Cr Pr 2-2 (3-07)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released March 9, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Down 9 Percent

The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 7.43 million tons, down 9 percent from the previous

forecast and 18 percent below last season’s revised final utilization of 9.00 million tons. Florida's all orange

forecast, at 132 million boxes (5.94 million tons), is down 6 percent from February and 11 percent lower than

the revised utilization from the 2005-06 season’s crop. Below freezing temperatures were recorded on two

different occasions during the month but the duration was not long enough to cause any severe damage to

groves. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 67.0 million boxes (3.02 million tons),

down 11 percent from both the previous forecast and last season’s final utilization. The row count survey

conducted February 28 and March 1 indicates that less than 3 percent of the early-midseason orange rows

remain to be harvested. The current forecast is reduced from last month based on current utilization data. 

Florida’s Valencia forecast is 65.0 million boxes (2.93 million tons), unchanged from the February forecast

but down 11 percent from last season’s revised final utilization. Valencia harvest had begun, with nearly

1.5 million boxes utilized to March 1.

California’s all orange forecast, at 37.0 million boxes (1.39 million tons), is 20 percent below the January

forecast and 39 percent lower than last season’s revised final utilization of 60.5 million boxes (2.27 million

tons). Reports of damage from January’s freeze varied widely from groves being completely unaffected to

others where the crop was considered a complete loss. California’s navel orange utilization is forecast at

27.0 million boxes (1.01 million tons), down 18 percent from the previous forecast and 43 percent lower than

last season’s revised utilization. Harvest had begun before the freeze but many growers reported that much of

their remaining fruit would be utilized for juice. California’s Valencia forecast is 10.0 million boxes

(375,000 tons), down 23 percent from the January forecast and 26 percent below the revised utilization from

the 2005-06 season’s crop. Harvest will not begin for several more weeks. The Texas all orange forecast is

1.98 million boxes (84,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 24 percent higher than last

season’s final utilized production. The Texas crop was not faced with adverse weather conditions this season,

and growers are optimistic about their prospects for a good crop. Arizona’s all orange utilization forecast, at

350,000 boxes (14,000 tons), is unchanged form the previous forecast but 22 percent lower than the 2005-06

season. Navel harvest is nearly complete, with a higher percentage of this season’s crop being utilized for

juice.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season is forecast at 1.62 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.61 gallons per box last month but down from the 2005-06 season’s

yield of 1.63 gallons. Projected yield from the early-midseason portion is 1.56 gallons, up from 1.55 gallons

last month and 1.53 gallons last season. Valencias are projected to yield 1.72 gallons, down from

1.75 gallons for the 2005-06 crop. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season

will be similar to those of the past several seasons.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on March 9, 2007.

Secretary of

Agriculture

Mike Johanns

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Carol C. House
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts

Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Lemons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangelos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Tangerines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Crop Summary ........................................................................6

Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2005-2006

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

376.0

21.7

420.0

40.5

858.2

25.0

1.8

35.0

1.9

63.7

401.0

23.5

455.0

42.4

921.9

386.0

20.3

405.0

45.0

856.3

19.0

2.0

30.0

1.5

52.5

405.0

22.3

435.0

46.5

908.8

31.4

80.8

22.9

38.3

28.8

37.6

34.8

22.9

38.3

29.5

31.8

77.3

22.9

38.3

28.9

35.8

83.5

27.0

38.9

32.9

35.2

33.3

27.0

35.0

30.5

35.8

79.0

27.0

38.8

32.8

11,806

1,753

9,618

1,551

24,728

940

63

802

73

1,878

12,746

1,816

10,420

1,624

26,606

13,819

1,695

10,935

1,751

28,200

669

67

810

53

1,599

14,488

1,762

11,745

1,804

29,799

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the “Crop Production 2006 Summary.”

