SORGHUM FOR GRAIN

PRODUCTION

AREA HARVESTED
Ino t +
1981 = 1979: 1980 1981 ¢

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

45 37600-5320 35.0
22 714007540 60.0
290 6260 29.0
135 75.0 13,0

4,122 1,575,
1,950 1,760
5,887 17,980
11,096 10,125

390 38.0 35.0 12,250 14,040
130 39.0 24,0 1,968 3,640
80 68.0 59.0 3,658 5,360
a 5060 52,0 a6 49s,
19 74.0 70.0 1,330 1,482
34700 6940 43.0 156,520 259,000
27 6840 50,0 1,300 1,647
34,0 ae 26700
35.0 1,330 2,150
48.0 43,200 83,420
60-0 321,800 168,100

40,0 10,280

$6.0 2,232

54,0 16,320

50.0 250

22.0 330

55.0 10,725

42.0 1,470

46.0 181,706
43.0 387 0
46.2 587,997 877,366

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

2¢ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP.

KICE

AREA HARVESTED, t YIELO

PRODUCTION

STATE

z Inv 3 Ino
1 1979 2 198g t 1981 1979 = 1980: 1981

: IND

1,000 ACRES POUNDS

1,020.0 1,280.0 1,500.0 4320 4,110 4,550 44,064 92,615
527.0 546.0 590.0 6,520 6,480 4,800 34,042 35,3501
$26.0 589.0 660.0 3,916 «5,550 3,800 20,643 20, 78
207.0 240.0 4.050 384d «4,290 8,384 9,226

35.0 56.0 3reio 4,160 4,200 12355 e,341
557.0 586.0 4,220 4,256 4,900 23,081 24,812

569.0 © 3295.0

4,599 4,403

OA 131,947 145,063

1s REVISED 1961 PLANTEU ANEA Iv THOUSAND ACRESS=
ARKANSAS, CALIFORNIA 595,03 TEXAS, 575.0
AND Us See 3 .
2/ ESTIMATES FOK CUMRENT YEAY CAKRTEO FORWARU FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

AHFAT PROOUCTION wY CLASSES, UNITED STATES

WINTER

DURUM WHITE

1,090 BUSHELS,

1976 429,904 148,920 205,614 379,094 155,328 40,056 1,175,524
1979 16085,918 316,695 195,618 $62,891 106,694 65,281 2,134,000
1980 2184,641 427,530 278,910 311,226 108,395 58,794 309,666
igen 1,103,496 658,556 247,373 460,422 182,088 42,070 2,749,785

1/ INDICATED OCT 1, 1981.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA




GRAPES

t PRODUCTION te

CROP ANO STATE

TOTAL TOTAL
1979
GRAPES TAALE TYPE
CALIF 417,000 426,000 410,000
GRAPES AINE TYPE
CALIF 1,621,000 2,004,000 1,759,000
GRAPES PALSIN TYPE NRIED 27
CALIF 502-300 309-000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE NOT UXLED
CALIF 944,000 1,080,000
GRAPES RAISIN TYPE sf
CALIF 2, $20,000 2,692,000 1,650,000
ALL GRAPES
ARI? ay 13,500 12,400 12,400
ARK 4 8,200 8,100
CALIF 4,558,000 3,619,000
wick 56,500 50,900
uo ry 4,500 3,200
ny 169/000 140,000
NC ay 5,800 5,300
OHTO art 12,000 10,000
PA 25,500 56,000
WASH 102,800 145,000
OTHER STATES as sr 5,200 4,500 5,400
us 4,989,000 5-595, 100 4,245,400

Af INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PROVUCTIGN aby EXCESS CULLAGe
(TONS)= US 1979-300, 1980-300,
2/ MRIEN AASTS,1 TOW UF RAISIGS TS EQUIVALENT TO 4,95

TONS UF FRESH GRAPES FOR 1979 AD 5.22 TuWsS FOR 1980,
3/ FRESH EQDEVALENT UF DRIED AND WOT UXIED.
Af ESTIMATES FUR CURRENT YEAR CARKTED FORNAKO FROM EARL (FR FORECAST.
5/ GENRGTA AYO SOUTH CAKOLIUA,

PRUSES AND PLUMS

PROUUCTION

STATE

10AHO 7,500 8,000 7,500
MICH 14,900 12,500 18,000
ORES 26,900 35,009 26,000
WASH 14,700 24,100 12,600
TOTAL 6 7o.n00 66,100

FILBERTS

PROOUCTION

STATE ewe eeecw nen enn ee ee -
3 TOTAL : 1nd
1980 $ 1984
t TONS
ORES : 12,700 15,100 15,000
wASH vad 300 300 300
us : 13,000 15,400 15,300

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FRUM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1987 B-19 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


US. FALL POTATO PRODUCTION

The decline from last month's forecast in harvested acreage is results from more abandonment
in North Carolina caused by excessive rainfall in August. The Tarheel crop is forecast at 4.56
million cwt, down 3 percent from last month but 7 percent above 1980. By the end of September,
harvest was about one-third complete, slightly ahead of normal. Currently the crop is rated in
mostly fair to good condition. Production in Louisiana is estimated at 2.21 million cwt, down 6
percent from September 1 but 4 percent greater than in 1980. Yields have been reduced by
inadequate rainfal] during September. Harvest is running ahead of normal with 78 percent of the
crop harvested by October 1,

The California crop is forecast at 1.69 million cwt, 6 percent above last month and 12
percent above last year. Yield prospects are brighter than expected earlier Since growing
conditions have continued near ideal. Harvest for storage has begun and quality is reported as
good. Production is forecast at 741 thousand cwt in Texas, 43 percent above the 1980 drought
stricken crop. Harvest moved into full swing in late September. Extremely wet conditions in the
early growing season reduced yield and quality of the crop.

TOBACCO: Production of all tobacco is forecast at 2.07 billion pounds (911 thousand metric

tons), up 13 percent from the 1.78 billion pounds (809 thousand metric tons) produced
in 1980, and 2 percent above last month. Burley and flue-cured tobacco account for most of the
increased production. Yield per acre, at 2086 pounds, is 143 pounds above 1980 and 25 pounds
greater than on September 1.

Flue-cured production jis placed at 3.13 billion pounds (512 thousand metric tons), 2 percent
more than the September 13 forecast and 4 percent above a year earlier. Increased production
from September 1 is reported in all producing States except South Carolina. Harvested acreage,
at 5316 thousand acres (217 thousand hectares), is 3 percent below last year but 4000 acres more
than on September 1. Yield at 2105 pounds per acre compares with 1968 pounds last year and 2077
Pounds last month. Auction markets have closed in the Georgia-Florida belt.

Producers of fire-cured tobacco expect to harvest 41.4 million pounds (18.8 thousand metric
tons) from 24.6 thousand acres (9940 hectares). This represents a 14 percent increase in
Production from 1980. Production is up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast, mainly because
of increased acreage for harvest in Tennessee. Yield per acre is estimated to be 1684 pounds.

Burley output is expected to total 717 million pounds (325 thousand metric tons), 29 percent
larger than last year’s crop. Increases in yield for Kentucky, North Carolina, and Virginia
brought about a J percent increase in the production forecast from Tast month. Yield per acre
now stands at 2201 pounds, up 20 pounds from September 1, Harvest is well ahead of normal in
most States and is expected to end by mid-October. Stripping is underway in Tennessee and
Kentucky,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 : An14 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SUNFLOWERS

STATE ? AREA HARVESTED : YIELO 3 PRODUCTION
tee

INO t :
1981 1979 3 1980 1%

1980 1/
1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS

2
QIt_ VARIETIES
MINN 2/3 14290 835 1,390 14190 1,793,100 993,650
NOOAK 273 3,220 2,050 17360 980 4,379,200 2,009,000
3 DAK ast 612 499 1,230 920 752,760 459,080
TEX = aft 69 58 4,210 810 83,890 46,980
US ass 5019 3,aa2 1-350 1,019 7,008,550 3,508,710
NON-QIL VARIETIES
37 55 1/360 = 1,090 77,520 59,950
158 185 4,300 930 205,400 172,050
3 1 19180 930 3,540 930
1 0 14100 0 17100 9
219 eat 19313 967 287,560 232,930
1,347 690 710 14389 = 1,164 = 1,250 1,870,620 1,053,600 867,500
2,235 2.745 4,357 976 1,150 8 00 2,181,050 3,156,750

435 1,230 920 980 460,010 426,300
25 1,208 810 900 84,590 467980 22,500
3,915 1,349 2,026 3,148 7,296,110 3,741,680 4,993,050

1/ REVISED,

FLAXSEED

APEA HARVESTED

PRODUCTION

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 GUSHELS
wine : 153 125 95 14.5 12.5 12.5 20219 1,563 1,188
N UAK 460 310 Boo 1360 10,0 3,100 4,560
S OAK 260 265 165 14.5 15.0 3, 44s 2,145
TEX 5 3 920 6.7 20
us

are 703 640 13.7 ite

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUEY AFTER 1940 CROP,

PEANUTS FUR NUTS

AREA HARVESTEO

PRODUCTION

STATE

1979 3

1,000 POUNDS

3
1979: 1980

PouNnps

1,000 ACRES

200.0 210.0 2,785 1,325 2,600 584,850 265,000 546,000
55.0 60.0 34270 2,600 37050 179,850 143,000 163,000
514.0 55520 3,235 1,935 2,900 1,704,895 994,590 1,609,500

6.0 7e5 19650 1,250 = 1,700 12,375 7,500 12,750

8.8 9.9 27750 2,540 2,400 25,300 22,382 23,760
166,0 170.0 2,280 4,755 = 2,700 378,460 291,330 459,000
105,0 116.0 24200 1,335 2,250 264,000 140,175 265,500
13,0 45.0 2,190 14100 2,100 32,250 14,300 31,500
230.0 265.0 1,725 1,275 1,600 533,025 293,250 456,000
101.0 2104.0 26510 1,350 2,750 253,510 136,350 286,000

1,398.8 1,534.9 2,611 1,650 2,524 3,968,485 2 10

307,647 3,873

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WASHINGTON, D.C, 20250

OFFICIAL BUSINESS
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300

To stop mating (J or to change your
address [_} send this sheet with label
intact, showing new address, to Crop
Reporting Board Publications, SRS, U.S.
Dept. of Agriculture, Rm 5829 South
Building, 14th & independence Ave. 8.W.,
Wash, D.C. 20250.

POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE
AGAR 101

FIRST CLASS


RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 PRODUCTION FORECASTS

Crop production forecasts in this report are based primarily on yield surveys taken about
October 1. The yield surveys included mailed reports from farmers for all crops and actual
field observations and measurements for corn, soybeans, cotton, wheat, and some fruit and nut
crops. Farmers provided appraisals of crop conditions and probable yield information for crops
on their farms and for their localities. Objective yield surveys provided small plot observa-
tions, counts and measurements in a probability sample. These surveys are subject to sampling
and non-sampling type errors that are common to all surveys. More importantly, the forecasts are
subject to change due to future weather effects and other factors that cannot be measured
currently but directly affect final production.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of production forecasts in this report, the
“Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is shown below for
selected crops. This is computed by expressing the deviations between the October 1 production
forecasts and the final estimates as a percent of the final estimates and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1961-80 twenty year period; the square root of this average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning ex-
pected differences in the current forecasts relative to the final end of season estimates,
assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing
recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain forecast is 3.9
percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 8081
million bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.9 percent or
approximately 315 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that
the difference will not exceed 6.7 percent of approximately 54] million bushels.

Also shown in the table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the differences between
the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between
the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the 10 years have averaged 257 million
bushels, ranging from 16 million to 548 million bushels. During this 10-year period the October
| forecast has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 2 times. This does not imply that
the October 1 corn forecast in a particular year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. for most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final
estimates is about equally distributed.

RELIABILITY OF OCTOBER 1 CROP ‘PRODUCTION FORECASTS

+ ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR TEN YEAR RECORD OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
3 FORECAST ANO FINAL ESTIMATE

: : 90% CONFIDENCE
CROP AND : : LEVEL
UNIT :PERCENT:

QUANTITY NUMBER OF YEARS

FEED GRAINS 1/ MT 3.1 1 14 8 2
CORN FOR GRATN BU 3.9 16 548 8 2
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN BU 4.7 3 76 3 7
ALL WHEAT Bu 1.3 1 22 5 5

OURUM BU > 5.3 1 8 6 4

OTHER SPRING BU : 3.1 to) 13 7 3
RICE CwT 2.6 0 6 6 4
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS BU 1 3.4 1 120 7 3
COTTON BALES 2/: 5.4 V7 1,273 4 6
FALL POTATOES CwT : 2.7 1 13 9 1

1/ CORN FOR GRAIN, SORGHUM FOR GRAIN, OATS, AND BARLEY.
zy QUANTITY IS IN THOUSANDS OF BALES.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT wv

PRODUCTION t PRODUCTION
cRoP BOXES z TON EQUIVALENT
AND $ UTILIZED UTILIZED SINDICATEO
STATE 3 1979-80 3 1980981 3 19619R2 & 1979480 ¢ 1960-61 § 1961-62
3 1,000 UNITS 2/ 1,000 UNITS
ORANGES, EARLY MID & NAVEL 3/3
ARIZ 3 850 900 900 32 34 34
CALIF 3 32,600 38,750 25,000 1,223 1,483 938
FLA 3 117,900 105,600 93,000 5,306 4,752 4,185
TEX 3 2-300 2,600 3,300 o7 120 Tat
us 3 183,650 147,850 122,200 6,658 6,399 5,298
ORANGES, VALENCIA 3
ARIZ : 2,650 1,700 1,750 9 6a 65
CALIF 3 26,800 27,500 22,000 1,005 1,031 825
FLA 2 68,800 66,800 73,000 3,9% 3,006 3,285
TEX : 1,730 17730 2,100 74 74 89
us 3 119,980 97,730 98,850 S,17e 4,175 4,264
ALL ORANGES i
ARIZ 3 3,500 2600 2,650 151 98 9
CALIF 3 59,400 66,250 47,000 2,228 2,484 t,703
FLA z 206,700 172,400 166,000 9,302 7,758 7,470
TEX : 4,030 4,330 5.400 171 184 230
us 2 273,630 245,589 221,050 11,832 10,524 9, S62
TEMPLES :
FLA : 6,000 3,600 4,200 270 102 169
GRAPEFRUIT, WHITE SEEDLESS
FLA 31,100 28,400 32,000 1,322 1,207 1,360
GRAPEFRUIT, PINK SEEOLESS =
FLA = 15,600 14,600 16,000 671 621 680
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT z
FLA 2 7,900 74300 7,000 336 310 298
ALL GRAPEFRUIT 2
ARIZ z 44000 2,800 2-600 96 90 63
CALIF aft
DESERT 3 4,200 4,260 4,000 134 156 128
OTHER AREAS 2 34300 3,800 ttt 127
TOTAL : 7,500 84060 2as 263
FLA : 54,600 40,300 95,000 2,329 2,138 “2,338
TEx 3 74900 44700 10,500 316 268 420
us 3 73,200 67,860 2,986 2,759
TANGERINES :
ARIZ $ 750 7090 700 28 26 26
CALIF t 1,650 17660 14700 62 79 64
FLA : 3,900 3000 3r100 165 143 147
us 3 6,300 5,566 51500 275 239 237
LEMONS :
ARIZ t 59950 77000 7,800 116 206 296
CALIF t 17,700 24/800 22,300 673 942 847
us 2 20,750 31,800 30,100 789 1/208 1,143
TANGELOS 5
FLA 6,400 4,900 57500 268 2er 248

1/ THE CRUP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR
SHOWN AND ENDS @ITH YEAR HARVEST IS COMPLETED.

