Tobacco:
State,

and United States,

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type.
1993 and Forecasted November 1,

1994

Class and Type

Production

Class 1, Flue-Cured
Type 11, Old and
Middle Belts
N

2 99,
VA : 36,
us : 135,
Type 12, Eastern NC
Belt :
NC > 129
Type 13, NC Border &
SC Belt :
NC 7 34
sc > 62,
US : 86,
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
FL : 7,
GA : 43,
us : 50.
Total 11-14 : 400,
Class 2, Fire-Cured
Type 21, VA Belt
VA 1,
Type 22, Eastern
District
KY : 3,
TMN : 7.
US 2 il,
Type 23, Western :
District
ky 3,
TN
US 4,
Total 21-23 16.
Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-Cured
Type 31, Burley
IN : 8
KY 196,
MO 1/ 2,
NC 2 9,
OH : 9,
TN : 61,
VA 2 oll
WV L/ 7 2,
us : 299,
Type 32, Southern MD
Belt :
MD 29,
PA : 3.
us : 13,
Total 31-32 2 312,

Crop Production
November 1994

Acres
000 ©8800
000 §=—34, 000
000 122,000
.000 117,000
.000 30,000
000 647,000
000) = 77,000
100 7,000
000 38.000
100 = 45,000
100 361,000
200 1,350
500 3,800
700 8,200
200 12,000
650 3,800
600 640
250 4,440
650 «17,790
100 7,100
000 175,000
800 3.300
000 8.500
000 8.500
000 53,000
800 11,000
000 2.000
700 268,400
500 8,500
500 3,600
000 ©6112, 100
700 280,500
A-20

2,100
2,035
2,083

2,325

2,355
2,130
2,219

2,630
2,240
2,295
2,217

1,560

2,430
2,400
2,409

2,880
2,580
2,838
2,457

Pounds 1,000 Pounds
2,425 207.900 213,400
2.300 73,260 78,200
2.390 281,160 291,600
2,400 299.925 280,800
2.350 80,070 70,500
2,300 110,760 108,100
2,319 190,830 178,600
2,400 18,673 16,800
2,160 96,320 82,080
2,197 114,993 98,880
2,354 886,908 849,880
1,600 1,872 2,160
2,450 8,505 9,310
2,500 18,480 20,500
2,484 26,985 29,810
2,750 10,512 10,450
2.550 1,548 1,632
2,721 12,060 12,082
2,476 40,917 44,052
2,150 17,415 15,265
2.450 426,300 428,750
2,200 4,760 7.260
2,100 18,315 17,850
2,250 18.900 19,125
2,250 118,035 119,250
2,300 24,308 25,300
1,800 3,600 3,600
2,371 631.633 636,400
1,450 12,255 12,325
1,950 6,650 7,020
1,599 18,905 19,345
2,338 650,538 745

--continued

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Tobacco: U.S. al] tobacco production for 1994 is forecast at 1.58 billion

pounds, 1 percent above October 1 but 2 percent below a year ago.
Area expected to be harvested totals 674,780 acres, 10 percent below a year ago.
Most of the tobacco crop has been barned with good curing weather in October
reported.

Flue cured production is expected to total 850 million pounds, virtually
unchanged from the October 1 forecast but 4 percent betow 1993. The tobacco
auctions were over by mid-October in Florida and Georgia. where a wet growing
season lowered tobacco yields.

Burley production, at 636 million pounds. is 3 percent above the October 1
forecast and up 1 percent from the previous year. Leaf stripping of tobacco
started slightly behind the average in Kentucky, where a heavy crop with good
color was reported.

Sugarbeets: The November 1 production forecast of 31.7 million tons is

6 percent above the October 1 forecast and 22 percent above last
year’s output. Yields are expected to average 21.9 tons per acre, up 3.3 tons
from last year.

The harvest campaign began in early October but started slowly due to wet field
conditions. A late killing frost prolonged the growing season and delayed the
harvest in the upper Great Plains and Great Lakes region but increased yields.
Heavy rains in June and July did not damage as many acres as originally expected
in the Great Lakes region. The harvest was slightly behind schedule, but by the
end of October most sugarbeets were lifted and delivered to the mills.

Sugarcane: The November 1 forecast, at 31.8 million tons, was up 2 percent from

both the October forecast and last year’s output. Area for harvest.
at 940,300 acres, is down 1 percent from last year. Harvested acres for
November were down 1.400 acres from the October 1 forecast with the decline in
Hawaii and Texas.

With one-quarter of the crop harvested, early sugarcane stubble yields were up
in Louisiana and plant cane yields were expected to be up also. Rainy weather
during October did not adversely affect Florida’s sugarcane yields as much as
originally anticipated. Harvesting in Hawaii was behind schedule in some areas
due to wet weather.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on

November 1, 1994, for the 48 contiguous
States was 78 percent, down 4 points from November 1, 1993, but 5 points above
the 1983-92 average for the date. Conditions were better than last year in
22 States, below last year in 25 States, and unchanged in 1 State.

Pasture and range conditions were reported in the severe drought range in
California. Very poor pasture and range conditions were reported in Idaho,
Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington.

This is the last time Pasture and Range Feed Condition wiil be published in the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-8 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat Planting: Seeding of the 1995 crop equaled average progress on
October 2, then dropped behind average the following
week. Planting was the furthest behind in the Pacific Northwest because rains
were needed. By mid-month. growers in the Pacific Northwest were planting wheat
in dry soit. €mergence trailed average by 5 points in the major States. Dry
conditions were causing thin, spotty stands in Kansas. At month's end,
89 percent of the acreage was seeded, just a paint behind average. Emergence
was 2 points ahead at 76 percent. About 65 percent of the emerged wheat was
rated in good or better condition.

Corn for Grain: Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 72.3 million

acres, up 1 percent from last month and 15 percent above the
flood reduced acreage of 1993. All corn planted is estimated at 79.1 million
acres, up slightly from the June 1 estimate and 8 percent above 1993.

As of October 30, 70 percent of the crop in the 17 major corn States had been
harvested, wel) ahead of the 50 percent harvested last year at this time and
Sligntly above the 6? average for the date. Tne November 1 corn objective yield
data indicates the second highest ear count per acre for the 10 Corn Objective
Yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan. Minnesota. Missouri, Nebraska,
Ohio, South Dakota. and Wisconsin). The ear count remained slightly below the
record final ear count set in 1992. Survey data indicate one of the highest
grain weights per ear. Iowa, South Dakota, and Wisconsin have the highest ear
counts in history.

Sorghum for Grain: The final 1994 production forecast is 622 million bushels,

down 3 percent from October 1 due to acreage changes brought
about by administrative data. This forecast is up 9 percent from the 1993
level. Grain area is now estimated at 8.82 million acres, down 7 percent from
last year. All planted area is 9.72 million acres, down 7 percent. Yields are
forecast at 70.5 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels from last month and will be
the second highest yield on record, if realized.

AS harvest progresses, realized yields have been better than expected in
Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Wrap-up of the
Louisiana harvest showed that earlier yield forecasts were too high. Damp,
humid conditions have slowed harvest progress in the Texas Plains.

Rice: Production of all rice is forecast at 196 million cwt, 2 percent above
the October 1 forecast and 26 percent above 1993. If realized. this
forecast of production would be the highest on record. Yields in Arkansas and
Mississippi are up from last month. California and Texas yields decreased from
October. The U.S. yield, at a record high 5.954 pounds. is up 28 pounds from
last month. Arkansas revised harvested acreage up 20,000 from October.
Louisiana increased their harvested acreage by 5.000 from last month.
Mississippi and Texas both revised their harvested acreage up by 15.000 from
October. Planted and harvested acreage in the six major producing States are
estimated at 3.35 and 3.30 million acres, respectively. State changes to
planted acres can be found on page A-10. These acreage revisions were based on
administrative data. Most of the rice was harvested by the end of October in

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-4 NASS, USDA


Index

Citrus Fruit... eee eee eee ee
Corn Cropping Practices......... cc eee eee eee
Corn for Grain... eee cece eee eee ee
Corn for Grain Row Width... .......... ce eee eee
COLCON, eee eee ene
Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts...............065
Cottonseed... eee eee eee ee
Crop MAPS... icc e eee eee eee eee
Crop Summary... cece cee eee
Hazelnuts... 2. cece eee ee
PaPayaS. 6... eee ete een eee
Pasture and Range Feed Condition...............
Peanuts for NUtS.....,.. 0... e cece cece ence e eee

Potatoes... 6... ee eee eee

Sorghum for Grain... .. 6. cc cee eee
Soybeans for Beans................. 00. e ee eee
Soybeans, Row Spacing.......-..... 2.0.20 c eee eee
Sugarbeets..... tee eee ee
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed................-.4
Tobacco by Class and Type........ 6... cece eee eee

Tobacco by States........ cece eee eee eee

Crop Production
November 1994 B-13

Page
Table Narrative
seeeee A-24 B- 9
wee A-28
beens A-11 B- 4
sees A-29
beeen A-19 B- 6
sees A-32
seen A-18
bees B- 1
seeeeee A- 3
sees A-27 B- 9
Lene eee A-27 B- 9
seeeeee A-26 B- 8
beeeeee A-18 B- 6
beens A-15 B- 5
bees A-33
beet B-11
becca A-14 B- 4
eee eae A-13 B- 4
beeeeae A-16 B- 5
bee eee A-30
sees A-23 B- 8
setae A-23 B- 8
sce A-20 B- 8
bees A-22

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, amd Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production

1993 : 1994 : 1993

1,000 Acres -----7-5- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt ----
AR : 1,230 1,420 5.050 5,600 5,700 62,094 80,940
CA : 437 485 8.300 8,600 8,500 36,271 41,225
LA L $30 620 4,550 4,850 4,850 24,108 30,070
MS : 245 310 5,300 5,740 5,900 12,985 18,290
MO 1/ : 93 112 4,900 4,900 4,900 4,557 5,488
TX : 298 353 5.400 5,900 §,800 16,095 20,474
US : 2,833 3,300 5,510 5,926 §,954 156,110 196.487

l/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All
eee ioe | s—~S
1992 : 128,015 50, 633 1,010 179,658
1993 : 103,064 51,873 1,173 156,110
1994 J/ : 134,185 61,272 1,030 196,487

