Keep Up with Changing Farm Prospects.

Attend USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum ’96 for
the latest assessment of farm and commodity pros-
pects. Policy makers and leading analysts will discuss
the impact of tight commodity supplies and new farm
policies. Agriculture officials from key trading nations
have been invited to discuss trade issues.

Act Now To Attend. For registration information call
(202) 401-9139 or fax (202) 401-7304. For program
details call (202) 720-3050, or call (202) 219-0296 from
your fax machine and request document 66666.

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a printed proceedings and speeches on Internet will be
available right after the Forum. Call (202) 720-3050
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@ A gricultural

@2@ Outlook
SS Forum’96

February 21 and 22, 1996
Washington, D.C.

Presented by the
U.S. Department of Agriculture



citrus area remained dry, with harvest very active for the Christmas market.
Later in the month, rain from the southern to the central Great Plains brought
relief to dry wheat fields.

A winter storm from the South to the Northeast at mid-month brought fieldwork to
a halt. Snowfall over the Midwest and Northeast preceded sub-zero temperatures
and the snow cover protected most of the winter wheat from the low temperatures.
The snow cover was patchy across the Northern Plains. The snow brought much
needed moisture to small grain fields in the central States. Rain in the
southern Great Plains provided some relief to parched wheat fields. In Florida,
brief durations of below freezing temperatures did negligible damage to citrus
trees and fruit. Freezing weather burned some of Florida's vegetable crops, but
the damage was not significant. Temperatures did not stay below the danger
point long enough to damage fruit. Dry weather in the Pacific Northwest reduced
standing water in low lying fields. In the southern Great Plains and Delta
States, some early wheat fields had minor insect problems.

Toward the end of December, heavy rainfall in Florida over the New Year's
weekend left fields muddy and slowed central Florida’s vegetable harvest. In
southwestern Florida, some vegetables were damaged from freezing weather.
Harvest activity for Florida's oranges for processing was active. Storms at
week’s end in the Pacific Northwest brought additional moisture to already
Saturated fields. Rains hampered fieldwork in California, but boosted small
grain growth. Dryland small grain fields in the Texas High Plains benefited
from late month snowfall, but additional moisture was needed. Dry conditions
and cool weather slowed small grain growth in central Texas.

Cotton: Upland cotton planted acreage was estimated at 16.7 million acres,

up 23 percent from 1994. Harvested acreage, at 15.8 million acres,
was 20 percent greater than last year. Producers planted 214,600 acres of
American-Pima cotton in 1995, up 27 percent from 1994 with harvested acreage at
211,100 acres, a 27 percent increase from last year.

In Texas, harvest was 97 percent complete by late December, slightly ahead of
last year's pace, as open weather prevailed. Producers planted

6.40 million acres, up 17 percent from 1994 while harvested acreage of

5.75 million was up 12 percent. Plantings were delayed because of dry
conditions, but in early June, heavy rains and hail caused replanting. A cool
September with the heaviest rains in 60 years lowered potential yields from
earlier months.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) had
a dry season during 1995. Plantings were behind normal early in the season due
to excessive rainfall. In June, the pace equaled the average. Boll counts and
weights were among the lowest of the past 10 years, resulting in a low
yielding crop. Planted acreage was up 19 percent from 1994 and harvested
acreage was up 16 percent.

Arizona planted and harvested acres increased by 17 percent from 1994.
California producers increased acreage 6 percent for both planted and harvested
acreage. Early seagon rains and cool temperatures in both States delayed
plantings and also caused lower yields. Boll numbers and weights were much less
than anticipated early in the season.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina), cotton acreage continued to increase, as plantings of the 1995 crop
in this region were 58 percent above 1994, and harvested acreage was

57 percent greater. Hot, dry conditions caused poor crop development, and
yields in the region averaged 273 pounds less than previous year’s yields.
Excessive rains during the fall in the Carolina’s delayed harvest and caused
high boll loss.

