Cr Pr 2-2 (1-02)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released January 11, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Virtually Unchanged 

The U.S. all orange January 1 forecast for the 2001-02 crop is 12.5 million tons, virtually unchanged from

the December 1 forecast but up 1 percent from last season’s final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast

remains at 231 million boxes (10.4 million tons), 3 percent more than the previous season. Weather

conditions until the last of December had been mostly dry and warm. Early and midseason varieties in

Florida are forecast at 131 million boxes (5.90 million tons), the same as the December forecast. If realized,

this production will be 2 percent higher than last season. Fruit size is the third smallest of the 10-season

series. Loss from droppage is slightly above average. Florida’s Valencia forecast is 100 million boxes

(4.50 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent higher than last season’s final

utilization. Fruit size is slightly below average. Loss from droppage is below average. 

The all orange forecast for California, at 54.0 million boxes (2.03 million tons), is the same as the October 1

forecast but down 8 percent from the previous season. California’s Navel orange harvest is 20 percent

complete. Fruit size is larger than last season. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.90 million boxes

(81,000 tons), down 300,000 boxes from the initial October forecast and 335,000 boxes less than last season. 

Arizona’s all orange utilization is forecast at 700,000 boxes (26,000 tons), a decrease of 50,000 boxes from

the previous forecast and 200,000 boxes below the final 2000-01 utilization. If realized, it will be the fifth

consecutive season of declining utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield is projected at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees

Brix. This is an increase from December’s projection of 1.55 gallons per box. The early and midseason

portion is projected at 1.52 gallons per box, the same as last season. The Valencia portion is projected to

yield 1.68 gallons per box versus last season’s 1.65 final yield. All projections of yield assume that the

processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on January 11, 2002.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

J. B. Penn

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................5

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Hay Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

U.S. Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 4 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2000-2002

Seasonal

Group

and

State

Area

Yield Production

Planted Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring 1

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

9.0

7.8

16.8

8.2

15.5

25.6

18.5

7.1

19.5

9.5

78.3

7.0

6.8

13.8

9.0

5.0

14.0

8.2

15.5

25.0

18.0

7.0

18.5

9.0

76.2

7.0

6.5

13.5

310

265

294

270

390

319

330

290

190

230

286

300

275

288

2,880

2,080

4,960

2,520

7,426

6,343

4,868

1,475

3,400

2,232

21,921

2,790

1,325

4,115

2,214

6,045

7,970

5,940

2,030

3,515

2,070

21,814

2,100

1,788

3,888

 1 2001 revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2000-2001

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2000 2001

2000 2001 2000 2001

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Nov 2

Dec

2,720

2,695

2,710

2,575

1,695

1,875

1,930

1,835

4,430

4,710

4,100

3,575

 1 Utilized fresh production. 2 2001 revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1999-2000, 2000-2001 and Forecasted January 1, 2002 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 4

