### 10

- i CHAPTER 10 . NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 10

- 1

10.2 OVERVIEW OF THE NATI ONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

................................ ......... 10

- 1

10.2.1 National Energy Savings

................................ ................................ ................................ 10

- 1

10.2.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 2

10.3 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY TRENDS

................................ ................................ ......... 10

- 4

10.3.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies in 2019

................................ .............................. 10

- 4

10.3.2 Projected Efficiency Trends After 2019

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 8

10.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS

................................ ................................ ............. 10

- 12

10.4.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 12

10.4.2 Shipments

................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 10

- 15

10.4.3 Equipment Stock

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 10

- 15

10.4.4 Annual Energy Consumption

................................ ................................ ....................... 10

- 15

10.4.5 Site

- to

- Power Plant Energy Use Factor

................................ ................................ ....... 10

- 16

10.4.6 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Factors

................................ ................................ ................... 10

- 16

10.5 NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS

................................ ............ 10

- 17

10.5.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 18

10.5.2 Annual Operating Cost per Unit

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 20

10.5.3 Equipment Stock

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 10

- 22

10 .5.4 Increases in Total Annual Installed Cost

................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 22

10.5.5 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost

................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 22

10.5.6 Discount Factor

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 10

- 22

10.5.7 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost and Savings

................................ ............... 10

- 23

10.6 RESULTS

................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 10

- 23

10.6.1 National Energy Savings

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

- 23

10.6.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit

................................ ................................ ...... 10

- 25

LIST OF T ABLES

Table 10.3.1 Commercial Packaged Boilers: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in Commercial Applications in 2019

................................ ...... 10

- 4

Table 10.3.2 Commercial Packaged Boilers: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in Residential Applications in 2019

................................ ........ 10

- 6

Table 10.4.1 Average Annual Boiler Energy Use for the Base and Standards Cases in

2019

................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 12

Table 10.4.2 Upstream Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 2014)

................................ ...... 10

- 17

Table 10.5.1 Average Installed Cost of Commercial Packaged Boilers in 2019 for the

Base and Standards Cases (2013$)

................................ ................................ .. 10

- 19

Table 10.5.2 Average Annual Operating Cost of Commercial Packaged Boilers in 2019

for the Base and Standards Cases (2013$)

................................ ....................... 10

- 21

### 10

- ii Table 10.6.1 Primary National Energy Savings for Commercial Packaged Boilers

(quads)

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 10

- 24

Table 10.6.2 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle National Energy Savings for Commercial Packaged

Boilers (quads)

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 25

Table 10.6.3 Net Present Value of Consumer B enefit for Commercial Packaged Boilers,

Discounted at 3

- Percent (billion 2013$)

................................ .......................... 10

- 26

Table 10.6.4 Net Present Value of Consumer B enefit for Commercial Packaged Boilers,

Discounted at 7

- Percent (billion 2013$)

................................ ........................ 10

- 27

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.3.1 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

................................ ............................ 10

- 8

Figure 10.3.2 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

>2,500,0 00 Btu/hr

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

- 9

Figure 10.3.3 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

................................ .......................... 10

- 10

Figure 10.3.4 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boilers

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

................................ ................................ ............................ 10

- 11

Fi gure 10.4.1 Combined Adjustment Factor for Commercial Packaged Boilers Energy

Use in Commercial Sector

................................ ................................ ............... 10

- 14

Figure 10.4.2 Combin ed Adjustment Factor for Commercial Packaged Boilers Energy

Use in Residential Sector

................................ ................................ ................. 10

- 15

Figure 10.4.3 Primary to Site Energy U se Factor for Commercial Packaged Boiler

Electricity Use

................................ ................................ ................................ .. 10

- 1610-1 

### CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANAL YSES

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter examines selected national impacts attributable to each efficiency level ( EL )

considered for commercial packaged boiler s. The results presented here include: (1) national

energy savings (NES); (2) operating cost savings; (3) inc reased total installed costs; and (4) the

net present value (NPV) of the difference between the value of operating cost savings and

increased total installed costs.

The calculations were performed using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is

acc essible on the Internet

( www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/79 ) . The

spreadsheet model, termed the National Impact An alysis (NIA) model, calculates energy savings

and NPV for the nation. Details regarding and instructions for using the NIA model are provided

in a ppendix 10

- A.

The NIA model incorporates the shipments model that DOE used to project future

purchases of co mmercial packaged boiler s.

