Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes.
11 Major States, 1994-95 Crop

State : Reds Russets
1994: 1995 : 1994 +: +1995: 1994: 1995
co 5 5 95 95
10 5 5 95 95
ME 1 3 75 70 24 27
MI 3 2 67 73 30 25
MN 25 28 33 24 42 48
NY 100 100
ND 20 20 56 46 24 34
OR 1 2 20 27 79 71
PA 100 100
WA 4 3 15 14 81 83
WI : 10 11 31 25 59 64
11 State Avg. : 6 6 27 26 67 68
1/ Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s)
constituting less than 1 percent of state's total.
Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes,
by State and Total. 1994-95 1/
EEE 1994 Crop "1995 Crop
State: Entered for: | °~~=~——Ss:~S*«C‘ ret. ~«=SSC:~SC*E Mere ‘for
Certification : Certified : Certified Certification

1/ Data supplied by State seed certification officials.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 A-20 NASS, USDA


Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop, State,
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted July 1, 1995

Crop and State pw ee eee e-- ee ee eee e ee eeee eeeeeee
1993 1994 1995
Tons

Grapes Table Type :

CA : 632,000 602,000 640,000
Grapes Wine Type :

CA : 2,397,000 2,265,000 2,300,000
Grapes Raisin Type 1/ :

CA : 2,354,000 2,386,000 2,200,000
All Grapes :

CA : 5,383,000 5,253,000 5,140,000
Apricots :

CA : 89.000 150,000 60,000

UT 2/ : 250 400

WA : 8,100 7,800 7,500

us : 97,350 158.200 67,500
Walnuts 3/ :

CA : 260,000 232.000 245,000

1,000 Pounds

Almonds (Shelled Basis) 3/
CA

730,000

1/ Fresh Basis.

2/ No significant production in 1995 due to frost damage.
3/ Utilized production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 A-14 NASS, USDA


June Weather Summary: Rainfall became less organized across the Central United

States. allowing most rivers to return to their channels
by mid-month. Slightly farther south, heavy rain struck Oklahoma and Kansas
twice before June 10, and again on June 23-24 and 28-29, hindering winter wheat
crop development, promoting disease. and hampering harvest activities. Wet
weather also persisted from the central Appalachians to Florida, and from
California to the northern and central Rockies. In contrast. drier-than-normal
weather prevailed in the western and central Gulf Coast region. and in most
areas from the western Corn Belt to New England. Little or no rain fell in
parts of the Southwest.

In the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. a mid- to late-month heat wave broke
numerous records, and pushed monthly temperatures 2 to 7 degrees F above normal.
Across the northern Corn Belt, the hot, breezy weather dried and crusted
topsoils, but showers and cooler weather returned by month’s end. In the
Southeast, where temperatures were uniformly near normal, conditions varied from
dry and warm in the central Gulf Coast States. to wet and humid in the southern
Middle Atlantic region. The remnants of Hurricane Allison briefly dumped heavy
rain from western Florida to eastern North Carolina on June 5-6. Farther west,
areas from the Southwest to the central High Plains observed abnormally cool
weather for the third consecutive month, as temperatures ranged from 2 to

6 degrees F below normal.

On June 8, temperatures dipped below freezing in Idaho’s Snake River Plain. with
a June record noted by Pocatello (28 degrees F), and a record-late last freeze
by Boise (31 degrees F). Two days later, 2.1 inches of snow blanketed Casper,
WY. Meanwhile, a 5-week hot spell ended in the Southeast, but not before
temperatures reached 101 degrees F in Montgomery, AL and 100 degrees F in
Jacksonville, FL on June 10. At mid-month, a powerful storm struck the West,
delivering out-of-season precipitation to California, including 0.66 inches in
Fresno and 0.60 inches in Los Angeles. East of the system, warm, dry weather
overspread the central Plains and western Corn Belt, ending a 9-week spell of
excessively cool, wet weather.

Rainfall intensified over the Southeast after June 18, resulting in local
flooding along the east slopes of the central Appalachians and in southern
Florida. Monthly totals included 10.18 inches (319 percent of normal) in
Roanoke, VA and 20.25 inches (220 percent of normal) in Miami, FL.

Heat arrived in the Great Lakes States on June 16, where International Falls, MN
observed its first of seven consecutive daily records, including all-time highs
of 99 degrees F on June 17-18. Marquette. MI notched eight daily records in a
row (June 16-23) en route to a record-warm June (66.3 degrees F). As heat
spread eastward, June records were established on the 19th in Alpena. MI

(103 degrees F). Burlington, VT (100 degrees F), and Muskegon, MI (98 degrees
F).

Toward month’s end. heat overspread the West, while a cool airmass swung into
the North-Central States. The month ended with five consecutive daily-record
highs in Quillayute, WA, including 92 degrees F on June 28-29. In contrast. the
last day of June featured daily-record lows in locations such as Great Falls, MT
(36 degrees F) and Williston, ND (34 degrees F).

Crop Production : Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-4 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States.
1994 and Forecasted July 1, 1995
(Metric Units)

jeld per Hectar Production

Crop
Metric Tons
Oats 2.05 2.00 3,336,370 2,634,580
Barley 3.02 3.17 8,161,660 8,245,020
All Wheat 2 2.53 2.41 63,156,650 59,548,940

Winter 2 2.70 2.49 45,206,180 43,773.370 41,638,420

Ourum 2 2.39 2.35 2,649,350 3,051,980

Other Spring 2 2.14 2.23 15.301,120 14,858,540
Summer Potatoes : 27.10 26.79 1,009,110 765,300
Flue-cured Tobacco :

Types 11-14 2 2.71 2.34 394,580 374,150
Peaches : 1,136,930 1,128,400
Apricots : 143,520 61,230
Almonds (CA) : 331,120 140,610 140,610
Walnuts (CA) : 210,470 222,260
Citrus Fruits 1/ : 1993-94 1994-95 1994-95

Oranges : 9.326.770 10,660,330 10,604,990

Grapefruit : 2.408.580 2,636,280 2,632,650

Lemons : 892,670 844,590 830,980

1/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 A-5 NASS, USDA


Report Features

The next "Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on

August 11, 1995.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley, Chief (202)
Field Crops Section
Bill Dowdy, Head (202)
Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice (202)
Greg Preston - Sugar Crops, Tobacco, Weekly Crop Weather (202)
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202)
Charles Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats (202)
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section
Stephen Ropel, Head (202)
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans, Onions (202)
Roger Latham - Cotton. Hay (202)
Linda McMilian - Nuts, Grapes (202)
Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202)
Blair Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202)
Barbara Soltes - Noncitrus Fruits, Peanuts (202)

Crop Production
‘July 1995

720-2127

720-3843
720-9526
720-7621
720-8068
720-7369

720-3843
720-4285
720-5944
720-4215
720-2157
720-5412
720-7688

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE

NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on pretininnsy reports

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week. status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile,
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about

55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricuitural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-1 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: The first flue-cured production forecast for this season is

825 million pounds. down 5 percent from the 1994 production. Yield
per acre for all flue-cured is forecast at 2,088 pounds, 332 pounds below the
1994 average yield. Acres for harvest, at 395,000 acres, are up 10 percent
from last year.

Drought conditions-in early spring gave way to heavy rains that have made weed
and disease control difficult across the Flue-belt. North Carolina’s crop is
down 10 percent from last year, due to heavy rains that have drowned out many
fields and increased problems with Blue mold. In North Carolina, 30 percent of
the tobacco crop is reported in good to excellent condition, compared to

84 percent at this time last year.

Setting tobacco plants got off to a late start in Georgia because of a shortage
of transplants. The tobacco harvest was active in Florida and was 17 percent
complete in Georgia. Heavy rains slowed fieldwork in South Carolina where

49 percent of the tobacco was topped compared to an average of 69 percent.

