Cr Pr 2-2 (2-03)

Washington, D.C.

Crop

Production

Released February 11, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of

Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

All Orange Production Up 1 Percent from January

The U.S. all orange February 1 forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.3 million tons, up 1 percent from the

January 1 forecast but 10 percent below last season’s final utilization. Florida’s all orange forecast is

increased to 199 million boxes (8.96 million tons), 1 percent above the January 1 forecast but 13 percent

below the previous season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 113 million boxes

(5.09 million tons), unchanged from last month but 12 percent below last season. Harvest is over 80 percent

complete. Florida’s Valencia forecast is 86.0 million boxes (3.87 million tons), up 2 percent from the

previous forecast but 16 percent below the previous season. Despite the cold weather, fruit size

measurements indicate that the fruit continues to grow and are the largest in the fruit measurement series

dating back to 1960. The larger fruit size more than offset above average droppage resulting in an increased

amount of fruit available for harvest. Temperatures in January were generally colder than normal in the citrus

production areas, but the below freezing temperatures experienced in late January did not adversely affect the

2002-03 citrus crop. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the

January forecasts.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2002-03 season is forecast at 1.57 gallons

per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is unchanged from last month’s projection. The early and midseason

portion is projected at 1.50 gallons per box, down from 1.52 in January. The Valencia portion remains

unchanged at 1.67 gallons. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be

similar to those of the past several years.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on February 11, 2003.

Acting Secretary of

Agriculture

Rodney J. Brown

Agricultural Statistics Board

Chairperson

Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Citrus ................................................................................ 5

Crop Comments ....................................................................... 13

Crop Summary ......................................................................... 6

Information Contacts ................................................................... 16

Papayas ............................................................................... 4

Reliability ............................................................................ 15

Sugarcane ............................................................................. 4

Weather Summary ..................................................................... 12
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 4 NASS, USDA

Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production

by Use, State, and United States, 2001-2002

Use

and

State

Area Harvested Yield 1 Production 1

2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Tons Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

For Sugar

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

For Sugar

 and Seed

 FL

 HI 2

 LA 2

 TX 2

 US

445.0

19.3

460.0

46.0

970.3

20.0

1.5

35.0

1.0

57.5

465.0

20.8

495.0

47.0

1,027.8

442.0

23.6

465.0

43.8

974.4

19.0

1.5

30.0

1.2

51.7

461.0

25.1

495.0

45.0

1,026.1

35.1

97.3

29.0

42.1

33.8

35.9

36.2

29.0

25.0

31.5

35.1

92.9

29.0

41.7

33.7

38.2

94.3

29.0

37.7

35.1

38.0

39.1

29.0

30.0

32.6

38.2

91.0

29.0

37.5

35.0

15,620

1,878

13,340

1,937

32,775

718

54

1,015

25

1,812

16,338

1,932

14,355

1,962

34,587

16,884

2,225

13,485

1,651

34,245

722

59

870

36

1,687

17,606

2,284

14,355

1,687

35,932

 1 Net tons. 2 Estimates are carried forward from the 2002 Crop Production Summary.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003

Month

Area Fresh Production 1

Total in Crop Harvested

2002 2003

2002 2003 2002 2003

Acres Acres Acres Acres 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds

Dec

Jan

2,075

2,575 2,080

1,495

1,830 1,505

3,685

3,345 3,865

 1 Utilized fresh production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 5 NASS, USDA

Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States,

2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted February 1, 2003 1

Crop and State

Utilized Production

Boxes

Utilized Production

Ton Equivalent

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Boxes 2 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons 1,000 Tons