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 Other 4

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 5

 CA 5

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus

 FL

600

40,000

134,000

1,460

176,060

500

24,000

99,000

200

123,700

1,100

64,000

233,000

1,660

299,760

1,950

20,900

31,900

600

450

7,200

53,400

5,930

66,980

850

2,500

7,000

10,350

3,100

19,000

22,100

2,200

110

480

36,000

128,000

2,000

166,480

420

23,000

95,300

235

118,955

900

59,000

223,300

2,235

285,435

1,250

18,700

27,300

250

6,500

46,000

7,200

59,950

650

2,100

5,600

8,350

3,600

22,700

26,300

2,100

40

350

32,000

131,000

1,700

165,050

350

22,000

100,000

200

122,550

700

54,000

231,000

1,900

287,600

1,400

19,000

28,000

200

6,200

47,000

7,300

60,700

650

2,300

6,400

9,350

3,100

22,000

25,100

2,300

30

22

1,500

6,030

62

7,614

19

900

4,455

9

5,383

41

2,400

10,485

71

12,997

88

888

1,356

25

15

241

2,269

237

2,762

32

94

332

458

118

722

840

99

5

18

1,350

5,760

85

7,213

16

862

4,289

10

5,177

34

2,212

10,049

95

12,390

56

795

1,160

8

218

1,955

288

2,469

24

79

266

369

137

863

1,000

95

2

13

1,200

5,895

72

7,180

13

825

4,500

9

5,347

26

2,025

10,395

81

12,527

63

808

1,190

7

208

1,998

292

2,505

24

86

304

414

118

836

954

104

1

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early

Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01

crop. 5 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 6 NASS, USDA

Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,

December 1 and May 1, 1999-2001

State Dec 1 May 1

1999 2000 1 2001 2000 2001

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

1,472

184

1,900

2,285

2,900

47

15

550

1,245

2,617

1,600

1,316

4,700

5,800

4,006

502

138

300

84

2,110

5,490

1,350

5,997

4,448

4,900

867

65

109

595

1,900

1,090

5,291

1,830

4,200

2,245

1,700

8

410

9,500

2,655

6,568

1,540

229

1,883

1,377

524

5,900

2,480

108,922

1,000

250

2,150

1,954

1,770

82

29

450

950

2,857

1,700

1,629

4,500

4,500

5,316

415

145

525

108

3,460

4,446

850

5,392

3,168

3,500

801

66

156

600

2,280

1,300

5,212

3,390

3,700

1,766

2,800

11

518

8,200

3,405

7,104

1,150

280

2,900

1,303

1,144

4,800

1,550

105,582

2,100

223

2,280

1,961

1,990

59

16

510

1,599

2,568

1,600

1,311

4,300

5,600

4,214

1,096

137

355

105

3,450

4,213

1,833

6,989

3,600

4,800

776

50

90

600

2,250

1,215

5,020

3,591

3,300

1,901

2,100

8

448

8,235

4,140

7,477

1,470

288

2,384

1,513

939

4,300

1,506

110,510

202

27

500

381

690

8

6

80

240

257

410

290

1,150

1,400

577

91

23

65

17

1,170

1,570

135

1,445

1,011

1,500

290

11

28

185

385

255

1,430

430

1,000

128

440

1

88

3,100

607

2,627

320

60

257

165

40

3,000

725

28,817

100

33

270

180

286

21

4

25

190

265

340

342

700

500

1,439

30

40

61

30

1,000

960

45

799

427

500

112

14

47

75

625

277

1,120

835

450

241

1,200

2

100

1,550

804

1,450

200

70

745

195

276

1,980

151

21,106 1 Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

4,967.0

75,752.0

4,403.0

650.0

3,335.0

1,328.0

10,252.0

59,617.0

41,078.0

2,910.0

15,629.0

1,494.0

585.0

45.8

1,543.0

3.7

188.0

74,105.0

2,653.0

15,787.8

15,527.0

260.8

1,371.1

15.9

1,429.9

211.8

201.0

1,267.1

16.8

78.3

60.9

1,111.1

97.9

41,031.0

13.8

4,289.0

68,808.0

6,148.0

63,511.0

23,812.0

39,699.0

1,905.0

580.0

3,314.0

255.0

8,584.0

336.0

48,653.0

31,295.0

2,789.0

14,569.0

1,455.0

578.0

44.2

1,400.5

3.1

177.0

73,000.0

2,580.0

13,810.0

13,551.0

259.0

1,243.7

1,029.2

432.6

7.1

1,243.0

196.8

197.0

6.3

0.4

35.9

78.5

1,241.3

14.0

76.2

58.6

1,092.5

19.5

93.5

0.4

13.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 8 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.2

