Other Spring Wheat: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1990-92

Area Planted : Area Harvested
1990 1991 1/ 1992 1990 1991 1/ ; 1992
1,000 Acres
co: 42 38 50 40 36 47
ID : 460 470 670 450 460 640
MN : 2,800 2,100 2,800 2,750 2,070 2,750
MT : 2,800 2,600 2,650 2,450 2,400 2,450
NV : 9 5 6 8 4 5
ND : 8,000 7,000 9,200 7,700 6,850 9,100
OR : 60 50 110 58 46 100
sD: = 2,200 1,800 2,700 2,100 1,750 2,500
UT : 30 25 25 26 23 22
WA : 300 1,500 450 280 1,450 420
WI : 10 9 22 7 7 21
WY : 12 7 15 6 4 10
US : 15,604 18,698 15,875 15,100 18,065
Yield Production
-- 1,000 Bushels
co 2,800 2,700 3,619
ID 30,600 32,660 48,000
MN 134,750 64,170 137,500
MT 53,900 81,600 73,500
NV 560 300 375
ND 277,200 212,350 382,200
OR 3,016 2,300 4,900
SD 67,200 49,000 85,000
UT 1,170 1,127 1,056
WA 11,480 58,000 17,640
WI 280 238 840
wy 168 120 470
US 583,124 504,565 755,100
1/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-20 NASS, USDA



Tobacco by States: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Production

Area Harvested

1991 : 1992 : 1991

--- Pounds --
cT : 1,750 1,500 1,618 1,601 3,007 2,831 2,401
FL : 6,600 7,600 2,320 2,675 19,044 15,312 20,330
GA : 40,000 43,000 2,015 2,200 103,845 80,600 94,600
IN : 8,800 9,000 2,150 2,150 15,050 18,920 19,350
KY : 223,100 231,000 2,151 2,272 442,253 479,794 524,775
MD : 8,600 10,000 1,500 1,400 9,656 12,900 14,000
MA : 480 390 1,615 1,574 805 775 614
MO : 3,000 1,500 2,275 1,550 5,928 6,825 2,325
NC : 275,000 276,200 2,308 2,192 639,639 634,655 605,550
OH : 10,400 10,800 2,190 2,140 18,915 22,776 23,112
PA : 10,500 10,800 1,978 1,980 19,780 20,765 21,380
sc : 51,000 52,000 2,180 2,100 109,905 111,180 109,200
TMN : 61,730 67,180 1,969 2,024 112,218 121,524 135,988
VA : 53,500 51,200 2,184 2,146 110,269 116,849 109,890
we : 1,900 2,000 1,800 1,800 2,720 3,420 3,600
WI : 7,400 7,400 1,938 1,941 13,346 14,338 14,360
us : 763,760 781,570 2,178 2,177 1,626,380 1,663,464 1,701,475
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-41 NASS, USDA


Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992 1/

Area Harvested Yield : Production
State Jere coronene ---- 7 - $= --- oo oe == ---- == === - 5 === =

1991 1992 1991 : 1992 : 1990 1991

- 1,000 Acres - ~-- Pounds ---  ------ 1,000 Cwt -------
CA : 144.0 120.0 2,172 2,100 3,058 3,127 2,520
co : 170.0 150.0 1,950 1,800 4,275 3,315 2,700
ID > 143.0 83.0 2,050 1,950 3,560 2,932 1,619
KS 2/ : 32.0 19.0 1,700 1,750 665 544 333
MI : 345.0 310.0 1,800 1,200 5,445 6,210 3,720
MN : 120.0 86.0 1,650 1,500 1,768 1,980 1,290
MT 2/ : 8.3 8.0 1,900 2,150 220 158 172
NE : 211.0 155.0 1,900 1,650 5,004 4,009 2,558
NM 2/ : 16.0 14.0 2,000 1,900 231 320 266
NY : 35.0 34.0 1,380 1,050 672 483 357
ND > 510.0 415.0 1,480 1,150 5,005 7,548 4,773
OR 2/ : 7.0 6.0 2,100 2,100 180 147 126
TX 2/ : 14.0 33.0 1,120 1,380 221 157 455
UT 2/ : 5.5 5.5 480 500 13 26 28
WA 50.0 36.0 2,000 1,950 912 1,000 702
WI o2/ 10.9 8.5 1,900 1,850 185 207 157
WY 41.0 32.0 1,950 1,900 965 800 608
US : 1,862.7 1,515.0 1,770 1,477 32,379 = 32,963 22,384

1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed.
2/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-37 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit: Utilized Production by Crop, State and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992 1/

Utilized Production : Utilized Production
Crop : Boxes 3 Ton Equivalent
an prec nce crane nanan nnn en enone nn tenner nnn neon enone
State : 1990-91 : 1991-92 ; 1992-93 : 1990-91: 1991-92: 1992-93

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/
AZ : 550 780 700 20 29 26
CA : 15,800 35,100 38,000 593. 1,317 ~—-1, 425
FL : 87,500 83,400 114,000 3,937 3,753 5,130
TX 4/ : 20 400 1 17
US : 103,850 119,300 153,100 4,550 5,100 6,598
Valencia :
Z : 1,200 1,600 1,200 45 60 45
CA : 9,800 31,000 30,000 368 = 1,163 1,125
FL : 64,100 56,400 72,000 2,885 2,538 3,240
TX 4/ 5/ : 19 50 2
ats : 75,100 89,010 103,250 3,298 3,761 4,412
AZ : 1,750 2,380 1,900 65 89 71
CA : 25,600 66,100 68,000 961 2,480 2,550
FL : 151,600 139,800 186,000 6,822 6,291 98,370
TX 4/ : 30 450 1 19
US : 178,950 208,310 256,350 7,848 8,861 11,010
Temples :
F 2,500 2,350 2,700 113 106 122
Grapefruit
White Seedless 2
FL 3 21,700 19,100 25,000 922 812 1,063
Colored Seedless +:
FL 21,800 22,100 27,000 927 940 1,148
Other
at 1,600 1,200 2,000 68 51 85
AZ : 2,400 2,800 2,200 17 389 70
CA 6/ :
Desert : 3,500 3,500 3,500 112 112 112
Other Areas : 4,500 6,500 150 217
Total : 8,000 10,000 262 329
FL : 45,100 42,400 54,000 1,917 1,803 2,296
TX 4/ : 65 1,200 3 48
US : 55,500 55,265 2,256 2,224
Tangerines :
AZ : 600 1,200 950 23 45 36
CA 2 1,350 2,400 2,500 51 90 94
FL : 1,950 2,600 2,600 92 123 124
US 2 3,900 6,200 6,050 166 258 254
Lemons :
AZ : 4,100 5,100 5,700 156 194 217
CA : 14,800 15,100 17,000 563 574 646
us : 18,900 20,200 22,700 719 768 863
Tangelos :
FL 2,650 2,600 3,300 119 117 149

K-Early Citrus
FL

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-46 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Planted and Harvested, by State
and United States, 1990-92

Area Planted 1/ Area Harvested

State :-----~---------~------------~------------~------------------------------
1990 1991 2/ : 1992 1990 : 1991 2/ : 1992
1,000 Acres
AZ $ V7 22 24 15 20 21
CA : 300 240 230 230 160 180
co ¢ 155 140 130 150 130 120
DE : 30 40 40 27 37 35
ID : 790 800 740 780 790 720
KS : 25 30 20 21 23 17
KY : 19 25 20 17 22 18
MD : 70 85 70 63 78 64
MI : 45 35 30 43 33 28
MN : 850 900 700 800 875 675
MT : 1,600 1,800 1,350 1,380 1,650 1,200
NE : 25 30 35 22 27 30
NV : 12 8 7 9 4 5
Nd : 8 ll 9 6 8 7
NC : 35 40 35 30 35 30
ND : 2,600 2,900 2,700 2,450 2,830 2,650
OK : 20 15 12 17 10 9
OR : 145 190 170 130 175 150
PA : 65 75 95 60 70 90
sc : 15 10 10 13 9 9
so : 550 500 420 500 460 380
TX : 30 30 20 16 10 6
UT 3 115 105 125 105 95 115
VA : 100 105 110 80 85 90
WA : 400 580 450 390 570 440
WI H 70 85 100 50 72 80
WY 130 140 150 125 135 140
US 8,221 8,941 7,802 7,529 8,413 7,309
1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall.
2/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-14 NASS, USDA



Report Features

The next "Crop Production” report will be released on November 10, 1992 at

3:00 p.m. ET.

_ Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National

Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Herb Eldridge - Sugar, Tobacco, Hay (202) 720-7621
Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-9526
Martin Owens - Rice, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-2157
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068
Charles Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Steve Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Jim Brewster - Fruits (202) 720-7688
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285
Kirby Cavett - Peanuts (202) 720-8843
Kevin Hintzman - Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 720-5412
Roger Latham - Cotton (202) 720-5944
Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-3843
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-24 NASS, USDA



September Weather Summary: Although frosty airmasses grazed the northern Corn

Belt at regular intervals, most of the Midwest
escaped September without freeze damage. However, a late-month freeze in the
Dakotas and the upper Mississippi Valley (MN, Wi, northern IA) locally
affected crop conditions. Elsewhere, weather headlines were generated by
compact, intense systems such as Hurricane "Iniki" in Hawaii (September 11)
and a thunderstorm complex over south-central Iowa (September 14-15).

Temperatures remained cool in many areas east of the Rockies, continuing a
trend that developed this spring. Departures reached -3°F in parts of the
Midwest. But those early autumn conditions paled next to interior Alaska's
wintery weather. Bitter cold and snow arrived during the second week of
September, freezing summer in its tracks. Fairbanks had its coldest September
on record (average temperature of 31.7°F), more than 6°F colder than the
previous mark set in 1908. More than 2 feet of snow fell (another September
record), and the mercury failed to top 40°F during the last 20 days of the
month. In sharp contrast, temperatures averaged mostly above normal in the
Western Contiguous States. The monthly average temperature of 92°F in
Phoenix, AZ, was 5°F above normal.

Significant precipitation in the West was primarily confined to the Cascades
and the Rockies. At lower elevations, cold fronts produced gusty winds and
raised dust. Wildfires returned to California late in the month during a
spell of breezy, dry weather. But adequate to surplus moisture fell on the
eastern half of the Nation. In the southeastern Plains, slow-moving fronts
dropped up to twice the normal rainfall. Southeastern Oklahoma endured up to
17 inches. But local areas of south-central Iowa received nearly that much
rain in less than 24 hours on the night of September 14-15. Thayer, IA,
reported an unofficial total of 16 inches. Heavy rain redeveloped over
southeastern Minnesota and central Wisconsin during the next evening,
resulting in totals of up to 12 inches.

Three tropical systems affected the United States during September. On
September 11, Hurricane "Iniki" devastated Kauai Island, HI, with 130 miles
per hour (mph) sustained winds. Kauai endured severe damage to crops and
infrastructure. The other storms, tropical storm "Danielle" and a tropical
depression, left their mark through beach erosion. "Danielle" made landfall
in southeastern Virginia on September 25, churning the Atlantic Ocean north of
its center. And the depression, which later became tropical storm "Earl,"
caused coastal flooding and beach erosion in northeastern Florida late in the
month.

Winter Wheat Plantings: Seeding of the 1993 winter wheat crop was underway in

several States by September 1. Planting progressed
slightly ahead of average throughout the month in the major producing States,
reaching 47 percent completion by September 27, 3 points ahead of the 5-year
average. Favorable planting weather existed in the central and northern Great
Plains most of the month.

September Crop Progress: (Cool weather continued across the eastern half of
the Nation, hampering crop development. Near normal

temperatures at mid-month over the Corn Belt improved crop prospects slightly

in that area. Rainfall from the Great Plains eastward throughout ‘September

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-6 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
yx (SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

gy October 3, 1992

Pavonasiy
SESS nouson JOU AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY 9. sonsery 13.

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-4 NASS, USDA


Soybean Revisions - 1991: The 1991 soybean production was revised to

1.99 billion bushels, up fractionally from the
previous 1991 estimate. Yield is now 34.2 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel
from the unrevised number. Harvested area, at 58.0 million acres, is up
slightly from the preliminary 1991 estimate.

Revisions were made based upon availability of additional data in some States,
end of marketing year stock estimates, and disappearance data for exports and
crushings.

Sunflower: Production is forecast at 2.92 billion pounds in 1992, 19 percent

below 1991 but 28 percent above the 1990 crop. Harvested area,
unchanged from June 1992, is estimated at 2.06 million acres, 23 percent below
the revised 1991 estimate.

The North Dakota sunflower crop lagged wel] behind normal al] season due to
cool weather. However, as of September 27, the crop was rated in mostly good
condition.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.42 billion pounds, down 2 percent from

the September 1 forecast and down 10 percent from last year's record
high crop. Continued cool, wet September weather reduced expectations in the
Southeast and the Virginia-North Carolina areas, while the Southwestern area
declined due to drying conditions. Harvested area remains unchanged from last
month and is estimated at 1.75 million acres, 13 percent below last year.
Yields are expected to average 2,526 pounds per harvested acre, down 62 pounds
from last month but 82 pounds above 1991.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.79 billion pounds. This level represents a
1 percent decrease from last month and a 12 percent decrease from 1991. Yield
for the 4-State area is expected to average 2,648 pounds per acre, 209 pounds
more than last year. Excessive moisture in Florida and dry conditions in
South Carolina account for the changes in crop expectations. As of September
27, peanut harvest was 35 percent complete compared with 50 percent normally.
Florida's harvest was also delayed by wet weather. In Alabama, delays were
less severe due to drier weather with 53 percent dug and 39 percent combined.
South Carolina's harvest was near normal at 21 percent complete by the end of
September.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 686 million pounds, down

4 percent from last month and down 11 percent from last year. Yield per
harvested acre, at 2,700 pounds, is 280 pounds per acre below last year's
average. Disease pressure continued through September as relatively cool, wet
conditions persisted across the region. Producers began digging as early as
possible to avoid loss of quality and yield. Generally, the crop remains two
weeks behind normal.

The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected
to total 938 million pounds, down 5 percent from last month and down 4 percent
from 1991. Yields are expected to average 2,132 pounds per acre, 22 pounds
below last year's level. Texas peanut crop prospects were reduced by drier
weather during September. The Texas production remains the second largest on

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-10 NASS, USDA


Austrian Winter Peas: The Austrian winter pea crop of 99,000 cwt dropped

29 percent from last year and 22 percent below 1990.
Acreage harvested, at 8,700 acres, was down 24 percent. The average yield per
acre, at 1,138 pounds was off 71 pounds. More acres than usual were abandoned
because of drought conditions.

Winter Potatoes, Revised: The final 1992 production of winter potatoes is

estimated at 3.00 million cwt, up 15 percent from
last year. Acreage totaled 13,400 acres, up 10 percent and the average yield
of 224 cwt per acre increased 10 cwt over a year earlier.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on

October 1, for the 48 contiguous States,
was 82 percent of normal, up 5 points from October 1, 1991, and 8 points above
the 1981-90 average for the date. Conditions were better than last year in
35 States and below last year in 13 States.

Nevada was the only State reporting pasture and range condition in the extreme
drought range. Idaho and Oregon conditions were reported in the severe
drought range. California pasture and ranges were in the very poor range.

The balance of the country reported either poor to fair conditions or good to
excellent with most States in the good to excellent range.

