Arizona Class I Areas FIP Reasonable Progress Goal (RPG) Estimates sjb 2014-06-16

 via scaling 2018 Modeled Extinction (bext) by FIP emissions changes

FIP SO2 and NOx emissions change relative to total emissions are used to scale 2018 modeled SO4 and NO3 extinction.

Deciviews is calculated from total extinction sum, and scaled by a factor to reflect average after vs. before dv calc.

WRAP projections used are from CMAQ 2000-04 Baseline (plan02d_rev) & 2018 PRPb (prp18b)

Sheet Description

notes Notes on RPG estimation methodology

emis_work Emissions work area, and Scaling Factors

emis18 2018 modeled emissions, and various ratios

CMAQ_Rmo_2018 2018 modeled bext, monthly RRFs ("Rmo")

RPG_Rmo FIP RPG calculation, monthly RRFs

FRN_tables_Rmo RPG tables intended for FRN, monthly RRFs

lookups Lookup tables, abbreviations, selected CAMx PSAT results
Description of method used to estimate FIP 2018 Reasonable Progress Goals (RPGs)

HI RH RPG method at TSD p.66 (pdf.71)

Scale species extinction by corresponding change in emissions; species-specific rollback

1. Start with base year monitored extinction

Monitored base year "2005" (5-year average of 2000-2004?) extinction by species

SO4, NO3, EC, OC, (fine) Soil, Coarse Mass (CM), Sea Salt (SS)

(appears to have omitted Raleigh extinction, which should also be held constant)

2. Assume all constant except species affected by FIP: SO4 & NO3

3. Scale anthropogenic fraction of b_SO4 and b_NO3 by 2018/2005 emissions change

(for both 2018 without FIP, and 2018 with FIP controls)

b_SO4_2018 = b_SO4_2005 * biog_frac 

+ b_SO4_2005 * anthro_frac * (2018 SOx emissions / 2005 SOx emissions)

Similar for b_NO3

Use Class I area-specific emissions, i.e. emissions from island area is on

Not sure where biogenic and anthropogenic assumed fractions came from

4. Compute deciviews from dv = 10*ln(b/10)

b = Sum(b_species) + b_Rayleigh

for monitored ("2005"), 2018 w/o FIP, 2018 w/FIP

Application of Hawaii-like method to Arizona

Use WRAP 2018 projected extinction (preliminary RPGs) as starting point, instead of measured base year;

this includes effect of SIP (CMAQ with prp18b emissions; "prp18" = Prelim RP for 2018)

Apply FIP NOx and SOx emissions changes (ratio of post-FIP 2018 emissions to pre-FIP 2018 emissions) to nitrate and sulfate 

Note that the emission change is the change relative to the emissions used in the WRAP inventory (the ones used to make th

 and *not* the within-FIP benefit of control

Thus for a given facility, the change in emissions E

is not: E(FIP controlled) - E(EPA base case)

but rather: E(FIP controlled) - E(WRAP 2018 case)

Total FIP emissions change including all facilities j = 

WRAP emissions total + Sum{post-FIP emissions j} - Sum{WRAP 2018 emissions j}

Hawaii RH FIP proposal: 77 FR 31692, May 29, 2012, "Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of Hawaii; R

Implementation Plan; Proposed Rule" (docket EPA-R09-OAR-2012-0345) TSD file: "A-3 HI-RH-TSD-v3.pdf"
Ratio to apply to extinctions is this divided by WRAP total

scaling factor = 1 + (facility FIP emissions - facility WRAP emissions)/(WRAP emissions)

 = 1 + ("FIP change")/(WRAP emissions)

Since the scaling factors are applied to average extinction (average over W20 or B20 days), whereas really want average deci

(average of deciviews computed for each individual W20 or B20 day), to account for the difference between

dv = average(10*log(bext/10)) and dv = 10*log((average bext)/10, an additional factor is applied, dv_TSS / dv_Calc from bext

to get dv corrected for averaging ("dv corr. for avg.")

Since we don't have island/Class I area-specific inventories to use in the scaling as were used for Hawaii, 

 here used emissions from Arizona plus neighboring states.
red base year;

emissions) to nitrate and sulfate extinction

entory (the ones used to make the 2018 projection)

entation Plans; State of Hawaii; Regional Haze Federal 

-TSD-v3.pdf"
whereas really want average deciviews

ference between

plied, dv_TSS / dv_Calc from bext

d for Hawaii, 
Emissions work area emissions in tons/yr

Subcategory emissions changes preparation

Note: APS FCPP is in New Mexico; all other sources are in Arizona

italics = same as prp18b

Facilities affected by EPA Regional Haze FIPs

Facility ST AZ / Navajo BART / RP SO2 NOx SO2 NOx

AEPCO Apache 2,3 AZ AZ FIP BART 2231 6782.1 2231 845

APS Cholla 2,3,4 AZ AZ FIP BART 7992 10700 7992 2153

SRP Coronado 2 AZ AZ FIP BART 4468 12936.8 4468 1912

TEP Sundt 4 AZ AZ FIP BART 1005 2705.3 536 917

Lhoist Nelson Kilns 1,2 AZ AZ FIP BART 1385.7 93.1 3046 984

ASARCO Hayden Smelter AZ AZ FIP BART 27009.7 87.9 2280 86

FMMI Miami Smelter AZ AZ FIP BART 10368 464.6 4268 464.6

APS Cholla 1 AZ AZ FIP RP 1335 1305 1335 1032

TEP Springerville 1,2 AZ AZ FIP RP 7691.0 6524.4 7691.0 4,612

Phoenix Cement Plant Kiln 4 AZ AZ FIP RP 394.6 3445.4 394.6 648.4

CalPortland Cement Plant Kilns 1,2,3,4 AZ AZ FIP RP 133.2 4430.9 133.2 2607.0

SRP Navajo Generating Station AZ Navajo FIP BART 8376.9 10610.6 8376.9 7657.3

APS Four Corners Power Plant NM Navajo FIP BART 17946.5 17265.8 17946.5 9026

CMAQ prp18b post-FIP
(Below are various sums of the above; lines with Scen # can be as used in scenarios elsewhere)

