Cotton: Marketing Year Average Price Received by Farmers,
and Value of Production

Value
f

Crop

0
and Production

Dollars 1,000 Dollars
Upland
AL 0.637 0.687 117,106 123,660
AZ 0.659 0.699 205,292 270,094
AR 0.632 0.653 258, 159 338,829
cA 0.718 0.757 917,087 993,426
FL 0.650 0.680 9,048 15,667
GA 0.651 0.692 106,868 134,525
KS 0.570 0.631 55 212
LA 0.639 0.657 266,233 371,179
MS 0.629 0.644 469,486 571,872
MO 0.647 0.653 83,541 98,420
NM 0.700 0.708 26,880 32,285
NC 0.627 0.690 42,435 87,106
OK 0.570 0.631 47,333 115,700
sc 0.655 0.682 48,418 47,467
TN 0.630 0.663 143,942 157,529
TX 0.590 0.630 812,784 1,501,416
VA 0.627 0.690 813 053
US : 0.636 0.664 3,555,480 4,861,440
Amer-Pima
AZ 0.956 1.020 218,886 94,982
CA : 0.956 1.040 18,447 28,654
MS 0.670 0.900 322 691
NM 1.040 1.170 22,214 13,759
TX 1.010 1.060 62,539 41,213
US 0.971 1.040 322,408 179,299
All
AL 0.637 0.687 117,106 123,660
AZ 0.796 0.761 424,178 365,076
AR 0.632 0.653 258,159 338,829
CA 0.722 0.763 935,534 1,022,080
FL 0.650 0.680 9,048 15,667
GA 0.651 0.692 106,868 134,525
KS 0.570 0.631 55 212
LA : 0.639 0.657 266, 233 371,179
MS : 0.629 0.644 469,808 $72,563
MO : 0.647 0.653 83,541 98,420
NM 0.822 0.803 49,094 46,044
NC 0.627 0.690 42,435 87,106
OK 0.570 0.631 47,333 115,700
sc 0.655 0.682 48,418 47,467
TN 0.630 0.663 143,942 157,529
TX 0.604 0.637 875,323 1,542,629
VA 0.627 0.690 813 2,053
US 0.662 0.678 3,877,888 5,040,739
1/ Average to Apr 1, 1991.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 A-20 NASS, USDA


Tobacco by Class and Type 1/

Class and Type

Area Harvested :

1,000 Pounds

Class Fl ye-cured
Typ pe ii, Old and
idle” Belts
VA

US
"Bie 12, Eastern NC
rel 3 NC Border &

x
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
L
GA
US
Total 11-14

Class 2, Fire-cured
Ty; e 2i, VA Belt

Es Pee Eastern

wh, 23, jhestern
ist riét

us
Total 21-23
Class 3, Air- cured
Class 3a, Light

Air-cured
Type 31, Burley

Type 32, Southern MD
elt 2/

MD

PA

US
Total 31-32

190,610
713595
262;205

265,430

72,080
103,680
175,760

17,755
87,200
104; 955
808; 350

2,480

5,983
123480
18; 463

221,540
84,800
306,340

319,950

80,150
109,905
190,055

19,044
103,845
122/889
939; 234

--continued

See footnotes on page A-17.

Crop Production
May 1991

1989 1990
Acres
: 98,000 106,000
: _37;000 40,000
+ 135}000 146;000
: 127,000 135,000
34,000 35,000
48,000 51,000
82;000 86,000
6,700 6,900
: 403000 433000
: 46;700 49;900
: 390;700 416,900
2,000 2,100
3,100 3,150
6,500 6,600
93600 9,750
3,000 3,100
500 490
3,500 3,590
153100 153440
: 6,100 400
: 1693000 185,000
> 2350 *600
7,700 8,200
93100 9,700
38,000 46,000
10;500 113000
13450 3700
: 2442380 2707600
7,300 7,100
43000 _ 3,600
+ 113300 103700
: 2553650 281,300
A-14

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Farm Marketings of Upland Cotton, by States, 1989 Marketing Year

Aug : Sep
AL : 1.7 0.2
AZ : 3.1 2.7
AR : 0.7) 1.1
CA : 1.3 5.3
GA :1.7 0.2
LA : 0.7) 0.8
MS =: 1.0 0.5
TN : 1.5 0.9
TX :10.3 9.5
US 4.1 4.5

Jan : F
Percent
19.3 6.1
7.9 11.3
9.6 5.9
9.5 7.5
8.0 8.2
11.3. 3.9
14.0 5.6
9.8 7.7
14.0 9.7
11.8 7.4

HK OUHONANO

Jun : Jul
2.8 0.1
0.7 3.0
2.30 1.1
0.5 1.5
0.1 2.4
2.7 1.2
6.0 2.9
1.5 0.8
1.7 2.3
2.2 1.9

D

lec

Class -
Flue-cured:
FL : 20
GA : 19
NC 2 7
sc : ll
VA : 2

Class -
Fire-cured:
VA :
KY
TN

Class -
Air-cured :
IN :
KY
MD 1/
MO
NC
OH
PA 1/
TN
VA
WV

23

23
36

33
47
27

49
50
35

64

33
32

30
34
28

37
32
33

13
42
49

55
50

100
100
100

lf Sales are not complete for the 1990 crop.

Crop Production
May 1991

A-24

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Winter Wheat

Area Harvested

State > Ind
1990 > 1991
1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AL 190 130 35.0 35.0 6,600 6,650 4,550
AZ 54 34 =—«95.0 91.0 3,162 5,130 3,094
AR 1,400 980 35.0 39.0 52,800 49,000 38,220
CA 560 360 76.0 80.0 43,890 42,560 28,800
co 2,550 2,400 33.0 29.0 57,200 84,150 69,600
DE 60 65 51.0 52.0 3,108 3,060 3,380
FL 55 35 33.0 31.0 1,885 1,815 1,085
GA 590 490 35.0 38.0 22,400 20,650 18,620
ID 920 770 75.0 68.0 56,700 69,000 52,360
IL 1,900 1,500 48.0 54.0 105,020 91,200 81,000
IN 970 800 52.0 56.0 51,920 50,440 44,800
IA : 75 70 45.0 45.0 3,290 3,375 3,150
KS : 11,800 10,800 40.0 34.0 213,600 472,000 367,200
KY H 500 490 40.0 47.0 22,500 20,000 23,030
LA : 390 260 33.0 30.0 10,850 12,870 7,800
MD : 190 195 52.0 53.0 8,600 9,880 10,335
MI 3 750 510 55.0 50.0 33,920 41,250 25,500
MN : 85 50 30.0 35.0 4,560 2,550 1,750
MS : 520 300 30.0 34.0 15,300 15,600 10,200
MO : 2,000 1,550 38.0 46.0 86,950 76,000 71,300
MT : 2,500 2,100 35.0 30.0 54,000 87,500 63,000
NE : 2,250 2,050 38.0 34.0 55,350 85,500 69,700
NV 6 3 70.0 70.0 480 420 210
NJ 29 31 43.0 44.0 1,365 1,247 1,364
NM 325 280 25.0 22.0 4,000 8,125 6,160
NY 145 120 49.0 49.0 5,850 7,105 5,880
NC 550 500 41.0 43.0 21,420 22,550 21,500
ND 160 70 27.0 28.0 2,320 4,320 1,960
OH : 1,350 1,100 59.0 54.0 62,730 79,650 59,400
OK : 6,300 5,200 32.0 26.0 153,900 201,600 135,200
OR 3 910 805 60.0 57.0 48,900 54,600 45,885
PA : 210 175 50.0 51.0 7,955 10,500 8,925
sc H 380 285 38.0 41.0 17,835 14,440 11,685
SD 1,600 1,300 36.0 34.0 35,100 57,600 44,200
TN 490 300 36.0 39.0 18,900 17,640 11,700
TX 4,200 2,800 31.0 24.0 60,000 130,200 67,200
UT 150 135 40.0 43.0 4,960 6,000 5,805
VA 260 235 47.0 48.0 12,650 12,220 11,280
WA 2,200 900 63.0 52.0 68,900 138,600 46,800
WV 12 11 46.0 45.0 516 552 495
WI 185 120 53.0 53.0 9,010 9,805 6,360
WY 205 195 29.0 28.0 4,246 5,945 5,460
US > 49,976 40,504 40.7 36.9 1,454,642 2,033,299 1,495,943
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 A-5 NASS, USDA



Special Features: This issue of the Crop Production report contains monthly

percent marketings of tobacco by farmers for 1990 and
cotton lint for the 1989 crop, revised 1990 acreage, yield, production, and
value of cotton lint and tobacco (by types and classes), and lint/seed ratio,
and objective yield survey data for major cotton States. Also included are
revised 1990 and final revisions for 1989 production, disposition, and value
of cottonseed; revision of 1990 almond production, and revised acreage, yield,
and production of 1990 crop bananas, papayas, and taro.

