Potatoes:

Area Planted, by Seasonal Group,

State and United States, 1990-91

Seasonal Group

1990

State

: 1991

1,000 Acres

Winter 1/
cA
FL
Total
Spring 1/
AL
AZ
CA
FL-Hastings
-Other
NC
TX

Total

1990: 1991
1,000 Acres
5.5
8.0
13.5 13.
5.8 4
6.9 6
22.5 20
29.0 27
8.5 8
16.5 17
7.0 5
96.2 89
7.0
5.3
7.3
8.2
3.4
1.7
1.8
12.0 1
6.2
6.8
2.8
4.5
12.0 1
1.5 1
12.0 ll
11.0 11

103.5 103

NRENONNME RP eNO
FP CUMOHUAUHERONGDUNMOSD

aan

ny

CwWHAUNSCD

_

Fall 1/ 2/
CA

17.
co 65.
ID :
10 SW Co : 20.
Other Co : 385.
IN : 4
ME 81.
MA 2.
MI 34.
MN 69.
MT 9
NE 9
NV 7
NY r
Long Is : 6.
Upstate : 22.
ND : 150
OH 8
OR :
Malheur : 7.
Other Co : 46.
PA : 23
RI 1
sD 9
UT 6
WA 133
WI 67
WY 2
Total : (1,186.
US 1,399

COMM SCHODOMNOWOSD

WOCWOHOCaN

5

7

14,
71.

on

22.
373.
4.
81.
3.
35.
70,

n
ao
HOCOWMOMNTDDSD GOON ONMDOHOWOSD

-
>
f=)
c=)
Oo Ww

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ 1990 revised.

Crop Production
September 1991

A-20

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


The dark air-cured tobacco crop of 9.07 million pounds is up 19 percent from a
year earlier. Acreage is up 28 percent but the average yield is down
168 pounds per acre.

All cigar-type production is expected to total 31.9 million pounds, 2 percent
above last month's expectations, and 4 percent more than in 1990. Compared
with last year, filler is fractionally lower and binder is up 11 percent. The
Wisconsin binder outlook improved during August but the Connecticut and
Massachusetts binder suffered damage from Hurricane Bob. Cigar wrapper is
down 14 percent.

Sugarbeets: The September 1 sugarbeet production forecast of 27.6 million

tons is fractionally above both the August 1 forecast and last
year's output. Yields are expected to average 19.9 tons per acre, up 0.1 ton
from last month but down 0.1 from last year. Area harvested, at 1.39 million
acres, is up 1 percent from a year ago.

In the Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota, expected production
remained the same as a month ago but is up 11 percent from the year before in
Minnesota and up 15 percent in North Dakota. August was dry and root maggots
have been a problem this year.

In California, harvest in the Southern San Joaquin Valley area began in early
July. Yield losses due to beet yellow virus are expected in the Sacramento
Valley area.

Some areas in Michigan could use more rain, but the August rains helped crop
development. Harvest is expected to start in late September or early October.

Wyoming sugarbeet producers anticipate harvest to begin about
September 20, slightly behind last year.

Sugarcane: Sugarcane production is forecast at 31.6 million tons, nearly the

same as on August 1 but 12 percent above last year's output.
Nationally, acreage is up 13 percent from a year ago. The forecasted yield
per acre is unchanged from August 1 at 35.2 tons but off 0.2 ton from a year
earlier. Improved prospects from a month ago in Louisiana were offset by the
declining outlook in Hawaii.

Florida sugarcane growers are preparing to plant. The crop is making normal
progress.

In Hawaii, tropical depression Fefa brought gusty winds and heavy rains to
windward areas of Hawaii island during the first week of August. Sugarcane
harvesting operations were hampered by the resulting muddy conditions. Clear
weather followed the tropical depression with temperatures reaching into the
ow 90's.

In Louisiana, favorable growing conditions in August increased cane growth to
more typical levels. Cane is relatively healthy despite borer problems, which
are being controlled.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-12 NASS, USDA



Yields were generally down from last month in the Corn Belt, with the largest
declines in the western Corn Belt States as August temperatures were above
normal and rainfall was light. In the eastern Corn Belt, pod weights are
expected to be lighter than normal. In the southern Mississippi Delta States,
favorable August moisture increased yield potential. The southeast and
Atlantic Coast States were mostly unchanged from the August 1 forecast.

Minnesota's harvested acreage was reduced 100 thousand from last month based
on abandonment of drowned out fields.

Cotton: All cotton production is forecast at 17.9 million bales, up 1 percent
from the August 1 forecast and 15 percent above last year's
production. At this level, the crop remains the largest all cotton production
since 1937, when 18.9 million bales were produced. Of the total, Upland is
expected to account for 17.4 million bales, while Pima production will total

422,600 bales.

Growers expect to harvest 13.4 million acres, unchanged from the August
forecast and up 15 percent from 1990. Yield is expected to average 638 pounds
per harvested acre, 8 pounds above the August forecast and 4 pounds above last
year.

Upland cotton production in Texas and Oklahoma is forecast at 6.43 million
bales, virtually unchanged from last month but 20 percent greater than

1990. In Texas, cotton harvest was active as far north as Central Texas. Wet
conditions at the end of August interrupted harvest in the Blacklands. Plains
cotton remains late but moisture has been favorable. Some Rio Grande Valley
gins have completed ginning for the season. The Coastal Bend crop is
harvested and awaits ginning.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
expect to produce 5.59 million bales, up 4 percent from August and up

14 percent from 1990. Tennessee's June planted acreage responded favorably to
late August rains and on September 1, bolls were opening on 24 percent of the
acreage, only 3 percent behind the average. The Arkansas crop appears to be
about a week behind average development. Soil moisture supplies were short on
48 percent of the acreage and adequate on 50 percent as of September 1.

Insect presence in both Arkansas and Mississippi was average to low.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 3.30 million bales, virtually unchanged from August and down
9 percent from 1990. Yields in this region are expected to average

1,161 pounds per harvested acre, down 2 pounds from 1990. Arizona and
California producers continued irrigation and defoliation activities.
California's crop was treated for lygus, mites, whiteflies, and worms. On
September 1, Arizona's cotton acreage was rated 83 percent good and 17 percent
excellent, while California's was 90 percent good and 5 percent excellent.

The forecast in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and
South Carolina) puts production at 2.03 million bales, up 2 percent from the

August forecast and 71 percent above 1990. Regional yields, at 644 pounds per
harvested acre, are 117 pounds greater than the drought affected 1990 yields.

Alabama's cotton conditions vary throughout the State, reflecting the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-8 NASS, USDA



Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
between August 22 and September 3 to gather information on
expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat,
corn, soybeans, rice, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States
that usually account for at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly
selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted
within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop.
In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that
provide information to forecast the number of heads, ears, or bolls and their
weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop
a projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is
subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are re-visited each month until
crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm
operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain
current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 16,000 producers were
interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower
reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data
were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits
their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics
Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare
the published September 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised;

instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout
the growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records
and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover, stocks, production, exports,
processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the Tast estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the

September 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error,"
a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation
between the September 1 production forecast and the final estimate is
expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared
percentage deviations for the 1971-1990 20-year period is computed and the
square root of the average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error."
Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the
current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that
factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those
influencing recent years.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-17 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,

by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested :

Yield

Production

: - 1,000 Acres -
AL: 440 370

AR: 3,350 3,100
DE: ~~ = 199 250
FLA/: 75 40
GA: ~~ 700 620
IL : 9,100 9,100
IN: 4,180 4,430
IA: 7,900 8,700
KS: 1,950 1,950
KY : 1,220 1,130
tA: 1,750 ‘1,390
MD: 495 500
MI: «1,140 1,390
MN: 4,600 ~=—-5,350
MS =: 1,900 1,800
MO: 4,150 4,450
NE: 2,360 2,450
NO1/: 108 123
NC : 1,350 1,300
ND: 495 590
OK =: «3,480 3,880
OK1/: 210 230
PAI/: 275 305
sc: (750 640
sD: 1,920 2,250
TN : 1,250 1,050
TM =: 200 180
VA: 525 515
WE: 430 550
US : 56,502 58,633

S&S SeSooDoNTD00090NTDCOOCOOD OO OOD ODOOSO

Bushels --

24.
25.
29.
26.
27.
34.
35.
38.
19.
26.
23.
29.
35.
35.
22.
27.
29.
35.
26.
29.
32.
21.
33.
23.
25.
24,
28.
29.
37.

SOSCOSCOCTCOSCSDDODDODCCORCOCDOOCCOCCOOO

28,600
354,000
166,075
322,920

49,950

36,855

38, 500

16,500

38,880
185,000

40,000
121,800

81,920

3,616

41,850

13,860
125,370

6,840

10,370

20,160

48,880

29,760

12,450

17,280

15,170

1,923,666

7,480
90,450
6,766
1,425
9,800
354,900
171,380
323,900
46,800
39,040
42,000
17,820
43,320
179,400
39,900
124,500
81,420
3,996
32,400
12,870
135,720
4,410
11,275
13,875
53,760
33,750
5,000
16,800
17,630

1,921,787

8,880
77,500
7,250
1,040
16,740
309,400
155,050
330,600
37,050
29,380
31,970
14,500
48,650
187,250
39,600
120,150
71,050
4,305
33,800
17,110
124,160
4,830
10,065
14,720
56,250
25,200
5,040
14,935
20,350

1,816,825

1/ Estimates for current year carried

Crop Production
September 1991

forward from earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91 1/

Area Harvested Production

- 1,000 Acres --
cA: (167.

0 150.0 26.1 25.5 4,614 4,359 3,825
co : 40.0 40.3 23.6 23.0 912 944 927
1D : 186.0 195.0 26.0 24.0 4,038 4,836 4,680
MI >: 157.0 167.0 20.8 17.0 2,565 3,266 2,839
MN : 364.0 361.0 14.8 16.5 5,456 5,387 5,957
MT H 55.1 56.3 22.5 21.8 1,033 1,240 1,227
NE : 71.0 78.4 21.0 20.5 1,169 1,491 1,607
ND : 193.2 189.0 14.4 17.0 2,828 2,782 3,213
OH : 19.2 20.2 18.5 17.0 199 355 343
OR : 16.7 19.0 29.2 28.0 391 488 532
TX 3 41.0 40.5 24.8 24.0 743 1,017 972
WY 3 63.8 67.3 20.5 20.3 1,139 1,308 1,366
OTH 2/: 2.2 2.2 29.5 31.4 44 65 69
US : 1,376.2 1,386.2 20.0 19.9 25,131 27,538 27,557

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA. Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

1990 1989

- 1,000 Acres - ---- Tons ----
FL > 434.0 440.0 35.5 34.2 13,188 15,407 15,048
HI : 79.0 78.5 85.1 84.0 7,277 6,723 6,594
LA: 245.0 345.0 20.6 26.0 8,083 5,056 8,970
TMX > 36.2 35.0 26.2 29.5 878 950 1,033
US : 794.2 898.5 35.4 35.2 29,426 28,136 31,645
1/ Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1991 A-24 NASS, USDA


The Rio Grande Valley of Texas had good rains during late August. Harvest is
expected to begin in early October. Planting of new acreage is in full swing.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on
September I, for the 48 contiguous States,

was 72 percent of normal, up one point from September 1, 1990, and the same as

the 1980-89 average for the date. Conditions were below last year in

27 States and above last year in 21 States. Pennsylvania's condition was in

the extreme drought range. Indiana, Missouri, and New York were in the severe

drought range.

In the South, from North Carolina to Texas, pasture and range conditions were
in the good to excellent range.

Conditions were very poor in California, Nevada, Nebraska, Kansas, I]linois,
Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.24 million pounds
for August, 3 percent more than July but 47 percent Jess than August

1990. Year-to-date fresh sales trail the same 8-month period of 1990 by

26 percent. Weather conditions were variable in August. Heavy rainfall and

gusty winds, the result of a tropical depression passing near the islands,

occurred during the beginning of the month. No serious damage was reported.

