Estimating E85 Consumption in 2013 and 2014

Dallas Burkholder, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, US EPA

November 2015

Summary

There are currently no comprehensive data sources on the amount of E85 sold in the 

United States. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) currently reports the volume 

of gasoline containing 55% ethanol of greater (Ed55) produced at large terminals, as well 

as gasoline produced by ethanol production facilities (much of which is likely E85). This 

data, however, is incomplete, as E85 produced at small blending facilities is not included in 

EIA’s surveys, and the gasoline production volumes reported by ethanol production 

facilities are net, rather than gross production (indeed, these volumes were negative in 

previous years). Another potential source of data for E85 sales volumes is from individual 

states. Several states track E85 sales volumes for tax or other regulatory purposes. This 

data is comprehensive for the individual state where it is collected, but state E85 sales data 

is limited. In an effort to estimate the volume of E85 used in 2013 and 2014 EPA has 

collected E85 sales data from each state where it is available. We have used this data, 

together with counts of the number of stations selling E85 in each state as reported by the 

state itself or from the Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuel Data Center (AFDC) to 

calculate the average volume of E85 sold per station per month for each state. We next 

used the average monthly sales per station for all states that reported E85 sales data 

(weighted by the number of stations selling E85 in each state) to estimate the average E85 

sales per station per month. We finally used this monthly station average, together with 

the total number of stations selling E85 as reported by AFDC to estimate the number 

volume of E85 sold in the United States in 2013 and 2014. Details of these calculations are 

shown in Table 1 and Table 2 below. Based on the available data we estimate that 134

million gallons of E85 were sold in the US in 2013, and 173 million gallons were sold in 

2014. A discussion of the uncertainty related to these estimates follows the tables.
Table 1

Estimated E85 Sales in the United States in 2013

Table 2

Estimated E85 Sales in the United States in 2014

Month Volume Stations Station Avg. Volume Stations Station Avg. Volume Stations Station Avg. Volume Stations Station Avg. Volume Stations Station Avg. Per Station

Total Monthly Volume 

(2621 Stations)

Jan-13 561,119 353 1,590 556,862 134 4,156 611,649 185 3,306 541,209 83 6,521 43,011 32 1,344 2,940 7,705,973

Feb-13 558,286 351 1,591 587,394 136 4,319 611,649 185 3,306 556,828 83 6,709 56,969 32 1,780 3,013 7,896,723

Mar-13 736,629 350 2,105 734,435 137 5,361 611,649 185 3,306 656,002 83 7,904 69,454 32 2,170 3,568 9,352,238

Apr-13 707,448 346 2,045 651,514 139 4,687 874,650 185 4,728 592,750 83 7,142 59,047 32 1,845 3,676 9,633,957

May-13 823,068 348 2,365 747,752 140 5,341 874,650 185 4,728 629,470 83 7,584 73,596 32 2,300 3,996 10,472,477

Jun-13 1,516,751 349 4,346 742,130 141 5,263 874,650 185 4,728 606,074 83 7,302 69,177 32 2,162 4,821 12,636,477

Jul-13 1,332,764 349 3,819 731,997 142 5,155 1,203,632 185 6,506 523,867 83 6,312 61,153 32 1,911 4,872 12,768,388

Aug-13 1,415,664 349 4,056 799,516 143 5,591 1,203,632 185 6,506 623,550 83 7,513 65,557 32 2,049 5,187 13,594,514

Sep-13 1,484,826 350 4,242 775,286 143 5,422 1,203,632 185 6,506 610,161 83 7,351 51,049 32 1,595 5,202 13,633,674

Oct-13 1,479,898 351 4,216 839,385 143 5,870 928,109 185 5,017 624,313 83 7,522 49,668 32 1,552 4,939 12,944,481

Nov-13 1,359,508 349 3,895 781,249 143 5,463 928,109 185 5,017 600,933 83 7,240 50,720 32 1,585 4,698 12,312,474

Dec-13 1,078,148 351 3,072 852,461 143 5,961 928,109 185 5,017 560,083 83 6,748 56,512 32 1,766 4,377 11,472,033

2013 TOTAL ESTIMATE 134,423,408

Minnesota California Iowa New York Kansas 5 State Weighted Avg

Month Volume Stations Station Avg. Volume Stations Station Avg. Volume Stations Station Avg. Volume Stations Station Avg. Volume Stations Station Avg. Per Station

Total Monthly Volume 

(2722 Stations)

Jan-14 884,916 312 2,836 775,878 99 7,837 902,410 185 4,878 528,375 83 6,366 51,588 25 2,064 4,465 12,152,985

Feb-14 874,969 304 2,878 803,552 99 8,117 902,410 185 4,878 498,579 83 6,007 51,588 25 2,064 4,499 12,245,474

Mar-14 869,041 200 4,345 923,398 99 9,327 902,410 185 4,878 343,863 83 4,143 71,875 25 2,875 5,254 14,302,396

Apr-14 1,126,464 296 3,806 853,616 99 8,622 994,359 185 5,375 385,751 83 4,648 61,019 25 2,441 4,973 13,535,654

May-14 1,039,814 296 3,513 948,118 99 9,577 994,359 185 5,375 568,295 83 6,847 72,410 25 2,896 5,266 14,334,003

Jun-14 1,215,212 295 4,119 998,537 99 10,086 994,359 185 5,375 595,565 83 7,175 60,173 25 2,407 5,624 15,309,153

Jul-14 1,191,822 294 4,054 942,677 99 9,522 1,113,941 185 6,021 717,074 83 8,639 71,660 25 2,866 5,885 16,019,223

Aug-14 1,349,410 294 4,590 954,577 99 9,642 1,113,941 185 6,021 685,296 83 8,257 57,107 25 2,284 6,065 16,507,901

Sep-14 1,233,608 294 4,196 963,987 99 9,737 1,113,941 185 6,021 614,248 83 7,401 68,621 25 2,745 5,823 15,849,518

Oct-14 1,282,936 294 4,364 1,030,528 99 10,409 976,878 185 5,280 679,726 83 8,189 51,707 25 2,068 5,863 15,958,123

Nov-14 1,361,354 294 4,630 950,502 99 9,601 976,878 185 5,280 542,615 83 6,538 44,199 25 1,768 5,649 15,377,905

Dec-14 1,011,399 294 3,440 930,088 99 9,395 976,878 185 5,280 83 40,023 25 1,601 4,313 11,738,678

2014 TOTAL ESTIMATE 173,331,013

Minnesota California Iowa New York Kansas 5 State Weighted Avg
Uncertainties in these Estimates

While the calculations shown above consider all the available data, there is still some level 

of uncertainty associated with using this data to project total E85 use in the United States. 

This uncertainty is somewhat mitigated by the fact that while data is available from only 

10% of the states, these states contain approximately 25% of the E85 stations in the United 

States. Because the data is from entire states it likely includes many diverse stations, both 

urban and rural. It is the case, however, that each of the states that provided EPA with E85 

sales data provides some type of incentives at the state level for the sale of E85 within the 

state. Using data only from states that offer some type of incentive for E85 may tend to bias 

the estimates high. It is likely that the actual amount of E85 sold in the United States in 

2013 and 2014 is slightly lower than the volumes estimated here. EPA has developed an 

alternative method for projecting E85 sales volumes that uses much of the same data as 

this document, but takes into account pricing information in 2014.1 This method projects 

E85 sales volumes of approximately 150 million gallons in 2014. We believe this is a better 

estimate of actual E85 sales in this year.

 

1 “Correlating E85 consumption volumes with E85 price,” memorandum from David Korotney to docket EPAHQ-OAR-2015-0111