Preliminary Research and Development

Roadmap for Protecting and Assuring

Critical National Infrastructures

Transition Office of the President’s Commission

on Critical Infrastructure Protection

and the Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office

July 1998

Government Services

Emergency Services

Transportation

Information &

Communications

Water Supply

Banking & Finance

Electric Power

Oil & Gas Production and Storage
ii
iii

Contents

Preface............................................................................................................................ vii

Study Team..................................................................................................................... ix

Acknowledgments........................................................................................................... xi

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ xiii

Section 1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 1-1

1.1 Purpose.............................................................................................................. 1-1

1.2 Scope of the R&D Study................................................................................... 1-2

1.3 Sector Study Teams........................................................................................... 1-3

1.4 Study Approach................................................................................................. 1-4

1.5 Report Organization.......................................................................................... 1-5

Section 2 Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps .............................................................. 2-1

2.1 Banking and Finance......................................................................................... 2-1

2.1.1 Infrastructure Overview........................................................................ 2-1

2.1.2 Issues and Trends ................................................................................. 2-1

2.1.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities .................................................................. 2-2

2.1.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps............................................ 2-3

2.2 Energy ............................................................................................................... 2-5

2.2.1 Infrastructure Overview........................................................................ 2-5

2.2.2 Issues and Trends ................................................................................. 2-5

2.2.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities .................................................................. 2-6

2.2.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps............................................ 2-7

2.3 Information and Communications.....................................................................2-14

2.3.1 Infrastructure Overview........................................................................2-14

2.3.2 Issues and Trends .................................................................................2-14

2.3.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities ..................................................................2-15

2.3.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps............................................2-16

2.4 Transportation ...................................................................................................2-20

2.4.1 Infrastructure Overview........................................................................2-20

2.4.2 Issues and Trends .................................................................................2-20

2.4.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities ..................................................................2-21

2.4.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps............................................2-21
Contents

iv

Contents (Cont.)

2.5 Vital Human Services .......................................................................................2-25

2.5.1 Infrastructure Overview........................................................................2-25

2.5.2 Issues and Trends .................................................................................2-25

2.5.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities ..................................................................2-25

2.5.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps............................................2-26

Section 3 Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps......................................................... 3-1

3.1 Common R&D Themes .................................................................................... 3-1

3.1.1 Information Assurance ......................................................................... 3-2

3.1.2 Monitoring and Detection .................................................................... 3-2

3.1.3 Protection and Mitigation..................................................................... 3-2

3.1.4 Response and Recovery........................................................................ 3-2

3.1.5 Modeling and Simulation ..................................................................... 3-5

3.1.6 Systems Analysis.................................................................................. 3-5

3.1.7 Decision Support .................................................................................. 3-5

3.1.8 Risk Management................................................................................. 3-5

3.1.9 Vulnerability Assessment..................................................................... 3-6

3.2 Crosscutting R&D............................................................................................. 3-6

3.3 Interdependency and Complexity R&D ............................................................ 3-8

3.4 Integrated Roadmap ..........................................................................................3-10

3.5 Resource Requirements.....................................................................................3-13

Section 4 Next Steps ..................................................................................................... 4-1

4.1 Essential Elements of Information for Future Roadmapping............................ 4-1

4.2 Portfolio Considerations ................................................................................... 4-2

4.3 Policy Considerations........................................................................................ 4-2

4.4 Technology Transfer Considerations ................................................................ 4-3

4.5 Interdependency and Complexity Considerations............................................. 4-3

4.6 Other Ingredients for a Successful R&D Program............................................ 4-4

Section 5 Subject-matter Experts and Reviewers ......................................................... 5-1

Tabs

Tab A Preliminary Research and Development Roadmap for Protecting

and Assuring the Banking and Finance Infrastructure..................................... A-1

Tab B Preliminary Research and Development Roadmap for Protecting

and Assuring the Energy Infrastructure ........................................................... B-1
Contents

v

Tabs (Cont.)

Tab C Preliminary Research and Development Roadmap for Protecting

and Assuring the Information and Communications Infrastructure................. C-1

Tab D Preliminary Research and Development Roadmap for Protecting

and Assuring the Transportation Infrastructure ............................................... D-1

Tab E Preliminary Research and Development Roadmap for Protecting

and Assuring the Vital Human Services Infrastructure ................................... E-1

Tables

1.1 Research Categories .............................................................................................. 1-2

1.2 Roadmapping Information .................................................................................... 1-5

2.1 Summary of Banking and Finance R&D Topics and Roadmaps .......................... 2-4

2.2 Summary of Energy R&D Topics and Roadmaps................................................. 2-8

2.3 Summary of Information and Communications R&D Topics and Roadmaps......2-17

2.4 Summary of Transportation R&D Topics and Roadmaps ....................................2-22

2.5 Summary of Vital Human Services R&D Topics and Roadmaps.........................2-27

3.1 Common R&D Themes......................................................................................... 3-1

3.2 Mapping among R&D Topics and Primary and Secondary Themes .................... 3-3

3.3 Summary of Interdependency and Complexity R&D Topics and Roadmaps.......3-11

3.4 Estimated Annual Infrastructure Assurance Resource Requirements

for Recommended R&D Topics............................................................................3-13
Contents

vi

Figures

1.1 Government and Private-sector Partnership for Meeting

Infrastructure Assurance Objectives...................................................................... 1-3

1.2 Structure of the Sector Study Teams..................................................................... 1-4

3.1 Crosscutting R&D................................................................................................. 3-6

3.2 Integrated R&D Roadmap.....................................................................................3-12

3.3 Near-term Resource Requirements by Theme ......................................................3-14

4.1 Essential Elements of Information for R&D Roadmapping.................................. 4-1
vii

Preface

Developing a robust and harmonized national research and development plan that

comprehensively addresses critical infrastructure assurance needs is a complex challenge.

This report is intended to be a first step in helping to meet that challenge. The information

presented was developed by study teams composed of individuals from government, the

private sector, academia and research institutes, and the Department of Energy national

laboratory system. The contributions by these individuals were voluntary, reflecting a

strong commitment to this roadmapping activity and a recognition of its importance to the

nation.

The study teams addressed five infrastructure sectors: banking and finance, energy

(electric power, natural gas, oil), information and communications, transportation, and

vital human services (water supply systems, emergency services, government services).

This report highlights the results of the work in each of those sectors.

It should be noted that the majority of the work by the study teams was completed

prior to the release of Presidential Decision Directive 63 — Critical Infrastructure

Protection — in May 1998 and the establishment by the Office of Science and

Technology Policy of a Critical Infrastructure Protection Research and Development

Interagency Working Group.

The study teams recognize that hard work remains to be done. The magnitude and

complexity of the R&D question being considered make detailed planning and consensus

difficult. It is the hope of the teams that the information presented is viewed in the

positive spirit in which it is intended, and that it provides a basis for constructive debate

and a foundation for the next steps in developing a viable infrastructure assurance R&D

plan.
Preface

viii
ix

Study Team

Study Team Directors

John C. Davis, Commissioner — National Security Agency

David A. Jones, Commissioner — Department of Energy

Study Team Coordinator

Paula L. Scalingi — Argonne National Laboratory

Sector Study Team Members

Banking and Finance

Kawika Daguio — American Bankers Association

Peter H. Daly, Commissioner — Department of the Treasury

Judy Moore — Sandia National Laboratories

Anthony G. Oettinger — Harvard University

Coordinator: Thomas Baines — Argonne National Laboratory

Energy

Fernando L. Alvarado — University of Wisconsin–Madison

William M. Burnett — Gas Research Institute

Stephen Gehl — Electric Power Research Institute

Jean-Michel Guldmann — Ohio State University

David A. Jones, Commissioner — Department of Energy

Landis D. Kannberg — Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Coordinators: William A. Buehring and Ronald E. Fisher — Argonne

National Laboratory

Information and Communications

Guy Copeland — Computer Science Corporation

Douglas L. Mansur — Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Terry Mayfield — Institute for Defense Analyses

Irwin M. Pikus, Commissioner — Department of Commerce

Coordinator: Craig Swietlik — Argonne National Laboratory
Study Team

x

Transportation

E. Fenton Carey — Department of Transportation

Steven R. Ditmeyer — Federal Railroad Administration

Bruce E. Peterson — Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Joseph L. Schofer — Northwestern University

Coordinator: Christopher L. Saricks — Argonne National Laboratory

Vital Human Services

Stephen W. Clark — Environmental Protection Agency

Joseph H. Keller — Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory

Robert L. Sherwood — IIT Research Institute

Richard A. Swanson — Computer Science Corporation

Kevin Tonat — Department of Health and Human Services

Coordinator: Jerry L. Gillette — Argonne National Laboratory

Study Integrators

James P. Peerenboom — Argonne National Laboratory

Thomas D. Wolsko — Argonne National Laboratory
xi

Acknowledgments

The study team gratefully acknowledges the encouragement and insight provided

by Kerri-Ann Jones (Associate Director), Bruce MacDonald, and Steven Rinaldi of the

National Security and International Affairs Division of the Office of Science and

Technology Policy. We also thank the many subject-matter experts and reviewers listed in

the Section 5 for their substantive contributions to this report. Finally, we thank Argonne

National Laboratory for coordinating the study effort and providing valuable

administrative, editorial, and document preparation assistance.
Acknowledgments

xii
xiii

Executive Summary

Introduction

This summary highlights the

results of a four-month research and

development (R&D) study conducted by

the Transition Office of the President’s

Commission on Critical Infrastructure

Protection. The study builds on work

previously conducted by the

Commission and provides a foundation

for the next steps in developing a

national infrastructure assurance R&D

program. Preliminary R&D topics and

associated roadmapping information are

provided for eight critical national

infrastructures: banking and finance,

electric power, oil and gas production

and storage, emergency services,

government services, information and

communications, transportation, and

water supply.

The goal of this infrastructure

assurance R&D is to support the

development of technologies that will

counter threats and reduce vulnerabilities

in those areas having the potential for

causing significant national security,

economic, and/or social impacts.

Physical and cyber threats — as well as

new threats from the growing

complexity of, and interdependencies

among, infrastructures — are addressed.

Specific technologies considered are

those that protect infrastructure and

thereby reduce vulnerability, detect

intrusions and provide warnings,

mitigate the effects of disruptions

(incidents), assist in the management of

incidents, and facilitate recovery.

Research requiring government

investment is emphasized. This research

must be accompanied by technology

development within the private sector to

ensure that useful products are

developed. Although such private-sector

development is outside the scope of this

Scope of Roadmapping Study

Study timeframe: FY2000 – FY2010.

Study focus: perceived technology

shortfalls, or “gaps,” between infrastructure

assurance technology needs and available

technologies

Categories of R&D included:

q Basic — increases the fundamental

knowledge necessary for developing

infrastructure assurance technologies

q Applied — investigates the feasibility

and practicality of proposed

technological solutions

q Advanced technology development

— includes efforts to develop

technologies and test their feasibility,

effectiveness, and interoperability

q Proof of principle and validation —

evaluates the effectiveness of

technologies in an infrastructure

environment; assesses the performance,

cost-effectiveness, and practicality of the

technology from the perspective of the

infrastructure
Executive Summary

xiv

study, technology transfer activities that

facilitate the integration of “research”

and “development” are qualitatively

considered.

Study Results

The study team identified more

than 70 R&D topics. Roadmapping

information — R&D goals and

challenges for three timeframes (nearterm [before 2002], before 2005, before

2010), rationale, priority, and estimated

resource requirements — was developed

for each topic. The team, consisting of

representatives from government,

industry, academia and research

institutes, and the Department of Energy

national laboratories, also solicited input

from, and coordinated with, numerous

experts and stakeholders from their

respective areas of representation in

developing the topics and roadmapping

information.

The estimates of resource

requirements reflect qualitative, orderof-magnitude judgments. They are

intended to be representative of the

resources needed for the R&D topics and

Summary of Roadmapping Results

q Over 70 R&D topics were identified to address infrastructure assurance needs across the

eight infrastructures. The following themes describe the focus of these topics:

B Vulnerability Assessment —assess the vulnerability of components, systems, and

infrastructures.

B Information Assurance — secure information while it is stored, being processed,

and in transit.

B Monitoring and Detection — monitor systems, detect threats and intrusions, and

provide timely warning.

B Protection and Mitigation — physically protect infrastructures and mitigate

damage.

B Response and Recovery — aid in rapid incident response and recovery.

B Modeling and Simulation — develop models of components, systems, and

infrastructures and examine the efficacy of alternative infrastructure assurance

strategies and technologies.

B Systems Analysis — analyze complex systems and identify and analyze

infrastructure interdependencies.

B Decision Support — support timely decision making with tools, methodologies, and

information systems.

B Risk Management — determine where best to allocate resources and how to manage

risks.

q Estimated resource requirements for the R&D topics total approximately $7 billion.

q Investments beyond those associated with R&D in the critical infrastructures are needed to

address interdependency and complexity.
Executive Summary

xv

are based on assumptions concerning the

scope, the expected level of effort, and

the pace of the research.

A number of common themes are

evident within the R&D topics. Some of

the themes directly correlate with the

objectives of infrastructure assurance —

to reduce critical vulnerabilities by

protecting infrastructures, detecting

intrusions, mitigating the effects of

disruptions, assisting in the management

of incidents, and facilitating recovery.

Other themes focus on developing

analytical or supporting technologies to

help meet those objectives. Vulnerability

assessment provides supporting baseline

information for all of the other themes.

Estimated near-term (FY2000–

FY2002) and mid-term (FY2003–

FY2005) resource requirements total

approximately $2 billion each, while

long-term (FY2006–FY2010) resource

requirements are estimated to be

approximately $3 billion. A breakdown

of near-term resource requirements

by theme shows that informationassurance-related R&D requires

approximately one-third of the total

estimated resources. Monitoring

and detection R&D represents about

15% of the portfolio, while

vulnerability assessment and

modeling and simulation each

represent approximately 10%.

Included within each theme

are elements that apply to, or

crosscut, multiple infrastructures.

With careful R&D planning and

coordination, crosscutting elements

could be combined into focused

R&D areas to capitalize on

synergies and reduce investment

requirements.

R&D efforts need to focus on

interdependencies and system

complexity. The identification of

interdependencies among national

infrastructures and the characterization

of how damage can propagate (cascade)

across multiple infrastructures is a high

priority.

Relevant ongoing and new R&D

activities should be viewed as an

integrated portfolio designed to meet

strategic, technical, and programmatic

infrastructure assurance objectives.

Strategically, the portfolio should

support the timely development of

technologies to protect and assure

critical infrastructures. Technically, the

portfolio should include basic, applied,

advanced technology development, and

proof-of-principle and validation

research. Programmatically, the portfolio

should include R&D projects that, to the

Information

 Assurance

Monitoring &

Detection

Protection &

Mitigation

Response &

Recovery

Modeling &

Simulation Systems

Analys

D

is

ecision

Support

Risk

Management

Vulnerability

Assessment
Executive Summary

xvi

extent possible, comprehensively

address requirements of the various

infrastructures.

Successful implementation of

technologies from government-funded

R&D requires close cooperation with

industry and the private-sector owners

and operators of our nation’s

infrastructures. Technology transfer and

embedding should be integral parts of

the R&D process. A technology transfer

plan should be prepared along with an

R&D plan to elevate the awareness of

the issues and accelerate the introduction

of infrastructure assurance technologies.

R&D must be consistent with, and

responsive to, national infrastructure

assurance policy. Such policy provides a

framework for establishing R&D

objectives, setting R&D priorities, and

shaping a multiyear, multifaceted R&D

portfolio that is commensurate in scope

and scale with the physical and cyber

challenges of the twenty-first century.

