Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released January 10, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department 

of Agriculture (USDA).

Orange Production Down 5 Percent from December Forecast 

The United States all orange forecast for the 2013-2014 season is 7.39 million tons, down 5 percent from the previous 

forecast and down 11 percent from the 2012-2013 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 115 million boxes 

(5.18 million tons), is down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 14 percent from last season’s final utilization. 

Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 54.0 million boxes (2.43 million tons), down 4 percent 

from the previous forecast and down 20 percent from last season. Current droppage is projected to be the highest in a 

series dating back to the 1960-1961 season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 61.0 million boxes (2.75 million 

tons), is down 6 percent from the previous forecast and down 8 percent from last season’s final utilization. 

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2013-2014 season is 1.61 gallons per box at 

42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the December forecast but up 1 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.59 gallons 

per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.51 gallons per box, unchanged from last season’s yield. The 

Valencia portion is projected at 1.71 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last year’s final yield of 1.69 gallons per box. All 

projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. 
2 Crop Production (January 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

This report was approved on January 10, 2014.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Michael T. Scuse

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Hubert Hamer
Crop Production (January 2014) 3

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Contents

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2012-2013 and Forecasted 

January 1, 2014 ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2012 and 2013 .................................................. 5

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 2013 and 2014..................... 6

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 2013 and 2014 ......................... 8

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2013 and 2014 (Domestic Units).................................................................... 10

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2013 and 2014....................................................................... 11

Percent of Normal Precipitation Map ................................................................................................................................... 12

Departure from Normal Temperature Map........................................................................................................................... 12

December Weather Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 13

December Agricultural Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 13

Crop Comments.................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Statistical Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................ 15

Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 16
4 Crop Production (January 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States and United States: 2012-2013 and 

Forecasted January 1, 2014 

[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year]

Crop and State Utilized production boxes 1 Utilized production ton equivalent

2012-2013 2013-2014 2012-2013 2013-2014

(1,000 boxes) (1,000 boxes) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Oranges

Early, mid, and Navel 2

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Valencia

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

All

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Grapefruit

White

 Florida ...............................................

Colored

 Florida ...............................................

All

 California ...........................................

 Florida ...............................................

 Texas ................................................

 United States ....................................

Tangerines and mandarins

Arizona 3 ...............................................

California 3 ............................................

Florida ...................................................

United States ........................................

Lemons 

Arizona .................................................

California ..............................................

United States ........................................

Tangelos

Florida ...................................................

44,000

67,100

1,499

112,599

12,500

66,500

289

79,289

56,500

133,600

1,788

191,888

5,250

13,100

4,000

18,350

6,100

28,450

200

13,000

3,280

16,480

1,800

21,000

22,800

1,000

42,000

54,000

1,455

97,455

11,500

61,000

370

72,870

53,500

115,000

1,825

170,325

4,500

12,000

4,000

16,500

5,370

25,870

200

13,200

3,400

16,800

1,785

20,000

21,785

1,000

1,760

3,020

64

4,844

500

2,993

12

3,505

2,260

6,013

76

8,349

223

557

160

780

244

1,184

8

520

156

684

72

840

912

45

1,680

2,430

62

4,172

460

2,745

16

3,221

2,140

5,175

78

7,393

191

510

160

701

215

1,076

8

528

162

698

71

800

871

45

1 Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in 

Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90. 2 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines 

in Texas and Temples in Florida.

3 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production (January 2014) 5

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Hay Stocks on Farms – States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2012 and 2013 

State May 1 December 1

2012 2013 2012 2013

(1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons)

Alabama ....................

Arizona ......................

Arkansas ...................

California ...................

Colorado ....................

Connecticut ...............

Delaware ...................

Florida .......................

Georgia .....................

Idaho .........................

Illinois ........................

Indiana ......................

Iowa ...........................

Kansas ......................

Kentucky ....................

Louisiana ...................

Maine ........................

Maryland ....................

Massachusetts ...........

Michigan ....................

Minnesota ..................

Mississippi .................

Missouri .....................

Montana ....................

Nebraska ...................

Nevada ......................

New Hampshire .........

New Jersey ................