2/ NET LBS PER HOX3 DRANLES@CALIF & AKIZ=75,FLA=90y
TEX=853 GRAPEFRUIT@CALIF DESERT & ARIZ=64, CALIF
OTHER*07, FLA#85, TEX“807 LEMONS=767 TANGELOS &
TEMPLES=903 TANGERINES= CALIF & ARI2*75, FLA©9S.

3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEUUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA, EARLY AND MILSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGEWINES IN
TEXAS.

4/ THE FIRST FORECAST FOR CALIF GRAPEFRUIT "CTHER AREAS*
WILL BE AS OF APR 1,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SPS, USDA


ALL WHEAT vs

: AREA KAWVESTED : YIELD PRODUCTION
STATE beeen nnn nnn n en nen ere eewe nen nee ene nen ne en een ne en rene nee ee ne een nnn n eee
3 : 3 IND + : FUND: z 3 inp
: 1979 1920 1981 3 1979 = 1980 1981 1979 1980 19a
: 1,000 ACKES RUSHELS 1,090 BUSHELS
ALA : 145 235 565 26.0 24,5 44,0 3,770 5,758 24,860
ARIZ : 1e5 215 aan 76.3 40.0 61.2 9,540 17,200 19,564
ARK : 42 820 1,690 39.0 5440 al.o 14,700 $1,160 67,650
CALIF of 400 1,150 1,365 70.6 74,3 76,7 56,450 65,500 104,685
coLO : 2eh4al 3,595 3,090 beh $2.4 27.4 10,224 169,900 64,710
OEL $ 21 ev 43 34,0 40.0 40.0 714 1,080 1,720
GA : 175 600 1,056 3520 5500 41.0 6,125 19,800 43,050
TOAHG = t 1,470 1,455 $0.4 62.0 58.3 TH, 140 96,030 84,410
TLL : 1,250 1,900 43.0 48,0 43.0 53,750 75,560 91,200
INO : 945 1,350 47.0 49.0 46.0 444d 53,900 62,100
IOWA 3 ou 110 $7,0 SAAO 50.0 2e2ed 3,496 44160
KANS z= 10,800 12,000 12,200 58.0 55.0 25.0 410,400 420,000 305,000
KY 3 240 $0 Too 38.0 39.8, 43.0 it,0e0 13,825 59,100
LA z 26 6? 275 25.0 25.0 44,0 728 1,876 12,100
MD : 90 a7 137 57.0 3.0 40.0 3,330 685 5-480
MICH : 735 Ago 620 43,0 4a 47.0 34,605 55,200 58,540
MINN : 2578 $169 3,585 3501 32.4 4oa 90,384 102,556 144,685
MISS 3 11> 250 600 32. 31,0 54.0 3,680 7,750 22,800
MO 3 1,600 2,070 2,750 44.0 43.0 4t.o 707400 89,010 = 112,750
MONT : 5,125 5,100 5,798 2247 23.5 29,9 116,475 119,800 173,325
NEBR : 2,550 2,950 3,096 S40 S860 $4.0 86,700 112,100 103,700
NEV : 24 eo 29 2962 eeel 56.7 1,420 1,800 1,645
wd : 41 a3 Sb 3.0 43.0 42.0 1,476 1,849 2,352
N MEX : 410 Soo 5e5 22.0 21.6 20.0 92020 10,509 10,500
ay : 160 150 too 44.0 4d .a As.0 6560 6,880
nec : 210 400 405 3660 55.0 53.0 Tr 5b0 14,175
N DAK ¢ 9,600 Feb20 11,770 26.3 18.7 23.4 9 252,255 3344370
GHTO : 1,520 1,370 1,600 48.6 49,0 43.0 63,360 67,530 08,400
OKLA : 5,700 6,500 6,400 BALO 50.0 27,0 216,600 195,000 172,800
GREG 2 1245 1,590 1,265 46.0 57.8 Bel 57,310 77,400 15,400
PA : 235 e250 276 51. $T.9 56.0 7,285 9,250 9,720
sc : 100 192 580 $3.0 $6.0 54,0 3,300 6,912 12,520
S$ DANK? 2,805 Breas 5,905 21.4 19.2 22.5 604060 62,425 18,175
TENN : 250 550 a50 3460 54.0 44,0 6,500 13,300 $7,460
TEX 2 4,600 5,00 62556 SO ot 23.0 2bo.0 138,000 130,006 185,400
UTAH : 262 ere ero ebe4l S$e.9 31.9 7,448 B,9He K,610
vA : 1380 ?be $95 35.0 $7.0 42,0 6,500 10,582 16,596
WASH z 2,980 3, leo 3,126 39.6 50,7 53.8 118,00 160,220 = 167, 660
w Va 3 10 9 10 34.0 3hAO $5.0 $40 $42 340
sts : 34 tit tel QDet $964 41.0 erlbe 4,565 47900
wo 3 267 309 20? 220) 27.5 26,8 6,354 8,912 7,639
us 62,454 10,093 60,609 S46 3344 S4.1 2,154,060 2,569,666 2,749,785

Y/ INCLUDES WINTER HEAT ESTIMATES FhOa SEPTEMBER CROP
PRUPUCTTUN KEPUORT.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-3 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALFALFA AND ALFALFA MIXTURES FOR HAY

3 AREA HARVESTED z YIELD PRODUCTION

STATE Beeman a mewn ence mene n een ecw nwa mere nn mene w eter w wes en nen naneneneseunecounnnacecenenens

3 z IND ¢ t : IND : : INO

3 1979 ¢ 1980 ? 1981 3 1979 ¢ 1980 = 1981 3 1979 = 1980 3 1983
3 1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
ARIZ 3 460 165 155 6,40 7.00 7,20 1,024 4,155 1,116
ARK 4/8 73 78 70 2,50 1.60 3.00 183 125 210
CALIF t 1,050 1,030 1,050 6,00 6240 6.00 6,300 6,592 6,300
coLo 3 790 780 760 5,10 3.00 3.00 2,449 2,340 2,280
CONN 173 22 ai 22 2,65 2.55 2.65 58 54 58
DEL 1s? 8 7 7 3.25 3.05 3.10 26 aL 22
IOAHO : 1,068 1,090 1,100 3.40 3.50 3.50 3,631 3,815 3,850
TLL : 740 720 718 3,90 3.75 3.80 2,866 2,700 2,717
IND : 390 380 380 3,20 3.35 3.35 1,248 1,273 1,273
TOWA : 1,810 1,760 1,760 4.10 3.90 4.10 7,421 6,864 7,216
KANS : 1,000 1,000 1,020 3,50 2,85 3.50 3,500 2,850 3,570
KY 3 204 206 206 3.18 2.95 3.29 632 539 649
LA we 13 13 13 2,35 2.40 2.40 31 31 31
MAINE 172 el 22 3 2,50 2,05 2260 $3 45 55
chy we 1S 10 14 5,20 3.10 3.20 240 217 237
MASS 1/2 27 27 27 2.90 2.40 2.70 78 65 73
MICH : 1,040 1,020 980 3.10 3.20 3210 3,224 3,264 3,038
MINN 3 25150 2,100 2,000 3.40 2.70 3,20 7,310 5,670 6,400
MO 3 520 520 $40 2.75 2.25 3.05 1,430 1,170 1,647
MONT z 1,300 1,200 1,250 2.25 2.35 2.35 2,925 2,820 2,938
NEBR 3 1,650 1,650 1,650 3.25 3,05 3.05 5,363 5,033 5,033
NEV 3 21s ais 210 3.40 3.50 3.40 Ts 753 74
NH 4/3 19 20 20 2.60 2.25 0 49 45 Se
NJ ss 48 a1 43 3.60 3.00 «90 173 123 168
NMEX 245 240 245 4,50 4.30 5.00 1,103 1,032 1,225
NY : 1,040 1,030 990 2.75 2.90 2.90 2,860 2,987 2,871
nc ast 25 es e7 2,35 2.25 2.30 59 56 62
N DAK 2,000 1,220 1,500 1.85 0.95 1.70 3,700 1,159 2,550
OHIO 2 580 540 510 3.05 3.10 2.90 1,769 1,674 1,479
OKLA 3 460 420 410 3.30 2.50 3.25 1,518 1,050 1,333
ORES 3 ais 425 aro 5.70 4.00 4,00 1,536 1,700 1,640
PA 3 850 B40 aas 2.70 2.60 2,70 2,295 2,184 2,228
RI se 3 3 3 2.70 2.10 2.60 8 6 a
S$ DAK 3 2,500 2,300 2,250 2.20 1.40 1,30 5,500 3,220 2,925
TENN 1/8 105 105 110 2.50 2.40 2.50 263 252 27s
TEX : 190 170 185 4.70 4.50 4,80 893 765 848
UTAH 3 475 470 475 3.80 3.90 3.90 1,805 1,633 1,853
vt vse 105 110 105 2.55 2025 2.60 268 248 e73
vA ist 93 87 90 2.95 2.50 2,85 27a 218 257
WASH : 503 505 500 3.60 3.70 3.75 1,811 1,869 1,875
WVA 173 85 BO 6a 1.75 2.55 2.50 149 204 200
wIs : 3,100 3,050 2,850 3,30 3.350 3.35 10,230 10,675 9,548
WYO : 545 $20 533 2.40 2.15 2.30 1,308 1,118 1,226
us = 27,712 264269 26,165 3419 3.04 3.15 88,314 79,865 62,354

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIEO FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA



SUYBEANS FOR BEANS

STATE

1980 1/3

1,000 ACRES

BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS

ALA 2,100 2,050 15.0 24,0 53,750 31,500 49,200
ARK 4,350 4,350 15.0 24,0 © 144,200 65,250 104,400
OEL 8. 200 260 24,0 4,250 5,200 6,240
FLA 2. 460 466 26.0 13,137 10,120 12,116
GA 2,140 2,150 21.0 58,800 «23,540 45, 150
TLL 9,250 9,390 39.0 379,080 309,675 366,210
TNO 4,360 44600 33.0 159,120 157,680 © 151,800
IOWA 4,270 8,150 42.0 306,375 318,395 342,300
KANS 4,450 1,560 29.0 41,340 = 23,925 45, 240
KY 1,600 1,700 30,0 © 53,950 36,000 51,000
LA 3,350 34130 23.0 93,800 67,000 71,990
Mo 390 sao 30,0 12,150 9, 360 10,800
MICH 950 940 30,0 (30,300 30,4009 28,200
MINN 4,760 4,430 35,9 162,560 149,940 155,050
MISS 3,850 3,700 23.0 118/900 61,600 85,100
or) 5,550 5,100 33.0 183,645 135,485 168,300
NEBR Lett 2,100 39.0 54,749 55,100 81,900
NJ oe 166 24,0 6,090 3,492 4,032
NY 3B 650 | 456

nc 1,850 25,0 45,825 34,740 46,250
N DAK 27 220 26.0 5,562 3,500 64160
outa 3,500 29,0 144,840 135,360 © 101,500
OKLA e7 260 21.0 8,280 3,000 5,400
PA ay 100 31.0 34136 2,524 3,100
sc 1,560 21.0 39,840 = 20, 800 33,180
3 OAK 710 29,0 22,605 += 20,020 22, 350
TENN 2300 27.0 © 70,740 45,900 63, 450
TEX 650 25.0 20,930 13,860 16,250
va a4 27.0 15,276 9,150 17,280
wis a 370 34.0 16,030 10,890 12,580

31,5 2,267,901 1,792,062 2,106,508

1/ REVISED,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAW CARKIED FURWAKD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
3/ E: IMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CxUP.

AREA PLANTED, SUNFLOWERS 1/

‘STATE
AND
VARIETAL TYPE

1980

OIL _VARLETIES :
MINN : 860

Nl OAK : 2,200
SOAK : 524
Tex : 65
us : 3,649

NON-OIL VARIETIES z
MINN z 60
N ODAK : 200
S DAK : 1
TEX : °
us : 261

TOTAL
MINN : 920
N DAK : 2,400
5 DAK : 525
TEX t 65
us

1) REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-5 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


APPLES, COMMERCIAL 1/

: PRODUCTION 27
Peeereseeneee: oe ewe e enn en cen nnsnesnences:

STATE 7 TOTAL TOTAL INDICATED
3 1979 : 1980 : 1981

MILLION POUNDS

ARK 24.0 10.0 23.0
CALIF 690.0 520.0 620.0
coLo 100.0 70.0 75.0
CONN 45.0 42.0 42.0
DEL 13,0 13.5 13.5
Ga 36.0 40.0
IDAHO 150.0 130.0
TL 101.0 194.0
IND 71,0 64.0
IOWA a4 7.0
KANS 1hed 14.0
KY 19.6 24.0
MAINE 65.0 70.0
MO 90.0 82.0
MASS : 100.0 43.0
MICH : 990.0 680.0
MINN art 23.0 21,0
mo : 56.0 63.0
NOH : 58.0 48,0
NJ 110.0 100.0
N MEX art 12.0 14,0
vy z 1,100.0 750.0
NC : 410.0 375.0
OHIO 170.9 190.9
OREG 195.0 180.0
PA 579.0 420.0
RI 20 5.5 5.5
sc ast 35.0 32.0 36.0
TENW Br 10.0 8.0 12.0
uTAn au Si. 52.0 54.0
WT 49.9 50.0 30.0
va 470.0 420.0 420.0
WASH 2rO19.y 3,020.0 2,950.0
WeVA 260.0 245.0 210.0
wIS 54.0 65.0 59.0
us 8,143.1 8,825.4 7,919.5

1/ IN ORCHARDS OF 100 DR MORE BEANIAG AGE TREES,
2/ INCLUDES “IMHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND EXCESS FULLAGE
CMELLION PONWOS)! UNITED STATES 1979224,9,1980918,0,
3/¢ ESTIMATES Fak CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FURWARO FROM E4RLIEX FORECAST.

CRANBERRIES.

