Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released February 8, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department 

of Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down Less Than 1 Percent from January

The United States all orange forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 8.79 million tons, down less than 1 percent from the 

previous forecast and down 3 percent from the 2011-2012 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 141 million 

boxes (6.35 million tons), is down 1 percent from the January forecast and down 4 percent from last season’s final 

utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 66.0 million boxes (2.97 million tons), 

unchanged from the January forecast but down 11 percent from last season. Droppage is the highest since the 1969-1970 

season while size is below average. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 75.0 million boxes (3.38 million tons), is 

down 1 percent from the January forecast but up 4 percent from the 2011-2012 crop. California and Texas forecasts are 

carried forward from January.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 1.62 gallons per box at 

42.0 degrees Brix, up 1 percent from the January forecast but down 1 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.63 gallons 

per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.49 gallons per box, down 3 percent from last season’s yield of 

1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.73 gallons per box, 1 percent lower than last year’s final yield 

of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of 

the past several seasons.
2 Crop Production (February 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

This report was approved on February 8, 2013.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Michael T. Scuse

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Hubert Hamer
Crop Production (February 2013) 3

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ................................ 4

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2011-2012 and Forecasted 

February 1, 2013 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2012 and 2013..................... 6

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 2012 and 2013 ......................... 8

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2012 and 2013 (Domestic Units).................................................................... 10

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2012 and 2013 (Metric Units) ........................................................................ 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation Map ................................................................................................................................... 12

Departure from Normal Temperature Map........................................................................................................................... 12

January Weather Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 13

January Agricultural Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 13

Crop Comments.................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15

Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16
4 Crop Production (February 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2011 and 2012

Use and State

Area harvested Yield per acre 1 Production 1

2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (tons) (tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

For sugar

Florida .........................................................

Hawaii 2.......................................................

Louisiana 2..................................................

Texas 2........................................................

United States ..............................................

For seed

Florida .........................................................

Hawaii 2.......................................................

Louisiana 2..................................................

Texas 2........................................................

United States ..............................................

For sugar and seed

Florida .........................................................

Hawaii 2.......................................................

Louisiana 2..................................................

Texas 2........................................................

United States ..............................................

380.0

15.1

385.0

47.0

827.1

17.0

1.5

25.0

2.0

45.5

397.0

16.6

410.0

49.0

872.6

393.6

15.5

400.0

43.0

852.1

16.4

1.5

28.0

1.0

46.9

410.0

17.0

428.0

44.0

899.0

37.5

85.2

27.6

33.5

33.5

40.0

30.0

27.6

35.5

32.7

37.6

80.2

27.6

33.6

33.5

37.8

84.8

33.0

35.9

36.3

42.7

30.0

33.0

32.0

36.3

38.0

79.9

33.0

35.8

36.3

14,250

1,287

10,626

1,575

27,738

680

45

690

71

1,486

14,930

1,332

11,316

1,646

29,224

14,878

1,314

13,200

1,544

30,936

700

45

924

32

1,701

15,578

1,359

14,124

1,576

32,637

1 Net tons.

2 Estimates are carried forward from the Crop Production 2012 Summary released January 2013.
Crop Production (February 2013) 5

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2011-2012 and Forecasted 

February 1, 2013

[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]

Crop and State

Utilized production boxes 1 Utilized production ton equivalent

2011-2012 2012-2013 2011-2012 2012-2013

(1,000 boxes) (1,000 boxes) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Oranges

Early, mid, and Navel 2

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

Valencia

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

All

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

Grapefruit

White

 Florida ..............................................

Colored

 Florida ..............................................

All

 California 3........................................

 Florida ..............................................

 Texas 3.............................................

 United States ....................................

Tangerines and mandarins

Arizona 3 4.............................................

California 3 4..........................................

Florida ..................................................

United States ........................................

Lemons 3

Arizona .................................................

California ..............................................

United States ........................................

Tangelos

Florida ..................................................

