Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group,
State, and United States, 1995-96

Seasonal Group

Seasonal Group

and State and State 1995 1996
1,000 Acres
Winter 1/ : Fall 1/ 2/

CA H 5.0 5.7 CA : 13.0 11.5
FL : 8.3 7.9 co : 77.0 78.0
Total 2 13.3 13.6 ID : 400.0 410.0
: 10 SW Co : 27.0 28.0
Spring 1/ 3 Other ID H 373.0 382.0
AL : 2.6 2.0 IN : 5.0 5.2
AZ 3 6.5 9.0 ME 3 78.0 77.0
CA : 18.0 20.1 MA 3.3 2.8
FL z 38.5 37.5 MI 55.0 52.0
Hastings : 28.5 28.0 MN 83.0 85.0
Other FL : 10.0 9.5 MT 9.8 10.1
NC : 17.5 16.5 NE 12.0 12.5
TX 5.2 6.8 NV 7.6 8.0
Total 88.3 91.9 NM 6.3 6.2
NY 29.0 29.0
Summer 2/ ND 125.0 134.0
AL 6.8 6.8 OH 5.5 5.4
CA 5.5 5.8 OR 54.0 59.5
co 9.3 9.9: Malheur 13.0 12.7
DE 6.0 6.0: Other OR 41.0 46.8
IL 5.6 7.2: PA 18.0 17.0
IA 1/ 1.6 1.5 RI 0.9 0.8
MD 1/ 1.5 2.0 sD 6.0 6.0
MO : 7.1 7.8 UT 5.2 4.3
NE 4.5 5.6 WA 147.0 163.0
No 2.7 2.6 wi 82.0 83.0
NM 4.2 3.9 wy 1.5 0.9

Nc 1/ 1.4 1.3
TX 7.3 10.5 Total 1,224.1 1,261.2

VA 9.0 9.0
Total 72.5 79.9 us 1,398.2 1,446.6

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1995 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-20 NASS, USDA


Burley production is expected to total 533 million pounds, down 4 percent from
August 1 projections but 36 percent above the 1995 production. yield is
expected to average 2,102 pounds per acre, 239 pounds above the average for
1995. Burley tobacco growers expect to harvest 282,100 acres, up 20 percent
from last year. Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio each lowered their
yield expectations below a month ago. Most states are working with a late
season followed by the pressure of blue mold disease in their burley crop.
Kentucky, with 71 percent of the 1996 burley production, is expected to produce
39 percent more tobacco than a year ago. Thirty-six percent of the Kentucky
burley crop was cut by month‘s end.

Florida Citrus: Groves, trees, and new crop fruit are all in very good to

excellent condition. Rainfall during August was variable
throughout the State. However, virtually all citrus growing counties reported
above average rainfall for the month. There was an abundance of new growth on
most young trees. New crop fruit made good maturity progress. Several fresh
fruit packing houses tested early bloom grapefruit and Navels for early packing
and shipping. No groves passed maturity tests. Caretakers cut cover crops;
applied herbicides, insecticides, fertilizer, and lime; removed dead trees; and
reset replacement trees in the larger groves.

California Citrus: Grapefruit harvest outside the desert area continued during

August. Lemon picking in the south coast area was nearly
over. Valencia harvest was still slow due to competition in the marketplace
from other fresh fruits. New crop Navel oranges were maturing well. Navel
fruit set was down but fruit size was large.

Sugarbeets: Production for the U.S. is expected to total 26.4 million tons, a

decrease of 6 percent from 1995. Area for harvest, at 1.33 million
acres, is virtually unchanged from the August "Crop Production" report and down
6 percent from last year. The average yield, at 19.8 tons per acre, is equal to
last year's yield, and up 0.3 tons from August.

A cool, wet spring delayed planting and slowed sugarbeet development, leaving
many States behind normal. Cool summer weather slowed plant development in the
Great Lakes region, leaving many fields two weeks behind normal. Favorable
temperatures in the Mountain States during July and August aided crop
development, but dry weather increased irrigation requirements. The dry weather
helped control insect populations in the Western States but, since virtually all
sugarbeet fields are irrigated, the dry conditions did not affect yield
expectations. Hail in the central Great Plains damaged leaves in some fields,
requiring plants to expend nutrients to repair the damage and lowering expected
yield. Beneficial rains over Texas during August and cooler temperatures aided
plant development.

Sugarcane: Sugarcane production for U.S. sugar and seed in 1996 is expected to
total 27.3 million tons, down 11 percent from 1995 and 1 percent

below the August "Crop Report". Area for harvest, at 869,000 acres, was

7 percent below last year. The forecasted yield, at 31.4 tons per acre, is

1.6 tons below last year's yield.

Frequent rains during Florida's growing season and no significant storm damage
allowed sugarcane to make good growth. Florida's sugarcane mills were preparing
to begin milling in late October. In Louisiana, the effects of last winter's
hard freeze lowered expected yields but the freeze also lowered cane borer
populations. Louisiana's sugarcane is shorter than normal for this time of year
but the height of the crop is not expected to lower final tonnage at harvest

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-10 NASS, USDA


dry weather during July and August in Montana and Oregon has lowered expected
yields. Harvest was 69 percent completed in Idaho as of the first of September,
5 points ahead of average.

Durum Wheat: Condition of North Dakota’s crop declined during August as scab

became more evident. Harvest has moved to 33 percent completion;
wide variations in maturity have kept farmers from taking advantage of the
favorable combining weather. Objective Yield head weight averages declined from
last month to the lowest since 1989. Harvested yields pointed to increases in
the Minnesota and South Dakota forecasts from August 1.

Other Spring Wheat: South Dakota’s spring wheat harvest was virtually complete
by September 1. Hail damage was a little higher than

normal, but quality has been consistently good. Combining moved ahead of average
progress in North Dakota by the end of August. Head scab problems have turned
out less severe than in the previous three years. The Montana harvest is well
ahead of normal, but Minnesota’s trails average. The Idaho harvest is 70 percent
complete overall with most remaining acreage in northern and eastern parts of
the state.

Objective Yield survey data showed little change in head populations from a
month ago. Forecasted gross weight per head improved in North Dakota and
significantly so in Minnesota. Forecasted weight per head has declined in
Montana to the lowest since 1990.

Rice: Total rice production is forecast at 171 million cwt, up 2 percent from

August 1 but down 1 percent from 1995. If realized, this would be the
fifth largest production on record. Area for harvest, estimated at 2.88 million
acres, is unchanged from August 1 and is 7 percent below last year. Yield per
harvested acre is expected to average 5,957 pounds per acre, up 94 pounds from
August 1 and 336 pounds above a year ago. Yield increases in Arkansas,
Mississippi, and Texas contributed to the 2 percent increase in production from
amonth ago. Yields in California, Louisiana, and Missouri remained unchanged
from August 1.

Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi growers report excellent crop prospects,
with crop conditions ranging from 77 to 84 percent in good-to-excellent
condition as of September 1. Rice harvest is running slightly behind normal in
Arkansas but ahead of schedule in Louisiana and Mississippi. In California’s
Sacramento Valley, cool temperatures during late~August hampered crop
development. Harvest is expected to begin the first week in September. The
Texas rice crop was 80 percent harvested by September 1, compared with a

61 percent average. Extensive rainfall during the last week of August delayed
final harvest operations.

Soybeans: Soybean acreage intended for harvest at 63.4 million, is unchanged

from the August 1 estimate. Crop maturity continues to be behind
normal. As of September 1, soybeans setting pods were 2 percentage points behind
last year and the five-year average. In Ohio, the percent of soybeans setting
pods was 16 points behind both last year and the five-year average. Pod setting
was complete in Louisiana as of September 1. The percent of soybean dropping
leaves lagged behind the 5 year average in 7 of the 8 major soybean producing
states. In Mississippi, soybeans dropping leaves were 18 percentage points ahead
of the average. No soybeans were dropping leaves in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio.

The pod count from the September Objective Yield Survey was the lowest since
1993. A record pod count is forecasted for Missouri; while in Nebraska the pod
count is the second highest on record. Forecasted pod counts for Minnesota,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-6 NASS, USDA


Index

Barley cece eee cee cece cece eee eee cette nett
CLOIUS FIULES coe cece cece cece enter ete n ne enees
Corn fOr Grain .ee cee see c eee e eee etter seeeee
Lee) ol oto) oe ad
Corn-Plants per ACTE «csc eect cece eee eee ee nnee
Cotton - Cummulative Boll Counts .......-....6-
Cottonseed woe. ee eeeee eer eeesee ee eerseneernces
Crop Moisture MapS ...... ccc eee e eect eee eens
Crop SUMMALY 2... ccc ee eee te ee eee eee eee eee
NUCS cece crc cee eee cee eee tere teen ene neenee
Papayas - Hawali ... se cece eee eee eee eee
PEANUES occ cece e cece cece eee nese eee reeseenees
PECANS 2c cece eee eee reer terete cence rete neene
POLALOES ©... eee eee eee ee eee cee eet e ee tee eee
Reliability Statement ..

Rice ........
Rice - By Grain Length

Sorghum for Grain

Soybeans for Beans .....
Soybeans - Pods for Beans ......-. cece rece eeree
SugarbeetsS ... ccc ce ee eee eee eee ee teens
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed ..... eee eee eneee
Tobacco by Class and Type ......eeeeeeeeececeee
Tobacco by States 1... cee cee cece rece cence
Wheat, All oo. cece eee ce eee eee teen eee
Wheat, by Class 2... . cee cece cee eee eee eens
Wheat, Durum ....-.. 66 eee eee eee eee eee eee ee
Wheat, Other Spring ...-..e cere ee es cece eeecne
Wheat, Other Spring- Heads per Acre ...........

Crop Production
September 1996 B-15

Page

Table Narrative
A-11 B- 5
A-24 B-10
A- 9 B- 4
A-17 B- 8
A-28

A-31

A-16

A- 3 B- 3
A-26 B-11
A-26 B-11
A-16 B- 7
A-27 B-12
A-18 B- 9

A-14 B- 6
A-14
A-10 B- 5
A-15 B- 6
A-30
A-25 B-10
A-25 B-10
A-20
A-21 B- 9
A-12
A-13
A-13 B- 6
A-13 B- 6
A-29

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Rice:
and United States,

AR : 1,340

CA : 465
LA : 570
MS : 288
MO 1/ : 112

TX 3 318

us 093

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres --

1,240
518
500
218
105
298

2,879

5,450.0
7,600.0
4,600.0
5,400.0
5,300.0
5,600.0

5,621.0

5,600.
7,900.
5,000.
5,800.
5,000.
6,100.

173,871

--- 1,000 cwt ---
73,020 69,500
35,352 40,922
26,209 25,000
15,552 12,644
5,936 5,250
17,802 18,178

171,494

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted September 1,

1996

Year
1994
1995
1996 1/

133,445
121,730
112,637

63,390
51,241
57,674

1,000 Cwt

1,183

197,779
173,871
171,494

1/ Indicated September 1, 1996, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of class percentages.