10.2 O VERVIEW OF THE N ATIONAL I MPACT A NALYSIS

10.2.1 National Energy Savings

DOE calculates annual NES as the difference between two projections: the base case

(without new standards) and a standards case (with new standards). The following expression

represents the calculation of annual nation al energy savings ( NES

y 

### ) :

Eq. 10

. 1

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of each annual NES over the lifetime of

equipment shipped in the peri od that extends from a standard’s assumed compliance date for 30

years. The following equation represents t his calculation:

Eq. 10

. 2

DOE calculate s AEC by multiplying the number or stock of a given type of equipment

(by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (also by vintage). The following equation represents

the calculation of the national and each regional AEC : std natl base natl y 

### AEC AEC NES

− − 

### =

_



# ∑

= y cum 

### NES NES10-2 

### Eq. 10

. 3

Where:

AEC = annual energy consumpti on each year for the Nation in quadrillion British thermal units

(Btus), or quads, summed over vintages of the equipment stock

, STOCK V



### , NES

y 

### = national annual energy savings (quads)

, NES

cum 

### = national cumulative energy savings (quads)

, STOCK V 

### = stock of equipment (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for which

DOE calculated annual energy consumption

, UEC V 

### = annual energy consumption per equipment in kilowatt

- hours (kWh); electricity

consumption is converted from site energy to power p lant energy (quads) by applying a time

dependent conversion factor

, natl

= designates the quantity corresponding to the Nation

, base

= designates the quantity corresponding to the base case

, std

= designates the quantity corresponding to the standards case

,

y = year in the projection,

cum = cumulative over the projection period

, and

V = year in which the equipment was purchased as a new unit.

The stock of equipment depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the given

equipment . As described in chapte r 9, DOE project s shipments for the base case and each

standards case. Based on the user samples in the LCC and PBP analysis, DOE estimate s that

5.5

- percent of commercial packaged boiler s are shipped to residential households

. T he national

energy saving from commercial packaged boiler s in the standard s cases includes the saving from

both commercial and residential boiler users.

10.2.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit

The NPV is the value in the present of a time

- series of costs an d savings. The following

equation describes NPV:

Eq. 10

. 4

Where:

PVS

= present value of savings in operating cost (including costs for energy, repair, and

maintenance)

, and

PVC

= present value of increase in total installed cost (including costs for equipment and

installation).

DOE determine s the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions : 

# ∑ × = V V 

### UEC STOCK AEC



## PVC PVS NPV

_ 

## =10-3 

### Eq. 10

. 5

Eq. 10

. 6

DOE calculate s the total annual savings in operating cost by multiplying the number or

stock of a given equipment (by vintage) by its per

- unit operating cost savings (also by vintage).

DOE calculate s the total annual increase i n installed cost by multiplying the number or stock of a

given equipment (by vintage) by its per

- unit total installed cost increase (also by vintage). Total

annual savings in operating cost and increases in installed cost are calculated using the following

equations.

Eq. 10

. 7

Eq. 10

. 8

Where:

OCS

= total annual savings in operating cost each year summed over vintages of the equipment

stock, STOCK V 

### , TIC = total annual increase in installed cost each year summed over vintages of the equipment

stock, STOCK V 

### , DF = discount factor in each year

, STOCK V 

### = stock of equipment (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for which

DOE calculated annua l energy consumption

, UOCS V 

### = annual per

- unit savings in operating cost

, UTIC V 

### = annual total per

- unit increase in installed cost

, V = year in which the equipment was purchased as a new unit

, and

y = year in the projection

.

As mentioned in section 10.2.1 , DOE estimate s that 5.5

- percent of commercial packaged

boiler s are shipped to residential households . The net present value of commercial consumer

benefits in the standard cases includes the benefits from both commercial and residential boiler

users.

DOE determine s the PVC for each year from the compliance date of the standard through

20 4 8 . DOE determine s the PVS for each year from the compliance date of the standard until the

year when units purchased in 20 19

− 20 4 8 retire. DOE calculate s costs and savings as the

difference between each standards case and the base case. 

# ∑

y y 

### DF OCS PVS × =



# ∑

y y 

### DF TIC PVC × =



# ∑

V V y 

### UOCS STOCK OCS × =



# ∑

V V y 

### UTIC STOCK TIC × =10-4 

### DOE calculate a discount factor from the discount rate and the number of years between

the “present” ( 2014 , the year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the

costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings.

10.3 P ROJECTED E FFICIENCY T RENDS

A key component of the NIA is the energy efficiency of boilers projected over time for

the base case (without new standards) and for each of the standards cases (with potential new

standards).

10.3.1 Base and Standards Case Efficiencies in 2019

For each commercial packaged boiler equipmen t class, DOE develop s a distribution of

efficiencies in the base case s for 20 19 (the assumed compliance date for new standa rds), as

described in chapter 8 . In each standards case, DOE assume s a “roll

- up” scenario to establish the

efficiency distribution fo r 2019

. Equipment efficiencies in the base case that d o not meet the

standard under consideration would “roll up” to meet the new standard level. All efficienc y

shares in the base case that are above the standard under consideration would not be affected.

Table 10.3.1 and Table 10.3.2 present the efficiency distributions in 2019 for the base case and

standards case used in commercial applications and residential applications

, respectively

.

