Cr Pr 2-2 (1-01)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released January 10, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Cotton Production Down 1 Percent from December

All cotton production is forecast at 17.2 million bales, down 1 percent from last month but up 1 percent from

1999. Yield is expected to average 631 pounds per harvested acre, up 12 pounds from last month. The

increase in yield is the result of a reduction in harvested acreage. The most significant production change

indicated by ginnings and survey data is a decrease of 150,000 bales of upland cotton in Texas. Fields

continue to be abandoned due to the extremely dry weather throughout the growing season, coupled with poor

harvest conditions in the fall.

The U.S. all orange January 1 forecast of the 2000-01 crop is 12.6 million tons, virtually unchanged from

December’s forecast but 4 percent less than last season’s final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is

229 million boxes (10.3 million tons), unchanged from the December forecast but 2 percent less than the

1999-2000 crop year. This forecast does not reflect any effects of the freezing temperatures that occurred in

parts of Florida’s citrus belt the last few days of December and the first week of January. All surveys used for

this forecast were conducted before the freezing temperatures arrived. The early and midseason orange

forecast remained at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), 5 percent lower than the previous season. Record

low droppage rates and the smallest fruit size in the past ten years contributed to the forecast. Approximately

38 percent of the crop has been harvested. Florida’s Valencia forecast, at 102 million boxes (4.59 million

tons), is unchanged from December but is 3 percent higher than last season’s final utilization. The Valencias

also have smaller fruit size and the lowest droppage rates in recent history. 

The all orange forecast for California, at 59.0 million boxes (2.21 million tons), is the same as projected in

October but down 12 percent from the previous season. California’s Navel orange harvest is 25 percent

complete. The number of fruit is less than last season, but the fruit size is larger than a year ago. The forecast

of all oranges in Texas is 2.10 million boxes (89,000 tons), an increase of 5 percent from the initial forecast in

October. If realized, it will be 21 percent higher than last season. Arizona’s all orange forecast remains at

1.05 million boxes (40,000 tons) but is 5 percent less than last season’s utilization.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is unchanged at 1.55 gallons per box at

42.0 degrees Brix, virtually the same as last season’s yield. The early and midseason portion is projected to

yield 1.51 gallons per box and the late season Valencia oranges are at 1.62 gallons. These yields are

considerably behind the all time records set during the 1998-99 season when the all orange yield was

1.63 gallons, the early-midseason varieties yielded 1.58 gallons, and the Valencias yielded 1.71 gallons per

box. 

The pounds solids per box, pounds of unfinished juice, and the Brix are all considerably ahead of last year’s

off-bloom fruit. This year’s fruit are mostly smaller than average size, which generally produce more juice

per 90 pound box. These projections of yield are based on the assumption that harvest patterns and utilization

by the processors will be similar to the past several seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on January 10, 2001.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Keith J. Collins

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................8

Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Cottonseed ............................................................................6

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Hay Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 4 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested by Type, State,

