Wheat Class Percentage Estimates

The following percentages are the basis for the U.S. wheat production by
class estimates each year. These estimates are based on the latest varietal
survey data available. The percentages used for the 1991 end-of-season
production by class estimates will be used during the 1992 forecast season.
jowever, if an unusual situation significantly distorts a State's typical
distribution, then updated percentages are used during the forecast season.

Wheat: Acreage Distribution, by Class and State, 1990-91

Winter Oth Spr (excl Durum)

State : Hard Red Soft Red White

1990 : 1991 1990 : 1991

Percent

AL : 100 100
AZ : 100 100
AR : 100 100
CA 2 93 93 7 7
co : 100 100 84 84 16 16
DE : 100 100
FL 100 100
GA : 100 100
1D : 17 20 83 80 43 38 57 62
IL : 2 2 98 98
IN : 100 100
IA : 70 70 30 30
KS : 98 98 2 2
KY : 6 6 94 94
LA 2 2 98 98
MD : 100 100
MI : 28 28 72 72
MN : 100 100 100 100
MS : 100 100
MO : 3 3 97 97
MT H 99 99 1 1 100 100
NE : 100 100
NV : 100 100 12 12 88 88
Nd : 100 100
NM : 100 100
NY : 1 1 2 2 97 97
NC : 100 100
ND : 100 100 100 100
OH : 100 100
OK : 100 99 1
OR : 1 1 99 99 25 30 75 70
PA 3 100 100
Sc : 100 100
sO : 100 100 100 100
TN : 100 100
TMX 2 94 94 6 6
UT : 93 93 7 7 71 71 29 29
VA : 100 100
WA : 5 5 95 95 35 13 65 87
Ww : 100 100
WI : 93 93 7 7 100 100
WY : 100 100 100 100
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-20 NASS, USDA


Tobacco by Class and Type: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-91 1/ (continued)

Production
Class and Type Pome ce enna nnn ene en enn nnn nnn eee n-ne
3 1990
---- Acres ----  --- Pounds --- - 1,000 Pounds --

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3b, Dark

Air-Cured
Type 35, One Sucker

Belt :

KY : 2,000 2,500 2,250 2,100 4,500 5,250

TN : 500 590 2,040 2,000 1,020 1,180

US : 2,500 3,090 2,208 2,081 5,520 6,430
Type 36, Green River :

Belt :

KY : 900 1,300 2,250 1,950 2,025 2,535
Type 37, VA Sun-Cured:

Belt :

VA : 80 80 1,275 1,300 102 104
Total 35-37 : 3,480 4,470 2,197 2,029 7,647 9,069

Class 4, Cigar Filler :
Type 41, PA Seedleaf :
PA : 6,400 6,700 2,050 1,950 13,120 13,065
Class 5, Cigar Binder :
Class 5a, CT Valley :

Binder
Type 51, CT Valley
Broadleaf :
CT : 570 670 1,700 1,700 969 1,139
MA : 90 110 = 2,120 1,860 191 205
US : 660 780 1,758 1,723 1,160 1,344

Class 5b, WI Binder :
Type 54, Southern WI :

WI : 4,100 4,200 2,350 2,200 9,635 9,240
Type 55, Northern WI :

WI : 2,800 3,200 1,460 1,900 4,088 6,080
Total 54-55 : 6,900 7,400 1,989 2,070 13,723 15,320
Total 51-55 : 7,560 8,180 1,969 2,037 14,883 16,664
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper:

Type 61, CT Valley
Shade-Grown :
cT : 1,250 1,080 1,630 1,535 2,038 1,658

MA : 380 370 «1,615 1,540 614 570
US : 1,630 1,450 1,627 1,537 2,652 2,228
All Cigar Types :
Total 41-61 : 15,590 16,330 1,966 1,957 30,655 31,957
All Tobacco : 732,710 764,390 2,218 2,143 1,625,147 1,637,706

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-41 NASS, USDA


Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Planted Area Harvested

1990 Ind 1991 1990 Ind 1991

1,000 Acres

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-91

Area Planted Area Harvested

1991 1/ 1991 1/

State

cA : 230 245 1,265 1,127

FL : 140 195 1,078 1,482

US 177 214 2,343 2,609

l/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-37 NASS, USDA


Apples, Commercial: Production by State and United States, 1989-91

Production

State : Total 2/ Ind

aaa ea laa n

1989 1990 1991

Million Pounds

AZ 3/ 34.0 64.0 53.0
AR 3/ : 9.0 12.0 11.0
CA : 675.0 780.0 800.0
co : 70.0 35.0 75.0
cT : 24.0 33.0 27.0
DE 3/ : 15.0 17.0 25.0
GA 3/ : 25.0 22.0 35.0
1D : 158.0 165.0 130.0
IL : 91.0 60.0 79.0
IN : 64.0 57.0 60.0
IA 3/ : 11.5 9.5 9.5
KS 3/ : 13.0 8.0 11.0
KY 3/ : 16.0 9.0 20.0
ME : 69.0 88.0 79.0
MD : 37.0 33.0 75.0
MA : 78.0 85.0 78.0
MI : 950.0 750.0 850.0
MN 3/ : 31.0 20.0 23.0
MO : 55.0 41.0 37.0
NH 3 41.0 48.0 45.0
NJ : 48.0 60.0 100.0
NM 3/ : 5.3 6.8 2.5
NY : 960.0 990.0 1,010.0
NC : 220.0 230.0 320.0
OH : 125.0 120.0 120.0
OR : 160.0 180.0 115.0
PA : 320.0 450.0 510.0
RI : 5.5 6.0 5.0
SC 3/ : 35.0 34.0 45.0
TM 3/ 11.5 8.5 13.5
UT 3/ : 56.0 24.0 45.0
VT : 45.0 43.0 48.0
VA : 325.0 210.0 420.0
WA : 5,000.0 4,800.0 4,600.0
wv : 115.0 150.0 190.0
WI : 65.0 48.0 61.0
us 9,962.8 9,696.8 10,127.5

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.

2/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (million pounds):
U.S. 1989-45.4, 1990-38.6.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-46 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Planted and Harvested,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Planted 1/

1990 2/ 1991
1,000 Acres
AL 3 300 280 170 220 190 110
AZ : 120 100 70 118 98 68
ARO: 1,300 1,500 1,100 1,200 1,400 930
CA : 731 680 483 675 619 442
co 3 2,775 2,742 2,638 2,270 2,590 2,336
DE : 80 65 70 74 60 67
FL : 80 65 50 65 55 25
GA : 800 650 500 700 590 425
ID : 1,460 1,420 1,340 1,370 1,370 1,160
IL : 1,850 2,050 1,650 1,780 1,850 1,400
IN : 940 1,050 850 880 970 720
IA : 80 80 75 70 75 50
KS : 12,400 12,400 11,800 8,900 11,800 11,000
KY : 630 700 640 450 500 400
LA : 390 440 300 350 390 190
MD : 230 200 205 215 190 195
MI : 660 770 570 640 750 560
MN : 2,765 2,960 2,190 2,699 2,865 2,155
MS : 525 600 350 450 520 250
MO : 1,970 2,150 1,650 1,850 2,000 1,500
MT : 6,340 5,745 5,130 5,235 5,185 4,379
NE : 2,550 2,450 2,350 2,050 2,250 2,100
NV : 18 16 11 15 14 8
NJ Hy 43 36 35 35 29 26
NM : 550 520 550 200 300 320
NY : 135 150 115 130 145 110
NC : 680 600 550 630 550 480
ND : 10,800 11,350 10,000 10,330 10,910 9,790
Ou : 1,260 1,400 1,150 1,230 1,350 1,080
OK : 7,300 7,500 7,400 5,700 6,300 5,000
OR : 950 1,010 900 920 968 846
PA : 220 215 180 215 210 175
Sc : 460 400 300 435 380 275
sD : 3,930 4,140 3,370 3,520 3,789 3,117
TMN 2 540 580 440 450 490 320
TX : 6,700 6,700 6,200 3,000 4,200 2,800
UT : 190 185 165 177 176 153
VA : 300 290 280 275 260 250
WA : 3,100 2,600 3,700 2,270 2,480 2,150
Ww : 16 15 13 12 12 10
WI : 212 205 149 180 192 127

WY 2 235 232 217 204 rau 194

1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall.
2/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-14 NASS, USDA


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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-26 NASS, USDA


Grain sorghum harvest was in full swing in Texas and the Delta by the
beginning of September, with crop maturity running behind normal in Colorado
and the Delta but ahead of schedule elsewhere. Lack of rainfall stressed crop
conditions in Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri, while conditions rated mostly
fair to good for the 12 major producing States. Harvest was 42% complete by
the end of September, well ahead of 28% last year and 33% average.

Entering September, rice harvest was 30% complete, 6 percentage points ahead
of last year and 3 points ahead of the average. Harvest was well along in
Louisiana and Texas, and in the early stages in Arkansas and Mississippi.
California's harvest got underway the third week in September, while Texas
growers were finishing. Nationwide, harvest had progressed to 61% complete by
the end of the month, 9 points ahead of last year but 5 points behind the
average.

Corn for Grain: Production of corn for grain is forecast at 7.48 billion

bushels, up 3 percent from last month but 6 percent below the
1990 crop. The U.S. average yield per acre is forecast at 108.8 bushels, up
2.7 bushels from last month, but 9.7 bushels below the 1990 average yield.

U.S. CORN PRODUCTION
1982 - 1991

BILLION BUSHELS

10.00 388

a 7.67 N

8.23
7.48.

6.00H —

N
4.00 N nf NI
2.00 N WN ;

0.00

LULL

ZL

Zit

82 838 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
YEAR

At the end of September, corn harvest was progressing ahead of last year and
the historic average, led by a much earlier than usual harvest in the eastern

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-8 NASS, USDA


September Weather Summary: September's weather was typically transitional, as

late-summer hot spells were interspersed with
Canadian high pressure system intrusions. The month's most notable cold snap
(September 19-21, over 100 daily record lows set) immediately followed
summer's last heat wave (September 12-17, about 130 daily record highs
notched), and cut the growing season short in parts of the western Corn and
Soybean Belt.

The West enjoyed September's finest weather, especially toward month's end.
Temperature anomalies generally exceeded +4° F from central Washington to
south-central California. Portland, OR, not only had its warmest September
ever, but also received a mere 0.02 inches of rain (3rd driest September). In
contrast, cool, wet weather plagued the southern Plains, with temperature
departures reaching -4° F from western Texas to southern Oklahoma. £lsewhere,
temperatures were slightly below normal from the Great Lakes to New England,
near normal in the Southeast, and somewhat above normal in the northern
Plains.

Rainfall patterns were highly variable, but a few trends were clear. Two to
four times the normal rainfall drenched southern Plains cotton areas.
Oklahoma City, OK, on the northeastern cotton cropland fringe, received a
September-record 11.85 inches of rain (348 percent of normal). Unusually dry
weather prevailed in the central Plains and the Southeast. Savannah, GA,
garnered only 0.35 inches of rain to set a September record for dryness.
Rainfall for the Corn Belt as a whole was below normal for the 4th consecutive
month. A few locations in the mid-Atlantic region reported a 6th drier-than-
normal month in a row, for example, Scranton, PA, and Baltimore, MD. Several
rainfall records for dryness were tied or broken in the Pacific Northwest.
Olympia and Seattle, WA, which both normally receive greater than 2 inches of
September rainfall, recorded record-tying traces of rain.

Locally heavy rain was common in the southern Plains until the 20th. The
rainfall event of the 18th and 19th seemed to be especially damaging to
cotton, because several inches of rain fell while temperatures plummetted into
the 40's. Rain was common in the upper Mississippi Valley until the

17th, with the month's most significant rainfall occurring on the 7th and 8th.
Additional heavy rain fell on the 13th and 14th. In the West, frequent
afternoon thunderstorms rumbled during the first half of September. A 24-hour
rainfall record was established in Utah on the 7th as over 8 inches of rain
deluged North Ogden. The month's final episode of significant rain affected
the East on the 24th and 25th. The last few days of September were nearly dry
nationwide.

Record heat appeared in the South on the 12th and made a quick trek toward the
north and east. Greer, SC, set seven consecutive daily record highs. The
summer ended suddenly east of the Rockies. On the 19th and 20th, temperatures
sagged below freezing from Nebraska and Iowa northward, damaging immature
soybeans in the western Corn Belt. Cool weather continued in the East until
month's end. Buffalo, NY, tied a September record with a 32° F reading on the
30th. Meanwhile, the West basked in unusual warmth. The mercury reached a
daily record of 102° F in Sacramento, CA, on the final day of the month.

Winter Wheat Plantings: Seeding of the 1992 winter wheat crop was getting
underway at the beginning of September, and rains
during the first half of the month provided necessary soil moisture. Planting

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-6 NASS, USDA


U.S. ALL COTTON PRODUCTION
1982 - 1991

MILLION BALES

20.00
18.00.
16.004
14,00.
12.00.
10.00.

oli \ \
N

4.00 OTR NN IN
al \\ VIVVIN

82 88 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
YEAR

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
expect to produce 5.65 million bales, up 1 percent from September 1 and up

15 percent above last year. Scattered showers in some of the States in this
region slowed harvest during September, and at month's end only Missouri was
ahead of the normal harvest pace. Insects affected Jate planted cotton fields
in Arkansas, and budworm egg lay was extensive in green cotton fields in
central Louisiana. At the end of September, the majority of the crop in
Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi was rated in good condition, but in
Missouri and Tennessee the crop was mainly in fair condition.

Production in the Western States (Arizona, California, and New Mexico) is
expected to total 3.32 million bales, up 1 percent from last month but

9 percent below last year. Yields in this region are expected to average
1,177 pounds per acre, 14 pounds above last year's average. Cotton
defoliation continued during the month in California and most fields were
receiving final irrigation. Harvest progressed in California's desert and was
beginning in the San Joaquin Valley.

The forecast in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and
South Carolina) puts production at 2.02 million bales, 1 percent below last
month but 70 percent above last year's production. Hot, dry weather during
September eliminated much of the concern of boll rot in this region. Weather
conditions in Alabama and North Carolina caused crop prospects to decline
slightly during the month, but aided South Carolina's cotton development.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-12 NASS, USDA


In the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota pre-campaign harvest
began the second week in September. Wet conditions slowed or stopped harvest
in fields but overall harvest progress was average. As of September 29,
lifting of North Dakota beets was 12 percent complete, the same as the 5-year
average for the date. The forecasted yield is 2.6 tons per acre above last
year for North Dakota and 1.7 tons for Minnesota.

Harvest was underway in Idaho with about 12 percent of the crop out of the
ground. Yield per acre is expected to be 2.0 tons lower than a year ago.

In California, harvest remains active under open weather. Digging in the
Sacramento Valley will continue through the month, if weather permits. Yield
losses due to virus yellows remains a significant factor in the Sacramento
Valley production.

Michigan sugarbeet tonnage is down from earlier expectations but with good
sugar content. Harvest is underway with about 10 percent harvested.

The Wyoming harvest began in mid-September and progressed at a near normal
pace. On September 29, 15 percent had been lifted.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at

31.7 million tons, fractionally above the September 1 forecast and
13 percent above last year's output. Nationally, harvested acreage at
895,200 acres is up 13 percent from a year ago, while the yield per acre is
expected to average 35.4 tons per acre the same as in 1990. Larger crops than
a year earlier are expected in Louisiana and Texas; however, Florida and
Hawaii expect less output.

In Florida, the season has been favorable for the sugarcane crop. There has
been rain, but no hurricanes. Growers are currently planting sugarcane.
Harvest for sugar is expected to start the last week of October with all
plants opening in early November.

In Hawaii, September was mostly hot, humid, and dry. Light winds contributed
to record high temperatures in the low to mid 90's. Without the usual pattern
of trade winds, a build-up of volcanic smoke and fumes prompted a ban on
sugarcane field burning in some areas during September. Fields are
traditionally burned to get rid of dead leaves before harvest. Increased
trash in cane delivered to mills lowers the sugar recovery rate.

The condition of Louisiana sugarcane improved during September. Yield outlook
is up 1.0 ton per acre from September 1. Harvest began in most parishes last
week. Growers are hoping to wrap up planting in the next few weeks and turn
their attention to harvest for sugar.