Peaches: U.S. production is forecast at 2.49 billion pounds, down 1 percent

from 1994 and 6 percent below 1993. Excluding California Clingstone
peaches, the U.S. crop is forecast at 1.55 billion pounds, up 12 percent from
last year but down 1 percent from 1993.

The California Clingstone crop, at 940 million pounds, is unchanged from June 1
and 17 percent below 1994 production. Freestone production of 540 million
pounds is also unchanged from June 1, but 15 percent less than last year. Peach
harvest is in full swing. Hail storms in late-May and mid-June caused localized
damage in the Fresno-Kingsburg area. Hail damage and disease also affected
fruit quality but Freestones and Clingstones are showing good fruit size.

South Carolina's peach forecast of 255 million pounds is up 6 percent from June
1 and 2 percent above last year. Conditions have been favorable and harvest is
progressing well. Recent rains improved fruit size and quality, especially in
the late-maturing varieties.

The Georgia peach crop, at 160 million pounds. is unchanged from June 1.
Harvest is ahead of normal, with over three-quarters of the crop harvested.
Beneficial rains during June improved size.

Larger peach crops are expected in all the remaining states except Colorado,
Idaho, Oregon, and Utah. The Oregon peach crop was cut-back by poor
pollination, while a late freeze and frost damage reduced crop potential in
Colorado, Idaho, and Utah. The U.S. peach crop in mostly good condition with no
serious insect or disease problems.

Grapes: All grape production for California is forecast at 5.14 million tons,
down 2 percent from a year ago and down 5 percent from 1993.

Raisin type varieties are forecast at 2.20 million tons, down 8 percent from the
2.39 million tons produced last year. Rain and hail in mid-June damaged
vineyards in Fresno County. While recent hot weather has helped maturity, high
temperatures caused burn damage in some bunches. Approximately 20.000 acres are
in the Raisin Industry Diversion (RID) program for 1995.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-7 NASS, USDA


Departure of Average Temperature from Normal (°F)

JUN 1995
a ies ~*~ 4
3 a0 inh
LED
é Wi

We OK
Ye So) >

CLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER, NOAA
Based on pretiminary dota

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-3 NASS, USDA



The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age.
disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. _Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program
information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the

USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD).

To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C..
20250. or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is
an equal employment opportunity employer.

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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-16 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production by Seasonal
Group, State, and United States, 1993-95

Seasonal “+ Area Harvested :

Group and ee Sc ie nie

State : 1994

Winter 1/ :

CA : 4.5 5.

FL : 7.8 7

Total > 12.3 12.
Spring 1/ :

AL : 2.5 2

AZ : 6.3 6

CA : 20.5 17

FL > 38.6 38

Hastings : 29.0 28
Other FL : 9.6 10

NC : 17.0 17

TX : 5.5 5

Total > 90.4 86
Summer

AL 7.0

CA 5.7

co 9.0

DE 4.8

TL 5.0

IA 1.6

MO : 2.5

MI 2/ | >: 13.0

MN 2/ : 7.6

MO 6.8

NE 4.4

NJ 2.8

NM 3.4

NC 1.4

1TM 7.5

VA 9.5

Total 92.0 70

See footnotes at end of table.

Crop Production
July 1995

PRANAAD
DOND®OMWMH DAO

ON RP ENA
DOWNaDAN

AAEM aAa~

175
265
380
222
220
230
180
200
251

160
275
375
245
250
230
195
185
258

160
340
300
200
250
210
155

1.040 968
404

2,552 2,372

w
on
pals
%
_

419 438
1,485 1,670
7,508 7,790
6,068 8,588
4,680 6,380
1,388 2,208
3.114 3,060
1,060 1,100

19,654 22,646

639 1,190
1,584 2,109
2,542 2.925

750 816
1,170 1,450

105 328

322 250
3,500 2.730
2.130 2,280
1,508 1,734

630 1,408

627 588
1,290 1,088

120 126
1,875 800

1
1,760 1.425

Agricultural Stat

--continued

istics Board
NASS. USDA


Durum Wheat: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted July 1, 1995

Area Harvested Yield Production
State

1994 1995 1994 1995

1,000 Acres -- 1,000 Bushels --
AZ 94 99 91.0 88.0 86.0 8,554 8,514
CA 59 68 95.0 97.0 97.0 5,605 6,596
MN 35 10 25.0 30.0 875 300
MT 178 295 30.0 32.0 5,340 9,440
ND 2,350 2,700 32.5 32.0 76,375 86,400
SD 23 33 26.0 27.0 598 891
US 2,739 3,205 35.5 91.7 35.0 97,347 112,141

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted July 1, 1995

Area Harvested Yield Production

BS ae
1994 1995 1994 1995 1993 1994 1995
1,000 Acres -- Bushels --  —~----- 1.000 Bushels ------

co 42 42 77.0 73.0 2,640 3.234 3,066

ID 620 560 70.0 72.0 43,200 43,400 40,320

MN 2,500 2,150 28.0 30.0 69.750 70,000 64,500

MT 3.350 3.600 30.0 34.0 99,900 100,500 122,400

NV 4 7 55.0 85.0 400 220 595

ND 8,850 8,300 31.5 31.0 274,350 278,775 257,300

OR 58 114 50.0 45.0 3,900 2,900 5,130

So 1,980 1,150 26.0 27.0 54,540 51.480 31.050

UT 22 26 46.0 58.0 1.225 1,012 1,508

WA 245 445 40.0 42.0 15,080 9,800 18,690

WI 9 9 30.0 36.0 290 270 324

WY 17 25 37.0 43.0 546 629 1,075

US 17,697 16.428 31.8 33.2 565,821 562,220 545,958

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1995 A-10 NASS, USDA


forecast of 1.53 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate
by more than 2.0 percent or approximately 30.6 million bushels. Chances are

9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed
3.5 percent or approximately 53.5 million bushels. Differences between the
July 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past
10 years have averaged 20 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 61 million
bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 3 times and
above 7 times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this
year is likely to understate or overstate final production

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-13 NASS, USDA


brown rot, and mites. A severe hail storm in Fresno and Tulare Counties on
June 15 heavily damaged peaches, plums, nectarines, and grapes. Cherry harvest
ended in the state yielding a very short crop. Strawberries, boysenberries, and
blueberries were harvested in the Central Valley. Thinning of apple orchards
took place along with fungicide treatments. Almond and walnut orchards were
disced and irrigated. Walnuts were sprayed for blight, husk fly. and coddling
moth. Almonds were sprayed for Navel orange worm.

California Citrus: Navel orange harvest was complete by early June. Fruit
condition suffered during the season from wet weather with

heavy puff, crease, rind breakdown, and pitting reported. Picking of the

Valencia orange crop is approximately halfway complete with good quality

reported. Set is reported better in the Central Valley (District 1) than

Southern California (District 2).

New crop citrus maturity progressed well.

Papayas: Hawaii papaya production is estimated at 3.80 million pounds for June.
34 percent higher than May but 28 percent lower than a year ago.

Area devoted to papaya production is estimated at 3,775 acres, up slightly from

May and 15 percent higher than June 1994. Harvested area, totaling 2,630 acres.

was 4 percent higher than last month and 15 percent higher than a year ago.

Light shower activity, humid conditions, hot days. along with trade wind type,
warm, Sunny days made June weather conditions variable.

All Potatoes: Potato farmers planted 1.39 million acres of potatoes across the
United States this year, down 1 percent from last year but

1 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest is forecast at 1.37 million

acres, down 1 percent from last year but 4 percent above two years ago. By

season, acreage planted is down 1 percent for winter potatoes, down 3 percent

for spring. down 24 percent for summer (due to including all Michigan and

Minnesota acreage in the fall season), and up 1 percent for the fall crop.

