Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted October 1; 1995

- 1,000 Acres -- --- Tons --- =e 1,000 Tons -------
AZ : 160 175 7.50 8.00 1,110 1,200 1,400
AR l/ : 25 25 3.40 3.50 90 85 88
CA : 950 1,050 7.00 6.60 6,348 6.650 6,930
co : 840 850 3.90 3.60 3,230 3,276 3,060
cT l/ : 24 20 2.90 2.30 48 70 46
DE l/ : 5 4 5.20 4.75 19 26 19
ID >: 1,020 1,100 3.90 3.90 4,200 3,978 4,290
IL : 650 650 3.50 4.00 3.002 2,275 2,600
IN : 350 280 3.80 4.00 1,320 1,330 1,120
IA : 1,250 1,450 3.70 3.70 3,953 4,625 §,365
KS : 800 850 3.90 3.80 3,230 3,120 3.230
KY : 300 290 3.70 4.00 1,110 1,110 1,160
ME l/: 18 15 2.50 2.30 53 45 35
MD I/ : 60 55 4.60 4,50 202 276 248
MA 1/ : 29 25 2.70 2.50 71 78 63
MI > 1,050 1,050 3.90 3.80 4,620 4,095 3.990
MN > 1,600 1,425 3.70 3.70 4,800 5,920 5,273
MO : 450 500 2,80 2.70 1,485 1,260 1,350
MT : 1,550 1,650 2.30 2.50 3,480 3,565 4,125
NE : 1,400 1,350 3.60 3.60 4,760 5,040 4,860
NV : 240 240 4.30 4.40 1,034 1,032 1.056
NH 1/: 19 18 2.10 2.00 37 40 36
NJ l/ : 30 30 3.70 3.70 69 111 111
NM : 260 260 5.20 5.40 1,301 1,352 1,404
NY : 620 600 2.95 2.50 1,715 1,829 1,500
NC 1/ : 20 20 3.00 3.10 40 60 62
ND : 1.450 1,500 1.90 2.40 3,230 2,755 3,600
OH : 660 750 4.20 3.90 2,275 2,772 2,925
OK : 320 400 3.50 4.00 1,188 1,120 1,600
OR : 410 450 4.00 4.00 1,764 1,640 1,800
PA : 800 780 3.00 2.80 2,262 2,400 2,184
RI l/ : 2 2 2.50 2.50 4 5 5
A) : 2,500 2,400 2.10 2.80 5,980 5.250 6,720
TN l/ : 50 50 3.30 3.00 198 165 150
1X : 90 150 4.50 4.20 366 405 630
UT : 525 545 4.20 4.30 2,200 2,205 2,344
VT l/ i: 105 90 2.20 1.90 212 231 171
VA l/ : 140 140 3.10 3.10 351 434 434
WA : 470 500 4.70 5.10 2,160 2,209 2,550
woods: 50 40 3.20 2.80 128 160 112
WI : 2,300 2,200 2.50 2.40 5.060 5,750 5,280
WY : 630 660 2.30 3.00 1,600 1,449 1,980
US : 24,222 24,639 3.36 3.49 80.305 81,398 85,906
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 A-20 NASS, USDA


In Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Ohio the 1995 number of pods per

18 square feet is the second highest, compared with the 1991-95 period. In
Indiana and Ohio, the percent of soybeans dropping leaves was ahead of last
year and the average. The percent of soybeans dropping leaves was behind 1994
but ahead of the average in Iowa. In Minnesota, the percent of soybeans dropping
leaves was equal to last year but ahead of the average. The percent of soybeans
dropping leaves was behind the average but equal to 1994 in Nebraska. In both
Indiana and Ohio, the percent of soybeans harvested was ahead of 1994 and the
average. In Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, the percent of soybeans harvested was
behind last year and the average.

In Missouri, the 1995 number of pods per 18 square feet ranks fourth in the
1991-95 period. The percent of soybeans dropping leaves was behind last year and
the average. The percent of soybeans harvested was behind 1994 and the average.

Forecasted yields in the non-objective yield States declined 1.8 bushels per
acre from last month. In Kansas and South Dakota, expected yields decreased due
to the early frost. In Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, Delaware,
and Maryland, expected yields were reduced due to the dry conditions in late
August and September. North Dakota was the only non-objective yield State to
increase their forecasted yield. The remaining non-objective yield States
remained unchanged.

Soybean Revisions-1994: The 1994 soybean production was revised to 2.52 billion
bushels. down 41.6 million bushels from the previous

1994 estimate. Planted acreage was revised to 61.7 million acres, down

270,000 acres from the previous estimate. Harvested acreage decreased to

60.9 million acres, down 270,000 acres from the previous estimate. The

resulting yield is 41.4 bushels, a decrease of 0.5 bushel from the previous

estimate.

Revisions were made based upon an analysis of end-of-marketing year stocks
estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and availability of
additional data in some States. This information was previously released in the
September “Grain Stocks” report.

Sunflower: Production is forecast at 4.57 billion pounds in 1995, 5 percent

below the 1994 crop but 78 percent above 1993. Harvested area, at
3.48 million acres, is up 2 percent from 1994. Yield is down 97 pounds at the
U.S. level from last year.

In North Dakota, late planting was offset by an abundance of growing degree
days. The first killing frost occurred during the week ending September 23 in
most areas. By that time 71 percent of the bracts had turned yellow or beyond.
Overall), in North Dakota the frost did more good than harm by pushing the crop
further to harvest. As of October 1, sunflower development was slightly ahead
of last year and the average and the crop was in mostly good condition.

Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.51 billion pounds.down 2 percent from the
September 1 forecast and down 17 percent from last year’s banner crop.

Favorable weather during September allowed harvest to progress nicely across

most of the peanut belt. Acreage for harvest is 1.52 million acres, down

1 percent from September and 6 percent below last year. Yields are expected to

average 2,302 pounds per harvested acre, down 31 pounds from last month and down

322 pounds from 1994.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-6 NASS, USDA


DROUGHT SEVERITY
(LONG TERM, PALMER)
September 30, 1995
¢ UPDATED BI-WEEKLY
MopEBATE /// 4 a
Au
oy
MOIST MOIST: - ¥,
iS) , =
SEVERE
“ (oe) 010) in
Coben Ate ‘
MOIST =A5 af Ss
MoesT Cf = \(@jexmeme
ian (_) )
MODESATE! 7
= 0 Gare __ Qyonst,
: - = N
MOIST MODEHATE_ }
7 — NS
7
~ 5
%
MOIST
NOANUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Based on preliminary reports

Drought Severity

Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal
dryness or wetness; responds slowly: changes little from week to week: and
reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as
evaportranspiration.

Uses...applicablte in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or
wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or
wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in
aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.

Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of
drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this
is indicated by the crop moisture index).

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-2 NASS, USDA



The California all grape forecast. at 5.09 million tons, was carried forward
from August. That level is down 3 percent from last year. Of this total,
2.25 million tons are raisin varieties, 2.20 million tons are wine varieties,
and 640,000 tons table varieties. Picking of Thompson Seedless grapes for all
uses iS nearing completion with good quality reported. Table grape harvest in
the San Joaquin Valley is active. Color has been slow to come in many
vineyards. Wine grape harvest is behind normal due to low sugar levels.

Grape production in Washington increased to 308,000 tons. up 1 percent from
August and up 37 percent from 1994. Cool, wet weather slowed maturity and
caused mildew and black leaf problems in the Concords. Picking began in mid-
September and is expected to continue through October. Niagara grape harvest is
complete. Bunch rot has been seen on some white wine varieties. Rain delayed
wine grape harvest which is expected to continue into early November.

New York production remains at 175,000 tons, a decrease of 8 percent from last
year. Lack of rain limited production: however. there is little disease
pressure. Michigan forecasts 72,000 tons, up 3 percent from August and up

11 percent from 1994. Niagara harvest is complete while Concord harvest began
late September. Japanese beetle activity is higher than normal. Brix levels
are normal. Pennsylvania expects to produce 70,000 tons, unchanged from last
forecast but down 13 percent from the previous year. A lack of precipitation
resulted in smaller berries in some areas but impeded the growth of mildew.

Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 1995-96 U.S. Grapefruit crop is

2.82 million tons, down 3 percent from last season. Beginning with
the 1995-96 crop year, separate forecasts for California Desert and Other area
grapefruit production will not be available.

The October 1 Florida all grapefruit crop forecast is 54.0 million boxes

(2.30 million tons), 3 percent less than last year but 6 percent more than the
1993-94 crop. Average fruit size is slightly smaller than last year while fruit
set is down from a year ago. The white seedless grapefruit forecast is

24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), down 7 percent from the 1994-95 season.
The colored seediess forecast is 29.0 million boxes (1.23 million tons),

1 percent more than last season. The seedy grapefruit crop is expected to total
1.00 million boxes (43.000 tons) 23 percent less than last year and 5 percent
less than two years ago.

California all grapefruit forecast is 8.50 million boxes (285.000 tons),

9 percent smaller than the last two years. The crop matured early. permitting
some growers to begin picking. Large sizes were reported although fruit set is
down considerably. The Arizona 1995-96 crop is 1.20 million boxes

(40,000 tons), 14 percent less than last year. Widespread sunburn and smal]
fruit size contributed to decreased production. Texas production is

5.00 million boxes (200.000 tons). 8 percent more than last year and 67 percent
gore than two years ago. Trees are in good condition despite some problems with
eaf minor.

Lemons: The 1995-96 lemon crop is forecast at 1.05 million tons, 14 percent
more than last year and 6 percent more than the 1993-94 crop.

California production in 1995-96 crop is forecast at 22.0 million boxes
(836.000 tons). 7 percent more than last year and 6 percent more than in 1993-
94. Lemon harvest was active with good quality reported. The Arizona lemon
crop is expected to be 5.50 million boxes (209,000 tons). up 53 percent from a
year ago and 6 percent more than the 1993-94 season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-11 NASS, USDA


Soybeans: Area Planted by State and United States, 1994 1/

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

AL : 310 4,600
AR : 3,450 2.900
DE : 225 150
FL : 45 1,400
GA : 520 640
TL : 9,500 4,000
IN 4,600 300
IA 8,800 320
KS 2,150 600
ky 1,150 2.430
LA : 1,150 1,100
MD : 560 220
MI i 1,550 540
MN : 5,700 860
MS : 1,900

us 61,670
1/ Revised

U.S. Soybean Production

ee egg a iis
2.00 ZO TV Z A Gi
wol Al Ale| VWACAG iG \A\At
1.00 J Z JOU
0.50 Y IAIAIANG ZA Zi


The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in
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To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C.,

20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal
employment opportunity employer.

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For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its
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Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-19 NASS, USDA


Apples ...........
Beans. Dry Edible
Citrus Fruit .....
Corn for Grain

Corn for Grain, Ears per Acre .

Cotton ...........

Crop Moisture Maps
Grapes ...........
Hay, All .........

Index

Hay. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay .........

Hay, Other

Hazelnuts
Lentils ..........
Papayas ..........
Peanuts ..........

Peas, Austrian Winter .............. cee cece eee eee

Peas, Dry Edible
Pecans .
Potatoes

Reliability Statement .................. 0. e eee

Rice oo... eee
Sorghum for Grain
Soybeans for Beans
Sugarbeets .......

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed ..................0005

Sunflower ........

Tobacco by Class and Type

Tobacco by States
US Summary ......

Crop Production
October 1995

Page
Table

A-32
A-22
A-30
A- 9
A-35
A-17
A-18
B-1
A-29
A-19
A-20
A-21
A-34
A-23
A-35
A-16
A-24
A-23
A-33
A-24

A-12
A-11
A-13
A-29
A-29
A-15
A-26
A-28
A- 3

Narrative

~B-12

B- B
B-12
B- 4

an
°

me
@ © © ©

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—

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RDoaOaOooawnawaaenea
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Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS. USDA


Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted. Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1993-95

1D : 1,100 150 44 90
OR : 1.170 5 7 eT
: 1,109 155 51 101

Winter Potatoes: Area Planted. Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States. 1994-95 1/

: Area Planted Area Harvested
State Docrc tess e ttn c cc rc r tec e scr r crt t tect cere r ctr r seers

cA : 4.5
FL : 8.4

1/1995 revised.