45,500

74,200

1,108

120,808

13,500

72,400

311

86,211

59,000

146,600

1,419

207,019

5,350

13,500

4,400

18,850

4,800

28,050

200

10,900

4,290

15,390

750

20,500

21,250

1,150

46,500

66,000

1,220

113,720

13,000

75,000

286

88,286

59,500

141,000

1,506

202,006

5,000

13,000

4,000

18,000

5,280

27,280

200

11,800

3,700

15,700

1,800

20,500

22,300

1,000

1,820

3,339

47

5,206

540

3,258

13

3,811

2,360

6,597

60

9,017

228

574

176

802

192

1,170

8

436

204

648

30

820

850

52

1,860

2,970

52

4,882

520

3,375

12

3,907

2,380

6,345

64

8,789

213

553

160

766

211

1,137

8

472

176

656

72

820

892

45

1 Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in 

Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90.

2 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines 

in Texas and Temples in Florida.

3 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

4

Includes tangelos and tangors.
6 Crop Production (February 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2012 2013 2012 2013

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all ................................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all ............................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all ...........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all ........................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 2....................................................................

3,637

97,155

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

2,760

335

2,699

1,300

6,244

(NA)

55,736

41,324

2,123

12,289

1,765.0

(X)

344

51.1

1,638.0

2.2

169.8

77,198

1,919.0

12,315.4

12,077.0

238.4

1,230.1

(NA)

(NA)

19.0

1,742.5

649.0

463.0

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,148.3

96.8

49.8

1,001.7

(NA)

130.5

(NA)

41,820

3,244

87,375

7,379

56,260

17,292

38,968

1,045

205

2,678

248

4,955

363

48,991

34,834

2,102

12,055

1,729.0

(X)

336

49.7

1,608.0

2.1

160.1

76,104

1,841.0

9,426.8

9,190.0

236.8

1,204.2

899.0

336.2

13.7

1,690.4

621.0

450.0

(NA)

6.1

31.9

76.0

1,132.7

94.6

48.5

989.6

20.0

126.6

0.4

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (February 2013) 7

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013 (continued)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per acre Production

2012 2013 2012 2013

(1,000) (1,000)

Grains and hay

Barley ................................................................................... bushels

Corn for grain ........................................................................ bushels

Corn for silage ............................................................................tons

Hay, all .......................................................................................tons

 Alfalfa .....................................................................................tons

 All other ..................................................................................tons

Oats ...................................................................................... bushels

Proso millet ........................................................................... bushels

Rice 3........................................................................................... cwt

Rye ....................................................................................... bushels

Sorghum for grain ................................................................. bushels

Sorghum for silage ......................................................................tons

Wheat, all ............................................................................. bushels

 Winter ............................................................................... bushels

 Durum ............................................................................... bushels

 Other spring ...................................................................... bushels

Oilseeds

Canola ...................................................................................pounds

Cottonseed .................................................................................tons

Flaxseed ............................................................................... bushels

Mustard seed .........................................................................pounds

Peanuts .................................................................................pounds

Rapeseed ..............................................................................pounds

Safflower ...............................................................................pounds

Soybeans for beans .............................................................. bushels

Sunflower ..............................................................................pounds

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 3............................................................................... bales

 Upland 3................................................................................ bales

 American Pima 3................................................................... bales

Sugarbeets .................................................................................tons

Sugarcane ..................................................................................tons

Tobacco .................................................................................pounds

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas 3.................................................................. cwt

Dry edible beans 3....................................................................... cwt

Dry edible peas 3......................................................................... cwt

Lentils 3........................................................................................ cwt

Wrinkled seed peas ..................................................................... cwt

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ......................................................................pounds

Hops ......................................................................................pounds

Peppermint oil ........................................................................pounds

Potatoes, all ................................................................................. cwt

 Spring ...................................................................................... cwt

 Summer ................................................................................... cwt

 Fall .......................................................................................... cwt

Spearmint oil .........................................................................pounds

Sweet potatoes ............................................................................ cwt

Taro (Hawaii) .........................................................................pounds

67.9

123.4

15.4

2.13

3.01

1.74

61.3

15.1

7,449

28.0

49.8

11.4

46.3

47.2

39.0

45.0

1,416

(X)

17.1

602

4,192

2,205

1,121

39.6

1,513

866

849

1,540

29.3

36.3

2,268

1,219

1,889

1,751

1,178

(NA)

1,180

1,918

87

412

283

368

427

120

209

(NA)

220,284

10,780,296

113,450

119,878

52,049

67,829

64,024

3,090

199,479

6,944

246,932

4,135

2,269,117

1,645,202

81,956

541,959

2,447,410

5,759.0

5,762

29,930

6,741,400

4,630

179,424

3,014,998

2,785,695

17,009.9

16,250.0

759.9

35,236

32,637

762,441

167

31,925

10,872

5,302

406

7,200

61,249.2

6,605

467,126

26,736

17,855

422,535

2,390

26,482

3,400

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.