The Texas crop looks good. Rains have helped tonnage and have not adversely
affected sugar quality.

Grapes: The U.S. grape crop is forecast at 5.39 million tons, up 2 percent

from last month but 5 percent less than last year's production. Only
California, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington had the
opportunity to change their September 1 forecast. The August 1 forecast was
carried forward for the remaining States.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-16 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
A) p (SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS, AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

October 5, 1991

MOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY  seseden protminary reper

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil] moisture from a 5-foot
profile, or for coo] season crops growing when temperatures are averaging
below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long
term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought
severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-4 NASS, USDA



Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
and United States, 1989-91

Yie

0

Bushels -- - 1,000 Bushels -
0 80.0 14,580 13,920 17,600
-0 = 165.0 1,885 1,120 825
-0 105.0 7,076 6,935 8,400
-O0 165.0 29,600 25,600 21,450
-0 155.0 134,850 128,650 131,750
0 90.0 13,300 19,780 15,120
0 70.0 5,920 5,325 5,250
20 100.0 52/250 37,400 55,000
0 = 125.0 6,250 3,900 5,625
-O 110.0 1,322,250 1,320,800 1,221,000
-0 94.0 691,600 703,050 531,100
-O 117.0 1,445,500 1,562,400 1,380,600
-O 125.0 ,000 188,500 200,000
0 90.0 136,880 120,000 112,500
0 95.0 13,490 21,576 20,900
.0 80.0 44,000 53,100 36,800
-0 110.0 222,610 238,050 253,000
-O 125.0 700,000 762,600 737,500
0 75.0 9,800 11,200 11,250
0 96.0 219,840 205,800 196,800
0 90.0 320 855 1,260
-0 127.0 847,000 934,400 1,003,300
-0 = 112.0 7,242 8,850 8,736
+0 155.0 9,600 7,975 9,300
0 90.0 53,010 60,760 62,100
0 90.0 88,350 72,760 85,500
70 85.0 347875 36,800 51,000
.0 90.0 342,200 417,450 319,500
70 115.0 97360 107032 103925
-0 150.0 3,520 2,700 3,300
+0 70.0 98,880 109,610 66,500
+0 88.0 30,940 14,400 21,560
0 73.0 190,800 234,000 237,250
0 91.0 56,710 43,860 46,410
-0 110.0 148,400 130,500 176,000
10 140.0 27640 23660 27800
.0 80.0 40,150 36,500 25,600
:0 170.0 155750 14;000 147960
[070.0 4:370 5; 250 33850
0 0

+0 0

, ’ ’

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-24 NASS, USDA


Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1989-91 1/

State t-------- 99 -n nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nn nnn nn nnn
1990 Ind 199 1990

- : -- 1,000 Acres -- 1,000 tons ------
CA : 167.0 150.0 26.1 25.0 4,614 4,359 3,750
co : 40.0 40.3 23.6 23.0 912 944 927
ID : 186.0 195.0 26.0 24.0 4,038 4,836 4,680
MI : = 157.0 167.0 20.8 16.5 2,565 3,266 2,756
MN : 364.0 362.0 14.8 16.5 5,456 5,387 5,973
MT : 55.1 56.3 22.5 21.8 1,033 1,240 1,227
NE : 71.0 78.2 21.0 20.5 1,169 1,491 1,603
ND > 193.2 190.0 14.4 17.0 2,828 2,782 3,230
OH : 19.2 20.2 18.5 17.0 199 355 343
OR : 16.7 19.0 29.2 28.0 39) 488 532
TX H 41.0 40.5 24.8 24.0 743 1,017 972
WY : 63.8 67.1 20.5 20.3 1,139 1,308 1,362
Oth 2s: 2.2 2.2 29.5 31.4 44 65 69
US : 1,376.2 1,387.8 20.0 19.8 25,131 27,538 27,424

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring
planted beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91 1/

Area Harvested Yield 1/ Production 1/

Ind 1991

- 1,000 Acres - ~---- Tons ----- -- 1,000 Tons
FL : 434.0 440.0 35.5 34.3 13,188 15,407 15,092
HI : 79.0 75.2 85.1 83.5 7,277 6,723 6,279
LA : 245.0 345.0 20.6 27.0 8,083 5,056 9,315
TX > 36.2 35.0 26.2 29.5 878 950 1,033
: 2
1/ Net tons.
Crop Production Agricuitural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-42 NASS, USDA



Report Features

Revised acreage, yield, and production for soybeans for 1990 and winter
potatoes for 1991. Acreage, yield, and production of wheat, oats, barley, and
rye for 1991, including revised data for 1990 and production of wheat by

classes (U.S).

The next "Crop Production” report will be released on November 12, 1991 at

3:00 p.m. ET.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 447-2127
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 447-3843
Kirby Cavett, Minor Oilseeds (202) 447-3180
Marty Owens, Rice, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 447-2157
Vaughn Siegenthaler, Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 447-8068
Charles Van Lahr, Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition (202) 447-7369
Herb Vanderberry, Soybeans (202) 447-9526
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Steve Ropel, Head (202) 447-3843
Jim Brewster, Fruits, Fresh Vegetables (202) 447-7688
Arvin Budge, Potatoes, Dry Beans, Processing Vegetables (202) 447-4285
Kevin Hintzman, Fruits, Citrus, Nuts (202) 447-5412
Roger Latham, Cotton, Peanuts (202) 447-5944
Darwin Ransom, Sugar, Tobacco, Hay (202) 447-7621
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 B-25

NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production
Crop foeececneen nn prt rrr nr tn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nna
and : : Indicated 1991
Unit :Indicated:
1990 1992
Corn for Grain Bu :—«:118.5 108.8 7,933,068 7,295,071 7,479,421
Sorghum for Grain " H 62.9 58.2 571,483 547,665 566,715
Rice Cwt 1/: 5,507 5,571 154,919 157,479 157,718
Soybeans for :

Beans 2/ Bu: 34.1 «=—33.0-—-1,925,947 1,816,825 1,933,570
Peanuts for Nuts Lb : 1,991 2,513 3,602,770 5,023,200 4,935,250
Sunflower 2/ " : 1,229 1,306 2,274,405 3,302,950
All Cotton Bale 1/: 634 630 15,499.4 17,868.4 17,644.9

Upland "d/: 632 626 15, 140.9 17,445.8  17,200.8

Amer-Pima “Of: 758 875 358.5 422.6 444.1
Cottonseed Ton : 5,966.5 6,902.7 6,813.5
All_Hay " : 2.39 2.51 146,985 3/156,855 158,380

Alfalfa " : 3.29 3.38 83,555 3/86, 237 87,299

All Other " : 1.75 1.91 63,430 3/70,618 71,081
Dry Edible Beans Cwt 1/: 1,554 1,734 32,429 31,913 32,425
Dry Edible Peas "1/2/: 1,492 1,987 2,372 3,715
Austrian Winter 3

Peas "1/2/: 1,104 1,217 127 140
Lentils "1/2/: 841 1,381 875 1,671
Tobacco Lb : 2,218 2,143 1,625,147 1,631,347 1,637,706
Sugarbeets Ton : 20.0 19.8 27,538 27,557 27,424
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed " : 35.4 35.4 28,136 31,645 31,719
Pasture and :

Range Feed 4/ Pct : 70 77
Apples, comm'] Lb : 9,696,800 3/10,056,000 10,127,500
Grapes Ton : 5,659.9 5,266.8 5,386.8
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl Ca) " : 47.8 26.8 26.0
Pecans Lb : 205,000 292,000 271,000
Hazelnuts Ton : 21.7 5/26.0 26.0

1990-91 1991-92
Citrus Fruits 6/ :
Oranges Ton ;: 7,887 8,191
Lemons " : 722 688

1/ Yield in pounds.

2/ 1990 revised.

3/ Aug 1, 1991.

4/ Pasture and range feed condition as of first of month. The 1980-89
average is 73 percent.

5/ Mid-August forecast published in "Hazelnut Production" released
August 27, 1991.

6/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-5 NASS, USDA






Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91 1/

Area Harvested Production

State alltel atattatetatee bated
1990 :Ind 199 1990
- 1,000 Acres - --- Pounds --- 9 -----~ 1,000 Cwt ------
Large Lima
C, 23.0 29.0 1,990 2,050 618 458 595
Baby Lima
CA 25.0 34.0 2,200 2,300 728 550 782
Other
afh 120.0 74.0 1,750 1,850 2,011 2,100 1,369
CA 168.0 137.0 1,850 2,004 3,357 3,108 2,746
co 225.0 195.0 1,900 1,950 3,108 4,275 3,803
ID 178.0 143.0 2,000 2,050 3,444 3,560 2,932
KS 2/ 38.0 32.0 1,750 1,700 326 665 544
MI 330.0 340.0 1,650 1,750 3,975 5,445 5,950
MN 136.0 120.0 1,300 1,550 910 1,768 1,860
MT 2/ 13.0 12.3 1,690 1,700 130 220 209
NE 254.0 210.0 1,970 1,900 3,494 5,004 3,990
NM 2/ 14.0 16.0 1,650 2,000 280 231 320
NY 39.5 35.0 1,700 1,300 450 672 455
ND 550.0 500.0 910 1,450 2,460 5,005 7,250
OR 2/ 9.0 7.0 2,000 2,000 3/ 180 140
TX 2/ 21.0 15.0 1,050 1,400 3 221 210
UT 2/ 4.0 §.5 330 400 1 13 22
WA 47.0 50.0 1,940 2,000 929 912 1,000
WI 2/ 10.9 11.4 1,700 1,700 3/ 185 194
WY 49.0 41.0 1,970 1,950 851 965 800
US 2,086.4 1,870.2 1,554 1,734 23,729 32,429 32,425

1/ &xcludes beans grown for garden seed.
2/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
3/ Estimates began in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-35 NASS, USDA


Rye: Area Planted and Harvested,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Planted 1/ Area Harvested

State :------------------ 2-2-9 9 --- n nn--nnnnnnnnnnrnrnsnnnnnnnnn rena
: 1990 2/ : 1991 : 1989 : 1990 2/ : 1991
1,000 Acres
co : 25 15 15 4 3 3
DE 3/ : 7 2
GA : 320 300 330 70 60 65
IL : 50 45 60 8 5 6
IN : 45 30 25 6 4 4
IA 3/ : 25 5
KS : 45 35 70 5 5 5
KY 3/:: 50 2
MD : 40 45 35 8 7 7
MI : 120 135 125 25 20 18
MN : 60 55 36 32 28 24
MO 3/ : 25 3
NE : 160 110 130 30 30 50
NJ : 47 50 42 7 6 6
NY : 80 60 50 15 10 8
NC : 150 100 110 25 15 20
ND : 45 35 40 38 26 32
OH : 40 40 40 5 5 5
OK 2 100 95 110 28 20 35
OR 3/ : 20 3
PA : 70 60 45 18 16 ll
sc 80 60 68 28 27 30
SD 100 60 50 90 55 32
Tx 90 100 100 7 10 12
VA 140 110 100 8 8 8
WI 70 85 90 12 15 15
US 2,014 1,625 1,671 484 375 396

1/ Area planted in preceding fall.
2/ Revised.
3/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-21 NASS, USDA


Soybeans for Beans:
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,

Area Harvested

Yield

Production

-- 1,000 Acres --

370
3,100
250
40
620
9,100
4,430
8,700
1,950
1,130
1,390
500
1,390
5,350
1,800
4,450
2,450
123
1,300
590
3,880
230
305
640
2,250
1,050
180
515
550

-- Bushels --
17.0 23.
27.0 27.
34.0 30.
19.0 26.
14.0 26.
39.0 37.
41.0 38.
41.5 39.
24.0 19.
32.0 28.
24.0 25.
36.0 29.
38.0 35.
39.0 38.
21.0 23.
30.0 29.
34.5 33.
37.0 35.
24.0 26.
26.0 30.
39.0 36.
21.0 21.
41.0 33.
18.5 22.
28.0 26.
27.0 26.
25.0 28.
32.0 28.
41.0 39.
34.1 33

11,970
75,200
7,250
2,640
28,600
354,000
166,075
322,920
49,950
36,855
38,500
16,500
38,880
185,000
40,000
121,800
81,920
3,616
41,850
13,860
125,370
6,840
10,370
20, 160
48,880
29,760
12,450
17,280
15,170

1,923, 666

7,480
90,450

6,766

1,425

9,800
354,900
171,380
327,850
46,800
39,040
42,000
17,820
43,320
179, 400
39,900
124,500
81,420

3,996
32,400
12,870
135,720

4,620
11,275
13,875
53,760
33,750

5,000
16,800
17,630

1,925,947

8,510
83,700

7,500

1,040
16,120
336,700
168,340
339, 300
37,050
31,640
34,750
14,500
48,650
203,300
41,400
129,050
80,850

4,305
33,800
17,700
139,680

4,830
10,065
14,080
58,500
27,300

5,040
14,420
21,450

1,933,570

AL : 440
AR: ~— (3,350
DE : 199
FL 2/: 75
GA : 700
IL : 9,100
IN > 4,180
IA: ~—-7,900
KS : 1,950
KY : 1,220
LA : 1,750
MD : 495
MI >: 1,140
MN : 4,600
MS =: 1,900
MO : 4,150
NE : 2,360
NO 2/3 108
NC : 1,350
ND : 495
OH : 3,480
OK 2/ : 220
PA 2/: 275
sc : 750
sD: 1,920
TN : 1,250
TX : 200
VA : 525
WI : 430
US : 56,512
l/_ Revised.

2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production
October 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Index Numbers of Crop Production
United States, 1982-91 (1977=100)

Production
: : : Hay
: All l/ : Feed : and

Food : Sugar : Cotton : Tobacco : Oi7
: Grains : Forage : 3

Grains : Crops :

1982: n7 122 109 138 96 85 104 121

1983: 87 67 100 116 93 54 75 91
1984 =: 110 115 107 129 95 90 90 106
1985 : 116 133 106 121 95 93 79 7
1986 : 107 123 107 106 106 68 61 107
1987 : 106 106 101 107 111 103 62 108
1988: 91 73 88 98 105 107 72 89
1989: = (106 108 100 107 105 85 71 + «107
1990 8: 6113 112 101 136 108 108 85 107
1991 0: dll 106 108 105 113 123 86 111

1/ Includes some miscellaneous crop production not included in separate
groups of crops shown.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-23 NASS, USDA


Lentils: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production,

. by State and United States, 1989-91
: Area Planted Area Harvested

State Stat leat eat matted tare an sane
: 1990 Ind 1991 1990 Ind 1991

1,000 Acres

ID : 43.0 47.0 40.0 46.0

WA : 65.0 76.0 64.0 75.0

US : 108.0 123.0 104.0 121.0

Production

1990

Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91 1/

State

1D : . . 55.0 79.0

WA : 108.0 110-0 104.0 108.0

us :
1990 Ind 1991 1989 1990 Ind 1991
---- Pounds ----~

1D : 1,400 1,900

WA 2 13540 2050 23485 1,602 23214

us : 1,492 1,987 3,883 2,372 3,715

1/ Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-36 NASS, USDA


Other Spring Wheat: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Planted Area Harvested

1,000 Acres
co : 75 42 38 70 40 36
ID : 580 460 470 560 450 460
MN : 2,600 2,800 2,100 2,550 2,750 2,070
MT : 3,500 2,800 2,600 3,400 2,450 2,400
NV : 11 9 5 9 8 4
ND: 7,600 8,000 7,000 7,250 7,700 6,850
OR : 110 60 50 105 58 46
SD : 2,200 2,200 1,800 2,050 2,100 1,750
UT : 25 30 25 22 26 23
WA : 1,000 300 1,500 970 280 1,450
WI : 12 10 9 10 7 7

WY 3 20 12 7 11 6 4

US 17,007 15,875 15,100
Production

co 70.0 70.0 75.0 4,900 2,800 2,700
ID 62.0 68.0 71.0 34,720 30,600 32,660
MN 38.0 49.0 31.0 96,900 134,750 64,170
MT 25.0 22.0 34.0 85,000 53,900 81,600
NV 80.0 70.0 75.0 720 560 300
ND 24.0 36.0 31.0 174,000 277,200 212,350
OR 47.0 52.0 50.0 4,935 3,016 2,300
SD 22.0 32.0 28.0 45,100 67,200 49,000
UT 45.0 45.0 49.0 990 1,170 1,127
WA 43.0 41.0 40.0 41,710 11,480 58,000
WI 31.0 40.0 34.0 310 280 238
WY 42.0 28.0 30.0 462 168 120
US 28.8 36.7 33.4 489,747 583,124 504,565
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-18 NASS, USDA


Lentils: Production of lentils is estimated at 1.67 million cwt, nearly
double last year's heat reduced crop. Harvested acreage, at

121,000 acres, was up 16 percent from last year, while the average yield of

1,381 pounds per acre was up 540 pounds. Growing conditions in both Idaho and

Washington were ideal.