Agricultural Statistics Board

Crop Production
A-24 NASS, USDA

October 1995


Production in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida. Georgia. and South
Carolina) is expected to total 2.04 billion pounds, 3 percent below last month
and 20 percent below the 1994 crop. Yield for the 4-State area is expected to
average 2,265 pounds per acre. 42 pounds below last month. A reduction of

100 pounds in Georgia's expected yield per acre contributed to reduced prospects
in the region. As of October 1, harvest was 63 percent complete in Alabama with
variable yields reported. The Georgia crop was rated 3 percent very poor,

15 percent poor, 56 percent fair, 23 percent good, and 3 percent excellent.
nearly equal last month's rating. Digging was 79 percent complete and threshing
neared the 62 percent mark by month's end. The Florida peanut harvest was
delayed by dry soil in some areas of the Panhandle and excessive moisture in
others. In South Carolina, harvest was 35 percent complete compared with an
average 30 percent for this date.

Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 541 million pounds, down

2 percent from last month and down 30 percent from last year’s outstanding crop.
Yield per harvested acre in the region. at 2.324 pounds. is 872 pounds per acre
below last year’s final average. Yield expectations in Virginia declined by
100 pounds per acre from last month. Harvest is slightly behind normal with

14 percent of the acreage combined compared with an average rate of 15 percent.
In North Carolina, timely rains have helped harvest progress. As of October 1,
combining stood at 12 percent complete compared with 10 percent normally for
this date.

The peanut crop in the Southwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected
to total 927 million pounds, unchanged from last month but 1 percent above 1994.
Yields in the tri-state area are expected to average 2.377 pounds per acre,

126 pounds above last year. In Texas, peanut harvest has begun in most parts of
the High Plains and Cross Timbers with about 12 percent of the crop harvested.
Digging got underway in Oklahoma as soils dried out from plentiful rainfatl
received during the later part of the month. In New Mexico, prospects remain
good although cool and wet weather hampered harvest progress.

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 15.7 million acres, is up
19 percent from last year, American-Pima harvested acreage, at
192,500 acres, is 16 percent above 1994.

In early October, 29 percent of Texas cotton acreage was in good to excellent
condition and 28 percent was rated poor to very poor, reflecting a wide range in
condition. Boll opening was 57 percent complete. 3 percent ahead of the 5-year
average. Unusually high precipitation amounts during September, followed by
cooler than normal weather the last of the month, adversely affected maturity.
Showers also delayed harvest in the Blacklands, Trans Pecos, and East Texas.
Cotton objective yield data indicate Texas has the lowest large boll counts and
lowest boll weights since 1985.

The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee)
rated their cotton mostly in fair to good condition in early October. However,
condition in all States diminished during September. One-half of the cotton in
Louisiana was poor to very poor and 34 percent was rated fair on October 1.
During September, producers applied insect controls and defoliated, preparing
for an early harvest. Objective yield surveys show Louisiana and Mississippi
with the lowest number of large bolls since 1985. Arkansas counts are third
lowest during this time period. Early season data indicate Arkansas and
Mississippi boll weights are the lowest during the past 10 years, and Louisiana
weights rank ninth.

Thirty-eight percent of Arizona's cotton acreage rated in good to excellent
condition. Harvest was 8 points below the average pace. at 12 percent, on

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested,
United States. 1994-95 (Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested

Crop --

/
Flaxseed : 178 213 Vi 206

Potatoes :

Winter 2/ : 12.9 13.3 12.3 11.9
Spring : 91.6 88.6 90.4 86.8
Summer : 95.8 72.5 92.3 70.7
Fall : 1,220.1 1,220.0 1,187.7 1,199.9
Total 2/ : 1,420.4 1,394.4 1,382.7 1,369.3
Sweetpotatoes : 86.1 87.0 82.8 83.6
Hops : 42.4 43.5

1/ 1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1995 revised.

Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production,
United States, 1994-95 (Domestic Units)
Yield per Acre Production
Crop and Unit Dercctceec eee weer terrence ee ee ree reece eee ee ne ere ee

Potatoes :

Winter 2/ Cwt : 193 208 2,372 2,473

Spring "oo: 251 258 22,646 22,387

Summer " o: 243 249 22,391 17,590

Fal) “ : 354 420,515

Total "oo: 338 467,924
Hops lb: 1,758 1,748 74,5596 75,972.0
Peaches 7 : 2.506.500 2,492,700
Pears Ton : 1,046.2 963.3
Sweet Cherries "oo: 207.2 135.7
Tart Cherries Lb: 287.800 391,000
Apricots Ton : 158.2 67.5
Olives (CA) "oo: 84.0 85.0
Dried Prunes (CA) “ : 193.0 185.0
Prunes and Plums :

(Excl CA) “ : 38.1 25.0
Almonds (CA) lb: 730,000 310,000
Walnuts (CA) Ton : 232.0 220.0

1/ 1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ 1995 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-5 NASS, USDA



Corn: Ears per Acre

The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting corn objective yield
surveys in 10 States during 1995. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain
fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts
and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual counts from this survey
and are not official estimates of the Agricultural Statistics Board, but rather
intended to show trends in corn production practices.

Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre,
Selected States, 1991-1995 1/

State 1991 : 1992 : 1993 : 1994. : 1995 27
Number
23.000 22,600 22,600 22,900
22.700 22.200 22/150 23,000
24,000 22.500 24,000 24,050
24.600 22.300 22.250 22,650
27.000 24.900 26.950 25.750
19,400 18.500 19,250 19,600
22.100 21,800

23,200
20,700

1/ Based on ear counts in plots selected for objective yield samples.
2/ > Based on October 1, 1995 counts.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-35 . NASS, USDA


All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

2. 2.

3. 3.

2. 2.

3. 2.

1. 1.

2. 1.

3. 2.

3. 2.
GA 650 600 3.00 2.50 1,140 1,950 1,500
1D 230 300 2.00 1.90 644 60 570
IL 450 400 2.00 2.50 1,104 900 1,000
IN 300 400 2.60 2.90 962 780 1,160
IA 500 400 2.30 2.20 850 1,150 880
KS 1,650 1,650 1.70 2.00 3,200 2,805 3,300
KY 1,950 2,100 2.20 2.30 4,416 4,290 4,830
LA 2/ 290 300 2.80 2.30 672 812 690
ME 1/ 195 180 1.85 1.90 315 361 342
MD 1/ 140 165 2.80 2.60 348 392 429
MA 1/ 77 80 1.80 1.70 115 139 136
MI 350 350 2.20 2.30 750 770 805
MN 700 850 2.30 2.30 1,170 1,610 1,955
MS 750 750 2.50 2.20 1,728 1,875 1,650
MO 2.900 2,850 1.90 1.95 5,850 5.510 5,558
MT 650 850 1.50 1.60 1,326 975 1,360
NE 1,900 1.800 1.25 1.15 2,563 2,375 2,070
NV o1/ 230 250 1.60 1.70 351 368 425
NH 1/ 60 60 2.05 1,90 98 123 114
NJ 1/ 90 100 1.80 1.60 162 162 160
NM 1/ 70 75 2.10 2.00 133 147 150
NY 1,040 1,100 2.05 1.80 1,890 2,132 1,980
NC 490 510 2.30 2.30 675 1,127 1,173
ND 1,350 1,300 1.30 1.40 1,813 1,755 1,820
OH 620 550 2.60 2.40 1,200 1,612 1,320
OK 1,880 2.000 1.60 1.60 3,060 3,008 3,200
OR 600 650 2.00 2.10 1,302 1,200 1,365
PA : 1,120 1,130 1.90 1.90 2,090 2,128 2,147
RI 1l/ : 6 5 2.15 1.80 11 13 9
Sc : 250 290 2.60 2.30 414 650 667
sp 1,600 1,700 1.30 1.50 2,210 2,080 2,550
TN 1,650 1,650 2.20 2.20 3,280 3,630 3,630
TX 3,500 3,600 2.30 2.40 7,140 8,050 8,640
UT 1/ 160 150 2.00 2.20 330 320 330
VT 1/ 220 225 1.90 1.80 391 418 405
VA 1,060 1,100 1.80 2.00 2,140 1,908 2,200
WA 240 260 2.40 2.60 675 576 676
WV 500 510 1.90 1.80 931 950 918
WI 400 400 2.00 1.60 1,200 800 640
WY 500 650 1.20 1.60 1,008 600 1,040
US : 34,522 35,589 1.99 2.00 66,494 68,726 71,097
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Includes alfalfa hay.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 A-21 NASS, USDA



Tobacco: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by Class. Type. State,

and United States,

Class and Type

Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3B, Dark
Air-Cured
Type 35, One Sucker
Belt
KY
TN
US
Type 36, Green River
Belt
KY :
Type 37, VA Sun-Cured :
Belt :
VA
Total 35-37

Class 4, Cigar Filler
Type 41, PA Seedleaf
PA

Class 5, Cigar Binder :
Class 5A, CT Valley
Binder
Type 51, CT Valley

Broadleaf
CT
MA
US

Class 58, WI Binder
Type 54, Southern WI
W

Type 55, Northern WI
W

Total 54-55
Total 51-55

Class 6, Cigar Wrappe
Type’ 61, CT Valley
Shade- Grown

MA

US
All Cigar Types
Total 41-61

All Tobacco

1994 and Forecasted October 1, 1995 (continued)

2,600 2
620
3,220 2
1.400 1
70
4,690 4
5.4004,
690
210
900,
2.0002,
1.000 1
3.000 3
3.900 4
910
280
1,190 1,
10.4909,
: 671.160 674,

.200 2,480 2,300 6.448 5
550 2,150 2,100 1,333 1

.750 2,416 2,260 7,781 6

.200 2,780 2,350 3,892 2.
70 1,770 1,100 124

,020 2,515 2,267 11,797 9,

500 2,100 2,050 11,340 9,

820
200

890
905

Be
Pe

930 400

020 = =61.893 1,874 1,704 1,

860 1,304 1,

060
155
215

820

77

112

225

525

386
911

300

900
200
111

406
390
796

132

Crop Production
October 1995

aod) = 2,100 2,150 4,200 4,
000 1,710 1,900 1,710 1
.000 1,970 2,067 5,910 6
.020 1,952 2,018 7,614 8
950 1,400 1,480 1,274 1,
260 1,400 1,500 392
210 1,400 1,484 1,666 1,
730 1.966 1,966 20,620 19,
040 «62.358 1,940 1.582.816 1,307,
Agricultural Statistics
A-27 NASS.

Board
USDA



Lentils: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States, 1993-95

1D : 1,100 1,300 840 935 884
WA : 990 1,400 1,166 921 1,050
us 1,043 1,352
Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, Production,
by State and United States. 1993-95 1/
Area Planted

BSS

1994 1995 1994 1995

1,000 Acres
1D : 49.0 70.0 47.0 68.0
WA : 82.0 96.0 81.0 95.0
US
1994
1,000 Cwt

ID 846 1,564
WA 1,409 2,185
US 2,255 3,749

l/ Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-23 NASS, USDA


CROP MOISTURE
(SHORT TERM, CROP NEED VS. AVAILABLE WATER IN 5-FT. SOIL PROFILE)

September 30, 1995

NOAAUSDA JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY _nesed on pretrinay reports

Crop Moisture

Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting
Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and
indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.

Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness
or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.

Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops
which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile.
or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55
degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months,
years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-1 NASS, USDA


Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1993-94
and Forecasted October 1, 1995

State c------- 22 eee cen ee ne eer tee rn tener tte csc cee
1993 1994 1995 1/
1,000 Tons
US 6,343.2 7,603.9 7,373.7

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio

U.S. All Cotton Production
1985 - 1995

0 Million Bales

20.00 fever i reer ; 1 TIT} + penteeg
15.51 16.22 16.14

Ki

343 14.76 15:4
15.00 - AO cree Ze . Nii Prrvririity

10.00 N IN N N

\
soo] N. WN N \ NIN

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 98 94 95
Year

LLL

Zia

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-18 NASS. USDA


U.S. Corn Production

1986 - 1995
veo Elion Buel
$0.00 | nnn AB. eo

823 138 9 \
8.00/4 Ni iQue tS. Sie \ lh eeeeeeeeeee YY

\
A \\!|\ (em \\! \
ae

0.00

Year

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 AD NAS, USDA


Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop. State, and United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Crop and State

1993 1994 1/ 1995
1.000 Pounds

Improved Varieties 2/
AL : 15,000 2,000 7.000
AR 3/ : 600 600 1,000
CA 3/ : 3,000 1,500 2,800
FL 3/ : 3.200 400 900
GA : 124,000 50,000 65,000
LA : 2.500 1,500 2,000
MS 3/ : 3,500 2.000
NM : 36,000 24,000 30.000
NC 3/ : 1,200 2,200 2,000
OK : 1,000 1,300 3,000
SC 3/ : 2,100 5.400 2,400
TX : 45,000 30,000 40,000
US : 237.100 118.900 158,100

Native & Seedling
AL : 11,000 2,000 5.000
AR 3/ : 900 900 500
FL 3/ : 4,300 1.500 800
GA : 26,000 15,000 15,000
KS 3/ : 1,800 3,600 1,800
LA : 13,500 9,500 12,000
MS 3/ : 2,500 500
NC 3/ : 1,300 2,800 700
OK : 17,000 10,700 17,000
SC 3/ : 900 3,600 600
TX : 30,000 10,000 20,000
US : 109,200 59,600 73,900

All Pecans :
AL : 26,000 4,000 12,000
AR 3/ : 1,500 1,500 1,500
CA 3/ : 3.000 1,500 2.800
FL 3/ : 7,500 1,900 1,700
GA : 150,000 65,000 80,000
KS 3/ : 1,800 3,600 1,800
LA : 16,000 11,000 14,000
MS 3/ : 6,000 2,500
NM : 36.000 24,000 30,000
NC 3/ : 2,500 5,000 2,700
OK 2 18,000 12,000 20,000
SC 3/ : 3,000 9,000 3,000
TX : 75,000 40,000 60,000
Oth Sts 4/ : 18,700 20,500 16,000
US : 365,000 199,000 248,000

1/ Missing data included in Other States to avoid disclosure of individual
operations.

2/  Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties.

3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

4/ AZ, MO, and TN in 1993 and 1995. AZ, MS, MO, and TN in 1994. No breakdown
between varieties available.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-33 NASS, USDA


Citrus Fruit: Utilized Production by crop. State, and United States.
1994-95 and Forecasted 1996 on October 1. 1995 1/

roduction
Ton Equivalent

Oranges
Early Mid &
Navel 3/ :
AZ : 700 400 500 26 15 19
CA 4/ : 36.600 35,000 38.000 1,372 1,313 1,425
FL : 107.300 119,700 122.000 4,829 §.387 5.490
TX : 480 950 1,000 21 40 43
US : 145,080 156,050 161,500 6,248 6.755 6.977
Valencia 2
AZ : 1,200 650 600 45 24 23
CA : 27,000 26,000 28,000 1,013 976 1,050
FL : 67,100 85,700 80,000 3,020 3,857 3,600
TX : 70 105 200 3 4 9
a : 95.370 112.455 108,800 4,081 4,861 4,682
AZ : 1,900 1,050 1,100 71 39 42
CA : 63,600 61,000 66.000 2,385 2,289 2,475
FL : 174,400 205.400 202.000 7,849 9.244 9,090
1X : 550 1,055 1,200 24 44 52
US : 240,450 268,505 270.300 10.329 11.616 11,659
Temples :
FL : 2,250 2,550 2.200 101 114 99
Grapefruit :

White Seedless
FL 24,500 25,700 24.000 1,042 1,092 1,020

Colored Seedless
FL 25,500 28.700 29,000 1,084 1,220 1,233

Other :
ait : 1,050 1,300 1,000 45 55 43
AZ : 1,750 1,400 1,200 59 47 40
CA _5/ :
Desert : 3,400 3.300 114 111
Other Areas : 5,900 6,000 197 201
Total : 9,300 9,300 8,500 311 312 285
FL : 51,050 55,700 54,000 2,171 2,367 2,296
TX : 3,000 4,650 5,000 120 186 200
us : 65,100 71,050 68,700 2.661 2.912 2,821
Tangerines
AZ 1,000 650 950 37 25 36
CA 2,300 2,200 2,300 86 82 86
FL 4,100 3.550 4,100 195 168 195
US 7,400 6,400 7,350 318 275 317
Lemons
AZ 5.200 600 5,500 197 137 209
CA 20,700 20,500 22,000 787 779 836
US 25,900 24,100 27,500 984 916 1,045
Tangelos
FL 3,350 3,150 2,500 150 142 113
K-Early Citrus
FL 210 120 100 9 5 5
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 A-30 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Hectare and Production, United States,
1994 and Forecasted October 1,.1995
(Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare Production

1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1995.

Metric Tons

Corn for Grain 8.70 7.32 256,628,780 198,945,520 191,560,380
Sorghum for Grain 4.58 3.72 16,638,300 13,658,180 12,492,910
Rice > 6.69 6.40 8,971,110 8,244,860 8,057,710
Soybeans for Beans 1/ : 2.78 2.39 68,493,190 62,175,290 59,620,020
Peanuts 2 2.94 2.58 1,926,610 1,623,910 1,592,150
Sunflower 1.58 1.47 2,193,660 2,074,940
All Cotton 0.79 0.65 4,280,900 4,412,330 4,168,050
Upland 0.79 0.64 4,207,370 4 332,210 4,086 840
Amer -Pima : 1.09 1.04 73,530 80,120 81,210
Cottonseed : 6.898.140 7,093,010 6, 689.310
All Hay 2/ : 5.73 5.84 136,190,200 142,767,290 142,430,720
Alfalfa 2/ 7.53 7.82 73,843,020 78,092,280 77,932,610
All Other 2/ 4.46 4.48 62,347,180 64,675,010 64,498,110
Dry Edible Beans 2/ 1.77 1.80 1,323,900 ~ 1,455,030 1,387.270
Dry Edible Peas 1/ 1.97 2.58 102,290 170,050
Austrian Winter
Peas 1/ 1.24 1.69 2,310 4,580
Lentils 1/ 1.17 1.52 84,190 87,720
All Tobacco : 2.64 2.24 717,950 611,140 593,260
Sugarbeets 2 49.70 45.63 29,024,470 26,386,380 26,156,860
Sugarcane for :
Sugar and Seed : 74.01 69.87 28,058,320 26,361,880 27,416,940
Apples, Comm’) 2/ : 5,141,700 5,073,660 5,050,980
Grapes 2/ : 5,325,720 5,236,720 5,240,350
Pecans : 90,260 112,490 112,490
Hazelnuts 3/ : 19,140 34,470 34,470
Citrus Fruits 4/ : 1994-95 1995-96 1995-96
Oranges : 10,537,860 10,576,870
Grapefruit : 2,641,720 2,559,170
Lemons : 830,980 948,010

1/ 1994 revised.

2/ September estimate carried forward from August 1.

3/ September 1 forecast carried forward from mid-August forecast published
August 24, 1995.

4/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-7 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:
1994 and Forecasted October 1,
(Metric Units)

Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1995

Area Planted

Crop ew nnn en nee nee nee eee ee ee ee eee eee ee eee
1994 1996 1994
Hectares

Corn : 32,034,450 28,857,630 29,508,780
Sorghum : 3,954,630 3,687,540 3,628,860
Rice > 1,356,930 1,280,840 1,341,950
Soybeans 2/ > 24,957,230 25,327,520 24,629,030
Peanuts : 664,100 633,340 654,990
Sunflower 1,443,530 1,460,120 1,388,090
All Cotton 5,552,390 6,744,160 5,391,400

Upland 5,484,200 6,665,240 5.324,060

Amer-Pima 68,190 78,910 67,340
All Hay 23,773,110

Alfalfa 9,802,400

All Other 13,970,710
Dry Edible Beans 819,820 829,490 746,730
Dry Edible Peas 2/ 53,010 67,180 $1,800
Austrian Winter

Peas 2/ 2,830 4,410 1,860
Lentils 2/ 72,840 59,890 72,030
Tobacco 271,610
Sugarbeets 597,240 586,640 583,970
Sugarcane for

Sugar and Seed 379,110

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie.,

2/ 1994 revised.

Crop Summary:
United States,

Area Planted and Harvested,
1994-95 (Metric Units)

26,176,160
3.359, 330
1,258,990

24,975,850

616,950
1,409,940
6,426,680
6,348,780

77,900

24,373,670
9,971,160

14,402,510

772,070

65,960

2,710
57,870
272,780
578,220

377,290

grain, beans, etc.

Area Planted

CO 9 ee
1994 1995 1/ 1994
Hectares
Flaxseed : 72,030 86,200 69.200
Potatoes :
Winter 2/ 5,220 5.380 4,980
Spring 37,070 35,860 36,580
Summer 38,770 29,340 37,350
Fall 493,760 493,720 480,650
Total 2/ 574,820 564,300 559,560
Sweetpotatoes 34,840 35,210 33,510
Hops 17,160

1/1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

2/ 1995 revised.

Crop Production
October 1995

Agricultural Statistics Board

A-6

NASS, USDA


All Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production

State :------------- 2228 oo eee ene ne ren nent ete
1994 1995 1993 1994
: - 1,000 Acres - --- TONS --- wn -e 1,000 Tons --
AL : 750 720 2.70 2.10 1,440 2,025 1,512
AZ : 195 205 6.80 7.39 1,236 1.326 1,514
AR : 21,125 1,050 2.23 2.04 2,390 2,505 2,138
CA : 1,470 1,700 5.59 5.19 7,590 8,210 8.815
co > 1,330 1,430 3.05 2.83 4,193 4,060 4,046
CT : 83 75 2.30 1,79 138 191 134
DE : 15 13 4.07 3.31 45 61 43
FL : 240 230 3.10 2.80 650 744 644
GA : 650 600 3.00 2.50 1,140 1,950 1,500
10 > 1,250 1,400 3.55 3.47 4,844 4,438 4,860
IL : 1,100 1,050 2.89 3.43 4,106 3,175 3,600
IN : 650 680 3.25 3.35 2,282 2,110 2,280
TA : 1,750 1,850 3.30 3.38 4,803 5,775 6,245
KS : 2,450 2,500 2.42 2.61 6.430 5,925 6,530
KY : 2,250 2,390 2.40 2.51 5,526 5,400 5,990
LA : 290 300 2.80 2.30 672 812 690
ME : 213 195 1.91 1.93 368 406 377
MD : 200 220 3.34 3.08 550 668 677
MA : 106 105 2.05 1.90 186 217 199
MI : 21,400 1,400 3.48 3.43 5,370 4,865 4,795
MN : 2,300 2,275 3.27 3.18 5,970 7,530 7,228
MS : 750 750 2.50 2.20 1,728 1,875 1,650
MO : 3,350 3,350 2.02 2.06 7,335 6.770 6,908
MT > 2,200 2,500 2.06 2.19 4,806 4,540 5,485
NE : 3,300 3,150 2.25 2.20 7,323 7,415 6,930
NV : 470 490 2.98 3.02 1,385 1,400 1,481
NH : 79 78 2.06 1.92 135 163 150
NJ : 120 130 2.28 2.08 231 273 271
NM : 330 335 4.54 4.64 1,434 1,499 1,554
NY 1,660 1,700 2.39 2.05 3,605 3.961 3,480
NC 510 530 2.33 2.33 715 1,187 1,235
ND 2,800 2,800 1.61 1,94 5,043 4,510 5.420
OH 1,280 1,300 3.43 3.27 3.475 4,384 4,245
OK 2,200 2.400 1.88 2.00 4,248 4,128 4,800
OR 1,010 1,100 2.81 2.88 3,066 2,840 3,165
PA 1,920 1,910 2.36 2.27 4,352 4,528 4,331
RI 8 7 2.25 2.00 15 18 14
Sc 250 290 2.60 2.30 414 650 667
sD 4,100 4,100 1.79 2.26 8,190 7,330 9,270
IN 1,700 1,700 2.23 2.22 3,478 3,795 3.780
TX 3,590 3,750 2.36 2.47 7,506 8,455 9,270
UT 685 695 3.69 3.85 2,530 2,525 2,674
VT 325 315 2.00 1.83 603 649 576
VA 1,200 1,240 1.95 2.12 2,491 2,342 2,634
WA 710 760 3.92 4.24 2,835 2,785 3,226
wv 550 550 2.02 1.87 1,059 1,110 1,030
WI 2,700 2,600 2.43 2.28 6,260 6,550 5,920
WY 1,130 1,310 1.81 2.31 2,608 2,049 3,020
US 58.744 60,228 2.56 2.61 146,799 150,124 157,003
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 A-19 NASS, USDA


Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States. 1994 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Area Harvested Yield Production