Fall Potatoes: The Minnesota and Michigan crops have been moved from the summer

category to the fall catergory to more properly reflect their
use. The effect of this shift is a record high planted acreage of 1.22 million
acres, up 1 percent from last year and 3 percent above 1993. Harvest is
expected from 1.20 million acres, 2 percent abave last year and 6 percent above
1993. Without Michigan and Minnesota figures, acreage for harvest would be down
slightly.

Most fall potatoes started late across the U.S. with cool weather, rain. and
Planting delays. Warm days in the last half of June helped the crop catch up,
but in many States is still behind normal and well behind last year’s early
crop. Fields in southern and eastern valleys of Idaho were hit hard by frost in
early June. Foliage was burnt back to the ground but plants recovered with
secondary growth. The crop is now 2-3 weeks behind last year and a week or so
behind normal. Washington growers finished planting two weeks behind last year.
Harvesting early fields started in July, a week late. In California. planting
wrapped up by mid-June, 10 days late. Oregon growers were also late but water
supplies are adequate this year. Blight is showing up in the Columbia and

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-10 NASS, USDA


Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States. 1993-94 and Forecasted July 1, 1995

Area Harvested

Production

~- Bushels --

1994 1995
1,000 Acres
33 21
220 200
83 100
30 37
720 760
14 8
14 16
60 62
32 23
600 $85
1,200 1,200
8 8
4 4
5 5
25 30
2,400 2,350
6 3
130 95
75 75
7 5
310 170
8 15
107 95
87 80
305 290
84 86
100 95

95.
65.
90.
63.
75.
38.
79.
70.
51.
50.
44,
38.
85.
53.
70.
55.
37.
73.
65.
72.
42.
33.
75.
73.
47.
§3.
76.

SESDDSSDSOSSCDSCODSODOBDOCDOOCOOCCOD

90.
70.
95.
75.
77.
20.
77.
67.
50.
50.
54.
36.
80.
72.
60.
52.
35.
75.
69.
28.
37.
46.
90.
78.
67.
52.
85.

SSODDTODDT ODDO OD OSSD BOCBOSDOOOOS

2,900
13,000
7,650
2,275
60,000
690
1,072
4,761
1,512
37,700
63,800
532
500
300
1,200
117,600
280
9,750
5,985
266
15,120
308
9,350
5,695
23,115
3.220
9,460

398,041

- 1,000 Bushels -

3.135
14,300
7,470
1,890
54,000
§32
1,106
4,200
1,632
0, 000
2,800
304
340
265
1,750
132,000
222
9,490
4,875
504
13,020
264
8.025
6,351
14,335
4,452
7,600

374,862

1,890
14,000
9,500
2,775
58,520
160
1,232
4,154
1,150
9,250
4,800
288
320
360
1,800
122,200
105
125
175
140
6,290
690
8,550
6,240
19,430
4
8

2
6

on

472
075

Crop Prod
July 1995

uction

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Qats: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted July 1. 1995

Production

1,000 Acres -- Bushels --  — ------- 1,000 Bushels -------
AL : 33 25 55.0 40.0 1,350 1,815 1,000
AR : 20 15 77.0 85.0 1.360 1,540 1.275
CA : 35 30 80.0 85.0 2,400 2,800 2.550
co : 24 35 60.0 58.0 1,426 1,440 2,030
GA : 50 40 67.0 50.0 3,000 3.350 2,000
ID : 20 20 65.0 68.0 1,200 1,300 1,360
IL : 90 80 61.0 60.0 4,590 5,490 4,800
IN : 35 30 53.0 62.0 2,240 1,855 1,860
JA : 430 300 62.0 55.0 9,000 26,660 16,500
KS : 120 85 46.0 40.0 1.020 5.520 3.400
ME : 26 25 70.0 70.0 1,875 1,820 1.750
MD : 6 5 45.0 66.0 424 270 330
MI : 110 90 57.0 57.0 7,150 6.270 5,130
MN : 450 375 55.0 50.0 23.750 24,750 18,750
MO : 34 27 52.0 45.0 686 1.768 1,215
MT : 75 75 48.0 52.0 6.525 3,600 3.900
NE : 150 140 50.0 47.0 6,880 7,500 6,580
NY : 110 110 64.0 60.0 6.510 7,040 6,600
NC : 40 30 65.0 70.0 1,800 2,600 2,100
ND : 550 450 61.0 65.0 37,100 33,550 29,250
OH : 120 100 56.0 69.0 9,000 6,720 6,900
OK : 30 30 37.0 39.0 1,050 1,110 1,170
OR : AS 35 100.0 93.0 3.000 4,500
PA : 160 160 53.0 60.0 10,000 8,480
sc : 40 35 71.0 47.0 1.500 2.840
SD : 560 240 56.0 53.0 26.520 31,360
TX : 130 170 40.0 44.0 7,420 5,200
ut : 8 ll 75.0 78.0 1,014 600
WA : 20 14 58.0 75.0 2,040 1,160
WV : 5 5 45.0 50.0 240 225
WI : 470 420 54.0 52.0 24,150 25,380
wy : 24 40 56.0 59.0 1,550 1,344
US 4,020 3.247 206.770 229,857

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 A-6 NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production, by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 1993-95 (continued)

Seasonal
Group and
State

10 SW Co
Other ID

Long Is 4/:
Upstate 4/:

Malheur
Other OR
PA
RI
so
UT

WI
WY

Total

11.
73.
408.
27.
381.
4.
75.
3.
42.
67.
10.
10.
8.
6.
28.
6.
22.
120.
5.
53.
10.
43.
18.
1.
5.
6.
152.
71,
1.

© 1,182.

NWOMOODMNFOONNMNONEFAWODOODSHOHAGGANG

1

: 1,376.8

ll.
76.
398.
27.
371.
4.
75.
3.
57.
80.
9.
12.
8.
6.
27.

119.
$.
50.
11.
38.
7.
0.
5.
5.
147.
78.
1.

1,199,
1,369.

INOSHMIYPCHWORBDOOUMN

WMSOWOVoVNonno

4,800
25.270
126,192
10,440
115,752
1,050
19,890
645
11,780
12,650
2,700
3,008
2,926
2.871
7,693
1,643
6,050
21,090
1,140
3,103
3,567
9,536
4,600
226
1,066
1,643
88,500
22,588
504

»

385.935

4
25
134
12
121
1

7,

412,

459

400
795
340
420
920
148
250
775
180
755
200
888
760
,150
805
,617
188
200
348
784
284
500
780

253
540
590
920
740

476

077
342

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Included with fall potatoes in 1995.
3/. The forecast of fall potato production will be released November 9, 1995.

4/ Separate estimates discontinued in 1995.