New Mexico ...............

New York ...................

North Carolina ...........

North Dakota .............

Ohio ...........................

Oklahoma ..................

Oregon ......................

Pennsylvania .............

Rhode Island .............

South Carolina ...........

South Dakota .............

Tennessee .................

Texas ........................

Utah ...........................

Vermont .....................

Virginia ......................

Washington ...............

West Virginia .............

Wisconsin ..................

Wyoming ...................

United States .............

269

35

340

240

230

12

4

42

169

700

300

165

500

650

775

70

35

80

15

360

900

251

1,025

1,550

1,070

238

13

12

120

327

369

1,700

308

500

275

450

1

80

2,400

716

950

350

45

900

230

285

925

400

21,381

215

35

170

320

360

7

3

25

250

570

155

110

290

460

470

150

22

75

12

140

490

200

600

860

610

140

10

15

105

150

240

880

140

700

230

300

1

110

850

425

1,650

230

36

410

180

145

410

200

14,156

1,620

240

1,150

1,900

1,600

52

17

470

1,200

2,100

1,050

900

1,840

3,000

3,400

905

127

310

81

850

2,800

1,365

4,600

3,800

3,050

650

49

119

600

1,800

1,200

4,500

1,200

2,900

1,700

1,700

7

440

4,300

2,700

6,100

900

200

2,300

1,200

795

1,810

950

76,547

1,470

200

2,150

1,900

1,400

50

32

460

1,150

2,350

1,150

1,040

2,750

4,500

4,200

500

120

290

69

1,140

3,180

1,250

5,900

4,700

3,800

650

21

110

400

2,000

1,380

4,900

1,500

3,900

1,700

2,000

7

440

5,400

3,370

5,900

1,250

205

2,450

1,200

870

2,900

1,000

89,304
6 Crop Production (January 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2013 and 2014 

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop Area planted Area harvested

2013 2014 2013 2014

(1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1 ....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all ................................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1 .............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all ............................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all ...........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all ........................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 2 ....................................................................

3,480

95,365

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

3,010

720

2,489

1,446

8,061

(NA)

56,156

43,090

1,470

11,596

1,348.0

(X)

181

45.0

1,067.0

1.7

175.5

76,533

1,575.5

10,407.0

10,206.0

201.0

1,198.1

(NA)

(NA)

18.0

1,354.7

860.0

362.0

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,066.5

75.9

48.7

941.9

(NA)

115.7

(NA)

41,892

3,000

87,668

6,256

58,257

17,763

40,494

1,030

638

2,468

278

6,530

380

45,157

32,402

1,421

11,334

1,264.5

(X)

172

43.4

1,042.0

1.7

170.0

75,869

1,474.6

7,664.4

7,465.0

199.4

1,154.2

905.6

355.7

14.1

1,311.3

797.0

347.0

(NA)

7.3

35.2

68.8

1,052.0

72.9

47.5

931.6

24.5

113.2

0.4

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (January 2014) 7

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units – United States: 

2013 and 2014 (continued) 

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop Yield per acre Production

2013 2014 2013 2014

(1,000) (1,000)

Grains and hay

Barley ................................................................................... bushels

Corn for grain ........................................................................ bushels

Corn for silage ............................................................................tons

Hay, all .......................................................................................tons

 Alfalfa .....................................................................................tons

 All other ..................................................................................tons

Oats ...................................................................................... bushels

Proso millet ........................................................................... bushels

Rice 3 ........................................................................................... cwt

Rye ....................................................................................... bushels

Sorghum for grain ................................................................. bushels

Sorghum for silage ......................................................................tons

Wheat, all ............................................................................. bushels

 Winter ............................................................................... bushels

 Durum ............................................................................... bushels

 Other spring ...................................................................... bushels

Oilseeds

Canola ...................................................................................pounds

Cottonseed .................................................................................tons

Flaxseed ............................................................................... bushels

Mustard seed .........................................................................pounds

Peanuts .................................................................................pounds

Rapeseed ..............................................................................pounds

Safflower ...............................................................................pounds

Soybeans for beans .............................................................. bushels

Sunflower ..............................................................................pounds