The next Crop Production report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on June 11,
1991.

The June report will carry winter wheat indicated area harvested, yield,
production, and production by classes (U.S.) as of June 1; durum wheat
indicated area harvested, yield, and production for Arizona and California;
indicated production of peaches, Bartlett pears (Pacific Coast States),
cherries (Western States), apricots, nectarines, plums (California), prunes
(California), almonds and 1990-91 citrus fruits; hops acres strung for harvest
by variety; papaya acreage and production; area harvested, yield, and
production of spring potatoes; condition of pastures and ranges, sugarbeet
pulp and products of cane harvested for sugar; revisions for acreage, yield,
and production of 1990 sugarbeets and sugarcane, production of beet and cane
sugar, and cane molasses; revised planted and harvested acres, yield, and
production for 1990 sweetpotatoes; and revised 1990 production of Bartlett
pears (Pacific Coast States) and prunes (California).

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

John D. Witzig, Chief (202) 447-2127

Field Crops Section (202) 447-3843
Bill Dowdy, Head
Kirby Cavett, Minor Oilseeds
Marty Owens, Rice, Weekly Crop Weather
Vaughn Siegenthaler, Rye, Sorghum, Wheat
Charles Van Lahr, Barley, Corn, Oats, Pasture Condition
Herb Vanderberry, Soybeans

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section (202) 447-3843
Steve Ropel, Head
Jim Brewster, Fruits, Fresh Vegetables
Arvin Budge, Potatoes, Dry Beans, Processing Vegetables
Kevin Hintzman, Fruits, Citrus, Nuts
Roger Latham, Cotton, Peanuts
Darwin Ransom, Sugar, Tobacco, Hay

Subscription Information: To subscribe to NASS reports or to order single
copies, cal] toll free, 1-800-999-6779 (weekdays

8:30-5:00 ET). You may write: ERS/NASS, P.O. Box 1608, Rockville, MD. 20849-
1608.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 B-11 NASS, USDA


Cottonseed: Production and Farm Disposition 1/

Farm Disposition :
peece-ien--------- 52-8 -=--- +a -. <2 Used for

: Production : Sales to 3 : Planting
State: 2 Oi] Mills): Other 2/ 3/
1989 : 1990 1989 1990 1989 1990 1990 199]
1,000 Tons

AL 140.0 139.0 §2.0 76.0 88.0 63.0 4.4 4.9
AZ 423.0 378.0 246.0 193.0 177.0 185.0 4.3 4.0
AR 335.0 431.0 282.0 411.0 53.0 20.0 7.3 8.8
CA :1,040.0 1,079.0 502.0 333.0 538.0 746.0 12.9 10.8
FL 10.4 17.0 9.9 16.0 0.5 1.0 4/0.5 4/0.5
GA 123.0 144.0 40.0 33.0 83.0 111.0 4.3 4.8
KS 1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0 ) af Af

LA 319.0 446.0 244.0 341.0 75.0 105.0 7. 8.
MS 601.0 732.0 580.0 716.0 21.0 16.0 12.3 13.5
MO 104.0 124.0 98.0 114.0 6.0 10.0 2.6 3.2
NM 39.0 48.0 22.0 13.0 17.0 35.0 1.4 1.5
NC 49.0 91.0 22.0 38.0 27.0 53.0 1.8 3.3
OK 74.0 150.0 68.0 138.0 6.0 12.0 4.8 4.8
Sc 54.0 50.0 33.0 24.0 21.0 26.0 1.1 1.3
T 176.0 192.0 163.0 190.0 13.0 2.0 5.5 6.5
TMX 31,189.0 1,943.0 1,003.0 1,673.0 186.0 270.0 87.7 101.7
VA 0.9 2.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 1.3 4/ 4/
US 34,677.4 5,966.5 3,365.4 4,310.2 1,312.0 1,656.3 158.2 178.1

Cottonseed: Marketing Year Average Price Received by Farmers,
Value of Production, and Value of Sales to Oil Mills 1
Price Per
Ton Production
State = - | ----------------------~----------------------~------------+------
1989
1,000 Dollars 1,000 Dollars

AL : _96.00 96.50 13,440 13,414 4,992 7,334

AZ : 111.00 136.00 46,953 51,408 27,306 26,248

AR : 97.50 106.00 32,663 45,686 27,495 43,566

CA : 93.50 148.00 97,240 159,692 46,937 49,284

FL : 90.00 100.00 936 1,700 891 1,600

GA : 105.00 127.00 12,915 18,288 4,200 4,191

KS 124.00 107.00 12 32 12 32

LA 110.00 116.00 35,090 51,736 26,840 39,556

MS 99.00 110.00 59,499 80,520 57,420 78,760

MO 95.00 107.00 9,880 13,268 9,310 12,198

NM 128.00 143.00 4,992 6,864 2,816 1,859

NC 100.00 112.00 4,900 10,192 2,200 4,256

124.00 107.00 9,176 16,0! 8,432 14,766

SC 101.00 121.00 5,454 6,050 3,333 2,904

IN 102.00 111.00 17,952 21,312 16,626 21,090

TX 119.00 116.00 141,491 225,388 119,357 194,068

VA 100.00 112.00 90 246 40 101

US 105.00 121.00 492,683 721,846 358,207 501,813

1/ 1989 crap revised, 1990 crop preliminary. 2/ Includes planting seed,
feed exports, inter-farm sales, shrikage, Josses, and other uses.
Included 4 in "other" farm disposition. Planting seed from previous
dears" crop. 4/ KS, FL, and VA combined under FL.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 A-21 NASS, USDA



U.S. WINTER WHEAT PROD
1982-1991

0 BILLION BUSHELS

2.07 199 2.06 2.03

2.00 183

NV

167 ©6156

1.60 1.52 1.46 1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Area for grain in the white wheat areas is down sharply in the Pacific
Northwest and in Michigan. Yields are lower in all four States. Washington's
1991 crop was hammered by the December freeze; east central and northeast
counties were hit hardest. Some reseeding of winter-killed wheat has occurred
in Idaho and Oregon. Dry conditions with poor sub-soil moisture are concerns
in eastern Oregon. Recent rains have caused some drown-out in Michigan.

Harvested area is down 15 percent in the major Hard Red Winter States. Yield
declines range from down 2 bushels in South Dakota to down 7 in Texas. As of
May 1, Colorado yield prospects are reasonably good but additional moisture is
needed to sustain the crop. Above normal March temperatures pushed the Kansas
crop ahead of normal and caused moisture stress in central and western Kansas.
Cool, damp weather late in April slowed eastern and central crop development.
By May 1, overall maturity progress of Kansas wheat was ahead of average.
Insect and disease problems are light. The stands affected earlier by
cutworms recovered well. Growing conditions for wheat have been ideal in most
of Nebraska since the crop broke dormancy; only minor insect and disease
problems have been reported. Conditions declined during April on the Texas
High Plains due to lack of moisture. Fields in the Blacklands and central
Texas look good. Harvest has begun in south Texas. Winter-kill damage has
been difficult to assess in Montana; some reseeding has started.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 B-3 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss (continued)

Mississippi Texas
Year : : Harvest : : : Harvest
Large Bolls  : Loss : Large Bolls Loss
1/ : Per Acre : 1/ Per Acre
Number Pounds Number Pounds
1982: 739 104 291 27
1983: 590 91 341 48
1984 2/:
1985: 662 91 423 40
1986: 611 95 391 36
1987: 717 81 473 34
1988: 726 86 463 34
1989: 710 90 369 32
1990: 693 93 489 39
1/ Total large bolls in 40 feet of row.
2/ Program temporarily suspended.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 A-23 NASS, USDA




