### Appendix H

REVISED Proposed Revision to the Pesticide Element of the 1994 Ozone SIP for the Ventura County Nonattainment Area

(August 13, 2007)(This page intentionally left blank.)August 13, 2007 Appen dix H – Revised 1 REVISED Proposed Revision to the Pesticide El ement of the 1994 Ozone SIP for the Ventura County Nonattainment Area

In the 1994 Ozone SIP, the Department of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) committed to obtain Reactive Organic Gas (ROG) emission reductions from pesticides in the five 1-hour ozone nonattain ment areas. For the Ventura County nonattainment area (Ventura), the ta rget was a 20 percent ROG emission reduction from the 1990 base year emissions by 2005 (see 62 Federal Register 1169-1170; January 8, 1997).

In all nonattainment areas, DPR’s proposed fumigant regulations will achieve all of the ROG reductions from pesticides t hat are required by the 1994 Ozone SIP. DPR’s proposed regulation expects to ac hieve all the reductions in 2008. Reductions will be achieved by instituting a regulatory cap on pesticide emissions and placing annual limits on fumigant emi ssions to ensure the overall pesticide emission cap is not exceeded. The meas ures include changing to application

methods with lower emissions. Monitori ng studies demonstrat e that emissions differ between methods of applications. Emissions can be significantly reduced through tarping, irrigating after applicati ons, or applying through drip irrigation systems. Changing to thes e applications can provi de a feasible means for meeting the overall emission limits for fu migants. Quantifying the difference in

emission rates associated with different fumigant application methods also

accounts for the revisions to earlier estimates of pesticide ROG emissions, including revisions to the baseline es timates. Widescale adoption of low emission practices will assist in meeti ng the pesticide emission cap, but will not likely meet the entire dem and. The measures anticipate a mechanism to allocate, track and oversee fumigant emissions.

Land use changes in Ventura have created di fficulties in meeting the fumigant cap in the proposed 2008 Pesticide Plan. Overall pesticide ROG emissions, and fumigant emissions in particular, have incr eased over the last several years in

the Ventura nonattainment area, from approximately 3.3 tpd in 1991 to an estimated 4.8 tpd in 2004. Fumigants repr esent 80-90% of the overall pesticide

emissions in Ventura. The increased emissions are due to changes in Ventura cropping patterns. Crops that require annual fumigation are replacing crops that require minimal fumigation. For example, fumigant use for strawberries accounts for most of the pesticide ROG emissions in the Ventura nonattainment area, and strawberry acreage has increased from 4,500 acres in 1996 to 10,300 acres in 2004 (McPhail 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006; Figure 1). Smaller acreage increases occurred for raspberries and fres h market tomatoes that require annual fumigation. The increased strawberry, raspberry, and tomato acreage coincides with a decrease in acreage for crops that re quire less fumigation, such as citrus (grapefruit, lemon, orange) and most v egetables (broccoli, cabbage, carrot, cauliflower, celery, lettuce, parsley, sp inach). Under the proposed measures, Ventura would be required to reduce its pesticide emissions in 2008 by 46%August 13, 2007 Appen dix H – Revised 2 (2.2 tpd) based on 2004. Adoption of Be st Available Contro l Technology (BACT) will not allow all of the planted acres to remain economically viable and to meet pesticide emission cap.

Figure 1
Trends of harvested acres in Ventura

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

YearHarvested Acres Citrus

Raspberries

Strawberries

Vegetables

Tomatoes

DPR estimates that approximately 83% of the fumigant emissions in the Ventura nonattainment area come from applications that already employ Best Available Control Technology (BACT), such as ta rping, intermittent irrigation following fumigation, or application using drip i rrigation systems (Barry, et al. 2007). Comments received on the proposed regulat ions indicate that BACT adoption may be greater than currently estimat ed. However, even if all fumigant applications adopted BACT, an additional 34% (1.3 tpd) fumigant emission

reduction from 2008 levels would be needed to achieve the overall pesticide SIP

commitment. To achieve this reducti on, growers and applic ators will need to employ some combination of acreage reduction, application rate reduction, and shifting applications outside the May – October window. The likely scenario

would be that land would not remain in agricultural production. DPR estimates that 5,800 – 7,500 acres would be lost if the 1.3 tpd ROG reduction is achieved solely through acreage reduction (Spurlock 2007).

A draft analysis of the proposed regulati ons predicts that most growers will reduce fumigant application rates to achieve the needed ROG reductions in Ventura, with the fumigat ed area reduced by several hundred acres (Goodhue, et al. 2007). The reduced application rates w ould cause a decrease in yields, with the most likely scenario leading to a lo ss of $11 million, and a maximum loss ofAugust 13, 2007 Appen dix H – Revised 3 $31 million. Separate analyses by ARB (Dean 2007) and the California Strawberry Commission (Mura i 2007) estimated losses of up to $80 million and $286 million, respectively, bas ed on a 10,000 acres reduction.

