### Arizona Class I Areas FIP Reasonable Progress Goal (RPG) Estimates sjb 2014-06-16



### via scaling 2018 Modeled Extinction (bext) by FIP emissions changes FIP SO2 and NOx emissions change relative to total emissions are used to scale 2018 modeled SO4 and NO3 extinction. Deciviews is calculated from total extinction sum, and scaled by a factor to reflect average after vs. before dv calc. WRAP projections used are from CMAQ 2000-04 Baseline (plan02d_rev) & 2018 PRPb (prp18b)

**Sheet Description**  notes Notes on RPG estimation methodology emis_work Emissions work area, and Scaling Factors emis18 2018 modeled emissions, and various ratios CMAQ_Rmo_2018 2018 modeled bext, monthly RRFs ("Rmo") RPG_Rmo FIP RPG calculation, monthly RRFs FRN_tables_Rmo RPG tables intended for FRN, monthly RRFs lookups Lookup tables, abbreviations, selected CAMx PSAT results

### Description of method used to estimate FIP 2018 Reasonable Progress Goals (RPGs)

**HI RH RPG method at TSD p.66 (pdf.71)**
Scale species extinction by corresponding change in emissions; species-specific rollback
1. Start with base year monitored extinction Monitored base year "2005" (5-year average of 2000-2004?) extinction by species

SO4, NO3, EC, OC, (fine) Soil, Coarse Mass (CM), Sea Salt (SS) (appears to have omitted Raleigh extinction, which should also be held constant)
2. Assume all constant except species affected by FIP: SO4 & NO3 3. Scale anthropogenic fraction of b_SO4 and b_NO3 by 2018/2005 emissions change

(for both 2018 without FIP, and 2018 with FIP controls)
b_SO4_2018 = b_SO4_2005 * biog_frac

+ b_SO4_2005 * anthro_frac * (2018 SOx emissions / 2005 SOx emissions)
Similar for b_NO3 Use Class I area-specific emissions, i.e. emissions from island area is on Not sure where biogenic and anthropogenic assumed fractions came from 4. Compute deciviews from dv = 10*ln(b/10)

b = Sum(b_species) + b_Rayleigh for monitored ("2005"), 2018 w/o FIP, 2018 w/FIP
**Application of Hawaii-like method to Arizona**
Use WRAP 2018 projected extinction (preliminary RPGs) as starting point, instead of measured base year; this includes effect of SIP (CMAQ with prp18b emissions; "prp18" = Prelim RP for 2018)
Apply FIP NOx and SOx emissions changes (ratio of post-FIP 2018 emissions to pre-FIP 2018 emissions) to nitrate and sulfate extinction
Note that the emission change is the change relative to the emissions used in the WRAP inventory (the ones used to make the 2018 projection) and *not* the within-FIP benefit of control Thus for a given facility, the change in emissions E

is not:E(FIP controlled) - E(EPA base case) but rather:E(FIP controlled) - E(WRAP 2018 case)
Total FIP emissions change including all facilities j =

WRAP emissions total + Sum{post-FIP emissions j} - Sum{WRAP 2018 emissions j} Hawaii RH FIP proposal: 77 FR 31692, May 29, 2012, "Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of Hawaii; Regional Haze Federal Implementation Plan; Proposed Rule" (docket EPA-R09-OAR-2012-0345) TSD file: "A-3 HI-RH-TSD-v3.pdf"

### Ratio to apply to extinctions is this divided by WRAP total

scaling factor = 1 + (facility FIP emissions - facility WRAP emissions)/(WRAP emissions) = 1 + ("FIP change")/(WRAP emissions)
Since the scaling factors are applied to average extinction (average over W20 or B20 days), whereas really want average deciviews (average of deciviews computed for each individual W20 or B20 day), to account for the difference between dv = average(10*log(bext/10)) and dv = 10*log((average bext)/10, an additional factor is applied, dv_TSS / dv_Calc from bext to get dv corrected for averaging ("dv corr. for avg.")
Since we don't have island/Class I area-specific inventories to use in the scaling as were used for Hawaii, here used emissions from Arizona plus neighboring states.

### Use WRAP 2018 projected extinction (preliminary RPGs) as starting point, instead of measured base year;

Apply FIP NOx and SOx emissions changes (ratio of post-FIP 2018 emissions to pre-FIP 2018 emissions) to nitrate and sulfate extinction
Note that the emission change is the change relative to the emissions used in the WRAP inventory (the ones used to make the 2018 projection) Hawaii RH FIP proposal: 77 FR 31692, May 29, 2012, "Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of Hawaii; Regional Haze Federal Implementation Plan; Proposed Rule" (docket EPA-R09-OAR-2012-0345) TSD file: "A-3 HI-RH-TSD-v3.pdf"

### Since the scaling factors are applied to average extinction (average over W20 or B20 days), whereas really want average deciviews (average of deciviews computed for each individual W20 or B20 day), to account for the difference between dv = average(10*log(bext/10)) and dv = 10*log((average bext)/10, an additional factor is applied, dv_TSS / dv_Calc from bext

Since we don't have island/Class I area-specific inventories to use in the scaling as were used for Hawaii,

### Emissions work area emissions in tons/yr

**Subcategory emissions changes preparation** Note: APS FCPP is in New Mexico; all other sources are in Arizona italics = same as prp18b **Facilities affected by EPA Regional Haze FIPs** Facility STAZ / NavajoBART / RP SO2 NOx SO2 NOx AEPCO Apache 2,3 AZAZ FIP BART 2231 6782.1 2231 845 APS Cholla 2,3,4 AZAZ FIP BART 7992 10700 7992 2153

