Cr Pr 2-2 (7-04)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released July 12, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Winter Wheat Production Down 4 Percent from June Forecast

Other Spring Wheat Production Down 6 Percent from 2003

Durum Wheat Production Down 8 Percent from 2003

All Wheat Production Down 12 Percent from 2003

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.47 billion bushels. This is down 4 percent from last month and

14 percent below 2003. The U.S. yield is forecast at 42.2 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from last

month.

Hard Red Winter, at 838 million bushels, is down 5 percent from a month ago. White Winter is up 1 percent

from last month and now totals 248 million bushels. Soft Red Winter, at 383 million bushels, is down

3 percent from the last forecast.

Durum wheat production is forecast at 88.6 million bushels, down 8 percent from 2003. The U.S. yield is

forecast at 33.2 bushels per acre, 0.5 bushel less than last year.

Other Spring wheat production is forecast at 501 million bushels, down 6 percent from 2003. The U.S.

yield is forecast at 37.9 bushels per acre, 1.8 bushels lower than last year. Of the total production, 459 million

is Hard Red Spring wheat, down 8 percent from last season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 2 NASS, USDA

The U.S. all orange July 1 forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 12.9 million tons, 2 percent below the June 1

forecast but 12 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 242 million boxes

(10.9 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast but 19 percent above the previous season. 

Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 126 million boxes (5.67 million tons), unchanged

from last month but 13 percent above the previous season. Harvest of the early and midseason varieties is

complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is 116 million boxes (5.22 million tons), down 3 percent from the June

forecast but 27 percent above last season's final utilization. The monthly row count survey indicates

96 percent of the Valencia crop harvested. However, all remaining fruit may not be harvested because the

processing plants that were still open July 1 planned to close July 10.

California's all orange forecast for July is 51.0 million boxes (1.91 million tons), down 6 percent from the

April 1 forecast and 17 percent below last season's final utilization. Navel oranges are forecast at 38.0 million

boxes (1.43 million tons), 3 percent below April’s forecast and 7 percent less than the previous season. 

Harvest of Navel oranges is complete with small quantities being held in cold storage. The forecast for

Valencia oranges is 13.0 million boxes (488,000 tons), down 13 percent from the previous forecast and

37 percent below last season's utilization. The Texas forecast for all oranges is 1.65 million boxes

(70,000 tons), 2 percent below the April 1 forecast but 5 percent above last season's final utilization. 

Arizona's all orange forecast, at 470,000 boxes (17,000 tons), is down 13 percent from the April 1 forecast

but unchanged from the previous season.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection remains at 1.56 gallons per box at

42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.45 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is

lowered from 1.70 to 1.69 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships

this year will be similar to those of the past several years.

This report was approved on July 12, 2004.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Joseph J. Jen

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Grains & Hay

Barley ............................................................................ 4

Oats .............................................................................. 4

Wheat, by Class ..................................................................... 6

Wheat, Durum ...................................................................... 6

Wheat, Other Spring ................................................................. 6

Wheat, Winter ...................................................................... 5

Wheat, Winter Wheat Head Population .................................................. 7

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

Tobacco ........................................................................... 8

Noncitrus Fruits and Tree Nuts

Almonds ......................................................................... 10

Apricots .......................................................................... 10

Grapes ........................................................................... 10

Papayas .......................................................................... 10

Peaches ........................................................................... 9

Citrus Fruits

Grapefruit ........................................................................ 11

Lemons .......................................................................... 11

Oranges .......................................................................... 11

Tangelos ......................................................................... 11

Tangerines ........................................................................ 11

Temples .......................................................................... 11

Potatoes and Miscellaneous Crops

Potatoes .......................................................................... 12

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

Lentils ........................................................................... 15

Peas, Austrian Winter ............................................................... 15

Peas, Dry Edible ................................................................... 15

Crop Comments ...................................................................... 25

Crop Summary ....................................................................... 16

Information Contacts .................................................................. 35

Reliability of Production Data in this Report .............................................. 33

Weather Maps ....................................................................... 22

Weather Summary .................................................................... 24
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 4 NASS, USDA

Oats: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted July 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

CA

ID

IL

IA

KS

MI

MN

MT

NE

NY

ND

OH

OR

PA

SD

TX

WI

Oth

 Sts 1

US

35

25

50

130

70

75

265

45

90

70

360

60

20

110

230

140

230

219

2,224

30

20

35

130

60

60

200

45

50

55

280

45

30

115

200

150

230

203

1,938

80.0

65.0

89.0

83.0

65.0

70.0

71.0

44.0

73.0

63.0

59.0

66.0

75.0

59.0

68.0

45.0

67.0

58.8

65.0

75.0

73.0

79.0

80.0

48.0

64.0

61.0

48.0

73.0

72.0

53.0

68.0

85.0

65.0

72.0

49.0

60.0

63.2

62.9

2,624

1,750

3,285

13,300

3,120

4,160

14,840

2,300

2,365

4,160

12,600

3,355

2,520

7,015

5,400

6,160

15,000

12,048

116,002

2,800

1,625

4,450

10,790

4,550

5,250

18,815

1,980

6,570

4,410

21,240

3,960

1,500

6,490

15,640

6,300

15,410

12,869

144,649

2,250

1,460

2,765

10,400

2,880

3,840

12,200

2,160

3,650

3,960

14,840

3,060

2,550

7,475

14,400

7,350

13,800

12,820

121,860

 1 Other States include CO, GA, IN, ME, MO, NC, OK, SC, UT, WA, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in

the "Small Grains 2004 Summary".

Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted July 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AZ

CA

CO

DE

ID

MD

MN

MT

ND

OR

PA

SD

UT

VA

WA

WY

Oth

 Sts 1

US

30

58

82

21

720

38

170

810

1,980

60

65

55

35

45

310

75

134

4,688

30

80

76

24

740

34

90

780

1,580

62

60

50

40

40

280

70

116

4,152

118.0

64.0

109.0

59.0

66.0

57.0

75.0

39.0

60.0

64.0

61.0

53.0

80.0

62.0

47.0

95.0

58.4

58.9

120.0

63.0

115.0

81.0

78.0

75.0

58.0

51.0

57.0

74.0

60.0

59.0

78.0

70.0

65.0

93.0

61.0

63.5

4,400

5,325

7,488

1,909

54,670

3,198

6,150

39,060

58,500

3,604

4,440

1,575

2,176

3,157

19,040

4,680

7,534

226,906

3,540

3,712

8,938

1,239

47,520

2,166

12,750

31,590

118,800

3,840

3,965

2,915

2,800

2,790

14,570

7,125

7,827

276,087

3,600

5,040

8,740

1,944

57,720

2,550

5,220

39,780

90,060

4,588

3,600

2,950

3,120

2,800

18,200

6,510

7,080

263,502

 1 Other States include KS, KY, ME, MI, NE, NV, NJ, NY, NC, OH, and WI. Individual State estimates will be published in the

"Small Grains 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 5 NASS, USDA

Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted July 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Jun 1 Jul 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AR

CA

CO

DE

GA

ID

IL

IN

KS

KY

MD

MI

MS

MO

MT

NE

NY

NC

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

TN

TX

VA

WA

WY

Oth

 Sts 1

US

570

370

2,200

47

230

720

810

430

10,000

330

145

660

125

870

1,720

1,820

120

410

1,000

4,600

940

165

185

1,380

270

3,450

160

1,800

145

869

36,541

620

300

1,750

44

200

680

970

440

8,700

370

145

610

155

940

1,550

1,800

95

440

880

4,600

850

135

180

1,250

280

3,700

190

1,700

135

1,116

34,825

50.0

61.0

35.0

41.0

46.0

80.0

65.0

69.0

48.0

62.0

37.0

68.0

49.0

61.0

37.0

46.0

53.0

36.0

68.0

39.0

51.0

43.0

39.0

43.0

50.0

28.0

46.0

65.0

27.0

47.0

46.7

51.0

75.0

30.0

63.0

43.0

81.0

58.0

65.0

39.0

62.0

63.0

70.0

51.0

55.0

34.0

35.0

51.0

47.0

67.0

37.0

59.0

50.0

44.0

35.0

53.0

33.0

63.0

64.0

22.0

45.1

43.6

52.0

75.0

27.0

61.0

46.0

85.0

58.0

65.0

36.0

55.0

61.0

64.0

53.0

50.0

38.0

32.0

52.0

48.0

64.0

36.0

59.0

50.0

47.0

35.0

48.0

31.0

61.0

66.0

22.0

43.1

42.2

28,500

22,570

77,000

1,927

10,580

57,600

52,650

29,670

480,000

20,460

5,365

44,880

6,125

53,070

63,640

83,720

6,360

14,760

68,000

179,400

47,940

7,095

7,215

59,340

13,500

96,600

7,360

117,000

3,915

40,827

1,707,069

32,240

22,500

47,250

2,684

9,200

57,800

56,260

28,600

313,200

20,350

8,845

39,040

8,215

47,000

58,900

57,600

4,940

21,120

56,320

165,600

50,150

6,750

8,460

43,750

13,440

114,700

11,590

112,200

2,970

48,061

1,469,735

 1 Other States include AL, AZ, FL, IA, LA, MN, NV, NJ, NM, ND, UT, WV, and WI. Individual State level estimates will be

published in the "Small Grains 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 6 NASS, USDA

Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2003 and Forecasted July 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003

2004

2003 2004

Jun 1 Jul 1

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

AZ

CA

MT

ND

Oth

 Sts 1

US

115

115

630

1,980

29

2,869

105

110

590

1,850

16

2,671

100.0

100.0

23.0

29.5

25.4

33.7

100.0

85.0

105.0

85.0

27.0

28.0

29.1

33.2

11,500

11,500

14,490

58,410

737

96,637

11,025

9,350

15,930

51,800

466

88,571

 1 Other States include MN and SD. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2004 Summary".

Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted July 1, 2004

State

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

ID

MN

MT

ND

OR

SD

WA

 Oth

 Sts 1

US

450

1,800

2,700

6,400

140

1,340

545

54

13,429

470

1,570

2,700

6,200

175

1,500

555

40

13,210

66.0

58.0

22.0

39.5

40.0

42.0

41.0

42.5

39.7

75.0

47.0

27.0

36.0

50.0

38.0

50.0

53.1

37.9

29,900

61,200

75,900

165,200

4,680

24,000

25,370

2,667

388,917

29,700

104,400

59,400

252,800

5,600

56,280

22,345

2,295

532,820

35,250

73,790

72,900

223,200

8,750

57,000

27,750

2,125

500,765

 1 Other States include CO, NV, UT, WI, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2004

Summary".

Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 2002-2003

and Forecasted July 1, 2004 1

Year

Winter Spring

Hard Total

Red

Soft

Red White HardRed White Durum

1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels 1,000 Bushels

2002

2003

2004

620,328

1,062,889

838,318

320,968

379,196

382,973

195,705

264,984

248,444

351,439

499,926

459,451

37,478

32,894

41,314

79,960

96,637

88,571

1,605,878

2,336,526

2,059,071

 1 Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data. The previous end-of-season class percentages are used

throughout the forecast season.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 7 NASS, USDA

Winter Wheat: Head Population

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting Objective Yield surveys in 10 winter wheat

estimating States during 2004. Randomly selected plots in winter wheat fields are visited monthly from May

through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this

survey. The final number of heads is determined when the plots are harvested.

Winter Wheat: Heads per Square Foot,

Selected States, 2000-2004

State Month 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1

Number Number Number Number Number

CO

IL

KS

MO

MT

NE

OH

OK

TX

WA

July

August

Final

July

August

Final

July

August

Final

July

August

Final

July

August

Final

July

August

Final

July

August

Final

July

August

Final

July

August

Final

July

August

Final

48.0

47.7

47.7

55.0

55.0

55.0

46.5

46.5

46.5

49.9

49.9

49.9

41.3

40.3

40.3

57.5

58.3

58.3

59.5

59.5

59.5

40.2

40.2

40.2

31.4

31.5

31.6

40.6

40.0

40.1

34.2

33.7

33.9

53.1

52.0

52.0

39.7

39.7

39.7

47.7

47.7

47.7

25.6

25.2

25.2

46.6

46.8

46.8

52.0

51.7

51.7

32.5

32.5

32.5

33.4

33.4

33.4

37.3

36.7

36.8

35.9

35.6

35.6

59.4

59.5

59.5

41.7

41.7

41.7

54.8

54.8

54.8

36.3

34.3

34.3

52.4

52.8

52.8

58.5

57.8

57.8

40.2

40.2

40.2

34.2

34.2

34.2

37.8

37.6

37.8

38.9

38.4

38.4

56.5

56.6

56.6

50.4

50.6

50.6

51.3

51.3

51.3

44.5

42.9

42.9

59.5

59.6

59.6

53.1

53.3

53.3

46.8

46.8

46.8

36.3

35.9

36.3

37.2

36.5

36.6

32.8

51.0

41.2

51.8

40.2

43.0

52.1

40.5

31.7

36.4

 1 Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains 2004 Summary".
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 8 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type,

State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted July 1, 2004

Class and Type

Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Pounds Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Class 1, Flue-cured

 Type 11, Old Belts

 NC

 VA

 US

 Type 12, Eastern NC

 Belt

 NC

 Type 13, NC Border &

 SC Belt

 NC

 SC

 US

 Type 14, GA-FL Belt

 FL

 GA

 US

 Total 11-14

40,000

18,000

58,000

94,000

20,000

30,000

50,000

4,400

27,000

31,400

233,400

40,000

23,000

63,000

93,000

20,000

27,000

47,000

4,000

24,000

28,000

231,000

1,770

1,690

1,745

1,955

1,915

2,100

2,026

2,500

2,200

2,242

1,957

2,300

2,300

2,300

2,250

2,250

2,200

2,221

2,650

2,050

2,136

2,244

70,800

30,420

101,220

183,770

38,300

63,000

101,300

11,000

59,400

70,400

456,690

92,000

52,900

144,900

209,250

45,000

59,400

104,400

10,600

49,200

59,800

518,350
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 9 NASS, USDA

Peaches: Total Production by Type, State, and United States,

2002-2003 and Forecasted July 1, 2004

State

Total Production

2002 2003 2004

Million Pounds Million Pounds Million Pounds

AL

AR

CA

 Freestone

CO

CT

GA

ID

IL

IN

KY

LA

MD

MA

MI

MO

NJ

NY

NC

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

TN

TX

UT

VA

WA

WV

Total Above

CA

 Clingstone

US

22.5

6.1

796.0

19.0

1.3

90.0

13.0

17.2

3.1

1.2

1.5

7.0

2.3

14.0

8.0

62.0

10.0

10.0

9.4

4.0

7.9

60.0

160.0

4.0

12.0

6.5

7.0

46.0

10.0

1,411.0

1,124.0

2,535.0

9.0

8.9

826.0

21.0

1.5

110.0

13.0

20.5

3.4

1.8

1.6

8.5

3.0

47.0

10.0

70.0

13.0

6.0

11.3

3.0

4.5

73.0

100.0

3.5

7.0

9.0

10.0

39.0

12.5

1,447.0

1,072.0

2,519.0

31.0

10.0

780.0

22.0

1.3

110.0

14.0

22.0

2.4

1.6

1.1

8.8

1.8

43.0

11.0

70.0

11.0

9.0

7.4

3.3

7.7

54.0

140.0

3.5

25.0

9.5

10.0

40.0

12.0

1,462.4

1,150.0

2,612.4
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 10 NASS, USDA

Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts: Total Production by Crop, State,

and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted July 1, 2004

Crop and State

Total Production

2002 2003 2004

Tons Tons Tons

Grapes Table Type 1

 CA

Grapes Wine Type

 CA

Grapes Raisin Type 1 2

 CA

All Grapes

 CA

Apricots

 CA

 UT

 WA

 US

743,000

3,149,000

2,804,000

6,696,000

85,000

140

4,900

90,040

732,000

2,909,000

2,149,000

5,790,000

92,500

180

4,900

97,580

750,000

2,900,000

2,050,000

5,700,000

90,000

350

5,200

95,550

1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Almonds (Shelled Basis) 3

 CA 1,090,000 1,040,000 1,080,000

 1 Fresh equivalent of dried and not dried. 2 The Raisin Industry Diversion Program (RID) was not implemented in 2003 and 2004, but was implemented on the 2002 bearing

acres only. No production was realized from these acres. Acres enrolled are as follows: 27,000 for 2002. 3 Utilized production.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2003 2004

2003 2004 2003 2004

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

May

Jun

2,175

2,170

2,100

2,000

1,740

1,575

1,160

1,055

3,040

3,030

2,435

2,745

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 11 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted July 1, 2004 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 Valencia