Bmerican-Pima production is forecast at 361,000 bales, up 7 percent from 1994
and up 4,000 bales from the December forecast. Yields, at an average of

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 14 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1994 and Forecasted January 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

Hectares
All cotton 5,552,390 6,852,370 5,391,400 6, 469, 330
Upland : 5,484,200 6,765,530 5,324,060 6,383,900
Amer-Pima : 68,190 86,850 67,340 85,430

Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1994 and Forecasted January 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

All cotton : 0.79 0.60 4,280,900 3,970,360 3,912,770
Upland : 0.79 0.60 4,207,370 3,892,630 3,834,170
Amer-Pima : 1.09 0.92 73,530 77,730 78,600

Cottonseed : 6,898,140 6, 369,070 6,281,800

Citrus Fruits 1/ : 1994-95 1995-96 1995-96
Oranges 10,537,860 10,651,260 10,811,830
Grapefruit 2,641,720 2,537, 400 2,506,550
Lemons 830,980 948,010 930,770

1/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 5 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on

February 9, 1996.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

c. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice (202) 720-9526
Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Tobacco, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068
Charles Van Lahr ~ Barley, Corn, Oats, (202) 720-7369
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Stephen Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285
Roger Latham - Cotton, Hay (202) 720-5944
Linda McMillan - Nuts, Grapes (202) 720-4215
Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-2157
Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Barbara Soltes - Noncitrus Fruits, Peanuts (202) 720-7688
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1996 18

NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted January 1, 1996 1/

Utilized Production
Ton Equivalent

Boxes

Crop and State
1995-96

- 1,000 Boxes 2/ 1,000 Tons - ~
Oranges H
Early Mid & :
Navel 3/ :
AZ 3 700 400 650 26 15 24
cA : 36,600 35,000 40,000 1,372 1,313 1,500
FL : 107,300 119,700 126,000 4,829 5,387 5,670
TX : 480 950 900 21 40 38
us : 145,080 156,050 167,550 6,248 6,755 7,232
Valencia :
BZ 3 1,200 650 800 4s 24 30
cA : 27,000 26,000 28,000 1,013 976 1,050
FL > 67,100 85,700 80,000 3,020 3,857 3,600
TX : 70 105 150 3 4 6
us : 95,370 112,455 108,950 4,081 4,861 4,686
ALL 3
AZ : 1,900 1,050 1,450 71 39 54
CA : 63,600 61,000 68,000 2,385 2,289 2,550
FL : 174,400 205, 400 206,000 7,849 9,244 9,270
TX : 550 1,055 1,050 24 44 44
US 2: 240,450 268,505 276,500 10, 329 11,616 11,918
Temples :
FL : 2,250 2,550 2,200 101 114 99
Grapefruit :
White Seedless :
FL : 24,500 25,700 24,000 1,042 1,092 1,020
Colored Seedless
FL : 25,500 28,700 29,000 1,084 1,220 1,233
Other :
FL : 1,050 1,300 1,000 4s 55 43
All :
AZ 2 1,750 1,400 1,200 59 47 40
CA :
Desert : 3,400 3,300 114 111
Other Areas 3 5,900 6,000 197 201
Total 4/ : 9,300 9,300 7,500 311 312 251
FL > $1,050 55,700 54,000 2,171 2,367 2,296
TX 3 3,000 4,650 4,400 120 186 176
us : 65,100 71,050 67,100 2,661 2,912 2,763
Tangerines z
AZ : 1,000 650 750 37 25 28
cA : 2,300 2,200 2,400 86 82 90
FL : 4,100 3,550 4,300 195 168 204
us 7,400 6,400 7,450 318 275 322
Lemons
AZ 5,200 3,600 5,000 197 137 190
CA > 20,700 20,500 22,000 787 7719 836
us : 25,900 24,100 27,000 984 916 1,026
Tangelos :
FL 3,350 3,150 2,700 150 142 122
K-Early Citrus
FL : 210 120 150 9 5 7
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1996 10 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State,
and United states, 1993-95

