# CHAPTER 3 BASE YEAR AND FUTURE EMISSIONS

Introduction Emission Inventories Base Year Emissions Future Emissions Top Ten Source Categories (2002, 2014, 2023)

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-1 

## INTRODUCTION
This chapter summarizes emissions that occu rred in the Basin duri ng the base year 2002, and projected emissions in the years 2014, 2020, and 2023. More detailed emission data analyses are presented in Appendix III of the Final 2007 AQMP. Additional emission inventories for other interim years (i .e., 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2017, and 2030) are also developed. These invent ory years are selected to co mply with federal and state Clean Air Act requirements. The 2002 base year emissions inventory reflects adopted air regulations with current compliance da tes as of 2002; whereas future baseline emissions inventories are based on adopted ai r regulations with both current and future compliance dates. A list of AQMD and CARB ru les and regulations that are part of the base year and future-year baseline emissions inventories is presen ted in Appendix III of the Final 2007 AQMP. The District is comm itted to implement the AQMD rules that are incorporated in the Final 2007 AQMP baseline emissions inventories.
The emissions inventory is divi ded into four major classifications: point, area, off-road, and on-road sources. The 2002 base year point source emissions are based principally on reported data from facilities. The area s ource and off-road emissions are estimated jointly by CARB and the District. The on-ro ad emissions are calculated using the CARB EMFAC2007 V2.3 emission factors and th e transportation activity data provided by SCAG from their modified 2004 Regional Tran sportation Plan (2004 RTP). In this document Outer Continental Sh elf (OCS) emissions (i.e. ships beyond the three-mile state waters line) are included in the ships emissions. The future emission forecasts are based on demographic and ec onomic growth projections provided by the Southern California Association of Governments (S CAG). In addition, emission reductions resulting from District regulations adopted by June 30, 2006 are included in the emission forecasts. CARB regulations adopted by June 2005 were included in the baseline.
Several additional adjustments were made to EMFAC2007 V2.3 to make additional technical corrections to the inventory. The most significant adjustment was the application of a factor (0.78) to the 2005 heavy heavy-duty diesel truck emissions to correct the population estimates previously assu med in the inventory. Other adjustments were made to on-road categories in orde r to account for CARB’s adopted rules which are not included in EMFAC2007 V2.3. Cate gories affected by this change included light-duty passenger cars, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks, buses, and motor homes.
Off-road emissions were upda ted using CARB’s November 1, 2006 OFFROAD model. External adjustments were also made for inventory categorie s such as ships, dredging, industrial equipment, lawn a nd garden equipment, and othe rs. Adjustments were made after the model was finalized to reflect info rmation revising activity levels and patterns, and to include Carl Moyer benefits and CA RB’s adopted rules which are not included in the OFFRAD model.

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-2 This chapter also includes information on the top ten source categorie s that contribute to the majority of the emissions inventory in 2002, 2014, and 2023. Th e data for the year 2023 is being presented because the South Co ast will need to reque st a “bump up” in attainment classification. Da ta for 2020 is included in porti ons of this Chapter and in Appendix III. Please see Chapter 12 for more information on the attainment status.



## EMISSION INVENTORIES
Three inventories are prepared for the Final 2007 AQMP for the purpose of regulatory and SIP performance tracking and transportation conformity: an annual average inventory, a summer planning inventory, and a winter pl anning inventory. Baseline emissions data presented in this chapter ar e based on average annual day emissions (i.e., total annual emissions divide d by 365 days) and se asonally adjusted planning inventory emissions. The Final 2007 AQMP uses annual average day emissions to estimate the cost-effectiveness of control measures, to rank control measure implementation, and to perform PM2.5 modeling and analysis. The planning inventory emi ssions developed to capture the emission levels during a poor air quality season are used to report emission reduction progress as required by the fe deral and state Clean Air Acts.
Detailed descriptions of the base year a nd future baseline emission inventories are presented in Appendix III of the Final 2007 AQMP.
Attachment F to Appendix III shows emissions a ssociated with combustion of diesel fuel for various source categories.



## Stationary Sources
Stationary sources can be divi ded into two major subcategor ies: point and area sources. Point sources are generally large emitters with one or more emission sources at a permitted facility with an id entified location (e.g., power plants, refineries). Area sources generally consist of many small emission sources (e.g., residential water heaters, architectural coatings) which are distributed across the region. Their emissions over a given area may be calculated using socioec onomic data. For 2002, reported data are used for point sources emitting more than 4 tons per year of the following criteria air contaminants: VOC, NOx, SOx, and PM2.5. For CO, facilities report if they are over 100 tons per year. If any of th ese thresholds are triggered, all pollutants are reported by the facility.
Area source emissions were jointly de veloped by CARB and the District for approximately 350 categories. Several specia l studies were conducted to improve the area source inventory. Specific source categor ies such as gasoline dispensing, consumer products, architectural coatings, fugitive dus t, and ammonia sources were updated (see Appendix III). For consumer products and ar chitectural coatings , revised and updated

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-3 survey data were used. For fugitive dust, the PM10 to PM2.5 ra tio was changed based on a study by the Western Regiona l Air Partnership (WRAP).