The remainder of the month was a mix of light showers and sunny periods.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,675 acres, 8 percent higher than
July but 2 percent lower than last August. Area harvested, totaling

2,080 acres, was 9 percent higher than Jast month but 4 percent lower than a
year ago.

Grapes: The U.S. grape crop is forecast at 5.27 million tons, unchanged

from the August 1 forecast but 7 percent below last year's
production. Only California, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington
had the opportunity to change their August 1 forecast. The August 1 forecast
was carried forward for the remaining States.

California's production, at 4.72 million tons, is unchanged from last month
but 9 percent less than last year. The California raisin variety grape
forecast is 1.95 million tons, unchanged from the August 1 forecast but

17 percent below 1990. Crop maturity is behind normal for all grapes. An
early July heat wave adversely affected the crop by reducing crop volume.

The California wine variety grape forecast of 2.20 million tons is also
unchanged from August 1 and is virtually unchanged from the last two years.
Wine grape harvest is active in the Central Valley but is not expected to
begin in the Napa Valley until mid-September.

The California table grape forecast is 570,000 tons, unchanged from

August 1 but 12 percent below the 1990 crop. Table grape harvest continued
through August. The early July heat wave reduced the volume of this year's
production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-13 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Domestic Units)

Crop Yield per Acre Production
ANd teen nmennen norm e cnn n nnn n wenn nero renner cence enon sen
Unit 1990 Ind 1991 1990 Ind 1991 1/
a-e----- 1,000 ---------
Oats Bu: 60.1 52.2 357,149 259,666
Winter Wheat " : 40.7 34.7 2,033,299 1,371,946
Hay Ton : 2.39 2.48 146,985 156,855
at falfa "3 3.29 3.34 83,555 86,237
All Other "oo: 1.75 1.89 63,430 70,618
Potatoes :
Winter Cwt : 177 207 2,343 2,425
Spring "oy 254 233 24,163 20,360
Fall 2/ "oa 302 352,507
Hops Lb =: 1,603 1,615 56,854.8 63,948.0
Apples, comm'] " : 9,696,800 10, 056, 000
Peaches . : 2,205,200 2, 548, 000
Sweet Cherries Ton + 156.7 119.5
Tart Cherries lb : 208,800 160,600
Apricots Ton : 122.5 $5.1
Nectarines (Ca) "3 211.0 210.0
Plums (Ca) soy 222.0 210.0
Olives (Ca) "3 131.0 60.0
Almonds (Ca) Lb : 660,000 460,000

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1990 revised.

Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

c Yield per Hectare : Production
TOP Setw en nnn nro nnn nnn nna nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn amen nanan
1991 =: Ind 1991 1/ 1990 Ind 1991 1/
Metric Tons
Oats 2.16 1.87 5,184,000 3,769,040
Winter Wheat > 2.74 2.33 55,337,330 37,338,250
All Hay : 5,35 5.57 133,342,550 142,296,460
Alfalfa 2 7.37 7.48 75,799,820 78,232,890
All Other 3.93 4.25 57,542,730 64,063,570
Potatoes :
Winter > 19.90 23.26 106, 280 110,000
Sprin : 28.48 26.11 1,096,020 923,510
Fall 3) : 33.89 15, 989, 450
Hops > 1479 1.81 5,790 29,010
Apples, comm'T : 4, 36° °390 4,561,330
Peaches H 1,000,260 1,154,390
Sweet Cherries 3 142,160 108,410
Tart Cherries : 94,710 72,850
Apricots : 111,130 86,270
Nectarines (Ca) : 191,420 190,510
Plums (Ca) : 201,400 190,510
Olives (Ca) : 118,840 54,430
Almonds (Ca) : 299,370 208,650

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1990 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-5 NASS, USDA


By the first of September, 29 percent of the crop was mature, compared with
8 percent last year and a 23 percent average. Corn harvest continued in the
South and was getting underway in Illinois and Indiana.

Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 5.48 million bushels, down

3 percent from August 1 and down 4 percent from last year.
Area for grain, at 9.74 million acres, is unchanged from last month but up
7 percent from 1990. Average yield, at 56.2 bushels per acre, is down
1.7 bushels from August 1 and down 6.7 bushels from 1990. Lower yields in
Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska are primarily due to hot dry weather the last
two weeks of August.

The maturity of the sorghum crop is running slightly ahead of last year and
average as of September 1. Approximately 60 percent of the crop was changing
color as of September 1 compared to 47 percent last year and the average of
57 percent. At the beginning of September, one-third of the crop had reached
maturity. By the end of August, the Texas harvest was two-thirds complete,
well ahead of last year and normal. Harvest continues in other southern
States and has moved as far north as southeastern Missouri.

Barley: Total production is forecast at 468 million bushels, down slightly
from last month but 12 percent above the 1990 crop. The expected

yield per acre is forecast at 55.5 bushels compared with last month's

55.8 bushels and last season's average yield of 55.9 bushels per acre. Area

harvested and to be harvested, at 8.43 million acres, is 12 percent above last

year's 7.50 million acres.

The North Dakota crop made excellent progress all season, but the mid-July
dryness lowered expected yields. South Dakota growers reported yields that
were lower than previously expected. Harvest is behind normal in Washington,
but yields are better than expected.

All Wheat: Production is forecast at 2.01 billion bushels, down 1 percent

from last month and down 27 percent from 1990. Area for grain is
58.1 million acres, off 16 percent from last year. The average yield is
34.6 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushel from last month and down 4.9 bushels
from last season.

Durum Wheat: Production for 1991 is forecast at 114 million bushels,
virtually unchanged from August 1 but down 6 percent from

1990. Average yield, at 34.4 bushels per acre, is also unchanged from a month

earlier. A 2 bushel yield increase from Tast month in Montana was partially

offset by a 2 bushel yield decrease in South Dakota.

As of September 1, 90 percent of North Dakota's durum wheat was harvested.
Harvest was running about a week ahead of last year and average. South
Dakota's harvest was complete by mid-August.

Other Spring Wheat: Production is forecast at 526 million bushels, down
4 percent from August 1 and down 10 percent from

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-6 NASS, USDA



Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
1989-91

Production

1990 :Ind 1991 1990

--- Pounds -- 1,000 Pounds ---------
CT 1,652 1,620 2,793 3,007 2,835
FL 2,760 2,400 17,755 19,044 16,560
GA 2,415 2,100 87,200 103,845 86,100
IN 2,100 2,000 13,237 13,440 14,400
KY 2,278 2,099 366,551 442,253 468,735
MD : 7,100 7,400 1,360 1,370 8,103 9,656 10,138
MA : 470 480 1,713 1,652 746 805 793
MO1/: 2,600 3,000 2,280 2,150 5,450 5,928 6,450
NC : 284,200 278,900 2,251 2,212 541,056 639,639 617,015
OH : 9,700 10,500 1,950 2,050 15,925 18,915 21,525
PA: 10,000 10,500 1,978 1,914 17,925 19,780 20,095
Sc : $1,000 51,000 2,155 2,250 103,680 109,905 114,750
TN : 53,590 60,680 2,094 2,068 79,820 112,218 125,477
VA : 53,180 52,480 2,074 2,062 93,814 110,269 108,224
Woods: 1,700 1,900 1,600 1,600 1,885 2,720 3,040
WI : 6,900 7,400 1,989 2,055 11,248 13,723 15,210
US : 732,710 764,390 2,218 2,134 1,367,188 1,625,147 1,631,347

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-21 NASS, USDA



Prunes and Plums: Production by State and Crop 1989-91

Crop and State

Prunes (Dried basis)

CA : 226,000 147,000 180,000
Prunes and Plums :

ID : 6,500 6,800 3,800

MI : 13,000 6,000 9,000

OR : 14,000 21,000 6,000

WA 3 13,500 14,000 8,000
Total 47,000 47,800 26,800

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):
1989 - 3,150; 1990 - 4,600.

Nuts: Production by Crop and State, 1989-91

Production
Crop and State : Utilized
Proce csc toro n nce corn cnn nn ec cance Ind
1989 1990 1991
Tons (In-Shell Basis)
Hazelnuts 1/
OR : 12,800 21,500 25,700
WA : 200 200 300
Total : 13,000 21,700 26,000
Walnuts 1/ :
CA 229,000 227,000 250,000
: 1,000 Pounds
Pistachio Nuts 1/ : (In-Shell Basis)
CA :
Marketable In-Shell : 33,000 93,000 2/
Shelling Stock : 6,000 25,000 2/
Total : 39,000 118,000 48,000
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Production by type of sale will be published in the “Noncitrus Fruit and
Nuts Preliminary" to be released in January 1992.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1991 A-27 NASS, USDA


Tobacco:
by Class, Type,

Class and Type

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
State, and United States, 1990-91 (continued)

--- Pounds ---
2,250 2,100 4,500
2,040 2,000 1,020
2,208 2,081 5,520
2,250 1,950 2,025
1,275 1,300 102
2,197 2,029 7,647
2,050 1,950 13,120

1,700 969
1,880 191
1,726 1,160
2,250 9,635
1,800 4,088

2,055 13,723
2,024 14,883

1,570 2,038
1,585 614
1,574 2,652

1,954 30,655
2,134 1,625,147

-- 1,000 Pounds --

5,250
1,180
6,430

2,535

104
9,069

13,065

1,139
207
1,346

9,450
5,760

15,210
16,556

1,696
586
2,282
31,903

1,631,347

: --- Acres ----
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3b, Dark

Air-cured
Type 35, One Sucker

Belt

KY 2,000 2,500

TN 500 590

US : 2,500 3,090
Type 36, Green River :

Belt :

KY : 900 1,300
Type 37, VA Sun-cured:

Belt :

VA 80 80
Total 35-37 : 3,480 4,470
Class 4, Cigar Filler :

Type 41, PA Seedleaf :

PA : 6,400 6,700
Class 5, Cigar Binder :

Class 5a, CT Valley

Binder
Type 51, CT Valley

Broadleaf

CT 570 670

MA 90 110

US 660 780
Class 5b, WI Binder :

Type 54, Southern WI :

WI : 4,100 4,200
Type 55, Northern WI :

WI : 2,800 3,200
Total 54-55 6,900 7,400
Total 51-55 : 7,560 8,180
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:

Type 61, CT Valley

Shade-grown

CT 1,250 1,080

MA 380 370

US 1,630 1,450
All Cigar Types :

Total 41-61 : 15,590 16,330
Al] Tobacco 3732,710 764,390
Crop Production
September 1991 A-23

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


1990. Yields are expected to average 34.5 bushels per acre, 1.3 bushels below
last month and 2.2 bushels below last year. Area for harvest, at 15.3 million
acres, is down 4 percent from 1990.

Minnesota's crop suffered from disease and too much rain in the west central
counties but not enough in northwest counties. Record high yields are
expected in Montana as the condition of the crop remains good to excellent.
Dakota producers completed harvest by the end of the month and yields were
lower than previous expectations.

Rice: U. S. rice production is forecast at 157 million cwt, 2 percent

above both 1990 and 1989. Average yield for the nation is forecast at
5,563 pounds per acre, up fractionally from the August 1 forecast and
1 percent above the 1990 average. The Louisiana yield forecast is up
100 pounds from August in expectation of ratooning a higher than normal
proportion of the acreage in the southern part of the State. Yield forecasts
for the other States remain unchanged from August.

Crop development was notably later than normal in California due to cool
weather and in Mississippi due to late seeding. By September 1, 89 percent of
the rice crop was headed and harvest was underway in the Delta and Guif
regions. Harvest was well along in Louisiana and Texas, while still in the
early stages in Arkansas and Mississippi. Some early seeded fields had been
drained in California with harvest expected to begin shortly after mid-month.