Upland :
AL : 524 766 382 469.0 726.0 460.0
AZ 3 1,204 1,203 1,042 790.0 782.0 790.0
AR : 541 877 637 1,094.0 1,772.0 1,460.0
CA 2 1,340 1,191 948 2,918.0 2,717.0 2,300.0
FL : 696 735 440 77.6 104.1 100.0
GA : 586 843 635 733.0 1,537.0 1,970.0
KS : 206 480 206 0.6 1.2 1.2
LA : 606 815 614 1,105.0 1,512.0 1,375.0
MS 3 572 806 624 1,550.0 2,132.0 1,845.0
MO : 539 856 559 376.0 615.0 525.0
NM : 769 720 677 78.0 75.0 79.0
NC 3 535 820 504 429.0 829.0 830.0
OK : 370 349 190 270.0 247.0 125.0
sc : 495 846 547 204.0 393.0 390.0
TN 3 425 726 531 545.0 885.0 730.0
TX : 484 458 376 5,095.0 4,915.0 4,500.0
VA : 634 944 583 30.1 82.0 130.0
US 3 601 705 536 15, 764.3 19,324.3 17,610.2

Amer-Pima :
AZ 3 734 806 738 87.0 80.4 74.0
CA : 1,132 1,098 897 214.6 184.8 215.0
NM z 816 875 672 18.7 19.5 21.0
TX 3 784 942 742 49.0 53.0 51.0
US : 938 974 821 369.3 337.7 361.0

All 2
AL 3 524 766 382 469.0 726.0 460.0
AZ : 1,132 1,150 1,006 877.0 862.4 864.0
AR 3 $41 877 637 1,094.0 1,772.0 1,460.0
cA : 1,324 1,185 943 3,132.6 2,901.8 2,515.0
FL 3 696 735 440 717.6 104.1 100.0
GA 3 586 843 635 733.0 1,537.0 1,970.0
KS : 206 480 206 0.6 1.2 1.2
LA : 606 815 614 1,105.0 1,512.0 1,375.0
MS : 572 806 624 1,550.0 2,132.0 1,845.0
MO 3 539 856 559 376.0 615.0 525.0
NM 3 777 747 676 96.7 94.5 100.0
NC : 535 820 504 429.0 829.0 830.0
OK H 370 349 190 270.0 247.0 125.0
sc : 495 846 547 204.0 393.0 390.0
TN 3 425 726 531 545.0 885.0 730.0
TX : 486 461 378 5,144.0 4,968.0 4,551.0
VA 3 634 944 583 30.1 82.0 130.0
us 606 708 540 16,133.6 19,662.0 17,971.2

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/  480-Lb. net weight bales.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 7 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested by Type, State,
and United States, 1993-95

Area Planted Area Harvested

1,000 Acres

Upland
AL 3 443.0 463.0 5390.0 430.0 455.0 578.0
AZ : 316.0 313.0 365.0 315.0 312.0 364.0
AR : 990.0 980.0 1,170.0 970.0 970.0 1,100.0
cA > 1,050.0 1,100.0 1,170.0 1,045.0 1,095.0 1,165.0
FL : 54.0 69.0 110.0 $3.5 68.0 109.0
GA 2 615.0 885.0 1,500.0 600.0 875.0 1,490.0
KS : 1.6 1.4 3.8 1.4 1.2 2.8
LA : 890.0 900.0 1,085.0 875.0 890.0 1,075.0
MS : 1,330.0 1,280.0 1,460.0 1,300.0 1,270.0 1,420.0
MO z 345.0 352.0 461.0 335.0 345.0 451.0
NM : 53.5 55.0 61.0 48.7 50.0 56.0
NC i 390.0 486.0 810.0 385.0 * 485.0 790.0
OK : 370.0 360.0 380.0 350.0 340.0 315.0
sc 2 202.0 225.0 345.0 198.0 223.0 342.0
TN : 625.0 590.0 700.0 615.0 $85.0 660.0
TX : 5,550.0 5,450.0 6,400.0 5,050.0 5,150.0 5,750.0
VA 23.2 42.2 107.0 22.8 41.7 107.0
us 13,248.3 13,551.6 16,717.8 12,594.4 13,155.9 15,774.8
Amer-Pima
AZ 57.0 48.0 48.6 56.9 47.9 48.1
CA 91.0 81.0 115.0 91.0 80.8 115.0
NM % 11.0 11.0 15.0 11.0 10.7 15.0
TX : 31.0 28.5 36.0 30.0 27.0 33.0
US : 190.0 168.5 214.6 188.9 166.4 211.1
All ?
443.0 463.0 590.0 430.0 455.0 578.0
373.0 361.0 413.6 371.9 359.9 412.1
990.0 980.0 1,170.0 970.0 970.0 1,100.0
1,141.0 1,181.0 1,285.0 1,136.0 1,175.8 1,280.0
54.0 69.0 110.0 53.5 68.0 109.0
615.0 885.0 1,500.0 600.0 875.0 1,490.0
1.6 1.4 3.8 1.4 1.2 2.8
890.0 300.0 1,085.0 875.0 890.0 1,075.0
1,330.0 1,280.0 1,460.0 1,300.0 1,270.0 1,420.0
345.0 352.0 461.0 335.0 345.0 451.0
64.5 66.0 76.0 59.7 60.7 71.0
390.0 486.0 810.0 385.0 485.0 790.0
370.0 360.0 380.0 350.0 340.0 315.0
202.0 225.0 345.0 198.0 223.0 342.0
625.0 590.0 700.0 * 615.0 585.0 660.0
5,581.0 5,478.5 6,436.0 5,080.0 5,177.0 5,783.0
23.2 42.2 107.0 22.8 43.7 107.0

