## Chapt er Three - S o urces of Impai r

m ent in Nevada

3.1 BACKGROUND

3.2 SOURCES OF VISIB ILITY IMPAIRMENT

3.2.1 Natural Sources of Visibility Im pairm e nt 3.2.2 Anthropogenic Sources of Visibility Im pair m e nt



### 3.3 DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2002 AND 2 018 EMISSION INVENTORIES

3.4 POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY

3.4.1 2000-2004 Baseline Em issions 3.4.2 2018 Projected Em issions



### 3.5 FIRE EMI SSION INVENTORY

3.6 AREA SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY

3.7 OVERVIEW OF EMISSION INVENTORY SYSTEM – TSS

3.8 EMISSIONS IN NEVADA

3.8.1 Nevada SO x Em ission Inventory for 2002 and 2018 3.8.2 Nevada NO x Em ission Inventory for 2002 and 2018 3.8.3 Nevada VOC Em ission Inventory for 2002 and 2018 3.8.4 Nevada POA Em ission Inventory for 2002 and 2018 3.8.5 Nevada EC Em ission Inventory for 2002 and 2018 3.8.6 Nevada PM Fine Em ission Inventory for 2002 and 2018 3.8.7 Nevada PM Coarse Em ission Inventory for 2002 and 2018 3.8.8 Nevada NH 3 Em ission Inventory for 2002 and 2018



### 3.9 SUMMARY OF 2018 EMISSION PROJECTIONS

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-1NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-2 3.1 BACKGROUND

Federal visibility regulations at 40 CFR 51.308(d )(4)(v) require a statewide emission inventory of pollutants that are reasonably an ticipated to cause or contribute to visibility impairment in any mandatory Class I area. The pollutants discu ssed in this chapter are sulfur oxides (SO x ), which include the particulate and gase ous phase, sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), which includes the gas phase only, nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds ( VOC), primary organic aerosol (POA), elemental carbon (EC), PM fine (PMF ), PM coarse (PMC), and ammonia (NH 3 ). Emission scenarios that were used for this analysis were the “Plan02d” and “PRP18a” inventories and were obtained from the Technical Support System (TSS ) ( http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/Emissions.aspx )

. These inventories represent a series of refinements to previous inventories reflecting increasing levels of qual ity control and quality assurance by states and Western Regional Air Partnership’s (WRAP) Re gional Modeling Center (RMC) contractors.

This chapter presents the analysis of the sources of emissions of visibi lity impairing pollutants identified above. Emission inventories form one leg of the analysis stoo l to evaluate sources’ impacts on visibility. Emission inventories were created for all critical chemicals or species known to directly or indirectly impact visual ai r quality. These inventories were input into air quality models to predict concen trations of pollutants over a give n space and time. In support of the WRAP Regional Haze effort, RMC develo ped emissions inventories representing:

• 2002 Actual Baseline Emissions (Base02)

• 2000 Through 2004 Typical Baseline Emissions (Plan02)

• 2018 Base Case Emissions (Base18)

• 2018 Preliminary Reasonable Progress Emissions (PRP18)

The base and plan inventories represent a series of refinements to e ach inventory reflecting increasing levels of quality cont rol and quality assurance by states and RMC contractors. The purpose of the Base02 inventory is to represent the actual conditions in calendar year 2002 with respect to ambient air quality and the associated sources of visibility im pairing air pollutants. The purpose of the Plan02 inventory is to repres ent baseline emission patterns based on average, or “typical”, conditions. It pr ovides a basis for comparison with the 2018 projected emissions, as well as for gauging reasonable progress with respect to future year visibility.

Base18 represents conditions in future year 2018 with respect to sources of criteria and particulate matter air pollutants, taking into c onsideration growth and controls. The Base18 emissions scenario includes reductions due to “on-the-way” and “on-the-books” controls, consent decree reductions, SIP control measures, a nd other relevant regula tions that have gone into effect since 2002, or will go into effect before the end of 2018. Modeling results based on the Base18 emission inventory are used to defi ne the future year ambient air quality andvisibility metrics. The PRP18 inventory was created to establish the most representative sourcespecific emissions projections data as the basi s for preparing regional haze plans. The PRP18 inventory includes reductions to SO x based on presumptive Best Available Retrofit Technology (BART) emission limits for large electric ge nerating units (EGU)’s subject to BART.NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-3 Dispersion modeling predicts dail y atmospheric concentrations of pollutants for the baseline year, and these modeled results are compared to monitored data taken from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (I MPROVE) network. A second inventory is then created to predict emissions in 2018 based on expected controls, growth or other factors. Additional inventories are also crea ted for future years to simulate the impact of different control strategies.

3.2 SOURCES OF VISIBILITY IMPAIRMENT

Emissions have been categorized by pollutant, so urce category and source area to provide for emissions analyses (Table 3-1).

TABLE 3-1

SUMMARY OF POLLUTANTS, SOURCE CATEGORIES, AND SOURCE AREAS

Pollutants Source Categories Source Areas Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) Point Sources Pacific Offshore Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) Anthropogenic Fire Sources Atlantic/Gulf Offshore Volatile organic carbon (VOC ) Area Sources WRAP States Primary organic aerosol (POA) WRAP Oil and Gas Sources CENRAP States Elemental carbon (EC) On-Road Mobile Sources Midwest RPO States Particulate matter fine (PMF) Off-Road Mobile Sources MANE - VU States Particulate matter coarse (PMC) Road Dust VISTAS States Ammonia (NH 3 ) Fugitive Dust Canada Natural Fire Sources Mexico

Biogenic Sources Wind Blown Dust

Natural fire sources, biogenic sour ces and windblown dust are shown in italics to denote that they are natural sources; all ot her sources are anthropogenic.

3.2.1 Natural Sources of Visibility Impairment

Natural sources of visibility impairment include anything not directly attr ibuted to human-caused emissions of visibility-impairing pollutants. Na tural events (e.g. natural fire, biogenic emissions, and windblown dust) also introduce pollutants that c ontribute to haze in the atmosphere. Natural sources contribute to visibility impairment but natural emissions cannot be realistically controlled or prevented by Nevada or other regulatory agencies. In Nevada, natural sources are important contributors of EC, PM fine, PM coarse, POA, and VOC emissions.

3.2.2 Anthropogenic Sources of Visibility Impairment

Anthropogenic or human-caused sources of visib ility impairment include anything directly attributable to human-caused activ ities that produce emissions of vi sibility-impairing pollutants. Some examples include point sour ces, area sources, mobile sources, oil and gas sources, roadNEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-4 dust, fugitive dust and anthropogenic fires. Generally anthropogenic emissions include not only those that are generated or or iginated within the boundaries of the United States, but also international emissions that are generated outside of th e United States but transported into the region. Some examples include emissions fr om Mexico, Canada and maritime shipping emissions in the Pacific Ocean. Note that Mexi can and Canadian emission inventories include both anthropogenic and natural emissions.