RPG Scenario Emissions for Facilities affected by EPA Regional Haze FIPs

Scen # Facility Subtotals ST AZ / Navajo BART / RP SO2 NOx SO2 NOx

Navajo BART FIP AZ Navajo FIP BART 8376.9 10610.6 8376.9 7657.328

Navajo BART FIP NM Navajo FIP BART 17946.5 17265.8 17946.5 9026

AZ FIP BART Phase 1 AZ AZ FIP BART 14691 30418.85 14691 4910

AZ FIP BART Phase 3 AZ AZ FIP BART 39768.41 3350.901 10130 2451.628

11 AZ FIP BART AZ AZ FIP BART 54459.41 33769.76 24821 7361.628

AZ FIP RP EGUs AZ AZ FIP RP 9025.964 7829.448 9025.964 5644

AZ FIP RP Cement AZ AZ FIP RP 527.8 7876.222 527.761 3255.4

AZ FIP RP EGUs & Cement AZ AZ FIP RP 9553.7 15705.67 9553.725 8899

12 AZ FIP BART & RP EGUs AZ AZ FIP BART & RP 63485.38 41599.2 33846.96 13005.63

13 AZ FIP BART & RP EGUs; and Navajo FIPs AZ Both FIPs BART & RP 71862.28 52209.8 42223.86 20662.96

13 AZ FIP BART & RP EGUs; and Navajo FIPs NM Both FIPs BART & RP 17946.5 17265.8 17946.5 9026

14 AZ FIP BART & RP EGUs & Cement AZ AZ FIP BART & RP 64013.1 49475.43 34374.72 16261

15 BART & RP EGUs & Cement; and Navajo FIPs AZ Both FIPs BART & RP 72390.04 60086.03 42751.62 23918.36

15 BART & RP EGUs & Cement; and Navajo FIPs NM Both FIPs BART & RP 17946.5 17265.8 17946.5 9026

20 AZ FIP BART and Navajo FIPs AZ Both FIPs BART 62836.31 44380.36 33197.9 15018.96

20 AZ FIP BART and Navajo FIPs NM Both FIPs BART 17946.5 17265.8 17946.5 9026

Apache, Cholla, Coronado

Arizona FIP phase 1 NPR, 77 FR 72512, December 5, 2012

SRP Navajo Generating Station

NGS NPR, 78 FR 8274, February 5, 2013

docket "NGS emissions and incremental costs.xlsx", 'Avg 2001-03' sheet

LNB + SOFA + SCR (Units 1 – 3)

(Option 4) Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3

Avg Heat Input (2001-2003) 7616.0 8120.3 7913.2 MMBtu/hr

Avg operating hours (01-03) 8006.5 8420.4 7845.1 hrs/yr

NOx emissions at SCR 0.08 lb/MMBtu 2439.1 2735.0 2483.2 tons/year

sum 7657.3

CMAQ prp18b post-FIP
APS Four Corners Power Plant

FCCP Supplemental NPR, 76 FR 10530, February 25, 2011

p.10536, Table 4, Comparison of NOx Emissions (tons) Based on EPA BART Proposal and the Alternative Emission Control Strategy

Alternative emission control strategy, entry for 2019 and beyond: 9026 tpy NOx
ame as prp18b

Source for post-FIP emissions; orig. October 2013, updated May 2014

Phase 1 NPR, p.72538 Table 5, SCR Emissions 431+414 NOx

Phase 1 NPR, p.72548 Table 11, for SCR w/LNB+OFA 602+655+896 NOx

Phase 1 NPR, p.72560 Table 16 for SCR w/LNB+OFA 794 NOx, and p.72556 

Table 14 for SCR w/LNB+OFA w/ low load temp ctrl 1118 NOx

79 FR 9328, Table 7 and 12, DSI and SNCR+LNB+OFA (gives base as 2145 

SO2, 1310 NOx)

79 FR 9338, Tables 21 and 23. Low-S fuel table 1205+1841 and SNCR table 

491+493 (gave base 1571+2400=3971 SO2 and 981+985=1996 NOx)

Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table III.D-3, Baseline emissions

Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Page 65 of 133, Tons SO2 controlled (base 22621 SO2, 

86 NOx; SO2 reduction 20341)

draft "BART Analysis of Control Options for Freeport Draft 2013 08 27 

(CW).docx" fug. -13689 and ELF -247 SO2; "Freeport SO2 Emissions 2013-08-

22.xlsx" has fug. 2010: 16626 SO2; acid plant 1201; ELF 377

Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table IV.D-3, LNB+OFA (baseline) emissions of 1032 tpy 

NOx

Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table IV.D-3, LNB+OFA (baseline) emissions of 

2819+2422=4612 NOx

Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table IV.C-8: SNCR (gives base as 648.4/50% = 1296.8 

NOx) (AZ-Source-Summary gives base = 1620 NOx)

Kiln 1-3, Phase 3 NPRM, TSD Table IV.B-10, no controls, 3*626 tpy

Kiln 4, Table IV.B-11, SNCR but at 35% instead of 50% ctrl eff, 729 tpy

NPR docket "NGS emissions and incremental costs.xlsx"