Moreover, it provides a framework for

establishing education and awareness

programs, building partnerships with

industry, and developing legislative

initiatives intended to reduce

vulnerabilities.

Next Step Recommendations

q Formally validated infrastructure assurance requirements (needs), a baseline inventory of

ongoing infrastructure-assurance-related R&D activities, and an inventory of applicable

commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) and government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) technology should

be developed. All of these elements are essential to ensure that:

− The R&D roadmap comprehensively addresses needs;

− Individual R&D topics are not addressed elsewhere; and

− New research efforts focus on critical R&D gaps.

q Various forums, such as conferences, workshops, and joint planning meetings, should be

established. These forums would bring together researchers, private-sector infrastructure

owners and operators, and government agencies to discuss common problems and

requirements, to establish research agenda, and to promote creative thinking to solve

infrastructure problems.
1-1

Section 1

Introduction

Research and development are not presently adequate to support

infrastructure protection. ... [T]here is a need for additional

technology with which to protect our essential systems.

Report of the President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection,

“Critical Foundations: Protecting America’s Infrastructures,” October 1997

1.1 Purpose

In July 1996, the President signed Executive Order 13010, which created a joint

government and private-sector Commission — the President’s Commission on Critical

Infrastructure Protection. The Commission’s goal was to develop a national strategy for

protecting our critical infrastructures from a spectrum of threats and for assuring their

continued operation. Eight critical infrastructures were identified: banking and finance;

electric power; oil and gas production and storage; emergency services; government

services; information and communications; transportation; and water supply.

After 15 months of evaluating these infrastructures, assessing their vulnerabilities,

and deliberating assurance alternatives, the Commission submitted its report — Critical

Foundations: Protecting America’s Infrastructures — to the President. Among its

findings, the Commission identified research and development (R&D) as a key element

of a multifaceted infrastructure assurance strategy. This strategy incorporates R&D,

information sharing, education and awareness, legal initiatives, and establishment of

national structures to facilitate an effective partnership among the federal government,

state and local governments, and infrastructure owners and operators. The Commission

also recommended specific areas for research and initial levels of investment to provide

the required technologies.

This report presents the results of a four-month R&D study conducted by the

Commission’s Transition Office. The purpose of this study was to define preliminary

infrastructure assurance R&D areas, investment requirements, and associated

roadmapping information. The study builds on work previously conducted by the

Commission and provides a foundation for the next steps in developing a national

infrastructure assurance R&D program. The goal of the R&D is to support the

development of technologies that address the threats to, and vulnerabilities of, critical

infrastructures that have the potential for causing significant impacts to our national

security, economy, and/or social structure.
Introduction

1-2

1.2 Scope of the R&D Study

The critical infrastructure sectors identified in Executive Order 13010 were

addressed in this study. A timeframe of approximately 10 years, beginning in fiscal year

(FY) 2000, was considered, although longer term needs were addressed in selected areas.

The primary emphasis was on near-term R&D activities that would reduce critical

vulnerabilities by protecting infrastructures, detecting intrusions, mitigating the effects of

disruptions (incidents), assisting in the management of incidents, and facilitating

recovery.

To the extent possible, this study focused on perceived technology shortfalls, or

“gaps,” between infrastructure assurance technology needs and available technologies.

(Technology, broadly defined, includes processes, systems, models and simulations,

hardware, and software.) However, given the breadth of R&D activities across the federal

government and in the private sector, some of the recommended R&D may be addressed,

at least in part, by other programs that may not focus specifically on infrastructure

assurance. For example, portions of existing programs on force protection, information

security and survivability, chemical and biological defense, and counterproliferation are

likely to apply to infrastructure assurance as well. Additional efforts are needed to catalog

such programs and establish a baseline of information to minimize duplication of effort,

identify potential synergies among programs, and focus new research efforts on critical

gaps not addressed elsewhere.

Table 1.1 defines the categories of

research considered in this study. The

emphasis was on research that requires

government investment. However, as

Figure 1.1 illustrates, this research must be

accompanied by technology development

within the private sector to meet

infrastructure assurance objectives.

Although such private-sector development

was beyond the scope of this study,

technology transfer activities that facilitate

the integration of “research” and

“development” were qualitatively

considered.

Both physical and cyber threats

were considered. The former include

threats to tangible property, while the latter

include electronic, radio-frequency, or

Table 1.1 Research Categories

Basic research — increases the

fundamental knowledge necessary for

developing infrastructure assurance

technologies

Applied research — investigates the

feasibility and practicality of proposed

technological solutions, including studies and

investigations of system-specific and

non-system-specific technologies

Advanced technology development —

includes efforts to develop technologies and

test their feasibility, effectiveness, and

interoperability

Proof of principle and validation —

evaluates the effectiveness of technologies in

an infrastructure environment (e.g., test beds);

assesses the performance, cost-effectiveness,

and practicality of the technology from the

perspective of the infrastructure
Introduction

1-3

Figure 1.1 Government and Private-sector Partnership for Meeting Infrastructure

Assurance Objectives

computer-based attacks on the information infrastructure or its components. Threats from

aging infrastructure and natural disasters were outside the scope of this effort, although

some of the recommended research could address problems in these areas.

Intrinsic threats from the growing complexity of, and interdependence among,

infrastructures also were considered. Such threats increase the possibility that a rather

minor, routine disturbance can cascade into a major problem that involves multiple

infrastructures. These dependencies among infrastructures reflect multidimensional risk

profiles and challenges that require comprehensive assurance planning based on

innovative R&D.

1.3 Sector Study Teams

As depicted in Figure 1.2, five infrastructure sector study teams and an integration

team were formed to develop roadmapping information for the eight critical

infrastructures. This consolidation allowed the teams to study infrastructures with similar

technology needs together. For example, the Energy Team addressed both the electric

power and the oil and natural gas production and storage infrastructures, while the Vital

Human Services Team addressed the water-supply system, emergency services, and

government services infrastructures. The Integration Team coordinated the overall

roadmapping activity, identified common research topics, examined interdependencies

among the infrastructures, and integrated the sector roadmapping information.

Basic Research

Applied Research

Proof-of-Principle

and Validation Engineering,

Technical

Integration,

Testing,

Manufacturing,

and Fielding

Advanced Technology

Development

Government

Technology Research

& Development

Private Sector

Technology

Development

Infrastructure

Assurance

Objectives

Focus of R&D Roadmapping Study

Partnership
Introduction

1-4

To ensure a balanced R&D

perspective, promote partnership, and

facilitate outreach, each sector study team

consisted of at least four members and a

coordinator. The members represented

government, industry, academia and

research institutes, and the national

laboratories (Figure 1.2). Team members

solicited input from, and coordinated with,

experts and stakeholders from their

respective areas of representation.

1.4 Study Approach

The substantial body of information

previously developed by and for the

Commission provided the foundation for

this study. This information included the

Critical Foundations report, a series of

comprehensive sector reports, and several R&D reports that contained initial

recommendations for protecting and assuring critical national infrastructures. The sector

study teams also drew upon recent studies conducted by government organizations;

advisory groups, committees, and task forces; industrial organizations; academic

institutes; and national laboratories. This approach allowed the teams to identify related

efforts, gain valuable insights and perspectives, and identify recurring topics.

In preparing its roadmap, each sector study team examined threats and

vulnerabilities, identified key structural and regulatory issues, and formed assumptions

about trends that could affect future infrastructure assurance. This effort required

extensive interaction among team members, as well as with external subject-matter

experts and stakeholders. In addition, each team held one or more meetings that included

both team members and other experts from government, industry, academia and research

institutes, and the national laboratories. These meetings provided a forum for discussing

infrastructure assurance and technology transfer issues and for developing roadmapping

information. Engaging external reviewers from the various areas of representation also

ensured that the recommendations were comprehensive and meaningful.

Table 1.2 identifies the elements included in the sector roadmaps. Although all of

the R&D recommendations were judged to be important, three priority categories were

established (i.e., most important, very important, important). In prioritizing the R&D

topics, the teams considered a number of interrelated factors, including the extent to

which the research, if successful, would be expected to reduce vulnerabilities, lessen the

effects of incidents, assist in managing incidents, or speed recovery activities after

incidents. Other factors considered were the magnitude of the potential consequences that

Integration Team

Vital Human Services

• Government (Lead Agency)

• Industry

• Academia/Research Institute

• National Laboratory

• Coordinator/Integrator

Energy

Transportation

Information & Communications

Banking & Finance

 Sector Study Teams

Figure 1.2 Structure of the Sector

Study Teams
Introduction

1-5

would be prevented or mitigated and the

importance of the research for ensuring

national security and the economy.

Estimates of resource requirements

were prepared for each R&D topic. The

estimates reflect qualitative, order-ofmagnitude judgments. They are intended

to be representative of the resources

needed for the R&D topics and are based

on assumptions concerning the scope, the

expected level of effort, and the pace of

the research. Detailed cost estimates must

be prepared in concert with the

development of detailed R&D plans.

In identifying R&D topics, the

teams stressed partnership between

government and the private sector. It was

recognized explicitly that infrastructure

risks affect both the public and private

sectors. Also, the private sector holds

much of the relevant technical and

empirical data on infrastructure operations,

interdependencies, and vulnerabilities.

Further, the private sector generally

develops technology only when it identifies a market for it. Therefore, successful

implementation of technologies from government-funded research efforts requires close

cooperation with industry and the private-sector owners and operators of our nation’s

infrastructures.

1.5 Report Organization

The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Section 2 summarizes R&D

topics and preliminary roadmapping information for the five infrastructure sectors.

Section 3 presents integrated roadmapping information, including estimated resource

requirements. Section 4 presents recommendations for the next steps to take in future

roadmapping and planning efforts. Finally, five attachments (tabs) provide detailed

roadmapping information for the five infrastructure sectors. Tabs A–E provide R&D

roadmapping information for the Banking and Finance, Energy, Information and

Communications, Transportation, and Vital Human Services sectors, respectively.

Table 1.2 Roadmapping Information

R&D topics — specific R&D that should be

conducted and the expected product.

Goals and challenges — the performance

goals for the R&D for three timeframes and

the associated technical challenges.

Rationale — why the research is important

(e.g., prevention, detection, mitigation,

incident management, or recovery) and the

risks of not having the technology available.

Priority — the relative priority of the R&D

topic (most important, very important, or

important).

Timeframe — the time needed to conduct the

recommended R&D, including phases and

sequencing.

Resource requirements — the estimated

level of resources, as a function of time,

needed to complete the research.
Introduction

1-6
2-1

Section 2

Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

Research and development topics and roadmapping information for the five

infrastructure sectors are summarized below. To put this information into perspective, a

brief description of each sector is provided along with an overview of the issues and

trends that affect the infrastructure. A summary of the threats to, and vulnerabilities of,

the infrastructure is also provided. (Detailed infrastructure sector reports are provided in

Tabs A–E.)

2.1 Banking and Finance

2.1.1 Infrastructure Overview

The banking and finance infrastructure consists of institutions, agencies, and

support systems (physical, procedural, and data) that facilitate lending, borrowing,

issuing, trading in, or caring for money, credit, and other representations of value. This

infrastructure includes banks and credit unions; insurance companies; lending and credit

institutions of all kinds; securities and commodities dealers; state, federal, and

international oversight and regulatory agencies; and the web of communications

equipment and linkages that support transactions among those systems.

2.1.2 Issues and Trends

Several emerging trends threaten the safety and soundness of the banking and

finance infrastructure. These trends include:

• Deregulation and increased competition, which can result in less marginal capability

to absorb the costs of added security measures.

• Convergence of technologies in computing, communications, networking, and

encryption, which increases the efficiency and flexibility of transaction support, but

can add vulnerabilities.

• Internationalization of commerce, which gives new, nondomestic entities

unprecedented access to U.S. systems and information.

• Changing definitions of value. For example, the form of money and the way that

information about money are managed have become valuable assets.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-2

The effect of these trends on the U.S. banking and finance infrastructure can be

moderated by the way in which government and industry respond to four challenges:

• Making policy trade-offs to balance competing goals among open markets, regulatory

management, national security, and free trade;

• Adapting to the technical revolution in two infrastructures: (1) information and

communications and (2) banking and finance;

• Accommodating the internationalization of commerce and information; and

• Defining new assets that require protection.

2.1.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities

Potential threats to, and vulnerabilities of, the banking and finance infrastructure

originate from the lack of a clear understanding of how alternative responses in each of

four areas might affect the industry.

Regulation and Control

If the architecture and dynamics of the banking and finance infrastructure are not

well understood, the regulatory regimes intended to maintain the safety and surety of that

infrastructure would be rapidly overcome by changes in technology, markets, and

practices in the industry. The nexus between the concerns of the banking and finance

infrastructure and those of the information and communications infrastructure is

becoming so complex that policies developed in one area can have serious, unintended

consequences to the other.

New Technologies

As the banking and finance community adopts new technologies to streamline

transactions, the systems that support those transactions become more complex and

difficult to secure. The efficiency, flexibility, and adaptability that make the new

technologies attractive to the industry also create subtle (and potentially catastrophic)

weaknesses in the system. Innovative use of the new technologies makes it possible for

each point of presence in the infrastructure network to create a customized interface to the

industry. Without proper protection and management, each point of presence can become

a point of entry for someone intending to do harm to, or through, the infrastructure.

Internationalization of Markets

As the banking and finance infrastructure becomes more open to world

commerce, many nondomestic points of presence enter the networks. Domestic standards

and practice may not be the norm for such entities. These differences may result in
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-3

unforeseen vulnerabilities. In addition, the hardware and software that exemplify the new

technologies may originate from nondomestic manufacturers and suppliers. The standards

and practices by which these items are integrated into the infrastructure must take into

account the potential vulnerabilities.

Financial Information

As individual entities and systems are integrated into the banking and finance

infrastructure, the information collected, stored, and transmitted among various points of

presence becomes more vulnerable to manipulation, disclosure, or destruction. Methods

and techniques for securing both the system and the information it handles must keep

pace with the points of presence and the sophistication of technologies available.

2.1.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps

Table 2.1 summarizes the R&D topics and their corresponding roadmaps for the

banking and finance infrastructure. The table provides brief descriptions of research

topics grouped by priority (i.e., most important, very important, important); summaries of

research activities for three timeframes (near-term [before 2002], before 2005, and before

2010); and estimates of the financial resources required to support the R&D activities for

each timeframe. Table A contains more detailed descriptions of these research topics,

supporting rationale, goals and challenges, threats and vulnerabilities addressed by the

research, and research roadmap information.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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Table 2.1 Summary of Banking and Finance R&D Topics and Roadmapsa

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics

 1 Simulation

Model

Development

Development and maintenance of a

simulation model of the banking and

finance infrastructure and analysis of

management alternatives and policies.

(A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Engage industry and design, develop, maintain, and

elaborate a constructive strategic simulation model (CSSM).

($18 million)

~2005: Develop the requirements, legal basis, policies, and

techniques for protecting the sensitive, proprietary, and classified

data required for the CSSM. Leverage existing work, models,

mechanisms, etc. ($10 million)

~2010: Prepare field operational model and life-cycle management

plan. ($1 million)

 2 Information

Security

Analysis

Analysis and evaluation of current

cryptographic and surety analysis

technology applications. Transfer and

development or adaptation of new

technologies. (B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Develop a legal and procedural basis for expediting

access to government off-the-shelf cryptographic analysis and

surety analysis technology. Analyze and evaluate the efficacy of

implementations of cryptographic and surety technologies.