Crop Production
September 1996

The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1995-96 and Forecasted 1997 on September 1, 1996 1/ 2/

Utilized Production : Utilized Production
Boxes Fy Ton Equivalent

1,000 Tons -
Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 4/ :
AZ : 400 700 15 27
CA : 35,000 38,000 37,000 1,313 1,426 1,388
FL : 119,700 121,200 5,387 5,454
Tx : 950 830 40 35
us : 156,050 160,730 6,755 6,942
Valencia z
AZ : 650 950 24 36
CA : 21,000 28,000 788 1,051
FL : 85,800 82,000 3,861 3,690
TX 3 105 110 4 4
US : 107,555 111,060 4,677 4,781
All :
AZ : 1,050 1,650 39 63
CA : 56,000 66,000 2,101 2,477
FL : 205,500 203,200 9,248 9,144
TX : 1,055 940 44 39
us : 263,605 271,790 11,432 11,723

Citrus Fruit Footnotes
1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/ 1994-95 and 1995-96 revised. Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit
totals will be released September 23 in "Citrus Fruits, 1996 Summary".

3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85.

4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-24 NASS, USDA


time. Hot, dry weather in Hawaii aided harvest activity in many areas and
helped control insect populations. Heavy rains during August stimulated
sugarcane growth in Texas, and may offset the effect of the summer’s drought.

Papayas: Fresh papaya production from Hawaii is estimated at 2.94 million
pounds for August, up 1 percent from July but 16 percent lower than
August 1995.

Weather conditions were a mix of sunshine and showers in August over the major
papaya growing areas. Papaya ringspot virus continued to depress yields in Puna
orchards. Growers planted in former sugarcane fields along the Hamakua coast.
However, papaya ringspot virus was found for the first time in the area and
surveillance and roguing efforts were stepped up.

Papaya production area totaled 3,835 acres, 1 percent more than July and
2 percent more than last August. Harvested area, totaling 2,805 acres, was
6 percent higher than last month and 20 percent higher than a year ago.

California Fruits and Nuts: Many growers were picking their crops or preparing

vineyards and orchards for harvest during August.
Gala and Granny Smith apples were picked in the San Joaquin Valley. Table grape
harvest was also active in the San Joaquin Valley with Perlette, Flame Seedless,
and Thompson Seediess the primary varieties. Thompson Seedless grapes for
raisins were placed on trays for drying. Harvest of wine grapes was also
active. Bartlett pear picking continued in Lake County. Clingstone peach
harvest was winding down by the end of August. Picking continued for other
stonefruits such as prunes, plums, nectarines, and freestone peaches. Almond
growers were busy harvesting their crop, while walnut growers were preparing
their groves for harvest.

Hazelnut: Production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 20,000 tons for
1996, 49 percent below last year's crop and 5 percent below 1994.

If realized, this would be the smallest crop since 1989's 13,000 tons. Oregon

growers are expected to harvest 19,900 tons, roughly half of 1995's production.

Washington production is forecast at 100 tons, down from 200 tons the previous

year.

Crop progress is about normal for this date. A severe windstorm in December
caused considerable damage to limbs and may have reduced catkin numbers. The
winter concluded with a week of freezing weather in February followed by
flooding. Cool, wet weather during pollination limited nut set.

Results of the objective measurement survey showed the average number of sampled
nuts was 45 percent of last year, and 8 percent lower than in 1994. The
percentage of good nuts was just slightly lower than 1995 and the same as in
1994. Average size and dry weight of good nuts was the highest since 1994.

Walnuts: The 1996 California walnut production forecast is 220,000 tons, down

6 percent from last year’s production and also 6 percent below July’s
initial crop forecast. This level is based on the Walnut Objective Measurement
Survey conducted July 22 through August 18, 1996.

Survey data indicated an average nut set per tree of 1,630, down 8 percent from
1995's average of 1,777 nuts. The Hartley average nut set was down 19 percent;
the Serr, up 44 percent; and the Franquette, virtually unchanged from the
previous year. Of the nuts sampled, 94.4 percent were sound. In-shell weight
per nut was 22.1 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement was

32.3 millimeters. The average length in-shell was 39.0 millimeters.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-11 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States, 1995-96
(Domestic Units)

oats Bu: 54.7 59.0 161,847 157,633

Winter Wheat . : 37.7 37.3 1,547,311 1,494,716
All Hay Ton : 2.59 2.45 154,786 148,515
Alfalfa . : 3.46 3.31 84,980 80,382
All Other " : 1.98 1.87 69,806 68,133
Dry Edible Beans 2/ Cwt : 1,634 1,608 31,032 27,512
Potatoes :

Winter . H 208 215 2,473 2,907

Spring " : 240 238 20,193 21,197
Hops Lb : 1,826 1,788 78,852.4 78,884.0
Ginger Root (HI) . + 43,000 47,000 5,800.0 9,400.0
Apples, Comm'1 * : 10,736,000 10,733,500
Peaches * : 2,301,300 1,993,400
Pears Ton : 948.3 783.4
Grapes . : 5,936.3 5,954.0
Sweet Cherries . : 165.3 133.2
Tart Cherries Lb : 395,600 247,900
Apricots Ton : 58.5 73.3
Olives (CA) . 3 77.5 140.0
Dried Prunes (CA) " : 181.0 200.0
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) " H 23.0 19.0
Almonds (CA) Lb : 370,000 530,000
Hazelnuts Ton : 39.0 20.0
Walnuts (CA) " : 234.0 220.0

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
2/ Yield in pounds.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-5 NASS, USDA


High temperatures and low soil moisture supplies in the northern Rocky Mountains
provided ideal harvesting weather for small grains but pushed the region to
near-drought levels. Windy conditions, combined with hot, dry weather in the
Western States provided ideal conditions for fires. Warm, dry weather over the
Dakotas gave producers excellent harvest conditions and accelerated late-seeded
crop development. Widespread showers early in the month over the Southeast
improved crop conditions, but some dry pockets remained. Corn silking started
the month significantly behind the average in the western Corn Belt, with
progress in some States almost 2 weeks behind normal. The prolonged drought in
central Texas stressed cotton fields and caused some plants to shed bolls.

Rangeland fires in the Pacific Northwest at mid-month were intensified by hot,
dry windy weather. Cooler weather over the Corn Belt moderated crop stress from
dry soil conditions, but slowed corn development and caused condition ratings to
decline. Dry weather over the Dakotas allowed small grain harvest to proceed
rapidly, but variation in crop maturity prolonged the harvest period. Heat
stressed cotton in California and caused some bloom and boll drop in the San
Joaquin Valley. Later in the month, scattered thunderstorms throughout the
Midwest revived row crops but warmer weather increased plant requirements for
additional soil moisture. Heavy rains from Hurricane Dolly brought beneficial
precipitation to southern Texas but the rain arrived too late to benefit crops
ready for harvest. The rains did replenish soil moisture in south Texas for
recently planted small grains, but did not reach the Texas High Plains where
some dryland cotton fields continued to drop bolls due to the prolonged dry
conditions. Hot weather and dry conditions continued in the West, increasing
fire danger for pastures and rangeland. Some rice producers in the Delta
completed the first harvest and were re-flooding fields to prepare for the
second crop.

Warmer weather at the end of August advanced crop development, but crop
development remained behind the average, leaving most Midwestern producers
hoping for a late first freeze to allow crops to reach maturity. The warm
weather increased plant moisture requirements, and a dry August stressed row
crops. By month's end, soil moisture supplies declined from the Ohio Valley to
the central Great Plains. In the Southeast, wet conditions and high winds
damaged cotton fields that had open bolls. Dry conditions continued in the
Dakotas, where wheat seeding started but many producers were waiting for
rainfall to improve soil moisture conditions. Winter wheat planting was also
delayed in the West, where hot, dry weather allowed fires to continue. The end
of August brought showers that hindered planting from the Southeast to Texas.
August ended with most row crops’ development behind the average while cotton
and small grains were slightly ahead of normal.

Corn: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at

73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month, but up 13 percent from
1995. The September 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level stalk
count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota,
Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The September forecasted ears per acre are the
highest on record and, if realized, would exceed the previous record final ears
per acre set in 1992. Ear measurements from the sample plots indicate a length
slightly lower than the average but above last year. As of September 1,
33 percent of the acreage was reported dented in the 17 major States. ‘This
compares with 49 percent last year and 51 percent for the five-year average.
Corn rated in the fair to good condition totaled 71 percent compared to
78 percent for a year ago.

In Iowa, forecasted stalk and ear populations are both at record high levels
when compared to final counts. Ear length is slightly below average (1991-95)
but above 1995. Twenty percent of the corn was dented as of September 1,
compared to 47 percent in 1995 and the average of 44 percent. Corn condition
was 75 percent good to excellent.

Forecasted stalk and ear counts are at record high levels for Illinois and
Nebraska when compared to final levels. Ear length is slightly above the 1991-
95 time period average for Nebraska but slightly below for Illinois. Thirty-
five percent of the corn in Nebraska was dented compared to 30 percent in 1995

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-4 NASS, USDA


Tobacco:

Area Harvested

: --- 1,000 Acres --
cT l/ : 1,990 2,100
FL : 7,200 7,300
GA : 42,000 46,000
IN 7 6,700 7,600
KY : 166,200 205,900
MD : 8,500 8,000
MA 1/ : 500 710
MO 1l/: 2,700 2,900
NC + 261,100 281,300
OH : 7,700 8,300
PA 2 7,900 7,800
sc : 50,000 50,000
TMN > 51,690 56,550
VA > 44,170 46,170
wy il/: 2,000 2,000
wi 3 2,760 2,550
us +: 663,110 735,180

Crop Production
September 1996

Area Harvested, Yield,

---- Pounds

1,771
2,455
2,000
2,030
1,977
1,350
1,784
2,025
1,856
1,950
1,985
2,100
1,797
1,840
1,300
2,247

and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

1,650
2,530
2,250
2,000
2,179
1,500
1,627
2,200
2,135
1,800
2,010
2,300
2,060
2,168
1,850
2,012

2,150

A-21

2,682
16,575
80,660
15,265
453,687
12,750
792
8,015
599,853
18,360
18,360
108,100
232,289
106,092
3,550

5,866

Production

1995

- 1,000 Pounds

3,524
17,676
84,000
13,601
328,581
11,475
892
5,468
484,599
15,015
15,685
105,000
92,907
81,269
2,600

6,202

1,582,896 1,268,494

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

3,466
18,469
103,500
15,200
448,630
12,000
1,155
6,380
600,700
14,940
15,680
115,000
116,500
100,099
3,700
5,130

1,580,549

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Utilized Production

Crop and State

1,000 Pounds
Improved Varieties 1/

AL 3 2,000 7,000 10,000
AZ 2/ 3 18,000
AR : 600 900 900
CA : 1,500 2,900 2,100
FL : 400 600 1,500
GA z 50,000 62,000 85,000
LA : 1,500 2,000 3,000
MS 2 1,200 1,400
NM : 24,000 45,000 30,000
NC : 2,200 1,800 2,000
OK : 1,300 2,500 2,500
sc : 5,400 2,400 4,000
TX : 30,000 47,000 30,000
us : 118,900 175,300 190,400
Native & Seedling 3
AL : 2,000 3,000 5,000
AR : 900 700 500
FL 2 1,500 500 1,000
GA : 15,000 13,000 15,000
KS : 3,600 500 400
LA : 9,500 11,000 12,000
MS : 1,000 1,100
NC : 2,800 1,500 800
OK t 10,700 16,500 7,500
sc : 3,600 1,100 1,000
TX : 10,000 28,000 10,000
us 2 59,600 76,800 54,300
All Pecans :

AL 3 4,000 10,000 15,000
AZ 2/ 3 18,000
AR : 1,500 1,600 1,400
CA : 1,500 2,900 2,100
FL : 1,900 1,100 2,500
GA : 65,000 75,000 100,000
KS H 3,600 500 400
LA : 11,000 13,000 15,000
MS : 2,200 2,500
NM : 24,000 45,000 30,000
NC : 5,000 3,300 2,800
OK 3 12,000 19,000 10,000
sc : 9,000 3,500 5,000
TX 3 40,000 75,000 40,000
Oth Sts 3/ : 20,500 15,900

199,000 268,000 244,700

1/  Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.’