and United States, 1998-2000

Type

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 US

495.0

250.0

920.0

650.0

89.0

1,370.0

17.0

535.0

950.0

370.0

66.3

710.0

160.0

290.0

450.0

5,650.0

92.0

13,064.3

15.9

200.0

7.3

105.0

328.2

495.0

265.9

920.0

850.0

89.0

1,370.0

17.0

535.0

950.0

370.0

73.6

710.0

160.0

290.0

450.0

5,755.0

92.0

13,392.5

565.0

270.0

970.0

610.0

107.0

1,470.0

33.0

615.0

1,200.0

380.0

84.0

880.0

240.0

330.0

570.0

6,150.0

110.0

14,584.0

9.0

240.0

7.5

33.0

289.5

565.0

279.0

970.0

850.0

107.0

1,470.0

33.0

615.0

1,200.0

380.0

91.5

880.0

240.0

330.0

570.0

6,183.0

110.0

14,873.5

590.0

280.0

960.0

775.0

130.0

1,500.0

40.0

710.0

1,300.0

400.0

90.0

930.0

280.0

300.0

570.0

6,400.0

110.0

15,365.0

6.0

145.0

4.5

16.0

171.5

590.0

286.0

960.0

920.0

130.0

1,500.0

40.0

710.0

1,300.0

400.0

94.5

930.0

280.0

300.0

570.0

6,416.0

110.0

15,536.5

475.0

248.0

900.0

620.0

80.0

1,280.0

16.5

525.0

940.0

357.0

60.3

705.0

120.0

286.0

445.0

3,300.0

91.0

10,448.8

15.5

180.0

7.3

32.0

234.8

475.0

263.5

900.0

800.0

80.0

1,280.0

16.5

525.0

940.0

357.0

67.6

705.0

120.0

286.0

445.0

3,332.0

91.0

10,683.6

561.0

269.0

960.0

605.0

106.0

1,300.0

28.0

610.0

1,180.0

377.0

79.0

825.0

150.0

315.0

565.0

5,100.0

108.0

13,138.0

8.9

239.0

7.0

32.0

286.9

561.0

277.9

960.0

844.0

106.0

1,300.0

28.0

610.0

1,180.0

377.0

86.0

825.0

150.0

315.0

565.0

5,132.0

108.0

13,424.9

530.0

278.0

950.0

770.0

106.0

1,350.0

37.0

695.0

1,280.0

388.0

85.0

925.0

170.0

290.0

565.0

4,400.0

108.0

12,927.0

6.0

144.0

4.5

16.0

170.5

530.0

284.0

950.0

914.0

106.0

1,350.0

37.0

695.0

1,280.0

388.0

89.5

925.0

170.0

290.0

565.0

4,416.0

108.0

13,097.5
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 5 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 1998-2000

Type

and

State

Yield Production 1

1998 1999 2000 1998 1999 2000

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 FL

 GA

 KS

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 US

559

1,177

645

887

489

578

404

586

737

471

640

699

560

587

589

524

765

619

830

941

658

791

904

559

1,156

645

899

489

578

404

586

737

471

642

699

560

587

589

526

765

625

535

1,278

714

1,254

516

579

375

709

704

601

662

475

461

428

505

475

635

595

879

1,210

734

669

1,128

535

1,265

714

1,241

516

579

375

709

704

601

668

475

461

428

505

477

635

607

489

1,312

733

1,371

453

583

298

628

649

668

734

747

438

629

607

431

707

625

824

1,167

768

900

1,119

489

1,302

733

1,339

453

583

298

628

649

668

736

747

438

629

607

433

707

631

553.0

608.0

1,209.0

1,146.0

81.5

1,542.0

13.9

641.0

1,444.0

350.0

80.4

1,026.0

140.0

350.0

546.0

3,600.0

145.1

13,475.9

26.8

352.8

10.0

52.7

442.3

553.0

634.8

1,209.0

1,498.8

81.5

1,542.0

13.9

641.0

1,444.0

350.0

90.4

1,026.0

140.0

350.0

546.0

3,652.7

145.1

13,918.2

625.0

716.0

1,428.0

1,580.0

114.0

1,567.0

21.9

901.0

1,731.0

472.0

109.0

816.0

144.0

281.0

595.0

5,050.0

142.8

16,293.7

16.3

602.7

10.7

44.6

674.3

625.0

732.3

1,428.0

2,182.7

114.0

1,567.0

21.9

901.0

1,731.0

472.0

119.7

816.0

144.0

281.0

595.0

5,094.6

142.8

16,968.0

540.0

760.0

1,450.0

2,200.0

100.0

1,640.0

23.0

910.0

1,730.0

540.0

130.0

1,440.0

155.0

380.0

715.0

3,950.0

159.0

16,822.0

10.3

350.0

7.2

30.0

397.5

540.0

770.3

1,450.0

2,550.0

100.0

1,640.0

23.0

910.0

1,730.0

540.0

137.2

1,440.0

155.0

380.0

715.0

3,980.0

159.0

17,219.5 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-lb. net weight bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 6 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production by State and United States, 1998-2000

State

Production

1998 1999 2000 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AZ

AR

CA

FL

GA

KS

LA

MS

MO

NM

NC

OK

SC

TN

TX

VA

US

192.0

288.0

478.0

544.0

26.0

526.0

5.8

236.0

561.0

135.0

32.6

351.0

54.0

122.0

205.0

1,558.0

51.0

5,365.4

225.0

275.0

552.0

799.0

36.0

546.0

8.0

331.0

667.0

175.0

50.5

278.0

52.0

100.0

223.0

1,987.0

49.0

6,353.5

191.0

300.0

558.0

926.0

35.0

562.0

8.9

333.0

669.0

207.0

51.7

493.0

61.0

133.0

273.0

1,585.0

52.0

6,438.6 1 Estimates based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 7 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1999-2001