13, 438.3 13,720.1 16,932.4 12,783.3 13, 322.3 15,985.9

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 6 NASS, USDA


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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 19 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production
by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1994-96

Area

Seasonal
Group
and 3

Yield H Production

Planted Harvested

1,000 Cwt
Winter :
CA 7 5.0 5.7 5.0 5.7 260 250 968 1,300 1,425
FL : 8.3 7.9 6.9 7.8 170 180 1,404 1,173 1,404
Total : 13.3 13.6 11.9 13.5 208 210 2,372 2,473 2,829
Spring 1/ :
AL 2 2.6 2.5 160 438 400
AZ > 6.5 6.5 270 1,670 1,755
cA 3 18.0 17.8 350 7,790 6,230
FL 36.0 218 8,588 7,830
Hastings 27.0 220 6,380 5,940
Other FL 9.0 210 2,208 1,890
NC 217.5 16.5 185 3,060 3,053
TX 2 5.2 5.0 185 1,100 925
Total 88.3 84.3 240 22,646 20,193

1/ Revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1994-95

Total in Crop

Month Harvested

Nov 3 3,190 3,760 1,915 2,340 4,940 3,715
Dec : 3,590 3,785 2,250 2,415 5,000 3,675
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1996 9 NASS, USDA


NE) National

Crop Qs
. Service

Production United States

Department of
Agriculture

Washington,

Released January 16, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on “Crop Production” call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 8:00 a.m.
to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics,
information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information
Botline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV. Forecasts refer to

January 1, 1996. Index and report features are located at the end of this
report.

Cotton Production Down 9 Percent From Last Year
Record Orange Production

All cotton production is forecast at 18.0 million bales, down 1 percent from
last month and 9 percent below 1994's record output. This year’s crop remains
the fourth largest on record. The Texas crop was reduced 50,000 bales from
December as yields were affected by insects and cold weather, but eastern States
accounted for the majority of the decrease, Unfavorable weather in the
Carolina's during harvest reduced yields.

All orange production, expected to be the largest crop on record, is forecast at
11.9 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and 3 percent above
last season. This forecast does not reflect effects of freezing weather in
Florida after January 1. Florida's forecast is 206 million boxes (9.27 million
tons), 1 percent higher than the December forecast and slightly above last
season. Early and mid-season varieties are expected to produce a record high
126 million boxes (5.67 million tons), an increase of 2 percent over the
previous forecast and 5 percent above last year. The Valencia forecast is 80.0
million boxes (3.60 million tons), unchanged from December but down 7 percent
from a year ago. California's all orange production forecast, at 68.0 million
boxes (2.55 million tons), is 3 percent above the October forecast and 11
percent more than last season. The Navel orange forecast, at 40.0 million boxes
(1.50 million tons), is up 5 percent from October and 14 percent from last year.
The California Valencia forecast is, 28.0 million boxes (1.05 million tons),
equal to October but 8 percent more than last year.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1995-96 season is
forecast at 1.47 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down from 1.50 gallons
per box in December. Initial projections for the early and mid-season varieties
are 1.42 gallons per box, down from last year’s 1.44 gallons per box. The
Valencia crop is expected to yield 1.55 gallons per box, down from 1.58 gallons
per box a year ago. The final 1994-95 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.50
gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast projects the final yield as
reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association.

