest of the barley crop progressed rapidly during August and was well ahead of normal in
most of the major producing States. In North Dakota, the largest barley producing State, 92
percent was combined by August 30 compared with 62 percent last year and the average of 79
percent. In Montana, harvest was 65 percent complete by September 1 and, in Minnesota and South
Dakota, combining was virtually complete.

ALL WHEAT: Production of all wheat in 1981 is forecast at a record high 2.75 billion bushels

(74.8 million metric tons), 16 percent more than the previous record set ast year
and up fractionally from the August 1 forecast. A substantial increase in acreage for harvest
and a moderate increase in average yield from last year resulted in the record high production.
Nationally, yield per harvested acre is expected to average 34.) bushels compared with 33.4
bushels in 1980 and the record high 34.2 bushels in 1979. Area for harvest is up 14 percent
from last year.

WINTER WHEAT: Production of 1981 winter wheat is a record high 2.06 billion bushels (56.0

million metric tons), 9 percent more than last year but down fractionally from
expectations on August 1. Increased production from Jast year resulted from a larger acreage
harvested this year, although lower yields partially offset the greater acreage.

Average yield per harvested acre at 35.2 bushels is down from last year's 36.8 bushels and
the 1979 yield of 36.9 bushels. Estimated area harvested of 58.5 million acres (23.7 million
hectares) is 14 percent more than last year.

The winter wheat forecasting period extends to September 1 in Idaho, Montana, Oregon and
Washington. Forecasts for all other States were carried forward from previous reports. Harvest
was 87 percent completed in Idaho by September 1, well ahead of normal. Montana reported
excellent harvesting weather during August with 95 percent harvested by September 1. Weather
continued warm and dry in Oregon with 94 percent of the crop harvested. Harvest was winding
down in Washington with 93 percent of the acreage cut by the end of the month.

OURUM WHEAT: Producers expect to harvest 187 million bushels (5.10 million metric tons) of

durum wheat in 1981, 73 percent more than last year, and 1 percent more than the
August 1 forecast. Yields are expected to average 33.2 bushels per acre compared with 22.4
bushels last year, and 33.0 bushels last month, Average yields were up 1 bushel per acre from
last month in Minnesota and Montana, and up 2 bushels’ in South Dakota. North Dakota's yield was
unchanged.

Harvest was well ahead of normal in North Dakota with 75 percent harvested despite delays
caused by showers and high humidity. Some sprouting and bleaching of grain in limited areas was
reported.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Growers expect to harvest 504 million bushels (13.7 million metric tons)

of- spring wheat other than durum this year compared with 370 million
bushels (10.1 million metric tons) last year. The September 1 forecast is 36 percent greater
than last year and 1 percent more than the August 1 forecast. Yields are expected to average
30.5 bushels per acre compared with 25.3 bushels a year ago, and 30.0 bushels last month.
Minnesota and South Dakota registered per acre yield increases from last month of 2 bushels and
1 bushel, respectively, but these increases were partially offset by 2 bushel per acre declines
in both Idaho and Washington.

Harvest of spring wheat other than durum was 84 percent completed by the end of August in
North Dakota, well ahead of last year's 57 percent and the normal of 62 percent. Some bleaching
of grain occurred in wetter areas, but damage was limited. Harvest was 93 percent complete in
Minnesota compared with 81 percent last year and the normal of 72 percent. The Montana harvest
was 65 percent complete compared with 45 percent last year and a normal of 55 percent.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


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AUGUST WEATHER SUMMARY

Warm, moist air from the Pacific Ocean moved over Mexico into southwestern United States,
augmented by additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms were
widespread over the middle and southern Plateau and in the southern Rockies. The heaviest rain
was in eastern New Mexico, western Texas, and central Rockies. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches brought
August rainfall in the central and southern Rockies and western Texas to well above normal.
Frontal systems dumped large amounts of rain into the mid-and upper Mississippi Valley, the
central and northern Plains, and in most of the Great Lakes region. Tropical systems accounted
for heavy rain in southern Florida, the southeastern coast, New England, and along the western
guif coast. A heat wave persisted in much of the West most of the month. Some cooling occurred
along the west coast late in the month but the warm air moved eastward over the Plateau and into
the northern Plains.

FIRST WEEK...Heavy thunderstorms broke out during the first 2 days of the month along a
squall line from central Kansas into Wisconsin. For the remainder of the week, a frontal system
moved slowly through the eastern United States, covering most of the area through the Rockies
and eastward with showers and thunderstorms. Some heavy amounts fell in Arizona, New Mexico,
and southwestern Texas. A heat wave in the West pushed average high temperatures to record
levels.

SECOND WEEK...Showers and thunderstorms covered nearly all of the Nation. Thunderstorms
even reached into the desert areas of southern California. Deluges of 2 to 5 inches covered
eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Warm, moist air from Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico flowed
northward and covered most of the country and a succession of cool air masses pushed
southeastward out of northwestern Canada, triggering showers and thunderstorms ahead of them.
At week's end, -tropical storm Dennis began spreading heavy rain over southern Florida. The heat
wave from central California through Washington continued and spread into the northern Plains,
but it was cooler west of the Cascades and in the Plains by the end of the week.

THIRD WEEK...Tropical storm Dennis moved slowly northward along the east coast to the Cape
Hatteras area and then moved out to sea. More than 16 inches of rain were reported in parts of
the Everglades. A large high pressure system moved slowly through the Great Lakes and to the
east coast, leaving fair weather in its wake. However, a low pressure system in the Gulf of
Mexico spread showers and thunderstorms throughout the South and on the back side of the high
pressure into the Plains, Rockies, and Plateau. At the end of the week, the remnant of "Dennis"
brought some heavy showers to New England. The West cooled somewhat but warm air returned to
the northern Plains.

FOURTH WEEK...A ridge of high pressure persisted along the east coast and kept precipitation
very light. A frontal system moved to the middle Mississippi Valley and then slowly eastward
and southward before dissipating. Showers and thunderstorms were frequent and occasionally
severe in the mid and upper Mississippi Valley and in parts of the Lakes region. A tropical
depression spread heavy rain along the coast of southern Texas while frontal waves kept moderate
rain in central Florida. Cooler air moved onto the west coast but the Plateau and northern
Plains remained hot. (Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility).