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 4

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 TX

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 5

 CA 5

 FL 6

 US

Lemons

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

270

32,000

128,000

1,530

161,800

250

19,500

102,000

210

121,960

520

51,500

230,000

1,740

283,760

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

5,900

46,700

5,900

58,660

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

18,300

21,100

2,150

200

41,000

112,000

1,350

154,550

270

20,500

91,000

220

111,990

470

61,500

203,000

1,570

266,540

1,300

16,200

22,500

130

5,600

38,700

5,650

50,080

430

2,500

5,500

8,430

3,000

24,000

27,000

2,350

300

38,000

126,000

1,420

165,720

170

13,000

116,000

230

129,400

470

51,000

242,000

1,650

295,120

1,400

15,900

24,900

140

5,400

40,800

5,700

52,040

690

2,400

6,500

9,590

3,000

18,000

21,000

1,000

10

1,200

5,760

65

7,035

9

731

4,590

9

5,339

19

1,931

10,350

74

12,374

70

803

1,182

5

198

1,985

236

2,424

23

83

314

420

106

695

801

97

8

1,538

5,040

57

6,643

10

769

4,095

9

4,883

18

2,307

9,135

66

11,526

59

689

956

4

188

1,645

226

2,063

16

94

261

371

114

912

1,026

106

11

1,425

5,670

60

7,166

6

488

5,220

10

5,724

17

1,913

10,890

70

12,890

63

676

1,058

5

181

1,734

228

2,148

26

90

309

425

114

684

798

45

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Includes seedy. 5 Includes tangelos and tangors. 6 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo, Sunburst,

and Honey varieties only.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 12 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 2003-2004

Seasonal

Group and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Winter 1

 CA

 FL

 Total

Spring 1

 AZ

 CA

 FL

 Hastings

 Other FL

 NC

 TX

 Total

Summer

 AL

 CA

 CO

 DE

 IL

 KS

 MD

 MO

 NJ

 NM

 TX

 VA

 Total

8.5

6.1

14.6

7.6

19.0

30.0

21.5

8.5

19.0

13.0

88.6

3.0

7.5

6.8

3.7

6.5

2.8

4.7

8.0

2.8

1.9

9.0

7.0

63.7

8.5

5.7

14.2

6.2

17.5

22.8

16.2

6.6

16.0

11.0

73.5

2.9

7.0

6.5

3.3

5.0

3.2

4.7

6.0

2.3

1.5

10.4

6.0

58.8

8.5

5.8

14.3

7.6

19.0

28.6

20.3

8.3

17.0

12.5

84.7

1.8

7.2

6.7

3.6

6.1

2.7

4.6

7.1

2.7

1.9

8.4

6.2

59.0

8.5

5.5

14.0

6.2

17.5

22.5

16.0

6.5

15.0

10.5

71.7

2.8

7.0

6.4

3.2

4.8

3.1

4.6

5.8

2.3

1.5

9.6

6.0

57.1

310

240

282

275

440

280

280

280

175

240

288

185

385

380

240

360

380

240

265

250

280

420

250

322

250

250

250

285

380

249

265

210

190

210

266

170

380

365

260

350

360

260

315

250

300

430

230

327

2,635

1,392

4,027

2,090

8,360

8,008

5,684

2,324

2,975

3,000

24,433

333

2,772

2,546

864

2,196

1,026

1,104

1,882

675

532

3,528

1,550

19,008

2,125

1,375

3,500

1,767

6,650

5,605

4,240

1,365

2,850

2,205

19,077

476

2,660

2,336

832

1,680

1,116

1,196

1,827

575

450

4,128

1,380

18,656

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 13 NASS, USDA

Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal

Group, State, and United States, 2003-2004 (continued)

Seasonal

Group and

State

Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Cwt Cwt 1,000 Cwt 1,000 Cwt

Fall 2

 CA

 CO

 ID

 10 SW Co

 Other ID

 IN

 ME

 MA

 MI

 MN

 MT

 NE

 NV

 NM

 NY

 ND

 OH

 OR

 Malheur

 Other OR

 PA

 RI

 SD 3

 UT 3

 WA

 WI

 Total

US

8.4

66.3

360.0

25.0

335.0

3.8

66.0

3.0

46.0

60.0

10.7

23.5

8.3

4.0

22.2

117.0

4.5

42.8

5.8

37.0

14.5

0.6

1.0

1.0

163.0

81.0

1,107.6

1,274.5

7.7

65.0

350.0

26.0

324.0

3.4

63.5

2.6

43.0

53.0

10.7

22.0

6.7

4.0

20.0

95.0

3.7

40.0

5.3

34.7

12.0

0.5

160.0

75.0

1,037.8

1,184.3

8.4

65.7

358.0

25.0

333.0

3.7

65.5

2.8

45.5

58.0

10.6

23.2

8.0

4.0

21.7

112.0

4.3

42.6

5.8

36.8

13.5

0.5

1.0

1.0

162.0

80.0

1,092.0

1,250.0

7.7

64.8

348.0

26.0

322.0

3.2

63.0

2.5

42.0

49.0

10.6

21.5

6.7

4.0

19.7

91.0

3.6

40.0

5.3

34.7

11.0

0.5

160.0

74.0

1,022.8

1,165.6

410

360

344

465

335

250

260

275

330

385

315

425

415

400

300

245

300

493

415

505

290

300

340

335

575

410

377

367

3,444

23,652

123,180

11,625

111,555

925

17,030

770

15,015

22,330

3,339

9,860

3,320

1,600

6,510

27,440

1,290

20,991

2,407

18,584

3,915

150

340

335

93,150

32,800

411,386

458,854

 1 Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2 The forecast of fall potato production will be published in the November "Crop Production". 3 Estimates discontinued in 2004.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 14 NASS, USDA

Fall Potatoes: Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potatoes,

11 Major States, 2003-2004

State

Potato Types 1

Reds Whites Russets

2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent

CO

ID

ME

MI

MN

NY

ND

OR

PA

WA

WI

Total

5

2

4

4

28

20

2

6

10

7

5

2

4

3

23

5

17

4

4

3

11

6

12

3

56

83

11

100

39

26

100

9

38

23

13

3

55

84

10

90

39

22

96

9

32

21

83

95

40

13

61

41

72

85

52

70

82

95

41

13

67

5

44

74

88

57

73

 1 Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s) constituting less than 1 percent of State’s total. Yellow flesh

potatoes are reported under white types. Blue types are reported under red types.

Fall Potatoes: Acres Planted for Certified Seed Potatoes,

by State and Total, 2003-2004 1

State

2003 Crop 2004 Crop

Entered for

Certification Certified PercentCertified

Entered for

Certification

Acres Acres Percent Acres

AK

CA

CO

ID

ME

MI

MN

MT

NE

NY

ND

OR

PA

SD 2

WA

WI

Total

170

500

15,700

40,032

15,146

2,600

12,732

9,638

6,560

994

20,200

3,061

235

972

2,630

9,300

140,470

171

558

13,197

40,271

14,869

2,570

11,568

9,716

4,873

950

18,825

3,058

216

2,709

8,958

132,509

101

112

84

101

98

99

91

101

74

96

93

100

92

103

96

94

170

550

14,884

36,924

13,000

2,500

10,000

9,682

6,592

750

16,746

2,914

284

2,200

8,515

125,711

 1 Data supplied by State seed certification officials. 2 Acres certified not available for the 2003 crop. Estimates discontinued in 2004.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 15 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted and Harvested by State

and United States, 2003-2004 1

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

ID

MT

ND

OR

WA

US

55.0

33.0

160.0

6.5

83.0

337.5

57.0

50.0

280.0

3.0

90.0

480.0

54.0

31.0

155.0

6.5

82.0

328.5

56.0

40.0

265.0

3.0

90.0

454.0

 1 Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas.

Lentils: Area Planted and Harvested by State

and United States, 2003-2004

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

ID

MT

ND

WA

US

68.0

30.0

55.0

93.0

246.0

72.0

38.0

90.0

100.0

300.0

66.0

26.0

54.0

91.0

237.0

70.0

35.0

88.0

100.0

293.0

Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted and Harvested by State

and United States, 2003-2004

State

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

ID

MT

OR

US

10.0

9.5

1.6

21.1

14.0

10.0

1.5

25.5

8.0

7.0

0.6

15.6

11.0

5.0

0.6

16.6
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 16 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,299.0