## Mobile Sources
Mobile sources consist of two subcategorie s: on-road and off-road sources. On-road vehicle emissions are calculated using soci oeconomic data and tr ansportation models provided by SCAG, spatial distri bution data from Caltrans’ Direct Travel Impact Model (DTIM4), and EMFAC2007 V2.3 inventorie s obtained from CARB. The EMFAC2007 V2.3 reflects SCAG’s revised baseline activity data from the modified 2004 RTP. The 2000 Census data, combined with SCAG’s 2001 or igin and destination survey data, are used in SCAG’s modified 2004 RTP and in th is AQMP. Major improvements made to the EMFAC2007 V2.3 include:
1. Heavy heavy-duty diesel vehi cles population redistribution;
2. Vehicle miles traveled updates;
3. Heavy heavy-duty diesel factors updates;
4. Pending vehicles updates;
5. Fuel correcting factors updates;
6. Ethanol permeation effects;
7. New population data; and
8. New temperature and relative humidity profiles corresponding to the federal 8- hour ozone standard.
Figure 3-1A compares the on-road base line emissions between EMFAC2002 and the EMFAC2007 V2.3 used in the 2003 AQMP a nd Final 2007 AQMP, respectively. It should be noted that the comparison for 2002 reflects changes in methodology, but 2020 also includes adopted rules, and updated growth projecti ons since the release of EMFAC2002.
Emissions from off-road vehicle categories (e.g ., trains, ships, construction equipment, ports and rail cargo handling equipment) were developed primarily based on estimated activity levels and emission f actors. The major changes made to the off-road model include:

1. Off-road equipment population, activ ity, and emission factor updates;

2. Locomotive inventory reflecting the 1998 South Coast Locomotive MOU and the 2005 CARB/Railroad MOU;

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-4 3. Cargo handling equipment updates;

4. Portable fuel containers updates;

5. Marine vessel updates; and

6. Commercial harbor craft updates.
The inventory for trains was revised from the 2003 AQMP to reflect projected emission reductions based on the 1998 South Coast MOU and the 2005 CARB/Railroad MOU. Significant inventory improveme nts have been made to the marine vessel category, which includes ocean-going vessels, commercial ha rbor craft, and other ships. For both the Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach, more recent and comprehensive emission inventories and proj ections have been included in the Final 2007 AQMP. New surveys and data sources for marine vessels have been used, as described in Appendix III.
Figure 3-1B shows a comparison of the off-road baseline emissions based on the OFFROAD model revisions used for the 2003 AQMP and Final 2007 AQMP. As the inventory methodology has improved, more emissions have been quantified, resulting in equal or higher emissions than previously anticipated in spite of more rules being adopted. This creates a greater challenge for attainment.



## Uncertainty in the Inventory
An effective AQMP relies on an adequate emission inventory. Over the years, significant improvements have been made to quantify emissi on sources upon which control measures are developed. Increa sed use of continuous monitoring and source tests has contributed to the improvement in point source inventories. Technical assistance to facilities and auditing of repor ted emissions by the District also have improved the accuracy of the emissions invent ory. Area source inve ntories that rely on average emission factors and regional activitie s have inherent uncertainty. Industryspecific surveys or source-specific studies during rule developmen t have provided muchneeded refinement to the emissions estimates.
Mobile source inventories remain the great est challenge due to the high number and types of equipment and engi nes involved, in-use performance variables, and complex emission characteristics. Every AQMP revi sion provides an opportunity to further improve the current knowledge of mobile source inventories. There is no exception to the Final 2007 AQMP. As de scribed earlier, many improvements were made to the EMFAC2007 V2.3 and such work is still ongoing. However, it s hould be acknowledged that there are still areas that may not have been adequately addre ssed. For example, ethanol permeation not accounted for in the stationary source inventory for gasolinepowered equipment or gas stations, how best to reflect heavy heavy-duty truck in-use emissions with limited test data, and appropr iate spatial and temporal distribution of

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-5 recreational boats need to be examined furt her. The best available science should be followed to support the AQMP development.
Relative to future growth, there are many ch allenges with making accurate projections. For example, where vehicle trips will occur, the distribution between various modes of transportation (such as trucks and trains), as well as estim ates for population growth and changes to the number and type of jobs – although they are forecast with the best information available; nevertheless, they c ontribute to the overall uncertainty in emission projections.



## Gridded Emissions
For air quality modeling purposes, the region is composed of the South Coast Air Basin, Coachella Valley, Antelope Valley, Ventura County (upwind area), and Mojave Desert. The modeling area is divided in to a grid system composed of 5 km by 5 km grid cells defined by Universal Transverse Mercator (U TM) coordinates. Both stationary and mobile source emissions are allocated to indi vidual grid cells within this system. In general, the modeling emission data feat ures episodic-day emissions. Seasonal variations in activity levels are taken into account in developing gri dded stationary point and area source emissions. Variations in temperature, hours of operation, speed of motor vehicles, or other factors are consid ered in developing gridded motor vehicle emissions. Hence, “gridded” emissions da ta used for ozone modeling applications (Chapter 5) differ from the average annual da y or planning inventor y emission data in two respects: 1) the modeling region covers larger geographi c areas than the Basin; and 2) emissions represent day-specific instead of average or seasonal conditions. In the Final 2007 AQMP, gridded invent ories associated with selected ozone episodes have been prepared for air quality modeling analys es. In addition, gr idded emissions for 2005 and 2014 were developed to calculate annual average PM2.5 concentrations.

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-6 FIGURE 3-1A Comparison of On-Road Emissions Between EMFAC2002 (2003 AQMP) and EMFAC2007 V2.3 (Final 2007 AQMP) (VOC & NOx – Summer Planning; SOx & PM2.5 – Annual Average Inventory)

* Year 2020 inventories incorporate rules adopted since the release of EMFAC2002. ** Redistribution of the heavy-duty truck VMT in the EMFAC2007 V2.3 causes heavy duty truck VMT reduction in the SCAB. As a result, NOx and SOx emissions are relatively lower in the Final 2007 AQMP than in the 2003 AQMP. Note: External adjustments to the EMFA2007 V2.3 are included. 