Oranges

 Early Mid &

 Navel 3

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 Valencia

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Temples

 FL

Grapefruit

 White Seedless 5

 FL

 Colored Seedless

 FL

 All

 AZ 4

 CA 4

 FL

 TX 4

 US

Tangerines

 AZ 4 6

 CA 4 6

 FL 7

 US

Lemons 4

 AZ

 CA

 US

Tangelos

 FL

K-Early Citrus 8

 FL

480

35,500

128,000

2,000

165,980

420

19,000

95,300

235

114,955

900

54,500

223,300

2,235

280,935

1,250

18,700

27,300

250

6,300

46,000

7,200

59,750

650

2,200

5,600

8,450

3,600

22,600

26,200

2,100

40

270

34,000

128,000

1,530

163,800

250

22,000

102,000

210

124,460

520

56,000

230,000

1,740

288,260

1,550

18,900

27,800

160

6,000

46,700

5,900

58,760

620

2,200

6,600

9,420

2,800

19,000

21,800

2,150

30

200

40,000

113,000

1,500

154,700

250

21,000

86,000

180

107,430

450

61,000

199,000

1,680

262,130

1,400

16,000

24,000

100

5,600

40,000

5,600

51,300

450

2,500

5,000

7,950

2,800

23,000

25,800

2,400

18

1,331

5,760

85

7,194

16

713

4,288

10

5,027

34

2,044

10,048

95

12,221

56

795

1,160

8

211

1,955

288

2,462

24

83

266

373

137

859

996

95

2

10

1,275

5,760

65

7,110

9

825

4,590

9

5,433

19

2,100

10,350

74

12,543

70

803

1,182

5

201

1,985

236

2,427

23

83

314

420

106

722

828

97

1

8

1,500

5,085

64

6,657

9

788

3,870

8

4,675

17

2,288

8,955

72

11,332

63

680

1,020

3

188

1,700

224

2,115

17

94

238

349

106

874

980

108

 1 The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2 Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early

Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small

quantities of tangerines in TX. 4 Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5 Includes seedy. 6 Includes tangelos and tangors. 7 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst,

and Honey varieties only. 8 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 6 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

5,073.0

79,054.0

5,005.0

450.0

3,240.0

1,395.0

9,580.0

60,358.0

41,735.0

2,909.0

15,714.0

1,459.0

785.0

191.0

1,358.0

3.4

219.0

73,758.0

2,585.0

13,962.6

13,719.0

243.6

1,427.9

21.5

1,922.1

302.7

221.0

1,310.8

15.8

87.8

63.0

1,144.2

97.2

44,246.0

15.6

4,135.0

69,313.0

7,490.0

64,497.0

23,135.0

41,362.0

2,098.0

220.0

3,207.0

286.0

7,299.0

352.0

45,817.0

29,651.0

2,703.0

13,463.0

1,275.0

704.0

175.0

1,296.7

3.1

196.0

72,160.0

2,205.0

12,413.3

12,171.0

242.3

1,361.0

1,026.1

430.3

11.6

1,726.9

279.7

209.0

6.2

0.3

29.3

80.2

1,276.5

15.7

86.1

59.9

1,114.8

18.0

83.3

0.4

15.5

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 7 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice 2

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland 2

 Amer-Pima 2

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas 2

 Dry Edible Beans 2

 Dry Edible Peas 2

 Lentils 2

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

Bu

"

Ton

"

"

"

Bu

"

Cwt

Bu

"

Ton

Bu

"

"

"

Lb

Ton

Bu

Lb

"

"

"

Bu

Lb

Bale

"

"

Ton

"

Lb

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

"

"

"

Cwt

"

"

"

"

Lb

Cwt

Lb

54.9

130.0

14.0

2.34

3.19

1.86

56.8

12.5

6,578

24.4

50.7

9.5

35.3

38.5

29.4

29.3

1,218

17.9

705

2,561

1,461

1,520

37.8

1,133

663

651

1,286

20.2

35.0

2,068

1,414

1,736

1,517

1,200

1,370

45,000

1,990

85

363

268

271

309

374

108

150

268

226,873

9,007,659

104,979

150,962

73,824

77,138

119,132

2,755

210,960

6,985

369,758

3,360

1,616,441

1,142,802

79,450

394,189

1,552,520

6,419.3

12,569

123,450

3,320,490

4,530

297,980

2,729,709

2,497,236

17,145.0

16,496.0

649.0

27,550

35,932

889,632

164

29,974

4,242

2,508

457

8,500

14,400

58,336.6

6,818

463,214

4,206

23,294

18,486

417,228

1,942

12,498

6,100

4,153

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 8 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Domestic Units) 1

