ALMONDS: The forecast for the 1988 California almond crop continues at 580

million pounds (263 thousand metric tons) shelled basis, 12 percent
below last year's crop but more than double the smal? 1986 crop. The 1988
almond crop continues to progress in good condition with maturity two to three
weeks ahead of normal. Most varieties show meats that have totally
solidified. Nut set appears to be particularly heavy on younger trees and
hard shell varieties. Field work is now underway for the 1988 almond
objective measurement survey. The July forecast will utilize the results of
this probability survey.

DRIED PRUNES: California production is forecast at 160 thousand tons (145

thousand metric tons), 30 percent less than last year but 62
percent greater than the 1986 crop. Set was variable and spotty. There was
some frost damage early in the season in the Sacramento Valley. Strong winds
during bloom also adversely affected the crop.

PLUMS: California production is forecast at 260 thousand tons (236 thousand

metric tons), up 6 percent from 1987 and up 71 percent from 1986.
Growers thinned heavily to improve size but temperature fluctuations, during
the growing season, have kept the potential from being realized. Picking
continues with about 15 percent of the crop harvested.

SWEET CHERRIES: Production in the six western states is forecast at 15)
thousand tons (137 thousand metric tons), down 14 percent
from a year ago but up 32 percent from 1986.

The California crop, at 32.0 thousand tons, is down 29 percent from 1987.
The condition of the crop is variable. May rains caused some fruit to split.
Fruit size has been large. Harvest is complete in the San Joaquin Valley and
winding down in the coastal area.

Oregon's crop, estimated at 45.0 thousand tons, is down 10 percent from a
year ago. The crop has sized well and is turning color. Harvest should begin
about June 10. The possibility of rain at harvest has growers concerned.

Washington's crop, estimated at 67.0 thousand tons, is 9 percent below
last year. Frost and poor pollination limited the crop in the lower Yakima
Valley. The set waS good in the rest of the State but was not as heavy as
last year.

TART CHERRIES: Production in Colorado, Oregon, and Utah is forecast at 21.0
million pounds (9.53 thousand metric tons), down 47 percent
from the 1987 crop and 17 percent less than the 1986 crop.

Frost damage in May resulted in moderate to severe losses in the affected
orchards in Colorado. The orchards that were not hit by the frost have an
excellent crop. Fruit set was normal in Oregon except for a few areas at
higher elevations which had frost damage. Frost, cold weather, and poor
pollination combined to reduce production in Utah.

PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION: The pasture and range feed condition on
dune 1 for the 48 contiguous States was 68
percent, 16 points below June 1 last year and 14 points below the 1977-86
average for the date. This is the lowest U.S. June 1 pasture condition since
4.

Temperatures in the northern half of the Nation averaged 2 to 8 degrees
above normal and precipitation was generally below normal. Most areas would
benefit from additional rainfall.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 B-7 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

MAY 28, 1988

CROP MOISTURE:

Seats) ome Ten (99 o.oo Veen fos PN
‘ARNORWAL, DRYNESS OR VEINESS AFFECTING sGHYCoLTMe, i AN
RESPONDS RAPIDLY, CaN CHANGE CONSIDERABLY ABNORMALLY'N —7 as

YExX
MEEK, aND INDICATES NOGUAL CONDITIONS aT THE BEGINS
ING’ AND END OF THE GROWING SEASON,

OSES. APPLICABLE t4 wasonING Tar suet Tr
‘WEEE-T0-WEEK, STATUS OP DRYNESS
‘SEASON CROPS AND FIELD OPERATION:

LIMITATIONS... .AY NOT BE APPLICABLE TO GERMINATING AND SRALLO
ROOTED CROPS

E TEUPl
TURES ARE AVERAGING BELOW ABOUT SS*F, IT 13 MGT GENERALLY L9DICATIGE OF

[THE LONG TERM (MONTHS, YEARS) OROUGHT OR WET SPELLS FOICH ARE DEPICTED
[BY THE DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX.

NN tc NOAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY

Boted on pretiminary reports

DROUGHT SEVERITY

. (LONG TERM, PALMER)
MAY 28, 1988 SEVERE)
5 A EXTREME ISSUED TWICE A MONTH
MODERATE — _—
if SEVERE = ig MODERATE
\
9 we
SONG EXTREME
& EXTREME - SEVERE
GUTH
EXTREME: TNseye S|
EXTREME.
~~
. ’ 4
ONS N
MODERATE

DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PALMER) :DEPIGHS PRON
LONGED (MONTHS, YEARS) ABNORUAL DRYNESS OR WETNESS;
RESPONDS SLOWLY; CHANGES LITTLE FROM WEEK TO KEEK;
AND REFLECTS LONG TERM MOISTURE RUNOFF. RECHARGE,

JAND DEEP PERCOLATION, AS WELL AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.

TERM STATUS OF PATER SUPPLIES 1X AQUIFERS, RESERVOIAS ANB STREAUS..

LIMITATIONS. 15 NOT GENERALLY INDICATIVE OF SHORT TERM (FEE WEEAST
sta ETNESS SUCK AS FREQUENTLY AFFECTS CROPS ANO
[Ftp opemations (THiS. J8 INDICATED BY THE CHOP NOJSTURE. INDEX)”