Soybeans: Production is forecast at 1.82 billion bushels as of

September 1, 3 percent below the August 1 forecast and 5 percent
below 1990. Yield is estimated at 31.0 bushels per acre, 0.8 bushel below
August 1 and 3.0 bushels below 1990. Harvested acres are estimated at
58.6 million acres, 100 thousand acres below the August 1 level.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
1982 - 1991

BILLION BUSHELS

2.19

82 83 84 85 86 87 2-3 89 90 91

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 8-7 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1989-91

Seasonal : Area Harvested Yield Production
Group anced
and : : :
State 1990 : 1991 : 1989 ; 1990
: - 1,000 Acres - --- Cwt --- -------~ 1,000 Cwt
Winter 1/ :
CA 2 5.5 4.1 230 230 1,320 1,265 943
FL : 77 7.6 140 195 1,444 1,078 1,482
Total : 13.2 11.7 177 207 2,764 2,343 2,425
Spring 1/
AL : 5.7 3.5 150 140 1,296 855 490
AZ > «6.9 6.0 260 290 1,827 1,794 1,740
CA : 22.5 20.7 375 375 7,875 8,438 7,763
FL H
Hastings : 28.7 27.0 240 190 5,460 6,888 5,130
Other 2 8.3 8.4 220 175 1,400 1,826 1,470
LA : 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 27 2/ 2/
NC : 16.2 17.0 200 175 2,184 3,240 2,975
TX > 6.8 4.8 165 165 783 1,122 792
Total : 95.1 87.4 254 233 20,852 24,163 20,360
Summer 3/
AL 6.8 6.8 160 140 1,275 1,088 952
CA 5.3 5.0 330 325 2,196 1,749 1,625
co 7.2 7.4 295 320 2,144 2,124 2,368
DE 8.2 7.7 245 160 1,152 2,009 1,232
IL 3.1 4.4 270 250 858 837 1,100
IA 1.0 1.3 160 170 263 160 221
MD 1.8 1.7 180 140 315 324 238
MI 11.5 11.5 250 250 2,300 2,875 2,875
MN 6.1 7.3 300 295 1,890 1,830 2,154
MO 4/ 5.8 6.2 165 210 957 1,302
NE 2.7 2.4 245 270 598 662 648
NJ 2 4.4 4.0 230 190 888 1,012 760
NM : 10.0 10.0 340 350 4,025 3,400 3,500
NC : 1.4 1.4 100 110 126 140 154
TN 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 60 2/ 2/
TX : 10.0 10.0 195 240 2,625 1,950 2,400
VA : 11.0 11.0 180 145 1,440 1,980 1,595
Total : 96.3 98.1 240 236 22,155 23,097 23,124
Footnotes on page A-19. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1991 A-18 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

0:0

mi)

7)

‘0

7)

‘
33 60.0 48. 23320 25580 1,584
875 63.0 50.0 443000 50,400 43,750
1,700 41.0 52.0 68,800 56,580 88; 400
27 40.0 45. 650 880 1,215
6 75.0 70. 990 675 420
8 62.0 63. 472 372 504
{ 2/ 2 375 2/ 2/
35 53.0 47.0 2,064 1,590 1,645
2,800 53.0 49.0 98;050 129,850 137; 200
10 41.0 33.0 800 697 330
175 70.0 72.0 12,060 9,100 12,600
70 69.0 67.0 5,015 47140 4,690
9 52.0 40.0 560 676 360
460 49.0 46.0 19,250 24,500 21,160
16 38.0 40.0 480 608 640
95 81.0 85.0 9,006 8,505 8,075
85 66.0 67.0 4,875 5,280 5,695
570 58.0 63.0 28,420 22°620 35,910
65 54.0 54.0 3,705 23700 35510
133 74.0 78:0 7,000 97250 10;374
8,429 55.9 55.5 404,203 418,856 467,871

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Estimates discontinued.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-10 NASS, USDA


Development of the corn crop was ahead of normal entering the month, with
about one-third of the acreage in the dough stage. Crop maturity was much
ahead of normal in the Ohio Valley, and harvest was underway in the South.
Crops were being stressed by drought conditions in the eastern Corn Belt.
Limited rainfall during the month provided little relief to parched fields in
the eastern Corn Belt, while periodic rains interrupted harvest in Texas and
the Gulf. By the end of the month, 76 percent (%) of the corn was dented in
the 17 major producing States, 37 percentage points ahead of last year and

10 points ahead of the 5-year average. Twenty-nine percent of the crop was
mature, compared with 8% last year and 23% average. Crop condition remained
mostly fair to good for the 17 major States, with good conditions in the Great
Lakes, Southeast, Colorado, and Minnesota. However, poor or very poor
conditions continued for much of the corn in the Ohio Valley, I]llinois,
Kansas, Missouri, and Pennsylvania.

Entering August, the soybean crop was developing much earlier than normal in
the Ohio Valley and South Dakota, with pods setting on over half of the
acreage. Nationwide, crop development was only slightly ahead of normal as a
result of late seeding in Alabama, Tennessee, and the Delta. Crop condition
rated mostly fair to good, with the highest ratings in the northernmost
States. Lack of rainfall during the month stressed the crop in Kansas,
Nebraska, and Missouri, while showers during the second half of the month
benefited the later seeded beans in the Ohio Valley. Pod setting was nearly
complete by the end of the month. Plants were dropping their leaves on over
40% of the acreage in Ohio and South Dakota and over 20% in Illinois, Indiana,
and Kansas--all much earlier than normal. Leaves were dropping on 15% of the
acreage in the 19 major producing States, 12 percentage points ahead of last
year and 6 points ahead of the average.

Cotton progress was slightly behind schedule entering August with a
significant lag in Tennessee due to rain delays at planting time. Squaring
was approaching completion in the 14 major producing States, and bolls were
setting on over 60% of the acreage. Picking was underway in southern Texas.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures during August kept the California crop behind
schedule, while high temperatures promoted development of Tennessee's late-
seeded crop. Crop condition rated mostly good in the Southwest and Southeast
during the first half of the month, and mostly fair in the Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys. Timely rains at the end of the month raised condition
ratings to mostly good in the Delta, while good conditions were sustained in
the Southwest and Southeast. By the end of the month, bolls were opening on
26% of the acreage in the 14 major producing States, 7 points behind last year
and 5 points behind the average. Growers in the Southwest and Gulf Coast were
defoliating fields in preparation for picking, and harvest was advancing into
central Texas.

Heading of the Nation's rice crop by August 1 was roughly 40% complete, ahead
of last year but slightly behind the historic average. Harvest was underway
in Texas and Louisiana with less than 20% of each State's crop harvested.

Cool temperatures during the month kept the California crop behind schedule
and the late-seeded Mississippi crop remained behind schedule. Heading of the
rice crop advanced to 89% complete by the end of the month, ] point behind
last year and 6 points behind average. Harvest progress reached 30% complete,
6 points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of the average, with harvest
active in all States except California. Some early-seeded fields had been
drained in preparation for harvest in California.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-4 NASS, USDA



CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

September 7, 1891 \
rag RABLY

MOAN/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY  sesed oo protiniory por

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot
profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging
below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long
term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought
severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 199] B-1 NASS, USDA



Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

1991: 1990 : ANGI SEP 1

Metric Tons

Soybeans for Beans .29 2.08 52,302,470 50,861,080 49,445,870
Peanuts for Nuts +23 2.87 1,634,180 2,312,490 2,278,470

All Cotton : 7 112 3,374,580 3,842,470 3,890,370

Corn for Grain 7.44 6.66 201,509,210 188,413,970 185,303,340
Sorghum for Grain 3.95 3.53 14,516,340 14,339,340 13,911,330
Barley 3.01 2.99 9,119,510 10,232,190 10, 186,690
All Wheat 2.66 2.33 74,532,310 55,328,650 54,771,980
Durum 2.35 2.32 3,324,950 3,107,120 3,112,180
Other Spring 2.47 2.32 15,870,030 14,883,280 14,321,550
Rice 6.17 6.23 7,027,010 7,119,770 7,143,130

2

2

Upland : 71 71 3,296,530 3,750,020 3,798,360

Amer-Pima : 85 97 78,050 92,450 92,010
Cottonseed : 5,412,720 6,186,000 6,262,020
Dry Edible Beans : 1.74 1.91 1,470,950 1,408,000 1,447,550
Potatoes :

Summer : 26.88 26.42 1,047,660 1,048,660 1,048,890

Total 1/ : 32.88 18,239,410
Tobacco : 2.49 2.39 737,150 745,560 739,970
Sugarbeets : 44.86 44.56 24,982,050 24,923,990 24,999,290
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed : 79.42 78.95 25,524,550 28,715,120 28,707,860
Pears : 874,340 798,870 800,230
Grapes : 5,134,570 4,777,510 4,777,960
Dried Prunes (Ca) : 133,360 2/163,290 163,290
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl Ca) : 43,360 29,760 24,310
Hazelnuts : 19,690 3/23,590 23,590
Pecans + 92,990 132,450
Pistachio Nuts (Ca) : 53,520 21,770
Walnuts (Ca) : 205,930 217,720 226,800

Af 1990 revised.
2/ July 1, 1991.
3/ Mid-August 1991.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

Crop : : : : Indicated
: 1990 : 1991 : 1990 : 1991
Hectares
Corn : 30,016,260 30,719,610 27,094,800 27,818,390
Sorghum : 4,263,410 4,470,210 3,674,180 3,942,890
Barle : 3,318,860 3,612,260 3,034,770 3,411,130
All Wheat : 31,276,870 28,340,840 28,066,460 23,527,460
Durum > 1,442,720 1,367,040 1,417,220 1,343,980
Other Spring : 6,767,630 6,314,780 6,424,450 6,178,400
Rice : 1,168,340 1,161,460 1,138,390 1,145,680
Soybeans : 23,389,060 24,190,340 22,865,790 23,728,190
Peanuts : 744,630 805,330 732,290 794,610
All Cotton : 4,997,150 5,702,570 4,747,670 5,438,630
Upland : 4,903,550 5,606,980 4,655,760 5,344,050
Amer-Pima Hy 93,600 95,590 91,910 94,580
Dry Edible Beans : 881,660 782,270 844,350 756,850
Potatoes :
Summer : 41,890 41,840 38,970 39,700
Total 2/ : 566,440 566,570 554,670 556,450
Tobacco : 296,520 309,340
Sugarbeets 7 566,320 568,870 556,930 560,980
Sugarcane for H
ugar and Seed : 321,400 363,610

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, i.e., grain, beans, nuts, etc
1990 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

Hectares

Oats : 4,218,080 3,499,760 2,403,860 2,012,120
Winter Wheat : 23,066,520 20,659,020 20,224,790 16,005,080
Rye : 657,620 682,310 150,950 175,640
Flaxseed : 105,220 123,430 102,390 118,170
Sunflower H 770,930 1,050,170 749,080 1,025,080
All Ha: : 24,911,500 25,549,700

Alfalfa H 10,279,530 10,459,210

All Other : 14,631,970 15,090,490
Potatoes :

Winter : 5,460 5,340 5,340 4,730

spring : 38,930 36,060 38,490 35,370

Fall 2/ : 480,160 483,320 471,870 476,640
Sweetpotatoes : 38,000 32,620 36,220 31,480
Hops : 14,370 16,030

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1990 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-6 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group,
State, and United States, 1989-91 (continued)

Seasonal Yield

Group : woo mone
and : : : : :

State 1990: 1991: 1989 : 1990 : 1991

: - 1,000 Acres - w-- Cwt --- 0 ------- 1,000 Cwt -------

Fall 1/ 3/
CA : 17.0 14.5 390 6,440 6,630
co : 65.0 70.0 350 20,603 22,750
cT 3 2/ 2/ 2/ 63 2/
1D :
10 SWCo : 20.0 22.0 400 6,715 8,000
Other Co : 383.0 371.0 290 95,760 111,070
IN : 3.9 4.1 220 960 858
ME : 76.0 80.0 270 22,000 20,520
MA : 2.6 3.1 250 600 650
MI : 33.0 34.0 280 7,350 9,240
MN : 68.0 69.0 210 13,860 14,280
MT : 8.9 9.4 280 2,228 2,492
NE : 9.3 8.6 305 2,528 2,837
NV : 7.0 7.0 335 2,600 2,345
NY 3
Long Is : 6.5 6.6 300 1,898 1,950
Upstate : 22.0 22.5 270 4,730 5,940
ND : 145.0 150.0 115 15,070 16,675
of : 7.8 7.8 245 1,462 1,911
Malheur : 7.0 6.8 360 2,028 2,520
Other Co : 46.0 45.2 455 21,280 20,930
PA : 22.5 20.0 240 4,715 5,400
RI : 1.1 1.5 245 300 270
SO : 9.0 6.5 220 1,980 1,980
UT : 6.2 5.7 265 1,495 1,643
WA : 132.0 144.0 515 64,310 67,980
WI : 65.0 66.5 355 23,120 23,075
WY : 2.2 2.0 255 578 561

Total 1,166.0 1,177.8 302 324,673 352,507

US 1,370.6 1,375.0 293 370,444 402,110

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Estimates for 1991 yield and production for fall potatoes will be
published November 12, 1991.