Tobacco: U.S. alt tobacco production for 1992 is forecast at 1.70 billion
pounds, fractionally above the September 1 forecast and 2 percent

above last year's production. Area expected to be harvested totals

781,570 acres, 2 percent more than a year ago. Yield is forecast at

2,177 pounds per acre, down 1 pound from 1991.

Flue-cured production is expected to reach 893 million pounds, down 2 percent
from a year ago. Harvest in North Carolina has been delayed by wet weather.

Burley output is expected to total 711 million pounds, up 8 percent from a
year ago. The increased production level reflects a 4 percent increase in
harvested acres and the average yield is showing an 86 pound improvement from
last year. Farmers in Kentucky and Tennessee are actively harvesting their
crop and reporting good weight. Houseburn has been a problem and causing
farmers to put fire under some barns. Stripping has begun in some areas.

Sugarbeets: The October 1 sugarbeet production forecast of 29.8 million tons
is 2 percent above the September 1 forecast and 6 percent above

last year's output. Yield is expected to average 21.0 tons per acre, up

0.8 ton from last year.

Production in the Red River Valley area is expected to be 8 percent above a
year ago. Idaho growers, with 17 percent of the U.S. total this year, are
expected to see a 1 percent drop in production.

Some early harvesting has begun in major producing areas.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-14 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: All wheat production for 1992 was estimated at 2.46 billion

bushels, up 2 percent from September 1 and up 24 percent from
1991. Yields averaged 39.4 bushels per acre, equaling the second highest
average on record. The estimated yield was up 1.2 from September 1 and was
5.1 bushels per acre better than last year. Area harvested for grain was
62.4 million acres, off 1 percent from the last forecast, but 8 percent above
a year ago.

U.S. ALL WHEAT PRODUCTION
1983-1992

BILLION BUSHELS

$.00 _ 2.74
260\ 242 2.42 WN 2.48
209 21 2.04 1.98
2.00 1.81
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00 N
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 B-2 NASS, USDA


Rye: Yield and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-92

Yield Production

1991 1/ 1991 1/

-- Bushels

co : 28.0 26.0 78 50
GA : 22.0 20.0 1,300 1,560
IL : 33.0 27.0 162 280
IN : 31.0 25.0 100 156
KS : 26.0 23.0 115 130
MD 30.0 32.0 224 185
MI 29.0 20.0 360 496
MN 31.0 27.0 648 720
NE 25.0 20.0 1,000 1,040
NJ 24.0 32.0 192 259
NY 26.0 33.0 264 288
NC 23.0 25.0 500 360
ND 30.0 31.0 992 1,496
OH 35.0 31.0 155 175
OK 21.0 19.0 665 798
PA 31.0 27.0 297 720
sc 22.0 21.0 630 675
sd 34.0 36.0 1,152 1,666
TX 14.0 19.0 228 280
VA 32.0 33.0 264 288
WI 31.0 29.0 435 330
US 27.1 24.6 9,761 11,952
1/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-24 NASS, USDA



Tobacco by Class and Type: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Area Harvested Yield Production
Class and Type = :-----------------------------+------~------------------~

1991: 1992 1991 : 1992 199] 1992

~-- Acres ---- --- Pounds --- - 1,000 Pounds --

Class 1, Flue-Cured
Wa 11, Old and

fiddle’ Belts +
: 104,000 102,000 2,275 2,150 236,600 219,300

VA : 39,000 37,000 2,260 2,200 88,140 81,400

iS : 143,000 139,000 2,271 2,163 324,740 300,700
Type 12, Eastern NC:

‘e

NC : 129,000 131,000 2,345 2,250 302,505 294,750
Type 13, NC Border & :
SC Belt

NC : 33,000 34,000 2,350

2,150 77,550 73,100

sc : 51,000 52,000 2,180 2,100 111,180 109,200

US : 84,000 86,000 2,247 2,120 = 188,730 = 182,300
Type 14, GA-FL Belt :

L : 6,600 7,600 2,320 2,675 15,312 20,330

GA $ 40/000 433000 2;015  2;200 80,600 947600

US : 46,600 50,600 2,058 2,271 95,912 114,930

Total 11-14 : 402,600 406,600 2,265 2,195 911,887 892,680

Class 2, Fire-Cured
Type ai, VA Belt
2,500 1,800 1,425 1,400 3,563 2,520
‘Bee 22, Eastern
istrict
: 3,250 3,600 2,080 2,200 6,760 7,920
i : 6,600 7,000 2,100 2,200 13,860 15,400
: 9,850 10,600 2,093 23200 20,620 23,320
"Re 23, Western
istrict :
: 3,150 3,400 2,400 2,300 7,560 7,820
iN : 520 550 2,200 2,300 1,144 1,265

US : 3,670 3,950 25372 2300 83704 93085
Total 21-23 > 16,020 16,350 2,053 2,136 32,887 343925

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-Cured
Type 31, Burley

: 8,800 9,000 2,150 2,150 18,920 19,350
KY : 2133000 220,000 2,150 2,275 457,950 500,500
MO : | 32000 1,500 2,275 1,550 3825 2,325
NC : 9,000 9,200 2,000 2,000 18,000 18,400
OH : 10, 7400 10,800 2,190 2,140 22,776 23,112
TN : 547000 59,000 1,950 2,000 105,300 118,000
VA : 113900 125300 2,100 2,100 24990 25,830
Ww : 1,900 2,000 13800 1,800 3,420 3,600

US : 312;000 323,800 2,110 2,196 658,181 711,117
Type 32, Southern MD :
e

: 8,600 10,000 1,500 1,400 12,900 14,000

PA : _3,800 3,800 1,850 1,850 7,030 7,030
US : 12,400 13,800 1,607 1,524 19,930 21,030
Total 31-32 : 324,400 337,600 2,090 23169 678,111 7323147
-- continued

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-42 NASS, USDA


Index

Page

Table Narrative
Barley - Annual........ 0... cece cece eee eee eee e eee neee A-14 B-1
Oats - Annual... A-12 B-1
Rye - Annual.. A-23 B-3
US Summary - Annual. A- 2
Wheat, All - Annual.... A-16 B-2
Wheat, By Class - Annual A-21
Wheat, Durum - Annual....... A-21 B-3
Wheat, Other Spring - Annual . A-20 B-3
Wheat, Winter - Annual]........... 0. cece cece cece eens eeeees A-18 B-3
APPl@S. 2... cece cee cee e ence eee e eee eee eeeeneeaaee A-48 B-18
Beans, Dry Edible A-37 B-13
Citrus Fruit..... A-46 B-16
Corn for Grain A-26 B- 8
Cotton........ A-33 B-11
Cottonseed......... A-32 B-12
Crop Moisture Maps. A- 2 B- 4
Grapes........... A-45 B-15
Hay, All... ccc cece cece eect eee e eee e eee A-34 B-13
Hay, Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay. A-35 B-13
Hay, Other........... Sec c cece cee ceeeeecces A-36 B-13
Hazelnuts.,... A-50 B-20
Index Numbers. A-25
Lentils....... A-38 B-13
Papayas......... ese eee eens A-50 B-20
Pasture and Range Feed Condi . A-40 B-14
Peanuts for Nuts............... A-32 B-10
Peas, Austrian Winter A-39 B-14
Peas, Dry Edible..... A-38 B-13
Pecans......... A-49 B-19
Potatoes........ A-39 B-14
Prunes and Plums.. A-45 B-16
Reliability Stateme B-21 B-21
Rice... .... cece eee eee A-28 B- 9
Sorghum for Grain. . A-27 B- 8
Soybeans for Beans. A-29 B- 9
Sugarbeets..............0006 A-44 B-14
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed A-44 B-15
Sunflower.........seeceeeeee A-31 B-10
Tobacco by Class and Type. A-42 B-14
Tobacco by States.. : A-41 B-14
US Summary. ....... cece eee e cece eeepc cee cence tere eneee A- 6
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-23 - NASS, USDA

LY


al

Small Grains - Annual Summary: Yield,
United States, 1990-92 (Metric Units)

Yield
CO) ere
1991 1/
Metric Tons
Oats 1.82 2.35
Barley 2.97 3.36
All Wheat 2.31 2.65
Winter 2.34 2.58
Durum 2.19 2.67
Other Spring 2.25 2.81
Rye 1.55 1.85
1/ Revised.
Small Grains - Annual Summary: Production,
United States, 1990-92 (Metric Units)
Production
1991 1/ 1992
Metric Tons
Oats : 5,189,450 3,533,680 4,276,170
Barley 3 9,192,230 10,109,510 9,935,800
All Wheat : 74,473,360 53,917,770 66,918,380
Winter : 55,271,330 37,356,510 43,722,690
Durum : 3,332,000 2,829,250 2,645,240
Other Spring : 15,870,030 13,732,010 20,550,450
Rye : 258,480 247,940 303,590
l/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-5 NASS, USDA




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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-25 NASS, USDA


Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

AZ: 170 140 7.70 7.70 1,304 1,309 1,078
AR 1/: 30 30 3.00 3.50 75 90 105
CA’: ~=1,050 960 6.70 6.50 6,996 7,035 6,240
co: 720 720 3.80 4.00 23590 23736 2,880
cT1/: 19 19 2.70 2.90 51 51 55
DE 1/ : 6 6 3.50 4.00 33 21 24
ID : 1,030 960 3.80 3.60 3,744 3,914 3,456
IL: 670 700 3.80 3.90 2,772 2,546 23730
IN: 375 330 3.00 4.00 1,560 1,125 1,320
IA: (1,500 1,450 3.70 3.30 6,375 5,550 45785
KS: 800 850 3.10 3.90 3,040 2,480 3,315
KY: 350 300 3.50 3.70 1,088 1,225 1,110
LA 1/ : 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/
ME 1/ : 21 23 2.00 2.00 53 42 46
MD 1/: 75 70 3.00 4.50 308 225 315
MA I/ : 29 29 2.60 2.60 81 75 vb
MI: «1,200 1,150 3.90 4.00 4,875 4,680 4,600
MN: «1,700 1,500 3.70 3.50 5,120 6,290 5,250
MO: 500 500 2.70 2.50 1,440 1,350 1,250
MT =: 1,500 1,400 2.50 2.50 3,375 3,750 3,500
NE: 1,450 1,500 3.30 3.80 4,785 4,785 5,700
Wo: 235 240 3.65 4.30 984 858 1,032
NH 1/ : 15 15 2.30 2.20 37 35 33
NOI: 28 29 3.10 3.00 78 87 87
NM: 260 260 4.90 5.00 1,250 1,274 1,300
NY 760 800 2.50 3.10 2,193 1,900 2,480
NC 1/ 40 30 3.00 2.80 a7 120 84
ND 1,400 1,200 1.65 1.40 1,540 2,310 1,680
OH 600 650 2.80 4.00 2,800 1,680 2,600
OK 400 380 3.30 3.60 1,376 1,320 1,368
oR: 425 435 4.20 4.10 1,806 1,785 1,784
PA: 780 800 2.60 3.50 25430 2,028 25800
RI: 2 2 2.40 2.75 6 5 6
SD”: 2,350 2,000 2.30 2.20 3,780 5,405 4,400
TN 1/: 80 70 3.50 3.40 252 280 238
KO: 100 100 4.50 4.00 400 450 400
ul: 490 490 4.00 4.10 1,843 1,960 2,009
Was: 105 105 2.30 2.45 252 242 57
VAI/: 130 140 3.40 3.90 560 442 546
WA: 480 480 4.50 4.60 2,256 2,160 2,208
Wo: 50 40 2.50 3.00 192 125 120
WI: 3,000 2,500 2.80 2.10 8,400 8,400 5,250
Woo: 660 660 2.50 2.40 1,368 1,650 1,584
US : 25,585 24,063 3.28 © 3.33 83,555 83,795 80,099

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Included in other hay.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-35 NASS, USDA


Durum Wheat: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-92

1,000 Acres
AZ: 45 40 45 44 39 44

CA 3 60 33 57 59 32 55

MN : 30 30 10 30 30 10

MT 3 245 180 160 235 179 157

ND : 3,100 2,900 2,200 3,050 2,850 2,150

SD : 90 70 35 89 67 33

us : 3,570 3,253 2,507 3,507 3,197 2,449
Yield Production

AZ: 94.0 95.0 85.

0 4,136 3,705 3,740
CA + 95.0 105.0 93.0 5,605 3,360 5,115
MN : 44.0 32.0 47.0 1,320 960 470
MT : 19.0 33.0 33.0 4,465 5,907 5,181
ND : 34.0 31.0 38.0 103,700 88,350 81,700
sD H 36.0 25.0 30.0 3,204 1,675 990
US : 34.9 32.5 39.7 122,430 103,957 97,196
1/ Revised.

1,000 Bushels

1990 : 1,198,782 547,126 284,966 554,678 122,430 28,446 2,736,428
1991 2/ : 901,781 325,201 145,635 431,223 103,957 73,342 1,981,139

1992 : 966,078 427,139 213,317 701,994 97,196 53,106 2,458,830

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on the latest varietal acreage survey data
available.

2/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-21 NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Area Harvested : Production

State :

1991

1992: 199] jo--ee-=-==-=- === == : 1991 1992

: ~ 1,000 Acres -

--- 1,000 Bushels --
ALL/ : 23 21.55.

0 51.0 51.0 1,265 1,071
AR : 270 380 57.0 75.0 73.0 15,390 27,740
co : 270 190 40.0 41.0 43.0 10,800 8,170
GAl/ : 50 50 50.0 50.0 50.0 2,500 2,500
IL 2 173 260 80.0 93.0 93.0 13,840 24,180
KS : 3,150 3,100 56.0 75.0 77.0 176,400 238,700
KY l/s: 28 18 73.0 86.0 86.0 2,044 1,548
LA : 184 215 $5.0 65.0 65.0 10,120 13,975
MS : 70 145 62.0 68.0 68.0 4,340 9,860
MO : 520 750 72.0 88.0 91.0 37,440 68,250
NE : 1,300 1,500 66.0 82.0 82.0 85,800 123,000
NM : 170 180 60.0 60.0 60.0 10,200 10,800
NC 1/ 25 20 50.0 50.0 50.0 1,250 1,000
OK : 300 330 45.0 50.0 52.0 13,500 17,160
scl/: 12 10 38.0 40.0 40.0 456 400
sD : 310 380 42.0 64.0 58.0 13,020 22,040
IN1/ : 65 70 65.0 80.0 80.0 4,225 5,600
1X 2,900 4,700 61.0 59.0 59.0 176,900 277,300
US 9,820 12,319 59.0 68.7 69.3 579,490 853,294

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-27 NASS, USDA


Rye: Area Planted and Harvested, by State
and United States, 1990-92

Area Planted 1/

1991 2/

1992

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres

1990
co 15
GA 300
IL 45
IN 30
KS 35
MD 45
MI 135
MN 55
NE 110
NJ 50
NY 60
NC 100
ND 35
OH 40
OK 95
PA 60
sc 60
so 60
TX 100
VA 110
WI 85
US 1,625

1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall.

2/ Revised.