Supplemental NPR, Table 4, for 2018

Emissions used in scaling

Emissions from WRAP 2018 CMAQ prp18b

Emissions subset SO2
CMAQ total 12527551

AZ & neighbors 355902

AZ & non-CA neighbors 290295

FIP emission change Arizona 76697

SO2 NOx AZ & neighbor points 280538

AZ & non-CA neighbor points 238606

AZ points 67429

Used scenario 11 (FIP BART) -29638.41 -26408.13

incl. AZ & NM change: both NGS & FCPP : -29638.41 -39786.65

Used scenario 14 (FIP BART+RP) -29638.41 -33214.4

Scen. 15 AZ BART & RP; and NGS & FCPP :

Scen. 20 AZ BART; and NGS & FCPP :
ontrol Strategy
MAQ prp18b

NOx References to CMAQ emissions rows and columns in sheet 'emis18', for checking emission subset formulas
17107280 Columns PT AF MV Nat Area sum

1855258 SO2

CDEFG I

1141502 NOx

MNOPQS

223138 non-California neigbors

500213 Rows AZ CA CO NV NM UT total

390923 61 62 63 66 67 71 80

68748
Modeled Emissions - 2018 emissions in tons/yr

2018 CMAQ emissions (with optional alternative growth factor)

WRAP inventory totals from http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/Results/HazePlanning.aspx, 2013-08-12

Sheet contains: prp18b tables from TSS; alt. growth factor table; prp18b with alt. growth factor

Enter ratio of revised 2018 emissions to prp18b emissions (initially all 1).