138.2

16.6

2.47

3.37

1.93

61.3

33.2

6,429

27.3

59.9

11.1

40.2

43.5

30.0

35.2

1,374

19.8

930

3,027

1,306

1,365

39.6

1,349

698

687

1,257

20.7

33.8

2,314

1,366

1,572

1,920

1,471

1,210

45,000

1,861

81

358

294

286

309

367

105

154

288

249,590

9,506,840

102,352

156,703

80,266

76,437

116,856

19,250

213,045

6,971

514,524

3,728

1,957,643

1,361,479

83,556

512,608

1,998,515

7,533.0

11,455

41,106

4,239,450

4,050

241,665

2,890,572

3,480,696

20,084.0

19,406.0

678.0

25,754

34,801

1,000,936

97

19,541

3,779

2,898

640

7,600

16,200

66,832.1

6,343

444,766

4,115

21,814

18,110

400,727

2,052

14,355

6,400

3,888

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 9 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2000 2001 2002

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lb

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,762

5

840

12,997

99

458

88

10,648.7

98.9

29,000.0

7,658.0

53.0

54,500.0

2,599.8

967.2

219.0

23.9

703,000

22.5

209,850

243,000

239.0

1,231

2,469

2

1,000

12,390

95

369

56

9,560.4

81.2

6,471.9

125.0

2,537.3

915.5

155.0

23.2

850,000

48.0

318,300

200,000

280.0

1,049

2,505

1

954

12,527

104

414

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,010,100

30,656,080

1,781,850

263,050

1,349,640

537,430

4,148,880

24,126,400

16,623,860

1,177,650

6,324,900

604,610

236,740

18,530

624,440

1,500

76,080

29,989,550

1,073,640

6,389,160

6,283,620

105,540

554,870

6,430

578,670

85,710

81,340

512,780

6,800

31,690

24,650

449,650

39,620

16,604,840

5,580

1,735,720

27,845,910

2,488,030

24,222,320

9,636,480

16,065,790

770,930

234,720

1,341,140

103,200

3,473,860

135,980

19,689,380

12,664,770

1,128,680

5,895,930

588,820

233,910

17,890

566,770

1,250

71,630

29,542,370

1,044,100

5,588,770

5,483,950

104,810

503,310

416,510

175,090

2,870

503,030

79,640

79,720

2,550

150

14,530

31,770

502,340

5,670

30,840

23,710

442,120

7,890

37,840

180

5,460

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 11 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.13

8.67

37.32

5.53

7.56

4.32

2.20

1.86

7.21

1.72

3.76

24.87

2.71

2.93

2.01

2.37

1.54

1.24

1.04

3.39

1.46

1.53

2.66

1.51

0.78

0.77

1.41

46.42

75.80

2.59

1.53

1.76

2.15

1.65

1.35

50.44

2.09

0.09

40.16

32.94

32.09

34.64

41.11

0.12

17.21

32.28

5,434,180

241,484,860

92,852,170

142,158,570

72,816,090

69,342,480

1,696,160

436,580

9,663,560

177,070

13,069,510

3,381,980

53,278,310

37,053,390

2,274,020

13,950,900

906,510

6,833,820

290,970

18,650

1,922,980

1,840

109,620

78,668,480

1,578,820

4,372,780

4,225,160

147,620

23,363,640

31,570,940

454,020

4,400

886,360

171,410

131,450

29,030

3,450

7,350

30,310

2,880

20,174,250

186,650

989,470

821,460

18,176,670

930

651,130

2,900

176,360

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 12 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2000 2001 2002

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,505,640

4,540

762,040

11,790,680

89,810

415,490

79,830

4,830,170

89,720

13,150

6,947,190

48,080

24,720

1,179,250

877,380

198,670

21,680

318,880

20,410

95,190

110,220

216,820

6,150

2,239,840

1,810

907,180

11,240,020

86,180

334,750

50,800

4,336,520

73,660

5,871,210

113,400

1,150,900

830,530

140,610

21,050

385,550

43,540

144,380

90,720

254,010

5,240

2,272,500

910

865,450

11,364,300

94,350

375,570

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 13 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 14 NASS, USDA

December Weather Summary

Near-record to record warmth carried over from November into the first 3 weeks of December, followed by

the first large-scale cold outbreak of the season. Meanwhile, several precipitation anomalies from late

November were repeated in early- to mid-December. These included unfavorably dry weather in the East,

torrential rainfall from the western Gulf Coast region to the lower Ohio Valley, and drought-easing

precipitation in northern California and the Northwest.

