Cr Pr 2-2 (4-04)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released April 8, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Virtually Unchanged from March

The U.S. all orange April 1 forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.1 million tons, down less than 1 percent from

the March 1 forecast but 14 percent above last season's final revised utilization. Florida's all orange forecast,

at 245 million boxes (11.0 million tons), is down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but 21 percent

above the previous season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 126 million boxes

(5.67 million tons), down 1 percent from last month but 13 percent above the previous season. Harvest of the

early and midseason varieties is complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is 119 million boxes (5.36 million

tons), unchanged from the March forecast but 31 percent above last season's final utilization. Citrus trees in

Florida groves are in excellent condition with irrigation being used extensively as trees reached peak bloom in

mid to late March.

California's all orange forecast, at 54.0 million boxes (2.03 million tons), is unchanged from the previous

forecast but 12 percent below the previous season’s revised utilization. Harvesting of navel oranges was

active througout March. Navel and Valencia oranges are unchanged at 39.0 million boxes (1.46 million tons),

and 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), respectively. Harvesting of the Valencia crop is well underway with

no major problems reported. However, bearing acreage reductions continue in both the Central Valley and

southern areas. Overall quality of the harvested crop is good in both districts. Much of the Central Valley

Valencia crop is being packed for export at this point. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.68 million boxes

(72,000 tons), up 10 percent from the January 1 forecast and 7 percent more than last season's utilized

production. Harvest is well underway with excellent fruit quality and size reported. Arizona's all orange

utilization is forecast at 540,000 boxes (21,000 tons), an increase of 15 percent from both the previous

forecast and the 2002-03 season. Small size fruit with good quality are being reported.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is increased from 1.53 to 1.54 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.45 gallons per box. The Valencia

portion is raised to 1.64 gallons per box from 1.62 with processors reporting excellent Valencia internal

qualities. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of

the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on April 8, 2004.

Secretary of

Agriculture

Ann M. Veneman

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................ 4

Crop Comments ....................................................................... 14

Crop Summary ......................................................................... 6

Information Contacts ................................................................... 18

Papayas ............................................................................... 5

Potatoes .............................................................................. 5

Reliability ............................................................................ 17

Weather Maps ........................................................................ 12

Weather Summary ..................................................................... 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 4 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted April 1, 2004 1 2

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

1,000 Boxes 3 1,000 Boxes 3 1,000 Boxes 3 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 4

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 6

 CA 6

 FL 7

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

270

32,000

128,000

1,530

161,800

250

19,500

102,000

210

121,960

520

51,500

230,000

1,740

283,760

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

5,900

46,700

5,900

58,660

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

18,300

21,100

2,150

200

41,000

112,000

1,350

154,550

270

20,500

91,000

220

111,990

470

61,500

203,000

1,570

266,540

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,500

5,500

8,430

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

260

39,000

126,000

1,450

166,710

280

15,000

119,000

230

134,510

540

54,000

245,000

1,680

301,220

1,400

16,000

24,000

100

5,400

40,000

5,400

50,900

600

2,400

6,300

9,300

3,000

23,000

26,000

1,000

10

1,200

5,760

65

7,035

9

731

4,590

9

5,339

19

1,931

10,350

74

12,374

70

803

1,182

5

198

1,985

236

2,424

23

83

314

420

106

695

801

97

8

1,538

5,040

57

6,643

10

769

4,095

9

4,883

18

2,307

9,135

66

11,526

59

689

956

4

188

1,645

226

2,063

16

94

261

371

114

912

1,026

106

10

1,463

5,670

62

7,205

11

563

5,355

10

5,939

21

2,026

11,025

72

13,144

63

680

1,020

3

181

1,700

216

2,100

23

90

299

412

114

874

988

45

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 2002-03 Revised. 3 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors. 7 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo, Sunburst,

and Honey varieties only.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 5 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2002-2004