SO2 from TSS

CMAQ Ei, prp18b

TSS SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum

AZ 67429.45 181.436 1308.2675 4369.271 3408.17 76696.595

CA 41931.77 413.022 3623.6275 9839.516 9799.04 65606.976

CO 44057.63 79.331 939.1275 2541.936 7500.79 55118.815

ID 9378.38 353.22 278.3425 10764.66 3053.29 23827.893

MT 36697.08 230.898 255.4875 3655.342 3430.47 44269.278

NV 60678.88 80.6 129.9875 194.798 5857.64 66941.906

NM 31011.62 60.815 370.1325 2312.758 15778.49 49533.816

ND 41698.58 10.893 547.195 2200.169 14194.22 58651.057

OR 10176.04 1321.817 613.2875 7328.667 8421.85 27861.662

SD 11986.46 2.673 158.2325 362.411 1662.54 14172.317

UT 35428.45 54.465 520.3125 2417.719 3582.8 42003.747

WA 25181.61 1043.382 940.785 1640.788 8576.28 37382.845

WY 96809.16 108.952 145.1875 2286.244 23096.58 122446.12

CAN 1946919 0 9025.51 0 189675.45 2145620

CEN 1869451.1 3485.674 27654.165 0 335860.88 2236451.8

EUS 5793106.2 7380.404 86611.998 0 793054.47 6680153.1

MEX 761755.26 0 3108.54 0 15949.8 780813.6

PO

OD

total 10883697 14807.582 136230.19 49914.279 1442902.8 12527551

SO2 factor Used in estimating CMAQ Ci below

Alternative growth factor, to apply to above prp18b

manual SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum

AZ 1 1 1 1 1

CA 1 1 1 1 1

CO 1 1 1 1 1

ID 1 1 1 1 1

MT 1 1 1 1 1

NV 1 1 1 1 1

NM 1 1 1 1 1

ND 1 1 1 1 1

OR 1 1 1 1 1

SD 1 1 1 1 1

UT 1 1 1 1 1

WA 1 1 1 1 1
WY 1 1 1 1 1

CAN 1 1 1 1 1

CEN 1 1 1 1 1

EUS 1 1 1 1 1

MEX 1 1 1 1 1

PO

OD

total

SO2 Used for emission ratio below, and also for emis_scen

CMAQ Ei, prp18b with alt.growth factor name: CMAQ_SO2

product SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum

AZ 67429.45 181.436 1308.2675 4369.271 3408.17 76696.595

CA 41931.77 413.022 3623.6275 9839.516 9799.04 65606.976

CO 44057.63 79.331 939.1275 2541.936 7500.79 55118.815

ID 9378.38 353.22 278.3425 10764.66 3053.29 23827.893

MT 36697.08 230.898 255.4875 3655.342 3430.47 44269.278

NV 60678.88 80.6 129.9875 194.798 5857.64 66941.906

NM 31011.62 60.815 370.1325 2312.758 15778.49 49533.816

ND 41698.58 10.893 547.195 2200.169 14194.22 58651.057

OR 10176.04 1321.817 613.2875 7328.667 8421.85 27861.662

SD 11986.46 2.673 158.2325 362.411 1662.54 14172.317

UT 35428.45 54.465 520.3125 2417.719 3582.8 42003.747

WA 25181.61 1043.382 940.785 1640.788 8576.28 37382.845

WY 96809.16 108.952 145.1875 2286.244 23096.58 122446.12

CAN 1946919 0 9025.51 0 189675.45 2145620

CEN 1869451.1 3485.674 27654.165 0 335860.88 2236451.8

EUS 5793106.2 7380.404 86611.998 0 793054.47 6680153.1

MEX 761755.26 0 3108.54 0 15949.8 780813.6

PO

OD

total 10883697 14807.582 136230.19 49914.279 1442902.8 12527551
NOx

CMAQ Ei, prp18b

SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum

AZ 68748.38 675.629 96756.995 44158.29078 12798.68 223137.98

CA 109289.44 2768.071 410872.16 93043.07658 97783.69 713756.44

CO 101817.89 406.198 83165.223 46646.23887 49848.86 281884.41

ID 12056.42 1679.798 29560.695 56258.24859 42067.63 141622.79

MT 33505.21 856.224 54090.773 72021.65872 19403.67 179877.54

NV 68615.38 298.549 39462.803 45335.3544 33320.12 187032.21

NM 73412.34 261.871 48217.323 50708.08988 108567.47 281167.09

ND 58749.01 40.6 35157.495 23044.05208 7503.42 124494.58

OR 22292.3 5150.067 72315.695 43927.28826 17022.86 160708.21

SD 30184.86 20.062 31843.758 54511.70507 3860.14 120420.52

UT 78329.37 228.247 53493.9 21470.15125 14758.2 168279.87

WA 44206.24 4971.253 99116.205 23919.96686 21861.28 194074.95

WY 110109.22 483.525 59404.72 24296.73257 53805.34 248099.54

CAN 667659.04 0 733678.61 254936.7 469055.13 2125329.5

CEN 1526753.7 4191.02 1049356.3 624566.9153 730160.01 3935027.9

EUS 3361449.1 30549.81 2488210.1 332287.4534 809241.73 7021738.2

MEX 437951.72 0 255662.45 274630.3058 32384.1 1000628.6

PO

OD

total 6805129.6 52580.924 5640365.2 2085762.228 2523442.3 17107280

NOx factor

Alternative growth factor, to apply to above prp18b

SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum

AZ 1 1 1 1 1

CA 1 1 1 1 1

CO 1 1 1 1 1

ID 1 1 1 1 1

MT 1 1 1 1 1

NV 1 1 1 1 1

NM 1 1 1 1 1

ND 1 1 1 1 1

OR 1 1 1 1 1

SD 1 1 1 1 1

UT 1 1 1 1 1

WA 1 1 1 1 1
WY 1 1 1 1 1

CAN 1 1 1 1 1

CEN 1 1 1 1 1

EUS 1 1 1 1 1

MEX 1 1 1 1 1

PO

OD

total

NOx

CMAQ Ei, prp18b with alt.growth factor name: CMAQ_NOx

SReg PT AF MV Nat Area OD sum

AZ 68748.38 675.629 96756.995 44158.29078 12798.68 223137.98

CA 109289.44 2768.071 410872.16 93043.07658 97783.69 713756.44

CO 101817.89 406.198 83165.223 46646.23887 49848.86 281884.41

ID 12056.42 1679.798 29560.695 56258.24859 42067.63 141622.79

MT 33505.21 856.224 54090.773 72021.65872 19403.67 179877.54

NV 68615.38 298.549 39462.803 45335.3544 33320.12 187032.21

NM 73412.34 261.871 48217.323 50708.08988 108567.47 281167.09

ND 58749.01 40.6 35157.495 23044.05208 7503.42 124494.58

OR 22292.3 5150.067 72315.695 43927.28826 17022.86 160708.21

SD 30184.86 20.062 31843.758 54511.70507 3860.14 120420.52

UT 78329.37 228.247 53493.9 21470.15125 14758.2 168279.87

WA 44206.24 4971.253 99116.205 23919.96686 21861.28 194074.95

WY 110109.22 483.525 59404.72 24296.73257 53805.34 248099.54

CAN 667659.04 0 733678.61 254936.7 469055.13 2125329.5

CEN 1526753.7 4191.02 1049356.3 624566.9153 730160.01 3935027.9

EUS 3361449.1 30549.81 2488210.1 332287.4534 809241.73 7021738.2

MEX 437951.72 0 255662.45 274630.3058 32384.1 1000628.6

PO

OD

total 6805129.6 52580.924 5640365.2 2085762.228 2523442.3 17107280
2018 Projected Extinction (bext) on Best and Worst 20% days

Arizona Class I area IMPROVE monitors

From WRAP TSS. Retrieved June 2014

CMAQ scenario: 2000-04 Baseline (plan02d_rev) & 2018 PRPb (prp18b)

Using "monthly" RRFs, computed from monthly averages of W20 or B20 days, TSS option "Monthly Weighted"

from TSS Haze Planning, Modeling, "Aux Data" tables, "PROJ" 1-line table

Worst 20% of days

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 bOMC bEC bSoil bCM bSs bRay

BALD1 2018 5.483 1.052 12.630 2.563 1.445 2.830 0.043 9

CHIR1 2018 7.750 1.024 7.420 1.458 3.280 8.632 0.104 10

GRCA2 2018 4.381 1.991 10.382 2.069 1.449 3.491 0.135 9

IKBA1 2018 5.361 2.600 7.593 1.769 3.177 6.217 0.076 10

PEFO1 2018 5.611 1.468 10.801 2.407 2.338 7.303 0.029 9

SAGU1 2018 6.612 5.134 9.886 2.221 5.342 7.051 0.180 10

SAWE1 2018 6.456 4.446 7.788 2.353 8.046 12.778 0.265 10

SIAN1 2018 5.592 1.361 11.617 1.998 2.622 5.913 0.066 10

SYCA1 2018 4.015 1.818 11.513 2.535 7.721 9.385 0.122 9

TONT1 2018 6.242 2.903 10.102 1.946 3.034 7.400 0.105 10

Best 20% of days

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 bOMC bEC bSoil bCM bSs bRay

BALD1 2018 1.491 0.398 1.218 0.505 0.296 0.464 0.003 9

CHIR1 2018 2.393 0.459 1.420 0.578 0.425 1.220 0.014 10

GRCA2 2018 1.356 0.519 0.626 0.292 0.162 0.446 0.018 9

IKBA1 2018 2.021 0.782 1.869 0.629 0.524 1.041 0.019 10

PEFO1 2018 1.944 0.828 1.902 1.022 0.456 0.963 0.006 9

SAGU1 2018 2.482 0.946 2.306 0.872 1.808 1.826 0.113 10

SAWE1 2018 2.787 0.813 2.833 1.305 2.196 3.133 0.150 10

SIAN1 2018 2.041 0.605 2.929 1.063 0.466 0.936 0.039 10

SYCA1 2018 1.862 1.152 2.463 1.158 0.808 1.034 0.028 9

TONT1 2018 2.599 0.747 2.390 0.736 0.716 1.504 0.043 10

bold = referred to in RPG calc. sheet(s)