2/ Estimates discontinued.

3/ 1990 revised.

4/ Estimates began in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-19 NASS, USDA



Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested : Yield : Production
1990 :Ind 1991: 1989 1990 =: Ind 1991

~- 1,000 Acres -- -- Bushels -- 9 ------- 1,000 Bushels -------
22 23 45.0 50.0 1,500 990 1,150
240 2/ 2

2, 2/
18, 1530 16,740

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Estimates discontinued.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-9 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed:
1990-91 and Average 1/

Condition by State and United States,

State : Average :

1990

1991 :: State

: Average :
: 1980-89 :

1990

: 1980-89 :
AL : 72
AZ : 81
AR : 66
CA : 79
co : 79
CT : 80
DE : 66
FL 84
GA 67
ID 78
IL 70
IN 75
TA 70
KS 74
KY 75
LA 78
ME 84
MD 65
MA 84
MI 77
MN 72
MS 74
MO 67
MT 69
NE 74

Percent

45
70
53
43
77
94
90
76
51
67
84
91
92
83
83
56
86
90
89
91
75
55
77
77
76

77
87

82
77
72
63
75
70
80
71
85
67
67
73
59
80
84
75
78
72
16
76

Percent

63
90
97
74
83
74
47
97
72
69
90
96
57
71
59
57
53
88
85
82
85
88
88

64
77

98
42
91
65
60
67
79
34
70
88
80
81
82
85
72
74
80
60
66
100

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Crop Production
September 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop So ee
Production

Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released September 12, 1991, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts
refer to September 1, 1991.

Corn and Soybean Production Down
Cotton Production Up

Corn for grain production is forecast at 7.30 billion bushels, down 2 percent
from last month and 8 percent below the 1990 crop. The U.S. average yield per
acre is forecast at 106.1 bushels, down 1.7 bushels from last month and 12.4
bushels below the 1990 average yield. By the first of September, 29 percent
of the crop was mature, compared with 8 percent last year and a 23 percent
average. Corn harvest continued in the South and was getting underway in
Illinois and Indiana.

Soybean production is forecast at 1.82 billion bushels as of September 1,

3 percent below the August 1 forecast and 5 percent below 1990. Yield is
estimated at 31.0 bushels per acre, 0.8 bushel below August 1 and 3.0 bushels
below 1990. Yields were generally down in the Corn Belt, with the largest
declines in the western Corn Belt States as August temperatures were above
normal and rainfall was light.

Sorghum for grain production is forecast at 548 million bushels, down

3 percent from August 1 and down 4 percent from last year. Average yield, at
56.2 bushels per acre, is down 1.7 bushels from August 1 and down 6.7 bushels
from 1990. The maturity of the sorghum crop was running slightly ahead of
last year and average as of September 1. Harvest continues in Texas and other
southern States and has moved as far north as southeastern Missouri.

Peanut production is forecast at a record high 5.02 billion pounds, down
1 percent from the August forecast but up 39 percent from last year. The
previous record was 4.41 billion pounds set in 1984. Excessively wet
conditions and disease in North Carolina and Georgia combined to lower
expectations.

All Cotton production for 1991 is forecast at 17.9 million bales, 1 percent
above the August forecast and up 15 percent from 1990. This remains the
largest production since 1937. A combination of increased acreage and higher
yields contributed to the large crop.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
information call (202) 447-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (9-91)


Index

Page

Table Narrative

Barley... .. cece cece cece cece cece ete n teen entre teen eetteee A-10 B- 6
Beans, Dry Edible see A-16 B- 9
Coffee......... see A-29

Corn for Grain es A- 8 B- 5
Cotton..... A-15 B- 8
Cottonseed......... A-16 B- 9
Crop Moisture Maps. B- 1
Grapes...........6. A-26 B-13
Nuts........ A-27 B-15
Papayas-Hawaii.............005 A-26 B-13
Pasture & Range Feed Condition. A-25 B-13
Peanuts for Nuts. A-17 B- 9
Pears.. A-29 B-16
Pecans... aes A-28 B-15
Potatoes......... ee A-18 B-10
Prunes and Plums........ see A-27 B-14
Reliability of Forecasts see B-18 B-17
Rice... cece eee eee wee A-13 B- 7
Sorghum for Grain.. A- 9 B- 6
Soybeans for Beans. A-14 B- 7
Sugarbeets............0..eee A-24 B-12
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed A-24 B-12
Tobacco, by Class and Type.. A-22 B-10
Tobacco by States......... A-21

U.S. Summary..... A- 3

Wheat, All....... A-11 B- 6
Wheat, by Classes A-13

Wheat, Durum....... cae A-12 B- 6
Wheat, Other Spring............e sec cee cece ener eee eee teee A-12 B- 6
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1991 B-19 NASS, USDA



Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
State and United States, 1989-91

1990 :Ind 1991: 1989 : 1990 : Ind 1991

: - 1,000 Acres -- -- Bushels --- 9 ---~---- 1,000 Bushels -------

AZ 1/ : 44 44 94.0 95.0 7,560 4,136 4,180
CA l/ : 54 32 99.0 100.0 8,715 5,346 3,200
MN : 30 30 44.0 35.0 1,044 1,320 1,050
MT : 235 179 19.0 33.0 6,030 4,465 5,907
ND : 3,050 2,950 34.0 33.0 66,000 103,700 97,350
SD : 89 86 36.0 31.0 2,880 3,204 2,666
US : 3,502 3,321 34.9 34.4 92,229 122,171 114,353

l/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forcast.

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States 1

1990 :Ind 1991: 1990 :Ind 1991

: - 1,000 Acres - Bushels --
co l/: 40 36 70.0 75.0 4,900 2,800 2,700
1D : 450 460 68.0 71.0 34,720 30,600 32,660
MN : 2,750 2,085 49.0 32.0 96,900 134,750 66,720
MT : 2,450 2,500 22.0 35.0 85,000 53,900 87,500
NV 1/: 8 4 70.0 70.0 720 560 280
ND : 7,700 6,900 36.0 32.0 174,000 277,200 220,800
OR 1/: 58 46 52.0 50.0 4,935 3,016 2,300
SD : 2,100 1,750 32.0 29.0 45,100 67,200 50,750
UT 1/: 26 23 45.0 49.0 990 1,170 1,127
WA : 280 1,450 41.0 42.0 41,710 11,480 60,900
WII/: 7 7 40.0 34.0 310 280 238
Weoa/: 6 6 28.0 42.0 462 168 252
us 15,875 15,267 36.7 34.5 489,747 583,124 526,227

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-12 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Ind 1991: 1990 :Ind 1991

+ - 1,000 Acres - -- Bushels --
AL 1/ : 190 120 35.0 30.0 6,600 6,650 3,600
AZ 1/: 98 73 94.6 95.4 10,722 9,266 6,964
AR 1/ : 1,400 930 35.0 22.0 52,800 49,000 20,460
CA l/s: 614 422 78.0 81.5 52,605 47,906 34,400
CO 1/ : 2,590 2,336 33.6 31.7 62,100 86,950 74,000
DE 1/ : 60 67 51.0 48.0 3,108 3,060 3,216
FLI/: 55 25 33.0 20.0 1,885 1,815 500
GA l/: 590 450 35.0 33.0 22,400 20,650 14,850
ID : 1,370 1,160 72.7 70.4 91,420 99,600 81,660
IL 1/ : 1,900 1,400 48.0 31.0 105,020 91,200 43,400
IN )/: 970 750 52.0 40.0 51,920 50,440 30,000
IA 1/ : 75 50 45.0 34.0 3,290 3,375 1,700
KS 1/ : 11,800 10,800 40.0 33.0 213,600 472,000 356,400
KY U/ : 500 430 40.0 27.0 22,500 20,000 11,610
tAl/: 390 220 = 33.0 20.0 10,850 12,870 4,400
MD 1/ : 190 195 52.0 53.0 8,600 9,880 10,335
MI 1/ : 750 560 $5.0 45.0 33,920 41,250 25,200
MN : 2,865 2,165 48.4 32.2 102,504 138,620 69,620
MS 1/ : 520 250 30.0 18.0 15,300 15,600 4,500
MO 1/ : 2,000 1,550 38.0 34.0 86,950 76,000 52,700
MT : 5,185 4,579 28.1 36.2 145,030 145,865 165,607
NE l/ : 2,250 2,100 38.0 32.0 55,350 85,500 67,200
NWd/: 14 9 70.0 67.2 1,200 980 605
NO d/ : 29 27 43.0 44.0 1,365 1,247 1,188
NM 1/ : 325 320 25.0 22.0 4,000 8,125 7,040
NY 1/ : 145 110 49.0 48.0 5,850 7,105 5,280
NC 1/ : 550 500 41.0 40.0 21,420 22,550 20,000
ND : 10,910 9,930 35.3 32.3 242,320 385,220 320,710
OH 1/ : 1,350 1,100 59.0 49.0 62,730 79,650 53,900
OK 1/ : 6,300 5,000 32.0 27.0 153,900 201,600 135,000
OR 1/ : 968 846 59.5 51.9 53,835 57,616 43,900
PA I/ : 210 175 50.0 46.0 7,955 10,500 8,050
SC l/: 380 280 38.0 33.0 17,835 14,440 9,240
SD > 3,789 3,136 33.8 31.5 83,080 128,004 98,916
TN 1/ : 490 330 36.0 24.0 18,900 17,640 7,920
TX 1/ : 4,200 2,800 31.0 30.0 60,000 130,200 84,000
UT as: 176 158 40.7 43.9 5,950 7,170 6,932
VA 1/: 260 245 47.0 49.0 12,650 12,220 12,005
WA : 2,480 2,200 60.5 46.4 110,610 150,080 102,150
Wod/ : 12 11 46.0 43.0 516 552 473
WI1/: 192 127 52.5 52.0 9,320 10,085 6,598
WY 1/ : 211 201 29.0 31.3 4,708 6,113 6,297
US : 69,353 58,137 39.5 34.6 2,036,618 2,738,594 2,012,526

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-11 NASS, USDA


Hazelnuts: The 1991 hazelnut production in Oregon and Washington is

forecast at 26,000 tons. If realized, this production level would
be 20 percent more than last year and represent a record high production. The
previous record was set in 1985 when 24,600 tons of hazelnuts were harvested
in the two States.