3 Yield in pounds.
8 Crop Production (February 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Area planted Area harvested

2012 2013 2012 2013

(hectares) (hectares) (hectares) (hectares)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1.............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2......................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 3....................................................................

1,471,860

39,317,660

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,116,940

135,570

1,092,260

526,100

2,526,880

(NA)

22,555,800

16,723,410

859,160

4,973,240

714,280

(X)

139,210

20,680

662,880

890

68,720

31,241,260

776,600

4,983,920

4,887,440

96,480

497,810

(NA)

(NA)

7,690

705,170

262,640

187,370

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

464,710

39,170

20,150

405,380

(NA)

52,810

(NA)

16,924,140

1,312,810

35,359,790

2,986,210

22,767,860

6,997,900

15,769,960

422,900

82,960

1,083,760

100,360

2,005,240

146,900

19,826,170

14,096,970

850,660

4,878,540

699,710

(X)

135,980

20,110

650,740

850

64,790

30,798,530

745,030

3,814,930

3,719,100

95,830

487,330

363,820

136,070

5,540

684,090

251,310

182,110

(NA)

2,470

12,920

30,760

458,390

38,280

19,630

400,480

8,090

51,230

160

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (February 2013) 9

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2012 and 2013 (continued)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Yield per hectare Production

2012 2013 2012 2013

(metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain ......................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2.............................................................................

 Alfalfa .............................................................................

 All other ..........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain ...............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2.........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower ............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ...........................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2.........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ...............................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2.....................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall .................................................................................

Spearmint oil ......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................

3.65

7.74

34.47

4.78

6.75

3.90

2.20

0.84

8.35

1.76

3.13

25.54

3.11

3.18

2.62

3.02

1.59

(X)

1.08

0.67

4.70

2.47

1.26

2.66

1.70

0.97

0.95

1.73

65.59

81.38

2.54

1.37

2.12

1.96

1.32

(NA)

1.32

2.15

0.10

46.22

31.68

41.26

47.86

0.13

23.45

(NA)

4,796,120

273,832,130

102,920,110

108,751,490

47,218,060

61,533,430

929,310

70,080

9,048,220

176,390

6,272,360

3,751,210

61,755,240

44,775,060

2,230,480

14,749,710

1,110,130

5,224,480

146,360

13,580

3,057,850

2,100

81,390

82,054,800

1,263,570

3,703,470

3,538,020

165,450

31,965,560

29,607,790

345,840

7,570

1,448,090

493,150

240,490

18,420

3,270

27,780

3,000

21,188,480

1,212,720

809,890

19,165,870

1,080

1,201,200

1,540

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2

Total may not add due to rounding.

3 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
10 Crop Production (February 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2012 and 2013 (Domestic Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2012 2013

(1,000) (1,000)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit .....................................................................................................................tons

Lemons ........................................................................................................................tons

Oranges .......................................................................................................................tons

Tangelos (Florida) ........................................................................................................tons

Tangerines and mandarins ...........................................................................................tons

Noncitrus

Apples ........................................................................................................... 1,000 pounds

Apricots ........................................................................................................................tons

Bananas (Hawaii) ....................................................................................................pounds

Grapes .........................................................................................................................tons

Olives (California) ........................................................................................................tons

Papayas (Hawaii) ....................................................................................................pounds

Peaches .......................................................................................................................tons

Pears ...........................................................................................................................tons

Prunes, dried (California) .............................................................................................tons

Prunes and plums (excludes California) .......................................................................tons

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ..................................................................................pounds

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .........................................................................................tons

Pecans, in-shell .......................................................................................................pounds

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........................................................................................tons

Maple syrup ............................................................................................................ gallons

1,170

850

9,017

52

648

9,061.1

60.8

7,343.4

160.0

978.3

858.2

125.0

13.2

2,000,000

34.7

302,800

470

1,908

1,137

892

8,789

45

656

1 Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.
Crop Production (February 2013) 11

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2012 and 2013 (Metric Units)

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2012 2013

(metric tons) (metric tons)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit ...........................................................................................................................

Lemons ..............................................................................................................................

Oranges ..............................................................................................................................