In the short term, the loss of these high value crops would likely have a negative economic impact on the farm economy and farm employment in Ventura. Growers would be expected to recuperate that loss by converting the land to other uses. Although it is unknown what the new uses would be, a reasonable possibility is that a significant numberof acres would be converted to nonagricultural uses (such as housing developm ents). The conversion of agricultural land to other uses would likely result in various adverse environmental impacts,
the extent of which cannot be analyzed at this time.

An extensive amount of research is being conducted by federal and state agencies as well as commodity groups on ways to reduce pesticide emissions.
ARB has funded some of t hese approaches. With the enactment of the 2007-08 budget, DPR will restore its Pest Management Alliance gr ant program that funds pesticide use reduction programs. These efforts will lead to improved BACT but

not in time for the 2008 season. DPR expects that, as fu rther research is completed over the next few years, the ability for growers in Ventura County to further reduce pesticide emissi ons will also increase.

To avoid the potential impacts described above, ARB proposes to revise the
Pesticide Element of the 1994 Ozone SIP fo r Ventura only. This SIP revision

would substitute emission reductions from other sources of ROG for a portion of

the emission reductions committed to in the 1994 SIP for pesticides. There would be no “backsliding” from the over all 1994 SIP commitments for Ventura,

because all the ROG emission reductions committed to in the 1994 SIP would still be achieved. What would change is t he source of the emission reductions – a portion of the ROG reductions for Vent ura would come from other emission sources instead of pesticides.

ARB staff has calculated the amount of ROG emission reductions that have been

achieved in Ventura since 1994. This analysis shows that all of the ROG reductions committed to (except for thos e anticipated to come from pesticides) have already been achieved in Ventura County (Table 1). Plus, between 2005 and 2008, an additional 1.9 tpd of ROG r eductions will be achieved from California’s on-going mobile source and consumer product emission control program (Table 2), beyond the reductions committed to in the 1994 SIP.August 13, 2007 Appen dix H – Revised 4 Table 1 2008 Emission Reductions Compared to

1994 SIP Emission Reduction Commitment in Ventura County APCD*

Emission Reduction Commitment** 4.11

Enhanced Vehicle Inspection and

Maintenance 0.98

On-Road Measures 1.08

Off-Road Measures 0.90

Consumer Product Measures 1.16

Total 1994 SIP New Measure Emission

Reductions Achieved 4.11

* All emissions are reported in the 1994 SIP emission inventory currency. Does not include DPR, or local (stationary or area-wide) commitments

** Commitment for Emission Reductions in 2005.

Table 2
Decline in ROG Emissions from California’s On-going Mobile Source and Consumer Product Emission Control Program*

2005 2008 Change

On-road Emissions 11.4 9.0 2.4

Off-road Emissions 4.0 4.1 -0.1

Consumer Product Emissions 5.7 6.1 -0.4

Total 21.1 19.3 1.9

* Does not include pesticide emissions, or local (stationary or area-wide) emissions under the jurisdiction of the Ventura County Air Pollution Control District. Does not include benefits of new measure commitments identified in Table 1, above. All emissions are reported in the 1994 SIP emission inventory currency.

Notes: ARB did not have emission reduction commitments beyond 2005 in Ventura County. As such, all declines in baseline achieved through California's on-going mobile source control program are surplus to the emission reduction commitments in the 1994 SIP for Ventura County.

ARB staff’s May 7, 2007 Proposed State Strategy proposed to revise the 1994 Ozone SIP to substitute 1.0 tpd of ROG emission reductions from California’s ongoing mobile source emission control pr ogram for 1.0 tpd of the ROG emission reductions committed to for pesticides in the 1994 Ozone SIP in Ventura County

in 2008.August 13, 2007 Appen dix H – Revised 5 ARB received written comments and heard testimony at its June 22, 2007 public meeting on the St ate Strategy expressing co ncern about the impact the additional pesticide emissions coul d have on ozone formation, and about the

toxic air contaminants that would result from the continued use of fumigants. ARB also heard testimony that failure to provide substitute emissions for the entire shortfall – estimated by industry repr esentatives at 1.9 t pd -- would result in adverse economic impacts for strawberry farmers, and could force some fields out of production.

Potential Impacts on 8-hour Ozone Planning in Ventura County

Ventura County is designated as nonattain ment for the federal 8-hour ozone standard, classified as a “moderate” nona ttainment area with an attainment date of June 15, 2010. Effectively this means Ventura must attain the standard in 2009, since nonattainment areas must s how attainment for a complete ozone season prior to the attainment date, and the ozone season in California is year round. Because a 2009 attainment requi rement allows li ttle time for the implementation of new controls to oz one-forming emissions, attainment by 2009 is largely dependent on reductions from t he existing control pr ogram. Preliminary photochemical modeling results indicate that Ventura will not attain the standard
in 2009. Ventura District staff has indica ted that they may recommend that their Board request reclassification as a “ser ious” ozone nonattainment area. Such a “bump up” would give t he area a June 15, 2013 atta inment deadline and would require attainment in 2012.

