CHAPTER 15. NET NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

15.1 ASSUMPTIONS............................................................................................................... 15-1 

15.2 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 15-1
 

15.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 15-2 

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 15-7 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 15.3.1 Net National Change in Jobs for VOP.RC.M by TSL......................................... 15-2 

Table 15.3.2 Net National Change in Jobs for VOP.RC.L by TSL.......................................... 15-3 

Table 15.3.3 Net National Change in Jobs for VOP.SC.M by TSL ......................................... 15-3 

Table 15.3.4 Net National Change in Jobs for VCT.RC.M by TSL......................................... 15-3 

Table 15.3.5 Net National Change in Jobs for VCT.RC.L by TSL.......................................... 15-3 

Table 15.3.6 Net National Change in Jobs for VCT.SC.I by TSL ........................................... 15-3 

Table 15.3.7 Net National Change in Jobs for VCS.SC.I by TSL............................................ 15-4 

Table 15.3.8 Net National Change in Jobs for SVO.RC.M by TSL......................................... 15-4 

Table 15.3.9 Net National Change in Jobs for SVO.SC.M by TSL ......................................... 15-4 

Table 15.3.10 Net National Change in Jobs for SOC.RC.M by TSL....................................... 15-4 

Table 15.3.11 Net National Change in Jobs for HZO.RC.M by TSL....................................... 15-4 

Table 15.3.12 Net National Change in Jobs for HZO.RC.L by TSL........................................ 15-5 

Table 15.3.13 Net National Change in Jobs for HZO.SC.M by TSL....................................... 15-5 

Table 15.3.14 Net National Change in Jobs for HZO.SC.L by TSL ........................................ 15-5 

Table 15.3.15 Net National Change in Jobs for HCT.SC.I by TSL ......................................... 15-5 

Table 15.3.16 Net National Change in Jobs for all Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 

by TSL ............................................................................................................... 15-6 

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EERE-2006-BT-STD-0126 COMMENT 52.2 
15-ii 

EERE-2006-BT-STD-0126 COMMENT 52.2 
CHAPTER 15. NET NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS 

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted the employment impact analysis to 

estimate indirect national job creation or elimination resulting from proposed energy 

conservation standards because of reallocation of the associated commercial expenditures for 

purchasing and distributing commercial refrigeration equipment (CRE). DOE estimated the 

national impacts on major sectors of the U.S. economy using publicly available data and 

incorporating different energy price scenarios. The employment impact analysis does not 

evaluate direct employment impacts at manufacturers’ facilities, which are considered in the 

manufacturer impact analysis (see Chapter 12 of the TSD). 

15.1 ASSUMPTIONS 

If promulgated, DOE expects CRE-amended energy conservation standards to decrease 

the national energy consumption, and, therefore, reduce energy expenditures. The savings in 

energy expenditures may be used on new investment or not at all (i.e., they may remain “saved”). 

The amended energy conservation standards may increase the purchase price (i.e., equipment 

price plus sales tax) and installation costs of commercial refrigeration equipment. 

Using an input-output model of the U.S. economy, this analysis estimated the 

year-to-year effect of these expenditure impacts on net economic output and employment. DOE 

intended this analysis to quantify the indirect employment impacts of reduced expenditures for 

energy and reallocation of that money toward other sectors of the economy. 

15.2 METHODOLOGY 

DOE defines the net national employment impacts resulting from proposed amended 

energy conservation standards for commercial refrigeration equipment as the net national change 

in jobs in the general economy. The key factors affecting the outcome of net change in jobs are 

(1) increased spending on the purchase and installation of commercial refrigeration equipment 

meeting the amended standards, (2) reduced customer spending on electricity, (3) reduced 

spending on new investment or capacity by energy companies, and (4) the associated indirect 

effects of the above. 