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested 2006 2007

2006 2007 2006 2007

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Jan

Feb

2,280

2,285

2,350

2,360

1,790

1,795

1,135

1,145

2,920

2,240

2,410

2,070

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted March 1, 2007 1 2

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

1,000 Boxes 3 1,000 Boxes 3 1,000 Boxes 3 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early, Mid &

 Navel 4

 AZ

 CA

 FL 5

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples 5

 FL

Grapefruit

 White

 FL

 Colored

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 6

 CA 6

 FL

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

240

44,000

79,100

1,500

124,840

190

20,500

70,700

270

91,660

430

64,500

149,800

1,770

216,500

650

3,400

9,400

140

6,100

12,800

6,600

25,640

400

2,900

4,450

7,750

2,400

20,500

22,900

1,550

250

47,000

75,000

1,400

123,650

200

13,500

72,700

200

86,600

450

60,500

147,700

1,600

210,250

700

6,500

12,800

100

6,000

19,300

5,200

30,600

550

3,600

5,500

9,650

3,800

21,000

24,800

1,400

200

27,000

67,000

1,710

95,910

150

10,000

65,000

270

75,420

350

37,000

132,000

1,980

171,330

10,000

18,000

100

4,800

28,000

6,500

39,400

300

2,600

4,800

7,700

2,500

16,500

19,000

1,250

9

1,650

3,560

64

5,283

7

769

3,182

11

3,969

16

2,419

6,742

75

9,252

29

145

400

5

204

545

264

1,018

15

109

211

335

91

779

870

70

9

1,763

3,375

60

5,207

8

506

3,272

9

3,795

17

2,269

6,647

69

9,002

32

276

544

3

201

820

208

1,232

21

135

261

417

144

798

942

63

8

1,013

3,015

73

4,109

6

375

2,925

11

3,317

14

1,388

5,940

84

7,426

425

765

3

161

1,190

260

1,614

11

98

228

337

95

627

722

56

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 2005-06 revised. 3 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90;

Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities

of tangerines in TX. 5 Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

3,452.0

78,327.0

4,168.0

580.0

2,838.0

1,396.0

6,522.0

57,344.0

40,575.0

1,870.0

14,899.0

1,044.0

813.0

40.5

1,243.0

1.4

189.0

75,522.0

1,950.0

15,274.0

14,948.0

326.0

1,366.7

46.0

1,629.8

925.5

429.0

1,134.7

17.7

70.7

58.4

987.9

95.6

44,089.0

11.5

2,951.0

70,648.0

6,477.0

60,807.0

21,384.0

39,423.0

1,576.0

475.0

2,821.0

274.0

4,937.0

347.0

46,810.0

31,117.0

1,815.0

13,878.0

1,021.0

767.0

39.2

1,209.0

1.0

179.0

74,602.0

1,770.0

12,731.5

12,408.0

323.5

1,304.1

908.8

339.0

22.5

1,537.6

884.1

407.0

6.3

0.1

29.4

79.2

1,115.5

17.5

67.5

54.3

976.2

18.5

87.2

0.4

11.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Acreage is not estimated. 4 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

