Cr Pr 2-2 (2-04)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released February 10, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down from January

The U.S. all orange February forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.3 million tons, down 1 percent from the

January forecast but 15 percent above last season’s final utilization. Florida’s all orange forecast is reduced to

246 million boxes (11.1 million tons), 2 percent below the January 1 forecast but 21 percent above the previous

season. The early and mid-season varieties forecast is lowered 4 million boxes to 128 million boxes

(5.76 million tons), 3 percent lower than last month but 14 percent above last season. Results from the row

count survey, combined with estimated utilization, indicated a reduction from the January forecast. The fruit

size and droppage measurements, finalized in January, also support the reduction. Harvest of Florida’s Navel

oranges, a component of the early-midseason varieties, has decreased as crystallization has been observed in the

fruit. Crystallization causes the fruit to dry out from the top making it unusable for fresh shipments. The

Valencia forecast is unchanged from January at 118 million boxes (5.31 million tons) but is 30 percent above

last season’s final utilization. Fruit size continues to be above average but not as large as last season. Fruit

droppage remains near the minimum of the previous 10-seasons. Arizona, California, and Texas orange

production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2003-04 season is forecast at 1.53 gallons per

box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month but slightly below last season’s final estimate of

1.54 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.47 gallons, down from 1.49 for the

2002-03 crop. Valencia’s are projected to yield 1.60 gallons as compared to 1.61 gallons for last season. All

projections of yield assume that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several

years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on February 10, 2004.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

J. B. Penn

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2002-2003

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

442.0

21.3

465.0

43.6

971.9

19.0

1.4

30.0

0.9

51.3

461.0

22.7

495.0

44.5

1,023.2

421.0

20.5

450.0

42.4

933.9

20.0

1.5

40.0

1.4

62.9

441.0

22.0

490.0

43.8

996.8

38.3

99.0

28.3

39.1

34.9

38.1

35.5

28.3

30.0

32.2

38.3

95.1

28.3

38.9

34.7

40.0

99.2

27.0

37.0

34.9

40.0

37.6

27.0

35.0

31.6

40.0

95.0

27.0

36.9

34.7

16,929

2,109

13,160

1,705

33,903

724

50

849

27

1,650

17,653

2,159

14,009

1,732

35,553

16,840

2,034

12,150

1,569

32,593

800

56

1,080

49

1,985

17,640

2,090

13,230

1,618

34,578

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the 2003 Crop Production Summary.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2003 2004

2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Dec

Jan

2,210

2,080 2,210

1,345

1,505 1,345

3,010

3,935 3,635

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted February 1, 2004 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL 7

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

270

32,000

128,000

1,530

161,800

250

19,500

102,000

210

121,960

520

51,500

230,000

1,740

283,760

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

5,900

46,700

5,900

58,660

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

18,300

21,100

2,150

200

41,000

112,000

1,350

154,550

270

21,000

91,000

220

112,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,500

5,500

8,430

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

220

39,000

128,000

1,300

168,520

250

19,000

118,000

230

137,480

470

58,000

246,000

1,530

306,000

1,400

16,000

24,000

100

5,200

40,000

5,300

50,600

600

2,500

5,900

9,000

3,200

23,000

26,200

1,300

10

1,200

5,760

65

7,035

9

731

4,590

9

5,339

19

1,931

10,350

74

12,374

70

803

1,182

5

198

1,985

236

2,424

23

83

314

420

106

695

801

97

8

1,538

5,040

57

6,643

10

788

4,095

9

4,902

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

956

4

188

1,645

226

2,063

16

94

261

371

114

912

1,026

106

8

1,463

5,760

55

7,286

9

713

5,310

10

6,042

17

2,176

11,070

65

13,328

63

680

1,020

3

174

1,700

212

2,089

23

94

280

397

122

874

996

59

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos &

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors. 7 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo,

Sunburst, and Honey varieties only.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,299.0