Although international anthropogenic sources cont ribute to visibility impairment, they cannot be regulated, controlled or prevented by Nevada and, as with natural emissions, are beyond the scope of this planning docum ent. Any reductions in international emissions would likely fall under the purview of the USEPA administrator. Table 3-2 shows that in Nevada, anthropogenic s ources are important contributors of SO x , NO x, and NH 3 . The source of data summarized in Table 3-2 is shown in more detail in section 3.8.

TABLE 3-2

SUMMARY OF ANTHROPOGENIC AND NATURAL EMISSION SOURCES IN NEVADA

2002 2018 Anthropogenic Natural Anthropogenic Natural

Pollutant Sources Sources Sources Sources

SO x 96% 4% 94% 6% NO x 86% 14% 83% 17% EC 27% 73% 17% 83%

PMF 44% 56% 51% 49% PMC 38% 62% 47% 53%

NH 3 86% 14% 88% 12% POA 9% 91% 9% 91% VOC 10% 90% 10% 90% Total emissions: 28% 72% 27% 73%

3.3 DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2002 AND 2018 EMISSION INVENTORIES

In general, emission inputs were prepared by indi vidual states and tribes for point, area and most dust emissions categories. With input and revi ew by states, tribes and Federal Land Managers, WRAP forums and workgroups pr epared consistent and compar able WRAP region emissions data for the mobile, fire, ammonia, area source oil and gas, eastern Pacific offshore shipping, some dust and biogenics emissions categories. The WRAP RMC gathered the latest, best and most representative emissions estimates at the time from the CENWRAP, Eastern U.S., Canada and Mexico regions in executing the sequence of modeling simulations discussed below. Boundary conditions reaching North America from the rest of the world were jointly prepared byNEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-5 all five Regional Planning Organizations (R PO)s from the GEOS-Chem global model.

The original 2002 and 2018 stationary point and area source emission inventories were developed by Eastern Research Group, Inc. (E RG) in 2005. At the request of the Western Governors’ Association and the WRAP Stationary Sources Joint Forum, ERG calculated point and area sources emission projections for th e Base18 inventory. A summary document was prepared by ERG January 25, 2006 ( http://wrapair.org/forums/ssjf/docum ents/eictts/docs/WRAP_2018_EI-Version_1- Report_Jan2006.pdf ). The original inventories evolved from states’ actual emissions data submitted to USEPA for the 2002 National Emissi on Inventory (NEI). The 2002 NEI consisted of a complete set of point, non-point and mobile data that had been submitted to EPA. The 2002emission inventory was chosen to provide a baseline against which reductions in visibilityimpairing pollutants could be measured over ti me. The 2018 emission inventory was developed because 2018 is the year the first regional haze SIP planning period ends. Historical development of the different versions of the em ission inventories that were developed for the Base02, the Plan02, the Base18 and the PRP18 inventorie s is described in detail in Chapter One.

3.4 POINT SOURCE EMISSION INVENTORY

Point sources are identified by point locations, typically because they are regulated and their locations are available in regulat ory reports. Point sources can be further subdivided into EGU sources and non-EGU sources, particularly in crit eria inventories in wh ich EGUs are a primary source of NO x and SO x .

3.4.1 2000-2004 Baseline Emissions

A summary of NO x and SO 2 emissions for the baseline period (Plan02d) in Nevada is noted in Table 3-3 by total tons and percent of total emissions by pollutant. The Plan02d inventory shows that nine facilities in Nevada contain 99 percent of the total SO 2 point emissions and that 19 facilities contribute to 97 percent of the total NO x emissions in Nevada.

The data in Table 3-3 was compiled for the ba seline period from the Plan02d inventory point source emissions-pivot table (01/14/ 08), located on the WRAP website ( http://www.wrapair.org /forums/ssjf/pivot.html ).NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-6 TABLE 3-3

SUMMARY OF SO 2 AND NO X EMISSIONS FROM NEVADA POINT SOURCES FOR THE BASELINE PERIOD

SO 2 NO x

Annual Emissions (tpy) Number of Facilities Cumulative Percent of Total Point Source Emissions Number of Facilities Cumulative Percent of Total Point Source Emissions > 10,000 1 79.5% 2 51.7% 2,000 to 10,000 1 93.1% 5 86.3%

500 to 2000 1 97.0% 4 94.4% 100 to 500 6 99.0% 8 97.0%

3.4.2 2018 Projected Emissions

SO x includes emissions from both the particulate and gaseous phase. SO 2 refers only to emissions from the gaseous phase. The pi vot tables only included emissions for SO 2 . The TSS contained data for both SO 2 and SO x. SO 2 emissions from point source s in Nevada are projected to total 27,526 tons from 13 facilities (three of which are proposed coal EGU facilities) by 2018. These 13 facilities represent 97.7 percent of the total SO 2 emissions from all point sources (28,167 tons) and 97.2 percent of the total SO x emissions from all pointsources (28,320 tons); see Table 3-4. The increase in point SO 2 vs. point SO x emissions for the 2018 inventory is 153 tons; a 0.5 percent difference. The difference in total SO 2 emissions vs. total SO x emissions for Nevada is an increase of 1.8 percent for the plan02d inventory and 2.5 percent for the PRP18a inventory. This equates to an increase in 1,236 tons for the plan02d inventory and 1,105 tons for the PRP18a inventory.

Figure 3-1 shows the percent contribution by source category for SO x emissions projected for 2018, while Figure 3-2 shows the same for NO x . Point sources repres ent 61 percent, area sources 31 percent, natural source s 6 percent and other source cat egories 2 percent of the total SO x emissions. Natural sources include windbl own dust, natural fire and biogenic source categories. Other includes on-road and off-road mobile sources, road dust, fugitive dust and anthropogenic fire source categories.FIGURE 3-1

PERCE NT CONT RIBUTION BY S OUR CE C A TEGORY F O R SO x

SO x E m i ssi on s f o r P R P 1 8 a

2% 6%

61 % 31% Po i n t So u r c e s Ar e a So u r c e s Na t u r a l S o u r c e s Ot h e r

NO x e m issions from point sources in Nevada are projected to total 65,581 t ons from 15 facilities (thre e of which ar e prop osed coal E GU f acilitie s and two ar e natur a l gas EGU f acilities) by 2018. These 15 facilities represen t 97 percent of the total NO x em issions from all point sources (67,632 tons) see Table 3-4. The pie chart shows the percent contribution by source category for NO x e m issions projected for 2018. Point sources represent 50 percent, m o bile sources 27 percent, natural sources 17 percent, a nd area sources 5 percent of the total SO 2 em issions. The

rem a ining one percen t consists of em issions fr om oil and gas, fugitive d u st and an th ropogenic fire source categories.

