Cr Pr 2-2 (2-10)

Crop Production

Washington, D.C.

Released February 9, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of 

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down 3 Percent from January

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2009-10 season is 7.94 million tons, down 3 percent from the January 1 

forecast and down 14 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 

129 million boxes (5.81 million tons), is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 21 percent 

from last season’s final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 

66.0 million boxes (2.97 million tons), down 4 percent from January 1 and 22 percent lower than last season. 

The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 63.0 million boxes (2.84 million tons), is 5 percent below the 

previous forecast and down 19 percent from the 2008-09 crop. Eight days of sub-freezing temperatures were 

recorded during the period of January 5-13, 2010. A freeze damage survey was conducted January 26-27, 

2010. Additional assessments will be made through mid-March. Fruit size decreased for the early, 

midseason, and Navel varieties, while fruit drop increased. Fruit size has been below average for the 

Valencia crop all season.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2009-10 season is 1.56 gallons per 

box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 3 percent from the January 1 forecast and down 6 percent from last season’s 

final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.50 gallons per box, down 

6 percent from last season’s record yield of 1.60 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is expected to total

1.65 gallons per box, 6 percent lower than last year’s final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of 

yield assume the processing relationship this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on February 9, 2010.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James W. Miller

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Carol C. House
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas..........................................................................................................................................................4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit ......................................................................................................................................................5

Lemons..........................................................................................................................................................5

Oranges..........................................................................................................................................................5

Tangelos........................................................................................................................................................5

Tangerines and Mandarins............................................................................................................................5

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Sugarcane ......................................................................................................................................................4

Crop Comments.........................................................................................................................................14

Crop Summary ............................................................................................................................................6

Information Contacts................................................................................................................................17

Reliability of Production Data in this Report.........................................................................................16

Weather Maps ...........................................................................................................................................12

Weather Summary ....................................................................................................................................13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2008-2009

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1Production 1

2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

384.0

20.4

380.0

37.2

821.6

17.0

2.4

25.0

2.0

46.4

401.0

22.8

405.0

39.2

868.0

372.0

19.7

390.0

39.0

820.7

18.0

2.0

35.0

2.0

57.0

390.0

21.7

425.0

41.0

877.7

32.9

69.7

28.3

35.5

31.8

36.5

30.0

28.3

35.5

31.7

33.1

65.5

28.3

35.5

31.8

36.1

71.0

31.0

35.0

34.5

36.3

30.0

31.0

35.0

32.8

36.1

67.2

31.0

35.0

34.4

12,634

1,422

10,754

1,321

26,131

621

72

708

71

1,472

13,255

1,494

11,462

1,392

27,603

13,429

1,399

12,090

1,365

28,283

653

60

1,085

70

1,868

14,082

1,459

13,175

1,435

30,151

1 Net tons.

2 Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2009 Summary."

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2008-2009

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2008 2009

2008 2009 2008 2009

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Nov

Dec

2,420

2,410

1,975

1,975

1,450

1,460

1,320

1,320

2,745

2,850

2,500

2,645

1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2007-08, 2008-09 and Forecasted February 1, 2010 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

1,000 Boxes 21,000 Boxes 21,000 Boxes 21,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early, Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 5