Seasonal

Group

and

State

Area

Yield Production

Planted Harvested

2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 1999 2000 2001

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring 1

 AL 2

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC 3

 TX

 Total

9.0

8.2

17.2

9.0

18.8

22.3

17.2

5.1

17.5

9.8

77.4

9.0

7.8

16.8

9.0

8.0

17.0

9.0

18.8

21.5

16.5

5.0

17.0

9.3

75.6

9.0

5.0

14.0

320

260

292

280

395

295

295

295

200

240

290

300

210

268

2,210

1,860

4,070

280

3,024

7,600

8,820

6,930

1,890

3,300

2,303

25,327

2,880

2,080

4,960

2,520

7,426

6,343

4,868

1,475

3,400

2,232

21,921

2,700

1,050

3,750

 1 2000 Revised. 2 Spring estimates included with summer starting in 2000. 3 Summer estimates included with spring starting in 2000.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1999-2000

Month

Area Fresh Production

Total in Crop Harvested 1999 2000

1999 2000 1999 2000

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Nov

Dec

3,205

3,230

2,720

2,695

1,605

1,635

1,585

1,875

3,565

3,340

4,380

4,500
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 8 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1998-99, 1999-00 and Forecasted January 1, 2001 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 4

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 Other 4

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 5

 CA 5

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus

 FL

550

21,000

112,000

1,250

134,800

600

15,000

74,000

180

89,780

1,150

36,000

186,000

1,430

224,580

1,800

17,800

28,700

550

750

7,300

47,050

6,100

61,200

950

1,500

4,950

7,400

3,450

16,200

19,650

2,550

80

600

40,000

134,000

1,540

176,140

500

27,000

99,000

200

126,700

1,100

67,000

233,000

1,740

302,840

1,950

20,900

31,900

600

500

7,000

53,400

5,930

66,830

850

2,300

7,000

10,150

3,100

19,600

22,700

2,200

110

500

34,000

127,000

1,900

163,400

550

25,000

102,000

200

127,750

1,050

59,000

229,000

2,100

291,150

1,800

20,000

30,000

600

7,200

50,000

6,500

64,300

800

2,200

6,200

9,200

3,400

21,000

24,400

2,100

60

21

787

5,040

53

5,901

22

563

3,330

8

3,923

43

1,350

8,370

61

9,824

81

757

1,220

23

25

244

2,000

244

2,513

36

56

235

327

131

616

747

115

4

22

1,500

6,030

66

7,618

19

1,013

4,455

8

5,495

41

2,513

10,485

74

13,113

88

888

1,356

25

17

235

2,269

237

2,758

32

86

333

451

118

745

863

99

5

19

1,275

5,715

81

7,090

21

938

4,590

8

5,557

40

2,213

10,305

89

12,647

81

850

1,275

20

241

2,125

260

2,646

30

83

295

408

129

798

927

95

3 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early

Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01

crop. 5 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 9 NASS, USDA

Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States,

December 1 and May 1, 1998-2000

State Dec 1 May 1

1998 1999 1 2000 1999 2000 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FL

