10-i

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 10-1

10.2 OVERVIEW OF THE NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS......................................... 10-1

10.2.1 National Energy Savings................................................................................................ 10-1

10.2.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit........................................................................ 10-2

10.3 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY TRENDS......................................................................... 10-4

10.3.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies in 2019 .............................................................. 10-4

10.3.2 Projected Efficiency Trends After 2019 ........................................................................ 10-8

10.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ............................................................................. 10-12

10.4.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit ........................................................................ 10-12

10.4.2 Shipments..................................................................................................................... 10-15

10.4.3 Equipment Stock.......................................................................................................... 10-15

10.4.4 Annual Energy Consumption....................................................................................... 10-15

10.4.5 Site-to-Power Plant Energy Use Factor....................................................................... 10-16

10.4.6 Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Factors................................................................................... 10-16

10.5 NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS............................................ 10-17

10.5.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit........................................................................................ 10-18

10.5.2 Annual Operating Cost per Unit .................................................................................. 10-20

10.5.3 Equipment Stock.......................................................................................................... 10-22

10.5.4 Increases in Total Annual Installed Cost ..................................................................... 10-22

10.5.5 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost ..................................................................... 10-22

10.5.6 Discount Factor............................................................................................................ 10-22

10.5.7 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost and Savings............................................... 10-23

10.6 RESULTS .................................................................................................................... 10-23

10.6.1 National Energy Savings.............................................................................................. 10-23

10.6.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit...................................................................... 10-25

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.3.1 Commercial Packaged Boilers: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in Commercial Applications in 2019...................................... 10-4

Table 10.3.2 Commercial Packaged Boilers: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in Residential Applications in 2019........................................ 10-6

Table 10.4.1 Average Annual Boiler Energy Use for the Base and Standards Cases in 

2019.................................................................................................................. 10-12

Table 10.4.2 Upstream Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 2014)...................................... 10-17

Table 10.5.1 Average Installed Cost of Commercial Packaged Boilers in 2019 for the 

Base and Standards Cases (2013$) .................................................................. 10-19

Table 10.5.2 Average Annual Operating Cost of Commercial Packaged Boilers in 2019 

for the Base and Standards Cases (2013$)....................................................... 10-21
10-ii

Table 10.6.1 Primary National Energy Savings for Commercial Packaged Boilers 

(quads).............................................................................................................. 10-24

Table 10.6.2 Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers (quads)................................................................................................. 10-25

Table 10.6.3 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit for Commercial Packaged Boilers, 

Discounted at 3-Percent (billion 2013$).......................................................... 10-26

Table 10.6.4 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit for Commercial Packaged Boilers, 

Discounted at 7- Percent (billion 2013$)........................................................ 10-27

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.3.1 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers 

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr............................................................ 10-8

Figure 10.3.2 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr.............................................................................................. 10-9

Figure 10.3.3 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers 

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr.......................................................... 10-10

Figure 10.3.4 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr............................................................................................ 10-11

Figure 10.4.1 Combined Adjustment Factor for Commercial Packaged Boilers Energy 

Use in Commercial Sector ............................................................................... 10-14

Figure 10.4.2 Combined Adjustment Factor for Commercial Packaged Boilers Energy 

Use in Residential Sector................................................................................. 10-15

Figure 10.4.3 Primary to Site Energy Use Factor for Commercial Packaged Boiler 

Electricity Use.................................................................................................. 10-16
10-1

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter examines selected national impacts attributable to each efficiency level (EL) 

considered for commercial packaged boilers. The results presented here include: (1) national 

energy savings (NES); (2) operating cost savings; (3) increased total installed costs; and (4) the 

net present value (NPV) of the difference between the value of operating cost savings and 

increased total installed costs. 

The calculations were performed using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is 

accessible on the Internet 

(www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/79). The 

spreadsheet model, termed the National Impact Analysis (NIA) model, calculates energy savings 

and NPV for the nation. Details regarding and instructions for using the NIA model are provided 

in appendix 10-A.

The NIA model incorporates the shipments model that DOE used to project future 

purchases of commercial packaged boilers. 

10.2 OVERVIEW OF THE NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10.2.1 National Energy Savings

DOE calculates annual NES as the difference between two projections: the base case 

(without new standards) and a standards case (with new standards). The following expression 

represents the calculation of annual national energy savings (NESy):

Eq. 10.1

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of each annual NES over the lifetime of 

equipment shipped in the period that extends from a standard’s assumed compliance date for 30 

years. The following equation represents this calculation:

Eq. 10.2

DOE calculates AEC by multiplying the number or stock of a given type of equipment

(by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (also by vintage). The following equation represents 

the calculation of the national and each regional AEC:

NES y = AECnatl−base AECnatl−std

_

NEScum = ∑NES y
10-2

Eq. 10.3

Where:

