Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes,
11 Major States, 1995-96 Crop

Potato Types 1/

State Russets
1996
co 5 6 95 94
ID 2 5 7 95 93
ME : 3 3 70 64 27 33
MI : 2 3 73 72 25 25
MN 28 28 24 22 48 50
NY : 100 100
ND : 20 20 46 42 34 38
OR 2 2 27 35 71 63
PA 100 100
WA 3 2 14 15 83 83
Wr 41 14 25 28 64 58

1/ Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s)
constituting less than 1 percent of state's total.

Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes,
by State and Total, 1995-96 1/

1995 Crop 1996 Crop
Entered for 3 : Percent: : Entered for
Certification : Certified : Certified : Certification

- Percent Acres

AK : 211

CA : 1,136 1,113 98 1,100
co 3 11,865 11,895 100 13,225
ID : 52,000 51,989 100 51,730
ME : 26,469 25,153 95 23,900
MI 3 3,000 2,562 85 2,950
MN : 22,558 19,727 87 19,376
MT : 9,500 9,542 100 9,700
NE 3 8,000 9,026 113 8,213
NY : 1,800 2,048 114 1,550
ND 3 33,082 32,099 97 31,581
OR : 2,900 2,730 94 2,667
PA 2 207 183 88 207
sD : 2,024 1,892 93 767
UT : 100 100 100 100
WA 2 2,319 2,299 99 2,100

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 A-20 NASS, USDA


Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop, State,
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

Total Production

Crop and State

Grapes Table Type

CA : 602,000 718,000 720,000
Grapes Wine Type 3

CA 3 2,265,000 2,275,000 2,300,000
Grapes Raisin Type 1/ :

CA : 2,389,000 2,255,000 2,250,000
All Grapes :

cA : 5,256,000 5,248,000 5,270,000
Apricots 2

CA : 145,000 52,000 70,000

UT 2/ : 400 300

WA : 7,800 6,500 3,000

US 7 153,200 58,500 73,300
Walnuts 3/ :

CA : 232,000 234,000 235,000

1,000 Pounds

Almonds (Shelled Basis) 3/:
CA : 735,000 370,000 530,000
1/ Fresh basis.
2/ No significant commercial production in 1995 due to frost damage.
3/ Utilized production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 A-14 NASS, USDA


June Weather Summary: Late-month rainfall substantially boosted soil moisture

and eased drought in New Mexico and western Texas, but
drought intensified elsewhere across the Southwest and southern Plains. New
Mexico's year-to-date precipitation improved to 82 percent of normal by month's
end, up from 38% on June 23. Farther north, an early-month cessation of heavy
rain promoted Midwestern planting and crop development, broken only by
torrential precipitation across the northern Corn Belt on June 16-18. In the
Southeast, a turn toward dryness, accompanied by late-month heat, began to
stress crops.

June temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees F above normal across the interior
Northeast and in a belt from the Southwest into the northern Plains. Near-
normal readings prevailed from the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Only
the Pacific Northwest, where departures reached -2 degrees F, experienced sub-
normal June temperatures. Cold air cloaked interior basins and valleys of the
Northwest on June 19, producing lows of 21 degrees F in Burns, OR and 29 degrees
F in Butte, MT. Temperatures dipped into the 30's in agricultural areas,
including lows of 37 degrees F in Spokane, WA and 39 degrees F in Pendleton, OR.
Earlier in the month (June 1-10), heat across the West delivered nearly

100 daily-record highs.

In Paducah, KY, all but 0.04 inches of the 7.78-inch monthly rainfall occurred
between June 1-10. The month's heaviest rain fell on June 9 in locations such
as Paducah (3.60 inches), Evansville, IN (3.67 inches), and South Bend, IN
(2.51 inches). On June 16-18, widespread small-stream flooding resulted from
rainfall that totaled 13.52 inches in Port Washington, WI. Farther east,
localized flooding struck on June 18-19 in the northern Middle Atlantic region,
where the 24-hour total reached 10.72 inches in Gettysburg, PA. A 7,95-inch
monthly total in Pittsburgh, PA represented their fourth-wettest June. Farther
south, frequent thunderstorms over Peninsular Florida boosted monthly totals to
more than a foot at a few coastal sites.

In contrast, no rain fell during June in Tucson, AZ, extending their third-
longest dry spell on record to 108 days. In addition, Tucson's monthly
temperature averaged 3.6 degrees F above normal, marking their 12th consecutive
month with above-normal readings. Farther east, the monthly rainfall of

0.01 inches in Brownsville, TX wrapped up their driest January-June period on
record (0.80 inches), shattering the mark of 1.58 inches, set in 1953. Also in
southern Texas, San Antonio's monthly total of 2.12 inches (1.69 inches below
normal) boosted their January-June total to a mere 5.26 inches, ahead of only
1925 and 1917. Levels of the International Amistad and Falcon Reservoirs,
already at record-low levels, continued to fall during June, dropping to 31% and
12% of normal conservation-pool capacities, respectively. The holdings of Choke
Canyon (south of San Antonio), also at a record low, slipped to 29% of normal.

Hawaiian temperatures and precipitation averaged slightly above normal at most
observing stations. Monthly temperatures in Alaska averaged near normal despite
large day-to-day oscillations. On the Sth and 6th, the most widespread freeze
since 1982 struck the Yukon and Tanana Valleys. Monthly records set on June 5
included 28 degrees F in Circle City and 29 degrees F in Northway. Northway's
low of 31 degrees F on June 15 marked their latest freeze on record. Three days
later, Barrow notched a June-record high of 72 degrees F. Alaskan precipitation
was highly variable. While Anchorage noted 0.50 inches (44% of normal), Juneau
logged a June-record 6.22 inches. On the last day of the month, Juneau's 2.26-
inch rainfall was their greatest single-day June total.

General Crop Comments: Rain and soggy fields in early June limited planting
progress in the eastern Corn Belt. Some Midwestern row-

crop producers started planting 3 weeks behind schedule. The first week of the

month had fewer than 2 days suitable for fieldwork in parts of the Ohio Valley.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-4 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1995 and Forecasted July 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

1995 1996 1995 1996
Hectares
Oats 3 2,564,120 1,864,810 1,197,480 1,081,740
Barley : 2,706,970 2,887,060 2,540,240 2,736,110
All Wheat : 27,995,240 30,604,280 24,674,350 25,543,220
Winter : 19,718,920 21,065,330 16,589,460 16,226,850
Durum 3 1,390,510 1,442,720 1,358,140 1,398,610
Other Spring : 6,885,800 8,096,230 6,726,760 7,917,760
Potatoes :
Winter 1/ 2 5,380 5,500 4,820 5,460
Spring 1/ : 35,730 37,190 34,120 36,100
Summer : 29,300 32,210 28,570 31,080
Fall z 494,980 510,400 487,450 503,680
Total : 565,390 585,300 554,950 576,320
All Tobacco 3 268,350 293,070
Flue-cured :
Types 11-14 156,290 162,000

Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1995 and Forecasted July 1, 1996
(Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare Production

Crop -
Jul i,
1995 1996
Metric Tons
Oats 1.96 2.08 2,349,200 2,249,350
Barley 3.08 3.13 7,818,520 8,569,450
All Wheat 2.41 2.41 59,480,620 61,596,030
Winter 2.54 2.49 42,110,900 37,281,510 40,410,610
Durum 2.05 2.40 2,783,610 3,359,810
Other Spring 2.17 2.25 14,586,110 17,825,610
Potatoes :
Winter 1/ : 23.27 24.15 112,170 131,860
Spring 1/ : 26.84 26.63 915,940 961,480
Summer : 28.35 27.55 809,890 856,200
Fall : 37.40 18,228,930
Total > 36.16 20,066,930
All Tobacco : 2.14 575,380
Flue-cured 2
Types 11-14 2 2.17 2.51 338,660 406,650
Peaches 3 1,043,850 901,920
Apricots : 53,070 66,500
Dried Prunes (CA) 3 164,200 181,440
Almonds (CA) 2/ : 167,830 235,870 240,400
Walnuts (CA) 3 212,280 213,190

1/ Estimates for current month carried forward from an earlier forecast.
2/ dune 1 estimate carried forward from the May 1 forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 A-5 NASS, USDA


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employment opportunity employer.