Crop Unit

Production

2001 2002 2003

1,000 1,000 1,000

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

Ton

"

"

"

"

"

"

1,000 Lbs

Ton

Lb

Ton

"

Lbs

1,000 Lbs

Ton

"

"

Lb

Ton

Lb

"

Ton

Gal

2,462

2

996

12,221

95

373

56

9,428.7

82.5

28,000.0

6,569.6

134.0

55,000.0

2,433.3

1,001.8

150.0

21.2

830,000

49.5

338,500

161,000

305.0

1,049

2,427

1

828

12,543

97

420

70

8,592.1

90.1

19,000.0

7,144.0

99.0

45,500.0

2,575.4

911.5

158.0

15.9

1,060,000

18.0

178,400

300,000

282.0

1,356

2,115

980

11,332

108

349

63

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 9 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Area Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2002 2003

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain 2

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 3

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain 2

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 3

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 3

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 3

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 4

2,052,990

31,992,360

2,025,470

182,110

1,311,200

564,540

3,876,930

24,426,280

16,889,740

1,177,240

6,359,300

590,440

317,680

77,300

549,570

1,380

88,630

29,849,130

1,046,120

5,650,520

5,551,940

98,580

577,860

8,700

777,850

122,500

89,440

530,470

6,390

35,530

25,500

463,050

39,340

17,905,910

6,310

1,673,390

28,050,280

3,031,130

26,101,290

9,362,500

16,738,790

849,040

89,030

1,297,840

115,740

2,953,830

142,450

18,541,680

11,999,460

1,093,880

5,448,340

515,980

284,900

70,820

524,760

1,250

79,320

29,202,430

892,340

5,023,540

4,925,480

98,060

550,780

415,250

174,130

4,690

698,860

113,190

84,580

2,510

130

11,860

32,460

516,590

6,350

34,840

24,240

451,150

7,280

33,710

170

6,270

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 10 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Yield Production

2002 2003 2002 2003

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay

 Barley

 Corn for Grain

 Corn for Silage

 Hay, All 2

 Alfalfa

 All Other

 Oats

 Proso Millet

 Rice

 Rye

 Sorghum for Grain

 Sorghum for Silage

 Wheat, All 2

 Winter

 Durum

 Other Spring

Oilseeds

 Canola

 Cottonseed 3

 Flaxseed

 Mustard Seed

 Peanuts

 Rapeseed

 Safflower

 Soybeans for Beans

 Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops

 Cotton, All 2

 Upland

 Amer-Pima

 Sugarbeets

 Sugarcane

 Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils

 Austrian Winter Peas

 Dry Edible Beans

 Dry Edible Peas

 Lentils

 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc.

 Coffee (HI)

 Ginger Root (HI)