Dry weather in the East, which was particularly severe in the southern Atlantic Coast Plain, further stressed

pastures and winter grains. In sharp contrast, lowland flooding, standing water, and submerged winter wheat

fields were concerns from eastern Texas to the lower Ohio Valley. Portions of the Delta netted more than 20

inches of rain in less than 4 weeks. However, little precipitation was observed on the Plains, keeping winter

wheat’s protective snow cover at a minimum and leaving the northern High Plains and much of the southern

half of the region in need of moisture. In the Southwest, a drying trend during the second half of the year

began to raise concerns about water supplies in 2002, but additional improvement was noted in much of

California and the Northwest, where drought developed during the spring of 2000.

Despite colder weather during the last week of December, monthly temperatures were above normal at nearly

all locations east of the Rockies and averaged at least 10 degrees F above normal in portions of Minnesota and

Wisconsin. Temperatures were within a few degrees of normal across most of the West, although some

readings in some interior valley locations averaged as much as 6 degrees F below normal, in part due to a

substantial snow cover.

December Crop Summary

Above-normal temperatures prevailed across most of the Nation during December, stimulating vegetative

growth of winter crops and forages in the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. 

Many winter wheat fields in the Corn Belt and central Great Plains remained green until after midmonth,

although vegetative growth was slow due to sub-freezing nighttime temperatures.

The abnormally warm weather also delayed the onset of freezing soil temperatures and extended the period

for winter wheat root development. Parts of the central and northern Great Plains received light snowfall, but

the warm weather pattern prevented accumulation of an adequate protective cover. As a result, most winter

wheat fields were exposed to wind-blown soil and remained vulnerable to an outbreak of bitter-cold

temperatures.

Several storms struck the Pacific Northwest during December, producing heavy rainfall that boosted

reservoirs and benefited development of winter crops in low-lying coastal areas as far south as central

California. The wet weather also hampered field and orchard activities in California’s central and northern

valleys.

As the storms tracked inland, they produced abundant snow accumulations in the coastal and interior

mountain ranges, increasing irrigation water reserves for the 2002 summer crops. However, the systems

produced very little precipitation as they crossed the Great Plains. Consequently, moisture shortages

increased in most areas of the Great Plains and limited the winter wheat crop’s response to the favorable

temperatures. 

The storm systems reorganized over the western Gulf Coast, accessed moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and

moved across the interior Mississippi Delta and into the Ohio Valley. Many winter wheat fields in the lower

Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the southern Great Plains, Southeast, and southern Corn Belt were

stressed by the unfavorably wet weather that saturated soils and flooded low-lying areas along rivers and

streams. Farther to the north and east, widespread precipitation near midmonth maintained soil moisture

supplies in the central and eastern Corn Belt, and supported development of the soft red winter wheat crop. 

A few light showers provided much-needed moisture for winter grains and forages along the eastern Gulf

Coast and Atlantic Coastal Plain, but soils remained unfavorably dry. In Florida, warm, dry weather

hastened ripening of fruits and vegetables, aided the sugarcane harvest, and supported other field and orchard

activities.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 15 NASS, USDA

Winter Potatoes: Winter potato production for 2002 is forecast at 3.89 million cwt, down 6 percent from

2001 and 22 percent below 2000. Acreage for harvest in the two winter potato States (California and Florida)

is estimated at 13,500 acres, down 4 percent from 2001 while the average forecast yield of 288 cwt per acre is

down 6 cwt from a year ago. California’s acreage for harvest is off 22 percent from a year ago, but crop

progress is normal. Florida’s acreage for harvest is up 30 percent from the previous season as a result of flood

reduced acreage in 2001. Planting this season was interrupted in late October and November by the effects of

Hurricane Michelle and some fields had to be replanted.