CROP DEVELOPMENT

August precipitation provided adequate moisture supplies in major row crop production
regions. Subnormal temperatures slowed plant growth in many areas of the Corn Belt where
development was already late because of the delayed planting season. Progress of the cotton
crop continued ahead of normal.

At the beginning of September, corn condition ranged from poor to mostly fair in the
Southeast to excellent in many areas of the Corn Belt. Stands were reported poor to fair in the
Southeast due to dry weather earlier in the season. By the end of August, 82 percent of the
crop in the 17 major producing States was in or past the dough stage, 43 percent was in or past
the dent stage, and 9 percent was mature. Harvesting was underway as far north as Virginia and
Kentucky and ranged up to 67 percent complete in Georgia.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


BARLEY

YIELD : PRODUCTION

AREA HARVESTED

STATE wee ee mee w ncn ewe w remem een econ nnewennncce en ensenennenecunennecences eoweenene

: : IND ¢ z 3 IND 3 : : INO

3 1979 3 1989 = 1981 $ 1979 $ 1980 ¢ 1981 ¢ 1979 3 1980 ¢ 1981

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

t
ARIZ 173 43 50 40 7540 79,0 90.0 3,225 3,950 3,600
CALIF 1/2 790 712 655 60.0 62.0 56.0 47,400 44,144 36,680
cota : 275 245 295 68,0 65.0 66,0 18,700 15,925 20,060
DEL = 1/2 25 25 25 45,0 49.0 49.0 1,125 1,225 1,225
IDAHO 3 930 880 1,070 59.0 67.0 63,0 54,870 58,960 67,410
ILL est 7 6 47,0 43.0 3e9 256
KANS 1/2 $2 39 60 44.0 41.0 34,0 2,268 2,419 2,040
KY ws 25 29 32 50.0 55.0 52.0 1,250 1,595 1,664
TMD ise 78 70 75 49.0 $2.0 55.0 3,622 3,640 4,125
MICH Ase 20 eu 23 47,0 53.0 50.0 940 1,413 1,150
MINN : 770 615 990 53.0 42.5 56.0 40,810 34,638 55,440
MONT : 1,040 1,050 1,300 39,0 42,0 44,0 40,560 44,100 57,200
NEBR 1/2 28 25 25 43.0 38.0 38,0 1,204 950 950
NEV 1/8 27 28 30 70.0 65.0 1,620 1,960 1,950
NJ si 14 15 13 53,0 53,0 714 795 689
N MEX 1/2 eT 35 30 57.0 55.0 1,566 1,995 1,650
NY ars 41 ce 47.0 5268 S17
nC ast 6a 60 62 48.0 50.0 3,264 2,880 3,100
N DAK 3 1,650 1,500 2,260 32,0 48.0 75,900 48,000 108,480
OHIO as: 9 8 52.0 468 416
OKLA 1/3 55 So So 33.0 31,0 2,530 1,650 1,550
ORES : 160 155 195, 05.0 60.0 8,320 10,075 11,700
PA iss 85 15 81 50.0 54.0 3,995 3,750 4,374
sc we 23 23 e7 44,0 46,0 1,304 1,012 1,242
S$ 0AK  ¢ 520 420 500 33.0 33.0 20,800 13,860 16,500
TENN 2/3 5 4 42.0 230 168
TEX 1st 50 36 50 30.0 42.0 2,300 1,080 2,100
UTA 3 145 148 150 73.0 73.0 10,440 10,804 10,950
vA we 100 90 97 $1.0 61.0 5,200 4,590 5,917
WASH : 315 420 760 75.0 58.0 17,010 31,500 44,080
w VA Ls3 10 9 10 44,0 45.0 410 396 450
WIS 1st 2a 26 31 59.0 51,0 1,176 1,534 1,581
wro z 145 133 134 65.0 61.0 8,700 8,645 8,174
us 2 7,522 7,233 9,070 49.6 52.5 382,798 358,544 476,031

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
2/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUE® AFTER 1980 CROP.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 B-4 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20250 U.S, DEPARTMENT OF > a
AGRICULTURE
AGR 101
OFFICIAL BUSINESS FIRST CLASS UsMaL

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To stop mailing [J or to change your
address [) send this sheet with label
intact, showing new address, to Crop
Reporting Board Publications, SRS. U.S.
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Building. 14th & independence Ave. S.W.,
Wash., D.C. 20250.



ORY EOISLE BEANS wv

AREA HARVESTED
z 3 s IND =
’ 1979 1980 1961 2 1979 5

PRODUCTION

CRUP AND STATE

t 1000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 cwT
LARGE LIMA BEANS
CALIF 35.0 30,0 1,960 2,150 2,050 829 753 O18
BABY LIMA BEANS
CALIF 20.0 27.0 2,260 2,250 2,200 656 450 soa
BEANS OTHER THAN LIMAS
CALIF 165.0 188,0 1,600 1,640 1,690 2,445 2,706
ALL DRY EDIBLE BEANS
CALIF 220.0 245.0 1,739 1,777 1,790 3,600 3,909
COLO 200.0 220.0 1,010 1,080 1,250 1,667 2-160
IDAHO 179.0 240,0 1,850 1,660 1,800 2,460 3,329
KANS 24.0 33,0 1,000 1/400 1,400 170
MICH 560.0 630.0 1,400 1/330 1,250 6,440 7,948
MINN 84,0 103.0 1,560 1,150 1,300 562
MONT 11,0 11,0 1,800 1,600 4,600 175
NEBR 150,0 215.0 1,600 1,720 1,700 241600 2,560
NY 51,0 49,0 1,150 1,300 1,300 460
N DAK 255.0 360.0 1,350 1,050 1,200 1,418 2,678
UTAH 11,0 13,0 400 380 450 32
WASH 54.0 66,0 2,000 2,000 1,850 800 1,080
Wyo 37.0 42,0 1,900 1,980 1,900 532
us

1,836.0 2,231.0 1,480 1,422 1,437 20/476 267100

1/ EXCLUDES BEANS GROWN FOR GARDEN SEED,
27 ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

DRY EDIBLE PEAS vs

AREA HARVESTED

PRODUCTION

IDAHO 51.0 63.0 $2.0 1,380 2,300 2,000 704 1,449 1,040
WASH 85.0 72,0 60.0 1/570 2,550 2,000 1,335 1,836 1,200
us 136.0 135.0 112.0 1,499 2,433 2,000 2,039 = 3,285 2240

1/ EXCLUDES BOTH WRINKLED SEED PEAS AND AUSTRIAN WINTER
PEAS,

SWEETPOTATOES

AREA HARVESTED

YIELD 3 PRODUCTION

STATE

: 2 IND = 3
1979 § 1980 ¢ 1961 ¢ 1979 1980 +

CHT

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP.
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELO PER HECTARE

AREA HARVESTED

: INDICATED : : INDICATED :
1981; «1980: 198?