Cr Pr 2-2 (1-96)


Hay: Stocks on Farms, May 1 and December 1, by State
and United States, 1994-95

State
1995 1/ 1994 1/

3 1,000 Tons

AL : 274 276 1,537 1,270
AZ 3 25 27 133 265
AR : 430 426 2,055 1,910
CA : 152 327 1,642 2,250
co 3 294 447 2,030 2,390
cT 3 10 32 105 78
DE : 8 10 12 9
FL : 719 132 490 397
GA : 114 371 1,170 1,050
ID : 678 222 2,263 2,794
IL : 616 540 1,397 1,979
IN : 205 148 1,097 1,584
IA : 720 751 4,274 4,079
KS 2 1,093 7196 5,080 4,590
KY : 600 648 5,292 4,806
LA 42 97 512 513
ME 3 36 61 243 272
MD : 33 20 347 265
MA : 17 28 138 115
MI : 753 1,074 3,020 3,166
MN 3 716 753 4,895 4,374
MS : 173 206 1,688 1,368
MO : 1,466 1,016 5,755 6,000
MT H 1,153 772 3,950 4,931
NE : 1,391 1,112 5,413 4,813
NV 3 166 42 630 750
NH : 17 26 90 82
NJ : 7 60 205 131
NM 3 90 50 525 600
NY 2 361 594 2,377 2,069
NC 3 36 131 , 807 900
ND : 1,160 857 4,285 5,044
OH : 562 307 2,410 2,421
OK : 750 700 3,500 3,600
OR : 521 85 1,761 2,310
PA : 653 724 2,717 2,513
RI : 2 3 9 6
sc : 44 130 332 396
sD : 2,293 1,759 7,477 8,960
TIN 3 aly 724 3,340 3,136
TX : 826 1,606 7,610 7,322
UT 2 323 245 1,452 1,481
vt 3 137 136 389 391
VA 7 374 445 2,108 2,185
WA : 312 139 1,198 1,410
wy 2 95 100 955 855
wi 3 1,377 1,441 5,000 4,900
wy : 495 182 1,581 2,817
us 22,096 20,775 105,296 109,547
1/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1996 12 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA Desert &
AZ-64, in 1991-92 and 1992-93, 67-starting in January 1993-94, CA Other-67,
FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;
tangerines-CA & AZ-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ California Desert and Other Areas Grapefruit forecasts combined to All
Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1996 11 NASS, USDA


Production by State and United States, 1993-1995

: 1,000 Tons
AL 175.0 271.0 170.0
AZ 338.0 324.0 330.0
AR 455.0 712.0 586.0
CA 1,142.0 1,063.0 922.0
FL 27.0 33.0- 35.0
GA 258.0 516.0 678.0
KS 2 “5 “5
LA 408.0 549.0 506.0
MS 631.0 842.0 734.0
MO 152.0 238.0 209.0
NM 41.0 36.4 39.0
NC 153.0 295.0 298.0
oK 114.0 101.0 51.0
sc 75.0 134.0 138.0
TN 216.0 348.0 289.0
TX 2,147.0 2,111.0 1,892.0
VA 11.0 30.0 47.0
us 7,603.9

1/ Estimates based on 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 8 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production,
United States, 1995-96 (Metric Units)

Winter Potatoes

Winter Potatoes

Crop Summary: Hay Stocks on Farms, United States, 1994-95
(Metric Unit)

Metric Tons

May 1 20,045,150 18,846,760
December 1 95,522,920 99,379,370
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1996 4 NASS, USDA


821 pounds per acre, declined 153 pounds from last year resulting from
unfavorable weather early in the season, mainly in California. Many California
growers picked fields two and three times.