“

Tons

“

“

“

Bu

“

Cwt

Bu

“

Tons

Bu

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Bu

Lbs

“

“

“

Bu

Lbs

Bales

“

“

Tons

“

Lbs

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

“

“

“

Cwt

“

“

“

“

Lbs

Cwt

Lbs

61.0

149.1

16.2

2.33

3.35

1.78

59.5

21.5

6,868

26.3

56.2

13.4

38.7

41.7

29.5

33.2

1,366

14.4

720

2,874

1,100

1,069

42.7

1,211

819

811

1,122

25.9

32.8

2,144

1,151

1,577

1,493

797

1,160

43,000

1,964

92

390

257

293

340

402

110

189

250

180,051

10,534,868

104,849

141,666

71,666

70,000

93,764

10,195

193,736

7,193

277,538

4,642

1,812,036

1,298,081

53,475

460,480

1,394,332

7,632.0

11,019

28,220

3,474,450

1,100

191,405

3,188,247

2,143,613

21,729.0

20,973.0

756.0

33,765

29,799

726,724

259

24,247

13,203

3,244

590

7,300

4,300

57,686.7

7,248

434,683

4,495

19,766

18,444

391,978

2,038

16,441

4,500

2,875

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Units

Production

2005 2006 2007

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Tons

“

“

“

“

“

1,000 Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

“

Lbs

Tons

“

“

“

Lbs

Tons

Lbs

Tons

Gals

1,018

870

9,252

70

335

29

9,719.9

81.7

20,900.0

7,813.7

142.0

32,900.0

1,184.6

823.3

97.0

9.1

915,000

27.6

280,250

355.0

1,242

1,232

942

9,002

63

417

32

10,072.1

44.7

17,000.0

6,346.3

23.5

28,300.0

1,010.1

841.0

170.0

21.3

1,095,000

41.0

188,900

350.0

1,449

1,614

722

7,426

56

337

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2006 2007 2006 2007

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 4

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 5

1,396,990

31,698,150

1,686,750

234,720

1,148,510

564,950

2,639,390

23,206,540

16,420,300

756,770

6,029,480

422,500

329,010

16,390

503,030

570

76,490

30,563,000

789,150

6,181,240

6,049,310

131,930

553,090

18,620

659,560

374,540

173,610

459,200

7,160

28,610

23,630

399,790

38,690

17,842,380

4,650

1,194,240

28,590,540

2,621,180

24,607,980

8,653,890

15,954,090

637,790

192,230

1,141,630

110,890

1,997,950

140,430

18,943,540

12,592,740

734,510

5,616,290

413,190

310,400

15,860

489,270

400

72,440

30,190,680

716,300

5,152,310

5,021,390

130,920

527,760

367,780

137,170

9,110

622,250

357,790

164,710

2,550

40

11,880

32,050

451,430

7,080

27,320

21,970

395,060

7,490

35,290

150

4,650

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Acreage is not estimated. 5 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2006 2007 2006 2007

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.28

9.36

36.29

5.22

7.51

3.98

2.13

1.20

7.70

1.65

3.53

29.99

2.60

2.81

1.98

2.23

1.53

0.90

0.81

3.22

1.23

1.20

2.87

1.36

0.92

0.91

1.26

58.04

73.50

2.40

1.29

1.77

1.67

0.89

1.30

48.20

2.20

0.10

43.68

28.79

32.82

38.07

45.01

0.12

21.13

28.02

3,920,150

267,597,970

95,117,410

128,517,230

65,014,300

63,502,930

1,360,980

231,220

8,787,720

182,710

7,049,790

4,211,150

49,315,540

35,327,980

1,455,350

12,532,210

632,460

6,923,630

279,900

12,800

1,575,980

500

86,820

86,769,860

972,330

4,730,930

4,566,330

164,600

30,631,090

27,033,200

329,640

11,750

1,099,830

598,880

147,150

26,760

3,310

1,950

26,170

3,290

19,716,890

203,890

896,570

836,610

17,779,820

920

745,750

2,040

130,410

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2005 2006 2007

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 Lemons

 Oranges 3

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL) 3

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA) (shelled)

 Hazelnuts (OR)

 Pecans

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

923,510

789,250

8,393,270

63,500

303,910

26,310

4,408,870

74,070

9,480

7,088,470

128,820

14,920

1,074,610

746,900

88,000

8,260

415,040

25,040

127,120

322,050

6,210

1,117,650

854,570

8,166,480

57,150

378,300

29,030

4,568,630

40,530

7,710

5,757,220

21,320

12,840

916,370

762,970

154,220

19,320

496,680

37,190

85,680

317,510

7,240

1,464,200

654,990

6,736,750

50,800

305,720

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2 Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3 Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 12 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 13 NASS, USDA

February Weather Summary

During February, wetter-than-normal conditions were observed in most areas from northern California

eastward across the interior Northwest, northern Plains, and western Corn Belt. Precipitation was especially

beneficial in the Sierra Nevada, where—according to the California Department of Water Resources—the

water equivalent of the high-elevation snow pack improved from 8 to 16 inches (44 to 64 percent of normal

for the date) between January 31 and February 28. Precipitation also aided winter grains across the interior

Northwest and boosted high-elevation snow packs from the northern Great Basin to the northern Rockies. 