HECTARES METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 060 30 004 930 §.71 6.72 168 855 140 196 476 550 201 695 980
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 470 5 517 140 2.90 3.98 14.935 810 21 171 270 21 942 450
OATS. 520 3 906 880 1,90 1.89 6 641 940 7 582 730 7 394 750
BARLEY 120 3 670 540 2.67 2.82 7 806 370 10 522 960 10 364 350
ALL WHEAT 500 32 654 030 2.25 2.29 64 491 740 74 77) 830 74 845 870
WINTER $40 23 684 480 2.48 2.37 51471 420 56 195 870 56 042 380
DURUM 700 2 285 690 1.57 2.23 2 950 030 5 070 060 5 098 910
OTHER SPRING 260 6 683 860 1.70 2.05 10 070 290 =13 505 900 13 704 580
RICE 450 1 545 510 4.93 5.24 6 579 950 8 047 090 8 101 390
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 640 27 071 330 1.80 2.10 49 453 280 54 906 480 56 864 640
FLAXSEED. $00 . 259 000 0.73 0.79 206 460 205 320 205 320
PEANUTS FOR NUTS 080 620 960 1.85 2.82 1 046 820 1 674 770 1 752 490
ALL COTTON 900 5 582 460 0.45 0.60 2 421 540 3 219 970 3 376 300
UPLAND 318 880 5 557 650 0.45 0.60 2 398 850 3 199 310 3 355 200
AMER-PIMA 29 020 24 810 0.78 0.85 22 690 20 660 21 100
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 743 016 902 860 1.59 1.61 T 183 870 1 488 410 1 454 660
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 54 630 45 330 2.73 2.24 149 000 99 250 101 600
SUMMER POTATOES 1/ 36 460 38 450 21.15 23.52 771 060 901 280 904 320
SWEETPOTATOES 41 360 44 350 = 12.01 12.77 496 820 583 720 566 260
TOBACCO 371 340 387 730 2.18 2.31 808 580 891 410 895 620
SUGARBEETS 480 970 496 030 44.32 46.96 21317 930 = 23 124 140 23 294 690
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED 296 520 300 930 82.49 84.01 24 460 420 25 398 450 25 280 520
PEPPERMINT OL 32 900 27 520 0.06 - 0.07 2 090 3770 1 790
SPEARMINT OIL 12 670 11940 (0.08 0.07 970 870 870
HOPS: 15 010 17 440 2.28 2.09 34 270 36 610 36 500
PEARS 810 840 773 :190 776 820
GRAPES 5 075 790 4 071 810 3 751 570
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) 152 410 2/140 610 140 610
PRUNES AND PLUMS
(EXCL CALIF) 69 490 62 600 62 140
CRANBERRIES 122 360 3/118 980
PECANS 83 230 148 780
FILBERTS : 13 970 13 880
WALNUTS ( CALIF) : 178 720 195 040 195 040

a - 2/ UL 1, 1981. 3/ RELEASED AUG 18, 1981.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

INDICATE INDICATED.
1981 1/ 1981 1/

INDICATED
1981 1/

HECTARES METRIC TONS

RYE 710 267 500 1,54 1.62 413 150 433 930
ALL HAY 560 24 056 390 4,94 5.19 118 904 700 124 968 330

ALFALFA 800 10 588 710 6.82 6.91 72 452 330 73 159 010

ALL OTHER 760 13 467 680 3.46 3.85 46 452 390 51 809 320
POTATOES

WINTER 650 4 780 23.05 24.0) 107 180 114 760

‘SPRING 2/ 980 31 730 26.71 29.67 774 140 941 290

FALL 2/— 080 421 970 30.43 12 084 910

TOTAL 2/ 170 496 920 29.41 13 737 290
APPLES, COM'L 4 004 470 3 664 330
PEACHES: 1 394 150 1 322 490
SWEET CHERRIES : 155 760 121 110
TART CHERRIES : 98 930 65 270
APRICOTS 107 950 97 700
NECTARINES (CALIF) 174 630 181 440
PLUMS (CALIF) 145 150 163 290
OLIVES (CALIF) 100 700 39 920
ALMONDS (CALIF) 146 060 204 120

J/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1980 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 AWG CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SWEETPOTATOES: The season's second forecast of sweetpotato production in the United States is

placed at 12.5 million cwt (566 thousand metric tons), down 3 percent from
August 1, but 14 percent above last year's record low output. Expected yield at 114 cwt per
acre is 3 cwt below last month but 7 cwt above the 1980 yield. Area expected to be harvested,
at 110 thousand acres (44.4 thousand hectares), is 7 percent greater than 1980 but 4 percent
Jess than 1979,

The decline in the production forecast results from reduced crop prospects in North Carolina
and Texas. The North Carolina crop is now forecast at 4.68 million cwt, 8 percent below last
month but 10 percent above 1980. The Tarheel crop began the month of August in mostly
good condition but began to deteriorate the third week of the month when excessive rains drenched
the southeastern part of the State. Many reporters in that area indicated significant losses.
In Texas, harvest got underway in late August and the effects of wet conditions early in the
season are now apparent. Neither size nor quality of the crop is as good as earlier expected.
Texas sweetpotato production is now forecast at 702 thousand cwt, down 5 percent from last month.

The Louisiana crop is generally in fair to good condition. Harvest was 38 percent complete
on September 1, -- ahead of last year and the five year average. Production is expected: to
total 2.34 million cwt, 10 percent above last year. In California growing conditions in most
areas have been excellent. Warm temperatures have resulted in rapid growth and the crop is
sizing very well. Production is estimated at 1,60 million cwt, 6 percent greater than 1980.

TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 1.97 billion pounds (896 thousand metric

tons), up 12 percent from the 1.78 billion pounds (809 thousand metric tons) produced
in 1980 and fractionally more than last month's forecast. Most of the increased production is
in Burley tobacco. All tobacco average yield per acre is expected to reach 2061 pounds.

Flue-cured production is forecast at 1.10 billion pounds (501 thousand metric tons), 2
percent more than a year ago and 1 percent above last month's forecast. Yield per acre is up
109 pounds from 1980. Harvest is later than normal in South Carolina and Georgia, ahead of
normal in Virginia and North Carolina, and complete in Florida. Marketing continues to be
active in all States.

Burley output is expected to total 710 million pounds (322 thousand metric tons), 27 percent
larger than last year's crop. Yield is indicated at 2181 pounds, 168 pounds above 1980.
Forecast production is virtually the same as last month. Yields held steady except for a
decline in Ohio. Prospects remained good in all States except Ohio which continues to suffer
from excessively wet conditions. Blue mold continued to spread throughout Kentucky and North
Carolina but damage has been minimal so far. Some blue mold has been reported in Indiana.
Harvest is underway in all States, with Tennessee 23 percentage points ahead of normal.

Fire-cured production of 40.4 million pounds (18.4 thousand metric tons) is 12 percent above
last year but virtually the same as last month. Growers plan to harvest 24.1 thousand acres
(9750 hectares), with a yield of 1678 pounds.

Southern Maryland tobacco production is forecast at 43.4 million pounds (19.7 thousand
metric tons), up 66 percent from 1980 and 9 percent above the August 1 forecast. The acreage
increase from 1980 in North Carolina and Virginia and the addition of acreage in South Carolina
largely accounts for the increase in production. Yield is indicated to be 1269 pounds per acre,

nearly reaching the record of 1275 pounds established in 1978.

Prospects for Dark air-cured at 17.7 million pounds {8050 metric tons) are 7 percent above
the 1980 crop. Expectations increased 13 thousand pounds from last month. Acreage is up 6
percent and yield up 5 pounds from last year.

All_cigar-type production is forecast at 58.5 million pounds (26.5 thousand metric tons), 2
percent below 1980 and 1 percent less than on August 1. Cigar filler production is fractionally
higher than last year. Binder production is down 3 percent while wrapper production fell 13
percent from 1980.

SUGARBEETS: Production of sugarbeets is forecast at 25.7 million tons (23.3 million metric ©

tons), up one percent from the August 1 forecast and 9 percent above 1980
production. Average yield per acre is estimated at 20.9 tons compared with 19.8 tons in 1980.
Acres for harvest at 1.23 million acres (496 thousand hectares) is 3 percent more than the
acreage harvested in 1980.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PEARS: The final forecast of the 1981 U.S. pear crop is 856 thousand tons (777 thousand metric

tons), a fractional increase from August 1 but 4 percent less than the 1980 crop. The
increase from August 1 resulted from a 5000 ton increase in the forecast for pears other than
Bartlett in Oregon, which was partially offset by a 1000 ton decrease in expected production in
New York.

The Bartlett crop in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at 585 thousand tons
(531 thousand metric tons), unchanged from the August 1 forecast but 4 percent less than last
year. Harvest was nearing completion on September 1 in Washington and California, and the Hood
River and Medford areas of Oregon. Quality has been generally good in all three States. The
market in California has been soft but the situation has been eased by wineries purchasing some
of the fruit for crushing.

Production of Pacific Coast pears other than Bartlett is forecast at 231 thousand tons (210
thousand metric tons), up 2 percent from a month earlier but 5 percent smaller than last year's
crop. Harvest in Washington started in late August and is expected to be complete by the end of
September. Harvest began in mid-August in California where quality is good and size is normal.
Prospects improved greatly in the Medford, Oregon area during August, leading to an increase of
5000 tons in the forecast for that State.

The pear harvest is nearing completion in Michigan where size and quality are good. In New
York, the harvest is well underway. Quality is good but sizing was below normal in some areas.

GRAPES: The U.S. grape crop is forecast at 4.14 mittion tons (3.75 milvion metric tons), 26
percent less than last year's record crop and 8 percent smaller than last month's
forecast.

Prospects in California, at 3.71 million tons, are down 9 percent from August 1 and down 28
percent from last year. The decrease in production between August 1 and September 1 resulted
from an 18 percent decrease in the estimated raisin type grape production. This reduction
reflects a drastic reduction in bunch counts from last year. The extremely hot summer caused
all grapes to mature about two weeks early. The quality of table and wine grapes is good and
movement of table grapes to market has been brisk with some new records set for weekly movements.

Prospects in Washington decreased 2 percent from August 1 as hot weather reduced berry size.
The Concord harvest is expected to start about September 24-26, -- a week Jater than normal.
There is no change in the forecast for New York where berries are developing normally for this
time of season. The impact on 1981 production from the severe winter damage to the vines is
still being assessed. Michigan received plentiful rainfall in August and cool nights and sunny
days are needed to build sugar levels.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: California prune production (dried basis) is forecast at 155 thousand tons

(141 thousand metric tons), unchanged from the July 1 forecast and 8 percent.
less than last year's crop. Harvest started in mid-August. Quality and sugar content are
reported to be excellent. A good dry away of about 3.0 pounds green to 1.0 pound dry is
expected.

Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at
68.5 thousand tons (62.1 thousand metric tons), down 1 percent from a month ago and 11 percent
less than last year. The decrease in the forecast was caused by hail damage to the Idaho crop.
Harvest of a good quality fresh market crop is underway in Michigan. Picking of the processing
crop will start after Labor Day. A good to heavy crop of early plums was harvested by growers
in eastern Orgeon but the late varieties were stressed by the hot weather in August. Picking is
expected to be complete in Washington in early September. Record high temperatures in mid-August
caused some soft fruit but color and size are good.