DOE based its analysis on the Impact of Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET) model 

developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for DOE’s Office of Energy 

Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE).1

 ImSET is an input/output model of the U.S. 

economy that estimates the effects of standards on major sectors of the economy related to 

buildings and the net impact of standards on jobs. ImSET’s input/output structure is based on 

the 1997 Benchmark U.S. table aggregated to 188 sectors to estimate the employment and 

income effects of building energy technologies.2 In comparison with simple economic multiplier 

approaches, ImSET allows for more complete and automated analysis of the economic impacts 

of energy efficiency investments in buildings. 

In an input/output model, the level of employment in an economy is determined by the 

relationship of different sectors of the economy and the spending flows among them. Different 

sectors have different levels of labor intensity, and changes in the level of spending (e.g., due to 

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EERE-2006-BT-STD-0126 COMMENT 52.2 
 

 

 

the effects of an amended energy conservation standard) in one sector of the economy will affect 

spending in other sectors, which in turn will affect the overall level of employment. 

ImSET uses a 188-sector model to predict the economic effects of residential and 

commercial buildings technologies. ImSET collects estimates of initial investments, energy 

savings, and economic activity associated with spending the savings resulting from amended 

standards (e.g., changes in final demand in personal consumption, business investment and 

spending, government spending). It provides overall estimates of the change in national output 

for each input-output sector. Then, the model applies estimates of employment and wage income 

per dollar of economic output for each sector and calculates impacts on national employment and 

wage income. 

ImSET calculates the total effect of standards on employment, including job creation or 

deletion in the manufacturing sector. As described above, DOE analyzed the direct employment 

impacts (i.e., those that would occur at the manufacturing plants of commercial refrigeration 

equipment) in the manufacturer impact analysis (see Chapter 13 of the TSD). 

Energy efficiency technology primarily affects the U.S. economy along three spending 

pathways. First, general investment funds are diverted to sectors that manufacture, install, and 

maintain energy efficient technologies. The increased cost of technology leads to higher 

employment in the refrigeration equipment manufacturing sector, including commercial 

refrigeration equipment, and lower employment in other economic sectors. Second, commercial 

firm spending is redirected from utilities toward firms that supply commercial production inputs. 

Third, electric utility sector investment funds are released for use in other sectors of the 

economy. When customers use less energy, electric utilities experience relative reductions in 

demand, which in turn leads to reductions in utility sector investment and employment. 

15.3 RESULTS 

The results show the total effects of amended energy conservation standards on 

employment for the selected years. Table 15.3.1through Table 15.3.15 show the net national 

employment impacts of the amended CRE energy conservation standards for each of the 15 CRE 

products by Trial Standard Level (TSL) and specified years for the entire CRE market. 

Table 15.3.1 Net National Change in Jobs for VOP.RC.M by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 2012

Net National Change in Jobs 

 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 

0 

-1 

-1 

-1 

4 6 

20 28 

44 62 

44 62 

45 64 

7 

32 

70 

70 

73 

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EERE-2006-BT-STD-0126 COMMENT 52.2 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 15.3.2 Net National Change in Jobs for VOP.RC.L by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 12 17 19 

0 20 28 32 

0 23 32 37 

-1 33 47 53 

-1 33 47 53 

Table 15.3.3 Net National Change in Jobs for VOP.SC.M by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 10 15 17 

0 29 41 47 

-1 57 80 92 

-1 57 80 92 

-3 72 110 122 

Table 15.3.4 Net National Change in Jobs for VCT.RC.M by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 1 1 2 

0 4 6 7 

-1 45 63 72 

-1 45 64 73 

-1 45 64 73 

Table 15.3.5 Net National Change in Jobs for VCT.RC.L by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 65 91 105 

-5 724 1016 1163 

-8 1037 1455 1665 

-9 1060 1487 1701 

-9 1060 1487 1701 

Table 15.3.6 Net National Change in Jobs for VCT.SC.I by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 16 23 27 

0 43 60 69 

-1 49 70 80 

-1 51 74 83 

-1 51 74 83 

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Table 15.3.7 Net National Change in Jobs for VCS.SC.I by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 0 1 1 

0 2 2 3 

0 3 5 6 

0 3 5 6 

0 3 5 6 

Table 15.3.8 Net National Change in Jobs for SVO.RC.M by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 53 75 85 