SRP Coronado 2 AZAZ FIP BART 4468 12936.8 4468 1912

TEP Sundt 4 AZAZ FIP BART 1005 2705.3 536 917

Lhoist Nelson Kilns 1,2 AZAZ FIP BART 1385.7 93.1 3046 984

ASARCO Hayden Smelter AZAZ FIP BART 27009.7 87.9 2280 86

FMMI Miami Smelter AZAZ FIP BART 10368 464.6 4268 464.6

APS Cholla 1 AZAZ FIP RP 1335 1305 1335 1032 TEP Springerville 1,2 AZAZ FIP RP 7691.0 6524.4 7691.0 4,612
Phoenix Cement Plant Kiln 4 AZAZ FIP RP 394.6 3445.4 394.6 648.4

CalPortland Cement Plant Kilns 1,2,3,4 AZAZ FIP RP 133.2 4430.9 133.2 2607.0
SRP Navajo Generating Station AZNavajo FIPBART 8376.9 10610.6 8376.9 7657.3 APS Four Corners Power Plant NMNavajo FIPBART 17946.5 17265.817946.5 9026 CMAQ prp18b post-FIP(Below are various sums of the above; lines with Scen # can be as used in scenarios elsewhere)

**RPG Scenario Emissions for Facilities affected by EPA Regional Haze FIPs**

**Scen #**Facility Subtotals STAZ / NavajoBART / RP SO2 NOx SO2 NOx Navajo BART FIP AZNavajo FIPBART 8376.9 10610.6 8376.97657.328 Navajo BART FIP NMNavajo FIPBART 17946.5 17265.817946.5 9026
AZ FIP BART Phase 1 AZAZ FIP BART 1469130418.85 14691 4910 AZ FIP BART Phase 3 AZAZ FIP BART 39768.413350.901 101302451.628 **11 AZ FIP BART**  AZAZ FIP BART **54459.41 33769.76**  **24821 7361.628** 

AZ FIP RP EGUs AZAZ FIP RP 9025.9647829.4489025.964 5644 AZ FIP RP Cement AZAZ FIP RP 527.87876.222527.761 3255.4 AZ FIP RP EGUs & Cement AZAZ FIP RP 9553.715705.679553.725 8899

**12 AZ FIP BART & RP EGUs**  AZAZ FIP BART & RP **63485.38 41599.2** **33846.96 13005.63**  **13 AZ FIP BART & RP EGUs; and Navajo FIPs**  AZBoth FIPs BART & RP **71862.28 52209.8** **42223.86 20662.96**  **13 AZ FIP BART & RP EGUs; and Navajo FIPs**  NMBoth FIPs BART & RP **17946.5 17265.8** **17946.5 9026** 

**14 AZ FIP BART & RP EGUs & Cement**  AZAZ FIP BART & RP **64013.1 49475.43** **34374.72 16261**  **15 BART & RP EGUs & Cement; and Navajo FIPs**  AZBoth FIPs BART & RP **72390.04 60086.03** **42751.62 23918.36**  **15 BART & RP EGUs & Cement; and Navajo FIPs**  NMBoth FIPs BART & RP **17946.5 17265.8** **17946.5 9026** 

**20 AZ FIP BART and Navajo FIPs**  AZBoth FIPs BART **62836.31 44380.36** **33197.9 15018.96**  **20 AZ FIP BART and Navajo FIPs**  NMBoth FIPs BART **17946.5 17265.8** **17946.5 9026**  **Apache, Cholla, Coronado** Arizona FIP phase 1 NPR, 77 FR 72512, December 5, 2012

**SRP Navajo Generating Station** NGS NPR, 78 FR 8274, February 5, 2013 docket "NGS emissions and incremental costs.xlsx", 'Avg 2001-03' sheet LNB + SOFA + SCR (Units 1 – 3) (Option 4) Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Avg Heat Input (2001-2003) 7616.0 8120.3 7913.2MMBtu/hr Avg operating hours (01-03) 8006.5 8420.4 7845.1hrs/yr NOx emissions at SCR 0.08 lb/MMBtu 2439.1 2735.0 2483.2tons/year
sum **7657.3** CMAQ prp18b post-FIP**APS Four Corners Power Plant**

FCCP Supplemental NPR, 76 FR 10530, February 25, 2011 p.10536, Table 4, Comparison of NOx Emissions (tons) Based on EPA BART Proposal and the Alternative Emission Control Strategy Alternative emission control strategy, entry for 2019 and beyond: 9026 tpy NOxitalics = same as prp18b

**Source for post-FIP emissions; orig. October 2013, updated May 2014** Phase 1 NPR, p.72538 Table 5, SCR Emissions 431+414 NOx Phase 1 NPR, p.72548 Table 11, for SCR w/LNB+OFA 602+655+896 NOx Phase 1 NPR, p.72560 Table 16 for SCR w/LNB+OFA 794 NOx, and p.72556 Table 14 for SCR w/LNB+OFA w/ low load temp ctrl 1118 NOx 79 FR 9328, Table 7 and 12, DSI and SNCR+LNB+OFA (gives base as 2145 SO2, 1310 NOx) 79 FR 9338, Tables 21 and 23. Low-S fuel table 1205+1841 and SNCR table 491+493 (gave base 1571+2400=3971 SO2 and 981+985=1996 NOx) Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table III.D-3, Baseline emissions Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Page 65 of 133, Tons SO2 controlled (base 22621 SO2, 86 NOx; SO2 reduction 20341) draft "BART Analysis of Control Options for Freeport Draft 2013 08 27 (CW).docx" fug. -13689 and ELF -247 SO2; "Freeport SO2 Emissions 2013-08- 22.xlsx" has fug. 2010: 16626 SO2; acid plant 1201; ELF 377 Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table IV.D-3, LNB+OFA (baseline) emissions of 1032 tpy NOx Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table IV.D-3, LNB+OFA (baseline) emissions of 2819+2422=4612 NOx Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table IV.C-8: SNCR (gives base as 648.4/50% = 1296.8 NOx) (AZ-Source-Summary gives base = 1620 NOx) Kiln 1-3, Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table IV.B-10, no controls, 3*626 tpy Kiln 4, Table IV.B-11, SNCR but at 35% instead of 50% ctrl eff, 729 tpy NPR docket "NGS emissions and incremental costs.xlsx" Supplemental NPR, Table 4, for 2018 