PAPAYAS: Fresh papaya production in Hawaii is forecast at 5.70 million pounds (2590 metric tons)

for September, up 36 percent from August and 14 percent more than a year ago. An
extended period of declining fresh output is expected to begin with October's forecast of 5.50
million pounds (2490 metric tons), down 4 percent from September. Production is then
anticipated to drop 5 percent in November and 12 percent in December from the respective
preceding month.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1987 A-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

CORN FOR GRAIN
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

ALL WHEAT

WINTER:

DURUM

OTHER SPRING
RICE
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS
FLAXSEED
PEANUTS FOR NUTS
ALL COTTON

UPLAND

AMER-PIMA
ORY EDIBLE BEANS
DRY EDIBLE PEAS
SUMMER POTATOES 2/
SWEETPOTATOES
TOBACCO
SUGARBEETS
SUGARCANE FOR
SUGAR AND SEED
PEPPERMINT OIL
SPEARMINT OIL
HOP:

PASTURE AND RANGE 3/
PEARS

GRAPES
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF)
PRUNES AND PLUMS

(EXCL CALIF)
CRANBERRIES
PECANS
FILBERTS
WALNUTS (CALIF)

Vv Yiewo IN POUNDS.
FVERAGE 1S 75 PERCENT.

RYE
ALL HAY
ALFALFA
ALL OTHER
POTATOES
WINTER
SPRING 2/
FALL 2/
TOTAL 2/
APPLES, COM‘L
PEACHES
SWEET CHERRIES
TART CHERRIES
APRICOTS
NECTARINES (CALIF)
PLUMS (CALIF)
OLIVES (CALIF)
ALMONDS (CALIF)

1,000 ACRES
Bu: 73,061 74,143
“ 12,722 13,633
" : 8,640 9,654
. 7,233 9,070
* 70,853 80,689
58,525
5,648
16,516
3,819.0
66,894
640
1,398.8 1,534.4
33,214.8 -13,794.4
13,143.1 13,7321
7 61
1,836.0 2,231.0
135.0 112.0
90.1 95.0
102.2 109.6
917.6 958.1
1,188.5 1,225.7
. 3 732.7 743.6
Bo: 81.3 68.0
. : 31.3 29.5 *
. : 371 43.1
PCT:
TON:
BBL
Le
TON

2/1980 REVISED.
A we 1, 1981.

BU 664
TON $9,437

" 1 26,269

. 2 33,168
CHT : 1.5
« : 71.6
« : 981.2
“ 3 1,154.4
LB :
TON:
LB :

‘ON 2

INDICATED.
1981 1/

1,000 ACRES

661
59,444
26,165
33,279

V/s ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981

A-3

91.0 107.1 6,647,534
46.2 63.4 587,997
53.0 52.8 457,593
49.6 52.5 358,544
33.4 34.1 2,369,666
36.8 35.2 1,891,251
22.4 33.2 108, 395
25.3 30.5 370,020

4,403 4,677 145,063
26.8 31.2 1,817,097
1.6 12.6 8,128

1,650 2,518 2,307,847

404 540 11,122.1
402 539 11,017.9
698 759 104.2

1,422 1,437 26,109

2,433, 25000 3,285,
189 210 16,999
107 14 10,953

1,943 2,061 1,782,618
19.8 20.9 23,499
36.8 37.5 26,963
57 58 4,611
68 65 2,139

2,037 1,867 75,560
8 82

893.8
5,595.1
168.0
76.6
2,697.5
185,500 |
70

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

INDICATED
1981 1/

7,734,941 7,940,421
833,476 "863,836
522,408 509,457
483,316 476,031

2,747,395 2,750,115

2,064,845 2,059,205
186,293 "187,353
496,257 503,557
177,408 178,605

2,017,468 2,089,418

iS 8,083

3,692,260 3,863,610

14,789.3” 15,507.3

14,694.4 — 15,410.4
94.9 96.
32,814 32,070
2,188 2,240
19,870 19,937
12,869 12,484
1,965,238 1,974,512

25,490 25,

27,997 27,867
3,900 3,954
1,925 1,909
80,710 80,470

852.3 856.3

4,488.4 4,135.4

4f155.0 155.0

69.0 68.5

5/2, 623.0
328,000

15.3

215.0 215.0

yy PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH.
57 RELEASED AUG 18, 1981.

THE 1 970-79

INDICATED
1981

1,000
24.5, 25.8 16,265 17,083
2.21 2.32 131,070 137,754
3.04 3.08 79,865 80,644
1.54 1.72 51,205 $7,110
205 214 2,363 2,530
238 265 17,067 20,752
272 266,428
262 302,857
8,828,400 8,078,500
3,073,600 2,915,600
W717 133.5
218,100 143,900
119.0 107.7
192.5 200.0
160.0 180. 5
1.0
322,000 4505 ooo”

1980 REVISED.

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


INDEX

PAGE

BARLEY .cscessccescccecesececees . seeedes B- 4
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE ... wees B-10
COFFEE ...cceceeee . 8-19
CORN FOR GRAIN . B- 1
COTTON 22.66. B- 9
CRANBERRIES .... wee B-17
CROP PROSPECTS MAP . A- 6
FLAXSEED ...eeeees - B- 8
GRAPES . . B-17
HOPS .. . B-15
MINT OI B-19
NUTS ... B-19
OATS .. wee tee wee sees . B- 3
PAPAYAS .cccsecsccccceccaecsece : : B-18
seeee : : B-16

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAPS .. . . . A- 7
PEANUTS FOR NUTS .....eecseeeees . . . B- 9
. B-16

B-10

8-18

B-11

PRUNES AND PLUMS . B-17
RICE wccceccesseee B- 7
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN . . B- 2
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS ........ senses B- 8
SUGARBEETS .....seceeeceseeee . 8-15
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED . B-15
SWEETPOTATOES .......4. senses . B-10
TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE . wee : B-13
TOBACCO BY STATES ...... wee : B-12
US SUMMARY ...... . . A- 3
WHEAT, BY CLASSES . B- 5
WHEAT, ALL ..... B- 5
WHEAT, DURUM ....... B- 7
WHEAT, OTHER SPRING . B- 7
WHEAT, WINTER ...ccccesecccccescccccuccceeeeees vesceeecseeeccueeeees B- 6

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 B-20 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FLAXSEED

AREA HARVESTED YIELO a PROOUCTION

STATE meee: oe ewe mee weer ener men enn eee en neem seman meena nena eneweeseeseenswseseneewe