Spring 1991 was cooler and wetter than normal causing many crops in western
Oregon, including hazelnuts, to develop later than usual. By late July, nut
maturity was a week to ten days behind normal. However, a hot August was good
for nut sizing and development.

Walnuts: The 1991 walnut production in California is forecast at a record

high 250,000 tons (in-shell basis). This level is 10 percent above
last year and 1 percent above the previous record high of 247,000 tons set in
1987.

The quality of this year's walnut crop was adversely affected by sunburn and
blight. Nut set is 15 percent higher than last year and about the same as the
1987 set. Smaller than usual sizes are expected. Maturity is approximately
five to ten days behind normal due to a relatively coo] spring and summer.

Pistachios: The 1991 California pistachio production is forecast at

48.0 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 59 percent from last
year's record high production. The large decrease is primarily due to the
alternate bearing cycle of the pistachio crop, Drought conditions and the
December freeze had little affect on the current crop.

The decrease in production is attributed to a significantly lower number of
total clusters per tree. Large nut sizes are expected with good quality and
less nut blanking. Harvest is seven to ten days behind normal and should be
active by late September.

Pecans: The September I forecast for the U.S. pecan crop is 292 million
pounds (in-shell basis), 42 percent above last year's production and
17 percent above the 1989 crop.

The Georgia pecan forecast is 115 million pounds, 77 percent above 1990. A
heavy nut set was reduced by above normal disease problems, including scab.
Growers are concerned with the sizing and the filling of the nuts. The Texas
crop is expected to total 65.0 million pounds, up 8 percent from the

1990 production. Above average rainfall throughout the State increased crop
volume. Scab is a problem this year for many Texas growers.

The Alabama crop is forecast at 15.0 million pounds, up 200 percent from last
year's small crop but down 32 percent from 1989. Rainfall early in the
growing season promoted a heavy nut set but also promoted disease problems.
Many areas now need additional rainfall to facilitate the filling of nuts.
Arkansas expects to produce 1.20 million pounds, nearly four times greater
than last year's crop and up 20 percent from 1989. The overall crop condition
is good with some scab reported. California production is forecast at

2.80 million pounds, unchanged from last year. Nut quality looks good but
smaller sizes are expected. Maturity is 1 to 2 weeks behind normal. The

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-15 NASS, USDA



August Weather Summary: August 1991 got mixed reviews nationwide. Lazy
summer frontal boundaries brought the wettest weather
since May to parts of the Corn Belt and central Plains. Farther west and
south, a wet region arced from the central Rockies to the Southeast.
Hurricane Bob accounted for most of the rainfall excesses in the Northeast.
Precipitation deficits mounted in the mid-Atlantic region, and dryness
persisted from the Nebraskan Plains northwestward. In the West, a mid-month
storm dropped unusual moisture from central California to the Great Basin. A
pair of late-month storms contributed heavily toward rainfall totals in the
Pacific Northwest.

Across the Nation's northern tier, unusual heat accompanied the often dry
conditions. Temperature departures exceeded +4 degrees F from southern Idaho
to northern Minnesota. In the South, extensive cloud cover, wet ground, and
rainfall depressed temperatures to near or below-normal. Upper air low
pressure systems off the West coast held temperatures slightly below normal in
interior California.

An air mass battle kept thunderstorms active from the Corn Belt southward in
early August. The boundary between Canadian and subtropica) air punched
through the Northeast, dropping only showers, but loitered across the Midwest
for several days, dumping locally heavy rain. The Canadian high pressure
system conquered after the 10th, shifting heavy rainfall into the South.

After mid-August, the influence of two tropical systems changed the rainfall
pattern. The remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Hilda linked with an
encroaching Canadian cold front to produce rain from central California to the
Corn Belt. Hurricane Bob struck the densely populated coastal Northeast,
causing extensive wind and flood damage from southeastern New York to Maine.
Bob's rains were followed by additional significant thunderstorms in New
England. Convection became far more scattered after the 20th, primarily
plaguing the South. While cool weather settled across the Northeast toward
month's end, a late~summer heat wave waxed in the Southwest and spread
eastward. Temperatures regularly reached 100 degrees F in the northern Plains
during the final week of August.

Boosted by a 7.83-inch rainfall from Hurricane Bob, Portland, ME, notched its
wettest month ever (15.22 inches; the former record was 13.50 inches in
November 1983). Shreveport, LA, returned to the weather headlines with its
third wettest August (9.23 inches), which leaves the city less than 4 inches
shy of an all-time wettest year. Yearly precipitation in New Orleans, LA,
rose to 92.23 inches by the end of August. The normal annual total is

59.74 inches. The monthly average temperature of 72.8 degrees F in Helena,
MT, was 0.6 degrees F higher than in August 1929, the previous hottest August
on record. In the East, one remarkable streak remained intact: Raleigh, NC,
recorded its 20th consecutive warmer-than-normal month.

August Crop Development: Scattered thundershowers throughout August

provided varying quantities of moisture to
developing crops in the eastern two-thirds of the Nation, while dry weather
predominated in the West. Small grain harvests approached completion and row
crop harvests got underway. Heavy rains from Hurricane Bob stalled farm
activity the latter half of the month in New England, and associated high
winds damaged northern Atlantic coast fruits and vegetables.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-3 NASS, USDA


Report Features

This "Crop Production" report will not contain the Citrus Fruit table as in
past years. The information in this table will be included in the "Citrus
Fruits" report to be released on September 25, 1991. The initial California
Navel orange forecast will be released with other citrus commodities on

October 10, 1991.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief

Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head
Kirby Cavett, Minor Oilseeds
Marty Owens, Rice, Weekly Crop Weather
Vaughn Siegenthaler, Rye, Sorghum, Wheat
Charles Van Lahr, Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition
Herb Vanderberry, Soybeans

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Steve Ropel, Head
Jim Brewster, Fruits, Fresh Vegetables
Arvin Budge, Potatoes, Dry Beans, Processing Vegetables
Kevin Hintzman, Fruits, Citrus, Nuts
Roger Latham, Cotton, Peanuts
Darwin Ransom, Sugar, Tobacco, Hay

Subscription Information

(202)

(202)
(202)
(202)
(202)
(202)
(202)

(202)
(202)
(202)
(202)
(202)
(202)

447-2127

447-3843
447-3180
447-2157
447-8068
447-7369
447-9526

447-3843
447-7688
447-4285
447-5412
447-5944
447-7621

To subscribe to NASS reports or to order single copies, call toll free,

1-800-999-6779 (weekdays 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET). You may write:

P.O. Box 1608, Rockville, MD. 20849-1608.

ERS/NASS,

The next “Crop Production" report will be released on October 10, 1991 at

3:00 p.m. ET.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1991 B-20

NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

eal September 7, 1991
Mrd |
4
“V7 i ODEAATE. = A Want Chart Sept 2 fe
v Sever or /
4 pre S ae ra = Ne
EXTREME? Kal
ODERAT!
ks , ) AD f MOIST A me Zo)
1 am -
i AVR a eons. MODERATE
¢
BIS 4 j rT 4 if EXTREME:
! od va ~
/ (Caw yy) 3: a
— 7
/ H “ 1\ 0% Be
moots «= MOIS: a o i
i COE - wa V4 S ae,
i} Ay \ SEVERE 7
7 ( a
Zi lo? ~ Ke
{f @O MOIST /
Sw woist iD
Most
MOIST
ray

NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY —sosed on proisainary report

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-2 NASS, USDA



Corn for Grain:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested

Yield Production
State ;----------------------~----+-----------------+-----~-------------------
1990 :Ind 1992 1989 1990
-- Bushels --- 9 --~-----~ 1,000 Bushels -------~-
0 75.0 14,580 13,920 16,500
0 165.0 1,885 1,120 825
0 105.0 7,076 6,935 8,400
0 165.0 29,600 25,600 21,450
0 155.0 134,850 128,650 131,750
0 90.0 13,300 19,780 15,120
0 70.0 5,920 5,325 5,250
0 100.0 52,250 37,400 55,000
0 125.0 6,250 3,900 5,625
0 105.0 1,322,250 1,320,800 1,165,500
0 93.0 691,600 703,050 $25,450
0 112.0 1,445,500 1,562,400 1,321,600
0 120.0 155,000 188,500 192,000
0 90.0 136,880 120,000 112,500
0 95.0 13,490 21,576 20,900
0 77.0 44,000 53,100 35,420
0 105.0 222,610 238,050 241,500
0 125.0 700,000 762,600 737,500
0 75.0 9,800 11,200 11,250
0 92.0 219,840 205,800 188,600
0 90.0 320 855 ’
0 122.0 847,000 934,400 963,800
0 112.0 7,242 8,850 8,736
0 155.0 9,600 7,975 9,300
0 90.0 53,010 60,760 62,100
0 90.0 88,350 72,760 85,500
0 90.0 34,875 36,800 54,000
0 90.0 342,200 417,450 319,500
0 115.0 9,360 10,032 10,925
0 150.0 3,520 2,700 3,300
0 70.0 98,880 109,610 66,500
0 88.0 30,940 14,400 21,560
0 75.0 190,800 234,000 243,750
0 83.0 56,710 43,860 45,390
0 112.0 148,400 130,500 179,200
0 140.0 2,640 2,660 2,800
0 80.0 40,150 36,500 25,600
0 170.0 15,750 14,000 14,960
0 70.0 4,370 5,250 3,850
to) 115.0 310,800 354,000 356,500
0 110.0 3,895 6,000 4,400
5 106.1 7,525,493 7,933,068 7,295,071

990

: ~ 1,000 Acres -
AL : 240 220
AZ 1/ : 7 5
AR T/: 73 80
CA : 160 130
co : 830 850
CT 2/ :
OE : 172 168
FLA/: 75 75
GA : 550 550
1D 1/ 30 45
IL 10,400 11,100
IN 5,450 5,650
IA 12,400 11,800
KS 1,450 1,600
KY : 1,200 1,250
LA l/: 186 220
ME 2/ :
MD : 450 460
MA 2/:
MI : 2,070 2,300
MN : 6,150 5,900
MS 1/: 140 150
MO : 1,960 2,050
MT 1/: 14
NE : 7,300 7,900
NH 2/
NO I/ : 75 78
NM 1/ : 55 60

: 620 690
NC 1,070 950
ND 460 600
OH 3,450 3,550
OK 1/ 95
OR 1/ 18 22
PA 970 950
RI 2/
Sc 320 245
sD 3,000 3,250
TN $ 510 510
1X : 1,450 1,600
UT 1/: 19 20
VT 2/:
VA : 365 320
WA 1/ : 80 88
we od/ 50 55
WI : 3,000 3,100
Wd/: 50 40
us : 66,952 68,740

1/ Estimates for current year

2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production
September 1991

carried forward from earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board
A-8 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1990-91

Production

Ind 1991: 1990 :Ind 1991: 1990 :Ind 1991

~-- Acres ----  --- Pounds --- - 1,000 Pounds -

Class and Type

Class 1, Flue-cured
Tye pe 11, Old and
paddle "pelts

: 106,000 104,000 2,090 2,200 221,540 228,800
: 40,000 38,000 2,120 2,100 84,800 79,800
Us : 146,000 142,000 2,098 2,173 306,340 308,600
ere 12, Eastern NC

$135,000 131,000 2,370 2,250 319,950 294,750
"EE 3 Ne Border &

: 35,000 35,000 2,290 2,200 80,150 77,000
Ng : 51,000 51,000 2,155 2,250 109,905 114,750
US : 86,000 86,000 2,210 2,230 190,055 191,750
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
L : 6,900 6,900 2,760 2,400 19,044 16,560
GA : 43,000 41,000 2,415 2,100 103,845 86,100
US : 49,900 47,900 2,463 2,143 122,889 102,660
Total 11-14 : 416,900 406,900 2,253 2,206 939,234 897,760