Develop and validate security implementation standards for

banking and finance information applications (scaleable,

supporting variable security levels). ($32 million)

~2005: Implement anonymity balance. Field scaleable key public

management systems. ($6 million)

~2010: Field entity authentication technologies. ($1 million)

Very Important R&D Topics

 3 Intrusion

Indication and

Warning (I&W)

Tools

Development of tools for detecting,

discriminating, and managing

intrusions and anomalies in information

systems. (B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Use insight from the development of the CSSM to

determine where within the system I&W and sensitivity tools and

techniques are applicable. Determine what data are required to

implement those tools and techniques. ($29 million)

~2005: Develop an initial suite of tools. ($7 million)

~2010: Field operational tools. ($1 million)

 4 Systems

Reliability

Enhancement

Development and transfer of highreliability trusted systems, network

security agents, self-healing systems,

and dynamic configurable firewalls.

(B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Develop, publish, and begin to implement initial

standards and specifications. Develop prototypes of network

security agents. ($54 million)

~2005: Complete implementation of standards and specifications,

and prototypes of network security agents. ($15 million)

~2010: Field prototypes of self-healing systems, configurable

firewalls, and network defense agents. ($2 million)

Important R&D Topics

 5 Information

System

Standardization

Development of an open architecture

standard for the banking and finance

infrastructure. (A)

Near-term: Publish initial standards for open architecture.

($6 million)

 6 Electronic

Commerce

Security

Enhancement

Development and implementation of

networking equipment and standards

for managing security of electronic

commerce. (B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Publish initial standards and specifications for

equipment and support tools. ($9 million)

~2005: Field standards. ($9 million)

~2010: Field operational tools. ($3 million)

a The order of the R&D topics within a priority category (i.e., most important, very important, important) does not imply relative

importance.

b B = basic; A = applied; ATD = advanced technology development; and POP = proof of principle and validation.

c Resource estimates reflect qualitative, order-of-magnitude judgments. They are intended to be representative of the resources

needed for the R&D topics and are based on assumptions concerning the scope, the expected level of effort, and the pace of the

research. Detailed cost estimates must be prepared in concert with the development of detailed R&D plans.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-5

2.2 Energy

2.2.1 Infrastructure Overview

The energy infrastructure includes electric power, oil, and natural gas. Each

requires production, processing, and transportation to provide energy to customers,

including residential, commercial, industrial, and government end users. Production

consists of generation of electricity by power plants and well-head extraction of both oil

and natural gas. Each requires large, complex transportation networks to deliver energy to

end users. Each has transmission and distribution lines. Electric power requires

substations and transformers; oil requires pumping stations and refineries; and natural gas

requires compressor stations and gas processing centers. Storage is also a key component

for oil and natural gas and is becoming a major component for electricity.

In addition to the physical components that comprise these three networks, each

infrastructure uses Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems.

SCADA systems help to monitor and operate the physical components and can increase

efficiency and safety within the infrastructure. Also, each of these infrastructures depends

on other infrastructures, including information and communications and transportation

systems, for operation.

These energy infrastructures are highly interdependent. Many electrical generating

plants consume natural gas and oil. Electricity is required to operate petroleum refineries

and pumping stations as well as most natural gas appliances. Even motor gasoline cannot

be pumped without electricity.

2.2.2 Issues and Trends

The energy infrastructures (electric power, oil, natural gas) are essential to the

quality of life in our society. When one or more of these energy infrastructures fail, then,

in addition to personal and economic losses, this failure generates significant negative

attitudes about the quality of life in our society. Our society and economy depend heavily

on reliable and sustainable energy sources, such as electricity to operate our computers,

gasoline to fuel our vehicles, and natural gas to heat our homes. Some of the emerging

issues and trends in the energy infrastructure include the following:

• Deregulation and rapid restructuring are occurring in both the electric power and the

natural gas industries, which is designed to enhance the competitive environment.

• The emphasis on competition is reducing operating margins, thereby increasing the

likelihood of system disturbances from small events.

• Marketing companies, mergers and acquisitions, and competitive markets are

changing the way in which commodities are purchased, and they test the energy

infrastructure in new ways.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-6

• Reduced investments in new technology create the potential for less reliable operation

and additional disruptions in supply.

• The age of critical energy components, combined with decreasing operating budgets,

represents a potential concern.

• Downsizing of the energy industry creates the potential for disgruntled “insiders” and

a significant loss of expertise.

• The “not-in-my-backyard” attitude severely limits the number of new rights-of-way,

which are needed for electric transmission lines and natural gas and oil pipelines.

• Increased dependence on information systems based on open architectures,

centralized operations, increased communication over public networks, and remote

maintenance creates additional vulnerabilities.

• Our dependence on foreign supplies and vendors raises concerns about the reliability

of our energy supplies.

• Reliance on automated systems increases vulnerability to technological failure and

cyber attacks.

2.2.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities

Threats to the U.S. energy system arise from a number of sources, including

hostile governments, terrorist groups, other organized groups, disgruntled employees,

malicious intruders, natural disasters, accidents, system complexities, and dependence on

other infrastructures. The U.S. Department of Energy has documented more than

1,000 incidents directed against the U.S. energy system over the past 15 years; some

supply disruptions have caused significant damage.

Well-organized groups (perhaps working with insiders) can cause massive

physical and cyber damage to our energy supply systems. These groups could damage the

system so severely that major cities, or multistate regions, could suffer severe, long-term

energy shortages.

Furthermore, cyber vulnerabilities are rapidly increasing, as the industry becomes

more automated and interconnected. While there are relatively few documented cases of

insider attacks on computers, the reality is that a knowledgeable insider has an almost

unlimited ability to cause problems, from bypassing access authorization to subverting

systems.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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The electric power and oil and natural gas infrastructures face many

vulnerabilities, including the following:

• Those created in the operating system because of the rapid introduction of

information systems based on open architectures, centralized operations, and

increased communications over public telecommunications networks.

• SCADA systems because they often use common commercial hardware and software,

connect to other company networks, and rely on dial-back modems that can be

bypassed.

• Increased availability of vulnerability information, much of which is mandated by

regulatory bodies to facilitate competition, and the availability of tools to exploit

those vulnerabilities.

• Rapid assimilation of advanced technologies with inherent complexities.

• Consolidation of infrastructure corridors (e.g., communications, electric transmission

lines, pipelines).

• Complexity of the system so that a failure is possible, either from accidental events or

a deliberate attack, when the system has minimum capacity reserves and energy

transfers are large.

2.2.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps

Table 2.2 summarizes R&D topics and their corresponding roadmaps for the

energy infrastructure. The table provides brief descriptions of research topics grouped by

priority (i.e., most important, very important, important); summaries of research activities

for three timeframes (near-term [before 2002], before 2005, before 2010); and estimates

of the financial resources required to support the R&D activities for each timeframe.

Tab B contains more detailed descriptions of these research topics, supporting rationale,

goals and challenges, threats and vulnerabilities addressed by the research, and research

roadmap information.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-8

Table 2.2 Summary of Energy R&D Topics and Roadmapsa

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics

 1 Real-time Control

Mechanisms

Integration of real-time control

systems to support timely decisions

involving electric grid operations.

System includes instrumentation

and monitoring, models and

simulations, control methods, and

decision support tools.

(See topics 1.1–1.4 for roadmapping information.)

1.1 Instrumentation and

Monitoring for

Distributed Control

Applied research and technology

development to produce hardware

and software systems designed to

collect and manage large data

streams for implementing real-time

control systems. (A, ATD)

Near-term: Implement common data model and

identify measurement requirements. ($5 million)

~2005: Develop advanced sensors, measurement timing

standards, and data compression tools. Establish high

bandwidth communication channels. ($32 million)

~2010: Establish wide area monitoring, data storage and

retrieval, and adaptive monitoring methods.

($57 million)

1.2 Analysis and

Computation for Largescale Systems

Basic research, technology

development, and proof-of-principle

pilots to develop advanced

simulation techniques, user-friendly

interfaces, and expert systems for

handling large volumes of

information. (B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Implement on-line security assessment

tools. ($15 million)

~2005: Establish stability indices. Develop

measurement-based analysis tools and parameters for

integrating measurement- and model-based tools.

($37 million)

~2010: Establish uncertainty theory and implement

integrated analytical approach. ($48 million)

1.3 Advanced Control

Methods

Primarily basic research to develop

a new control theory for large-scale

systems. Theory will apply to other

large-scale systems (e.g., space

structures). (B, POP)

Near-term: Assess current state of robust control

theory and decentralized control theory. ($8 million)

~2005: Advance theoretical basis for robust and

decentralized control. ($32 million)

~2010: Develop proof of principle and validation on

integrated large-scale system control theory.

($48 million)

1.4 Decision Support Tools Basic research to technology

development of hardware and

software systems to support realtime decision making. (B, A, ATD,

POP)

Near-term: Develop new visualization techniques and

operator interfaces for increased data volume.

($6 million)

~2005: Implement first-generation reasoning tools.

Develop tools to assist operators in handling many

transactions. ($10 million)

~2010: Develop autonomous agents and implement

multiconstraint optimization tools. ($33 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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Table 2.2 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

 2 Analysis of Scale and

Complexity

Development of a better

understanding of the stability of

large electric power systems; effects

of uncertainties and changing

conditions on the system; effects of

complexity and scale on the

behavior of people involved with

the system; large network

interactions, voltage collapse, and

network security; techniques to

reduce complexity; and

countermeasures to avoid and

control malicious acts aimed at the

system. (B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Study restructuring effects on complexity.

Develop theoretical understanding of complex systems

and applied understanding of the evolving complexity

of the power grid. ($45 million)

~2005: Develop an understanding of human interfaces

and how humans handle scale and complexity.

Understand effects of uncertainties on vulnerability and

develop mitigation methods. ($30 million)

 3 Vulnerability

Assessment

Assessment of vulnerabilities to

support decisions regarding research

and capital investment for electric

power system assurance. (B, A)

Near-term: Complete systematic and current estimates

of vulnerabilities and threats. Estimate impacts of

outages. Define modeling requirements. Characterize

restructuring effects. ($9 million)

~2005: Develop or enhance models. Analyze

restructuring impacts. Evaluate infrastructure assurance

options. ($9 million)

~2010: Develop improved procedures and evaluate

more options. ($14 million)

 9 Critical Consequence

Analysis

Development of models of the

natural gas network to evaluate

system vulnerability and response to

incidents. (B, A)

Near-term: Complete and implement basic design of

model. ($2 million)

~2005: Develop incident/failure scenarios and

consequence analysis, including curtailment impacts, by

using the model. ($1 million)

10 Decision Support

Systems

Development and implementation of

risk management and decision

support tools to allow natural gas

and oil industry decision makers to

prioritize resources, minimize risk,

and respond to incidents. (B, A,

ATD, POP)

Near-term: Assess data and tools. Assign decision

analysis requirements with priorities. ($36 million)

~2005: Develop expert system tools. Make models for

highest priority items. Assess secondary priority items.

($36 million)

~2010: Continue to develop high-priority items.

Develop expert system tools and models for secondary

priority items. ($48 million)

11 Physical Protection

Assessment

Assessment of the physical assets of

the natural gas and oil industry,

vulnerable nodes, protection

methods, and protection strategies.

(B, A)

Near-term: Collect historic reports and data. Survey

industry to determine highest vulnerabilities. Assess

technology. Develop and implement strategies.

($5 million)

14 Cyber Protection

Enhancement

Development of enhanced security

measures for natural gas system

SCADA control systems and

electronic commerce. (B, A, ATD,

POP)

Near-term: Identify encryption algorithms and

standards. ($25 million)

~2005: Complete technology review and selection.

Manufacture chips. ($50 million)

~2010: Implement enhanced protection system for

SCADA and electronic commerce. Obtain acceptance of

approved standards by industry. ($126 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-10

Table 2.2 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

16 Institutional Barriers Investigation of the institutional

issues that are potential

impediments to the achievement of

energy system infrastructure

assurance objectives. (A)

Near-term: Develop partnerships. ($13 million)

~2005: Develop tools and roles and establish priorities.

($15 million)

~2010: Maintain support and networking needs, such as

the FBI security center. ($45 million)

17 Infrastructure

Interdependencies

Investigation of the

interdependencies within the energy

system (e.g., gas and electricity

generation) and between the energy

system and other infrastructures.

(B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Relate technical complexities to business

disruptions and economic losses. Complete in-depth

analysis of technical impacts. Examine requirements for

advanced computational modeling and simulation tools.

($6 million)

~2005: Identify and analyze options to reduce

interdependency impacts. Develop analysis tools.

($5 million)

~2010: Obtain results of analyzing options to reduce

interdependency-related vulnerabilities. ($11 million)

Very Important R&D Topics

 4 Information Assurance

and Cyber Security

Development of cyber threat

assessment and risk management

tools for the electric power system.

Understand complexity of large,

dispersed information systems.

Develop high-security SCADA

network architectures. Develop

efficient encryption techniques for

the electric power system. Develop

authentication/ authorization tools.

Develop improved cyber intrusion

detection techniques. Develop threat

analysis of high-frequency weapons

on information systems.

(See topics 4.1–4.7 for roadmapping information.)

4.1 Threat Assessment and

Risk Management

Applied and technology R&D to

develop tools to help designers

safely move the electric power

industry into a more interconnected,

market-based system. (A, ATD)

Near-term: Conduct systematic, industry-wide threat

assessment and vulnerability mapping. Develop base

risk management tools. ($15 million)

~2005: Develop standardized, industry-wide threat

model. Integrate risk management tools into design

tools. Ensure consistent models are used to define threat

environments and assess risk. Integrate models into

design and validation tools. ($10 million)

4.2 Large Systems Analysis Basic and applied research to

develop and extend models to

ensure the stability of the electric

system in the face of faults, cyber

attacks, and other assaults. (B, A,

ATD, POP)

Near-term: Develop basic models and simulations and

basic design tools. ($13 million)

~2005: Develop integrated models and near real-time

prediction, model-based control. ($14 million)

~2010: Validate the entire power grid. Incorporate

models into design. Develop simulation and validation

tools. ($18 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-11

Table 2.2 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Very Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

4.3 High-security SCADA

Systems

Applied research to develop highsecurity SCADA systems for

electric power. Results include

design guidelines, design tools,

models, test and evaluation tools.

(A)

Near-term Develop a baseline understanding of

existing systems and current industry practices. Develop

design guidelines. ($24 million)

~2005: Develop and validate proof of concept.

Standardize efforts for deployment of new SCADA

networks. ($24 million)

~2010: Produce and adopt standard SCADA design

guidelines. ($32 million)

4.4 Efficient, Adaptable

Encryption

Basic and applied research to

develop and implement encryption

technologies that have minimal

downside impacts on operations.

(B, A)

Near-term: Develop a baseline understanding of

requirements for major system areas. Evaluate

encryption technologies. ($22 million)

~2005: Deploy encryption technologies throughout the

power industry. ($23 million)

~2010: Deploy dynamic and high-bandwidth

encryption. ($30 million)

4.5 Robust Authentication

and Authorization

Basic and applied research is

needed to develop and deploy

strong authentication and

authorization controls to both the

SCADA and information networks

in the electric power industry.

