Cr Pr 2-2 (3-03)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released March 11, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Virtually Unchanged from February

The U.S. all orange March 1 forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from the

February 1 forecast but 9 percent below last season’s final utilization. Florida’s all orange forecast is

unchanged at 199 million boxes (8.96 million tons) but 13 percent below the previous season. Early and

midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 113 million boxes (5.09 million tons), unchanged from last

month but 12 percent below the previous season. The harvest of the early and midseason varieties is nearly

complete. Florida’s Valencia forecast is unchanged at 86.0 million boxes (3.87 million tons) but 16 percent

below last season’s final utilization. Average fruit size is the largest on record since 1960. Loss from

droppage remains above the 10 season average.

California’s all orange forecast is 62.0 million boxes (2.33 million tons), up 2 percent from the January

forecast and 11 percent above last season. Valencia oranges are forecast at 22.0 million boxes (825,000 tons),

up 5 percent from the January forecast but unchanged from last season’s final utilization. California

conducted an objective measurement survey and a grower survey for the March 1 forecast. The Arizona and

Texas all orange and California’s navel orange production forecasts are carried forward from the January

forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is lowered from 1.57 to 1.55 gallons per

box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is projected at 1.49 gallons per box, down from

1.50 in February. The Valencia portion was lowered to 1.65 gallons per box from 1.67. All projections of

yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on March 11, 2003.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................ 5

Crop Comments ....................................................................... 14

Crop Summary ......................................................................... 6

Information Contacts ................................................................... 17

Papayas ............................................................................... 4

Reliability ............................................................................ 16

Sugarcane ............................................................................. 4

Weather Maps ........................................................................ 12

Weather Summary ..................................................................... 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2001-2002

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

445.0

19.3

460.0

46.0

970.3

20.0

1.5

35.0

1.0

57.5

465.0

20.8

495.0

47.0

1,027.8

441.0

23.6

465.0

43.8

973.4

20.0

1.5

30.0

1.2

52.7

461.0

25.1

495.0

45.0

1,026.1

35.1

97.3

29.0

42.1

33.8

35.9

36.2

29.0

25.0

31.5

35.1

92.9

29.0

41.7

33.7

38.4

94.3

29.0

37.7

35.2

38.3

39.1

29.0

30.0

32.8

38.4

91.0

29.0

37.5

35.1

15,620

1,878

13,340

1,937

32,775

718

54

1,015

25

1,812

16,338

1,932

14,355

1,962

34,587

16,934

2,225

13,485

1,651

34,295

766

59

870

36

1,731

17,700

2,284

14,355

1,687

36,026

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the 2002 Crop Production Summary.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2002 2003

2002 2003 2002 2003

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jan

Feb

2,575

2,555

2,080

2,085

1,830

1,925

1,505

1,510

3,345

3,310

3,865

3,775

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted March 1, 2003 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL 7

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus 8

 FL

480

35,500

128,000

2,000

165,980

420

19,000

95,300

235

114,955

900

54,500

223,300

2,235

280,935

1,250

18,700

27,300

250

6,300

46,000

7,200

59,750

650

2,200

5,600

8,450

3,600

22,600

26,200

2,100

40

270

34,000

128,000

1,530

163,800

250

22,000

102,000

210

124,460

520

56,000

230,000

1,740

288,260

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

6,000

46,700

5,900

58,760

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

19,000

21,800

2,150

30

200

40,000

113,000

1,500

154,700

250

22,000

86,000

180

108,430

450

62,000

199,000

1,680

263,130

1,400

16,000

24,000

100

5,600

40,000

5,600

51,300

450

2,500

5,000

7,950

2,800

23,000

25,800

2,400

18

1,331

5,760

85

7,194

16

713

4,288

10

5,027

34

2,044

10,048

95

12,221

56

795

1,160

8

211

1,955

288

2,462

24

83

266

373

137

859

996

95

2

10

1,275

5,760

65

7,110

9

825

4,590

9

5,433

19

2,100

10,350

74

12,543

70

803

1,182

5

201

1,985

236

2,427

23

83

314

420

106

722

828

97

1

8

1,500

5,085

64

6,657

9

825

3,870

8

4,712

17

2,325

8,955

72

11,369

63

680

1,020

3

188

1,700

224

2,115

17

94

238

349

106

874

980

108

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early

Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors. 7 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst,

and Honey varieties only. 8 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,073.0

