Researcher

This study was performed by

John A. Volpe National

Transportation Systems Center,

Cambridge MA 02142,

PPA#HW-788.

Distribution

This Analysis Brief is being 

distributed according to a 

standard distribution. Direct

distribution is being made to

the Resource Centers and

Divisions.

Availability

The study final report will be

available from the National

Technical Information Service,

Telephone: (703) 605-6000.

Key Words

prequalification, qualification,

SafeStat, safety learning curve,

Safety Evaluation Areas, 

stakeholders.

Notice

This Analysis Brief is disseminated under the sponsorship 

of the Department of

Transportation in the interest

of information exchange. The

Analysis Brief provides a 

synopsis of the study’s final

publication. The Analysis Brief

does not establish policies or

regulations, nor does it imply

FHWA endorsement of the 

conclusions or recommendations. The U.S. Government

assumes no liability for its 

contents or their use.

regulations from compliance reviews (CRs). The study used data from 23,016 CRs that

were conducted between October 1, 1994 (when acute/critical regulations were first

used to evaluate the five regulatory factors in a CR) and June 2, 1997 (the latest data

available at the time this study was conducted). The data were broken out according to

the age of the carrier at the time of the review. The age of the carrier was calculated

from the date that the carrier’s Form MCS-150 information was entered into the

MCMIS Census File. The data were broken out into 11 groups, based on the age of the

carrier at the time of time of the review:

(X = Age of carrier at review)

0<X< 1 Less than or equal to 1 year

1<X< 2 Greater than 1 year and less than or equal to 2 years ...

9<X<10 Greater than 9 years and less than or equal to 10 years

10<X Greater than 10 years

The data were also broken out by SafeStat Safety Evaluation Area (SEA), either Driver

or Safety Management. For each SEA/age group combination, the average number of

violations of acute regulations per thousand interstate drivers and the average number

of patterns of violations of critical regulations per thousand interstate drivers were 

calculated. The results for the Driver SEA are shown in Figures 5 and 6. The results for

the Safety Management SEA are shown in Figures 7 and 8. 

The results show a substantial age-related pattern of compliance, i.e., the numbers of

violations of acute regulations and patterns of violations of critical regulations in both

SEAs were substantially higher for new entrants than for more experienced carriers.

Furthermore, the rates declined in steady progression across age groups, showing clear

evidence of a safety regulation compliance learning curve.

Further Research

What can be done to assist new entrants in their efforts to improve their compliance

with the FMCSRs? OMCHS is researching the development of a New Entrant Program,

which would consist of two stages: prequalification and qualification. In the prequalification stage, a new carrier would receive educational material and then apply for 

both a USDOT number and “prequalified” status. The application would include an

examination to measure the carrier’s knowledge of the FMCSRs and applicable

Hazardous Materials Regulations. Successful completion of these requirements would

result in the issuance of a USDOT number and eligibility for the qualification stage. 

In the qualification stage, the carrier would be monitored by SafeStat, using safety 

performance data from roadside inspections and crash reports. The carrier would also

be subject to more intense surveillance than established carriers. After two years, a 

prequalified new entrant would be considered to be an established carrier. In addition,

whenever sufficient safety performance data have been collected and analyzed by

SafeStat, the carrier would receive an assessment of its safety status.

Reference

Thomas M. Corsi and Philip Fanara, Jr., “Deregulation, New Entrants, and the Safety

Learning Curve,” Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Vol. XXIX, No.1, 1988,

pp. 3–8.

March 1999

Publication No. FHWA-MCRT-99-009
This investigation examines the need for and the possible elements of a program to improve the safety

performance and regulatory compliance of new

entrants. It focuses specifically on regulatory compliance and crash rates as they relate to a motor carrier’s

time in interstate operations.

Methodology

This study revisited the 1988 Corsi-Fanara analysis, 

this time using the markedly improved safety 

performance data now available in the Motor Carrier

Management Information System (MCMIS), and

expanding the coverage to include all carriers, not

just the ICC-regulated (for-hire) carriers included in

the original study. 