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 3 ...............................................................................bales

 Upland 3 ................................................................................bales

 American Pima 3 ...................................................................bales

Sugarbeets .................................................................................tons

Sugarcane ..................................................................................tons

Tobacco .................................................................................pounds

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas 3 .................................................................. cwt

Dry edible beans 3 ....................................................................... cwt

Dry edible peas 3 ......................................................................... cwt

Lentils 3 ........................................................................................ cwt

Wrinkled seed peas ..................................................................... cwt

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ......................................................................pounds

Hops ......................................................................................pounds

Peppermint oil ........................................................................pounds

Potatoes, all ................................................................................. cwt

 Spring ...................................................................................... cwt

 Summer ................................................................................... cwt

 Fall .......................................................................................... cwt

Spearmint oil .........................................................................pounds

Sweet potatoes ............................................................................ cwt

Taro (Hawaii) .........................................................................pounds

71.7

158.8

18.8

2.33

3.24

1.94

64.0

28.9

7,694

27.6

59.6

14.3

47.2

47.4

43.6

47.1

1,748

(X)

19.5

846

4,006

1,141

1,232

43.3

1,378

826

807

1,530

28.5

35.6

2,036

1,617

1,867

1,960

1,446

(NA)

960

1,969

89

416

304

363

427

119

219

(NA)

215,078

13,925,147

117,851

135,946

57,581

78,365

65,879

18,436

189,886

7,669

389,046

5,420

2,129,695

1,534,253

61,913

533,529

2,210,505

4,406.0

3,356

36,727

4,174,180

1,940

209,461

3,288,833

2,032,725

13,186.7

12,551.0

635.7

32,837

32,205

724,108

228

24,486

15,620

5,019

275

7,000

69,343.9

6,132

437,483

22,137

17,240

398,106

2,926

24,785

3,100

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes. 2 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres.

3 Yield in pounds.
8 Crop Production (January 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2013 and 2014 

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop Area planted Area harvested

2013 2014 2013 2014

(hectares) (hectares) (hectares) (hectares)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain 1 ....................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2 .............................................................................

 Alfalfa ..............................................................................

 All other ...........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain 1 .............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2 .........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower .............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ............................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2 .........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ................................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2 ......................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall ..................................................................................

Spearmint oil .......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) 3 ....................................................................

1,408,320

38,593,260

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

1,218,120

291,380

1,007,270

585,180

3,262,210

(NA)

22,725,770

17,438,090

594,890

4,692,790

545,520

(X)

73,250

18,210

431,800

690

71,020

30,972,140

637,590

4,211,610

4,130,270

81,340

484,860

(NA)

(NA)

7,280

548,230

348,030

146,500

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

431,600

30,720

19,710

381,180

(NA)

46,820

(NA)

16,953,270

1,214,070

35,478,360

2,531,740

23,576,030

7,188,510

16,387,520

416,830

258,190

998,770

112,500

2,642,630

153,780

18,274,590

13,112,770

575,060

4,586,760

511,730

(X)

69,610

17,560

421,690

690

68,800

30,703,430

596,760

3,101,710

3,021,010

80,700

467,090

366,490

143,940

5,710

530,670

322,540

140,430

(NA)

2,950

14,250

27,840

425,730

29,500

19,220

377,010

9,910

45,810

160

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production (January 2014) 9

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units – United States: 

2013 and 2014 (continued) 

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year. 

Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop Yield per hectare Production

2013 2014 2013 2014

(metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons)

Grains and hay

Barley .................................................................................

Corn for grain ......................................................................

Corn for silage ....................................................................

Hay, all 2 .............................................................................

 Alfalfa .............................................................................

 All other ..........................................................................

Oats ....................................................................................

Proso millet .........................................................................

Rice ....................................................................................

Rye .....................................................................................

Sorghum for grain ...............................................................

Sorghum for silage ..............................................................

Wheat, all 2 .........................................................................

 Winter .............................................................................

 Durum .............................................................................

 Other spring ....................................................................

Oilseeds

Canola ................................................................................

Cottonseed .........................................................................

Flaxseed .............................................................................

Mustard seed ......................................................................