b_other = b_total less bSO4 and bNO3

dvTSS / dvCalc = scale correction for avg.{dv(bext)} / dv(avg.{bext})

from TSS SIP RPG d(TSS-SIP) rnd2

b_other b_total dv dv

28.51 35.05 12.54 11.523 0.919 11.52 0.00

30.89 39.67 13.78 13.353 0.969 13.35 0.00

26.53 32.90 11.91 11.137 0.935 11.14 0.00

28.83 36.79 13.03 12.765 0.980 12.76 0.00

31.88 38.96 13.60 12.762 0.938 12.85 -0.09

34.68 46.43 15.35 14.816 0.965 14.82 0.00

41.23 52.13 16.51 15.988 0.968 15.99 0.00

32.22 39.17 13.65 13.167 0.964 13.17 0.00

40.28 46.11 15.28 14.998 0.981 15.00 0.00

32.59 41.73 14.29 13.849 0.969 13.89 -0.04

from TSS

b_other b_total dv dv

11.49 13.38 2.91 2.859 0.983 2.86 0.00

13.66 16.51 5.01 4.897 0.977 4.94 -0.04

10.54 12.42 2.17 2.116 0.977 2.12 0.00

14.08 16.88 5.24 5.175 0.988 5.17 0.00

13.35 16.12 4.78 4.734 0.991 4.73 0.00

16.92 20.35 7.11 7.038 0.990 7.04 0.00

19.62 23.22 8.42 8.338 0.990 8.34 0.00

15.43 18.08 5.92 5.882 0.993 5.88 0.00

14.49 17.50 5.60 5.489 0.980 5.49 0.00

15.39 18.74 6.28 6.217 0.990 6.22 0.00

calculated from b's

calculated from b's

dvTSS / 

dvCalc

dvTSS / 

dvCalc

2018 Projected Extinction (bext) on Best and Worst 20% days, Arizona IMPROVE monitors

Scale SO4 and NO3 bext from sheet 'CMAQ_Rmo_2018' by emissions scenario scaling factor

FIP BART and RP source controls

Arizona and neighboring states are assumed to contribute

CMAQ RRFs used: W20/B20 days in each month ("monthly weighted")

Emissions SO2 NOx

FIP ch. -29638 -33214 Change from BART and RP controls, rel. corresp. CMAQ

CMAQ 355902 1855258 Arizona and neighboring states

scaling factor 0.9167231 0.9820972 ratio of change to total

Worst 20% of days

scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr. Change rel. CMAQ 2018

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv

BALD1 2018 5.026 1.033 34.57 12.40 11.40 -0.48 -0.13

CHIR1 2018 7.105 1.006 39.00 13.61 13.19 -0.66 -0.16

GRCA2 2018 4.016 1.955 32.50 11.79 11.02 -0.40 -0.11

IKBA1 2018 4.915 2.553 36.30 12.89 12.63 -0.49 -0.13

PEFO1 2018 5.144 1.442 38.46 13.47 12.64 -0.49 -0.12

SAGU1 2018 6.062 5.042 45.78 15.21 14.68 -0.64 -0.13

SAWE1 2018 5.918 4.367 51.51 16.39 15.87 -0.62 -0.12

SIAN1 2018 5.127 1.336 38.68 13.53 13.05 -0.49 -0.12

SYCA1 2018 3.681 1.786 45.74 15.20 14.92 -0.37 -0.08

TONT1 2018 5.722 2.851 41.16 14.15 13.72 -0.57 -0.13

Best 20% of days

scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr. Change rel. CMAQ 2018

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv

BALD1 2018 1.367 0.391 13.25 2.81 2.76 -0.13 -0.10

CHIR1 2018 2.194 0.450 16.30 4.89 4.77 -0.21 -0.12

GRCA2 2018 1.243 0.509 12.30 2.07 2.02 -0.12 -0.10

IKBA1 2018 1.852 0.768 16.70 5.13 5.07 -0.18 -0.11

PEFO1 2018 1.782 0.813 15.94 4.67 4.62 -0.18 -0.11

SAGU1 2018 2.275 0.929 20.13 7.00 6.93 -0.22 -0.11

SAWE1 2018 2.555 0.799 22.97 8.32 8.23 -0.25 -0.11

SIAN1 2018 1.871 0.594 17.90 5.82 5.78 -0.18 -0.10

SYCA1 2018 1.707 1.131 17.33 5.50 5.39 -0.18 -0.10

TONT1 2018 2.383 0.734 18.51 6.15 6.09 -0.23 -0.12

FIP BART and RP source controls

Arizona only is assumed to contribute

CMAQ RRFs used: W20/B20 days in each month ("monthly weighted")