78,736.0

4,601.0

730.0

3,022.0

1,368.0

9,420.0

61,700.0

44,945.0

2,915.0

13,840.0

1,082.0

595.0

110.0

1,344.0

1.3

221.0

73,404.0

2,344.0

13,479.6

13,301.0

178.6

1,365.4

21.1

1,406.1

337.5

246.0

1,274.5

14.6

88.6

63.7

1,107.6

95.8

4,666.0

80,968.0

4,220.0

720.0

3,346.0

1,330.0

8,099.0

59,869.0

43,450.0

2,742.0

13,677.0

946.0

629.0

68.5

1,386.0

11.8

142.0

74,809.0

1,882.0

13,947.0

13,700.0

247.0

1,340.5

25.5

1,424.2

480.0

300.0

1,184.3

14.2

73.5

58.8

1,037.8

99.1

4,688.0

71,139.0

6,528.0

63,342.0

23,578.0

39,764.0

2,224.0

620.0

2,997.0

339.0

7,798.0

343.0

52,839.0

36,541.0

2,869.0

13,429.0

1,068.0

583.0

107.0

1,312.0

1.2

212.0

72,321.0

2,197.0

12,003.4

11,826.0

177.4

1,347.9

994.4

411.2

15.6

1,346.9

328.5

237.0

5.9

0.2

28.7

78.2

1,250.0

14.3

84.7

59.0

1,092.0

15.8

92.6

0.4

4,152.0

73,362.0

61,589.0

22,226.0

39,363.0

1,938.0

3,318.0

343.0

6,916.0

50,706.0

34,825.0

2,671.0

13,210.0

919.0

608.0

65.9

1,351.0

11.4

133.0

73,655.0

1,801.0

1,310.4

971.1

16.6

1,325.2

454.0

293.0

27.9

1,165.6

14.0

71.7

57.1

1,022.8

96.3

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 17 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

58.9

142.2

16.2

2.48

3.24

2.03

65.0

18.5

6,645

27.3

52.7

10.4

44.2

46.7

33.7

39.7

1,416

17.9

723

3,159

949

1,286

33.4

1,213

730

723

1,170

22.7

34.0

1,952

1,115

1,672

1,584

1,030

1,470

37,500

1,903

89

367

282

288

322

377

113

172

63.5

62.9

40.6

42.2

33.2

37.9

250

266

327

276,087

10,113,887

105,864

157,123

76,307

80,816

144,649

11,450

199,157

9,254

411,237

3,552

2,336,526

1,707,069

96,637

532,820

1,512,250

6,664.6

10,426

77,372

4,144,150

1,139

272,555

2,417,565

2,665,226

18,255.2

17,822.9

432.3

30,583

33,857

802,654

174

22,515

5,202

2,442

673

8,700

6,000

54,565.1

6,924

458,854

4,027

24,433

19,008

411,386

1,778

15,891

5,000

263,502

121,860

2,059,071

1,469,735

88,571

500,765

3,500

19,077

18,656

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 18 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2002 2003 2004

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,424

1

801

12,374

97

420

70

8,523.9

90.0

20,000.0

7,338.9

103.0

45,900.0

2,535.0

890.0

172.0

15.7

1,090,000

19.5

172,900

303,000

282.0

1,475

2,063

1,026

11,526

106

371

59

8,613.3

97.6

22,500.0

6,572.7

118.0

42,600.0

2,519.0

928.1

181.0

16.3

1,040,000

37.7

282,100

119,000

326.0

1,260

2,148

798

12,890

45

425

63

95.6

2,612.4

70.0

1,080,000

1,507

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 19 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,144,450

31,863,670

1,861,980

295,420

1,222,970

553,620

3,812,180

24,969,370

18,188,790

1,179,670

5,600,910

437,870

240,790

44,520

543,900

530

89,440

29,705,860

948,590

5,455,060

5,382,780

72,280

552,560

8,540

569,030

136,580

99,550

515,780

5,910

35,860

25,780

448,230

38,770

1,888,280

32,766,940

1,707,790

291,380

1,354,090

538,240

3,277,580

24,228,390

17,583,780

1,109,660

5,534,950

382,840

254,550

27,720

560,900

4,780

57,470

30,274,450

761,630

5,644,210

5,544,250

99,960

542,490

10,320

576,360

194,250

121,410

479,270

5,750

29,740

23,800

419,990

40,100

1,897,190

28,789,240

2,641,820

25,633,870

9,541,780

16,092,090

900,030

250,910

1,212,860

137,190

3,155,770

138,810

21,383,410

14,787,780

1,161,060

5,434,580

432,210

235,930

43,300

530,950

490

85,790

29,267,590

889,100

4,857,660

4,785,860

71,790

545,480

402,420

166,390

6,310

545,080

132,940

95,910

2,390

60

11,600

31,650

505,860

5,790

34,280

23,880

441,920

6,390

37,470

170

1,680,270

29,688,870

24,924,450

8,994,640

15,929,810

784,290

1,342,760

138,810

2,798,840

20,520,210

14,093,330

1,080,930

5,345,950

371,910

246,050

26,670

546,740

4,610

53,820

29,807,440

728,850

530,310

392,990

6,720

536,300

183,730

118,570

11,310

471,710

5,670

29,020

23,110

413,920

38,970

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 20 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

3.17

8.92

36.35

5.56

7.25

4.56

2.33

1.03

7.45

1.71

3.31

23.21

2.97

3.14

2.27

2.67

1.59

1.12

0.81

3.54

1.06

1.44

2.25

1.36

0.82

0.81

1.31

50.86

76.32

2.19

1.25

1.87

1.77

1.15

1.65

42.03

2.13

0.10

41.14

31.56

32.33

36.11

42.23

0.13

19.23

3.41

2.26

2.73

2.84

2.23

2.55

28.02

29.82

36.62

6,011,080

256,904,560

96,038,210

142,539,590

69,224,550

73,315,040

2,099,570

259,680

9,033,610

235,060

10,445,900

3,222,320

63,589,820

46,458,800

2,630,030

14,500,980

685,950

6,046,020

264,830

35,100

1,879,750

520

123,630

65,795,340

1,208,930

3,974,600

3,880,480

94,120

27,744,430

30,714,550

364,080

7,890

1,021,260

235,960

110,770

30,530

3,950

2,720

24,750

3,140

20,813,270

182,660

1,108,260

862,190

18,660,160

810

720,800

2,270

5,737,080

1,768,790

56,038,730

39,999,630

2,410,510

13,628,590

158,760

865,320

846,220

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2004 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 21 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2002 2003 2004

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,199,020

910

726,650

11,225,500

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,866,380

81,680

9,070

6,657,740

93,440

20,820

1,149,860

807,410

156,040

14,200

494,420

17,690

78,430

137,440

255,830

7,370

1,871,520

930,770

10,456,210

96,160

336,570

53,520

3,906,930

88,520

10,210

5,962,680

107,050

19,320

1,142,600

841,910

164,200

14,790

471,740

34,200

127,960

53,980

295,740

6,300

1,948,630

723,930

11,693,610

40,820

385,550

57,150

86,680

1,184,960

63,500

489,880

7,530

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2 Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 22 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 23 NASS, USDA
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 24 NASS, USDA

June Weather Summary

The frontal boundary that helped to spark May downpours across the Midwest shifted southward in June. As

a result, cooler, favorably drier air overspread the Midwest, although below-normal temperatures and

lingering wetness across the northern Corn Belt hampered final soybean planting and summer crop emergence

and growth. Meanwhile, the South became the new focus for heavy rainfall, especially during the second half

of June. Rain eased or eliminated the effects of spring dryness in the Southeast, but left standing water in

some fields, caused lowland flooding, and increased concerns about crop quality from southern and eastern

Texas to the Delta. Rainfall also increased in coverage and intensity across the southern half of the Plains,

slowing final winter wheat harvesting but providing much-needed moisture for the High Plains’ pastures and

dryland summer crops. Farther north, however, long-term drought remained deeply entrenched from western

Nebraska into southeastern Montana, despite occasional showers. Elsewhere on the northern Plains, cool

weather slowed the development of winter wheat and spring-sown small grains. Farther west, scattered

showers boosted topsoil moisture but provided little relief from a multi-year drought across the central

Rockies and Intermountain West. Drought-reduced water supplies also remained a concern elsewhere in the

West, although a lack of extreme heat helped to limit demands on irrigation reserves.

Monthly temperatures averaged within 3 degrees F of normal at most locations in the West, ranging from

slightly below normal in the central Rockies to somewhat above normal in the Great Basin and Pacific

Northwest. East of the Rockies, unusual warmth was confined to the southern Atlantic States, where readings

averaged as much as 3 degrees F above normal. In contrast, most locations across the northern half of the

Plains and the upper Midwest reported June temperatures ranging from 3 to 6 degrees F below normal.

June Crop Summary

Below-normal temperatures prevailed across the Corn Belt and Great Plains. In the Corn Belt, moderate to

heavy precipitation through mid-month limited fieldwork and flooded some fields, but mostly dry conditions

in the final week encouraged winter wheat harvest. Rainfall totals were above normal in the central and

southern Great Plains, improving crop conditions. After moderate precipitation early in the month, the

northern Great Plains remained mostly dry. Heavy rainfall in the Delta flooded fields and severely limited

fieldwork. Abundant precipitation in the Southeast eased soil moisture shortages. Precipitation was moderate

across the middle Atlantic Coast States, but light in the Northeast. Warm, dry conditions dominated across

the Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest, though brief periods of scattered showers brought

some relief.