### Emissions used in scaling **Emissions from WRAP 2018 CMAQ prp18b** Emissions subset SO2CMAQ total12527551 AZ & neighbors 355902 AZ & non-CA neighbors 290295 

### FIP emission change Arizona 76697 **SO2 NOx**  AZ & neighbor points 280538 AZ & non-CA neighbor points 238606

AZ points 67429



### Used scenario 11 (FIP BART)-29638.41-26408.13

incl. AZ & NM change: both NGS & FCPP :-29638.41-39786.65



### Used scenario 14 (FIP BART+RP)**-29638.41 -33214.4**  Scen. 15 AZ BART & RP; and NGS & FCPP :

Scen. 20 AZ BART; and NGS & FCPP :p.10536, Table 4, Comparison of NOx Emissions (tons) Based on EPA BART Proposal and the Alternative Emission Control Strategy

### Emissions from WRAP 2018 CMAQ prp18bNOx References to CMAQ emissions rows and columns in sheet 'emis18', for checking emission subset formulas17107280 Columns PT AF MV Nat Area sum

1855258 SO2 C D E F G I 1141502 NOx M N O P Q S 223138 non-California neigbors 500213 Rows AZ CA CO NV NM UT total 390923 61 62 63 66 67 71 80 68748

### Modeled Emissions - 2018 emissions in tons/yr

2018 CMAQ emissions (with optional alternative growth factor)

WRAP inventory totals from http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/Results/HazePlanning.aspx, 2013-08-12 Sheet contains: prp18b tables from TSS; alt. growth factor table; prp18b with alt. growth factor Enter ratio of revised 2018 emissions to prp18b emissions (initially all 1).

SO2 from TSS CMAQ Ei, prp18b

TSS SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum

AZ 67429.45 181.4361308.26754369.271 3408.17 76696.595 CA 41931.77 413.0223623.6275 9839.516 9799.04 65606.976 CO 44057.63 79.331 939.1275 2541.936 7500.79 55118.815 ID 9378.38 353.22 278.3425 10764.66 3053.29 23827.893 MT 36697.08 230.898 255.4875 3655.342 3430.47 44269.278 NV 60678.88 80.6 129.9875 194.798 5857.64 66941.906 NM 31011.62 60.815 370.1325 2312.758 15778.49 49533.816 ND 41698.58 10.893 547.195 2200.169 14194.22 58651.057 OR 10176.04 1321.817 613.2875 7328.667 8421.85 27861.662 SD 11986.46 2.673 158.2325 362.411 1662.54 14172.317 UT 35428.45 54.465 520.3125 2417.719 3582.8 42003.747 WA 25181.61 1043.382 940.785 1640.788 8576.28 37382.845 WY 96809.16 108.952 145.1875 2286.24423096.58 122446.12 CAN 1946919 0 9025.51 0189675.45 2145620 CEN 1869451.1 3485.67427654.165 0335860.88 2236451.8 EUS 5793106.2 7380.40486611.998 0793054.47 6680153.1 MEX 761755.26 0 3108.54 0 15949.8 780813.6 PO OD total1088369714807.582136230.1949914.2791442902.8 12527551

SO2 factor Used in estimating CMAQ Ci below Alternative growth factor, to apply to above prp18b

manual SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum

AZ 1 1 1 1 1 CA 1 1 1 1 1 CO 1 1 1 1 1 ID 1 1 1 1 1 MT 1 1 1 1 1 NV 1 1 1 1 1 NM 1 1 1 1 1 ND 1 1 1 1 1 OR 1 1 1 1 1 SD 1 1 1 1 1 UT 1 1 1 1 1 WA 1 1 1 1 1WY 1 1 1 1 1 CAN 1 1 1 1 1 CEN 1 1 1 1 1 EUS 1 1 1 1 1 MEX 1 1 1 1 1 PO OD total

SO2 Used for emission ratio below, and also for emis_scen CMAQ Ei, prp18b with alt.growth factor **name: CMAQ_SO2**
product SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum

AZ 67429.45 181.4361308.26754369.271 3408.17 76696.595 CA 41931.77 413.0223623.6275 9839.516 9799.04 65606.976 CO 44057.63 79.331 939.1275 2541.936 7500.79 55118.815 ID 9378.38 353.22 278.3425 10764.66 3053.29 23827.893 MT 36697.08 230.898 255.4875 3655.342 3430.47 44269.278 NV 60678.88 80.6 129.9875 194.798 5857.64 66941.906 NM 31011.62 60.815 370.1325 2312.758 15778.49 49533.816 ND 41698.58 10.893 547.195 2200.169 14194.22 58651.057 OR 10176.04 1321.817 613.2875 7328.667 8421.85 27861.662 SD 11986.46 2.673 158.2325 362.411 1662.54 14172.317 UT 35428.45 54.465 520.3125 2417.719 3582.8 42003.747 WA 25181.61 1043.382 940.785 1640.788 8576.28 37382.845 WY 96809.16 108.952 145.1875 2286.24423096.58 122446.12 CAN 1946919 0 9025.51 0189675.45 2145620 CEN 1869451.1 3485.67427654.165 0335860.88 2236451.8 EUS 5793106.2 7380.40486611.998 0793054.47 6680153.1 MEX 761755.26 0 3108.54 0 15949.8 780813.6 PO OD total1088369714807.582136230.1949914.2791442902.8 12527551NOx