Dry Edible Peas: Production of dry peas this year is estimated at

3.72 million cwt, up 57 percent from a year ago but
4 percent short of 1989 production. Area for harvest came in at
187,000 acres, 18 percent above last year. Average yield of 1,987 pounds per
acre is up 495 pounds. Both Idaho and Washington had considerably improved
crops over last year.

Austrian Winter Peas: The 1991 Austrian winter pea crop of 140,000 cwt is

10 percent larger than last year but 16 percent below
the 1989 output. Area harvested was the same as last year, while the average
yield increased 113 pound to 1,217 pounds per acre.

Winter Potatoes, Revised: The final production of 1991 winter potatoes was
estimated at 2.61 million cwt in 1991, up

11 percent from last year. Final acreage harvested was 12,200 acres, down

8 percent. The average yield of 214 cwt per acre increased 37 cwt over a year

earlier.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on
October 1, for the 48 contiguous States,

was 77 percent of normal, up 7 points from October 1, 1990, and 4 points above

the 1980-89 average for the date. Conditions were better than last year in

23 States and below last year in 25 States.

Pennsylvania was the only State in the severe drought range. Ten States were
in the very poor range. Conditions in the Corn Belt ranged from very poor in
Indiana and Nebraska to good to excellent in Minnesota and South Dakota.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 1.64 billion pounds for
1991, 1 percent above last year's level and fractionally above the

September 1 estimate. Since September 1, outlook improved in five of the

16 producing States, deteriorated in five States, and remained unchanged in

six States. The higher production from a year ago is the result of a

4 percent gain in area for harvest. Average yield is down to an expected

average of 2,143 pounds per acre, compared with 2,218 last year.

Flue-cured production is expected to reach 901 million pounds, off 4 percent
from a year ago and fractionally above last month's forecast. Yield per acre,
at 2,215 pounds, is down 38 pounds from last year's average yield. Acres for
harvest are 2 percent below 1990.

In North Carolina, which produces about two-thirds of the flue-cured crop,
harvest is complete in all but the late planted fields. Output is expected to
be off 2 percent from a year earlier.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-14 NASS, USDA


Oats: Area Planted and Harvested,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Planted 1/ Area Harvested

State $------~—— nnn nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nn naan enna nanan naan
1989 1990 2/ 1991 1989 1990 2/ 199]
1,000 Acres
AL : 45 45 55 25 25 25
AR : 65 55 50 60 45 30
CA : 400 380 380 45 45 35
co : 95 90 88 55 45 30
GA 3 90 65 95 70 40 60
ID : 90 60 80 60 30 45
IL : 700 600 450 200 170 120
IN : 200 140 100 95 70 45
TA : 1,550 1,300 800 750 600 425
KS : 280 160 160 200 120 110
KY 3/: 24 8
ME : 40 36 32 37 31 23
MD 28 22 16 24 17 12
MI 330 250 150 300 225 120
MN 1,250 1,100 750 850 730 570
MO 110 60 65 60 42 32
MT : 250 160 200 145 70 110
NE : 500 450 340 240 280 220
NJ 3/: 8 6
NY : 180 160 130 155 135 100
NC : 100 80 85 55 40 40
ND : 1,150 1,000 950 650 600 650
OH : 300 270 200 250 230 170
OK : 130 100 80 60 60 34
OR : 105 70 80 70 45 45
PA : 280 270 250 255 240 210
Sc : 70 60 68 40 32 40
SD : 1,450 1,250 950 1,100 950 700
TX : 1,100 1,100 1,100 200 225 180
UT : 36 40 50 17 12 8
VA 3/ : 27 9
WA : 85 80 85 45 40 40
WV 10 10 10 6 6 5
WI 940 900 750 710 710 530
WY 67 60 55 30 35 32
US 12,085 10,423 8,654 6,882 5,945 4,796
1/ Includes area planted preceding fall.
2/ Revised.
3/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-10 NASS, USDA


“Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
. by State and United States, 1989-91

Yield Production
1990 :Ind 1991 1990

--- Tons --- - 1,000 Tons --------

AZ 165 160 7.90 7.90 1,140 1,304 1,264
AR 2/3 - 25 30 3.00 3.00 105 75 90
CAs 1,060 1,050 6.60 6.50 6,834 6,996 6,825
co: 740 780 3.50 3.80 2,400 2,590 2,964
CTs: 19 18 2.70 =. 2.50 46 51 45
DE }/ : 8 6 4.10 3.00 37 33 18
ID: : 960 1,030 3.90 4.00 3,720 3,744 4,120
Woe: 660 620 4.20 3.40 2,886 2,772 2,108
IN: 400. 350 3.90 3.20 1,440 1,560 1,120
ITA» 1,700 1,700 3.75 3.50 5,700 6,375 5,950
KS: 800 800 3.80 3.20 3,060 3,040 2,560
KY: 320 350 3.40 3.50 1,406 1,088 1,225
LA: 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 14 2/ 2/
ME / : 22 192.40 2.10 40 53 40
MO ]/: 80 75 3.85 3.10 319 308 233
MA/: 29 32. 2.80 = 2.50 82 81 80
MEO: 1,250 1,200 3.90 3.70 4,680 4,875 4,440
MN- 3. 1,600 1,800 3.20 3.80 4,420 5,120 6,840
MO: 480 500 3.00 3.10 1,484 1,440 1,550
MT. : 1,350 1,400 2.50 2.60 2,970 3,375 3,640
NE =: 1,450 1,450 3.30 3.30 3,900 4,785 4,785
Wo: 240 235 «4.10 += 4.00 1,078 984 940
NH 1/: 115 14 2.45 = 2.30 41 37 32
NOU/: 26 24 «3.00 = 2.90 95 78 70
: 250 250 5.00 5.00 1,224 1,250 1,250
NY: 860 760 2.55 2.50 2,058 2,193 1,900
NC L/: 30 40 2.90 3.00 105 87 120
NO: «1,400 1,500 1.10 1.80 1,500 1,540 2,700
OH: 700 600 4.00 3.00 2,393 2,800 1,800
OK 430 400 3.20 3.50 1,800 1,376 1,400
OR: 420 400 4.30 4.20 1,720 1,806 1,680
PA 810 780 3.00 2.60 2,378 2,430 2,028
RI as: 2 2 2.80 2.30 5 6 5
sD’ : 2,100 2,350 1.80 2.30 2,400 3,780 5,405
Wl: 70 80 3.60 3.60 279 252 288
Ho: 100 100 «4.00 = 4.50 462 400 450
UT: 485 490 3.80 4.00 1,739 1,843 1,960
WOU: 105 110 2.40 2.10 247 252 231
VA L/: 140 130 4.00 = 3.90 570 560 507
WA: 470 500 4.80 4.50 2,064 2,256 2,250
Ways: 60 50 3.20 2.50 203 192 125
WI : 3,000 3,050 2.80 3.50 7,130 8,400 10,675
Wyo: 570 610 2.40 2.60 1,196 1,368 1,586
‘US =: 25,401 25,845 3.29 3.38 77,370 83,555 87,299

wdmmtee nen r nme cee cee enn nn eee nee $$ 3 ee ne ee

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Included in other hay.

"Crop Product ion Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-33 NASS, USDA



Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.28 million pounds

for September, 32 percent higher than August but 11 percent tower
than September 1990. Year-to-date fresh sales trail the same 9-month period
of 1990 by 24 percent. September weather conditions were variable with a mix
of sunshine and rain over major papaya production areas.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,840 acres, 4 percent higher than
both August and September 1990. Harvested area, totaling 2,120 acres, was
2 percent higher than August but 5 percent lower than a year ago.

California Fruit and Nuts: Harvest of nut crops, grapes, and late maturing

stonefruit was active during September. The
almond, pistachio, and walnut harvests were in full swing. Picking of apples,
figs, nectarines, peaches, pears, and plums continued. Granny Smith, Golden
Delicious, and Gala were the primary apple varieties packed. Avocados were
maturing wel]. Naval oranges continued to mature well but yields in last
year's freeze damaged areas will be reduced. Some orange growers sprayed for
red scale. Picking of Desert lemons and "Other Areas" grapefruit was active
by month's end. Early varieties of dates and pomegranates were harvested and
packed. Grapes for raisins, juice, wine, and table production continued to be
picked throughout the month of September. Weather for raisin drying has been
excellent. The olive crop appeared to be sizing normally although production
is expected to be light. Some pistachio growers treated groves for Navel
orange worm. The prune harvest was nearly complete by month's end.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-21 NASS, USDA


For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of

3 that the current production forecast of 7.48 billion bushels will not be
above or below the final estimate by more than 3.8 percent or approximately
284 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level)
that the difference will not exceed 6.5 percent or approximately 486 million
bushels.

Also, shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of
the differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using
corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 120 million bushels, ranging
from 6 million to 376 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. for most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

10-Year Record of
feeeenn--------- += + =e : Differences Between Forecast
and Final Estimate

Quantity jlo. of Years

:Percent: Quant:: : : :Below:Above
2 t: Avg:Smal]:Large:Final:Final

Unit :Percent:

Feed Grains 1/ Mt:

3.1 §.4 12 4 Q 130 6 4
Corn for Grain Bu: 3.8 6.5 486 120 6 376 «6 4
Sorghum for Grain Bu: 4.4 7.5 43 24 1 59 6 4
Rice Cwt: 2.5 4.4 7 3 1 4 5 5
Soybeans for : He
Beans Bu: 3.9 6.8 131 :: 64 2 119 3 7
Cotton Bales 2/: 5.0 8.7 1,535 503 170 1,424 7 3
Dry Edible +
Beans Cwt : 4.0 6.9 2 6 0 1.8 7 3
1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats, and barley.
2/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 B-23 NASS, USDA


Index

Page
Table Narrative

Barley - Annual .. A-12 B- 1
Oats - Annual .. .  A-10 B- 1
Rye ~ Annual ........ »  A-2] B- 3
US Summary - Annual » A-2 B- 3
Wheat, Al] - Annual ........ A-14 B- 2
Wheat, By Classes - Annual . » A-19

Wheat, Durum - Annual ........ » A-19 B- 3
Wheat, Other Spring - Annual . . A-18 B- 3
Wheat, Winter - Annual ....... » A-16 B- 6
Apples .......-c cece eee . A-46 B-19
Beans, Dry Edible . ~  A-35 B-13
Citrus Fruit .... A-44 B-17
Corn for Grain . A-24 B- 8
Cotton ....... A-31 B-11
Cottonseed ....... A-30 B-13
Crop Moisture Maps B- 4
Grapes ............ » A-43 B-16
Hay, Al] 2... cece cece cece cece eee eee en eee - A-32 B-13
Hay, Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay -  A-33 B-13
Hay, Other ....... cece eee cece eee enone ~  A-34 B-13
Hazelnuts .... ~ A-48 B-20
Index Numbers -  A-23

Lentils ...... .  A-36 B-14
PapayaS .....ceececesecccreccccee ~ A-48 B-21
Pasture and Range Feed Condition . A-38 B-14
Peanuts for Nuts ........-.-ecee0e »  A-30 B11
Peas, Austrian Winter . .  A-37 B~14
Peas, Dry Edible ...... . A-36 B-14
Pecans .......0eee »  A-47 B-20
Potatoes ......... -  A-37 B-14
Prunes and Plums ...... »  A-43 B-17
Reliability Statement . . B-23 B-22
RICE Lecce eee cece cece ne -  A-26 B- 9
Sorghum for Grain ... ~  A25 B- 9
Soybeans for Beans .. A-27 B- 9
Sugarbeets .........e cee e ee eee A-42 8-15
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed . ~  A-42 B-16
Sunflower .......cee cece eee e ee ~  A-29 B-11
Tobacco by Class and Type ~ A-40 B-14
Tobacco by States ........ » A-39 B-14
US Summary ...... cece ee cece eee cece cence eens A- 4

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 B-24 NASS, USDA


Peanuts for Nuts:

1990

Area Harvested

0

7)

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,

by State and United States, 1989-91

: Ind 1991:

~
a
=
CONZODR00

1,963.5

1990

~-- Pounds ---- 9 ----
1,510 2,500 5
2,480 2,700 2
1,750 2,600 1,8
2,500 2,500

2,900 2,900 3
2,220 2,280 2
2,230 2,700

1,850 1,950 4
3,195 3,000 2
1,991 2,513 3,9

Yield

Production 1/

37,750 386,560
14,890 233,120
49,500 1,347,500
43,680 50,000
70,120 475,600
10,700 235,320
32,500 30,105
84,700 534,650
46,155 309,915

89,995 3,602,770

Ind 1991

720,000
248,400
2,249,000
62,500
475,600
250,800
36,450
604,500
288,000

4,935,250

comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

l/ Estimates

Cottonseed:

Production, United States, 1989-91

Ind 199

1

Crop Production

October 1991

Agricultural Statis

tics Board
NASS, USDA



Crop Summary:

Crop

Corn

Sorghum

Rice

Soybeans 2/

Peanuts

Sunflower 2/

All Cotton
Upland
Amer-Pima

Al] Hay
Alfalfa
All Other

Dry Edible Beans

Dry Edible Peas 2/

Austrian Winter Peas 2/

Lentils 2/
Tobacco
Sugarbeets
Sugarcane for

Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

: Indicated

1990 1991 1990 1991

Hectares

: 30,016,260 30,719,610 27,094,800 27,818,390
4,263,410 4,470,210 3,674,180 3,942,890
1,168,340 1,161,460 1,138,390 1,145,680
: 23,389,060 24,190,340 22,869,840 23,728,190
744,630 805,330 732,290 794,610
770,930 1,050,170 749,080 1,023,870
4,997,150 5,706,610 4,747,670 5,438,550
4,903,550 5,606,980 4,655,760 5,340,010
93,600 99,630 91,910 98,540
24,911,500 25,549,700
10,279,530 10,459,210
14,631,970 15,090,490
881,660 782,270 844,350 756,850
67,180 76,890 64,350 75,680
5,460 5,260 4,650 4,650
43,710 49,780 42,090 48,970
296,520 309,350
566,320 568,870 556,930 561,630
321,400 362,280

Sugar and Seed

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, i.e., grain, beans, nuts, etc.

2/ 1990 revised.

Crop Summary:

Flaxseed
Potatoes
Winter 2/
Spring
Summer
Fall
Total 2/
Sweetpotatoes
Hops

Crop Production
October 1991

Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

Area Harvested

Indicated
1991 1/ 1990 1991 1/

Hectares
105,220 123,430 102,390 118,170
5,460 5,340 5,340 4,940
38,930 36,060 38,490 35,370
41,890 41,840 38,970 39,700
480,160 483,320 471,870 476,640
566,440 566,560 “854,670 556,650
38,000 32,620 36,220 31,480
14,370 16,030

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/

1991 revised.

Agricultural Statistics Board
A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1990-91
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

3 : Indicated
1991 1/ =: . 1990 : 1991 1/

1,000 Acres
Flaxseed 3 260 305 253 292
Potatoes :
Winter 2/ : 13.5 13.2 13.2 12.2
Spring : 96.2 89.1 : 95.1 87.4
Summer : 103.5 103.4 96.3 98.1
Fall : 1,186.5 1,194.3 1,166.0 1,177.8
Total 2/ : 1,399.7 1,400.0 1,370.6 1,375.5
Sweetpotatoes : 93.9 80.6 89.5 77.8
Hops 35.5 39.6

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1991 revised.

Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Domestic Units)

Crop Yield per Acre Production
and Lleida tata alata aaa ama ala aataiatate
Unit : 1990 =: Ind 1991 1/ : 1990 : Ind 1991 1/

Potatoes 3

Winter 2/ Cwt : 177 214 2,343 2,609

Spring "oo: 254 233 24,163 20,360

Summer "oy 240 236 23,097 23,124

Fall " : 302 352,507

Total “oy 293 402,110
Hops Lb: 1,603 1,615 §6,854.8 63,948.0
Peaches " : 2,205,200 2,545,000
Sweet Cherries Ton : 156.7 119.5
Tart Cherries lb: 208,800 160,600
Pears Ton : 963.8 882.1
Apricots "os 122.5 95.1
Nectarines (Ca) " : 211.0 210.0
Plums (Ca) "oo: 222.0 210.0
Dried Prunes (Ca) "oy 147.0 180.0
Olives (Ca) "oo 131.0 60.0
Pistachio (Ca) Lb: 118,000 48,000
Almonds (Ca) “ : 660,000 460,000
Walnuts Ton : 227 ,000.0

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 1991 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-6 NASS, USDA


Durum Wheat: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Planted Area Harvested

1989 : 1990 1/ : 1991 : 1989 : 1990 1/ : 1991

1,000 Acres

AL: 85 45 40 84 44 39

CA : 106 60 33 105 59 32
MN : 30 30 30 29 30 30
MT : 340 245 180 335 235 179
ND : 3,100 3,100 2,900 3,000 3,050 2,850
SD : 130 90 70 120 89 67
US: 3,253 3,673 3,507 3,197
Production
1991 1989 1991
---- Bushels
AZ 90.0 94.0 95.0 7,560 4,136 3,705
CA 83.0 95.0 105.0 8,715 5,605 3,360
MN : 36.0 44.0 32.0 1,044 1,320 960
MT :)—s(18.0 19.0 33.0 6,030 4,465 5,907
ND : 22.0 34.0 31.0 66,000 103,700 88,350
SD 24.0 36.0 25.0 2,880 3,204 1,675
US 25.1 34.9 32.5 92,229 122,430 103,957
l/ Revised.
Wheat: Production by Classes, United States, 1989-91 1/
Winter Spring
Year Hard Soft : : Hard : : Total
Red : Red : White : Red  : Durum : White
1,000 Bushels
1989 : 711,040 548,919 194,683 433,455 92,229 56,292 2,036,618
1990 : 1,198,782 547,126 284,966 554,678 122,430 28,446 2,736,428
1991 : 901,346 325,201 145,635 431,223 103,957 73,342 1,980,704

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on the latest varietal acreage survey
data available.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-19 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

(Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1990-91

Crop

Potatoes

Winter 2/

Spring

Summer

Fall

Total
Hops
Peaches
Sweet Cherries
Tart Cherries
Pears
Apricots
Nectarines (Ca)
Plums (Ca)
Dried Prunes (Ca)
Olives (Ca)
Pistachio Nuts (Ca)
Almonds (Ca)

Yield per Hectare Production
1990 : Ind 1991 1/ : 1990 : Ind 1991 1/
Metric Tons
19.90 23.96 106,280 118,340
28.48 26.11 1,096,020 923,510
26.88 26.42 1,047,660 1,048,890
33.89 15,989,450
32.88 18,239,410
1.79 1.81 25,790 29,010
1,000,260 1,154,390
142,160 108,410
94,710 72,850
874,340 800,230
111,130 86,270
191,420 190,510
201,400 190,510
133,360 163,290
118,840 54,430
53,520 21,770
299,370 208,650

Walnuts (Ca)

205,930,940

226,796,190

1/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/

Crop Production
October 1991

A-9

1991 revised.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested Yield Production
1990 :Ind 1991: 1989 1990 Ind 1991
- 1,000 Acres - -- Bushels --  ------- 1,000 Bushels -------
22 23 45.0 50.0 1,500 990 1,150
ef 2/ 2/ 2/ 240 2/ 2/
27 270 66.0 65.0 21,080 18,150 17,550

ay 2/ 2/ 2/ 810 2/

22 270 47.0 43.0 11,375 10,340 11,610
40 60 30.0 45.0 2,000 1,200 2,700
195 170 75.0 74.0 11,620 14,625 12,580
2,800 3,100 66.0 53.0 198,750 184,800 164,300
31 25 84.0 78.0 720 2,604 1,950
128 130 65.0 60.0 6,175 8,320 7,800
85 90 65.0 70.0 4,505 5,525 6,300
520 570 82.0 72.0 45,030 42,640 41,040
1,400 1,250 77.0 62.0 101,060 107,800 77,500
50 170 65.0 65.0 12,500 3,250 11,050
40 25. 46.0 55.0 35240 1,840 1,375
350 300 44.0 46.0 17,640 15,400 ° 13,800
8 20 33.0 40.0 450 264 800
260 300 55.0 44.0 10,400 14,300 13,200
55 70 77.0 73.0 2,025 4,235 5,110
2,600 2,900 52.0 61.0 164,300 135,200 176,900
9,079 9,743 62.9 58.2 615,420 571,483 566,715

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-25 NASS, USDA


Crop Agricultural

Statistics

Production Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released on October 10, 1991, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts
refer to October 1, 1991.

Soybeans Up 6 Percent
Corn Up 3 Percent

Corn for Grain production is forecast at 7.48 billion bushels, up 3 percent
from last month but 6 percent below the 1990 crop. The U.S. average yield per
acre is forecast at 108.8 bushels, up 2.7 bushels from last month but

9.7 bushels below the 1990 average yield. At the end of September 36 percent
of the crop was harvested in the 17 major producing States, 23 percentage
points ahead of last year and 17 points ahead of the five-year average.

Soybeans production is forecast at 1.93 billion bushels in 1991, up 6 percent
from the September 1 forecast and up fractionally from 1990. The average
yield is estimated to be 33.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels above the
September 1 yield but 1.1 bushels below 1990. Harvested yields were turning
out significantly better than earlier expected in the major producing States.

All Wheat production is estimated at 1.98 billion bushels, down 2 percent from
September 1 and down 28 percent from 1990. Yields averaged 34.3 bushels per
acre, down 0.3 and 5.2 bushels per acre from September 1 and last year,
respectively. Area harvested for grain, at 57.7 million acres, is down

17 percent from 1990.

All Cotton production for 1991 is forecast at 17.6 million bales, 1 percent
below the September 1 forecast but up 14 percent from 1990. This would be the
largest crop since 1937. Adverse weather conditions in Texas reduced the
crop's potential.

All Orange production is forecast at 8.19 million tons, 4 percent higher than
last season and 6 percent more than the 1989-90 crop.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report. For
information, cal] (202) 447-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (10-91)


Hazelnuts: Production by State and United States, 1989-91

Tons (In-Shell Basis)

OR : 12,800 21,500 25,700
WA 1/ : 200 200 300
US : 13,000 21,700 26,000

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

by Month, 1990-91

Fresh Production

1990: 1991

~-- 1,000 Pounds ~--
Aug : 3,760 3,675 2,175 2,080 6,160 3,240

Sep : 3,695 3,840 2,220 2,120 4,815 4,275

Oct : 3,655 2,405 5,170

Nov : 3,610 2,420 5,555

Dec : 3,400 2,285 4,645

Jan: 3,315 2,225 4,720
Cumulative Fresh Production Jan-Sep 42,630 32,340
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-48 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Planted and Harvested,
by State and United States, 1989-91

1990 2/ 1991
1,000 Acres

AZ : 15 17 22 12 15 20
CA : 320 300 240 250 230 160
co : 190 155 140 160 150 130
DE : 50 30 40 40 27 37
ID : 870 790 800 850 780 790
KS : 60 25 30 18 21 23
KY : 20 19 25 17 17 22
MD : 90 70 85 80 63 78
MI : 45 45 35 40 43 33
MN : 925 850 900 800 800 875
MT : 1,700 1,600 1,800 1,600 1,380 1,650
NE : 35 25 30 2m 22 27
NV : 12 12 8 11 9 4
No : 12 8 11 8 6 8
NM 3/ : 10 5
NC : 50 35 40 43 30 35
ND : 2,800 2,600 2,900 2,650 2,450 2,830
OK : 25 20 15 20 17 10
OR : 200 145 190 180 130 175
PA : 90 65 75 85 60 70
sc : 12 15 10 10 13 9
sD : 650 550 500 550 500 460
TX 25 30 30 15 16 10
UT 134 115 105 114 105 95
VA 95 100 105 75 80 85
WA 500 400 580 490 390 570
WI 80 70 85 65 50 72
WY 110 130 140 100 125 135
US 9,125 8,221 8,941 8,313 7,529 8,413
1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall.
2/ Revised.
3/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-12 NASS, USDA


Oats: Yield and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Yield Production

-------- 1,000 Bushels

AL 55.0 50.0 35.0 1,375 1,250 875
AR 73.0 60.0 56.0 4,380 2,700 1,680
CA 75.0 75.0 70.0 3,375 3,375 2,450
co 55.0 50.0 60.0 3,025 2,250 1,800
GA 59.0 56.0 50.0 4,130 2,240 3,000
10 68.0 66.0 68.0 4,080 1,980 3,060
IL 80.0 68.0 55.0 16,000 11,560 6,600
IN 72.0 69.0 57.0 6,840 4,830 2,565
IA : 72.0 68.0 50.0 54,000 40,800 21,250
KS : 45.0 55.0 53.0 9,000 6,600 5,830
KY 2/ : 60.0 480

ME : 70.0 65.0 60.0 2,590 2,015 1,380
MD : 55.0 58.0 35.0 1,320 986 420
MI 67.0 58.0 45.0 20,100 13,050 5,400
MN 55.0 66.0 40.0 46,750 48,180 22,800
MO 60.0 53.0 51.0 3,600 2,226 1,632
MT 46.0 40.0 55.0 6,670 2,800 6,050
NE : 36.0 48.0 54.0 8,640 13,440 11,880
NU 2/ : 44.0 264

NY : 59.0 61.0 50.0 9,145 8,235 5,000
NC 57.0 61.0 55.0 3,135 2,440 2,200
ND 31.0 51.0 $0.0 20,150 30,600 32,500
OH 63.0 70.0 60.0 15,750 16,100 10,200
OK 34.0 38.0 38.0 2,040 2,280 1,292
OR 98.0 102.0 105.0 6,860 4,590 4,725
PA 54.0 66.0 40.0 13,770 15,840 8,400
sc 59.0 57.0 §5.0 2,360 1,824 2,200
sD 40.0 56.0 §5.0 44,000 53,200 38,500
TX 33.0 41.0 40.0 6,600 9,225 7,200
UT : 74.0 68.0 77.0 1,258 816 616
VA 2/ : 55.0 495

WA: 63.0 66.0 65.0 2,835 2,640 2,600
wy : 50.0 57.0 45.0 300 342 225
WI : 66.0 67.0 §0.0 46,860 47,570 26,500
WY : 47.0 44.0 §3.0 1,410 1,540 1,696
us : 54.3 60.1 50.6 373,587 357,524 242,526
1/ Revised.

2/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.

Crop Production . Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-11 NASS, USDA


Regional yields are expected to be 639 pounds per harvested acre, down
5 pounds from September 1.

Ginnings totaled 2,478,200 running bales prior to October 1, compared with
2,616,209 running bales for the same date last year and 980,529 running bales
in 1989,

Cottonseed: Production for 1991, based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio,
is expected to total 6.81 million tons, up 14 percent from the
1990 production of 5.97 million tons.

All Hay: The production of all hay is forecast at 158 million tons. This

level is 1 percent above the August 1 forecast and 8 percent above
the quantity produced a year ago. The larger crop is the combined result of
higher yields and increased acreage. Area harvested is expected to total
63.1 million acres, an increase of 3 percent from 1990. Average yield is
forecast at 2.51 tons per acre compared with last year's yield of 2.39 tons
per acre.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: The alfalfa production forecast of 87.3 million
tons is 1 percent greater than the August

1 forecast and up 4 percent from the 1990 total. The larger crop is coming

from more acres and higher yields. Area for harvest, at 25.8 million acres,

exceeds last year by 2 percent. Average yield is forecast at 3.38 tons per

acre, 0.09 of a ton higher than the 1990 yield.

All Other Hay: Production of all other hay is forecast at 71.1 million tons,
1 percent larger than August 1 expectations and 12 percent

more than the 1990 output. Area for harvest, at 37.3 million acres, is up

3 percent from a year earlier. Yield is expected to average 1.91 tons per

acre, up 0.02 of a ton from the August 1 forecast and 0.16 of a ton greater

than the previous year.

Dry Edible Beans: The 1991 crop of dry beans is forecast at 32.4 million cwt,
2 percent above the September 1 forecast and virtually the

same as last year. Area for harvest, at 1.87 million acres, is down

10 percent from a year ago but yields are projected at a record high

1,734 pounds per acre, a gain of 180 pounds over last year.

Michigan dry bean yields reached a record high after nearly perfect growing
and harvest seasons. The State's production is now placed at 5.95 million
cwt, up 9 percent from the September 1 forecast. With harvest more than

95 percent complete, North Dakota farmers expect to produce 7.25 million cwt
of dry beans, 45 percent above last year and ending three years of drought
reduced crops. Rains interrupted harvest in Nebraska early in September.
Frost and hail in mid-month damaged fields in both Nebraska and Wyoming
resulting in yield reductions. The effect of September's hot weather in New
York reduced prospects in that State. The Colorado crop was about
three-fourths harvested by the end of September. Idaho and Washington bean
harvests are two-thirds along; late for Idaho and about normal for Washington.
jn California, under nearly ideal conditions, harvest was in full swing on
ictober

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-13 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit:

Production : Production
Boxes : Ton Equivalent
Crop mec t monn r rarer nnn nnn nn nnn nn on nnn nnn nance nnn cencnes
and Utilized

State j-------------------- : Ind:
: 1990-91 : 1991-92 :

Oranges, Early Mid
& Navel 3/ :
AZ : 390 550 700 14 20 26

CA > 44,300 15,800 29,000 1,661 593 1,088
FL : 68,100 87,500 80,000 3,064 3,937 3,600
TX 4/ : 1,050 60 44 3
US 113,840 103,850 109,760 4,783 4,550 4,717
Oranges, Valencia
itd : 1,220 1,200 1,400 45 45 53
CA + 27,100 11,000 24,000 1,016 412 900
FL > 42,100 64,000 56,000 1,894 2,880 2,520
TX 4/ : 155 35 7 1
US : 70,575 76,200 81,435 2,962 3,337 3,474
All Oranges
AZ : 1,610 1,750 2,100 59 65 79
CA : 71,400 26,800 53,000 2,677 1,005 1,988
FL : 110,200 151,500 136,000 4,958 6,817 6,120
TX 4/ : 1,205 95 51 4
US : 184,415 180,050 191,195 7,745 7,887 8,191
Temples :
Fi 1,400 2,500 2,600 63 113 117
Grapefruit, White
Seedless
FL 18,000 21,700 20,000 765 922 850
Grapefruit, Colored
Seedless
FL 16,300 21,800 21,000 693 926 893
Other Grapefruit
FL 1,400 1,600 1,500 60 68 64
All Grapefruit
AZ 2,200 2,400 2,300 70 77 74
CA 5/ :
Desert : 3,500 3,500 3,500 112 112 112
Other Areas : 5,900 4,500 198 150
Total : 9,400 8,000 310 262
FL : 35,700 45,100 42,500 1,518 1,916 1,807
TX. 4/ : 2,000 115 80 5
US : 49,300 55,500 1,978 2,255
Tangerines :
AZ : 600 600 700 22 23 26
CA : 1,650 1,300 1,500 62 49 56
FL : 1,700 1,950 2,600 80 92 124
US : 3,950 3,850 4,800 164 164 206 .
Lemons :
: 2,800 4,100 4,600 106 156 175
CA : 15,800 14,900 13,500 600 566 513
US : 18,600 19,000 18,100 706 722 688
Tangelos i
F 2,950 2,650 2,600 132 119 117
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-44 NASS, USDA


All Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,.. «.:'.-,%
by State and United States, 1989-91
: Area Harvested Yield , ~
State :---------- 2 --- ono nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nn nnn nn nnn nnn errr
1990 Ind 1991: 1990 Ind 1991 :