1994

1995 1994

AL 260 220 96.0 70.0 70.0 24,960 15,400
AZ 1/ 15 2 170.0 160.0 160.0 2,550 3,200
AR 1/ 90 85 120.0 125.0 125.0 10,800 10,625
CA 170 140 165.0 160.0 165.0 28,050 23,100
co 2) 890 800 150.0 145.0 135.0 133,500 108,000
DE 150 142 125.0 100.0 95.0 18,750 13,490
FL 1/ 80 60 85.0 77.0 77.0 6,800 4,620
GA 540 360 106.0 100.0 100.0 57,240 36.000
ID 1/ 35 35 140.0 140.0 140.0 4,900 4.900
IL 11,450 10,000 156.0 126.0 117.0 1,786,200 1,170,000
IN 5.960 5.200 144.0 125.0 119.0 858.240 618.800
IA 12,700 11,500 152.0 125.0 121.0 1,930,400 1,391,500
KS 2,130 1,950 143.0 140.0 135.0 304,590 263,250
ky 1,220 1,150 128.0 122.0 122.0 156,160 140,300
ua M 306 235 115.0 105.0 105.0 35,190 24,675
He 2) 390 380 118.0 105.0 100.0 46,020 38,000
MI 2,230 2,100 117.0 120.0 120.0 260.910 252,000
MN 6,450 6,000 142.0 130.0 123.0 915,900 738,000
MS 1/ 305 275 100.0 95.0 95.0 30,500 26,125
MO 2,300 1.350 119.0 105.0 107.0 273,700 144,450
MT 1/ 20 18 135.0 140.0 140.0 2,700 2,520
NE 2) 8.300 7,800 139.0 120.0 114.0 1,153,700 889.200
NJ 1/ 81 82 119.0 110.0 110.0 9,639 9,020
NM 1/ 5 85 150.0 170.0 170.0 12,750 14,450
NY 590 560 116.0 97.0 97.0 68,440 54,320
NC 900 800 91.0 105.0 110.0 81,900 88.000
ND 540 400 100.0 82.0 85.0 54,000 34,000
OH 3,500 3,150 139.0 122.0 122.0 486,500 384,300
OK 1/ 165 126 100.0 120.0 120.0 16,500 15,000
OR 1/ 20 17 170.0 140.0 140.0 400 2.380
Rt 2 1,030 990 120.0 106.0 104.0 123,600 102,960
Sc 345 280 85.0 89.0 89.0 29,325 24,920
SD 3,400 2,300 108.0 80.0 79.0 367.200 181.700
TN 570 $70 116.0 120.0 120.0 66,120 68,400
TX 2,040 2,100 117.0 115.0 113.0 238.680 237.300
uy uM 22 23 130.0 125.0 125.0 860 2,875
VA 350 300 98.0 100.0 100.0 34,300 30,000
WA 1/ 105 105 185.0 190.0 190.0 19,425 19,950
WV 1/ 35 35 105.0 110.0 110.0 675 3.850
WI 3,100 2,900 141.0 124.0 119.0 437,100 345,100
WY 1/ 48 4 122.0 118.0 118.0 856 4.720
US 72,917 64,682 138.6 121.1 116.6 10,103,030 7,541,400

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Not estimated.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-9 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States. 1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

tee-e Acres ---- --- Pounds -- --------- 1,000 Pounds ----------
CT 1,600 1,770 1,611 1,656 2,533 2,578 2,931
FL 6,500 7,000 2,550 2,400 18.673 16,575 16.800
GA 37,000 42,000 2,180 2.000 96,320 80,660 84,000
IN 7,100 6.500 2,150 2,120 17,415 15,265 13,780
ky 187,000 172,700 2,426 2.123 455,080 453.687 366,680
MD 8,500 8,500 1,500 1,350 12,255 12.750 11,475
MA 490 460 1,616 1,687 738 792 776
MO 3,500 2,700 2,290 2,100 4,760 8,015 5,670
NC 243,200 260,100 2,466 1,789 608.415 599,833 465.360
OH 8,500 8.300 2,160 1.950 18,900 18,360 16,185
PA 9,000 7,900 2,040 1,985 18,260 18.360 15,685
Sc 47,000 50,000 2,300 2,150 110.760 108.100 107.500
TN 60,350 56,940 2,192 1,850 139,423 132,289 105,350
VA 46.420 44,170 2,285 1,950 99,544 106,092 86,112
Wy 2,000 2,000 1.775 1,700 3,600 3.550 3,400
WI 3.000 3.000 1,970 2,067 6,643 5.910 6,200
US 671.160 674,040 2,358 1,940 1,613.319 1,582,816 1,307.904
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 A-25 NASS, USDA


NUASEY National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service

Crop
Production

United States
Department of
Agriculture

Washington, D.C.

Released October 11, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For
information on “Crop Production” call (202) 720-2127, office hours 8:00 a.m. to
4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information
about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at
1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV. Forecasts refer to October 1, 1995.

Corn and Soybean Production Down

Corn production is forecast at 7.54 billion bushels, down 25 percent from the
record high 1994 production of 10.1 billion bushels and 4 percent below the
September 1 forecast. Based on conditions as of October 1. yields are expected
to average 116.6 bushels per acre. down 4.5 bushels from last month and

22.0 bushels below a year earlier. Acreage for harvest for grain is estimated
at 64.7 million acres, the same as last month. The late planting in Illinois,
Indiana, Iowa, and Nebraska, coupled with the early freeze. reduced yield
prospects from the September 1 forecast.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.19 billion bushels as of October 1. down

4 percent from the September 1 forecast and 13 percent below 1994. Yield is
forecast at 35.5 bushels per acre, 1.5 bushels below September 1 and 5.9 bushels
below 1994. Dry conditions in late August and September and the early frost
resulted in a lower yield. A lower pod weight was partially offset by a
slightly higher pod count. Pods counted in the October survey indicate the
second highest average on record.

Index and report features are located at the end of this report.

Cr Pr 2-2 (10-95)


is smaller than normal because of the heat and drought. North Carolina harvest
reached the 60 percent mark but is running 5 percentage points behind schedule.
Uneven fruit size and a spotty crop reduced potential in Pennsylvania. Cool
nights and sunny days improved flavor and color in Virginia's crop.

Production in the Central States is forecast at 1.69 billion pounds, up slightly
from the August 1 forecast and 22 percent above the 1994 crop. Harvest in
Michigan is well ahead of normal. Quality is excellent in most parts of the
state with a few reports of small sized fruit. The record crop has caused
sporadic labor shortages. The Macintosh crop was nearly picked by the end of
the month as the Empire and Jonathan harvest neared completion.

Production in the Western States, is forecast at 6.52 billion pounds, unchanged
from the August 1 forecast and 11 percent below the 1994 crop. Harvest of most
varieties is underway in Washington. Crop quality is good but smaller-than-
average fruit are being picked. Red Delicious harvest peaked in Yakima County
and is active in Chelan County under favorable weather conditions. Harvest is
active in California where a good quality crop is expected.

Pecans: The October 1 forecast for U.S. pecan production is 248 million pounds

(in-shell basis), unchanged from September but up 25 percent from last
year’s crop of 199 million pounds. This forecast does not reflect any damage
which occurred in the southeast during Hurricane Opal on October 4 - 5, 1995.
The forecast in Oklahoma increased while the Alabama forecast decreased this
month. All other forecasting states remained at the same level.

Georgia production is unchanged at 80.0 million pounds, an increase of

23 percent from 1994. Ory conditions persisted in September in the main pecan
producing areas. Aphids and scab have caused problems in some areas. Pecans
are expected to be of better quality than last year, but nuts will be smaller.
Harvest started the last week of September.

The Texas forecast is 60.0 million pounds, unchanged from the previous forecast,
but 50 percent above last year. Harvest started in several areas. Producers
continue to report problems with nut drop. insects, and disease. New Mexico
forecast of 30.0 million pounds. is equal to last month but 25 percent more than
1994. Weather conditions remained conducive for nut development during
September and good quality is reported. Production in Oklahoma is forecast at
20.0 million pounds. 11 percent above September and 67 percent higher than last
year. Most producing areas received ample moisture during September. Web worms
continue to be a problem in many areas.

Alabama forecasts 12.0 million pounds, down 14 percent from September, but up
from last year’s 4.00 million pounds. Premature nut droppage and limb damage
caused by Hurricane Erin reduced pecan production in southern Alabama. Dry
conditions in many areas prevented optimal nut fill. Louisiana expects

14.0 million pounds, the same as last forecast but 27 percent above the previous
year. Dry weather has held down prospects for an above average crop. Harvest
should be getting underway shortly.

Hazelnuts: Hazelnut production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at

38,000 tons for 1995. unchanged from August and 80 percent above the
previous year. If realized, this level will be the second largest crop ever,
7 percent below the 1993 record high of 41,000 tons. The Oregon production
remains unchanged at 37,900 tons. an increase of 80 percent from 1994.
Washington production. at 100 tons. is carried forward from August. Harvest is
underway. but progress slowed due to wet orchards.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-13 NASS, USDA


Rice: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production, by State
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production

:+ 1,000 Acres - --- 1,000 Cwt ----
AR : 1,420 1,340 5,700 5.600 5,550 80,940 74,370
CA : 485 448 8,500 8,300 8,150 41,224 36,512
LA : 620 590 4,750 4,750 4,550 29,448 26,845
MS : 313 295 5,900 5,700 5,500 18,467 16,225
MO l/s: 124 100 5,200 5,100 5,100 6,448 5,100
1TM : 354 338 6,000 5,800 5,500 21,252 18,590
US 3,316 3,111 5,964 5,843 5,710 197,779 177,642

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Rice: Production by Class, United States.
1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Year Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain All
1,000 Cwt
1993 : 103,064 51,873 1,173 156,110
1994 : 133,445 63,390 944 197,779
1995 1/ : 125,436 51,290 916 177,642

1/ Indicated October 1, 1995, rice class forecasts are based on a five-year
average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data
become available through the growing season.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-12 NASS, USDA


Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States. 1994 and Forecasted October 1. 1995

Area Harvested

1,000 Acres -- ose -- 1,000 Bushels --
AL 1/ : 20 8 45.0 40.0 40.0 900 320
AR : 245 185 75.0 60.0 70.0 18,375 12,950
co : 170 220 45.0 42.0 40.0 7,650 8,800
GA 1/ : 40 30 50.0 38.0 38.0 2,000 1,140
IL : 180 170 99.0 83.0 79.0 17,820 13.430
Ks : 3,000 2,900 77.0 68.0 60.0 231.000 174,000
KY 1/ : 11 16 92.0 90.0 90.0 1,012 1,440
LA : 123 82 68.0 65.0 65.0 8,364 §.330
MS : 70 45 75.0 74.0 74.0 5,250 3.330
MO : 550 550 90.0 87.0 81.0 49,500 44,550
NE : 1,250 1,050 98.0 72.0 61.0 122,500 64,050
NM : 180 195 38.0 37.0 33.0 6,840 6,435
NC 1/ : 20 15 55.0 50.0 50.0 1,100 750
OK : 280 280 50.0 52.0 52.0 14,000 14,560
SC 1/ : 8 8 40.0 35.0 35.0 320 280
So : 190 180 65.0 41.0 41.0 12,350 7,380
TN 1/ : 30 17 88.0 87.0 87.0 2,640 1,479
TX : 2,600 2,350 59.0 60.0 56.0 153,400 131,600
US 8,967 8,301 73.0 65.0 59.2 655,021 491,824

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-i1 NASS, USDA


the Mountain and Plains States about September 18-24, killing vines in many
fields that were not yet mature. Up to 8 inches of snow covered fields in
Colorado, Kansas, Wyoming. and Nebraska. Expected yields are down from North
Dakota to Texas. Harvest progress is late in Several States, ranging from

46 percent complete in Colorado to 65 percent complete in Idaho and 70 percent
complete in Nebraska. Michigan, New York, and North Dakota, on the other hand,
are ahead of normal.

Heavy dry bean production this year is expected from Michigan, up 42 percent
from last year. North Dakota is up 7 percent. Minnesota is up 6 percent. and
California expects a 14 percent gain. Nebraska's forecast, although down from
August, iS 7 percent above last year. Idaho and Wyoming are short of a year
ago.

Lentils: Production of lentils is estimated at 1.93 million cwt, up 4 percent
from last year but 4 percent below 1993. Harvested area, at

143,000 acres, was down 20 percent from last year and the same as two years ago.

The average yield of 1,352 pounds per acre jumped 309 pounds from 1994 but fell

51 pounds short of 1993. Some growers in Washington were hit by hail storms

while others reported the best crop they've ever had.