### 2003 AQMP 2007 AQMP * 117 337

114 360

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2002 2020 

### VOCTons/Day

187 645

184 611 

### **

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

2002 2020 

### NOxTons/Day

13 13 16 18

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

2002 2020 

### PM2.5Tons/Day

2 5

2 4 

### **

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2002 2020 

### SOxTons/Day

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-7 FIGURE 3-1B Comparison of Off-Road Emissions Between 2003 AQMP and Final 2007 AQMP (VOC & NOx – Summer Planning; SOx & PM2.5 – Annual Average Inventory)


## * Year 2020 inventories incorporate rules adopted since the release of EMFAC2002 2003 AQMP 2007 AQMP * 125 222

146 219

0 50 100 150 200 250

2002 2020 

### VOCTons/Day

54

33 32 27

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

2002 2020 

### SOxTons/Day 16 19

15 21

0 5 10 15 20 25

2002 2020 

### PM2.5Tons/Day 250 323
271 378

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

2002 2020 

### NOxTons/Day

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-8 

## BASE YEAR EMISSIONS

2002 Emission Inventory

Tables 3-1A and 3-1B shows the 2002 emissi ons inventory by major source category. Table 3-1A shows annual average emissions , while Table 3-1B shows the planning inventories for summer and winter.
Overall, total mobile source emissions account for 64 percent of the VOC and 91 percent of the NOx emissions for these two ozone-forming pollutants, based on the annual average inventory. The on-road mob ile category alone cont ributes about 43 and 57 percent of the VOC and NOx emissions, re spectively, and approximately 76 percent of the CO for the annual average inventory.
Figure 3-2 characterizes relative contribu tions by stationary and mobile source categories. Stationary sour ces are subdivided into point (e.g., chemical manufacturing, petroleum production, and electric utilities) a nd area sources (e.g., architectural coatings, residential water heaters, and consumer pr oducts). Mobile sources consist of on-road (e.g., light-duty passenger cars) and off-road sources (e.g., trains and ships). Entrained road dust is also included in Figure 3-2.

On- and off-road sources continue to be the major contributors for each of the 5 pollutants, as seen in Figure 3-2. For example, mobile sources represent 64 percent of VOC emissions, 92 percent of NOx emissions , and 98 percent of CO emissions. For directly emitted PM2.5, mob ile sources represent 39 percent of the emissions with another 20 percent due to vehicl e-related entrained road dust.
Within the category of stationary sources, point sources contribut e more SOx emissions than area sources. Area sources play a majo r role in VOC emissions, emitting about five times more than point sources. Area sources are the predominant source (32 percent) of directly emitted PM2.5 emissions, in cluding sources such as cooking.

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-9 TABLE 3-1A Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2002 Base Year Average Annual Day (tons/day 1 

### )
Source Category VOC NOx CO SOx PM2.5 Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 

### 7 35 52 2 6 Waste Disposal 

### 7 2 1 0 0 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 

### 54 0 0 0 1 Petroleum Production and Marketing 

### 35 0 9 7 1 Industrial Processes 

### 21 0 2 0 5 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 

### 110 0 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 

### 49 0 0 0 0 Others 

### 3 0 0 0 0 Misc. Processes * 

### 16 27 62 0 47 RECLAIM Sources 

### 0 29 0 12 0 Total Stationary Sources 302 93 126 22 60 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 

### 362 628 3677 4 18 Off-Road Vehicles 

### 180 372 1016 27 21 Total Mobile Sources 542 1000 4693 31 39
TOTAL 844 1093 4819 53 99 

## TABLE 3-1B Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2002 Base Year Planning Inventory** (tons/day 1 

### )

SUMMER OZONE PRECURSORS WINTER INVENTORY 

### Source Category VOC NOx NOx CO Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 7 36 35 54 Waste Disposal 8 2 2 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 60 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 35 1 1 9 Industrial Processes 22 0 0 2 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 110 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 57 0 0 0 Others 4 0 0 0 Misc. Processes 14 21 33 102 RECLAIM SOURCES 0 29 29 0 

### Total Stationary Sources 317 89 100 168 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 

### 360 611 680 3630 Off-Road Vehicles 220 378 367 844 

### Total Mobile Sources 580 989 1047 4474
TOTAL 897 1078 1147 4642 * Travel-related road dust included. **Planning inventories are not used for PM2.5 analysis. 1 Values are rounded to nearest integer.

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-10 VOC Emissions: 897 Tons/Day 30% 6%

40% 24%



## FIGURE 3-2 Relative Contribution by Source Category to 2002 Emission Inventory (VOC & NOx – Summer Planning; CO, SOx & PM2.5 – Annual Average Inventory) NOx Emissions: 1,079 Tons/Day 4%

4% 57% 35%

CO Emissions: 4,819 Tons/Day 1% 1% 77% 21%

SOx Emissions: 53 Tons/Day 3% 38%

8% 51%

Directly Emitted PM2.5 Emissions: 99 Tons/Day 20% 32% 9%

18% 21%



### Area On-Road Off-Road Entrained Road Dust Point Note: Consumer products and architectural coatings under the area source category represent 110 and 57 tons per day of VOC emissions, respectively.

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-11 In the mobile source category, emissions fro m on-road vehicles are much higher than those from off-road sources for all criteria pollutants except SOx and PM2.5. This can be explained by the fact that the sulfur cont ent in fuels used for off-road vehicles is relatively higher than those for on-road vehicles, and commercial/industrial off-road equipment generates high levels of PM2.5.



## FUTURE EMISSIONS

Data Development
The milestone years 2002, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023, and 2030 are the target years for emissions rate-of-p rogress estimates under the federal Clean Air Act and the state Clean Air Act. Future emissions are divided into RECLAIM and nonRECLAIM emissions. Future NOx and SO x emissions from RECLAIM sources are estimated based on their allocations as specified by AQMD Rule 2002 –Allocations for NOx and SOx. The forecasts for non-RECL AIM emissions were derived using: 1) emissions from the 2002 base year; 2) expected controls after implementation of District rules adopted by June 30, 2006, and most CA RB rules adopted as of June 2005; and 3) emissions growth in various source categories between the base and future years. AQMD rules adopted after June 30, 2006 ar e treated as baseline adjustments for emissions reduction accounting purposes. From efforts currently underway for amending Rule 1110.2, staff has estimated additional emissions of 1.26 tons per day of NOx; 42.07 tons per day of CO; and 7.39 tons per day of VOC in 2005 due to unanticipated non compliance. These emissions are expected to be totally controlled by year 2008 if the proposed rule amendment, which is scheduled to be brought to the Governing Board this year, is adopted. Theref ore, these emissions we re not added to the 2007 AQMP inventories.
Demographic growth forecasts for various socioeconomic categories (e.g., population, housing, employment by indus try), developed by SCAG for their interim 2007 RTP, were used in the modified 2004 RTP to estimate future emissions. Industry growth factors for 2002, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 we re provided by SCAG. Growth factors for other interim years were interpolated between key forecast years. Table 3-2 summarizes key socioeconomic pa rameters used in the Final 2007 AQMP for emissions inventory development.