Crop Production
July 1995

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production by State
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted July 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production

1,000 Acres == ------ Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels --
AL : 95 80 48.0 38.0 36.0 4,560 2,880
AZ : 28 23 94.0 95.0 88.0 2,632 2,024
AR : 880 1,000 46.0 45.0 48.0 40,480 48.000
CA : 510 440 76.0 70.0 66.0 38,760 29,040
co : 2,550 2,700 30.0 34.0 36.0 76,500 97,200
DE : 70 67 54.0 55.0 60.0 3,780 4,020
FL : 15 13 42.0 42.0 32.0 630 416
GA : 400 300 51.0 38.0 38.0 20,400 11,400
ID : 790 770 72.0 71.0 71.0 56, 880 54,670
IL : 900 1,390 56.0 §3.0 47.0 50,400 65,330
IN : 630 660 61.0 63.0 61.0 38,430 40,260
IA : 45 45 47.0 45.0 40.0 2,115 1,800
Ks : 11,400 10,800 38.0 35.0 28.0 433,200 302,400
kY : 420 460 60.0 53.0 53.0 25,200 24,380
LA : 70 80 37.0 40.0 36.0 2,590 2,880
MD : 220 225 55.0 57.0 56.0 12,100 12,600
MI : 580 600 53.0 55.0 55.0 30.740 33,000
MN : 37 33 29.0 35.0 30.0 1,073 990
MS : 160 170 40.0 37.0 35.0 6.400 5,950
MO : 1,100 1,200 45.0 43.0 38.0 49,500 45,600
MT : 1,850 1,500 35.0 35.0 38.0 64,750 57,000
NE : 2,100 2,100 34.0 39.0 38.0 71,400 79,800
NV : 5 4 90.0 100.0 85.0 450 340
NJ : 32 32 42.0 43.0 62.0 1,344 1.664
NM : 230 150 24.0 27.0 22.0 5,520 3,300
NY : 115 125 53.0 53.0 49.0 6.095 6,125
NC : 620 680 49.0 42.0 42.0 30.380 28,560
ND : 38 38 33.0 33.0 33.0 1,254 1,254
OH : 1,180 1,210 58.0 59.0 59.0 68,440 71,390
OK 7 §,300 5,250 27.0 27.0 21.0 143,100 110,250
OR : 870 820 64.0 63.0 68.0 55,680 55,760
PA i 165 185 48.0 52.0 51.0 7.920 9,435
sc : 360 280 50.0 35.0 30.0 18,000 8.400
5) : 1,350 1,510 32.0 36.0 38.0 43,200 57,380
TMN : 300 350 50.0 45.0 46.0 15,000 16,100
TX : 2,900 3,150 26.0 28.0 26.0 75,400 81.900
UT : 150 140 40.0 39.0 46.0 6.000 6,440
VA : 250 275 56.0 55.0 58.0 14,000 15,950
WA : 2,300 2,150 54.0 52.0 56.0 124,200 120,400
wy : 10 ll 55.0 50.0 62.0 550 572
Wi a 130 130 59.0 51.0 61.0 7.670 6,630
WY : 180 190 24.0 25.0 34.0 4,320 6.460
US 41,335 41.336 40.2 39.6 37.0 1,661,043 1,529,950
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1995 A-9 NASS, USDA


General Crop Comments: Early in June, rain and wet field conditions left row

crop planting behind schedule. Spring tillage and
planting were slowed by rain and wet fields in the Midwest, southern Great
Plains, and Delta regions. The first week of the month had fewer than 3 days
suitable for fieldwork in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Kansas. Early in the
Month, row-crop planting averaged 3 to 4 weeks behind schedule, the latest
planting progress in 20 years. Wet conditions for June accelerated weed growth
and restricted weed control activities. Rain showers in the Eastern States
brought relief from dry soil conditions.

At the start of June, corn planting was behind the average due to wet field
conditions that caused some farmers to plant around wet spots. Soybean planting
was delayed in the Midwest as producers concentrated on completing corn
Planting. At the beginning of June, heavy rains in the Southeast from tropical
storm Allison limited field activities but improved soil moisture supplies and
brought an end to the drought conditions. Late-season crop planting proceeded
rapidly in the Dakotas where possible, but showers and wet fields left planting
progress well behind schedule. Frequent showers in the Midwest caused farmers
to plant around-the-clock between storms. Muddy soi) conditions in Missouri
Slowed planting progress, leaving corn planted 5 weeks behind the average.
Emerged crops were yellowed and suffered from excessive moisture in the eastern
Corn Belt. Across the Nation, wet conditions have made weed and insect control
a top priority after the crops were planted. Cool, dry weather in the Southwest
slowed cotton development, and producers in the Texas Coastal Bend and lower
Valley were spraying to control beet armyworms.

By mid-June, warm, sunny weather enabled row crop producers to make significant
Planting progress across the Midwest. The number of days suitable for fieldwork
ranged from 3.7 days in North Carolina to 7 days in North Dakota. with most
States reporting 5 to 6 days. Much-needed rain was received in the mid-Atlantic
States, but soil moisture remained short in the Southeast. The prolonged cool,
wet spring slowed wheat development and raised producers’ concerns for weed and
insect control in addition to disease problems across the Nation. Soil moisture
ranged from 84 percent short to very Short in New Mexico to 48 percent surplus
in South Dakota. Oklahoma’s cotton planting was limited by wet fields, while
cotton development in California was slowed by cool weather and was 3 weeks
behind normal. Later in June, hot, dry weather announced the arrival of summer
across the Central States, stressing row crops and ripening winter wheat. Crop
emergence was impeded in the Northern States by the extreme hot. dry winds that
crusted the topsoil. Heavy downpours in the mid-Atlantic States brought the
fourth consecutive week of above-norma] rainfall, creating ideal conditions for
fungus and mold. Lodging in small grain fields and drowning of tobacco, cotton,
and soybean fields was reported in North Carolina. Many fields were flooded in
Arkansas, with some soybean acreage requiring replanting. Towards the end of
June, very dry soil conditions in the Great Lakes slowed corn development. and
heat stress curled corn leaves.

The end of June brought hot. humid weather and persistent showers over most of
the eastern United States, limiting fieldwork to 2 to 3 days. North Carolina
experienced the fifth consecutive week of above-normal rainfall, leaving surplus
soil moisture supplies and increased problems with fungus and mold. By the end
of June, warm weather boosted cotton development in California, but cotton
squaring, at 30% complete, remained 2 to 3 weeks behind normal. Cotton squaring
at the end of June was 64% complete. 4 points ahead of the average. while cotton
setting bolls was 6 points ahead of the average. Land lost to prior flooding in

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1995 B-5 NASS, USDA


Crop re Avera
Production

Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released July 12, 1995, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts refer
to July 1, 1995.

All Wheat Production Down 6 Percent

All wheat production for 1995 is forecast at 2.19 billion bushels, down

6 percent from 1994 to the lowest level since 1991. Yields are expected to
average 35.9 bushels per acre, down 1.7 bushels from last year. Harvested area,
at 61.0 million, is 1 percent less than a year ago.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.53 billion bushels, down 5 percent from
the June forecast and 8 percent from 1994. U.S. yields are now expected to
average 37.0 bushels per acre. down 2.6 bushels from last month and 3.2 bushels
from last year. Area for grain harvest is estimated at 41.3 million acres,
unchanged from both last year and the June 30 “Acreage” report.

Hard Red Winter wheat States from Nebraska to Texas have lower yields than last
month. Kansas and Oklahoma are off 7 and 6 bushels, respectively. In both of
these States, large numbers of heads were more than offset by record low head
weights. The low head weights are from a combination of freeze damage, disease
problems (notably rust) and weather damage to ripe wheat. Prospects for
improved yields in Montana, Colorado. and South Dakota partially offset the
Central Plains declines. Both Colorado and South Dakota have record high head
counts. .

Major Soft Red Winter wheat declines occurred in I]linois and Missouri, down

6 and 5 bushels, respectively. Indiana is down 2 bushels, but a very good yield
is expected from the northern portion of the State. Arkansas’s harvest resulted
in better than expected yields. The Illinois - Missouri crops have relatively
high head counts but head weights are lower than average.

White winter production in the Pacific Northwest is up from last month. Head
counts are a record high in Idaho. Washington and. Oregon are up 4 and 5
bushels, respectively, from last month. Indicated weight per head is at or near
record levels in all 3 States.

Index is located at the end of this report. For information call.
(202) 720-2127. Office hours are 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (7-95)


Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1993-94
and Forecasted July 1, 1995 1/

Winter Spring
Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard Total
: Red : Red : White : Red Durum White

1,000 Bushels

1993: 1,065,941 401.326 292,876 511.814 70,476 54,007 2,396,440

1994 : 971,134 433,335 256,574 515,392 97,347 46.828 2,320,610

1995 : 841,186 437,189 251,575 494,173 112,141 51.785 2,188,049

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on the latest varietal acreage survey data
available for wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate,
the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the
forecast season.