Dry Edible Peas: Production of dry peas is estimated at 3.75 million cwt, up
66 percent from last year’s drought stricken crop and

14 percent above 1993 production. Harvested area is estimated at 163,000 acres,

up 27 percent from last year and 12 percent above 1993. The average yield of

tgea" pounds per acre jumped 538 pounds from last year and 30 pounds better than

Austrian Winter Peas: An Austrian winter pea crop of 101,000 cwt is estimated
for 1995, almost double last year but 35 percent below

1993. Area harvested, at 6,700 acres, was up 46 percent from 1994 but

36 percent below 1993. The average yield of 1,507 pounds per acre gained

398 pounds from a year earlier and 31 pounds from 1993.

Winter Potatoes, 1995 Revised: The final 1995 production of winter potatoes was

estimated at 2.47 million cwt, up 4 percent from
last year but 3 percent below 1993. Final area harvested was 11,900 acres, down
3 percent from 1994 and 12 percent below 1993. The average yield of 208 cwt per
acre climbed 15 cwt above 1994 and 20 cwt per acre over 1993.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1995 is forecast at 1.31 billion

pounds, down 17 percent from 1994. Harvested acres are expected to be
674,040 acres, up fractionally from last year. Yields for 1995 are estimated to
average 1,940 pounds per acre. 418 pounds below the average for 1994.

Flue-cured production is expected to total 730 million pounds. down 2 percent
from the forecast of a month ago and 16 percent below a year ago. This
reduction is due to lower yields and @ decrease in forecasted acres for harvest
in Georgia. Flue-cured growers plan to harvest 385,000 acres, 7 percent above
Jast year. Flue-cured tobacco accounts for 57 percent of this year’s total
tobacco acreage.

Burley production is expected to total 491 million pounds, 20 percent below the
Production of 1994. Yield is expected to average 1,991 pounds per acre,
309 pounds below the average for 1994. Burley tobacco growers expect to harvest

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-9 NASS, USDA


Apples. Commercial: Total Production by State and United States,
1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995 1/

A) ) 1 eee
1993 1994 1995
Million Pounds

AZ 3/ : 61.0 64.0

AR 2/ : 12.0 8.0 14.0
CA 2/ : 880.0 1,050.0 1,000.0
Co 2/ : 92.0 85.0 70.0
CT 2/ : 24.5 25.0 23.0
DE 2/ : 28.0 20.0 21.0
GA 2/ : 34.0 26.0 35.0
ID 2/ : 195.0 165.0 70.0
IL 2/ : 90.0 47.0 85.0
IN 2/ 80.0 50.0 72.0
IA 2/ 9.5 12.0 8.0
KS 2/ 7.0 5.0 7.5
KY 2/ 22.0 7.0 17.0
ME 2/ 54.0 54.0 61.0
MD 2/ 42.0 35.0 48.0
MA 2/ : 59.0 62.5 65.0
MI : 1,020.0 1,020.0 1,220.0
MN 2/ : 23.0 23.2 24.0
MO 2/ 51.0 33.0 40.0
NH 2/ 36.5 41.0 39.0
NJ 2/ 75.0 70.0 80.0
NM 3/ 7.0 8.0

NY 870.0 1,100.0 1,110.0
NC : 320.0 250.0 230.0
OH 2/ : 105.0 90.0 110.0
OR 2/ : 160.0 200.0 140.0
PA : 530.0 400.0 500.0
RI 2/ : 5.3 4.8 5.0
SC 2/ : 60.0 60.0 75.0
TN 2/ : 19.0 10.0 18.0
UT 2/ : 53.0 48.0 20.0
VT 2/ : 38.0 42.0 41.0
VA : 370.0 290.0 400.0
WA 5,000.0 5,700.0 5,200.0
WV 190.0 150.0 190.0
WI 2/ 62.0 80.0 77.0
US 10,.684.8 11,335.5 11,135.5

1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
3/ Data not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-32 NASS. USDA


Papayas: Hawaii papaya production in September amounted to 2.73 million pounds,
16 percent lower than August and 35 percent lower than September,
1994,

Weather conditions were variable, with a mix of light rainfall and sunshine
during the first half of September followed by drier conditions over the
second half. Papaya ringspot virus continued to depress yields and production
in the major producing area of the state.

Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3.745 acres, 1 percent lower than
August but 15 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling

2,330 acres. decreased slightly from August but was 10 percent higher than last
September.

California Fruits and Nuts: Table grape harvest continued throughout the San
Joaquin Valley under good weather conditions. By
month's end, raisins were in all stages of harvest from just laid, to being
dried, rolled, and binned. Nectarine, peach, plum, and prune harvests were
virtually complete throughout the state. Golden delicious and red delicious
apples were harvested in Sonoma County. Fuji, Granny Smith, and Gala apples
were harvested in the San Joaquin Valley. Early walnut harvest began in some
areas of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. Late walnut varieties were
sprayed for worms, codling moth, and weed control. Almond harvest neared
completion. Fig and pomegranate harvests continued in Fresno and Tulare
Counties. Kiwifruit and persimmon harvests began mid-month in Sutter County.

California Citrus: New crop Desert grapefruit harvest began. Harvest is

earlier than usual because excess heat matured the crop
quickly. Set is down significantly but individual fruit size is large. Old
crop Other Area harvest was ending. Lemon picking is active with good quality
reported. New crop Navel oranges were maturing well. Harvest is expected to
begin in Kern County by mid-October. Old crop Valencia orange picking remained
active in Southern California. Tangerines matured well with average fruit size.
Harvest should begin by late October.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-14 NASS, USDA



Citrus Fruit Footnotes

1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with
year harvest is completed.

2/) Net lbs. per box: oranges - AZ & CA - 75. FL - 90, TX - 85; grapefruit
AZ & CA - 67, FL - 85, TX - 80; lemons - 76: tangelos, K-Early Citrus &
Temples - 90; tangerines - AZ & CA - 75, FL - 95.

3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in CA and AZ. Early and mid-season
varieties in FL and TX, including small quantities of tangerines in TX.

4/ California Navel estimate carried forward from September 1, 1995.

5/ California Desert and Other Area Grapefruit forecasts combined to Al]
Grapefruit beginning in 1995-96.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-31 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary:

United States

1994-95 (Metric Units)

Yield per Hectare and Production

Potatoes
Winter 2/
Spring
Summer
Fall
Total
Hops
Peaches
Pears
Sweet Cherries
Tart Cherries
Apricots
Olives (CA)
Dried Prunes (CA)
Prunes and Plums
(Exel CA)
Almonds (CA)
Walnuts (CA)

1994

21.60
28.08
27.19
39.68
37.93

1.97

24.39
28.91
27.89

1994

107,
1,027,
1,015,

19,074,
21,224
33,
1,136,

949,

187,

130,

143,

76,

175,

34,
331,
210,

590
210
640
240

, 680

820
930
050
970
540
520
200
090

560
120
470

1995 1/

Metric Tons

1/ 1995 estimates carried forward from earlier forecast

2/ 1995 revised.

Crop Production
October 1995

A-8

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Ory Edible Beans:

and United States,

1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995 1/

Area Harvested

,000 Acres

0
0
0
0
0
6
0
0
75
75
0
.0
0
3
0
3
0

MT 2/
NM 2/

OR 2/
UT 2/
WI 2/

145,
170.
108.
30.
390.
147.
10.
220.
13.
33.
520.
10.
23.

Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State

--- Poun

2,130
1,600
1,950
1,750
1,300
1,710
2,200
1,880
2,260
1,520
1,300
1,970

840

380
2,100
2,100
1,910

ds --

2,200
1,600
1,900
1,500
1,700
1,500
2,100
1,730
2,000
1,550
1,260
2,300

800

400
2,100
1,900
1,600

2,210
2,609
2,091
378
6,080
836
155
2,100
189
459
2,964
174
311
24
798
145
390

21,913

-- 1,000 Cwt

2,790
3,280
2,691
560
4,680
2,079
220
3,572
283
$85
6,110
197
218
24
840
237
821

29,187

1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed.
2/ Estimates carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production
October 1995

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Belt. Rains later in the month hindered harvest activity in the western Corn
Belt and slowed cotton harvest in the Southeast. Crop conditions declined as
the month advanced because of dry soil conditions and low temperatures across
the central States and below normal rainfall in the Delta and Western States.

Early September started with short soil moisture supplies in the central Corn
Belt. Cool. dry weather allowed the smal? grain harvest to make good progress
in the Western States, but rain was needed to improve winter wheat germination.
Rainfall brought cooler weather to the Corn Belt and ended weeks of above-normal
temperatures. Crop conditions continued to decline in the Corn Belt from weeks
of hot. dry weather.

Crop development approached near-normal levels later in the month. In the
Western States, continued dry conditions limited crop growth and wheat seeding.
Soybeans in the Midwest were 1 to 2 weeks behind schedule and needed pod-filling
rain. Precipitation fell from the southern Great Plains to the Mid-Atlantic,
missing the Corn Belt and arriving too late to benefit the crops. The rain
provided pre-planting moisture for wheat seeding in the Eastern States. In the
Midwest, damage from corn borers left Stalks breaking over, prompting producers
to harvest early and at higher than normal moisture levels. In the Southern
Great Plains, cotton needed warmer weather to reach maturity, while cotton bolls
opening in the Southeast were ahead of normal.

On September 22 and 23, a killing-freeze in the western and central Corn Belt
ending the growing season one to three weeks early. Snow across the upper High
Plains caused planting and harvesting delays. Harvesting activity was delayed
by heavy rains that fell from Texas to the Northeast. Some soybean fields were
weeks from the stage of development needed to protect them from the freeze.
Some immature cotton in central Texas was defoliated and harvested, while cold
weather hampered the maturing of the crop in the Texas plains.

The end of September brought a return to summer-like weather across the Central
States that allowed harvest activity to make good progress. Condition for all
crops declined from mid-month, reflecting producers’ assessment of crop damage
from the freeze. Many soybean plants that sustained freeze damage were still
green. The accelerated development from the summer's heat wave left some corn
fields mature enough to endure the freeze and limited damage. Heavy rains fell
from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region, bringing pre-planting
moisture for winter wheat seeding, but slowing harvest activity. A late-week
storm brought heavy rains to the Pacific Northwest. causing small grain planting
lelays.

Corn for Grain: Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 64.7 million

acres. unchanged from last month but 11 percent below the 1994
harvested acreage. As of October 1, 17 percent of the acreage in the 17 major
corn States had been harvested, only slightly behind the five-year average of
19 percent. In the 17 States. 52 percent of the crop was reported in good to
excellent condition compared with 86 percent a year earlier. Frosts on
September 22 and 23, primarily in the western corn belt. damaged some late
planted crops. Some growers are reportedly harvesting corn at higher than normal
moisture levels because of concern over abnormally high ear droppage.

The October 1 corn objective yield data indicate the second highest ear count
per acre for the 10 Corn Objective Yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Lowa,
Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin).
The ear count is slightly below the record final ear count set in 1992, but
slightly above the 1994 final ear count.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-4 NASS, USDA



As of October 1, 1995, 53 percent of the Iowa corn crop was reported in good to
excellent condition, well below last year’s level. Nine percent of the crop was
harvested compared with 12 percent a year earlier. The October 1 ear count for
Iowa, if realized, would be a record high.

The Illinois corn crop was reported 40 percent good to excellent--last year

91 percent was reported good to excellent. The harvest was reported 20 percent
comptete compared with 21 percent last year. The ear count for Illinois is
second only to the 1992 crop.

The Nebraska crop, which was planted about 2 weeks later than last year, was
only 2 percent harvested compared with 20 percent a year earlier. The crop was
reported 44 percent good to excellent--down from 88 percent a year ago. The
third highest ear count is forecast for Nebraska.

The Minnesota crop is reported 69 percent good to excellent compared with

88 percent last year. About 12 percent of the crop was harvested compared with
only 6 percent a year earlier. The October ear count, if realized, would be the
third highest on record.

Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 492 million bushels, down

9 percent from September 1 and 25 percent from 1994. This
production level is the lowest since 1983. The U.S. yield is forecast at
59.2 bushels per acre, down 5.8 from last month and down 13.8 bushels from last
year’s record high. Seven States lowered yield expectations from last month,
most markedly in Kansas and Nebraska with drops of 8.0 and 11.0 bushels,
respectively. The Arkansas harvest is resulting in better yields than forecast.

As of October 1, 56 percent of the crop was mature in the 12 major States and
harvest had reached 30 percent completion. These compare to the averages of
67 and 35 percent, respectively.