FIGURE 3-2

PERCE NT CONT RIBUTION BY S OUR CE C A TEGORY F O R NO x

NO x E m i ssi on s f o r P R P 18a

17 %

50%

5% 27% Po i n t S o u r c e s Ar e a S o u r c e s M obi l e S o u r ce s Na t u r a l S o u r c e s

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-7NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-8 The data in Table 3-4 for SO 2 and NO x was compiled from the 2018 inventory, PRP18a (11/14/07) point source emissions-pivot table, located on the WRAP website ( http://www.wrapair.org /forums/ssjf/pivot.html ). Nevada anticipates ev en further reductions in the future for both SO x and NO x from the projected controls to be installed at Nevada’s four BART facilities. Chap ter Five discusses those controls and proposed emission reductions in detail.

TABLE 3-4

SUMMARY OF SO 2 AND NO X EMISSIONS FROM NEVADA POINT SOURCES FOR 2018

SO 2 NO x

Annual Emissions (tpy) Number of Facilities Cumulative Percent of Total Point Source Emissions Number of Facilities Cumulative Percent of Total Point Source Emissions > 10,000 0 0% 1 29.0% 2,000 to 10,000 3 78.7% 6 76.3%

500 to 2000 3 92.5% 8 90.8% 100 to 500 7 97.7% 15 97.0%

Table 3-5 shows emission projections for proposed EGU facilities as estimated for the 2018 emission inventory (PRP18a). TABLE 3-5

PROPOSED 2018 EGUs AND CURRENT PERMIT ACTIVITY

NO x PM 10 SO 2 Proposed EGUs in 2018 Emission Inventory (tpy) (tpy) (tpy) Future Coal EGU (Newmont - No rthern Nevada Energy) 499 89 670 Future Natural Gas EGU (Copper Mountain - Sempra Energy) 887 71 6 Future Natural Gas EGU (Chuck Lenzie - NV Energy) 739 59 5 Future Coal EGU (White Pine Energy Association/LS Power) 3,909 670 4,356 Future Coal EGU (A) 1,340 261 1,452 Total Emissions from proposed 2018 EGUs 7,374 1,150 6,489

VOC, POA, EC, PMF and PMC emissions are do minated by natural sources. Figures 3-3 through 3-8 show a graphical repr esentation for the projected PR P18a emissions. Figure 3-3 shows that natural sources, primarily from bioge nic sources, represent 90 percent of the total projected VOC emissions.FIGURE 3-3

PERCE NT CONT RIBUTION BY S OUR CE C A TEGORY F O R VOC

VO C Em is s i o n s f o r PR P1 8 a

6%

3%

90% Ar e a So u r c e s M obi l e S o u r ces Na t u r a l S o u r c e s

Figure 3-4 shows the percent contribution by so urce category for POA e m issions projected for 2018. Natural fires comprise the m a jori ty of POA e m issions at 91 percent.

FIGURE 3-4

PERCE NT CONT RIBUTION BY S OUR CE C A TEGORY F O R POA

P O A E m i s s i o n s f o r PR P1 8 a

2% 3% 1% 3%

91 % Po i n t So u r c e s Ar e a So u r c e s Mo b i l e S o u r c e s N a t u ra l F i re Oth e r

Figure 3-5 shows the percent contribution by so urce category for EC e m issions projected for 2018. Natural fires comprise the m a jori ty of EC em issions at 83 percent.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-9FIGURE 3-5

PERCE NT CONT RIBUTION BY S OUR CE C A TEGORY F O R EC

EC Em i s s i o n s f o r P R P1 8 a

1%

83% 2%

14%

Ar e a So u r c e s M obi l e S o u r c e s N a t u ra l F i re Oth e r

Figure 3-6 shows the percent contribution by sour ce category for PM fine em issions projected for 2018. Natural sources, prim arily from windblo wn dust, 43 percent, and natural fire, six percent, comprise the m a jority of PM fine em i ssions. Fugitive Dust is also a significant contributor of PM fine em issions at 30 percent.

FIGURE 3-6

PERCE NT CONT RIBUTION BY S OUR CE C A TEGORY F O R PM FINE

P M fi n e E m s s i o n s fo r P R P 1 8 a

5% 9%

30% 49 % 7%

Po i n t S o u r c e s Ar e a So u r c e s F u g i ti v e D u s t Na t u r a l S o u r c e s Oth e r

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-10 Figure 3-7 shows the percent contribution by sour ce category for PM coarse em issions projected for 2018. Natural sources, prim arily from windblo wn dust, 50 percent, and natural fire, three percent, comprise the m a jority of PM fine em i ssions. Fugitive Dust is also a significant contributor of PM coarse em issions at 36 percent.FIGURE 3-7

PERCE NT CONT RIBUTION BY S OUR CE CATEGORY F O R PM COARSE

P M coar s e E m i s s i on s f o r P R P 18a

36% 8%

53% 0. 5% 2. 5%

Po i n t So u r c e s Ar e a So u r c e s F u g i ti v e D u s t Na t u r a l S o u r c e s Oth e r

Figure 3-8 shows the percent contribution by source category for NH 3 e m issions projected for 2018. Area sources, 59 percent, co mprise the m a jority of NH 3 e m issions. Mobile sources also a significant contributor of NH 3 e m issions at 23.5 percent.

FIGURE 3-8

PERCE NT CONT RIBUTION BY S OUR CE C A TEGORY F O R AMMONIA

NH 3 E m i ssi o n s f o r P R P 1 8 a

23

. 5 %

59 % 6% 11

. 5 %

Po i n t S o u r c e s Ar e a S o u r c e s Mo b i l e S o u r c e s Na t u r a l S o u r c e s

3.5 FIRE EMI SSION INVENTORY

The Fire Emissions Joint Forum of the W R AP, through a contract issued by the WGA to Air Sciences Inc. and E C/R incorporated, prepar ed Phase III baseline pe riod (2000-2004) and Phase

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-11NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-12 IV projection year (PRP18a) fi re emission inventories. A document was produced May 2007 describing these inventories. http://www.wrapair.org/forums/f ejf/documents/task7/Phase3- 4EI/WRAP_Fire_Ph3-4_EI_Report_20070515.pdf . Inventory years 2000 through 2004 were used to estimate the emissions fo r the 2000 through 2004 baseline period.

For the fire inventories in the Base02 inve ntory, actual 2002 data developed by the Regional Planning Organization’ for the United States, ve rsion 2 of the year 2000 Canadian inventory and actual 2002 data for Ontario, Canada were use d. There were no fire emissions in the 1999 Mexico inventories, so Mexican fires were not included in the Base02 inventories. The fire emission inventories developed for the WRAP modeling efforts were organized into seven source categories: wildfires, agricultural fires, wildland fire use, natural prescribed, anthropogenic prescribed, non-Federal rangeland fires and non-WRAP fires. The baseline period fire emission inventories were built based upon the Fire Emissions Joint Forum’s Phase II (historical 2002) inventories for wildfire, wildland fire use, prescribed burning, agricultural burning and non-federal rangeland burning.