Crop Production

October 1992

10
300
45
25
50
30
110
30
110
50
52
90
45
40
130
70
60
55

1990 1991 2/ 1992
3 3 2
60 65 65
5 6 8
4 4 6
5 5 5
7 7 5
20 18 16
28 24 24
30 50 40
6 6 7
10 8 9
15 20 15
26 32 34
5 5 5
20 35 38
16 11 20
27 30 25
55 32 49
10 12 14
8 8 8
15 15 11
375 396 406

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Area Harvested : i : Production

720
708 1,020

63,265 69,690

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-36 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Area Planted and Harvested,
by State and United States, 1990-92

At 280 170 140 190 110 95

AZ : 55 30 45 54 29 44
AR : 1,500 1,100 950 1,400 930 850
CA : 620 450 600 560 410 550
co : 2,700 2,600 2,650 2,550 2,300 2,300
DE : 65 70 75 60 67 70
FL : 65 50 45 55 25 20
GA : 650 $00 400 590 425 350
ID : 960 870 870 920 700 800
IL : 2,050 1,650 1,450 1,850 1,400 1,150
IN : 1,050 850 800 970 720 450
IA : 80 75 70 75 50 40
KS : 12,400 11,800 12,000 11,800 11,000 10,700
KY : 700 640 620 500 400 420
LA : 440 300 200 390 190 170
MD : 200 205 230 190 195 220
MI : 770 570 650 750 560 630
MN : 130 60 50 85 55 45
MS : 600 350 300 520 250 250
MO : 2,150 1,650 1,500 2,000 1,500 1,350
MT : 2,700 2,350 2,600 2,500 1,800 2,100
NE : 2,450 2,350 2,350 2,250 2,100 1,850
NV : 7 6 6 6 4 5
Nd : 36 35 36 29 26 28
NM : 520 550 550 300 320 330
NY : 150 115 120 145 110 110
NC : 600 550 600 550 480 555
ND : 250 100 200 160 90 170
OH : 1,400 1,150 1,230 1,350 1,080 1,115
OK : 7,500 7,400 7,400 6,300 5,000 5,900
OR : 950 850 860 910 800 825
PA : 215 180 190 210 175 185
sc 3 400 300 285 380 275 275
so : 1,850 1,500 1,650 1,600 1,300 1,200
TN : 580 440 410 490 320 280
TTM : 6,700 6,200 5,900 4,200 2,800 3,800
UT : 155 140 145 150 130 130
VA : 290 280 290 260 250 265
WA : 2,300 2,200 2,200 2,200 700 2,000
WV : 15 13 15 12 10 ll
WI : 195 140 145 185 120 45
WY : 220 225 230 205 200 210
US : 56,948 51,064 §1,057 49,901 39,406 41,893
1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall.

2/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-18 NASS, USDA



yields are expected to be 660 pounds per harvested acre, down 9 pounds from
September 1.

Ginnings totaled 1,673,500 running bales prior to October 1, compared with
2,467,200 running bales for the same date last year, and 2,616,209 running
bales in 1990.

Cottonseed: Production for 1992 based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio, is
expected to total 6.12 million tons, down 12 percent from the
1991 production of 6.93 million tons.

U.S. ALL COTTON PRODUCTION
1982 - 1992

MILLION BALES
00

16.89
14.76 15.41 16.51 =
15.00 morrereeneeennen gs gig 19.43 PEEOEY’ ceerrs 1 RAY. feed AN Ni NY,

a0] \|\ ANN INNIN

0,00

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92
YEAR

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-12 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
199] and Forecasted October 1, 1992 (Metric Units)

1991 : 1992 : 1991 : 1992 : 1992

Metric Tons

Corn for Grain 6.81 7.77 189,860,540 222,764,830 227,040,100
Sorghum for Grain 3.70 4.35 14,719,720 21,510,830 21,674,670
Rice : 6.30 6.29 7,006,050 7,436,780 7,559,660
Soybeans for Beans 1/ : 2.30 2.44 54,064,730 56,731,530 57,375,450
Peanuts for Nuts 2.74 2.83 2,234,650 2,052,960 2,003,840
Sunflower 1/ 1.52 1,59 1,638,840 1,324,090
All Cotton 0.73 0.76 3,835,060 3,472,360 3,458,640

Upland 0.73 0.76 3,748,320 3,366,110 3,355,000

Amer-Pima 0.88 1.00 86,740 106,250 103,640
Cottonseed 6,282,710 5,568,750 5,547,890
All Hay 2/ 5.50 5.53 139,239,250 133,127,550 135,112,470

Alfalfa 2/ : 7.34 7.46 76,017,550 71,078,830 72,664,590

All Other 2/ : 4.22 4.25 63,221,700 62,048,710 62,447,880
Dry Edible Beans : 1.98 1.66 1,495,180 1,045,440 1,015,320
Dry Edible Peas 1/ 2 2.23 1.83 168,510 114,990
Austrian Winter :

Peas 1/ : 1.35 1.28 6,300 4,490
Lentils 1/ > 1.55 1.39 75,800 71,030
Tobacco : 2.44 2.44 754,530 769,750 771,780
Sugarbeets > 45.36 47.15 25,484,630 26,585,960 27,018,680
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed : 75.61 73.15 27,445,970 27,849,660 28,124,540
Apples, Comm'1 2/ : 4,489,980 4,607,590 4,670,640
Grapes Fd 5,040,230 5,570,110 5,568,300
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) : 22,770 38,650 37,740
Pecans 4 135,620 92,990 93,890
Hazelnuts 3/ : 23,130 23,590 23,590
Citrus Fruits 4/ 3 “1991-92 1992-93 1992-93

Oranges : 8,038,560 9,988,100

Lemons : 696,720 782,900

1/ 1991 revised.

2/ September estimate carried forward from August 1.

3/ September 1 forecast carried forward from mid-August forecast published
in "Hazelnut Production" released August 24, 1992.

4/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-10 NASS, USDA



Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Type, State
and United States, i991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Area Harvested

1992 1991

-- 1,000 Bales 2/ --

Upland
1 405.0 435.0 655 673 673 553.0 610.0
AZ 359.0 323.0 1,201 1,174 1,115 898.0 750.0
AR 980.0 960.0 72 00 77 1,576.0 1,550.0
CA 977.0 995.0 1,25 1,278 1,278 2,548.0 2,650.0
FL 3/ 49.0 50.0 9 780 780 73.4 81.3
GA 427.0 448.0 812 723 723 722.0 675.0
KS 3/ 1.8 2.5 347 250 250 3 1.3
LA 820.0 880.0 828 791 764 1,414.0 1,400.0
MS 1,230.0 1,345.0 888 803 785 2,275.0 2,200.0
MO 0 343.0 630 700 700 429.0 500.0
NM 65.0 45.0 465 565 608 63.0 57.0
NC 457.0 385.0 672 648 623 640.0 500.0
OK 380.0 350.0 303 343 315 240.0 230.0
SC 210.0 193.0 786 572 560 344.0 225.0
TN 610.0 620.0 552 596 58 701.0 750.0
5,400.0 3,550.0 419 406 433 4,710.0 3,200.0
VA 3/ 17.7 22.0 765 650 65 2 29.8
US 212,715.5 10,946.5 650 678 676 17,215.9 15,409.4
Amer-Pima
AZ 103.0 104.0 860 854 785 184.5 170.0
CA 64.0 95.0 1,097 1,137 1,137 146.2 225.0
MS 0.6 0.5 6 480 0.7 0.5
NM 19.4 18.0 470 600 600 19.0 22.5
TX 57.0 38.0 404 695 733 48.0 58.0
us 244.0 255.5 784 917 894 398.4 476.0
All
AL 405.0 435.0 655 673 673 553.0 610.0
AZ 462.0 427.0 1,125 1,096 1,034 1,082.5 920.0
AR 980.0 960.0 72 800 775 1,576.0 1,550.0
CA 1,041.0 1,090.0 1,242 1,266 1,266 2,694.2 2,875.0
FL 3/ 49.0 50.0 7 8 780 3.4 81.3
GA 427.0 448.0 812 723 723 722.0 675.0
KS 3/ 8 2.5 347 250 250 1.3 1.3
LA 820.0 880.0 828 791 764 1,414.0 1,400.0
MS 1,230.6 1,345.5 888 803 785 2,275.7 2,200.5
MO 327.0 343.0 630 700 700 429.0 500.0
NM 84.4 63.0 466 575 606 82.0 79.5
NC 457.0 385.0 672 648 623 640.0 500.0
OK 380.0 350.0 303 343 315 240.0 230.0
sc 210.0 193.0 786 572 560 344.0 225.0
TN : _ 610.0 620.0 552 596 581 701.0 750.0
1X : 5,457.0 3,588.0 419 409 436 4,758.0 3,258.0
VA 3/ 7 17.7 22.0 765 650 650 8.2 29.8
US :12,959.5 11,202.0 652 683 681 17,614.3  15,885.4

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-33 NASS, USDA


40 percent of Michigan's crop was in bins by October 1. Frost damage was less
severe than originally thought, resulting in higher production prospects.
Sizing is good, as moisture was adequate during most of the season. Coloring
has been aided by warm, clear days and cool nights. Wisconsin's crop looks
fine with only scattered hail damage across the State. In most areas, apples
are smaller than normal but plentiful.

Production in the Western States is forecast at 6.05 billion pounds, unchanged
from the August 1 forecast but 9 percent more than the 1991 crop.

California's harvest is almost two weeks ahead of normal with good quality
reported. Size of Colorado's apples is larger than normal this year.

However, a lower packout is expected due to hail damage in May and July.
Harvest in Oregon's Willamette Valley was almost four weeks ahead of normal
and is nearly completed now. Some sunburn damage, in addition to the very dry
season, lowered expected crop size. Milton-Freewater and other areas were
affected more negatively than earlier thought by the hot, dry spring and
summer, Washington's crop was 60 percent harvested by October 1, with picking
to proceed through mid-October. A warm August caused the crop to mature well
ahead of normal and resulted in the early harvest. Weather has been good for
harvest. Cool September temperatures helped color the apples. Wind storms
knocked fruit off trees in isolated areas. Shortage of pickers and bins were
reported by a few smaller growers. Larger than normal fruit are reported,
particularly in the southern region.

Pecans: The October 1 forecast for the U.S. pecan crop is 207 million pounds

(in-shell basis), up 1 percent from the September 1 forecast but down
31 percent from last year. State forecasts were unchanged from last month
except for decreases in Florida and South Carolina and increases in Alabama
and Oklahoma.

The Georgia forecast remains unchanged from last month at 60.0 million pounds.
Although yields will be low this year, quality is expected to be good. The
Texas forecast also remains unchanged at 60.0 million pounds. Improved
varieties in the western half of the State are doing very well. New Mexico
has experienced some problems associated with heat stress but crop quality
remains good and the forecast remains at 29.0 million pounds.

The Alabama pecan forecast increased 1 million pounds to a total of

9.00 million, 13 percent above last month. Large nut sizes and good quality
are expected. The Arkansas forecast remains unchanged at 1.50 million pounds.
Growing conditions over the summer were good for the smal] crop on the trees.
California's pecan forecast remains at 2.90 million pounds this month.
Harvest is expected to start in mid-October, about two weeks ahead of normal.
Nut quality is good.

The Florida forecast of 3.50 million pounds is down 12 percent from last
month. Moisture has been excessive in some areas and has adversely affected
yields. The Louisiana forecast remains unchanged at 5.00 million pounds.
Problems with Hurricane Andrew, imsects, and diseases have all contributed to
poor crop prospects. Mississippi's pecan forecast is also unchanged from last
month at 2.00 million pounds. A hard freeze Jast fall before the trees were
dormant and a late spring freeze reduced the crop size. The Oklahoma forecast
is 11.0 million pounds, up 22 percent from September 1. Fall and spring
freezes have reduced this year's crop but growing conditions this summer have

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-19 NASS, USDA


Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
between September 22 and October 2 to gather information
on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat,
corn, soybeans, rice, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States
that usually account for at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly
selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted
within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop.
In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that
provide information to forecast the number of heads, ears, or bolls and their
weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop
a projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is
subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until
crop maturity when the fruit are harvested and weighed. After the farm
operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain
current year harvesting Joss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 10,000 producers were
interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield
on their crops.

Estimating Procedures: National, regional, and State level objective yield

and grower reported survey estimates were reviewed for
errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey
data were alsa reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress
compared to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office
submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics
Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare
the published October 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised;

instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout
the growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records
and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports,
processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1

production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statis-
tical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between
the October 1 production forecast and the fina) estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage
deviations for the 1972-1991 20-year period is computed; then the square root
of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Proba-
bility statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current
forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors
affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent
years.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-21 NASS, USDA


For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 3.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of

3 that the current production forecast of 8.94 billion bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 3.6 percent or approximately
322 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
phat the difference will not exceed 6.3 percent or approximately 563 million
bushels.

Also shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of
the differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using
corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 117 million bushels, ranging
from 5 million to 376 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or over-state final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

10-Year Record of
Differences Between Forecast
290% Confidence and Final Estimate
Level = 3 ;-------------------------------
Quantity No. of Years

Crop and :
Unit :Percent:

:Percent: Quant:: : : :Below:Above

Ay Avg: Min.: Max. :Final:Final

Feed Grains 1/ Mt:

3.1 5.3 140 :: 3 0 13 6 4
Corn For Grain Bu: 3.6 6.3 563 ::117 5 376 5 5
Sorghum For Grain Bu: 4.4 7.5 64 3: 25 6 59 7 3
Rice Cwt: 2.5 4.4 Toi: 3 1 4 4 6
Soybeans For : 33
Beans Bu: 4.0 6.8 143 :: 57 2 119 4 6
Cotton Bales 2/: 5.0 8.6 1,366 ::490 31 1,424 6 4
Dry Edible : rt
Beans Cwt : 4.0 6.8 2 Q 1.0 7 3

1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats, and barley.
2/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-22 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Area Planted, by State and United States, 1991 1/

State : 1991 Area Planted State : 1991 Area Planted

1,000 Acres

1,000 Acres

AL H 360 : MO : 4,500
AR : 3,250 : NE 3 2,500
DE : 255 NJ : 125
FL : 45 > NC : 1,350
GA : 600 : ND : 635
IL : 9,200 : OH : 3,800
IN : 4,450 : OK : 260
IA : 8,700 : PA : 310
KS t 2,000 : SC : 650
KY : 1,150 : SD : 2,200
LA : 1,150 TN : 1,100
MD : 510 TX : 180
MI : 1,400 : VA : 530
MN : 5,500 : WI + 570
MS : 1,900 :

: US : 59,180

Sunflower: Area Planted, by Varietal Type,
State, and United States, 1991 1/

Varietal Type

Non-0i1

1,000 Acres
co : 37 26 63

KS : 79 26 105
MN : 210 80 290
NE : 30 20 50
ND : 1,450 260 1,710
SD : 440 10 450
TX : 12 2B 25
Oth Sts : 36 17 53
us : 2,294 452 2,746

1/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-30 NASS, USDA



Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992
(Domestic Units)

Production

Corn for Grain Bu : 108.6 123.8 7,474,480 8,769,865 8,938,175
Sorghum for Grain "$9.0 69.3 579,490 846,844 853,294
Rice 1/ Cwt : 5,617 5,615 154,457 163,953 166,662

Soybeans for Beans 2/Bu : 34.2 36.3 1,986,539 2,084,527 2,108,187
Peanuts for Nuts Lb : 2,444 2,526 4,926,570 4,526,000 4,417,700

Sunflower 2/ " : 1,352 1,416 3,613,030 2,919,115
All Cotton 1/ Bale: 652 681 17,614.3 15,948.4 15,885.4
Upland ij" >: 660 676 17,218.9 15,460.4 18,409.4
Amer-Pima lj": 784 894 398.4 488.0 476.0
Cottonseed Ton: 6,925.5 6,138.5 6,115.5
All Hay 3/ "3 2.45 2.47 153,485 146,748 148,936
Alfalfa 3/ "3 3.28 3.33 83,795 78,351 80,099
All Other 3/ "3 1.88 1,89 69,690 68,397 68,837
Dry Edible Beans 1/ Cwt : 1,770 1,477 32,963 23,048 22,384
Dry Edible Peas 1/2/ " : 1,987 1,635 3,715 2,535
Austrian Winter 3

Peas 2j" : 1,209 1,138 139 99
Lentils 1/2/ "31,381 1,243 1,671 1,566
Tobacco Lb : 2,178 2,177 1,663,464 1,697,011 1,701,475
Sugarbeets Ton: 20.2 21.0 28,092 29,306 29,783
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed "3 33.7 32.6 30,254 30,699 31,002
Pasture and Range 3

Feed 4/ Pct : 77 82
Apples, Comm'] 3/. Lb : 9,898,700 10,158,000 10,297,000
Grapes Ton : 5,555.9 6,140.0 6,138.0
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) "oy 25.1 42.6 41.6
Pecans Lb : 299,000 205,000 207,000
Hazelnuts 5/ Ton : 25.5 26.0 26.0
Citrus Fruits 6/ : 1991-92 1992-93 1992-93

Oranges Ton : 8,861 11,010

Lemons "3 768 863

1/ Yield in pounds.