AEC = annual energy consumption each year for the Nation in quadrillion British thermal units 

(Btus), or quads, summed over vintages of the equipment stock, STOCKV,

NESy = national annual energy savings (quads),

NEScum = national cumulative energy savings (quads),

STOCKV = stock of equipment (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for which 

DOE calculated annual energy consumption,

UECV = annual energy consumption per equipment in kilowatt-hours (kWh); electricity 

consumption is converted from site energy to power plant energy (quads) by applying a timedependent conversion factor,

natl = designates the quantity corresponding to the Nation,

base = designates the quantity corresponding to the base case,

std = designates the quantity corresponding to the standards case,

y = year in the projection,

cum = cumulative over the projection period, and

V = year in which the equipment was purchased as a new unit.

The stock of equipment depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the given 

equipment. As described in chapter 9, DOE projects shipments for the base case and each 

standards case. Based on the user samples in the LCC and PBP analysis, DOE estimates that 

5.5-percent of commercial packaged boilers are shipped to residential households. The national 

energy saving from commercial packaged boilers in the standards cases includes the saving from 

both commercial and residential boiler users.

10.2.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit

The NPV is the value in the present of a time-series of costs and savings. The following 

equation describes NPV: 

Eq. 10.4

Where:

PVS = present value of savings in operating cost (including costs for energy, repair, and 

maintenance), and 

PVC = present value of increase in total installed cost (including costs for equipment and 

installation). 

DOE determines the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions:

= ∑ V ×UECV AEC STOCK

NPV PVS PVC _ =
10-3

Eq. 10.5

Eq. 10.6

DOE calculates the total annual savings in operating cost by multiplying the number or 

stock of a given equipment (by vintage) by its per-unit operating cost savings (also by vintage). 

DOE calculates the total annual increase in installed cost by multiplying the number or stock of a 

given equipment (by vintage) by its per-unit total installed cost increase (also by vintage). Total 

annual savings in operating cost and increases in installed cost are calculated using the following

equations.

Eq. 10.7

Eq. 10.8

Where:

OCS = total annual savings in operating cost each year summed over vintages of the equipment

stock, STOCKV,

TIC = total annual increase in installed cost each year summed over vintages of the equipment

stock, STOCKV,

DF =discount factor in each year,

STOCKV = stock of equipment (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for which 

DOE calculated annual energy consumption,

UOCSV = annual per-unit savings in operating cost,

UTICV = annual total per-unit increase in installed cost,

V = year in which the equipment was purchased as a new unit, and 

y = year in the projection.

As mentioned in section 10.2.1, DOE estimates that 5.5-percent of commercial packaged 

boilers are shipped to residential households. The net present value of commercial consumer

benefits in the standard cases includes the benefits from both commercial and residential boiler 

users.

DOE determines the PVC for each year from the compliance date of the standard through

2048. DOE determines the PVS for each year from the compliance date of the standard until the 

year when units purchased in 2019−2048 retire. DOE calculates costs and savings as the 

difference between each standards case and the base case. 

PVS =∑OCSy × DFy

PVC = ∑TICy × DFy

OCS y = ∑STOCKV ×UOCSV

TICy = ∑STOCKV ×UTICV
10-4

DOE calculate a discount factor from the discount rate and the number of years between 

the “present” (2014, the year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the 

costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings.

10.3 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY TRENDS

A key component of the NIA is the energy efficiency of boilers projected over time for 

the base case (without new standards) and for each of the standards cases (with potential new 

standards). 

10.3.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies in 2019

For each commercial packaged boiler equipment class, DOE develops a distribution of 

efficiencies in the base cases for 2019 (the assumed compliance date for new standards), as 

described in chapter 8. In each standards case, DOE assumes a “roll-up” scenario to establish the 

efficiency distribution for 2019. Equipment efficiencies in the base case that do not meet the 

standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. All efficiency 

shares in the base case that are above the standard under consideration would not be affected.

Table 10.3.1 and Table 10.3.2 present the efficiency distributions in 2019 for the base case and 

standards case used in commercial applications and residential applications, respectively. 

Table 10.3.1 Commercial Packaged Boilers: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in Commercial Applications in 2019

Market Share (percent)

Efficiency Level Base Case Efficiency Level (EL)

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 80% TE - Baseline 16.1

1 81% TE 16.6 32.7

2 82% TE 62.4 62.4 95.1

3 85% TE - Max Tech 4.9 4.9 4.9 100.0

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% CE - Baseline 78.8

1 83% CE 18.5 97.3

2 84% CE - Max Tech 2.7 2.7 100.0

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% TE - Baseline 55.3

1 83% TE 20.0 75.3

2 85% TE 18.6 18.6 93.9

3 87% TE - Max Tech 6.1 6.1 6.1 100.0

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 84% CE - Baseline 51.6

1 85% CE 29.6 81.3

2 86% CE - Max Tech 18.7 18.7 100.0

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 77% TE - Baseline 69.5
10-5