The difference between the Base02 and the Plan02 i nventories was that actual fire data was used in Base02 and an average of fire data for y ears 2000 through 2004 was used to smooth out the high 2002 fire year to give a more typical fire inventory for Plan02. Thus, the Base02 was used for model performance evaluation and to represen t actual emissions for comparison with actual data. Plan02 data was used for planning purposes as a typical dataset for the baseline period.

In the Base18b inventory fo r WRAP, CENRAP, and VISTAS, the baseline fire emission inventories were held constant at Plan02 typical emission leve ls. The Natural Fire source category emission inventory pr ojection was held constant from 2002 to 2018 (PRP18a).

3.6 AREA SOURCE INVENTORY

The area source emission inventory was primarily driven by population and/or economic growth as expressed by growth factors from USEPA’s EGAS growth factor model. EGAS Version 5.0 generates SCC-specific growth factors for a specified geographic area using various socioeconomic data. For area sources, growth factors were obtained from one of three sources: the EGAS growth factor model, energy projections from Energy Information Administration or agricultural crop projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

3.7 OVERVIEW OF EMISSION INVENTORY SYSTEM - TSS

The WRAP developed the Technical Support System (TSS) as an Internet access portal to all the data and analysis associated w ith the development of the techni cal foundations of regional haze plans across the Western US. The TSS provides state, county and grid cell level emissions information for typical criteria pollutants such as SO 2 and NO x and other secondary particulate forming pollutants such as VOC and NH 3 . Eleven different emission inventories were developed comprising the following source categories: point, area, on-road mobile, off-road mobile, oil and gas, anthropogenic fire, natural fire, biogenic, road dust, fugitive dus t and windblown dust. More detailed information on the emission i nventory information can be found on the WRAP TSS website at the following link: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/Emissions.aspx

.NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-13 Additional emission information including region al emissions can be found on the WRAP RMC website at: http://pah.cert .ucr.edu/aqm/308/.

3.8 EMISSIONS IN NEVADA

The pollutants inventoried by the WRAP include SO 2 , SO x , NO x , VOC, POA, EC, fine particulate (Soil-PM 2.5 ), coarse particulate (PM 2.5 to PM 10 ), and NH 3 . An inventory was developed for the baseline year 2002, and projecti ons of future emissions have been made for 2018. Nevada will provide updates to the WRAP on this inventory on a periodic basis. For purposes of the Regional Haze SIP, the WRAP de veloped emission inventories for each state with input from participating stakeholders.

The process for inventorying sources is similar fo r all species of interest . The number and types of sources is identified by various methods. Fo r example, major stationa ry sources report actual annual emission rates to the US EPA national emissions database . Nevada collects annual emission data from both major and minor sources a nd this information is used as input into the emissions inventory. In other ca ses, such as mobile sources, a USEPA mobile source emissions model is used to develop emission projections . Nevada vehicle registration, vehicle mile traveled information and other vehicle data are used to tailor the mobile source data to best represent statewide and area specific emissions. Population, employment and household data are used in other parts of the emissions modeling to characterize emissions from area sources such as home heating. Thus, for each source type, emissions are calculated based on an emission rate and the amount of time the source is operati ng. Emission rates can be based on actual measurements from the source, or USEPA emissi on factors based on data from tests of similar types of emission sources. In essence, all sour ces go through a similar pr ocess. The number of sources is identified, emission rates are determin ed by measurements of those types of sources and the time of operation is determined. Annual emissions can be obtained by multiplying the emission rate times the number of hours of operation in a year.

Table 3-6 summarizes Nevada’s statewide emi ssions for 2002 and 2018 projections in tons and are noted as either anthropogenic sources or natural sources. Th e percent change in tons from 2002 to 2018 is shown on a pollutant basis. Detaile d discussions of each pollutant are described in the following sections. Based on the inform ation presented in Table 3-6 the projected (PRP18a) sum of anthropogenic emissions for SO x and NO x for all source categories is 11.7 percent of the total 2018 projected sum of emi ssions statewide.

The figures and tables in this section and the remainder of this chapter are based on the Plan02d and PRP18a emission inventories. These invent ories are described in detail in Chapter One, Section 1.3.2.NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-14 TABLE 3-6

EMISSIONS SUMMARY TABLE FO R NEVADA FOR 2002 AND 2018: NATURAL VS. ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES

Emissions Summary Table (tons per year) 2002 2018Anthropogenic Natural Total Tons Anthropogenic Natural Total Tons Percent Source Source 2002 Source Source 2018 Change

SO x 66,195 2,784 68,979 43,440 2,784 46,224 -33.0% NO x 139,372 23,102 162,475 112,394 23,102 135,496 -16.6% EC 1,735 4,674 6,409 964 4,674 5,638 -12.0%

PMF 9,125 11,845 20,969 12,289 11,845 24,134 15.1% PMC 62,020 99,122 161,142 89,165 99,122 188,287 16.8% NH 3 10,408 1,684 12,092 12,819 1,684 14,503 19.9% POA (OC) 2,233 22,501 24,734 2,321 22,501 24,822 0.4% VOC 85,357 811,745 897,102 85,962 811,745 897,707 0.1% Total emissions: 376,444 977,458 1,353,902 359,354 977,458 1,336,811 -1.3%

3.8.1 Nevada SO x Emission Inventory for 2002 and 2018

Sulfur dioxide gases (SO 2 ) are formed when sulfur-containing fuels, such as diesel or coal, are burned, when gasoline is extracted from oil or when metals are extracted from ore. SO 2 dissolves in water vapor to form acid, and cont ributes to the formation of sulfate compounds [e.g. (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 ] when ammonia is available. These co mpounds can scatter the transmission of light, thus contributing to vi sibility reduction on a regional scale at our Class 1 Area.

Sulfur dioxide emissions produce sulfate partic les in the atmosphere. Ammonium sulfate particles have a significantly greater impact on visibility than other pollutants like dust from unpaved roads due to the physical characterist ics causing greater light scattering from the particles. Sulfur dioxide emissions come primarily from coal combustion at electrical generation facilities but smaller amounts come from natura l gas combustion, mobile sources and even wood combustion.

A 33 percent statewide reduction in SO x emissions is expected by 2018 due to planned controls on existing sources; even with the growth considerat ion in electric generating power for the state. Point sources account for 74 percent of SO x emissions in the Plan02d inventory and decrease to 60 percent for 2018 projections as a result of stat ionary source controls . The PRP18 inventory included reductions to SO x presumptive limits for subject to BART large EGU’s. Power plants with a total generating ca pacity in excess of 750 MW must meet specific control levels for SO 2 of either 95 percent control or 0.15 lbs/ MMBtu, for each EGU greater than 200 MW. Reductions seen in mobile source emissions are a result from the implementation of low-sulfurdiesel fuel standards and other control program s discussed in Chapter Six. SO x e m issions from road dust an d f ugitive du st and to a le sser ex tent f r om area sources a r e an ticipa ted to increas e by 2018. Sim ilar reductions in the west are expected from other states as B A RT and other planned controls take effect by 2018.