ROAA/USDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY

osed on preliminary reports

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 B-1 NASS, USDA



WINTER WHEAT

1,000 ACRES BUSHELS 7,000 BUSHEL S

ALA : 170 180 «31.0 36.0 5,720 5,270 6,480
ARIZ If 44 35° «95.0 © 97.0 45512 4,180 33395
ARK > 840 950 41.0 44.0 33,415 345440 41,800
CALIF : 480 440 76.9 81.0 45,000 36,480 35,640
colo > 2,500 2,350 37.5 37.0 92,800 93,750 86,950
DEL if: 48 50 42.0 = 45.0 1,530 2,016 25250
FLA 1f 60 45 30.0 = 29.0 3,100 1,800 1,305
GA : 460 460 31.0 43.0 15,400 14,260 19,780
IDAHO > 800 790 75.0 72.0 51,850 60,000 56,880
ILL : 950 1,120 59.0 55.0 36,080 56,050 61,600
IND : 600 700 «58.0 © 49.0 30,100 343800 34,300
IOWA 1/ 30 60 38.0 38.0 1,680 1,140 2,280
KANS : 9,900 9,400 37.0 35.0 336,600 366,300 329,000
KY : "330 390 49.0 41.0 8,910 16,170 15,990
tA of 170 250 31.0 41.0 7,350 5,270 10,250
MD o1/  : 165 175 49.0 51.0 6,815 83085 8,925
MICH : 400 620 48.0 47.0 30,600 19,200 293140
MINN If: 90 64 33.0 32.0 43290 23970 2,048
MISS > 350 480 36.0 36.0 6,200 12,600 17,280
MO : 770 1,400 46.0 = 47.0 18,810 35,420 65,800
MONT : 2,200 2,200 36.0 24.0 64,000 793200 52,800
NEBR : 1,950 2,050 44.0 42.0 76,000 85,800 86,100
NEV of 7 7 90.0 90.0 810 630 630
NJ Wo: 27 26 «45.0 45.0 1,290 1,215 1,170
N MEX If : 340 320. 32.0 30.0 10,120 10,880 9,600
NY Wo: 80 90 47.0 47.0 7,595 33760 45230
NC : 440 450 44.0 © 42.0 15,180 18,040 18,900
N DAK 1/  : 185 190 32.0 © 28.0 13,920 5,920 5,320
OHIO : 800 1,040 58.0 48.0 48,300 46,400 49,920
OKLA : 4,800 4,900 27.0 36.0 150,800 1293600 176,400
OREG : 750 650 66.0 66.0 53,940 49,500 42,900
PA Woo: 185 180 43.0 44.0 9,680 7,955 7,920
SC : 278 300 38.0 39.0 7,500 10,450 11,700
S DAK > 1,620 1,550 34.0 30.0 57,600 55,080 46,500
TENN : 350 380 47.0 39.0 103725 143350 14,820
TEX : 3,600 3,200 28.0 29.0 120,000 100,800 92,800
UTAH 1/ 3 170 150 43.0 43.0 8,100 7,310 6,450
VA > 215 190 45.0 46.0 6,970 93675 83740
WASH : 1,825 1,650 57.0 54.0 102,900 104,025 89,100

1/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD “FROM EARLIER FORECAST.
WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASSES, UNITED STATES 1/
SPRING

1,000 BUSHELS

1986 =: 1,017,831 292,450 211,217 451,417 97,907 20,813 2,091,635
1987 : 1,018,561 347,742 196,593 430,578 92,617 19,109 2,105,200
1988 2/: (969,946 414,663 185,808

lf WHEAT CLASS ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON VARIETY ACREAGE SURVEY DATA COLLECTED AT
5-YEAR INTERVALS FOR ALL WHEAT PRODUCING STATES. THE 5-YEAR VARIETAL SURVEY
DATA ARE ADJUSTED AS OTHER VARIETY SURVEY INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

2/ INDICATED JUNE 1, 1988.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-5 NASS, USDA


Conditions along the Atlantic Coast from North Carolina to New England
were good to excellent. Also, an area including Arizona, Utah, Colorado,
Wyoming, and Nebraska was in good to excellent condition. All other areas
reported poor to fair or lower conditions.

Seven states in the northeast and Pacific Northwest were up from last year
and 40 states were down. New Hampshire was unchanged.

POTATOES: Spring potato production is forecast at 19.8 million cwt (900

thousand metric tons), up 12 percent from 1987 and virtually un-
changed from two years ago. Area for harvest is set at 79.0 thousand acres
(32.0 thousand hectares), down 2 percent from last year but 4 percent above
two years ago. The average yield of 251 cwt per acre improved slightly from a
month ago on the strength of better yield prospects in North Carolina.

Florida harvest continues in the Hastings area, with slow movement. Other
areas report harvest moving to Northern areas about the first of June. North
Carolina prospects look good, with harvest starting in early June. Alabama
harvest is about halfway along, but digging is slow in dry fields. Delayed
planting and dry weather have reduced Louisiana yields.

Harvest of the Texas Rio Grande Valley crop is winding down. Wet soils
have slowed harvest in the San Antonio-Winter Garden area, but yields are
good. In the Knox-Haskell area, harvest is underway, but hot, dry winds
during the season reduced yield prospects. Arizona growers report a normal
harvest which started in early to mid-May, and is becoming general.
California harvest is active on reds, whites, and russets. Yields are about
average on reds and russets, but low in some fields of whites.

SWEETPOTATOES: Final production of 1987 sweetpotatoes is set at 12.1 million

cwt (547 thousand metric tons), down 5 percent from 1986 and
19 percent below 1985. Harvested area was 93.3 thousand acres (37.8 thousand
hectares), virtually unchanged from the previous year but 11 percent below
1985. The average yield, at 129 cwt per acre, was down 7 cwt from 1986 and 12
cwt below 1985.

SUGAR CROPS-1987 REVISED: Production of sugarbeets in 1987 totaled 27.9

million tons (25.3 million metric tons) up 11
percent from the 24.2 million tons (22.8 million metric tons) produced in
1986. The increase is the combined result of more acreage and higher yields.
Growers harvested 1.25 million acres (506 thousand hectares) in 1987, up 5
percent from 1986. The average yield of 22.3 tons per acre in 1987 is 1.2
tons per acre above the previous year.

Sugarcane produced for sugar in 1987 totaled 28.0 million tons (25.4
million metric tons), 3 percent less than in 1986. The smaller quantity is
largely the result of lower yields in Florida and Louisiana. Area harvested
for sugar totaled 778 thousand acres {315 thousand hectares), up 4 percent
from 1986. Yield per acre averaged 36.0 tons in 1987 compared with 38.5 tons
a@ year ago.

Total 1987 sugar production of 7.29 million tons (6.61 million metric
tons) raw value from sugarcane and sugarbeets is up 9 percent from the 1986
output of 6.70 million tons (6.08 million metric tons). The 3.33 million tons
(3.02 million metric tons) raw value of sugar produced from cane is up 2
percent from a year earlier. Sugarbeets sliced from the 1987 crop totaled
27.4 million tons (24.8 million metric tons), an increase of 11 percent from
1986. Sugar (raw value) produced from the 1987 slice totaled 3.95 million
tons (3.59 million metric tons), an increase of 16 percent from the 1986
production.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 B-8 NASS, USDA


ORANGES: All oranges are forecast at 201 million boxes (7.80 million metric

tons) for 1987-88, 1 percent above the May 1 forecast and 10 percent
more than the 1986-87 season. The Florida crop is nearly 141 million boxes,
unchanged from May 1 but 17 percent higher than last season. Production of
early and mid-season oranges this season in Florida is 78.5 million boxes.
Harvest is virtually complete. The Florida Valencia forecast, at 62.0 million
boxes, is unchanged from May 1 but 15 percent more than 1986-87. Harvest is
about three quarters complete.

The California Navel forecast is 31.8 million boxes, 3 percent above May 1
but 8 percent below the 1986-87 crop. As of June 1, 98 percent of California's
Navel crop was harvested. California's Valencia forecast is 25.0 million
boxes, 4 percent above both the May 1 forecast and JTast seasons utilized
production.