All cotton ginnings totaled 17,002,100 running bales prior to January 1,
compared with 18,438,400 running bales ginned to the same date last year and
15,320,650 running bales in 1993.

Winter Potatoes: Production of winter potatoes in 1996 is forecast at

2.83 million cwt. This level is up 14 percent from 1995
and 19 percent above 1994. Area for harvest is estimated at 13,500 acres, up 13
percent from a year ago and 10 percent above two years ago. The average yield
is projected at 210 cwt per 2 cwt higher than last year.

Planting in Florida is nearly completed in the winter areas and crop progress is
satisfactory. Harvest of early fields should be under way by the end of
January. Acreage for harvest is up 13 percent from a year ago and farmers
expect yields to climb 10 cwt per acre. A 10 percent larger California winter
potato crop is forecast as acreage gained 14 percent over a year earlier. The
average yield is expected to be lower. Planting is finished and crop
development is progressing normally.

Spring Potatoes, 1995 Revised: Production of spring potatoes was finalized

at 20.2 million cwt in 1995, down 11 percent
from a year earlier but 3 percent above 1993. Harvested area was estimated at
84,300 acres, down 7 percent while the average yield of 240 cwt per acre dropped
11 cwt. The final spring crop tally is 10 percent below the forecast on May 1,
with larger producing States finding fewer potatoes than earlier anticipated.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is 3.68 million pounds for December,
1 percent lower than November and 27 percent lower than a year ago.

Weather conditions during December were variable with sunshine interspersed with
periods of showers. Temperatures were unseasonably warm for much of the month.
Papaya ringspot virus continued to take a heavy toll in some orchards.

Area devoted to papaya production is estimated at 3,785 acres, 1 percent more
than November and 5 percent more than last December. Harvested area, totaling
2,415 acres, was 3 percent higher than last month and 7 percent higher than a
year ago.

Grapefruit: The January 1 forecast of the 1995~96 U.S. grapefruit crop is

2.76 million tons, down 1 percent from last month and down
5 percent from last season. Production of all three types of Florida grapefruit
remained unchanged from December at 54.0 million boxes (2.30 million tons), down
3 percent from last season. Average fruit size was at near record levels and
fruit quality remained good. The Florida white seedless grapefruit forecast is
24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), a decrease of 7 percent from the 1994-95
crop. The colored seedless forecast is 29.0 million boxes (1.23 million tons),
an increase of 1 percent from a year ago. The seedy grapefruit crop is expected
to be 1.00 million boxes (43,000 tons), 23 percent fewer than last year. Almost
12.1 million boxes of all seedless grapefruit were picked through the end of
December.

California's crop is forecast at 7.50 million boxes (251,000 tons),

12 percent below October and 19 percent below last season. Poor weather
affected overall grapefruit set. Quality is very good, color is excellent, and
texture is smooth. Some defects include wind scar and sheepnose.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 15 NASS, USDA


from some groves. Most areas of the Rio Grande Valley received beneficial
rainfall.

California Fruits and Nuts: Winter pruning of orchards and vineyards continued

throughout December. Dormant sprays were applied
to nut and stonefruit trees. High winds early in the month caused some damage
to northern Sacramento Valley orchards. Avocado picking continued. Table grape
and pecan harvests were completed.

California Citrus: Grapefruit picking in the desert was active during December
with excellent quality and color reported. Texture was
smooth but there was some wind scar and sheepnose defects. Lemon harvest
gathered momentum last month. Quality varied with wind scar and bud mite a
concern to growers. Navel orange picking progressed with better color and
maturity. Moderate amounts of creasing were reported. Valencia oranges were
maturing with harvest expected to start in the desert area by mid-February.
Tangerine picking continued with large sizes, good color and few defects.