2/ Estimates published separately beginning in 1996.

3/ AZ, MS, MO, and TN in 1994. AZ, MO, and TN in 1995. No breakdown between
varieties available. Forecasts discontinued in 1996 for MO and IN.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-27 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State,
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 (continued)

Class and Type

--- Pounds --- 1,000 Pounds ---

Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3B, Dark

Air-cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt :
KY : 2,300 2,100 2,060 2,500 4,738 5,250
TN 3 510 460 2,000 2,100 1,020 966
us : 2,810 2,560 2,049 2,428 5,758 6,216
Type 36, Green River :
Belt :
KY : 1,300 1,200 2,100 2,700 2,730 3,240
Type 37, VA Sun-cured:
Belt :
VA : 70 70 1,125 1,700 79 119
Total 35-37 : 4,180 3,830 2,050 2,500 8,567 9,575

Class 4, Cigar Filler :
Type 41, PA Seedlieaf :
PA 3 4,500 4,300 2,050 2,100 9,225 9,030
Class 5, Cigar Binder :
Class 5A, CT Valley

Binder

Type 51, CT Valley

Broadleaf :
cT 1/ 3 1,000 1,080 1,980 1,840 1,980 1,987
MA 1/ 2 240 320 1,920 1,840 461 589
Us 1/ 3 1,240 1,400 1,969 1,840 2,441 2,576

Class 5B, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI:

Wl : 1,900 1,800 2,370 2,100 4,503 3,780
Type 55, Northern WI:

WI : 860 750 1,975 1,800 1,699 1,350
Total 54-55 3 2,760 2,550 2,247 2,012 6,202 5,130
Total 51-55 3 4,000 3,950 2,161 1,951 8,643 7,706

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:
Type 61, CT Valley
Shade-grown t
cr 1/ 3 990 1,020 1,560 1,450 1,544 1,479

MA 1/ : 260 390 1,655 1,450 431 566
US 1/ : 1,250 1,410 1,580 1,450 1,975 2,045
All Cigar Types :
Total 41-61 3 9,750 9,660 2,035 1,944 19,843 18,781
All Tobacco : 663,110 735,180 1,913 2,150 1,268,494 1,580,549

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-23 NASS, USDA



and the average of 52 percent. In Illinois, 36 percent of the corn was dented
compared to 57 percent in 1995 and the average of 61 percent. In Nebraska,

85 percent of the corn was rated in good to excellent condition compared to

52 percent for Illinois.

Minnesota and Wisconsin stalk counts from objective yield data indicate record
high levels. Forecasted ear population is below the five-year average for
Minnesota, but, above for Wisconsin. Ear length for both States is slightly
below the five-year average. Corn dented in both States lagged behind last year
an@ the average. Corn dented in Minnesota was 13 percent by September 1,
compared to 50 percent for 1995 and the average of 36 percent. Wisconsin corn
was 12 percent dented compared to 53 percent for last year and the average of
32 percent. The majority of corn was in fair to good condition for Minnesota
and Wisconsin with ratings of 79 and 76, respectively.

In Indiana, forecasted stalk counts were lower than 1995 but higher than the
average. The forecasted ear population is at a record high level. The corn
dented in Indiana is at 30 percent compared to 55 percent for last year and
the average of 58 percent. The majority (76 percent) of corn in Indiana is in
fair to goad condition.

Forecasted stalk count in Ohio is slightly below the average, but, ear
population is slightly above average. Only 11 percent of the corn was dented in
Ohio by September 1, compared to 51 percent a year ago and 54 percent for the
five-year average. Most corn in Ohio (74 percent) is rated in fair to good
condition.

Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 764 million bushels, 4 percent
higher than the August forecast and 66 percent above 1995.
Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at 12.0 million
acres, up 45 percent from the previous year. The forecasted yield, at
63.6 bushels per acre, was up 2.5 bushels from last month and 8.0 bushels above
1995, In the major producing State, Kansas, yields increased 5 bushels from
August to 72.0 bushels per acre, hoosting production 91 percent above their 1995
total. Arkansas, Colorado, Nebraska, and Oklahoma also showed yield increases
from the previous month.

Timely rains and moderate temperatures during August helped promote growth and
development in most of the forecasting States. August rains were especially
beneficial to late planted acreage. As of September 1, coloring was slightly
behind normal at 51 percent, compared with the 52 percent average. Harvest was
well underway in most of the Southern States with Louisiana growers’ 13 percent
ahead of normal. Persistent rains in Texas, however, slowed harvest operations
during August and less than 50 percent had been harvested by the first of
September. Harvest has just begun in Kansas and Oklahoma.

Barley: Production is forecast at 394 million bushels, up 2 percent from August

and 10 percent above the 1995 production. The expected yield per acre
is forecasted at 58.3 bushels compared with last month’s 57.4 and last year‘s
57.2 bushels. Yield increases from August in Minnesota, North Dakota, and
Wyoming more than offset declines in Montana, Oregon, and Washington.

Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from August at 6.76 million
acres, up 8 percent from the previous year.

Favorable conditions during August helped push harvest progress ahead of normal
in most of the major producing States. Seventy-four percent of the crop had
been combined by September 1, compared with the 69 percent average. Head blight
scab and grasshoppers caused minor problems in some North Dakota fields but,
overall, growers are reporting that yields are better than anticipated. Hot,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-5 NASS, USDA


Potatoes:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal

Group,

State, and United States, 1994-96

Seasonal
Group

State

Spring 1/

Hastings
Other FL

IA 1/
MD 1/

5.0
9
11.9

6

17.
36.
27.

16.

WoUNssc0nmuN

YUSCWNARWUAULEUN

- 1,000 Acres

NVUNOUUFOL

--> Cw ----

260
170
208

160
270
350
218
220
210
185
185
240

170
320
305
250
270
150
240
230
285
270
320

95
235
240
254

250
190
215

160
275
375
195
200
180
175
170
238

150
360
320
250
260
200
200
230
300
240
320

90
240
175
250

438
1,670
7,790
8,588
6,380
2,208
3,060
1,100

22,646

1,190
2,109
3,069
816
1,450
328
250
1,734
1,408
588
1,088
126
1,800
1,425
17,381

See footnotes at end of table.

Crop Production
September 1996

A-18

1,000 Cwt ------
1,300 1,425
1,173 1,482
2,473 2,907

400 304
1,755 2,475
6,230 7,538
7,830 6,940
5,940 5,500
1,890 1,440
3,053 2,835

925 1,105

20,193 21,197
1,139 1,005
1,760 2,088
2,776 3,104
1,475 1,475
1,485 1,794

240 300

360 380
1,587 1,610
1,254 1,650

702 600
1,344 1,248

124 108
1,645 2,280
2,040 1,453

17,931 19,095
--continued

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


U.S. Corn Production

1987 - 1996
Billlon Bushels

11.00

r 10.10
10.00

9.00
8.00
7.00

6.00

5.00

L L L

oo f . 1 ! ‘
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Year

Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bushels --
AL 1/ : 8 10 40.0 45.0 45.0 320 450
AR 3 185 215 71.0 70.0 76.0 13,135 16,340
co : 165 220 28.0 35.0 36.0 4,620 7,920
GA 1/ 3 30 40 37.0 40.0 40.0 1,110 1,600
IL 3 170 230 69.0 74.0 74.0 11,730 17,020
KS : 3,100 4,600 56.0 67.0 72.0 173,600 331,200
Ky 1/ 3 22 19 84.0 92.0 92.0 1,848 1,748
LA : 84 155 70.0 75.0 75.0 5,880 11,625
MS 3 41 72 65.0 70.0 68.0 2,665 4,896
MO 3 490 650 73.0 94.0 94.0 35,770 61,100
NE : 980 1,000 58.0 81.0 85.0 56,840 85,000
NM 3 130 225 26.0 35.0 35.0 3,380 7,875
Nc 1/ 3 10 10 65.0 53.0 53.0 650 530
OK : 320 480 40.0 45.0 50.0 12,800 24,000
sc 1/ : 8 5 40.0 45.0 45.0 320 225
sD 3 120 160 40.0 53.0 50.0 4,800 8,000
TN 1/ 2 15 13 87.0 88.0 88.0 1,305 1,144
TX : 2,400 3,900 54.0 47.0 47.0 129,600 183,300
us 8,278 12,004 55.6 61.1 63.6 460,373 763,973

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-10 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM PALMER)

August 31, 1996 UPDATED BIWEEKLY

MOIST}

OIST

4 Ni
MODERATE,

NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _peses on pretminary report

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
@rought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-2 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Pods with Beans

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting soybean objective
yield surveys in 8 States during 1996. Plots are randomly selected froma
scientifically drawn sample of soybean fields, which are visited monthly
from August through harvest, to obtain specific counts and measurements.
Sample data and the derived percentages from the surveys presented in the
following table are not Agricultural Statistics Board official estimates but
are intended to show trends in soybean production practices.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet
Selected States, 1992 - 1996 1/

State
and 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Month
Number of Pods

AR Sept 2/: NA NA NA NA NA
Nov : 1,713 1,399 1,782 1,755
Final : 1,705 1,327 1,673 1,609

IL Sept + 1,698 1,937 1,745 1,816 1,508
Nov 1,503 1,712 1,639 1,764
Final 1,502 1,701 1,636 1,764

IN Sept 1,623 1,938 1,850 1,755 1,439
Nov 1,543 1,703 1,574 1,677
Final 1,543 1,703 1,570 1,677

IA Sept 1,501 1,336 1,887 1,739 1,587
Nov 1,464 1,340 1,820 1,611
Final 1,473 1,340 1,820 1,616

MN Sept 1,431 1,037 1,678 1,613 1,492
Nov 1,367 1,106 1,496 1,501
Final 1,367 1,105 1,496 1,501

MO Sept 1,682 1,493 1,470 895 1,771
Nov 1,607 1,727 1,643 1,462
Final 1,602 1,699 1,659 1,469

NE Sept 1,517 1,469 1,676 1,404 1,642
Nov 1,504 1,414 1,826 1,420
Final 1,509 1,445 1,826 1,420