The Texas all orange forecast is 1.43 million boxes, unchanged from last
month and compares with 875 thousand boxes harvested last season. Texas
harvest is virtually complete.

The atl orange forecast for Arizona, which was carried forward from the
April 1 forecast, is expected to total 2.30 million boxes, 27 percent less
than last season's production.

Changes in U.S. orange production between the June 1 forecast and final
production averaged 2.61 million boxes over the past ten seasons, ranging from
a low of 300 thousand boxes in the 1977-78 season to a high of 5.88 million
boxes in the 1980-81 season.

FLORIDA FROZEN CONCENTRATED JUICE YIELD: The 1987-88 Florida all orange frozen

concentrate juice yield forecast is
1.55 gallons per box of 42.0 degree Brix equivalent, unchanged from last
month's projection. This represents a record FCOJ yield for all Florida
oranges. The previous record was 1-51 gallons per box set during the 1986-87
season.

GRAPEFRUIT: The June 1 U.S. grapefruit forecast is 68.7 million boxes (2.54

million metric tons), up 2 percent from May 1 and 9 percent above
Tast season. The Florida all grapefruit forecast, at 54.1 million boxes, is
up 2 percent from Tast month and 9 percent above last year. The Texas
grapefruit forecast, at 3.80 million boxes, is unchanged from May 1, but
almost twice last season's production. Harvest is virtually complete in
Florida and Texas.

The California and Arizona forecasts have been carried foreward from April
1. The California “Desert Valley" grapefruit forecast, is 4.20 million boxes,
the same as the 1986-87 level. California's “Other Area" grapefruit forecast,
is 4.70 million boxes, down 4 percent from last season. Arizona's forecast is
1.90 million boxes, down 14 percent from last season.

The June 1 forecast of U.S. grapefruit production has on the average been
within 776 thousand boxes of final production over the past ten seasons, The
change ranged from a low of 200 thousand boxes in both the 1984-85 and 1982-83
seasons, to a high of 2.15 million boxes in the 1981-82 season.

TANGERINES: The U.S. all tangerine forecast of 4.40 million boxes (171

thousand metric tons), is 1 percent above the May 1 forecast but
17 percent below tast season. This forecast includes all varieties of
tangerines in Florida (Dancy, Robinson, and Honey), as well as production of
California and Arizona tangerines. Florida Honey tangerines, beginning this
year, are included in the State and U.S. totals. Production estimates shown
for previous seasons have been adjusted for comparison purposes with the new
crop forecasts.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 B-5 NASS, USDA


SUGARBEETS 1/

CALIF : 192.0 218.0 —«*'188.0

coLo 3 37.8 37.4 37.2

IDAHO : 161.0 163.0 160.0

MICH 137.0 144.0 110.0

MINN 315.0 311.0 311.0

MONT 47.2 49.2 46.8

NEBR H 59.9 61.6 59.0

N MEX : 3/ 6 3/

N DAK : 164.8 163.3 163.8

OHIO 15.6 16.8 15.0

OREG 13.0 13.9 12.9

TEX 37.2 32.8 37.0

WYO 51.0 54.1 50.5

US 1,231.5 1,265.7 1,191.2

PRODUCTION
1986 1987 2/
1,000 TONS DOLLARS 1,000 DOLLARS

CALIF > 4,832 5,956 35.70 172,502
COLO : 889 803 32.90 29,248
IDAHO > 4,112 4,277 36.40 149,677
MICH : 2,288 2,911 30.00 68,640
MINN : 5,194 6,200 39.20 203,605
MONT : 1,016 1,086 39.10 39,726
NEBR : 1,387 1,102 32.50 45,078
N MEX : 3/ 2 3/ 3/
N DAK : 2,932 3,161 39.30 115,228
OHIO : 309 269 29.80 9,208
OREG 3 374 422 34.20 42,791
TEX : 829 621 24.00 19,896
WYO : 1,000 1,127 36.60 36,600
US : 25,162 27,937 35.90 902,199

1/ RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED
BEETS IN CALIFORNIA. 2/ REVISED. 3/ NO ACREAGE. 4/ ESTIMATES ARE NOT
AVAILABLE. U.S. MARKETING YEAR AVERAGE PRICE, VALUE OF PRODUCTION, AND PARITY
PRICE WILL BE PUBLISHED IN "AGRICULTURAL PRICES," RELEASED JULY 29, 1988.
STATE ESTIMATES WILL BE PUBLISHED IN "CROP VALUES" TO BE RELEASED JAN 1989.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-10 NASS, USDA


PEACHES

fecceenencewenmenconemennnnennnene : INDICATED
1987 : 1988

ALA :
ARK :
CALIF-FREESTONE
COLO
CONN
DEL
GA
IDAHO
TLL
IND
KANS
KY
LA
MD
MASS
MICH
MISS
MO
NJ
NY
NC
OHIO
OKLA
OREG
PA
$c
TENN
TEX
UTAH
VA
WASH
W VA

TOTAL ABOVE : 1,395.4

—_ >
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© BDDONONGODOOOWOOUNDTORONHOWOoON

SBODCHROSWUNKDETN SHO) NKHEHHANNAHOA
SOSONDDDDOUUNGBDOCWOWOONDDDDODONANOUO
AONSHVDMOHONHDAOEHAESREOMHUNABROAHOWN

NONOANOAGAMUOGHARSwW Ons

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CLINGSTONE 2/ :
CALIF : 933.0 957.0 1,000.0

ALL :
US : 2,328.4 2,428.8 2,631.5

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (MILLION POUNDS):
UNITED STATES, EXCLUDING CALIF CLINGSTONE PEACHES, 1986-29.0; 1987-72.6. 2/
CALIF CLINGSTONE IS OVER THE SCALE TONNAGE AND INCLUDES CULLS ANDO CANNERY
DIVERSIONS (MILLION POUNDS): 1986-59.5; 1987-55.0.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-7 NASS, USDA


PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION 1/

STATE AVERAGE VERAGE 1987
1977-86 1977-86

ALA : 76 86 79 61
ARIZ 2 78 91 92 92
ARK H 89 87 95 99
CALIF : 86 75 95 74
COLO i 81 88 84 89
CONN : 89 82 89 85
DEL : 83 72 86 38
FLA : 65 86 89 77
GA : 71 87 79 73
IDAHO : 88 88 75 77
ILL : 88 87 93 91
IND + 89 91 96 90
IOWA : 87 70 73 67
KANS : 88 74 88 61
KY : 88 88 79 76
LA 3 78 72 86 56
MAINE : 92 85 85 84
MD H 84 90 84 94
MASS : 92 86 95 94
MICH 3 85 83 74 78
MINN 3 82 83 90 89
MISS : 82 86 85 58
mo z 87 86 95 80
MONT z 76

NEBR H 87 82 84 68

1/ GOOD TO EXCELLENT, 80 AND OVER; POOR TO FAIR 65-79; VERY POOR, 50-64; SEVERE
DROUGHT, 35-49; EXTREME DROUGHT, UNDER 35.