Emissions SO2 NOx

FIP ch. -29638 -33214 Change from BART and RP controls, rel. corresp. CMAQ

CMAQ 76697 223138 Arizona and neighboring states

scaling factor 0.6135629 0.8511486 ratio of change to total

Worst 20% of days

scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr. Change rel. CMAQ 2018

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv

BALD1 2018 3.364 0.895 32.77 11.87 10.91 -2.28 -0.62
CHIR1 2018 4.755 0.872 36.52 12.95 12.55 -3.15 -0.80

GRCA2 2018 2.688 1.695 30.91 11.28 10.55 -1.99 -0.58

IKBA1 2018 3.289 2.213 34.33 12.34 12.09 -2.46 -0.68

PEFO1 2018 3.443 1.250 36.57 12.97 12.17 -2.39 -0.59

SAGU1 2018 4.057 4.370 43.11 14.61 14.10 -3.32 -0.72

SAWE1 2018 3.961 3.784 48.98 15.89 15.38 -3.16 -0.60

SIAN1 2018 3.431 1.158 36.81 13.03 12.57 -2.36 -0.60

SYCA1 2018 2.463 1.548 44.29 14.88 14.60 -1.82 -0.40

TONT1 2018 3.830 2.471 38.89 13.58 13.16 -2.84 -0.68

Best 20% of days

scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr. Change rel. CMAQ 2018

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv

BALD1 2018 0.915 0.339 12.74 2.42 2.38 -0.64 -0.48

CHIR1 2018 1.468 0.390 15.52 4.39 4.29 -0.99 -0.61

GRCA2 2018 0.832 0.442 11.82 1.67 1.63 -0.60 -0.48

IKBA1 2018 1.240 0.665 15.99 4.69 4.64 -0.90 -0.54

PEFO1 2018 1.193 0.705 15.25 4.22 4.18 -0.87 -0.55

SAGU1 2018 1.523 0.805 19.25 6.55 6.49 -1.10 -0.55

SAWE1 2018 1.710 0.692 22.02 7.89 7.81 -1.20 -0.52

SIAN1 2018 1.252 0.515 17.20 5.42 5.39 -0.88 -0.49

SYCA1 2018 1.142 0.981 16.61 5.08 4.98 -0.89 -0.51

TONT1 2018 1.595 0.636 17.62 5.66 5.61 -1.12 -0.61
Tables for different Emission reductions scenarios are arranged from left to right (BART+RP; BART only)

Tables for different Assumed contributing emission are arranged from top to bottom (AZ+neighboring states; AZ only)

FIP BART controls only

Arizona and neighboring states are assumed to contribute

CMAQ RRFs used: W20/B20 days in each month ("monthly weighted")

Emissions SO2 NOx

FIP ch. -29638 -26408 Change from BART and RP controls, rel. corresp. CMAQ

CMAQ 355902 1855258 Arizona and neighboring states

scaling factor 0.9167231 0.9857658 ratio of change to total

Worst 20% of days

scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr. Change rel. CMAQ 2018

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv

BALD1 2018 5.026 1.037 34.57 12.41 11.40 -0.47 -0.12

CHIR1 2018 7.105 1.010 39.01 13.61 13.19 -0.66 -0.16

GRCA2 2018 4.016 1.963 32.50 11.79 11.03 -0.39 -0.11

IKBA1 2018 4.915 2.563 36.31 12.90 12.63 -0.48 -0.13

PEFO1 2018 5.144 1.447 38.47 13.47 12.64 -0.49 -0.12

SAGU1 2018 6.062 5.061 45.80 15.22 14.69 -0.62 -0.13

SAWE1 2018 5.918 4.383 51.53 16.40 15.88 -0.60 -0.11

SIAN1 2018 5.127 1.341 38.68 13.53 13.05 -0.49 -0.12

SYCA1 2018 3.681 1.792 45.75 15.21 14.92 -0.36 -0.08

TONT1 2018 5.722 2.861 41.17 14.15 13.72 -0.56 -0.13

Best 20% of days

scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr. Change rel. CMAQ 2018

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv

BALD1 2018 1.367 0.393 13.25 2.81 2.76 -0.13 -0.10

CHIR1 2018 2.194 0.452 16.30 4.89 4.77 16.30 4.77

GRCA2 2018 1.243 0.511 12.30 2.07 2.02 12.30 2.02

IKBA1 2018 1.852 0.770 16.70 5.13 5.07 16.70 5.07

PEFO1 2018 1.782 0.816 15.95 4.67 4.63 15.95 4.63

SAGU1 2018 2.275 0.932 20.13 7.00 6.93 20.13 6.93

SAWE1 2018 2.555 0.802 22.97 8.32 8.23 22.97 8.23

SIAN1 2018 1.871 0.596 17.90 5.82 5.78 17.90 5.78

SYCA1 2018 1.707 1.136 17.33 5.50 5.39 17.33 5.39

TONT1 2018 2.383 0.736 18.51 6.16 6.10 18.51 6.10

FIP BART controls only

Arizona only is assumed to contribute

CMAQ RRFs used: W20/B20 days in each month ("monthly weighted")

Emissions SO2 NOx

FIP ch. -29638 -26408 Change from BART and RP controls, rel. corresp. CMAQ

CMAQ 76697 223138 Arizona and neighboring states

scaling factor 0.6135629 0.8816511 ratio of change to total

Worst 20% of days

scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr. Change rel. CMAQ 2018

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv

BALD1 2018 3.364 0.927 32.80 11.88 10.92 -2.24 -0.61
CHIR1 2018 4.755 0.903 36.55 12.96 12.56 -3.12 -0.79

GRCA2 2018 2.688 1.755 30.97 11.30 10.57 -1.93 -0.56

IKBA1 2018 3.289 2.292 34.41 12.36 12.11 -2.38 -0.66

PEFO1 2018 3.443 1.294 36.61 12.98 12.18 -2.34 -0.58

SAGU1 2018 4.057 4.526 43.26 14.65 14.13 -3.16 -0.68

SAWE1 2018 3.961 3.920 49.11 15.91 15.41 -3.02 -0.58

SIAN1 2018 3.431 1.200 36.85 13.04 12.58 -2.32 -0.59

SYCA1 2018 2.463 1.603 44.34 14.89 14.61 -1.77 -0.38

TONT1 2018 3.830 2.559 38.98 13.60 13.19 -2.76 -0.66

Best 20% of days

scaled scaled calculated from b's dv corr. Change rel. CMAQ 2018

Site Year bSO4 bNO3 b_total dv for avg. chg.b_total chg.dv

BALD1 2018 0.915 0.351 12.75 2.43 2.39 -0.62 -0.47

CHIR1 2018 1.468 0.404 15.53 4.40 4.30 -0.98 -0.60

GRCA2 2018 0.832 0.457 11.83 1.68 1.64 -0.59 -0.47

IKBA1 2018 1.240 0.689 16.01 4.71 4.65 -0.87 -0.52

PEFO1 2018 1.193 0.730 15.27 4.23 4.20 -0.85 -0.54

SAGU1 2018 1.523 0.834 19.28 6.57 6.50 -1.07 -0.54

SAWE1 2018 1.710 0.717 22.04 7.90 7.82 -1.17 -0.51

SIAN1 2018 1.252 0.533 17.22 5.43 5.40 -0.86 -0.48

SYCA1 2018 1.142 1.016 16.65 5.10 5.00 -0.86 -0.49

TONT1 2018 1.595 0.659 17.64 5.68 5.62 -1.09 -0.60
ng states; AZ only)