1/ Indicated November 1, 1994, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-14 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted 1995 on November 1, 1994 1/
Utilized Production : Utilized Production
Crop : Boxes : Ton Equivalent

ccotss- 1,000 Boxes 2/ -

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/ 4/ :
AZ : 700 700 800 26 26 30
CA : 43,800 36,600 37.000 1,642 1,372 1.388
FL : 114,300 107,300 118,000 5,143 4,829 5,310
TX : 450 480 900 20 al 38
US : 159,250 145,080 156,700 6,831 6,248 6.766
Valencia 4/ :
AZ 1,150 1,200 900 43 45 34
CA 23,000 26,000 28,000 863 975 1,050
FL : 72,300 66,900 78,000 3,253 3,010 3,510
TX : 60 70 100 2 3 4
Ya, : 96,510 94,170 107.000 4,16] 4,033 4,598
Al
AZ 1,850 1,900 1,700 69 71 64
CA 66,800 62,600 65,000 2,505 2,347 2,438
FL : 186.600 174,200 196,000 8,396 7.839 8,820
TX : 510 550 1,000 22 24 42
US > 255,760 239,250 263,700 10,992 10,281 11,364
Temples 4/ :
FL 2,500 2,250 2,600 113 102 117
Grapefruit
White Seedless
FL 4/ : 25.700 24,500 25,000 1,093 1,042 1,063
Colored Seediess :
FL 4/ : 27,700 25,500 29,000 1,177 1,084 1,233
Other :
rt 4/ i 1,750 1,050 1,500 74 45 64
Al :
AZ 4/ : 2,150 1.750 1,700 69 59 57
CA 4/ 5/ :
Desert : 3,500 3.300 3,400 112 lil 114
Other Areas : 5.700 5,800 191 194
Total : 9.200 9,100 303 305
FL 47 : 55,150 §1,050 55,500 2,344 2,171 2,360
TX : 1,875 3,000 3,800 75 120 152
US : 68.375 64,900 2,791 2,655
Tangerines 4/ :
AZ : 950 1,000 800 35 37 30
CA : 2,100 2.300 2,200 79 86 83
FL : 2,800 4,100 4,000 133 195 190
Us : 5,850 7,400 7,000 247 318 303
Lemons 4/ i
AZ : 4,400 5,200 4,700 167 197 179
CA : 20,400 20.700 20,500 775 787 779
US : 24,800 25,900 25,200 942 984 958
Tangelos 4/ :
FL 3,050 3,350 3,200 137 150 144
K-Early Citrus 4/
FL 185 210 150 8 9 7
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1994 A-24 NASS, USDA


monthly "Crop Production” report. Beginning in May 1995, the pasture and range
feed condition will be published weekly in the “Weekly Weather and Crop
Bulletin® in a format similar to crop conditions.

Florida Citrus: Groves, trees, and fruit remained in good to excellent

condition. Above average rain fel? in virtually all counties.
A few growers plowed ditches to remove excess water, Fruit drop was above
normal in areas with excessive moisture accumutations but was not a major
problem in atl areas. Nearly ideal growing conditions resulted in abundant new
growth. Natural on-tree coloring for most early types of fruit appears good.
Active harvest of Navels and other early oranges in October moved more than
2.5 million boxes. Over 4 million boxes of seedless grapefruit were harvested.
About 630,000 boxes of tangerines moved in October, far ahead of the past two
years due to a uniform early bloom. Wet conditions limited harvest for fresh
use. Caretakers cut cover crops, sprayed for fal} insect build-ups, and
replanted new trees.

Texas Grapefruit: The 1994-95 Texas grapefruit forecast is 3.80 mildlion boxes
(152 million tons), up 6 percent from Jast month and up
27 percent from the 1993-94 crop. Fruit quality is good and size improved.

Texas Citrus: Harvest progressed in the Rio Grande Valley during October.

Fruit quality remained good and size improved. Isolated high
winds caused some fruit to drop: however, damage was minor. Portions of the
Valley received beneficial rain during October.

Hazelnuts: The forecast of Oregon and Washington hazelnut production increased

5 percent from last month to 20,000 tons, but is down 51 percent
from last year’s record high crop of 41,000 tons. Production is expected to
total 19,900 tons in Oregon and 100 tons in Washington.

Harvest weather was warm and dry until the last week of October when record
rainfall was recorded. By November 1, harvest was nearly complete with good
quality and above average nut sizes reported.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.65 million pounds for

October, 13 percent higher than September but 5 percent lower than a
year ago. Year-to-date fresh sales increased slightly compared with the same
10-month period of 1993.

Weather conditions during October varied. The first and last weeks were fair.
Mid-month conditions were wet with some areas experiencing moderate to heavy
rainfall.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,180 acres, 2 percent lower than
September and 7 percent lower than a year ago. Area harvested, at 1,950 acres.
fell 10 percent from last month and was 21 percent below last October.

California Fruits and Nuts: Harvesting of most fruit and nut crops neared
completion by the end of October. Table, wine,

caisin, and juice grape harvest was active but lost momentum. Raisin

dehydrators reconditioned rain damaged raisins. Almond, walnut, pistachio. and

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-9 NASS. USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested,
United States, 1993-94
(Domestic and Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

Crop Preece csr ce eer ee ree nee eee eee ere re eee eee eee eee eee eee
1993 1994 1993 1994 2/
: 1,000 Acres
Oats : 7,944 6,644 3,798 4,018
Barley : 7,826 7,174 6,791 6,679
All Wheat : 72,158 70,471 62,682 61,651

Winter : 51,627 49,497 43,831 41,365

Durum : 2,241 2,700 2,100 2,639

Other Spring : 18,290 18,274 16,751 17,647
Rye : 1,493 1,603 381 406
Sunflower t 2,776 3,430 2,504 3,291
Flaxseed : 206 189 191 182
All Hay : 60.398 60,315

Alfalfa : 24,762 24, 683

All Other : 35,636 35,632
Dry Edible Beans : 1,849.9 1,971.7 1,600.0 1,819.8
Dry Edible Peas : 149.0 131.0 145.0 128.0
Austrian Winter :

Peas : 13.0 6.9 10.5 4.4
Lentils : 145.0 180.0 143.0 178.0
Potatoes :

Winter : 14.3 12.9 13.6 12.3

Spring : 86.9 91.6 83.8 90.4

Summer 4 94.4 93.9 89.2 89.3
Sweetpotatoes : 83.1 84.5 80.2 81.2
Hops : 43.1 42.4

(Hectares)
Oats : 3,214,860 2,688,760 1,537,010 1,626,040
Barley : 3,167,100 2,903,250 2,748,250 2,702,920
All Wheat : 29,201,620 28,518,910 25,366,780 24,949,540

Winter : 20,892,930 20,030,940 17,737,970 16,740,000

Ourum : 906,910 1,092,660 849,850 1,067,980

Other Spring : 7,401,780 7,995,310 6,778,960 7,141,560
Rye : 604,200 648,720 154,190 164,300
Sunflower : 1,123,420 1,388,090 1,013,340 1,331,830
Flaxseed : 83.370 76,490 77,300 73,650
All Hay : 24,442,470 24,408,880

Alfalfa : 10,020,930 9,988,960

All Other : 14,421,530 14,419,910
Dry Edible Beans 748,640 797,930 647,500 736,450
Ory Edible Peas 60,300 63.010 58.680 51,800
Austrian Winter :

Peas : 5,260 2.790 4,250 1,780
Lentils : 58,680 72,840 57,870 72,030
Potatoes :

Winter : 5.790 5.220 5,500 4,980

Spring : 35,170 37,070 33.910 36,580

Summer : 38,080 38,000 36,100 36,140
Sweetpotatoes 33,630 34,200 32,460 32,860
Hops 17,440 17,160

l/ Harvested for principal use of each crop. ie., grain, beans. nuts, etc.
2/ 1994 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-5 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
{LONG TERM, PALMER)
October 29, 1904
1G)
y/ A yy LAST CHART FOR THIS SEASON
Y, 7
yarn: “7
(7 Of iextuen @
f MOLT MOIST
fa ‘ em °
{ MODERATE MOIST MODERATE
\ x Aitornahs y}
| _
\ \ YY raw “| bpe
|MODERATE] C7
a4 ~~
‘
EXTREME] \ MOIST ‘MOIST, CMoDERaTe
- os
i; “  \
MODERATE. \ MOWr
\ MOIST
\
1
NOAMUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on preliminary reports:

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months. years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration,

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness On water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers. reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) Status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-2 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,

and United States, 1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994 (continued)

Class and Type

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3B. Dark
Air-Cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt
KY
TN
us
Type 36, Green River
Belt
KY

Belt
VA
Total 35-37

Type 37, VA Sun-Cured :

Class 4, Cigar Filler :

Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder :

Class 5A. CT Valley
Binder
Type 51. CT Valley
Broadleaf
CT
MA
US
Class 5B, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI
WI
Type 55, Northern WI
WI
Total 54-55
Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper

Type 61. CT Valley
Shade-Grown
CT
MA
us
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61

All Tobacco

Acres
2.700 2.500
640 600
3.340 3,100
1,450 1,300
100 80
4.890 4,480
6.500 6.000
650 620
170 200
820 820
2,900 2,000
1.900 1,000
4.800 3.000
5.620 3.820
850 910
230 280
1,080 1.190
13,200 11,020
: 747,540 674,780

Pee

370
125
323

+320

040
296

100

875
060
913

620
340

509
568

405
495
1424

818

Pounds

500
150
432

500

400
433

.100

860
850
857

100
600

933
917

510
530
514

973

1,000 Pounds

6,399
1,360
7,759

3.364

104
11,227

13,650

1,219
350
1,569

4,698
2,546

7,244
8,813

1,194
344
1,538

24,001

»345 1,613,591

10,

12,

250
290
540

250

112
902

600

153

370

523

200
600

800
323

2374

L/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production
November 1994

A-21

Agricultura) Statistics

NASS,

Board
USDA


Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1993-94

Area Fresh Production

Harvested

-- 1,000 Pounds --
Sep : 3,450 3,255 2,505 2,160 5,230 4,095

Oct : 3,435 3,180 2,455 1,950 4,875 4,645

Nov : 3,430 2,530 5,720

Dec : 3,365 2,365 5,625

dan : 3,345 2,310 5.465

Feb : 3.320 2,300 4,380
Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-Oct 46,855 46.940

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1994 A-27 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted November 1

-- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- -------

CA 1 136.