The Nation’s corn crop was 95 percent emerged by June 6, seven percentage points ahead of last year and

5 points ahead of normal. By month’s end, 9 percent of the crop had reached the silking stage, 5 points ahead

of last year and the 5-year average. Silking was most advanced in North Carolina and Tennessee, where

79 and 71 percent of the crop had reached this stage, respectively. In the northern Corn Belt and adjacent

areas of the Great Plains, silking had not begun.

Winter wheat heading continued to progress well, reaching 95 percent complete by mid-month, 3 points

ahead of last year and the 5-year average. By the end of the month, harvest had reached 51 percent complete,

compared with 39 percent last year and the normal pace of 41 percent. Arkansas and Oklahoma growers

neared completion, with 95 and 96 percent of their winter wheat acres harvested, respectively. In the

northern-most areas and the eastern Corn Belt, harvest had not begun. Harvest progressed rapidly during the

final week of the month further west in the Corn Belt, where Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri producers

harvested over one-third of their acreage.

By mid-month, the cotton crop was 95 percent planted, 3 points ahead of last year but the same as the 5-year

average. At that time, growers had completed planting in most States and were nearing completion in all

other States, except Texas where 89 percent of the crop was in the ground. By June 27, fifty-four percent of

the acreage was at or beyond the squaring stage, 12 points ahead of last year but equal to the normal pace. 

Squaring was most advanced in Arkansas and California, at 85 percent complete. Virginia’s crop was just

slightly less advanced at 83 percent but was 47 points ahead of the normal pace. Progress was ahead of

normal in most States, lagging behind only in Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas. 

Meanwhile, 11 percent of the acreage had set bolls, 2 points ahead of last year but 1 point behind normal.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 25 NASS, USDA

The soybean crop continued to progress ahead of the normal planting and emergence pace. By June 20,

ninety-five percent of the crop was planted, 2 points ahead of last year and 1 point ahead of the 5-year

average. Planting was complete, ahead of the normal pace, in Iowa, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, and

North Dakota. However, planting lagged well behind normal in Michigan and Wisconsin. By month’s end,

95 percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 91 percent last year and 94 percent for the average. 

Blooming had begun in most States by June 27 and was 7 percent complete, 5 points ahead of last year and

1 point ahead of normal.

Ninety-three percent of the Nation’s sorghum crop was planted by month’s end, 3 points ahead of last year

but the same as the 5-year average. Planting was complete in Louisiana and Nebraska and over 90 percent

complete in all States, except New Mexico. The most rapid progress during the month was in South Dakota,

where planting advanced 56 points between May 30 and June 27. Kansas growers, with 93 percent of their

crop planted, were 2 points behind their normal pace, while Texas producers had planted 91 percent of their

acreage and were 2 points ahead of normal. Meanwhile, heading was 17 percent complete by month’s end,

the same as last year but 1 point behind normal. Heading was most advanced in the Delta and Texas, but

progressed behind normal in Louisiana and Texas.

The rice crop was 96 percent emerged on June 6, six points ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of normal. 

Emergence was complete in Missouri and at or ahead of the normal pace in all States, except Louisiana. 

However, heading lagged behind the normal pace as cool, wet weather slowed development in the Delta and

along the Gulf Coast. By month’s end, 7 percent of the crop had headed, compared with 8 percent last year

and 9 percent for the 5-year average. California was the only State where progress was ahead of the normal

pace, while in Louisiana and Texas, the crop trailed their normal heading pace by 21 and 15 points,

respectively.

Despite rapid planting and emergence, heading of the spring wheat crop lagged behind the normal pace as

below-normal temperatures prevailed across the northern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. At month’s

end, 26 percent of the crop had headed, 14 points behind last year and 6 points behind normal. Only South

Dakota and Washington were ahead of the normal heading pace, at 83 and 89 percent complete, respectively.

Similarly, barley development slowed in June after rapid planting and emergence. By June 27,

twenty-five percent of the Nation’s barley acreage was headed, compared with 36 percent last year and

29 percent for the 5-year average. Washington’s crop advanced 35 points during the final week to finish the

month at 85 percent headed, 14 points ahead of normal, while all other States were behind normal.

At month’s end, 53 percent of the oat crop was headed, 5 points behind last year and 2 points behind normal. 

Heading had progressed ahead of the normal pace during most of the month but slowed as cool weather

prevailed in the major-producing areas during the final week. In Minnesota, heading ranged from 2 points

ahead of normal on June 6 to 21 points behind normal on June 27.

Sunflower planting remained behind the normal pace throughout the month. By June 27, ninety-five percent

of the crop was planted, 3 points behind last year and the 5-year average. Despite staying ahead of the normal

pace through most of the month, Colorado growers slipped to 3 points behind normal by month’s end. In

Kansas and the Dakotas, the planting pace was behind normal during the entire month.

The Nation’s peanut crop was 96 percent planted on June 6, two points ahead of last year and the 5-year

average. However, pegging of the crop advanced behind the normal pace. At month’s end, 26 percent of the

crop had reached the pegging stage, 4 points ahead of last year but 1 point behind normal. Although most

States were ahead of the normal pace, Alabama, Georgia, and Texas, which account for three-fourths of the

acreage, were all behind normal.

Oats: Production is forecast at 122 million bushels, 16 percent below last year’s 145 million bushels. The

forecasted yield is 62.9 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from 2003. Expected area for harvest is

1.94 million acres, down 13 percent from last year.

Crop development lagged behind normal across most of the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. By the end

of June, slightly more than one-half of the acreage was headed, 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. 

The crop was most advanced in Iowa and Nebraska, where over 90 percent of the acreage was headed.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 26 NASS, USDA

Lower yields are forecast in many Corn Belt and Great Plains States. Excessive moisture and lower than

normal temperatures in June slowed crop development and adversely affected crop conditions in many areas. 

Yields are expected to be higher in the Pacific Northwest and most Rocky Mountain States, where adequate

moisture and near average temperatures have provided favorable growing conditions.

Barley: Production for 2004 is forecast at 264 million bushels, 5 percent below 2003. Based on conditions

as of July 1, the average yield is forecast at 63.5 bushels per acre, up 4.6 bushels from last year. Area for

harvest, at 4.15 million acres, is down 11 percent from 2003.

The largest production declines compared to last year are expected in Minnesota and North Dakota as a result

of fewer harvested acres and lower yields. Minnesota and North Dakota yields are down 17 and 3 bushels per

acre from last year, respectively. However, yield is expected to increase in most of the Pacific Northwest and

Rocky Mountain States, where weather conditions have been mostly favorable. Washington’s forecasted

yield of 65 bushels per acre is 18 bushels higher than 2003, while Idaho’s forecast, at 78 bushels per acre, is

up 12 bushels.

Warm, dry conditions early in the season allowed planting to progress well ahead of the normal pace in most

States and pushed emergence ahead of normal. However, below-normal temperatures from mid-May through

June slowed crop development. As of June 27, the Nation’s barley crop was 25 percent headed, 4 percentage

points behind normal. Seventy-one percent of the crop was rated in good to excellent condition, compared

with 79 percent last year.

Winter Wheat: Acres harvested for grain are forecast at 34.8 million, down 5 percent from 2003. Harvest

progress, in the 18 major producing States, was 51 percent complete by June 27. This was 12 percentage

points ahead of last year and 10 points ahead of the 5-year average.

Yield decreases from last month are forecast in many of the major Hard Red Winter producing States. Wet

weather in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas temporarily slowed harvest progress. Dry weather in Colorado

allowed the crop to develop at a close to average pace, while cool, wet conditions in Montana have hindered

crop development.

Yield prospects are mixed this month across the Soft Red Winter States. Yields in the Delta, Southeast, and

Atlantic Coast States are above last month’s forecast. In the Corn Belt, however, yields are steady to lower

than previous projections. Harvest is well underway in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

White Wheat yield forecasts are equal to or higher than those of a month ago. Timely rains have increased

yield expectations for the non-irrigated crop in Idaho. Topsoil moisture conditions in Washington remained

mostly adequate throughout the month of June.

Durum Wheat: Area for 2004 grain harvest is expected to total 2.67 million acres, down 7 percent from last

year. Harvest is nearly complete in California. Top Durum producing counties in Montana have received

above normal amounts of precipitation this growing season. Crop development is running slightly behind

last year’s pace. In North Dakota, as of June 27, only 48 percent of the crop was rated in good to excellent

condition, well below last year’s ratings. Crop development is also behind normal in North Dakota, where

only 44 percent of the crop was jointed or beyond.

Other Spring Wheat: Harvested grain area is forecast at 13.2 million acres, down 2 percent from last year. 

