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- i APPENDIX 10C. FULL FUEL CYCLE MULT IPLIERS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10C.1 INTRODUCTION

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10C.2 METHODOLOGY

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10C.3 FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE ENERGY MULTIPL IERS

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 10C.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs

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Table 10C.3.1 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO2013 )

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- 1 APPENDIX 10C. FULL FUEL CYCLE MULT IPLIERS

10C.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix summarizes the methods used to calculate full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) energy savings expected to result from amended standards. The FFC measure includes point

- of

- use (site) energy ; the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity ; and the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. The U.S. Department of Energy’s ( DOE’s ) traditional approach encompassed only site energy and the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. Per DOE’s 2011 Statement of Policy for Adopting Full Fuel Cycle Analy ses , DOE now uses FFC measures of energy use and emissions in its energy conservation standards analyses. 1 This appendix summarizes the methods used to incorporate the FFC impacts into the analysis.

This an alysis uses several different terms to reference energy use. The physical sources of energy are the primary fuels such as coal, natural gas, liquid fuels, etc . Primary energy is equal to the heat content ( British thermal unit or B tu ) of the primary fuels u sed to provide an end

- use service. Site energy use is defined as the energy consumed at the point

- of

- use in a building or industrial process. Where natural gas and petroleum fuels are consumed at the site (for example

, in a furnace), site energy is identic al to primary energy, with both equal to the heat content of the primary fuel consumed. For electricity, site energy is measured in kWh. In this case the primary energy is equal to the quads of primary energy required to generate and deliver the site

elect ricity. This primary energy is calculated by multiplying the site kWh times the power sector primary energy use factor, given in chapter 10. For the FFC analysis, the upstream energy use is defined as the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and tran sporting or distributing primary fuels. FFC energy use is the sum of primary plus upstream energy use.

Both primary fuels and electricity are used in upstream activities. The treatment of electricity in fuel cycle analysis must distinguish between electricity generated by fossil fuels and uranium and electricity generated from renewable fluxes (wind, solar

, and hydro). For the former, the upstream fuel cycle impacts are derived from the amount of fuel consumed at the power plant. For the latter, no fuel per se is used, so there is no upstream component.

10C.2 METHODOLOGY

The mathematical approach is discussed in the paper A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

, 2 and details on the fuel production chain analysis are presented in the

paper Projections of Full Fuel Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics

. 3 The text below provides a brief summary of the methods used to calculate FFC energy.

When all energy quantities are normalized to the same units, the FFC energy use can be represented as the product of the primary energy use and an FFC multiplier . The FFC multiplier is defined mathematically as a function of a set of parameters representing the energy intensity10C

- 2 and material losses at each production stage. These parameters depend only on physical data, so the calculations do not require any assumptions about prices or other economic data. While in general these parameter values may vary by geographic region, for th is analysis national averages are used.

In the notation below, the indices x and y are used to indicate fuel type, with x=c for coal, x=g for natural gas, x=p for petroleum fuels, x=u for uranium

, and x=r for renewable fluxes. The fuel cycle parameters are:

• a x is the quantity of fuel x burned per unit of electricity output, on average, for grid electricity. The calculation of a

x includes a factor to account for transmission and distribution system losses.

• b y is the amount of grid electricity used in production of fuel y, in MWh per physical unit of fuel y.

• c xy is the amount of fuel x consumed in producing one unit of fuel y.

• q x is the heat content of fuel x ( MB tu /physical unit)

.

• z x (s) is the emissions intens ity for fuel x (mass of pollutant s per physical unit of x)

.

The parameters are calculated as a function of time with an annual time step; hence, a time series of annual values is used to estimate the FFC energy and emissions savings in each year of the analysis period. Fossil fuel quantities are converted to energy units using the heat content factors q

x . To convert electricity in kWh to primary energy units, on

- site electricity consumption is multiplied by the power sector primary energy use factor indicated in chapter 10. The power sector primary energy use factor is defined as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption by the electric power sector (in quadrillion B tu ) divided by the total electricity generation in each year.

The FFC multiplier is denoted μ (mu). A separate multiplier is calculated for eac h fuel used on site. A multiplier is also calculated for electricity reflecting the fuel mix used in its generation. The multipliers are dimensionless numbers that are applied to primary energy savings to obtain the FFC energy savings. The upstream compone nt of the energy savings is proportional to (μ

- 1). The fuel type is denoted by a subscript on the multiplier μ.

For DOE’s appliance standards energy savings estimates, the fuel cycle analysis methodology is designed to make use of data and projections published in the Annual Energy

Outlook ( AEO ). Table 10C.2.1 provides a summary of the AEO data used as inputs to the different parameter calculations. The AEO does n ot provide all the information needed to estimate total energy use in the fuel production chain. Projections of Full Fuel Cycle Energy and

Emissions Metrics describes the additional data sources used to complete the analysis. However, the time dependence i n the FFC multipliers arises exclusively from variables taken from the

AEO . The FFC analysis used data from AEO201 3

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- 3 Table 10C.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inp uts

Parameter Fuel AEO Table Variables

q x all Conversion Factors MMB tu per physical unit

a x all Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions Generation by fuel type Energy Consumption by Sector and

Source Electric power sector energy consumption

b

c , c nc , c pc coal Coal Production by Region and Type Production by coal type and

sulfur content

b p , c np , c pp petroleum Refining Industry Energy Consumption Refining only energy use
Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition Crude supply by source International Liquids Supply and Disposition Crude oil imports
Oil and Gas Supply Crude oil domestic production

c nn natural

gas Oil and Gas Supply U

. S

. dry gas production Natural Gas Supply, Disposition and

Prices Pipeline, lease and plant fuel

z x all Electricity Supply, Disposition,

Prices and Emissions Power sector emissions

10C.3 FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE ENERGY MULTIPL IERS

FFC energy multipliers are presented in Table 10C.3.1 for selected years. To extend the analysis period beyond 204 0 , the last year in the AEO201 3 projection, the years 2020 to 204 0 are used to define a linear trend to 2050, which is then extrapo lated to the final year of the analysis period. The multiplier for electricity reflects the shares of various primary fuels in total electricity generation over the forecast period.

Table 10C.3.1 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO2013 )

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity (power plant primary energy use) 1.041 1.040 1.040 1.041 1.040 1.040 1.040

Natural Gas (site) 1.101 1.100 1.098 1.099 1.100 1.100 1.100

Petroleum Fuels (site) 1.140 1.148 1.158 1.166 1.168 1.168 1.16810C

- 4 REFERENCES

1. United States

- Office of the Federal Register, Federal Register, Volume 76, Number 160, August 18, 2011 . UNT Digital Library. Washington D.C.

2. Coughlin, K., A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

. Energy , 2012. 37( 1): pp. 698

- 708

. < http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211006803 >

3. Coughlin, K., Projections of Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics , 2013. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Report No. LBNL

- 6025E.

4. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with Projections to

2040 , 2013. Washington, DC. < ht tp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2013).pdf >