CMAQ Ei, prp18b

SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum AZ 68748.38 675.62996756.99544158.29078 12798.68 223137.98 CA 109289.442768.071410872.1693043.0765897783.69 713756.44 CO 101817.89 406.19883165.22346646.2388749848.86 281884.41 ID 12056.42 1679.79829560.69556258.2485942067.63 141622.79 MT 33505.21 856.22454090.77372021.65872 19403.67 179877.54 NV 68615.38 298.54939462.80345335.354433320.12 187032.21 NM 73412.34 261.87148217.32350708.08988108567.47 281167.09 ND 58749.01 40.635157.49523044.05208 7503.42 124494.58 OR 22292.3 5150.06772315.69543927.28826 17022.86 160708.21 SD 30184.86 20.06231843.75854511.70507 3860.14 120420.52 UT 78329.37 228.247 53493.921470.15125 14758.2 168279.87 WA 44206.244971.25399116.20523919.96686 21861.28 194074.95 WY 110109.22 483.525 59404.7224296.73257 53805.34 248099.54 CAN 667659.04 0733678.61 254936.7469055.13 2125329.5 CEN 1526753.7 4191.021049356.3624566.9153730160.01 3935027.9 EUS 3361449.1 30549.812488210.1332287.4534809241.73 7021738.2 MEX 437951.72 0255662.45274630.3058 32384.1 1000628.6 PO OD total6805129.652580.9245640365.22085762.2282523442.3 17107280

NOx factor Alternative growth factor, to apply to above prp18b

SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum AZ 1 1 1 1 1 CA 1 1 1 1 1 CO 1 1 1 1 1 ID 1 1 1 1 1 MT 1 1 1 1 1 NV 1 1 1 1 1 NM 1 1 1 1 1 ND 1 1 1 1 1 OR 1 1 1 1 1 SD 1 1 1 1 1 UT 1 1 1 1 1 WA 1 1 1 1 1WY 1 1 1 1 1

CAN 1 1 1 1 1 CEN 1 1 1 1 1 EUS 1 1 1 1 1 MEX 1 1 1 1 1 PO OD total

NOx CMAQ Ei, prp18b with alt.growth factor **name: CMAQ_NOx**

SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum AZ 68748.38 675.62996756.99544158.29078 12798.68 223137.98 CA 109289.442768.071410872.1693043.0765897783.69 713756.44 CO 101817.89 406.19883165.22346646.2388749848.86 281884.41 ID 12056.42 1679.79829560.69556258.2485942067.63 141622.79 MT 33505.21 856.22454090.77372021.65872 19403.67 179877.54 NV 68615.38 298.54939462.80345335.354433320.12 187032.21 NM 73412.34 261.87148217.32350708.08988108567.47 281167.09 ND 58749.01 40.635157.49523044.05208 7503.42 124494.58 OR 22292.3 5150.06772315.69543927.28826 17022.86 160708.21 SD 30184.86 20.06231843.75854511.70507 3860.14 120420.52 UT 78329.37 228.247 53493.921470.15125 14758.2 168279.87 WA 44206.244971.25399116.20523919.96686 21861.28 194074.95 WY 110109.22 483.525 59404.7224296.73257 53805.34 248099.54 CAN 667659.04 0733678.61 254936.7469055.13 2125329.5 CEN 1526753.7 4191.021049356.3624566.9153730160.01 3935027.9 EUS 3361449.1 30549.812488210.1332287.4534809241.73 7021738.2 MEX 437951.72 0255662.45274630.3058 32384.1 1000628.6 PO OD total6805129.652580.9245640365.22085762.2282523442.3 17107280**2018 Projected Extinction (bext) on Best and Worst 20% days**

**Arizona Class I area IMPROVE monitors** From WRAP TSS. Retrieved June 2014 CMAQ scenario: 2000-04 Baseline (plan02d_rev) & 2018 PRPb (prp18b) **Using "monthly" RRFs , computed from monthly averages of W20 or B20 days, TSS option "Monthly Weighted"**  from TSS Haze Planning, Modeling, "Aux Data" tables, "PROJ" 1-line table

**Worst 20% of days**

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 bOMC bEC bSoil bCM bSs bRay BALD1 2018 5.483 1.052 12.630 2.563 1.445 2.830 0.043 9 CHIR1 2018 7.750 1.024 7.420 1.458 3.280 8.632 0.104 10 GRCA2 2018 4.381 1.991 10.382 2.069 1.449 3.491 0.135 9 IKBA1 2018 5.361 2.600 7.593 1.769 3.177 6.217 0.076 10 PEFO1 2018 5.611 1.468 10.801 2.407 2.338 7.303 0.029 9 SAGU1 2018 6.612 5.134 9.886 2.221 5.342 7.051 0.180 10 SAWE1 2018 6.456 4.446 7.788 2.353 8.046 12.778 0.265 10 SIAN1 2018 5.592 1.361 11.617 1.998 2.622 5.913 0.066 10 SYCA1 2018 4.015 1.818 11.513 2.535 7.721 9.385 0.122 9 TONT1 2018 6.242 2.903 10.102 1.946 3.034 7.400 0.105 10

**Best 20% of days**

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 bOMC bEC bSoil bCM bSs bRay BALD1 2018 1.491 0.398 1.218 0.505 0.296 0.464 0.003 9 CHIR1 2018 2.393 0.459 1.420 0.578 0.425 1.220 0.014 10 GRCA2 2018 1.356 0.519 0.626 0.292 0.162 0.446 0.018 9 IKBA1 2018 2.021 0.782 1.869 0.629 0.524 1.041 0.019 10 PEFO1 2018 1.944 0.828 1.902 1.022 0.456 0.963 0.006 9 SAGU1 2018 2.482 0.946 2.306 0.872 1.808 1.826 0.113 10 SAWE1 2018 2.787 0.813 2.833 1.305 2.196 3.133 0.150 10 SIAN1 2018 2.041 0.605 2.929 1.063 0.466 0.936 0.039 10 SYCA1 2018 1.862 1.152 2.463 1.158 0.808 1.034 0.028 9 TONT1 2018 2.599 0.747 2.390 0.736 0.716 1.504 0.043 10**bold**= referred to in RPG calc. sheet(s)