1,000 BARRELS
MASS : 1,080.0 1,185.0
Nd : 253.0 245.0
OREG : 94.5 83.5
WASH : 147.0 104.0 132.0
WIS : 901.0, 1,080.0 1,035.0
us : 2,475.5 2,697.5 2,677.0

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 8-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


FLORIOA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELO: The forecast of 1981-82 Florida Frozen Concentrated
Orange Juice yield is 1.36 gallons per box at 42.0
degree brix equivalent. The reported 42.0 degree level will become effective at the start of
the new marketing year on December 1, 1981 for all Florida FCOJ sold in the U.S. in retail and
institutional size containers. The yield jeve) previously reported has been for 43.4 degree
brix equivalent. The conversion ratio from 43.4 degree to 42.0 degree is 1.03970. The final
yield for the 1980-81 crop which was reduced by the January 1981 freeze was 1.21 gallons per box
at 43.4 degree brix equivalent.

GRAPEFRUIT: Prospects on October 1, for the 1981-82 season excluding California "Other areas"

grapefruit, indicate a grapefruit crop of 72.1 million boxes (2.69 million metric
tons), 13 percent more than last season and 3 percent above the 1979-80 crop. The California
“Qther area” grapefruit production, which will be forecast as of April 1, accounted for 3.80
million boxes last season.

Florida's grapefruit crop forecast of 55.0 million boxes is 9 percent more than last
season's crop. The Texas crop at 10.5 million boxes is 57 percent higher than the 1980-81
production. Arizona growers expect to harvest 2.60 million boxes, 7 percent less than last
season. The crop in California desert area is forecast at 4.00 million boxes, 6 percent below
the 1980-81 crop. Limited harvest has begun in all States except Arizona, which should start
later this month.

LEMONS: The Arizona-California lemon crop is forecast at 30.1 million boxes (1.04 million

metric tons), 5 percent less than the record crop harvested during the 1980-81 season
but 45 percent greater than the 1979-80 crop. In California, the crop is expected to total 22.3
million boxes, 10 percent less than last season. Picking will begin later this month in the
Central Valley where fruit set and quality are good. Picking is currently limited in southern
coastal areas and light in desert areas where quality is excellent. In Arizona, a crop of 7.80
million boxes is expected, 1] percent greater than the large crop harvested Jast season.

TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-Early citrus fruit, is forecast at 5.50 million
boxes (225 thousand metric tons}, 12 percent more than the 1980-81 crop but 14 percent
Jess than the 1979-80 production.

TANGERINES: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 5.50 million boxes (215 thousand metric

tons), 1 percent less than last season. The Florida forecast, at 3.10 million
boxes, is for that portion of the crop expected to reach a size of 210 fruit per 4/5 bushel
carton by December 1 for Dancy and November 1 for Robinson. (An estimate of utilized crop will
be shown in the February 1982 Crop Production release).

Prospects for California's tangerine crop at 1.70 million boxes are down 9 percent from last
season's production. The crop is showing blight in some areas but other areas appear better
than last season. Harvest should get underway in the desert areas in November. Arizona growers
expect to harvest 700 thousand boxes, the same as was harvested last season.

TEMPLES: Florida temples are forecast at 4.20 million boxes (171 thousand metric tons), 17 per-
cent above last season but 30 percent below the 1979-80 crop.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-18 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SOYBEANS: Production is forecast at 2.11 billion bushels (57.3 million metric tons), up 1

percent from last month's forecast, 18 percent more than last year’s crop but 7
percent below the record crop of 1979. Yield per acre is indicated at 31.5 bushels, 0.3 bushel
more than last month and 5.1 bushels above the 1980 crop.

On October 4th, soybeans were in good to excellent condition in most of the Corn Belt and
fair to mostly good in al) other areas except parts of the Southeast where conditions were only
poor to fair and rain is needed. In the 18 major States, leaves were dropping on 66 percent of
the acreage compared with 74 percent a year ago. Harvesting was underway in all States except
South Carolina. Combining in the 18 major States reached 17% finished by October 4, 10 points
behind last year. Progress of harvest was 10 points less than average in both Indiana and Ohio,
17 points less than average in Minnesota, and 22 points less than average in I1linois.

In the North Central States, yield prospects increased by 3.0 bushels from a month earlier
in Nebraska and 1.0 bushel in Illinois, Iowa and Missouri. In other States, yield prospects
were unchanged fram last month. Towa, Missouri, Kansas, and Nebraska are expecting record
yields. The expected yield in Illinois at 39.0 bushels would equal their previous record set in
1979.

During September, yield prospects declined 1.0 bushel in Louisiana and 2.0 bushels in
Arkansas. However, Alabama is anticipating a 2.0 bushel increase and Mississippi a 1.0 bushel
increase from last month. Yield expectations in the remaining South Central States are
unchanged from a month ago.

Ory conditions in the Southeast caused expected yields in Georgia and South Carolina to

decline from last month by 3.0 bushels and 2.0 bushels, respectively. Yields in Virginia and
Maryland are unchanged while North Carolina's expected yield is up 1.0 bushel from Tast month.

US. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

as

FLAXSEED: Production of flaxseed is forecast at 7.89 million bushels (200 thousand metric tons),
down 2 percent from the September 1 forecast and 3 percent below 1980. Yield is fore-
cast at 12.3 bushels per acre compared with 12.6 bushels last month and 11.6 bushels last year.

Minnesota yield prospects dropped 2.0 bushels per acre from last month while yietds in North
and South Dakota remained unchanged from September 1.

PEANUTS: Peanut production is forecast at 3.87 billion pounds net weight (1.76 million metric
tons), 68 percent above the 2.31 billion pounds (1.05 million metric tons) produced in
1980 and up fractionally from the September 1 forecast. Higher yield prospects in Alabama, North
Carolina and Oklahoma more than offset the yield reduction in Georgia. This October 1 forecast
of production falls only 2 percent short of the record high crop produced in 1979. The produc-
tion will come from 1.53 million acres (621 thousand hectares) for harvest this year, 10 percent
above the 1.40 million acres (566 thousand hectares) harvested in 1980 and 1 percent above 1979.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 198) A-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


TOBACCO

: AREA HARVESTED 1 YIELD : PRODUCTION
STATE fewenenenenane:

rs s IND t
$ 1979 =

1980 t 1981 1980
z POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
ALA 500 1,620 825 B26
CONN 3,200 1,602 1,609 4,925 5,602 5,148
FLA 10,300 1,975 2,250 23,175 20,343 22,050
GA 53,000 2,010 24259 $00,965 110/550 421,500
IND 64100 2,300 24250 11,895 16,790 16,650
KY 173,700 200,900 2,075 24195 343,105 416,962 518,870
ta 80
MO 19,500
MASS 990
Mo 2,500
Nc 337,800 379,
OHIO 9,860
PA 11-200
$c 57,000
TENN 604090
va 67,240
wa 1,500
wis 12,900
us 827,200 917,610 962,450

1/ ESTIMATES DISCONTINUED AFTER 1980 CROP.
2/ ESTIMATES FAR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST,

SUGARBEETS wv
AREA HARVESTED + YIELO PRODUCTION
STATE teen ener ere en ene ne carer nnn ese rec ensee reese ren naen meen en amen eeeenenenene nenene
Fy : ' IND a : t IND $ 3 IND
: 1979 1980 2 1981 2 1979 ¢ 4960 t 1981 1979 3 1980 3 1981

1,000 TONS.

1,000 ACRES

ARIZ W.3 91 12,6 19,2 208 300
CALIF 260.0 7,020
coLg 1760 1,502
1aa.o 3,312

14,5 275

98.0 1,960

257.0 4,369

crrey 860

76.0 1,596

22 46

445.0 2,905

14,4 266

11.0 292

25.2 Sua

+0 ry

44.6 1,024 896

1,188.5 1,225.7 21,996 23,499 25, 663

1/ RELATES TO YEAR UF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR
OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED BEETS IV CALIF,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIE@ FORECAST,

SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED

: PRODUCTION

3 AREA HARVESTED

STATE

t boy $ +
1979 2 1980 1981 ¢ 1979 ¢ 1980 2 1981

1,000 ACRES TONS: 1,000 TONS

FLA 330.8 339.2 345.0 33,4 31.2 34,0 © 10,387 10,592 11,730
Haw 107.9 104,5 106.0 9444 90,0 = 92,3 9,859 9,446 9,779
ua z 262.0 25a.0 260.0 20.6 = 23,3 2b 5,403 5,927 6,760
TEX a 32,0 35.0 37.60 2746 2845 50. 86s 998 1,128
us a 732.7 732.7 THB.6 —-3he2 3648 = 3943 26,532 26, 965 294397

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1987 B15 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES

SEASONAL GROUP

AREA HARVESTED

AND
STATE
1,000 CHT
‘WINTER
TOTAL 4 1.5 11.0 © 200 205 189 2,388 2,363 2,198
SPRING
TOTAL a Thoth 76.4 255 238 265 24,348 17,067 20,752
SUMMER
TOTAL, 2s 9001 95.0 211 189 ato A B47 16,999 19,937
FALL
CALIF . 7.4 18.2 370 © 370570 6,438 6,734
caLo 46.58 40.0 290 30m 319 10,950 12,400
CONN tA 2.0 229 225 255 405 510
TOAHO=10 Sw CO 23.0 24.0 335° 34n 3:28 7)Re0 7,800
SOTHER CO 277.0 30160 «250 260 ato 72,020 12,240
INO 543 2.5 255 220 220 726 550
MAINE 4.0 245 240250 24,960 26,000
MASS 220 220 a0 748 759
MICK 25023588 7,403 7,050
MINN 190 155 1B 9,920 12,420
MONT 240 250250 1725 1,050
NEQR 250 280-280 1,876 2,184
NEV. 330-340 310 4,420 3,410
N YSLONG Is 295 255299 4,794 1307
sUPSTATE 275 250285 6,250 7,260
N DAK 160 140175 15,680 20,650
OHIA 240 210195 1,995 1,785
ORER@MALHEUR CO 370 0 0S 55 3,650 4,450
=OTHER CO aio 435 ano 16,095
Pa 250 190 2u0. 4,180
RI 230 230260 736
§ DAK : o> 185160120 1,072
UTAH 3 5.5 2500 225235 2,270 byaee
vr 2 wv 219 = 200 ao 120 1S4
WASH + 10240 475° 505 ATO 43,935 30,760
wis t 54.0 SiS 320, 5457 ORG = 16,000 174 94U
wyo : See 220255180 tiga 1,340 a8
TOTAL £ 1,071.1 98142 f,084,6 277 «272-275-296, 949 266,428 287,055
:
us $1,270.63 1154.4 1,229,6 2%0 62 ABB «342,497 302,857 529,938

1/ 1981 REVISED,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURREWT YEAR CARRIED FORSARU FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

WINTER POTATOES

AREA PLANTED 1/

CALIF

FLA

TOTAL

CALIF

FLA 195 155 1,658
: 205 189 2,363

1/ INCLUDES ACREAGE PLANTED IN PRECEDING FALL.
2/ REVISED,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 8-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


SEPTEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

An early beginning of seasonal rains in the Pacific Northwest resulted in above-normal
precipitation from northern California through Washington State. A series of cold fronts and
showers from the Pacific broke the Tong heat wave in the West. Freezing temperatures pushed
southward through the Plains from the Dakotas to Nebraska and cool weather covered most of the
East. Rain was above normal along the Appalachians and from the Great Lakes through the
Northeast but much of the East, the Plains, and the South were drier than normal.

FIRST WEEK,..A cool air mass pushed into the Plains and moved slowly southward and eastward,
triggering showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. A ridge of high pressure along the
east coast kept the heaviest rain along and to the west of the Appalachians. Torrential rains
flooded parts of southeastern Michigan and northern Ohio. Some areas along the western slopes
of the Appalachians accumulated over 4 inches of rain during the week. Showers and
thunderstorms were scattered throughout the Southwest and the Rockies. Most of the Plains and
Mississippi Valley averaged cooler than normal and parts of the northern Plateau were as much -as
6° cooler than normal but the middle and southern Plateau remained warm.

SECOND WEEK...A cold front moved rapidly through the Plains and eastern United States early
in the week and triggered showers and thunderstorms along its way. The heaviest rain occurred
from western Texas to Wisconsin as the front displaced moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and
from the Appalachians eastward where the cooler air encountered Atlantic moisture. Some parts
of the East had only light showers, but spotty thunderstorms produced downpours in other
areas~-especially southern Florida. Showers were an everyday occurrence over the central and
southern Plateau and Rockies. Temperatures were warm all week in the West and warmed rapidly
through the Plains as the cool air moved eastward.

THIRD WEEK...Another mass of cold air moved south and southeastward out of central Canada
and brought some of the coldest weather so far this fall to areas east of the Rockies. Freezing
temperatures pushed as far south as Nebraska. Average temperatures for the week were 9 to 12!
colder than normal in eastern Texas and Oklahoma. The cooler weather stayed east of the Rockies
and the West continued warmer than normal. The most rain fell from eastern Texas to the Great
Lakes and eastward. A low-pressure system off the coast of Virginia poured heavy rain into that
area and heavy thunderstorms again drenched southern Florida.

FOURTH WEEK...Seasonal rains began in the Pacific Northwest as a series of cold fronts moved
in from the Pacific. Showers fell from northern California through the northern Rockies and
then moved into the Plains. Snow fell in the higher elevations of the Rockies as cooler air
moved in to break the long heat wave there. While the northwest was chilly from the new
invasion of cool air and the East remained cold, southerly breezes carried warm air into the
Plains and Southwest. A low-pressure system deepened off the coast of New England and dumped 2
to 4 inches of rain over that area. Strong thunderstorms again spread very heavy rain over
southern Florida. (Prepared by NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility).

WINTER WHEAT SEEDING

Winter wheat seeding for 1982 harvest reached 60 percent complete by October 4, slightly
ahead of last year and average. Seeding was underway in all States except California, where the
crop is normally seeded later. Conditions were favorable for germination in all areas except in
parts of the northern Plains and Montana where growers delayed seeding as they waited for
improved soil moisture conditions. Progress in Montana fell 30 percentage points behind average
at the end of September with seeding only 45 percent finished. However, seeding picked up early
in October as most areas of the State received needed rain. By October 4, progress was only 15
points behind average.

At the end of September, planting was underway in all areas of Kansas and running ahead of
schedule in many areas. Moisture has been generally adequate to germinate seed and establish
stands. Producers had seeded 75 percent of the acreage by October 4. This is 5 points ahead of
last year and 10 points ahead of average.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS*
October I, 1981

indicates current supply of pasture feed for grazing on non-irrigated pastures and ranges relative fo that expected
from existing stands under very favorable weather Conditions.