GA

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

1,213

177

1,900

3,246

2,807

77

18

357

1,000

3,329

2,100

1,775

4,500

6,500

4,922

290

196

333

101

2,093

5,261

1,500

6,933

4,568

5,170

857

72

121

450

1,990

1,189

4,064

2,558

3,042

2,159

2,800

12

415

9,500

3,175

5,496

1,695

328

1,693

1,663

949

5,100

2,372

112,066

1,472

184

1,900

2,285

2,900

47

15

550

1,245

2,617

1,600

1,316

4,700

5,800

4,006

502

138

300

84

2,110

5,490

1,350

5,997

4,448

4,900

867

65

109

595

1,900

1,090

5,291

1,830

4,200

2,245

1,700

8

410

9,500

2,655

6,568

1,540

229

1,883

1,377

524

5,900

2,480

108,922

1,000

202

2,150

1,954

1,770

82

29

450

950

2,400

1,700

1,629

4,500

4,500

5,192

415

145

525

108

2,800

4,446

850

5,392

3,168

3,500

801

66

156

600

2,280

1,300

5,212

3,119

3,700

1,766

2,800

11

470

8,200

3,405

6,660

1,350

280

2,900

1,303

1,144

4,800

1,550

103,730

141

28

260

428

966

13

8

27

209

777

543

350

1,050

1,525

913

58

56

76

40

556

1,493

200

1,387

1,104

1,306

233

17

15

170

435

163

545

581

507

135

730

2

96

2,000

635

1,450

485

116

417

410

150

1,400

611

24,817

202

27

500

381

690

8

6

80

240

257

410

290

1,150

1,400

577

91

23

65

17

1,170

1,570

135

1,445

1,011

1,500

290

11

28

185

385

255

1,430

430

1,000

128

440

1

88

3,100

607

2,627

320

60

257

165

40

3,000

725

28,817 1 Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 10 NASS, USDA

December Weather Summary

The year closed on a very cold note across the eastern half of the Nation, while a milder weather pattern

developed from the Rockies westward. Heavy snow and gusty winds frequently accompanied the cold

weather in the northern Plains and Midwest, stressing livestock and hampering rural transportation. Major

winter storms struck the South just 2 weeks apart, causing electrical and travel disruptions. Parts of Arkansas

and Oklahoma were hardest hit by severe ice accumulations. As the cold weather regime deepened,

temperatures fell below 32 degrees F in Florida’s northern citrus areas on December 20. Slightly more

significant freezes affected all but southeastern Florida on December 31 and January 1, adversely affecting

some winter vegetables as far south as the Everglades.

Monthly temperatures ranged from 8 to 14 degrees F below normal in the Midwest and generally 4 to 12

degrees F below normal on the Plains. Cold weather allowed winter wheat to remain dormant or enter

dormancy throughout the Plains, Midwest, and Northwest. An extensive snow cover insulated most of the

winter wheat crop from harsh conditions. Somewhat milder conditions prevailed, however, on the central

High Plains, where a gap in snow coverage helped to keep temperatures closer to normal. Meanwhile, cool,

damp weather slowed or halted winter grain development across the South. In contrast, monthly temperatures

averaged up to 5 degrees F above normal in portions of California and the Southwest.

Widespread areas of above-normal monthly precipitation were confined to the South-Central States and areas

from the Midwest into the Northeast. The return of cold, wet weather to the southern Plains halted the

emergence and development of late-planted winter wheat. Meanwhile, unusually dry weather brought

renewed drought concerns to the Southeast. The central portion of Florida’s peninsula remained especially

dry, necessitating increased irrigation for citrus and vegetables. Only light precipitation fell in the Northwest,

while little moisture reached California and Arizona.

December Agricultural Summary

Warm, dry weather aided fieldwork in Texas early in the month, especially on the High Plains, where

producers continued to harvest cotton, sorghum, and peanuts. Growers also accelerated seedbed preparations,

and wheat and oat seeding resumed in areas that were previously too wet.

As mid-month approached, a strong Arctic front crossed Texas, bringing strong winds and freezing

temperatures. In central and eastern areas of the State, ice storms downed power lines and damaged peach

and pecan trees. The extreme cold had little impact on cotton, sorghum, and peanut harvest activities on the

High Plains, but ice accumulations delayed progress in some areas.

The harvest season was nearly complete in Texas by mid-month, with most remaining crops unsuitable for

harvest. Seedbed preparation and small grain seeding continued through mid-month where possible, but

progress steadily slowed due to poor weather and lateness of the planting season. In central Texas, cold

weather and saturated soils prohibited planting and hindered crop emergence and growth of early-planted

fields. Weather conditions remained favorable for fruit and vegetable harvests in the Rio Grande Valley,

where the citrus harvest remained active. The pecan harvest continued, as conditions allowed.

Dry weather prevailed in the Southwest, aiding cotton and sugar beet harvests, which were essentially

complete by mid-month in California. Growers shredded cotton stalks and disced fields to comply with 

plow-down requirements. Field preparations continued for the 2001 cotton crop. Alfalfa hay cutting ceased

shortly after mid-month in most areas, but some fields were green-chopped for silage.

The dry weather also supported seedbed preparation for California’s winter forage and small grain seedings,

although lack of soil moisture forced some growers to postpone planting. Other growers sowed crops and

irrigated fields to aid germination. Warm weather aided growth of early-planted fields, but overcast skies

often limited development.