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by Class, Type
State, and United States. 1994 and Forecasted July 1, 1995

Class and Type beeen ene eee eee eee cee eee ene eee ee eee eee
: 1995

Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-Cured
Type 11, Old and
Middle Belts :
NC : 74,000 82,000

2,440 2,100 180,560 172,200

VA : 34,000 35.000 2,420 2.250 82,280 78,750

US : 108,000 117,000 2,434 2,145 262,840 250.950
Type 12, Eastern NC

Belt :

NC : 131,000 144,000 2,525 2,000 330.775 288,000
Type 13. NC Border &

SC Belt :

NC : 30,000 33,000 2.365 2,000 70,950 66.000

sc : 47,000 50,000 2,300 2,200 108,100 110,000

US : 77,000 83.000 2,325 2.120 179.050 176,000
Type 14, GA-FL Belt

FL 6,500 7,000 2,550 2,500 16,575 17,500

GA 37,000 44,000 2,180 2,100 80,660 92.400

us 43,500 51,000 2,235 2,155 97,235 109.900
Total 11-14 359,500 395,000 2,420 2,088 869,900 824,850
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

duly 1995 A-12 NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat: Head Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting winter wheat
objective yield surveys in 13 States during 1995. Randomly selected plots in
winter wheat fields are visited monthly from May through harvest to obtain
specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are derived actual field
counts and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board.

Winter Wheat: Heads per Square Foot,
Selected States, 1991-95 1/ 2/

State and Month 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

—_ Number . :

co. JULY 35.8 32.9 40.0 41.6 52.9
Final 36.2 33.3 39.7 41.6

ID JULY 41.2 37.8 38.2 43.4 44.6
Final 43.5 37-7 40.2 42.6

IL JULY 43.9 41.0 46.8 45.8 56.4
Final : 43.9 41.0 46.0 45.8

KS JULY > 40.9 41.3 50.2 49.6 54.5
Final 41.2 41.3 49.1 496

MO JULY : 45.6 38.5 44.9 39.4 49.8
Final : 45.6 38.5 44.7 39.4

MT JULY : 32.7 26.1 34.6 31.0 31.0
Final > 32.6 26.8 35.3 31.4

NE JULY : 45.8 40.4 50.4 45.7 60.3
Final : abl 40.4 49.8 45.9

OH JULY : 4g.4 42.1 43.1 47.1 53.9
Final : agl4 42.1 42.8 47.1

OK JULY : 37.7 39.2 45.1 48.0 43.4
Final : 37.0 39.2 45.1 48.0

OR JULY : 28.7 25.8 31.0 35.2 31.4
Final : 25.7 25.8 30.2 34.8

sD duty : 46.6 37.5 48.9 39.4 53.6
Final : 46.0 38.1 48.8 38.1

TX — JULy : 33.7 37.7 35.3 35.6 37.9
Final : 34.2 37.7 35.4 35.8

WA JULY : 30.3 29.7 31.1 32.0 29.3
Final 30.0 29.4 30.7 31.9

1/ Based on the number of heads counted in plots selected for the objective
yield survey.

2/ Final head counts will be published in the “Smal] Grains Summary” in
September.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 A-11 NASS, USDA


Reliability of July 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted
between June 22 and July 3 to gather information on expected
yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in 13 States that
accounted for 84 percent of the 1994 production. Plots were revisited to make
counts and harvest mature samples. In late fields. counts such as number of
stalks, heads in tate boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the
number of heads that would be harvested. A 5-year historical head weight is
used until the crop matures to the point that heads can be clipped, threshed,
and weighed. The number of heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot
can then be expanded to an estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average
harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited
each month until the crop reaches maturity and or harvested on the final visit.

The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 10,000 winter wheat
producers representing all major production areas. These producers were
selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter
wheat yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the
growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season
progresses.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower

reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness
and consistency with historical estimates. The indications were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and
previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the
survey indications and the State analysis to prepare the published July 1
forecasts.

Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised: instead.a

new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the
marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks,
production, exports, millings. feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then
made if data relationships warrant changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 winter

wheat production forecast. the "Root Mean Square Error,” a
statistical measure based on past performance is computed. This is done by
expressing the deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate. and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1975-1994 20-year period: the square root of the
average becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error." Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year’s forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The “Root Mean Square Error” for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is
2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
duly 1995 B-12 NASS. USDA


Umatilla Basins. Colorado potatoes are on schedule in the San tuis Valley. In
New Mexico, favorable spring and summer weather was good for potatoes. .

Across the Northern and Mid-Western States, wet soils kept farmers out of the
fields early but warm and hot periods later helped planting get done. North
Dakota and Wisconsin soils were almost dry by July as potato growth caught up to
normal. Michigan farmers have been irrigating. Maine finished planting early
but dry soils are now a concern. New York is also dry.

Eastern plantings are estimated at 128,200 acres, down 2 percent from last year
and 4 percent below 1993. Maine continued to Tose potato acreage with a

3 percent decline this year. Pennsylvania plantings were down 5 percent while
New York gained 3 percent. Rhode Istand’s planted area dropped 200 acres but
was offset by an increase in Massachusetts.

Central growers planted an estimated 374,400 acres of fall potatoes this year,
including the former summer season acreage in Michigan and Minnesota. This
total climbed 7 percent from the last two years. Michigan’s combined acreage is
up 3 percent, and Minnesota's total gained 2 percent. Wisconsin’s planted
acreage jumped 10 percent. pushed by processing demand. North Dakota dropped

8 percent, South Dakota fell 12 percent, and Ohio dipped 2 percent. Nebraska
and Indiana plantings are both up, by 15 and 14 percent, respectively.

Western growers planted 717,400 acres of fall potatoes in 1995, down 2 percent
from a year ago but 2 percent above two years ago. Acreage in Idaho, Montana,
and New Mexico each fell 2 percent from a year ago. Washington was down

3 percent and Oregon dropped 5 percent. Utah and Wyoming growers planted 11 and
12 percent, respectively, fewer acres of potatoes. On the up side, Colorado
acreage increased 4 percent while California gained 5 percent. Nevada's potato
acreage remained the same as last year.

Summer Potatoes: With Michigan and Minnesota estimates moved to the fall
season, production of summer potatoes is forecast at

16.9 million cwt. For the comparable states, this is down 2 percent below last

year but 13 percent above 1993. Farmers expect to harvest 70.600 acres during

the summer season, a decrease of 1 percent from a year ago but 1 percent above

two years ago.

The average yield, forecast at 239 cwt per acre, is off 2 cwt in comparable
states from last year but 25 cwt above 1993. Planted area of 72,500 acres is
down 2 percent.

Atlantic Coast States are expecting a good summer crop with yields well above
last year. Harvest is a little later than last year. North Carolina harvest is
about 40 percent completed and the Del-Mar-Va harvest is progressing well.
Alabama growers reported a good to excellent crop with favorable weather and
adequate moisture. Texas growers are into their red crop on the High Plains
with norgold digging to start in July. In New Mexico. good weather was
conducive to a good crop. Colorado growing weather has been cool and wet with
hail damage in early June.