OH Sept z 1,462 1,617 1,950 1,790 1,429
Nov 1,394 1,361 1,643 1,647
Final 1,404 1,361 1,643 1,650

1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ Not available due to plant immaturity.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-30 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

Hectares
corn 28,832,140 32,195,110 26,302,830 29,651,230
Sorghum 3,825,940 5,375,900 3,350,020 4,857,900
Barley 2,706,970 2,887,060 2,540,240 2,736,110
All Wheat 27,995,240 30,604,280 24,674,350 25,543,220
Durum 1,390,510 1,442,720 1,358,140 1,398,610
Other Spring 6,885,800 8,096,230 6,726,760 7,917,760
Rice 1,263,040 1,177,650 1,251,710 1,165,100
Soybeans 25,323,480 26,027,640 24,938,620 25,673,530
Peanuts 622,210 579,920 613,910 570,820
All Cotton 6,851,970 5,764,000 6,477,750 5,258,780
Upland 6,765,120 5,657,160 6,392,320 5,152,800
Amer-Pima 86,850 106,840 85,430 105,990
Potatoes
Summer 2/ 29,340 32,330 28,610 30,880
Fall 2/ 495,380 510,400 487,730 503,680
Total 2/ 565,840 585,420 555,280 576,120
Tobacco 268,350 297,520
Sugarbeets 584,620 560,130 573,490 539,860
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed : 377,290 351,680

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.
2/ 1995 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995-96
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

Hectares

Oats 2,564,120 1,864,810 1,197,480 1,081,740
Winter Wheat 19,718,920 21,065,330 16,589,460 16,226,850
Rye 652,360 607,840 152,970 148,520
Sunflower 1,407,510 1,127,870 1,363,000 1,086,590
Flaxseed 66,770 45,330 59,490 42,900
All Hay 24,191,960 24,523,810

Alfalfa 9,942,830 9,816,160

All Other 14,249,130 14,707,650
Dry Edible Beans 837,430 735,730 768,630 692,260
Potatoes

Winter 3 5,380 5,500 4,820 5,460

Spring 7 35,730 37,190 34,120 36,100
Sweetpotatoes : 35,370 36,180 33,830 34,880
Hops 17,480 17,860
Ginger Root (HI) 50 80

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Oats
Winter Wheat
All Hay
Alfalfa
All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Potatoes
Winter
Spring
Hops
Ginger Root (HI)
Apples, Comm'1l
Peaches
Pears
Grapes
Sweet Cherries
Tart Cherries
Apricots
Olives (CA)
Dried Prunes (CA)
Prunes and Plums
(Excl CA)
Almonds (CA)
Hazelnuts
Walnuts (CA)

Yield per Hectare and Production,

United States,
(Metric Units)

1.96
2.54
5.80
7.75
4.44
1.83

23.27
26.84

2.05
52.60

PeYUONN

24,

53.

Yield per Hectare

212
51
+49
+43
+20
-80

15

-63
-00

25

1995-96

Metric Tons

2,349,200
42,110,900
140,419,500
77,092,560
63,326,940
1,407,590

112,170
915,940
35,770
2,630
4,869,770
1,043,850
860,240
5,385,320
149,910
179,440
53,070
70,310
164,200

20,870
167,830
35,380
212,280

Production

1996 1/

2,288,040
40,679,500
134,730,540
72,921,320
61,809,220
1,247,920

131,860
961,480
35,780
4,260
4,868,630
904,190
710,690
5,401,380
120,840
112,450
66,500
127,010
181,440

17,240
240,400
18,140
199,580

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier

Crop Production
September 1996

forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 1993-95 (continued)

Seasonal : Area Harvested Yield : Production

Group Eeablet eater teeieieiatateteleteteietateielenetetatatatateelatanenened
and : : :

State

- 1,000 Acres - 1,000 Cwt
Fall 1/ 2/ 3/

CA 3 13.0 11.5 410 5,600 5,330
co : 76.8 77.7 310 25,795 23,808
ID : 398.0 408.0 333 138,801 132,657

10 sWwCo : 27.0 28.0 420 12,690 11,340

Other ID : 371.0 380.0 327 126,111 121,317
IN : 4.6 4.7 260 1,148 1,196
ME 78.0 76.0 220 18,375 17,160
MA 3 3.3 2.8 260 744 858
MI 4/ : 54.5 51.0 300 14,040 16,350
MN 4/ 3 77.0 82.0 270 20,035 20,790
MT : 9.8 10.0 300 3,200 2,940
NE : 11.5 12.4 320 3,996 3,680
NV : 7.6 8.0 365 2,760 2,774
NM 6.3 6.2 380 3,000 2,394
NY 28.5 28.5 270 7,805 7,695
ND 121.0 130.0 210 28,200 25,410
OH 5.4 5.3 260 1,348 1,404
OR 3 53.2 58.5 466 27,514 24,788

Malheur : 12.8 12.5 390 5,074 4,992

Other OR : 40.4 46.0 490 22,440 19,796
PA 3 17.0 16.5 240 3,780 4,080
RI : 0.9 0.7 270 248 243
sD : 5.2 5.7 190 1,540 988
UT 3 5.1 4.2 240 1,590 1,224
WA : 147.0 163.0 550 88,920 80,850
WI 3 80.0 81.0 325 25,740 26,000
wy 3 1.5 0.9 260 476 390
Total : 1,205.2 1,244.6 334 424,655 403,009
Us -1 1,423.6 323 467,054 443,606

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ 1995 revised.

3/ Estimates for 1996 yield and production for fall potatoes will be
published November 12, 1996.

4/ Summer potatoes included with fall in 1994 for comparative purposes.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-19 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

1996

1,000 Acres - Bushels - - -- 1,000 Bushels

AL : 220 270 75.0 80.0 80.0 16,500 21,600
AZ 1/ : 22 35 170.0 175.0 175.0 3,740 6,125
AR 1/ : 85 190 115.0 95.0 95.0 9,775 18,050
CA : 150 220 160.0 175.0 175.0 24,000 38,500
co 3 830 940 111.0 145.0 140.0 92,130 131,600
CT 2/ z

DE : 139 150 105.0 115.0 125.0 14,595 18,750
FL 1/ : 60 100 90.0 80.0 80.0 5,400 8,000
GA : 350 540 90.0 90.0 90.0 31,500 48,600
ID 1/ : 35 40 | 140.0 125.0 125.0 4,900 5,000
IL : 10,000 10,800 113.0 125.0 129.0 1,130,000 1,393,200
IN : 5,300 5,450 113.0 118.0 118.0 598,900 643,100
IA : 11,400 12,400 123.0 129.0 131.0 1,402,200 1,624,400
KS : 1,970 2,350 124.0 145.0 145.0 244,280 340,750
KY : 1,140 1,200 108.0 120.0 122.0 123,120 146,400
LA ey 2 221 535 105.0 110.0 110.0 23,205 58,850
ME 3

MD : 400 465 105.0 120.0 120.0 42,000 55,800
MA 2/ :

MI zs 2,170 2,350 115.0 99.0 94.0 249,550 220,900
MN > 6,150 7,000 119.0 115.0 115.0 731,850 805,000
MS 1/ : 275 610 95.0 93.0 93.0 26,125 56,730
MO : 1,470 2,600 102.0 119.0 122.0 149,940 317,200
MT 1/ : 16 20 120.0 130.0 130.0 1,920 2,600
NE : 7,700 8,250 111.0 134.0 139.0 854,700 1,146,750
NH 2/ : .

NJ 1/ : 78 94 93.0 107.0 107.0 7,254 10,058
NM 1/ 2 73 80 160.0 165.0 165.0 11,680 13,200
NY : 610 700 105.0 108.0 111.0 64,050 77,700
NC 3 700 930 107.0 96.0 96.0 74,900 89,280
ND : 510 700 79.0 80.0 80.0 40,290 56,000
OH : 3,100 2,750 121.0 111.0 108.0 375,100 297,000
OK 1/ : 130 180 125.0 105.0 105.0 16,250 18,900
OR 1/ : 21 28 160.0 180.0 180.0 3,360 5,040
PA : 980 1,050 96.0 120.0 123.0 94,080 129,150
RI 2/ :

sc : 265 380 91.0 75.0 75.0 24,115 28,500
sD : 2,450 3,650 79.0 84.0 84.0 193,550 306,600
TMN : 540 680 118.0 105.0 110.0 63,720 74,800
TX : 1,900 1,800 114.0 90.0 95.0 216,600 171,000
UT 1/ : 20 22 100.0 135.0 135.0 2,000 2,970
VT 2/ z

VA : 275 300 111.0 1i4d.0 120.0 30,525 36,000
WA 1/ : 102 115 190.0 180.0 180.0 19,380 20,700
wy 1/ : 40 40 100.0 100.0 100.0 4,000 4,000
wi : 3,050 3,200 114.0 111.0 109.0 347,700 348,800
wy 1/ z 48 55 104.0 115.0 115.0 4,992 6,325
us 64,995 73,269 113.5 118.7 120.2 7,373,876 8,803,928

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-9 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 1/

1994

CA 115.0 94.0 28.0 3,948 3,220 2,632
co 41.1 51.7 17.4 946 715 1,122
ID 197.0 184.0 24.0 5,608 4,728 4,600
MI 188.0 130.0 15.8 3,029 2,970 1,950
MN 416.0 440.0 17.7 8,467 7,363 7,612
MT 55.5 57.3 21.5 1,307 1,193 1,289
NE 72.3 51.0 16.4 1,504 1,186 923
NM 3 “9 24
ND : 204.2 222.0 19.2 4,272 3,929 3,831
OH 5 15.3 4.2 15.0 264 230 71
OR : 17.8 16.3 22.9 456 408 416
Tx 3 19.3 13.1 18.2 497 351 288
WA : 13.0 483
WY $ 61.5 56.5 20.3 20.5 1,103 1,249 1,158
Oth 3
Sts 2/ 3: 14.1 34.3 452 484

us : 2,417.1 1,334.0 19.8 19.8 31,853 28,026 26,399

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA prior to 1996.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production 1/

1,000 Acres -

FL 437.0 437.0 34.6 34.0 14,937 15,122 14,858
HI 53.0 43.0 76.8 78.0 5,364 4,070 3,354
LA 400.0 350.0 25.6 23.0 9,272 10,240 8,050
TX 42.3 39.0 32.2 26.0 1,356 1,364 1,014
US : 932.3 869.0 33.0 31.4 30,929 30,796 27,276

1/ Net tons.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1996 A-25 NASS, USDA


Nsey National
Crop ‘CssccTM
Service

Production usa
Washington, D.C.

Released September 11, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on “Crop Production” call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 8:00 a.m.
to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics,
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information
Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The “Crop Production”
U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, Report 1150. See Page
B-17. Index and report features are located at the end of this report.

Corn Production up ~ Soybean Production down

Corn production is forecast at 8.80 billion bushels, up 19 percent from 1995
production. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to
average 120.2 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from last month and 6.7 bushels
from 1995. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at

73.3 million acres, unchanged from last month. Yield prospects increased in
Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska, but yields decreased in Ohio and Wisconsin.
Minnesota and Indiana yields were unchanged.

