## M ARYLAND 

## D EPARTMENT OF THE 

## E NVIRONMENT



## A IR AND 

## R

ADIATION 

## M ANAGEMENT 

## A DMINISTRATION**State Implementation Plan**



# Projection Year SIP Emissions Inventory Methodologies

**Prepared for:**

**U.S. Environmental Protection Agency**

**Prepared By:**

**Maryland Department of the Environment**

### Maryland Department of the Environment Projection Year Emissions Inventory Methodologies

 **Maryland Department of the Environment Air and Radiation Management Administration**  **1800 Washington Boulevard, Suite 730 Baltimore, Maryland 21230**  **Phone 410.537.3240 • Fax 410.631.3202 2**  

# Table of Contents

1.1 ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES ............................. ..............................................3

1.2 NONROAD MOBILE SOURCES............................. .............................................3

1.3 POINT SOURCES......................................

................................................... ..........4

1.4 QUASI-POINT SOURCES................................

................................................... ..4

1.5 AREA SOURCES .......................................

................................................... ..........4**3**



## 1.0 PROJECTION YEAR INVENTORY
DEVELOPMENT

**This section describes the proposed approach to est imating future year emissions for the State of**  **Maryland nonattainment areas for the purposes of me eting maintenance plan requirements.** 

**In preparing the projection year inventories, the a pproach should address two components: (1)**  **estimating expected changes in emissions generating activity between the base year (2002) and the**  **projection years; and (2) accounting for changes in emission rates by source category resulting**  **from air pollution regulations or the replacement o f equipment with new, lower emitting**  **technologies. For the first component, the best way for estimating activity changes is to pick an**  **indicator for each source category that has availab le projections data and provides as direct as**  **possible a link to emissions generating activity.**

**Possible sources of projections data, in order of p reference, are: (1) State of Maryland**  **economic/population projections at the State, sub-S tate level, or facility level, (2) recent regional**  **economic projections, or (3) State-level activity p rojections from EPA’s Economic Growth**  **Analysis System (EGAS). EGAS provides growth factor s for the years of interest, which are**  **linked to standard emission inventory Source Classi fication Codes (SCCs).** 

**Modeling of control effects will focus on the sourc e categories whose emission rates are expected**  **to change between 2002 and 2009 or 2014. These sour ce categories include on-road mobile**  **sources, nonroad mobile sources, and residential wo od combustion.** 

1.1 ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES **On-road mobile source emission projections to 2009 and 2014 will be made using**  **MOBILE6.2 emission factors and projections of VMT b y vehicle type, roadway functional**  **classification, and associated speed by the BRTB an d their staff, BMC and MDE.** 

**BRTB and BMC will supply MDE with input data for pr ojection years. The projection year**  **emission estimates will take into account any fuels strategies that were adopted or planned for the**  **area, and any changes in fuel specifications that c hange by month/season in order to calculate**  **winter period and annual average emissions.**

1.2 NONROAD MOBILE SOURCES **The nonroad mobile source sectors for which emissio n projections will be needed include aircraft,**  **locomotives, marine vessels, and EPA NONROAD model categories. Aircraft emission**  **projections will use local airport landing-takeoff projections with adjustments (if needed) to**  **aircraft emission factors to account for the effect s of emission standards, or technology changes.**  **Similar methods are planned for locomotives emissio n projections. For NONROAD model**  **categories, emission projections will be based on r unning the current version of EPA’s**  **NONROAD model for the projection years with Marylan d-specific inputs used in the base year**  **inventory development. NONROAD model inputs are lis ted below.** **4** Parameters: 2002 2008 Uncontrolled 2008

Controlled 2009

Uncontrolled 2009

Controlled
BNAA-MD BNAA-MD BNAA-MD BNAA-MD BNAA-MD Min. Temp. 65.55 65.55 65.55 65.55 65.55 Max. Temp. 87.6 87.6 87.6 87.6 87.6 Avg. Temp. 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8 RVP 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 O2 % 2 2 2 2 2 Gas Sulfur % 0.0162 0.0162 0.003 0.0162 0.003
LPG/CNG Sulfur % 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003
Diesel Sulfur% 0.2283 0.2283 0.0348 0.2283 0.0348
Marine Diesel Sulfur % 0.2638 0.2638 0.0408 0.2638 0.0408 Stage II Control % 0 0 0 0 0

1.3 POINT SOURCES **Point sources will include those with allowable emi ssions of 50 or more tons per year of CO. In**  **addition to the actual emissions reported for each facility, allowable or potential to emit emissions**  **for point sources will be included. These allowable emissions are important to consider in**  **projected emission inventories, especially where th ey are much different than actual emissions.**  **Actual emissions will be forecast to the projection years using EGAS growth surrogates.** 