Peanuts ..............................................................................

Rapeseed ...........................................................................

Safflower ............................................................................

Soybeans for beans ............................................................

Sunflower ...........................................................................

Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops

Cotton, all 2 .........................................................................

 Upland ............................................................................

 American Pima ...............................................................

Sugarbeets .........................................................................

Sugarcane ..........................................................................

Tobacco ..............................................................................

Dry beans, peas, and lentils

Austrian winter peas ...........................................................

Dry edible beans .................................................................

Dry edible peas ...................................................................

Lentils .................................................................................

Wrinkled seed peas ............................................................

Potatoes and miscellaneous

Coffee (Hawaii) ...................................................................

Hops ...................................................................................

Peppermint oil .....................................................................

Potatoes, all 2 .....................................................................

 Spring .............................................................................

 Summer ..........................................................................

 Fall .................................................................................

Spearmint oil ......................................................................

Sweet potatoes ...................................................................

Taro (Hawaii) ......................................................................

3.86

9.97

42.23

5.23

7.27

4.34

2.29

1.62

8.62

1.73

3.74

31.97

3.17

3.18

2.93

3.17

1.96

(X)

1.22

0.95

4.49

1.28

1.38

2.92

1.55

0.93

0.90

1.72

63.78

79.72

2.28

1.81

2.09

2.20

1.62

(NA)

1.07

2.21

0.10

46.61

34.04

40.68

47.90

0.13

24.54

(NA)

4,682,770

353,715,030

106,912,630

123,328,140

52,236,600

71,091,530

956,230

418,120

8,613,080

194,800

9,882,220

4,916,940

57,960,800

41,755,520

1,685,000

14,520,280

1,002,670

3,997,060

85,250

16,660

1,893,380

880

95,010

89,507,370

922,030

2,871,070

2,732,660

138,410

29,789,230

29,215,880

328,450

10,340

1,110,670

708,510

227,660

12,470

3,180

31,450

2,780

19,843,900

1,004,120

781,990

18,057,790

1,330

1,124,230

1,410

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Area planted for all purposes.

2 Total may not add due to rounding.

3 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
10 Crop Production (January 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production – United States: 2013 and 2014 (Domestic Units) 

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2013-2014 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2013 2014

(1,000) (1,000)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit .....................................................................................................................tons

Lemons ........................................................................................................................tons

Oranges .......................................................................................................................tons

Tangelos (Florida) ........................................................................................................tons

Tangerines and mandarins ...........................................................................................tons

Noncitrus

Apples ........................................................................................................... 1,000 pounds

Apricots ........................................................................................................................tons

Bananas (Hawaii) ....................................................................................................pounds

Grapes .........................................................................................................................tons

Olives (California) ........................................................................................................tons

Papayas (Hawaii) ....................................................................................................pounds

Peaches .......................................................................................................................tons

Pears ...........................................................................................................................tons

Prunes, dried (California) .............................................................................................tons

Prunes and plums (excludes California) .......................................................................tons

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ..................................................................................pounds

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .........................................................................................tons

Pecans, in-shell .......................................................................................................pounds

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........................................................................................tons

Maple syrup ............................................................................................................ gallons

1,184

912

8,349

45

684

3,253

1,076

871

7,393

45

698

(NA) Not available.

(X) Not applicable.

1 Production years are 2012-2013 and 2013-2014.
Crop Production (January 2014) 11

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units – United States: 2013 and 2014 

[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2014 crop year, 

except citrus which is for the 2013-2014 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

Crop

Production

2013 2014

(metric tons) (metric tons)

Citrus 1

Grapefruit ...........................................................................................................................

Lemons ..............................................................................................................................

Oranges ..............................................................................................................................

Tangelos (Florida) ..............................................................................................................

Tangerines and mandarins .................................................................................................

Noncitrus

Apples ................................................................................................................................

Apricots ..............................................................................................................................

Bananas (Hawaii) ...............................................................................................................

Grapes ...............................................................................................................................

Olives (California) ...............................................................................................................

Papayas (Hawaii) ...............................................................................................................

Peaches .............................................................................................................................

Pears ..................................................................................................................................