79,054.0

5,005.0

450.0

3,240.0

1,395.0

9,580.0

60,358.0

41,735.0

2,909.0

15,714.0

1,459.0

785.0

191.0

1,358.0

3.4

219.0

73,758.0

2,585.0

13,962.6

13,719.0

243.6

1,427.9

21.5

1,922.1

302.7

221.0

1,310.8

15.8

87.8

63.0

1,144.2

97.2

44,246.0

15.6

4,135.0

69,313.0

7,490.0

64,497.0

23,135.0

41,362.0

2,098.0

220.0

3,207.0

286.0

7,299.0

352.0

45,817.0

29,651.0

2,703.0

13,463.0

1,275.0

704.0

175.0

1,296.7

3.1

196.0

72,160.0

2,205.0

12,413.3

12,171.0

242.3

1,361.0

1,026.1

430.3

11.6

1,726.9

279.7

209.0

6.2

0.3

29.3

80.2

1,276.5

15.7

86.1

59.9

1,114.8

18.0

83.3

0.4

15.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

54.9

130.0

14.0

2.34

3.19

1.86

56.8

12.5

6,578

24.4

50.7

9.5

35.3

38.5

29.4

29.3

1,218

17.9

705

2,561

1,461

1,520

37.8

1,133

663

651

1,286

20.2

35.1

2,068

1,414

1,736

1,517

1,200

1,370

45,000

1,990

85

363

268

271

309

374

108

150

268

226,873

9,007,659

104,979

150,962

73,824

77,138

119,132

2,755

210,960

6,985

369,758

3,360

1,616,441

1,142,802

79,450

394,189

1,552,520

6,419.3

12,569

123,450

3,320,490

4,530

297,980

2,729,709

2,497,236

17,145.0

16,496.0

649.0

27,550

36,026

889,632

164

29,974

4,242

2,508

457

8,500

14,400

58,336.6

6,818

463,214

4,206

23,294

18,486

417,228

1,942

12,498

6,100

4,153

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2001 2002 2003

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,462

2

996

12,221

95

373

56

9,428.7

82.5

28,000.0

6,569.6

134.0

55,000.0

2,433.3

1,001.8

150.0

21.2

830,000

49.5

338,500

161,000

305.0

1,049

2,427

1

828

12,543

97

420

70

8,592.1

90.1

19,000.0

7,144.0

99.0

45,500.0

2,575.4

911.5

158.0

15.9

1,060,000

18.0

178,400

300,000

282.0

1,356

2,115

980

11,369

108

349

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,052,990

31,992,360

2,025,470

182,110

1,311,200

564,540

3,876,930

24,426,280

16,889,740

1,177,240

6,359,300

590,440

317,680

77,300

549,570

1,380

88,630

29,849,130

1,046,120

5,650,520

5,551,940

98,580

577,860

8,700

777,850

122,500

89,440

530,470

6,390

35,530

25,500

463,050

39,340

17,905,910

6,310

1,673,390

28,050,280

3,031,130

26,101,290

9,362,500

16,738,790

849,040

89,030

1,297,840

115,740

2,953,830

142,450

18,541,680

11,999,460

1,093,880

5,448,340

515,980

284,900

70,820

524,760

1,250

79,320

29,202,430

892,340

5,023,540

4,925,480

98,060

550,780

415,250

174,130

4,690

698,860

113,190

84,580

2,510

130

11,860

32,460

516,590

6,350

34,840

24,240

451,150

7,280

33,710

170

6,270

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

2.95

8.16

31.42

5.25

7.15

4.18

2.04

0.70

7.37

1.53

3.18

21.40

2.37

2.59

1.98

1.97

1.36

1.12

0.79

2.87

1.64

1.70

2.54

1.27

0.74

0.73

1.44

45.38

78.70

2.32

1.58

1.95

1.70

1.35

1.54

50.44

2.23

0.10

40.67

30.03

30.32

34.59

41.95

0.12

16.82

30.03

4,939,580

228,805,080

95,235,350

136,950,420

66,972,010

69,978,420

1,729,200

62,480

9,568,990

177,430

9,392,290

3,048,140

43,992,310

31,101,970

2,162,270

10,728,070

704,210

5,823,490

319,270

56,000

1,506,150

2,050

135,160

74,290,500

1,132,730

3,732,880

3,591,580

141,300

24,992,940

32,682,240

403,530

7,440

1,359,600

192,410

113,760

20,730

3,860

6,530

26,460

3,090

21,011,030

190,780

1,056,600

838,510

18,925,140

880

566,900

2,770

188,380

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2001 2002 2003

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,233,490

1,810

903,560

11,086,700

86,180

338,380

50,800

4,276,790

74,810

12,700

5,959,840

121,560

24,950

1,103,730

908,800

136,080

19,230

376,480

44,910

153,540

73,030

276,690

5,240

2,201,740

910

751,150

11,378,820

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,897,310

81,770

8,620

6,480,930

89,810

20,640

1,168,180

826,850

143,340

14,380

480,810

16,330

80,920

136,080

255,830

6,780

1,918,700

889,040

10,313,780

97,980

316,610

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 12 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 13 NASS, USDA

February Weather and Crop Summary

Following an uncharacteristically tranquil January, much of the Nation experienced a return to stormy weather

in February. Specifically, wet weather redeveloped across the South (excluding southern Florida and portions

of the southern High Plains), while some locations from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic States

and southern New England endured record-setting snowfall totals. Southern wetness slowed or halted spring

planting preparations from the western Gulf Coast region to the southern Atlantic States, including the Delta. 

