Cr Pr 2-2 (2-02)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released February 8, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down 1 Percent

The U.S. all orange February 1 forecast for the 2001-02 crop is 12.4 million tons, down 1 percent from the

January 1 forecast but virtually unchanged from last season’s final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is

decreased to 228 million boxes (10.3 million tons), 1 percent less than the January 1 forecast but 2 percent

above the previous season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 128 million boxes

(5.76 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous forecast but the same utilization as last season. The

harvest of the early and midseason oranges is nearly three-fourths complete. Dry and warm weather has

increased drop of the unharvested fruit, especially in western areas where most of the unharvested fruit remains. 

Total droppage in the western areas has been above the State average all season and is higher than in the other

four areas of the citrus belt. Florida’s Valencia forecast is 100 million boxes (4.50 million tons), unchanged

from the previous forecast but 5 percent higher than last season’s final utilization. Fruit size continues to be

below average. Loss from droppage is below average. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production

forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield is projected at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees

Brix, unchanged from January’s projection and the same yield as last season. The early and midseason portion

is projected to yield 1.52 gallons per box and the Valencia portion is projected to yield 1.68 gallons per box. 

Both of these yields are the same as projected last month. All projections of yield assume that the processing

relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on February 8, 2002.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Acting Chairperson

Steve D. Wiyatt
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................5

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Crop Summary .........................................................................6

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Papayas ...............................................................................4

Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Sugarcane .............................................................................4

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2000-2001

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

436.0

30.2

465.0

45.5

976.7

18.0

1.8

35.0

0.8

55.6

454.0

32.0

500.0

46.3

1,032.3

446.0

21.4

460.0

44.5

971.9

19.0

1.8

35.0

1.5

57.3

465.0

23.2

495.0

46.0

1,029.2

37.5

78.3

29.7

38.8

35.1

38.4

38.0

29.7

30.0

32.8

37.5

76.0

29.7

38.6

35.0

35.3

89.5

30.0

33.0

33.9

38.3

31.5

30.0

25.0

32.7

35.4

85.0

30.0

32.8

33.8

16,350

2,365

13,811

1,765

34,291

691

68

1,040

24

1,823

17,041

2,433

14,851

1,789

36,114

15,744

1,915

13,800

1,469

32,928

728

57

1,050

38

1,873

16,472

1,972

14,850

1,507

34,801

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the 2001 Crop Production Summary.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2001 2002

2001 2002 2001 2002

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Dec

Jan

2,575

2,690 2,575

1,835

1,870 1,865

3,575

4,930 3,285

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

1999-2000, 2000-2001 and Forecasted February 1, 2002 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 Other 5

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus

 FL

600

40,000

134,000

1,460

176,060

500

24,000

99,000

200

123,700

1,100

64,000

233,000

1,660

299,760

1,950

20,900

31,900

600

450

7,200

53,400

5,930

66,980

850

2,500

7,000

10,350

3,100

19,000

22,100

2,200

110

480

36,000

128,000

2,000

166,480

420

23,000

95,300

235

118,955

900

59,000

223,300

2,235

285,435

1,250

18,700

27,300

250

6,500

46,000

7,200

59,950

650

2,100

5,600

8,350

3,600

22,700

26,300

2,100

40

350

32,000

128,000

1,700

162,050

350

22,000

100,000

200

122,550

700

54,000

228,000

1,900

284,600

1,400

19,000

28,000

200

6,200

47,000

7,300

60,700

650

2,300

6,400

9,350

3,100

22,000

25,100

2,300

30

22

1,500

6,030

62

7,614

19

900

4,455

9

5,383

41

2,400

10,485

71

12,997

88

888

1,356

25

15

241

2,269

237

2,762

32

94

332

458

118

722

840

99

5

18

1,350

5,760

85

7,213

16

862

4,289

10

5,177

34

2,212

10,049

95

12,390

56

795

1,160

8

218

1,955

288

2,469

24

79

266

369

137

863

1,000

95

2

13

1,200

5,760

72

7,045

13

825

4,500

9

5,347

26

2,025

10,260

81

12,392

63

808

1,190

7

208

1,998

292

2,505

24

86

304

414

118

836

954

104

1

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early

Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5 "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01