However, areas farther south received little moisture, resulting in drought intensification across southern

California and Arizona.

Meanwhile on the Plains, wetter-than-normal conditions across the northern half of the region contrasted with

below-normal precipitation farther south. Conditions were dry enough on the southern Plains to contribute to

a dust storm on February 24, when high winds raked the region. On the northern Plains, however, occasional

snow provided both moisture and insulation for winter wheat.

During the mid- to late-month period, wintry precipitation shifted into the Midwest and Northeast, hampering

rural travel and increasing livestock stress. A mid-February storm was particularly harsh across the central

and eastern Corn Belt and the interior Northeast, with at least 10 inches of snow reported from central Illinois

into northern Ohio, and as much as 20 to 40 inches falling from eastern New York into western Maine. Two

late-month storms, just 5 days apart, produced a variety of weather impacts. Both storms plastered the upper

Midwest with heavy snow, raked the Plains and Corn Belt with high winds, and triggered lowland flooding in

parts of the central and eastern Corn Belt.

Despite occasional showers and several severe thunderstorm outbreaks, most of the South observed

below-normal February rainfall. As a result, spring planting preparations and other early-season fieldwork

proceeded with only minor delays. Nevertheless, strong thunderstorms spawned Southern tornadoes on

February 1-2, 12-13, 23-24, and 28. The fourth severe weather outbreak continued into early March. Storms

were particularly deadly in central Florida during the pre-dawn hours of February 2, when there were

20 tornado-related fatalities in Lake County. Elsewhere across central and interior southern Florida, the

coldest air of the season brought light freezes on February 17 and 19, although temperatures were not low

enough to significantly threaten citrus, sugarcane, strawberries, or vegetables.

Colder-than-normal weather from the Plains to the East Coast contrasted with near- to above-normal

temperatures in the West. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 10 degrees F below normal from the

central Corn Belt eastward into the central Appalachians. It was the coldest February since 1979 at numerous

locations in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States. Meanwhile, monthly temperatures averaged at least

5 degrees F above normal at several interior Western sites.

February Agricultural Summary

February was colder than usual for most States east of the Rocky Mountains, with the exception of a few

scattered areas. From the northern Great Plains stretching east toward the Ohio Valley, average temperatures

were 6 to 12 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, the northern Intermountain region and the central Rocky

Mountains experienced above normal temperatures throughout much of February.

Precipitation was below normal in the southern Great Plains, Delta, and the Southeast regions. In Texas,

sunny conditions promoted fieldwork and crop development, yet more rain was needed to aid field activities. 

In contrast, precipitation during February was as much as 200 percent or more of normal in scattered pockets

throughout the northern Rocky Mountains, northern Great Plains, and parts of the central Intermountain

region. In North Dakota, precipitation in the form of snow provided excellent snow cover for alfalfa and

winter wheat. The heavy snowfall also provided protection to the winter wheat crop in Montana from wind,

freeze, and drought damage.

Elsewhere, in California insufficient rainfall affected small grains and winter pastures early in the month but

conditions started to improve in some areas after mid-month. Cold fronts swept through Florida, causing

producers to provide cold protection to most crops as temperatures dipped below freezing. However,

Florida’s crops escaped significant damage from the cold weather.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 14 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for the 2006 crop year is estimated at 29.8 million

tons, 12 percent above 2005 and up fractionally from last month. Harvested area is estimated at

908,800 acres for sugar and seed during the 2006 crop year, down 1 percent from the 2005 harvested area but

unchanged from the February estimate. Yield is estimated at 32.8 tons per acre, 3.9 tons greater than the

2005 crop and 0.1 ton higher than the previous estimate.

The yield in Florida for sugar and seed, at 35.8 tons per acre, is up 0.1 ton from last month and 4.0 tons from

last year. Near freezing temperatures in Florida during February did little to no damage to sugarcane plants. 

Harvest is progressing normally and is expected to conclude by mid-March. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana,

and Texas are carried forward from February. 