1,000 Acres

328.0 380.0 322.0 378.0 571 476
AZ 240.0 350.0 239.0 348.0 1,303 1,110
AR 610.0 770.0 595.0 750.0 687 692
CA 1,050.0 1,100.0 1,040.0 1,090.0 1,228 1,204
FL 25.5 37.0 25.0 36.0 557 640
GA 265.0 355.0 260.0 350.0 631 555
KS 5 1.5 0.4 1.2 240 280
LA 645.0 810.0 620.0 790.0 672 715
MS : 1,050.0 1,230.0 1,020.0 1,220.0 732 728
MO : 214.0 248.0 209.0 235.0 618 641
NM H 61.0 69.0 55.0 62.0 698 735
NC 112.0 201.0 110.0 200.0 615 631
OK 370.0 380.0 340.0 370.0 244 496
sc 120.0 155.0 118.0 154.0 626 452
TN 465.0 525.0 460.0 515.0 497 461
1X 4,650.0 5,500.0 3,750.0 5,000.0 367 477
VA 7 5.3 2.6 5.3 498 562
us : 10,209.7 12,116.8 9,166.0 11,504.5 602 632
Amer-Pima:
AZ 3 245.0 125.0 244.5 124.0 936 751
CA : 18.0 25.7 17.9 25.5 1,078 1,080
MS 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.3 436 591
NM 30.3 19.3 30.2 19.3 707 609
TX 82.0 60.0 78.0 57.0 794 682
us 376.9 231.3 371.7 227.1 893 758
All
AL 328.0 380.0 322.0 378.0 571 476
AZ 485.0 475.0 483.5 472.0 1,118 1,016
AR 610.0 770.0 595.0 750.0 687 692
CA 1,068.0 1,125.7 1,057.9 1,115.5 1,226 1,201
FL 25.5 37.0 25.0 36.0 557 640
GA 265.0 355.0 260.0 350.0 631 555
KS 1.5 1.5 0.4 1.2 240 280
LA 645.0 810.0 620.0 790.0 672 715
MS 1,051.6 1,231.3 1,021.1 1,221.3 731 728
MO 214.0 248.0 209.0 235.0 618 641
NM 91.3 88.3 85.2 81.3 701 706
NC 112.0 201.0 110.0 200.0 615 631
OK 370.0 380.0 340.0 370.0 244 496
sc 120.0 155.0 118.0 154.0 626 452
TN 465.0 525.0 460.0 515.0 497 461
1X 4,732.0 5,560.0 3,828.0 5,057.0 376 479
VA 7 5.3 2.6 5.3 498 562
US 10,586.6 12,348.1 9,537.7 11,731.6 614 634
See footnote on page A-19.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 A-18 NASS, USDA


Pasture and Range Feed Condition 1/

State : Average : 1990 : 1991 :: State : Average : 1990 : 1991
1980-89 : 3 nt : 1980-89 ;: :
Percent Hi : Percent

AL 75 80 81 : NV 82 68 66
AZ 81 56 87 : NH 91 87 97
AR 83 83 87 : Nd 83 90 91
CA 83 57 61 : NM 72 56 60
co 77 75 73 : NY 84 87 88
cT 88 85 94 : NC 83 87 92
DE 85 95 105 : ND 66 38 53
FL 74 71 80 : OH 86 81 89
GA 74 74 92 : OK 78 83 71
1D 86 79 77 : OR 88 74 74
IL 84 83 93 : PA 82 79 88
IN 85 84 93 : RI 91 85 96
IA 78 81 86 : SC 76 73 88
KS 79 85 78 : SD 71 54 79
KY 84 88 97 : IN 84 88 89
LA 79 82 83 : TMX 64 77 71
ME 90 88 88 > UT 83 64 71
MD 84 94 101 : VT 91 80 93
MA 89 8 93 : VA 84 89 91
MI 87 89 90 > WA 86 81 82
MN 77 69 80 : WwW 78 82 90
MS 81 74 91 : WI 75 69 85
MO 78 87 90 2 WY 80 82 82
MT 74 80 73 :

NE 77 61 77 : US 77 75 79

1/ Good to excellent, 80 and over; poor to fair, 65-79; very poor, 50-64;
severe drought, 35-49; extreme drought, under 35.

Spring Potatoes

Area Harvested Yield Production
State

1990 1991 1990 1991 1989 1990 1991

1,000 Acres Cwt 1,000 Cwt

AL 5.7 3.9 150 170 1,296 855 663
AZ : 6.9 6.0 260 280 1,827 1,794 1,680
cA 2 22.5 20.7 375 375 7,875 8,438 7,763
Hastings : 28.7 27.0 240 190 5,460 6,888 5,130
Other : 8.3 8.4 220 175 1,400 1,826 1,470
LA 1/ 27
NC 16.2 17.0 200 175 2,184 3,240 2,975
TX 6.8 4.8 165 170 783 1,122 816
US 95.1 87.8 254 233 20,852 24,163 20,497
1/ Estimates discontinued in 1990.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 A-10 NASS, USDA


The Bureau of the Census reported 15,064,343 running bales ginned (15,482,267
equivalent 480-pound net weight bales) during the 1990 season. This compares

with 11,883,851 running bales (12,175,288 equivalent 480-pound net weight
bales) ginned in 1989.

The preliminary 1990 marketing year average price received by farmers for lint
was 67.8 cents per pound, up 1.6 cents from 1989. The value of lint for the
1990 crop totaled $5.04 billion, up 30 percent from 1989.

Cottonseed: Cottonseed production in 1999 totaled 5.97 million tons, up 28

percent from 1989. The preliminary 1990 marketing year price
received was $121 per ton compared with $105 in 1989. Value of cottonseed for
the 1990 crop totaled $722 million, up 47 percent from the previous year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 B-9 NASS, USDA


most citrus growing counties during the first four months of this year. The
bloom cycle ended the first week of April. Trees are currently adjusting to
the size crop they can carry for next season by dropping off excessive fruit.
Most trees are covered with an abundance of new foliage as a result of nearly
ideal growing conditions. Harvest of Valencia oranges was active in all areas
of the citrus belt during the month with a little more than 5.50 million boxes
per week average. Grapefruit movement slowed during the month as supplies are
running low. Temple and Honey tangerine harvesting is over for this season.
Caretakers are busy with post-bloom spraying, cutting cover crops, and
fertilizing young trees.

California Fruits and Nuts: Normal cultural activities such as pruning, fer-

tilizing, and weed control continued during
April. Thinning of stonefruit was active with sizes varying due to March
rains. Grape vineyards pushed new growth. Kiwifruit, persimmons, and
pomegranates were leafing out. Many citrus trees in the Central Valley were
showing growth and recovery from the freeze. Trees killed by the freeze were
pushed out. Picking of Navel oranges was completed during April. In Southern
California, harvest of Valencia oranges and other citrus was active. Pecans
and walnuts were leafing out, while almonds showed rapid growth.

Pasture and Range Feed Condition: The pasture and range feed condition on

May 1, for the 48 contiguous States, was 79
percent, 4 points above May 1 last year and 2 points above the 1980-89 average
for the date. Conditions were more favorable than last year in 38 States,
less favorable in 7 States, and unchanged in 3 States.

All States bordering and east of the Mississippi River reported pasture and
range condition in the good to excellent range. With the exception of
California, New Mexico, and North Dakota, which reported condition in the very
poor range, the Western States had pasture and range conditions in the poor to
fair or good to excellent ranges.

Spring Potatoes: Production of spring potatoes is forecast at 20.5 million

cwt, a drop of 15 percent from last year and 2 percent below
the 1989 crop. Area for harvest is estimated at 87.8 thousand acres, down 8
percent from a year ago and 1 percent below two years ago. The average yield,
at 233 cwt per acre, is down 8 percent from last year and 1 percent below
1989.

Harvest in California started the first week in May. Cool weather slowed the
development of earliest acreage. On the other hand, cool temperatures in
Arizona were ideal for potato development. Texas harvest started in mid-April
in the Rio Grande Valley. Good progress is seen in the Winter Garden and the
Knox-Haskell areas.