Table 10.3.1 Commercial Packaged Boiler s: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in Commercial Applications in 20 19

Market Sh are (percent)

Efficiency Level Base Case Efficiency Level (EL)

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 80% TE

- Baseline 16.1

1 81% TE 16.6 32.7

2 82% TE 62.4 62.4 95.1

3 85% TE

- Max Tech 4.9 4.9 4.9 100.0

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% CE

- Baseline 78.8

1 83% CE 18.5 97.3

2 84% CE

- Max Tech 2.7 2.7 100.0

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% TE

- Baseline 55.3

1 83% TE 20.0 75.3

2 85% TE 18.6 18.6 93.9

3 87% TE

- Max Tech 6.1 6.1 6.1 100.0

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 84% CE

- Baseline 51.6

1 85% CE 29.6 81.3

2 86% CE

- Max Tech 18.7 18.7 100.0

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 77% TE

- Baseline 69.510-5 1 78% TE 20.8 90.3

2 80% TE

- Max Tech 9.7 9.7 100.0

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 77% TE

- Baseline 43.9

1 78% TE 37.0 80.9

2 79% TE 13.4 13.4 94.3

3 81% TE

- Max Tech 5.7 5.7 5.7 100.0

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE

- Baseline 48.4

1 82% TE 41.4 89.7

2 83% TE

- Max Tech 10.3 10.3 100.0

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE

- Baseline 35.3

1 82% TE 20.7 56.1

2 83% TE 39.0 39.0 95.1

3 85% TE

- Max Tech 4.9 4.9 4.9 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 80% TE

- Baseline 11.1

1 83% TE 12.5 23.6

2 85% TE 23.4 23.4 47.1

3 87% TE 5.9 5.9 5.9 53.0

4 92% TE 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.8 67.8

5 95% TE 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 93.8

6 98% TE

- Max Tech 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% CE

- Baseline 16.4

1 84% CE 29.6 46.0

2 86% CE 11.9 11.9 57.9

3 94% CE 39.1 39.1 39.1 97.0

4 97% CE

- Max Tech 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% TE

- Baseline 27.7

1 83% TE 25.4 53.2

2 84% TE 14.8 14.8 68.0

3 87% TE 23.3 23.3 23.3 91.3

4 98% TE

- Max Tech 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 84% CE

- Baseline 31.4

1 86% CE 47.5 78.9

2 88% CE 15.3 15.3 94.2

3 97% CE

- Max Tech 5.8 5.8 5.8 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 79% TE

- Baseline 18.3

1 80% TE 47.2 65.5

2 81% TE 23.9 23.9 89.3

3 83% TE

- Max Tech 10.7 10.7 10.7 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 79% TE

- Baseline 20.310-6 1 80% TE 42.8 63.0

2 83% TE

- Max Tech 37.0 37.0 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE

- Baseline 31.9

1 83% TE 54.1 86.0

2 84% TE 9.6 9.6 95.6

3 86% TE

- Max Tech 4.4 4.4 4.4 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE

- Baseline 45.5

1 83% TE 30.6 76.1

2 86% TE

- Max Tech 23.9 23.9 100.0



### Table 10.3.2 Commercial Packaged Boiler s: Efficiency Distributions for the Base and

Standards Cases in Residential Applications in 20 19

Market Share (percent)

Efficiency Level Base Case Efficiency Level (EL)

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 80% TE

- Baseline 16.2

1 81% TE 16.9 33.2

2 82% TE 62.6 62.6 95.8

3 85% TE

- Max Tech 4.2 4.2 4.2 100.0

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% CE

- Baseline 80.4

1 83% CE 17.7 98.1

2 84% CE

- Max Tech 1.9 1.9 100.0

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% TE

- Baseline 56.0

1 83% TE 19.4 75.4

2 85% TE 19.3 19.3 94.7

3 87% TE

- Max Tech 5.3 5.3 5.3 100.0

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 84% CE

- Baseline 53.7

1 85% CE 27.8 81.5

2 86% CE

- Max Tech 18.5 18.5 100.0

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 77% TE

- Baseline 68.6

1 78% TE 21.0 89.6

2 80% TE

- Max Tech 10.4 10.4 100.0

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 77% TE

- Baseline 44.3

1 78% TE 36.9 81.2

2 79% TE 13.1 13.1 94.3

3 81% TE

- Max Tech 5.7 5.7 5.7 100.0

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE

- Baseline 49.4

1 82% TE 40.5 89.9

2 83% TE

- Max Tech 10.1 10.1 100.010-7 Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE

- Baseline 35.2

1 82% TE 22.1 57.3

2 83% TE 38.7 38.7 96.0

3 85% TE

- Max Tech 4.0 4.0 4.0 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 80% TE

- Baseline 11.1

1 83% TE 10.6 21.7

2 85% TE 25.2 25.2 46.9

3 87% TE 6.9 6.9 6.9 53.8

4 92% TE 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 68.8

5 95% TE 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 95.8

6 98% TE

- Max Tech 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% CE

- Baseline 15.1

1 84% CE 24.4 39.5

2 86% CE 12.8 12.8 52.3

3 94% CE 44.2 44.2 44.2 96.5

4 97% CE

- Max Tech 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 82% TE

- Baseline 25.7

1 83% TE 26.5 52.2

2 84% TE 15.6 15.6 67.8

3 87% TE 24.9 24.9 24.9 92.7

4 98% TE

- Max Tech 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 84% CE

- Baseline 28.4

1 86% CE 48.2 76.6

2 88% CE 15.3 15.3 91.9

3 97% CE

- Max Tech 8.1 8.1 8.1 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 79% TE