1 78% TE 20.8 90.3

2 80% TE - Max Tech 9.7 9.7 100.0

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 77% TE - Baseline 43.9

1 78% TE 37.0 80.9

2 79% TE 13.4 13.4 94.3

3 81% TE - Max Tech 5.7 5.7 5.7 100.0

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE - Baseline 48.4

1 82% TE 41.4 89.7

2 83% TE - Max Tech 10.3 10.3 100.0

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE - Baseline 35.3

1 82% TE 20.7 56.1

2 83% TE 39.0 39.0 95.1

3 85% TE - Max Tech 4.9 4.9 4.9 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 80% TE - Baseline 11.1

1 83% TE 12.5 23.6

2 85% TE 23.4 23.4 47.1

3 87% TE 5.9 5.9 5.9 53.0

4 92% TE 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 67.8

5 95% TE 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 93.8

6 98% TE - Max Tech 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% CE - Baseline 16.4

1 84% CE 29.6 46.0

2 86% CE 11.9 11.9 57.9

3 94% CE 39.1 39.1 39.1 97.0

4 97% CE - Max Tech 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% TE - Baseline 27.7

1 83% TE 25.4 53.2

2 84% TE 14.8 14.8 68.0

3 87% TE 23.3 23.3 23.3 91.3

4 98% TE - Max Tech 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 84% CE - Baseline 31.4

1 86% CE 47.5 78.9

2 88% CE 15.3 15.3 94.2

3 97% CE - Max Tech 5.8 5.8 5.8 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 79% TE - Baseline 18.3

1 80% TE 47.2 65.5

2 81% TE 23.9 23.9 89.3

3 83% TE - Max Tech 10.7 10.7 10.7 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 79% TE - Baseline 20.3
10-6

1 80% TE 42.8 63.0

2 83% TE - Max Tech 37.0 37.0 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE - Baseline 31.9

1 83% TE 54.1 86.0

2 84% TE 9.6 9.6 95.6

3 86% TE - Max Tech 4.4 4.4 4.4 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE - Baseline 45.5

1 83% TE 30.6 76.1

2 86% TE - Max Tech 23.9 23.9 100.0

Table 10.3.2 Commercial Packaged Boilers: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and 

Standards Cases in Residential Applications in 2019

Market Share (percent)

Efficiency Level Base Case Efficiency Level (EL)

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 80% TE - Baseline 16.2

1 81% TE 16.9 33.2

2 82% TE 62.6 62.6 95.8

3 85% TE - Max Tech 4.2 4.2 4.2 100.0

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% CE - Baseline 80.4

1 83% CE 17.7 98.1

2 84% CE - Max Tech 1.9 1.9 100.0

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% TE - Baseline 56.0

1 83% TE 19.4 75.4

2 85% TE 19.3 19.3 94.7

3 87% TE - Max Tech 5.3 5.3 5.3 100.0

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 84% CE - Baseline 53.7

1 85% CE 27.8 81.5

2 86% CE - Max Tech 18.5 18.5 100.0

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 77% TE - Baseline 68.6

1 78% TE 21.0 89.6

2 80% TE - Max Tech 10.4 10.4 100.0

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 77% TE - Baseline 44.3

1 78% TE 36.9 81.2

2 79% TE 13.1 13.1 94.3

3 81% TE - Max Tech 5.7 5.7 5.7 100.0

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE - Baseline 49.4

1 82% TE 40.5 89.9

2 83% TE - Max Tech 10.1 10.1 100.0
10-7

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE - Baseline 35.2

1 82% TE 22.1 57.3

2 83% TE 38.7 38.7 96.0

3 85% TE - Max Tech 4.0 4.0 4.0 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 80% TE - Baseline 11.1

1 83% TE 10.6 21.7

2 85% TE 25.2 25.2 46.9

3 87% TE 6.9 6.9 6.9 53.8

4 92% TE 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 68.8

5 95% TE 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 95.8

6 98% TE - Max Tech 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% CE - Baseline 15.1

1 84% CE 24.4 39.5

2 86% CE 12.8 12.8 52.3

3 94% CE 44.2 44.2 44.2 96.5

4 97% CE - Max Tech 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% TE - Baseline 25.7

1 83% TE 26.5 52.2

2 84% TE 15.6 15.6 67.8

3 87% TE 24.9 24.9 24.9 92.7

4 98% TE - Max Tech 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 84% CE - Baseline 28.4

1 86% CE 48.2 76.6

2 88% CE 15.3 15.3 91.9

3 97% CE - Max Tech 8.1 8.1 8.1 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 79% TE - Baseline 19.3