 FL

 TX 5

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 5

 FL

 TX 5

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 5

 FL

 TX 5

 US

Grapefruit

 White

 FL

 Colored

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 5

 FL

 TX 5

 US

Tangerines and Mandarins

 AZ 5 6

 CA 5 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 5

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

230

45,000

83,500

1,600

130,330

150

17,000

86,700

196

104,046

380

62,000

170,200

1,796

234,376

9,000

17,600

100

5,200

26,600

6,000

37,900

400

6,700

5,500

12,600

1,500

14,800

16,300

1,500

150

34,500

84,600

1,300

120,550

100

14,000

77,800

159

92,059

250

48,500

162,400

1,459

212,609

6,600

15,100

25

5,600

21,700

5,500

32,825

250

6,700

3,850

10,800

3,000

22,000

25,000

1,150

40,000

66,000

1,310

107,310

15,000

63,000

277

78,277

55,000

129,000

1,587

185,587

5,300

13,500

4,200

18,800

5,490

28,490

350

8,200

4,000

12,550

2,500

20,000

22,500

900

9

1,688

3,758

68

5,523

6

637

3,901

9

4,553

15

2,325

7,659

77

10,076

383

748

3

174

1,131

240

1,548

15

251

261

527

57

562

619

68

5

1,294

3,807

55

5,161

4

525

3,501

7

4,037

9

1,819

7,308

62

9,198

280

642

1

188

922

220

1,331

9

251

183

443

114

836

950

52

1,500

2,970

56

4,526

563

2,835

12

3,410

2,063

5,805

68

7,936

225

574

141

799

220

1,160

13

308

190

511

95

760

855

41

1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year.

2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; 

tangerines and mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.

3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small 

quantities of tangerines in TX and Temples in FL.

4 Estimates discontinued beginning with the 2009-10 crop year.

5 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

6

Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2009-2010

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2009 2010 2009 2010

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

3,567.0

86,482.0

3,404.0

350.0

3,135.0

1,241.0

6,633.0

59,133.0

43,311.0

2,554.0

13,268.0

827.0

317.0

51.5

1,116.0

1.0

175.0

77,451.0

2,030.0

9,149.2

9,007.5

141.7

1,183.2

20.5

1,537.5

863.3

415.0

1,069.8

9.0

79.2

44.5

937.1

109.6

37,097.0

3,113.0

79,630.0

5,605.0

59,755.0

21,227.0

38,528.0

1,379.0

293.0

3,103.0

252.0

5,520.0

254.0

49,868.0

34,485.0

2,428.0

12,955.0

814.0

314.0

49.8

1,081.0

0.9

165.5

76,407.0

1,953.5

7,690.5

7,552.0

138.5

1,145.3

877.7

354.1

13.7

1,463.0

837.9

407.0

6.3

39.7

69.8

1,045.0

8.7

73.7

43.0

919.6

20.5

97.7

0.4

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 

crop year.

2 Area planted for all purposes.

3 Acreage is not estimated.

4 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2009-2010

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Yield Production

2009 2010 2009 2010

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Tons

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Tons

Bu

"

"

"

Lbs

Tons

Bu

Lbs

"

"

"

Bu

Lbs

Bales

"

"

Tons

"

Lbs

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lbs

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lbs

Cwt

Lbs

73.0

165.2

19.3

2.47

3.35

1.98

67.5

33.7

7,085

27.8

69.4

14.5

44.4

44.2

44.9

45.1

1,811

23.6

991

3,412

1,700

1,462

44.0

1,554

774

763

1,353

25.8

34.4

2,325

1,328

1,733

2,045

1,440

1,270

2,383

91

413

245

289

336

428

132

201

227,323

13,151,062

108,209

147,442

71,030

76,412

93,081

9,865

219,850

6,993

382,983

3,680

2,216,171

1,522,718

109,042

584,411

1,474,130

4,178.0

7,423

49,364

3,688,350

1,530

241,970

3,361,028

3,036,460

12,401.3

12,011.0

390.3

29,519

30,151

823,290

182

25,360

17,137

5,859

874

8,000

94,677.9

6,379

431,425

2,132

21,321

14,469

393,503

2,698

19,647

4,000

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 

crop year.

2 Yield in pounds.

3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 8 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2009-2010

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2009 2010 2009 2010

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 5

1,443,530

34,998,400

1,377,560

141,640

1,268,700

502,220

2,684,310

23,930,530

17,527,530

1,033,580

5,369,430

334,680

128,290

20,840

451,630

400

70,820

31,343,650

821,520

3,702,590

3,645,250

57,340

478,830

8,300

622,210

349,370

167,950

432,940

3,640

32,050

18,010

379,230

44,350

15,012,780

1,259,800

32,225,460

2,268,290

24,182,250

8,590,350

15,591,900

558,070

118,570

1,255,750

101,980

2,233,890

102,790

20,181,080

13,955,730

982,590

5,242,760

329,420

127,070

20,150

437,470

360

66,980

30,921,150

790,560

3,112,270

3,056,220

56,050

463,490

355,200

143,320

5,540

592,060

339,090

164,710

2,550

16,080

28,250

422,900

3,520

29,830

17,400

372,150

8,300

39,540

180

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 

crop year.