2/ 1991 revised.

3/ September estimate carried forward from August 1.

4/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1981-90
average is 74 percent.

5/ September 1 forecast carried forward from mid-August forecast published
in "Hazelnut Production" released August 24, 1992.

6/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992 (Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

1,000 Acres
Corn : 75,951 79,335 68,842 72,223

Sorghum : 11,014 13,470 9,820 12,319
Rice : 2,857.0 3,025.0 2,750.0 2,968.0
Soybeans 2/ : 59,180 59,100 58,011 58,078
Peanuts : 2,039.2 1,777.5 2,015.7 1,749.0
Sunflower 2/ : 2,746 2,124 2,673 2,062
All Cotton > 14,052.1 13,419.0 12,959.5 11,202.0

Upland :  13,801.7 13,155.5 12,715.5 10,946.5

Amer-Pima : 250.4 263.5 244.0 255.5
All Hay : 62,575 60,405

Alfalfa : 25,585 24,063

All Other : 36,990 36,342
Dry Edible Beans : 1,909.1 1,582.8 1,862.7 1,515.0
Dry Edible Peas 2/ : 190.0 159.0 187.0 155.0
Austrian Winter :

Peas 2/ : 13.0 11.2 11.5 8.7
Lentils 2/ : 123.0 128.0 121.0 126.0
Tobacco : 763.8 781.6

2 1,415.9

Sugarbeets : 1,427.4 1,440.2 1,388.
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ 1991 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-6 NASS, USDA



Winter Wheat: Yield and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-92

Production

1991 1/

2,750 4,180
3,045 3,960
20,460 39,100
32,800 41,250
71,300 69,000
3,551 4,060
575 840
14,025 16,100
49,000 52,000
44,800 62,100
28,800 22,500
1,700 1,560
363,000 363,800
10,800 23,100
3,800 6,120
9,750 12,760
24,080 35,280
1,980 1,890
4,500 10,500
48,000 64,800
72,000 60,900
67,200 55,500
360 425
1,196 1,400
8,000 11,220
5,390 6,160
19,200 27,750
2,970 5,950
52,920 59,095
140,000 171,100
41,600 42,900
7,700 10,175
8,525 12,925
45,500 33,600
7,680 13,440
84,000 129,200
4,680 5,200
12,250 15,105
40,600 102,000
450 539
5,880 1,800
5,800 5,250

1,372,617 1,606,534

1/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-19 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992 (Metric Units)

Area Planted

Area Harvested 1/

1991 1992 1991 _ 1992
Hectares

Corn 30,736,610 32,106,080 27,859,670 29,227,930
Sorghum 4,457,260 5,451,170 3,974,060 4,985,380
Rice 1,156,200 1,224,190 1,112,900 1,201,120
Soybeans 2/ 23,949,550 23,917,180 23,476,470 23,503,590
Peanuts 825,240 719,340 815,730 707,800
Sunflower 2/ 1,111,280 859,560 1,081,740 834,470
All Cotton 5,686,740 5,430,540 5,244,580 4,533,340

Upland 5,585,410 5,323,900 5,145,840 4,429,940

Amer-Pima 101,330 106,640 98,740 103,400
All Hay 25,323,480 24,445,300

Alfalfa 10,353,990 9,738,060

All Other 14,969,480 14,707,240
Dry Edible Beans 772,590 640,540 753,820 613,110
Dry Edible Peas 2/ 76,890 64,350 75,680 62,730
Austrian Winter

Peas 2/ 5,260 4,530 4,650 3,520
Lentils 2/ 49,780 51,800 48,970 50,990
Tobacco 309,090 316,290
Sugarbeets 577,650 582,830 561,790 573,000
Sugarcane for

Sugar and Seed 362,970 384,460

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ 1991 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1991-92

(Metric Units)

Crop een nne enna en nse nnn n enn cw nnn nsec nnn ene nn enn n nese nceccnn=
1992 1/ 1991 1992 1/
Hectares

Flaxseed 142,050 77,300 136,380 73,650
Potatoes

Winter 2/ 5,340 5,420 4,940 5,420

Spring 36,500 35,530 35,410 34,400

Summer 40,830 35,860 39,380 34,800

Fall 486,920 460,380 476,480 453,900

Total 2/ 569,600 537,190 556,210 528, 530

Sweetpotatoes 32,860 33,990 31,480 32,660

Hops 16,010 17,120

1/ 1992 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ 1992 revised.

Crop Production
October 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Crop Production:

Index Numbers

United States, 1983-92 (1977=100)

Production

Feed

Hay
and

: Grains : Forage :

Food : Sugar :
Grains :

Cotton : Tobacco : 011

Year :

: All /:
1983: 87
1984 : 110
1985 : 4116
1986 : 107
1987: 106
1988: 91
1989: 106
1990 : 113
1991 : 111
1992: «(119

100
107
106
107
101

88
100
101
103
101

116
129
121
106
107

98
107
136
104
126

Crops : : Crops
93 54 75 91
95 90 90 106
97 93 79 117

106 68 61 107
111 103 62 108
105 107 72 89
105 85 71 106
108 108 85 107
113 122 87 114
118 110 89 118

1/ Includes some miscellaneous crop production not included in separate groups

of crops shown.

Crop Production
October 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop A grcaltaral

Production Serv
United States
Department of

Washington, D.C.

Released October 8, 1992, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts
refer to October 1, 1992.

Record High Corn and Soybean Yields

Corn for grain production is forecast at a record high 8.94 billion bushels, up
2 percent from }ast month and 20 percent above the 1991 crop. The U.S. average
yield per acre is forecast at a record high 123.8 bushels, up 2.4 bushels from
last month and 15.2 bushels above the 1991 average yield. As of October 4,

11 percent of the crop was harvested in the 17 major producing States,

35 percentage points behind last year and 22 points behind the five-year
average.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.11 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the
September 1 forecast and up 6 percent from 1991. The average yield is estimated
at a record high 36.3 bushels per acre, 0.4 bushels above the September 1 yield
and 2.1 bushels above 1991. Wisconsin showed the only decline in yield from
last month.

All wheat production was estimated at 2.46 billion bushels, up 2 percent from
September 1 and 24 percent higher than 1991. The U.S. yield estimate of
39.4 bushels per acre equaled the second highest average on record and was up
1.2 bushels from last month.

All cotton production for 1992 is forecast at 15.9 million bales, down slightly
from last month and down 10 percent from last year. While warmer weather
improved prospects in Texas, the Delta's crop development was hampered by
prolonged cool, wet weather.

All orange production for the 1992-93 season is forecast at 11.0 million tons,
24 percent higher than last season and 40 percent higher than the 1990-91 crop.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
information call (202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (10-92)


Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992 1/

Total Production 2/

State

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.

2/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
U.S, 1990-38.6, 1991-61.8.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-48 NASS, USDA


Oats: Area Planted and Harvested, by State
and United States, 1990-92

Area Planted 1/ Area Harvested
State :~-----------------------+----~---------+----~--------~-------~---------5--
1990 1991 2/ 1992 1990 1991 2/ 1992
1,000 Acres
AL : 45 55 50 25 25 25
AR : 55 50 25 45 30 20
CA : 380 380 380 45 45 35
co : 90 88 90 45 30 35
GA : 65 95 80 40 60 55
ID : 60 80 60 30 45 20
IL : 600 450 400 170 120 130
IN : 140 100 100 70 45 40
IA : 1,300 800 850 600 425 375
KS : 160 160 200 120 110 140
ME : 36 32 25 31 23 22
MD : 22 16 13 17 12 9
MI : 250 150 140 225 120 120
MN : 1,100 750 700 730 570 500
Mo : 60 65 90 42 32 45
MT : 160 200 165 70 110 70
NE : 450 340 330 280 220 220
NY : 160 130 140 135 100 110
NC : 80 85 90 40 40 50
ND : 1,000 950 780 600 650 550
OH : 270 200 220 230 170 170
OK : 100 80 110 60 34 50
OR : 70 80 65 45 45 45
PA : 270 250 230 240 210 205
SC 60 68 58 32 40 35
sD 1,250 950 900 950 700 650
TX 1,100 1,100 700 225 180 130
UT 40 50 45 12 8 15
WA 80 85 65 40 40 30
WV 10 10 10 6 5 6
WI 900 750 795 710 530 555
WY 60 55 55 35 32 30
us 10,423 8,654 7,961 5,945 4,806 4,492
1/ Includes area planted preceding fall.
2/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-12 NASS, USOA



Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1991-92
(Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare Production
Crop Joc enee--------------
1991 1992 1/
Metric Tons
Potatoes :
Winter 2/ : 23.96 25.09 118,340 135,990
Spring : 26.43 30.61 936,030 1,052,830
Summer : 26.09 27.58 1,027,250 959,850
Fall : 35.39 16,861,390
Total > 34.06 18,943, 02C
Hops : 1.96 1.79 31,370 30,720
Peaches : 1,212,130 1,141,010
Pears : 820,550 854,980
Sweet Cherries : 137,530 153,770
Tart Cherries 3 86,140 120,110
Apricots : 86,910 99,970
Nectarines (CA) : 195,040 217,720
Olives (CA) : 58,970 122,470
Plums (CA) : 197,770 226,800
Dried Prunes (CA) : 169,640 181,440
Almonds (CA) : 222,260 249,480
Pistachios (CA) : 34,930 49,900
Walnuts (CA) : 234,960 190,510

1/ 1992 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1992 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-11 NASS, USDA


record. By September 29, harvest was 19 percent complete, near normal for the

date, In Oklahoma, harvest was about 20 percent complete by the end of the
month.

All Cotton: All cotton production is forecast at 15.9 million bales, down

slightly from September 1 and down 10 percent from last year’s
production. Of the total, Upland is expected to account for 15.4 million
bales, while Pima production accounts for the rest at 476,000 bales. Total
area for harvest is estimated at 11.2 million acres, down 14 percent from
1991. Yield is expected to average 681 pounds per acre, 2 pounds below the
September 1 forecast but 29 pounds above last year.

Upland cotton production in Texas and Oklahoma is forecast at 3.43 million
bales, up 6 percent from the September 1 forecast but 31 percent below 1991.
Early September's cool weather continued to slow development, but temperatures
increased in mid to late month, promoting maturation. The large number of
small bolls counted last month by the Texas cotton objective yield survey now
indicate the large boll count at its third highest point in the previous

10 years. Early boll weights were the second highest. The Texas crop was
mostly in fair condition on October 4. Harvest progressed in Central Texas
and the Blacklands.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
expect to produce 6.40 million bales, down 3 percent from September 1 but
virtually unchanged from last year. Cool temperatures and showers in this
region slowed crop development during September. At month's end, all States
continued behind the average boll opening progress. Objective crop counts
showed Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi with the second, third, and fourth
highest boll counts in the last 10 years. These counts are unchanged from
last month for Arkansas. On September 1, Louisiana had the seventh highest
count and Mississippi's counts were the third highest. Fruit shedding during
September appeared normal for Louisiana and Mississippi, but shedding in
Arkansas was about double the norm. Defoliation and spraying for insects was
active during the month, and harvest was well behind average in this region.
The majority of the crop in Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee was in good
condition, while Louisiana and Mississippi reported more than half of their
acreage in fair condition.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 3.46 million bales, down 1 percent from both last month and
last year. Yields in this region are expected to average 1,217 pounds per
acre, 15 pounds above last year's average. October 1 objective yield data
indicated California had the third highest count of large bolls during the
previous 10 years, and the fourth largest total fruit count. Cotton
defoliation continued during the month and harvest progressed in the desert
and began in the San Joaquin Vailey. California, at 15 percent harvested, was
well ahead of the average, 3 percent as of October 4. Arizona's harvest
progressed twice as fast as the average of 14 percent. Insect pressure was
severe in western cotton fields, but light to moderate in other areas.