1 80% TE 45.9 65.3

2 81% TE 24.2 24.2 89.4

3 83% TE - Max Tech 10.6 10.6 10.6 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 79% TE - Baseline 21.2

1 80% TE 41.2 62.4

2 83% TE - Max Tech 37.6 37.6 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE - Baseline 32.2

1 83% TE 54.2 86.4

2 84% TE 9.1 9.1 95.5

3 86% TE - Max Tech 4.5 4.5 4.5 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE - Baseline 46.0

1 83% TE 31.1 77.1

2 86% TE - Max Tech 22.9 22.9 100.0
10-8

10.3.2 Projected Efficiency Trends After 2019

The market shares of mechanical draft condensing gas-fired and oil-fired hot water 

boilers are projected to gradually increase. Figure 10.3.1 shows the assumed shares of 

mechanical draft gas-fired hot water boilers ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr at each EL

in replacement applications (the shares in new construction are slightly different). DOE 

estimates that there would be linear growth in the overall market share of mechanical draft 

condensing gas-fired hot water residential boilers ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr from 

47.9-percent in 2019 to 78.3-percent in 2048. The shares of the three condensing ELs (EL 4, EL 

5 and EL 6) and the four non-condensing ELs are kept in the same proportional relationship as in 

2019.

Figure 10.3.1 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

For standards cases 1 through 3, DOE applies the above described efficiency trend for the 

condensing boiler market share. The difference between these standards cases and the base case 

is in the market shares of the various non-condensing boiler designs (ELs 0 through 3). For 

standard cases 4 through 6, the overall condensing boiler market share goes to 100 percent in 

2019 and remains at that level. The shares of the specific condensing boiler designs (ELs 4

through 6) remain at the levels shown in the tables above.

Figure 10.3.2 shows the shares of mechanical draft gas-fired hot water boilers >2,500,000 

Btu/hr at each EL. The shares of the three non-condensing ELs are kept in the same proportional 

relationship as in 2019. DOE estimates linear growth in the overall market share of mechanical 

draft condensing gas-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers >2,500,000 Btu/hr from 39.8-

percent in 2019 to 60.4-percent by 2048. 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040

Base case efficiency distribution

EL0 EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL5 EL6
10-9

Figure 10.3.2 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

For standards cases 1 and 2, DOE applies the above described efficiency trend for the 

condensing boiler market share. The difference between these standards cases and the base case 

is in the market shares of the various non-condensing boiler designs (ELs 0 through 2). For 

standard cases 3 and 4, the overall condensing boiler market share goes to 100 percent in 2019

and remains at that level. The shares of the specific condensing boiler designs (ELs 3 and 4) 

remain at the levels shown in the tables above.

Figure 10.3.3 shows the assumed shares of mechanical draft oil-fired hot water boilers

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr at each EL in replacement applications (the shares in 

new construction are slightly different). DOE estimates that there would be linear growth in the 

overall market share of condensing mechanical draft oil-fired hot water boilers ≥300,000 Btu/hr 

and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr, from 9.0-percent in 2019 to 33.8-percent in 2048. The shares of the 

condensing EL (EL 4) and the three non-condensing ELs are kept in the same proportional 

relationship as in 2019.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040

Base case efficiency distribution

EL0 EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL5 EL6
10-10

Figure 10.3.3 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers 

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

For standards cases 1 through 3, DOE applies the above described efficiency trend for the 

condensing boiler market share (EL 4). The difference between these standards cases and the 

base case is in the market shares of the non-condensing boilers (ELs 0 through 3). For standard 

case 4, the condensing boiler market share goes to 100-percent in 2019 and remains at that level.

Figure 10.3.4 shows the shares of mechanical draft oil-fired hot water boilers >2,500,000 

Btu/hr at each EL. The shares of the three non-condensing ELs are kept in the same proportional 

relationship as in 2019. DOE estimated linear growth in the overall market share of condensing 

mechanical draft oil-fired hot water commercial packaged boilers >2,500,000 Btu/hr from 18.7-

percent in 2019 to 58.0-percent by 2048. 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040

Base case efficiency distribution

EL0 EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL5 EL6
10-11

Figure 10.3.4 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

For standards cases 1 and 2, DOE applies the above described efficiency trend for the 

condensing boiler market share (EL 3). The difference between these standards cases and the 

base case is in the market shares of the non-condensing boilers (ELs 0 through 2). For standard 

case 3, the condensing boiler market share goes to 100-percent in 2019 and remains at that level.

DOE estimates that the market shares of condensing boilers of other equipment classes 

will be negligible during the period of analysis (2019-2048).