CHERRIES
PRODUCTION
CROP AND
STATE
Poet rr cece nnn ren tenn eee nn nrc eens INDICATED
1986 1987 1988 2/
TONS
SWEET :
CALIF z 8,400 45,000 32,000
IDAHO : 2,300 2,100 2,300
MONT : 1,600 3,800 3,000
OREG H 38,000 $0,000 45,000
UTAH 3 2,160 7,800 1,900
WASH : 62,500 74,000 67,000
TOTAL 2 114,960 176,700 151,200
z MILLION POUNDS
TART H
COLO : 9 2.5 1.0
OREG : 6.0 8.0 5.0
UTAH z 18.5 29.0 15.0
TOTAL : 25.4 39.5 21.0

V/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD: TOTAL SWEET
(TONS), 1986-600; 1987-1630; TOTAL TART(POUNDS) 1987-11.5. 2/ RELEASE DATE
OF THE FIRST FORECAST FOR THE GREAT LAKES STATES (NY, PA, AND MICH) FOR SWEET
AND TART VARIETIES, PLUS WIS FOR TART VARIETIES, IS JUNE 22.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-6 NASS, USDA


TANGELOS: The Florida tangelo crop, excluding K-early citrus fruit, remains

at 4.20 million boxes, (171 thousand metric tons), unchanged from
May 1 but up 5 percent from last season's utilized production. Harvest is
complete.

TEMPLES: Florida's Temple forecast remains at 3.55 million boxes (145
thousand metric tons), unchanged from May 1 but 4 percent above last
season's utilized production.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Groves and trees are in very good condition. Rainfall during
May was below normal however; surface soil moisture levels
were maintained in good condition through extensive irrigation in all areas of
Florida's citrus belt. New crop fruit is generally set for next season.
Harvest of Valencia oranges was very active during May. There was almost a 6
million box per week average during the month. Movement of white and colored
grapefruit slowed considerably by the end of May as supplies were running very
low. Virtually all of the remaining grapefruit are in the lower east coast
growing areas. Caretakers completed post bloom nutritional spraying and are
now busy applying summer fertilizers and sprays. Mowing, disking, and
chopping of cover crops are being done to help preserve surface soil moisture.

TEXAS CITRUS: Citrus harvest was virtually complete by the end of May for the

1987-88 season. Producers were very happy with volumes and
quality of fruit. Currently, the groves look very good. Sets are heavy.
Irrigation needs declined with recent rain. Normal grove care operations
continued.

CALIFORNIA FRUIT AND NUTS: Wind and rain throughout May caused variable de-
grees of damage to the deciduous fruit crops in
the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. Apple growers were thinning the fruit
set. Apricots were being harvested in the San Joaquin Valley. Cherry harvest
was complete in the valley area and winding down in the coastal region. Some
early variety table grapes were picked in the desert area. Harvest was active
for nectarines, freestone peaches, and plums. Olive trees were setting
fruit. Lemon harvest continued to be active in the southern coastal area.
Picking of Desert Valley grapefruit continued in Riverside county. The Navel
orange harvest was winding down, while the Valencia orange harvest was gaining
momentum. A heavy pistachio set was also reported in the San Joaquin Valley.
Recent rains have caused walnut growers to be concerned about blight problems.

APRICOTS; The first forecast for the 1988 U.S. apricot crop is 111 thousand

tons (101 thousand metric tons), 4 percent below last year's
Production, but more than double the small 1986 crop.

California's production is forecast at 105 thousand tons, 5 percent below
Tast season, but more than twice the crop produced in 1986. The crop appears
to be in good condition. Size and quality seem to be normal. Harvest is
Slightly ahead of normal.

The Utah crop forecast is 1300 tons, 18 percent above last year and 44
percent more than the 1986 crop. Crop conditions appear to be good except in
southern counties where freeze damage occurred. Tree numbers remain steady.

Washington apricot production is forecast at 4.60 thousand tons, 18
percent above last year and 7 percent more than the 1986 crop. Apricot
production is making a comeback in Washington. Estimated bearing tree acreage
has increased significantly since 1982.

NECTARINES: The first forecast for the California nectarine crop is 195

thousand tons (177 thousand metric tons), 2 percent higher than
last year and 33 percent above 1986, The 1988 nectarine crop appears to have
excellent quality. Growers have thinned heavily to improve size. Harvest is
underway with approximately 10 percent of the crop picked.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 B-6 NASS, USDA


MISCELLANEOUS FRUITS AND NUTS

TONS

PLUMS

CALIF 152,000 245,000 260,000
PRUNES (ORIED BASIS) :

CALIF : 99,000 2/228,000 160,000
APRICOTS :

CALIF : 50,000 110,000 105,000

UTAH 3 900 1,100 1,300

WASH 2 4,300 3,900 4,600

US : 55,200 115,000 110,900
NECTARINES :

CALIF : 172,000 191,000 195,000

1,000 POUNDS
ALMONDS (SHELLED BASIS)
CALIF 250,000 660,000 580,000

1/__APRICOTS ~ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS):
UNITED STATES, 1986-100; 1987-10,200. 2/ REVISED.

BARTLETT PEARS

PRODUCTION

STATE TOTAL 1/
IND
1987 2/ 1988
a TONS —
CALIF : 285,000 325,000 295,000
OREG : 55,000 78,000 70,000
WASH 3 126,000 171,000 150,000
Us : 466,000 574,000 515,000

1/ INCLUDES UNHARVESTED PRODUCTION AND HARVESTED NOT SOLD (TONS): U.S.-5,000.
2/ REVISED.

PAPAYAS - HAWAII

AREA FRESH PRODUCTION
MONTH =: TOTAL INCROP oo: HARVESTED. =o:
wo pen nee nee n nnn enon nee n nnn enn nen n nen: 1987 1988
1987 1988 1987 1988
1,000 POUNDS
APR t 3,995 4,165 2,330 2,255 4,125 4,255
MAY : 3,950 4,330 2,310 2,340 4,175 4,450
JUN : 3,910 2,300 4,525 5,000
JUL : 3,965 2,330 4,785 6,000
AUG : 3,940 2,350 4,660 6,500
SEP : 4,000 2,345 4,770 7,000
CUMULATIVE FRESH PRODUCTION JAN-MAY 19,430 18,795
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

JUNE 1988 A-9 NASS, USDA


Natlonal United States
Sareatural Department of
Service Agriculture

FactFi

for Agree Agricultural
Statistics
Board

Crop
Production

Washington, D.C.

