J u s t i c e Re s e a R c h

National Institute of Justice

Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention

U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

MAY 2014 Greg Ridgeway • Acting Director, NIJ Robert L. Listenbee • Administrator, OJJDP

CRIMINAL CAREER PATTERNS

T

his bulletin discusses the criminal careers of offenders, specifically the 

links between offending patterns in adolescence and in adulthood. Many 

empirical studies have documented the prevalence (proportion of individuals who participate in crime at any given time) of offending in criminal careers. Most studies indicate that prevalence peaks in the teenage years (around 

ages 15-19) and then declines in the early 20s. Although most individuals 

self-report involvement in some form of delinquent or criminal behavior by 

early adulthood, official records from police contacts, arrests and convictions 

yield a much smaller prevalence estimate (about 20-40 percent depending on 

data source, follow-up period, and so forth). In self-reported crime, prevalence 

peaks in the early teens; according to official records, the peak occurs in later 

adolescence. These figures also vary by crime type, with minor crimes peaking 

earlier and serious crimes peaking later. In studies that provide information on 

offending across race and gender, the evidence tends to show that males and 

minorities (especially African-Americans) show an earlier and higher prevalence peak than females and whites.

The evidence on individual offending frequency (the number of crimes committed per offender per year) is more mixed than the findings emerging from 

prevalence estimates. Individual offending frequency 

appears to vary according to several characteristics, 

including sample composition, measures of offending and time periods observed. Annual individual 

offending frequency appears to peak in late adolescence, and only among a select few offenders does it 

remain stable for a relatively long time. Furthermore, 

individual offending frequencies appear to be higher 

for nonviolent than for violent offenses, but both 

decline over time. 

A strong continuity has been found in criminal behavior from childhood to adolescence to adulthood. 

Yet most children and adolescents who engage in delinquent behavior do not go on to engage in criminal 

behavior as adults, and even fewer individuals escape 

adolescence without engaging in delinquency only 

to begin criminal involvement during adulthood. 

Where persistence is defined as offending both during 

and after adolescence, research suggests that 30-60 

percent of juvenile delinquents known to the police 

or juvenile courts persisted as adult offenders, with at 

least one arrest or conviction as an adult for an index 

or felony offense.

Knowledge of official juvenile delinquency status 

helps predict the prevalence of officially recorded 

crime in adulthood. Those arrested for the first time 

as adults were considerably more likely than their 

This publication summarizes Bulletin 2: Criminal Career Patterns by Alex R. 

Piquero, J. David Hawkins, Lila Kazemian, and David Petechuk, NCJ 242932, 

available at NCJRS.gov. Bulletin 2 is one in a series of bulletins prepared for 

Transitions From Juvenile to Adult: Papers From the Study Group on Transitions 

From Juvenile Delinquency to Adult Crime. The study group was led by David 

Farrington and Rolf Loeber under award number 2008-IJ-CX-K402; to learn 

more, visit NIJ.gov, keyword “Transitions to Adulthood.” This summary was 

written by Carrie Mulford, a social science analyst at NIJ. See full bulletin for 

source citations.
2 n J u s t i c e R e s e a r c h

delinquent counterparts to be arrested less frequently 

and were very likely to be arrested only once in adulthood. Those arrested only as adults had a very low 

frequency of officially recorded offenses in adulthood 

by age 26. These findings suggest a considerable degree of continuity in arrests between adolescence and 

adulthood. Additionally, the most frequent offenders 

tend to show the strongest and longest continuity 

in their offending behavior, whereas less frequent 

offenders are less likely to continue offending. In general, these findings hold across samples, demographic 

characteristics (race and gender), time periods and 

the length of observations. 

The notion that there are “specialists in crime,” 

especially corporate offenders and sex offenders, has 

been a consistent source of debate. The analyses of 

specialization in criminal careers suggest that there 

is little specific concentration within offense types 

among most offenders. This overall conclusion holds 

with respect to different samples, measures of offending (including the incorrect presumption of specialization among sex offenders), and time periods. 

Research suggests that those offenders who show 

evidence of specialization appear to concentrate their 

offending within a larger category of offenses (e.g., 

property crimes) and appear to switch within these 

larger categories. There is limited evidence of a slight 

trend toward increasing specialization with age.

The study of criminal careers has the potential to 

provide useful information to practitioners and policymakers. Understanding the continuity of offending 

from adolescence to adulthood is critical because it is 

during the transition to adulthood when practitioners 

and lawmakers make decisions regarding the incarceration of young offenders — some of whom will 

curtail their offending naturally and some of whom 

will persist into adulthood. Understanding the trajectory of criminal careers is also useful information to 

those who make sentencing decisions. If the average 

criminal career is short, then shorter sentences may 

be more appropriate, whereas if the average criminal 

career is longer, then longer sentences may be in 

order. The few career-length studies that exist have 

found that criminal careers tend to be less than 10 

years, which calls into question many long-term sentences that have characterized U.S. penal policy.

Practitioners and policymakers have a range of shortand long-term options when deciding what to do 

with current and future offenders. Criminal career 

data can provide useful information about patterns 

of criminal activity over time, allowing those who 

deal with delinquent and criminal offending and 

their consequences to make informed and competent 

decisions regarding incarceration and other forms of 

punishment given their limited resources.

Points of view or opinions expressed in this 

document are those of the author and do not 

necessarily represent the official position or 

policies of NIJ, OJJDP, or the U.S. Department 

of Justice.

The National Institute of Justice and the Office

of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention

are components of the Office of Justice 

Programs, which also includes the Bureau 

of Justice Assistance; the Bureau of Justice 

Statistics; the Office for Victims of Crime; 

and the Office of Sex Offender Sentencing, 

Monitoring, Apprehending, Registering, 

and Tracking (SMART).

NCJ 242545