DOE considers that the standards for Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial 

Packaged Boilers ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr, and Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boilers >2,500,000 Btu/hr are already scheduled to change on March 2, 

2022 from 77-percent thermal efficiency to 79-percent thermal efficiency. DOE assumed that in 

2022 all natural draft steam boilers below 79-percent thermal efficiency will roll-up to 79-

percent thermal efficiency to meet the standard.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040

Base case efficiency distribution

EL0 EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL5 EL6
10-12

10.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

The inputs for calculating national energy savings are:

• average annual energy consumption per unit (UEC),

• shipments,

• equipment stock (STOCKV),

• annual energy consumption for the Nation (AEC), and

• power plant primary energy use factor (src_conv).

10.4.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit 

For each equipment class, DOE presents the per-unit annual energy consumption as a 

function of equipment efficiency in chapter 7, Energy Use Analysis. Because the per-unit annual 

energy consumption is directly dependent on efficiency, DOE uses the shipments-weighted 

energy efficiency of the base and standards cases presented in section 10.3, along with the annual 

energy use data presented in chapters 7 and 8, to estimate the shipment-weighted average annual 

per-unit energy consumption (UEC) under the base and standards cases. 

Table 10.4.1 presents the base case and standards case shipment-weighted annual UECs 

by efficiency level (EL) for the four equipment classes with the largest market shares in 2019. 

The values are a weighted average for commercial and residential boiler users. The table shows

the energy use of commercial packaged boilers associated with higher-efficiencies. The values 

after 2019 change according to the projected efficiency trends in each case.

Table 10.4.1 Average Annual Boiler Energy Use for the Base and Standards Cases in

2019

Equipment Class Base 

Case

TSLs

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 1745.2 1741.5 1734.2 1675.4 NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 796.0 794.3 790.9 763.7 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 7325.6 7243.5 7145.4 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 2114.5 2090.9 2062.7 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 1318.2 1308.2 1269.8 1242.0 NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 690.7 685.5 667.8 653.0 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 7039.9 6994.6 6924.1 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 2366.8 2351.7 2328.1 NA NA NA NA
10-13

(kWh/yr)

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 1577.4 1548.9 1531.0 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 764.5 750.6 741.8 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 7553.9 7462.7 7382.2 7291.1 NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 2086.2 2061.1 2039.0 2013.9 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 1716.6 1705.7 1686.3 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 864.3 858.8 849.0 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 7802.2 7766.3 7709.8 7526.7 NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 2555.8 2544.0 2525.5 2465.6 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 1822.5 1813.7 1802.6 1782.1 1744.0 1705.2 1654.4

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 1976.8 1969.5 1960.2 1943.2 2331.3 2281.0 2215.0

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 5861.4 5832.2 5754.2 5432.2 5243.9 NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 3104.6 3092.2 3059.1 3666.5 3543.4 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 1463.1 1457.8 1447.8 1411.0 1279.3 NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 1564.4 1559.2 1549.5 1514.0 1986.2 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 6878.0 6827.0 6699.3 6220.7 NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 3645.6 3620.2 3556.3 4651.2 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 1587.9 1584.1 1571.2 1537.5 NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 1541.3 1537.7 1525.8 1494.4 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 7372.5 7351.7 7172.7 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 3172.0 3163.4 3089.0 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr
10-14

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 1675.9 1662.0 1644.0 1605.5 NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 1694.0 1680.6 1663.4 1626.7 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use 

(MMBtu/yr) 7751.6 7659.3 7441.4 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Electricity Use 

(kWh/yr) 3921.8 3876.2 3768.7 NA NA NA NA

DOE considers the effects of changes in climate and building shell efficiency on 

commercial packaged boilers’ energy use. The climate adjustment factor is based on the forecast 

of heating degree days (HDD) by region from Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO 2014), which 

shows a declining trend due to warmer weather.1 Regional building-shell efficiency factors are

also from AEO 2014. For both factors, DOE applies regional weights to make the factors specific 

to commercial and residential users of commercial packaged boilers. Figure 10.4.1 and Figure 

10.4.2 show the adjustment factor for boiler energy use in the commercial sector and residential 

sectors, respectively.

DOE does not apply a rebound effect to adjust its estimates of energy savings because it 

is unlikely that commercial consumers will use a higher-efficiency boiler more than a baseline 

one.

Figure 10.4.1 Combined Adjustment Factor for Commercial Packaged Boilers Energy 

Use in Commercial Sector

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Adjustment Factor for Energy 

Use in Commercial Sector
10-15

Figure 10.4.2 Combined Adjustment Factor for Commercial Packaged Boilers Energy 

Use in Residential Sector

10.4.2 Shipments

DOE projects shipments for each equipment class under the base case and all standards 

cases (see chapter 9). Several factors impact projected shipments, including total installed costs, 

operating cost, and equipment lifetime. As noted earlier, the increased total installed cost of more 

efficient equipment causes some customers to forego equipment purchases. Consequently, 

shipments projected under the standards cases are lower than under the base case. DOE believes 

it would be inappropriate to count energy savings that result from reduced shipments due to 

standards. Therefore, DOE does not calculate annual energy consumption for the base case using 

the base case shipments projection. Instead, for each comparison of a standards case with the 

base case, DOE uses shipments associated with that particular standards case. As a result, all the 

calculated energy savings are due to higher energy efficiency in the standards case.

