Cr Pr 2-2 (12-03)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released December 11, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Cotton Production Unchanged from November

All Orange Production Unchanged from October

All cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million 480-pound bales, unchanged from November 1 but up

6 percent from last year’s production. Yield is expected to average a record high 722 pounds per harvested

acre, surpassing the previous record of 708 pounds set in 1994. Record high yields are expected in Arkansas,

Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Harvested area, at 12.1 million acres, is unchanged from November 1

but 3 percent below 2002.

The U.S. all orange December forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.6 million tons, unchanged from the

previous forecast but up 18 percent from last season’s final utilization. While Florida’s all orange forecast

remains unchanged at 252 million boxes (11.3 million tons), offsetting changes occurred between varieties. 

Early and midseason varieties are reduced 3 million boxes, to 134 million boxes (6.03 million tons), 2 percent

less than the October 1 forecast. The growth rate has slowed. Fruit size is now expected to be smaller than

previously estimated but still near the 10 season average. Fruit drop is slightly higher than average. The

Valencia forecast is increased 3 million boxes to 118 million boxes (5.31 million tons), up 3 percent from the

previous forecast. Fruit size is above average while fruit drop is below the previous 10 season average. 

Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the October forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2003-04 season is unchanged from the

October 1 forecast at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is near last season’s 1.54 gallons per

box final yield. The record high yield is 1.63 gallons from the 1998-99 season. Projected juice yield for the

2003-04 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. 

All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past

several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on December 11, 2003.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

James R. Moseley

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 3 NASS, USDA

 Contents

Page

Beans, Dry Edible ...................................................................... 7

Citrus ................................................................................ 6

Coffee ............................................................................... 17

Cotton ............................................................................... 4

 Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts ........................................................ 24

Cottonseed ............................................................................ 5

Crop Summary ........................................................................ 18

Crop Comments ....................................................................... 27

Information Contacts ................................................................... 33

Papayas .............................................................................. 5

Pecans ............................................................................... 16

Reliability of Production Data in this Report ................................................. 31

Sugarcane ............................................................................ 17

Weather Maps ........................................................................ 25

Weather Summary ..................................................................... 26
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 4 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,

and United States, 2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2003

Type

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Nov 1 Dec 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Bales 2 1,000 Bales 2

Upland

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

Amer-Pima

 AZ

 CA

 NM

 TX

 US

All

 AL

 AZ

 AR

 CA

 GA

 LA

 MS

 MO

 NM

 NC

 OK

 SC

 TN

 TX

 VA

 Oth

 Sts 3

 US

540.0

213.0

920.0

477.0

1,360.0

495.0

1,150.0

368.0

50.0

920.0

180.0

200.0

530.0

4,500.0

98.0

183.0

12,184.0

8.2

209.0

7.1

18.3

242.6

540.0

221.2

920.0

686.0

1,360.0

495.0

1,150.0

368.0

57.1

920.0

180.0

200.0

530.0

4,518.3

98.0

183.0

12,426.6

510.0

208.0

940.0

555.0

1,290.0

520.0

1,100.0

390.0

42.0

770.0

170.0

217.0

535.0

4,400.0

85.0

207.0

11,939.0

3.9

139.0

6.0

19.5

168.4

510.0

211.9

940.0

694.0

1,290.0

520.0

1,100.0

390.0

48.0

770.0

170.0

217.0

535.0

4,419.5

85.0

207.0

12,107.4

507

1,381

871

1,469

557

717

808

796

816

421

557

314

741

538

465

452

651

1,013

1,386

1,041

1,110

1,342

507

1,368

871

1,444

557

717

808

796

844

421

557

314

741

540

465

452

665

772

1,292

909

1,341

800

895

916

825

857

686

565

730

772

458

734

645

715

1,108

1,312

1,040

985

1,260

772

1,289

909

1,335

800

895

916

825

880

686

565

730

772

461

734

645

722

772

1,292

909

1,297

800

942

916

849

857

686

536

730

772

458

734

645

715

1,108

1,278

1,040

985

1,231

772

1,289

909

1,293

800

942

916

849

880

686

536

730

772

461

734

645

722

570.0

613.0

1,669.0

1,460.0

1,578.0

739.0

1,935.0

610.0

85.0

806.0

209.0

131.0

818.0

5,040.0

95.0

172.3

16,530.3

17.3

603.3

15.4

42.3

678.3

570.0

630.3

1,669.0

2,063.3

1,578.0

739.0

1,935.0

610.0

100.4

806.0

209.0

131.0

818.0

5,082.3

95.0

172.3

17,208.6

820.0

560.0

1,780.0

1,500.0

2,150.0

1,020.0

2,100.0

690.0

75.0

1,100.0

190.0

330.0

860.0

4,200.0

130.0

278.0

17,783.0

9.0

370.0

13.0

40.0

432.0

820.0

569.0

1,780.0

1,870.0

2,150.0

1,020.0

2,100.0

690.0

88.0

1,100.0

190.0

330.0

860.0

4,240.0

130.0

278.0

18,215.0

 1 Production ginned and to be ginned. 2 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3 Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 5 NASS, USDA

Cottonseed: Production, United States,

2001-2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2003

State

Production

2001 2002 2003 1

1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

US 7,452.2 6,183.9 6,689.0

 1 Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2002 2003

2002 2003 2002 2003

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Oct

Nov

2,155

2,155

2,370

2,375

1,500

1,490

1,570

1,575

4,035

4,135

3,340

3,180

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 6 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted December 1, 2003 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL 7

 US

Lemons

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 US

Tangelos

 FL

270

32,000

128,000

1,530

161,800

250

19,500

102,000

210

121,960

520

51,500

230,000

1,740

283,760

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

5,900

46,700

5,900

58,660

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

18,300

21,100

2,150

200

41,000

112,000

1,350

154,550

270

21,000

91,000

220

112,490

470

62,000

203,000

1,570

267,040

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,500

5,500

8,430

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

220

39,000

134,000

1,300

174,520

250

20,000

118,000

250

138,500

470

59,000

252,000

1,550

313,020

1,400

17,000

24,000

90

5,500

41,000

5,300

51,890

600

2,500

6,700

9,800

3,000

23,000

26,000

1,300

10

1,200

5,760

65

7,035

9

731

4,590

9

5,339

19

1,931

10,350

74

12,374

70

803

1,182

5

198

1,985

236

2,424

23

83

314

420

106

695

801

97

8

1,538

5,040

57

6,643

10

788

4,095

9

4,902

18

2,326

9,135

66

11,545

59

689

956

4

188

1,645

226

2,063

16

94

261

371

114

912

1,026

106

8

1,463

6,030

55

7,556

9

750

5,310

11

6,080

17

2,213

11,340

66

13,636

63

723

1,020

3

184

1,743

212

2,142

23

94

318

435

114

874

988

59

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2

 Net

lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, Temples-90;

tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason

varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecasts. 5

 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors. 7 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties;