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1996 B-15 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE |
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

July 6, 1996

UPDATED WEEKLY {*

FAVORABLY
MoT

DRY” ABNORMALLY:

NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY pased on orai reposts

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-i NASS, USDA


Other Spring Wheat: Area for 1996 grain harvest is 19.6 million acre for
harvest, up 18 percent from 1995. This is the largest area
since 1919. Only Washington has forecast less harvested area than last year.

Oregon and Washington yield prospects are up from a year ago while Idaho's are
down. The Oregon forecast is up despite a reported hard frost on June 18 and 19.
A hard freeze on June 19 affected irrigated wheat in south central and eastern
Idaho; flood delayed plantings in the north reduced dryland prospects there.

Spring weather delayed planting in the Dakotas. Growing conditions have been
good once the crops got in. Seventy-one percent, of the crop was rated good to
excellent as of the first of July.

Tobacco: The first flue-cured production forecast for this season is

897 million pounds, up 20 percent from the 1995 production. Yield per
acre for all flue-cured is forecast at 2,240 pounds, 307 pounds above the 1995
average yield. Acres for harvest, at 400,300 acres, are up 4 percent from last
year.

North Carolina's crop is up 24 percent from last year, due to favorable weather
that helped tobacco mature. North Carolina’s tobacco crop was reported in
mostly good to excellent condition. Late June topping and sucker control was
active in North Carolina, where markets are expected to open by mid-July.

Tobacco transplanting started behind normal in Georgia and South Carolina due to
wet, cold weather during April. Florida’s tobacco survived a mid-April freeze
with some leaf burn reported. Irrigation was required in Georgia, South
Carolina, and Virginia where hot, dry weather in May and June depleted soil
moisture supplies but reduced disease problems. In South Carolina, 55 percent
of the tobacco was topped by July 1 compared to an average of 60 percent.

Peaches: The 1996 peach crop is forecast at 1.99 billion pounds, down

14 percent from 1995 and 21 percent below 1994. Excluding California
Clingstone peaches, the U.S. crop is forecast at 988 million pounds, down
31 percent from last year and down 29 percent from 1994. If realized, this
production level will be the lowest since 1983 when 1.86 billion pounds were
produced. A devastating freeze during February, and again in March, severely
limited fruit set and reduced crop potential in the Southeast and Central
growing areas.

California's Clingstone crop, at 1.00 billion pounds, is unchanged from last
month's forecast but reflects a 16 percent increase from 1995 production.
California Clingstone peaches, which are mostly canned, account for nearly

50 percent of U.S. peach production. Harvest began in mid-June and is about one-
fifth complete. Fruit quality is good with above-average fruit size reported.

The California Freestone crop is expected to produce 620 million pounds,
unchanged from June 1 and 24 percent above the 1995 weather reduced crop.
Harvest is progressing on schedule with favorable weather conditions. Fruit
size and quality are good.

South Carolina's forecast of 20 million pounds is also unchanged from June 1,
but is substantially below the 215 million pounds produced in 1995. This level
represents the lowest production since 1955 when the peach crop froze out.
Extensive freeze damage during early spring caused this year’s reduction.
Harvest gained momentum during June and is in line with the historic average of
18 percent complete. Most of this year’s short crop is rated in poor to fair
condition.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-7 NASS, USDA


Departure of Average Temperature from Normal (°F)
JUN 1996

Ce
by OM.
My VAR id) A
OR GSSISE A
YG: yy,

MAG
RL CR

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-3 NASS, USDA




Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 1994-96
Seasonal : Area Harvested :
Group and eee

Winter 1/

CA 5.0 5.7 260 250 968 1,300 1,425
FL 6.9 7.8 170 190 1,404 1,173 1,482
Total 11.9 13.5 208 215 2,372 2,473 2,907
Spring 1/
AL 2.5 1.9 160 160 438 400 304
AZ 6.5 9.0 270 275 1,670 1,755 2,475
cA 17.8 20.1 350 375 7,790 6,230 7,538
FL : 36.0 35.5 218 195 8,588 7,830 6,940
Hastings 3 27.0 27.5 220 200 6,380 5,940 5,500
Other FL Hy 9.0 8.0 210 180 2,208 1,890 1,440
NC : 16.5 16.2 185 175 3,060 3,053 2,835
TX 5.0 6.5 185 170 1,100 925 1,105
Total 84.3 89.2 240 238 22,646 20,193 21,197
Summer
AL 6.7 6.7 170 140 1,190 1,139 938
CA 5.5 5.5 320 320 2,109 1,760 1,760
co 9.0 9.7 300 345 3,069 2,700 3,347
DE 5.9 5.9 250 240 816 1,475 1,416
IL 5.5 6.9 270 260 1,450 1,485 1,794
IA 1.6 1.5 150 200 328 240 300
MD 1.5 1.9 240 200 250 360 380
MO 6.9 7.6 230 215 1,734 1,587 1,634
NE 4.4 5.5 285 330 1,408 1,254 1,815
NT 2.6 2.5 270 230 588 702 575
NM 4.2 3.9 320 340 1,088 1,344 1,326
NC 1.3 1.2 95 90 126 124 108
TX 7.0 9.5 235 210 1,800 1,645 1,995
VA 8.5 8.5 240 175 1,425 2,040 1,488
Total 70.6 76.8 253 246 17,381 17,855 18,876
See footnotes at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1996 A-18 NASS, USDA


Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

-- 1,000 Bushels --

1,000 Acres

99 159 86.0 93.0 95.0 8,514 15,105
CA 68 138 100.0 100.0 100.0 6,800 13,800
MN : 12 10 30.0 35.0 360 350
MT : 265 225 30.0 29.0 7,950 6,525
ND : 2,880 2,900 27.0 30.0 77,760 87,000
sD 32 24 28.0 28.0 896 672
us : 3,356 3,456 30.5 35.7 102,280 123,452

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

1,000 Acres -- Bushels --
co 3 38 68 70.0 70.0 3,234 2,660 4,760
ID : 560 700 80.0 75.0 43,400 44,800 52,500
MN : 2,200 2,400 32.0 33.0 70,000 70,400 79,200
MT : 3,800 4,100 35.0 33.0 100,500 133,000 135,300
NV 3 6 10 75.0 70.0 220 450 700
ND 3 8,200 9,500 27.0 30.0 278,775 222,400 285,000
OR : 114 125 52.0 54.0 2,900 5,928 6,750
sD 3 1,200 2,200 28.0 31.0 51,480 33,600 68,200
uT 3 26 28 75.0 65.0 1,012 1,950 1,820
WA : 445 395 46.0 49.0 9,800 20,470 19,355
Wi 3 8 10 30.0 35.0 270 240 350
wy : 25 29 42.0 36.0 700 1,050 1,044
us : 16,622 19,565 32.2 33.5 562,291 535,948 654,979
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1996 A-10 NASS, USDA


Barley........-+.. beter eee

Citrus Fruit....... bea eeeee

Crop Moisture Maps...... eae

Crop Summary....... teen

Index

Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts.

OatsS....-..-

Papayas-Hawaii............4.

P@acheS...-.- see eeeeeeereee

Potatoes... ...- eee eee eee eee

Reliability Statement.......

Tobacco, by Class and Type..

Wheat, All......

Wheat, by Class.............

Wheat, Durum....

Wheat, Other Spring........

Wheat, Winter...

Crop Production
July 1996

Page

Table

eee eeee A-15

te eeeee A- 3

tae eeees A-14

see eeee A-16

peeeeee  A-13

a eeees A-17

sees A-12

sae eeee A-12
stones A-10
see A-10

eecenee A- 3

Narrative

B- 6
B- 9
B- 1

B-10
B- 5
B-10
B- 7
B-10
B-12

B- 7

Boo w
nar 7

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


51.3 million boxes. Caretakers were very active cutting cover crops that made
good growth with the help of the heavy rains. Growers fertilized and sprayed.
Dead trees were pushed out and new trees were planted.