10.4.3 Equipment Stock

The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime 

of a given equipment class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each 

year. The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the 

given year. DOE assumes that equipment have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. 

The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function. 

Refer to chapter 8 for further details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis. 

10.4.4 Annual Energy Consumption

For each equipment class, DOE calculates the total national site (i.e., the energy 

consumed at the household or establishment) annual energy consumption (AEC). Annual energy 

consumption is the product of the AEC per unit (also termed the unit energy consumption 

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Adjustment Factor for Energy 

Use in Residential Sector
10-16

(UEC)) and the number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in UEC 

from year to year.

10.4.5 Site-to-Power Plant Energy Use Factor

DOE accounts for electricity use by commercial boilers. DOE calculates primary energy 

savings (power plant consumption) from site electricity savings by applying a factor to account 

for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. DOE 

derives marginal site-to-power plant factors based on the version of the National Energy 

Modeling System (NEMS) that corresponds to AEO 2013.

2 The factors change over time in 

response to projected changes in the types of power plants projected to provide electricity to the 

country. Figure 10.4.3 shows the site-to-power plant factors from 2019 to 2040. For years after 

2040 (the last year in the AEO), DOE maintains the 2040 value.

Figure 10.4.3 Primary to Site Energy Use Factor for Commercial Packaged Boiler

Electricity Use

10.4.6 Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Factors

The full-fuel-cycle (FFC) measure includes point-of-use (site) energy, the energy losses 

associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, and the energy consumed 

in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. To complete the fullfuel-cycle by encompassing the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or 

distributing primary fuels, which are referred to as “upstream” activities, DOE develops

multipliers using the data and projections generated by the NEMS used for AEO 2014. The AEO 

provides extensive information about the energy system, including projections of future oil, 

natural gas and coal supply, energy use for oil and gas field and refinery operations, and fuel 

consumption and emissions related to electric power production. This information can be used to 

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2015 2025 2035 2045

Power plant (Btu) / Site (Wh)
10-17

define a set of parameters representing the energy intensity of energy production. The method 

used to calculate FFC energy multipliers is described in appendix 10-B.

Table 10.4.2 shows the upstream energy multipliers used for commercial packaged 

boilers for selected years. The multipliers are applied to site energy. For years after 2040 (the last 

year in the AEO), DOE maintains the 2040 value.

Table 10.4.2 Upstream Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 2014)

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electricity 1.043 1.044 1.045 1.046 1.047 1.047 1.047

Natural Gas 1.108 1.110 1.112 1.114 1.114 1.114 1.114

Petroleum Fuels 1.176 1.176 1.175 1.173 1.171 1.170 1.170

10.5 NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS

Listed below are the inputs to DOE’s calculation of the NPV of costs and savings.

• Total installed cost per unit,

• annual per-unit savings in operation cost,

• shipments,

• equipment stock (STOCKV),

• total annual increases in installed cost (TIC),

• total annual operating cost (OCS),

• discount factor (DF),

• present value of costs (PVC), and

• present value of savings (PVS).

The total annual increase in installed cost is equal to the annual change in the total perunit installed cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the shipments 

projected for each EL. As with calculating energy savings, DOE does not use base-case 

shipments to calculate total annual installed costs for all of the equipment classes. DOE uses the 

projected shipments and stock for each EL to calculate costs.

The annual operating cost includes energy, repair, and maintenance costs. The total 

annual savings in operating cost are equal to the change in the annual operating costs (difference 

between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments projected for each 

candidate standard level. As with calculating total annual installed costs, DOE uses standardscase shipments to calculate savings in operating cost. 
10-18

10.5.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit 

DOE describes the total per-unit installed cost for each equipment class as a function of 

equipment efficiency in chapter 8, Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis. Because the 

total per-unit annual installed cost depends directly on efficiency, DOE uses the shipmentsweighted efficiencies for the base and standards cases, combined with the total installed cost 

presented in chapter 8, to estimate the shipments-weighted total per-unit average annual installed 

cost under the base and standards cases. Table 10.5.1 shows the average installed cost of 

commercial packaged boilers in 2019 for the base and standards cases for the four equipment

classes with the largest market shares. For reasons discussed in chapter 8 (section 8.2.1.4), DOE 

uses a constant price assumption for the default projection in the NIA. 
10-19

Table 10.5.1 Average Installed Cost of Commercial Packaged Boilers in 2019 for the 

Base and Standards Cases (2013$)

Product Class Base 

Case

Efficiency Levels

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$40,568 $40,927 $42,014 $49,012 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

$134,389 $140,976 $149,813 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$59,527 $60,509 $70,499 $71,997 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