(B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Map the requirements for authentication

and authorization of existing systems. Define generalpurpose, scaleable mechanisms. Begin working with

standards. ($22 million)

~2005: Work with the electric power industry and

product manufactures to adopt standardized

mechanisms. ($23 million)

~2010: Implement standardized authentication and

authorization models on all new systems added to the

grid. ($30 million)

4.6 Intrusion Detection Basic and applied research to detect

probes, penetrations and attacks on

information systems. Probes and

attacks must be detected quickly to

trigger a response. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Develop understanding of threats and

current vulnerabilities. Deploy threat detection to both

the communication and control infrastructure of the

grid. ($22 million)

~2005: Develop and deploy efficient, dynamic intrusion

detection tools. ($23 million)

~2010: Link intrusion detection into central threat

center for grid-wide system monitoring. Deploy

automated response capability. ($30 million)

4.7 Directed Energy

Weapons

Countermeasures

Basic and applied research to

examine the vulnerability of the

electric power grid to high-energy

radio frequency weapons. Research

needed to protect information

systems and critical electric system

components. (B, A)

Near-term: Develop understanding of the current state

of high-energy weapons. Construct and test devices.

Develop test bed. Prepare design guidelines for

protection. ($18 million)

~2005: Integrate information learned into overall design

tools. ($18 million)

~2010: Conduct further research into protecting against

directed weapons. ($24 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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Table 2.2 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Very Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

5 Emergency Response

and Recovery

Information

Technologies

Development of emergency

response and recovery protocols and

procedures for information

technology systems within electric

power grids. (B, A)

Near-term: Develop concept. Identify critical

components and protection and mitigation strategies.

Begin developing exercise process and computer

simulation models. ($2 million)

~2005: Conduct exercises on a periodic basis. Develop

and apply lessons learned from exercises. Begin

developing concept for oil and natural gas pipeline

networks. ($3 million)

~2010: Refine process as changes warrant. Begin

conducting exercises for oil and gas pipeline networks.

($4 million)

6 Transmission and

Distribution

Technologies

Development of advanced

technology to increase the security

of electric power transmission and

distribution. (ATD, POP)

Near-term: Examine specific infrastructure assurance

contributions for several R&D topics. Improve siting

and environmental impact process for new transmission

lines. ($100 million)

~2005: Develop hardware and software. Complete proof

of principle for smart instrumentation and control

systems. Make progress in advanced power electronics

systems. ($100 million)

~2010: Achieve significant progress in superconducting

technologies. Implement advanced power electronics

systems. ($166 million)

12 Multisensor and

Warning Technologies

Development and implementation of

a multisensor system that warns of

attempted intrusions. (B, A, ATD,

POP)

Near-term: Assess current technologies. Design needed

technologies. Establish industry-government

partnership. ($28 million)

~2005: Roadmap national technologies. Develop

software and hardware. ($31 million)

~2010: Implement technology pilot program.

Commercially develop technologies. Set up an oversight

committee. ($101 million)

15 Evaluation of Policy

Effects

Study of the cause-and-effect

relationships among laws,

directives, operating policies,

standards, and vulnerability of the

energy system. (B, A)

Near-term: Determine the effect of numerous proposed

policies on vulnerability and security of energy systems.

Explore grid operation implications. ($29 million)

~2005: Establish college programs with technical and

public policy aspects of infrastructure assurance.

($6 million)

Important R&D Topics

7 On-line Security

Assessment

Development of algorithms, models,

and methods for on-line, near-realtime assessments of the safe

operation of the electric power

system. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Examine incremental algorithms for system

perturbations. Obtain 1,000-fold increase in speed with

subcycle state information. Develop database replication

techniques. ($10 million)

~2005: Reduce cost and running times. Develop

accurate tools and models for the national grid. Develop

tools for geographic decomposition in nonsymmetric

complex cases. ($10 million)

~2010: Develop and implement improved and new

tools. Reduce cost and running times. ($16 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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Table 2.2 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

8 Dispersed Generation

and Backup

Infrastructures

Evaluation of the role of dispersed

systems and backup systems in

electric power generation;

development of advanced

technologies for these systems.

(ATD, POP)

Near-term: Analyze infrastructure assurance benefits of

dispersed generation. Prioritize options. ($20 million)

~2005: Demonstrate and integrate distributed

generation systems with storage. Demonstrate and

control with custom power systems. Develop improved

backup system. ($20 million)

~2010: Continue reducing costs and improving

reliability of technology options. Improve ability for

systems to run unattended for long periods.

($33 million)

13 Emergency Response

Capability

Enhancement

Development of protocols and

procedures for the gas and oil

industry to respond to emergencies.

(A)

Near-term: Develop industry-government partnership.

Establish roles for government and industry. Identify

technology gaps. ($22 million)

~2005: Develop roles. Develop a national emergency

plan. Begin technology implementations. ($30 million)

~2010: Ensure that technologies and best practices are

widely implemented in industry. ($100 million)

a The order of the R&D topics within a priority category (i.e., most important, very important, important) does not imply

relative importance.

b B = basic; A = applied; ATD = advanced technology development; and POP = proof of principle and validation.

c Resource estimates reflect qualitative, order-of-magnitude judgments. They are intended to be representative of the

resources needed for the R&D topics and are based on assumptions concerning the scope, the expected level of effort,

and the pace of the research. Detailed cost estimates must be prepared in concert with the development of detailed R&D

plans.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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2.3 Information and Communications

2.3.1 Infrastructure Overview

The information and communications infrastructure has three components: an

underlying “link” for moving data, a network and transport component, and computing

systems. The underlying physical link moves data from point to point (e.g., satellites,

copper wire, optic fibers, wireless transmissions). The network and transport component

is hardware (e.g., circuit switches) and software (e.g., control systems) that deal with

addressing, routing, and data transport services. The computing systems generate,

manipulate, store, display, or control information.

The combination of these components provides the communication, computation,

control, information, and human collaboration systems that are critical to the functioning

of other infrastructures and society. This highly complex infrastructure depends on

interconnected multiple carriers across the nation and integrated advanced system

hardware and software components. This infrastructure also forms the backbone of the

Internet and connects with computer networks and communication networks on an

international level.

2.3.2 Issues and Trends

The explosive growth of the Internet and its incorporation into business through

the World Wide Web — for advertising products and services, electronic mail

communications, and electronic commerce — have imposed an expanding new

communications medium over the infrastructure. In addition to traditional telephone

services, this infrastructure is increasingly being required to support Internet

communications and new services. The interconnection of computer networks at an

international level facilitates communications across countries without the traditional

protections and protocols imposed by geographic boundaries. Information can be

disseminated around the world in seconds through the Internet.

The increasing use of sophisticated computer control systems for the information

and communications (telecommunications) infrastructure has introduced new

technologies through additional hardware and software components and communications

protocols. Further, the interconnection of multiple carriers and equipment types adds a

new dimension in complexity.

Developments in technology and new security products continue to increase.

Much of this development and manufacturing work is being done at non-U.S. locations

by wholly or partly foreign-owned companies. This trend has the potential to introduce

unknown vulnerabilities into systems and networks. The rapid growth of wireless and

satellite communications to supplement wire lines adds a new aspect to telecommunications, and with it, a host of specialized technologies with exploitable vulnerabilities.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-15

The telecommunications industry recently experienced many consolidations and

mergers. These trends affect the implementation of security through corporate

downsizing, reduced competition, and the potential for less diversity in product security.

Furthermore, other infrastructures depend more on the information and

communications infrastructure for their continued operation. These infrastructures use

remote control equipment (e.g., SCADA systems) more frequently, which creates a strong

and direct dependency.

As the Internet becomes a medium of commerce, various legal issues in regard to

the security of electronic commerce and privacy have emerged. The development and

enforcement of laws to protect the Internet and systems are increasingly important areas

that have not been definitively addressed.

2.3.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities

Threats to the information and communications infrastructure can come from

many sources, such as deliberate attacks (cyber or physical) by insiders or outsiders,

natural disasters, simple accidents, and failure of poorly designed or configured

equipment. The goal is to continuously improve the protection of our systems and

networks from security threats and vulnerabilities.

Because computer networks over the Internet are interconnected, an attack can

originate from anywhere in the world. The traditional protection afforded by country

boundaries and checkpoints is no longer sufficient. Systems are vulnerable because many

networks are interconnected, and they are only as secure as the weakest link. This

interconnection also provides intruders with a level of anonymity and impedes the ability

to trace the specific location of an attack. The computing power available to intruders is

becoming increasingly sophisticated, and advanced attack tools are available on the

World Wide Web. Further, the design of security products often lags behind the

technological capability of intruders to penetrate systems.

New technologies and features are launched rapidly in the telecommunications

industry, potentially introducing new vulnerabilities as a result of incompatible protocols

and interfaces. Moreover, technology that lacks component-level and integrated

environment testing is used with other existing technologies in the network. Increasingly

sophisticated hardware and software components and system control technologies have

the potential to introduce design flaws, especially when these components are integrated

into large-scale legacy systems. Finally, the increased loads on existing communications

infrastructures, which have resulted from the expanded use of the Internet, place

additional burdens on these systems.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-16

2.3.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps

Table 2.3 summarizes R&D topics and their corresponding roadmaps for the

information and communications infrastructure. The table provides brief descriptions of

research topics grouped by priority (i.e., most important, very important, important);

summaries of research activities for three timeframes (near-term [before 2002], before

2005, and before 2010); and estimates of the financial resources required to support the

R&D activities for each timeframe. Tab C contains more detailed descriptions of these

research topics, supporting rationale, goals and challenges, threats and vulnerabilities

addressed by the research, and research roadmap information.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-17

Table 2.3 Summary of Information and Communications R&D Topics and Roadmapsa

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics

1 Vulnerability

Detection and

Analysis

Identification, collection, and

dissemination of vulnerability

information; development of threat and

vulnerability lexicon; development of

methodologies and technologies to avoid,

reduce, or eliminate vulnerabilities. (B, A,

ATD)

Near-term: Develop lexicon and procedures for

collecting, analyzing, and disseminating vulnerability

information. ($90 million)

~2005: Develop database to identify vulnerability

information about the infrastructure. Develop metrics

and measures to gauge the effectiveness of tools to

detect and analyze vulnerabilities, and automate tools to

detect vulnerabilities. ($90 million)

~2010: Develop coordinated and scaleable tools for

vulnerability detection and data notification at the

national level. Establish international cooperation for

collecting and sharing information on vulnerabilities.

($150 million)

4 Characterization

and Notification

of Threats

Collection of data, analysis, and

development of tools to address threats to

the information and communications

infrastructure. (B, A)

Near-term: Develop procedures for collecting,

analyzing, and disseminating threat data. ($25 million)

~2005: Implement national database of threat and

response information. Profile potential attackers.

($30 million)

~2010: Develop and distribute coordinated, nationallevel tools for threat notification. Establish international

cooperation for collecting and sharing threat data.

($40 million)

5 Intrusion and

Incident Detection and Warning

Development of efficient and costeffective tools and methodologies for

rapid incident detection and warning.

(B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Develop manual tools and procedures to

detect incidents and issue warnings. Establish metrics

for assessing intrusion detection systems. ($90 million)

~2005: Develop automated tools to detect incidents and

issue warnings, strategy-based intrusion detection

systems, automated trace-back tools, and scaleable

detection systems. ($90 million)

~2010: Develop scaleable tools at a national level to

detect indications and warnings of an attack. Establish

international cooperation and sharing of data on attacks.

Create scaleable assessment tools to evaluate Internet

threats. ($150 million)

6 Response,

Recovery, and

Reconstitution

Development of methods to contain, stop,

or eject intruders; mitigate damage; and

restore service. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Develop manual tools to detect, contain,

and eject intruders, and to perform triage for recovery on

attacked systems. ($95 million)

~2005: Develop automated tools to detect, contain, and

eject intruders, and perform triage for recovery on

attacked systems. ($105 million)

~2010: Continue development of automated tools to

improve robustness, efficiency, and timely response in

recovery. ($100 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-18

Table 2.3 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

7 Security

Architectures

Development of new and improved

security architectures. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Establish methodologies for automated

distribution of security patches. Prepare security

implementation policies. ($125 million)

~2005: Develop advanced firewall technologies and

active, dynamic network technologies. ($150 million)

~2010: Develop scaleable, robust security architectures

to integrate security components. ($250 million)

8 Assurance

Technologies

Development of tools and methodologies

to implement new and improved

assurance technologies. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Establish standards and methods of

incorporating assurance into system development and

complete product evaluation policies. ($95 million)

~2005: Develop tools for efficient product evaluation

and system-level evaluations. ($105 million)

~2010: Continuously develop and refine methodologies

and techniques for incorporating assurance into system

development. ($175 million)

10 Management of

Information

Protection

Development of tools and methodologies

for effective management of information

protection in information and

communication systems. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Research and develop concepts and

techniques for protecting data and performing

configuration management in local and remote

infrastructure components. Define performance metrics

for evaluating information protection. ($30 million)

~2005: Research information protection concepts that

carry use conditions, or metadata, with the information.

Establish economic metrics for evaluating information

protection. ($30 million)

~2010: Continuously develop and refine measurement

concepts, tools, and technologies for managing the

protection of data in diverse environments. ($50 million)

Very Important R&D Topics

2 Valuation of

Information

Development of tools and methodologies

to assist information owners in

determining the value of their information

and choosing cost-effective protective

measures. (B, A)

Near-term: Develop manual tools, techniques and

procedures to assess the value of information.

($30 million)

~2005: Develop automated tools to assist information

owners in assessing the value of information and

determining appropriate levels of protection.

($30 million)

~2010: Develop and refine automated tools to assist

information owners in assessing the value of information

and protection, including information that can be

aggregated from multiple sources. ($50 million)

9 Advanced

Concepts and

Theory

Development of tools and methodologies

to design and implement cost-effective

security measures. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Establish standards, techniques, and

procedures for software development. ($30 million)

~2005: Research and develop ways to use expert

systems in network management and to adaptively

secure systems. ($30 million)

~2010: Develop self-describing secure systems.

($50 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-19

Table 2.3 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Very Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

11 Characterization

of Minimum

Infrastructure for

Essential Services

Identification of the critical elements in

the information and communication

infrastructure required to provide

essential national, governmental, and

military services. (A, ATD)

Near-term: Define and characterize minimum essential

government and military communications, operations

and services, and the required infrastructure to support

those services. ($15 million)

~2005: Establish interagency contingency and

coordination plans and address the introduction of

redundant systems in critical applications. ($15 million)

~2010: Develop plans and deploy additional

technologies to ensure redundancy as new technologies

emerge and the scope of government services evolves.

($25 million)

13 Modeling and

Simulation Tools

Development of tools and methodologies

for simulating complex information and

communication systems and architectures

and can analyze alternative security

configurations. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Define requirements and initiate modeling

and simulation on small network systems.

($135 million)

~2005: Develop tools and models for modeling

complex systems at the architectural level, and tools and

techniques for modeling interdependencies and

vulnerabilities in systems. ($150 million)

~2010: Develop automated tools for detecting

deviations from system specifications at the architectural

level, and technologies and specifications for selfdescribing systems. ($250 million)

Important R&D Topics

3 Risk Analysis Development of automated tools for

analyzing risks to information and

information systems. (B, A)

Near-term: Develop semiautomated risk analysis tools

and formulate techniques and metrics to assess risk.