Seasonal

Group

and

State

Area

Yield Production

Planted Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

Summer 1

 AL

 CA

 CO

 DE

 IL

 KS

 MD

 MO

 NJ

 NM

 TX

 VA

 Total

8.5

6.1

14.6

7.6

19.0

30.0

21.5

8.5

19.0

13.0

88.6

3.0

7.5

6.8

3.7

6.5

2.8

4.7

8.0

2.8

1.9

9.0

7.0

63.7

8.5

5.7

14.2

7.0

17.5

22.8

16.2

6.6

16.0

11.0

74.3

8.5

5.8

14.3

7.6

19.0

28.6

20.3

8.3

17.0

12.5

84.7

1.8

7.2

6.7

3.6

6.1

2.7

4.6

7.1

2.7

1.9

8.4

6.2

59.0

8.5

5.5

14.0

7.0

17.5

22.5

16.0

6.5

15.0

10.5

72.5

310

240

282

275

440

280

280

280

175

240

288

185

385

380

240

360

380

240

265

250

280

420

250

322

250

250

250

280

390

249

265

210

190

230

271

2,430

1,776

4,206

2,106

7,695

7,381

5,775

1,606

3,230

2,040

22,452

513

2,628

2,268

1,000

1,984

986

1,100

1,296

715

736

3,320

1,386

17,932

2,635

1,392

4,027

2,090

8,360

8,008

5,684

2,324

2,975

3,000

24,433

333

2,772

2,546

864

2,196

1,026

1,104

1,882

675

532

3,528

1,550

19,008

2,125

1,375

3,500

1,960

6,825

5,605

4,240

1,365

2,850

2,415

19,655

 1 2003 revised.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2003 2004

2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Feb

Mar

2,255

2,260

2,200

2,110

1,510

1,515

1,345

1,165

3,735

4,215

2,815

2,750

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,299.0

78,736.0

4,601.0

730.0

3,022.0

1,368.0

9,420.0

61,700.0

44,945.0

2,915.0

13,840.0

1,082.0

595.0

110.0

1,344.0

1.3

221.0

73,404.0

2,344.0

13,483.1

13,304.0

179.1

1,365.4

21.1

1,406.1

337.5

246.0

1,274.5

14.6

88.6

63.7

1,107.6

95.6

4,683.0

79,004.0

4,312.0

3,260.0

8,600.0

59,462.0

43,372.0

2,757.0

13,333.0

965.0

1,366.0

75,411.0

2,086.0

14,401.6

14,175.0

226.6

1,358.6

1,333.0

14.2

74.3

98.3

4,688.0

71,139.0

6,528.0

63,342.0

23,578.0

39,764.0

2,224.0

620.0

2,997.0

339.0

7,798.0

343.0

52,839.0

36,541.0

2,869.0

13,429.0

1,068.0

583.0

107.0

1,312.0

1.2

212.0

72,321.0

2,197.0

12,058.0

11,880.0

178.0

1,347.9

997.8

416.2

15.6

1,346.9

328.5

237.0

5.9

0.2

28.7

78.2

1,250.0

14.3

84.7

59.0

1,092.0

15.8

92.4

0.4

63,731.0

2,067.0

414.6

14.0

72.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.9

142.2

16.2

2.48

3.24

2.03

65.0

18.5

6,645

27.3

52.7

10.4

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.7

1,416

17.9

723

3,159

949

1,286

33.4

1,213

725

719

1,157

22.7

34.6

1,997

1,115

1,672

1,584

1,030

1,470

37,500

1,903

89

367

282

288

322

377

113

172

250

271

276,087

10,113,887

105,864

157,123

76,307

80,816

144,649

11,450

199,157

9,254

411,237

3,552

2,336,526

1,707,069

96,637

532,820

1,512,250

6,694.0

10,426

77,372

4,144,150

1,139

272,555

2,417,565

2,665,226

18,224.0

17,795.0

429.0

30,605

34,503

831,204

174

22,515

5,202

2,442

673

8,700

6,000

54,565.1

6,924

458,854

4,027

24,433

19,008

411,386

1,778

15,921

5,000

3,500

19,655

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,424

1

801

12,374

97

420

70

8,525.4

90.0

19,500.0

7,339.0

103.0

45,900.0

2,574.9

868.5

172.0

15.7

1,090,000

19.5

172,900

303,000

282.0

1,475

2,063

1,026

11,526

106

371

59

9,014.6

97.9

22,000.0

6,477.9

118.0

43,000.0

2,523.1

923.1

176.0

16.9

1,020,000

35.0

262,200

116,000

325.0

1,239

2,100

988

13,144

45

412

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,144,450

31,863,670

1,861,980

295,420

1,222,970

553,620

3,812,180

24,969,370

18,188,790

1,179,670

5,600,910