Harvest is underway in the Hastings, Florida area. Low yields on early fields
reflects February frost damage. In south Alabama, wet weather has delayed
harvest of the 1991 spring potato crop, but only minimal damage is evident.
North Carolina production wil] be down 8 percent from last year but well above
the poor 1989 crop. This year's potato crop is in mostly good condition as
planting draws to a close.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 B-6 NASS, USDA


Hay Stocks on Farms

1,000 Tons
AL : 1,125 1,232 934 285 216 124
AZ : 133 115 213 27 26 71
AR : 1,337 1,560 1,043 468 780 382
CA > 2,163 1,875 1,911 173 256 332
co > 2,374 1,898 2,207 435 587 457
CT : 113 111 135 38 31 36
DE : 41 49 51 9 7 8
FL : 421 383 375 104 126 55
GA : 953 1,199 855 314 292 148
ID > 3,648 2,183 2,287 310 485 408
IL : 1,986 2,398 2,511 563 635 502
IN : 1,233 1,774 1,510 112 355 377
IA : 4,732 5,121 5,250 1,014 1,463 1,419
KS : 3,571 4,046 4,636 725 1,012 1,037
KY : 3,277 4,676 3,927 534 1,375 873
LA : 624 601 528 107 86 46
ME 270 269 288 66 84 80
MD 484 421 515 113 94 115
MA 154 145 142 49 40 40
MI 2,405 2,811 3,041 549 1,041 1,067
MN 4,594 4,800 4,461 626 1,088 1,312
MS 1,170 1,248 807 234 265 186
MO 4,274 6,358 5,904 712 1,691 1,442
MT 2,706 3,800 3,956 307 894 1,124
NE 4,557 4,108 5,380 1,042 1,141 1,474
NV 668 658 680 109
NH 125 107 94 32 30 27
Nd 136 147 128 49 41 49
NM 383 599 482 77 80 138
NY 2,818 3,177 3,502 798 998 1,007
NC 614 859 768 112 244 182
ND 2,309 2,960 3,371 446 634 861
OH 1,878 2,322 3,142 531 637 693
OK 3,734 4,092 3,219 668 1,381 982
OR 1,591 1,243 1,498 159 318 198
PA 3,195 3,155 3,350 867 848 849
RI 11 1] 12 4 4
Sc 378 310 228 116 130 68
SD 4,614 4,505 5,670 1,173 1,287 1,890
TN 2,075 2,904 2,767 350 840 65
1X 5,778 7,570 6,800 696 2,204 1,600
UT 1,176 1,013 1,274 283 38 297
VT : 493 513 502 122 151 162
VA : 1,802 2,180 2,340 405 693 780
WA : 1,700 1,351 1,986 312 225 336
WV : 667 984 1,028 133 228 251
WI : 3,813 5,737 7,022 891 1,454 2,371
wy : 2,009 1,616 2,263 300 266 436
US : 90,312 101,194 104,993 17,507 27,089 27,056
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 A-7 NASS, USDA



Wheat Production by Classes, United States 1/

Year: Hard ;: Soft Hard : : : Total
: Red : Red : White: Red : Durum: White

1,000 Bushels

1989 : 711,040 548,919 194,683 433,455 92,229 56,292 2,036,618
1990 : 1,198,855 549,478 284,966 554,678 122,171 28,446 2,738,594
1991 2/ : 873,961 460,866 161,116

1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available
for all wheat producing states. Unless unusual situations dictate, the
previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast
season.

2/ Indicated May 1, 1991.

Durum Wheat

Area Harvested Yield Production

State : : Ind : : Ind : : : Ind

: 1990 : 1991 : 19909 : 1991 : 1989 : 1990 : 1991
1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AZ : 44 29 94.0 89.0 7,560 4,136 2,581
CA 3 54 35 99.0 95.0 8,715 5,346 3,325
MN : 30 y/ 44.0 2/ 1,044 1,320 2/
MT : 235 V/ 19.0 2/ 6,030 4,465 2/
ND : 3,050 V/ 34.0 2/ 66,000 103,700 2/
sD : 89 vi) 36.0 2/ 2,880 3,204 2/
US : 3,502 l/ 34.9 2/ 92,229 122,171 2/

1/ Available in Acreage released Jun 27, 1991.
2/ To be published in Jul Crop Production released Jul 11, 1991.

Crop Production Agricultura] Statistics Board
May 1991 A-6 NASS, USDA


Cotton: Production and Bales Ginned

Production in : Lint/ : Lint/. : Bales Ginned as
Crop : 480-1b :Seed 3/: Seed 3/: Reported by Census 4/
sine : Net Weight Bales 2/ : Ratio : Ratio : (480-1b Net Weight)
ate | :--------------~----------=~+-----------+------------------- 3-2-2 -----
: 1989: 1990 1/ 1989 1990 1989 : 1990
1,000 Bales Bales
Upland
AL 383.0 375.0 380,933 387,595
AZ 649.0 805.0 626,472 780,219
AR 851.0 1,081.0 847,413 1,077,352
CA 2,661.0 2,734.0 2,682,880 2,758,406
FL 29.0 48.0 5 5/
GA 342.0 405.0 347,778 411,500
KS 2 0.7 5, 5,
LA 868.0 1,177.0 876,065 1,190,914
MS 1,555.0 »850.0 5, 1,843,956
MO 269.0 314.0 267,167 306,138
NM 80.0 95.0 82,703
NC 141.0 263.0 144,286 269,537
OK 173.0 382.0 167,836 375,543
Sc 154.0 145.0 152,355 142,847
TN 476.0 495.0 474,425 491,523
1X 2,870.0 4,965.0 2,880,266 4,978,997
VA 7 6.2
US : 11,503.9 15,140.9 11,485,203 15,122,900
Amer-Pima:
AZ : 477.0 194.0 482,022 193,787
CA 40.2 57.4 34,308 57,414
MS 1.0 1.6 5/ 13669
NM 44.5 24.5 5/ 11,051
1X 129.0 81.0 147,773 93, 883
US 691.7 358.5 690,085 359,367
All
AL 383.0 375.0 380, 933 387,595
AZ 1,126.0 999.0 0.388 0.386 1,108,494 974,006
AR 851.0 1,081.0 0.384 0.379 847,413 1,077,352
CA 2,701.2 2,791.4 0.382 0.382 2,717,188 2,815,820
FL 29.0 48.0 5/ 5/
GA 342.0 405.0 347,778 411,500
KS 0.2 0.7 5/ 5/
LA 868.0 1,177.0 0.388 0.389 876,065 1,190,914
MS 1,556.0 1,851.6 0.382 0.381 1,549,672 1,845,625
MO 269.0 314.0 267,167 306, 138
NM 124.5 119.5 93,729 93,574
NC 141.0 263.0 144,286 269,537
OK 173.0 382.0 167,836 375,543
Sc 154.0 145.0 152,355 142,847
IN 476.0 495.0 474,425 491,523
TX 2,999.0 5,046.0 0.373 0.378 3,028,039 5,072,880
VA 2.7 6.2
4

1/ sed. Pri g and to be g . 3/ mate
only for the six states shown. Three year average. 4/ Equivalent 480-1b net
weight bales ginned, not adjusted for cross-State movement, 5/ Bales with-
held to avoid disclosure of individual gins, but are included in US totals.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 A-19 NASS, USDA



Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends
with year harvest is completed.

2/ Net Tbs. per box: oranges-CA & AZ-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-CA
Desert & AZ-64, CA Other-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos &
temples-90; tangerines-CA & AZ-75, FL-95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

5/ Due to the severe freeze of Dec 1989, the 1990-91 TX citrus crops are
virtually eliminated and forecasts will not be issued unless sufficient
commercial supplies become available.

6/ FL “all tangerines“ include Sunburst tangerines beginning with the 1989-90
season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 A-9 NASS, USDA



CROP MOISTURE
\ (SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)
May 4, 1997 FAVORABLY

i
i

i

FAVORABLY
MOIST

ab if
.

:
H

SEVERELY

teed E rtninay reper

ES
iH
E
2}

if
i
E

i

a
:
:

WOAA/USDA JOUNT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY

DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)

Crop Production

May 1991

V4, May 4, 1991 Next Chart May 21, 1991
Y
¢ 2) secant 7 ny lp
‘ 4 4) eavene. eres fo)
S Afr woist worst
SEVERE oat Ls
Tat
°
SEVEREA) gy [Varreeue f woisT
Le pose - -y fa)
1 ? BS
Wooumare SEVERE’? fy ln’
os \ -
Rt Ui
Gi y mooansts
o a
sad ‘\
H aan ’ Don
.Y
Moist ‘
on . } / a any,
SEVERITY, [oe 1 DEPICTS PRIN Nome oo - /
Teme ROLSTURE Rua e RE nN
idle hs CAPOTRARSPLIATION.
uses... APPLICABLE IN MEASURING DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS 4
RTE OR WETNESS On WATER SENT MATING DIS
HERA SHATUS OF WATER SUPPLIES "Th Ae Be Y
LIMITATIONS, ..1S NOT GENERALLY INDICA OF SUORE-TERN (Eey we
IF ei sist EA eae a ira sont serene eo

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Crop Ss Agricultural
. Statistics
Production

Service

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released May 9, 1991, by the Agricultural Statistics Board. Forecasts refer
to May 1, 1991.