Class 2, Fire-cured
a 21, VA Belt

‘Bieen 22, Eastern
istrict

2,100 2,400 «1,315 1,300 2,762 3,120

: 3,150 3,3 2,450 2,100 7,718 6,930
i : 6,600 6,600 2,305 2,200 15,213 14,520
> 9,750 9,900 2,352 2,167 22,931 21,450
We pe 23, Western
st rict
: 3,100 3,200 2,600 2,100 8,060 6,720
N : 490 490 2,500 2,300 1,225 1,127
US : 3,590 3,690 2,586 2,127 9,285 7,847
Total 21-23 > 15,440 15,990 2,265 2,027 34,978 32,417
Class 3, Air-cured :
Class 3a, Light
Air-cured
Type 31, Burley
N : 6,400 7,200 2,100 2,000 13,440 14,400
KY : 185,000 213,000 2,270 2,100 419,950 447,300
MO 1/ : 2,600 3,000 2,280 2,150 5,928 6,450
NC : 8,200 8,900 2,195 1,850 17,999 16,465
OH : 9,700 10,500 1,950 2,050 18,915 21,525
TN : 46,000 53,000 2,060 2,050 94,760 108,650
VA : 11,000 12,000 2,055 2,100 22,605 25,200
Wo o1/ : 1,700 1,900 1,600 1,600 2,720 3,040
: 2705600 309,500 2,204 23078 596,317 643,030

Us
Type 32, Southern MD

elt
7,100 7,400 1,360 1,370 9,656 10,138

PA : 33600 3,800 1,850 1,850 6,660 7,030

US : 10,700 11,200 1,525 1; 533 16,316 17,168

Total 31-32 : 2813300 320;700 2,178 2;059 612,633 660,198
l/ Estimates for current year carried forward from eariler forecast.

~- continued

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1991 A-22 NASS, USDA


North Carolina's crop suffered from surplus soil moisture during the month.
Disease problems are occurring in both States.

The Southwest peanut crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to
total 918 million pounds, up 2 percent from the 902 million pounds forecasted
August 1 and up 12 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average
2,062 pounds per acre, 86 pounds above last year's yield. August rainfall
further improved peanut crop prospects in Oklahoma and Texas. Peanut harvest
was 5 percent complete in Texas, which expects a record high yield and
production.

Summer Potatoes: The final forecast of summer potato production rests at

23.1 million cwt, up slightly from last year and virtually
the same as last month. With the season practically over, farmers expect to
harvest 98,100 acres, an increase of 2 percent from a year earlier. Yield per
acre at 236 cwt is down 4 cwt from last year.

Yields along the East Coast suffered from dry weather during the growing
season and are ranging from 20 to 85 cwt per acre below last year. Further
deterioration occurred during August in Maryland and Alabama. Harvest is
mostly finished in the eastern producing States except in Delaware where rain
interrupted harvest in August.

Texas harvest neared completion in the High Plains by the end of August with
yields holding above last year. In New Mexico, digging is mostly finished in
the High Plains and progressing well in the four corners area. Colorado and
Nebraska summer harvests passed the half-way point about the first of
September with good overall production prospects. California's summer
production is turning out to be below last year.

In the North Central States, farmers complained of too much rain. Some
acreage was lost in Iowa, while wet soils and low prices slowed harvest in
Minnesota. Digging is virtually finished in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri.

Fall Potatoes, 1990 Final: Production of 1990 fall potatoes totaled

353 million cwt, up 9 percent from 1989 and just
1.1 million cwt smaller than the record high production of 1985. Harvested
acreage was 1.17 million acres, up 7 percent from a year earlier. The average
yield came in at 302 cwt per acre, up 3 cwt above 1989 and 10 cwt above 1988.

All Potatoes, 1990: Final 1990 production of potatoes from all four seasons

totaled 402 million cwt, up 9 percent from a year earlier
and 13 percent larger than 1988. This level is the second U. S. potato crop
to exceed 400 million cwt since the record high production of 1985. Area
harvested was 1.37 million acres, up 7 percent from 1989 and 9 percent above
1988. The average yield per acre was 293 cwt per acre, up 4 cwt from 1989 and
10 cwt above 1988.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1991 is forecast at 1.63 billion
pounds, compared with 1.64 billion pounds expected a month ago and
with last year's production of 1.63 billion pounds. Since August 1, outlook

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-10 NASS, USDA



improved in 7 of the 16 producing States, deteriorated in 4, and remained
unchanged in the remaining five States. Increased acreage from a year ago is
mostly offset by lower yields. Area expected to be harvested totals

764,390 acres, 4 percent more than a year ago. An average yield of

2,134 pounds per acre is forecast, compared with 2,218 pounds in 1990.

Flue-cured production is expected to reach 898 million pounds, down 4 percent
from a year ago and 1 percent below last month's forecast. Yield per acre, at
2,206 pounds is down 47 pounds from last year's average yield. Acres for
harvest are off 2 percent from 1990.

In North Carolina, excessive rainfall during the past two months delayed
harvest. Expected yield per acre is 26 pounds less than the outlook a month
ago.

South Carolina's harvest was active during August, though scattered showers
interrupted several times. By the first of September, harvest was 87 percent
complete compared with 81 percent last year and the 5-year average of

82 percent.

In Georgia, harvest was completed the last week of August, about a week ahead
of normal. Rainfall during the month was above normal, but drier than July.

Virginia growers were half finished with their harvest by September 1 and
marketing was heavy. There are pockets of drought affected fields but overall
the crop came through the May-July dry weather in good condition. Seasonal
rains through August filled out leaves and improved quality.

Burley output is expected to total 643 million pounds, 8 percent above a year
ago but 1 percent below the forecast of August 1. The change from last year
reflects a 14 percent acreage increase but the average yield is expected to be
126 pounds per acre less than in 1990. The decline from a month ago is the
result of lower yield expectations. The yield per acre is now expected to
average 2,078 pounds compared with the forecast of 2,097 pounds on

August 1 and 2,204 pounds realized for last year's crop.

In Kentucky, cutting continued at an active pace with 59 percent of the
acreage cut. Hot, dry weather resulted in early crop maturity. The crop is
curing well. Recent rain helped later set tobacco, but for the majority of
the acreage it was too little, too late.

In Tennessee, the crop in the east received rain which added pounds. This
gain was partially offset by losses in the middle of the State.

The dark fire-cured crop is forecast at 32.4 million pounds, down 7 percent
from last year and off 2 percent from expectations a month ago. The decrease
from a year ago results from a drop of 238 pounds per acre in the average
yield. That decline is partly offset by a 4 percent increase in acreage.

Southern Maryland type tobacco is expected to total 17.2 million pounds, up
6 percent from the forecast a month ago and 5 percent above 1990. The larger
production from a year earlier comes from 5 percent more acreage for harvest.
Yields are expected to average 1,533 pounds per acre, 8.0 pounds above
1990's 1,525 pounds.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-11 NASS, USDA



Pecans: Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1989-91

Production

Crop and State : Utilized

1,000 Pounds
AL : 13,000 4,000 10,000

AR : 100 100 500
CA : 2,000 2,800 2,800
FL : 4,000 2,000 2,100
GA : 69,000 56,000 100,000
LA : 2,500 1,500 3,000
MS : 5,500 1,800 6,000
NM : 29,000 34,000 28,000
NC : 300 100 1,100
OK : 1,000 800 1,500
Sc : 600 400 2,200
1X : 34,000 40,000 35,000
US : 161,000 143,500 192,200
Pecans Native & Seedling :
AL : 9,000 1,000 5,000
AR : 900 150 700
FL : 3,000 1,600 1,600
GA : 16,000 9,000 15,000
LA : 11,500 4,500 12,000
MS : 3,000 400 2,000
NC : 400 300 1,400
OK : 8,000 4,200 12,500
sc : 400 100 1,300
1X : 21,000 20,000 30,000
US : 73,200 41,250 81,500
All Pecans :
AL : 22,000 5,000 15,000
AR : 1,000 250 1,200
CA : 2,000 2,800 2,800
FL : 7,000 3,600 3,700
GA : 85,000 65,000 115,000
LA : 14,000 6,000 15,000
MS : 8,500 2,200 8,000
NM : 29,000 34,000 28,000
NC : 700 400 2,500
OK : 9,000 5,000 14,000
sc : 1,000 500 3,500
1X : 55,000 60,000 65,000
Oth Sts 2/ : 16,300 20,250 18,300
US : 250,500 205,000 292,000

1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ AZ, KS, MO, and TN. No
breakdown between improved varieties and native and seedling varieties
available.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-28 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Crop
and
Unit

Yield

1990

118.5
62.9
55.9
39.5
34.9
36.7

5,507

34.0
1,991
634
632
758

1,554
240
293

2,218

20.0
35.4

71

(Domestic Units)

per Acre

tIndicated:

1991

106.1
56.2
55.5
34.6
34.4
34.5

5,563

31.0
2,558
638
634
868
1,706
236

2,134
19.9

35.2
72

1990

7,933,068
571,483
418,856

2,738,594
122,171
583,124
154,919

1,921,787
3,602,770
15,499.4
15,140.9
358.5
5,966.5,
32,429

23,097
402,110
1,625,147
27,538

28,136
963.8
5,659.9
147.0
47.8
21.7
205,000

118,000
227.0

Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1990-91

Production

Pasture and range feed condition as of first of month.

Corn for Grain Bu
Sorghum for Grain "
Barley "

All Wheat "
Durum "
Other Spring . :

Rice Cwt 1/:

Soybeans for :
Beans Bu

Peanuts for Nuts Lb :

All Cotton Bale I/:
Upland "OV:
Amer-Pima " U:

Cottonseed Ton:

Dry Edible Beans Cwt 1/:

Potatoes :
Summer Cwt
Total 2/ "

Tobacco Lb

Sugarbeets Ton

Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed "

Pasture and
Range Feed 3/ Pct

Pears Ton

Grapes "

Dried Prunes
(Ca) .

Prunes and Plums
(Excl Ca) "

Hazelnuts .

Pecans tb

Pistachio Nuts
(Ca) tb

Walnuts (Ca) Ton

1/ Yield in pounds.

2/ 1990 revised.

3/

average is 72 percent.

4/ July 1, 1991.

5/ Mid-August 1991.

Crop Production

Sept

ember 1991

A-4

7,417,531 7,295,071
564,515 547,665
469,961 467,871

2,032,980 2,012,526
114, 167 114,353
546,867 526,227
156,964 157,479

1,868,825 1,816,825

5,098,200 5,023,200

17,648.4 7,868.4
17,223.8  17,445.8
424.6 422.6
6,818.9 6,902.7
31,041 31,913
23,119 23,124
1,643,681 1,631,347
27,474 27,557
31,653 31,645
880.6 882.1
5,266.8 5,266.8
4/180.0 180.0
32.8 26.8
5/26.0 26.0
292,000
48,000
240.0 250.0
The 1980-89

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


For example, the “Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 5.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of

3 that the current production forecast of 7.30 billion bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 5.0 percent or approximately
365 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
that the difference will not exceed 8.6 percent or approximately 627 million
bushels.

Also shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of
the differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimates.
Using corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and
the final estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 191 million bushels,
ranging from 10 million to 467 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has
been below the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply
that the September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or
overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts
have been below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts
10-Year Record of
Differences between Forecast
and Final Estimate

Crop and
Unit

: :Below:Above
Avg:Smal1:Large:Final:Final

Feed Grains 1/ Mt: 4.0 6.9 15 5 90 3 5 5
Corn for Grain Bu: 5.0 8.6 627 191 10 467 5 5
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 4.2 7.2 39 281 65 6 4
Barley Bu: 3.6 6.4 30 8 0 23 4 6
All Wheat Bu: 0.9 1.6 32 23,0 2 51 5 5

Durum Bu: 4.6 8.0 9 31 (0 12 5 5

Other Spring Bu: 1.9 3.4 18 9 1 24 4 6
Rice Cwt: 3.5 6.0 3 5 2 9 7 3
Soybeans for :

Beans Bu: 4.8 8.2 149 78 19 167 5 5
Cotton Bales 2/: 6.5 11.2 2,001 585 5 1,914 5 5
Dry Edible :

Beans 5.5 9.5 3 1.0 0.1 2.8 5 5
1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats, and barley.