The forecast in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and
South Carolina) puts production at 2.01 million bales, 1 percent below last
month and 11 percent below last year's production. Crop prospects declined in
the Carolinas as unusually cool weather continued in the region. Regional

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-11 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992 1/

Area Harvested Yield Production
State = ;------------------------------------~---------------~---- 9-2 -- === ===

1991 1992 1991 1992: «©1990 =: «(1991 1992

- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons -------
CA : 159.0 150.0 24.7 26.5 4,334 3,927 3,975
co : 40.2 40.0 24.0 23.4 944 965 936
ID : 195.0 200.0 26.0 25.0 4,836 5,070 5,000
MI : 166.0 174.0 15.5. 18.5 3,266 2,573 3,219
MN : 363.0 373.0 17.0 19.0 5,387 6,171 7,087
MT : 56.3 55.8 23.3 23.0 1,240 1,312 1,283
NE t 78.6 77.8 20.0 18.6 1,491 1,572 1,447
ND >: 193.9 193.0 18.4 18.0 2,782 3,568 3,474
OH : 18.5 20.7 16.0 15.5 355 296 321
OR : 18.6 21.5 28.2 25.5 488 525 548
1X : 30.5 39.1 22.0 25.0 1,017 671 978
WY : 66.4 69.2 20.6 21.0 1,308 1,365 1,453
Oth :
Sts 2/ : 2.2 1.8 35.0 34.3 65 77 62
US : 1,388.2 1,415.9 20.2 21.0 27,513 28,092 29,783

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Area Harvested Yield 1/ Production 1/
State 9 ¢------------------------- +--+ 5 nnn enn nn enn nnn nnn nn nnn nnn
1991 1992 1991 1992 : 1990 : 1991 1992
- 1,000 Acres - ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ---~---
FL : 443.0 450.0 34.9 33.5 15,407 15,461 15,075
HI : 74.0 71.0 81.9 87.0 6,723 6,063 6,177
LA : 345.0 390.0 22.1 22.0 5,056 7,620 8,580
TX : 34.9 39.0 31.8 30.0 950 1,110 1,170
us 896.9 950.0 33.7 32.6 28,136 30,254 31,002
1/ Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-44 NASS, USDA


Peanuts for Nuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Area Harvested : Production 1/

State
1991 1992 1991 1992

: - 1,000 Acres - - 1,000 Pounds ----
AL : 277.0 239.0 2,305 2,500 2,500 638,485 597,500
FL : 118.0 107.0 2,370 3,000 2,700 279,660 288,900
GA : 895.0 695.0 2,490 2,700 2,700 2,228,550 1,876,500
NM : 22.7 22.0 2,250 2,300 2,300 51,075 50,600
NC : 162.0 161.0 2,850 2,800 2,700 461,700 434,700
OK : 106.0 98.0 2,300 2,200 2,200 243,800 215,600
sc : 14.0 14.0 2,400 2,400 2,200 33,600 30,800
TX : 325.0 320.0 2,100 2,250 2,100 682,500 672,000
VA : 96.0 93.0 3,200 2,800 2,700 307,200 251,100
us 2,015.7 1,749.0 2,444 2,588 2,526 4,926,570 4,417,700

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1990-1991
and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Production
State  p-------- nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nen nnn nnn nnn nnn crn nnn nnn nme nn nnn nce sesan
1990 1991 1992
1,000 Tons
US : 5,968.5 6,925.5 6,115.5
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-32 NASS, USDA



Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Utilized Production

1,000 Pounds

: 4,000 7,000 6,000

AR : 100 1,500 1,000
CA : 2,800 2,300 2,900
FL 2,000 2,000 2,000
GA 56,000 77,000 50,000
LA 1,500 2,500 1,000
MS 1,800 5,000 1,500
NM : 34,000 29,000 29,000
NC 2/ : 100 3,000 1,200
OK 2 800 1,000 1,000
Sc : 400 3,000 300
1X : 40,000 30;000 40,000
US : 143,500 163,300 135,900

Pecans Native & Seedling :

: 1,000 11,000 3,000

AR : 150 1,500 500
FL : 1,600 1,500 1,500
GA : 9,000 23,000 10,000
LA 3 4,500 24,500 4,000
MS : 400 2,500 500
NC 2/ : 300 2,500 800
OK : 4,200 16,000 10,000
SC : 100 2,500 200
TX : 20,000 30,000 20,000
US : 41,250 115,000 50,500

All Pecans :

5,000 18,000 9,000

AR 250 3,000 1,500
CA 2,800 2,300 2,900
FL 3,600 3,500 3,500
GA 65,000 100,000 60,000
LA 6,000 27,000 5,000
MS 2,200 7,500 2,000
NM 34,000 29,000 29,000
NC 2/ 400 5,500 2,000
OK 5,000 17,000 11,000
Sc : 500 5,500 500
Tx : 60,000 60,000 60,000
Oth Sts 2/3/ : 20,250 20,700 20,600
us : 205,000 299,000 207,000

1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
3/ AZ, KS, MO, and TN. No breakdown between varieties available.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-49 NASS, USDA


Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Type, State,
and United States, 1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Varietal : Area Harvested : Yield Production
Type &
State 1991 1/

: - 1,000 Acres - ~--- Pounds --- --------- 1,000 Pounds
011 :
CO 2/ : 35 42 950 33,250
KS : 75 75 1,160 49,000 87,000
MN : 207 149 1,850 113,850 382,950
NE 2/ : 29 26 800 23,200
ND : 1,410 1,020 1,350 1,071,600 1,903,500
sD : 431 420 1,250 378,000 538,750
TX : 12 12 1,250 6,000 15,000
oth =:
Sts 2/: 33 24 1,336 44,100
US 3/ : 2,232 1,768 1,357 1,618,450 3,027,750
Non-0i1 :
CO 2/ : 25 23 1,000 25,000
KS : 25 30 1,320 32,880 33,000
MN : 79 59 1,600 112,125 126,400
NE 2/ : 20 ai 1,000 20,000
ND : 255 113 1,300 469,700 331,500
SD : 9 10 1,350 21,750 12,150
TX : 12 18 1,390 19,500 16,680
oth =:
Sts 2/: 16 20 1,284 20,550
US 3/ : 44) 294 1,327 655,955 585,280
All :
cO 2/ : 60 65 971 1,300 58,250 84,500
KS : 100 105 1,200 1,350 81,880 120,000 141,750
MN : 286 208 1,781 1,600 225,975 509,350 332,800
NE 2/ : 49 47 882 1,055 43,200 49,585
ND : 1,665 1,133 1,342 1,400 1,541,300 2,235,000 1,586,200
SD 3 440 430 1,252 1,450 399,750 550,900 623,500
TX : 24 30 1,320 1,350 25,500 31,680 40,500
Oth:
Sts 2/: 49 44 1,319 1,370 64,650 60,280

US 3/ : 2,673 2,062 1,352 1,416 2,274,405 3,613,030 2,919,115
1/ Revised.
2/ Estimates began with 1991.
3/ Estimates for 1990 include only KS, MN, ND, SD, and TX. Estimates for
1991 and 1992 include all States except AK and HI.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-31 NASS, USDA


The Florida tangerine forecast is 2.60 million boxes, unchanged from last year
but 33 percent larger than the 1990-91 crop. Sizes are smaller than normal
and harvest has not yet begun.

The California tangerine crop is forecast at 2.50 million boxes, up 4 percent
from last season and up 85 percent over two year's ago. Tangerine trees are
recovering from the December 1990 freeze and good quality is expected.
Arizona's tangerine crop is expected to total 950,000 boxes, down 21 percent
from last season but up 58 percent from the 1990-91 crop.

K-Early Citrus: The October 1 forecast of the Florida K-Early Citrus crop is

200,000 boxes. If realized, this will be a 21 percent
increase over last season and a 25 percent increase over two years ago.
Harvest started on a limited basis with small sizes reported.

Florida Citrus: Groves in all areas of Florida's citrus belt were in

excellent condition during September. Frequent rains and
thunderstorms have provided above average moisture levels in almost all areas.
The ideal growing conditions produced an abundance of new growth on trees of
all ages. Fruit growth has progressed normally in most areas. Many of the
early maturing varieties of fruit started showing color break by the middle of
September. Harvest for this season got underway with the shipping of red
grapefruit September 17 from south Florida. By the end of the month navel
oranges, K-Early Citrus Fruit, and white and colored grapefruit were moving to
retail outlets in limited quantities. Caretakers have been active cutting
cover crops, spraying, and fertilizing young trees.

Texas Citrus: Harvest of early oranges began in the Rio Grande Valley by late

September. Growers are optimistic about having a good crop.
Insect and disease problems have been light to moderate. Harvest of
grapefruit will begin soon.

Apples: The final forecast of the 1992 apple crop places production at
10.3 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the August 1 forecast and
4 percent more than last year's production.

Eastern States expect 2.99 billion pounds, up 2 percent from August 1 but
fractionally less than 1991. As of October 5, 55 percent of New England's
apples were harvested, compared with the average of 70 percent. Color is good
and sizes are averaging about medium. In New York, good weather during late
September greatly improved quality. On October 1, growers were completing
harvest of Cortland and Spartan varieties and were gearing up to pick Empire
apples in the first week of October. Size and color of the McIntosh crop were
excellent but fruit are softer than in past years. Pennsylvania's crop is
maturing slowly, as the season is running about 10 days behind last year.
Color is fine but sizes were affected by inadequate rain in August.
Virginia's harvest was about 40 percent completed by October 1. Some
producers report that size is small, a result of cool, rainy weather in July
and August.

Production in the Central States is forecast at 1.26 billion pounds, up
7 percent from the August 1 forecast but 8 percent less than 1991. About

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-18 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1991-92
(Domestic Units)

Area Harvested

Area Planted

CN +) 2 ae
1991 1992 1/ 1991 1992 1/
1,000 Acres
Flaxseed : 351 191 337 182
Potatoes :
Winter 2/ : 13.2 13.4 12.2 13.4
Spring : 90.2 87.8 87.5 85.0
Summer : 100.9 88.6 97.3 86.0
Fall : 1,203.2 1,137.6 1,177.4 1,121.6
Total 2/ : 1,407.5 1,327.4 1,374.4 1,306.0
Sweetpotatoes : 81.2 84.0 77.8 80.7
Hops : 39.6 42.3
1/ 1992 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1992 revised.
Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1991-92

(Domestic Units)

Production

Crop and Unit

Potatoes

Winter 2/ Cwt 214 224 2,609 2,998

Spring " 236 273 20,636 23,211

Summer " 233 246 22,647 21,161

Fall " 316 371,730

Total " 304 417,622
Hops Lb 1,748 1,601 69,155.4 67,731.0
Peaches " 2,672,300 2,515,500
Pears Ton : 904.5 942.5
Sweet Cherries "oy 151.6 169.5
Tart Cherries Lb: 189,900 264,800
Apricots Ton : 95.8 110.2
Nectarines (CA) wos 215.0 240.0
Olives (CA) "oy 65.0 135.0
Plums (CA) wos 218.0 250.0
Dried Prunes (CA) " : 187.0 200.0
Almonds (CA) Lb: 490,000 550,000
Pistachios (CA) oy 77,000 110,000
Walnuts (CA) Ton : 259.0 210.0

1/ 1992 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ 1992 revised.

Crop Production
October 1992

Agricultural Statistics Board

A-8

NASS, USDA


Wheat Class Percentage Estimates

The following percentages are the basis for the U.S. wheat production by class
estimates each year. These estimates are based on the latest varietal survey

data available. The percentages used for the 1992 end-of-season production by
class estimates will be used during the 1993 forecast season. However, if an
unusual situation significantly distorts a State's typical distribution, then

updated percentages are used during the forecasts.
Wheat: Acreage Distribution, by Class, by States, 1991-92

Winter : Oth Spr (excl Durum)

State : Hard Red Soft Red White : Hard Red

: 1991 : 1992

Percent

AL 100 100
AZ 100 100
AR 100 100
CA 2 93 90 7 10
co : 100 100 84 84 16 16
DE : 100 100
FL 100 100 :
GA : 100 100
1D : 20 29 80 71 38 30 62 70
IL : 2 2 98 98
IN : 100 100
IA : 70 70 30 30
KS > 98 99 2 1
KY : 6 6 94 94
LA 2 2 98 98
MD : 100 100
MI 3 28 28 72 72
MN : 100 100 100 100
MS : 100 100
MO : 3 3 97 97
MT : 99 99 1 1 100 100
NE : 100 100
NV : 100 100 12 12 88 88
NJ : 100 100
NM : 100 100
NY : 1 1 2 2 97 97
NC : 100 100
ND : 100 100 100 100
OH : 100 100
OK > 99 99 1 1
OR : 1 1 99 99 30 15 70 85
PA : 100 100
SC : 100 100
sD : 100 100 100 100
TN : 100 100
TX 2 94 94 6 6
UT 93 93 7 7 71 71 29 29
VA 100 100
WA 5 5 95 95 13 20 87 80
Ww 100 100
WI 93 93 7 7 100 100
WY 100 100 100 97 3
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-22 NASS, USDA



Maturity of this year's sorghum crop has generally run behind average all
season. As of October 4, the 12 major producing States reached 53 percent
maturity; percent harvested stood at 32. These compare to averages of 77 and
40 percent, respectively. Most remaining sorghum needs warm, dry weather to
reach full potential. The Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma yield forecasts are
record highs, if realized.

Rice: Production of all rice is forecast at 167 million cwt, 2 percent above

the September 1 forecast and 8 percent above the 1991 total. This
forecast production would be the largest rice crop since 1981 and the second
highest of record. Yield forecasts for Arkansas, California, and Mississippi
were up from September 1 as growers realized higher than expected production
at harvest time. California's forecast yield, at 8,300 pounds per acre,
yepresents a substantia] increase from the previous State record high of
7,900 pounds set in 1989. The yield forecast for the later-than-usual Texas
crop continued to decline, as did second crop prospects in Texas and southern
ouisiana.

Soybeans: Production is forecast at 2.11 billion bushels, up 1 percent from

the September 1 forecast and up 6 percent from 1991. The average
yield is estimated at a record high 36.3 bushels per acre, 0.4 bushels above
the September 1 yield and 2.1 bushels above 1991.

Wisconsin showed the only decline in yield from last_month where cooler
weather in has kept the crop well behind normal development.

Across most of the U.S., the crop is rated in good condition. Average pod
counts are up from last year, however, average pod weight is about normal.

Harvest at 21 percent completed, continues to progress but is behind last
year's pace by 16 points.

U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
1983 - 1992

BILLION BUSHELS

2.60
2.1

°
Nn
=
=

2.00 Jovi 186.. 194 |

1.60/74 1A)
1.00/41 |- \A\Z\
Y
Z

WS
AX

mA

0.00

DBC
A

83 84 86 86 87 88 89 90 91 92

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-9 NASS, USDA


Prunes and Plums: Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon,
and Washington is forecast at 41,600 tons, down 2 percent
from September 1 but 66 percent more than last year.

In Idaho, harvest was completed by mid-September with no major problems
reported. The quality of the Michigan plum and prune crop was good but yields
varied widely. Some blocks had excellent output, while others were barren.
Yields were generally better in the west central area and worst in the
northwest. In western Oregon, harvest of late varieties of prunes and plums
was finished by the end of September. The hot, dry weather during the growing
Season reduced output. Harvest is over in Washington and shipments are nearly
complete.

Oranges: The October 1 forecast of U.S. orange production for the
1992-93 season is 11.0 million tons, up 24 percent from the
previous season and 40 percent higher than the 1990-91 crop.

The forecast for all Florida oranges is 186 million boxes, 33 percent more
than last season and 23 percent larger than the 1990-91 crop. Production of
early and mid-season varieties is forecast at 114 million boxes, up 37 percent
from last year and 30 percent over the 1990-91 crop. Florida Valencia produc-
tion is expected to total 72.0 million boxes, 28 percent more than last
season's crop and 12 percent above the 1990-91 output. Fruit set is heavy
this year but the size of all oranges is smaller than normal.

California's 1992-93 all orange forecast is 68.0 million boxes, 3 percent more
than last year. California's orange acreage is making an excellent recovery
from the December 1990 freeze. The Navel crop in California is expected to
total 38.0 million boxes, 8 percent more than production from the 1991-92
season. The crop has a large set and good fruit sizes. The initial Valencia
forecast is 30.0 million boxes, down 3 percent from the previous crop.

The Arizona all orange crop is expected to total 1.90 million boxes, down
20 percent from last season but 9 percent above the 1990-91 season. Groves
are in good to excellent condition at this time. The initial 1992-93 Texas
all orange forecast is 450,000 boxes. Last season's production was only
30,000 boxes as trees continued to recover from the December 1989 freeze.

The October 1 U.S. al? orange production forecast has deviated from the final
production by an average of 927,000 tons over the past ten seasons. The range
extends from a low of 333,000 tons in 1982-83 to a high of 2.39 million tons
in 1983-84. The large difference between the October 1, 1983, forecast and
the final production for the 1983-84 season was the result of a late

December 1983 freeze adversely affecting the Florida and Texas citrus crops.