78,736.0

4,601.0

730.0

3,022.0

1,368.0

9,420.0

61,700.0

44,945.0

2,915.0

13,840.0

1,082.0

595.0

110.0

1,344.0

1.3

221.0

73,404.0

2,344.0

13,483.1

13,304.0

179.1

1,365.4

21.1

1,406.1

337.5

246.0

1,275.0

14.6

88.6

64.2

1,107.6

95.6

43,464.0

14.2

4,688.0

71,139.0

6,528.0

63,342.0

23,578.0

39,764.0

2,224.0

620.0

2,997.0

339.0

7,798.0

343.0

52,839.0

36,541.0

2,869.0

13,429.0

1,068.0

583.0

107.0

1,312.0

1.2

212.0

72,321.0

2,197.0

12,058.0

11,880.0

178.0

1,347.9

996.8

416.2

15.6

1,346.9

328.5

237.0

5.9

0.2

28.7

78.2

1,250.3

14.3

84.7

59.3

1,092.0

15.8

92.4

0.4

14.0

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.9

142.2

16.2

2.48

3.24

2.03

65.0

18.5

6,645

27.3

52.7

10.4

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.7

1,416

17.9

723

3,159

949

1,286

33.4

1,213

725

719

1,157

22.7

34.7

1,997

1,115

1,672

1,584

1,030

1,470

37,500

1,903

89

367

282

288

324

377

113

172

274

276,087

10,113,887

105,864

157,123

76,307

80,816

144,649

11,450

199,157

9,254

411,237

3,552

2,336,526

1,707,069

96,637

532,820

1,512,250

6,694.0

10,426

77,372

4,144,150

1,139

272,555

2,417,565

2,665,226

18,224.0

17,795.0

429.0

30,605

34,578

831,204

174

22,515

5,202

2,442

673

8,700

6,000

54,565.1

6,924

459,045

4,027

24,433

19,199

411,386

1,778

15,921

5,000

3,840

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

 Ton

 "

 "

 "

 "

 "

 "

 1,000 Lbs

 Ton

 Lb

 Ton

 "

 Lbs

 1,000 Lbs

 Ton

 "

 "

 Lb

 Ton

 Lb

 "

 Ton

 Gal

2,424

1

801

12,374

97

420

70

8,525.4

90.0

19,500.0

7,339.0

103.0

45,900.0

2,574.9

868.5

172.0

15.7

1,090,000

19.5

172,900

303,000

282.0

1,393

2,063

1,026

11,545

106

371

59

9,014.6

97.9

22,000.0

6,477.9

118.0

43,000.0

2,523.1

923.1

176.0

16.9

1,020,000

35.0

262,200

116,000

325.0

1,239

2,089

996

13,328

59

397

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2 Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,144,450

31,863,670

1,861,980

295,420

1,222,970

553,620

3,812,180

24,969,370

18,188,790

1,179,670

5,600,910

437,870

240,790

44,520

543,900

530

89,440

29,705,860

948,590

5,456,480

5,384,000

72,480

552,560

8,540

569,030

136,580

99,550

515,980

5,910

35,860

25,980

448,230

38,690

17,589,450

5,750

1,897,190

28,789,240

2,641,820

25,633,870

9,541,780

16,092,090

900,030

250,910

1,212,860

137,190

3,155,770

138,810

21,383,410

14,787,780

1,161,060

5,434,580

432,210

235,930

43,300

530,950

490

85,790

29,267,590

889,100

4,879,750

4,807,720

72,030

545,480

403,390

168,440

6,310

545,080

132,940

95,910

2,390

60

11,600

31,650

505,980

5,790

34,280

24,000

441,920

6,390

37,390

170

5,670

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.17

8.92

36.35

5.56

7.25

4.56

2.33

1.03

7.45

1.71

3.31

23.21

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.67

1.59

1.12

0.81

3.54

1.06

1.44

2.25

1.36

0.81

0.81

1.30

50.90

77.76

2.24

1.25

1.87

1.77

1.15

1.65

42.03

2.13

0.10

41.15

31.56

32.33

36.29

42.23

0.13

19.31

30.74

6,011,080

256,904,560

96,038,210

142,539,590

69,224,550

73,315,040

2,099,570

259,680

9,033,610

235,060

10,445,900

3,222,320

63,589,820

46,458,800

2,630,030

14,500,980

685,950

6,072,690

264,830

35,100

1,879,750

520

123,630

65,795,340

1,208,930

3,967,810

3,874,400

93,400

27,764,390

31,368,630

377,030

7,890

1,021,260

235,960

110,770

30,530

3,950

2,720

24,750

3,140

20,821,930

182,660

1,108,260

870,850

18,660,160

810

722,160

2,270

174,180

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2004 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2002 2003 2004