2 : IND ¢ s IND ¢ 3 : IND

FY 1979 : 1980 3 1981 $ 1979 3 1960 3 1981 3 1979 ¢ 1980 5 1983

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

MINN 153 125 95 14.5 12.5 14,5 2,219 1,378
N DAK 460 “310 380 13.0 10.0 12.0 5,980 4,560
SOAK 2 260 265 165 14,5 13.0 13.0 3,770 2,145
TEX Ast 5 3 9.0 6,7 4s
us 3 878 103 640 13.7 11.6 12.6 12,014 8,083

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1960 CROP,

SOYBEANS FOR pEANS

PRODUCTION

1980 3 1981 3 1979 = 1960

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

2,150 2,100 2,050 25.0 15.0 22,0 53,750 31,500 45,100
5,150 4,350 4,350 28,0 16,0 26,0 144,200 69,600 113,100
27s 260 260 30,0 20,0 24,0 8,250 5,200 6,240
453 460 466 29.0 22.0 26,0 13,137 10,120 12,116
2,100 2,140 2,150 28.0 12.0 24,0 . 58,800 25,680 51,600
9,720 9,250 9,390 39,0 33.5 36,0 379,060 309,875 356,620
4,420 4,580 4,600 36,0 36.0 33.0 159,120 157,680 151,800
8,170 8,270 8,150 37.5 39,0 41,0 306,375 322,530 334,150
1,560 1,450 1,500 26.5 16.5 29,0 41,340 23,925 45,240
1-660 17600 14700 32.5 23.0 30,0 53,950 36,600 31,000
3,350 3,350 3,130 28.0 21,0 24,0 93,800 70,350 75,120
405 390 360 30,0 24,0 30,0 9,360 10,800
1,010 950 940 39,0 32,0 30.0 , 30,400 28,200
5,080 4,760 4,430 32.0 32,0 35.0 162,560 152,320 155,050
4,100 3,850 3,700 29.0 16,0 22,0 118,900 61,600 81,400
5,830 54330 5,100 31.5 25.0 32,0 183,645 138,250 163,200
1,610 1770 27100 34.0 30.0 36.0 94,740 53,100 75,600
203 194 168 30.0 18,0 24,0 6,090 | 3,492 4,032
es 19 26,0 24.0 650 456
12950 1,930 17350 23.5 18.5 24,0 45,825 35,705 44,400
206 200 220 27.0 17.5 28,0 5,562 3,500 6,160
4,080 3,760 3,500 35.5 56.0 29.0 144,840 135,560 101,500
360 300 260 10,0 21,0 3,000 5,460
98 103 100 32.0 24,5 31.0 22524 3-100
1,660 1,600 1,580 24,0 14,0 23.0 22,400 36,340
685 770 770 33.0 26,0 29,0 22,605 20,020 22,330
2,620 2,550 2,350 27.0 19,0 27,0 48,450 63,450
805 630 650 26.0 22.0 25.0 13,660 16,250
536 610 640 15.0 27.0 ' 9,150 17,280
295 330 370 34,0 33.0 34,0 10,030 10,890 12,580
70,506 67,856 66,694 S201 26,8 3162 262672901 148174097 260895418

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EAKLIER FORECAST.
2/ ESTIMATES OISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP,

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 B-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1971-81 (197

PRODUCTION

FEED: + FOOD : SUGAR : COTTON : TOBACCO :OIL CROPS
GRAINS GRAINS

1/ INCLUDES GRASS AND COVER CROP SEEDS, AND SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN
SEPARATE GROUPS OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with related information
on selected agricultural commodities. These data were prepared and adopted by the Crop Re-
porting Board which consists of commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington
headquarters.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:

WwW. E. Kibler, Chairman,
APPROVED: G. L. Clampet, Secretary,

D. W. Barrowman, R. L. Schulte,

J. M. Kitterman, C. R. Brantner,

R. L. Addison, M. A. Anderson,

W. R. Blackson, W. T. Brannen,

J. €. Brewster, J. S$. Buche,
RR ALR. Budge, T. J. Byram,

M.S. Clark, R. F, Dittman, dr.,

S. J. Hoge, C. D. James,

D. C. Johnson, S. R. Koyle,

R. W. Milton, G. A. Nelson,

D. E. Ransom, M. E. Stringer,

F. A. Vogel.

SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP ANO STATE

PEARS BARTLETT
CALIF
ORES
WASH
TOTAL

PEARS EXCLUDING BARTLETT
CALIF
OREG
WASH
TOTAL

ALL PEARS
CALIF
caLo ert
CONN art
MICH 3
NY z
ORES . 3
PA

UTAH

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PROOUCTIGN ANO EXCESS CULLAGE,

(TONS)S US 1979-500,

355,000

85,000
153,000
593,000

97800
120,000
93,000
222,800

364,800
4/600
1/500
97000

18,000

205,000
34100
2/700

246/000

854,700

387,000

80,000
143,000
610,000

10,700
120/000
113,000
243,700

397,700
4,000
17500

204000
17,500

200,000
3,500
3,000

256,000

893,600

360,000
90,000

585,000

11,000
120,000
100,000
234-000

371,000
7,000
1,650
9,000

15,000

210,000
3,800
3,800

235,000

856,250

2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARO FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

PASTUXE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/

AVERAGE
1970979
PERCENT
ALA 7 aL S68
ARIZ = Te 68
ARK 273 22
CALIF 71 a8
colo ot) 72 73
CONN $77 a7
EL = 78 50
FLA 2 84 82
GA 279 4a
IOAHO $ © 80 96
Tet #79 70
IND. : 85 87
IOWA of 77 79
KANS 3 71 S2
KY 89 71
LA 80 a7
MAINE 3 79 88
Mo 60 56
MASS 3 79 8a
MICH 376 90
MINN m1 74
MISS 80 65
Mo > 67 35
MONT 2 79 64
NEBR 3 m1 s7

1/ GOOD Tu EXCELLENT, AQ AND OVER % POOR TO FAIR 65=79F VERY POUR, SO~6a3

DROUGHT, 35"497 EXTREME ORQUGHT, UNDER 35.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981

8-16

AVERAGE 2 1960 1961
PERCENT
94 60
67 99
52 69
sa 93
9 a7
64 78
45 79
95 75
36 a7
92 85
69 73
72 83
a7 16
46 68
50 88
37 a4
82 ”
86 95
A) 9
84 a4
92 74
89 a4
70 86
61 82
SEVERE