Harvest in the Missouri Southeast is over two-thirds finished, while digging has
not started in the Northwest. Recent hot weather helped Iowa and Illinois
potatoes catch up after a slow, wet Start. Nebraska farmers are anticipating
slightly lower yields, but acreage is up from last year. California growers
report reductions in both acreage and yields.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-11 NASS, USDA


All Wheat: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted July 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production

1994 1995 1994 1995

: -- 1,000 Acres -- --- Bushets -- ------ 1,000 Bushels ------
AL : 95 80 48.0 36.0 3,230 4,560 2,880
AZ : 122 122 91.7 86.4 7,790 11,186 10,538
AR : 880 1,000 46.0 48.0 41,600 40,480 48,000
CA : 569 508 78.0 70.2 42,300 44,365 35,636
co 2 2,592 2.742 30.8 36.6 96.990 79.734 100. 266
DE : 70 67 54.0 60.0 3,591 3,780 4,020
FL : 15 13 42.0 32.0 825 630 416
GA : 400 300 51.0 38.0 13,680 20,400 11,400
ID : 1,410 1,330 71.1 71.4 110,350 100,280 94,990
TL : 990 1.390 56.0 47.0 68,200 50.400 65,330
IN : 630 660 61.0 61.0 34,840 38.430 40.260
IA : 45 45 47.0 40.0 625 2,115 1,800
Ks : 11,400 10,800 38.0 28.0 388,500 433,200 302,400
ky : 420 460 60.0 53.0 20,090 25,200 24, 380
LA : 70 80 37.0 36.0 2,375 2,590 2,880
MD : 220 225 55.0 56.0 10,800 12,100 12,600
MI : 580 600 $3.0 55.0 22,140 30.740 33.000
MN 7 2,572 2,193 28.0 30.0 71,190 71,948 65.790
MS : 160 170 40.0 35.0 6,930 6,400 5,950
MO : 1,100 1,200 45.0 38.0 53,200 49,500 45.600
MT 5,378 5,395 31.7 35.0 206,334 170,590 188,840
NE : 2,100 2,100 34.0 38.0 73,500 71,400 79,800
NV : 9 11 74.4 85.0 800 670 935
Nd : 32 32 42.0 52.0 1,419 1,344 1,664
NM : 230 150 24.0 22.0 6,210 5,520 3,300
NY : 115 125 53.0 49.0 3,910 6,095 6.125
NC : 620 680 49.0 42.0 23,520 30,380 28,560
ND : 11,238 11,038 31.7 31.3 336,610 356,404 344,954
OH : 1,180 1,210 58.0 59.0 52,520 68,440 71,390
OK > 5,300 5,250 27.0 21.0 156,600 143,100 110,250
OR : 928 934 63.1 65.2 64,960 58,580 60,890
PA : 165 185 48.0 51.0 7,425 7,920 9,435
S¢ 4 360 280 50.9 30.0 9,880 18,000 8,400
SD : 3,353 2,693 28.4 33.2 111,522 95,278 89,321
TN : 300 350 50.0 46.0 13,940 15,000 16.100
1X : 2,900 3,150 26.0 26.0 118,400 75,400 81.900
UT : 172 166 40.8 47.9 7.270 7,012 7,948
VA : 250 275 56.0 58.0 13,515 14,000 15,950
WA : 2,545 2,595 52.7 53.6 177,580 134,000 139,090
WY : 10 ii 55.0 52.0 A473 550 572
WI : 139 139 57.1 50.0 4,660 7,940 6,954
wy : 197 215 25.1 35.0 6,146 4,949 7,535
US 2 61,771 60,969 37.6 35.9 2.396.440 2,320,610 2,188,049
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1995 A-8 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

UPDATED BI-WEEKLY

NOAAJUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACKITY Based on preliminary reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness: responds slowly: changes little from week to.week; and
reflects long term moisture runoff. recharge, and deep percolation. as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies: designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-2 NASS, USDA


Table type grape production is forecast at 640,000 tons, 6 percent above 1994.
Picking is nearly complete in the Coachella Valley and just beginning in the San
Joaquin Valley. Good quality is reported.

The wine type varieties are expected to produce 2.30 million tons, a two percent
increase over last year. Disease problems are minor with maturity progressing
well.

Apricots: The final forecast for the 1995 apricot crop is 67.500 tons, down
57 percent from last year’s crop.

The California apricot forecast plummeted to 60,000 tons, down 14 percent from
June and 60 percent below 1994. Growers reported quality problems from
excessive rains and harsh temperatures during June. The bad weather combined
with stress from last year’s heavy crop. low fruit set, and poor growing
conditions throughout the season led to the reduced 1995 crop. A spring freeze
and snow storm destroyed virtually all of Utah's commercial apricot crop for
1995. No significant production is expected this year.

Washington's apricot production is forecast at 7,500 tons. down 4 percent from
1994. Early apricot harvest is underway in the Yakima Valley.

Walnuts: The 1995 California walnut production forecast is 245,000 tons, up

6 percent from last year. Bloom was late this year; therefore,
orchards were not affected by the spring storms. Good nut sets have been
reported in the San Joaquin Valley and on early varieties. in general. Blight
ts mow a concern as wet ground made it difficult for farmers to treat orchards.

Almonds: California’s 1995 almond production is forecast at 310 million meat

pounds, down 28 percent from the May forecast and down 58 percent from
last year’s record high. Bearing acreage is revised to 390,000 acres.
Production from the Nonpareil variety. which represents 52 percent of the total.
is forecast at 160 million meat pounds, down 55 percent from jast season.

The average nut set per tree is 3,792, down 54 percent from 1994. The Nonpareil
average nut set at 3,851 represents a 51 percent decrease from a year ago. The
average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.91, up 17 percent from
last year. A total of 95.4 percent of the nuts sampled were sound.

Warm winter temperatures led to an early bloom period this year. Heavy rain and
high winds during the bloom resulted in bloom loss and pollination problems.
Tree conditions and nut sets vary within the-orchards while nut sizes range from
normal to large. Crop development is behind normal due to the cool, wet weather
in March.

Grapefruit: The final forecast for the 1994-95 U.S. grapefruit production is
2.90 million tons, up 9 percent from last season but down slightly
from last month.

Florida’s grapefruit forecast is 55.7 million boxes (2.37 million tons), up
9 percent from 1993-94 but down slightly from June. White seedless production

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-8 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1994 and Forecasted July 1, 1995
(Domestic Units)

: Yield per Acre Production

1995 :

Oats Bu: 57.

2 55.9 229,857 181,508
Barley "> $6.2 59.0 374,862 378,691
All Wheat “> 37.6 35.9 2,320,610 2,188,049
Winter “> 40.2 37.0 1,661,043 1,608,396 1,529,950
Durum “3 35.5 35.0 97,347 112,141
Other Spring "+ 31.8 33.2 562,220 545,958
Summer Potatoes Cwt : 242 239 22,247 16,872
Flue-cured Tobacca 1
Types 11-14 Lb : 2,420 2,088 869,900 824,850
Peaches lb: 2,506,500 2,487,700
Apricots Ton : 158.2 67.5
Almonds (CA) Lb: 730,000 310,000 310,000
Walnuts (CA) Ton : 232.0 245.0
Citrus Fruits 1/ : 1993-94 1994-95 1994-95
Oranges Ton : 10,281 11,751 11,690
Grapefruit "ot 2,655 2,906 2.902
Lemons "ot 984 931 916

1/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 A-4 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit:

Crop
and
State
Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/
AZ
CA 43
FL 114
TX 4/
us 159
Valencia 2
AZ : 1,
CA 2 23
FL 72
TX 4/
US 96
Ally :
AZ : 1,
CA 7 66,
FL > 186,
TX 4/ :
us > 255,
Temples :
FL 2,
Grapefruit
White Seedless
FL 25
Colored Seedless
FL 27
Other
FL 1
All
AZ 2
cA
Desert 4/ 3
Other Areas : 5.
Total : 9,
FL > 5S,
TX 4/ 1.
us 68,
Tangerines
AZ
CA 4/ 2,
FL 2.
us 5,
Lemons
AZ 4,
CA 20,
US 24
Tangelos ot
FL : 3,
K-Early Citrus :
FL .

700
700
750
150
+500

Boxes

36,
107,

145,
26,
66,
94,
62,

174,

239,

nN
Of

a on
NAR BWROMNwW FoF

ny
on

25.