Below normal temperatures have hampered crop development in the northern Great Plains. As of June 27,

only 17 percent of the North Dakota crop was headed or beyond, well behind both last year and the 5-year

average. In Minnesota and Montana, only 23 and 9 percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage,

respectively. Weather conditions in the Pacific Northwest have been favorable for spring seeded wheat and

yield forecasts are up dramatically from last year.

Lentils: Planted acreage of lentils in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and Washington is estimated at

300,000 acres, up 22 percent from last year and 33 percent above 2002. Harvested acreage is forecast at

293,000, up 24 percent from last year. Washington growers planted 100,000 acres of lentils, up 8 percent

from 2003 and 25 percent above two years ago. This is the highest planted acreage level since 1994. 

Planting in eastern Washington was completed by mid-May, two weeks ahead of last year. Producers have
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 27 NASS, USDA

experienced a warm and dry growing season. Precipitation to date is 91 percent of normal in the northern

production region and 81 percent of normal in the southern production region. Rainfall in late May was well

received. Growers plan to harvest all 100,000 acres, up 10 percent from a year ago. Growers in Idaho

planted 72,000 acres of lentils, 6 percent above both the 2003 and 2002 seasons. Idaho’s lentil crop continues

to develop under generally favorable conditions. Stands are mostly full with many reaching the bloom stage. 

Very few problems have been reported. Idaho growers plan to harvest 70,000 acres, up 6 percent from 2003. 

Planted acreage in North Dakota is estimated at 90,000 acres, up 64 percent from last year and 70 percent

above 2002. This is a record high planted acreage for North Dakota. The majority of the lentil crop in the

Northwest region of the State was planted before the excessive snow and rainfall in mid-May. Some farmers

were able to finish planting lentils once weather conditions improved. Minimal abandonment was reported

with most of the crop in good to excellent condition. North Dakota growers are expected to harvest

88,000 acres, up 63 percent from a year ago. Montana growers planted 38,000 acres this year, up 27 percent

from 2003 and 52 percent above two years ago. Montana experienced 80 degree temperatures in April

through mid-May with very limited moisture. From mid-May cooler temperatures and precipitation were

received throughout the State. Area harvested is forecast at 35,000 acres, up 35 percent from 2003.

Dry Edible Peas: Planted acreage of dry edible peas for 2004 is estimated at 480,000 acres, up 42 percent

from last year and 55 percent above 2002. Harvested area is forecast at 454,000 acres, up 38 percent from

last year. Area planted in North Dakota, at 280,000 acres, is 75 percent above a year ago. This is a record

high for the State. North Dakota growers are expected to harvest 265,000 acres, up 71 percent from last

season. The dry edible pea crop in the Northwest region of the State was planted before excessive snow and

rainfall in mid-May. However, there was minimal abandonment in the Northwest region. Intended dry pea

acres not seeded before the snowfall were not planted because it was too late in the season. The majority of

the crop is reported to be in good to excellent condition. Idaho dry edible pea growers planted 57,000 acres in

2004, up 4 percent from last year. Idaho growers plan to harvest 56,000 acres, up 4 percent from the previous

season. The dry pea crop continues to develop under generally favorable conditions. Stands are mostly full

with many reaching the bloom stage. Oregon growers devoted 3,000 acres to dry edible peas, a decrease of

54 percent from the previous year.

Washington farmers planted dry edible peas on 90,000 acres, up 8 percent from 2003 and their largest acreage

since 1999. Dry pea planting was completed in the eastern part of the State by mid-May, two weeks ahead of

last year. Washington’s dry pea crop has experienced a warm and dry growing season. Season precipitation

to date is 91 percent of normal in the northern production region and 81 percent of normal in the southern

production region. Rainfall in late May was well received. Growers plan to harvest all 90,000 acres, up

10 percent from last year. Montana dry edible pea growers planted 50,000 acres, up 52 percent from a year

ago and 56 percent above 2002. Montana experienced 80 degree temperatures in April through mid-May

with very limited moisture. From mid-May cooler temperatures and rain have been received throughout the

State.

Austrian Winter Peas: Planted area of Austrian winter peas in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon is estimated at

25,500 acres, up 21 percent from 2003 and 10 percent above the 2002 season. Harvested area is forecast at

16,600 acres, up 6 percent from last year and 28 percent above two years ago. Montana growers planted

10,000 acres, up 5 percent from 2003. They plan to harvest 5,000 acres, down 29 percent from last season. 

More acreage is expected to be grazed this year than last. Planted area in Idaho totaled 14,000 acres, up

40 percent from 2003. Harvested area is forecast at 11,000 acres, up 38 percent from the 2003 season. 

Idaho’s pea crop continues to develop under generally favorable conditions. Stands are mostly full with many

reaching the bloom stage. Austrian winter pea planted acreage in Oregon is estimated at 1,500, down

6 percent from a year ago. Harvested area is forecast at 600 acres, unchanged from the previous year.

Tobacco: U.S. all flue-cured production is forecast at 518 million pounds, up 14 percent from the 2003 crop

and 1 percent above 2002. Yield per acre for flue-cured is forecast at 2,244 pounds, up 287 pounds from

2003 and 150 pounds above the 2002 yield. Forecasted yields for all flue-cured tobacco in Florida, North

Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia increased from last year, while yields are expected to decline in

Georgia. 

North Carolina’s flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 346 million pounds, up 18 percent from the

2003 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,263 pounds, up 361 pounds from 2003. Most growers in North

Carolina had no difficulty getting their crop in the ground. However, most areas needed additional rainfall
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 28 NASS, USDA

after planting. Conditions varied even within counties, depending upon localized rainfall. As of June 27, the

crop was rated 78 percent good to excellent.

Flue-cured tobacco production in South Carolina is forecast at 59.4 million pounds, down 6 percent from the

2003 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,200 pounds, up 100 pounds from last year. Growth and

development of the crop were nearly on schedule with topping slightly ahead of its normal rate. 

Flue-cured tobacco production in Virginia is forecast at 52.9 million pounds, up 74 percent from the

2003 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,300 pounds, up 610 pounds from last year. Transplanting

conditions were very good for flue-cured tobacco producers, progressing ahead of schedule despite some

localized rain delays. Timely rains and above-normal temperatures allowed the crop to progress up to three

weeks ahead of schedule. Topping is in full swing, also ahead of schedule. Harvest should begin in early

July.

Georgia’s flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 49.2 million pounds, down 17 percent from the

2003 crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,050 pounds, down 150 pounds from last season. Some areas

received too much rain, slowing crop growth and development, limiting fieldwork, and disrupting spraying

programs. Other areas reported a crop equal to or better than last year’s crop.

Florida’s flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 10.6 million pounds, down 4 percent from last year’s

crop. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,650 pounds, up 150 pounds from the 2003 crop. Harvest began by late

June. Wet conditions reduced the effectiveness of pesticides in some areas.

All Potatoes: Potato growers across the United States have planted an estimated 1.18 million acres of

potatoes in all four seasons this year, down 7 percent from last year. Area for harvest, forecasted at

1.17 million acres, is also down 7 percent from a year ago. Fall potato planted acreage is down 6 percent

from the 2003 crop year. 

The summer potato production forecast is down 2 percent from last season. Winter and spring production

forecasts, which are being carried forward, are down 13 percent and 22 percent, respectively, from last year.

Fall Potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes for 2004 is estimated at 1.04 million acres, down 6 percent from

last year and 8 percent below 2002. Harvested acres are forecast at 1.02 million, down 6 percent from 2003

and 7 percent below two years ago. This reduction is due in part to low prices and changes in dietary trends.

Western States potato acreage is estimated at 644,100 acres planted this year, down 3 percent from last year

and 7 percent below 2002. Weather conditions in the Western States have been generally favorable for

potatoes. Idaho growers dropped their acreage 3 percent and Washington producers pulled back 2 percent

from a year ago. Colorado growers voluntarily reduced acreage 2 percent this year due to expected shortages

in irrigation water supplies. Planted acres in Oregon were dropped 7 percent. This reduction is due in part to

the impending closure of a processing plant in the Columbia Basin. Also, lower demand for fresh market

potatoes has contributed to reduced plantings in the Klamath Basin. California’s fall potato acres are down

8 percent and Nevada’s acres decreased 19 percent. Planted acres for Montana and New Mexico are

unchanged from 2003.