2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 7 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production

by State and United States, 2001-2003 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM

NY

ND

OR

SD

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

88.0

115.0

75.0

15.0

215.0

115.0

43.5

160.0

15.0

23.0

440.0

10.0

18.0

30.0

6.1

34.0

6.3

27.0

1,435.9

92.0

92.0

95.0

18.0

270.0

170.0

26.9

185.0

8.0

25.0

790.0

9.8

21.0

37.5

1.8

41.0

7.1

32.0

1,922.1

79.0

80.0

80.0

12.0

170.0

115.0

19.0

155.0

10.0

25.0

540.0

7.0

8.0

50.0

5.6

27.5

6.6

34.0

1,423.7

85.0

105.0

73.0

14.0

130.0

105.0

28.5

148.0

15.0

22.3

400.0

9.5

17.0

26.4

5.7

34.0

6.1

24.0

1,248.5

89.0

70.0

93.0

14.5

265.0

150.0

23.0

165.0

8.0

24.5

690.0

9.1

16.0

32.5

0.3

41.0

7.0

29.0

1,726.9

77.0

73.0

78.0

11.0

165.0

110.0

17.0

148.0

10.0

24.0

520.0

6.0

7.5

44.0

5.2

27.5

6.6

32.0

1,361.8

Yield per Acre 2 Production 2

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

CA

CO

ID

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NM

NY

ND

OR

SD

TX

UT

WA

WI

WY

US

1,760

1,700

1,950

1,850

600

1,500

1,320

2,150

2,000

870

1,550

1,810

1,590

1,320

300

1,700

1,800

2,140

1,569

1,980

2,170

2,050

1,100

1,850

1,650

1,570

2,100

1,800

1,360

1,540

1,730

1,630

970

1,670

2,000

1,960

2,150

1,736

1,920

1,600

2,050

2,100

1,500

1,700

1,680

2,130

1,860

1,860

1,500

1,650

1,770

1,170

310

1,910

1,970

2,320

1,678

1,496

1,785

1,424

259

780

1,575

376

3,185

300

194

6,200

172

270

348

17

578

110

514

19,583

1,762

1,519

1,907

160

4,903

2,475

361

3,465

144

333

10,626

157

261

315

5

820

137

624

29,974

1,477

1,168

1,599

231

2,475

1,870

286

3,151

186

446

7,800

99

133

513

16

525

130

742

22,847

 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 8 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Large Lima - CA

Baby Lima - CA

Navy

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

Pinto

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

14.8

12.2

3.0

65.0

48.0

95.0

1.3

1.0

213.3

4.2

8.0

1.1

84.0

8.0

1.2

3.0

109.5

0.9

0.5

0.4

1.8

98.0

22.2

13.5

7.0

13.0

11.5

53.5

15.0

286.0

2.1

2.0

1.0

6.1

4.2

22.0

557.1

19.0

21.5

5.4

85.0

67.0

2.9

180.0

4.0

1.0

345.3

3.1

3.0

1.2

77.8

5.8

0.9

2.0

93.8

2.0

0.5

0.8

3.3

76.0

35.8

9.5

25.0

13.5

80.7

8.0

515.0

1.3

3.2

5.5

1.8

11.0

27.0

813.3

19.6

17.5

3.7

40.0

36.0

1.0

75.0

0.5

1.6

1.0

158.8

3.5

8.0

1.3

84.2

8.0

0.9

2.5

108.4

0.7

0.5

0.3

1.5

0.5

68.0

31.5

12.0

11.0

21.0

13.0

50.0

10.0

410.0

1.7

1.9

1.0

5.6

7.0

29.0

673.2

14.5

11.5

2.9

30.0

44.0

85.0

1.1

0.8

163.8

4.1

3.5

0.9

79.0

7.5

1.2

2.5

98.7

0.9

0.5

0.4

1.8

89.0

21.5

12.6

4.5

12.0

10.0

47.5

15.0

261.0

1.9

2.0

0.9

5.7

4.2

20.0

507.8

18.2

21.0

5.3

84.0

58.0

2.7

151.0

3.9

0.8

305.7

3.0

3.0

1.0

67.7

4.9

0.9

1.6

82.1

1.9

0.5

0.8

3.2

57.0

35.0

9.5

22.0

12.9

76.0

8.0

460.0

1.3

2.8

4.5

0.3

11.0

25.0

725.3

19.0

17.1

3.6

38.0

35.0

1.0

71.0

0.5

1.5

0.9

151.5

3.4

8.0

1.2

79.1

7.8

0.9

2.3

102.7

0.7

0.5

0.3

1.5

0.5

63.0

30.8

11.0

10.5

20.0

13.0

48.5

10.0

397.0

1.5

1.8

0.5

5.2

7.0

27.5

647.8

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 9 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 1 Production 1

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Large Lima - CA

Baby Lima - CA

Navy

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WY

 Total

Great Northern

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 ND

 WA

 WY

 Total

Small White

 ID

 OR

 WA

 Total

Pinto

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NM

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 UT

 WA

 WY

 Total

2,250

2,040

2,170

570

1,620

1,560

2,270

1,630

1,411

2,150

570

1,440

2,260

1,710

2,250

1,840

2,136

2,220

2,200

2,000

2,167

1,720

2,420

1,860

510

1,300

2,000

2,210

2,000

1,550

2,420

2,250

1,670

300

2,240

2,200

1,717

1,840

2,390

2,250

1,930

1,800

2,520

1,550

2,460

2,250

1,735

2,170

2,000

1,200

1,900

1,510

2,220

1,750

1,882

2,000

2,400

1,880

2,031

2,250

2,380

1,930

1,350

2,220

2,250

1,800

1,560

2,310

2,610

640

1,670

2,550

2,180

1,776

1,970

2,340

2,360

1,560

1,750

2,300

1,640

1,600

1,600

2,560

1,671

2,320

1,680

2,080

2,200

1,760

2,220

2,090

2,129

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

1,200

1,610

2,280

2,100

1,430

1,650

1,950

2,100

1,860

1,480

2,000

2,110

1,600

310

2,300

2,330

1,644

326

235

63

170

713

1,327

25

13

2,311

88

20

13

1,786

128

27

46

2,108

20

11

8

39

1,530

521

234

23

156

200

1,050

300

4,050

46

45

15

17

94

440

8,721

334

501

119

1,620

1,043

68

2,340

96

18

5,304

65

60

12

1,286

74

20

28

1,545

38

12

15

65

1,282

833

183

297

287

1,709

144

7,184

30

73

29

5

280

544

12,880

374

400

85

592

612

23

1,164

8

24

23

2,531

79

134

25

1,743

137

20

48

2,186

14

10

6

30

6

1,015

702

231

150

329

254

1,019

186

5,864

30

38

8

16

161

641

10,650

 1 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 10 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 MN