Rice: Production of all rice is forecast at 178 million cwt, 2 percent below

the September 1 forecast and 10 percent below 1994. This production
level. if realized, would be the fourth highest on record. Yields decreased in
Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas causing a decrease in
the U.S. yield to 5,710 pounds. In California, late plantings and weed problems
have reduced yields. Heat and heavy rain during blooming reduced yields in
Louisiana. In Texas, the yield was reduced due to disease problems. Harvesting
is underway with the rice crop in mostly good condition.

Soybeans: Growers plan to harvest 61.7 million acres, unchanged from the

September forecast. The October Objective Yield Survey reported the
second highest pod count for the objective yield States. The average plant
maturity lags behind last year but is ahead of 1993. The percent of soybeans
dropping leaves is behind 1994 and ahead the average by the beginning of
October. Soybean harvest is behind 1994 and the average. Soybeans are rated in
good condition.

In comparison with the 1991-95 time period. the 1995 number of pods per

18 square feet for October is the highest for Arkansas and Illinois. In both
States, the percent of soybeans dropping leaves was behind last year but ahead
of the average. In Arkansas. the percent of soybeans harvested was behind last
year but equal to the average. In Illinois, the percent of soybeans harvested
was behind 1994 and the average.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-5 NASS, USDA




Sugarbeets: Area Harvested. Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995 1/

: -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ----- -

CA : 141.0 118.0 29.0 27.0 3,536 4,089 3,186
co : 43.2 41.2 21.9 19.3 924 946 795
1D : 201.0 198.0 27.9 25.0 4,733 5,608 4,950
MI : 187.0 190.0 16.2 17.0 3,179 3.029 3,230
MN : 411.0 418.0 20.6 17.5 5,344 8.467 7,315
MT : 54.0 §5.5 24.2 23.0 1,169 1,307 1,277
NE : 74.1 72.4 20.3 17.7 1,473 1,504 1,281
ND : 201.5 207.0 21.2 18.3 3,112 4,272 3,788
OH : 16.0 14.7 16.5 17.5 212 264 257
OR : 16.4 18.3 27.8 26.2 372 456 479
1TM : 24.5 19.5 20.3 22.0 823 497 429
Wy : 61.3 62.0 18.0 21.5 1,269 1,103 1,333
Oth :

Sts 2\: 12.0 14.2 37.7 36.1 103 452 §13
US : 1,443.0 1,428.8 22.2 20.2 26,249 31,994 28,833

1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted
beets in CA.
2/ Includes NM and WA.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995 1/

Area Harvested Yield Production 1/
BSS Oo Re
1994 : 1995 2 1994 : 1995 2 1993 : 1994 : 1995
-- 1,000 Acres - ---~ Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons -------
FL : 444.0 445.0 33.6 34.0 15,152 14,937 15,130
HI : 69.3 50.0 77.4 85.0 5,606 5,364 4,250
LA : 380.0 395.0 24.4 24.0 8,904 9,272 9,480
1X : 43.5 42.3 31.2 32.2 1,439 1,356 1,362
us : 936.8 932.3 33.0 32.4 31,101 30,929 30,222
1/ Net tons.
Crop Production Agricultura) Statistics Board

October 1995 A-28 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Yield per Acre and Production, United States,
1994 and Forecasted October 1, 1995
(Domestic Units)

Yield per Acr Production
Crop and Unit Potten rte ee ee nn ee en ee ee ee eee eee ee

-- 1,000 ---
Corn for Grain Bu: 138.6 116.6 10,103,030 7,832,140 7,541,400
Sorghum for Grain “ : 73.0 59.2 655,021 537,699 491,824
Rice 1/ Cwt : 5,964 5,710 197,779 181,768 177,642
Soybeans for Beans 2/Bu : 41.4 35.5 2,516,694 2.284.551 2,190,661
Peanuts Lb : 2,624 2,302 4,247,455 3.580,100 3,510,100
Sunflower "2 1,410 1,313 4,836,185 4,574,450
All Cotton 1/ Bale: 708 579 19, 662.0 20.265.7 19,143.7

Upland 1/ " i 705 574 19,324.3 19,897.7 18,7707

Amer-Pima 1/ " : 974 930 337.7 368.0 373.0
Cottonseed Ton : 7,603.9 7,818.7 7,373.7
All Hay 3/ “ : 2.56 2.61 150,124 157,374 157,003

Alfalfa 3/ " : 3.36 3.49 81,398 86,082 85,906

All Other 3/ “or 1.99 2.00 68.726 71,292 71,097
Ory Edible Beans 1/3/Cwt : 1.582 1,603 29,187 32,078 30,584
Dry Edible Peas 1/2/ * : 1,762 2,300 2,255 3,749
Austrian Winter :

Peas 1/2/ “ : 1,109 1,507 51 101
Lentils 1/2/ " : 1,043 1,352 1,856 1,934
All Tobacco Lb : 2,358 1,940 1,582,816 1,347,334 1,307,904
Sugarbeets Ton: 22.2 20.2 31,994 29,086 28,833
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed . 2 33.0 32.4 30,929 29,059 30.222
Apples, Comm’1 3/ Lb: 11,335,500 11.185.500 11,135,500
Grapes 3/ Ton : §,870.6 5,772.5 5,776.5
Pecans Lb: 199,000 248,000 248,000
Hazelnuts 4/ Ton : 21.1 38.0 38.0
Citrus Fruits 5/ : 1994-95 1995-96 1995-96

Oranges Ton : 11.616 11,659

Grapefruit “Oo: 2,912 2,821

Lemons . : 916 1,045

1/ Yield in pounds.

2/ 1994 revised.

3/ September estimate carried forward from August 1.

4/ September 1 forecast carried forward from “Hazelnut Production” released
August 24, 1995.

5/ Season begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the
completion of harvest the following year.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-4 NASS, USDA


Tangelos: The 1995-96 Florida tangelo crop is forecast at 2.50 million boxes

(113,000 tons), 21 percent less than last year’s crop and 25 percent
Jess than 1993-94. Although there are more bearing trees, fruit set and size
are down.

Temples: Florida 1995-96 temple production is forecast at 2.20 million boxes
(99,000 tons), 14 percent below last year and 2 percent below 1993-94,
Smaller fruit size and decreased set per tree contributed to reduced production.

Tangerines: The 1995-96 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 317.000 tons,

15 percent more than last season but 1 percent less than the
1993-94 crop. Florida's tangerine forecast is 4.10 million boxes
(195,000 tons), up 15 percent from last season. Although fruit size and set
were mixed for Sunburst and Honey varieties, more trees are bearing fruit.

California tangerine production is forecast at 2.30 million boxes (86,000 tons),
up 5 percent from 1994-95 and equal to production in 1993-94. The crop was
maturing well with average fruit size. Arizona's tangerine forecast is

950,000 boxes (36,000 tons), 46 percent more than a year ago but 5 percent less
than 1993-94. OQverall, there were few problems with disease and insects.

K-Early Citrus: Production of K-Early Citrus Fruit in Florida is expected to
total 100,000 boxes (5,000 tons), 17 percent below last year

and less than half the 1993-94 crop. Although the number of bearing trees

remained the same, lower fruit set and smaller size reduced the crop.

Florida Citrus: Groves, trees, and new crop fruit are in very good to excellent

condition. Rainfall during September was above average for the
lower east coast. lower interior, and west coast. The central and northern
interior parts of the citrus belt had normal rainfall. The tropical type
conditions generated a lot of new foliage on trees of all ages. Fresh fruit
packers started packing red and white grapefruit, Navel oranges, Ambersweet
Oranges, Robinson tangerines. and K-Early Citrus fruit. All of these fresh
crops moved in very limited quantities. A few processing plants received
packing house eliminations. Volume harvesting is expected to increase rapidly
during October. Caretakers actively cut cover crops, sprayed, fertilized. and
removed dead trees.

Texas Citrus: Harvesting early oranges began in a few groves in the Rio Grande
Valley by late September. Good quality is expected this season.
Citrus leaf minor continued to be a problem across the Valley. Trees, despite
the leaf minor, remained in good condition. September rains offset some of the
need to irrigate, the results of a dry summer. Water shortage could cause
problems as the season progresses. Some grapefruit bloom was lost due to cool
temperatures but is more than compensated by new acreage coming into production.

Apples: The final forecast of the 1995 apple crop places production at

11.1 billion pounds, down fractionally from the August 1 forecast and
2 percent below last year’s production. Increased production in Michigan was
offset by reduced prospects in New York, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

The Eastern States expect 2.92 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the
August 1 forecast but 11 percent above a year ago. Hot, dry weather during the
summer reduced the crop along much of the East Coast. In New York, fruit size

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-12 NASS, USDA


246.600 acres, 7 percent below last year. Kentucky, with 66 percent of the 1995
burley area, is 7 percent below a year ago.

The tobacco harvest in the Southeastern region (Georgia, Kentucky, South
Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia) was nearly complete, slightly
ahead of normal. Burley cutting in Kentucky was 96 percent complete as of
October 1. Housed tobacco in Kentucky was mostly good to fair, with almost

20 percent ready for stripping and 5 percent stripped. Curing weather was ideal
during the end of September in Tennessee, where 93 percent of the tobacco was
harvested with 10 percent stripped. Yields declined due to delayed
transplanting followed by cool, wet weather during the early summer that
provided ideal conditions for the spread of disease. A mid-summer heat-wave
combined with dry weather slowed the spread of blue mold. Tobacco fields
affected by the blue mold suffered severe losses. Continued hot weather in
September lowered condition ratings and depleted soil moisture supplies.
Tobacco markets were active during September with markets in Florida and Georgia
closing in early October.

Sugarbeets: Production is expected to total 28.8 million tons, a decrease of

10 percent from last year. The area for harvest, at 1.43 million
acres, is virtually unchanged from the September 1 forecast but down 1 percent
from last year. Yields are expected to average 20.2 tons per acre, 2.0 tons
below last year’s yield.

Freezing temperatures in mid-September cut the growing season short for some
late-planted sugarbeet fields in the central States. The sugarbeet harvest
started slightly behind normal in most States due to delays in spring planting.
In North Dakota, where eight percent of the sugarbeets were lifted by the end of
September, condition was mostly good to excellent. In Minnesota the freeze
aggravated Cercospora problems in some fields. Sugarbeets in Colorado were
covered with a blanket of snow on September 20, followed by freezing
temperatures that burned upper leaves and lowered yield prospects. Hot. dry
weather and insect problems limited plant growth in Michigan, where the early
harvest was just beginning. In California. good growing conditions followed the
late-spring planting and warm, dry summer weather limited insect problems.

Sugarcane: Sugarcane production as of October 1 is expected to total

30.2 million tons, a decrease of 2 percent from 1994. The area for
harvest, at 932,300 acres. is up 1 percent from the September 1 forecast and
down fractionally from last year. The forecasted yield. at 32.4 tons per acre,
is 0.6 ton below last year’s yield.

Growing conditions for Louisiana sugarcane in September were hot and dry. The
increase in sugarcane acres for harvest in Louisiana reflects continued
expansion beyond the fringes of the traditional sugarcane areas. In Louisiana,
the sugarcane harvest was beginning with conditions reported as good to fair. A
wet month for Florida allowed sugarcane to make good growth. Sugarcane growers
started planting in Florida and the first sugarcane mill is expected to open in
mid-October. Dry weather persisted over Hawaii and plantations that converted
to seasonal harvesting concluded the sugarcane harvest.