Figure 3-9 and Table 3-7 show the overall ne t decrease in em issions from 2002 to 2018 for Sulfur Oxides by source category. In all inst ances, ND m e a n s that you would never see these pollutants for these source categories (i.e. they do not exist from these em ission sources).

FIGURE 3-9

NEVADA S O x EMISSION INVE NTORY – 20 02 AND 20 18

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-15NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-16 TABLE 3-7

NEVADA SO x EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY FOR 2002 AND 2018

Nevada Planning and Baseline Emission Inventories Statewide SO x Plan 02d PRP 18a Source Category (tpy) (tpy) Net Change

Point 50,947 28,320 -44% Area 13,037 14,280 10% On-Road Mobile 510 336 -34% Off-Road Mobile 1,672 473 -72% Oil and Gas 1 0 -94%

Road Dust 3 5 53% Fugitive Dust 10 13 35% Windblown Dust ND ND ND Anthro Fire 14 12 -14% Natural Fire 2,784 2,784 0% Biogenic ND ND ND Total: 68,979 46,224 -33%

Figure 3-10, “Regional Maps of SO x Emissions for 2002 and 2018,” shows extensive areas within Nevada with less th an 10 tons per year of SO x emissions. Areas with more color are from urban/industrial areas of Reno and Las Vegas; a fe w larger areas of greater emissions are due to EGUs or other large point sources.

Figure 3-11, provides the Plan02d and PRP18a regional sulfur oxides (SO x) emission maps with the location of the JARB1 IMPROVE monitor id entified with a green star surrounded by 100 km and 200 km radius concentric circles.FIGURE 3-10 REGIONAL MAPS OF SO x EMISSIONS FOR 2002 AND 2018 2002

2018

Figure 3-11 shows SO x em issions by county and contribu tion by source category. Clark and Hum boldt counties are dom i nate d by point source em issions for 2002. Eureka, Humboldt and White Pine counties’ projected em ission increases for 2018 are prim arily due to EGU sources. Area sources are the second m o st dom inant contributor to SO x em issions for Clark and W a shoe counties.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-17FIGURE 3-11

SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS BY COUNTY ( P lan02d) AND (PRP18 a)

3.8.2 Nevada NO X Emission Inventory for 2002 and 2018

NO x is generated during any com bustion pro cess where nitrogen and oxygen from the

atm o sphere com b ine together under high tem p eratur e to f o r m nitric ox ide and to a lesser degree nitrogen dioxide and in much s m aller am ounts other odd oxides of nitrogen. These particles have a slightly greater impact on visib ility than do sulf ate pa rtic les and are four to eight tim es more effective at scattering light than m i neral dust pa rticles. These com p ounds can scatter the

transm ission of light, cont ributing to visibility redu ction on a regional scale.

Point sources in Nevada contri bute 3 7 percen t of the to tal NO x em issions from the Plan02d inventory and are projected to c ontribute 50 percent of the overall inventory for PRP18a. This net increase of 13 percent in poi nt emissions does not incorpor ate any projected decrease in

em issions due to installation of Ne vada BART controls. Overall, NO x e m issions in Nevada are expected to declin e by 1 7 percen t, prim arily due to significant reductions in em issions from mobile sources (from 45 percen t in 2002 decreasing to 27 percen t in 2018) prim arily due to new federal vehicle em ission standards. This equates to a 36,423 ton decrease in NO x em i ssions from mobile sources. The 29 percen t in crease in area sources is largely due to forecasted increas es in activity levels based on populati on growth. Figure 3-12 and Ta ble 3-8 show the breakdown of NO x e m issions by source category for 2002 and 2018.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-18FIGURE 3-12

NEVADA NO x EMISSION INVE NTORY – 2 002 AND 2 018

TABLE 3-8

NEVADA NO x EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY FOR 2002 AND 2018

Nevada Planning and Baseline E m ission Inventories Statew ide NO x Plan 02d PRP 18a Source Category ( t p y ) ( t p y ) Net Change

Point 59,873 67,632 13% Area 5,728 7,418 29% On-Road Mobile 41,089 15,049 -63% Off-Road Mobile 32,565 22,182 -32% Oil and Gas 63 63 1%

Road Dust 1 2 53% Fugitive Du st 5 8 54% W i ndblown Dust N D N D N D Anthro Fire 48 41 -16% Natural F i re 8,085 8,085 0% Biogenic 15,018 15,018 0% Total: 162,475 135,496 -17%

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-19Figure 3-13 provides the Pla n02d and PRP18a regional NO x em ission m a ps with the location of the JARB1 IMPROVE monitor identified with a green star surrounded by 100 km and 200 km radius concentric circles.

FIGURE 3-13

REGIONAL MAP OF NO x EMISSIONS FOR 2 002 AND 2 018 2002

2018

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-20In Figure 3-14, note that for both 2002 and 2018, NO x e m issions in Nevada are prim arily in the 10-1,000 tons per year range, except for the urban and industrial centers in W a shoe and Clark counties.

Figure 3-14 shows NO x em issions by county and contribut ion by source category. Clark, Hum boldt, Lyon and Storey counties are dom inat ed by point source em issions for 2002 as well as 2018 due to projected EGUs. Not e the increa se in point source em issions for W h ite Pine County for 2018 due to proposed power plant(s). On-road mobile source s are the second m o st dom i nant contributor to NO x e m issions for Clark and W a shoe counties for 2002, but with significant reductions by 2018, prim arily due to th e new federal vehicle em ission standards.

FIGURE 3-14

NITROGEN OXIDE EM ISSIONS BY COUNT Y (Plan02d) AND (PRP18a)

3.8.3 Nevada VOC Emission Inventory for 2002 and 2018

VOCs are em itted as ga ses f r om certain so lids o rliqu i ds. VOCs are em itted by a wide arr a y of products numbering in the thousands. Exam ples include paints and lacquers, paint strippers, clean ing sup p lies, p e sticides, build in g m a teria l s and furnishings, office equipm ent such as copiers and printers, correction fluids and carbonless copy paper, craft m a terials including glues and adhesives, perm anent m a rk ers and photographic solutions ( http://www.epa.gov/iedweb00/voc.htm l ). Automobiles, ind u strial and comm ercial facilities, and refueling of autom o biles a ll contribute to VOC loading in the atm o sphere. Substantial natural em issions of VOCs com e from vegetation; these em issions are categorized as biogenics. VOCs can directly im pa ct vis i bility as em issions condense in the atm o sphere to form an aeroso l. Of more significance is the role VOCs play in the photochem i cal production of ozone in the troposphere. VOCs react with nitrog en oxides to produce nitrated org a nic particles that im pact

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-21visibility in the sam e series of chem ical even ts that lead to oz one. Thus, strategies to reduce ozone in the atm o s p h e r e o f t e n l e a d t o v i s i b i l i t y im provem e nts. VOCs in Nevada are expected to

c r e a s e s l i g h t l y ( 0

. 0 7 p e r c e n t ) b y 2 0 1 8

.