0 141.0 26.0 29.0 4,230 3.536 4,089
co : 40.0 43.2 23.1 21.8 954 924 942
ID : 204.0 201.0 23.2 26.0 4,900 4,733 5.226
MI : 187.0 189.0 17.0 16.0 3,098 3,179 3,024
MN : 379.0 412.0 14.1 21.0 6,845 5,344 8,652
MT : 64.1 54.1 21.6 24.0 1,272 1,169 1,298
NE : 79.6 74.5 18.5 19.5 1,387 1.473 1,453
ND : 190.9 203.0 16.3 20.8 3,388 3,112 4,222
OH : 17.5 15.0 12,1 16.5 328 212 248
OR : 15.2 16.2 24.5 27.0 394 372 437
TTM : 39.2 24.5 21.0 23.0 838 823 564
WY : 64.4 62.0 19.7 18.0 1,437 1,269 1,116
Oth :
Sts 2/ : 2.5 11.7 41.2 37.0 72 103 433
US : 1,409.4 1,447.2 18.6 21.9 29,143 26,249 31,704

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA. Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

State +--+ -- 22-222 eee eee eee ee ee ee ee ee nee eer nee ee eee e ee
1993 1994 1992
: -- 1,000 Acres - ---- Tons ---- 0 ------
FL : 444.0 445.0 34.1 35.4 14,707 15,152 15,750
HI : 69.9 66.5 80.2 84.5 5,622 5,606 6,619
LA : 390.0 385.0 22.8 24.0 8.706 8,904 9,240
TM : 44.4 43.8 32.4 27.5 1,328 1,439 1,205
US : 948.3 940.3 32.8 33.8 30.363 31,101 31,814
i/ Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1994 A-23 NASS, USDA


October Crop Progress: A pair of active jet streams kept stormy weather in

place across the Northwest and the Southeast, resulting
in drought relief and flooding problems, respectively. In the interior West,
precipitation associated with the polar front jet was particularly helpful in
easing drought from the central Rockies to the northern High Plains. and from
the Cascades westward. Dryness adversely affected winter wheat planting and
emergence in the Northwest until widespread precipitation arrived towards
month's end. Areas from California southward remained between jet streams, and
thus drier than normal, during the month. Similarly, the Northeast was affected
neither by the polar front from which steered storms northeastward into central
Canada, nor by the sub-tropical jet which spent its energy on the Guif Coast and
Southern Atlantic States. Southeastern Texas endured severe flooding just after
mid-month, while northeastern Texas and the coasta) Southeast experienced
Sporadic flooding of a lesser degree.

With jet-stream energy surging into the Northwest and buckling southeastward,
cool weather prevailed west of the Rockies, with monthly temperatures up to

4 degrees F below normal. In the Northeast, frequent doses of high pressure
provided mild days and fair. cold nights. Between the Rockies and the
Appalachians, there was an unseasonable absence of cold air, with temperatures
up to 5 degrees F above normal in the upper Midwest, The southern two-thirds of
the Corn Belt escaped a freeze until October 24 or later, and a record-late
first freeze was noted in parts of Minnesota and North Dakota.

General Crop Comments: Warm weather and a late kilting freeze in the central
United States extended the growing season for the row
crops and helped producers realize record yields. Starting in early October,
harvest and fieldwork were delayed by storm systems that generated heavy showers
across the southern Great Plains. The harvest progress for soybeans and cotton
started the month ahead of normal, at close to one-quarter complete. Dry soil
conditions in the Pacific Northwest slowed the seeding of small grains. In
Washington State. producers stopped waiting for rain and planted winter wheat
with the hopes that precipitation would arrive soon. Warm weather in the
central Great Plains spurred sorghum development, while farmers in the Midwest
shifted their effort from the corn harvest to soybeans. Later in the month,
heavy rains in Georgia delayed harvest activity and wet weather brought the
threat of boll rot to the cotton crop. Showers in the Pacific Northwest reduced
drought-stress for small grains. A killing-frost and freezing temperatures
dried-down the corn crop in the northern Corn Belt, where producers approached
the half-way mark for the soybean harvest. By mid-month warm, dry weather
provided ideal harvest conditions across the Midwest and record yields and the
fast pace of harvest activity created grain storage shortages. Heavy rains and
flooding in the Lower Mississippi Valley slowed harvesting and winter wheat
planting activity and raised concern for the cotton quality. Later in the
month, autumn weather finished drying-down the row-crops and encouraged
fieldwork and harvest activity in the Midwest. Farmers took advantage of a late
freeze in the Great Lakes region with combines running from dawn to dusk. By
month's end, dry soil conditions in the central Great Plains raised concern for
some emerged wheat fields. Rain in the Northwestern States enhanced winter
wheat germination prospects. Cotton producers in the Southeastern States
started to made good harvest progress, but finished the month behind average.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-3 NASS, USDA


Peanuts for Nuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

1993: 1994 : 1999 :-+e-s2eeeeeeeee eee ° 4993 «=: ~—1994

1,000 Acres Sorenscece ---- 1,000 Pounds ---
AL L 239.0 220.0 1,980 2,000 2,000 473,220 440,000
FL : 84.0 75.0 2,320 2,200 2,700 194,880 202,500
GA : 697.0 640.0 1,985 2,800 2,800 1,383,545 1,792,000
NM : 21.8 23.0 2,600 2,750 2.750 56,680 63,250
NC : 143.0 150.0 2,095 2,900 3,050 299,585 457,500
OK : 102.0 98.0 2,290 2,450 2,450 233,580 240,100
Sc : 14.0 14.5 1,750 2.750 2.900 24,500 42,050
TX : 295.0 285.0 1,865 2,200 2,200 550,175 627,000
VA : 94.0 92.0 1,875 2.900 3,100 176,250 285,200
URS : 1,689.8 1,597.5 2,008 2,543 2,598 3,392,415 4,149,600

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Cottonseed: Production, United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

1994 2/

l/ Revised.
2/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-18 NASS, USDA


Selected Crops: Area Planted by State
and United States, 1992-94

: Upland : :

State : Cotton : Peanuts : Rice
1,000 Acres

AL 470.0 *224.0
AZ *313.0
AR *980.0 *1,440.0
CA *1,100.0 *490.0
FL 69.0 83.0
GA *885.0 *655.0
KS 1.6
LA : 900.0 *625.0
MS : 1,330.0 *315.0
MO *352.0 120.0
NM *58.0 23.0
NC *487.0 151.0
OK 390.0 *100.0
Sc 221.0 15.0
TN *590.0
TX 5,700.0 290.0 *355 0
VA 42.2 93.0
Year United States
1992 12,976.6 1,689.6 3,176.0
1993 13.248.3 1,733.5 2,920.0
1994 13,888.8 1,634.0 3,345.0

* Updated from “Acreage” released June 30, 1994; Cotton updated from August
“Crap Production" released August 11, 1994.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-10 NASS, USDA


Fall Potatoes: Major Varieties as Percent of Planted Acres.
Selected States and United States, 1994 Crop 1/

State : Percent :: State : Percent :: State : Percent
and : Of Plo:: and : of Plo:: and :
Varieties : Acres :: Varieties : Acres o:: Varieties

R Burbank : 27,

Centennial R : 30.3 6 Atlantic 9
R Norkotah : 26.6 Nortand : 17.8 Snowden 7
R Nugget : 23.1 Norchip : 9.5 Katahdin 0
R Burbank : 7.6 Goldrush 0 Norwis 6
Sangre 3.8 Snowden 7.7 Superior 7
Ranger R 2.8 Pontiac 6.6 Norchip 6
Century R 2.5 Frito-Lay: 5.6 Kanona .2
Monona : 3. Somerset 8
1D : Kennebec : 3.0 Allegeny 9
R Burbank : 84.8 Ranger R 2.3 Norland 3
Shepody : 8.6 nt
Ranger R : 2.7 L :: WA
R Norkotah 2.4 Norwis : 28.6 ::  R Burbank 59.5
Monona : 10.3 R Norkotah : 15.5
ME : Snowden : 9.5 Shepody : 9.3
Superior : 17.2 Superior 8.8 Ranger R : 8.2
R Burbank : 16.3 Norchip 6.8 ta Soda : 1.9
Shepody : 12.2 Atlantic 4.93: :
Atlantic : 9.6 Kanona : 4.7 :: WI :
Frito-Lay : 7.6 Allegany t 4.6 :: R Burbank : 27.5
Ontario 6.5 Frito-Lay: 3.6 R Norkotah : 20.6
Snowden 4.7 Sunrise 3.4 Gotdrush : 13.7
Katahdin 3. Castile 2. Snowden : 13.2
Goldrush : 3.4 Katahdin 1.8 Norland : 11.3
Norwis : 3.4 Yukon Gold 1.5 Atlantic : 5.1
Ranger R : 3.0 : Superior : aa
R Norkotah 2.1 : : Ranger R : 2.5
Allegany 1.0 Norchip : 23.1
Monona 1.0 R Burbank: 22.6
Nortand : 10.3 R Burbank: 49.5
MI : Snowden 7.4 R Norkotah : 7.4
Snowden : 39.1 Frito-Lay : 6.5 Shepody 6.7
R Burbank : 16.7 Shepody : 5.3 Snowden 4.6
Atlantic : 8.7 Goldrush : 4.8 Norchip 3.6
Frito-Lay 3 Monona 4.3 Norland : 3.2
R Norkotah 5.5 La Soda 3.6 Ranger R : 2.9
Ontario 5.4 R Norkotah 2.8 Goldrush 2.3
Onoway : 4.9 Frito-Lay 2.1
Goldrush : 2.4 : Centennial R: 2.0
Norland : 2. R Burbank: 55.6 Superior 1.9
Superior 2.2 Shepody : 19.0 Atlantic 1.8
Yukon Gold 0.9: R Norkotah : 14.7 R. Nugget 1.5
: Ranger R : 2.5 Katahdin 1.2

l/ The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts potato objective
yield surveys in 11 major fall States. These 11 States accounted for
94 percent of the 1994 U.S. fall production. All producing areas of each
State are represented in the sample in proportion to planted acreage of
potatoes. Variety information in the table above is derived from reported
data and is intended to provide current information on varieties but are
not designated as official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-33 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Row Spacing - 1994