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-12 TABLE 3-2 Baseline Demographic Forecasts in the Final 2007 AQMP

Category 2002 2020 (% Growth) 2030 (% Growth) Population (Millions) 15.1 18.4 22% 19.6 30%

Housing Units (Millions) 4.8 5.9 23% 6.4 33%

Total Employment (Millions) 6.8 8.2 21% 9.0 32%

Daily VMT (Millions) 349 414 19% 453 30%

______________________________________________________________________________________ 

## Current forecasts indicate that this regi on will experience a popul ation growth of 22 percent by the year 2020 with a 19 percent incr ease in vehicle miles traveled (VMT).
As compared to the projection from the 2003 AQMP, the current projection for the year 2020 shows about a 200,000 (1%) increase in population, 300,000 (3.5%) decrease in total employment and 40.7 million mile ( 9%) decrease in th e daily VMT forecast. The decrease in VMT forecast is primarily due to the redistribution of VMT to the eastern portion of the region outside of the SCAB.
CARB staff revised assumptions related to pending vehicle registra tions, which affects emissions as well. EMFAC2007 includes an assumption that 25 percent of these vehicles are on the road, ra ther than the 100 percent estimate used in the EMFAC2007 Working Draft.
Comparing EMFAC2007 VMT to projections from SCAG shows a significant “blip” or increase in VMT between 2002 and 2005, although 2010 VMT decreases and projections for 2010 and beyond are very close between EMFAC2007 and SCAG estimates. The District staff retained two te chnical experts in the area of transportation analysis to review the VMT estimates fo r 2005. The consultants reviewed CARB’s assumptions and, to the extent possible, some of the DMV and BAR data used to produce the 2005 VMT estimates. They concluded that there is no independent evidence to support a decline in VMT between 2005 and 2010, and reco mmended conducting a sensitivity analysis in the n ear term, to determine the magnitude of the differences. Detailed discussions on the VMT sensitivity anal ysis is contained in Appendix-V of the Final 2007 AQMP. Based on the analysis, th e District staff recommends that for purposes of attainment de monstration VMT estimates provided by SCAG be used instead of EMFAC2007.

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-13 

## Summary of Baseline Emissions
Emission data by source categories (point, ar ea, on-road mobile and off-road mobile sources) and by pollutants are presented in Tables 3-3 th rough 3-5 for the years 2014, 2020, and 2023. The tables pr ovide annual average, and summer and winter planning inventories.
Without any additional controls, VOC, NOx, a nd CO emissions are expected to decrease due to existing regulations, such as controls on off-road equipment, new vehicle standards, and the RECLAIM program. Figure 3-3 illustrates the relative contribution to the 2023 inventory by source category. A comparison be tween Figures 3-2 and 3-3 indicates that the on-road mobile category con tinues to be a major contributor to CO and NOx emissions. However, due to the a dopted regulations, by 2023 on-road mobile accounts for about 19 percent of total VOC em issions compared to 40 percent in 2002. Meanwhile, area sources become the majo r contributor to VOC emissions from 30 percent in 2002 to 44 percent in 2023. Se e Figures 3-7 through 3-18 for the top ten ranking by source category for 2002, 2014, and 2020.

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-14 TABLE 3-3A Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2014 Base Year Average Annual Day (tons/day 1 ) 

### Source Category VOC NOx CO SOx PM2.5 Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 

### 7 24 51 3 6 Waste Disposal 

### 8 2 1 0 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 

### 41 0 0 0 1 Petroleum Production and Marketing 

### 32 0 8 1 1 Industrial Processes 

### 21 0 3 0 5 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 

### 107 0 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 

### 24 0 0 0 0 Others 

### 3 0 0 0 0 Misc. Processes* 

### 14 23 115 0 55 RECLAIM Sources 

### 0 27 0 12 0 Total Stationary Sources 257 76 178 16 69 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 

### 144 293 1393 2 17 Off-Road Vehicles 

### 127 285 1006 25 16 Total Mobile Sources 271 578 2399 27 33 TOTAL 528 654 2577 43 102



## TABLE 3-3B Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2014 Base Year Planning Inventory** (tons/day 1 )
SUMMER OZONE PRECURSORS WINTER INVENTORY 

### Source Cate g or y VOC NOx NOx CO Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 

### 7 25 24 53 Waste Disposal 

### 8 2 2 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 

### 45 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 

### 33 0 0 8 Industrial Processes 

### 23 0 1 3 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 

### 107 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 

### 29 0 0 0 Others 

### 3 0 0 0 Misc. Processes 

### 9 17 32 220 RECLAIM Sources 

### 0 27 27 0 Total Stationary Sources 264 71 86 285 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 

### 148 287 312 1373 Off-Road Vehicles 

### 157 292 278 839 Total Mobile Sources 305 579 590 2212
TOTAL 569 650 676 2497 * Travel-related road dust included. **Planning inventories are not used for PM2.5 analysis. 1 Values are rounded to nearest integer.