2 t o

n

, o u n t f o r o n l y 0

. 2 5 p e r c e n t of the 2002 and 0.4 perc ent of the 2018 VOC

m ission inventory.

FIGURE 3-15

NEVADA VOC EMISSION I NVE NTORY – 2 002 AND 2 018 i n

Figure 3-15 and Table 3-9 show the overall net ze ro percent change in em issions from 2 0 0 2018 for VOCs. Biogenic sources, prim arily fr om terpenes, dom i nate VOC em issions at approxim a tely 90 percent for both 2002 and 2018. Ar ea source em i s s i o n s s h o w a n e t i n c r e a s e i

em issions, but area sources account for only 3.2 percent and 5.9 per cent of the 2002 and 2018 VOC e m ission inventory respectively. Point VOC e m i s s i o n s s h o w a n e t c h a n g e o f 7 5 p e r c e n t b u t p o i n t s o u r c e s a c c

e

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-22NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-23 TABLE 3-9

NEVADA VOC EMISSIONS BY S OURCE CATEGORY FOR 2002 AND 2018

Nevada Planning and Baseline Emission Inventories Statewide VOC Plan 02d PRP 18a Source Category (tpy) (tpy) Net Change

Point 2,215 3,866 75% Area 28,592 53,014 85% On-Road Mobile 36,257 17,085 -53% Off-Road Mobile 18,094 11,784 -35% Oil and Gas 129 163 26%

Road Dust ND ND ND Fugitive Dust ND ND ND Windblown Dust ND ND ND Anthro Fire 70 50 -28% Natural Fire 17,606 17,606 0% Biogenic 794,139 794,139 0% Total: 897,102 897,707 0%

There were no regional emission maps for VOCs created in the TSS.

Figure 3-16 shows VOC emissions by county. Bi ogenic sources dominate the VOC emissions for all counties in Nevada. Clark and Was hoe counties show decrea ses to mobile source emissions and increases in area source emissions. Biogenic and natural fire emissions were held constant for the 2018 projections.FIGURE 3-16

VOLATILE ORGANIC CARBON E M ISSIONS BY COUNT Y (Plan02d) AND (PRP18a)

3.8.4 Nevada POA Emission Inventory for 2002 and 2018

Prim ary organic aerosol (POA) includes organi c molecules or com pound s that are directly

em itted from the com b ustion of org a nic m a terial. These org a nic com pounds includ e organic carbon (OC), hydrogen, oxygen as well as other orga nic atom s. Wide varieties of sources contribute to this classificati on, and include: combustion byproduc ts from wood and agricultural burning, diesel em issions, and th e cooking of m eat. Natural fire em issions however dom i nate this classification for Nevada, contributing to m o re than 90 p e rcen t of the tota l sta t ewide

em issions. Note that natural fire em issions we re held constant for 2018 projections. Road dust and f ugitive dust also sh ow increas e s in POA em issions, but the p r ojec ted em issions f o r these two source categories is only 2 percent of the tota l. Area sources, on-road m obile, road dust and f ugitive dus t incre a ses a r e m i nim a l and are likely due to grow th projection s . POAs are projec ted to have a sm all increase of 88 pounds of e m issions by 2018.

Figure 3-17 and Table 3-10 show an overall negligible incre a s e in to tal PO A em issions f r om 2002 to 2018.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-24FIGURE 3-17

NEVADA P OA EMISSION INVE NTORY – 20 02 AND 20 18

TABLE 3-1 0

NEVADA POA EMISSIONS BY S OURCE CATEGORY FOR 2002 AND 2018

Nevada Planning and Baseline E m ission Inventories Statew ide POA Plan 02d PRP 18a Source Category ( t p y ) ( t p y ) Net Change

Point 256 168 -34.2% Area 687 776 13.0% On-Road Mobile 314 422 34.4% Off-Road Mobile 572 393 -31.3% Oil and Gas 0 0 0.0%

Road Dust 91 139 53.2% Fugitive Du st 241 370 53.6% W i ndblown Dust N D N D N D Anthro Fire 73 52 -28.2% Natural F i re 22,501 22,501 0.0% Biogenic N D N D N D Total: 24,734 24,822 0.4%

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-25Figure 3-18, provides the Plan02d and PRP18a regional PO A e m issi on m a ps with the location of the JARB1 IMPROVE monitor identified with a green star surrounded by 100 km and 200 km radius concentric circles.

FIGURE 3-18

REGIONAL MAPS OF POA EMISSIONS FOR 2002 AND 2018 2002

2018

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-26 In Figure 3-18, note that there are significant de creases in P OA e m issions for Nevada. Largeportions of Nevada show less than one ton per year of POA em issions for 2002, and even fewer cell with emissions less than 10 tons per year for 2018. Even though the P OA net change is zero for Nevada, controls im plem ented in other st ates are reflected in Nevada’s projections.

Figure 3-19 shows that L i ncoln, Churchill, Cl ark, and Douglas counties were dom inated by natural fire events in 2002, and since those proj ections were held constant, those sam e counties show identical em issions in 2018.

FIGURE 3-19

PRIMARY ORGANIC AEROSOL EMISSIONS BY COUNTY (Plan02d) AND (PRP18a)

3.8.5 Nevada EC Emission In ventory for 2002 and 2018

Elem ental carbon (EC) particulates are directly em itted as a prim ary aerosol. For ex am ple, sources of elem ental carbon include fossil fuel co m bustion (vehicles, boilers and other industrial processes), wildfires and all othe r types of burning. EC particulat es absorb the transm ission of light that contributes to visibili ty reduction on a regional scale at Class I areas. Elem e n tal carbon is carbon black, or soot, a byproduct of incom p lete com bustion. It is the partner to prim ary organic aerosols and represents the more co m p lete com bustion of fuel, producing carbon particulate m a tter as the end product. By co m p arison, a carbon particle has a sixteen tim es greater im pact on visibility than a co arse particle of granite has.