- Baseline 19.3

1 80% TE 45.9 65.3

2 81% TE 24.2 24.2 89.4

3 83% TE

- Max Tech 10.6 10.6 10.6 100.0

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 79% TE

- Baseline 21.2

1 80% TE 41.2 62.4

2 83% TE

- Max Tech 37.6 37.6 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE

- Baseline 32.2

1 83% TE 54.2 86.4

2 84% TE 9.1 9.1 95.5

3 86% TE

- Max Tech 4.5 4.5 4.5 100.0

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

0 81% TE

- Baseline 46.0

1 83% TE 31.1 77.1

2 86% TE

- Max Tech 22.9 22.9 100.010-8 

### 10.3.2 Project ed Efficiency Trends After 20 19

The market shares of mechanical draft condensing gas

- fired and oil

- fired hot water

boilers are projected to gradually increase

. Figure 10.3.1 shows the assumed shares of

mechanical draft gas

- fired hot water boilers ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr at each EL

in replacement applications (the shares in new construction are slightly different)

. DOE

estimate s that there would be linear growth in the overall market share of mechanical draft

condensing gas

- fired hot water residential boilers ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr from

47.9

- percent in 2019 to 78.3

- percent in 2048

. The shares of the three condensing ELs (EL 4, EL

5 and EL 6) and the four non

- condensing ELs are kept in the same proportional relationship as in

2019

.

Figure 10.3.1 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler s

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

For standards cases 1 through 3, DOE applie s the above described efficiency trend for the

condensing boiler market share. The difference between these standards cases and the base case

is in the market shares of the various non

- condensing boiler designs (ELs 0 through 3) . For

standard cases 4 through 6, the overall condensing boil er market share goes to 100 percent in

20 19 and remains at that level. The shares of the specific condensing boiler designs (ELs 4

through 6) remain at the levels shown in the tables above.

Figure 10.3.2 shows the shares of mechanical draft gas

- fired hot water boilers >2,500,000

Btu/hr at each EL. The shares of the three non

- condensing ELs are kept in the same proportional

relationship as in 20 19

. DOE estimate s linear growth in the overall market share of mechanical

draft condensing gas

- fired hot water commercial packaged boiler s >2,500,000 Btu/hr from 39.8

- percent in 20 19 to 60.4

- percent by 204 8

. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2010 2020 2030 2040Base case efficiency distribution



### EL0 EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL5 EL610-9 

### Figure 10.3.2 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler s

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

For standards cases 1 and 2 , DOE applie s the above described efficiency trend for the

condensing boiler market share. The difference between these standards cases and the base case

is in the market shares of the various non

- condensing boiler designs (ELs 0 through 2 ). For

standard cases 3 and 4

, the overall condensing boiler market share goes to 100 percent in 20 19

and remains at that level. The shares of the specific condensing boiler designs (ELs 3 and 4 )

remain at the levels shown in the tables above.

Figure 10.3.3 shows the assumed shares of mechanical draft oil

- fired hot water boilers

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr at each EL in replacement applications (the shares in

new construction are sli ghtly different). DOE estimate s that there would be linear growth in the

overall market share of condensing mechanical draft oil

- fired hot water boilers ≥300,000 Btu/hr

and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr , from 9.0

- percent in 2019 to 33.8

- percent in 2048

. The shares of the

condensing EL (EL 4) and the three non

- condensing ELs are kept in the same proportional

relationship as in 2019. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2010 2020 2030 2040Base case efficiency distribution



### EL0 EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL5 EL610-10 

### Figure 10.3.3 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler s

≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

For standards case s 1 through 3 , DOE applie s the above described efficiency trend for the

condensing boiler market share (EL 4 ). The difference between these standards cases and the

base case is in the market shares of the non

- condensing boilers (ELs 0 through 3 ). For standard

case 4 , the condensing boiler market share goes to 100

- percent in 2019 and remains at that level.

Figure 10.3.4 shows the shares of mechanical draft oil

- fired hot water boilers >2,500,000

Btu/hr at each EL. The shares of the three non

- condensing ELs are kept in the same proportional

relationship as in 2019. DOE estimated linear growth in the overall market share of condensing

mechanical draft oil

- fired hot water commercial packaged boilers >2,500,000 Btu/hr from 18.7

- percent in 2019 to 58.0

- percent b y 2048. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2010 2020 2030 2040Base case efficiency distribution



### EL0 EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL5 EL610-11 

### Figure 10.3.4 Projection of Base Case Efficiency Distribution of Replacement Units for

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler s

>2,500,000 Btu/hr

For standards case s 1 and 2, DOE applie s the above described efficiency trend for the

condensing boiler market share (EL 3). The difference between these standards cases and the

base case is in the market shares of the non

- condensing boilers (ELs 0 through 2). For standard

case 3, the condensing boiler market share goes to 100

- percent in 2019 and remains at that level.

DOE estimate s that the market shares of condensing boilers of other equipment classes

will be negligible during the period of analysis ( 2019

- 2048 ).