2 Area planted for all purposes.

3

Total may not add due to rounding.

4 Acreage is not estimated.

5 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2009-2010

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2009 2010 2009 2010

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.93

10.37

43.28

5.53

7.50

4.45

2.42

1.89

7.94

1.74

4.35

32.48

2.99

2.97

3.02

3.03

2.03

1.48

1.11

3.82

1.91

1.64

2.96

1.74

0.87

0.86

1.52

57.78

77.01

2.61

1.49

1.94

2.29

1.61

1.42

2.67

0.10

46.27

27.47

32.43

37.71

47.96

0.15

22.54

4,949,370

334,052,360

98,165,550

133,757,130

64,437,330

69,319,800

1,351,070

223,730

9,972,230

177,630

9,728,220

3,338,440

60,314,290

41,441,590

2,967,640

15,905,060

668,650

3,790,220

188,550

22,390

1,673,010

690

109,760

91,472,190

1,377,320

2,700,070

2,615,090

84,980

26,779,190

27,352,530

373,440

8,260

1,150,310

777,320

265,760

39,640

3,630

42,950

2,890

19,569,110

96,710

967,100

656,300

17,849,000

1,220

891,170

1,810

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 

crop year.

2

Production may not add due to rounding.

3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 10 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Summary: Production, United States, 2008-2010

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Production

2008 2009 2010

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines and Mandarins

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell)

 Pecans (in-shell)

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)

 Maple Syrup

Tons

"

"

"

"

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

"

Lbs

Tons

"

"

"

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

Gals

1,548

619

10,076

68

527

9,609.3

81.6

17,400.0

7,319.3

66.8

33,500.0

1,135.3

869.9

129.0

15.5

1,630,000

32.0

194,080

436.0

1,912

1,331

950

9,198

52

443

9,953.6

68.3

15,400.0

7,067.6

42.8

31,300.0

1,105.7

936.2

157.0

18.8

1,390,000

47.0

290,500

415.0

2,327

1,160

855

7,936

41

511

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 

full 2010 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season.

2

Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Summary: Production, United States, 2008-2010

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2008 2009 2010

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines and Mandarins

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell)

 Pecans (in-shell)

 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell)

 Maple Syrup

1,404,320

561,550

9,140,790

61,690

478,090

4,358,710

74,040

7,890

6,639,920

60,600

15,200

1,029,940

789,110

117,030

14,060

739,360

29,030

88,030

395,530

9,560

1,207,460

861,830

8,344,290

47,170

401,880

4,514,880

61,980

6,990

6,411,660

38,830

14,200

1,003,090

849,320

142,430

17,060

630,490

42,640

131,770

376,480

11,630

1,052,330

775,640

7,199,420

37,190

463,570

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the 

full 2010 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season.

2

Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 12 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 13 NASS, USDA

January Weather Summary

A protracted and severe cold outbreak struck Florida’s peninsula during the first half of the month, causing 

varying degrees of damage to citrus, sugarcane, vegetables, and specialty crops. Much of the significant damage 

occurred on January 6-7 and 10-12, when temperatures dipped below 20 degrees Fahrenheit in some northwestern 

citrus areas and fell to 32 degrees Fahrenheit or below as far south as the winter vegetable production area near 

Homestead, south of Miami.

Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal across most of Florida’s peninsula, 

and were also below normal across the remainder of the Southeast. Below-normal temperatures were also noted 

in much of the western Corn Belt, where a very deep snow cover had become established during December and 

persisted through January. In contrast, above-normal January temperatures dominated the Nation’s northern tier 

and much of the West. Monthly readings averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in northern New 

England and portions of the Northwest. At some Northwestern locations, it was the warmest January on record.

Relatively dry conditions accompanied the Northwestern warmth, consistent with the maturation of a strong El 

Niño. Meanwhile, a barrage of mid- to late-month storms struck areas from California to the southern Plains, 

more than doubling the water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack and improving water-supply prospects 

throughout the Nation’s southwestern quadrant.