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 Total

6.2

9.0

0.6

18.0

8.2

11.5

13.3

1.0

67.8

2.5

1.9

9.0

31.0

1.2

5.0

6.3

56.9

4.9

6.6

4.0

4.5

20.0

3.8

12.0

3.0

18.8

1.5

2.6

26.0

0.6

30.7

6.0

10.0

1.3

15.0

7.6

14.0

15.0

1.4

70.3

2.5

1.4

8.5

42.0

2.0

7.0

7.1

70.5

10.8

8.9

9.0

6.1

34.8

10.7

11.0

2.8

6.4

30.9

1.7

2.5

20.0

24.2

5.0

8.0

1.0

16.0

10.0

14.0

14.1

68.1

0.9

0.9

9.0

27.0

1.1

5.0

6.6

50.5

0.9

12.9

8.5

8.5

4.3

35.1

11.5

19.0

1.5

3.7

35.7

1.5

1.9

12.0

15.4

6.2

8.4

0.6

11.0

7.7

11.0

13.1

1.0

59.0

2.5

1.8

7.0

29.0

1.2

4.7

6.1

52.3

4.8

5.6

3.8

4.5

18.7

3.7

6.5

3.0

13.2

1.5

2.6

12.0

0.5

16.6

6.0

8.0

1.3

14.5

7.2

13.7

14.7

1.4

66.8

2.5

1.4

8.0

38.0

2.0

5.1

7.0

64.0

10.6

8.3

7.8

6.1

32.8

10.5

11.0

2.4

6.4

30.3

1.7

2.5

19.0

23.2

4.9

7.0

1.0

15.5

9.4

13.9

13.4

65.1

0.9

0.9

9.0

26.0

1.1

4.6

6.6

49.1

0.9

12.6

8.0

7.7

4.3

33.5

11.2

19.0

1.3

3.7

35.2

1.5

1.9

12.0

15.4

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 11 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 1 Production 1

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Light Red

 Kidney

 CA

 CO

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 WA

 Total

Dark Red

 Kidney

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NY

 ND

 WI

 Total

Pink

 CA

 ID

 MN

 ND

 WA

 Total

Small Red

 ID

 MI

 MN

 WA

 Total

Cranberry

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 Total

1,450

1,610

1,670

770

1,490

1,900

850

2,000

1,315

1,600

1,890

430

1,500

830

1,450

1,800

1,390

2,270

1,050

1,550

2,200

1,743

2,240

420

2,070

1,303

2,000

1,540

580

1,400

886

1,270

2,030

1,920

1,790

1,940

2,300

1,300

2,140

1,795

1,640

1,860

1,630

1,700

1,350

1,330

1,960

1,680

2,080

1,600

1,590

2,130

1,851

2,150

1,890

1,080

2,270

1,997

1,350

1,840

1,530

1,547

1,330

1,460

1,600

1,540

1,490

2,100

1,890

1,700

1,780

1,560

1,330

1,850

1,820

1,520

1,970

1,731

1,000

2,270

1,600

1,690

2,350

1,952

2,080

1,470

1,150

2,320

1,744

1,670

1,100

1,180

1,221

90

135

10

85

115

209

112

20

776

40

34

30

435

10

68

110

727

109

59

59

99

326

83

27

62

172

30

40

70

7

147

76

162

25

260

140

315

191

30

1,199

41

26

130

646

27

68

137

1,075

220

133

124

130

607

226

208

26

145

605

23

46

290

359

65

102

16

239

140

292

253

1,107

16

14

120

480

20

70

130

850

9

286

128

130

101

654

233

280

15

86

614

25

21

142

188

 1 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 12 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Black

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Small Chickpeas 1

(Garbanzo, Smaller

 than 20/64 in.)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

 Large Chickpeas 1

(Garbanzo, Larger

 than 20/64 in)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

0.6

63.0

2.0

1.1

6.7

19.0

2.0

94.4

12.0

20.0

32.0

4.0

110.0

11.9

2.3

6.0

60.0

2.6

196.8

12.6

22.0

34.6

0.4

1.3

45.0

4.9

1.0

8.2

22.0

1.5

84.3

16.5

34.0

50.5

1.7

2.5

1.0

1.0

0.3

6.5

9.7

7.6

3.0

2.2

4.0

2.4

0.8

7.9

37.6

0.6

52.0

1.3

1.0

6.3

18.0

2.0

81.2

12.0

17.5

29.5

3.9

108.0

10.0

2.1

5.8

51.0

2.6

183.4

12.4

20.0

32.4

0.4

1.3

43.0

4.6

1.0

7.9

21.0

1.5

80.7

16.1

30.0

46.1

1.6

1.7

0.9

0.8

0.3

5.3

9.4

7.2

2.0

2.0

3.8

2.0

0.7

7.9

35.0

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 13 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 1 Production 1

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Black

 CA

 ID

 MI

 MN

 NE

 NY

 ND

 WA

 Total

Blackeye

 CA

 TX

 Total

Small Chickpeas 2

(Garbanzo, Smaller

 than 20/64 in.)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

Large Chickpeas 2

(Garbanzo, Larger

 than 20/64 in)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

2,170

640

1,230

2,200

940

1,600

2,500

964

2,420

1,500

1,875

1,950

1,880

1,300

1,810

1,570

1,350

2,310

1,698

2,520

1,150

1,676

1,750

1,850

1,580

1,700

2,000

1,800

1,320

2,270

1,564

2,210

1,300

1,618

1,000

820

1,560

1,130

1,000

1,057

1,085

960

700

700

1,580

1,200

1,140

1,020

1,063

13

335

16

22

59

288

50

783

290

263

553

76

2,030

130

38

91

689

60

3,114

313

230

543

7

24

680

78

20

142

277

34

1,262

356

390

746

16

14

14

9

3

56

102

69

14

14

60

24

8

81

372

 1 Clean Basis. 2 Estimates began in 2003.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 14 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003

Class

and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

 Chickpeas, All

 (Garbanzo)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

 Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NY

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

29.0

28.8

31.5

6.3

19.0

5.0

12.1

17.0

148.7

9.8

8.0

1.5

1.5

7.0

4.5

0.5

3.6

1.8

4.0

2.4

2.6

9.0

0.7

1.0

57.9

18.5

17.0

12.7

8.6

4.0

10.3

11.0

82.1

10.2

6.0

1.0

18.0

8.0

3.6

0.7

7.3

2.0

4.6

4.0

3.5

10.0

0.8

2.0

81.7

9.7

9.3

5.5

2.2

5.0

2.4

1.8

8.2

44.1

6.5

4.0

1.8

10.0

4.8

0.5

2.6

1.6

6.5

1.9

2.7

15.0

1.6

1.5

61.0

27.0

28.0

18.0

6.0

16.5

4.7

11.3

17.0

128.5

9.8

7.6

1.5

1.4

3.5

4.0

0.5

3.5

1.7

3.5

2.4

2.6

8.0

0.7

0.7

51.4

18.0

16.6

9.6

6.2

3.7

5.8

11.0

70.9

9.2

5.0

1.0

14.5

8.0

3.1

0.5

2.8

2.0

4.0

3.6

3.5

8.0

0.8

1.6

67.6

9.4

8.8

3.7

2.0

4.7

2.0

1.5

8.2

40.3

6.3

3.0

1.8

10.0

4.5

0.3

2.5

1.6

6.2

1.5

2.7

13.5

1.6

1.3

56.8

--continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 15 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial

Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 (continued)

Class

and

State

Yield per Acre 1 Production 1

2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003

Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

 Chickpeas, All

 (Garbanzo)

 CA

 ID

 MT

 NE

 ND

 OR

 SD

 WA

 Total

 Other

 CA

 CO

 ID

 KS

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NY

 ND

 OR

 SD

 TX

 WA

 WY

 Total

1,270

1,470

950

800

1,400

1,340

1,250

1,200

1,254

1,460

1,580

2,070

1,790

570

1,530

1,000

2,000

760

1,400

2,170

2,270

880

2,000

2,140

1,453

1,600

1,280

740

1,470

760

430

1,120

1,182

2,020

1,500

2,100

1,100

1,530

1,550

600

1,750

1,200

1,400

2,420

1,910

700

2,130

2,130

1,487

1,085

966

757

700

1,574

1,200

1,130

1,024

1,062

1,860

1,700

2,220

1,380

1,400

1,330

1,600

1,940

1,350

1,800

2,000

850

2,060

2,310

1,456

342

412

171

48

231

63

141

204

1,612

143

120

31

25

20

61

5

70

13

49

52

59

70

14

15

747

288

212

71

91

28

25

123

838

186

75

21

160

122

48

3

49

24

56

87

67

56

17

34

1,005

102

85

28

14

74

24

17

84

428

117

51

40

138

63

4

40

31

84

27

54

115

33

30

827

 1 Clean Basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 16 NASS, USDA

Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2003

Crop and State

Utilized Production

2001 2002 2003

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 1

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

Native & Seedling

 AL

 AR 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

All Pecans

 AL

 AZ

 AR 2

 CA 2

 FL 2

 GA

 KS 2

 LA

 MS 2

 NM

 NC 2

 OK

 SC 2

 TX

 US

10,000

21,000

1,950

3,700

1,200

85,000

3,500

3,000

60,000

2,700

2,000

2,500

50,000

246,550

5,000

650

2,100

25,000

2,200

10,500

1,500

500

18,000

1,500

25,000

91,950

15,000

21,000

2,600

3,700

3,300

110,000

2,200

14,000

4,500

60,000

3,200

20,000

4,000

75,000

338,500

4,000

16,000

1,200

3,800

500

42,000

2,000

2,100

36,000

1,500

1,500

120

20,000

130,720

1,000

500

900

3,000

2,900

4,000

900

400

8,500

80

20,000

42,180

5,000

16,000

1,700

3,800

1,400

45,000

2,900

6,000

3,000

36,000

1,900

10,000

200

40,000

172,900

7,000

23,500

1,800

3,700

500

50,000

5,000

3,500

55,000

2,100

2,000

1,300

49,000

204,400

1,000

1,500

1,600

10,000

2,300

10,000

1,500

400

10,000

200

21,000

59,500

8,000

23,500

3,300

3,700

2,100

60,000

2,300

15,000

5,000

55,000

2,500

12,000

1,500

70,000

263,900

 1 Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 17 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use,

State, and United States, 2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2003

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2002 2003 2002

2003

2002 2003

Nov 1 Dec 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI

 LA

 TX

 US

442.0

21.3

465.0

43.6

971.9

19.0

1.4

30.0

0.9

51.3

461.0

22.7

495.0

44.5

1,023.2

421.0

20.5

460.0

42.4

943.9

20.0

1.5

30.0

1.4

52.9

441.0

22.0

490.0

43.8

996.8

38.3

99.0

28.3

39.1

34.9

38.1

35.5

28.3

30.0

32.2

38.3

95.1

28.3

38.9

34.7

40.0

95.0

30.0

36.9

36.2

39.5

99.2

30.0

37.0

36.1

40.0

37.6

30.0

35.0

34.1

39.5

95.0

30.0

36.9

36.0

16,929

2,109

13,160

1,705

33,903

724

50

849

27

1,650

17,653

2,159

14,009

1,732

35,553

16,630

2,034

13,800

1,569

34,033

800

56

900

49

1,805

17,430

2,090

14,700

1,618

35,838

 1 Net tons.

Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

Hawaii 2001-2003

State

Area Harvested Yield Production 1

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

Acres Acres Acres Pounds Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

HI 6,300 5,900 5,900 1,270 1,270 1,470 8,000 7,500 8,700

 1 Parchment basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 18 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,071.0

79,054.0

4,995.0

450.0

3,240.0

1,395.0

9,580.0

60,468.0

41,845.0

2,909.0

15,714.0

1,459.0

785.0

191.0

1,358.0

3.4

219.0

73,923.0

2,580.0

13,957.9

13,714.0

243.9

1,427.3

21.5

1,922.1

302.7

221.0

1,304.6

15.8

87.8

62.2

1,138.8

97.2

5,299.0

79,066.0

4,601.0

630.0

3,005.0

1,368.0

9,509.0

61,700.0

44,945.0

2,915.0

13,840.0

1,121.0

583.0

96.5

1,315.0

1.6

213.0

73,585.0

2,364.0

13,631.0

13,451.0

180.0

1,364.7

20.7

1,423.7

330.0

241.0

1,274.0

14.6

85.1

64.6

1,109.7

94.0

4,129.0

69,313.0

7,490.0

64,497.0

23,135.0

41,362.0

2,093.0

220.0

3,207.0

281.0

7,299.0

352.0

45,917.0

29,751.0

2,703.0

13,463.0

1,275.0

704.0

175.0

1,296.7

3.1

196.0

72,437.0

2,180.0

12,426.6

12,184.0

242.6

1,361.1

1,023.2

428.7

11.6

1,726.9

279.7

209.0

5.9

0.3

29.3

80.2

1,270.3

15.7

86.1

59.1

1,109.4

18.0

83.5

0.4

4,688.0

71,765.0

64,379.0

23,541.0

40,838.0

2,224.0

2,978.0

339.0

7,851.0

52,839.0

36,541.0

2,869.0

13,429.0

1,085.0

572.0

94.2

1,277.0

1.5

198.0

72,538.0

2,274.0

12,107.4

11,939.0

168.4

1,345.6

996.8

413.0

11.6

1,361.8

321.0

226.0

5.9

0.2

28.3

1,252.5

14.3

82.9

60.5

1,094.8

91.0

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 19 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