Winter Wheat Production Down Sharply

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, down 26 percent
from 1990. Yields are expected to average 36.9 bushels per acre, down 3.8
bushels from Tast year. The area to be harvested as grain is expected to
total 40.5 million acres, down 19 percent from the previous year. Above
normal March temperatures pushed the Kansas crop ahead of normal and caused
moisture stress in the central and western districts.

Citrus production is forecast at 11.3 million tons, up 5 percent from the
1989-90 season. The increase is the result of higher production in Florida
following a severe freeze in December 1989. California production is off
significantly due to the December 1990 freeze. Texas has no commercial
production this season due to freeze damage.

Orange production is forecast at 7.93 million tons, down 2 percent from April
1 but up 3 percent from last season. The Florida early and mid-season and
California Navel orange harvests are complete. The Florida Valencia harvest
is 77 percent complete. Fruit droppage in Florida has been extremely high in
many areas. The California Valencia orange harvest is just beginning. Total
orange production in California is expected to be off 62 percent from last
season due to the December 1990 freeze.

All grapefruit production is forecast at 2.32 million tons, unchanged from
last month but up 17 percent from last season. Last year's small crop was due
to the Florida freeze.

Index and special features are located at the end of this report. For
additional information, call (202) 447-2127. Office hours are 8:00 to 4:30
ET.

Cr Pr 2-2 (5-91)



Papayas - Hawaii

Area Fresh Production

Month : Total in Crop): Harvested 3
Se 1990 : 1991

1,000 Pounds
Mar: 3,960 3,330 2,490 2,030 4,840 3,280

Apr: (3,955 3,435 2,435 1,940 4,780 3,765
May : 3,885 2,365 5,120
Jun: 3,850 2,370 4,285
Jul: = 3,885 2,405 3,145
Aug : 3,760 2,175 6,160

Bananas, Papayas, and Taro - Hawaii

THOM Sen nn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nnn nn nnn renner nnn tenn nn nnn n eres nar ssccce=

1990 1/ 1989

Bananas 11,900

Papayas N/A

Taro 2/: 15,100

Utilized Production
1990 1/ 1989 1990 1/
1,000 pounds

Bananas : 11,900 11,300 11,900 11,300

Papayas : N/A N/A 74,000 68,500

Taro 2/: 6,500 5,800 6,500 5,800

1/ Revised. 2/ Area harvested is average during the year. N/A = not
available.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 A-12 NASS, USDA


Sweet Cherri

Almonds (shelled basis)

Production
State Utilized
salamat nea alate taaoeeaanaetee a Ind
1989 1990 1/ 1991
1,000 Pounds
CA : 490,000 660,000 450,000
1/_ Revised. °
Avocados - Florida and Hawaii
: Bearing : Yield Production : Utilization
Year : Acreage : Per :~----------------~------- 93-52 --- enn nnn nnn
> oY : Acre Total : Utilized : Fresh Processed
Acres Tons
1989-90 : 10,600 3.16 33,500 33,500 33,500 ==>
1990-91 : 9,000 2.18 19,600 19,600 19,225 375
HI :
1989-90 : 250 2.20 550 550 550 —-
1990-91 : 250 1.80 450 450 450 ---
Price Per Ton ~ Value of Product ion
: Fresh Processed: Ail Fresh All
: Dollars 1,000 Dollars
L :
1989-90 : 332 oct 332 11,122 ot 11,122
1990-91 : 695 120 684 13,361 45 13,406
HI :
1989-90 : 760 --- 760 418 --- 418
1990-91 : 900 --- 300 405 405

1/ Bearing acreage estimates are based on periodic orchard inventory surveys.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 A-11 NASS, USDA



Yield per acre averaged 2,218 pounds per acre, compared with 2,016 last year
and 2,160 in 1988.

Flue-Cured production totaled 939 million pounds, 16 percent more than a year
ago and up 15 percent from 1988. Higher yields combined with increased
acreage resulted in the larger crop. Yield per acre, at 2,253 pounds,
exceeded last year's average by 184 pounds and was 34 pounds above 1988.
Acres harvested were up 7 percent from one year ago and 14 percent greater
than two years previous.

Burley production totaled 596 million pounds this year, up 24 percent from a
year ago and 25 percent in excess of the 1988 output. The change from last
year reflects both an acreage increase and higher yields. The 271 thousand
acres harvested was 1] percent above 1989 and up 20 percent from 1988. This
year's yield averaged 2,204 pounds per acre, 229 pounds more than a year ago
and 96 pounds above two years earlier.

Dark Fire-Cured output, at 35.0 million pounds, exceeded the previous year by
21 percent. Acreage and yield were both up. Harvested area, at 15.4 thousand
acres, was up 2 percent from one year ago. The average yield per acre of
2,265 pounds was 350 pounds higher than in 1989.

Production of Dark Air-Cured tobacco of 7.65 million pounds was up 17 percent
from a year earlier. A 352 pound per acre gain in the average yield more than
offset a 2 percent decline in acreage.

All Cigar-Type production of 30.7 million pounds in 1990 was 20 percent more
than in 1989 and 37 percent above the 1988 output. Compared with last year,
filler production was 22 percent larger. Binder production was up 19 percent.
Production of wrapper was 16 percent above a year ago.

Cotton, 1990 Revised: All cotton production in the United States totaled 15.5

million bales in 1990, 27 percent above 1989 produc-
tion. This large increase was due to both a larger acreage and higher yields.
Production was revised down 1 percent from the January estimate due to lower
bale weights, a change in the usual volume of cross-State ginnings, and
lint/seed ratios declining in most States from the previous year. Upland
cotton production, at 15.1 million bales, was 32 percent above the 1989 level,
and American-Pima production totaled 359 thousand bales. The American-Pima
crop was down 48 percent from 1989's record high production.

The area planted to all cotton totaled 12.3 million acres, a 17 percent
increase from 1989. Harvested area, at 11.7 million acres, was up 23 percent
from the previous year. Abandonment during 1990 totaled 5 percent compared
with 10 percent in 1989. Yields averaged 634 pounds per acre, 20 pounds above
1989 and up 15 pounds from the yields realized in 1988.

Plantings of the 1990 crop were earlier than normal in the Southwest and in
the Texas-Oklahoma region. The crop was planted later than normal in the
Delta States due to excessively wet fields. Standing water caused some
replanting in Louisiana and Arkansas. The Southeast region experienced dry
conditions during the season, reducing yields 77 pounds from 1989 yields.
Arizona's yield decreased 193 pounds from the previous year due to insects and
adverse weather. Harvest weather was generally favorable in all areas.
Louisiana had a record high production.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 B-8 NASS, USDA


Sweet Cherries: The first forecast of California's sweet cherry production is

29.0 thousand tons, 32 percent more than 1990 and 12 percent
more than 1989. Rain and cool temperatures during bloom had minimal impact on
the crop. Picking could be extended because of the variation in the time of
bloom. The crop is in good condition and beginning to color. Quality is
expected to be better than average.

Almonds: The May 1 forecast of the 1991 California almond crop is 450 million

pounds, shelled basis, 32 percent below last year's crop of 660
million pounds. March rains caused some bloom loss especially in late
blooming varieties. Central areas of the San Joaquin Valley appear to have
been affected the most from the wet weather. Higher than normal nut drop,
espe-cially in the larger size nuts, also resulted from the cool weather
conditions throughout the month of April. It is too early to tell how much
the drought will influence the 1991 crop especially in the southern portion of
the San Joaquin Valley.

Avocados: Total production of Florida avocados for the 1990-91 season was

19.6 thousand tons, 41 percent less than the previous crop year due
to the freeze. The average price was $684 per ton, up 106 percent from the
1989-90 average price. Bearing acreage was estimated at 9.00 thousand acres,
down 15 percent from the previous season's 10.6 thousand acres.