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-15 TABLE 3-4A Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2020 Base Year Average Annual Day (tons/day 1 ) 

### Source Category VOC NOx CO SOx PM2.5 Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 

### 7 22 53 3 6 Waste Disposal 

### 8 2 1 0 0 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 

### 43 0 0 0 1 Petroleum Production and Marketing 

### 34 0 8 1 1 Industrial Processes 

### 23 1 3 0 6 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 

### 112 0 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 

### 26 0 0 0 0 Others 

### 3 0 0 0 0 Misc. Processes* 

### 14 22 119 0 58 RECLAIM Sources 

### 0 27 0 12 0 Total Stationary Sources 270 74 184 16 72 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 

### 110 187 973 2 16 Off-Road Vehicles 

### 119 264 1071 32 15 Total Mobile Sources 229 451 2044 34 31 TOTAL 499 525 2228 50 108



## TABLE 3-4B Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2020 Base Year Planning Inventory** (tons/day 1 )
SUMMER OZONE PRECURSORS WINTER INVENTORY 

### Source Category VOC NOx NOx CO Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 

### 7 24 23 55 Waste Disposal 

### 8 2 2 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 

### 49 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 

### 34 0 0 8 Industrial Processes 

### 25 0 0 4 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 

### 112 0 0 0 Architectural Coatings 

### 30 0 0 0 Others 

### 3 0 0 0 Misc. Processes 

### 9 15 32 226 RECLAIM Sources 

### 0 27 27 0 Total Stationary Sources 277 68 84 294 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 

### 114 184 199 958 Off-Road Vehicles 

### 147 272 257 895 Total Mobile Sources 261 456 456 1853
TOTAL 538 524 540 2147 * Travel-related road dust included. **Planning inventories are not used for PM2.5 analysis. 1 Values are rounded to nearest integer.

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-16 TABLE 3-5A Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2023 Base Year Average Annual Day (tons/day 1 ) 

### Source Category VOC NOx CO SOx PM2.5 Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 

### 7 22 54 3 6 Waste Disposal 

### 9 2 1 0 0 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 

### 45 0 0 0 1 Petroleum Production and Marketing 

### 35 0 8 1 1 Industrial Processes 

### 24 0 3 0 6 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 

### 114 0 0 0 0 Architectural 

### 26 0 0 0 0 Others 

### 2 0 0 0 0 Misc. Processes* 

### 14 23 120 1 59 RECLAIM Sources 

### 0 27 0 12 0 Total Stationary Sources 276 74 186 17 73 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 

### 99 164 838 2 16 Off-Road Vehicles 

### 120 268 1119 36 16 Total Mobile Sources 219 432 1957 38 32 TOTAL 495 506 2143 55 105



## TABLE 3-5B Summary of Emissions By Major Source Category: 2023 Base Year Planning Inventory** (tons/day 1 )
SUMMER OZONE PRECURSORS WINTER INVENTORY 

### Source Category VOC NOx NOx CO Stationary Sources Fuel Combustion 

### 7 24 23 55 Waste Disposal 

### 9 2 2 1 Cleaning and Surface Coatings 

### 50 0 0 0 Petroleum Production and Marketing 

### 35 0 0 8 Industrial Processes 

### 26 0 1 4 Solvent Evaporation Consumer Products 

### 114 0 0 0 Architectural 

### 31 0 0 0 Others 

### 3 0 0 0 Misc. Processes 

### 9 16 32 229 RECLAIM Sources 

### 0 27 27 0 Total Stationary Sources 285 69 85 297 Mobile Sources On-Road Vehicles 

### 103 161 174 824 Off-Road Vehicles 

### 148 276 261 936 Total Mobile Sources 251 437 435 1760
TOTAL 536 506 520 2057 * Travel-related road dust included. **Planning inventories are not used for PM2.5 analysis. 1 Values are rounded to nearest integer.

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-17 FIGURE 3-3 Relative Contribution by Source Ca tegory to 2023 Emission Inventory (VOC & NOx – Summer Planning; CO, SOx & PM2.5 – Annual Average Inventory) VOC Emissions: 536 Tons/Day 44% 9%

19% 28%

NOx Emissions: 506 Tons/Day 6%

7%

32% 55%

CO Emissions: 2,143 Tons/Day 6%

3%

39% 52%

Directly Emitted PM2.5 Emissions: 105 Tons/Day 20% 41% 9%

15% 15%



### Area On-Road Off-Road Entrained Road Dust Point Note: Consumer products and architectural coatings under the area source category represent 114 and 31 tons per day of VOC emissions, respectively.

SOx Emissions: 55 Tons/Day 5% 25%

4% 66%

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-18 

## Impact of Growth To illustrate the impact of growth, year 2020 no-growth emissions were estimated by removing the growth factors from the 2020 base line emissions. Figure 3-4 presents the comparison of the 2020 projected emissions with and without growth. It should be noted that in this analysis the benef it of New Source Review is not included. As shown in Table 3-2, the growth from year 2002 to 2020 is significa nt and presents a formidable challenge to our air quality improvement efforts. We ar e expecting 22% growth in population; 23% growth in housing units; 21% growth in em ployment; and 19% growth in vehicle miles traveled. The projected growth will offset the impressive progress made in reducing VOC and NOx emissions through adopt ed regulations. To overcom e such challenges and meet EPA’s more stringent standards necessitates c ontinuing aggressive clean-up efforts from all air quality agencies.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

VOC - G VOC - NG NOx - G NOx - NG **CO - G **CO - NG SOx - G SOx - NG PM2.5 - G PM2.5 -NG Point Area Road Dust Off-Road On-Road

* G = Emissions with growth; NG = Emissions without growth ** CO emissions are divided by 10



## FIGURE 3-4 2020 Emissions Forecast With and Without Growth (VOC & NOx – Summer Planning; CO, SOx & PM2.5 – Annual Average Inventory) 538

422 524

386

223

174

50 36 103 84

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-19 

## Locomotive Emissions
To illustrate the impact of growth on fu ture emissions, the following information on locomotive emissions is provided. As part of the emissions invent ory development, all adopted regulatory actions aff ecting future emissions limits are built into the baseline emissions inventory estimates. Relative to locomotive emissions, emission reductions associated with the current federal emissions standards, fuel standards, and the state MOU with the two major locomo tive operators have been inco rporated into the future projected baseline emissions inventory out to 2030. In addition, projected future economic growth has been incorporat ed into the baseline inventories.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