54.9

130.0

14.0

2.34

3.19

1.86

56.7

12.5

6,578

24.8

50.7

9.5

35.3

38.5

29.4

29.3

1,218

17.9

705

2,561

1,461

1,520

38.0

1,142

665

651

1,342

20.4

34.7

2,055

1,414

1,736

1,517

1,200

1,270

45,000

1,990

85

362

268

271

304

373

108

154

58.9

143.2

2.50

3.34

2.01

65.0

6,656

27.3

51.0

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.7

1,425

3,205

33.8

1,152

722

715

1,231

22.8

36.0

2,044

1,241

1,678

1,560

1,012

1,470

37,000

1,898

367

282

269

320

378

226,573

9,007,659

104,979

150,962

73,824

77,138

118,628

2,755

210,960

6,955

369,758

3,360

1,619,001

1,145,602

79,450

393,949

1,552,520

6,183.9

12,569

123,450

3,320,490

4,530

297,980

2,749,340

2,489,606

17,208.6

16,530.3

678.3

27,718

35,553

880,734

164

29,974

4,242

2,508

457

7,500

14,400

58,336.6

6,818

459,802

4,206

23,294

17,985

414,317

1,942

12,865

6,100

276,087

10,277,932

160,706

78,523

82,183

144,649

198,211

9,254

400,012

2,336,526

1,707,069

96,637

532,820

1,545,709

6,689.0

4,092,700

2,451,759

2,619,497

18,215.0

17,783.0

432.0

30,624

35,838

844,298

144

22,847

5,009

2,286

8,700

7,400

53,793.9

459,241

4,027

22,305

19,360

413,549

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 20 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,424

1

801

12,374

97

420

70

8,555.6

90.0

19,500.0

7,364.0

103.0

45,900.0

2,575.4

868.5

171.0

15.7

1,090,000

19.5

172,900

303,000

282.0

1,393

2,063

1,026

11,545

106

371

59

9,351.6

90.4

6,752.4

115.0

2,618.1

933.3

190.0

14.7

1,000,000

35.0

263,900

180,000

315.0

1,239

2,142

988

13,636

59

435

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 21 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,052,180

31,992,360

2,021,430

182,110

1,311,200

564,540

3,876,930

24,470,790

16,934,250

1,177,240

6,359,300

590,440

317,680

77,300

549,570

1,380

88,630

29,915,900

1,044,100

5,648,620

5,549,920

98,700

577,610

8,700

777,850

122,500

89,440

527,960

6,390

35,530

25,170

460,860

39,340

2,144,450

31,997,220

1,861,980

254,950

1,216,090

553,620

3,848,200

24,969,370

18,188,790

1,179,670

5,600,910

453,660

235,930

39,050

532,170

650

86,200

29,779,110

956,690

5,516,330

5,443,490

72,840

552,280

8,380

607,520

133,550

97,530

515,580

5,910

34,440

26,140

449,080

38,040

1,670,970

28,050,280

3,031,130

26,101,290

9,362,500

16,738,790

847,020

89,030

1,297,840

113,720

2,953,830

142,450

18,582,150

12,039,930

1,093,880

5,448,340

515,980

284,900

70,820

524,760

1,250

79,320

29,314,530

882,220

5,028,920

4,930,740

98,180

550,820

414,080

173,470

4,690

698,860

113,190

84,580

2,390

130

11,860

32,460

514,080

6,350

34,840

23,920

448,960

7,280

33,790

170

1,897,190

29,042,580

26,053,540

9,526,810

16,526,730

900,030

1,205,170

137,190

3,177,220

21,383,410

14,787,780

1,161,060

5,434,580

439,090

231,480

38,120

516,790

610

80,130

29,355,400

920,270

4,899,740

4,831,590

68,150

544,550

403,390

167,140

4,690

573,770

129,910

91,460

80

11,470

506,870

5,790

33,550

24,480

443,050

36,830

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 22 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

2.95

8.16

31.42

5.25

7.15

4.18

2.03

0.70

7.37

1.55

3.18

21.40

2.37

2.59

1.98

1.97

1.36

1.12

0.79

2.87

1.64

1.70

2.55

1.28

0.75

0.73

1.50

45.65

77.89

2.30

1.58

1.95

1.70

1.35

1.42

50.44

2.23

0.10

40.57

30.03

30.32

34.11

41.86

0.12

17.27

3.17

8.99

5.60

7.48

4.51

2.33

7.46

1.71

3.20

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.67

1.60

3.59

2.27

1.29

0.81

0.80

1.38

51.02

80.60

2.29

1.39

1.88

1.75

1.13

1.65

41.47

2.13

41.10

31.56

30.16

35.87

42.34

4,933,040

228,805,080

95,235,350

136,950,420

66,972,010

69,978,420

1,721,880

62,480

9,568,990

176,670

9,392,290

3,048,140

44,061,990

31,178,180

2,162,270

10,721,530

704,210

5,609,940

319,270

56,000

1,506,150

2,050

135,160

74,824,770

1,129,270

3,746,730

3,599,050

147,680

25,145,350

32,253,140

399,490

7,440

1,359,600

192,410

113,760

20,730

3,400

6,530

26,460

3,090

20,856,270

190,780

1,056,600

815,790

18,793,100

880

583,550

2,770

6,011,080

261,071,500

145,790,030

71,234,870

74,555,160

2,099,570

8,990,700

235,060

10,160,770

63,589,820

46,458,800

2,630,030

14,500,980

701,120

6,068,160

1,856,420

66,725,950

1,188,180

3,965,850

3,871,790

94,060

27,781,630

32,511,690

382,970

6,530

1,036,320

227,200

103,690

3,950

3,360

24,400

20,830,820

182,660

1,011,740

878,150

18,758,270

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 23 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2002 2003 2004

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Non-Citrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,199,020

910

726,650

11,225,500

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,880,760

81,680

8,850

6,680,510

93,440

20,820

1,168,180

787,840

155,130

14,200

494,420

17,690

78,430

137,440

255,830

6,960

1,871,520

930,770

10,473,450

96,160

336,570

53,520

4,241,810

82,010

6,125,670

104,330

1,187,550

846,630

172,370

13,340

453,590

31,750

119,700

81,650

285,760

6,190

1,943,190

896,300

12,370,370

53,520

394,630

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 24 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States

during 2003. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to

obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey.

Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 1999-2003 1

State Month 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Number Number Number Number Number

AR

CA

GA

LA

MS

NC

TX

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Final

720

700

693

689

689

921

805

779

777

776

596

582

621

636

632

722

743

728

728

728

761

803

767

766

766

623

646

619

621

622

465

446

447

455

456

874

767

755

755

755

760

790

801

800

800

597

631

621

629

629

722

692

674

674

674

657

665

652

650

650

670

724

743

747

747

408

388

397

404

448

747

780

816

756

756

939

902

921

918

918

590

677

651

664

664

625

592

582

588

588

754

696

680

679

679

719

722

696

705

705

441

435

439

445

445

840

763

784

772

772

945

1,041

1,009

1,011

1,011

569

604

591

600

608

663

756

749

742

742

802

783

768

767

767

636

629

560

567

564

536

511

520

497

497

798

755

744

744

973

945

893

893

559

646

643

665

681

778

775

775

837

824

811

808

628

630

632

632

465

431

429

435

 1 Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially

opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet or row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 25 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 26 NASS, USDA

November Weather Summary

The Plains’ poorly established winter wheat crop endured unfavorable conditions for much of November. 

Across the southern half of the Plains, mostly dry weather accompanied sharp temperature fluctuations,

stressing wheat but favoring autumn fieldwork. Cold weather was more consistent on the northern High

Plains, where a widespread, generally shallow snow cover provided wheat with some protection from periodic

Arctic outbreaks. The snow also improved topsoil moisture on the northern High Plains, but provided little

relief from long-term precipitation deficits. Similar conditions were noted from the Rockies westward, where

widespread precipitation boosted early-season snow packs and was beneficial for Northwestern winter wheat. 

However, the Western moisture provided little, if any, relief from the multi-year, hydrological drought across

the Great Basin, Southwest, and Rocky Mountain States. Farther east, dry conditions persisted in the upper

Midwest, but significant rain fell along and south of a line from Iowa (excluding the northwest part of the

State) to Michigan. Wet fields in Michigan and elsewhere in the eastern Corn Belt slowed late-season corn

harvesting, but maintained adequate to locally excessive soil moisture for winter wheat. Meanwhile, autumn

fieldwork neared completion from the Delta westward, where locally heavy, late-month showers aided

pastures and winter grains. Mostly dry weather prevailed, however, in the southern Atlantic region, allowing

winter wheat planting and cotton and soybean harvesting to proceed with few delays.

Monthly temperatures averaged as much as 11 degrees F below normal on the northern Plains, suppressed by

persistent snow cover and several cold outbreaks. Cool weather also prevailed in the West (as much as 5

degrees F below normal), excluding the southern Rockies. In contrast, mild conditions were prevalent across

the South and East, where readings generally ranged from 1 to 5 degrees F above normal.

November Crop Summary

Temperatures averaged above normal across most of the eastern half of the Nation during November, though

freezing temperatures reached as far south as the Gulf Coast. The southern and central Great Plains and

southern Rocky Mountains had normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Average temperatures were

below normal in the Pacific Northwest, Southwest, and western Corn Belt. In the northern and central Rocky

Mountains and northern Great Plains, temperatures were well below normal, averaging less than 30 degrees

Fahrenheit across most of those regions. Precipitation was moderate in the Southeast, except along the

Atlantic Coast, where dry conditions prevailed. Rainfall was also moderate across most of the Northeast,

Ohio Valley, central Corn Belt, and Mississippi Delta, with pockets of heavy precipitation in the southern

Appalachians and Louisiana. The Great Plains and Southwest had very little precipitation throughout the

month. In the Rocky Mountains, rainfall was light in most areas but pockets of moderate precipitation existed

in some locations. Though rainfall was heavy in the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest, crop-producing

areas of the region had only light precipitation.

As of November 16, ninety-five percent of the corn crop was harvested, 3 percentage points ahead of last year

at this time but the same as the 5-year average. Weather conditions were generally favorable for harvest

across most of the major producing areas, and harvest progress was well ahead of normal across the northern

Great Plains and in Colorado. Harvest was well behind normal in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley,

despite rapid progress during the month. Progress was over 1 week behind normal in Indiana and Michigan.

The sorghum crop continued to lag behind normal during November. By midmonth, 95 percent of the crop

was mature, compared with 99 percent a year ago and 100 percent for the 5-year average. On November 23,

eighty-eight percent of the crop was harvested, 1 percentage point behind last year and 8 points behind

normal. In Texas, where much of the crop was planted late behind a failed cotton crop, maturity and harvest

were 5 weeks behind normal. Kansas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma producers were over 1 week behind their

normal harvest pace. Harvest was complete or nearly complete in all other States.

As of November 9, soybean harvest was 95 percent complete, 5 percentage points ahead of last year and

1 point ahead of the 5-year average. Soybean harvest approached completion across most of the Corn Belt,

ahead of the normal pace. However, harvest remained active in Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina,

and Tennessee, where producers were well behind their normal harvest pace.

At midmonth, 95 percent of the peanut crop was harvested, compared with 86 percent a year ago and

92 percent for the normal. With little rain to slow fieldwork, harvest progressed rapidly early in the month. 

Harvest was at or near completion by midmonth in the Southeast and along the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Texas
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 27 NASS, USDA

growers, at 80 percent, had made the least progress to that point but were ahead of their normal pace of

72 percent and well ahead of last year’s 58 percent.

At the beginning of the month, 97 percent of the cotton crop had reached the bolls opening stage, slightly

behind last year and the 5-year average of 98 percent. At that time, 55 percent of the crop was harvested, over

1 week behind normal. By November 23, the cotton harvest, at 78 percent complete, was still 1 week behind

normal. Harvest progress steadily advanced, promoted by generally favorable weather conditions, but trailed

the normal pace due to the crop’s late development and maturity. Missouri producers were 2 weeks behind

their normal harvest progress, while 6 other States were over 1 week behind. Louisiana growers had

completed their harvest by midmonth, followed a week later by Mississippi producers. Both States finished

ahead of their normal pace. Growers in Alabama and California were also harvesting their crop ahead of the

normal pace.

On November 9, ninety-five percent of the winter wheat acreage was planted, 3 percentage points above last

year and the average. By November 23, acreage emerged, at 92 percent, was 1 point ahead of last year and

3 points ahead of normal. Most States began the month ahead of their normal planting pace and, by

November 23, emergence was at or near completion throughout most of the Corn Belt and Great Plains. 

However, dry, cold conditions slowed emergence in the northern Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest. In

some areas, cold weather brought on dormancy before emergence could be completed.

The sugarbeet harvest was 97 percent complete on November 2, five percentage points ahead of a year ago

and 4 points ahead of normal. North Dakota growers had completed their harvest, with Minnesota producers

close behind, at 99 percent complete. Idaho and Michigan growers were well ahead of normal, with 90 and

94 percent of their crop harvested, respectively.

On November 9, the sunflower crop was 97 percent harvested, compared with 75 percent last year and

87 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest was well ahead of normal and nearly complete in the Dakotas and

was 21 percentage points ahead of normal in Colorado. Kansas producers, however, continued to lag behind

their normal pace.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 11.9 million acres, is unchanged from the November estimate but

2 percent less than last year. American-Pima harvested area, at 168,400 acres, is also unchanged from

November but down 31 percent from the 2002 harvested acres. 