California’s fruit growers harvested fruit, pruned trees and vines, and applied dormant sprays. Some

orchards were irrigated due to moisture shortages. Grapefruit harvest was active in the San Joaquin Valley,

and new crop navel orange harvest continued. Lemon picking was active in southern California. Grape

harvest for fresh market consumption was nearly complete by mid-month. Winter vegetables thrived, and
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 11 NASS, USDA

some were harvested. Fall broccoli and cauliflower harvests continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Green

speciality vegetables were in various stages of harvest, but the lettuce harvest slowed.

In Florida, topsoil moisture was very short across much of the State, but moisture supplies were mostly

adequate to sustain development of small grains and cool season forages in the Panhandle. In the peninsula,

producers delayed winter grazing of small grains, as drought halted vegetative growth. Orchard caretakers

operated irrigation systems to keep trees in good condition, but new growth was limited. Central Florida

received precipitation near the end of the month, but rain amounts varied. Most groves received less than

1 inch of rain, and moisture shortages remained widespread at year’s end.

Freezing temperatures in northern Florida citrus-producing counties occurred shortly after mid-month. 

Another cold front brought freezing temperatures into central Florida at the end of the month. Overnight

temperatures remained below freezing for several hours in the Florida citrus-producing region, but did not

significantly damage citrus trees. However, some new growth may be lost due to the freezing temperatures in

areas hit by the lowest temperatures. Vegetable producers ran irrigation equipment to prevent damage to

crops due to the cold weather.

A mixture of rain and freezing rain substantially boosted moisture supplies across the Southeast, lower

Mississippi Valley, and adjacent parts of the southern Great Plains near the end of the month. The freezing

rain downed power lines and damaged trees, with the greatest damage centered on Arkansas. In Louisiana,

the sugarcane harvest neared completion, despite brief rain delays. Precipitation was scattered and light along

the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plains.

Most of the northern Great Plains and Corn Belt received enough snow to protect winter wheat from

below-normal, sometimes bitter cold, temperatures. However, strong winds drifted snow and left some wheat

fields exposed or poorly protected in the northern Great Plains.

Cotton: Upland cotton planted acreage is estimated at 15.4 million acres, up 15,000 acres from the June

estimate, and up 5 percent from 1999. Harvested acreage at 12.9 million acres, was 2 percent below last year

due to above average abandonment in Texas. Producers planted 171,500 acres of American-Pima cotton in

2000, down 41 percent from 1999. The reduction in planted acreage led to a 41 percent decline in harvested

acreage, as 170,500 acres of American-Pima cotton were harvested in 2000.

Producers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia) experienced

delays in planting cotton during the spring of 2000. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina were

slowed due to extremely dry soils. Conversely, North Carolina and Virginia cotton producers experienced

planting delays due to rain and lingering moisture. Moisture shortages persisted in parts of Alabama, Florida,

Georgia, and South Carolina throughout most of the growing season. Rains received in some areas quickly

evaporated due to hot, dry conditions. The lack of moisture led to the abandonment of some fields. Adequate

moisture was received in North Carolina and Virginia; however, abnormally cool temperatures slowed

development in some areas. Harvest began in most parts of the region during the middle of September and

progressed near average for most of the fall. Virginia and parts of the Carolinas lagged behind average, due

to the cool weather which slowed the maturation of the crop.

The Delta States’ (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) planted 3.94 million acres, a

5 percent increase over last year. Harvested area totaled 3.88 million acres. Planting progressed smoothly

throughout most of the region. Dry weather permitted excess moisture to drain from fields and allowed

planting to get into full swing by early May. Above normal temperatures stimulated development throughout

the season, but resulted in some deterioration of condition. The rapid development of the crop allowed

harvest to progress well ahead of the 5-year average. Louisiana growers were finished picking cotton prior to

November 1, while the other Delta States had well over 90 percent of their acreage harvested before

November. Rains during November delayed the completion of harvest in these States; however, by

November 21, all five Delta States had completed harvest. Data from the objective yield surveys show boll

weights in Arkansas and Louisiana were ranked seventh in the last 10 years, while Mississippi’s weight was

ranked ninth. 