Soybeans: As of September 1 soybean production is forecast at 2.27 billion
bushels, down 1 percent from August 1, but up 5 percent from 1995. Yield is
forecast at 35.8 bushels per acre, 0.4 bushels below the August 1 estimate, but
0.9 bushels above a year ago. Acres intended for harvest at 63.4 million acres,
is unchanged from August 1. Crop maturity continues to be behind normal. As of
the first of the month, soybeans were rated in fair to good condition.

The estimates in this release are based on conditions of September 1 and do not
reflect the effecta of Hurricane Fran which hit the coast of North Carolina on
September 5. High winds and heavy rains caused damage to some crops in the
Carolinas and Virginia.

Cr Pr 2-2 (9-96)


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA
Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,

20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.

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ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about
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1-800-727-9540, 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., or e-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV.

— See Se - a a
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-17 NASS, USDA

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1996 404-035/41005


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Yield Production

-- 1,000 Bushels ---

1,000 Acres

AL 1/ 3 80 80 36.

° 45.0 45.0 2,880 3,600
AZ 1/ : 122 177 84.9 94.3 94.3 10,354 16,689
AR 1/ = 1,000 1,240 47.0 52.0 52.0 47,000 64,480
cA 1/ 3 493 708 66.4 75.8 75.8 32,725 53,700
co 1/ 2,738 2,368 38.4 32.1 32.1 105,260 76,060
DE 1/ 3 68 78 64.0 57.0 57.0 4,352 4,446
FL 1/ 2 12 10 32.0 38.0 38.0 384 380
GA 1/ z 300 350 38.0 47.0 47.0 11,400 16,450
Ip : 1,330 1,550 77.7 77.3 75.5 103,320 117,000
IL 1/ : 1,390 1,100 49.0 39.0 39.0 68,110 42,900
IN 1/ : 660 720 60.0 36.0 36.0 39,600 25,920
IA 1/ : 35 $5 35.0 40.0 40.0 1,225 2,200
ks 1/ : 11,000 8,800 26.0 29.0 29.0 286,000 255,200
Ky 1/ z 460 530 53.0 53.0 53.0 24,380 28,090
LA 1/ 3 80 130 36.0 43.0 43.0 2,880 5,590
MD 1/ : 225 231 64.0 54.0 54.0 14,400 12,474
MI 1/ r 620 650 60.0 40.0 40.0 37,200 26,000
MN 2 2,245 2,442 32.0 34.0 42.9 71,849 104,750
MS 1/ : 165 220 38.0 48.0 48.0 6,270 10,560
MO 1/ > 1,230 1,300 39.0 40.0 40.0 47,970 52,000
MT 1 5,435 6,375 36.0 30.5 29.8 195,750 190,125
NE 1/ 2 2,100 2,150 41.0 34.0 34.0 86,100 73,100
NV 1/ : 10 19 85.0 86.6 86.6 850 1,645
NJ 1/ 3 32 38 57.0 50.0 50.0 1,824 1,900
NM 1/ : 150 125 22.0 33.0 33.0 3,300 4,125
ny 1/ : 125 150 55.0 "$2.0 52.0 6,875 7,800
NC 1/ : 640 590 44.0 45.0 45.0 28,160 26,550
ND : 11,114 12,455 27.0 29.8 31.6 300,078 393,395
OH 1/ : 1,210 1,350 61.0 41.0 41.0 73,810 55,350
OK 1/ : 5,200 4,900 21.0 19.0 19.0 109,200 93,100
OR 1/ z 939 975 67.8 69.7 69.7 63,678 67,950
PA 1/ : 185 190 55.0 55.0 55.0 10,175 10,450
sc 1/ : 280 270 32.0 48.0 48.0 8,960 12,960
sD 2 2,752 3,874 33.0 31.4 33.7 90,736 130,520
TN 1/ 2 340 430 47.0 44.0 44.0 15,980 18,920
TX 1/ : 2,800 2,900 27.0 24.0 24.0 75,600 69,600
UT 1/ 3 166 173 53.9 44.0 44.0 8,950 7,620
VA 1/ 275 280 64.0 55.0 55.0 17,600 15,400
WA > 2,595 2,745 59.3 66.5 66.5 153,770 182,670
wy 1/ 3 12 11 52.0 52.0 52.0 624 572
WI 1/ 3 143 135 56.4 48.9 48.9 8,070 6,600
wy 1/ z 215 244 36.7 28.1 28.1 7,890 6,849
us : 60,971 63,118 35.8 35.6 36.4 2,185,539 2,295,690

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-12 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

1995 : 1996 1996

1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bushels --
AZ 1/ : 21 49 90.0 105.0 105.0 1,890 5,145
CA 1/ 3 200 220 70.0 65.0 65.0 14,000 14,300
co 3 100 90 100.0 100.0 100.0 10,000 9,000
DE 1/ : 37 23 80.0 70.0 70.0 2,960 1,610
ID 7 760 730 80.0 77.0 77.0 60,800 56,210
KS 1/ : 9 10 35.0 30.0 30.0 315 300
KY 1/ : 15 20 70.0 70.0 70.0 1,050 1,400
MD 1/ 2 62 49 81.0 65.0 65.0 $,022 3,185
MI 1/ 3 23 25 50.0 46.0 46.0 1,150 1,150
MN 3 580 525 50.0 55.0 59.0 29,000 30,975
MT > 1,200 1,250 52.0 43.0 41.0 62,400 51,250
NE 1/ : 6 18 37.0 43.0 43.0 222 774
NV 1/ z 4 5 80.0 100.0 100.0 320 500
NJ 1/ 3 5 3 65.0 68.0 68.0 325 204
Ne 1/ : 30 20 60.0 65.0 65.0 1,800 1,300
ND : 2,250 2,550 45.0 52.0 55.0 101,250 140,250
OK 1/ 3 3 3 30.0 25.0 25.0 90 75
OR : 95 130 76.0 71.0 69.0 7,220 8,970
PA 1/ 3 75 75 69.0 65.0 65.0 5,175 4,875
sc i/ : 5 4 42.0 55.0 55.0 210 220
sD : 160 140 38.0 47.0 47.0 6,080 6,580
Tx 1/ : 7 7 46.0 32.0 32.0 322 224
UT : 93 100 90.0 85.0 85.0 8,370 8,500
VA 1/ 2 80 80 84.0 67.0 67.0 6,720 5,360
WA : 290 440 72.0 64.0 62.0 20,880 27,280
wi 72 75 48.0 55.0 55.0 3,456 4,125
wy 95 120 85.0 85.0 87.0 8,075 10,440
us : 6,277 6,761 57.2 57.4 58.3 359,102 394,202

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-11 NASS, USDA


Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between August 23 and September 3 to gather information on
expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat, corn,
soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually
account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots
were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected
plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of
plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to
forecast the number of heads, ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts
are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological
yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net
yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is
harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field,
another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 16,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
September 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised;

instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a
balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports,
Processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1

production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical
Measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
September 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1976-1995 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average
becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 5.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that
the current production forecast of 8.80 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 5.9 percent or approximately 519 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 10.2 percent or approximately 898 million bushels.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-13 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

August 31, 1996 UPDATED WEEKLY

f

'ABNORMALLY

vey
eee

avon
Ost

af
+7
a a a
ATIF ]\*

NOAMUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _pesad on sreirnary parts

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-1 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield
surveys in 5 States which account for about 65 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton
production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton
fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1
through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts
shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not
official estimates of NASS.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September 1992-1996, and
November and Final, 1992-1995 1/

1992 : 1,076 822 817 839 841 819
1993: 859 769 753 930 839 839
1994 : 1,019 813 812 828 805 806
1995: 850 689 689 751 682 680
1996 : 857 707

1992: 882 858 875 896 713 708
1993: 746 662 661 697 619 608
1994 : 808 747 748 864 761 760
1995 : 679 615 615 682 607 607
1996 : 659 816

1992: 432 484 489
1993: 505 480 489

1994 : 515 484 486

1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls
(at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and
burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolis.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-31 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

Aug 1,
1996

1996

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Barley
All Wheat
Durum
Other Spring
Rice
Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts
All Cotton
Upland
Amer-Pima
Cottonseed
Potatoes
Summer 1/ 2/
Fall 1/
Total 2/
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed
Pecans

SCOONNANNNYOWA

: 28,
: 37.
: 36.

7 44,

12
+49
-08
+41
+05
17
-30
+35
56
-60
60
+94

RPOONNANNNWOWA

28.

54
+99
14
-45
+22
-36
+68
42
67
74
+73
-18

05

+4l
-36

36

18
1

5

1

Metric

7,305,080
1,694,010
7,818,520
9,480,620
2,783,610
4,586,110
7,886,660

58,563,320

1
2

2

2

1,570,100
3,897,230
3,817,190

80,040
6,213,040

813,340
8,280,180
0,121,630

575,380
5,424,760

7,937,660
121,560

Tons

220,853,720
18,636,510
8,444,480
61,217,590
3,256,390
17,281,700
7,655,910
62,586,900
1,518,130
4,044,690
3,919,280
125,410
6,442,280

856,200
723,760
23,642,140

25,061,890

223,630,070
19,405,810
8,582,740
62,478,440
3,102,030
18,696,910
7,778,840
61,765,800
1,525,270
3,897,280
3,772,310
124,970
6,210,950

866,130
716,930
23,948,770

24,744,370

1/ 1995 revised.
2/ August 1 estimate carried forward from July 1.