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted soybean objective yield
surveys in 8 States in 1994. Plots were randomly selected from a scientifically
drawn sample of soybean fields, which were visited monthly from about August 1
through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements. Sample data and
the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the following table are
not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates but are intended to show
trends in Soybean production practices.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet
Selected States, 1990 - 94 1/ 2/

State : : : :
and : 1990 «=: (1992 1992: «1993: 1994
Month : : : :
wee Number of Pods a

AR Sept a/—: NA NA NA NA NA
Nov : 1.750 1,336 1,713 1,399 1,782
Final : 11588 1.327 1.705 1/327

TL Sept 1,838 1,574 1,698 1,937 1.745
Nov : 1,460 1,450 11503 1,712 1.639
Final : 15460 1.450 1,502 1,701

IN Sept : 1,472 1,535 1,623 1,938 1,850
Nov : 11400 1,508 11543 1,703 11574
Final : 11396 1,508 11543 1,703

IA Sept : 1,462 1,406 1,501 1,336 1,887
Nov : 1321 11451 11464 11340 1,820
Final : 1,330 1,456 1473 1340

MN Sept : 1,628 1,400 1,431 1,037 1,678
Nov : 1454 11478 1367 1106 11496
Final > 21454 1.476 1,367 15105

MO Sept : 1,298 1.239 1,682 1,493 1.470
Nov : 1,301 12416 1,607 1.727 11643
Final [1.318 11426 1,602 1,699

NE Sept : 1,535 1.487 1,517 1,469 1.676
Nov : 15320 11423 11504 12414 1,826
Final : 1,320 11422 1.509 11445

OH Sept > 1,389 1,426 1,462 1,617 1,950

: 1.394
12404

l on pod counts plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ Final pod counts will be published in January.
3/ Not available due to plant immaturity.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-30 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States.
1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994
(Metric Units)

Production

Crop Saale

Metric Tons

Corn for Grain 6.32 8.68 161,146,170 243,910,670 254,273,590
Sorghum for Grain 3.76 4.42 14,424,490 16.266.400 15,787,590
Rice 6.18 6.67 7,081,030 8.722,630 8,912,500
Soybeans for Beans 2.19 2.79 50,857,080 66,898,170 68,651,930
Peanuts for Nuts 2.25 2.91 1,538,770 1,864,750 1,882,230
All Cotton 0.68 0.78 3,512,680 4,202,650 4,235,300
Upland 0.67 0.77 3,432,270 4,123,180 4,158,010
Amer -Pima + 1.05 1.10 80,410 79,470 77,290
Cottonseed : 5,754,450 6,806,150 6,865,120
Potatoes :
Fall : 38.27 39.01 17,505,720 18,705,380
Total : 36.48 37.33 19.445,190 20,797,710
Tobacco 2 2.42 2.63 731,910 708,990 717,720
Sugarbeets 2 41.75 49.11 23,812,690 27,200,120 28,761,380
Sugarcane for +
Sugar and Seed 2 73.52 75.84 28,214,350 28.169,900 28,861,180
Hazelnuts : 37,190 17,240 18,140
Crop Productton Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1994 A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States, 1993-94 (Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production
Crop and Unit fee ee ee eee

Oats Bu: 84.

4 57.2 206,428 229.717
Barley ” : §8.9 56.2 400,225 375,318
All Wheat . : 38.3 37.6 2,402,830 2,319,700

Winter “ : 40.3 40.2 1,768,383 1,664, 883

Durum . : 33.6 35.7 70,476 94,097

Other Spring " : 33.7 31.8 563.971 560,720
Rye . : 27.1 27.4 10.340 11,138
Sunflower Lb: 1,037 1,384 2,596,716 4,553,980
All Hay Ton : 2.46 2.55 148,854 153,885

Alfalfa “ : 3.27 3.34 80,878 82,477

All Other . : 1.91 2.00 67,976 71,408
Ory Edible Beans Cwt : 1,365 1,566 21,842 28,507
Dry Edible Peas 2/ . : 2.270 1,762 3,292 2,255
Austrian Winter :

Peas 2/ . : 1,476 1,091 155 48
Lentils 2/ . : 1,403 1,043 2,006 1,856
Potatoes :

Winter ws 188 193 2,552 2,372

Spring . : 235 250 19,654 22,559

Summer. . : 230 237 20,552 21,197
Hops Lb: 1,767 1,707 76,143,7 72,358.2
Apples, Comm’ . : 10,722,800 10,862,500
Peaches “ot 2,656,600 2.460, 800
Pears Ton : 949.2 980.0
Grapes “ : 6,024.2 6,125.6
Sweet Cherries . : 168.6 168.2
Tart Cherries Lb: 323,400 256,800
Apricots Ton : 96.4 137.8
Olives (CA) . : 122.0 105.0
Dried Prunes (CA) " : 121.0 175.0
Prunes and Plums :

(Exel CA) ° : 28.2 40.0
Almonds (CA) Lb: 490,000 640,000
Pecans wo: 365,000 198.000
Walnuts ¢CA) Ton : 260.0 220.0
Citrus Fruits 3/ : 1993-94 1994-95

Oranges Ton : 10,281 11,364

Lemons “oy 984 958

1/ 1994 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ Yield in pounds.

3/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-6 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Type, State.
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production 1/
i\) | tlhe eee eee eo

and :
1993 1994 1993 :------------------- : 1993 1994

State

L 430.0 460.0 524 741 751 469.0 720.0
AZ 315.0 312.0 1,204 1,169 1,177 790.0 765.0
AR : 970.0 970.0 541 800 841 1,094.0 1,700.0
CA : 1,045.0 1,095.0 1,340 1,337 1,271 2,918.0 2,900.0
FL 3/ 53.5 68.0 696 706 706 77.6 100.0
GA 600.0 875.0 586 750 768 733.0 1,400.0
KS 3/ 1.4 1.1 206 480 480 0.6 ll
LA 875.0 885.0 606 814 814 1,105.0 1,500.0
MS 1,300.0 1.310.0 572 788 806 1,550.0 2,200.0
MO 335.0 345.0 539 727 807 376.0 580.0
NM 48.7 52.0 769 742 738 78.0 80.0
NC 385.0 486.0 535 680 71 429.0 720.0
OK 350.0 365.0 370 316 309 270.0 235.0
Sc : 198.0 216.0 495 711 756 204.0 340.0
TN : 615.0 585.0 425 656 656 545.0 800.0
1X : 5,050.0 5,200.0 484 462 462 5,095.0 5.000.0
VA 3/ 22.8 41.7 634 650 650 30.1 56.5
US 212,594.4 13,266.8 601 686 691 15,764.3  19,097.6

Amer-Pima :
AZ : 56.9 48.0 734 800 800 87.0 80.0
CA 4/ t 91.0 79.8 1.132 1,263 1,203 214.6 200.0
NM t 11.0 11.8 816 814 814 18.7 20.0
1X 30.0 34.0 784 776 776 49.0 55.0
US 4/ 188.9 173.6 938 1,009 982 369.3 355.0

All
AL 430.0 460.0 524 741 751 469.0 720.0
AZ 371.9 360.0 1,132 1,120 1,127 877.0 845.0
AR > 970.0 970.0 541 800 841 1,094.0 1,700.0
CA 4/ : 1,136.0 1,174.8 1,324 1,332 1,267 3,132.6 3,100.0
FL 3/ : 53.5 68.0 696 706 706 77.6 100.0
GA > 600.0 875.0 586 750 768 733.0 1,400.0
Ks 3/: 1.4 1.1 206 480 480 0.6 1.1
LA > 875.0 885.0 606 814 814 1,105.0 1,500.0
MS 1,300.0 1,310.0 $72 788 806 1,550.0 2,200.0
MO 335.0 345.90 539 727 807 376.0 580.0
NM 59.7 63.8 777 754 752 96.7 100.0
NC 385.0 486.0 535 680 TAL 429.0 720.0
OK 350.0 365.0 370 316 309 270.0 235.0
sc : 198.0 216.0 495 711 756 204.0 340.0
IN > 615.0 585.0 425 656 656 545.0 800.0
TX : 5,080.0 5,234.0 486 464 464 5,144.0 5,055.0
VA 3/ : 22.8 41.7 634 650 650 30.1 56.5
US 4/ 12,783.3 13,440.4 606 690 695 16,133.6 19,452.6

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

4/ 1993 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1994 A-19 NASS. USDA


Selected Crops: Area Planted by State
and United States, 1992-94

State Corn Sorghum Soybeans
1,000 Acres

AL : 300 27 320

AZ : 23

AR : 100 250 *3,450

CA : 400

co : 1,000 200

CT : 46

DE 155 225

FL : 120 50

GA : 600 65 520

10 : 100

IL : *11,600 190 9,500

IN : *6,100 4,700

IA : *13,000 *8 800

KS : *2,280 3,000 *2,150

kY : 1,350 23 1,150

LA : 300 120 1,200

ME : 38

MD 460 560

MA 31

MI 2,500 1,550

MN 7.000 5.700

MS 330 75 2,000

MO 2,400 *570 4,600

MT 70

NE *8, 600 1,350 2,900

NH 19

NJ : 100 150

NM : 125 190

NY : 1,110

NC : *1,000 35 1,400

ND : *800 *640

OH : 3,750 3,900

OK 200 320 300

OR 50

PA 1,400 320

RI : 2

SC : 370 24 640

So : 3,800 250 2,450

TN : 670 30 1,100

TX : 2,100 *3.000 220

UT : 67

VT 91

VA : 500 540

* Updated from “Acreage” released June 30. 1994.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-9 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/ Net Ibs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA
Desert & AZ-64 in 1992-93 and earlier, 67-starting in 1993-94.
CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus &
-Temples-90; tangerines-CA and AZ-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

eg

The first forecast for California grapefruit “Other Areas“ will be as of
April 1, 1995.