Prunes, dried (California) ....................................................................................................

Prunes and plums (excludes California) ..............................................................................

Nuts and miscellaneous

Almonds, shelled (California) ..............................................................................................

Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...............................................................................................

Pecans, in-shell ..................................................................................................................

Walnuts, in-shell (California) ...............................................................................................

Maple syrup ........................................................................................................................

1,074,110

827,350

7,574,090

40,820

620,510

16,260

976,130

790,160

6,706,820

40,820

633,210

1 Production years are 2012-2013 and 2013-2014.
12

 Crop Production (January 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production (January 2014) 13

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

December Weather Summary

Winter got off to an early start across much of the Nation, with very cold air settling into the western and central United 

States and snow covering more than half of the country for several days.

December storminess was widespread, except in the West, where a potential third consecutive winter of drought got 

underway in California and the Great Basin. In addition, an early-season cold wave gripped much of the West during the 

first half of the month, possibly harming citrus in California’s San Joaquin Valley and sending temperatures plummeting 

below -40°F at a few locations in Montana.

Meanwhile, several impressive storms affected the East, where multiple rain and snow events chipped away at autumn 

precipitation deficits. At times, snow also blanketed portions of the Plains and Midwest, with winter’s chill deepening in 

those regions as the month progressed. By the end of December, temperatures across the upper Great Lakes region 

rivaled those observed in the West a few weeks earlier.

However, the Southeast was spared from the cold weather, with temperatures regularly topping 80°F and remaining 

unusually high through month’s end. In fact, several Southeastern locations set or tied records for December warmth.

Elsewhere, most of the Nation’s winter wheat headed into its period of dormancy with few concerns. On the Great Plains, 

well over half of the wheat was rated in good to excellent condition at the end of December in states such as South Dakota 

(70% good to excellent), Nebraska (65%), Oklahoma (63%), Montana (60%), and Kansas (58%). However, drought 

concerns persisted on the southern High Plains, including Texas’ northern panhandle.

December Agricultural Summary

December temperatures were below-normal for most areas across the Nation, with notable exceptions in California, the 

Southeast, and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. The only extended areas with over 3 inches above normal 

precipitation occurred in Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, areas suffering 

drought conditions on December 31 were limited to the western United States with areas of extreme drought in the 

Southern Plains, Texas, California, Nevada and Idaho. 

In California, relatively dry conditions allowed producers to complete normal agricultural winter activities including 

plowing down of cotton fields and irrigation and pruning of orchards and vineyards. Freezing temperatures recorded in 

parts of the State caused citrus growers to protect groves from frost by setting up wind machines, irrigation, and other 

measures to minimize damage to trees and fruit. Throughout the month, winter wheat conditions declined due to lack of 

precipitation and wind damage.

During the month of December, Florida producers experienced above-average temperatures and below-average 

precipitation. These conditions allowed for the continuation of the winter vegetable harvest and development of those 

crops. Growers and caretakers of citrus groves continued to irrigate due to dry conditions. Field workers continue to report 

small sizes on all varieties.

Most of the winter wheat crop is being reported in good or excellent condition. By December 29, the portion of the Plains’ 

wheat rated in good to excellent condition included 63 percent in Oklahoma, 58 percent in Kansas, and 65 percent in 

Nebraska. 

Crop Comments 

Grapefruit: The 2013-2014 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.08 million tons, down slightly from the 

December forecast and down 9 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, fruit size is near normal and 

droppage is above average for both white and colored grapefruit. 
14 Crop Production (January 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Lemons: The forecast for the 2013-2014 United States lemon crop is 871,000 tons, down 4 percent from last season’s 

final utilization. In California, lemons were harvested from all growing regions. Demand continues to be excellent in 

domestic and export markets. In Arizona, the quality of lemons is reportedly fair while demand remains outstanding. 

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), unchanged from the December forecast and last 

season’s final utilization. The forecasted fruit per tree is up from last year. Fruit size is below normal while droppage is 

above average.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 698,000 tons, down 3 percent 

from the December forecast but up 2 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, harvest of Fallglo varieties is 

complete for the season and harvest of Sunburst is expected to be complete this month. Projected Honey fruit size is 

below normal while the projected droppage rate is slightly above average. 