($75 million)

~2005: Develop automated risk analysis tools to

dynamically assess risk on systems and networks as

components change. ($75 million)

~2010: Develop advanced and automated risk analysis

tools to incorporate the emergence of new technologies

and system components. ($50 million)

12 Encryption

Technology

Development of cost-effective suite of

hardware and software technology for

encryption. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Establish national standards for security

key management. ($125 million)

~2005: Develop robust, high-performance, costeffective, cryptographic technologies. ($150 million)

~2010: Continually advance and refine robust

encryption technologies given the significant increases

in computing power available. ($250 million)

a The order of the R&D topics within a priority category (most important, very important, important) does not imply relative

importance.

b B = basic; A = applied; ATD = advanced technology development; and POP = proof of principle and validation.

c Resource estimates reflect qualitative, order-of-magnitude judgments. They are intended to be representative of the

resources needed for the R&D topics and are based on assumptions concerning the scope, the expected level of effort, and

the pace of the research. Detailed cost estimates must be prepared in concert with the development of detailed R&D plans.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-20

2.4 Transportation

2.4.1 Infrastructure Overview

The transportation infrastructure is composed of all surface, air, and waterborne

components of the U.S. transportation system but excludes pipelines, which are part of

the energy infrastructure. These components include the following:

• Public and private airborne and groundside aviation activity,

• Railway and highway movement and trans-shipment of goods and people (including

intercity passenger and mass transit services), and

• Inland waterborne commerce and maritime navigation and their associated port and

terminal facilities.

2.4.2 Issues and Trends

Despite the increased freedom to enter the carrier market, which was a product of

deregulation that began 20 years ago, the number of rail, bus, and barge companies in the

U.S. has declined since 1990. Many new air carriers have tried unsuccessfully to enter the

market. It is becoming more common to see privately held infrastructure concentrated in

fewer hands, leading to an unprecedented degree of centralized command and control of

essential functions. Although the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of

1991 enabled improvements to our primary and secondary highway system, these roads

remain in an unsatisfactory condition in light of the demands placed upon them. The gap

between highway needs and performance is the greatest it has been in decades, primarily

as a result of deferred spending and reduced maintenance budgets. A recent trend — the

public’s unwillingness to pay for transportation infrastructure through tax-supported

mechanisms — has resulted in private commercial interests and joint public-private

ventures that provide more transportation capabilities. This shift transfers much of the

responsibility for transportation security to organizations less experienced in, and thus

potentially less capable of, handling such responsibility (e.g., tollway authorities).

The desire to reduce costs and increase efficiency has led to increased reliance on

information technologies as substitutes for capital investments. Experienced human

surveillance has been replaced by automated surveillance. Because so much of the fixed

transportation infrastructure is relatively isolated, reliability and dependence on

automated systems become critical issues. The degree to which reliability is compromised

by the open architectures of many data handling systems is currently unknown.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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2.4.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities

Many threats and vulnerabilities are direct consequences of emerging open

architectures, which allow extensive information sharing and asset management,

centralized control, and infrastructure isolation. The lack of a fully secure and equally

reliable alternative to the space-based navigation system is also problematic. Moreover,

concern has been expressed about the nature of actual security threats (physical and

cyber) and management’s understanding and ability to prepare for and deal with threats

before they become catastrophic. Recent events have shown that terrorists are willing and

able to unleash chemical and biological agents in mass transit facilities; moreover, it

cannot be ruled out that they are equally willing and able to attack air terminals,

undertake large-scale cyber invasions, or wreak concerted destruction on multiple road

and rail “choke points.”

2.4.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps

Table 2.4 summarizes R&D topics and their corresponding roadmaps for the

transportation infrastructure. The table provides brief descriptions of research topics

grouped by priority (i.e., most important, very important, important); summaries of

research activities for three timeframes (near-term [before 2002], before 2005, and before

2010); and estimates of financial resources required to support the R&D activities for

each timeframe. Tab D contains more detailed descriptions of these research topics,

supporting rationale, goals and challenges, threats and vulnerabilities addressed by the

research, and research roadmap information.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-22

Table 2.4 Summary of Transportation R&D Topics and Roadmapsa

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics

1 Vulnerability

Analysis of

Existing Systems

Investigation of vulnerabilities of existing

transportation systems within and between

operating modes, with special emphasis on

communication and architectures and on

distributed and centralized command and

control systems. (B, A, ATD)

Near-term: Conduct pilot studies of actual operations.

($9 million)

~2005: Develop assessment tools. ($9 million)

~2010: Complete assessments of transportation systems.

($6 million)

7 Real-time

Hazard Threat

and Detection

Monitoring

Development of reduced cost (both unit

and systemwide) detection devices for

widespread use in transport systems.

(B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Ensure applied R&D is under contract.

Develop detection devices. ($8 million)

~2005: Complete prototype testing. ($12 million)

~2010: Commercialize public-private ventures.

($12 million)

13 Intrusion

Detection

Adaptation and development of

customized intrusion detection systems for

both physical and cyber assets of the

transportation system. (ATD, POP)

Near-term: Define requirements and award contracts to

customize intrusion detection systems. ($4 million)

~2005: Complete design and testing of systems. Begin to

implement multiple applications. ($6 million)

~2010: Commercialize intrusion detection for physical and

cyber assets. ($1 million)

15 Threat/

Intelligence

Database and

Network

Creation of a fully integrated facility to

provide intelligence regarding plots for

destroying physical infrastructure and/or

invading electronic control and data

systems. (ATD, POP)

Near-term: Define requirements and award contracts for an

integrated facility for providing intelligence concerning

threats. ($1 million)

~2005: Complete a fully functional facility. ($2 million)

16 Information

Assurance

Identification and implementation of

appropriate artificial-intelligence

(AI)-based technologies for preventing

acceptance of corrupted or erroneous

material into information handling

systems. (A, ATD)

Near-term: Define requirements and use existing tools to

develop AI-based technologies. ($2 million)

~2005: Complete design and testing of new tools.

($3 million)

~2010: Implement and commercialize AI-based

technologies. ($1 million)

17 Software

Assurance

Identification and implementation of

appropriate AI-based technologies for online fault checking and self-diagnosis in

critical day-to-day information handling

systems. (A, ATD)

Near-term: Identify requirements for on-line fault checking

in information systems. ($4 million)

~2005: Complete design and testing of new tools in critical

information systems. ($6 million)

~2010: Complete field implementation and

commercialization. ($1 million)

18 Human Factors

Analysis

Characterization and analysis of problems

and limitations in event preparedness,

prediction, and response specifically

attributable to the human role in operating

the transportation system. (A)

Near-term: Characterize problems and limitations inherent

in preparedness, prediction, and response. Award contract.

($6 million)

~2005: Fully identify and implement changes for

preparedness/prediction. ($4 million)

21 Public/Private

Infrastructure

Security

Responsibility

Analysis of jurisdictions and legal

structures to clarify command and

decision chains for incident mitigation and

situation management involving both

public and private elements of the

transportation infrastructure. (POP)

Near-term: Conduct scoping conferences. Issue requests

for proposals. Select project teams. ($2 million)

~2005: Propose legislation (as needed).
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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Table 2.4 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Very Important R&D Topics

2 Simulation Tool

Development

Creation of a suite of event prediction and

management tools to be used in the

evaluation of system disruptions for each

mode of transport. (A)

Near-term: Identify and evaluate ways to create tools that

can be used in event prediction and management.

($15 million)

~2005: Develop and validate basic tools. ($15 million)

~2010: Validate and deploy completed model suite.

($5 million)

3 Determination of

Risk Perception

of Transport

System

Managers

Identification and formalization of

quantitative measures of risk perception of

transport system managers at all

appropriate decision levels. (B, A)

Near-term: Conduct scoping. ($2 million)

~2005: Complete analyses. ($1 million)

~2010: Update as required.

4 Communication

and Inculcation

of Sound Risk

Management

Principles

Development of information and training

packages on security risks for operating

authorities in all transportation modes;

incorporation of vulnerability

management into daily operations.

(A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Develop training program. ($2 million)

~2005: Complete analyses and have training actively

occurring in all operating functions. ($2 million)

~2010: Identify and implement fully secure emergency

response communications.

6 Emergency

Communications

Identification and implementation of fully

secure emergency response

communications to be employed in the

event of transportation system disruptions

(A)

Near-term: Identify and implement fully secure emergency

response communications. ($6 million)

~2005: Commercialize high-reliability, secure emergency

response communications. ($2 million)

8 Robotics

Development

and Adaptation

Development and adaptation of robotic,

remotely controlled modules for

performing damage assessment by first

responders. (B, A)

Near-term: Develop and adapt robotic, remotely controlled

modules. ($5 million)

~2005: Complete prototype testing. ($7 million)

~2010: Commercialize public/private ventures.

9 Improvement of

In-use

Performance and

Replacement

Functionality of

Transportation

Structures

Development and adaptation of materials

to maximize modularity, portability,

and/or durability of function of permanent

and temporary physical structures and

assets in the transportation system.

(A, POP)

Near-term: Develop and adapt materials to maximize

modularity, portability, and/or durability. ($5 million)

~2005: Complete field testing in up to five applications.

($7 million)

~2010: Commercialize structures.

10 Unified Vehicle/

Guideway

Systems

Hardening

Development and adaptation of materials

technologies to improve the durability and

resistance to damage from physical and

cyber attacks on transportation systems

including vehicles and guideways. (A)

Near-term: Complete scoping studies of materials

technologies. ($2 million)

~2005: Develop prototypes to improve durability of

transport systems. ($2 million)

~2010: Perform field testing, and define and implement

standards. ($2 million)

11 Asset

Management

Development of reliable quantitative

measures to make the most efficient use of

physical and cyber resources in the

transportation system. (A, ATD)

Near-term: Conduct scoping. ($1 million)

~2005: Validate and peer-review prototype tools.

($2 million)

~2010: Commercialize tools. ($1 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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Table 2.4 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Very Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

12 System

Representation

Improvement

Development of improved methods to

manage large quantities of interconnected

and dependent transportation system data

into clearly comprehensible formats

(e.g., visual displays). (ATD, POP)

Near-term: Develop contracts with at least two teams.

Improve methods to manage transport system data in a clear

format. ($20 million)

~2005: Integrate database. Complete prototype tools.

($30 million)

~2010: Implement multiple applications. ($20 million) (full

U.S. coverage assumed)

20 Computer

Emergency

Response and

Emergency

Response and

Recovery

Assessment

Capacity

Building

Development of a body of knowledge and

training materials to support the

management of incidents and of functional

recovery in real time when a significant

emergency occurs. (B, A, POP)

Near-term: Define needs and procedures. Develop research

contracts. ($3 million)

~2005: Deploy trained teams to standby mode at strategic

locations. ($5 million)

~2010: Introduce active information exchange and revise

procedures as needed. ($3 million)

Important R&D Topics

5 Capacity Margin

Analysis

Development of reliable quantitative

estimates of losses associated with the

absence of surplus carrying capacity in

each component of the transportation

system. (A)

Near-term: Sign contract for analytical team(s).

(>$1 million)

~2005: Complete analytical effort. (>$1 million)

14 Cyber

Vulnerability

Data Warehouse

Provision of access to information on

advanced cyber security practices to

owners of data repositories and networks

in the transportation sector. (ATD, POP)

Near-term: Define requirements and award contracts.

($1 million)

~2005: Complete and verify database. Warehouse access

protocol. ($2 million)

19 Recovery

Training

Development of training packages that

maximize communication to and

endorsement of the essential components

of response and recovery by all transport

system operating authorities. (A)

Near-term: Contract for training program development.

($1 million)

~2005: Implement training program. ($2 million)

~2010: Continue training program. ($1 million)

a The order of the R&D topics within a priority category (i.e., most important, very important, important) does not imply

relative importance.

b B = basic; A = applied; ATD = advanced technology development; and POP = proof of principle and validation.

c Resource estimates reflect qualitative, order-of-magnitude judgments. They are intended to be representative of the resources

needed for the R&D topics and are based on assumptions concerning the scope, the expected level of effort, and the pace of

the research. Detailed cost estimates must be prepared in concert with the development of detailed R&D plans.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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2.5 Vital Human Services

2.5.1 Infrastructure Overview

The vital human services infrastructure encompasses three infrastructures: watersupply systems, emergency services, and government services. The water-supply system

infrastructure includes sources of water; reservoirs and holding facilities; aqueducts and

other water transport systems; filtration, cleaning, and treatment systems; distribution

pipelines and other delivery mechanisms; cooling systems; and water systems that deal

with water runoff, wastewater, and fire-fighting needs. The emergency services

infrastructure includes medical, police, fire, rescue systems, and personnel that plan for

and respond to emergencies. The government services infrastructure includes the

capability of federal, state, and local governments to provide essential services to the

public during and after emergencies.

2.5.2 Issues and Trends

Vital human services are very intra- and interdependent infrastructures. For

example, fire fighting is critically intradependent on a reliable water-supply system and

heavily interdependent on the other critical infrastructures identified by the Commission.

For example, emergency response functions could be hampered if part of the

transportation infrastructure were out of order. In this era of reduced taxation and

shrinking government services, it is difficult to maintain these infrastructures and manage

the risk of future threats.

2.5.3 Threats and Vulnerabilities

Water-supply Systems

The vulnerability of community water-supply systems to contamination from

biological agents, chemical agents, or toxins is of considerable concern. There are several

specific instances of terrorist threats to contaminate water supplies with biological or

chemical agents. However, most water-supply systems are fairly safe from such attacks

because hazardous agents do not mix well or survive in water. These agents do, however,

pose a threat if they are inserted at critical points in the system. In addition, water-supply

systems are vulnerable to physical and cyber attacks. Pumping systems are quite

vulnerable and, if destroyed, could shut down a water-supply system for months. Watersupply systems increasingly depend on computer systems, which are vulnerable to cyber

attacks.

Emergency Services

First responders are the most vulnerable entity within the emergency services

infrastructure. These personnel are trained to deal with a variety of materials, but they are

not trained, nor do they have adequate equipment, to deal with weapons of mass
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-26

destruction, such as biological or chemical warfare agents. First responders and the

emergency services infrastructure are vulnerable because detection equipment and

training to handle such emergencies in a timely fashion are not available.

Government Services

The primary vulnerability of the government services infrastructure is its evolving

complexity and increasing dependency on all infrastructures to provide services. The

information and communications, electric power, banking and finance, and transportation

infrastructures are all critical components in providing government services.

2.5.4 Summary of R&D Topics and Roadmaps

Vital human services R&D topics and their corresponding roadmaps are

summarized in Table 2.5. The table provides brief descriptions of research topics grouped

by priority (i.e., most important, very important, or important); summaries of research

activities for three timeframes (near-term [before 2002], before 2005, and before 2010);

and estimates of the financial resources required to support the R&D activities for each

timeframe. Tab E contains more detailed descriptions of these research topics, supporting

rationale, goals and challenges, threats and vulnerabilities addressed by the research, and

research roadmap information.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

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Table 2.5 Summary of Vital Human Services R&D Topics and Roadmapsa

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics

1 Identification and

Characterization of

Biological and

Chemical Agents

Characterization of the behavior of

chemical and biological agents in

water, the effect of water treatment

chemicals on these agents, and the

actual risks posed by these agents in

the water supply system. (B, A)

Near-term: Characterize known agents. ($14 million)

~2005: Identify unknown agents and characterize their

physical and chemical parameters and behavior in different

environments. Develop and implement database and

information exchange mechanisms. ($15 million)

~2010: Continue to identify and characterize unknown

agents. ($25 million)

2 Biological and

Chemical Agent

Detectors

Development of detectors that

provide real-time analysis of water

samples to detect the presence of

biological and chemical agents in

quantities that pose risks to the

population. (B, A)

Near-term: Adapt current slate of detectors for applications

to the water-supply system. ($30 million)

~2005: Improve sensitivity of current detectors, enhance

capability for real-time measurements, and extend detector

capabilities to other agents. ($45 million)

~2010: Develop new generation of detectors to meet more

stringent requirements associated with additional, newer

agents. ($55 million)

3 Supervisory Control

and Data

Acquisition

(SCADA) Systems

Application of information assurance

techniques to water-supply SCADAs;

development of appropriate, costeffective protocols. (A)

Near-term: Develop vulnerability assessment criteria and

techniques for SCADA systems. ($15 million)

~2005: Develop techniques to rectify security problems and

preliminary protocols for design and operation of secure

systems. Conduct pilot tests of improved systems.