Central States planted an estimated 295,100 acres of fall potatoes this year, down 12 percent from last year

and 13 percent below two years ago. Reduced chipstock contract volumes, due to surpluses in the 2003 crop,

have contributed to the reduced acres in the Central States. North Dakota’s planted acreage decreased

19 percent and is the lowest planted acres since 1955. Planted acres dropped 18 percent in Ohio, 12 percent

in Minnesota, and 11 percent in Indiana from a year ago. Michigan and Wisconsin both decreased 7 percent

and Nebraska dropped 6 percent. Wet spring weather slowed planting and early development in most of the

Central States. In Minnesota some fields were not planted in the Red River Valley due to wet conditions. 

Growers in Eastern States have planted an estimated 98,600 acres of fall potatoes this year, down 7 percent

from last year and 5 percent below the 2002 acreage. Maine’s planted area is estimated at 63,500 acres, down

4 percent from last year. Planted potato acreage in New York is down 10 percent and Pennsylvania is down

17 percent. Massachusetts and Rhode Island dropped 13 and 17 percent, respectively. Cool wet spring

weather delayed planting and has slowed crop progress but crop quality is expected to be good.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 29 NASS, USDA

Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 18.7 million cwt, a 2 percent decrease from

a year ago. Harvest is expected from 57,100 acres, down 3 percent from last year, with an average yield of

327 cwt per acre, up 5 cwt from 2003. Eight of the 12 summer potato States expect smaller crops than they

had last year but the potato crops in four States are larger. 

Production in Illinois is expected to be down 23 percent from last year, followed by New Jersey and New

Mexico, with a decrease of 15 percent each. Virginia’s summer potato crop forecast is down 11 percent,

while Colorado expects an 8 percent drop from 2003. California and Delaware are each looking for

production decreases of 4 percent. Expectations in Missouri are down 3 percent despite an increase in yield

of 50 cwt per acre to 315 cwt. If realized, this would be the second highest yield on record. However,

harvested acres are down 18 percent, more than offsetting the yield increase. A larger potato crop is expected 

in Alabama, with a 43 percent increase. Kansas and Maryland growers anticipate 9 percent and 8 percent

increases, respectively.

Planting and crop development in most summer potato States progressed normally due to favorable weather

conditions. Harvest is underway in most areas. Texas growers anticipate a high quality crop with good

yields. Planting of California’s Central Valley summer potato crop proceeded normally with the crop in good

condition. Colorado summer potatoes continue to develop on schedule and are in mostly good to excellent

condition. No water shortages are expected for the remainder of the growing season. Missouri farmers are

making normal progress with harvesting in the southeastern counties, while harvest in the northwest is a few

weeks away. Virginia’s potato crop got off to a good start, with ideal growing conditions. Rainfall has been

timely.

Peaches: The July 2004 forecast of U.S. peach production is 2.61 billion pounds, up 4 percent from

2003 and 3 percent above two years ago. Fourteen States forecast increases in production from last year,

while 11 States expect declines and 4 States remain unchanged.

The California Clingstone crop is forecast at 1.15 billion pounds, unchanged from the June 1 forecast but

7 percent above 2003. California experienced an adequate number of chilling hours benefitting the

Clingstone crop. Overall, bloom is reported to be good on all varieties. Picking began in the Kingsburg area

on June 9, ten days earlier than last year’s starting date. Harvest gained momentum throughout June in

Stanislaus, Yuba, and Sutter counties with Ceres Carson and Loadel the major varieties picked. Quality is

reported to be very good.

The California Freestone crop is forecast at 780 million pounds, down 2 percent from the June 1 forecast and

6 percent below 2003. The Freestone bloom was late but, with a warm dry spring, the crop matured rapidly. 

Some middle to late season varieties had problems with incomplete pollination causing the fruit to stop

growing too soon. Harvest was approximately 40 percent complete by July 1. Flavor is reported to be

excellent.

The South Carolina peach crop is forecast at 140 million pounds, unchanged from the June 1 forecast but up

40 percent from last year. Weather conditions have been favorable for fruit development. Moisture was short

in the spring but adequate for bloom. Precipitation was well above normal for the month of June, slowing

harvest. North Carolina’s peach crop, forecast at 9.00 million pounds, is up 50 percent from last year but

10 percent below two years ago. Growing conditions have been more favorable than last year’s conditions

when spring frost damage reduced the crop.

Georgia’s peach crop is forecast at 110 million pounds, up 10 percent from the June 1 forecast but unchanged

from 2003. Rainfall during June was beneficial in helping improve fruit size. Rainfall totals during the past

30 days ranged mostly from 4 to 6 inches in the major production areas. Soil moisture on June 27, was

65 percent adequate and 28 percent surplus. Rain, along with cloudy and humid conditions, hindered

spraying schedules which caused concern about diseases. Harvest progressed slowly during June due to wet

conditions. By the end of June, 40 percent of the expected production had been harvested, a few days behind

last year’s harvest.

In New Jersey, production is forecast at 70.0 million pounds, unchanged from 2003 but 13 percent above

2002. Crop conditions are rated good to excellent. Fruit development is a week ahead of schedule. 

Production in Pennsylvania is forecast at 54.0 million pounds, down 26 percent from last year and 10 percent
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 30 NASS, USDA

below 2002. Pennsylvania peach producers anticipate harvesting a high quality peach crop. Most growers

report having to thin due to a very heavy fruit set. Weather conditions were ideal for pollination. Ample rain

since pollination has helped fruit size. Production in New York is forecast at 11.0 million pounds, down

15 percent from 2003 but 10 percent above two years ago. Many growers in the Lake Ontario region reported

damage due to cold temperatures in late December and early January. A hard freeze Statewide on January 16

caused tree damage, therefore, decreasing fruit potential. In the spring, hail storms were reported across the

Hudson Valley Fruit Region. Production in Connecticut is forecast at 1.30 million pounds, a 13 percent

decrease from last year. Cold winter temperatures in January damaged peach trees in some areas. Average

date of full bloom was April 30, two days earlier than last year’s May 2 date. Production in Massachusetts is

forecast at 1.80 million pounds, down 40 percent from 2003. Cold winter conditions and low temperatures

stressed trees and caused a light bloom in many areas. Many producers reported zero production for 2004. 

Average date of full bloom in the State was May 2, three days earlier than last year’s May 5 date. Michigan’s

peach crop is forecast at 43.0 million pounds, down 9 percent from 2003 but three times the size of the

weather devastated 2002 crop. Warm temperatures during early spring put development 7 to 9 days ahead of

schedule. Rainfall helped soil moisture and kept insect populations to a minimum. Strong winds and isolated

hail storms damaged some orchards; however, the impact was sporadic. Frost damage was reported in the

southeast, heavily reducing some grower’s crops. Peach production in Indiana and Ohio is down 29 percent

and 35 percent, respectively, from last year. Production is up 10 percent in Missouri. Peach production in

Kentucky is forecast at 1.60 million pounds, down 11 percent from last year. Illinois’ production, at

22.0 million pounds, is up 7 percent from 2003.

Production in West Virginia is down 4 percent from 2003, however, production is up 4 percent in Maryland. 

Both Alabama and Texas more than tripled their production from the previous season. Production is up in

Arkansas and Oklahoma. Tennessee and Virginia remain unchanged from last year.

The Washington peach crop is forecast at 40.0 million pounds, up 3 percent from last year but down

13 percent from 2002. Mild spring conditions were favorable, but some growers report reduced output due to

winter freeze damage to trees. Production is also up from 2003 in Oregon, Idaho, and Utah. In Colorado,

production is forecast at 22.0 million pounds, up 5 percent from the 2003 crop. Water availability and

weather conditions have been favorable for the peach crop this season.

California Grapes: California’s all grape production is forecast at 5.70 million tons, down 2 percent from

last year. Wine type grapes account for 51 percent of California’s total production and raisin types account

for 36 percent, while the remaining 13 percent are table type grapes.

Wine type grape production is forecast at 2.90 million tons, down less than 1 percent from the 2003 crop. 

Warm spring temperatures aided early crop development. However, reduced bunch counts are limiting the

production outlook.

California’s raisin type grape production is forecast at 2.05 million tons, down 5 percent from last year. 

Spring temperatures were generally favorable for crop development. However, bunch counts are reported to

be lower when compared to last year. Thompson Seedless harvest for fresh use was active through early July

in the Coachella Valley. 

Table type grape production is expected to be 750,000 tons, up 2 percent from last year. Picking was active

through early July in the Coachella Valley, with Perlette, Flame Seedless, and Black Beauty Seedless the

primary varieties harvested.