Figure 3-20 and Table 3-11 show statewide EC em ission reductions of 12 percent. There are signif i can t r e duction s in the m obile source ca te gories resulting from new federal em ission standards for m obile sources, especially for diesel engines. N a tural fire em issions dom inate this classification for Nevada, contributing to 83 percent of the total s t atewid e em issions.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-27FIGURE 3-20

NEVADA E C EMISSION INVENT ORY – 2002 AND 2018

TABLE 3-1 1

NEVADA EC EMISSIONS BY SO URCE CATEGORY FOR 2002 AND 2018

Nevada Planning and Baseline E m ission Inventories Statew ide EC Plan 02d PRP 18a Source Category ( t p y ) ( t p y ) Net Change

Point 13 13 -4% Area 96 115 20% On-Road Mobile 235 121 -48% Off-Road Mobile 1,354 668 -51% Oil and Gas 0 0 0%

Road Dust 7 1 1 53% Fugitive Du st 17 26 54% W i ndblown Dust N D N D N D Anthro Fire 13 10 -23% Natural F i re 4,674 4,674 0% Biogenic N D N D N D Total: 6,409 5,638 -12%

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-28Figure 3-21 provides the Plan02d an d PRP18a regional elemental car bon em ission maps with the location of the JARB1 IMPROVE monitor iden tified with a green star surrounded by 100 km and 200 km radius concentric circles. Note th at E C is the sam e as PEC (prim a ry elem e n tal carbon).

FIGURE 3-21

REGIONAL MAPS OF EC EMISSIONS FOR 2 002 AND 2 018 2002

2018

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-29In Figure 3-21, note the decrease in em issions for Nevada. Overal l the E C e m issions for Nevada

are am ong the lowest in the U.S. 2018 projections show m o st of the state with EC em issions at less than 10 tons per year. Figure 3-22 shows that natu ral f i r e is th e dominant sou r ce catego r y for EC primarily for Lin c oln, Churchill, Clark and Douglas counties. Significant off-road m obile source reductions for 2018 are seen for Clark and Washoe counties.

FIGURE 3-22

ELEMENT A L CARBON EMISSIONS BY COUNTY (Pla n02d) AND (PRP18a)

3.8.6 Nevada PM Fine Emission Inventory for 2002 and 2018

PM fine em i ssions are comprised of fine particul ates under 2.5 m i crons that are generated m o stly f r om area so urces, ro ad dust and f ugitiv e dust. P M f i ne em issions ar e la r g ely re lated to agricultural and m i ning ac tivities, windblown dust from cons tr uction areas, and em issions from unpaved and paved roads. A particle of fine dust has a relative im pact on visibility one-tenth as great as a particle of elem ental carbon. For a ny given visibility event where poor visual air quality is p r esent in a sc ene, the im pact of dust can vary widely. Overall, on the 20 percent worst days, PM fine has about the sam e impact as nitrat e particles. Agricultural activities, dust from unpaved roads and construction are prevalent in th is source category and changes in em issions are tied to population and vehicle m i les traveled. Since PM fine em issions are not directly from the ta ilp ipe of the vehicle, the m obile source categories do not show any fine particulates

em issions; all veh i cle-related em issio n s from paved and unpaved roads sh ow up in the fugitive dust category. Fine particulate m a tter can rem a in suspended in the atm o sphere for long periods of tim e and travel long distances. F i ne particul ates can efficiently scatter the transm ission of light that co ntribu tes to visibility red u cti on on a regional scale at Class I areas. For 2018 projected em issions windblow n dust was held constant.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-30 In Figure 3-23 and Table 3-12, the projected stat ewide PM fine em ission net increase is 15percen t. Mo st of the anticipated inc r ease is a ssoc i ated with f ugitiv e dust f r o m 24 perce n t in th e Plan02d inventory to 30 percen t in the PRP18a inventory.

FIGURE 3-23

NEVADA SOIL (PM FINE) EMI SSION INVE NTORY – 2 002 AND 2 018

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-31NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-32 TABLE 3-12

NEVADA PM FINE EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY FOR 2002 AND 2018

Nevada Planning and Baseline Emission Inventories Statewide PM fine Plan 02d PRP 18a Source Category (tpy) (tpy) Net Change

Point 2,158 2,211 2% Area 830 1,150 39% On-Road Mobile 0 0 0% Off-Road Mobile 0 0 0% Oil and Gas 0 0 0%

Road Dust 1,091 1,672 53% Fugitive Dust 5,038 7,251 44% Windblown Dust 10,438 10,438 0% Anthro Fire 9 5 -48% Natural Fire 1,406 1,406 0% Biogenic ND ND ND Total: 20,969 24,134 15%

Figure 3-24, provides the Plan02d a nd PRP18a regional PM fine emission maps with the location of the JARB1 IMPROVE monitor identified with a green star surrounded by 100 km and 200 km radius concentric circles.FIGURE 3-24

REGIONAL MAPS OF PM FI NE E M ISSIONS FOR 2002 AND 2018 2002

2018

Figure 3-25 shows that Clark County has the gr eatest am ount of PM fine em issions on a statewide basis, dom inated by fugitiv e dust and p o int sources. Most of the counties in Nevada have significant windblown dust emissions.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-33FIGURE 3-25

PM FINE E M ISSIONS BY C OUNT Y (Plan02d) AND (PRP18a)

3.8.7 Nevada PM Coarse Emission Inven t ory for 2002 and 2018

PM coarse em issions are closely related to the sam e sources as PM fine em issions but other activities like rock crushing and processing, m a te rial transfer, open pit m i ning and unpaved road

em issions can be prom inent sources. PM coar se em issions travel s horter distan ces in the

atm o sphere than other sm aller particles but can rem a in in the atm o sphere sufficiently long enough to play a role in regional haze. PM coar se em issions have the sm allest direct impact on regional haze on a particle-by-particle basis wher e one particle of coarse m a ss has a relative visibility weight of 0.6 com p ared to a carbon particle having a wei ght of 10. Nevertheless, they

are comm only present at all m onitoring sites and are a g r eater contributor to reg i onal h a ze than the PM fine com ponent.

Figure 3-26 and Table 3-13 show the overall net increas e in P M coar se em issions of 17 percent. A substantia l inc r ease in PM coarse e m issions is s een in th e ro ad dust (53 percen t) and f ugitive dust (45 percent) categories. This is due to the f act that cons truction activities and em issions from paved and unpaved roads are linked to popul ation, vehicle m iles traveled and employm e nt data. Growth in these factors results in projected em ission increases from 2002 to 2018. Although PM coarse em issions from windblown dust decrease from 58 percent to 50 percent by 2018, windblown dust is still th e prim ary source ca tegory for these em issio n s. Fugitiv e dust is also projected to be a m a jor contributor to PM coarse em issions in 2018 at 36 percent.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-34FIGURE 3-26

NEVADA COARSE M A SS (PM COARSE) EMISSION INVENTORY – 2002 AND 2018

TABLE 3-1 3

NEVADA PM COARSE EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY FOR 2 002 AND 2 018

Nevada Planning and Baseline E m ission Inventories Statew ide PM coarse Plan 02d PRP 18a Source Category ( t p y ) ( t p y ) Net Change

Point 4,093 4,717 15% Area 897 1,012 13% On-Road Mobile 245 360 47% Off-Road Mobile 0 0 0% Oil and Gas 0 0 0%

Road Dust 9,413 14,439 53% Fugitive Du st 47,366 68,634 45% W i ndblown Dust 93,946 93,946 0% Anthro Fire 7 3 -48% Natural F i re 5,176 5,176 0% Biogenic N D N D N D Total: 161,142 188,287 17%

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-35Figure 3-27, provides the Plan02d and PRP18a regional PM coar se em ission m a ps wi th the location of the JARB1 IMPROVE monitor iden tified with a green star surrounded by 100 km and 200 km radius concentric circles.