DOE consider s that the stand ards for Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial

Packaged Boiler s ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

, and Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler s >2,500,000 Btu/hr are already scheduled to change on March 2,

2022 from 77

- percent therm al efficiency to 79

- percent thermal efficiency. DOE assumed that in

2022 all natural draft steam boilers below 79

- percent thermal efficiency will roll

- up to 79

- percent thermal efficiency to meet the standard. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2010 2020 2030 2040Base case efficiency distribution



### EL0 EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL5 EL610-12 

### 10.4 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS

The inputs for calculating national energy savings are:

• average annual energy consumption per unit ( UEC ),

• shipments,

• equipment stock ( STOCK V 

### ),

• annual energy consumption for the Nation ( AEC ), and

• power plant primary energy use factor ( src_conv ).

10.4.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

For each equipment class, DOE present s the per

- unit annual energy consumption as a

function of equipment efficiency in chapter 7 , Energy Use Analysis . Because the per

- unit annual

energy consumption is directly dependent on efficiency, DOE use s the shipments

- weighted

energy efficiency of the base and standards cases presented in section 10.3 , along with the annual

energy use data presented in chapters 7 and 8, to estimate the shipment

- weighted average annual

per

- unit energy consumption (UEC) under the base and standards cases.

Table 10.4.1 present s the base case and standards case shipment

- weighted annual UECs

by efficiency level (EL) for the four equipment classes with the largest market shares in 20 19

. The values are a weight ed average for commercial and residential boiler users. The table show s

the energy use of commercial packaged boiler s associated with higher

- efficienc ies . The values

after 20 19 change according to the projected efficiency trends in each case

.

Table 10.4.1 Average Annual Boiler Energy Use for the Base and Standards Cases in

20 19

Equipment Class Base

Case TSLs

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 1745.2 1741.5 1734.2 1675.4 NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 796.0 794.3 790.9 763.7 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 7325.6 7243.5 7145.4 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 2114.5 2090.9 2062.7 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 1318.2 1308.2 1269.8 1242.0 NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 690.7 685.5 667.8 653.0 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 7039.9 6994.6 6924.1 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use 2366.8 2351.7 2328.1 NA NA NA NA10-13 (kWh/yr)

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 1577.4 1548.9 1531.0 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 764.5 750.6 741.8 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 7553.9 7462.7 7382.2 7291.1 NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 2086.2 2061.1 2039.0 2013.9 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 1716.6 1705.7 1686.3 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 864.3 858.8 849.0 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 7802.2 7766.3 7709.8 7526.7 NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 2555.8 2544.0 2525.5 2465.6 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 1822.5 1813.7 1802.6 1782.1 1744.0 1705.2 1654.4

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 1976.8 1969.5 1960.2 1943.2 2331.3 2281.0 2215.0

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 5861.4 5832.2 5754.2 5432.2 5243.9 NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 3104.6 3092.2 3059.1 3666.5 3543.4 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 1463.1 1457.8 1447.8 1411.0 1279.3 NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 1564.4 1559.2 1549.5 1514.0 1986.2 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 6878.0 6827.0 6699.3 6220.7 NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 3645.6 3620.2 3556.3 4651.2 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 1587.9 1584.1 1571.2 1537.5 NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 1541.3 1537.7 1525.8 1494.4 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 7372.5 7351.7 7172.7 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 3172.0 3163.4 3089.0 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr10-14 Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 1675.9 1662.0 1644.0 1605.5 NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 1694.0 1680.6 1663.4 1626.7 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged Boiler > 2,500,000 Btu/hr

Average Annual Fuel Use

(MMBtu/yr) 7751.6 7659.3 7441.4 NA NA NA NA

Average Annual Elec tricity Use

(kWh/yr) 3921.8 3876.2 3768.7 NA NA NA NA



### DOE consider s the effects of changes in climate and building shell efficiency on

commercial packaged boiler s’ energy use. The climate adjustment factor is based on the forecast

of heating degree days (HDD) by region from Annual Energy Outlook 201 4 ( AEO 201 4 )

, which

shows a declining trend due to warmer weather. 1 

### Regional building

- shell efficiency factor s are

also from AEO 20 1 4

. For both factors, DOE applie s regional weights to make the factors specific

to commercial and residential users of commercial packaged boiler s. Figure 10.4.1 a nd Figure

10.4.2 show the adjustment factor for boiler energy use in the commercial sector and residential

sectors, respectively.

DOE d oes not apply a rebound effect to adjust its estimates of energy savings because it

is unlikely that commercial consumers will use a higher

- efficiency boiler more than a baseline

one

.

Figure 10.4.1 Combined Adjustment Factor for Commercial Packaged Boiler s Energy

Use in Commercial Sector 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Adjustment Factor for EnergyUse in Commercial Sector10-15 

### Figure 10.4.2 Combined Adjustment Factor for Commercial Packaged Boiler s Energy

Use in Residential Sector

10.4.2 Shipments

DOE project s shipments for each equipment class under the base case and all standards

cases (see chapter 9) . Several factors impact project ed shipments, including total installed costs,

operating cost, and equipment lifetime. As noted earlier, the increased total installed cost of more

efficient equipment causes some customers to forego equipment purchases. Con sequently,

shipments projected under the standards cases are lower than under the base case. DOE believes

it would be in appropri ate to count energy savings that result from red uced shipments due to

standards . Therefore, DOE d oes not calculate annual energy consumption for the base case using

the base case shipments projection . Instead, for each comparison of a standards case with the

base case, DOE use s shipments associated with that particular standards case. As a result, all the

calculated energy savings are due to higher energy efficiency in the standards case.

