Cr Pr 2-2 (3-06)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released March 10, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down 2 Percent

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2005-06 season is 9.00 million tons, down 2 percent from the February

forecast and 1 percent below last season's final utilization of 9.11 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at

154 million boxes (6.93 million tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 3 percent from the

2004-05 crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties are forecast at 76.0 million boxes (3.42 million tons),

down 5 percent from the previous forecast and 4 percent below last season’s final utilization. The Florida

Valencia forecast is 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up

11 percent from last season's final utilization. If realized, this will be the first time that Valencia utilized

production is greater than utilized production from early, midseason, and navel varieties. The reduction in

early, midseason, and navel varieties is based on estimated certifications of fruit utilization combined with

projections of remaining fruit to be processed. February measurements of Valencia fruit size and drop

indicate smaller projected fruit sizes than last month which are offset by a lower drop rate than was forecast

last month.

California’s all orange forecast is 53.0 million boxes (1.99 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous

forecast and 13 percent below last season. Valencia oranges are forecast at 11.0 million boxes (413,000 tons),

down 8 percent from the January forecast and 39 percent below last season’s final utilization. Valencia

harvest will begin mid-month for most growing areas. California conducted an objective measurement survey

for the March 1 Valencia forecast. This survey showed the average number of fruit per tree is lower than last

season, while fruit size is virtually unchanged. Fruit is generally of good quality but some splits have been

noted. The California navel forecast as well as Arizona and Texas orange production forecasts are carried

forward from January.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2005-06 season, at 1.58 gallons per box at

42.0 degrees Brix, is unchanged from both last month’s and last season’s yields as reported by the Florida

Citrus Processors Association. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.52 gallons, unchanged

from last month but down from 1.53 gallons for the 2004-05 crop. The Valencia yield, at 1.66 gallons, is

unchanged from last month but down from the 1.68 gallons last season. All projections of yield assume the

processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on March 10, 2006.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Charles F. Conner

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Carol C. House
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas ........................................................................... 4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit ......................................................................... 5

Lemons ........................................................................... 5

Oranges ........................................................................... 5

Tangelos .......................................................................... 5

Tangerines ......................................................................... 5

Temples ........................................................................... 5

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Sugarcane ......................................................................... 4

Crop Comments ...................................................................... 13

Crop Summary ........................................................................ 6

Information Contacts .................................................................. 17

Reliability of Production Data in this Report ............................................... 16

Weather Maps ........................................................................ 12

Weather Summary .................................................................... 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2004-2005

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2004 2005 2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

385.0

21.8

430.0

42.7

879.5

21.0

1.4

35.0

1.3

58.7

406.0

23.2

465.0

44.0

938.2

377.0

22.4

420.0

41.0

860.4

24.0

1.5

35.0

2.0

62.5

401.0

23.9

455.0

43.0

922.9

34.9

90.8

23.8

37.3

31.0

40.2

33.5

23.8

35.0

30.2

35.2

87.3

23.8

37.3

30.9

32.4

90.3

23.0

37.7

29.6

38.8

36.0

23.0

24.5

29.4

32.8

86.9

23.0

37.1

29.6

13,437

1,979

10,234

1,593

27,243

844

47

833

46

1,770

14,281

2,026

11,067

1,639

29,013

12,215

2,023

9,660

1,546

25,444

931

54

805

49

1,839

13,146

2,077

10,465

1,595

27,283

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the “Crop Production 2005 Summary.”