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITIONS”
October 1, 1980

FZ] Poor to fair
5 very poor
(EZI severe drought
EE extreme cxought

Ya
‘tindicates current supply of pasture teed for grazing on non-irfigated pastures and ranges relative to that expected
‘from existing stands under very favorable weather Conditions,

USDA, ‘SRS

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-6 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CORN FOR GRAIN

: AREA HARVESTED : YIELD

STATE we mee reer ew wenn ee nen e wenn eeseeoeneaneccce.
: 3 Ind ¢
1979 5 1960 3 1981 2 1979 1980 3 1981
: 1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
502 405 520 61.0 36.0 55.0 $0,622 14,580 28,600
4s 40 30 115.0 100.0 130,0 S175 4,000 3,900
35 37 42 58.0 2.0 65,0 2,030 1,056 2,750
260 270 275° «11760 = 135.0 © 130.0 $0,420 56,450 35,750
760 760 830 127.0 «118.0 ©) 132,0 96,520 89,680 109,560
159 177 102.0 72.0 75,0 16,218 12,744 13,725
339 328 53.0 a7eo 45.0 17,907 15,416 16,425
1,550 1,300 65,0. 42,0 50,0 100,750 54,600 72,500
50 50 68.0 94.0 92,0 4,400 4,700 4,876
11,050 41,460 128.0 93.0 129.9 1,414,400 1,065,780 1,457,700
6,030 6,280 112.0 96.0 106,0 675,560 602,880 636,000
13,100 13,300 127.0 110.0 126.0 1,663,700 1,463,000 1,728,000
1,470 1,240 117.0 94,0  3118,0 171,990 114,560 155,400
1,300 1,480 102.0 70.0 100.0 1327600 103,400 153,000
41 30 5440 46.0 60,0 2214 1,360 1,680
595 e40 660 99.0 72.0 96.0 5B, 905 46,080 6S, 360
24500 2,600 2,800 95.0 95.0 95,0 237,500 247,000 266,000
6,060 6,290 6,760  100,0 97.0 110,09 606,000 610,150 737,000
110 BB 130 52.0 26.0 58.0 $720 2,404 7,540
2,330 2,070 1,950 104.0 55.0 112.0 239,990 109,710 214,400
10 Rg 9 77.0 74.0 75.0 770 592 67S
7,150 7,100 6,900 11960 85.0 114,0 8227250 603,500 736,600
95 103 125 9060 75.0 86,0 41550 7,725 19,750
74 85 50 109.0 85.0 95.0 8,066 7,225 7,600
oso 730 8u0 9260 93,0 95.0 59,800 67,890 74,400
1,690 1,730 1,836 7660 60.0 73.0 128,440 103,800 153,590
313 290 450 To.0 54.0 80.0 23,768 16,620 36,000
3,630 34900 3,400 11520 115.0 95,0 417,450 449,700 361,000
75 75 65 11040 70.0 95.0 4,250 5,250 6,175
12 By a5 105.0 106.0 115.0 1ePov 1,6 e725,
1,260 1,260 14350 95-0 75.9 95,0 121,600 96,900 123,690
sc 509 $15 S70 60.0 4860 69.0 40,720 24,720 54,200
S DAK 2,850 2,306 2,306 74,0 53.0 62.) 219,900 = 121,909 = 142,600
TENN 620 640 660 8500 49,0 85.0 Se,700 28,800 56,100
TEX 1,260 1,300 1,250 165.0 90.0 115.0 132,300 117,000 143,756
UTAH 16 15 15 94,0 100.0 95.0 1,504 1,500 1,425
VT
VA 615 595 660 S360 55.0 88.0 51,045 32,725 52,800
WASH 97 9a 10@ 128.0 © 120.0 t1S,0 11,931 1t.200 11,500
woVA 59 98 63 8949 84.0 90.0 5,251 5,162 5670
wis $4080 3,350 3,500 103.0 104.0 108,0 317,240 348,400 378, 000
wo 29 37 35 57.0 97,0 87,0 2,523 3,589 3,045
us 72,400 75,061 74,143 109.7 91.0 109,0 7,938,819 6,647,554 &,081,44t

1/ ESTIMATES FOX CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIEK FORECAST.
2/ ALL ACREAGE HARVESTED IS FOR SILAGE.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-1 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


The corn crop continued in good to excellent condition in the Corn Belt and by October 1,
most corn was safe from a killing frost with the exception of some Tate planted fields in the
northern Corn Belt--particularly Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Development of the crop is stil?
lagging behind normal in many of the major producing States and although scattered frost has
occurred in portions of the Corn Belt, most of the crop was far enough along to escape damage.
In the 17 major producing States, 85 percent of the crop was mature and 17 percent had been
harvested by October 4. Harvesting was 10 points behind last year and 2 points behind average
but is now underway in all major States. In portions of the northern Corn Belt, particularly
Michigan and Wisconsin, heavy rains occurred in September and the fields are too wet for
harvesting. Ory weather is needed to enable farmers to get equipment in the fields.

SORGHUM FOR GRAIN: Production of grain sorghum for 1981 is forecast at 877 million bushels (22.3

million metric tons), up 49 percent from a year earlier, and 8 percent above
the 1979 crop. Yield per harvested acre is forecast at a record 64.4 bushels, compared with
46.2 bushels per acre in 1980, and the previous record of 62.7 bushels in 1979.

On October 4, the sorghum crop was mature on 70 percent of the acreage in the 7 major
Producing States and 33 percent of the crop was harvested.

Late season conditions in the Midwest continue good, but possible damage by light early,
frosts has been a concern in Northwest Kansas. Compared with a month earlier, yield prospects
rose 3 bushels in Oklahoma, and 2 bushels in Kansas and Missouri. The Texas sorghum harvest is
on schedule across the State. Harvest in the Panhandle is making progress. However, the mild
damp weather has kept the grain moisture level too high for harvest in some areas.

ALL WHEAT: The combined production of winter, other spring and durum wheat in 1981 is estimated
at a record high 2.75 billion bushels (74.8 million metric tons), 16 percent more
than last year but virtually unchanged from the September 1 forecast. A 14 percent increase
from 1980 in acreage for harvest combined with a moderately higher yield per acre resulted in
the record high production. Nationally, yields are expected to average 34.1 bushels per
harvested acre compared with 33.4 bushels in 1980, and the record high 34.2 bushels in 1979.

OURUM WHEAT: Durum wheat production is forecast at a record high 182 million bushels (4.96 mil-

lion metric tons), up 68 percent from last year but 3 percent below the September
1 forecast. Yields are expected to average 32.2 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushel per acre from
Jast month. This compares with 22.4 bushels last year, and 27.1 bushels in 1979. Average yield
was down 1 bushel per acre from last month in North Dakota and down 2.0 bushels in Montana.
Minnesota registered a 1 bushel per acre increase. Yield was unchanged in South Dakota. Ourum
wheat harvest was completed well ahead of normal in all producing States. In North Dakota, 97
percent of the acreage was combined by mid-September compared with 69 percent last year and the
average of 74 percent. Conditions for the completion of harvest were good with a minimal amount
of sprout damage.

OTHER SPRING WHEAT: Production of spring wheat other than durum is forecast at a record high 508

million bushels (13.8 million metric tons), 37 percent more than last year
and 19 percent more than 1979. The October 1 forecast is 1 percent above a month earlier.
Yields are expected to average 30.8 bushels per acre, up fractionally from the September 1
forecast. This compares with 25.3 bushels last year, and 28.2 bushels in 1979. Average yield
was up 2 bushels per acre from last month in Minnesota which was partially offset by a 3 bushel
per acre decline in Idaho. Yield was unchanged in all other producing States. Conditions for
the completion of harvest were good in North Dakota with harvest of spring wheat other than
durum 98 percent completed by mid-September--well ahead of last year's 82 percent and the normal
of 85 percent. Warvest was virtually completed in all major producing States by the end of
September.

RICE: As of October 1, rice production is forecast at a record high 179 million hundredweight

(8.11 million metric tons), virtually the same as the September 1 forecast but 23 percent
above the previous record high production of 145 million hundredweight (6.58 million metric
tons) set in 1980.

Nationally, yields are expected to average 4788 pounds per acre compared with 4677 pounds
last month and 4403 pounds last year. Yields are above last year in all six rice producing
States, with Texas showing the largest increase.

Harvest in Arkansas was 77 percent complete by October 4 compared with 57 percent last year
and the average of 55 percent. California's harvest is somewhat ahead of 1980. Harvest was
complete in Texas. In the other rice producing States, harvest progress was ahead of Jast year
and average.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-9 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


corTtun

AREA HARVESTED 3 YIELD

PRODUCTION 1/7

: Ted ¢ 3 IND
1979 3 1980 V9AL 3 1979 3 1980 1981
? 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 BALES 2/
COTTON, UPLAND
ALA 2 305.0 321.0 305.0 510 ait abo Bea.o 275.0 390.0
ARIZ 575.0 5869,0 599,0 1,069 1,103 1,202 1,280.0 1,354,0 1,500.0
ARK : 530.0 645.0 F000 gag 330 S20 606.0 4aa,o 650.0
CALIF 1,635, 1,500.0 1,490.0 1,000 995 1,063 3,408.0 5,109.0 3,300.0
FLA Bi $44 a4 12.7 505 elo ss2 aio mS 14.6
GA : 1500 160.0 170.0 4b agK 367 152.0 Beso 130.0
La Doled 695.0 The 394 954 OIV—G 406.0 360.0
MISs 14125,0 1,220.6 657 or) 600 1,437, 1,143.0 1,525.0
“0 241.0 190.0 soe 353 4o7 157.0 177,0 185.0
NEV 4 1.0 655 40 655 165 1.? 1.5
N MEX 120.0 125.0 346 nee 499 104.0 107.0 130.0
NC 65.0 80,0 455 381 480 43.0 92,0 B0.0
OKLA 565.0 63040 ase t74 404 $22.0 205.0 550.0
sc 12a. AL8.G 54a $3 543 116.0 17,0 135.9
TENN 275.0 310.0 397 349 587 171.0 200.0 259.0
TEX 6,800.0 6 450,0 7,100.0 489 233 39200 Sy515.0  — 3,320,0 5,300.0
va 33 3 3 320 $20 460 . 2 3
us 12,741.58 13,143.1 13,706.61 547 au2 S39 14,550.7 11,017,9 15, 381.4
COTTON, AMER@PIMA
BRTZ ass 42 33.6 743 Bea Ano
CALIF 3 al ol “0 480 ago ry
N MEX 14,98 7.0 7.0 ake 4o4d 4743
TEX 30,9 22,8 iad 418 533 665,
us 8901 71,7 60.3 351 698 755
COTTON, ALL
ALA F 305.0 321.0 365.0 S10 aii 460 324.0
ARIZ : b1K.3 bs1al 632.4 1,046 1,055 1,184 1, 547,0
ARK 550.0 645.0 600.0 5a9 330 Sea 606.0
CALIF 1,635.1 1,500.1 = 1,490,0 1,000 995° 1,063 — $, 40841
FLA 569 12,7 505 b10 $52 .

160.0 170,40 abe 258 367 192.0
560.0 695.0 We 394 453 690.0
1,125.0 1,220,0 6o7 4BB 600 1,437.0

190.0 550 352 407 157.0
del 645 640 655

152.0 300 ago 498

40.9 435 sha ado

630.0 432 174 404

114.6 310 308 949 77,0

510.0 $07 349 S87 200,0 250.0
Fe119,5 3a9 253 395 $4345.09 5,627.0
3 320 gen 430 oe 3

547 40a S40

1/ PRODUCTION GINNED AND TO KE GTNRED,
2/ GRORLH, NET WEIGHT BALES,
3/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAN CARKIED FORWAKO FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

COTTONSEED

PRODUCTION

1,000 TONS

4,470.5

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-7 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CROP PRODUCTION (=

Board
Released: October 9, 1981
3:00 P.M. ET

Statistical Reporting
Service

U.S. Department
of Agriculture

Washington, D.C.
20250

Weneionrs

CORN production is forecast at a record high 8.08 billion bushels (205 million
metric tons), up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast and 22 percent
more than last year. The October 1 forecast is up 2 percent from the pre-
vious record set in 1979. The 90 percent confidence interval for this
1981 production forecast is 7.54 to 8.62 billion bushels.

SORGHUM GRAIN production is forecast at 877 million bushels (22.3 million
metric tons), up 49 percent from last year's small crop.

FEED GRAIN production (corn, sorghum, oats, and barley combined) is expected to
total 245 million metric tons, up 24 percent from last year's production
of 198 million metric tons.

SOYBEAN production is forecast at 2.11 billion bushels (57.3 million metric
tons), up 1 percent from last month and 18 percent above last year's
crop. The 90 percent confidence interval for this 1981 production fore-
cast is 1.98 to 2.23 billion bushels.

OILSEED production (soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, flaxseed and sunflowers com-
bined) is expected to total 66.9 million metric tons, up 20 percent from
last year.

FOOD GRAIN production (wheat, rye, and rice combined) is forecast at 83.4
million metric tons, 17 percent above 1980.

ALL COTTON production is forecast at 15.5 million bales, 39 percent greater
than in 1980 and virtually unchanged from September 1. The 90 percent
confidence interval for this 1981 production forecast is 14.0 to 16.9 mil-
lion bales.

FALL POTATO production is forecast at 287 million cwt (13.0 million metric
tons), 8 percent above 1980 but 3 percent below 1979.

ORANGE production is forecast at 221 million boxes (8.67 million metric tons),
10 percent less than the 1980-81 season.

SUGAR CROPS: Production is forecast at 25.7 million tons (23.3 million metric

tons) for sugarbeets and 29.4 million tons (26.7 million metric
tons) for sugarcane. The forecast production for both crops is 9 percent
greater than in 1980.

CrPr 2-2 (10-81) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


U.S. COTTON PRODUCTION

18 YR AVG, 72-81

o

COTTONSEED: Cottonseed production, based on a three year average lint-seed ratio, is forecast at
6.15 million tons (5.58 million metric tons), compared with 4.47 million tons (4.06

million metric tons) produced in 1980.

HAY: Al hay production in 1981 is forecast at 1417 million tons (128 million metric tons), up 3

percent from the August 1 forecast and 8 percent above 1980, but 4 percent below the
record production of 1979. All hay yield is forecast at 2.38 tons per acre compared with 2.21
tons in 1980 and 2.40 tons in 1979. Ample moisture and cooler temperatures provided good
growing conditions but poor curing weather for much of the Nation. The rapid growth of hay
crops permitted additiona) cuttings in many areas of the northeastern half of the Nation. Ory
conditions persisted in the Southwest and Southeast. There was little regrowth through
September.

Production of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures is forecast at 82.4 million tons (74.7 million
metric tons), 3 percent more than a year ago but 7 percent below the record 1979 crop. Average
yield at 3.15 tons per acre compares with 3.04 tons a year earlier and the record yield of 3.19
tons in 1979.