U.S. Grapefruit Production
1986-1994 and forecasted 1995

Million Tons

2.7 2.7
2.6 2.6

24

20 —

2.0 + we . ft NNN eee

NA

T T T u q T T qT T qT
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Excluding California "Other Areas’.

1.6

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-25 NASS, USDA


National

Crop Agricultural

Statistics

Production Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released November 9, 1994, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts
refer to November 1, 1994,

Corn Up 4 Percent
Soybeans Up 3 Percent

Corn production is forecast at a record high 10.0 billion bushels, up 4 percent
from the October 1 forecast and 58 percent above the 1993 crop. Based on
conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average a record high

138.4 bushels per acre, up 4.6 bushels from last month and 7.0 bushels above the
previous record yield set in 1992. Planted acreage was revised to 79.1 million
acres, up 330,000 acres from the previous estimate. Acreage for harvest as
grain is estimated at 72.3 million acres, up 590,000 acres from last month.
Planted acreage changes were based on new data available from the Agricultural
Stabilization and Conservation Service.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.52 billion bushels. up

3 percent from the October 1 forecast and 35 percent above 1993. Yield is
forecast at a record high 41.5 bushels per acre, 1.0 bushels above October 1 and
8.9 bushels above 1993. The previous record high yield of 37.6 was set in 1992.
Harvested acreage is estimated at 60.8 million acres, up 120.000 acres from the
October estimate. Planted acreage is estimated at 61.9 million acres, up
120.000 acres from the previous estimate. Acreage changes were based on new data
available from the Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
information call (202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (11-94)


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin. sex, religion. age,
disability. political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print. audiotape, etc.) should contact the

USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,
20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-15 NASS, USDA


U.S. Corn Production
1985 - 1994

Billion Bushels

“(Ge se ace. So
6.00} 1 NIN 22 NY SASS TWN,
ma VG NI VN N N
IVI VIIINIVM

0.00
8 86 87 8&8 8&9 90 91 92 93 94

Year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-12 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels ---
AL : 250 260 55.0 95.0 95.0 13,750 24,700
AZ 1/ : 10 13 160.0 170.0 170.0 1,600 2,210
AR 1/ : 90 90 91.0 120.0 120.0 8,190 10,800
CA : 170 180 165.0 170.0 170.0 28,050 30,600
to yy t 825 900 120.0 145.0 145.0 99,000 130,500
DE : 160 152 85.0 110.0 115.0 13,600 17,480
FL V/ : 100 80 65.0 75.0 75.0 6,500 6.000
GA : 560 540 70.0 106.0 106.0 39,200 57,240
ID 1/ : 45 30 125.0 135.0 135.0 5,625 4,050
IL : 10,000 11,450 130.0 147.0 155.0 1,300,000 1,774,750
IN > 5.400 5,950 132.0 137.0 141.0 712,800 838,950
TA : 11.000 12.700 80.0 150.0 152.0 880,000 1,930,400
KS : 1,800 2,140 120.0 140.0 150.0 216,000 321,000
KY : 1,220 1,220 104.0 116.0 125.0 126,880 152,500
ia V : 210 280 95.0 110.0 110.0 19,950 30,800
MD 2 : 420 380 78.0 105.0 114.0 32,760 43,320
MA 2/ :
MI 2,150 2,150 110.0 112.0 117.0 236,500 251,550
MN 4,600 6.400 70.0 140.0 145.0 322,000 928,000
MS 1/ 190 280 78.0 102.0 102.0 14,820 28,560
MO 1,850 2,300 90.0 118.0 120.0 166,500 276,000
MT 1/ 8 25 105.0 110.0 110.0 840 2,750
NE > 7,550 8,200 104.0 138.0 138.0 785,200 1,131,600
NH 2/
NJ / : 80 83 96.0 110.0 110.0 7,680 9,130
NM 1/ : 85 85 165.0 165.0 165.0 14,025 14,025
NY : 580 540 105.0 112.0 115.0 60,900 62,100
NC : 850 900 65.0 90.0 90.0 55,250 81,000
ND : 365 500 45.0 90.0 100.0 16,425 50,000
OH : 3,280 3,500 110.0 134.0 139.0 360,800 486,500
OK i/ : 140 180 110.0 100.0 100.0 15,400 18,000
OR 1/ : 19 26 155.0 170.0 170.0 2,945 4,250
Rt 2 : 970 1,000 96.0 116.0 118.0 93,120 118,000
sc 240 345 40.0 75.0 75.0 9,600 25,875
SO 2,550 3,300 63.0 96.0 108.0 160.650 356.400
TMN 550 570 84.0 120.0 120.0 46,200 68,400
TX 1,850 1,950 115.0 117.0 117.0 212,750 228,150
vt 7 22 24 130.0 130.0 130.0 860 120
VA 285 340 60.0 94.0 100.0 17,100 34,000
WA 1/ 80 95 190.0 180.0 180.0 15,200 17.100
WY 1 43 40 85.0 90.0 90.0 655 600
WI 2,350 3,100 92.0 128.0 139.0 216,200 430,900
WY 1/ 44 50 80.0 120.0 120.0 520 000
US 62,991 72,347 100.7 133.8 138.4 6,344,045 10,010,310

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-11 NASS, USDA


Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between October 22 and November 2 to gather information on
expected yield as of November 1. The objective yield surveys for corn.
soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually
account for at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected
fields and plots within fields are surveyed each month. The items counted
within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In
all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that
provide information to forecast the number of pods. ears, or bolls and their
weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a
projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted
to obtain a net yield. The plots are re-visited each month until) crop maturity
when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested
the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting
Toss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 20,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors.
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
November 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The November 1 production forecast will not be revised:

instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season followed by end-of-season estimates. At the end of the marketing
year, administrative records and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover
Stocks, production, exports, processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions
are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be
revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that
the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the November 1
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical
Measure based on past performance. is computed. The deviation between the
November 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1974-1993 20-year period is computed: then the square root of the
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate. assuming that factors affecting
this year’s forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 8-11 NASS. USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Bol) Counts

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield
surveys in 6 States which account for about 80 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton
production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton
fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1
through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts
shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not
official estimtes of NASS.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September and November 1990-1994,
and Final, 1990-1993 1/

Arizona Arkansas
Year Sep Nov Final Sep Nov Final
1990 : 1.250 1,239 1,162 846 685 669
1991 : 1,161 1,161 1,083 1,010 797 782
1992: 1,112 1,062 1,013 1,076 822 817
1993. : 1,120 1,158 1,082 859 769 753
1994 : 1,239 1,227 1,019 813
California Louisiana

1990: 875 855 843 866 882 888
1991: 909 826 814 881 813 770
1992: 839 841 819 882 858 875
1993: 930 839 839 746 662 661
1994: 828 805 . 808 747

1990 : 824 695 693 501 491 489
1991: 890 734 726 466 449 430
1992: 896 713 708 432 484 489
1993: 697 629 608 505 480 489
1994: 864 761 515 484

1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter). large unopened bolls
(at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and
burrs. per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls.

2/ Revised from September.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-32 NASS, USDA


Measured Row Spacing of Soybeans: Percentage Distribution And
_ Average Width For Selected States, 1991-94 1/

Poros secs essences ese r cesses sere cca esses ce ee : Average
10.1- : 18.6- : 28.6- : 34.6 & : Row
: : : : Greater : Width 2/

AR 114 26.0 6.9. 22.4 25.2
134 19.1 7.5 25.5 28.0

125 24.2 12.5 23.8 25.8

127 30.7 10.8 16.7 14.7

IL 196 23.6 9.2 3.3 48.7
176 33.5 7.4 6.3 41.1

179 38.0 6.7 3.9 40.8

185 45.6 11.4 3.0 34.6

iN 142 32.4 12.8 4.6 44,5
151 35.7 15.3 3.0 38.7

149 56.0 13.4 4.0 23.2

149 58.0 13.4 1.7 23.8

IA 1991 : 210 7.9 1.9 5.0 $8.8
1992 : 208 18.1 3.9 5.8 52.7
1993: 208 23.2 6.3 5.3 50.0

1994 ; 207 28.3 9.9 6.0 44.2

MN 1991; 109 23.4 12.8 6.0 50.9
1992 :; 103 24.4 15.6 5.4 42.4

1993 103 29.6 14.6 1.9 49.0
1994 101 36.2 12.4 6.9 35.6

MO 1992 : 133 32.6 12.4 5.6 35.2
1992: «140 38.0 14.5 3.2 38.6

1993 114 41.9 7.9 4.8 23.8
1994 150 46.4 15.9 6.0 23.3

NE 1991 : 81 11.1 4.9 2.5 39.5
1992: 81 13.7 2.5 3.1 49.6

1993 71 18.3 6.3 7 44.4
1994 74 21.6 6.8 2.7 35.8

OH 1991 : 125 48.0 21.2 2.4 23.6
1992: 123 54.6 18.4 4.9 21.3
1993 127 63.8 16.9 1.6 16.1

1994 124 66.5 14.6 3.2 11.7

1/ Based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective yiel
samples.