($15 million)

~2010: Conduct additional pilot tests and develop a final

set of design and operational protocols. ($25 million)

4 Vulnerability

Assessment of

Water-supply

Systems

Identification and development of

methods, tools, and information to

assess and cost-effectively reduce the

vulnerabilities of water-supply

systems. (A)

Near-term: Develop criteria for evaluating vulnerabilityreduction options. Characterize options. ($9 million)

~2005: Develop and pilot test evaluation methods and

tools. ($12 million)

~2010: Apply lessons learned to methods and tools,

enhance information base, improve methods and tools, and

perform additional validations. ($16 million)

5 Center of Excellence

for Risk Assessment

of Water-supply

Systems

Establishment of a center of

excellence to support communities in

conducting vulnerability and risk

assessments of water-supply systems

and in making decisions regarding

water-supply assurance. (B, A)

Near-term: Establish requirements for development and

operation of center. Start up center. ($8 million)

~2005: Develop/test tools, models, and communication

methods. ($9 million)

~2010: Continue research activities from earlier phases.

Reevaluate the role of the center and adjust accordingly.

($11 million)

6 Detectors and

Detection Systems

for Emergency

Services

Development of inexpensive,

sensitive, rugged, easy to operate,

and portable contaminant detectors

and detection systems for use by first

responders to an emergency. (B, A)

Near-term: Identify requirements for known contaminants.

Adapt robotic technologies for this use. Initiate basic

research into the science of new detectors. ($30 million)

~2005: Produce detectors with first generation

requirements. Continue basic and applied research into new

detectors and robotics. ($45 million)

~2010: Develop/test a new slate of detectors and robotics

for emergency services. ($55 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-28

Table 2.5 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

8 Multihazard, Realtime Simulation and

Modeling

Upgrading of simulation models of

hazards and protective actions to

incorporate real-time data for

emergency managers and decision

makers. (A)

Near-term: Define requirements for such a system and

initiate development. ($17 million)

~2005: Develop and pilot test a prototype system. Integrate

lessons learned into next version of system. ($21 million)

~2010: Conduct additional pilot tests. Develop, test, and

distribute a final set of models constituting the system.

($23 million)

10 Decontamination

Technologies

Identification, characterization,

development, and adaptation of

decontamination technologies to be

used in chemical/biological incidents.

(A)

Near-term: Identify and characterize appropriate existing

technologies. Develop decision needs for evaluating and

selecting decontamination options. ($55 million)

~2005: Focus on developing new decontamination

technologies. Finalize evaluation and selection criteria for

deciding what technologies are most appropriate for any

given application. ($75 million)

~2010: Complete development and demonstration activities

on the technologies examined in the previous timeframe.

Initiate research on another set of technologies.

($105 million)

11 Systems Analysis of

Public Health

Emergency

Response Systems

Comprehensive analysis of the public

health response system to

characterize threats and

vulnerabilities, determine critical

elements and linkages, and identify

technology needs. (A)

Near-term: Conduct surveys on treatment capabilities and

initiate development of analysis tools. ($13 million)

~2005: Develop and pilot test analytical models. Develop a

preliminary set of alternative treatment practices and

conduct emergency preparedness exercises. ($15 million)

~2010: Complete analysis tools. Develop/distribute

information on alternative treatment practices and

emergency preparedness practices. Conduct additional

emergency preparedness exercises. ($17 million)

Very Important R&D Topics

7 Integrated

Emergency

Management System

Development of an integrated

emergency management support

system to assist in effective response

by emergency services personnel. (A)

Near-term: Specify system requirements and work on the

development of a prototype system. ($13 million)

~2005: Develop and test the prototype. Develop and test a

full, integrated system. ($15 million)

~2010: Complete research and deploy system. ($5 million)

12 Support Systems for

Reconfiguring

Government

Development of software support

systems that aid governments in

reconfiguring services during

emergencies. (A)

Near-term: Define basic requirements for such a system

and develop a limited prototype. ($10 million)

~2005: Develop and pilot test more enhanced prototypes.

($12 million)

~2010: Complete development of the system. Test, validate,

and deploy full-scale system. ($16 million)
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-29

Table 2.5 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Important R&D Topics

9 Behavioral/Psychological Studies of

Reactions to

Incidents

Determination of public and

emergency responder reactions to

chemical/biological incidents;

preparation of training and

communication techniques. (A)

Near-term: Establish a baseline of required and anticipated

responses. ($6 million)

~2005: Develop and conduct training courses. Develop and

pilot test enhanced communication techniques. ($6 million)

~2010: Distribute study results and recommendations to

emergency services organizations. ($2 million)

a The order of the R&D topics within a priority category (i.e., most important, very important, important) does not imply

relative importance.

b B = basic; A = applied; ATD = advanced technology development; and POP = proof of principle and validation.

c Resource estimates reflect qualitative, order-of-magnitude judgments. They are intended to be representative of the resources

needed for the R&D topics and are based on assumptions concerning the scope, the expected level of effort, and the pace of

the research. Detailed cost estimates must be prepared in concert with the development of detailed R&D plans.
Sector R&D Topics and Roadmaps

2-30
3-1

Section 3

Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

Common R&D themes are described, and crosscutting issues, as well as

interdependency and complexity R&D needs and topics, are discussed. An integrated

R&D roadmap and estimate of resource requirements are presented.

3.1 Common R&D Themes

A number of common themes

underlie the R&D topics presented in

Section 2. Some of these themes directly

correlate with the objectives of

infrastructure assurance — to reduce

critical vulnerabilities by protecting infrastructures, detecting intrusions, mitigating

the effects of disruptions, assisting in the

management of incidents, and facilitating

recovery. Other themes focus on

developing analytical or supporting

technologies that are needed to help meet

these objectives.

Table 3.1 highlights the common

infrastructure assurance R&D themes. The

first four themes — information assurance,

monitoring and detection, protection and

mitigation, and response and recovery —

correspond to the aforementioned

objectives. The analytical themes include

modeling and simulation, systems

analysis, decision support, and risk

management. The final theme,

vulnerability assessment, provides

supporting baseline information for all of

the other themes.

The sector R&D topics in

Tables 2.1–2.5 can involve research

elements that correspond to one or more of

the themes. For example, monitoring and

Table 3.1 Common R&D Themes

Information Assurance — secure

information while it is stored, being

processed, and in transit

Monitoring and Detection — monitor

systems, detect threats and intrusions, and

provide timely warning

Protection and Mitigation — protect infrastructures physically and mitigate damage

Response and Recovery — aid in rapid

incident response and recovery

Modeling and Simulation — develop models

of components, systems, and infrastructures

and examine the efficacy of alternative

infrastructure assurance strategies and

technologies

Systems Analysis — analyze complex

systems and identify and analyze

infrastructure interdependencies

Decision Support — support timely decision

making with tools, methodologies, and

information systems

Risk Management — determine where best

to allocate resources and how to manage risks

Vulnerability Assessment — assess the

vulnerability of components, systems, and

infrastructures
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-2

detection, modeling and simulation, and decision support are all elements of energy R&D

Topic No. 1 (Real-time Control Mechanisms). Because this topic involves integrating

real-time control systems to support timely decisions, decision support is designated as

the primary theme. The other themes are secondary.

Each of the themes is discussed below. Table 3.2 provides a mapping among

R&D topics and themes. Primary and secondary themes are shown.

3.1.1 Information Assurance

As national infrastructures increasingly depend on computers and networked

information systems to improve efficiency and enhance economic competitiveness, they

also become more vulnerable to potential cyber attacks. In addition, the basic technology

is changing rapidly, open architectures are being pursued, and government policy is

encouraging increased competition. These changes affect both the individual critical

infrastructures and the national interdependent infrastructures, and as well as increase

infrastructure vulnerability as a whole. Significant new investments in R&D are required

to protect the communications infrastructure, and the information created, stored,

processed, and transmitted on it.

3.1.2 Monitoring and Detection

Reliable automated monitoring and detection systems, timely and effective

information collection technologies, and efficient data reduction and analysis tools are

needed to identify and characterize localized or structured attacks against infrastructure.

Technologies are also needed to allow highly toxic chemical and biological agents to be

detected, identified, measured, and subsequently treated. A protection and attack sensing

and warning capability is needed to provide early threat warning to government

organizations and private-sector infrastructure owners and operators, thereby preventing

widespread infrastructure disruptions that have potentially serious consequences on our

national security, economy, and quality of life.

3.1.3 Protection and Mitigation

Real-time system control, infrastructure hardening, and containment technologies

are needed to protect infrastructure systems against threats and mitigate the impacts of

disruptions. Advanced survivability, reliability, and assurance enhancement measures

need to be explored and developed. Technologies also are needed to contain and isolate

the impacts of information system disruptions so that the complete system or dependent

infrastructures are not affected.

3.1.4 Response and Recovery

A wide range of new technologies and tools are needed for planning for,

responding to, and recovering from incidents, such as physical- and cyber-based attacks
Table 3.2 Mapping among R&D Topics and Primary and Secondary Themesa

R&D Topic

No. Title

InformationAssuranceMonitoring andDetectionProtection andMitigationResponse andRecoveryModeling andSimulationSystemsAnalysisDecisionSupportRiskManagementVulnerabilityAssessment

Banking and Finance

 1 Simulation Model Development P

 2 Information Security Analysis P

 3 Intrusion Indication and Warning Tools P S

 4 Systems Reliability Enhancement P S S

 5 Information System Standardization P S

 6 Electronic Commerce Security Enhancement P S S

Energy

 1 Real-time Control Mechanisms S S P

 2 Analysis of Scale and Complexity S P

 3 Vulnerability Assessment P

 4 Information Assurance and Cyber Security P S S

 5 Emergency Response and Recovery

Information Technologies

P

 6 Transmission and Distribution Technologies P

 7 On-line Security Assessment P

 8 Dispersed Generation and Backup Infrastructures P

 9 Critical Consequence Analysis P S

10 Decision Support Systems P S

11 Physical Protection Assessment P

12 Multisensor and Warning Technologies P

13 Emergency Response Capability Enhancement P

14 Cyber Protection Enhancement P

15 Evaluation of Policy Effects P

16 Institutional Barriers P

17 Infrastructure Interdependencies P

Information and Communications

 1 Vulnerability Detection and Analysis S P

 2 Valuation of Information P

 3 Risk Analysis P

 4 Characterization and Notification of Threats P

 5 Intrusion and Incident Detection and Warning P

 6 Response, Recovery, and Reconstitution P

 7 Security Architectures P

 8 Assurance Technologies P

 9 Advanced Concepts and Theory P

10 Management of Information Protection P

11 Characterization of Minimum Infrastructure

for Essential Services

P

12 Encryption Technology P

13 Modeling and Simulation Tools P

Transportation

 1 Vulnerability Analysis of Existing Systems S P

 2 Simulation Tool Development P S

 3 Determination of Risk Perception of Transport

System Managers

P

 4 Communication and Inculcation of Sound Risk

Management Principles

P
Table 3.2 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title

InformationAssuranceMonitoring andDetectionProtection andMitigationResponse andRecoveryModeling andSimulationSystemsAnalysisDecisionSupportRiskManagementVulnerabilityAssessment

Transportation (Cont.)

 5 Capacity Margin Analysis P

 6 Emergency Communications S P

 7 Real-time Hazard Threat

and Detection Monitoring

P

 8 Robotics Development and Adaptation P

 9 Improvement of In-use Performance and

Replacement Functionality

of Transportation Structures

P

10 Unified Vehicle/Guideway Systems Hardening P

11 Asset Management P

12 System Representation Improvement P

13 Intrusion Detection P

14 Cyber Vulnerability Data Warehouse P

15 Threat/Intelligence Database and Network P S

16 Information Assurance P

17 Software Assurance P S

18 Human Factors Analysis P

19 Recovery Training P

20 Computer Emergency Response and Emergency

Response and Recovery Assessment

Capacity Building

P

21 Public/Private Infrastructure

Security Responsibility

P

Vital Human Services

 1 Identification and Characterization of Biological

and Chemical Agents

S P

 2 Biological and Chemical Agent Detectors P

 3 Supervisory Control and Data

Acquisition Systems

P

 4 Vulnerability Assessment

of Water-supply Systems

P

 5 Center of Excellence for Risk Assessment

of Water-supply Systems

P

 6 Detectors and Detection Systems

for Emergency Services

P

 7 Integrated Emergency Management System P

 8 Multihazard, Real-time Simulation and Modeling S P

 9 Behavioral/Psychological Studies of Reactions

to Incidents

P S

10 Decontamination Technologies P

11 Systems Analysis of Public Health

Emergency Response Systems

P S

12 Support Systems for Reconfiguring Government P

a P = primary theme; S = secondary theme.
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-5

that affect local or national infrastructures. This includes crisis and consequence

management systems, personal protective equipment, and emergency medical and

decontamination technologies.

3.1.5 Modeling and Simulation

Modeling and simulation tools and environments (e.g., test beds) need to be

developed for studying infrastructure-related problems and dynamic response

mechanisms under varying conditions. Such tools allow experimentation that cannot be

performed in realistic environments of any appreciable scale. For example, robust

infrastructure and nodal analysis techniques and tools need to be developed for modeling

large-scale distributed/networked systems and interdependent infrastructures. Such tools

would support systems analysis and decision making.

3.1.6 Systems Analysis

Systems analysis needs to be performed to identify critical nodes and components

within infrastructures, to examine infrastructure coupling and interdependencies, and to

help understand the behavior of complex systems. Such analysis also is needed to help

support decisions on how systems can be protected from physical and cyber threats and

degraded gracefully, if necessary, to prevent cascading impacts within and across

infrastructures. That is, comprehensive systems analysis techniques are needed for

addressing physical and cyber security issues in an integrated fashion. Modeling and

simulation tools and vulnerability assessment information support such analyses.

3.1.7 Decision Support

Decision support methodologies, tools, and information systems are needed to

help identify and prioritize critical assets for protection, mitigation, incident management,

and recovery; compute return on investment in competing security technologies; and

develop overall infrastructure assurance investment strategies. Measurable criteria also

need to be established that address national security, economic competitiveness, quality

of life, and other important attributes. Such methodologies, tools, and information

systems would help determine what infrastructure assets are critical, and thus aid in the

priority use of resources in a degraded environment.

3.1.8 Risk Management

Methodologies and tools are needed to identify and manage risks to infrastructures

and information, and to determine where best to allocate limited resources. Research

areas include developing methodologies for measuring the relative risks and the degree of

impact of infrastructure assurance investment strategies; for enhancing the ability of users

to perform consequence assessment and risk analysis; for developing effective risk

management approaches and strategies; for dealing with uncertainties in, or incomplete

knowledge of, threats, vulnerabilities, and protection measures; and for managing risks
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-6

across the multiple components and organizations involved in the infrastructures.

Methods also are needed to more effectively characterize risks and communicate risk

information.