 Hops

 Peppermint Oil

 Potatoes, All 2

 Winter

 Spring

 Summer

 Fall

 Spearmint Oil

 Sweet Potatoes

 Taro (HI) 3

2.95

8.16

31.42

5.25

7.15

4.18

2.04

0.70

7.37

1.53

3.18

21.40

2.37

2.59

1.98

1.97

1.36

1.12

0.79

2.87

1.64

1.70

2.54

1.27

0.74

0.73

1.44

45.38

78.50

2.32

1.58

1.95

1.70

1.35

1.54

50.44

2.23

0.10

40.67

30.03

30.32

34.59

41.95

0.12

16.82

30.03

4,939,580

228,805,080

95,235,350

136,950,420

66,972,010

69,978,420

1,729,200

62,480

9,568,990

177,430

9,392,290

3,048,140

43,992,310

31,101,970

2,162,270

10,728,070

704,210

5,823,490

319,270

56,000

1,506,150

2,050

135,160

74,290,500

1,132,730

3,732,880

3,591,580

141,300

24,992,940

32,596,960

403,530

7,440

1,359,600

192,410

113,760

20,730

3,860

6,530

26,460

3,090

21,011,030

190,780

1,056,600

838,510

18,925,140

880

566,900

2,770

188,380

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 11 NASS, USDA

Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003

(Metric Units) 1

Crop

Production

2001 2002 2003

Metric tons Metric tons Metric tons

Citrus 2

 Grapefruit

 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3

 Lemons

 Oranges

 Tangelos (FL)

 Tangerines

 Temples (FL)

Noncitrus

 Apples

 Apricots

 Bananas (HI)

 Grapes

 Olives (CA)

 Papayas (HI)

 Peaches

 Pears

 Prunes, Dried (CA)

 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA)

Nuts & Misc.

 Almonds (CA)

 Hazelnuts

 Pecans

 Pistachios (CA)

 Walnuts (CA)

 Maple Syrup

2,233,490

1,810

903,560

11,086,700

86,180

338,380

50,800

4,276,790

74,810

12,700

5,959,840

121,560

24,950

1,103,730

908,800

136,080

19,230

376,480

44,910

153,540

73,030

276,690

5,240

2,201,740

910

751,150

11,378,820

88,000

381,020

63,500

3,897,310

81,770

8,620

6,480,930

89,810

20,640

1,168,180

826,850

143,340

14,380

480,810

16,330

80,920

136,080

255,830

6,780

1,918,700

889,040

10,280,220

97,980

316,610

57,150

 1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the

full 2003 crop year. 2 Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3 Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 12 NASS, USDA

January Weather Summary

The influence of El Niño on mainland U.S. weather patterns temporarily waned during January, despite the

continuation of warm-episode conditions in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. In fact, the Nation

experienced its second-driest January on record, according to preliminary data from the National Climatic

Data Center. Unusually wet weather was confined to parts of the Northwest, but drought remained a major

concern elsewhere from the Rockies westward. East of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, dismal runoff

prospects for the remainder of 2003, low reservoir levels, and drought-damaged rangelands were among the

most serious effects of long-term Western precipitation deficits. Unfavorably dry weather also persisted on

the drought-affected northern and central High Plains. Just enough snow fell on the northern Plains in

advance of a mid- to late-month cold outbreak to help protect winter wheat from temperatures as low as -30oF. 

In contrast, mild weather prevailed for the entire month on the central Plains, benefiting overwintering wheat

despite dry soils and minimal snow. Dry weather and developing drought in the Corn Belt had little effect on

Midwestern agriculture, but hampered upper Mississippi Valley river traffic due to low water levels and

curtailed snow-dependent recreational activities. Meanwhile in the South, dry weather permitted an

acceleration of fieldwork, following an excessively wet spell in late 2002. Farther north, heavy, early-month

precipitation in the Northeast was followed by cold weather and several, mostly light, snowfalls.

January temperatures ranged from 4 to 12 degrees F above normal across most of the West and High Plains,

and averaged as much as 4 degrees F above normal in the upper Midwest. In contrast, monthly readings

ranged from 4 to 10 degrees F below normal in Florida and were as much as 6 degrees F below normal

elsewhere in the South. Cool January weather helped to acclimate Florida’s citrus trees in advance of the

January 24-25 freezing temperatures and added beneficial chill hours for fruit trees elsewhere in the

Southeast. Monthly temperatures were mostly 2 to 8 degrees F below normal across the eastern one-third of

the Nation, including the eastern Corn Belt and the Northeast.

January Crop Summary

Stormy weather persisted in the Pacific Northwest most of the month, delivering several inches of rain to

low-lying coastal areas and significant snowfall to coastal mountain ranges. Significant amounts of

precipitation also spilled over to inland mountains and valleys, improving topsoil moisture supplies, reducing

long-term moisture deficits, and boosting irrigation reserves. The stormy weather ended drought conditions

along the coast, but subsoil moisture reserves remained abnormally low in interior areas.