The 1990-91 Hawaii avocado crop totaled 450 tons, down 18 percent from the
previous season. The average price was $900 per ton, up 18 percent from last
season. Bearing acreage was unchanged from last year at 250 acres.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization for April is estimated at 3.77 mil-

lion pounds, 15 percent higher than March but 21 percent lower than
April 1990. Year-to-date sales trail the same 4-month period of 1990 by 21
percent.

Weather conditions during April were mostly favorable for papaya production.
Overcast skies, with some sunny periods, dominated the first half of the
month, while mostly sunny conditions with light showers prevailed during the
second half of April.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,435 acres, 3 percent higher than
last month but 13 percent lower than April 1990. Harvested area, at 1,940
acres, was 4 percent lower than March and 20 percent tower than a year ago.
The last time harvested area dipped below 2,000 acres was March 1981.

Losing older trees to disease continues to be a problem. Production is
expected to be off for several months as a result of the tree losses in older
orchards, as well as the overall lower acreage.

Tobacco, 1990 Revised: U.S. tobacco production totaled 1.62 billion pounds in
1990, 19 percent more than both 1989 and 1988. The
increased production from a year earlier resulted from both a larger acreage
and higher yields. Growers harvested 733 thousand acres in 1990, 8 percent
More than the previous year and 16 percent above the acreage two years ago.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 B-7 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit 1/

Production

Boxes

Utilized

Production
Ton Equivalent

Utilized

Oranges, Early Mid
& Navel

All Oranges
A

Grapefruit, White
Seedless

FL
Grapefruit, Colored

Seedless
Other Grapefruit
All Grapefruit

AZ
CA
Desert

Other areas
Total

5/:
4/:
5/
4/3

5/:

5/:
6/:
4/:

4/:

550
34,000
85,300

1,200
121,050
1,150
24,900
61,300

650

88,000

1,700
58,900
146,600
,850
209,050

3,750
27,700

23,700
3,350
1,950
3,500

380
44,100
13050
1133630
1,190
26,800
42; 100
155
70,245
1,570
70,900
110, 200
1833875

1,400
18,000

16,300
1,400
2,200
3,700

1,000 Boxes 2/

550
15,800
875500

103,850
1,100
11,000
65,000
77,100
1,650
26,800
152,500
180,950

2,500

23,000

22,000
1,600
2,300
3,500

21
1,275
3,839
5,186
43
934
2,758
28
3,763
64
2,209
6,597
79
8,949
169

1,000 Tons

14
1,654
3,064

4

4
4,776
44
1,005
1,895
7
2,951
58
2,659
4,959
51
7,727

63
765

693

21
593
3,938
4,552
41
413
2,925
3,379
62
1,006
6,863
7,931

113
978

935

Crop Production
May 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted cotton objective yield
surveys in 6 States which accounted for 83 percent of the 1990 US Upland
cotton production. Plots were randomly selected from a scientific sample of
cotton fields. Two sample plots per field were visited monthly from about
August 1 through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The
"large bolls" are total bolls counted from August through harvest. This count
includes only bolls greater than one inch in diameter and burrs.

Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss

Arizona Arkansas
Year : : Harvest Harvest
: Loss : Large Bolls Loss
Per Acre : Per Acre

1982: 1,079 134 566 81

1983: 1,215 115 546 109
1984 2/:
1985: 1,275 113 637 94
1986 : 1,249 120 587 126
1987: 1,293 179 603 77
1988: 1,176 108 717 63
1989 : 1,232 102 578 57
1990: 1,162 135 669 74
California Louisiana
1982: 773 117 7 66
1983: 723 105 530 59
1984 2/:
1985: 847 145 595 65
1986: 807 113 705 77
1987: 821 128 719 89
1988: 797 137 710 73
1989: 802 125 708 83
1990: 840 130 888 78
1/ Total large bolls in 40 feet of row. --continued
2/ Program temporarily suspended.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 A-22 NASS, USDA


Yield expectations are above last season in the major Soft Red Winter belt
except in Ohio. Missouri's wheat is generally in good condition. The crop is
heading slightly ahead of average. Indiana's crop condition has improved
after a slow start.

Durum Wheat: As of May 1, 1991, durum wheat production in Arizona and
California is forecast at 2.58 and 3.33 million bushels,
respectively. Both levels are down 38 percent from 1990.

Arizona's crop rated in mostly good condition. Heading was nearly complete
and 54 percent was turning color. Varied weather conditions resulted in less
than ideal conditions for ripening of California's durum wheat. Harvest
should be active during the later part of May.

Hay Stocks on Farms: Hay stocks on farms totaled 27.1 million tons on May 1,

1991. This is nearly the same as on hand a year earlier
but 55 percent more than the holdings on May 1, 1989. The low supply of hay
two years ago reflects the small, drought limited 1988 hay crop.

Disappearance of hay during the December 1, 1990-May 1, 1991 period totaled
77.9 million tons. This compares with 74.1 million tons during the same

period a year earlier.

Oranges: The U.S. all orange crop is forecast at 7.93 million tons for the

1990-91 season, down 2 percent from the April 1 forecast but up 3
percent from the 1989-90 season. The Florida crop is 153 million boxes, down
2 percent from April 1 but up 38 percent from last season's freeze damaged
crop. Production of early and mid-season oranges this season in Florida is
87.5 million boxes. Harvest is complete. The Florida Valencia forecast, at
65.0 million boxes, is 4 percent less than last month but up 54 percent from
the 1989-90 crop. Harvest is 77 percent complete.

The California Navel forecast is 15.8 million boxes, down 1 percent from
April 1 and 64 percent less than the 1989-90 crop. Harvest is complete.
California's Valencia forecast is 11.0 million boxes, unchanged from last
month but 59 percent lower than last season. The decrease in California Navel
and Valencia orange production is due to the December 1990 freeze.

The al? orange forecast for Arizona, which was carried forward from last
month, is expected to total 1.65 million boxes, 5 percent higher than last
season's production. Que to the severe freeze of December 1989, the 1990-91
Texas orange crop is virtually eliminated. Forecasts will not be issued this
season unless sufficient commercial supplies become available.

Changes in U.S. orange production between the May 1 forecast and final
production averaged 190 thousand tons over the past ten seasons, ranging from
a low of 17 thousand tons in the 1987-88 season to a high of 450 thousand tons
in the 1981-82 season.

Florida Frozen Concentrated Juice Yield: The 1990-91 forecast of the Frozen
Concentrated Orange Juice Yield

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 B-4 NASS, USDA


United States Crop Summary - Area Planted and Harvested
(Metric Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

Crop Hy : Indicated =: : Indicated
1990 : 1991 : 1990 : 1991
Hectares
Winter Wheat : 23,066,520 20,652,540 20,224,790 16,391,560
Spring Potatoes : 38,930 36,060 38,490 35,530

United States Crop Summary - Yield per Hectare and Production
(Metric Units)

‘Yield per Hectare: Production
Crop Indicated 1991
: indicated : : fore r enn n n-ne ne
: 1990: 1991 : 1990 3 Apr 1 : May 1
Metric Tons
Winter Wheat : 2.74 2.48 55,337,330 40,712,900
Spring Potatoes : 28.48 26.17. 1,096,020 967,690 929,730
Almonds (Calif) 1/ : 299,370 204,120
Hay Stocks on Farms: 24,574,730 2/95,248,040 24,544,790
Citrus Fruits 3/ : 1989-90 1990-91 1990-91
Oranges : 7,009,820 7,323,700 7,194,880

Grapefruit 1,797,130 2,102,85

1/ 1990 revised. 2/ December 1, 1990. 3/ Season ends with bloom of the first
year shown and ends with completion of harvest the following year.

0 2,102,850

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 A-4 NASS, USDA


Class and Type

Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3b, Dark
Air-cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt
KY
TN

US
TYPE 36, Green River
Belt

KY

Type 37, VA Sun-cured :
Beit :

VA
Total 35-37

Class 4, Cigar Filler
Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder
Class 5a, CT Valley
Binder
Type 51, CT Valley
Broadleaf
CT
MA
US

Class 5b, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI
WI

Type 55, Northern WI
WI

Total 54-55
Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigay Wrapper :

Type 61, C
Shade-grown
cT

MA

Us
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61

All Tobacco

Valley

See footnote on page A~17.