California Fruit and Nuts: Harvest was active during June for many crops

including figs, apricots, freestone peaches, plums,
and nectarines. Picking of grapes for fresh use was virtually complete in the
Coachella Valley by late June and just beginning in the southern San Joaquin
Valley. Strawberry picking was also active. Clingstone peach growers thinned
their crops while almond and walnut growers treated their crops for aphids and
mites.

California Citrus: Grapefruit picking was nearly complete for the desert area,

but active in other areas. Color and quality were good but
some wind scaring, scale, and sheepnose were noted. Lemon picking in the
Central Valley and south coast areas was active. Grades in the Central Valley
were good. South coast area weather conditions varied from bright and sunny to
overcast and foggy. Fruit quality was variable there. Lemon harvest was
complete in the desert area. Navel orange harvest was complete and quality was
affected by puff, crease, and soft fruit resulting in heavy grade out. Valencia
orange picking slowed due to competition from stonefruits in the marketplace.
Approximately one half of the crop was picked by July 1. Valencia growth was
below average this season resulting in smaller sized fruit. Quality was good in
the Central valley but heavy puff and crease plagued Southern California.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.16 million pounds,
1 percent higher than May but 17 percent lower than a year ago.

Weather conditions during June were a mixture of gunshine and rain over major
papaya producing areas. Soil moisture toward month's end was adequate. Papaya
ringspot virus continued to be a problem in infected orchards.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,790 acres, 1 percent higher than May
and fractionally higher than June, 1995. Harvested area, totaling 2,425 acres,
was 4 percent higher than May but 8 percent lower than a year ago.

All Potatoes: Potato farmers across the United States have planted an estimated
1.45 million acres of potatoes in all four seasonal groups, up

4 percent from last year and 2 percent above 1994, Area for harvest is forecast

at 1.42 million acres, a gain of 4 percent from a year ago and 3 percent above

two years ago. Planted acreage for each of the seasons is above a year ago.

Winter is up 2 percent, spring rose 4 percent, summer jumped 10 percent, and the

fall season, with 87 percent of total U. S. acreage, gained 3 percent.

Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes in 1996 is estimated at a record
high 1.26 million acres, up 3 percent from last year and

2 percent above the previous record in 1994. Harvest is expected from

1.24 million acres, 3 percent above the last two years.

Most fall potatoes started late across the U. S. with cool weather, rain and
planting delays. Warm days in late May and through June allowed planting to
finish on time or ahead of schedule. Most potato development is doing well and
some ahead of last year. Frost on June 19 hit fields in Southern and Eastern
Oregon and across much of Idaho. Fields were burnt to the ground but plants

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-10 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

1,000 Acres - 1,000 Bushels

AZ: 21 49 90.

0 105.0 3,135 1,890 5,145
CA : 200 220 70.0 65.0 14,300 14,000 14,300
co : 100 90 100.0 105.0 7,470 10,000 9,450
DE : 37 23 80.0 70.0 1,890 2,960 1,610
ID 2 760 730 80.0 717.0 54,000 60,800 56,210
KS : 9 10 35.0 30.0 532 315 300
KY 3 15 20 70.0 70.0 1,106 1,050 1,400
MD : 62 49 81.0 60.0 4,200 5,022 2,940
MI z 23 25 50.0 46.0 1,632 1,150 1,150
MN 3 580 525 50.0 53.0 30,000 29,000 27,825
MT : 1,200 1,250 52.0 52.0 52,800 62,400 65,000
NE 2 6 18 37.0 43.0 304 222 774
NV : 4 5 80.0 100.0 340 320 500
NJ : 5 3 65.0 68.0 265 325 204
NC 3 30 20 60.0 65.0 1,750 1,800 1,300
ND > 2,250 2,550 45.0 50.0 132,000 101,250 127,500
OK : 3 3 30.0 25.0 222 90 75
OR : 95 130 76.0 74.0 9,490 7,220 9,620
PA 3 75 75 69.0 65.0 4,875 5,175 4,875
sc 2 5 4 42.0 55.0 504 210 220
sD 160 140 38.0 44.0 13,020 6,080 6,160
TX 7 7 46.0 32.0 264 322 224
ut 93 100 90.0 83.0 8,025 8,370 8,300
VA 80 80 84.0 69.0 6,351 6,720 5,520
WA 290 440 72.0 66.0 14,335 20,880 29,040
wi 72 75 48.0 50.0 4,452 3,456 3,750
wy 95 120 85.0 85.0 7,600 8,075 10,200
us 6,277 6,761 57.2 58.2 374,862 359,102 393,592
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1996 A-7 NASS, USDA


Oats: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

Production

1,000 Acres Bushels --
AL : 23 17 35.0 50.0 1,650 805 850
AR : 18 25 85.0 70.0 1,540 1,530 1,750
CA : 30 30 85.0 80.0 2,400 2,550 2,400
co : 33 30 62.0 58.0 1,440 2,046 1,740
GA H 35 35 50.0 62.0 3,350 1,750 2,170
ID 3 20 30 80.0 80.0 1,300 1,600 2,400
IL : 80 70 67.0 67.0 5,490 5,360 4,690
IN : 30 25 68.0 66.0 1,855 2,040 1,650
IA 3 225 225 65.0 62.0 26,660 14,625 13,950
KS : 80 80 47.0 48.0 5,520 3,760 3,840
ME 3 24 28 60.0 75.0 1,680 1,440 2,100
MD : 6 7 61.0 56.0 270 366 392
MI . +90 60 57.0 56.0 6,270 5,130 3,360
MN : 375 270 48.0 60.0 24,750 18,000 16,200
MO : 29 29 47.0 51.0 1,768 1,363 1,479
MT : 80 50 59.0 58.0 3,600 4,720 2,900
NE : 90 90 50.0 55.0 7,500 4,500 4,950
NY 2 90 75 59.0 60.0 7,040 5,310 4,500
NC 3 30 20 65.0 62.0 2,600 1,950 1,240
ND : 450 330 48.0 58.0 33,550 21,600 19,140
OH : 100 100 69.0 55.0 6,720 6,900 5,500
OK 3 20 20 39.0 30.0 1,110 780 600
OR : 35 35 97.0 101.0 4,500 3,395 3,535
PA : 160 140 59.0 57.0 8,480 9,440 7,980
sc 2 35 30 45.0 58.0 2,840 1,575 1,740
sD 3 250 330 46.0 58.0 31,360 11,500 19,140
TX : 120 120 42.0 30.0 5,200 5,040 3,600
UT 9 10 70.0 72.0 600 630 720
WA 14 18 80.0 75.0 1,160 1,120 1,350
wv 5 4 42.0 48.0 225 210 192
wi 340 310 55.0 55.0 25,380 18,700 17,050
wy 33 30 64.0 62.0 1,200 2,112 1,860
US : 2,959 2,673 54.7 58.0 229,008 161,847 154,968
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

duly 1996 A-6 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal
Group, State, and United States, 1994-96 (continued)

Seasonal Area Harvested yield Production
Group and
State
Fall 3/
CA 410 5,600 5,330
co 310 25,795 23,808
ID 330 138,801 131,274
10 SW Co 410 12,690 11,070
Other ID 324 126,111 120,204
IN 260 1,148 1,196
ME 220 18,375 17,160
MA 260 744 858
MI 300 14,910 16,500
MN 270 20,035 20,790
MT 300 3,200 2,940
NE 320 3,996 3,680
NV 365 2,760 2,774
NM 380 3,000 2,394
NY 270 7,805 7,695
ND 210 28,200 25,410
OH 260 1,348 1,404
OR 466 27,514 23,760
Malheur 390 5,074 4,797
Other OR 490 22,440 18,963
PA 240 3,780 4,080
RI 265 248 239
SD 190 1,540 988
uT 240 1,590 1,224
WA 550 88,920 80,850
wr 335 25,740 27,135
wy 260 476 390
Total -5 1,244.6 334 425,525 401,879
us -3 1,424.1 323 467,924 442,400