- 1,000 Acres -
AL: 750 780 1.50 2.40 1,540 1,125
AZ : 195 200 7.29 7.22 1,280 1,421
AR : 975 1,100 1.78 2.22 2,228 1,738
CA : 1,630 1,680 5.10 5.00 8,524 8,307 °
co : 1,550 1,600 2.45 2.67 3,450 3,805
cT 1/: 86 86 2.30 2.02 171 198
DE 1/ : 23 20 2.96 2.50 73 68
FL : 240 230 2.30 3.00 598 552
GA : 570 570 2.00 3.00 1,620 1,140
ID : 1,130 1,230 3.61 3.69 4,043 4,084
IL : 900 950 3.72 2.91 3,526 3,348
IN : 700 650 3.17 2.60 2,365 2,220
IA : 2,000 2,000 3.55 3.29 6,650 7,095
KS : 2,500 2,300 2.44 2.09 5,620 6,100
KY : 2,200 2,300 2.20 2.23 5,501 4,848
LA : 300 300 2.20 2.30 781 660
ME 1/ : 222 222 1.91 1.82 420 423
MD 1/: 225 215 3.01 2.39 629 678
MA 1/ : 103 107 2.26 2.08 237 233
MI > 1,450 1,450 3.68 3.46 5,205 5,335
MN : 2,400 2,600 2.73 3.25 6,400 6,560
MS : 575 700 1.80 2.50 1,560 1,035
MO : 3,580 3,700 1.92 1.89 6,764 6,865
MT : 2,150 2,400 2.09 2.18 4,470 4,495
NE : 3,800 3,500 1.94 2.04 5,705 7,370
NV : 490 475 2.77 2.59 1,463 1,359
NH 1/ : 76 76 2.09 1.97 167 159
NJ 1/: 110 110 2.24 2.12 241 246
NM : 320 320 4.30 4.30 1,332 1,376
NY : 1,980 1,950 2.21 2.19 4,538 4,377
NC : 470 520 2.15 2.26 1,161 1,011
ND : 3,500 3,400 1.07 1.58 3,020. 3,745
OH =: ~—=—«1,400 1,350 3.30 2.50 4,553 45620
OK : 2,130 2,300 1.84 2.01 §,115 3,926
OR : 1,020 1,050 2.77 2.71 2,890 2,826
PA : 1,900 1,890 2.48 2.07 4,709 4,719
RI 1/ : 7 8 2.57 2.13 17 18
SC : 240 260 1.90 2.40 564 456
sD 4,200 4,500 1.50 1.77 4,290 6,300
IN 1,500 1,660 2.17 2.36 3,499 3,255
1X 3,900 4,100 2.05 2.55 9,582 8,000
UT 625 630 3.40 3.58 1,986 2,123
VT 1/ 365 360 2.12 1.89 754 772
VA 1,160 1,170 2.24 2.21 2,565 2,600
WA 790 815 3.87 3.80 2,814 3,056 -
WV 560 560 2.04 1.68 1,036 1,142
WI 3,400 3,400 2.68 3.43 8,080 9,120
WY 1,160 1,340 1.79 1.95 1,776 2,076 :
US 61,557 63,134 2.39 2.51 145,512 146,985. -

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-32 oe NASS;-. USDA



Small Grain Annual Summary

The October 1 Crop Production report contains the end-of-season acreage,
yield, and production estimates for small grains (wheat, oats, barley, and
rye). These estimates were based in part on a survey of approximately

70,000 farm operators conducted the first two weeks of September. Final after
harvest objective yield surveys, earlier acreage surveys, and administrative
data were also considered in developing these estimates. The harvest was near
completion when the surveys were conducted. States in the Pacific Northwest
and States eastward to the Dakotas were given the opportunity to re-survey
producers with unharvested grain as late as the end of September to obtain
after harvest yield data.

Procedures to prepare the annual summary estimates were similar to those used
during the forecast season. National and State level survey indications are
reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical
indications. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns
and crop progress throughout the growing season compared to historical years.
Each State Statistical Office submitted their analysis of individual crops to
the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB used the survey data and the
State analyses to prepare the published estimates.

In previous years, the small grain annual summary estimates have been subject
to revisions again in December and were published in the Crop Production
Summary. Since late harvesting small grain States now have the opportunity to
re-survey late harvested fields, the intent of the ASB is to not consider
small grain revisions again until October 1, 1992. At that time, most
administrative and marketing data will be available for consideration. The
ASB will utilize a balance sheet considering beginning stocks, production,
exports, processed grain, feed use, and ending stocks to ensure that all
available data have been properly considered and all data have relationships
to the estimates that are reasonable considering history. Revisions following
the annual summary production estimate have generally been less than one
percent and rarely exceed two percent.

Oats: Production of oats in 1991 is estimated at 243 million bushels,

32 percent below the 1990 crop and the lowest production since
1988. Yield per acre for grain averaged 50.6 bushels, down 9.5 bushels from
last year. Area harvested for grain, at 4.80 million acres, is down
19 percent from last year, and is the smallest harvested acreage since
estimates were first made in 1866. Seeded area totaled 8.65 million acres,
down 17 percent from 1990.

Oat production declined 7 percent from the August 1 forecast. Less than
expected acreage for harvest in most States, as well as a 1.6 bushel decline
in yields, caused the lower production.

Barley: Barley production in 1991 is estimated at 464 million bushels,

10 percent above last year's crop of 422 million bushels. Average
yield per acre, at 55.2 bushels, is down 0.9 bushel from the 1990 yield. The
area harvested for grain is estimated at 8.41 million acres, 12 percent more

than last year. Seeded area totaled 8.94 million acres, up 9 percent from
1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-1 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by Type, State, and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested Production 1/

1990 Ind 1991
-- Pounds --- 9 ------ 1,000 Bales 2.

0 476 565 383.0 375.0 500.0

-0 1,110 1,237 649.0 805.0 925.0

0 692 733 851.0 1,081.0 1,450.0

-0 1,204 1,187 2,661.0 2,734.0 2,300.0

-0 640 720 29.0 48.0 75.0

-0 555 700 342.0 405.0 620.0

8 280 320 0.2 0.7 1.2

0 715 779 868.0 1,177.0 1,250.0

0 728 174 1,555.0 1,850.0 2,000.0

0 641 670 269.0 314.0 370.0

0 735 686 80.0 95.0 90.0

0 631 653 141.0 263.0 620.0

0 496 366 173.0 382.0 320.0

0 452 635 154.0 145.0 275.0

0 461 453 476.0 495.0 580.0

0 477 464 2,870.0 4,965.0 5,800.0

5 562 675 2.7 6.2 24.6

3 632 626 11,503.9 15,140.9 17,200.8

124.0 104.5 751 965 477.0 194.0 210.0
25.5 60.0 1,080 1,040 40.2 57.4 130.0
1.3 1.0 591 528 1.0 1.6 1.1
19.3 20.0 609 600 44.5 24.5 25.0
57.0 58.0 682 646 129.0 81.0 78.0
US 227.1 243.5 758 875 691.7 358.5 444.1
425.0 476 565 383.0 375.0 500.0

463.5 1,016 1,175 1,126.0 999.0 1,135.0

950.0 692 733 851.0 1,081.0 1,450.0

990.0 1,201 1,178 2,701.2 2,791.4 2,430.0

50.0 640 720 29.0 48.0 75.0

425.0 555 700 342.0 405.0 620.0

1.8 280 320 0.2 0.7 1.2

770.0 715 779 868.0 1,177.0 1,250.0

1,241.0 728 774 1,556.0 1,851.6 2,001.1

265.0 641 670 269.0 314.0 370.0

83.0 706 665 124.5 119.5 115.0

456.0 631 653 141.0 263.0 620.0

420.0 496 366 173.0 382.0 320.0

208.0 452 635 154.0 145.0 275.0

615.0 461 453 476.0 495.0 580.0

6,058.0 479 466 2,999.0 5,046.0 5,878.0

17.5 562 675 2.7 6.2 24.6

13, 438.8 634 630 12,195.6 15,499.4 17,644.9

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-31 NASS, USDA


completed by mid-October. Dry weather limited potential yields in Illinois,
Missouri, and Ohio. Indiana has had a good year for the apple crop despite
some weather and disease problems.

The Western States' production forecast, at 5.82 billion pounds, is almost the
same as the August 1 forecast and 4 percent less than the 1990 crop.
Production prospects declined in Oregon but remained unchanged in the other
Western States. Freeze damage, poor pollination weather, hail, and small
fruit have limited the size of the Oregon crop. Washington's crop is

1-2 weeks later than normal because of the cool spring and late bloom.

Harvest of an excellent Golden Delicious crop is well underway. Harvest of
Red Delicious apples has started as growers have been waiting for the fruit to
get additional size and color. Picking of a good quality crop continues in
California. Some delays in coloring have been noted.

Pecans: The October 1 forecast for the U.S. pecan crop is 271 million pounds
(in-shel] basis), down 7 percent from September 1 but up 32 percent
from last year's smal] crop.

The Georgia pecan forecast is 95.0 million pounds, a 17 percent decline from
last month's forecast. Many groves have shed foliage four to six weeks early
and nut droppage has been heavy. The sharp decline results primarily from
aphids, disease, and dry weather. Quality is expected to be marginal. The
Texas forecast remains unchanged from last month at 65.0 million pounds.
Disease problems continue for Texas pecan growers.

The Alabama crop is forecast at 13.0 million pounds, a 13 percent decline from
last month. Scab is a serious problem in the crop and quality is questionable
at this time. Arkansas expects to harvest 1.20 million pounds of pecans,
unchanged from last month. Yields have been reduced due to diseases. The
California forecast remains unchanged from last month at 2.80 million pounds.
Nut quality is good but smaller sizes are expected. The Florida pecan
forecast is 4.20 million pounds, a 14 percent increase over last month.
Louisiana's forecast remains unchanged at 15.0 million pounds. Pecan harvest
is 5 percent complete as of October 1 with fair quality reported. The
Mississippi forecast has been lowered 12 percent from last month to

7.00 million pounds. The southern area of the State has little production.
New Mexico's pecan crop is forecast at 29.0 million pounds, a 4 percent
increase from September 1 but a 15 percent decline from 1990. Oklahoma's
forecast is 15.0 million pounds, 7 percent above last month. The crop
improved during September but insect problems continue. The South Carolina
forecast has been reduced 14 percent this month to 3.00 million pounds. The
crop continues to experience scab problems and premature nut droppage.

Hazelnuts: The 1991 hazelnut production in Oregon and Washington is expected

to total a record high 26,000 tons, unchanged from the previous
forecast. If realized, this year's crop would be 20 percent more than last
year and 6 percent more than the previous record high of 24,600 tons set in
1985.

Maturity of the crop is one to two weeks behind normal with harvest just
beginning on October 1. Hot, dry weather during September aided crop
development and has provided excellent harvesting conditions.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-20 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States, 1990-91
(Metric Units)

Production

: Indicated 1991
Ind : Docc atten rrr mn nnn nn
1991 : 1990: Sep 1

Metric Tons

Crop

Corn for Grain 7.44 6.83 201,509,210 185,303,340 189,986,040
Sorghum for Grain 3.95 3.65 14,516,340 13,911,330 14,395,220
Rice : 6.17 6.24 7,027,010 7,143,130 7,153,970
Soybeans for Beans 1/ : 2.29 2.22 52,415,690 49,445,870 52,623,150
Peanuts for Nuts 2 2.23 2,82 1,634,180 2,278,470 2,238,580
Sunflower 1/ : 1.38 1.46 1,031,650 1,498,190
All Cotton : 471 71 3,374,580 3,890,370 3,841,700

Upland 2 FL 70 3,296,530 3,798,360 3,745,010

Amer-Pima 2 85 98 78,050 92,010 96,690
Cottonseed : 5,412,720 6,262,020 6,181,100
All Hay : 5.35 5.62 133,342,550 2/142,296,460 143,679,920

Alfalfa : 7.37 7.57 75,799,820 2/78,232,890 79,196,320

All Other > 3.93 4.27 57,542,730 2/64,063,570 64,483,600
Dry Edible Beans : 1.74 1.94 1,470,950 1,447,550 1,470,770
Dry Edible Peas 1/ 1.67 2.23 107,590 168,510
Austrian Winter :

Peas 1/ : 1.24 1.37 5,760 6,350
Lentils 1/ 7.94 1.55 39,690 75,800
Tobacco : 2.49 2.40 737,150 739,970 742,850
Sugarbeets 744.86 44.30 24,982,050 24,999,290 24,878,630
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed 279.42 79.43 25,524,550 28,707,860 28,774,990
Apples, comm'] : 4,398,390  2/4,561,330 4,593,760
Grapes : 5,134,570 4,777,960 4,886,820
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl Ca) : 43,360 24,310 23,590
Pecans : 92,990 132,450 122,920
Hazelnuts : 19,690 3/23,590 23,590

1990-91 1991-92
Citrus Fruits 4/
Oranges 7,154,970 7,430,750
Lemons 654,990 624,140

1/ 1990 revised.

2/ Aug 1, 1991.

3/ Mid-August forecast published in “Hazelnut Production" released
August 27, 1991.

4/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-8 NASS, USDA


Rye: Yield and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Yield : Production

1990 1/ 1990 1/

-- Bushels
co > 20.0 28.0 26.0 80 84 78
DE 2/ : 35.0 70
GA : 23.0 22.0 20.0 1,610 1,320 1,300
IL : 39.0 33.0 27.0 312 165 162
IN > 34.0 31.0 25.0 204 124 100
IA 2/ : 37.0 185
KS : 16.0 26.0 23.0 80 130 115
KY 2/.: 32.0 64
MD : «27.0 30.0 32.0 216 210 224
MI 33.0 29.0 20.0 825 580 360
MN 34.0 31.0 27.0 1,088 868 648
MO 2/ : 30.0 90
NE : 20.0 25.0 20.0 600 750 1,000
NJ : 26.0 24.0 32.0 182 144 192
NY 32.0 26.0 33.0 480 260 264
NC 21.0 23.0 25.0 525 345 500
ND 28.0 30.0 31.0 1,064 780 992
OH 31.0 35.0 31.0 155 175 155
OK 19.0 21.0 19.0 532 420 665
OR 2/ 25.0 75
PA 32.0 31.0 27.0 576 496 297
sc 23.0 22.0 21.0 644 594 630
SD 36.0 34.0 36.0 3,240 1,870 1,152
TX 18.0 14.0 19.0 126 140 228
VA 33.0 32.0 33.0 264 256 264
WI 30.0 31.0 29.0 360 465 435
US 2 28.2 27.1 24.6 13,647 10,176 9,761
l/ Revised.
2/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-22 NASS, USDA


Sunflower: Production is forecast at 3.30 billion pounds in 1991, 45 percent

above 1990 and 88 percent above the 1989 crop. Harvested area is
estimated at 2.53 million acres, 37 percent above 1990 but fractionally below
the June 1991 acreage estimate.

The North Dakota sunflower crop was planted ahead of normal in 1991 and
benefitted from plentiful rainfall through July. Harvest progress was
13 percent complete as of September 29, 4 points ahead of the average.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at a record high 4.94 billion pounds, down

2 percent from the September 1 forecast but up 37 percent from last
year. Yields are expected to average 2,513 pounds per harvested acre, down
45 pounds from last month but up 522 pounds from 1990. Lack of September
moisture following excessively wet conditions during August lowered yield
expectations. Harvested area, estimated at 1.96 million acres, is 9 percent
above last year.

Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina) is expected to total 3.25 billion pounds. This total is 3 percent
below September 1 but up 63 percent from 1990. Yield for the 4-State area is
expected to average 2,585 pounds per acre, 823 pounds more than last year's
drought stricken yields. In Georgia, September's generally hot, dry weather
placed late planted peanuts under stress. Soil compaction from earlier wet
conditions have made digging difficult. Alabama's harvest was well ahead of
average with 70 percent dug and 59 percent combined by September 29. Dry
conditions hastened maturity but hurt yield prospects.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 764 million pounds, down

3 percent from last year. Yield per harvested acre, at 2,937 pounds, is

73 pounds below last year's average. North Carolina's crop benefitted from
September moisture by making soils soft for digging. Threshing was 10 percent
completed by September 29. Virginia producers irrigated harder soils to
improve digging conditions.