-1 78 110 126 

-1 156 219 251 

-1 156 219 251 

-16 263 373 426 

Table 15.3.9 Net National Change in Jobs for SVO.SC.M by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 9 13 15 

0 28 39 45 

-1 60 85 97 

-1 60 85 97 

-3 76 119 131 

Table 15.3.10 Net National Change in Jobs for SOC.RC.M by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 3 5 6 

0 13 18 21 

0 25 36 41 

0 25 36 41 

-3 84 124 140 

Table 15.3.11 Net National Change in Jobs for HZO.RC.M by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 2 3 4 

0 9 13 15 

0 14 19 22 

0 15 21 24 

0 15 21 24 

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Table 15.3.12 Net National Change in Jobs for HZO.RC.L by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 23 32 37 

0 51 71 82 

-1 59 83 95 

-1 59 83 95 

-1 59 83 95 

Table 15.3.13 Net National Change in Jobs for HZO.SC.M by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 0 0 0 

0 1 2 2 

0 3 4 5 

0 3 5 6 

0 3 5 6 

Table 15.3.14 Net National Change in Jobs for HZO.SC.L by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 1 2 2 

0 5 7 8 

0 12 18 20 

0 13 21 23 

0 13 21 23 

Table 15.3.15 Net National Change in Jobs for HCT.SC.I by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2012 2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 3 5 5 

0 29 41 47 

0 31 44 50 

-1 34 48 55 

-1 34 48 55 

As shown in Table 15.3.1 through Table 15.3.15, the range of efficiency levels for the 

individual CRE product classes has virtually no initial impact on jobs and has a small positive 

impact on jobs in later years. This is further illustrated in Table 15.3.16, which provides the sum 

of employment impacts for commercial refrigeration equipment by TSL and the maximum total 

employment impact associated with the highest efficiency level for each CRE product class. 

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EERE-2006-BT-STD-0126 COMMENT 52.2 
Table 15.3.16 Net National Change in Jobs for all Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 

by TSL 

Trial Standard 

Level 2012 

Net National Change in Jobs 

2022 2032 2042 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

0 

-6 

-15 

-18 

-40 

202 289 

1,056 1,482 

1,618 2,275 

1,658 2,337 

1,856 2,645 

332 

1,699 

2,603 

2,670 

3,011 

As shown in the above tables, the proposed CRE standards have virtually no initial 

impact on jobs and have a small positive impact on jobs in later years. This is explained by the 

fact that the required initial investment in the efficient equipment costs (a few) jobs because the 

investment is capital-intensive relative to other spending in the economy that would be displaced 

to pay for the investment. However, in the long term, the benefit to the economy of the energy 

savings from the installed equipment more than makes up for the initial investment, and the net 

effect on employment is positive. The long-term positive and increasing impact occurs because 

the energy savings in future years are obtained from both current and previous efficiency 

investments reflected in the installed stock of efficient equipment while investment costs for the 

equipment occur only once. Also, employment increases with higher efficiency levels because 

of the energy savings. 

Employment levels exhibit a decreasing rate of increase through time because the energy 

savings decrease through time as the energy efficiency of the stock of equipment increases. The 

increasing efficiency of the stock results from sales of the more efficient equipment and initial 

replacement of less efficient equipment. Over time, only new sales account for efficiency 

increases in the stock because the number of less efficient units being replaced declines to zero. 

Thus, the energy savings and resulting impact on the economy are greater initially, and then 

increase more slowly over time. 

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EERE-2006-BT-STD-0126 COMMENT 52.2 
REFERENCES
 

1. Roop, J.M., M.J. Scott and R.W. Schultz. 2005. ImSET: Impact of Sector Energy 

Technologies. PNNL-15273, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington. 

2. Lawson, Ann M., K.S. Bersani, Mahnaz Fahim-Nader, and Jiemin Guo. 2002. “Benchmark 

Input-Output Accounts of the U.S. Economy, 1997,” Survey of Current Business, December, 

pp. 19-117. 

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EERE-2006-BT-STD-0126 COMMENT 52.2