Crop Production
September 1996

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class,

State, and United States

Class and Type

Class 1, Flue-cured
Type 11, Old Belts
NC
VA
US
Type 12, Eastern NC
Belt
Nc

sc Belt

Type 14, GA-FL Belt

Total 11-14
Class 2, Fire-cured
Type 21, VA Belt
VA
Type 22, Eastern
District
KY
TN
US
Type 23, Western
District
KY
TN
us
Total 21-23
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-cured
Type 31, Burley
IN
kY
MO 1/
NC
OH
TMN
VA
wy 1/
us

Belt
MD
PA
US
Total 31-32

Area Harvested

Type,
1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

68,000
34,000

: 102,000

: 151,000
Type 13, NC Border & :

34,000
50,000
84,000

7,200
42,000
49,200

: 386,200

1,100

3,900
7,600
11,500

3,700
580
4,280
16,880

6,700

155,000

2,700
8,100
7,700
43,000
9,000
2,000

: 234,200
Type 32, Southern MD :

8,500
3,400
11,900

: 246,100

72,000
35,000
107,000

165,000

36,000
50,000
86,000

7,300
46,000
53,300

411,300

1,100

3,900
7,500
11,400

3,700
590
4,290
16,790

7,600
195,000
2,900
8,300
8,300
48,000
10,000
2,000
282,100

8,000
3,500
11,500
293,600

1,920
1,935
1,925

1,860

1,845
2,100
1,997

2,455
2,000
2,067
1,933

1,400

2,370
2,285
2,314

2,600
2,450
2,580
2,322

Pounds --

2,200
2,200
2,200

2,100

2,200
2,300
2,258

2,530
2,250
2,288
2,183

1,800

2,700
2,400
2,503

2,800
2,600
2,772
2,526

2,000
2,150
2,200
2,000
1,800
2,000
2,100
1,850
2,102

1,500
1,900
1,622
2,084

130,560
65,790
196,350

280,860

62,730
105,000
167,730

17,676
84,000
101,676
746,616

1,540

9,243
17,366
26,609

9,620
1,421
11,041
39,190

13,601
302,250
5,468
10,449
15,015
73,100
13,860
2,600
436,343

11,475
6,460
17,935
454,278

Production

1,000 Pounds --

158,400
77,000
235,400

346,500

79,200
115,000
194,200

18,469
103,500
121,969
898,069

1,980

10,530
18,000
28,530

10,360

1,534
11,894
42,404

15,200
419,250
6,380
16,600
14,940
96,000
21,000
3,700
593,070

12,000
6,650
18,650
611,720

Crop Production
September 1996

--continued

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Texas’ High Plains cotton made good progress from the rains received during
August. Heavy rain caused some problems with the mature crop in the southern
producing areas, by delaying harvest. Producers were also concerned about damage
to the open bolls. Harvest neared completion in South Texas and Coastal Bend
areas. On September 1, Texas boll opening was at 26 percent, equaling the 5-
year average. Crop condition in Texas in early September, showed 38 percent
was rated good to excellent and 31 percent was in fair condition. Objective
yield survey data indicate Texas’ large boll counts are the second lowest
during the past 10 years, and small bolls and squares rank eighth and seventh,
respectively for the same period.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated their cotton mostly in good to excellent condition on September 1.
Arkansas and Tennessee show the best crop condition in the region with about
three-fourths rated as good to excellent.

Increased insect pressure occurred in Arkansas and Louisiana, but was lighter
in Mississippi and Tennessee. Limited defoliation was underway in most States.
All of these States’ boll openings were ahead of the 5-year average, on the
first of the month. Mississippi’s crop was 77 percent opened, one-third ahead
of the average, and Arkansas was 16 percent ahead of normal progress, with

37 percent of the bolls open. Data from cotton objective yield plots show
Arkansas has the third highest count of large bolls since 1986, but small bolls
rank ninth and squares are the third lowest. Mississippi’s large bolls are the
second highest in the past 10 years, but small bolls and squares are the third
lowest and second lowest, respectively. Louisiana ranks eighth in large boll,
small boll, and square counts since 1986.

Sixty-one percent of Arizona's crop waS in good to excellent condition and

81 percent of bolls were opening in early September, 8 points ahead of average.
Storms during the past month were accompanied by hail, high winds, and heavy
rainfall. Cotton development in California remained ahead of average, with

50 percent of the crop showing open bolls compared to an average pace of

34 percent. Ninety percent of the State's crop was in good to excellent
condition on September 1, but heat stress during August caused an unusual
amount of fruit to shed. California growers sprayed for aphids, lygus, mites,
and worms and whitefly infested some fields in southern Kern county.
Defoliation was active in the Desert areas and was beginning in the southern San
Joaquin Valley. Objective yield survey counts for California indicate the
lowest count of large bolls during the past 10 years, and small boll and square
counts are the fourth lowest during the same time period.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina), the majority of the crop was in good to excellent condition, with

85 percent of North Carolina's crop rated good to excellent on September 1.,
Insect pressure increased in Georgia and 12 percent of their crop was in poor to
very poor condition, with 59 percent rated good to excellent in early September.
Alabama and Georgia’s boll opening exceeded the average pace, but the Carolinas’
progress was behind normal as more heat units are needed to advance the crop’s
development. Both of these States had 20 percent of their bolls open on
September 1, 6 points behind average for North Carolina and 3 points behind for
South Carolina. Fifty-two percent of the Georgia crop was opened, 22 percent
ahead of the 5-year average.

The American-Pima production forecast, at 574,000 bales, is up 56 percent from
1995's output, but down 2,000 bales from August. Arizona was the only State

with a change in production from the August forecast, as storms with hail, high
wind, and heavy precipitation caused a slight decline in yield potential. U.S.
yield is indicated at 1,052 pounds per harvested acre, up 216 pounds from last
year. California’s crop development remained nearly two weeks ahead of normal,
and defoliation began in the Desert areas. Extreme heat in the San Joaquin

Valley crop caused limited bloom and boll drop during the first part of August.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-8 NASS, USDA


Insect pressure was controlled well with timely spraying. In Texas, the crop
continued making good progress, although heavy rains had been received.

Ginnings totaled 343,150 running bales prior to September 1, compared with
427,000 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 679,950 running
bales in 1994,

Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 19,1 million cwt

for 1996, up 6 percent from a year ago and 10 percent above
comparable States in 1994. Harvest is expected from 76,300 acres this year, a
gain of 8 percent from a year ago and 6 percent above two years ago. The
average yield is forecast at 250 cwt per acre, down 4 cwt from last year’s
record high but 8 cwt above 1994 yields.

Rain delayed harvest progress along the Atlantic Coast and washed out some
fields in Virginia's Eastern Shore. Farther north in Delaware and New Jersey,
good harvests are winding down. Alabama's growers couldn’t get enough moisture
for their crop; while Texas yields turned out better than expected after a dry
start. Hail shredded some fields in Colorado and Nebraska and reduced yields.
Missouri growers bypassed some poor quality fields in southeast counties.
California summer harvest is almost finished after a good season with favorable
weather conditions.

Fall Potatoes, 1995 final: The final tally of fall potatoes for 1995 places
production at 403 million cwt, up fractionally from
the preliminary estimate made last December. This is 5 percent below 1994
production but 3 percent above 1993. Harvested acreage was estimated at
1.21 million acres in 1995, down slightly from the year earlier but up 5 percent
from 1993. Idaho and Oregon marketed slightly more potatoes than earlier
estimated. Crops in Michigan and Wisconsin were a little smaller than earlier
estimated.

All potatoes, 1995: Final production of all potatoes in 1995 totaled

444 million cwt, down 5 percent from a year earlier but
3 percent larger than 1993 production. Harvested area totaled 1.37 million
acres, down 1 percent from 1994 but 4 percent above 1993 harvest. The average
yield for 1995 was 323 cwt per acre, down 15 cwt from 1994 and 3 cwt below 1993,
Seasonal estimates of production in 1995 were 2.47 million cwt for winter, up
4 percent from a year earlier; spring production, at 20.2 million cwt was down
11 percent; summer potatoes at 17.9 million gained 3 percent; while fall output
of 403 million cwt was down 5 percent.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1996 is forecast at 1.58 billion
pounds, down fractionally from August 1 but up 25 percent from 1995.

Harvested acreage, estimated at 735,180 acres, is unchanged from August 1 and is

11 percent above last year. Yields for 1996 are expected to average

2,150 pounds per acre, 20 pounds below last month but 237 pounds above the

average for 1995.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 898 million pounds, up 20 percent
from 1995. Producers plan to harvest 411,300 acres, up 6 percent from last
year. The North Carolina flue-cured tobacco harvest is on schedule with nearly
half the crop rated in good condition on September 1. In Georgia, near~normal
temperatures and timely rains during August helped the crop. By September 1,
88 percent of the crop had been harvested, about one week behind normal.
Virginia growers reported a good quality crop. Rains during August in South
Carolina aided crop development with 83 percent of harvest complete. Harvest
in Florida neared completion by month’s end.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-9 NASS, USDA


Corn: Plant Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
surveys in 7 States during 1996. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific. counts
and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey
and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are
intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Plant population per acre,
Selected States, 1992-96 1/

Number of Plants

IL Sep : 23,200 23,400 23,300 24,000 24,350
Nov 3 23,000 23,300 23,200 23,650

IN Sep : 23,400 23,300 22,800 23,900 23,550
Nov : 23,200 23,200 22,850 24,000

IA Sep : 23,300 23,700 24,000 24,800 25,000
Nov 3 23,300 23,500 23,950 24,650

MI 2/ Sep Hy 21,600 22,800 22,200 23,500
Nov : 21,600 22,800 21,800 22,850

MN Sep : 24,700 25,000 26,100 26,400 26,500
Nov + 24,600 25,100 26,000 26,350

MO 2/ Sep : 18,900 19,300 19,600 20,400
Nov 3 18,800 19,300 19,650 20,400

NE Sep 3 22,000 22,600 21,900 22,600 22,750
Nov : 21,900 22,200 21,700 22,500

OH Sep : 23,500 23,200 22,800 23,400 23,100
Nov : 23,300 23,300 22,900 23,300

SD 2/ Sep : 17,600 17,400 19,100 19,900
Nov : 17,800 17,600 19,250 20,000

wi Sep : 23,200 23,500 24,100 24,600 24,800
Nov : 22,800 23,600 23,600 24,000

1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ No longer included in the objective yield program beginning with 1996.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-28 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

Crop and Unit

Corn for Grain
Sorghum for Grain
Barley
All Wheat
Durum
Other Spring
Rice 1/
Soybeans for Beans
Peanuts
All Cotton 1/
Upland 1/
Amer-Pima 1/
Cottonseed
Potatoes
Summer 2/ 3/
Fall 2/
Total 2/
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for
Sugar and Seed
Pecans

1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996
(Domestic Units)

Cwt 254
* 334
. 323
Lb 1,913

Ton : 19.8

120.
63.
58.
36.
33.
35.

5,957
35.8

2,384

661
653
1,052

rPORwWoON

250

2,150
19.8

31.4

Production

Yield per Acre and Production, United States,

7,373,876
460,373
359,102

2,185,539
102,280
535,948
173,871

2,151,834

3,461,475

17,899.8
17,532.2
367.6
6,848.7

17,931
403,009
443,606

1,268,494

28,026

30,796
268,000

8,694,628
733,687
387,852

2,249,362
119,652
634,994
168,784

2,299,675

3,346,900

18,577.1
18,001.1
576.0
7,101.4

18,876
1,595,624
26,061

27,626

8,803,928
763,973
394,202

2,295,690
113,980
686,994
171,494

2,269,505

3,362,650

17,900.1
17,326.1
574.0
6,846.4

19,095
1,580,549
26,399

27,276
244,700

1/ Yield in pounds.

2/ 1995 revised.