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ MI and MN summer potatoes included with fall potatoes in 1994,

3/ The first forecast of fall potato production will be released on
November 12, 1996.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 A-19 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1995 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

: Area Harvested : Yield Production
State
1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bushels

AL : 80 80 36.0 39.0 45.0 2,880 3,600
AZ : 23 18 80.0 95.0 88.0 1,840 1,584
AR : 1,000 1,240 47.0 48.0 52.0 47,000 64,480
CA : 425 570 61.0 75.0 70.0 25,925 39,900
co : 2,700 2,300 38.0 30.0 31.0 102,600 71,300
DE 3 68 78 64.0 65.0 57.0 4,352 4,446
FL 3 12 10 32.0 35.0 38.0 384 380
GA 3 300 350 38.0 45.0 47.0 11,400 16,450
ID 3 770 850° 76.0 80.0 80.0 58,520 68,000
IL > 1,390 1,100 49.0 41.0 41.0 68,110 45,100
IN : 660 720 60.0 47.0 42.0 39,600 30,240
IA : 35 55 35.0 40.0 40.0 1,225 2,200
KS : 11,000 8,800 26.0 22.0 27.0 286,000 237,600
KY : 460 530 53.0 50.0 53.0 24,380 28,0390
LA : 80 130 36.0 34.0 43.0 2,880 5,590
MD : 225 231 64.0 60.0 54.0 14,400 12,474
MI : 620 650 60.0 43.0 43.0 37,200 27,950
MN : 33 32 33.0 35.0 35.0 1,089 1,120
MS : 165 220 38.0 41.0 48.0 6,270 10,560
MO > 1,230 1,300 39.0 35.0 39.0 47,970 50,700
MT : 1,370 2,050 40.0 40.0 40.0 54,800 82,000
NE : 2,100 2,150 41.0 31.0 31.0 86,100 66,650
NV : 4 9 100.0 100.0 105.0 400 945
NJ 3 32 38 57.0 47.0 50.0 1,824 1,900
NM 2 150 125 22.0 33.0 33.0 3,300 4,125
NY : 125 150 55.0 52.0 52.0 6,875 7,800
Nc : 640 590 44.0 47.0 45.0 28,160 26,550
ND : 34 ss 27.0 32.0 29.0 918 1,595
OH : 1,210 1,350 61.0 50.0 44.0 73,810 59,400
OK : 5,200 4,900 21.0 19.0 19.0 109,200 93,100
OR : 825 850 70.0 73.0 72.0 57,750 61,200
PA : 185 190 55.0 54.0 55.0 10,175 10,450
sc 3 280 270 32.0 45.0 48.0 8,960 12,960
SD > 1,520 1,650 37.0 30.0 32.0 56,240 52,800
TN 3 340 430 47.0 44.0 44.0 15,980 18,920
TX > 2,800 2,900 27.0 24.0 23.0 75,600 66,700
UT 3 140 145 50.0 40.0 40.0 7,000 5,800
VA 3 275 280 64.0 52.0 55.0 17,600 15,400
WA > 2,150 2,350 62.0 66.0 69.0 133,300 162,150
wv 2 12 11 52.0 52.0 52.0 624 572
wi : 135 125 58.0 50.0 50.0 7,830 6,250
wy : 190 215 36.0 26.0 27.0 6,840 5,805
us : 40,993 40,097 37.7 36.1 37.0 1,547,311 1, 484, 836
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1996 A-9 NASS, USDA


Planting delays and the need to replant some row crops forced producers in the
Corn Belt to choose between planting corn later than normal or switching to
alternative crops. Weed growth was accelerated in the Midwest by wet fields
that prevented producers from cultivating and spraying herbicides. In the
northern Great Plains, late-season planting progressed rapidly in early June,
but remained behind normal. In the Southwest, the prolonged drought lowered
crop conditions and stressed crops. Isolated thunderstorms in New Mexico
brought more danger from lightning-created fires than moisture. The prolonged
cool, damp weather in the Midwest combined with thin wheat stands to raise wheat
producers’ concerns about weed and disease problems. Corn planting neared
completion in early June, slightly behind normal. Prolonged wet, cool weather
yellowed and slowed corn development in the western Corn Belt. The continued
dry weather in the Southwest slowed cotton planting and caused heat stress in
some cotton fields.

By mid-June, rains across the eastern Corn Belt left most fields too wet for
field activity. Planting progress remained behind schedule in the Ohio Valley
where, for the second week in a row, only 1 to 2 days were suitable for
fieldwork. Fields remained wet across the Corn Belt despite warmer weather,
preventing producers from completing corn planting. Corn producers replanted
some fields around the wet spots. In the Corn Belt, warm weather was needed for
crop development to get back on schedule. Thunderstorms across the Delta slowed
the wheat harvest. Drier fields allowed herbicide application and weed control
in the Southeastern States. In the Southwest, scattered rain was offset by
above-normal temperatures.

Later in the month, heavy rains across the western and northern Corn Belt caused
localized flooding and ponding. Farmers in the Midwest who completed planting
were deterred from cultivating and spraying for weed control. Hot weather in
the middie Mississippi and Ohio Valleys pushed crop development and helped dry
fields. In the Dakotas, warmer weather boosted crop development and allowed
planting to proceed ahead of normal. Hot, humid weather over the Southeast
lowered soil moisture levels.

The end of June brought long-awaited warm, sunny weather across the Central
States that dried fields and allowed farmers to complete row crop planting. The
warmer weather at month's end stimulated crop development in the Corn Belt that
had been suppressed by the persistent cool, wet spring. In the Midwest, the
favorable weather accelerated plant growth and left some corn fields too tall to
cultivate for weed control. Over the northern Great Plains, hot, humid weather
stimulated crop development, but increased grasshopper populations. Month's end
brought widespread rains and some relief to drought-stricken farmers and
ranchers in the Southwest. June ended with the Nation's winter wheat harvest
nearing the halfway mark, slightly behind schedule. Winter wheat condition
improved slightly during June and finished the month mostly fair to good. By
the end of June, soybean planting neared completion. Corn grew rapidly in the
Midwest at month's end due to warm, sunny weather and favorable soil moisture,
with light insect pressure reported. As June concluded, uneven corn
development was apparent from the wet spring conditions that delayed planting
and required significant replanting.

Oats: Oat production for 1996 is forecast at 155 million bushels, down

4 percent from last year. If realized, this would be the lowest oat
production since records were first kept in 1866. The forecasted yield, at
58.0 bushels per acre, is up 3.3 bushels from last year’s 54.7 bushels. Area
harvested and to be harvested, at 2.67 million acres, is down 10 percent from
the 2.96 million harvested in 1995. This also would be the lowest oats acreage
harvested for grain on record.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-5 NASS, USDA


NEN National

Crop Ca
Production United States

Service
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released July 12, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS),
Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information
on “Crop Production” call at (202) 720-2127, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about
NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-
727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The “Crop Production” U.S. Summary is
available on AutoFax, see the subscription page (202-720-2000, report 1150).
Forecasts refer to July 1, 1996.

Wheat Production up 4 Percent

All wheat production for 1996 is forecast at 2.26 billion bushels, up 4 percent
from 1995. U.S. yields are expected to average 35.9 bushels per acre, up

0.1 bushels per acre from a year ago. Grain area totals 63.1 million acres, up
4 percent from last season.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.48 billion bushels. This is up

8 percent from June 1, but down 4 percent from 1995. Based on July 1
conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 37.0 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels
per acre from the last forecast, but 0.7 bushels per acre less than last year.
Grain area totals 40.1 million acres, down 2 percent from 1995.

Total Hard Red production is up substantially from last month. Increased area
and yields are the reason. Soft Red production is also up, primarily due to

acreage increases. A lower Oregon yield, coupled with the lower percentage of
White wheat in’ Washington, has White Winter production down from last month.