Researchers performed two analyses to confirm the

existence of a safety performance (i.e., crash rate)

learning curve, and one study to confirm the existence of a safety regulation compliance learning

curve. In all three analyses, the age of the carrier was

calculated from the date that the carrier’s USDOT 

registration Form MCS-150 information was entered

into the MCMIS Census File. This date was used as the

best available approximation of the date that the 

carrier began interstate operations.

Findings

The Compliance Review Crash Rate Analysis used

data from compliance reviews that were conducted

between April 1993 (when the USDOT definition of a

crash changed) and June 1997 (the latest data available at the time this study was conducted). The data

were broken out according to the age of the carrier

at the time of the review. Weighted mean, or overall,

crash rates [recordable crashes per million vehicle

miles traveled (VMT) weighted by VMT] were calculated for each age group. This calculation is equivalent

Compliance Review Crash Rate Analysis

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1–3

Years

3–5

Years

5–6

Years

6–8

Years

> 8

Years

0.758 0.725

0.818

0.749

0.673

Age of Carrier

Crashes per Million VMT

Figure 1

Overall Crash Rate by Age of Carrier

All Carriers (23,575 CRs)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1–2

Years

2–5

Years

5–6

Years

6–8

Years

> 8

Years

0.777

0.713

0.787

0.728

0.66

Age of Carrier

Crashes per Million VMT

Figure 2

Overall Crash Rate by Age of Carrier

Authorized For-Hire Carriers (11,023 CRs)

State-Reported MCMIS-NGA Crash Rate Analysis

Crashes per Million VMT

’95 ’94–’93 ’92–’90 ’89–’88 ’87 and

before

Year of Registration with USDOT

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.00

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.0302

0.0357

0.0311

0.0268

0.0326

Figure 3

Overall Crash Rate by Year of Regisration 

with USDOT

All Carriers (28,507 Carriers)

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

Crashes per Million VMT

’95–’93 ’92–’90 ’89 ’88–’87 ’86 and

before

Year of Registration with USDOT

0.0442 0.0416 0.039

0.0458

0.0369

Figure 4

Overall Crash Rate by Year of Regisration 

with USDOT

Authorized For-Hire Carriers (12,620 Carriers)
This investigation examines the need for and the possible elements of a program to improve the safety

performance and regulatory compliance of new

entrants. It focuses specifically on regulatory compliance and crash rates as they relate to a motor carrier’s

time in interstate operations.

Methodology

This study revisited the 1988 Corsi-Fanara analysis, 

this time using the markedly improved safety 

performance data now available in the Motor Carrier

Management Information System (MCMIS), and

expanding the coverage to include all carriers, not

just the ICC-regulated (for-hire) carriers included in

the original study. 

Researchers performed two analyses to confirm the

existence of a safety performance (i.e., crash rate)

learning curve, and one study to confirm the existence of a safety regulation compliance learning

curve. In all three analyses, the age of the carrier was

calculated from the date that the carrier’s USDOT 

registration Form MCS-150 information was entered

into the MCMIS Census File. This date was used as the

best available approximation of the date that the 

carrier began interstate operations.

Findings

The Compliance Review Crash Rate Analysis used

data from compliance reviews that were conducted

between April 1993 (when the USDOT definition of a

crash changed) and June 1997 (the latest data available at the time this study was conducted). The data

were broken out according to the age of the carrier

at the time of the review. Weighted mean, or overall,

crash rates [recordable crashes per million vehicle

miles traveled (VMT) weighted by VMT] were calculated for each age group. This calculation is equivalent

Compliance Review Crash Rate Analysis

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1–3

Years

3–5

Years

5–6

Years

6–8

Years

> 8

Years

0.758 0.725

0.818

0.749

0.673

Age of Carrier

Crashes per Million VMT

Figure 1

Overall Crash Rate by Age of Carrier

All Carriers (23,575 CRs)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1–2

Years

2–5

Years

5–6

Years

6–8

Years

> 8

Years

0.777

0.713

0.787

0.728

0.66

Age of Carrier

Crashes per Million VMT

Figure 2

Overall Crash Rate by Age of Carrier

Authorized For-Hire Carriers (11,023 CRs)