Checks

uncorrected for dv avg.

RP effect BART+RP RP RP effect

chg.dv chg. dv chg. dv chg.dv

-0.001 -0.14 -0.14 -0.001

-0.001 -0.17 -0.17 -0.001

-0.002 -0.12 -0.12 -0.002

-0.003 -0.13 -0.13 -0.003

-0.001 -0.13 -0.13 -0.001

-0.004 -0.14 -0.14 -0.004

-0.003 -0.12 -0.12 -0.003

-0.001 -0.13 -0.12 -0.001

-0.001 -0.08 -0.08 -0.001

-0.003 -0.14 -0.14 -0.003

uncorrected for dv avg.

RP effect BART+RP RP RP effect

chg.dv chg. dv chg. dv chg.dv

-0.001 -0.10 -0.10 -0.001

-0.001 -0.13 -0.13 -0.001

-0.002 -0.10 -0.10 -0.002

-0.002 -0.11 -0.11 -0.002

-0.002 -0.11 -0.11 -0.002

-0.002 -0.11 -0.11 -0.002

-0.001 -0.11 -0.11 -0.001

-0.001 -0.10 -0.10 -0.001

-0.002 -0.10 -0.10 -0.002

-0.001 -0.12 -0.12 -0.001
Arizona Class I Areas Visibility Baseline and 2018 Reasonable Progress Goals, deciviews

Worst 20% of days

code Class I Area

IMPROVE 

monitor 

code

2000-2004 

baseline

2064 

natural 

conditions 2018 URP

2018 

projection 

by WRAP

2008-2012 

monitored FIP effect FIP 2018 RPG

Years to reach 

natural 

conditions

chir Chiricahua NM CHIR1 13.43 7.20 11.98 13.35 11.8 -0.16 13.19 367

chrw Chiricahua Wild. CHIR1 13.43 7.20 11.98 13.35 11.8 -0.16 13.19 367

gali Galiuro Wild. CHIR1 13.43 7.20 11.98 13.35 11.8 -0.16 13.19 367

grca Grand Canyon NP GRCA2 11.66 7.04 10.58 11.14 11.0 -0.11 11.02 101

maza Mazatzal Wild. IKBA1 13.35 6.68 11.79 12.76 12.3 -0.13 12.63 131

moba Mount Baldy Wild. BALD1 11.95 6.39 10.65 11.52 11.5 -0.13 11.40 141

pefo Petrified Forest NP PEFO1 13.21 6.49 11.64 12.76 12.3 -0.12 12.64 165

pimo Pine Mountain Wild. IKBA1 13.35 6.68 11.79 12.76 12.3 -0.13 12.63 131

sagu Saguaro NP east SAGU1 14.83 6.46 12.88 14.82 12.7 -0.13 14.68 767

sagu Saguaro NP west SAWE1 16.22 6.24 13.90 15.99 14.2 -0.12 15.87 397

sian Sierra Ancha Wild. SIAN1 13.67 6.59 12.02 13.17 12.3 -0.12 13.05 159

supe Superstition Wild. TONT1 14.16 6.61 12.40 13.85 12.9 -0.13 13.72 237

syca Sycamore Canyon Wild. SYCA1 15.25 6.65 13.25 15.00 14.9 -0.08 14.92 360

average -0.13

Best 20% of days

code Class I Area

IMPROVE 

monitor 

code

2000-2004 

baseline

2064 

natural 

conditions

2018 

projection 

by WRAP

2008-2012 

monitored FIP effect

FIP 2018 

RPG Degradation?

chir Chiricahua NM CHIR1 4.91 1.83 4.90 4.0 -0.12 4.77 No

chrw Chiricahua Wild. CHIR1 4.91 1.83 4.90 4.0 -0.12 4.77 No

gali Galiuro Wild. CHIR1 4.91 1.83 4.90 4.0 -0.12 4.77 No

grca Grand Canyon NP GRCA2 2.16 0.31 2.12 1.8 -0.10 2.02 No

maza Mazatzal Wild. IKBA1 5.40 1.91 5.17 4.4 -0.11 5.07 No

moba Mount Baldy Wild. BALD1 2.98 0.46 2.86 2.7 -0.10 2.76 No

pefo Petrified Forest NP PEFO1 5.02 1.07 4.73 4.1 -0.11 4.62 No

pimo Pine Mountain Wild. IKBA1 5.40 1.91 5.17 4.4 -0.11 5.07 No

sagu Saguaro NP east SAGU1 6.94 2.23 7.04 6.0 -0.11 6.93 No

sagu Saguaro NP west SAWE1 8.58 2.50 8.34 7.5 -0.11 8.23 No

sian Sierra Ancha Wild. SIAN1 6.16 2.03 5.88 5.1 -0.10 5.78 No

supe Superstition Wild. TONT1 6.46 2.09 6.22 5.4 -0.12 6.09 No

syca Sycamore Canyon Wild. SYCA1 5.58 0.98 5.49 5.1 -0.10 5.39 No
Abbreviations, constants, lookup tables

SIP values copied from AZ_natl_background_URP_rev130423.xls!SIP, then sorted by IMPROVE code for use in VLOOKUP()

Used to look up IMPROVE site for FRN table sorted by Class I area

name: SIP_dv_table

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

IMPROVE SIP W20 base

SIP W20 

2018 URP

SIP W20 

2018 

projected 

(RPG)

SIP B20 

base

SIP B20 2018 

projected (RPG)

SIP Years 

to natl

B20 

natural

BALD1 11.85 10.54 11.52 2.98 2.86 234 0.51

CHIR1 13.43 11.98 13.35 4.91 4.94 1038 1.83

GRCA2 11.66 10.58 11.14 2.16 2.12 125 0.31

IKBA1 13.35 11.79 12.76 5.4 5.17 159 1.91

PEFO1 13.21 11.64 12.85 5.02 4.73 258 1.07

SAGU1 14.83 12.88 14.82 6.94 7.04 8370 2.23

SAWE1 16.22 13.9 15.99 8.58 8.34 624 2.50

SIAN1 13.67 12.02 13.17 6.16 5.88 197 2.03

SYCA1 15.25 13.25 15 5.58 5.49 478 0.98

TONT1 14.16 12.38 13.89 6.46 6.22 401 2.03

SIP table: Tbl 6.3 Tbl 6.3 Tbl 6.3 Tbl 6.3 Tbl 6.3 Tbl 11.9 NCII_VS ng10

name: sitelist

IMPROVE site abbrs Class I areas bAero = sum of bext from specie

BALD1 moba Mount Baldy Wild.

CHIR1 chrw, chir, gali Chiricahua NM, Chiricahua Wild., Galiuro Wild. Species in IMPROVE equation

GRCA2 grca Grand Canyon NP ammSO4

IKBA1 maza, pimo Mazatzal Wild., Pine Mountain Wild. ammNO3

PEFO1 pefo Petrified Forest NP OMC

SAGU1 sagu Saguaro NP EC

SAWE1 sagu Saguaro NP, western unit Soil

SIAN1 sian Sierra Ancha Wild. CM

SYCA1 syca Sycamore Canyon Wild. SeaSalt

TONT1 supe Superstition Wild. R

Value to use for division by zero in ratios

divz #N/A

 for empty but not zero, use: =""

 could use =NA() to get #N/A, or use =1/0 to get #DIV/0!

SReg region abbreviations Emission source categories

name: sregs name: emcats

AZ Arizona abbr PSAT category Inventory categories

CA California PT Point Point

CO Colorado AF Anthro. Fires Anthro Fire

ID Idaho MV Mobile On-Road Mobile + Off-Road Mobile
MT Montana Nat Nat. Fires & Bio. Natural Fires + Biogenic

NV Nevada Area Area Area + WRAP Area O&G

NM New Mexico OD Outside Domain

ND North Dakota

OR Oregon

SD South Dakota AZ neighbors = CA+CO+NV+NM+UT

UT Utah

WA Washington

WY Wyoming

CAN Canada

CEN CENRAP

EUS Eastern U.S.

MEX Mexico

OD Outside Domain

PO Pacific Offshore

srefs and emcats are used to help look up emissions, using MATCH() to give offset for row or column number for INDEX()
ode for use in VLOOKUP()

Monitored data from TSS: 5-year average dv -- note these are only 1 decimal place

name: TSS_mon_dv

VLOOKUP() offset for column W20 W20 W20 W20 B20

Site

2000-2004 

Baseline

2005-2009 

Progress

2007-2011 

Progress

2008-2012 

Progress

2000-2004 

Baseline

BALD1 11.8 11.8 11.5 11.5 3.0

CHIR1 13.4 12.2 11.9 11.8 4.9

GRCA2 11.7 12 11.5 11 2.2

IKBA1 13.3 13.4 12.6 12.3 5.4

PEFO1 13.2 13 12.4 12.3 5.0

SAGU1 14.8 13.6 13.1 12.7 6.9

SAWE1 16.2 14.9 14.3 14.2 8.6

SIAN1 13.7 13 12.4 12.3 6.2

SYCA1 15.3 15.2 15 14.9 5.6

TONT1 14.2 13.8 13.2 12.9 6.5

NCII_VS ng10

bAero = sum of bext from species components, exlcuding bext fom Rayleigh

Species in IMPROVE equation

ammonium sulfate

ammonium nitrate

organic carbon

elemental carbon

fine soil

coarse mass

sea salt

Rayleigh extinction, scattering in clean air

abbr

pt

af

obile + Off-Road Mobile nf
b3

ar

og

mb

nr

td

wb

er for INDEX()
e only 1 decimal place

B20 B20 B20 TSS "Base2005" (monitored 2005-2009 average) dv

2005-2009 

Progress

2007-2011 

Progress

2008-2012 

Progress Site

W20 

Base2005 

(mon. 2005-

09 avg) dv

B20 

Base2005 

(mon. 2005-

09 avg) dv

2.9 2.8 2.7 BALD1 11.790079 2.9092319

4.4 3.9 4.0 CHIR1 12.215807 4.3808603

2.2 1.9 1.8 GRCA2 11.969899 2.1586256

5.1 4.5 4.4 IKBA1 13.402905 5.0651455

4.6 4.3 4.1 PEFO1 13.021779 4.6190672

6.7 6.1 6.0 SAGU1 13.631602 6.7373438

8.0 7.5 7.5 SAWE1 14.861257 8.0399828

5.3 5.2 5.1 SIAN1 13.016992 5.3088355

5.1 4.8 5.1 SYCA1 15.180198 5.1454201

5.7 5.4 5.4 TONT1 13.81403 5.6994691