b_other = b_total less bSO4 and bNO3 dvTSS / dvCalc = scale correction for avg.{dv(bext)} / dv(avg.{bext})

from TSS SIP RPG d(TSS-SIP) rnd2 b_other b_total dv dv 28.51 35.05 12.54 11.523 

### 0.919 11.52 0.00 30.89 39.67 13.78 13.353 0.969 13.35 0.00 26.53 32.90 11.91 11.137 0.935 11.14 0.00 28.83 36.79 13.03 12.765 0.980 12.76 0.00 31.88 38.96 13.60 12.762 0.938 12.85 -0.09 34.68 46.43 15.35 14.816 0.965 14.82 0.00 41.23 52.13 16.51 15.988 0.968 15.99 0.00 32.22 39.17 13.65 13.167 0.964 13.17 0.00 40.28 46.11 15.28 14.998 0.981 15.00 0.00 32.59 41.73 14.29 13.849 0.969 13.89 -0.04

from TSS b_other b_total dv dv 11.49 13.38 2.91 2.859 0.983 2.86 0.00 13.66 16.51 5.01 4.897 0.977 4.94 -0.04 10.54 12.42 2.17 2.116 0.977 2.12 0.00 14.08 16.88 5.24 5.175 0.988 5.17 0.00 13.35 16.12 4.78 4.734 0.991 4.73 0.00 16.92 20.35 7.11 7.038 0.990 7.04 0.00 19.62 23.22 8.42 8.338 0.990 8.34 0.00 15.43 18.08 5.92 5.882 0.993 5.88 0.00 14.49 17.50 5.60 5.489 0.980 5.49 0.00 15.39 18.74 6.28 6.217 0.990 6.22 0.00 calculated from b's

calculated from b's dvTSS / dvCalc

dvTSS / dvCalc

### 2018 Projected Extinction (bext) on Best and Worst 20% days, Arizona IMPROVE monitors

Scale SO4 and NO3 bext from sheet 'CMAQ_Rmo_2018' by emissions scenario scaling factor



### FIP**BART and RP source controls**  **Arizona and neighboring states are assumed to contribute**  **CMAQ RRFs used: W20/B20 days in each month ("monthly weighted")**

Emissions SO2 NOx FIP ch. -29638 -33214Change from BART and RP controls, rel. corresp. CMAQ CMAQ 355902 1855258Arizona and neighboring states scaling factor0.91672310.9820972ratio of change to total **Worst 20% of days** scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr.Change rel. CMAQ 2018 Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg.chg.b_total chg.dv BALD1 2018 5.026 1.033 34.57 12.40 **11.40** -0.48 **-0.13** CHIR1 2018 7.105 1.006 39.00 13.61 **13.19** -0.66 **-0.16** GRCA2 2018 4.016 1.955 32.50 11.79 **11.02** -0.40 **-0.11** IKBA1 2018 4.915 2.553 36.30 12.89 **12.63** -0.49 **-0.13** PEFO1 2018 5.144 1.442 38.46 13.47 **12.64** -0.49 **-0.12** SAGU1 2018 6.062 5.042 45.78 15.21 **14.68** -0.64 **-0.13** SAWE1 2018 5.918 4.367 51.51 16.39 **15.87** -0.62 **-0.12** SIAN1 2018 5.127 1.336 38.68 13.53 **13.05** -0.49 **-0.12** SYCA1 2018 3.681 1.786 45.74 15.20 **14.92** -0.37 **-0.08** TONT1 2018 5.722 2.851 41.16 14.15 **13.72** -0.57 **-0.13**

**Best 20% of days** scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr.Change rel. CMAQ 2018 Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg.chg.b_total chg.dv BALD1 2018 1.367 0.391 13.25 2.81 **2.76** -0.13 **-0.10** CHIR1 2018 2.194 0.450 16.30 4.89 **4.77** -0.21 **-0.12** GRCA2 2018 1.243 0.509 12.30 2.07 **2.02** -0.12 **-0.10** IKBA1 2018 1.852 0.768 16.70 5.13 **5.07** -0.18 **-0.11** PEFO1 2018 1.782 0.813 15.94 4.67 **4.62** -0.18 **-0.11** SAGU1 2018 2.275 0.929 20.13 7.00 **6.93** -0.22 **-0.11** SAWE1 2018 2.555 0.799 22.97 8.32 **8.23** -0.25 **-0.11** SIAN1 2018 1.871 0.594 17.90 5.82 **5.78** -0.18 **-0.10** SYCA1 2018 1.707 1.131 17.33 5.50 **5.39** -0.18 **-0.10** TONT1 2018 2.383 0.734 18.51 6.15 **6.09** -0.23 **-0.12**



### FIP**BART and RP source controls**  **Arizona only is assumed to contribute**  **CMAQ RRFs used: W20/B20 days in each month ("monthly weighted")**

Emissions SO2 NOx FIP ch. -29638 -33214Change from BART and RP controls, rel. corresp. CMAQ CMAQ 76697 223138Arizona and neighboring states scaling factor0.61356290.8511486ratio of change to total **Worst 20% of days** scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr.Change rel. CMAQ 2018 Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg.chg.b_total chg.dv BALD1 2018 3.364 0.895 32.77 11.87 **10.91** -2.28 **-0.62**CHIR1 2018 4.755 0.872 36.52 12.95 **12.55** -3.15 **-0.80**

GRCA2 2018 2.688 1.695 30.91 11.28 **10.55** -1.99 **-0.58** IKBA1 2018 3.289 2.213 34.33 12.34 **12.09** -2.46 **-0.68** PEFO1 2018 3.443 1.250 36.57 12.97 **12.17** -2.39 **-0.59** SAGU1 2018 4.057 4.370 43.11 14.61 **14.10** -3.32 **-0.72** SAWE1 2018 3.961 3.784 48.98 15.89 **15.38** -3.16 **-0.60** SIAN1 2018 3.431 1.158 36.81 13.03 **12.57** -2.36 **-0.60** SYCA1 2018 2.463 1.548 44.29 14.88 **14.60** -1.82 **-0.40** TONT1 2018 3.830 2.471 38.89 13.58 **13.16** -2.84 **-0.68**