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.07 million pounds for February, down 14 percent

from January and 8 percent less than February 2006. Area in crop totaled 2,360 acres, up less than 1 percent

from last month and 3 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,145 acres in February, up

1 percent from January but 36 percent lower than February 2006. Conditions in papaya growing areas were

generally favorable during February which resulted in trees showing new growth and steady flowering. 

Heavy rain slowed field activities during the last week of the month.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2006-07 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.61 million tons, up 3 percent from the

previous forecast and 31 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's

grapefruit production is forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.19 million tons), up 8 percent from the February

forecast and 45 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes

(820,000 tons). The all white grapefruit forecast is 10.0 million boxes (425,000 tons), up 11 percent from

February and 54 percent above last season’s final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 18.0 million

boxes (765,000 tons), is up 6 percent from last month and 41 percent above last season's utilization. The row

count survey conducted February 28 and March 1 showed 52 percent of all grapefruit rows harvested

compared to 58 percent harvested to the same point last year. Overall, fruit quality has been reported as

excellent this season.

California’s grapefruit forecast, at 4.80 million boxes (161,000 tons), is down 20 percent from both the

previous forecast and the previous season. Damage from the January freeze varied widely depending on

variety and grove location. Harvest had resumed in the Central Valley with high packing house eliminations

due to ice marking. Fruit in most of the desert areas was reported to have experienced less freeze damage

than in other areas of the State. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 6.50 million boxes (260,000 tons),

unchanged from the January 1 forecast but up 25 percent from last season’s utilized production. Arizona’s

grapefruit forecast is 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season’s

utilization.

Lemons: The forecast for the 2006-07 U.S. lemon crop, at 722,000 tons, is down 18 percent from the

January 1 forecast and 23 percent below last season’s utilization. California production is forecast at

16.5 million boxes (627,000 tons), down 20 percent from the previous forecast and 21 percent lower than

utilization for the 2005-06 season. Harvest had begun when the freeze hit in January. Harvest resumed on a

limited basis in February as marketable fruit was identified. Arizona's 2006-07 lemon forecast, at

2.50 million boxes (95,000 tons), is down 11 percent from the January forecast and down 34 percent from the

previous season. The majority of the current season’s crop had been harvested before the freeze, which

effectively ended the season.

Tangelos: Florida’s tangelo forecast is 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons), up 4 percent from the February 1

forecast but down 11 percent from last season’s final utilized production. Weekly tangelo utilization had

declined significantly for the season, with less than 10,000 boxes harvested the last two weeks of the month.

Tangerines: The 2006-07 U.S. tangerine forecast is 337,000 tons, down 11 percent from the February

forecast and 19 percent lower than last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is

forecast at 4.80 million boxes (228,000 tons), up 4 percent from the February forecast but down 13 percent

from last season’s utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Early variety tangerine harvest is complete, while the row

count survey conducted on February 28 and March 1 showed 36 percent of the later maturing Honey

tangerine rows had been harvested. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 15 NASS, USDA

California’s forecast of tangerine production, at 2.60 million boxes (98,000 tons), is down 32 percent from the

January 1 forecast and 28 percent below last season’s utilized production. The bulk of the Clementine crop

was harvested before January’s freeze. Damage to later maturing varieties varied by location. Harvest

continued as growers encountered marketable fruit. The Arizona tangerine forecast, at 300,000 boxes

(11,000 tons), is down 25 percent from the previous forecast and 45 percent below last year’s utilization. The

January freeze ended the harvest for the season.

Florida Citrus: Florida’s citrus crop escaped serious damage from two cold snaps during February. The

first occurred early in the month with temperatures recorded in the low to mid 30s in all citrus areas, while

strong winds produced tornados and heavy rainfall in the northern citrus area. The storms skirted the upper

part of the citrus region, just touching the northernmost groves. The second cold front came two weeks later,

with below freezing temperatures recorded across the State. Cold pockets between 27 and 32 degrees were

recorded in some citrus areas, but the duration was generally not long enough to damage fruit or trees. Some

freeze-burn was reported on flushes of new growth, which could affect next year’s crop. The cold weather

was beneficial in holding back what could have been an early bloom and helping mature fruit on some of the

later ripening tangerine varieties. Warmer weather followed and continued through the end of the month. 