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2005-2006

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2005 2006

2005 2006 2005 2006

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jan

Feb

2,245

2,250

2,280

2,285

1,410

1,410

1,785

1,785

2,580

2,425

2,815

2,490

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2003-2004, 2004-2005 and Forecasted March 1, 2006 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early, Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

300

39,500

126,000

1,420

167,220

170

11,000

116,000

230

127,400

470

50,500

242,000

1,650

294,620

1,400

15,900

25,000

140

5,800

40,900

5,700

52,540

690

2,200

6,500

9,390

3,000

18,000

21,000

1,000

240

43,000

79,100

1,500

123,840

190

18,000

70,500

270

88,960

430

61,000

149,600

1,770

212,800

650

3,400

9,400

140

5,800

12,800

6,600

25,340

400

2,800

4,450

7,650

2,400

19,000

21,400

1,550

250

42,000

76,000

1,300

119,550

200

11,000

78,000

230

89,430

450

53,000

154,000

1,530

208,980

800

5,000

12,000

100

6,000

17,000

5,100

28,200

500

3,100

5,200

8,800

3,800

19,000

22,800

1,400

12

1,481

5,670

60

7,223

6

413

5,220

10

5,649

18

1,894

10,890

70

12,872

63

675

1,063

5

194

1,738

228

2,165

25

83

309

417

114

684

798

45

9

1,613

3,560

64

5,246

7

675

3,173

11

3,866

16

2,288

6,733

75

9,112

29

145

400

5

194

545

264

1,008

15

105

211

331

91

722

813

70

9

1,575

3,420

55

5,059

8

413

3,510

10

3,941

17

1,988

6,930

65

9,000

36

213

510

3

201

723

204

1,131

19

116

247

382

144

722

866

63

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90;

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2005 2006 2005 2006

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3,875.0

81,759.0

4,246.0

565.0

3,384.0

1,433.0

6,454.0

57,229.0

40,433.0

2,760.0

14,036.0

1,159.0

983.0

49.0

1,657.0

2.4

165.0

72,142.0

2,709.0

14,195.4

13,925.0

270.4

1,294.8

42.5

1,659.3

808.0

450.0

1,107.2

20.0

68.0

50.6

968.6

90.4

41,367.0

17.7

3,269.0

75,107.0

5,920.0

61,649.0

22,389.0

39,260.0

1,823.0

515.0

3,364.0

279.0

5,736.0

311.0

50,119.0

33,794.0

2,716.0

13,609.0

1,114.0

955.0

44.6

1,629.0

2.0

160.0

71,361.0

2,610.0

13,702.6

13,434.0

268.6

1,238.9

922.9

298.0

24.5

1,562.9

765.9

439.0

6.1

0.1

29.5

76.0

1,084.6

19.8

66.7

48.6

949.5

17.7

87.8

0.4

17.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Yield Production

2005 2006 2005 2006

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

“

Tons

“

“

“

Bu

“

Cwt

Bu

“

Tons

Bu

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Bu

Lbs

“

“

“

Bu

Lbs

Bales

“

“

Tons

“

Lbs

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

Cwt

Lbs

64.8

147.9

18.0

2.44

3.38

1.91

63.0

26.3

6,636

27.0

68.7

13.6

42.0

44.4

37.2

37.1

1,419

20.6

787

2,960

1,500

1,203

43.3

1,540

831

824

1,171

22.3

29.6

2,147

1,253

1,742

1,828

1,176

1,050

42,500

1,791

92

388

247

281

334

401

109

179

254

211,896

11,112,072

106,311

150,590

75,771

74,819

114,878

13,545

223,235

7,537

393,893

4,218

2,104,690

1,499,129

101,105

504,456

1,580,985

8,501.0

19,695

35,114

4,821,250

3,000

192,545

3,086,432

4,018,355

23,719.0

23,064.0

655.0

27,654

27,283

639,709

307

27,222

14,003

5,163

755

6,400

5,100

52,914.5

6,980

420,879

4,892

18,724

16,237

381,026

1,933

15,747

4,000

4,440

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Production

2004 2005 2006

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI) 3

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Tons

“

“

“

“

“

1,000 Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

“

Lbs

Tons

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

Gals

2,165

798

12,872

45

417

63

10,450.6

101.1

16,500.0

6,240.0

104.0

35,800.0

1,307.1

877.3

49.0

25.0

1,005,000

37.5

185,800

325.0

1,507

1,008

813

9,112

70

331

29

9,869.6

81.4

6,974.9

139.0

32,500.0

1,182.6

812.3

90.0

8.7

900,000

28.0

259,600

355.0

1,242

1,131

866

9,000

63

382

36

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season. 2 Production years are 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006. 3 2005 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2005 2006 2005 2006