RELEASED: June 9, 1988
3:00 P.M. ET

HIGHLIGHTS

WINTER WHEAT production is forecast at 1.57 billion bushels (42.7 million
metric tons), up slightly from 1987. Yields are now expected to average
39.4 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels from last year.

ORANGE production is forecast at 201 million boxes, (7.80 million metric tons),
10 percent above last season.

PEACH production, including California Clingstone crop, is forecast at 2.63
billion pounds (1.19 million metric tons), 8 percent more than last year
and 13 percent more than 1986. The California Clingstone crop, at 1.00
billion pounds, is 4 percent more than a year ago.

BARTLETT PEAR production in the Pacific Coast States, is forecast at 515 thou-
sand tons (467 thousand metric tons), down 10 percent from last year but
11 percent more than 1986.

SWEET CHERRY production in the Western States is forecast at 151 thousand tons

(137 thousand metric tons), down 14 percent from a year ago but 32 per-
cent greater than 1986.

SPRING POTATO production is forecast at 19.8 million cwt (900 thousand metric
tons) up 12 percent from last year, and about the same two years ago.

PASTURE AND RANGE condition on June 1 was 68 percent of normal, 16 points below
dune 1 last year and 14 points, below the 1977-86 average. This is the
lowest United States June 1 pasture condition since 1934.

RIKI REIKI IIIS III ISI HRIAI IIIA ISIS IAI IIIA IIE II IIIS II III IIIA KIARA

o Revised 1987 production of Bartlett pears (Pacific Coast States) and * *

prunes (California).
Fe ees (ea Orc ddinniotanninnornnniinnieniibiniianinneiaiet

* NOTICE *
* *
* o Revised 1987 acreage, yield, and production sugarbeets and sugarcane.*
* *
* o Revised 1987 production of beet sugar, cane sugar and cane molasses. *
* *
* o Revised 1987 acreage, yield and production of sweetpotatoes. ;
*

*

*

CrPr 2-2 (6-88) For Information Call: (202) 447-2127


SUGARBEETS SLICED 1/

T/_ RELATES TO YEAR OF INTENDED HARVEST EXCEPT FOR OVERWINTERED SPRING PLANTED
BEETS IN CALIFORINIA.

SUGAR PRODUCTION

paecceee eee ee wenn e enn eee nee nee nee eee : SUGAR PRODUCTION
: YIELD PER TON : REFINED BASIS
OF CANE OR BEETS :

CANE SUGAR
FLA 229 234 1,379 1,418
RAW 249 244 975 915
LA 198 245 627 683
TEX 209 202 85 99
us 227 238 3,066 3,175
BEET SUGAR $
us : 3,416 3,953 272 283 3,193 3,694
CANE AND BEET SUGAR : 6,697 7,286 6,259 6,803

THOUSANDS
SUGARCANE PRODUCTS
BLACKSTRAP MOLASSES-800 BRIX 2/ : :
FLA : GALLON : 92,879 90,145

HAW : GALLON : 3/ 50,385 3/ 493000
LA : GALLON : 35,850 357820
TEX : GALLON : 67856 8,901
US : GALLON + 185,970 183,866
EDIBLE MOLASSES : :
LA 3 GALLON : 1,700 1.630
us : GALLON + 1,700 1,630
SUGARBEET PRODUCTS - U S : :
MOLASSES : GALLON : 192,565 200,182
PULP : :
MOLASSES TON 1,174 1,425
DRIED TON 302

TON 327

T/ SUGARCANE PRODUCTS REVISED. 2/ INCLUDES HIGH-TEST MOLASSES FROM FROZEN
CANE. 3/ 85° BRIX.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-12 NASS, USDA


SUGARCANE

PRODUCTION
1986 1987
WOOO ACRES 1,000 TONS
FOR SUGAR
ALA :
FLA : 390.0 402.0 33.1 32.3 12,916 12,990
HAW : 83.6 79.5 100.2 100.8 8,379 8,014
LA 248.0 263.0 27.3 22.7 6,770 5,970
TEX : 29.1 33.8 29.9 31.1 871 13052
US : 750.7 778.3 38.5 36.0 28,936 28,026
FOR SEED:
FLA : 15.0 15.0 35.3 31.9 530 479
HAW : 6.6 7.0 31.5 25.8 208 181
LA : 22.0 22.0 27.3 22.7 601 499
TEX : 1.9 1:3 18.9 25.4 36 33
US : 45.5 45.3 30.2 26.3 1,375 1,192
FOR SUGAR
AND SEED :
FLA : 405.0 417.0 33.2 32.3 13,446 13,469
HAW : 90.2 86.5 95.2 94.7 8,587 8,195
LA : 270.0 285.0 27.3 22.7 73371 6,469
TEX : 31.0 35.1 29.3 30.9 907 13085
us 796.2 823.6 38.1 35.5 30,311 29,218
FOR SUGARS FOR SUGAR AND SEED
PRICE PER TON VALUE OF PRODUCTION :VALUE OF PRODUCTION 3/
1986: 19874/: 1986: 19874/ : 1986: 1987 4/
DOLLARS 1,000 DOLLARS
FLA : 29.00 374,564 389,934
HAW : 27.90 233,774 239,577
LA : 23.10 156,387 170,270
TEX : 27.50 23,953 24,943
TOTAL : 27.30 788,678 824,724

1/ YIELD AND PRODUCTION REFER TO NET WEIGHT. 2/ REVISED. 3/ PRICE PER TON
OF CANE FOR SUGARCANE USED IN EVALUATING VALUE OF PRODUCTION FOR SEED. 4/ ~
ESTIMATES ARE NOT AVAILABLE. U.S. MARKETING YEAR AVERAGE PRICE, VALUE OF
PRODUCTION, AND PARITY PRICE WILL BE PUBLISHED IN “AGRICULTURAL PRICES,"
RELEASED JULY 29, 1988. STATE ESTIMATES WILL BE PUBLISHED IN “CROP VALUES" TO
BE RELEASED JAN 1989.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-11 NASS, USDA