All_other_ hay production is forecast at 59.0 million tons (53.5 million metric tons), up 3
percent from the August 1 forecast and 15 percent above a year ago, but 1 percent below the 1979
record.

ORY EDIBLE BEANS: Production of dry edible beans in 1981 is forecast at 31.0 million hundred-

, weight (1.40 million metric tons), up 19 percent from last year. Although
still a record high, the crop shrank 3 percent from September 1 expectations. Persistent, heavy
rains destroyed considerable acreage in Michigan and dampened yield prospects in northern States.
Area for harvest now stands at 2.17 million acres (879 thousand hectares), up 18 percent from
1980 but 3 percent less than estimated last month. The average yield, at 1426 pounds per acre,
is down 1 percent from last month but fractionally above last year.

Heavy rainfall halted Michigan harvest with only 50 percent of the crop in by October 4th
compared with 74 percent last year and 72 percent normally. Many fields in the “thumb” were
completely flooded out while others that were harvested suffered heavy grading pick-out. Rain
also slowed harvest in New York. Wet weather damaged some fields in North Dakota, but harvest
generally has progressed ahead of normal. In Nebraska, harvest was more than 80 percent
complete by October 1 and overall quality appears good. Colorado and Wyoming are virtually
finished with their cutting and windrowing. Pick-up combining is nearing completion in Wyoming
and two-thirds finished in Colorado. California dry bean fields are maturing well. Harvest
progress is good in the San Joaquin Valley, but has been delayed slightly by rain in northern
districts. Washington and Idaho enjoyed excellent weather and harvest will soon be
completed--some areas ahead of schedule.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-12 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


The forecast for the Virginia - North Carolina area is 745 million pounds, up 74 percent
from the short 1980 crop. Yield is expected to average 2719 pounds per acre, up 1117 pounds
from the 1980 average. North Carolina's prospects improved during September and the October 1
yield forecast, at 2/00 pounds per acre, is up 100 pounds from a month ago. With very favorable
harvest conditions, peanut harvest was well underway by the end of September.

The crop in the Southeast is expected to total 2.38 billion pounds, up 67 percent from the
meager 1.42 billion pounds produced last year. Acreage for harvest at 848 thousand acres is 8
percent above the 788 thousand acres harvested last year. Yields in the Southeast are expected
to average 2812 pounds per acre, 1004 pounds above 1980. Alabama registered a 200-pound per
acre gain in yield from September 1 while Georgia's yield fell 100 pounds. Mostly dry conditions
and very cool night-time temperatures during September retarded growth in Georgia. The lack of
moisture has also caused some ground to become hard which is complicating harvest of Georgia's
dryland peanuts.

Growers in the Southwest are expected to harvest 745 million pounds of peanuts, 64. percent
more than last year. A return to more normal conditions has increased acreage for harvest
from 344 thousand acres last year to 413 thousand acres this year -- a 20 percent increase.
Peanut harvest is off to a good start. The Oklahoma crop was 40 percent mature as of October
1. Recent rains have boosted yield prospects in the Cross Timbers area of Texas while fields in
the Edwards Plateau are showing some damage from excessive moisture.

SUNFLOWERS: Production of all sunflowers is forecast at 4.49 billion pounds (2.04 million metric

tons), up 20 percent from 1980 but 38 percent below the record crop of 1979. The
1981 acreage for harvest at 3.92 million acres {1.58 million hectares), is up 6 percent from last
year. The prospective yield at 1148 pounds per acre is up 132 pounds from the 1980 average.
Yields are forecast at 1250 pounds per acre in Minnesota, 1150 pounds in North Dakota, 980 pounds
in South Dakota and 900 pounds in Texas.

COTTON: United States cotton production is forecast at 15.5 million bales based on October 1

conditions. This is 39 percent above last year's drought reduced crop but down
fractionally from the September 1 forecast. €xpected production consists of 15.4 million bales
of Upland cotton and 94.9 thousand bales of American-Pima.

Harvested acreage is estimated at 13.8 million acres (5.57 million hectares) in 1981, 4
Percent more than last year. Average yield of lint per harvested acre is forecast at 540
pounds, 136 pounds above last year.

Production in the Southeastern States -- Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and South
Carolina -- is forecast at 695 thousand bales, up 42 percent from 1980 and 10 percent above the
September 1 forecast. September weather was cool but dry and balls opened slowly. Harvest was
in ful? swing by October 1.

Growers in the Delta States -- Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, and Tennessee --
expect to harvest 3.41 million bales in 1981, up 61 percent from last year and the same as on
September 1. Harvest began in Louisiana and Mississippi in early September and was about two
weeks ahead of normal by October 1. Picking is underway in Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee.
Early reports from gins indicate a high quality crop. Staple length was shorter than expected
in some early harvested fields in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Upland production in Texas and Oklahoma is forecast at 6.33 million bales, 80 percent above
last year but down 1 percent from September 1. Harvest is gaining momentum in the Blacklands
and Central Texas. Quality is lower than expected in some areas. Cool temperatures slowed
development on the High Plains. Harvest is beginning on dryland acreage in Oklahoma.

In the Western States -- Arizona, California and New Mexico -- Upland production is forecast
at 4.93 million bales, 8 percent more than in 1980 and unchanged from September 1. The crop is
maturing about two weeks earlier than normal in Arizona and California. Harvest was in full
swing in Arizona by October 1 with about 10 percent of the crop harvested. Harvest was
beginning in California and New Mexico. Cotton made good progress in the San Joaquin Valley but
insects reduced potential yields in Southern California.

The Bureau of the Census reports 1,724,621 running bales ginned prior to October 1 compared
with 1,311,138 bales ginned to the same date in 1980, and 916,370 bales ginned in 1979,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1987 A-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA




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CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981


Light to heavy amounts of rain fell over most areas of Texas during September. Seeding
activities were slowed because of wet weather, but most areas needed more soil moisture to
insure good growth of fall seeded grains. Seeding was 51 percent complete by October 4,
compared with 48 percent last year and 52 percent average. Stands in early-seeded fields were
uniform and in good condition, but a moisture shortage slowed growth in south central Texas. In
Nebraska, seeding began early in September and was 98 percent finished by October 4--8 points
ahead of normal. Colorado producers had seeded 91 percent of the 1982 crop, lagging the average
progress by 4 points. Some areas of Colorado received scattered rainfall and the crop was
generally in good to very good condition, Planting in South Oakota reached 94 percent by
October 4, lagging the average by 4 points. Seeding in Indiana and Ohio was slowed by late corn
and soybean harvests.

ROW CROP PROGRESS

Corn and soybeans were in good to excellent condition in most of the Corn Belt and fair to
mostly good in all other areas except parts of the Southeast where conditions were only poor to
fair because of dry weather. Frost touched parts of the Corn Belt at the end of September and
freezing temperatures again invaded the area in early October. Most of the corn crop was far
enough along to escape damage but some lJate~planted soybeans may have been damaged.

Corn was 85 percent mature by October 4. Seventeen percent of the crop had been harvested,
10 points behind last year and 2 points behind average. Harvesting was underway in all major
States, with progress ranging from 2 percent complete in Wisconsin to 86 percent in Georgia.

Leaves were dropping on 66 percent of the soybean acreage by October 4, compared with 74
percent last year. Harvesting was underway in all States except South Carolina. Combining
reached 17 percent finished by October 4--10 points behind Tast year. Progress of harvest was
10 points less than average in both Indiana and Ohio, 17 points less in Minnesota, and 22 points
less than average in I1linois.

Cotton was in fair to good condition except in Georgia, where conditions were poor to fair
due to dry weather. By October 4, bolls were opening on 71 percent of the acreage in the major
producing States compared with 74 percent last year. Harvest was active with 18 percent of the
crop harvested by October 4, lagging last year by 5 points. Harvest neared completion in the
southern half of Texas and stalk destruction was underway.

CORN: Production of corn for grain is forecast at a record high 8.08 billion bushels (205 mil~
lion metric tons), up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast and 22 percent above last
year's drought stricken crop.

Yield per acre is forecast at 109.0 bushels, up 1.9 bushels from last month's yield and 18.0
bushel greater than last, year. If realized, the yield will be the second highest of record,
exceeded only by the 1979 crop yield of 109.7 bushels. Of the major producing States, yields
are at record high levels in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin.

445. CORN PRODUCTION

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1987 A-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


DURUM WHEAT

PRODUCTION

AREA HARVESTED

STATE were were nnnn econ n awn emcwenne
: IND 3
1989 ¢ 1981 = 1979 3 1980 3 1988 = 1979 3 1980 : 1981
1,000 ACRES BUSHELS: 1,000 BUSHELS
ARIZ 2/3 70 155 198 75.0 80.0 81.0 5,250 12,400 16,038
CALIF 1/2 4s 100 165 80. 76,0 89.0 3,600 7,800 14,685
MINN 3 7 120 135 37.0 28,0 39,0 2,849 3,360 5,205
MONT : 325 400 47s 21.0 19,0 25.0 6,625 7,600 11,875
N OAK 3,250 3,850 4,450 26.0 19,0 29,0 64,500 73,150 129,050
SOAK 1b5 215 225 22.0 19.0 23.0 3,630 4,085 5,175
us 3,952 4,R40 5,548 4 32.2 106,654 108/395 182,088
1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,
OTHER SPRING WHEAT
3 AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION
STATE Ieeennne weer wna n wren nnn nnn newer nnn ene nn enero nnn nance mere n nen nnennnansereenensce=
: z IND 3 IND : IN
: 1979 3 190 3 1981 1979 § 1980 2 1981 1979 2 1980 1981
1,009 ACRES BUSHELS 1,000 BUSHELS
at as 40 64.0 60.0 59.0 2,624 2,700 2,360
620 640 555 62.0 69.0 62.0 38,440 44,160 34,410
2,450 26960 3,300 35.0 32.5 41.0 85,790 96,850 155,300
2,550 2,550 2,750 20.5 22.5 26.0 52,275 57,375 71,500
13 v7 16 50.0 0.0 90.0 650 1,020 600
6,230 5,700 7,200 26.9 18.5 26.0 165,095 105,450 201,600
245 150 1t5 38,0 36,0 34.0 9,310 5,400 4,370
24990 2, 0b0 2,250 22.0 18.0 21.0 45,980 $7,440 47,250
40 30 30 4160 48.0 1,640 1,440 1,410
766 410 229 5009 42,0 25,400 17,220 6,360
16 23 aa 33.0 31.0 528 713 868
480 252 264
426,172 370,020 508,492

L/ ESTIMATES FU CUXRENT YEAR CARKTED FORWARD FROM EARLIEK FORECAST,

AREA PLANTED, SOYBEANS 1/

7,000 ACRES : 1,000 ACRES
ALA : 2,200 : 5,700
ARK : 4,800 : 1,830
OEL 265 : 200
FLA 475 : 20
GA : 2,450 : 2,030
TLt 9,300 : 210
IND 4,400 3 3,800
IOWA 8,300 : 350
KANS 1,550 : 12
Ky : 1,650 : 1,700
tA 3,450 : 780
wD : 400 : 2,650
MICH 960 3 700
MINN : 4,800 : 620
MISS 4,000 : 335

V/ REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981

70,037

CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES: VARIETIES GROWN - 1981
The Crop Reporting Service conducts potato objective yield surveys in 11 major fall producing
States. These 11 States accounted for 87 percent of the 1980 U.S. fall potato production. All produc-
ing areas of each State are represented in the sample in proportion to planted acreage of potatoes.
Variety information in the table below is derived from data reported for farms in the objective yield
sample. These data are intended to provide current information on varieties and are not designated as
official estimates of the Crop Reporting Board.

FALL POTATOES: PERCENT OF MAJOR VARIETIES PLANTED,
SELECTED STATES, 1981 CROP 1/

SECOND FOURTH

COLO sRUSSET BURBANK = 44,1 : CENTENNIAL 39.4 :RED McCLURE V5:
IQAHO sRUSSET BURBANK 95.6 : 7 :
MAINE :SUPERIOR 31.1 :RUSSET BURBANK 19,0 :KATAHDIN 15.4 :ONTARIO 12.2
MICH sRUSSET BURBANK 32.0 : MONONA 12.3 :KATAHDIN 9.6 :ONAWAY 8.7
MINN sNORCHIP 25.9 :RUSSET BURBANK 23.3 :KENNEBEC 17.2 sPONTIAC 13.2
NY TSUPERIOR 26.4 :KATAHDIN 25.3 :NORCHIP 11.9 :MONONA 7.4
N DAK :NORCHIP 45.3 sKENNEBEC 15.7 :NORLAND 11.2 :PONTIAC 9.4
OREG iRUSSET BURBANK 79.3 :NORGOLD RUSSET 8.0 :RUSSET BUTTE S.1:
PA :NORCHIP 27.1 :KATAHDIN 26.5 :SUPERIOR 12.9 :KENNEBEC 11.9
WASH :RUSSET BURBANK 78,7 :NORGOLD RUSSET 12.6 : :

SUPERIOR 19.5 :NORGOLD RUSSET 11.5 :NORLAND 9.3
J/ REPORTED BY FARMS SELECTED FOR OBJECTIVE YIELD SAMPLING,

Wis :RUSSET BURBANK 36.3

FALL POTATOES - PERCENT HARVESTED TO OCTOBER 1, 19817

HARVESTED HARVESTED
TO OCT 1 TO OCT 1
PERCENT
CALIF 3 3 : 76
COLO : 33 : 50
CONN : 57 : 33
IDAHO 3 25 2 60
IND 3 60 : 56
MAINE 3 50 : 66
MASS 3 56 3 50
MICH : 60 : 75
MINN : 72 : 50
MONT 3 30 3 84
NEBR : 70 : 38
NEV : 25 g
NY + LONG ISLAND 55 : 45
- UPSTATE 52 3

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 8-21 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USOA


INOEX

PAGE

Pee
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APPLES ....eeeeee
BEANS, DRY EDIBLE .
CITRUS FRUITS.....

CORN FOR GRAIN
COTTON .......
COTTONSEED ...
CRANBERRIES ...
FILBERTS .....