2/ Broadcast soybeans included as 10.0 inches and less but excluded in com-
- putation of average width.

i

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-31 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production.
United States, 1993-94 (Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare Production
Crop pw rene nnn rene ee ne eee ene ee eee ee ee eee eee eee saree ree
1993 1993 1994 1/
Metric Tons

Oats 1.95 2.05 2,996,290 3.334, 330
Barley 3.17 3.02 8.713, 8706 8,171,580
All Wheat 2.58 2.53 65,394,320 63,131,890

Winter 2.71 2.71 48,127,500 45,310,690

Durum 2.26 2,40 1,918,040 2,560,900

Other Spring 2.26 2.14 15,348,780 15,260,300
Rye 1.70 1.72 262,650 282,920
Sunflower 1.16 1.55 1,177,850 2,065,650
All Hay §.52 §.72 135,038,080 139,602,120

Alfalfa 7.32 7.49 73,371,290 74,821,880

All Other 4.28 4.49 61,666,790 64,780,250
Dry Edible Beans 1.53 1.76 990,740 1,293,060
Dry Edible Peas 2.54 1.97 149,320 102,290
Austrian Winter

Peas : 1.65 1.22 7,030 2,180
Lentils : 1.57 1.17 90,990 84,190
Potatoes :

Winter 2 21.05 21.60 115,760 107,590

Spring > 26.29 27.97 891,490 1,023,260

Summer 2/ 2 25.82 26.60 932,220 961,480
Hops : 1.98 1.91 34,540 32,820
Apples. Comm'] : 4,863,780 4,927,150
Peaches : 1,205,010 1,116,200
Pears : 861,100 889,040
Grapes : 5,465,020 5,557,050
Sweet Cherries : 152,950 152,590
Tart Cherries : 146,690 116,480
Apricots : 87,410 125,010
Olives (CA) : 110,680 95,250
Oried Prunes (CA) : 109,770 158,760
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) : 25,580 36.290
Almonds (CA) : 222,260 290,300
Pecans : 165,560 89,810
Walnuts (CA) : 235,870 199,580
Citrus Fruits 2/ : 1993-94 1994-95

Oranges : 9,326,770 10,309,250

Lemons : 892,670 869,080

1/ 1994 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-8 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1992-93 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

---- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- — --------- 1,000 Pounds ----------
CT : 1,500 1.530 1,609 1,652 2,320 2,413 2,527
FL : 7,100 7,000 2,630 2,400 19,575 18.673 16,800
GA : 43,000 38,000 2,240 2,160 100,980 96,320 82,080
IN : 8,100 7,100 2,150 2,150 18,900 17.415 15,265
KY : 207.300 186.400 2,195 2,457 524,378 455,080 458,010
MD : 9,500 8,500 1,290 1,450 11,931 12,255 12,325
MA : 400 480 1,735 1,663 678 694 798
MO L/ : 2,800 3,300 1,700 2,200 3,298 4,760 7,260
NC > 271,000 243,500 2,237 2,392 609,873 606,210 582,550
OH : 9,000 8.500 2,100 2,250 21,840 18,900 19,125
PA : 10,000 9,600 2,030 2,044 20,840 20,300 19,620
SC : 52,000 47,000 2,130 2,300 112,320 110.760 108,100
TN : 69,940 62.440 1,993 2,285 146,556 139,423 142,672
VA : 49,100 46,430 2,027 2,278 111,459 99,544 105.772
WoQ/ : 2,000 2.000 1,800 1,800 3,623 3,600 3,600
WI : 4,800 3,000 1,509 1,933 13,100 7,244 5,800
US : 747,840 674.780 2,159 2,345 1.721,671 1,613,591 1,582,304

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-22 NASS, USDA


average. Harvesting in Minnesota is equal to 1993 but slightly behind the
average.

In Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, the 1994 number of pods per 18 square feet
is the second highest compared with the 1990-94 period. Soybean harvesting in
Illinois and Indiana is ahead of last year and the average. In Missouri, the
harvest is ahead of 1993 but behind the average.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.15 billion pounds, up 1 percent from

October and 22 percent above the 1993 crop. Early October losses -from
rainfall were offset by better than expected yields in the Southeast and the
Virginia-North Carolina regions. Harvested acreage, at 1.60 million acres,
decreased 19,000 acres from October 1 and was 5 percent below the 1993 level.
Yields are expected to average 2,598 pounds per acre. 55 pounds above last month
and 590 pounds above last year.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida. Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.48 billion pounds, up 1 percent from October 1
and 19 percent above the 1993 crop. The 4-State yield is expected to average
2,608 pounds per acre, 600 pounds above last year. Yields in Florida and South
Carolina proved better than expected as harvest progressed. In all of the
Southeast. early October rains slowed harvest and reduced the quality of peanuts
dug but not threshed and reduced yields on acreage ready to dig. The advanced
harvest minimized the overall impact from the heavy rains. The last half of
October was much better for harvest. Harvest was over 90 percent complete by
the end of October in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 743 million pounds, up

6 percent from last month and 56 percent above last year. Yields of

3,069 pounds are 1.061 pounds above last year’s drought-reduced average. Nearly
ideal harvest conditions and better than anticipated yields raised total
expectations. Harvest in Virginia neared completion by the end of October. The
North Carolina harvest was ahead of last year and normal with 95 percent dug and
86 percent threshed.

The Southwest peanut crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is forecast at

930 million pounds, down 2 percent from last month but 11 percent above last
year, Yields are expected to average 2.292 pounds per acre, up 285 pounds from
last year’s average of 2,007. The acreage expected for harvest is down

9,000 acres from last month to 406,000. Digging was nearly three-fourths
complete in New Mexico and Oklahoma, slightly ahead of normal. Harvest gained
momentum in South Central Texas while wet weather in the Cross Timbers and Low
Plains slowed progress there.

Cotton: Upland cotton planted acreage is revised to 13.9 million acres,

4 percent above 1993. Harvested acreage, at 13.3 million acres, is up
5 percent from last year. American-Pima planted acreage remained at
175,000 acres and harvested remained at 173,600 acres. Compared with 1993,
planted and harvested acres both decreased 8 percent.

Warm temperatures in early October advanced cotton maturity in the Texas Plains.
Defoliation and harvest were active in these areas. Rain at the end of the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-6 NASS, USDA


month interrupted harvest but only minimally. Blackland harvest ended during
the month. By early November, one-half of the Texas crop was rated fair and
30 percent was in good condition. Harvest progress around November 1 reached
52 percent, 15 percent ahead of the 5-year average. Objective yield data
indicate that large boll counts rank fifth in the past 10 years. Boll weights
are their lowest during that time period.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated cotton mostly in fair to good condition in early November. In Arkansas.
17 percent of the crop was excellent and in Tennessee 99 percent was rated good.
Missouri was the only State in the region with harvest ahead of the 5-year
average. In all other Delta States. especially Louisiana and Mississippi, mid-
October rains slowed harvest. From October 9 to October 16, Louisiana progress
increased only 2 percent while in Mississippi harvest advanced only 3 percent.
Normally, these two States show a 15 percent increase in harvested progress.
Objective yield survey data show large bolls as second highest since 1984 in
Arkansas and third and fifth highest in Mississippi and Louisiana, respectively.
Boll weights in Arkansas rank fourth in the past ten years and second in both
Louisiana and Mississippi.

Ninety percent of Arizona's crop was in good to excellent condition in early
November. Harvest was 12 percent ahead of normal. Objective yield counts show
Arizona with the fifth highest large boli count since 1984 but with the lowest
boll weight. California rated 90 percent of the crop in good to excellent
condition with 65 percent harvested by early November. Rains in early October
hampered defoliation and harvest in the San Joaquin Valley. By the month's end,
activity increased so harvest exceeded the average by 2 points. California
survey data shows the number of large bolls ranking eighth and boll weights next
to lowest over the past 10 years.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina). the crop was mostly in good condition earty in November. Heavy rains
in Georgia caused crop condition to deteriorate. On October 9, about 94 percent
rated good to excellent and by October 16 only 62 percent rated in these
categories. During the week of October 9, no cotton harvesting occurred in
Georgia. Normally a 10 percent increase in acreage harvested occurs. By
month's end, conditions improved and 84 percent was rated in good to excettent.
Harvest was 32 percent complete, well behind the 58 percent average pace. North
Carolina was the only State in this region where harvest progress exceeded
average.

American-Pima production is forecast at 355,000 bates. down 4 percent from 1993
and down 10,000 bales from the October forecast. Yields, at 982 pounds per
harvested acre, are up 44 pounds from last year. Arizona's crop was in good
condition and about three-fourths of the crop was harvested. California's crop
remained in good to excellent condition with about half of the acreage
harvested. Some rain damage occurred to modules in the southern San Joaquin
Valley early in October. Texas harvest was active in the Trans Pecos and was
complete in the Winter Garden.