2/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1991 B-18 NASS, USDA



Florida crop, at 3.70 million pounds, is up 3 percent from last year's crop.
Abundant rainfall] has caused disease problems for many growers. The pecan
forecast for Louisiana is 15.0 million pounds, up 150 percent from last year.
The pecan crop is in fair to good condition at this time. The Mississippi
pecan forecast is 8.00 million pounds, up 264 percent from last season's
drought reduced crop. All areas of the State have heavy scab problems due to
excessive moisture earlier in the year. New Mexico's forecast is 28.0 million
pounds, down 18 percent from last season. A late freeze damaged the crop in
several areas of the State. The North Carolina forecast is 2.50 million, over
five times larger than last year's small crop. Dry conditions during the
summer also reduced this year's crop volume. Oklahoma's forecast is

14.0 million pounds, 180 percent above last year's low production. The crop
appears to be in good condition with some insect damage reported. The South
Carolina forecast is 3.50 million pounds, a 600 percent increase over the

1990 crop. Scab is a problem in some areas, as well as premature nut
droppage. The "Other States" forecast of 18.3 million pounds is down

10 percent from last year. Arizona, Kansas, Missouri, and Tennessee are
included in this production forecast. Arizona growers Jost some crop
potential from frost damage in the spring and aphids in the summer. This
season is also the "down" year in the Arizona pecan cycle.

Pears: The final forecast for the U.S. crop is 882,100 tons, up slightly

from the August 1 forecast but 8 percent less than 1990. Picking is
nearing completion in Michigan. Fruit size and quality have been excellent
this year. In New York, harvest began in the Lake Ontario Region about 7 to
10 days ahead of normal. Fruit size is smaller than normal because of the
drought conditions in the early summer. Bosc harvest should begin about
September 11, which is about 10 days earlier than normal.

The Bartlett crop in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at
505,000 tons, unchanged from last month but 12 percent less than last year.
California's crop is about 85 percent picked. Fruit size has been variable
and quality has been average. Harvest continues in Oregon. Hail, on August
21, caused light damage to the crop in the Medford area. Picking of a good
clean crop is nearing completion in Washington.

Production of pears other than Bartlett, in the Pacific Coast States, is
forecast at 346,000 tons, up 1 percent from the August 1 forecast but

5 percent less than the 1990 crop. In California, harvest of a good quality
crop is in full swing. Picking has just started in Washington. Growers
expect to have a nice clean crop, although there has been some minor hail
damage.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-16 NASS, USDA



Cotton:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested

Yield
1990 :In

Production 1/

1990

Ind 1991

Upland :

L : 378.0
AZ > 348.0
AR : 750.0
CA : 1,090.0
FL 3/ : 36.0
GA : 350.0
KS 3/ : 1.2
LA : _ 790.0
MS : 1,220.0
MO : 235.0
NM : 62.0
NC : 200.0
OK : 370.0
sc > 154.0
IN : _ 515.0
1X : 5,000.0
VA 3/ : 5.3
us 711,504.5
Amer-Pima:

AZ > 124.0
CA 25.5
MS 1.3
NM 19.3
TX 57.0
US 227.1
All

AL 378.0
AZ 472.0
AR 750.0
CA : 1,115.5
FL 3 36.0
GA 350.0
KS 3, 1.2
LA >. 790.0
MS : 1,221.3
MO : 235.0
NM 81.3
NC 200.0
OK 370.0
sc 154.0
IN : _ 515.0
TTM : 5,057.0
VA 3/ 5.3
us

17

13,205.

94.
60.
1.
20.
58.
233.

425.
463.
950.
990.

50.
425.

770.
1,241.
265.
83.
456.
420.
208:
615.
6,058.
17.

13,439.

wWNOSGODOOOOND00000

_
MNODDOCOOCOCOROSCSCOND

: -- 1,000 Acres --

425.
369.
950.
930.

50
425.

1

770.
1,240.
265.
63.
456.
420.
208.
615.
6,000.

NcCOoCoON

476
1,110
692
1,204
640
555
280
715
728
641
735
631
496
452
461
477
562
632

751
1,080
591
609
682
758

476
1,016
692
1,201
640
555
280
715
728
641
706
631
496
452
461
479
562

d 1991: 1989
5S Ute
587 383.0
1,236 649.0
758 (851.0
1,161 2,661.0
720 29.0
700 342.0
320 0.2
748 868.0
755 1,555.0
652 269.0
724 80.0
674 141.0
377 173.0
577 154.0
453 476.0
488 2,870.0
675 2.7
634 11,503.9
963 477.0
1,020 40.2
528 1.0
624 445
646 129:0
868 691.7
587 383.0
1,180 1,126.0
758 851.0
1,153 2,701.2
720 29.0
700 342.0
320 0.2
748 868.0
755 1,556.0
652 269.0
700 124.5
674 141.0
377 173.0
577 154.0
453 476.0
490 2,999.0
675 2:7
638 12,195.6

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous

Crop Production
September 1991

2/ 480-Lb. Net weight

375.0 520.0
805.0 950.0
1,081.0 1,500.0
2,734.0 2,250.0
48.0 75.0
405.0 620.0
0.7 1.2
1,177.0 1,200.0
1,850.0 1,950.0
314.0 360.0
95.0 95.0
263.0 640.0
382.0 330.0
145.0 250.0
495.0 580.0
4,965.0 6,100.0
6.2 24.6
15,140.9 17,445.8
194.0 190.0
57.4 127.5
1.6 1.1
24.5 26.0
81.0 78.0
358.5 422.6
375.0 520.0
999.0 1,140.0
1,081.0 1,500.0
2,791.4 2,377.5
48.0 75.0
405.0 620.0
0.7 1.2
1,177.0 1,200.0
1,851.6 1,951.1
314.0 360.0
119.5 121.0
263.0 640.0
382.0 330.0
145.0 250.0
495.0 580.0
5,046.0 6,178.0
6.2 24.6
15,499.4 17,868.4
bales.
orecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Peanuts for Nuts:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,

by State and United States, 1989-91

Production 1/

State :----------~-----------~---------------------------------------------+---

: --1,000 Acres ---
AL : 256.0 288.
FL : 94.0 92.
GA : 770.0 865.
NM 3 20.0 25.
NC > 164.0 164,
OK : 106.0 110.
sc : 13.5 13.
1X : 289.0 310.
VA : 97.0 96.
US 1,809.5 1,963

-- Pounds --~
0 1,510 2,600
0 2,480 2,700
0 1,750 2,700
0 2,500 2,500
0 2,900 2,800
0 2,220 2,280
5 2,230 2,600
0 1,850 1,950
0 3,195 2,900
5 1,991 2,558

537,750 386,560 748,800
214,890 233,120 248,400
1,849,500 1,347,500 2,335,500
43,680 50,000 62,500
370,120 475,600 459,200
210,700 235,320 250,800
32,500 30,105 35,100
484, 700 534,650 604,500
246,155 309,915 278,400

3,989,995 3,602,770 5,023,200

1/ Estimates comprised

Crop Production
September 1991

of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA



Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1990-91
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

CROP
1990 1991 1990
1,000 Acres

Corn : 74,171 75,909 66,952 68,740
Sorghun : 10,535 11,046 9,079 9,743
Barle : 8,201 8,926 7,499 8,429
All Wheat : 77,286 70,031 69,353 58,137

Durum 3 3,565 3,378 3,502 3,321

Other Spring 3 16,723 15,604 15,875 15,267
Rice : 2,887.0 2,870.0 2,813.0 2,831.0
Soybean : 57,795 59,775 56,502 58,633
Peanuts : 1,840.0 1,990.0 1,809.5 1,963.5
All Cotton > :12,348.1 14,091.2 11,731.6 13, 439.0

Upland : 12,116.8 13,855.0 11,504.5 13, 205.3

Amer-Pima : 231.3 236.2 227.1 233.7
Dry Edible Beans : 2,178.6 1,933.0 2,086.4 1,870.2
Potatoes :

Summer : 103.5 103.4 96.3 98.1

Total 2/ H 1,399.7 1,400.0 1,370.6 1,375.0
Tobacco : 732.7 764.4
Sugarbeets : 1,399.4 1,405.7 1,376.2 1,386.2
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 794.2 898.5

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, i.e., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ 1990 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1990-91
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

Crop : : : : Indicated
: 1990 : 1991 1/ : 1990 : 1991 1/
1,000 Acres
Oats : 10,423 8,648 5,940 4,972
Winter Wheat : 56,998 51,049 49,976 39,549
Rye : 1,625 1,686 373 434
Flaxseed : 260 305 253 292
Sunflower : 1,905 2,595 1,851 2,533
AY Hay : 61,557 63,134
Alfalfa : 25,401 25,845
All Other : 36,156 37,289
Potatoes H
Winter 13.5 13.2 13.2 11.7
Sprin : 96.2 89.1 95.) 87.4
Fall 2/ : 1,186.5 1,194.3 1,166.0 1,177.8
Sweetpotatoes : 93.9 80.6 89.5 17.8

Hops

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1990 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-3 NASS, USDA


excessive spring rains and late plantings. Rainfall in Georgia and South
Carolina during August caused concern of bol] rot. Excessive August rains
caused a slight decline in North Carolina's production prospects.

Ginnings totaled 698,800 running bales prior to September 1, compared with
582,485 running bales for the same date last year and 382,250 running bales in

1989.

Cottonseed: Production for 1991, based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio,
is expected to total 6.90 million tons, up 16 percent from the
1990 production of 5.97 million tons.

Dry Edible Beans: The 1991 crop of dry beans is forecast at 31.9 million cwt,
3 percent above the August 1 forecast but 2 percent below

last year. Area for harvest, forecast at 1.87 million acres, is down

10 percent from a year ago. Yields are projected at a record high

1,706 pounds per acre, a gain of 152 pounds from last year.

Crop development is ahead of normal and harvest is moving rapidly in early
areas. Yields in most States are higher than a year ago. Hot weather reduced
prospects in New York. Michigan's dry beans are expected to yield almost as
much as last year except in the northern "Thumb" area. Improved prospects
from August 1 are expected in Minnesota and North Dakota. In Nebraska and
Wyoming, recent hot weather moved potentially late crops to normal. The
Colorado crop acreage was 18 percent windrowed and 13 percent harvested on
September 1, 1991. Idaho beans are slightly late with harvest just starting.
California growers began harvest in late August with yield expectations down
from last month.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at a record high 5.02 billion pounds, down
1 percent from the August 1 forecast but up 39 percent from last

year. Excessively wet conditions and disease during the previous month

combined to lower expectations. Harvested area, estimated at 1.96 million

acres, is 9 percent above last year. Yields are expected to average

2,558 pounds per harvested acre, down 38 pounds from last month but up

567 pounds from 1990.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to tota) 3.37 billion pounds. This total is 2 percent
below August 1 but up 69 percent from 1990. Yield for the 4-State area is
expected to average 2,676 pounds per acre, 914 pounds more than last year's
drought stricken yields. In Georgia, disease pressure has been greater than
normal, lowering expected yields from last month despite generally favorable
weather. Irrigation of late planted peanuts was necessary in some areas.
This State's crop acreage was rated 4 percent poor, 21 percent fair,

73 percent good and 2 excellent as of September 1. By September 1, 7 percent
of Alabama's acreage was dug and 2 percent was combined.