Florida Frozen Concentrated Juice Yield: The 1992-93 forecast of all Frozen
Concentrated Orange Juice Yield is

1.48 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast is projected to

estimate the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors

Association. The final 1991-92 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was

1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 1992-93 U.S. grapefruit crop
(excluding California's "Other Areas") is 2.53 million tons, up
26 percent from Jast year and 20 percent over two years ago. Last year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-16 NASS, USDA


Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1990-92

Area Planted Area Harvested

State pooceo-ee------+------- === ----- + ---- +--+ - +--+ +--+

1991 1992 1991 : 1992
1,000 Acres

ID : 12.0 10.0 11.0 8.0

oR : 1.0 1.2 0:5 0.7

us 13.0 11.2 11.5 8.7

Yield Production
1D : 1,200 1,100 121 132 88

OR : 1,400 1,500 6 7 1]

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1991-92 1/

: Area Planted Area Harvested

State Pomoc ne nnc ncn nnn nen nen nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nan nnn nnn nnnnnrmnrnnnnns
1991 1992 1991 : 1992

cA : 5.6 5.3 4.6 5.3

FL : 7.6 8.1 7.6 8.1

us : 13.2 13.4 12.2 13.4

Yield oz Production

1991 1992 1991 1992
------- Cwt ------- ------ 1,000 Cwt ------

CA 245 260 1,127 1,378

FL 195 200 1,482 1,620

US 214 224 2,609 2,998

1/ 1991 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-39 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed:
1991-92 and Average 1/

Condition, by State and United States,

State : Average

Percent

: 1981-90
AL : 67
AZ : 81
AR : 69
CA : 74
co : 78
CT : 80
DE : 69
FL 81
GA 64
1D 74
IL 75
IN 76
IA 77
KS 76
KY 76
LA 77
ME 85
MD 71
MA 85
MI 84
MN 75
MS 72
MO 76
MT 71
NE 75

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to

1991

80
60
88
62
88
70
80
80
74
75
72
53
75
60
83
94
67
65
66
75
93
92
65
84
59

1992

: State : Average

severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Crop Production
October 1992

A-40

1992

101

1991
: 1981-90
Percent
74 62
89 81
79 70
84 96
80 57
72 84
62 70
76 68
75 80
78 72
74 46
87 63
67 74
70 81
75 80
63 91
76 88
87 68
79 64
77 81
72 60
80 76
79 99
74 77
fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA



DROUGHT SEVERITY
! (LONG TERM, PALMER)

df October 3, 1992
7A) Next Chart Oct. 20, 1992
\ 7] f extreme io \
Pye Poona gy) .
(ae os mowt
He @
EXTREME MOST
EXTREME Most on
SEVERE 4 N } ad
ON worst ws
Ae ~- rN »
t i} “4
i) 4 fost
t
ory
worst

i

mors!
4
Most
[0

WOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY — toved on protein ropern |

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little rom week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term {few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-5 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Area Harvested Production

199]

1991 : 1992 1991 : 1992

: - 1,000 Acres - ---- 1,000 Cwt --~-
AR : 1,260 ‘1,320 66,780 71,280
cA 27325 370 25,350 30,710
LA : 510 590 24,735 27,730
MS > 220 235 12,320 12,690
MOl/ : 92 105 4.692 5,460
TX > 343 348 20,580 18,792
us : 2,750 2,968 154,457 166,662

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All
ee Looocweo20)SOOTMC~S~S~S
1990 : 107,806 47,328 954 156,088
1991 : 109,049 44,589 820 154,457
1992 1/ : 118,831 47,165 666 166,662

1/ Indicated October 1, 1992, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of yield differences by class and current acreage estimates.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-28 NASS, USDA



other Southern States. As of October 4, the crop was 83% harvested, compared
to 72% last year and 72% average.

Corn for Grain: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 8.94 billion

bushels, up 2 percent from last month and 20 percent above
the 1991 crop. If realized, this would be the largest corn crop ever
produced. The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at a record high
123.8 bushels, up 2.4 bushels from last month and 15.2 bushels above the
1991 average Jiela.

By October 4, the corn harvest was progressing well behind normal, as only
11 percent of the crop had been harvested, Last year 46 percent of the crop
had been harvested in the 17 major producing States and the average for the
previous 5 years was 33 percent.

The late maturing crop has developed better than previously expected thanks to
i

ood weather conditions in most States. Actual weight of grain per ear from
arvested survey samples has been above weights previously forecasted.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION
1983 - 1992

BILLION BUSHELS

8.88 8.94
8.23
7.53 7.88 2.47

2.001.
0.00

838 84 86 86 87 88 89 90 91 92
YEAR

8.00 fog

6.00 |e SQ |:

Sorghum for Grain: Grain sorghum production is forecast at 853 million

bushels, up 1 percent from September 1 and up 47 percent
from 1991. U.S. yields are forecast at 69.3 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels
from last month and 10.3 bushels better than 1991. Area for grain is
unchanged from last month.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-8 NASS, USDA


California's “Other Areas" grapefruit crop totaled 217,000 tons (6.50 million
boxes). The first forecast for that type of grapefruit will be made on April
1, 1993.

The October 1 forecast for Florida's al] grapefruit.crop is 54.0 million
boxes, 27 percent more than last year and 20 percent larger than the 1990-91
crop. Grapefruit sizes are significantly below average with maturity levels
behind the two previous seasons. Less than 100,000 boxes have been utilized
through October 4.

The Florida white seedless grapefruit forecast is 25.0 million boxes, up

31 percent from last season. The colored seedless forecast is 27.0 million
boxes, 22 percent more than the 1991-92 crop. The seedy grapefruit crop is
expected to reach 2.00 million boxes, a 67 percent increase over last season.

The first forecast for the California desert grapefruit crop is 3.50 million
boxes, unchanged from the previous two seasons. Good fruit quality is
anticipated. The 1992-93 Arizona grapefruit forecast is 2.20 million boxes,
down 21 percent from last season. This year's production is near the average
compared with large crops in the previous two seasons. Grapefruit groves and
fruit are in good to excellent condition at this time. The initial Texas
grapefruit forecast is 1.20 million boxes. The Texas citrus industry
continues to recover from devastating freezes during the 1980's. Harvest of
grapefruit will begin soon.

Lemons: The 1992-93 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 863,000 tons, 12 more than
Jast season and 20 percent greater than the 1990-91 crop.

The initial forecast for the California lemon crop is 17.0 million boxes,

13 percent larger than last season and 15 percent greater than two years ago.
The Central Valley crop is showing signs of recovery following the December
1990 freeze. Harvest has already started there as well as in the California
desert.

Arizona's lemon crop is forecast at 5.70 million boxes, 12 percent more than
the 1991-92 crop and 39 percent greater than the 1990-91 season. Fruit
quality has been good and approximately 10 percent of the crop had been
harvested as of October 1.

Tangelos: The 1992-93 Florida tangelo crop is forecast at 3.30 million boxes,
27 percent more than the previous season and 25 percent more than
the 1990-91 season. Fruit is developing normally but sizes are below average.

Temples: The initial forecast for the 1992-93 Florida Temple crop is

2.70 million boxes, up 15 percent from last season and 8 percent
above the production of two years ago. Fruit sizes are small and harvest has
not yet begun.

Tangerines: The 1992-93 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 254,000 tons, down
2 percent from last season but up 53 percent from the 1990-91
season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-17 NASS, USDA


Small Grains ~ Annual Summary: Area Planted,
United States, 1990-92 (Metric Units)

Hectares
Oats : 4,218,080 3,502,190 3,221,740
Barley : 3,326,960 3,618,330 3,157,390
All Wheat : 31,258,660 28,296,330 29,243,710
Winter : 23,046,290 20,665,090 20,662,260
Ourum : 1,444,740 1,316,460 1,014,560
Other Spring : 6,767,630 6,314,780 7,566,890
Rye : 657,620 676,240 640,220

1/ Revised.

Smal] Grains - Annual Summary: Area Harvested,
United States, 1990-92 (Metric Units)

Hectares

Oats : 2,405,880 1,944,940 1,817,870

Barley : 3,046,910 3,404,660 2,957,880

Al) Wheat : 28,038,140 23,351,830 25,255,490
Winter > 20,194,440 15,947,210 16,953,680
Durum : 1,419,250 1,293,790 991,090
Other Spring : 6,424,450 6,110,820 7,310,720

Rye : 151,760 160,260 164,300

1/_ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-4 NASS, USDA



Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/ Net Ibs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; geapereite -CA Desert &
AZ-64, CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons~ 76; tange os, Temples and
kK-Early Citrus- 90; tanger ines- -CA and AZ- 75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Due to the severe freeze of December 1989, TX had no commercial production
for the 1990-91 season.

5/ 1X estimated at 425 tons for 1991-92.

6/ The first forecast for CA grape-fruit "Other Areas" will be as of
April 1, 1993.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-47 NASS, USDA


Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Crop and State peecns-------------+-------~---------~------------
1990 1991 1992
Tons
Grapes (Table Type)
CA 645,000 620,000 650,000
Grapes (Wine Type)
CA 2,195,000 2,195,000 2,300,000
Grapes (Raisin Type) 2/
CA 2,345,000 2,165,000 2,650,000
All Grapes 3
AZ 3/ : 26,000 25,000 20,000
AR 3/ : 5,100 11,000 5,000
CA : 5,185,000 4,980,000 5,600,000
GA 3/ Hy 2,900 3,200 3,400
MI : 46,000 46,000 38,000
MO 3/ : 1,300 3,100 1,500
NY : 144,000 192,000 160,000
NC 3/ : 1,500 2,200 2,100
OH 3/ : 7,700 9,100 9,000
OR 3/ : 7,000 9,600 12,500
PA : 53,000 78,000 70,000
SC 3/ : 400 700 500
WA : 180,000 196,000 216,000
US : 5,659,900 5,555,900 6,138,000

1/_ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons): 1990-120;
1991-630. 2/ Fresh basis. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward
from earlier forecast.

Prunes and Plums: Total Production by State and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

State

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold(tons): 1990-4,600;
1991-300.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-45 NASS, USDA


improved crop prospects. The South Carolina forecast has been reduced
50 percent from last month to 500,000 pounds. Scab and premature nut drop are
contributing factors in the lower forecast.

Hazelnuts: The 1992 hazelnut forecast in Oregon and Washington remains at a
record high 26,000 tons. If realized, this year's production

would be 2 percent more than last season's previous record high crop and

20 percent more than the 1990 crop. Oregon's crop is forecasted at

25,800 tons and Washington production is expected to be 200 tons.

Hazelnut harvest in Oregon started the week of Labor Day and is approximately
60 percent complete. Harvest is two to three weeks ahead of normal. Harvest
conditions have been excellent with little rain and warm temperatures.

Papayas: Fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.89 million pounds for

September, 6 percent lower than August 1992 and 13 percent lower
than September 1991. Year-to-date fresh sales were 25 percent higher than the
same nine-month period a year ago.

Hurricane Iniki highlighted weather conditions during the month. The
hurricane took a northward turn and hit directly on Kauai, the northern most
populated island in the Hawaiian chain on September 11. Damage was severe
with nearly all of the papaya crop on that island destroyed. Although total
acreage on Kauai amounts to only 3 percent of the State total, the damage
represents a major setback for producers there at a time when a treatment
plant for out-of-state papaya shipments was to begin operation. In the area
hardest hit by the hurricane on Oahu, damage to papaya fields was considered
light, mainly affecting older, less productive orchards. Remnants of two
other hurricanes brought heavy rains in the following weeks to the Puna
district, the State's major papaya production area. Increased disease
incidence due to the wetter conditions was reported.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,625 acres in September, unchanged
from last month but 6 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling
2,805 acres, was 8 percent higher than August and 34 percent higher than last
September.

California Fruits and Nuts: Harvest of late maturing stonefruit continued

actively throughout September. Harvest of table
grapes, grapes for raisins, juice, and wine progressed. The almond,
pistachio, and walnut harvests had also progressed well by month's end. Asian
pears, Granny Smith and Gala apples, and pomegranates were being harvested and
packed. Persimmons broke color and by month's end harvest and packing had
begun. Olive harvest was underway. Kiwifruit sized well. Desert lemon
harvest continued as did harvest of avocados and "Other Area" grapefruit. By
month's end, picking of Valencia oranges and figs slowed. Navel oranges in
Tulare County showed signs of sunburn.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-20 NASS, USDA


Barley: Yield and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-92

1990

AZ : 105.0 120.0 105.0 1,575 2,400 2,205

: -0 0 0 13,340 9,440 11,160

0 0 12,000 10,400 9,000

.0 .0 1,890 2,516 2,590

0 0 56,160 59,250 54,000

0 0 924 759 680

0 0 1,020 1,210 1,188

-0 0 4,284 4,992 4,672

-0 .0 2,580 1,419 1,736

-0 0 50,400 43,750 50,625

-0 0 56,580 85,800 52,800

.0 0 880 1,026 1,500

.0 0 675 360 550

.0 -0 372 488 448

0 0 1,590 1,645 1,980

.0 0 129,850 138,670 172,250

.0 0 697 390 396

.0 0 9,100 12,600 9,450

0 0 4,140 4,200 6,390

0 0 676 279 558

-0 -0 24,500 17,940 20,520

.0 0 608 320 270

0 0 8,505 7,885 8,970

0 0 5,280 5,695 7,110

0 0 22,620 37,050 19,800

0 0 2,700 3,312 4,160

0 0 9,250 10,530 11,340

422,196 464,326 456,348

1/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-15 NASS, USDA


kept pastures green but hindered hay, spring wheat, and rice harvests. Short
moisture supplies in the West were further aggravated by September's dry, hot
weather. Frost was reported in early September in Idaho, Montana, and Utah,
hurting crops there. The end of the month saw frost from the northern Great
Plains to New England, which caused limited damage to field crops but hurt
vegetables, Crops in the Corn Belt continued under the threat of the season's
first killing frost. Higher temperatures at the end of the month from the
Rocky Mountains to the Ohio Valley promoted crop maturity.

The continued coolness of the growing season resulted in delayed corn progress
gntering September. Below-normal temperatures prevailed across the Corn Belt
during eptember, further inhibiting development and delaying harvest. Hot,
summer-like weather at the end of the month across the western Corn Belt
allowed crop progress to advance. On October 4, crop progress remained behind
normal throughout the Corn Belt, with the most extreme delays in the
northernmost States. Sixty-six percent (%) of the crop was rated mature in the
17 major States, compared with 9/% last year and 91% average. Only 11% of the
crop was harvested, compared with 46% last year and 33% average.

The beginning of September saw the soybean crop development behind normal in
the northern producing States, but ahead of normal in the Delta. Higher
daytime temperatures toward the end of the month, coupled with earlier near-
freezing temperatures and decreasing hours of sunlight, caused crop
development to reach normal in most areas. Harvest started at the end of the
month in the Delta, as well as in the Midwest, but the pace was behind normal.
Harvest was 21% complete, compared with 37% last year and 33% average.

Winter wheat harvest was virtually complete in the Pacific Northwest and very
near completion in the North Central States entering September, and field
preparation and fall seeding was increasing. Winter wheat seedings progressed
well as excellent planting conditions prevailed through most of the month.
Seeding reached 62 percent in the 19 major producing States by October 4,
compared with 61% last_year and 60% for the 5-year average. Spring wheat
harvest was lagging wel) behind norma) entering September, as the coolness of
the growing season had delated crop maturity. Progress continued to Tag
behind normal throughout the month, but harvest was nevertheless virtually
complete by month's end.

Cotton progress was well behind normal in the southern Plains and was somewhat
delayed in the Southeast at the beginning of September. Cool, damp weather
continued to delay crop development in the Southeast and southern Plains,
while warm temperatures jin the Southwest moved development along. The
Progress of boll opening was behind schedule. As of October 4, boll opening
was 63% completed, compared to 72% last year and 72% average. Harvest was
ahead of normal in the Southwest and behind normal elsewhere. For the week
ending October 4, harvest was 18% completed, compared to 23% completed last
year and 23% average.