Producers in the Southwestern States (Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) were able to maintain a

planting pace on par with the 5-year average, despite combating weather delays. Weather conditions during

the second half of May allowed Oklahoma cotton producers to stay well ahead of the 5-year average planting
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 12 NASS, USDA

rate. Texas producers managed to maintain pace with average, despite extremely dry conditions and high

winds. Hot, dry growing conditions early in the season resulted in development progressing ahead of average

throughout most of the region. Most areas received rains during late June, easing moisture concerns that had

developed during the month; however, the precipitation came too late for some fields which were plowed

under and replanted to alternative crops. Extremely hot temperatures and high winds persisted throughout the

remainder of the growing season, leading to depleted soil moisture, deteriorating condition ratings, and

abandoned fields. Irrigated crops were also under stress in some areas of the Plains due to available water

being exhausted at a rapid rate. Harvest began early due to the rapidly maturing crop and was aided by a light

to killing frost in early October; however, progress slowed during November due to rain and high humidity. 

Quality and yields were adversely affected by the rainfall. Despite the delays, Oklahoma remained ahead of

the 5-year average harvest pace. Texas, which began the harvest season ahead of average, had fallen off pace

by mid-November. Objective yield survey data indicate Texas’ boll weights are ranked sixth in the past ten

years.

Arizona and California experienced excellent planting conditions throughout the spring of 2000. By midMay, California planting was virtually complete. Arizona producers had completed their planting by the end

of May. The early planting and above average temperatures during June allowed the upland cotton in the

West to progress well ahead of average. Irrigation alleviated any concerns associated with dry spells which

accompanied the hot temperatures. Mild temperatures during parts of July and August resulted in some

delays in crop development, but the early season progress allowed the crop to stay ahead of average. Harvest

began on or ahead of normal, despite some rain delays. Although the rains had only minimal delays on

harvest activities, quality factors were diminished in some areas. Data from the objective yield plots indicate

California’s boll weights are ranked ninth since 1991. 

American-Pima production is forecast at 397,500 bales, down 12,300 bales from the December forecast, and

down 41 percent from last year’s output. The U.S. yield is estimated at 1,119 pounds per harvested acre,

down 25 pounds from last month. California, New Mexico, and Texas all have a lower production than their

December forecast, while Arizona’s production is unchanged from last month. The San Joaquin Valley began

planting American-Pima cotton in late March, but cool weather resulted in some delays and slowed plant

development. The crop progessed well, despite more cool weather during late August. Harvest proceeded

ahead of average and was virtually complete by the beginning of December. 

All cotton ginnings totaled 16,097,100 running bales prior to January 1, compared with 15,965,150 running

bales ginned to the same date last year and 13,159,700 running bales in 1998.

Winter Potatoes: Production of winter potatoes in 2001 is forecast at 3.75 million cwt, down 24 percent

from 2000 and 8 percent below 1999. Area for harvest is estimated at 14,000 acres, down 18 percent from a

year ago. The average yield is forecast at 268 cwt per acre, 24 cwt below last year.

Heavy rains in Florida’s Homestead area during December virtually wiped out their winter potato crop. 

Winter acreage remaining for harvest in Florida is down 37 percent from the previous year. Production on the

remaining area for harvest is forecast at half last year’s output. In California, winter production this year is

expected to be 6 percent below a year ago. Acreage remains the same but the average yield is expected to be

down 20 cwt per acre from last winter season.

Spring Potatoes: Revised spring potato production, at 21.9 million cwt in 2000, was down 13 percent on a

comparable basis from a year earlier but 4 percent above 1998. Final production was down 3 percent from

the May 1 forecast. Harvested area totaled 75,600 acres, down 10 percent from comparable estimates in 1999

while the average yield of 290 cwt per acre decreased 10 cwt from last year.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.50 million pounds for December, 3 percent more

than November and 35 percent higher than December 1999. Area in crop totaled 2,695 acres, 1 percent

below last month and 17 percent lower than last year. Harvested area totaled 1,875 acres, 18 percent above

the November acreage and 15 percent higher than December 1999. Production from virus resistant varieties,
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 13 NASS, USDA

along with other strategies to combat the papaya ringspot virus, have boosted yields for most of the year. 