crop. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

4,967.0

75,752.0

4,403.0

650.0

3,335.0

1,328.0

10,252.0

59,617.0

41,078.0

2,910.0

15,629.0

1,494.0

585.0

45.8

1,543.0

3.7

188.0

74,105.0

2,653.0

15,787.8

15,527.0

260.8

1,371.1

15.9

1,429.9

211.8

201.0

1,267.1

16.8

78.3

60.9

1,111.1

97.9

41,031.0

13.8

4,289.0

68,808.0

6,148.0

63,511.0

23,812.0

39,699.0

1,905.0

580.0

3,314.0

255.0

8,584.0

336.0

48,653.0

31,295.0

2,789.0

14,569.0

1,455.0

578.0

44.2

1,400.5

3.1

177.0

73,000.0

2,580.0

13,810.0

13,551.0

259.0

1,243.7

1,029.2

432.6

7.1

1,243.0

196.8

197.0

6.3

0.4

35.9

78.5

1,241.3

14.0

76.2

58.6

1,092.5

19.5

93.5

0.4

13.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.2

138.2

16.6

2.47

3.37

1.93

61.3

33.2

6,429

27.3

59.9

11.1

40.2

43.5

30.0

35.2

1,374

19.8

930

3,027

1,306

1,365

39.6

1,349

698

687

1,257

20.7

33.8

2,314

1,366

1,572

1,920

1,471

1,210

45,000

1,861

81

358

294

286

309

367

105

154

288

249,590

9,506,840

102,352

156,703

80,266

76,437

116,856

19,250

213,045

6,971

514,524

3,728

1,957,643

1,361,479

83,556

512,608

1,998,515

7,533.0

11,455

41,106

4,239,450

4,050

241,665

2,890,572

3,480,696

20,084.0

19,406.0

678.0

25,754

34,801

1,000,936

97

19,541

3,779

2,898

640

7,600

16,200

66,832.1

6,343

444,766

4,115

21,814

18,110

400,727

2,052

14,355

6,400

3,888

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2002 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2000 2001 2002

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lb

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,762

5

840

12,997

99

458

88

10,663.7

96.9

29,000.0

7,688.0

53.0

54,500.0

2,599.9

967.2

219.0

23.9

703,000

22.5

209,850

243,000

239.0

1,231

2,469

2

1,000

12,390

95

369

56

9,435.2

82.3

28,000.0

6,521.2

134.0

55,000.0

2,437.4

970.8

148.0

20.8

850,000

48.0

315,000

161,000

305.0

1,049

2,505

1

954

12,392

104

414

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2002 crop year. 2 Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2001 2002

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,010,100

30,656,080

1,781,850

263,050

1,349,640

537,430

4,148,880

24,126,400

16,623,860

1,177,650

6,324,900

604,610

236,740

18,530

624,440

1,500

76,080

29,989,550

1,073,640

6,389,160

6,283,620

105,540

554,870

6,430

578,670

85,710

81,340

512,780

6,800

31,690

24,650

449,650

39,620

16,604,840

5,580

1,735,720

27,845,910

2,488,030

25,702,270

9,636,480

16,065,790

770,930

234,720

1,341,140

103,200

3,473,860

135,980

19,689,380

12,664,770

1,128,680

5,895,930

588,820

233,910

17,890

566,770

1,250

71,630

29,542,370

1,044,100

5,588,770

5,483,950

104,810

503,310

416,510

175,090

2,870

503,030

79,640

79,720

2,550

150

14,530

31,770

502,340

5,670

30,840

23,710

442,120

7,890

37,840

180

5,460

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2002 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 10 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 11 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2001 2002 2001 2002

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.13

8.67

37.32

5.53

7.56

4.32

2.20

1.86

7.21

1.72

3.76

24.87

2.71

2.93

2.01

2.37

1.54

1.24

1.04

3.39

1.46

1.53

2.66

1.51

0.78

0.77

1.41

46.42

75.80

2.59

1.53

1.76

2.15

1.65

1.35

50.44

2.09

0.09

40.16

32.94

32.09

34.64

41.11

0.12

17.21

32.28

5,434,180

241,484,860

92,852,170

142,158,570

72,816,090

69,342,480

1,696,160

436,580

9,663,560

177,070

13,069,510

3,381,980

53,278,310

37,053,390

2,274,020

13,950,900

906,510

6,833,820

290,970

18,650

1,922,980

1,840

109,620

78,668,480

1,578,820

4,372,780

4,225,160

147,620

23,363,640

31,570,940

454,020

4,400

886,360

171,410

131,450

29,030

3,450

7,350

30,310

2,880

20,174,250

186,650

989,470

821,460

18,176,670

930

651,130

2,900

176,360

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2002 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 12 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2000 2001 2002

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL)

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,505,640

4,540

762,040

11,790,680

89,810

415,490

79,830

4,836,970

87,910

13,150

6,974,410

48,080

24,720

1,179,290

877,380

198,670

21,680

318,880

20,410

95,190

110,220

216,820

6,150

2,239,840

1,810

907,180

11,240,020

86,180

334,750

50,800

4,279,740

74,630

12,700

5,915,930

121,560

24,950

1,105,590

880,700

134,260

18,870

385,550

43,540

142,880

73,030

276,690

5,240

2,272,500

910

865,450

11,241,830

94,350

375,570

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for

the full 2002 crop year. 2 Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 13 NASS, USDA

January Weather Summary

Precipitation slackened across the Northwest during January, leaving the region’s complete recovery from the

drought of 2000-01 in doubt, despite a 6-week parade of major storm systems in November and December. 

Farther south, a late-January storm system delivered the month’s only significant precipitation in much of the

Four Corners region. The same storm crossed the central and southern Plains and parts of the Corn Belt on

January 30-31, providing much-needed moisture for the Plains’ wheat crop and recharging soil moisture in parts

of the Midwest, but causing serious travel and electrical disruptions due to ice accumulations. The cold air that

helped fuel the late-month storm also left the northern High Plains’ poorly-established, drought-stressed, and

wind-battered winter wheat crop exposed to temperatures as low as -20 degrees F. A patchy snow cover, with

depths generally 2 inches or less, provided little insulation for the northern Plains’ wheat. Ironically, the latemonth cold outbreak quieted winds across the northern High Plains, where chinook (downslope) winds

frequently gusted higher than 40 mph—and occasionally higher than 70 mph—during the first 25 days of

January.

Cool air also spilled into California, bringing several minor to moderate freezes in mid- to late January. On the

coldest mornings—January 23 and 24—low temperatures generally ranged from 24 to 30 degrees F in the San

Joaquin Valley’s citrus areas, accelerating orange harvesting in local cold spots, necessitating freeze-protection

measures in some groves, and slowing winter grain development, but providing beneficial “chill hours” for fruit

and nut trees. Cold air also briefly spread into winter agricultural areas of the Southwest. Farther east, heavy

precipitation was confined to portions of the South, including areas from the Delta to the southern Appalachians. 

While the rain and snow aided previously drought-stressed pastures and winter grains in the southern Atlantic

region, lowland flooding returned to the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas. Following some earlymonth snowfall (mostly January 2-3), nearly all of the South’s heavy rain fell from January 18-25.

January Crop Summary

The year began with a winter storm that brought well below-normal temperatures and a mixture of wintery

precipitation to the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. However, temperatures

quickly rebounded and abnormally warm weather prevailed from the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic Coast

during the remainder of the month. Many areas recorded new record day time highs, and parts of the Corn Belt

and Great Lakes region experienced their warmest January ever. In the Southwest and Pacific Northwest,

abnormally warm weather prevailed early in the month, but temperatures averaged well below-normal after

midmonth. Below-normal precipitation extended drought conditions along parts of the Atlantic Coastal Plain

and large portions of the Great Plains. In the Pacific Northwest, storms frequently produced heavy rain along

the coast and large snow accumulations in the Cascade and Sierra mountains.

Temperatures averaged above-normal in the northern Great Plains, but winter wheat remained dormant despite

periods of record warmth across the region. Heaving and winter kill were virtually non-existent most of the

month, although fields were exposed and vulnerable to wind blown soil and a late-month period of bitterly cold

weather. In parts of the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast, abnormally warm

weather stimulated growth of winter grains and forages most of the month. In Texas, dry weather supported

fieldwork, but limited the response of winter grains and forage crops to favorable temperatures.

Sub-freezing temperatures penetrated into the Southeast early in the month, providing beneficial chill hours for

fruit trees approaching the upcoming bloom period. The cold weather briefly halted growth of winter grains and

forages but sub-freezing temperatures were not sustained long enough to damage the citrus crop. However,

citrus trees experienced minor foliage burn and, in the coldest areas, some new leafy growth was lost. In

southern areas of the Florida peninsula, the sugarcane harvest and work in vegetable fields continued with little

delay.

In California, above-normal temperatures, supported by ample moisture supplies, stimulated development of

winter crops during the first half of the month. However, temperatures averaged well below normal throughout

the Southwest after midmonth. The cold weather slowed growth of winter crops, but nighttime temperatures did

not remain below freezing long enough to seriously damage citrus trees and unharvested fruit. Vegetable

growers ran irrigation systems to protect delicate leafy crops from sub-freezing overnight lows and citrus

growers ran irrigation systems and wind machines to protect fruit from frost damage. Nevertheless, ice marks

and slight freeze damage showed in some citrus varieties.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 14 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2001 is estimated at 34.8 million tons, 4 percent

below last year’s record high of 36.1 million tons. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are

estimated at 1.03 million for the 2001 crop year, slightly less than last year’s harvested acres. Yield is estimated

at 33.8 tons per acre, 1.2 tons below 2000.

In Louisiana, acres harvested for sugar and seed, at 495,000, is 1 percent below last year’s record acreage of

500,000 and is the first year-to-year acreage reduction since 1996. In Florida, acres harvested and to be

harvested for sugar and seed is 2 percent above last year’s level. If realized, Florida’s harvested acreage would

exceed the previous record high of 460,000 acres set in 1999.

Harvest was completed in Louisiana despite rain delays in early January. In Florida, warm, dry weather

supported harvest throughout the month.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2001-02 grapefruit crop for the United States remains at 2.51 million tons,

unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 1 percent higher than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit

forecast continues at 47.0 million boxes (2.00 million tons), the same as last month but 2 percent above last

season’s final utilization. The all white grapefruit forecast is 19.0 million boxes (808,000 tons), unchanged

from January but 2 percent more than the previous season. The all white grapefruit average size equals the

smallest average size in the 10-season series. The droppage factor is at the series average. Harvest is 20 percent

complete. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.19 million tons), the same as the

January 1 forecast, but 3 percent more than the previous season. Average fruit size is smaller than any other

season in the 10-season series. Loss from droppage is slightly above the series average. Harvest is close to

40 percent complete. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from the January

forecasts.

Tangerines: The 2001-02 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 414,000 tons, unchanged from the

January 1 forecast but 12 percent higher than last season’s utilization of 369,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine

forecast is 6.40 million boxes (304,000 tons), the same as last month but 14 percent higher than last season. 

Harvest of the late season Honey variety remains active. The Honeys are larger on average than in any of the

previous 21 seasons except 2. Loss from droppage is slightly below average. Arizona and California tangerine

forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2001-02 tangelo forecast remains at 2.30 million boxes (104,000 tons), unchanged from

the January 1 forecast but 10 percent more than last season’s utilized production. Over three-fourths of the crop

has been harvested as of February 1.

Temples: Florida’s 2001-02 Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), unchanged from January. If

realized, it will be the second smallest crop ever recorded, but 12 percent higher than the record low 1.25 million

boxes (56,000 tons) utilized last season. Average fruit size is smaller than all but 2 of the previous

36 non-freeze seasons. Loss from droppage is lower in only 5 of those 36 seasons, somewhat offsetting the

smaller sizes.

K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2001-02 remains at 30,000 boxes (1,350 tons),

unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 10,000 boxes fewer than last season. If realized, this will be the

smallest crop of record.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.29 million pounds for January, 8 percent less than

last month and 33 percent lower than 2001. Area in crop totaled 2,575 acres, unchanged from last month but

4 percent less than last January. Harvested area, at 1,865 acres, is 2 percent more than last month but virtually

unchanged from a year ago. Weather conditions for January began with frequent sunny periods and light

showers which allowed farmers to catch up on regular field work. However, wet and cloudy weather conditions

in the second half of January hindered normal field operations.

Florida Citrus: The first half of January was very cold. There were two mornings when the temperatures were

below freezing, but they were not low enough long enough to significantly damage the crops. Most colder

locations are planted to early varieties and had been harvested or were picked very soon after the cold nights. 

Caretakers irrigated to keep their groves warm during the cold spell and to maintain good tree condition for the

upcoming bloom. Also, there were several rains that helped protect the current citrus crop and the trees. The
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 15 NASS, USDA

last part of the month was generally dry and unseasonably warm. There were, however, a few isolated rains on

the lower east coast. Growers have been pushing out and burning dead and dying trees. Some replanting is

occurring in the warmer locations.

California Citrus: Citrus growers irrigated and used wind machines to protect citrus fruit from frost damage. 

Ice marks and slight freeze damage showed in some citrus varieties following the cold temperatures. Picking of

navel oranges continued throughout January, but was slowed at times by rainfall, fog, and frost. Pummelo and

Oroblanco grapefruit harvests continued in the desert and the San Joaquin Valley. Picking of lemons occurred

in central and southern California. Harvest of Satsuma, Minneola, and Fairchild tangerines continued.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Typical cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating, and

spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Cold weather during January eased growers’ concerns about the

lack of chilling hours required by most fruit trees. Crews pruned and tied vines in vineyards. Grape growers

cultivated, made herbicide applications, fertilized, and treated for insects. Ground preparation for new plantings

was in progress. Cherry orchards were treated to promote an earlier, more uniform, fruit set. Buds began to

swell in a few early fruit tree varieties. Strawberry nursery stock digging and trimming continued throughout the

month.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 16 NASS, USDA

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which

produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of

fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are

conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer

surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California,

and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the

Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published

February 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September’s Citrus Fruits Summary. 

The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information

from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and

home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1

production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared

percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically

the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current

forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different

from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.8 percent. However, if you exclude

the six freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 4.1 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that

the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.8 percent, or

4.1 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will

not exceed 8.2 percent, or 7.2 percent excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

361,000 tons (332,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 13,000 tons to 745,000 tons (13,000 tons to

745,000 tons, excluding freezes). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and

above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the

February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2002 17 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to

contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Greg Thessen - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-2127

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye, Hay, Sorghum (202) 720-8068

Greg Thessen - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-2127

Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops,

Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Fresh Vegetables, Mushrooms (202) 720-3250

Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288

Jim Smith - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Peas (202) 720-2127

Darin Jantzi - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery (202) 690- 0207

Biz Wallingsford - Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 8, 2002.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of

race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family

status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for

communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s TARGET

Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building,

1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is

an equal opportunity provider and employer.

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For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services:

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All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to

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Sharpen Your Strategy at 

USDA’s 78th Outlook Forum

February 21-22, 2002

Crystal Gateway

Marriott Hotel

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J New Farm Legislation

J Biotech Crops in World Trade

J Protecting Livestock and Crops

J Tracking Crop and Product

 Identity in the Food Chain

J 2002 Commodity Prospects

J Competing in Global Markets

J Climate and Agriculture

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