State-Reported MCMIS-NGA Crash Rate Analysis

Crashes per Million VMT

’95 ’94–’93 ’92–’90 ’89–’88 ’87 and

before

Year of Registration with USDOT

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.00

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.0302

0.0357

0.0311

0.0268

0.0326

Figure 3

Overall Crash Rate by Year of Regisration 

with USDOT

All Carriers (28,507 Carriers)

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

Crashes per Million VMT

’95–’93 ’92–’90 ’89 ’88–’87 ’86 and

before

Year of Registration with USDOT

0.0442 0.0416 0.039

0.0458

0.0369

Figure 4

Overall Crash Rate by Year of Regisration 

with USDOT

Authorized For-Hire Carriers (12,620 Carriers)
Researcher

This study was performed by

John A. Volpe National

Transportation Systems Center,

Cambridge MA 02142,

PPA#HW-788.

Distribution

This Analysis Brief is being 

distributed according to a 

standard distribution. Direct

distribution is being made to

the Resource Centers and

Divisions.

Availability

The study final report will be

available from the National

Technical Information Service,

Telephone: (703) 605-6000.

Key Words

prequalification, qualification,

SafeStat, safety learning curve,

Safety Evaluation Areas, 

stakeholders.

Notice

This Analysis Brief is disseminated under the sponsorship 

of the Department of

Transportation in the interest

of information exchange. The

Analysis Brief provides a 

synopsis of the study’s final

publication. The Analysis Brief

does not establish policies or

regulations, nor does it imply

FHWA endorsement of the 

conclusions or recommendations. The U.S. Government

assumes no liability for its 

contents or their use.

regulations from compliance reviews (CRs). The study used data from 23,016 CRs that

were conducted between October 1, 1994 (when acute/critical regulations were first

used to evaluate the five regulatory factors in a CR) and June 2, 1997 (the latest data

available at the time this study was conducted). The data were broken out according to

the age of the carrier at the time of the review. The age of the carrier was calculated

from the date that the carrier’s Form MCS-150 information was entered into the

MCMIS Census File. The data were broken out into 11 groups, based on the age of the

carrier at the time of time of the review:

(X = Age of carrier at review)

0<X< 1 Less than or equal to 1 year

1<X< 2 Greater than 1 year and less than or equal to 2 years ...

9<X<10 Greater than 9 years and less than or equal to 10 years

10<X Greater than 10 years

The data were also broken out by SafeStat Safety Evaluation Area (SEA), either Driver

or Safety Management. For each SEA/age group combination, the average number of

violations of acute regulations per thousand interstate drivers and the average number

of patterns of violations of critical regulations per thousand interstate drivers were 

calculated. The results for the Driver SEA are shown in Figures 5 and 6. The results for

the Safety Management SEA are shown in Figures 7 and 8. 

The results show a substantial age-related pattern of compliance, i.e., the numbers of

violations of acute regulations and patterns of violations of critical regulations in both

SEAs were substantially higher for new entrants than for more experienced carriers.

Furthermore, the rates declined in steady progression across age groups, showing clear

evidence of a safety regulation compliance learning curve.

Further Research

What can be done to assist new entrants in their efforts to improve their compliance

with the FMCSRs? OMCHS is researching the development of a New Entrant Program,

which would consist of two stages: prequalification and qualification. In the prequalification stage, a new carrier would receive educational material and then apply for 

both a USDOT number and “prequalified” status. The application would include an

examination to measure the carrier’s knowledge of the FMCSRs and applicable

Hazardous Materials Regulations. Successful completion of these requirements would

result in the issuance of a USDOT number and eligibility for the qualification stage. 

In the qualification stage, the carrier would be monitored by SafeStat, using safety 

performance data from roadside inspections and crash reports. The carrier would also

be subject to more intense surveillance than established carriers. After two years, a 

prequalified new entrant would be considered to be an established carrier. In addition,

whenever sufficient safety performance data have been collected and analyzed by

SafeStat, the carrier would receive an assessment of its safety status.

Reference

Thomas M. Corsi and Philip Fanara, Jr., “Deregulation, New Entrants, and the Safety

Learning Curve,” Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Vol. XXIX, No.1, 1988,

pp. 3–8.

March 1999

Publication No. FHWA-MCRT-99-009