The Southwest peanut crop (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to
total 918 million pounds, unchanged from the September 1 forecast and up

12 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,062 pounds per
acre, 86 pounds above last year's yield. Limited harvest in the Blacklands of
Texas was delayed by rainfall.

All Cotton: All cotton production is forecast at 17.6 million bales, down

1 percent from September 1 but up 14 percent from last year's
production. Of the total, Upland is expected to account for 17.2 million
bales, while Pima production accounts for 444,100 bales. Total area for
harvest is estimated at 13.4 million acres, up 15 percent from 1990. Yield is
expected to average 630 pounds per acre, 8 pounds below the September 1
forecast and 4 pounds below last year.

Upland cotton production in Texas and Oklahoma is forecast at 6.12 million
bales, down 5 percent from the September 1 forecast but 14 percent above 1990.
Open weather in Central Texas for an extended period permitted harvest to
progress. Harvest of an excellent crop in eastern areas was hampered by poor
harvest conditions and West Texas cotton was adversely affected by cold
temperatures causing yield prospects to diminish.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-11 NASS, USDA


the 1989-90 crop. California's Valencia forecast, at 24.0 million boxes, is
118 percent greater than last season but 11 percent Tess than the crop
harvested in 1989-90.

The Arizona all orange crop is expected to total 2.10 million boxes,

20 percent more than last season and 30 percent higher than the 1989-90 crop.
The Texas all orange forecast is 95,000 boxes. Last season there was no
commercial production in Texas due to the December 1989 freeze.

The October 1 U.S. all orange production forecast has deviated from the final
production by an average of 24.6 million boxes over the past 10 seasons,
ranging from a low of 8.00 million boxes in 1988-89 to a high of 53.1 million
boxes in the 1983-84 season. The large difference between the October 1, 1983
forecast and the final production for the 1983-84 season was the result of the
late December 1983 freeze losses to the Florida and Texas citrus crops.

Florida Frozen Concentrated Juice Yield: The 1991-92 forecast of all Frozen

Concentrated Orange Juice for
Florida is 1.50 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast is
projected to estimate the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus
Processors Association, The final 1990-91 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ
was 1.45 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

Grapefruit: The 1991-92 U.S. grapefruit production is forecast at
2.00 million tons, 11 percent less than last season. This
forecast does not include the California "Other Areas" crop. Last year, the
California "Other Areas" grapefruit crop totaled 150,000 tons (4.50 million
boxes) . The first forecast for that type of grapefruit will be made on April
: :

Florida's grapefruit forecast is 42.5 million boxes, 6 percent below last
season's crop but 19 percent above the freeze~damaged 1989-90 crop. The
Florida white seedless forecast is 20.0 million boxes, down 8 percent from
last season; colored seedless is 21.0 million boxes, down 4 percent; and seedy
grapefruit at 1.50 million boxes is down 6 percent from the 1990-91 season.

The forecast for the California Desert grapefruit crop is 3.50 million boxes,
unchanged from last season. Arizona's grapefruit crop is forecast at

2.30 million boxes, down 4 percent from 1990-91 season. Texas production is
forecast at 115,000 boxes. Last year Texas had no commercial production due
to the severe freeze of December 1989.

Lemons: The Arizona - California crop is expected to total 688,000 tons,

5 percent below last season and 3 percent below the utilized crop in
1989-90. California's forecast of 13.5 million boxes is 9 percent below last
season's production. The decrease is the result of slight damage to the crop
during the December 1990 freeze. The Arizona crop is forecast at 4.60 million
boxes, 12 percent above last season. Fruit quality is rated as good to
excellent at this time.

Tangelos: The initial Florida tangelo crop forecast is 2.60 million boxes,
2 percent below last season and 12 percent less than
1989-90 production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-18 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-9] 1/

State :

CT : 1,820 1,750 1,652

FL: 6,900 6,900 23760
GA  : 43,000 41;000 23415
IN: 6,400 7:200 2,100
KY : 1945150 2233300 25278
MD: 7,100 7,400 1°360
MA: 470 480 1,713
MO  : 2,600 3,000 2,280
NC : 2845200 2785900 2,251
OH =: 95700 10,500 1,950
PA: 10,000 10;500 1,978
SC: 51,000 513000 23155
IN : 533590 60,680 2,094
VA: 53,180 52,480 2,074
We: ~—-'13700 = «13900-13600
WI: «6,900 »=—7,400=—«1,989
US 732,710 764,390 2,218

Area Harvested : Yield

1,598
23250
25000
23100
25099
1370
13615
23150
23240
23150
1,896
23250
23068
2,101
15600
23070

Production

2,793 3,007
177755 195044
87,200 1035845
13,237 135440

366,551 442; 253
746 805
5,450 5,928
541,056 639,639
15,925 18,915
173925 19;780

1033680 109,905
79,820 1123218
933814 110,269

13885 23720
113248 135723

1,367,188 1,625,147

Ind 1991

2,797
153525
82000
155120

468,735
10; 138
715
6,450
624,855
223575
195905
1143750
125,477
1105244

35040
15,320

1,637,706

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production
October 1991

A-39

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Tobacco by Class and Type: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1990-91

Production
Class and Type Poeecc ee -+---- +2 oon
nd 1991: 1990 :Ind 1991
Class 1, Flue-Cured --- Pounds --- ~ 1,000 Pounds -
Type li, Old and :

Middle Belts :

NC : 106,000 104,000 2,090 2,250 221,540 234,000
VA : 40,000 38,000 2,120 2,150 84,800 81,700
US : 146,000 142,000 2,098 2,223 306,340 315,700
Type 12, Eastern NC :

elt

NC : 135,000 131,000 2,370 2,250 319,950 294,750
Type 13, NC Border & :
SC Belt :

NC : 35,000 35,000 2,290 2,250 80,150 78,750

Sc : 51,000 51,000 2,155 2,250 109,905 114,750

US : 86,000 86,000 2,210 2,250 190,055 193,500
Type 14, GA-FL Belt

L : 6,900 6,900 2,760 2,250 19,044 15,525

GA : 43,000 41,000 2,415 2,000 103,845 82,000

Us : 49,900 47,900 2,463 2,036 122,889 97,525
Total 11-14 : 416,900 406,900 2,253 2,215 939,234 901,475

Class 2, Fire-Cured

Type 21, VA Belt
A 2,100 2,400 1,315 1,350 2,762 3,240

Type 22, Eastern

District

KY 3,150 3,300 2,450 2,100 7,718 6,930
TN 6,600 6,600 2,305 2,200 15,213 14,520
US 95750 9,900 2,352 2,167 22,931 21,450

Type 23, Western
Dist rict

KY > 3,100 3,200 2,600 2,100 8,060 6,720
TN : 490 490 2,500 2,300 1,225 1,127
US : 3,590 3,690 2,586 2,127 9,285 7,847
Total 21-23 : 15,440 15,990 2,265 2,035 34,978 32,537

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3a, Light
Air-Cured
Type 31, Burley

N : 6,400 (7,200 2,100 2,100 13,440 15,120
KY : 185,000 213,000 2,270 2,100 419,950 447,300

MO 1/ 2,600 3,000 2,280 2,150 5,928 6,450
NC 8,200 8,900 2,195 1,950 17,999 17,355
OH 9,700 10,500 1,950 2,150 18,915 22,575
TN 46,000 53,000 2,060 2:050 94.760 108,650
VA 11,000 12,000 2,055 2,100 22,605 25,200
Wo1/ 1,700 1,900 1,600 1,600 2,720 3,040
US 270; 600 309,500 2,204 2,086 596,317 645,690
Type 32, Southern MD
Belt
MD 7,100 7,400 1,360 1,370 9,656 10,138
PA 3,600 3,800 1,850 1,800 6,660 6,840

US : 10,700 11,200 1,525 1,516 16,316 16,978
Total 31-32 281,300 320,700 2,178 2,066 612,633 662,668
1l/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

--continued

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
Qctober 1991 A-40 NASS, USDA



progressed at a near-normal pace throughout the month, reaching 48 percent
{%) complete by September 29, matching the 5-year average progress for the
date. Dry weather during the second half of the month heightened concerns
over soil moisture in Kansas and the northern Great Plains, compelling some
growers to delay planting.

September Crop Development: Harvests of principal field crops were getting

underway between rains in early September as
thunderstorms frequented the eastern two-thirds of the Nation. The West,
meanwhile, remained mostly dry. Widespread rains fell over Texas, Oklahoma,
and the East during the latter half of the month, while dry weather prevailed
elsewhere. Soils remained excessively dry in the central regions of Kansas,
Oregon, Washington, and Virginia throughout the month, and soil moisture
remained short to adequate across the Midwest. Above-normal temperatures
early in the month brought crops to maturity ahead of schedule in most States
and minimized the impact of lower temperatures later in the month.

Corn harvest was underway in the South entering September, and starting in the
Cornbelt. Rains early in the month provided some relief from drought
conditions in the eastern Cornbelt, but the corn crop was generally too mature
to benefit. Harvest was in full swing throughout the month, and progressed
much faster than usual. Harvest was 36 percent (%) complete in the 17 major
producing States by the end of the month, 23 percentage points ahead of last
year and 17 points ahead of the 5-year average. Ninety-four percent of the
crop was mature, compared with 71% last year and 80% average. Crop maturity
was slightly behind normal in Colorado, Iowa, and Texas but ahead of schedule
in the other major States.

The soybean crop, paced by much earlier-than-normal development in the eastern
Cornbelt and South Dakota, entered September with progress of pod setting and
leaf dropping ahead of both last year and the historic average. Harvest was
just getting underway in the earliest maturing fields. Rains early in the
month benefited late seeded acreage, and high temperatures kept crop
development ahead of schedule. An early freeze hit the Midwest the third week
in September and some damage to late planted fields was reported in north-
central Iowa, northern Missouri, and south-central Minnesota. Crop condition
remained poor throughout the month in Kansas, as rainfall was sparse. By the
end of the month, harvest was in full swing in the Northern States and getting
underway in the southern Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. Nationwide,
harvest was 23% complete by September 29, compared with 9% last year and

16% average.

Cotton progress remained behind schedule entering September due to the effects
of late seeding in the Delta and cool early season weather in the West.
Picking was underway in south-central Texas and was beginning in Alabama.
Picking became more widespread in the East as the month progressed, while
frequent rains in Texas complicated harvest. California and New Mexico
growers had yet to begin picking at the end of September, while Nationwide
progress had advanced to 16% complete, 5 percentage points behind last year
and 3 points behind the average.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-7 NASS, USDA


State : 1990 Area Planted

AL
AR
DE
FL
GA
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
MD
MI
MN

1/_ Revised.

Crop Production
October 1991

State : 1990 Area Planted

Sunflower: Area Planted, by Varietal Type,
State, and United States, 1990

Varietal Type

Oil Non-0i1 :
1,000 Acres :
50 25 ot 18
70 70 . “140
980 390 1,370
285 15 _* "300
5 15 ‘ “20 ©
1,390 515 "1,905

Agricultural Statistics Board
A-28 NASS, USDA


58.6 million acres, is unchanged from the September 1 forecast and 4 percent
above 1990.

Harvested yields are turning out significantly better than earlier expected in
the major producing States. Timely August and September rains were received
over most of the Corn Belt. The western Corn Belt escaped with relatively
light frost damage. The midwest realized generally favorable growing and
maturing weather. These factors resulted in retaining a much better pod set
than earlier expected. Average pod weights and above average pod numbers are
surprising growers as harvest of the 1991 crop progresses.

U.S, SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
1982 - 1991

BILLION BUSHELS
2.19

2.10

1.9.

es
>
oO
os

192 193 1.93

1.64

2.00 HS

1.55

1.50

Vi

: ILL.
ZL

0.50 |

VLU
Wl
Wee

Lill

0.00
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91

YEAR

Soybean Revisions ~ 1990: The 1990 soybean production was revised to

1.93 billion bushels, up fractionally from the
previous 1990 estimate. Yield is now estimated at 34.1 bushels per acre, up
0.1 bushel from the unrevised number. Harvested area, at 56.5 million acres,
is virtually unchanged from the preliminary 1990 estimate.

These revisions were made based upon availability of additional data in some
States, end of marketing year stock estimates, and disappearance data for
exports and crushings.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-10 NASS, USDA


Temples: Florida's October 1 temple forecast is 2.60 million boxes, 4 percent
more than the 1990-91 crop.

Tangerines: The U.S. all tangerine forecast is 206,000 tons, up 26 percent

from last season. This forecast includes the Dancy, Robinson,
Honey, and Sunburst varieties of tangerines in Florida as well as production
of California and Arizona tangerines.

The Florida forecast is 2.60 million boxes, an increase of 33 percent over the
1990-91 production. California's production is forecast at 1.50 million
boxes, up 15 percent over the previous season. The Arizona tangerine crop is
forecast at 700,000 boxes, 17 percent more than last season. Groves are rated
in good to excellent condition at this time.

Florida Citrus: Groves in all areas of Florida's citrus belt are in very good
to excellent condition. Moisture is adequate following
two weeks of above average rainfall. New growth slowed with the fewer
daylight hours. Some fruit loss from splitting occurred in areas where there
was excessive moisture and poor drainage. Early harvest was active in all
areas during September. Over a million boxes of grapefruit were shipped
during September and almost one-half million boxes of early oranges and
Navels. Also included in these early shipments were several thousand boxes of
early tangerines and K-Early citrus fruit. Caretakers were active cutting
cover crops, spraying, fertilizing, and planting new trees.

Texas Citrus: Groves in the Rio Grande Valley spent the 1990-91 season

recovering from the December 1989 freeze. New growth was good
and growers were busy replacing damaged trees. Orange bloom was better than
grapefruit bloom because orange trees have recovered more quickly. Grackles
have caused problems to the small crop. The light crop this season should be
of fair to good quality.

Apples: The final forecast of the 1991 apple crop places production at
10.1 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the August 1 forecast and
4 percent more than last year's crop.

The Eastern States expect 3.01 billion pounds, virtually unchanged from
August 1 but 21 percent above the 1990 output. Hurricane Bob caused damage to
the crop in all New England States except Vermont. Fruit size and quality
have been improved by recent rains in Vermont. In New Jersey, recent rains
and cool weather improved fruit size and color. September rains increased
fruit size in the New York crop but color is still lacking. Harvest is ahead
of normal in North Carolina. Early variety apples in Pennsylvania were small
and lacked color. The quality of later maturing varieties should be better.
This year's variable weather patterns have caused the condition of Virginia's
crop to range from poor to excellent. Late season rains improved fruit size
and cool nights and dry weather increased sugar content. Some hail damage was
reported. Dry weather, hail damage, and high winds limited West Virginia's
potential. Fruit lacks size and color.