Other spring wheat production is forecast at 655 million bushels, up 22 percent
from 1995. This production would be the second highest on record. Based on
July 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 33.5 bushels per acre, up

1.3 bushels per acre from last year. Grain area totals 19.6 million acres, up
18 percent from last season. Expectations are for yields above last year in the
Dakotas and Minnesota, but lower in Montana. However, Montana’s forecasted
production is at a record high level because of harvested area.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 123 million bushels, up 21 percent from
1995, and the highest level since 1982. Based on July 1 conditions, the U.S.
yield is forecast at 35.7 bushels per acre, up 5.2 bushels per acre from last
year. Grain area totals 3.46 million acres, up 3 percent from last season.

Cr Pr 2-2 (7-96)


Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1994-1995
and Forecasted July 1, 1996 1/

Spring 2/

1,000 Bushels

1994 : 971,161 434,208 256,574 515,315 96,747 46,976 2,320,981
1995 : 824,492 449,616 273,203 475,328 102,280 60,620 2,185,539

1996 : 747,581 436,367 300,888 589,071 123,452 65,908 2,263,267

1/ Wheat class’estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the
previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season.

2/ Based on Washington's 1996 Wheat Variety survey, the percent of white wheat
has shifted from 95 percent White Winter in 1995 to 90 percent. White
Spring changed from 75 percent to 67 percent.

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,
State, and United States, 1995 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

--- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds --

Class 1, Flue-cured
Type 11, Old Belts

NC : 68,000 70,000 1,920 2,200 130,560 154,000

VA : 34,000 35,000 1,935 2,200 65,790 77,000

us : 102,000 105,000 1,925 2,200 196,350 231,000
Type 12, Eastern NC

Belt 3

NC : 151,000 156,000 1,860 2,300 280,860 358,800
Type 13, NC Border &

sc Belt 2

NC : 34,000 36,000 1,845 2,150 62,730 77,400

sc : 50,000 50,000 2,100 2,200 105,000 110,000

us : 84,000 86,000 1,997 2,179 167,730 187,400
Type 14, GA-FL Belt

FL H 7,200 7,300 2,455 2,480 17,676 18,104

GA : 42,000 46,000 2,000 2,200 84,000 101,200

us : 49,200 53,300 2,067 2,238 101,676 119,304
Total 11-14 : 386,200 400,300 1,933 2,240 746,616 896,504
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1996 A-12 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Head Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting winter wheat
objective yield surveys in 10 States during 1996. Randomly selected plots in
winter wheat fields are visited monthly from May trough harvest to obtain
specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived actual field
counts and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board.

Winter Wheat: Heads per Square Foot,
Selected States, 1992-96 1/ 2/

co JULY : 32.9 40.0 41.6 52.9 33.5
Final : 33.3 39.7 41.6 51.6

ID JULY 3/ : 37.8 38,2 43.4 44.6
Final : 37.7 40.2 42.6 44.0

IL JULY : 41.0 46.8 45.8 56.4 40.2
Final : 41.0 46.0 45.8 56.4

KS JULY : 41.3 50,2 49.6 54.5 35.5
Final 2 41.3 49.1 49.6 55.0

MO. SULY : 38.5 44.9 39.4 49.8 42.8
Final : 38.5 44.7 39.4 49.8

MT JULY : 26.1 34.6 31.0 31.0 29.3
Final : 26.8 3513 31.4 33.7

NE JULY : 40.4 50.4 45.7 60.3 42.9
Final : 40.4 4918 45.9 58.8

OH = JULY 42. 43.1 47.1 53.9 43.1
Final ADL 428 47.1 52.9

OK JULY : 39.2 45.1 48.0 43.4 32.5
Final : 39.2 45.1 48.0 43.4

OR JULY 3/ : 25.8 31.0 35.2 31.4
Final 1 25.8 30.2 34.8 31.9

sD JULY 3/ : 37.5 48.9 39.4 53.6
Final : 38.1 18.8 38.1 51.0

TX JULY : 3747 35.3 35.6 37.9 32.2
Final : 377 35.4 35.8 38.2

WA JULY : 29.7 31.4 32.0 29.3 38.1
Pinal : 29.4 30.7 31.9 29.3

1/ Based on the number of heads counted in plots selected for the objective
yield survey.

2/ Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains Summary" in
September.

3/ No longer included in the objective yield program beginning with 1996.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 A-11 NASS, USDA



Reliability of July 1 Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between June 24 and July 2 to gather information on expected
yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey for winter wheat was conducted
in 10 States that accounted for 67 percent of the 1995 production. Plots were
revisited to make counts and harvest mature samples. In late fields, counts
such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were
made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. A 5-year
historical head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads
can be clipped, threshed, and weighed. The number of heads times the weight of
the heads in a sample plot can then be expanded to an estimate of yield per
acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield.
The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches maturity and or
harvested on the final visit.

The farm operator survey included a sample of nearly 16,000 producers
representing all major production areas. These producers were selected from an
earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable yield on their
operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to
provide indications of average yields as the season progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness
and consistency with historical estimates. The indications were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and
previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the
survey indications and the State analysis to prepare the published July 1
forecasts.

Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead,

“anew forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season, End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the
marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks,
production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then
made if data relationships warrant changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 winter

wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a
statistical measure based on past performance, iS computed. This is done by
expressing the deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1976-1995 20-year period; the square root of the
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The “Root Mean Square Error“ for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is
2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production
forecast of 1.48 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate
by more than 2.0 percent or approximately 30 million bushels. Chances are

9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
3.5 percent or approximately 52 million bushels. Differences between the July 1
winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past

10 years have averaged 19 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 61 million
bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 4 times and
above 6 times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this
year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-12 NASS, USDA


recovered with secondary growth and may not suffer substantial loss. Harvest of
early fields started in late June and early July in the Columbia and Umatilla
Basins of Washington and Oregon. Colorado's potatoes went in early and are in
excellent condition in the San Luis Valley.

Across the Northern and Mid-Western States, wet soils kept farmers out of the
fields early but periods of warm and hot weather helped get planting done. Soil
moisture is adequate and should sustain good potato growth with some spots in
Michigan too wet.

Acreage is down in Eastern States but crop progress is favorable. Plantings are
estimated at 126,600 acres, down 2 percent from last year and 3 percent below
1994. Maine continued to lose potato acreage with a 1 percent decline this
year. Pennsylvania potato acreage dropped 6 percent while New York acreage
remained the same as last year. Rhode Island's planted area dropped 100 acres
while Massachusetts dropped 15 percent.

Central States’ growers planted an estimated 383,100 acres of fall potatoes this
year, up 2 percent from last year and 3 percent above 1994. North Dakota led
the increases with a 7 percent increase from last year. Minnesota acreage
climbed 2 percent as both States responded to net increases in processing
capacity. Indiana and Nebraska fall potato acreage rose 4 percent while
Wisconsin and South Dakota remained the same as last year. Michigan acreage is
down 5 percent and Ohio dropped 2 percent.

Western States growers have planted 751,500 acres of fall potatoes in 1996, up
4 percent from a year ago and 2 percent above two years ago. Acreage in
Washington and Oregon jumped 11 and 14 percent, respectively. Planting of
Pacific Northwest acreage started late but finished a week or two earlier than
last year. Idaho acreage increased 3 percent, but frost on June 19 caused some
delays in crop development. Colorado's fall potato acreage moved up

1 percent, Montana’s rose 3 percent, and Nevada gained 5 percent from a year
ago. Utah and Wyoming potato acreage fell sharply, California dropped

12 percent, and New Mexico slipped 2 percent.

Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 18.9 million cwt,

up 6 percent from last year and 9 percent above comparable
States in 1994. Farmers expect to harvest 76,800 acres during the summer
season, a gain of 9 percent from a year ago and 7 percent above two years ago.
The average yield, forecast at 246 cwt per acre, is down 7 cwt from last year
but 4 cwt above 1994. Planted area of 79,600 acres is up 10 percent.

The Atlantic Coast States are looking at a good summer potato crop with yields
above average. Harvest is underway and ahead of last year in North Carolina.
Across the South and into Texas, potatoes have been hurt by hot, dry weather and
hailstorms. Harvest is active but yields are poor. New Mexico’s growers expect
a good crop, with harvest coming in mid-July. Colorado and Nebraska growers are
looking at record high summer yields, if growing conditions remain good.

