I 

110TH CONGRESS 

1ST SESSION H. R. 1961 

To address security risks posed by global climate change, and for other 

purposes. 

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

APRIL 19, 2007 

Mr. MARKEY (for himself, Mr. BARTLETT of Maryland, Mr. LARSON of Connecticut, Ms. ESHOO, Ms. SOLIS, Mr. HALL of New York, Mr. 

MCDERMOTT, and Mr. OLVER) introduced the following bill; which was 

referred to the Select Committee on Intelligence (Permanent Select), and 

in addition to the Committees on Armed Services and Foreign Affairs, 

for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case 

for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the 

committee concerned 

A BILL 

To address security risks posed by global climate change, 

and for other purposes. 

1 Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representa2 tives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, 

3 SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE. 

4 This Act may be cited as the ‘‘Global Climate Change 

5 Security Oversight Act’’. 

6 SEC. 2. FINDINGS. 

7 Congress makes the following findings: 

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1 (1) According to the National Oceanic and At2 mospheric Administration, in 2007 the average an3 nual temperature in the United States and around 

4 the global is approximately 1.0 degree Fahrenheit 

5 warmer than at the start of the 20th century, and 

6 the rate of warming has accelerated during the past 

7 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s. 

8 The fourth assessment report of the Intergovern9 mental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that 

10 the Earth will warm 0.72 degrees Fahrenheit during 

11 the next 2 decades with current emission trends. 

12 (2) The annual national security strategy report 

13 submitted pursuant to section 108 of the National 

14 Security Act of 1947 (50 U.S.C. 404a) for 2006 

15 states that the United States faces new security 

16 challenges, including ‘‘environmental destruction, 

17 whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic 

18 mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earth19 quakes, or tsunamis. Problems of this scope may 

20 overwhelm the capacity of local authorities to re21 spond, and may even overtax national militaries, re22 quiring a larger international response. These chal23 lenges are not traditional national security concerns, 

24 such as the conflict of arms or ideologies. But if left 

25 unaddressed they can threaten national security.’’. 

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1 (3) According to the fourth assessment report 

2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 

3 average temperature increases of between 2 and 4 

4 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels are pro5 jected to cause the sea level to rise by between 2 and 

6 4 meters by 2100 due to melting of the Greenland 

7 and Antarctic ice sheets. 

8 (4) In 2007, more than 200,000,000 people live 

9 in coastal floodplains around the world and 

10 2,000,000 square kilometers of land and an esti11 mated $1,000,000,000,000 worth of assets are less 

12 than a 1-meter elevation above sea level. 

13 (5) An estimated 1,700,000,000 people in the 

14 world live in areas where water is scarce and in 25 

15 years that population is projected to increase to 

16 5,400,000,000. Climate change will impact the 

17 hydrological cycle and change the location, time of 

18 year, and intensity of water availability. 

19 (6) The report of the World Health Organiza20 tion entitled ‘‘The World Health Report 2002: Re21 ducing Risks and Promoting Healthy Life’’ states 

22 that ‘‘Effects of climate change on human health 

23 can be expected to be mediated through complex 

24 interactions of physical, ecological, and social fac25 tors. These effects will undoubtedly have a greater 

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1 impact on societies or individuals with scarce re2 sources, where technologies are lacking, and where 

3 infrastructure and institutions (such as the health 

4 sector) are least able to adapt.’’. 

5 (7) Environmental changes relating to global 

6 climate change represent a potentially significant 

7 threat multiplier for instability around the world as 

8 changing precipitation patterns may exacerbate com9 petition and conflict over agricultural, vegetative, 

10 and water resources and displace people, thus in11 creasing hunger and poverty and causing increased 

12 pressure on fragile countries. 

13 (8) The strategic, social, political, and economic 

14 consequences of global climate change are likely to 

15 have a greater adverse effect on less developed coun16 tries with fewer resources and infrastructures that 

17 are less able to adjust to new economic and social 

18 pressures, and where the margin for governance and 

19 survival is thin. 