FLAXSEED ..
GRAPES .....
HAY, ALL ce cceeecseeceeseceeeees

HAY, ALFALFA & ALFALFA MIXTURES
HAY, OTHER .scecccececceeeeeseee
HOPS .
PAPAYAS .ocsscccceccceee se eeeeaceee
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION ....
PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION MAPS .
PEANUTS FOR NUTS ...,..0005 .
PECANS ..cccccccccccccceesucescteeeeseeeeseeeees

POTATOES ...eececcceeseeees vee
POTATOES, VARIETIES GROWN ....2...00.
PRUNES AND PLUMS .......000-
RICE oe ceeeecceeee wee
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN ...
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS ..
SUGARBEETS .......005
SUGARCANE FOR SUGAR AND SEED .
SUNFLOWERS ...ceeeeceeesseeeee
SWEETPOTATOES ...cceeeeeeees
TOBACCO BY CLASS AND TYPE ..
TOBACCO BY STATES .....ccceseceseeecceceeseees
US SUMMARY .......
WHEAT, ALL .....e0e
WHEAT, BY CLASSES .
WHEAT, DURUM .
WHEAT, SPRING ....esccceeeecceeeeeeeeeeeee seeeeeeeeeeee

a
1

a
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=n sm

rreyeretrrrraryed

PHPNMWWUWHMATMANNNOAHNOAMMOROOW ONC

PREP EP PPP PTA M PORE UDR TRHT TD TDO
ny —n~

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-22 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL QTHER HAY

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

STATE aenennsesesee- eee aeee
: IND : IND
: 1979 ¢ 1980 1981 1979 = 1980 1981 1979 ¢ 1980 = 1981
: 1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
ALA 2 669 625 660 1,80 1.65 1.80 1/188 1,031 1,188
ARIZ 173 39 30 2s 2.30 3.50 4,00 69 105 100
ARK 3 860 Bas 870 1.85 1.30 1.85 1591 1,096 1,619
CALIF = ¢ $10 520 515 1.95 2.20 2.00 995 1,144 1,030
coLo : 750 720 680 1.50 1630 . 1,40 1,825 936 952
CONN 17 64 65 65 1,90 1.75 1.85 122 114 320
DEL ve it Mw 10 1,90 1.79 1.70 a1 19 17
FLA ast 269 240 250 2.30 2.30 2.20 619 ss2 $50
GA 3 450 460 471s 2,60 1.60 2.00 1,170 756 950
I0AHO) ft 300 290 ato 1,05 2.00 2.00 495 560 540
Tt z 44g aao 435 2.00 1.95 2.10 A80 a58 a14
IND 3 aes 425 405 2,05 2220 2.20 BT) 935 B91
TOWA : S20 510 490 2,55 2.30 2,60 1,326 1,173 1,274
KANS 3 1,300 1,200 1,220 1,80 1.15 1.80 2,340 1,380 2,196
ky 3 1,390 1,360 1,350 1.89 1.75 1.85 2,502 2,389 2,498
LA : 372 342 387 2,20 1.70 2.00 818 581 714
MAINE 17/3 195 198 197 1.70 1.60 1.75 332 317 345
MD : 171 165 160 2.20 2010 2620 376 347 352
MASS 1/2 92 92 93 2,25 2.10 2.15 207 193 200
MICH 3 290 290 270 2.10 2.00 2.10 609 580 S67
MINN : 800 850 860 2.00 1670 1.90 1,600 1,445 1,639
MISS 3 660 650 660 1.95 1.60 1.90 1,287 1,040 1,254
Q z 2,900 2,750 2,880 1.65 1220 1.90 4,765 3,300 5,472
MONT 2 1,080 1,000 1,000 1.30 1.35 1.35 1,404 1,350 1,350
NEBR z 2,050 2,050 2,050 4.10 1.00 1.05 2,255 2,050 2,153
NEV 3 280 265 270 1.25 1.20 1.10 350 34a 297
NAR ast 73 13 73 1.90 1.95 2.00 139 142 146
NJ ows 19 66 62 2.20 2.00 2.00 174 132 124
N MEX I/t 14 70 75 1.30 1260 1.70 96 182 126
NY : 1,410 1,400 1,340 1.90 2.00 2.00 2,679 24800 2,680
nc z 353 357 357 1,60 1.50 1,60 565 536 S71
N DAK 3 1,500 1,600 1,500 1.30 0.85 1.30 1,950 1,360 1,950
OHTO 3 860 390 890 2.15 2.15 2.00 179849 19914 1,780
OKLA : 1,440 1,150 1,220 1,70 1.10 1.70 2,448 1,265 2,074
OREG z 645 645 639 1,60 1.85 1.65 1,932 Ly t93 1,040
PA : 2,120 1,110 1,095 1,69 1.80 1.75 1,998 1,998 1,926
RI ist 8 8 8 1.70 1.50 1,65 14 42 13
$c : ais 208 21s 2,10 1.70 1.90 452 354 409
S DAK 3 1,800 1,860 1,880 1.15 1.15 1.00 2,070 2,139 1,880
3 1,135 1,080 1,140 1,95 1.40 1.55 1,759 1,512 1,767
3 2,600 2,500 2,650 2.40 1.90 2.70 64240 4,750 7,155
isi 123 125 125 1,80 1.80 1.80 2at 225 225
wt 340 34s 345 1,70 1.85 1.90 S78 638 656
3 885 880 870 1,70 1.60 1.65 1,505 14408 1,436
3 350 360 355 1.95 2.10 2.00 683 756 710
3 500 515 510 1,20 1.50 1.50 600 773 765
3 930 650 750 2.50 2.20 2.25 2,325 1,870 1,688
3 655 665 672 1.25 1.10 1.10 819 732 739
33,954 33,168 33,279 1.75 4 1.77 59,533 51,205 59,020

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-10 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USD


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE

RODUC'
INDICATED

AREA HARVESTED IN

HECTARES METRIC TONS

CORN FOR GRAIN 567 060 30 004 930 6.84 168 855 140 201 695 980 205 278 060
‘SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 148 470 5 517 140 4.04 14-935 810 21 942 450 22 286 630
ALL WHEAT 673 500 32 654 030 2.29 64491 740 74 845 870 74 836 880
OURUN 958 700 2 285 690 2.17 2 950 030 5 098 910 4 955 620
OTHER SPRING 924 260 6 683 860 2.07 10.070 290 = 13 704 58013 838 880
RICE 333 4501511 110 5.37 6 579 950 8 10 390 8 109 420
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/ 460 640 27 071 330 2.12 48771 940 56 864 640 57 331 390
FLAXSEED. ~ 284 500 259 000 0.77 206 460 205 320 200 490
PEANUTS FOR NUTS : _ 566 080 620 960 2.83 1 046 820 1752 490 1 756 760
SUNFLOWERS 1/ : 1490 470 1 584 360 1.29 1 697 170 2 038 000
ALL COTTON : 5 347 900 5 $71 120 0.60 2 421 540 3.376 300 © 3: 369 550
‘UPLAND : 5318 880 5 546 720 0,60 2 398 850 3365 200 3 348 890
AMER-PIMA : 29.020 24 400 0.85 22 690 20 100 20 660
COTTONSEED 4 055 570 5 581 450
ALL HAY 053 560 24 056 390 5.33 118 904 700 2/124 968 330 128 252 330
ALFALFA, 630 800 10 588 710 7.06 72 452 310 “2/73 159 010 74 710 290
ALL_ OTHER 422 760 13 467 680 3.98 46 452 390 2/51 809 320 53 S42 040
DRY EDIBLE BEANS 743 010 878 580 1.60 1-183 870 1454 660 1 404 680
POTATOES,
FALL 397 080 422 740 30.43 30.80 12 084 910 13 020 350
TOTAL 467 170 497 610 29,41 30.08 13 737 290 14 965 660
SWEETPOTATOES. + 41 360 44.030 12.01 12.85 496 820 566 260 565 760
TOBACCO : 371 340 389 600 2,18 2.34 808 580 895 620 910 740
SUGARBEETS : 480 970 496 030 44,32 46.93 21317930 23 294 69023 281 080
SUGARCANE FOR +
SUGAR AND SEED 3 296 520 302 950 82.49 88.03 24 460 420 25 280 $20 26 668 SIO
HOPS : 15 010 7 402,28 2.07 34 21 36 500 36 040
APPLES, COMIL ‘ 4006 470 2/3 664 330-3 592 210
GRAPES 5 075 790 2751 570 3 851 360
‘SWEET CHERRIES 3/ 155 760 139 800
TART CHERRIES 37 98 930 62 600
PRUNES AND PLUMS
(EXCL CALIF) 69 490 62 140 59 960
CRANBERRIES 122 360 4/18 980 12) 430
PECANS 83 230 ~ 148 780 153 310
FILBERTS 13-970 13: 880 13 880
CITRUS FRUITS 5/ : 1980-81 1981-82 1981-82
ORANGES i 9 5a7 210 8674 500
LEMONS 1 095 880 1 036 910

17 1980 REVISED. 2/ AUG 1, 1981, 3/ CARRIED FORWARD FROM CHERRY UTILIZATION REPORT RELEASED OCT 2, 198).
A) _wID-AUG. 5/7" SEASON BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HAR~
‘VEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
{METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE

PRODUCTION

AREA HARVESTED

INDICATED
1981 1/

INDICATED INDICATED
1981 Vv 1981 1/

HECTARES METRIC TONS

1980

oats 3.496 520 3 906 BBO 1.90 1.89 6 641 920 7 394 750
BARLEY 2927 120 3 670 540 2.67 2.82 7 806 370 10 364 350
WINTER WHEAT 20 790 540 23 684 480 2.48 2.37 51 471 420 $6 042 380
RYE 268 710 267 500 54 1.62 413150 433 930
DRY EDIBLE PEAS 54 630 45 330 2.73 2.24 149 000 101 600
POTATOES

WINTER 2/ 4 650 4690 23.05 21.26 107 180 99 700

SPRING 28 980 31730 26.71 29.67 774 140 94) 290

SUNMER 36 460 38.450 21.15 23.52 771 060 904 320
PEPPERMINT OIL 32 900 27 520 0.06 0.07 2 090 1 790
SPEARMINT OIL. 12 670 11 940 0.08 0.07 970 870
PEACHES : 1 394 150 1 322 490
PEARS : 810 840 776 820
APRICOTS. + 107 950 97 700
NECTARINES (CALIF) : 174 630 181 440
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF) =: 152 410 140 610
PLUMS (CALIF) : 145 150 163 290
OLIVES (CALIF) rs 100 700 39 920
ALMONDS (CALIF) : 146 060 204 120
WALNUTS (CALIF) 178 720 195 040

‘J/ ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST. 2/ 1981 REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 Ast CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Southern Maryland Type tobacco production is forecast at 44.6 million pounds (20.2 thousand
metric tons), up 70 percent from 1980 and 3 percent more than on September 1. The acreage
increases from 1980 in North Carolina and Virginia and the addition of acreage in South Carolina

largely accounts for the increase in production. Yield is indicated to be 1303 pounds per acre,
exceeding the record of 1275 pounds established in 1978.

Production of dark air-cured tobacco at 18.3 million pounds (8190 metric tons) is 9 percent
above last year. Expectations increased 320 thousand pounds (2 percent) from last month. Area
for harvest is forecast at 10.4 thousand acres (4190 hectares), 7 percent more than in 1980.
Yield per acre is expected to reach 1743 pounds.

A Cigar—type production is forecast at 59.3 million pounds (26.9 thousand metric tons), 1
percent below 1980 but 1 percent above September 1. Cigar filler is up 1 percent from 1980.
Binder and wrapper production are down 2 and 11 percent respectively from last year.

SUGARBEETS: Production of sugarbeets is forecast at 25.7 million tons (23.3 million metric

tons), nearly the same as the September 1 forecast but 9 percent greater than the
1980 crop. Average yield per acre is estimated at 20.9 tons compared with 19.8 tons in 1980.
The increase in production from a year ago is the result of both higher yields and increased
acreage for harvest.

As of October 1, harvest was active in the central valleys and coastal areas of California.
Planting of the 1982 crop was underway in the Imperial Valley.

In Minnesota and North Dakota, sugarbeet lifting was underway on a limited basis. Piling of
beets was expected to start by October 6 in the valley. Dry conditions hurt yield prospects in
southern areas.

Idaho harvest had just begun in some areas by October 1 and was expected to start soon in
others. The crop was in good condition with no unusual reports of insect damage or disease.
The weather had cooled and conditions were excellent for harvest.

The Michigan crop made outstanding growth with plenty of rain but sugar content is low.
Extremely wet fields delayed the start of harvest. Dry weather is needed to increase sugar
content and allow harvest to proceed.

The Colorado crop advanced favorably with harvest expected to start in a week or two. Hail
damage has been minimal. Irrigation water has been adequate.

SUGARCANE: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 29.4 million tons (26.7

million metric tons), up 5 percent from the September 1 forecast and 9 percent
greater than 1980 production. All of the increase from the September 1 forecast is the result
of the outlook for a larger crop in Florida.

The weather during September was ideal for cane growth and development in Florida and yield
Prospects improved. In addition, 2 percent more acreage is now expected to be harvested.
Cutting for seed and planting is active. Harvesting for sugar should be underway by the end of
the month.

Hawaii rainfall was light in September. However, periodic light rain along with irrigation
kept most fields in fair to good condition. Fields in eastern sections of the island of Hawaii,
where irrigation facilities are not available, could benefit from rain.

Louisiana's crop was in good condition on October 1. Diseases caused little threat to
yield. Harvest was expected to begin about October 7.

The Texas crop remained in good condition although moisture is short in some areas. Harvest
was expected to begin by mid-October.

HOPS: Production of hops is estimated at a record 79.5 million pounds (36.0 thousand metric
tons), 1 percent less than last month's forecast but 5 percent larger than the 75.6
million pounds (34.3 thousand metric tons) produced in 1980.

Yield prospects decreased in all hop producing States except Washington. An average

estimated yield of 1844 pounds per acre compares with 2037 pounds a year ago. The 43.1 thousand
acres (17.4 thousand hectares) harvested is 16 percent more than the 1980 acreage.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 198) A-15, CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


CRANBERRIES: Production of the Nation's cranberry crop is forecast at 2.68 million barrels (121
thousand metric tons), a 2 percent increase from mid-August but 1 percent less than
the 1980 crop.

Prospects in Wisconsin improved 7 percent during the period to 1.04 million barrels. Harvest
is underway with producers expecting an average to above average crop. Winter damage was less
than had been anticipated earlier. Wisconsin's higher prospects were partially offset by lower
prospects in New Jersey where quality and color are excellent but berry size is small because of
a lack of rainfall. Prospects in other States were unchanged.

Harvest started in Massachusetts in mid-September with normal progress. Rains came in time
to improve water supplies for harvest and there has been no frost. Berry color is good but size
is variable. Damage from disease, frost and insects has been minimal in Washington and Oregon.
Excessive vine growth in Washington has caused some concern about berries sizing and coloring
normally.

PAPAYAS: Hawaii fresh papaya production is forecast at 5.50 million pounds (2490 metric tons)

for October, down 7 percent from September but 4 percent more than October a year ago.
Fresh output is expected to continue falling through the remaining months of this year.
Seasonal declines of 5 percent in November and 12 percent in December from the respective
preceding months are forecast. Production in 1982 is expected to begin with 5.20 million pounds
(2360 metric tons) in January, up 13 percent from December and 19 percent more than this past
danuary.