Tangelos (Florida) ..............................................................................................................

Tangerines and mandarins .................................................................................................

Noncitrus

Apples ................................................................................................................................

Apricots ..............................................................................................................................

Bananas (Hawaii) ...............................................................................................................

Grapes ...............................................................................................................................

Olives (California) ...............................................................................................................

Papayas (Hawaii) ...............................................................................................................

Peaches .............................................................................................................................

Pears ..................................................................................................................................

Prunes, dried (California) ....................................................................................................

Prunes and plums (excludes California) ..............................................................................

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ..............................................................................................

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...............................................................................................

Pecans, in-shell ..................................................................................................................

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ...............................................................................................

Maple syrup ........................................................................................................................

1,061,410

771,110

8,180,080

47,170

587,860

4,110,050

55,160

6,661,820

145,150

887,460

778,580

113,400

12,010

907,180

31,480

137,350

426,380

9,540

1,031,470

809,210

7,973,250

40,820

595,110

1 Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013.
12 Crop Production (February 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production (February 2013) 13

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

January Weather Summary

Despite sporadic January precipitation on the Plains, drought remained entrenched across the Nation’s midsection. By 

month’s end, at least half of the winter wheat was rated very poor to poor in Oklahoma (69 percent), South Dakota 

(66 percent), and Nebraska (50 percent). In Kansas, 39 percent of the winter wheat and 85 percent of the rangeland and 

pastures were rated very poor to poor on January 27. Precipitation was a little heavier on the northern Plains, where snow 

provided wheat with some protection from weather extremes. The southern Plains also received moisture from time to 

time, helping to offset the effects of mostly above-normal temperatures.

In fact, above average monthly temperatures prevailed in nearly all areas from the Plains to the East Coast, despite a 

late-month cold outbreak that resulted in the coldest weather in 2 years in parts of the Midwest and Northeast. January 

temperature readings averaged more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in much of the Southeast. In contrast, frigid 

weather blanketed the Intermountain region, while near- to below-normal temperatures covered the remainder of the 

West.

Meanwhile, abundant January precipitation fell from the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians, as well as the 

Mid-Atlantic States. Lowland flooding affected several areas, primarily from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the 

Ohio Valley. However, very little moisture spilled across the mountains into New England or the southern Atlantic States. 

In the latter region, the combination of warm, dry conditions led to heavy irrigation demands in Florida’s winter 

agricultural belt.

Elsewhere, disappointingly dry weather accompanied generally cool conditions in the West. For example, the average 

water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snow pack stood at 16 inches (90 percent of average) at month’s end, 

compared to 14 inches (140 percent) on January 1. However, late-month storms provided some drought relief in the 

Southwest.

January Agricultural Summary

During January, near-normal temperatures blanketed the Nation’s midsection. Conversely, monthly averages in portions 

of the West fell to more than 15 degrees below normal, while recordings in the Southeast climbed to more than 6 degrees 

above normal. Precipitation totals varied wildly across the country, ranging from less than 0.1 inch throughout much of 

the Hard Red Wheat region - where snow cover was virtually nonexistent - to more than 10 inches in portions of the Delta 

and Tennessee Valley. Beneficial rain and snow helped to replenish soil moisture levels in many areas east of the 

Mississippi River; however, unfavorably dry weather led to expansion of drought-like conditions in Florida’s 

citrus-producing region.

As the month began, growers in most producing States were harvesting early and mid-season citrus crops. Persistently 

warm temperatures in Florida led to earlier than normal bud development and bloom for avocado, mango, and peach trees. 

Cold overnight temperatures prompted the use of wind machines and heavy irrigation in many of California’s orchards 

mid-month; damage assessments were ongoing as the month ended, with damage reported as minimal. Toward month’s 

end, beekeepers in California moved hives into almond orchards as bud swell grew evident on many trees.

Dry weather coupled with depleted soil moisture levels led to worsening winter wheat conditions on the southern Great 

Plains, while a limited snowpack throughout much of the major producing region left the crop exposed to potential 

temperature extremes. On January 27, thirty-nine percent of Kansas’ winter wheat was reported in very poor or poor 

condition, compared with 31 percent on December 30. Similarly, 69 percent of Oklahoma’s crop was reported as very 

poor or poor on January 27, compared with 61 percent on December 30.