3/ August 1 estimate carried forward from the July 1

Crop Production
September 1996

forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on
October 11, 1996.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

Cc. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Dan Kerestes - Corn (202) 720-9526
Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Joel Moore - Barley, Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather, Oats (202) 720-7621
Barbara Rater - Peanuts, Rice, Tobacco (202) 720-7688
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Vince Matthews, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge ~ Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285
Howard Hill - Cherries, Berries, Prunes, Plums,

Cranberries, Grapes, Maple Syrup (202) 720-7235

Linda McMillan - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215

Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions (202) 720-2157
Linda Simpson - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas,

Mushrooms, Hops (202) 720-3578

Blair Smith ~ Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1996 B-16 NASS, USDA


Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using
corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 399 million bushels, ranging
from 10 million to 885 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times. This does not imply that the
September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts
10-year Record of

Differences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Corn for Grain 5 5

Sorghum for Grain 6 4

Barley 5 5

All Wheat 2 8
Durum 4 6
Other Spring 3 7

Rice 7 3

Soybeans for

Beans 6 4

5
1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1996 B-14 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

- 1,000 Acres -~ 1,000 Bushels --

AL 225 315 24.0 28.0 28.0 5,400 8,820
AR 3,400 3,600 25.5 30.0 30.0 86,700 108,000
DE 233 215 20.0 30.0 30.0 4,660 6,450
FL 1/ 28 33 26.0 30.0 30.0 728 990
GA 310 390 27.0 26.0 26.0 8,370 10,140
IL 9,700 9,850 38.5 38.0 37.0 373,450 364,450
IN 4,980 5,360 39.0 35.0 35.0 194,220 187,600
IA 9,260 9,450 43.0 45.0 44.0 398,180 415,800
KS 2,050 2,000 25.0 30.0 34.0 51,250 68,000
KY 1,150 1,180 36.0 36.0 36.0 41,400 42,480
LA 1,040 1,050 25.0 31.0 31.0 26,000 32,550
MD 510 480 23.0 33.0 33.0 11,730 15,840
MI 1,490 1,640 40.0 34.0 32.0 59,600 52,480
MN 5,800 5,900 40.0 38.0 36.0 232,000 212,400
MS 1,800 1,750 21.0 27.0 27.0 37,800 47,250
MO 4,500 4,050 29.0 34.0 35.0 130,500 141,750
NE 3,060 3,010 32.5 42.0 44.0 99,450 132,440
NJ 1/ 138 127 22.0 35.0 35.0 3,036 4,445
NC 1,070 1,200 25.0 31.0 31.0 26,750 37,200
ND 640 820 29.0 30.0 30.0 18,560 24,600
OH 4,030 4,490 38.0 35.0 32.0 153,140 143,680
OK 1/ 275 285 20.0 24.0 24.0 5,500 6,840
PA 1/ 315 285 30.0 44.0 44.0 9,450 12,540
sc 530 540 24.0 25.0 26.0 12,720 14,040
sD 2,500 2,650 30.0 32.0 32.0 75,000 84,800
TN 1,080 1,150 32.0 32.0 32.0 34,560 36,800
TX 240 270 25.0 26.0 29.0 6,000 7,830
VA 470 480 24.0 32.0 32.0 11,280 15,360
wi 800 870 43.0 41.0 39.0 34,400 33,930
us 61,624 63,440 34.9 36.2 35.8 2,151,834 2,269,505

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

U.S. Soybean Production

1987 - 1996
Billlon Bushels

.80

.60

2
2
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80

1.60

7 :

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

1.40 Lo L .

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-15 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production 1/

Pounds ---

578.0 556.0 409 600 639 492.0 740.0
364.0 324.0 1,046 1,230 1,200 793.0 810.0
1,110.0 990.0 635 824 742 1,468.0 1,530.0
1,165.0 995.0 953 1,327 1,134 2,312.0 2,350.0
109.0 100.0 472 672 672 107.2 140.0
1,490.0 1,375.0 625 698 698 1,941.0 2,000.0
2.6 1.7 185 311 311 1.0 1.1
1,075.0 940.0 614 766 705 1,375.0 1,380.0
1,420.0 1,030.0 622 792 764 1,841.0 1,640.0
453.0 405.0 544 640 699 513.0 590.0
56.0 54.0 609 667 667 71.0 75.0
800.0 735.0 479 679 679 798.0 1,040.0
315.0 240.0 187 340 340 123.0 170.0
342.0 265.0 528 743 743 376.0 410.0
660.0 520.0 527 600 600 724.0 650.0
5,750.0 4,100.0 372 427 427 4,460.0 3,650.0
106.0 102.0 620 706 706 137.0 150.0
15,795.6 12,732.7 533 679 653. 17,532.2 17,326.21
48.1 39.9 720 842 818 72.2 68.0
115.0 165.0 937 1,207 1,207 224.5 415.0
15.0 17.0 608 678 678 18.9 24.0
33.0 40.0 756 804 804 52.0 67.0
211.1 261.9 836 1,056 1,052 367.6 574.0
578.0 556.0 409 600 639 492.0 740.0
412.1 363.9 1,008 1,187 1,158 865.2 878.0
1,110.0 990.0 635 824 742 1,468.0 1,530.0
1,280.0 1,160.0 951 1,310 1,144 2,536.5 2,765.0
109.0 100.0 472 672 672 107.2 140.0
1,490.0 1,375.0 625 698 698 1,941.0 2,000.0
2.6 1.7 185 311 311 1.0 1.
1,075.0 940.0 614 766 705 1,375.0 1,380.0
1,420.0 1,030.0 622 792 764 1,841.0 1,640.0
453.0 405.0 544 640 699 513.0 590.0
71.0 71.0 608 669 669 89.9 99.0
800.0 735.0 479 679 679 798.0 1,040.0
315.0 240.0 187 340 340 123.0 170.0
342.0 265.0 528 743 743 376.0 410.0
660.0 520.0 527 600 600 724.0 650.0
5,783.0 4,140.0 375 431 431 4,512.0 3,717.0
106.0 102.0 620 706 706 137.0 150.0
16,006.7 12,994.6 537 686 661 17,899.8 17,900.1

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-1b net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA

Crop Production
September 1996 A-17


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996
(Domestic Units)

1,000 Acres

Corn : 71,245 79,555 64,995 73,269

Sorghum 3 9,454 13,284 8,278 12,004
Barley 3 6,689 7,134 6,277 6,761
All Wheat 3 69,177 75,624 60,971 63,118
Durum 2 3,436 3,565 3,356 3,456
Other Spring : 17,015 20,006 16,622 19,565
Rice : 3,121.0 2,910.0 3,093.0 2,879.0
Soybeans : 62,575 64,315 61,624 63,440
Peanuts 3 1,537.5 1,433.0 1,517.0 1,410.5
All Cotton : 16,931.4 14,243.0 16,006.7 12,994.6
Upland : 16,716.8 13,979.0 15,795.6 12,732.7
Amer-Pima 2 214.6 264.0 211.1 261.9
Potatoes :
Summer 2/ : 72.5 79.9 70.7 76.3
Fall 2/ H 1,224.1 1,261.2 1,205.2 1,244.6
Total 2/ : 1,398.2 1,446.6 1,372.1 1,423.6
Tobacco 3 663.1 735.2
Sugarbeets 3 1,444.6 1,384.1 1,417.1 1,334.0
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 932.3 869.0

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.
2/ 1995 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1995-96
(Domestic Units)

1,000 Acres

oats : 6,336 4,608 2,959 2,673

Winter Wheat : 48,726 52,053 40,993 40,097
Rye 3 1,612 1,502 378 367
Sunflower : 3,478 2,787 3,368 2,685
Flaxseed : 165 112 147 106
All Hay : 59,779 60,599
Alfalfa : 24,569 24,256
All Other : 35,210 36,343
Dry Edible Beans : 2,069.3 1,818.0 1,899.3 1,710.6
Potatoes z
Winter 3 13.3 13.6 11.9 13.5
Spring : 88.3 91.9 84.3 89.2
Sweetpotatoes : 87.4 89.4 83.6 86.2
Hops : 43.2 44.1
Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 0.2

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-3 NASS, USDA


Iowa, Ohio, and Arkansas are the lowest since 1993. In Illinois, the pod count
is the lowest since 1992. The forecasted pod count in Indiana is the lowest in
the past five years.

The average temperature for the eastern Corn Belt States during the month was
equal to or above average. In the western Corn Belt and Delta States, the
temperature fell below average. Precipitation was generally below normal in
Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, but was above normal in the other major producing
states. Soybeans were in fair to good condition in the major producing states.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.36 billion pounds, up slightly from the
August 1 forecast but down 3 percent from 1995. Production is down in
Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and South Carolina but New
Mexico, Texas, and Virginia are up from a year ago. Harvested area, estimated
at 1.41 million acres, is down fractionally from August 1 and 7 percent below
last year. Georgia is the only state to adjust its acreage for harvest from the
August report, dropping their expectations by 5,000 acres to 533,000 acres for
harvest. The U.S. peanut yield is expected to average 2,384 pounds per
harvested acre, up 20 pounds from last month and up 102 pounds from 1995.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.01 billion pounds, down fractionally from last
month and 5 percent below the 1995 crop. Yield for the 4-State area is expected
to average 2,423 pounds per acre, 54 pounds above last year. Yield prospects in
Alabama are unchanged from August 1 and 180 pounds below a year ago. Early
harvest is underway and the crop was in mostly good condition on September 1.
The Georgia crop outlook held steady compared with a month ago. Beneficial
rains which fell during August are expected to aid crop development, especially
in the later varieties. Temperatures during the month were near normal, unlike
last year’s extreme heat. Tomato spotted wilt virus remains a concern to many
producers. By late-August, first digging and combining were off to slow start
with three percent of the acreage dug and 1 percent combined. Florida growers
expect a good crop. Harvest started in late-August with 5 percent of the crop
harvested by September 1.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 553 million pounds, unchanged
from last month and virtually unchanged from last year's crop. Yield per
harvested acre in the region, at 2,738 pounds, is 360 pounds per acre above last
year's final average. Excessive moisture reduced crop potential in the
Virginia-North Carolina region. Producers in the region continued to apply
fungicides. Despite a cool, damp growing season, 61 percent of Virginia's crop
was rated in good condition on September 1. At month's end, North Carolina
growers rated the crop as 1 percent poor, 29 percent fair, 63 percent good, and
7 percent excellent.

The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected
to total 798 million pounds, up 4 percent from last month and 2 percent above
1995, Yields in the tri-state area are expected to average 2,109 pounds per
acre, 72 pounds above last month and 86 pounds above last year. New Mexico
producers expected an above average crop. Frequent rains have prompted some
disease problems. Yield prospects in Oklahoma remained unchanged from a month
ago as the crop continues to make good progress. Texas growers raised their
yield expectation by 100 pounds per acre from last month, rating their crop in
fair to mostly good condition. Beneficial rains during August improved crop
prospects, especially in Central and South Central Texas.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 12.7 million acres, is unchanged
from last month, but down 19 percent from last year. American-Pima

harvested acreage is also unchanged from August, at 261,900 acres, but up

24 percent from 1995.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-7 NASS, USDA


Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1995-96

-- 1,000 Pounds

3,785 3,790 2,380 2,635 3,415 2,925
3,770 3,835 2,335 2,805 3,505 2,940

Nuts: Utilized Production by Crop and State,
1994-95 and Forecasted September 1, 1996 1/

Crop and State

Tons (In-shell Basis)

Hazelnuts :
OR : 21,000 38,800 19,900
WA ? 100 200 100
Total : 21,100 39,000 20,000
Walnuts :
cA : 232,000 234,000 220,000

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-26 NASS, USDA


All cotton: Production is forecast at 17.9 million bales, down 4 percent from
last month and unchanged from 1995. Yield is indicated at

661 pounds per acre, up 124 pounds from last year. High temperatures in

California caused boll shedding and production was decreased 400,000 bales from

August. Louisiana‘s expected output dropped 120,000 bales from last month, as

early dry conditions, increased insect pressure, and some boll rot reduced yield

potential. Similar conditions caused Arkansas’ forecast to be lowered

170,000 bales. Texas’ production remains unchanged from one month earlier.