3.1.9 Vulnerability Assessment

The specific weaknesses (vulnerabilities) of infrastructure components and

systems to credible threats need to be identified and analyzed. A comprehensive

awareness also needs to be developed of the inherent susceptibilities of technologies on

which infrastructures and key components are or will be reliant; technologies that

potentially could be used maliciously to disrupt, damage, or destroy infrastructures or key

components; and technologies that could have protective applications and potentially be

used to safeguard infrastructures and components. This baseline information provides a

frame of reference for risk management and investment decisions.

3.2 Crosscutting R&D

Included among the many

topics within each theme are

elements that apply to, or crosscut,

multiple infrastructure sectors

(Figure 3.1). These elements

primarily involve basic and applied

research aimed at increasing the

fundamental knowledge necessary

for developing infrastructure

assurance technologies and

investigating the feasibility and

practicality of proposed

technological solutions. With

careful R&D planning and

coordination, crosscutting elements

could be combined into focused

R&D areas to capitalize on

synergies and reduce resource

requirements. Combining these

elements also would promote

integration of the R&D efforts and reduce the number of “stovepipe” activities

(i.e., narrow, sector-specific activities that are not effectively coordinated across program

boundaries).

Cyber protection for electronic commerce and SCADA systems is one example of

crosscutting R&D within the information assurance theme. Electronic commerce is a

basic component of many infrastructure operations — it includes transfers of financial

assets in banking and finance, power purchases in the electric power system, and

Energy

Banking &

Finance

Transportation

Vital Human

Services Information &

Communications

 Crosscutting

R&D

Figure 3.1 Crosscutting R&D
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-7

confidential information sharing in government services. Similarly, transferring

operational instructions to system control devices via SCADA systems is emerging as a

primary operating method for many infrastructures (e.g., electric power system control of

transmission; control of oil, gas, and water pipelines; and control of switching systems in

transportation). These trends, coupled with the increased use of open and standardized

information and communication architectures, have increased the vulnerability of both

electronic commerce and SCADA systems to cyber attacks. New cyber protection

technologies are needed to improve the security of these information transfer systems and

protect the critical infrastructures they support.

Many basic and applied research topics identified in Table 3.2 (under Information

Assurance theme) support the development and application of cyber protection

technologies. For example, the basic research topic, Advanced Concepts and Theory,

would provide fundamental knowledge for developing advanced information and

communications systems and networks. Similarly, Security Architectures would include

the design of new and improved security architectures composed of components (i.e.,

firewalls, switches, encryption technology) and services that ensure confidentiality,

integrity, and availability for information and communications systems. While Encryption

Technology would develop efficient and cost-effective technologies, Management of

Information Protection is both a basic and applied research topic expected to provide

methods, tools and techniques, and standards that support information protection in

information and communications systems. Finally, Assurance Technologies would

include both basic and applied research to develop tools and techniques that test and

verify that the hardware and software components, and their integration into systems,

meet information and communications system requirements. These research topics

contribute to the development of cyber protection technologies for electronic commerce

and SCADA systems that would benefit all infrastructures.

Another example of crosscutting R&D involves comprehensive and detailed

vulnerability assessments, which are fundamental for making effective decisions about

protecting infrastructures. The R&D topics shown in Table 3.2 (under Vulnerability

Assessment theme) describe rigorous vulnerability assessments that would require new

methods, tools, and techniques not currently available. It is important that vulnerability

assessments are performed consistently across all sectors so that consistent infrastructure

assurance strategies can be developed to protect critical infrastructures. Such assessments

are also important to support interdependency analyses.

The development of large-scale models also would require significant basic and

applied research (under Modeling and Simulation theme in Table 3.2). Advanced

computational algorithms, advanced simulation architectures, approaches for dealing with

complexity, and massive data storage and fast retrieval are some of the basic research

elements that support large-scale modeling. Advanced visualization techniques, userfriendly machine interfaces, and expert systems for information handling are some of the

applied research topics that support large-scale modeling and simulation. These basic and

applied research elements would support the large-scale modeling and simulation topics
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-8

included in the banking and finance, energy, and information and communications R&D

roadmaps.

The detection and effective management of intrusions (cyber and physical) is

another example of crosscutting R&D. The current infrastructure trend is to reduce labor

costs and rely on automated systems. This trend places greater expectations on the

capabilities of these automated systems to provide reliable and timely information.

As Table 3.2 shows, all sector R&D roadmaps identified topics that focus on

monitoring and detecting intrusions. For example, the energy roadmap identified topics

that address both cyber intrusions (e.g., Information Assurance and Cyber Security) and

physical intrusions (e.g., Multisensor and Warning Technologies). Cyber intrusion topics

were identified in the banking and finance (e.g., Intrusion Indication and Warning Tools)

as well as in the information and communications (e.g., Incident Detection and Warning)

roadmaps. R&D topics for water-supply systems focused on detecting chemical or

biological agents (e.g., Identification and Characterization of Biological and Chemical

Agents). Finally, transportation R&D topics were concerned with both cyber and physical

intrusion detection (e.g., Intrusion Detection).

Although each infrastructure has specific needs for detecting and managing

intrusions, significant synergy is present in the type of research being proposed. Cyber

intrusion detection and management systems require basic and applied research to

develop (1) authentication/authorization tools, (2) authentication management systems,

(3) intrusion detection algorithms and technologies, (4) trace-back systems, and

(5) intrusion warning systems. Physical intrusion and management primarily depend on

the accuracy of detectors as well as on cyber components. Key factors in developing

effective detectors are unit cost, reliability, durability, and maintainability, all of which

have crosscutting dimensions.

Similar examples of crosscutting R&D can be found in each theme. As detailed

programs are developed for the R&D topics, particular attention should be given to

identifying such crosscutting R&D elements.

3.3 Interdependency and Complexity R&D

In addition to the crosscutting R&D areas that could reduce investment

requirements, some R&D needs transcend the more narrowly focused R&D defined in the

individual infrastructures. Such research requires investments beyond those associated

with the individual sector topics. Perhaps the most compelling need involves

interdependency and complexity.

This topic, which is not addressed adequately in the individual topics, focuses on

the interdependence between physical and cyber infrastructure components both within

and among the eight critical infrastructures. The complexity and interconnected nature of

our infrastructures are due largely to an increased reliance on telecommunications and
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-9

computer processing for their management. The power and sophistication of cyber

technologies and their widespread integration in the infrastructures increase the likelihood

of unforeseen vulnerabilities and unintended consequences. As a result, not all aspects of

one infrastructure’s dependence on another are documented or understood. Further,

hidden interdependencies are a strong possibility because of complex, and heretofore, not

understood linkages.

The most obvious dependencies between the elements of one or more

infrastructures are those that are linked physically. For example, consider a substation in

an electrical distribution system that provides electric power to a telecommunications

center. Failure or loss of power in the substation would directly affect the

telecommunications center (subject to backup power supplies). The telecommunications

center, in turn, may control the SCADA systems for gas pipelines and water-supply

systems. The gas pipelines may fuel critical gas-fired generators in the electric system,

and so forth. Such dependencies, sometimes called system interactions, must be fully

identified and evaluated.

Other dependencies are not physically linked but are coupled because of location

and exposed environment. For example, a common utility corridor that contains overhead

electric power transmission lines, buried gas pipelines, and telecommunications cables,

dramatizes such dependencies. Collocating infrastructures makes them more susceptible

to such physical hazards as explosion, fire, flood, and seismic events, as well as sabotage.

Subtle interactions are another type of dependency that can exist in complex

systems and occur without a direct link. The failure of a substation, for example, could

cause topological reconfiguration of the electric network, which, in turn, could overload a

similar substation within the system if the demand at that time exceeds the substation

capacity. Here, the direct link does not normally exist, and the failure could occur only if

certain conditions were imposed (e.g., peak load).

Direct system interactions, indirect coupling as a result of collocation, and subtle

interactions usually occur shortly after an incident. However, another type of interaction

can occur over an extended time, that is, time for the effect to propagate through elements

of the infrastructures. Understanding this time delay is important in designing appropriate

detection and mitigation technologies. Infrastructures, such as the water-supply system

and gas and oil storage, which are limited resources subject to depletion, are candidates

for these interactions. Also, the effect of threats (e.g., cyber threats to the banking and

finance infrastructure) requires time to propagate, and, therefore, early detection and

recovery are important factors in controlling their effects.

Natural hazards, such as seismic events or extreme weather, clearly illustrate how

threats can affect multiple infrastructures simultaneously. Such threats also reveal

interdependencies that can complicate or delay mitigation or recovery of a particular

infrastructure from an incident. A major earthquake, for example, can disrupt many
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-10

infrastructures. At the same time, transportation structures, such as bridges and elevated

highways, could collapse, making it difficult to provide vital emergency services.

Consequences of multiple disruptions to our infrastructure range from loss of

human life and property to prolonged loss of shelter, food, and water, and disruption of

financial services. Recovery of particular infrastructures from an incident can be delayed

significantly or thwarted by the simultaneous unavailability of another infrastructure.

Controlling or reducing the effect of interdependencies is a function of the type of

incident, the area of occurrence, and the technology. Further studies should aim to

improve our understanding of vulnerabilities that result from disruption to multiple

infrastructures.

A well-organized, coordinated sabotage event could cause a wide area disruption

of one or more infrastructures. A series of incidents, each planned and timed to reinforce

the effects of the others, could interact (cascade) across critical infrastructures to degrade

the services upon which all depend. The finely tuned, just-in-time interdependence of

infrastructure systems gives potential attackers the capability to leverage localized

damage into widespread system failure. A smaller scope sabotage could also propagate

across several infrastructures because of embedded dependencies that exist within the

architectures of our infrastructures. The complexity of automated systems induces

additional risk. Table 3.3 summarizes several broad R&D topics and roadmaps needed to

address interdependency and complexity issues.

3.4 Integrated Roadmap

Figure 3.2 provides integrated R&D roadmapping information for the three

timeframes. Individual R&D topics are aggregated by theme. Interdependency and

complexity R&D is also shown. The heavy bars indicate peak R&D activity. However, as

indicated by the dashed lines, ongoing R&D is required at a reduced level throughout the

study period.

Vulnerability assessment is an immediate need that will provide a baseline for

focusing all of the other R&D activities. Such assessments must continue over time to

capture the dynamics of the evolving threats and changes in the infrastructures (e.g., as a

result of restructuring, market response mechanisms, or implemented infrastructure

assurance technologies).

The four analytical themes — systems analysis, modeling and simulation, decision

support, and risk management — focus on near- to mid-term R&D. However, some R&D

efforts, particularly those involving modeling and simulation, are expected to extend

through the long-term. Risk management R&D peaks after initial vulnerability

assessments are completed. Applications of the developed tools and methodologies will

likely motivate the need for continuing enhancement and development.
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-11

Table 3.3 Summary of Interdependency and Complexity R&D Topics and Roadmapsa

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Most Important R&D Topics

1 Identification and

Characterization

of Dependencies

Identification of dependencies

(direct and indirect) among

national infrastructures, including

space systems (e.g., Global

Positioning System), and

characterization of how damage

can propagate across multiple

infrastructures. (A)

Near-term: Identify and characterize infrastructure

components, first-order dependencies, and degree of

coupling among infrastructures. ($9 million)

~2005: Identify and characterize higher order

dependencies. Investigate coupling issues and resultant

infrastructure vulnerabilities. ($9 million)

~2010: Identify opportunities for decoupling infrastructures

to reduce vulnerabilities and the potential for propagation of

damage across infrastructures. ($10 million)

2 Analysis of Scale,

Complexity, and

Trends

Characterization of industry trends

(e.g., restructuring) in terms of

interdependence and effects of

scale and complexity (e.g., due to

cyber dependence) on system

behavior. (A)

Near-term: Improve understanding of scale and complexity

in terms of national interdependent infrastructures.

Characterize industry trends that affect scale and

complexity. ($6 million)

~2005: Develop “science” of large-scale, complex,

interdependent infrastructures. ($15 million)

~2010: Develop strategies for mitigating effects of scale

and complexity. ($15 million)

Very Important R&D Topics

3 Systems Analysis

and Simulation

Tools

Development of systems analysis

methods and simulation tools

(e.g., nodal analysis tools) for

assessing potential

interdependence-related

vulnerabilities due to physical and

cyber threats. (B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Develop architectures and robust nodal

analysis techniques and simulation tools to analyze

infrastructure sector vulnerabilities. ($15 million).

~2005: Develop integrated tools to simulate interdependent

infrastructure operation, dynamic feedback mechanisms,

and overall system response to threats. ($25 million)

4 Consequence

Analysis and Risk

Management

Methodologies

and Tools

Development of methods and tools

for assessing potential

consequences (e.g., national

security, economic, social) of

interdependence-related

disruptions and for managing risks.

(A, ATD)

Near-term: Examine historical data (e.g., large natural

disasters and widespread power outages) to develop a

baseline of consequence information. Develop basic risk

management and consequence analysis methods and tools.

($15 million).

~2005: Develop integrated risk management and

consequence analysis tools for all infrastructure sectors and

consequence dimensions. ($21 million).

Important R&D Topics

5 Protection and

Mitigation

Development of protective

measures (including infrastructure

hardening) making the

interdependent infrastructures able

to resist a wider range of potential

threats; system redundancy to

improve reliability and reduce the

chances of cascading impacts; and

infrastructure survivability across a

larger set of challenges.

(B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Identify existing protection and mitigation

measures and technologies, including backup systems,

workarounds, substitutes, and contingency plans, and

characterize roles from an interdependence perspective.

Initiate development of protection and mitigation

technologies. ($27 million)

~2005: Develop and pilot test protection and mitigation

technologies. ($40 million)

~2010: Demonstrate and validate effectiveness of

protection and mitigation technologies. ($50 million)
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-12

Table 3.3 (Cont.)

R&D Topic

No. Title Description (Typeb) Research Roadmap (Resource Estimatec)

Important R&D Topics (Cont.)

6 Response and

Recovery

Development of planning tools for

identifying and evaluating response

and recovery strategies.

(B, A, ATD, POP)

Near-term: Develop tools for identifying and evaluating

response and recovery mechanisms for multiple

infrastructure disruptions. ($13 million)

~2005: Develop and pilot test response and recovery tools

and mechanisms. ($25 million)

~2010: Demonstrate and validate effectiveness of response

and recovery tools and mechanisms. ($25 million)

a The order of the R&D topics within a priority category (i.e., most important, very important, important) does not imply

relative importance.

b B = basic; A = applied; ATD = advanced technology development; and POP = proof of principle and validation.

c Resource estimates reflect qualitative, order-of-magnitude judgments. They are intended to be representative of the

resources needed for the R&D topics and are based on assumptions concerning the scope, the expected level of effort, and

the pace of the research. Detailed cost estimates must be prepared in concert with the development of detailed R&D plans.

Near-Term

(2000-2002)

Mid-Term

(2003-2005)

Long-Term

(2006-2010)

Information Assurance

Modeling and Simulation

Protection and Mitigation

Response and Recovery

Risk Management

Decision Support

Systems Analysis

Vulnerability Assessment

Monitoring and Detection

Indicates ongoing R&D activities at a reduced level of resource requirements

Interdependence Analysis

Figure 3.2 Integrated R&D Roadmap
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-13

Information assurance and monitoring and detection are both multifaceted, longterm R&D activities. As discussed previously, information assurance is critical for

accomplishing the other R&D activities. That is, the rapid proliferation and integration of

telecommunications and computer systems in virtually all aspects of infrastructure

operation have made information assurance a critical activity. Research in the protection

and mitigation and response and recovery themes varies significantly among the

infrastructures, with a focus on near- and mid-term activities. As the dashed lines in

Figure 3.2 indicate, long-term R&D activities are also likely to be required.