The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 738 million pounds, down
4 percent from last month and down 6 percent from last year. Yield per
harvested acre, at 2,837 pounds, is 173 pounds below last year's average.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-9 NASS, USDA


Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, Hawaii, by Month, 1990-91

Area Fresh Production

Harvested

--- 1,000 Pounds ---

Jul: 3,885 3,405 2,405 1,910 3,145 3,150
Aug : 3,760 3,675 2,175 2,080 6,160 3,240
Sep : 3,695 2,220 4,815
Oct : 3,655 2,405 5,170
Nov : 3,610 2,420 5,555
Dec : 3,400 2,285 4,645
Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-Aug 37,815 28,065

Grapes: Production by Type, State, and United States

Production

Crop and State Total 1/ Ind
warn e 2-2-2 2 -------------+------ 1991

1989 : 1990

Tons

Grapes Table Type :
CA : 630,000 645,000 570,000

Grapes Wine Type :
CA

: 2,190,000 2,195,000 2,200,000

Grapes Raisin Type 2/ :
CA : 2,570,000 2,345,000 1,950,000

All Grapes 3
AZ 3/ : 26,500 26,000 25,000
AR 3/ : 6,500 5,100 8,300
CA : 5,390,000 5,185,000 4,720,000
GA 3/ : 2,800 2,900 3,200
MI : 43,000 46,000 46,000
MO 3/ : 3,600 1,300 2,700
NY : 152,000 144,000 180,000
NC 3/ : 1,700 1,500 1,800
OH 3/ : 8,000 7,700 7,900
OR 3/ : 7,450 7,000 9,500
PA : 60,000 53,000 75,000
sc 3/ : 300 400 400
WA : 229,000 180,000 187,000
us : 5,930,850 5,659,900 5,266,800

1/_ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons): 1989 - 800;
1990 - 120. 2/ Fresh basis. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward
from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-26 NASS, USDA


Index Numbers of Crop Production
United States, 1982-91 (1977=100)

Production

Year : : : : : :
: All 1/ : Feed Food : Sugar : Cotton : Tobacco: Oi}
3 : Grains : Grains : Crops : Crops
122 109 138 96 85 104 121
67 100 116 93 54 75 91
115 107 129 95 90 90 106
133 106 121 95 93 79 117
123 107 106 106 68 61 107
106 101 107 111 103 62 108
73 88 98 105 107 72 89
108 100 107 105 8s 71 107
112 101 136 108 108 85 107
104 107 106 114 124 85 104

1/ Includes some miscellaneous crop production not included in separate groups
of crops shown.

This report was approved on September 12, 1991, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural
Statistics Board.

OS. fl

‘Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Ann Veneman Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1991 A-2 NASS, USDA




Grain sorghum was heading on nearly half of the acreage in the 12 major
producing States by the beginning of August, ahead of both last year and the
historic average. Harvest was underway in southern Texas. Crop condition was
mostly good in the High Plains and fair in Kansas and the Mississippi Valley.
Lack of rain and high temperatures in the Great Plains during the month hurt
crop conditions. Grain sorghum heads were turning color on 60% of the acreage
by the end of the month, 13 points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of
the historic average. Thirty-three percent of the crop was mature, ahead of
27% recorded a year ago. Crop maturity remained behind norma] in the
Mississippi Valley and Colorado but ahead of schedule elsewhere. Harvest was
continuing in the Southern States and getting underway in Missouri.

Spring wheat harvest was in the early stages entering August, and mostly dry
weather during the month allowed harvest to progress unhindered. Harvest was
92% complete by the end of the month, compared with 91% last year and

88% average.

Corn for Grain: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 7.30 billion

bushels, down 2 percent from last month and 8 percent below
the 1990 crop. The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at 106.1 bushels,
down 1.7 bushels from last month and 12.4 bushels below the 1990 average
yield.

The area harvested and to be harvested for grain, at 68.7 million acres is
down slightly from August. The only decline is in Ohio, which lowered the
expected acreage for grain by 50,000 acres. The drought conditions in Indiana
and Ohio continued to reduce expected yields. Unfavorable growing conditions
also lowered yield expectations in Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION
1982 - 1991

10.00

o
oe
®

®

»
N
©

3

3

8.00.-R

6.00}-

Tl

ME

2.00.
0.0
82 83 B4 85 86 87 388 89 90 1
YEAR
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

a

September 1991 B- NASS, USDA



The Washington all grape forecast, at 187,000 tons, is unchanged from the
August 1 forecast but 4 percent above the 1990 production. Harvest is
expected to be 7 to 10 days later than normal due to a cool spring.

The New York grape forecast is 180,000 tons, unchanged from last month but
25 percent larger than the 1990 crop. The crop remains in good condition
while Concord grape harvest is expected to be one of the earliest ever.

Michigan's forecast of 46,000 tons is unchanged from last month and last year.
The fruit is reported to be of good quality with average size berry clusters.

The Pennsylvania forecast is 75,000 tons, unchanged from August 1 but
42 percent higher than 1990. The crop is generally in good condition despite
a shortage of rainfall throughout the growing season.

Prunes and Plums: California's prune production (dried basis) is forecast

at 180,000 tons, unchanged from the July 1 forecast but
22 percent more than last year's crop. Harvest is at its peak. Fruit size,
quality, and sugar content are good.

Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is
forecast at 26,800 tons, 18 percent less than the amount expected on

August 1 and 44 percent less than 1990. Michigan's harvest is about two to
three weeks ahead of normal and nearing completion. Production expectations
were more than halved in Oregon from last month's forecast, as the effects of
the December freeze and a cool, wet spring became more evident. Harvest is
also nearing completion in Washington.

California Fruits and Nuts: Grape harvest remained two weeks behind normal.

Packing of fresh varieties continued throughout
the month of August along with raisin lay and wine grape harvest. Vineyards
were treated to control leafhoppers, worms, whitefly, and mildew. Harvest of
early apple varieties, including Granny Smith, Gravenstein, and Gala, began in
early August. Peaches, plums, and nectarines of good quality continued to be
packed. Peaches were treated with fungicide after showers during the second
week of August. Prunes for processing were picked by mid-August, while fresh
prunes continued to be packed. Packing of both Asian and Bartlett pears
gathered momentum in early August. Almond harvest reached full swing by the
last week of August while preparations for pistachio harvest were just
underway. Walnuts were sizing well, with a generally heavy set. Pomegranates
continued to mature with the first picking expected early next month. Packing
of Southern California Valencia oranges neared completion. Navel oranges
continued to mature with smaller than normal sizes reported. Avocado growth
looked excellent, even in freeze damaged groves.

Florida Citrus: Groves and trees are in good to excellent condition.

Surface and subsurface moisture levels are generally adequate
in all areas due to above average rainfall. There is an abundance of new
growth on trees of all ages. New crop fruit is sizing well. Early harvest of
grapefruit started August 16th. Caretakers have been cutting rapidly growing
cover crops. Summer applications of fertilizer and pesticide spray slowed in
most areas. Young tree and new grove planting continues in most counties.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 B-14 NASS, USDA



Coffee: Production, Hawaii, 1989-91

1989-1990 1990-1991

1,000 Pounds

1/ Parchment basis.

Pears: Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1989-91

Production
Crop and State : Total 1/
Satta laa att hata hadatattatatatats Ind
1989 1990 1991
Tons
Bartlett
CA : 298,000 314,000 295,000
OR : 67,000 83,000 65,000
WA : 157,000 177,000 145,000
Total : 522,000 574,000 505,000
Excluding Bartlett —:
CA : 17,000 18,000 21,000
OR : 148,000 150,000 160,000
WA : 192,000 195,000 165,000
Total : 357,000 363,000 346,000
an :
CA : 315,000 332,000 316,000
co : 4,000 2,500 3,600
cT : 1,200 1,100 1,200
MI : 8,000 2,500 5,000
NY : 16,500 14,600 14,500
OR : 215,000 233,000 225,000
PA : 5,500 3,300 4,400
UT : 2,600 2,800 2,400
WA : 349,000 372,000 310,000
US : 916,800 963,800 882,100
1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):
U.S.; 1989 - 350, 1990 - 150.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1991 A-29 NASS, USDA



Wheat Production by Classes, United States

Winter Spring
Year Hard : Soft : : Hard TOTAL
Red : Red : White : Red : Durum White :
1,000 Bushels
1989 : 711,040 548,919 194,683 433,455 92,229 56,292 2,036,618
1990 : 1,198,855 549,478 284,966 554,678 122,171 28,446 2,738,594
1991 2/ 888,689 334,868 148,390 456,160 114,353 70,066 2,012,526

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing states. Unless unusual situations dictate, the
previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season.

2/ Indicated September 1, 1991.

Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Ind 1991

--- Pounds ---  --------- 1,000 Cwt ---------
AR -0 0 5,000 5,300 63,840 60,000 71,020
CA -0 -0 7,600 7,600 32,390 29,260 23,940
LA: .0 .0 4,860 4,900 21,488 26,469 25,235
MS : .0 0 5,700 5,600 13,395 14,250 13,720
MO 1/ : 80.0 98.0 4,700 4,900 4,108 3,760 4,802
TX : 353.0 318.0 6,000 5,900 19,266 21,180 18,762
US 2,813.0 2,831.0 5,507 5,563 154,487 154,919 157,479

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice Production by Classes, United States, 1989-91

1,000 Cwt

1989 ; 109, 161 41,441 3,885 154,487
1990 ; 108,220 44,920 1,779 154,919
1991 1/ : 112,264 44,418 197 157,479

1/ Indicated September 1, 1991, rice class forecasts are based on a five year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-13 NASS, USDA



Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1989-91

Production
State tener nn nnn nn nn nnn nnn nn nn ne nn nor nr nn nn renew eorncnerececeseewereccces
1989 1990 Ind 1991
1,000 Tons
US 4,677.4 5,966.5 6,902.7
Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91 1/
Area Harvested : Yield Production
State Sper r tren nn nnn nnn rn nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nn nnn nnn r nnn nnn serene
1990 :Ind 1991: 1990 :Ind 1991
- 1,000 Acres - --- Pounds ---
Large Lima :
CA : 23.0 29.0 1,990 2,050 618 458 595
Baby Lima :
CA 25.0 34.0 2,200 2,300 728 550 782
Other :
iff : 120.0 74.0 1,750 1,850 2,011 2,100 1,369
A 3
CA : 168.0 137.0 1,850 2,004 3,357 3,108 2,746
co : 225.0 195.0 1,900 1,950 3,108 4,275 3,803
ID : 178.0 143.0 2,000 2,050 3,444 3,560 2,932
KS 2/ : 38.0 32.0 1,750 1,700 326 665 544
MI : 330.0 340.0 1,650 1,600 3,975 5,445 5,440
MN > 136.0 120.0 1,300 1,550 910 1,768 1,860
MT 2/ : 13.0 12.3 1,690 1,700 130 220 209
NE : 254.0 210.0 1,970 2,000 3,494 5,004 4,200
NM 2/ : 14.0 16.0 1,650 2,000 280 231 320
NY : 39.5 35.0 1,700 1,350 450 672 473
ND 550.0 500.0 910 1,400 2,460 5,005 7,000
OR 2/ 3/ 9.0 7.0 2,000 2,000 180 140
TX 2/ 3/ 21.0 15.0 1,050 1,400 221 210
UT 2/ 4.0 §.5 330 400 15 13 22
WA 47.0 50.0 1,940 2,000 929 912 1,000
WI 2/ 3/ 10.9 11.4 1,700 1,700 185 194
W 49.0 41.0 1,970 2,000 851 965 820
US 2,086.4 1,870.2 1,554 1,706 23,729 32,429 31,913

1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed.
2/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
3/ Estimates began in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1991 A-16 NASS, USDA