Crop Comments

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), down 9 percent from the January forecast and 

down 13 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Row Count survey conducted January 29-30 showed 74 percent 

of the rows were harvested.
14 Crop Production (February 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Grapefruit: The 2012-2013 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.14 million tons, unchanged from the January 

forecast but down 3 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, droppage for both white and colored grapefruit 

is expected to be the highest of any season not affected by a freeze or hurricane. The average size is expected to be the 

smallest since the 1968-1969 season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the 

January 1 forecast.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 656,000 tons, down 1 percent 

from the January forecast but up 1 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, sizes for all varieties of 

tangerines are expected to be below average with above average droppage. Arizona and California estimates are carried 

forward from the January 1 forecast.

Florida citrus: In the citrus growing region, high temperatures for the month were in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows 

reached the low 30s in Citra and Putnam Hall, but avoided fruit damaging levels. Rainfall was sparse, worsening the 

drought conditions in all of the citrus producing regions, except for the western region, which is still drought free. 

Harvesting of early and mid oranges, grapefruit, tangelos, and tangerines continued. Harvesting, mowing, and general 

grove maintenance were the primary grove activities.

California citrus: Cold weather resulted in heavy frosts across the State. Growers used wind machines and ran sprinklers 

to protect citrus crops from the freezing temperatures. Navel oranges, lemons, and limes continued to be harvested. Oro 

Blanco and Melogold grapefruit were picked and packed. Pummelo and Satsuma mandarin harvests continued. Owari and 

Clementine tangerine harvests finished. Seasonal fungicides were applied to all citrus crops.

California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Persimmon and kiwi harvests were complete. Apple harvest slowed down. In stone 

fruit orchards and grape vineyards, pruning and the application of dormant sprays continued. Buds were beginning to 

swell on stone fruit trees. Blueberries were being covered to help pollination. Almond stockpiles continued to be hulled. 

Buds were beginning to swell on almond trees with bloom expected to start soon. Beekeepers continued to move hives 

into the State. Pre-emergent spraying, orchard removal, planting, and pruning continued in walnut, almond, and pistachio 

orchards.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2012 is estimated at 32.6 million tons, of which 30.9 million 

tons was utilized for sugar and 1.70 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is unchanged from January 

but up 12 percent from 2011. Sugarcane producers harvested 899,000 acres for sugar and seed in 2012, unchanged from 

the January forecast. Yield for sugar and seed is estimated at 36.3 tons per acre, unchanged from January. In Florida, 

harvest continued with very few weather interruptions. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward 

from January.
Crop Production (February 2013) 15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which 

produces about 72 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season 

based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or 

special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and 

subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the 

previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer 

surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in 

September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were 

also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural 

Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The February 1 production forecast will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month 

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in 

September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including 

information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization 

and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square 

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production 

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage 

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean 

Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 

final end-of-season estimate, assuming factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent 

years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 3.2 percent. However, if you exclude the 

three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 

3.1 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the 

final estimate by more than 3.2 percent, or 3.1 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent 

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.5 percent, or 5.3 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 

293,000 tons (284,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of 

exclusions. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 

8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply the February 1 forecast this year 

is likely to understate or overstate final production.
16 Crop Production (February 2013)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact 

for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch .......................................................................................................(202) 720-2127

Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section ...................................................................................... (202) 720-2127

 Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye, Wheat .............................................................................................. (202) 720-8068

 Angie Considine – Peanuts, Rice ..................................................................................................... (202) 720-7688

 Steve Maliszewski – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................................................ (202) 720-5944

 Anthony Prillaman – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet ......................................................................... (202) 720-9526

 Julie Schmidt – Crop Weather, Barley, Hay .................................................................................... (202) 720-7621

 Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..................................................................(202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............................................(202) 720-2127

 Debbie Flippin – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries......................................(202) 720-2157

 Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ...............................................(202) 720-4288

 Chris Hawthorn – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits.........................................(202) 720-5412

 Dave Losh – Hops............................................................................................................................(360) 709-2400 

 Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,

 Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ..................................................(202) 720-3250

 Daphne Schauber – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ...............................................(202) 720-4285

 Erika White – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts .......................................................(202) 720-4215
Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:

 All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

 Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-mail subscription. To set-up this free 

subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the “Follow NASS” box under “Receive reports by Email,” 

click on “National” or “State” to select the reports you would like to receive. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 

7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 

 

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