20 (9) The consequences of global climate change 

21 represent a clear and present danger to the security 

22 and economy of the United States. 

23 (10) A failure to recognize, plan for, and miti24 gate the strategic, social, political, and economic ef25 fects of a changing climate will have an adverse immstockstill on PROD1PC66 with BILLS

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1 pact on the national security interests of the United 

2 States. 

3 SEC. 3. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON GLOBAL 

4 CLIMATE CHANGE. 

5 (a) REQUIREMENT FOR NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

6 ESTIMATE.— 

7 (1) IN GENERAL.—Except as provided in para8 graph (2), not later than 270 days after the date of 

9 enactment of this Act, the Director of National In10 telligence shall submit to Congress a National Intel11 ligence Estimate on the anticipated geopolitical ef12 fects of global climate change and the implications 

13 of such effects on the national security of the United 

14 States. 

15 (2) NOTICE REGARDING SUBMITTAL.—If the 

16 Director of National Intelligence determines that the 

17 National Intelligence Estimate required by para18 graph (1) cannot be submitted by the date set out 

19 in that paragraph, the Director shall notify Congress 

20 and provide— 

21 (A) the reasons that the National Intel22 ligence Estimate cannot be submitted by such 

23 date; and 

24 (B) an estimated date for the submittal of 

25 the National Intelligence Estimate. 

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1 (b) CONTENT.—The Director of National Intelligence 

2 shall prepare the National Intelligence Estimate required 

3 by this section using the mid-range projections of the 

4 fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel 

5 on Climate Change— 

6 (1) to assess the political, social, agricultural, 

7 and economic risks during the 30-year period begin8 ning on the date of enactment of this Act posed by 

9 global climate change for countries or regions that 

10 are— 

11 (A) of strategic economic or military im12 portance to the United States and at risk of 

13 significant impact due to global climate change; 

14 or 

15 (B) at significant risk of large-scale hu16 manitarian suffering with cross-border implica17 tions as predicted on the basis of the assess18 ments; 

19 (2) to assess other risks posed by global climate 

20 change, including increased conflict over resources or 

21 between ethnic groups, within countries or 

22 transnationally, increased displacement or forced mi23 grations of vulnerable populations due to inundation 

24 or other causes, increased food insecurity, and inmstockstill on PROD1PC66 with BILLS

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1 creased risks to human health from infectious dis2 ease; 

3 (3) to assess the capabilities of the countries or 

4 regions described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of 

5 paragraph (1) to respond to adverse impacts caused 

6 by global climate change; 

7 (4) to assess the strategic challenges and oppor8 tunities posed to the United States by the risks de9 scribed in paragraph (1); 

10 (5) to assess the security implications and op11 portunities for the United States economy of engag12 ing, or failing to engage successfully, with other 

13 leading and emerging major contributors of green14 house gas emissions in efforts to reduce emissions 

15 and adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, in16 cluding transitioning from reliance upon finite fossil 

17 fuels such as imported petroleum and natural gas to 

18 clean domestic renewable energy sources; and 

19 (6) to make recommendations for further as20 sessments of security consequences of global climate 

21 change that would improve national security plan22 ning. 

23 (c) COORDINATION.—In preparing the National In24 telligence Estimate under this section, the Director of Na25 tional Intelligence shall consult with representatives of the 

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1 scientific community, including atmospheric and climate 

2 studies, security studies, conflict studies, economic assess3 ments, and environmental security studies, the Secretaries 

4 of Defense, State, Treasury, Commerce, Energy, Agri5 culture, and Transportation, the Federal Reserve Board, 

6 and the United States Trade Representative, the Adminis7 trator of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric 

8 Administration, the Administrator of the National Aero9 nautics and Space Administration, the Administrator of 

10 the Environmental Protection Agency, and, if appropriate, 

11 multilateral institutions and allies of the United States 

12 that have conducted significant research on global climate 

13 change. 