Output of 5.90 million pounds (2680 metric tons), in September jumped 40 percent from August,
setting a new all-time fresh production high for the month.

Total area in crop at 3190 acres (1290 hectares) remained unchanged in September. However,
area harvested, at 2160 acres (870 hectares) increased 1 percent from August.

PECANS: U.S. pecan production is forecast at 338 million pounds (153 thousand metric tons), 3

percent more than the September 1 forecast and 84 percent above last year's
drought-stricken crop. Production forecasts increased from last month for Arkansas, Georgia,
Mississippi and New Mexico. In Georgia, there was limited rainfall and very cool night
temperatures during September. Dry conditions have hindered the sizing of nuts and nuts are now
shedding. However, yield prospects continue very good and limited harvest is beginning. In
Texas and Oklahoma nut set remains heavy aS the crop is in the hardening stages and hulls are
cracking. Ory conditions have affected nut filling and development. Crop prospects continue
good to excellent in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina.

Production from improved varieties in the U.S. is expected to account for 57 percent of this
year's crop compared with 70 percent last year and 48 percent in 1979.

EILBERTS: The production forecast for filberts in Oregon and Washington, at 15.3 thousand tons

(13.9 thousand metric tons), is unchanged from last month, down 1 percent from last
year's production but 18 percent above the 1979 crop. As of October 1, harvest had not yet
begun and is about two weeks behind normal.

ORANGES: The first forecast of orange production for the 1981-82 season is a crop of 221

million boxes (8.67 million metric tons), 10 percent less than last season's crop and
19 percent below the record 1979-80 harvest. The forecast for production of all oranges in
Florida is 166 million boxes, 4 percent below last season's crop. Production of early and
mid-season varieties in Florida at 93.0 million boxes is 12 percent Yess than last season and 21
percent less than the 1979-80 crop. Valencia production in Florida is expected to total 73.0
million boxes, 9 percent more than last season's crop which suffered freeze damage. The
California orange crop is forecast at 47.0 million boxes, 29 percent less than last season and
21 percent below the 1979-80 season, The Navel crop in California is expected to total 25.0
million boxes, 35 percent below the record crop of last season. The Valencia forecast for
California is 22.0 million boxes, 20 percent less than last season's record crop and 18 percent
below the 1979-80 season. The Arizona orange crop is expected to total 2.65 million boxes, 2
percent more than last season. Orange production in Texas is forecast at 5.40 million boxes, 25
percent above the 1980-81 crop.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-17 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
{DOMESTIC UNITS)

“AREA HARVESTED YIELD PER ACRE

INOICATEO + INDICATED:
1981 1981:

1,000 ACRES

CORN FOR GRAIN a 73,061 74,143 91.0 109.0 6,647,534 7,940,421 8,081,447
SORGHUM FOR GRAIN * 12,722 13,633 46.2 64.4 587,997 863,836 877,386
ALL WHEAT « 70,853 80,689 33.4 34.1 2,369,666 2,750,115 2,749,785
DURUN . 45840 5,648 22.4 32.2 "108,395 187,353 "182,088
OTHER SPRING "14363916, 516. 25.3 30.8 370,020 503,557 $08,492
RICE Cu: 3,295.0 3,734.0 4,403 4,788 145,063 178,605 178,782
SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 2/ BU : 67,856 66,894 26.4 31.5 14,792,062 2,089,418 2,106,568
FLAXSEED wos 703 640 11.6 12:3 8,128 7,893
PEANUTS FOR NUTS WB: (1,398.8 = 1,534.4 1,650 2,524 2,307,847 3,1 63" a0 3,873,010
SUNFLOWERS 2/ sr 31683 3,915 1,016 1,148 3,741,640 4,493,050
ALL COTTON ~ 13,214.8 13, 766.4 404 540 14 122.1 15,507.3 * 15,476.3
UPLAND 13,143.113,706.1 402 539 1,017.9 15,410.4 — 15,381.4
AMER-PIMA, m7 60.3 698 755 104.2 96.9 94.9
COTTONSEED 4,470.5 6,182.5
ALL HAY 59,404 2.21 2.38 131,070 3/137,754 141,374
ALFALFA 26,165 3.04 3.15 79,865 80,644 82,354
ALL OTHER 68 33,279 1.54 1.77 51,205 59,020
ORY EDIBLE BEANS 3836.0 2,171.0 1,422 1,426 26,100 30,968
POTATOES
FALL 981.2 1,044.6 272 2715 266,428 287,051
TOTAL 1,154.6 1,229.6 262 268 302,857 329,938
SWEETPOTATOES, 102.2 108.8 107 5 10,953 12,484 12,473
TOBACCO 97.6 962.7 1,943 2,086 1,782,618 ~=—1,974,512 2,007,841
SUGARBEETS: 1,188.5 1,225.7 19.8 20.9 23,499 25,678 25,663
SUGARCANE FOR :
ane aN SEED "og 732.7 748.6 36.8 39.3 26,963 27,867 29,397
iB: 37.1 43.1 2,037 1,844 75,560 80,470 73,467
PASTURE AND RANGE a PCT: 63 80
APPLES, COM’L ie: 8,828,400 3/8,078,500 7,919,500
GRAPES, TON: 5595-1 4,135.4 "4,245.4
SWEET CHERRIES 5/ “3 W7 154.1
TART CHERRIES 57 wo: 218, 100 138,000
PRUNES AND PLUMS :

(EXCL CALIF) TON 76.6 68.5 66.1
CRANBERRIES BaL 6/2,623.0 2,677.0
PECANS 4B 328,000" 338,000
FILBERTS TON 15.3 15.3

1981-82

CITRUS FRUITS 7/
“ORANGES
LEMONS

17, YIELD IN POUNDS. 2/1980 REVISED. 3/ AUS 1, 1981, 4/ PASTURE ANO RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH,
THE 1970-79 AVERAGE IS 78 PERCENT. 5/ CARRIED FORWARD FROM CHERRY UTILIZATION REPORT RELEASED OCT 2, 1987. 6/ MID-
AUG. 7/ SEASON BEGINS WLTH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENOS WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

PRODUCTION

INDICATED
1981 1/

CROP AND UNIT INQICATED

1981 1/

INDICATED
1981 1/

1,000 ACRES

OATS 9,654 53.0 52.8 457,593 509,457
BARLEY 3,070 49.6 52.5 368,544 476,031
WINTER WHEAT 58,525 36.8 35.2 1,891,251 2,059,205
RYE : 661 24,5 25.8 16,265 17,083
ORY EDIBLE PEAS CHT 2, 135.0 112.0 2,433 2,000 3,285
POTATOES

WINTER 3/ 15 11.6 205 189 2,363

SPRING . : 6 78.4 238 265 17,067

SUMMER : 90.1 95.0 189 210 16,999
PEPPERMINT OLL : 81.3 66.0 57 58 4,611
SPEARMINT Ol 31.3 29.5 68 65 2,139
PEACHES
PEARS.
APRICOTS, :
NECTARINES (CALIF) " :

URIED PRUNES (CALIF)
PLUMS (CALIF) «
OLIVES (CALIF) «
ALMONDS. (CALIF) LB
WALNUTS (CALIF) TON

17 ESTIMATES CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST, 2/ YIELD IN POUNDS. 3/ 198) REVISED.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1987 Aad CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


PECANS

: PRODUCTION
CROP AND STATE ee ene en eno
TOTAL t TOTAL
1979 1980

4,000 POUNDS

Ind
1981

PECANS IMPROVED Vi
ALA 2 2,800 10.400 26,250
ARK 3 400 200 1,250
FLA 3 1,100 2-500 2,000
GA 3 54,000 84,000 96,000
LA 3 2,500 27000 4,000
MISS : 1,500 3,500 14,000
N MEX 3 14,700 14,700 17,000
nc ast 900 1,100 2,000
OKLA : 1,000 500 2,500
sc 3 1,200 1,600 6,900
TEX 3 21,000 8,000 20,000
us x 104,300 128,500 191,900

PECANS NATIVE & SEEDLING 3
ALA 3 1,200 91000 8,750
ARK : 1,100 700 3,750
FLA 3 1,500 3,500 3,000
GA : 11,000 24,000 24,000
tA z 13,500 12,000 19,000
MISS z 1,000 1,000 6,000
nc ars 400 600 1,000
OKLA : 9,000 3,000 19,500
sc 3 800 600 1,100
TEX 3 707000 3,000 60,000
us : 109,500 55,000 146,100

ALL PECANS 2
ALA : 4,000 20,000 351000
ARK 2 1,500 900 5,000
FLA a 2600 6,000 5,000
GA 2 65,000 105,000 120,000
LA 3 16,000 14,000 23,000
MISS z 2,500 4,500 20,000
N MEX z 14,700 14,700 17,000
nc ast 1,300 1,700 3,000
OKLA 3 10,000 3,500 22,000
sc : 2,000 2,200 8,000
TEX 3 91,000 11,000 80,000
us : 210,600 183,500 338,000

1/ BUDDED,GRAFTED,OR TOPWORKED VARIETIES,
2/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

PAPAYAS - HAWAIT

FRESH PRODUCTION

TOTAL IN CROP

MONTH
: FORECAST
1981-82
1,000 POUNDS.
AUG 2,135 3,497 4,200
SEP 2,160 5,009 $,900
OCT 5,301 5,500
NOV 4,504 5,250
DEC 5,307 4,600
JAN 2,120 4,370 5,200
CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-SEP 30,248 —— 95,220 a

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1987 8-20 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


ALL HAY

: AREA HARVESTED 3 YIELD : PRODUCTION
STATE eee eee eet eee ener tt en eo
$ ? 3 z : IND 3 3 : IND
: 1979 ¢ 1980 ¢ 1979 = 1980 = 1981 1979 = 1980 1981
: 1,000 ACRES TONS 1,000 TONS
ALA 3 660 625 660 1.80 1.65 1.80 1,188 1,031 1,168
ARIZ 3 190 195 180 5.75 6.46 6.76 1,093 1,260 1,216
ARK : 933 gat 940 1,90 1.33 1,94 1,774 1,281 1,820
CALIF 3 1-560 1/550 17565 4068 4.99 4268 77295 7,736 7,330
CoLo 3 1,540 1,500 1,440 2,32 2.18 2.24 3,574 3,276 3,232
CONN 1/8 86 87 2.09 1.95 2,05 180 168 178
OEL 1st 19 17 2.47 2.22 2,29 47 40 39
FLA ss 269 250 2.30 2.30 2.20 619 ss2 550
GA : 450 475 2.60 1.60 2.00 1,170 736 950
IDAHO 1,368 1,370 3,02 3.18 3.20 4,126 4,395 4,390
TLL 3 1,180 1,150 3419 3.07 3.16 3,766 3,558 3,631
IND z B15 785 2.60 2.74 2.76 2,119 2,208 2,164
Towa 3 2,330 2,250 3.75 3.54 3.77 8,747 8,037 8,490
KANS. : 22300 2,240 2.54 1.92 2.57 5,840 4,230 5,766
KY + 1,594 1,550 1,97 1.90 2.02 3,134 2,970 3,138
LA 3 385 370 2.21 1.72 2.01 849 ee 745
MAINE 1/3 216 218 1,78 1.65 1.83 385 302 400
MD : 246 234 2.50 2.40 2.52 616 564 $89
MASS 1/3 119 120 2.39 2.17 2628 285 258 273 —
MICH : 1,330 1,250 2.88 2.93 2.88 3,833 3,844 3,605
MINN : 2,950 2,860 3.02 2.41 2.81 8,910 7,145 8,034
MISS 3 660 660 1,95 1.60 1.90 1,287 1,040 1,254
MO : 3,420 3,420 1.62 1.37 2.08 6,215 4,470 TAL
MONT : 2,380 2,250 1.82 1690 1691 4,329 4,170 4,288
NEBR : 3,700 3,700 2.06 1.91 1.94 7,618 7,083 7,186
NEV 2 495 480 2,18 2,19 2.11 1,081 1,095 1,011
NH 1st 92 93 2.04 2.01 2613 188 187 198
NJ 4/3 127 105 2.73 2.38 2.78 347 255 292
N MEX 3 319 320 3.76 3.69 4.23 1,199 1,144 1,353
NY : 27450 2,330 2.26 2.38 2.38 5,539 5,787 5,551
NC : 378 384 1.65 1-55 1.65 624 $92 633
N DAK : 3,500 3,000 1.61 0.89 1.50 5,650 2,519 4,500
OHIO : 1,440 1,400 2.51 2.51 2.33 3,618 3,588 3,259
OKLA : 1,900 1,630 2,09 1.47 2.09 3,966 2,315 3,407
OREG : 1,060 1,040 2.42 2.70 2.58 2,568 2,893 2,680
PA 3 17960 1,920 2.19 2.14 2.16 4,293 4,182 4,144
RI we et at 2,00 1.64 1.91 22 18 at
sc 3 215 21s 2.10 1270 1.90 452 354 409
$ 0AK 3 4,300 4,130 1.76 1.29 1.16 7,570 5,359 4,805
TENN : 1-240 1,250 1,63 1.49 1.63 2,022 1,764 2,042
TEX : 2,790 2,835 2.96 2,07 2.84 7,133 5,515 8,043
uTAN 3 598 600 3.39 3.46 3486 2,026 2,058 2,078
vt asi 445 450 1,90 1.95 2.06 846 886 929
vA 3 978 960 1,62 1.68 1.76 1,779 19626 1,693
WASH 3 853 855 2,92 3.03 3.02 2,494 2,625 2,585
woVA 3 585 590 1,28 1264 1.64 749 97T 965
wis : 4,030 3,600 3.12 3.22 3.12 12,555 12,545 11,236
WYO : 1,200 1,205 1.77 1.56 1.63 2,127 1,850 1,965
us = 61,666 59,437 59,444 2.40 38 147/847 131,070 141,374

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 B-8 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


INDEX NUMBERS OF CROP PRODUCTION
UNITED STATES, 1971-81 (1977=100)

PRODUCTION

HAY :
FEED: AND FooD SUGAR COTTON TOBACCO :OIL CROPS
GRAINS : FORAGE GRAINS : CROPS :
92 97 81 100 73 89 67
88 96 78 no 95 7 72
90 101 85 97 90 91 86
73 96 91 91 80 104 70
90 100 107 113 58 114 86
95 93 106 112 74 We 74
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
108 106 93 100 75 106 105
116 108 108 93 102 80 129
97 98 120 97 77 93 100
120 103 140 106 108 105 V9

1/__ INCLUDES GRASS AND COVER CROP SEEDS, AND “SOME MISCELLANEOUS CROP PRODUCTION NOT INCLUDED IN
SEPARATE GROUPS OF CROPS SHOWN.

The CROP PROOUCTION report contains State and National estimates with related information
on selected agricultural commodities. These data were prepared and adopted by the Crop Re-
Porting Board which consists of commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington
headquarters.