In the Southeastern States, growers were able to make significant harvest progress despite the frequent

showers. Early November temperatures were above normal in North Carolina and Virginia, which enabled

more of the top crop to open. Objective yield data show above average boll counts in Georgia and the highest

average boll weight of the previous five years. North Carolina boll counts and average weight remain near

average.

The Delta Region cotton harvest continued under optimal conditions. Lower Delta growers were virtually

done with the harvest by the middle of the month and north Delta producers made significant progress. Boll

counts and average boll weights in Mississippi remain the highest in the 15-year data series. Louisiana’s boll

counts are the highest since 1992. Average weight per boll is above average. Boll counts in Arkansas

continue slightly below the 15-year average and the lowest since 1999. However, Arkansas boll weights are

the highest since 1994. 

A series of cold fronts passed through Texas and Oklahoma during the first half of November interrupting the

cotton harvest. Clear weather returned and the harvest resumed. However, regrowth on some acreage forced

some producers to re-apply defoliants rather than wait for the killing freeze. Objective yield measurements

show Texas boll counts are the lowest since 1995. Average boll weights, however, are the highest in the

15-year data series.

Harvest of upland cotton in California was nearing completion by the end of November despite the cool, wet

conditions early in the month. The Arizona harvest was delayed due to frequent scattered showers. Arizona

producers are as much as two weeks behind in the cotton harvest. Data from objective yield measurements

show California boll counts are the third highest in the 15-year data series, surpassed only by the previous two

years. Boll weights are below the 15-year average, but the highest since 1998. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 28 NASS, USDA

American-Pima production is forecast at 432,000 bales, down 2 percent from the November forecast and

36 percent lower than last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,231 pounds per harvested acre. California

growers are expecting a yield of 1,278 pounds. Harvest progressed normally during most of November. Midmonth rains briefly interrupted the harvest in California and central Arizona. Scattered showers toward the

end of November slowed the harvest in Arizona, New Mexico, and west Texas areas. 

All cotton ginned prior to December 1 totaled 13,477,200 running bales, compared with 12,367,650 running

bales ginned by the same date last year and 15,564,150 running bales ginned in 2001.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.18 million pounds for November, 5 percent lower

than last month and 23 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,375 acres, virtually unchanged from

last month but 10 percent more than November 2002. Harvested area totaled 1,575 acres, virtually

unchanged from last month but 6 percent higher than last November. Weather conditions were variable

during November with cooler temperatures, shorter days, and cloudy skies slowing crop progress. Soil

moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards.

Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 22.8 million cwt for 2003, down 3 percent from

the October forecast and 24 percent below last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.36 million acres,

4 percent below the last forecast and down 21 percent from 2002. The average U.S. yield is forecast at

1,678 pounds per acre, an increase of 13 pounds from the October forecast but 58 pounds below a year ago. 

Production is below a year ago in 12 of the 18 producing States. Most notable is a 50 percent production

decrease in Michigan where planted acres are the lowest on record. Also, Oregon’s production is down

49 percent due to drought conditions. Production is down from a year ago for black, small white, navy,

garbanzo, cranberry, small lima, dark red kidney, pinto, and light red kidney. Production increased from last

year for great northern, blackeye, large lima, pink, and small red.

Production in North Dakota is forecast at 7.8 million cwt, 27 percent below 2002. The average yield, at

1,500 pounds per acre, is down 40 pounds from last year and harvested acres decreased 25 percent. Harvest

was virtually complete by the second week of October. Mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures

helped to push the crop harvest ahead of average by a week. 

In Michigan, production is forecast at 2.48 million cwt, 50 percent below last year. The average yield of

1,500 pounds per acre is 350 pounds below 2002. Planted acreage of 170,000 acres is a record low for the

State. Harvest of dry beans began in early September. Dry conditions before harvest helped to lessen the

effect of white mold but had a negative effect on pod fill. New York produced 446,000 cwt of dry beans,

34 percent above last season. Growing conditions were excellent this year. 

Nebraska’s production is forecast at 3.15 million cwt, down 9 percent from 2002. Average yield in Nebraska

is forecast at 2,130 pounds per acre, 30 pounds more than last year. However, harvested area is 10 percent

below last season. Production in Colorado, at 1.17 million cwt, is down 23 percent from 2002. The average

yield of 1,600 pounds per acre is 570 pounds below 2002. Growing conditions were generally good for

irrigated acres, but dryland beans were stressed from high temperatures in July and a general lack of moisture

for most of the growing season. 

In Idaho, production is forecast at 1.60 million cwt, a decrease of 16 percent from 2002. Average yield, at

2,050 pounds per acre, is unchanged from last year. Severe heat in July adversely affected some classes but

the majority of beans in Idaho were unaffected. The Washington dry bean crop is 36 percent lower than last

year with lower yields and less harvested acreage. Production in California is forecast at 1.48 million cwt,

down 16 percent from 2002. The season began well but extremely hot weather during mid-season lowered

yields. Texas dry bean production is forecast at 513,000 cwt, up 63 percent from last year. A large amount of

acreage was planted to dry beans in June and July following failed cotton. Utah experienced drought

conditions in 2003 for the fifth consecutive year which has lowered yields. Oregon’s season was dry, causing

non-irrigated acreage to dry up and irrigated acreage to suffer.

Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 2.14 million tons, down 2 percent from the October 1 forecast

but 4 percent above last season’s final utilization. Florida’s grapefruit forecast is 41.0 million boxes

(1.74 million tons), 2 percent below the October forecast. Colored grapefruit utilization is reduced 1 million

boxes to 24.0 million (1.02 million tons), down 4 percent from the previous forecast but 7 percent above last
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 29 NASS, USDA

season’s final utilization. The reduction in the forecast is based upon smaller fruit size than estimated in

October and an increase in fruit droppage. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 17.0 million boxes

(723,000 tons) but is 5 percent above last season. Fruit growth rate has slowed and fruit size is expected to be

smaller than previously estimated. Fruit droppage however, is estimated at 8.5 percent, down from 9 percent

in October. These factors offset any change in the white grapefruit forecast. Forecasts for Arizona,

California, and Texas are carried forward from October.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2003-04 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), 45 percent

less than last season’s utilized production and the smallest harvest since the 1965-66 season. Average fruit

per tree is down 52 percent, and, as a result, average fruit sizes at harvest are near the largest of the 10 season

series. Fruit droppage is below average and near the lowest in the series.

Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 435,000 tons, up 1 percent from the October 1

forecast and 17 percent above last season’s utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop is increased

100,000 boxes, to 6.70 million boxes (318,000 tons), 22 percent above last season’s utilization of

5.50 million boxes. Harvest of Fallglo tangerines is complete and Sunburst harvest for the holiday season is

underway. Honey tangerine harvest has not yet begun. Average fruit size is the largest of the previous

10 seasons and droppage is expected to be slightly less than estimated in October. Arizona and California

forecasts are carried forward from October 1.