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

1,568,170

33,087,050

1,718,310

228,650

1,369,470

579,920

2,611,870

23,160,000

16,362,830

1,116,940

5,680,230

469,040

397,810

19,830

670,570

970

66,770

29,195,150

1,096,310

5,744,740

5,635,310

109,430

523,990

17,200

671,500

326,990

182,110

448,070

8,090

27,520

20,480

391,980

36,580

16,740,810

7,160

1,322,930

30,395,050

2,395,760

24,948,730

9,060,600

15,888,130

737,750

208,420

1,361,380

112,910

2,321,300

125,860

20,282,660

13,676,090

1,099,140

5,507,430

450,820

386,480

18,050

659,240

810

64,750

28,879,080

1,056,240

5,545,310

5,436,610

108,700

501,370

373,490

120,610

9,910

632,490

309,950

177,660

2,470

50

11,960

30,760

438,930

8,010

26,990

19,670

384,250

7,160

35,530

150

7,080

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2005 2006 2005 2006

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.49

9.29

40.26

5.48

7.59

4.27

2.26

1.47

7.44

1.70

4.31

30.40

2.82

2.98

2.50

2.49

1.59

1.29

0.88

3.32

1.68

1.35

2.91

1.73

0.93

0.92

1.31

50.04

66.27

2.41

1.40

1.95

2.05

1.32

1.18

47.64

2.01

0.10

43.49

27.69

31.46

37.45

44.98

0.12

20.10

28.44

4,613,490

282,259,630

96,443,720

136,612,950

68,738,290

67,874,660

1,667,450

307,200

10,125,770

191,450

10,005,340

3,826,510

57,280,270

40,799,610

2,751,630

13,729,040

717,120

7,711,980

500,280

15,930

2,186,880

1,360

87,340

83,998,910

1,822,700

5,164,200

5,021,590

142,610

25,087,290

24,750,720

290,170

13,930

1,234,770

635,170

234,190

34,250

2,900

2,310

24,000

3,170

19,090,750

221,900

849,310

736,500

17,283,050

880

714,270

1,810

201,400

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2004 2005 2006

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

1,964,050

723,930

11,677,280

40,820

378,300

57,150

4,740,310

91,740

7,480

5,660,860

94,350

16,240

1,185,790

795,840

44,450

22,680

455,860

34,020

84,280

294,840

7,530

914,440

737,540

8,266,270

63,500

300,280

26,310

4,476,780

73,800

6,327,520

126,100

14,740

1,072,840

736,930

81,650

7,890

408,230

25,400

117,750

322,050

6,210

1,026,030

785,620

8,164,660

57,150

346,540

32,660

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 12 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 13 NASS, USDA

February Weather Summary

Drought stress on pastures and dryland winter grains remained severe across the southern Plains and the

Southwest, and began to spread northward through the central Plains. Farther north, snow insulated most of

Nebraska’s winter wheat from a short-lived but severe cold wave, while Montana’s wheat had only patchy,

shallow protection on February 17-18 from temperatures as low as -30 degrees F. Meanwhile, drier-thannormal weather returned to much of California and the Pacific Northwest, but abundant February snowfall

maintained favorable prospects for summer water supplies across the northern Rockies and the interior

Northwest. In contrast, the Southwest continued to brace for minimal spring and summer runoff, although

many reservoirs remained at favorable levels following the phenomenally wet winter of 2004-05. Farther

east, rain provided additional drought relief from eastern Texas to the Delta, while drought persisted in the

central Corn Belt. Dryness gradually intensified across the interior Southeast, including North Carolina, while

periodic rainfall eased previously dry conditions in Florida. However, the Southeast had a mid-month brush

with cold weather, culminating on February 14 in a light freeze as far south as interior southern Florida. 