14 (d) FORM.—The National Intelligence Estimate re15 quired by this section shall be submitted in unclassified 

16 form, to the extent consistent with the protection of intel17 ligence sources and methods, and include unclassified key 

18 judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate. Such 

19 National Intelligence Estimate may include a classified 

20 annex. 

21 SEC. 4. RESPONSE TO THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTI22 MATE. 

23 (a) REPORT BY THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE.—Not 

24 later than 270 days after the date that the National Intel25 ligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to 

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1 Congress, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the the 

2 Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Armed 

3 Services, and the Permanent Select Committee on Intel4 ligence of the United States House of Representatives and 

5 Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Armed 

6 Services, and the Select Committee on Intelligence of the 

7 United States Senate a report on— 

8 (1) the projected impact on the military instal9 lations and capabilities of the United States of the 

10 effects of global climate change as assessed in the 

11 National Intelligence Estimate; 

12 (2) the projected impact on United States mili13 tary operations of the effects of global climate 

14 change described in the National Intelligence Esti15 mate; and 

16 (3) recommended research and analysis needed 

17 to further assess the impacts on the military of glob18 al climate change. 

19 (b) SENSE OF CONGRESS ON THE NEXT QUADREN20 NIAL DEFENSE REVIEW.—It is the sense of Congress that 

21 the Secretary of Defense should address the findings of 

22 the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 

23 regarding the impact of global climate change and poten24 tial implications of such impact on the Armed Forces and 

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1 for the size, composition, and capabilities of Armed Forces 

2 in the next Quadrennial Defense Review. 

3 (c) REPORT BY THE SECRETARY OF STATE.—Not 

4 later than 270 days after the date that the National Intel5 ligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to 

6 Congress, the Secretary of State shall submit to the Com7 mittee on Appropriations, the Committee on Foreign Af8 fairs, and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence 

9 of the United States House of Representatives and the 

10 Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Foreign 

11 Relations, and the Select Committee on Intelligence of the 

12 United States Senate a report that addresses— 

13 (1) the potential for large migration flows in 

14 countries of strategic interest or humanitarian con15 cern as a response to changes in climate and the im16 plications for United States security interests; and 

17 (2) the potential for diplomatic opportunities 

18 and challenges facing United States policy makers 

19 as a result of social, economic, or political responses 

20 of groups or nations to global changing climate. 

21 SEC. 5. AUTHORIZATION OF RESEARCH. 

22 (a) IN GENERAL.—The Secretary of Defense is au23 thorized to carry out research on the impacts of global 

24 climate change on military operations, doctrine, organiza25 tion, training, material, logistics, personnel, and facilities 

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1 and the actions needed to address those impacts. Such re2 search may include— 

3 (1) the use of war gaming and other analytical 

4 exercises; 

5 (2) analysis of the implications for United 

6 States defense capabilities of large-scale Arctic sea7 ice melt and broader changes in Arctic climate; 

8 (3) analysis of the implications for United 

9 States defense capabilities of abrupt climate change; 

10 (4) analysis of the implications of the findings 

11 derived from the National Intelligence Estimate re12 quired in section 3 Act for United States defense ca13 pabilities; 

14 (5) analysis of the strategic implications for 

15 United States defense capabilities of direct physical 

16 threats to the United States posed by extreme 

17 weather events such as hurricanes; and 

18 (6) analysis of the existing policies of the De19 partment of Defense to assess the adequacy of the 

20 Department’s protections against climate risks to 

21 United States capabilities and military interests in 

22 foreign countries. 

23 (b) REPORT.—Not later than 2 years after the date 

24 that the National Intelligence Estimate required by sec25 tion 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of Defense 

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1 shall submit to Congress a report on the results of the 

2 research, war games, and other activities carried out pur3 suant to subsection (a). 

4 SEC. 6. AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS. 

5 There is authorized to be appropriated such sums as 

6 may be necessary to carry out this Act. 

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