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,199,020

910

726,650

11,225,500

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,867,060

81,680

8,850

6,657,830

93,440

20,820

1,167,960

787,840

156,040

14,200

494,420

17,690

78,430

137,440

255,830

6,960

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

96,160

336,570

53,520

4,088,950

88,800

9,980

5,876,650

107,050

19,500

1,144,460

837,380

159,660

15,330

462,660

31,750

118,930

52,620

294,840

6,190

1,895,110

903,560

12,090,960

53,520

360,150

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 12 NASS, USDA

January Weather Summary

The coldest weather in many years gripped the Northeast, accompanied by occasional snowfall in the northern

Mid-Atlantic States and relentless snow squalls downwind of the Great Lakes. While bitterly cold conditions

were persistent in the Northeast, cold air made only two significant surges across the remainder of the United

States. Across most of the Plains, the most impressive cold outbreak struck from January 4-6, followed by the

Midwest’s coldest spell toward month’s end. On the Plains, significant precipitation was confined to a few

relatively small geographic areas. Much-needed precipitation, mostly rain, spread onto the southern Plains from

January 15-17, followed by a major snow storm across the east-central Plains on January 25-26. Farther north,

the last week of January featured heavy snow in northeastern Montana and parts of North Dakota. However,

mostly dry conditions persisted on the High Plains from eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into

southern Montana, leaving a portion of the wheat crop regularly exposed to gusty winds and temperature

fluctuations. In contrast, heavy rain soaked the Ohio Valley early in the month, causing some flooding in

lowlands planted to winter wheat. Elsewhere in the eastern Corn Belt, soil moisture remained adequate to locally

excessive. Farther west, however, unfavorably dry conditions persisted across the northwestern Corn Belt,

although late-month snowfall provided beneficial moisture. Meanwhile, January precipitation was well below

normal from the Delta to the southern Atlantic region, although the combination of cool weather and sporadic

showers limited stress on pastures and winter grains. January rainfall was heavier in the western Gulf Coast

region, while late-month downpours reduced irrigation demands in Florida’s winter agricultural areas. In the

West, mild, tranquil weather prevailed for most of the month, following some early-January storminess. 

However, cold air remained trapped in many snow-covered valleys across the Intermountain West, resulting in

persistently cold, foggy weather and air-stagnation problems. Prospects for winter grains continued to improve

in the Northwest, where widespread precipitation and a late-month warming trend melted snow and boosted soil

moisture reserves.

January temperatures averaged as much as 5 degrees F above normal on the central and southern High Plains

and across the south-central United States. In contrast, readings approached 5 degrees F below normal in

eastern Montana and western North Dakota, and were slightly below normal across the northern Plains, northern

Corn Belt, and southern Atlantic States. Even more impressively cold weather was noted in parts of the

Intermountain West, where temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F below normal in some locations, and the

Northeast, where readings ranging from 5 to 10 degrees F below normal were widespread.

January Crop Summary

Along the Atlantic Coast, temperatures were mostly below normal throughout the month, while precipitation was

light to moderate. Late in the month, a series of Arctic cold fronts brought snow and ice to the Northeast and

middle Atlantic regions. Freezing temperatures reached into northern Florida, but missed the citrus-growing

regions of central and southern Florida.

Across the Corn Belt, temperatures were below normal through most of the month, though record high

temperatures visited the western areas of the region toward mid-month, melting much of the protective snow

cover on winter wheat fields. However, this snow cover was quickly replenished with snowfall late in the month. 

Precipitation for the month was above normal in the Ohio Valley, but below normal across the western and

northern Corn Belt.

Light to moderate rain fell in the Southeast and Mississippi Delta and temperatures were mostly below normal. 

Freezing temperatures reached as far south as the Gulf Coast on several occasions.