Grapes: Grape production for October 1 is 5.78 million tons, up slightly from

the August forecast but down 2 percent from last year. Michigan and
Washington increased while New York and Pennsylvania remained unchanged.
Production for all other states was carried forward from the previous August
forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-10 NASS, USDA



Sunflower:
and United States,

Varieta Area Harvested :

Area Harvested, Yield. and Production, by Type, State,
1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Yield

Type & beeen anne nnn nn nn ene eee ee eee eee teens

1994

1995

1994

State : 1994 1995
: = 1,000 Acres -
011 :
co 69 77
KS 190 185
MN 375 380
NE 44 71
ND 1.310 1,300
SD 896 921
TX 20 19
Oth
Sts 39 45
US 1/ : 2,943 2,998
Non-oi] :
co 26 33
KS 54 65
MN 100 67
NE 27 43
ND 225 210
SD 24 29
TX 13 19
Oth
Sts 18 20
US 1/ 487 486
All
co 95 110
KS 244 250
MN 475 447
NE 71 114
ND 1.535 1,510
SD 920 950
x 33 38
Oth
Sts 57 65
US 1/ 3,430 3.484

oo Pi

1,000
1,400
1,300
1,050
1,450
1,550
1,100

1,145
1,435

1,050
1,200
1,125
1,000
1,350
1,600
1,100

1,360
1,258

1,014
1.356
1,263
1,031
1.435
1,551
1,100

1,213

founds ---

950
210
250
000
360
380
200

Pepe eH

31,668
2.160, 268

28,520
41,070
96,000
27,060
152,100
25,650
20.400

20,995
411,795

89,000
194,970
382,000

65,210
966,900
788,920

32,400

52,663
2,572,063

69,000
266,000
487,500

46,200

1,899,500
1,388,800
22,000

44,655
4,223,655

27,300
64,800
112,500
27,000
303.750
38,400
14,300

24,480
612,530

96,300
330,800
600.000

73,200

2,203,250
1,427,200
36,300

69,135
4,836,185

104,500
302,500
558,750
114,000
2,053,600
1,311,000
45,600

84,500
4,574,450

1/ Estimates

include all States except

Crop Production.

October 1995

AK and HI.

Agricultural Statistics Board

NASS, USDA


Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production, by TPE, State
and United States. i994 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Area Harvested : Production 1/

1994: 1995 : 1994 1994: 1995

455.0 615.0 766 500 480 726.0 615.0
AZ 312.0 364.0 1,203 1,123 1,081 782.0 820.0
AR 970.0 1,000.0 877 744 648 1,772.0 1,350.0
1,095.0 1,175.0 1,191 1,123 1,083 2,717.0 2,650.0
FL 3/ 68.0 109.0 735 691 691 104.1 157.0
GA 875.0 1,490.0 843 628 644 1,537.0 2,000.0
KS 3/ 1.2 2.0 480 408 408 1.2 1.7
LA 890.0 1,065.0 815 713 608 1,512.0 1,350.0
MS 1,270.0 1,460.0 806 661 602 2,132.0 1,830.0
MO 345.0 445.0 856 701 647 615.0 600.0
NM 50.0 51.0 720 781 762 75.0 81.0
NC 485.0 780.0 820 535 535 829.0 870.0
OK 340.0 325.0 349 325 295 247.0 200.0
sc 223.0 335.0 846 731 645 393.0 450.0
TMN 585.0 665.0 726 595 570 885.0 790.0
TX 5,150.0 5,700.0 458 438 408 4,915.0 4,850.0
VA 3/ 41.7 107.0 944 700 700 0 156.0
US :13,155.9 15,688.0 705 612 574 19,324.3  18,770.7
Amer -Pima
Z 47.9 47.5 806 788 788 0.4 78.0
CA 80.8 100.0 1.098 1,032 1,032 184.8 215.0
NM 10.7 15.0 875 800 8 19.5 25.0
TX 27.0 30.0 942 800 880 53.0 55.0
US 166.4 192.5 974 918 930 337.7 373.0
All
AL 455.0 615.0 766 500 480 726.0 615.0
AZ 359.9 411.5 1,150 1,084 1,047 862.4 898.0
AR 970.0 1,000.0 877 744 648 1,772.0 1,350.0
C 1,175.8 1,275.0 1,185 1,116 1,079 2,901.8 2,865.0
FL 3/ 68.0 109.0 735 691 691 104.1 157.0
GA 875.0 1.490.0 843 628 644 1,537.0 2,000.0
KS 3/ 1.2 2.0 480 408 408 1.2 1.7
LA 890.0 1,065.0 815 713 608 1,512.0 1,350.0
MS 1,270.0 1,460.0 806 661 602 2,132.0 1,830.0
MO 345.0 445.0 856 701 647 15.0 600.0
NM 60.7 66.0 747 785 771 94.5 106.0
NC 485.0 780.0 820 $35 $35 829.0 870.0
OK 340.0 325.0 349 325 295 247.0 200.0
SC 223.0 335.0 846 731 645 393.0 450.0
TN : 585.0 665.0 726 $95 570 885.0 790.0
TX : 5,177.0 5,730.0 461 440 411 4,968.0 4,905.0
VA 3/ 41.7 107.0 944 700 700 82.0 156.0
19,662.0 19,143.7

/ jong and to
2/  480- tb. net weight bales.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.

be ginned.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-17 NASS, USDA


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States,
1994 and Forecasted October 1, 1995
(Domestic Units)

Area Planted Area Harvested 1/

100 a 6) es
1994 1995 1994 1995
1,000 Acres

Corn t 79,158 71,308 72,917 64,682
Sorghum : 9,772 9.112 8.967 8,301
Rice : 3,353.0 3,165.0 3,316.0 3,111.0
Soybeans 2/ : 61,670 62,585 60,859 61,716
Peanuts : 1,641.0 1,565.0 1,618.5 1,524.5
Sunflower : 3,567 3,608 3,430 3,484
All Cotton 2 13,720.1 16,665.0 13,322.3 15,880.5

Upland > 13,551.6 16,470.0 13,155.9 15, 688.0

Amer -Pima : 168.5 195.0 166.4 192.5
All Hay : 58,744 60,228

Alfalfa : 24,222 24,639

All Other : 34,522 35,589
Dry Edible Beans : 2,025.8 2,049.7 1,845.2 1,907.8
Dry Edible Peas 2/ : 131.0 166.0 128.0 163.0
Austrian Winter :

Peas 2/ : 7.0 10.9 4.6 6.7
Lentils 2/ 2 180.0 148.0 178.0 143.0
Tobacco : 671.2 674.0
Sugarbeets : 1,475.8 1,449.6 1,443.0 1,428.8
Sugarcane for :

Sugar and Seed : 936.8 932.3

1/ Harvested for principal use of each crop, ie., grain, beans, etc.
2/ 1994 revised.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-3 NASS, USDA


September Weather Summary: A freeze struck the central Plains and the western

Corn Belt on September 22 and 23, prematurely ending
a difficult growing season that also featured spring wetness and flooding: a
severe but short-lived mid-July heat wave: and a month-long hot and dry spell
beginning in early to mid-August. The freeze arrived about a week ahead of
normal in the northwestern Corn Belt, but occurred more than 3 weeks early
farther south. particularly from southwestern Kansas to central Illinois. In
Kansas City, MO, a low of 31 degrees F on September 22 was their earliest freeze
on record by 9 days. Freeze damage in the affected area was most extensive to
immature sorghum and soybeans.

In the broader picture, vestiges of the extended August heat wave lingered into
the first week of September. but were soon replaced by a cooler pattern east of
the Rockies that culminated in the freeze. Meanwhile, the West warmed and
remained dry, pushing monthly temperature departures to +2 to +4 degrees F.
Despite an eastward spread of warmth across the Nation at month's end, September
temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees F below normal from northern Texas to the
Great Lakes States, and across New England.

In late September, precipitation overspread the Pacific Northwest and the
Southwest, but little or no rain fell during the month from California to the
Great Basin. Farther east. relief from extensive topsoil dryness was hit-or-
miss from mid-month onward. The heaviest rain fell in the southern Plains and
the western Corn Belt. providing beneficial moisture for fall seeding but
causing cotton-quality concerns and harvest delays, respectively. Damp weather
also caused cotton-condition declines in parts of the Southeast. Peninsular
Florida experienced several wet weeks, propelling monthly totals to 10 to

15 inches in many areas. In contrast, little rain fell in the central and
eastern Corn Belt. with monthly totals under an inch in locations such as
Springfield. IL and Ft. Wayne, IN. The Northeast--the portion of the Nation
currently most affected by long-term drought--received near-normal rainfall
during September, moistening topsoils but failing to dent long-term moisture
deficits.

The tropics played a less significant role in the Nation's weather than during
August. Nevertheless, the remnants of the eastern Pacific Hurricane Ismael
helped to spread heavy rain from southern New Mexico and western Texas to the
Middle Atlantic States at mid-month. But severe tropical impacts were confined
to the U.S. Virgin Islands (St. Thomas and St. Croix) and eastern Puerto Rico
(the islands of Culebra and Vieques), which escaped a brush with powerful
Hurricane Luis on September 5-6, but were directly hit by Hurricane Marilyn on

September 15-16.

The month's only significant snowstorm struck the central Plains on September
20-21 as cold air poured southward. A 7.4-inch snowfall in Denver, CO damaged
still-foliated trees, while September-record single-day totals fell in Casper,
WY (6.9 inches) and Goodland, KS (5.8 inches). Earliest-measurable-snowfall
records were broken by 9 days in Grand Island, NE and by 17 days in Dodge City.
KS. At the same time, late-season warmth peaked in interior Alaska, boosting
monthly temperature departures to +4 to +7 degrees F. In Bethel. AK, the
monthly average temperature of 50.2 degrees F was 5.0 degrees F above normal and
tied their 1924 September record. In addition, heavy precipitation soaked
southern Alaska. where Kodiak measured more than 19 inches during the month.

General Crop Comments: September started with rain and cooler weather that was

welcomed after the summer heat-wave. Hot, dry weather
matured corn rapidly but left development behind normal for other late-planted
crops. An early killing freeze in late September brought the growing season to
an end for late-planted soybeans and sorghum in the western and central Corn

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-3 NASS, USDA


Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield,

and United States.

and Production by Class, TeBE- State,
1994 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Production

Class 1, Flue-Cured
Type 11, Old Belts

VA

US
Type 12, Eastern NC
Belt

NC
Type 13, NC Border &
SC Belt

SC
US
Type 14, GA-FL Belt
L
GA
Us
Total 11-14

Class 2, Fire-Cured
Type 21, VA Belt

Type 22, Eastern
istrict

N

US
Type 23, Western
District
KY
TN
US
Total 21-23
Class 3, Air-Cured
Class 3A. Light

Air-Cured
Type 31. Burley

S
Type 32, Southern MO
Belt

MD
PA

us
Total 31-32

43.500

3,900
630

4,530
18,080

RO ~~
ANE EH wOOwWUN
wooouNnuSdH
Seeosoocea
Seocesocca

nn
a

34,000
50,000
84,000

7,000
42,000
49,000

385,000

1,100

ANOMOM@ONWNA
DOSOWH NON
2000S0000
Se00so000

NEE MMNYNVNND
WWE RE
QYONDEDOU
SaaAnsSsosa

.900 180,560 144,400
2,050 82,280 69,700
1,946 262,840 214,100

1,750 330.775 248,500

1,750 70,950 59,500
2,150 108.100 107,500
1,988 179,050 167,000
2,400 ig. §75 16,800
2,000 80.66
2,057 97,23
1,897 69:90

wnox
lonae
ona

8

1,350 2,403 1,485

Crop Production
October 1995

A-26

2,400 10.906 8,880
2,400 20,817 18,720
2,400 31,723 27,600
2,700 12.441 9,720
2,500 1,764 1,475
2,672 14,205 11,195
2,399 48.331 40,280
2,120 15.265 13,780
2,100 420.000 340,200
2,100 8,015 5,670
1,600 17,548 12.960
1,950 18,360 16,185
1,750 108.375 84,000
1,650 21,285 14,850
1,700 3,550 3.40
1,991 612,398 491,045
1,350 12,750 11,475
1,900 7,020 6.460
1,507 19.770 17,935
1,969 632,168 508,980

-- continued

Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA


Cotton Down 6 Percent From Last Month

All cotton production declined to 19.1 million bales, down 6 percent from Yast
month and 3 percent below 1994. Continued damage from insects and dry
conditions in most portions of the cotton belt lowered yield potential. Heavy
rains and unseasonably cool temperatures during September also diminished
Prospects in West Texas. Yields are down 129 pounds from last year’s record
high and down 36 pounds from one month earlier. Any effects from hurricane Opal
occurred after the data collection period for this month and are not reflected
in this report.

All orange production for 1995-96 is expected to be the second largest crop on
record, at 11.7 million tons, up slightly from last season. Florida production
amounts to 202 million boxes (9.09 million tons), 2 percent below last season
but 16 percent above two years ago. This output will rank as the third largest
crop on record. Early and mid-season varieties are expected to produce a record
high 122 million boxes (5.49 million tons), 2 percent above last year. The
Valencia forecast is 80.0 million boxes (3.60 million tons), 7 percent below a
year ago. California all orange production is set at 66.0 million boxes

(2.48 million tons). 8 percent more than last season. The Navel orange forecast
was unchanged from September at 38.0 million boxes (1.43 million tons), up

9 percent from 35.0 million boxes, a year ago. The initial California Valencia
forecast is 28.0 million boxes (1.05 million tons), 8 percent more than last
year.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice yield for the 1995-96 season is
forecast at 1.54 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast projects
the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The
final 1994-95 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.50 gallons per box at
42.0 degrees Brix.

This report was approved on October 11, 1995, by the Acting Secretary of
Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Agricultural
Statistics Board.

fet Ve

Agricultural Statistics Board

Agriculture Chairperson
Richard £. Rominger Rich Allen
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 A-2 NASS, USDA


Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted

between September 22 and October 2 to gather information on
expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, soybeans.
and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for
at least 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were
re-visited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots
depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of
plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to
forecast the number of ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are
used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological
yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net
yield. The plots are re-visited each month until crop maturity when the fruit
is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample
field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of
mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 21,000 producers were interviewed
during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

Estimating Procedures: National, regional, and State level objective yield and
grower reported survey estimates were reviewed for
errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey
data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared
to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits
their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics
Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the
published October 1 forecast.

Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead

a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing
season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a balance
sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production. exports, processing.
feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships
warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast
is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed
since the last estimate.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1

production forecasts, the “Root Mean Square Error,” a statistical
measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the
October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a
percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations
for the 1975-1994 20-year period is computed then the square root of the average
becomes statistically the “Root Mean Square Error.” Probability statements can
be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year’s
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the “Root Mean Square Error” for the October 1 corn for grain
production forecast is 4.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-15 NASS, USDA


Hazelnuts: Utilized Production by State and United States,
1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Utilized Production

1994 1995

— Tons (In-shell Basis)
OR 40,800 21,000 37,900
WA 1/ : 200 100 100
US ; 41,000 21,100 38,000

1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1994-95

Area Fresh Production

Month : Total in Crop Harvested

-- 1,000 Pounds --

Aug : 3,250 3,765 2,145 2,340 4,805 3,245
Sep : 3,250 3,745 2,125 2.330 4,200 2,730
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 A-34 NASS, USDA


October 1. All of the California crop was in fair to good condition on the
same date. Harvest progress, at 2 percent. was slightly behind the 5-year
average of 4 percent. Cotton objective yield counts show Arizona and California
large boll count at their lowest since 1985. Boll weights in both states are
also their lowest in the past 10 years. Small bolls in Arizona ranked fifth but
ranked tenth in California for the ten year period.

In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia. North Carolina, and South
Carolina), the crop was in fair to good condition in early October. Georgia
improved 10 points during September as early yields proved better than expected.
Except for South Carolina, boll opening exceeded the 5-year average in the
region. Harvest in Alabama and Georgia exceeded the average pace at 27 percent
and 26 percent respectively. These conditions do not reflect any effects on the
crop by Hurricane Opal as it passed through the region after the time frame for
crop observations.

American-Pima production is forecast at 373,000 bales, up 5,000 bales from
September and up 10 percent from 1994. Yields. at 930 pounds per acre, are down
44 pounds from last year. The California crop is rated fair to good as
seasonably hot weather during September aided development. Limited defoliation
began late in the month, Ginning began in the Winter Garden area, and harvest
in the Trans-Pecos area will begin soon.

All cotton ginnings totaled 2.455.400 running bales prior to October 1,
compared with 2.324.000 running bales ginned to the same date last year and
1,845,950 running bales in 1993.

All Hay: Production for 1995 is forecast at 157 million tons, virtually
unchanged from the August 1 forecast and up 5 percent from 1994. All

hay yields are expected to average 2.61 tons per acre, a slight increase from a

year ago. Acreage harvested, at 60.2 million acres, is unchanged from

August 1 and 3 percent above last year. The largest increase in production from

a year ago is in Wyoming, 47 percent above 1994. The largest decrease is in

Alabama, 25 percent below the previous year.

Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Alfalfa hay production, at 85.9 million tons, is
down fractionally from the quantity expected
August 1 but 6 percent above the 1994 total. Area for harvest, at 24.6 million
acres, is up 2 percent from a year ago. Average yield, forecast at 3.49 tons
per acre, is up 0.13 of a ton from the previous year. Increased acreage and
higher yields contributed to a higher level of production than a year ago.

All Other Hay: Production of all other hay is forecast at 71.1 million tons,

down fractionally from the August 1 forecast and 3 percent above
a year ago. Area for harvest, at 35.6 million acres, iS up 3 percent from last
year. Yield per acre is expected to average 2.00 tons. virtually unchanged from
the 1994 yield.

Dry Edible Beans: Production of dry beans is forecast at 30.6 million cwt,

5 percent below the August 1 forecast but 5 percent above
1994. Harvest area is estimated at 1.91 million acres. 3 percent above a year
ago and 18 percent above two years ago. Yield, at 1,603 pounds per acre, is
46 pounds below the August 1 forecast but 21 pounds above last year.

Late planting and late development of this year’s dry bean crop pushed harvest
progress 2-3 weeks behind normal across much of the country. Hard freezes hit

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 B-8 NASS, USDA


Grapes: Total Production by Crop. State, and United States,
1993-94 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

BSS 6
1993 1994 1995
Tons
Grapes (Table Type) 1/
CA : 632,000 602,000 640,000
Grapes (Wine Type) 1/ :
CA : 2,397,000 2,265,000 2,200,000
Grapes (Raisin Type) 1/ 2/
CA i 2,354,000 2,386,000 2,250,000
All Grapes :
AZ 1/ : 24,000 26,000 25,000
AR 1/ : 8.000 6,000 8,000
CA 1/ : 5,383,000 5,253,000 5,090,000
GA 1/ : 3.600 3,200 3.400
MI : 55.000 65,000 72,000
MO 1/ : 2,350 2,600 2,600
NY : 118.000 190,000 175,000
NC 1/ : 1,500 1,500 1,800
OH 1/ : 6,800 7,000 9.200
OR 1/ : 12,300 10,800 11,000
PA : 54,000 80.000 70,000
sc 1/ : 600 500 500
WA : 354,000 225,000 308,000
US > 6,023,150 5,870,600 _ 5,776,500
1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.
2/ Fresh basis.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 A-29 NASS, USDA



Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by State
and United States. 1994 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production
State : 1995
1994 1/: 1995 : 1994 1/ :------------------- 1994 1/ 1995
: Sep 1 Oct 1

: - 1,000 Acres -  — ------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels ---
AL : 295 220 31.0 25.0 25.0 9,145 5,500
AR > 3,400 3,300 34.0 30.0 28.0 115,600 92,400
DE : 220 230 36.5 29.0 22.0 8.030 5.060
FL 2/ : 42 28 31.0 32.0 32.0 1,302 896
GA : 500 320 31.0 24.0 24.0 15,500 7,680
Ik : 9,430 9,650 45.5 41.0 40.0 429,065 386,000
IN 4,580 5,180 47.0 44.0 40.0 215,260 207,200
IA 8.770 9.150 50.5 44.0 43.0 442,885 393,450
KS 2,100 2.050 35.0 30.0 26.0 73,500 53,300
KY 1,130 1,080 37.5 37.0 34.0 42,375 36.720
LA : 1,120 1,030 28.5 30.0 25.0 31,920 25,750
MO : 550 540 35.5 33.0 28.0 19,525 15,120
MT > 1,540 1,490 37.0 39.0 39.0 56,980 58,110
MN 5.600 5,900 40.0 38.0 38.0 224,000 224,200
MS 1,870 1,900 30.5 28.0 25.0 57,035 47,500
MO 4,560 4,700 38.0 31.0 30.0 173,280 141,000
NE : 2,860 2,960 47.0 34.0 31.0 134,420 91,760
NJ 2/ : 147 118 34.5 40.0 40.0 5,072 4,720
NC : 1,350 1,050 31.0 23.0 23.0 41,850 24,150
ND : 610 630 31.0 25.0 27.0 18.910 17,010
OH : 3,990 4,080 43.5 42.0 41.0 173,565 167,280
OK 2/ 290 285 32.0 27.0 27.0 9,280 7,695
PA 2/_: 315 315 42.0 44.0 44.0 13,230 13,860
sc : 580 530 27.0 24.0 24.0 15,660 12,720
SD : 2,400 2,400 38.0 28.0 27.0 91,200 64,800
TN > 1,050 1,080 36.5 33.0 31.0 38,325 33,480
1X : 210 210 33.5 28.0 27.0 7,035 5,670
VA : 520 490 32.0 27.0 27.0 16.640 13,230
WI : 830 800 43.5 43.0 43.0 36,105 34,400
us : 60,859 61,716 41.4 37.0 35.5 2.516.694 2,190,661
1/ Revised.

2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-13 NASS, USDA


the current production forecast of 7.54 billion bushels will not be above or
below the final estimate by more than 4.4 percent or approximately 332 million
bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 7.6 percent or approximately 573 million bushels.

Also shown in the following table is a 10-year record for selected crops of the
differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn
again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final
estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 249 million bushels, ranging
from 5 million to 618 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below
the final estimate 6 times and above 4 times. This does not imply that the
October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final
production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below
or above the final estimate is about equally distributed.

Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts

10-year Record Of
Differences Between Forecast
and Final Estimate

Crop and :
Unit :Percent:

Quantity

:Below: Above

:Percent: Quant: : :
: : Mt : Max.:Final:Final

Feed Grains 1/ Mt:

4.2 7.3 0 20 7 3
Corn For Grain Bu: 4.4 7.6 5 618 6 4
Sorghum For Grain Bu: 5.7 9.8 7 105 6 4

Rice Cwt: 3.2 5.6 1 13°07 3
Soybeans For :

Beans Bu: 3.9 6.8 149 50 2 103.05 5
Cotton Bales 2/: 4.5 7 1,493 537 31 1,424 § 4
Dry Edible : nt

Beans Cwt : 3.8 6.6 2:: 0.7 0 1.3 6 4
1/ Corn for grain, sorghum for grain, oats, and barley.

2/ Quantity is in thousands of bales.
Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 B-16 NASS, USDA



Report Features

The next “Crop Production” report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on
November 9, 1995.

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National
Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information.

C. Ray Halley. Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops Section

Bill Dowdy, Head (202) 720-3843
Dan Kerestes - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Rice (202) 720-9526
Greg Preston - Sugar Crops. Tobacco. Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621
Vaughn Siegenthaler - Rye, Sorghum, Wheat (202) 720-8068
Charles Van Lahr - Barley, Corn, Oats (202) 720-7369

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section

Stephen Ropel, Head (202) 720-3843
Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Dry Beans. Onions (202) 720-4285
Roger Latham - Cotton, Hay (202) 720-5944
Linda McMillan - Nuts, Grapes (202) 720-4215
Dave Mueller - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-2157
Blair Smith - Citrus. Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412
Barbara Soltes - Noncitrus Fruits. Peanuts (202) 720-7688

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board

October 1995 B-18 NASS, USDA



Sunflower: Area Planted, by Varietal Type,
State, and United States, 1994

State 0 fecene eee ee eee ee eee eect eens
011 Non-041 AN
1,000 Acres
co : 72 28 100
KS : 200 60 260
AN : 390 110 500
NE : 47 28 75
ND : 1,350 240 1,590
sp : 915 25 940
1X : 21 13 34
Oth Sts : 46 22 68
us 3,041 526 3,567

Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield. and Production, by State
and United States, 1994 and Forecasted October 1, 1995

Area Harvested Production 1/

1994: 1995 : 1994 :-----2--2e2---- eee : 1994: 1995

1,000 Acres ---- 1,000 Pounds ---

AL : 222.0 214.0 2,010 2,200 2,300 446,220 492,200
FL : 84.0 80.0 2,470 2,600 2,600 207,480 208,000
GA : 649.0 595.0 2,870 2,300 2.200 1,862,630 1.309,000
NM i 21.0 20.0 2,460 2,300 2,300 51,660 46,000
NC : 151.0 144.0 3,215 2,400 2,400 485,465 345,600
OK : 100.0 100.0 2,610 2,600 2,600 261.000 260.000
sc : 12.5 12.5 2.900 2,600 2,600 36,250 32,500
TX : 287.0 270.0 2,110 2,300 2,300 605,570 621,000
0 89.0 3,165 2,300 2,200 291,180 195,800

VA : 92.

us 2,333 2.302 4,247,455 3,510,100

1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts.

Crop Production Agricultural Statistics Board
October 1995 A-16 NASS, USDA