20

0

2 2 0

04 2006 20 0

8 2 0

10 2012 20 1 4 2 0

16 2018 20 2

0 2022 20 2

4 2 0

26 2028 20 3

0



# YearNOx (tpd)



## FIGURE 3-5A Locomotive NOx Baseline Emissions Trend

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-20 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90

2

002 200 4 2 006 2008 20 10 2012 20 14 2016 20 18 2020 202 2 2 024 202 6 2 028 2030



## YearPM2.5 (tpd)



## FIGURE 3-5B Locomotive PM2.5 Baseline Emissions Trend

The 1998 California MOU with th e locomotive industry would require that the railroads meet a fleetwide Tier 2 locomotive emission st andard on average to operate in the South Coast Air Basin. As shown in Figures 3- 5 and 3-6, the South Coast would show a somewhat greater benefit in ha ving cleaner engines earlier. In addition, the use of lower sulfur diesel fuel is expected to have a measurable benefit in NOx and PM emission reductions beginning in 2010. However, af ter 2012 there is a steady increase in emissions due to future growth projected for the rail industry. This growth is expected to overtake the benefits of the cleaner Tier 2 locomotives and low sulfur fuel standards. There is also significant uncertainty that the MOU will deliver the promised emission reductions. This AQMP seeks to provide the cleanest technologically feasible locomotives to accelerate emission reductions as early as possible.
Recently, the U.S. EPA provided preliminary estimates of locomotive emissions of NOx and PM projected out to the year 2040. Fi gures 3-6A and 3-6B provide the emission projections from the various t ypes of locomotives operating in the future. As older, uncontrolled locomotives (depicted in the figur es as Uncontrolled a nd Tier 0 fleets) are turned over to newer, lower em ission locomotives (depicted as Tier 1 and Tier 2 fleets), it is anticipated that th e locomotive fleet will be cleaner in the future due to changes in the emission standards for ne w locomotives. Figures 3-6A and 3-6B show draft EPA model results for locomotives from 2006 to 2040 for NOx and PM, respectively. The national emission trends shown in these figures are similar to those for the South Coast

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-21 Air Basin; that the anticipated growth will overtake the benefits of the cleaner Tier 2 locomotives.

FIGURE 3-6A Projected Nationwide NOx Emissions from Locomotives

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-22 Source: U.S. EPA, Presentation at the Second Public Meeting to Discuss Future Locomotive Emissions Control Factors, CARB (July 13, 2006).


## FIGURE 3-6B Projected Nationwide Particulate Matter Emissions from Locomotives


## TOP TEN SOURCE CATEGORIES (2002, 2014, 2023)

This portion of Chapter 3 provides the ra nking of the top 10 contributors to the inventory for the years 2002, 2014, and 2023. The annual average inventory for VOC, NOx, SOx and PM2.5 are shown in the follo wing figures. VOC a nd NOx inventories are usually presented with a planning inventory, but th e ranking would not change between planning and annual av erage. The categorization can be done several ways. These categories are fairly broad, intended for illustration purposes.
Table 3-6 lists the top 10 categories for each of the three years for VOCs. The top five categories in each year are fairly consiste nt, although the ranking changes slightly for some categories. Mobile source categories and consumer products are responsible for a large portion of the emissions; the top 10 cate gories account for 82 percent of the total VOC inventory in 2002.

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-23 TABLE 3–6 Top Ten Ranking for VOC Emissions (2002, 2014, 2023), from Highest to Lowest
2002* 2014* 2023* 1 Light-Duty Passenger Cars Consum er Products Consumer Products 2 Consumer Products Off-Road Equipment Off-Road Equipment 3 Off-Road Equipment Light-Duty Pa ssenger Cars Recreational Boats 4 Light-Duty Trucks Light-Dut y Trucks Light-Duty Trucks 5 Architectural Coatings Recrea tional Boats Petroleum Marketing 6 Recreational Boats Petroleum Mark eting Light Duty Passenger Cars 7 Heavy-Duty Gasoline Trucks Architectural Coatings Architectural Coatings

8 Medium-Duty Trucks Coatings & Related Processes Coatings & Related Processes 9 Petroleum Marketing Medi um-Duty Trucks Aircraft 10 Coatings & Related Processes Heavy-Duty Gasoline Trucks Medium-Duty Trucks

* Refer to Figures 3-7 to 3-18 for the annual average emissions totals.