In the Great Plains, conditions remained mostly dry throughout the month. Other than a mid-month spell of

moderate to heavy rainfall in Texas and Oklahoma, only light, widely scattered precipitation fell in the region. 

Mild temperatures around the middle of the month melted snow cover in the northern and central parts of the

region, causing some concern for winter wheat as bitterly cold temperatures visited the region late in the month.

Temperatures in the Rocky Mountains were below normal early in the month, but warmed up toward mid-month. 

Temperatures stayed above normal in the northern parts of the region through month’s end, but dropped back to

below normal in the central and southern areas. Across the central and southern portions of the region,

precipitation was light and scattered. However, the northern areas of the region received widespread light to

moderate precipitation in the second half of the month.

In the Pacific Northwest, rain and snowfall were moderate to heavy along the coastal areas, but lighter in the

crop-producing areas farther inland. Average temperatures were below normal early in the month, but rose to
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 13 NASS, USDA

above normal in the second half of the month. Snow cover was adequate to protect winter wheat throughout the

month.

The Great Basin was mostly dry throughout the month, with below normal temperatures. In California,

temperatures were near normal, with little rainfall except in the northwest part of the State.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2003 is estimated at 34.6 million tons, up 1 percent

from last month but 3 percent below last year. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are

estimated at 996,800 for the 2003 crop year, 3 percent less than last year’s harvested area. Yield is estimated at

34.7 tons per acre, 0.2 ton above January but the same as the 2002 crop.

Estimates for all states, except Florida, are carried forward from January. Florida’s yield, at 40.0 tons per acre,

is 0.5 ton above the January estimate, 1.7 tons above 2002, and the highest since 1998. Production in Florida is

estimated at 17.6 million tons for the 2003 crop year, 1 percent above the January estimate but slightly below

2002. The Florida harvest was active throughout January despite cold, wet weather in the second half of the

month.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2003-04 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.09 million tons, unchanged from the

January 1 forecast but 1 percent above the previous season. Florida’s grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at

40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 3 percent above last season’s final utilization. The white grapefruit

forecast is unchanged at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons) but 1 percent below last season. The size and drop

survey indications are final and unchanged from the January forecasts. However, results indicate that fruit size

is smaller and droppage is above average when compared to the October indications. The colored grapefruit

forecast, at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), remains unchanged but 7 percent above last season’s final

utilization. The growth pattern is similar to last season when sizes were above normal early in the season and

then leveled off. Droppage rates are above normal levels. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts

are carried forward from the January forecasts.

Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 397,000 tons, down 9 percent from the January 1

forecast but up 7 percent from last season’s final utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop, at

5.90 million boxes (280,000 tons), is down 12 percent from last month but 7 percent above last season’s

utilization of 5.50 million boxes. The reduction was made in the early maturing varieties. The late maturing

Honey variety component of the forecast is unchanged. Harvest of the early tangerine varieties slowed as fruit

began to dry out and became unusable for fresh shipments. Honey tangerine harvest is underway. Average fruit

size is larger than the 10-season average and droppage is expected to be slightly less than average. Arizona and

California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from January.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2003-04 tangelo forecast, at 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), is unchanged from January

but 45 percent less than last season’s utilized production and the smallest harvest since the 1965-66 season. 

Over half of the crop has been harvested as of February 1 but harvest activity is declining rapidly.

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged

from January but 8 percent above last season’s final utilization. If attained, the crop would be the third lowest

since the freeze affected 1989-90 harvest. Fruit droppage and size are below average this season.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.64 million pounds for January, 21 percent higher

than December but 8 percent below January 2003. Area in crop totaled 2,210 acres, unchanged from last month

but 6 percent more than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,345 acres, unchanged from December but

11 percent lower than a year ago. Weather conditions were variable during the month of January. Soil moisture

has been adequate in non-irrigated orchards with the majority of rainfall occurring in the first and last weeks of

the month.

Florida Citrus: Weather patterns over Florida’s citrus producing areas were generally typical for January with

cool nights and moderate day temperatures. However, several cold fronts passed through the State, each

bringing varying amounts of rainfall and low morning temperatures ranging from the mid to low 30's in some

locations and mid 40's in others. Moderate frost was reported on several mornings in northern locations. No

tree damage or fruit loss was reported. High temperatures of the cold fronts were generally in the 50's. 