Crop Production
May 1991

Acres
1,950 2,000
500 500
2,450 2,500
1,000 900
90 80
3,540 3,480
5,500 6,400
630 570
100 90
730 660
3,500 4, 100
2,000 2,800
5,500 6,900
6,230 7,560
1,100 1,250
380 380
1,480 1,630
13,210 15,590
: 678,200 732,710
A-15

Pounds 1,000 Pounds
1,850 2,250 3,608 4,500
1,740 2,040 870 1,020
1,828 2,208 4,478 5,520
1,950 2,250 1,950 2,025
1,155 1,275 104 102
1,845 2,197 6,532 7,647
1,950 2,050 10,725 13,120
1,700 1,700 1,071 969
1,850 2,120 185 191
1,721 1,758 1,256 1,160
2,185 2,350 7,648 9,635
1,800 1,460 3,600 4,088
2,045 1,989 11,248 13,723
2,007 1,969 12,504 14,883
1,565 1,630 1,722 2,038
1,475 1,615 561 614
1,543 1,627 2,283 2,652
1,931 1,966 25,512 30,655
2,016 2,218 1,367,188 1,624,934

-~continued

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS,

USDA



Tobacco by Class and Type 1/ (continued)

:Marketing Year Average Price : Value of
:Per Pound Received by Farmers:
Class and Type Prcccte ce cee ne nnn nnn nnn nn ne nee ne nae nena
1989 1990 1990
Dollars 1,000 Dollars

Class 3, Air-cured
Class 3b, Dark

Air~cured
Type 35, One Sucker

Belt

KY 1.757 1.899 6,339 8,546

TN 1.748 1.854 1,521 1,891

US 1.755 1.891 7,860 10,437
Type 36, Green River

Belt

KY : 1.576 1.787 3,073 3,619
Type 37, VA Sun-cured :

Belt :

VA : 1.351 1.456 141 149
Total 35-37 : 1.695 1.858 11,074 14,205
Class 4, Cigar Filler
Type 41, PA Seedleaf

PA 1.270 1.390 13,621 18,237
Class 5, Cigar Binder
Class 5a, CT Valley

Binder
Type 51, CT Valley

Broadleaf

CT 1.800 2.500 1,928 2,423

MA 1.800 2.500 333 478

US 1.800 2.500 2,261 2,901
Class 5b, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI

WI 1.500 1.500 11,472 14,453
Type 55, Northern WI

WI 1.500 1.500 5,400 6,132
Total 54-55 1.500 1.500 16,872 20,585
Total 51-55 1.530 1.578 19,133 23,486
Class 6, Cigar Wrapper :
Type 61, CT Valley :

Shade-grown :

cT : 21.700 23.000 46,874

MA : 21.700 23.000 14,122

US : 21.700 23.000 60,996
All Cigar Types :
TOTAL 41-61 : 3.226 3.351 102,719
All Tobacco 1.742 2,829,901

2/ Estimates carried forward from Crop Production Annual Summary released
Jan 11, 1991.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 A-17 NASS, USDA



The “Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 winter wheat production forecast is
6.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current produc-
tion forecast of 1.50 billion bushels will not be above or below the final
estimate by more than 6.9 percent or approximately 103 million bushels.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will
not exceed 11.9 percent or approximately 178 million bushels. Differences
between the May 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate
during the past 10 years have averaged 59 million bushels, ranging from 11
million to 147 million bushels. The May 1 forecast has been below the final
estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply that the May 1 winter
wheat forecast this yesr is likely to understate or overstate final
production.

United States Crop Summary - Area Planted and Harvested
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

Crop : : Indicated : : Indicated
1990 : 1991 : 1990: 1991
1,000 Acres
Winter Wheat : 56,998 51,033 49,976 40,504
Spring Potatoes 2 96.2 89.1 95.1 87.8

United States Crop Summary - Yield per Acre and Production
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acre Production
Crop Ce atari
and : : : : Indicated 1991
Unit H : Indicated:
1990 : 1991 : 1990
Winter Wheat Bu: 40.7 36.9 2,033,299 1,495,943
Spring Potatoes Cwt : «254 233 24,163 21,334 20,497
Almonds (Calif) 1/ Lb : 660,000 450,000
Hay Stocks on Farms Ton : 27,089 2/104,993 27,056
Pasture and :
Range Feed 3/ Pet : 75 79
Citrus Fruits 4/ : 1989-90 1990-91 1990-91
Oranges Ton : 7,727 8,073 7,931
Grapefruit "oy 1,981 2,318 2,318

1/ 1990 revised. 2/ December 1, 1990. 3/ Pasture and Range Feed Condition
as of first of month. The 1980-89 average is 77 percent. 4/ Season begins
with bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest
the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 A-3 NASS, USDA



April Weather Summary: A series of five major storm systems and a handful of

lesser disturbances created the atmosphere for an
active spring weather pattern. Numerous April rainfall records were estab-
lished in the Gulf Coast States and in the Pacific Northwest. Storms dropped
above-normal precipitation from the northern Plains to New England, in the
eastern half of the central and southern Plains, and along the Atlantic coast.
Abundant snow fell in the northern and central Rockies. The only broad area
of significant below-normal precipitation for the month included the southern
High Plains, the Southwest, and California.

Storm centers repeatedly dug into the central Rockies and lifted out through
the Great Lakes. This weather pattern held :901 air in the West, while
pumping moist, mild air into the eastern half of the Nation. As is customary
in the spring, the Plains became a battleground for the clashing air masses,
resulting in numerous severe thunderstorm outbreaks.

April Fieldwork: Spring planting was the principal field activity during
April in most parts of the country, although rains limited
progress in the Delta and Great Plains regions.

Corn planting was underway in all of the major producing States, with progress
approaching completion by the end of the month in the southernmost areas.
Corn planting lagged behind normal in the Corn Belt due to wet conditions.

Clear weather later in the month allowed Western cotton producers to catch up
on planting that was delayed by earlier rains, but persistent rains brought
cotton planting to a virtual halt in the Delta region and parts of the
Southeast. Twenty percent of the national cotton crop was planted by April
28, 9 percentage points behind normal.

Rice planting similarly fell behind, reaching 29 percent complete by April 4 28,
compared with 47 percent average.

Planting of grain sorghum progressed at a more normal pace, reaching 19
percent complete.

Seeding of spring wheat progressed ahead of schedule in each of the five
principal producing States during April. Progress reached 64 percent complete
by April 28, 21 points ahead of normal.

Spring vegetable harvests were active in Arizona, California, Florida, and
Texas and citrus was being picked in Arizona, California, and Florida.

Winter Wheat: Production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels as of May 1,

1991. This is a 26 percent drop from 1990. Yields are
expected to average 36.9 bushels per acre from the 40.5 million acres for
grain. The yield is down 3.8 bushels per acre from last year while the area
for grain is off 19 percent.

Only Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey expect to harvest more acres for grain
than in 1990. May 1 conditions point to higher Soft Red Winter wheat yields
than a year ago. Hard Red Winter and White wheat yields are generally lower
than last year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 B-2 NASS, USDA


Reliability of May 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

just prior to May 1 to gather information on expected
harvested acres and yields as of May 1. The objective yield survey was
limited to four States (AR, KS, OK, and TX) where the crop had developed
enough to make meaningful measurements. Farm operators were interviewed to
update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate
two sample plots in selected wheat fields across the four States. The items
counted within each sample plot depends upon the crop's maturity. The counts
are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected
biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to
obtain a net yield. The plots are re-visited each month until crop maturity
when the heads within the plots are clipped, threshed, and weighed. The farm
operator survey included a sample of approximately 10,000 winter wheat
producers representing all the major producing areas. These producers were
asked questions about acres to be harvested and probable yield. Information
was collected between April 22 and May 2.

Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and farmer

reported indications were reviewed for reasonableness
and consistency with historical estimates. The indications were also reviewed
considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous years.
Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation
to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey indica—
tions and the State analysis to prepare the published May 1 forecasts.

Revision Policy: The May 1 production forecast wil] not be revised, instead a

new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the
marketing season a balance sheet using carryover stocks, production, exports,
millings, feeding, and ending stocks is calculated. Revisions are then made
if data relationships warrant changes.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1
winter wheat production forecast, the “Root Mean Square Error“,
a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by
expressing the deviation between the May 1 production forecast and the final
estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared
percentage deviations for the 1971-1990 twenty-year period; the square root of
the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability
statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast
relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting
this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.
(continued on next page)

This report was approved on May 9, 1991, by the Secretary of Agriculture and
the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agriculture Statistics Board.