Weather conditions throughout December were variable with light showers and generally sunny skies. Soil

moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2000-01 grapefruit crop for the United States remains at 2.65 million tons, 

down 4 percent from last season but up 5 percent from the 1998-99 season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is

50.0 million boxes (2.13 million tons), unchanged from the December forecast but 6 percent lower than the

previous season. The all white grapefruit forecast, which includes seedless and seedy varieties, remains at

20.0 million boxes (850,000 tons). If realized, the crop size will be down 4 percent from last season. The

colored seedless utilization is forecast at 30.0 million boxes (1.28 million tons), the same as the December

forecast but 6 percent less than the previous season. Fruit size continues to increase, but remains the smallest

in the 10-year series. Loss from droppage is also at the lowest level in the series. The cool, dry weather since

November, which has limited the growth in the past months, has also limited fruit droppage. 

Forecasts for Arizona, California, and Texas remain unchanged from their original October forecasts. In

California, there is a lighter fruit set than last season, but size and quality are very good. Texas grapefruit has

excellent color, sweetness, and overall quality. In Arizona, grove condition and quality of fruit are good to

excellent.

Lemons: The 2000-01 lemon forecast for the United States is 927,000 tons, down 1 percent from the initial

October forecast. If realized, it will be up 7 percent from last season and 24 percent above the 1998-99 crop. 

California production is forecast at 21.0 million boxes (798,000 tons), unchanged from October but 7 percent

more than the previous season. Harvest is active in all three producing areas of California. Size, quality, and

fruit color are good. The Arizona lemon crop is forecast at 3.40 million boxes (129,000 tons), 6 percent

below the October forecast but up 10 percent from last season. Fruit quality is good to excellent.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2000-01 tangelo forecast remains at 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons) and, if realized, the

utilization will be 5 percent less than last season. It will also be the smallest utilization of tangelos recorded

since the 1968-69 season. This season’s number of bearing trees is down from last year and the average fruit

per tree is similar to last season.

Tangerines: The 2000-01 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 408,000 tons, up less than 1 percent from

December, but down 10 percent from last season’s record high utilization of 451,000 tons. Florida’s

tangerine crop decreased to 6.20 million boxes (295,000 tons), 2 percent below the December forecast and

11 percent less than the record high use of 7.00 million boxes (333,000 tons) last season. The harvest of

Fallglo and Robinson tangerines is complete, while the harvest of Sunburst and Dancy is active. The late

season Honey harvest has not yet started. Fruit size is above average and larger than last December. 

Droppage, however, has increased substantially from last season and is now closer to the 10-year average. 

California’s forecast of tangerine production is 2.20 million boxes (83,000 tons), up 10 percent from the

October forecast but 4 percent below last season. Fruit size and quality have been exceptionally good. The

Satsuma harvest is wrapping up and the harvests of Minneolas and Fairchilds are active. The Arizona

forecast of tangerine production is 800,000 boxes (30,000 tons), 6 percent below both the October forecast

and last season. Harvest is active.

Temples: Florida’s 2000-01 Temple forecast remains at 1.80 million boxes (81,000 tons), unchanged from

December. If realized, it will be 8 percent lower than the 1.95 million boxes (88,000 tons) recorded last

season but equal to the utilization from the 1998-99 season. Average fruit size is below last season and close

to the minimum size in the 10 season series. Loss from droppage continues to be above last season and the

average of the series.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 14 NASS, USDA

K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2000-01 is 60,000 boxes (2,700 tons), unchanged

from December but 50,000 boxes fewer than last season. Harvest is approximately 50 percent complete.

Florida Citrus: December was a very cold and dry month. The northern parts of the citrus belt experienced

below freezing temperatures. Temperatures during the middle of the month were not low enough, however,

to cause serious damage to the current fruit crop. Also, most fruit in the northern counties had been harvested

before the mid-December cold temperatures arrived. In the coldest locations where there was still fruit on the

trees, harvesting crews rapidly moved any cold-damaged fruit to the processors. There has been limited tree

damage. A few of the coldest areas may have leaf drop from the frost. 

There were very few rains during the month. Most of the growers and caretakers have been irrigating to

maintain good tree condition and to improve fruit size. Lakes, ponds, and water reservoirs are at very low

levels with some too dry for irrigation use. Harvesting crews have been very active. By the end of the month,

some juice plants were overloaded with fruit and had to limit the number of loads delivered from the groves. 

Most of the fresh fruit packinghouses were very busy packing for the Christmas holidays. Caretakers have

been cutting cover crops prior to harvest and for fire protection. Some hedging and topping of harvested

groves continued in the coastal and southern counties.

Texas Citrus: Harvest is well underway for grapefruit and oranges with about a third of the crop picked by

the end of December. The color, sweetness, and overall quality are excellent for both grapefruit and oranges.

California Citrus: Precipitation has been well below normal in the citrus growing areas. Rain is needed to

improve fruit size. Approximately one-fourth of the navel orange crop has been picked and quality is good. 

However, growers are concerned about puff and crease. The new Valencia orange crop is maturing well and

has a good set. Picking should begin in the desert area in late February. Grapefruit harvest was active in the

desert area. Fruit size and quality are good. Picking of lemons was active in all lemon growing areas. For

the most part, lemons showed good quality, size, and color. In the Central Valley, harvest of Satsuma

tangerines was near completion. Minneola and Fairchild tangerines are currently being picked.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Growers were busy with normal winter cultural activities during

December such as weed control, fertilizing, and pruning. Growers also had to irrigate orchards due to the

lack of precipitation. Cold nights were beneficial for the dormancy of fruit trees and grape vines. Preparation

for replanting of trees was also active. Harvest of pecans, kiwifruit, and persimmons continued. Picking of

table grapes and apples was completed. Digging of strawberry nursery plants is underway.

Hay Stocks on Farm: Stocks of all hay on farms December 1, 2000 totaled 104 million tons, 5 percent

below the stocks on farms December 1, 1999. Stocks decreases occurred in 23 of the 48 contiguous States. 

The drought conditions in the southern States, from Louisiana to Florida, and the Great Plains States, played a

major role in their stocks decreases from a year ago. Colorado, Wyoming, and Mississippi had the largest

percentage of stocks decreases, down 39, 38, and 37 percent, respectively, from last December. The States

along the Ohio Valley, and eastward, all saw increases in stocks as hay production rebounded from the 1999

drought. Hay stocks in Pennsylvania were up 65 percent, and 118 percent in West Virginia.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 15 NASS, USDA

Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The objective yield survey for oranges for the January 1 forecast was conducted in

Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing

trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and

fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and

Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End of year estimates will be published in September’s Citrus Fruits

Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season,

including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for

recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 8.7 percent. However, if you

exclude the seven freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 4.6 percent. This means that chances are

two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by

more than 8.7 percent or 4.6 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 15.0 percent or 8.2 percent, excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

571,000 tons (383,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 33,000 tons to 1.89 million tons (33,000 tons to

739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate

5 times and above 15 times (below 4 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does

not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

January 2001 16 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-2127

Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops,

Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing

Vegetables (202) 720-3250

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488

Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans &

Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270

Steve Gunn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

Tobacco (202) 720-4488

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables,

Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. on February 8, 2001.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its

programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political

beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all

programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of

program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s

TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room

326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington,

D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity

provider and employer.

ACCESS TO REPORTS!!

For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services:

INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the

Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select “Today’s Reports” or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject.

E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION

There are two options for subscribing via e-mail. All NASS reports are available by subscription

free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 1) Starting with the NASS Home Page at

http://www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button

which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the

Subscription Page and follow the instructions. 2) If you do NOT have Internet access, send an email message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list.

AUTOFAX ACCESS

NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000,

using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of

available reports.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS

CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)

Other areas, please call 703-834-0125 FAX: 703-834-0110

(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET,

or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.
Agricultural

Outlook

Forum

2001

USDA's 77th outlook conference will offer timely forecasts of

farm prospects and insight on developments affecting the farm

economy. The program will feature top business leaders and

officials. Networking opportunities abound at this popular event,

attended by over 1,300 people last February.

Policy Debate. Future farm policy will be a hot topic during 2001.

The Forum will open with high-level panels on the next farm bill

and world trade talks. Focus sessions during the two-day 

program will preview key policy issues on next year’s agenda.

Farm Prospects. Attendees will hear leading analysts discuss the

2001 commodity outlook and industry trends, and receive USDA’s

latest 10-year projections.

Act Now. Get registration details and program updates at the

Forum website. Can’t attend in person? Sign up now to get

speeches by e-mail after the Forum, or download them from

the website. 

February 22-23, 2001

Arlington, Virginia

www.usda.gov/oce

agforum@oce.usda.gov

(202) 720-3050