Following the cold fronts, low temperatures were in the 50's. High temperatures warmed to the 70's and some

days to the low 80's. Rainfall patterns were typical with most occurring prior to the passage of a cold front. 

Rainfall was prevalent the second and last week of January. One reporting station measured 1.8 inches of
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 14 NASS, USDA

rainfall in the second week. Rainfall amounts up to 1.5 inches occurred the last week of January as a slow

moving low pressure system crossed over the State.

Picking of early-midseason oranges peaked in January when weekly harvest reached over 9 million boxes in a

2-week period. Navel orange harvest decreased during the month and shipments were cut short by

crystallization in larger sizes. Small amounts of Valencia oranges were harvested primarily for fresh shipments. 

Grapefruit harvest for fresh shipments increased throughout January while processing harvest experienced an

increase near the end of the month. Harvest of Sunburst tangerines decreased as the harvest of Honey tangerines

increased. Excellent fruit sizes and color were reported for the Honey tangerine variety. Tangelo harvest neared

completion and Temple harvest for fresh and processing usage was heavy.

California Citrus: Rains slowed harvest of Navel oranges and other citrus fruit. Ice marks were noted in many

navel orange groves but the fruit did not suffer internal damage. Mandarin picking began winding down. 

Lemon harvest continued. Grapefruit, tangerines, Satsumas, Clementines, and pummelos were also harvested.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities, including pruning, grafting, cultivating,

and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Ground preparations were underway for young trees

as weather permitted. Removal of old, unproductive, or unprofitable orchards and vineyards continued. Buds on

stone fruit trees showed earlier than normal signs of swelling. Some tree fruit growers began placement of

pheromone dispersal devices to disrupt the mating cycles of insect pests. Pruning, cane tying, and brush

shredding continued in wine, raisin, and table grape vineyards. Foliar fertilizer and scale treatments were

applied to cherry trees in the San Joaquin Valley. Strawberry plants showed new growth in many locations. 

New strawberry fields were planted in the Kerman district. Zutanos and Hass avocado varieties were harvested

and packed as maturity advanced. Olive groves were pruned and suckered. Cold weather insured dormancy in

pistachio orchards.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 15 NASS, USDA

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and

the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage

surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct

grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts

objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to

prepare the published February 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary

released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing

season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made

for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you

exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.0 percent. This means that chances are two

out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more

than 4.3 percent, or 4.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence

level) that the difference will not exceed 7.4 percent, or 7.0 percent excluding freeze seasons.

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

342,000 tons (341,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 18,000 tons to 745,000 tons (18,000 tons to

745,000 tons, excluding freezes). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times

and above 14 times (below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not

imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2004 16 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to

contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Jim Smith - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202 )720-2127

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 10, 2004.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of

race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family

status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for

communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET

Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building,

1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is

an equal opportunity provider and employer.

ACCESS TO REPORTS!!

For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services:

INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to

the NASS Home Page at: www.usda.gov/nass/. Select “Today’s Reports” or Publications and then Reports

Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject.

E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION

All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS

Home Page at www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which

takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and

follow the instructions. 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS

CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)

Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900

(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services,

contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:

nass@nass.usda.gov.
Ensuring a Healthy Food Supply

February 19-20, 2004

 Crystal Gateway

 Marriott Hotel

 Arlington, Virginia

Shoppers demand affordable food that’ssafe, healthy

and right for their family’s diet. Foreign consumers,

too, have high standards for American-grown foods.

Meeting their expectations poses challenges for

farmers and ranchers, the food industry and

government.

At Agricultural Outlook Forum 2004, you will hear

about the latest developments in food safety, health

concerns and innovative products. The program also

features in-depth analysis of 2004 commodity

planting, trade and market prospects. And you will

receive new 10-year commodity projections from

USDA.

Networking opportunities abound at this popular

event. Register online today. For program updates,

send your name and e-mail address to

agforum@oce.usda.gov.

 www.usda.gov/oce agforum@oce.usda.gov (877) 891-2208 toll free