437,870

240,790

44,520

543,900

530

89,440

29,705,860

948,590

5,456,480

5,384,000

72,480

552,560

8,540

569,030

136,580

99,550

515,780

5,910

35,860

25,780

448,230

38,690

1,895,160

31,972,130

1,745,020

1,319,290

3,480,330

24,063,680

17,552,210

1,115,730

5,395,730

390,530

552,810

30,518,080

844,180

5,828,180

5,736,480

91,700

549,810

539,450

5,750

30,070

39,780

1,897,190

28,789,240

2,641,820

25,633,870

9,541,780

16,092,090

900,030

250,910

1,212,860

137,190

3,155,770

138,810

21,383,410

14,787,780

1,161,060

5,434,580

432,210

235,930

43,300

530,950

490

85,790

29,267,590

889,100

4,879,750

4,807,720

72,030

545,480

403,800

168,440

6,310

545,080

132,940

95,910

2,390

60

11,600

31,650

505,860

5,790

34,280

23,880

441,920

6,390

37,390

170

25,791,300

836,490

167,760

5,670

29,340

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.17

8.92

36.35

5.56

7.25

4.56

2.33

1.03

7.45

1.71

3.31

23.21

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.67

1.59

1.12

0.81

3.54

1.06

1.44

2.25

1.36

0.81

0.81

1.30

50.90

77.52

2.24

1.25

1.87

1.77

1.15

1.65

42.03

2.13

0.10

41.14

31.56

32.33

36.11

42.23

0.13

19.31

28.02

30.39

6,011,080

256,904,560

96,038,210

142,539,590

69,224,550

73,315,040

2,099,570

259,680

9,033,610

235,060

10,445,900

3,222,320

63,589,820

46,458,800

2,630,030

14,500,980

685,950

6,072,690

264,830

35,100

1,879,750

520

123,630

65,795,340

1,208,930

3,967,810

3,874,400

93,400

27,764,390

31,300,600

377,030

7,890

1,021,260

235,960

110,770

30,530

3,950

2,720

24,750

3,140

20,813,270

182,660

1,108,260

862,190

18,660,160

810

722,160

2,270

158,760

891,540

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2002 2003 2004

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,199,020

910

726,650

11,225,500

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,867,060

81,680

8,850

6,657,830

93,440

20,820

1,167,960

787,840

156,040

14,200

494,420

17,690

78,430

137,440

255,830

7,370

1,871,520

930,770

10,456,210

96,160

336,570

53,520

4,088,950

88,800

9,980

5,876,650

107,050

19,500

1,144,460

837,380

159,660

15,330

462,660

31,750

118,930

52,620

294,840

6,190

1,905,090

896,300

11,924,040

40,820

373,760

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 12 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 13 NASS, USDA

March Weather Summary

The month opened on a cool, stormy note in the West, but starting March 7 most areas from the Rockies

westward endured dry weather and record-high temperatures. The warmth promoted spring fieldwork and

winter grain development, but caused premature melting of high-elevation Western snow packs. Very warm

weather also prevailed on the Plains, accompanied by mostly dry weather from eastern Colorado and

northwestern Kansas northward into Montana. In contrast, showery weather aided pastures and winter grains

across the southern and eastern Plains. Late in the month, however, heavy rain and melting snow caused

lowland flooding in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Meanwhile, generally wet weather in

the Corn Belt slowed fieldwork but boosted soil moisture reserves in preparation for spring planting. Rain

and snow eased long-term precipitation deficits across the upper Midwest and maintained adequate to locally

excessive soil moisture for winter wheat across the southern and eastern Corn Belt. Farther south, an

intensifying, six-month dry spell affected areas from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to the southern