Production in the Central States is forecast at 1.30 billion pounds, 7 percent
more than the August 1 forecast and 13 percent more than last year. The sharp
increase from the August 1 forecast in Michigan's crop estimate, which picked
out better than expected, more than offset declines in Illinois, Missouri, and
Ohio. Harvest is 3-4 weeks ahead of normal in Michigan and should be

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-19 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested United States,
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

Indicated

1990

Corn : 74,171 75,909 66,952 68,740

Sorghum : 10,535 11,046 9,079 9,743
Rice : 2,887.0 2,870.0 2,813.0 2,831.0
Soybeans 2/ : 57,795 59,775 56,512 58,633
Peanuts : 1,840.0 1,990.0 1,809.5 1,963.5
Sunflower 2/ : 1,905 2,595 1,851 2,530
All Cotton > 12,348.1 14,101.2 11,731.6 13, 438.8
Upland : 12,116.8 13,855.0 11,504.5 13,195.3
Amer-Pima 3/ Hy 231.3 246.2 227.1 243.5
All Hay : 61,557 63,134
Alfalfa : 25,401 25,845
All Other : 36,156 37,289
Dry Edible Beans : 2,178.6 1,933.0 2,086.4 1,870.2
Dry Edible Peas 2/ : 166.0 190.0 159.0 187.0
Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : 13.5 13.0 11.5 11.5
Lentils 2/ : 108.0 123.0 104.0 121.0
Tobacco : 732.7 764.4
2 1,387.8

Sugarbeets : 1,399.4 1,405.7 1,376.
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed

794 895.2

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, i.e., grain, beans, nuts, etc.
2/ 1990 revised.
3/ 1991 planted acres revised for Arizona to 105,000.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-4 NASS, USDA


Pecans: Production by Type, State, and United States, 1989-91

Production
Type and State Utilized Ind
waa ee -- === === === == n
1989 1990 1991
1,000 Pounds
Pecans Improved 1/
AL : 13,000 4,000 9,000
AR : 100 100 500
CA : 2,000 2,800 2,800
FL : 4,000 2,000 2,300
GA : 69,000 56,000 80,000
LA : 2,500 1,500 3,000
MS : 5,500 1,800 5,000
NM : 29,000 34,000 29,000
NC 2/ : 300 100 1,100
OK : 1,000 800 1,500
sc : 600 400 1,900
TX : 34,000 40,000 30,000
US : 161,000 143,500 166,100
Pecans Native & Seedling :
: 9,000 1,000 4,000
AR : 900 150 700
FL : 3,000 1,600 1,900
GA : 16,000 9,000 15,000
LA : 11,500 4,500 12,000
MS : 3,000 400 2,000
NC 2/ : 400 300 1,400
OK : 8,000 4,200 13,500
sc : 400 100 1,100
TX : 21,000 20,000 35,000
US : 73,200 41,250 86,600
All Pecans :
AL : 22,000 5,000 13,000
AR : 1,000 250 1,200
CA : 2,000 2,800 2,800
FL : 7,000 3,600 4,200
GA : 85,000 65,000 95,000
LA : 14,000 6,000 15,000
WS. : 8,500 2,200 7,000
NM : 29,000 34,000 29,000
NC 2/ : 700 400 2,500
OK : 9,000 5,000 15,000
Sc : 1,000 500 3,000
TX : 55,000 60,000 65,000
Oth Sts 2/ 3/ : 16,300 20,250 18,300
US : 250,500 205,000 271,000
1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
3/ AZ, KS, MO, and TN. No breakdown between varieties available.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-47 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/ Net Ibs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA Desert
& AZ-64, CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples~90;
tangerines-CA & AZ-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including smal] quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Due to the severe freeze of December 1989, TX had no commercial production
for the 1990-91 season.

5/ The first forecast for CA grapefruit “Other Areas" will be as of April 1,
1992.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-45 NASS, USDA


Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
between September 23 and October 3 to gather information
on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat,
corn, soybeans, rice, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States
that usually account for at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly
selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted
within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop.
In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that
provide information to forecast the number of heads, ears, or bolls and their
weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop
a projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is
subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are re-visited each month until
crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm
operator has harvested the sample field another plot is sampled to obtain
current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 16,000 producers were
interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower
reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors,
reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data
were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to
previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits
their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics
Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare
the published October 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised;

instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout
the growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records
and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover, stocks, production, exports,
processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data
relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a
production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended
harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the

October 1 production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a
statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation
between the October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed
as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage
deviations for the 1971-1990 20-year period is computed. Then the square root
of the average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error."
Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the
current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that
factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those
influencing recent years.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-22 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Yield and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Production

0 35.0 25.0 6,600 6,650 2,750
AZ 90.9 94.6 97.1 10,722 9,266 6,605
AR > 44.0 35.0 22.0 52,800 49,000 20,460
CA : 77.9 77.8 81.8 52,605 48,165 36,160
co > 27.4 33.6 31.7 62,100 86,950 74,000
DE : 42.0 51.0 53.0 3,108 3,060 3,551
FL : 29.0 33.0 23.0 1,885 1,815 575
GA : 32.0 35.0 33.0 22,400 20,650 14,025
ID > 66.7 72.7 70.4 91,420 99,600 81,660
IL >: 59.0 48.0 32.0 105,020 88,800 44,800
IN : 59.0 52.0 40.0 51,920 50,440 28,800
IA : 47.0 45.0 34.0 3,290 3,375 1,700
KS : 24.0 40.0 33.0 213,600 472,000 363,000
KY : 50.0 40.0 27.0 22,500 20,000 10,800
LA : 31.0 33.0 20.0 10,850 12,870 3,800
MD >: 40.0 52.0 50.0 8,600 9,880 9,750
MI : 53.0 55.0 43.0 33,920 41,250 24,080
MN > «638.0 48.4 31.1 102,504 138,620 67,110
MS : 34.0 30.0 18.0 15,300 15,600 4,500
MO 47.0 38.0 32.0 86,950 76,000 48,000
MT > 27.7 28.1 36.4 145,030 145,865 159,507
NE : 27.0 38.0 32.0 55,350 85,500 67,200
NV : 80.0 70.0 82.5 1,200 980 660
NJ : 39.0 43.0 46.0 1,365 1,247 1,196
NM : 20.0 27.0 25.0 4,000 8,100 8,000
NY : 45.0 49.0 49.0 5,850 7,105 5,390
NC : 34.0 41.0 40.0 21,420 22,550 19,200
ND >: 23.5 35.3 31.0 242,320 385,220 303,670
OH 51.0 59.0 49.0 62,730 79,650 52,920
OK 27.0 32.0 28.0 153,900 201,600 140,000
OR 58.5 59.5 51.9 53,835 57,616 43,900
PA 37.0 50.0 44.0 7,955 10,500 7,700
Sc 41.0 38.0 31.0 17,835 14,440 8,525
SD 23.6 33.8 30.9 83,080 128,004 96,175
TN 42.0 36.0 24.0 18,900 17,640 7,680
1X 20.0 31.0 30.0 60,000 130,200 84,000
UT 33.6 40.7 38.0 5,950 7,170 5,807
VA 46.0 47.0 49.0 12,650 12,220 12,250
WA 48.7 60.5 45.9 110,610 150,080 98,600
WV 43.0 46.0 45.0 516 552 450
WI 51.8 52.5 48.2 9,320 10,085 6,118
wy 23.1 29.0 29.0 4,708 6,113 5,630
US 2 32.7 39.5 34.3 2,036,618 2,736,428 1,980,704
l/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-15 NASS, USDA


corn belt. Thirty-six percent of the crop was harvested in the 17 major
producing States, 23 percentage points ahead of last year and 17 points ahead
of the five-year average.

The corn crop was aided by good maturing and harvesting weather during

September. Growers in Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska were experiencing better
than expected yields in early harvested fields as drought damage was not as
severe as previously thought. Late planted fields in the Western Corn Belt
matured without suffering from frost damage. Actual average weight of grain
per ear from harvested survey samples was higher than last month's forecast.

Sorghum for Grain: Production of grain sorghum is forecast at 567 million

bushels, up 3 percent from September 1 but off 1 percent
from 1990. U.S. yields are forecast at 58.2 bushels per acre, up 2.0 bushels
from last forecast but 4.7 bushels per acre less than last year.

Yield forecasts are higher than last month in Arkansas and Missouri, and in
the Plains from Oklahoma through South Dakota. The most dramatic increase was
in Nebraska, where rains during the second week of September improved
prospects for a large portion of the crop. By September 29, 96 percent of
Nebraska's sorghum rated mature, and harvest was running 10 days ahead of
schedule.

September precipitation in Kansas was 35 to 80 percent below normal in all
areas except the southeastern district which was only 7 percent below normal.
Crop maturity has run ahead of the 5-year average. As of September

29, 20 percent of the crop had been harvested, mostly in the eastern third of
the State; average progress is 15 percent. Surface moisture is rated

90 percent short to very short. In Texas, wet conditions have delayed crop
maturity in the High Plains. About 75 percent of the crop has been harvested
Statewide.

Rice: U.S. rice production is forecast at 158 million cwt, up 2 percent from
both 1990 and 1989. The national average yield is forecast at

5,571 pounds per acre, up 8.0 pounds from September 1 and 64 pounds above the

1990 average.

Harvest was complete in Texas by October 1 and well along in Louisiana.
Harvest was in full swing in Arkansas and Mississippi and in the early stages
in California. National harvest progress, at 61 percent complete on September
29, was ahead of last year but behind the 5-year average. Harvest was notably
late in Mississippi, as the crop was planted late.

Blast was appearing more frequently in Arkansas as mature grain remained in
the field due to rain. Warmer weather in California during September
benefitted crop development, with grain heads reported to be well filled and
milling quality expected to be excellent. Louisiana's ratoon crop potential
was reported to be good, but Texas producers were less optimistic.

Soybeans: Production is forecast at 1.93 billion bushels in 1991, up

6 percent from the September 1991 forecast and fractionally above
1990. The average yield is estimated to be 33.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels
above the September 1 yield but 1.1 bushels below 1990. Harvested area, at

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-9 NASS, USDA


South Carolina's harvest was virtually completed by mid-September. This
year's harvest was ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Marketing
was active during September with demand strong and prices up from last year.

As of October 1, the Virginia crop was 88 percent harvested compared with last
year's 86 percent. Sales volume is ahead of the previous year. Good rains
most of the season, minimal insect damage, timely topping, and sucker control
have all contributed to a good crop. Some growers may have more tobacco than
quota.

Burley output is now expected to total 646 million pounds this year, 8 percent
above a year ago and up fractionally from September 1. The change from last
year reflects a 14 percent acreage increase which is moderated by an average
yield that is expected to be 118 pounds per acre less than in 1990. The small
increase from a month ago follows improved prospects in Indiana, Ohio, and
North Carolina. Average yield per acre is now expected to be 2,086 pounds
compared with 2,078 pounds on September 1.

In Kentucky, harvest is nearly complete. Tobacco is curing well since cooler
weather spread across the State. Some houseburn and mold were reported.
About one-quarter of the burley crop is ready for stripping. Color and
quality of stripped tobacco is good.

Most of the Tennessee crop is in the barn and stripping is expected to begin
soon. No major problems have occurred, but there were some minor losses due
to mold.

The dark fire-cured crop is forecast at 32.5 million pounds, down 7 percent
from last year but up fractionally from expectations a month ago. The

decrease from a year ago is the result of a 230 pound per acre lower average
yield, which is only being partly offset by a 4 percent increase in acreage.

Southern Maryland type tobacco is expected to total 17.0 million pounds,

1 percent less than the forecast a month ago but up 4 percent from 1990. With
the yield per acre off 9.0 pounds from a year ago, the larger production is
coming from a 5 percent increase in the area for harvest.

The dark air-cured tobacco crop of 9.07 million tons is up 19 percent from
1990. The outlook is unchanged from a month ago.

All cigar-type production is expected to total 32.0 million pounds, 4 percent
more than in 1990 and slightly above last month's expectations. Compared with
last year, filler is down slightly, binder is up 12 percent, and wrapper shows
a 16 percent decrease.

Sugarbeets: The sugarbeet production forecast of 27.4 million tons is
fractionally lower than both the September 1 forecast of
27.6 million tons and last year's total of 27.5 million tons. Production
prospects deteriorated from a month ago in four States but improved in two
States. Compared with a year ago, lower yields and increased acreage are
nearly offsetting. The area expected for harvest of 1.39 million acres, is up
1 percent from last year. Yields are forecasted to average 19.8 tons per acre
Nationally, compared with 20.0 tons in 1990. The States with largest declines
in production from last year are California and Michigan, while Minnesota and
North Dakota have the largest increases.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-15 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Yield and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91
: Yield Production
State :-----------------------~-----~------~-----------~~-~---~-----------+-------
1990 1/ 1990 1/

AL 30.0 35.0 25.0 6,600 6,650 2,750
-0 95.0 100.0 3,162 5,130 2,900
AR > «44.0 35.0 22.0 52,800 49,000 20,460
CA >: 77.0 76.0 80.0 43,890 42,560 32,800
CO: 26.0 33.0 31.0 57,200 84,150 71,300
DE > 42.0 51.0 53.0 3,108 3,060 3,551
FL : 29.0 33.0 23.0 1,885 1,815 575
GA: 32.0 35.0 33.0 22,400 20,650 14,025
1D : 70.0 75.0 70.0 56,700 69,000 49,000
IL > 59.0 48.0 32.0 105,020 88,800 44,800
IN: 59.0 52.0 40.0 51,920 50,440 28,800
IA : 47.0 45.0 34.0 3,290 3,375 1,700
KS > 24.0 40.0 33.0 213,600 472,000 363,000
KY : 50.0 40.0 27.0 22,500 20,000 10,800
LA: 31.0 33.0 20.0 10,850 12,870 3,800
MD: 40.0 52.0 50.0 8,600 9,880 9,750
MI : 53.0 55.0 43.0 33,920 41,250 24,080
MN : = 38.0 30.0 36.0 4,560 2,550 1,980
MS =: 34.0 30.0 18.0 15,300 15,600 4,500
MO : 47.0 38.0 32.0 86,950 76,000 48,000
MT : 36.0 35.0 40.0 54,000 87,500 72,000
NE : 27.0 38.0 32.0 55,350 85,500 67,200
NV : 80.0 70.0 90.0 480 420 360
NJ > 39.0 43.0 46.0 1,365 1,247 1,196
NM : 20.0 27.0 25.0 4,000 8,100 8,000
NY 45.0 49.0 49.0 5,850 7,105 5,390
NC 34.0 41.0 40.0 21,420 22,550 19,200
NO 29.0 27.0 33.0 2,320 4,320 2,970
OH 51.0 59.0 49.0 62,730 79,650 52,920
OK : 27.0 32.0 28.0 153,900 201,600 140,000
OR > 60.0 60.0 52.0 48,900 54,600 41,600
PA 37.0 50.0 44.0 7,955 10,500 7,700
Sc 41.0 38.0 31.0 17,835 14,440 8,525
SO 26.0 36.0 35.0 35,100 57,600 45,500
TN 42.0 36.0 24.0 18,900 17,640 7,680
TM 20.0 31.0 30.0 60,000 130,200 84,000
UT > «32.0 40.0 36.0 4,960 6,000 4,680
VA 46.0 47.0 49.0 12,650 12,220 12,250
WA 53.0 63.0 58.0 68,900 138,600 40,600
Ww 43.0 46.0 45.0 516 552 450
WI 53.0 53.0 49.0 9,010 9,805 5,880
WY 22.0 29.0 29.0 4,246 5,945 5,510
US 35.0 40.7 34.8 1,454,642 2,030,874 1,372,182
I/ Revised.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-17 NASS, USDA


Smal] Grains - Annual Summary: Area Planted and Harvested,
United States, 1989-91 (Metric Units)

Area Harvested

1991 1989 1990 1/ 1991
Hectares
Oats : 4,890,680 4,218,080 3,502,190 2,785,080 2,405,880 1,940,890
Barley : 3,692,800 3,326,960 3,618,330 3,364,190 3,046,910 3,404,660

All Wheat : 31,005,330 31,258,660 28,290,260 25,167,270 28,038,140 23,347,780
Winter : 22,294,780 23,046,290 20,659,020 16,798,280 20,194,440 15,943,170

Durum : 1,534,180 1,444,740 1,316,460 1,486,430 1,419,250 1,293,790
Oth Spring: 7,176,370 6,767,630 6,314,780 6,882,560 6,424,450 6,110,820
Rye : 815,050 657,620 676,240 195,870 151,760 160,260
1/ Revised.

Small Grains - Annual Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production,
United States, 1989-91 (Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare Production
Crop
Metric Tons

Oats 1.95 2.16 1.81 5,422,600 5,189,450 3,520,260
Barley 2.62 3.02 2.97 8,800,480 9,192,230 10,113,180
All Wheat 2.20 2.66 2.31 55,427,660 74,473,360 53,905,930
Winter : 2.36 2.74 2.34 39,588,870 55,271,330 37,344,670
Durum 1.69 2.35 2.19 2,510,060 3,332,000 2,829,250
Oth Spring: 1.94 2.47 2.25 13,328,730 15,870,030 13,732,010
Rye > 1.77 1.70 1.55 346,650 258,480 247,940
l/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-3 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed: Condition, by State and United States,
1990-91 and Average 1/

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-38 NASS, USDA


1990

Rice:

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested

Yield

Ind 1991

1990

Production

Ind 199 1989 1990 Ind 1991

-- 1,000 Acres -- -- Pounds ---
AR : 1,200.0 1,340.0 5,000 5,300 63,840 60,000 71,020
CA 3 385.0 315.0 7,600 7,800 32,390 29,260 24,570
LA : 545.0 515.0 4,860 4,900 21,488 26,469 25,235
MS 3 250.0 245.0 5,700 5,700 13,395 14,250 13,965
MO 1/: 80.0 98.0 4,700 4,900 4,108 3,760 4,802
TX : 353.0 318.0 6,000 5,700 19,266 21,180 18,126
US : 2,813.0 2,831.0 5,507 5,571 154,487 154,919 157,718
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Rice: Production by Class, United States, 1989-91
Long Grain Medium Grain : Short Grain All

1989 109,161 41,441 3,885 154, 487
1990 108,220 44,920 1,779 154,919
1991 1/ 112,434 44,486 798 157,718

1/ Indicated October 1, 1991, rice class forecasts are based on a five year
average of yield differences by class and current acreage estimates.