CITRUS FRUIT 1/

PRODUCTION : PRODUCTION
BOXES 3 TON EQUIVALENT
CROP
AND UTILIZED UTILIZED
STATE INDICATED: -: INDICATED

1985-86 1987-88 1987-88

2/
ORANGES ,EARLY MID :
& NAVEL 3/:
ARIZ 4}: 600 950 600 23 36 23
CALIF 3 33,000 34,500 31,800 1,238 1,294 1,193
FLA 3 64,200 65,800 78,500 2,889 2,961 3,533
TEX af: 200 500 940 3 22 40
us 3 98,000 101,750 111,840 4,159 4,313 4,789
ORANGES, VALENCIA =
ARIZ 4/: 1,700 2,200 1,700 64 83 64
CALIF : 20,900 24,000 25,000 784 900 938
FLA : 55,000 53,900 62,000 2,475 2,425 2,790
TEX 2 110 375 490 5 16 2)
US : 77,710 80,475 89,190 3,328 3,424 3,813
ALL ORANGES :
ARIZ 4/: 2,300 3,150 2,300 87 119 87
CALIF z 53,900 58,500 56,800 2,022 2,194 2,131
FLA : 119,200 119,700 140,500 5,364 5,386 6,323
TEX : 310 875 1,430 14 38 61
US > 175,710 182,225 201,030 7,487 7,737 8,602
TEMPLES :
FLA : 2,950 3,400 3,550 133 153 160
GRAPEFRUIT WHITE 1
SEEDLESS .
FLA 2 25,600 26,900 29,300 1,088 1,143 1,245
GRAPEFRUIT, COLORED:
SEEDLESS :
FLA 18,000 20,000 22,000 765 850 935
OTHER GRAPEFRUIT
FLA 3,150 2,900 2,750 134 123 117
ALL GRAPEFRUIT
ARIZ 2,400 2,200 1,900 77 70 61
CALIF :
DESERT 3 3,600 4,200 4,200 115 134 134
OTHER AREAS : 4,500 4,900 4,700 151 164 157
TOTAL 4]: 8,100 9,100 8,900 266 298 291
FLA : 46,750 49,800 54,050 1,987 2,116 2,297
TEX 3 220 1,925 3,800 9 77 152
US + 57,470 63,025 68,650 2,339 2,561 2,801
TANGERINES r
ARIZ 4a/: 700 700 450 26 26 7
CALIF 4/: 1,800 2,230 1,500 68 83 56
FLA S/: 1,950 2,340 2,450 93 111 116
US : 4,450 5,270 4,400 187 220 189
LEMONS Al:
ARIZ : 3,250 7,100 4,000 123 270 152
CALIF : 15,100 21,500 18,500 574 817 703
US : 18,350 28,600 22,500 697 1,087 855
TANGELOS :
FLA : 2,950 4,000 4,200 133 180 189

1/ THE CROP YEAR BEGINS WITH THE BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH
YEAR HARVEST IS COMPLETED. 2/ NET LBS PER BOX: ORANGES~CALIF & ARIZ-75,
FLA-90, TEX-85; GRAPEFRUIT-CALIF DESERT & ARIZ-64, CALIF OTHER-67, FLA-85,
TEX~-80; LEMONS-76; TANGELOS & TEMPLES-90; TANGERINES-CALIF & ARIZ-75, FLA-95.
3/ NAVEL AND MISCELLANEOUS VARIETIES IN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. EARLY AND
MIDSEASON VARIETIES IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS, INCLUDING SMALL QUANTITIES OF TANGER-
INES IN TEXAS. 4/ ESTIMATES FOR CURRENT YEAR CARRIED FORWARD FROM EARLIER
FORECAST. 5/ PER PROGRAM MODIFICATION, FLA “ALL TANGERINES" INCLUDE HONEY
TANGERINES BEGINNING WITH THE 1987-88 SEASON. ESTIMATES FOR PREVIOUS SEASONS
ARE REVISED TO INCLUDE THE HONEY VARIETY.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-8 NASS, USDA


ALM
APR
BEE
CHE
cIT.
CRO
MOL.
NEC
PAP

PEA
PEA
PLUI
POT.
PRU

REL

INDEX

ONDS cece ccc c cece eee n reece nee e ners enee eee ee anne nese eeeeeseeees
ICOTS
T PULP

RRIES
RUS FRUIT cosccccccnceccssescnencc ete e senses ssnencceeseeseseere
P MOISTURE MAPS .eseeeccccecccscerer eres eeereseseeeeeeneeeteeees
ASSES cose c cece cece eee eccn cence Seen eee e eee eee e eee eeeneee
TARINES ...eeeee bee eee ee eee see tee e eee e nee tee eeee seen e eee e eee

AYAS ...

CHES ..... steer ee eeeee te veceecenn see e cece eee eens tee eeenenes sees
RS, BARTLETT co cceeeeee eee ee ee eeeee Deere eee e seen eee eenesesneees
MS ..

ATOES, SPRING ...ccseseeeeeeeeeceee
NES, DRIED ..... beeen cece eens vee e eens bee eee ence eens bene eeeeeee
TABILITY STATEMENT ....eeeeeeeeee beer eee e eee te ee ence eee tebe eeeee

SUGARCANE .eceeeee cece rec eee eneeeee Penner cece cece ener t eee eeneee
SWEETPOTATOES wos csseccc csc eec enn sn steer eect een sse cesses eteeeecees
US SUMMARY ....... nnn Soars tte eeeee ete eee eeeeee

WHEAT, BY CLASSES ..ecesccceeecc cesar teteeeenee baa eecceee Sea eeeeeee
WHEAT, WINTER ....se-eeeeee tte ee eens bee eee eens tence eens sete eee

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FEI IIIT IAI III TOTO TOTTI RA TOTTI IA IT TTR I IT TTS IAI II OA II IAI IA

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CRO

NOTICE

Requests for a subscription order form covering all available reports

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should be directed to Agricultural Statistics Board Publications, Room *

§829-South Building, USDA, Washington, 0.C. 20250. (202) 447-4021.

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This report and other statistical, economic, marketing and news reports*

are available electronically as soon as possible following release
through USDA's EDI SERVICE. For more information, call or write:
Russell Forte, (202) 447-5505, OGPA, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250.