Atlantic States. By month’s end, dry conditions increased stress on Southeastern pastures, winter grains, and

emerging summer crops. In contrast, heavy rainfall eased irrigation demands in the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Monthly temperatures generally averaged 4 to 8 degrees F above normal in the upper Midwest and across the

western half of the Nation. Readings were as much as 10 degrees F above normal in parts of California and

the Desert Southwest. Temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees F above normal in most locations from the

Mississippi River to the Appalachians, but were as much as 2 degrees F below normal along the Atlantic

Seaboard. Brief Eastern warm spells during the first week of March and again toward month’s end prevented

more significant negative temperature departures along the Atlantic Coast.

March Crop Summary

Above-normal temperatures prevailed across the Nation, while precipitation was concentrated in the eastern

half of the Nation.

Over 4 inches of rain fell across most of the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley. Most of this precipitation fell toward

the beginning and end of the month, with mostly dry conditions prevailing around mid-month. Though

temperatures were above normal across the region, the highest temperatures were in the western portion of the

region. The rainfall was beneficial for winter wheat, but field preparation for summer crops was hampered by

wet conditions.

After a brief continuation of February’s wet weather early in the month, the Southeast and Mississippi Delta

remained mostly dry during the rest of March. Temperatures were above normal across most of the region,

except for Florida’s Gulf Coast, where temperatures averaged slightly below normal. However, temperatures

were not low enough to damage citrus crops, which had reached full bloom by the end of the month. Dry

soils across the Southeast delayed row crop planting.

Across the Great Plains, temperatures were well above normal through most of the month. Precipitation was

scarce in the northern and central parts of the region, causing winter wheat condition to deteriorate. In the

southern part of the region, moderate to heavy rainfall early in the month helped small grains recover from

moisture stress earlier in the winter.

Precipitation was light to moderate in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Coast States, with the highest totals

in coastal areas. Light snow fell across parts of the region toward mid-month but melted quickly. Despite

cold weather during that period, temperatures averaged slightly above normal across the region.

After cold weather early in the month, temperatures well above normal prevailed across the Rocky Mountains

through the end of the month. Precipitation was widely scattered across the region. A few areas received

over 2 inches of rain, but most of the region remained dry.

In the Pacific Northwest, precipitation was heavy in coastal areas, but lighter in the crop-producing areas

farther inland, where most areas received 1 to 2 inches. Winter wheat condition improved with beneficial

rains in the first and last weeks of the month. Temperatures were below normal during the first week, but

remained above normal thereafter.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 14 NASS, USDA

Conditions in the Great Basin were very mild and dry, with monthly average temperatures ranging from 6 to

10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Precipitation was very light and limited to the early part of the month. 

Similar conditions prevailed across the Southwest, although locally heavy showers temporarily relieved

drought conditions in some areas.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2003-04 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.10 million tons, up 1 percent from the

March 1 forecast and 2 percent above the previous season. Florida’s grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at

40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 3 percent above last season’s final utilization. If realized, this will

be the third smallest crop in the past 20 seasons. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 16.0 million

boxes (680,000 tons) but 1 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 24.0 million boxes

(1.02 million tons), remains unchanged but 7 percent above last season’s final utilization. About 80 percent of

Florida’s grapefruit crop has been picked. California's grapefruit forecast, at 5.40 million boxes

(181,000 tons), is up 4 percent from the previous forecast but 4 percent less than last season's final utilization. 

Exterior color is fair with good interior quality. Texture is smooth for all sizes. Flavor and eating quality are

excellent. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 5.40 million boxes (216,000 tons), 2 percent above the previous

forecast but 4 percent lower than last season. Arizona's grapefruit forecast remains unchanged from January

at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons) but is 23 percent less than last season's final utilization. Decreasing demand

and land development are contributing factors to the production decline when compared to the previous

season. Good size and quality are expected.

Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 412,000 tons, up 4 percent from the March 1

forecast and 11 percent above last season’s final utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop, at

6.30 million boxes (299,000 tons), is up 7 percent from last month and 15 percent above last season’s

utilization. Harvest of the early tangerine varieties is complete while the late season Honey variety harvest

continued with good demand reported. 

California's forecast of tangerine production at 2.40 million boxes (90,000 tons), is down 4 percent from both

the January 1 forecast and last season's utilized production. Fruit quality is reported as very good to excellent.

The Arizona tangerine forecast of 600,000 boxes (23,000 tons) is unchanged from the previous forecast but

40 percent above last season. Fruit size is small with good quality expected.

Lemons: The 2003-04 U.S. lemon crop is 988,000 tons, down 1 percent from the January 1 forecast and

4 percent below last season’s final utilization. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes

(874,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 4 percent below the 2002-03 season. Harvest is

progressing well in the South Coastal area, while coming to an end in the Central Valley and desert region. 

Reported quality is excellent. Arizona’s 2003-04 lemon forecast, at 3.00 million boxes (114,000 tons), is

down 6 percent from the previous forecast but unchanged from the previous season. Small size fruit of good

quality are being reported.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2003-04 tangelo forecast is final at 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), unchanged from

March but 57 percent less than last season’s utilized production. This is the smallest crop since the

1964-65 season. 

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged

from March but 8 percent above last season’s final utilization. If attained, the crop will be the third smallest

since the freeze affected 1989-90 season. Fruit droppage and size are below average.

Florida Citrus: March weather in the citrus growing areas was mostly dry with cool nighttime temperatures

and moderate to warm days. Several cold fronts passed through the State bringing overnight temperatures

into the upper 30's in some northern locations. Daytime highs reached the mid 80's. The cold fronts brought

very little rainfall with virtually none reported the first two weeks of the month. Rainfall during the third

week brought up to two inches in some upper interior areas. Weather during the last month was cloudy and

windy with very light amounts of coastal showers reported. Citrus trees in all areas are in excellent condition

following the favorable weather of the past several months. By mid-month, lower interior and coastal area

trees were in full bloom, followed by those in the upper interior area later in the month. 

Early-midseason harvest is mostly over as the season nears completion. Valencia oranges are beginning to be

harvested with good demand reported for fresh shipments. Weekly harvest by the last of the month was up to
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 15 NASS, USDA

7 million boxes. Grapefruit harvest for fresh shipments increased during the month with harvest for

processing also heavy. Honey tangerine harvest is strong with good demand reported. Temple harvest is

complete for the season.

Texas Citrus: Harvest is well underway for the 2003-04 season for most crops. Water supply in the Rio

Grande Valley is abundant. Fruit quality and size are excellent. Some problems are being reported with Rust

Mite and Blackfly.

California Citrus: Irrigation, pruning, soil amendment, and foliar nutrient applications were underway in

some harvested citrus orchards. Navel orange harvesting was ongoing throughout the month, though quality

continued to deteriorate due to the warm weather. Early variety Valencia oranges were harvested in some

areas of the Central Valley. Rio Red grapefruit were harvested in the desert areas, while the Pummelo harvest

neared completion in the Central Valley. Tangelos were picked and packed. Lemon harvest continued in the

South Coastal region throughout March, and was virtually complete in the Central Valley.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Treatments to control diseases, weeds, and insect pests continued in

many tree fruit orchards, along with irrigation and cultivation. Weather conditions during March were

excellent for pollination as California experienced many days of record high temperatures. By mid-month,

late stone fruit orchards were still in bloom, but most were well into the petal fall stage and leafing out. By

month’s end, the bloom period had ended in most stone fruit orchards. The fruit set for early nectarine and

peach varieties appears to be good. Apple, cherry, and pear orchards in the Central Valley were blooming by

the end of March. Late pruning of cherry trees continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Rainfall during the last

week of March slowed orchard work in some parts of the Sacramento Valley. Strawberries were blooming,

with berries beginning to form in many fields by month’s end. Some strawberry stands opened in Kern

County. Prune orchards were treated for weeds. Swelling buds and newly opened green shoots appeared in

many grape vineyards as vines responded to the warm, sunny weather. Cane training was ongoing in a few

grape vineyards but pruning and tying were essentially completed for the season. Most almond orchards were

fully leafed and developing well by month’s end. Walnut and pistachio orchards were breaking dormancy. 