10.4.3 Equipment Stock

The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime

of a given equipment class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each

year . The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the

given year. DOE assumes that equipment have an increasing probability of retiring as they age.

The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function.

Refer to chapter 8 for further details on the survival functions that DOE used in its analysis.

10.4.4 Annual Energy Consumption

For each equipment class, DOE calculate s the total national site ( i.e. , the energy

consumed at the ho usehold or establishment) annual energy consumption (AEC). Annual energy

consumption is the product of the AEC per unit ( also termed the unit energy consumption 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045Adjustment Factor for EnergyUse in Residential Sector10-16 

### (UEC) ) and the number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in UEC

fro m year to year.

10.4.5 Site

- to

- Power Plant Energy Use Factor

DOE account s for electricity use by commercial boilers. DOE calculates primary energy

savings (power plant consumption) from site electricity savings by applying a factor to account

for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. DOE

derive s marginal site

- to

- power plant factors based on the version of the National Energy

Modeling System (NEMS) that corresponds to AEO 2013

. 2 

### The factors change over time in

response to projected changes in the types of power plants projected to provide electricity to the

country. Figure 10.4.3 shows the site

- to

- power plant factors from 2019 to 2040 . For years after

20 40 (the last year in the AEO ), DOE maintain s the 2040 value

.

Figure 10.4.3 Primary to Site Energy Use Factor for Commercial Packaged Boiler

Electricity Use

10.4.6 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Factors

The full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) measure includes point

- of

- use (site) energy, the energy losses

associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electr icity, and the energy consumed

in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. To complete the full

fuel

- cycle by encompassing the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or

distributing primary fuels, which a re refer red to as “upstream” activities, DOE develop s

multipliers using the data and projections generated by the NEMS used for AEO 201 4

. T he AEO

provide s extensive information about the energy system, including projections of future oil,

natural gas and coal supply, energy use for oil and gas field and refinery operations, and fuel

consumption and emissions related to electric power production. This inform ation can be used to 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

2015 2025 2035 2045Power plant (Btu) / Site (Wh)10-17 

### define a set of parameters representing the energy intensity of energy production. The method

used to calculate FFC energy multipliers is described in appendix 10

- B.

Table 10.4.2 s hows the upstream energy multipliers used for commercial packaged

boiler s for selected years. The multipliers are applied to site energy. For years after 2040 (the last

year in the AEO ), DOE maintain s the 2040 value

.

Table 10.4.2 Upstream Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 201 4 )

2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Elec tricity 1.043 1.044 1.045 1.046 1.047 1.047 1.047

Natural Gas 1.108 1.110 1.112 1.114 1.114 1.114 1.114

Petroleum Fuels 1.176 1.176 1.175 1.173 1.171 1.170 1.170

10.5 NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS

Listed below are t he inputs to DOE’s calculati on of the NPV of costs and savings.

• Total installed cost per unit,

• annual per

- unit savings in operation cost,

• shipments,

• equipment stock ( STOCK V 

### ),

• total annual increases in installed cost ( TIC ),

• total annual operating cost ( OCS ),

• discount factor (DF ),

• present value of costs ( PVC ), and

• present value of savings ( PVS ).

The total annual increase in installed cost is equal to the annual change in the total per

unit installed cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the shipments

projected for each EL . As with calculating energy savings, DOE d oes not use base

- case

shipments to calculate total annual installed costs for all of the equipment classes. DOE use s the

projected shipments and stock for each EL to calculate costs.

The annual operating cost includes energy , repair, and maintenance costs. The total

annual savings in operating cost are equal to the change in the annual operating costs (difference

between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments projected for each

candidate standard level. As with calculating total annual installed costs, DOE use s standards

c ase shipments to calculate savings in operating cost.10-18 

### 10.5.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit

DOE describe s the total per

- unit installed cost for each equipment class as a function of

equipment efficiency in chapter 8 , Life

- Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

. Because the

total per

- unit annual installed cost depends directly on efficiency, DOE use s the shipments

weighted efficiencies for the base and standards cases, combined with the total installed cost

presented in chapter 8, to estimate the shipments

- weight ed total per

- unit average annual installed

cost under the base and standards cases. Table 10.5.1 shows the average installed cost of

commercial packaged boiler s in 20 19 for the base and standards cases for the four equipment

classes with the largest market shares. For reasons discussed in chapter 8 (section 8.2.1.4), DOE

use s a constant price assumption for the default projection in the NIA.10-19 

### Table 10.5.1 Average Installed Cost of Commercial Packaged Boiler s in 20 19 for the

Base and Standards Cases ( 2013$ )

Product Class Base

Case Efficiency Level s

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $40,568 $40,927 $42,014 $49,012 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler

>2,500,000 Btu/hr $134,389 $140,976 $149,813 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $59,527 $60,509 $70,499 $71,997 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler

>2,500,000 Btu/hr $135,313 $140,162 $146,359 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $35,635 $40,090 $43,933 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler

>2,500,000 Btu/hr $78,924 $85,706 $97,120 $111,935 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $45,909 $47,954 $52,115 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler

>2,500,000 Btu/hr $83,674 $87,909 $95,442 $124,987 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $89,415 $90,256 $91,635 $94,714 $99,269 $111,696 $129,086

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler

>2,500,000 Btu/hr $263,534 $266,664 $277,304 $337,852 $354,899 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $89,084 $90,025 $91,836 $98,810 $156,739 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler

>2,500,000 Btu/hr $194,999 $201,631 $211,684 $366,549 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $73,861 $74,665 $77,779 $87,801 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler

>2,500,000 Btu/hr $156,466 $159,387 $192,413 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $76,446 $79,270 $83,682 $95,045 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler

>2,500,000 Btu/hr $135,974 $147,544 $184,962 NA NA NA NA10-20 

### 10.5.2 Annual Operating Cost per Unit

The per

- unit annual operating cost includes costs for energy, repair, and maintenance.

DOE determine s the per

- unit annual savings in energy costs by multiplying the per

- unit annual

savings in energy consumption developed for each equipment class by the appropriate energy

price. DOE consider s operating cost s separately for commercial and residential boile r users.

Estimates of the per

- unit annual energy consumption for the base case and each standards

case were presented in section 10.4.1 . DOE project s the per

- unit annual energy consumption for

the base case for all equipment classes by applying a growth trend in efficiency.

Energy prices and trends in energy prices are des cribed in chapter 8. DOE project s

energy prices based on annual changes in average commercial and residential energy prices in

EIA’s AEO 2014 reference case scenario. 1



### DOE describe s the total per

- unit repair and maintenance costs for each equipment class

as a function of equipment efficiency in chapter 8. Because the per

- unit repair and maintenance

costs depend directly on efficiency, DOE use s the efficiencies for the base and standards cases

presented in section 10.3 , combined with the repair and maintenance costs presented in chapter

8, to estimate the per

- unit average repair and maintenance costs under the base and standards

cases.

Table 10.5.2 shows the average operating cost of commercial packaged boiler s in 20 19

for the base and standards cases for the four equipment classes with the largest market shares.

The operating costs c hange over time, depending on change in annual energy use and energy

prices.10-21 

### Table 10.5.2 Average Annual Operating Cost of Commercial Packaged Boiler s in 20 19

for the Base and Standards Cases ( 2013$ )

Product Class Base

Case Efficiency Levels

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $14,835 $14,804 $14,742 $14,242 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr $59,159 $58,496 $57,703 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $34,965 $34,702 $33,683 $32,945 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr $184,917 $183,728 $181,875 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $13,009 $12,773 $12,626 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr $61,547 $60,805 $60,149 $59,406 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $45,553 $45,264 $44,747 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr $205,820 $204,871 $203,381 $198,551 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $15,740 $15,665 $15,569 $15,392 $15,105 $14,769 $14,330

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr $48,068 $47,829 $47,190 $44,621 $43,075 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $38,941 $38,800 $38,533 $37,555 $34,125 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr $180,653 $179,316 $175,961 $163,526 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $13,160 $13,129 $13,022 $12,743 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr $60,132 $59,962 $58,503 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler ≥300,000

Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr $44,556 $44,186 $43,707 $42,685 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam

Commercial Packaged Boiler >2,500,000

Btu/hr $204,686 $202,248 $196,494 NA NA NA NA10-22 

### 10.5.3 Equipment Stock

The stock of equipment in any given year depends on annual shipments and the lifetime

of a given equipment class. The NIA model keeps track of the number of units shipped each

year. The lifetime of a unit determines how many units shipped in previous years survive in the

given year. DOE assumes that equipment have an increasing probability of retiring as they age.

The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is termed the survival function.

Refer to the specific section for each equipment class in chapter 9 for further details on the

survival functions that DOE use s in its analysis.

10.5.4 Incre ases in Total Annual Installed Cost

The increase in total annual installed cost for equipment under any given standards case

is the product of the increase in total installed cost per unit attributable to the standard and the

number of units of each vint age. This method accounts for differences in total installed cost from

year to year.

10.5.5 Savings in Total Annual Operating Cost

The savings in total annual operating cost for any given candidate standards level is the

product of the annual per

- unit savings i n operating cost attributable to the standard and the

number of units of each vintage. This method accounts for the year

- to

- year differences in annual

operating cost savings.

As previously discussed, DOE d oes not appl y a rebound effect to adjust its est imates of

energy savings because it is unlikely that commercial consumers will use a higher

- efficiency

boiler more than a baseline one

.

10.5.6 Discount Factor

DOE multiplie s monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the

present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

Eq. 10

. 9

Where:

r = discount rate,

y = year of the monetary value, and

y

P 

### = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE estimate s NPV using both a 3

- percent and a 7

- percent real discount rate, in

accordance with the Office of Management and Budget’s guidance to Federal agencies on the

development of regul atory analysis, particularly section E therein: Identifying and Measuring

Benefits and Costs

. 3 

### DO E define s the present year as 201 4

. ) yp y (

_ 

### ) r ( DF

+ 1 1

=10-23 

### 10.5.7 Present Value of Increased Installed Cost and Savings

The present va lue of increased installed cost is the difference between installation cost in

each standards case and the base case discounted to the present and summed throughout the

period over which DOE is considering the installation of units (from the compliance date of

standards, 20 19 , through 204 8 ). DOE calculate s annual increases in ins talled cost as the

difference in total installed cost for new equipment purchased each year, multiplied by the

shipments in the standards case.