The storms produced little precipitation as they moved into the Great Plains, maintaining abnormally dry

subsoils and leaving winter wheat fields on the northern High Plains exposed to potentially damaging winds

and extreme temperature fluctuations. However, the threat of heaving and winter kill was minimal, as

temperatures averaged well above normal over the Rocky Mountains and northern High Plains most of the

month, including an early-month period of record and near-record daily highs.

The western Corn Belt and adjacent parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and central and northern Great

Plains experienced mostly dry weather with alternating periods of above and below normal temperatures. 

Slightly colder and wetter weather prevailed in the eastern Corn Belt and Northeast, but total precipitation

remained below average.

In the southern Great Plains, warm days and cool nights supported growth of winter grains and forages most

of the month. Soil moisture supplies were also adequate to support development, although dry, windy

weather rapidly depleted moisture reserves on the Texas High Plains, while parts of central and southeast

Texas experienced periods of excessively wet weather.

Temperatures remained below normal across the Southeast during most of the month, with below freezing

temperatures recorded as far south as central Florida, along the Gulf Coast, and into the southern Great Plains. 

Sub-freezing overnight temperatures frequently reached Florida’s citrus region, producing some minor bloom

injury on young citrus trees. However, there was no significant leaf burn or wood damage, and maturing

fruit experienced very little damage.

During the coldest nights, some damage was seen on vegetable crops and new plantings of sugarcane in the

Everglades region. Also, strawberry producers ran overhead sprinklers to form protective ice caps on plants
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 13 NASS, USDA

and immature fruit. Farther north, the cold weather provided beneficial chill hours for dormant fruit trees

across the interior Southeast.

In California, precipitation periodically interrupted field and orchard work in the central and northern valleys,

but the delays were mostly brief. The precipitation, combined with above-normal temperatures, contributed to

vigorous crop growth. Irrigated winter crops also flourished in the abnormally warm weather.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2002 is estimated at 35.9 million tons, 4 percent

above last year. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are estimated at 1.03 million for the

2002 crop year, slightly less than last year's harvested area. Yield is estimated at 35.0 tons per acre, 1.3 tons

above 2001. In Florida, acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are down 1 percent from last

year’s record high acreage. The Florida harvest continues with dry, favorable weather.

Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.12 million tons, unchanged from the

January 1 forecast but 13 percent less than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast remains

unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 14 percent below last season. The crop was not

affected by below freezing temperatures that occurred in late January. The all white grapefruit forecast

remains at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), 15 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit utilization

is forecast at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous season. The projected

fruit size and droppage are unchanged from January, with average sizes above the 10-season average and

slightly less droppage than the 10-season average. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are

carried froward from the January forecasts.

Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 349,000 tons, down 1 percent from the January 1

forecast and 17 percent below last season’s utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida’s tangerine crop forecast, at

5.00 million boxes (238,000 tons), is down 2 percent from last month and 24 percent lower than last season’s

utilization. Harvest of the Fallglo variety is complete and Sunburst tangerine harvest is virtually complete. 

Harvest is active for the late season Honey variety. Fruit size is smaller than last month which may be the

result of cold weather inhibiting growth. The 2002-03 Florida tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo,

Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and Dancy varieties as in previous seasons. 

This program change was implemented because of the declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by

the Florida Citrus Commission. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from the

January forecasts.

Tangelos: Florida’s 2002-03 tangelo forecast remains at 2.40 million boxes (108,000 tons), unchanged from

the January 1 forecast but 12 percent more than last season’s utilized production. Over two-thirds of the crop

has been harvested as of February 1.

Temples: Florida’s Temples are forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season,

unchanged from January but 10 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would equal the freeze

affected 1989-90 crop as the second smallest on record. Expected average fruit size is unchanged from last

month.