Walnut trees were pruned and treated for blight. Buds began to appear on pistachio trees.

Winter Potatoes: The 2004 U.S. winter potato crop in California and Florida combined is forecast at

3.50 million cwt, 9 percent below the January forecast and 13 percent less than last year. Area for harvest, at

14,000 acres, is unchanged from January but down 2 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 250 cwt

per acre is down 24 cwt from January and 32 cwt below a year ago.

California’s average yield is forecast at 250 cwt per acre, 40 cwt per acre below the January forecast. This

reduced yield was caused by a freeze during the growing season in the Imperial Valley. The Florida forecast

remains unchanged from January. Florida’s Southern Peninsula producers have encountered no significant

problems during harvest.

Spring Potatoes: Spring production in 2004 is forecast at 19.7 million cwt, down 20 percent from last year. 

Area for harvest is estimated at 72,500 acres, 14 percent below 2003. The average yield is forecast at 271 cwt

per acre, down 17 cwt from a year ago.

Spring potato production in Florida is forecast at 5.61 million cwt, down 30 percent from a year ago. Total

spring harvested acreage decreased 21 percent and average yield is 31 cwt per acre below last year. Both

planted and harvested acreage declined due to a reduction in contracted acres. Mild conditions in February

and March helped crop development although heavy showers in March reduced yield potential in some areas. 

North Carolina’s spring potato crop is forecast at 2.85 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year. Area for

harvest is expected to be down 12 percent from a year ago, due in part to a reduction in contracts for

processing. Average yield is expected to increase 15 cwt per acre from a year ago. Some early planted fields

have emerged. 

California’s spring potato production forecast, at 6.83 million cwt, is 18 percent below last year. Area for

harvest is down 8 percent and yield is down 50 cwt per acre. Generally poor market conditions prompted

growers to reduce acreage. In some areas, frost affected the crop resulting in lower yields. Texas spring

potato production is forecast at 2.42 million cwt, 19 percent below last season. Acreage for harvest has

decreased 16 percent and the average yield is expected to decline 10 cwt per acre from a year ago. Producers
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 16 NASS, USDA

report potatoes look good and weather conditions were holding constant. Arizona’s production is forecast at

1.96 million cwt, down 6 percent from last year. Growers report a 8 percent decrease in acreage for harvest

but expect a 5 cwt per acre yield increase over last year.

Summer Potatoes, 2003 Revisions: The final estimate of 2003 summer potato crop production is

19.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from the preliminary estimate in the January Crop Production

2003 Summary but 6 percent above 2002. Harvested area covered 59,000 acres, down 1 percent from the

January estimate and down less than 1 percent from 2002. The average yield of 322 cwt per acre is down

2 cwt from the January preliminary estimate.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.75 million pounds for March, 2 percent lower than

February and 35 percent below March 2003. Area in crop totaled 2,110 acres, 4 percent below last month

and 7 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,165 acres, 13 percent lower than February and

23 percent less than a year ago. Weather conditions were mostly wet during March. Soil moisture has been

ample in non-irrigated orchards. Abundant rainfall throughout the month increased humidity levels resulting

in favorable conditions for diseases such as Black spot and Phytophthora. These diseases adversely affect

papaya leaves and roots, and reduce production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 17 NASS, USDA

Reliability of April 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees

and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit

droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas

conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also

conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the

current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State

analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. This means that

chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final

estimates by more than 3.0 percent. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the

difference will not exceed 5.3 percent.

Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

191,000 tons, ranging from 1,000 tons to 716,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the

final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year

are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

April 2004 18 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Jim Smith - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202 )720-2127

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next Crop Production report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on May 12, 2004.

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