$135,313 $140,162 $146,359 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$35,635 $40,090 $43,933 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

$78,924 $85,706 $97,120 $111,935 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$45,909 $47,954 $52,115 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

$83,674 $87,909 $95,442 $124,987 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$89,415 $90,256 $91,635 $94,714 $99,269 $111,696 $129,086 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

$263,534 $266,664 $277,304 $337,852 $354,899 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$89,084 $90,025 $91,836 $98,810 $156,739 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

$194,999 $201,631 $211,684 $366,549 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$73,861 $74,665 $77,779 $87,801 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

$156,466 $159,387 $192,413 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$76,446 $79,270 $83,682 $95,045 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler 

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

$135,974 $147,544 $184,962 NA NA NA NA
10-20

10.5.2 Annual Operating Cost per Unit 

The per-unit annual operating cost includes costs for energy, repair, and maintenance. 

DOE determines the per-unit annual savings in energy costs by multiplying the per-unit annual 

savings in energy consumption developed for each equipment class by the appropriate energy 

price. DOE considers operating costs separately for commercial and residential boiler users.

Estimates of the per-unit annual energy consumption for the base case and each standards 

case were presented in section 10.4.1. DOE projects the per-unit annual energy consumption for 

the base case for all equipment classes by applying a growth trend in efficiency. 

Energy prices and trends in energy prices are described in chapter 8. DOE projects

energy prices based on annual changes in average commercial and residential energy prices in 

EIA’s AEO 2014 reference case scenario.1

DOE describes the total per-unit repair and maintenance costs for each equipment class 

as a function of equipment efficiency in chapter 8. Because the per-unit repair and maintenance 

costs depend directly on efficiency, DOE uses the efficiencies for the base and standards cases 

presented in section 10.3, combined with the repair and maintenance costs presented in chapter 

8, to estimate the per-unit average repair and maintenance costs under the base and standards 

cases. 

Table 10.5.2 shows the average operating cost of commercial packaged boilers in 2019

for the base and standards cases for the four equipment classes with the largest market shares. 

The operating costs change over time, depending on change in annual energy use and energy 

prices.
10-21

Table 10.5.2 Average Annual Operating Cost of Commercial Packaged Boilers in 2019

for the Base and Standards Cases (2013$)

Product Class Base 

Case

Efficiency Levels

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$14,835 $14,804 $14,742 $14,242 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 

Btu/hr

$59,159 $58,496 $57,703 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$34,965 $34,702 $33,683 $32,945 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 

Btu/hr

$184,917 $183,728 $181,875 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$13,009 $12,773 $12,626 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 

Btu/hr

$61,547 $60,805 $60,149 $59,406 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$45,553 $45,264 $44,747 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 

Btu/hr

$205,820 $204,871 $203,381 $198,551 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$15,740 $15,665 $15,569 $15,392 $15,105 $14,769 $14,330

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 

Btu/hr

$48,068 $47,829 $47,190 $44,621 $43,075 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$38,941 $38,800 $38,533 $37,555 $34,125 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water 

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 

Btu/hr

$180,653 $179,316 $175,961 $163,526 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$13,160 $13,129 $13,022 $12,743 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr

$60,132 $59,962 $58,503 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

$44,556 $44,186 $43,707 $42,685 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam 

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 

Btu/hr

$204,686 $202,248 $196,494 NA NA NA NA
10-22

10.5.3 Equipment Stock

The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime 

of a given equipment class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each 

year. The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the 

given year. DOE assumes that equipment have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. 

The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function. 

Refer to the specific section for each equipment class in chapter 9 for further details on the 

survival functions that DOE uses in its analysis. 

10.5.4 Increases in Total Annual Installed Cost 

The increase in total annual installed cost for equipment under any given standards case 

is the product of the increase in total installed cost per unit attributable to the standard and the 

number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in total installed cost from 

year to year. 

10.5.5 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost

The savings in total annual operating cost for any given candidate standards level is the 

product of the annual per-unit savings in operating cost attributable to the standard and the 

number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for the year-to-year differences in annual 

operating cost savings. 

As previously discussed, DOE does not apply a rebound effect to adjust its estimates of 

energy savings because it is unlikely that commercial consumers will use a higher-efficiency 

boiler more than a baseline one. 

10.5.6 Discount Factor

DOE multiplies monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the 

present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

Eq. 10.9

Where:

r = discount rate, 

y = year of the monetary value, and 

yP = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE estimates NPV using both a 3-percent and a 7-percent real discount rate, in 

accordance with the Office of Management and Budget’s guidance to Federal agencies on the 

development of regulatory analysis, particularly section E therein: Identifying and Measuring 

Benefits and Costs.

3

 DOE defines the present year as 2014.