Apricots: The final forecast for the 2004 apricot crop is 95,550 tons, down 2 percent from last season’s

production but 6 percent above 2002. California’s 2004 apricot production is forecast at 90,000 tons, equal to

the June forecast but 3 percent below last year’s production. California’s production represents 94 percent of

the 2004 U.S. apricot crop. Weather during bloom was excellent with warm temperatures throughout the

apricot producing areas of the State. Cool temperatures during harvest contributed to good fruit size. Harvest

will be finished by mid-July. Washington’s production, at 5,200 tons, is up 6 percent from both last year and

2002. Mild spring weather was favorable to the State’s apricot crop. The 2004 Utah crop, at 350 tons, is up

94 percent from 2003 and more than double the production from 2002. Favorable growing conditions in

northern Utah contributed to the upturn in this year’s production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 31 NASS, USDA

Almonds: The 2004 California almond crop is forecast at 1.08 billion pounds, shelled basis, down 2 percent

from the previous forecast but up 4 percent from the 2003 crop. The current forecast is based on the objective

measurement survey conducted in California almond orchards. The almond bloom started in mid-February

accompanied by heavy rain and wind. However, the bloom was very intense and both the variety and

pollinators bloomed together which may have contributed to the good set. The bloom was strong and stayed

on the trees for much longer than normal. Very warm weather the first three weeks of March advanced crop

development and the crop is currently at least two weeks ahead of normal. Kernel size appears to be normal. 

Overall, the crop appears to be fairly uniform throughout the State and the growers have indicated they expect

to have a good crop.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.75 million pounds for June, up 13 percent from

last month but 9 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,000 acres, down 5 percent from last

month and 8 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,055 acres, 9 percent less than last month

and 33 percent below June 2003. Weather conditions over the major producing areas were favorable during

June with mostly sunny skies and periods of light trade wind showers providing good growing conditions.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2003-04 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.15 million tons, up 1 percent from the

previous forecast and 4 percent above last season. Florida’s grapefruit forecast, at 40.8 million boxes

(1.73 million tons), is unchanged from the previous month but 5 percent above last season’s final utilization. 

The white grapefruit forecast, at 15.9 million boxes (676,000 tons), is unchanged from last month but

2 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 24.9 million boxes (1.06 million tons), is

unchanged from last month but 11 percent above last season’s final utilization. Florida’s grapefruit harvest

was complete near July 1 as most of the fresh fruit packinghouses were closing. 

The California grapefruit forecast, at 5.40 million boxes (181,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous

forecast but 4 percent less than the previous season's final utilization. Marsh Ruby grapefruit harvest

continues in the desert area, while Star Ruby variety grapefruit was harvested in the southern coastal counties.

Overall fruit quality and color are good. The July 1 grapefruit forecast for Texas is 5.70 million boxes

(228,000 tons), up 6 percent from the April 1 forecast and 1 percent above last season. Arizona's July 1

forecast, at 140,000 boxes (5,000 tons), is up 40 percent from the previous forecast and 8 percent above last

season's utilized production.

Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 425,000 tons, up 1 percent from the June 1

forecast and 15 percent above last season’s final utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop, at

6.50 million boxes (309,000 tons), is unchanged from last month but 18 percent above last season’s

utilization. Harvest of all tangerine varieties is complete. Arizona's tangerine forecast is 690,000 boxes

(26,000 tons), up 15 percent from the previous forecast and 60 percent above last season. California's

forecast, at 2.40 million boxes (90,000 tons), is unchanged from the April 1 forecast but 4 percent below last

season.

Lemons: The 2003-04 U.S. lemon crop is 798,000 tons, down 19 percent from the previous forecast and

22 percent below last season’s final utilization. California production is forecast at 18.0 million boxes

(684,000 tons), down 22 percent from the previous forecast and 25 percent below the 2002-03 season. A heat

wave in April lowered earlier production expectations. Harvest continues in the South Coastal area. Prices

are higher in response to strong demand for all sizes. Arizona’s 2003-04 lemon forecast, at 3.00 million

boxes (114,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast and season.

Temples: Florida's Temple utilization is final at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season,

unchanged from last month but 8 percent above last season.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2003-04 tangelo production forecast is final at 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons),

unchanged from June but 57 percent less than last season’s utilized production.

Florida Citrus: Rainfall during June was variable with some areas receiving adequate amounts but others

receiving very little. The rains were spread throughout the month with the lower west coast and interior areas

receiving most of the precipitation, while the lower interior areas received varying amounts. Many growers

and caretakers continue to use irrigation to supplement surface moisture. Temperatures reached into the 90's

followed by afternoon storms on many days. Most of the trees in well cared for groves are in good condition. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 32 NASS, USDA

The summer flush of new growth has appeared on younger trees and in some older groves. New crop fruit is

progressing well with good sizes reported. Harvest of Valencia oranges declined through most of June with

all but two processing plants closed by the end of the month. Grapefruit harvest was finished by July 1 as

most of the fresh fruit packinghouses were closing. Honey Tangerine harvest was over for the year by the

beginning of June. Caretakers were active during June mowing, chopping, and disking cover crops that grew

vigorously because of the rains. Hedging and topping slowed during the month. Summer fertilizer treatments

are currently being applied. Dead trees are being pushed out and burned. New resets are being planted in

larger groves with permanent irrigation. Summer herbicides are being applied to control weed growth. 

Growers are cutting vines out of their trees.

Texas Citrus: Abundant water supply in the Rio Grande Valley led to good fruit size for both oranges and

grapefruit. Some problems were reported with Rust Mite and Blackfly.

California Citrus: Citrus groves were irrigated due to the dry weather and warm conditions. Fertilization

and weed control treatments continued. The Navel orange season was nearly complete by early June. Picking

of Valencia oranges was slow with puff affecting packouts of the larger fruit. Star Ruby grapefruit harvesting

was winding down. Lemon harvesting continued in the southern coastal areas.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers conducted summer cultural activities that included

weed control, fungicide application, cultivation, and irrigation in orchards. Thinning of late season stone fruit

varieties continued, as well as summer pruning in a number of harvested orchards. Picking of many fruit

crops was active throughout the month. Rich Lady, Brittney Lane, and Country Sweet peaches, Black Amber

and Santa Rosa plums, Zee Grand and Honey Blaze nectarines, and Flavorosa pluots were picked and packed. 

Picking of Clingstone peaches began in the Kingsburg area on June 9, ten days earlier than last year's starting

date. Apricot harvesting was complete in Fresno and Tulare counties by the end of June but was still

underway in other locations. Sweet cherry harvest was complete in most areas by the second week of June. 

Fruit development advanced steadily in wine, raisin, and table grape vineyards. Irrigation, cultivation, foliar

feeding, cane cutting, and some fungicide treatments were the cultural operations underway in vineyards. 

Table grapes were harvested in the Coachella Valley. Flame Seedless, Perlette, Black Beauty Seedless, and

Thompson Seedless were the primary varieties harvested for the fresh market. Excellent fruit color and good

maturity were noted. Fruit were maturing steadily in apple, persimmon, and pomegranate orchards. Thinning

of persimmons and pomegranates continued. The Central Valley’s strawberry harvest was mostly complete

by month’s end but a few late season fields continued to produce fruit. Strawberries were harvested in the

central coast region. Blackberry, raspberry, blueberry, and boysenberry harvest was ongoing. Olive growers

treated their orchards to control the olive fruit fly. Irrigation, cultivation, and weed and pest control

treatments were ongoing in many nut orchards. Walnut, pistachio, and almond trees were heavy with nuts. 

Early codling moth controls were applied in walnut orchards. Nut development continued at a steady pace.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 33 NASS, USDA

Reliability of July 1 Crop Production Forecast

Wheat Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between June 26 and

July 6 to gather information on expected yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in

10 States that accounted for 74 percent of the 2003 winter wheat production. Farm operators were

interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample

plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's

maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to

predict the number of heads that would be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous

years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. 

The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. 

After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year

harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal

interviewers. Approximately 9,500 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions

about the probable yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the

growing season to provide indications of average yields.

Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the July 1 forecast was conducted in

Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August 2003, the number of

bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement

and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California,

and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. 

California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for

Valencia oranges.

Wheat Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were

reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed

considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State

Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). 

The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecasts.

Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for

errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in

Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses

of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the

State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made

each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the

end of the wheat marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports,

millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other

administrative data warrant changes. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September’s Citrus

Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing

season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are

made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean

Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the

July 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The

average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the

average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning

expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors

affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means

that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current winter wheat production will not be above or below the final
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 34 NASS, USDA

estimate by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference

will not exceed 3.1 percent. Differences between the July 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final

estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 23 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 65 million

bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. This does not

imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 orange production forecast is 1.1 percent. This means that

chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate

by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not

exceed 2.0 percent. Differences between the July 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past

20 years have averaged 94,000 tons, ranging from 1,000 tons to 370,000 tons. The July 1 forecast for oranges

has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. The difference does not imply that the July 1

forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

July 2004 35 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234

Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Jim Smith - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-2127

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202 )720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
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