The photochemical modeling indicates t hat ozone formation in Ventura responds
to both NOx and ROG reductions. ARB sta ff’s estimates indicate that Ventura needs NOx reductions of approximately 16 tons per day (tpd) and ROG reductions of 7 tpd in order to attain the standard in 2012. Existing State and

local controls will reduce emissions by approximately 11 tpd NOx and 6 tpd ROG by 2012. The measures in the proposed St ate Strategy will pr ovide an additional 5 tpd NOx and 1 tpd ROG. Since Ventura is impacted by air pollution transport from the South Coast, Ventura’s air qua lity will also benefit from emission

reductions in the South Coast Air Basi n. As mentioned previously, 80 to 90 percent of the pesticides applied in V entura County are fumigants. Nearly half of the fumigants applied are methyl br omide, and methyl bromide is a low reactivity ROG (Carter, et al. 2007). Given these emission reductions and the low reactive nature of methyl bromide, preliminary analysis still shows a very
close attainment demonstration for 2012.

ARB staff is revising its ROG substitu tion proposal for Ventura County, as described below, in light of the reduc tions needed to ensure expeditious
attainment of the federal 8-hour ozone standard, and in light of the comments received in response to the original proposal.August 13, 2007 Appen dix H – Revised 6 1) In the May 7, 2007 proposal, staff recommended the substitution of 1.0 tpd ROG reductions. Staff is now recommending that ARB provide 1.3 TPD in 2008, reflecting updated DPR estimates of t he ROG emission reduction shortfall.

2) In the May 7, 2007 proposal, staff di d not identify an end-date for the use of

substitute ROG emissions. Staff is now recommending a phase-down that provides 1.3 tpd of ROG reductions starti ng in 2008, declining to zero by 2012. This will provide DPR with the time necessa ry to identify and construct additional pesticide measures to achieve the rema ining necessary reductions, and will help ensure that reductions are in place by the 2012 “serious” area attainment deadline. The proposed ROG substitution schedule shown below reflects this phase-out.

Table 3 Proposed Commitment for Surplus Emission Reductions

Used to Meet the 1994 Pesticide SIP Commitment

Year ROG (tons per day)

2008 1.3

2009 1.0

2010 0.6

2011 0.3

2012 0.0

This proposed revision will ensure that all of the pesticide reductions required

under the 1994 SIP commitment will be achieved, by 2012, as a result of the pesticide use and application controls included in the proposed 2007 State Strategy.August 13, 2007 Appen dix H – Revised 7 References

Barry, T., F. Spurlock, and R. Sega wa. 2007. Pesticide Volatile Organic Compound Emission Adjustments for Fiel d Conditions and Estimated Volatile Organic Compound Reductions – Initial Estimates. Memorandum to John Sanders, April 6, 2007. California D epartment of Pesticide Regulation.

Carter, W. P.L., and I.L Malkina, 2007. Investigation of Atmospheric Ozone Impacts of Selected Pesticides. Report to the California Air Resource Board.

Dean, B. 2007. Consultation on Draft R egulations on Fumigants. Memorandum to Linda Irokawa-Otani, April 18, 2007. California Air Resources Board.

Goodhue. R.E., R.E. Howitt and P.H. Howard. 2007. Ef fects of 2007 Proposed Fumigant Use Regulations on Sacrament o Valley, San Joaquin Valley, and Ventura County Agriculture, Draft Report, June 28, 2007. Report to the California Department of Food and Agriculture. Univer sity of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

McPhail, W.E. 1997. Annual Crop R eport, 1996, October 15, 1997. Ventura County Agricultural Commissioner.

McPhail, W.E. 1999. Annual Crop Repor t, 1998, September, 23, 1999. Ventura County Agricultural Commissioner.

McPhail, W.E. 2001. Annual Crop R eport, 2000, August 2001. Ventura County Agricultural Commissioner.

McPhail, W.E. 2003. Annual Crop Repor t, 2002, July 15, 2003. Ventura County Agricultural Commissioner.

McPhail, W.E. 2006. Annual Crop Repor t, 2005, July 5, 2006. Ventura County Agricultural Commissioner.

Murai, M. 2007. Comments on the 2007 SI P – Appendix H, June 20, 2007. Letter to Robert Sawyer, California Air Res ources Board. California Strawberry

Commission.

Spurlock, F. 2007. Ventura County Acr eage Reduction Estimates. Memorandum to Randy Segawa, August 2, 2007. Ca lifornia Department of Pesticide Regulation.