Hay Stocks on Farm: Stocks of all hay on farms totaled 110 million tons on
December 1, 1995, 4 percent above the stocks of

one year earlier. Large stocks increases occurred in most western States and the

Dakotas. The largest decreases in stocks occurred in most southern States and in

the northeast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1994 and Forecasted January 1, 1996
(Domestic Units)

1,000 Acres

All Cotton 13,720.1 16,932.4 13,322.3 15,985.9
Upland > 13,551.6 16,717.8 13,155.9 15,774.8
Amer-Pima 168.5 214.6 166.4 211.1

Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1994 and Forecasted January 1, 1996
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre: Production

Crop and Unit

> 1994: 1995

All Cotton 1/ 708 540 19, 662.0 18,235.7 17,971.2
Upland 1/ 705 536 19,324.3 17,878.7 17,610.2
Amer-Pima 1/ 974 821 337.7 357.0 361.0

Cottonseed 7,603.9 7,020.7 6,924.5

Citrus Fruits 2/ 1994~95 1995-96 1995-96
Oranges 11,616 11,741 11,918
Grapefruit 2,912 2,797 2,763
Lemons 916 1,045 1,026

1/ Yield in pounds.
2/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 3 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production,
United States, 1995-96 (Domestic Units)

Winter Potatoes

Winter Potatoes

Crop Summary: Hay Stocks on Farms, United States, 1994-95
(Domestic Unit)

Date 1994 1995
3 1,000 Tons
May 1 : 22,096 20,775
December 1 : 105,296 109,547
— a —

This report was approved on January 16, 1996, by the Secretary of Agriculture
and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics

Board. .
fed Hen
Y Sécretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Dan Glickman Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 1996 2 NASS, USDA



December Weather Summary

The month featured two notable storms, a Pacific Northwest "superstorm"
(December 12) and a South-to-Northeast snow and rainstorm (December 17-20). The
polar jet stream split over the eastern Pacific after the Northwest storm's
passage, guiding the latter system into the South for a rendezvous with parched
wheat areas from the Texas Plains to southeastern Kansas. Late in the month,
however, the Nation's weather pattern quieted under the split-flow regime,
broken only by a minor freeze into Peninsular Florida on December 25 and 26.

Monthly temperatures averaged 2 to 8 degrees F above normal throughout the West,
highlighted by December-record warmth on the first day of the month. Farther
north, frigid air amassed over Alaska and western Canada, reaching the northern
Plains on December 7 and ending the East's brief warm spell thereafter. Cold,
northwesterly flow intensified across the East late in the month, culminating in
the Florida freeze on Christmas Day. December departures reached

-2 to -6 degrees F from the Great Lakes States into the Southeast. Farther
west, the Plains' winter wheat benefited from the split-jet pattern, which ended
a 2.5-month run of wild temperature swings and dry weather.

The month opened with all-time December warmth in locations such as Salt Lake
City, UT (69 degrees F) and Worland, wy (67 degrees F). Four days later, a high
of 84 degrees F tied a December record in New Orleans, LA. By December 10,
however, daily-record cold blanketed the South and East, dropping temperatures
to -5 degrees F as far south as Springfield, MO. The cold outbreak also
initiated record Great Lake-effect snow squalls that totaled 61.7 inches (on
December 8-12) in Sault Sainte Marie, MI and 37.9 inches (in 24 hours on
December 9-10) in Buffalo, NY. By month's end, Sault Sainte Marie logged an
all-time monthly snowfall record (98.8 inches) and a December-record
precipitation total (6.24 inches). Elsewhere in the Nation's northeastern
quadrant, snowfall also excéeded December-record totals in Mansfield, OH

(23.4 inches) and Charleston, WV (22.0 inches). Monthly totals were boosted by
the December 17-20 storm, which produced 8 inches of snow or more from central
Indiana to New England, and fueled 4- to 10-inch rainfall from eastern Texas to
northwestern Florida.

In contrast, December precipitation was the lowest on record in Waterloo, IA
(0.16 inches), and totaled less than one-tenth of an inch in locations such as
Phoenix, AZ (0.01 inches), North Platte, NE (0.02 inches), and Denver, CO
(0.06 inches). Only a trace of rain fell in Colorado Springs, CO for a second
consecutive month. A 2-month dry spell in Peninsular Florida ended as the New
Year began, but not in time to boost low December totals of 0.23 inches in Miami
Beach and 0.76 inches in Orlando. In California, the December 12 storm and
subsequent disturbances jump-started the record-late wet season and briefly
pushed the Sierra Nevada snowpack--which ended the year at about 40 percent of
normal for the date--to nearly half normal. Farther north, the December 12
“superstorm" produced numerous all-time barometric and wind-gust records. In
Oregon, Newport clocked a gust to 107 mph, while Astoria measured a minimum
pressure of 28.53 inches (966 millibars).