Elsewhere, a February 11-12 snow storm interrupted an otherwise quiet weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic

States, while Midwestern conditions ranged from drier than normal in the Ohio and middle Mississippi

Valleys to frequently snowy in the Great Lakes region.

Sharp temperature fluctuations tended to average out, resulting in near-normal February temperatures across

much of the Nation. On the Plains, for example, warm spells in early February and again toward month’s end

were balanced by a week-long cold snap beginning in mid-February. Elsewhere, monthly temperatures

averaged slightly below normal across the South and Northwest, but were mostly above normal in the

drought-stricken Southwest.

February Agricultural Summary

After 2 months of above-normal temperatures nationwide, February was marked by more normal

temperatures. Though the central Corn Belt, northern Great Plains, and Southwest continued to experience

warm weather, below-normal temperatures prevailed across the Southeast, Mississippi Delta, Pacific

Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountains.

February was a dry month for most of the Nation. Precipitation was below normal across the Corn Belt,

favoring land preparation. In the Great Plains, however, a continued lack of precipitation was a serious

concern for winter wheat growers. Most northern areas of the region lacked a protective snow cover due to 

warm weather in previous months, leaving the crop exposed to occasional sub-zero temperatures. Meanwhile,

in the southern Great Plains, lack of rainfall, warm weather, and windy conditions continued to deplete soil

moisture, causing further stress to winter grains.

Elsewhere, the Southwest remained dry throughout the month, with temperatures averaging above normal. 

Moderate precipitation and below-normal temperatures prevailed in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky

Mountains. In Florida, freezing temperatures in the peninsula around midmonth forced the use of irrigation

and wind machines to avoid freeze damage to citrus crops. Field preparation was active across the Southeast

and Mississippi Delta, while some planting of summer crops had occurred in Texas.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for the 2005 crop year is estimated at 27.3 million

tons, 6 percent below 2004 but 1 percent above last month. Area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and

seed for the 2005 crop year, at 922,900 acres, is down 2 percent from the previous year’s harvested area and

down fractionally from the February estimate. Yield is estimated at 29.6 tons per acre, 1.3 tons below the

2004 crop but 0.2 ton above the previous estimate. The U.S. yield and production estimates are the lowest

since 1933 and 1980, respectively.

Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. Florida’s harvest was nearly

finished by month’s end. Total harvested area in Florida was down 1,000 acres from the February estimate. 

The estimated yield in Florida increased by 0.5 ton, more than enough to compensate for the lower acreage

estimate, resulting in a 1 percent increase in production.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.49 million pounds for February, 12 percent lower

than the previous month but 3 percent higher than February 2005. Area in crop totaled 2,285 acres, virtually

unchanged from last month but up 2 percent from last February. Harvested area totaled 1,785 acres,

unchanged from the previous month but 27 percent above a year ago. Late January rains encouraged
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 14 NASS, USDA

flowering and growth but excessive February rains in Oahu and Kauai over-saturated some fields. Cooler

temperatures slowed fruit development and increased the need for spraying. In Puna, younger fields came

into production and new orchards were planted.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2005-06 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.13 million tons, up 4 percent from the

previous forecast and 12 percent above last season’s final utilization. Florida's grapefruit production is

forecast at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), up 6 percent from the February 1 forecast and 33 percent above

last year’s hurricane-damaged crop. The white grapefruit utilization forecast, at 5.00 million boxes

(213,000 tons), is up 25 percent from February and 47 percent above last season’s utilization. The colored

seedless utilization forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (510,000 tons), is unchanged from the February 1 forecast

but 28 percent higher than the 2004-05 season’s utilization. The primary indicators for the March grapefruit

forecast are the row count survey and estimated utilization to March 1. Arizona, California, and Texas

grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from January.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast, at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), is up 17 percent from the

February 1 forecast but down 10 percent from last season’s utilized production. Due to higher processing

tangelo prices, a more complete harvest is anticipated this season than in recent years.