1970*79

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP = AREA HARVESTEO s YEELO PRODUCTION
ANO Breen ewnenenn none. es
STATE 3 #1980 3 1981 2 1979

1,000 CwT
WINTER 1/
CALIF 240 235 280 792 705 896
FLA 185 195 190 1,594 1,658 1,638
TOTAL 2000-205 214 2,383 24363 2, 530
SPRING 1/ 2/
ALA 5.0 4.0 140 125 180 4,022 625 720
ARIZ 662 aaa 5.2 210 290 280 4,302 1,276 1,456
CALIF 26.0 22.5 26.4 © 395 390 390 11,060 8775 104296
FLASHASTINGS 16.5 18,0 21,0 230 195 240 0255 3,510 5,040
SOTHER <7 7) 1.0 180 170 210 162 136 210
La 2.0 1.7 1.5 15 70 8S 150 119 128
NC 13.7 13.0 13,3 165 140 155 2,261 3,620 2,062
TEX Tet 6.2 6.0 160 130 140 1,136 406 840
TOTAL 83.7 71.6 78,4 255 238 265 210348 17,067 20,752
SUMMER 2/
LA 9.0 9.5 9.4 170 50 150 1,530 ars. 1,365
CALIF 1.7 7.6 8.0 350 365 370 2,695 2,774 21960
coLo 6.9 5.8 6.8 275 275 280 1,898 1,595 1,904
veL Soa Sat S.2 220 190 220 1,188 969 1,194
TUL z 260 148 2.1 235 230 240 470 aia 504
INO z 1.8 1.5 1,6 160 160 170 288 240 272
Towa : Mel ta 1.4 210 230 215 ast 322 301
Mo : 1.7 1.8 1,9 165 170 180 261 306 342
MICH 2 8.6 AL 8.3 180 195 175 1,548 1,619 1,453
MINN : 6.3 5.4 bel 285 290 270 1,796 1,366 1,047
NEBR 2 1.5 1.3 Yet 180 200 200 270 260 220
Ng : 8.5 ase 8.1 250 240 255 2125 1,968 2,066
N MEX 2 4.4 3.0 4.5 275 180 210 4,210 540 945
nc + 3.9 347 4.0 © 120 110 120 468 407 480
OHIO 3 1.4 1.4 1.2 210 220 200 294 308 240
TENN 3.3 2.8 Bet 105 70 90 347 196 279
TEX 10.9 745 6.5 200 200230 27616 1,500 1,495
vA 19.2 14.0 16.0 135 110 145 2,592 1,540 2,320
TOTAL 103.6 9041 95.0 el 189 210 21,847 16,999 19,937
FALL 17 a7
CALIF 18.0 370 370 6,364 6,438
cove 39,0 290 300 11-455 10,950
CONN 2,0 220 225 462 405
TOAHO=10 Sk CO 24,0 335 340 10,050 7,820
sOTHER CO 301,0 © 250 260 75,000 72,020
IND 2.5 255 220 1,071 726
MAINE : 104,00 245 240 27,685 24,960
Mass : 3.3 220 220 748 748
MICH 31,0 250 235 8,000 7,403
MINN 69,0 190 155 12,920 94920
MONT 7,4 240 250 1,800 1,725
NEBR 7.48 260 280 1,ane 1,876
wey 11,0 330 340 4,950 4,420
N YeLONG 15 16.5 295 255 67431 4,794
UPSTATE 25,5 9 275 250 67463 6250
N DAK 115.0 160 140 "18,200 15,680
OHTO 9.3 240 210 2,400 1,995
OREGeMALHEUR CO 10.0 370 365 4,810 34650
"  eATHER Co 43.0 © 410 435 20,500 16,095
PA 21.0 250 190 67000 4,180
RI + 3.2 230 230 759 736
S DAK 6.1 0 185 160 1,203 1,072
UTAH 5.2 250 225 1,375 1,170
vt «7? 210 200 147 120
wash 108.0 475 505 46,450 43,935
WIS 54.0 Sé.u 315 320 17,010 16,000
Wyo 5.2 5.4 220 235 1,144 1,340
TOTAL L071 1,002,727 272 296,919 266,428
Use 4,270.3 1,154.4 1,227.9 270 262 342,497 302,857

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARKLEO FORWARD FRUM EARLIER FORECAST,
2/ 1980 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 , B-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Combining of flax in North Dakota began in August but was behind normal by month's end. As
of August 30, North Dakota reported 11 percent combined compared with 20 percent for both last
year and the average. An additional 13 percent was in swaths, 58 percent turning to ripe, and
18 percent still green. In South Dakota, about 70 percent of the acreage was harvested by the
end of August.

PEANUTS: As of September 1, peanut production is forecast at 3.86 billion pounds net weight

(1.75 million metric tons), 67 percent above the 2.31 billion pounds (1.05 million
metric tons) produced in 1980 and up 5 percent from the August 1 forecast. Favorable
precipitation was received in most peanut growing States during August, and production is
expected to fall only 3 percent short of the record high 1979 crop. Growers expect to harvest
Ti8S miltion acres” C621 ‘thousand Rectares) for, peanuts. this year, 10 percent above the 1.40
million acres (566 thousand hectares) harvested in 1980 and 1 percent above 1979.

The Virginia-North Carolina area is forecast to produce 728 million pounds, up 70 percent
from the drought reduced 1980 crop. The indicated yield of 2657 pounds is up 1055 pounds from a
year ago. Rainfall was generally adequate throughout August aM was heavy late in the month in
peanut growing areas.

The crop in the Southeast is expected to produce 2.40 billion pounds, up 68 percent from the
meager 1.42 billion pounds produced last year. Acreage for harvest at 848 thousand acres is 8
percent above the 788 thousand acres harvested last year. Yields in the Southeast are expected
to average 2827 pounds, 1019 pounds above 1980. Early harvest was getting underway by the end
of August in Alabama, Georgia and Florida.

Peanut growers in the Southwest are expected to harvest 62 percent more peanuts than last
year for a total of 739 million pounds this season. A return to more normal conditions has
increased acreage for harvest from 344 thousand acres last year to 413 thousand acres this
year--a 20 percent increase. Digging kas begun in south Texas and conditions are generally good
in Texas and Oklahoma, although conditions in south central Oklahoma are only fair and dryland
fields in Cross Timbers and Blacklands, Texas were showing signs of stress at the end of
August. Irrigated stands remain in excellent condition.