Harvest in Missouri's southeast section is half done, while digging has not
started in the northwest counties. Recent hot weather has helped Iowa and
Illinois potatoes catch up after a slow, wet start. California's harvest is
underway on early fields under favorable weather.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 . B-11 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994-95 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

Area Harvested Production

1995 : 1996

-- 1,000 Acres -- - Bushels -- - 1,000 Bushels -
“AL 3 80 80 36.0 45.0 4,560 2,880 3,600
AZ : 122 177 84.9 94.3 11,186 10,354 16,689
AR 3 1,000 1,240 47.0 52.0 40,480 47,000 64,480
cA 8 493 708 66.4 75.8 44,365 32,725 53,700
co 2 2,738 2,368 38.4 32.1 79,734 105,260 76,060
DE : 68 78 64.0 57.0 3,780 4,352 4,446
FL 3 12 10 32.0 38.0 630 384 380
GA : 300 350 38.0 47.0 20,400 11,400 16,450
ID : 1,330 1,550 77.7 77.7 100,280 103,320 120,500
IL : 1,390 1,100 49.0 41.0 50,400 68,110 45,100
IN : 660 720 60.0 42.0 38,430 39,600 30,240
IA 3 35 55 35.0 40.0 2,115 1,225 2,200
KS : 11,000 8,800 26.0 27.0 433,200 286,000 237,600
KY : 460 530 53.0 53.0 25,200 24,380 28,090
LA : 80 130 36.0 43.0 2,590 2,880 5,590
MD : 225 231 64.0 54.0 12,100 14,400 12,474
MI : 620 650 60.0 43.0 30,740 37,200 27,950
MN : 2,245 2,442 32.0 33.0 71,348 71,849 80,670
MS 3 165 220 38.0 48.0 6,400 6,270 10,560
MO : 1,230 1,300 39.0 39.0 50,400 47,970 50,700
MT : 5,435 6,375 36.0 35.1 170,590 195,750 223,825
NE : 2,100 2,150 41.0 31.0 71,400 86,100 66,650
NV : 10 19 85.0 86.6 670 850 1,645
NJ H 32 38 57.0 50.0 1,344 1,824 1,900
NM 3 150 125 22.0 33.0 5,520 3,300 4,125
NY : 125 150 55.0 52.0 6,095 6,875 7,800
NC 2 640 590 44.0 45.0 30,380 28,160 26,550
ND > 11,114 12,455 27.0 30.0 356,404 300,078 373,595
OH : 1,210 1,350 61.0 44.0 68,440 73,810 59,400
OK 2 5,200 4,900 21.0 19.0 143,100 109,200 93,100
OR 3 939 975 67.8 69.7 58,580 63,678 67,950
PA 2 185 190 55.0 55.0 7,920 10,175 10,450
sc 3 280 270 32.0 48.0 18,000 8,960 12,960
sD : 2,752 3,874 33.0 31.4 95,278 90,736 121,672
TN : 340 430 47.0 44.0 15,000 15,980 18,920
TX : 2,800 2,900 27.0 23.0 75,400 75,600 66,700
ur : 166 173 53.9 44.0 7,012 8,950 7,620
VA : 275 280 64.0 55.0 14,000 17,600 15,400
WA : 2,595 2,745 59.3 63.6 134,000 153,770 181,505
Ww BS 12 11 52.0 52.0 550 624 572
WI : 143 135 56.4 48.9 7,940 8,070 6,600
wy : 215 244 36.7 28.1 5,020 7,890 6,849
US 60,971 63,118 35.8 35.9 320,981 2,185,539 2,263,267

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 A-8 NASS, USDA



DROUGHT SEVERITY

(LONG TERM PALMER)
js duly 6, 1996 UPDATED BIWEEKLY
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mn Os o
2 MOIST Ee"
MOIST; \ MOIST
Fi ya
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NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY pasexton protmrary resorts

Drought severity index (Palmer):

Drought Severity

Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal

dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and

reflects long term moisture runoff,

evaportranspiration.

recharge,

and deep percolation,

as well as

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or

wetness on water sensitive economies;

designating disaster areas of drought or

wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in

aquifers,

reservoirs,

and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production

July 1996

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA



The Georgia peach crop forecast, at 6 million pounds, is down 20 percent from
June 1 and down 96 percent from last year’s crop of 160 million pounds. Just as
in South Carolina, extensive freeze damage nearly destroyed the 1996 Georgia
peach crop. Harvest is about 70 percent complete with late varieties beginning
to mature. As of June 30, Georgia showed 87 percent of the crop in very poor
condition,

Idaho, Oregon, and Utah expect larger crops while Washington may produce the
smallest crop since 1965. Pennsylvania and New Jersey crop prospects are
favorable. Growers reported a good bloom, heavy set, and above average fruit
size and quality.

Grapes: California’s all grape production is forecast at 5.27 million tons,
slightly above production for the previous two years.

The forecast for raisin type varieties is 2.25 million tons, nearly equaling
last year’s total. There is no acreage in the Raisin Industry Diversion program
(RID) this year. Last year 25,000 acres were enrolled. Recent hot weather
helped the maturity of the raisin grape crop. Picking for fresh use of the
Thompson Seedless variety was virtually complete by July 1 in the Coachella
Valley and just beginning in the southern San Joaquin Valley.

Table grape production is forecast at 720,000 tons, less than 1 percent above
1995 and 20 percent more than 1994. Picking neared completion in the Coachella
Valley and has just began in the San Joaquin Valley. Good quality is reported.

Wine varieties are expected to produce 2.30 million tons, an increase of
1 percent over last year. The crop is maturing well with growers reporting good

quality.

Apricots: The final forecast for the 1996 apricot crop is 73,300 tons, up
25 percent from last year's reduced crop.

California’s apricot crop is forecast at 70,000 tons, unchanged from the June 1
forecast but up 35 percent from last year’s near-record low crop of 52,000 tons.
Warm winter temperatures did not provide an adequate number of chill hours to
ensure proper crop set. Even though a short crop is expected, excellent fruit
quality and average sizing have been reported.

The Utah apricot crop is expected to rebound from last season’s crop failure.
Production in Utah is forecast at 300 tons, 11 percent above the 5-year average
of 270 tons. Washington's apricot production is forecast at 3,000 tons, down
54 percent from 1995, and, if realized, the lowest level since 1989. A severe
cold snap this winter slashed crop potential, especially in the Yakima area.

Walnuts: The 1996 California walnut production is 235,000 tons on

169,000 bearing acres. This is a slight increase over the 1995 crop
of 234,000 tons. Expectations are for above average production from early
season varieties, while mid and late season varieties are expected to produce an
average crop. Heavy drop resulted from this winter’s low chilling hours, along
with rains received in May.

Almonds: California's 1996 almond production is forecast at 530 million meat
pounds, up 2 percent from the May forecast and up 43 percent from last

year’s crop. This forecast is based on an estimated bearing acreage of

410,000 acres. Production from the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 250 million

meat pounds, up 52 percent from last season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-8 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1995 and Forecasted July 1, 1996
(Domestic Units)

1,000 Acres

Oats : 6,336 4,608 2,959 2,673
Barley : 6,689 7,134 6,277 6,761
All Wheat 69,177 75,624 60,971 63,118
Winter 48,726 52,053 40,993 40,097
Durum 3,436 3,565 3,356 3,456
Other Spring 17,015 20,006 16,622 19,565
Potatoes
Winter 1/ 13.3 13.6 11.9 13.5
Spring 1/ 88.3 91.9 84.3 89.2
Summer 72.4 79.6 70.6 76.8
Fall 1,223.1 1,261.2 1,204.5 1,244.6
Total 1,397.4 1,446.3 1,371.3 1,424.1
All Tobacco 663.1 724.2
Flue-cured
Types 11-14 386.2 400.3

1/ Estimates for current month carried forward from an earlier forecast.

Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1995 and Forecasted July 1, 1996
(Domestic Units)

Oats 58.0 161,847 154,968
Barley 58.2 359,102 393,592
All Wheat 35.9 2,185,539 2,263,267
Winter 37.0 1,547,311 1,369,861 1,484,836
Durum 35.7 102,280 123,452
Other Spring 33.5 535,948 654,979
Potatoes
Winter 1/ 215 2,473 2,907
Spring 1/ 238 20,193 21,197
Summer 246 17,855 18,876
Fall 401,879
Total 442,400
All Tobacco 1,268,494
Flue-cured
Types 11-14 2,240 746,616 896,504
Peaches 2,301,300 1,988,400
Apricots (CA) 58.5 73.3
Dried Prunes (CA) 181.0 200.0
Almonds (CA) 2/ 370,000 520,000 530,000
Walnuts (CA) 234.0 235.0

1/ Estimates for current month carried forward from an earlier forecast.
2/ June 1 estimate carried forward from the May 1 forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 A-4 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted July 1, 1996 1/
Utilized Production Utilized Production
Boxes Ton Equivalent

Crop and State

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96 1995-96

1,000 Boxes 2/ -- 1,000 Tons -
Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/ :
AZ : 700 400 700 26 15 26
CA : 36,600 35,000 40,000 1,372 1,313 1,500
FL : 107,300 119,700 121,200 4,829 5,387 5,454
TX 4/ : 480 950 830 21 40 35
us : 145,080 156,050 162,730 6,248 6,755 7,015
Valencia :
AZ z 1,200 650 950 45 24 36
CA : 27,000 26,000 28,000 1,013 976 1,050
FL : 67,100 85,700 82,000 3,020 3,857 3,690
TX 4/ : 70 105 110 3 4 5
us : 95,370 112,455 111,060 4,081 4,861 4,781
All :
AZ : 1,900 1,050 1,650 71 39 62
CA : 63,600 61,000 68,000 2,385 2,289 2,550
FL : 174,400 205,400 203,200 7,849 9,244 9,144
TX 4/ 2 550 1,055 940 24 44 40
us : 240,450 268,505 273,790 10,329 11,616 11,796
Temples :
FL : 2,250 2,550 2,150 101 114 97
Grapefruit :
White Seedless :
FL : 24,500 25,700 23,200 1,042 1,092 986
Colored Seedless :
FL : 25,500 28,700 28,100 1,084 1,220 1,194
Other :
FL Hy 1,050 1,300 1,050 45 55 45
All 3
AZ : 1,750 1,400 1,200 59 47 40
CA 5/ :
Desert : 3,400 3,300 114 111
Other Areas : 5,900 6,000 197 201
Total r 9,300 9,300 9,500 311 312 318
FL : 51,050 55,700 52,350 2,171 2,367 2,225
TX 4/ z 3,000 4,650 4,550 120 186 182
US : 65,100 71,050 67,600 2,661 2,912 2,765
Tangerines 3
AZ : 1,000 650 1,000 37 25 38
CA 4/ : 2,300 2,200 2,500 86 82 94
FL 2 4,100 3,550 4,500 195 168 214
US z 7,400 6,400 8,000 318 275 346
Lemons 2
AZ : 5,200 3,600 5,100 197 137 194
CA : 20,700 20,500 21,000 7187 779 798
US : 25,900 24,100 26,100 984 916 992
Tangelos :
FL : 3,350 3,150 2,450 150 142 110
K-Early Citrus :
FL : 210 120 160 9 5 7
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1996 A-15 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group,
State, and United States, 1995-96

Seasonal Group

Seasonal Group :
and State 3 1995

and State 1995
1,000 Acres 1,000
Winter 1/ Fall
CA 5.0 5.7 cA : 13.0
PL 8.3 7.9 co 3 77.0
Total 13.3 13.6 ID : 400.0
10 SW Co 3 27.0
Spring 1/ Other ID : 373.0
AL 2.6 2.0 IN 2 5.0
AZ 6.5 9.0 ME : 78.0
cA 18.0 20.1 MA : 3.3
FL 38.5 37.5 MI 3 55.0
Hastings : 28.5 28.0 MN : 83.0
Other FL 2 10.0 9.5 MT : 9.8
NC 3 17.5 16.5 NE 3 12.0
TX 5.2 6.8 NV : 7.6
Total 88.3 91.9 NM : 6.3
NY : 29.0
Summer ND : 125.0
AL 6.8 6.8: OH : 5.5
CA 5.5 5.5: OR 3 52.0
co 9.2 9.9 Malheur 3 12.5
DE 6.0 6.0 Other OR 3 39.5
IL 5.6 7.2 PA : 18.0
IA 1.6 1.5 RI z 0.9
MD 1.5 2.0 sD : 6.0
MO 7.1 7.8 UT 3 5.2
NE 4.5 5.6 WA . 3 147.0
No 2.7 2.6 wi : 83.0
NM 4.2 3.9 WY z 1.5
NC 1.4 1.3 :
TX 7.3 0.5 Total 1,223.1
VA 9.0 9.0
Total 72.4 9.6 US

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statis
July 1996 A-17

tics Board
NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Production, United States,
1995 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

: 1995 : 1996 : 1996

Crop Year 1994-95 1995-96 1995~96
1,000 Tons
Citrus Fruits 1/

Oranges 11,616 11,749 11,796
Grapefruit 2,912 2,758 2,765
Lemons 2/ 916 988 992
Tangerines 275 344 346
Temples (FL) 114 97 97
Tangelos (FL) 142 110 110
K-Early Citrus (FL) 5 7 7

Metric Tons

Oranges 10,537,860 10,658,510 10,701,150
Grapefruit : 2,641,720 2,502,020 2,508,370
Lemons 2/ : 830,980 896,300 899,930
Tangerines : 249,480 312,070 313,890
Temples (FL) $ 103,420 88,000 88,000
Tangelos (FL) 128,820 99,790 99,790
K-Early Citrus (FL) 4,540 6,350 6,350

1/ Crop year begins with the bloom of the first year and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.
2/ dune 1 estimate carried forward from the April 1 forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 A-3 NASS, USDA


Forecasted yields in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota increased from
last year. Good growing conditions in all three States since planting have
helped the crop to progress steadily. Yield in Wisconsin remains unchanged from
a year ago. In Iowa, weather recently turned hot and dry which could have been
a factor in the yield decrease from 1995.

Barley: Barley production is forecast at 394 million bushels, up 10 percent

from 1995 and 5 percent from 1994. Yields are expected to average
58.2 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from last year. Area harvested and to be
harvested, at 6.76 million acres, is 8 percent above the 6.28 million acres
harvested last year.

Forecasted yields in North Dakota and Minnesota increased over 1995. Since
completion of planting, weather conditions in North Dakota and Minnesota have
been favorable for crop development. Montana yield remained unchanged from a
year ago. Yields in Idaho and Washington decreased from last year. Frost
struck parts of Idaho in June, but the extent of the damage is yet unknown.

Winter Wheat: Area for grain harvest this year is forecast at 40.1 million

acres, unchanged from the June 28 “Acreage” report, but down
2 percent from 1995. Harvesting progress trailed average in the 19 major
producing States as of June 30.

Idaho and Oregon growers are still expecting record-high yields. Localized
frosts damaged some of Oregon’s wheat. Forecasted head counts from Washington's
Objective Yield survey are the highest since 1981 while forecasted head weight
is about average. If weather holds, Michigan growers expect to start harvesting
at mid-month.

Hard Red Winter Objective Yield head counts are still the lowest since 1989 in
Kansas and Texas. Forecasted head weights are at average levels in Kansas, but
below average in Texas. Oklahoma head counts are the lowest in nearly 30 years;
head weights are below average. Forecasted head counts in Colorado and Nebraska
improved from last month but are still below average. The forecasted head
weights are above average in Colorado. Montana forecasted populations are below
average; head weight forecasts are about average.

Harvested yields have been much better than expected in the Southeast and Delta
States. The harvests in Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi finished around
July 1. Record-high yields were recorded in Louisiana and Mississippi. The
Georgia harvest is nearly finished, Harvest is in full swing in southern
Indiana; head scab and weeds have been a problem. Objective Yield head counts
were up from last month in Illinois and in Missouri, but down in Ohio.
Forecasted weight per head is below average for Ohio and about average in the
other two states.