700
600
300
480
080

200

000
900

70
170

900

600
200
550
250

250

500
500
050
750

300
800
100
050
000
900

000
300
100
400

200
700

900

350

400
37,000
119,700
950
158,050

650
26,000
85,700

100

112,450

1,050
63,000
205,400
1,050
270,500

2,550

25,700
28,700
1.300
1,400

3,300
6,000
9,300
§5,700
4,400
70,800

650
2,300
3,550
6,500

3.600
20,500
24,100

3,150

1995 1/

Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States
1993-94 and Forecasted July 1

Utilized Production

Ton Equivatent

£992

113

093
.177

74
69
112

191
303

344
791

35

133
247

167
775
942

281

102

042
. 084

111

655

15
388
387

6,830
24
975
3,857
4
4,860
39

363
1244

oe

won

11,690
115

1,092
1,220

dll

2,902

Crop Production
July 1995

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Potatoes: Area Planted by Seasonal Group,
State. and United States, 1994-95

Seasonal Group : : 2: Seasonal Group : 2
and State : 1994: «(1995 os: and State : 1994 : 1995
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres
Winter 1/ : i: Fall :
CA : 4.5 5.0 CA : 11.0 11.5
FL : 8.4 7.8 co : 74.0 77.0
Total : 12.9 12.8 1D >: 410.0 400.0
: tt 10 SW Co : 27.0 27.0
Spring 1/ : tt Other ID : 383.0 373.0
AL : 2.6 2.6 ae IN : 4.4 5.0
AZ : 6.3 6.3 ME : 78.0 76.0
CA : 20.5 18.0 MA : 3.1 3.3
FL : 39.2 39.0 MI : 44.0 60.0
Hastings 2 29.5 28.5 MN : 74.0 83.0
Other FL : 9.7 10.5 MT : 10.0 9.8
NC : 17.3 17.5 NE : 11.0 12.6
TX : 5.7 §.2 NV : 8.0 8.0
Total > 91.6 88.6 NM : 6.3 6.2
: tt NY : 29.1 30.0
Summer : it Long Is 3/ : 6.1
AL : 7.2 6.8 :: Upstate 3/  : 23.0
CA 5.7 6.5 ND : 133.0 123.0
co 9.2 9.0 OH : 5.6 5.5
DE 4.9 5.3 OR : 63.5 51.0
IL 5.1 5.5 Malheur : 10.3 12.0
TA 1.6 1.6 Other OR : 43.2 39.0
MD 2.5 1.5 PA : 19.0 18.0
MI 2/ 14.0 RI : 1.1 0.9
MN 2/ 7.7 SD : 6.0 5.3
MO 7.2 7.1 UT : 6.1 5.4
NE 4.5 5.6 WA : 152.0 147.0
NO 2.9 2.7 WI : 73.0 80.0
3.7 4.2 WY : 1.7 1.5
1.5 1.4 :
7.8 7.3 Total : 1,213.9 1,220.0
10.0 9.0 :
95.5 72.5 US

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Included with fall potatoes in 1995.
3/ Separate estimates discontinued in 1995.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States.
1994 and Forecasted July 1, 1995

Crop
Domestic Units - 1,000 Acres
Oats : 6,644 6,438 4,020 3.247
Barley : 7,159 6.796 6,667 6,418
All Wheat : 70.421 69,375 61,771 60.969
Winter : 49,247 49,339 41,335 41.336
Durum : 2,850 3,265 2,739 3,205
Other Spring : 18,324 16,771 17,697 16,428
Potatoes :
Summer : 95.5 72.5 92.0 70.6
Fall : 1,213.9 1,220.0 1,182.1 1,199.9
Total : 1,413.9 1,393.9 1,376.8 1,369.9
All Tobacco : 671.2 685.9
Flue-cured :
Types 11-14 : 359.5 395.0
Metric Units - Hectares
Oats : 2,688,760 2,605,390 1,626,850 1,314,030
Barley : 2,897,180 2,750,270 2,698,070 2,597,300
All Wheat : 28,498,670 28.075.370 24,998,110 24,673,540
Winter > 19,929,770 19,967,000 16,727,860 16,728,270
Ourum : 1,153,370 1,321,310 1,108,450 1,297,030
Other Spring : 7,415,540 6,787,060 7,161,800 6,648,250
Potatoes :
Summer : 38.650 29,340 37.230 28,570
Fall . : 491,250 493,720 478,380 485,590
Total : 572,190 564,100 557,180 554,380
All Tobacco : 271,610 277,580
Flue-cured :
Types 11-14 : 145,490 159,850

1/. Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans. nuts, etc.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 A-3 NASS, USDA


the middle Mississippi Valley was replanted. Some fields were unplanted in the
northern Great Plains, where the dry, baked topsoil has hampered emergence in
recently planted fields. At month's end, the Kansas winter wheat harvest was
51 points behind the average due to delays from rainy weather. Late planted
corn fields were half of the average height in parts of the Midwest. Corn
condition improved at the end of June, due to rainy weather that boosted corn
development in the Midwest. Some early matured rice fields in Texas and the
Delta were prepared for harvest. By the end of the month, soybean planting was
close to completion. Soybeans blooming were ahead of schedule in the Southwest
but Tagged in the Midwest.

Oats: Total 1995 oat production is forecast at 182 million bushels, down

21 percent from last year. If realized, this would be the lowest oat
production since records were first kept in 1866. The forecasted yield, at
55.9 bushels per acre, is down 1.3 bushels from last season’s 57.2 bushels.
Area harvested and to be harvested. at 3.25 million acres, is down 19 percent
from the 4.02 million harvested in 1994, and also the least since 1866.

The Iowa crop has been reduced by excess moisture in most areas of the State.
High temperatures during the heading stage also hurt prospects. The Minnesota
crop had a slow start and was hurt by high temperatures during late June. South
Dakota's acreage was reduced sharply by the wet spring and is very late.

Barley: Barley production is forecast at 379 million bushels, as of July 1.

1995. This production, if realized. would be 1 percent above the 1994
production of 375 million bushels. Yields are expected to average 59.0 bushels
per acre, up 2.8 bushels from last year. Area harvested and to be harvested, at
6.42 million acres. is 4 percent below the 6.67 million acres harvested last
year.

The yield decline from last year in North Dakota was more than offset by the
increase in Montana. Cool, wet weather in Montana provided good opportunities
for high yields. Well above normal precipitation in Idaho has enhanced yield
potential.

Durum Wheat: The first full durum production forecast for 1995 is 112 million

bushels, up 15 percent from 1994. This will be the largest durum
production since 1990. Yields are forecast at 35.0 bushels per acre, off a half
bushel from last year. Harvested area, at 3.21 million acres, is up 17 percent
from 1994,

Durum harvest in California’s Imperial Valley finished in Tate June; the San
Joaquin area harvest is nearly complete. Greater than expected frost damage
took another 2 bushels off of Arizona’s June 1 yield. Hot. dry June conditions
pushed North Dakota’s late planted durum; however, development is stil? about
2 weeks behind average. As of July 2, only 3 percent of the crop was headed
compared to 21 percent last year. Candition ratings are 4 percent poor,

28 fair. and 68 good to excellent.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-6 NASS, USDA


Other Spring wheat production is forecast at 546 million bushels, down 3 percent
from 1994. Area for grain harvest;is 16.4 million acres, down 7 percent from
last year. Yields are forecast at 33.2 bushels per acre, up 1.4 bushels per
acre from last season. The expected yields are higher than 1994 in all States
except Colorado, North Dakota, and Oregon. Crop development trails average in
nearly all States: North Dakota is about 2 weeks late.