**Best 20% of days** scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr.Change rel. CMAQ 2018 Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg.chg.b_total chg.dv BALD1 2018 0.915 0.339 12.74 2.42 **2.38** -0.64 **-0.48** CHIR1 2018 1.468 0.390 15.52 4.39 **4.29** -0.99 **-0.61** GRCA2 2018 0.832 0.442 11.82 1.67 **1.63** -0.60 **-0.48** IKBA1 2018 1.240 0.665 15.99 4.69 **4.64** -0.90 **-0.54** PEFO1 2018 1.193 0.705 15.25 4.22 **4.18** -0.87 **-0.55** SAGU1 2018 1.523 0.805 19.25 6.55 **6.49** -1.10 **-0.55** SAWE1 2018 1.710 0.692 22.02 7.89 **7.81** -1.20 **-0.52** SIAN1 2018 1.252 0.515 17.20 5.42 **5.39** -0.88 **-0.49** SYCA1 2018 1.142 0.981 16.61 5.08 **4.98** -0.89 **-0.51** TONT1 2018 1.595 0.636 17.62 5.66 **5.61** -1.12 **-0.61**Tables for different Emission reductions scenarios are arranged from left to right (BART+RP; BART only) Tables for different Assumed contributing emission are arranged from top to bottom (AZ+neighboring states; AZ only)



### FIP**BART controls only**  **Arizona and neighboring states are assumed to contribute**  **CMAQ RRFs used: W20/B20 days in each month ("monthly weighted")**

Emissions SO2 NOx FIP ch. -29638 -26408Change from BART and RP controls, rel. corresp. CMAQ CMAQ 355902 1855258Arizona and neighboring states scaling factor0.91672310.9857658ratio of change to total **Worst 20% of days** scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr.Change rel. CMAQ 2018 Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv BALD1 2018 5.026 1.037 34.57 12.41 **11.40** -0.47 **-0.12** CHIR1 2018 7.105 1.010 39.01 13.61 **13.19** -0.66 **-0.16** GRCA2 2018 4.016 1.963 32.50 11.79 **11.03** -0.39 **-0.11** IKBA1 2018 4.915 2.563 36.31 12.90 **12.63** -0.48 **-0.13** PEFO1 2018 5.144 1.447 38.47 13.47 **12.64** -0.49 **-0.12** SAGU1 2018 6.062 5.061 45.80 15.22 **14.69** -0.62 **-0.13** SAWE1 2018 5.918 4.383 51.53 16.40 **15.88** -0.60 **-0.11** SIAN1 2018 5.127 1.341 38.68 13.53 **13.05** -0.49 **-0.12** SYCA1 2018 3.681 1.792 45.75 15.21 **14.92** -0.36 **-0.08** TONT1 2018 5.722 2.861 41.17 14.15 **13.72** -0.56 **-0.13**

**Best 20% of days** scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr.Change rel. CMAQ 2018 Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv BALD1 2018 1.367 0.393 13.25 2.81 **2.76** -0.13 **-0.10** CHIR1 2018 2.194 0.452 16.30 4.89 **4.77** 16.30 **4.77** GRCA2 2018 1.243 0.511 12.30 2.07 **2.02** 12.30 **2.02** IKBA1 2018 1.852 0.770 16.70 5.13 **5.07** 16.70 **5.07** PEFO1 2018 1.782 0.816 15.95 4.67 **4.63** 15.95 **4.63** SAGU1 2018 2.275 0.932 20.13 7.00 **6.93** 20.13 **6.93** SAWE1 2018 2.555 0.802 22.97 8.32 **8.23** 22.97 **8.23** SIAN1 2018 1.871 0.596 17.90 5.82 **5.78** 17.90 **5.78** SYCA1 2018 1.707 1.136 17.33 5.50 **5.39** 17.33 **5.39** TONT1 2018 2.383 0.736 18.51 6.16 **6.10** 18.51 **6.10**



### FIP**BART controls only**  **Arizona only is assumed to contribute**  **CMAQ RRFs used: W20/B20 days in each month ("monthly weighted")**

Emissions SO2 NOx FIP ch. -29638 -26408Change from BART and RP controls, rel. corresp. CMAQ CMAQ 76697 223138Arizona and neighboring states scaling factor0.61356290.8816511ratio of change to total **Worst 20% of days** scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr.Change rel. CMAQ 2018 Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv BALD1 2018 3.364 0.927 32.80 11.88 **10.92** -2.24 **-0.61**CHIR1 2018 4.755 0.903 36.55 12.96 **12.56** -3.12 **-0.79**

GRCA2 2018 2.688 1.755 30.97 11.30 **10.57** -1.93 **-0.56** IKBA1 2018 3.289 2.292 34.41 12.36 **12.11** -2.38 **-0.66** PEFO1 2018 3.443 1.294 36.61 12.98 **12.18** -2.34 **-0.58** SAGU1 2018 4.057 4.526 43.26 14.65 **14.13** -3.16 **-0.68** SAWE1 2018 3.961 3.920 49.11 15.91 **15.41** -3.02 **-0.58** SIAN1 2018 3.431 1.200 36.85 13.04 **12.58** -2.32 **-0.59** SYCA1 2018 2.463 1.603 44.34 14.89 **14.61** -1.77 **-0.38** TONT1 2018 3.830 2.559 38.98 13.60 **13.19** -2.76 **-0.66**