All cotton ginnings totaled 8.970.450 running bales prior to November 1,
compared with 7,974,650 running bales ginned to the same date last year and
7,583,650 running bales in 1992.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-7 NASS, USDA


Corn: Plant Populations, Ear Counts, Row Spacings, 1994

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted corn objective yield
surveys in 10 States during 1994. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields were visited monthly from August through harvest, to obtain specific
counts and measurements. Data in the following tables were obtained from these
visits and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board. but
are intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Plant population per acre,
Selected States, 1990-94 1/

Number of Plants

IL : 22,300 23,700 23,000 23,300 23,200

IN : 21,900 22,400 23,200 23,200 22,850
IA : 22,400 22,900 23,300 23,500 23,950
MI : 20,800 21,800 21,600 22,800 21,800
MN : 23,100 23,900 24,600 25,100 26,000
MO : 18,000 19,800 18,800 19,300 19,650
NE > 21,500 22,200 21,900 22.200 21,700
OH > 22,500 23,200 23.300 23.300 22,900
SD : 16,100 17,500 17,800 17,600 19,250
WI : 21,900 23,400 22,800 23,600 23,600

i Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,
Selected States, +1990- 1994 1/

IL : 21,900 21,800 23,000
IN 21,700 20.300 22.709

1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-28 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994
(Domestic Units)
: Yield per Acr Production
Crop and Unit Decree rte cee rene rte ere e nee neers renee rene

Corn for Grain Bu : 100.7 138.4 6,344,045 9,602,340 10,010,310

Sorghum for Grain "2 $9.9 70.5 567,867 640,380 621,530
Rice 1/ Cwt : 5,510 5,954 156,110 192,301 196,487

Soybeans for Beans Bu : 32.6 41.5 1.868.678 2,458,087 2,522,527
Peanuts for Nuts Lb : 2,008 2,598 3,392,415 4,111,075 4,149,600

All Cotton 1/ Bale: 606 695 16,133.6 19, 302.6 19,452.6
Upland l/ . : 601 691 15,764.3 18,937.6 19,097.6
Amer-Pima 1/ “ : 938 982 369.3 365.0 355.0

Cottonseed Ton : 6,343.2 7,502.5 7,567.5

Potatoes :

Fall Cwt : 341 348 385,935 412,383
Totat . : 326 333 428,693 458,511

Tobacco tb : 2,159 2.345 1,613,591 1,563,065 1,582,304

Sugarbeets Ton : 18.6 21.9 26,249 29,983 31,704

Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed " : 32.8 33.8 31,101 31,052 31,814

Pasture and Range :

Feed 2/ Pet : 82 78
HazeTnuts Ton : 41.0 19.0 20.0

l/ Yield in pounds.
2/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1983-92
average is 73 percent.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-4 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production” report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on
December 9, 1994.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843

Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice (202) 720-9526

Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Tobacco, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068

Charles Van Lahr - Barley. Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Stephen Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285
Kirby Cavett - Peanuts. Hay (202) 720-8843
Roger Latham - Cotton (202) 720-5944
Linda McMillan - Nuts, Grapes (202) 720-4215
Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-2157
Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Barbara Soltes - Noncitrus Fruits (202) 720-7688

A December 1 forecast of Valencia orange production in California will not be
available. Funding for this forecast came from the former Valencia Orange
Administrative Committee. This administrative committee is no longer
functioning and there is no alternative source of funding for the December
Objective Measurement Survey. The next forecast of Valencia orange production
for California will be issued in “Crop Production” on January 11, 1994.

Data Users Meetings

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will be seeking input from
Data Users to assist in identifying areas for improvement in the NASS field crop
production forecasts and production and stocks estimates. In addition to
discussing NASS reports. Economic Research Service situation and outlook reports
and World Agriculture Outlook Board reports will be open for discussion.
Tentative dates for these meetings are as follows:

January 4, 1995 - Kansas City, Missouri
February 24, 1995 : Washington, D.C
March 15, 1995 - Chicago, Illinois

Planted Acreage

A special table is included on pages A-9 and A-10 updating planted acreage
estimates for selected crops. Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation
Service acreage administrative data became available earlier this year than
usual. This allowed some acreage revisions that normally do not occur until the
annual report is released in January.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-14 NASS. USDA


For example, the “Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 2.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the current production forecast of 10.0 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 2.5 percent or approximately 250 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 4.2 percent or approximately 420 million bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the November 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the November 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 99 million bushels. ranging from
1 million to 258 million bushels. The November 1 forecast has been below the
final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the November
1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the
final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Root Mean Square Erro 10-year Record of
Dore cece reser cree Differences Between Forecast

790% Confidenc
Crop and : : Level :
Unit :Percent:-------------

and Final Estimate

: Below: Above

“Percent: Quant: : :
: : : Avg: Min.: Max.:Final:Final

Feed Grains 1/ Mt:

2.0 3.5 10 3 0 7 6 4
Corn for Grain Bu: 2.5 4.2 420 99 1 258 5 5
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 3.5 6.0 37 23 6 53 6 4
Rice Cwt: 2.8 4.8 9 3 0 ll 6 4
Soybeans for : sa
Beans Bu: 2.9 5.0 126 :: 31 13 66 5 5
Cotton Bales 2/: 3.6 6.3 1,226 ::373 14 824 5 5
Potatoes Cwt : 1.9 3.2 15 7 1 16 «10 0
1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats. and barley.
2/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1994 B-12 NASS, USDA


Potatoes:

Seasonal
Group
and State

Winter J/
Spring 1/
Summer J/

Fall
CA
co
1D
10 SW Co
Other ID
IN
ME
MA
MI
MN
MT
NE
NV
NM
NY
Long Is
Upstate
NO

QH

OR
Matheur
Other OR

PA

RI

SD

UT

WA

WI

WY

Total

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group,
State, and United States, 1992-94

Production

Area Harvested : Yield

4.
3.

7.
6.

- 1,000 Acres
13.6 12.
83.8 90.
89.2 89.
12.0 ti.
72.2 73.
24.0 27.
364.0 381.

4.2
78.0 75.
3.0
38.0 42.
55.0 67.
9.0 10.
9.4 10.
7.7
5.8
6.2 6.
22.0 22.
111.0 123.
5.7 5.
8.7 10.
40.7 43.
20.0 18
1a
5.2 5.
6.2

150.0 152

69.5 71

: 1.8
: 1,130.4 1,184
1,317.0 1,376.

3 188 193 2,998
4 235 250 = 21,535
3 230 237 21,309
0 400 400 5.600
7 350 350 22,110
0 435 460 9,570
0 318 320 117,480
1 250 280 989
0 255 230 24,300
1 215 250 825
0 310 290 10,800
0 230 265 16,080
0 300 320 2.465
8 320 370 2,698
7 380 335 2,925
3 495 500 2,295
L 265 265 1,984
§ 275 260 5,824
0 190 235 «27,690
5 200 245 1,440
2 410 420 3,075
Q 480 500 18,000
0 230 210 4,940
1 205 240 377
5 205 280 1,500
i} 265 265 1,650
0 590 585 69,300
5 325 360 25,160
7 280 280 448
8 341 348 379,525
8 326 333 425,367

2,

19,
20.

552
654
552

800
270

440
115,
050
890

752

645

780
650
700
008
+926
,871

643
050
090
140

567
536
600

226

066
643
500
588

504

935
693

121,
17,

12,
17,

88,

25
412

458,

ONUwWwW

carried forward from earlier forecast.

1/ Estimates for

Crop Production

November 1994

current year

Agricultural Statistics

NASS,

Board
USDA


U.S. Soybean Production
1985 - 1994

Billlon Bushels
3.00

2.52
2.60 POPES Pr eer er ee eereree ee rereere errr eer rere rere rere errr errr eer re rere rere reer reser rere ree eee r ree
240 2.19
194 1.94 192 193 ,199
2.00) AN ee Ag coy 488 YA). 387.

RAYE
100 L A 7

“ADAG

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Year

DMNMNSS

NV

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted

Corn : 73,32

Sorghum : 10,49
Rice > 2,920.
Soybeans : 60,07
Peanuts : 1,733.
All Cotton : 13,438.
Upland : 13,248.
Amer -Pima : 190.
Potatoes :
Fall : 1,189.
Total : 1,385.
Tobacco :
Sugarbeets : 1,437.

Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed

1,000 Acres

79,097 62.9
9,719 9.4
3,345.0 2,833
61,895 $7,2
1,634.0 1,689.
14, 063.8 12,783.
13, 888.8 12,594.
175.0 188.
1,207.8 1,130.
1,406.2 1,317.
747.

1,468.0 1,409.
948

91
86
0
87

ORWO

OOP

Area Harvested 1/

grain, beans, nuts, etc.

i/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie..

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994
(Metric Units)

Corn + 29,673,080

Sorghum > 4,246,010
Rice : 1,181,690
Soybeans : 24,311,750
Peanuts : 701,530
All Cotton 5,438,340
Uptand : 5,361,450
Amer-Pima : 76,890
Potatoes :
Fall : 481,540
Total : 560,580
Tobacco :

Sugarbeets : $81,820
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed

830
890
490
480
850
280
830
450

460
970
520
370

i/ Harvested for principal use of each crop,

Crop Production
November 1994

A-3

Hectares
760 25,491,
180 3,838,
699 1,146,
290 23,183,
260 683,
480 5,173,
660 5,096,
820 76,
780 457,
070 532,
302,
080 570,
383
je.,

grain, beans, nuts, etc.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


all States. In Louisiana, second crop management and harvesting continued but
cool, rainy weather was hindering progress.

Fall Potatoes: A record high production of fall potatoes is forecast at

412 million cwt, up 7 percent from last year and 9 percent above
1992. Area harvested totals 1.18 million acres, up 5 percent from the last two
years. Average yields of 348 cwt per acre are expected, up 7 cwt from a year
earlier. Eight States (Idaho, Washington. Colorado, Montana, New Mexico,
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan) produced their largest fall crop since
records began in 1949. Most western and Central States harvested record high
yields per acre.

Five Eastern States produced 29.5 million cwt of fall potatoes in 1994, down
11 percent from last year and 23 percent below 1992. Area for harvest is
estimated at 125,800 acres, off 3 percent from last year. The average yield of
235 cwt per acre is down 19 cwt from last year. The Maine crop fell 13 percent
from a year ago, New York dropped 3 percent. and Pennsylvania was down

18 percent. Pockets of field and storage breakdown occurred in a]) three
States. These losses were not counted as production. Considerable acreage in
Maine was not harvested.

Eight Central States produced 92.6 million cwt this year. a jump of 25 percent
from last year and 7 percent above two years ago. Harvested area gained

11 percent to 329.400 acres. The average yield of 281 cwt per acre is a record.
up 31 cwt from last year. North Dakota and Minnesota suffered early summer
flooding with some acreage lost but this was minor compared with last year.
Yields rebounded nicely from a year ago producing record highs in Nebraska,
North and South Dakota, and Minnesota.