Spring Potatoes: Revised 2001 spring potato production of 21.8 million cwt, is up 12 percent from the

May 1 forecast but down less than 1 percent from last year. Harvested area totaled 76,200 acres, up 1 percent

from 2000, while the average yield of 286 cwt per acre decreased 4 cwt from 2000. 

Boosted by heavy shipments, final Florida estimates are 34 percent above the May forecast and 26 percent

above last year. North Carolina’s production increased 3 percent from 2000. Spring potatoes in Arizona are

12 percent below a year ago and California’s spring crop declined 19 percent, while the Texas crop is down

7 percent.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.58 million pounds for December, 13 percent

lower than last month and 24 percent less than December 2000. Area in crop totaled 2,575 acres, 5 percent

less than last month and 4 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, at 1,835 acres, was 5 percent lower

than last month and 2 percent less than a year ago.

Weather during December was variable. Windy conditions during the beginning of December were followed

by a mid-month winter storm which brought heavy rains to papaya producing areas. Fungal diseases were

noticeable with the wetter weather. Drier conditions returned during the later part of the month.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2001-02 grapefruit crop for the United States is 2.51 million tons, down

1 percent from the December 1 forecast but 1 percent higher than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit

forecast is 47.0 million boxes (2.00 million tons), unchanged from the December 1 forecast but 2 percent

above last season. The all white grapefruit forecast continues at 19.0 million boxes (808,000 tons). The

colored seedless utilization is forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.19 million tons), the same as the December 1

forecast, but 3 percent more than the previous season. Loss from droppage is average, but fruit size is smaller

than all of the previous 10 seasons except 1992. 

The Texas grapefruit forecast is 7.30 million boxes (292,000 tons), 6 percent less than the October 1 forecast

but 1 percent higher than last season’s final utilization. Harvest began late this season. Fruit size and quality

are better than last season. The California grapefruit forecast increased to 6.20 million boxes (208,000 tons),

3 percent more than the previous forecast but 5 percent below the final 2000-01 utilization. Harvesting is

active in the desert areas and quality is very good. Arizona’s grapefruit forecast remains at 200,000 boxes

(6,700 tons), 20 percent less than last season. The harvest is just getting underway. Fruit size is average and

good quality is evident.

Lemons: The 2001-02 lemon forecast for the United States is 954,000 tons, down 4 percent from the initial

October forecast. If realized, it will be down 5 percent from last season. California production is forecast at

22.0 million boxes (836,000 tons), down 4 percent from October and 3 percent less than the previous season. 

Harvest is active in all three producing areas of California. Overall, quality is very good. The Arizona lemon

crop is forecast at 3.10 million boxes (118,000 tons), the same as the October forecast but down 14 percent

from last season. A lighter fruit set is evident and fruit size is larger than last season. The crop is in good

condition.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2001-02 tangelo forecast is held at 2.30 million boxes (104,000 tons), 10 percent more

than last season’s utilized production. More than a third of the crop has been utilized as of the end of

December.

Tangerines: The 2001-02 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 414,000 tons, down 2 percent from the

December 1 forecast but 12 percent higher than last season’s utilization of 369,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine

forecast remains at 6.40 million boxes (304,000 tons) and is 14 percent higher than last season. Harvest is

virtually complete on the early season tangerines. The later season Honey tangerines are larger on average
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 16 NASS, USDA

than in any of the previous 10 seasons. Loss from droppage is projected to be average. California’s forecast

of tangerine production is 2.30 million boxes (86,000 tons), down 8 percent from the October forecast but

10 percent above last season. Fruit size is larger than average and quality is very good. The Satsuma harvest

is wrapping up and the harvests of Minneolas and Fairchilds are active. The Arizona forecast of tangerine

production is 650,000 boxes (24,000 tons), 8 percent higher than the October forecast but the same as last

season. Fruit size is small and quality is average. Harvest is less than 50 percent complete.