( y yp ) _

( r )

DF

1+

1 =
10-23

10.5.7 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost and Savings

The present value of increased installed cost is the difference between installation cost in 

each standards case and the base case discounted to the present and summed throughout the 

period over which DOE is considering the installation of units (from the compliance date of 

standards, 2019, through 2048). DOE calculates annual increases in installed cost as the 

difference in total installed cost for new equipment purchased each year, multiplied by the 

shipments in the standards case.

The present value of annual savings in operating cost is the difference between the base 

case and each standards case discounted to the present and summed throughout the period from 

the compliance date, 2019, to the time when the last unit installed in 2019-2048 is retired from 

service.

Savings represent decreases in operating cost (including electricity, repair, and 

maintenance) associated with the more energy efficient equipment purchased in each standards 

case compared to the base case. Total annual savings in operating cost are the savings per unit 

multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that survive in a particular year. 

10.6 RESULTS

10.6.1 National Energy Savings 

This section provides the national energy savings that DOE calculates for each of the ELs

analyzed for commercial packaged boilers. See Table 10.6.1 for primary energy savings and

Table 10.6.2 for FFC energy savings. DOE bases the inputs to the NIA model on weightedaverage values, producing results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of 

values such as is generated by the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis. 
10-24

Table 10.6.1 Primary National Energy Savings for Commercial Packaged Boilers 

(quads)

Product Class Efficiency Levels

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.004 0.026 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.010 0.023 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.003 0.005 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.005 0.012 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.018 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.008 0.050 0.099 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.002 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.005 0.014 0.044 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.023 0.052 0.105 0.207 0.332 0.524

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.039 0.145 0.570 0.875 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.006 0.017 0.059 0.201 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.011 0.037 0.136 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.017 0.053 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.010 0.099 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.015 0.035 0.077 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.035 0.118 NA NA NA NA
10-25

Table 10.6.2 Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers (quads)

Product Class Efficiency Levels

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.005 0.029 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.011 0.025 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.004 0.006 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.006 0.014 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.020 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.009 0.056 0.111 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.002 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.006 0.017 0.051 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.025 0.058 0.117 0.230 0.370 0.583

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.044 0.161 0.634 0.975 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.007 0.020 0.069 0.235 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.013 0.044 0.159 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.019 0.059 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.011 0.110 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.018 0.041 0.091 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.041 0.139 NA NA NA NA

10.6.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit

This section provides results of calculating the NPV for each candidate standard level 

considered for commercial packaged boilers. Results, which are cumulative, are shown as the 

discounted dollar value of the net savings. See Table 10.6.3 for NPV results with a 3-percent

discount rate applied and Table 10.6.4 for 7-percent discount rate. DOE bases the inputs to the 

NIA model on weighted-average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather 

than a distribution of values such as produced by the life-cycle cost and payback period analyses.

A negative NPV indicates that the costs of a standard at a given efficiency level exceed the 

savings.
10-26

Table 10.6.3 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers, Discounted at 3 Percent (billion 2013$)

Product Class Efficiency Levels

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.011 0.072 NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.036 0.079 NA NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.009 0.025 0.054 NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.057 0.144 NA NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.010 0.024 NA NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.034 0.151 0.300 NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.009 0.025 NA NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.072 0.185 0.576 NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.047 0.088 0.129 0.203 (0.202) (0.908)

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.087 0.267 0.523 1.268 NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.052 0.148 0.487 0.323 NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.105 0.406 0.650 NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.000 (0.009) (0.067) NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.016 0.096 NA NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.137 0.296 0.591 NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.356 1.106 NA NA NA NA 
10-27

Table 10.6.4 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit for Commercial Packaged 

Boilers, Discounted at 7 Percent (billion 2013$)

Product Class Efficiency Levels

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.003 0.019 NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.014 0.030 NA NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.003 0.007 0.016 NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.022 0.055 NA NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.003 0.002 NA NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.016 0.054 0.108 NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.003 0.010 NA NA NA NA 

Natural Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial Packaged 

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.028 0.072 0.229 NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.007 0.006 (0.016) (0.046) (0.358) (0.861)

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.017 0.034 (0.132) 0.035 NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.013 0.037 0.117 (0.315) NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Hot Water Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.031 0.131 0.025 NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr (0.004) (0.022) (0.089) NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Gas-Fired Steam Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 (0.024) NA NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial 

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.038 0.076 0.131 NA NA NA 

Mechanical Draft Oil-Fired Steam Commercial 

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.109 0.318 NA NA NA NA 
10-28

REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 

2014 with Projections to 2040, 2014. Washington, DC. 

<http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/>

2. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with Projections to 

2040, 2013. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383. 

<http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2013).pdf>

3. U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Circular A-4: Regulatory Analysis, 

2003. (Posted September 17, 2003) (Last accessed April, 2013.) 

<http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/regulatory_matters_pdf/a4.pdf>