K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has

been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have been discontinued.

Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.87 million pounds for January, up 5 percent from

last month and 16 percent above January 2002. Area in crop totaled 2,080 acres, virtually unchanged from

last month but 19 percent below last January. Harvested area, at 1,505 acres, is 1 percent more than last

month but 18 percent lower than January 2002. Weather conditions over major non-irrigated papaya orchards

were mostly dry during January. Flowering and seedling growth were adversely affected by the lack of

normal rainfall.

Florida Citrus: The first week of January saw cool, wet weather with the remainder of the month being dry

and cold. On January 24, temperatures were at freezing or below in almost all areas of the citrus belt. 

Freezing temperatures combined with strong winds in the northern most area resulted in some fruit icing. 

However, most of the early and midseason oranges were already harvested in these locations and the small

amount of fruit remaining on the trees was quickly harvested for processing before damage occurred. 
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 14 NASS, USDA

Temperatures in the central and southern areas did not remain cold long enough to result in any damage. 

Processing plants limited deliveries to regulate processing in an orderly manner. The cold weather did not

affect the grapefruit crop, which is grown mostly on the east coast where temperatures were not as low. 

Growers and caretakers irrigated the last half of the month to maintain groves. Caretakers were active

mowing and chopping cover crops for fire prevention. Hedging and topping of harvested groves continued

across all areas and dead trees continue to be removed and burned when permits can be obtained.

California Citrus: Picking of navel oranges continued in several areas. Lemon harvesting was winding

down in some locations by month’s end. Minneola tangelo harvesting increased steadily. Rio Red,

Pummelo, and Oroblanco variety grapefruit were harvested in the desert area.

California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating,

and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Warm sunny weather during the middle of the

month raised concerns that tree fruit buds would break dormancy too early. Tying, brush shredding,

cultivation, and herbicide treatments continued in wine, raisin, and table grape vineyards. Orchard and

vineyard removal continued with trees and vines piled for burning or chipping. Open ground was prepared

for new plantings. Many tree fruit orchards were grafted with new fruit varieties. Weeding activity was

underway in many strawberry fields in Fresno County. The strawberry plants continued to show steady

growth, and harvesting began in some locations. Bee hives were placed in some stone fruit orchards in

anticipation of bloom by month’s end. Blooms were reported in a number of early variety peach and

nectarine orchards in the Sanger, Selma, and Reedley districts. Buds began to swell in almond orchards,

indicating that bloom was near.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 15 NASS, USDA

Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast

Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which

produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of

fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted

to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a

quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July.

Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors,

reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California,

and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the

Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published

February 1 forecast. 

Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month

throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September’s Citrus Fruits Summary. The

production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from

marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square

Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production

forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage

deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root

Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast

relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from

those influencing recent years. 

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you exclude

the five freeze seasons, the “Root Mean Square Error” is 3.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the

current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.3 percent, or 3.9 percent

excluding freeze seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed

7.4 percent, or 7.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. 

Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged

335,000 tons (336,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 31,000 tons to 745,000 tons (31,000 tons to 745,000 tons,

excluding freezes). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times

(below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1

forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

February 2003 16 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service

to contact for additional information.

Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127

Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944

Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068

Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526

Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234

Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum,

 Sugar Crops (202) 690-8140

Mark E. Miller - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127

Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285

Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412

Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, 

 Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears,

 Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250

Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

 Tobacco (202) 720-7235

Terry O’Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries,

 Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288

Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940

Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215

Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

 Strawberries (202) 720-2157
The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 11, 2003.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of

race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or

family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative

means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’s

TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten

Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). 

USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.

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Competing in the 21st Century

 February 20-21, 2003

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 2003 Commodity Prospects

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dealing with food safety and changing eating habits.

As always, leading analysts will be on hand to debate

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Networking opportunities abound at the Forum,

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 www.usda.gov/oce agforum@oce.usda.gov (877) 891-2208 toll free