Bin I fot hi ALN

Acting Secretary of Agricultural Statistics Board
Agriculture Chairperson
Bruce L. Gardner Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 A-2 NASS, USDA


INDEX
Page
Table Narrative

AIMONdS.. 2. cece cece ee cee eee e ene teen ere enee tt eeneees A-11 B-7
AVOCAGOS. 2... cece e cece eee eee e ner t een teneneeeeetaes A-11 B-7
Bananas... .. cece cece cece cece cece et en ene eeeeeneennee A-12

Cherries... . ce cece cece cece cece seer eter eet eeeeeeeeeeee A-11 B-7
CHtrUS Fruit... ccc cee cece cece eee tee e eee e et eeeeeees A- 8 B-4
1650 9 0) A-18 8-8
Cottonseed... ..... cece cece cence tee eee e eet eneeeeee A-21 B-9
Crop Moisture Maps......... cece ccc e cece e ete e tee eeeeee B- 1

Farm Marketings - Cotton and Tobacc0..........sseeeeee A-24

Hay Stocks... ... cece cece ee cence eect eeeeteeenereeeteee A- 7 B-4
PapayaS..... cece cece eect cece cece tence et eeeeeseereee A-12 B-7
Pasture and Range Feed Condition..........ssseeeeeeves A-10 B-6
Potatoes, Spring... . cece ccc cet e cece ence reeneee A-10 B-6
Reliability Statement............. cece cece ence cence eee A- 2
ea A-12

Tobacco by States....... cece cece cece cece ee ee een teens A-13 B-7
Tobacco by Class and Type..........0e eee eee eee eee A-14

US Summary... ccc cee c sce e ec eee cence eee e eee e ee eeneeene A- 3

Wheat, by ClasseS.......... ce cece eee ee eee eeee beneeenee A- 6

Wheat, Winter... .. ccc cc cece ccc cere eee e eee et eeeree A- 5 B-2
Wheat, Durum............ cece eee c crete e ence ee eeeetes A- 6 B-4
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 B-10 NASS, USDA


(FCOJ) for Florida is 1.45 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This fore-
cast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors
Association. The freeze damaged 1989-90 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was
1.23 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

Grapefruit: The May 1 U.S. grapefruit forecast, at 2.32 million tons, is

unchanged from the previous month but up 17 percent from last
season. The Florida all grapefruit forecast, at 46.6 million boxes, is also
unchanged from April but up 31 percent from last year. Harvest of Florida
grapefruit is 92 percent complete.

California "Desert Valley" grapefruit crop forecast, which was carried forward
from April 1, is 3.50 million boxes, 5 percent below the 1989-90 level. The
California "Other Areas" grapefruit crop forecast, also carried forward from
Tast month, is 4.50 million boxes, down 22 percent from last season's record
high crop.

Arizona's forecast, carried forward from last month, is 2.30 million boxes, 5
percent higher than 1989-90. Due to the severe freeze of December 1989, the
1990-91 Texas grapefruit crop was virtually eliminated. Forecasts will not be
issued this season unless sufficient commercial supplies become available.

The change in U.S. grapefruit production between the May forecast and final
production averaged 31.9 thousand tons over the past ten seasons, ranging from
a low of 4 thousand tons in 1984-85 to a high of 74 thousand tons in the 1981-
82 season.

Tangerines: The U.S. May 1 all tangerine forecast of 166 thousand tons is 1

percent higher than the 1989-90 utilized production. This
forecast includes the Dancy, Robinson, Honey, and Sunburst varieties of
tangerines in Florida, as well as production of California and Arizona
tangerines. Florida Sunburst tangerines are included in the State and U.S.
totals beginning with the 1989-90 season. Production estimates shown for
previous seasons do not include this new varietal tangerine.

The Florida forecast is 1.95 million boxes, unchanged from April 1 but up 15
percent from 1989-90. Florida harvest is virtually complete. The Arizona and
California forecasts, which were carried forward from last month, are expected
to total 650 thousand and 1.30 million boxes, respectively.

Tangelos: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-early citrus fruit, is

forecast at 2.65 million boxes, unchanged from the April forecast
but down 10 percent from last season's utilized production. Harvest is
complete.

Temples: Florida's temple forecast of 2.50 million boxes, is down 4 percent
from the April 1 forecast. However, the forecast is 79 percent
Jarger than last season's freeze damaged crop. Harvest is virtually complete.

Florida Citrus: Groves and trees in all areas continued in good to excellent
condition during April. Rainfall has been above average in

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
May 1991 B-5 NASS, USDA



Area Harvested

Tobacco by States 1/

Production

1989

1990

1989

1989 : 1990

cT
FL
GA
IN
KY
“MD

MO
NC
OH
PA
Sc
TN
VA
Ww
WI

US

Acres

1,730
6,700
40,000

: 6,100
: 178,050
: 7,300
480

: 2,500
: 266,700
: 9,100
9,500
48,000
45,500
49,590
1,450
5,500

1,820
6,900
43,000
6,400
194,150
7,100
470
2,600
284,200
9,700
10,000
51,000
53,590
53,180
1,700
6,900

732,710

1,000 Pounds

Marketing Year Average Price
Per Pound Received by Farmers

1990

Dollars

2,793 3,007

17,755 19,044
2,415 87,200 103,845
2,100 13,237 13,440
2,278 366,551 442,253
1,330 8,103 9,443
1,713 746 805
2,280 5,450 5,928
2,251 541,056 639,639
1,950 15,925 18,915
1,978 17,925 19,780
2,155 103,680 109,905
2,094 79,820 112,218
2,074 93,814 110,269
1,600 1,885 2,720
1,989 11,248 13,723
2,218 1,367,188 1,624,934

Value of
Production
1989 1990

1,000 Dollars

39,295 49,297
29,757 32,946
145,624 174,771
22,146 23,654
617,285 779,464
13,759 17,658
12,507 14,600
8,856 10,327
906, 452 1,076,242
26,643 33,196
24;709 29,825
172,420 174,309
138,200 200,039
157,413 188,242
3,114 4,746
16,872 20,585
2,335,052 2,829,901

1/ 1990 revised.

Crop Production
May 1991

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Tobacco by Class and Type 1/ (continued)

:Marketing Year Average Price : Value of
:Per Pound Received by Farmers: Production
Class and Type (9 t------ 22a n nnn nnn nnn seen nnn nnn nnn nn nnn nnn
1989 1990 1989 1990
Dollars 1,000 Dollars
Class 1, Flue-cured
Re 11, Old and
fiddle Belts
1.683 1.682 320,797 372,630
VA 1.686 1.701 120,709 144,245
US 1.684 1.687 441,506 516,875
Type 12, Eastern NC
elt
NC 1.675 1.692 444,595 $41,355
Type 13, NC Border &
Belt
NC 1.658 1.633 119,509 130,885
Sc 1.663 1.586 172,420 174,309
US 1.661 1.606 291,929 305; 194
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
L 1.676 1.730 29,757 32,946
1.670 1.683 1453624 1743771
US 1.671 1.690 175,381 207,717
Total 11-14 1.674 1.673 1,353,411 1,571,141
Class Fi re-cured
Type ai, VA Belt
1.537 1.602 3,812 4,425
fr 2 Eastern
‘istrict
1.963 1.941 11,745 14,981
i 2.033 1.990 25,372 30,274
2.010 1.974 37,117 45,255
"e 23, Western
istrict
1.942 1.899 13,342 15,306
iN 11942 1:900 27156 23328
US 1.942 1.899 15,498 17,634
Total 21-23 1.951 1.924 56,427 67,314
Class 3, Air-cured
Class 4a, Light
Air-cured
Type 31, Burley
N 1.673 1.760 22,146 23,654
KY 1.674 1.755 582,786 737,012
MO 1.625 1.742 »856 10,
NC 1.666 1.743 21,551 31,372
OH : 1.673 1.755 26,643 33,196
TN 1.670 1.747 109,151 165,546
VA 1.668 1.744 32,751 39,423
Ww 1.652 1.745 3,114 4,746
US 1.672 1.753 806,998 1,045,276
Type 32, Southern MD :
je
MD 1.698 1.870 13,759 17,658
PA 1.540 1.740 11,088 ll, 3588
US 1.624 1.816 24,847 29,246
Total 31-32 1.671 1.755 831,845 1,074,522
See footnote on page A-17. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

May 1991 A-16 NASS, USDA