CROP REPORTING BOARD:
W. E. Kibler, Chairman,
G. L. Clampet, Secretary,
APPROVED: D. W. Barrowman, R. L. Schulte,
R. P. Small, R. F. Carver
L. P. Garrett, 0. H. Yon Steen,
R. L. Addison, M. A. Anderson,
W. R. Blackson, Ww. T. Brannen,
- ‘n J. E. Brewster, J. S. Buche,
wien - ALR. Budge, T. J. Byram,
R. 0. Fenley, c. O. James,
0. C. Johnson, —E. M. Jones, dr.,
8. F. Klugh, dr., S. R. Koyle,
R. W. Milton, G. A. Nelson,
D. E. Ransom, G. €. Waldhaus.
ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-2 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


HOPS

AREA HARVESTED YIELO PRUOUCTIUN 1/
STATE te ee

: IND ¢ 3 2 IND 3 IND
3 1979 = 1980 3 1981 2 1979 2 1980 2 1981 1979 s 1980 2/ : 1981

1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 POUNDS
CALIF 1.2 1.2 2.2 1,290 1,640 1,400 1,548 1,908 1,680
IDAHO 2.7 2.8 3.4 1,710 1,960 1,650 4,617 5,488 5,610
OREG 5.6 6.2 7.2 tpS40 4,960, 720 8,624 12,152 12,384
WASH 22.3 26,9 31.3 1,800 2,080 1,910 40,140 59,783
us 31.8 S71 Cares 1,727 2,037 1,844 54,929 79,457

1/1981 QUANTITIES AVAILABLE FOR MARKET WILL BE GOVERNED BY REGULATIONS
ISSUED UNDER FEDERAL MARKET ORDER 991.
2/ INCLUDES HOPS LOST BY FIRE (POUNDS): OREG-89,000, WASH-799,000.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 17

STATE = AVERAGE 1960 = 1981

STATE & AVERAGE

2 1970979 #1970079 ¢ '
t PERCENT PERCENT

ALA 2 79 49 a1 95 6S
ARIZ 3 72 64 83 B3 97
ARK 2 79 a7 79 3a 78
CALIF ¢ 71 86 17 64 95
coro. os) 670 72 84 83 1
CONN : 82 ot 60 62 78
DEL + Bt 45 79 5b 74
FLA t 2 79 a6 92 83
GA + 74 46 76 36 85
IDAHO 2 a 95 at 93 79
Tut 79 78 6a 58 19
IND z 66 85 6a s2 80
IOWA 8 (79 83 73 42 i)
KANS 2 75, Se 69 52 63
KY : 87 70 83 St 8s
LA tL a7 76 a9 78
MAINE % 80 719 73 85 78
MO z 78 5) vt 82 a9 93
MASS : 83 67 VA : 83 66 a4
MICH = 79 90 WASH 7a a? 80
MINN o£ 75 at wova 85 92 77
MISS : 8t 46 WIS 78 94 67
“0 275 45: Wyo 81 72 86
MONT 3 79 59

NEBR 73 ot us t 78 63 80

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER 3 POOR TO FAIR 65=79; VERY POOR, S0=643 SEVERE
DROUGHT, 35°49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35,

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 198) B-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


Crop
Reporting
Board

CROP PRODUCTION

Released: Wednesday, October 14, 1981

Service

U.S. Department
of Agriculture

Washington, D.C.
20250

Statistical Reporting

CORRECTION

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Crop Reporting Board today corrected
the previously issued yield forecast for Florida Frozen concentrated orange
juice for the 1981-82 season.

The correct forecast’ at 42.0 degrees Brix is 1.42 gallons per box, not
1.36 as indicated in the October 9 crop report. The error was caused by the
use of an incorrect factor in converting to the 42.0 degrees Brix level, which
‘becomes effective when the new marketing year begins on December 1. Yields
previously were reported at 43.4 degrees Brix.

The final yield for the 1980/81 season stands at 1.20939 gallons per box

at 43.4 degrees Brix. The conversion factor from 43.4 to 42.0 degrees is
1.03970. .

For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


ORY EDIRLE BEANS va

AREA HARVESTED

PRODUCTION

CHOP AND STATE

1979 ¢

z 1,000 ACRES POUNDS 1,000 cwr

LARGE LIMA BEANS : :

CALIF ' 27,0 35.0 30,0 1,960 2,150 2,950 529 753 615
BABY Lima BEANS

CALIF 29,0 20.0 27.9 2,260 2,250 2,200 656 450 $90
HEANS OTHER THAN LIMAS.

CALIF 151.0 165.9 182.9 1,600 14640 1,690 26415 24706 3e177
ALL DRY EDIKLE BEANS

CALF 207.0 220.0 205.0 1,789 4,277 1,799 3,600 3,909 4, 386
coLo 165.0 200.0 220.0 1,010 1,089 1,330 1,667 2,160 2,926
TDAHO 133.0 179.9 244.9 1,850 1,860 1, 800 2,400 3,329 4,392
KANS. 17.9 24.6 53.0 1,000 1,400 170 336 462
MICH 460.0 500.0 570.0 1,400 1,200 6,440 7,048 6,440
MINN Se. 44,0 1,560 1,500 562 966 14339
MowT s.7 11.9 1,890 1,600 175 176 176
NEBR 135.0 150.0 1,600 14750 2,160 2,580 3,763
NY z 40.0 51.0 1,150 1,300 460 663 637
DAK 2 105.0 255.0 1,350 1,100 1,418 2,678 3,960
uraK Roo 11.0 400 450 $2 42 59
WASH 40.9 54.0 2,000 1,800 800 1,040 1,188
wyo ance $7.0 14900 2,000 $32 7 aan
ws 2 LsS0L7 1,856.0 1,460

1/ EXCLUUES BEANS wt FOR GARDEN SEED.
2/ ESTIMATES €Ow CUNRENT YEA CARRIED HOWARD FROM EARLTER FORECAST.

SWEETPOTATOES

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

iND
196) t 1965

IDAHO=10 SW CO OHIO
OTHER CO OREG-MALHEUR CO
AND OTHER CO
MAINE
MASS
wich
MINN
MONT
NEBR
nEY

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1987 8-11 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


POTATOES: Fall potato production in the United States is forecast at 287 million cwt, (13.0

million metric tons), 8 percent above 1980, but 3 percent below 1979 and 12 percent
less than the 1978 output. Area for harvest is expected to total? 1.04 million acres (423
thousand hectares), 6 percent greater than in 1980 but 2 percent less than in 1979. Yields are
expected to average 275 cwt per acre, 3 cwt above last year but down 2 cwt from 1979. As of
October 1, harvest was 45 percent complete, 5 percentage points ahead of last year but the same
as October 1, 1979.

In the seven Eastern States, production is expected to total 45.9 million cwt, up 9 percent
from 1980 but 6 percent below 1979. Yield at 258 cwt per acre is 22 cwt above 1980 and 4 cwt
eater than in 1979. Area for harvest is estimated at 178 thousand acres, down fractionally
rom last year and 7 percent less than two years ago. Maine's production is forecast at 26.0
million cwt, 4 percent above 1980. Rain during late September slowed harvest in Maine and
caused some rot problems. However, damage is not as severe as earlier feared and quality of the
crop is rated mostly good. In New York and Pennsylvania yields have returned to more normal
levels following last year's drought. Production in Pennsylvania is up 21 percent from last
year while Long Island and Upstate New York are up 1] and 16 percent, respectively.

Production in the eight Central States is forecast at 63.2 million cwt, 16 percent above
1980 and 1 percent above 1979. Harvested acreage at 294 thousand acres is up 4 percent from
last year, but down fractionally from 1979, Yield at 215 cwt per acre compares with 193 cwt for
1980 and 212 cwt for 1979. Harvest of potatoes in the Red River Valley is well ahead of last
year with North Dakota 76 percent complete and Minnesota 72 percent complete on October 1.
Yields are up significantly from last year in these two States due to improved moisture
supplies. Production is expected to be up 32 percent in North Dakota and 25 percent in
Minnesota.

Wet fields are plaguing harvesting operations in Southeastern Michigan and abandoned acreage
will be well above normal. However, in Northern Michigan both yields and quality are good. In
Wisconsin, growing conditions have been favorable and production is expected to be 12 percent
above 1980. Harvest is winding down, and quality is reported as excellent. In Ohio and Indiana
excessive rains early in the growing season have reduced yields, acreage, and production.

In the 9 Western States production is expected to total 178 million cwt, up 5 percent from
last year but 4 percent below 1979. Area intended for harvest at 573 thousand acres, is 10
percent above last year but 2 percent less than in 1979. Average yield at 311 cwt per acre is
16 cwt below 1980 and 7 cwt below 1979. Production in Idaho is estimated at 80.0 million cwt
compared with 79.8 million cwt in 1980. Although acreage intended for harvest is up 8 percent
estimated yield is down 20 cwt from last year. Rains delayed plantings in some areas and then
frosts in late June and early July set the crop back several weeks. In Washington, production
is forecast at 50.8 million cwt, up 16 percent from last year due to increased acreage. Hot,
dry weather during August and September has reduced yields, hindered storage and caused a
greater occurrence of bruising, hollow heart and brown center. Oregon production is up 5
percent, also a result of increased acreage. The hot weather that persisted this summer and
early fall curtailed the growing season and consequently reduced yields. In California, harvest
has just begun in the Tulelake-Butte Valley area and quality appears good.

All potato production (all four seasons) in the United States totals 330 million cwt (15.0
million metric tons), 9 percent above 1980 but 4 percent below 1979. Average yield at. 268 cwt
per acre is 6 cwt above last year but 2 cwt below two years ago. Area for harvest is expected
to total 1.23 million acres (498 thousand hectares) up 7 percent from 1980 but 3 percent less
than in 1979.

Revised production for the 1981 winter potato crop is placed at 2.20 million cwt (99.7
thousand metric tons), 7 percent below 1980 and 8 percent below 1979. Harvested area at 11.6
thousand acres (4690 hectares) is up 1 percent from 1980 but 3 percent less than in 1979.
Average yield at 189 cwt per acre is 16 cwt below 1980 and the lowest yield since 1972. The
Florida crop was later than normal and yields in Dade County were reduced by the January freeze
more than anticipated.

SWEETPOTATOES: The final forecast of 1981 sweetpotato production in the United States is at
32.5 million cwt (566 thousand metric tons), virtually unchanged from last month

but 14 percent above last year's record low output. Yield per acre at 115 cwt is 1 cwt above

the September 1 forecast and 8 cwt greater than last year's drought reduced yield. Area for

harvest at 109 thousand acres (44.0 thousand hectares) is 1 percent below last month but

6 percent above the 1980 record low.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 19817 A-13 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA


The hot weather in July and August is the main factor in the decreased yield prospects.
Harvest was complete in Washington, Oregon and Idaho.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED: October 1 pasture and range feed condition averaged 80 percent for the
48 contiguous States. This is 17 points above a year ago and 2 points
above the 1970-79 average for this date.

Ory conditions persisted in the West. However, in Idaho and Montana, cooler weather and
showers late in the month helped reduce the threat of fire. California's pastures were good to
excellent along the Coast but poor to fair elsewhere. Range and pasture conditions in Texas
continued to improve as adequate moisture and cooler temperatures promoted growth. The
Southeastern third of the Nation experienced little regrowth. All States in this area reported
poor to fair conditions except Georgia and South Carolina where conditions were very poor. The
Northeastern half of the Nation reported mostly good te excellent conditions, a result of
abundant moisture.

APPLES: The final forecast of the 1981 U.S. apple crop is 7.92 billion pounds (3.59 million
metric tons), down 2 percent from the August ] forecast of 8.08 billion pounds (3.66
million metric tons) and 10 percent less than last year's record production.

The Eastern States expect a crop of 2.73 billion pounds, a 2 percent decline from August 1
and 19 percent below Jast year. Prospects declined from August ] in Maine, Massachusetts, New
York, Pennsylvania, Vermont and West Virginia because of smaller than expected size and the more
apparent effects of winter kill. In North Carolina, harvest was 75 percent complete, and quality
and size were excellent. The Virginia harvest was over 40 percent complete with better than
normal quality but small size.

In the Central States, prospects are for a crop of 1.17 billion pounds, fractionally above
the August forecast but 19 percent below last year's production. Michigan apple growers
expect to harvest 680 million pounds, which is 24 percent less than last year's crop. Harvest
was behind schedule because of the late maturing crop. The late harvest and plentiful moisture
have caused the crop to size well. Late summer rainfall and moderate temperatures improved
prospects in Illinois.

Prospects in the Western States decreased 3 percent from August 1, but the 4.02 billion
pounds expected is virtually the same as the 1980 harvest. Washington's 2.95 billion pound crop
suffered from the August heat wave which reduced fruit size and caused some sun-scalding.
Temperatures were favorable for fruit development in September so producers left the fruit on the
trees Tonger than normal. In California, picking was active or complete for most varieties by
October 1. A short labor supply, limited storage facilities and a poor market hampered the
harvest of an excellent crop. The Oregon Red Delicious crop was slow to color which delayed
harvest but apple knocking was about half complete on October 1.

GRAPES: The final forecast of the U.S. grape crop is 4.25 million tons (3.85 million metric
tons), 3 percent more than last month's forecast but 24 percent smaller than the 1980
crop.

California now expects 3.81 million tons, 3 percent more than forecast last month but down 26
percent from 1980, Raisin type grape production prospects improved during September. Weather
conditions this year have made assessing the crop very difficult. Sugar levels were high,
contributing to an excellent quality grape. Virtually all raisins were rolled by October 1 and
the crushing of raisin type grapes for wine was virtually complete. Table grape quality is
generally good with high sugar levels. Picking of Emperors, Calmerios, and Ribiers was well
underway. The quality of wine type grapes was good to excellent. Harvest is two weeks ahead of
normal and should be complete by mid-October.

Harvest got underway in New York, in late September. September rains improved berry weights
and increased tonnage expectations. August weather in Washington was hot, which decreased
expected tonnage by reducing berry size. Concord harvest began in late September. Cold, wet
weather in Pennsylvania retarded sugar development but did not reduce production. Michigan's
harvest is underway and overcast weather limited sugar content.

PRUNES AND PLUMS: Production of prunes and plums in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is

forecast at 66.1 thousand tons (60.0 thousand metric tons). This last
forecast of the season is down 4 percent from the previous month, and is 14 percent less than
last year. Harvest is nearly complete in all areas of the country. Prospects held steady
during September except for ‘Washington where prospects decreased. Compared with a year ago,
Michigan expects a larger crop while Jdaho, Oregon, and Washington expect smaller crops.

CROP PRODUCTION, OCTOBER 1981 A-16 CROP REPORTING BOARD, SRS, USDA