**Best 20% of days** scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr.Change rel. CMAQ 2018 Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv BALD1 2018 0.915 0.351 12.75 2.43 **2.39** -0.62 **-0.47** CHIR1 2018 1.468 0.404 15.53 4.40 **4.30** -0.98 **-0.60** GRCA2 2018 0.832 0.457 11.83 1.68 **1.64** -0.59 **-0.47** IKBA1 2018 1.240 0.689 16.01 4.71 **4.65** -0.87 **-0.52** PEFO1 2018 1.193 0.730 15.27 4.23 **4.20** -0.85 **-0.54** SAGU1 2018 1.523 0.834 19.28 6.57 **6.50** -1.07 **-0.54** SAWE1 2018 1.710 0.717 22.04 7.90 **7.82** -1.17 **-0.51** SIAN1 2018 1.252 0.533 17.22 5.43 **5.40** -0.86 **-0.48** SYCA1 2018 1.142 1.016 16.65 5.10 **5.00** -0.86 **-0.49** TONT1 2018 1.595 0.659 17.64 5.68 **5.62** -1.09 **-0.60**Tables for different Assumed contributing emission are arranged from top to bottom (AZ+neighboring states; AZ only)

Checks uncorrected for dv avg. RP effectBART+RP RP RP effect chg.dv chg. dv chg. dv chg.dv -0.001 -0.14 -0.14 -0.001 -0.001 -0.17 -0.17 -0.001 -0.002 -0.12 -0.12 -0.002 -0.003 -0.13 -0.13 -0.003 -0.001 -0.13 -0.13 -0.001 -0.004 -0.14 -0.14 -0.004 -0.003 -0.12 -0.12 -0.003 -0.001 -0.13 -0.12 -0.001 -0.001 -0.08 -0.08 -0.001 -0.003 -0.14 -0.14 -0.003

uncorrected for dv avg. RP effectBART+RP RP RP effect chg.dv chg. dv chg. dv chg.dv -0.001 -0.10 -0.10 -0.001 -0.001 -0.13 -0.13 -0.001 -0.002 -0.10 -0.10 -0.002 -0.002 -0.11 -0.11 -0.002 -0.002 -0.11 -0.11 -0.002 -0.002 -0.11 -0.11 -0.002 -0.001 -0.11 -0.11 -0.001 -0.001 -0.10 -0.10 -0.001 -0.002 -0.10 -0.10 -0.002 -0.001 -0.12 -0.12 -0.001

### Arizona Class I Areas Visibility Baseline and 2018 Reasonable Progress Goals, deciviews

**Worst 20% of days**

code Class I Area IMPROVE monitor code 2000-2004 baseline 2064

natural conditions2018 URP2018 projection by WRAP 2008-2012

monitoredFIP effectFIP 2018 RPG Years to reach natural conditions chir Chiricahua NM CHIR1 13.43 7.20 11.98 13.35 11.8 -0.16 13.19 367 chrw Chiricahua Wild. CHIR1 13.43 7.20 11.98 13.35 11.8 -0.16 13.19 367 gali Galiuro Wild. CHIR1 13.43 7.20 11.98 13.35 11.8 -0.16 13.19 367 grca Grand Canyon NP GRCA2 11.66 7.04 10.58 11.14 11.0 -0.11 11.02 101
maza Mazatzal Wild. IKBA1 13.35 6.68 11.79 12.76 12.3 -0.13 12.63 131 mobaMount Baldy Wild. BALD1 11.95 6.39 10.65 11.52 11.5 -0.13 11.40 141 pefo Petrified Forest NP PEFO1 13.21 6.49 11.64 12.76 12.3 -0.12 12.64 165 pimo Pine Mountain Wild. IKBA1 13.35 6.68 11.79 12.76 12.3 -0.13 12.63 131 sagu Saguaro NP east SAGU1 14.83 6.46 12.88 14.82 12.7 -0.13 14.68 767 sagu Saguaro NP west SAWE1 16.22 6.24 13.90 15.99 14.2 -0.12 15.87 397 sian Sierra Ancha Wild. SIAN1 13.67 6.59 12.02 13.17 12.3 -0.12 13.05 159 supe Superstition Wild. TONT1 14.16 6.61 12.40 13.85 12.9 -0.13 13.72 237 syca Sycamore Canyon Wild. SYCA1 15.25 6.65 13.25 15.00 14.9 -0.08 14.92 360 average -0.13
**Best 20% of days**

code Class I Area IMPROVE monitor code 2000-2004 baseline 2064

natural conditions2018

projection by WRAP 2008-2012

monitoredFIP effect FIP 2018 RPG Degradation? chir Chiricahua NM CHIR1 4.91 1.83 4.90 4.0 -0.12 4.77 No chrw Chiricahua Wild. CHIR1 4.91 1.83 4.90 4.0 -0.12 4.77 No gali Galiuro Wild. CHIR1 4.91 1.83 4.90 4.0 -0.12 4.77 No grca Grand Canyon NP GRCA2 2.16 0.31 2.12 1.8 -0.10 2.02 No
maza Mazatzal Wild. IKBA1 5.40 1.91 5.17 4.4 -0.11 5.07 No mobaMount Baldy Wild. BALD1 2.98 0.46 2.86 2.7 -0.10 2.76 No pefo Petrified Forest NP PEFO1 5.02 1.07 4.73 4.1 -0.11 4.62 No pimo Pine Mountain Wild. IKBA1 5.40 1.91 5.17 4.4 -0.11 5.07 No sagu Saguaro NP east SAGU1 6.94 2.23 7.04 6.0 -0.11 6.93 No sagu Saguaro NP west SAWE1 8.58 2.50 8.34 7.5 -0.11 8.23 No sian Sierra Ancha Wild. SIAN1 6.16 2.03 5.88 5.1 -0.10 5.78 No supe Superstition Wild. TONT1 6.46 2.09 6.22 5.4 -0.12 6.09 No syca Sycamore Canyon Wild. SYCA1 5.58 0.98 5.49 5.1 -0.10 5.39 No