Grain sorghum coloring and maturity were behind normal entering September.
Below-normal temperatures in the High Plains impeded crop development.
However, crop prospects there continued to look good. In the South, harvest
progress continued at an increased rate and was ahead of last year and near
the average. The end of the month saw harvest nearing completion in Texas and
the South, and beginning in Kansas and Nebraska. As of October 4, 54% of the
crop was mature, compared to 81% last year and 77% average. Harvest was

32% completed, compared to 52% last year and 40% average.

The arrival of September saw rice harvest beginning in California and.
continuing in the other major rice producing areas. Favorable conditions at
mid-month allowed the harvest to progress ahead of normal. Rainy weather at
the end of the month delayed the completion of harvest in Louisiana. The end
of September saw the harvest completed in Texas and near completion in the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-7 NASS, USDA


All Hay: Production is forecast at 149 million tons, an increase of 1 percent

from the August 1 forecast but a decrease of 3 percent from 1991.
The reduced production from 1991 is the result of a drop in harvested acres.
Farmers report that they will harvest 60.4 million acres, 3 percent below last
year's harvested acres. The forecasted average yield of 2.47 tons per acre is
up 0.04 tons from August 1 and 0.02 tons from 1991.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: The United States production is forecast at

80.1 million tons, 2 percent above August 1
forecast but 4 percent below production of a year ago. The total area cut and
to be cut, at 24.1 million acres, is down 6 percent from 1991. Yields are
expected to average 3.33 tons per acre, up 0.08 ton from the August 1 forecast
and 0.05 ton from 1991.

All Other Hay: Production of al] other hay is expected to total 68.8 million

tons. This level is 1 percent above the August 1 forecast but
1 percent below the 1991 production level. Area harvested is expected to
total 36.3 million acres, 2 percent below last year. Yield per acre is
expected to average 1.89 tons per acre, 0.01 ton better than 1991.

Dry Edible Beans: The 1992 crop of dry beans is forecast at 22.4 million
cwt, 3 percent below the September 1 forecast and

32 percent below last year. Area for harvest, at 1.52 million acres, is down

19 percent from a year ago and yields, at 1,477 pounds per acre, are down

293 pounds from last year. Harvest is active across the country, but late in

most states.

Michigan dry bean harvest was 25 percent complete by October 1 with crop
condition fair to good. Rain and frost have hurt yields. New York beans
continue to deteriorate under cool, wet conditions. North Dakota is nearing
mid~harvest on a crop that has lagged normal all season long. Harvest is

90 percent complete in Nebraska. Yields are Tow due to a stressful growing
season. Wyoming, with harvest two-thirds along, also had weather problems
with severe hail in south-east areas. Colorado made good progress during
September; harvest,was 69 percent done. freezing weather in late August and
wind during September hurt Idaho beans. Warm California weather pushed beans
to an early harvest, two weeks ahead of normal.

Lentils: Production of lentils is estimated at 1.57 million cwt, down

6 percent from last year. Harvested acreage, at 126,000 acres, was
up 4 percent from last year, but the average yield of 1,243 pounds per acre
was down 138 pounds. Growing conditions in both Idaho and Washington were
ry.

Ory Edible Peas: Production of dry peas is estimated at 2.54 million cwt,

down 32 percent from a year ago but 7 percent more than
1990, Harvested acreage is estimated at 155,000 acres, 17 percent below last
year. The average yield of 1,635 pounds per acre fell 352 pounds from a year
earlier.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-13 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Yield and Production, by State
and United States, 1990-92

Production

AL : 35.0 25.0 44.0 6,650 2,750 4,180
AZ : 94.6 99.3 87.5 9,266 6,750 7,700
AR 3 35.0 22.0 46.0 49,000 20,460 39,100
CA : 77.8 81.8 76.6 48,165 36,160 46,365
co : 33.6 31.7 30.9 86,950 74,000 72,619
DE : 51.0 53.0 58.0 3,060 3,551 4,060
FL : 33.0 23.0 42.0 1,815 575 840
GA H 35.0 33.0 46.0 20,650 14,025 16,100
ID : 72.7 70.4 69.4 99,600 81,660 100,000
IL : 48.0 32.0 54.0 88,800 44,800 62,100
IN : 52.0 40.0 50.0 50,440 28,800 22,500
IA : 45.0 34.0 39.0 3,375 1,700 1,560
KS 40.0 33.0 34.0 472,000 363,000 363 ,800
KY 40.0 27.0 55.0 20,000 10,800 23,100
LA 33.0 20.0 36.0 12,870 3,800 6,120
MD 52.0 50.0 58.0 9,880 9,750 12,760
MI 55.0 43.0 56.0 41,250 24,080 35,280
MN 48.4 31.1 49.9 138,620 67,110 139,860
MS 30.0 18.0 42.0 15,600 4,500 10,500
MO 38.0 32.0 48.0 76,000 48,000 64,800
MT : 28.1 36.4 29.7 145,865 159,507 139,581
NE : 38.0 32.0 30.0 85,500 67,200 55,500
NV : 70.0 82.5 80.0 980 660 800
NJ : 43.0 46.0 50.0 1,247 1,196 1,400
NM : 27.0 25.0 34.0 8,100 8,000 11,220
NY H 49.0 49.0 56.0 7,105 5,390 6,160
NC : 41.0 40.0 50.0 22,550 19,200 27,750
ND : 35.3 31.0 41.1 385,220 303,670 469,850
OH : 59.0 49.0 53.0 79,650 52,920 59,095
OK : 32.0 28.0 29.0 201,600 140,000 171,100
OR 3 69.5 §1.9 51.7 57,616 43,900 47,800
PA : 50.0 44.0 55.0 10,500 7,700 10,175
sc 3 38.0 31.0 47.0 14,440 8,525 12,925
sD : 33.8 30.9 32.0 128,004 96,175 119,590
TN : 36.0 24.0 48.0 17,640 7,680 13,440
TX 2 31.0 30.0 34.0 130,200 84,000 129,200
UT : 40.7 38.0 41.2 7,170 5,807 6,256
VA 3 47.0 49.0 57.0 12,220 12,250 15,105
WA 3 60.5 45.9 49.4 150,080 98,600 119,640
Ww : 46.0 45.0 49.0 552 450 539
WI : §2.5 48.2 40.0 10,085 6,118 2,640
WY : 29.0 29.0 26.0 6,113 5,920 5,720

5 3 4 736,428 1,981,139 2,458,830

1/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-17 NASS, USDA


Smal? Grains - Annual Summary: Yield,
United States, 1990-92 (Domestic Units)

Yield

Crop and Unit = 2} ---------+-------------+----------------------------
1991 1/
Oats
Barley
All Wheat
Winter
Durum
Other Spring
Rye
1/ Revised.
Smal] Grains - Annual Summary: Production,
United States, 1990-92 (Domestic Units)
Production
Crop and Unit (tonne ann nnn en -n =e nnn - n-ne nnn enn nn nnn nnn
1990 : 1991 1/ 1992

Oats 357,524 243,451 294,604
Barley 422,196 464, 326 456,348
All Wheat 2,736,428 1,981,139 2,458,830
Winter 2,030,874 1,372,617 1,606,534
Durum : 122,430 103,957 97,196
Other Spring "3 583,124 504,565 755,100
Rye "oy 10,176 9,761 11,952
1/ Revised.
Crop Production - Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-3 NASS, USDA


Lentils: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1990-92 1/

Area Planted Area Harvested

ID : 47.0 50.0 46.0 49.0
WA : 76.0 78.0 75.0 77.0
US :

1991 1992 1990 1991 1992

ID : 1,380 1,200 280 621 588

WA : 1,400 13270 595 1,050 978
us > 1,381 1,243 875 1,671 1,566

Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1990-92 1/ 2/

Area Harvested

State == ---~--------------------------------- 5-2 $= =
1991 1992
1,000 Acres
ID 79.0 55.0
WA 108.0 100.0
US 187.0 155.0
~ Production
ID > 1,900 1,700 770 1,501 935
WA : 2,050 1,600 1,602 23214 1,600
us : 1,987 1,635 2,372 3,715 2,535

1/ Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas.
2/ 1991 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-38 NASS, USDA



Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Area Harvested : Yield Production

1992
1991 1992

State

1991 1992

--- 1,000 Bushels ---
16,800 24,780

- 1,000 Acres -
AL : 210 295

AZ 1/ 5 11 850 15760
AR 1/ 80 30 8,000 93450
CA 115 125 18; 400 20,000
co 840 830 1285520 120,350
CT 2/
DE 169 165 17,914 18,150
FL 1/ mB 110 53100 8;800
550 690 55,000 67,620
1D 1/ 63 40 7875 5,000
IL 1,000 11,000 1,177,000 1,474;000
IN 57550 5,900 510; 600 784; 700
IA 12,200 13,100 1,427,400 1,768,500
KS 650 13700 3250 238,000
KY 13250 1,270 1113250 152; 400
tA y 247 285 203995 31,350
2
D 450 450 42,750 49,500

253,000 252,000
720,000 818,400

150 300 113250 273600
aa 2 ae pe
Ne 7,800 7,900 990;600 1,011,200
Nd T/ 11 80 8,470 8,960
NM 1/ 60 65 9900 10,725
yo seg st
ND 570 650 51,300 48,750
OH 3,400 3,550 326,400 465,050
OK 1/ 85 119 92350 133200
OR T/ 15 15 27190 2;100
PA ; 860 930 64°500 ‘108,810

2
sc 255 345 21,675 29,670
Si) 3,250 3,300 240,500 273,900
IN 510 620 43860 66,340
1X 1,500 1,450 165,000 159,500
} 21 22 ; 3970
* 335 320 28,140 35,200

1 88 88
1
L

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-26 NASS, USDA



Small Grains - Annual Summary: Area Planted,
United States, 1990-92 (Domestic Units)

Area Planted
1991 1/

1,000 Acres

Oats : 10,423 8,654 7,961
Barley : 8,221 8,941 7,802
All Wheat : 77,241 69,921 72,262
Winter : 56,948 51,064 51,057
Durum : 3,570 3,253 2,507
Other Spring : 16,723 15,604 18,698
Rye : 1,625 1,671 1,582
d/ Revised.

Small Grains - Annual Summary: Area Harvested,
United States, 1990-92 (Domestic Units)

Area Harvested

10 0) «Deans
1990 1991 1/ : 1992
1,000 Acres

Oats : 5,945 4,806 4,492
Barley : 7,529 8,413 7,309
All Wheat : 69,283 57,703 62,407
Winter 3 49,901 39,406 41,893
Durum : 3,507 3,197 2,449
Other Spring : 15,875 15,100 18,065
Rye : 375 396 406

1/ Revised.

This report was approved on October 8, 1992, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural
Statistics Board.

ant Sumner kik AUX

Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Daniel A. Sumner Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-2 NASS, USDA


Hazelnuts: Utilized Production, by State and United States,
1990-91 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, Hawaii, by Month, 1991-92

Area Fresh Production

Month : Total in Crop Harvested

Aug : 3,675 3,625 2,080 2,595 3,205 4,135

Sep : 3,840 3,625 2,095 2,805 45460 3,885

Oct 2: 3,925 2,070 5,380

Nov : 3,975 2,060 4,820

Dec : 4,010 2,115 5,675

Jan : 3,955 2,120 5,135
Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-Sep 32,275 40,480
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-50 NASS, USDA


All Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1990- $1 and Forecasted October 1 » 1992

Area Harvested Production
State :

1992 1990 : 1991 : 1992

~-- 1,000 Acres -- --- Tons ----
AL : 780 710 2.10 2.00
AZ : 200 170 7.13 6.96
AR : 1,100 1,100 2.22 2.43
cA : 1,680 1,460 5.13 5.16
co > ~=©1,500 1,420 2.71 2.92
CT : 84 90 2.08 2.19
DE : 20 20 2.65 2.95
FL : 230 250 3.00 3.00
GA : 600 600 3.00 3.00
ID : 1,230 1,120 3.49 3.34
IL : 950 1,000 3.33 3.48
IN : 675 680 2.56 3.07
IA : 1,800 1,800 3.49 3.09
KS : 2,500 2,450 2.01 2.59
KY : 2,300 2,150 2.23 2.32
LA : 300 280 2.50 2.40
ME : 221 230 1.73 1.60
MD : 215 220 2.35 3.34
MA : 103 103 2.17 2.17
MI : 1,450 1,400 3.62 3.55
MN : 2,450 2,200 3.30 3.02
MS : 720 700 2.50 3.00
MO : 3,700 3,600 1.92 1.77
MI 2,400 2,250 2.16 2.08
NE 3,600 3,650 2.08 2.30
NV 475 390 2.44 3.11
NH 76 78 1.99 2.00
NJ 114 117 2.19 2.25
NM 330 320 4.24 4.36
NY 1,950 1,950 2.10 2.45
NC 520 530 2.26 2.14
ND 3,300 3,000 1.45 1.16
OH 1,300 1,400 2.42 3.25
OK 2400 2,350 1.88 2.17
OR 1,075 1,060 2.75 2.63
PA 15890 1,890 2.13 2.69
RI : 7 7 2.29 2.36
sc : 260 230 2.60 2.20
sD : 4,550 4,000 1.77 1.65
TN : 1,650 1,600 1.98 2.16
1TMX : 3,800 3,800 2.55 2.25
UT : 640 630 3.55 3.59
VT : 350 370 2.02 2.24
VA : 1,140 1,190 1.98 2.49
WA : 780 770 3.81 3.85
WV : 520 540 1.69 1.98
WI : 3,300 3,250 2.75 1.96 9,120
WY : 1,340 1,280 1.99 1.77 2,076 23670 2°266
US : 62,575 60,405 2.45 2.47 146,820 153,485 148,936
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-34 NASS, USDA


Tobacco by Class and Type: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992 (continued)
: Area Harvested Yield Production
Class and Type poten et nnn no-no 2-2 2-2-5 ===

1991 : 1992

fb ocesss Acres ---- --- Pounds -~- ~ 1,000 Pounds --

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air-Cured
Type 35, One Sucker

Belt :

KY : 2,500 2,700 2,040 2,150 5,100 5,805

TN : 610 630 2,000 2,100 1,220 1,323

US : 3,110 3,330 2,032 2,141 6,320 7,128
Type 36, Green River :

Belt :

KY : 1,200 1,300 2,020 2,100 2,424 2,730
Type 37, VA Sun-Cured :

Belt :

VA : 100 100 =—-1,560 1,400 156 140

Total 35-37 : 4,410 4,730 2,018 2,114 8,900 9,998

Class 4, Cigar Filler :

Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA 6,700 7,000 2,050 2,050 13,735 14,350

Class 5, Cigar Binder

Class SA, CT Valley

Binder

Type 51, CT Valley

Broadleaf :
CT : 670 700 =«1,750 1,750 1,173 1,225
MA : 110 150 1,860 1,740 205 261

US : 780 850 =—«1,767 1,748 1,378 1,486
Class 5B, WI Binder :
Type 54, Southern WI:

WI : 4,200 4,200 2,210 2,200 9,282 9,240
Type 55, Northern WI:

WI : 3,200 3,200 1,580 1,600 5,056 5,120
Total 54-55 : 7,400 7,400 1,938 1,941 14,338 14,360
Total 51~55 > ©8,180 8,250 1,921 1,921 15,716 15,846
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper :
Type 61, CT Valley :

Shade-Grown :