Tangerines: The 2005-06 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 382,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast

but up 15 percent from last season’s utilization of 331,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop is forecast at

5.20 million boxes (247,000 tons), unchanged from the February forecast but 17 percent higher than last

season’s 4.45 million boxes. Early tangerine (Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) harvest is virtually complete. 

Harvest of the later Honey variety tangerine is underway with 46 percent of the rows harvested. Arizona and

California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from January.

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast for the 2005-06 season is 800,000 boxes (36,000 tons), unchanged from

the February forecast but 23 percent above last season’s hurricane-reduced final utilization of 650,000 boxes. 

The row count survey showed 40 percent of the rows have been harvested. If realized, this will be the second

lowest utilized production, behind last season.

Florida Citrus: The month of February brought much needed rain to Florida citrus producing areas. Over

6 inches of rain fell in the north and at least 2.5 inches were recorded in the other citrus regions. 

Temperatures for the month were cooler than normal, with lows of 29 degrees reported in 4 of the 7 routinely

monitored areas. Even lower temperatures were reported in several other areas, although of short duration,

and no fruit damage was observed. Trees in all growing areas had begun to form small flower buds by the end

of the month. Grower activities included fertilizer application, brush removal, and hedging and topping after

harvest. Citrus maturity levels continued to lag behind normal for the month. Most orange harvest activities

focused on the early-midseason varieties but limited Valencia harvest had begun. The volumes of grapefruit

and Honey tangerine movement had increased to nearly 800,000 boxes and 150,000 boxes per week,

respectively, by the end of February.

California Citrus: Harvesting of navel oranges, grapefruit, lemons, mandarins, tangelos, and tangerines

continued during February with good yields reported. Growers applied copper, lime, and zinc to citrus groves

in order to control fungal disease and to comply with export requirements. Early variety Valencia orange

harvest began but some maturity problems were reported. Citrus growers were busy running water and wind

machines when temperatures dropped below freezing. Navel demand in the domestic and export markets was

moderate. Puff and rind problems continued to be problematic in navels resulting in lower than normal

pack-outs.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 15 NASS, USDA

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: General maintenance activities were underway during February in

many grape vineyards as growers replaced stakes and trellis wire, pruned vines, and shredded canes. Several

grape growers were busy discing between rows and applying herbicides to control weeds. Insecticides were

applied to some vineyards to control vine mealybugs. Warm temperatures at the beginning of the month

caused some early variety fruit trees to prematurely begin pushing buds. Freezing temperatures followed,

raising concerns of crop damage to these early fruit crops. Early almond trees were starting to bloom at the

beginning of the month. By month’s end, most early variety almond orchards were in full bloom, and later

varieties had begun blooming. A few orchards were treated with fungicides to prevent blossom rot. The

freezing temperatures during the month caused some damage to early almond varieties but the overall impact

remains to be determined. The cool temperatures also slowed honeybee activity in almond orchards. 

Replanting of almond, walnut, and pistachio orchards continued. New peach orchards were planted in the San

Joaquin Valley. Strawberry plants continued to show good growth in the San Joaquin Valley, and harvesting

began along the central coast.
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March 2006 16 NASS, USDA

Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start

of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on

administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is

determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are

conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of

production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in

October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for

navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These 4 States submit their analyses of the current

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to

prepare the published March 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.2 percent. However, if you

exclude the 6 abnormal production seasons (5 freeze seasons and 1 hurricane season), the "Root Mean Square

Error" is 1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will

not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.2 percent, or 1.9 percent, excluding abnormal

seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent,

or 3.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

248,000 tons (193,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons

(3,000 tons to 503,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below

the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). 

The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final

production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2006 17 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Scott Cox - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Travis Thorson - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-2157

Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
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