COTTON: Cotton production in the United States is forecast at 15.5 million bales, 39 percent

above last year and 5 percent more than the August 1 forecast. Upland production is
expected to total 15.4 million bales, up 40 percent from 1980 and American-Pima is forecast at
96.9 thousand bales, 7 percent below 1980. Cottonseed production, based on a three year average
lint-seed ratio, is forecast at 6.17 million tons ( 5.59 million metric tons), 38 percent above
1980 production. Favorable growing conditions prevailed during August throughout the producing
bett and yield prospects improved in most areas.

Acreage for harvest is estimated at 13.8 million acres (5.58 million hectares), 4 percent
more than last year. Average yield of lint per harvested acre is forecast at 540 pounds,
compared with 404 pounds for last year's drought shortened crop.

In the Southeastern States--Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina--product ion
js forecast at 629 thousand bales, 28 percent above Tast year and 4 percent more than the
August 1 forecast. August rains were too late to significantly benefit the Georgia crop.
Oefoliation is underway and harvest is beginning in Georgia.

Production in the Delta States--Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee--is
expected to total 3.41 million bales, up 41 percent from last year and up fractionally from the
August 1 forecast. Ory weather reduced prospects on some acreage in Louisiana and Mississippi
but on balance, expectations are unchanged from last month. The crop made good progress in
Missouri and Arkansas. Insect infestations have been light and control measures have been
effective. Bolls are opening one to two weeks earlier than normal in Mississippi and Louisiana
and harvest is underway.

The Upland crop in Oklahoma and Texas improved during August and is now forecast at 6.43
million bales, 82 percent above 1980 and up 11 percent from August 1. Harvest is nearly
complete in the Rio Grande Valley and is active in the Coastal Bend. Prospects are good to
excellent on the High Plains where the crop made good progress under favorable growing
conditions. 8011 worms increased in some fields and required more frequent control measures.

Upland production in the Western States--Arizona, California and New Mexico--is forecast at
4.93 million bales, 8 percent above last year and 1 percent above August 1. The crop is one to
two weeks earlier than normal. Nearly one half of the acreage in Arizona and about one-fourth
of the California acreage had open bolls by September 1. Yield prospects are excellent.

The Bureau of the Census reports 426,516 running bales ginned to September 1 compared with
582,217 bales ginned to the same date in 1980 and 538,494 bales ginned before September 1 in
1978.

ORY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry edible beans for 198] is forecast at a record 32.1 million

hundredweight (1.45 million metric tons). This is up 23 percent from last
year, but 2 percent less than the August 1 forecast. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 2.23
mitlion acres (903 thousand hectares), a gain of 22 percent over last year and the second
highest harvested acreage of record. The average yield expectation of 1437 pounds per acre is
down 2 percent from the August 1 forecast but is 1 percent above last year.

Harvest began about mid-August in California, Idaho and Washington. By month's end, harvest
had begun in other States although running somewhat Tater than normal.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Harvest is complete in California's Imperial Valley. Growers have begun fall harvest in the
Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. Yield prospects are good although powdery mildew and
armyworms have been a problem in some areas. .

In North Dakota and Minnesota, frequent showers early in the month provided favorable
growing conditions. Limited harvest could begin around mid-September. However, a strike at one

factory may delay harvest in that area.

The Idaho crop continued to make good progress. Harvest is expected to start the last week
of September.

The Michigan crop is developing nicely. Plentiful moisture is expected to produce additional
tonnage.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 27.9 million tons (25.3
million metric tons), down fractically from the August 1 forecast but up 3 percent
from 1980. Average yield per acre is estimated at 37.5 tons compared with 36.8 in 1980.

Florida's sugarcane made good growth during the month as shower activity increased. Harvest
for seed was underway in August and should increase in September. Cutting of cane for sugar is
expected to begin in October.

A tropical storm passed through the Hawaiian chain during the week ending August 9 and
brought welcome relief to many areas affected by earlier dry weather. Fields that had shown
moisture stress recovered gradually with periodic August rainfall keeping moisture levels
adequate. .

In Louisiana, dry weather moderated the outlook but growth was 10 to 12 inches above normal
in some localities. Neither borers nor smut have become a major threat. Planting progress was
19 percent complete on September 1.

In the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, the crop is developing well. Some smut has been noted but
damage has been minimal.

MINT OIL: The peppermint oil crop is forecast at 3.95 million pounds (1790 metric tons), 14 per-

cent Jess than last year. Production rose 1 percent from August 1 as yields
increased in Idaho, Washington and Wisconsin. Hot weather during August favored oi? production
and the average yield forecast increased 1 pound per acre over Jast month. Harvest is nearing
completion in most States.

The spearmint crop is forecast at 1.91 million pounds (870 metric ton), 1] percent below the
1980 crop. Production fell 1 percent from the August 1 forecast as yields declined in Idaho and
Washington. The U.S. indicated yield is 3 pounds per acre below last year. (The above
comparisons includes Oregon which is being estimated fér the first time this season.) Harvest
of the mint crop is nearing completion in Washington and well underway in the other States.

HOPS: Production of hops in the U.S. is forecast at 80.5 million pounds (36.5 thousand metric

tons), fractionally below the August 1 forecast but 6 percent above last year. Acreage
for harvest, estimated at 43.1 thousand acres (17.4 thousand hectares), is unchanged from last
month but the expected average yield decreased 6 pounds per acre from August 1.

AVL of the production decline from a month earlier occurred in California where forecast
yields were reduced. High temperatures along the coasts of Washington and Oregon caused

concern, but forecast yields were unchanged. Growing conditions for hops in Idaho have been
quite favorable.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: The September 1 pasture and range feed condition averaged 82 percent

for the 48 contiguous States. This is 21 points above a year ago and 7
points above the 1970-79 average for this date. During August, dry weather deteriorated grasses
in the West and the risk of fire remained high. Conditions improved in parts of Texas, but more
moisture is needed to sustain growth for fall grazing. The Corn Belt reported good to excellent
conditions, a result of abundant moisture. Pastures inthe eastern half of the Nation remained
in generally fair to good condition.

CROP PRODUCTION, SEPTEMBER 1981 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA