Potatoes:

Seasonal
Group and
State

Winter l/

Hastings
Other FL
NC
TX
Total

Summer 2/
AL
CA
co
DE
IL
IA l/
MD 1/
MI
MN
Lite)
NE

1,000 Acres
7
12
2
29
9
17
5
90
7.
5.
9
4
4,
1.
2.
12.
7.
6.
3.
2.
3.
1.
7.
9.
89.

2
4
6

oon

MwWWMHOS

e
NMP ERWWHANDNOEMOE A
NOANWWONRTONMONOHY

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal
Group, State, and United States, 1992-94

4.

hNnome

WAMNERUMBEROWOHOONAMDONS

TOM

Production

so-- Cwt ----

200
180
188

155
270
385

180
185
180
200
235

215
180
193

175
270
380

220
200
190
200
250

170
370
325
150
280
195
190
200
300
245
320
180
320

90
240
130
237

21,535

1,190
1,376
2,010
1,380
1.320
280
320
3,120
2.308
1,764
600
840
952
154
1,715
1,980
21,309

1.040
1,512
2,552

419
1,485
7,508

4,680
1,388
3,114
1,060
19,654

639
1,584
2,542

750
1,170

105

322
3,500
2,130
1,508

630

627
1,290

120
1,875
1,760

20,552

See footnotes at end of table.

Crop Production
September 1994

A-20

--C

ontinued

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA



The American-Pima production forecast remains unchanged from August. at

367,000 bales, down 4 percent from 1993’s output. A 5,000 bale production
decrease in Arizona from last month was offset by an increase of 5,000 bales in
California. Yield are expected to average 1,015 pounds per harvested acre, up
48 pounds from last year. Fruit retention in Arizona decreased during the month
due to higher than normal night temperatures. Arizona’s yield is down 50 pounds
from last month. California’s crop is progressing normal to slightly better
than normal and is rated good to excellent, due to continued hot weather during
August. Yields increased 30 pounds from the August forecast.

Ginnings totaled 679.950 running bales prior to September 1, compared with
434,900 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 446,000 running
bales in 1992.

Summer Potatoes: The final forecast of summer potato production fell to

21.2 million cwt, down 2 percent from July but 3 percent above
@ year ago. Harvested area, at 89,300 acres, rose slightly above last year and
4 percent above two years ago. Yields averaged 237 cwt per acre, the same as
expected in July report and 7 cwt above last year. improved yields from
Missouri to California offset losses in northern and Atlantic Coast States.

Rain and a cool summer hurt potatoes in the northern and the Atlantic Coast
States. Flooding in Michigan cost growers several hundred acres of potatoes and
lowered yields in the Saginaw Bay area, (Coo) weather and rain also hurt fields
in Minnesota. New Jersey, Delaware, and Virginia. New Jersey had their wettest
August on record, 4.4 inches above normal.

Record high yields are expected in Nebraska and Colorado. With harvest closing,
Missouri tied their record high yield of two years ago. Hot weather was a
factor in most western States but using irrigation helped maintain good quality.
In California, quality is good and yields are above last year. Harvest should
end about the last of September.

Fall Potatoes, 1993 Final: Production of 1993 fall potatoes reached a record

high 386 million cwt, 2 percent above the previous
record in 1992. Farmers harvested 1.13 million acres, down slightly from a year
earlier. Yields averaged a record high 341 cwt per acre, up 6 cwt from 1992 and
25 cwt above 1991.

All Potatoes, 1993: Final production of potatoes from ali four seasons in 1993

totaled a record high 429 million cwt, up 1 percent from a
year earlier and 3 percent above 1991. Area harvested totaled 1.32 million
acres, stightly above 1992 and 4 percent below 1991. Yields averaged a record
high 326 cwt per acre. 3 cwt above a year earlier and 22 cwt above 1991. Winter
production in 1993 dropped 15 percent, spring potatoes fell 9 percent, and
summer output slipped 4 percent but the large fall crop gained 2 percent to
boost U.S. potato production above last year.

Tobacco: U.S all tobacco production for 1994 is forecasted at 1.54 billion
pounds, down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast and down 4 percent

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-8 NASS, USDA


month allowed the small grains harvest to advance in the Great Plains. The
continued lack of rain delayed winter wheat planting in the West. In late
August, rains fell along the Detta and Gulf Coast region and delayed the rice
harvest. As August ended, soybeans finished setting pods and began dropping
leaves.

Corn: Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 71.8 million acres,

unchanged from last month but 14 percent above last year's flood reduced
acreage. The September Corn objective yield data indicate a record high stalks
per acre count for the 10 corn objective yield States (I]linois, Indiana, Iowa,
Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin).
The September forecasted ears per acre is the highest on record, slightly above
the previous record set in 1992. Ear measurements indicate an ear length
slightly above average.

As of September 4, 92 percent of the Iowa corn crop was reported in good to
excellent condition and 23 percent of the crop was considered mature. Both
stalks and ears are projected at record levels. The ear measurements indicate
that ears are longer than normal and the longest since 1987.

The I]linois corn crop was reported 72 percent good to excellent and 12 percent
mature, 8 points behind average for the September date. The stalk count for
Illinois is the third highest. but the projected ear count would only be
exceeded by the 1992 final ear count. Ear length is above average and the
highest since 1990.

The Nebraska crop was reported 85 percent good to excellent and 14 percent was
reported as mature. The stalk count for Nebraska is the fourth highest as are
the forecasted number of ears. Survey data indicate that the second ear on some
plants did not develop as a result of cool growing conditions. Ear measurements
indicate ears are shorter than average.

The Indiana crop was 67 percent good to excellent. Stalks per acre as well as
ears per acre are the third highest on record. Ear measurements indicate ears
of average length.

The Minnesota crop is reported 83 percent good to excellent and 5 percent was
reported mature, right on the average. Both stalks and ears are projected at
record levels. Ears are only slightly longer than normal but the longest since
1990.

The Ohio crop is reported 71 percent gaad tao excellent, virtually the same as
last month. Five percent of the crop is considered mature, the same as the
average for early September. Stalks per acre are below the past 3 years, but
projected ears per acre would be the second highest. if realized.

Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 635 million bushels, down

4 percent from August 1, but up 12 percent from 1993. Area
for grain remains at 9.30 million acres, down 2 percent from last year. The
expected yield per acre is now forecast at 68.3 bushels compared to 71.1 bushels
a month ago. Reduced prospects in Kansas and Texas is the principal cause for
the decline. This yield forecast is 8.4 bushels per acre higher than 1993.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-4 NASS. USDA


the current production forecast of 9.26 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 5.6 percent or approximately 518 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 9.7 percent or approximately 898 million bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using
corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 321 million bushels. ranging
from 10 million to 885 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply that the
September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
Production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts
10-year Record of
Differences Between Forecast
and Final Estimate
Crop and : : Level ot. ----- +--+ +--+ 22 ee eee eee ee
Unit :Percent:-------------- Quantity No. of Years
:Below: Above
Avg:Smal]:Large:Final:Final

: Percent: Quant::

231: 8

Feed Grains 1/ Mt:

5.0 8.6 ae 0 20 7 3
Corn For Grain Bu: 5.6 9.7 898 ::321 10 885 6 4
Sorghum For Grain Bu: 5.2 8.9 57 :: 40 1 81 6 4
Barley Bu: 4.3 77 30 :: 11 3 35 5 5
All Wheat Bu: 1.3 2.3 54 :: 31 2 91 4 6
Ourum Bu: 5.7 9.8 WOo:: 5 1 12 5 5
Other Spring Bu: 3.5 6.0 360 0:: «19 1 64 4 6
Rice Cwt: 4.1 7.0 130:: 5 0 15 7 3
Soybeans For : tt
Beans Bu: 5.3 9.2 213 :: 84 19 170 6 4
Cotton Bales 2/: 6.8 11,8 2,245 5 1,914 4 6
l/ Corn for Grain, Sorghum for Grain, Oats, and Barley.
2/ Quantity is in thousands of Bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1994 B-13 NASS, USDA


Ourum Wheat: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production
State : :

1993 : 1994 1993 : 1994

“ST y000 Acres. -------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels
ALY: 50 94 90.0 91.0 91.0 4,500 8.554
CA L/ : 40 59 95.0 95.0 95.0 3,800 5,605
MN : 8 39 30.0 30.0 25.0 240 975
MT : 114 178 31.0 31.0 31.0 3,534 5,518
ND : 1,820 2,250 31.0 34.0 34.0 56,420 76,500
SD : 18 19 24.0 27.0 26.0 432 494
US 2,050 2,639 33.6 37.1 37.0 68,926 97,646

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Production

1993: 1994 : 1993 :-------2-e2-2e--2- : 1993 «=: ~(1994

1,000 Acres  ——-------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels --
co ls : 33 42 80.0 82.0 82.0 2,640 3,444
ID t 540 630 80.0 77.0 77.0 43,200 48,510
MN : 2,250 2,550 31.0 37.0 31.0 69,750 79,050
MT : 2,650 3.300 37.0 30.0 30.0 98,050 99,000
NV 1/ : 5 4 80.0 70.0 70.0 400 280
ND : 8,850 9,000 31.0 34.0 33.0 274,350 297,000
OR 1/ : 65 62 60.0 55.0 $5.0 3,900 3.410
so : 2,020 1,950 27.0 26.0 26.0 54,540 50.700
UT U/ : 25 22 49.0 46.0 46.0 1,225 1,012
WA : 290 245 52.0 40.0 40.0 15,080 9,800
WI l/s: 10 11 29.0 35.0 35.0 290 385
Weds: 13 18 42.0 35.0 35.0 546 630
US : 16,751 17,834 33.7 34.6 33.3 563,971 593,221

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-14 NASS, USDA



Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield,
State, and United States.

Class and Type

and Production by Class,

Type.

1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Class 1, Flue-Cured
Type 11, Old and
Middle Belts
NC
VA

us
Type 12, Eastern NC
Belt

NC
Type 13, NC Border &
SC Belt

NC

SC

US
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
FL

GA

US
Total 11-14
Class 2. Fire-Cured
Type 21, VA Belt

Type 22, Eastern
District
KY
TN

us
Type 23, Western
District
KY
TN

US
Total 21-23
Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3A, Light
Air-Cured
Type 31, Burley

Type 32, Southern MD
Belt

MD

PA

US
Total 31-32

--- Pounds ---

2,100
2,035
2,083

2.325

2,355
2.130
2,219

2,630
2,240
2,295
2,217

1,560

2,430
2,400
2,409

2,880
2,580
2,838
2,457

2,325
2,250
2,304

2,350

2,500
2,450
2,466

2,700
2,500
2,671
2,449

- 1,000 Pounds --

207.900
73.260
281,160

299,925

80,070
110,760
190,830

18,673
96,320
114,993
886,908

1,872

8,505
18,480
26,985

10,512

1,548
12,060
40,917

17,415
426,300
4,760
18,315
18,900
118.035
24,308
3,600
631.633

12,255
6.650
18,905
650,538

204,600
76,500
281,100

274,950

70,500
108,100
178,600

17,850
85,800
103,650
838,300

2,240

9,500
20,090
29,590

10,260

1,600
11,860
43,690

15,265
402,500
7,260
18,275
18,700
116.600
25.300
3,600
607,500

12,325
7,020
19,345
626,845

--continued

Crop Production
September 1994

---- Acres ------
99,000 88,000

: 36.000 34/000
: 135,000 122,000
: 129.000 117,000
34,000 30,000
52.000 47.000
86.000 77,000
7,100 7,000
43.000 39,000

: 60,100 46,000
: 400,100 362,000
1,200 1,400
3,500 3,800
7,700 8.200
11,200 12,000
3.650 3,800
600 640
4,250 4,440
16.650 17,840

: 8,100 7,100
+ 196,000 175.000
: 2,800 3300
9.000 8.500
9,000 8.500
61,000 53.000
11,800 11,000

: 2,000 2.000
: 299,700 268.400
9,500 8,500
31500 3,600

: 13000 12/100
: 312,700 280.500
A-24

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA



from last year. Area expected to be harvested totals 676,120 acres, down

10 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 2,280 pounds is 5 pounds above
the August forecast. Dry weather early in the season delayed some planting, but
ideal growing conditions and adequate moisture in August produced large and
heavy plants. Rains delayed some harvest activity in the Southeast but Georgia
reported that harvest was completed a week ahead of normal.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 838 million pounds, 3 percent below
the August forecast and 5 percent below 1993. After a dry June some areas
received above normal precipitation that delayed harvest activities.

Burley production, at 608 million pounds. is up 1 percent from the August 1
forecast of 601 million pounds. Compared to the previous year, the 1994 crop
will be 4 percent smaller. Harvest of the 1994 crop is underway in Kentucky and
Tennessee with just over half of the crop reported in the barn.

Florida Citrus: Groves, trees, and new crop fruit are in good to excellent

condition. Above average rainfall in virtually all citrus
counties provided adequate to surplus moisture for August. Nearly ideal growing
conditions generated abundant new growth on at? trees. Testing for early
shipments continued throughout August. The first grapefruit of the season were
shipped at the end of August. Several crews planned to start harvest the last
of August or first of September. Caretakers actively cut cover crops, sprayed,
and applied fertilizers. Dead trees were removed and resets planted.

Sugarbeets: The September 1 sugarbeet production forecast of 29.8 million tons
is up 2 percent from the August 1 forecast and 14 percent above

last year’s output. Yields are expected to average 20.7 tons per acre, up

0.4 tons from the August forecast and up 2.1 tons from last year.

Production from Minnesota is expected to be 43 percent above last year. The
sugarbeet crop in Colorado survived one of the hottest and driest Summers on
record, while Michigan and North Dakota were reporting excessive soil moisture.

Sugarcane: Sugarcane production for sugar and seed September 1 is forecast at
31.2 million tons, down fractionally from the August 1 forecast but

virtually unchanged from last year’s output. Area for harvest, at

942,600 acres, is down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast and down

fractionally from a year ago.

Louisiana growers removed some acreage that was damaged from the 1990 freeze.
Acres intended for harvest in Louisiana was down 3 percent from the August
forecast.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on

September 1 for the 48 contiguous States was
77. percent, down 4 points from September 1, 1993, but 5 points above the 1983-92
average for the date. Pasture and range feed conditions were above last year in
25 States and below last year in 23 States.

No States were in the severe drought range. Only six States, California, Idaho,
New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, and WaShington, reported pasture and ranges in the

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-9 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States, 1993-94
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production

Oats Bu 54.4 60.0 206,253 247,753
Winter Wheat . 40.3 40.3 1,769,158 1,670,436
All Hay Ton 2.46 2.51 148,854 151,425

Alfalfa . 3.27 3.31 80,878 81,616

All Other “: 1.91 1.96 67,976 69,809
Dry Edible Beans 2/ Cwt : 1,365 1,538 21,842 27,981
Potatoes :

Winter " 188 193 2,552 2,372

Spring " 235 250 19,654 22,559

Fall 3f . 34 385,935
Hops Lb 1,767 1,707 76,143.7 72,358.2
Apples, Comm’] . 10,722,800 10,822,500
Peaches . 2,656,600 2,460,800
Pears Ton 949.2 980.0
Grapes “ 6,024.2 6.101.6
Sweet Cherries " 168.6 168.2
Tart Cherries Lb 323,400 256,800
Apricots Ton 96.4 137.8
Olives (CA) " 122.0 105.0
Dried Prunes (CA) . 121.0 175.0
Prunes and Plums

(Excl CA) " 28.2 40.0
Almonds (CA) Lb 490.000 640,000

1/ 1994 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Yield in pounds.

3/ 1993 revised.

Crop Production
September 1994

Agricultural Statistics Board

A-S

NASS, USDA



DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)
MODERA1 September 3, 1994
Dy]
ta P| UPDATED BI-WEEKLY
Tit ) /
EXTREME} SEVERE Méoendre
HAnbaes:
HHA Th
EXTREME! \ MOIST A
i ) MOLT SEVERE
{ “y) OS
yi ( Gevene
G Yo of a eery
EXTREME Cac) =
LES J “4 mre usr (SY JMODERATE
| Hf Y MoIsT ae SEVERE =
\ _ CT severe
tee 2D Gus x
— SEVERE /
yt MOIST
or MODERATE / MONT
Exrueoe | v4
, st
L. NOAMUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on preliminary reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly: changes little from week to week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff. recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies: designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-2 NASS, USDA


Potatoes:

Seasonal
Group and
State

Fall L/ 2/ 3/ :
CA :

12.0 11.
co 72.2 73.
1D
10 SW Co 24.0 27.
Other ID 364.0 381.
IN 4.2 4.
ME 78.0 76.
MA 3.0 3.
MI 38.0 42.
MN 55.0 70.
MT 9.0 9.
NE 9.4 9
NV 7.7 7.
NM 5.8 6
NY
Long Is 6.2 6.
Upstate 22.0 22.
ND 111.0 129
OH 5.7 5
oR
Malheur 8.7 10
Other OR 40.7 38
PA 20.0 18
RI 1.1 1
SD 5.2 5
UT 6.2 6
WA 150.0 152
WI 69.5 71
WY 1.8 1
Total 1,130.4 1,188
Us 1,317.0 1,380
L/ Estimates for current year
2/ 1993 revised.
3/

Group, State, and United States, 1992-94 (continued)

Area Harvested

- 1,000 Acres

published November 9, 1994.

Crop Production
September 1994

NQOMH WUWNOORGHOO

WIMOMOHODSA

sO

5,600
22,110

9,570
117,480
989
24,300
825
10,800
16,080
2,465
2,698
2,925
2,295

1,984
5,824
27,690
1,440

3,075
18,000
4,940
377
1,500
1,650
69,300
25,160
448
379,525

425,367

Production

1,000 Cwt

4,800
25,270

10,440
115,752
1,050
19,890
645
11,780
12,650
2,700
3,008
2,926
2,871

1,643
6,050
21,090
1,140

3,567
19,536
4,600
226
1,066
1,643
88.500
22,588
504
385,935

428,693

carried forward fram earlier forecast.

Estimates for 1994 yield and production for fal? potatoes will be

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production. by Seasonal

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States. 1992-1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994 1/

Area Harvested Production

State penne een ee ee ee eee een eee ene enen eee

: 1993 1994 1992 1993 1994

: -- 1,000 Acres -- = ---- Tons ----- — -------- 1,000 Tons
cA : 136.0 135.0 0 4,230 3.536 3,645
co : 40.0 43.2 2 954 924 1,002
1D : 204.0 201.0 0 4,900 4,733 5,226
MI : 187.0 187.0 0 3,098 3,179 2,992
MN : 379.0 414.0 5 6,845 5,344 7,659
MT : 54.1 $4.1 0 1,272 1,169 1,244
NE : 79.6 74.5 9 1,387 1,473 1,483
ND : 190.9 203.0 -0 3.388 3,112 3,654
OH : 17.5 15.0 0 328 212 255
OR : 15.2 16.2 0 394 372 421
1X : 39.2 24.5 a) 838 823 564
WY : 64.4 62.0 0 1,437 1,269 1,240
Oth :
Sts 2/: 2.5 11.7 41.2 37.0 72 103 433
US : 1,409.4 1,441.2 18.6 20.7 29,143 26.249 29,818

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production

State

1,000 Acres sr ---- Tons ---- === == 1,000 Tons ------
FL : 444.0 445.0 34.1 34.0 14,707 15.162 15,130
HI : 69.9 67.7 80.2 87.0 5,622 5,606 5,890
LA : 390.0 385.0 22.8 23.0 8,706 8,904 8.855
TTMX : 44.4 44.9 32.4 28.7 1,328 1,439 1,289
US : 948.3 942.6 32.8 33.1 30,363 31,101 31,164
1/ Net Tons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1994 A-27 NASS, USDA


Tobacco:
and United States, 1992-1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

1994

: 1993

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

CT 1,500
FL 7,100
GA 43,000
IN 8,100
kY 207,300
MO 9,500
MA 400
MO 2,800
NC 271,000
OH 9,000
PA 10,000
Sc 52,000
TN 69,940
VA 49,100
WV 2,000
WI 4,800
us 747,540

540
000
000
100
400
500

460

300
500
500
600
000
440
480
000
300

320 2,
575 18,
+980 96,
+900 17,
378 455,
931 12,
678

298 4,
873 606,
840 18,
840 20,
320 110,
556 139,
459 99
623 3
100 7
671 1,613

1,000 Pounds ----

413
673
320
415
080
255
694
760
210
900
300
760
423

544
600
1244

2,484
17,850
85,800
15,265

431,380
12,325

7,260
568,325
18,700
19,620
108,100
139,580
104,152

Crop Production
September 1994

- Pounds ---
,609 = 1,613
.630 2,550
.240 2,200
.150 2,150
+195 2,314
.290 1,450
.735 1,633
-700 2,200
.237 2,334
.100 = 2,200
.030 2,044
-130 2,300
-993 2,235
.027 2,241
.800 1,800
509 1,933

159 2,280

A-23

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


August Weather Summary: The summer's dominant weather features--a western ridge
and a Mississippi Valley trough--shifted subtly

eastward during August. As a result, the Northwest and the Northeast cooled,

while the Intermountain West remained hot and dry with monthly temperatures up

to 6 degrees F above normal. Heat shifted into the High Plains, but cool

weather continued in the upper Midwest where temperatures averaged up to

4 degrees F below normal.

The Eastern States remained in a favored channel for heavy rainfall, partly due
to Tropical Storm Beryl which made landfall in northwestern Florida on August
15. Farther west, variable conditions existed across the Midwest with dryness
primarily confined to the southern Corn Belt. A late-month shot of moisture not
only improved crop conditions across the southern Corn Belt. but also provided
pre-planting moisture for winter wheat in parts of the central and southern
Plains. Conditions west of the Rocky Divide, however, remained exceedingly dry.
Despite cooler weather in the Northwest, some areas went a second consecutive
month without rain. Western wildfires continued to burn at a ferocious pace,
with 3.1 million acres scorched through month's end compared with the 1989-93
average of 2.2 million acres.

The hot, dry summer continued unabated in the Southwest. August average-
temperature records were set in locations such as Las Vegas, NV (92.9 degrees
F), Salt Lake City. UT (80.8 degrees F), and El Paso, TX (86.2 degrees F). With
a reading of 126 degrees F on August 6, Death Valley, CA, was within 1 degree F
of the U.S. August record. Farther north, no precipitation fell in Reno, NV,
and Burns, OR. In contrast, as much as 8 inches of rain fell in the east-
central Plains and southeastern Texas. More than 8 inches fell across most of
Florida and atong the Appalachian chain. In Miami, FL, 16.64 inches of rain was
only 0.24 inches shy of an August record.

During the month, a sharp temperature gradient existed across the Plains, with
hot weather remaining to the west. Late in the month. highs soared to

103 degrees F in Rapid City, SD (August 26) and 107 degrees F in St. Francis, KS
(August 27). Farther east. cool periods were observed at regular intervals.
Tulsa, OK, with 53 degrees F on the 15th, came within 1 degree F of their August
record low. Other notable lows included 41 degrees F in Aberdeen, SD. on the
6th, 38 degrees F in Bismarck, ND. on the 8th, and 49 degrees F in Kansas City,
MO (earliest sub-50 degree F reading) on the 15th. Williston, NO, dipped to

34 degrees F on August 31.

General Crop Comments: At the beginning of August, crop progress was ahead of

the average for all crops despite below-normal
temperatures in the Eastern States, and hot, dry weather in the Western States
throughout the month. August started with cotton bolls opening and the winter
wheat harvest finishing up. Early in August, beneficial rains fell in parts of
the Corn Belt but did not eliminate ail the dry pockets during the crucial grain
and pod-filling stage of development. Cool weather lessened the amount of
moisture demanded by the crops and slowed crop growth but did not pull the
crop’s progress below the average.

Continuing rains hampered field activities in the Southeastern States. By mid-
August, dry pockets remained in parts of the Corn Belt. Warmer weather in the
Great Lakes region improved crop growth and maturation. Clear weather at mid-

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-3 NASS, USDA


Peanuts for Nuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production 1/

1993 : 1994

1,000 Acres - ---- 1,000 Pounds ---

AL : 239.0 230.0 1,980 2,150 2,000 473,220 460,000
FL : 84.0 75.0 2,320 2,200 2,200 194,880 165,000
GA : 697.0 665.0 1,985 2,600 2.700 1,383,545 1.795.500
NM : 21.8 23.0 2,600 2,600 2,750 56,680 63,250
NC : 143.0 150.0 2,095 2,700 2,850 299,585 427,500
OK : 102.0 107.0 2,290 2,450 2,450 233,580 262,150
sc : 14.0 14.5 1,750 2,850 2,800 24,500 40,600
TX : 295.0 285.0 1,865 2,300 2,200 550,175 627,000
0 92.0 1,875 3,000 3,000 176,250 276,000

VA : 94.

91 3,392,415 4,117,000

y

us

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Cottonseed: Production, United States. 1992-93
and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-18 NASS, USDA



U.S. Corn Production

1985 - 1994
“eke enema Gy
6.00 IN N: N: 490 WN N N NN . Ry NV .
2001 NI NIN NININV NIN NIN
VAIN

0.00
8 86 87 8&8 89 90 91 92 93 94

Year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board



Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts cotton objective yield
surveys in 6 States which account for about 80 percent of the U.S. Upland cotton
production. Plots are randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton
fields. Two sample plots per field are visited monthly from about August 1
through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The boll counts
shown below represent actual data collected from sampled fields and are not
official estimates of NASS.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September 1990-1994, and
November and Final, 1990-1993 1/

Arizona Arkansas
Year Nov Final Sep Nov Final
Number
1990: 1,250 1,239 1,162 846 685 669
1991 : 1,161 1,161 1,083 1,010 797 782
1992 : 1,112 1,062 1,013 1,076 822 817
1993 :
1994
1990: 875 855 843 866 882 888
1991 : 909° 826 814 881 813 770
1992: 839 841 819 882 858 875
1993: 930 839 839 746 662 661
1994 828 808
Mississippi Texas
1990: 824 695 693 501 502 489
1991: 890 734 726 466 488 431
1992 : 896 713 708 431 498 489
1993 : 697 619 608 506 491 489
1994 : 864 490

1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls
(at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and
burrs, per 40 feet of row.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-33 NASS, USDA


Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Crop and State

Improved Varieties 1/

AL

AR

CA

FL

GA

LA

MS

NM

NC

OK

sc

TM

US
Native and Seedling

AL

AR

FL

GA

KS 2/

LA

MS

NC

OK

sc

TMX

US
All Pecans

AL

AR

CA

FL

GA

KS 2/

LA

MS

NM

NC

OK

sc

TTMX

Oth Sts 3/

26,000
200

500
30,000
1,000
500

200
40.000
104,800

2,000
1,200

800
4.000

800
200
1,500
8,500
100
22,000
41,100

4,000
1,300
2.600
2,500
30,000

1,000
700
30,000
2,500
9,000
300
62,000

20,100
166,000

1,000 Pounds

15,000
600
3,000
3,200
124,000
2,500
3,500
36,000
1,200
1,000
2,100
45,000
237,100

11,000
900
4,300
26,000
1,800
13,500
2,500
1,300
17,000
900
30,000
109, 200

26,000
1,500
3,000
7,500

150,000
1,800

16,000
6,000

36,000
2,500

18,000
3,000

75,000

18,700
365,000

1,800
2,500
30,000
139,200

3,000
500
1,000
10,000
2,000
6,000
400
1,200
14,200
1,500
10,000
49,800

8,000
1,300
2,000
3,000
75,000
2,000
8,000
1,200
25,000
3,500
16.000
4,000
40,000

20,000

1/ Budded. grafted, or topworked varieties
2/ Estimates for Kansas are published separately beginning in 1993
AZ, MO, and TN beginning in 1993.

3/ AZ, KS, MO, and TN in 1992.
between varieties available.

Crop Production
September 1994

A-30

No breakdown

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States.
1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994 (Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

COE oT) eee
1993 1994 1993 1994
Hectares

Corn : 29,673,080 31,876,220 25,491,830 29,039,340
Sorghum : 4,246,010 4,127,430 3,838,890 3,763,210
Barley : 3.167.100 2.957.070 2.748, 250 2,771,320
All Wheat : 29,221,860 28,517,700 25,352,610 25,079,050

Ourun : 886,680 1,090,640 829,610 1,067,980

Other Spring : 7,401,780 7,375,880 6,778,960 7,217,240
Rice : 1,181,690 1,357,730 1,146,490 1,335,480
Soybeans : 24,020,370 24,999,720 22,843,540 24,565,490
Peanuts : 701,530 680,690 683,850 664,300
All Cotton : 5,438,340 5,659,100 5,173,280 5,417,340

Upland : 5,361,450 5,588,280 5,096,830 5.347.090

Amer-Pima : 76,890 70,820 76,450 70.250
Potatoes :

Summer 2/ : 38.080 38,000 36,100 36,140

Total 2/ : 560,580 568,870 532,970 558,590
Tobacco : 302,520 273,620
Sugarbeets : 581,820 594,080 570.370 583,240
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed : 383,770 381,460

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ 1993 revised.

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested.
United States, 1993-94 (Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

Crop Potten cer cee een rrr enn ee nen een ee ee eee ree eee eee
1993 1994 1/ 1993 1994 1/
Hectares
Oats : 3,214,860 2,711,420 1,534,990 1,672,180
Winter Wheat : 20,933,400 20,051,180 17,744,040 16,793,830
Rye : 604,200 658,840 154,190 163.490
Sunflower 4 1,123,420 1,388,090 1,013,340 1,331,830
Flaxseed : 83,370 76,490 77,300 73.650
All Hay : 24,442,470 24,408,880
Alfalfa : 10,020,930 9,988,960
All Other : 14,421,530 14,419,910
Ory Edible Beans : 748,640 797,930 647.500 736,450
Potatoes :
Winter : 5,790 5,020 5,500 4,980
Spring : 35,170 37.070 33.910 36.580
Fall 2/ : 481,540 488.780 457.460 480.890
Sweetpotatoes : 33,630 34,200 32,460 32,860
Hops : 17.440 17,160
1/1994 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1993 revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1994 A-7 NASS, USOA


Crop Summary:

Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States, 1993-94
(Metric Units)

Crop

Yield per Hectare

Oats
Winter Wheat
All Hay
Alfalfa
All Other
Dry Edible Beans
Potatoes
Winter
Spring
Fall 2/
Hops
Apples, Comm']
Peaches
Pears
Grapes
Sweet Cherries
Tart Cherries
Apricots
Olives (CA)
Dried Prunes (CA)
Prunes and Plums
(Excl CA)
Almonds (CA)

1993 1994 1/
1.95 2.15
2.71 2.71
5.52 5.63
7.32 7.41
4.28 4.39
1.53 1.72

21.05 21.60
26.29 27.97
38.27

Metric Tons

2,993,750
48,148,590
135, 038.080
73,371,290
61,666,790
990,740

115,760
891,490
17,505,720
34,540
4,863,780
1,205,010
861,100
5,465,020
152,950
146,690
87,410
110,680
109,770

25,580
222,260

3,596,120
45,461,820
137.370,450
74,040,790
63,329,660
1,269,200

107,590
1,023,260

32,820
4,909,000
1,116,200

889.040
5,535,280
152,590
116,480
125,010
95,250
158,760

36,290
290,300

1/ 1994 estimates carried forward from

2/ 1993 revised.

Crop Production
September 1994

A-6

earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA



Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

State 1993: 1994
- 1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bales 2/

Uptand +
AL : 430.0 460.0 524 715 720 469.0 690.0
AZ : 315.0 314.0 1,204 1,223 1,169 790.0 765.0
AR : 970.0 930.0 541 800 774 1,094.0 1,500.0
CA 1,045.0 1,085.0 1.340 1,371 1,371 2,918.0 3,100.0
FL 3/ 53.5 68.0 696 706 706 77.6 100.0
GA 600.0 890.0 586 734 750 733.0 1,390.0
KS 3/ 1.4 11 206 480 480 0.6 1.1
LA 875.0 885.0 606 786 759 1,105.0 1,400.0
MS 1,300.0 1,310.0 572 769 769 1,550.0 2,100.0
MO 335.0 350.0 539 727 686 376.0 500.0
NM 48.7 55.0 769 742 742 78.0 85.0
NC 385.0 487.0 535 631 670 429.0 680.0
OK 350.0 365.0 370 381 329 270.0 250.0
sc 198.0 216.0 495 689 689 204.0 310.0
TN : 615.0 555.0 425 631 631 545.0 730.0
TX : 5,050.0 5,200.0 484 471 462 5,095.0 5,000.0
VA 3/ 22.8 41.7 634 650 650 30.1 56.5
US :12,594.4 13,212.8 601 686 678 15,.764.3 18,657.6

Amer -Pima
AZ 56.9 48.0 734 850 800 87.0 80.0
CA 91.0 79.8 1,192 1,233 1,263 225.9 210.0
NM 11.0 11.8 816 814 814 18.7 20.0
1X 30.0 34.0 784 805 805 49.0 57.0
US 188.9 173.6 967 1,015 1,015 380.6 367.0

All
AL 430.0 460.0 524 715 720 469.0 690.0
AZ 371.9 362.0 1,132 1,173 1,120 877.0 845.0
AR 970.0 930.0 541 800 774 1,094.0 1,500.0
CA 1,136.0 1,164.8 1,328 1,362 1,364 3,143.9 3,310.0
FL 3/ 53.5 68.0 696 706 706 77.6 100.0
GA 600.0 890.0 586 734 750 733.0 1,390.0
KS 3/_: 1.4 1.1 206 480 480 0.6 1.1
LA : 875.0 885.0 606 786 159 1,105.0 1,400.0
MS : 1,300.0 1,310.0 572 769 769 1,550.0 2,100.0
MO : 335.0 350.0 539 727 686 376.0 500.0
NM : 59.7 66.8 777 754 754 96.7 105.0
NC : 385.0 487.0 535 631 670 429.0 680.0
OK 350.0 365.0 370 381 329 270.0 250.0
SC 198.0 216.0 495 689 689 204.0 310.0
TN 615.0 555.0 425 631 631 545.0 730.0
TX : 5,080.0 5,234.0 486 473 464 5,144.0 5,057.0
VA 3/ 22.8 41.7 634 650 650 30.1 56.5
US -3 13,386.4 606 690 682 16,144.9 19,024.6

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1994 A-19 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Area Harvested : Production

State : : :
: 1993 : 1994 1993: 1994

1,000 Acres --- 1,000 Bushels ---
AL : 250 260 55.0 90.0 90.0 13,750 23,400
AZ 1/ : 10 13 160.0 170.0 170.0 1.600 2,210
AR 1/ L 90 90 91.0 120.0 120.0 8,190 10,800
CA : 170 180 165.0 165.0 170.0 28,050 30,600
co 2) : 825 900 120.0 145.0 145.0 99,000 130,500
OE : 160 162 85.0 110.0 115.0 13,600 17,480
FL 1/ : 100 80 65.0 75.0 75.0 6.500 6,000
GA 560 540 70.0 104.0 104.0 39.200 56,160
1D 1/ 45 30 125.0 135.0 135.0 §,625 4,050
IL 10,000 11,550 130.0 135.0 138.0 1,300,000 1,593,900
IN 5,400 6,150 132.0 132.0 132.0 712,800 811.800
IA 11,000 12,400 80.0 145.0 145.0 880,000 1,798,000
KS 1,800 2,000 120.0 140.0 140.0 216.000 280,000
KY 1,220 1,220 104.0 118.0 116.0 126,880 141,520
ta ot 210 280 95.0 110.0 110.0 19,950 30,800
MD 420 380 78.0 110.0 110.0 32.760 41,800
MA 2/ :
MI : 2,150 2,150 110.0 106.0 106.0 236.500 227,900
MN : 4,600 6,300 70.0 134.0 140.0 322,000 882,000
MS 1/ : 190 280 78.0 102.0 102.0 14,820 28,560
MO 1,850 2,300 90.0 113.0 111.0 166.500 255.300
MT L/ 8 25 105.0 110.0 110.0 840 2,750
MF 2 7,550 8,000 104.0 138.0 131.0 785,200 1,048,000
NJ J/ 80 83 96.0 110.0 110.0 7,680 9,130
NM 1/ : 85 85 165.0 165.0 165.0 14,025 14,025
NY : 580 540 105.0 110.0 110.0 60,900 59,400
NC : 850 850 65.0 93.0 90.0 55,250 76,500
ND : 365 500 45.0 82.0 86.0 16.425 43,000
OH : 3,280 3.500 110.0 124.0 129.0 360.800 451,500
OK 1/ : 140 180 110.0 100.0 100.0 15,400 18,000
OR 1/ : 19 25 155.0 170.0 170.0 2,945 4,250
A 2 : 970 1,000 96.0 112.0 116.0 93,120 116,000
R :
SC : 240 345 40.0 69.0 69.0 9,600 23,805
so 2,550 3,300 63.0 86.0 89.0 160,650 293,700
TN : 550 570 84.0 120.0 120.0 46,200 68.400
TM ; 1,850 1,950 115.0 120.0 117.0 212,750 228,150
UT 1/ : 22 24 130.0 130.0 130.0 2,860 3,120
VT 2/ :
VA : 285 340 60.0 92.0 94.0 17,100 31.960
WA 1/ : 80 95 190.0 180.0 180.0 15,200 17,100
WV L/ : 43 40 85.0 90.0 90.0 3,655 3,600
WI : 2,350 3,000 92.0 120.0 122.0 216,200 366,000
WY 1/ : 44 50 80.0 120.0 120.0 3,520 6.000
US : 62,991 71,757 100.7 128.4 129.0 6,344,045 9,257.170

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-9 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State.
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994 (continued)

Class and Type

--- Pounds ---

Class 3, Air-Cured

Class 3B, Dark
Air-Cured

Type 35, One Sucker
Belt

Type 36, Green River
Belt
KY

Belt
VA
Total 35-37

Type 37. VA Sun-Cured :

Class 4, Cigar Filler :

Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA

Class 5. Cigar Binder :

Class 5A, CT Valley
Binder
Type 51, CT Valley
Broadleaf
CT
MA
US
Class 5B, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI
WI
Type 55, Northern WI
WI
Total 54-55
Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:

Type 61, CT Valley
Shade-Grown
CT
MA
us
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61

All Tobacco

Crop Production
September 1994

--++ Acres ------
2.700 2,500
640 600
3.340 3,100
1.450 1,300
100 80
4,890 4,480
6.500 6,000
650 630
170 180
820 810
2.900 2,200
1,900 1,100
4,800 3,300
5.620 4.110
850 910
230 280
1,080 1,190
13,200 11,300
: 747,540 676,120
A-25

2,370
2,125
2,323

2,320

1,040
2.296

2,100

1,875
2,060
1,913

1,620
1,340

1,509
1,568

2,400
2,150
2,352

2,400

1,400
2,349

2,100

~ 1,790
1,870
1,809

2,100
1,600

1,933
1,909

1,490
1,480
1,487

1,966

6,399
1,360
7,759

3,364

104
11,227

13,650

1,219
350
1,569

4,698
2,546

7,244
8,813

1,194
344
1,538

24,001

- 1,000 Pounds --

6,000
1,290
7,290

3.120

112
10,522

12,600

1,128
337
1,465

4,620
1,760

6,380
7,845

1,356
414
1,770

22,215

2,280 1,613,591 1,541,572

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Crop a Asricultural

Statistics

Production Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released September 12, 1994, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts
refer to September 1, 1994.

Corn Up Fractionally
Soybeans Up 1 Percent

Corn production is forecast at 9.26 billion bushels. up fractionally from the
August 1 forecast but 46 percent above the 1993 production. Based on conditions
as of September 1. yields are expected to average 129.0 bushels per acre, up
0.6 bushel from last month and 28.3 bushels above a year earlier. Acreage for
harvest as grain is estimated at 71.8 million acres, the same as last month.

Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.32 billion bushels as of
September 1, up 1 percent from the August 1 forecast and 28 percent above 1993.
Yield is forecast at a record high 38.2 bushels per acre. 0.6 bushel above
August 1 and 6.2 bushels above 1993. The previous record high yield of 37.6 was
set in 1992.

All cotton production as of September 1 remains at a record high of 19.0 million
bales. down 1 percent from August but 16 percent larger than 1993. Yields are
expected to average 682 pounds per acre, down 8 pounds from last month but

76 pounds above last year. Texas’ production declined 100,000 bales from last
month and the forecasts for Arkansas and Louisiana each declined 50,000 bales.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
information call (202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (9-94)



Report Features

The next “Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m.

October 12, 1994.

ET on

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National

Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley. Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds. Rice (202) 720-9526
Greg Preston - Weekly Crop Weather, Sugar Crops, Tobacco (202) 720-7621
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068
Charles Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 720-7369
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Stephen Ropel. Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285
Kirby Cavett - Peanuts, Hay (202) 720-8843
Blair Smith - Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 720-5412
Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Cottonseed (202) 720-5944
David Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-6054
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-15 NASS, USOA


Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States

1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

1,000 Acres - -- 1,000 Bushels --
AZ 1/ : 29 33 100.0 97.0 97.0 2,900 3,201
CA 1/ : 200 220 65.0 60.0 60.0 13,000 13,200
co : 90 83 85.0 82.0 85.0 7,650 7,055
DE 1/ 35 30 65.0 55.0 55.0 2,275 1,650
1D 750 720 80.0 77.0 75.0 60,000 54,000
KS 1/ 15 13 46.0 40.0 40.0 690 520
KY J/ 16 14 67.0 75.0 75.0 1,072 1,050
MD 1/ 69 60 69.0 76.0 76.0 4,761 4,560
MI 1/ 28 33 54.0 54.0 54.0 1,512 1,782
MN 650 625 58.0 55.0 53.0 37,700 33,125
MT 1,100 1,150 58.0 47.0 47.0 63,800 54,050
NE 1/ 32 21 38.0 38.0 38.0 1,216 798
NV L/ 5 4 100.0 105.0 105.0 500 420
NJ 1/ 5 5 60.0 50.0 50.0 300 250
NC i/ 20 25 60.0 70.0 70.0 1,200 1,750
ND 2.400 2,550 49.0 54.0 54.0 117,600 137,700
OK 1/ 8 35.0 39.0 39.0 280 4
OR 150 130 75.0 73.0 73.0 11,250 9,490
PA L/ 95 80 63.0 70.0 70.0 5,985 5,600
Sc 1/ 7 7 38.0 58.0 58.0 266 406
SD 360 355 42.0 40.0 40.0 15,120 14,200
TX 1/ 7 6 44.0 33.0 33.0 308 98
UT 110 110 85.0 78.0 72.0 9,350 7.920
VA l/ 85 85 67.0 70.0 70.0 5,695 5,950
WA 345 305 67.0 47.0 47.0 23,115 14,335
WI 70 75 46.0 53.0 53.0 3,220 3,975
wy 110 103 86.0 80.0 78.0 9,460 8,034
US 6,791 6,848 58.9 56.8 56.3 400,225 385,453

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-12 NASS, USDA



Sorghum for Grain:

and United States.

Area Harv

1993 1994

1,000 Acres
AL 1/ : 19 20
AR : 215 230
co : 190 170
GA 1/ : 40 35
IL : 210 180
KS : 2,800 2,800
KY 1/ : 10 20
LA : 120 110
MS : 65 72
MO : 640 620
NE : 1,250 1,200
NY : 165 160
NC 1/ : 15 20
OK : 290 290
Sc 1/ : 8 15
SD 210 130
TM U/ 39 27
1TM 3,200 3,200
US 9,486 9,299

ested

1993

Q 722
0 12.470
0 7,980
0 1,440
0 17,430
0 176,400
0 750
0 7,200
0 4,225
0 46,720
0 73,750
0 7,425
0 675
0 14,500
0

0

0

0

3

3.120
182,400

567,867

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

-- 1,000 Bushels --

1,000
16,100
8,160
1,925
15,840
201,600

l/s Estimates for current year carried forward from

Crop Production
September 1994

A-11

earlier forecast.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


size of good nuts was the second highest on record, exceeded only in 1990. Dry
weight tied the second highest average.

Walnuts: The 1994 California walnut production forecast is 220,000 tons, down
15 percent from the 1993 record high of 260,000 tons. This forecast
is based on objective survey data and is down 15 percent from July.

The average number of nuts per tree is down 14 percent from 1993. The Hartley
nut set is down 28 percent and the Serr set is down 29 percent, but the
Franquette set is up 10 percent. There are 95.6 percent sound kernels in-shell
Statewide. Sunburn damage was noted in Ashley and Vina varieties. Some growers
expected to start harvest the first week of September.

Pecans: The September 1 forecast for U.S. pecan production is 209 million

pounds (in-shell basis), down 43 percent from last year. Excessive
rains in the Southeast, a severe ice storm in the South, and the naturally
occurring alternate bearing cycle of pecan trees all contributed to a reduced
crop.

The Georgia forecast is 75.0 million pounds, half the size of last year. Excess
rain interrupted spray schedules and allowed scab to run rampant. Flooding
washed out roads and made fields too wet to support machinery. Production in
Alabama is forecast at 8.00 million pounds, less than one-third of a year
earlier. A wet July and August also provided conditions for disease infestation
and prevented spraying for scab and other diseases. South Carolina and North
Carolina pecan crops are expected to be 4.00 million pounds and 3.50 million
pounds, respectively. These two States are among the few to have increased
production. Conditions vary widely across the Carolinas. Producers practicing
good orchard management are having a good crop. Florida’s pecan production is
forecast at 3.00 million pounds, less than half of a year ago.

Louisiana’s pecan forecast is 8.00 million pounds, half of the previous year’s
level. The crop in the south central part of the State is still recovering from
damage caused by Hurricane Andrew. Insect and diseases contributed to the poor
prospects. The Mississippi crop was devastated by an ice storm in February
1994. Production is forecast at 1.20 million pounds, down from 6.00 million
pounds a year ago. Arkansas pecan growers expect a drop in production to

1.30 million pounds, down 13 percent from last year. Kansas’ production is
forecast up 11 percent to 2.00 million pounds. Weather alternated between very
wet and very dry during the growing year in Kansas.

Texas’ production is forecast at 40.0 million pounds, down 47 percent from last
year. Crop progress varied widely across the State. A hot, dry summer and wind
storms have taken a toll on the crop. Many orchards are trying to recover from
the October 1993 freeze. Oklahoma's growers expect to harvest 16.0 million
pounds, down 11 percent from 1993. An average nut set is reported statewide.
Western and central areas are extremely dry and the eastern areas have above
average moisture. The New Mexico pecan crop is expected to be 25.0 million
pounds, down 31 percent from a year ago. A majority of producers were affected
by a freeze in late March and early April. The California crop is expected to
total 2.00 million pounds, down 33 percent in this low year of the alternate
bearing cycle.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-11 NASS, USDA


Soybean: Plant Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting soybean objective
yield surveys in 8 States during 1994. Randomly selected plots in soybean
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts
and measurements. Oata in this table are actual counts from this survey and are
not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are intended to
show trends in soybean production practices.

Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet
Selected States, 1990 - 94 1/ 2/

State
and 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
Month
Number of Pods

AR Sep 3/ : NA NA NA NA NA
Nov : 1,750 1,336 1.713 1.399
Final : 1,588 1327 1,705 1,327

IL Sep + 1,535 1,574 1,698 1,937 1.745
Nov : 1,460 1,450 1.503 1.712
Final > 1,460 1,450 1,502 1.701

IN Sep : 1,472 1.535 1,623 1,938 1.850
Nov + 1,400 1,508 1,543 1.703
Final 1 1,396 1,508 1.543 1.703

IA Sep : 1,462 1,406 1,501 1,336 1,887
Nov : 1,321 1,451 1,464 1,340
Final : 1,330 1.456 1.473 1,340

MN Sep : 1,628 1,400 1.431 1,037 1,678
Nov : 1.454 1,478 1.367 1,106
Final : 1,454 1,476 1.367 1,105

MO Sep 1,298 1,239 1,682 1.493 1.470
Nov : 1,301 1,416 1,607 1.727
Final : 1,918 11426 1,602 1,699

NE Sep : 1,535 1,487 1.517 1.469 1.676
Nov : 1,320 1,423 1,504 1.414
Final : 1,320 1,422 1.509 1,445

OH Sep : 1,389 1,426 1,462 1.617 1.950
Nov : 1,311 1.313 1.394 1.361
Final : 1,298 15312 1.404 1,361

1/ Based on pod counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ Final pod counts will be published in January.
3/ Not available due to plant immaturity.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-32 NASS, USDA


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age,
disability. political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the

USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C..
20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-16 NASS, USDA


Corn: Plant Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
surveys in 10 States during 1994. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts
and measurements. Data in this table are actual counts from this survey and are
not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but are intended to
show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Plant Population Per Acre.
Selected States, 1990-94 1/

Number of Plants

IL : 22,300 23,700 23.000 23,300 23,300

IN : 21,900 22,400 23,200 23,200 22,800
IA : 22,400 22,900 23,300 23,500 24,000
MI : 20,800 21,800 21,600 22,800 22,200
MN : 23,100 23,900 24,600 25,100 26,100
MO : 18,000 19,800 18,800 19,300 19,600
NE : 21,500 22,200 21,900 22,200 21,900
OH : 22,500 23,200 23,300 23,300 22,800
SD : 16,100 17,500 17,800 17,600 19,100
Wi : 21,900 23,400 22,800 23,600 24,000

1/ Based on stalk counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ September 1 counts.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-31 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994
(Metric Units)

Production

Crop Lettre rrr tee eee eee ee nn eee renee eee ener eee
: : : Aug 1, : Sep 1,
1993: 1994 : 1993 : 1994 : 1994

Metric Tons

Corn for Grain 6.32 8.10 161,146,170 234,057,050 235,142,950
Sorghum for Grain 3.76 4.29 14.424,490 16,795,250 16,130,500
Barley 3.17 3.03 8,713,870 8.464,250 8,392,250
All Wheat 2.58 2.56 65,373,230 64.931.300 64,264,140
Ourum 2.26 2.49 1,875,860 2,663,310 2,657,490
Other Spring 2.26 2.24 15,348,780 16,806,170 16,144,830
Rice 6.18 6.46 7,081,030 8,546,540 8,631,320
Soybeans for Beans 2.15 2.57 49.220.340 62,115,850 63,033,290
Peanuts for Nuts 2.25 2.82 1,538,770 1,854,410 1,867,440
All Cotton 0.68 0.76 3,515,140 4,179,130 4,142,110
Upland 0.67 0.76 3,432,270 4,099,230 4,062,210
Amer-Pima : 1.08 1.14 82,870 79,900 79,900
Cottonseed t 5,758,080 6,776,220 6,709,080
Potatoes :
Summer 1/ : 25.82 26.60 932,220 979,080 961.480
Total 1/ : 36.48 19,445,190
Tobacco 2 2.42 2.56 731,910 707,050 699,250
Sugarbeets : 41.75 46.38 23,812,690 26,515,200 27,050,430
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed 2 73.52 74.11 28,214,350 28,480,160 28,271,510
Pecans : 165,560 94,800

37,190 17,240 17,240

Hazelnuts 2/
199,580

Walnuts (CA) 3/

l/ 1993 revised.
2/ August estimate as of mid-August.
3/ August estimate carried forward from July 1.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-8 NASS, USDA



Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group,
State, and United States, 1993-94

Seasonal Group

and : 1993 : 1994 :: and : 1993 : 1994
State : : a State : :
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Winter 1/ : rr Fall ds 2/ :

CA : 5.6 4.5 0:: CA : 12.0 11.0
FL : 8.7 7.9 co : 72.5 74.0
Total : 14.3 12.4 ID :

: ft 10 SW Co : 24.0 27.0

Spring l/ : it Other ID : 366.0 383.0
AL : 2.8 nt IN : 4.5 4.4
AZ : 5.5 ME : 80.0 78.0
CA : 19.5 MA : 3.0 3.1
FL MI : 40.0 44.0

Hastings : 28.0 MN : 70.0 74.0

Other FL : 8.0 MT : 9.1 9.3

NC : 17.6 NE : 9.6 9.4

TTMX : 5.5 NV : 7.7 7.7

Total : 86.9 NM : 5.8 6.3
: NY :

Summer 2/ Long Is : 6.3 6.1
AL 7.3 7. Upstate : 22.5 23.0
CA 4.8 5. ND : 143.0 133.0
co 8.3 9. OH : 5.8 5.6
DE 5.0 4, OR :

IL 5.1 5. Malheur Co : 8.9 10.5
IA 1/ 1.5 1, Other OR : 41.5 39.5
MD 1/ 2.5 2. PA : 21.0 19.0
MI 13.0 14, RI 11 1.1
MN 7.2 7. SD : 6.0 5.5
MO 7.7 7. UT : 6.3 6.6
NE 3.1 3. WA : 150.0 152.0
Nd 3.4 2. WI : 71.5 73.0
NM 4.9 3. wy : 1.8 1.7
NC 1/ 1.3 1, Total : 1,189.9 1,207.8
TX 8.0 7. :

VA 11.0 10. US > 1,385.2 1,405.7
Total 94.4 93, :

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ 1993 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

September 1994 A-22 NASS, USDA


four States had set al] their pods by the end of August. In Iowa and Nebraska,
the percent of soybeans dropping leaves was ahead of the average. However,
Minnesota and Ohio lagged slightly behind their averages as of the beginning of
September.

In Illinois and Indiana, the 1994 number of pods per 18 square feet is the
second highest, compared with the September 1990-94 period. Both States had
nearly all their pods set by the end of August. Illinois and Indiana both
lagged slightly behind average for soybeans dropping leaves the beginning of
September.

In Missouri, the 1994 number of pods per 18 square feet ranks as the third
highest. The percent of pods set in Missouri ranked ahead of the average and
1993, but not all pods had set by the end of August. In Missouri and Arkansas.
the percent of soybeans dropping leaves was ahead of their averages.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.12 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the

August 1 forecast and up 21 percent from last year’s crop. Favorable
moisture across the Southeast and the Virginia-Carolina regions during August
more than offset a decline in the Southwest. Harvested area, at 1.64 million
acres, remained unchanged at 3 percent below last year. Yields are expected to
average 2,508 pounds per harvested acre. up 17 pounds from last month and up
500 pounds from 1993,

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama. Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.46 billion pounds. This level represents a

1 percent increase from last month and amounts to 19 percent more than the 1993
crop. Yields for the 4-State area are expected to average 2,500 pounds per
acre, 492 pounds above last year. Drier conditions in Georgia through August
improved crop prospects by September 1. The Georgia crop was considered to be
1 percent excellent, 80 percent good, and 19 percent fair. Alabama’s crop
condition was rated as 14 percent good. 62 percent fair, and 24 percent poor by
early September. Alabama and Georgia reported 17 and 14 percent of the crop
dug, respectively, as of September 4, Each State was slightly ahead of their
respective normals, 12 and 7 percent, ‘for the date. Compaction on heavier soils
slowed digging in both States and some farmers elected to irrigate in order to
dig on a timely basis. Early indications of quality have been pleasing. In
Florida, continued excessive moisture slowed the beginning of harvest. Late
season moisture and cool temperatures slowed harvest progress in South Carolina
as well.

Virginia-North Carolina praduction is forecast at 704 million pounds, up

3 percent from last month and up 48 percent from last year’s drought-reduced
crop. Yield per harvested acre, at 2.907 pounds, is 899 pounds per acre above
last year’s average and 93 pounds above last month’s level. August moisture
maintained crop prospects in Virginia, while improving expectations in North
Carolina. Concerns about disease eased as initial indications point to less
damage than anticipated. All of the Virginia crop was in good condition, while
the North Carolina crop was rated as 7 percent excellent, 86 percent good, and
7 percent fair.

The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma. and Texas) is expected
to total 952 million pounds, down 3 percent from last month but 13 percent above
1993. Yields are expected to average 2,295 pounds per acre, 60 pounds below

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-6 NASS, USDA


last month's level but 288 pounds above last year. Dry conditions in Texas
contributed to a decline in overall prospects, although recent moisture in the
Cross Timbers area benefited the crop there. Irrigated acreage continued to
make good progress with little disease or insect pressure reported.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.2 million acres, is up 5 percent

from last year and is up 40,000 acres from last month. American-Pima
harvested acreage is unchanged from August at 173,600 acres. 8 percent below
1993.

The West Texas crop deteriorated during August due to continued hot, dry
weather. In early September, 27 percent of the Texas acreage was in good to
excellent condition, and 53 percent was in fair condition. Boll set was
virtually complete in Texas at 98 percent. 7 points ahead of the 5-year average.
Twenty-nine percent of the acreage showed open boils. 4 percent ahead of normal.
Objective yield data show the second highest count of large bolls since 1984,
but smal] bolls are the lowest. Squares ranked second lowest for the same
period. Plant counts are the highest of the past 10 years.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated cotton as mostly fair to good. Two-thirds of the Louisiana crop was
considered in good to excellent condition and 93 percent of Tennessee cotton was
in good condition. Boll opening exceeded the average pace except in Missouri
and Tennessee. Missouri open bolls equaled the 5-year average, while
Tennessee's crop was 1 point behind average. Mississippi boll opening, at

63 percent, was 17 percent ahead of the 5-year average. Fruit count was the
fifth highest for Arkansas and sixth highest for Louisiana and Mississippi since
1984. Boll counts for Arkansas ranked second for the past 10 years and fifth
for Mississippi. Preliminary boll weights were heavier than normal.

Louisiana's large bolls were the second lowest and small bolls ranked fifth,
during the same time period.

Ninety percent of Arizona’s crap was in good to excellent condition and

86 percent of bolls were opening in early September, slightly ahead of average.
Hot night temperatures decreased fruit retention. All of California's crop was
in good to excellent condition for the same time period and half of the acreage
had opened bolls, equalling the average. September 1 cotton objective yield
counts show Arizona with the second lowest total fruit, but the second highest
count of large bolls since 1984. California data show large bolls and small
bolls as the third and fourth lowest, respectively, during the past 10 years,
but preliminary boll weights are heavier than normal.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South
Carolina). spring rains allowed the crop to germinate well. Ninety-seven
percent of North Carolina's acreage is in good to excellent condition, and
83 percent of Georgia's crop is rated good to excellent. August weather in
Georgia was warm and dry, improving crop prospects. The early August storm
moved rapidly through the area without delaying development. Boll set in
Georgia, at 22 percent, lagged the average of 31 percent due to heavy plant
growth, South Carolina and Alabama cotton didn't progress as well, with
24 percent and 29 percent of the crop in fair condition. respectively. In
eastern portions of Alabama. the crop was subject to excessive rains which
stunted growth and caused above normal fruit loss. Hot weather in the northern
areas increased lower boll development, increasing potential.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-7 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed: Condition by State
and United States Average 1/

ir State :

State : Average 1993 1994 Average 1994
> 1983-92 : 1983-92
Percent Percent

AL : 73 80 94 rr NV : 69 96 65
AZ : 83 75 68 2: NH : 85 75 85
AR : 69 70 86 ri Nd : 82 50 100
CA : 69 74 56 2: NM : 86 74 60
co : 80 81 66 ri ONY : 74 75 92
CT : 83 55 95 ri NC : 75 64 89
DE : 73 54 94 ri OND : 61 97 79
FL : 84 78 86 :: OH : 74 70 85
GA : 70 44 95 :1 OK : 75 89 87
1D : 70 96 55 21 OR : 73 107 60
IL : 68 96 77 it PA : 70 61 93
IN : 71 90 73 i: ORE i 86 35 100
IA : 69 89 85 rr SC : 68 53 80
KS : 75 86 74 :: SD : 71 95 80
KY : 74 77 84 :: TN : 73 65 93
LA : 80 84 98 2: 1X : 64 63 64
ME : 81 65 85 :1 UT : 76 97 71
MD : 68 65 103 i: VT : 82 85 100
MA : 85 55 75 2: VA : 76 69 86
MI : 77 80 90 2: WA : 76 80 50
MN : 71 92 91 :2 OW : 71 65 97
MS : 75 91 81 f2 OWI : 73 86 82
MO : 66 82 73 2: WY : 79 100 67
MT : 69 99 76 tt :

NE 74 102 84 us 72 81 77

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49: extreme drought. under 35.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1993-94

-- 1,000 Pounds --

dul 3,805 3,245 2,450 2,145 5,210 4,430
Aug 3.410 3,255 2,445 2,155 5,045 4,310
Sep : 3,450 2,505 5,230
Oct > 3,435 2.455 4,875
Nov : 3,430 2,530 5,720
Dec 3.365 2,365 5,625

Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-Aug

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-28 NASS. USDA



Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States.
1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994
(Domestic Units)

Crop and Unit

Corn for Grain Bu: 100.7 129,

0 6,344,045 9,214,420 9,257,170

Sorghum for Grain “ : 59.9 68.3 567.867 661,200 635,030
Barley . : $8.9 56.3 400.225 388.760 385,453
All Wheat . : 38.3 38.1 2,402,055 2,385,817 2,361,303
Ourum "3 33.6 37.0 68.926 97,860 97,646
Other Spring * > 33.7 33.3 563,971 617,521 593,221
Rice L/ Cwt : 5,510 5,766 156,110 188,419 190, 288

Soybeans for Beans Bu : 32.0 38.2 1,808,538 2,282,367 2,316,077
Peanuts for Nuts Cb : 2,008 2,508 3.392.415 4,088,275 4,117,000

All Cotton l/ Bale: 606 682 16,144.9 19,194.6 19,024.6
Upland vy": 601 678 15,764.3 18,827.6 18,657.6
Amer-Pima i" : 967 1,015 380.6 367.0 367.0

Cottonseed Ton : 6,347.2 7,469.5 7,395.5

Potatoes :

Summer 2/ 5/ Cwt : 230 237 20,552 21,585 21,197
Total 2/ "2 326 428,693

Tobacco Lb : 2,159 2,280 1.613.591 1,558,789 1,541,572

Sugarbeets Ton: 18.6 20.7 26,249 29,228 29,818

Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed “: 32.8 33.1 31,101 31,394 31,164

Pasture and Range :

Feed 3/ Pet : 81 77

Pecans lb : 365.000 209,000

Hazelnuts 4/ Ton : 41.0 19.0 19.0

Walnuts (CA) 5/ " : 260.0 220.0 220.0

1/ Yield in pounds.

2/ 1993 revised.

3/ Pasture and Range Feed condition as of first of month. The 1983-92
average is 72 percent.

4/ August estimate as of mid-August.

5/ August estimate carried forward from July 1.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-4 NASS, USDA



Index

Crop Moisture Maps........ 00. eee eee eee eee

Crop Summary......... cc cece ee ee eee ee eee teens

Papayas - Hawaii... ... ce. cece
Pasture and Range Feed Condition........ teens
Peanuts for Nuts......... 0.00. cece eee

PECANS... cece eters

Sorghum for Grain........... cee cee cee eee
Soybeans for Beans.......... cc cece ec eee eee
Sugarbeets.......... cee eee eee
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed...........-..-.4
Tobacco by Class and Type..............-20 000s
Tobacco by StateS......... eee eee eee
Wheat, All... cece eee eee
Wheat, by Class... .... 2 cece cece eee
Wheat, Durum... 02. eee eee

Wheat, Other Spring.................e cep e eee

Crop Production
September 1994 B-14

Table
A-12
A-26
A-29
A-9
A-19
A-18

A- 3
A-29
A-28
A-28
A-18
A-30
A-20

A-15
A-11
A-16
A-27
A-27
A-24
A-23
A-13
A-15
A-14
A-14

Page

Narrative
B- 5
B- 9

B-11
B- 8
B-12
B-
B-

B-
B-

oo wo on Fa

B-

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between August 22 and September 2 to gather information on
expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat, corn,
soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually
account for at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots
were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected
Plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of
plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to
forecast the number of heads, ears, pods. or bolls and their weight. The counts
are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological
yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net
yield. The plots are re-visited each month until crop maturity when the fruit
is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample
field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 20,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were
also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their
analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB).
The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published
September 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised:

instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout the
growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a
balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports,
Processing. feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
Production forecast is made if there i$ strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1

production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error," a statistical
Measure based on paSt performance, is computed. The deviation between the
September 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1974-1993 20-year period is computed then the square root of the average
becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the “Root Mean Square Error” for the September 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 5.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-12 NASS, USDA


Wheat: Production by Class. United States.
1992-93 and Forecasted September 1, 1994 1/

Winter

1,000 Bushels

1992: 966,078 427,139 213,317 702.108 97,196 63,110 2,458,948

1993: 1,073,417 402,715 293,026 509,982 68,926 53,989 2,402,055
1994; = 972,195 440,736 257,505 539.464 97,646 53.757 2,361,303

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on the latest varietal acreage survey data
available. The previous end-of-season class percentages are used through
the forecast season, unless otherwise noted.

Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production

State : :

1993 : 1994 : 1993 1993 1994

1,000 Acres ---------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt ----
AR : 1,230 1,400 5,050 62,094 74,200
CA L 437 520 8,300 36,271 43,680
LA : 530 635 4.550 24,108 30.163
MS : 245 295 5.300 12,985 16.815
MO L/ 93 112 4,900 4,557 5,488
1X : 298 338 5,400 16.095 19,942
us : 2.833 3,300 5,510 156,110 190,288

i/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States,
1992-93 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All
1,000 Cwt
1992 : 128,015 50,633 1,010 179,658
1993 + 1031064 51.873 1,173 156.110
1994 1/ : (127,514 61.779 995 190, 288

1/ Indicated September 1, 1994, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-15 NASS, USDA


U.S. Soybean Production
1985 - 1994

Billion Bushels
00

2.00 5 f
1.80 Y
1.00 ]

Y

0.60

0.00

ts
8

1.92 — 1.93 -

N
TM
©

=
oe
o

Yl
|

COU Wi
CS

MW, CG

86 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94
Year

Crop Production
September 1994

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

1993 and Forecasted September 1

Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1994 (Domestic Units)

1994
1,000 Acres
Corn : 73,323 78,767 62,991 71,757
Sorghum : 10,492 10,199 9.486 9,299
Barley 7,826 7,307 6,791 6,848
All Wheat 72,208 70,468 62,647 61,971
Durum 2,191 2,695 2,050 2,639
Other Spring 18,290 18,226 16,751 17,834
Rice > 2,920.0 3,355.0 2,833.0 3,300.0
Soybeans : 59,355 61,775 56,447 60.702
Peanuts > 1,733.5 1,682.0 1,689.8 1,641.5
All Cotton > 13,438.3 13, 983.8 12,783.3 13,386.4
Upland 13, 248.3 13,808.8 12,594.4 13,212.8
Amer-Pima 190.9 175.0 188.9 173.6
Potatoes
Summer 2/ 94.1 93.9 89.2 89.3
Total 2/ 1,385.2 1,405.7 1,317.0 1,380.3
Tobacco : 747.5 676.1
Sugarbeets : 1,437.7 1,468.0 1,409.4 1,441.2
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed 948.3 942.6

1993 revised.

Crop Summary:
United States

Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie.,

grain, beans, nuts, etc.

Area Planted and Harvested,
1993-94 (Domestic Units)

1,000 Acres
6.700 3,793 4,132
49,547 43.846 41,498
1,628 381 404
3,430 2,504 3,291
189 191 182
60,398 60,315
24,762 24,683
35,636 35,632
1,971.7 1,600.0 1,819.8
12.4 13.6 12.3
91.6 83.8 90.4
1,207.8 1,130.4 1,188.3
84.5 80.2 81.2
43.1 42.4

Oats : 7,944
Winter Wheat : 51,727
Rye 1,493
Sunflower 2.776
Flaxseed 206
All Hay

Alfalfa

All Other
Ory Edible Beans 1,849.9
Potatoes

Winter 14.3

Spring 86.9

Fall 2/ 1,189.9
Sweetpotatoes 83.1
Hops
1/ 1994 estimates carried forward

2/1993 revised.

Crop Production
September 1994

from earlier forecast.

A-3

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Kansas sorghum endured a dry, windy August: although late month rains relieved
some stress. Lodging has reduced potential in some fields and several have been
cut for silage or baled for feed. The Texas sorghum crop condition dropped
during August. Low yields have been reported in the low plains: some fields
were cut for hay. Nebraska's crop is progressing about two weeks ahead of
average and is rated in mostly good condition. Favorable weather has helped the
Arkansas sorghum. Harvest was just starting as of September 1. Colorado's
sorghum is in very good condition with adequate soil moisture. Harvest in
Louisiana reached 30 percent by September 4, average is 52 percent.
Mississippi's crop is maturing well ahead of normal. Yields are better than
originally expected.

Barley: Production is forecast at 385 million bushels, down 1 percent from last

month and 4 percent below the 1993 crop. The expected yield per acre
is forecast at 56.3 bushels compared with last month’s 56.8 bushels and last
season’s 58.9 bushels. Area harvested and to be harvested, at 6.85 million
acres, is 1 percent above last year’s 6.79 million acres.

Harvest in the major producing States is running wel? ahead of Tast year's stow
pace. Expected yields are down from last month in Idaho and Minnesota but are
unchanged in Montana and North Dakota.

Durum Wheat: Total production is forecast at 97.6 million bushels, down

slightly from August 1 but up 42 percent from 1993. Yield
reductions in Minnesota and South Dakota are the reason for the drop in
production. Area for grain is unchanged at 2.64 million acres. The final yield
forecast is 37.0 bushels per acre, off 0.1 bushel from a month ago.

Montana's durum harvest is well ahead of normal. South Dakota's harvest was
virtually complete by September 1. As of September 4, only 48 percent of the
North Dakota durum was harvested. This is well ahead of last year but trails
the average progress by 13 points.

Rice: Total rice production is forecast at a record high 190 million cwt,

1 percent above the August forecast and 22 percent above the 1993 total.
Yield decreased in Mississippi but increased in Louisiana and Texas causing an
overall increase in U.S. rice yield to a record high 5,766 pounds. Arkansas,
California, and Missouri remained the same. Rice harvest is underway in
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas with al] but Louisiana ahead of
average. Rice is in mostly good condition.

Soybeans: Growers plan to harvest 60.7 million acres, unchanged from the August

estimate. The September Objective Yield Survey reported a record
high pod count for objective yield States. The percent of soybeans setting pods
was ahead of 1993 and the average by the end of August. The percent of soybeans
dropping leaves was ahead of 1993 and slightly ahead of the average by the
beginning of September. The average plant maturity is ahead of last year.
Soybeans are rated in mostly good condition.

In comparison with the 1990-94 time period, the 1994 number of pods per
18 square feet is the highest for lowa. Minnesota, Nebraska, and Ohio. These

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-5 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted September 1, 1994 J/ 2/

Utilized Production : Utilized Production
Crop : Boxes : Ton Equivalent
and Peetcr ccc ccc rece c eee e rere eee pec e rts ccc e cree cece reer eee
State : 1992-93 : 1993-94 : 1994-95 : 1992-93: 1993-94: 1994-9

Oranges

Early Mid &

Navel 4/ :
AZ : 700 700 26 26
CA t 43,800 36.600 37,000 1,642 1,372 1,388
FL : 114,300 107,300 5,143 4,829
TX : 450 480 20 21
US : 159,250 145,080 6,831 6.248

Valencia :
AZ : 1,150 1,200 43 45
CA : 23,000 26,000 863 975
FL : 72,300 66,900 3,253 3,010
TX : 60 70 2 3
US : 96.510 94,170 4,161 4,033

All t
AZ : 1,850 1,900 69 71
CA : 66,800 62,600 2,505 2,347
FL : 186,600 174,200 8,396 7,839
TX a 510 550 22 24
US : 255,760 239,250 10,992 10,281

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/ 1992-93 and 1993-94 revised. Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit
totals will be released September 23 in Citrus Fruits, 1994 Summary.

3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85: grapefruit-CA
Desert & AZ-64 in 1992-93 and earlier, 67-starting in 1993-94.
CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80: lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus &
Temples-90; tangerines-CA and AZ-75, FL-95.

4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-26 NASS, USDA


All wheat production is forecast at 2.36 billion bushels, down 1 and 2 percent
from the August 1 forecast and the 1993 production. respectively. The U.S.
yield is expected to average 38.1 bushels per acre. down 0.4 bushels from August
and 0.2 bushels less than last year. Total area for grain remains at

62.0 million acres, down 1 percent from last season.

Other spring wheat’s final 1994 production forecast is 593 million bushels, down
4 percent from August 1 but up 5 percent from 1993. Yield is forecast at

33.3 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from last month and 0.4 bushels below
last year. Harvested acreage is estimated at 17.8 million, unchanged from last
month but up 6 percent from last year.

California Navel orange production for 1994-95 is forecast at 37.0 million
boxes, up 1 percent from last year’s production of 36.6 million boxes. The
forecast is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in the California
Central Valley. The crop is maturing well with a set similar to last year but
with smaller sized fruit.

— — - oT — —s —_ —_

This report was approved on September 12, 1994, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Agricultural
Statistics Board.

Znwaus tio 04 Ub

Adting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Eugene Moos Rich Allen

((ubtsefnoe)

Acting Secretary of
Agriculture
Wardell C. Townsend, e

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-2 NASS, USDA





CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS, AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

NOAMUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on preliminary reports

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-1 NASS, USDA



very poor category. Pasture and range feed conditions were reported good to
excellent in 30 States.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.31 million pounds for

August. 3 percent lower than July and 15 percent lower than a year
ago. Year-to-date fresh sales were 4 percent ahead of the same 8-month period
of 1993.

August weather conditions were variable for papaya production. Increased
rainfall from passing tropical depressions improved soil moisture. However,
hot. humid conditions increased the need to spray for disease control.

Area devoted to papaya production is estimated at 3,255 acres, relatively
unchanged from last month but 5 percent lower than last August. Harvested area
totaled 2,155 acres, up slightly from July but 12 percent lower than a year ago.

California Fruits and Nuts: August was busy for fruit and nut growers.

Harvesting of apples intensified with Gala and
Granny Smith the main varieties being packed. Raisin grapes were laid on trays
for drying. Wine grape harvest was well underway by month's end with Alicante,
Muscats, Grenach. Chenin Blanc, Zinfindel, Chardonnay, and Gewurztraminer
varieties being picked. Table grape harvest continued. Peach and plum harvests
were active throughout the month with steady movement. Pear harvest gained
momentum in early August with good quality reported. Almond and prune harvests
were in full swing by the end of the month. Walnuts were treated for codling
moth and some growers prepared for harvest. Date harvest began in Riverside
County. Olive groves were treated for scale. Ground preparation for strawberry
planting continued and planting began by mid-month.

California Citrus: South Coast lemons, summer grapefruit, and Valencia orange
packing continued. New year citrus crops are maturing well
as August weather conditions were good for citrus growth.

Hazelnuts: Production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 19,000 tons this
year. At this level, production will be 54 percent below the 1993

record high and 31 percent below 1992. Oregon's portion of the crop.

18,900 tons, is less than one-half of the 40.800 tons grown in 1993. Washington

growers expect 100 tons, compared with 200 tons grown in 1993.

Weather during pollination was good but spotty across the producing area. There
were low counts of catkins on trees at the end of last season and bloom in the
spring was light. Heavy pruning and removal of “temporary” trees also
contributed to lower expectations. The alternate bearing cycle exhibited by
hazelnuts added to the lighter crop. The hot, dry summer stressed trees in many
orchards. Harvest is expected to begin about a week ahead of normal.

Objective survey counts on nuts picked in Oregon and Washington orchards were

the lowest since 1983 and 60 percent below last year’s record counts. The
percentage of good nuts was also below 1992 and 1993 but above 1989-91. Average

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 B-10 NASS, USDA


Nuts: Utilized Production by Crop and State,
1992-93 and Forecasted September 1, 1994
Utilized Production
Crop and State See

Hazelnuts :
OR : 27,500 40,800 18,900
WA : 200 200 100
Total : 27,700 41,000 19,000
Walnuts :
cA 203,000 260,000 220.000

State Pete re ee cee ee ne ne ee ne een eee ne ene eee eee eee ee
: 1991-1992 1992-1993 1993-1994
1,000 Pounds
HI 2,800 2.400 2,900
1/ Parchment basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-29 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Area Harvested Production
State

1993 1994 1993 1994

1,000 Acres --- 1,000 Bushels ---
AL 1/ : 95 95 3,230 3,800
AZ 1/ : 85 123 7,790 11,396
AR 1/ > 1,000 900 40,000 43,200
CA L/ : 540 569 43,800 46,405
co 1/ > 2,583 2,642 96,990 84,044
DE L/ : 63 70 3,591 3,500
FL 1/ : 25 20 825 840
GAl/ : 360 400 13, 680 21,200
1D > 1,390 1,430 110,350 108,510
IL + 1,559 300 68,200 51,300
IN 1/ : 670 630 34,840 38,430
IA L/ : 40 50 1,000 2,250
KS 1/ : 11,100 11,400 388,500 421,800
KY 1/ : 470 450 23,030 26,550
LA 1/ : 95 80 2,375 3.040
MO U/ : 200 220 10,800 10,780
MI d/ : 540 580 22,140 29,000
MN : 2,298 2,627 71,190 81,355
MS 1/ : 210 160 6,930 7,200
MO 1/ : 1,400 1,100 53,200 49,500
MT > 5,214 5.328 204,484 172,968
NE L/  : 2,100 2,000 73,500 66,000
NV 1/ : 9 9 800 730
NJ 1/ : 33 35 1,419 1,575
NM 1/ : 270 240 6,210 5.280
NY 1/ : 85 110 3,910 5,610
NC 1/ : 560 620 23,520 31,620
ND : 10.800 11,285 335.060 374,655
OH 1/ > 1,010 1,200 52,520 69,600
OK 1/ : 5,400 5.300 162,000 143,100
OR 1/ : 925 932 64,960 59,090
PA 1/ : 165 165 7.425 8,250
sc 1/ : 260 360 9,880 19,440
SD : 3,488 3,319 111,522 94,394
TN L/ : 340 290 13.940 14,500
TM 1/ > 3,700 3,000 118.400 78,000
UT 1/ : 180 182 7,270 7,732
VA 1/ : 255 255 13,515 14,280
WA : 2,790 2,545 177,580 138.600
WV 1/ : 11 11 473 484
WI 1/ : 125 141 4,660 6,885
WY 1/ : 213 198 6,546 4,410
us : 62,647 61,971 38.3 38.5 38.1 2,402,055 2,361,303

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-13 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993 and Forecasted September 1, 1994

Production

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres - --- 1,000 Bushels --
AL : 295 300 24.0 29.0 29.0 7,080 8,700
AR : 3,450 3,250 25.0 32.0 32.0 86,250 104,000
DE : 215 220 23.0 34.0 33.0 4,945 7,260
FL L/ : 50 40 25.0 24.0 24.0 1,250 960
GA : 480 500 17.0 30.0 30.0 8,160 15,000
IL > 8,700 9,400 43.0 43.0 43.0 374,100 404,200
IN : 4,850 4,680 44.0 43.0 43.0 213,400 201,240
IA : 8,200 8,850 30.0 44.0 46.0 246,000 407,100
KS : 1,850 2,050 28.0 33.0 32.0 51,800 65,600
KY : 1,150 1,120 33.0 35.0 33.0 37,950 36,960
LA : 1,250 1,150 23.0 26.0 27.0 28,750 31,050
MD : 570 550 26.0 36.0 37.0 14,820 20,350
MI : 1,440 1,540 38.0 35.0 35.0 54,720 53,900
MN 5,000 5,600 22.0 39.0 39.0 110,000 218.400
MS 1,950 1,900 22.0 27.0 27.0 42.900 51,300
MO 3,550 4,540 33.0 33.0 33.0 117,150 149,820
NE > 2,500 2,850 35.0 40.0 41.0 87,500 116,850
NJ 1/ : 147 147 29.0 31.0 31.0 4,263 4,557
NC : 1,200 1,350 24.0 29.0 29.0 28,800 39,150
ND : 540 610 17.0 24.0 26.0 9,180 15,860
OH : 4,040 3,850 38.0 40.0 44.0 153,520 169.400
OK i/ : 260 280 24.0 27.0 27.0 6,240 7,560
PA 1/ : 295 315 39.0 40.0 40.0 11,505 12,600
Sc : 520 620 15.0 23.0 23.0 7,800 14,260
SD : 1,700 2,400 21.0 30.0 30.0 35,700 72,000
TN : 990 1,050 31.0 33.0 32.0 30,690 33,600
TX : 205 200 19.0 28.0 30.0 3,895 6,000
VA : 470 520 21.0 30.0 30.0 9,870 15,600
WI : 580 820 35.0 40.0 40.0 20,300 32,800
US : 56,447 60,702 32.0 37.6 38.2 1,808,538 2,316,077

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
September 1994 A-16 NASS, USDA