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-24 

# VOC Annual Average Emissions-2002

35 31
25 28 44 49 91 99 110 178



## 0 40 80 120 160 200

L i gh

t

- Du

ty

Pas

s eng

er C

a r s
Con su

m

e r Pr

o duc

t s Off-Ro a d Eq

uipm e nt Light - Duty Tru c ks Archit e ct

u ra l Coat i n g s Recreati o nal Boats

Heav y -Du

t y Gaso l ine Tru c ks Medium-Duty Trucks

Pe

t r ol

e um

Mar

ke

t ing

Co

at i n gs

&

Relat e d

P

ro

ce

sse

s



## FIGURE 3-7 Top Ten Categories for VOC 2002



# VOC Annual Average Emissions-2014

22 24 13 17 28 35 41 50 61 107



## 0 40 80 120 160 200

Consumer Products

O f f- Ro

ad

E

quip

m en

t Light-Duty Passenger Cars Light-Duty Trucks

R ecreat i onal B o a t s

Pe

tro

le

u m

Ma

r ke

t in

g

A

rc h itec

tu ral

Coat in

g s

Coa

tin

gs & Re

l ated Processes Mediu m -Du

t y T ruc

k s Heavy-D u t y Gasolin e Trucks



## FIGURE 3-8 Top Ten Categories for VOC 2014

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-25 

# VOC Annual Average Emissions-2023

27 24 13 13 29 31 31 35 50 114



## 0 40 80 120 160 200

C

onsumper Pr

oduct s Off-Road Equipment

R

e c rea

ti onal boats

L ig h t - Duty Pas s enger Tr

u cks

P etro

l eum Mar k eting
Light- D

u ty

Pa

ss

e n ger

Car

s Architectural Coatings

C

o a ting

s &

R elate d

Pr

o c e s se

s Air c raft

Me

d iu

m-

Du

t y T

ru ck

s



## FIGURE 3-9 Top Ten Categories for VOC 2023

Table 3-7 shows the top 10 categories for each of the three years for NOx. As with their predominant contribution to VOC emissi ons, mobile source categories are the predominant contributor to NOx emissions. For NOx, RECLAIM and residential fuel combustion are the stationary and area source cat egories that are in the top 10 list. The top 10 categories account for 91 percent of the total NOx inventory in 2002.

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-26 TABLE 3-7 Top Ten Ranking for NOx Emissions (2002, 2014, 2023), from Highest to Lowest

2002* 2014* 2023* 1 Off-Road Equipment Heavy-Duty Di esel Trucks Ships & Commercial Boats 2 Heavy-Duty Diesel Trucks Off-R oad Equipment Off-Road Equipment 3 Light-Duty Passenger Cars Ships & Commercial Boats Heavy-Duty Diesel Trucks

4 Light-Duty Trucks Light -Duty Trucks Aircraft 5 Ships & Commercial Boats Light-Duty Passenger Cars Trains

6 Medium-Duty Trucks RECLAIM RECLAIM 7 Heavy-Duty Gasoline Trucks Heavy-Duty Gasoline Trucks Light-Duty Trucks

8 Trains ** Trains ** Residential Fuel Combustion 9 RECLAIM Residential Fuel Combustion Light-Duty Passenger Cars

10 Residential Fuel Combustion Aircraft Heavy-Duty Gasoline Trucks * Refer to Figures 3-7 to 3-18 for the annual average emissions totals. ** This assumes that the CARB railroad MOU is fully effective. It is likely that this may not occur because there are broadly worded exemptions in the MOU that could result in less emission reductions. However, if AQMD Rules 3501 - Recordkeeping for Locomotive Idling and 3502 - Minimization of Emissions from Locomotive Idling are implemented, more certainty in achieving emission reducti ons will occur. Recently, these rules were held invalid by a court, if this decision is ultimately reversed and the rules are upheld, AQMD staff intends to submit these rules into the State Implementation Plan (SIP).

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-27 

# NOx Annual Average Emissions-2002

FIGURE 3-10 Top Ten Categories for NOx 2002 

# NOx Annual Average Emissions-2014

23 24 22 22 27 37 43 87 137 145



## 0 40 80 120 160 200

H eavy-Duty Diese l Trucks

Off-Ro a d Eq u ipm

e nt

Sh

i ps

&

Com m er

c ial

Bo

ats

L ig h t- D

u ty

T

ru cks

L ig h t - Duty Pas s enger Cars REC L AIM

Hea

vy

- D uty Gas o line Tru ck

s Train s

Re

s identia l Fu

e l Co

mb

u s tion Air c r a f t



## FIGURE 3-11 Top Ten Categories for NOx 2014 38 242 228

148
127

64 52
29 27 48



## 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Off-Road Equipment
Heavy - Dut

y Diesel Tr

uck

s

Li

g ht

- Dut

y Pas

se

nger

C

ar

s Light - Dut

y T

r uck

s

Sh

ips

& C

o mmerci al Boast

M edium-Duty T r uc k s

Hea

v y-Duty Ga s ol i ne

Tr

u cks Trains REC L AIM

R

es i d ent

i al

Fuel

Com b ust

i o n

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-28 

# NOx Annual Average Emissions-2023

21 23 17 17 27 28 29 78 81 116



## 0 40 80 120 160 200

Ships & Commerci a l Boats

O ff

- Ro

ad

E

quip

m en

t

H

eavy - Du

t y D ie sel

Tr

u ck

s Air c r a f t Tr a in

s
R ECL

A IM

L ig h t- D uty

T

ru c ks Residential Fuel Combustion

L ig h t -D

uty

Pa

s s eng

e r Ca

r s

He

a vy-D u t y G

a solin e Tr

u cks



## FIGURE 3-12 Top Ten Categories for NOx 2023

Table 3-8 shows the top 10 cat egories for each of the th ree years for SOx. Ship emissions are a more significant contributor for SOx than for the other three pollutants in this section. RECLAIM is consistently the second by ranking. Ships and commercial boats are consistently the highest emitting source category. The top ten categories represent 95 percent of the total SOx inventory in 2002.

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-29 TABLE 3-8 Top Ten Ranking for SOx Emissions (2002, 2014, 2023), from Highest to Lowest
2002* 2014* 2023* 1 Ships & Commercial Boats Ships & Comme rcial Boats Ships & Commercial Boats 2 RECLAIM RECLAIM RECLAIM3 Petroleum Refineries (nonRECLAIM) Aircraft Aircraft

4 Heavy-Duty Diesel Trucks Manufacturing & Industrial Combustion Manufacturing & Industrial Combustion 5 Aircraft Light-Duty Passenger Cars Light-Duty Passenger Cars 6 Trains ** Light-Duty Tr ucks Light-Duty Trucks 7 Off-Road Equipment Service & Commercial Combustion Service & Commercial Combustion 8 Light-Duty Passenger Cars Petroleum Refineries (nonRECLAIM) Petroleum Refineries (nonRECLAIM) 9 Manufacturing & Industrial Combustion Waste Burning & Disposal Waste Burning & Disposal

10 Light-Duty Trucks Residential Fuel Combustion Residential Fuel Combustion * Refer to Figures 3-7 to 3-18 for the annual average emissions totals. ** This assumes that the CARB railroad MOU is fully effective. It is likely that this may not occur because there are broadly worded exemptions in the MOU that could result in less emission reductions. However, if AQMD Rules 3501 - Recordkeeping for Locomotive Idling and 3502 - Minimization of Emissions from Locomotive Idling are implemented, more certainty in achievi ng emission reductions will occur. Recen tly, these rules were held invalid by a court. If this decision is ultimately reversed, and the ru les are upheld, AQMD staff intends to submit these rules into the State implementation Plan (SIP).