Florida citrus: High temperatures for the month began in the low 80s and upper 70s and rose to the lower and mid 80s by 

month’s end. Rainfall was scattered and generally light as the dry season continues. The abnormally dry conditions 

observed in the citrus producing regions remained fairly consistent, leaving only the western area completely drought free. 

Field workers are reporting small sizes on all varieties. Grove activity included resetting of new trees, pushing of dead 

groves and replanting new citrus, mowing, fertilizing and psyllid control. About 91 percent of the packinghouses have 

opened and begun shipping small quantities of fruit. Sixteen of nineteen processing plants are open so far this season.

California citrus: Citrus growers worked to protect groves from December frosts. Growers set up wind machines, 

irrigation, and other measures to minimize damage to trees and fruit. Citrus harvest was slowed due to the freezing 

temperatures. Navel oranges sustained some freeze damage. Damaged fruit was sent to be juiced. Navel orange harvest 

continued, along with the harvest of lemons, Oroblanco and melogold grapefruits, and pomelos. Satsuma mandarin and 

Owari and Clementine tangerine harvests continued.

California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Persimmon, pomegranate, and kiwi harvests were finished. Apple harvest was 

nearly complete. The table grape harvest was complete. Wine Grape harvest was complete; grapevines were dormant and 

pruning was ongoing. Avocado harvest began. Orchards and vineyards were irrigated due to the lack of rain. The harvest 

of walnuts was complete. Harvested walnut, almond, and pistachio orchards were pruned, irrigated, and fertilized. Tree 

removals were ongoing and land was prepared for tree planting. Nut crops were being sprayed with dormant sprays.

Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms December 1, 2013 totaled 89.3 million tons, up 17 percent 

from a year ago. Disappearance from May 1, 2013 - December 1, 2013 totaled 60.5 million tons, compared with 

64.7 million tons for the same period a year earlier.

Hay stocks were up from low 2012 levels as improved weather conditions lead to larger production totals in many states 

when compared with last year’s drought. Hay stocks decreased in the Southeast, Delta and Southwest where production 

was lower in 2013.
Crop Production (January 2014) 15

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Statistical Methodology 

Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which 

produces about 68 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season 

based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or 

special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and 

subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous 

components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer 

surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in 

September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were 

also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural 

Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast.

Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month 

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in 

September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including 

information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization 

and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square 

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production 

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage 

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean 

Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 

final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing 

recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 3.3 percent regardless if you exclude the 

three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 

that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.3 percent. 

Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.7 percent regardless of whether 

abnormal seasons are excluded.

Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 

287,000 tons regardless of whether abnormal seasons are excluded, ranging from 2,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of 

exclusions. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 

7 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this 

year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
16 Crop Production (January 2014)

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Information Contacts 

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact 

for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch .......................................................................................................(202) 720-2127

Anthony Prillaman, Head, Field Crops Section .................................................................................... (202) 720-2127

 Cody Brokmeyer – Peanuts, Rice..................................................................................................... (202) 720-7688

 Brent Chittenden – Oats, Rye, Wheat .............................................................................................. (202) 720-8068

 Angie Considine – Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................................................... (202) 720-5944

 Tony Dahlman – Crop Weather, Barley, Hay.................................................................................. (202) 720-7621

 Chris Hawthorn – Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet .............................................................................. (202) 720-9526

 Travis Thorson – Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..................................................................(202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............................................(202) 720-2127

 Jorge Garcia-Pratts – Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries...............................(202) 720-2127

 Jorge Garcia-Pratts – Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ............................................(202) 720-2127

 Fred Granja – Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ...............................................(202) 720-4288

 LaKeya Jones – Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits............................................(202) 720-5412

 Dave Losh – Hops............................................................................................................................(360) 709-2400 

 Dan Norris – Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint,

 Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ..................................................(202) 720-3250

 Daphne Schauber – Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ...............................................(202) 720-4285
Access to NASS Reports 

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways:

 All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov

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subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the “Follow NASS” box under “Receive reports by Email,” 

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For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 

7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 

 

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