### Abbreviations, constants, lookup tables

SIP values copied from AZ_natl_background_URP_rev130423.xls!SIP, then sorted by IMPROVE code for use in VLOOKUP() Used to look up IMPROVE site for FRN table sorted by Class I area 

### name: SIP_dv_table 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

IMPROVE SIP W20 base SIP W20 2018 URPSIP W20

2018 projected (RPG) SIP B20

base SIP B20 2018

projected (RPG)SIP Years

to natl B20

natural BALD1 11.85 10.54 11.52 2.98 2.86 234 0.51 CHIR1 13.43 11.98 13.35 4.91 4.94 1038 1.83 GRCA2 11.66 10.58 11.14 2.16 2.12 125 0.31 IKBA1 13.35 11.79 12.76 5.4 5.17 159 1.91 PEFO1 13.21 11.64 12.85 5.02 4.73 258 1.07 SAGU1 14.83 12.88 14.82 6.94 7.04 8370 2.23 SAWE1 16.22 13.9 15.99 8.58 8.34 624 2.50 SIAN1 13.67 12.02 13.17 6.16 5.88 197 2.03 SYCA1 15.25 13.25 15 5.58 5.49 478 0.98 TONT1 14.16 12.38 13.89 6.46 6.22 401 2.03 SIP table: Tbl 6.3 Tbl 6.3 Tbl 6.3 Tbl 6.3 Tbl 6.3 Tbl 11.9 NCII_VS ng10

**name: sitelist** IMPROVE siteabbrs Class I areas bAero = sum of bext from species components, exlcuding bext fom Rayleigh BALD1 moba Mount Baldy Wild. CHIR1 chrw, chir, gali Chiricahua NM, Chiricahua Wild., Galiuro Wild. **Species in IMPROVE equation** GRCA2 grca Grand Canyon NP ammSO4 IKBA1 maza, pimo Mazatzal Wild., Pine Mountain Wild. ammNO3 PEFO1 pefo Petrified Forest NP OMC SAGU1 sagu Saguaro NP EC SAWE1 sagu Saguaro NP, western unit Soil SIAN1 sian Sierra Ancha Wild. CM SYCA1 syca Sycamore Canyon Wild. SeaSalt TONT1 supe Superstition Wild. R Value to use for division by zero in ratios

**divz** #N/A for empty but not zero, use: ="" could use =NA() to get #N/A, or use =1/0 to get #DIV/0!
SReg region abbreviations Emission source categories **name: sregs name: emcats**  AZ Arizona abbr PSAT category Inventory categories CA California PT Point Point CO Colorado AF Anthro. Fires Anthro Fire ID Idaho MV Mobile On-Road Mobile + Off-Road MobileMT Montana Nat Nat. Fires & Bio.Natural Fires + Biogenic

NV Nevada Area Area Area + WRAP Area O&G NM New Mexico OD Outside Domain ND North Dakota OR Oregon SD South Dakota AZ neighbors = CA+CO+NV+NM+UT UT Utah WA Washington WY Wyoming CAN Canada CEN CENRAP EUS Eastern U.S. MEX Mexico OD Outside Domain PO Pacific Offshore srefs and emcats are used to help look up emissions, using MATCH() to give offset for row or column number for INDEX()

### SIP values copied from AZ_natl_background_URP_rev130423.xls!SIP, then sorted by IMPROVE code for use in VLOOKUP() Monitored data from TSS: 5-year average dv -- note these are only 1 decimal place **name: TSS_mon_dv** VLOOKUP() offset for column W20 W20 W20 W20 B20

Site 2000-2004

Baseline 2005-2009

Progress2007-2011

Progress2008-2012

Progress 2000-2004

Baseline BALD1 11.8 11.8 11.5 11.5 3.0 CHIR1 13.4 12.2 11.9 11.8 4.9 GRCA2 11.7 12 11.5 11 2.2 IKBA1 13.3 13.4 12.6 12.3 5.4 PEFO1 13.2 13 12.4 12.3 5.0 SAGU1 14.8 13.6 13.1 12.7 6.9 SAWE1 16.2 14.9 14.3 14.2 8.6 SIAN1 13.7 13 12.4 12.3 6.2 SYCA1 15.3 15.2 15 14.9 5.6 TONT1 14.2 13.8 13.2 12.9 6.5 

### NCII_VS ng10

bAero = sum of bext from species components, exlcuding bext fom Rayleigh
**Species in IMPROVE equation**

ammonium sulfate ammonium nitrate organic carbon elemental carbon fine soil
coarse mass sea salt Rayleigh extinction, scattering in clean air

abbr pt af On-Road Mobile + Off-Road Mobile nfb3
ar og mb
nr td wb

srefs and emcats are used to help look up emissions, using MATCH() to give offset for row or column number for INDEX()Monitored data from TSS: 5-year average dv -- note these are only 1 decimal place

B20 B20 B20 TSS "Base2005" (monitored 2005-2009 average) dv

2005-2009 Progress 2007-2011

Progress 2008-2012

Progress Site W20 Base2005 (mon. 2005- 09 avg) dvB20

Base2005 (mon. 2005- 09 avg) dv 2.9 2.8 2.7 BALD1 11.7900792.9092319 4.4 3.9 4.0 CHIR1 12.2158074.3808603 2.2 1.9 1.8 GRCA2 11.9698992.1586256 5.1 4.5 4.4 IKBA1 13.4029055.0651455 4.6 4.3 4.1 PEFO1 13.0217794.6190672 6.7 6.1 6.0 SAGU1 13.6316026.7373438 8.0 7.5 7.5 SAWE1 14.8612578.0399828 5.3 5.2 5.1 SIAN1 13.0169925.3088355 5.1 4.8 5.1 SYCA1 15.1801985.1454201 5.7 5.4 5.4 TONT1 13.814035.6994691