Temples: Florida’s Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged

from October but 8 percent above last season’s final utilization. If attained, the crop would be the third

lowest since the freeze affected 1989-90 harvest. Fruit size and droppage are expected to be near average.

Florida Citrus: November was dry with mostly warm days and nights during the first half of the month. 

Most stations reported less than two inches of rainfall during the month. However, cumulative amounts for

the year are still above normal levels. Growers continued to irrigate on a regular basis to maintain surface soil

moisture levels. The first cold front of the winter passed through the State in late November. Temperatures

reached the low to mid-forty’s on two occasions. Citrus crops in all areas made excellent progress with no

major problems reported. Good to excellent fruit sizes were reported. Growers conducted typical fall cultural

practices including weed and cover crop control and dead tree removal and replacement. All fresh fruit

packinghouses were packing Navel and Hamlin oranges, white and colored grapefruit, and Sunburst

tangerines. By the end of the month shipments of Fallglo tangerines were complete. All processors opened to

receive packinghouse eliminations and early field run oranges.

California Citrus: Pre-emergent herbicide applications continued in some citrus groves. Rainfall hindered

harvest in some areas. Cooler temperatures continued to improve color and maturity. Lemons, Satsuma

mandarins, Oroblanco grapefruit hybrids, and Chandler pummelos were picked and hauled to citrus

packinghouses.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Pruning, cultivating, and spraying continued in orchards and

vineyards. Vine and tree removal and ground preparation for replacement planting occurred in many areas. 

Table grape harvesting was winding down. Red Globe, Crimson Seedless, and Autumn Royal were the

primary varieties still being picked and packed. Plastic coverings were placed in some late variety vineyards

to protect clusters from rain damage. Hayward kiwifruit and Hachiya and Fuyu variety persimmon harvest

continued. Fall strawberry harvest was complete in most areas; however, a few Central Valley strawberry

fields continued to produce fruit for sale at roadside stands. Harvest of Zutano and Bacon avocados was

underway with large sizes reported. Olive harvesting continued but is nearing completion. Pecan harvesting

was underway. Walnut harvesting continued in a few locations.

Pecans: The December 1 forecast for 2003 pecan utilized production is 264 million pounds (in-shell basis),

down 6 percent from the October 1 forecast but 53 percent above last year’s crop. Frequent rains throughout

the summer in Georgia produced extensive disease and insect pressures. Scab disease was widespread and

shuck decline added to poor nut quality. Oklahoma had dry weather during the summer and significant

wildlife damage later in the season. These two States are the contributors to the 6 percent reduction from the

October 1 forecast. The large increase from last season is related to the high year of the alternate bearing

cycle. Improved varieties are expected to make up 204 million pounds or 77 percent of the total, while the

Native and seedling varieties make up the difference.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 30 NASS, USDA

The Georgia forecast, at 60.0 million pounds, is 14 percent below the October 1 forecast but 33 percent above

last year’s crop. As harvest progressed, grower expectations of quantity and quality were reduced from earlier

in the season. Improved varieties account for all of the reduction from the October 1 forecast. The Texas

production forecast is 70.0 million pounds, equal to the previous forecast but 75 percent above last year’s

production. Growers expect good to excellent quality nuts. Fall conditions were good for pecan maturing

and harvest. New Mexico’s forecast, at 55.0 million pounds, is unchanged from the October forecast but up

53 percent from last year. Harvest began about the beginning of December.

Arizona forecasts a 23.5 million pound pecan crop, unchanged from October but 47 percent above last year. 

Harvest is expected to begin the second half of December. Oklahoma’s forecast of 12.0 million pounds is

40 percent below the October forecast but 20 percent above the production of last year. Native varieties

account for all of the reduction from October. The Louisiana forecast of 15.0 million pounds is unchanged

from October but 2.5 times the 2002 crop. A large crop was anticipated due to adequate soil moisture and the

high year of the alternate bearing cycle. Alabama pecan production, at 8.00 million pounds, remains

unchanged from the previous forecast but up 60 percent from 2002.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.8 million tons, 1 percent below the

November forecast but 1 percent above last year. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 996,800 acres for

sugar and seed during the 2003 crop year. This is 200 acres less than the previous month and down 3 percent

from last year. Yield is forecast at 36.0 tons per acre, down 0.2 ton from the November forecast but up

1.3 tons from last year’s estimate.

In Florida, mild conditions allowed harvest to stay on schedule. The Louisiana harvest is in full swing,

though some cane had lodged because of wet weather in late November slowing harvest progress.

Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 8.70 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 2003-04

season, up 16 percent from the previous crop year. Harvested area is estimated at 5,900 acres, unchanged

from the 2002-03 season. Increased production from the islands of Kauai, Maui, Molokai, and Oahu is

expected to more than offset lower production from the island of Hawaii. Improved cultural practices and

adequate irrigation is expected to boost production on these islands. Hawaii Island experienced dry weather

during the flowering and maturing stages and production is expected to be lower as a result of the adverse

weather. Harvest on Hawaii Island began earlier than usual and a shorter harvest season is expected.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 31 NASS, USDA

Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecast

Cotton Survey Procedures: Objective yield surveys were conducted between November 24 and

December 1 to gather information on expected yields as of December 1. The objective yield survey for cotton

was conducted in producing States that usually account for approximately 75 percent of the U.S. production. 

At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field,

another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the December 1 forecast was conducted

in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of

bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement

and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California,

and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. 

California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for

Valencia oranges.

Cotton Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield estimates for cotton were reviewed

for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. For cotton, reports from cotton ginners

in each State were also considered. Each cotton State Statistical Office submits their analyses of the current

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to

prepare the published December 1 forecast.

Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for

errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida State Statistical Office submits

its analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida

survey data and their analyses to prepare the published December 1 forecast. Reports from growers and

packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. The December 1 orange

production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from October. 

Revision Policy: The December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. For cotton, a new estimate will

be made in January followed by end-of-season revisions in May. Administrative records are reviewed and

revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a

production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the

last estimate.

For oranges, the December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root

Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between

the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. 

The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of

the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made

concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming

that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means that

chances are 2 out of 3 that the current cotton production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate

by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not

exceed 3.0 percent. 

Changes between the December 1 cotton forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have

averaged 216,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast for cotton has been

below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. The difference does not imply that the December 1

forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 32 NASS, USDA

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 orange production forecast is 11.0 percent. However, if

you exclude the five freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 4.4 percent. This means that chances

are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by

more than 11.0 percent or 4.4 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent

confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 19.0 percent or 7.8 percent, excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the December 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have

averaged 620,000 tons (368,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 17,000 tons to 2.39 million tons

(17,000 tons to 752,000 tons, excluding freezes). The December 1 forecast for oranges has been below the

final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The

difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final

production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

December 2003 33 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Jim Smith - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-2127

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 12, 2004.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of

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To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten

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USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.

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