The next issue of this report will be published July 12, 1988

FEI III IOI IIIT III IIIT ITO II IOI ICT ORI TOTO IIIT AAI I IOS IIA

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P PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

JUNE 1988 B-9 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY-AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(METRIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

CROP : : INDICATED : : INDICATED
1987 : 1988 : 1987 : 1988
° HECTARES
WINTER WHEAT : 19,741,180 19,663,890 15,911,200 16,117,180
SPRING POTATOES : 33,390 32,420 32,660 31,970

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY-YIELD PER HECTARE AND PRODUCTION
(METRIC UNITS)

YIELD PER HECTARE PRODUCTION

METRIC TONS
WINTER WHEAT : 2.67 2.65 42,535,060 44,096,170 42,739,750

SPRING POTATOES : 24.62 28.14 803,940 895,930 899,510
PEACHES : 1,101,680 1,193,170
APRICOTS : 104,330 100,610
NECTARINES (CALIF): 173,270 176,900
PLUMS (CALIF) : 222,260 235,870
DRIED PRUNES (CALIF): 206,840 145,150
ALMONDS (CALIF) : 299,370 263,080 263,080
CITRUS FRUITS 1/ 1986-87 1987-88 1987-88

ORANGES : 7,018,890 7,741,910 7,803,600

GRAPEFRUIT : 2,323,300 2,492,940 2,541,020

1/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS WITH THE COM-
PLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-4 NASS, USDA


MAY WEATHER SUMMARY

Dry and unseasonably warm weather prevailed over much of the northern
Plains and Corn Belt. The dryness extended through the Mississippi Valley and
much of the Southeast. The northern and central Pacific Coast, western Plains,
and middle Atlantic Coast States received above-normal precipitation.
(Prepared by the NOAA/USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility.)

MAY FIELDWORK

Dryness Characterized most of the month of May. Precipitation at key
periods during the month kept the dry conditions from becoming severe in most
areas. Planting ceased momentary in some areas of the Corn Belt, Delta,
Southeast, and central Great Plains until soil moisture improved. The dryness
caused some reseeding in most areas of the Nation.

Corn began the month 36 percent seeded, 7 points behind ]987 but 12 points
above normal. By midmonth planting equaled the fast pace set in 1987 at 88%
completion. At this point seeding was 22 points ahead of normal. At the end
of the third week of May, planting was finished or neared completion except in
Pennsylvania and South Gakota. Corn reached the silking stage in some
Southeast and Delta States and the dough stage in Texas by the end of May.

Cotton planting progressed normally to slightly ahead of normal during
May. The month ended with 78 percent of the cotton acreage planted, 2 points
above normal, Cotton planting was mostly finished except in Oklahoma and
Texas. Poor germination caused above-normal replanting in the western States
and Delta. By month's end cotton was squaring and seting bolls in Arizona and
Texas.

Soybeans were 74 percent seeded on May 29 surpassing the sizzling seeding
pace accomplished in 1987. Planting was 21 points above the 5-year average.
Seeding approached completion in the Corn Belt and was more than 50 finished
in the central Great Plains. Dryness plagued seeding in the Southeast and
Delta during most of the month.

Sorghum was 58 percent seeded by the end of May. This compares with 54
percent seeded in 1987 and 47 percent normally. Oryness hampered seeding in
Oklahoma until near the end of month when seeding jumped 40 points. Planting
accelerated in the central Great Plains the last week of May. Sorghum was
heading and turning color in Texas.

Rice was virtually seeded by the end of May. Only 5 percent remained to
be planted in California and 2 percent each in Arkansas and Louisiana. Ory
weather caused uneven emergence in Arkansas,

Spring wheat was virtually planted by midmonth with the exception of Idaho
and North Dakota. Spring wheat was mostly fair to good as the month drew to a
close. The lack of moisture began taking its toll at the end of May,
especially in Montana. Jointing was underway in Idaho and Montana.

Inadequate moisture and disease plagued winter wheat in the central and
northern Great Plains during May. Crop condition was mostly good to fair in
the Corn Belt and Southeast. Despite significant precipitation at the end of
May, wheat remained mostly fair in the central and northern Great Plains. The
crop was 74 percent headed, 4 points ahead of normal. Wheat began turning
color in the Corn Belt and centra} Great Plains. Harvest was underway in
Oklahoma and Texas and gained momentum in the Delta and Southeast.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 B-2 NASS, USDA


The Michigan crop suffered little freeze damage to blooms but did have
some damage from winter kill. Rain is needed to size the crop. The New
Jersey crop is varied throughout the State. Some orchards were severely
winter damaged. The Pennsylvania crop is developing slightly later than last
year's because of cool weather. Disease and insect damage has been limited.

The California Freestone crop, at 510 million pounds, is fractionally less
than 1987. Fruit size is good and quality is expected to be excellent. About
25 percent of the crop has been picked.

The Clingstone crop, at 1.00 billion pounds, is 4 percent more than last
year. Hail damaged the crop north of Modesto. Some of that fruit may be
juiced rather than canned. The crop is maturing a few days ahead of normal.
Fruit size is large and guality good.

BARTLETT PEARS: Production in California, Oregon and Washington is forecast
at 515 thousand tons (467 thousand metric tons), down 10
percent from last year but 11 percent more than 1986.

California's expected production of 295 thousand tons is down 9 percent
from 1987. The crop is in good condition. Good to excettent size and quality
are expected in most areas. Hail and frost damaged the crop along the North
Coast, earlier in the year.

The Oregon production forecast of 70.0 thousand tons is 10 percent less
than last year. The major growing areas experienced a mild winter and
spring. Bloom and set were good. There has been some minor hail damage in
the Medford area.

Washington's expected production of 150 thousand tons is 12 percent below
a year ago. The winter was mild with no winter kill. The cool damp spring
has resulted in fire blight, especially in the Yakima Valley. Warmer, drier
weather is needed to help control tree disease.

PAPAYA: Production for Hawaii is forecast at 5.00 million pounds (2270 metric

tons) in June, 10 percent higher than June 1987. Production
increases are expected through September with output totaling 6.00 million
pounds (2720 metric tons) in July, 6.50 million pounds (2950 metric tons) in
August, and 7.00 million pounds (3180 metric tons) in September.

Fresh utilization is estimated at 4.45 million pounds (2020 metric tons)
in May, 5 percent higher than April and 7 percent higher than last May.
Year-to-date output still lags 3 percent behind the same 5 month period of
1987.

Weather conditions during May were generally favorable for fruit
development. The month began with a few heavy showers but the following weeks
were mainly a mixture of light rains and sunshine over the major producing
orchards.