Rainfall was plentiful in the north, but inadequate on the east coast and in the south. Growers ran drip

irrigation and pumped water into grove middles to keep the trees hydrated. Harvest of early and midseason

oranges was at peak levels early in the month but then dropped in each succeeding week. Valencia harvest

began during the third week. Grapefruit harvest for processing increased, reaching one and a half million

boxes during the second week. Navel orange, Sunburst tangerine and Tangelo harvests slowed during the

month and were virtually complete for the season. Growers and caretakers began hedging and topping as well

as applying pesticides in preparation for next season’s crop.

Arizona Citrus: Extended freezing temperatures in January effectively ended this season’s harvest of

lemons and tangerines. Navel orange and grapefruit harvests continued through the month, but with a larger

percentage of the crop being utilized for juice. Packers are still evaluating grove conditions following the

freeze. Growers are monitoring bud count and growth and are concerned about possible damage to next

season’s bloom.

Texas Citrus: Harvests of early and mid-season oranges and grapefruit continued, while Valencia orange

harvest began in early February. Growers generally reported good quality and size of fruit. After getting off

to a slow start, year-to-date shipments of oranges and grapefruit were ahead of last season by the last week of

February.

California Citrus: Damage to the State’s citrus crop was still being assessed. Harvest for fresh market

utilization continued, especially in areas that did not experience the most extreme temperatures. Harvest of

oranges for juice continued. Some growers treated groves to control fungus and weeds.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape vineyard operators continued fertilizing, irrigating, pruning,

applying herbicides, and making repairs to their trellis systems. Stone fruit and pomegranate cultural

practices included irrigation, applications of fertilizer and pesticides, pruning, shredding, and the pushing of

orchards in order to replant. Apricot trees were blooming in Tulare County and early blooms were noted on

peaches, nectarines, plums, and pluots. Digging of strawberry nursery stock was complete by the end of the

month. Almond, walnut, and pistachio growers continued with pruning, shredding, irrigating, applying

herbicides, and the removal of old orchards for replanting. Almond trees were blooming and new almond and

pistachio orchards were planted.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 16 NASS, USDA

Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida,

which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start

of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on

administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is

determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are

conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of

production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in

October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for

navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Due to severe weather conditions in California and the

Desert Southwest in January, some survey procedures have been changed for this season. The grower and

packer surveys normally used to set the April forecast were conducted a month earlier than normal and the

California Valencia objective measurement survey was discontinued for this season. All estimating States

submitted new analyses of current citrus utilization as well as revisions to the 2005-06 season’s utilized

production for this report. All States will submit new analyses of citrus utilization in April, as originally

scheduled. Monthly forecasts of Florida citrus utilization are unaffected by these changes.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona,

California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These 4 States submit their analyses of the current

situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to

prepare the published March 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each

month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits

Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the

marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. 

Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.2 percent. However, if the

6 abnormal production seasons (4 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons) are excluded, the "Root Mean

Square Error" is 1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production

forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.2 percent, or 1.9 percent, excluding

abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed

5.6 percent, or 3.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

237,000 tons (193,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons

(3,000 tons to 503,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below

the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). 

The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final

production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

March 2007 17 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics

Service to contact for additional information.

Jeff Geuder, Chief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head ................................................. (202) 720-2127

Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-5944

Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-8068

Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed ................................ (202) 720-9526

Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-7688

Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds ...................... (202) 720-7369

King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 690-3234

Greg Thessen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops ........................ (202) 720-2127

Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section

Lance Honig, Head . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-2127

Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco .................... (202) 720-7235

Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries ....................................... (202) 720-2157

Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits .................................. (202) 720-5412

Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4215

Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils,

Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

Wrinkled Seed Peas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-3250

Faye Propsom- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

Plums, Prunes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (360) 902-1940

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (202) 720-4285
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