December Field Work: December in the Pacific Northwest started with high winds

and rain. The storm saturated fields and left standing
water in low lying fields. In the southern Great Plains, small grain fields
were in critical need of moisture after ten successive weeks of dry weather.
Emergence of some late planted small grain was poor due to the continued dry
conditions.

The following week, in the Pacific Northwest heavy rain fell again on saturated
fields resulting in substantial runoff. High winds associated with the storm
system damaged some orchards. In the Southwest, small grain planting fell
behind normal due to the lateness of the cotton crop. Greenbug problems
increased in the southern Great Plains, requiring increased spraying. Florida's

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 13 NASS, USDA


The Texas grapefruit forecast, at 4.40 million boxes (176,000 tons) , is
unchanged from last month but down 5 percent from last year. Arizona's crop is
expected to be 1.20 million boxes (40,000 tons), unchanged from the previous
forecast in October but 14 percent below the 1994-95 crop.

The 1995-96 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 1.03 million tons, down
2 percent from the October forecast but up 12 percent from the 1994-

Lemon:

95 crop.

The California lemon forecast remains unchanged from October at 22.0 million
boxes (836,000 tons) but up 7 percent from last year. Fruit quality is
generally good to fair with most common defects being wind scar and Botrytis
bumps. Arizona's lemon forecast decreased 9 percent from October to

5.00 million boxes (190,000 tons). The crop is expected to be up 39 percent
from a year ago.

Tangelos: The 1995-96 Florida tangelo crop is forecast at 2.70 million boxes

(122,000 tons), unchanged from last month but down 14 percent from
last year’s production, There were nearly 1.6 million boxes of tangelos
utilized by month’s end.

Tangerines: The 1995-96 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 322,000 tons, 1
percent less than last month but 17 percent more than last year. The Florida
tangerine forecast is 4.30 million boxes (204,000 tons), unchanged from the
Previous forecast. About 2.7 million boxes of tangerines were harvested.
Picking of Florida’s Honey tangerines started while Dancy harvest was almost
over. California’s tangerine forecast is 2.40 million boxes (90,000 tons),

4 percent more than October's forecast and 9 percent more than last season. The
Arizona forecast was reduced 21 percent from last quarter to 750,000 boxes
(28,000 tons), but was 15 percent more than last season.

Temples: The 1995-96 forecast of Florida temple production is 2.20 million
boxes (99,000 tons), unchanged from last month but down 14 percent
from last season. Temple harvest began with fresh shipments.

K-Early Citrus: The 1995-96 forecast of Florida K-Early Citrus fruit is

150,000 boxes (7,000 tons), unchanged from the last forecast
but up 25 percent from last season. K-early harvest was complete by the end of
November.

Florida Citrus: Most of December was dry and warm in the Florida citrus belt.
More rain fell the last three days of the month than the entire
rest of the month. Christmas week temperatures turned cold with some below
freezing temperatures recorded. Some icing of fruit occurred in the
historically coldest locations, and some foliage suffered freeze burn. Those
cold temperatures caused several crops that could have gone fresh to go directly
to processing. Harvest of all crops during December was very active for both
fresh and processing use. Caretakers cut cover crops prior to and following
harvest for fire prevention in those minimum care groves. An estimated
64.6 million boxes of early and mid oranges (excluding Navels) were utilized by
month's end. Navel utilization through the end of December was 4.8 million
boxes.

Texas Citrus: Grapefruit harvest moved ahead during December and was about

36 percent complete by the end of the month. Early and mid
season orange harvest was about 59 percent complete. Interior quality of fruit
remained very good, however, sheepnose fruit continued to cause lower packouts

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
January 1996 16 NASS, USDA