Crop area totaled 4330 acres (1750 hectares) in May, 4 percent higher than
April and 10 percent more than last May. Harvested area for May of 2340 acres
(950 hectares) was 4 percent higher than the previous month and 1 percent more
than the May crop a year ago.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 B-4 NASS, USDA


UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY~-AREA PLANTED AND HARVESTED
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

INDICATED INDICATED
1988 1988

1,000 ACRES
WINTER WHEAT 48,78) 48,590 39,317 39,826
SPRING POTATOES 82.5 80.1 80.7 79.0

UNITED STATES CROP SUMMARY-YIELD PER ACRE AND PRODUCTION
(DOMESTIC UNITS)

YIELD PER ACRE

CROP AND UNIT : : INDICATED
INDICATED: Loreen anenereeeeecenenne
1987: 1988: 1987 : MAY 1, : JUN],
: : 3 1988: 1988
1,000
WINTER WHEAT BU: 39.8 39.4 1,562,896 1,620,257 1,570,417
SPRING POTATOES CWT : 220 251 17,724 19,752 19,831
PASTURE & RANGE :

FEED 1/ PCT : 84 68
PEACHES LB: 2,428,800 2,630,500
APRICOTS TON : 115.0 110.9
NECTARINES :

(CALIF) “3 191.0 195.0
PLUMS (CALIF) " : 245.0 260.0
DRIED PRUNES :

(CALIF) soo: 228.0 160.0
ALMONDS (CALIF) LB: 660,000 580,000 580,000
CITRUS FRUITS 2/ : 1986-87 1987-88 1987-88

ORANGES BOX 182,225 199,230 201,030

GRAPEFRUIT " 63,025 67,400 68,650

1/ PASTURE AND RANGE FEED CONDITION AS OF FIRST OF MONTH. THE 1977-86 AVERAGE
IS 82 PERCENT. 2/ SEASON BEGINS WITH BLOOM OF THE FIRST YEAR SHOWN AND ENDS
WITH THE COMPLETION OF HARVEST THE FOLLOWING YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-3 NASS, USDA


RELIABILITY OF JUNE 1 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST

The winter wheat production forecast in this report is based on mail and
objective yield surveys conducted just prior to June 1. Acreage for harvest
is based on information provided by both surveys. The yield estimate is based
on counts and measurements from a probability sample of wheat fields and on
mail reports from farmers on the condition and probable yield of the crop.
Both surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors common to all
surveys. This production forecast is also subject to change due to growing
conditions that may affect the crop after June 1.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1 winter wheat
production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based
on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation
between the June 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage
of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the
1967-1986 twenty-year period; the square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The “Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 winter wheat production
forecast is 5.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the
current production forecast of 1.57 billion bushels will not be above or below
the final estimate by more than 5.6 percent or approximately 88 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 9.8 percent or approximately 154 million bushels.
Differences between the June 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 87 million bushels, ranging
from 14 million to 174 million bushels. The June 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 5 times and above 5 times.

l The CROP PRODUCTION report contains State and National estimates with

related information on selected agricultural commodities. These data were
prepared and adopted by the Agricultural Statistics Board which consists of
commodity statisticians from the field offices and Washington headquarters.

APPROVED: AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD:
Rich D. Allen, Chairperson,
L. Duane Jewell, Secretary,

David J. Aune, Clifton D. James,
ka WL Donald M. Bay, Darwin E, Ransom,
James £. Brewster, John C. Ranek,
en on. Arvin R. Budge, Vaughn L. Siegenthaler,
Ray S. Crickenberger, James L. Smith,
William N. Dowdy, Eldon J. Thiessen,
Donald J. Fedewa, Charles A. Van Lahr.

ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 A-2 NASS, USDA


SWEETPOTATOES

AREA PLANTED AREA HARVESTED

STATE penne ne nnn nnn eee n a nnn enn ne nn ene nee eee nen ne eee ee
1986 1987 1/ 1987 1/

1,000 ACRES 1,000 ACRES
ALA 6.4 6.8 6.3 6.7
CALIF 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.6
GA : 6.0 5.5 5.8 5.2
tA : 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0
MD : 1.0 8 a) 8
MISS : 5.5 5.0 5.2 4.5
NJ : 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Nc : 35.0 36.0 34.0 35.0
sc : 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.5
TENN 9 28 +9 +8
TEX 7.0 7.7 6.6 7.3
VA 1.0 1.0 +9 9
us : 97.1 96.7 93.4 93.3

YIELD PRODUCTION

1,000 CWT
ALA : 110 110 693 737
CALIF : 200 205 1,360 1,353
GA : 130 150 754 780
LA : 125 130 2,500 2,470
MD : 130 140 17 112
MISS : 100 110 520 495
NJ : 110 120 220 240
NC : 150 130 5,100 4,550
sc : 105 90 420 405
TENN : 110 110 99 88
TEX : 120 100 792 730
VA : 110 115 99 104
us : 136 129 12,674 12,064

PRODUCTION

1,000 ACRES CWT 1,000 CWT

ALA 4.9 4.1 125 135 682 613 554
ARIZ 4.9 5.3 275 270 1,298 1,348 1,43
CALIF 21.3 19.6 370 385 7,605 7,881 7,546
FLA :

HASTINGS : 26.5 26.5 170 235 6,860 4,505 6,228

OTHER : 2.1 2.5 190 210 7 399 525
LA : 23 4 60 60 35 18 24
NC : 14.5 14.4 140 165 2,055 2,030 2,376
TEX : 6.2 6.2 150 185 1,116 930 1,147
TOTAL : 80.7 79.0 220 251 19,822 17,724 19,83
CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,

JUNE 1988 A-13 NASS, USDA


U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION

JEL
BILLION BUSHELS

25

28

LS of

WINTER WHEAT: Production is forecast at 1.57 billion bushels (42.7 million
metric tons) as of June 1, 1988. This is slightly higher than
the 1987 production, but down 3 percent from the May 1 forecast. Harvested
area remains at 39.8 million acres (16.1 million hectares), up 1 percent from
last season, Yield prospects have declined to 39.4 bushels per acre, down 0.4
bushels from 1987 and 1.3 bushels per acre less than the May | forecast.

Crop conditions vary across the country. As of May 29, condition was
mostly fair to good in the Corn Belt and Southeast. Condition in the Plains
is mostly fair. Wheat in the Pacific Northwest is fair to good. Development
is generally at or ahead of average progress except in the Pacific Northwest
and Colorado. Wheat was turning in Illinois, Kansas, and Missouri. Harvest
has moved into Oklahoma and has expanded across the Delta and Southeast.

PEACHES: The forecast of 2.63 billion pounds (1.19 million metric tons), is 8
percent more than 1987 and 13 percent more than 1986.

The nine southern States expect to produce 641 million pounds, 29 percent
more than tast year's crop. Production is expected to be up throughout the
region. The South Carolina crop has suffered some freeze and hail damage.
Barring any-more adverse weather, growers expect to harvest the largest crop
since 1984. The fruit set was heavy and farmers have thinned extensively.
The crop is very clean. Dry weather is a concern, as producers need rain.
Harvest started in late May and should be very active by mid-June. Georgia
peaches had limited freeze and hail damage. The crop is in good condition but
rain fs needed as soil moisture supplies decline.

CROP PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS BOARD,
JUNE 1988 B-3 NASS, USDA