Farther north, however, drought gradually intensified in parts of the Midwest, primarily from northern

Missouri to Lower Michigan. Meanwhile, the Plains received varying amounts of precipitation. Dryness

persisted across northern Texas, but late-month snowfall on the central Plains boosted soil moisture reserves

and insulated the winter wheat crop from a late-season cold snap. On the northern Plains, however, only a

shallow snow cover protected wheat from temperatures as low as -30 degrees F. Elsewhere, areas from the

Southwest to the Rockies received beneficial precipitation that boosted topsoil moisture and mountain snow

packs, but provided only limited relief from long-term drought. Much of the West faces water-supply

concerns due to the combination of already low reservoir levels, near to below normal snow packs, and poor

spring and summer runoff prospects.

Monthly temperatures were within a few degrees of normal west of the Rockies and up to 4 degrees F above

normal in southern Florida, but significantly below normal elsewhere. The coldest areas, the Plains, Midwest,

and Northeast, where monthly readings ranged from 2 to 10 degrees F below normal maintained stress on

livestock.

February Crop Summary

Seasonally heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest alleviated dry soil conditions in some areas, but were

not as helpful in others. Soil moisture was generally adequate throughout California with some growers

supplementing with irrigation. Abnormally dry soil conditions remained throughout much of the Southwest,

Rocky Mountains, and Great Plains regions. Snowpack measurements generally were greater than during

2002, but still ranged from below normal to significantly below normal in most locations. Low reservoir

levels and water shortages remain a concern. Soil moisture was adequate to surplus across a wide swath from

Texas, through the Tennessee Valley, to New England. 

Winter wheat emergence was aided by warmer temperatures and adequate rainfall in eastern Washington,

while some western fields were flooded by heavy precipitation. Continued mild weather allowed some winter

wheat to emerge from dormancy in Idaho. By mid-month, rainfall in California restricted fieldwork, but was

beneficial to wheat, barley, oats, and alfalfa. The season’s first cutting of alfalfa hay took place in early

February. Rainfall late in the month slowed the picking of citrus fruit, which helped packinghouses clear

inventories. Winter pastures were in good condition throughout the month with the best conditions reported

in the northern half of the State. Vegetable planting was active, and many fields thrived in the warm weather.

Cool weather in Florida slowed the development of vegetables and pastures while dry, windy conditions

lowered soil moisture supplies early in the month. Significant rains fell around the middle and end of the

month, replenishing soil moisture in some areas. The citrus harvest was active for early and midseason

oranges. Sugarcane harvesting continued in the Everglades. 

Very dry subsoil conditions remain across the northern Corn Belt. Rainfall in the southern Corn Belt helped

alleviate soil moisture deficits, with most locations now rated dry to adequate. Iowa reported an average of

1 inch of snowcover. Illinois and Indiana experienced extreme cold weather mid-month. 

In the Valley region of Texas, harvest of sugarcane, citrus, and vegetables occurred, and planting began for

cotton, corn, and sorghum. Deep-breaking occurred in some areas, but fieldwork was nonexistent in much of

the State due to a barrage of snow, rain, and ice. Corn producers were delayed in land preparation and

planting was well behind average. The adverse conditions have stressed livestock in Texas and Oklahoma,

forcing farmers and ranchers to feed extra amounts of hay. 

In South Dakota, February brought some periods of cold weather and snowfall, but most of the State

experienced continuing mild winter weather. With dry soil conditions and little snowcover, there was concern

for the condition of winter crops. Minnesota conditions have been relatively mild with some cold weather

and minimal snowcover.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 14 NASS, USDA

In North Carolina, wet and cold weather, combined with poor pasture conditions, increased hay and feed

grain demands for livestock operations. Onion planting in Georgia was behind schedule due to continued wet

weather.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2002 is estimated at 36.0 million tons, up slightly

from the February forecast and 4 percent above last year’s estimate. Acres harvested and to be harvested for

sugar and seed are estimated at 1.03 million for the 2002 crop year, slightly less than last year's harvested

area. Yield is estimated at 35.1 tons per acre, 1.4 tons above 2001. In Florida, acres harvested and to be

harvested for sugar and seed are down 1 percent from last year’s record high acreage. Recent rains in Florida

caused only minor harvesting delays.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.78 million pounds for February, down 2 percent

from last month but up 14 percent from February 2002. Area in crop totaled 2,085 acres and area harvested

totaled 1,510 acres, both virtually unchanged from last month but down 18 and 22 percent from last year,

respectively. Weather conditions were variable over the papaya producing areas. Rainfall during February

replenished soil moisture levels in non-irrigated orchards.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.12 million tons, unchanged from the