1.4 QUASI-POINT SOURCES **Quasi-point sources will include all emissions at t he facility regardless of whether they are**  **classified as point, area, nonroad, or mobile sourc e emissions. These emissions are actual**  **emissions reported for the facilities. Actual emis sions will be forecast to the projection years**  **using surrogates specific to each quasi-point sourc e. The growth factor indicators and their**  **sources are listed below by facility:**

Quasi-Point Source Surrogate Growth Indicator

Baltimore Washington International Airport (BWI)

Aircraft LTOs FAA Aircraft Operations Forecasts

Mobile Source Emissions FAA Enplanement Forecasts

Aberdeen Proving Grounds BRAC Population Estimates

1.5 AREA SOURCES **Area source projections are typically made using lo cal information and/or growth surrogates. The**  **effects of any control measures to be implemented b etween the base and projection years are then**  **applied (e.g., using an estimate of control efficie ncy, rule penetration, and rule effectiveness).**  **Projection methods are described below.**

**For all sources except residential wood combustion and agricultural burning (including orchard**  **tear-out burning), emissions will be projected by m ultiplying the base year emission rates by the** **5**

**surrogate activity indicator growth factors. Detail s on the woodstove projection method are**  **described in Section D. Pechan will work with SCAPC A, the Washington State University**  **Cooperative Extension Service and other local agric ultural contacts to estimate future agricultural**  **burning activity levels. Surrogate activity indicat ors for each area source category are shown in the**  **table below.**

Source Category Surrogate Growth Indicator

Petroleum Distribution Losses **Aircraft Refueling EMP**  **Petroleum Vessel Unloading EMP**  **Stage II Refueling GAS**  **Tank Breathing GAS**  **Tank Transit GAS**  **Tank Unloading GAS**  **Portable Fuel Containers POP**  Catastrophic/Accidental Releases **Oil Spills NA**  **Soil Remediation NA**  Fire Sources **Automobile Fires POP**  **Forest Fires NA**  **Slash Burning NA**  **Prescribed Burning NA**  **Structure Fires POP**  Stationary Area **Dry Cleaners POP**  **Architectural Surface Coatings - Water Based POP Architectural Surface Coatings - Solvent Based POP**  **Cold Cleaning/Degreasing EMP**  **Auto Refinishing EMP**  **Traffic Paints - Total POP**  **Commercial - Consumer Solvents POP**  **Emulsified Asphalt POP**  **Graphic Arts POP**  **Industrial Surface Coatings EMP**  **Industrial Adhesives EMP**  **Pesticides NA**  Small Stationary Source Fuel Combustion **Commercial/Institutional Coal Combustion EMP Commercial/Institutional Kerosene Combustion EMP**  **Commercial/Institutional Distillate Oil Combustion EMP**  **Commercial/Institutional Residual Oil Combustion EM P**  **Commercial/Institutional LPG Combustion EMP Commercial/Institutional Natural Gas Combustion EM**  **P Residential Coal Combustion**  **NA Residential Kerosene Combustion**  **HSE Residential Distillate Oil Combustion**  **HSE 6** 

Source Category Surrogate Growth Indicator

**Residential Natural Gas Combustion HSE Residential LPG Combustion**  **HSE Residential Wood Combustion**  **POP Industrial Distillate Oil Combustion**  **EMP Industrial Residual Oil Combustion**  **EMP** Bioprocess Emission Sources **Bakeries POP**  **Brewpubs POP**  **Wineries POP**  **Distilleries NA**  Miscellaneous Area Sources **Agricultural Land Preparation NA**  **Construction – Residential POP**  **Construction – Heavy POP**  **Construction – Road POP**  Solid Waste Treatment, Disposal, and Recovery **Incinerators NA**  **Open Burning – Land Clearing Debris POP**  **Open Burning – Residential Municipal Solid Waste PO P**  **Open Burning – Residential Brush Debris POP Open Burning – Residential Leaf Debris**  **POP Landfills**  **POP POTWs**  **HSE** Nonroad Sources (Outside NONROAD Model) **Military Aircraft EGAS**  **General Aviation Aircraft EGAS**  **Air Taxi Aviation Aircraft EGAS**  **Marine Vessels EMP**  **Railroad Engines EMP** 

**Future year emission projections for RWC will incor porate expected changes in activity and**  **emission factors that account for the anticipated m ix of wood stove types, and their expected CO**  **emission rates for each projection year. The techno logy mixes in 2010 and 2015 are especially**  **important because wood stoves have had to meet a se t of increasingly more stringent new source**  **performance standards. An important assumption in e stimating the technology mix in future years**  **is the expected lifetime/replacement rate for wood stoves. The faster the replacement rate, the**  **lower the average emission rate in future years for the wood stove population. Pechan will use**  **contacts with government agencies and industry to d evelop an estimate of lifetime/replacement.**  **RWC emission estimates for the projection years wil l also account for any local programs to**  **curtail wood stove/fireplace use, etc.**