The present value of annual savings in operating cost is the difference between t he base

case and each standar ds case discounted to the present and summed throughout the period from

the compliance date, 2019 , to the time when the last unit installed in 2019

- 2048 is retired from

service.

Savings represent decreases in operating cost (including electricity, repair , and

maintenance) associated with the more energy efficient equipment purchased in each standards

case compared to the base case. Total annual savings in operating cost are the savings per unit

multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that surviv e in a particular year.

10.6 RESULTS

10.6.1 National Energy Savings

This section provides the national energy savings that DOE calculate s for each of the EL s

analyzed for commercial packaged boiler s

. S ee Table 10.6.1 for primary energy savings and

Table 10.6.2 for FFC energy savings . DOE base s the inputs to the NIA model on weighted

average values, producing results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of

values such as is generated by the life

- cycle cost and payback period analysis.10-24 

### Table 10.6.1 Primary National Energy Savings for Commercial Packaged Boiler s

(quads)

Product Class Efficiency Level s

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.004 0.026 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler > 2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.010 0.023 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.003 0.005 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.005 0.012 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.018 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.008 0.050 0.099 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.002 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.005 0.014 0.044 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.023 0.052 0.105 0.207 0.332 0.524

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.039 0.145 0.570 0.875 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.006 0.017 0.059 0.201 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.011 0.037 0.136 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.017 0.053 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.010 0.099 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.015 0.035 0.077 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.035 0.118 NA NA NA NA10-25 

### Table 10.6.2 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle National Energy Savings for Commercial Packaged

Boiler s (quads)

Product Class Efficiency Level s

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.005 0.029 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.011 0.025 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.004 0.006 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.006 0.014 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.020 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.009 0.056 0.111 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.002 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.006 0.017 0.051 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.025 0.058 0.117 0.230 0.370 0.583

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.044 0.161 0.634 0.975 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.007 0.020 0.069 0.235 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.013 0.044 0.159 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.019 0.059 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.011 0.110 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.018 0.041 0.091 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.041 0.139 NA NA NA NA



### 10.6.2 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit

Th is section provide s results of calculating the NPV for each candidate standard level

considered for commercial packaged boiler s. Results, which are cumulative, are shown as the

discounted dollar value of the net savings

. S ee Table 10.6.3 for NPV results with a 3

- percent

discount rate applied and Table 10.6.4 for 7

- percent discount rate

. DOE base s the inputs to the

NIA model on weighted

- average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather

than a distribution of values such as pr oduced by the life

- cycle cost and payback period analyses.

A negative NPV indicates that the costs of a standard at a given efficiency level exceed the

savings.10-26 

### Table 10.6.3 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit for Commercial Packaged

Boiler s , Discounted at 3 Percent (billion 2013$ )

Product Class Efficiency Level s

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.004 0.011 0.072 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.036 0.079 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.009 0.025 0.054 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial Packaged

Boiler > 2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.057 0.144 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.010 0.024 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.034 0.151 0.300 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.009 0.025 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.072 0.185 0.576 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.047 0.088 0.129 0.203 (0.202) (0.908)

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.087 0.267 0.523 1.268 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.052 0.148 0.487 0.323 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.105 0.406 0.650 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.000 (0.009) (0.067) NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.016 0.096 NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.137 0.296 0.591 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.356 1.106 NA NA NA NA10-27 

### Table 10.6.4 Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit for Commercial Packaged

Boiler s , Discounted at 7 Percent (billion 2013$ )

Product Class Efficiency Level s

1 2 3 4 5 6

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 0.003 0.019 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.014 0.030 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.003 0.007 0.016 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.022 0.055 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.003 0.002 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.016 0.054 0.108 NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.003 0.010 NA NA NA NA

Natural Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial Packaged

Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.028 0.072 0.229 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.007 0.006 (0.016) (0.046) (0.358) (0.861)

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.017 0.034 (0.132) 0.035 NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.013 0.037 0.117 (0.315) NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Hot Water Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.031 0.131 0.025 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr (0.004) (0.022) (0.089) NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Gas

- Fired Steam Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.001 (0.024) NA NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial

Packaged Boiler ≥300,000 Btu/hr and ≤2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.038 0.076 0.131 NA NA NA

Mechanical Draft Oil

- Fired Steam Commercial

Packaged Boiler >2,500,000 Btu/hr 0.109 0.318 NA NA NA NA10-28 

### REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy

- Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

2014 with Projections to 2040 , 2014. Washington, DC.

< http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/ >

2. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with Projections to

2040 , 2013. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA

- 0383.

< http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2013).pdf >

3. U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Circular A

- 4: Regulatory Analysis,

2003. (Posted September 17, 2003) (Last accessed April, 2013.)

< http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/regulatory_matters_pdf/a

4.pdf >