FIGURE 3-27

REGIONAL MAPS OF PM COARS E EMISSIONS FOR 20 02 AND 20 18 2002

2018

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-36 Figure 3-28 shows that Clark Count y has the highest PM coarse em issions in Nevada, due tofugitive dus t sources. Windblown dust is a sign ifi cant source of PM coarse em issions for m o st counties.

FIGURE 3-28

PM COARSE EMISSIONS BY COUNTY (Pla n02d) AND (PRP18a)

3.8.8 Nevada NH 3 Emission Inventory for 2002 and 2018

NH 3 em issions com e f r om a variety of sources in cluding was t ewater trea tm ent f acilities, lives tock op erations, fertilizer app l ications and mobile sources. NH 3 is dir ectly linked to the production of a m m onium nitrate and ammonium su lfate particles in the atm o sphere when SO 2 and NO x eventually conv ert over to these fo rm s of particles. Increas es in NH 3 e m issions from the base case year to 2018 are linked to population statistics a nd increased vehicular traffic.

An EPA report “Estim ating Amm oni a Em issions from Anthropogenic Non-Agricultural Sources – Draft Final Report April 2004” ( http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/eiip/tec hreport/volum e03/eiip_areasourcesnh3.pdf ) docum ents that NH 3 m easurem ents vary substantially by vehicle cla ss in on-road m obile sources. Fleet-average NH 3 e m issions are thought to be increasing as ad vanced catalyst-equipped vehicles make up a larger fraction of the fleet. A dvanced catalysts have higher NH 3 e m ission rates stem m i ng from an over-reduction of NO x to NH 3

.

Non-road mobile sources includ e exhaust em issions from a wide range of non-road engines. These inclu d e constru c tion equipm ent, agricultu r al equ i pm ent, lawn and garden equ i pm ent, commercial and recreational m a rine vessels a nd locom o tives. Non-road gasoline engines typically are not equipped with catalysts.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-37Figure 3-29 and Table 3-14, show an overall net increase of NH 3 em issions of 20 percent. Point sources show a significant net increase of 155 per cent, although the percent of the projected total point NH 3 em issions for PRP18a is not significant (six percent). On-road m obile NH 3 em issions are due to projected increas es in v e h i c u l a r t r a f f i c

FIGURE 3-29

NEVADA NH .

3 EMISSION INVE NTORY – 2 002 AND 2 018

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-38NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-39 TABLE 3-14

NEVADA NH 3 EMISSIONS BY SOURCE CATEGORY FOR 2002 AND 2018

Nevada Planning and Baseline Emission Inventories Statewide NH3 Plan 02d PRP 18a Source Category (tpy) (tpy) Net Change

Point 339 864 155% Area 8,009 8,535 7% On-Road Mobile 2,030 3,385 67% Off-Road Mobile 22 30 37% Oil and Gas 0 0 0%

Road Dust ND ND 0% Fugitive Dust ND ND 0% Windblown Dust ND ND 0% Anthro Fire 8 5 -37% Natural Fire 1,684 1,684 0% Biogenic ND ND ND Total: 12,092 14,503 20%

There are no regional emission maps for ammonia.

Figure 3-30 shows consistently that Clark County has the grea test emissions on a county by county breakdown. Clark County’s emissions are dominated by on-ro ad and area sources. Most of the other Nevada counties are dominated by area sources.FIGURE 3-30

AMMONIA EMISSIONS BY COUNTY (Plan02d) AND (PRP18a)

3.9 SUMMARY OF 2018 EMISSION PROJECTIONS

Analysis of the IMPROVE m onitoring network data dem onstrates the following pollutants, ranked according to percent cont ribution to annual extinction (see Table 2-2 in Chapter Two), contribute to reconstructed light extinction at JA RB1 for the 20 percent worst days of the baseline period.

• OMC • EC

• CM • NO 3

• SO 4 • Sea Salt

• SOIL

The em issions analysis is part of the technical basis for identifying Nevada’s reasonable progress goal. At the beginning of this section, Table 3-6 summ arizes the contribution from natural vs. anthropogen i c sources for each po llutant in 2002 and 2018. It shows that approxim a tely three quarters (73 percent) of em issions in 2018 are expected to be from natural sources and, therefore, uncontrollable. Table 3-15 shows percent c ontribution from a n th ropogenic sources and dom i nant so urce categories for each pollutant in 2018. The “Total Em issions from All Source Categories” colum n includes natural em issions a nd puts the contribution f r om each pollutant into perspective with respect to other visi bility im pair ing pollu tants in Nevada.

NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE S T ATE IMP LEMENTATI ON PLAN, October 2009 3-40NEVADA REGIONAL HAZE STATE IMP LEMENTATION PLAN, October 2009 3-41 TABLE 3-15

PREDOMINANT SOURCES OF POLLUTANTS: 2018

Pollutant Total Emissions from All Source Categories in tpy (percent of total) Percent from Anthropogenic Sources Predominant Source and Percent from Predominant Source Controllable

VOC 897,707 (67) 10 Biogenic 88 No Windblown Dust 50 No PM

coarse 188,287 (14) 47 Fugitive Dust 36 Yes

Point 50 Yes Off-Road Mobile 16 Yes On-Road Mobile 11 Yes NO x 135,496 (10) 83

Biogenic 11 No

Point 61 Yes SO x 46,224 (3.5) 94 Area 31 Yes

POA 24,822 (2) 9 Natural Fire 91 No Windblown Dust 43 No PM fine 24,134 (2) 51 Fugitive Dust 30 Yes

Area 59 Yes NH 3 14,503 (1) 88 On-Road Mobile 23 Yes

EC 5,638 (0.5) 17 Natural Fire 83 No

In Nevada, anthropogenic sources are important contributors of SO x , NO x, and NH 3 in 2018. SO x emissions are predominantly from point s ources, 61 percent; area sources contribute 31 percent. NO x emissions are also predominantly from point sources, approximately 50 percent, while mobile sources account for another 27 per cent. VOC, POA, EC, PM fine and PM coarse emissions are dominated by natural source catego ries, and primarily are not controllable for those sources. NH 3 emissions are predominantly from ar ea sources, 59 percent, with another 23 percent from on-road mobile. The total project ed emissions for all pollutants in 2018 are 1,336,811 tons and of that total, on ly 27 percent are controllable

.