CT : 1,080 800 1,535 1,470 1,658 1,176

MA : 370 240 «1,540 1,470 570 353
US : 1,450 1,040 1,537 1,470 2,228 1,529
All Cigar Types :
Total 41-61 : 16,330 16,290 1,940 1,948 31,679 31,725
All Tobacco : 763,760 781,570 2,178 2,177 1,663,464 1,701,475
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-43 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1991 and Forecasted October 1, 1992

Area Harvested : Yield Production

: - 1,000 Acres - -- 1,000 Bushels ---
AL : 350 270 23.0 27.0 27.0 8,050 7,290
AR : 3,200 3,150 28.0 30.0 31.0 89,600 97,650
DE : 250 215 35.0 32.0 32.0 8,750 6,880
FL2/;: 43 50 27.0 32.0 32.0 1,161 1,600
GA : 590 640 27.0 27.0 27.0 15,930 17,280
IL : 9,100 9,400 37.5 41.0 42.0 341,250 394,800
IN : 4,400 4,500 39.0 41.0 41.0 171,600 184,500
IA : 8,630 8,050 40.5 42.0 42.0 349,515 338,100
KS : 1,900 1,850 23.0 30.0 31.0 43,700 57,350
KY > 1,130 1,150 32.5 34.0 35.0 36,725 40,250
LA : 1,060 1,150 29.0 28.0 28.0 30,740 32,200
MD : 500 545 34.0 34.0 34.0 17,000 18,530
MI > 1,390 1,440 38.0 33.0 33.0 52,820 47,520
MN : 5,350 5,400 36.5 36.0 36.0 195,275 194,400
MS : 1,800 1,750 26.0 27.0 29.0 46,800 50,750
MO : 4,430 4,250 30.5 34.0 34.0 135,115 144,500
NE : 2,460 2,460 33.5 37.0 38.0 82,410 93,480
NJ 2; : 123 128 36.0 34.0 34.0 4,428 4,352
NC : 1,310 1,350 29.5 28.0 28.0 38,645 37,800
ND : 630 745 30.5 27.0 27.0 19,215 20,115
OH : 3,770 3,680 36.0 37.0 38.0 135,720 139,840
OK 2/— : 235 220 24.0 26.0 26.0 5,640 5,720
PA 2/ 300 285 33.0 40.0 40.0 9,900 11,400
sc : 630 600 22.0 21.0 22.0 13,860 13,200
SD : 2,160 2,250 27.0 30.0 30.0 58,320 67,500
TN : 1,050 950 30.0 31.0 31.0 31,500 29,450
1X : 170 380 31.0 31.0 31.0 5,270 11,780
VA : 500 510 29.0 31.0 31.0 14,500 15,810
WI : 550 710 42.0 37.0 34.0 23,100 24,140
US 58,011 58,078 34.2 35.9 36.3 1,986,539 2,108,187
1/ Revised.

2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 A-29 NASS, USDA


Oats: Yield and Production, by States
and United States, 1990-92

Yield Production

1991 1/ 1991 V/

State :

wore enone Bushels --------- -------- 1,000 Bushels --------
AL 50.0 35.0 60.0 1,250 875 1,500
AR 60.0 56.0 80.0 2,700 1,680 1,600
CA 75.0 75.0 80.0 3,375 3,375 2,800
co 50.0 60.0 60.0 2,250 1,800 2,100
GA 56.0 50.0 67.0 2,240 3,000 3,685
ID 66.0 68.0 72.0 1,980 3,060 1,440
IL 68.0 55.0 61.0 11,560 6,600 7,930
IN 69.0 57.0 70.0 4,830 2,565 2,800
IA 68.0 50.0 67.0 40,800 21,250 25,125
KS 55.0 53.0 56.0 6,600 5,830 7,840
ME 65.0 60.0 75.0 2,015 1,380 1,650
MD 58.0 35.0 66.0 986 420 594
MI 58.0 45.0 70.0 13,050 5,400 8,400
MN 66.0 40.0 70.0 48,180 22,800 35,000
MO 53.0 51.0 54.0 2,226 1,632 2,430
MT : 40.0 55.0 56.0 2,800 6,050 3,920
NE : 48.0 54.0 70.0 13,440 11,880 15,400
NY : 61.0 50.0 70.0 8,235 5,000 7,700
NC : 61.0 55.0 60.0 2,440 2,200 3,000
ND : 51.0 50.0 68.0 30,600 32,500 37,400
OH : 70.0 60.0 71.0 16,100 10,200 12,070
OK : 38.0 38.0 45.0 2,280 1,292 2,250
OR : 102.0 105.0 94.0 4,590 4,725 4,230
PA : 66.0 40.0 67.0 15,840 8,400 13,735
Sc : 57.0 55.0 63.0 1,824 2,200 2,205
SD : 56.0 55.0 66.0 53,200 38,500 42,900
TX : 41.0 40.0 44.0 9,225 7,200 5,720
UT : 68.0 77.0 70.0 816 616 1,050
WA : 66.0 65.0 60.0 2,640 2,600 1,800
WwW + 57.0 45.0 60.0 342 225 360
WI : 67.0 50.0 62.0 47,570 26,500 34,410
WY : 44.0 53.0 52.0 1,540 1,696 1,560
US 60.1 50.7 65.6 357,524 243,451 294,604
1/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-13 NASS, USDA


Sugarcane: Sugarcane production is forecast at 31.0 million tons, 1 percent

above the September 1 forecast and 2 percent above last year's
output. Area for harvest, at 950,000 acres, is virtually unchanged from last
month but 6 percent above a year ago. Yield, at 32.6 tons per acre, is up
0.3 ton from September 1 and down 1.1 tons from a year earlier.

Hurricane Iniki caused damage to a portion of Hawaii's crop. On September 11,
Iniki struck the isTand of Kauai where 25 percent of the State's crop is
produced. Mills and terminals on that island also suffered some damage.

Planting is underway in Florida and Louisiana. The process will be slow in
Louisiana due to bowed stalks caused by Hurricane Andrew.

Harvest is expected to begin later this month.

Grapes: The October 1 U.S. grape forecast is 6.14 million tons, down slightly

from the September 1 forecast but up 10 percent from last year.
California, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington were the only
States with the opportunity to change their September 1 forecast. All other
State forecasts were carried forward from August 1.

California's production forecast of 5.60 million tons is unchanged from last
month but is 12 percent larger than last year. The California raisin variety
grape forecast remains at 2.65 million tons this month, 22 percent above last
season. Virtually all the grapes being dried have been boxed. Raisin type
grapes for fresh or wine use have been harvested.

The California wine variety forecast of 2.30 million tons is unchanged from
last month but is 5 percent larger than both the 1991 and 1990 crops. Harvest
is near completion with a good quality crop reported. Demand for red
varieties is high.

The table grape forecast for California is 650,000 tons, unchanged from a
month ago but 5 percent more than the 1991 crop. Harvest of the late season
varieties in the San Joaquin Valley continues with good quality reported.

The Washington all grape forecast is unchanged from last month at

216,000 tons, up 10 percent from last year. Crop maturity is about two weeks
ahead of normal. Sugar content for both wine varieties and Concord grapes has
been good.

The New York grape forecast is 160,000 tons, unchanged from last month but
down 17 percent from last year. Sugar levels continue to lag normal for this
time of year. Harvest is well underway.

Pennsylvania's grape crop is forecast at 70,000 tons, unchanged from last
month but 10 percent less than last season. Crop maturity is two weeks behind
normal. Sugar levels are below normal. Growers are concerned about cold
weather adversely affecting the crop before harvest.

The Michigan grape forecast of 38,000 tons, is down 5 percent from the
September 1 forecast and down 17 percent from last season. The Concord
harvest had not began by October 1, leaving growers with only two to three
weeks to obtain normal sugar levels at harvest.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B~15 NASS, USDA


Small Grain Annual Summary

The October 1 "Crop Production" report contains the end-of-season acreage,
yield, and production estimates for small grains (wheat, oats, barley, and
rye). These estimates were based in part on a survey of approximately

70,000 farm operators conducted during the first two weeks of September.

Final after harvest objective yield surveys, earlier acreage surveys, and
administrative data were also considered in developing these estimates. The
harvest was not complete when the surveys were conducted. Minnesota, Montana,
and North Dakota re-surveyed producers with unharvested grain as late as the
end of September to obtain after harvest yield data.

Procedures to prepare the annual summary estimates were similar to those used
during the forecast season. National, regional, and State level survey
estimates are reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical data. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather
patterns and crop progress throughout the growing season compared to

istorical years. Each State Statistical Office submitted their analysis of
individual crops to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB used the
survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published estimates.

The smal] grain annual summary estimates historically have been subject to
revisions again in December and were published in the "Crop Production" Annual
Summary. Since late harvesting small grain States now have the opportunity to
re-survey late harvested fields, the intent of the ASB is to not consider
small grain revisions again until October 1, 1993. At that time, most
administrative and marketing data will be available for consideration. The
ASB will utilize a balance sheet considering beginning stocks, production,
exports, processed grain, feed use, and ending stocks to ensure that all
available data have been properly considered and all data have relationships
to the estimates that are reasonable considering history. Revisions following
the annual summary production estimate have generally been less than one
percent and rarely exceed two percent.

Oats: Production of oats in 1992 was estimated at 295 million bushels,

21 percent above the 1991 crop. Yield per harvested acre for grain
averaged 65.6 bushels, 14.9 bushels above last year. Area harvested for
grain, at 4.49 million acres, was down 7 percent from last year and is the
smallest harvested acreage since estimates were first made in 1866. Seeded
area totaled 7.96 million acres, down 8 percent from 1991. This continued the
decline in seeded acreage since the peak in 1955, when 47.5 million acres were
seeded.

Oat production increased 7 percent from the August 1 forecast. A 6 percent
decline in harvested acreage was more than offset by an increase in yield of
8.0 bushels.

Barley: Barley production in 1992 was estimated at 456 million bushels,

2 percent below Jast year's crop of 464 million bushels. Average
yield per acre, at 62.4 bushels, was up 7.2 bushels from the 1991 crop. The
area harvested for grain was estimated at 7.31 million acres, 13 percent less
than last year. Seeded area totaled 7.80 million acres, down 13 percent from
1991,

Production was 6 percent above the September 1 forecast. A slight increase in
harvested acreage coupled with a 3.5 bushels increase in yield, caused the
increased production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-1 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: The 1992 winter wheat crop was estimated at 1.61 billion
bushels, up slightly from August 1 and 17 percent higher than

the 1991 production. The U.S. average yield was 38.3 bushels per acre, up

0.7 bushels from the August forecast and 3.5 bushels per acre better than last

year. Area harvested for grain was placed at 41.9 million acres, off

2 percent from the last forecast but up 6 percent from 1991.

Final harvest of this year's crop was essentially completed by late September.
Most State's average yields were higher than in 1991. This was particularly
true in most Soft Red Winter producing areas, with many Southeastern and
Middle Atlantic States establishing record high yields.

Other Spring Wheat: Production of the 1992 other spring wheat crop was

estimated to total a record high 755 million bushels, up
5 percent from the September 1 forecast and 50 percent more than the 1991
production. The largest harvested area since 1953, coupled with a record high
yield, contributed to the dramatic jump in this year's production. The
previous high production was the 1990 crop of 583 million bushels. Yields
averaged 41.8 bushels per acre, 5.1 bushels better than the previous record
high of 1990 and a 2.1 bushel increase from September 1. Harvested area was
essentially unchanged from the last forecast.

Coot weather delayed crop maturity in the Dakota's, Minnesota, and Montana.
Wet weather then hampered harvest progress, especially in Minnesota. Dry
conditions pushed the Idaho and Washington crops toward maturity ahead of
average. As of September 27, Idaho and South Dakota had finished their
harvest. North Dakota's harvest neared completion by October 4. Both North
and South Dakota's yields are record highs. Wisconsin and Wyoming averages
are also at record high levels.

Durum Wheat: Durum production in 1992 was estimated at 97.2 million bushels,

up 11 percent from the September forecast but down 7 percent
from 1991. Harvested area was 2.45 million acres, up 1 percent from
September 1 but off 23 percent from last year. This was the lowest harvested
area since 1970. The average yield was 39.7 bushels per acre, a record high.
This yield was 3.3 bushels per acre better than the previous record high 1985
crop average and up 3.4 bushels per acre from last month.

Cool, damp weather coupled with a slow maturing crop slowed North Dakota's
harvest progress to 4 weeks behind average. As of September 13, percent
harvested had reached just 39 percent. More favorable weather in late
September allowed for the harvest to move rapidly forward. As of October 4,
Tess than 10 percent remained in the fields.

Rye: The 1992 rye production was estimated at 12.0 million bushels, up

22 percent from last year. The U.S. average yield was 29.4 bushels per
acre, up 4.8 bushels per acre from 1991 and 2.3 from 1990. Area harvested was
406,000 acres, up 3 percent from the previous year. Planted acres were
estimated to total 1.58 million, down 5 percent from a year ago. This is the
smallest planted area on record.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1992 B-3 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Planted and Harvested, by State
and United States, 1990-92

Area Planted 1/ Area Harvested

State 2------------- n-ne nn nnn nnn nn nnn nn nnn nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nn erscssen
1990 1991 2/ : 1992 1990 : 1991 2/ 1992
1,000 Acres
AL : 280 170 140 190 110 95
AZ : 100 70 90 98 68 88
AR : 1,500 1,100 950 1,400 930 850
CA : 680 483 657 619 442 605
co : 2,742 2,638 2,700 2,590 2,336 2,347
DE : 65 70 75 60 67 70
FL : 65 50 45 55 25 20
GA : 650 500 400 590 - 425 350
ID : 1,420 1,340 1,540 1,370 1,160 1,440
IL : 2,050 1,650 1,450 1,850 1,400 1,150
IN : 1,050 850 800 970 720 450
IA : 80 75 70 75 50 40
KS : 12,400 11,800 12,000 11,800 11,000 10,700
KY : 700 640 620 500 400 420
La : 440 300 200 390 190 170
MD : 200 205 230 190 195 220
MI : 770 570 650 750 560 630
MN : 2,960 2,190 2,860 2,865 2,155 2,805
MS : 600 350 300 520 250 250
MO : 2,150 1,650 1,500 2,000 1,500 1,350
MT : 5,745 5,130 §,410 5,185 4,379 4,707
NE : 2,450 2,350 2,350 2,250 2,100 1,850
NV : 16 ll 12 14 8 10
NJ : 36 35 36 29 26 28
NM : 520 550 550 300 320 330
NY : 150 115 120 145 110 110
NC : 600 550 600 550 480 555
ND : 11,350 10,000 11,600 10,910 9,790 11,420
OH : 1,400 1,150 1,230 1,350 1,080 1,115
OK : 7,500 7,400 7,400 6,300 5,000 5,900
OR : 1,010 900 970 968 846 925
PA : 215 180 190 210 175 185
sc : 400 300 285 380 275 275
sD 3 4,140 3,370 4,385 3,789 3,117 3,733
TN : 580 440 410 490 320 280
TX : 6,700 6,200 5,900 4,200 2,800 3,800
UT : 185 165 170 176 153 152
VA : 290 280 290 260 250 265
WA : 2,600 3,700 2,650 2,480 2,150 2,420
Ww : 15 13 15 12 10 11
WI H 205 149 167 192 127 66
WY : 232 232 245 2il 204 220
US > 77,241 69,921 72,262 69,283 57,703 62,407
1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1992 A-16 NASS, USDA