February 1 forecast but 13 percent lower than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast remains

unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 14 percent below last season. The all white

grapefruit forecast remains at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), 15 percent below last season. The colored

grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous

season. Fruit size is average, unchanged from February. Fresh utilization is ahead of the previous 2 seasons

for colored grapefruit but behind for white. Movement was more than 1 million boxes per week during

February for processed fruit (packinghouse eliminations and direct to processor). Arizona, California, and

Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried froward from the January forecasts.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2002-03 tangelo forecast is 2.40 million boxes (108,000 tons), unchanged from the

previous month but 12 percent more than last season’s utilized production. Fresh shipments continue to

decline from previous seasons, while processed utilization is increasing.

Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 349,000 tons, unchanged from the February 1

forecast but 17 percent below last season’s utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop forecast is

unchanged at 5.00 million boxes (238,000 tons) but 24 percent lower than last season’s utilization. Harvest

of the early varieties is virtually complete. Harvest continues for the late season Honey variety. Fruit sizes

remain at the 10 season average. Droppage is below average. The 2002-03 Florida tangerine forecast only

includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and Dancy varieties

as in previous seasons. This program change was implemented because of the declassification of Robinson

and Dancy tangerines by the Florida Citrus Commission. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are

carried forward from the January forecasts.

Temples: Florida’s Temples are forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season,

unchanged from February but 10 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would equal the freeze

affected 1989-90 crop as the second smallest on record. Average fruit size continues to exceed the previous

10 season series. Fruit droppage is above average. Fresh shipments are at the lowest level on record. Most

of the remaining fruit will be harvested for processing use.

K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has

been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have been discontinued.

Florida Citrus: February was generally very dry with mild temperatures. Most areas reported half of their

normal rainfall. Growers and caretakers irrigated to keep groves and trees in good condition. During the last

two weeks of February, new growth and buds started showing on younger trees. Older trees were also

showing buds. Harvest of early and midseason oranges declined during the month with very little of the early

fruit remaining. Harvesting of Valencia oranges for both fresh and processing began. Some growers moved

into Valencia groves to keep pickers active. Fresh grapefruit and Honey tangerine shipments were down the

first of the month but became more active. Tangelo and early tangerine harvests are virtually complete. 

Caretakers have been very busy cutting cover crops for fire protection and to help generate new growth for the
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 15 NASS, USDA

up coming bloom cycle. Hedging and topping in harvested groves were being reported for all areas. Dead

trees are being removed and burned in all areas. Pre-bloom fertilizing and spraying are almost complete.

California Citrus: Navel orange harvest continued throughout February. Fungicides were applied in some

areas. Harvest of early variety Valencia oranges began mid February in some groves. Grapefruit harvest was

ongoing in the desert and in the San Joaquin Valley. Lemons and Minneola tangelos were picked throughout

the month.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating,

irrigating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Bee hives were in place for pollination

but were only active as weather conditions allowed. Bloom in peach, plum, nectarine, and apricot orchards

became more widespread due to plentiful sunshine and warm daytime temperatures. To date no damage from

cold overnight temperatures has been reported. Bloom spray applications began in a few early variety stone

fruit orchards. Peach orchards were treated for San Jose scale. Orchard and vineyard removal continued

while brush was shredded and disced in active orchards. Stumps and brush were piled for burning or

chipping. Open ground was prepared for planting of new tree fruit orchards. Strawberry plants were

progressing well and nearly ready to bloom in some locations by month’s end. Some blueberry plantings

were covered with plastic to induce bud break and earlier blooming. Cherry buds started to swell by the end

of the month. Almond orchards were in bloom. Fungicides were applied to protect the blossoms from

disease and insect pests.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 16 NASS, USDA

Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in

Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number

of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size

measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of

production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis

in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in

September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed

for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and

packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States

submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB

uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be

made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in

September’s Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the

end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and

processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the

"Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The

deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a

percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year

period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square

Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast

relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are

not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.3 percent. 

However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 3.0 percent. This

means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or

below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances

are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.7 percent, or

5.3 percent excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have

averaged 234,000 tons (220,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons. 

The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times

(below 5 times and above 10 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that

the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2003 17 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234

Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum,

 Sugar Crops (202) 690-8140

Terry O’Connor - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-4288

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 10, 2003.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of

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means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s

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To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten

Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). 

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