Ten Western States produced 290 million cwt in 1994, up 4 percent from the last
year and 14 percent above two years ago. Acreage for harvest, at 729,600 acres,
was up 4 percent. The average yield of 398 cwt per acre gained 1 cwt from a year
ago. Idaho's production of 134 million cwt is a record high. up 6 percent from
last year and is the best quality in years. Washington growers produced their
largest crop ever, slightly larger than last year but somewhat rougher in
quality. Oregon's yields are a record high with good quality in all areas.
Colorado’s record high production was 2 percent above last year. Montana and
New Mexico also produced record fall crops, up 19 and 10 percent from Jast year.
respectively. Production in California, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming was smaller
than last year.

Soybeans: Growers plan to harvest 60.8 million acres, up 120,000 acres from the

> October estimate. Planted acreage is estimated at 61.9 million
acres, also up 120,000 acres from the previous estimate. State changes to
planted acres can be found on page A-9. The November Objective Yield Survey
reported a record high pod count for objective yield States. Soybean harvest was
ahead of 1993 and the average by the end of October.

In comparison with the 1990-94 time period, the 1994 number of pods

per 18 square feet is the highest for Arkansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and
Ohio. Soybean harvesting in Arkansas and Ohio is ahead of last year and the
average. In Iowa and Nebraska, the harvest is ahead of 1993 and equal to the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-5 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed: Condition by State and United States,
1993-94 and Average 1/

State : Average : 1993
: 1983-92:

Percent

1994 :: State : Average : 1993 : 1994
: 1983-92: :

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64:
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-26 NASS, USDA


All cotton production for 1994 remains a record high at 19.5 million bales. up
1 percent from October and 21 percent larger than 1993. Yields are expected to
average 695 pounds per harvested acre, up 5 pounds from last month and up

89 pounds from last year. The forecast for Arkansas upland increased by
150,000 bales with a record yield of 841 pounds. Record yields are also
expected in Missouri, North Carolina. and New Mexico. California's upland crop
declined 150,000 bales from October as the number of large bolls and boll
weights are the lowest in the past 10 years.

This report was approved on November 9, 1994, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultura) Statistics Service’s Agricultural
Statistics Board.

Agricultural Statistics Board

Agriculture Chairperson
Richard E. Rominger Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1994 A-2 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY __ Gased on prefiminary reports

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly. can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicabte to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile.
or for coo) season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months.
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-1 NASS, USDA


the stone fruit harvests were virtually complete by mid-October. Pruning stane
fruit trees began with less desirable varieties pushed out. Apple harvest
maintained momentum with Granny Smith, Fuji, and Gala apples the main varieties
picked. Early month rain caused some Fuji losses due to russeting and growth
cracks. Kiwifruit, persimmons, pomegranates, and quince harvest continued.
Olive harvest was nearly over but some growers delayed harvest hoping for more
size.

California Citrus: The 1993-94 Valencia orange harvest was virtually complete

by the end of October. Harvest of new crop Navel oranges,
tangerines, grapefruit, and lemons began to gather momentum. Medfly control
efforts were successful in Ventura County.

Crop Production Agricuitural Statistics Board
November 1994 B-10 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Percentage Distributions by Row Width and Average
Row Width for Selected States, 1992-94

State : foe cee eee ec eee cee eee cee eee ee neat eeceecececere : Average
and : : 32,.6- :34.6- : 38.6- :40.6 & : Row
Year : 34.5 236.5 : 40.5 :Greater: Width
IL 1992: 233 57.9 12.0 1.30 14.2 13.7 0.9 0.0 32.0
1993: 244 50.8 16.0 1.2 13.1 15.2 3.7 0.0 32.4
1994: 241 52.3 19.9 1.7 9.1 11.6 5.0 0.4 32.1
IN 1992: 163 67.5 14.7 1.2 8.6 4.3 3.1 0.6 31.2
1993: 166 63.3 19.3 3.0 6.0 8.4 0.0 0.0 31.2
1994: 158 69.7 13.9 0 8.2 6.3 1.9 0.0 31.2
IA 1992: 242 43.0 16.9 1.7 10.7 18.2 8.3 1.2 33.1
1993: 259 47.4 14.7 0.8 6.6 22.0 7.0 1.5 33.1
1994: 276 44.5 20.3 0.4 6.2 21.0 7.2 0.4 32.9
MI 1992: 86 52.3 25.6 3.5 3.5 12.8 2.3 0.0 31.6
1993: 79 59.5 21.5 2.5 2.5 11.4 1.3 1.3 31.5
1994: 79 65.8 22.8 1.3 §.1 2.5 2.5 0.0 30.8
MN 1992: 188 59.5 12.8 0.0 9.0 14.4 3.2 1.1 31.9
1993; 158 62.0 12.0 1.9 5.1 12.7 5.7 0.6 32.0
1994; 168 61.3 13.7 1.8 7.7 9.5 6.0 0.0 31.7
MO 1992: 123 35.0 28.5 0.8 13.8 15.4 6.5 0.0 32.9
1993: 86 36.0 29.1 2.3 9.3 16.3 5.8 1.2 32.8
1994: 112 45.4 30.4 0.9 6.3 12.5 4.5 0.0 31.9
NE 1992: 216 28.7 16.7 3.2 27,8 17.1 6.0 0.5 33.7
1993: 206 34.5 17.0 1.9 22.3 18.9 4.4 1.0 33.4
1994; 211 31.7 19.0 0.5 27.0 16.6 4.7 0.5 33.5
OH 1992: 142 62.7 13.4 2.1 6.3 8.5 4.2 2.8 31.9
1993: 133 66.1 15.8 3.7 2.3 6.0 3.8 2.3 31.6
1994: 127 55.9 26.0 0.8 5.5 9.4 1.6 0.8 31.5
sD 1992: 100 30.0 5.0 0.0 12.0 40.0 12.0 1.0 35.1
1993: 98 21.4 12.3 1.0 6.1 42.9 15.3 1.0 35.4
1994, 90 22.2 10.0 L200 21.10 34.5 10.0 Lt 35.1
wi 1992: 123 26.0 16.3 3.3 10.6 26.8 16.2 0.8 34.4
1993: 112 25.9 17.9 5.4 16.0 22.3 10.7 1.8 34.0
1994: 115 30.4 17.4 3.5 10.4 26.1 9.6 2.6 34.1
l/ Spacings based on row measurements in sample plots selected for objective
yield terminations.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

November 1994 A-29 NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

and United States,

Area Harvested

Production

1993 1994

1,000 Acres
AL L/ 19 20
AR 215 230
co 190 170
GA lf 40 35
Tk 210 180
KS 2,800 2.800
KY 1/ 10 20
LA 120 110
MS 65 72
MO 640 540
NE 1,250 1,200
NM 165 160
NC 1/ 15 20
OK 290 290
SC l/ 8 15
SD 210 130
TN L/ 39 27
TX 3,200 2,800
US 9.486 8,819

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0 722
0 12,470
0 7,980
0 1,440
0 17,430
0 176,400
0 750
0 7,200
0 4,225
0 46,720
0 73,750
0 7,425
0 675
0 14,500
0 160
0 10,500
0 3,120
0 182,400

a) 567.867

-- 1,000 Bushels --

1,000
16,100
8,500
1,925
17,460
207,200
1,700
6,600
5.400
48,600
111,600
6,400
1,100
14,500
825
8,060
2,160
162,400

621,530

l/ Estimates for current year carried forward from

Crop Producti
November 1994

on

earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted November 1, 1994

Area Harvested : Production
State :

1993; 1994 1993 1994

1,000 Acres —-------~ Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels --
AL : 295 300 24.0 29.0 30.0 7,080 9,000
AR : 3,550 3,400 26.0 33.0 35.0 92,300 119,000
DE oa 215 220 23.0 33.0 36.0 4,945 7.920
FL Us : 50 40 25.0 24.0 24.0 1,250 960
GA : 480 500 17.0 30.0 31.0 8.160 15,500
TL > 9,000 9,400 43.0 45.0 46.0 387.000 432,400
IN 4,850 4,680 46.0 46.0 46.0 223,100 215,280
IA 8.300 8.750 31.0 $1.0 51.0 257.300 446,250
KS 1.900 2,100 28.0 33.0 35.0 53,200 73.500
ky 1,150 1,120 33.0 33.0 37.0 37,950 41,440
LA : 1,300 1,150 24.0 30.0 29.0 31,200 33,350
MD : 570 550 26.0 37.0 39.0 14,820 21,450
MI : 1,440 1,540 38.0 36.0 38.0 54,720 58,520
MN 5.000 5,600 23.0 39.0 41.0 115,000 229,600
MS 1,950 1,900 22.0 29.0 29.0 42,900 55,100
MO 3,600 4,540 33.0 36.0 37.0 118,800 167,980
NE : 2,500 2,850 36.0 46.0 48.0 90,000 136,800
Noi N 147 147 29.0 31.0 31.0 4,263 4,557
NC > 1,250 1,350 24.0 31.0 31.0 30,000 41,850
ND : 540 630 17.0 29.0 29.0 9,180 18.270
OH : 4,050 3,850 38.0 46.0 44.0 153,900 169,400
OK V/ : 260 280 24.0 27.0 27.0 6,240 7.560
PA l/ i 295 315 39.0 40.0 40.0 11,505 12,600
Sc : 520 620 15.0 25.0 25.0 7,800 15,500
$o : 1,750 2,400 22.0 33.0 39.0 38,500 93.600
TMN : 1,040 1.050 31.0 33.0 34.0 32,240 35.700
TX : 205 200 19.0 31.0 31.0 3,895 6,200
VA : 490 520 22.0 32.0 33.0 10,780 17,160
WI : 590 820 35.0 40.0 44.0 20,650 36,080
US 57,287 60,822 32.6 40.5 41.5 1,868,678 2,522,527

l/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
November 1994 A-16 NASS. USDA