Crop Production
October 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board

A-26 NASS, USDA


Small Grains ~ Annual Summary: Area Planted and Harvested,
United States, 1989-91 (Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

1991
1,000 Acres
Oats : 12,085 10,423 8,654 6,882 5,945 4,796
Barley > 9,125 8,221 8,941 8,313 7,529 8,413
All Wheat : 76,615 77,241 69,906 62,189 69,283 57,693
Winter : 55,091 56,948 51,049 41,509 49,901 39,396
Durum : 3,791 3,570 3,253 3,673 3,507 3,197
Oth Spring : 17,733 16,723 15,604 17,007 15,875 15,100
Rye > 2,014 1,625 1,671 484 375 396

Oats 154.

3 60.1 50.6 373,587 357,524 242,526
Barley : 48.6 56.1 55.2 404,203 422,196 464,495
All Wheat : 32.7 39.5 34.3 2,036,618 2,736,428 1,980,704
Winter : 35.0 40.7 34.8 1,454,642 2,030,874 1,372,182
Ourum : 25.1 34.9 32.5 92,229 122,430 103,957
Oth Spring : 28.8 36.7 33.4 489,747 583,124 504,565
Rye : 28.2 27.1 24.6 13,647 10,176 9,761
l/_ Revised.

This report was approved on October 10, 1991, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural

Statistics Board.

Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Ann Veneman Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1991 A-2 NASS, USDA


A decline in Montana's harvested acreage from the September estimate was the
major reason for the decrease from the September 1 production forecast.

All Wheat: All wheat production for 1991 is estimated at 1.98 billion

bushels, off 2 percent from September 1 and down 28 percent from
1990. Yields averaged 34.3 bushels per acre, down 0.3 and 5.2 bushels per
acre from September I and last year, respectively. Area harvested for grain
is 57.7 million acres, down 17 percent from 1990.

U.S. ALL WHEAT PRODUCTION
1982-1991

0 BILLION BUSHELS

3.00] 976 274
2.59

2.60 2.42 2.42

2.09 2.11 2.04

1.98
2.00 1.81

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Winter Wheat: Production of winter wheat for 1991 is estimated at

1.37 billion bushels, up slightly from the August forecast but
down 32 percent from 1990. This is the smallest production estimate since
1978. The U.S. average yield is 34.8 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from
August 1 but 5.9 bushels per acre less than last year. Harvested area is
estimated at 39.4 million acres, down fractionally from August 1 and down
21 percent from 1990.

Final harvest of the 1991 crop was essentially completed by September

22. With few exceptions, State average yields were down from 1990, especially
in the major Soft Red Winter Wheat States where diseases fostered by wet
conditions drastically reduced the crop.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-2 NASS, USDA


All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Harvested Yield Production
State $---2 nn non nn nn nnn nn nnn nn nnn nnn nn nnn nn nnn nea
1990 :Ind 1991: 1989 1990 : Ind 1991
--- Tons ---
1.50 2.40
3.90 4.50
1.75 2.20
2.30 2.50
1.50 1.60
2.20 1.90
2.30 2.30
2.30 3.00
2.00 3.00
2.00 2.10
2.40 2.00
2.20 1.90
2.40 2.10
1.80 1.50
2.00 2.00
2.20 2.30
ME 1/ 200 203. «1.85 ~=—-1.80
MD 1/ 145 140 2.55 2.00
MA I/ : 74 75 2.05 1.90
MI : 200 250 2.30 2.30
MN : 800 800 1.80 2.00
MS : 575 700 1.80 2.50
MO : 3,100 3,200 1.75 1.70
MT : 800 1,000 1.40 1.60
NE : 2,350 2,050 1.10 1.15
Was: 250 240 1.50 1.20
NH T/ : 61 62 2.00 1.90
NO I/: 84 86 2.00 1.90
NM 1/: 70 70 1.80 1.80
NY : 1,120 1,190 1.95 2.00
NC 440 480 2.10 2.20
NO 2,100 1,900 1.05 1.40
OH 700 750 2.60 2.10
OK 1,700 1,900 1.50 1.70
OR 600 650 1.70 1.80
PA 1,090 1,110 2.10 1.70
RI 1/ 5 6 2.30 2.00
SC 240 260 1.90 2.40
SD 2,100 2,150 1.20 1.20
TMN 1,430 1,580 2.10 2.30 3,220 3,003 3,634
1X 3,800 4,000 2.00 2.50 9,120 7,600 10,000
UT 1/ 140 140 2.00 2.10 247 280 294
VT 1/ 260 250 2.00 1.80 507 520 450
VA 1,020 1,040 2.00 2.00 1,995 2,040 2,080
WA 320 315 2.50 2.70 750 800 851
WV 500 510 1.90 1.60 833 950 816
WI 400 350 1.80 2.80 950 720 980
WY 590 730 1.20 1.40 580 708 1,022
US 36,156 37,289 1.75 1.91 68,142 63,430 71,081

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-34 NASS, USDA



Grapes: Production by Type,

State,

and United States, 1989-91

Production

Type and State

1989

Total 1/

1990

Ind
1991

Grapes Table Type
CA
Grapes Wine Type

cA : 2,

Grapes Raisin Type 2/

cA : 2,

All Grapes
AZ 3.
AR 3/

GA
MI
MO
NY
NC
OH
OR
PA
sc
WA

fw WWwlwiw kw ftw
SN SSN NS

cA : 5,

5,

630,000
190,000
570,000

26,500
6,500
390,000
2,800
43,000
3,600
152,000
1,700
8,000
7,450
60,000
300
229,000

930,850

Tons
645,000
2,195,000
2,345,000

26,000
5,100
5,185,000
2,900
46,000
1,300
144,000
1,500
7,700
7,000
53,000
400
180,000

5,659,900

580,000
2,300,000
1,950,000

25,000
8,300
4,830,000
3,200
46,000
2,700
190,000
1,800
7,900
9,500
75,000
400
187,000

5,386,800

/
1990-120.

/ Fresh basis.

/

Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons): 1989-800;

Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Prunes and Plums: Production by State and 4 State Total, 1989-91

Production

State
1989
ID 6,500
MI 13,000
OR 14,000
WA 13,500
Total 47,000

1/ Includes unharvested production and harvested not sold (tons):

1989 - 3,150; 1990 - 4,600.

Crop Production
October 1991

A-43

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


“Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production,
by Type, State, and United States, 1989-91

Production

: : Ind :
: 1990 : 1991 :

1 : - 1,000-Acres ~ --- Pounds --
Oi : “.
KS H 49 85 1,000 91,180 49,000
MN : 69 209 =1,650 61,600 113,850
ND : 940. 1,440 1,140 931,200 1,071,600
SD : 280. 430 1,350 235,200 378,000
TX : a5 111,200 37,120 6,000
US : 1,343 2,175 1,205 1,356,300 1,618,450
Non-Oi1:
KS : 24 30 =1,370 27,160 32,880
MN : 69 79° 1,625 33,600 112,125
ND : 385° 225 1,220 303,600 469,700
sD : 15 10 1,450 9,100 21,750
TX : 15 111,300 30,000 19,500
US: 508 355 1,291 403,460 655,955
AN:
KS : 73 115 1,122 1,200 118,340 81,880 138,000
MN 2 138 288 1,638 1,750 95,200 225,975 504,000
ND : 1,325 1,665 1,163 1,250 1,234,800 1,541,300 2,081,250
sD > 295 440 1,355 1,250 244,300 399,750 550,000
TX : 20 22 1,275 1,350 67,120 25,500 29,700
US : 1,851 2,530 1,229 1,306 1,759,760 2,274,405 3,302,950
Crop. Production < - Agricultural Statistics Board

October:,1991 A-29 NASS, USDA


Barley: Yield and Production,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Production

1990 1/ 1991
1,000 Bushels -------
1,575 2,400
13,340 9,440
12,000 10,400
1,890 2,516
56,160 59,250
924 759
1,020 1,210
4,284 4,992
2,580 1,419
50,400 43,750
56,580 85,800
880 1,215
675 360
372 488
1,590 1,645
129,850 138,670
697 370
9,100 12,600
4,140 4,200
676 279
24,500 17,940
608 320
8,505 7,885
5,280 5,695
22,620 37,050
2,700 3,312

9,250 10,530

422,196 464,495

1/ Revised.
2/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-13 NASS, USDA


California's production, at 4.83 million tons, is up 2 percent from last month
but down 7 percent from the 1990 production. The California raisin variety
grape forecast is unchanged from last month, at 1.95 million tons, 17 percent
below the 1990 production level. Harvest continued throughout September.
Warm, dry weather has been excellent for raisin drying.

The California wine variety forecast of 2.30 million tons is up 5 percent from
both September 1 and last year. Harvest continues in the Napa Valley and is
virtually complete in the Central Valley. Quality is reported to be good.

The California table variety grape forecast is 580,000 tons, up 2 percent from
September 1 but down 10 percent from the 1990 crop. Harvest continued during
September on late maturing varieties. Volume was reduced this year by an
early July heat wave that hit the State.

The Washington all grape forecast remains at 187,000 tons. If realized, this
year's crop would be 4 percent higher than the 1990 crop. Harvest is active
with the crop maturing 7 to 10 days later than normal because of cool spring
weather.

The New York grape forecast is 190,000 tons, up 6 percent from last month and
up 32 percent from last year. Late summer rainfall has increased berry size.
Sugar content of the berries has been high.

Michigan's forecast of 46,000 tons is unchanged from last month and last year.
Harvest is complete with high quality and excellent sugar content reported.

The Pennsylvania forecast remains at 75,000 tons, up 42 percent from the
1990 crop. Berries were of good quality and had high sugar content. Dry
conditions resulted in one of the earliest harvest ever.

Prunes and Plums: Production in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington is
forecast at 26,000 tons, 3 percent less than the

September 1 forecast and 46 percent less than last year's crop. Harvest is

complete in Idaho. The full extent of last winter's cold weather is now

evident. In Michigan, harvest is about three weeks ahead of normal. The crop

is picking out slightly higher than expected with good quality but variable

fruit size. Harvest is completed in Washington.

Oranges: The initial production forecast of U.S. all oranges for the 1991-92

season is 8.19 million tons, 4 percent higher than last season and
6 percent more than the 1989-90 crop. The forecast for al] Florida oranges is
136 million boxes, 10 percent less than last season's crop but 23 percent more
than the 1989-90 freeze-damaged crop. Production of Florida early and
mid-season varieties, at 80.0 million boxes, is 9 percent less than last
season but 17 percent greater than the 1989-90 crop. Florida Valencia
production is expected to total 56.0 million boxes, 12 percent less than last
season's crop but 33 percent above 1989-90 production.

California's 1991-92 all orange crop forecast at 53.0 million boxes, is

98 percent higher than last season but 26 percent less than the 1989-90
production. Last season's production was reduced by a severe freeze in
December 1990. The Navel crop for California is expected to total

29.0 million boxes, 84 percent higher than 1990-91 but 35 percent less than

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-17 NASS, USDA


Other Spring Wheat: Other spring wheat production in 1991 is estimated at
505 million bushels, 4 percent less than the September

1 forecast and down 13 percent from 1990's record high production level.

Yield decreases in the major producing States since September 1, along with

acreage reductions in Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota, caused most of the

production decline. The U.S. average yield is 33.4 bushels per acre,

1.1 bushels less than the last forecast and 3.3 bushels per acre less than

last year.

Hail damage in Montana's major producing area led to an acreage decline; the
yield estimate is a new record high average. Open weather through August
allowed North Dakota's harvest to be finished by September 1. South Dakota's
harvest was completed on schedule, despite wet harvest conditions in the
northeast which caused lower yields and poor quality wheat.

Durum Wheat: Production of durum wheat in 1991 totaled 104 million bushels,
down 9 percent from September 1 and 15 percent less than in

1990. The average yield is estimated at 32.5 bushels per acre, down

1.9 bushels per acre from the September 1 forecast and down 2.4 bushels per

acre from last season. Harvested area is 3.20 million acres, down 9 percent

from last year.

North Dakota's harvest was completed in early September, nearly a week ahead
of average. Dry conditions from late July through August hurt yield
potential.

Rye: The 1991 rye production is estimated at 9.76 million bushels, down

4 percent from last year. This is the lowest production on record. The
U.S. average yield is 24.6 bushels per acre, down 2.5 bushels per acre from
1990 and equals 1980's average yield as the lowest since 1977. Area harvested
is 396,000 acres, up 6 percent from the previous year. Planted acres are
estimated to total 1.67 million, up 3 percent from a year ago.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-3 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

y
4 iH October 5, 1991
(he) t {7\ Movenate: Next Chart Oct 22
o 1 : ¢4
! Pa Y > iopenate,
EXTREMERTY Severe: o y Moist MOIST
7. eS
i y © ~yrosmass VV ok ee 4) aopenATeQ)
oy ~ tlen ae - S
2 ' XTREM!
Tneue \oZ Co PQ -4a
A ! 4 eet seven eo
SEVERE 7 4 / ? SEVERE!
~ oa J EXTREME’ \\ ( 4 »
, uN | ‘ 1 weosiaa GEA
H "WN U ‘SEVERE / 7
1) VL SLFS
a om MoIst,
*“ &
moist
MOIS:
‘MoiaT r)

NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY posed on pratesinary report

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and

reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 B-5 NASS, USDA



Winter Wheat: Area Planted and Harvested,
by State and United States, 1989-91

Area Planted 1/ Area Harvested

1,000 Acres
AL : 300 280 170 220 190 110
AZ H 35 55 30 34 54 29
AR 3 1,300 1,500 1,100 1,200 1,400 930
CA : 625 620 450 570 560 410
co : 2,700 2,700 2,600 2,200 2,550 2,300
DE : 80 65 70 74 60 67
FL : 80 65 50 65 55 25
GA : 800 650 500 700 590 425
ID : 880 960 870 810 920 700
IL : 1,850 2,050 1,650 1,780 1,850 1,400
IN : 940 1,050 850 880 970 720
IA : 80 80 75 70 75 50
KS H 12,400 12,400 11,800 8,900 11,800 11,000
KY : 630 700 640 450 500 400
LA : 390 440 300 350 390 190
MD : 230 200 205 215 190 195
MI : 660 770 570 640 750 560
MN : 135 130 60 120 85 55
MS : 525 600 350 450 520 250
MO : 1,970 2,150 1,650 1,850 2,000 1,500
MT : 2,500 2,700 2,350 1,500 2,500 1,800
NE : 2,550 2,450 2,350 2,050 2,250 2,100
NV : 7 7 6 6 6 4
No : 43 36 35 35 29 26
NM : 550 520 550 200 300 320
NY H 135 150 115 130 145 110
NC : 680 600 550 630 550 480
ND : 100 250 100 80 160 90
OH : 1,260 1,400 1,150 1,230 1,350 1,080
OK : 7,300 7,500 7,400 5,700 6,300 5,000
OR : 840 950 850 815 910 800
PA : 220 215 180 215 210 175
Sc : 460 400 300 435 380 275
SD : 1,600 1,850 1,500 1,350 1,600 1,300
TMN : 540 580 440 450 490 320
TX : 6,700 6,700 6,200 3,000 4,200 2,800
UT : 165 155 140 155 150 130
VA : 300 290 280 275 260 250
WA : 2,100 2,300 2,200 1,300 2,200 700
Ww : 16 15 13 12 12 10
WI : 200 195 140 170 185 120

WY : 215 220 210 193 205 190

1/ Includes area planted in preceding fall.
2/ Revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1991 A-16 NASS, USDA