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-30 

# SOx Annual Average Emissions-2002

23

12

7

2 111111 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

S hips

&

C o mmercia l B oa t s RE CL

AI M Petroleum Re

f i ner

i es

He

a v y - Du

t y D i e s el T r u c ks Aircraft Tr a ins

Of f -Ro

a d Equi p men

t

Lig

h t - Du

t y P a ssen

g er Ca

r s

Ma

nu fac

tur

in g &

Ind

u s t r ial

Co

mb

u sti

o n Light-Du t y T r u c kstpd



## FIGURE 3-13 Top Ten Categories for SOx 2002



# SOx Annual Average Emissions-2014

22

12

2 11111 0.5 0.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

S hips

& C o mmercia l Boa

t s R ECL

AI M Aircraft

Ma

n ufac

tur

in g & Ind

u s t ri a l Co

m bu

s t i o n

L i g h t - Du

t y Pa

s s en g er Ca

r s Light-Duty Trucks

Servi

c e & Comme r ci a l Co

m bu

s t i o n

Pe

t roleu

m Re

f i n e r i es

Was

t e B u rni

n g & Di s p o sa l

R es i d e ntial Fuel Combustiontpd



## FIGURE 3-14 Top Ten Categories for SOx 2014

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-31 FIGURE 3-15 Top Ten Categories for SOx 2023

Table 3-9 shows the top 10 categories for each of the three years for directly emitted PM2.5. In contrast to the rankings for the other three pollutants in this section of the chapter, paved road dust and cooking are consistently at the top of the ranking for PM2.5 emissions. Each of these categories increases over time. The top ten categories represent 80 percent of the total directly emitted PM2.5 inventory in 2002, however, total directly emitted PM2.5 only accounts for about 25 percent of all ambient PM2.5. 

# SOx Annual Average Emissions-2023

33

12

3 2 1111 0.5 0.5 

### 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Sh

i ps & Comm er cial

Boa

ts
R ECL

AI

M Ai r craf

t
Manufactur i n g & In

d ustrial Co m bu

s tion

Light- D u t y Pass e nger Ca r s Light - Duty

T ru ck

s

Serv

i ce & Commercial C o m b u stion

Pe

troleum Refiner i es Waste Burn i ng

& Dis p osal Residential Fu e l Combustiontpd

## Final 2007 AQMP

3-32 TABLE 3-9 Top Ten Ranking for Directly Emitte d PM2.5 Emissions (2002, 2014, 2023), from Highest to Lowest
2002* 2014* 2023* 1 Paved Road Dust Paved Road Dust Paved Road Dust
2 Commercial Cooking Commercial Cooking Commercial Cooking
3 Off-Road Equipment Residential Fuel Co mbustion Residential Fuel Combustion
4 Heavy-Duty Diesel Trucks Off-Road Equipment Construction & Demolition Dust 5 Residential Fuel Combustion Construction & Demolition Dust Ships and Commercial Boats

6 Ships & Commercial Boats Heavy-Duty Diesel Trucks Light-Duty Trucks

7 Light-Duty Passenger Cars Waste Burning & Disposal Light-Duty Passenger Cars
8 Construction & Demolition Dust Light-Duty Trucks Waste Burning & Disposal

9 Light-Duty Trucks Light-Duty Passenger Cars Recreational Boats
10 Wood & Paper Ships & Commercial Boats Off-Road Equipment * Refer to Figures 3-7 through 3-18 for the annual average emissions totals.


# Directly Emitted PM2.5 Annual Average Emissions-2002

19

13 13

9 8

444 3 2 0 5 10 15 20 25

Paved Road Dust

Co

mme

r c i a l Co

o kin

g

O f f-R

o ad

E q uipme n t

He

avy-Duty Diesel Tru c k s
Residen t ial Fue l Co

mb

ustio

n

Shi

p s & Commercial Boats

Lig

h t - Duty P a ssen

g er Ca

r s

Co

nst

r u c t i o n & De

mo

l it i o n D us t Light-Duty T rucks Wood & Papertpd



## FIGURE 3-16 Top Ten Categories for PM2.5 2002

## Chapter 3 Base Year and Future Emissions

3-33 

# Directly Emitted PM2.5 Annual Average Emissions-2014

19

15

9 7 6 6 5 444
0 5 10 15 20 25

Paved Road Dust

Co

mme

r c i a l Co

o kin

g

R es i d e ntial

F uel Combus t ion Off-Road Equipment

C o nstruction & D e molitio n D ust

Hea

v y-Du

t y Die

s el T r u cks

Waste Burning & Di s posal

L ig ht-D

u t y T r u cks

L ig ht-D

u t y P as s e n ger Cars

Shi

p s & Commercial Boatstpd



## FIGURE 3-17 Top Ten Categories for PM2.5 2014

FIGURE 3-18 Top Ten Categories for PM2.5 2023 

# Directly Emitted PM2.5 Annual Average Emissions-2023

20

16

9 7 6 5555 3 

### 0 5 10 15 20 25

Pav

e d R oa d D

u st

C ommercial Coo k ing

R es id entia

l Fu

e l Co

mb

ust

io n

Co

n struction & De m olition Dust

Ship

s & Commercial Boats

Li g h t -D

ut y T r u ck

s

L ig h t- D ut y P a s se

n g e r C

ar s Waste Burning & Disposal

Rec

r e a tio

n al Boa t s

Of

f- R oa d Eq

uip

men

ttpd