3.5 Resource Requirements

Tables 2.1–2.5 provide estimated resource requirements for the recommended

R&D topics. The estimates are aggregated by sector into three timeframes: near-term

(FY2000–2002), mid-term (FY2003–2005), and long-term (FY2006–2010). In preparing

these estimates, each sector team made assumptions about the expected scope, the level

of effort, and the pace of the research. They also made assumptions about government

and private-sector responsibilities and the availability of ongoing R&D that could be

leveraged. They emphasized near-term activities. The results of such activities will help

to shape subsequent R&D effort in the mid- and long-term.

Table 3.4 summarizes the estimated annual resource requirements for the five

infrastructure sectors. A sixth area — Interdependency and Complexity — is also shown.

As described in Section 3.3, this area includes R&D that transcends the more narrowly

focused R&D in the individual infrastructure sectors.

As Table 3.4 shows, the information and communications sector has the largest

R&D portfolio — requiring approximately one-half of the total estimated near-term

resources. More than one-fourth of the near-term resources focus on R&D for the energy

Table 3.4 Estimated Annual (Fiscal Year) Infrastructure Assurance Resource

Requirements for Recommended R&D Topics

Resource Requirements ($ Millions/Fiscal Year)

Near-Term Mid-Term Long-Term

Infrastructure Sector 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006–2010

Banking and Finance 55 50 45 25 15 10 5

Energy 160 180 180 200 200 200 200

Information and Communications 260 350 350 350 350 350 320

Transportation 10 40 40 40 40 40 10

Vital Human Services 50 80 95 95 95 95 70

Interdependency and Complexity 20 30 35 50 45 35 20

Total 555 730 745 760 745 730 625
Integrated R&D Topics and Roadmaps

3-14

infrastructure. Research and development for the other sectors range from approximately

5% to 10% of the total portfolio. Interdependency and complexity R&D requires about

5% of the total portfolio.

Overall, estimated near- and mid-term resource requirements total approximately

$2 billion each, while long-term requirements are estimated to be approximately

$3 billion. Total estimated resource requirements are approximately $7 billion.

Figure 3.3 displays a breakdown of near-term resource requirements by theme. As

shown, information-assurance-related R&D requires approximately one-third of the total

estimated resources. Monitoring and detection R&D represents about 15% of the

portfolio, while vulnerability assessment and modeling and simulation each represent

approximately 10%.

As discussed in Section 3.2, elements of some of the recommended R&D topics

potentially could be combined to capitalize on synergies and to reduce investment

requirements. Identifying such elements and estimating associated cost reductions need to

be priorities of future roadmapping efforts. The common R&D themes discussed in

Section 3.1 provide a starting point for identifying such elements and opportunities for

synergy.

The sector investment profiles generally show that resource requirements increase

during the near term, as the R&D programs gain momentum and achieve critical mass in

terms of researchers and innovative research ideas. Critical requirements-definition and

information-collection activities are

typical front-end, critical path

activities for most R&D topics.

The investment

requirements shown in Table 3.4

are generally of the same order-ofmagnitude as those recommended

in the Commission’s Critical

Foundations report. They show that

a significant increase in investment

is needed to “jump start” a focused,

coordinated, and goal-oriented

national infrastructure assurance

R&D effort. The timeframes

associated with national goals,

when established, will determine

the scope, priority, and pace of the

R&D activities. Annual investment

levels must be adjusted accordingly.

Information

 Assurance

Monitoring &

Detection

Protection &

Mitigation

Response &

Recovery

Modeling &

Simulation Systems

Analys

D

is

ecision

Support

Risk

Management

Vulnerability

Assessment

Figure 3.3 Near-term Resource Requirements

by Theme
4-1

Section 4

Next Steps

The “next steps” observations and recommendations presented in this section

focus on the roadmapping process and preliminary roadmapping results. Organizational

issues relative to how the U.S. government should implement and structure a publicprivate R&D partnership to reduce the vulnerability of our infrastructures are not

addressed. Rather, these issues are the focus of interagency deliberations and high-level

policy directives. Clearly, however, extensive coordination, cooperation, education and

awareness training, and information sharing are required. Establishing and coordinating

R&D agendas and programs to encourage the introduction of increasingly capable

methods for protecting our infrastructure will be especially challenging.

4.1 Essential Elements of Information for Future Roadmapping

The preliminary roadmapping information was developed over a four-month

period without the benefit of formally validated requirements (needs), a baseline

inventory of ongoing infrastructure-assurance-related R&D activities, or full knowledge

of applicable commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) and government-off-the-shelf (GOTS)

technology. All of these elements are essential to ensure that:

• The R&D roadmap comprehensively validated requirements;

• Individual R&D topics are not

addressed elsewhere; and

• New research efforts focus on

critical R&D gaps.

Figure 4.1 depicts the

essential elements of information

needed for developing a

comprehensive and defensible R&D

roadmap. The threats to, and the

vulnerabilities of, our interdependent

infrastructures drive the need for

technology. Research and

development gaps, or shortfalls, are

determined by comparing needs with

ongoing R&D activities, which may be directly or indirectly related to infrastructure

assurance, and applicable COTS and GOTS technology. Clear national infrastructure

Technology

Needs

Ongoing

R&D

Activities

Threats and

Vulnerabilities

R&D Gaps R&D

Roadmap

COTS & GOTS

Technology

National

Infrastructure

Assurance

Goals

and Policies

Next

Steps

Figure 4.1 Essential Elements of Information

for R&D Roadmapping
Observations and Recommendations

4-2

assurance goals and policies provide a basis for prioritizing, sequencing, and determining

the pace of new R&D activities.

The study team recommends that all of the essential elements of information

shown in Figure 4.1 should be assembled so that the preliminary roadmapping

information can be critically reviewed and revised, as needed, to develop an R&D plan to

meet national infrastructure assurance goals. To accomplish this recommendation may

necessitate a formal requirements analysis process along with a survey to identify ongoing

R&D activities within the various departments and agencies. Existing program plans and

databases may contain some of these data. Although the study team members used their

considerable knowledge, insight, and judgment concerning these elements of information,

further study in this area is warranted so that defensible decisions can be made regarding

resource allocation and scheduling.

4.2 Portfolio Considerations

From a national perspective, the relevant ongoing and new R&D activities should

be viewed as an integrated portfolio designed to meet specified infrastructure assurance

goals. As such, this portfolio should meet supporting strategic, technical, and

programmatic objectives. Strategically, it should support the timely development of

technologies that address the threats to, and vulnerabilities of, critical national

infrastructures. Development of such technologies requires working effectively with the

private sector (Figure 1.1). Technically, this portfolio should include basic, applied,

advanced technology development, and proof-of-principle and validation research. This

research should balance funding and development timeframes with degrees of technical

risk. Programmatically, the portfolio should include diverse R&D projects that, to the

extent possible, comprehensively address the requirements of the various infrastructures.

These portfolio considerations should be debated at the interagency level.

4.3 Policy Considerations

As depicted in Figure 4.1, R&D must be consistent with, and responsive to,

national infrastructure assurance policy (e.g., as promulgated through Presidential

Decision Directives), which is intended to assure the continuity and viability of our

nation’s critical infrastructures. Such policy provides a framework for establishing R&D

objectives, setting R&D priorities, and shaping a multiyear, multifaceted R&D portfolio

that is commensurate in scope and scale with the physical and cyber challenges of the

twenty-first century. It also provides a framework for establishing education and

awareness programs, building partnerships with industry, and developing legislative

initiatives intended to reduce vulnerabilities. It is essential, therefore, that R&D be

viewed in a policy context as one element of an integrated national strategy, and that the

effects of policies on private-sector actions (e.g., the commercialization of technologies to

reduce vulnerabilities) be understood more fully and considered in developing an R&D

plan.
Observations and Recommendations

4-3

4.4 Technology Transfer Considerations

Technology transfer and embedding should be an integral part of the R&D

process. The spectrum of R&D identified in this roadmap — basic, applied, advanced

technology development, and proof-of-principle and validation — must be accompanied

by technology development within the private sector to ensure that useful, usable, and

used products are developed. The R&D activities must be linked with commercialization

activities, including engineering and manufacturing development, technical integration,

testing, and fielding (Figure 1.1). Such linkages require effective partnerships with the

private sector, sensitivity to economic and other barriers faced by industry in

commercializing technologies, and the involvement of infrastructure owners and

operators. A technology transfer plan should be prepared along with an R&D plan to

elevate awareness of the issues and accelerate the introduction of infrastructure assurance

technologies.

4.5 Interdependency and Complexity Considerations

A new “science” of interdependent, complex systems should be developed. This

science would provide the theoretical foundation for developing the diverse vulnerability

assessment, monitoring, predictive modeling, and consequence analysis technologies

needed for addressing infrastructure assurance issues as they relate to the critical national

infrastructures. Concepts, such as system complexity, interaction, and coupling, should be

examined.

In-depth research on the complexities and interdependencies in the national

infrastructure is needed. Each of our national infrastructures depends to varying degrees

on the other infrastructures. Some dependencies are readily apparent, such as the strong

reliance of the infrastructures on information and communications systems and electric

power. Other dependencies are second or third order and appear only after long time

periods or under extreme conditions. Researchers should identify and characterize such

interdependencies and the associated dynamic feedback and response mechanisms.

Research that evaluates historical incidents and probes possible scenarios would lead to a

more focused research agenda.

A national repository of validated infrastructure-related models and data

(including GIS information) should be established and linked closely to test beds. The test

beds would be used to test the nation’s infrastructure under actual working conditions,

and test analysis, assessment, advanced predictive modeling, and other modeling and

simulation systems and tools. Such a repository would support prevention, mitigation,

incident response, and recovery objectives in both planning and analysis and crisis

situations.
Observations and Recommendations

4-4

4.6 Other Ingredients for a Successful R&D Program

Various forums, such as conferences, workshops, and joint planning meetings,

should be established. These forums would bring together researchers, private-sector

infrastructure owners and operators, and government agencies to discuss common

problems and requirements, to establish research agenda, and to promote creative

thinking on solutions to infrastructure problems.

R&D-related training, education, and awareness programs should be established.

These programs would enhance our “intellectual” infrastructure by helping to build a

cadre of knowledgeable people (“infrastructure practitioners”) within the federal

government and the private sector. Also, they would ensure that the new technologies,

methods, and tools that result from R&D efforts are implemented and used properly.
5-1

Section 5

Subject-matter Experts and Reviewers

The individuals listed below assisted the study team by helping to identify R&D

topics and technical and programmatic issues; by providing background materials and

studies for review; by facilitating coordination and outreach activities; and by providing

insight into the value of R&D for protecting and assuring our critical national

infrastructures. Many also provided valuable review comments on earlier drafts of this

report.

Banking and Finance

Dennis Dutterer — BOT Clearing Corporation

Bill Finnamore — INTEGRION

Don Hawkins — TCF Bank Holding Company

Don Karmzian — Chicago Board of Trade

Joe Kubat — Security Information Automation Corporation

Edward Kufeldt — Defense Finance and Accounting Service

Bruce W. Moulton — Fidelity Investments

Kit Nedham — Banking Information Technology Secretariat

John Petersen — LaSalle National Bank

Dan Schutzer — Citibank

John Shelton — On-Line Banking Association

Tom Vartanian — Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson

Energy

John Bartenhagen — Defense Energy Support Center, Defense Logistics Agency

Don Bennett — Department of Defense

Dennis Berry — Sandia National Laboratories

Stanley S. Borys — Institute of Gas Technology

David Cauffman — Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory

Michael Delurey — Booz-Allen & Hamilton, Inc.

David Diehl — Joint Program Office for Special Technology Countermeasures

Jerry Hadder — Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Mark Hanson — Energy Center of Wisconsin

Terry Hawkins — Los Alamos National Laboratory

William D. Ingle — Gas Research Institute

Maurice Katz — Department of Energy

James Mackey — National Infrastructure Protection Center/Dept. of Energy

Frank Olken — Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Carl Piechowski — Department of Energy

Leslie Poch — Argonne National Laboratory

David Reichle — Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Subject-matter Experts and Reviewers

5-2

Fred Roach — Los Alamos National Laboratory

Ron Skelton — Private consultant

Jared R. Smith — Institute of Gas Technology

Robert Thomas — Cornell University

Jim VanCoevering — Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Gregory V. Welch — Commonwealth Edison

Sonny White — Department of Defense

Information and Communications

Michael Ackerman  National Library of Medicine/National Institutes of Health

Kathleen Bailey  Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Matt Bishop  University of California – Davis

Larry Brandt  National Science Foundation

Wayne Bryant  NASA Langley Research Center

Tom Burke  General Services Administration

Blaine Burnham  National Security Agency

Mel Ciment  National Science Foundation

Harry DeMaio  Deloitte and Touche Security Services

Virgil D. Gligor  University of Maryland

John Grimes  Raytheon

Bill Hunteman  Los Alamos National Laboratory

Bijan Jabbari  George Mason University

William E. Johnston  Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Butler Lampson  Microsoft Corporation

Karl Levitt  University of California – Davis

Teresa Lunt  Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

John McLean  Naval Research Laboratory

Robert Meushaw  National Security Agency

Larry Nelson  AT&T

Deborah Phillips — Defense Information Systems Agency

Mel Sobotka  Booz-Allen & Hamilton, Inc.

Stephen L. Squires  Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

Dennis D. Steinauer  National Institute of Standards and Technology

David Tennenhouse  Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

Fred Wentland  Department of Commerce

Transportation

Roy Allen — Transportation Technology Center, Inc.

Douglas Anson — Los Alamos National Laboratory

Allison Conway-Smith — Amtrak

Mark S. Daskin — Northwestern University

Richard Davis — Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Jerry Edwards — U.S. Army Physical Security Equipment Management Office
Subject-matter Experts and Reviewers

5-3

Thomas Falvey — Department of Transportation

Dan Foth — American Public Transit Association

Kevin Harnett — Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

Susan Hower — Science and Engineering Associates

Bill Hubbard — National Institute for Environmental Renewal

Paul Johnson — Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Pat Maier — Boyd Maier and Associates

Michael Maston — Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Howard Moody — Association of American Railroads

Gary Murphy — Microsensors, Inc.

Anita Parker — Computer Sciences Corporation

Rin Saunders — Computer Sciences Corporation

David Schulz — Northwestern University

LeRon Smith — Los Alamos National Laboratory

John Sorenson — Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Frank Southworth — Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Maurice Stewart — Department of Defense

Pat Student — Union Pacific Railroad

Richard A. Swanson — Computer Science Corporation

William C. Thompson — Union Pacific Railroad

Joyce Wegner — Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory

Athanasios Ziliaskopoulos — Northwestern University

Vital Human Services

Philip H. Burgi — U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Paul E. Davies — Boston Police Department

Richard W. Hutchinson — Chemical and Biological Defense Command

William G. Nagle — New York City/Mayor’s Office of Emergency Management

Donald E. Newsom — Argonne National Laboratory

Irwin M. Pikus, Commissioner — Department of Commerce

Stanley Ponce — U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Geary W. Sikich — Logistical Management Systems Corporation

Elaine M. Sudanowicz — Boston Emergency Management Agency

David Tomasko — Argonne National Laboratory

Summary Report

Anita Jones — University of Virginia

Doug Sergent — Joint Program Office for Special Technology Countermeasures

Larry Schwartz — University of California

(Many of the subject-matter experts listed above also reviewed the summary

report.)
Subject-matter Experts and Reviewers

5-4

Coordination Support

Don Bennett — Department of Defense

Maureen Clapper — Department of Energy, New Brunswick Laboratory