Durum Wheat: The U.S. area for grain harvest is forecast at 3.46 million acres,
up 3 percent from 1995.

Arizona's harvest was virtually complete by July 4 and yields were a little
better than forecast. This, coupled with larger area for harvest, has the
production at the highest level since 1981. California’s Imperial valley
harvest was all but done by the end of June; the San Joaquin Valley harvest was
nearing completion. To date, Montana’s durum region has had timely rainfall.

As of June 30, 5 percent of the North Dakota crop was headed. This is a little
ahead of last year, but well behind the average of 17 percent. Soil moisture is
short in the North Dakota durum area, but timely rains have the crop rated in
mostly good condition.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-6 NASS, USDA


All orange production is forecast at 11.80 million tons, up less than one
percent from last month and 2 percent above last season. This year’s crop is the
second largest on record, only 36,000 tons below the 11.83 million tons produced
in the 1979-80 season. Florida's forecast is 203.2 million boxes (9.14 million
tons), up less than one percent from June’s forecast but down 1 percent from
last season. The Valencia forecast increased one million boxes to 82.0 million
boxes (3.69 million tons), down 4 percent from a year ago. Early and mid-season
varieties remained at 121.2 million boxes (5.45 million tons), a record high.
California's orange production was unchanged from April. It remained at

68.0 million boxes (2.55 million tons), 11 percent above last season. Early,
mid-season, and Navel varieties are expected to produce 40.0 million boxes
(1.50 million tons), 14 percent more than last season. Valencia production is
forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.05 million tons), 8 percent more than 1994-95.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1995-96 season is
1.52 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This final yield for all fruit used
in FCOJ is unchanged from last month and up from the final 1994-95 yield of

1.50 gallons per box. The yield for early and mid-season varieties was final in
March at 1.45 gallons per box, up from last year’s 1.44 gallons per box. The
Valencia crop yielded 1.67 gallons per box, unchanged from last month's forecast
but up from 1.58 gallons per box a year ago. The final yield is reported by
the Florida Citrus Processors Association.

— —_ _ —

This report was approved on July 12, 1996, by the Secretary of Agriculture and
the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board.

ha {ZA ihn

Y skcretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Dan Glickman Rich Allen

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1996 A-2 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on

August 12, 1996.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

Cc. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Kevin Barnes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice (202) 720-7369
Dan Kerestes - Barley, Corn, Oats, (202) 720-9526
Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Tobacco, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Stephen Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions (202) 720-4285
Roger Latham - Cotton (202) 720-5944
Linda McMillan - Nuts, Grapes (202) 720-4215
Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-2157
Barbara Rater - Noncitrus Fruits, Peanuts (202) 720-7688
Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits, Maple Syrup (202) 720-5412
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-14 NASS, USDA


The average nut set per tree is 5,482, up 45 percent from 1995. The Nonpareil
average nut set is 4,963, an increase of 29 percent over the previous year’s
set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.85 grams, down
3 percent from last year. A total of 97.0 percent of the nuts sampled were
sound.

Statewide, bloom reports varied from good to excellent. Cold weather and
intermittent rain storms during February and March hampered pollination.

Grapefruit: The final forecast of the 1995-96 U.S. grapefruit crop is

2.77 million tons, up slightly from last month but down 5 percent
from last season. Florida's grapefruit forecast was 52.4 million boxes
2.23 million tons), slightly lower than last month and 6 percent below last
season. The Florida white seedless grapefruit forecast is 23.2 million boxes
(986,000 tons), unchanged from June but 10 percent less than 1994-95. The
colored seedless forecast is 28.1 million boxes (1.19 million tons), 1 percent
below last month and 2 percent below a year ago. The seedy grapefruit crop is
expected to be 1.05 million boxes (45,000 tons), unchanged from last month but
19 percent below last year.

California’s forecast, at 9.50 million boxes (318,000 tons), was 6 percent
higher than the last forecast and 2 percent more than last season’s crop.
Harvest is nearly complete for California's desert area while more northern
regions are continuing to harvest. Although some wind scaring, scale, and
sheepnose have been noted, quality and color were generally good. Arizona’s
forecast remained unchanged from last quarter at 1.20 million boxes

(40,000 tons), 14 percent below last year. Texas’ forecast was carried forward
from June 1 at 4.55 million boxes (182,000 tons), 2 percent lower than the 1994-
95 crop.

Lemons: The 1995-96 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 992,000 tons, slightly more
than the previous forecast of 988,000 tons and 8 percent more than the
1994-95 crop.

California’s forecast for the 1995-96 crop is 21.0 million boxes (798,000 tons),
unchanged from the April forecast but 2 percent more than in 1994-95. Central
Valley grades looked generally good with some grade defects reported such as
scar, botrytis bumps, sunburn, flat sides, bid mite, oil spotting, and picking
injuries. Southern California fruit quality was variable with predominant
colors varying from silver to light green and some running heavy to dark green.
Desert Valley shippers had high eliminations resulting from ridging, coarse
texture, and scarring. Arizona’s lemon crop is expected to be 5.10 million
boxes (194,000 tons), up 2 percent from last quarter and 42 percent more than a
year ago. Western Arizona lemons had problems with heart rot, dieback and
thrip.

Florida Citrus: Citrus groves, trees, and new crop fruit were in very good
condition as a result of the past month's near ideal growing
conditions. Rainfall in all areas was plentiful to surplus, depending on
location. Adequate moisture and warm June temperatures helped generate an
abundance of new growth on trees of all ages. New crop fruit sized well and
droppage abated. Harvest of the 1995-96 season Valencia oranges slowed through
the month. Valencia utilization by the end of June was estimated at
81.2 million boxes. Most oranges picked during June went to processors.
Movement of grapefruit was very slow during the month as harvest was nearly
complete. Harvest of all seedless grapefruit was a little more than

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 B-9 NASS, USDA



Peaches: Total Production by Type, State and United States,
1994-95 and Forecasted July 1, 1996

Total Production

State preteen nee eee n enn 3+ eo 2 oe ne ee nn een nee nnn
1994 1995 1996
Million Pounds
AL 17.0 22.0 1.0
AR 7 8.0 20.0 1.2
CA - Freestone : 634.0 502.0 620.0
co 3 20.0 17.0 17.0
cT 2.2 2.1 3.4
DE 2.6 2.0 2.6
GA 175.0 160.0 6.0
ID 4.0 4.0 7.0
Ib 4.8 13.0 2.0
IN 1/ 5.0 2.0
KS 2 0.5 1.0 0.4
KY 1/ : 6.0 1.5
LA : 4.0 5.0 0.7
MD 2.8 12.0 9.0
MA 1.0 1.2 1.7
MI 15.0 60.0 40.0
MO 5.0 9.0 3.5
No 75.0 70.0 80.0
NY 7.0 11.5 11.5
NC : 33.0 35.0 1.0
OH 1/ 3 5.8 7.0
OK 2/ : 25.0 30.0
OR : 15.5 9.0 11.0
PA 1/ : 90.0 85.0
sc 2 250.0 215.0 20.0
TN : 1.7 10.4 0.4
TX : 20.0 24.0 6.0
uT : 7.4 6.3 6.5
VA : 12.0 26.0 16.0
WA : 41.0 44.0 10.0
wv 1/ : 18.0 15.0
Total Above : 1,383.5 1,436.3 988.4
cA : ;
Clingstone : 1,130.0 865.0 1,000.0
US 2,513.5 2,301.3 1,988.4

1/ No significant commercial production in 1994 due to freeze damage.
2/ No significant commercial production in 1996 due to freeze damage.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1996 A-13 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
the completion of harvest the following year.

2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67,
FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76, tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;
tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

5/ California Desert and Other Areas Grapefruit forecasts combined with Ail
Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96.

!

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1995-96
Month
~- 1,000 Pounds

May 3,765 2,595 2,340 2,935 3,140

June 3,790 2,630 2,425 3,825 3,160

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1996 A-16 NASS, USDA