Minnesota's forecasted yield, while higher than last year, is one of the lowest
July forecasts ever. Record high temperatures in late June have fostered
concern about the late seeded acres. Montana has had ample moisture,
development is paralleling 1993; this would be a record high production. Ten
days of 90 degree temperatures has limited tillering potential of North Dakota’s
crop. Utah's early seeded spring wheat is in very good condition. Wyoming’s
yields are at record high levels.

All orange production decreased 1 percent from June to 11.69 million tons but
remains 14 percent above last season. This year’s production is 142,000 tons
below the record high crop of 11.83 million tons (274 million boxes) set in
1979-80. Florida production of 205 million boxes (9.24 million tons) was
adjusted down slightly from last month but is 18 percent above a year earlier.
Early and mid-season variety production ended at 120 million boxes (5.39 million
tons). The Valencia forecast is off slightly from June 1 to 85.7 million boxes
(3.86 million tons) but is 28 percent above a year ago. The Florida Valencia
harvest ended the last week of June. California's 1994-95 a11 orange production
is 63.0 million boxes (2.36 million tons), up 1 percent from last season but

2 percent below April. The Navel orange forecast is 37.0 million boxes

(1.39 million tons), unchanged from previously but 1 percent above last year.
The Valencia forecast declined to 26.0 million boxes (975.000 tons), down

4 percent from April but equal to last season.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice yield for the 1994-95 crop is

1.50 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. Yield is unchanged from last month
but down from-ltast season's final of 1.57 gallons per box. Final yield for
early and mid-season varieties averaged 1.44 gallons per box, down from

1.52 gallons per box last season. The Valencia crop yielded 1.58 gallons per
box, compared with 1.59 gallons per box last month and 1.66 gallons per box a
year ago. The final yield is reported by the Florida Citrus Processors
Association.

This report was approved on July 12, 1995, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Agricultural
Statistics Board.

(LD ers Lecdewe.to gol .

a sécretary of Agricultural Statis
Agriculture Acting Chairperson
Dan Glickman Frederic A. Vogel
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1995 A-2 NASS, USDA


Index
Page
Table Narrative

Barley... i eect eet eens A- 7 B- 6
Citrus Fruit... 0... cee eee A-15 B- 8
Crop Moisture Maps............ 00.0 c eee eee B- 1
Crop Summary... 2... eee ee eee A- 3
Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts...................... A-14 B- 7
Oats... ence A- 6 B- 6
Papayas-Hawaii... 2... eee eee A-16 B-10
PEACHES... cee eet een ees A-13 B- 7
Potatoes... 0... ene tenes A-17 B-10
Reliability Statement.............0.....0..02000005 B-12
Tobacco, by Class and Type.......,......2-....00-0. A-11 B- 7
Wheat, ATT... ee eee eens A- 8

Wheat, by Class... . 2... ee eee A-1l

Wheat, Durum. ..... 2.0... A-10 B- 6
Wheat, Other Spring................0..0. 020 A-10

Wheat, Winter.......... 2. eee ee A- 9

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1995 B-14 NASS, USDA


remained unchanged from last month at 25.7 million boxes (1.09 million tons).
Colored seedless production decreased from 28.8 million boxes to 28.7 million
boxes (1.22 million tons). Seedy varieties remained at 1.30 million boxes
(55,000 tons). Most grapefruit harvest ended by the first of June. -

California’s forecast for Desert Valley grapefruit, carried forward from April
1, is 3.30 million boxes (111,000 tons). The forecast for Other Areas, at
6.00 million boxes is unchanged from April but 3 percent above last year. Some
scarring and sunburn exist but overall quality is good. Condition is also good
with only minimal amounts of decay at the packinghouse. A full range of sizes
are available.

The Texas and Arizona grapefruit forecasts remained unchanged at 4.40 million
boxes (176,000 tons) and 1.40 million boxes (47,000 tons), respectively.

Lemons: The 1994-95 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 916.000 tons. down 2 percent
from last quarter and down 7 percent from the 1993-94 crop.

The California lemon forecast remains unchanged from April at 20.5 million boxes
(779,000 tons) but 1 percent below last year. District I export grades looked
good and domestic grades looked fair. Grade defects were scar. tip injuries,
and picking injuries. District II lemons had a fair amount of green on some
lots. Sizes were satisfactory.

Arizona’s lemon forecast dropped 10 percent from last quarter to 3.60 million
boxes (137,000 tons). The crop will be down 31 percent from a year ago.
Quantity and size of fruit were down and there were problems with heart rot die
back in older trees.

Florida Citrus: Citrus groves. trees, and new crop fruit are in very good

condition. Adequate moisture came during June except for
Hurricane Allison which dumped excessive amounts in southern and western citrus
counties. The heavy rains did not cause appreciable damage as most groves
needed rain when the storm passed. New crop fruit is in good condition with
normal sizes. An abundance of new growth exists on trees of all ages especially
in well managed groves. Caretakers completed post-bloom nutritional spraying
and started summer spraying schedules. Fertilizers were applied in all areas.
Some growers put down a second herbicide application to reduce rapid weed growth
generated by summer rains. Valencia orange harvest ended the last week of June.
All major processing plants and packing houses closed for the season. A few
fresh squeeze juice operations were still running and will receive limited
amounts of late oranges through most of the summer. Grapefruit harvest ended for
all practical purposes the first of June. A few gift fruit packers still moved
some fruit and one or two fresh squeeze plants received very small amounts of
juice fruit until the middle of June.

California Fruits and Nuts: Grape growers thinned and irrigated vineyards as
well as treated for mildew and insects. Table
grapes harvest was underway in the Coachella Valley and Tulare County but
development was slow in the Central Valley. Stone fruit harvest continued in
the Central Valley. Orchards were treated for coddling moth, peach twig borer,

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
July 1995 B-9 NASS, USDA


Peaches: Total Production by Type, State and United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted July 1, 1995

Total Production

BSS ee es

1993 1994 1995
Million Pounds
AL 14.0 17.0 22.0
AR : 24.0 8.0 21.0
CA Freestone : 603.0 632.0 540.0
co : 18.0 20.0 16.0
cT 3.6 2.2 3.0
DE 4.0 2.6 2.6
GA 150.0 175.0 160.0
1D 7.0 4.0 2.5
Ik : 16.0 4.8 19.0
IN 1/ : 8.0 5.0
KS : 0.5 0.5 1.5
KY 1/ : 6.0 5.0
LA : 3.5 4.0 6.0
MD 10.0 2.8 10.0
MA 1.7 1.0 1.6
MI 57.0 10.0 50.0
MO 7.5 5.0 13.0
Nd 90.0 75.0 97.0
NY 9.0 7.0 11.5
NC : 35.0 33.0 37.0
OH 1/ : 6.9 7.5
OK : 20.0 25.0 27.0
OR : 14.0 15.5 12.0
PA 1/ : 100.0 90.0
Sc : 220.0 250.0 255.0
TN : 10.4 1.7 11.0
TTMX : 25.0 20.0 24.0
UT : 6.0 7.4 6.5
VA : 28.0 12.0 26.0
WA : 47.0 41.0 45.0
Wy 1/ : 18.0 20.0
Total Above : 1,563.1 1,376.5 1,547.7
CA :
Clingstone : 1,097.0 1,130.0 940.0
US 2,660.1 2,506.5 2,487.7
1/ No significant commercial production in 1994 due to freeze damage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1995 A-13 NASS, USDA


V/

2/

3/

4/

Citrus Fruit Footnotes

The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

Net Ibs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA

Desert & AZ-64 in 1992-93 and earlier, 67-starting in 1993-94. CA Other-67,
FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90;
tangerines-CA and AZ-75, FL-95.

Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including smal] quantities of tangerines in TX.

Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Hawaii, 1994-95

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month

-- 1,000 Pounds --

May 3,330 3,765 2,285 2,525 5,045 2,825
Jun 3,280 3,775 2,295 2.630 5,305 3,795
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 1995 A-16 NASS, USDA