Across the Nation’s midsection, short-term dryness on the central Plains contrasted with wetter than normal 

conditions on the northern and southern Plains. On the northern Plains, snow helped to protect winter wheat from 

a variety of weather extremes. On the southern Plains, several episodes of wintry precipitation caused travel 

disruptions but aided pastures and winter grains.

Farther north and east, wintry weather added to already impressive snow depths in the western Corn Belt. In 

contrast, relatively dry conditions prevailed in the eastern Corn Belt, another signal consistent with a strong, 

mature El Niño. Elsewhere, frequent precipitation maintained unfavorably soggy conditions from Alabama, 

Georgia, and northern Florida into the southern Mid-Atlantic States. The Southeastern wetness hampered 

fieldwork, including final summer crop harvest efforts, and left standing water in some winter wheat fields. 

However, heavy rain largely bypassed southern Florida and the central Gulf Coast region.

January Agricultural Summary

With the exception of the Great Lakes and New England, January temperatures were below normal east of the 

Great Plains. The mercury plunged to as many as 6 degrees below normal in portions of the Southeast, with 

recordings across much of Florida’s peninsula falling to 8 degrees below normal. In contrast, the Pacific 

Northwest, northern California, and the Rocky Mountains experienced warmer than normal temperatures, with 

recordings reaching 8 degrees above average across the eastern halves of Oregon and Washington. Precipitation 

totals varied dramatically from one region to another. Strong winter storms delivered above average rain and 

snowfall to much of the Southwest, Texas, and northern Great Plains where monthly accumulations totaled as 

much as 400 percent of normal. Elsewhere, large portions of the Rocky Mountains, Corn Belt, Delta, and New 

England were abnormally dry. Isolated locations in Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming received as little as 

2 percent of their normal monthly precipitation.

Producers in several States were busy cultivating, fertilizing, and irrigating fields in preparation for spring 

planting. Cotton harvest in Texas and Arizona was complete by mid-month, while fruit, nut, and vegetable 

growers harvested their crops throughout January. An arctic cold front delivered several nights of subfreezing 

temperatures to Florida early in the month. Freeze damage reduced strawberry production, and completely ruined 

some snap bean, squash, and tomato fields. Young sugarcane acreage was burned back, while the tops of the 

older crop were frozen. As a result, producers have been rapidly harvesting their cane fields to help limit the loss 

of sucrose content.

A wave of storm systems provided favorable soil moisture to developing small grain crops in California, 

Oklahoma, and Texas. Conversely, excessively wet fields coupled with below average temperatures in Florida 

and Georgia hampered seed germination, emergence, and crop growth in winter wheat.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 14 NASS, USDA

Crop Comments

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2009 is forecast at 30.2 million tons, of which 

28.3 million tons will be utilized for sugar and 1.87 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is 

down fractionally from the previous forecast but up 9 percent from 2008. Sugarcane producers are expecting to 

harvest 877,700 acres for sugar and seed in 2009, unchanged from January but up 1 percent from last year. Yield 

for sugar and seed is estimated at 34.4 tons per acre, down 0.1 ton from the previous forecast but up 2.6 tons from 

2008.

Production in Florida is forecast at 14.1 million tons, down 1 percent from January but up 6 percent from 2008. 

Freezing temperatures mid-month negatively impacted the sugarcane crop in the Everglades region of Florida. As 

a result, yield is forecast at 36.1 tons per acre, a decrease of 0.3 ton from the previous forecast. Estimates for 

Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from January.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2009-10 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.16 million tons, down 3 percent from the 

January 1 forecast and down 13 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. Florida’s grapefruit production is 

forecast at 18.8 million boxes (799,000 tons), down 4 percent from the January 1 forecast and 13 percent below 

last season.

The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.30 million boxes (225,000 tons), down 4 percent from January and 

down 20 percent from the previous year. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 13.5 million boxes (574,000 tons), is 

down 4 percent from the January 1 forecast and 11 percent lower than last season. The decrease is due to a 

slowing of the grapefruit growth rate. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward 

from the January 1 forecast.

Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 511,000 tons, down 6 percent 

from the January 1 forecast but 15 percent above the 2008-09 crop. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 

4.00 million boxes (190,000 tons), down 15 percent from the January 1 forecast but up 4 percent from the 

previous season. Harvest of the later maturing Honey variety is well underway and fruit size measurements are 

down. Arizona and California tangerine and mandarin production forecasts are carried forward from the 

January 1 forecast.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 900,000 boxes (41,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but

down 22 percent from last season’s final production. If realized, this will be the smallest tangelo crop since 1962, 

when Florida had a damaging December freeze.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.65 million pounds for December 2009, up 6 percent 

from November but 7 percent lower than a year ago. Total crop area for December is estimated at 1,975 acres, 

unchanged from November but 18 percent below December 2008. Harvested area totaled 1,320 acres, unchanged 

from the previous month but 10 percent lower than last year. Warm, dry weather in December aided fruit 

development and ripening.

Florida Citrus: The citrus region experienced several nights of low temperatures during the first half of January. 

Weather stations reported high temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s. In an attempt to protect the fruit and limit crop 

losses, grove caretakers irrigated heavily and accelerated harvest. Temperatures returned to a 70 to 80 degree 

range by mid-January. Harvesting of early, midseason, and Navel oranges neared completion while Valencia 

harvest was just getting started.

All of the processing plants had opened and were mainly receiving early and midseason oranges and grapefruit. 

Primary grove activities were irrigating and harvesting.

California Citrus: During the first half of January picking of tangerines, navel oranges, and grapefruit continued 

in the Central Valley. The lemon harvest continued in both the desert region and Central Valley. Citrus fruit 

harvest slowed significantly in mid-January due to storms moving through the Central Valley and desert region. 

The Valencia orange crop continued to develop well.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 15 NASS, USDA

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Pruning and pre-emergent spraying occurred in grape vineyards. 

Dormant sprays to control pests were applied in prune and peach orchards. Pruning continued in nut orchards, 

while herbicide applications to berms also took place in almond and walnut orchards. During the middle of 

January most maintenance work in vineyards and orchards was suspended or slowed due to heavy rains and 

strong winds throughout central and southern California. Some fallen almond trees were reported. Honeybees 

were shipped in from other States and hives were placed in almond orchards for the upcoming pollination season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 16 NASS, USDA

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in 

Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at 

the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing 

review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of 

fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage 

surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of 

production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, 

January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel 

oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, 

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California 

and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current 

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to 

prepare the published February 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made 

each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits 

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the 

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root 

Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between 

the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. 

The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of 

the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made 

concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming 

that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 3.8 percent. However, if 

you exclude the 5 abnormal production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean 

Square Error" is 3.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production 

forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.8 percent, or 3.2 percent excluding 

abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 

6.6 percent, or 5.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have 

averaged 335,000 tons (309,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 

655,000 tons (18,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for 

oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, 

excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely 

to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2010 17 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics 

Service to contact for additional information.

Lance Honig, Chief ...................................................................................................(202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Jacqueline Moore, Head ........................................................................(202) 720-2127

Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice..............................................................(202) 720-7688

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings...............................................(202) 720-5944

Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats, Sorghum....................................................(202) 690-3234

Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed ...............................(202) 720-9526

Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye....................................................................(202) 720-8068

Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops.............................(202) 720-7621

Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds........................(202) 720-7369

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head ......................................................................(202) 720-2127

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, 

 Onions, Strawberries..............................................(202) 720-2157

Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums,

Prunes, Tobacco .......................................................(202) 720-4288

Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, 

Tree Nuts..................................................................(202) 720-4215

Steve Maliszewski - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits................(202) 720-5412

Tierra Mobley - Berries, Cranberries, 

Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes .........................................(202) 720-4285

Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans ...................................(202) 720-3250

Kim Ritchie - Hops................................................................................(360) 902-1940
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Sustainable Agriculture

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February 18 – 19, 2010

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1700 Jefferson Davis Highway

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www.usda.gov/oce/forum

Early Bird Registration $350 until January 15, 2010 * $375 after January 15

Topical Sessions Cover:

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and the traditional Food Price, Farm Income, and Commodity Outlook Sessions