Temples: Florida’s 2001-02 Temple forecast is continued at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), unchanged

from December. If realized, it will be the second smallest crop ever recorded, but 12 percent higher than the

record low 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons) utilized last season. Average fruit size is the smallest in the

10-season series. Loss from droppage is slightly below the average.

K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2001-02 is 30,000 boxes (1,350 tons), unchanged

from December and 10,000 boxes fewer than last season. If realized, this will be the smallest crop of record.

Florida Citrus: Florida’s citrus belt was very dry during December. Rain is needed in all areas. Growers 

irrigated to maintain good tree and fruit condition. Temperatures during the first half of the month were

above normal, but during the last ten days of December seasonally cooler temperatures prevailed. The early

and midseason fruit are coloring well on the trees. Harvesting crews have been moving large quantities of

early and midseason oranges to the processors. Fresh fruit packers worked long hours through the weekend

before Christmas to meet holiday demand.

Caretakers were mowing, chopping, and discing cover crops prior to harvest and for fire protection. Growers

continue to push and burn dead trees. Due to the unseasonably warm temperatures through mid-December,

there have been some cleanup sprays applied to a few of the mid and late season fresh crops. A few young

tree groves in the northern part of the citrus belt have been banked for cold protection. Heaters have been

fueled and placed in some of the coldest locations.

Texas Citrus: Harvest started late this season for grapefruit but on schedule for oranges. Fruit quality and

size are better than last year. Cold temperatures which occurred the first few days of January did not last long

enough to damage any fruit. Some growers are still concerned about rust mite populations.

California Citrus: Picking of navel oranges continued throughout December and approximately 20 percent

of the crop was harvested by month's end. Cool evening temperatures during late December enhanced fruit

color. Pummelo and Oroblanco grapefruit harvests were active in the desert and very good quality was

evident. Picking of lemons was active in the desert, central valley, and south coast areas. Quality is very

good. Harvest of Satsuma, Minneola, and Fairchild tangerines was active during December. Fruit size is

larger than average and quality is very good.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating,

and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Some older variety trees and vines have been

removed in preparation for planting replacements. Harvest of table grapes was nearly complete by

mid-December. Persimmons and pomegranates were picked. Walnuts were delivered to drying facilities. A

few pecans were harvested in the San Joaquin Valley.

Hay Stocks on Farm: Stocks of all hay on farms December 1, 2001 totaled 111 million tons, 5 percent

above the stocks on farms December 1, 2000. The 20 States with increases in hay stocks more than offset

stocks decreases in 27 States. Increases in hay stocks in the Gulf Coast, central Great Plains and southern

Corn Belt States in 2001 can be attributed to increases in hay production. The increases in stocks from these

States ranged from 5 percent in Texas to 164 percent in Louisiana.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 17 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The objective yield survey for oranges for the January 1 forecast was conducted in

Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing

trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and

fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and

Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September’s Citrus

Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season,

including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for

recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 8.2 percent. However, if you

exclude the six freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 4.4 percent. This means that chances are

two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by

more than 8.2 percent, or 4.4 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 14.1 percent, or 7.8 percent excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

509,000 tons (366,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 33,000 tons to 1.89 million tons (33,000 tons to

739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate

5 times and above 15 times (below 4 times and above 10 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference

does not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2002 18 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye, Hay, Sorghum (202) 720-8068

Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops,

Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Nuts, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Fresh Vegetables, Mushrooms (202) 720-3250

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288

Jim Smith - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Peas (202) 720-2127

Darin Jantzi - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 8, 2002.

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