All wheat: The 1996 production is forecast at 2.30 billion bushels, up

2 percent from last month and 5 percent above the 1995 crop. The
U.S. yield is placed at 36.4 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushels from the last
forecast.

Other spring wheat: Production is forecast at 687 million bushels, up 8 percent

from last month and 28 percent from 1995. This production
level is second only to the 1992 record of 758 million bushels. The U.S. yield
is expected to average 35.1 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels from a month ago.
Grain area is unchanged from last month. Lower Idaho yield prospects caused the
drop in White Spring production. Hard Red Spring production is up from last
month because better than expected yields in Minnesota and the Dakotas more than
covered Montana’s decline.

Durum wheat: Production is forecast at 114 million bushels, down 5 percent from
last month but still up 11 percent from 1995. The U.S. yield is
placed at 33.0 bushels per acre, down 1.6 bushels from the last forecast. Area
for grain remains at 3.36 million acres. Yield increases in Minnesota and South
Dakota were more than offset by a 2 bushel drop in the North Dakota yield
forecast. The North Dakota decline is largely due to head scab related problems.

California Navel orange production for 1996-97 is forecast at 37.0 million
boxes, down 3 percent from last season’s production of 38.0 million boxes. This
initial forecast of the 1996-97 season is based on an objective measurement
survey conducted in the California Central valley. The crop is maturing well
with fruit set down significantly from last year but much larger individual
fruit size.

This report was approved on September 11, 1996, by the Secretary of Agriculture
and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics
Board.

law. fe hhh

Y skcretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Dan Glickman Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1996 A-2 NASS, USDA


August Weather Summary: Crop development accelerated across the Midwest in
response to consistent warmth (near normal
temperatures). Much drier weather prevailed, however, across the eastern half
of the Corn Belt, with many locations receiving less than one-half of normal
rainfall. Farther south, a meandering frontal boundary sparked cloudy, showery
weather across the South. Along the tail of the front, tropical moisture
pooled, significantly easing Texas' 11-month drought. In contrast, dry
conditions persisted across the West, where heat, wind, and lightning strikes
continued to fuel the worst wildfire season since 1969 (by month's end).

Monthly rainfall averaged less than 50 percent (%) of normal in many areas from
the upper and middle Mississippi Valley eastward into New England. Paducah, KY
recorded only 0.11 inches during the month, their driest August on record. In
Ohio, Dayton's total of 0.03 inches represented their lowest total for any
month, formerly set in March 1910 (0.05 inches). Only 0.06 inches fell during
the month in Concord, NH.

In contrast, monthly totals were more than 200% of normal across a broad area of
the central and southern Plains. In southern Texas, August rainfall accounted
for 62% of the year-to-date total in Corpus Christi and 80% in Brownsville.
Corpus Christi's total of 8.57 inches represented their third-highest August
total, behind 1980 (14.79 inches) and 1953 (12.64 inches). Ironically, heavy
August rains in 1980 and 1953 also tempered long stretches of hot, dry weather
across southern Texas. Elsewhere in Texas, near-record August rainfall occurred
in locations such as Austin (8.82 inches; second-wettest August) and Del Rio
(4.76 inches; fifth wettest). Much of Texas' rain fell late in the month, as
moisture associated with Hurricane Dolly--which made landfall in northeastern
Mexico on August 23--settled over the region.

Near-record August rainfall occurred as far north as Kansas, where Dodge City's
total of 7.34 inches was second only to a 7.44-inch total in 1977. In addition,
Dodge City's monthly temperature averaged 4 degrees F below normal. Highs
reached or exceeded 90 degrees F on only 4 days in Goodland, KS, tying their
August record set in 1992 and 1923. Farther east, highs reached the 90-degree
plateau only twice in Kansas City, MO and an August-record once in Charleston,
sc.

Meanwhile, monthly temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees F above normal from the
Southwest to the northern High Plains. In downtown Sacramento, CA, triple-digit
heat prevailed from August 8-16, tying their longest such streak on record, set
in July 1984; June 1981, and August 1966. Sacramento also weathered their
hottest August on record (80.3 degrees F}. On August 13, the heat peaked at
August-record proportions in Bullfrog, UT (110 degrees F) and Paso Robles, CA
(113 degrees F).

Cool, damp conditions prevailed in many parts of Alaska. A total of 7.91 inches
of rain pelted Juneau, their seventh-wettest August. Fairbanks recorded their
coolest August since 1969, while rainfall totaled 2.83 inches, 144% of normal.
On August 28, a low of 28 degrees F ended Fairbanks' growing season at 100 days,
nearly 2 weeks shorter than normal. In contrast, hot weather blanketed Hawaii.
Honolulu notched a monthly record high of 93 degrees F on August 25, while Hilo
tallied nine daily-record highs during the month.

General Crop Commente: Early August brought warmer weather over most of the
Corn Belt that accelerated row-crop development, but not
enough to reach normal levels. Heavy rains in the western Corn Belt caused
localized flooding early in the month, but the much-needed moisture prevented a
decline in row-crop conditions. Warmer weather over the Great Lakes region
spurred crop development but increased plant requirements for soil moisture.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-3 NASS, USDA


Heavy drop was reported as a result of winter’s low chilling hours and the rain
received during May. Temperatures were very high from late July through
mid-August, and there have been reports of heavy sunburn damage. Objective
measurement samples do not show sunburn damage to be abnormal, but some damage
may have occurred after the samples were taken.

Pecans: The September 1 forecast for pecan production is 245 million pounds

{in-shell basis), down 9 percent from last year’s crop of 268 million
pounds. Improved varieties are forecast at 190 million pounds, 78 percent of
the total. Native varieties decreased 29 percent from last year to 54.3 million
pounds. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina
expect higher production this year, while Arkansas, California, Kansas, New
Mexico. North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas expect smaller crops.

Georgia's production is set at 100 million pounds, one-third larger than 1995.
Cooler than normal temperatures have aided crop development. Lack of moisture
in non-irrigated groves has some growers concerned about nut size. The Texas
forecast is 40.0 million pounds, 47 percent below last year. Extreme drought
conditions during spring and summer have affected the whole state.
Consequently, growers may lose some trees. Insect problems have also limited
this year's crop. New Mexico expects 30.0 million pounds, 33 percent less than
the previous year’s record high crop. Nut set was only average following last
year’s production. The crop has remained in mostly good to excellent condition
throughout the summer with an adequate supply of irrigation water and minimal
insect problems.

Alabama forecasts 15.0 million pounds of pecans, up 50 percent from the

10.0 million pounds produced last year. Despite hurricane damage last season
and dry conditions in May and June, the crop is in good condition. Nut
casebearer problems reduced crop potential in some orchards, but insect pressure
has been light overall. Louisiana’s pecan crop is also expected to reach

15.0 million pounds, 15 percent above the previous year. Disease pressures have
been low. Drought conditions existed in some areas of southwest Louisiana and
some growers reported nuts dropping prematurely. Production in Arkansas and
Mississippi continues to be affected by the damaging ice storms of 1994.
Hurricane damage from last year reduced North Carolina’s expectations for 1996.
Late freezes this spring hurt nut set in some South Carolina groves, while other
growers reported limb breakage caused by a heavy load of pecans.

Production in Oklahoma is forecast at 10.0 million pounds, 47 percent lower than
last year. Dry weather and high winds during pollination caused a light nut
set. Some areas reported rainy weather during pollination. All areas reported
very heavy web worm infestations. Very dry conditions have taken a toll on the
Kansas pecan crop this year with production expected at 400,000 pounds,

20 percent below last year’s total. The Arizona pecan forecast for 1996 is
18.0 million pounds. During spring and early summer, temperatures were ideal
for growth, and fruit and leaf development. Although severe drought conditions
existed, water was available for the crop. California pecans are in a down year
of the alternate bearing cycle with most growers reporting a decrease in
production from last year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 B-12 NASS, USDA


The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting spring wheat
objective yield surveys in 3 States during 1996;

All Spring Wheat:

Head Population

North Dakota also does

Durum wheat. Randomly selected plots in wheat fields are visited from August
Data in this
table are derived actual field counts and are not official estimates of the

through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements.

Agricultural Statistics Board.

All Spring Wheat:
Selected States,

Heads per Square Foot,
1992-96 1/ 2/

Other Spring:

MN Sep
Final

MT Sep
Final

ND Sep
Final

sD Sep 3/
Final

Durum:

41.9
42.7

36.6
36.6

25.2

36.0

1/ Based on the number of heads counted in plots selected for the objective

yield survey.

2/ Final head counts will be published in January.
3/ No longer included in the objective yield program beginning with 1996.

Crop Production
September 1996

A-29

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS,

USDA


Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

1995 ; 1996

1,000 Acres
AZ 1/ 99 159

1,000 Bushels

8,514 15,105

CA 1/ : 68 138 6,800 13,800

MN : 12 10 360 430
265 225 950

5,625
78,300
720

113,980

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1, 1996

Area Harvested : Yield Production

1996

Bushels -

70.0 70.0 70.0
80.0 74.0 70.0
32.0 34.0 43 0
35.0 28.0 27.0
75.0 70.0 70.0
27.0 30.0 33.0
52.0 54.0 54.0
28.0 31.0 35.0
75.0 65.0 65.0
46.0 46.0 46.0
30.0 35.0 35.0
42.0 36.0 36.0
32.2 32.5 35.1

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1994-1995
and Forecasted September 1, 1996 1/

Winter 2/ Spring 2/

1,000 Bushels

161 434,208 256,574 515,315 96,747 46,976 2,32
492 449,616 273,203 475,328 102,280 60,620 2,185,539
293 426,906 301,517 625,031 113,980 61,963 2,29

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on the latest varietal acreage survey data
available. The previous end-of-season class percentages are used through the
forecast season, unless otherwise noted.

2/ Based on Washington's 1996 Wheat Variety survey, the percent of White Wheat
has shifted from 95 percent White Winter in 1995 to 90 percent. White
Spring changed from 75 percent to 67 percent.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1996 A-13 NASS, USDA


Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted September 1,

1996 1/

--- 1,000 Pounds -

AL 212.0 209.0 2,280
FL 81.0 78.0 2,390
GA 592.0 533.0 2,390
NM 20.0 19.5 2,150
NC 144.0 126.0 2,410
OK 98.0 84.0 2,060
sc 11.0 10.0 2,800
TX 270.0 275.0 2,000
VA 89.0 76.0 2,325
5

2,400

1,900
2,800

2,100 483,360
2,400 193,590
2,550 1,414,880
2,400 43,000
2,700 347,040
2,400 201,880
2,600 30,800
2,000 540,000
2,800 206,925
2,384 3,461,475

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Cottonseed: Production,

and Forecasted September 1,

United States, 1994-95
1996

438,900
187,200
1,359,150
46,800
340,200
201,600
26,000
550,000
212,800

3,362,650

1,000 Tons
6,848.7

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio,

Crop Production
September 1996

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA